Investigation of enteric adenovirus and poliovirus removal by coagulation processes and suitability of bacteriophages MS2 and φX174 as surrogates for those viruses.

PubMed

Shirasaki, N; Matsushita, T; Matsui, Y; Marubayashi, T; Murai, K

2016-09-01

We evaluated the removal of enteric adenovirus (AdV) type 40 and poliovirus (PV) type 1 by coagulation, using water samples from 13 water sources for drinking water treatment plants in Japan. The behaviors of two widely accepted enteric virus surrogates, bacteriophages MS2 and φX174, were compared with the behaviors of AdV and PV. Coagulation with polyaluminum chloride (PACl, basicity 1.5) removed AdV and PV from virus-spiked source waters: the infectious AdV and PV removal ratios evaluated by means of a plaque-forming-unit method were 0.1-1.4-log10 and 0.5-2.4-log10, respectively. A nonsulfated high-basicity PACl (basicity 2.1) removed infectious AdV and PV more efficiently than did other commercially available PACls (basicity 1.5-2.1), alum, and ferric chloride. The MS2 removal ratios tended to be larger than those of AdV and PV, partly because of differences in the hydrophobicities of the virus particles and the sensitivity of the virus to the virucidal activity of PACl; the differences in removal ratios were not due to differences in the surface charges of the virus particles. MS2, which was more hydrophobic than the other viruses, was inactivated during coagulation with PACl. Therefore, MS2 does not appear to be an appropriate surrogate for AdV and PV during coagulation. In contrast, because φX174, like AdV and PV, was not inactivated during coagulation, and because the hydrophobicity of φX174 was similar to or somewhat lower than the hydrophobicities of AdV and PV, the φX174 removal ratios tended to be similar to or somewhat smaller than those of the enteric viruses. Therefore, φX174 is a potential conservative surrogate for AdV and PV during coagulation. In summary, the surface hydrophobicity of virus particles and the sensitivity of the virus to the virucidal activity of the coagulant are probably important determinants of the efficiency of virus removal during coagulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A validated LC-MS/MS method for the quantitative measurement of creatinine as an endogenous biomarker in human plasma.

PubMed

Zhao, Yue; Liu, Guowen; Angeles, Aida; Christopher, Lisa J; Wang, Zhaoqing; Arnold, Mark E; Shen, Jim X

2016-10-01

Creatinine is an endogenous compound generated from creatine by normal muscular metabolism. It is an important indicator of renal function and the serum level is routinely monitored in clinical labs. Results & methodology: Surrogate analyte (d3-creatinine) was used for calibration standard and quality control preparation and the relative instrument response ratio between creatinine and d3-creatinine was used to calculate the endogenous creatinine concentrations. A fit-for-purpose strategy of using a surrogate analyte and authentic matrix was adopted for this validation. The assay was the first human plasma assay using such strategy and was successfully applied to a clinical study to confirm a transient elevation of creatinine observed using an existing clinical assay.

78 FR 72862 - Wooden Bedroom Furniture From the People's Republic of China: Notice of Court Decision Not in...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-04

... Redetermination I regarding the surrogate value for the input poly foam,\\4\\ which the Court sustained in Home... inputs, poly foam, and the calculation of the surrogate financial ratios, constitutes a final decision of...

Shape-optimization of round-to-slot holes for improving film cooling effectiveness on a flat surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ying; Zhang, Jing-zhou; Wang, Chun-hua

2018-01-01

Single-objective optimization for improving adiabatic film cooling effectiveness is performed for single row of round-to-slot film cooling holes on a flat surface by using CFD analysis and surrogate approximation methods. Among the main geometric parameters, dimensionless hole-to-hole pitch (P/d) and slot length-to-diameter (l/d) are fixed as 2.4 and 2 respectively, and the other parameters (hole height-to-diameter ratio, slot width-to-diameter and inclination angle) are chosen as the design variables. Given a wide range of possible geometric variables, the geometric optimization of round-to-slot holes is carried out under two typical blowing ratios of M = 0.5 and M = 1.5 by selecting a spatially-averaged adiabatic film cooling effectiveness between x/d = 2 and x/d = 12 as the objective function to be maximized. Radial basis function neural network is applied for constructing the surrogate model and then the optimal design point is searched by a genetic algorithm. It is revealed that the optimal round-to-slot hole is of converging feature under a low blowing ratio but of diffusing feature under a high blowing ratio. Further, the influence principle of optimal round-to-slot geometry on film cooling performance is illustrated according to the detailed flow and thermal behaviors.

Shape-optimization of round-to-slot holes for improving film cooling effectiveness on a flat surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ying; Zhang, Jing-zhou; Wang, Chun-hua

2018-06-01

Single-objective optimization for improving adiabatic film cooling effectiveness is performed for single row of round-to-slot film cooling holes on a flat surface by using CFD analysis and surrogate approximation methods. Among the main geometric parameters, dimensionless hole-to-hole pitch ( P/ d) and slot length-to-diameter ( l/ d) are fixed as 2.4 and 2 respectively, and the other parameters (hole height-to-diameter ratio, slot width-to-diameter and inclination angle) are chosen as the design variables. Given a wide range of possible geometric variables, the geometric optimization of round-to-slot holes is carried out under two typical blowing ratios of M = 0.5 and M = 1.5 by selecting a spatially-averaged adiabatic film cooling effectiveness between x/ d = 2 and x/ d = 12 as the objective function to be maximized. Radial basis function neural network is applied for constructing the surrogate model and then the optimal design point is searched by a genetic algorithm. It is revealed that the optimal round-to-slot hole is of converging feature under a low blowing ratio but of diffusing feature under a high blowing ratio. Further, the influence principle of optimal round-to-slot geometry on film cooling performance is illustrated according to the detailed flow and thermal behaviors.

The effect of emotion and physician communication behaviors on surrogates' life-sustaining treatment decisions: a randomized simulation experiment.

PubMed

Barnato, Amber E; Arnold, Robert M

2013-07-01

Surrogate decision makers for critically ill patients experience strong negative emotional states. Emotions influence risk perception, risk preferences, and decision making. We sought to explore the effect of emotional state and physician communication behaviors on surrogates' life-sustaining treatment decisions. 5 × 2 between-subject randomized factorial experiment. Web-based simulated interactive video meeting with an intensivist to discuss code status. Community-based participants 35 and older who self-identified as the surrogate for a parent or spouse recruited from eight U.S. cities through public advertisements. Block random assignment to emotion arousal manipulation and each of the four physician communication behaviors. Surrogate's code status decision (cardiopulmonary resuscitation vs do not resuscitate/allow natural death). Two hundred fifty-six of 373 respondents (69%) logged-in and were randomized: average age was 50; 70% were surrogates for a parent; 63.5% were women; 76% were white, 11% black, and 9% Asian; and 81% were college educated. When asked about code status, 56% chose cardiopulmonary resuscitation. The emotion arousal manipulation increased the score on depression-dejection scale (β = 1.76 [0.58 - 2.94]) but did not influence cardiopulmonary resuscitation choice. Physician attending to emotion and framing the decision as the patient's rather than the surrogate's did not influence cardiopulmonary resuscitation choice. Framing no cardiopulmonary resuscitation as the norm rather than cardiopulmonary resuscitation resulted in fewer surrogates choosing cardiopulmonary resuscitation (48% vs 64%, odds ratio, 0.52 [95% CI, 0.32-0.87]), as did framing the alternative to cardiopulmonary resuscitation as "allow natural death" rather than do not resuscitate (49% vs 61%, odds ratio, 0.58 [95% CI, 0.35-0.96]). Experimentally induced emotional state did not influence code status decisions, although small changes in physician communication behaviors substantially influenced this decision.

Conservative strategy-based ensemble surrogate model for optimal groundwater remediation design at DNAPLs-contaminated sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouyang, Qi; Lu, Wenxi; Lin, Jin; Deng, Wenbing; Cheng, Weiguo

2017-08-01

The surrogate-based simulation-optimization techniques are frequently used for optimal groundwater remediation design. When this technique is used, surrogate errors caused by surrogate-modeling uncertainty may lead to generation of infeasible designs. In this paper, a conservative strategy that pushes the optimal design into the feasible region was used to address surrogate-modeling uncertainty. In addition, chance-constrained programming (CCP) was adopted to compare with the conservative strategy in addressing this uncertainty. Three methods, multi-gene genetic programming (MGGP), Kriging (KRG) and support vector regression (SVR), were used to construct surrogate models for a time-consuming multi-phase flow model. To improve the performance of the surrogate model, ensemble surrogates were constructed based on combinations of different stand-alone surrogate models. The results show that: (1) the surrogate-modeling uncertainty was successfully addressed by the conservative strategy, which means that this method is promising for addressing surrogate-modeling uncertainty. (2) The ensemble surrogate model that combines MGGP with KRG showed the most favorable performance, which indicates that this ensemble surrogate can utilize both stand-alone surrogate models to improve the performance of the surrogate model.

Numerical relativity waveform surrogate model for generically precessing binary black hole mergers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blackman, Jonathan; Field, Scott E.; Scheel, Mark A.; Galley, Chad R.; Ott, Christian D.; Boyle, Michael; Kidder, Lawrence E.; Pfeiffer, Harald P.; Szilágyi, Béla

2017-07-01

A generic, noneccentric binary black hole (BBH) system emits gravitational waves (GWs) that are completely described by seven intrinsic parameters: the black hole spin vectors and the ratio of their masses. Simulating a BBH coalescence by solving Einstein's equations numerically is computationally expensive, requiring days to months of computing resources for a single set of parameter values. Since theoretical predictions of the GWs are often needed for many different source parameters, a fast and accurate model is essential. We present the first surrogate model for GWs from the coalescence of BBHs including all seven dimensions of the intrinsic noneccentric parameter space. The surrogate model, which we call NRSur7dq2, is built from the results of 744 numerical relativity simulations. NRSur7dq2 covers spin magnitudes up to 0.8 and mass ratios up to 2, includes all ℓ≤4 modes, begins about 20 orbits before merger, and can be evaluated in ˜50 ms . We find the largest NRSur7dq2 errors to be comparable to the largest errors in the numerical relativity simulations, and more than an order of magnitude smaller than the errors of other waveform models. Our model, and more broadly the methods developed here, will enable studies that were not previously possible when using highly accurate waveforms, such as parameter inference and tests of general relativity with GW observations.

SU-E-J-163: A Biomechanical Lung Model for Respiratory Motion Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, X; Belcher, AH; Grelewicz, Z

2015-06-15

Purpose: This work presents a biomechanical model to investigate the complex respiratory motion for the lung tumor tracking in radiosurgery by computer simulation. Methods: The models include networked massspring-dampers to describe the tumor motion, different types of surrogate signals, and the force generated by the diaphragm. Each mass-springdamper has the same mechanical structure and each model can have different numbers of mass-spring-dampers. Both linear and nonlinear stiffness parameters were considered, and the damping ratio was tuned in a range so that the tumor motion was over-damped (no natural tumor oscillation occurs without force from the diaphragm). The simulation was runmore » by using ODE45 (ordinary differential equations by Runge-Kutta method) in MATLAB, and all time courses of motions and inputs (force) were generated and compared. Results: The curvature of the motion time courses around their peaks was sensitive to the damping ratio. Therefore, the damping ratio can be determined based on the clinical data of a high sampling rate. The peak values of different signals and the time the peaks occurred were compared, and it was found that the diaphragm force had a time lead over the tumor motion, and the lead time (0.1–0.4 seconds) depended on the distance between the tumor and the diaphragm. Conclusion: We reported a model based analysis approach for the spatial and temporal relation between the motion of the lung tumor and the surrogate signals. Due to the phase lead of the diaphragm in comparing with the lung tumor motion, the measurement of diaphragm motion (or its electromyography signal) can be used as a beam gating signal in radiosurgery, and it can also be an additional surrogate signal for better tumor motion tracking. The research is funded by the American Cancer Society (ACS) grant. The grant name is: Frameless SRS Based on Robotic Head Motion Cancellation. The grant number is: RSG-13-313-01-CCE.« less

Evaluation and comparison of predictive individual-level general surrogates.

PubMed

Gabriel, Erin E; Sachs, Michael C; Halloran, M Elizabeth

2018-07-01

An intermediate response measure that accurately predicts efficacy in a new setting at the individual level could be used both for prediction and personalized medical decisions. In this article, we define a predictive individual-level general surrogate (PIGS), which is an individual-level intermediate response that can be used to accurately predict individual efficacy in a new setting. While methods for evaluating trial-level general surrogates, which are predictors of trial-level efficacy, have been developed previously, few, if any, methods have been developed to evaluate individual-level general surrogates, and no methods have formalized the use of cross-validation to quantify the expected prediction error. Our proposed method uses existing methods of individual-level surrogate evaluation within a given clinical trial setting in combination with cross-validation over a set of clinical trials to evaluate surrogate quality and to estimate the absolute prediction error that is expected in a new trial setting when using a PIGS. Simulations show that our method performs well across a variety of scenarios. We use our method to evaluate and to compare candidate individual-level general surrogates over a set of multi-national trials of a pentavalent rotavirus vaccine.

Effectiveness of Biodiversity Surrogates for Conservation Planning: Different Measures of Effectiveness Generate a Kaleidoscope of Variation

PubMed Central

Grantham, Hedley S.; Pressey, Robert L.; Wells, Jessie A.; Beattie, Andrew J.

2010-01-01

Conservation planners represent many aspects of biodiversity by using surrogates with spatial distributions readily observed or quantified, but tests of their effectiveness have produced varied and conflicting results. We identified four factors likely to have a strong influence on the apparent effectiveness of surrogates: (1) the choice of surrogate; (2) differences among study regions, which might be large and unquantified (3) the test method, that is, how effectiveness is quantified, and (4) the test features that the surrogates are intended to represent. Analysis of an unusually rich dataset enabled us, for the first time, to disentangle these factors and to compare their individual and interacting influences. Using two data-rich regions, we estimated effectiveness using five alternative methods: two forms of incidental representation, two forms of species accumulation index and irreplaceability correlation, to assess the performance of ‘forest ecosystems’ and ‘environmental units’ as surrogates for six groups of threatened species—the test features—mammals, birds, reptiles, frogs, plants and all of these combined. Four methods tested the effectiveness of the surrogates by selecting areas for conservation of the surrogates then estimating how effective those areas were at representing test features. One method measured the spatial match between conservation priorities for surrogates and test features. For methods that selected conservation areas, we measured effectiveness using two analytical approaches: (1) when representation targets for the surrogates were achieved (incidental representation), or (2) progressively as areas were selected (species accumulation index). We estimated the spatial correlation of conservation priorities using an index known as summed irreplaceability. In general, the effectiveness of surrogates for our taxa (mostly threatened species) was low, although environmental units tended to be more effective than forest ecosystems. The surrogates were most effective for plants and mammals and least effective for frogs and reptiles. The five testing methods differed in their rankings of effectiveness of the two surrogates in relation to different groups of test features. There were differences between study areas in terms of the effectiveness of surrogates for different test feature groups. Overall, the effectiveness of the surrogates was sensitive to all four factors. This indicates the need for caution in generalizing surrogacy tests. PMID:20644726

Bilateral transit time assessment of upper and lower limbs as a surrogate ankle brachial index marker.

PubMed

Foo, Jong Yong Abdiel

2008-01-01

Ankle brachial index is useful in monitoring the pathogenesis of peripheral arterial occlusive diseases. Sphygmomanometer is the standard instrument widely used but frequent prolonged monitoring can be less comfortable for patients. Pulse transit time is known to be inversely correlated with blood pressure and a ratio-based pulse transit time measurement has been proposed as a surrogate ankle brachial index marker. In this study, 17 normotensive adults (9 men; aged 25.4 +/- 3.9 years) were recruited. Two postural change test activities were performed to induce changes in the stiffness of the arterial wall of the moved periphery. Results showed that only readings from the limbs that adopted a new posture registered significant blood pressure and pulse transit time changes (P < .05). Furthermore, there was significant correlation between the ankle brachial index and pulse transit time ratio measure for both test activities (R(2) > or = 0.704). The findings herein suggest that pulse transit time ratio is a surrogate and accommodating ankle brachial index marker.

A Surrogate Technique for Investigating Deterministic Dynamics in Discrete Human Movement.

PubMed

Taylor, Paul G; Small, Michael; Lee, Kwee-Yum; Landeo, Raul; O'Meara, Damien M; Millett, Emma L

2016-10-01

Entropy is an effective tool for investigation of human movement variability. However, before applying entropy, it can be beneficial to employ analyses to confirm that observed data are not solely the result of stochastic processes. This can be achieved by contrasting observed data with that produced using surrogate methods. Unlike continuous movement, no appropriate method has been applied to discrete human movement. This article proposes a novel surrogate method for discrete movement data, outlining the processes for determining its critical values. The proposed technique reliably generated surrogates for discrete joint angle time series, destroying fine-scale dynamics of the observed signal, while maintaining macro structural characteristics. Comparison of entropy estimates indicated observed signals had greater regularity than surrogates and were not only the result of stochastic but also deterministic processes. The proposed surrogate method is both a valid and reliable technique to investigate determinism in other discrete human movement time series.

76 FR 33194 - Pure Magnesium From the People's Republic of China: Preliminary Results of the 2009-2010...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-08

... financial statements and comments on surrogate country selection, respectively. TMI submitted comments... TMI for our consideration as potential SVs and surrogate financial ratios are sourced from India. Finally, on the record of this review, we have usable SV data (including financial data) from India, but...

Comparing biomarkers as principal surrogate endpoints.

PubMed

Huang, Ying; Gilbert, Peter B

2011-12-01

Recently a new definition of surrogate endpoint, the "principal surrogate," was proposed based on causal associations between treatment effects on the biomarker and on the clinical endpoint. Despite its appealing interpretation, limited research has been conducted to evaluate principal surrogates, and existing methods focus on risk models that consider a single biomarker. How to compare principal surrogate value of biomarkers or general risk models that consider multiple biomarkers remains an open research question. We propose to characterize a marker or risk model's principal surrogate value based on the distribution of risk difference between interventions. In addition, we propose a novel summary measure (the standardized total gain) that can be used to compare markers and to assess the incremental value of a new marker. We develop a semiparametric estimated-likelihood method to estimate the joint surrogate value of multiple biomarkers. This method accommodates two-phase sampling of biomarkers and is more widely applicable than existing nonparametric methods by incorporating continuous baseline covariates to predict the biomarker(s), and is more robust than existing parametric methods by leaving the error distribution of markers unspecified. The methodology is illustrated using a simulated example set and a real data set in the context of HIV vaccine trials. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

An evaluation of methods for estimating decadal stream loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Casey J.; Hirsch, Robert M.; Schwarz, Gregory E.; Holtschlag, David J.; Preston, Stephen D.; Crawford, Charles G.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

2016-11-01

Effective management of water resources requires accurate information on the mass, or load of water-quality constituents transported from upstream watersheds to downstream receiving waters. Despite this need, no single method has been shown to consistently provide accurate load estimates among different water-quality constituents, sampling sites, and sampling regimes. We evaluate the accuracy of several load estimation methods across a broad range of sampling and environmental conditions. This analysis uses random sub-samples drawn from temporally-dense data sets of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, nitrate, and suspended-sediment concentration, and includes measurements of specific conductance which was used as a surrogate for dissolved solids concentration. Methods considered include linear interpolation and ratio estimators, regression-based methods historically employed by the U.S. Geological Survey, and newer flexible techniques including Weighted Regressions on Time, Season, and Discharge (WRTDS) and a generalized non-linear additive model. No single method is identified to have the greatest accuracy across all constituents, sites, and sampling scenarios. Most methods provide accurate estimates of specific conductance (used as a surrogate for total dissolved solids or specific major ions) and total nitrogen - lower accuracy is observed for the estimation of nitrate, total phosphorus and suspended sediment loads. Methods that allow for flexibility in the relation between concentration and flow conditions, specifically Beale's ratio estimator and WRTDS, exhibit greater estimation accuracy and lower bias. Evaluation of methods across simulated sampling scenarios indicate that (1) high-flow sampling is necessary to produce accurate load estimates, (2) extrapolation of sample data through time or across more extreme flow conditions reduces load estimate accuracy, and (3) WRTDS and methods that use a Kalman filter or smoothing to correct for departures between individual modeled and observed values benefit most from more frequent water-quality sampling.

An evaluation of methods for estimating decadal stream loads

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Casey; Hirsch, Robert M.; Schwarz, Gregory E.; Holtschlag, David J.; Preston, Stephen D.; Crawford, Charles G.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

2016-01-01

Effective management of water resources requires accurate information on the mass, or load of water-quality constituents transported from upstream watersheds to downstream receiving waters. Despite this need, no single method has been shown to consistently provide accurate load estimates among different water-quality constituents, sampling sites, and sampling regimes. We evaluate the accuracy of several load estimation methods across a broad range of sampling and environmental conditions. This analysis uses random sub-samples drawn from temporally-dense data sets of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, nitrate, and suspended-sediment concentration, and includes measurements of specific conductance which was used as a surrogate for dissolved solids concentration. Methods considered include linear interpolation and ratio estimators, regression-based methods historically employed by the U.S. Geological Survey, and newer flexible techniques including Weighted Regressions on Time, Season, and Discharge (WRTDS) and a generalized non-linear additive model. No single method is identified to have the greatest accuracy across all constituents, sites, and sampling scenarios. Most methods provide accurate estimates of specific conductance (used as a surrogate for total dissolved solids or specific major ions) and total nitrogen – lower accuracy is observed for the estimation of nitrate, total phosphorus and suspended sediment loads. Methods that allow for flexibility in the relation between concentration and flow conditions, specifically Beale’s ratio estimator and WRTDS, exhibit greater estimation accuracy and lower bias. Evaluation of methods across simulated sampling scenarios indicate that (1) high-flow sampling is necessary to produce accurate load estimates, (2) extrapolation of sample data through time or across more extreme flow conditions reduces load estimate accuracy, and (3) WRTDS and methods that use a Kalman filter or smoothing to correct for departures between individual modeled and observed values benefit most from more frequent water-quality sampling.

Testing for nonlinearity in non-stationary physiological time series.

PubMed

Guarín, Diego; Delgado, Edilson; Orozco, Álvaro

2011-01-01

Testing for nonlinearity is one of the most important preprocessing steps in nonlinear time series analysis. Typically, this is done by means of the linear surrogate data methods. But it is a known fact that the validity of the results heavily depends on the stationarity of the time series. Since most physiological signals are non-stationary, it is easy to falsely detect nonlinearity using the linear surrogate data methods. In this document, we propose a methodology to extend the procedure for generating constrained surrogate time series in order to assess nonlinearity in non-stationary data. The method is based on the band-phase-randomized surrogates, which consists (contrary to the linear surrogate data methods) in randomizing only a portion of the Fourier phases in the high frequency domain. Analysis of simulated time series showed that in comparison to the linear surrogate data method, our method is able to discriminate between linear stationarity, linear non-stationary and nonlinear time series. Applying our methodology to heart rate variability (HRV) records of five healthy patients, we encountered that nonlinear correlations are present in this non-stationary physiological signals.

The 95Zr(n, γ)96Zr Cross Section from the Surrogate Ratio Method and Its Effect on s-process Nucleosynthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, S. Q.; Li, Z. H.; Wang, Y. B.; Nishio, K.; Lugaro, M.; Karakas, A. I.; Makii, H.; Mohr, P.; Su, J.; Li, Y. J.; Nishinaka, I.; Hirose, K.; Han, Y. L.; Orlandi, R.; Shen, Y. P.; Guo, B.; Zeng, S.; Lian, G.; Chen, Y. S.; Liu, W. P.

2017-10-01

The 95Zr(n, γ)96Zr reaction cross section is crucial in the modeling of s-process nucleosynthesis in asymptotic giant branch stars because it controls the operation of the branching point at the unstable 95Zr and the subsequent production of 96Zr. We have carried out the measurement of the 94Zr(18O, 16O) and 90Zr(18O, 16O) reactions and obtained the γ-decay probability ratio of 96Zr* and 92Zr* to determine the 95Zr(n, γ)96Zr reaction cross sections with the surrogate ratio method. Our deduced Maxwellian-averaged cross section of 66 ± 16 mb at 30 keV is close to the value recommended by Bao et al., but 30% and more than a factor of two larger than the values proposed by Toukan & Käppeler and Lugaro et al., respectively, and routinely used in s-process models. We tested the new rate in stellar models with masses between 2 and 6 M ⊙ and metallicities of 0.014 and 0.03. The largest changes—up to 80% variations in 96Zr—are seen in models of mass 3–4 M ⊙, where the 22Ne neutron source is mildly activated. The new rate can still provide a match to data from meteoritic stardust silicon carbide grains, provided that the maximum mass of the parent stars is below 4 M ⊙, for a metallicity of 0.03.

76 FR 76945 - Pure Magnesium From the People's Republic of China: Final Results of the 2009-2010 Antidumping...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-09

... used in making its preliminary determination of the surrogate value for truck freight as well as the... combination, 1.5% or more, by weight, of the following alloying elements: Aluminum, manganese, zinc, silicon... based our determination of the surrogate financial ratios on the financial statements of Hindalco...

Comparison of two methods using plasma triglyceride concentration as a surrogate estimate of insulin action in nondiabetic subjects: triglycerides × glucose versus triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol.

PubMed

Abbasi, Fahim; Reaven, Gerald M

2011-12-01

The objective was to compare relationships between insulin-mediated glucose uptake and surrogate estimates of insulin action, particularly those using fasting triglyceride (TG) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) concentrations. Insulin-mediated glucose uptake was quantified by determining the steady-state plasma glucose (SSPG) concentration during the insulin suppression test in 455 nondiabetic subjects. Fasting TG, HDL-C, glucose, and insulin concentrations were measured; and calculations were made of the following: (1) plasma concentration ratio of TG/HDL-C, (2) TG × fasting glucose (TyG index), (3) homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, and (4) insulin area under the curve (insulin-AUC) during a glucose tolerance test. Insulin-AUC correlated most closely with SSPG (r ∼ 0.75, P < .001), with lesser but comparable correlations between SSPG and TG/HDL-C ratio, TyG index, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, and fasting TG and insulin (r ∼ 0.60, P < .001). Calculations of TG/HDL-C ratio and TyG index correlated with SSPG concentration to a similar degree, and the relationships were comparable to estimates using fasting insulin. The strongest relationship was between SSPG and insulin-AUC. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improvements to surrogate data methods for nonstationary time series.

PubMed

Lucio, J H; Valdés, R; Rodríguez, L R

2012-05-01

The method of surrogate data has been extensively applied to hypothesis testing of system linearity, when only one realization of the system, a time series, is known. Normally, surrogate data should preserve the linear stochastic structure and the amplitude distribution of the original series. Classical surrogate data methods (such as random permutation, amplitude adjusted Fourier transform, or iterative amplitude adjusted Fourier transform) are successful at preserving one or both of these features in stationary cases. However, they always produce stationary surrogates, hence existing nonstationarity could be interpreted as dynamic nonlinearity. Certain modifications have been proposed that additionally preserve some nonstationarity, at the expense of reproducing a great deal of nonlinearity. However, even those methods generally fail to preserve the trend (i.e., global nonstationarity in the mean) of the original series. This is the case of time series with unit roots in their autoregressive structure. Additionally, those methods, based on Fourier transform, either need first and last values in the original series to match, or they need to select a piece of the original series with matching ends. These conditions are often inapplicable and the resulting surrogates are adversely affected by the well-known artefact problem. In this study, we propose a simple technique that, applied within existing Fourier-transform-based methods, generates surrogate data that jointly preserve the aforementioned characteristics of the original series, including (even strong) trends. Moreover, our technique avoids the negative effects of end mismatch. Several artificial and real, stationary and nonstationary, linear and nonlinear time series are examined, in order to demonstrate the advantages of the methods. Corresponding surrogate data are produced with the classical and with the proposed methods, and the results are compared.

Comparison of treatment effect sizes from pivotal and postapproval trials of novel therapeutics approved by the FDA based on surrogate markers of disease: a meta-epidemiological study.

PubMed

Wallach, Joshua D; Ciani, Oriana; Pease, Alison M; Gonsalves, Gregg S; Krumholz, Harlan M; Taylor, Rod S; Ross, Joseph S

2018-03-21

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) often approves new drugs based on trials that use surrogate markers for endpoints, which involve certain trade-offs and may risk making erroneous inferences about the medical product's actual clinical effect. This study aims to compare the treatment effects among pivotal trials supporting FDA approval of novel therapeutics based on surrogate markers of disease with those observed among postapproval trials for the same indication. We searched Drugs@FDA and PubMed to identify published randomized superiority design pivotal trials for all novel drugs initially approved by the FDA between 2005 and 2012 based on surrogate markers as primary endpoints and published postapproval trials using the same surrogate markers or patient-relevant outcomes as endpoints. Summary ratio of odds ratios (RORs) and difference between standardized mean differences (dSMDs) were used to quantify the average difference in treatment effects between pivotal and matched postapproval trials. Between 2005 and 2012, the FDA approved 88 novel drugs for 90 indications based on one or multiple pivotal trials using surrogate markers of disease. Of these, 27 novel drugs for 27 indications were approved based on pivotal trials using surrogate markers as primary endpoints that could be matched to at least one postapproval trial, for a total of 43 matches. For nine (75.0%) of the 12 matches using the same non-continuous surrogate markers as trial endpoints, pivotal trials had larger treatment effects than postapproval trials. On average, treatment effects were 50% higher (more beneficial) in the pivotal than the postapproval trials (ROR 1.5; 95% confidence interval CI 1.01-2.23). For 17 (54.8%) of the 31 matches using the same continuous surrogate markers as trial endpoints, pivotal trials had larger treatment effects than the postapproval trials. On average, there was no difference in treatment effects between pivotal and postapproval trials (dSMDs 0.01; 95% CI -0.15-0.16). Many postapproval drug trials are not directly comparable to previously published pivotal trials, particularly with respect to endpoint selection. Although treatment effects from pivotal trials supporting FDA approval of novel therapeutics based on non-continuous surrogate markers of disease are often larger than those observed among postapproval trials using surrogate markers as trial endpoints, there is no evidence of difference between pivotal and postapproval trials using continuous surrogate markers.

