A Digital Map From External Forcing to the Final Surface Warming Pattern and its Seasonal Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, M.

2015-12-01

Historically, only the thermodynamic processes (e.g., water vapor, cloud, surface albedo, and atmospheric lapse rate) that directly influence the top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative energy flux balance are considered in climate feedback analysis. One of my recent research areas is to develop a new framework for climate feedback analysis that explicitly takes into consideration not only the thermodynamic processes that the directly influence the TOA radiative energy flux balance but also the local dynamical (e.g., evaporation, surface sensible heat flux, vertical convections etc) and non-local dynamical (large-scale horizontal energy transport) processes in aiming to explain the warming asymmetry between high and low latitudes, between ocean and land, and between the surface and atmosphere. In the last 5-6 years, we have developed a coupled atmosphere-surface climate feedback-response analysis method (CFRAM) as a new framework for estimating climate feedback and sensitivity in coupled general circulation models with a full physical parameterization package. In the CFRAM, the isolation of partial temperature changes due to an external forcing alone or an individual feedback is achieved by solving the linearized infrared radiation transfer model subject to individual energy flux perturbations (external or due to feedbacks). The partial temperature changes are addable and their sum is equal to the (total) temperature change (in the linear sense). The CFRAM is used to isolate the partial temperature changes due to the external forcing, due to water vapor feedback, clouds, surface albedo, local vertical convection, and non-local atmospheric dynamical feedbacks, as well as oceanic heat storage. It has been shown that seasonal variations in the cloud feedback, surface albedo feedback, and ocean heat storage/dynamics feedback, directly caused by the strong annual cycle of insolation, contribute primarily to the large seasonal variation of polar warming. Furthermore, the CO2 forcing, and water vapor and atmospheric dynamics feedbacks add to the maximum polar warming in fall/winter.

Aerosol reductions could dominate regional climate responses in low GHG emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samset, B. H.; Sand, M.; Smith, C. J.; Bauer, S.; Forster, P.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Osprey, S. M.; Schleussner, C. F.

2017-12-01

Limiting global warming to current political goals requires strong, rapid mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline sharply, due to co-emission with greenhouse gases, and future measures to improve air quality. As the net climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained, predicting the impact of strong aerosol emission reductions remains challenging. Here we investigate the isolated and compound climate impacts from removing present day anthropogenic emissions of black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and SO2, and moderate, near term GHG dominated global warming, using four coupled climate models. As the dominating effect of aerosol emission reduction is a removal of cooling from sulphur, the resulting climate impacts amplify those of GHG induced warming. BC emissions contribute little to reducing surface warming, but have stronger regional impacts. For the major aerosol emission regions, extreme weather indices are more sensitive to aerosol removal than to GHG increases, per degree of surface warming. East Asia in particular stands out, mainly due to the high present regional aerosol emissions. We show how present climate models indicate that future regional climate change will depend strongly on changes in loading and distribution of aerosols in the atmosphere, in addition to surface temperature change.

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.

PubMed

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-05-12

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming

PubMed Central

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-01-01

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical–ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean−atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes. PMID:25902494

A reduction in the asymmetry of ENSO amplitude due to global warming: The role of atmospheric feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun

2017-08-01

This study analyzes a reduction in the asymmetry of El Niño Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude due to global warming in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. The multimodel-averaged Niño3 skewness during December-February season decreased approximately 40% in the RCP4.5 scenario compared to that in the historical simulation. The change in the nonlinear relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation is a key factor for understanding the reduction in ENSO asymmetry due to global warming. In the historical simulations, the background SST leading to the greatest precipitation sensitivity (SST for Maximum Precipitation Sensitivity, SST_MPS) occurs when the positive SST anomaly is located over the equatorial central Pacific. Therefore, an increase in climatological SST due to global warming weakens the atmospheric response during El Niño over the central Pacific. However, the climatological SST over this region in the historical simulation is still lower than the SST_MPS for the negative SST anomaly; therefore, a background SST increase due to global warming can further increase precipitation sensitivity. The atmospheric feedbacks during La Niña are enhanced and increase the La Niña amplitude due to global warming.

Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth's energy imbalance.

PubMed

Drijfhout, Sybren

2015-10-06

A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15-20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40-50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible.

Understanding recent climate change.

PubMed

Serreze, Mark C

2010-02-01

The Earth's atmosphere has a natural greenhouse effect, without which the global mean surface temperature would be about 33 degrees C lower and life would not be possible. Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases in trace amounts. This has enhanced the greenhouse effect, resulting in surface warming. Were it not for the partly offsetting effects of increased aerosol concentrations, the increase in global mean surface temperature over the past 100 years would be larger than observed. Continued surface warming through the 21st century is inevitable and will likely have widespread ecological impacts. The magnitude and rate of warming for the global average will be largely dictated by the strength and direction of climate feedbacks, thermal inertia of the oceans, the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, and aerosol concentrations. Because of regional expressions of climate feedbacks, changes in atmospheric circulation, and a suite of other factors, the magnitude and rate of warming and changes in other key climate elements, such as precipitation, will not be uniform across the planet. For example, due to loss of its floating sea-ice cover, the Arctic will warm the most.

Evaluation of the Committed Carbon Emissions and Global Warming due to the Permafrost Carbon Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elshorbany, Y. F.; Schaefer, K. M.; Jafarov, E. E.; Yumashev, D.; Hope, C.

2017-12-01

We quantify the increase in carbon emissions and temperature due to Permafrost Carbon feedback (PCF), defined as the amplification of anthropogenic warming due to carbon emissions from thawing permafrost (i.e., of near-surface layers to 3 m depth). We simulate the Committed PCF emissions, the cumulative total emissions from thawing permafrost by 2300 for a given global temperature increase by 2100, and investigate the resulting global warming using the Simple Biosphere/Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach SiBCASA model. We estimate the committed PCF emissions and warming for the Fifth Assessment Report, Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 using two ensembles of five projections. For the 2 °C warming target of the global climate change treaty, committed PCF emissions increase to 24 Gt C by 2100 and 76 Gt C by 2300 and the committed PCF warming is 0.23 °C by 2300. Our calculations show that as the global temperature increase by 2100 approaches 5.8 °C, the entire stock of frozen carbon thaws out, resulting in maximum committed PCF emissions of 560 Gt C by 2300.

Improved atmosphere-ocean coupled modeling in the tropics for climate prediction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Minghua

2015-01-01

We investigated the initial development of the double ITCZ in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM Version 3) in the central Pacific. Starting from a resting initial condition of the ocean in January, the model developed a warm bias of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the central Pacific from 5oS to 10oS in the first three months. We found this initial bias to be caused by excessive surface shortwave radiation that is also present in the standalone atmospheric model. The initial bias is further amplified by biases in both surface latent heat flux and horizontal heat transport in the upper ocean.more » These biases are caused by the responses of surface winds to SST bias and the thermocline structure to surface wind curls. We also showed that the warming biases in surface solar radiation and latent heat fluxes are seasonally offset by cooling biases from reduced solar radiation after the austral summer due to cloud responses and in the austral fall due to enhanced evaporation when the maximum SST is closest to the equator. The warming biases from the dynamic heat transport by ocean currents however stay throughout all seasons once they are developed, which are eventually balanced by enhanced energy exchange and penetration of solar radiation below the mixed layer. Our results also showed that the equatorial cold tongue develops after the warm biases in the south central Pacific, and the overestimation of surface shortwave radiation recurs in the austral summer in each year.« less

Enhanced Climatic Warming Over the Tibetan Plateau Due to Doubling CO2: A Model Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Baode; Chao, Winston C.; Liu, Xiaodong; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A number of studies have presented the evidences that surface climate change associated with global warming at high elevation sites shows more pronounced warming than at low elevations, i.e. an elevation dependency of climatic warming pointed out that snow-albedo feedback may be responsible for the excessive warming in the Swiss Alps. From an ensemble of climate change experiments of increasing greenhouse gases and aerosols using an air-sea coupled climate model, Eyre and Raw (1999) found a marked elevation dependency of the simulated surface screen temperature increase over the Rocky Mountains. Using almost all available instrumental records, Liu and Chen (2000) showed that the main portion of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced significant ground temperature warming since the middlebrows, especially in winter, and that there is a tendency for the warming trend to increase with elevation in the TP as well as its surrounding areas. In this paper, we will investigate the mechanism of elevation dependency of climatic warming in the TP by using a high-resolution regional climate model.

Influence of Transient Atmospheric Circulation on the Surface Heating of the Pacific Warm Pool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Ming-Dah; Chou, Shu-Hsien; Chan, Pui-King

2003-01-01

Analyses of data on clouds, winds, and surface heat fluxes show that the transient behavior of basin-wide large-scale circulation has a significant influence on the warm pool sea surface temperature (SST). Trade winds converge to regions of the highest SST in the equatorial western Pacific. These regions have the largest cloud cover and smallest wind speed. Both surface solar heating and evaporative cooling are weak. The reduced evaporative cooling due to weakened winds exceeds the reduced solar heating due to enhanced cloudiness. The result is a maximum surface heating in the strong convective and high SST regions. Data also show that the maximum surface heating in strong convective regions is interrupted by transient atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Due to the seasonal variation of the insolation at the top of the atmosphere, trade winds and clouds also experience seasonal variations. Regions of high SST and low-level convergence follow the Sun, where the surface heating is a maximum. As the Sun moves away from a convective region, the strong trade winds set in, and the evaporative cooling enhances, resulting in a net cooling of the surface. During an El Nino, the maximum SST and convective region shifts eastward from the maritime continent to the equatorial central Pacific. Following the eastward shift of the maximum SST, the region of maximum cloudiness and surface heating also shift eastward. As the atmospheric and oceanic circulation returns to normal situations, the trade winds increase and the surface heating decreases. We conclude that the evaporative cooling associated with the seasonal and interannual variations of trade winds is one of the major factors that modulate the SST distribution of the Pacific warm pool.

Mechanism for Surface Warming in the Equatorial Pacific during 1994-95

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rienecker, Michele M.; Borovikov, Anna; Schopf, Paul S.

1999-01-01

Mechanisms controlling the variation in sea surface temperature warm event in the equatorial Pacific were investigated through ocean model simulations. In addition, the mechanisms of the climatological SST cycle were investigated. The dominant mechanisms governing the seasonal cycle of SST vary significantly across the basin. In the western Pacific the annual cycle of SST is primarily in response to external heat flux. In the central basin the magnitude of zonal advection is comparable to that of the external heat flux. In the eastern basin the role of zonal advection is reduced and the vertical mixing is more important. In the easternmost equatorial Pacific the vertical entrainment contribution is as large as that of vertical diffusion. The model estimate of the vertical mixing contribution to the mixed layer heat budget compared well with estimates obtained by analysis of observations using the same diagnostic vertical mixing scheme. During 1994- 1995 the largest positive SST anomaly was observed in the mid-basin and was related to reduced latent heat flux due to weak surface winds. In the western basin the initial warming was related to enhanced external heating and reduced cooling effects of both vertical mixing and horizontal advection associated with weaker than usual wind stress. In the eastern Pacific where winds were not significantly anomalous throughout 1994-1995, only a moderate warm surface anomaly was detected. This is in contrast to strong El Nino events where the SST anomaly is largest in the eastern basin and, as shown by previous studies, the anomaly is due to zonal advection rather than anomalous surface heat flux. The end of the warm event was marked by cooling in July 1995 everywhere across the equatorial Pacific.

Analytical Models of Exoplanetary Atmospheres. V. Non-gray Thermal Structure with Coherent Scattering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohandas, Gopakumar; Pessah, Martin E.; Heng, Kevin

2018-05-01

We apply the picket fence treatment to model the effects brought about by spectral lines on the thermal structure of irradiated atmospheres. The lines may be due to pure absorption processes, pure coherent scattering processes, or some combination of absorption and scattering. If the lines arise as a pure absorption process, the surface layers of the atmosphere are cooler, whereas this surface cooling is completely absent if the lines are due to pure coherent isotropic scattering. The lines also lead to a warming of the deeper atmosphere. The warming of the deeper layers is, however, independent of the nature of line formation. Accounting for coherent isotropic scattering in the shortwave and longwave continuum results in anti-greenhouse cooling and greenhouse warming on an atmosphere-wide scale. The effects of coherent isotropic scattering in the line and continuum operate in tandem to determine the resulting thermal structure of the irradiated atmosphere.

Intraseasonal sea surface warming in the western Indian Ocean by oceanic equatorial Rossby waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rydbeck, Adam V.; Jensen, Tommy G.; Nyadjro, Ebenezer S.

2017-05-01

A novel process is identified whereby equatorial Rossby (ER) waves maintain warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies against cooling by processes related to atmospheric convection in the western Indian Ocean. As downwelling ER waves enter the western Indian Ocean, SST anomalies of +0.15°C develop near 60°E. These SST anomalies are hypothesized to stimulate convective onset of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The upper ocean warming that manifests in response to downwelling ER waves is examined in a mixed layer heat budget using observational and reanalysis products, respectively. In the heat budget, horizontal advection is the leading contributor to warming, in part due to an equatorial westward jet of 80 cm s-1 associated with downwelling ER waves. When anomalous currents associated with ER waves are removed in the budget, the warm intraseasonal temperature anomaly in the western Indian Ocean is eliminated in observations and reduced by 55% in reanalysis.

CAUSES: Diagnosis of the Summertime Warm Bias in CMIP5 Climate Models at the ARM Southern Great Plains Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chengzhu; Xie, Shaocheng; Klein, Stephen A.; Ma, Hsi-yen; Tang, Shuaiqi; Van Weverberg, Kwinten; Morcrette, Cyril J.; Petch, Jon

2018-03-01

All the weather and climate models participating in the Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface project show a summertime surface air temperature (T2 m) warm bias in the region of the central United States. To understand the warm bias in long-term climate simulations, we assess the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, with long-term observations mainly from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program Southern Great Plains site. Quantities related to the surface energy and water budget, and large-scale circulation are analyzed to identify possible factors and plausible links involved in the warm bias. The systematic warm season bias is characterized by an overestimation of T2 m and underestimation of surface humidity, precipitation, and precipitable water. Accompanying the warm bias is an overestimation of absorbed solar radiation at the surface, which is due to a combination of insufficient cloud reflection and clear-sky shortwave absorption by water vapor and an underestimation in surface albedo. The bias in cloud is shown to contribute most to the radiation bias. The surface layer soil moisture impacts T2 m through its control on evaporative fraction. The error in evaporative fraction is another important contributor to T2 m. Similar sources of error are found in hindcast from other Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface studies. In Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations, biases in meridional wind velocity associated with the low-level jet and the 500 hPa vertical velocity may also relate to T2 m bias through their control on the surface energy and water budget.

Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth’s energy imbalance

PubMed Central

Drijfhout, Sybren

2015-01-01

A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15–20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40–50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible. PMID:26437599

Endurance of larch forest ecosystems in eastern Siberia under warming trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, H.; Iwahana, G.; Ohta, T.

2015-12-01

The larch (Larix spp.) forest in eastern Siberia is the world's largest coniferous forest. However, its existence depends on near-surface permafrost, which increases water availability for trees, and the boundary of the forest closely follows the permafrost zone. Therefore, the degradation of near-surface permafrost due to forecasted warming trends during the 21st century is expected to affect the larch forest in Siberia. However, predictions of how warming trends will affect this forest vary greatly, and many uncertainties remain about land-atmospheric interactions within the ecosystem. We developed an integrated land surface model to analyze how the Siberian larch forest will react to current warming trends. This model analyzed interactions between vegetation dynamics and thermo-hydrology and showed that, under climatic conditions predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 2.6 and 8.5, annual larch net primary production (NPP) increased about 2 and 3 times, respectively, by the end of 21st century compared with that in the 20th century. Soil water content during larch growing season showed no obvious trend, even after decay of surface permafrost and accompanying sub-surface runoff. A sensitivity test showed that the forecasted warming and pluvial trends extended leafing days of larches and reduced water shortages during the growing season, thereby increasing productivity.

Cloud-radiation interactions - Effects of cirrus optical thickness feedbacks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Somerville, Richard C. J.; Iacobellis, Sam

1987-01-01

The paper is concerned with a cloud-radiation feedback mechanism which may be an important component of the climate changes expected from increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace greenhouse gases. A major result of the study is that cirrus cloud optical thickness feedbacks may indeed tend to increase the surface warming due to trace gas increases. However, the positive feedback from cirrus appears to be generally weaker than the negative effects due to lower clouds. The results just confirm those of earlier research indicating that the net effect of cloud optical thickness feedbacks may be a negative feedback which may substantially (by a factor of about 2) reduce the surface warming due to the doubling of CO2, even in the presence of cirrus clouds.

Potential causes of differences between ground and surface air temperature warming across different ecozones in Alberta, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majorowicz, Jacek A.; Skinner, Walter R.

1997-10-01

Analysis and modelling of temperature anomalies from 25 selected deep wells in Alberta show that the differences between GST (ground surface temperature) warming for the northern Boreal Forest ecozone and the combined Prairie Grassland ecozone and Aspen Parkland transition region to the south occur during the latter half of this century. This corresponds with recent changes in surface albedo resulting from permanent land development in the northern areas and also to increases in natural forest fires in the past 20 years. Differences between GST and SAT (surface air temperature) warming are much higher in the Boreal Forest ecozone than in the Prairie Grassland ecozone and Aspen Parkland transition region. Various hypotheses which could account for the existing differences between the GST and SAT warming in the different ecozones of Alberta, and western Canada in general, are tested. Analysis of existing data on soil temperature, hydrological piezometric surfaces, snowfall and moisture patterns, and land clearing and forest fires, indicate that large areas of Alberta, characterised by anomalous GST warming, have experienced widespread changes to the surface landscape in this century. It is postulated that this has resulted in a lower surface albedo with a subsequent increase in the absorption of solar energy. Heat flow modelling shows that, after climatic SAT warming, permanent clearing of the land is the most effective and likely cause of the observed changes in the GST warming. The greater GST warming in the Boreal Forest ecozone in the latter half of this century is related to landscape change due to land development and increasing forest fire activity. It appears to account for a portion of the observed SAT warming in this region through a positive feedback loop with the overlying air. The anthropogenic effect on regional climatic warming through 20th century land clearing and landscape alteration requires further study. In future, more accurate quantification of these various forcings will be necessary in order to distinguish between, and to detect, the variety of natural and anthropogenic influences and on climate.

Effects of ocean acidification, warming and melting of sea ice on aragonite saturation of the Canada Basin surface water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto-Kawai, M.; McLaughlin, F. A.; Carmack, E. C.

2011-02-01

In 2008, surface waters in the Canada Basin of the Arctic Ocean were found to be undersaturated with respect to aragonite. This is associated with recent extensive melting of sea ice in this region, as well as elevated sea surface temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We have estimated the relative contribution of each of these controlling factors to the calcium carbonate saturation state (Ω) from observations of dissolved inorganic carbon, total alkalinity and oxygen isotope ratio. Results indicate that the increase in atmospheric CO2 has lowered surface Ω by ˜0.3 in the Canada Basin since the preindustrial period. Recent melting of sea ice has further lowered mean Ω by 0.4, and of this, half was due to dilution of surface water and half was due to the change in air-sea disequilibrium state. Surface water warming has generally counteracted the mean decrease in Ω by 0.1.

Warming Effects on Enzyme Activities are Predominant in Sub-surface Soils of an Arctic Tundra Ecosystem over 6-Year Field Manipulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, H.; Seo, J.; Kim, M.; Jung, J. Y.; Lee, Y. K.

2017-12-01

Arctic tundra ecosystems are of great importance because they store a large amount of carbon as un-decomposed organic matter. Global climate change is expected to affect enzyme activities and heterotrophic respiration in Arctic soils, which may accelerate greenhouse gas (GHG) emission through positive biological feedbacks. Unlike laboratory-based incubation experiments, field measurements often show different warming effects on decomposition of organic carbon and releases of GHGs. In the present study, we conducted a field-based warming experiment in Cambridge Bay, Canada (69°07'48″N, 105°03'36″W) by employing passive chambers during growing seasons over 6 years. A suite of enzyme activities (ß-glucosidase, cellobiohydrolase, N-acetylglucosaminidase, leucine aminopeptidase and phenol oxidase), microbial community structure (NGS), microbial abundances (gene copy numbers of bacteria and fungi), and soil chemical properties have been monitored in two depths (0-5 cm and 5-10 cm) of tundra soils, which were exposed to four different treatments (`control', `warming-only', `water-addition only', and both `warming and water-addition'). Phenol oxidase activity increased substantially, and bacterial community structure and abundance changed in the early stage (after 1 year's warming manipulation), but these changes disappeared afterwards. Most hydrolases were enhanced in surface soils by `water-addition only' over the period. However, the long-term effects of warming appeared in sub-surface soils where both `warming only' and `warming and water addition' increased hydrolase activities. Overall results of this study indicate that the warming effects on enzyme activities in surface soils are only short-term (phenol oxidase) or masked by water-limitation (hydrolases). However, hydrolases activities in sub-surface soils are more strongly enhanced than surface soils by warming, probably due to the lack of water limitation. Meanwhile, negative correlations between hydrolase activities and humic fraction of DOC appeared following the sudden increase in phenol oxidase after 1 year's manipulation, suggesting that `enzyme latch' hypothesis is partially responsible for the control of hydrolases in the ecosystem.

The rising greenhouse effect: experiments and observations in and around the Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philipona, R.

2010-09-01

The rapid temperature increase of more than 1°C in central Europe over the last three decades is larger than expected from anthropogenic greenhouse warming. Surface radiation flux measurements in and around the Alps in fact confirm that not only thermal longwave radiation but also solar shortwave radiation increased since the 1980s. Surface energy budget analyses reveal the rising surface temperature to be well correlated with the radiative forcing, and also show an increase of the kinetic energy fluxes explaining the rise of atmospheric water vapor. Solar radiation mainly increased due to a strong decline of anthropogenic aerosols since mid of the 1980s. While anthropogenic aerosols were mainly accumulated in the boundary layer, this reduction let solar radiation to recover (solar brightening after several decades of solar dimming) mainly at low altitudes around the Alps. At high elevations in the Alps, solar forcing is much smaller and the respective temperature rise is also found to be smaller than in the lowlands. The fact that temperature increases less in the Alps than at low elevations is unexpected in the concept of greenhouse warming, but the radiation budget analyses clearly shows that in the plains solar forcing due to declining aerosols additionally increased surface temperature, whereas in the Alps temperature increased primarily due to greenhouse warming that is particularly manifested by a strong water vapor feedback.

Multiple climate regimes in an idealized lake-ice-atmosphere model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiyama, Noriyuki; Kravtsov, Sergey; Roebber, Paul

2018-01-01

In recent decades, the Laurentian Great Lakes have undergone rapid surface warming with the summertime trends substantially exceeding the warming rates of surrounding land. Warming of the deepest (Lake Superior) was the strongest, and that of the shallowest (Lake Erie)—the weakest of all lakes. To investigate the dynamics of accelerated lake warming, we considered single-column and multi-column thermodynamic lake-ice models coupled to an idealized two-layer atmosphere. The variable temperature of the upper atmospheric layer—a proxy for the large-scale atmospheric forcing—consisted, in the most general case, of a linear trend mimicking the global warming and atmospheric interannual variability, both on top of the prescribed seasonal cycle of the upper-air temperature. The atmospheric boundary layer of the coupled model exchanged heat with the lake and exhibited lateral diffusive heat transports between the adjacent atmospheric columns. In simpler single-column models, we find that, for a certain range of periodic atmospheric forcing, each lake possesses two stable equilibrium seasonal cycles, which we call "regimes"—with and without lake-ice occurrence in winter and with corresponding cold and warm temperatures in the following summer, respectively, all under an identical seasonally varying external forcing. Deeper lakes exhibit larger differences in their summertime surface water temperature between the warm and cold regimes, due to their larger thermal and dynamical inertia. The regime behavior of multi-column coupled models is similar but more complex, and in some cases, they admit more than two stable equilibrium seasonal cycles, with varying degrees of wintertime ice-cover. The simulated lake response to climate change in the presence of the atmospheric noise rationalizes the observed accelerated warming of the lakes, the correlation between wintertime ice cover and next summer's lake-surface temperature, as well as higher warming trends of the (occasionally wintertime ice-covered) deep-lake vs. shallow-lake regions, in terms of the corresponding characteristics of the forced transitions between colder and warmer lake regimes. Since the regime behavior in our models arises due to nonlinear dynamics rooted in the ice-albedo feedback, this feedback is also the root cause of the accelerated lake warming simulated by these models. In addition, our results imply that if Lake Superior eventually becomes largely ice-free (<10% maximum ice cover every winter) under continuing global warming, the surface warming trends of the deeper regions of the lake will become modest, similar to those of the shallower regions of the lake.

Intraseasonal sea surface warming in the western Indian Ocean by oceanic equatorial Rossby waves

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-09

using observational and reanalysis products , respectively. In the heat budget, horizontal advection is the leading contributor to warming, in part due to...warming and cooling in these studies . SST is observed to maximize just ahead of MJO convection. After convection begins, SST rapidly cools and reaches a...minimum ~5 days later. However, several studies have observed a certain class of MJO events that deviate from the previously observed relationship of

Gaseous mercury fluxes in peatlands and the potential influence of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haynes, Kristine M.; Kane, Evan S.; Potvin, Lynette; Lilleskov, Erik A.; Kolka, Randall K.; Mitchell, Carl P. J.

2017-04-01

Climate change has the potential to significantly impact the stability of large stocks of mercury (Hg) stored in peatland systems due to increasing temperatures, altered water table regimes and subsequent shifts in vascular plant communities. However, the Hg exchange dynamics between the atmosphere and peatlands are not well understood. At the PEATcosm Mesocosm Facility in Houghton, Michigan, total gaseous Hg (TGM) fluxes were monitored in a subset of 1-m3 peat monoliths with altered water table positions (high and low) and vascular plant functional groups (sedge only, Ericaceae only or unmanipulated control) above the Sphagnum moss layer. At the SPRUCE bog in north-central Minnesota, TGM fluxes were measured from plots subjected to deep peat soil warming (up to +9 °C above ambient at a depth of 2 m). At PEATcosm, the strongest depositional trend was observed with the Low WT - sedge only treatment mesocosms with a mean TGM flux of -73.7 ± 6.3 ng m-2 d-1, likely due to shuttling of Hg to the peat at depth by aerenchymous tissues. The highest total leaf surface and tissue Hg concentrations were observed with the Ericaceae shrubs. A negative correlation between TGM flux and Ericaceae total leaf surface area suggests an influence of shrubs in controlling Hg exchange through stomatal uptake, surface sorption and potentially, peat shading. Surface peat total Hg concentrations are highest in treatments with greatest deposition suggesting deposition controls Hg accumulation in surface peat. Fluxes in the SPRUCE plots ranged from -45.9 ± 93.8 ng m-2 d-1 prior to the implementation of the deep warming treatments to -1.41 ± 27.1 ng m-2 d-1 once warming targets were achieved at depth and +10.2 ± 44.6 ng m-2 d-1 following prolonged deep soil warming. While these intervals did not differ significantly, a significant positive increase in the slope of the regression between flux and surface temperature was observed across the pre-treatment and warming periods. Shifts in vascular vegetation cover and peat warming as a result of climate change may significantly affect the dynamics of TGM fluxes between peatlands and the atmosphere.

The CAUSES Model Intercomparison Project: Using hindcast approach to study the U.S. summertime surface warm temperature bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, H. Y.; Klein, S. A.; Xie, S.; Zhang, C.; Morcrette, C. J.; Van Weverberg, K.; Petch, J.

2016-12-01

The CAUSES (Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface) is a joint GASS/RGCM/ASR model intercomparison project with an observational focus (data from the U.S. DOE ARM SGP site and other observations). The goal of this project is to evaluate the role of clouds, radiation and precipitation processes in contributing to the surface air temperature bias in the region of the central U.S., which is seen in several weather and climate models. In this project, we use a short-term hindcast approach and examine the error growth due to cloud-associated processes while the large-scale state remains close to observations. The study period is from April 1 to August 31, 2011, which also covers the entire Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) campaign that provides very frequent radiosondes (8 per day) and many extensive cloud and precipitation radar observations. Our preliminary analysis indicates that the warm surface air temperature bias in the mean diurnal cycle of the whole study period is very robust across all the participating models over the ARM SGP site. During the spring season (April-May), the daytime warm bias in most models is mostly due to excessive net surface shortwave flux resulting from insufficient deep convective cloud fraction or too optically thin clouds. The nighttime warm bias is likely due to the excessive downwelling longwave flux warming resulting from the persisting deep clouds. During the summer season (June-August), bias contribution from precipitation bias becomes important. The insufficient seasonal accumulated precipitation from the propagating convective systems originated from the Rockies contributes to lower soil moisture. Such condition drives the land surface to a dry state whereby radiative input can only be balanced by sensible heat loss through an increased surface air temperature. More information about the CAUSES project can be found through the following project webpage (http://portal.nersc.gov/project/capt/CAUSES/). (This study is funded by the RGCM and ASR programs of the U.S. Department of Energy as part of the Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed. This work is performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS-688818)

Effects of Whole-Ecosystem Warming on Porewater Chemistry and Hydrology in a Northern Peatland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffiths, N.; Sebestyen, S. D.

2016-12-01

Northern peatlands are carbon-rich ecosystems, and thus it is important to understand the effects of climate change on carbon cycle feedbacks in these vulnerable systems. An ecosystem-scale experiment is evaluating the effects of warming and elevated CO2 on an ombrotrophic bog in northern Minnesota, USA. Ten enclosures, each 12-m in diameter, were constructed in the peatland to allow for both above and belowground warming. Each enclosure receives one of five temperature treatments (+0 to +9°C), with half of the enclosures receiving elevated CO2 (+500ppm) and the other half ambient CO2. A belowground corral with a lateral drainage system surrounds each enclosure, and allows for measurements of lateral outflow volume and chemistry. Piezometers are used to sample porewater chemistry at different depths (0-3m) into the peat. We evaluated the effects of one year of whole-ecosystem warming on depth-specific porewater chemistry and outflow dynamics. Changes in porewater chemistry were observed upon initiation of whole-ecosystem warming. Total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations increased in near-surface porewater in the warmer enclosures, while concentrations were lower and similar to pre-treatment conditions in the ambient (+0°C) enclosures. The changes in TOC concentration measured in response to whole-ecosystem warming were initially limited to only the near-surface porewater (0 m); however, TOC concentrations began to increase at 0.3 m depth after several months of warming. These changes in TOC concentrations were also reflected in water draining from each enclosure, with generally higher TOC concentrations in water flowing from warmer enclosures. However, warmer treatments tended to have lower water outflow rates, possibly due to increased evapotranspiration, and thus TOC fluxes were generally lowest from the warmest enclosures. Overall, these initial results suggest that warming may increase porewater TOC concentrations, possibly due to increased mineralization rates of peat; however, due to the interaction with hydrology, export of this TOC to downstream ecosystems may be lower with warming. Continued measurements over the next 10 years will evaluate the long-term effects of warming on peatland chemistry and hydrology.

Teachers and Students Knowledge about Global Warming: A Study in Smoke Disaster Area of Indonesia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosidin, Undang; Suyatna, Agus

2017-01-01

The average temperature on the Earth's surface has globally increased. This issue was generally caused by the increasing of greenhouse gases concentrations due to human activities. Therefore, the knowledge about global warming becomes major topics for students and educators. This research aimed to investigate how the teachers and students…

Understanding the tropical warm temperature bias simulated by climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brient, Florent; Schneider, Tapio

2017-04-01

The state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models have difficulties in representing the observed spatial pattern of surface tempertaure. A majority of them suffers a warm bias in the tropical subsiding regions located over the eastern parts of oceans. These regions are usually covered by low-level clouds scattered from stratus along the coasts to more vertically developed shallow cumulus farther from them. Models usually fail to represent accurately this transition. Here we investigate physical drivers of this warm bias in CMIP5 models through a near-surface energy budget perspective. We show that overestimated solar insolation due to a lack of stratocumulus mostly explains the warm bias. This bias also arises partly from inter-model differences in surface fluxes that could be traced to differences in near-surface relative humidity and air-sea temperature gradient. We investigate the role of the atmosphere in driving surface biases by comparing historical and atmopsheric (AMIP) experiments. We show that some differences in boundary-layer characteristics, mostly those related to cloud fraction and relative humidity, are already present in AMIP experiments and may be the drivers of coupled biases. This gives insights in how models can be improved for better simulations of the tropical climate.

Deep oceans may acidify faster than anticipated due to global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chen-Tung Arthur; Lui, Hon-Kit; Hsieh, Chia-Han; Yanagi, Tetsuo; Kosugi, Naohiro; Ishii, Masao; Gong, Gwo-Ching

2017-12-01

Oceans worldwide are undergoing acidification due to the penetration of anthropogenic CO2 from the atmosphere1-4. The rate of acidification generally diminishes with increasing depth. Yet, slowing down of the thermohaline circulation due to global warming could reduce the pH in the deep oceans, as more organic material would decompose with a longer residence time. To elucidate this process, a time-series study at a climatically sensitive region with sufficient duration and resolution is needed. Here we show that deep waters in the Sea of Japan are undergoing reduced ventilation, reducing the pH of seawater. As a result, the acidification rate near the bottom of the Sea of Japan is 27% higher than the rate at the surface, which is the same as that predicted assuming an air-sea CO2 equilibrium. This reduced ventilation may be due to global warming and, as an oceanic microcosm with its own deep- and bottom-water formations, the Sea of Japan provides an insight into how future warming might alter the deep-ocean acidification.

The biogeophysical effects of extreme afforestation in modeling future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ye; Yan, Xiaodong; Wang, Zhaomin

2014-11-01

Afforestation has been deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming due to its substantial carbon sequestration, which is partly counterbalanced with its biogeophysical effects through modifying the fluxes of energy, water, and momentum at the land surface. To assess the potential biophysical effects of afforestation, a set of extreme experiments in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, the McGill Paleoclimate Model-2 (MPM-2), is designed. Model results show that latitudinal afforestation not only has a local warming effect but also induces global and remote warming over regions beyond the forcing originating areas. Precipitation increases in the northern hemisphere and decreases in southern hemisphere in response to afforestation. The local surface warming over the forcing originating areas in northern hemisphere is driven by decreases in surface albedo and increases in precipitation. The remote surface warming in southern hemisphere is induced by decreases in surface albedo and precipitation. The results suggest that the potential impact of afforestation on regional and global climate depended critically on the location of the forest expansion. That is, afforestation in 0°-15°N leaves a relatively minor impact on global and regional temperature; afforestation in 45°-60°N results in a significant global warming, while afforestation in 30°-45°N results in a prominent regional warming. In addition, the afforestation leads to a decrease in annual mean meridional oceanic heat transport with a maximum decrease in forest expansion of 30°-45°N. These results can help to compare afforestation effects and find areas where afforestation mitigates climate change most effectively combined with its carbon drawdown effects.

Disentangling Global Warming, Multidecadal Variability, and El Niño in Pacific Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wills, Robert C.; Schneider, Tapio; Wallace, John M.; Battisti, David S.; Hartmann, Dennis L.

2018-03-01

A key challenge in climate science is to separate observed temperature changes into components due to internal variability and responses to external forcing. Extended integrations of forced and unforced climate models are often used for this purpose. Here we demonstrate a novel method to separate modes of internal variability from global warming based on differences in time scale and spatial pattern, without relying on climate models. We identify uncorrelated components of Pacific sea surface temperature variability due to global warming, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results give statistical representations of PDO and ENSO that are consistent with their being separate processes, operating on different time scales, but are otherwise consistent with canonical definitions. We isolate the multidecadal variability of the PDO and find that it is confined to midlatitudes; tropical sea surface temperatures and their teleconnections mix in higher-frequency variability. This implies that midlatitude PDO anomalies are more persistent than previously thought.

Detecting anthropogenic climate forcing in the ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wijffels, S. A.

2016-12-01

Owing to its immense heat capacity, the global ocean is the fly-wheel of the climate system, absorbing, redistributing and storing heat on long timescales and over great distances. Of the extra heat trapped in the Earth System due to rising greenhouse gases, over 90% is being stored in the global oceans. Tracking this warming has been challenging due to past changes in the coverage and technology used in past ocean observations. Here, I'll review progress in estimating past warming rates and patterns. The warming of Earth's surface is also driving changes in the global hydrological cycle, which also intimately involves the oceans. Global ocean salinity changes reveal another footprint of a warming Earth. Some simple model runs that give insight into observed subsurface changes will also be described, along with an update on current warming rates and patterns as tracked by the global Argo programme. The prospects for the next advances in broadscale ocean monitoring will also be discussed.

Bathymetric controls on Pliocene North Atlantic and Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, M.M.; Valdes, P.J.; Haywood, A.M.; Dowsett, H.J.; Hill, D.J.; Jones, S.M.

2011-01-01

The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; ~. 3.3 to 3.0. Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history in which global temperatures reached and remained at levels similar to those projected for the near future. The distribution of global warmth, however, was different than today in that the high latitudes warmed more than the tropics. Multiple temperature proxies indicate significant sea surface warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans during the MPWP, but predictions from a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (HadCM3) have so far been unable to fully predict the large scale of sea surface warming in the high latitudes. If climate proxies accurately represent Pliocene conditions, and if no weakness exists in the physics of the model, then model boundary conditions may be in error. Here we alter a single boundary condition (bathymetry) to examine if Pliocene high latitude warming was aided by an increase in poleward heat transport due to changes in the subsidence of North Atlantic Ocean ridges. We find an increase in both Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production in model experiments that incorporate a deepened Greenland-Scotland Ridge. These results offer both a mechanism for the warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans indicated by numerous proxies and an explanation for the apparent disparity between proxy data and model simulations of Pliocene northern North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean conditions. Determining the causes of Pliocene warmth remains critical to fully understanding comparisons of the Pliocene warm period to possible future climate change scenarios. ?? 2011.

Is "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" A Fingerprint Pattern of Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoerling, M. P.; Sun, L.; Perlwitz, J.

2015-12-01

Cold winters and cold waves have recently occurred in Europe, central Asia and the Midwest to eastern United States, even as global mean temperatures set record highs and Arctic amplification of surface warming continued. Since 1979, Central Asia winter temperatures have in fact declined. Conjecture has it that more cold extremes over the mid-latitude continents should occur due to global warming and the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss. A Northern Hemisphere temperature signal termed the "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" pattern has thus been surmised. Here we use a multi-model approach to test the hypothesis that such a pattern is indeed symptomatic of climate change. Diagnosis of a large model ensemble of historical climate simulations shows some individual realizations to yield cooling trends over Central Asia, but importantly the vast majority show warming. The observed cooling has thus likely been a low probability state of internal variability, not a fingerprint of forced climate change. We show that daily temperature variations over continents decline in winter due to global warming, and cold waves become less likely. This is partly related to diminution of Arctic cold air reservoirs due to warming-induced sea ice loss. Nonetheless, we find some evidence and present a physical basis that Arctic sea ice loss alone can induce a winter cooling over Central Asia, though with a magnitude that is appreciably smaller than the overall radiative-forced warming signal. Our results support the argument that recent cooling trends over central Asia, and cold extreme events over the winter continents, have principally resulted from atmospheric internal variability and have been neither a forced response to Arctic seas ice loss nor a symptom of global warming. The paradigm of climate change is thus better expressed as "Warm Arctic, Warm Continent" for the NH winter.

Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samset, B. H.; Sand, M.; Smith, C. J.; Bauer, S. E.; Forster, P. M.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Osprey, S.; Schleussner, C.-F.

2018-01-01

Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5-1.1°C, and precipitation increase of 2.0-4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near-term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing.

Is Global Warming Accelerating?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, J.; Delsole, T. M.; Tippett, M. K.

2009-12-01

A global pattern that fluctuates naturally on decadal time scales is identified in climate simulations and observations. This newly discovered component, called the Global Multidecadal Oscillation (GMO), is related to the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation and shown to account for a substantial fraction of decadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature. IPCC-class climate models generally underestimate the variance of the GMO, and hence underestimate the decadal fluctuations due to this component of natural variability. Decomposing observed sea surface temperature into a component due to anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing plus the GMO, reveals that most multidecadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature can be accounted for by these two components alone. The fact that the GMO varies naturally on multidecadal time scales implies that it can be predicted with some skill on decadal time scales, which provides a scientific rationale for decadal predictions. Furthermore, the GMO is shown to account for about half of the warming in the last 25 years and hence a substantial fraction of the recent acceleration in the rate of increase in global average sea surface temperature. Nevertheless, in terms of the global average “well-observed” sea surface temperature, the GMO can account for only about 0.1° C in transient, decadal-scale fluctuations, not the century-long 1° C warming that has been observed during the twentieth century.

Understanding the causes of recent warming of mediterranean waters. How much could be attributed to climate change?

PubMed

Macias, Diego; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Stips, Adolf

2013-01-01

During the past two decades, Mediterranean waters have been warming at a rather high rate resulting in scientific and social concern. This warming trend is observed in satellite data, field data and model simulations, and affects both surface and deep waters throughout the Mediterranean basin. However, the warming rate is regionally different and seems to change with time, which has led to the question of what causes underlie the observed trends. Here, we analyze available satellite information on sea surface temperature (SST) from the last 25 years using spectral techniques and find that more than half of the warming tendency during this period is due to a non-linear, wave-like tendency. Using a state of the art hydrodynamic model, we perform a hindcast simulation and obtain the simulated SST evolution of the Mediterranean basin for the last 52 years. These SST results show a clear sinusoidal tendency that follows the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) during the simulation period. Our results reveal that 58% of recent warming in Mediterranean waters could be attributed to this AMO-like oscillation, being anthropogenic-induced climate change only responsible for 42% of total trend. The observed acceleration of water warming during the 1990s therefore appears to be caused by a superimposition of anthropogenic-induced warming with the positive phase of the AMO, while the recent slowdown of this tendency is likely due to a shift in the AMO phase. It has been proposed that this change in the AMO phase will mask the effect of global warming in the forthcoming decades, and our results indicate that the same could also be applicable to the Mediterranean Sea. Henceforth, natural multidecadal temperature oscillations should be taken into account to avoid underestimation of the anthropogenic-induced warming of the Mediterranean basin in the future.

Using radiative signatures to diagnose the cause of warming during the 2013-2014 Californian drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolf, Sebastian; Yin, Dongqin; Roderick, Michael L.

2017-10-01

California recently experienced among the worst droughts of the last century, with exceptional precipitation deficits and co-occurring record high temperatures. The dry conditions caused severe water shortages in one of the economically most important agricultural regions of the US. It has recently been hypothesized that anthropogenic warming is increasing the likelihood of such extreme droughts in California, or more specifically, that warmer temperatures from the enhanced greenhouse effect intensify drought conditions. However, separating the cause and effect is difficult because the dry conditions lead to a reduction in evaporative cooling that contributes to the warming. Here we investigate and compare the forcing of long-term greenhouse-induced warming with the short-term warming during the 2013-2014 Californian drought. We use the concept of radiative signatures to investigate the source of the radiative perturbation during the drought, relate the signatures to expected changes due to anthropogenic warming, and assess the cause of warming based on observed changes in the surface energy balance compared to the period 2001-2012. We found that the recent meteorological drought based on precipitation deficits was characterised by an increase in incoming shortwave radiation coupled with a decline in incoming longwave radiation, which contributed to record warm temperatures. In contrast, climate models project that anthropogenic warming is accompanied by little change in incoming shortwave but a large increase in incoming longwave radiation. The warming during the drought was associated with increased incoming shortwave radiation in combination with reduced evaporative cooling from water deficits, which enhanced surface temperatures and sensible heat transfer to the atmosphere. Our analyses demonstrate that radiative signatures are a powerful tool to differentiate the source of perturbations in the surface energy balance at monthly to seasonal time scales.

Recent Warming of Lake Kivu

PubMed Central

Katsev, Sergei; Aaberg, Arthur A.; Crowe, Sean A.; Hecky, Robert E.

2014-01-01

Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient. PMID:25295730

Recent warming of lake Kivu.

PubMed

Katsev, Sergei; Aaberg, Arthur A; Crowe, Sean A; Hecky, Robert E

2014-01-01

Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.

Sensitivity of Stratospheric Geoengineering with Black Carbon to Aerosol Size and Altitude of Injection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kravitz, Ben; Robock, Alan; Shindell, Drew T.; Miller, Mark A.

2012-01-01

Simulations of stratospheric geoengineering with black carbon (BC) aerosols using a general circulation model with fixed sea surface temperatures show that the climate effects strongly depend on aerosol size and altitude of injection. 1 Tg BC/a injected into the lower stratosphere would cause little surface cooling for large radii but a large amount of surface cooling for small radii and stratospheric warming of over 60 C. With the exception of small particles, increasing the altitude of injection increases surface cooling and stratospheric warming. Stratospheric warming causes global ozone loss by up to 50% in the small radius case. The Antarctic shows less ozone loss due to reduction of polar stratospheric clouds, but strong circumpolar winds would enhance the Arctic ozone hole. Using diesel fuel to produce the aerosols is likely prohibitively expensive and infeasible. Although studying an absorbing aerosol is a useful counterpart to previous studies involving sulfate aerosols, black carbon geoengineering likely carries too many risks to make it a viable option for deployment.

Dependence of Arctic climate on the latitudinal position of stationary waves and to high-latitudes surface warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Yechul; Kang, Sarah M.; Watanabe, Masahiro

2017-12-01

Previous studies suggest large uncertainties in the stationary wave response under global warming. Here, we investigate how the Arctic climate responds to changes in the latitudinal position of stationary waves, and to high-latitudes surface warming that mimics the effect of Arctic sea ice loss under global warming. To generate stationary waves in an atmospheric model coupled to slab ocean, a series of experiments is performed where the thermal forcing with a zonal wavenumber-2 (with zero zonal-mean) is prescribed at the surface at different latitude bands in the Northern Hemisphere. When the stationary waves are generated in the subtropics, the cooling response dominates over the warming response in the lower troposphere due to cloud radiative effects. Then, the low-level baroclinicity is reduced in the subtropics, which gives rise to a poleward shift of the eddy driven jet, thereby inducing substantial cooling in the northern high latitudes. As the stationary waves are progressively generated at higher latitudes, the zonal-mean climate state gradually becomes more similar to the integration with no stationary waves. These differences in the mean climate affect the Arctic climate response to high-latitudes surface warming. Additional surface heating over the Arctic is imposed to the reference climates in which the stationary waves are located at different latitude bands. When the stationary waves are positioned at lower latitudes, the eddy driven jet is located at higher latitude, closer to the prescribed Arctic heating. As baroclinicity is more effectively perturbed, the jet shifts more equatorward that accompanies a larger reduction in the poleward eddy transport of heat and momentum. A stronger eddy-induced descending motion creates greater warming over the Arctic. Our study calls for a more accurate simulation of the present-day stationary wave pattern to enhance the predictability of the Arctic warming response in a changing climate.

Drylands face potential threat under 2 °C global warming target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jianping; Yu, Haipeng; Dai, Aiguo; Wei, Yun; Kang, Litai

2017-06-01

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean surface warming to less than 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. However, we show this target is acceptable only for humid lands, whereas drylands will bear greater warming risks. Over the past century, surface warming over global drylands (1.2-1.3 °C) has been 20-40% higher than that over humid lands (0.8-1.0 °C), while anthropogenic CO2 emissions generated from drylands (~230 Gt) have been only ~30% of those generated from humid lands (~750 Gt). For the twenty-first century, warming of 3.2-4.0 °C (2.4-2.6 °C) over drylands (humid lands) could occur when global warming reaches 2.0 °C, indicating ~44% more warming over drylands than humid lands. Decreased maize yields and runoff, increased long-lasting drought and more favourable conditions for malaria transmission are greatest over drylands if global warming were to rise from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C. Our analyses indicate that ~38% of the world's population living in drylands would suffer the effects of climate change due to emissions primarily from humid lands. If the 1.5 °C warming limit were attained, the mean warming over drylands could be within 3.0 °C therefore it is necessary to keep global warming within 1.5 °C to prevent disastrous effects over drylands.

Drivers of Antarctic sea-ice expansion and Southern Ocean surface cooling over the past four decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purich, Ariaan; England, Matthew

2017-04-01

Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea-ice coverage has increased overall during the past four decades. In contrast, the majority of CMIP5 models simulate a decline. In addition, Southern Ocean surface waters have largely cooled, in stark contrast to almost all historical CMIP5 simulations. Subantarctic Surface Waters have cooled and freshened while waters to the north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current have warmed and increased in salinity. It remains unclear as to what extent the cooling and Antarctic sea-ice expansion is due to natural variability versus anthropogenic forcing; due for example to changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). It is also unclear what the respective role of surface buoyancy fluxes is compared to internal ocean circulation changes, and what the implications are for longer-term climate change in the region. In this presentation we will outline three distinct drivers of recent Southern Ocean surface trends that have each made a significant contribution to regional cooling: (1) wind-driven surface cooling and sea-ice expansion due to shifted westerly winds, (2) teleconnections of decadal variability from the tropical Pacific, and (3) surface cooling and ice expansion due to large-scale Southern Ocean freshening, most likely driven by SAM-related precipitation trends over the open ocean. We will also outline the main reasons why climate models for the most part miss these Southern Ocean cooling trends, despite capturing overall trends in the SAM.

A study of the dynamics of droughts in Northern Brazil: Observations, theory, and numerical experiments with a global atmospheric circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shukla, J.; Moura, A. D.

1980-01-01

The monthly mean sea surface temperature anomalies over tropical Altantic and rainfall anomalies over two selected stations for 25 years (1948-1972) were examined. It is found that the most severe drought events are associated with the simultaneous occurrence of warm sea surface temperature anomalies over north and cold sea surface temperature anomalies over south tropical Atlantic. Simultaneous occurrences of warm sea surface temperature anomaly at 15 deg N, 45 deg W and cold sea surface temperature anomaly at 15 deg S, 5 deg W were always associated with negative anomalies of rainfall, and vice versa. A simple primitive equation model is used to calculate the frictionally controlled and thermally driven circulation due to a prescribed heating function in a resting atmosphere.

Impact of global warming on the typhoon intensities during 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, N. Y.; Yang, S. H.; Elsner, J.; Chun, Y.

2017-12-01

The climate of 2015 was characterized by a strong El Nino, global warmth, and record setting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity for western North Pacific typhoons. In this study, the highest TC intensity in 32 years (1984-2015) is shown to be a consequence of above normal TC activity—following natural internal variation—and greater efficiency of intensity. The efficiency of intensity (EINT) is termed the `blasting effect' and refers to typhoon intensification at the expense of occurrence. Statistical models show that the EINT is mostly due to the anomalous warmth in the environment as indicated by global mean sea-surface temperature. In comparison, the EINT due to El Nino is negligibly small. This implies that the record-setting intensity of 2015 might not have occurred without environmental warming and suggests that a year with even greater TC intensity is possible in the near future when above normal activity coincides with another record EINT due to continuous warming.

Poster 16: Eclipse-induced changes of Titan's meteorology at equinox

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokano, Tetsuya

2016-06-01

Titan experiences solar eclipses by Saturn on ˜20 consecutive orbits around equinox for durations of up to ˜6 hours. The impact of these eclipses on Titan's surface, lower atmosphere and middle atmosphere is investigated by a global climate model. When an eclipse commences, the surface temperature on the subsaturnian side drops by up to 0.3 K, so that the diurnal maximum surface temperature remains lower than on the antisaturnian side, which is never eclipsed. By contrast, the tropospheric air temperature does not abruptly decrease during the eclipses because of the large thermal inertia, but the diurnal mean temperature slightly decreases. The surface wind at low latitudes becomes less gusty in the presence of eclipse due to damping of turbulence. The troposphere outside the planetary boundary layer is not sensitive to eclipses. In most parts of the stratosphere and mesosphere the temperature decreases by up to 2 K due to eclipses, but there are also layers, which experience relative warming due to thermal contraction of the underlying layers. The temperature in the middle atmosphere rapidly recovers after the end of the eclipse season. Eclipse-induced cooling and warming changes the zonal wind speed by a few m/s due to thermal wind adjustment to changing latitudinal temperature gradients.

The Question of Future Droughts in a CO2-Warmed World

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, David

1999-01-01

Increased droughts are to be expected in a warmer world, and so are increased floods. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, and evaporate more water from the surface. Thus, when it is not raining, available soil water should be reduced. When it is raining, it could very well rain harder. Most researchers agree then that a warmer world will have greater hydrologic extremes. In addition, there is a basic imbalance that develops as climate warms, between the loss of moisture from the soil by evaporation and replenishment via precipitation. The land has a smaller heat capacity than the ocean, so it should warm faster. Evaporation from the land proceeds at the rate of its warming, while precipitation derives primarily from evaporation at the ocean surface. As the latter is increasing more slowly, in a warmer world, precipitation will not increase as rapidly as evaporation due to the fact that the oceans warm more slowly than the land surface (evaporation over the ocean is slower than over the land). Hence, more droughts are anticipated in a warmer world, but the specific location of such droughts is somewhat uncertain. To address the question of where droughts are likely to occur, one first needs to have a reasonable sense of what the future magnitude of warming will be, and what the latitudinal distribution of warming will be. For example, the greater the warming at high latitudes relative to low latitudes, the more likely there will be increased drought over the U.S. in summer. In contrast, substantial tropical warming could give us El Nino-like precipitation, with intensified flooding along the southern tier of the U.S. All of these conditions are likely to intensify as the global temperature rises.

Subsurface flow pathway dynamics in the active layer of coupled permafrost-hydrogeological systems under seasonal and annual temperature variability.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frampton, Andrew

2017-04-01

There is a need for improved understanding of the mechanisms controlling subsurface solute transport in the active layer in order to better understand permafrost-hydrological-carbon feedbacks, in particular with regards to how dissolved carbon is transported in coupled surface and subsurface terrestrial arctic water systems under climate change. Studying solute transport in arctic systems is also relevant in the context of anthropogenic pollution which may increase due to increased activity in cold region environments. In this contribution subsurface solute transport subject to ground surface warming causing permafrost thaw and active layer change is studied using a physically based model of coupled cryotic and hydrogeological flow processes combined with a particle tracking method. Changes in subsurface water flows and solute transport travel times are analysed for different modelled geological configurations during a 100-year warming period. Results show that for all simulated cases, the minimum and mean travel times increase non-linearly with warming irrespective of geological configuration and heterogeneity structure. The timing of the start of increase in travel time depends on heterogeneity structure, combined with the rate of permafrost degradation that also depends on material thermal and hydrogeological properties. These travel time changes are shown to depend on combined warming effects of increase in pathway length due to deepening of the active layer, reduced transport velocities due to a shift from horizontal saturated groundwater flow near the surface to vertical water percolation deeper into the subsurface, and pathway length increase and temporary immobilization caused by cryosuction-induced seasonal freeze cycles. The impact these change mechanisms have on solute and dissolved substance transport is further analysed by integrating pathway analysis with a Lagrangian approach, incorporating considerations for both dissolved organic and inorganic carbon releases. Further model development challenges are also highlighted and discussed, including coupling between subsurface and surface runoff, soil deformations, as well as site applications and larger system scales.

High-frequency pressure variations in the vicinity of a surface CO2 flux chamber

Treesearch

Eugene S. Takle; James R. Brandle; R. A. Schmidt; Rick Garcia; Irina V. Litvina; William J. Massman; Xinhua Zhou; Geoffrey Doyle; Charles W. Rice

2003-01-01

We report measurements of 2Hz pressure fluctuations at and below the soil surface in the vicinity of a surface-based CO2 flux chamber. These measurements were part of a field experiment to examine the possible role of pressure pumping due to atmospheric pressure fluctuations on measurements of surface fluxes of CO2. Under the moderate wind speeds, warm temperatures,...

Mitigation benefits of forestation greatly varies on short spatial scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yakir, Dan; Rotenberg, Eyal; Rohatin, Shani; Ramati, Efrat; Asaf, David; Dicken, Uri

2016-04-01

Mitigation of global warming by forestation is controversial because of its linkage to increasing surface energy load and associated surface warming. Such tradeoffs between cooling associated with carbon sequestration and warming associated with radiative effects have been considered predominantly on large spatial scales, indicating benefits of forestation mainly in the tropics but not in the boreal regions. Using mobile laboratory for measuring CO2, water and energy flux in forest and non-forest ecosystem along the climatic gradient in Israel over three years, we show that the balance between cooling and warming effects of forestation can be transformed across small spatial scale. While converting shrubland to pine forest in a semi-arid site (280 mm annual precipitations) requires several decades of carbon sequestration to balance the radiative warming effects, similar land use change under moist Mediterranean conditions (780 mm annual precipitation) just ~200 km away showed reversal of this balance. Specifically, the results indicated that in the study region (semi-arid to humid Mediterranean), net absorb radiation in pine forests is always larger than in open space ecosystems, resulting in surface warming effects (the so-called albedo effect). Similarly, depression of thermal radiation emission, mainly due canopy skin surface cooling associated with the 'convector effect' in forests compared with shrubland ecosystems also appears in all sites. But both effects decrease by about 1/2 in going from the semi-arid to the humid Mediterranean sites, while enhanced productivity of forest compared to grassland increase about fourfold. The results indicate a greater potential for forestation as climate change mitigation strategy than previously assumed.

The influence of global sea surface temperature variability on the large-scale land surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyrrell, Nicholas L.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Frauen, Claudia; Wales, Scott; Rezny, Mike

2015-04-01

In global warming scenarios, global land surface temperatures () warm with greater amplitude than sea surface temperatures (SSTs), leading to a land/sea warming contrast even in equilibrium. Similarly, the interannual variability of is larger than the covariant interannual SST variability, leading to a land/sea contrast in natural variability. This work investigates the land/sea contrast in natural variability based on global observations, coupled general circulation model simulations and idealised atmospheric general circulation model simulations with different SST forcings. The land/sea temperature contrast in interannual variability is found to exist in observations and models to a varying extent in global, tropical and extra-tropical bands. There is agreement between models and observations in the tropics but not the extra-tropics. Causality in the land-sea relationship is explored with modelling experiments forced with prescribed SSTs, where an amplification of the imposed SST variability is seen over land. The amplification of to tropical SST anomalies is due to the enhanced upper level atmospheric warming that corresponds with tropical moist convection over oceans leading to upper level temperature variations that are larger in amplitude than the source SST anomalies. This mechanism is similar to that proposed for explaining the equilibrium global warming land/sea warming contrast. The link of the to the dominant mode of tropical and global interannual climate variability, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is found to be an indirect and delayed connection. ENSO SST variability affects the oceans outside the tropical Pacific, which in turn leads to a further, amplified and delayed response of.

Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Soden, Brian J.; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Held, Isaac M.; Leetmaa, Ants; Harrison, Matthew J.

2006-05-01

Since the mid-nineteenth century the Earth's surface has warmed, and models indicate that human activities have caused part of the warming by altering the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Simple theories suggest that global warming will reduce the strength of the mean tropical atmospheric circulation. An important aspect of this tropical circulation is a large-scale zonal (east-west) overturning of air across the equatorial Pacific Ocean-driven by convection to the west and subsidence to the east-known as the Walker circulation. Here we explore changes in tropical Pacific circulation since the mid-nineteenth century using observations and a suite of global climate model experiments. Observed Indo-Pacific sea level pressure reveals a weakening of the Walker circulation. The size of this trend is consistent with theoretical predictions, is accurately reproduced by climate model simulations and, within the climate models, is largely due to anthropogenic forcing. The climate model indicates that the weakened surface winds have altered the thermal structure and circulation of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results support model projections of further weakening of tropical atmospheric circulation during the twenty-first century.

An increase in aerosol burden due to the land-sea warming contrast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, T.; Allen, R.; Randles, C. A.

2017-12-01

Climate models simulate an increase in most aerosol species in response to warming, particularly over the tropics and Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. This increase in aerosol burden is related to a decrease in wet removal, primarily due to reduced large-scale precipitation. Here, we show that the increase in aerosol burden, and the decrease in large-scale precipitation, is related to a robust climate change phenomenon—the land/sea warming contrast. Idealized simulations with two state of the art climate models, the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (NCAR CAM5) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmospheric Model 3 (GFDL AM3), show that muting the land-sea warming contrast negates the increase in aerosol burden under warming. This is related to smaller decreases in near-surface relative humidity over land, and in turn, smaller decreases in large-scale precipitation over land—especially in the NH midlatitudes. Furthermore, additional idealized simulations with an enhanced land/sea warming contrast lead to the opposite result—larger decreases in relative humidity over land, larger decreases in large-scale precipitation, and larger increases in aerosol burden. Our results, which relate the increase in aerosol burden to the robust climate projection of enhanced land warming, adds confidence that a warmer world will be associated with a larger aerosol burden.

Understanding the double peaked El Niño in coupled GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, Felicity S.; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Brown, Jaclyn N.; Marsland, Simon J.; Holbrook, Neil J.

2017-03-01

Coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) simulate a diverse range of El Niño-Southern Oscillation behaviors. "Double peaked" El Niño events—where two separate centers of positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies evolve concurrently in the eastern and western equatorial Pacific—have been evidenced in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 CGCMs and are without precedent in observations. The characteristic CGCM double peaked El Niño may be mistaken for a central Pacific warming event in El Niño composites, shifted westwards due to the cold tongue bias. In results from the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator coupled model, we find that the western Pacific warm peak of the double peaked El Niño event emerges due to an excessive westward extension of the climatological cold tongue, displacing the region of strong zonal SST gradients towards the west Pacific. A coincident westward shift in the zonal current anomalies reinforces the western peak in SST anomalies, leading to a zonal separation between the warming effect of zonal advection (in the west Pacific) and that of vertical advection (in the east Pacific). Meridional advection and net surface heat fluxes further drive growth of the western Pacific warm peak. Our results demonstrate that understanding historical CGCM El Niño behaviors is a necessary precursor to interpreting projections of future CGCM El Niño behaviors, such as changes in the frequency of eastern Pacific El Niño events, under global warming scenarios.

Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucharski, F.; Sun, C.; Li, J.; Jin, F. F.; Kang, I. S.; Ding, R.

2017-12-01

Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO-WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind-evaporation-SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST-sea level pressure-cloud-longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability.

Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

PubMed Central

Sun, Cheng; Kucharski, Fred; Li, Jianping; Jin, Fei-Fei; Kang, In-Sik; Ding, Ruiqiang

2017-01-01

Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO–WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind–evaporation–SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST–sea level pressure–cloud–longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability. PMID:28685765

Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Cheng; Kucharski, Fred; Li, Jianping; Jin, Fei-Fei; Kang, In-Sik; Ding, Ruiqiang

2017-07-01

Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO-WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind-evaporation-SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST-sea level pressure-cloud-longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability.

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth’s energy budget

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

2016-10-31

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. We present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. Here, we find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth’s energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback betweenmore » the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. Our results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and o er a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.« less

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth’s energy budget

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. We present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. Here, we find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth’s energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback betweenmore » the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. Our results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and o er a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.« less

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth's energy budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

2016-12-01

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. Here we present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. We find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth's energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback between the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. These results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and offer a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.

Enhancement of phytoplankton chlorophyll by submesoscale frontal dynamics in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre.

PubMed

Liu, Xiao; Levine, Naomi M

2016-02-28

Subtropical gyres contribute significantly to global ocean productivity. As the climate warms, the strength of these gyres as a biological carbon pump is predicted to diminish due to increased stratification and depleted surface nutrients. We present results suggesting that the impact of submesoscale physics on phytoplankton in the oligotrophic ocean is substantial and may either compensate or exacerbate future changes in carbon cycling. A new statistical tool was developed to quantify surface patchiness from sea surface temperatures. Chlorophyll concentrations in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre were shown to be enhanced by submesoscale frontal dynamics with an average increase of 38% (maximum of 83%) during late winter. The magnitude of this enhancement is comparable to the observed decline in chlorophyll due to a warming of ~1.1°C. These results highlight the need for an improved understanding of fine-scale physical variability in order to predict the response of marine ecosystems to projected climate changes.

Enhancement of phytoplankton chlorophyll by submesoscale frontal dynamics in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiao; Levine, Naomi M.

2016-02-01

Subtropical gyres contribute significantly to global ocean productivity. As the climate warms, the strength of these gyres as a biological carbon pump is predicted to diminish due to increased stratification and depleted surface nutrients. We present results suggesting that the impact of submesoscale physics on phytoplankton in the oligotrophic ocean is substantial and may either compensate or exacerbate future changes in carbon cycling. A new statistical tool was developed to quantify surface patchiness from sea surface temperatures. Chlorophyll concentrations in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre were shown to be enhanced by submesoscale frontal dynamics with an average increase of 38% (maximum of 83%) during late winter. The magnitude of this enhancement is comparable to the observed decline in chlorophyll due to a warming of ~1.1°C. These results highlight the need for an improved understanding of fine-scale physical variability in order to predict the response of marine ecosystems to projected climate changes.

Twentieth century bipolar seesaw of the Arctic and Antarctic surface air temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chylek, Petr; Folland, Chris K.; Lesins, Glen; Dubey, Manvendra K.

2010-04-01

Understanding the phase relationship between climate changes in the Arctic and Antarctic regions is essential for our understanding of the dynamics of the Earth's climate system. In this paper we show that the 20th century de-trended Arctic and Antarctic temperatures vary in anti-phase seesaw pattern - when the Arctic warms the Antarctica cools and visa versa. This is the first time that a bi-polar seesaw pattern has been identified in the 20th century Arctic and Antarctic temperature records. The Arctic (Antarctic) de-trended temperatures are highly correlated (anti-correlated) with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index suggesting the Atlantic Ocean as a possible link between the climate variability of the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Recent accelerated warming of the Arctic results from a positive reinforcement of the linear warming trend (due to an increasing concentration of greenhouse gases and other possible forcings) by the warming phase of the multidecadal climate variability (due to fluctuations of the Atlantic Ocean circulation).

Arctic Sea Ice Basal Melt Onset Variability and Associated Ocean Surface Heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrick, R. A.; Hutchings, J. K.

2015-12-01

The interannual and regional variability in Arctic sea ice melt has previously been characterized only in terms of surface melting. A focus on the variability in the onset of basal melt is additionally required to understand Arctic melt patterns. Monitoring basal melt provides a glimpse into the importance of ocean heating to sea ice melt. This warming is predominantly through seawater exposure due to lead opening and the associated solar warming at the ocean's surface. We present the temporal variability in basal melt onset observed by ice mass balance buoys throughout the Arctic Ocean since 2003, providing a different perspective than the satellite microwave data used to measure the onset of surface melt. We found that melt onset varies greatly, even for buoys deployed within 100km of each other. Therefore large volumes of data are necessary to accurately estimate the variability of basal melt onset. Once the variability of basal melt onset has been identified, we can investigate how this range has been changing as a response to atmospheric and oceanic warming, changes in ice morphology as well as the intensification of the ice albedo feedback.

Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, Archuleta County

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled "warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, San Miguel County, Colorado

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled "warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, Fremont County, Colorado

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled "warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, Routt County, Colorado

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled"warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, Alamosa and Saguache Counties, Colorado

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled "warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, Dolores County

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled "warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Eddy-driven stratification initiates North Atlantic spring phytoplankton blooms.

PubMed

Mahadevan, Amala; D'Asaro, Eric; Lee, Craig; Perry, Mary Jane

2012-07-06

Springtime phytoplankton blooms photosynthetically fix carbon and export it from the surface ocean at globally important rates. These blooms are triggered by increased light exposure of the phytoplankton due to both seasonal light increase and the development of a near-surface vertical density gradient (stratification) that inhibits vertical mixing of the phytoplankton. Classically and in current climate models, that stratification is ascribed to a springtime warming of the sea surface. Here, using observations from the subpolar North Atlantic and a three-dimensional biophysical model, we show that the initial stratification and resulting bloom are instead caused by eddy-driven slumping of the basin-scale north-south density gradient, resulting in a patchy bloom beginning 20 to 30 days earlier than would occur by warming.

Growing importance of atmospheric water demands on the hydrologcial condition of East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, C. E.; Ho, C. H.; Jeong, S. J.; Park, H.

2015-12-01

As global temperature increases, enhanced exchange of fresh water between the surface and atmosphere expected to make dry regions drier and wet regions wetter. This concept is well fitted for the ocean, but oversimplified for the land. How the climate change causes the complex patterns of the continental dryness change is one of challenging questions. Here we investigate the observed dryness changes of the land surface by examining the quantitative influence of several climate parameters on the background aridity changes over East Asia, containing various climate regimes from cold-arid to warm-humid regions, using observations of 189 stations covering the period from 1961 to 2010. Overall mean aridity trend is changed from negative to positive around early 1990s. The turning of dryness trend is largely influenced by sharp increase in atmospheric water demands, regardless of the background climate. The warming induced increase in water demands is larger in warm-humid regions than in cold-arid region due to the Clausius-Clapeyron relation between air temperature and saturation vapor pressure. The results show the drying of anthropogenic warming already begins and influences on the patterns of dryness change over the land surface.

Impact on short-lived climate forcers increases projected warming due to deforestation.

PubMed

Scott, C E; Monks, S A; Spracklen, D V; Arnold, S R; Forster, P M; Rap, A; Äijälä, M; Artaxo, P; Carslaw, K S; Chipperfield, M P; Ehn, M; Gilardoni, S; Heikkinen, L; Kulmala, M; Petäjä, T; Reddington, C L S; Rizzo, L V; Swietlicki, E; Vignati, E; Wilson, C

2018-01-11

The climate impact of deforestation depends on the relative strength of several biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects. In addition to affecting the exchange of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and moisture with the atmosphere and surface albedo, vegetation emits biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) that alter the formation of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), which include aerosol, ozone and methane. Here we show that a scenario of complete global deforestation results in a net positive radiative forcing (RF; 0.12 W m -2 ) from SLCFs, with the negative RF from decreases in ozone and methane concentrations partially offsetting the positive aerosol RF. Combining RFs due to CO 2 , surface albedo and SLCFs suggests that global deforestation could cause 0.8 K warming after 100 years, with SLCFs contributing 8% of the effect. However, deforestation as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario leads to zero net RF from SLCF, primarily due to nonlinearities in the aerosol indirect effect.

Deep peat warming increases surface methane and carbon dioxide emissions in a black spruce-dominated ombrotrophic bog.

PubMed

Gill, Allison L; Giasson, Marc-André; Yu, Rieka; Finzi, Adrien C

2017-12-01

Boreal peatlands contain approximately 500 Pg carbon (C) in the soil, emit globally significant quantities of methane (CH 4 ), and are highly sensitive to climate change. Warming associated with global climate change is likely to increase the rate of the temperature-sensitive processes that decompose stored organic carbon and release carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and CH 4 . Variation in the temperature sensitivity of CO 2 and CH 4 production and increased peat aerobicity due to enhanced growing-season evapotranspiration may alter the nature of peatland trace gas emission. As CH 4 is a powerful greenhouse gas with 34 times the warming potential of CO 2 , it is critical to understand how factors associated with global change will influence surface CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes. Here, we leverage the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) climate change manipulation experiment to understand the impact of a 0-9°C gradient in deep belowground warming ("Deep Peat Heat", DPH) on peat surface CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes. We find that DPH treatments increased both CO 2 and CH 4 emission. Methane production was more sensitive to warming than CO 2 production, decreasing the C-CO 2 :C-CH 4 of the respired carbon. Methane production is dominated by hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis but deep peat warming increased the δ 13 C of CH 4 suggesting an increasing contribution of acetoclastic methanogenesis to total CH 4 production with warming. Although the total quantity of C emitted from the SPRUCE Bog as CH 4 is <2%, CH 4 represents >50% of seasonal C emissions in the highest-warming treatments when adjusted for CO 2 equivalents on a 100-year timescale. These results suggest that warming in boreal regions may increase CH 4 emissions from peatlands and result in a positive feedback to ongoing warming. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Research Spotlight: Corals expanding poleward due to warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tretkoff, Ernie

2011-04-01

Corals are important organisms for ecosystems and are sensitive indicators of the effects of climate warming. While corals are bleaching and dying in tropical areas due to climate warming, a new study shows that in temperate areas they are expanding their range poleward as water temperatures increase. Yamano et al. used 80 years of records to study the range of corals around Japan. Sea surface temperatures have risen in these temperate areas during that time. They found that four of the nine species of coral they studied expanded their range northward since the 1930s, while none had its range shrink southward. The corals expanded northward as quickly as 14 kilometers per year. The study suggests that rapid modifications of temperate coastal ecosystems could be taking place. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2010GL046474, 2011)

Heterogeneous Sensitivity of Tropical Precipitation Extremes during Growth and Mature Phases of Atmospheric Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parhi, P.; Giannini, A.; Lall, U.; Gentine, P.

2016-12-01

Assessing and managing risks posed by climate variability and change is challenging in the tropics, from both a socio-economic and a scientific perspective. Most of the vulnerable countries with a limited climate adaptation capability are in the tropics. However, climate projections, particularly of extreme precipitation, are highly uncertain there. The CMIP5 (Coupled Model Inter- comparison Project - Phase 5) inter-model range of extreme precipitation sensitivity to the global temperature under climate change is much larger in the tropics as compared to the extra-tropics. It ranges from nearly 0% to greater than 30% across models (O'Gorman 2012). The uncertainty is also large in historical gauge or satellite based observational records. These large uncertainties in the sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes highlight the need to better understand how tropical precipitation extremes respond to warming. We hypothesize that one of the factors explaining the large uncertainty is due to differing sensitivities during different phases of warming. We consider the `growth' and `mature' phases of warming under climate variability case- typically associated with an El Niño event. In the remote tropics (away from tropical Pacific Ocean), the response of the precipitation extremes during the two phases can be through different pathways: i) a direct and fast changing radiative forcing in an atmospheric column, acting top-down due to the tropospheric warming, and/or ii) an indirect effect via changes in surface temperatures, acting bottom-up through surface water and energy fluxes. We also speculate that the insights gained here might be useful in interpreting the large sensitivity under climate change scenarios, since the physical mechanisms during the two warming phases under climate variability case, have some correspondence with an increasing and stabilized green house gas emission scenarios.

Temperature Trends in the Tropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere: Connections with Sea Surface Temperatures and Implications for Water Vapor and Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garfinkel, C. I.; Waugh, D. W.; Oman, L. D.; Wang, L.; Hurwitz, M. M.

2013-01-01

Satellite observations and chemistry-climate model experiments are used to understand the zonal structure of tropical lower stratospheric temperature, water vapor, and ozone trends. The warming in the tropical upper troposphere over the past 30 years is strongest near the Indo-Pacific warm pool, while the warming trend in the western and central Pacific is much weaker. In the lower stratosphere, these trends are reversed: the historical cooling trend is strongest over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and is weakest in the western and central Pacific. These zonal variations are stronger than the zonal-mean response in boreal winter. Targeted experiments with a chemistry-climate model are used to demonstrate that sea surface temperature (hereafter SST) trends are driving the zonal asymmetry in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends. Warming SSTs in the Indian Ocean and in the warm pool region have led to enhanced moist heating in the upper troposphere, and in turn to a Gill-like response that extends into the lower stratosphere. The anomalous circulation has led to zonal structure in the ozone and water vapor trends near the tropopause, and subsequently to less water vapor entering the stratosphere. The radiative impact of these changes in trace gases is smaller than the direct impact of the moist heating. Projected future SSTs appear to drive a temperature and water vapor response whose zonal structure is similar to the historical response. In the lower stratosphere, the changes in water vapor and temperature due to projected future SSTs are of similar strength to, though slightly weaker than, that due directly to projected future CO2, ozone, and methane.

Response of the global surface ozone distribution to Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature changes: implications for long-range transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Kan; Liu, Junfeng; Ban-Weiss, George; Zhang, Jiachen; Tao, Wei; Cheng, Yanli; Tao, Shu

2017-07-01

The response of surface ozone (O3) concentrations to basin-scale warming and cooling of Northern Hemisphere oceans is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Idealized, spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of ±1 °C are individually superimposed onto the North Pacific, North Atlantic, and North Indian oceans. Our simulations suggest large seasonal and regional variability in surface O3 in response to SST anomalies, especially in the boreal summer. The responses of surface O3 associated with basin-scale SST warming and cooling have similar magnitude but are opposite in sign. Increasing the SST by 1 °C in one of the oceans generally decreases the surface O3 concentrations from 1 to 5 ppbv. With fixed emissions, SST increases in a specific ocean basin in the Northern Hemisphere tend to increase the summertime surface O3 concentrations over upwind regions, accompanied by a widespread reduction over downwind continents. We implement the integrated process rate (IPR) analysis in CESM and find that meteorological O3 transport in response to SST changes is the key process causing surface O3 perturbations in most cases. During the boreal summer, basin-scale SST warming facilitates the vertical transport of O3 to the surface over upwind regions while significantly reducing the vertical transport over downwind continents. This process, as confirmed by tagged CO-like tracers, indicates a considerable suppression of intercontinental O3 transport due to increased tropospheric stability at lower midlatitudes induced by SST changes. Conversely, the responses of chemical O3 production to regional SST warming can exert positive effects on surface O3 levels over highly polluted continents, except South Asia, where intensified cloud loading in response to North Indian SST warming depresses both the surface air temperature and solar radiation, and thus photochemical O3 production. Our findings indicate a robust linkage between basin-scale SST variability and continental surface O3 pollution, which should be considered in regional air quality management.

Influence of global warming on western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensities during 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Nam-Young; Yang, Se-Hwan; Elsner, James

2017-04-01

The climate of 2015 was characterized by a strong El Niño, global warmth, and record-setting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity for western North Pacific typhoons. In this study, the highest TC intensity in 32 years (1984-2015) is shown to be a consequence of above normal TC activity—following natural internal variation—and greater efficiency of intensity. The efficiency of intensity (EINT) is termed the 'blasting' effect and refers to typhoon intensification at the expense of occurrence. Statistical models show that the EINT is mostly due to the anomalous warmth in the environment as indicated by global mean sea-surface temperature. In comparison, the EINT due to El Niño is negligible. This implies that the record-setting intensity of 2015 might not have occurred without environmental warming and suggests that a year with even greater TC intensity is possible in the near future when above normal activity coincides with another record EINT due to continuous warming.

Sensitivity of the Antarctic surface mass balance to oceanic perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kittel, C.; Amory, C.; Agosta, C.; Fettweis, X.

2017-12-01

Regional climate models (RCMs) are suitable numerical tools to study the surface mass balance (SMB) of the wide polar ice sheets due to their high spatial resolution and polar-adapted physics. Nonetheless, RCMs are driven at their boundaries and over the ocean by reanalysis or global climate model (GCM) products and are thus influenced by potential biases in these large-scale fields. These biases can be significant for both the atmosphere and the sea surface conditions (i.e. sea ice concentration and sea surface temperature). With the RCM MAR, a set of sensitivity experiments has been realized to assess the direct response of the SMB of the Antarctic ice sheet to oceanic perturbations. MAR is forced by ERA-Interim and anomalies based on mean GCM biases are introduced in sea surface conditions. Results show significant increases (decreases) of liquid and solid precipitation due to biases related to warm (cold) oceans. As precipitation is mainly caused by low-pressure systems that intrude into the continent and do not penetrate far inland, coastal areas are more sensitive than inland regions. Furthermore, warm ocean representative biases lead to anomalies as large as anomalies simulated by other RCMs or GCMs for the end of the 21st century.

The Greenhouse and Anti-Greenhouse Effects on Titan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McKay, C. P.; Cuzzi, Jeffrey N. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

Titan is the largest moon of Saturn and is the only moon in the solar system with a substantial atmosphere. Its atmosphere is mostly made of nitrogen, with a few percent CH4, 0.1% H2 and an uncertain level of Ar (less than 10%). The surface pressure is 1.5 atms and the surface temperature is 95 K, decreasing to 71 at the tropopause before rising to stratospheric temperatures of 180 K. In pressure and composition Titan's atmosphere is the closest twin to Earth's. The surface of Titan remains unknown, hidden by the thick smog layer, but it may be an ocean of liquid methane and ethane. Titan's atmosphere has a greenhouse effect which is much stronger than the Earth's - 92% of the surface warming is due to greenhouse radiation. However an organic smog layer in the upper atmosphere produces an anti-greenhouse effect that cuts the greenhouse warming in half - removing 35% of the incoming solar radiation. Models suggest that during its formation Titan's atmosphere was heated to high temperatures due to accretional energy. This was followed by a cold Triton-like period which gradually warmed to the present conditions. The coupled greenhouse and haze anti-greenhouse may be relevant to recent suggestions for haze shielding of a CH4 - NH3 early atmosphere on Earth or Mars. When the NASA/ESA mission to the Saturn System, Cassini, launches in a few years it will carry a probe that will be sent to the surface of Titan and show us this world that is strange and yet in many ways similar to our own.

Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, X.; Xia, Y.; Yan, Y.; Feng, W.; Huang, F.; Yang, X. Q.

2017-12-01

By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO2 concentration, ENSO characteristics are compared pre- and post- global warming. The main results are as follows. Due to global warming, the maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western Pacific (La Niña-like background warming) and the tropical eastern Pacific (El Niño-like background warming) for observations and model, respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the tropical Pacific. The La Niña-like background warming induces intense surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On the contrary, the El Niño-like background warming causes westerly winds in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling eastward. Under the La Niña-like background warming, ENSO tends to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called "Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO)". However, the so-called "Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO)" is likely formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Niño-like background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, and especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El Niño-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly applies to extreme El Niño events, which is caused by earlier outbreak of the westerly wind bursts, shallower climatological thermocline depth and weaker "discharge" rate of the ENSO warm signal in response to global warming. Results from both observations and the model also show that the frequency of ENSO events greatly increases due to global warming, and many more extreme El Niño and La Niña events appear under the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, respectively. This study reconciles the phenomena and mechanisms of different characteristics of ENSO changes in observations and models.

Super Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of extreme hourly precipitation and its relation to large-scale atmospheric conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenderink, Geert; Barbero, Renaud; Loriaux, Jessica; Fowler, Hayley

2017-04-01

Present-day precipitation-temperature scaling relations indicate that hourly precipitation extremes may have a response to warming exceeding the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation; for The Netherlands the dependency on surface dew point temperature follows two times the CC relation corresponding to 14 % per degree. Our hypothesis - as supported by a simple physical argument presented here - is that this 2CC behaviour arises from the physics of convective clouds. So, we think that this response is due to local feedbacks related to the convective activity, while other large scale atmospheric forcing conditions remain similar except for the higher temperature (approximately uniform warming with height) and absolute humidity (corresponding to the assumption of unchanged relative humidity). To test this hypothesis, we analysed the large-scale atmospheric conditions accompanying summertime afternoon precipitation events using surface observations combined with a regional re-analysis for the data in The Netherlands. Events are precipitation measurements clustered in time and space derived from approximately 30 automatic weather stations. The hourly peak intensities of these events again reveal a 2CC scaling with the surface dew point temperature. The temperature excess of moist updrafts initialized at the surface and the maximum cloud depth are clear functions of surface dew point temperature, confirming the key role of surface humidity on convective activity. Almost no differences in relative humidity and the dry temperature lapse rate were found across the dew point temperature range, supporting our theory that 2CC scaling is mainly due to the response of convection to increases in near surface humidity, while other atmospheric conditions remain similar. Additionally, hourly precipitation extremes are on average accompanied by substantial large-scale upward motions and therefore large-scale moisture convergence, which appears to accelerate with surface dew point. This increase in large-scale moisture convergence appears to be consequence of latent heat release due to the convective activity as estimated from the quasi-geostrophic omega equation. Consequently, most hourly extremes occur in precipitation events with considerable spatial extent. Importantly, this event size appears to increase rapidly at the highest dew point temperature range, suggesting potentially strong impacts of climatic warming.

Arctic ocean radiative fluxes and cloud forcing estimated from the ISCCP C2 cloud dataset, 1983-1990

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schweiger, Axel J.; Key, Jeffrey R.

1994-01-01

Radiative fluxes and cloud forcings for the ocean areas of the Arctic are computed from the monthly cloud product of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) for 1983-90. Spatially averaged short-wave fluxes are compared well with climatological values, while downwelling longwave fluxes are significantly lower. This is probably due to the fact that the ISCCP cloud amounts are underestimates. Top-of-the-atmosphere radiative fluxes are in excellent agreement with measurements from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). Computed cloud forcings indicate that clouds have a warming effect at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere during winter and a cooling effect during summer. The net radiative effect of clouds is larger at the surface during winter but greater at the top of the atmosphere during summer. Overall the net radiative effect of clouds at the top of the atmosphere is one of cooling. This is in contrast to a previous result from ERBE data showing arctic cloud forcings have a net warming effect. Sensitivities to errors in input parameters are generally greater during winter with cloud amount being the most important paarameter. During summer the surface radiation balance is most sensitive to errors in the measurements of surface reflectance. The results are encouraging, but the estimated error of 20 W/sq m in surface net radiative fluxes is too large, given that estimates of the net radiative warming effect due to a doubling of CO2 are on the order of 4 W/sq m. Because it is difficult to determine the accuracy of results with existing in situ observations, it is recommended that the development of improved algorithms for the retrieval of surface radiative properties be accompanied by the simultaneous assembly of validation datasets.

Suppression of ENSO in a coupled model without water vapor feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, A.; Manabe, S.

We examine 800-year time series of internally generated variability in both a coupled ocean-atmosphere model where water vapor anomalies are not allowed to interact with longwave radiation and one where they are. The ENSO-like phenomenon in the experiment without water vapor feedback is drastically suppressed both in amplitude and geographic extent relative to the experiment with water vapor feedback. Surprisingly, the reduced amplitude of ENSO-related sea surface temperature anomalies in the model without water vapor feedback cannot be attributed to greater longwave damping of sea surface temperature. (Differences between the two experiments in radiative feedback due to clouds counterbalance almost perfectly the differences in radiative feedback due to water vapor.) Rather, the interaction between water vapor anomalies and longwave radiation affects the ENSO-like phenomenon through its influence on the vertical structure of radiative heating: Because of the changes in water vapor associated with it, a given warm equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly is associated with a radiative heating profile that is much more gravitationally unstable when water vapor feedback is present. The warm sea surface temperature anomaly therefore results in more convection in the experiment with water vapor feedback. The increased convection, in turn, is related to a larger westerly wind-stress anomaly, which creates a larger decrease in upwelling of cold water, thereby enhancing the magnitude of the original warm sea surface temperature anomaly. In this manner, the interaction between water vapor anomalies and longwave radiation magnifies the air-sea interactions at the heart of the ENSO phenomenon; without this interaction, the coupling between sea surface temperature and wind stress is effectively reduced, resulting in smaller amplitude ENSO episodes with a more limited geographical extent.

Enhanced Surface Warming and Accelerated Snow Melt in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau Induced by Absorbing Aerosols

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K.; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lee, Woo-Seop

2010-01-01

Numerical experiments with the NASA finite-volume general circulation model show that heating of the atmosphere by dust and black carbon can lead to widespread enhanced warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and accelerated snow melt in the western TP and Himalayas. During the boreal spring, a thick aerosol layer, composed mainly of dust transported from adjacent deserts and black carbon from local emissions, builds up over the Indo-Gangetic Plain, against the foothills of the Himalaya and the TP. The aerosol layer, which extends from the surface to high elevation (approx.5 km), heats the mid-troposphere by absorbing solar radiation. The heating produces an atmospheric dynamical feedback the so-called elevated-heat-pump (EHP) effect, which increases moisture, cloudiness, and deep convection over northern India, as well as enhancing the rate of snow melt in the Himalayas and TP. The accelerated melting of snow is mostly confined to the western TP, first slowly in early April and then rapidly from early to mid-May. The snow cover remains reduced from mid-May through early June. The accelerated snow melt is accompanied by similar phases of enhanced warming of the atmosphere-land system of the TP, with the atmospheric warming leading the surface warming by several days. Surface energy balance analysis shows that the short-wave and long-wave surface radiative fluxes strongly offset each other, and are largely regulated by the changes in cloudiness and moisture over the TP. The slow melting phase in April is initiated by an effective transfer of sensible heat from a warmer atmosphere to land. The rapid melting phase in May is due to an evaporation-snow-land feedback coupled to an increase in atmospheric moisture over the TP induced by the EHP effect.

Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GOES GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

2004-01-01

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

Warm Rain Processes over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GEOS GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

2004-01-01

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

Observed Thermal Impacts of Wind Farms Over Northern Illinois.

PubMed

Slawsky, Lauren M; Zhou, Liming; Baidya Roy, Somnath; Xia, Geng; Vuille, Mathias; Harris, Ronald A

2015-06-25

This paper assesses impacts of three wind farms in northern Illinois using land surface temperature (LST) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites for the period 2003-2013. Changes in LST between two periods (before and after construction of the wind turbines) and between wind farm pixels and nearby non-wind-farm pixels are quantified. An areal mean increase in LST by 0.18-0.39 °C is observed at nighttime over the wind farms, with the geographic distribution of this warming effect generally spatially coupled with the layout of the wind turbines (referred to as the spatial coupling), while there is no apparent impact on daytime LST. The nighttime LST warming effect varies with seasons, with the strongest warming in winter months of December-February, and the tightest spatial coupling in summer months of June-August. Analysis of seasonal variations in wind speed and direction from weather balloon sounding data and Automated Surface Observing System hourly observations from nearby stations suggest stronger winds correspond to seasons with greater warming and larger downwind impacts. The early morning soundings in Illinois are representative of the nighttime boundary layer and exhibit strong temperature inversions across all seasons. The strong and relatively shallow inversion in summer leaves warm air readily available to be mixed down and spatially well coupled with the turbine. Although the warming effect is strongest in winter, the spatial coupling is more erratic and spread out than in summer. These results suggest that the observed warming signal at nighttime is likely due to the net downward transport of heat from warmer air aloft to the surface, caused by the turbulent mixing in the wakes of the spinning turbine rotor blades.

Observed Thermal Impacts of Wind Farms Over Northern Illinois

PubMed Central

Slawsky, Lauren M.; Zhou, Liming; Baidya Roy, Somnath; Xia, Geng; Vuille, Mathias; Harris, Ronald A.

2015-01-01

This paper assesses impacts of three wind farms in northern Illinois using land surface temperature (LST) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites for the period 2003–2013. Changes in LST between two periods (before and after construction of the wind turbines) and between wind farm pixels and nearby non-wind-farm pixels are quantified. An areal mean increase in LST by 0.18–0.39 °C is observed at nighttime over the wind farms, with the geographic distribution of this warming effect generally spatially coupled with the layout of the wind turbines (referred to as the spatial coupling), while there is no apparent impact on daytime LST. The nighttime LST warming effect varies with seasons, with the strongest warming in winter months of December-February, and the tightest spatial coupling in summer months of June-August. Analysis of seasonal variations in wind speed and direction from weather balloon sounding data and Automated Surface Observing System hourly observations from nearby stations suggest stronger winds correspond to seasons with greater warming and larger downwind impacts. The early morning soundings in Illinois are representative of the nighttime boundary layer and exhibit strong temperature inversions across all seasons. The strong and relatively shallow inversion in summer leaves warm air readily available to be mixed down and spatially well coupled with the turbine. Although the warming effect is strongest in winter, the spatial coupling is more erratic and spread out than in summer. These results suggest that the observed warming signal at nighttime is likely due to the net downward transport of heat from warmer air aloft to the surface, caused by the turbulent mixing in the wakes of the spinning turbine rotor blades. PMID:26121613

How does whole ecosystem warming of a peatland affect methane production and consumption?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopple, A.; Brunik, K.; Keller, J.; Pfeifer-Meister, L.; Woerndle, G.; Zalman, C.; Hanson, P.; Bridgham, S. D.

2017-12-01

Peatlands are among Earth's most important terrestrial ecosystems due to their massive soil carbon (C) stores and significant release of methane (CH4) into the atmosphere. Methane has a sustained-flux global warming potential 45-times greater than carbon dioxide (CO2), and the accuracy of Earth system model projections relies on our mechanistic understanding of peatland CH4 cycling in the context of environmental change. The objective of this study was to determine, under in situ conditions, how heating of the peat profile affects ecosystem-level anaerobic C cycling. We assessed the response of CO2 and CH4 production, as well as the anaerobic oxidation of CH4 (AOM), in a boreal peatland following 13 months of deep peat heating (DPH) and 16 months of subsequent whole-ecosystem warming (surface and deep heating; WEW) as part of the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) project in northern Minnesota, USA. The study uses a regression-based experimental design including 5 temperature treatments that warmed the entire 2 m peat profile from 0 to +9 °C above ambient temperature. Soil cores were collected at multiple depths (25-200 cm) from each experimental chamber at the SPRUCE site and anaerobically incubated at in situ temperatures for 1-2 weeks. Methane and CO2 production in surface peat were positively correlated with elevated temperature, but no consistent temperature response was found at depth (75-200 cm) following DPH. However, during WEW, we observed significant increases in both surface and deep peat methanogenesis with increasing temperature. Surface peat had greater CH4 production rates than deeper peat, implying that the increased CH4 emissions observed in the field were largely driven by surface peat warming. The CO2:CH4 ratio was inversely correlated with temperature across all depths following 16 months of WEW, indicating that the entire peat profile is becoming more methanogenic with warming. We also observed AOM throughout the whole peat profile, with the highest rates observed at the surface and initial data suggesting a positive correlation with increasing temperature. While SPRUCE will continue for many years, our initial results suggest that the vast C stores at depth in peatlands are minimally responsive to warming and any response will be driven largely by surface peat.

Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaniego, L.; Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Wanders, N.; Rakovec, O.; Pan, M.; Zink, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Marx, A.

2018-05-01

Anthropogenic warming is anticipated to increase soil moisture drought in the future. However, projections are accompanied by large uncertainty due to varying estimates of future warming. Here, using an ensemble of hydrological and land-surface models, forced with bias-corrected downscaled general circulation model output, we estimate the impacts of 1-3 K global mean temperature increases on soil moisture droughts in Europe. Compared to the 1.5 K Paris target, an increase of 3 K—which represents current projected temperature change—is found to increase drought area by 40% (±24%), affecting up to 42% (±22%) more of the population. Furthermore, an event similar to the 2003 drought is shown to become twice as frequent; thus, due to their increased occurrence, events of this magnitude will no longer be classified as extreme. In the absence of effective mitigation, Europe will therefore face unprecedented increases in soil moisture drought, presenting new challenges for adaptation across the continent.

Amplification of warming due to intensification of zonal circulation in the mid-latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, Genrikh; Ivanov, Nikolai; Kharlanenkova, Natalia; Kuzmina, Svetlana

2015-04-01

We propose a new index to evaluate the impact of atmospheric zonal transport oscillations on inter-annual variability and trends of average air temperature in mid-latitudes, Northern Hemisphere and globe. A simple model of mid-latitude channel "ocean-land-atmosphere" was used to produce the analytic relationship between the zonal circulation and the land-ocean temperature contrast which was used as a basis for index. An inverse relationship was found between indexes and average mid-latitude, hemisphere and global temperatures during the cold half of year and opposite one in summer. These relationships keep under 400 mb height. In winter relationship describes up to 70, 50 and 40 % of surface air temperature inter-annual variability of these averages, respectively. The contribution of zonal circulation to the increase in the average surface air temperature during warming period 1969-2008 reaches 75% in the mid-latitudes and 40% in the Northern Hemisphere. Proposed mid-latitude index correlates negatively with surface air temperature in the Arctic except summer. ECHAM4 projections with the A1B scenario show that increase of zonal circulation defines more than 74% of the warming in the Northern Hemisphere for 2001-2100. Our analysis confirms that the proposed index is an effective indicator of the climate change caused by variations of the zonal circulation that arise due to anthropogenic and/or natural global forcing mechanisms.

Urbanization Causes Increased Cloud Base Height and Decreased Fog in Coastal Southern California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, A. Park; Schwartz, Rachel E.; Iacobellis, Sam; Seager, Richard; Cook, Benjamin I.; Still, Christopher J.; Husak, Gregory; Michaelsen, Joel

2015-01-01

Subtropical marine stratus clouds regulate coastal and global climate, but future trends in these clouds are uncertain. In coastal Southern California (CSCA), interannual variations in summer stratus cloud occurrence are spatially coherent across 24 airfields and dictated by positive relationships with stability above the marine boundary layer (MBL) and MBL height. Trends, however, have been spatially variable since records began in the mid-1900s due to differences in nighttime warming. Among CSCA airfields, differences in nighttime warming, but not daytime warming, are strongly and positively related to fraction of nearby urban cover, consistent with an urban heat island effect. Nighttime warming raises the near-surface dew point depression, which lifts the altitude of condensation and cloud base height, thereby reducing fog frequency. Continued urban warming, rising cloud base heights, and associated effects on energy and water balance would profoundly impact ecological and human systems in highly populated and ecologically diverse CSCA.

Attribution of the 2015 record high sea surface temperatures over the central equatorial Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, In-Hong; Min, Seung-Ki; Yeh, Sang-Wook; Weller, Evan; Kim, Seon Tae

2017-04-01

This study assessed the anthropogenic contribution to the 2015 record-breaking high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed in the central equatorial Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean. Considering a close link between extreme warm events in these regions, we conducted a joint attribution analysis using a fraction of attributable risk approach. Probability of occurrence of such extreme anomalies and long-term trends for the two oceanic regions were compared between CMIP5 multi-model simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Results show that the excessive warming in both regions is well beyond the range of natural variability and robustly attributable to human activities due to greenhouse gas increase. We further explored associated mechanisms including the Bjerknes feedback and background anthropogenic warming. It is concluded that background warming was the main contribution to the 2015 extreme SST event over the central equatorial Pacific Ocean on a developing El Niño condition, which in turn induced the extreme SST event over the tropical Indian Ocean through the atmospheric bridge effect.

Atmospheric footprint of the recent warming slowdown

PubMed Central

Liu, Bo; Zhou, Tianjun

2017-01-01

Growing body of literature has developed to detect the role of ocean heat uptake and transport in the recent warming slowdown between 1998–2013; however, the atmospheric footprint of the slowdown in dynamical and physical processes remains unclear. Here, we divided recent decades into the recent hiatus period and the preceding warming period (1983–1998) to investigate the atmospheric footprint. We use a process-resolving analysis method to quantify the contributions of different processes to the total temperature changes. We show that the increasing rate of global mean tropospheric temperature was also reduced during the hiatus period. The decomposed trends due to physical processes, including surface albedo, water vapour, cloud, surface turbulent fluxes and atmospheric dynamics, reversed the patterns between the two periods. The changes in atmospheric heat transport are coupled with changes in the surface latent heat flux across the lower troposphere (below approximately 800 hPa) and with cloud-related processes in the upper troposphere (above approximately 600 hPa) and were underpinned by strengthening/weakening Hadley Circulation and Walker Circulation during the warming/hiatus period. This dynamical coupling experienced a phase transition between the two periods, reminding us of the importance of understanding the atmospheric footprint, which constitutes an essential part of internal climate variability. PMID:28084457

Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

PubMed Central

Salzmann, Marc

2016-01-01

Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K−1 decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge. PMID:27386558

Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

PubMed

Salzmann, Marc

2016-06-01

Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K(-1) decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge.

Response of water temperature to surface wave effects in the Baltic Sea: simulations with the coupled NEMO-WAM model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alari, Victor; Staneva, Joanna; Breivik, Øyvind; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Mogensen, Kristian; Janssen, Peter

2016-04-01

The effects of wind waves on the Baltic Sea water temperature has been studied by coupling the hydrodynamical model NEMO with the wave model WAM. The wave forcing terms that have been taken into consideration are: Stokes-Coriolis force, seastate dependent energy flux and sea-state dependent momentum flux. The combined role of these processes as well as their individual contributions on simulated temperature is analysed. The results indicate a pronounced effect of waves on surface temperature, on the distribution of vertical temperature and on upwellinǵs. In northern parts of the Baltic Sea a warming of the surface layer occurs in the wave included simulations. This in turn reduces the cold bias between simulated and measured data. The warming is primarily caused by sea-state dependent energy flux. Wave induced cooling is mostly observed in near coastal areas and is mainly due to Stokes-Coriolis forcing. The latter triggers effect of intensifying upwellings near the coasts, depending on the direction of the wind. The effect of sea-state dependent momentum flux is predominantly to warm the surface layer. During the summer the wave induced water temperature changes were up to 1 °C.

Sea Surface Warming and Increased Aridity at Mid-latitudes during Eocene Thermal Maximum 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harper, D. T.; Zeebe, R. E.; Hoenisch, B.; Schrader, C.; Lourens, L. J.; Zachos, J. C.

2017-12-01

Early Eocene hyperthermals, i.e. abrupt global warming events characterized by the release of isotopically light carbon to the atmosphere, can provide insight into the sensitivity of the Earth's climate system and hydrologic cycle to carbon emissions. Indeed, the largest Eocene hyperthermal, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), has provided one case study of extreme and abrupt global warming, with a mass of carbon release roughly equivalent to total modern fossil fuel reserves and a release rate 1/10 that of modern. Global sea surface temperatures (SST) increased by 5-8°C during the PETM and extensive evidence from marine and terrestrial records indicates significant shifts in the hydrologic cycle consistent with an increase in poleward moisture transport in response to surface warming. The second largest Eocene hyperthermal, Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM-2) provides an additional calibration point for determining the sensitivity of climate and the hydrologic cycle to massive carbon release. Marine carbon isotope excursions (CIE) and warming at the ETM-2 were roughly half as large as at the PETM, but reliable evidence for shifts in temperature and the hydrologic cycle are sparse for the ETM-2. Here, we utilize coupled planktic foraminiferal δ18O and Mg/Ca to determine ΔSST and ΔSSS (changes in sea surface temperature and salinity) for ETM-2 at ODP Sites 1209 (28°N paleolatitude in the Pacific) and 1265 (42°S paleolatitude in the S. Atlantic), accounting for potential pH influence on the two proxies by using LOSCAR climate-carbon cycle simulated ΔpH. Our results indicate a warming of 2-4°C at both mid-latitude sites and an increase in SSS of 1-3ppt, consistent with simulations of early Paleogene hydroclimate that suggest an increase in low- to mid-latitude aridity due to an intensification of moisture transport to high-latitudes. Furthermore, the magnitude of the CIE and warming for ETM-2 scales with the CIE and warming for the PETM, suggesting that the source of carbon was similar for both events.

Coastal water monitoring using a vertical profiler

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Dong Guk; Seo, Seongbong; Park, Young-Gyu; Min, Hong Sik

2017-04-01

Using a profiler system, the Aqualog, composed of a moored wire and a carrier in which a CTD was installed, we have been monitoring coastal water in Korea since August 2016. With this monitoring system, we were able to observe rapid warming of surface water that resulted in large damage to fish farms. The profiles showed that the warming was associated with low salinity water due to the fresh water discharge from the Yangtze River. We also observed change in water properties due to a typhoon. Along the Korean coast there are many aquafarms, which are becoming more vulnerable to environmental change. With the data from the profiler we would be able to help the aquafarms to sustain.

Amplification of global warming through pH dependence of DMS production simulated with a fully coupled Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwinger, Jörg; Tjiputra, Jerry; Goris, Nadine; Six, Katharina D.; Kirkevåg, Alf; Seland, Øyvind; Heinze, Christoph; Ilyina, Tatiana

2017-08-01

We estimate the additional transient surface warming ΔTs caused by a potential reduction of marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) production due to ocean acidification under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 until the year 2200. Since we use a fully coupled Earth system model, our results include a range of feedbacks, such as the response of marine DMS production to the additional changes in temperature and sea ice cover. Our results are broadly consistent with the findings of a previous study that employed an offline model set-up. Assuming a medium (strong) sensitivity of DMS production to pH, we find an additional transient global warming of 0.30 K (0.47 K) towards the end of the 22nd century when DMS emissions are reduced by 7.3 Tg S yr-1 or 31 % (11.5 Tg S yr-1 or 48 %). The main mechanism behind the additional warming is a reduction of cloud albedo, but a change in shortwave radiative fluxes under clear-sky conditions due to reduced sulfate aerosol load also contributes significantly. We find an approximately linear relationship between reduction of DMS emissions and changes in top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes as well as changes in surface temperature for the range of DMS emissions considered here. For example, global average Ts changes by -0. 041 K per 1 Tg S yr-1 change in sea-air DMS fluxes. The additional warming in our model has a pronounced asymmetry between northern and southern high latitudes. It is largest over the Antarctic continent, where the additional temperature increase of 0.56 K (0.89 K) is almost twice the global average. We find that feedbacks are small on the global scale due to opposing regional contributions. The most pronounced feedback is found for the Southern Ocean, where we estimate that the additional climate change enhances sea-air DMS fluxes by about 9 % (15 %), which counteracts the reduction due to ocean acidification.

Changing Surface-Atmosphere Energy Exchange and Refreezing Capacity of the Lower Accumulation Area, West Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charalampidis, C.; van As, D.; Machguth, H.; Smeets, P.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Box, J. E.

2014-12-01

We present five years (2009-2013) of automatic weather station (AWS) data from the lower accumulation area (1840 m above sea level) of the Kangerlussuaq region, western Greenland ice sheet. The summers of 2010 and 2012 were both exceptionally warm, but only 2012 resulted in negative surface mass budget (SMB) and surface runoff. The observed runoff was due to a large ice fraction in the upper 10 m of firn that prevented melt water from percolating to available pore space below. Analysis of the in situ data reveals a relatively low 2012 summer albedo of ~0.7 as melt water was present at the surface. Consequently, during the 2012 melt season the surface absorbed 30% (213 MJ m-2) more solar radiation than in 2010. We drive a surface energy balance model with the AWS data to evaluate the seasonal and interannual variability of all surface energy fluxes. The model is able to reproduce the observed melt rates as well as the SMB for each season. While the drive for melt is solar radiation, year-to-year differences are controlled by terrestrial radiation, apart from 2012 when solar radiation dominated melt. Sensitivity tests reveal that 72% of the excess solar energy in 2012 was used for melt, corresponding to 40% (0.67 m) of the 2012 surface ablation. The remaining ablation (0.99 m) was primarily due to the relatively high atmospheric temperatures up to +2.6 °C daily average, indicating that 2012 would have been a negative SMB year in the lower accumulation area even without the melt-albedo feedback. Longer time series of SMB, regional temperature and remotely sensed albedo (MODIS) suggest that 2012 was the first negative SMB year with the lowest albedo at this elevation on record. The warming conditions of the last years resulted in enhanced melt and reduction of the refreezing capacity of the lower accumulation area. If the warming continues the lower accumulation area will be transformed into superimposed ice.

Anthropogenic effects on the subsurface thermal and groundwater environments in Osaka, Japan and Bangkok, Thailand.

PubMed

Taniguchi, Makoto; Shimada, Jun; Fukuda, Yoichi; Yamano, Makoto; Onodera, Shin-ichi; Kaneko, Shinji; Yoshikoshi, Akihisa

2009-04-15

Anthropogenic effects in both Osaka and Bangkok were evaluated to compare the relationships between subsurface environment and the development stage of both cities. Subsurface thermal anomalies due to heat island effects were found in both cities. The Surface Warming Index (SWI), the departure depth from the steady geothermal gradient, was used as an indicator of the heat island effect. SWI increases (deeper) with the magnitude of heat island effect and the elapsed time starting from the surface warming. Distributions of subsurface thermal anomalies due to the heat island effect agreed well with the distribution of changes in air temperature due to the same process, which is described by the distribution of population density in both Osaka and Bangkok. Different time lags between groundwater depression and subsidence in the two cities was found. This is attributed to differences in hydrogeologic characters, such as porosity and hydraulic conductivity. We find that differences in subsurface degradations in Osaka and Bangkok, including subsurface thermal anomalies, groundwater depression, and land subsidence, depends on the difference of the development stage of urbanization and hydrogeological characters.

Simulation of Urban Heat Island Mitigation Strategies in Atlanta, GA Using High-Resolution Land Use/Land Cover Data Set to Enhance Meteorological Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crosson, William L.; Dembek, Scott; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Limaye, Ashutosh S.; Lapenta, William; Quattrochi, Dale A.; Johnson, Hoyt; Khan, Maudood

2006-01-01

The specification of land use/land cover (LULC) and associated land surface parameters in meteorological models at all scales has a major influence on modeled surface energy fluxes and boundary layer states. In urban areas, accurate representation of the land surface may be even more important than in undeveloped regions due to the large heterogeneity within the urban area. Deficiencies in the characterization of the land surface related to the spatial or temporal resolution of the data, the number of LULC classes defined, the accuracy with which they are defined, or the degree of heterogeneity of the land surface properties within each class may degrade the performance of the models. In this study, an experiment was conducted to test a new high-resolution LULC data set for meteorological simulations for the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area using a mesoscale meteorological model and to evaluate the effects of urban heat island (UHI) mitigation strategies on modeled meteorology for 2030. Simulation results showed that use of the new LULC data set reduced a major deficiency of the land use data used previously, specifically the poor representation of urban and suburban land use. Performance of the meteorological model improved substantially, with the overall daytime cold bias reduced by over 30%. UHI mitigation strategies were projected to offset much of a predicted urban warming between 2000 and 2030. In fact, for the urban core, the cooling due to UHI mitigation strategies was slightly greater than the warming associated with urbanization over this period. For the larger metropolitan area, cooling only partially offset the projected warming trend.

Climatic consequences of adopting drought-tolerant vegetation over Los Angeles as a response to California drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vahmani, P.; Ban-Weiss, G.

2016-08-01

During 2012-2014, drought in California resulted in policies to reduce water consumption. One measure pursued was replacing lawns with landscapes that minimize water consumption, such as drought-tolerant vegetation. If implemented at broad scale, this strategy would result in reductions in irrigation and changes in land surface characteristics. In this study, we employ a modified regional climate model to assess the climatic consequences of adopting drought-tolerant vegetation over the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Transforming lawns to drought-tolerant vegetation resulted in daytime warming of up to 1.9°C, largely due to decreases in irrigation that shifted surface energy partitioning toward higher sensible and lower latent heat flux. During nighttime, however, adopting drought-tolerant vegetation caused mean cooling of 3.2°C, due to changes in soil thermodynamic properties and heat exchange dynamics between the surface and subsurface. Our results show that nocturnal cooling effects, which are larger in magnitude and of great importance for public health during heat events, could counterbalance the daytime warming attributed to the studied water conservation strategy. A more aggressive implementation, assuming all urban vegetation was replaced with drought-tolerant vegetation, resulted in an average daytime cooling of 0.2°C, largely due to strengthened sea breeze patterns, highlighting the important role of land surface roughness in this coastal megacity.

Climatic consequences of adopting drought tolerant vegetation over Los Angeles as a response to California drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ban-Weiss, G. A.; Vahmani, P.

2016-12-01

During 2012-2014, drought in California resulted in policies to reduce water consumption. One measure pursued was replacing lawns with landscapes that minimize water consumption, such as drought tolerant vegetation. If implemented at broad scale, this strategy would result in reductions in irrigation, and changes in land surface characteristics. In this study, we employ a modified regional climate model to assess the climatic consequences of adopting drought tolerant vegetation over the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Transforming lawns to drought tolerant vegetation resulted in daytime warming of up to 1.9°C, largely due to decreases in irrigation that shifted surface energy partitioning toward higher sensible and lower latent heat flux. During nighttime, however, adopting drought tolerant vegetation caused mean cooling of about 3°C, due to changes in soil thermodynamic properties and heat exchange dynamics between the surface and ground. Our results show that nocturnal cooling effects, which are larger in magnitude and of great importance for public health during heat events, could counterbalance the daytime warming attributed to the studied water conservation strategy. A more aggressive implementation, assuming all urban vegetation was replaced with drought tolerant vegetation, resulted in an average daytime cooling of 0.2°C, largely due to weakened sea-breeze patterns, highlighting the important role of land surface roughness in this coastal megacity.

The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool: critical to world oceanography and world climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Deckker, Patrick

2016-12-01

The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool holds a unique place on the globe. It is a large area [>30 × 106 km2] that is characterised by permanent surface temperature >28 °C and is therefore called the `heat engine' of the globe. High convective clouds which can reach altitudes up to 15 km generate much latent heat in the process of convection and this area is therefore called the `steam engine' of the world. Seasonal and contrasting monsoonal activity over the region is the cause for a broad seasonal change of surface salinities, and since the area lies along the path of the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt, it is coined the `dilution' basin due to the high incidence of tropical rain and, away from the equator, tropical cyclones contribute to a significant drop in sea water salinity. Discussion about what may happen in the future of the Warm Pool under global warming is presented together with a description of the Warm Pool during the past, such as the Last Glacial Maximum when sea levels had dropped by ~125 m. A call for urgent monitoring of the IPWP area is justified on the grounds of the significance of this area for global oceanographic and climatological processes, but also because of the concerned threats to human population living there.

Relative roles of differential SST warming, uniform SST warming and land surface warming in determining the Walker circulation changes under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lei; Li, Tim

2017-02-01

Most of CMIP5 models projected a weakened Walker circulation in tropical Pacific, but what causes such change is still an open question. By conducting idealized numerical simulations separating the effects of the spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming, extra land surface warming and differential SST warming, we demonstrate that the weakening of the Walker circulation is attributed to the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon and South America land effects. The effect of the uniform SST warming is through so-called "richest-get-richer" mechanism. In response to a uniform surface warming, the WNP monsoon is enhanced by competing moisture with other large-scale convective branches. The strengthened WNP monsoon further induces surface westerlies in the equatorial western-central Pacific, weakening the Walker circulation. The increase of the greenhouse gases leads to a larger land surface warming than ocean surface. As a result, a greater thermal contrast occurs between American Continent and equatorial Pacific. The so-induced zonal pressure gradient anomaly forces low-level westerly anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and weakens the Walker circulation. The differential SST warming also plays a role in driving low-level westerly anomalies over tropical Pacific. But such an effect involves a positive air-sea feedback that amplifies the weakening of both east-west SST gradient and Pacific trade winds.

Climate, ocean circulation, and sea level changes under stabilization and overshoot pathways to 1.5 K warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palter, Jaime B.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Paynter, David; John, Jasmin G.

2018-06-01

The Paris Agreement has initiated a scientific debate on the role that carbon removal - or net negative emissions - might play in achieving less than 1.5 K of global mean surface warming by 2100. Here, we probe the sensitivity of a comprehensive Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) to three different atmospheric CO2 concentration pathways, two of which arrive at 1.5 K of warming in 2100 by very different pathways. We run five ensemble members of each of these simulations: (1) a standard Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5) scenario, which produces 2 K of surface warming by 2100 in our model; (2) a stabilization pathway in which atmospheric CO2 concentration never exceeds 440 ppm and the global mean temperature rise is approximately 1.5 K by 2100; and (3) an overshoot pathway that passes through 2 K of warming at mid-century, before ramping down atmospheric CO2 concentrations, as if using carbon removal, to end at 1.5 K of warming at 2100. Although the global mean surface temperature change in response to the overshoot pathway is similar to the stabilization pathway in 2100, this similarity belies several important differences in other climate metrics, such as warming over land masses, the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean acidification, sea ice coverage, and the global mean sea level change and its regional expressions. In 2100, the overshoot ensemble shows a greater global steric sea level rise and weaker AMOC mass transport than in the stabilization scenario, with both of these metrics close to the ensemble mean of RCP4.5. There is strong ocean surface cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean in response to overshoot forcing due to perturbations in the ocean circulation. Thus, overshoot forcing in this model reduces the rate of sea ice loss in the Labrador, Nordic, Ross, and Weddell seas relative to the stabilized pathway, suggesting a negative radiative feedback in response to the early rapid warming. Finally, the ocean perturbation in response to warming leads to strong pathway dependence of sea level rise in northern North American cities, with overshoot forcing producing up to 10 cm of additional sea level rise by 2100 relative to stabilization forcing.

The warming trend of ground surface temperature in the Choshui Alluvial Fan, western central Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, W.; Chang, M.; Chen, J.; Lu, W.; Huang, C. C.; Wang, Y.

2013-12-01

Heat storage in subsurface of the continents forms a fundamental component of the global energy budget and plays an important role in the climate system. Several researches revealed that subsurface temperatures were being increased to 1.8-2.8°C higher in mean ground surface temperature (GST) for some Asian cities where are experiencing a rapid growth of population. Taiwan is a subtropic-tropic island with densely populated in the coastal plains surrounding its mountains. We investigate the subsurface temperature distribution and the borehole temperature-depth profiles by using groundwater monitoring wells in years 2000 and 2010. Our data show that the western central Taiwan plain also has been experiencing a warming trend but with a higher temperatures approximately 3-4 °C of GST during the last 250 yrs. We suggest that the warming were mostly due to the land change to urbanization and agriculture. The current GSTs from our wells are approximately 25.51-26.79 °C which are higher than the current surface air temperature (SAT) of 23.65 °C. Data from Taiwan's weather stations also show 1-1.5 °C higher for the GST than the SAT at neighboring stations. The earth surface heat balance data indicate that GST higher than SAT is reasonable. More researches are needed to evaluate the interaction of GST and SAT, and how a warming GST's impact to the SAT and the climate system of the Earth.

Diurnal warming impacts on atmospheric and oceanic evolution during the suppressed phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clayson, C. A.; Roberts, J.

2016-02-01

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) represents a prominent mode of intraseasonal tropical variability as manifest by coherent large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation, convection, and thermodynamic processes. Its impacts are far-reaching with influences on monsoons, flooding, droughts, and tropical storms. The characteristic timescale of the MJO is positioned in a gap between synoptic forecasting and longer range seasonal to interannual predictions, but has been shown to be dependent on diurnally-varying sea surface temperature (SST). In this work, we leverage a wide suite of satellite products with in situ oceanographic data over the 2002-2012 period to investigate the rectification effects of strong ocean diurnal warming onto the development of intraseasonal SST variability, and whether there a detectable influence on the diurnal cycle of cloud-radiative effects in the suppressed phase of the MJO. Diurnally-varying SST is used as a conditional sampling parameter, along with AIRS/AMSU-A temperature and moisture profiles, surface winds, radiative and turbulent surface fluxes, and precipitation. We use composite daily average atmospheric BL depths, changes in lower-tropospheric stability, and moist static energy to evaluate changes in convective inhibition based on the diurnal variability of surface parcel characteristics due to turbulent heat fluxes, and compare with diurnal changes in cloud-radiative effects and precipitation. Argo floats and ocean modeling experiments are used to examine the upper ocean response. An ensemble of MJO simulations are generated using Argo profiles and satellite-derived surface forcing from which the systematic impacts of diurnal variability on the generation of the intraseasonal SST warming are evaluated. These simulations inform the importance of diurnal variations in surface boundary forcing to upper ocean mixing and the integrated contribution to SST warming over the typical duration of a suppressed phase of the MJO.

Emergence of new hydrologic regimes of surface water resources in the conterminous United States under future warming

DOE PAGES

Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Voisin, Nathalie; ...

2016-10-25

Emergence of significant changes in surface water PDF is detected across CONUS. Such emergence can be derived using global temperature increments at the national scale independent of emission scenarios but the relationship does not hold at sub-basin scale. The emergence of significant changes are due to changes in interannual variability rather than seasonal mean.

Process contributions to the intermodel spread in amplified Arctic warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boeke, R.; Taylor, P. C.

2016-12-01

The Arctic is warming at a rate more than twice the global average. This robust climate system response to an external forcing is referred to as Arctic Amplification (AA). While Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate models simulate AA, the largest intermodel spread in projected warming is also found in the Arctic. Quantifying the amount of polar warming relative to global warming influences how society adapts to climate change; a 2°C increase in global mean temperature would result in a polar warming between 4-8°C according to the intermodel spread in CMIP5 simulations. A trove of previous work has considered AA diagnostically using variations in the surface energy budget to attribute the intermodel spread in AA to an assortment of feedbacks—surface albedo, cloud, surface turbulent flux, and atmospheric and oceanic energy transport. We consider a systems-thinking approach treating AA as a process that evolves over time. We hypothesize that two specific components of the AA process are most important and influence the intermodel spread. (1) The inability of the Arctic system to effectively remove excess heat sourced from natural variability. The change in the efficiency of the `Arctic air conditioner' is thought to be due to thinner and less extensive sea ice and the resulting ice albedo feedback. (2) The process through which energy is stored in the ocean and exchanged with the atmosphere within the context of the sea ice annual cycle is also important. This study uses CMIP5 simulations from the historical and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway; an emission scenario with forcing increasing to 8.5 W m-2 by 2100) to analyze how the AA process operates in present and future climate. The intermodel spread in these processes and the influence on the spread in AA are discussed. This approach identifies models that more realistically simulate the AA process and will aid in narrowing intermodel spread in Arctic surface temperature projections.

Simulating global and local surface temperature changes due to Holocene anthropogenic land cover change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, F.; Vavrus, S. J.; Kutzbach, J. E.; Ruddiman, W. F.; Kaplan, J. O.; Krumhardt, K. M.

2015-12-01

Surface albedo changes from anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) represent the second-largest negative radiative forcing behind aerosol during the industrial era. Using a new reconstruction of ALCC during the Holocene era by Kaplan et al. [2011], we quantify the local and global temperature response induced by Holocene ALCC in the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). With 1-degree resolution of the CCSM4 slab-ocean model,we find that Holocene ALCC cause a global cooling of 0.17 °C due to the biogeophysical effects of land-atmosphere exchange of momentum, moisture, radiative and heat fluxes. On the global scale, the biogeochemical effects of Holocene ALCC from carbon emissions dominate the biogeophysical effects by causing 0.9 °C global warming. The net effects of Holocene ALCC amount to a global warming of 0.73 °C during the pre-industrial era, which is comparable to the ~0.8 °C warming during industrial times. On local to regional scales, such as parts of Europe, North America and Asia, the biogeophysical effects of Holocene ALCC are significant and comparable to the biogeochemical effect. The lack of ocean dynamics in the 1° CCSM4 slab-ocean simulations could underestimate the climate sensitivity because of the lack of feedbacks from ocean heat transport [Kutzbach et al., 2013; Manabe and Bryan, 1985]. In 1° CCSM4 fully coupled simulations, the climate sensitivity is ~65% larger than the 1° CCSM4 slab-ocean simulations during the Holocene (5.3 °C versus 3.2 °C) [Kutzbach et al., 2013]. With this greater climate sensitivity, the biogeochemical effects of Holocene ALCC could have caused a global warming of ~1.5 °C, and the net biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of Holocene ALCC could cause a global warming of 1.2 °C during the preindustrial era in our simulations, which is 50% higher than the global warming of ~0.8 °C during industrial times.

A warmer and wetter solution for early Mars and the challenges with transient warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez, Ramses M.

2017-11-01

The climate of early Mars has been hotly debated for decades. Although most investigators believe that the geology indicates the presence of surface water, disagreement has persisted regarding how warm and wet the surface must have been and how long such conditions may have existed. Although the geologic evidence is most easily explained by a persistently warm climate, the perceived difficulty that climate models have in generating warm surface conditions has seeded various models that assume a cold and glaciated early Mars punctuated by transient warming episodes. However, I use a single-column radiative convective climate model to show that it is relatively more straightforward to satisfy warm and relatively non-glaciated early Mars conditions, requiring only ∼1% H2 and 3 bar CO2 or ∼20% H2 and 0.55 bar CO2. In contrast, the reflectivity of surface ice greatly increases the difficulty to transiently warm an initially frozen surface. Surface pressure thresholds required for warm conditions increase ∼10 - 60% for transient warming models, depending on ice cover fraction. No warm solution is possible for ice cover fractions exceeding 40%, 70%, and 85% for mixed snow/ice and 25%, 35%, and 49% for fresher snow/ice at H2 concentrations of 3%, 10%, and 20%, respectively. If high temperatures (298-323 K) were required to produce the observed surface clay amounts on a transiently warm early Mars (Bishop et al), I show that such temperatures would have required surface pressures that exceed available paleopressure constraints for nearly all H2 concentrations considered (1-20%). I then argue that a warm and semi-arid climate remains the simplest and most logical solution to Mars paleoclimate.

Indian Ocean warming during 1958-2004 simulated by a climate system model and its mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Wu, Bo

2014-01-01

The mechanism responsible for Indian Ocean Sea surface temperature (SST) basin-wide warming trend during 1958-2004 is studied based on both observational data analysis and numerical experiments with a climate system model FGOALS-gl. To quantitatively estimate the relative contributions of external forcing (anthropogenic and natural forcing) and internal variability, three sets of numerical experiments are conducted, viz. an all forcing run forced by both anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols) and natural forcing (solar constant and volcanic aerosols), a natural forcing run driven by only natural forcing, and a pre-industrial control run. The model results are compared to the observations. The results show that the observed warming trend during 1958-2004 (0.5 K (47-year)-1) is largely attributed to the external forcing (more than 90 % of the total trend), while the residual is attributed to the internal variability. Model results indicate that the anthropogenic forcing accounts for approximately 98.8 % contribution of the external forcing trend. Heat budget analysis shows that the surface latent heat flux due to atmosphere and surface longwave radiation, which are mainly associated with anthropogenic forcing, are in favor of the basin-wide warming trend. The basin-wide warming is not spatially uniform, but with an equatorial IOD-like pattern in climate model. The atmospheric processes, oceanic processes and climatological latent heat flux together form an equatorial IOD-like warming pattern, and the oceanic process is the most important in forming the zonal dipole pattern. Both the anthropogenic forcing and natural forcing result in easterly wind anomalies over the equator, which reduce the wind speed, thereby lead to less evaporation and warmer SST in the equatorial western basin. Based on Bjerknes feedback, the easterly wind anomalies uplift the thermocline, which is unfavorable to SST warming in the eastern basin, and contribute to SST warming via deeper thermocline in the western basin. The easterly anomalies also drive westward anomalous equatorial currents, against the eastward climatology currents, which is in favor of the SST warming in the western basin via anomalous warm advection. Therefore, both the atmospheric and oceanic processes are in favor of the IOD-like warming pattern formation over the equator.

West Antarctic Ice Sheet cloud cover and surface radiation budget from NASA A-Train satellites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scott, Ryan C.; Lubin, Dan; Vogelmann, Andrew M.

Clouds are an essential parameter of the surface energy budget influencing the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) response to atmospheric warming and net contribution to global sea-level rise. A four-year record of NASA A-Train cloud observations is combined with surface radiation measurements to quantify the WAIS radiation budget and constrain the three-dimensional occurrence frequency, thermodynamic phase partitioning, and surface radiative effect of clouds over West Antarctica (WA). The skill of satellite-modeled radiative fluxes is confirmed through evaluation against measurements at four Antarctic sites (WAIS Divide Ice Camp, Neumayer, Syowa, and Concordia Stations). And due to perennial high-albedo snow and icemore » cover, cloud infrared emission dominates over cloud solar reflection/absorption leading to a positive net all-wave cloud radiative effect (CRE) at the surface, with all monthly means and 99.15% of instantaneous CRE values exceeding zero. The annual-mean CRE at theWAIS surface is 34 W m -2, representing a significant cloud-induced warming of the ice sheet. Low-level liquid-containing clouds, including thin liquid water clouds implicated in radiative contributions to surface melting, are widespread and most frequent in WA during the austral summer. Clouds warm the WAIS by 26 W m -2, in summer, on average, despite maximum offsetting shortwave CRE. Glaciated cloud systems are strongly linked to orographic forcing, with maximum incidence on the WAIS continuing downstream along the Transantarctic Mountains.« less

West Antarctic Ice Sheet cloud cover and surface radiation budget from NASA A-Train satellites

DOE PAGES

Scott, Ryan C.; Lubin, Dan; Vogelmann, Andrew M.; ...

2017-04-26

Clouds are an essential parameter of the surface energy budget influencing the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) response to atmospheric warming and net contribution to global sea-level rise. A four-year record of NASA A-Train cloud observations is combined with surface radiation measurements to quantify the WAIS radiation budget and constrain the three-dimensional occurrence frequency, thermodynamic phase partitioning, and surface radiative effect of clouds over West Antarctica (WA). The skill of satellite-modeled radiative fluxes is confirmed through evaluation against measurements at four Antarctic sites (WAIS Divide Ice Camp, Neumayer, Syowa, and Concordia Stations). And due to perennial high-albedo snow and icemore » cover, cloud infrared emission dominates over cloud solar reflection/absorption leading to a positive net all-wave cloud radiative effect (CRE) at the surface, with all monthly means and 99.15% of instantaneous CRE values exceeding zero. The annual-mean CRE at theWAIS surface is 34 W m -2, representing a significant cloud-induced warming of the ice sheet. Low-level liquid-containing clouds, including thin liquid water clouds implicated in radiative contributions to surface melting, are widespread and most frequent in WA during the austral summer. Clouds warm the WAIS by 26 W m -2, in summer, on average, despite maximum offsetting shortwave CRE. Glaciated cloud systems are strongly linked to orographic forcing, with maximum incidence on the WAIS continuing downstream along the Transantarctic Mountains.« less

The Effect of Elevation Bias in Interpolated Air Temperature Data Sets on Surface Warming in China During 1951-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tingting; Sun, Fubao; Ge, Quansheng; Kleidon, Axel; Liu, Wenbin

2018-02-01

Although gridded air temperature data sets share much of the same observations, different rates of warming can be detected due to different approaches employed for considering elevation signatures in the interpolation processes. Here we examine the influence of varying spatiotemporal distribution of sites on surface warming in the long-term trend and over the recent warming hiatus period in China during 1951-2015. A suspicious cooling trend in raw interpolated air temperature time series is found in the 1950s, and 91% of which can be explained by the artificial elevation changes introduced by the interpolation process. We define the regression slope relating temperature difference and elevation difference as the bulk lapse rate of -5.6°C/km, which tends to be higher (-8.7°C/km) in dry regions but lower (-2.4°C/km) in wet regions. Compared to independent experimental observations, we find that the estimated monthly bulk lapse rates work well to capture the elevation bias. Significant improvement can be achieved in adjusting the interpolated original temperature time series using the bulk lapse rate. The results highlight that the developed bulk lapse rate is useful to account for the elevation signature in the interpolation of site-based surface air temperature to gridded data sets and is necessary for avoiding elevation bias in climate change studies.

Frontolysis by surface heat flux in the Agulhas Return Current region with a focus on mixed layer processes: observation and a high-resolution CGCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohishi, Shun; Tozuka, Tomoki; Komori, Nobumasa

2016-12-01

Detailed mechanisms for frontogenesis/frontolysis of the Agulhas Return Current (ARC) Front, defined as the maximum of the meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradient at each longitude within the ARC region (40°-50°E, 55°-35°S), are investigated using observational datasets. Due to larger (smaller) latent heat release to the atmosphere on the northern (southern) side of the front, the meridional gradient of surface net heat flux (NHF) is found throughout the year. In austral summer, surface warming is weaker (stronger) on the northern (southern) side, and thus the NHF tends to relax the SST front. The weaker (stronger) surface warming, at the same time, leads to the deeper (shallower) mixed layer on the northern (southern) side. This enhances the frontolysis, because deeper (shallower) mixed layer is less (more) sensitive to surface warming. In austral winter, stronger (weaker) surface cooling on the northern (southern) side contributes to the frontolysis. However, deeper (shallower) mixed layer is induced by stronger (weaker) surface cooling on the northern (southern) side and suppresses the frontolysis, because the deeper (shallower) mixed layer is less (more) sensitive to surface cooling. Therefore, the frontolysis by the NHF becomes stronger (weaker) through the mixed layer processes in austral summer (winter). The cause of the meridional gradient of mixed layer depth is estimated using diagnostic entrainment velocity and the Monin-Obukhov depth. Furthermore, the above mechanisms obtained from the observation are confirmed using outputs from a high-resolution coupled general circulation model. Causes of model biases are also discussed.

Global climatic trends as revealed by the recorded data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ellsaesser, H.W.; MacCracken, M.C.; Walton, J.J.

Recent results from climate models have led to the prediction that a global warming due to increasing atmospheric CO/sub 2/ is now imminent, if it has not already occurred. In an effort to develop more definitive information on this question, a detailed review has been conducted of prior efforts to unravel climatic change from the various types of recorded observational data available. Most of the more definitive of the prior analyses: along with evaluative comments by the various authors: have been assembled herein. There appears little doubt that the average surface air temperature of at least northern hemisphere has beenmore » increasing since the beginning of recorded data with most of the warming occurring in a brief period circa 1920. The fragmentary early data suggest significant cooling prior to 1883 such that 25--50% of the subsequent warming may represent a return to earlier levels. Whether the overall warming constitutes a climate change remains an unresolved problem, as does the cause of the warming.« less

Dynamical amplification of Arctic and global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, Genrikh; Ivanov, Nikolai; Kharlanenkova, Natalia; Kuzmina, Svetlana; Bobylev, Leonid; Gnatiuk, Natalia; Urazgildeeva, Aleksandra

2015-04-01

The Arctic is coupled with global climate system by the atmosphere and ocean circulation that provides a major contribution to the Arctic energy budget. Therefore increase of meridional heat transport under global warming can impact on its Arctic amplification. Contribution of heat transport to the recent warming in the Arctic, Northern Hemisphere and the globe are estimated on base of reanalysis data, global climate model data and proposed special index. It is shown that significant part of linear trend during last four decades in average surface air temperature in these areas can be attributed to dynamical amplification. This attribution keeps until 400 mb height with progressive decreasing. The Arctic warming is amplified also due to an increase of humidity and cloudiness in the Arctic atmosphere that follow meridional transport gain. From October to January the Arctic warming trends are amplified as a result of ice edge retreat from the Siberian and Alaska coast and the heating of expanded volume of sea water. This investigation is supported with RFBR project 15-05-03512.

Large-Scale Ocean Circulation-Cloud Interactions Reduce the Pace of Transient Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trossman, D. S.; Palter, J. B.; Merlis, T. M.; Huang, Y.; Xia, Y.

2016-01-01

Changes to the large scale oceanic circulation are thought to slow the pace of transient climate change due, in part, to their influence on radiative feedbacks. Here we evaluate the interactions between CO2-forced perturbations to the large-scale ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback in a climate model. Both the change of the ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback strongly influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of surface and ocean warming. Changes in the ocean circulation reduce the amount of transient global warming caused by the radiative cloud feedback by helping to maintain low cloud coverage in the face of global warming. The radiative cloud feedback is key in affecting atmospheric meridional heat transport changes and is the dominant radiative feedback mechanism that responds to ocean circulation change. Uncertainty in the simulated ocean circulation changes due to CO2 forcing may contribute a large share of the spread in the radiative cloud feedback among climate models.

Summer precipitation anomalies in Asia and North America induced by Eurasian non-monsoon land heating versus ENSO.

PubMed

Zhao, Ping; Wang, Bin; Liu, Jiping; Zhou, Xiuji; Chen, Junming; Nan, Sulan; Liu, Ge; Xiao, Dong

2016-02-26

When floods ravage Asian monsoon regions in summer, megadroughts often attack extratropical North America, which feature an intercontinental contrasting precipitation anomaly between Asia and North America. However, the characteristics of the contrasting Asian-North American (CANA) precipitation anomalies and associated mechanisms have not been investigated specifically. In this article, we firmly establish this summer CANA pattern, providing evidence for a significant effect of the land surface thermal forcing over Eurasian non-monsoon regions on the CANA precipitation anomalies by observations and numerical experiments. We show that the origin of the CANA precipitation anomalies and associated anomalous anticyclones over the subtropical North Pacific and Atlantic has a deeper root in Eurasian non-monsoon land surface heating than in North American land surface heating. The ocean forcing from the ENSO is secondary and tends to be confined in the tropics. Our results have strong implications to interpretation of the feedback of global warming on hydrological cycle over Asia and North America. Under the projected global warming due to the anthropogenic forcing, the prominent surface warming over Eurasian non-monsoon regions is a robust feature which, through the mechanism discussed here, would favor a precipitation increase over Asian monsoon regions and a precipitation decrease over extratropical North America.

Isotopic composition of ice core air reveals abrupt Antarctic warming during and after Heinrich Event 1a

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgan, J. D.; Bereiter, B.; Baggenstos, D.; Kawamura, K.; Shackleton, S. A.; Severinghaus, J. P.

2017-12-01

Antarctic temperature variations during Heinrich events, as recorded by δ18O­ice­, generally show more gradual changes than the abrupt warmings seen in Greenland ice. However, quantitative temperature interpretation of the water isotope temperature proxy is difficult as the relationship between δ18Oice and temperature is not constant through time. Fortunately, ice cores offer a second temperature proxy based on trapped gases. During times of surface warming, thermal fractionation of gases in the column of unconsolidated snow (firn) on top of the ice sheet results in isotopically heavier nitrogen (N2) and argon (Ar) being trapped in the ice core bubbles. During times of surface cooling, isotopically lighter gases are trapped. Measurements of δ15N and δ40Ar can therefore be used, in combination with a model for the height of the column of firn, to quantitatively reconstruct surface temperatures. In the WAIS Divide Ice Core, the two temperature proxies show a brief disagreement during Heinrich Stadial 1. Despite δ18Oice recording relatively constant temperature, the nitrogen and argon isotopes imply an abrupt warming between 16 and 15.8 kyr BP, manifest as an abrupt 1.25oC increase in the firn temperature gradient. To our knowledge, this would be the first evidence that such abrupt climate change has been recorded in an Antarctic climate proxy. If confirmed by more detailed studies, this event may represent warming due to an extreme southward shift of the Earth's thermal equator (and the southern hemisphere westerly wind belt), caused by the 16.1 ka Heinrich Event.

Changes in ENSO amplitude under climate warming and cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yingying; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

2018-05-01

The response of ENSO amplitude to climate warming and cooling is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), in which the warming and cooling scenarios are designed by adding heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign onto the ocean surface, respectively. Results show that the warming induces an increase of the ENSO amplitude but the cooling gives rise to a decrease of the ENSO amplitude, and these changes are robust in statistics. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that the increasing (decreasing) SST tendency under climate warming (cooling) is mainly due to an enhancement (weakening) of dynamical feedback processes over the equatorial Pacific, including zonal advective (ZA) feedback, meridional advective (MA) feedback, thermocline (TH) feedback, and Ekman (EK) feedback. As the climate warms, a wind anomaly of the same magnitude across the equatorial Pacific can induce a stronger zonal current change in the east (i.e., a stronger ZA feedback), which in turn produces a greater weakening of upwelling (i.e., a stronger EK feedback) and thus a larger thermocline change (i.e., a stronger TH feedback). In response to the climate warming, in addition, the MA feedback is also strengthened due to an enhancement of the meridional SST gradient around the equator resulting from a weakening of the subtropical cells (STCs). It should be noted that the weakened STCs itself has a negative contribution to the change of the MA feedback which, however, appears to be secondary. And vice versa for the cooling case. Bjerknes linear stability (BJ) index is also evaluated for the linear stability of ENSO, with remarkably larger (smaller) BJ index found for the warming (cooling) case.

Northern Galápagos Corals Reveal Twentieth Century Warming in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez, Gloria; Cole, Julia E.; Thompson, Diane M.; Tudhope, Alexander W.

2018-02-01

Models and observations disagree regarding sea surface temperature (SST) trends in the eastern tropical Pacific. We present a new Sr/Ca-SST record that spans 1940-2010 from two Wolf Island corals (northern Galápagos). Trend analysis of the Wolf record shows significant warming on multiple timescales, which is also present in several other records and gridded instrumental products. Together, these data sets suggest that most of the eastern tropical Pacific has warmed over the twentieth century. In contrast, recent decades have been characterized by warming during boreal spring and summer (especially north of the equator), and subtropical cooling during boreal fall and winter (especially south of the equator). These SST trends are consistent with the effects of radiative forcing, mitigated by cooling due to wind forcing during boreal winter, as well as intensified upwelling and a strengthened Equatorial Undercurrent.

Quantifying the processes controlling intraseasonal mixed-layer temperature variability in the tropical Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halkides, D. J.; Waliser, Duane E.; Lee, Tong; Menemenlis, Dimitris; Guan, Bin

2015-02-01

Spatial and temporal variation of processes that determine ocean mixed-layer (ML) temperature (MLT) variability on the timescale of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) are examined in a heat-conserving ocean state estimate for years 1993-2011. We introduce a new metric for representing spatial variability of the relative importance of processes. In general, horizontal advection is most important at the Equator. Subsurface processes and surface heat flux are more important away from the Equator, with surface heat flux being the more dominant factor. Analyses at key sites are discussed in the context of local dynamics and literature. At 0°, 80.5°E, for MLT events > 2 standard deviations, ocean dynamics account for more than two thirds of the net tendency during cooling and warming phases. Zonal advection alone accounts for ˜40% of the net tendency. Moderate events (1-2 standard deviations) show more differences between events, and some are dominated by surface heat flux. At 8°S, 67°E in the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR) area, surface heat flux accounts for ˜70% of the tendency during strong cooling and warming phases; subsurface processes linked to ML depth (MLD) deepening (shoaling) during cooling (warming) account for ˜30%. MLT is more sensitive to subsurface processes in the SCTR, due to the thin MLD, thin barrier layer and raised thermocline. Results for 8°S, 67°E support assertions by Vialard et al. (2008) not previously confirmed due to measurement error that prevented budget closure and the small number of events studied. The roles of MLD, barrier layer thickness, and thermocline depth on different timescales are examined.

What Is the Atmosphere’s Effect on Earth's Surface Temperature?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Xubin

2010-04-01

It is frequently stated in textbooks and scholarly articles that the surface temperature of Earth is 33°C warmer than it would be without the atmosphere and that this difference is due to the greenhouse effect. This Forum shows that the atmosphere effect leads to warming of only 20°C. This new conclusion requires a revision to all of the relevant literature in K-12, undergraduate, and graduate education material and to science papers and reports. The greenhouse effect on Earth's surface temperature is well understood qualitatively and is regarded as basic knowledge about Earth's climate and climate change. The 33°C warming has been used to quantify the greenhouse effect of greenhouse gases, or of greenhouse gases and clouds, in K-12 educational material (e.g., http://epa.gov/climatechange/kids/greenhouse.html), undergraduate freshman introductory textbooks on weather and climate [e.g., Ahrens, 2008], and graduate textbooks on climate [e.g., Peixoto and Oort, 1992]. Some textbooks and various other publications have less stringently attributed the warming to the greenhouse effect [e.g., Wallace and Hobbs, 2006; Le Treut et al., 2007; American Meteorological Society, 2000].

Effect of simulated climate warming on the morphological and physiological traits of Elsholtzia haichowensis in copper contaminated soil.

PubMed

Guan, Ming; Jin, Zexin; Li, Junmin; Pan, Xiaocui; Wang, Suizi; Li, Yuelin

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of temperature and Cu on the morphological and physiological traits of Elsholtzia haichowensis grown in soils amended with four Cu concentrations (0, 50, 500, and 1000 mg kg(-1)) under ambient temperature and slight warming. At the same Cu concentration, the height, shoot dry weight, total plant dry weight, and root morphological parameters such as length, surface area and tip number of E. haichowensis increased due to the slight warming. The net photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance, transpiration, light use efficiency were also higher under the slight warming than under ambient temperature. The increased Cu concentrations, total Cu uptake, bioaccumulation factors and tolerance indexes of shoots and roots were also observed at the slight warming. The shoot dry weight, root dry weight, total plant dry weight and the bioaccumulation factors of shoots and roots at 50 mg Cu kg(-1) were significantly higher than those at 500 and 1000 mg Cu kg(-1) under the slight warming. Therefore, the climate warming may improve the ability of E. haichowensis to phytoremediate Cu-contaminated soil, and the ability improvement greatly depended on the Cu concentrations in soils.

Competing influences of greenhouse warming and aerosols on Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, William Ka-Ming; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2017-05-01

In this paper, we have compared and contrasted competing influences of greenhouse gases (GHG) warming and aerosol forcing on Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall based on CMIP5 historical simulations. Under GHG-only forcing, the land warms much faster than the ocean, magnifying the pre-industrial climatological land-ocean thermal contrast and hemispheric asymmetry, i.e., warmer northern than southern hemisphere. A steady increasing warm-ocean-warmer-land (WOWL) trend has been in effect since the 1950's substantially increasing moisture transport from adjacent oceans, and enhancing rainfall over the Asian monsoon regions. However, under GHG warming, increased atmospheric stability due to strong reduction in mid-tropospheric and near surface relative humidity coupled to an expanding subsidence areas, associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (DTS, Lau and Kim, 2015b) strongly suppress monsoon convection and rainfall over subtropical and extratropical land, leading to a weakening of the Asian monsoon meridional circulation. Increased anthropogenic aerosol emission strongly masks WOWL, by over 60% over the northern hemisphere, negating to a large extent the rainfall increase due to GHG warming, and leading to a further weakening of the monsoon circulation, through increasing atmospheric stability, most likely associated with aerosol solar dimming and semi-direct effects. Overall, we find that GHG exerts stronger positive rainfall sensitivity, but less negative circulation sensitivity in SASM compared to EASM. In contrast, aerosols exert stronger negative impacts on rainfall, but less negative impacts on circulation in EASM compared to SASM.

Geothermal Heating, Convective Flow and Ice Thickness on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenberg, N. D.; Travis, B. J.; Cuzzi, J.

2001-01-01

Our 3D calculations suggest that hydrothermal circulation may occur in the martian regolith and may significantly thin the surface ice layer on Mars at some locations due to the upwelling of warm convecting fluids driven solely by background geothermal heating. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Pathways to 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming based on observational and geological constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodwin, Philip; Katavouta, Anna; Roussenov, Vassil M.; Foster, Gavin L.; Rohling, Eelco J.; Williams, Richard G.

2018-02-01

To restrict global warming to below the agreed targets requires limiting carbon emissions, the principal driver of anthropogenic warming. However, there is significant uncertainty in projecting the amount of carbon that can be emitted, in part due to the limited number of Earth system model simulations and their discrepancies with present-day observations. Here we demonstrate a novel approach to reduce the uncertainty of climate projections; using theory and geological evidence we generate a very large ensemble (3 × 104) of projections that closely match records for nine key climate metrics, which include warming and ocean heat content. Our analysis narrows the uncertainty in surface-warming projections and reduces the range in equilibrium climate sensitivity. We find that a warming target of 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial level requires the total emitted carbon from the start of year 2017 to be less than 195-205 PgC (in over 66% of the simulations), whereas a warming target of 2 °C is only likely if the emitted carbon remains less than 395-455 PgC. At the current emission rates, these warming targets are reached in 17-18 years and 35-41 years, respectively, so that there is a limited window to develop a more carbon-efficient future.

The Global Warming Hiatus Tied to the North Atlantic Oscillation and Its Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Sun, C.

2015-12-01

The twentieth century Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature (NHT) is characterized by a multidecadal warming-cooling-warming pattern followed by a flat trend since about 2000 (recent warming hiatus). Here we demonstrate that the multidcadal variability in NHT including the recent warming hiatus is tied to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the NAO is implicated as a useful predictor of NHT multidecadal variability. Observational analysis shows that the NAO leads both the detrended NHT and oceanic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) by 15-20 years. Theoretical analysis illuminates that the NAO precedes NHT multidecadal variability through its delayed effect on the AMO due to the large thermal inertia associated with slow oceanic processes. The CCSM4 model is employed to investigate possible physical mechanisms. The positive NAO forces the strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and induces a basin-wide uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming that corresponds to the AMO. The SST field exhibits a delayed response to the preceding enhanced AMOC, and shows a pattern similar to the North Atlantic tripole (NAT), with SST warming in the northern North Atlantic and cooling in the southern part. This SST pattern (negative NAT phase) may lead to an atmospheric response that resembles the negative NAO phase, and subsequently the oscillation proceeds, but in the opposite sense. Based on these mechanisms, a simple delayed oscillator model is established to explain the quasi-periodic multidecadal variability of the NAO. The magnitude of the NAO forcing of the AMOC/AMO and the time delay of the AMOC/AMO feedback are two key parameters of the delayed oscillator. For a given set of parameters, the quasi 60-year cycle of the NAO can be well predicted. This delayed oscillator model is useful for understanding of the oscillatory mechanism of the NAO, which has potential for decadal predictions as well as the interpretation of proxy data records. An NAO-based linear model is therefore established to predict the NHT, which gives an excellent hindcast for NHT in 1971-2011 with the recent flat trend well predicted. NHT in 2012-2027 is predicted to fall slightly over the next decades, due to the recent NAO decadal weakening that temporarily offsets the anthropogenically induced warming.

Response of the global climate to changes in atmospheric chemical composition due to fossil fuel burning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.; Hameed, S.; Hogan, J. S.

1980-01-01

Tropospheric ozone and methane might increase in the future as the result of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO, NOx and CH4 due to fossil fuel burning. Since O3 and CH4 are both greenhouse gases, increases in their concentrations could augment global warming due to larger future amounts of atmospheric CO2. To test this possible climatic impact, a zonal energy-balance climate model has been combined with a vertically-averaged tropospheric chemical model. The latter model includes all relevant chemical reactions which affect species derived from H2O, O2, CH4 and NOx. The climate model correspondingly incorporates changes in the infrared heating of the surface-troposphere system resulting from chemically induced changes in tropospheric ozone and methane. This coupled climate-chemical model indicates that global climate is sensitive to changes in emissions of CO, NOx and CH4, and that future increases in these emissions could enhance global warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shen, W.; Tuleya, R.E.; Ginis, I.