Use of eddy-covariance methods to "calibrate" simple estimators of evapotranspiration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sumner, David M.; Geurink, Jeffrey S.; Swancar, Amy

2017-01-01

Direct measurement of actual evapotranspiration (ET) provides quantification of this large component of the hydrologic budget, but typically requires long periods of record and large instrumentation and labor costs. Simple surrogate methods of estimating ET, if “calibrated” to direct measurements of ET, provide a reliable means to quantify ET. Eddy-covariance measurements of ET were made for 12 years (2004-2015) at an unimproved bahiagrass (Paspalum notatum) pasture in Florida. These measurements were compared to annual rainfall derived from rain gage data and monthly potential ET (PET) obtained from a long-term (since 1995) U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) statewide, 2-kilometer, daily PET product. The annual proportion of ET to rainfall indicates a strong correlation (r2=0.86) to annual rainfall; the ratio increases linearly with decreasing rainfall. Monthly ET rates correlated closely (r2=0.84) to the USGS PET product. The results indicate that simple surrogate methods of estimating actual ET show positive potential in the humid Florida climate given the ready availability of historical rainfall and PET.

Low RMRratio as a Surrogate Marker for Energy Deficiency, the Choice of Predictive Equation Vital for Correctly Identifying Male and Female Ballet Dancers at Risk.

PubMed

Staal, Sarah; Sjödin, Anders; Fahrenholtz, Ida; Bonnesen, Karen; Melin, Anna Katarina

2018-06-22

Ballet dancers are reported to have an increased risk for energy deficiency with or without disordered eating behavior. A low ratio between measured ( m ) and predicted ( p ) resting metabolic rate (RMR ratio  < 0.90) is a recognized surrogate marker for energy deficiency. We aimed to evaluate the prevalence of suppressed RMR using different methods to calculate p RMR and to explore associations with additional markers of energy deficiency. Female (n = 20) and male (n = 20) professional ballet dancers, 19-35 years of age, were enrolled. m RMR was assessed by respiratory calorimetry (ventilated open hood). p RMR was determined using the Cunningham and Harris-Benedict equations, and different tissue compartments derived from whole-body dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry assessment. The protocol further included assessment of body composition and bone mineral density, blood pressure, disordered eating (Eating Disorder Inventory-3), and for females, the Low Energy Availability in Females Questionnaire. The prevalence of suppressed RMR was generally high but also clearly dependent on the method used to calculate p RMR, ranging from 25% to 80% in males and 35% to 100% in females. Five percent had low bone mineral density, whereas 10% had disordered eating and 25% had hypotension. Forty percent of females had elevated Low Energy Availability in Females Questionnaire score and 50% were underweight. Suppressed RMR was associated with elevated Low Energy Availability in Females Questionnaire score in females and with higher training volume in males. In conclusion, professional ballet dancers are at risk for energy deficiency. The number of identified dancers at risk varies greatly depending on the method used to predict RMR when using RMR ratio as a marker for energy deficiency.

Sagittal Abdominal Diameter as a Surrogate Marker of Insulin Resistance in an Admixtured Population--Brazilian Metabolic Syndrome Study (BRAMS).

PubMed

Vasques, Ana Carolina J; Cassani, Roberta S L; Forti, Adriana C e; Vilela, Brunna S; Pareja, José Carlos; Tambascia, Marcos Antonio; Geloneze, Bruno

2015-01-01

Sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD) has been proposed as a surrogate marker of insulin resistance (IR). However, the utilization of SAD requires specific validation for each ethnicity. We aimed to investigate the potential use of SAD, compared with classical anthropometrical parameters, as a surrogate marker of IR and to establish the cutoff values of SAD for screening for IR. A multicenter population survey on metabolic disorders was conducted. A race-admixtured sample of 824 adult women was assessed. The anthropometric parameters included: BMI, waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio and SAD. IR was determined by a hyperglycemic clamp and the HOMA-IR index. After adjustments for age and total body fat mass, SAD (r = 0.23 and r = -0.70) and BMI (r = 0.20 and r = -0.71) were strongly correlated with the IR measured by the HOMA-IR index and the clamp, respectively (p < 0.001). In the ROC analysis, the optimal cutoff for SAD in women was 21.0 cm. The women with an increased SAD presented 3.2 (CI 95%: 2.1-5.0) more likelihood of having IR, assessed by the HOMA-IR index compared with those with normal SAD (p < 0.001); whereas women with elevated BMI and WC were 2.1 (95% CI: 1.4-3.3) and 2.8 (95% CI: 1.7-4.5) more likely to have IR (p < 0.001), respectively. No statistically significant results were found for waist-to-hip ratio. SAD can be a suitable surrogate marker of IR. Understanding and applying routine and simplified methods is essential because IR is associated with an increased risk of obesity-related diseases even in the presence of normal weight, slight overweight, as well as in obesity. Further prospective analysis will need to verify SAD as a determinant of clinical outcomes, such as type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular events, in the Brazilian population.

Triglyceride Glucose-Body Mass Index Is a Simple and Clinically Useful Surrogate Marker for Insulin Resistance in Nondiabetic Individuals

PubMed Central

Er, Leay-Kiaw; Wu, Semon; Chou, Hsin-Hua; Hsu, Lung-An; Teng, Ming-Sheng; Sun, Yu-Chen; Ko, Yu-Lin

2016-01-01

Background Insulin resistance (IR) and the consequences of compensatory hyperinsulinemia are pathogenic factors for a set of metabolic abnormalities, which contribute to the development of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular diseases. We compared traditional lipid levels and ratios and combined them with fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels or adiposity status for determining their efficiency as independent risk factors for IR. Methods We enrolled 511 Taiwanese individuals for the analysis. The clinical usefulness of various parameters—such as traditional lipid levels and ratios; visceral adiposity indicators, visceral adiposity index (VAI), and lipid accumulation product (LAP); the product of triglyceride (TG) and FPG (the TyG index); TyG with adiposity status (TyG-body mass index [BMI]) and TyG-waist circumference index [WC]); and adipokine levels and ratios—was analyzed to identify IR. Results For all lipid ratios, the TG/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio had the highest additional percentage of variation in the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR; 7.0% in total); for all variables of interest, TyG-BMI and leptin-adiponectin ratio (LAR) were strongly associated with HOMA-IR, with 16.6% and 23.2% of variability, respectively. A logistic regression analysis revealed similar patterns. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis indicated that TG/HDL-C was a more efficient IR discriminator than other lipid variables or ratios. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for VAI (0.734) and TyG (0.708) was larger than that for TG/HDL-C (0.707). TyG-BMI and LAR had the largest AUC (0.801 and 0.801, respectively). Conclusion TyG-BMI is a simple, powerful, and clinically useful surrogate marker for early identification of IR. PMID:26930652

SU-E-I-71: Quality Assessment of Surrogate Metrics in Multi-Atlas-Based Image Segmentation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, T; Ruan, D

Purpose: With the ever-growing data of heterogeneous quality, relevance assessment of atlases becomes increasingly critical for multi-atlas-based image segmentation. However, there is no universally recognized best relevance metric and even a standard to compare amongst candidates remains elusive. This study, for the first time, designs a quantification to assess relevance metrics’ quality, based on a novel perspective of the metric as surrogate for inferring the inaccessible oracle geometric agreement. Methods: We first develop an inference model to relate surrogate metrics in image space to the underlying oracle relevance metric in segmentation label space, with a monotonically non-decreasing function subject tomore » random perturbations. Subsequently, we investigate model parameters to reveal key contributing factors to surrogates’ ability in prognosticating the oracle relevance value, for the specific task of atlas selection. Finally, we design an effective contract-to-noise ratio (eCNR) to quantify surrogates’ quality based on insights from these analyses and empirical observations. Results: The inference model was specialized to a linear function with normally distributed perturbations, with surrogate metric exemplified by several widely-used image similarity metrics, i.e., MSD/NCC/(N)MI. Surrogates’ behaviors in selecting the most relevant atlases were assessed under varying eCNR, showing that surrogates with high eCNR dominated those with low eCNR in retaining the most relevant atlases. In an end-to-end validation, NCC/(N)MI with eCNR of 0.12 compared to MSD with eCNR of 0.10 resulted in statistically better segmentation with mean DSC of about 0.85 and the first and third quartiles of (0.83, 0.89), compared to MSD with mean DSC of 0.84 and the first and third quartiles of (0.81, 0.89). Conclusion: The designed eCNR is capable of characterizing surrogate metrics’ quality in prognosticating the oracle relevance value. It has been demonstrated to be correlated with the performance of relevant atlas selection and ultimate label fusion.« less

Nuclear Fuel Assay through analysis of Uranium L-shell by Hybrid L-edge/XRF Densitometer using a Surrogate Material

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Seunghoon; Joung, Sungyeop; Park, Jerry AB(; ), AC(; )

2018-01-01

Assay of L-series of nuclear material solution is useful for determination of amount of nuclear materials and ratio of minor actinide in the materials. The hybrid system of energy dispersive X-ray absorption edge spectrometry, i.e. L-edge densitometry, and X-ray fluorescence spectrometry is one of the analysis methods. The hybrid L-edge/XRF densitometer can be a promising candidate for a portable and compact equipment due to advantage of using low energy X-ray beams without heavy shielding systems and liquid nitrogen cooling compared to hybrid K-edge/XRF densitometer. A prototype of the equipment was evaluated for feasibility of the nuclear material assay using a surrogate material (lead) to avoid radiation effects from nuclear materials. The uncertainty of L-edge and XRF characteristics of the sample material and volume effects was discussed in the article.

Prediction of high-stage liver fibrosis using ADC value on diffusion-weighted imaging and quantitative enhancement ratio at the hepatobiliary phase of Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI at 1.5 T.

PubMed

Harada, Taiyo L; Saito, Kazuhiro; Araki, Yoichi; Matsubayashi, Jun; Nagao, Toshitaka; Sugimoto, Katsutoshi; Tokuuye, Koichi

2018-05-01

Background Recently, diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and quantitative enhancement ratio measured at the hepatobiliary phase (HBP) of Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been established as an effective method for evaluating liver fibrosis. Purpose To evaluate which is a more favorable surrogate marker in predicting high-stage liver fibrosis, apparently diffusion coefficient (ADC) value or quantitative enhancement ratio measured on HBP. Material and Methods Eighty-three patients with 99 surgically resected hepatic lesions were enrolled in this study. DWI was performed with b-values of 100 and 800 s/mm 2 . Regions of interest were set on ADC map, and the HBP of Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI, to calculate ADC value, liver-to-muscle ratio (LMR), liver-to-spleen ratio (LSR), and contrast enhancement index (CEI) of liver. We compared these parameters between low-stage fibrosis (F0, F1, and F2) and high-stage fibrosis (F3 and F4). Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to compare the diagnostic performance when distinguishing low-stage fibrosis from high-stage fibrosis. Results LMR and CEI were significantly lower at high-stage fibrosis than at the low stage ( P < 0.01 and P = 0.04, respectively), whereas LSR did not show a significant difference ( P = 0.053). No significant difference was observed in diagnostic performance between LMR and CEI ( P = 0.185). The best sensitivity and specificity, when an LMR of 2.80 or higher was considered to be low-stage fibrosis, were 82.4% and 75.6%, respectively. ADC value showed no significant differences among fibrosis grades ( P = 0.320). Conclusion LMR and CEI were both adequate surrogate parameters to distinguish high-stage fibrosis from low-stage fibrosis.

Fast and Accurate Prediction of Numerical Relativity Waveforms from Binary Black Hole Coalescences Using Surrogate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blackman, Jonathan; Field, Scott E.; Galley, Chad R.; Szilágyi, Béla; Scheel, Mark A.; Tiglio, Manuel; Hemberger, Daniel A.

2015-09-01

Simulating a binary black hole coalescence by solving Einstein's equations is computationally expensive, requiring days to months of supercomputing time. Using reduced order modeling techniques, we construct an accurate surrogate model, which is evaluated in a millisecond to a second, for numerical relativity (NR) waveforms from nonspinning binary black hole coalescences with mass ratios in [1, 10] and durations corresponding to about 15 orbits before merger. We assess the model's uncertainty and show that our modeling strategy predicts NR waveforms not used for the surrogate's training with errors nearly as small as the numerical error of the NR code. Our model includes all spherical-harmonic -2Yℓm waveform modes resolved by the NR code up to ℓ=8 . We compare our surrogate model to effective one body waveforms from 50 M⊙ to 300 M⊙ for advanced LIGO detectors and find that the surrogate is always more faithful (by at least an order of magnitude in most cases).

Fast and Accurate Prediction of Numerical Relativity Waveforms from Binary Black Hole Coalescences Using Surrogate Models.

PubMed

Blackman, Jonathan; Field, Scott E; Galley, Chad R; Szilágyi, Béla; Scheel, Mark A; Tiglio, Manuel; Hemberger, Daniel A

2015-09-18

Simulating a binary black hole coalescence by solving Einstein's equations is computationally expensive, requiring days to months of supercomputing time. Using reduced order modeling techniques, we construct an accurate surrogate model, which is evaluated in a millisecond to a second, for numerical relativity (NR) waveforms from nonspinning binary black hole coalescences with mass ratios in [1, 10] and durations corresponding to about 15 orbits before merger. We assess the model's uncertainty and show that our modeling strategy predicts NR waveforms not used for the surrogate's training with errors nearly as small as the numerical error of the NR code. Our model includes all spherical-harmonic _{-2}Y_{ℓm} waveform modes resolved by the NR code up to ℓ=8. We compare our surrogate model to effective one body waveforms from 50M_{⊙} to 300M_{⊙} for advanced LIGO detectors and find that the surrogate is always more faithful (by at least an order of magnitude in most cases).

A review of surrogate models and their application to groundwater modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asher, M. J.; Croke, B. F. W.; Jakeman, A. J.; Peeters, L. J. M.

2015-08-01

The spatially and temporally variable parameters and inputs to complex groundwater models typically result in long runtimes which hinder comprehensive calibration, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis. Surrogate modeling aims to provide a simpler, and hence faster, model which emulates the specified output of a more complex model in function of its inputs and parameters. In this review paper, we summarize surrogate modeling techniques in three categories: data-driven, projection, and hierarchical-based approaches. Data-driven surrogates approximate a groundwater model through an empirical model that captures the input-output mapping of the original model. Projection-based models reduce the dimensionality of the parameter space by projecting the governing equations onto a basis of orthonormal vectors. In hierarchical or multifidelity methods the surrogate is created by simplifying the representation of the physical system, such as by ignoring certain processes, or reducing the numerical resolution. In discussing the application to groundwater modeling of these methods, we note several imbalances in the existing literature: a large body of work on data-driven approaches seemingly ignores major drawbacks to the methods; only a fraction of the literature focuses on creating surrogates to reproduce outputs of fully distributed groundwater models, despite these being ubiquitous in practice; and a number of the more advanced surrogate modeling methods are yet to be fully applied in a groundwater modeling context.

Emotional experiences in surrogate mothers: A qualitative study

PubMed Central

Ahmari Tehran, Hoda; Tashi, Shohreh; Mehran, Nahid; Eskandari, Narges; Dadkhah Tehrani, Tahmineh

2014-01-01

Background: Surrogacy is one of the new techniques of assisted reproduction technology in which a woman carries and bears a child for another woman. In Iran, many Shia clerics and jurists considered it permissible so there is no religious prohibition for it. In addition to the risk of physical complications for complete surrogate mothers, the possibility of psychological complications resulted from emotional attachment to a living creature in the surrogate mother as another injury requires counseling and assessment prior to acceptance by infertile couples and complete surrogate mothers. Objective: The purpose of this study was to assess the emotional experiences of surrogate mothers. Materials and Methods: This was a qualitative, phenomenological study. We selected eight complete surrogate mothers in Isfahan. We used convenient sampling method and in-depth interview to collect the information. The data analysis was fulfilled via Colaizzi’s seven-stage method. Reliability and validity study of the roots in the four-axis was done. Results: The findings of these interviews were classified into two main themes and four sub themes: acquired experiences in pregnancy (feelings toward pregnancy, relationship with family, relatives and commissioning couple) and consequences of surrogacy (complications of pregnancy, religious and financial problems of surrogacy). Conclusion: Surrogacy pregnancy should be considered as high-risk emotional experience because many of surrogate mothers may face negative experiences. Therefore, it is recommended that surrogates should receive professional counseling prior to, during and following pregnancy. PMID:25114669

A surrogate analyte method to determine D-serine in mouse brain using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry.

PubMed

Kinoshita, Kohnosuke; Jingu, Shigeji; Yamaguchi, Jun-ichi

2013-01-15

A bioanalytical method for determining endogenous d-serine levels in the mouse brain using a surrogate analyte and liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) was developed. [2,3,3-(2)H]D-serine and [(15)N]D-serine were used as a surrogate analyte and an internal standard, respectively. The surrogate analyte was spiked into brain homogenate to yield calibration standards and quality control (QC) samples. Both endogenous and surrogate analytes were extracted using protein precipitation followed by solid phase extraction. Enantiomeric separation was achieved on a chiral crown ether column with an analysis time of only 6 min without any derivatization. The column eluent was introduced into an electrospray interface of a triple-quadrupole mass spectrometer. The calibration range was 1.00 to 300 nmol/g, and the method showed acceptable accuracy and precision at all QC concentration levels from a validation point of view. In addition, the brain d-serine levels of normal mice determined using this method were the same as those obtained by a standard addition method, which is time-consuming but is often used for the accurate measurement of endogenous substances. Thus, this surrogate analyte method should be applicable to the measurement of d-serine levels as a potential biomarker for monitoring certain effects of drug candidates on the central nervous system. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ratio of mean platelet volume to platelet count is a potential surrogate marker predicting liver cirrhosis.

PubMed

Iida, Hiroya; Kaibori, Masaki; Matsui, Kosuke; Ishizaki, Morihiko; Kon, Masanori

2018-01-27

To provide a simple surrogate marker predictive of liver cirrhosis (LC). Specimens from 302 patients who underwent resection for hepatocellular carcinoma between January 2006 and December 2012 were retrospectively analyzed. Based on pathologic findings, patients were divided into groups based on whether or not they had LC. Parameters associated with hepatic functional reserve were compared in these two groups using Mann-Whitney U -test for univariate analysis. Factors differing significantly in univariate analyses were entered into multivariate logistic regression analysis. There were significant differences between the LC group ( n = 100) and non-LC group ( n = 202) in prothrombin activity, concentrations of alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, total bilirubin, albumin, cholinesterase, type IV collagen, hyaluronic acid, indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min, maximal removal rate of technitium-99m diethylene triamine penta-acetic acid-galactosyl human serum albumin and ratio of mean platelet volume to platelet count (MPV/PLT). Multivariate analysis showed that prothrombin activity, concentrations of alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, total bilirubin and hyaluronic acid, and MPV/PLT ratio were factors independently predictive of LC. The area under the curve value for MPV/PLT was 0.78, with a 0.8 cutoff value having a sensitivity of 65% and a specificity of 78%. The MPV/PLT ratio, which can be determined simply from the complete blood count, may be a simple surrogate marker predicting LC.

Developing a particle tracking surrogate model to improve inversion of ground water - Surface water models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cousquer, Yohann; Pryet, Alexandre; Atteia, Olivier; Ferré, Ty P. A.; Delbart, Célestine; Valois, Rémi; Dupuy, Alain

2018-03-01

The inverse problem of groundwater models is often ill-posed and model parameters are likely to be poorly constrained. Identifiability is improved if diverse data types are used for parameter estimation. However, some models, including detailed solute transport models, are further limited by prohibitive computation times. This often precludes the use of concentration data for parameter estimation, even if those data are available. In the case of surface water-groundwater (SW-GW) models, concentration data can provide SW-GW mixing ratios, which efficiently constrain the estimate of exchange flow, but are rarely used. We propose to reduce computational limits by simulating SW-GW exchange at a sink (well or drain) based on particle tracking under steady state flow conditions. Particle tracking is used to simulate advective transport. A comparison between the particle tracking surrogate model and an advective-dispersive model shows that dispersion can often be neglected when the mixing ratio is computed for a sink, allowing for use of the particle tracking surrogate model. The surrogate model was implemented to solve the inverse problem for a real SW-GW transport problem with heads and concentrations combined in a weighted hybrid objective function. The resulting inversion showed markedly reduced uncertainty in the transmissivity field compared to calibration on head data alone.

Systematic review: the effect on surrogates of making treatment decisions for others.

PubMed

Wendler, David; Rid, Annette

2011-03-01

Clinical practice relies on surrogates to make or help to make treatment decisions for incapacitated adults; however, the effect of this practice on surrogates has not been evaluated. To assess the effect on surrogates of making treatment decisions for adults who cannot make their own decisions. Empirical studies published in English and listed in MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, BIOETHICSLINE, PsycINFO, or Scopus before 1 July 2010. Eligible studies provided quantitative or qualitative empirical data, by evaluating surrogates, regarding the effect on surrogates of making treatment decisions for an incapacitated adult. Information on study location, number and type of surrogates, timing of data collection, type of decisions, patient setting, methods, main findings, and limitations. 40 studies, 29 using qualitative and 11 using quantitative methods, provided data on 2854 surrogates, more than one half of whom were family members of the patient. Most surrogates were surveyed several months to years after making treatment decisions, the majority of which were end-of-life decisions. The quantitative studies found that at least one third of surrogates experienced a negative emotional burden as the result of making treatment decisions. The qualitative studies reported that many or most surrogates experienced negative emotional burden. The negative effects on surrogates were often substantial and typically lasted months or, in some cases, years. The most common negative effects cited by surrogates were stress, guilt over the decisions they made, and doubt regarding whether they had made the right decisions. Nine of the 40 studies also reported beneficial effects on a few surrogates, the most common of which were supporting the patient and feeling a sense of satisfaction. Knowing which treatment is consistent with the patient's preferences was frequently cited as reducing the negative effect on surrogates. Thirty-two of the 40 articles reported data collected in the United States. Because the study populations were relatively homogenous, it is unclear whether the findings apply to other groups. In some cases, the effect of making treatment decisions could not be isolated from that of other stressors, such as grief or prognostic uncertainty. Nine of the studies had a response rate less than 50%, and 9 did not report a response rate. Many of the studies had a substantial interval between the treatment decisions and data collection. Making treatment decisions has a negative emotional effect on at least one third of surrogates, which is often substantial and typically lasts months (or sometimes years). Future research should evaluate ways to reduce this burden, including methods to identify which treatment options are consistent with the patient's preferences. National Institutes of Health.

Narrative Interest Standard: A Novel Approach to Surrogate Decision-Making for People With Dementia.

PubMed

Wilkins, James M

2017-06-17

Dementia is a common neurodegenerative process that can significantly impair decision-making capacity as the disease progresses. When a person is found to lack capacity to make a decision, a surrogate decision-maker is generally sought to aid in decision-making. Typical bases for surrogate decision-making include the substituted judgment standard and the best interest standard. Given the heterogeneous and progressive course of dementia, however, these standards for surrogate decision-making are often insufficient in providing guidance for the decision-making for a person with dementia, escalating the likelihood of conflict in these decisions. In this article, the narrative interest standard is presented as a novel and more appropriate approach to surrogate decision-making for people with dementia. Through case presentation and ethical analysis, the standard mechanisms for surrogate decision-making for people with dementia are reviewed and critiqued. The narrative interest standard is then introduced and discussed as a dementia-specific model for surrogate decision-making. Through incorporation of elements of a best interest standard in focusing on the current benefit-burden ratio and elements of narrative to provide context, history, and flexibility for values and preferences that may change over time, the narrative interest standard allows for elaboration of an enriched context for surrogate decision-making for people with dementia. More importantly, however, a narrative approach encourages the direct contribution from people with dementia in authoring the story of what matters to them in their lives.

Use of the triglyceride to HDL cholesterol ratio for assessing insulin sensitivity in overweight and obese children in rural Appalachia

PubMed Central

Bridges, Kristie Grove; Jarrett, Traci; Thorpe, Anthony; Baus, Adam; Cochran, Jill

2015-01-01

Background Studies have suggested that triglyceride to HDL-cholesterol ratio (TRG/HDL) is a surrogate marker of insulin resistance (IR), but information regarding its use in pediatric patients is limited. Objective This study investigated the ability of TRG/HDL ratio to assess IR in obese and overweight children. Subjects The sample consisted of de-identified electronic medical records of patients aged 10–17 years (n = 223). Materials and methods Logistic regression was performed using TRG/HDL ratio as a predictor of hyperinsulinemia or IR defined using homeostasis model assessment score. Results TRG/HDL ratio had limited ability to predict hyperinsulinemia (AUROC 0.71) or IR (AUROC 0.72). Although females had higher insulin levels, male patients were significantly more likely to have hypertriglyceridemia and impaired fasting glucose. Conclusions TRG/HDL ratio was not adequate for predicting IR in this population. Gender differences in the development of obesity-related metabolic abnormalities may impact the choice of screening studies in pediatric patients. PMID:26352085

Maintaining tumor targeting accuracy in real-time motion compensation systems for respiration-induced tumor motion.

PubMed

Malinowski, Kathleen; McAvoy, Thomas J; George, Rohini; Dieterich, Sonja; D'Souza, Warren D

2013-07-01

To determine how best to time respiratory surrogate-based tumor motion model updates by comparing a novel technique based on external measurements alone to three direct measurement methods. Concurrently measured tumor and respiratory surrogate positions from 166 treatment fractions for lung or pancreas lesions were analyzed. Partial-least-squares regression models of tumor position from marker motion were created from the first six measurements in each dataset. Successive tumor localizations were obtained at a rate of once per minute on average. Model updates were timed according to four methods: never, respiratory surrogate-based (when metrics based on respiratory surrogate measurements exceeded confidence limits), error-based (when localization error ≥ 3 mm), and always (approximately once per minute). Radial tumor displacement prediction errors (mean ± standard deviation) for the four schema described above were 2.4 ± 1.2, 1.9 ± 0.9, 1.9 ± 0.8, and 1.7 ± 0.8 mm, respectively. The never-update error was significantly larger than errors of the other methods. Mean update counts over 20 min were 0, 4, 9, and 24, respectively. The same improvement in tumor localization accuracy could be achieved through any of the three update methods, but significantly fewer updates were required when the respiratory surrogate method was utilized. This study establishes the feasibility of timing image acquisitions for updating respiratory surrogate models without direct tumor localization.

Exploring the relationship between the causal-inference and meta-analytic paradigms for the evaluation of surrogate endpoints.

PubMed

Van der Elst, Wim; Molenberghs, Geert; Alonso, Ariel

2016-04-15

Nowadays, two main frameworks for the evaluation of surrogate endpoints, based on causal-inference and meta-analysis, dominate the scene. Earlier work showed that the metrics of surrogacy introduced in both paradigms are related, although in a complex way that is difficult to study analytically. In the present work, this relationship is further examined using simulations and the analysis of a case study. The results indicate that the extent to which both paradigms lead to similar conclusions regarding the validity of the surrogate, depends on a complex interplay between multiple factors like the ratio of the between and within trial variability and the unidentifiable correlations between the potential outcomes. All the analyses were carried out using the newly developed R package Surrogate, which is freely available via CRAN. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Robust estimation of the proportion of treatment effect explained by surrogate marker information.

PubMed

Parast, Layla; McDermott, Mary M; Tian, Lu

2016-05-10

In randomized treatment studies where the primary outcome requires long follow-up of patients and/or expensive or invasive obtainment procedures, the availability of a surrogate marker that could be used to estimate the treatment effect and could potentially be observed earlier than the primary outcome would allow researchers to make conclusions regarding the treatment effect with less required follow-up time and resources. The Prentice criterion for a valid surrogate marker requires that a test for treatment effect on the surrogate marker also be a valid test for treatment effect on the primary outcome of interest. Based on this criterion, methods have been developed to define and estimate the proportion of treatment effect on the primary outcome that is explained by the treatment effect on the surrogate marker. These methods aim to identify useful statistical surrogates that capture a large proportion of the treatment effect. However, current methods to estimate this proportion usually require restrictive model assumptions that may not hold in practice and thus may lead to biased estimates of this quantity. In this paper, we propose a nonparametric procedure to estimate the proportion of treatment effect on the primary outcome that is explained by the treatment effect on a potential surrogate marker and extend this procedure to a setting with multiple surrogate markers. We compare our approach with previously proposed model-based approaches and propose a variance estimation procedure based on a perturbation-resampling method. Simulation studies demonstrate that the procedure performs well in finite samples and outperforms model-based procedures when the specified models are not correct. We illustrate our proposed procedure using a data set from a randomized study investigating a group-mediated cognitive behavioral intervention for peripheral artery disease participants. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The {sup 95}Zr( n , γ ){sup 96}Zr Cross Section from the Surrogate Ratio Method and Its Effect on s -process Nucleosynthesis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, S.Q.; Li, Z.H.; Wang, Y.B.

The {sup 95}Zr( n , γ ){sup 96}Zr reaction cross section is crucial in the modeling of s -process nucleosynthesis in asymptotic giant branch stars because it controls the operation of the branching point at the unstable {sup 95}Zr and the subsequent production of {sup 96}Zr. We have carried out the measurement of the {sup 94}Zr({sup 18}O, {sup 16}O) and {sup 90}Zr({sup 18}O, {sup 16}O) reactions and obtained the γ -decay probability ratio of {sup 96}Zr* and {sup 92}Zr* to determine the {sup 95}Zr( n , γ ){sup 96}Zr reaction cross sections with the surrogate ratio method. Our deduced Maxwellian-averagedmore » cross section of 66 ± 16 mb at 30 keV is close to the value recommended by Bao et al., but 30% and more than a factor of two larger than the values proposed by Toukan and Käppeler and Lugaro et al., respectively, and routinely used in s -process models. We tested the new rate in stellar models with masses between 2 and 6 M {sub ⊙} and metallicities of 0.014 and 0.03. The largest changes—up to 80% variations in {sup 96}Zr—are seen in models of mass 3–4 M {sub ⊙}, where the {sup 22}Ne neutron source is mildly activated. The new rate can still provide a match to data from meteoritic stardust silicon carbide grains, provided that the maximum mass of the parent stars is below 4 M {sub ⊙}, for a metallicity of 0.03.« less

Surrogate immiscible liquid pairs with refractive indexes matchable over a wide range of density and viscosity ratios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saksena, Rajat; Christensen, Kenneth T.; Pearlstein, Arne J.