In this study, the effect of thermodynamic environmental changes on hurricane intensity is extensively investigated with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory hurricane model for a suite of experiments with different initial upper-tropospheric temperature anomalies up to {+-}4 C and sea surface temperatures ranging from 26 to 31 C given the same relative humidity profile. The results indicate that stabilization in the environmental atmosphere and sea surface temperature (SST) increase cause opposing effects on hurricane intensity. The offsetting relationship between the effects of atmospheric stability increase (decrease) and SST increase (decrease) is monotonic and systematic inmore » the parameter space. This implies that hurricane intensity increase due to a possible global warming associated with increased CO{sub 2} is considerably smaller than that expected from warming of the oceanic waters alone. The results also indicate that the intensity of stronger (weaker) hurricanes is more (less) sensitive to atmospheric stability and SST changes. The model-attained hurricane intensity is found to be well correlated with the maximum surface evaporation and the large-scale environmental convective available potential energy. The model-attained hurricane intensity if highly correlated with the energy available from wet-adiabatic ascent near the eyewall relative to a reference sounding in the undisturbed environment for all the experiments. Coupled hurricane-ocean experiments show that hurricane intensity becomes less sensitive to atmospheric stability and SST changes since the ocean coupling causes larger (smaller) intensity reduction for stronger (weaker) hurricanes. This implies less increase of hurricane intensity related to a possible global warming due to increased CO{sub 2}.« less

Climate change: overview of data sources, observed and predicted temperature changes, and impacts on public and environmental health

Treesearch

David H. Levinson; Christopher J. Fettig

2014-01-01

This chapter addresses the societal and the environmental impacts of climate change related to increasing surface temperatures on air quality and forest health. Increasing temperatures at and near the earth’s surface, due to both a warming climate and urban heat island effects, have been shown to increase ground-level ozone concentrations in cities across the U.S. In...

[A comparison of the effects of intravenous fluid warming and skin surface warming on peri-operative body temperature and acid base balance of elderly patients with abdominal surgery].

PubMed

Park, Hyosun; Yoon, Haesang

2007-12-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the effects of intravenous fluid warming and skin surface warming on peri-operative body temperature and acid base balance of abdominal surgical patients under general anesthesia. Data collection was performed from January 4th, to May 31, 2004. The intravenous fluid warming(IFW) group (30 elderly patients) was warmed through an IV line by an Animec set to 37 degrees C. The skin surface warming (SSW) group (30 elderly patients) was warmed by a circulating-water blanket set to 38 degrees C under the back and a 60W heating lamp 40 cm above the chest. The warming continued from induction of general anesthesia to two hours after completion of surgery. Collected data was analyzed using Repeated Measures ANOVA, and Bonferroni methods. SSW was more effective than IFW in preventing hypothermia(p= .043), preventing a decrease of HCO(3)(-)(p= .000) and preventing base excess (p= .000) respectively. However, there was no difference in pH between the SSW and IFW (p= .401) groups. We conclude that skin surface warming is more effective in preventing hypothermia, and HCO(3)(-) and base excess during general anesthesia, and returning to normal body temperature after surgery than intravenous fluid warming; however, skin surface warming wasn't able to sustain a normal body temperature in elderly patients undergoing abdominal surgery under general anesthesia.

Evapotranspiration-dominated biogeophysical warming effect of urbanization in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Guosong; Dong, Jinwei; Cui, Yaoping; Liu, Jiyuan; Zhai, Jun; He, Tian; Zhou, Yuyu; Xiao, Xiangming

2018-03-01

Given the considerable influences of urbanization on near-surface air temperature (T a ) and surface skin temperature (T s ) at local and regional scales, we investigated the biogeophysical effects of urbanization on T a and T s in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region of China, a typical rapidly urbanizing area, using the weather research and forecasting model (WRF). Two experiments were conducted using satellite-derived realistic areal fraction land cover data in 2010 and 1990 as well as localized parameters (e.g. albedo and leaf area index). Without considering anthropogenic heat, experimental differences indicated a regional biogeophysical warming of 0.15 °C (0.16 °C) in summer T a (T s ), but a negligible warming in winter T a (T s ). Sensitivity analyses also showed a stronger magnitude of local warming in summer than in winter. Along with an increase of 10% in the urban fraction, local T a (T s ) increases of 0.185 °C (0.335 °C), 0.212 °C (0.464 °C), and 0.140 °C (0.220 °C) were found at annual, summer, and winter scales, respectively, according to a space-for-time substitution method. The sensitivity analyses will be beneficial to get a rough biogeophysical warming estimation of future urbanization projections. Furthermore, a decomposed temperature metric (DTM) method was applied for the attribution analyses of the change in T s induced by urbanization. Our results showed that the decrease in evapotranspiration-induced latent heat played a dominate role in biogeophysical warming due to urbanization in BTH, indicating that increasing green space could alleviate warming effects, especially in summer.

Glacioclimatological study of Perennial Ice in the Fuji Ice Cave, Japan. Part I. Seasonal variation and mechanism of maintenance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ohata, Tetsuo; Furukawa, Teruo; Higuchi, Keiji

1994-08-01

Perennial cave ice in a cave located at Mt. Fuji in central Japan was studied to investigate the basic characteristics and the cause for existence of such ice under warm ground-level climate considering the ice cave as a thermal and hydrological system. Fuji Ice Cave is a lava tube cave 150 m in length with a collapsed part at the entrance. Measurements from 1984 to 1986 showed that the surface-level change of floor ice occurred due to freezing and melting at the surface and that melting at the bottom of the ice was negligible. The annual amplitude of change inmore » surface level was larger near the entrance. Meterological data showed that the cold air inflow to the cave was strong in winter, but in summer the cave was maintained near 0[degrees]C with only weak inflow of warm air. The predominant wind system was from the entrance to the interior in both winter and summer, but the spatial scale of the wind system was different. Heat budget consideration of the cave showed that the largest component was the strong inflow of subzero dry air mass in winter. Cooling in winter was compensated for by summer inflow of warm air, heat transport from the surrounding ground layer, and loss of sensible heat due to cooling of the cave for the observed year. Strong inflow of cold air and weak inflow of warm air, which is extremely low compared to the ground level air, seemed to be the most important condition. Thus the thermal condition of the cave is quasi-balanced at the presence condition below 0[degrees]C with ice. It can be said that the interrelated result of the climatological and special structural conditions makes this cave very cold, and allows perennial ice to exist in the cave. Other climatological factors such as precipitation seem to be minor factors. 17 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Structure of the marine atmospheric boundary layer over an oceanic thermal front: SEMAPHORE experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, B. H.; BéNech, B.; Lambert, D.; Durand, P.; Druilhet, A.; Giordani, H.; Planton, S.

1998-10-01

The Structure des Echanges Mer-Atmosphere, Proprietes des Heterogeneites Oceaniques: Recherche Experimentale (SEMAPHORE) experiment, the third phase of which took place between October 4 and November 17, 1993, was conducted over the oceanic Azores Current located in the Azores basin and mainly marked at the surface by a thermal front due to the gradient of the sea surface temperature (SST) of about 1° to 2°C per 100 km. The evolution of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) over the SST front was studied with two aircraft and a ship in different meteorological conditions. For each case, the influence of the incoming air direction with respect to the orientation of the oceanic front was taken into account. During the campaign, advanced very high resolution radiometer pictures did not show any relation between the SST field and the cloud cover. The MABL was systematically thicker on the warm side than on the cold side. The mean MABL structure described from aircraft data collected in a vertical plane crossing the oceanic front was characterized by (1) an atmospheric horizontal gradient of 1° to 2°C per 100 km in the whole depth of the mixed layer and (2) an increase of the wind intensity from the cold to the warm side when the synoptic wind blew from the cold side. The surface sensible heat (latent heat) flux always increased from the cold to the warm sector owing to the increase of the wind and of the temperature (specific humidity) difference between the surface and the air. Turbulence increased from the cold to the warm side in conjunction with the MABL thickening, but the normalized profiles presented the same structure, regardless of the position over the SST front. In agreement with the Action de Recherche Programme te Petite Echelle and Grande Echelle model, the mean temperature and momentum budgets were highly influenced by the horizontal temperature gradient. In particular, the strong ageostrophic influence in the MABL above the SST front seems linked with the secondary circulation due to the SST front.

Inevitable end-of-21st-century trends toward earlier surface runoff timing in California's Sierra Nevada Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, M. A.; Hall, A. D.; Sun, F.; Walton, D.; Berg, N.

2015-12-01

Hybrid dynamical-statistical downscaling is used to produce surface runoff timing projections for California's Sierra Nevada, a high-elevation mountain range with significant seasonal snow cover. First, future climate change projections (RCP8.5 forcing scenario, 2081-2100 period) from five CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) are dynamically downscaled. These projections reveal that future warming leads to a shift toward earlier snowmelt and surface runoff timing throughout the Sierra Nevada region. Relationships between warming and surface runoff timing from the dynamical simulations are used to build a simple statistical model that mimics the dynamical model's projected surface runoff timing changes given GCM input or other statistically-downscaled input. This statistical model can be used to produce surface runoff timing projections for other GCMs, periods, and forcing scenarios to quantify ensemble-mean changes, uncertainty due to intermodel variability and consequences stemming from choice of forcing scenario. For all CMIP5 GCMs and forcing scenarios, significant trends toward earlier surface runoff timing occur at elevations below 2500m. Thus, we conclude that trends toward earlier surface runoff timing by the end-of-the-21st century are inevitable. The changes to surface runoff timing diagnosed in this study have implications for many dimensions of climate change, including impacts on surface hydrology, water resources, and ecosystems.

Subtropical Gyre Variability as Seen from Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Signorini, Sergio R.; McClain, Charles R.

2011-01-01

A satellite multi-sensor approach is used to analyse the biological response of open ocean regions of the subtropical gyres to changes in physical forcing. Thirteen years (1998-2010) of SeaWiFS chlorophyll a (Chl-a), combined with concurrent satellite records of sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea level height, were analysed to investigate the seasonal and interannual variability of Chl-a concentration within these immense so-called ocean deserts. The seasonal variability of Chl-a within the gyres is driven mostly by the warming/cooling of surface waters. Summer warming promotes shallower mixed layers and lower Chl-a due to a reduction of vertical mixing and consequently a decrease in nutrient supply. The opposite happens during the winter cooling period. Therefore, long-term trends in SST have the potential to cause an impact on the interannual variability of Chl-a. Our analyses show that, during the 13 whole years of SeaWiFS data record, the North Pacific, Indian Ocean, and North Atlantic gyres experienced a decrease in Chl-a of 9%, 12%, and 11%, respectively, with corresponding SST increases of 0.27 C, 0.42 C, and 0.32 C. The South Pacific and South Atlantic gyres also showed warming trends but with weak positive trends in Chl-a that are not statistically significant. We hypothesize that the warming of surface waters in these two gyres are counterbalanced by other interacting physical and biological driving mechanisms, as indicated in previous studies.

Water vapor changes under global warming and the linkage to present-day interannual variabilities in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Hanii; Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.

2016-12-01

The fractional water vapor changes under global warming across 14 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations are analyzed. We show that the mean fractional water vapor changes under global warming in the tropical upper troposphere between 300 and 100 hPa range from 12.4 to 28.0 %/K across all models while the fractional water vapor changes are about 5-8 %/K in other regions and at lower altitudes. The "upper-tropospheric amplification" of the water vapor change is primarily driven by a larger temperature increase in the upper troposphere than in the lower troposphere per degree of surface warming. The relative contributions of atmospheric temperature and relative humidity changes to the water vapor change in each model vary between 71.5 to 131.8 % and 24.8 to -20.1 %, respectively. The inter-model differences in the water vapor change is primarily caused by differences in temperature change, except over the inter-tropical convergence zone within 10°S-10°N where the model differences due to the relative humidity change are significant. Furthermore, we find that there is generally a positive correlation between the rates of water vapor change for long-tem surface warming and those on the interannual time scales. However, the rates of water vapor change under long-term warming have a systematic offset from those on the inter-annual time scales and the dominant contributor to the differences also differs for the two time scales, suggesting caution needs to be taken when inferring long-term water vapor changes from the observed interannual variations.

The recent warming of permafrost in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osterkamp, T. E.

2005-12-01

This paper reports results of an experiment initiated in 1977 to determine the effects of climate on permafrost in Alaska. Permafrost observatories with boreholes were established along a north-south transect of Alaska in undisturbed permafrost terrain. The analysis and interpretation of annual temperature measurements in the boreholes and daily temperature measurements of the air, ground and permafrost surfaces made with automated temperature loggers are reported. Permafrost temperatures warmed along this transect coincident with a statewide warming of air temperatures that began in 1977. At two sites on the Arctic Coastal Plain, the warming was seasonal, greatest during "winter" months (October through May) and least during "summer" months (June through September). Permafrost temperatures peaked in the early 1980s and then decreased in response to slightly cooler air temperatures and thinner snow covers. Arctic sites began warming again typically about 1986 and Interior Alaska sites about 1988. Gulkana, the southernmost site, has been warming slowly since it was drilled in 1983. Air temperatures were relatively warm and snow covers were thicker-than-normal from the late 1980s into the late 1990s allowing permafrost temperatures to continue to warm. Temperatures at some sites leveled off or cooled slightly at the turn of the century. Two sites (Yukon River Bridge and Livengood) cooled during the period of observations. The magnitude of the total warming at the surface of the permafrost (through 2003) was 3 to 4 °C for the Arctic Coastal Plain, 1 to 2 °C for the Brooks Range including its northern and southern foothills, and 0.3 to 1 °C south of the Yukon River. While the data are sparse, permafrost is warming throughout the region north of the Brooks Range, southward along the transect from the Brooks Range to the Chugach Mountains (except for Yukon River and Livengood), in Interior Alaska throughout the Tanana River region, and in the region south of the Alaska Range from Tok westward to Gulkana (in the Copper River Valley) and beyond to the Talkeetna Mountains. Thermal offset allows permafrost to survive in the presence of positive annual mean ground surface temperatures and was observed repeatedly since 1987 at two sites. The observed warming has not produced an increasing trend in maximum active layer thicknesses due to its seasonality. Near Healy, permafrost has been thawing at the top since the late 1980s at about 10 cm/yr. At Gulkana, permafrost was thawing from the bottom at a rate of 4 cm/yr that accelerated to 9 cm/yr after 2000.

Importance of ocean salinity for climate and habitability

PubMed Central

Cullum, Jodie; Stevens, David P.; Joshi, Manoj M.

2016-01-01

Modeling studies of terrestrial extrasolar planetary climates are now including the effects of ocean circulation due to a recognition of the importance of oceans for climate; indeed, the peak equator-pole ocean heat transport on Earth peaks at almost half that of the atmosphere. However, such studies have made the assumption that fundamental oceanic properties, such as salinity, temperature, and depth, are similar to Earth. This assumption results in Earth-like circulations: a meridional overturning with warm water moving poleward at the surface, being cooled, sinking at high latitudes, and traveling equatorward at depth. Here it is shown that an exoplanetary ocean with a different salinity can circulate in the opposite direction: an equatorward flow of polar water at the surface, sinking in the tropics, and filling the deep ocean with warm water. This alternative flow regime results in a dramatic warming in the polar regions, demonstrated here using both a conceptual model and an ocean general circulation model. These results highlight the importance of ocean salinity for exoplanetary climate and consequent habitability and the need for its consideration in future studies. PMID:27044090

Importance of ocean salinity for climate and habitability.

PubMed

Cullum, Jodie; Stevens, David P; Joshi, Manoj M

2016-04-19

Modeling studies of terrestrial extrasolar planetary climates are now including the effects of ocean circulation due to a recognition of the importance of oceans for climate; indeed, the peak equator-pole ocean heat transport on Earth peaks at almost half that of the atmosphere. However, such studies have made the assumption that fundamental oceanic properties, such as salinity, temperature, and depth, are similar to Earth. This assumption results in Earth-like circulations: a meridional overturning with warm water moving poleward at the surface, being cooled, sinking at high latitudes, and traveling equatorward at depth. Here it is shown that an exoplanetary ocean with a different salinity can circulate in the opposite direction: an equatorward flow of polar water at the surface, sinking in the tropics, and filling the deep ocean with warm water. This alternative flow regime results in a dramatic warming in the polar regions, demonstrated here using both a conceptual model and an ocean general circulation model. These results highlight the importance of ocean salinity for exoplanetary climate and consequent habitability and the need for its consideration in future studies.

Dynamics behind warming of the southeastern Arabian Sea and its interruption based on in situ measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathew, Simi; Natesan, Usha; Latha, Ganesan; Venkatesan, Ramasamy

2018-05-01

A study of the inter-annual variability of the warming of the southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS) during the spring transition months was carried out from 2013 to 2015 based on in situ data from moored buoys. An attempt was made to identify the roles of the different variables in the warming of the SEAS (e.g., net heat flux, advection, entrainment, and thickness of the barrier layer during the previous northeast monsoon season). The intense freshening of the SEAS (approximately 2 PSU) occurring in each December, together with the presence of a downwelling Rossby wave, supports the formation of a thick barrier layer during the northeast monsoon season. It is known that the barrier layer thickness, varying each year, plays a major role in the spring warming of the SEAS. Interestingly, an anomalously thick barrier layer occurred during the northeast monsoon season of 2012-2013. However, the highest sea surface temperature (31 °C) was recorded during the last week of April 2015, while the lowest sea surface temperature (29.7 °C) was recorded during the last week of May 2013. The mixed layer heat budget analysis during the spring transition months proved that the intense warming has been mainly supported by the net heat flux, not by other factors like advection and entrainment. The inter-annual variability analysis of the net heat flux and its components, averaged over a box region of the SEAS, showed a substantial latent heat flux release and a reduction in net shortwave radiation in 2013. Both factors contributed to the negative net heat flux. Strong breaks in the warming were also observed in May due to the entrainment of cold sub-surface waters. These events are associated with the cyclonic eddy persisting over the SEAS during the same time. The entrainment term, favoring the cooling, was stronger in 2015 than that in 2013 and 2014. The surface temperatures measured in 2013 were lower than those in 2014 and 2015 despite the presence of a thick barrier layer. The substantial decrease in net heat flux along with entrainment cooling has been identified as causes for this behavior.

Aerosol contribution to the rapid warming of near-term climate under RCP 2.6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chalmers, N.; Highwood, E. J.; Hawkins, E.; Sutton, R.; Wilcox, L. J.

2012-09-01

The importance of aerosol emissions for near term climate projections is investigated by analysing simulations with the HadGEM2-ES model under two different emissions scenarios: RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. It is shown that the near term warming projected under RCP2.6 is greater than under RCP4.5, even though the greenhouse gas forcing is lower. Rapid and substantial reductions in sulphate aerosol emissions due to a reduction of coal burning in RCP2.6 lead to a reduction in the negative shortwave forcing due to aerosol direct and indirect effects. Indirect effects play an important role over the northern hemisphere oceans, especially the subtropical northeastern Pacific where an anomaly of 5-10 Wm-2 develops. The pattern of surface temperature change is consistent with the expected response to this surface radiation anomaly, whilst also exhibiting features that reflect redistribution of energy, and feedbacks, within the climate system. These results demonstrate the importance of aerosol emissions as a key source of uncertainty in near term projections of global and regional climate.

The Extremely Warm Early Winter 2000 in Europe: What is the Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, J.; Angell, J. K.; Atlas, R.; Ardizzone, J.; Demaree, G.; Jusem, J. C.; Koslowsky, D.; Terry, J.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

High variability characterizes the winter climate of central Europe: interannual fluctuations in the surface-air temperature as large as 18 C over large areas are fairly common. The extraordinary early-winter 2000 in Europe appears to be a departure to an unprecedented extreme of the existing climate patterns. Such anomalous events affect agriculture, forestry, fuel consumption, etc., and thus deserve in-depth analysis. Our analysis indicates that the high anomalies of the surface-air temperature are predominantly due to the southwesterly flow from the eastern North Atlantic, with a weak contribution by southerly flow from the western Mediterranean. Backward trajectories based on the SSM/I and NCEP Reanalysis datasets traced from west-central Europe indicate that the warm air masses flowing into Europe originate in the southern North Atlantic, where the surface-air temperatures exceed by 15c or more the climatic norms in Europe for late-November or early-December. Because such large ocean-to-continent temperature differences characterize the winter conditions, we refer to this episode which started in late November as occurring in the early winter. In this season, with the sun low over the horizon in Europe, absorption of insolation by the surface has little significance. The effect of cloudiness, a corollary to the low-level maritime-air advection, is a warming by a reduction of heat loss (greenhouse effect). In contrast, in the summer, clouds, by reducing absorption of insolation, produce a cooling, effect at the surface.

Physics of greenhouse effect and convection in warm oceans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Inamdar, A. K.; Ramanathan, V.

1994-01-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) in roughly 50% of the tropical Pacific Ocean is warm enough (SST greater than 300 K) to permit deep convection. This paper examines the effects of deep convection on the climatological mean vertical distributions of water vapor and its greenhouse effect over such warm oceans. The study, which uses a combination of satellite radiation budget observations, atmospheric soundings deployed from ships, and radiation model calculations, also examines the link between SST, vertical distribution of water vapor, and its greenhouse effect in the tropical oceans. Since the focus of the study is on the radiative effects of water vapor, the radiation model calculations do not include the effects of clouds. The data are grouped into nonconvective and convective categories using SST as an index for convective activity. On average, convective regions are more humid, trap significantly more longwave radiation, and emit more radiation to the sea surface. The greenhouse effect in regions of convection operates as per classical ideas, that is, as the SST increases, the atmosphere traps the excess longwave energy emitted by the surface and reradiates it locally back to the ocean surface. The important departure from the classical picture is that the net (up minus down) fluxes at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere decrease with an increase in SST; that is, the surface and the surface-troposphere column lose the ability to radiate the excess energy to space. The cause of this super greenhouse effect at the surface is the rapid increase in the lower-troposphere humidity with SST; that of the column is due to a combination of increase in humidity in the entire column and increase in the lapse rate within the lower troposphere. The increase in the vertical distribution of humidity far exceeds that which can be attributed to the temperature dependence of saturation vapor pressure; that is, the tropospheric relative humidity is larger in convective regions. The positive coupling between SST and the radiative warming of the surface by the water vapor greenhouse effect is also shown to exist on interannual time scales.

Areas of Anomalous Surface Temperature in Archuleta County, Colorado, as Identified from ASTER Thermal Data

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This layer contains areas of anomalous surface temperature in Archuleta County identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled very warm surface exposures (thermal anomalies). Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma

Areas of Anomalous Surface Temperature in Dolores County, Colorado, as Identified from ASTER Thermal Data

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This layer contains areas of anomalous surface temperature in Dolores County identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled very warm surface exposures (thermal anomalies). Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma

Areas of Anomalous Surface Temperature in Chaffee County, Colorado, as Identified from ASTER Thermal Data

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This layer contains areas of anomalous surface temperature in Chaffee County identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled very warm surface exposures (thermal anomalies). Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma

Areas of Anomalous Surface Temperature in Garfield County, Colorado, as Identified from ASTER Thermal Data

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This layer contains areas of anomalous surface temperature in Garfield County identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled very warm surface exposures (thermal anomalies). Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Areas of Anomalous Surface Temperature in Routt County, Colorado, as Identified from ASTER Thermal Data

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This layer contains areas of anomalous surface temperature in Routt County identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled very warm surface exposures (thermal anomalies). Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Long-terms Change of Sea Surface Temperature in the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Y. G.; Choi, A.

2016-02-01

Using the Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) the long term trend in the South China Sea (SCS) sea surface temperature (SST) between 1950 and 2008 is investigated. Both in winter and summer SST was increased by comparable amounts, but the warming patterns and the governing processes was different. During winter warming rate was greater in the deep basin in the central part, while during summer near the southern part. In winter the net heat flux into the sea was increased and could contribute to the warming. The pattern of the heat flux, however, was different from that of the warming. The heat flux was increased over the coastal area where warming was weaker, but decreased in deeper part where warming was stronger. The northeasterly monsoon wind weakened to lower the shoreward Ekman transport and the sea surface height gradient. The cyclonic gyre that transports cold northern water to south was weakened to warm the ocean. The effect manifested more strongly southward western boundary currents, and subsequently cold advection. In summer the net surface heat flux, however, was reduced and could not contribute to the warming. Over the southern part of the ocean the weakening of the southwesterly summer monsoon reduced southeastward Ekman transport, which is antiparallel to the mean SST gradient. Firstly, southeastward cold advection is reduced to warm the surface near the southeastern boundary of the SCS. The upwelling southeast of Vietnam was also weakened to raise the SST east of Vietnam. Thus the weakening of the wind in each season was the ultimate cause of the warming, but the responses of the ocean that lead to the warming were different.

Resolution of Serologic Problems Due to Cold Agglutinins in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia.

PubMed

Javed, Rizwan; Datta, Suvro Sankha; Basu, Sabita; Chakrapani, Anupam

2016-06-01

Autoimmune hemolytic anemia can be classified depending on presence of warm, cold or mixed type of autoantibodies that are directed against antigens on the red blood cell surface. Here we report a case of pathological cold agglutinin disease which was eventually detected due to blood group discrepancy. A request was sent to the blood bank for two units of packed red cells in a diagnosed case of CLL which showed type IV discrepancy during blood grouping.The discrepancy was subsequently resolved after warm saline washing of red cells along with repetition of reverse grouping with pre-warmed serum. The direct antiglobulin test was positive and revealed autoanibodies against C3b/C3d only. Indirect antiglobulin test was performed with 3-cell panel in a polyspecific gel card (IgG+C3d) showed a pan-reactive pattern along with a positive autocontrol. Subsequently a cold agglutinin titration was performed and titers of 1024 at 4 °C; titer of 2 at room temperature were detected. Dithiothreitol (DTT) treatment of serum was undertaken and IgM type of autoantibody was detected in this case confirming a case of secondary cold agglutinin disease in this patient. Two units of red cells were transfused to this patient after successfully performing cross-match with pre-warmed serum. It was advised from the blood bank that the blood should be transfused slowly through a blood-warmer and patient should be kept in warm condition to avoid in-vivo hemolysis due to high titer of cold agglutinin. The transfusion was uneventful and patient is on regular follow-up till now. Thus we concluded that serological discrepancies observed in blood bank can successfully guide the bedside transfusion protocol in case of cold agglutinin disease.

An Intercomparison of Changes Associated with Earth's Lower Tropospheric Temperature Using Traditional and AMIP-Style Reanalyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marquardt-Collow, Allison B.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Cullather, Richard I.

2017-01-01

Reanalyses have become an integral tool for evaluating regional and global climate variations, and an important component of this is modifications to the energy budget. Reductions in Arctic Sea ice extent has induced an albedo feedback, causing the Arctic to warm more rapidly than anywhere else in the world, referred to as "Arctic Amplification." This has been demonstrated by observations and numerous reanalyses, including the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). However, the Arctic Amplification signal is non-existent in a ten member ensemble of the MERRA-2 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (M2AMIP) simulations, using the same prescribed climate forcing, including Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and ice. An evaluation of the temperature tendency within the lower troposphere due to radiation, moisture, and dynamics as well as the surface energy budget in MERRA-2 and M2AMIP will demonstrate that despite identical prescribed SSTs and sea ice in both versions, enhanced warming in the Arctic in MERRA-2 is in response to the analysis increment tendency due to temperature observations. Furthermore, the role of boundary conditions, model biases and changes in observing systems on the Arctic Amplification signal will be assessed. Literature on the topic of Arctic Amplification demonstrates that the enhanced warming begins in the mid-1990s. Anomalously warm Arctic SST in the early time period of MERRA-2 can mute the trend in Arctic lower troposphere temperature without the constraint of observations in M2AMIP. Additionally, MERRA-2 uses three distinct datasets of SST and sea ice concentration, which also plays a role.

Hurricane Matthew (2016) and its Storm Surge Inundation under Global Warming Scenarios: Application of an Interactively Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jisan, M. A.; Bao, S.; Pietrafesa, L.; Pullen, J.

2017-12-01

An interactively coupled atmosphere-ocean model was used to investigate the impacts of future ocean warming, both at the surface and the layers below, on the track and intensity of a hurricane and its associated storm surge and inundation. The category-5 hurricane Matthew (2016), which made landfall on the South Carolina coast of the United States, was used for the case study. Future ocean temperature changes and sea level rise (SLR) were estimated based on the projection of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. After being validated with the present-day observational data, the model was applied to simulate the changes in track, intensity, storm surge and inundation that Hurricane Matthew would cause under future climate change scenarios. It was found that a significant increase in hurricane intensity, storm surge water level, and inundation area for Hurricane Matthew under future ocean warming and SLR scenarios. For example, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the maximum wind speed would increase by 17 knots (14.2%), the minimum sea level pressure would decrease by 26 hPa (2.85%), and the inundated area would increase by 401 km2 (123%). By including the effect of SLR for the middle-21st-century scenario, the inundated area will further increase by up to 49.6%. The increase in the hurricane intensity and the inundated area was also found for the RCP 2.6 scenario. The response of sea surface temperature was analyzed to investigate the change in intensity. A comparison was made between the impacts when only the sea surface warming is considered versus when both the sea surface and the underneath layers are considered. These results showed that even without the effect of SLR, the storm surge level and the inundated area would be higher due to the increased hurricane intensity under the influence of the future warmer ocean temperature. The coupled effect of ocean warming and SLR would cause the hurricane-induced storm surge and inundation to be amplified. The relative importance of the ocean warming versus the SLR was evaluated. Keywords: Hurricane Matthew, Global Warming, Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model, Air-Sea interactions, Storm Surge, Inundation

Big Jump of Record Warm Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014-2016 Related to Unusually Large Oceanic Heat Releases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jianjun; Overpeck, Jonathan; Peyser, Cheryl; Stouffer, Ronald

2018-01-01

A 0.24°C jump of record warm global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the past three consecutive record-breaking years (2014-2016) was highly unusual and largely a consequence of an El Niño that released unusually large amounts of ocean heat from the subsurface layer of the northwestern tropical Pacific. This heat had built up since the 1990s mainly due to greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing and possible remote oceanic effects. Model simulations and projections suggest that the fundamental cause, and robust predictor of large record-breaking events of GMST in the 21st century, is GHG forcing rather than internal climate variability alone. Such events will increase in frequency, magnitude, and duration, as well as impact, in the future unless GHG forcing is reduced.

Model tropical Atlantic biases underpin diminished Pacific decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGregor, Shayne; Stuecker, Malte F.; Kajtar, Jules B.; England, Matthew H.; Collins, Mat

2018-06-01

Pacific trade winds have displayed unprecedented strengthening in recent decades1. This strengthening has been associated with east Pacific sea surface cooling2 and the early twenty-first-century slowdown in global surface warming2,3, amongst a host of other substantial impacts4-9. Although some climate models produce the timing of these recently observed trends10, they all fail to produce the trend magnitude2,11,12. This may in part be related to the apparent model underrepresentation of low-frequency Pacific Ocean variability and decadal wind trends2,11-13 or be due to a misrepresentation of a forced response1,14-16 or a combination of both. An increasingly prominent connection between the Pacific and Atlantic basins has been identified as a key driver of this strengthening of the Pacific trade winds12,17-20. Here we use targeted climate model experiments to show that combining the recent Atlantic warming trend with the typical climate model bias leads to a substantially underestimated response for the Pacific Ocean wind and surface temperature. The underestimation largely stems from a reduction and eastward shift of the atmospheric heating response to the tropical Atlantic warming trend. This result suggests that the recent Pacific trends and model decadal variability may be better captured by models with improved mean-state climatologies.

Global Warming In A Regional Model of The Atlantic Ocean - Echam4/opyc3 In Flame 4/3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schweckendiek, U.; Willebrand, J.

The reaction of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) in most climate models on global warming scenarios is a weakening of the THC. An exception is the ECHAM4/OPYC3 simulation whose stable behaviour is traced back to a strongly enhanced evaporation and as a consequence to a development of a salt anomaly in the tropics and subtropics of the Atlantic Ocean (Latif et al.,2000). This salt signal is advected into convection regions and compensates the reduction of surface density due to surface heating and freshening. To examine this scenario for a more realistic ocean model, data from this model is used to drive a reginal model of the Atlantic Ocean. In order to test the crucial mechanisms for the maintainance of the meridional overturning, we have performed sensitivity studies by focussing on different combinations of the anomalous freshwater and heat fluxes. The results demonstrate that for the stabilising effect to become effective the salt sig- nal has to enter the GIN-Seas and subsequently the overflow waters, underlining the importance of the overflows for the THC. The Labrador Sea Convection is however uneffected by this stabilising salt signal and its convection ultimatly breaks down un- der surface warming and freshening.

Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records.

PubMed

Hausfather, Zeke; Cowtan, Kevin; Clarke, David C; Jacobs, Peter; Richardson, Mark; Rohde, Robert

2017-01-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) records are subject to potential biases due to changing instrumentation and measurement practices. Significant differences exist between commonly used composite SST reconstructions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Extended Reconstruction Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST), the Hadley Centre SST data set (HadSST3), and the Japanese Meteorological Agency's Centennial Observation-Based Estimates of SSTs (COBE-SST) from 2003 to the present. The update from ERSST version 3b to version 4 resulted in an increase in the operational SST trend estimate during the last 19 years from 0.07° to 0.12°C per decade, indicating a higher rate of warming in recent years. We show that ERSST version 4 trends generally agree with largely independent, near-global, and instrumentally homogeneous SST measurements from floating buoys, Argo floats, and radiometer-based satellite measurements that have been developed and deployed during the past two decades. We find a large cooling bias in ERSST version 3b and smaller but significant cooling biases in HadSST3 and COBE-SST from 2003 to the present, with respect to most series examined. These results suggest that reported rates of SST warming in recent years have been underestimated in these three data sets.

Impacts of Wind Farms on Local Land Surface Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, L.; Tian, Y.; Baidya Roy, S.; Thorncroft, C.; Bosart, L. F.; Hu, Y.

2012-12-01

The U.S. wind industry has experienced a remarkably rapid expansion of capacity in recent years and this rapid growth is expected to continue in the future. While converting wind's kinetic energy into electricity, wind turbines modify surface-atmosphere exchanges and transfer of energy, momentum, mass and moisture within the atmosphere. These changes, if spatially large enough, may have noticeable impacts on local to regional weather and climate. Here we present observational evidence for such impacts based on analyses of satellite derived land surface temperature (LST) data at ~1.1 km for the period of 2003-2011 over a region in West-Central Texas, where four of the world's largest wind farms are located. Our results show a warming effect of up to 0.7 degrees C at nighttime for the 9-year period during which data was collected, over wind farms relative to nearby non wind farm regions and this warming is gradually enhanced with time, while the effect at daytime is small. The spatial pattern and magnitude of this warming effect couple very well with the geographic distribution of wind turbines and such coupling is stronger at nighttime than daytime and in summer than winter. These results suggest that the warming effect is very likely attributable to the development of wind farms. This inference is consistent with the increasing number of operational wind turbines with time during the study period, the diurnal and seasonal variations in the frequency of wind speed and direction distribution, and the changes in near-surface atmospheric boundary layer conditions due to wind farm operations. Figure 1: Nighttime land surface temperature (LST, C) differences between 2010 and 2003 (2010 minus 2003) in summer (June-July-August). Pixels with plus symbol have at least one wind turbine. A regional mean value (0.592 C) was removed to emphasize the relative LST changes at pixel level and so the resulting warming or cooling rate represents a change relative to the regional mean value. The LST data were derived from MODIS (Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer) instruments on NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites. Note that LST measures the radiometric temperature of the Earth's surface itself - It has a larger diurnal variation than surface air temperature used in daily weather reports.

Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

2004-01-01

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation at middle to low levels causes a reduction of high cloud cover due to the depletion of water available for ice-phase rain production. As a result, more isolated, but more intense penetrative convection develops. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale tends, implying a faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbance on daily to weekly time scales. The causes of the sensitivity of the dynamical regimes to the microphysics parameterization in the GCM will be discussed.

Global patterns in lake ecosystem responses to warming based on the temperature dependence of metabolism.

PubMed

Kraemer, Benjamin M; Chandra, Sudeep; Dell, Anthony I; Dix, Margaret; Kuusisto, Esko; Livingstone, David M; Schladow, S Geoffrey; Silow, Eugene; Sitoki, Lewis M; Tamatamah, Rashid; McIntyre, Peter B

2017-05-01

Climate warming is expected to have large effects on ecosystems in part due to the temperature dependence of metabolism. The responses of metabolic rates to climate warming may be greatest in the tropics and at low elevations because mean temperatures are warmer there and metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature (with exponents >1). However, if warming rates are sufficiently fast in higher latitude/elevation lakes, metabolic rate responses to warming may still be greater there even though metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature. Thus, a wide range of global patterns in the magnitude of metabolic rate responses to warming could emerge depending on global patterns of temperature and warming rates. Here we use the Boltzmann-Arrhenius equation, published estimates of activation energy, and time series of temperature from 271 lakes to estimate long-term (1970-2010) changes in 64 metabolic processes in lakes. The estimated responses of metabolic processes to warming were usually greatest in tropical/low-elevation lakes even though surface temperatures in higher latitude/elevation lakes are warming faster. However, when the thermal sensitivity of a metabolic process is especially weak, higher latitude/elevation lakes had larger responses to warming in parallel with warming rates. Our results show that the sensitivity of a given response to temperature (as described by its activation energy) provides a simple heuristic for predicting whether tropical/low-elevation lakes will have larger or smaller metabolic responses to warming than higher latitude/elevation lakes. Overall, we conclude that the direct metabolic consequences of lake warming are likely to be felt most strongly at low latitudes and low elevations where metabolism-linked ecosystem services may be most affected. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ice Core Records of West Greenland Melt and Climate Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graeter, K. A.; Osterberg, E. C.; Ferris, D. G.; Hawley, R. L.; Marshall, H. P.; Lewis, G.; Meehan, T.; McCarthy, F.; Overly, T.; Birkel, S. D.

2018-04-01

Remote sensing observations and climate models indicate that the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass since the late 1990s, mostly due to enhanced surface melting from rising summer temperatures. However, in situ observational records of GrIS melt rates over recent decades are rare. Here we develop a record of frozen meltwater in the west GrIS percolation zone preserved in seven firn cores. Quantifying ice layer distribution as a melt feature percentage (MFP), we find significant increases in MFP in the southernmost five cores over the past 50 years to unprecedented modern levels (since 1550 CE). Annual to decadal changes in summer temperatures and MFP are closely tied to changes in Greenland summer blocking activity and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures since 1870. However, summer warming of 1.2°C since 1870-1900, in addition to warming attributable to recent sea surface temperature and blocking variability, is a critical driver of high modern MFP levels.

Mechanistic insights into a hydrate contribution to the Paleocene-Eocene carbon cycle perturbation from coupled thermohydraulic simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minshull, T. A.; Marín-Moreno, H.; Armstrong McKay, D. I.; Wilson, P. A.

2016-08-01

During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the carbon isotopic signature (δ13C) of surface carbon-bearing phases decreased abruptly by at least 2.5 to 3.0‰. This carbon isotope excursion (CIE) has been attributed to widespread methane hydrate dissociation in response to rapid ocean warming. We ran a thermohydraulic modeling code to simulate hydrate dissociation due to ocean warming for various PETM scenarios. Our results show that hydrate dissociation in response to such warming can be rapid but suggest that methane release to the ocean is modest and delayed by hundreds to thousands of years after the onset of dissociation, limiting the potential for positive feedback from emission-induced warming. In all of our simulations at least half of the dissociated hydrate methane remains beneath the seabed, suggesting that the pre-PETM hydrate inventory needed to account for all of the CIE is at least double that required for isotopic mass balance.

Global warming hiatus contributed to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia.

PubMed

Zhao, Jiuwei; Zhan, Ruifen; Wang, Yuqing

2018-04-16

The recent global warming hiatus (GWH) was characterized by a La Niña-like cooling in the tropical Eastern Pacific accompanied with the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming. Here we show that the recent GWH contributed significantly to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia since 1998. The GWH associated sea surface temperature anomalies triggered a pair of anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic circulations and equatorial easterly anomalies over the Northwest Pacific, which favored TC genesis and intensification over the western Northwest Pacific but suppressed TC genesis and intensification over the southeastern Northwest Pacific due to increased vertical wind shear and anticyclonic circulation anomalies. Results from atmospheric general circulation model experiments demonstrate that the Pacific La Niña-like cooling dominated the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming in contributing to the observed GWH-related anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Northwest Pacific.

Regional Warming from Aerosol Removal over the United States: Results from a Transient 2010-2050 Climate Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mickley, L. J.; Leibensperger, E. M.; Jacob, D. J.; Rind, D.

2012-01-01

We use a general circulation model (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM 3) to investigate the regional climate response to removal of aerosols over the United States. We perform a pair of transient 2010e2050 climate simulations following a scenario of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, with and without aerosols over the United States and with present-day aerosols elsewhere. We find that removing U.S. aerosol significantly enhances the warming from greenhouse gases in a spatial pattern that strongly correlates with that of the aerosol. Warming is nearly negligible outside the United States, but annual mean surface temperatures increase by 0.4e0.6 K in the eastern United States. Temperatures during summer heat waves in the Northeast rise by as much as 1e2 K due to aerosol removal, driven in part by positive feedbacks involving soil moisture and low cloud cover. Reducing U.S. aerosol sources to achieve air quality objectives could thus have significant unintended regional warming consequences.

Spring snow albedo feedback in daily data over Russia: Comparing in-situ measurements with reanalysis products.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wegmann, M.; Zolina, O.; Jacobi, H. W.

2016-12-01

Global warming is enhanced at high northern latitudes where the Arctic surface air temperature has risen at twice the rate of the global average in recent decades - a feature called Arctic amplification. This recent Arctic warming signal likely results from several factors such as the albedo feedback due to a diminishing cryosphere, enhanced poleward atmospheric and oceanic heat transport, and changes in humidity. Surface albedo feedback is stating that the additional amount of shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere decreases with decreasing surface albedo whereas surface air temperature increases with decreasing surface albedo. It is considered a positive feedback in that an initial warming perturbation than kicks off a strengthening warming. Looking at the Northern Hemisphere with its large landmasses, snow albedo feedback is especially strong since most of these landmasses experience snow cover during boreal wintertime. Unfortunately, so far there remains a lack of reliable observational data over large parts of the cryosphere. Satellite products cover large parts of the NH, however lack high temporal resolution and have problems with large solar zenith angles as well as over complex terrain (eg. Wang et al. 2014). Our analysis focuses at the Russian territory where we utilize in-situ radiation and snow depth measurements. We found 50 stations which measure both variables on a daily basis for the period 2000-2013. Since Hall (2004) found that 50% of the notal NH snow albedo feedback caused by global warming occurs during NH spring, we focus on the transition period of March to June (MAMJ). Thackeray & Fletcher 2006 compared albedo feedback processes CMIP3 and CMIP5 model families and found while the models represent the feedback process accurately, there are still inherent biases and outdated parameterizations. Therefore we use the daily observations and state of the art reanalysis products to 1) evaluate reanalysis and model products in respect to radiation properties, 2) investigate snow albedo feedbacks on a daily scale during spring and 3) to suggest climate change signals over Russia in albedo feedback between 2000 - 2013 based on in-situ measurements.

Temperature and size variabilities of the Western Pacific Warm Pool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yan, Xiao-Hai; Ho, Chung-Ru; Zheng, Quanan; Klemas, Vic

1992-01-01

Variabilities in sea-surface temperature and size of the Western Pacific Warm Pool were tracked with 10 years of satellite multichannel sea-surface temperature observations from 1982 to 1991. The results show that both annual mean sea-surface temperature and the size of the warm pool increased from 1983 to 1987 and fluctuated after 1987. Possible causes of these variations include solar irradiance variabilities, El Nino-Southern Oscillaton events, volcanic activities, and global warming.

Can uncertainties in sea ice albedo reconcile patterns of data-model discord for the Pliocene and 20th/21st centuries?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howell, Fergus W.; Haywood, Alan M.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Francis, Jane E; Hill, Daniel J.; Pickering, Steven J.; Pope, James O.; Salzmann, Ulrich; Wade, Bidget S

2014-01-01

General Circulation Model simulations of the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, 3.264 to 3.025 Myr ago) currently underestimate the level of warming that proxy data suggest existed at high latitudes, with discrepancies of up to 11°C for sea surface temperature estimates and 17°C for surface air temperature estimates. Sea ice has a strong influence on high-latitude climates, partly due to the albedo feedback. We present results demonstrating the effects of reductions in minimum sea ice albedo limits in general circulation model simulations of the mPWP. While mean annual surface air temperature increases of up to 6°C are observed in the Arctic, the maximum decrease in model-data discrepancies is just 0.81°C. Mean annual sea surface temperatures increase by up to 2°C, with a maximum model-data discrepancy improvement of 1.31°C. It is also suggested that the simulation of observed 21st century sea ice decline could be influenced by the adjustment of the sea ice albedo parameterization.

The response of aboveground plant productivity to earlier snowmelt and summer warming in an Arctic ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livensperger, C.; Steltzer, H.; Darrouzet-Nardi, A.; Sullivan, P.; Wallenstein, M. D.; Weintraub, M. N.

2012-12-01

Plant communities in the Arctic are undergoing changes in structure and function due to shifts in seasonality from changing winters and summer warming. These changes will impact biogeochemical cycling, surface energy balance, and functioning of vertebrate and invertebrate communities. To examine seasonal controls on aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in a moist acidic tundra ecosystem in northern Alaska, we shifted the growing season by accelerating snowmelt (using radiation absorbing shadecloth) and warming air and soil temperature (using 1 m2 open-top chambers), individually and in combination. After three years, we measured ANPP by harvesting up to 16 individual ramets, tillers and rhizomes for each of 7 plant species, including two deciduous shrubs, two graminoids, two evergreen shrubs and one forb during peak season. Our results show that ANPP per stem summed across the 7 species increased when snow melt occurred earlier. However, standing biomass, excluding current year growth, was also greater. The ratio of ANPP/standing biomass decreased in all treatments compared to the control. ANPP per unit standing biomass summed for the four shrub species decreases due to summer warming alone or in combination with early snowmelt; however early snowmelt alone did not lead to lower ANPP for the shrubs. ANPP per tiller or rhizome summed for the three herbaceous species increased in response to summer warming. Understanding the differential response of plants to changing seasonality will inform predictions of future Arctic plant community structure and function.

Early 20th Century Arctic Warming Intensified by Pacific and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokinaga, H.; Xie, S. P.; Mukougawa, H.

2017-12-01

We investigate the influence of Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability on the Arctic temperature, with a particular focus on the early 20th century Arctic warming. Arctic surface air temperature increased rapidly over the early 20th century, at rates comparable to those of recent decades despite much weaker greenhouse gas forcing than at present. We find that the concurrent phase shift of Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability is the major driver for the early 20th century Arctic warming. Atmospheric model simulations reproduce the early Arctic warming when the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is properly prescribed. The early Arctic warming is associated with the cold-to-warm phase shifts of Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal variability modes, a SST pattern reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal and Atlantic multidecadal oscillations. The extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST warming strengthens surface westerly winds over northern Eurasia, intensifying the warming there. The equatorial Pacific warming deepens the Aleutian low, advecting warm air to the North American Arctic. Coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations support the constructive intensification of Arctic warming by a concurrent, cold-to-warm phase shift of the Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability. Our results aid attributing the historical Arctic warming and thereby constrain the amplified warming projected for this important region.

Response and Sensitivity of the Nocturnal Boundary Layer Over Land to Added Longwave Radiative Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNider, R. T.; Steeneveld, G.; Holtslag, B.; Pielke, R. A.; Mackaro, S.; Nair, U. S.; Biazar, A. P.; Christy, J. R.; Walters, J.

2012-12-01

. One of the most significant signals in the thermometer-observed temperature record since 1900 is the decrease in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) over land. CMIP3 climate models only captured about 20% of this trend difference. An update of observed trends through 2010 indicates that CMIP5 models still only capture about 28%. Because climate models have not captured this asymmetry, many investigators have looked to forcing or processes that models have not included to explain the lack of fidelity of models. Our paper takes an alternative view of the role nonlinear dynamics of the stable nocturnal boundary layer (SNBL) may provide as a general explanation of the asymmetry. This was first postulated in a nonlinear analysis of a simple two layer model that found slight changes in incoming longwave radiation might result in large changes in the near surface temperature as the boundary is destabilized slightly due to the added downward radiation. This produced a mixing of warmer temperatures from aloft to the surface as the turbulent mixing was enhanced. In the present study we examine whether this behavior is retained in a more complete multi-layer column model with a state of the art radiation scheme for the stable boundary layer. The response of a nocturnal boundary layer to an added increment of downward radiation from CO2 and water vapor (4.8 W m -2 ) was compared to the solution without this forcing. These experiments showed that indeed the SNBL grew slightly and was less stable due to the added longwave radiation. The model showed that the shelter temperature warmed substantially due to this destabilization. Moreover, the budget calculations showed that only about 20% of the warming was due to the added longwave energy. Most of the warming at shelter height was due to the redistribution. Budget calculations in the paper also showed that the ultimate fate of the added input of longwave energy was highly sensitive to boundary layer parameters and turbulent parameterizations. The model showed that at light winds (weak turbulence) the atmosphere was not able to lift this energy off the surface and into the atmosphere. Thus, more radiation was emitted from the surface. If soil conductivity or heat capacity were large then more of the energy would heat the ground. Parameterizations of the type used in large scale models added much more sensible heat to the atmosphere. Based on these model analyses, it is likely that part of the observed long-term increase in minimum temperature is reflecting a redistribution of heat by changes in turbulence and not by an accumulation of heat in the SNBL. Because of the sensitivity of the shelter temperature to parameters and to uncertain turbulence parameterization in the SNBL, there should be caution about the use of minimum temperatures as a global warming metric in either observations or models.

Waiweras Warmwasserreservoir - Welche Aussagekraft haben Modelle?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kühn, Michael; Altmannsberger, Charlotte; Hens, Carmen

2016-06-01

The warm water geothermal reservoir below the village of Waiwera in New Zealand has been known by the native Maori for centuries. Development by the European immigrants began in 1863. Until the year 1969, the warm water flowing from all drilled wells was artesian. Due to overproduction, water up to 50 °C now needs to be pumped to surface. Further, between 1975 and 1976, all warm water seeps on the beach of Waiwera ran dry. Within the context of sustainable water management, hydrogeological models must be developed as part of a management plan. Approaches of varying complexity have been set-up and applied since the 1980s. However, none of the models directly provide all results required for optimal water management. Answers are given simply to parts of the questions, nonetheless improving resource management of the geothermal reservoir.

Climatic consequences of observed ozone loss in the 1980s: Relevance to the greenhouse problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molnar, G. I.; Ko, M. K. W.; Zhou, S.; Sze, N. D.

1994-01-01

Recently published findings using satellite and ground-based observations indicate a large winter and summertime decrease in the column abundance of ozone at high and middle latitudes during the last decade. Using a simple ozone depletion profile reflecting the observed decrease in ozone column abundance, Ramaswamy et al. (1992) showed that the negative radiative forcing that results from the ozone decrease between 1979 and 1990 approximately balanced the greenhouse climate forcing due to the chlorofluorocarbons emitted during the same period. Here, we extend the forcing analyses by calculating the equilibrium surface temperature response explicitly, using an updated version of the Atmospheric and Environmental Research two-dimensional radiative-dynamical seasonal model. The calculated steady state responses suggest that the surface cooling due to the ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere offsets about 30% of the surface warming due to greenhouse gases emitted during the same decade. The temperature offset is roughly a factor of 2 larger than the corresponding offset obtained from forcing intercomparisons. This result appears to be related to the climate feedback mechanisms operating in the model troposphere, most notably that associated with atmospheric meridional heat transport. Thus a comprehensive assessment of ozone change effects on the predicted greenhouse warming cannot be accomplished based on forcing evaluations alone. Our results also show that calculations adopting a seasonally and latitudinally dependent ozone depletion profile produce a negative forcing about 50% smaller than that calculated for the depletion profile used by Ramaswamy et al. (1992).

An abrupt slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during 1915-1935 induced by solar forcing in a coupled GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, P.; Song, Y.; Yu, Y.; Liu, H.

2014-06-01

In this study, we explore an abrupt change of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) apparent in the historical run simulated by the second version of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model - Spectral Version 2 (FGOALS-s2). The abrupt change is noted during the period from 1915 to 1935, in which the maximal AMOC value is weakened beyond 6 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s-1). The abrupt signal first occurs at high latitudes (north of 46° N), then shifts gradually to middle latitudes (∼35° N) three to seven years later. The weakened AMOC can be explained in the following. The weak total solar irradiance (TIS) during early twentieth century decreases pole-to-equator temperature gradient in the upper stratosphere. The North polar vortex is weakened, which forces a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase during 1905-1914. The negative phase of NAO induces anomalous easterly winds in 50-70° N belts, which decrease the release of heat fluxes from ocean to atmosphere and induce surface warming over these regions. Through the surface ice-albedo feedback, the warming may lead to continuously melting sea ice in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait, which results in freshwater accumulation. This can lead to salinity and density reductions and then an abrupt slowdown of AMOC. Moreover, due to increased TIS after 1914, the enhanced Atlantic northward ocean heat transport from low to high latitudes induces an abrupt warming of sea surface temperature or upper ocean temperature in mid-high latitudes, which can also weaken the AMOC. The abrupt change of AMOC also appears in the PiControl run, which is associated with the lasting negative NAO phases due to natural variability.

Mechanisms of Robust Future Spring Drying in the Southwest U.S. in CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ting, M.; Seager, R.; Li, C.; Liu, H.

2017-12-01

The net surface water budget, precipitation minus evaporation (P-E), shows a clear seasonal cycle in the American Southwest with net gain of surface water (positive P-E) in the cold half of the year (October to March) and net loss of water (negative P-E) in the warmer half (April - September), with June and July being the driest time of the year. There is a significant shift of the summer drying toward earlier in the year under CO2 warming scenario, resulting in substantial spring drying (MAM) of the American Southwest, from the near-term future (2021 - 2040) to the end of the current Century with gradually increasing magnitude. While the spring drying has been identified in previous studies, its mechanism has not been fully addressed. Using moisture budget analysis, we found that the drying is mainly due to decreased mean moisture convergence, partially compensated by the increase in transient eddy moisture flux convergence. The decreased mean moisture convergence is further separated into those due to changes in circulation (dynamic changes) and changes in atmospheric moisture content (thermodynamic changes). The drying is found to be dominated by the thermodynamic driven changes in column averaged moisture convergence, due mainly to increased dry zonal advection caused by the climatological land-ocean thermal contrast, rather than by the well-known "dry gets drier" mechanism. Furthermore, the enhanced dry advection in the warming climate is dominated by the robust zonal mean atmospheric warming, thus the spring drying in Southwest US is very robust. We also discuss reasons this future drying is particularly strong in the spring as compared to the other seasons.

Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokinaga, Hiroki; Xie, Shang-Ping; Mukougawa, Hitoshi

2017-06-01

With amplified warming and record sea ice loss, the Arctic is the canary of global warming. The historical Arctic warming is poorly understood, limiting our confidence in model projections. Specifically, Arctic surface air temperature increased rapidly over the early 20th century, at rates comparable to those of recent decades despite much weaker greenhouse gas forcing. Here, we show that the concurrent phase shift of Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal variability modes is the major driver for the rapid early 20th-century Arctic warming. Atmospheric model simulations successfully reproduce the early Arctic warming when the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is properly prescribed. The early 20th-century Arctic warming is associated with positive SST anomalies over the tropical and North Atlantic and a Pacific SST pattern reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. Atmospheric circulation changes are important for the early 20th-century Arctic warming. The equatorial Pacific warming deepens the Aleutian low, advecting warm air into the North American Arctic. The extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST warming strengthens surface westerly winds over northern Eurasia, intensifying the warming there. Coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations support the constructive intensification of Arctic warming by a concurrent, negative-to-positive phase shift of the Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal modes. Our results aid attributing the historical Arctic warming and thereby constrain the amplified warming projected for this important region.

Relationship between the Arctic oscillation and surface air temperature in multi-decadal time-scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Hiroshi L.; Tamura, Mina

2016-09-01

In this study, a simple energy balance model (EBM) was integrated in time, considering a hypothetical long-term variability in ice-albedo feedback mimicking the observed multi-decadal temperature variability. A natural variability was superimposed on a linear warming trend due to the increasing radiative forcing of CO2. The result demonstrates that the superposition of the natural variability and the background linear trend can offset with each other to show the warming hiatus for some period. It is also stressed that the rapid warming during 1970-2000 can be explained by the superposition of the natural variability and the background linear trend at least within the simple model. The key process of the fluctuating planetary albedo in multi-decadal time scale is investigated using the JRA-55 reanalysis data. It is found that the planetary albedo increased for 1958-1970, decreased for 1970-2000, and increased for 2000-2012, as expected by the simple EBM experiments. The multi-decadal variability in the planetary albedo is compared with the time series of the AO mode and Barents Sea mode of surface air temperature. It is shown that the recent AO negative pattern showing warm Arctic and cold mid-latitudes is in good agreement with planetary albedo change indicating negative anomaly in high latitudes and positive anomaly in mid-latitudes. Moreover, the Barents Sea mode with the warm Barents Sea and cold mid-latitudes shows long-term variability similar to planetary albedo change. Although further studies are needed, the natural variabilities of both the AO mode and Barents Sea mode indicate some possible link to the planetary albedo as suggested by the simple EBM to cause the warming hiatus in recent years.

Influence of Sub-grid-Scale Isentropic Transports on McRAS Evaluations using ARM-CART SCM Datasets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sud, Y. C.; Walker, G. K.; Tao, W. K.

2004-01-01

In GCM-physics evaluations with the currently available ARM-CART SCM datasets, McRAS produced very similar character of near surface errors of simulated temperature and humidity containing typically warm and moist biases near the surface and cold and dry biases aloft. We argued it must have a common cause presumably rooted in the model physics. Lack of vertical adjustment of horizontal transport was thought to be a plausible source. Clearly, debarring such a freedom would force the incoming air to diffuse into the grid-cell which would naturally bias the surface air to become warm and moist while the upper air becomes cold and dry, a characteristic feature of McRAS biases. Since, the errors were significantly larger in the two winter cases that contain potentially more intense episodes of cold and warm advective transports, it further reaffirmed our argument and provided additional motivation to introduce the corrections. When the horizontal advective transports were suitably modified to allow rising and/or sinking following isentropic pathways of subgrid scale motions, the outcome was to cool and dry (or warm and moisten) the lower (or upper) levels. Ever, crude approximations invoking such a correction reduced the temperature and humidity biases considerably. The tests were performed on all the available ARM-CART SCM cases with consistent outcome. With the isentropic corrections implemented through two different numerical approximations, virtually similar benefits were derived further confirming the robustness of our inferences. These results suggest the need for insentropic advective transport adjustment in a GCM due to subgrid scale motions.

Red cell surface changes in cold agglutination

PubMed Central

Salsbury, A. J.; Clarke, J. A.; Shand, W. S.

1968-01-01

Surface changes in red blood cells undergoing cold agglutination have been investigated using the Cambridge Stereoscan electron microscope. On incubation of red cells with a cold agglutinin of anti-I specificity at 4°C, circular shadows on the red cell membrane developed within 2 min. At the same time the membrane showed a granularity and processes began to develop on the surface. These processes increased in length, the processes of contiguous cells became interlinked and agglutination was complete after incubation of 1 hr. On warming an agglutinated specimen, the process was reversed with separation of red cells and retraction of the finger-like processes to yield discrete red cells of normal appearance. The addition of heparin in vivo prevented agglutination but did not inhibit surface changes completely. Complement appeared to play no part in the production of cold agglutination due to these antibodies or in the reversal of agglutination by warming. The significance of the surface changes described in relation to previous information on the mechanism of agglutination, has been discussed. ImagesFig. 1Fig. 2Fig. 3Fig. 4Fig. 5Fig. 6Fig. 7Fig. 8Fig. 9Fig. 10Fig. 11 PMID:5655472

Areas of Anomalous Surface Temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties, Colorado, as Identified from ASTER Thermal Data

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This layer contains areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled very warm surface exposures (thermal anomalies) Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Spatiotemporal structure of wind farm-atmospheric boundary layer interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cervarich, Matthew; Baidya Roy, Somnath; Zhou, Liming

2013-04-01

Wind power is currently one of the fastest growing energy sources in the world. Most of the growth is in the utility sector consisting of large wind farms with numerous industrial-scale wind turbines. Wind turbines act as a sink of mean kinetic energy and a source of turbulent kinetic energy in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). In doing so, they modify the ABL profiles and land-atmosphere exchanges of energy, momentum, mass and moisture. This project explores theses interactions using remote sensing data and numerical model simulations. The domain is central Texas where 4 of the world's largest wind farms are located. A companion study of seasonally-averaged Land Surface Temperature data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on TERRA and AQUA satellites shows a warming signal at night and a mixed cooling/warming signal during the daytime within the wind farms. In the present study, wind farm-ABL interactions are simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The simulations show that the model is capable of replicating the observed signal in land surface temperature. Moreover, similar warming/cooling effect, up to 1C, was observed in seasonal mean 2m air temperature as well. Further analysis show that enhanced turbulent mixing in the rotor wakes is responsible for the impacts on 2m and surface air temperatures. The mixing is due to 2 reasons: (i) turbulent momentum transport to compensate the momentum deficit in the wakes of the turbines and (ii) turbulence generated due to motion of turbine rotors. Turbulent mixing also alters vertical profiles of moisture. Changes in land-atmosphere temperature and moisture gradient and increase in turbulent mixing leads to more than 10% change in seasonal mean surface sensible and latent heat flux. Given the current installed capacity and the projected installation across the world, wind farms are likely becoming a major driver of anthropogenic land use change on Earth. Hence, understanding WF-ABL interactions and its effects is of significant scientific and societal importance.

Ocean Heat Uptake Slows 21st Century Surface Warming Driven by Extratropical Cloud Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, W.; Maroon, E.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Kay, J. E.

2017-12-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the warming in response to instantaneously doubled CO2, has long been used to compare climate models. In many models, ECS is well correlated with warming produced by transient forcing experiments. Modifications to cloud phase at high latitudes in a state-of-the-art climate model, the Community Earth System Model (CESM), produce a large increase in ECS (1.5 K) via extratropical cloud feedbacks. However, only a small surface warming increase occurs in a realistic 21st century simulation including a full-depth dynamic ocean and the "business as usual" RCP8.5 emissions scenario. In fact, the increase in surface warming is only barely above the internal variability-generated range in the CESM Large Ensemble. The small change in 21st century warming is attributed to subpolar ocean heat uptake in both hemispheres. In the Southern Ocean, the mean-state circulation takes up heat while in the North Atlantic a slowdown in circulation acts as a feedback to slow surface warming. These results show the importance of subpolar ocean heat uptake in controlling the pace of warming and demonstrate that ECS cannot be used to reliably infer transient warming when it is driven by extratropical feedbacks.

The reduction in the biomass of cyanobacterial N2 fixer and the biological pump in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean

PubMed Central

Kim, Dongseon; Jeong, Jin-Hyun; Kim, Tae-Wook; Noh, Jae Hoon; Kim, Hyung Jeek; Choi, Dong Han; Kim, Eung; Jeon, Dongchull

2017-01-01

The comparison of sediment trap data with physical and biogeochemical variables in the surface water column of the Tropical Northwestern Pacific Ocean (TNWPO) indicated that the magnitude of the springtime biological pump has reduced with time due to a corresponding decrease in the biomass of cyanobacterial N2 fixer. The decrease in the biomass of N2 fixer likely resulted from a reduction in phosphate concentrations in response to surface water warming and consequent shoaling of the mixed layer depth during the study period (2009−2014). The same reduction in biological pump was also observed during summer. However, the cause of the summer reduction remains uncertain and is worth assessing in future studies. Our findings have major implications for predicting future trends of the biological pump in the TNWPO, where significant warming has occurred. PMID:28155909

Do Southern Ocean Cloud Feedbacks Matter for 21st Century Warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, W. R.; Maroon, E. A.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Kay, J. E.

2017-12-01

Cloud phase improvements in a state-of-the-art climate model produce a large 1.5 K increase in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, the surface warming in response to instantaneously doubled CO2) via extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks. Here we show that the same model improvements produce only a small surface warming increase in a realistic 21st century emissions scenario. The small 21st century warming increase is attributed to extratropical ocean heat uptake. Southern Ocean mean-state circulation takes up heat while a slowdown in North Atlantic circulation acts as a feedback to slow surface warming. Persistent heat uptake by extratropical oceans implies that extratropical cloud biases may not be as important to 21st century warming as biases in other regions. Observational constraints on cloud phase and shortwave radiation that produce a large ECS increase do not imply large changes in 21st century warming.

Vegetation masking effect on future warming and snow albedo feedback in a boreal forest region of northern Eurasia according to MIROC-ESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe, Manabu; Takata, Kumiko; Kawamiya, Michio; Watanabe, Shingo

2017-09-01

The Earth system model, Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-Earth system model (MIROC-ESM), in which the leaf area index (LAI) is calculated interactively with an ecological land model, simulated future changes in the snow water equivalent under the scenario of global warming. Using MIROC-ESM, the effects of the snow albedo feedback (SAF) in a boreal forest region of northern Eurasia were examined under the possible climate future scenario RCP8.5. The simulated surface air temperature (SAT) in spring greatly increases across Siberia and the boreal forest region, whereas the snow cover decreases remarkably only in western Eurasia. The large increase in SAT across Siberia is attributed to strong SAF, which is caused by both the reduced snow-covered fraction and the reduced surface albedo of the snow-covered portion due to the vegetation masking effect in those grid cells. A comparison of the future changes with and without interactive LAI changes shows that in Siberia, the vegetation masking effect increases the spring SAF by about two or three times and enhances the spring warming by approximately 1.5 times. This implies that increases in vegetation biomass in the future are a potential contributing factor to warming trends and that further research on the vegetation masking effect is needed for reliable future projection.

Contrasting sea-ice and open-water boundary layers during melt and freeze-up seasons: Some result from the Arctic Clouds in Summer Experiment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tjernström, Michael; Sotiropoulou, Georgia; Sedlar, Joseph; Achtert, Peggy; Brooks, Barbara; Brooks, Ian; Persson, Ola; Prytherch, John; Salsbury, Dominic; Shupe, Matthew; Johnston, Paul; Wolfe, Dan

2016-04-01

With more open water present in the Arctic summer, an understanding of atmospheric processes over open-water and sea-ice surfaces as summer turns into autumn and ice starts forming becomes increasingly important. The Arctic Clouds in Summer Experiment (ACSE) was conducted in a mix of open water and sea ice in the eastern Arctic along the Siberian shelf during late summer and early autumn 2014, providing detailed observations of the seasonal transition, from melt to freeze. Measurements were taken over both ice-free and ice-covered surfaces, offering an insight to the role of the surface state in shaping the lower troposphere and the boundary-layer conditions as summer turned into autumn. During summer, strong surface inversions persisted over sea ice, while well-mixed boundary layers capped by elevated inversions were frequent over open-water. The former were often associated with advection of warm air from adjacent open-water or land surfaces, whereas the latter were due to a positive buoyancy flux from the warm ocean surface. Fog and stratus clouds often persisted over the ice, whereas low-level liquid-water clouds developed over open water. These differences largely disappeared in autumn, when mixed-phase clouds capped by elevated inversions dominated in both ice-free and ice-covered conditions. Low-level-jets occurred ~20-25% of the time in both seasons. The observations indicate that these jets were typically initiated at air-mass boundaries or along the ice edge in autumn, while in summer they appeared to be inertial oscillations initiated by partial frictional decoupling as warm air was advected in over the sea ice. The start of the autumn season was related to an abrupt change in atmospheric conditions, rather than to the gradual change in solar radiation. The autumn onset appeared as a rapid cooling of the whole atmosphere and the freeze up followed as the warm surface lost heat to the atmosphere. While the surface type had a pronounced impact on boundary-layer structure in summer, the surface was often warmer than the atmosphere in autumn, regardless of surface type. Hence the autumn boundary-layer structure was more dependent on synoptic scale meteorology.

Surface Heat Budgets and Sea Surface Temperature in the Pacific Warm Pool During TOGA COARE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Shu-Hsien; Zhao, Wenzhong; Chou, Ming-Dah

1998-01-01

The daily mean heat and momentum fluxes at the surface derived from the SSM/I and Japan's GMS radiance measurements are used to study the temporal and spatial variability of the surface energy budgets and their relationship to the sea surface temperature during the COARE intensive observing period (IOP). For the three time legs observed during the IOP, the retrieved surface fluxes compare reasonably well with those from the IMET buoy, RV Moana Wave, and RV Wecoma. The characteristics of surface heat and momentum fluxes are very different between the southern and northern warm pool. In the southern warm pool, the net surface heat flux is dominated by solar radiation which is, in turn, modulated by the two Madden-Julian oscillations. The surface winds are generally weak, leading to a shallow ocean mixed layer. The solar radiation penetrating through the bottom of the mixed layer is significant, and the change in the sea surface temperature during the IOP does not follow the net surface heat flux. In the northern warm pool, the northeasterly trade wind is strong and undergoes strong seasonal variation. The variation of the net surface heat flux is dominated by evaporation. The two westerly wind bursts associated with the Madden-Julian oscillations seem to have little effect on the net surface heat flux. The ocean mixed layer is deep, and the solar radiation penetrating through the bottom of the mixed layer is small. As opposed to the southern warm pool, the trend of the sea surface temperature in the northern warm pool during the IOP is in agreement with the variation of the net heat flux at the surface.

Local atmospheric response to warm mesoscale ocean eddies in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Confluence region.

PubMed

Sugimoto, Shusaku; Aono, Kenji; Fukui, Shin

2017-09-19

In the extratropical regions, surface winds enhance upward heat release from the ocean to atmosphere, resulting in cold surface ocean: surface ocean temperature is negatively correlated with upward heat flux. However, in the western boundary currents and eddy-rich regions, the warmer surface waters compared to surrounding waters enhance upward heat release-a positive correlation between upward heat release and surface ocean temperature, implying that the ocean drives the atmosphere. The atmospheric response to warm mesoscale ocean eddies with a horizontal extent of a few hundred kilometers remains unclear because of a lack of observations. By conducting regional atmospheric model experiments, we show that, in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Confluence region, wintertime warm eddies heat the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL), and accelerate westerly winds in the near-surface atmosphere via the vertical mixing effect, leading to wind convergence around the eastern edge of eddies. The warm-eddy-induced convergence forms local ascending motion where convective precipitation is enhanced, providing diabatic heating to the atmosphere above MABL. Our results indicate that warm eddies affect not only near-surface atmosphere but also free atmosphere, and possibly synoptic atmospheric variability. A detailed understanding of warm eddy-atmosphere interaction is necessary to improve in weather and climate projections.

Surface mesoscale features associated with leading convective line-trailing stratiform squall lines over the Gangetic West Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawn, S.; Mandal, M.

2014-08-01

In this paper an attempt is made to identify the mesoscale features in surface pressure pattern, if any, associated with thunderstorm over the Gangetic West Bengal region in India. The study was conducted over Kharagpur and the adjoining area in the Gangetic West Bengal, frequently affected by thunderstorms during the pre-monsoon seasons of April-May. Observations recorded at 50 m instrumented micro-meteorological tower and upper air sounding at Kharagpur under nationally coordinated Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling (STORM) Programme are used to study the variation in surface pressure, wind speed and direction, temperature and relative humidity associated with the squall lines with trailing stratiform precipitation region. In the surface pressure variation, pre-squall mesolow, mesohigh and wake low are identified with the passage of the squall line at Kharagpur. It is observed that in the squall line with trailing stratiform precipitation shield, the mesohigh is associated with convective line and wake low exists at the rear of the storms. The position of the mesohigh is typically found in the vicinity of the heavy rain directly beneath the downdraft. The mesohigh seems to be initiated by the cooling due to evaporation of precipitation in the downdraft and intensified due to the non-hydrostatic effect because of the rainfall directly beneath the downdraft. It is also observed that the passage of trailing edges of the stratiform precipitation coincided with the wake low. Upper air sounding shows mid-tropospheric cooling and lower tropospheric warming. It may be possible due to the dominance of evaporative cooling in the mid-levels and dynamically forced descending motion leading to adiabatic warming in the low levels which may lead to the formation of the wake low.

Effect of Radiative Cooling on Cloud-SST Relationship within the Tropical Pacific Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sui, Chung-Hsiung; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Chou, Ming-Dah; Lau, Ka-Ming; Li, Xiao-Fan; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

A recent analysis found a negative correlation between the area-mean cloud amount and the corresponding mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) within the cloudy areas. The SST-cloud relation becomes more evident when the SST contrast between warm pool and surrounding cold pool (DSST) in the tropical Pacific is stronger than normal. The above feature is related to the finding that the strength of subsidence over the cold pool is limited by radiative cooling because of its small variability. As a result, the area of radiatively-driven subsidence must expand in response to enhanced low-boundary forcing due to SST warming or enhanced basin-scale DSST. This leads to more cloud free regions and less cloudy regions. The increased ratio of cloud-free areas to cloudy areas leads to more high SST areas (>29.50C) due to enhanced solar radiation.

Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability

PubMed Central

Tokinaga, Hiroki; Xie, Shang-Ping; Mukougawa, Hitoshi

2017-01-01

With amplified warming and record sea ice loss, the Arctic is the canary of global warming. The historical Arctic warming is poorly understood, limiting our confidence in model projections. Specifically, Arctic surface air temperature increased rapidly over the early 20th century, at rates comparable to those of recent decades despite much weaker greenhouse gas forcing. Here, we show that the concurrent phase shift of Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal variability modes is the major driver for the rapid early 20th-century Arctic warming. Atmospheric model simulations successfully reproduce the early Arctic warming when the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is properly prescribed. The early 20th-century Arctic warming is associated with positive SST anomalies over the tropical and North Atlantic and a Pacific SST pattern reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. Atmospheric circulation changes are important for the early 20th-century Arctic warming. The equatorial Pacific warming deepens the Aleutian low, advecting warm air into the North American Arctic. The extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST warming strengthens surface westerly winds over northern Eurasia, intensifying the warming there. Coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations support the constructive intensification of Arctic warming by a concurrent, negative-to-positive phase shift of the Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal modes. Our results aid attributing the historical Arctic warming and thereby constrain the amplified warming projected for this important region. PMID:28559341

Climates of U.S. cities in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krayenhoff, E. S.; Georgescu, M.; Moustaoui, M.

2017-12-01

Urban climates are projected to warm over the 21st century due to global climate change and urban development. To assess this projected warming, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations are performed at 20 km resolution over the contiguous U.S. for three 10-year periods: contemporary (2000-2009), mid-century (2050-2059), and end-of-century (2090-2099). Urban land use projections are derived from the EPA's ICLUS data set, and future climate projections are based on two global climate models and two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The potential for design implementations such as `green' roofs and high albedo roofs to offset the projected warming is considered. Effects of urban expansion, urban densification and infrastructure adaptation on urban climate are compared over the century. Assessment considers impacts at both seasonal and diurnal scales, isolates fair weather impacts, and considers multiple climate variables: air temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and surface energy budget partitioning.

Observed Reduction In Surface Solar Radiation - Aerosol Forcing Versus Cloud Feedback?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liepert, B.

The solar radiation reaching the ground is a key parameter for the climate system. It drives the hydrological cycle and numerous biological processes. Surface solar radi- ation revealed an estimated 7W/m2 or 4% decline at sites worldwide from 1961 to 1990. The strongest decline occurred at the United States sites with 19W/m2 or 10%. Increasing air pollution and hence direct and indirect aerosol effect, as we know today can only explain part of the reduction in solar radiation. Increasing cloud optical thick- ness - possibly due to global warming - is a more likely explanation for the observed reduction in solar radiation in the United States. The analysis of surface solar radiation data will be shown and compared with GCM results of the direct and indirect aerosol effect. It will be argued that the residual declines in surface solar radiation is likely due to cloud feedback.

Environmental change at Kartchner Caverns: trying to separate natural and anthropogenic changes

Treesearch

Rickard S. Toomey; Ginger Nolan

2005-01-01

Cave temperature and moisture levels are important factors in the environmental health of Kartchner Caverns. Monitoring indicates the cave has warmed and moisture levels have fallen over the past 14 years. Timing and patterns of change within the cave suggest that changes are due to development as a show cave. However, changes in other caves, surface temperature and...

Revisiting the Cause of the 1989-2009 Arctic Surface Warming Using the Surface Energy Budget: Downward Infrared Radiation Dominates the Surface Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Sukyoung; Gong, Tingting; Feldstein, Steven B.; Screen, James A.; Simmonds, Ian

2017-10-01

The Arctic has been warming faster than elsewhere, especially during the cold season. According to the leading theory, ice-albedo feedback warms the Arctic Ocean during the summer, and the heat gained by the ocean is released during the winter, causing the cold-season warming. Screen and Simmonds (2010; SS10) concluded that the theory is correct by comparing trend patterns in surface air temperature (SAT), surface turbulence heat flux (HF), and net surface infrared radiation (IR). However, in this comparison, downward IR is more appropriate to use. By analyzing the same data used in SS10 using the surface energy budget, it is shown here that over most of the Arctic the skin temperature trend, which closely resembles the SAT trend, is largely accounted for by the downward IR, not the HF, trend.

Relationship Between Sea Surface Temperature and Surface Heat Balance Trends in the Tropical Oceans: The Crucial Role of Surface Wind Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, K. H.; Vizy, E. K.; Sun, X.

2016-12-01

Multiple atmospheric and ocean reanalyses are analyzed for 1980-2015 to understand annual-mean adjustments of the surface heat balance over the tropical oceans as the climate warms. Linear trends are examined, with statistical significance evaluated. While surface heat budgets and sea surface temperatures are mutually adjusted fields, insights into the physical processes of this adjustment and the implications for temperature trends can be identified. Two second-generation reanalyses, ERA-Interim and JRA-55, agree well on the distributions and magnitudes of trends in the net heat flux from the atmosphere to the ocean. Trends in the net longwave and sensible heat fluxes are generally small, and trends in solar radiation absorbed are only influential regionally and vary among the reanalyses. The largest contribution is from latent heat flux trends. Contributions to these trends associated with surface temperature (thermal-driving), 10-m wind (dynamical-driving) and specific humidity (hydrological-driving) trends are estimated. The dynamically-driven latent heat flux dominates and explains much of the regionality of the multi-decadal heat flux trends. However, trends in the net surface heat flux alone do not match the observed SSTs trends well, indicating that the redistribution of heat within the ocean mixed layer is also important. Ocean mixed layer heat budgets in various ocean reanalyses are examined to understand this redistribution, and we again identify a crucial role for changes in the surface wind. Acceleration of the tropical easterlies is associated with strengthening of the equatorial undercurrents in both the tropical Pacific and Atlantic. In the Pacific, where the EUC is also shoaling, the result is enhanced warm-water advection into the central Pacific. This advective warming is superimposed on cooling due to enhanced evaporation and equatorial upwelling, which are also associated with wind trends, to determine the observed pattern of SST trends.

The tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2016-09-01

Global mean surface temperature change over the past 120 years resembles a rising staircase: the overall warming trend was interrupted by the mid-twentieth-century big hiatus and the warming slowdown since about 1998. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation has been implicated in modulations of global mean surface temperatures, but which part of the mode drives the variability in warming rates is unclear. Here we present a successful simulation of the global warming staircase since 1900 with a global ocean-atmosphere coupled model where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are forced to follow the observed evolution. Without prescribed tropical Pacific variability, the same model, on average, produces a continual warming trend that accelerates after the 1960s. We identify four events where the tropical Pacific decadal cooling markedly slowed down the warming trend. Matching the observed spatial and seasonal fingerprints we identify the tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the warming staircase, with radiative forcing driving the overall warming trend. Specifically, tropical Pacific variability amplifies the first warming epoch of the 1910s-1940s and determines the timing when the big hiatus starts and ends. Our method of removing internal variability from the observed record can be used for real-time monitoring of anthropogenic warming.

Asian aerosols: current and year 2030 distributions and implications to human health and regional climate change.

PubMed

Carmichael, Gregory R; Adhikary, Bhupesh; Kulkarni, Sarika; D'Allura, Alessio; Tang, Youhua; Streets, David; Zhang, Qiang; Bond, Tami C; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran; Jamroensan, Aditsuda; Marrapu, Pallavi

2009-08-01

Aerosol distributions in Asia calculated over a 4-year period and constrained by satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are presented. Vast regions in Asia that include > 80% of the population have PM2.5 concentrations that exceed on an annual basis the WHO guideline of 10 microg/m3, often by factors of 2 to 4. These high aerosol loadings also have important radiative effects, causing a significant dimming at the surface, and mask approximately 45% of the warming by greenhouse gases. Black carbon (BC) concentrations are high throughout Asia, representing 5-10% of the total AOD, and contributing significantly to atmospheric warming (its warming potential is approximately 55% of that due to CO2). PM levels and AODs in year 2030, estimated based on simulations that consider future changes in emissions, are used to explore opportunities for win-win strategies built upon addressing air quality and climate change together. It is found that in 2030 the PM2.5 levels in significant parts of Asia will increase and exacerbate health impacts; but the aerosols will have a larger masking effect on radiative forcing, due to a decrease in BC and an increase in SO2 emissions.

The Summertime Warming Trends in Surface Water Temperature of the Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiyama, N.; Kravtsov, S.; Roebber, P.

2014-12-01

Over the past 30 years, the Laurentian Great Lakes have exhibited summertime warming trends in surface water temperature which were greater than those in surface air temperature of the surrounding land, by as much as an order of magnitude over some of the regions. For the years 1995-2012, Lake Superior exhibited the most dramatic warming trend in July-mean temperature, of 0.27±0.15 deg. C yr-1, based on the NOAA's GLSEA satellite observations. Shallower lakes, such as Lake Erie, exhibited smaller warming trends. In addition, within each lake, the warming was also the greatest in the regions of larger water depth; for example, some regions of Lake Superior deeper than 200m exhibited surface-water July-mean warming trends which exceeded 0.3 deg. C yr-1. We used a three-column lake model based on the one developed by Hostetler and Barnstein (1990) coupled with a two-layer atmospheric energy balance model to explore the physics behind these warming trends. We found that, as suggested by Austin and Colman (2007), the ice-albedo feedback plays an important role in amplifying the overlake warming trends. Our particular emphasis was on the question of whether the ice-albedo feedback alone is enough to account for lacustrine amplification of surface warming observed over the Great Lakes region. We found that the answer to this question depends on a number of model parameters, including the diffusion and light attenuation coefficients, which greatly affect the model's skill in reproducing the observed ice coverage of the deep lakes.

Modeling the Warming Impact of Urban Land Expansion on Hot Weather Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: A Case Study of Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaojuan; Tian, Guangjin; Feng, Jinming; Ma, Bingran; Wang, Jun; Kong, Lingqiang

2018-06-01

The impacts of three periods of urban land expansion during 1990-2010 on near-surface air temperature in summer in Beijing were simulated in this study, and then the interrelation between heat waves and urban warming was assessed. We ran the sensitivity tests using the mesoscaleWeather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a single urban canopy model, as well as high-resolution land cover data. The warming area expanded approximately at the same scale as the urban land expansion. The average regional warming induced by urban expansion increased but the warming speed declined slightly during 2000-2010. The smallest warming occurred at noon and then increased gradually in the afternoon before peaking at around 2000 LST—the time of sunset. In the daytime, urban warming was primarily caused by the decrease in latent heat flux at the urban surface. Urbanization led to more ground heat flux during the day and then more release at night, which resulted in nocturnal warming. Urban warming at night was higher than that in the day, although the nighttime increment in sensible heat flux was smaller. This was because the shallower planetary boundary layer at night reduced the release efficiency of near-surface heat. The simulated results also suggested that heat waves or high temperature weather enhanced urban warming intensity at night. Heat waves caused more heat to be stored in the surface during the day, greater heat released at night, and thus higher nighttime warming. Our results demonstrate a positive feedback effect between urban warming and heat waves in urban areas.

Climatic Implications of the Observed Temperature Dependence of the Liquid Water Path of Low Clouds in the Southern Great Plains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DelGenio, Anthony

1999-01-01

Satellite observations of low-level clouds have challenged the assumption that adiabatic liquid water content combined with constant physical thickness will lead to a negative cloud optics feedback in a decadal climate change. We explore the reasons for the satellite results using four years of surface remote sensing data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Cloud and Radiation Testbed site in the Southern Great Plains of the United States. We find that low cloud liquid water path is approximately invariant with temperature in winter but decreases strongly with temperature in summer, consistent with the satellite inferences at this latitude. This behavior occurs because liquid water content shows no detectable temperature dependence while cloud physical thickness decreases with warming. Thinning of clouds with warming is observed on seasonal, synoptic, and diurnal time scales; it is most obvious in the warm sectors of baroclinic waves. Although cloud top is observed to slightly descend with warming, the primary cause of thinning, is the ascent of cloud base due to the reduction in surface relative humidity and the concomitant increase in the lifting condensation level of surface air. Low cloud liquid water path is not observed to be a continuous function of temperature. Rather, the behavior we observe is best explained as a transition in the frequency of occurrence of different boundary layer types. At cold temperatures, a mixture of stratified and convective boundary layers is observed, leading to a broad distribution of liquid water path values, while at warm temperatures, only convective boundary layers with small liquid water paths, some of them decoupled, are observed. Our results, combined with the earlier satellite inferences, imply that the commonly quoted 1.5C lower limit for the equilibrium global climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 which is based on models with near-adiabatic liquid water behavior and constant physical thickness, should be revised upward.

Climatic Implications of the Observed Temperature Dependence of the Liquid Water Path of Low Clouds in the Southern Great Plains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DelGenio, Anthony D.; Wolf, Audrey B.

1999-01-01

Satellite observations of low-level clouds have challenged the assumption that adiabatic liquid water content combined with constant physical thickness will lead to a negative cloud optics feedback in a decadal climate change. We explore the reasons for the satellite results using four years of surface remote sensing data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Cloud and Radiation Testbed site in the Southern Great Plains of the United States. We find that low cloud liquid water path is approximately invariant with temperature in winter but decreases strongly with temperature in summer, consistent with the satellite inferences at this latitude. This behavior occurs because liquid water content shows no detectable temperature dependence while cloud physical thickness decreases with warming. Thinning of clouds with warming is observed on seasonal, synoptic, and diurnal time scales; it is most obvious in the warm sectors of baroclinic waves. Although cloud top is observed to slightly descend with warming, the primary cause of thinning is the ascent of cloud base due to the reduction in surface relative humidity and the concomitant increase in the lifting condensation level of surface air. Low cloud liquid water path is not observed to be a continuous function of temperature. Rather, the behavior we observe is best explained as a transition in the frequency of occurrence of different boundary layer types: At cold temperatures, a mixture of stratified and convective boundary layers is observed, leading to a broad distribution of liquid water path values, while at warm temperatures, only convective boundary layers with small liquid water paths, some of them decoupled, are observed. Our results, combined with the earlier satellite inferences, imply that the commonly quoted 1.50 C lower limit for the equilibrium global climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2, which is based on models with near-adiabatic liquid water behavior and constant physical thickness, should be revised upward.

ENSO Weather and Coral Bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGowan, Hamish; Theobald, Alison

2017-10-01

The most devastating mass coral bleaching has occurred during El Niño events, with bleaching reported to be a direct result of increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, El Niño itself does not cause SSTs to rise in all regions that experience bleaching. Nor is the upper ocean warming trend of 0.11°C per decade since 1971, attributed to global warming, sufficient alone to exceed the thermal tolerance of corals. Here we show that weather patterns during El Niño that result in reduced cloud cover, higher than average air temperatures and higher than average atmospheric pressures, play a crucial role in determining the extent and location of coral bleaching on the world's largest coral reef system, the World Heritage Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Accordingly, synoptic-scale weather patterns and local atmosphere-ocean feedbacks related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and not large-scale SST warming due to El Niño alone and/or global warming are often the cause of coral bleaching on the GBR.

Distinctive ocean interior changes during the recent warming slowdown

PubMed Central

Cheng, Lijing; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

2015-01-01

The earth system experiences continuous heat input, but a “climate hiatus” of upper ocean waters has been observed in this century. This leads to a question: where is the extra heat going? Using four in situ observation datasets, we explore the ocean subsurface temperature changes from 2004 to 2013. The observations all show that the ocean has continued to gain heat in this century, which is indicative of anthropogenic global warming. However, a distinctive pattern of change in the interior ocean is observed. The sea surface (1–100 m) temperature has decreased in this century, accompanied by warming in the 101–300 m layer. This pattern is due to the changes in the frequency of El Niño and La Niña events (ENSO characteristics), according to both observations and CMIP5 model simulations. In addition, we show for the first time that the ocean subsurface within 301–700 m experienced a net cooling, indicative of another instance of variability in the natural ocean. Furthermore, the ocean layer of 701–1500 m has experienced significant warming. PMID:26394551

Distinctive ocean interior changes during the recent warming slowdown.

PubMed

Cheng, Lijing; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

2015-09-23

The earth system experiences continuous heat input, but a "climate hiatus" of upper ocean waters has been observed in this century. This leads to a question: where is the extra heat going? Using four in situ observation datasets, we explore the ocean subsurface temperature changes from 2004 to 2013. The observations all show that the ocean has continued to gain heat in this century, which is indicative of anthropogenic global warming. However, a distinctive pattern of change in the interior ocean is observed. The sea surface (1-100 m) temperature has decreased in this century, accompanied by warming in the 101-300 m layer. This pattern is due to the changes in the frequency of El Niño and La Niña events (ENSO characteristics), according to both observations and CMIP5 model simulations. In addition, we show for the first time that the ocean subsurface within 301-700 m experienced a net cooling, indicative of another instance of variability in the natural ocean. Furthermore, the ocean layer of 701-1500 m has experienced significant warming.

Detection of Warming Effects Due to Industrialization: An Accumulated Intervention Model with an Application in Pohang, Korea.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryoo, S. B.; Moon, S. E.

1995-06-01

Modifications of surface air temperature caused by anthropogenic impacts have received much attention recently because of the heightened interest in climatic change. When an industrial area is constructed, resulting in a large-scale anthropogenic heat source, is it possible to detect the warming effect of the heat source? In this paper, the intensity of warming is estimated in the area of the source. A statistical model is suggested to estimate the warming caused by that anthropogenic heat source. The model used in this study is an accumulated intervention (AI) model that is applied to industrial heat perturbations that occurred in the area. To evaluate the AI model performance, the forecast experiment was carried out with an independent dataset. The data used in this study are the monthly mean temperatures at Pohang, Korea. The AI model was developed based on the data for the 38-year period from 1953 to 1990, and the forecast experiment was carried out with an independent dataset for the 2-year period from 1991 to 1992.

Tropical Pacific variability as a key pacemaker of the global warming staircase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosaka, Y.; Xie, S. P.

2016-12-01

Global-mean surface temperature (GMST) has increased since the 19th century with notable interdecadal accelerations and slowdowns, forming the global-warming "staircase". The last step of this staircase is the surface warming slowdown since the late 1990s, for which the transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) from a positive to negative state has been suggested as the leading mechanism. To examine the role of IPO in the entire warming staircase, a long pacemaker experiment is performed with a coupled climate model where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are forced to follow the observed evolution since the late 19th century. The pacemaker experiment successfully reproduces the staircase-like global warming remarkably well since 1900. Without the tropical Pacific effect, the same model produces a continual warming from the 1900s to the 1960 followed by rapid warming. The successful reproduction identifies the tropical Pacific decadal variability as a key pacemaker of the GMST staircase. We further propose a method to remove internal variability from observed GMST changes for real-time monitoring of anthropogenic warming.

Does the climate warming hiatus exist over the Tibetan Plateau?

PubMed

Duan, Anmin; Xiao, Zhixiang

2015-09-02

The surface air temperature change over the Tibetan Plateau is determined based on historical observations from 1980 to 2013. In contrast to the cooling trend in the rest of China, and the global warming hiatus post-1990s, an accelerated warming trend has appeared over the Tibetan Plateau during 1998-2013 (0.25 °C decade(-1)), compared with that during 1980-1997 (0.21 °C decade(-1)). Further results indicate that, to some degree, such an accelerated warming trend might be attributable to cloud-radiation feedback. The increased nocturnal cloud over the northern Tibetan Plateau would warm the nighttime temperature via enhanced atmospheric back-radiation, while the decreased daytime cloud over the southern Tibetan Plateau would induce the daytime sunshine duration to increase, resulting in surface air temperature warming. Meanwhile, the in situ surface wind speed has recovered gradually since 1998, and thus the energy concentration cannot explain the accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau after the 1990s. It is suggested that cloud-radiation feedback may play an important role in modulating the recent accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau.

An Assessment of the SST Simulation Using the Climate Forecast System Coupled to the SSiB Surface Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Xue, Y.; Huang, B.; Lee, J.; De Sales, F.

2016-12-01

A long term simulation has been conducted using the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) coupled to the SSiB-2 land model, which consists of the Global Forecast System atmospheric model (GFS) and the Modular Ocean model - version 4 (MOM4) as the ocean component. This study evaluates the model's performance in simulating sea surface temperature (SST) mean state, trend, and inter-annual and decadal variabilities. The model is able to produce the reasonable spatial distribution of the SST climatology; however, it has prominent large scale biases. In the middle latitude of the Northern Hemisphere, major cold biases is close to the warm side of the large SST gradients, which may be associated with the weaker Kuroshio and Gulf Stream extensions that diffuse the SST gradient. IN addition, warm biases extend along the west coast of the North America continent to the high latitude, which may be related with excessive Ekman down-welling and solar radiation fluxes reaching to the surface due to the lack of cloud there. Warm biases also exist over the tropical cold tough areas in the Pacific and Atlantic. The global SST trend and interannual variations are well captured except for that in the south Hemisphere after year 2000, which is mainly contributed by the bias from the southern Pacific Ocean. Although the model fails to accurately produce ENSO events in proper years, it does reproduce the ENSO frequency well; they are skewed toward more warm events after 1990. The model also shows ability in SST decadal variation, such as the so-called inter-decadal Pacific oscillation (IPO); however, its phases seem to go reversely compared with the observation.

Hiatus on the upward staircase of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, S. P.; Kosaka, Y.

2016-12-01

Since the 19th century, global-mean surface temperature (GMST) has risen in staircase-like stages due to contributions from both radiative forcing and internal variability. Our earlier study showed that tropical Pacific variability, specifically the La Nina-like cooling, caused the current hiatus of global warming. We have extended the Pacific Ocean-Global Atmosphere (POGA) pacemaker experiment back to the late 19th century, by restoring tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies towards the observed history. POGA reproduces annual-mean GMST variability with high correlation. We quantify relative contributions from the radiative forcing and tropical Pacific variability for various epochs of the staircase. Beyond the global mean, POGA also captures observed regional trends of surface temperature for these periods, especially over the tropical Indian Ocean, Indian subcontinent, North and South Pacific and North America. The POGA effect for the recent hiatus is comparable in magnitude with that at the beginning of the 20th century, but lasts the longest in duration over the past 150 years. The attendant strengthening of the Pacific trade winds since the 1990s is unprecedented on the instrumental record. To the extent that POGA captures much of the internal variability in GMST, we can infer radiatively forced GMST response. This method has the advantage of being independent of the model's radiative forcing and climate sensitivity. While raw data show a warming of 0.9 degree C for the recent five-year period of 2010-2014 relative to 1900, our new calculation yields a much higher anthropogenic warming of 1.2 C after correcting for the internal variability effect. This indicates that the task is more challenging than thought to implement the Paris consensus of limiting global average temperature change to below 2 C above preindustrial levels.

Characteristics of Winter Surface Air Temperature Anomalies in Moscow in 1970-2016 under Conditions of Reduced Sea Ice Area in the Barents Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukurov, K. A.; Semenov, V. A.

2018-01-01

On the basis of observational data on daily mean surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents Sea (BS), the characteristics of strong positive and negative winter SAT anomalies in Moscow have been studied in comparison with BS SIC data obtained in 1949-2016. An analysis of surface backward trajectories of air-particle motions has revealed the most probable paths of both cold and warm air invasions into Moscow and located regions that mostly affect strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow. Atmospheric circulation anomalies that cause strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow have been revealed. Changes in the ways of both cold and warm air invasions have been found, as well as an increase in the frequency of blocking anticyclones in 2005-2016 when compared to 1970-1999. The results suggest that a winter SIC decrease in the BS in 2005-2016 affects strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow due to an increase in the frequency of occurrence of blocking anticyclones to the south of and over the BS.

Convective and radiative components of wind chill in sheep: Estimation from meteorological records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, D.; Mount, L. E.

1987-06-01

Wind chill is defined as the excess of sensible heat loss over what would occur at zero wind speed with other conditions unchanged. Wind chill can be broken down into a part that is determined by air temperature and a radiative part that comprises wind-dependent effects on additional long-wave radiative exchange and on solar radiation (by reducing solar warming). Radiative exchange and gain from solar radiation are affected by changes that are produced by wind in both surface and fleece insulations. Coefficients are derived for (a) converting the components of sensible heat exchange (air-temperature-dependent including both convective and associated long-wave radiative, additional long-wave radiative and solar) into the components of the total heat loss that are associated with wind and (b) for calculating equivalent air temperature changes. The coefficients contain terms only in wind speed, wetting of the fleece and fleece depth; these determine the external insulation. Calculation from standard meteorological records, using Plymouth and Aberdeen in 1973 as examples, indicate that in April September 1973 at Plymouth reduction in effective solar warming constituted 28% of the 24-h total wind chill, and 7% in the other months of the year combined; at Aberdeen the corresponding percentages were 25% and 6%. Mean hour-of-day estimates for the months of April and October showed that at midday reduction in solar warming due to wind rose to the order of half the air-temperature-dependent component of wind chill, with a much smaller effect in January. For about six hours at midday in July reduction in solar warming due to wind was similar in magnitude to the air-temperature-dependent component. It is concluded that realistic estimates of wind chill cannot be obtained unless the effect of solar radiation is taken into account. Failure to include solar radiation results not only in omitting solar warming but also in omitting the effects of wind in reducing that warming. The exchange of sensible (non-evaporative) heat loss between a homeothermic animal and its environment can be divided into two parts: one part is due to the temperature difference between the animal and the surrounding air, and the other part is due to additional long-wave radiative exchange between animal and environment and to solar radiation. Both parts of the heat exchange are determined in magnitude by the animal's thermal insulation, which is itself affected by windspeed and wetting. Wind diminishes as animal's external insulation, so increasing heat loss under all conditions when the air temperature is lower than the animal's surface temperature: this effect is termed wind chill. Wind chill has previously been investigated more commonly in relation to man (Burton an Edholm, 1955; Smithson and Baldwin, 1978; Mumford, 1979; Baldwin and Smithson, 1979). This paper is concerned with the separate contributions to wind chill calculated for sheep that can be associated with convective and radiative heat exchanges.

High Lapse Rates in AIRS Retrieved Temperatures in Cold Air Outbreaks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fetzer, Eric J.; Kahn, Brian; Olsen, Edward T.; Fishbein, Evan

2004-01-01

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) experiment, on NASA's Aqua spacecraft, uses a combination of infrared and microwave observations to retrieve cloud and surface properties, plus temperature and water vapor profiles comparable to radiosondes throughout the troposphere, for cloud cover up to 70%. The high spectral resolution of AIRS provides sensitivity to important information about the near-surface atmosphere and underlying surface. A preliminary analysis of AIRS temperature retrievals taken during January 2003 reveals extensive areas of superadiabatic lapse rates in the lowest kilometer of the atmosphere. These areas are found predominantly east of North America over the Gulf Stream, and, off East Asia over the Kuroshio Current. Accompanying the high lapse rates are low air temperatures, large sea-air temperature differences, and low relative humidities. Imagery from a Visible / Near Infrared instrument on the AIRS experiment shows accompanying clouds. These lines of evidence all point to shallow convection in the bottom layer of a cold air mass overlying warm water, with overturning driven by heat flow from ocean to atmosphere. An examination of operational radiosondes at six coastal stations in Japan shows AIRS to be oversensitive to lower tropospheric lapse rates due to systematically warm near-surface air temperatures. The bias in near-surface air temperature is seen to be independent of sea surface temperature, however. AIRS is therefore sensitive to air-sea temperature difference, but with a warm atmospheric bias. A regression fit to radiosondes is used to correct AIRS near-surface retrieved temperatures, and thereby obtain an estimate of the true atmosphere-ocean thermal contrast in five subtropical regions across the north Pacific. Moving eastward, we show a systematic shift in this air-sea temperature differences toward more isothermal conditions. These results, while preliminary, have implications for our understanding of heat flow from ocean to atmosphere. We anticipate future improvements in the AIRS retrieval algorithm will lead to improved understanding of the exchange of sensible and latent heat from ocean to atmosphere, and more realistic near-surface lapse rates.

Fine-scale climate change: modelling spatial variation in biologically meaningful rates of warming.

PubMed

Maclean, Ilya M D; Suggitt, Andrew J; Wilson, Robert J; Duffy, James P; Bennie, Jonathan J

2017-01-01

The existence of fine-grain climate heterogeneity has prompted suggestions that species may be able to survive future climate change in pockets of suitable microclimate, termed 'microrefugia'. However, evidence for microrefugia is hindered by lack of understanding of how rates of warming vary across a landscape. Here, we present a model that is applied to provide fine-grained, multidecadal estimates of temperature change based on the underlying physical processes that influence microclimate. Weather station and remotely derived environmental data were used to construct physical variables that capture the effects of terrain, sea surface temperatures, altitude and surface albedo on local temperatures, which were then calibrated statistically to derive gridded estimates of temperature. We apply the model to the Lizard Peninsula, United Kingdom, to provide accurate (mean error = 1.21 °C; RMS error = 1.63 °C) hourly estimates of temperature at a resolution of 100 m for the period 1977-2014. We show that rates of warming vary across a landscape primarily due to long-term trends in weather conditions. Total warming varied from 0.87 to 1.16 °C, with the slowest rates of warming evident on north-east-facing slopes. This variation contributed to substantial spatial heterogeneity in trends in bioclimatic variables: for example, the change in the length of the frost-free season varied from +11 to -54 days and the increase in annual growing degree-days from 51 to 267 °C days. Spatial variation in warming was caused primarily by a decrease in daytime cloud cover with a resulting increase in received solar radiation, and secondarily by a decrease in the strength of westerly winds, which has amplified the effects on temperature of solar radiation on west-facing slopes. We emphasize the importance of multidecadal trends in weather conditions in determining spatial variation in rates of warming, suggesting that locations experiencing least warming may not remain consistent under future climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.

PubMed

Johnson, Nathaniel C; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Xichen

2018-04-30

The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.

Covariability of seasonal temperature and precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula in high-resolution regional climate simulations (1001-2099)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Montes, S.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Rodrigo, F. S.; García-Valero, J. A.; Montávez, J. P.

2017-04-01

Precipitation and surface temperature are interdependent variables, both as a response to atmospheric dynamics and due to intrinsic thermodynamic relationships and feedbacks between them. This study analyzes the covariability of seasonal temperature (T) and precipitation (P) across the Iberian Peninsula (IP) using regional climate paleosimulations for the period 1001-1990, driven by reconstructions of external forcings. Future climate (1990-2099) was simulated according to SRES scenarios A2 and B2. These simulations enable exploring, at high spatial resolution, robust and physically consistent relationships. In winter, positive P-T correlations dominate west-central IP (Pearson correlation coefficient ρ = + 0.43, for 1001-1990), due to prevalent cold-dry and warm-wet conditions, while this relationship weakens and become negative towards mountainous, northern and eastern regions. In autumn, negative correlations appear in similar regions as in winter, whereas for summer they extend also to the N/NW of the IP. In spring, the whole IP depicts significant negative correlations, strongest for eastern regions (ρ = - 0.51). This is due to prevalent frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes in these regions and seasons. At the temporal scale, regional correlation series between seasonal anomalies of temperature and precipitation (assessed in 31 years running windows in 1001-1990) show very large multidecadal variability. For winter and spring, periodicities of about 50-60 years arise. The frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes appears correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), explaining mainly co-variability changes in spring. For winter and some regions in autumn, maximum and minimum P-T correlations appear in periods with enhanced meridional or easterly circulation (low or high pressure anomalies in the Mediterranean and Europe). In spring and summer, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation shows some fingerprint on the frequency of warm/cold modes. For future scenarios, an intensification of the negative P-T relationship is generally found, as a result of an increased frequency of the warm-dry mode.

Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkelmann, Ricarda; Levermann, Anders; Martin, Maria A.; Frieler, Katja

2013-04-01

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea-level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500, show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario.

Surface wave effects on water temperature in the Baltic Sea: simulations with the coupled NEMO-WAM model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alari, Victor; Staneva, Joanna; Breivik, Øyvind; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Mogensen, Kristian; Janssen, Peter

2016-08-01

Coupled circulation (NEMO) and wave model (WAM) system was used to study the effects of surface ocean waves on water temperature distribution and heat exchange at regional scale (the Baltic Sea). Four scenarios—including Stokes-Coriolis force, sea-state dependent energy flux (additional turbulent kinetic energy due to breaking waves), sea-state dependent momentum flux and the combination these forcings—were simulated to test the impact of different terms on simulated temperature distribution. The scenario simulations were compared to a control simulation, which included a constant wave-breaking coefficient, but otherwise was without any wave effects. The results indicate a pronounced effect of waves on surface temperature, on the distribution of vertical temperature and on upwelling's. Overall, when all three wave effects were accounted for, did the estimates of temperature improve compared to control simulation. During the summer, the wave-induced water temperature changes were up to 1 °C. In northern parts of the Baltic Sea, a warming of the surface layer occurs in the wave included simulations in summer months. This in turn reduces the cold bias between simulated and measured data, e.g. the control simulation was too cold compared to measurements. The warming is related to sea-state dependent energy flux. This implies that a spatio-temporally varying wave-breaking coefficient is necessary, because it depends on actual sea state. Wave-induced cooling is mostly observed in near-coastal areas and is the result of intensified upwelling in the scenario, when Stokes-Coriolis forcing is accounted for. Accounting for sea-state dependent momentum flux results in modified heat exchange at the water-air boundary which consequently leads to warming of surface water compared to control simulation.

Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus

DOE PAGES

Liu, Wei; Xie, Shang -Ping; Lu, Jian

2016-03-30

Ocean heat uptake is observed to penetrate deep during the recent hiatus1,2,3 of global warming in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean. This has been suggested to indicate that the two regions are the driver of the surface warming hiatus4. We show that the deep heat penetration in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean is not unique to the hiatus but common to the past four decades including the 1970s-90s epoch of accelerated surface warming. Our analyses of a large ensemble simulation5 confirm the deep heat penetration in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean in ensemble members with or without surface warming hiatusmore » in the early 21th century. During the past four decades, the global ocean heat content (OHC) of upper 1500m is dominated by a warming trend, and the depth of anthropogenic heat penetration merely reflects the depth of the mean meridional overturning circulation in the basin. Furthermore, the heat penetration depth is not a valid basis to infer the hiatus mechanism.« less

Determination and impact of surface radiative processes for TOGA COARE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curry, Judith A.; Ackerman, Thomas; Rossow, William B.; Webster, Peter J.

1991-01-01

Experiments using atmospheric general circulation models have shown that the atmospheric circulation is very sensitive to small changes in sea surface temperature in the tropical western Pacific Ocean warm pool region. The mutual sensitivity of the ocean and the atmosphere in the warm pool region places stringent requirements on models of the coupled ocean atmosphere system. At present, the situation is such that diagnostic studies using available data sets have been unable to balance the surface energy budget in the warm pool region to better than 50 to 80 W/sq m. The Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) is an observation and modelling program that aims specifically at the elucidation of the physical process which determine the mean and transient state of the warm pool region and the manner in which the warm pool interacts with the global ocean and atmosphere. This project focuses on one very important aspect of the ocean atmosphere interface component of TOGA COARE, namely the temporal and spatial variability of surface radiative fluxes in the warm pool region.

Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Wei; Xie, Shang -Ping; Lu, Jian

Ocean heat uptake is observed to penetrate deep during the recent hiatus1,2,3 of global warming in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean. This has been suggested to indicate that the two regions are the driver of the surface warming hiatus4. We show that the deep heat penetration in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean is not unique to the hiatus but common to the past four decades including the 1970s-90s epoch of accelerated surface warming. Our analyses of a large ensemble simulation5 confirm the deep heat penetration in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean in ensemble members with or without surface warming hiatusmore » in the early 21th century. During the past four decades, the global ocean heat content (OHC) of upper 1500m is dominated by a warming trend, and the depth of anthropogenic heat penetration merely reflects the depth of the mean meridional overturning circulation in the basin. Furthermore, the heat penetration depth is not a valid basis to infer the hiatus mechanism.« less

Modification of cirrus clouds to reduce global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, D. L.

2009-12-01

Since both greenhouse gases and cirrus clouds strongly affect outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) with no affect or less affect on solar radiation, respectively, an attempt to delay global warming to buy time for emission reduction strategies to work might naturally target cirrus clouds. Cirrus having optical depths < 3.6 cover 13% of the globe and have a net warming effect on climate, with the coldest cirrus having the strongest warming effect. Roughly 2/3 of predicted global warming is due to the feedback effect of water vapor and clouds from an initial greenhouse gas forcing, and a recent study indicates water vapor and clouds in the upper troposphere (UT) have the greatest impact on climate sensitivity (the equilibrium response of global-mean surface temperature to a CO2 doubling). Thus altering UT water vapor and cirrus may be a good strategy for climate engineering. Cirrus cloud coverage is predicted to be sensitive to the ice fall speed which depends on ice crystal size. The higher the cirrus, the greater their impact is on OLR. Thus by changing ice crystal size in the coldest cirrus, OLR and climate might be modified. Fortunately the coldest cirrus have the highest ice supersaturation due to the dominance of homogeneous freezing nucleation. Seeding such cirrus with very efficient heterogeneous ice nuclei should produce larger ice crystals due to vapor competition effects, thus increasing OLR and surface cooling. Preliminary estimates of this global net cloud forcing via GCM simulations are more negative than -2.8 W m-2 and could neutralize the radiative forcing due to a CO2 doubling (3.7 W m-2). This cirrus engineered net forcing is due to (1) reduced cirrus coverage and (2) reduced upper tropospheric water vapor, due to enhanced ice sedimentation. The implementation of this climate engineering could use the airline industry to disperse the seeding material. Commercial airliners typically fly at temperatures between -40 and -60 deg. C (where homogeneous freezing nucleation dominates). Weather modification research has developed ice nucleating substances that are extremely effective at these cold temperatures, are non-toxic and are relatively inexpensive. The seeding material could be released in both clear and cloudy conditions to build up a background concentration of efficient ice nuclei so that non-contrail cirrus will experience these nuclei and grow larger ice crystals. Flight corridors are denser in the high- and mid-latitudes where global warming is more severe. A risk with any geoengineering experiment is that it could affect climate in unforeseen ways, causing more harm than good. Since seeding aerosol residence times in the troposphere are 1-2 weeks, the climate might return back to its normal state within a few months after stopping the geoengineering. A drawback to this approach is that it would not stop ocean acidification. It may not have many of the draw-backs that stratospheric injection of sulfur species has, such as ozone destruction, decreased solar radiation possibly altering the hydrological cycle with more frequent droughts, greater expense, the creation of a white sky and less solar energy. In addition, modeling studies indicate it would take at least 3 years for the climate system to return to “normal” upon termination of stratospheric geoengineering.

The warmer the ocean surface, the shallower the mixed layer. How much of this is true?

PubMed Central

González‐Pola, C.; Fernández‐Diaz, J.

2017-01-01

Abstract Ocean surface warming is commonly associated with a more stratified, less productive, and less oxygenated ocean. Such an assertion is mainly based on consistent projections of increased near‐surface stratification and shallower mixed layers under global warming scenarios. However, while the observed sea surface temperature (SST) is rising at midlatitudes, the concurrent ocean record shows that stratification is not unequivocally increasing nor is MLD shoaling. We find that while SST increases at three study areas at midlatitudes, stratification both increases and decreases, and MLD deepens with enhanced deepening of winter MLDs at rates over 10 m  decade−1. These results rely on the estimation of several MLD and stratification indexes of different complexity on hydrographic profiles from long‐term hydrographic time‐series, ocean reanalysis, and Argo floats. Combining this information with estimated MLDs from buoyancy fluxes and the enhanced deepening/attenuation of the winter MLD trends due to changes in the Ekman pumping, MLD variability involves a subtle interplay between circulation and atmospheric forcing at midlatitudes. Besides, it is highlighted that the density difference between the surface and 200 m, the most widely used stratification index, should not be expected to reliably inform about changes in the vertical extent of mixing. PMID:29201584

The warmer the ocean surface, the shallower the mixed layer. How much of this is true?

PubMed

Somavilla, R; González-Pola, C; Fernández-Diaz, J

2017-09-01

Ocean surface warming is commonly associated with a more stratified, less productive, and less oxygenated ocean. Such an assertion is mainly based on consistent projections of increased near-surface stratification and shallower mixed layers under global warming scenarios. However, while the observed sea surface temperature (SST) is rising at midlatitudes, the concurrent ocean record shows that stratification is not unequivocally increasing nor is MLD shoaling. We find that while SST increases at three study areas at midlatitudes, stratification both increases and decreases, and MLD deepens with enhanced deepening of winter MLDs at rates over 10 m  decade-1. These results rely on the estimation of several MLD and stratification indexes of different complexity on hydrographic profiles from long-term hydrographic time-series, ocean reanalysis, and Argo floats. Combining this information with estimated MLDs from buoyancy fluxes and the enhanced deepening/attenuation of the winter MLD trends due to changes in the Ekman pumping, MLD variability involves a subtle interplay between circulation and atmospheric forcing at midlatitudes. Besides, it is highlighted that the density difference between the surface and 200 m, the most widely used stratification index, should not be expected to reliably inform about changes in the vertical extent of mixing.

Seasonal greening of an Arctic ecosystem in response to early snowmelt and climate warming: do plant community responses differ from species responses?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steltzer, H.; Weintraub, M. N.; Sullivan, P.; Wallenstein, M. D.; Schimel, J.; Darrouzet-Nardi, A.; Shory, R.; Livensperger, C.; Melle, C.; Segal, A. D.; Daly, K.; Tsosie, T.

2011-12-01

In the Arctic and around the world, earlier plant growth and a longer growing season are indications that warmer temperatures or other global changes are changing the seasonality of the Earth's ecosystems. These changes in plant life histories have multi-trophic level consequences that affect food webs and biogeochemical cycles. Both the response of the plant community and of individual species can affect food and habitat resources for animals or nutrient resources for microbes. Our aim was to determine if the response of an Arctic plant community differs from individual species responses to climate change. For two years in an early snowmelt and climate warming experiment in moist acidic tussock tundra, we observed the seasonal greening of the ecosystem through near-surface measurements of surface greenness and through direct observations of the timing of plant life history events for five to eight common species that differ in growth form. In 2010 when snowmelt was accelerated by 4 days, earlier snowmelt alone or in combination with climate warming extended the life history of the dominant graminoids (E. vaginatum and C. bigelowii) and willow (S. pulchra) by 3 to 4 days. For these species, new leaf production began earlier, while the timing of senescence was similar to the controls. The effect of earlier snowmelt on the life histories of birch (B. nana) and cranberry (V. vitis-idaea) was less, but warming alone tended to increase life history duration. Warming led to earlier leaf expansion for birch and delayed senescence for cranberry. We found that the onset of greening for the plant community began four days earlier, due to the earlier loss of snow cover, and that warming accelerated the rate of greening. Peak season ended 4 days earlier in response to earlier snowmelt and climate warming, due to earlier senescence by birch. In 2011, our manipulation of the snowpack by increasing energy absorption accelerated snowmelt by 15 days and control plots were snowfree on almost the same date as in 2010. As a result greening began earlier and may have led to more varied effects on life history events among the species. In the Arctic, individual species and the plant community green up as soon as the snow is gone, creating food resources and hiding places for animals and a nutrient sink for available nitrogen. If warming temperatures also cue earlier animal development or arrival, resources should be available for most species. However, an early onset to growth can lead to early senescence for some plant species and shift the timing of peak season for the plant community. Animals that depend on late season resources may be affected, unless they can utilize the plant species for which senescence is delayed.

Modeling Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in warm climates: a historical perspective.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollard, D.; Deconto, R. M.; Gasson, E.

2016-12-01

Early modeling of Antarctic Ice Sheet size vs. climate focused on asymmetry between retreat and growth, with much greater warming needed to cause retreat from full ice cover, due to Height Mass Balance Feedback and albedo feedback. This led to a long-standing model-data conflict, with models needing 1000 to2000 ppmv atmospheric CO2 to produce retreat from full size, vs. proxy data of large ice fluctuations despite much lower CO2 since the Miocene.Subsequent modeling with marine ice physics found that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could undergo repeated warm-period collapses with realistic past forcing. However, that yields only 3 to 7 m equivalent sea-level rise above modern, compared to 10 to 20 m or more suggested by some geologic data. Large subglacial basins in East Antarctica could be vulnerable to the same processes,but did not retreat in most models due to narrower and shallower sills.After recent modifications, some ice sheet models were able to produce warm-period collapse of major East Antarctic basins, with sea-level rise of up to 15 m. The modifications are (i) hydrofracturing by surface melt, and structural failure of ice cliffs, or (ii) numerical treatment at the grounding line. In these models, large retreat occurs both for past warmintervals, and also for future business-as-usual scenarios.Some interpretations of data in the late Oligocene and Miocene suggest yet larger fluctuations, between 50 to 100% of modern Antarctic size. That would require surface-melt driven retreat of some terrestrial East Antarctic ice, despite the hysteresis issue raised above. A recent study using a coupled climate-ice sheet model found that with a finer climate gridand more frequent coupling exchange, substantial retreat of terrestrial Antarctica can occur with 500 to 840 ppmv CO2, much lower than in earlier models. This will allow meaningful interactions between modeling and deeper-time geologic interpretations since the late Oligocene.

Evaluating the Dominant Components of Warming in Pliocene Climate Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, D. J.; Haywood, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.; Hunter, S. J.; Bragg, F. J.; Contoux, C.; Stepanek, C.; Sohl, L.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Chan, W.-L.;

Radiative efficiencies for fluorinated esters: indirect global warming potentials of hydrofluoroethers.

PubMed

Bravo, Iván; Díaz-de-Mera, Yolanda; Aranda, Alfonso; Moreno, Elena; Nutt, David R; Marston, George

2011-10-14

Density Functional Theory (DFT) has been used with an empirically-derived correction for the wavenumbers of vibrational band positions to predict the infrared spectra of several fluorinated esters (FESs). Radiative efficiencies (REs) were then determined using the method of Pinnock et al. and these were used with atmospheric lifetimes from the literature to determine the direct global warming potentials of FESs. FESs, in particular fluoroalkylacetates, alkylfluoroacetates and fluoroalkylformates, are potential greenhouse gases and their likely long atmospheric lifetimes and relatively large REs, compared to their parent HFEs, make them active contributors to global warming. Here, we use the concept of indirect global warming potential (indirect GWP) to assess the contribution to the warming of several commonly used HFEs emitted from the Earth's surface, explicitly taking into account that these HFEs will be converted into the corresponding FESs in the troposphere. The indirect GWP can be calculated using the radiative efficiencies and lifetimes of the HFE and its degradation FES products. We found that the GWPs of those studied HFEs which have the smallest direct GWP can be increased by 100-1600% when taking account of the cumulative effect due to the secondary FESs formed during HFE atmospheric oxidation. This effect may be particularly important for non-segregated HFEs and some segregated HFEs, which may contribute significantly more to global warming than can be concluded from examination of their direct GWPs.

Intense Convective Activity Over Northern Bay of Bengal during Late Southwest Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathew, S.; Venkatesan, R.; Natesan, U.; G, L.

2016-02-01

Warming of the northern Bay of Bengal during late southwest monsoon was very much influenced by the intensity of freshening by river discharges. The inter-annual variability of freshening and associated warming was analyzed for 2011 to 2015, with the help of in-situ data obtained from the moored buoys deployed at specific locations in northern Bay of Bengal. The shoaling of mixed layer depth associated with the advection of freshwaters has favored intense warming and supported convective activity thereby. The year 2011 recorded highest freshening with salinity touched as low as 21.3 p.s.u.; with the heavy river discharges, resulted from intense rainfall over catchment areas of rivers that discharged into the bay, due to positive Indian Ocean Dipole and La-Nina affect. It has resulted in intense warming of the surface temperature by 2°C, which persisted for nearly three weeks. The year 2014 was least fresh, with no signature of freshening and associated warming. The latent heat flux term computed from the moored buoy using the COARE 3.5 algorithm showed increased loss of latent heat flux during the late monsoon associated with the warming. It directly supported increased convective activity and delayed the withdrawal of monsoon activity from Indian sub-continent. Two depressions with intense convective activity formed over bay during September of 2011 which delayed the withdrawal of monsoon by three weeks.

The influence of global warming on natural disasters and their public health outcomes.

PubMed

Diaz, James H

2007-01-01

With a documented increase in average global surface temperatures of 0.6 degrees C since 1975, Earth now appears to be warming due to a variety of climatic effects, most notably the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities. There remains, however, no universal agreement on how rapidly, regionally, or asymmetrically the planet will warm or on the true impact of global warming on natural disasters and public health outcomes. Most reports to date of the public health impact of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on the increase in heat-stroke deaths following heat waves and on outbreaks of airborne and arthropod-borne diseases following tropical rains and flooding that resulted from fluctuations in ocean temperatures. The effects of global warming on rainfall and drought, tropical cyclone and tsunami activity, and tectonic and volcanic activity will have far-reaching public health effects not only on environmentally associated disease outbreaks but also on global food supplies and population movements. As a result of these and other recognized associations between climate change and public health consequences, many of which have been confounded by deficiencies in public health infrastructure and scientific debates over whether climate changes are spawned by atmospheric cycles or anthropogenic influences, the active responses to progressive climate change must include combinations of economic, environmental, legal, regulatory, and, most importantly, public health measures.

Understanding the Asian summer monsoon response to greenhouse warming: the relative roles of direct radiative forcing and sea surface temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaoqiong; Ting, Mingfang

2017-10-01

Future hydroclimate projections from state-of-the-art climate models show large uncertainty and model spread, particularly in the tropics and over the monsoon regions. The precipitation and circulation responses to rising greenhouse gases involve a fast component associated with direct radiative forcing and a slow component associated with sea surface temperature (SST) warming; the relative importance of the two may contribute to model discrepancies. In this study, regional hydroclimate responses to greenhouse warming are assessed using output from coupled general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) and idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project. The thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms causing the rainfall changes are examined using moisture budget analysis. Results show that direct radiative forcing and SST change exert significantly different responses both over land and ocean. For most part of the Asian monsoon region, the summertime rainfall changes are dominated by the direct CO2 radiative effect through enhanced monsoon circulation. The response to SST warming shows a larger model spread compared to direct radiative forcing, possibly due to the cancellation between the thermodynamical and dynamical components. While the thermodynamical response of the Asian monsoon is robust across the models, there is a lack of consensus for the dynamical response among the models and weak multi-model mean responses in the CMIP5 ensemble, which may be related to the multiple physical processes evolving on different time scales.

Variability in modeled cloud feedback tied to differences in the climatological spatial pattern of clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siler, Nicholas; Po-Chedley, Stephen; Bretherton, Christopher S.

2018-02-01

Despite the increasing sophistication of climate models, the amount of surface warming expected from a doubling of atmospheric CO_2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity) remains stubbornly uncertain, in part because of differences in how models simulate the change in global albedo due to clouds (the shortwave cloud feedback). Here, model differences in the shortwave cloud feedback are found to be closely related to the spatial pattern of the cloud contribution to albedo (α) in simulations of the current climate: high-feedback models exhibit lower (higher) α in regions of warm (cool) sea-surface temperatures, and therefore predict a larger reduction in global-mean α as temperatures rise and warm regions expand. The spatial pattern of α is found to be strongly predictive (r=0.84) of a model's global cloud feedback, with satellite observations indicating a most-likely value of 0.58± 0.31 Wm^{-2} K^{-1} (90% confidence). This estimate is higher than the model-average cloud feedback of 0.43 Wm^{-2} K^{-1}, with half the range of uncertainty. The observational constraint on climate sensitivity is weaker but still significant, suggesting a likely value of 3.68 ± 1.30 K (90% confidence), which also favors the upper range of model estimates. These results suggest that uncertainty in model estimates of the global cloud feedback may be substantially reduced by ensuring a realistic distribution of clouds between regions of warm and cool SSTs in simulations of the current climate.

Impact of the GeoMIP G1 sunshade geoengineering experiment on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Yu; Moore, John C.; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Ji, Duoying; Phipps, Steven J.; Lenton, Andrew; Tilmes, Simone; Watanabe, Shingo; Zhao, Liyun

2017-03-01

We analyze the multi-earth system model responses of ocean temperatures and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under an idealized solar radiation management scenario (G1) from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. All models simulate warming of the northern North Atlantic relative to no geoengineering, despite geoengineering substantially offsetting the increases in mean global ocean temperatures. Increases in the temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean at the surface (˜0.25 K) and at a depth of 500 m (˜0.10 K) are mainly due to a 10 Wm-2 reduction of total heat flux from ocean to atmosphere. Although the AMOC is slightly reduced under the solar dimming scenario, G1, relative to piControl, it is about 37% stronger than under abrupt4 × CO2 . The reduction of the AMOC under G1 is mainly a response to the heat flux change at the northern North Atlantic rather than to changes in the water flux and the wind stress. The AMOC transfers heat from tropics to high latitudes, helping to warm the high latitudes, and its strength is maintained under solar dimming rather than weakened by greenhouse gas forcing acting alone. Hence the relative reduction in high latitude ocean temperatures provided by solar radiation geoengineering, would tend to be counteracted by the correspondingly active AMOC circulation which furthermore transports warm surface waters towards the Greenland ice sheet, warming Arctic sea ice and permafrost.

Decadal trends in Red Sea maximum surface temperature.

PubMed

Chaidez, V; Dreano, D; Agusti, S; Duarte, C M; Hoteit, I

2017-08-15

Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C decade -1 over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6 - 2.0 °C before the end of the century 1 . However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea's thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982 - 2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C decade -1 , while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C decade -1 , all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.

Response of the global climate to changes in atmospheric chemical composition due to fossil fuel burning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hameed, S.; Cess, R. D.; Hogan, J. S.

1980-01-01

Recent modeling of atmospheric chemical processes (Logan et al, 1978; Hameed et al, 1979) suggests that tropospheric ozone and methane might significantly increase in the future as the result of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO(x), and CH4 due to fossil fuel burning. Since O3 and CH4 are both greenhouse gases, increases in their concentrations could augment global warming due to larger future amounts of atmospheric CO2. To test the possible climatic impact of changes in tropospheric chemical composition, a zonal energy-balance climate model has been combined with a vertically averaged tropospheric chemical model. The latter model includes all relevant chemical reactions which affect species derived from H2O, O2, CH4, and NO(x). The climate model correspondingly incorporates changes in the infrared heating of the surface-troposphere system resulting from chemically induced changes in tropospheric ozone and methane. This coupled climate-chemical model indicates that global climate is sensitive to changes in emissions of CO, NO(x) and CH4, and that future increases in these emissions could augment global warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2.

Stable near-surface ocean salinity stratifications due to evaporation observed during STRASSE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asher, William E.; Jessup, Andrew T.; Clark, Dan

2014-05-01

Under conditions with a large solar flux and low wind speed, a stably stratified warm layer forms at the ocean surface. Evaporation can then lead to an increase in salinity in the warm layer. A large temperature gradient will decrease density enough to counter the density increase caused by the salinity increase, forming a stable positive salinity anomaly at the surface. If these positive salinity anomalies are large in terms of the change in salinity from surface to the base of the gradient, if their areal coverage is a significant fraction of the satellite footprint, and if they persist long enough to be in the satellite field of view, they could be relevant for calibration and validation of L-band microwave salinity measurements. A towed, surface-following profiler was deployed from the N/O Thalassa during the Subtropical Atlantic Surface Salinity Experiment (STRASSE). The profiler measured temperature and conductivity in the surface ocean at depths of 10, 50, and 100 cm. The measurements show that positive salinity anomalies are common at the ocean surface for wind speeds less than 4 m s-1 when the average daily insolation is >300 W m-2 and the sea-to-air latent heat flux is greater than zero. A semiempirical model predicts the observed dependence of measured anomalies on environmental conditions. However, the model results and the field data suggest that these ocean surface salinity anomalies are not large enough in terms of the salinity difference to significantly affect microwave radiometric measurements of salinity.

A comparison of Argo nominal surface and near-surface temperature for validation of AMSR-E SST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zenghong; Chen, Xingrong; Sun, Chaohui; Wu, Xiaofen; Lu, Shaolei

2017-05-01

Satellite SST (sea surface temperature) from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) is compared with in situ temperature observations from Argo profiling floats over the global oceans to evaluate the advantages of Argo NST (near-surface temperature: water temperature less than 1 m from the surface). By comparing Argo nominal surface temperature ( 5 m) with its NST, a diurnal cycle caused by daytime warming and nighttime cooling was found, along with a maximum warming of 0.08±0.36°C during 14:00-15:00 local time. Further comparisons between Argo 5-m temperature/Argo NST and AMSR-E SST retrievals related to wind speed, columnar water vapor, and columnar cloud water indicate warming biases at low wind speed (<5 m/s) and columnar water vapor >28 mm during daytime. The warming tendency is more remarkable for AMSR-E SST/Argo 5-m temperature compared with AMSR-E SST/Argo NST, owing to the effect of diurnal warming. This effect of diurnal warming events should be excluded before validation for microwave SST retrievals. Both AMSR-E nighttime SST/Argo 5-m temperature and nighttime SST/Argo NST show generally good agreement, independent of wind speed and columnar water vapor. From our analysis, Argo NST data demonstrated their advantages for validation of satellite-retrieved SST.

Plants, birds and butterflies: short-term responses of species communities to climate warming vary by taxon and with altitude.

PubMed

Roth, Tobias; Plattner, Matthias; Amrhein, Valentin

2014-01-01

As a consequence of climate warming, species usually shift their distribution towards higher latitudes or altitudes. Yet, it is unclear how different taxonomic groups may respond to climate warming over larger altitudinal ranges. Here, we used data from the national biodiversity monitoring program of Switzerland, collected over an altitudinal range of 2500 m. Within the short period of eight years (2003-2010), we found significant shifts in communities of vascular plants, butterflies and birds. At low altitudes, communities of all species groups changed towards warm-dwelling species, corresponding to an average uphill shift of 8 m, 38 m and 42 m in plant, butterfly and bird communities, respectively. However, rates of community changes decreased with altitude in plants and butterflies, while bird communities changed towards warm-dwelling species at all altitudes. We found no decrease in community variation with respect to temperature niches of species, suggesting that climate warming has not led to more homogenous communities. The different community changes depending on altitude could not be explained by different changes of air temperatures, since during the 16 years between 1995 and 2010, summer temperatures in Switzerland rose by about 0.07°C per year at all altitudes. We discuss that land-use changes or increased disturbances may have prevented alpine plant and butterfly communities from changing towards warm-dwelling species. However, the findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that unlike birds, many alpine plant species in a warming climate could find suitable habitats within just a few metres, due to the highly varied surface of alpine landscapes. Our results may thus support the idea that for plants and butterflies and on a short temporal scale, alpine landscapes are safer places than lowlands in a warming world.

Plants, Birds and Butterflies: Short-Term Responses of Species Communities to Climate Warming Vary by Taxon and with Altitude

PubMed Central

Roth, Tobias; Plattner, Matthias; Amrhein, Valentin

2014-01-01

As a consequence of climate warming, species usually shift their distribution towards higher latitudes or altitudes. Yet, it is unclear how different taxonomic groups may respond to climate warming over larger altitudinal ranges. Here, we used data from the national biodiversity monitoring program of Switzerland, collected over an altitudinal range of 2500 m. Within the short period of eight years (2003–2010), we found significant shifts in communities of vascular plants, butterflies and birds. At low altitudes, communities of all species groups changed towards warm-dwelling species, corresponding to an average uphill shift of 8 m, 38 m and 42 m in plant, butterfly and bird communities, respectively. However, rates of community changes decreased with altitude in plants and butterflies, while bird communities changed towards warm-dwelling species at all altitudes. We found no decrease in community variation with respect to temperature niches of species, suggesting that climate warming has not led to more homogenous communities. The different community changes depending on altitude could not be explained by different changes of air temperatures, since during the 16 years between 1995 and 2010, summer temperatures in Switzerland rose by about 0.07°C per year at all altitudes. We discuss that land-use changes or increased disturbances may have prevented alpine plant and butterfly communities from changing towards warm-dwelling species. However, the findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that unlike birds, many alpine plant species in a warming climate could find suitable habitats within just a few metres, due to the highly varied surface of alpine landscapes. Our results may thus support the idea that for plants and butterflies and on a short temporal scale, alpine landscapes are safer places than lowlands in a warming world. PMID:24416144

Radiative forcing over the conterminous United States due to contemporary land cover land use change and sensitivity to snow and interannual albedo variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnes, Christopher A.; Roy, David P.

2010-01-01

Satellite-derived land cover land use (LCLU), snow and albedo data, and incoming surface solar radiation reanalysis data were used to study the impact of LCLU change from 1973 to 2000 on surface albedo and radiative forcing for 58 ecoregions covering 69% of the conterminous United States. A net positive surface radiative forcing (i.e., warming) of 0.029 Wm−2 due to LCLU albedo change from 1973 to 2000 was estimated. The forcings for individual ecoregions were similar in magnitude to current global forcing estimates, with the most negative forcing (as low as −0.367 Wm−2) due to the transition to forest and the most positive forcing (up to 0.337 Wm−2) due to the conversion to grass/shrub. Snow exacerbated both negative and positive forcing for LCLU transitions between snow-hiding and snow-revealing LCLU classes. The surface radiative forcing estimates were highly sensitive to snow-free interannual albedo variability that had a percent average monthly variation from 1.6% to 4.3% across the ecoregions. The results described in this paper enhance our understanding of contemporary LCLU change on surface radiative forcing and suggest that future forcing estimates should model snow and interannual albedo variation.

Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Po-Chedley, Stephen; Armour, Kyle C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.

Sources of intermodel differences in the global lapse rate (LR) and water vapor (WV) feedbacks are assessed using CO 2 forcing simulations from 28 general circulation models. Tropical surface warming leads to significant warming and moistening in the tropical and extratropical upper troposphere, signifying a nonlocal, tropical influence on extratropical radiation and feedbacks. Model spread in the locally defined LR and WV feedbacks is pronounced in the Southern Ocean because of large-scale ocean upwelling, which reduces surface warming and decouples the surface from the tropospheric response. The magnitude of local extratropical feedbacks across models and over time is well characterizedmore » using the ratio of tropical to extratropical surface warming. It is shown that model differences in locally defined LR and WV feedbacks, particularly over the southern extratropics, drive model variability in the global feedbacks. The cross-model correlation between the global LR and WV feedbacks therefore does not arise from their covariation in the tropics, but rather from the pattern of warming exerting a common control on extratropical feedback responses. Because local feedbacks over the Southern Hemisphere are an important contributor to the global feedback, the partitioning of surface warming between the tropics and the southern extratropics is a key determinant of the spread in the global LR and WV feedbacks. It is also shown that model Antarctic sea ice climatology influences sea ice area changes and southern extratropical surface warming. In conclusion, as a result, model discrepancies in climatological Antarctic sea ice area have a significant impact on the intermodel spread of the global LR and WV feedbacks.« less

Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks

DOE PAGES

Po-Chedley, Stephen; Armour, Kyle C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; ...

2018-03-23

Sources of intermodel differences in the global lapse rate (LR) and water vapor (WV) feedbacks are assessed using CO 2 forcing simulations from 28 general circulation models. Tropical surface warming leads to significant warming and moistening in the tropical and extratropical upper troposphere, signifying a nonlocal, tropical influence on extratropical radiation and feedbacks. Model spread in the locally defined LR and WV feedbacks is pronounced in the Southern Ocean because of large-scale ocean upwelling, which reduces surface warming and decouples the surface from the tropospheric response. The magnitude of local extratropical feedbacks across models and over time is well characterizedmore » using the ratio of tropical to extratropical surface warming. It is shown that model differences in locally defined LR and WV feedbacks, particularly over the southern extratropics, drive model variability in the global feedbacks. The cross-model correlation between the global LR and WV feedbacks therefore does not arise from their covariation in the tropics, but rather from the pattern of warming exerting a common control on extratropical feedback responses. Because local feedbacks over the Southern Hemisphere are an important contributor to the global feedback, the partitioning of surface warming between the tropics and the southern extratropics is a key determinant of the spread in the global LR and WV feedbacks. It is also shown that model Antarctic sea ice climatology influences sea ice area changes and southern extratropical surface warming. In conclusion, as a result, model discrepancies in climatological Antarctic sea ice area have a significant impact on the intermodel spread of the global LR and WV feedbacks.« less

Does the climate warming hiatus exist over the Tibetan Plateau?

PubMed Central

Duan, Anmin; Xiao, Zhixiang

2015-01-01

The surface air temperature change over the Tibetan Plateau is determined based on historical observations from 1980 to 2013. In contrast to the cooling trend in the rest of China, and the global warming hiatus post-1990s, an accelerated warming trend has appeared over the Tibetan Plateau during 1998–2013 (0.25 °C decade−1), compared with that during 1980–1997 (0.21 °C decade−1). Further results indicate that, to some degree, such an accelerated warming trend might be attributable to cloud–radiation feedback. The increased nocturnal cloud over the northern Tibetan Plateau would warm the nighttime temperature via enhanced atmospheric back-radiation, while the decreased daytime cloud over the southern Tibetan Plateau would induce the daytime sunshine duration to increase, resulting in surface air temperature warming. Meanwhile, the in situ surface wind speed has recovered gradually since 1998, and thus the energy concentration cannot explain the accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau after the 1990s. It is suggested that cloud–radiation feedback may play an important role in modulating the recent accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau. PMID:26329678

Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Chang-Eui; Jeong, Su-Jong; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Park, Hoonyoung; Piao, Shilong; Kim, Jinwon; Feng, Song

2017-09-01

Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961-2010. Before the early 1980s (1961-1983), change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984-2010), the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

The formation processes of phytoplankton growth and decline in mesoscale eddies in the western North Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Yu-Lin; Miyazawa, Yasumasa; Oey, Lie-Yauw; Kodaira, Tsubasa; Huang, Shihming

2017-05-01

In this study, we investigate the processes of phytoplankton growth and decline in mesoscale eddies in the western North Pacific Ocean based on the in situ chlorophyll data obtained from 52 cruises conducted by the Japan Meteorological Agency together with idealized numerical simulations. Both the observation and model results suggest that chlorophyll/phytoplankton concentrations are higher in cold than in warm eddies in near-surface water (z > -70 m). In the idealized simulation, the isopycnal movements associated with upwelling/downwelling transport phytoplankton and nutrients to different vertical depths during eddy formation (stage A). Phytoplankton and nutrients in cold eddies is transported toward shallower waters while those in warm eddies move toward deeper waters. In the period after the eddy has formed (stage B), sunlight and initially upwelled nutrients together promote the growth of phytoplankton in cold eddies. Phytoplankton in warm eddies decays due to insufficient sunlight in deeper waters. In stage B, upwelling and downwelling coexist in both warm and cold eddies, contributing nearly equally to vertical displacement. The upwelling/downwelling-induced nitrate flux accounts for a small percentage (˜3%) of the total nitrate flux in stage B. The vertical velocity caused by propagating eddies, therefore, is not the primary factor causing differences in phytoplankton concentrations between stage-B warm and cold eddies.

Global observation-based diagnosis of soil moisture control on land surface flux partition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallego-Elvira, Belen; Taylor, Christopher M.; Harris, Phil P.; Ghent, Darren; Veal, Karen L.; Folwell, Sonja S.

2016-04-01

Soil moisture plays a central role in the partition of available energy at the land surface between sensible and latent heat flux to the atmosphere. As soils dry out, evapotranspiration becomes water-limited ("stressed"), and both land surface temperature (LST) and sensible heat flux rise as a result. This change in surface behaviour during dry spells directly affects critical processes in both the land and the atmosphere. Soil water deficits are often a precursor in heat waves, and they control where feedbacks on precipitation become significant. State-of-the-art global climate model (GCM) simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) disagree on where and how strongly the surface energy budget is limited by soil moisture. Evaluation of GCM simulations at global scale is still a major challenge owing to the scarcity and uncertainty of observational datasets of land surface fluxes and soil moisture at the appropriate scale. Earth observation offers the potential to test how well GCM land schemes simulate hydrological controls on surface fluxes. In particular, satellite observations of LST provide indirect information about the surface energy partition at 1km resolution globally. Here, we present a potentially powerful methodology to evaluate soil moisture stress on surface fluxes within GCMs. Our diagnostic, Relative Warming Rate (RWR), is a measure of how rapidly the land warms relative to the overlying atmosphere during dry spells lasting at least 10 days. Under clear skies, this is a proxy for the change in sensible heat flux as soil dries out. We derived RWR from MODIS Terra and Aqua LST observations, meteorological re-analyses and satellite rainfall datasets. Globally we found that on average, the land warmed up during dry spells for 97% of the observed surface between 60S and 60N. For 73% of the area, the land warmed faster than the atmosphere (positive RWR), indicating water stressed conditions and increases in sensible heat flux. Higher RWRs were observed for shorter vegetation and bare soil compared to tall, deep-rooted vegetation due to differences in both aerodynamic and hydrological properties. The variation of RWR with antecedent rainfall provides information on which evaporation regime a particular region lies in climatologically. Different drying stages for a given antecedent rainfall can thus be observed depending on land cover type. For instance, our results suggest that forests in a continental climate remain unstressed during a 10 day dry spell provided the previous month saw at least 95 mm of rain. Conversely, RWR values indicate that under similar conditions regions of grass/crop cover are water-stressed.

Impact of fire on global land surface air temperature and energy budget for the 20th century due to changes within ecosystems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Fang; Lawrence, David M.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

Fire is a global phenomenon and tightly interacts with the biosphere and climate. This study provides the first quantitative assessment of fire’s influence on the global land air temperature during the 20th century through its impact on terrestrial ecosystems. We quantify the impact of fire by comparing 20th century fire-on and fire-off simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) as the model platform. Here, results show that fire-induced changes in terrestrial ecosystems increased global land surface air temperature by 0.04 °C. Such changes significantly warmed the tropical savannas and southern Asia mainly by reducing latent heat flux, but cooledmore » Southeast China by enhancing the East Asian winter monsoon. 20% of the early 20th century global land warming can be attributed to fire-induced changes in terrestrial ecosystems, providing a new mechanism for explaining the poorly-understood climate change.« less

Impact of fire on global land surface air temperature and energy budget for the 20th century due to changes within ecosystems

DOE PAGES

Li, Fang; Lawrence, David M.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

2017-04-03

Fire is a global phenomenon and tightly interacts with the biosphere and climate. This study provides the first quantitative assessment of fire’s influence on the global land air temperature during the 20th century through its impact on terrestrial ecosystems. We quantify the impact of fire by comparing 20th century fire-on and fire-off simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) as the model platform. Here, results show that fire-induced changes in terrestrial ecosystems increased global land surface air temperature by 0.04 °C. Such changes significantly warmed the tropical savannas and southern Asia mainly by reducing latent heat flux, but cooledmore » Southeast China by enhancing the East Asian winter monsoon. 20% of the early 20th century global land warming can be attributed to fire-induced changes in terrestrial ecosystems, providing a new mechanism for explaining the poorly-understood climate change.« less

Permafrost carbon—climate feedback is sensitive to deep soil carbon decomposability but not deep soil nitrogen dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koven, Charles D.; Lawrence, David M.; Riley, William J.

Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon whose stability is contingent on remaining frozen. With future warming, these soils may release carbon to the atmosphere and act as a positive feedback to climate change. Significant uncertainty remains on the postthaw carbon dynamics of permafrost-affected ecosystems, in particular since most of the carbon resides at depth where decomposition dynamics may differ from surface soils, and since nitrogen mineralized by decomposition may enhance plant growth. Here we show, using a carbon–nitrogen model that includes permafrost processes forced in an unmitigated warming scenario, that the future carbon balance of the permafrost regionmore » is highly sensitive to the decomposability of deeper carbon, with the net balance ranging from 21 Pg C to 164 Pg C losses by 2300. Increased soil nitrogen mineralization reduces nutrient limitations, but the impact of deep nitrogen on the carbon budget is small due to enhanced nitrogen availability from warming surface soils and seasonal asynchrony between deeper nitrogen availability and plant nitrogen demands. The future carbon balance of this region is projected to hinge more on the rate and extent of permafrost thaw and soil decomposition than on enhanced nitrogen availability for vegetation growth resulting from permafrost thaw.« less

Permafrost carbon—climate feedback is sensitive to deep soil carbon decomposability but not deep soil nitrogen dynamics

DOE PAGES

Koven, Charles D.; Lawrence, David M.; Riley, William J.

2015-03-09

Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon whose stability is contingent on remaining frozen. With future warming, these soils may release carbon to the atmosphere and act as a positive feedback to climate change. Significant uncertainty remains on the postthaw carbon dynamics of permafrost-affected ecosystems, in particular since most of the carbon resides at depth where decomposition dynamics may differ from surface soils, and since nitrogen mineralized by decomposition may enhance plant growth. Here we show, using a carbon–nitrogen model that includes permafrost processes forced in an unmitigated warming scenario, that the future carbon balance of the permafrost regionmore » is highly sensitive to the decomposability of deeper carbon, with the net balance ranging from 21 Pg C to 164 Pg C losses by 2300. Increased soil nitrogen mineralization reduces nutrient limitations, but the impact of deep nitrogen on the carbon budget is small due to enhanced nitrogen availability from warming surface soils and seasonal asynchrony between deeper nitrogen availability and plant nitrogen demands. The future carbon balance of this region is projected to hinge more on the rate and extent of permafrost thaw and soil decomposition than on enhanced nitrogen availability for vegetation growth resulting from permafrost thaw.« less

Effect of Recent Sea Surface Temperature Trends on the Arctic Stratospheric Vortex

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Oman, Luke; Hurwitz, Margaret

2015-01-01

The springtime Arctic polar vortex has cooled significantly over the satellite era, with consequences for ozone concentrations in the springtime transition season. The causes of this cooling trend are deduced by using comprehensive chemistry-climate model experiments. Approximately half of the satellite era early springtime cooling trend in the Arctic lower stratosphere was caused by changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). An ensemble of experiments forced only by changing SSTs is compared to an ensemble of experiments in which both the observed SSTs and chemically- and radiatively-active trace species are changing. By comparing the two ensembles, it is shown that warming of Indian Ocean, North Pacific, and North Atlantic SSTs, and cooling of the tropical Pacific, have strongly contributed to recent polar stratospheric cooling in late winter and early spring, and to a weak polar stratospheric warming in early winter. When concentrations of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases are fixed, polar ozone concentrations show a small but robust decline due to changing SSTs. Ozone changes are magnified in the presence of changing gas concentrations. The stratospheric changes can be understood by examining the tropospheric height and heat flux anomalies generated by the anomalous SSTs. Finally, recent SST changes have contributed to a decrease in the frequency of late winter stratospheric sudden warmings.

Simulated climate effects of desert irrigation geoengineering.

PubMed

Cheng, Wei; Moore, John C; Cao, Long; Ji, Duoying; Zhao, Liyun

2017-04-18

Geoengineering, the deliberate large-scale manipulation of earth's energy balance to counteract global warming, is an attractive proposition for sparsely populated deserts. We use the BNU and UVic Earth system models to simulate the effects of irrigating deserts under the RCP8.5 scenario. Previous studies focused on increasing desert albedo to reduce global warming; in contrast we examine how extending afforestation and ecological projects, that successfully improve regional environments, fair for geoengineering purposes. As expected desert irrigation allows vegetation to grow, with bare soil or grass gradually becoming shrub or tree covered, with increases in terrestrial carbon storage of 90.3 Pg C (UVic-ESCM) - 143.9 Pg C (BNU-ESM). Irrigating global deserts makes the land surface temperature decrease by 0.48 °C and land precipitation increase by 100 mm yr -1 . In the irrigated areas, BNU-ESM simulates significant cooling of up to 4.2 °C owing to the increases in low cloud and latent heat which counteract the warming effect due to decreased surface albedo. Large volumes of water would be required to maintain global desert irrigation, equivalent 10 mm/year of global sea level (BNU-ESM) compensate for evapotranspiration losses. Differences in climate responses between the deserts prompt research into tailored albedo-irrigation schemes.