2015-08-01

In liquid-liquid flows, use of optical diagnostics is limited by interphase refractive index mismatch, which leads to optical distortion and complicates data interpretation, and sometimes also by opacity. Both problems can be eliminated using a surrogate pair of immiscible index-matched transparent liquids, whose density and viscosity ratios match corresponding ratios for the original liquid pair. We show that a wide range of density and viscosity ratios is accessible using aqueous solutions of 1,2-propanediol and CsBr (for which index, density, and viscosity are available), and solutions of light and heavy silicone oils and 1-bromooctane (for which we measured the same properties at 119 compositions). For each liquid phase, polynomials in the composition variables, least-squares fitted to index and density and to the logarithm of kinematic viscosity, were used to determine accessible density and viscosity ratios for each matchable index. Index-matched solution pairs can be prepared with density and viscosity ratios equal to those for water-liquid CO2 at 0 °C over a range of pressure (allowing water-liquid CO2 behavior at inconveniently high pressure to be simulated by 1-bar experiments), and for water-crude oil and water-trichloroethylene (avoiding opacity and toxicity problems, respectively), each over a range of temperature. For representative index-matched solutions, equilibration changes index, density, and viscosity only slightly, and mass spectrometry and elemental analysis show that no component of either phase has significant interphase solubility. Finally, procedures are described for iteratively reducing the residual index mismatch in surrogate solution pairs prepared on the basis of approximate polynomial fits to experimental data, and for systematically dealing with nonzero interphase solubility.

Maintaining tumor targeting accuracy in real-time motion compensation systems for respiration-induced tumor motion

PubMed Central

Malinowski, Kathleen; McAvoy, Thomas J.; George, Rohini; Dieterich, Sonja; D’Souza, Warren D.

2013-01-01

Purpose: To determine how best to time respiratory surrogate-based tumor motion model updates by comparing a novel technique based on external measurements alone to three direct measurement methods. Methods: Concurrently measured tumor and respiratory surrogate positions from 166 treatment fractions for lung or pancreas lesions were analyzed. Partial-least-squares regression models of tumor position from marker motion were created from the first six measurements in each dataset. Successive tumor localizations were obtained at a rate of once per minute on average. Model updates were timed according to four methods: never, respiratory surrogate-based (when metrics based on respiratory surrogate measurements exceeded confidence limits), error-based (when localization error ≥3 mm), and always (approximately once per minute). Results: Radial tumor displacement prediction errors (mean ± standard deviation) for the four schema described above were 2.4 ± 1.2, 1.9 ± 0.9, 1.9 ± 0.8, and 1.7 ± 0.8 mm, respectively. The never-update error was significantly larger than errors of the other methods. Mean update counts over 20 min were 0, 4, 9, and 24, respectively. Conclusions: The same improvement in tumor localization accuracy could be achieved through any of the three update methods, but significantly fewer updates were required when the respiratory surrogate method was utilized. This study establishes the feasibility of timing image acquisitions for updating respiratory surrogate models without direct tumor localization. PMID:23822413

Validation of surrogate endpoints in cancer clinical trials via principal stratification with an application to a prostate cancer trial.

PubMed

Tanaka, Shiro; Matsuyama, Yutaka; Ohashi, Yasuo

2017-08-30

Increasing attention has been focused on the use and validation of surrogate endpoints in cancer clinical trials. Previous literature on validation of surrogate endpoints are classified into four approaches: the proportion explained approach; the indirect effects approach; the meta-analytic approach; and the principal stratification approach. The mainstream in cancer research has seen the application of a meta-analytic approach. However, VanderWeele (2013) showed that all four of these approaches potentially suffer from the surrogate paradox. It was also shown that, if a principal surrogate satisfies additional criteria called one-sided average causal sufficiency, the surrogate cannot exhibit a surrogate paradox. Here, we propose a method for estimating principal effects under a monotonicity assumption. Specifically, we consider cancer clinical trials which compare a binary surrogate endpoint and a time-to-event clinical endpoint under two naturally ordered treatments (e.g. combined therapy vs. monotherapy). Estimation based on a mean score estimating equation will be implemented by the expectation-maximization algorithm. We will also apply the proposed method as well as other surrogacy criteria to evaluate the surrogacy of prostate-specific antigen using data from a phase III advanced prostate cancer trial, clarifying the complementary roles of both the principal stratification and meta-analytic approaches in the evaluation of surrogate endpoints in cancer. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Fasting insulin sensitivity indices are not better than routine clinical variables at predicting insulin sensitivity among Black Africans: a clamp study in sub-Saharan Africans

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background We aimed to evaluate the predictive utility of common fasting insulin sensitivity indices, and non-laboratory surrogates [BMI, waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR)] in sub-Saharan Africans without diabetes. Methods We measured fasting glucose and insulin, and glucose uptake during 80/mU/m2/min euglycemic clamp in 87 Cameroonians (51 men) aged (SD) 34.6 (11.4) years. We derived insulin sensitivity indices including HOMA-IR, quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI), fasting insulin resistance index (FIRI) and glucose-to-insulin ratio (GIR). Indices and clinical predictors were compared to clamp using correlation tests, robust linear regressions and agreement of classification by sex-specific thirds. Results The mean insulin sensitivity was M = 10.5 ± 3.2 mg/kg/min. Classification across thirds of insulin sensitivity by clamp matched with non-laboratory surrogates in 30-48% of participants, and with fasting indices in 27-51%, with kappa statistics ranging from −0.10 to 0.26. Fasting indices correlated significantly with clamp (/r/=0.23-0.30), with GIR performing less well than fasting insulin and HOMA-IR (both p < 0.02). BMI, WC and WHtR were equal or superior to fasting indices (/r/=0.38-0.43). Combinations of fasting indices and clinical predictors explained 25-27% of variation in clamp values. Conclusion Fasting insulin sensitivity indices are modest predictors of insulin sensitivity measured by euglycemic clamp, and do not perform better than clinical surrogates in this population. PMID:25106496

Modeling methods for merging computational and experimental aerodynamic pressure data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haderlie, Jacob C.

This research describes a process to model surface pressure data sets as a function of wing geometry from computational and wind tunnel sources and then merge them into a single predicted value. The described merging process will enable engineers to integrate these data sets with the goal of utilizing the advantages of each data source while overcoming the limitations of both; this provides a single, combined data set to support analysis and design. The main challenge with this process is accurately representing each data source everywhere on the wing. Additionally, this effort demonstrates methods to model wind tunnel pressure data as a function of angle of attack as an initial step towards a merging process that uses both location on the wing and flow conditions (e.g., angle of attack, flow velocity or Reynold's number) as independent variables. This surrogate model of pressure as a function of angle of attack can be useful for engineers that need to predict the location of zero-order discontinuities, e.g., flow separation or normal shocks. Because, to the author's best knowledge, there is no published, well-established merging method for aerodynamic pressure data (here, the coefficient of pressure Cp), this work identifies promising modeling and merging methods, and then makes a critical comparison of these methods. Surrogate models represent the pressure data for both data sets. Cubic B-spline surrogate models represent the computational simulation results. Machine learning and multi-fidelity surrogate models represent the experimental data. This research compares three surrogates for the experimental data (sequential--a.k.a. online--Gaussian processes, batch Gaussian processes, and multi-fidelity additive corrector) on the merits of accuracy and computational cost. The Gaussian process (GP) methods employ cubic B-spline CFD surrogates as a model basis function to build a surrogate model of the WT data, and this usage of the CFD surrogate in building the WT data could serve as a "merging" because the resulting WT pressure prediction uses information from both sources. In the GP approach, this model basis function concept seems to place more "weight" on the Cp values from the wind tunnel (WT) because the GP surrogate uses the CFD to approximate the WT data values. Conversely, the computationally inexpensive additive corrector method uses the CFD B-spline surrogate to define the shape of the spanwise distribution of the Cp while minimizing prediction error at all spanwise locations for a given arc length position; this, too, combines information from both sources to make a prediction of the 2-D WT-based Cp distribution, but the additive corrector approach gives more weight to the CFD prediction than to the WT data. Three surrogate models of the experimental data as a function of angle of attack are also compared for accuracy and computational cost. These surrogates are a single Gaussian process model (a single "expert"), product of experts, and generalized product of experts. The merging approach provides a single pressure distribution that combines experimental and computational data. The batch Gaussian process method provides a relatively accurate surrogate that is computationally acceptable, and can receive wind tunnel data from port locations that are not necessarily parallel to a variable direction. On the other hand, the sequential Gaussian process and additive corrector methods must receive a sufficient number of data points aligned with one direction, e.g., from pressure port bands (tap rows) aligned with the freestream. The generalized product of experts best represents wind tunnel pressure as a function of angle of attack, but at higher computational cost than the single expert approach. The format of the application data from computational and experimental sources in this work precluded the merging process from including flow condition variables (e.g., angle of attack) in the independent variables, so the merging process is only conducted in the wing geometry variables of arc length and span. The merging process of Cp data allows a more "hands-off" approach to aircraft design and analysis, (i.e., not as many engineers needed to debate the Cp distribution shape) and generates Cp predictions at any location on the wing. However, the cost with these benefits are engineer time (learning how to build surrogates), computational time in constructing the surrogates, and surrogate accuracy (surrogates introduce error into data predictions). This dissertation effort used the Trap Wing / First AIAA CFD High-Lift Prediction Workshop as a relevant transonic wing with a multi-element high-lift system, and this work identified that the batch GP model for the WT data and the B-spline surrogate for the CFD might best be combined using expert belief weights to describe Cp as a function of location on the wing element surface. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

Beyond multi-fractals: surrogate time series and fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venema, V.; Simmer, C.

2007-12-01

Most natural complex are characterised by variability on a large range of temporal and spatial scales. The two main methodologies to generate such structures are Fourier/FARIMA based algorithms and multifractal methods. The former is restricted to Gaussian data, whereas the latter requires the structure to be self-similar. This work will present so-called surrogate data as an alternative that works with any (empirical) distribution and power spectrum. The best-known surrogate algorithm is the iterative amplitude adjusted Fourier transform (IAAFT) algorithm. We have studied six different geophysical time series (two clouds, runoff of a small and a large river, temperature and rain) and their surrogates. The power spectra and consequently the 2nd order structure functions were replicated accurately. Even the fourth order structure function was more accurately reproduced by the surrogates as would be possible by a fractal method, because the measured structure deviated too strong from fractal scaling. Only in case of the daily rain sums a fractal method could have been more accurate. Just as Fourier and multifractal methods, the current surrogates are not able to model the asymmetric increment distributions observed for runoff, i.e., they cannot reproduce nonlinear dynamical processes that are asymmetric in time. Furthermore, we have found differences for the structure functions on small scales. Surrogate methods are especially valuable for empirical studies, because the time series and fields that are generated are able to mimic measured variables accurately. Our main application is radiative transfer through structured clouds. Like many geophysical fields, clouds can only be sampled sparsely, e.g. with in-situ airborne instruments. However, for radiative transfer calculations we need full 3-dimensional cloud fields. A first study relating the measured properties of the cloud droplets and the radiative properties of the cloud field by generating surrogate cloud fields yielded good results within the measurement error. A further test of the suitability of the surrogate clouds for radiative transfer is evaluated by comparing the radiative properties of model cloud fields of sparse cumulus and stratocumulus with their surrogate fields. The bias and root mean square error in various radiative properties is small and the deviations in the radiances and irradiances are not statistically significant, i.e. these deviations can be attributed to the Monte Carlo noise of the radiative transfer calculations. We compared these results with optical properties of synthetic clouds that have either the correct distribution (but no spatial correlations) or the correct power spectrum (but a Gaussian distribution). These clouds did show statistical significant deviations. For more information see: http://www.meteo.uni-bonn.de/venema/themes/surrogates/

A multi-damages identification method for cantilever beam based on mode shape curvatures and Kriging surrogate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Fengle; Jiang, Zhansi; Jiang, Hui

2018-05-01

This paper presents a multi-damages identification method for Cantilever Beam. First, the damage location is identified by using the mode shape curvatures. Second, samples of varying damage severities at the damage location and their corresponding natural frequencies are used to construct the initial Kriging surrogate model. Then a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is employed to identify the damage severities based on Kriging surrogate model. The simulation study of a double-damaged cantilever beam demonstrated that the proposed method is effective.

Trends in Utilization of Surrogate Endpoints in Contemporary Cardiovascular Clinical Trials.

PubMed

Patel, Ravi B; Vaduganathan, Muthiah; Samman-Tahhan, Ayman; Kalogeropoulos, Andreas P; Georgiopoulou, Vasiliki V; Fonarow, Gregg C; Gheorghiade, Mihai; Butler, Javed

2016-06-01

Surrogate endpoints facilitate trial efficiency but are variably linked to clinical outcomes, and limited data are available exploring their utilization in cardiovascular clinical trials over time. We abstracted data regarding primary clinical, intermediate, and surrogate endpoints from all phase II to IV cardiovascular clinical trials from 2001 to 2012 published in the 8 highest Web of Science impact factor journals. Two investigators independently classified the type of primary endpoint. Of the 1,224 trials evaluated, 677 (55.3%) primary endpoints were clinical, 165 (13.5%) intermediate, and 382 (31.2%) surrogate. The relative proportions of these endpoints remained constant over time (p = 0.98). Trials using surrogate endpoints were smaller (187 vs 1,028 patients) and enrolled patients more expeditiously (1.4 vs 0.9 patients per site per month) compared with trials using clinical endpoints (p <0.001 for both comparisons). Surrogate endpoint trials were independently more likely to meet their primary endpoint compared to trials with clinical endpoints (adjusted odds ratio 1.56, 95% CI 1.05 to 2.34; p = 0.03). Rates of positive results in clinical endpoint trials have decreased over time from 66.1% in 2001 to 2003 to 47.2% in 2010 to 2012 (p = 0.001), whereas these rates have remained stable over the same period for surrogate (72.0% to 69.3%, p = 0.27) and intermediate endpoints (74.4% to 71.4%, p = 0.98). In conclusion, approximately a third of contemporary cardiovascular trials use surrogate endpoints. These trials are completed more expeditiously and are more likely to meet their primary outcomes. The overall scientific contribution of these surrogate endpoint trials requires further attention given their variable association with definitive outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Error modeling for surrogates of dynamical systems using machine learning: Machine-learning-based error model for surrogates of dynamical systems

DOE PAGES

Trehan, Sumeet; Carlberg, Kevin T.; Durlofsky, Louis J.

2017-07-14

A machine learning–based framework for modeling the error introduced by surrogate models of parameterized dynamical systems is proposed. The framework entails the use of high-dimensional regression techniques (eg, random forests, and LASSO) to map a large set of inexpensively computed “error indicators” (ie, features) produced by the surrogate model at a given time instance to a prediction of the surrogate-model error in a quantity of interest (QoI). This eliminates the need for the user to hand-select a small number of informative features. The methodology requires a training set of parameter instances at which the time-dependent surrogate-model error is computed bymore » simulating both the high-fidelity and surrogate models. Using these training data, the method first determines regression-model locality (via classification or clustering) and subsequently constructs a “local” regression model to predict the time-instantaneous error within each identified region of feature space. We consider 2 uses for the resulting error model: (1) as a correction to the surrogate-model QoI prediction at each time instance and (2) as a way to statistically model arbitrary functions of the time-dependent surrogate-model error (eg, time-integrated errors). We then apply the proposed framework to model errors in reduced-order models of nonlinear oil-water subsurface flow simulations, with time-varying well-control (bottom-hole pressure) parameters. The reduced-order models used in this work entail application of trajectory piecewise linearization in conjunction with proper orthogonal decomposition. Moreover, when the first use of the method is considered, numerical experiments demonstrate consistent improvement in accuracy in the time-instantaneous QoI prediction relative to the original surrogate model, across a large number of test cases. When the second use is considered, results show that the proposed method provides accurate statistical predictions of the time- and well-averaged errors.« less

Error modeling for surrogates of dynamical systems using machine learning: Machine-learning-based error model for surrogates of dynamical systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Trehan, Sumeet; Carlberg, Kevin T.; Durlofsky, Louis J.

A machine learning–based framework for modeling the error introduced by surrogate models of parameterized dynamical systems is proposed. The framework entails the use of high-dimensional regression techniques (eg, random forests, and LASSO) to map a large set of inexpensively computed “error indicators” (ie, features) produced by the surrogate model at a given time instance to a prediction of the surrogate-model error in a quantity of interest (QoI). This eliminates the need for the user to hand-select a small number of informative features. The methodology requires a training set of parameter instances at which the time-dependent surrogate-model error is computed bymore » simulating both the high-fidelity and surrogate models. Using these training data, the method first determines regression-model locality (via classification or clustering) and subsequently constructs a “local” regression model to predict the time-instantaneous error within each identified region of feature space. We consider 2 uses for the resulting error model: (1) as a correction to the surrogate-model QoI prediction at each time instance and (2) as a way to statistically model arbitrary functions of the time-dependent surrogate-model error (eg, time-integrated errors). We then apply the proposed framework to model errors in reduced-order models of nonlinear oil-water subsurface flow simulations, with time-varying well-control (bottom-hole pressure) parameters. The reduced-order models used in this work entail application of trajectory piecewise linearization in conjunction with proper orthogonal decomposition. Moreover, when the first use of the method is considered, numerical experiments demonstrate consistent improvement in accuracy in the time-instantaneous QoI prediction relative to the original surrogate model, across a large number of test cases. When the second use is considered, results show that the proposed method provides accurate statistical predictions of the time- and well-averaged errors.« less

A comparative research of different ensemble surrogate models based on set pair analysis for the DNAPL-contaminated aquifer remediation strategy optimization.

PubMed

Hou, Zeyu; Lu, Wenxi; Xue, Haibo; Lin, Jin

2017-08-01

Surrogate-based simulation-optimization technique is an effective approach for optimizing the surfactant enhanced aquifer remediation (SEAR) strategy for clearing DNAPLs. The performance of the surrogate model, which is used to replace the simulation model for the aim of reducing computation burden, is the key of corresponding researches. However, previous researches are generally based on a stand-alone surrogate model, and rarely make efforts to improve the approximation accuracy of the surrogate model to the simulation model sufficiently by combining various methods. In this regard, we present set pair analysis (SPA) as a new method to build ensemble surrogate (ES) model, and conducted a comparative research to select a better ES modeling pattern for the SEAR strategy optimization problems. Surrogate models were developed using radial basis function artificial neural network (RBFANN), support vector regression (SVR), and Kriging. One ES model is assembling RBFANN model, SVR model, and Kriging model using set pair weights according their performance, and the other is assembling several Kriging (the best surrogate modeling method of three) models built with different training sample datasets. Finally, an optimization model, in which the ES model was embedded, was established to obtain the optimal remediation strategy. The results showed the residuals of the outputs between the best ES model and simulation model for 100 testing samples were lower than 1.5%. Using an ES model instead of the simulation model was critical for considerably reducing the computation time of simulation-optimization process and maintaining high computation accuracy simultaneously. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamic properties of combustion instability in a lean premixed gas-turbine combustor.

PubMed

Gotoda, Hiroshi; Nikimoto, Hiroyuki; Miyano, Takaya; Tachibana, Shigeru

2011-03-01

We experimentally investigate the dynamic behavior of the combustion instability in a lean premixed gas-turbine combustor from the viewpoint of nonlinear dynamics. A nonlinear time series analysis in combination with a surrogate data method clearly reveals that as the equivalence ratio increases, the dynamic behavior of the combustion instability undergoes a significant transition from stochastic fluctuation to periodic oscillation through low-dimensional chaotic oscillation. We also show that a nonlinear forecasting method is useful for predicting the short-term dynamic behavior of the combustion instability in a lean premixed gas-turbine combustor, which has not been addressed in the fields of combustion science and physics.

Accurate quantification of PGE2 in the polyposis in rat colon (Pirc) model by surrogate analyte-based UPLC-MS/MS.

PubMed

Yun, Changhong; Dashwood, Wan-Mohaiza; Kwong, Lawrence N; Gao, Song; Yin, Taijun; Ling, Qinglan; Singh, Rashim; Dashwood, Roderick H; Hu, Ming

2018-01-30

An accurate and reliable UPLC-MS/MS method is reported for the quantification of endogenous Prostaglandin E2 (PGE 2 ) in rat colonic mucosa and polyps. This method adopted the "surrogate analyte plus authentic bio-matrix" approach, using two different stable isotopic labeled analogs - PGE 2 -d9 as the surrogate analyte and PGE 2 -d4 as the internal standard. A quantitative standard curve was constructed with the surrogate analyte in colonic mucosa homogenate, and the method was successfully validated with the authentic bio-matrix. Concentrations of endogenous PGE 2 in both normal and inflammatory tissue homogenates were back-calculated based on the regression equation. Because of no endogenous interference on the surrogate analyte determination, the specificity was particularly good. By using authentic bio-matrix for validation, the matrix effect and exaction recovery are identically same for the quantitative standard curve and actual samples - this notably increased the assay accuracy. The method is easy, fast, robust and reliable for colon PGE 2 determination. This "surrogate analyte" approach was applied to measure the Pirc (an Apc-mutant rat kindred that models human FAP) mucosa and polyps PGE 2 , one of the strong biomarkers of colorectal cancer. A similar concept could be applied to endogenous biomarkers in other tissues. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Surrogate analyte approach for quantitation of endogenous NAD(+) in human acidified blood samples using liquid chromatography coupled with electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry.

PubMed

Liu, Liling; Cui, Zhiyi; Deng, Yuzhong; Dean, Brian; Hop, Cornelis E C A; Liang, Xiaorong

2016-02-01

A high-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) assay for the quantitative determination of NAD(+) in human whole blood using a surrogate analyte approach was developed and validated. Human whole blood was acidified using 0.5N perchloric acid at a ratio of 1:3 (v:v, blood:perchloric acid) during sample collection. 25μL of acidified blood was extracted using a protein precipitation method and the resulting extracts were analyzed using reverse-phase chromatography and positive electrospray ionization mass spectrometry. (13)C5-NAD(+) was used as the surrogate analyte for authentic analyte, NAD(+). The standard curve ranging from 0.250 to 25.0μg/mL in acidified human blood for (13)C5-NAD(+) was fitted to a 1/x(2) weighted linear regression model. The LC-MS/MS response between surrogate analyte and authentic analyte at the same concentration was obtained before and after the batch run. This response factor was not applied when determining the NAD(+) concentration from the (13)C5-NAD(+) standard curve since the percent difference was less than 5%. The precision and accuracy of the LC-MS/MS assay based on the five analytical QC levels were well within the acceptance criteria from both FDA and EMA guidance for bioanalytical method validation. Average extraction recovery of (13)C5-NAD(+) was 94.6% across the curve range. Matrix factor was 0.99 for both high and low QC indicating minimal ion suppression or enhancement. The validated assay was used to measure the baseline level of NAD(+) in 29 male and 21 female human subjects. This assay was also used to study the circadian effect of endogenous level of NAD(+) in 10 human subjects. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A surrogate analyte-based liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method for the determination of endogenous cyclic nucleotides in rat brain.

PubMed

Chen, Jie; Tabatabaei, Ali; Zook, Doug; Wang, Yan; Danks, Anne; Stauber, Kathe

2017-11-30

A robust high-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) assay was developed and qualified for the measurement of cyclic nucleotides (cNTs) in rat brain tissue. Stable isotopically labeled 3',5'-cyclic adenosine- 13 C 5 monophosphate ( 13 C 5 -cAMP) and 3',5'-cyclic guanosine- 13 C, 15 N 2 monophosphate ( 13 C 15 N 2 -cGMP) were used as surrogate analytes to measure endogenous 3',5'-cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP) and 3',5'-cyclic guanosine monophosphate (cGMP). Pre-weighed frozen rat brain samples were rapidly homogenized in 0.4M perchloric acid at a ratio of 1:4 (w/v). Following internal standard addition and dilution, the resulting extracts were analyzed using negative ion mode electrospray ionization LC-MS/MS. The calibration curves for both analytes ranged from 5 to 2000ng/g and showed excellent linearity (r 2 >0.996). Relative surrogate analyte-to-analyte LC-MS/MS responses were determined to correct concentrations derived from the surrogate curves. The intra-run precision (CV%) for 13 C 5 -cAMP and 13 C 15 N 2 -cGMP was below 6.6% and 7.4%, respectively, while the inter-run precision (CV%) was 8.5% and 5.8%, respectively. The intra-run accuracy (Dev%) for 13 C 5 -cAMP and 13 C 15 N 2 -cGMP was <11.9% and 10.3%, respectively, and the inter-run Dev% was <6.8% and 5.5%, respectively. Qualification experiments demonstrated high analyte recoveries, minimal matrix effects and low autosampler carryover. Acceptable frozen storage, freeze/thaw, benchtop, processed sample and autosampler stability were shown in brain sample homogenates as well as post-processed samples. The method was found to be suitable for the analysis of rat brain tissue cAMP and cGMP levels in preclinical biomarker development studies. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

40 CFR Appendix A to Part 63 - Test Methods

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... components by a different analyst). 3.3Surrogate Reference Materials. The analyst may use surrogate compounds... the variance of the proposed method is significantly different from that of the validated method by... variables can be determined in eight experiments rather than 128 (W.J. Youden, Statistical Manual of the...

Doubt and belief in physicians' ability to prognosticate during critical illness: The perspective of surrogate decision makers

PubMed Central

Zier, Lucas S.; Burack, Jeffrey H.; Micco, Guy; Chipman, Anne K.; Frank, James A.; Luce, John M.; White, Douglas B.

2009-01-01

Objectives: Although discussing a prognosis is a duty of physicians caring for critically ill patients, little is known about surrogate decision-makers' beliefs about physicians' ability to prognosticate. We sought to determine: 1) surrogates' beliefs about whether physicians can accurately prognosticate for critically ill patients; and 2) how individuals use prognostic information in their role as surrogate decision-makers. Design, Setting, and Patients: Multicenter study in intensive care units of a public hospital, a tertiary care hospital, and a veterans' hospital. We conducted semistructured interviews with 50 surrogate decision-makers of critically ill patients. We analyzed the interview transcripts using grounded theory methods to inductively develop a framework to describe surrogates' beliefs about physicians' ability to prognosticate. Validation methods included triangulation by multidisciplinary analysis and member checking. Measurements and Main Results: Overall, 88% (44 of 50) of surrogates expressed doubt about physicians' ability to prognosticate for critically ill patients. Four distinct themes emerged that explained surrogates' doubts about prognostic accuracy: a belief that God could alter the course of the illness, a belief that predicting the future is inherently uncertain, prior experiences where physicians' prognostications were inaccurate, and experiences with prognostication during the patient's intensive care unit stay. Participants also identified several factors that led to belief in physicians' prognostications, such as receiving similar prognostic estimates from multiple physicians and prior experiences with accurate prognostication. Surrogates' doubts about prognostic accuracy did not prevent them from wanting prognostic information. Instead, most surrogate decision-makers view physicians' prognostications as rough estimates that are valuable in informing decisions, but are not determinative. Surrogates identified the act of prognostic disclosure as a key step in preparing emotionally and practically for the possibility that a patient may not survive. Conclusions: Although many surrogate decision-makers harbor some doubt about the accuracy of physicians' prognostications, they highly value discussions about prognosis and use the information for multiple purposes. (Crit Care Med 2008; 36: 2341–2347) PMID:18596630

Testing for intracycle determinism in pseudoperiodic time series.

PubMed

Coelho, Mara C S; Mendes, Eduardo M A M; Aguirre, Luis A

2008-06-01

A determinism test is proposed based on the well-known method of the surrogate data. Assuming predictability to be a signature of determinism, the proposed method checks for intracycle (e.g., short-term) determinism in the pseudoperiodic time series for which standard methods of surrogate analysis do not apply. The approach presented is composed of two steps. First, the data are preprocessed to reduce the effects of seasonal and trend components. Second, standard tests of surrogate analysis can then be used. The determinism test is applied to simulated and experimental pseudoperiodic time series and the results show the applicability of the proposed test.

A simple analytical procedure to replace HPLC for monitoring treatment concentrations of chloramine-T on fish culture facilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dawson, Verdel K.; Meinertz, Jeffery R.; Schmidt, Larry J.; Gingerich, William H.

2003-01-01

Concentrations of chloramine-T must be monitored during experimental treatments of fish when studying the effectiveness of the drug for controlling bacterial gill disease. A surrogate analytical method for analysis of chloramine-T to replace the existing high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method is described. A surrogate method was needed because the existing HPLC method is expensive, requires a specialist to use, and is not generally available at fish hatcheries. Criteria for selection of a replacement method included ease of use, analysis time, cost, safety, sensitivity, accuracy, and precision. The most promising approach was to use the determination of chlorine concentrations as an indicator of chloramine-T. Of the currently available methods for analysis of chlorine, the DPD (N,N-diethyl-p-phenylenediamine) colorimetric method best fit the established criteria. The surrogate method was evaluated under a variety of water quality conditions. Regression analysis of all DPD colorimetric analyses with the HPLC values produced a linear model (Y=0.9602 X+0.1259) with an r2 value of 0.9960. The average accuracy (percent recovery) of the DPD method relative to the HPLC method for the combined set of water quality data was 101.5%. The surrogate method was also evaluated with chloramine-T solutions that contained various concentrations of fish feed or selected densities of rainbow trout. When samples were analyzed within 2 h, the results of the surrogate method were consistent with those of the HPLC method. When samples with high concentrations of organic material were allowed to age more than 2 h before being analyzed, the DPD method seemed to be susceptible to interference, possibly from the development of other chloramine compounds. However, even after aging samples 6 h, the accuracy of the surrogate DPD method relative to the HPLC method was within the range of 80–120%. Based on the data comparing the two methods, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has concluded that the DPD colorimetric method is appropriate to use to measure chloramine-T in water during pivotal efficacy trials designed to support the approval of chloramine-T for use in fish culture.

Hypothesis test for synchronization: twin surrogates revisited.

PubMed

Romano, M Carmen; Thiel, Marco; Kurths, Jürgen; Mergenthaler, Konstantin; Engbert, Ralf

2009-03-01

The method of twin surrogates has been introduced to test for phase synchronization of complex systems in the case of passive experiments. In this paper we derive new analytical expressions for the number of twins depending on the size of the neighborhood, as well as on the length of the trajectory. This allows us to determine the optimal parameters for the generation of twin surrogates. Furthermore, we determine the quality of the twin surrogates with respect to several linear and nonlinear statistics depending on the parameters of the method. In the second part of the paper we perform a hypothesis test for phase synchronization in the case of experimental data from fixational eye movements. These miniature eye movements have been shown to play a central role in neural information processing underlying the perception of static visual scenes. The high number of data sets (21 subjects and 30 trials per person) allows us to compare the generated twin surrogates with the "natural" surrogates that correspond to the different trials. We show that the generated twin surrogates reproduce very well all linear and nonlinear characteristics of the underlying experimental system. The synchronization analysis of fixational eye movements by means of twin surrogates reveals that the synchronization between the left and right eye is significant, indicating that either the centers in the brain stem generating fixational eye movements are closely linked, or, alternatively that there is only one center controlling both eyes.

Emotional experiences in surrogate mothers: A qualitative study.

PubMed

Ahmari Tehran, Hoda; Tashi, Shohreh; Mehran, Nahid; Eskandari, Narges; Dadkhah Tehrani, Tahmineh

2014-07-01

Surrogacy is one of the new techniques of assisted reproduction technology in which a woman carries and bears a child for another woman. In Iran, many Shia clerics and jurists considered it permissible so there is no religious prohibition for it. In addition to the risk of physical complications for complete surrogate mothers, the possibility of psychological complications resulted from emotional attachment to a living creature in the surrogate mother as another injury requires counseling and assessment prior to acceptance by infertile couples and complete surrogate mothers. The purpose of this study was to assess the emotional experiences of surrogate mothers. This was a qualitative, phenomenological study. We selected eight complete surrogate mothers in Isfahan. We used convenient sampling method and in-depth interview to collect the information. The data analysis was fulfilled via Colaizzi's seven-stage method. Reliability and validity study of the roots in the four-axis was done. The findings of these interviews were classified into two main themes and four sub themes: acquired experiences in pregnancy (feelings toward pregnancy, relationship with family, relatives and commissioning couple) and consequences of surrogacy (complications of pregnancy, religious and financial problems of surrogacy). Surrogacy pregnancy should be considered as high-risk emotional experience because many of surrogate mothers may face negative experiences. Therefore, it is recommended that surrogates should receive professional counseling prior to, during and following pregnancy.

Bayesian meta-analytical methods to incorporate multiple surrogate endpoints in drug development process.

PubMed

Bujkiewicz, Sylwia; Thompson, John R; Riley, Richard D; Abrams, Keith R

2016-03-30

A number of meta-analytical methods have been proposed that aim to evaluate surrogate endpoints. Bivariate meta-analytical methods can be used to predict the treatment effect for the final outcome from the treatment effect estimate measured on the surrogate endpoint while taking into account the uncertainty around the effect estimate for the surrogate endpoint. In this paper, extensions to multivariate models are developed aiming to include multiple surrogate endpoints with the potential benefit of reducing the uncertainty when making predictions. In this Bayesian multivariate meta-analytic framework, the between-study variability is modelled in a formulation of a product of normal univariate distributions. This formulation is particularly convenient for including multiple surrogate endpoints and flexible for modelling the outcomes which can be surrogate endpoints to the final outcome and potentially to one another. Two models are proposed, first, using an unstructured between-study covariance matrix by assuming the treatment effects on all outcomes are correlated and second, using a structured between-study covariance matrix by assuming treatment effects on some of the outcomes are conditionally independent. While the two models are developed for the summary data on a study level, the individual-level association is taken into account by the use of the Prentice's criteria (obtained from individual patient data) to inform the within study correlations in the models. The modelling techniques are investigated using an example in relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis where the disability worsening is the final outcome, while relapse rate and MRI lesions are potential surrogates to the disability progression. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluation of lung tumor motion management in radiation therapy with dynamic MRI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Seyoun; Farah, Rana; Shea, Steven M.; Tryggestad, Erik; Hales, Russell; Lee, Junghoon

2017-03-01

Surrogate-based tumor motion estimation and tracing methods are commonly used in radiotherapy despite the lack of continuous real time 3D tumor and surrogate data. In this study, we propose a method to simultaneously track the tumor and external surrogates with dynamic MRI, which allows us to evaluate their reproducible correlation. Four MRIcompatible fiducials are placed on the patient's chest and upper abdomen, and multi-slice 2D cine MRIs are acquired to capture the lung and whole tumor, followed by two-slice 2D cine MRIs to simultaneously track the tumor and fiducials, all in sagittal orientation. A phase-binned 4D-MRI is first reconstructed from multi-slice MR images using body area as a respiratory surrogate and group-wise registration. The 4D-MRI provides 3D template volumes for different breathing phases. 3D tumor position is calculated by 3D-2D template matching in which 3D tumor templates in 4D-MRI reconstruction and the 2D cine MRIs from the two-slice tracking dataset are registered. 3D trajectories of the external surrogates are derived via matching a 3D geometrical model to the fiducial segmentations on the 2D cine MRIs. We tested our method on five lung cancer patients. Internal target volume from 4D-CT showed average sensitivity of 86.5% compared to the actual tumor motion for 5 min. 3D tumor motion correlated with the external surrogate signal, but showed a noticeable phase mismatch. The 3D tumor trajectory showed significant cycle-to-cycle variation, while the external surrogate was not sensitive enough to capture such variations. Additionally, there was significant phase mismatch between surrogate signals obtained from fiducials at different locations.

Surrogate analysis and index developer (SAID) tool and real-time data dissemination utilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Domanski, Marian M.; Straub, Timothy D.; Wood, Molly S.; Landers, Mark N.; Wall, Gary R.; Brady, Steven J.

2015-01-01

The use of acoustic and other parameters as surrogates for suspended-sediment concentrations (SSC) in rivers has been successful in multiple applications across the Nation. Critical to advancing the operational use of surrogates are tools to process and evaluate the data along with the subsequent development of regression models from which real-time sediment concentrations can be made available to the public. Recent developments in both areas are having an immediate impact on surrogate research, and on surrogate monitoring sites currently in operation. The Surrogate Analysis and Index Developer (SAID) standalone tool, under development by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), assists in the creation of regression models that relate response and explanatory variables by providing visual and quantitative diagnostics to the user. SAID also processes acoustic parameters to be used as explanatory variables for suspended-sediment concentrations. The sediment acoustic method utilizes acoustic parameters from fixed-mount stationary equipment. The background theory and method used by the tool have been described in recent publications, and the tool also serves to support sediment-acoustic-index methods being drafted by the multi-agency Sediment Acoustic Leadership Team (SALT), and other surrogate guidelines like USGS Techniques and Methods 3-C4 for turbidity and SSC. The regression models in SAID can be used in utilities that have been developed to work with the USGS National Water Information System (NWIS) and for the USGS National Real-Time Water Quality (NRTWQ) Web site. The real-time dissemination of predicted SSC and prediction intervals for each time step has substantial potential to improve understanding of sediment-related water-quality and associated engineering and ecological management decisions.

Surrogate Based Uni/Multi-Objective Optimization and Distribution Estimation Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, W.; Duan, Q.; Huo, X.

2017-12-01

Parameter calibration has been demonstrated as an effective way to improve the performance of dynamic models, such as hydrological models, land surface models, weather and climate models etc. Traditional optimization algorithms usually cost a huge number of model evaluations, making dynamic model calibration very difficult, or even computationally prohibitive. With the help of a serious of recently developed adaptive surrogate-modelling based optimization methods: uni-objective optimization method ASMO, multi-objective optimization method MO-ASMO, and probability distribution estimation method ASMO-PODE, the number of model evaluations can be significantly reduced to several hundreds, making it possible to calibrate very expensive dynamic models, such as regional high resolution land surface models, weather forecast models such as WRF, and intermediate complexity earth system models such as LOVECLIM. This presentation provides a brief introduction to the common framework of adaptive surrogate-based optimization algorithms of ASMO, MO-ASMO and ASMO-PODE, a case study of Common Land Model (CoLM) calibration in Heihe river basin in Northwest China, and an outlook of the potential applications of the surrogate-based optimization methods.

Reduced-order surrogate models for Green's functions in black hole spacetimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galley, Chad; Wardell, Barry

2016-03-01

The fundamental nature of linear wave propagation in curved spacetime is encoded in the retarded Green's function (or propagator). Green's functions are useful tools because almost any field quantity of interest can be computed via convolution integrals with a source. In addition, perturbation theories involving nonlinear wave propagation can be expressed in terms of multiple convolutions of the Green's function. Recently, numerical solutions for propagators in black hole spacetimes have been found that are globally valid and accurate for computing physical quantities. However, the data generated is too large for practical use because the propagator depends on two spacetime points that must be sampled finely to yield accurate convolutions. I describe how to build a reduced-order model that can be evaluated as a substitute, or surrogate, for solutions of the curved spacetime Green's function equation. The resulting surrogate accurately and quickly models the original and out-of-sample data. I discuss applications of the surrogate, including self-consistent evolutions and waveforms of extreme mass ratio binaries. Green's function surrogate models provide a new and practical way to handle many old problems involving wave propagation and motion in curved spacetimes.

An entropy-based nonparametric test for the validation of surrogate endpoints.

PubMed

Miao, Xiaopeng; Wang, Yong-Cheng; Gangopadhyay, Ashis

2012-06-30

We present a nonparametric test to validate surrogate endpoints based on measure of divergence and random permutation. This test is a proposal to directly verify the Prentice statistical definition of surrogacy. The test does not impose distributional assumptions on the endpoints, and it is robust to model misspecification. Our simulation study shows that the proposed nonparametric test outperforms the practical test of the Prentice criterion in terms of both robustness of size and power. We also evaluate the performance of three leading methods that attempt to quantify the effect of surrogate endpoints. The proposed method is applied to validate magnetic resonance imaging lesions as the surrogate endpoint for clinical relapses in a multiple sclerosis trial. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Adaptive surrogate model based multi-objective transfer trajectory optimization between different libration points

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Haijun; Wang, Wei

2016-10-01

An adaptive surrogate model-based multi-objective optimization strategy that combines the benefits of invariant manifolds and low-thrust control toward developing a low-computational-cost transfer trajectory between libration orbits around the L1 and L2 libration points in the Sun-Earth system has been proposed in this paper. A new structure for a multi-objective transfer trajectory optimization model that divides the transfer trajectory into several segments and gives the dominations for invariant manifolds and low-thrust control in different segments has been established. To reduce the computational cost of multi-objective transfer trajectory optimization, a mixed sampling strategy-based adaptive surrogate model has been proposed. Numerical simulations show that the results obtained from the adaptive surrogate-based multi-objective optimization are in agreement with the results obtained using direct multi-objective optimization methods, and the computational workload of the adaptive surrogate-based multi-objective optimization is only approximately 10% of that of direct multi-objective optimization. Furthermore, the generating efficiency of the Pareto points of the adaptive surrogate-based multi-objective optimization is approximately 8 times that of the direct multi-objective optimization. Therefore, the proposed adaptive surrogate-based multi-objective optimization provides obvious advantages over direct multi-objective optimization methods.

A Taylor Expansion-Based Adaptive Design Strategy for Global Surrogate Modeling With Applications in Groundwater Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, Shaoxing; Lu, Dan; Shi, Xiaoqing; Zhang, Guannan; Ye, Ming; Wu, Jianfeng; Wu, Jichun

2017-12-01

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) for groundwater modeling are challenging because of the model complexity and significant computational requirements. To reduce the massive computational cost, a cheap-to-evaluate surrogate model is usually constructed to approximate and replace the expensive groundwater models in the GSA and UQ. Constructing an accurate surrogate requires actual model simulations on a number of parameter samples. Thus, a robust experimental design strategy is desired to locate informative samples so as to reduce the computational cost in surrogate construction and consequently to improve the efficiency in the GSA and UQ. In this study, we develop a Taylor expansion-based adaptive design (TEAD) that aims to build an accurate global surrogate model with a small training sample size. TEAD defines a novel hybrid score function to search informative samples, and a robust stopping criterion to terminate the sample search that guarantees the resulted approximation errors satisfy the desired accuracy. The good performance of TEAD in building global surrogate models is demonstrated in seven analytical functions with different dimensionality and complexity in comparison to two widely used experimental design methods. The application of the TEAD-based surrogate method in two groundwater models shows that the TEAD design can effectively improve the computational efficiency of GSA and UQ for groundwater modeling.

Optimal design and installation of ultra high bypass ratio turbofan nacelle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savelyev, Andrey; Zlenko, Nikolay; Matyash, Evgeniy; Mikhaylov, Sergey; Shenkin, Andrey

2016-10-01

The paper is devoted to the problem of designing and optimizing the nacelle of turbojet bypass engine with high bypass ratio and high thrust. An optimization algorithm EGO based on development of surrogate models and the method for maximizing the probability of improving the objective function has been used. The designing methodology has been based on the numerical solution of the Reynolds equations system. Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model has been chosen for RANS closure. The effective thrust losses has been uses as an objective function in optimizing the engine nacelle. As a result of optimization, effective thrust has been increased by 1.5 %. The Blended wing body aircraft configuration has been studied as a possible application. Two variants of the engine layout arrangement have been considered. It has been shown that the power plant changes the pressure distribution on the aircraft surface. It results in essential diminishing the configuration lift-drag ratio.

Are outcomes reported in surgical randomized trials patient-important? A systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Adie, Sam; Harris, Ian A.; Naylor, Justine M.; Mittal, Rajat

2017-01-01

Background The dangers of using surrogate outcomes are well documented. They may have little or no association with their patient-important correlates, leading to the approval and use of interventions that lack efficacy. We sought to assess whether primary outcomes in surgical randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are more likely to be patient-important outcomes than surrogate or laboratory-based outcomes. Methods We reviewed RCTs assessing an operative intervention published in 2008 and 2009 and indexed in MEDLINE, EMBASE or the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. After a pilot of the selection criteria, 1 reviewer selected trials and another reviewer checked the selection. We extracted information on outcome characteristics (patient-important, surrogate, or laboratory-based outcome) and whether they were primary or secondary outcomes. We calculated odds ratios (OR) and pooled in random-effects meta-analysis to obtain an overall estimate of the association between patient importance and primary outcome specification. Results In 350 included RCTs, a total of 8258 outcomes were reported (median 18 per trial. The mean proportion (per trial) of patient-important outcomes was 60%, and 66% of trials specified a patient-important primary outcome. The most commonly reported patient-important primary outcomes were morbid events (41%), intervention outcomes (11%), function (11%) and pain (9%). Surrogate and laboratory-based primary outcomes were reported in 33% and 8% of trials, respectively. Patient-important outcomes were not associated with primary outcome status (OR 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.63–1.1, I2 = 21%). Conclusion A substantial proportion of surgical RCTs specify primary outcomes that are not patient-important. Authors, journals and trial funders should insist that patient-important outcomes are the focus of study. PMID:28234219

Constructing Surrogate Models of Complex Systems with Enhanced Sparsity: Quantifying the Influence of Conformational Uncertainty in Biomolecular Solvation

DOE PAGES

Lei, Huan; Yang, Xiu; Zheng, Bin; ...

2015-11-05

Biomolecules exhibit conformational fluctuations near equilibrium states, inducing uncertainty in various biological properties in a dynamic way. We have developed a general method to quantify the uncertainty of target properties induced by conformational fluctuations. Using a generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion, we construct a surrogate model of the target property with respect to varying conformational states. We also propose a method to increase the sparsity of the gPC expansion by defining a set of conformational “active space” random variables. With the increased sparsity, we employ the compressive sensing method to accurately construct the surrogate model. We demonstrate the performance ofmore » the surrogate model by evaluating fluctuation-induced uncertainty in solvent-accessible surface area for the bovine trypsin inhibitor protein system and show that the new approach offers more accurate statistical information than standard Monte Carlo approaches. Further more, the constructed surrogate model also enables us to directly evaluate the target property under various conformational states, yielding a more accurate response surface than standard sparse grid collocation methods. In particular, the new method provides higher accuracy in high-dimensional systems, such as biomolecules, where sparse grid performance is limited by the accuracy of the computed quantity of interest. Finally, our new framework is generalizable and can be used to investigate the uncertainty of a wide variety of target properties in biomolecular systems.« less

A new proportion measure of the treatment effect captured by candidate surrogate endpoints.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Fumiaki; Kuroki, Manabu

2014-08-30

The use of surrogate endpoints is expected to play an important role in the development of new drugs, as they can be used to reduce the sample size and/or duration of randomized clinical trials. Biostatistical researchers and practitioners have proposed various surrogacy measures; however, (i) most of these surrogacy measures often fall outside the range [0,1] without any assumptions, (ii) these surrogacy measures do not provide a cut-off value for judging a surrogacy level of candidate surrogate endpoints, and (iii) most surrogacy measures are highly variable; thus, the confidence intervals are often unacceptably wide. In order to solve problems (i) and (ii), we propose a new surrogacy measure, a proportion of the treatment effect captured by candidate surrogate endpoints (PCS), on the basis of the decomposition of the treatment effect into parts captured and non-captured by the candidate surrogate endpoints. In order to solve problem (iii), we propose an estimation method based on the half-range mode method with the bootstrap distribution of the estimated surrogacy measures. Finally, through numerical experiments and two empirical examples, we show that the PCS with the proposed estimation method overcomes these difficulties. The results of this paper contribute to the reliable evaluation of how much of the treatment effect is captured by candidate surrogate endpoints. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Statistical Surrogate Modeling of Atmospheric Dispersion Events Using Bayesian Adaptive Splines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francom, D.; Sansó, B.; Bulaevskaya, V.; Lucas, D. D.

2016-12-01

Uncertainty in the inputs of complex computer models, including atmospheric dispersion and transport codes, is often assessed via statistical surrogate models. Surrogate models are computationally efficient statistical approximations of expensive computer models that enable uncertainty analysis. We introduce Bayesian adaptive spline methods for producing surrogate models that capture the major spatiotemporal patterns of the parent model, while satisfying all the necessities of flexibility, accuracy and computational feasibility. We present novel methodological and computational approaches motivated by a controlled atmospheric tracer release experiment conducted at the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant in California. Traditional methods for building statistical surrogate models often do not scale well to experiments with large amounts of data. Our approach is well suited to experiments involving large numbers of model inputs, large numbers of simulations, and functional output for each simulation. Our approach allows us to perform global sensitivity analysis with ease. We also present an approach to calibration of simulators using field data.

An investigation into the two-stage meta-analytic copula modelling approach for evaluating time-to-event surrogate endpoints which comprise of one or more events of interest.

PubMed

Dimier, Natalie; Todd, Susan

2017-09-01

Clinical trials of experimental treatments must be designed with primary endpoints that directly measure clinical benefit for patients. In many disease areas, the recognised gold standard primary endpoint can take many years to mature, leading to challenges in the conduct and quality of clinical studies. There is increasing interest in using shorter-term surrogate endpoints as substitutes for costly long-term clinical trial endpoints; such surrogates need to be selected according to biological plausibility, as well as the ability to reliably predict the unobserved treatment effect on the long-term endpoint. A number of statistical methods to evaluate this prediction have been proposed; this paper uses a simulation study to explore one such method in the context of time-to-event surrogates for a time-to-event true endpoint. This two-stage meta-analytic copula method has been extensively studied for time-to-event surrogate endpoints with one event of interest, but thus far has not been explored for the assessment of surrogates which have multiple events of interest, such as those incorporating information directly from the true clinical endpoint. We assess the sensitivity of the method to various factors including strength of association between endpoints, the quantity of data available, and the effect of censoring. In particular, we consider scenarios where there exist very little data on which to assess surrogacy. Results show that the two-stage meta-analytic copula method performs well under certain circumstances and could be considered useful in practice, but demonstrates limitations that may prevent universal use. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An efficient surrogate-based simulation-optimization method for calibrating a regional MODFLOW model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Mingjie; Izady, Azizallah; Abdalla, Osman A.

2017-01-01

Simulation-optimization method entails a large number of model simulations, which is computationally intensive or even prohibitive if the model simulation is extremely time-consuming. Statistical models have been examined as a surrogate of the high-fidelity physical model during simulation-optimization process to tackle this problem. Among them, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), a non-parametric adaptive regression method, is superior in overcoming problems of high-dimensions and discontinuities of the data. Furthermore, the stability and accuracy of MARS model can be improved by bootstrap aggregating methods, namely, bagging. In this paper, Bagging MARS (BMARS) method is integrated to a surrogate-based simulation-optimization framework to calibrate a three-dimensional MODFLOW model, which is developed to simulate the groundwater flow in an arid hardrock-alluvium region in northwestern Oman. The physical MODFLOW model is surrogated by the statistical model developed using BMARS algorithm. The surrogate model, which is fitted and validated using training dataset generated by the physical model, can approximate solutions rapidly. An efficient Sobol' method is employed to calculate global sensitivities of head outputs to input parameters, which are used to analyze their importance for the model outputs spatiotemporally. Only sensitive parameters are included in the calibration process to further improve the computational efficiency. Normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) between measured and simulated heads at observation wells is used as the objective function to be minimized during optimization. The reasonable history match between the simulated and observed heads demonstrated feasibility of this high-efficient calibration framework.

Surrogate-Based Optimization of Biogeochemical Transport Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prieß, Malte; Slawig, Thomas

2010-09-01

First approaches towards a surrogate-based optimization method for a one-dimensional marine biogeochemical model of NPZD type are presented. The model, developed by Oschlies and Garcon [1], simulates the distribution of nitrogen, phytoplankton, zooplankton and detritus in a water column and is driven by ocean circulation data. A key issue is to minimize the misfit between the model output and given observational data. Our aim is to reduce the overall optimization cost avoiding expensive function and derivative evaluations by using a surrogate model replacing the high-fidelity model in focus. This in particular becomes important for more complex three-dimensional models. We analyse a coarsening in the discretization of the model equations as one way to create such a surrogate. Here the numerical stability crucially depends upon the discrete stepsize in time and space and the biochemical terms. We show that for given model parameters the level of grid coarsening can be choosen accordingly yielding a stable and satisfactory surrogate. As one example of a surrogate-based optimization method we present results of the Aggressive Space Mapping technique (developed by John W. Bandler [2, 3]) applied to the optimization of this one-dimensional biogeochemical transport model.

Intensivist-reported Facilitators and Barriers to Discussing Post-Discharge Outcomes with Intensive Care Unit Surrogates. A Qualitative Study

PubMed Central

Davis, Wesley E.; Needham, Dale M.; White, Douglas B.; Eakin, Michelle N.

2016-01-01

Rationale: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients’ expected post-discharge outcomes are rarely discussed in family meetings despite this information being centrally important to patients and their families. Objectives: To characterize intensivist-identified barriers and facilitators to discussing post-discharge outcomes with surrogates of ICU patients. Methods: Qualitative study conducted via one-on-one, semistructured telephone interviews with 23 intensivists from 20 hospitals with accreditation council for graduate medical education–accredited critical care medicine programs in 16 states. A limited application of grounded theory methods was used to code transcribed interviews and identify themes and illustrative quotes. Measurements and Main Results: Intensivists reported tension between their professional responsibility to discuss likely functional outcomes versus uncertainty about their ability to predict those outcomes for an individual patient. They cited three main barriers as limiting their ability to conduct conversations about post-discharge outcomes with ICU surrogates: (1) incorrectly optimistic expectations for recovery among ICU surrogates, (2) having little or no contact with their patients after ICU discharge, and (3) minimal confidence applying existing outcomes research to individual patients. Despite these barriers, experience talking to ICU surrogates, seeing ICU survivors in the outpatient setting, and trusted research on functional outcomes were identified as important facilitators to discussing likely patient outcomes with surrogates. Intensivists generally welcomed questions from surrogates about post-discharge outcomes as opportunities to initiate conversations about prognosis and patient values. Conclusions: In this sample of intensivists from 20 academic hospitals, experience conducting conversations with surrogates and interactions with ICU survivors as outpatients were identified as facilitating discussion of expected post-discharge outcomes while optimistic surrogate expectations and prognostic uncertainty were barriers. There was tension between self-perceived ability to prognosticate and belief in a professional obligation to discuss patient outcomes. PMID:27294981

A simple analytical procedure to replace HPLC for monitoring treatment concentrations of chloramine-T on fish culture facilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dawson, V.K.; Meinertz, J.R.; Schmidt, L.J.; Gingerich, W.H.

2003-01-01

Concentrations of chloramine-T must be monitored during experimental treatments of fish when studying the effectiveness of the drug for controlling bacterial gill disease. A surrogate analytical method for analysis of chloramine-T to replace the existing high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method is described. A surrogate method was needed because the existing HPLC method is expensive, requires a specialist to use, and is not generally available at fish hatcheries. Criteria for selection of a replacement method included ease of use, analysis time, cost, safety, sensitivity, accuracy, and precision. The most promising approach was to use the determination of chlorine concentrations as an indicator of chloramine-T. Of the currently available methods for analysis of chlorine, the DPD (N,N-diethyl-p-phenylenediamine) colorimetric method best fit the established criteria. The surrogate method was evaluated under a variety of water quality conditions. Regression analysis of all DPD colorimetric analyses with the HPLC values produced a linear model (Y=0.9602 X+0.1259) with an r2 value of 0.9960. The average accuracy (percent recovery) of the DPD method relative to the HPLC method for the combined set of water quality data was 101.5%. The surrogate method was also evaluated with chloramine-T solutions that contained various concentrations of fish feed or selected densities of rainbow trout. When samples were analyzed within 2 h, the results of the surrogate method were consistent with those of the HPLC method. When samples with high concentrations of organic material were allowed to age more than 2 h before being analyzed, the DPD method seemed to be susceptible to interference, possibly from the development of other chloramine compounds. However, even after aging samples 6 h, the accuracy of the surrogate DPD method relative to the HPLC method was within the range of 80-120%. Based on the data comparing the two methods, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has concluded that the DPD colorimetric method is appropriate to use to measure chloramine-T in water during pivotal efficacy trials designed to support the approval of chloramine-T for use in fish culture. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Incorporating approximation error in surrogate based Bayesian inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Zeng, L.; Li, W.; Wu, L.

2015-12-01

There are increasing interests in applying surrogates for inverse Bayesian modeling to reduce repetitive evaluations of original model. In this way, the computational cost is expected to be saved. However, the approximation error of surrogate model is usually overlooked. This is partly because that it is difficult to evaluate the approximation error for many surrogates. Previous studies have shown that, the direct combination of surrogates and Bayesian methods (e.g., Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC) may lead to biased estimations when the surrogate cannot emulate the highly nonlinear original system. This problem can be alleviated by implementing MCMC in a two-stage manner. However, the computational cost is still high since a relatively large number of original model simulations are required. In this study, we illustrate the importance of incorporating approximation error in inverse Bayesian modeling. Gaussian process (GP) is chosen to construct the surrogate for its convenience in approximation error evaluation. Numerical cases of Bayesian experimental design and parameter estimation for contaminant source identification are used to illustrate this idea. It is shown that, once the surrogate approximation error is well incorporated into Bayesian framework, promising results can be obtained even when the surrogate is directly used, and no further original model simulations are required.

Surrogate outcomes in health technology assessment: an international comparison.

PubMed

Velasco Garrido, Marcial; Mangiapane, Sandra

2009-07-01

Our aim was to review the recommendations given by health technology assessment (HTA) institutions in their methodological guidelines concerning the use of surrogate outcomes in their assessments. In a second step, we aimed at quantifying the role surrogate parameters take in assessment reports. We analyzed methodological papers and guidelines from HTA agencies with International Network of Agencies for Health Technology Assessment membership as well as from institutions related to pharmaceutical regulation (i.e., reimbursement, pricing). We analyzed the use of surrogate outcomes in a sample of HTA reports randomly drawn from the HTA database. We checked methods, results (including evidence tables), and conclusions sections and extracted the outcomes reported. We report descriptive statistics on the presence of surrogate outcomes in the reports. We identified thirty-four methodological guidelines, twenty of them addressing the issue of outcome parameter choice and the problematic of surrogate outcomes. Overall HTA agencies call on caution regarding the reliance on surrogate outcomes. None of the agencies has provided a list or catalog of acceptable and validated surrogate outcomes. We extracted the outcome parameter of 140 HTA reports. Only around half of the reports determined the outcomes for the assessment prospectively. Surrogate outcomes had been used in 62 percent of the reports. However, only 3.6 percent were based upon surrogate outcomes exclusively. All of them assessed diagnostic or screening technologies and the surrogate outcomes were predominantly test characteristics. HTA institutions seem to agree on a cautious approach to the use of surrogate outcomes in technology assessment. Thorough assessment of health technologies should not rely exclusively on surrogate outcomes.

A Taylor Expansion-Based Adaptive Design Strategy for Global Surrogate Modeling With Applications in Groundwater Modeling

DOE PAGES

Mo, Shaoxing; Lu, Dan; Shi, Xiaoqing; ...