Simulated climate effects of desert irrigation geoengineering

PubMed Central

Cheng, Wei; Moore, John C.; Cao, Long; Ji, Duoying; Zhao, Liyun

2017-01-01

Geoengineering, the deliberate large-scale manipulation of earth’s energy balance to counteract global warming, is an attractive proposition for sparsely populated deserts. We use the BNU and UVic Earth system models to simulate the effects of irrigating deserts under the RCP8.5 scenario. Previous studies focused on increasing desert albedo to reduce global warming; in contrast we examine how extending afforestation and ecological projects, that successfully improve regional environments, fair for geoengineering purposes. As expected desert irrigation allows vegetation to grow, with bare soil or grass gradually becoming shrub or tree covered, with increases in terrestrial carbon storage of 90.3 Pg C (UVic-ESCM) – 143.9 Pg C (BNU-ESM). Irrigating global deserts makes the land surface temperature decrease by 0.48 °C and land precipitation increase by 100 mm yr−1. In the irrigated areas, BNU-ESM simulates significant cooling of up to 4.2 °C owing to the increases in low cloud and latent heat which counteract the warming effect due to decreased surface albedo. Large volumes of water would be required to maintain global desert irrigation, equivalent 10 mm/year of global sea level (BNU-ESM) compensate for evapotranspiration losses. Differences in climate responses between the deserts prompt research into tailored albedo-irrigation schemes. PMID:28418005

Permafrost carbon−climate feedback is sensitive to deep soil carbon decomposability but not deep soil nitrogen dynamics

PubMed Central

Koven, Charles D.; Lawrence, David M.; Riley, William J.

2015-01-01

Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon whose stability is contingent on remaining frozen. With future warming, these soils may release carbon to the atmosphere and act as a positive feedback to climate change. Significant uncertainty remains on the postthaw carbon dynamics of permafrost-affected ecosystems, in particular since most of the carbon resides at depth where decomposition dynamics may differ from surface soils, and since nitrogen mineralized by decomposition may enhance plant growth. Here we show, using a carbon−nitrogen model that includes permafrost processes forced in an unmitigated warming scenario, that the future carbon balance of the permafrost region is highly sensitive to the decomposability of deeper carbon, with the net balance ranging from 21 Pg C to 164 Pg C losses by 2300. Increased soil nitrogen mineralization reduces nutrient limitations, but the impact of deep nitrogen on the carbon budget is small due to enhanced nitrogen availability from warming surface soils and seasonal asynchrony between deeper nitrogen availability and plant nitrogen demands. Although nitrogen dynamics are highly uncertain, the future carbon balance of this region is projected to hinge more on the rate and extent of permafrost thaw and soil decomposition than on enhanced nitrogen availability for vegetation growth resulting from permafrost thaw. PMID:25775603

Stratospheric Aerosols for Solar Radiation Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravitz, Ben

SRM in the context of this entry involves placing a large amount of aerosols in the stratosphere to reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface, thereby cooling the surface and counteracting some of the warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The way this is accomplished depends on the specific aerosol used, but the basic mechanism involves backscattering and absorbing certain amounts of solar radiation aloft. Since warming from greenhouse gases is due to longwave (thermal) emission, compensating for this warming by reduction of shortwave (solar) energy is inherently imperfect, meaning SRM will have climate effects that are different from the effects of climate change. This will likely manifest in the form of regional inequalities, in that, similarly to climate change, some regions will benefit from SRM, while some will be adversely affected, viewed both in the context of present climate and a climate with high CO2 concentrations. These effects are highly dependent upon the means of SRM, including the type of aerosol to be used, the particle size and other microphysical concerns, and the methods by which the aerosol is placed in the stratosphere. SRM has never been performed, nor has deployment been tested, so the research up to this point has serious gaps. The amount of aerosols required is large enough that SRM would require a major engineering endeavor, although SRM is potentially cheap enough that it could be conducted unilaterally. Methods of governance must be in place before deployment is attempted, should deployment even be desired. Research in public policy, ethics, and economics, as well as many other disciplines, will be essential to the decision-making process. SRM is only a palliative treatment for climate change, and it is best viewed as part of a portfolio of responses, including mitigation, adaptation, and possibly CDR. At most, SRM is insurance against dangerous consequences that are directly due to increased surface air temperatures.

Impacts of peatland forestation on regional climate conditions in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Yao; Markkanen, Tiina; Backman, Leif; Henttonen, Helena M.; Pietikäinen, Joni-Pekka; Laaksonen, Ari

2014-05-01

Climate response to anthropogenic land cover change happens more locally and occurs on a shorter time scale than the global warming due to increased GHGs. Over the second half of last Century, peatlands were vastly drained in Finland to stimulate forest growth for timber production. In this study, we investigate the biophysical effects of peatland forestation on near-surface climate conditions in Finland. For this, the regional climate model REMO, developed in Max Plank Institute (currently in Climate Service Center, Germany), provides an effective way. Two sets of 15-year climate simulations were done by REMO, using the historic (1920s; The 1st Finnish National Forest Inventory) and present-day (2000s; the 10th Finnish National Forest Inventory) land cover maps, respectively. The simulated surface air temperature and precipitation were then analyzed. In the most intensive peatland forestation area in Finland, the differences in monthly averaged daily mean surface air temperature show a warming effect around 0.2 to 0.3 K in February and March and reach to 0.5 K in April, whereas a slight cooling effect, less than 0.2 K, is found from May till October. Consequently, the selected snow clearance dates in model gridboxes over that area are advanced 0.5 to 4 days in the mean of 15 years. The monthly averaged precipitation only shows small differences, less than 10 mm/month, in a varied pattern in Finland from April to September. Furthermore, a more detailed analysis was conducted on the peatland forestation area with a 23% decrease in peatland and a 15% increase in forest types. 11 day running means of simulated temperature and energy balance terms, as well as snow depth were averaged over 15 years. Results show a positive feedback induced by peatland forestation between the surface air temperature and snow depth in snow melting period. This is because the warmer temperature caused by lower surface albedo due to more forest in snow cover period leads to a quicker and earlier snow melting. Meanwhile, surface albedo is reduced and consequently surface air temperature is increased. Additionally, the maximum difference from individual gridboxes in this area over 15 years of 11 day running means of daily mean surface air temperature reaches 2 K, which is four times as much as the maximum difference of 15-year regional average of that. This illustrates that the spring warming effect from peatland forestation in Finland is highly heterogeneous spatially and temporally.

Influence of sea ice cover and icebergs on circulation and water mass formation in a numerical circulation model of the Ross Sea, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinniman, Michael S.; Klinck, John M.; Smith, Walker O.

2007-11-01

Satellite imagery shows that there was substantial variability in the sea ice extent in the Ross Sea during 2001-2003. Much of this variability is thought to be due to several large icebergs that moved through the area during that period. The effects of these changes in sea ice on circulation and water mass distributions are investigated with a numerical general circulation model. It would be difficult to simulate the highly variable sea ice from 2001 to 2003 with a dynamic sea ice model since much of the variability was due to the floating icebergs. Here, sea ice concentration is specified from satellite observations. To examine the effects of changes in sea ice due to iceberg C-19, simulations were performed using either climatological ice concentrations or the observed ice for that period. The heat balance around the Ross Sea Polynya (RSP) shows that the dominant term in the surface heat budget is the net exchange with the atmosphere, but advection of oceanic warm water is also important. The area average annual basal melt rate beneath the Ross Ice Shelf is reduced by 12% in the observed sea ice simulation. The observed sea ice simulation also creates more High-Salinity Shelf Water. Another simulation was performed with observed sea ice and a fixed iceberg representing B-15A. There is reduced advection of warm surface water during summer from the RSP into McMurdo Sound due to B-15A, but a much stronger reduction is due to the late opening of the RSP in early 2003 because of C-19.

Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Reilly, Catherine; Sharma, Sapna; Gray, Derek; Hampton, Stephanie; Read, Jordan S.; Rowley, Rex J.; Schneider, Philipp; Lenters, John D.; McIntyre, Peter B.; Kraemer, Benjamin M.; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Straile, Dietmar; Dong, Bo; Adrian, Rita; Allan, Mathew G.; Anneville, Orlane; Arvola, Lauri; Austin, Jay; Bailey, John L.; Baron, Jill S.; Brookes, Justin D; de Eyto, Elvira; Dokulil, Martin T.; Hamilton, David P.; Havens, Karl; Hetherington, Amy L.; Higgins, Scott N.; Hook, Simon; Izmest'eva, Lyubov R.; Jöhnk, Klaus D.; Kangur, Külli; Kasprzak, Peter; Kumagai, Michio; Kuusisto, Esko; Leshkevich, George; Livingstone, David M.; MacIntyre, Sally; May, Linda; Melack, John M.; Mueller-Navara, Doerthe C.; Naumenko, Mikhail; Noges, Peeter; Noges, Tiina; North, Ryan P.; Plisnier, Pierre-Denis; Rigosi, Anna; Rimmer, Alon; Rogora, Michela; Rudstam, Lars G.; Rusak, James A.; Salmaso, Nico; Samal, Nihar R.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Schladow, Geoffrey; Schmid, Martin; Schmidt, Silke R.; Silow, Eugene A.; Soylu, M. Evren; Teubner, Katrin; Verburg, Piet; Voutilainen, Ari; Watkinson, Andrew; Williamson, Craig E.; Zhang, Guoqing

2015-01-01

In this first worldwide synthesis of in situ and satellite-derived lake data, we find that lake summer surface water temperatures rose rapidly (global mean = 0.34°C decade−1) between 1985 and 2009. Our analyses show that surface water warming rates are dependent on combinations of climate and local characteristics, rather than just lake location, leading to the counterintuitive result that regional consistency in lake warming is the exception, rather than the rule. The most rapidly warming lakes are widely geographically distributed, and their warming is associated with interactions among different climatic factors—from seasonally ice-covered lakes in areas where temperature and solar radiation are increasing while cloud cover is diminishing (0.72°C decade−1) to ice-free lakes experiencing increases in air temperature and solar radiation (0.53°C decade−1). The pervasive and rapid warming observed here signals the urgent need to incorporate climate impacts into vulnerability assessments and adaptation efforts for lakes.

Areas of Weakly Anomalous to Anomalous Surface Temperature in Chaffee County, Colorado, as Identified from ASTER Thermal Data

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

Note: This "Weakly Anomalous to Anomalous Surface Temperature" dataset differs from the "Anomalous Surface Temperature" dataset for this county (another remotely sensed CIRES product) by showing areas of modeled temperatures between 1o and 2o above the mean, as opposed to the greater than 2o temperatures contained in the "Anomalous Surface Temperature" dataset. This layer contains areas of anomalous surface temperature in Chaffee County identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled very warm surface exposures (thermal anomalies). Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Areas of Weakly Anomalous to Anomalous Surface Temperature in Garfield County, Colorado, as Identified from ASTER Thermal Data

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

Note: This "Weakly Anomalous to Anomalous Surface Temperature" dataset differs from the "Anomalous Surface Temperature" dataset for this county (another remotely sensed CIRES product) by showing areas of modeled temperatures between 1o and 2o above the mean, as opposed to the greater than 2o temperatures contained in the "Anomalous Surface Temperature" dataset. This layer contains areas of anomalous surface temperature in Garfield County identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled warm surface exposures (thermal anomalies) Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Areas of Weakly Anomalous to Anomalous Surface Temperature in Routt County, Colorado, as Identified from ASTER Thermal Data

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

Note: This "Weakly Anomalous to Anomalous Surface Temperature" dataset differs from the "Anomalous Surface Temperature" dataset for this county (another remotely sensed CIRES product) by showing areas of modeled temperatures between 1o and 2o above the mean, as opposed to the greater than 2o temperatures contained in the "Anomalous Surface Temperature" dataset. This layer contains areas of anomalous surface temperature in Routt County identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled warm surface exposures (thermal anomalies). Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Areas of Weakly Anomalous to Anomalous Surface Temperature in Dolores County, Colorado, as Identified from ASTER Thermal Data

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

Note: This "Weakly Anomalous to Anomalous Surface Temperature" dataset differs from the "Anomalous Surface Temperature" dataset for this county (another remotely sensed CIRES product) by showing areas of modeled temperatures between 1o and 2o above the mean, as opposed to the greater than 2o temperatures contained in the "Anomalous Surface Temperature" dataset. This layer contains areas of anomalous surface temperature in Dolores County identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled very warm surface exposures (thermal anomalies) Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Areas of Weakly Anomalous to Anomalous Surface Temperature in Archuleta County, Colorado, as Identified from ASTER Thermal Data

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

Note: This "Weakly Anomalous to Anomalous Surface Temperature" dataset differs from the "Anomalous Surface Temperature" dataset for this county (another remotely sensed CIRES product) by showing areas of modeled temperatures between 1o and 2o above the mean, as opposed to the greater than 2o temperatures contained in the "Anomalous Surface Temperature" dataset. This layer contains areas of anomalous surface temperature in Archuleta County identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled warm surface exposures (thermal anomalies). Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Investigating the Impacts of Surface Temperature Anomalies due to Burned Area Albedo in Northern sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabbert, T.; Matsui, T.; Capehart, W. J.; Ichoku, C. M.; Gatebe, C. K.

2015-12-01

The northern Sub-Saharan African region (NSSA) is an area of intense focus due to periodic severe droughts that have dire consequences on the growing population, which relies mostly on rain fed agriculture for its food supply. This region's weather and hydrologic cycle are very complex and are dependent on the West African Monsoon. Different regional processes affect the West African Monsoon cycle and variability. One of the areas of current investigation is the water cycle response to the variability of land surface characteristics. Land surface characteristics are often altered in NSSA due to agricultural practices, grazing, and the fires that occur during the dry season. To better understand the effects of biomass burning on the hydrologic cycle of the sub-Saharan environment, an interdisciplinary team sponsored by NASA is analyzing potential feedback mechanisms due to the fires. As part of this research, this study focuses on the effects of land surface changes, particularly albedo and skin temperature, that are influenced by biomass burning. Surface temperature anomalies can influence the initiation of convective rainfall and surface albedo is linked to the absorption of solar radiation. To capture the effects of fire perturbations on the land surface, NASA's Unified Weather and Research Forecasting (NU-WRF) model coupled with NASA's Land Information System (LIS) is being used to simulate burned area surface albedo inducing surface temperature anomalies and other potential effects to environmental processes. Preliminary sensitivity results suggest an altered surface radiation budget, regional warming of the surface temperature, slight increase in average rainfall, and a change in precipitation locations.

Sea urchin development in a global change hotspot, potential for southerly migration of thermotolerant propagules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrne, M.; Selvakumaraswamy, P.; Ho, M. A.; Woolsey, E.; Nguyen, H. D.

2011-03-01

The distribution of the sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma coincides with the southeast Australia global change hot spot where marine ecosystems are warming significantly due to changes in ocean circulation. To address questions on future vulnerabilities, the thermotolerance of the planktonic life phase of H. erythrogramma was investigated in the climate and regionally relevant setting of projected near-future (2100) ocean warming. Experimental treatments ranged from 18 to 26 °C, with 26 °C representing +3-4 °C above recent ambient sea-surface temperatures. Developmental success across all stages (gastrula, 24 h; larva, 72 h; juvenile, 120 h) decreased with increasing temperature. Development was tolerant to a +1-2 °C increase above ambient, but significant deleterious effects were evident at +3-4 °C. However, larvae that developed through the early bottleneck of normal development at 26 °C metamorphosed successfully. The inverse relationship between temperature and planktonic larval duration (PLD) was seen in a 25% decrease in the PLD of H. erythrogramma at 24 and 26 oC. Ocean warming may be advantageous to a subset of larvae through early settlement and reduction of the vulnerable planktonic period. This positive effect of temperature may help buffer the negative effects of ocean warming. In parallel studies with progeny derived from northern (Coffs Harbour) and southern (Sydney) H. erythrogramma, northern embryos had significantly higher thermotolerance. This provides the possibility that H. erythrogramma populations might keep up with a warming world through poleward migration of thermotolerant propagules, facilitated by the strong southward flow of the East Australian Current. It is uncertain whether H. erythrogramma populations at the northern range of this species, with no source of immigrants, will have the capacity to persist in a warm ocean. Due to its extensive latitudinal distribution, its potential developmental thermotolerance and independence of its lecithotrophic larvae from exogenous food and the need to make a functional skeleton, H. erythrogramma may be particularly robust to ocean change.

Century-Long Warming Trends in the Upper Water Column of Lake Tanganyika.

PubMed

Kraemer, Benjamin M; Hook, Simon; Huttula, Timo; Kotilainen, Pekka; O'Reilly, Catherine M; Peltonen, Anu; Plisnier, Pierre-Denis; Sarvala, Jouko; Tamatamah, Rashid; Vadeboncoeur, Yvonne; Wehrli, Bernhard; McIntyre, Peter B

2015-01-01

Lake Tanganyika, the deepest and most voluminous lake in Africa, has warmed over the last century in response to climate change. Separate analyses of surface warming rates estimated from in situ instruments, satellites, and a paleolimnological temperature proxy (TEX86) disagree, leaving uncertainty about the thermal sensitivity of Lake Tanganyika to climate change. Here, we use a comprehensive database of in situ temperature data from the top 100 meters of the water column that span the lake's seasonal range and lateral extent to demonstrate that long-term temperature trends in Lake Tanganyika depend strongly on depth, season, and latitude. The observed spatiotemporal variation in surface warming rates accounts for small differences between warming rate estimates from in situ instruments and satellite data. However, after accounting for spatiotemporal variation in temperature and warming rates, the TEX86 paleolimnological proxy yields lower surface temperatures (1.46 °C lower on average) and faster warming rates (by a factor of three) than in situ measurements. Based on the ecology of Thaumarchaeota (the microbes whose biomolecules are involved with generating the TEX86 proxy), we offer a reinterpretation of the TEX86 data from Lake Tanganyika as the temperature of the low-oxygen zone, rather than of the lake surface temperature as has been suggested previously. Our analyses provide a thorough accounting of spatiotemporal variation in warming rates, offering strong evidence that thermal and ecological shifts observed in this massive tropical lake over the last century are robust and in step with global climate change.

Vulnerability of polar oceans to anthropogenic acidification: comparison of arctic and antarctic seasonal cycles.

PubMed

Shadwick, E H; Trull, T W; Thomas, H; Gibson, J A E

2013-01-01

Polar oceans are chemically sensitive to anthropogenic acidification due to their relatively low alkalinity and correspondingly weak carbonate buffering capacity. Here, we compare unique CO2 system observations covering complete annual cycles at an Arctic (Amundsen Gulf) and Antarctic site (Prydz Bay). The Arctic site experiences greater seasonal warming (10 vs 3°C), and freshening (3 vs 2), has lower alkalinity (2220 vs 2320 μmol/kg), and lower summer pH (8.15 vs 8.5), than the Antarctic site. Despite a larger uptake of inorganic carbon by summer photosynthesis, the Arctic carbon system exhibits smaller seasonal changes than the more alkaline Antarctic system. In addition, the excess surface nutrients in the Antarctic may allow mitigation of acidification, via CO2 removal by enhanced summer production driven by iron inputs from glacial and sea-ice melting. These differences suggest that the Arctic system is more vulnerable to anthropogenic change due to lower alkalinity, enhanced warming, and nutrient limitation.

Vulnerability of Polar Oceans to Anthropogenic Acidification: Comparison of Arctic and Antarctic Seasonal Cycles

PubMed Central

Shadwick, E. H.; Trull, T. W.; Thomas, H.; Gibson, J. A. E.

2013-01-01

Polar oceans are chemically sensitive to anthropogenic acidification due to their relatively low alkalinity and correspondingly weak carbonate buffering capacity. Here, we compare unique CO2 system observations covering complete annual cycles at an Arctic (Amundsen Gulf) and Antarctic site (Prydz Bay). The Arctic site experiences greater seasonal warming (10 vs 3°C), and freshening (3 vs 2), has lower alkalinity (2220 vs 2320 μmol/kg), and lower summer pH (8.15 vs 8.5), than the Antarctic site. Despite a larger uptake of inorganic carbon by summer photosynthesis, the Arctic carbon system exhibits smaller seasonal changes than the more alkaline Antarctic system. In addition, the excess surface nutrients in the Antarctic may allow mitigation of acidification, via CO2 removal by enhanced summer production driven by iron inputs from glacial and sea-ice melting. These differences suggest that the Arctic system is more vulnerable to anthropogenic change due to lower alkalinity, enhanced warming, and nutrient limitation. PMID:23903871

Greenhouse conditions induce mineralogical changes and dolomite accumulation in coralline algae on tropical reefs

PubMed Central

Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Nash, Merinda C.; Anthony, Kenneth R.N.; Bender, Dorothea; Opdyke, Bradley N.; Reyes-Nivia, Catalina; Troitzsch, Ulrike

2014-01-01

Human-induced ocean acidification and warming alter seawater carbonate chemistry reducing the calcification of reef-building crustose coralline algae (CCA), which has implications for reef stability. However, due to the presence of multiple carbonate minerals with different solubilities in seawater, the algal mineralogical responses to changes in carbonate chemistry are poorly understood. Here we demonstrate a 200% increase in dolomite concentration in living CCA under greenhouse conditions of high pCO2 (1,225 μatm) and warming (30 °C). Aragonite, in contrast, increases with lower pCO2 (296 μatm) and low temperature (28 °C). Mineral changes in the surface pigmented skeleton are minor and dolomite and aragonite formation largely occurs in the white crust beneath. Dissolution of high-Mg-calcite and particularly the erosive activities of endolithic algae living inside skeletons play key roles in concentrating dolomite in greenhouse treatments. As oceans acidify and warm in the future, the relative abundance of dolomite in CCA will increase. PMID:24518160

Extreme ultraviolet interferometry of warm dense matter in laser plasmas.

PubMed

Gartside, L M R; Tallents, G J; Rossall, A K; Wagenaars, E; Whittaker, D S; Kozlová, M; Nejdl, J; Sawicka, M; Polan, J; Kalal, M; Rus, B

2010-11-15

We demonstrate that interferometric probing with extreme ultraviolet (EUV) laser light enables determination of the degree of ionization of the "warm dense matter" produced between the critical and ablation surfaces of laser plasmas. Interferometry has been utilized to measure both transmission and phase information for an EUV laser beam at the photon energy of 58.5 eV, probing longitudinally through laser-irradiated plastic (parylene-N) targets (thickness 350 nm) irradiated by a 300 ps duration pulse of wavelength 438 nm and peak irradiance 10(12) W cm(-2). The transmission of the EUV probe beam provides a measure of the rate of target ablation, as ablated plasma becomes close to transparent when the photon energy is less than the ionization energy of the predominant ion species. We show that refractive indices η below the solid parylene N (η(solid) = 0.946) and expected plasma values are produced in the warm dense plasma created by laser irradiation due to bound-free absorption in C(+).

Uncertainty in Arctic climate projections traced to variability of downwelling longwave radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krikken, Folmer; Bintanja, Richard; Hazeleger, WIlco; van Heerwaarden, Chiel

2017-04-01

The Arctic region has warmed rapidly over the last decades, and this warming is projected to increase. The uncertainty in these projections, i.e. intermodel spread, is however very large and a clear understanding of the sources behind the spread is so far still lacking. Here we use 31 state-of-the-art global climate models to show that variability of May downwelling radiation (DLR) in the models' control climate, primarily located at the land surrounding the Arctic ocean, explains 2/3 of the intermodel spread in projected Arctic warming under the RPC85 scenario. This variability is related to the combined radiative effect of the cloud radiative forcing (CRF) and the albedo response due to snowfall, which varies strongly between the models in these regions. This mechanism dampens or enhances yearly variability of DLR in the control climate but also dampens or enhances the climate response of DLR, sea ice cover and near surface temperature.

Highly variable Pliocene sea surface conditions in the Norwegian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachem, Paul E.; Risebrobakken, Bjørg; De Schepper, Stijn; McClymont, Erin L.

2017-09-01

The Pliocene was a time of global warmth with small sporadic glaciations, which transitioned towards the larger-scale Pleistocene glacial-interglacial variability. Here, we present high-resolution records of sea surface temperature (SST) and ice-rafted debris (IRD) in the Norwegian Sea from 5.32 to 3.14 Ma, providing evidence that the Pliocene surface conditions of the Norwegian Sea underwent a series of transitions in response to orbital forcing and gateway changes. Average SSTs are 2 °C above the regional Holocene mean, with notable variability on millennial to orbital timescales. Both gradual changes and threshold effects are proposed for the progression of regional climate towards the Late Pliocene intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Cooling from 4.5 to 4.3 Ma may be linked to the onset of poleward flow through the Bering Strait. This cooling was further intensified by a period of cool summers due to weak obliquity forcing. A 7 °C warming of the Norwegian Sea at 4.0 Ma suggests a major increase in northward heat transport from the North Atlantic, leading to an enhanced zonal SST gradient in the Nordic Seas, which may be linked to the expansion of sea ice in the Arctic and Nordic Seas. A warm Norwegian Sea and enhanced zonal temperature gradient between 4.0 and 3.6 Ma may have been a priming factor for increased glaciation around the Nordic Seas due to enhanced evaporation and precipitation at high northern latitudes.

Optimal weighting of data to detect climatic change - Application to the carbon dioxide problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, T. L.

1982-01-01

It is suggested that a weighting of surface temperature data, using information about the expected level of warming in different seasons and geographical regions and statistical information about the amount of natural variability in surface temperature, can improve the chances of early detection of carbon dioxide concentration-induced climatic warming. A preliminary analysis of the optimal weighting method presented suggests that it is 25 per cent more effective in revealing surface warming than the conventional method, in virtue of the fact that 25 per cent more data must conventionally be analyzed in order to arrive at a similar probability of detection. An approximate calculation suggests that the warming ought to have already been detected, if the only sources of significant surface temperature variability had time scales of less than one year.

The Impacts of Daily Surface Forcing in the Upper Ocean over Tropical Pacific: A Numerical Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sui, C.-H.; Rienecker, Michele M.; Li, Xiaofan; Lau, William K.-M.; Laszlo, Istvan; Pinker, Rachel T.

2001-01-01

Tropical Pacific Ocean is an important region that affects global climate. How the ocean responds to the atmospheric surface forcing (surface radiative, heat and momentum fluxes) is a major topic in oceanographic research community. The ocean becomes warm when more heat flux puts into the ocean. The monthly mean forcing has been used in the past years since daily forcing was unavailable due to the lack of observations. The daily forcing is now available from the satellite measurements. This study investigates the response of the upper ocean over tropical Pacific to the daily atmospheric surface forcing. The ocean surface heat budgets are calculated to determine the important processes for the oceanic response. The differences of oceanic responses between the eastern and western Pacific are intensively discussed.

Investigations of the Climate System Response to Climate Engineering in a Hierarchy of Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, Kelly E.

Global warming due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases is causing negative impacts on diverse ecological and human systems around the globe, and these impacts are projected to worsen as climate continues to warm. In the absence of meaningful greenhouse gas emissions reductions, new strategies have been proposed to engineer the climate, with the aim of preventing further warming and avoiding associated climate impacts. We investigate one such strategy here, falling under the umbrella of `solar radiation management', in which sulfate aerosols are injected into the stratosphere. We use a global climate model with a coupled mixed-layer depth ocean and with a fully-coupled ocean general circulation model to simulate the stabilization of climate by balancing increasing carbon dioxide with increasing stratospheric sulfate concentrations. We evaluate whether or not severe climate impacts, such as melting Arctic sea ice, tropical crop failure, or destabilization of the West Antarctic ice sheet, could be avoided. We find that while tropical climate emergencies might be avoided by use of stratospheric aerosol injections, avoiding polar emergencies cannot be guaranteed due to large residual climate changes in those regions, which are in part due to residual atmospheric circulation anomalies. We also find that the inclusion of a fully-coupled ocean is important for determining the regional climate response because of its dynamical feedbacks. The efficacy of stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections, and solar radiation management more generally, depends on its ability to be maintained indefinitely, without interruption from a variety of possible sources, such as technological failure, a breakdown in global cooperation, lack of funding, or negative unintended consequences. We next consider the scenario in which stratospheric sulfate injections are abruptly terminated after a multi- decadal period of implementation while greenhouse gas emissions have continued unabated. We show that upon cessation, an abrupt, spatially broad, and sustained warming over land occurs that is well outside the bounds of 20th century climate variability. We then use an upwelling-diffusion energy balance climate model to further show the sensitivity of these trends to background greenhouse gas emissions, termination year, and climate sensitivity. We find that the rate of warming from cessation of solar radiation management -- of critical importance for ecological and human systems -- is principally controlled by the background greenhouse gas concentrations. It follows that the only way to avoid the risk of an abrupt and dangerous warming that is inherent to the large-scale implementation of solar radiation management is to also strongly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The climate system responds to radiative forcing on a diverse spectrum of timescales, which will affect what goals can be achieved for a given stratospheric aerosol implementation. We next investigate how different rates of stratospheric sulfate aerosol deployment affect what climate impacts can be avoided by simulating two rates of increasing stratospheric sulfate concentrations in a fully-coupled global climate model. We find that disparate goals are achieved for different rates of deployment; for a slow ramping of sulfate, land surface temperature trends remain small but sea levels continue to rise for decades, whereas a quick ramp-up of sulfate yields large land surface cooling trends and immediately reduces sea level. However, atmospheric circulation changes also act to create a large-scale subsurface ocean environment around Antarctica that is favorable for increased basal melting of ice sheet outlets, thereby leaving the potential open for increased sea level rise even in the absence of large atmospheric surface warming. We show that instead, when greenhouse gases are abruptly returned to preindustrial levels, circulation anomalies are reversed, and the subsurface ocean environment does not pose the same threat to Antarctic ice sheets. We conclude that again, reduction of greenhouse gases is the preferred strategy for avoiding climate impacts of global warming.

Do radiative feedbacks depend on the structure and type of climate forcing, or only on the spatial pattern of surface temperature change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haugstad, A.; Battisti, D. S.; Armour, K.

2016-12-01

Earth's climate sensitivity depends critically on the strength of radiative feedbacks linking surface warming to changes in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation. Many studies use a simplistic idea of radiative feedbacks, either by treating them as global mean quantities, or by assuming they can be defined uniquely by geographic location and thus that TOA radiative response depends only on local surface warming. For example, a uniform increase in sea-surface temperature has been widely used as a surrogate for global warming (e.g., Cess et al 1990 and the CMIP 'aqua4k' simulations), with the assumption that this produces the same radiative feedbacks as those arising from a doubling of carbon dioxide - even though the spatial patterns of warming differ. However, evidence suggests that these assumptions are not valid, and local feedbacks may be integrally dependent on the structure of warming or type of climate forcing applied (Rose et al 2014). This study thus investigates the following questions: to what extent do local feedbacks depend on the structure and type of forcing applied? And, to what extent do they depend on the pattern of surface temperature change induced by that forcing? Using an idealized framework of an aquaplanet atmosphere-only model, we show that radiative feedbacks are indeed dependent on the large scale structure of warming and type of forcing applied. For example, the climate responds very differently to two forcings of equal global magnitude but applied in different global regions; the pattern of local feedbacks arising from uniform warming are not the same as that arising from polar amplified warming; and the same local feedbacks can be induced by distinct forcing patterns, provided that they produce the same pattern of surface temperature change. These findings suggest that the so-called `efficacies' of climate forcings can be understood simply in terms of how local feedbacks depend on the temperature patterns they induce.

Alkenone based constraints of the hydrological development in the mozambique channel over the last 39, 000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasper, Sebastian; Castañeda, Isla; Tjallingii, Rik; Brummer, Geert-Jan; Schneider, Ralph; Sininnghe-Damsté, Jaap S.; Schouten, Stefan; van der Meer, Marcel T. J.

2014-05-01

Indian Ocean surface circulation through the Mozambique Channel forms the upstream source for the Agulhas Current, which is the main mechanism for transporting warm and salty waters from the Indian Ocean into the Atlantic via the Agulhas Leakage (Lutjeharms 2006). However, the Agulhas Leakage was reduced substantially during glacial times due to the northward migration of the subtropical fronts and shifts in the wind fields, and resulted in accumulation of warm and saline waters in the Southwest Indian Ocean (Peeters et al., 2004). A better understanding of the interactions between sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) in the Agulhas source region are fundamental for reconstructing past changes in this surface warm water route of the global conveyor and ocean-continent climate linkage with respect to South Africa. Here we present a record of the stable hydrogen isotope composition of the combined di- and tri- unsaturated alkenones (Dalkenone) that might relate to past SSS variations. We compare the variations of the Dalkenone with UK'37 SST records from sediment core 64PE304-80 located in the Mozambique Channel off the Zambezi River mouth. To estimate the influence of freshwater input at this site the alkenone hydrogen isotope record was compared to BIT Index values and Ca/Ti ratios reflecting the input of soil organic matter and lithogenic material on the core site, respectively. During the last glacial maximum (LGM) and the onset of Heinrich event 1 (HE1) at ~18,000 years, Dalkenone and UK'37 are positively correlated. The Dalkenone is more enriched during HE1 corresponding with high BIT values, increased Ca/Ti ratios, and relatively cold SST values. After ~16 ka, Dalkenone values decrease when UK'37 SST increases throughout the early Holocene, suggesting an increase of the continental precipitation and runoff during periods of increased SST. This period can be related to postglacial warming of the tropical ocean or due to a latitudinal shift in the ITCZ over Africa (e.g. Schefuss et al., 2011). Alternatively, the change in the paleosalinity signal may result from the change in the position of the Zambezi River and transport of the river plume by coastal currents and relative to the core location as a result of eustatic sea level rise. For the late Holocene the Dalkenone record shows relatively stable conditions that are interrupted by an excursion to more positive values from approximately 5000 to 1600 years BP. This excursion could be explained by variations of freshwater input related to the Zambezi run off.

A global ocean climatological atlas of the Turner angle: implications for double-diffusion and water-mass structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, Yuzhu

2002-11-01

The 1994 Levitus climatological atlas is used to calculate the Turner angle (named after J. Stewart Turner) to examine which oceanic water masses are favorable for double-diffusion in the form of diffusive convection or salt-fingering and which are doubly stable. This atlas complements the Levitus climatology. It reveals the major double-diffusive signals associated with large-scale water-mass structure. In total, about 44% of the oceans display double-diffusion, of which 30% is salt-fingering and 14% is diffusive double-diffusion. Results show that various central and deep waters are favorable for salt-fingering. The former is due to positive evaporation minus precipitation, and the latter is due to thermohaline circulation, i.e. the southward spreading of relatively warm, salty North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) overlying cold, fresh Antarctic Bottom Water. In the northern Indian Ocean and eastern North Atlantic, favorable conditions for salt-fingering are found throughout the water column. The Red Sea (including the Persian Gulf) and Mediterranean Sea are the sources of warm, salty water for the ocean. As consequence, temperature and salinity in these outflow regions both decrease from the sea surface to the bottom. On the other hand, ocean currents are in general sluggish in these regions. In the polar and subpolar regions of Arctic and Antarctic, Okhotsk Sea, Gulf of Alaska, the subpolar gyre of the North Pacific, the Labrador Sea, and the Norwegian Sea, the upper layer water is favorable for diffusive convection because of high latitude surface cooling and ice melting. Weak and shallow diffusive convection is also found throughout tropical regions and the Bay of Bengal. The former is due to excessive precipitation over evaporation and rain cooling, and the latter is due to both precipitation and river runoff. Diffusive convection in the ocean's interior is unique to the South Atlantic between Antarctic Intermediate Water and upper NADW (uNADW). It is the consequence of the intrusive equatorward flow of upper Circumpolar Deep Water, which carries with it the minimum temperature and very low salinity overlying warm, salty uNADW.

Increasing frequency and duration of Arctic winter warming events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, R. M.; Cohen, L.; Petty, A.; Boisvert, L.; Rinke, A.; Hudson, S. R.; Nicolaus, M.; Granskog, M. A.

2017-12-01

Record low Arctic sea ice extents were observed during the last three winter seasons (March). During each of these winters, near-surface air temperatures close to 0°C were observed, in situ, over sea ice in the central Arctic. Recent media reports and scientific studies suggest that such winter warming events were unprecedented for the Arctic. Here we use in situ winter (December-March) temperature observations, such as those from Soviet North Pole drifting stations and ocean buoys, to determine how common Arctic winter warming events are. The earliest record we find of a winter warming event was in March 1896, where a temperature of -3.7˚C was observed at 84˚N during the Fram expedition. Observations of winter warming events exist over most of the Arctic Basin. Despite a limited observational network, temperatures exceeding -5°C were measured in situ during more than 30% of winters from 1954 to 2010, by either North Pole drifting stations or ocean buoys. Correlation coefficients between the atmospheric reanalysis, ERA-Interim, and these in-situ temperature records are shown to be on the order of 0.90. This suggests that ERA-Interim is a suitable tool for studying Arctic winter warming events. Using the ERA-Interim record (1979-2016), we show that the North Pole (NP) region typically experiences 10 warming events (T2m > -10°C) per winter, compared with only five in the Pacific Central Arctic (PCA). We find a positive trend in the overall duration of winter warming events for both the NP region (4.25 days/decade) and PCA (1.16 days/decade), due to an increased number of events of longer duration.

Air pollution, greenhouse gases and climate change: Global and regional perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramanathan, V.; Feng, Y.

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) warm the surface and the atmosphere with significant implications for rainfall, retreat of glaciers and sea ice, sea level, among other factors. About 30 years ago, it was recognized that the increase in tropospheric ozone from air pollution (NO x, CO and others) is an important greenhouse forcing term. In addition, the recognition of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) on stratospheric ozone and its climate effects linked chemistry and climate strongly. What is less recognized, however, is a comparably major global problem dealing with air pollution. Until about ten years ago, air pollution was thought to be just an urban or a local problem. But new data have revealed that air pollution is transported across continents and ocean basins due to fast long-range transport, resulting in trans-oceanic and trans-continental plumes of atmospheric brown clouds (ABCs) containing sub micron size particles, i.e., aerosols. ABCs intercept sunlight by absorbing as well as reflecting it, both of which lead to a large surface dimming. The dimming effect is enhanced further because aerosols may nucleate more cloud droplets, which makes the clouds reflect more solar radiation. The dimming has a surface cooling effect and decreases evaporation of moisture from the surface, thus slows down the hydrological cycle. On the other hand, absorption of solar radiation by black carbon and some organics increase atmospheric heating and tend to amplify greenhouse warming of the atmosphere. ABCs are concentrated in regional and mega-city hot spots. Long-range transport from these hot spots causes widespread plumes over the adjacent oceans. Such a pattern of regionally concentrated surface dimming and atmospheric solar heating, accompanied by widespread dimming over the oceans, gives rise to large regional effects. Only during the last decade, we have begun to comprehend the surprisingly large regional impacts. In S. Asia and N. Africa, the large north-south gradient in the ABC dimming has altered both the north-south gradients in sea surface temperatures and land-ocean contrast in surface temperatures, which in turn slow down the monsoon circulation and decrease rainfall over the continents. On the other hand, heating by black carbon warms the atmosphere at elevated levels from 2 to 6 km, where most tropical glaciers are located, thus strengthening the effect of GHGs on retreat of snow packs and glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya-Tibetan glaciers. Globally, the surface cooling effect of ABCs may have masked as much 47% of the global warming by greenhouse gases, with an uncertainty range of 20-80%. This presents a dilemma since efforts to curb air pollution may unmask the ABC cooling effect and enhance the surface warming. Thus efforts to reduce GHGs and air pollution should be done under one common framework. The uncertainties in our understanding of the ABC effects are large, but we are discovering new ways in which human activities are changing the climate and the environment.

Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall.

PubMed

Winkelmann, R; Levermann, A; Martin, M A; Frieler, K

2012-12-13

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica and thus in the ultimate fate of the precipitation-deposited ice mass. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500 (ref. 8), show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario. The reported effect thus strongly counters a potential negative contribution to global sea level by the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Antarctic ice sheet mass loss estimates using Modified Antarctic Mapping Mission surface flow observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Diandong; Leslie, Lance M.; Lynch, Mervyn J.

2013-03-01

The long residence time of ice and the relatively gentle slopes of the Antarctica Ice Sheet make basal sliding a unique positive feedback mechanism in enhancing ice discharge along preferred routes. The highly organized ice stream channels extending to the interior from the lower reach of the outlets are a manifestation of the role of basal granular material in enhancing the ice flow. In this study, constraining the model-simulated year 2000 ice flow fields with surface velocities obtained from InSAR measurements permits retrieval of the basal sliding parameters. Forward integrations of the ice model driven by atmospheric and oceanic parameters from coupled general circulation models under different emission scenarios provide a range of estimates of total ice mass loss during the 21st century. The total mass loss rate has a small intermodel and interscenario spread, rising from approximately -160 km3/yr at present to approximately -220 km3/yr by 2100. The accelerated mass loss rate of the Antarctica Ice Sheet in a warming climate is due primarily to a dynamic response in the form of an increase in ice flow speed. Ice shelves contribute to this feedback through a reduced buttressing effect due to more frequent systematic, tabular calving events. For example, by 2100 the Ross Ice Shelf is projected to shed 40 km3 during each systematic tabular calving. After the frontal section's attrition, the remaining shelf will rebound. Consequently, the submerged cross-sectional area will reduce, as will the buttressing stress. Longitudinal differential warming of ocean temperature contributes to tabular calving. Because of the prevalence of fringe ice shelves, oceanic effects likely will play a very important role in the future mass balance of the Antarctica Ice Sheet, under a possible future warming climate.

Late Holocene Sea Surface Temperature Trends in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rustic, G. T.; Koutavas, A.; Marchitto, T. M., Jr.

2015-12-01

The Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) is a highly dynamic ocean region capable of exerting influencing on global climate as illustrated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The sea surface temperature (SST) history of this region in past millennia is poorly constrained due to the lack of in situ records with appropriate resolution. Here we present a ~2700 year sub-centennially resolved SST reconstruction from Mg/Ca ratios of the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber from Galápagos sediments. The ETP SST record exhibits a long-term cooling trend of over 0.2°C/ky that is similar to Northern Hemisphere multi-proxy temperature trends suggesting a common origin, likely due to insolation forcing. The ETP remains in-phase with Northern Hemisphere climate records through the warm Roman Climate Optimum (~0-400CE), cooler Dark Ages Cold Period (~450-850CE), and through the peak warming of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (900-1150 CE) when SST is within error of modern. Following peak MCA, the ETP cooled rapidly and then rebounded at ~1500 CE during the coldest portion of the Little Ice Age. Overall the data suggest an out-of-phase relationship during much of the last millennium, which we attribute to dynamical adjustments consistent with the "dynamical ocean thermostat" mechanism. Further evidence for these dynamical adjustments comes from reconstructions of the east-west zonal SST gradient using existing Mg/Ca SST reconstructions from the western Pacific warm pool. The last millennium has been the most dynamic period over the past 2700 years, with significant (~1 °C) SST variability in the ETP and modulation of the zonal gradient. A combination of dynamical and thermodynamic mechanisms are invoked to explain the region's complex SST history.

Periodic fluctuations in deep water formation due to sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, R.

2012-12-01

During the last ice age, several abrupt warming events took place, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events. Their effects were felt globally, although the North Atlantic experienced the largest temperature increase. The leading hypothesis to explain their occurrence postulates that the warming was caused by abrupt disruptions of the North Atlantic Current due to meltwater discharge from destabilized ice sheets (Heinrich events). However, the number of warming events outnumber the those of ice-sheet collapse. Thus, the majority of D-O events are not attributed to surface freshwater anomalies, and the underlying mechanism behind their occurrence remain unexplained. Using a simple dynamical model of sea ice and an overturning circulation, I show the existence of self-sustained relaxation oscillations in the overturning circulation. The insulating effect of sea ice is shown to paradoxically lead to a net loss of heat from the top layer of the polar ocean when sea ice retreats. Repeated heat loss results in a denser top layer and a destabilized water column, which triggers convection. The convective state pulls the system out of its preferred mode of circulation, setting up relaxation oscillations. The period of oscillations in this case is linked to the geometry of the ocean basin, if solar forcing is assumed to remain constant. If appropriate glacial freshwater forcing is applied to the model, a pattern of oscillation is produced that bears remarkable similarity to the observed fluctuations in North Atlantic climate between 50,000 and 30,000 years before present.; Comparison of NGRIP δ 18-O (proxy for near surface air temperature) between 50,000 and 30,000 years before present, showing Bond cycles (left) with the model output when forced with appropriate glacial freshwater forcing (right).

The changing effects of Alaska’s boreal forests on the climate system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Euskirchen, E.S.; McGuire, A. David; Chapin, F.S.; Rupp, T.S.

2010-01-01

In the boreal forests of Alaska, recent changes in climate have influenced the exchange of trace gases, water, and energy between these forests and the atmosphere. These changes in the structure and function of boreal forests can then feed back to impact regional and global climates. In this manuscript, we examine the type and magnitude of the climate feedbacks from boreal forests in Alaska. Research generally suggests that the net effect of a warming climate is a positive regional feedback to warming. Currently, the primary positive climate feedbacks are likely related to decreases in surface albedo due to decreases in snow cover. Fewer negative feedbacks have been identified, and they may not be large enough to counterbalance the large positive feedbacks. These positive feedbacks are most pronounced at the regional scale and reduce the resilience of the boreal vegetation – climate system by amplifying the rate of regional warming. Given the recent warming in this region, the large variety of associated mechanisms that can alter terrestrial ecosystems and influence the climate system, and a reduction in the boreal forest resilience, there is a strong need to continue to quantify and evaluate the feedback pathways.

Impacts of large scale afforestation on regional climate: a case study in the Kubuqi Desert, Inner Mongolia based on WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Lin, G.; Feng, D.; Chen, S.; Schultz, N. M.; Fu, C.; Wei, Z.; Yin, C.; Wang, W.; Lee, X.

2017-12-01

To better design climate mitigation strategies, it is important to understand the response of regional climatic indicators and related biophysical forcings to large scale afforestation projects. The response of surface temperature (Ts) caused by afforestation activities in the Kubuqi Desert, Inner Mongolia, China is simulated by the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and the temperature changes (ΔTs) are decomposed into contributions from changes in surface albedo, surface roughness, Bowen ratio and ground heat flux using the intrinsic biophysical mechanism (IBPM). The 30-m resolution land cover maps of the Kubuqi Desert corresponding to 2000 and 2010 conditions are analyzed and the major land use changes are found to be an increase in the area of grassland (6%) and shrubland (15%), but a decrease in the area of bare land (21%) owed to the aerial seeding afforestation activities organized by Elion Resources Group, Co. and local government agencies. Our WRF simulations show that during winter, the increased cover of vegetation mainly has a warming effect (0.38 K) in the daytime due to the changes in albedo (0.24 K) and Bowen ratio (0.15 K). In the nighttime, the vegetation has a slight warming effect (0.2 K) mainly caused by energy redistribution associated with roughness change (0.2 K) as a result of vegetation turbulence, which brought heat from aloft to the surface. Although both roughness change (-0.35 K) and Bowen ratio change (-0.35 K) have cooling effects during summer days, the warming effect caused by radiative forcing (0.93 K) dominates the ΔTs. During summer nights, the change in surface temperature is not significant. Our findings demonstrate that the large-scale afforestation project in the Kubuqi Desert during a decade alters the regional surface temperature and the analysis of biophysical forcings changes using WRF simulation provides useful information for developing climate change mitigation strategies in semi-arid and arid regions.

Stratospheric ozone changes under solar geoengineering: implications for UV exposure and air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowack, Peer Johannes; Abraham, Nathan Luke; Braesicke, Peter; Pyle, John Adrian

2016-03-01

Various forms of geoengineering have been proposed to counter anthropogenic climate change. Methods which aim to modify the Earth's energy balance by reducing insolation are often subsumed under the term solar radiation management (SRM). Here, we present results of a standard SRM modelling experiment in which the incoming solar irradiance is reduced to offset the global mean warming induced by a quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. For the first time in an atmosphere-ocean coupled climate model, we include atmospheric composition feedbacks for this experiment. While the SRM scheme considered here could offset greenhouse gas induced global mean surface warming, it leads to important changes in atmospheric composition. We find large stratospheric ozone increases that induce significant reductions in surface UV-B irradiance, which would have implications for vitamin D production. In addition, the higher stratospheric ozone levels lead to decreased ozone photolysis in the troposphere. In combination with lower atmospheric specific humidity under SRM, this results in overall surface ozone concentration increases in the idealized G1 experiment. Both UV-B and surface ozone changes are important for human health. We therefore highlight that both stratospheric and tropospheric ozone changes must be considered in the assessment of any SRM scheme, due to their important roles in regulating UV exposure and air quality.

Eddy-induced transport of the Kuroshio warm water around the Ryukyu Islands in the East China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamidaira, Yuki; Uchiyama, Yusuke; Mitarai, Satoshi

2017-07-01

In this study, an oceanic downscaling model in a double-nested configuration was used to investigate the role played by the Kuroshio warm current in preserving and maintaining biological diversity in the coral coasts around the Ryukyu Islands (Japan). A comparison of the modeled data demonstrated that the innermost submesoscale eddy-resolving model successfully reproduced the synoptic and mesoscale oceanic structures even without data assimilation. The Kuroshio flows on the shelf break of the East China Sea approximately 150-200 km from the islands; therefore, eddy-induced transient processes are essential to the lateral transport of material within the strip between the Kuroshio and the islands. The model indicated an evident predominance of submesoscale anticyclonic eddies over cyclonic eddies near the surface of this strip. An energy conversion analysis relevant to the eddy-generation mechanisms revealed that a combination of both the shear instability due to the Kuroshio and the topography and baroclinic instability around the Kuroshio front jointly provoke these near-surface anticyclonic eddies, as well as the subsurface cyclonic eddies that are shed around the shelf break. Both surface and subsurface eddies fit within the submesoscale, and they are energized more as the grid resolution of the model is increased. An eddy heat flux (EHF) analysis was performed with decomposition into the divergent (dEHF) and rotational (rEHF) components. The rEHF vectors appeared along the temperature variance contours by following the Kuroshio, whereas the dEHF properly measured the transverse transport normal to the Kuroshio's path. The diagnostic EHF analysis demonstrated that an asymmetric dEHF occurs within the surface mixed layer, which promotes eastward transport toward the islands. Conversely, below the mixed layer, a negative dEHF tongue is formed that promotes the subsurface westward warm water transport.

Effects of urban land-use change in East China on the East Asian summer monsoon based on the CAM5.1 model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Hongyun; Jiang, Zhihong; Song, Jie; Dai, Aiguo; Yang, Xiuqun; Huo, Fei

2016-05-01

The effects of urban land-use change in East China on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are investigated using a Community Atmosphere Model Version 5.1. The results show that the urban land-use change in East China causes spatially-varying changes in surface net radiation and heat fluxes, atmospheric circulation, and water budgets. It results in significant surface warming (cooling) and precipitation decrease (increase) in a large region north (south) of 30°N. Urban expansion agglomerated in (29°-41°N, 110°-122°E) alters the surface energy budget and warms the surface, resulting in strengthened southwesterly airflow south of 25°N and increased convergence below the mid-troposphere between 20° and 30°N. A concomitant northward downdraft associated with the increased convection generates an anomalous high pressure north of 30°N. Meanwhile, the downdraft not only produces adiabatic warming but also inhibits the dynamic condition for precipitation formation. The anomalous high pressure formed in North China prevents the southwesterly airflow from advancing northward, leading to increase the convergence and precipitation in South China. These changes reduce the meridional temperature gradient in the mid-lower troposphere and weaken the westerly airflow near 30°N. In addition, horizontal transport of vorticity north of 35°N weakens significantly, which leads to an anomalous barotropic structure of anticyclonic there. As a result, the anomalous anticyclonic circulation and descent north of 30°N are strengthened. At the same time, the anomalous cyclonic circulation and ascent south of 30°N are enhanced. These process induced by the thermal state changes due to urbanization weakens the EASM.

Observed impacts of wind farms on land surface temperature in Inner Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, B.; Zhao, X.; Wu, D.; Zhao, W.; Wei, H.

2015-12-01

Abstract: The wind turbine industry in china has experienced a dramatic increase in recent years and wind farms (WFs) have an impact on the underlying surface conditions of climate system. This paper assesses the impacts of wind farms by analyzing the variations of the land surface temperature (LST) data for the period of 2003-2014 over a region consisted of 1097 turbines in the Huitengxile Wind Farm, the largest wind farm in Asia. We first compare the spatial coupling between the geographic layouts of the WFs and the spatial patterns of LST changes of two periods (post- versus pre- wind turbines construction) and then employ the difference of LST between WF pixels and surrounding non-WF pixels to quantify the effects of WFs. The results reveal that the LST at daytime increases by 0.52-0.86°C in winter, spring and autumn and decreases by about 0.56°C in summer over the WFs on average, with the spatial pattern of this warming or cooling generally coupled with the geographic distribution of the wind turbines, while the changes in LST at nighttime are much noisier. The daytime LST warming or cooling effects vary with seasons, and the strongest warming and tightest spatial coupling are in autumn months of September-November. The seasonal variations in albedo due to the construction of wind turbines are primarily responsible for the daytime LST changes. Areal mean decreases in winter, spring and autumn and increase in summer in albedo are observed over the WFs and the spatial pattern and magnitude of the changes in albedo couple very well with the layouts of the wind turbines. The increase (decrease) in albedo over the WFs indicates that WFs across the Huitengxile grassland absorb less (more) incoming radiation, thus resulting in a decrease (increase) in LST at daytime. The inter-annual variations in areal mean LST differences at daytime are highly correlated with those in areal mean albedo differences for all four seasons (R2=0.48~0.67). Our findings are in contrast with those studies, which show a warming effect at nighttime and no apparent effect on LST at daytime over the WFs in the United States. Keywords: Wind farm impacts; land surface temperature; albedo; warming and cooling

Modeling the air-sea feedback system of Madeira Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pullen, Julie; Caldeira, Rui; Doyle, James D.; May, Paul; Tomé, Ricardo

2017-07-01

A realistic nested data-assimilating two-way coupled ocean/atmosphere modeling study (highest resolution 2 km) of Madeira Island was conducted for June 2011, when conditions were favorable for atmospheric vortex shedding. The simulation's island lee region exhibited relatively cloud-free conditions, promoting warmer ocean temperatures (˜2°C higher than adjacent waters). The model reasonably reproduced measured fields at 14 meteorological stations, and matched the dimensions and magnitude of the warm sea surface temperature (SST) wake imaged by satellite. The warm SSTs in the wake are shown to imprint onto the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over several diurnal cycles by modulating the ABL depth up to ˜200-500 m. The erosion and dissipation of the warm ocean wake overnight was aided by atmospheric drainage flow and offshore advection of cold air (ΔT = 2°C) that produced strong upward heat fluxes (˜50 W/m2 sensible and ˜250 W/m2 latent) on an episodic basis. Nevertheless, the warm wake was never entirely eroded at night due to the cumulative effect of the diurnal cycle. The spatial pattern of the diurnal warming varied day-to-day in location and extent. Significant mutual interaction of the oceanic and atmospheric boundary layers was diagnosed via fluxes and temperature cross sections and reinforced by sensitivity runs. The simulation produces for the first time the interactive nature of the ocean and atmosphere boundary layers in the warm wake region of an island with complex terrain.

Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.

2017-01-01

Climate warming is expected to increase stream temperatures in mountainous regions of western North America, yet the degree to which future climate change may influence seasonal patterns of stream temperature is uncertain. In this study, a spatially explicit statistical model framework was integrated with empirical stream temperature data (approximately four million bi-hourly recordings) and high-resolution climate and land surface data to estimate monthly stream temperatures and potential change under future climate scenarios in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada (72,000 km2). Moderate and extreme warming scenarios forecast increasing stream temperatures during spring, summer, and fall, with the largest increases predicted during summer (July, August, and September). Additionally, thermal regimes characteristic of current August temperatures, the warmest month of the year, may be exceeded during July and September, suggesting an earlier and extended duration of warm summer stream temperatures. Models estimate that the largest magnitude of temperature warming relative to current conditions may be observed during the shoulder months of winter (April and November). Summer stream temperature warming is likely to be most pronounced in glacial-fed streams where models predict the largest magnitude (> 50%) of change due to the loss of alpine glaciers. We provide the first broad-scale analysis of seasonal climate effects on spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem for better understanding climate change impacts on freshwater habitats and guiding conservation and climate adaptation strategies.

Simulating the role of surface forcing on observed multidecadal upper-ocean salinity changes

DOE PAGES

Lago, Veronique; Wijffels, Susan E.; Durack, Paul J.; ...

2016-07-18

The ocean’s surface salinity field has changed over the observed record, driven by an intensification of the water cycle in response to global warming. However, the origin and causes of the coincident subsurface salinity changes are not fully understood. The relationship between imposed surface salinity and temperature changes and their corresponding subsurface changes is investigated using idealized ocean model experiments. The ocean’s surface has warmed by about 0.5°C (50 yr) –1 while the surface salinity pattern has amplified by about 8% per 50 years. The idealized experiments are constructed for a 50-yr period, allowing a qualitative comparison to the observedmore » salinity and temperature changes previously reported. The comparison suggests that changes in both modeled surface salinity and temperature are required to replicate the three-dimensional pattern of observed salinity change. The results also show that the effects of surface changes in temperature and salinity act linearly on the changes in subsurface salinity. In addition, surface salinity pattern amplification appears to be the leading driver of subsurface salinity change on depth surfaces; however, surface warming is also required to replicate the observed patterns of change on density surfaces. This is the result of isopycnal migration modified by the ocean surface warming, which produces significant salinity changes on density surfaces.« less

Simulating the role of surface forcing on observed multidecadal upper-ocean salinity changes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lago, Veronique; Wijffels, Susan E.; Durack, Paul J.

The ocean’s surface salinity field has changed over the observed record, driven by an intensification of the water cycle in response to global warming. However, the origin and causes of the coincident subsurface salinity changes are not fully understood. The relationship between imposed surface salinity and temperature changes and their corresponding subsurface changes is investigated using idealized ocean model experiments. The ocean’s surface has warmed by about 0.5°C (50 yr) –1 while the surface salinity pattern has amplified by about 8% per 50 years. The idealized experiments are constructed for a 50-yr period, allowing a qualitative comparison to the observedmore » salinity and temperature changes previously reported. The comparison suggests that changes in both modeled surface salinity and temperature are required to replicate the three-dimensional pattern of observed salinity change. The results also show that the effects of surface changes in temperature and salinity act linearly on the changes in subsurface salinity. In addition, surface salinity pattern amplification appears to be the leading driver of subsurface salinity change on depth surfaces; however, surface warming is also required to replicate the observed patterns of change on density surfaces. This is the result of isopycnal migration modified by the ocean surface warming, which produces significant salinity changes on density surfaces.« less

On the influence of simulated SST warming on rainfall projections in the Indo-Pacific domain: an AGCM study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Huqiang; Zhao, Y.; Moise, A.; Ye, H.; Colman, R.; Roff, G.; Zhao, M.

2018-02-01

Significant uncertainty exists in regional climate change projections, particularly for rainfall and other hydro-climate variables. In this study, we conduct a series of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments with different future sea surface temperature (SST) warming simulated by a range of coupled climate models. They allow us to assess the extent to which uncertainty from current coupled climate model rainfall projections can be attributed to their simulated SST warming. Nine CMIP5 model-simulated global SST warming anomalies have been super-imposed onto the current SSTs simulated by the Australian climate model ACCESS1.3. The ACCESS1.3 SST-forced experiments closely reproduce rainfall means and interannual variations as in its own fully coupled experiments. Although different global SST warming intensities explain well the inter-model difference in global mean precipitation changes, at regional scales the SST influence vary significantly. SST warming explains about 20-25% of the patterns of precipitation changes in each of the four/five models in its rainfall projections over the oceans in the Indo-Pacific domain, but there are also a couple of models in which different SST warming explains little of their precipitation pattern changes. The influence is weaker again for rainfall changes over land. Roughly similar levels of contribution can be attributed to different atmospheric responses to SST warming in these models. The weak SST influence in our study could be due to the experimental setup applied: superimposing different SST warming anomalies onto the same SSTs simulated for current climate by ACCESS1.3 rather than directly using model-simulated past and future SSTs. Similar modelling and analysis from other modelling groups with more carefully designed experiments are needed to tease out uncertainties caused by different SST warming patterns, different SST mean biases and different model physical/dynamical responses to the same underlying SST forcing.

Comparison of regional and seasonal changes and trends in daily surface temperature extremes over India and its subregions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimri, A. P.

2018-04-01

Regional changes in surface meteorological variables are one of the key issues affecting the Indian subcontinent especially in recent decades. These changes impact agriculture, health, water, etc., hence important to assess and investigate these changes. The Indian subcontinent is characterized by heterogeneous temperature regimes at regional and seasonal scales. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) observations are limited to recent decades as far as its spatial distribution is concerned. In particular, over Hilly region, these observations are sporadic. Due to variable topography and heterogeneous land use/land cover, it is complex to substantiate impacts. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim (ERA-I) reanalysis not only covers a larger spatial domain but also provides a greater number of inputs than IMD. This study used ERA-I in conjunction with IMD gridded data to provide a comparative assessment of changing temperature patterns over India and its subregions at both regional and seasonal scales. Warming patterns are observed in both ERA-I and IMD data sets. Cold nights decrease during winter; warm days increase and warm spell duration increased during winter could become a cause of concern for society, agriculture, socio-economic reasons, and health. Increasing warm days over the hilly regions may affect the corresponding snow cover and thus river hydrology and glaciological dynamics. Such changes during monsoon are slower, which could be attributed to moisture availability to dampen the temperature changes. On investigation and comparison thereon, the present study provisions usages of ERA-I-based indices for various impact and adaptation studies.

Recent surface temperature trends in the interior of East Antarctica from borehole firn temperature measurements and geophysical inverse methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muto, A.; Scambos, T.A.; Steffen, K.; Slater, A.G.; Clow, G.D.

2011-01-01

We use measured firn temperatures down to depths of 80 to 90 m at four locations in the interior of Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica to derive surface temperature histories spanning the past few decades using two different inverse methods. We find that the mean surface temperatures near the ice divide (the highest-elevation ridge of East Antarctic Ice Sheet) have increased approximately 1 to 1.5 K within the past ???50 years, although the onset and rate of this warming vary by site. Histories at two locations, NUS07-5 (78.65S, 35.64E) and NUS07-7 (82.07S, 54.89E), suggest that the majority of this warming took place in the past one or two decades. Slight cooling to no change was indicated at one location, NUS08-5 (82.63S, 17.87E), off the divide near the Recovery Lakes region. In the most recent decade, inversion results indicate both cooler and warmer periods at different sites due to high interannual variability and relatively high resolution of the inverted surface temperature histories. The overall results of our analysis fit a pattern of recent climate trends emerging from several sources of the Antarctic temperature reconstructions: there is a contrast in surface temperature trends possibly related to altitude in this part of East Antarctica. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Desert Amplification in a Warming Climate

PubMed Central

Zhou, Liming

2016-01-01

Here I analyze the observed and projected surface temperature anomalies over land between 50°S-50°N for the period 1950–2099 by large-scale ecoregion and find strongest warming consistently and persistently seen over driest ecoregions such as the Sahara desert and the Arabian Peninsula during various 30-year periods, pointing to desert amplification in a warming climate. This amplification enhances linearly with the global mean greenhouse gases(GHGs) radiative forcing and is attributable primarily to a stronger GHGs-enhanced downward longwave radiation forcing reaching the surface over drier ecoregions as a consequence of a warmer and thus moister atmosphere in response to increasing GHGs. These results indicate that desert amplification may represent a fundamental pattern of global warming associated with water vapor feedbacks over land in low- and mid- latitudes where surface warming rates depend inversely on ecosystem dryness. It is likely that desert amplification might involve two types of water vapor feedbacks that maximize respectively in the tropical upper troposphere and near the surface over deserts, with both being very dry and thus extremely sensitive to changes of water vapor. PMID:27538725

Long-Term Warming Shifts the Composition of Bacterial Communities in the Phyllosphere of Galium album in a Permanent Grassland Field-Experiment

PubMed Central

Aydogan, Ebru L.; Moser, Gerald; Müller, Christoph; Kämpfer, Peter; Glaeser, Stefanie P.

2018-01-01

Global warming is currently a much discussed topic with as yet largely unexplored consequences for agro-ecosystems. Little is known about the warming effect on the bacterial microbiota inhabiting the plant surface (phyllosphere), which can have a strong impact on plant growth and health, as well as on plant diseases and colonization by human pathogens. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of moderate surface warming on the diversity and composition of the bacterial leaf microbiota of the herbaceous plant Galium album. Leaves were collected from four control and four surface warmed (+2°C) plots located at the field site of the Environmental Monitoring and Climate Impact Research Station Linden in Germany over a 6-year period. Warming had no effect on the concentration of total number of cells attached to the leaf surface as counted by Sybr Green I staining after detachment, but changes in the diversity and phylogenetic composition of the bacterial leaf microbiota analyzed by bacterial 16S rRNA gene Illumina amplicon sequencing were observed. The bacterial phyllosphere microbiota were dominated by Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, and Actinobacteria. Warming caused a significant higher relative abundance of members of the Gammaproteobacteria, Actinobacteria, and Firmicutes, and a lower relative abundance of members of the Alphaproteobacteria and Bacteroidetes. Plant beneficial bacteria like Sphingomonas spp. and Rhizobium spp. occurred in significantly lower relative abundance in leaf samples of warmed plots. In contrast, several members of the Enterobacteriaceae, especially Enterobacter and Erwinia, and other potential plant or human pathogenic genera such as Acinetobacter and insect-associated Buchnera and Wolbachia spp. occurred in higher relative abundances in the phyllosphere samples from warmed plots. This study showed for the first time the long-term impact of moderate (+2°C) surface warming on the phyllosphere microbiota on plants. A reduction of beneficial bacteria and an enhancement of potential pathogenic bacteria in the phyllosphere of plants may indicate that this aspect of the ecosystem which has been largely neglected up till now, can be a potential risk for pathogen transmission in agro-ecosystems in the near future. PMID:29487575

Long-Term Warming Shifts the Composition of Bacterial Communities in the Phyllosphere of Galium album in a Permanent Grassland Field-Experiment.

PubMed

Aydogan, Ebru L; Moser, Gerald; Müller, Christoph; Kämpfer, Peter; Glaeser, Stefanie P

2018-01-01

Global warming is currently a much discussed topic with as yet largely unexplored consequences for agro-ecosystems. Little is known about the warming effect on the bacterial microbiota inhabiting the plant surface (phyllosphere), which can have a strong impact on plant growth and health, as well as on plant diseases and colonization by human pathogens. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of moderate surface warming on the diversity and composition of the bacterial leaf microbiota of the herbaceous plant Galium album . Leaves were collected from four control and four surface warmed (+2°C) plots located at the field site of the Environmental Monitoring and Climate Impact Research Station Linden in Germany over a 6-year period. Warming had no effect on the concentration of total number of cells attached to the leaf surface as counted by Sybr Green I staining after detachment, but changes in the diversity and phylogenetic composition of the bacterial leaf microbiota analyzed by bacterial 16S rRNA gene Illumina amplicon sequencing were observed. The bacterial phyllosphere microbiota were dominated by Proteobacteria , Bacteroidetes , and Actinobacteria . Warming caused a significant higher relative abundance of members of the Gammaproteobacteria , Actinobacteria , and Firmicutes , and a lower relative abundance of members of the Alphaproteobacteria and Bacteroidetes . Plant beneficial bacteria like Sphingomonas spp. and Rhizobium spp. occurred in significantly lower relative abundance in leaf samples of warmed plots. In contrast, several members of the Enterobacteriaceae , especially Enterobacter and Erwinia , and other potential plant or human pathogenic genera such as Acinetobacter and insect-associated Buchnera and Wolbachia spp. occurred in higher relative abundances in the phyllosphere samples from warmed plots. This study showed for the first time the long-term impact of moderate (+2°C) surface warming on the phyllosphere microbiota on plants. A reduction of beneficial bacteria and an enhancement of potential pathogenic bacteria in the phyllosphere of plants may indicate that this aspect of the ecosystem which has been largely neglected up till now, can be a potential risk for pathogen transmission in agro-ecosystems in the near future.

The Great Lakes' regional climate regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiyama, Noriyuki

For the last couple of decades, the Great Lakes have undergone rapid surface warming. In particular, the magnitude of the summer surface-warming trends of the Great Lakes have been much greater than those of surrounding land (Austin and Colman, 2007). Among the Great Lakes, the deepest Lake Superior exhibited the strongest warming trend in its annual, as well as summer surface water temperature. We find that many aspects of this behavior can be explained in terms of the tendency of deep lakes to exhibit multiple regimes characterized, under the same seasonally varying forcing, by the warmer and colder seasonal cycles exhibiting different amounts of wintertime lake-ice cover and corresponding changes in the summertime lake-surface temperatures. In this thesis, we address the problem of the Great Lakes' warming using one-dimensional lake modeling to interpret diverse observations of the recent lake behavior. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

Century-Long Warming Trends in the Upper Water Column of Lake Tanganyika

PubMed Central

Kraemer, Benjamin M.; Hook, Simon; Huttula, Timo; Kotilainen, Pekka; O’Reilly, Catherine M.; Peltonen, Anu; Plisnier, Pierre-Denis; Sarvala, Jouko; Tamatamah, Rashid; Vadeboncoeur, Yvonne; Wehrli, Bernhard; McIntyre, Peter B.

2015-01-01

Lake Tanganyika, the deepest and most voluminous lake in Africa, has warmed over the last century in response to climate change. Separate analyses of surface warming rates estimated from in situ instruments, satellites, and a paleolimnological temperature proxy (TEX86) disagree, leaving uncertainty about the thermal sensitivity of Lake Tanganyika to climate change. Here, we use a comprehensive database of in situ temperature data from the top 100 meters of the water column that span the lake’s seasonal range and lateral extent to demonstrate that long-term temperature trends in Lake Tanganyika depend strongly on depth, season, and latitude. The observed spatiotemporal variation in surface warming rates accounts for small differences between warming rate estimates from in situ instruments and satellite data. However, after accounting for spatiotemporal variation in temperature and warming rates, the TEX86 paleolimnological proxy yields lower surface temperatures (1.46 °C lower on average) and faster warming rates (by a factor of three) than in situ measurements. Based on the ecology of Thaumarchaeota (the microbes whose biomolecules are involved with generating the TEX86 proxy), we offer a reinterpretation of the TEX86 data from Lake Tanganyika as the temperature of the low-oxygen zone, rather than of the lake surface temperature as has been suggested previously. Our analyses provide a thorough accounting of spatiotemporal variation in warming rates, offering strong evidence that thermal and ecological shifts observed in this massive tropical lake over the last century are robust and in step with global climate change. PMID:26147964

Global warming: Clouds cooled the Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauritsen, Thorsten

2016-12-01

The slow instrumental-record warming is consistent with lower-end climate sensitivity. Simulations and observations now show that changing sea surface temperature patterns could have affected cloudiness and thereby dampened the warming.

Contribution of tropical cyclones to abnormal sea surface temperature warming in the Yellow Sea in December 2004

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Taekyun; Choo, Sung-Ho; Moon, Jae-Hong; Chang, Pil-Hun

2017-12-01

Unusual sea surface temperature (SST) warming occurred over the Yellow Sea (YS) in December 2004. To identify the causes of the abnormal SST warming, we conducted an analysis on atmospheric circulation anomalies induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) and their impacts on upper ocean characteristics using multiple datasets. With the analysis of various datasets, we explored a new aspect of the relationship between TC activity and SST. The results show that there is a significant link between TC activity over the Northwest Pacific (NWP) and SST in the YS. The integrated effect of consecutive TCs activity induces a large-scale atmospheric cyclonic circulation anomaly over the NWP and consequently anomalous easterly winds over the YS and East China Sea. The mechanism of the unusually warm SST in the YS can be explained by considering TCs acting as an important source of Ekman heat transport that results in substantial intrusion of relatively warm surface water into the YS interior. Furthermore, TC-related circulation anomalies contribute to the retention of the resulting warm SST anomalies in the entire YS.

Examination Of A Strong Downslope Warming Wind Event Over The Larsen Ice Shelf In Antarctica Through Modeling And Aircraft Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grosvenor, D. P.; Choularton, T. W.; Gallagher, M. W.; Lachlan-Cope, T. A.; King, J. C.

2009-12-01

The high mountains of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) provide a climatic barrier between the west and east. The east side is generally blocked from the warmer oceanic air of the west and is consequently usually under the influence of colder continental air. On occasion, however, air from the west can cross the barrier in the form of strong winds travelling down the eastern slopes, which are also very warm and dry due to adiabatic descent. They penetrate onto the Larsen ice shelves where they lead to above zero surface temperatures and are therefore likely to encourage surface melting. Crevasse propagation due to the weight of accumulated meltwater is currently thought to have been the major factor in causing the near total disintegration of the Larsen B ice shelf in 2002. In January 2006 the British Antarctic Survey performed an aircraft flight over the Larsen C ice shelf on the east side of the AP, which sampled a strong downslope wind event. Surface flux measurements over the ice shelf suggest that the sensible heat provided by the warm jets would be likely to be negated by latent heat losses from ice ablation. The main cause of any ice melting was likely to be due to shortwave radiation input. However, the warming from the jets is still likely to be important by acting as an on/off control for melting by keeping air temperatures above zero. In addition, the dryness of the winds is likely to prevent cloud cover and thus maximize exposure of the ice shelf to solar energy input. This case study has been modeled using the WRF mesoscale model. The model reproduces the strong downslope winds seen by the aircraft with good comparisons of wind speed and temperature profiles through the wind jets. Further comparisons to surface station data have allowed progress towards achieving the best set up of the model for this case. The modeling agrees with the results of the aircraft study in suggesting that solar radiation input is likely to provide the largest amount of energy for melting of the ice surface. The modeling provides insight into the physics of the downslope winds. They are driven by descent of air from above the mountain. This mechanism is different from that often perceived to occur in the AP region, whereby air from below the mountain crest rises over the obstacle and descends on the lee side. In the latter case, stronger cross-mountain winds lead to a greater likelihood of strong downslope winds. Instead, the situation is one where hydraulic flow over the mountain seems to occur as a symptom of both a low level inversion and gravity wave breaking higher up. These create critical layers so that the fluid depth at the mountain crest is tuned to the wavelength of the gravity waves resulting in the downslope winds. The wavelength depends on wind speed and atmospheric stability. Thus stronger cross mountain winds may not necessarily lead to strong downslope winds, since the wavelength may then be detuned to the fluid depth at the mountain crest.

Effects of experimental water table and temperature manipulations on ecosystem CO2 fluxes in an Alaskan rich fen

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chivers, M.R.; Turetsky, M.R.; Waddington, J.M.; Harden, J.W.; McGuire, A.D.