2017-12-27

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) for groundwater modeling are challenging because of the model complexity and significant computational requirements. To reduce the massive computational cost, a cheap-to-evaluate surrogate model is usually constructed to approximate and replace the expensive groundwater models in the GSA and UQ. Constructing an accurate surrogate requires actual model simulations on a number of parameter samples. Thus, a robust experimental design strategy is desired to locate informative samples so as to reduce the computational cost in surrogate construction and consequently to improve the efficiency in the GSA and UQ. In this study, we developmore » a Taylor expansion-based adaptive design (TEAD) that aims to build an accurate global surrogate model with a small training sample size. TEAD defines a novel hybrid score function to search informative samples, and a robust stopping criterion to terminate the sample search that guarantees the resulted approximation errors satisfy the desired accuracy. The good performance of TEAD in building global surrogate models is demonstrated in seven analytical functions with different dimensionality and complexity in comparison to two widely used experimental design methods. The application of the TEAD-based surrogate method in two groundwater models shows that the TEAD design can effectively improve the computational efficiency of GSA and UQ for groundwater modeling.« less

A Taylor Expansion-Based Adaptive Design Strategy for Global Surrogate Modeling With Applications in Groundwater Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mo, Shaoxing; Lu, Dan; Shi, Xiaoqing

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) for groundwater modeling are challenging because of the model complexity and significant computational requirements. To reduce the massive computational cost, a cheap-to-evaluate surrogate model is usually constructed to approximate and replace the expensive groundwater models in the GSA and UQ. Constructing an accurate surrogate requires actual model simulations on a number of parameter samples. Thus, a robust experimental design strategy is desired to locate informative samples so as to reduce the computational cost in surrogate construction and consequently to improve the efficiency in the GSA and UQ. In this study, we developmore » a Taylor expansion-based adaptive design (TEAD) that aims to build an accurate global surrogate model with a small training sample size. TEAD defines a novel hybrid score function to search informative samples, and a robust stopping criterion to terminate the sample search that guarantees the resulted approximation errors satisfy the desired accuracy. The good performance of TEAD in building global surrogate models is demonstrated in seven analytical functions with different dimensionality and complexity in comparison to two widely used experimental design methods. The application of the TEAD-based surrogate method in two groundwater models shows that the TEAD design can effectively improve the computational efficiency of GSA and UQ for groundwater modeling.« less

An Efficient Variable Screening Method for Effective Surrogate Models for Reliability-Based Design Optimization

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-04-01

surrogate model generation is difficult for high -dimensional problems, due to the curse of dimensionality. Variable screening methods have been...a variable screening model was developed for the quasi-molecular treatment of ion-atom collision [16]. In engineering, a confidence interval of...for high -level radioactive waste [18]. Moreover, the design sensitivity method can be extended to the variable screening method because vital

Investigating conflict in ICUs - Is the clinicians’ perspective enough?

PubMed Central

Schuster, Rachel A.; Hong, Seo Yeon; Arnold, Robert M.; White, Douglas B.

2013-01-01

Objective Most studies have assessed conflict between clinicians and surrogate decision makers in ICUs from only clinicians’ perspectives. It is unknown if surrogates’ perceptions differ from clinicians’. We sought to determine the degree of agreement between physicians and surrogates about conflict, and to identify predictors of physician-surrogate conflict. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Four ICUs of two hospitals in San Francisco, California. Patients 230 surrogate decision makers and 100 physicians of 175 critically ill patients. Measurements Questionnaires addressing participants’ perceptions of whether there was physician-surrogate conflict, as well as attitudes and preferences about clinician-surrogate communication; kappa scores to quantify physician-surrogate concordance about the presence of conflict; and hierarchical multivariate modeling to determine predictors of conflict. Main Results Either the physician or surrogate identified conflict in 63% of cases. Physicians were less likely to perceive conflict than surrogates (27.8% vs 42.3%; p=0.007). Agreement between physicians and surrogates about conflict was poor (kappa = 0.14). Multivariable analysis with surrogate-assessed conflict as the outcome revealed that higher levels of surrogates’ satisfaction with physicians’ bedside manner were associated with lower odds of conflict (OR: 0.75 per 1 point increase in satisfaction, 95% CI 0.59–0.96). Multivariable analysis with physician-assessed conflict as the outcome revealed that the surrogate having felt discriminated against in the healthcare setting was associated with higher odds of conflict (OR 17.5, 95% CI 1.6–190.1) while surrogates’ satisfaction with physicians’ bedside manner was associated with lower odds of conflict (0–10 scale, OR 0.76 per 1 point increase, 95% CI 0.58–0.99). Conclusions Conflict between physicians and surrogates is common in ICUs. There is little agreement between physicians and surrogates about whether physician-surrogate conflict has occurred. Further work is needed to develop reliable and valid methods to assess conflict. In the interim, future studies should assess conflict from the perspective of both clinicians and surrogates. PMID:24434440

Evaluating Candidate Principal Surrogate Endpoints

PubMed Central

Gilbert, Peter B.; Hudgens, Michael G.

2009-01-01

Summary Frangakis and Rubin (2002, Biometrics 58, 21–29) proposed a new definition of a surrogate endpoint (a “principal” surrogate) based on causal effects. We introduce an estimand for evaluating a principal surrogate, the causal effect predictiveness (CEP) surface, which quantifies how well causal treatment effects on the biomarker predict causal treatment effects on the clinical endpoint. Although the CEP surface is not identifiable due to missing potential outcomes, it can be identified by incorporating a baseline covariate(s) that predicts the biomarker. Given case–cohort sampling of such a baseline predictor and the biomarker in a large blinded randomized clinical trial, we develop an estimated likelihood method for estimating the CEP surface. This estimation assesses the “surrogate value” of the biomarker for reliably predicting clinical treatment effects for the same or similar setting as the trial. A CEP surface plot provides a way to compare the surrogate value of multiple biomarkers. The approach is illustrated by the problem of assessing an immune response to a vaccine as a surrogate endpoint for infection. PMID:18363776

The oral disposition index is a strong predictor of incident diabetes in Asian Indian prediabetic men.

PubMed

Ram, Jagannathan; Snehalatha, Chamukuttan; Selvam, Sundaram; Nanditha, Arun; Shetty, Ananth Samith; Godsland, Ian F; Johnston, Desmond G; Ramachandran, Ambady

2015-08-01

In this analysis, we sought to examine the prospective association of the disposition index (DIo) derived from oral glucose tolerance test with incident diabetes in Asian Indian men with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). These post hoc analyses used data from a 2-year prospective study in primary prevention of diabetes using lifestyle intervention among 517 men with IGT. All the participants received standard lifestyle advice at baseline. The surrogate insulin sensitivity and insulin secretion measures were tested for their hyperbolic relationship. Predictive associations of various surrogate measures with incident diabetes were determined using receiver operating characteristic curves. The combination of total area under the curve of insulin-to-glucose ratio (AUCinsulin/glucose) and Matsuda's insulin sensitivity index was the best equation to depict DIo [β: -0.954 (95 % CI -1.015 to -0.893)] compared to other measures tested in this cohort. There was an inverse association between change in DIo at the final follow-up and development of incident diabetes. Among the surrogate insulin measures studied, DIo [AUC (0.717 (95 % CI 0.675-0.756))] as a composite measure was superior than other surrogate indices. Among the surrogate indices studied, DIo was the best measure associated with incident diabetes.

Real-time characterization of partially observed epidemics using surrogate models.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Safta, Cosmin; Ray, Jaideep; Lefantzi, Sophia

We present a statistical method, predicated on the use of surrogate models, for the 'real-time' characterization of partially observed epidemics. Observations consist of counts of symptomatic patients, diagnosed with the disease, that may be available in the early epoch of an ongoing outbreak. Characterization, in this context, refers to estimation of epidemiological parameters that can be used to provide short-term forecasts of the ongoing epidemic, as well as to provide gross information on the dynamics of the etiologic agent in the affected population e.g., the time-dependent infection rate. The characterization problem is formulated as a Bayesian inverse problem, and epidemiologicalmore » parameters are estimated as distributions using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimates. In some cases, the inverse problem can be computationally expensive, primarily due to the epidemic simulator used inside the inversion algorithm. We present a method, based on replacing the epidemiological model with computationally inexpensive surrogates, that can reduce the computational time to minutes, without a significant loss of accuracy. The surrogates are created by projecting the output of an epidemiological model on a set of polynomial chaos bases; thereafter, computations involving the surrogate model reduce to evaluations of a polynomial. We find that the epidemic characterizations obtained with the surrogate models is very close to that obtained with the original model. We also find that the number of projections required to construct a surrogate model is O(10)-O(10{sup 2}) less than the number of samples required by the MCMC to construct a stationary posterior distribution; thus, depending upon the epidemiological models in question, it may be possible to omit the offline creation and caching of surrogate models, prior to their use in an inverse problem. The technique is demonstrated on synthetic data as well as observations from the 1918 influenza pandemic collected at Camp Custer, Michigan.« less

Validation of surrogate endpoints in advanced solid tumors: systematic review of statistical methods, results, and implications for policy makers.

PubMed

Ciani, Oriana; Davis, Sarah; Tappenden, Paul; Garside, Ruth; Stein, Ken; Cantrell, Anna; Saad, Everardo D; Buyse, Marc; Taylor, Rod S

2014-07-01

Licensing of, and coverage decisions on, new therapies should rely on evidence from patient-relevant endpoints such as overall survival (OS). Nevertheless, evidence from surrogate endpoints may also be useful, as it may not only expedite the regulatory approval of new therapies but also inform coverage decisions. It is, therefore, essential that candidate surrogate endpoints be properly validated. However, there is no consensus on statistical methods for such validation and on how the evidence thus derived should be applied by policy makers. We review current statistical approaches to surrogate-endpoint validation based on meta-analysis in various advanced-tumor settings. We assessed the suitability of two surrogates (progression-free survival [PFS] and time-to-progression [TTP]) using three current validation frameworks: Elston and Taylor's framework, the German Institute of Quality and Efficiency in Health Care's (IQWiG) framework and the Biomarker-Surrogacy Evaluation Schema (BSES3). A wide variety of statistical methods have been used to assess surrogacy. The strength of the association between the two surrogates and OS was generally low. The level of evidence (observation-level versus treatment-level) available varied considerably by cancer type, by evaluation tools and was not always consistent even within one specific cancer type. Not in all solid tumors the treatment-level association between PFS or TTP and OS has been investigated. According to IQWiG's framework, only PFS achieved acceptable evidence of surrogacy in metastatic colorectal and ovarian cancer treated with cytotoxic agents. Our study emphasizes the challenges of surrogate-endpoint validation and the importance of building consensus on the development of evaluation frameworks.

Surrogate Model Application to the Identification of Optimal Groundwater Exploitation Scheme Based on Regression Kriging Method—A Case Study of Western Jilin Province

PubMed Central

An, Yongkai; Lu, Wenxi; Cheng, Weiguo

2015-01-01

This paper introduces a surrogate model to identify an optimal exploitation scheme, while the western Jilin province was selected as the study area. A numerical simulation model of groundwater flow was established first, and four exploitation wells were set in the Tongyu county and Qian Gorlos county respectively so as to supply water to Daan county. Second, the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method was used to collect data in the feasible region for input variables. A surrogate model of the numerical simulation model of groundwater flow was developed using the regression kriging method. An optimization model was established to search an optimal groundwater exploitation scheme using the minimum average drawdown of groundwater table and the minimum cost of groundwater exploitation as multi-objective functions. Finally, the surrogate model was invoked by the optimization model in the process of solving the optimization problem. Results show that the relative error and root mean square error of the groundwater table drawdown between the simulation model and the surrogate model for 10 validation samples are both lower than 5%, which is a high approximation accuracy. The contrast between the surrogate-based simulation optimization model and the conventional simulation optimization model for solving the same optimization problem, shows the former only needs 5.5 hours, and the latter needs 25 days. The above results indicate that the surrogate model developed in this study could not only considerably reduce the computational burden of the simulation optimization process, but also maintain high computational accuracy. This can thus provide an effective method for identifying an optimal groundwater exploitation scheme quickly and accurately. PMID:26264008

Estimating the strength of bone using linear response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunaratne, Gemunu H.

2002-12-01

Accurate diagnostic tools are required for effective management of osteoporosis; one method to identify additional diagnostics is to search for observable consequences of bone loss. An analysis of a model system is used to show that weakening of a bone is accompanied by a reduction of the fraction of the bone that participates in load transmission. On the basis of this observation, it is argued that the ratio Γ of linear responses of a network to dc and high-frequency ac driving can be used as a surrogate for their strength. Protocols needed to obtain Γ for bone samples are discussed.

CTEPP STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE FOR PREPARATION OF SURROGATE RECOVERY STANDARD AND INTERNAL STANDARD SOLUTIONS FOR POLAR TARGET ANALYTES (SOP-5.26)

EPA Science Inventory

This SOP describes the method used for preparing surrogate recovery standard and internal standard solutions for the analysis of polar target analytes. It also describes the method for preparing calibration standard solutions for polar analytes used for gas chromatography/mass sp...

An alternative method for cDNA cloning from surrogate eukaryotic cells transfected with the corresponding genomic DNA.

PubMed

Hu, Lin-Yong; Cui, Chen-Chen; Song, Yu-Jie; Wang, Xiang-Guo; Jin, Ya-Ping; Wang, Ai-Hua; Zhang, Yong

2012-07-01

cDNA is widely used in gene function elucidation and/or transgenics research but often suitable tissues or cells from which to isolate mRNA for reverse transcription are unavailable. Here, an alternative method for cDNA cloning is described and tested by cloning the cDNA of human LALBA (human alpha-lactalbumin) from genomic DNA. First, genomic DNA containing all of the coding exons was cloned from human peripheral blood and inserted into a eukaryotic expression vector. Next, by delivering the plasmids into either 293T or fibroblast cells, surrogate cells were constructed. Finally, the total RNA was extracted from the surrogate cells and cDNA was obtained by RT-PCR. The human LALBA cDNA that was obtained was compared with the corresponding mRNA published in GenBank. The comparison showed that the two sequences were identical. The novel method for cDNA cloning from surrogate eukaryotic cells described here uses well-established techniques that are feasible and simple to use. We anticipate that this alternative method will have widespread applications.

Comparative evaluation of SUV, tumor-to-blood standard uptake ratio (SUR), and dual time point measurements for assessment of the metabolic uptake rate in FDG PET.

PubMed

Hofheinz, Frank; Hoff, Jörg van den; Steffen, Ingo G; Lougovski, Alexandr; Ego, Kilian; Amthauer, Holger; Apostolova, Ivayla

2016-12-01

We have demonstrated recently that the tumor-to-blood standard uptake ratio (SUR) is superior to tumor standardized uptake value (SUV) as a surrogate of the metabolic uptake rate K m of fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG), overcoming several of the known shortcomings of the SUV approach: excellent linear correlation of SUR and K m from Patlak analysis was found using dynamic imaging of liver metastases. However, due to the perfectly standardized uptake period used for SUR determination and the comparatively short uptake period, these results are not automatically valid and applicable for clinical whole-body examinations in which the uptake periods (T) are distinctly longer and can vary considerably. Therefore, the aim of this work was to investigate the correlation between SUR derived from clinical static whole-body scans and K m-surrogate derived from dual time point (DTP) measurements. DTP (18)F-FDG PET/CT was performed in 90 consecutive patients with histologically proven non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In the PET images, the primary tumor was delineated with an adaptive threshold method. For determination of the blood SUV, an aorta region of interest (ROI) was delineated manually in the attenuation CT and transferred to the PET image. Blood SUV was computed as the mean value of the aorta ROI. SUR values were computed as ratio of tumor SUV and blood SUV. SUR values from the early time point of each DTP measurement were scan time corrected to 75 min postinjection (SURtc). As surrogate of K m, we used the SUR(T) slope, K slope, derived from DTP measurements since it is proportional to the latter under the given circumstances. The correlation of SUV and SURtc with K slope was investigated. The prognostic value of SUV, SURtc, and K slope for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) was investigated with univariate Cox regression in a homogeneous subgroup (N=31) treated with primary chemoradiation. Correlation analysis revealed for both, SUV and SURtc, a clear linear correlation with K slope (P<0.001). Correlation SUR vs. K slope was considerably stronger than correlation SUV vs. K slope (R (2)=0.92 and R (2)=0.69, respectively, P<0.001). Univariate Cox regression revealed SURtc and K slope as significant prognostic factors for PFS (hazard ratio (HR) =3.4/ P=0.017 and HR =4.3/ P=0.020, respectively). For SUV, no significant effect was found. None of the investigated parameters was prognostic for OS. Scan-time-corrected SUR is a significantly better surrogate of tumor FDG metabolism in clinical whole-body PET compared to SUV. The very high linear correlation of SUR and DTP-derived K slope (which is proportional to actual K m) implies that for histologically proven malignant lesions, FDG-DTP does not provide added value in comparison to the SUR approach in NSCLC.

Testing Pairwise Association between Spatially Autocorrelated Variables: A New Approach Using Surrogate Lattice Data

PubMed Central

Deblauwe, Vincent; Kennel, Pol; Couteron, Pierre

2012-01-01

Background Independence between observations is a standard prerequisite of traditional statistical tests of association. This condition is, however, violated when autocorrelation is present within the data. In the case of variables that are regularly sampled in space (i.e. lattice data or images), such as those provided by remote-sensing or geographical databases, this problem is particularly acute. Because analytic derivation of the null probability distribution of the test statistic (e.g. Pearson's r) is not always possible when autocorrelation is present, we propose instead the use of a Monte Carlo simulation with surrogate data. Methodology/Principal Findings The null hypothesis that two observed mapped variables are the result of independent pattern generating processes is tested here by generating sets of random image data while preserving the autocorrelation function of the original images. Surrogates are generated by matching the dual-tree complex wavelet spectra (and hence the autocorrelation functions) of white noise images with the spectra of the original images. The generated images can then be used to build the probability distribution function of any statistic of association under the null hypothesis. We demonstrate the validity of a statistical test of association based on these surrogates with both actual and synthetic data and compare it with a corrected parametric test and three existing methods that generate surrogates (randomization, random rotations and shifts, and iterative amplitude adjusted Fourier transform). Type I error control was excellent, even with strong and long-range autocorrelation, which is not the case for alternative methods. Conclusions/Significance The wavelet-based surrogates are particularly appropriate in cases where autocorrelation appears at all scales or is direction-dependent (anisotropy). We explore the potential of the method for association tests involving a lattice of binary data and discuss its potential for validation of species distribution models. An implementation of the method in Java for the generation of wavelet-based surrogates is available online as supporting material. PMID:23144961

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zawisza, I; Yan, H; Yin, F

Purpose: To assure that tumor motion is within the radiation field during high-dose and high-precision radiosurgery, real-time imaging and surrogate monitoring are employed. These methods are useful in providing real-time tumor/surrogate motion but no future information is available. In order to anticipate future tumor/surrogate motion and track target location precisely, an algorithm is developed and investigated for estimating surrogate motion multiple-steps ahead. Methods: The study utilized a one-dimensional surrogate motion signal divided into three components: (a) training component containing the primary data including the first frame to the beginning of the input subsequence; (b) input subsequence component of the surrogatemore » signal used as input to the prediction algorithm: (c) output subsequence component is the remaining signal used as the known output of the prediction algorithm for validation. The prediction algorithm consists of three major steps: (1) extracting subsequences from training component which best-match the input subsequence according to given criterion; (2) calculating weighting factors from these best-matched subsequence; (3) collecting the proceeding parts of the subsequences and combining them together with assigned weighting factors to form output. The prediction algorithm was examined for several patients, and its performance is assessed based on the correlation between prediction and known output. Results: Respiratory motion data was collected for 20 patients using the RPM system. The output subsequence is the last 50 samples (∼2 seconds) of a surrogate signal, and the input subsequence was 100 (∼3 seconds) frames prior to the output subsequence. Based on the analysis of correlation coefficient between predicted and known output subsequence, the average correlation is 0.9644±0.0394 and 0.9789±0.0239 for equal-weighting and relative-weighting strategies, respectively. Conclusion: Preliminary results indicate that the prediction algorithm is effective in estimating surrogate motion multiple-steps in advance. Relative-weighting method shows better prediction accuracy than equal-weighting method. More parameters of this algorithm are under investigation.« less

Generation of Comprehensive Surrogate Kinetic Models and Validation Databases for Simulating Large Molecular Weight Hydrocarbon Fuels

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-25

of hydrogen/ carbon molar ratio (H/C), derived cetane number (DCN), threshold sooting index (TSI), and average mean molecular weight (MWave) of...diffusive soot extinction configurations. Matching the “real fuel combustion property targets” of hydrogen/ carbon molar ratio (H/C), derived cetane number...combustion property targets - hydrogen/ carbon molar ratio (H/C), derived cetane number (DCN), threshold sooting index (TSI), and average mean

Estimation of suspended sediment flux in streams using continuous turbidity and flow data coupled with laboratory concentrations

Treesearch

Jack Lewis

2002-01-01

The widening use of sediment surrogate measurements such as turbidity necessitates consideration of new methods for estimating sediment flux. Generally, existing methods can be simply be used in new ways. The effectiveness of a method varies according to the quality of the surrogate data and its relation to suspended sediment concentration (SSC). For this discussion,...

Model-assisted probability of detection of flaws in aluminum blocks using polynomial chaos expansions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Xiaosong; Leifsson, Leifur; Grandin, Robert; Meeker, William; Roberts, Ronald; Song, Jiming

2018-04-01

Probability of detection (POD) is widely used for measuring reliability of nondestructive testing (NDT) systems. Typically, POD is determined experimentally, while it can be enhanced by utilizing physics-based computational models in combination with model-assisted POD (MAPOD) methods. With the development of advanced physics-based methods, such as ultrasonic NDT testing, the empirical information, needed for POD methods, can be reduced. However, performing accurate numerical simulations can be prohibitively time-consuming, especially as part of stochastic analysis. In this work, stochastic surrogate models for computational physics-based measurement simulations are developed for cost savings of MAPOD methods while simultaneously ensuring sufficient accuracy. The stochastic surrogate is used to propagate the random input variables through the physics-based simulation model to obtain the joint probability distribution of the output. The POD curves are then generated based on those results. Here, the stochastic surrogates are constructed using non-intrusive polynomial chaos (NIPC) expansions. In particular, the NIPC methods used are the quadrature, ordinary least-squares (OLS), and least-angle regression sparse (LARS) techniques. The proposed approach is demonstrated on the ultrasonic testing simulation of a flat bottom hole flaw in an aluminum block. The results show that the stochastic surrogates have at least two orders of magnitude faster convergence on the statistics than direct Monte Carlo sampling (MCS). Moreover, the evaluation of the stochastic surrogate models is over three orders of magnitude faster than the underlying simulation model for this case, which is the UTSim2 model.

Is prostate-specific antigen a valid surrogate end point for survival in hormonally treated patients with metastatic prostate cancer? Joint research of the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer, the Limburgs Universitair Centrum, and AstraZeneca Pharmaceuticals.

PubMed

Collette, Laurence; Burzykowski, Tomasz; Carroll, Kevin J; Newling, Don; Morris, Tom; Schröder, Fritz H

2005-09-01

The long duration of phase III clinical trials of overall survival (OS) slows down the treatment-development process. It could be shortened by using surrogate end points. Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) is the most studied biomarker in prostate cancer (PCa). This study attempts to validate PSA end points as surrogates for OS in advanced PCa. Individual data from 2,161 advanced PCa patients treated in studies comparing bicalutamide to castration were used in a meta-analytic approach to surrogate end-point validation. PSA response, PSA normalization, time to PSA progression, and longitudinal PSA measurements were considered. The known association between PSA and OS at the individual patient level was confirmed. The association between the effect of intervention on any PSA end point and on OS was generally low (determination coefficient, < 0.69). It is a common misconception that high correlation between biomarkers and true end point justify the use of the former as surrogates. To statistically validate surrogate end points, a high correlation between the treatment effects on the surrogate and true end point needs to be established across groups of patients treated with two alternative interventions. The levels of association observed in this study indicate that the effect of hormonal treatment on OS cannot be predicted with a high degree of precision from observed treatment effects on PSA end points, and thus statistical validity is unproven. In practice, non-null treatment effects on OS can be predicted only from precisely estimated large effects on time to PSA progression (TTPP; hazard ratio, < 0.50).

Assessment of the efficacy of membrane filtration processes to remove human enteric viruses and the suitability of bacteriophages and a plant virus as surrogates for those viruses.

PubMed

Shirasaki, N; Matsushita, T; Matsui, Y; Murai, K

2017-05-15

Here, we evaluated the efficacy of direct microfiltration (MF) and ultrafiltration (UF) to remove three representative human enteric viruses (i.e., adenovirus [AdV] type 40, coxsackievirus [CV] B5, and hepatitis A virus [HAV] IB), and one surrogate of human caliciviruses (i.e., murine norovirus [MNV] type 1). Eight different MF membranes and three different UF membranes were used. We also examined the ability of coagulation pretreatment with high-basicity polyaluminum chloride (PACl) to enhance virus removal by MF. The removal ratios of two bacteriophages (MS2 and φX174) and a plant virus (pepper mild mottle virus; PMMoV) were compared with the removal ratios of the human enteric viruses to assess the suitability of these viruses to be used as surrogates for human enteric viruses. The virus removal ratios obtained with direct MF with membranes with nominal pore sizes of 0.1-0.22 μm differed, depending on the membrane used; adsorptive interactions, particularly hydrophobic interactions between virus particles and the membrane surface, were dominant factors for virus removal. In contrast, direct UF with membranes with nominal molecular weight cutoffs of 1-100 kDa effectively removed viruses through size exclusion, and >4-log 10 removal was achieved when a membrane with a nominal molecular weight cutoff of 1 kDa was used. At pH 7 and 8, in-line coagulation-MF with nonsulfated high-basicity PACls containing Al 30 species had generally a better virus removal (i.e., >4-log 10 virus removal) than the other aluminum-based coagulants, except for φX174. For all of the filtration processes, the removal ratios of AdV, CV, HAV, and MNV were comparable and strongly correlated with each other. The removal ratios of MS2 and PMMoV were comparable or smaller than those of the three human enteric viruses and MNV, and were strongly correlated with those of the three human enteric viruses and MNV. The removal ratios obtained with coagulation-MF for φX174 were markedly smaller than those obtained for the three human enteric viruses and MNV. However, because MS2 was inactivated after contact with PACl during coagulation pretreatment, unlike AdV, CV, MNV, and PMMoV, the removal ratios of infectious MS2 were probably an overestimation of the ability of coagulation-MF to remove infectious AdV, CV, and caliciviruses. Thus, PMMoV appears to be a suitable surrogate for human enteric viruses, whereas MS2 and φX174 do not, for the assessment of the efficacy of membrane filtration processes to remove viruses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

QconCATs: design and expression of concatenated protein standards for multiplexed protein quantification.

PubMed

Simpson, Deborah M; Beynon, Robert J

2012-09-01

Systems biology requires knowledge of the absolute amounts of proteins in order to model biological processes and simulate the effects of changes in specific model parameters. Quantification concatamers (QconCATs) are established as a method to provide multiplexed absolute peptide standards for a set of target proteins in isotope dilution standard experiments. Two or more quantotypic peptides representing each of the target proteins are concatenated into a designer gene that is metabolically labelled with stable isotopes in Escherichia coli or other cellular or cell-free systems. Co-digestion of a known amount of QconCAT with the target proteins generates a set of labelled reference peptide standards for the unlabelled analyte counterparts, and by using an appropriate mass spectrometry platform, comparison of the intensities of the peptide ratios delivers absolute quantification of the encoded peptides and in turn the target proteins for which they are surrogates. In this review, we discuss the criteria and difficulties associated with surrogate peptide selection and provide examples in the design of QconCATs for quantification of the proteins of the nuclear factor κB pathway.

Surrogate markers for time-varying treatments and outcomes

PubMed Central

Hsu, Jesse Y; Kennedy, Edward H; Roy, Jason A; Stephens-Shields, Alisa J; Small, Dylan S; Joffe, Marshall M

2015-01-01

Background A surrogate marker is a variable commonly used in clinical trials to guide treatment decisions when the outcome of ultimate interest is not available. A good surrogate marker is one where the treatment effect on the surrogate is a strong predictor of the effect of treatment on the outcome. We review the situation when there is one treatment delivered at baseline, one surrogate measured at one later time point and one ultimate outcome of interest, and discuss new issues arising when variables are time-varying. Methods Most of the literature on surrogate markers has only considered simple settings with one treatment, one surrogate, and one outcome of interest at a fixed time point. However, more complicated time-varying settings are common in practice. In this paper, we describe the unique challenges in two settings, time-varying treatments and time-varying surrogates, while relating the ideas back to the causal-effects and causal-association paradigms. Conclusions In addition to discussing and extending popular notions of surrogacy to time-varying settings, we give examples illustrating that one can be misled by not taking into account time-varying information about the surrogate or treatment. We hope this paper has provided some motivation for future work on estimation and inference in such settings. PMID:25948621

Dual-model automatic detection of nerve-fibres in corneal confocal microscopy images.

PubMed

Dabbah, M A; Graham, J; Petropoulos, I; Tavakoli, M; Malik, R A

2010-01-01

Corneal Confocal Microscopy (CCM) imaging is a non-invasive surrogate of detecting, quantifying and monitoring diabetic peripheral neuropathy. This paper presents an automated method for detecting nerve-fibres from CCM images using a dual-model detection algorithm and compares the performance to well-established texture and feature detection methods. The algorithm comprises two separate models, one for the background and another for the foreground (nerve-fibres), which work interactively. Our evaluation shows significant improvement (p approximately 0) in both error rate and signal-to-noise ratio of this model over the competitor methods. The automatic method is also evaluated in comparison with manual ground truth analysis in assessing diabetic neuropathy on the basis of nerve-fibre length, and shows a strong correlation (r = 0.92). Both analyses significantly separate diabetic patients from control subjects (p approximately 0).

Biomarkers and Surrogate Endpoints in Drug Development: A European Regulatory View.

PubMed

Wickström, Kerstin; Moseley, Jane

2017-05-01

To give a European regulatory overview of the requirements on and the use of biomarkers or surrogate endpoints in the development of drugs for ocular disease. Definitions, methods to validate new markers, and circumstances where surrogate endpoints can be appropriate are summarized. The key endpoints that have been used in registration studies so far are based on visual acuity, signs, and symptoms, or on surrogate endpoints. In some ocular conditions, established outcome measures such as those based on visual acuity or visual field are not feasible (as with slowly progressing diseases), or lack relevance (e.g., when central visual acuity may be preserved even though the patient is legally blind owing to a severely restricted visual field, or vice versa). There are several ocular conditions for which there is an unmet medical need. In some of these conditions, surrogate endpoints as well as new clinical endpoints are needed to help speed up patient access to new medicines. Interaction with European regulators through the pathway specific for the development of biomarkers or novel methods is encouraged.