2009-01-01

Peatlands store 30% of the world's terrestrial soil carbon (C) and those located at northern latitudes are expected to experience rapid climate warming. We monitored growing season carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes across a factorial design of in situ water table (control, drought, and flooded plots) and soil warming (control vs. warming via open top chambers) treatments for 2 years in a rich fen located just outside the Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest in interior Alaska. The drought (lowered water table position) treatment was a weak sink or small source of atmospheric CO2 compared to the moderate atmospheric CO2 sink at our control. This change in net ecosystem exchange was due to lower gross primary production and light-saturated photosynthesis rather than increased ecosystem respiration. The flooded (raised water table position) treatment was a greater CO2 sink in 2006 due largely to increased early season gross primary production and higher light-saturated photosynthesis. Although flooding did not have substantial effects on rates of ecosystem respiration, this water table treatment had lower maximum respiration rates and a higher temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration than the control plot. Surface soil warming increased both ecosystem respiration and gross primary production by approximately 16% compared to control (ambient temperature) plots, with no net effect on net ecosystem exchange. Results from this rich fen manipulation suggest that fast responses to drought will include reduced ecosystem C storage driven by plant stress, whereas inundation will increase ecosystem C storage by stimulating plant growth. ?? 2009 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Local and remote impacts of aerosol species on Indian summer monsoon rainfall in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, A. G.; Guo, L.; Highwood, E.

2016-12-01

The HadGEM2 AGCM is used to determine the most important anthropogenic aerosols in the Indian monsoon using experiments in which observed trends in individual aerosol species are imposed. Sulphur dioxide (SD) emissions are shown to impact rainfall more strongly than black carbon (BC) aerosols, causing reduced rainfall especially over northern India. Significant perturbations due to BC are not noted until its emissions are scaled up in a sensitivity test, resulting in rainfall increases over northern India due to the Elevated Heat Pump mechanism, enhancing convection during the premonsoon and bringing forward the monsoon onset. Secondly, the impact of anthropogenic aerosols is compared to that of increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations and observed sea-surface temperature (SST) warming. The tropospheric temperature gradient driving the monsoon shows weakening when forced by either SD or imposed SST trends. However the observed SST trend is dominated by warming in the deep tropics; when the component of SST trend related to aerosol emissions is removed, further warming is found in the extratropical northern hemisphere that tends to offset monsoon weakening. This suggests caution is needed when using SST forcing as a proxy for greenhouse warming. Finally, aerosol emissions are decomposed into those from the Indian region and those elsewhere, in pairs of experiments with SD and BC. Both local and remote aerosol emissions are found to lead to rainfall changes over India; for SD, remote aerosols contribute around 75% of the rainfall decrease over India, while for BC the remote forcing is even more dominant.

Early warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming.

PubMed

Jarvis, Lauren; McCann, Kevin; Tunney, Tyler; Gellner, Gabriel; Fryxell, John M

2016-09-01

Earth's surface temperatures are projected to increase by ~1-4°C over the next century, threatening the future of global biodiversity and ecosystem stability. While this has fueled major progress in the field of physiological trait responses to warming, it is currently unclear whether routine population monitoring data can be used to predict temperature-induced population collapse. Here, we integrate trait performance theory with that of critical tipping points to test whether early warning signals can be reliably used to anticipate thermally induced extinction events. We find that a model parameterized by experimental growth rates exhibits critical slowing down in the vicinity of an experimentally tested critical threshold, suggesting that dynamical early warning signals may be useful in detecting the potentially precipitous onset of population collapse due to global climate change.

Radiative transfer in a polluted urban planetary boundary layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Viskanta, R.; Johnson, R. O.; Bergstrom, R. W.

1977-01-01

Radiative transfer in a polluted urban atmosphere is studied using a dynamic model. The diurnal nature of radiative transfer for summer conditions is simulated for an urban area 40 km in extent and the effects of various parameters arising in the problem are investigated. The results of numerical computations show that air pollution has the potential of playing a major role in the radiative regime of the urban area. Absorption of solar energy by aerosols in realistic models of urban atmosphere are of the same order of magnitude as that due to water vapor. The predicted effect of the air pollution aerosol in the city is to warm the earth-atmosphere system, and the net effect of gaseous pollutant is to warm the surface and cool the planetary boundary layer, particularly near the top.

Numerical Study of the Role of Microphysical Latent Heating and Surface Heat Fluxes in a Severe Precipitation Event in the Warm Sector over Southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jin-Fang; Wang, Dong-Hai; Liang, Zhao-Ming; Liu, Chong-Jian; Zhai, Guo-Qing; Wang, Hong

2018-02-01

Simulations of the severe precipitation event that occurred in the warm sector over southern China on 08 May 2014 are conducted using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARWv3.5.1) model to investigate the roles of microphysical latent heating and surface heat fluxes during the severe precipitation processes. At first, observations from surface rain gauges and ground-based weather radars are used to evaluate the model outputs. Results show that the spatial distribution of 24-h accumulated precipitation is well reproduced, and the temporal and spatial distributions of the simulated radar reflectivity agree well with the observations. Then, several sensitive simulations are performed with the identical model configurations, except for different options in microphysical latent heating and surface heat fluxes. From the results, one of the significant findings is that the latent heating from warm rain microphysical processes heats the atmosphere in the initial phase of the precipitation and thus convective systems start by self-triggering and self-organizing, despite the fact that the environmental conditions are not favorable to the occurrence of precipitation event at the initial phase. In the case of the severe precipitation event over the warm sector, both warm and ice microphysical processes are active with the ice microphysics processes activated almost two hours later. According to the sensitive results, there is a very weak precipitation without heavy rainfall belt when microphysical latent heating is turned off. In terms of this precipitation event, the warm microphysics processes play significant roles on precipitation intensity, while the ice microphysics processes have effects on the spatial distribution of precipitation. Both surface sensible and latent heating have effects on the precipitation intensity and spatial distribution. By comparison, the surface sensible heating has a strong influence on the spatial distribution of precipitation, and the surface latent heating has only a slight impact on the precipitation intensity. The results indicate that microphysical latent heating might be an important factor for severe precipitation forecast in the warm sector over southern China. Surface sensible heating can have considerable influence on the precipitation spatial distribution and should not be neglected in the case of weak large-scale conditions with abundant water vapor in the warm sector.

Variations of the Arabian Sea nitrogen cycle: trend or decadal variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaye, Birgit; Tim, Rixen; Böll, Anna; Wiggert, Jerry

2015-04-01

Warmer periods of the Holocene have been characterized by a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), especially in the South Asian Monsoon sector, thereby increasing the strength and northward extension of monsoon rains. Marine sediments record increased monsoonal upwelling in the Arabian Sea during such warming periods associated with increased denitrification in the oxygen minimum zone. A similar increase can be expected due to anthropogenic warming as it may have a strong impact on Central Asia where feed-back mechanisms of stronger summer warming such as melting of glaciers and reduced albedo may increase summer monsoon strength and thus upwelling and productivity in the Arabian Sea. Models have so far had difficulties to simulate the ITCZ fluctuation in the monsoon area and to make reasonable predictions of its response to global warming. Recent data analyses showed a decrease of oxygen and an increase of nitrite concentrations in the northern part of the Arabian Sea during the last 50 years which could be related to a strengthening of the summer monsoon. To identify whether recent changes in productivity, sea surface temperatures and denitrification are related to decadal fluctuations or global warming trends, we take a comprehensive, multi-disciplinary approach that makes use of the available remote sensing records, nutrient data, and sediment trap as well as high resolution sedimentary records.

Radiative forcing over the conterminous United States due to contemporary land cover land use albedo change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnes, Christopher; Roy, David P.

2008-01-01

Recently available satellite land cover land use (LCLU) and albedo data are used to study the impact of LCLU change from 1973 to 2000 on surface albedo and radiative forcing for 36 ecoregions covering 43% of the conterminous United States (CONUS). Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow-free broadband albedo values are derived from Landsat LCLU classification maps located using a stratified random sampling methodology to estimate ecoregion estimates of LCLU induced albedo change and surface radiative forcing. The results illustrate that radiative forcing due to LCLU change may be disguised when spatially and temporally explicit data sets are not used. The radiative forcing due to contemporary LCLU albedo change varies geographically in sign and magnitude, with the most positive forcings (up to 0.284 Wm−2) due to conversion of agriculture to other LCLU types, and the most negative forcings (as low as −0.247 Wm−2) due to forest loss. For the 36 ecoregions considered a small net positive forcing (i.e., warming) of 0.012 Wm−2 is estimated.

Linking atmospheric synoptic transport, cloud phase, surface energy fluxes, and sea-ice growth: observations of midwinter SHEBA conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persson, P. Ola G.; Shupe, Matthew D.; Perovich, Don; Solomon, Amy

2017-08-01

Observations from the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) project are used to describe a sequence of events linking midwinter long-range advection of atmospheric heat and moisture into the Arctic Basin, formation of supercooled liquid water clouds, enhancement of net surface energy fluxes through increased downwelling longwave radiation, and reduction in near-surface conductive heat flux loss due to a warming of the surface, thereby leading to a reduction in sea-ice bottom growth. The analyses provide details of two events during Jan. 1-12, 1998, one entering the Arctic through Fram Strait and the other from northeast Siberia; winter statistics extend the results. Both deep, precipitating frontal clouds and post-frontal stratocumulus clouds impact the surface radiation and energy budget. Cloud liquid water, occurring preferentially in stratocumulus clouds extending into the base of the inversion, provides the strongest impact on surface radiation and hence modulates the surface forcing, as found previously. The observations suggest a minimum water vapor threshold, likely case dependent, for producing liquid water clouds. Through responses to the radiative forcing and surface warming, this cloud liquid water also modulates the turbulent and conductive heat fluxes, and produces a thermal wave penetrating into the sea ice. About 20-33 % of the observed variations of bottom ice growth can be directly linked to variations in surface conductive heat flux, with retarded ice growth occurring several days after these moisture plumes reduce the surface conductive heat flux. This sequence of events modulate pack-ice wintertime environmental conditions and total ice growth, and has implications for the annual sea-ice evolution, especially for the current conditions of extensive thinner ice.

Warming early Mars with carbon dioxide clouds that scatter infrared radiation.

PubMed

Forget, F; Pierrehumbert, R T

1997-11-14

Geomorphic evidence that Mars was warm enough to support flowing water about 3.8 billion years ago presents a continuing enigma that cannot be explained by conventional greenhouse warming mechanisms. Model calculations show that the surface of early Mars could have been warmed through a scattering variant of the greenhouse effect, resulting from the ability of the carbon dioxide ice clouds to reflect the outgoing thermal radiation back to the surface. This process could also explain how Earth avoided an early irreversible glaciation and could extend the size of the habitable zone on extrasolar planets around stars.

Comparison of forced-air warming systems with lower body blankets using a copper manikin of the human body.

PubMed

Bräuer, A; English, M J M; Lorenz, N; Steinmetz, N; Perl, T; Braun, U; Weyland, W

2003-01-01

Forced-air warming has gained high acceptance as a measure for the prevention of intraoperative hypothermia. However, data on heat transfer with lower body blankets are not yet available. This study was conducted to determine the heat transfer efficacy of six complete lower body warming systems. Heat transfer of forced-air warmers can be described as follows:[1]Qdot;=h.DeltaT.A where Qdot; = heat transfer [W], h = heat exchange coefficient [W m-2 degrees C-1], DeltaT = temperature gradient between blanket and surface [ degrees C], A = covered area [m2]. We tested the following forced-air warmers in a previously validated copper manikin of the human body: (1) Bair Hugger and lower body blanket (Augustine Medical Inc., Eden Prairie, MN); (2) Thermacare and lower body blanket (Gaymar Industries, Orchard Park, NY); (3) WarmAir and lower body blanket (Cincinnati Sub-Zero Products, Cincinnati, OH); (4) Warm-Gard(R) and lower body blanket (Luis Gibeck AB, Upplands Väsby, Sweden); (5) Warm-Gard and reusable lower body blanket (Luis Gibeck AB); and (6) WarmTouch and lower body blanket (Mallinckrodt Medical Inc., St. Luis, MO). Heat flux and surface temperature were measured with 16 calibrated heat flux transducers. Blanket temperature was measured using 16 thermocouples. DeltaT was varied between -10 and +10 degrees C and h was determined by a linear regression analysis as the slope of DeltaT vs. heat flux. Mean DeltaT was determined for surface temperatures between 36 and 38 degrees C, because similar mean skin temperatures have been found in volunteers. The area covered by the blankets was estimated to be 0.54 m2. Heat transfer from the blanket to the manikin was different for surface temperatures between 36 degrees C and 38 degrees C. At a surface temperature of 36 degrees C the heat transfer was higher (between 13.4 W to 18.3 W) than at surface temperatures of 38 degrees C (8-11.5 W). The highest heat transfer was delivered by the Thermacare system (8.3-18.3 W), the lowest heat transfer was delivered by the Warm-Gard system with the single use blanket (8-13.4 W). The heat exchange coefficient varied between 12.5 W m-2 degrees C-1 and 30.8 W m-2 degrees C-1, mean DeltaT varied between 1.04 degrees C and 2.48 degrees C for surface temperatures of 36 degrees C and between 0.50 degrees C and 1.63 degrees C for surface temperatures of 38 degrees C. No relevant differences in heat transfer of lower body blankets were found between the different forced-air warming systems tested. Heat transfer was lower than heat transfer by upper body blankets tested in a previous study. However, forced-air warming systems with lower body blankets are still more effective than forced-air warming systems with upper body blankets in the prevention of perioperative hypothermia, because they cover a larger area of the body surface.

Simulations of Eurasian winter temperature trends in coupled and uncoupled CFSv2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collow, Thomas W.; Wang, Wanqiu; Kumar, Arun

2018-01-01

Conflicting results have been presented regarding the link between Arctic sea-ice loss and midlatitude cooling, particularly over Eurasia. This study analyzes uncoupled (atmosphere-only) and coupled (ocean-atmosphere) simulations by the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), to examine this linkage during the Northern Hemisphere winter, focusing on the simulation of the observed surface cooling trend over Eurasia during the last three decades. The uncoupled simulations are Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs forced with mean seasonal cycles of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice, using combinations of SST and sea ice from different time periods to assess the role that each plays individually, and to assess the role of atmospheric internal variability. Coupled runs are used to further investigate the role of internal variability via the analysis of initialized predictions and the evolution of the forecast with lead time. The AMIP simulations show a mean warming response over Eurasia due to SST changes, but little response to changes in sea ice. Individual runs simulate cooler periods over Eurasia, and this is shown to be concurrent with a stronger Siberian high and warming over Greenland. No substantial differences in the variability of Eurasian surface temperatures are found between the different model configurations. In the coupled runs, the region of significant warming over Eurasia is small at short leads, but increases at longer leads. It is concluded that, although the models have some capability in highlighting the temperature variability over Eurasia, the observed cooling may still be a consequence of internal variability.

Commensurate comparisons of models with energy budget observations reveal consistent climate sensitivities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armour, K.

2017-12-01

Global energy budget observations have been widely used to constrain the effective, or instantaneous climate sensitivity (ICS), producing median estimates around 2°C (Otto et al. 2013; Lewis & Curry 2015). A key question is whether the comprehensive climate models used to project future warming are consistent with these energy budget estimates of ICS. Yet, performing such comparisons has proven challenging. Within models, values of ICS robustly vary over time, as surface temperature patterns evolve with transient warming, and are generally smaller than the values of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Naively comparing values of ECS in CMIP5 models (median of about 3.4°C) to observation-based values of ICS has led to the suggestion that models are overly sensitive. This apparent discrepancy can partially be resolved by (i) comparing observation-based values of ICS to model values of ICS relevant for historical warming (Armour 2017; Proistosescu & Huybers 2017); (ii) taking into account the "efficacies" of non-CO2 radiative forcing agents (Marvel et al. 2015); and (iii) accounting for the sparseness of historical temperature observations and differences in sea-surface temperature and near-surface air temperature over the oceans (Richardson et al. 2016). Another potential source of discrepancy is a mismatch between observed and simulated surface temperature patterns over recent decades, due to either natural variability or model deficiencies in simulating historical warming patterns. The nature of the mismatch is such that simulated patterns can lead to more positive radiative feedbacks (higher ICS) relative to those engendered by observed patterns. The magnitude of this effect has not yet been addressed. Here we outline an approach to perform fully commensurate comparisons of climate models with global energy budget observations that take all of the above effects into account. We find that when apples-to-apples comparisons are made, values of ICS in models are consistently in good agreement with values of ICS inferred from global energy budget constraints. This suggests that the current generation of coupled climate models are not overly sensitive. However, since global energy budget observations do not constrain ECS, it is less certain whether model ECS values are realistic.

Role of Western Hemisphere Warm Pool in Rapid Climate Changes over the Western North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kug, Jong-Seong; Park, Jae-Heung; An, Soon-Il

2017-04-01

Oceanic states over the western North Pacific (WNP), which is surrounded by heavily populated countries, are closely tied to the lives of the people in East Asia in regards to both climate and socioeconomics. As global warming continues, remarkable increases in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) have been observed in the WNP in recent decades. Here, we show that the SST increase in the western hemisphere warm pool (WHWP), which is the second largest warm pool on the globe, has contributed considerably to the rapid surface warming and sea level rise in the WNP via its remote teleconnection along the Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). State-of-the-art climate models strongly support the role of the WHWP not only on interannual time sales but also in long-term climate projections. We expect that understanding the processes initiated by the WHWP-SST could permit better forecasts of western North Pacific climate and the further development of the socioeconomics of East Asia.

Air Pollution, Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramanathan, V.

2007-12-01

The global build up of greenhouse gases (GHGs), is the most significant environmental issue facing the planet. GHGs warm the surface and the atmosphere with significant implications for, rainfall, retreat of glaciers and sea ice, sea level, among other factors. What is less recognized, however, is a comparably major global problem dealing with air pollution. Until about ten years ago, air pollution was thought to be just an urban or a local problem. But new data have revealed that, due to fast long range transport, air pollution is transported across continents and ocean basins, resulting in trans-oceanic and trans-continental plumes of atmospheric brown clouds (ABCs) containing sub micron size particles, i.e, aerosols. ABCs intercept sunlight by absorbing as well as reflecting it, both of which lead to a large surface dimming. The dimming effect is enhanced further because aerosols nucleate more cloud drops which makes the clouds reflect more solar radiation. While the solar heating at the surface is reduced by aerosols in ABCs, the atmospheric solar heating increases due to soot solar absorption. The net difference between the dimming and the atmospheric solar heating is estimated be negative which contributes to a global cooling effect. The global cooling from this negative ABC forcing may have masked as much as 50% of the warming due to GHGs. We will identify regional and mega-city hot spots of ABCs. Long range transport from these hot spots gives rise to wide spread plumes over the adjacent oceans. Such a pattern of regionally concentrated surface dimming and atmospheric solar heating, accompanied by wide spread dimming over the oceans, gives rise to large regional effects. Only during the last decade, we have begun to comprehend the surprisingly large regional impacts. The large north-south gradient in the ABC dimming has altered the north-south gradients in sea surface temperatures, which in turn has been shown by models to decrease rainfall over the continents. The uncertainties in our understanding of the ABC effects are large, but we are discovering new ways in which human activities are changing the climate and the environment.

Responses of Soil Microbial Communities to Experimental Warming in Alpine Grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

PubMed Central

He, Xingyuan; Liu, Wenjie; Zhao, Qian; Zhao, Lin; Tian, Chunjie

2014-01-01

Global surface temperature is predicted to increase by at least 1.5°C by the end of this century. However, the response of soil microbial communities to global warming is still poorly understood, especially in high-elevation grasslands. We therefore conducted an experiment on three types of alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to study the effect of experimental warming on abundance and composition of soil microbial communities at 0–10 and 10–20 cm depths. Plots were passively warmed for 3 years using open-top chambers and compared to adjacent control plots at ambient temperature. Soil microbial communities were assessed using phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis. We found that 3 years of experimental warming consistently and significantly increased microbial biomass at the 0–10 cm soil depth of alpine swamp meadow (ASM) and alpine steppe (AS) grasslands, and at both the 0–10 and 10–20 cm soil depths of alpine meadow (AM) grasslands, due primarily to the changes in soil temperature, moisture, and plant coverage. Soil microbial community composition was also significantly affected by warming at the 0–10 cm soil depth of ASM and AM and at the 10–20 cm soil depth of AM. Warming significantly decreased the ratio of fungi to bacteria and thus induced a community shift towards bacteria at the 0–10 cm soil depth of ASM and AM. While the ratio of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi to saprotrophic fungi (AMF/SF) was significantly decreased by warming at the 0–10 cm soil depth of ASM, it was increased at the 0–10 cm soil depth of AM. These results indicate that warming had a strong influence on soil microbial communities in the studied high-elevation grasslands and that the effect was dependent on grassland type. PMID:25083904

Analysis of the 2015-16 El Niño Event Using NASA's GEOS Data Assimilation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pawson, S.; Lim, Y. K.; Kovach, R. M.; Vernieres, G.

2016-12-01

The strong El Niño event that occurred in 2015/2016 is analyzed using atmospheric and oceanic analyses produced using the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) systems. A theme of the work is to compare and contrast this event with two other strong El Niños, in 1982/1983 and 1997/1998, that are included in the satellite-data era of the MERRA and MERRA-2 reanalyses produced using the GEOS system. Distribution of the maximum anomalies of tropical sea-surface temperature (SST), precipitation, Walker circulation, and cloud fraction indicate that 2015/2016 is a Central Pacific (CP) El Niño. The event had an early onset compared to the 1997/1998 El Niño, with extremely strong warming and precipitation over the Central Pacific, and was the strongest in terms of central Pacific SST anomalies. The large region of warm temperature anomalies over most of the Pacific and Indian Ocean in the 2015-2016 event were due to the accumulative impacts of the El Niño event along with a positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and a decadal warming trend over the western Pacific, Maritime Continent, and Indian Ocean. The relatively weak development of the 2015/2016 El Niño event over the Eastern Pacific was likely due to weaker westerly wind bursts and Madden-Julian Oscillation during spring, which in 1997/1998 served to drive the warm anomalies further East towards South America, making that event the strongest Eastern Pacific El Niño (in the recent data record). This is reflected in the 2015/2016 event having a shallower thermocline over the Eastern Pacific, with a weaker zonal gradient of sub-surface water temperatures along the equatorial Pacific. The major extra-tropical teleconnections associated with the El Niño in 2015/2016 are at least comparable to those in the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 El Niño events. Specifically, the Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection in 2015/2016 is the strongest of these three El Niño events, leading to larger extra-tropical anomalies of geopotential height, temperature, and precipitation over North America.

Decadal prediction skill using a high-resolution climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monerie, Paul-Arthur; Coquart, Laure; Maisonnave, Éric; Moine, Marie-Pierre; Terray, Laurent; Valcke, Sophie

2017-11-01

The ability of a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (with a horizontal resolution of a quarter of a degree in the ocean and of about 0.5° in the atmosphere) to predict the annual means of temperature, precipitation, sea-ice volume and extent is assessed based on initialized hindcasts over the 1993-2009 period. Significant skill in predicting sea surface temperatures is obtained, especially over the North Atlantic, the tropical Atlantic and the Indian Ocean. The Sea Ice Extent and volume are also reasonably predicted in winter (March) and summer (September). The model skill is mainly due to the external forcing associated with well-mixed greenhouse gases. A decrease in the global warming rate associated with a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is simulated by the model over a suite of 10-year periods when initialized from starting dates between 1999 and 2003. The model ability to predict regional change is investigated by focusing on the mid-90's Atlantic Ocean subpolar gyre warming. The model simulates the North Atlantic warming associated with a meridional heat transport increase, a strengthening of the North Atlantic current and a deepening of the mixed layer over the Labrador Sea. The atmosphere plays a role in the warming through a modulation of the North Atlantic Oscillation: a negative sea level pressure anomaly, located south of the subpolar gyre is associated with a wind speed decrease over the subpolar gyre. This leads to a reduced oceanic heat-loss and favors a northward displacement of anomalously warm and salty subtropical water that both concur to the subpolar gyre warming. We finally conclude that the subpolar gyre warming is mainly triggered by ocean dynamics with a possible contribution of atmospheric circulation favoring its persistence.

Sensitivity of the Tropical Atmosphere Energy Balance to ENSO-Related SST Changes: How Well Can We Quantify Hydrologic and Radiative Responses?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Fitzjarrald, Dan; Sohn, Byung-Ju; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The continuing debate over feedback mechanisms governing tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and tropical climate in general has highlighted the diversity of potential checks and balances within the climate system. Competing feedbacks due to changes in surface evaporation, water vapor, and cloud long- and shortwave radiative properties each may serve critical roles in stabilizing or destabilizing the climate system. It is also intriguing that even those climate variations having origins internal to the climate system-- changes in ocean heat transport for example, apparently require complementary equilibrating effects by changes in atmospheric energy fluxes. Perhaps the best observational evidence of this is the relatively invariant nature of tropically averaged net radiation exiting the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) as measured by broadband satellite sensors over the past two decades. Thus, analyzing how these feedback mechanisms are operating within the context of current interannual variability may offer considerable insight for anticipating future climate change. In this paper we focus on how fresh water and radiative fluxes over the tropical oceans change during ENSO warm and cold events and how these changes affect the tropical energy balance. At present, ENSO remains the most prominent known mode of natural variability at interannual time scales. Although great advances have been made in understanding this phenomenon and realizing prediction skill over the past decade, our ability to document the coupled water and energy changes observationally and to represent them in climate models seems far from settled (Soden, 2000 J Climate). Our analysis makes use a number of data bases, principally those derived from space-based measurements, to explore systematic changes in rainfall, evaporation, and surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes, A reexamination of the Langley 8-Year Surface Radiation Budget data set reveals errors in the surface longwave emission due to use of biased SSTs. Subsequent correction allows subsequent use of this data set along with ERBE TOA fluxes to infer net atmospheric radiative beating. Further analysis of recent rainfall algorithms provides new estimates for precipitation variability in line with interannual evaporation changes inferred from the da Silva, Young, Levitus COADS analysis. The overall results from our analysis suggest an increase (decrease) of the hydrologic cycle during ENSO warm (cold) events at the rate of about 5 Wm-2 per K of SST change. This rate is slightly less than that which would be expected for constant relative humidity over the tropical oceans. Corresponding radiative fluxes seem systematically smaller resulting in a enhanced (suppressed) export of energy from the tropical ocean regions during warm (cold) SST events. Discussion of likely errors due to sampling and measurement strategies are discussed along with their impacts on our conclusions.

Climatology (communication arising): rural land-use change and climate.

PubMed

Trenberth, Kevin E

2004-01-15

Kalnay and Cai claim that urbanization and land-use change have a major effect on the climate in the United States. They used surface temperatures obtained from NCEP/NCAR 50-year reanalyses (NNR) and their difference compared with observed station surface temperatures as the basis for their conclusions, on the grounds that the NNR did not include these anthropogenic effects. However, we note that the NNR also overlooked other factors, such as known changes in clouds and in surface moisture, which are more likely to explain Kalnay and Cai's findings. Although urban heat-island effects are real in cities, direct estimates of the effects of rural land-use change indicate a cooling rather than a warming influence that is due to a greater reflection of sunlight.

Climatology (communication arising): Rural land-use change and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenberth, Kevin E.

2004-01-01

Kalnay and Cai claim that urbanization and land-use change have a major effect on the climate in the United States. They used surface temperatures obtained from NCEP/NCAR 50-year reanalyses (NNR) and their difference compared with observed station surface temperatures as the basis for their conclusions, on the grounds that the NNR did not include these anthropogenic effects. However, we note that the NNR also overlooked other factors, such as known changes in clouds and in surface moisture, which are more likely to explain Kalnay and Cai's findings. Although urban heat-island effects are real in cities, direct estimates of the effects of rural land-use change indicate a cooling rather than a warming influence that is due to a greater reflection of sunlight.

The Ocean Surface Topography Constellation: The Next 15 Years in Satellite Altimetry

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-22

global coverage in 2007 - to estimate changes in volume due to the warming of the oceans. 5.2 Ocean State Estimation Regarding ocean climate analyses...Ocean Observations and Information for Society" Conference (Vol. 2), Venice, Italy, 21-25 September 2009, Hall, J., Harrison D.E. and Stammer , D., Eds...Venice, Italy, 21-25 September 2009, Hall, J„ Harrison D.E. and Stammer , D., Eds., ESA Publication WPP-306, 2010. 8. Balmaseda, M., Alves, O

Arctic Haze: Natural or Pollution

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-08-01

rn wavelength, rs0o; precipitable water in g cm - , iv; Angstrom ~wavelength coefficient, a and column ozone in column cm (STP), 03. Left - Barrow...maximum of total ozone in the Arctic, but there is evidence at the same time of a depletion of surface ozone . 6. Spring is the time when the sun’s...chemical reactions due to high ozone concentrations. d. Association with dynamics of stratospheric warmings (that occur in mid-winter and spring). 6. Cosmic

The Footprint of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation in Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo; Song, Fengfei; Wu, Bo; Chen, Xiaolong

2016-02-01

Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871-2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcings account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO’s cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. The decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.

The Footprint of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation in Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures.

PubMed

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo; Song, Fengfei; Wu, Bo; Chen, Xiaolong

2016-02-17

Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871-2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcings account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO's cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. The decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.

Future increases in Arctic precipitation linked to local evaporation and sea-ice retreat.

PubMed

Bintanja, R; Selten, F M

2014-05-22

Precipitation changes projected for the end of the twenty-first century show an increase of more than 50 per cent in the Arctic regions. This marked increase, which is among the highest globally, has previously been attributed primarily to enhanced poleward moisture transport from lower latitudes. Here we use state-of-the-art global climate models to show that the projected increases in Arctic precipitation over the twenty-first century, which peak in late autumn and winter, are instead due mainly to strongly intensified local surface evaporation (maximum in winter), and only to a lesser degree due to enhanced moisture inflow from lower latitudes (maximum in late summer and autumn). Moreover, we show that the enhanced surface evaporation results mainly from retreating winter sea ice, signalling an amplified Arctic hydrological cycle. This demonstrates that increases in Arctic precipitation are firmly linked to Arctic warming and sea-ice decline. As a result, the Arctic mean precipitation sensitivity (4.5 per cent increase per degree of temperature warming) is much larger than the global value (1.6 to 1.9 per cent per kelvin). The associated seasonally varying increase in Arctic precipitation is likely to increase river discharge and snowfall over ice sheets (thereby affecting global sea level), and could even affect global climate through freshening of the Arctic Ocean and subsequent modulations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Calcareous nannoplankton and foraminiferal response to global Oligocene and Miocene climatic oscillations: a case study from the Western Carpathian segment of the Central Paratethys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holcová, Katarína

2017-06-01

The reactions of foraminiferal and calcareous nannoplankton assemblages to global warming and cooling events in the time intervals of ca. 27 to 19 Ma and 13.5 to 15 Ma (Oligocene and Miocene) were studied in subtropical epicontinental seas influenced by local tectonic and palaeogeographic events (the Central Paratethys). Regardless of these local events, global climatic processes significantly influenced the palaeoenvironment within the marine basin. Warm intervals are characterized by a stable, humid climate and a high-nutrient regime, due primarily to increased continental input of phytodetritus and also locally due to seasonal upwelling. Coarse clastics deposited in a hyposaline environment characterize the marginal part of the basin. Aridification events causing decreased riverine input and consequent nutrient decreases, characterized cold intervals. Apparent seasonality, as well as catastrophic climatic events, induced stress conditions and the expansion of opportunistic taxa. Carbonate production and hypersaline facies characterize the marginal part of the basins. Hypersaline surface water triggered downwelling circulation and mixing of water masses. Decreased abundance or extinction of K-specialists during each cold interval accelerated their speciation in the subsequent warm interval. Local tectonic events led to discordances between local and global sea-level changes (tectonically triggered uplift or subsidence) or to local salt formation (in the rain shadows of newly-created mountains).

Why Hasn't Earth Warmed as Much as Expected?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwartz, Stephen E.; Charlson, Robert J.; Kahn, Ralph A.; Ogren, John A.; Rodhe, Henning

2010-01-01

The observed increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the industrial era is less than 40% of that expected from observed increases in long-lived greenhouse gases together with the best-estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity given by the 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Possible reasons for this warming discrepancy are systematically examined here. The warming discrepancy is found to be due mainly to some combination of two factors: the IPCC best estimate of climate sensitivity being too high and/or the greenhouse gas forcing being partially offset by forcing by increased concentrations of atmospheric aerosols; the increase in global heat content due to thermal disequilibrium accounts for less than 25% of the discrepancy, and cooling by natural temperature variation can account for only about 15 %. Current uncertainty in climate sensitivity is shown to preclude determining the amount of future fossil fuel CO2 emissions that would be compatible with any chosen maximum allowable increase in GMST; even the sign of such allowable future emissions is unconstrained. Resolving this situation, by empirical determination of the earth's climate sensitivity from the historical record over the industrial period or through use of climate models whose accuracy is evaluated by their performance over this period, is shown to require substantial reduction in the uncertainty of aerosol forcing over this period.

Delayed warming hiatus over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Wenling; Hou, Shugui; Hu, Yongyun; Wu, Shuangye

2017-03-01

A reduction in the warming rate for the global surface temperature since the late 1990s has attracted much attention and caused a great deal of controversy. During the same time period, however, most previous studies have reported enhanced warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). In this study we further examined the temperature trend of the TP and surrounding areas based on the homogenized temperature records for the period 1980-2014, we found that for the TP regions lower than 4000 m the warming rate has started to slow down since the late 1990s, a similar pattern consistent with the whole China and the global temperature trend. However, for the TP regions higher than 4000 m, this reduction in warming rate did not occur until the mid-2000s. This delayed warming hiatus could be related to changes in regional radiative, energy, and land surface processes in recent years.

Suppressed midlatitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qigang; Cheng, Luyao; Chan, Duo; Yao, Yonghong; Hu, Haibo; Yao, Ying

2016-03-01

Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heat waves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH midlatitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation(AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH midlatitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.

Causes of global mean surface temperature slowdowns, trends and variations from months to a century, 1891-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Folland, C. K.; Boucher, O.; Colman, A.; Parker, D. E.

2017-12-01

The recent slowdown in the warming of global mean surface temperature (GST) has highlighted the influences of natural variability. This talk discusses reconstructions of the variations of GST down to the monthly time scale since 1891 using monthly forcing data. We show that most of the variations in annual, and to some extent sub-annual, GST since 1891 can be reproduced skillfully from known forcing factors external and internal to the climate system. This includes the slowdown in warming over about 1998-2013 where reconstruction skill is particularly high down to the multi-monthly time scale. The relative contributions of the several key forcing factors to GST continually vary, but most of the net warming since 1891 is reconstructed to be attributable to the net forcing due to increasing greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols. Separate analyses are carried out for three periods of GST slowdown:- 1896-1910, 1941-1976, together with 1998-2013 and some of its sub periods. We also study two periods where strong warming occurred, 1911-1940 and 1977-1997. Comparisons are made with the skill of average GST provided by 40 CMIP5 models. In the recent 1998-2013 slowdown, TSI forcing appears to have caused significant cooling, particularly over 2001-2010. This is additional to well documented cooling effects of an increased frequency of La Nina events, a negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and some increases in volcanic forcing. Although there are short-term features of the GST curve since 1891 that cannot be fully explained, the most serious disagreements between the reconstructions and observations occur in the Second World War, especially in 1944-1945. Here observed near worldwide SSTs may be biased significantly too warm. Despite this, our generally high reconstruction skill is consistent with a good understanding of the multiple causes of observed GST variations and the general veracity of the GST record since 1891.

A wet-geology and cold-climate Mars model: Punctuation of a slow dynamic approach to equilibrium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kargel, J. S.

1993-01-01

It was suggested that Mars may have possessed a relatively warm humid climate and a vigorous hydrological cycle involving meteoric precipitation, oceans, and continental ice sheets. Baker hypothesized that these geologically active conditions may have been repeated several times; each of these dynamic epochs was followed by a collapse of the climate and hydrologic cycle of Mars into essentially current conditions, completing what is termed a 'Baker cycle'. The purpose is to present an endmember possibility that Martian glacial landscapes, including some that were previously considered to have formed under warm climatic conditions, might be explained by processes compatible with an extremely cold surface. Two aspects of hypothesized Martian glacial terrains were cited as favoring a warm climate during Baker cycles: (1) the formation of some landscapes, including possible eskers, tunnel channels, drumlins, and outwash plains, appears to have required liquid water, and (2) a liquid-surfaced ocean was probably necessary to feed the glaciers. The requirement for liquid water, if these features were correctly interpreted, is difficult to avoid; it is entirely possible that a comparatively warm climate was involved, but it is not clear that formation of landforms by wet-based glaciers actually requires a warm climate. Even less certain is the supposed requirement for liquid oceans. Formation of glaciers only requires a source of water or ice to supply an amount of precipitation that exceeds losses due to melting and sublimation. At Martian temperatures precipitation is very low, but so are melting and sublimation, so a large body of ice that is unstable with respect to sublimation may take the role of Earth's oceans in feeding the glaciers. Recent models suggest that even current Martian polar caps, long thought to be static bodies of ice and dust, might actually be slow-moving, cryogenic continental glaciers. Is it possible that subglacial processes beneath cryogenic (but wetbased) ice sheets formed the hypothesized Martian glacial landscapes?

The super greenhouse effect in a warming world: the role of dynamics and thermodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kashinath, Karthik; O'Brien, Travis; Collins, William

2016-04-01

Over warm tropical oceans the increase in greenhouse trapping with increasing SST can be faster than that of the surface emission, resulting in a decrease in clear sky outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere (OLR) when SST increases, also known as the super greenhouse effect (SGE). If the SGE is directly linked to SST changes, there are profound implications for positive climate feedbacks in the tropics. We show that CMIP5 models perform well in simulating the observed clear-sky greenhouse effect in the present day. Using global warming experiments we show that the onset and shutdown SST of the SGE, as well as the magnitude of the SGE, increase as the convective threshold SST increases. To account for an increasing convective threshold SST we use an invariant coordinate for convection proposed in a recent study [Williams et al., GRL (2009)]. However, even after accounting for the increase in tropical SST (by normalizing the SGE by surface emission) and accounting for the increase in the threshold temperature for convection (by using the invariant coordinate) we find that the models predict a distinct increase in the clear-sky greenhouse effect in a warmed world. This suggests that thermodynamics (i.e. SST) plays a crucial role in regulating the increasing clear sky greenhouse effect in a warming world. We use theoretical arguments to estimate this increase in SGE and derive its dependence on SST. Finally, as shown in previous studies, we confirm that the increase in the clear-sky greenhouse effect is primarily due to upper tropospheric moistening. Although the absolute increase in upper tropospheric water vapor is small compared to that of the lower troposphere, since the absorptivity scales with fractional changes in water vapor, the contribution of the upper troposphere is more significant, as shown by Chung et al., PNAS (2014).

Impacts of Snow Darkening by Absorbing Aerosols on Eurasian Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lau, William K M.; Yasunari, Teppei J.; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Koster, Randal D.

2016-01-01

The deposition of absorbing aerosols on snow surfaces reduces snow-albedo and allows snowpack to absorb more sunlight. This so-called snow darkening effect (SDE) accelerates snow melting and leads to surface warming in spring. To examine the impact of SDE on weather and climate during late spring and early summer, two sets of NASA GEOS-5 model simulations with and without SDE are conducted. Results show that SDE-induced surface heating is particularly pronounced in Eurasian regions where significant depositions of dust transported from the North African deserts, and black carbon from biomass burning from Asia and Europe occur. In these regions, the surface heating due to SDE increases surface skin temperature by 3-6 degrees Kelvin near the snowline in spring. Surface energy budget analysis indicates that SDE-induced excess heating is associated with a large increase in surface evaporation, subsequently leading to a significant reduction in soil moisture, and increased risks of drought and heat waves in late spring to early summer. Overall, we find that rainfall deficit combined with SDE-induced dry soil in spring provide favorable condition for summertime heat waves over large regions of Eurasia. Increased frequency of summer heat waves with SDE and the region of maximum increase in heat-wave frequency are found along the snow line, providing evidence that early snowmelt by SDE may increase the risks of extreme summer heat wave. Our results suggest that climate models that do not include SDE may significantly underestimate the effect of global warming over extra-tropical continental regions.

Forcing of global ocean ice models using an atmospheric boundary layer model: assessing consequences for the simulation of the AMOC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abel, R.; Boning, C. W.

2016-02-01

Current practice in ocean-only model simulations is to force the ocean with a prescribed atmospheric state using bulk formulations. This practice provides a strong thermal restoring to the surface ocean with a typical time-scale of one month. In the real ocean a positive feedback (salinity advection) and a negative feedback (temperature advection) are associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The surface branch of the AMOC transports warm and salty (relative to the mean conditions) to the subpolar North Atlantic and mix with the near-surface waters. A strong AMOC would therefore warm the subpolar North Atlantic, decrease deep water formation and also reduce AMOC strength (negative feedback). This negative feedback is diminished due to the surface forcing formulation and makes the system excessively sensitive to details in the freshwater fluxes . Instead, additional and unrealistic Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) restoring is applied. There have been several suggestions during the last 20 years for at least partially alleviating the problem. This includes some simplified model of the atmospheric mixed layer (AML) (CheapAML; Deremble et al., 2013) with prescribed winds which allows some feedback of SST anomalies on the near-surface air temperature and humidity needed to calculate the turbulent surface fluxes. We show that if the turbulent heat fluxes are modelled by the simple AML model net-fluxes get more realistic. Commonly ocean models experience an AMOC slowdown if SSS restoring is turned off. In the new system (ORCA05 with turbulent fluxes from CheapAML) this slowdown can be eliminated.

Studies of climate dynamics with innovative global-model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Xiaoming

Climate simulations with different degrees of idealization are essential for the development of our understanding of the climate system. Studies in this dissertation employ carefully designed global-model simulations for the goal of gaining theoretical and conceptual insights into some problems of climate dynamics. Firstly, global warming-induced changes in extreme precipitation are investigated using a global climate model with idealized geography. The precipitation changes over an idealized north-south mid-latitude mountain barrier at the western margin of an otherwise flat continent are studied. The intensity of the 40 most intense events on the western slopes increases by about ~4°C of surface warming. In contrast, the intensity of the top 40 events on the eastern mountain slopes increases at about ~6°C. This higher sensitivity is due to enhanced ascent during the eastern-slope events, which can be explained in terms of linear mountain-wave theory relating to global warming-induced changes in the upper-tropospheric static stability and the tropopause level. Dominated by different dynamical factors, changes in the intensity of extreme precipitation events over plains and oceans might differ from changes over mountains. So the response of extreme precipitation over mountains and flat areas are further compared using larger data sets of simulated extreme events over the two types of surfaces. It is found that the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to increases in global mean surface temperature is 3% per °C lower over mountains than over the oceans or the plains. The difference in sensitivity among these regions is not due to thermodynamic effects, but rather to differences between the gravity-wave dynamics governing vertical velocities over the mountains and the cyclone dynamics governing vertical motions over the oceans and plains. The strengthening of latent heating in the storms over oceans and plains leads to stronger ascent in the warming climate. Motivated by the fact that natural variability of the atmosphere could obscure the signal of anthropogenic warming on time scales of years to decades, the large scale variability of the atmosphere is also studied. Analysis using simulations in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble project reveals that the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) does not have a stable spatial pattern when 50-year long segments of data are used to calculate it. Some segments of data result in NAM-like variability with a very strong North Pacific center of action, while in some others it exhibits a more symmetric structure, with North Pacific and Euro-Atlantic centers of comparable strength. Perhaps somewhat puzzling, the NAM's North Pacific center of action is found to have a strengthening trend under anthropogenic warming. Lastly, the large-scale character of an atmosphere in rotating Radiative-Convective Equilibrium (RCE) is studied, using a global atmospheric model with prescribed globally uniform sea surface temperature and no insolation. In such an equilibrium state, numerous tropical cyclone-like vortices develop in the extratropics, which move slowly poleward and westward. The typical spacing of simulated tropical cyclone-like vortices is comparable to the Rossby radius of deformation, while the production of available potential energy is at a scale slightly smaller than that of the vortices. It is hypothesized that the growth of tropical cyclone-like vortices is driven by the self-aggregation of convection, while baroclinic instability destabilizes any vortices that grow significantly larger than the deformation radius. A weak Hadley circulation dominates in the deep tropics, and an eastward-propagating wavenumber one MJO-like mode with a period of 30 to 40 days develops along the equator.

Relative contributions of external forcing factors to circulation and hydrographic properties in a micro-tidal bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Seokjin; Kasai, Akihide

2017-11-01

The dominant external forcing factors influencing estuarine circulation differ among coastal environments. A three-dimensional regional circulation model was developed to estimate external influence indices and relative contributions of external forcing factors such as external oceanic forcing, surface heat flux, wind stress, and river discharge to circulation and hydrographic properties in Tango Bay, Japan. Model results show that in Tango Bay, where the Tsushima Warm Current passes offshore of the bay, under conditions of strong seasonal winds and river discharge, the water temperature and salinity are strongly influenced by surface heat flux and river discharge in the surface layer, respectively, while in the middle and bottom layers both are mainly controlled by open boundary conditions. The estuarine circulation is comparably influenced by all external forcing factors, the strong current, surface heat flux, wind stress, and river discharge. However, the influence degree of each forcing factor varies with temporal variations in external forcing factors as: the influence of open boundary conditions is higher in spring and early summer when the stronger current passes offshore of the bay, that of surface heat flux reflects the absolute value of surface heat flux, that of wind stress is higher in late fall and winter due to strong seasonal winds, and that of river discharge is higher in early spring due to snow-melting and summer and early fall due to flood events.

Potential impacts of global warming on water resources in southern California.

PubMed

Beuhler, M

2003-01-01

Global warming will have a significant impact on water resources within the 20 to 90-year planning period of many water projects. Arid and semi-arid regions such as Southern California are especially vulnerable to anticipated negative impacts of global warming on water resources. Long-range water facility planning must consider global climate change in the recommended mix of new facilities needed to meet future water requirements. The generally accepted impacts of global warming include temperature, rising sea levels, more frequent and severe floods and droughts, and a shift from snowfall to rain. Precipitation changes are more difficult to predict. For Southern California, these impacts will be especially severe on surface water supplies. Additionally, rising sea levels will exacerbate salt-water intrusion into freshwater and impact the quality of surface water supplies. Integrated water resources planning is emerging as a tool to develop water supplies and demand management strategies that are less vulnerable to the impacts of global warming. These tools include water conservation, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater and desalination of brackish water and possibly seawater. Additionally, planning for future water needs should include explicit consideration of the potential range of global warming impacts through techniques such as scenario planning.

Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year.

PubMed

Steig, Eric J; Schneider, David P; Rutherford, Scott D; Mann, Michael E; Comiso, Josefino C; Shindell, Drew T

2009-01-22

Assessments of Antarctic temperature change have emphasized the contrast between strong warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and slight cooling of the Antarctic continental interior in recent decades. This pattern of temperature change has been attributed to the increased strength of the circumpolar westerlies, largely in response to changes in stratospheric ozone. This picture, however, is substantially incomplete owing to the sparseness and short duration of the observations. Here we show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. West Antarctic warming exceeds 0.1 degrees C per decade over the past 50 years, and is strongest in winter and spring. Although this is partly offset by autumn cooling in East Antarctica, the continent-wide average near-surface temperature trend is positive. Simulations using a general circulation model reproduce the essential features of the spatial pattern and the long-term trend, and we suggest that neither can be attributed directly to increases in the strength of the westerlies. Instead, regional changes in atmospheric circulation and associated changes in sea surface temperature and sea ice are required to explain the enhanced warming in West Antarctica.

Formation of well-mixed warm water column in central Bohai Sea during summer: Role of high-frequency atmospheric forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Weiwei; Wan, Xiuquan; Wang, Zhankun; Liu, Yulong; Wan, Kai

2017-12-01

The influence of high-frequency atmospheric forcing on the formation of a well-mixed summer warm water column in the central Bohai Sea is investigated comparing model simulations driven by daily surface forcing and those using monthly forcing data. In the absence of high-frequency atmospheric forcing, numerical simulations have repeatedly failed to reproduce this vertically uniform column of warm water measured over the past 35 years. However, high-frequency surface forcing is found to strongly influence the structure and distribution of the well-mixed warm water column, and simulations are in good agreement with observations. Results show that high frequency forcing enhances vertical mixing over the central bank, intensifies downward heat transport, and homogenizes the water column to form the Bohai central warm column. Evidence presented shows that high frequency forcing plays a dominant role in the formation of the well-mixed warm water column in summer, even without the effects of tidal and surface wave mixing. The present study thus provides a practical and rational way of further improving the performance of oceanic simulations in the Bohai Sea and can be used to adjust parameterization schemes of ocean models.

Global warming 2007. An update to global warming: the balance of evidence and its policy implications.

PubMed

Keller, Charles F

2007-03-09

In the four years since my original review (Keller[25]; hereafter referred to as CFK03), research has clarified and strengthened our understanding of how humans are warming the planet. So many of the details highlighted in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report[21] and in CFK03 have been resolved that I expect many to be a bit overwhelmed, and I hope that, by treating just the most significant aspects of the research, this update may provide a road map through the expected maze of new information. In particular, while most of CFK03 remains current, there are important items that have changed: Most notable is the resolution of the conundrum that mid-tropospheric warming did not seem to match surface warming. Both satellite and radiosonde (balloon-borne sensors) data reduction showed little warming in the middle troposphere (4-8 km altitude). In the CFK03 I discussed potential solutions to this problem, but at that time there was no clear resolution. This problem has now been solved, and the middle troposphere is seen to be warming apace with the surface. There have also been advances in determinations of temperatures over the past 1,000 years showing a cooler Little Ice Age (LIA) but essentially the same warming during medieval times (not as large as recent warming). The recent uproar over the so-called "hockey stick" temperature determination is much overblown since at least seven other groups have made relatively independent determinations of northern hemisphere temperatures over the same time period and derived essentially the same results. They differ on how cold the LIA was but essentially agree with the Mann's hockey stick result that the Medieval Warm Period was not as warm as the last 25 years. The question of the sun's influence on climate continues to generate controversy. It appears there is a growing consensus that, while the sun was a major factor in earlier temperature variations, it is incapable of having caused observed warming in the past quarter century or so. However, this conclusion is being challenged by differing interpretations of satellite observations of Total Solar Insolation (TSI). Different satellites give different estimates of TSI during the 1996-7 solar activity minimum. A recent study using the larger TSI satellite interpretation indicates a stronger role for the sun, and until there is agreement on TSI at solar minimum, we caution completely disregarding the sun as a significant factor in recent warming. Computer models continue to improve and, while they still do not do a satisfactory job of predicting regional changes, their simulations of global aspects of climate change and of individual forcings are increasingly reliable. In addition to these four areas, the past five years have seen advances in our understanding of many other aspects of climate change--from albedo changes due to land use to the dynamics of glacier movement. However, these more are of second order importance and will only be treated very briefly. The big news since CFK03 is the first of these, the collapse of the climate critics' last real bastion, namely that satellites and radiosondes show no significant warming in the past quarter century. Figuratively speaking, this was the center pole that held up the critics' entire "tent." Their argument was that, if there had been little warming in the past 25 years or so, then what warming was observed would have been within the range of natural variations with solar forcing as the major player. Further, the models would have been shown to be unreliable since they were predicting warming that was not happening. But now both satellite and in-situ radiosonde observations have been shown to corroborate both the surface observations of warming and the model predictions. Thus, while uncertainties still remain, we are now seeing a coherent picture in which past climate variations, solar and other forcings, model predictions and other indicators such as glacier recession all point to a human-induced warming that needs to be considered carefully. A final topic touched on briefly here is the new understanding of the phenomenon called "global dimming." Several sets of observations of the sun's total radiation at the surface have shown that there has been a reduction in sunlight reaching it. This has been related to the scattering of sunlight by aerosols and has led to a better quantification of the possibility that cleaning up our atmospheric pollution will lead to greater global warming. Adding all these advances together, there is a growing consensus that the 21st century will indeed see some 2 degrees C (3.5 degrees F) or more in additional warming. This is corroborated in the new IPCC Assessment, an early release of which is touched on very briefly here.

Seasonality of coastal upwelling trends under future warming scenarios along the southern limit of the canary upwelling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Magda Catarina; Alvarez, Ines; deCastro, Maite; Gomez-Gesteira, Moncho; Dias, João Miguel

2017-04-01

The Canary Upwelling Ecosystem (CUE) is one of the four most important upwelling sites around the world in terms of primary production, with coastal upwelling mostly a year-round phenomenon south of 30°N. Based on annual future projections, several previous studies indicated that global warming will intensify coastal upwelling in the northern region and will induce its weakening at the southernmost latitudes. However, analysis of historical data, showed that coastal upwelling depends on the length of the time series, the season, and even the database used. Thus, despite previous efforts, an overall detailed description of seasonal upwelling trends and their effects on sea surface temperature (SST) along the Canary coast over the 21st century remains unclear. To address this issue, several regional and global wind and SST climate models from CORDEX and CMIP5 projects for the period 1976-2099 were analyzed. This research provides new insights about coastal upwelling trends under future warming scenarios for the CUE, with results showing opposite patterns for upwelling index (UI) trends depending on the season. A weakening of the UI occurs from May to August all along the coast, whereas it increases from October to April. Analysis of SST trends reveals a general warming throughout the area, although the warming rate is considerably lower near the shore than at open ocean locations due to coastal upwelling effects. In addition, SST projections show higher warming rates from May to August than from October to April in response to the future decreasing trend in the UI during the summer months.

Recent Global Warming As Depicted by AIRS, GISSTEMP, and MERRA-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susskind, J.; Iredell, L. F.; Lee, J. N.

2017-12-01

We observed anomalously warm global mean surface temperatures since 2015. The year 2016 represents the warmest annual mean surface skin and surface air temperatures in the AIRS observational period, September 2002 through August 2017. Additionally, AIRS monthly mean surface skin temperature, from January 2016 through September 2016, and November 2016, were the warmest observed for each month of the year. Continuing this trend, the AIRS global surface temperatures of 2017 February and April show the second greatest positive anomalies from average. This recent warming is particularly significant over the Arctic where the snow and sea ice melt is closely tied to the spring and summer surface temperatures. In this paper, we show the global distribution of surface temperature anomalies as observed by AIRS over the period September 2002 through August 2017 and compare them with those from the GISSTEMP and MERRA-2 surface temperatures. The spatial patterns of warm and cold anomalies for a given month show reasonably good agreement in all three data set. AIRS anomalies, which do not have the benefit of in-situ measurements, are in almost perfect agreement with those of MERRA-2, which does use in-situ surface measurements. GISSTEMP anomaly patterns for the most part look similar to those of AIRS and MERRA-2, but are more spread out spatially, and consequently are also weaker.

Evaluating Arctic warming mechanisms in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franzke, Christian L. E.; Lee, Sukyoung; Feldstein, Steven B.

2017-05-01

Arctic warming is one of the most striking signals of global warming. The Arctic is one of the fastest warming regions on Earth and constitutes, thus, a good test bed to evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce the physics and dynamics involved in Arctic warming. Different physical and dynamical mechanisms have been proposed to explain Arctic amplification. These mechanisms include the surface albedo feedback and poleward sensible and latent heat transport processes. During the winter season when Arctic amplification is most pronounced, the first mechanism relies on an enhancement in upward surface heat flux, while the second mechanism does not. In these mechanisms, it has been proposed that downward infrared radiation (IR) plays a role to a varying degree. Here, we show that the current generation of CMIP5 climate models all reproduce Arctic warming and there are high pattern correlations—typically greater than 0.9—between the surface air temperature (SAT) trend and the downward IR trend. However, we find that there are two groups of CMIP5 models: one with small pattern correlations between the Arctic SAT trend and the surface vertical heat flux trend (Group 1), and the other with large correlations (Group 2) between the same two variables. The Group 1 models exhibit higher pattern correlations between Arctic SAT and 500 hPa geopotential height trends, than do the Group 2 models. These findings suggest that Arctic warming in Group 1 models is more closely related to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation, whereas in Group 2, the albedo feedback effect plays a more important role. Interestingly, while Group 1 models have a warm or weak bias in their Arctic SAT, Group 2 models show large cold biases. This stark difference in model bias leads us to hypothesize that for a given model, the dominant Arctic warming mechanism and trend may be dependent on the bias of the model mean state.

Effects of experimental warming and elevated CO2 on surface methane and CO­2 fluxes from a boreal black spruce peatland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, A. L.; Finzi, A.; Hsieh, I. F.; Giasson, M. A.

2016-12-01

High latitude peatlands represent a major terrestrial carbon store sensitive to climate change, as well as a globally significant methane source. While elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and warming temperatures may increase peat respiration and C losses to the atmosphere, reductions in peatland water tables associated with increased growing season evapotranspiration may alter the nature of trace gas emission and increase peat C losses as CO2 relative to methane (CH4). As CH4 is a greenhouse gas with twenty times the warming potential of CO2, it is critical to understand how surface fluxes of CO2 and CH4 will be influenced by factors associated with global climate change. We used automated soil respiration chambers to assess the influence of elevated atmospheric CO2 and whole ecosystem warming on peatland CH4 and CO2 fluxes at the SPRUCE (Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change) Experiment in northern Minnesota. Here we report soil iCO2 and iCH4 flux responses to the first year of belowground warming and the first season of whole ecosystem warming and elevated CO2 treatments. We find that peat methane fluxes are more sensitive to warming treatments than peat CO2 fluxes, particularly in hollow peat microforms. Surface CO2:CH4 flux ratios decreased across warming treatments, suggesting that the temperature sensitivity of methane production overshadows the effect of peat drying and surface aeration in the short term. δ13C of the emitted methane was more depleted in the early and late growing season, indicating a transition from hydrogenotrophic to acetoclastic methanogenesis during periods of high photosynthetic input. The measurement record demonstrates that belowground warming has measureable impacts on the nature of peat greenhouse gas emission within one year of treatment.

Chapter 8: Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wehner, M. F.; Arnold, J. R.; Knutson, T.; Kunkel, K. E.; LeGrande, A. N.

2017-01-01

Recent droughts and associated heat waves have reached record intensity in some regions of the United States; however, by geographical scale and duration, the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s remains the benchmark drought and extreme heat event in the historical record (very high confidence). While by some measures drought has decreased over much of the continental United States in association with long-term increases in precipitation, neither the precipitation increases nor inferred drought decreases have been confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. The human effect on recent major U.S. droughts is complicated. Little evidence is found for a human influence on observed precipitation deficits, but much evidence is found for a human influence on surface soil moisture deficits due to increased evapotranspiration caused by higher temperatures. Future decreases in surface (top 10 cm) soil moisture from anthropogenic forcing over most of the United States are likely as the climate warms under higher scenarios. Substantial reductions in western U.S. winter and spring snowpack are projected as the climate warms. Earlier spring melt and reduced snow water equivalent have been formally attributed to human-induced warming (high confidence) and will very likely be exacerbated as the climate continues to warm (very high confidence). Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible by the end of this century. Detectable changes in some classes of flood frequency have occurred in parts of the United States and are a mix of increases and decreases. Extreme precipitation, one of the controlling factors in flood statistics, is observed to have generally increased and is projected to continue to do so across the United States in a warming atmosphere. However, formal attribution approaches have not established a significant connection of increased riverine flooding to human-induced climate change, and the timing of any emergence of a future detectable anthropogenic change in flooding is unclear. The incidence of large forest fires in the western United States and Alaska has increased since the early 1980s and is projected to further increase in those regions as the climate warms, with profound changes to certain ecosystems.

Climate-induced warming of lakes can be either amplified or suppressed by trends in water clarity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rose, Kevin C.; Winslow, Luke A.; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.

2016-01-01

Climate change is rapidly warming aquatic ecosystems including lakes and reservoirs. However, variability in lake characteristics can modulate how lakes respond to climate. Water clarity is especially important both because it influences the depth range over which heat is absorbed, and because it is changing in many lakes. Here, we show that simulated long-term water clarity trends influence how both surface and bottom water temperatures of lakes and reservoirs respond to climate change. Clarity changes can either amplify or suppress climate-induced warming, depending on lake depth and the direction of clarity change. Using a process-based model to simulate 1894 north temperate lakes from 1979 to 2012, we show that a scenario of decreasing clarity at a conservative yet widely observed rate of 0.92% yr−1 warmed surface waters and cooled bottom waters at rates comparable in magnitude to climate-induced warming. For lakes deeper than 6.5 m, decreasing clarity was sufficient to fully offset the effects of climate-induced warming on median whole-lake mean temperatures. Conversely, a scenario increasing clarity at the same rate cooled surface waters and warmed bottom waters relative to baseline warming rates. Furthermore, in 43% of lakes, increasing clarity more than doubled baseline bottom temperature warming rates. Long-term empirical observations of water temperature in lakes with and without clarity trends support these simulation results. Together, these results demonstrate that water clarity trends may be as important as rising air temperatures in determining how waterbodies respond to climate change.

Acidification at the Surface in the East Sea: A Coupled Climate-carbon Cycle Model Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Young-Gyu; Seol, Kyung-Hee; Boo, Kyung-On; Lee, Johan; Cho, Chunho; Byun, Young-Hwa; Seo, Seongbong

2018-05-01

This modeling study investigates the impacts of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration on acidification in the East Sea. A historical simulation for the past three decades (1980 to 2010) was performed using the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (version 2), a coupled climate model with atmospheric, terrestrial and ocean cycles. As the atmospheric CO2 concentration increased, acidification progressed in the surface waters of the marginal sea. The acidification was similar in magnitude to observations and models of acidification in the global ocean. However, in the global ocean, the acidification appears to be due to increased in-situ oceanic CO2 uptake, whereas local processes had stronger effects in the East Sea. pH was lowered by surface warming and by the influx of water with higher dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the northwestern Pacific. Due to the enhanced advection of DIC, the partial pressure of CO2 increased faster than in the overlying air; consequently, the in-situ oceanic uptake of CO2 decreased.

Was Early Mars Warmed by CH4?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Justh, H. L.; Kasting, J. F.

2001-12-01

Images from the Mariner, Viking and Mars Global Surveyor missions have shown geologic features on the Martian surface that seem to indicate an earlier period of hydrologic activity. Many researchers have suggested that the early Martian climate was more Earth-like with a Ts of 273 K or higher. The presence of liquid water would require a greenhouse effect much larger than needed at present since S0 is 25% lower 3.8 billion years ago when the channels are thought to have formed. Research into the effects of CO2 clouds upon the climate of early Mars have yielded results that would not effectively warm the surface to the temperature needed to account for the presence of liquid water. Forget and Pierrehumbert (Science, 1997) showed that large crystals of CO2 ice in clouds that form in the upper troposphere would produce a strong warming effect. Obtaining mean surface temperatures above 273 K would require 100% cloud cover, a condition that is unrealistic for early Mars. It has also been shown that any reduction in cloud cover makes it difficult to achieve warm Martian surface temperatures except at high pressures. CO2 clouds could also cool the Martian surface if they were low and optically thick. CO2 ice may be hard to nucleate, leading to the formation of very large particles (Glandorf, private communication). CH4 has been suggested as an important greenhouse gas on the early Earth. This has led us to look at CH4 as a potential solution to the early Mars climate issue. To investigate the possible warming effect of CH4, we utilized a modified, one-dimensional, radiative-convective climate model that has been used in previous studies of the early Martian climate. New calculations of the effects of CH4 upon the early Martian climate will be presented. The use of CH4 to warm the surface of early Mars does not necessarily imply the presence of life on Mars. Abiotic sources of CH4, such as serpentinization of ultramafic rocks, could supply the concentrations needed to warm the surface.

Enhanced greenhouse gas emissions from the Arctic with experimental warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, Carolina; Lamprecht, Richard E.; Marushchak, Maija E.; Lind, Saara E.; Novakovskiy, Alexander; Aurela, Mika; Martikainen, Pertti J.; Biasi, Christina

2017-04-01

Temperatures in the Arctic are projected to increase more rapidly than in lower latitudes. With temperature being a key factor for regulating biogeochemical processes in ecosystems, even a subtle temperature increase might promote the release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere. Usually, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are the GHGs dominating the climatic impact of tundra. However, bare, patterned ground features in the Arctic have recently been identified as hot spots for nitrous oxide (N2O). N2O is a potent greenhouse gas, which is almost 300 times more effective in its global warming potential than CO2; but studies on arctic N2O fluxes are rare. In this study we examined the impact of temperature increase on the seasonal GHG balance of all three important GHGs (CO2, CH4 and N2O) from three tundra surface types (vegetated peat soils, unvegetated peat soils, upland mineral soils) in the Russian Arctic (67˚ 03' N 62˚ 55' E), during the course of two growing seasons. We deployed open-top chambers (OTCs), inducing air and soil surface warming, thus mimicking predicted warming scenarios. We combined detailed CO2, CH4 and N2O flux studies with concentration measurements of these gases within the soil profile down to the active layer-permafrost interface, and complemented these GHG measurements with detailed soil nutrient (nitrate and ammonium) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) measurements in the soil pore water profile. In our study, gentle air warming (˜1.0 ˚ C) increased the seasonal GHG release of all dominant surface types: the GHG budget of vegetated peat and mineral soils, which together cover more than 80 % of the land area in our study region, shifted from a sink to a source of -300 to 144 g CO2-eq m-2 and from -198 to 105 g CO2-eq m-2, respectively. While the positive warming response was governed by CO2, we provide here the first in situ evidence that warming increases arctic N2O emissions: Warming did not only enhance N2O emissions from the known arctic N2O hot spots (bare peat soils; maximum seasonal release with warming: 87 mg N2O m-2), but also from the vegetated peat surfaces, not emitting N2O under present climate. These surfaces showed signs of a hampered plant growth, leading to reduced soil N uptake with warming, indicating that plants are regulating arctic N2O emissions. The warming treatment was limited to temperature of air and upper soil surface, and did not alter thaw depth. Nonetheless, we observed a clear increase of all three GHGs deep in the soil profile, and attribute this to downward leaching of labile organic substances from the surface soil and/or plants, fueling microbial activity at depth. Our study thus highlights the tight interlinkage between the surface soil, vegetation, and deeper soil layers, which could lead to losses of all three GHGs, including N2O, with subtle temperature increase. We therefore emphasize that indirect effects caused by warming, such as leaching processes, as well as arctic N2O emissions, need to be taken into account when attempting to project feedbacks between the arctic and the global climate system.

Coastal warming and wind-driven upwelling: A global analysis.

PubMed

Varela, Rubén; Lima, Fernando P; Seabra, Rui; Meneghesso, Claudia; Gómez-Gesteira, Moncho

2018-10-15

Long-term sea surface temperature (SST) warming trends are far from being homogeneous, especially when coastal and ocean locations are compared. Using data from NOAA's AVHRR OISST, we have analyzed sea surface temperature trends over the period 1982-2015 at around 3500 worldwide coastal points and their oceanic counterparts with a spatial resolution of 0.25 arc-degrees. Significant warming was observed at most locations although with important differences between oceanic and coastal points. This is especially patent for upwelling regions, where 92% of the coastal locations showed lower warming trends than at neighboring ocean locations. This result strongly suggests that upwelling has the potential to buffer the effects of global warming nearshore, with wide oceanographic, climatic, and biogeographic implications. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of NASA GEOS-ADAS Modeled Diurnal Warming Through Comparisons to SEVIRI and AMSR2 SST Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gentemann, C. L.; Akella, S.

2018-02-01

An analysis of the ocean skin Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has been included in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) - Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS), Version 5 (GEOS-ADAS). This analysis is based on the GEOS atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) that simulates near-surface diurnal warming and cool skin effects. Analysis for the skin SST is performed along with the atmospheric state, including Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite radiance observations as part of the data assimilation system. One month (September, 2015) of GEOS-ADAS SSTs were compared to collocated satellite Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) SSTs to examine how the GEOS-ADAS diurnal warming compares to the satellite measured warming. The spatial distribution of warming compares well to the satellite observed distributions. Specific diurnal events are analyzed to examine variability within a single day. The dependence of diurnal warming on wind speed, time of day, and daily average insolation is also examined. Overall the magnitude of GEOS-ADAS warming is similar to the warming inferred from satellite retrievals, but several weaknesses in the GEOS-AGCM simulated diurnal warming are identified and directly related back to specific features in the formulation of the diurnal warming model.

Seasonality of change: Summer warming rates do not fully represent effects of climate change on lake temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winslow, Luke; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Rose, Kevin C.; Robertson, Dale M.

2017-01-01

Responses in lake temperatures to climate warming have primarily been characterized using seasonal metrics of surface-water temperatures such as summertime or stratified period average temperatures. However, climate warming may not affect water temperatures equally across seasons or depths. We analyzed a long-term dataset (1981–2015) of biweekly water temperature data in six temperate lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. to understand (1) variability in monthly rates of surface- and deep-water warming, (2) how those rates compared to summertime average trends, and (3) if monthly heterogeneity in water temperature trends can be predicted by heterogeneity in air temperature trends. Monthly surface-water temperature warming rates varied across the open-water season, ranging from 0.013 in August to 0.073°C yr−1 in September (standard deviation [SD]: 0.025°C yr−1). Deep-water trends during summer varied less among months (SD: 0.006°C yr−1), but varied broadly among lakes (–0.056°C yr−1 to 0.035°C yr−1, SD: 0.034°C yr−1). Trends in monthly surface-water temperatures were well correlated with air temperature trends, suggesting monthly air temperature trends, for which data exist at broad scales, may be a proxy for seasonal patterns in surface-water temperature trends during the open water season in lakes similar to those studied here. Seasonally variable warming has broad implications for how ecological processes respond to climate change, because phenological events such as fish spawning and phytoplankton succession respond to specific, seasonal temperature cues.

The Vorticity Budgets of North Atlantic Winter Marine Extratropical Cyclones Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azad, R.; Sorteberg, A.

2012-12-01

A partitioned form of the Zwack-Okossi (Z-O) tendency equation is employed to examine the composite role of dynamic and thermodynamic forcing mechanisms to the development of North Atlantic winter marine extratropical cyclones. The results provide a further insight into the budgets of near surface cyclonic geostrophic vorticity (CGV) and their evolution during the life cycle of mid-latitude low pressure systems. Of interest are the direct, indirect and net effects of the Z-O forcing mechanisms. The direct effect shows the contribution of each process to the near surface geostrophic vorticity tendency, while the indirect effect implies the contribution from the associated vertical motion and resulting adiabatic cooling or warming. The net effect is the sum of the direct and indirect effects.We found that the vorticity advection term is the largest net contributor to the development of the marine cyclones. The net positive effect of both the temperature advection and latent heating terms is smaller owing to the induced adiabatic cooling which reduces the positive direct contributions. The direct and indirect parts of ageostrophic tendency and friction terms support each other, resulting in significant net contributions at the low center.Comparisons of the composite contributions by the Z-O forcing terms at different pressure levels over the low center indicate that, in agreement with previous studies, the commencement of significant development is accompanied with the upper level cyclonic absolute vorticity advection, upper level warm advection and mid-to low level latent heating. However, during the end of the development, mid-tropospheric net contribution by vorticity advection term and low level warm advection controls the production of CGV. The former is due to both the presence of mid-level cyclonic vorticity advection and induced adiabatic warming over the composite low center.

Multidecadal trends in aerosol radiative forcing over the Arctic: Contribution of changes in anthropogenic aerosol to Arctic warming since 1980

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breider, Thomas J.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Ge, Cui; Wang, Jun; Payer Sulprizio, Melissa; Croft, Betty; Ridley, David A.; McConnell, Joseph R.; Sharma, Sangeeta; Husain, Liaquat; Dutkiewicz, Vincent A.; Eleftheriadis, Konstantinos; Skov, Henrik; Hopke, Phillip K.

2017-03-01

Arctic observations show large decreases in the concentrations of sulfate and black carbon (BC) aerosols since the early 1980s. These near-term climate-forcing pollutants perturb the radiative balance of the atmosphere and may have played an important role in recent Arctic warming. We use the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model to construct a 3-D representation of Arctic aerosols that is generally consistent with observations and their trends from 1980 to 2010. Observations at Arctic surface sites show significant decreases in sulfate and BC mass concentrations of 2-3% per year. We find that anthropogenic aerosols yield a negative forcing over the Arctic, with an average 2005-2010 Arctic shortwave radiative forcing (RF) of -0.19 ± 0.05 W m-2 at the top of atmosphere (TOA). Anthropogenic sulfate in our study yields more strongly negative forcings over the Arctic troposphere in spring (-1.17 ± 0.10 W m-2) than previously reported. From 1980 to 2010, TOA negative RF by Arctic aerosol declined, from -0.67 ± 0.06 W m-2 to -0.19 ± 0.05 W m-2, yielding a net TOA RF of +0.48 ± 0.06 W m-2. The net positive RF is due almost entirely to decreases in anthropogenic sulfate loading over the Arctic. We estimate that 1980-2010 trends in aerosol-radiation interactions over the Arctic and Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes have contributed a net warming at the Arctic surface of +0.27 ± 0.04 K, roughly one quarter of the observed warming. Our study does not consider BC emissions from gas flaring nor the regional climate response to aerosol-cloud interactions or BC deposition on snow.

Putting oxygen and temperature thresholds of marine animals in context of environmental change in coastal seas: a regional perspective for the Scotian Shelf and Gulf of St. Lawrence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brennan, Catherine E.; Blanchard, Hannah; Fennel, Katja

2014-05-01

We surveyed the literature in order to compile reported oxygen, temperature, salinity and depth preferences and thresholds of important marine species found in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the Scotian Shelf regions of the northwest North Atlantic. We determined species importance based on the existence of a commercial fishery, a threatened or at risk status, or by meeting the following criteria: bycatch, baitfish, invasive, vagrant, important for ecosystem energy transfer, and predators and prey of the above species. Using the dataset compiled for the 53 regional fishes and macroinvertebrates, we rank species (including for different lifestages) by their maximum thermal limit, as well as by the lowest oxygen concentration tolerated before negative impacts (e.g. physiological stress), 50% mortality or 100% mortality are experienced. Additionally, we compare these thresholds to observed marine deoxygenation trends at multiple sites, and observed surface warming trends. This results in an assessment of which regional species are most vulnerable to future warming and oxygen depletion, and a first-order estimate of the consequences of thermal and oxygen stress on a highly productive marine shelf. If regional multi-decadal oxygen and temperature trends continue through the 21st century, many species will lose favorable oxygen conditions, experience oxygen-stress, or disappear due to insufficient oxygen. Future warming can additionally displace vulnerable species, though we note that large natural variability in environmental conditions may amplify or dampen the effects of anthropogenic surface warming trends. This dataset may be combined with regional ocean model predictions to map future species distributions.