Surrogate based wind farm layout optimization using manifold mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaja Kamaludeen, Shaafi M.; van Zuijle, Alexander; Bijl, Hester

2016-09-01

High computational cost associated with the high fidelity wake models such as RANS or LES serves as a primary bottleneck to perform a direct high fidelity wind farm layout optimization (WFLO) using accurate CFD based wake models. Therefore, a surrogate based multi-fidelity WFLO methodology (SWFLO) is proposed. The surrogate model is built using an SBO method referred as manifold mapping (MM). As a verification, optimization of spacing between two staggered wind turbines was performed using the proposed surrogate based methodology and the performance was compared with that of direct optimization using high fidelity model. Significant reduction in computational cost was achieved using MM: a maximum computational cost reduction of 65%, while arriving at the same optima as that of direct high fidelity optimization. The similarity between the response of models, the number of mapping points and its position, highly influences the computational efficiency of the proposed method. As a proof of concept, realistic WFLO of a small 7-turbine wind farm is performed using the proposed surrogate based methodology. Two variants of Jensen wake model with different decay coefficients were used as the fine and coarse model. The proposed SWFLO method arrived at the same optima as that of the fine model with very less number of fine model simulations.

Surrogate Immiscible Liquid Solution Pairs with Refractive Indexes Matchable Over a Wide Range of Density and Viscosity Ratios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saksena, Rajat; Christensen, Kenneth T.; Pearlstein, Arne J.

2014-11-01

Use of laser diagnostics in liquid-liquid flows is limited by refractive index mismatch. This can be avoided using a surrogate pair of immiscible index-matched liquids, with density and viscosity ratios matching those of the original liquid pair. We demonstrate that a wide range of density and viscosity ratios is accessible using aqueous solutions of 1,2-propanediol and CsBr (for which index, density, and viscosity are available), and solutions of light and heavy silicone oils and 1-bromooctane (for which we measured the same properties at 119 compositions). For each liquid phase, polynomials in the composition variables were fitted to index and density and to the logarithm of kinematic viscosity, and the fits were used to determine accessible density and viscosity ratios for each matchable index. Index-matched solution pairs can be prepared with density and viscosity ratios equal to those for water-liquid CO2 at 0oC over a range of pressure, and for water-crude oil and water-trichloroethylene, each over a range of temperature. For representative index-matched solutions, equilibration changes index, density, and viscosity only slightly, and chemical analysis show that no component of either solution has significant interphase solubility. Partially supported by Intl. Inst. for Carbon-Neutral Energy Research.

NiMg/Ceria-Zirconia Cylindrical Pellet Catalysts for Tri-reforming of Surrogate Biogas

DOE PAGES

Zhao, Xianhui; Walker, Devin; Maiti, Debtanu; ...

2017-12-22

Cylindrical NiMg/Ce 0.6Zr 0.4O 2 pellet catalysts with two different sizes (large: radius = 1.59 mm; and small: radius = 0.75 mm) were produced by extrusion of powder catalysts. The small catalyst pellets had a higher specific surface area, pore volume, average pore size, radial crush strength, and resistance to breakage than the large ones. Tri-reforming tests with surrogate biogas were conducted at 3 bar and 882 °C, with the feed molar ratios of CH 4: CO 2: air fixed at 1.0: 0.7: 0.95 and the H 2O/CH 4 molar feed ratio (0.35 – 1.16) varied. The small catalyst pelletsmore » exhibited lower internal mass transfer resistance and higher coking resistance, compared to the large ones. CO 2 conversion decreased and H 2/CO molar ratio increased with the increase of H 2O/CH 4 molar feed ratio, which are consistent with the trends predicted by thermodynamic equilibrium calculations. Finally, the results indicate that the NiMg/Ce 0.6Zr 0.4O 2 catalyst pellets are promising for commercial scale applications.« less

[Ethical issues concerning surrogate assisted sex therapy].

PubMed

Aloni, Ronit; Heruti, Rafi J

2009-09-01

Sex therapy, by definition, is a couple therapy as well as behavioral therapy by origin. As such, practicing a series of exercises is an essential part of the therapy. Masters and Johnson, in their book "Human Sexual Inadequacy", wrote that "one cannot learn about sexuality in any practical way without actually experiencing intimate behavior with a partner". This ethical approach directed them to develop the therapeutic method of working with surrogate partners, as they thought all people are entitled to receive therapy, if they so wish, including people without partners. Surrogate is a form of mentoring; this is a one-on-one relationship that allows practicing classic behavioral methods such as gradual progress, breaking the task into small goals, onsite feedback, rehearsals, role-play, modifying the environment, etc. The content and the skills that are practiced are related to sexual dysfunction as well as social, couple and intimate skills. The lack of those critical skills prevents the clients from fulfilling their wish to develop social or intimate relationships in which they will be able to accomplish their sexuality. Ethical procedures should be strictly kept in order to protect the clients and the surrogates, in a three-way therapeutic team, working together to reach the goals of the therapy. During the therapy process a weekly meeting is held between the therapist and the client, between the therapist and the surrogate and, only then, between the surrogate and the client. At the end of the therapy process the relationship between the client and the surrogate is terminated, completely. In this article, the authors illuminate the complexity of this therapy process, as well as dealing with some of the ethical issues that are raised. The article also identifies types of patients who can benefit from surrogate therapy.

Surrogate modeling of deformable joint contact using artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Eskinazi, Ilan; Fregly, Benjamin J

2015-09-01

Deformable joint contact models can be used to estimate loading conditions for cartilage-cartilage, implant-implant, human-orthotic, and foot-ground interactions. However, contact evaluations are often so expensive computationally that they can be prohibitive for simulations or optimizations requiring thousands or even millions of contact evaluations. To overcome this limitation, we developed a novel surrogate contact modeling method based on artificial neural networks (ANNs). The method uses special sampling techniques to gather input-output data points from an original (slow) contact model in multiple domains of input space, where each domain represents a different physical situation likely to be encountered. For each contact force and torque output by the original contact model, a multi-layer feed-forward ANN is defined, trained, and incorporated into a surrogate contact model. As an evaluation problem, we created an ANN-based surrogate contact model of an artificial tibiofemoral joint using over 75,000 evaluations of a fine-grid elastic foundation (EF) contact model. The surrogate contact model computed contact forces and torques about 1000 times faster than a less accurate coarse grid EF contact model. Furthermore, the surrogate contact model was seven times more accurate than the coarse grid EF contact model within the input domain of a walking motion. For larger input domains, the surrogate contact model showed the expected trend of increasing error with increasing domain size. In addition, the surrogate contact model was able to identify out-of-contact situations with high accuracy. Computational contact models created using our proposed ANN approach may remove an important computational bottleneck from musculoskeletal simulations or optimizations incorporating deformable joint contact models. Copyright © 2015 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Surrogate Modeling of Deformable Joint Contact using Artificial Neural Networks

PubMed Central

Eskinazi, Ilan; Fregly, Benjamin J.

2016-01-01

Deformable joint contact models can be used to estimate loading conditions for cartilage-cartilage, implant-implant, human-orthotic, and foot-ground interactions. However, contact evaluations are often so expensive computationally that they can be prohibitive for simulations or optimizations requiring thousands or even millions of contact evaluations. To overcome this limitation, we developed a novel surrogate contact modeling method based on artificial neural networks (ANNs). The method uses special sampling techniques to gather input-output data points from an original (slow) contact model in multiple domains of input space, where each domain represents a different physical situation likely to be encountered. For each contact force and torque output by the original contact model, a multi-layer feed-forward ANN is defined, trained, and incorporated into a surrogate contact model. As an evaluation problem, we created an ANN-based surrogate contact model of an artificial tibiofemoral joint using over 75,000 evaluations of a fine-grid elastic foundation (EF) contact model. The surrogate contact model computed contact forces and torques about 1000 times faster than a less accurate coarse grid EF contact model. Furthermore, the surrogate contact model was seven times more accurate than the coarse grid EF contact model within the input domain of a walking motion. For larger input domains, the surrogate contact model showed the expected trend of increasing error with increasing domain size. In addition, the surrogate contact model was able to identify out-of-contact situations with high accuracy. Computational contact models created using our proposed ANN approach may remove an important computational bottleneck from musculoskeletal simulations or optimizations incorporating deformable joint contact models. PMID:26220591

Experiments on Induction Times of Diesel-Fuels and its Surrogates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eigenbrod, Christian; Reimert, Manfredo; Marks, Guenther; Rickmers, Peter; Klinkov, Konstantin; Moriue, Osamu

Aiming for as low polluting combustion control as possible in Diesel-engines or gas-turbines, pre-vaporized and pre-mixed combustion at low mean temperature levels marks the goal. Low-est emissions of nitric-oxides are achievable at combustion temperatures associated to mixture ratios close to the lean flammability limit. In order to prevent local mixture ratios to be below the flammability limit (resulting in flame extinction or generation of unburned hydrocarbons and carbon-monoxide) or to be richer than required (resulting in more nitric-oxide than possi-ble), well-stirred conditioning is required. The time needed for spray generation, vaporization and turbulent mixing is limited through the induction time to self-ignition in a hot high-pressure ambiance. Therefore, detailed knowledge about the autoignition of fuels is a pre-requisit. Experiments were performed at the Bremen drop tower to investigate the self-ignition behavior of single droplets of fossil-Diesel oil, rapeseed-oil, Gas-to-Liquid (GTL) synthetic Diesel-oil and the fossil Diesel surrogates n-heptane, n-tetradecane, 50 n-tetradecane/ 50 1-methylnaphthalene as well as on the GTL-surrogates n-tetradecane / bicyclohexyl and n-tetradecane / 2,2,4,4,6,8,8-heptamethylnonane (iso-cetane). The rules for selection of the above fuels and the experimental results are presented and dis-cussed.

Determining population and developmental pharmacokinetics of metronidazole using plasma and dried blood spot samples from premature infants.

PubMed

Cohen-Wolkowiez, Michael; Sampson, Mario; Bloom, Barry T; Arrieta, Antonio; Wynn, James L; Martz, Karen; Harper, Barrie; Kearns, Gregory L; Capparelli, Edmund V; Siegel, David; Benjamin, Daniel K; Smith, P Brian

2013-09-01

Limited pharmacokinetic (PK) data of metronidazole in premature infants have led to various dosing recommendations. Surrogate efficacy targets for metronidazole are ill-defined and therefore aimed to exceed minimum inhibitory concentration of organisms responsible for intra-abdominal infections. We evaluated the PK of metronidazole using plasma and dried blood spot samples from infants ≤32 weeks gestational age in an open-label, PK, multicenter (N = 3) study using population PK modeling (NONMEM). Monte Carlo simulations (N = 1000 virtual subjects) were used to evaluate the surrogate efficacy target. Metabolic ratios of parent and metabolite were calculated. Twenty-four premature infants (111 plasma and 51 dried blood spot samples) were enrolled: median (range) gestational age at birth 25 (23-31) weeks, postnatal age 27 (1-82) days, postmenstrual age 31 (24-39) weeks and weight 740 (431-1466) g. Population clearance (L/h/kg) was 0.038 × (postmenstrual age/30) and volume of distribution (L/kg) of 0.93. PK parameter estimates and precision were similar between plasma and dried blood spot samples. Metabolic ratios correlated with clearance. Simulations suggested the majority of infants in the neonatal intensive care unit (>80%) would meet the surrogate efficacy target using postmenstrual age-based dosing.

FIRST AUTHOR

EPA Science Inventory

Endospores of aerobic spore-forming bacteria have been shown to be useful microbial surrogates for evaluating water treatment plant performance. A method was developed for analyzing for this microbial surrogate. Results will be presented from a survey of various water sources, al...

Surrogate marker evaluation from an information theory perspective.

PubMed

Alonso, Ariel; Molenberghs, Geert

2007-03-01

The last 20 years have seen lots of work in the area of surrogate marker validation, partly devoted to frame the evaluation in a multitrial framework, leading to definitions in terms of the quality of trial- and individual-level association between a potential surrogate and a true endpoint (Buyse et al., 2000, Biostatistics 1, 49-67). A drawback is that different settings have led to different measures at the individual level. Here, we use information theory to create a unified framework, leading to a definition of surrogacy with an intuitive interpretation, offering interpretational advantages, and applicable in a wide range of situations. Our method provides a better insight into the chances of finding a good surrogate endpoint in a given situation. We further show that some of the previous proposals follow as special cases of our method. We illustrate our methodology using data from a clinical study in psychiatry.

A perfect correlate does not a surrogate make

PubMed Central

Baker, Stuart G; Kramer, Barnett S

2003-01-01

Background There is common belief among some medical researchers that if a potential surrogate endpoint is highly correlated with a true endpoint, then a positive (or negative) difference in potential surrogate endpoints between randomization groups would imply a positive (or negative) difference in unobserved true endpoints between randomization groups. We investigate this belief when the potential surrogate and unobserved true endpoints are perfectly correlated within each randomization group. Methods We use a graphical approach. The vertical axis is the unobserved true endpoint and the horizontal axis is the potential surrogate endpoint. Perfect correlation within each randomization group implies that, for each randomization group, potential surrogate and true endpoints are related by a straight line. In this scenario the investigator does not know the slopes or intercepts. We consider a plausible example where the slope of the line is higher for the experimental group than for the control group. Results In our example with unknown lines, a decrease in mean potential surrogate endpoints from control to experimental groups corresponds to an increase in mean true endpoint from control to experimental groups. Thus the potential surrogate endpoints give the wrong inference. Similar results hold for binary potential surrogate and true outcomes (although the notion of correlation does not apply). The potential surrogate endpointwould give the correct inference if either (i) the unknown lines for the two group coincided, which means that the distribution of true endpoint conditional on potential surrogate endpoint does not depend on treatment group, which is called the Prentice Criterion or (ii) if one could accurately predict the lines based on data from prior studies. Conclusion Perfect correlation between potential surrogate and unobserved true outcomes within randomized groups does not guarantee correct inference based on a potential surrogate endpoint. Even in early phase trials, investigators should not base conclusions on potential surrogate endpoints in which the only validation is high correlation with the true endpoint within a group. PMID:12962545

Response of macroinvertebrate communities to remediation-simulating conditions in Pennsylvania streams influenced by acid mine drainage

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, R.M.; Long, E.S.; Dropkin, D.S.

2008-01-01

We compared naturally alkaline streams with limestone lithology to freestone streams with and without acid mine drainage (AMD) to predict benthic macroinvertebrate community recovery from AMD in limestone-treated watersheds. Surrogate-recovered (limestone) and, in many cases, freestone systems had significantly higher macroinvertebrate densities; diversity; taxa richness; Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) taxa; EPT/chironomid ratios; scraper/collector - gatherer ratios; herbivores; collector - filterers; and scrapers. AMD-influenced systems had significantly greater numbers of Diptera and collector - gatherers. An entire trophic level (herbivores) was 'restored' in surrogate-recovered streams, which also showed greater trophic specialization. Indicator analysis identified seven taxa (within Crustacea, Diptera, Nematoda, Trichoptera, and Ephemeroptera) as significant indicators of limestone systems and six taxa (within Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Tricoptera, Coleoptera, and Mollusca) as significant freestone indicators, all useful as biological indicators of recovery from AMD. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007.

Real-time tumor motion estimation using respiratory surrogate via memory-based learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ruijiang; Lewis, John H.; Berbeco, Ross I.; Xing, Lei

2012-08-01

Respiratory tumor motion is a major challenge in radiation therapy for thoracic and abdominal cancers. Effective motion management requires an accurate knowledge of the real-time tumor motion. External respiration monitoring devices (optical, etc) provide a noninvasive, non-ionizing, low-cost and practical approach to obtain the respiratory signal. Due to the highly complex and nonlinear relations between tumor and surrogate motion, its ultimate success hinges on the ability to accurately infer the tumor motion from respiratory surrogates. Given their widespread use in the clinic, such a method is critically needed. We propose to use a powerful memory-based learning method to find the complex relations between tumor motion and respiratory surrogates. The method first stores the training data in memory and then finds relevant data to answer a particular query. Nearby data points are assigned high relevance (or weights) and conversely distant data are assigned low relevance. By fitting relatively simple models to local patches instead of fitting one single global model, it is able to capture highly nonlinear and complex relations between the internal tumor motion and external surrogates accurately. Due to the local nature of weighting functions, the method is inherently robust to outliers in the training data. Moreover, both training and adapting to new data are performed almost instantaneously with memory-based learning, making it suitable for dynamically following variable internal/external relations. We evaluated the method using respiratory motion data from 11 patients. The data set consists of simultaneous measurement of 3D tumor motion and 1D abdominal surface (used as the surrogate signal in this study). There are a total of 171 respiratory traces, with an average peak-to-peak amplitude of ∼15 mm and average duration of ∼115 s per trace. Given only 5 s (roughly one breath) pretreatment training data, the method achieved an average 3D error of 1.5 mm and 95th percentile error of 3.4 mm on unseen test data. The average 3D error was further reduced to 1.4 mm when the model was tuned to its optimal setting for each respiratory trace. In one trace where a few outliers are present in the training data, the proposed method achieved an error reduction of as much as ∼50% compared with the best linear model (1.0 mm versus 2.1 mm). The memory-based learning technique is able to accurately capture the highly complex and nonlinear relations between tumor and surrogate motion in an efficient manner (a few milliseconds per estimate). Furthermore, the algorithm is particularly suitable to handle situations where the training data are contaminated by large errors or outliers. These desirable properties make it an ideal candidate for accurate and robust tumor gating/tracking using respiratory surrogates.

Surrogacy families 10 years on: relationship with the surrogate, decisions over disclosure and children's understanding of their surrogacy origins

PubMed Central

Jadva, V.; Blake, L.; Casey, P.; Golombok, S.

2012-01-01

BACKGROUND This study aimed to prospectively examine families created using surrogacy over a 10-year period in the UK with respect to intending parents' and children's relationship with the surrogate mother, parents' decisions over disclosure and children's understanding of the nature of their conception. METHODS Semi-structured interviews were administered by trained researchers to intending mothers, intending fathers and children on four occasions over a 10-year period. Forty-two families (19 with a genetic surrogate mother) participated when the child was 1-year old and by age 10 years, 33 families remained in the study. Data were collected on the frequency of contact with the surrogate mother, relationship with the surrogate, disclosure of surrogacy to the child and the child's understanding of their surrogacy birth. RESULTS Frequency of contact between surrogacy families and their surrogate mother decreased over time, particularly for families whose surrogate was a previously unknown genetic carrier (P < 0.001) (i.e. where they had met through a third party and the surrogate mother's egg was used to conceive the child). Most families reported harmonious relationships with their surrogate mother. At age 10 years, 19 (90%) children who had been informed of the nature of their conception had a good understanding of this and 13 of the 14 children who were in contact with their surrogate reported that they liked her. CONCLUSIONS Surrogacy families maintained good relationships with the surrogate mother over time. Children felt positive about their surrogate mother and their surrogacy birth. The sample size of this study was small and further, larger investigations are needed before firm conclusions can be drawn. PMID:22814484

Modeling of the radiation belt megnetosphere in decisional timeframes

DOEpatents

Koller, Josef; Reeves, Geoffrey D; Friedel, Reiner H.W.

2013-04-23

Systems and methods for calculating L* in the magnetosphere with essentially the same accuracy as with a physics based model at many times the speed by developing a surrogate trained to be a surrogate for the physics-based model. The trained model can then beneficially process input data falling within the training range of the surrogate model. The surrogate model can be a feedforward neural network and the physics-based model can be the TSK03 model. Operatively, the surrogate model can use parameters on which the physics-based model was based, and/or spatial data for the location where L* is to be calculated. Surrogate models should be provided for each of a plurality of pitch angles. Accordingly, a surrogate model having a closed drift shell can be used from the plurality of models. The feedforward neural network can have a plurality of input-layer units, there being at least one input-layer unit for each physics-based model parameter, a plurality of hidden layer units and at least one output unit for the value of L*.

Induction of lactation in the intended mother of a surrogate pregnancy: case report.

PubMed

Biervliet, F P; Maguiness, S D; Hay, D M; Killick, S R; Atkin, S L

2001-03-01

A case of a successful induction of lactation in a commissioning mother of a surrogate pregnancy is reported. Induction of lactation was achieved with oral metoclopramide which was well tolerated. Alternative methods to induce lactation are reviewed. The advantages of breast-feeding and the relative ease with which lactation can be induced after a surrogate pregnancy would suggest that this could be offered to all commissioning mothers.

Pu 236 ( n , f ) , Pu 237 ( n , f ) , and Pu 238 ( n , f ) cross sections deduced from ( p , t ) , ( p , d ) , and ( p , p ' ) surrogate reactions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hughes, R. O.; Beausang, C. W.; Ross, T. J.

2014-07-01

The Pu 236(n,f), Pu 237(n,f) and Pu 238(n,f) cross sections have been inferred by utilizing the surrogate ratio method. Targets of Pu 239 and U 235 were bombarded with 28.5-MeV protons, and the light ion recoils, as well as fission fragments, were detected using the STARS detector array at the K150 Cyclotron at the Texas A&M cyclotron facility. The (p, tf) reaction on Pu 239 and U 235 targets was used to deduce the σ (Pu 236(n,f))/σ(U 232(n,f)) ratio, and the Pu 236(n,f) cross section was subsequently determined for En=0.5–7.5 MeV. Similarly, the (p,df) reaction on the same two targetsmore » was used to deduce the σ(Pu 237(n,f))/σ(U 233(n,f)) ratio, and the Pu 237(n,f) cross section was extracted in the energy range En=0.5–7 MeV. The Pu 238(n,f) cross section was also deduced by utilizing the (p,p') reaction channel on the same targets. There is good agreement with the recent ENDF/B-VII.1 evaluated cross section data for Pu 238(n,f) in the range En=0.5–10.5 MeV and for Pu 237(n,f) in the range En=0.5–7 MeV; however, the Pu 236(n,f) cross section deduced in the present work is higher than the evaluation between 2 and 7 MeV.« less

Observational Study of Infective Endocarditis at a Community-based Hospital: Dominance of Elderly Patients with Comorbidity

PubMed Central

Nagai, Tomoo; Takase, Yoshiyuki; Hamabe, Akira; Tabata, Hirotsugu

2017-01-01

Objective The purpose of this study was to present the recent clinical profiles and the real-world management of infective endocarditis (IE). Methods All medical records of patients with IE were reviewed retrospectively for their clinical data, including clinical presentation, laboratory results, blood cultures, echocardiographic findings, treatments and complications. Using the clinical data collected, we calculated the EuroSCORE II, the European risk score for adult cardiac surgery, the Charlson Comorbidity Index as a surrogate of comordibity, and the Katz Index as a surrogate of frailty. Results Thirty-eight patients were identified as having IE (24 men, age: 71.8±13.1 years). Congestive heart failure occurred in 16 patients (42%), stroke in 14 (50%), and systemic embolism in 5 (13%). The EuroSCORE II and Charlson Comorbidity Index were high (7.7±5.8% and 5.5±2.8%, respectively). The Katz Index was fair (5.5±1.4) before the onset but deteriorated to 2.8±2.7 at the time of establishing the diagnosis of IE (p<0.001). Early surgery was performed in 22 cases (61%). In-hospital death occurred in 10 cases (26%). A EuroSCORE II ≥9%, Staphylococcus aureus etiology, and a Charlson Comorbidity Index were suggested as determinants of in-hospital death (hazard ratios: 173.60, 9.31, 1.57, respectively). In contrast, early surgery was suggested as a determinant of the survival (hazard ratio: 0.04). The Charlson Comorbidity Index was also suggested as a determinant for selecting conservative management (odds ratio: 1.40). Conclusion Comorbidity may influence the treatment selection and outcome of elderly patients with IE. PMID:29225254

The Use of Surrogate Endpoints in Regulating Medicines for Cardio-Renal Disease: Opinions of Stakeholders

PubMed Central

Schievink, Bauke; Lambers Heerspink, Hiddo; Leufkens, Hubert; De Zeeuw, Dick; Hoekman, Jarno

2014-01-01

Aim There is discussion whether medicines can be authorized on the market based on evidence from surrogate endpoints. We assessed opinions of different stakeholders on this topic. Methods We conducted an online questionnaire that targeted various stakeholder groups (regulatory agencies, pharmaceutical industry, academia, relevant public sector organisations) and medical specialties (cardiology or nephrology vs. other). Participants were enrolled through purposeful sampling. We inquired for conditions under which surrogate endpoints can be used, the validity of various cardio-renal biomarkers and new approaches for biomarker use. Results Participants agreed that surrogate endpoints can be used when the surrogate is scientifically valid (5-point Likert response format, mean score: 4.3, SD: 0.9) or when there is an unmet clinical need (mean score: 3.8, SD: 1.2). Industry participants agreed to a greater extent than regulators and academics. However, out of four proposed surrogates (blood pressure (BP), HbA1c, albuminuria, CRP) for cardiovascular outcomes or end-stage renal disease, only use of BP for cardiovascular outcomes was deemed moderately accurate (mean: 3.6, SD: 1.1). Specialists in cardiology or nephrology tended to be more positive about the use of surrogate endpoints. Conclusion Stakeholders in drug development do not oppose to the use of surrogate endpoints in drug marketing authorization, but most surrogates are not considered valid. To solve this impasse, increased efforts are required to validate surrogate endpoints and to explore alternative ways to use them. PMID:25268242

Large Eddy Simulation of Turbulent Combustion

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-10-01

a new method to automatically generate skeletal kinetic mechanisms for surrogate fuels, using the directed relation graph method with error...propagation, was developed. These mechanisms are guaranteed to match results obtained using detailed chemistry within a user- defined accuracy for any...specified target. They can be combined together to produce adequate chemical models for surrogate fuels. A library containing skeletal mechanisms of various

L2 Milestone: Neutron Capture Cross Sections from Surrogate (p, d) Measurements: Determination of the Unknown 87Y(n, g) Cross Section and Assessment of the Method Via the 90Zr(n, g) Benchmark Case: Theory Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Escher, J. E.

Cross sections for compound-nuclear reactions involving unstable targets are important for many applications, but can often not be measured directly. Here we describe a method for extracting cross sections for neutron-capture on unstable isotopes from indirect (surrogate) measurements. The surrogate reaction, which produces the compound nucleus of interest, has to be described and the decay of the nucleus has to be modeled. We outline the approach for one-neutron pickup and report on the determination of the 90Zr(n, γ ) reaction from surrogate 92Zr(p,d) data, which is compared to the directly-measured capture cross section and thus provides a benchmark for themore » method. We then apply the method to determine the 87Y(n, γ ) cross section, which has not been measured directly. The work was carried out in the context of an LLNL L2 Milestone. This report addresses the theory aspects of the milestone. A complementary document summarizes the experimental efforts [1].« less

Urinary coproporphyrin I/(I + III) ratio as a surrogate for MRP2 or other transporter activities involved in methotrexate clearance.

PubMed

Benz-de Bretagne, Isabelle; Zahr, Noël; Le Gouge, Amélie; Hulot, Jean-Sébastien; Houillier, Caroline; Hoang-Xuan, Khe; Gyan, Emmanuel; Lissandre, Séverine; Choquet, Sylvain; Le Guellec, Chantal

2014-08-01

The urinary coproporphyrin I/(I + III) ratio may be a surrogate for MRP2 activity. We conducted a prospective study in patients receiving methotrexate (MTX) to examine the relationship between this ratio and the pharmacokinetics of a MRP2 substrate. Three urine samples were collected from 81 patients for UCP I/(I + III) ratio determination: one before (P1), one at the end of MTX infusion (P2), and one on the day of hospital discharge (P3). Three polymorphisms of ABCC2 were analysed and their relationships with basal UCP I/(I + III) ratio values assessed. All associated drugs were recorded and a drug interaction score (DIS) was assigned. Population pharmacokinetic analysis was conducted to assess whether MTX clearance (MTXCL) was associated with the basal UCP I/(I + III) ratio, its variation during MTX infusion, the DIS or other common covariates. The basal UCP I/(I + III) ratio was not associated with ABCC2 polymorphisms and did not differ according to the DIS. Significant changes in the ratio were observed over time, with an increase between P1 and P2 and a decrease at P3 (P < 0.001). No association was found between basal UCP I/(I + III) ratio and MTXCL. The final model indicates that MTXCL was dependent on the change in the ratio between P1 and P3, DIS and creatinine clearance. The basal UCP I/(I + III) ratio is not predictive of MTXCL. However, it is sensitive to the presence of MTX, so it is plausible that it reflects a function modified in response to the drug. © 2014 The British Pharmacological Society.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lei, Huan; Yang, Xiu; Zheng, Bin

Biomolecules exhibit conformational fluctuations near equilibrium states, inducing uncertainty in various biological properties in a dynamic way. We have developed a general method to quantify the uncertainty of target properties induced by conformational fluctuations. Using a generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion, we construct a surrogate model of the target property with respect to varying conformational states. We also propose a method to increase the sparsity of the gPC expansion by defining a set of conformational “active space” random variables. With the increased sparsity, we employ the compressive sensing method to accurately construct the surrogate model. We demonstrate the performance ofmore » the surrogate model by evaluating fluctuation-induced uncertainty in solvent-accessible surface area for the bovine trypsin inhibitor protein system and show that the new approach offers more accurate statistical information than standard Monte Carlo approaches. Further more, the constructed surrogate model also enables us to directly evaluate the target property under various conformational states, yielding a more accurate response surface than standard sparse grid collocation methods. In particular, the new method provides higher accuracy in high-dimensional systems, such as biomolecules, where sparse grid performance is limited by the accuracy of the computed quantity of interest. Finally, our new framework is generalizable and can be used to investigate the uncertainty of a wide variety of target properties in biomolecular systems.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lei, Huan; Yang, Xiu; Zheng, Bin

Biomolecules exhibit conformational fluctuations near equilibrium states, inducing uncertainty in various biological properties in a dynamic way. We have developed a general method to quantify the uncertainty of target properties induced by conformational fluctuations. Using a generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion, we construct a surrogate model of the target property with respect to varying conformational states. We also propose a method to increase the sparsity of the gPC expansion by defining a set of conformational “active space” random variables. With the increased sparsity, we employ the compressive sensing method to accurately construct the surrogate model. We demonstrate the performance ofmore » the surrogate model by evaluating fluctuation-induced uncertainty in solvent-accessible surface area for the bovine trypsin inhibitor protein system and show that the new approach offers more accurate statistical information than standard Monte Carlo approaches. Further more, the constructed surrogate model also enables us to directly evaluate the target property under various conformational states, yielding a more accurate response surface than standard sparse grid collocation methods. In particular, the new method provides higher accuracy in high-dimensional systems, such as biomolecules, where sparse grid performance is limited by the accuracy of the computed quantity of interest. Our new framework is generalizable and can be used to investigate the uncertainty of a wide variety of target properties in biomolecular systems.« less

The Biomarker-Surrogacy Evaluation Schema: a review of the biomarker-surrogate literature and a proposal for a criterion-based, quantitative, multidimensional hierarchical levels of evidence schema for evaluating the status of biomarkers as surrogate endpoints.