Global intensification in observed short-duration rainfall extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, H. J.; Lewis, E.; Guerreiro, S.; Blenkinsop, S.; Barbero, R.; Westra, S.; Lenderink, G.; Li, X.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall events are expected to intensify with a warming climate and this is currently driving extensive research. While daily rainfall extremes are widely thought to have increased globally in recent decades, changes in rainfall extremes on shorter timescales, often associated with flash flooding, have not been documented at global scale due to surface observational limitations and the lack of a global sub-daily rainfall database. The access to and use of such data remains a challenge. For the first time, we have synthesized across multiple data sources providing gauge-based sub-daily rainfall observations across the globe over the last 6 decades. This forms part of the INTENSE project (part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)'s Grand Challenge on 'Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes' and the Global Water and Energy Exchanges (GEWEX) Hydroclimate Project cross-cut on sub-daily rainfall). A set of global hydroclimatic indices have been produced based upon stakeholder recommendations including indices that describe maximum rainfall totals and timing, the intensity, duration and frequency of storms, frequency of storms above specific thresholds and information about the diurnal cycle. This will provide a unique global data resource on sub-daily precipitation whose derived indices will be freely available to the wider scientific community. Because of the physical connection between global warming and the moisture budget, we also sought to infer long-term changes in sub-daily rainfall extremes contingent on global mean temperature. Whereas the potential influence of global warming is uncertain at regional scales, where natural variability dominates, aggregating surface stations across parts of the world may increase the global warming-induced signal. Changes in terms of annual maximum rainfall across various resolutions ranging from 1-h to 24-h are presented and discussed.

Influence of Coastal Upwelling on SST Trends along the South Coast of Java

PubMed Central

Varela, R.; Santos, F.; Gómez-Gesteira, M.; Álvarez, I.; Costoya, X.; Días, J. M.

2016-01-01

The south coast of Java has warmed at a much lower rate than adjacent ocean locations over the last three decades (1982–2015). This behavior can be observed during the upwelling season (July-October) and it is especially patent in August and September when upwelling attains the highest values. Although different warming rates (ocean-coast) had been previously observed in other areas around the world, this behavior was always linked to situations where upwelling increased or remained unchanged. South Java warming is observed at ocean locations and cooling near shore but under a scenario of decreasing upwelling (~30% in some cases). The origin of coastal cooling is due to changes in the vertical structure of the water column. A vein of subsurface water, which has cooled at a rate higher than 0.3°C per decade, is observed to enter from the northwestern part of the study area following the South Java Current. This water only manifests at surface near coast, where it is pumped up by coastal upwelling. PMID:27606676

Changes in Arctic vegetation amplify high-latitude warming through the greenhouse effect.

PubMed

Swann, Abigail L; Fung, Inez Y; Levis, Samuel; Bonan, Gordon B; Doney, Scott C

2010-01-26

Arctic climate is projected to change dramatically in the next 100 years and increases in temperature will likely lead to changes in the distribution and makeup of the Arctic biosphere. A largely deciduous ecosystem has been suggested as a possible landscape for future Arctic vegetation and is seen in paleo-records of warm times in the past. Here we use a global climate model with an interactive terrestrial biosphere to investigate the effects of adding deciduous trees on bare ground at high northern latitudes. We find that the top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance from enhanced transpiration (associated with the expanded forest cover) is up to 1.5 times larger than the forcing due to albedo change from the forest. Furthermore, the greenhouse warming by additional water vapor melts sea-ice and triggers a positive feedback through changes in ocean albedo and evaporation. Land surface albedo change is considered to be the dominant mechanism by which trees directly modify climate at high-latitudes, but our findings suggest an additional mechanism through transpiration of water vapor and feedbacks from the ocean and sea-ice.

A Two-Timescale Response to Ozone Depletion: Importance of the Background State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seviour, W.; Waugh, D.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2015-12-01

It has been recently suggested that the response of Southern Ocean sea-ice extent to stratospheric ozone depletion is time-dependent; that the ocean surface initially cools due to enhanced northward Ekman drift caused by a poleward shift in the eddy-driven jet, and then warms after some time due to upwelling of warm waters from below the mixed layer. It is therefore possible that ozone depletion could act to favor a short-term increase in sea-ice extent. However, many uncertainties remain in understanding this mechanism, with different models showing widely differing time-scales and magnitudes of the response. Here, we analyze an ensemble of coupled model simulations with a step-function ozone perturbation. The two-timescale response is present with an approximately 30 year initial cooling period. The response is further shown to be highly dependent upon the background ocean temperature and salinity stratification, which is influenced by both natural internal variability and the isopycnal eddy mixing parameterization. It is suggested that the majority of inter-model differences in the Southern Ocean response to ozone depletion is caused by differences in stratification.

Mechanisms and detectability of oxygen depletion in the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tjiputra, J. F.; Goris, N.; Lauvset, S. K.; Schwinger, J.

2016-12-01

Dissolved oxygen is a key tracer in models used to represent the tight interaction between ocean biogeochemical cycle and circulation. Future ocean warming and stratification are projected, leading to a reduced oxygen concentration. Reduction in export production, in contrast, is projected to increase subsurface concentration by lowering the oxygen consumption during organic matter remineralization. In this exercise, we use a suite of CMIP5 models to study the oxygen evolution under the RCP8.5 scenario focusing on the North Atlantic, a region of rapid and steady circulation change. Most models agree with a large reduction in the deep North Atlantic (north of 40N), whereas an increase is projected in the upper subtropical ocean region. We attribute the former to weakening of the net primary production due to stronger stratification and the latter to less air-sea oxygen flux owing to less ventilation. The models also show that interior oxygen could provide earlier indicator of climate change than surface tracers. Sustained observation of oxygen is therefore crucial to reaffirm the ongoing circulation change due to global warming.

Diurnal ocean surface layer model validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hawkins, Jeffrey D.; May, Douglas A.; Abell, Fred, Jr.

1990-01-01

The diurnal ocean surface layer (DOSL) model at the Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center forecasts the 24-hour change in a global sea surface temperatures (SST). Validating the DOSL model is a difficult task due to the huge areas involved and the lack of in situ measurements. Therefore, this report details the use of satellite infrared multichannel SST imagery to provide day and night SSTs that can be directly compared to DOSL products. This water-vapor-corrected imagery has the advantages of high thermal sensitivity (0.12 C), large synoptic coverage (nearly 3000 km across), and high spatial resolution that enables diurnal heating events to be readily located and mapped. Several case studies in the subtropical North Atlantic readily show that DOSL results during extreme heating periods agree very well with satellite-imagery-derived values in terms of the pattern of diurnal warming. The low wind and cloud-free conditions necessary for these events to occur lend themselves well to observation via infrared imagery. Thus, the normally cloud-limited aspects of satellite imagery do not come into play for these particular environmental conditions. The fact that the DOSL model does well in extreme events is beneficial from the standpoint that these cases can be associated with the destruction of the surface acoustic duct. This so-called afternoon effect happens as the afternoon warming of the mixed layer disrupts the sound channel and the propagation of acoustic energy.

Interactions between Shrubs and Permafrost in the Torngat Mountains, Northern Labrador, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewkowicz, A.; Way, R. G.; Hermanutz, L.; Trant, A.; Siegwart Collier, L.; Whitaker, D.

2017-12-01

Discontinuous permafrost is acutely sensitive to climate warming and vegetation dynamics. Shrub height is positively correlated with accumulation of snow in the tundra resulting in warming of the ground in winter, and greater shading and lower surface temperatures in summer. Rapid greening due to climate warming has been observed throughout northeastern Canada and particularly in the coastal mountainous terrain of the Torngat Mountains National Park. Our research examines how this shrubification in the Torngat Mountains is modifying permafrost characteristics using observations which extend over a 100 km south-north transect from the sporadic zone (Saglek, Torr Bay) to where permafrost is widespread (Nakvak Brook, Kangalaksiorvik Lake) and potentially continuous (Komaktorvik River). We use air and ground temperature monitoring, vegetation surveys, dendrochronology, frost probing and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) to describe the complex interactions between shrub growth, geomorphology, climate and permafrost in a region where climate warming is rapidly altering the landscape. Preliminary analysis of field data shows low resistivity anomalies in the ERT profiles at some sites with thin permafrost, interpreted as unfrozen zones correlated with areas of tall shrubs (Alnus spp., Salix spp. and Betula glandulosa; ranging from prostrate to 2 m). Elsewhere, high resistivities extend to the base of the ERT profiles, indicating thicker permafrost, and no obvious impact of medium to low-prostrate shrubs (Salix spp., Betula glandulosa, Rhododendron spp., and Vaccinium spp.; up to 50 cm). Permafrost is interpreted to be present at most sites with low or prostrate shrubs, except where hydrological conditions favour warmer ground temperatures. We infer that the net impact of increasing shrub heights on the active layer and permafrost depends on antecedent ground temperatures and surficial geology. Increasing shrub heights may cause permafrost degradation at sites where mean ground temperatures are close to 0°C and rising due to climate warming. A deeper active layer or loss of permafrost in turn could affect hydrological conditions, potentially influencing shrub size and species composition.

Interactions between Shrubs and Permafrost in the Torngat Mountains, Northern Labrador, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewkowicz, A.; Way, R. G.; Hermanutz, L.; Trant, A.; Siegwart Collier, L.; Whitaker, D.

2016-12-01

Discontinuous permafrost is acutely sensitive to climate warming and vegetation dynamics. Shrub height is positively correlated with accumulation of snow in the tundra resulting in warming of the ground in winter, and greater shading and lower surface temperatures in summer. Rapid greening due to climate warming has been observed throughout northeastern Canada and particularly in the coastal mountainous terrain of the Torngat Mountains National Park. Our research examines how this shrubification in the Torngat Mountains is modifying permafrost characteristics using observations which extend over a 100 km south-north transect from the sporadic zone (Saglek, Torr Bay) to where permafrost is widespread (Nakvak Brook, Kangalaksiorvik Lake) and potentially continuous (Komaktorvik River). We use air and ground temperature monitoring, vegetation surveys, dendrochronology, frost probing and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) to describe the complex interactions between shrub growth, geomorphology, climate and permafrost in a region where climate warming is rapidly altering the landscape. Preliminary analysis of field data shows low resistivity anomalies in the ERT profiles at some sites with thin permafrost, interpreted as unfrozen zones correlated with areas of tall shrubs (Alnus spp., Salix spp. and Betula glandulosa; ranging from prostrate to 2 m). Elsewhere, high resistivities extend to the base of the ERT profiles, indicating thicker permafrost, and no obvious impact of medium to low-prostrate shrubs (Salix spp., Betula glandulosa, Rhododendron spp., and Vaccinium spp.; up to 50 cm). Permafrost is interpreted to be present at most sites with low or prostrate shrubs, except where hydrological conditions favour warmer ground temperatures. We infer that the net impact of increasing shrub heights on the active layer and permafrost depends on antecedent ground temperatures and surficial geology. Increasing shrub heights may cause permafrost degradation at sites where mean ground temperatures are close to 0°C and rising due to climate warming. A deeper active layer or loss of permafrost in turn could affect hydrological conditions, potentially influencing shrub size and species composition.

Comparison of forced-air warming systems with upper body blankets using a copper manikin of the human body.

PubMed

Bräuer, A; English, M J M; Steinmetz, N; Lorenz, N; Perl, T; Braun, U; Weyland, W

2002-09-01

Forced-air warming with upper body blankets has gained high acceptance as a measure for the prevention of intraoperative hypothermia. However, data on heat transfer with upper body blankets are not yet available. This study was conducted to determine the heat transfer efficacy of eight complete upper body warming systems and to gain more insight into the principles of forced-air warming. Heat transfer of forced-air warmers can be described as follows: Qdot;=h. DeltaT. A, where Qdot;= heat flux [W], h=heat exchange coefficient [W m-2 degrees C-1], DeltaT=temperature gradient between the blanket and surface [ degrees C], and A=covered area [m2]. We tested eight different forced-air warming systems: (1) Bair Hugger and upper body blanket (Augustine Medical Inc. Eden Prairie, MN); (2) Thermacare and upper body blanket (Gaymar Industries, Orchard Park, NY); (3) Thermacare (Gaymar Industries) with reusable Optisan upper body blanket (Willy Rüsch AG, Kernen, Germany); (4) WarmAir and upper body blanket (Cincinnati Sub-Zero Products, Cincinnati, OH); (5) Warm-Gard and single use upper body blanket (Luis Gibeck AB, Upplands Väsby, Sweden); (6) Warm-Gard and reusable upper body blanket (Luis Gibeck AB); (7) WarmTouch and CareDrape upper body blanket (Mallinckrodt Medical Inc., St. Luis, MO); and (8) WarmTouch and reusable MultiCover trade mark upper body blanket (Mallinckrodt Medical Inc.) on a previously validated copper manikin of the human body. Heat flux and surface temperature were measured with 11 calibrated heat flux transducers. Blanket temperature was measured using 11 thermocouples. The temperature gradient between the blanket and surface (DeltaT) was varied between -8 and +8 degrees C, and h was determined by linear regression analysis as the slope of DeltaT vs. heat flux. Mean DeltaT was determined for surface temperatures between 36 and 38 degrees C, as similar mean skin surface temperatures have been found in volunteers. The covered area was estimated to be 0.35 m2. Total heat flow from the blanket to the manikin was different for surface temperatures between 36 and 38 degrees C. At a surface temperature of 36 degrees C the heat flows were higher (4-26.6 W) than at surface temperatures of 38 degrees C (2.6-18.1 W). The highest total heat flow was delivered by the WarmTouch trade mark system with the CareDrape trade mark upper body blanket (18.1-26.6 W). The lowest total heat flow was delivered by the Warm-Gard system with the single use upper body blanket (2.6-4 W). The heat exchange coefficient varied between 15.1 and 36.2 W m-2 degrees C-1, and mean DeltaT varied between 0.5 and 3.3 degrees C. We found total heat flows of 2.6-26.6 W by forced-air warming systems with upper body blankets. However, the changes in heat balance by forced-air warming systems with upper body blankets are larger, as these systems are not only transferring heat to the body but are also reducing heat losses from the covered area to zero. Converting heat losses of approximately 37.8 W to heat gain, results in a 40.4-64.4 W change in heat balance. The differences between the systems result from different heat exchange coefficients and different mean temperature gradients. However, the combination of a high heat exchange coefficient with a high mean temperature gradient is rare. This fact offers some possibility to improve these systems.

Main processes of the Atlantic cold tongue interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Planton, Yann; Voldoire, Aurore; Giordani, Hervé; Caniaux, Guy

2018-03-01

The interannual variability of the Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) is studied by means of a mixed-layer heat budget analysis. A method to classify extreme cold and warm ACT events is proposed and applied to ten various analysis and reanalysis products. This classification allows 5 cold and 5 warm ACT events to be selected over the period 1982-2007. Cold (warm) ACT events are defined by the presence of negative (positive) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies at the center of the equatorial Atlantic in late boreal spring, preceded by negative (positive) zonal wind stress anomalies in the western equatorial Atlantic. An ocean general circulation model capable of reconstructing the interannual variability of the ACT correctly is used to demonstrate that cold ACT events develop rapidly from May to June mainly due to intense cooling by vertical mixing and horizontal advection. The simulated cooling at the center of the basin is the result of the combined effects of non-local and local processes. The non-local process is an upwelling associated with an eastward-propagating Kelvin wave, which makes the mixed-layer more shallow and preconditions the upper layers to be cooled by an intense heat loss at the base of the mixed-layer, which is amplified by a stronger local injection of energy from the atmosphere. The early cooling by vertical mixing in March is also shown to be a good predictor of June cooling. In July, horizontal advection starts to warm the mixed-layer abnormally and damps SST anomalies. The advection anomalies, which result from changes in the horizontal temperature gradient, are associated in some cases with the propagation of Rossby waves along the equator. During warm ACT events, processes are reversed, generating positive SST anomalies: a downwelling Kelvin wave triggers stratification anomalies and mixed-layer depth anomalies, amplified by a weaker injection of energy from the atmosphere in May-June. In July, warm ACT events are abnormally cooled due to negative horizontal advection anomalies resulting from processes similar to those that occur during cold ACT events. This additional cooling process extends the period of cooling of the ACT, reducing SST anomalies.

Modeling the Impacts of Long-Term Warming Trends on Gross Primary Productivity Across North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mekonnen, Z. A.; Grant, R. F.

2014-12-01

There is evidence of warming over recent decades in most regions of North America (NA) that affects ecosystem productivity and the past decade has been the warmest since instrumental records of global surface temperatures began. In this study, we examined the spatial and temporal variability and trends of warming across NA using climate data from the North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) from 1979 to 2010 with a 3-hourly time-step and 0.250 x 0.250 spatial resolution as part of the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). A comprehensive mathematical process model, ecosys was used to simulate impacts of this variability in warming on gross primary productivity (GPP). In a test of model results, annual GPP modeled for pixels which corresponded to the locations of 25 eddy covariance towers correlated well (R2=0.76) with annual GPP derived from the flux towers in 2005. At the continental scale long-term (2000 - 2010) annual average modeled GPP for NA correlated well (geographically weighed regression R2 = 0.8) with MODIS GPP, demonstrating close similarities in spatial patterns. Results from the NARR indicated that most areas of NA, particularly high latitude regions, have experienced warming but changes in precipitation vary spatially over the last three decades. GPP modeled in most areas with lower mean annual air temperature (Ta), such as those in boreal climate zones, increased due to early spring and late autumn warming observed in NARR. However modeled GPP declined in most southwestern regions of NA, due to water stress from rising Ta and declining precipitation. Overall, GPP modeled across NA had a positive trend of +0.025 P g C yr-1 with a range of -1.16 to 0.87 P g C yr-1 from the long-term mean. Interannual variability of GPP was the greatest in southwest of US and part of the Great Plains, which could be as a result of frequent El Niño-Southern Oscillation' (ENSO) events that led to major droughts.

A Hiatus of the Greenhouse Effect.

PubMed

Song, Jinjie; Wang, Yuan; Tang, Jianping

2016-09-12

The rate at which the global average surface temperature is increasing has slowed down since the end of the last century. This study investigates whether this warming hiatus results from a change in the well-known greenhouse effect. Using long-term, reliable, and consistent observational data from the Earth's surface and the top of the atmosphere (TOA), two monthly gridded atmospheric and surface greenhouse effect parameters (Ga and Gs) are estimated to represent the radiative warming effects of the atmosphere and the surface in the infrared range from 1979 to 2014. The atmospheric and surface greenhouse effect over the tropical monsoon-prone regions is found to contribute substantially to the global total. Furthermore, the downward tendency of cloud activity leads to a greenhouse effect hiatus after the early 1990 s, prior to the warming pause. Additionally, this pause in the greenhouse effect is mostly caused by the high number of La Niña events between 1991 and 2014. A strong La Niña indicates suppressed convection in the tropical central Pacific that reduces atmospheric water vapor content and cloud volume. This significantly weakened regional greenhouse effect offsets the enhanced warming influence in other places and decelerates the rising global greenhouse effect. This work suggests that the greenhouse effect hiatus can be served as an additional factor to cause the recent global warming slowdown.

A Hiatus of the Greenhouse Effect

PubMed Central

Song, Jinjie; Wang, Yuan; Tang, Jianping

2016-01-01

The rate at which the global average surface temperature is increasing has slowed down since the end of the last century. This study investigates whether this warming hiatus results from a change in the well-known greenhouse effect. Using long-term, reliable, and consistent observational data from the Earth’s surface and the top of the atmosphere (TOA), two monthly gridded atmospheric and surface greenhouse effect parameters (Ga and Gs) are estimated to represent the radiative warming effects of the atmosphere and the surface in the infrared range from 1979 to 2014. The atmospheric and surface greenhouse effect over the tropical monsoon-prone regions is found to contribute substantially to the global total. Furthermore, the downward tendency of cloud activity leads to a greenhouse effect hiatus after the early 1990 s, prior to the warming pause. Additionally, this pause in the greenhouse effect is mostly caused by the high number of La Niña events between 1991 and 2014. A strong La Niña indicates suppressed convection in the tropical central Pacific that reduces atmospheric water vapor content and cloud volume. This significantly weakened regional greenhouse effect offsets the enhanced warming influence in other places and decelerates the rising global greenhouse effect. This work suggests that the greenhouse effect hiatus can be served as an additional factor to cause the recent global warming slowdown. PMID:27616203

A Hiatus of the Greenhouse Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jinjie; Wang, Yuan; Tang, Jianping

2016-09-01

The rate at which the global average surface temperature is increasing has slowed down since the end of the last century. This study investigates whether this warming hiatus results from a change in the well-known greenhouse effect. Using long-term, reliable, and consistent observational data from the Earth’s surface and the top of the atmosphere (TOA), two monthly gridded atmospheric and surface greenhouse effect parameters (Ga and Gs) are estimated to represent the radiative warming effects of the atmosphere and the surface in the infrared range from 1979 to 2014. The atmospheric and surface greenhouse effect over the tropical monsoon-prone regions is found to contribute substantially to the global total. Furthermore, the downward tendency of cloud activity leads to a greenhouse effect hiatus after the early 1990 s, prior to the warming pause. Additionally, this pause in the greenhouse effect is mostly caused by the high number of La Niña events between 1991 and 2014. A strong La Niña indicates suppressed convection in the tropical central Pacific that reduces atmospheric water vapor content and cloud volume. This significantly weakened regional greenhouse effect offsets the enhanced warming influence in other places and decelerates the rising global greenhouse effect. This work suggests that the greenhouse effect hiatus can be served as an additional factor to cause the recent global warming slowdown.

Water-Surface Elevations, Discharge, and Water-Quality Data for Selected Sites in the Warm Springs Area near Moapa, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beck, David A.; Ryan, Roslyn; Veley, Ronald J.; Harper, Donald P.; Tanko, Daron J.

2006-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Southern Nevada Water Authority and the Nevada Division of Water Resources, operates and maintains a surface-water monitoring network of 6 continuous-record stream-flow gaging stations and 11 partial-record stations in the Warm Springs area near Moapa, Nevada. Permanent land-surface bench marks were installed within the Warm Springs area by the Las Vegas Valley Water District, the Southern Nevada Water Authority, and the U.S. Geological Survey to determine water-surface elevations at all network monitoring sites. Vertical datum elevation and horizontal coordinates were established for all bench marks through a series of Differential Global Positioning System surveys. Optical theodolite surveys were made to transfer Differential Global Positioning System vertical datums to reference marks installed at each monitoring site. The surveys were completed in June 2004 and water-surface elevations were measured on August 17, 2004. Water-surface elevations ranged from 1,810.33 feet above North American Vertical Datum of 1988 at a stream-gaging station in the Pederson Springs area to 1,706.31 feet at a station on the Muddy River near Moapa. Discharge and water-quality data were compiled for the Warm Springs area and include data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey, Nevada Division of Water Resources, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Moapa Valley Water District, Desert Research Institute, and Converse Consultants. Historical and current hydrologic data-collection networks primarily are related to changes in land- and water-use activities in the Warm Springs area. These changes include declines in ranching and agricultural use, the exportation of water to other areas of Moapa Valley, and the creation of a national wildlife refuge. Water-surface elevations, discharge, and water-quality data compiled for the Warm Springs area will help identify (1) effects of changing vegetation within the former agricultural lands, (2) effects of restoration activities in the wildlife refuge, and (3) potential impacts of ground-water withdrawals.

Use of GLOBE Observations to Derive a Landsat 8 Split Window Algorithm for Urban Heat Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fagerstrom, L.; Czajkowski, K. P.

2017-12-01

Surface temperature has been studied to investigate the warming of urban climates, also known as urban heat islands, which can impact urban planning, public health, pollution levels, and energy consumption. However, the full potential of remotely sensed images is limited when analyzing land surface temperature due to the daunting task of correcting for atmospheric effects. Landsat 8 has two thermal infrared sensors. With two bands in the infrared region, a split window algorithm (SWA), can be applied to correct for atmospheric effects. This project used in situ surface temperature measurements from NASA's ground observation program, the Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE), to derive the correcting coefficients for use in the SWA. The GLOBE database provided land surface temperature data that coincided with Landsat 8 overpasses. The land surface temperature derived from Landsat 8 SWA can be used to analyze for urban heat island effect.

Diel Surface Temperature Range Scales with Lake Size

PubMed Central

Woolway, R. Iestyn; Jones, Ian D.; Maberly, Stephen C.; French, Jon R.; Livingstone, David M.; Monteith, Donald T.; Simpson, Gavin L.; Thackeray, Stephen J.; Andersen, Mikkel R.; Battarbee, Richard W.; DeGasperi, Curtis L.; Evans, Christopher D.; de Eyto, Elvira; Feuchtmayr, Heidrun; Hamilton, David P.; Kernan, Martin; Krokowski, Jan; Rimmer, Alon; Rose, Kevin C.; Rusak, James A.; Ryves, David B.; Scott, Daniel R.; Shilland, Ewan M.; Smyth, Robyn L.; Staehr, Peter A.; Thomas, Rhian; Waldron, Susan; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.

2016-01-01

Ecological and biogeochemical processes in lakes are strongly dependent upon water temperature. Long-term surface warming of many lakes is unequivocal, but little is known about the comparative magnitude of temperature variation at diel timescales, due to a lack of appropriately resolved data. Here we quantify the pattern and magnitude of diel temperature variability of surface waters using high-frequency data from 100 lakes. We show that the near-surface diel temperature range can be substantial in summer relative to long-term change and, for lakes smaller than 3 km2, increases sharply and predictably with decreasing lake area. Most small lakes included in this study experience average summer diel ranges in their near-surface temperatures of between 4 and 7°C. Large diel temperature fluctuations in the majority of lakes undoubtedly influence their structure, function and role in biogeochemical cycles, but the full implications remain largely unexplored. PMID:27023200

Warming of the Global Ocean: Spatial Structure and Water-Mass Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hakkinen, Sirpa; Rhines, Peter B.; Worthen, Denise L.

2016-01-01

This study investigates the multidecadal warming and interannual-to-decadal heat content changes in the upper ocean (0-700 m), focusing on vertical and horizontal patterns of variability. These results support a nearly monotonic warming over much of the World Ocean, with a shift toward Southern Hemisphere warming during the well-observed past decade. This is based on objectively analyzed gridded observational datasets and on a modeled state estimate. Besides the surface warming, a warming climate also has a subsurface effect manifesting as a strong deepening of the midthermocline isopycnals, which can be diagnosed directly from hydrographic data. This deepening appears to be a result of heat entering via subduction and spreading laterally from the high-latitude ventilation regions of subtropical mode waters. The basin-average multidecadal warming mainly expands the subtropical mode water volume, with weak changes in the temperature-salinity (u-S) relationship (known as ''spice'' variability). However, the spice contribution to the heat content can be locally large, for example in Southern Hemisphere. Multidecadal isopycnal sinking has been strongest over the southern basins and weaker elsewhere with the exception of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current/subtropical recirculation gyre. At interannual to decadal time scales, wind-driven sinking and shoaling of density surfaces still dominate ocean heat content changes, while the contribution from temperature changes along density surfaces tends to decrease as time scales shorten.

Trends in continental temperature and humidity directly linked to ocean warming.

PubMed

Byrne, Michael P; O'Gorman, Paul A

2018-05-08

In recent decades, the land surface has warmed substantially more than the ocean surface, and relative humidity has fallen over land. Amplified warming and declining relative humidity over land are also dominant features of future climate projections, with implications for climate-change impacts. An emerging body of research has shown how constraints from atmospheric dynamics and moisture budgets are important for projected future land-ocean contrasts, but these ideas have not been used to investigate temperature and humidity records over recent decades. Here we show how both the temperature and humidity changes observed over land between 1979 and 2016 are linked to warming over neighboring oceans. A simple analytical theory, based on atmospheric dynamics and moisture transport, predicts equal changes in moist static energy over land and ocean and equal fractional changes in specific humidity over land and ocean. The theory is shown to be consistent with the observed trends in land temperature and humidity given the warming over ocean. Amplified land warming is needed for the increase in moist static energy over drier land to match that over ocean, and land relative humidity decreases because land specific humidity is linked via moisture transport to the weaker warming over ocean. However, there is considerable variability about the best-fit trend in land relative humidity that requires further investigation and which may be related to factors such as changes in atmospheric circulations and land-surface properties.

Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

PubMed Central

Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J.; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

2018-01-01

We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme projections suggesting more than a doubling of flows in the Ganges at 2°C global warming. Some areas are projected to experience shorter meteorological drought events and less severe low flows, although longer droughts and/or decreases in low flows are projected in many other areas, particularly southern Africa and South America. Flows in the Amazon are projected to decline by up to 25%. Increases in either heavy rainfall or drought events imply increased vulnerability to food insecurity, but if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, this vulnerability is projected to remain smaller than at 2°C global warming in approximately 76% of developing countries. At 2°C, four countries are projected to reach unprecedented levels of vulnerability to food insecurity. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’. PMID:29610383

Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, Richard A.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J.; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

2018-05-01

We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme projections suggesting more than a doubling of flows in the Ganges at 2°C global warming. Some areas are projected to experience shorter meteorological drought events and less severe low flows, although longer droughts and/or decreases in low flows are projected in many other areas, particularly southern Africa and South America. Flows in the Amazon are projected to decline by up to 25%. Increases in either heavy rainfall or drought events imply increased vulnerability to food insecurity, but if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, this vulnerability is projected to remain smaller than at 2°C global warming in approximately 76% of developing countries. At 2°C, four countries are projected to reach unprecedented levels of vulnerability to food insecurity. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model.

PubMed

Betts, Richard A; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

2018-05-13

We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme projections suggesting more than a doubling of flows in the Ganges at 2°C global warming. Some areas are projected to experience shorter meteorological drought events and less severe low flows, although longer droughts and/or decreases in low flows are projected in many other areas, particularly southern Africa and South America. Flows in the Amazon are projected to decline by up to 25%. Increases in either heavy rainfall or drought events imply increased vulnerability to food insecurity, but if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, this vulnerability is projected to remain smaller than at 2°C global warming in approximately 76% of developing countries. At 2°C, four countries are projected to reach unprecedented levels of vulnerability to food insecurity.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

Cooling of the North Atlantic by Saharan Dust

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Kim, K. M.

2007-01-01

Using aerosol optical depth, sea surface temperature, top-of-the-atmosphere solar radiation flux, and oceanic mixed-layer depth from diverse data sources that include NASA satellites, NCEP reanalysis, in situ observations, as well as long-term dust records from Barbados, we examine the possible relationships between Saharan dust and Atlantic sea surface temperature. Results show that the estimated anomalous cooling pattern of the Atlantic during June 2006 relative to June 2005 due to attenuation of surface solar radiation by Saharan dust remarkably resemble observations, accounting for approximately 30-40% of the observed change in sea surface temperature. Historical data analysis show that there is a robust negative correlation between atmospheric dust loading and Atlantic SST consistent with the notion that increased (decreased) Saharan dust is associated with cooling (warming) of the Atlantic during the early hurricane season (July- August-September).

Warming experiments elucidate the drivers of observed directional changes in tundra vegetation

PubMed Central

Hollister, Robert D; May, Jeremy L; Kremers, Kelseyann S; Tweedie, Craig E; Oberbauer, Steven F; Liebig, Jennifer A; Botting, Timothy F; Barrett, Robert T; Gregory, Jessica L

2015-01-01

Few studies have clearly linked long-term monitoring with in situ experiments to clarify potential drivers of observed change at a given site. This is especially necessary when findings from a site are applied to a much broader geographic area. Here, we document vegetation change at Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska, occurring naturally and due to experimental warming over nearly two decades. An examination of plant cover, canopy height, and community indices showed more significant differences between years than due to experimental warming. However, changes with warming were more consistent than changes between years and were cumulative in many cases. Most cases of directional change observed in the control plots over time corresponded with a directional change in response to experimental warming. These included increases in canopy height and decreases in lichen cover. Experimental warming resulted in additional increases in evergreen shrub cover and decreases in diversity and bryophyte cover. This study suggests that the directional changes occurring at the sites are primarily due to warming and indicates that further changes are likely in the next two decades if the regional warming trend continues. These findings provide an example of the utility of coupling in situ experiments with long-term monitoring to accurately document vegetation change in response to global change and to identify the underlying mechanisms driving observed changes. PMID:26140204

Chronic warming stimulates growth of marsh grasses more than mangroves in a coastal wetland ecotone.

PubMed

Coldren, G A; Barreto, C R; Wykoff, D D; Morrissey, E M; Langley, J A; Feller, I C; Chapman, S K

2016-11-01

Increasing temperatures and a reduction in the frequency and severity of freezing events have been linked to species distribution shifts. Across the globe, mangrove ranges are expanding toward higher latitudes, likely due to diminishing frequency of freezing events associated with climate change. Continued warming will alter coastal wetland plant dynamics both above- and belowground, potentially altering plant capacity to keep up with sea level rise. We conducted an in situ warming experiment, in northeast Florida, to determine how increased temperature (+2°C) influences co-occurring mangrove and salt marsh plants. Warming was achieved using passive warming with three treatment levels (ambient, shade control, warmed). Avicennia germinans, the black mangrove, exhibited no differences in growth or height due to experimental warming, but displayed a warming-induced increase in leaf production (48%). Surprisingly, Distichlis spicata, the dominant salt marsh grass, increased in biomass (53% in 2013 and 70% in 2014), density (41%) and height (18%) with warming during summer months. Warming decreased plant root mass at depth and changed abundances of anaerobic bacterial taxa. Even while the poleward shift of mangroves is clearly controlled by the occurrences of severe freezes, chronic warming between these freeze events may slow the progression of mangrove dominance within ecotones. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Climate. Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration.

PubMed

Chen, Xianyao; Tung, Ka-Kit

2014-08-22

A vacillating global heat sink at intermediate ocean depths is associated with different climate regimes of surface warming under anthropogenic forcing: The latter part of the 20th century saw rapid global warming as more heat stayed near the surface. In the 21st century, surface warming slowed as more heat moved into deeper oceans. In situ and reanalyzed data are used to trace the pathways of ocean heat uptake. In addition to the shallow La Niña-like patterns in the Pacific that were the previous focus, we found that the slowdown is mainly caused by heat transported to deeper layers in the Atlantic and the Southern oceans, initiated by a recurrent salinity anomaly in the subpolar North Atlantic. Cooling periods associated with the latter deeper heat-sequestration mechanism historically lasted 20 to 35 years. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

A Stabilizing Feedback Between Cloud Radiative Effects and Greenland Surface Melt: Verification From Multi-year Automatic Weather Station Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zender, C. S.; Wang, W.; van As, D.

2017-12-01

Clouds have strong impacts on Greenland's surface melt through the interaction with the dry atmosphere and reflective surfaces. However, their effects are uncertain due to the lack of in situ observations. To better quantify cloud radiative effects (CRE) in Greenland, we analyze and interpret multi-year radiation measurements from 30 automatic weather stations encompassing a broad range of climatological and topographical conditions. During melt season, clouds warm surface over most of Greenland, meaning the longwave greenhouse effect outweighs the shortwave shading effect; on the other hand, the spatial variability of net (longwave and shortwave) CRE is dominated by shortwave CRE and in turn by surface albedo, which controls the potential absorption of solar radiation when clouds are absent. The net warming effect decreases with shortwave CRE from high to low altitudes and from north to south (Fig. 1). The spatial correlation between albedo and net CRE is strong (r=0.93, p<<0.01). In the accumulation zone, the net CRE seasonal trend is controlled by longwave CRE associated with cloud fraction and liquid water content. It becomes stronger from May to July and stays constant in August. In the ablation zone, albedo determines the net CRE seasonal trend, which decreases from May to July and increases afterwards. On an hourly timescale, we find two distinct radiative states in Greenland (Fig. 2). The clear state is characterized by clear-sky conditions or thin clouds, when albedo and solar zenith angle (SZA) weakly correlates with CRE. The cloudy state is characterized by opaque clouds, when the combination of albedo and SZA strongly correlates with CRE (r=0.85, p<0.01). Although cloud properties intrinsically affect CRE, the large melt-season variability of these two non-cloud factors, albedo and solar zenith angle, explains the majority of the CRE variation in spatial distribution, seasonal trend in the ablation zone, and in hourly variability in the cloudy radiative state. Clouds warm the brighter and colder surfaces of Greenland, enhance snow melt, and tend to lower the albedo. Clouds cool the darker and warmer surfaces, inhibiting snow melt, which increases albedo, and thus stabilizes surface melt. This stabilizing mechanism may also occur over sea ice, helping to forestall surface melt as the Arctic becomes dimmer.

First results of warm mesospheric temperature over Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) during the sudden stratospheric warming of 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sridharan, S.; Raghunath, K.; Sathishkumar, S.; Nath, D.

2010-09-01

Rayleigh lidar observations at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) show an enhancement of the nightly mean temperature by 10-15 K at altitudes 70-80 km and of gravity wave potential energy at 60-70 km during the 2009 major stratospheric warming event. An enhanced quasi-16-day wave activity is observed at 50-70 km in the wavelet spectrum of TIMED-SABER temperatures, possibly due to the absence of a critical level in the low-latitude stratosphere because of less westward winds caused by this warming event. The observed low-latitude mesospheric warming could be due to wave breaking, as waves are damped at 80 km.

On the size dependence of the scattering greenhouse effect of CO2 ice particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitzmann, D.; Patzer, A. B. C.; Rauer, H.

2011-10-01

In this contribution we study the potential greenhouse effect due to scattering of CO2 ice clouds for atmospheric conditions of terrestrial extrasolar planets. Therefore, we calculate the scattering and absorption properties of CO2 ice particles using Mie theory for assumed particle size distributions with different effective radii and particle densities to determine the scattering and absorption characteristics of such clouds. Implications especially in view of a potential greenhouse warming of the planetary surface are discussed.

Warm Rivers Play Role in Arctic Sea Ice Melt Animation

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-03-05

This frame from a NASA MODIS animation depicts warming sea surface temperatures in the Arctic Beaufort Sea after warm waters from Canada Mackenzie River broke through a shoreline sea ice barrier in summer 2012, enhancing the melting of sea ice.

An investigation of CMIP5 model biases in simulating the impacts of central Pacific El Niño on the East Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Juan; Chen, Wen; Gong, Hainan; Ying, Jun; Jiang, Wenping

2018-06-01

The delayed impacts of the central Pacific (CP) El Niño on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are evaluated by comparing historical runs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models against reanalysis data. In observations, an anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC), linking CP El Niño to the EASM, forms due to the transition of sea surface temperature (SST) warming into SST cooling over the CP, which generates a WNPAC through a Gill-Matsuno response. In comparison with the observational result, only one-third of the models (i.e., the type-I models) capture a weaker and smaller WNPAC, whereas the other two-thirds (i.e., the type-II models) fail to reproduce a WNPAC. The simulation biases in both of type-I models and type-II models mainly arise from an unrealistic, long-lasting CP El Niño warming, which causes a north Indian Ocean SST warming bias in models through air-sea interaction process. This north Indian Ocean SST warming generates the WNPAC through capacitor effects, which is different from the WNPAC formation mechanism in observations. This discrepancy leads to simulation biases in type-I models. In type-II models, the unrealistic CP El Niño warming persists into summer, which produces an anomalous cyclone over the central-western Pacific. The opposite effect of the CP and north Indian Ocean SST warming on the WNP atmospheric circulation leads to disappearance of the WNPAC. Hence, large simulation biases are produced in type-II models. Further analysis demonstrates the slow decay of CP El Niño is caused by the unrealistically simulated climatological SST, which creates strong warm meridional oceanic advection and results in a sustained CP El Niño warming.

The Impact of Wet Soil and Canopy Temperatures on Daytime Boundary-Layer Growth.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Segal, M.; Garratt, J. R.; Kallos, G.; Pielke, R. A.

1989-12-01

The impact of very wet soil and canopy temperatures on the surface sensible heat flux, and on related daytime boundary-layer properties is evaluated. For very wet soils, two winter situations are considered, related to significant changes in soil surface temperature: (1) due to weather perturbations at a given location, and (2) due to the climatological north-south temperature gradient. Analyses and scaling of the various boundary-layer properties, and soil surface fluxes affecting the sensible beat flux, have been made; related evaluations show that changes in the sensible heat flux at a given location by a factor of 2 to 3 due to temperature changes related to weather perturbations is not uncommon. These changes result in significant alterations in the boundary-layer depth; in the atmospheric boundary-layer warming; and in the break-up time of the nocturnal surface temperature inversion. Investigation of the impact of the winter latitudinal temperature gradient on the above characteristics indicated that the relative increase in very wet soil sensible heat flux, due to the climatological reduction in the surface temperature in northern latitudes, moderates to some extent its reduction due to the corresponding decrease in solar radiation. Numerical model simulations confirmed these analytical evaluations.In addition, the impact of synoptic temperature perturbations during the transition seasons (fall and spring) on canopy sensible heal fluxes, and the related boundary-layer characteristics mentioned above, was evaluated. Analogous features to those found for very wet soil surfaces occurred also for the canopy situations. Likewise, evaluations were also carried out to explore the impact of high midlatitude foreste areas on the boundary-layer characteristics during the winter as compared to those during the summer. Similar impacts were found in both seasons, regardless of the substantial difference in the daily total solar radiation.

CLIMATE CHANGE. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus.

PubMed

Karl, Thomas R; Arguez, Anthony; Huang, Boyin; Lawrimore, Jay H; McMahon, James R; Menne, Matthew J; Peterson, Thomas C; Vose, Russell S; Zhang, Huai-Min

2015-06-26

Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming "hiatus." Here, we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a "slowdown" in the increase of global surface temperature. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Climate change and response of geosystems of the Russian North (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drozdov, D. S.; Korostelev, Y. V.; Malkova, G. V.; Melnikov, V. P.; Orekhov, P. T.; Ukraintseva, N. G.

2010-12-01

The study of climate change, mainly air temperature and snow cover depth, is a key to understanding of modern trends in evolution of cryolithozone and response of geosystems of the North. Greenhouse and technogenic effects influence the cryolithozone and permafrost as well. Scenarios of substantial warming, temperate warming, and cooling were considered in our research. Weather station records show that the last so called “Earth Global Warming”, which started in 1960-1970s was initially most pronounced in Subarctic and Temperate zones. Maximum warming rate was observed in the 1980s. In Russia, the areas of warming in 20th century were Central Yakutia and Transbaikal, while in the European and Far East Russia the rate of warming was rather small. Later, the warming trend was observed only locally and new areas of maximum rates of warming appear within Russian cryolithozone. In 2000s, warming gradually extends to the Arctic regions while it slows down in Subarctic. Thermal regime of permafrost generally follows the climate change. Geocryological monitoring data evidence the rise of ground temperature at the depth of zero annual amplitude in the north of West Siberia by 0.2 to 1.4°C and in European Russia by 0.1 to 0.7°C. In these regions, slight trend of snow accumulation growth was also observed. At the same time, in Central Yakutia, though climate warms, permafrost temperature does not show increase due to reduction of snow depth in the last decades. In West Siberia, Urengoi gas field, ground temperatures in 1975-1993 increased by 1 to 1.5°C due to natural climate fluctuations (some times up to 2 to 3.5°C). Human impact added 1 to 1.5°C, this last being tightly linked to the effect of engineering structures. Some slowing of thaw and stabilization of ground temperature around 0°C is observed as incoming heat is consumed by phase transition in the near-surface layer. I was instrumentally detected that permafrost table lowered by 5-8 m and more at the forested and shrubby sites. According to our calculations, during the last 30 years, the southern limit of patchy near-surface permafrost shifted northward by 100-120 km in West Siberia, and by 20-50 km in European Russia. Continuous permafrost area in Russia reduced by 1,000,000 km2 (15%) compared to 1960-70-s. This also means changes in hydrology and hydrogeology, occurrence of new and activation of existing exogenic processes, reduction of bearing capacity of the ground used as foundations for roads, pipelines and so on. Climate change became evident also in the landscape appearance of geosystems of the North. In 1975-1980 at the left bank of Pur-river (West Siberia) thin larch forests could be met only at the hill tops of southern forest-tundra zone. Observations in 2007-2008 showed a mass expansion of larch northward into the former forest-free hilltops of northern forest-tundra. Moreover, in 1999 in southern tundra sub-zone at the hill tops 2-3-year old larch undergrowth 10-20 cm high was observed as well, though during several subsequent cold, with little snow winters those larch trees were frost-killed. In High Russian Arctic the ground temperature is not uniform: at Belyi Island (73.5° N) it varies from 11 to 7°C; at Frantz-Joseph Zemlia Archipelago (80.5° N) - from 11.5 to 10.5°C.

Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO2 concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Good, Peter; Lowe, Jason A.; Andrews, Timothy; Wiltshire, Andrew; Chadwick, Robin; Ridley, Jeff K.; Menary, Matthew B.; Bouttes, Nathaelle; Dufresne, Jean Louis; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Schaller, Nathalie; Shiogama, Hideo

2015-02-01

When considering adaptation measures and global climate mitigation goals, stakeholders need regional-scale climate projections, including the range of plausible warming rates. To assist these stakeholders, it is important to understand whether some locations may see disproportionately high or low warming from additional forcing above targets such as 2 K (ref. ). There is a need to narrow uncertainty in this nonlinear warming, which requires understanding how climate changes as forcings increase from medium to high levels. However, quantifying and understanding regional nonlinear processes is challenging. Here we show that regional-scale warming can be strongly superlinear to successive CO2 doublings, using five different climate models. Ensemble-mean warming is superlinear over most land locations. Further, the inter-model spread tends to be amplified at higher forcing levels, as nonlinearities grow--especially when considering changes per kelvin of global warming. Regional nonlinearities in surface warming arise from nonlinearities in global-mean radiative balance, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, surface snow/ice cover and evapotranspiration. For robust adaptation and mitigation advice, therefore, potentially avoidable climate change (the difference between business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios) and unavoidable climate change (change under strong mitigation scenarios) may need different analysis methods.

The footprint of the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo

Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871–2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcingsmore » account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO’s cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. As a result, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.« less

The footprint of the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures

DOE PAGES

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo; ...

2016-02-17

Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871–2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcingsmore » account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO’s cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. As a result, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.« less

Sea surface height evidence for long-term warming effects of tropical cyclones on the ocean

PubMed Central

Mei, Wei; Primeau, François; McWilliams, James C.; Pasquero, Claudia

2013-01-01

Tropical cyclones have been hypothesized to influence climate by pumping heat into the ocean, but a direct measure of this warming effect is still lacking. We quantified cyclone-induced ocean warming by directly monitoring the thermal expansion of water in the wake of cyclones, using satellite-based sea surface height data that provide a unique way of tracking the changes in ocean heat content on seasonal and longer timescales. We find that the long-term effect of cyclones is to warm the ocean at a rate of 0.32 ± 0.15 PW between 1993 and 2009, i.e., ∼23 times more efficiently per unit area than the background equatorial warming, making cyclones potentially important modulators of the climate by affecting heat transport in the ocean–atmosphere system. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that the rate of warming increases with cyclone intensity. This, together with a predicted shift in the distribution of cyclones toward higher intensities as climate warms, suggests the ocean will get even warmer, possibly leading to a positive feedback. PMID:23922393

Sea surface height evidence for long-term warming effects of tropical cyclones on the ocean.

PubMed

Mei, Wei; Primeau, François; McWilliams, James C; Pasquero, Claudia

2013-09-17

Tropical cyclones have been hypothesized to influence climate by pumping heat into the ocean, but a direct measure of this warming effect is still lacking. We quantified cyclone-induced ocean warming by directly monitoring the thermal expansion of water in the wake of cyclones, using satellite-based sea surface height data that provide a unique way of tracking the changes in ocean heat content on seasonal and longer timescales. We find that the long-term effect of cyclones is to warm the ocean at a rate of 0.32 ± 0.15 PW between 1993 and 2009, i.e., ∼23 times more efficiently per unit area than the background equatorial warming, making cyclones potentially important modulators of the climate by affecting heat transport in the ocean-atmosphere system. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that the rate of warming increases with cyclone intensity. This, together with a predicted shift in the distribution of cyclones toward higher intensities as climate warms, suggests the ocean will get even warmer, possibly leading to a positive feedback.

The 2014/15 Warm Anomaly in the Southern California Current - Physical and Biological Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ralf, G.

2016-02-01

The 2014/15 Warm Anomaly (WarmA) off Southern California manifested itself in the summer of 2014 as an anomalously warm surface layer in the Southern Calif. Bight with low concentrations of Chl a. This layer intensified in spatial extent, covering the entire CalCOFI surface area by the winter of 2015 with temperature anomalies 3 StDev larger than long-term averages. Concentrations of nutrients, phytoplankton biomass and rates of primary production were extremely low during the WarmA. The evolution of the WarmA as well as the 2015/16 El Niño with time will be compared to the evolution of the weak and strong El Niño's observed over the last 60 years. These events provide unique insights in the controls of phytoplankton biomass and production in the southern California Current System. Preliminary analyses suggest that the response of the phytoplankton community to the WarmA was consistent with responses to similar forcing during the prior decade. This presentation is based on data collected during the quarterly CalCOFI cruises by the CalCOFI and the CCE-LTER groups.

Lower-limb warming improves sleep quality in elderly people living in nursing homes.

PubMed

Oshima-Saeki, Chika; Taniho, Yuiko; Arita, Hiromi; Fujimoto, Etsuko

2017-01-01

Sleep disturbances are common in older people. This study was conducted to examine the effects of a hot pack, which was used to warm the lower limbs, on the sleep of elderly people living in a nursing home. This is a prospective cohort involving seven elderly women. Subjects aged 74-93 years old were treated by warming the lower limbs for 40 minutes using hot packs every night over 8 weeks. A hot pack made of a dense polymer and warmed in a microwave oven was used as a warming device. In the first and last week, the subjects were required to wear an activity monitor to determine their sleep-awake status. During the second to ninth week, they received limb-warming treatment by a hot pack heated to 42ºC for 40 min every night. Surface skin temperature data were collected by thermographic measurement. As a result, lower-limb warming by a hot pack significantly improved the quality of sleep in the subjects. During warming, the surface temperature of the hands and face rose by approximately 0.5-1.5ºC. This study showed that lower-limb warming with a hot pack reduced sleep latency and wake episodes after sleep onset; thus, improving the quality of sleep in elderly people living in a nursing home.

North Atlantic Surface Winds Examined as the Source of Warm Advection into Europe in Winter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, J.; Angell, J. K.; Ardizzone, J.; Atlas, Robert; Schubert, S.; Starr, D.; Wu, M.-L.

2002-01-01

When from the southwest, North Atlantic ocean surface winds are known to bring warm and moist airmasses into central Europe in winter. By tracing backward trajectories from western Europe, we establish that these airmasses originate in the southwestern North Atlantic, in the very warm regions of the Gulf Stream. Over the eastern North Atlantic, Lt the gateway to Europe, the ocean-surface winds changed directions in the second half of the XXth century, those from the northwest and from the southeast becoming so infrequent, that the direction from the southwest became even more dominant. For the January-to-March period, the strength of south-westerlies in this region, as well as in the source region, shows in the years 1948-1995 a significant increase, above 0.2 m/sec/ decade. Based on the sensitivity of the surface temperature in Europe, slightly more than 1 C for a 1m/sec increase in the southwesterly wind, found in the previous studies, the trend in the warm advection accounts for a large part of the warming in Europe established for this period in several reports. However, for the most recent years, 1996-2001, the positive trend in the southwesterly advection appears to be is broken, which is consistent with unseasonally cold events reported in Europe in those winters. This study had, some bearing on evaluating the respective roles of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Greenhouse Gas Global warming, GGG, in the strong winter warming observed for about half a century over the northern-latitude continents. Changes in the ocean-surface temperatures induced by GGG may have produced the dominant southwesterly direction of the North Atlantic winds. However, this implies a monotonically (apart from inherent interannual variability) increasing advection, and if the break in the trend which we observe after 1995 persists, this mechanism is counter-indicated. The 1948-1995 trend in the south-westerlies could then be considered to a large degree attributable to the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Oceanographic Changes through the Early Triassic Crisis Interval

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Algeo, T. J.

2013-12-01

Recent studies of diverse paleoceanographic proxies have provided the basis for reconstructing in some detail oceanographic changes during the end-Permian mass extinction and through the ~5-million-year-long Early Triassic crisis interval. Conodont δ18O records have demonstrated strong warming, to tropical sea-surface temperatures as high as 40oC, during the Griesbachian to Dienerian substages1-2. The crisis interval also was associated with major perturbations in the marine carbon and sulfur cycles. Three episodes of strong warming coincided with decreases in marine carbonate δ13C and marine sulfate δ34S 3, as well as increases in Δδ13Cvert4 and enhanced subaerial weathering fluxes5-6. Lower δ13Ccarb and δ34Ssulf values are indicative of more limited burial of reduced C and S in organic carbon and pyrite, consistent with declines in marine productivity and bacterial sulfate reduction3. Increased Δδ13Cvert is indicative of intensified stratification of the oceanic water column4, and increased subaerial weathering fluxes probably reflect higher soil reaction rates and possibly an intensified hydrologic cycle5-6. Collectively, these patterns are indicative of the globally integrated response of marine and terrestrial regimes to episodic perturbations in the form of extreme warming events1-2,7. These warming events may have been triggered by major volcanic eruptions8, as suggested by recent studies of volcanic ash layers9-10 and rare earth elements11 in South China P-Tr boundary sections. The ~2-million-year-long Early Triassic interval of extreme sea-surface temperatures came to an abrupt end around the Smithian-Spathian boundary1-2. Cooling coincided with a sharp decline in Δδ13Cvert due to stronger vertical overturning circulation4 and a major positive excursion in δ13Ccarb due to increased marine productivity related to greater mixing of nutrients into the ocean-surface layer12. The late Spathian was characterized by a final, weaker episode of sea-surface warming and attendant effects prior to the cessation of external perturbations to the marine system around the Early/Middle Triassic boundary. These oceanographic changes conform closely to the pattern and tempo of marine ecosystem recovery during the Early Triassic13. 1Sun, Y., et al., 2012, Science 338:366-370. 2Romano, C., et al., 2013, Nature Geosci. 6:57-60. 3Luo, G.M., et al., 2010, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 300:101-111. 4Song, H.Y., et al., 2013, Global Planet. Change 105:7-20. 5Algeo, T.J., Twitchett, R.J., 2010, Geology 38:1023-1026. 6Algeo, T.J., et al., 2011, Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol. 308:1-11. 7Yin, H.F., et al., 2012, Earth-Sci. Rev. 115:163-172. 8Xie, S.C., et al., 2010, Geology 38:447-450. 9Shen, J., et al., 2012, Geology 40:963-966. 10Shen, J., et al., 2012, Geobiology 10:82-103. 11Zhao, L., et al., 2013, Global Planet. Change 105:135-151. 12Tong, J.N., et al., 2007, Geol. Jour. 42:371-389. 13Chen, Z.Q., Benton, M.J., 2012, Nature Geosci. 5:375-383.

Adjusting Mitigation Pathways to Stabilize Climate at 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodwin, Philip; Brown, Sally; Haigh, Ivan David; Nicholls, Robert James; Matter, Juerg M.

2018-03-01

To avoid the most dangerous consequences of anthropogenic climate change, the Paris Agreement provides a clear and agreed climate mitigation target of stabilizing global surface warming to under 2.0°C above preindustrial, and preferably closer to 1.5°C. However, policy makers do not currently know exactly what carbon emissions pathways to follow to stabilize warming below these agreed targets, because there is large uncertainty in future temperature rise for any given pathway. This large uncertainty makes it difficult for a cautious policy maker to avoid either: (1) allowing warming to exceed the agreed target or (2) cutting global emissions more than is required to satisfy the agreed target, and their associated societal costs. This study presents a novel Adjusting Mitigation Pathway (AMP) approach to restrict future warming to policy-driven targets, in which future emissions reductions are not fully determined now but respond to future surface warming each decade in a self-adjusting manner. A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self-adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5°C to 4.5°C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification. We find that lower 21st century warming targets will significantly reduce ocean acidification this century, and will avoid up to 4 m of sea-level rise by year 2300 relative to a high-end scenario.

Spatiotemporal variability in surface energy balance across tundra, snow and ice in Greenland.

PubMed

Lund, Magnus; Stiegler, Christian; Abermann, Jakob; Citterio, Michele; Hansen, Birger U; van As, Dirk

2017-02-01

The surface energy balance (SEB) is essential for understanding the coupled cryosphere-atmosphere system in the Arctic. In this study, we investigate the spatiotemporal variability in SEB across tundra, snow and ice. During the snow-free period, the main energy sink for ice sites is surface melt. For tundra, energy is used for sensible and latent heat flux and soil heat flux leading to permafrost thaw. Longer snow-free period increases melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and glaciers and may promote tundra permafrost thaw. During winter, clouds have a warming effect across surface types whereas during summer clouds have a cooling effect over tundra and a warming effect over ice, reflecting the spatial variation in albedo. The complex interactions between factors affecting SEB across surface types remain a challenge for understanding current and future conditions. Extended monitoring activities coupled with modelling efforts are essential for assessing the impact of warming in the Arctic.

The Response of Phanerozoic Surface Temperature to Variations in Atmospheric Oxygen Concentration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Payne, R. C.; Britt, A. V.; Chen, H.; Kasting, J. F.; Catling, D. C.

2016-12-01

Recently, Poulsen et al. (2015) suggested that O2 has played a major role in climate forcing during the Phanerozoic. Specifically, they argued that decreased O2 levels during the Cenomanian stage of the mid-Cretaceous (94-100 Ma) could help explain the extremely warm climate during that time. The postulated warming mechanism involves decreased Rayleigh scattering by a thinner atmosphere, which reduces the planetary albedo and allows greater surface warming. This warming effect is then amplified by cloud feedbacks within their 3-D climate model. This increase in shortwave surface forcing, in their calculations, exceeds any decrease in the greenhouse effect caused by decreased O2, so that surface temperature increases by 2.1 K with low oxygen. Here, we use a 1-D radiative-convective climate model (with no cloud feedbacks) to check their results. We also include a self-consistent calculation of the change in atmospheric ozone and its effect on climate. Our results are opposite to those of Poulsen et al.: we find that the climate warms by 1.4 K at 35% O2 concentrations as a result of increased pressure broadening of CO2 and H2O absorption lines, and cools by 0.8 K at 10% O2 as a result of decreased pressure broadening. The surface temperature changes are only about 1 K either way, though, for reasonable variations in Phanerozoic O2 concentrations (10% - 35% by volume), and the Poulsen et al. (2016) results appear to be largely driven by cloud feedbacks in their model. Hence, it seems unlikely that changes in atmospheric O2 account for the warm climate of the Cenomanian. Other factors, such as a higher-than-expected sensitivity of climate to increased CO2 concentrations, may be required to obtain agreement with the paleoclimate data.

Regional Contrasts of the Warming Rate over Land Significantly Depend on the Calculation Methods of Mean Air Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kaicun; Zhou, Chunlüe

2016-04-01

Global analyses of surface mean air temperature (Tm) are key datasets for climate change studies and provide fundamental evidences for global warming. However, the causes of regional contrasts in the warming rate revealed by such datasets, i.e., enhanced warming rates over the northern high latitudes and the "warming hole" over the central U.S., are still under debate. Here we show these regional contrasts depends on the calculation methods of Tm. Existing global analyses calculated Tm from daily minimum and maximum temperatures (T2). We found that T2 has a significant standard deviation error of 0.23 °C/decade in depicting the regional warming rate from 2000 to 2013 but can be reduced by two-thirds using Tm calculated from observations at four specific times (T4), which samples diurnal cycle of land surface air temperature more often. From 1973 to 1997, compared with T4, T2 significantly underestimated the warming rate over the central U.S. and overestimated the warming rate over the northern high latitudes. The ratio of the warming rate over China to that over the U.S. reduces from 2.3 by T2 to 1.4 by T4. This study shows that the studies of regional warming can be substantially improved by T4 instead of T2.

Suppressed mid-latitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Q.

2016-12-01

Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heatwaves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature (SST) warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH mid-latitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH mid-latitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.

Potential vorticity regimes over East Asia during winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Wenyu; Chen, Ruyan; Wang, Bin; Wright, Jonathon S.; Yang, Zifan; Ma, Wenqian

2017-02-01

Nine potential vorticity (PV) regimes over East Asia are identified by applying a Self-Organizing Map and Hierarchical Ascendant Classification regime analysis to the daily PV reanalysis fields on the 300 K isentropic surface for December-March 1948-2014. According to the surface temperature anomalies over East Asia, these nine regimes are further classified into three classes, i.e., cold class (three regimes), warm class (four regimes), and neutral class (two regimes). The PV-based East Asian winter monsoon index (EAWMI) is used to study the relationship between PV distributions and the temperature anomalies. The magnitude of cold (warm) anomalies over the land areas of East Asia increases (decreases) quasi-linearly with the EAWMI. Regression analysis reveals that cold temperature anomalies preferentially occur when the EAWMI exceeds a threshold at ˜0.2 PVU (where 1 PVU ≡ 10-6 m2 K kg-1 s-1). PV inversion uncovers the mechanisms behind the relationships between the PV regimes and surface temperature anomalies and reveals that cold (warm) PV regimes are associated with significant warming (cooling) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. On average, cold regimes have longer durations than warm regimes. Interclass transition probabilities are much higher for paths from warm/neutral regimes to cold regimes than for paths from cold regimes to warm/neutral regimes. Besides, intraclass transitions are rare within the warm or neutral regimes. The PV regime analysis provides insight into the causes of severe cold spells over East Asia, with blocking circulation patterns identified as the primary factor in initiating and maintaining these cold spells.

Observed high-altitude warming and snow cover retreat over Tibet and the Himalayas enhanced by black carbon aerosols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Y.; Ramanathan, V.; Washington, W. M.

Himalayan mountain glaciers and the snowpack over the Tibetan Plateau provide the headwater of several major rivers in Asia. In situ observations of snow cover extent since the 1960s suggest that the snowpack in the region have retreated significantly, accompanied by a surface warming of 2–2.5°C observed over the peak altitudes (5000 m). Using a high-resolution ocean–atmosphere global climate model and an observationally constrained black carbon (BC) aerosol forcing, we attribute the observed altitude dependence of the warming trends as well as the spatial pattern of reductions in snow depths and snow cover extent to various anthropogenic factors. At themore » Tibetan Plateau altitudes, the increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration exerted a warming of 1.7°C, BC 1.3°C where as cooling aerosols cause about 0.7°C cooling, bringing the net simulated warming consistent with the anomalously large observed warming. We therefore conclude that BC together with CO 2 has contributed to the snow retreat trends. In particular, BC increase is the major factor in the strong elevation dependence of the observed surface warming. The atmospheric warming by BC as well as its surface darkening of snow is coupled with the positive snow albedo feedbacks to account for the disproportionately large role of BC in high-elevation regions. Here, these findings reveal that BC impact needs to be properly accounted for in future regional climate projections, in particular on high-altitude cryosphere.« less

Observed high-altitude warming and snow cover retreat over Tibet and the Himalayas enhanced by black carbon aerosols

DOE PAGES

Xu, Y.; Ramanathan, V.; Washington, W. M.

2016-02-05

Himalayan mountain glaciers and the snowpack over the Tibetan Plateau provide the headwater of several major rivers in Asia. In situ observations of snow cover extent since the 1960s suggest that the snowpack in the region have retreated significantly, accompanied by a surface warming of 2–2.5°C observed over the peak altitudes (5000 m). Using a high-resolution ocean–atmosphere global climate model and an observationally constrained black carbon (BC) aerosol forcing, we attribute the observed altitude dependence of the warming trends as well as the spatial pattern of reductions in snow depths and snow cover extent to various anthropogenic factors. At themore » Tibetan Plateau altitudes, the increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration exerted a warming of 1.7°C, BC 1.3°C where as cooling aerosols cause about 0.7°C cooling, bringing the net simulated warming consistent with the anomalously large observed warming. We therefore conclude that BC together with CO 2 has contributed to the snow retreat trends. In particular, BC increase is the major factor in the strong elevation dependence of the observed surface warming. The atmospheric warming by BC as well as its surface darkening of snow is coupled with the positive snow albedo feedbacks to account for the disproportionately large role of BC in high-elevation regions. Here, these findings reveal that BC impact needs to be properly accounted for in future regional climate projections, in particular on high-altitude cryosphere.« less

Warming of subarctic tundra increases emissions of all three important greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide.

PubMed

Voigt, Carolina; Lamprecht, Richard E; Marushchak, Maija E; Lind, Saara E; Novakovskiy, Alexander; Aurela, Mika; Martikainen, Pertti J; Biasi, Christina

2017-08-01

Rapidly rising temperatures in the Arctic might cause a greater release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere. To study the effect of warming on GHG dynamics, we deployed open-top chambers in a subarctic tundra site in Northeast European Russia. We determined carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes as well as the concentration of those gases, inorganic nitrogen (N) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) along the soil profile. Studied tundra surfaces ranged from mineral to organic soils and from vegetated to unvegetated areas. As a result of air warming, the seasonal GHG budget of the vegetated tundra surfaces shifted from a GHG sink of -300 to -198 g CO 2 -eq m -2 to a source of 105 to 144 g CO 2 -eq m -2 . At bare peat surfaces, we observed increased release of all three GHGs. While the positive warming response was dominated by CO 2 , we provide here the first in situ evidence of increasing N 2 O emissions from tundra soils with warming. Warming promoted N 2 O release not only from bare peat, previously identified as a strong N 2 O source, but also from the abundant, vegetated peat surfaces that do not emit N 2 O under present climate. At these surfaces, elevated temperatures had an adverse effect on plant growth, resulting in lower plant N uptake and, consequently, better N availability for soil microbes. Although the warming was limited to the soil surface and did not alter thaw depth, it increased concentrations of DOC, CO 2, and CH 4 in the soil down to the permafrost table. This can be attributed to downward DOC leaching, fueling microbial activity at depth. Taken together, our results emphasize the tight linkages between plant and soil processes, and different soil layers, which need to be taken into account when predicting the climate change feedback of the Arctic. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Low clouds suppress Arctic air formation and amplify high-latitude continental winter warming.

PubMed

Cronin, Timothy W; Tziperman, Eli

2015-09-15

High-latitude continents have warmed much more rapidly in recent decades than the rest of the globe, especially in winter, and the maintenance of warm, frost-free conditions in continental interiors in winter has been a long-standing problem of past equable climates. We use an idealized single-column atmospheric model across a range of conditions to study the polar night process of air mass transformation from high-latitude maritime air, with a prescribed initial temperature profile, to much colder high-latitude continental air. We find that a low-cloud feedback--consisting of a robust increase in the duration of optically thick liquid clouds with warming of the initial state--slows radiative cooling of the surface and amplifies continental warming. This low-cloud feedback increases the continental surface air temperature by roughly two degrees for each degree increase of the initial maritime surface air temperature, effectively suppressing Arctic air formation. The time it takes for the surface air temperature to drop below freezing increases nonlinearly to ∼ 10 d for initial maritime surface air temperatures of 20 °C. These results, supplemented by an analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 climate model runs that shows large increases in cloud water path and surface cloud longwave forcing in warmer climates, suggest that the "lapse rate feedback" in simulations of anthropogenic climate change may be related to the influence of low clouds on the stratification of the lower troposphere. The results also indicate that optically thick stratus cloud decks could help to maintain frost-free winter continental interiors in equable climates.

Low clouds suppress Arctic air formation and amplify high-latitude continental winter warming

PubMed Central

Cronin, Timothy W.; Tziperman, Eli

2015-01-01

High-latitude continents have warmed much more rapidly in recent decades than the rest of the globe, especially in winter, and the maintenance of warm, frost-free conditions in continental interiors in winter has been a long-standing problem of past equable climates. We use an idealized single-column atmospheric model across a range of conditions to study the polar night process of air mass transformation from high-latitude maritime air, with a prescribed initial temperature profile, to much colder high-latitude continental air. We find that a low-cloud feedback—consisting of a robust increase in the duration of optically thick liquid clouds with warming of the initial state—slows radiative cooling of the surface and amplifies continental warming. This low-cloud feedback increases the continental surface air temperature by roughly two degrees for each degree increase of the initial maritime surface air temperature, effectively suppressing Arctic air formation. The time it takes for the surface air temperature to drop below freezing increases nonlinearly to ∼10 d for initial maritime surface air temperatures of 20 °C. These results, supplemented by an analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 climate model runs that shows large increases in cloud water path and surface cloud longwave forcing in warmer climates, suggest that the “lapse rate feedback” in simulations of anthropogenic climate change may be related to the influence of low clouds on the stratification of the lower troposphere. The results also indicate that optically thick stratus cloud decks could help to maintain frost-free winter continental interiors in equable climates. PMID:26324919

Rapid warming of the world's lakes: Interdecadal variability and long-term trends from 1910-2009 using in situ and remotely sensed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenters, J. D.; Read, J. S.; Sharma, S.; O'Reilly, C.; Hampton, S. E.; Gray, D.; McIntyre, P. B.; Hook, S. J.; Schneider, P.; Soylu, M. E.; Barabás, N.; Lofton, D. D.

2014-12-01

Global and regional changes in climate have important implications for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Recent studies, for example, have revealed significant warming of inland water bodies throughout the world. To better understand the global patterns, physical mechanisms, and ecological implications of lake warming, an initiative known as the "Global Lake Temperature Collaboration" (GLTC) was started in 2010, with the objective of compiling and analyzing lake temperature data from numerous satellite and in situ records dating back at least 20-30 years. The GLTC project has now assembled data from over 300 lakes, with some in situ records extending back more than 100 years. Here, we present an analysis of the long-term warming trends, interdecadal variability, and a direct comparison between in situ and remotely sensed lake surface temperature for the 3-month summer period July-September (January-March for some lakes). The overall results show consistent, long-term trends of increasing summer-mean lake surface temperature across most but not all sites. Lakes with especially long records show accelerated warming in the most recent two to three decades, with almost half of the lakes warming at rates in excess of 0.5 °C per decade during the period 1985-2009, and a few even exceeding 1.0 °C per decade. Both satellite and in situ data show a similar distribution of warming trends, and a direct comparison at lake sites that have both types of data reveals a close correspondence in mean summer water temperature, interannual variability, and long-term trends. Finally, we examine standardized lake surface temperature anomalies across the full 100-year period (1910-2009), and in conjunction with similar timeseries of air temperature. The results reveal a close correspondence between summer air temperature and lake surface temperature on interannual and interdecadal timescales, but with many lakes warming more rapidly than the ambient air temperature over 25- to 100-year periods.

The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing

PubMed Central

Marshall, John; Armour, Kyle C.; Scott, Jeffery R.; Kostov, Yavor; Hausmann, Ute; Ferreira, David; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Bitz, Cecilia M.

2014-01-01

In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. We argue here that interhemispheric asymmetries in the mean ocean circulation, with sinking in the northern North Atlantic and upwelling around Antarctica, strongly influence the sea-surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, accelerating warming in the Arctic while delaying it in the Antarctic. Furthermore, while the amplitude of GHG forcing has been similar at the poles, significant ozone depletion only occurs over Antarctica. We suggest that the initial response of SST around Antarctica to ozone depletion is one of cooling and only later adds to the GHG-induced warming trend as upwelling of sub-surface warm water associated with stronger surface westerlies impacts surface properties. We organize our discussion around ‘climate response functions’ (CRFs), i.e. the response of the climate to ‘step’ changes in anthropogenic forcing in which GHG and/or ozone-hole forcing is abruptly turned on and the transient response of the climate revealed and studied. Convolutions of known or postulated GHG and ozone-hole forcing functions with their respective CRFs then yield the transient forced SST response (implied by linear response theory), providing a context for discussion of the differing warming/cooling trends in the Arctic and Antarctic. We speculate that the period through which we are now passing may be one in which the delayed warming of SST associated with GHG forcing around Antarctica is largely cancelled by the cooling effects associated with the ozone hole. By mid-century, however, ozone-hole effects may instead be adding to GHG warming around Antarctica but with diminished amplitude as the ozone hole heals. The Arctic, meanwhile, responding to GHG forcing but in a manner amplified by ocean heat transport, may continue to warm at an accelerating rate. PMID:24891392

Understanding the El Niño-like Oceanic Response in the Tropical Pacific to Global Warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

The enhanced central and eastern Pacific SST warming and the associated ocean processes under global warming are investigated using the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2). The tropical SST warming pattern in the coupled CESM can be faithfully reproduced by the POP2 forced with surface fluxes computed using the aerodynamic bulk formula. By prescribing the wind stress and/or wind speed through the bulk formula, the effects of wind stress change and/or the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback are isolated and their linearity is evaluated in this ocean-alone setting. Result shows that, although themore » weakening of the equatorial easterlies contributes positively to the El Niño-like SST warming, 80% of which can be simulated by the POP2 without considering the effects of wind change in both mechanical and thermodynamic fluxes. This result points to the importance of the air-sea thermal interaction and the relative feebleness of the ocean dynamical process in the El Niño-like equatorial Pacific SST response to global warming. On the other hand, the wind stress change is found to play a dominant role in the oceanic response in the tropical Pacific, accounting for most of the changes in the equatorial ocean current system and thermal structures, including the weakening of the surface westward currents, the enhancement of the near-surface stratification and the shoaling of the equatorial thermocline. Interestingly, greenhouse gas warming in the absence of wind stress change and WES feedback also contributes substantially to the changes at the subsurface equatorial Pacific. Further, this warming impact can be largely replicated by an idealized ocean experiment forced by a uniform surface heat flux, whereby, arguably, a purest form of oceanic dynamical thermostat is revealed.« less

The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing.

PubMed

Marshall, John; Armour, Kyle C; Scott, Jeffery R; Kostov, Yavor; Hausmann, Ute; Ferreira, David; Shepherd, Theodore G; Bitz, Cecilia M

2014-07-13

In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. We argue here that interhemispheric asymmetries in the mean ocean circulation, with sinking in the northern North Atlantic and upwelling around Antarctica, strongly influence the sea-surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, accelerating warming in the Arctic while delaying it in the Antarctic. Furthermore, while the amplitude of GHG forcing has been similar at the poles, significant ozone depletion only occurs over Antarctica. We suggest that the initial response of SST around Antarctica to ozone depletion is one of cooling and only later adds to the GHG-induced warming trend as upwelling of sub-surface warm water associated with stronger surface westerlies impacts surface properties. We organize our discussion around 'climate response functions' (CRFs), i.e. the response of the climate to 'step' changes in anthropogenic forcing in which GHG and/or ozone-hole forcing is abruptly turned on and the transient response of the climate revealed and studied. Convolutions of known or postulated GHG and ozone-hole forcing functions with their respective CRFs then yield the transient forced SST response (implied by linear response theory), providing a context for discussion of the differing warming/cooling trends in the Arctic and Antarctic. We speculate that the period through which we are now passing may be one in which the delayed warming of SST associated with GHG forcing around Antarctica is largely cancelled by the cooling effects associated with the ozone hole. By mid-century, however, ozone-hole effects may instead be adding to GHG warming around Antarctica but with diminished amplitude as the ozone hole heals. The Arctic, meanwhile, responding to GHG forcing but in a manner amplified by ocean heat transport, may continue to warm at an accelerating rate.