PubMed

Lassere, Marissa N

2008-06-01

There are clear advantages to using biomarkers and surrogate endpoints, but concerns about clinical and statistical validity and systematic methods to evaluate these aspects hinder their efficient application. Section 2 is a systematic, historical review of the biomarker-surrogate endpoint literature with special reference to the nomenclature, the systems of classification and statistical methods developed for their evaluation. In Section 3 an explicit, criterion-based, quantitative, multidimensional hierarchical levels of evidence schema - Biomarker-Surrogacy Evaluation Schema - is proposed to evaluate and co-ordinate the multiple dimensions (biological, epidemiological, statistical, clinical trial and risk-benefit evidence) of the biomarker clinical endpoint relationships. The schema systematically evaluates and ranks the surrogacy status of biomarkers and surrogate endpoints using defined levels of evidence. The schema incorporates the three independent domains: Study Design, Target Outcome and Statistical Evaluation. Each domain has items ranked from zero to five. An additional category called Penalties incorporates additional considerations of biological plausibility, risk-benefit and generalizability. The total score (0-15) determines the level of evidence, with Level 1 the strongest and Level 5 the weakest. The term ;surrogate' is restricted to markers attaining Levels 1 or 2 only. Surrogacy status of markers can then be directly compared within and across different areas of medicine to guide individual, trial-based or drug-development decisions. This schema would facilitate communication between clinical, researcher, regulatory, industry and consumer participants necessary for evaluation of the biomarker-surrogate-clinical endpoint relationship in their different settings.

Reduced order surrogate modelling (ROSM) of high dimensional deterministic simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitry, Mina

Often, computationally expensive engineering simulations can prohibit the engineering design process. As a result, designers may turn to a less computationally demanding approximate, or surrogate, model to facilitate their design process. However, owing to the the curse of dimensionality, classical surrogate models become too computationally expensive for high dimensional data. To address this limitation of classical methods, we develop linear and non-linear Reduced Order Surrogate Modelling (ROSM) techniques. Two algorithms are presented, which are based on a combination of linear/kernel principal component analysis and radial basis functions. These algorithms are applied to subsonic and transonic aerodynamic data, as well as a model for a chemical spill in a channel. The results of this thesis show that ROSM can provide a significant computational benefit over classical surrogate modelling, sometimes at the expense of a minor loss in accuracy.

A data-driven dynamics simulation framework for railway vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nie, Yinyu; Tang, Zhao; Liu, Fengjia; Chang, Jian; Zhang, Jianjun

2018-03-01

The finite element (FE) method is essential for simulating vehicle dynamics with fine details, especially for train crash simulations. However, factors such as the complexity of meshes and the distortion involved in a large deformation would undermine its calculation efficiency. An alternative method, the multi-body (MB) dynamics simulation provides satisfying time efficiency but limited accuracy when highly nonlinear dynamic process is involved. To maintain the advantages of both methods, this paper proposes a data-driven simulation framework for dynamics simulation of railway vehicles. This framework uses machine learning techniques to extract nonlinear features from training data generated by FE simulations so that specific mesh structures can be formulated by a surrogate element (or surrogate elements) to replace the original mechanical elements, and the dynamics simulation can be implemented by co-simulation with the surrogate element(s) embedded into a MB model. This framework consists of a series of techniques including data collection, feature extraction, training data sampling, surrogate element building, and model evaluation and selection. To verify the feasibility of this framework, we present two case studies, a vertical dynamics simulation and a longitudinal dynamics simulation, based on co-simulation with MATLAB/Simulink and Simpack, and a further comparison with a popular data-driven model (the Kriging model) is provided. The simulation result shows that using the legendre polynomial regression model in building surrogate elements can largely cut down the simulation time without sacrifice in accuracy.

redNumerical modelling of a peripheral arterial stenosis using dimensionally reduced models and kernel methods.

PubMed

Köppl, Tobias; Santin, Gabriele; Haasdonk, Bernard; Helmig, Rainer

2018-05-06

In this work, we consider two kinds of model reduction techniques to simulate blood flow through the largest systemic arteries, where a stenosis is located in a peripheral artery i.e. in an artery that is located far away from the heart. For our simulations we place the stenosis in one of the tibial arteries belonging to the right lower leg (right post tibial artery). The model reduction techniques that are used are on the one hand dimensionally reduced models (1-D and 0-D models, the so-called mixed-dimension model) and on the other hand surrogate models produced by kernel methods. Both methods are combined in such a way that the mixed-dimension models yield training data for the surrogate model, where the surrogate model is parametrised by the degree of narrowing of the peripheral stenosis. By means of a well-trained surrogate model, we show that simulation data can be reproduced with a satisfactory accuracy and that parameter optimisation or state estimation problems can be solved in a very efficient way. Furthermore it is demonstrated that a surrogate model enables us to present after a very short simulation time the impact of a varying degree of stenosis on blood flow, obtaining a speedup of several orders over the full model. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Simultaneous tumor and surrogate motion tracking with dynamic MRI for radiation therapy planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Seyoun; Farah, Rana; Shea, Steven M.; Tryggestad, Erik; Hales, Russell; Lee, Junghoon

2018-01-01

Respiration-induced tumor motion is a major obstacle for achieving high-precision radiotherapy of cancers in the thoracic and abdominal regions. Surrogate-based estimation and tracking methods are commonly used in radiotherapy, but with limited understanding of quantified correlation to tumor motion. In this study, we propose a method to simultaneously track the lung tumor and external surrogates to evaluate their spatial correlation in a quantitative way using dynamic MRI, which allows real-time acquisition without ionizing radiation exposure. To capture the lung and whole tumor, four MRI-compatible fiducials are placed on the patient’s chest and upper abdomen. Two different types of acquisitions are performed in the sagittal orientation including multi-slice 2D cine MRIs to reconstruct 4D-MRI and two-slice 2D cine MRIs to simultaneously track the tumor and fiducials. A phase-binned 4D-MRI is first reconstructed from multi-slice MR images using body area as a respiratory surrogate and groupwise registration. The 4D-MRI provides 3D template volumes for different breathing phases. 3D tumor position is calculated by 3D-2D template matching in which 3D tumor templates in the 4D-MRI reconstruction and the 2D cine MRIs from the two-slice tracking dataset are registered. 3D trajectories of the external surrogates are derived via matching a 3D geometrical model of the fiducials to their segmentations on the 2D cine MRIs. We tested our method on ten lung cancer patients. Using a correlation analysis, the 3D tumor trajectory demonstrates a noticeable phase mismatch and significant cycle-to-cycle motion variation, while the external surrogate was not sensitive enough to capture such variations. Additionally, there was significant phase mismatch between surrogate signals obtained from the fiducials at different locations.

Determination of Diethyl Phthalate and Polyhexamethylene Guanidine in Surrogate Alcohol from Russia

PubMed Central

Monakhova, Yulia B.; Kuballa, Thomas; Leitz, Jenny; Lachenmeier, Dirk W.

2011-01-01

Analytical methods based on spectroscopic techniques were developed and validated for the determination of diethyl phthalate (DEP) and polyhexamethylene guanidine (PHMG), which may occur in unrecorded alcohol. Analysis for PHMG was based on UV-VIS spectrophotometry after derivatization with Eosin Y and 1H NMR spectroscopy of the DMSO extract. Analysis of DEP was performed with direct UV-VIS and 1H NMR methods. Multivariate curve resolution and spectra computation methods were used to confirm the presence of PHMG and DEP in the investigated beverages. Of 22 analysed alcohol samples, two contained DEP or PHMG. 1H NMR analysis also revealed the presence of signals of hawthorn extract in three medicinal alcohols used as surrogate alcohol. The simple and cheap UV-VIS methods can be used for rapid screening of surrogate alcohol samples for impurities, while 1H NMR is recommended for specific confirmatory analysis if required. PMID:21647285

Determination of diethyl phthalate and polyhexamethylene guanidine in surrogate alcohol from Russia.

PubMed

Monakhova, Yulia B; Kuballa, Thomas; Leitz, Jenny; Lachenmeier, Dirk W

2011-01-01

Analytical methods based on spectroscopic techniques were developed and validated for the determination of diethyl phthalate (DEP) and polyhexamethylene guanidine (PHMG), which may occur in unrecorded alcohol. Analysis for PHMG was based on UV-VIS spectrophotometry after derivatization with Eosin Y and (1)H NMR spectroscopy of the DMSO extract. Analysis of DEP was performed with direct UV-VIS and (1)H NMR methods. Multivariate curve resolution and spectra computation methods were used to confirm the presence of PHMG and DEP in the investigated beverages. Of 22 analysed alcohol samples, two contained DEP or PHMG. (1)H NMR analysis also revealed the presence of signals of hawthorn extract in three medicinal alcohols used as surrogate alcohol. The simple and cheap UV-VIS methods can be used for rapid screening of surrogate alcohol samples for impurities, while (1)H NMR is recommended for specific confirmatory analysis if required.

Testing for nonlinearity in time series: The method of surrogate data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Theiler, J.; Galdrikian, B.; Longtin, A.

1991-01-01

We describe a statistical approach for identifying nonlinearity in time series; in particular, we want to avoid claims of chaos when simpler models (such as linearly correlated noise) can explain the data. The method requires a careful statement of the null hypothesis which characterizes a candidate linear process, the generation of an ensemble of surrogate'' data sets which are similar to the original time series but consistent with the null hypothesis, and the computation of a discriminating statistic for the original and for each of the surrogate data sets. The idea is to test the original time series against themore » null hypothesis by checking whether the discriminating statistic computed for the original time series differs significantly from the statistics computed for each of the surrogate sets. We present algorithms for generating surrogate data under various null hypotheses, and we show the results of numerical experiments on artificial data using correlation dimension, Lyapunov exponent, and forecasting error as discriminating statistics. Finally, we consider a number of experimental time series -- including sunspots, electroencephalogram (EEG) signals, and fluid convection -- and evaluate the statistical significance of the evidence for nonlinear structure in each case. 56 refs., 8 figs.« less

Imputation of a true endpoint from a surrogate: application to a cluster randomized controlled trial with partial information on the true endpoint.

PubMed

Nixon, Richard M; Duffy, Stephen W; Fender, Guy R K

2003-09-24

The Anglia Menorrhagia Education Study (AMES) is a randomized controlled trial testing the effectiveness of an education package applied to general practices. Binary data are available from two sources; general practitioner reported referrals to hospital, and referrals to hospital determined by independent audit of the general practices. The former may be regarded as a surrogate for the latter, which is regarded as the true endpoint. Data are only available for the true end point on a sub set of the practices, but there are surrogate data for almost all of the audited practices and for most of the remaining practices. The aim of this paper was to estimate the treatment effect using data from every practice in the study. Where the true endpoint was not available, it was estimated by three approaches, a regression method, multiple imputation and a full likelihood model. Including the surrogate data in the analysis yielded an estimate of the treatment effect which was more precise than an estimate gained from using the true end point data alone. The full likelihood method provides a new imputation tool at the disposal of trials with surrogate data.

Communicating with Clinicians: The Experiences of Surrogate Decision Makers for Hospitalized Older Adults

PubMed Central

Torke, Alexia M.; Petronio, Sandra; Purnell, Christianna E.; Sachs, Greg A.; Helft, Paul R.; Callahan, Christopher M.

2012-01-01

Background/Objectives When hospitalized older adults have impaired cognition, family members or other surrogates must communicate with clinicians to provide information and make medical decisions for the patient. The present study describes communication experiences of surrogates who recently made a major medical decision for a hospitalized older adult. Design Semi-structured interviews about a recent hospitalization. Setting Two hospitals both affiliated with 1 large medical school: an urban, public hospital; and a university-affiliated tertiary referral hospital. Participants Surrogates were eligible if they had recently made a major medical decision for a hospitalized patient aged 65 or older and were available for an interview within 1 month (2-5 months if the patient died). Measurements Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using methods of grounded theory. Results We interviewed 35 surrogates. They were 80% female, 44% white and 56% African American. Three primary themes emerged. We found the Nature of Surrogate/Clinician Relationships was best characterized as a relationship with a “team” of clinicians rather than individual clinicians due to frequent staff changes and multiple clinicians. Surrogates reported their Communication Needs, including frequent communication, information, and emotional support. Surrogates valued communication from any member of the clinical team, including nurses, social workers, and physicians. Third, surrogates described Trust and Mistrust, which were formed largely through surrogates’ communication experiences. Conclusion In the hospital, surrogates form relationships with a “team” of clinicians rather than with individuals. Yet effective communication and expressions of emotional support frequently occur and are highly valued by surrogates. Future interventions should focus on meeting surrogates’ needs for frequent communication, high levels of information and emotional support. PMID:22881864

Definitions and validation criteria for biomarkers and surrogate endpoints: development and testing of a quantitative hierarchical levels of evidence schema.

PubMed

Lassere, Marissa N; Johnson, Kent R; Boers, Maarten; Tugwell, Peter; Brooks, Peter; Simon, Lee; Strand, Vibeke; Conaghan, Philip G; Ostergaard, Mikkel; Maksymowych, Walter P; Landewe, Robert; Bresnihan, Barry; Tak, Paul-Peter; Wakefield, Richard; Mease, Philip; Bingham, Clifton O; Hughes, Michael; Altman, Doug; Buyse, Marc; Galbraith, Sally; Wells, George

2007-03-01

There are clear advantages to using biomarkers and surrogate endpoints, but concerns about clinical and statistical validity and systematic methods to evaluate these aspects hinder their efficient application. Our objective was to review the literature on biomarkers and surrogates to develop a hierarchical schema that systematically evaluates and ranks the surrogacy status of biomarkers and surrogates; and to obtain feedback from stakeholders. After a systematic search of Medline and Embase on biomarkers, surrogate (outcomes, endpoints, markers, indicators), intermediate endpoints, and leading indicators, a quantitative surrogate validation schema was developed and subsequently evaluated at a stakeholder workshop. The search identified several classification schema and definitions. Components of these were incorporated into a new quantitative surrogate validation level of evidence schema that evaluates biomarkers along 4 domains: Target, Study Design, Statistical Strength, and Penalties. Scores derived from 3 domains the Target that the marker is being substituted for, the Design of the (best) evidence, and the Statistical strength are additive. Penalties are then applied if there is serious counterevidence. A total score (0 to 15) determines the level of evidence, with Level 1 the strongest and Level 5 the weakest. It was proposed that the term "surrogate" be restricted to markers attaining Levels 1 or 2 only. Most stakeholders agreed that this operationalization of the National Institutes of Health definitions of biomarker, surrogate endpoint, and clinical endpoint was useful. Further development and application of this schema provides incentives and guidance for effective biomarker and surrogate endpoint research, and more efficient drug discovery, development, and approval.

An Open-Source Toolbox for Surrogate Modeling of Joint Contact Mechanics

PubMed Central

Eskinazi, Ilan

2016-01-01

Goal Incorporation of elastic joint contact models into simulations of human movement could facilitate studying the interactions between muscles, ligaments, and bones. Unfortunately, elastic joint contact models are often too expensive computationally to be used within iterative simulation frameworks. This limitation can be overcome by using fast and accurate surrogate contact models that fit or interpolate input-output data sampled from existing elastic contact models. However, construction of surrogate contact models remains an arduous task. The aim of this paper is to introduce an open-source program called Surrogate Contact Modeling Toolbox (SCMT) that facilitates surrogate contact model creation, evaluation, and use. Methods SCMT interacts with the third party software FEBio to perform elastic contact analyses of finite element models and uses Matlab to train neural networks that fit the input-output contact data. SCMT features sample point generation for multiple domains, automated sampling, sample point filtering, and surrogate model training and testing. Results An overview of the software is presented along with two example applications. The first example demonstrates creation of surrogate contact models of artificial tibiofemoral and patellofemoral joints and evaluates their computational speed and accuracy, while the second demonstrates the use of surrogate contact models in a forward dynamic simulation of an open-chain leg extension-flexion motion. Conclusion SCMT facilitates the creation of computationally fast and accurate surrogate contact models. Additionally, it serves as a bridge between FEBio and OpenSim musculoskeletal modeling software. Significance Researchers may now create and deploy surrogate models of elastic joint contact with minimal effort. PMID:26186761

CTEPP STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE FOR PREPARATION OF SURROGATE RECOVERY STANDARD AND INTERNAL STANDARD SOLUTIONS FOR NEUTRAL TARGET ANALYTES (SOP-5.25)

EPA Science Inventory

This standard operating procedure describes the method used for preparing internal standard, surrogate recovery standard and calibration standard solutions for neutral analytes used for gas chromatography/mass spectrometry analysis.

75 FR 47270 - Certain Non-Frozen Apple Juice Concentrate from the People's Republic of China: Notice of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-05

... negotiate and sign contracts and other agreements; and (4) has autonomy from the government regarding the... concentrate. In addition, we have surrogate financial ratios from a Polish juice company. Of the countries...

Financial Surrogate Decision Making: Lessons from Applied Experimental Philosophy.

PubMed

Feltz, Adam

2016-09-20

An estimated 1 in 4 elderly Americans need a surrogate to make decisions at least once in their lives. With an aging population, that number is almost certainly going to increase. This paper focuses on financial surrogate decision making. To illustrate some of the empirical and moral implications associated with financial surrogate decision making, two experiments suggest that default choice settings can predictably influence some surrogate financial decision making. Experiment 1 suggested that when making hypothetical financial decisions, surrogates tended to stay with default settings (OR = 4.37, 95% CI 1.52, 12.48). Experiment 2 replicated and extended this finding suggesting that in a different context (OR = 2.27, 95% CI 1.1, 4.65). Experiment 2 also suggested that those who were more numerate were less likely to be influenced by default settings than the less numerate, but only when the decision is whether to "opt in" (p = .05). These data highlight the importance of a recent debate about "nudging." Defaults are common methods to nudge people to make desirable choices while allowing the liberty to choose otherwise. Some of the ethics of using default settings to nudge surrogate decision makers are discussed.

Statistical characteristics of surrogate data based on geophysical measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venema, V.; Bachner, S.; Rust, H. W.; Simmer, C.

2006-09-01

In this study, the statistical properties of a range of measurements are compared with those of their surrogate time series. Seven different records are studied, amongst others, historical time series of mean daily temperature, daily rain sums and runoff from two rivers, and cloud measurements. Seven different algorithms are used to generate the surrogate time series. The best-known method is the iterative amplitude adjusted Fourier transform (IAAFT) algorithm, which is able to reproduce the measured distribution as well as the power spectrum. Using this setup, the measurements and their surrogates are compared with respect to their power spectrum, increment distribution, structure functions, annual percentiles and return values. It is found that the surrogates that reproduce the power spectrum and the distribution of the measurements are able to closely match the increment distributions and the structure functions of the measurements, but this often does not hold for surrogates that only mimic the power spectrum of the measurement. However, even the best performing surrogates do not have asymmetric increment distributions, i.e., they cannot reproduce nonlinear dynamical processes that are asymmetric in time. Furthermore, we have found deviations of the structure functions on small scales.

[Immunological surrogate endpoints to evaluate vaccine efficacy].

PubMed

Jin, Pengfei; Li, Jingxin; Zhou, Yang; Zhu, Fengcai

2015-12-01

An immunological surrogate endpoints is a vaccine-induced immune response (either humoral or cellular immune) that predicts protection against clinical endpoints (infection or disease), and can be used to evaluate vaccine efficacy in clinical vaccine trials. Compared with field efficacy trials observing clinical endpoints, immunological vaccine trials could reduce the sample size or shorten the duration of a trial, which promote the license and development of new candidate vaccines. For these reasons, establishing immunological surrogate endpoints is one of 14 Grand Challenges of Global Health of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. From two parts of definition and statistical methods for evaluation of surrogate endpoints, this review provides a more comprehensive description.

Formulation of an RP-1 Pyrolysis Surrogate from Shock Tube Measurements of Fuel and Ethylene Time Histories

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-01

They also provide modelers (in both kinetics and computational fluid dynamics) with a method of representing, during simulation, a fuel that may have...1 and RP-2 from [Huber 2009a] Composition, mole fraction Fluid RP-1 surrogate RP-2 surrogate -methyldecalin 0.354 0.354 5-methylnonane 0.150...modeling and experimental results. Experimental Thermal and Fluid Science, 28(7):701–708, 2004. L. F. Albright, B. L. Crynes, and W. H. Corcoran

Post-Release Performance of Natural and Hatchery Subyearling Fall Chinook Salmon in the Snake and Clearwater Rivers.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Connor, William P.

2008-04-01

In 2006, we continued a multi-year study to compare smolt-to-adult return rate (SAR) ratios between two groups of Snake River Basin fall Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that reached the sea through a combination of either (1) transportation and inriver migration or (2) bypass and inriver migration. We captured natural subyearlings rearing along the Snake and Clearwater rivers and implanted them with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags, but knew in advance that sample sizes of natural fish would not be large enough for precise comparisons of SAR ratios. To increase sample sizes, we also cultured Lyons Ferry Hatchery subyearlings under amore » surrogate rearing strategy, implanted them with PIT tags, and released them into the Snake and Clearwater rivers to migrate seaward. The surrogate rearing strategy involved slowing growth at Dworshak National Fish Hatchery to match natural subyearlings in size at release as closely as possible, while insuring that all of the surrogate subyearlings were large enough for tagging (i.e., 60-mm fork length). Surrogate subyearlings were released from late May to early July 2006 to coincide with the historical period of peak beach seine catch of natural parr in the Snake and Clearwater rivers. We also PIT tagged a large representative sample of hatchery subyearlings reared under a production rearing strategy and released them into the Snake and Clearwater rivers in 2006 as part of new research on dam passage experiences (i.e., transported from a dam, dam passage via bypass, dam passage via turbine intakes or spillways). The production rearing strategy involved accelerating growth at Lyons Ferry Hatchery, sometimes followed by a few weeks of acclimation at sites along the Snake and Clearwater rivers before release from May to June. Releasing production subyearlings has been suggested as a possible alternative for making inferences on the natural population if surrogate fish were not available. Smoltto-adult return rates are not reported here, but will be presented in future reports written after workshops and input by federal, state, and tribal researchers. In this report, we compared the postrelease performance of natural subyearlings to the postrelease performance of surrogate and production subyearlings. We made this comparison to help the fisheries community determine which of the two hatchery rearing strategies produced fish that were more similar to natural subyearlings. We compared the following attributes of postrelease performance (1) detection dates at dams, (2) detections during the implementation of summer spill, (3) travel times, (4) migrant sizes, and (5) the joint probability of migration and survival. Overall, we found that postrelease performance was more similar between natural and surrogate subyearlings than between natural and production subyearlings. Further, the similarity between natural and surrogate subyearlings was greater in 2006 than in 2005, partly as the result of changes in incubation and early rearing practices we recommended based on 2005 results.« less

Inverse Modeling Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Aided by Adaptive Stochastic Collocation Method with Transformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, D.; Liao, Q.

2016-12-01

The Bayesian inference provides a convenient framework to solve statistical inverse problems. In this method, the parameters to be identified are treated as random variables. The prior knowledge, the system nonlinearity, and the measurement errors can be directly incorporated in the posterior probability density function (PDF) of the parameters. The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is a powerful tool to generate samples from the posterior PDF. However, since the MCMC usually requires thousands or even millions of forward simulations, it can be a computationally intensive endeavor, particularly when faced with large-scale flow and transport models. To address this issue, we construct a surrogate system for the model responses in the form of polynomials by the stochastic collocation method. In addition, we employ interpolation based on the nested sparse grids and takes into account the different importance of the parameters, under the condition of high random dimensions in the stochastic space. Furthermore, in case of low regularity such as discontinuous or unsmooth relation between the input parameters and the output responses, we introduce an additional transform process to improve the accuracy of the surrogate model. Once we build the surrogate system, we may evaluate the likelihood with very little computational cost. We analyzed the convergence rate of the forward solution and the surrogate posterior by Kullback-Leibler divergence, which quantifies the difference between probability distributions. The fast convergence of the forward solution implies fast convergence of the surrogate posterior to the true posterior. We also tested the proposed algorithm on water-flooding two-phase flow reservoir examples. The posterior PDF calculated from a very long chain with direct forward simulation is assumed to be accurate. The posterior PDF calculated using the surrogate model is in reasonable agreement with the reference, revealing a great improvement in terms of computational efficiency.

An adaptive sparse-grid high-order stochastic collocation method for Bayesian inference in groundwater reactive transport modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Guannan; Lu, Dan; Ye, Ming; Gunzburger, Max; Webster, Clayton

2013-10-01

Bayesian analysis has become vital to uncertainty quantification in groundwater modeling, but its application has been hindered by the computational cost associated with numerous model executions required by exploring the posterior probability density function (PPDF) of model parameters. This is particularly the case when the PPDF is estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. In this study, a new approach is developed to improve the computational efficiency of Bayesian inference by constructing a surrogate of the PPDF, using an adaptive sparse-grid high-order stochastic collocation (aSG-hSC) method. Unlike previous works using first-order hierarchical basis, this paper utilizes a compactly supported higher-order hierarchical basis to construct the surrogate system, resulting in a significant reduction in the number of required model executions. In addition, using the hierarchical surplus as an error indicator allows locally adaptive refinement of sparse grids in the parameter space, which further improves computational efficiency. To efficiently build the surrogate system for the PPDF with multiple significant modes, optimization techniques are used to identify the modes, for which high-probability regions are defined and components of the aSG-hSC approximation are constructed. After the surrogate is determined, the PPDF can be evaluated by sampling the surrogate system directly without model execution, resulting in improved efficiency of the surrogate-based MCMC compared with conventional MCMC. The developed method is evaluated using two synthetic groundwater reactive transport models. The first example involves coupled linear reactions and demonstrates the accuracy of our high-order hierarchical basis approach in approximating high-dimensional posteriori distribution. The second example is highly nonlinear because of the reactions of uranium surface complexation, and demonstrates how the iterative aSG-hSC method is able to capture multimodal and non-Gaussian features of PPDF caused by model nonlinearity. Both experiments show that aSG-hSC is an effective and efficient tool for Bayesian inference.

VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUND DETERMINATIONS USING SURROGATE-BASED CORRECTION FOR METHOD AND MATRIX EFFECTS

EPA Science Inventory

The principal properties related to analyte recovery in a vacuum distillate are boiling point and relative volatility. The basis for selecting compounds to measure the relationship between these properties and recovery for a vacuum distillation is presented. Surrogates are incorp...

Bioaccessibility of metals in alloys: Evaluation of three surrogate biofluids

PubMed Central

Hillwalker, Wendy E.; Anderson, Kim A.

2014-01-01

Bioaccessibility in vitro tests measure the solubility of materials in surrogate biofluids. However, the lack of uniform methods and the effects of variable test parameters on material solubility limit interpretation. One aim of this study was to measure and compare bioaccessibility of selected economically important alloys and metals in surrogate physiologically based biofluids representing oral, inhalation and dermal exposures. A second aim was to experimentally test different biofluid formulations and residence times in vitro. A third aim was evaluation of dissolution behavior of alloys with in vitro lung and dermal biofluid surrogates. This study evaluated the bioaccessibility of sixteen elements in six alloys and 3 elemental/metal powders. We found that the alloys/metals, the chemical properties of the surrogate fluid, and residence time all had major impacts on metal solubility. The large variability of bioaccessibility indicates the relevancy of assessing alloys as toxicologically distinct relative to individual metals. PMID:24212234

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sen, Oishik, E-mail: oishik-sen@uiowa.edu; Gaul, Nicholas J., E-mail: nicholas-gaul@ramdosolutions.com; Choi, K.K., E-mail: kyung-choi@uiowa.edu

Macro-scale computations of shocked particulate flows require closure laws that model the exchange of momentum/energy between the fluid and particle phases. Closure laws are constructed in this work in the form of surrogate models derived from highly resolved mesoscale computations of shock-particle interactions. The mesoscale computations are performed to calculate the drag force on a cluster of particles for different values of Mach Number and particle volume fraction. Two Kriging-based methods, viz. the Dynamic Kriging Method (DKG) and the Modified Bayesian Kriging Method (MBKG) are evaluated for their ability to construct surrogate models with sparse data; i.e. using the leastmore » number of mesoscale simulations. It is shown that if the input data is noise-free, the DKG method converges monotonically; convergence is less robust in the presence of noise. The MBKG method converges monotonically even with noisy input data and is therefore more suitable for surrogate model construction from numerical experiments. This work is the first step towards a full multiscale modeling of interaction of shocked particle laden flows.« less

Material Compatibility for Historic Items Decontaminated with ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report This project continued research of the effects of decontamination methods for biological agents on materials identified as representative of types of irreplaceable objects or works of art found in museums and/or archive settings. In the previous research, surrogate materials were checked for compatibility with four decontamination methods: chlorine dioxide, hydrogen peroxide vapor, methyl bromide, and ethylene oxide gas. This project investigated the effects of gamma irradiation, which has also been shown to be an effective decontamination method for biological agents, on the surrogate test materials.

Conflict Management Strategies in the ICU Differ Between Palliative Care Specialists and Intensivists.