The impact of an extreme case of irrigation on the southeastern United States climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selman, Christopher; Misra, Vasubandhu

2017-02-01

The impacts of irrigation on southeast United States diurnal climate are investigated using simulations from a regional climate model. An extreme case is assumed, wherein irrigation is set to 100 % of field capacity over the growing season of May through October. Irrigation is applied to the root zone layers of 10-40 and 40-100 cm soil layers only. It is found that in this regime there is a pronounced decrease in monthly averaged temperatures in irrigated regions across all months. In non-irrigated areas a slight warming is simulated. Diurnal maximum temperatures in irrigated areas warm, while diurnal minimum temperatures cool. The daytime warming is attributed to an increase in shortwave flux at the surface owing to diminished low cloud cover. Nighttime and daily mean cooling result as a consequence repartitioning of energy into latent heat flux over sensible heat flux, and of a higher net downward ground heat flux. Excess heat is transported into the deep soil layer, preventing a rapidly intensifying positive feedback loop. Both diurnal and monthly average precipitations are reduced over irrigated areas at a magnitude and spatial pattern similar to one another. Due to the excess moisture availability, evaporation is seen to increase, but this is nearly balanced by a corresponding reduction in sensible heat flux. Concomitant with additional moisture availability is an increase in both transient and stationary moisture flux convergences. However, despite the increase, there is a large-scale stabilization of the atmosphere stemming from a cooled surface.

Hydrographic Conditions in the Gulf of Carpentaria During Australian Monsoon Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inoue, M.; Steinberg, C.; Wolanski, E.; Ridd, P.

2002-12-01

Gulf of Carpentaria located in the northern Australia, is a shallow wide basin with the deepest bottom depths of approximately 60 m. It is connected to Arafura Sea to the north and west, and to the Torres Strait to the east. Hydrographic surveys of the Gulf of Carpentaria were carried out in January and March, 1987 as part of Australian Monsoon Experiment. During the January survey, Tropical Cyclone (TC) Irma was formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria. An east-west CTD section at 13o52'S was occupied twice, one prior to and during, and the other after the formation of TC Irma. In addition, two post-Irma east-west sections were occupied at 12o40'S and 11o30'S. The pre-cyclone section indicates a well-defined stratified two-layer system, while the post-cyclone sections show deepening of the surface warm layer due to significant mixing by TC Irma. Overall, significant cooling of near surface warm water on the order of more than 1oC was observed. Significant heat loss estimated for the water column has presumably contributed toward the development of TC Irma. In February 1987, TC Jason was formed in the gulf. During the March survey, two east-west CTD sections were occupied at 11o30'S and 13o52'S. The March survey reveals notable warming of the bottom water. Detailed discussion of the CTD data from the two cruises will be presented.

Climatic Implications of the Observed Temperature Dependence of the Liquid Water Path of Low Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DelGenio, Anthony

1999-01-01

The uncertainty in the global climate sensitivity to an equilibrium doubling of carbon dioxide is often stated to be 1.5-4.5 K, largely due to uncertainties in cloud feedbacks. The lower end of this range is based on the assumption or prediction in some GCMs that cloud liquid water behaves adiabatically, thus implying that cloud optical thickness will increase in a warming climate if the physical thickness of clouds is invariant. Satellite observations of low-level cloud optical thickness and liquid water path have challenged this assumption, however, at low and middle latitudes. We attempt to explain the satellite results using four years of surface remote sensing data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Cloud And Radiation Testbed (CART) site in the Southern Great Plains. We find that low cloud liquid water path is insensitive to temperature in winter but strongly decreases with temperature in summer. The latter occurs because surface relative humidity decreases with warming, causing cloud base to rise and clouds to geometrically thin. Meanwhile, inferred liquid water contents hardly vary with temperature, suggesting entrainment depletion. Physically, the temperature dependence appears to represent a transition from higher probabilities of stratified boundary layers at cold temperatures to a higher incidence of convective boundary layers at warm temperatures. The combination of our results and the earlier satellite findings imply that the minimum climate sensitivity should be revised upward from 1.5 K.

An atmospheric origin of the multi-decadal bipolar seesaw.

PubMed

Wang, Zhaomin; Zhang, Xiangdong; Guan, Zhaoyong; Sun, Bo; Yang, Xin; Liu, Chengyan

2015-03-10

A prominent feature of recent climatic change is the strong Arctic surface warming that is contemporaneous with broad cooling over much of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. Longer global surface temperature observations suggest that this contrasting pole-to-pole change could be a manifestation of a multi-decadal interhemispheric or bipolar seesaw pattern, which is well correlated with the North Atlantic sea surface temperature variability, and thus generally hypothesized to originate from Atlantic meridional overturning circulation oscillations. Here, we show that there is an atmospheric origin for this seesaw pattern. The results indicate that the Southern Ocean surface cooling (warming) associated with the seesaw pattern is attributable to the strengthening (weakening) of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies, which can be traced to Northern Hemisphere and tropical tropospheric warming (cooling). Antarctic ozone depletion has been suggested to be an important driving force behind the recently observed increase in the Southern Hemisphere's summer westerly winds; our results imply that Northern Hemisphere and tropical warming may have played a triggering role at an stage earlier than the first detectable Antarctic ozone depletion, and enhanced Antarctic ozone depletion through decreasing the lower stratospheric temperature.

Physical Mechanism of the Surface Air Temperature Variability in Korea and Near Seven-Day Oscillations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, K.; Roh, J.

2009-12-01

The first three principal modes of wintertime surface temperature variability in Seoul, Korea (126.59°E, 37.33°N) are extracted from the 1979-2008 observed records via cyclostationary EOF (CSEOF) analysis. Then, physically consistent patterns of several key physical variables over East Asia (97.5°-152.5°E×22.5°-72.5°N) are derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in order to understand the physical and dynamical mechanisms of the derived CSEOF modes. The first mode represents the seasonal cycle, the principle physical mechanism of which is associated with the continent/ocean sea level pressure contrast. The second mode mainly describes overall wintertime warming or cooling. The third mode depicts subseasonal fluctuations of surface temperature. Sea level pressure anomalies to the west of Korea (eastern China) and those with an opposite sign to the east of Korea (Japan) are a major physical mechanism both for the second mode and the third mode. These sea level pressure anomalies with opposite signs alter the amount of warm air to the south of Korea, which, in turn, varies the surface temperature in Korea. The PC time series of the seasonal cycle is significantly correlated with the East Asian winter monsoon index and exhibits a conspicuous downward trend. The PC time series of the second mode exhibits a positive trend. These trends imply that the wintertime surface temperature in Korea has increased and the seasonal cycle has weakened gradually in the past 30 years; the sign of greenhouse warming is clear in both PC time series. The seasonal cycle has decreased since the impact of warming as reflected in the sea level pressure change is much stronger over the continent than over the ocean; greater sea level pressure decrease over the continent than over the ocean reduces the wintertime sea level pressure contrast between the continent and the ocean thereby weakening the seasonal cycle. The ~7-day oscillations, also called the three-cold-day/four-warm-day events, are clearly seen in the second and the third CSEOF modes. The ~7-day oscillations are a major component of high-frequency variability in much of the analysis domain and are a manifestation of Rossby waves. Rossby waves aloft result in the concerted variation of physical variables in the atmospheric column; the nature of this response is of nearly barotropic and is clearly felt at the surface. Due to the stronger mean zonal wind, the disturbances by Rossby waves propagate eastward at ~8-12 m/sec; the passing of Rossby waves with alternating signs produces the ~7-day temperature oscillations in Korea. Thus, it is the speed of eastward propagation of Rossby waves not the phase speed of Rossby waves that determines the period of oscillations.

Distribution of living radiolarians and its response on the environments in spring from the section South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, L.; Hu, W.; Chen, M.; Zeng, L.; Xiang, R.; Zhou, W.

2013-12-01

The composition and spatial (horizontal and vertical) distribution of living radiolarians in spring was firstly studied in the section (18°N and 113°E) South China Sea. Vertical plankton tows were collected at depth-intervals from 0 to 300 m in spring using a closing-type net with 62 um mesh size. And we distinguished the living specimens by staining with Rose Bengal. It dominated by tropical-subtropical warm species in spring from the studied areas. The abundance of nassellarians was the almost same as that of spumellarians in the upper-surface waters (0-25m). In the below-surface waters (25-50m), nassellarian abundance was the almost twice that of spumellarians. And the abundances generally decreased with depth (more than 50m), but nasselarian abundance reduced more quickly. The results showed that the horizontal and vertical distribution patterns of living radiolarians were closely related to the mesoscale eddies. The horizontal distributions of radiolarian abundance were uneven and pachy, which may be related to the complicated mecoscale eddies during the sampling period. That is, there were comparatively high abundances in the upper-surface waters where had the cold eddies development. But in the cold eddies of Meigong River mouth, radiolarian abundance was low due to the large input of fresh water, suggesting that low salinity had more important influence than the nutrient on the radiolarian development and reproduction. Vertically, the highest abundances occurred at the mixed layer in the cold eddies, and gradually decreased with depth. However, in the warm eddies, the maximum abundances were in the thermocline layers, where had an abundant supply of nutrients for radiolarians. This study showed that Didymocyrtis tetrathalamus tetrathalamus mostly occurred at the mixed layer, which should be closely related to the cold eddies and rich nutrition and be limited by the fresh water. Based on the distribution of Didymocyrtis tetrathalamus tetrathalamus, we concluded that the influence of west Pacific waters was obviously weak on the northwestern Luzon Island during the sampling period. As a tropical surface warm species, Tetrapyle octacantha was also found to be indicator of tropical upwelling eutrophication water. Acanthodesmia vinculata was mainly living in the mixed layer, and had a good response to the cold eddies far away the continental shelf. Besides, we also concluded that Siphonosphaera polysiphonia should be tropical surface warm species, having a gregarious life, which had a closely related to the warm eddies. Interestingly, the typical deep-dwellers (Cornutella profunda and Cyrtopera laguncula) occurred in the different depth intervals, even in the upper-surface waters, which suggested that the temperature might not be the mostly one of factors to control their living-depth. This study was funded by the following research programs: the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41276051, 91228207, 40906030).

Global Warming - Are We on Thin Ice?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tucker, Compton J.

2007-01-01

The evidence for global warming is very conclusive for the past 400-500 years. Prior to the 16th century, proxy surface temperature data are regionally good but lack a global distribution. The speaker will review surface temperature reconstruction based upon ice cores, coral cores, tree rings, deep sea sediments, and bore holes and discuss the controversy surrounding global warming. This will be contrasted with the excellent data we have from the satellite era of earth observations the past 30+ years that enables the quantitative study of climate across earth science disciplines.

Deviations of Atmospheric Coastal Flow from the Open-channel Hydraulics Analogy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahn, D. A.; Parish, T. R.; Juliano, T. W.

2017-12-01

Low-level atmospheric flow along the coast of California bears resemblance to open-channel engineering applications referred to as hydraulic flow. During the warm season, strong equatorward wind is common near the surface. A marked temperature inversion separates the cool, moist marine air and the warm, dry free troposphere aloft. The low-level flow is bounded laterally by the coastal topography. Given the high wind speed in the shallow marine layer, the flow is often supercritical (Fr > 1). Features resembling oblique compression jumps and expansion fans occur near concave and convex bends in the coastline and impact wind energy production, wind stress on the ocean surface, and propagation of electromagnetic waves by modifying the vertical refractivity gradient. An aircraft collected fine-scale measurements offshore of southern California to test how well the observed features conform to the single-layer hydraulic approximation. Although the open-channel framework captures major features of the flow as indicated by prior work, the detailed measurements reveal when the analogy breaks down. The assumption of a passive upper layer can be violated due to mesoscale pressure gradients aloft and lee troughing associated with offshore flow, which can enhance the thinning of the marine layer associated with the expansion fan. The sharp interface between layers can be eroded when Ri becomes low, Kelvin-Helmholtz instability develops, and the structure of the lower atmosphere is drastically altered. This is poorly simulated in operational weather forecast models due to their relatively coarse grid spacing. The layer associated with the expansion fan rarely keeps its identity into the Santa Barbara Channel. An increase of surface heat flux and vertical mixing as the flow moves over warmer sea surface temperatures in the channel rapidly erodes the layer. Only one flight captured a hydraulic jump between the supercritical flow in the expansion fan and the subcritical flow downstream, but its features correspond well to predicted values. The lack of hydraulic jumps on other days is likely due to the loss of layer identity before the jump can be realized.

Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming.

PubMed

Koven, Charles D; Ringeval, Bruno; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Ciais, Philippe; Cadule, Patricia; Khvorostyanov, Dmitry; Krinner, Gerhard; Tarnocai, Charles

2011-09-06

Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers, and CH(4) emissions from flooded areas, and which better matches new circumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks, to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO(2) by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100, the model response to combined CO(2) fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source, depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero, which is within the range of previous model estimates, to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85 + -16 Pg C, depending on processes included in the model, with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH(4)/y to 41-70 Tg CH(4)/y, with increases due to CO(2) fertilization, permafrost thaw, and warming-induced increased CH(4) flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent.

Quantification and Mitigation of Long-Term Impacts of Urbanization and Climate Change in the Tropical Coastal City of San Juan, Puerto Rico

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comarazamy, Daniel; Gonzalez, Jorge E.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.

2014-01-01

Urbanization, along with other cases of land cover and land use changes, has significant climate impacts in tropical regions with the added complexity of occurring within the context of global warming. The individual and combined effects of these two factors on the surface energy balance of a tropical city are investigated by use of an integrated atmospheric modeling approach, taking the San Juan Metropolitan Area (SJMA), Puerto Rico as the test case. To achieve this goal, an ensemble of climate and weather simulations is performed, with the climate scenarios combining urban development and sprawl with regional climate change over the past 50 years, and the short-term simulations designed to test the sensitivity to different urban vegetation configurations as mitigating alternatives. As indicator of change, we use the thermal response number (TRN), which is a measure of the sensible heating to the thermal storage of a surface or region, and the Bowen ratio, which is defined as the ratio of sensible to latent heat fluxes. The TRN of the area occupied by the SJMA has decreased as a consequence of replacing the low land coastal plain vegetation with man made materials, indicating that it takes less energy to raise the surface temperature of the urban area, whereas the TRN of forested regions has remained virtually unchanged. The global warming signal also has effects on the thermal response of the SJMA, where dryer current conditions generate lower TRN values. Differences due to global warming are more evident in the Bowen ratio pattern, mostly associated with the drier present conditions observed and its effects on sensible and latent heat fluxes. In terms of testing different mitigation strategies, the short-term simulations show that the urban area is more efficient in partitioning surface energy balance terms when green roofs are specified, as opposed to including vegetation inside the urban core.

Remote Correlation of Paleoceanographic Events in the Northern Parts of Bering and Barents Seas during the Termination I and Early Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanova, E. V.; Ovsepyan, E.; Murdmaa, I.; de Vernal, A.; Risebrobakken, B.; Seitkalieva, E.; Radionova, E.; Alekhina, G.

2014-12-01

The Barents and Bering seas are closely linked to the High Arctic and to the THC by marine gateways as well as by land-sea and ocean-atmosphere interactions. Our multi-proxy time series demonstrate that these remote seas exhibited dramatic changes during the deglaciation through a succession of global and regional paleoceanographic events including the beginning of Termination I (BT1), Heinrich-1 or Oldest Dryas (OD), Bølling-Allerød (B/A), Younger Dryas (YD) and early Holocene (EH). In the NW Barents Sea, the increased subsurface-to-bottom Atlantic water inflow via the Kvitøya-Erik Eriksen trough (cores S 2519 and S 2528) is inferred at the late OD, late B/A and late YD/EH transition. These events are generally coupled with the strengthened AMOC. A remarkable sea surface warming and sea ice retreat are documented at ~ 13 ka BP. Surface warming and strong Atlantic water inflow were followed by intense iceberg calving in the Erik Eriksen Trough as indicated by the high IRD content of Core S-2519. The rock fragments are unsorted and mainly angular suggesting their ice-rafted (likely iceberg-rafted) origin. Svalbard glaciers apparently derived the material dominated by black schistous mudstones, hard limestones with coral remains, fine-grained sandstones from nearby islands, and icebergs spread it in the Kvitøya-Erik Eriksen Trough during the early deglaciation. The ice rafted coarse terrigenous material supply during the BT1 is also suggested for the NW Bering Sea. In the NW Pacific, NW Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk, surface bioproductivity peaked at B/A and EH mainly due to the global warming, enhanced nutrient supply by surface currents from the flooded northeastern shelf, intensified vertical mixing and water exchange through the opened straits. Oxygen-depleted bottom water at intermediate depths characterized several locations including the NW Bering Sea (Core SO201-2-85KL).

The warming effect of the flare of natural gas on soil biological activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yevdokimov, Ilya; Yusupov, Irek; Shavnin, Sergey

2017-04-01

Simulation of global warming is one of the key issues of international efforts to study climatic changes. A number of manipulation experiments with soil warming have been established throughout the world in the last decades. We used warming with natural gas flare near the pine forest as a kind of manipulation experiment to assess the synergistic effect of drying and warming on plant-soil-microbial interactions. The experimental area is situated in a pine forest subzone of the forest zone of the Western Siberia near Pokachi, Yugra (61o73'N, 75o49'E). The experimental plots were established in a young Scotch pine forest on sandy podzolic soil at three distances of 70, 90 and 130 m from the flare of natural gas, with trees exposed to strong (S) moderate (M), and weak (W) impact, respectively. Increase of soil temperature in summer time were moderate: on average 0.7oC and 1.3oC for the plots M and S, respectively, compared to the plot W. The plot S demonstrated increase in CO2 efflux from the soil surface, mainly due to intensifying plant root respiration, by 18% compared to the plot W as well as increase in SOM content by 31%, with intensive accumulation of recalcitrant humus. By contrast, microbial biomass, labile SOM pool and basal respiration were higher in soil with weak flaring impact by 74%, 33% and 24%, respectively. Thus, three trends in plant-soil-microbe system exposed to warming and drying were revealed: i) SOM accumulation, ii) suppression of microbial activity, and iii) stimulation of root respiration. The research was supported by the Russian Science Foundation and Russian Foundation for Basic Researches.

Upper ocean climate of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea during the Holocene Insolation Maximum - a model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adloff, F.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Kučera, M.; Grimm, R.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Schmiedl, G.; Emeis, K.-C.

2011-10-01

Nine thousand years ago (9 ka BP), the Northern Hemisphere experienced enhanced seasonality caused by an orbital configuration close to the minimum of the precession index. To assess the impact of this "Holocene Insolation Maximum" (HIM) on the Mediterranean Sea, we use a regional ocean general circulation model forced by atmospheric input derived from global simulations. A stronger seasonal cycle is simulated by the model, which shows a relatively homogeneous winter cooling and a summer warming with well-defined spatial patterns, in particular, a subsurface warming in the Cretan and western Levantine areas. The comparison between the SST simulated for the HIM and a reconstruction from planktonic foraminifera transfer functions shows a poor agreement, especially for summer, when the vertical temperature gradient is strong. As a novel approach, we propose a reinterpretation of the reconstruction, to consider the conditions throughout the upper water column rather than at a single depth. We claim that such a depth-integrated approach is more adequate for surface temperature comparison purposes in a situation where the upper ocean structure in the past was different from the present-day. In this case, the depth-integrated interpretation of the proxy data strongly improves the agreement between modelled and reconstructed temperature signal with the subsurface summer warming being recorded by both model and proxies, with a small shift to the south in the model results. The mechanisms responsible for the peculiar subsurface pattern are found to be a combination of enhanced downwelling and wind mixing due to strengthened Etesian winds, and enhanced thermal forcing due to the stronger summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. Together, these processes induce a stronger heat transfer from the surface to the subsurface during late summer in the western Levantine; this leads to an enhanced heat piracy in this region, a process never identified before, but potentially characteristic of time slices with enhanced insolation.

Corrigendum to "Upper ocean climate of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea during the Holocene Insolation Maximum - a model study" published in Clim. Past, 7, 1103-1122, 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adloff, F.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Kučera, M.; Grimm, R.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Schmiedl, G.; Emeis, K.-C.

2011-11-01

Nine thousand years ago (9 ka BP), the Northern Hemisphere experienced enhanced seasonality caused by an orbital configuration close to the minimum of the precession index. To assess the impact of this "Holocene Insolation Maximum" (HIM) on the Mediterranean Sea, we use a regional ocean general circulation model forced by atmospheric input derived from global simulations. A stronger seasonal cycle is simulated by the model, which shows a relatively homogeneous winter cooling and a summer warming with well-defined spatial patterns, in particular, a subsurface warming in the Cretan and western Levantine areas. The comparison between the SST simulated for the HIM and a reconstruction from planktonic foraminifera transfer functions shows a poor agreement, especially for summer, when the vertical temperature gradient is strong. As a novel approach, we propose a reinterpretation of the reconstruction, to consider the conditions throughout the upper water column rather than at a single depth. We claim that such a depth-integrated approach is more adequate for surface temperature comparison purposes in a situation where the upper ocean structure in the past was different from the present-day. In this case, the depth-integrated interpretation of the proxy data strongly improves the agreement between modelled and reconstructed temperature signal with the subsurface summer warming being recorded by both model and proxies, with a small shift to the south in the model results. The mechanisms responsible for the peculiar subsurface pattern are found to be a combination of enhanced downwelling and wind mixing due to strengthened Etesian winds, and enhanced thermal forcing due to the stronger summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. Together, these processes induce a stronger heat transfer from the surface to the subsurface during late summer in the western Levantine; this leads to an enhanced heat piracy in this region, a process never identified before, but potentially characteristic of time slices with enhanced insolation.

Salinity driven oceanographic upwelling

DOEpatents

Johnson, D.H.

1984-08-30

The salinity driven oceanographic upwelling is maintained in a mariculture device that includes a long main duct in the general shape of a cylinder having perforated cover plates at each end. The mariculture device is suspended vertically in the ocean such that one end of the main duct is in surface water and the other end in relatively deep water that is cold, nutrient rich and relatively fresh in comparison to the surface water which is relatively warm, relatively nutrient deficient and relatively saline. A plurality of elongated flow segregating tubes are disposed in the main duct and extend from the upper cover plate beyond the lower cover plate into a lower manifold plate. The lower manifold plate is spaced from the lower cover plate to define a deep water fluid flow path to the interior space of the main duct. Spacer tubes extend from the upper cover plate and communicate with the interior space of the main duct. The spacer tubes are received in an upper manifold plate spaced from the upper cover plate to define a surface water fluid flow path into the flow segregating tubes. A surface water-deep water counterflow is thus established with deep water flowing upwardly through the main duct interior for discharge beyond the upper manifold plate while surface water flows downwardly through the flow segregating tubes for discharge below the lower manifold plate. During such counterflow heat is transferred from the downflowing warm water to the upflowing cold water. The flow is maintained by the difference in density between the deep water and the surface water due to their differences in salinity. The upwelling of nutrient rich deep water is used for marifarming by fertilizing the nutrient deficient surface water. 1 fig.

Salinity driven oceanographic upwelling

DOEpatents

Johnson, David H.

1986-01-01

The salinity driven oceanographic upwelling is maintained in a mariculture device that includes a long main duct in the general shape of a cylinder having perforated cover plates at each end. The mariculture device is suspended vertically in the ocean such that one end of the main duct is in surface water and the other end in relatively deep water that is cold, nutrient rich and relatively fresh in comparison to the surface water which is relatively warm, relatively nutrient deficient and relatively saline. A plurality of elongated flow segregating tubes are disposed in the main duct and extend from the upper cover plate beyond the lower cover plate into a lower manifold plate. The lower manifold plate is spaced from the lower cover plate to define a deep water fluid flow path to the interior space of the main duct. Spacer tubes extend from the upper cover plate and communicate with the interior space of the main duct. The spacer tubes are received in an upper manifold plate spaced from the upper cover plate to define a surface water fluid flow path into the flow segregating tubes. A surface water-deep water counterflow is thus established with deep water flowing upwardly through the main duct interior for discharge beyond the upper manifold plate while surface water flows downwardly through the flow segregating tubes for discharge below the lower manifold plate. During such counterflow heat is transferred from the downflowing warm water to the upflowing cold water. The flow is maintained by the difference in density between the deep water and the surface water due to their differences in salinity. The upwelling of nutrient rich deep water is used for marifarming by fertilizing the nutrient deficient surface water.

The geological and climatological case for a warmer and wetter early Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez, Ramses M.; Craddock, Robert A.

2018-04-01

The climate of early Mars remains a topic of intense debate. Ancient terrains preserve landscapes consistent with stream channels, lake basins and possibly even oceans, and thus the presence of liquid water flowing on the Martian surface 4 billion years ago. However, despite the geological evidence, determining how long climatic conditions supporting liquid water lasted remains uncertain. Climate models have struggled to generate sufficiently warm surface conditions given the faint young Sun—even assuming a denser early atmosphere. A warm climate could have potentially been sustained by supplementing atmospheric CO2 and H2O warming with either secondary greenhouse gases or clouds. Alternatively, the Martian climate could have been predominantly cold and icy, with transient warming episodes triggered by meteoritic impacts, volcanic eruptions, methane bursts or limit cycles. Here, we argue that a warm and semi-arid climate capable of producing rain is most consistent with the geological and climatological evidence.

Physical mechanisms of spring and summertime drought related with the global warming over the northern America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, W.; Kim, K. Y.

2017-12-01

Drought during the growing season (spring through summer) is severe natural hazard in the large cropland over the northern America. It is important to understand how the drought is related with the global warming and how it will change in the future. This study aims to investigate the physical mechanism of global warming impact on the spring and summertime drought over the northern America using Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function (CSEOF) analysis. The Northern Hemisphere surface warming, the most dominant mode of the surface air temperature, has resulted in decreased relative humidity and precipitation over the mid-latitude region of North America. For the viewpoint of atmospheric water demand, soil moisture and evaporation have also decreased significantly, exacerbating vulnerability of drought. These consistent features of changes in water demand and supply related with the global warming can provide a possibility of credible insight for future drought change.

Study of aerosol effect on accelerated snow melting over the Tibetan Plateau during boreal spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Woo-Seop; Bhawar, Rohini L.; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Sang, Jeong

2013-08-01

In the present study, a coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model (CSIRO-Mk3.6) is used to investigate the role of aerosol forcing agents as drivers of snow melting trends in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) region. Anthropogenic aerosol-induced snow cover changes in a warming climate are calculated from the difference between historical run (HIST) and all forcing except anthropogenic aerosol (NoAA). Absorbing aerosols can influence snow cover by warming the atmosphere, reducing snow reflectance after deposition. The warming the rate of snow melt, exposing darker surfaces below to short-wave radiation sooner, and allowing them to heat up even faster in the Himalayas and TP. The results show a strong spring snow cover decrease over TP when absorbing anthropogenic aerosol forcing is considered, whereas snow cover fraction (SCF) trends in NoAA are weakly negative (but insignificant) during 1951-2005. The enhanced spring snow cover trends in HIST are due to overall effects of different forcing agents: When aerosol forcing (AERO) is considered, a significant reduction of SCF than average can be found over the western TP and Himalayas. The large decreasing trends in SCF over the TP, with the maximum reduction of SCF around 12-15% over the western TP and Himalayas slope. Also accelerated snow melting during spring is due to effects of aerosol on snow albedo, where aerosol deposition cause decreases snow albedo. However, the SCF change in the “NoAA” simulations was observed to be less.

Heat and water rate transfer processes in the human respiratory tract at various altitudes.

PubMed

Kandjov, I M

2001-02-01

The process of the respiratory air conditioning as a process of heat and mass exchange at the interface inspired air-airways surface was studied. Using a model of airways (Olson et al., 1970) where the segments of the respiratory tract are like cylinders with a fixed length and diameter, the corresponding heat transfer equations, in the paper are founded basic rate exchange parameters-convective heat transfer coefficient h(c)(W m(-2) degrees C(-1)) and evaporative heat transfer coefficient h(e)(W m(-2)hPa(-1)). The rate transfer parameters assumed as sources with known heat power are connected to airflow rate in different airways segments. Relationships expressing warming rate of inspired air due to convection, warming rate of inspired air due to evaporation, water diffused in the inspired air from the airways wall, i.e. a system of air conditioning parameters, was composed. The altitude dynamics of the relations is studied. Every rate conditioning parameter is an increasing function of altitude. The process of diffusion in the peripheral bronchial generations as a basic transfer process is analysed. The following phenomenon is in effect: the diffusion coefficient increases with altitude and causes a compensation of simultaneous decreasing of O(2)and CO(2)densities in atmospheric air. Due to this compensation, the diffusion in the peripheral generations with altitude is approximately constant. The elements of the human anatomy optimality as well as the established dynamics are discussed and assumed. The square form of the airways after the trachea expressed in terms of transfer supposes (in view of maximum contact surface), that a maximum heat and water exchange is achieved, i.e. high degree of air condition at fixed environmental parameters and respiration regime. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.

'Home made' model to study the greenhouse effect and global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onorato, P.; Mascheretti, P.; DeAmbrosis, A.

2011-03-01

In this paper a simplified two-parameter model of the greenhouse effect on the Earth is developed, starting from the well known two-layer model. It allows both the analysis of the temperatures of the inner planets, by focusing on the role of the greenhouse effect, and a comparison between the temperatures the planets should have in the absence of greenhouse effect and their actual ones. It may also be used to predict the average temperature of the Earth surface in the future, depending on the variations of the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activities. This model can promote an elementary understanding of global warming since it allows a simple formalization of the energy balance for the Earth in the stationary condition, in the presence of greenhouse gases. For these reasons it can be introduced in courses for undergraduate physics students and for teacher preparation.

The Aquarius Ocean Salinity Mission High Stability L-band Radiometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pellerano, Fernando A.; Piepmeier, Jeffrey; Triesky, Michael; Horgan, Kevin; Forgione, Joshua; Caldwell, James; Wilson, William J.; Yueh, Simon; Spencer, Michael; McWatters, Dalia;

The influence of meridional ice transport on Europa's ocean stratification and heat content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Peiyun; Manucharyan, Georgy E.; Thompson, Andrew F.; Goodman, Jason C.; Vance, Steven D.

2017-06-01

Jupiter's moon Europa likely hosts a saltwater ocean beneath its icy surface. Geothermal heating and rotating convection in the ocean may drive a global overturning circulation that redistributes heat vertically and meridionally, preferentially warming the ice shell at the equator. Here we assess the previously unconstrained influence of ocean-ice coupling on Europa's ocean stratification and heat transport. We demonstrate that a relatively fresh layer can form at the ice-ocean interface due to a meridional ice transport forced by the differential ice shell heating between the equator and the poles. We provide analytical and numerical solutions for the layer's characteristics, highlighting their sensitivity to critical ocean parameters. For a weakly turbulent and highly saline ocean, a strong buoyancy gradient at the base of the freshwater layer can suppress vertical tracer exchange with the deeper ocean. As a result, the freshwater layer permits relatively warm deep ocean temperatures.

The impact of glacier geometry on meltwater plume structure and submarine melt in Greenland fjords

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carroll, D.; Sutherland, D. A.; Hudson, B.; Moon, T.; Catania, G. A.; Shroyer, E. L.; Nash, J. D.; Bartholomaus, T. C.; Felikson, D.; Stearns, L. A.; Noël, B. P. Y.; Broeke, M. R.

2016-09-01

Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet often drains subglacially into fjords, driving upwelling plumes at glacier termini. Ocean models and observations of submarine termini suggest that plumes enhance melt and undercutting, leading to calving and potential glacier destabilization. Here we systematically evaluate how simulated plume structure and submarine melt during summer months depends on realistic ranges of subglacial discharge, glacier depth, and ocean stratification from 12 Greenland fjords. Our results show that grounding line depth is a strong control on plume-induced submarine melt: deep glaciers produce warm, salty subsurface plumes that undercut termini, and shallow glaciers produce cold, fresh surface-trapped plumes that can overcut termini. Due to sustained upwelling velocities, plumes in cold, shallow fjords can induce equivalent depth-averaged melt rates compared to warm, deep fjords. These results detail a direct ocean-ice feedback that can affect the Greenland Ice Sheet.

The influence of meridional ice transport on Europa's ocean stratification and heat content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, P.; Manucharyan, G.; Thompson, A. F.; Goodman, J. C.; Vance, S.

2017-12-01

Jupiter's moon Europa likely hosts a saltwater ocean beneath its icy surface. Geothermal heating and rotating convection in the ocean may drive a global overturning circulation that redistributes heat vertically and meridionally, preferentially warming the ice shell at the equator. Here we assess thepreviously unconstrained influence of ocean-ice coupling on Europa's ocean stratification and heat transport. We demonstrate that a relatively fresh layer can form at the ice-ocean interface due to a meridional ice transport forced by the differential ice shell heating between the equator and the poles. We provide analytical and numerical solutions for the layer's characteristics, highlighting their sensitivity to critical ocean parameters. For a weakly turbulent and highly saline ocean, a strong buoyancy gradient at the base of the freshwater layer can suppress vertical tracer exchange with the deeper ocean. As a result, the freshwater layer permits relatively warm deep ocean temperatures.

Arctic and boreal ecosystems of western North America as components of the climate system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chapin, F. S.; McGuire, A.D.; Randerson, J.; Pielke, R.; Baldocchi, D.; Hobbie, S.E.; Roulet, Nigel; Eugster, W.; Kasischke, E.; Rastetter, E.B.; Zimov, S.A.; Running, S.W.

2000-01-01

Synthesis of results from several Arctic and boreal research programmes provides evidence for the strong role of high-latitude ecosystems in the climate system. Average surface air temperature has increased 0.3??C per decade during the twentieth century in the western North American Arctic and boreal forest zones. Precipitation has also increased, but changes in soil moisture are uncertain. Disturbance rates have increased in the boreal forest; for example, there has been a doubling of the area burned in North America in the past 20 years. The disturbance regime in tundra may not have changed. Tundra has a 3-6-fold higher winter albedo than boreal forest, but summer albedo and energy partitioning differ more strongly among ecosystems within either tundra or boreal forest than between these two biomes. This indicates a need to improve our understanding of vegetation dynamics within, as well as between, biomes. If regional surface warming were to continue, changes in albedo and energy absorption would likely act as a positive feedback to regional warming due to earlier melting of snow and, over the long term, the northward movement of treeline. Surface drying and a change in dominance from mosses to vascular plants would also enhance sensible heat flux and regional warming in tundra. In the boreal forest of western North America, deciduous forests have twice the albedo of conifer forests in both winter and summer, 50-80% higher evapotranspiration, and therefore only 30-50% of the sensible heat flux of conifers in summer. Therefore, a warming-induced increase in fire frequency that increased the proportion of deciduous forests in the landscape, would act as a negative feedback to regional warming. Changes in thermokarst and the aerial extent of wetlands, lakes, and ponds would alter high-latitude methane flux. There is currently a wide discrepancy among estimates of the size and direction of CO2 flux between high-latitude ecosystems and the atmosphere. These discrepancies relate more strongly to the approach and assumptions for extrapolation than to inconsistencies in the underlying data. Inverse modelling from atmospheric CO2 concentrations suggests that high latitudes are neutral or net sinks for atmospheric CO2, whereas field measurements suggest that high latitudes are neutral or a net CO2 source. Both approaches rely on assumptions that are difficult to verify. The most parsimonious explanation of the available data is that drying in tundra and disturbance in boreal forest enhance CO2 efflux. Nevertheless, many areas of both tundra and boreal forests remain net sinks due to regional variation in climate and local variation in topographically determined soil moisture. Improved understanding of the role of high-latitude ecosystems in the climate system requires a concerted research effort that focuses on geographical variation in the processes controlling land-atmosphere exchange, species composition, and ecosystem structure. Future studies must be conducted over a long enough time-period to detect and quantify ecosystem feedbacks.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Yan; Fan, Jiwen; Leung, L. Ruby

Significant reduction in precipitation in the past decades has been documented over many mountain ranges such as those in central and eastern China. Consistent with the increase of air pollution in these regions, it has been argued that the precipitation trend is linked to aerosol microphysical effect on suppressing warm rain. Rigorous quantitative investigations on the reasons responsible for the precipitation reduction are lacking. Here in this study, we employed an improved Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with online coupled chemistry (WRF-Chem) and conducted simulations at the convection-permitting scale to explore the major mechanisms governing changes in precipitation frommore » orographic clouds in the Mountain (Mt.) Hua area in Central China. We find that anthropogenic pollution contributes to a ~ 40% reduction of precipitation over Mt. Hua during the one-month summer time period. The reduction is mainly associated with precipitation events associated with valleymountain circulation and a mesoscale cold front event. In this Part I paper, we scrutinize the mechanism leading to significant reduction for the cases associated with valley-mountain circulation. We find that the valley breeze is weakened by aerosols due to absorbing aerosol induced warming aloft and cooling near the surface as a result of aerosol-radiation interaction (ARI). The weakened valley breeze along with reduced water vapor in the valley due to reduced evapotranspiration as a result of surface cooling significantly reduce the transport of water vapor from the valley to mountain and the relative humidity over the mountain, thus suppressing convection and precipitation in the mountain.« less

Warm Water Entrainment Impacts and Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of a Proposed Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Pilot Plant Offshore Oahu, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauer, Whitney Blanchard

Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) is a marine renewable energy technology that uses the temperature difference of large volumes of cold deep and warm surface seawater in tropical regions to generate electricity. One anticipated environmental impact of OTEC operations is the entrainment and subsequent mortality of ichthyoplankton (fish eggs and larvae) from the withdrawal of cold and warm seawater. The potential ichthyoplankton loss from the warm water intake was estimated for a proposed 10 MW OTEC pilot plant offshore Oahu, HI based on ambient vertical distribution data. The estimated losses due to entrainment from the warm water intake were 8.418E+02 larvae/1000 m3, 3.26E+06 larvae/day, and 1.19E+09 larvae/year. The potential entrained larvae/year is 1.86 X greater than at the Kahe Generating Station (Kapolei, HI), a 582 MW oil-fired power plant. Extrapolating to age-1 equivalence (9.2E+02 and 2.9E+02 yellowfin and skipjack tuna, respectively), the estimated yearly losses from warm water entrainment of yellowfin and skipjack tuna fish eggs and larvae represent 0.25-0.26 % and 0.09-0.11 % of Hawaii's commercial yellowfin and skipjack tuna industry in 2011 and 2012. An environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) was developed for the proposed OTEC plant operating for 20 and 40 years with availability factors of 0.85, 0.95, and 1.0 to determine the global warming potential (GWP) and cumulative energy demand (CED) impacts. For a 20 year operational OTEC plant, the GWP, CED, energy return on investment (EROI), and energy payback time (EPBT) ranged from 0.047 to 0.055 kg CO2eq/kWh, 0.678 to 0.798 MJ/kWh, 4.51 to 5.31 (unitless), and 3.77 to 4.43 years, respectively. For a 40 year operational OTEC plant, the GWP, CED, EROI, and EBPT ranged from 0.036 to 0.043 kg CO2eq/kWh, 0.527 to 0.620 MJ/kWh, 5.81 to 6.83 (unitless), and 5.85 to 6.89 years, respectively. The GWP impacts are within the range of renewable energy technologies and less than conventional electricity generation, with the exception of nuclear power. As part of the LCA, an ichthyoplankton entrainment impact assessment method was developed to estimate potential loss from the warm water intake for the proposed OTEC plant and for six coastal nuclear power facilities that use once-through cooling technology. Larval fish entrainment (#/kWh) was significantly greater (p<0.026) for the proposed OTEC facility, ranging from 10.0 to 11.7 larvae/kWh due to different capacity factors, than for the six nuclear power facilities that ranged from 0.08 to 0.78 larvae/kWh. While this research did not investigate OTEC technology development and economics, OTEC would be a favorable option for reducing the GWP and the reliance on fossil fuels for electricity generation in HI. The impact of ichthyoplankton mortality due to warm water entrainment for a 10 MW OTEC plant offshore Oahu, HI would likely be acceptable as there are examples of similar water withdrawals for electricity generation. Biological monitoring of a 10 MW facility would verify estimated environmental impacts of the warm water withdrawal and provide new information on the cold water withdrawal before advancing to a commercial (e.g., 100 MW) scale facility.

Understanding Recent Variability in the Arctic Sea Ice Cover -- Synthesis of Model Results and Observations

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

ARCTIC SEA ICE RESEARCH The effects of global warming on the Arctic Ocean finally gained the American public’s full attention in early 2007 with the...Arctic (Brass, 2002). The observed global warming trend is most pronounced in the higher latitudes due to an effect known as the snow/ice-albedo...due to increased melting thus exposing greater areas of lower albedo land and open water areas. The effect of global warming will result in a

Physical Mechanisms of Rapid Lake Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenters, J. D.

2016-12-01

Recent studies have shown significant warming of inland water bodies around the world. Many lakes are warming more rapidly than the ambient surface air temperature, and this is counter to what is often expected based on the lake surface energy balance. A host of reasons have been proposed to explain these discrepancies, including changes in the onset of summer stratification, significant loss of ice cover, and concomitant changes in winter air temperature and/or summer cloud cover. A review of the literature suggests that no single physical mechanism is primarily responsible for the majority of these changes, but rather that the large heterogeneity in regional climate trends and lake geomorphometry results in a host of potential physical drivers. In this study, we discuss the variety of mechanisms that have been proposed to explain rapid lake warming and offer an assessment of the physical plausibility for each potential contributor. Lake Superior is presented as a case study to illustrate the "perfect storm" of factors that can cause a deep, dimictic lake to warm at rate that exceeds the rate of global air temperature warming by nearly an order of magnitude. In particular, we use a simple mixed-layer model to show that spatially variable trends in Lake Superior surface water temperature are determined, to first order, by variations in bathymetry and winter air temperature. Summer atmospheric conditions are often of less significance, and winter ice cover may simply be a correlate. The results highlight the importance of considering the full range of factors that can lead to trends in lake surface temperature, and that conventional wisdom may often not be the best guide.

Observations of net soil exchange of CO2 in a dryland show experimental warming increases carbon losses in biocrust soils

USGS Publications Warehouse

Darrouzet-Nardi, Anthony N.; Reed, Sasha C.; Grote, Ed; Belnap, Jayne

2015-01-01

Many arid and semiarid ecosystems have soils covered with well-developed biological soil crust communities (biocrusts) made up of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and heterotrophs living at the soil surface. These communities are a fundamental component of dryland ecosystems, and are critical to dryland carbon (C) cycling. To examine the effects of warming temperatures on soil C balance in a dryland ecosystem, we used infrared heaters to warm biocrust-dominated soils to 2 °C above control conditions at a field site on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We monitored net soil exchange (NSE) of CO2 every hour for 21 months using automated flux chambers (5 control and 5 warmed chambers), which included the CO2 fluxes of the biocrusts and the soil beneath them. We observed measurable photosynthesis in biocrust soils on 12 % of measurement days, which correlated well with precipitation events and soil wet-up. These days included several snow events, providing what we believe to be the first evidence of substantial photosynthesis underneath snow by biocrust organisms in drylands. Overall, biocrust soils in both control and warmed plots were net CO2 sources to the atmosphere, with control plots losing 62 ± 8 g C m−2 (mean ± SE) over the first year of measurement and warmed plots losing 74 ± 9 g C m−2. Between control and warmed plots, the difference in soil C loss was uncertain over the course of the entire year due to large and variable rates in spring, but on days during which soils were wet and crusts were actively photosynthesizing, biocrusts that were warmed by 2 °C had a substantially more negative C balance (i.e., biocrust soils took up less C and/or lost more C in warmed plots). Taken together, our data suggest a substantial risk of increased C loss from biocrust soils with higher future temperatures, and highlight a robust capacity to predict CO2 exchange in biocrust soils using easily measured environmental parameters.

The world at 1.5°C: Understanding its regional dimensions and driving processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Wartenburger, R.; Vogel, M.; Hirsch, A.; Guillod, B.; Donat, M.; Pitman, A. J.; Davin, E.; Greve, P.; Hirschi, M.

2017-12-01

This presentation reviews the available evidence regarding projected regional changes in climate extremes at 1.5°C vs higher levels of warming based on recent analyses (Seneviratne et al. 2016; Wartenburger et al., submitted; Greve et al., submitted). In several regions, significant differences in the occurrence of climate extremes can be identified already for half a degree of warming when assessing changes at 1.5°C vs 2°C global warming. An important feature is the much stronger warming of hot extremes in several continental regions compared to the global mean warming, which implies that temperature extremes can warm regionally by much more than 1.5°C, even if global temperature warming is stabilized at this level (e.g. up to 6°C for certain models in the Arctic). This feature is due to a combination of feedbacks and internal climate variability. We highlight in particular the importance of land-climate feedbacks for projected changes in hot extremes in mid-latitude regions (Vogel et al. 2017). Because of the strong effects of land processes on regional changes in temperature extremes, changes in land surface properties, including land use changes, are found to be particularly important for projections in low-emissions scenarios (Hirsch et al. 2017; Guillod et al., submitted). References: Greve, P., et al.: Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change. Submitted. Guillod, B.P., et al.: Land use in low climate warming targets critical for hot extreme projections. Submitted. Hirsch, A.L., et al., 2017: Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming? J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, 2269-2288, doi:10.1002/2016JD026125. Seneviratne, S.I., et al., 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542. Vogel, M.M., et al., 2017: Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(3), 1511-1519. Wartenburger, R., et al.: Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework. Geosci. Model Dev. - Submitt.,

Lightning NOx and Impacts on Air Quality

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murray, Lee T.

2016-01-01

Lightning generates relatively large but uncertain quantities of nitrogen oxides, critical precursors for ozone and hydroxyl radical (OH), the primary tropospheric oxidants. Lightning nitrogen oxide strongly influences background ozone and OH due to high ozone production efficiencies in the free troposphere, effecting small but non-negligible contributions to surface pollutant concentrations. Lightning globally contributes 3-4 ppbv of simulated annual-mean policy-relevant background (PRB) surface ozone, comprised of local, regional, and hemispheric components, and up to 18 ppbv during individual events. Feedbacks via methane may counter some of these effects on decadal time scales. Lightning contributes approximately 1 percent to annual-mean surface particulate matter, as a direct precursor and by promoting faster oxidation of other precursors. Lightning also ignites wildfires and contributes to nitrogen deposition. Urban pollution influences lightning itself, with implications for regional lightning-nitrogen oxide production and feedbacks on downwind surface pollution. How lightning emissions will change in a warming world remains uncertain.

Effects of warming on the structure and function of a boreal black spruce forest

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stith T.Gower

2010-03-03

A strong argument can be made that there is a greater need to study the effect of warming on boreal forests more than on any other terrestrial biome. Boreal forests, the second largest forest biome, are predicted to experience the greatest warming of any forest biome in the world, but a process-based understanding of how warming will affect the structure and function of this economically and ecologically important forest biome is lacking. The effects of warming on species composition, canopy structure and biogeochemical cycles are likely to be complex; elucidating the underlying mechanisms will require long-term whole-ecosystem manipulation to capturemore » all the complex feedbacks (Shaver et al. 2000, Rustad et al. 2001, Stromgren 2001). The DOE Program for Ecosystem Research funded a three year project (2002-2005) to use replicated heated chambers on soil warming plots in northern Manitoba to examine the direct effects of whole-ecosystem warming. We are nearing completion of our first growing season of measurements (fall 2004). In spite of the unforeseen difficulty of installing the heating cable, our heating and irrigation systems worked extremely well, maintaining environmental conditions within 5-10% of the specified design 99% of the time. Preliminary data from these systems, all designed and built by our laboratory at the University of Wisconsin, support our overall hypothesis that warming will increase the carbon sink strength of upland boreal black spruce forests. I request an additional three years of funding to continue addressing the original objectives: (1) Examine the effect of warming on phenology of overstory, understory and bryophyte strata. Sap flux systems and dendrometer bands, monitored by data loggers, will be used to quantify changes in phenology and water use. (2) Quantify the effects of warming on nitrogen and water use by overstory, understory and bryophytes. (3) Compare effects of warming on autotrophic respiration and above- and belowground net primary production (NPP) budgets. Autotrophic respiration budgets will be constructed using chamber measurements for each tissue and NPP and standard allometry techniques (Gower et al. 1999). (4) Compare microbial and root dynamics, and net soil surface CO2 flux, of control and warmed soils to identify causes that may explain the hypothesized minimal effect of soil warming on soil surface CO2 flux. Fine root production and turnover will be quantified using minirhizotrons, and microbial dynamics will be determined using laboratory mineralization incubations. Soil surface CO2 flux will be measured using automated soil surface CO2 flux systems and portable CO2 analyzers. The proposed study builds on the existing research programs Gower has in northern Manitoba and would not be possible without in-kind services and financial support from Manitoba Hydro and University of Wisconsin.« less

Trends in historical mercury deposition inferred from lake sediment cores across a climate gradient in the Canadian High Arctic.

PubMed

Korosi, Jennifer B; Griffiths, Katherine; Smol, John P; Blais, Jules M

2018-06-02

Recent climate change may be enhancing mercury fluxes to Arctic lake sediments, confounding the use of sediment cores to reconstruct histories of atmospheric deposition. Assessing the independent effects of climate warming on mercury sequestration is challenging due to temporal overlap between warming temperatures and increased long-range transport of atmospheric mercury following the Industrial Revolution. We address this challenge by examining mercury trends in short cores (the last several hundred years) from eight lakes centered on Cape Herschel (Canadian High Arctic) that span a gradient in microclimates, including two lakes that have not yet been significantly altered by climate warming due to continued ice cover. Previous research on subfossil diatoms and inferred primary production indicated the timing of limnological responses to climate warming, which, due to prevailing ice cover conditions, varied from ∼1850 to ∼1990 for lakes that have undergone changes. We show that climate warming may have enhanced mercury deposition to lake sediments in one lake (Moraine Pond), while another (West Lake) showed a strong signal of post-industrial mercury enrichment without any corresponding limnological changes associated with warming. Our results provide insights into the role of climate warming and organic carbon cycling as drivers of mercury deposition to Arctic lake sediments. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Paleoceanographic Changes during the Past 95000 Years from the Indian Sector of the Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manoj, M. C.; Meloth, T.; Mohan, R.

2012-12-01

High-resolution planktic/benthic foraminiferal stable isotope and mean sortable silt records in a sediment core (SK200/22a) from the sub-Antarctic regime of the Indian sector of Southern Ocean depict the variations in surface and deep water hydrography during the past 95,000 years. The δ18O records of shallow- and deep-dwelling planktonic foraminiferal species (Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, Globigerina bulloides and Globorotalia inflata), primarily reflects the changes in upper water column characteristics. The δ18O records revealed the presence of the Antarctic Cold Reversal and the timing of the variability in major surface warming events appears in phase with the Antarctic temperature variations at the millennial time scale. Comparison between the proxies of sea surface conditions like planktonic δ18O and productivity proxies like carbonate and biogenic opal content in the core indicate that millennial scale sea surface warming fluctuated with productivity. The marine isotopic stage (MIS) 1 and MIS2 are characterized by near constant variations in mean sortable silt values, negating any significant changes in the deep water flow during these periods. The MIS 3 - MIS 5 periods were characterized by a general increase in mean sortable silt value, suggesting a strengthening of bottom-current activity that triggered winnowing at these periods. This is supported by the low δ13C records of epibenthic Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi during the glacials and some parts of MIS3 and MIS 5, confirming older nutrient-rich and poorly ventilated southern sourced deep waters at these periods. The termination I is marked by decrease in flow speed and an increase in the C. wuellerstorfi δ13C values. Comparison of mean sortable silt and C. wuellerstorfi δ13C record with the Antarctic ice core records reveal that pulses of reduced bottom water flow of Circumpolar Deep Water/North Atlantic Deep Water are synchronous with the Antarctic warming events. The decreased flow speed during the Antarctic warm events may be due to the lower production rate of southern-sourced water or reduced density, leading to reduced geostrophic flow. During the cold phases of the Antarctic climate, enhanced southern westerly wind transport caused increased sea-ice export leading to increase in density of southern-sourced water.

Emerging Vibrio risk at high latitudes in response to ocean warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker-Austin, Craig; Trinanes, Joaquin A.; Taylor, Nick G. H.; Hartnell, Rachel; Siitonen, Anja; Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime

2013-01-01

There is increasing concern regarding the role of climate change in driving bacterial waterborne infectious diseases. Here we illustrate associations between environmental changes observed in the Baltic area and the recent emergence of Vibrio infections and also forecast future scenarios of the risk of infections in correspondence with predicted warming trends. Using multidecadal long-term sea surface temperature data sets we found that the Baltic Sea is warming at an unprecedented rate. Sea surface temperature trends (1982-2010) indicate a warming pattern of 0.063-0.078°Cyr-1 (6.3-7.8°C per century; refs , ), with recent peak temperatures unequalled in the history of instrumented measurements for this region. These warming patterns have coincided with the unexpected emergence of Vibrio infections in northern Europe, many clustered around the Baltic Sea area. The number and distribution of cases correspond closely with the temporal and spatial peaks in sea surface temperatures. This is among the first empirical evidence that anthropogenic climate change is driving the emergence of Vibrio disease in temperate regions through its impact on resident bacterial communities, implying that this process is reshaping the distribution of infectious diseases across global scales.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Donner, S.D.; Knutson, T.R.; Oppenheimer, M.

Episodes of mass coral bleaching around the world in recent decades have been attributed to periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures. In 2005, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the tropical North Atlantic that may have contributed to the strong hurricane season caused widespread coral bleaching in the Eastern Caribbean. Here, the authors use two global climate models to evaluate the contribution of natural climate variability and anthropogenic forcing to the thermal stress that caused the 2005 coral bleaching event. Historical temperature data and simulations for the 1870-2000 period show that the observed warming in the region is unlikelymore » to be due to unforced climate variability alone. Simulation of background climate variability suggests that anthropogenic warming may have increased the probability of occurrence of significant thermal stress events for corals in this region by an order of magnitude. Under scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, mass coral bleaching in the Eastern Caribbean may become a biannual event in 20-30 years. However, if corals and their symbionts can adapt by 1-1.5{sup o}C, such mass bleaching events may not begin to recur at potentially harmful intervals until the latter half of the century. The delay could enable more time to alter the path of greenhouse gas emissions, although long-term 'committed warming' even after stabilization of atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels may still represent an additional long-term threat to corals.« less

Radionuclides in ornithogenic sediments as evidence for recent warming in the Ross Sea region, Antarctica.

PubMed

Nie, Yaguang; Xu, Liqiang; Liu, Xiaodong; Emslie, Steven D

2016-07-01

Radionuclides including (210)Pb, (226)Ra and (137)Cs were analyzed in eight ornithogenic sediment profiles from McMurdo Sound, Ross Sea region, East Antarctica. Equilibration between (210)Pb and (226)Ra were reached in all eight profiles, enabling the determination of chronology within the past two centuries through the Constant Rate of Supply (CRS) model. Calculated fluxes of both (210)Pb and (137)Cs varied drastically among four of the profiles (MB4, MB6, CC and CL2), probably due to differences in their sedimentary environments. In addition, we found the flux data exhibiting a clear decreasing gradient in accordance with their average deposition rate, which was in turn related to the specific location of the profiles. We believe this phenomenon may correspond to global warming of the last century, since warming-induced surface runoff would bring more inflow water and detritus to the coring sites, thus enhancing the difference among the profiles. To verify this hypothesis, the deposition rate against age of the sediments was calculated based on their determined chronology, which showed ascending trends in all four profiles. The significant increase in deposition rates over the last century is probably attributable to recent warming, implying a potential utilization of radionuclides as environmental indicators in this region. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Changes in Arctic Vegetation Amplify High-Latitude Warming Through Greenhouse Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swann, A.; Fung, I.; Levis, S.; Bonan, G. B.; Doney, S. C.

2009-12-01

Changes in vegetation cover are recognized to modify climate and the energy budget of the Earth through changes in albedo in high latitudes and evapotranspiration (ET) in the tropics. In snow-covered regions, the springtime growth of leaves enhances solar absorption because surface albedo is reduced from the albedo of snow (~0.8) towards the albedo of leaves (~0.1). Leaves also play a hydrologic role, transpiring soil water to the atmosphere. It has been suggested that broad-leaf deciduous trees may invade warming tundra more effectively than boreal evergreen trees and these trees have higher rates of transpiration than needle-leaf trees. Here we use a global climate model with an interactive biosphere to investigate the effects of adding deciduous trees on bare ground at high northern latitudes. We find that the top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance from enhanced transpiration (associated with the expanded forest cover) is 2.4 times larger than the direct forcing due to albedo change from the forest. Albedo change is considered to be the dominant mechanism by which trees directly modify climate at high-latitudes, but our findings suggest an additional mechanism through transpiration. Furthermore, the greenhouse warming by additional water vapor melts sea ice and triggers a positive feedback through changes in ocean albedo and evaporation. Vegetation feedbacks through albedo and transpiration produce a strong warming if they act in combination with sea-ice processes.

Plasticity in habitat use determines metabolic response of fish to global warming in stratified lakes.

PubMed

Busch, Susan; Kirillin, Georgiy; Mehner, Thomas

2012-09-01

We used a coupled lake physics and bioenergetics-based foraging model to evaluate how the plasticity in habitat use modifies the seasonal metabolic response of two sympatric cold-water fishes (vendace and Fontane cisco, Coregonus spp.) under a global warming scenario for the year 2100. In different simulations, the vertically migrating species performed either a plastic strategy (behavioral thermoregulation) by shifting their population depth at night to maintain the temperatures occupied at current in-situ observations, or a fixed strategy (no thermoregulation) by keeping their occupied depths at night but facing modified temperatures. The lake physics model predicted higher temperatures above 20 m and lower temperatures below 20 m in response to warming. Using temperature-zooplankton relationships, the density of zooplankton prey was predicted to increase at the surface, but to decrease in hypolimnetic waters. Simulating the fixed strategy, growth was enhanced only for the deeper-living cisco due to the shift in thermal regime at about 20 m. In contrast, simulating the plastic strategy, individual growth of cisco and young vendace was predicted to increase compared to growth currently observed in the lake. Only growth rates of older vendace are reduced under future global warming scenarios irrespective of the behavioral strategy. However, performing behavioral thermoregulation would drive both species into the same depth layers, and hence will erode vertical microhabitat segregation and intensify inter-specific competition between the coexisting coregonids.

A Test of Model Validation from Observed Temperature Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, S. F.

2006-12-01

How much of current warming is due to natural causes and how much is manmade? This requires a comparison of the patterns of observed warming with the best available models that incorporate both anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) as well as natural climate forcings (solar and volcanic). Fortunately, we have the just published U.S.-Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) report (www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport/default.htm), based on best current information. As seen in Fig. 1.3F of the report, modeled surface temperature trends change little with latitude, except for a stronger warming in the Arctic. The observations, however, show a strong surface warming in the northern hemisphere but not in the southern hemisphere (see Fig. 3.5C and 3.6D). The Antarctic is found to be cooling and Arctic temperatures, while currently rising, were higher in the 1930s than today. Although the Executive Summary of the CCSP report claims "clear evidence" for anthropogenic warming, based on comparing tropospheric and surface temperature trends, the report itself does not confirm this. Greenhouse models indicate that the tropics should provide the most sensitive location for their validation; trends there should increase by 200-300 percent with altitude, peaking at around 10 kilometers. The observations, however, show the opposite: flat or even decreasing tropospheric trend values (see Fig. 3.7 and also Fig. 5.7E). This disparity is demonstrated most strikingly in Fig. 5.4G, which shows the difference between surface and troposphere trends for a collection of models (displayed as a histogram) and for balloon and satellite data. [The disparities are less apparent in the Summary, which displays model results in terms of "range" rather than as histograms.] There may be several possible reasons for the disparity: Instrumental and other effects that exaggerate or otherwise distort observed temperature trends. Or, more likely: Shortcomings in models that result in much reduced values of climate sensitivity; for example, the neglect of important negative feedbacks. Allowing for uncertainties in the data and for imperfect models, there is only one valid conclusion from the failure of greenhouse models to explain the observations: The human contribution to global warming is still quite small, so that natural climate factors are dominant. This may also explain why the climate was cooling from 1940 to 1975 -- even as greenhouse-gas levels increased rapidly. An overall test for climate prediction may soon be possible by measuring the ongoing rise in sea level. According to my estimates, sea level should rise by 1.5 to 2.0 cm per decade (about the same rate as in past millennia); the U.N.-IPCC (4th Assessment Report) predicts 1.4 to 4.3 cm per decade. In the New York Review of Books (July 13, 2006), however, James Hansen suggests 20 feet or more per century -- equivalent to about 60 cm or more per decade.

An investigation of the effects from a urethral warming system on temperature distributions during cryoablation treatment of the prostate: a phantom study.

PubMed

Favazza, C P; Gorny, K R; King, D M; Rossman, P J; Felmlee, J P; Woodrum, D A; Mynderse, L A

2014-08-01

Introduction of urethral warmers to aid cryosurgery in the prostate has significantly reduced the incidence of urethral sloughing; however, the incidence rate still remains as high as 15%. Furthermore, urethral warmers have been associated with an increase of cancer recurrence rates. Here, we report results from our phantom-based investigation to determine the impact of a urethral warmer on temperature distributions around cryoneedles during cryosurgery. Cryoablation treatments were simulated in a tissue mimicking phantom containing a urethral warming catheter. Four different configurations of cryoneedles relative to urethral warming catheter were investigated. For each configuration, the freeze-thaw cycles were repeated with and without the urethral warming system activated. Temperature histories were recorded at various pre-arranged positions relative to the cryoneedles and urethral warming catheter. In all configurations, the urethral warming system was effective at maintaining sub-lethal temperatures at the simulated surface of the urethra. The warmer action, however, was additionally demonstrated to potentially negatively impact treatment lethality in the target zone by elevating minimal temperatures to sub-lethal levels. In all needle configurations, rates of freezing and thawing were not significantly affected by the use of the urethral warmer. The results indicate that the urethral warming system can protect urethral tissue during cryoablation therapy with cryoneedles placed as close as 5mm to the surface of the urethra. Using a urethral warming system and placing multiple cryoneedles within 1cm of each other delivers lethal cooling at least 5mm from the urethral surface while sparing urethral tissue. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Could cirrus clouds have warmed early Mars?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez, Ramses M.; Kasting, James F.

2017-01-01

The presence of the ancient valley networks on Mars indicates that the climate at 3.8 Ga was warm enough to allow substantial liquid water to flow on the martian surface for extended periods of time. However, the mechanism for producing this warming continues to be debated. One hypothesis is that Mars could have been kept warm by global cirrus cloud decks in a CO2sbnd H2O atmosphere containing at least 0.25 bar of CO2 (Urata and Toon, 2013). Initial warming from some other process, e.g., impacts, would be required to make this model work. Those results were generated using the CAM 3-D global climate model. Here, we use a single-column radioactive-convective climate model to further investigate the cirrus cloud warming hypothesis. Our calculations indicate that cirrus cloud decks could have produced global mean surface temperatures above freezing, but only if cirrus cloud cover approaches ∼75 - 100% and if other cloud properties (e.g., height, optical depth, particle size) are chosen favorably. However, at more realistic cirrus cloud fractions, or if cloud parameters are not optimal, cirrus clouds do not provide the necessary warming, suggesting that other greenhouse mechanisms are needed.

Global lake response to the recent warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winslow, Luke A.; Leach, Taylor H.; Rose, Kevin C.

2018-05-01

Understanding temporal variability in lake warming rates over decadal scales is important for understanding observed change in aquatic systems. We analyzed a global dataset of lake surface water temperature observations (1985‑2009) to examine how lake temperatures responded to a recent global air temperature warming hiatus (1998‑2012). Prior to the hiatus (1985‑1998), surface water temperatures significantly increased at an average rate of 0.532 °C decade‑1 (±0.214). In contrast, water temperatures did not change significantly during the hiatus (average rate ‑0.087 °C decade‑1 ±0.223). Overall, 83% of lakes in our dataset (129 of 155) had faster warming rates during the pre-hiatus period than during the hiatus period. These results demonstrate that lakes have exhibited decadal-scale variability in warming rates coherent with global air temperatures and represent an independent line of evidence for the recent warming hiatus. Our analyses provide evidence that lakes are sentinels of broader climatological processes and indicate that warming rates based on datasets where a large proportion of observations were collected during the hiatus period may underestimate longer-term trends.

Regional warming of hot extremes accelerated by surface energy fluxes consistent with drying soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donat, M.; Pitman, A.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2017-12-01

Strong regional differences exist in how hot temperature extremes increase under global warming. Using an ensemble of coupled climate models, we examine the regional warming rates of hot extremes relative to annual average warming rates in the same regions. We identify hotspots of accelerated warming of model-simulated hot extremes in Europe, North America, South America and Southeast China. These hotspots indicate where the warm tail of a distribution of temperatures increases faster than the average and are robust across most CMIP5 models. Exploring the conditions on the specific day the hot extreme occurs demonstrates the hotspots are explained by changes in the surface energy fluxes consistent with drying soils. Furthermore, in these hotspot regions we find a relationship between the temperature - heat flux correlation under current climate conditions and the magnitude of future projected changes in hot extremes, pointing to a potential emergent constraint for simulations of future hot extremes. However, the model-simulated accelerated warming of hot extremes appears inconsistent with observations of the past 60 years, except over Europe. The simulated acceleration of hot extremes may therefore be unreliable, a result that necessitates a re-evaluation of how climate models resolve the relevant terrestrial processes.

A High-Latitude Winter Continental Low Cloud Feedback Suppresses Arctic Air Formation in Warmer Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cronin, T.; Tziperman, E.; Li, H.

2015-12-01

High latitude continents have warmed much more rapidly in recent decades than the rest of the globe, especially in winter, and the maintenance of warm, frost-free conditions in continental interiors in winter has been a long-standing problem of past equable climates. It has also been found that the high-latitude lapse rate feedback plays an important role in Arctic amplification of climate change in climate model simulations, but we have little understanding of why lapse rates at high latitudes change so strongly with warming. To better understand these problems, we study Arctic air formation - the process by which a high-latitude maritime air mass is advected over a continent during polar night, cooled at the surface by radiation, and transformed into a much colder continental polar air mass - and its sensitivity to climate warming. We use a single-column version of the WRF model to conduct two-week simulations of the cooling process across a wide range of initial temperature profiles and microphysics schemes, and find that a low cloud feedback suppresses Arctic air formation in warmer climates. This cloud feedback consists of an increase in low cloud amount with warming, which shields the surface from radiative cooling, and increases the continental surface air temperature by roughly two degrees for each degree increase of the initial maritime surface air temperature. The time it takes for the surface air temperature to drop below freezing increases nonlinearly to ~10 days for initial maritime surface air temperatures of 20 oC. Given that this is about the time it takes an air mass starting over the Pacific to traverse the north American continent, this suggests that optically thick stratus cloud decks could help to maintain frost-free winter continental interiors in equable climates. We find that CMIP5 climate model runs show large increases in cloud water path and surface cloud longwave forcing in warmer climates, consistent with the proposed low-cloud feedback. The suppression of Arctic air formation with warming may act as a significant amplifier of climate change at high latitudes, and offers a mechanistic perspective on the high-latitude "lapse rate feedback" diagnosed in climate models.

Atmospheric transport, clouds and the Arctic longwave radiation paradox

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sedlar, Joseph

2016-04-01

Clouds interact with radiation, causing variations in the amount of electromagnetic energy reaching the Earth's surface, or escaping the climate system to space. While globally clouds lead to an overall cooling radiative effect at the surface, over the Arctic, where annual cloud fractions are high, the surface cloud radiative effect generally results in a warming. The additional energy input from absorption and re-emission of longwave radiation by the clouds to the surface can have a profound effect on the sea ice state. Anomalous atmospheric transport of heat and moisture into the Arctic, promoting cloud formation and enhancing surface longwave radiation anomalies, has been identified as an important mechanism in preconditioning Arctic sea ice for melt. Longwave radiation is emitted equally in all directions, and changes in the atmospheric infrared emission temperature and emissivity associated with advection of heat and moisture over the Arctic should correspondingly lead to an anomalous signal in longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). To examine the role of atmospheric heat and moisture transport into the Arctic on TOA longwave radiation, infrared satellite sounder observations from AIRS during 2003-2014 are analyzed for summer (JJAS). Thermodynamic metrics are developed to identify months characterized by a high frequency of warm and moist advection into the Arctic, and segregate the 2003-14 time period into climatological and anomalously warm, moist summer months. We find that anomalously warm, moist months result in a significant TOA longwave radiative cooling, which is opposite the forcing signal that the surface experiences during these months. At the timescale of the advective events, 3-10 days, the TOA cooling can be as large as the net surface energy budget during summer. When averaged on the monthly time scale, and over the full Arctic basin (poleward of 75°N), summer months experiencing frequent warm, moist advection events are observed with a TOA longwave flux to space that is 2 to 4 W m-2 larger than climatology. This represents a significant climate cooling signal, suggestive of a regional climate buffering mechanism to combat excessive Arctic warming.

Contrasting Effects of Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Nino on Stratospheric Water Vapor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Oman, Luke D.; Waugh, Darryn W.

2013-01-01

Targeted experiments with a comprehensive chemistry-climate model are used to demonstrate that seasonality and the location of the peak warming of sea surface temperatures dictate the response of stratospheric water vapor to El Nino. In spring, El Nino events in which sea surface temperature anomalies peak in the eastern Pacific lead to a warming at the tropopause above the warm pool region, and subsequently to more stratospheric water vapor (consistent with previous work). However, in fall and in early winter, and also during El Nino events in which the sea surface temperature anomaly is found mainly in the central Pacific, the response is qualitatively different: temperature changes in the warm pool region are nonuniform and less water vapor enters the stratosphere. The difference in water vapor in the lower stratosphere between the two variants of El Nino approaches 0.3 ppmv, while the difference between the winter and spring responses exceeds 0.5 ppmv.

Intensified plant N and C pool with more available nitrogen under experimental warming in an alpine meadow ecosystem.

PubMed

Peng, Fei; Xue, Xian; You, Quangang; Xu, Manhou; Chen, Xiang; Guo, Jian; Wang, Tao

2016-12-01

Nitrogen (N) availability is projected to increase in a warming climate. But whether the more available N is immobilized by microbes (thus stimulates soil carbon (C) decomposition), or is absorbed by plants (thus intensifies C uptake) remains unknown in the alpine meadow ecosystem. Infrared heaters were used to simulate climate warming with a paired experimental design. Soil ammonification, nitrification, and net mineralization were obtained by in situ incubation in a permafrost region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Available N significantly increased due to the stimulation of net nitrification and mineralization in 0-30 cm soil layer. Microbes immobilized N in the end of growing season in both warming and control plots. The magnitude of immobilized N was lower in the warming plots. The root N concentration significantly reduced, but root N pool intensified due to the significant increase in root biomass in the warming treatment. Our results suggest that a warming-induced increase in biomass is the major N sink and will continue to stimulate plant growth until plant N saturation, which could sustain the positive warming effect on ecosystem productivity.

Causes of the large warm bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone in the Norwegian Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koseki, Shunya; Keenlyside, Noel; Demissie, Teferi; Toniazzo, Thomas; Counillon, Francois; Bethke, Ingo; Ilicak, Mehmet; Shen, Mao-Lin

2018-06-01

We have investigated the causes of the sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) of the southeastern Atlantic Ocean simulated by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Similar to other coupled-models, NorESM has a warm SST bias in the ABFZ of up to 8 °C in the annual mean. Our analysis of NorESM reveals that a cyclonic surface wind bias over the ABFZ drives a locally excessively strong southward (0.05 m/s (relative to observation)) Angola Current displacing the ABFZ southward. A series of uncoupled stand-alone atmosphere and ocean model simulations are performed to investigate the cause of the coupled model bias. The stand-alone atmosphere model driven with observed SST exhibits a similar cyclonic surface circulation bias; while the stand-alone ocean model forced with the reanalysis data produces a warm SST in the ABFZ with a magnitude approximately half of that in the coupled NorESM simulation. An additional uncoupled sensitivity experiment shows that the atmospheric model's local negative surface wind curl generates anomalously strong Angola Current at the ocean surface. Consequently, this contributes to the warm SST bias in the ABFZ by 2 °C (compared to the reanalysis forced simulation). There is no evidence that local air-sea feedbacks among wind stress curl, SST, and sea level pressure (SLP) affect the ABFZ SST bias. Turbulent surface heat flux differences between coupled and uncoupled experiments explain the remaining 2 °C warm SST bias in NorESM. Ocean circulation, upwelling and turbulent heat flux errors all modulate the intensity and the seasonality of the ABFZ errors.

Mid-latitude afforestation shifts general circulation and tropical precipitation.

PubMed

Swann, Abigail L S; Fung, Inez Y; Chiang, John C H

2012-01-17

We show in climate model experiments that large-scale afforestation in northern mid-latitudes warms the Northern Hemisphere and alters global circulation patterns. An expansion of dark forests increases the absorption of solar energy and increases surface temperature, particularly in regions where the land surface is unable to compensate with latent heat flux due to water limitation. Atmospheric circulation redistributes the anomalous energy absorbed in the northern hemisphere, in particular toward the south, through altering the Hadley circulation, resulting in the northward displacement of the tropical rain bands. Precipitation decreases over parts of the Amazon basin affecting productivity and increases over the Sahel and Sahara regions in Africa. We find that the response of climate to afforestation in mid-latitudes is determined by the amount of soil moisture available to plants with the greatest warming found in water-limited regions. Mid-latitude afforestation is found to have a small impact on modeled global temperatures and on global CO(2), but regional heating from the increase in forest cover is capable of driving unintended changes in circulation and precipitation. The ability of vegetation to affect remote circulation has implications for strategies for climate mitigation.

Development and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Models for Prediction of Heat Transfer and Thermal Microenvironments of Corals

PubMed Central

Ong, Robert H.; King, Andrew J. C.; Mullins, Benjamin J.; Cooper, Timothy F.; Caley, M. Julian

2012-01-01

We present Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models of the coupled dynamics of water flow, heat transfer and irradiance in and around corals to predict temperatures experienced by corals. These models were validated against controlled laboratory experiments, under constant and transient irradiance, for hemispherical and branching corals. Our CFD models agree very well with experimental studies. A linear relationship between irradiance and coral surface warming was evident in both the simulation and experimental result agreeing with heat transfer theory. However, CFD models for the steady state simulation produced a better fit to the linear relationship than the experimental data, likely due to experimental error in the empirical measurements. The consistency of our modelling results with experimental observations demonstrates the applicability of CFD simulations, such as the models developed here, to coral bleaching studies. A study of the influence of coral skeletal porosity and skeletal bulk density on surface warming was also undertaken, demonstrating boundary layer behaviour, and interstitial flow magnitude and temperature profiles in coral cross sections. Our models compliment recent studies showing systematic changes in these parameters in some coral colonies and have utility in the prediction of coral bleaching. PMID:22701582