PubMed

Chiarchiaro, Jared; White, Douglas B; Ernecoff, Natalie C; Buddadhumaruk, Praewpannarai; Schuster, Rachel A; Arnold, Robert M

2016-05-01

Conflict is common between physicians and surrogate decision makers around end-of-life care in ICU. Involving experts in conflict management improve outcomes, but little is known about what differences in conflict management styles may explain the benefit. We used simulation to examine potential differences in how palliative care specialists manage conflict with surrogates about end-of-life treatment decisions in ICUs compared with intensivists. Subjects participated in a high-fidelity simulation of conflict with a surrogate in an ICU. In this simulation, a medical actor portrayed a surrogate decision maker during an ICU family meeting who refuses to follow an advance directive that clearly declines advanced life-sustaining therapies. We audiorecorded the simulation encounters and applied a coding framework to quantify conflict management behaviors, which was organized into two categories: task-focused communication and relationship building. We used negative binomial modeling to determine whether there were differences between palliative care specialists' and intensivists' use of task-focused communication and relationship building. Single academic medical center ICU. Palliative care specialists and intensivists. None. We enrolled 11 palliative care specialists and 25 intensivists. The palliative care specialists were all attending physicians. The intensivist group consisted of 11 attending physicians, 9 pulmonary and critical care fellows, and 5 internal medicine residents rotating in the ICU. We excluded five residents from the primary analysis in order to reduce confounding due to training level. Physicians' mean age was 37 years with a mean of 8 years in practice. Palliative care specialists used 55% fewer task-focused communication statements (incidence rate ratio, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.36-0.83; p = 0.005) and 48% more relationship-building statements (incidence rate ratio, 1.48; 95% CI, 0.89-2.46; p = 0.13) compared with intensivists. We found that palliative care specialists engage in less task-focused communication when managing conflict with surrogates compared with intensivists. These differences may help explain the benefit of palliative care involvement in conflict and could be the focus of interventions to improve clinicians' conflict resolution skills.

Conflict Management Strategies in the ICU Differ Between Palliative Care Specialists and Intensivists

PubMed Central

Chiarchiaro, Jared; White, Douglas B.; Ernecoff, Natalie C.; Buddadhumaruk, Praewpannarai; Schuster, Rachel A.; Arnold, Robert M.

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE Conflict is common between physicians and surrogate decision makers around end-of-life care in intensive care units (ICU). Involving experts in conflict management improve outcomes, but little is known about what differences in conflict management styles may explain the benefit. We used simulation to examine potential differences in how palliative care specialists manage conflict with surrogates about end-of-life treatment decisions in ICUs compared with intensivists. DESIGN Subjects participated in a high-fidelity simulation of conflict with a surrogate in an ICU. In this simulation, a medical actor portrayed a surrogate decision maker during an ICU family meeting who refuses to follow an advance directive that clearly declines advanced life-sustaining therapies. We audio-recorded the simulation encounters and applied a coding framework to quantify conflict management behaviors, which was organized into two categories: task-focused communication and relationship-building. We used negative binomial modeling to determine whether there were differences between palliative care specialists’ and intensivists’ use of task-focused communication and relationship building. SETTING Single academic medical center ICU PARTICIPANTS Palliative care specialists and intensivists INTERVENTIONS none MEASUREMENTS and MAIN RESULTS We enrolled 11 palliative care specialists and 25 intensivists. The palliative care specialists were all attending physicians. The intensivist group consisted of 11 attending physicians, 9 pulmonary and critical care fellows, and 5 internal medicine residents rotating in the intensive care unit. We excluded the 5 residents from the primary analysis in order to reduce confounding due to training level. Physicians’ mean age was 37 years with a mean of 8 years in practice. Palliative care specialists used 55% fewer task-focused communication statements (Incidence Rate Ratio 0.55, 95% CI 0.36–0.83, p= 0.005) and 48% more relationship building statements (Incidence Rate Ratio 1.48, 95% CI 0.89–2.46, p=0.13) compared with intensivists. CONCLUSIONS We found that palliative care specialists engage in less task-focused communication when managing conflict with surrogates compared to intensivists. These differences may help explain the benefit of palliative care involvement in conflict and could be the focus of interventions to improve clinicians’ conflict resolution skills. PMID:26765500

Communication Quality Predicts Psychological Well-Being and Satisfaction in Family Surrogates of Hospitalized Older Adults: An Observational Study.

PubMed

Torke, Alexia M; Callahan, Christopher M; Sachs, Greg A; Wocial, Lucia D; Helft, Paul R; Monahan, Patrick O; Slaven, James E; Montz, Kianna; Burke, Emily S; Inger, Lev

2018-03-01

Many hospitalized older adults require family surrogates to make decisions, but surrogates may perceive that the quality of medical decisions is low and may have poor psychological outcomes after the patient's hospitalization. To determine the relationship between communication quality and high-quality medical decisions, psychological well-being, and satisfaction for surrogates of hospitalized older adults. Observational study at three hospitals in a Midwest metropolitan area. Hospitalized older adults (65+ years) admitted to medicine and medical intensive care units who were unable to make medical decisions, and their family surrogates. Among 799 eligible dyads, 364 (45.6%) completed the study. Communication was assessed during hospitalization using the information and emotional support subscales of the Family Inpatient Communication Survey. Decision quality was assessed with the Decisional Conflict Scale. Outcomes assessed at baseline and 4-6 weeks post-discharge included anxiety (Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7), depression (Patient Health Questionnaire-9), post-traumatic stress (Impact of Event Scale-Revised), and satisfaction (Hospital Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems). The mean patient age was 81.9 years (SD 8.32); 62% were women, and 28% African American. Among surrogates, 67% were adult children. Six to eight weeks post-discharge, 22.6% of surrogates reported anxiety (11.3% moderate-severe anxiety); 29% reported depression, (14.0% moderate-severe), and 14.6% had high levels of post-traumatic stress. Emotional support was associated with lower odds of anxiety (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.65, 95% CI 0.50, 0.85) and depression (AOR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.65, 0.99) at follow-up. In multivariable linear regression, emotional support was associated with lower post-traumatic stress (β = -0.30, p = 0.003) and higher decision quality (β = -0.44, p < 0.0001). Information was associated with higher post-traumatic stress (β = 0.23, p = 0.022) but also higher satisfaction (β = 0.61, p < 0.001). Emotional support of hospital surrogates is consistently associated with better psychological outcomes and decision quality, suggesting an opportunity to improve decision making and well-being.

The psychological well-being and prenatal bonding of gestational surrogates

PubMed Central

Lamba, N; Jadva, V; Kadam, K; Golombok, S

2018-01-01

Abstract STUDY QUESTION How does the psychological well-being and prenatal bonding of Indian surrogates differ from a comparison group of mothers? SUMMARY ANSWER Surrogates had higher levels of depression during pregnancy and post-birth, displayed lower emotional connection with the unborn baby, and greater care towards the healthy growth of the foetus, than the comparison group of mothers. WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN Studies in the West have found that surrogates do not suffer long-term psychological harm. One study has shown that surrogates bond less with the foetus than expectant mothers. STUDY, DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION This study uses a prospective, longitudinal and cross-sectional design. Surrogates and a matched group of expectant mothers were seen twice, during 4–9 months of pregnancy and 4–6 months after the birth. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS Semi-structured interviews and standardized questionnaires were administered to 50 surrogates and 69 expectant mothers during pregnancy and 45 surrogates and 49 expectant mothers post-birth. All gestational surrogates were hosting pregnancies for international intended parents. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE Surrogates had higher levels of depression compared to the comparison group of mothers, during pregnancy and post-birth (P < 0.02). Low social support during pregnancy, hiding surrogacy and criticism from others were found to be predictive of higher depression in surrogates post-birth (P < 0.05). Regarding prenatal bonding, surrogates interacted less with and thought less about the foetus but adopted better eating habits and were more likely to avoid unhealthy practices during pregnancy, than expectant mothers (P < 0.05). No associations were found between greater prenatal bonding and greater psychological distress during pregnancy or after relinquishment. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION All surrogates were recruited from one clinic in Mumbai, and thus the representativeness of this sample is not known. Also, the possibility of socially desirable responding from surrogates cannot be ruled out. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS As this is the first study of the psychological well-being of surrogates in low-income countries, the findings have important policy implications. Providing support and counselling to surrogates, especially during pregnancy, may alleviate some of the psychological problems faced by surrogates. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This study was supported by the Wellcome Trust [097857/Z/11/Z] and Nehru Trust, Cambridge. K.K. is the Medical Director of Corion Fertility Clinic. All other authors have no conflict of interest to declare. PMID:29566176

Uncertainty in the Bayesian meta-analysis of normally distributed surrogate endpoints

PubMed Central

Thompson, John R; Spata, Enti; Abrams, Keith R

2015-01-01

We investigate the effect of the choice of parameterisation of meta-analytic models and related uncertainty on the validation of surrogate endpoints. Different meta-analytical approaches take into account different levels of uncertainty which may impact on the accuracy of the predictions of treatment effect on the target outcome from the treatment effect on a surrogate endpoint obtained from these models. A range of Bayesian as well as frequentist meta-analytical methods are implemented using illustrative examples in relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis, where the treatment effect on disability worsening is the primary outcome of interest in healthcare evaluation, while the effect on relapse rate is considered as a potential surrogate to the effect on disability progression, and in gastric cancer, where the disease-free survival has been shown to be a good surrogate endpoint to the overall survival. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to assess the impact of distributional assumptions on the predictions. Also, sensitivity to modelling assumptions and performance of the models were investigated by simulation. Although different methods can predict mean true outcome almost equally well, inclusion of uncertainty around all relevant parameters of the model may lead to less certain and hence more conservative predictions. When investigating endpoints as candidate surrogate outcomes, a careful choice of the meta-analytical approach has to be made. Models underestimating the uncertainty of available evidence may lead to overoptimistic predictions which can then have an effect on decisions made based on such predictions. PMID:26271918

Uncertainty in the Bayesian meta-analysis of normally distributed surrogate endpoints.

PubMed

Bujkiewicz, Sylwia; Thompson, John R; Spata, Enti; Abrams, Keith R

2017-10-01

We investigate the effect of the choice of parameterisation of meta-analytic models and related uncertainty on the validation of surrogate endpoints. Different meta-analytical approaches take into account different levels of uncertainty which may impact on the accuracy of the predictions of treatment effect on the target outcome from the treatment effect on a surrogate endpoint obtained from these models. A range of Bayesian as well as frequentist meta-analytical methods are implemented using illustrative examples in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, where the treatment effect on disability worsening is the primary outcome of interest in healthcare evaluation, while the effect on relapse rate is considered as a potential surrogate to the effect on disability progression, and in gastric cancer, where the disease-free survival has been shown to be a good surrogate endpoint to the overall survival. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to assess the impact of distributional assumptions on the predictions. Also, sensitivity to modelling assumptions and performance of the models were investigated by simulation. Although different methods can predict mean true outcome almost equally well, inclusion of uncertainty around all relevant parameters of the model may lead to less certain and hence more conservative predictions. When investigating endpoints as candidate surrogate outcomes, a careful choice of the meta-analytical approach has to be made. Models underestimating the uncertainty of available evidence may lead to overoptimistic predictions which can then have an effect on decisions made based on such predictions.

Predicting trace organic compound attenuation by ozone oxidation: Development of indicator and surrogate models.

PubMed

Park, Minkyu; Anumol, Tarun; Daniels, Kevin D; Wu, Shimin; Ziska, Austin D; Snyder, Shane A

2017-08-01

Ozone oxidation has been demonstrated to be an effective treatment process for the attenuation of trace organic compounds (TOrCs); however, predicting TOrC attenuation by ozone processes is challenging in wastewaters. Since ozone is rapidly consumed, determining the exposure times of ozone and hydroxyl radical proves to be difficult. As direct potable reuse schemes continue to gain traction, there is an increasing need for the development of real-time monitoring strategies for TOrC abatement in ozone oxidation processes. Hence, this study is primarily aimed at developing indicator and surrogate models for the prediction of TOrC attenuation by ozone oxidation. To this end, the second-order kinetic equations with a second-phase R ct value (ratio of hydroxyl radical exposure to molecular ozone exposure) were used to calculate comparative kinetics of TOrC attenuation and the reduction of indicator and spectroscopic surrogate parameters, including UV absorbance at 254 nm (UVA 254 ) and total fluorescence (TF). The developed indicator model using meprobamate as an indicator compound and the surrogate models with UVA 254 and TF exhibited good predictive power for the attenuation of 13 kinetically distinct TOrCs in five filtered and unfiltered wastewater effluents (R 2 values > 0.8). This study is intended to help provide a guideline for the implementation of indicator/surrogate models for real-time monitoring of TOrC abatement with ozone processes and integrate them into a regulatory framework in water reuse. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ANALYSES OF FISH TISSUE BY VACUUM DISTILLATION/GAS CHROMATOGRAPHY/MASS SPECTROMETRY

EPA Science Inventory

The analyses of fish tissue using VD/GC/MS with surrogate-based matrix corrections is described. Techniques for equilibrating surrogate and analyte spikes with a tissue matrix are presented, and equilibrated spiked samples are used to document method performance. The removal of a...

Surrogate-based Analysis and Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Queipo, Nestor V.; Haftka, Raphael T.; Shyy, Wei; Goel, Tushar; Vaidyanathan, Raj; Tucker, P. Kevin

2005-01-01

A major challenge to the successful full-scale development of modem aerospace systems is to address competing objectives such as improved performance, reduced costs, and enhanced safety. Accurate, high-fidelity models are typically time consuming and computationally expensive. Furthermore, informed decisions should be made with an understanding of the impact (global sensitivity) of the design variables on the different objectives. In this context, the so-called surrogate-based approach for analysis and optimization can play a very valuable role. The surrogates are constructed using data drawn from high-fidelity models, and provide fast approximations of the objectives and constraints at new design points, thereby making sensitivity and optimization studies feasible. This paper provides a comprehensive discussion of the fundamental issues that arise in surrogate-based analysis and optimization (SBAO), highlighting concepts, methods, techniques, as well as practical implications. The issues addressed include the selection of the loss function and regularization criteria for constructing the surrogates, design of experiments, surrogate selection and construction, sensitivity analysis, convergence, and optimization. The multi-objective optimal design of a liquid rocket injector is presented to highlight the state of the art and to help guide future efforts.

Surrogate utility estimation by long-term partners and unfamiliar dyads.

PubMed

Tunney, Richard J; Ziegler, Fenja V

2015-01-01

To what extent are people able to make predictions about other people's preferences and values?We report two experiments that present a novel method assessing some of the basic processes in surrogate decision-making, namely surrogate-utility estimation. In each experiment participants formed dyads who were asked to assign utilities to health related items and commodity items, and to predict their partner's utility judgments for the same items. In experiment one we showed that older adults in long-term relationships were able to accurately predict their partner's wishes. In experiment two we showed that younger adults who were relatively unfamiliar with one another were also able to predict other people's wishes. Crucially we demonstrated that these judgments were accurate even after partialling out each participant's own preferences indicating that in order to make surrogate utility estimations people engage in perspective-taking rather than simple anchoring and adjustment, suggesting that utility estimation is not the cause of inaccuracy in surrogate decision-making. The data and implications are discussed with respect to theories of surrogate decision-making.

Efficient SRAM yield optimization with mixture surrogate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhongjian, Jiang; Zuochang, Ye; Yan, Wang

2016-12-01

Largely repeated cells such as SRAM cells usually require extremely low failure-rate to ensure a moderate chi yield. Though fast Monte Carlo methods such as importance sampling and its variants can be used for yield estimation, they are still very expensive if one needs to perform optimization based on such estimations. Typically the process of yield calculation requires a lot of SPICE simulation. The circuit SPICE simulation analysis accounted for the largest proportion of time in the process yield calculation. In the paper, a new method is proposed to address this issue. The key idea is to establish an efficient mixture surrogate model. The surrogate model is based on the design variables and process variables. This model construction method is based on the SPICE simulation to get a certain amount of sample points, these points are trained for mixture surrogate model by the lasso algorithm. Experimental results show that the proposed model is able to calculate accurate yield successfully and it brings significant speed ups to the calculation of failure rate. Based on the model, we made a further accelerated algorithm to further enhance the speed of the yield calculation. It is suitable for high-dimensional process variables and multi-performance applications.

Advance Care Planning Beyond Advance Directives: Perspectives from Patients and Surrogates

PubMed Central

McMahan, Ryan; Knight, Sara J.; Fried, Terri R.; Sudore, Rebecca L.

2014-01-01

Context Advance care planning (ACP) has focused on documenting life-sustaining treatment preferences in advance directives (ADs). ADs alone may be insufficient to prepare diverse patients and surrogates for complex medical decisions. Objectives To understand what steps best prepare patients and surrogates for decision making. Methods We conducted 13 English/Spanish focus groups with participants from a Veterans Affairs and county hospital and the community. Seven groups included patients (n=38) aged ≥65 years, who reported making serious medical decisions. Six separate groups included surrogates (n=31), aged ≥18 years, who made decisions for others. Semi-structured focus groups asked what activities best prepared participants for decision making. Two investigators independently coded data and performed thematic content analysis. Disputes were resolved by consensus. Results Mean±SD patient age was 78±8 years and 61% were non-white. Mean±SD surrogate age was 57±10 years and 91% were non-white. Qualitative analysis identified four overarching themes about how to best prepare for decision making: 1) identify values based on past experiences and quality of life, 2) choose surrogates wisely and verify they understand their role, 3) decide whether to grant leeway in surrogate decision making, and 4) inform other family and friends of one's wishes to prevent conflict. Conclusion Beyond ADs, patients and surrogates recommend several additional steps to prepare for medical decision making including using past experiences to identify values, verifying the surrogate understands their role, deciding whether to grant surrogates leeway, and informing other family and friends of one's wishes. Future ACP interventions should consider incorporating these additional ACP activities. PMID:23200188

Mass diffusion coefficient measurement for vitreous humor using FEM and MRI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rattanakijsuntorn, Komsan; Penkova, Anita; Sadha, Satwindar S.

2018-01-01

In early studies, the ‘contour method’ for determining the diffusion coefficient of the vitreous humor was developed. This technique relied on careful injection of an MRI contrast agent (surrogate drug) into the vitreous humor of fresh bovine eyes, and tracking the contours of the contrast agent in time. In addition, an analytical solution was developed for the theoretical contours built on point source model for the injected surrogate drug. The match between theoretical and experimental contours as a least square fit, while floating the diffusion coefficient, led to the value of the diffusion coefficient. This method had its limitation that the initial injection of the surrogate had to be spherical or ellipsoidal because of the analytical result based on the point-source model. With a new finite element model for the analysis in this study, the technique is much less restrictive and handles irregular shapes of the initial bolus. The fresh bovine eyes were used for drug diffusion study in the vitreous and three contrast agents of different molecular masses: gadolinium-diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid (Gd-DTPA, 938 Da), non-ionic gadoteridol (Prohance, 559 Da), and bovine albumin conjugated with gadolinium (Galbumin, 74 kDa) were used as drug surrogates to visualize the diffusion process by MRI. The 3D finite element model was developed to determine the diffusion coefficients of these surrogates with the images from MRI. This method can be used for other types of bioporous media provided the concentration profile can be visualized (by methods such as MRI or fluorescence).

Convergence analysis of surrogate-based methods for Bayesian inverse problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Liang; Zhang, Yuan-Xiang

2017-12-01

The major challenges in the Bayesian inverse problems arise from the need for repeated evaluations of the forward model, as required by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for posterior sampling. Many attempts at accelerating Bayesian inference have relied on surrogates for the forward model, typically constructed through repeated forward simulations that are performed in an offline phase. Although such approaches can be quite effective at reducing computation cost, there has been little analysis of the approximation on posterior inference. In this work, we prove error bounds on the Kullback-Leibler (KL) distance between the true posterior distribution and the approximation based on surrogate models. Our rigorous error analysis show that if the forward model approximation converges at certain rate in the prior-weighted L 2 norm, then the posterior distribution generated by the approximation converges to the true posterior at least two times faster in the KL sense. The error bound on the Hellinger distance is also provided. To provide concrete examples focusing on the use of the surrogate model based methods, we present an efficient technique for constructing stochastic surrogate models to accelerate the Bayesian inference approach. The Christoffel least squares algorithms, based on generalized polynomial chaos, are used to construct a polynomial approximation of the forward solution over the support of the prior distribution. The numerical strategy and the predicted convergence rates are then demonstrated on the nonlinear inverse problems, involving the inference of parameters appearing in partial differential equations.

Acoustic signal propagation and measurement in natural stream channels for application to surrogate bed load measurements: Halfmoon Creek, Colorado

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Monitoring sediment-generated noise using submerged hydrophones is a surrogate method for measuring bed load transport in streams with the potential for improving estimates of bed load transport through widespread, inexpensive monitoring. Understanding acoustic signal propagation in natural stream e...

I don't want to be the one saying 'we should just let him die': intrapersonal tensions experienced by surrogate decision makers in the ICU.

PubMed

Schenker, Yael; Crowley-Matoka, Megan; Dohan, Daniel; Tiver, Greer A; Arnold, Robert M; White, Douglas B

2012-12-01

Although numerous studies have addressed external factors associated with difficulty in surrogate decision making, intrapersonal sources of tension are an important element of decision making that have received little attention. To characterize key intrapersonal tensions experienced by surrogate decision makers in the intensive care unit (ICU), and explore associated coping strategies. Qualitative interview study. Thirty surrogates from five ICUs at two hospitals in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, who were actively involved in making life-sustaining treatment decisions for a critically ill loved one. We conducted in-depth, semi-structured interviews with surrogates, focused on intrapersonal tensions, role challenges, and coping strategies. We analyzed transcripts using constant comparative methods. Surrogates experience significant emotional conflict between the desire to act in accordance with their loved one's values and 1) not wanting to feel responsible for a loved one's death, 2) a desire to pursue any chance of recovery, and 3) the need to preserve family well-being. Associated coping strategies included 1) recalling previous discussions with a loved one, 2) sharing decisions with family members, 3) delaying or deferring decision making, 4) spiritual/religious practices, and 5) story-telling. Surrogates' struggle to reconcile personal and family emotional needs with their loved ones' wishes, and utilize common coping strategies to combat intrapersonal tensions. These data suggest reasons surrogates may struggle to follow a strict substituted judgment standard. They also suggest ways clinicians may improve decision making, including attending to surrogates' emotions, facilitating family decision making, and eliciting potential emotional conflicts and spiritual needs.

Evaluating principal surrogate endpoints with time-to-event data accounting for time-varying treatment efficacy.

PubMed

Gabriel, Erin E; Gilbert, Peter B

2014-04-01

Principal surrogate (PS) endpoints are relatively inexpensive and easy to measure study outcomes that can be used to reliably predict treatment effects on clinical endpoints of interest. Few statistical methods for assessing the validity of potential PSs utilize time-to-event clinical endpoint information and to our knowledge none allow for the characterization of time-varying treatment effects. We introduce the time-dependent and surrogate-dependent treatment efficacy curve, ${\\mathrm {TE}}(t|s)$, and a new augmented trial design for assessing the quality of a biomarker as a PS. We propose a novel Weibull model and an estimated maximum likelihood method for estimation of the ${\\mathrm {TE}}(t|s)$ curve. We describe the operating characteristics of our methods via simulations. We analyze data from the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial, in which we find evidence of a biomarker with value as a PS.

Trends in Infectious Diseases and the Male to Female Ratio: Possible Clues to Changes in Behavior among Men Who Have Sex with Men

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beltrami, John F.; Shouse, R. Luke; Blake, Paul A.

2005-01-01

Men who have sex with men (MSM) are a priority population for HIV care and prevention programs. This report describes HIV and other sexually transmitted disease (STD) trends among MSM in metropolitan Atlanta by analyzing nine databases. We describe the use of the male-to-female (M:F) ratio, a surrogate marker for MSM in databases without…

A Conceptual Model of the Role of Communication in Surrogate Decision Making for Hospitalized Adults

PubMed Central

Torke, Alexia M.; Petronio, Sandra; Sachs, Greg A.; Helft, Paul R.; Purnell, Christianna

2011-01-01

Objective To build a conceptual model of the role of communication in decision making, based on literature from medicine, communication studies and medical ethics. Methods We propose a model and describe each construct in detail. We review what is known about interpersonal and patient-physician communication, describe literature about surrogate-clinician communication, and discuss implications for our developing model. Results The communication literature proposes two major elements of interpersonal communication: information processing and relationship building. These elements are composed of constructs such as information disclosure and emotional support that are likely to be relevant to decision making. We propose these elements of communication impact decision making, which in turn affects outcomes for both patients and surrogates. Decision making quality may also mediate the relationship between communication and outcomes. Conclusion Although many elements of the model have been studied in relation to patient-clinician communication, there is limited data about surrogate decision making. There is evidence of high surrogate distress associated with decision making that may be alleviated by communication–focused interventions. More research is needed to test the relationships proposed in the model. Practice Implications Good communication with surrogates may improve both the quality of medical decisions and outcomes for the patient and surrogate. PMID:21889865

Mass spectrometric measurement of urinary kynurenine-to-tryptophan ratio in children with and without urinary tract infection.

PubMed

Yarbrough, Melanie L; Briden, Kelleigh E; Mitsios, John V; Weindel, Annette L; Terrill, Cindy M; Hunstad, David A; Dietzen, Dennis J

2018-04-19

Indoleamine-2,3-dioxygenase (IDO) catalyzes the first step of tryptophan (Trp) catabolism, yielding kynurenine (Kyn) metabolites. The kynurenine-to-tryptophan (K/T) ratio is used as a surrogate for biological IDO enzyme activity. IDO expression is increased during Escherichia coli urinary tract infection (UTI). Thus, our objective was to develop a method for measurement of Kyn/Trp ratio in human blood and urine and evaluate its use as a biomarker of UTI. A mass spectrometric method was developed to measure Trp and Kyn in serum and urine specimens. The method was applied to clinical urine specimens from symptomatic pediatric patients with laboratory-confirmed UTI or other acute conditions and from healthy controls. The liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) method was linear to 500 μmol/L for both Trp and Kyn. Imprecision ranged from 5 to 15% for Trp and 6-20% for Kyn. Analytical recoveries of Trp and Kyn ranged from 96 to 119% in serum and 90-97% in urine. No correlation was found between the K/T ratio and circulating IDO mass (r = 0.110) in serum. Urinary Kyn and Trp in the pediatric test cohort demonstrated elevations in the K/T ratio in symptomatic patients with UTI (median 13.08) and without UTI (median 14.38) compared to healthy controls (median 4.93; p < 0.001 for both comparisons). No significant difference in K/T ratio was noted between symptomatic patients with and without UTI (p = 0.84). Measurement of Trp and Kyn by LC-MS/MS is accurate and precise in serum and urine specimens. While urinary K/T ratio is not a specific biomarker for UTI, it may represent a general indicator of a systemic inflammatory process. Copyright © 2018 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tri-reforming of surrogate blogs over Ni/Mg/ceria-zirconia/alumina pellet catalysts

DOE PAGES

Zhao, Xianhui; Ngo, Huong T.; Walker, Devin M.; ...

2018-01-23

The performance of catalytic tri-reforming under industrially relevant situations (e.g., pellet catalysts, pressurized reactor) was investigated using surrogate biogas as the feedstock. Tri-reforming using Ni/Mg/Ce 0.6Zr 0.4O 2/Al 2O 3 pellet catalysts was studied in a bench scale fixed-bed reactor. The feed molar ratio for CH 4: CO 2: air was fixed as 1.0: 0.70: 0.95. The effects of temperature (800 – 860 °C), pressure (1 – 6 bar), and H 2O/CH 4 molar feed ratio (0.23 – 0.65) were examined. Pressure has substantial impact on the reaction and transport rates and equilibrium conversions, making it a key variable. Atmore » 860 °C, CO 2 conversion increased from 4 to 61% and H 2/CO molar ratio decreased from 2.0 to 1.1 as the pressure changed from 1 to 6 bar. CO 2 conversion and H 2/CO molar ratio were also influenced by the temperature and H 2O/CH 4 molar ratio. At 3 bar, CO 2 conversion varied between 4 and 43% and the H 2/CO molar ratio varied between 1.2 and 1.9 as the temperature changed from 800 to 860 °C. At 3 bar and 860 °C, CO 2 conversion decreased from 35 to 8% and H 2/CO molar ratio increased from 1.7 to 2.4 when the H 2O/CH 4 molar ratio was increased from 0.23 to 0.65. This work demonstrates that the tri-reforming technology is feasible for converting biogas under scaled-up conditions in a fixed-bed reactor.« less

Best Practicable Aggregation of Species: a step forward for species surrogacy in environmental assessment and monitoring

PubMed Central

Bevilacqua, Stanislao; Claudet, Joachim; Terlizzi, Antonio

2013-01-01

The available taxonomic expertise and knowledge of species is still inadequate to cope with the urgent need for cost-effective methods to quantifying community response to natural and anthropogenic drivers of change. So far, the mainstream approach to overcome these impediments has focused on using higher taxa as surrogates for species. However, the use of such taxonomic surrogates often limits inferences about the causality of community patterns, which in turn is essential for effective environmental management strategies. Here, we propose an alternative approach to species surrogacy, the “Best Practicable Aggregation of Species” (BestAgg), in which surrogates exulate from fixed taxonomic schemes. The approach uses null models from random aggregations of species to minimizing the number of surrogates without causing significant losses of information on community patterns. Surrogate types are then selected in order to maximize ecological information. We applied the approach to real case studies on natural and human-driven gradients from marine benthic communities. Outcomes from BestAgg were also compared with those obtained using classic taxonomic surrogates. Results showed that BestAgg surrogates are effective in detecting community changes. In contrast to classic taxonomic surrogates, BestAgg surrogates allow retaining significantly higher information on species-level community patterns than what is expected to occur by chance and a potential time saving during sample processing up to 25% higher. Our findings showed that BestAgg surrogates from a pilot study could be used successfully in similar environmental investigations in the same area, or for subsequent long-term monitoring programs. BestAgg is virtually applicable to any environmental context, allowing exploiting multiple surrogacy schemes beyond stagnant perspectives strictly relying on taxonomic relatedness among species. This prerogative is crucial to extend the concept of species surrogacy to ecological traits of species, thus leading to ecologically meaningful surrogates that, while cost effective in reflecting community patterns, may also contribute to unveil underlying processes. A specific R code for BestAgg is provided. PMID:24198939

Quantification of free and total desmosine and isodesmosine in human urine by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry: a comparison of the surrogate-analyte and the surrogate-matrix approach for quantitation.

PubMed

Ongay, Sara; Hendriks, Gert; Hermans, Jos; van den Berge, Maarten; ten Hacken, Nick H T; van de Merbel, Nico C; Bischoff, Rainer

2014-01-24

In spite of the data suggesting the potential of urinary desmosine (DES) and isodesmosine (IDS) as biomarkers for elevated lung elastic fiber turnover, further validation in large-scale studies of COPD populations, as well as the analysis of longitudinal samples is required. Validated analytical methods that allow the accurate and precise quantification of DES and IDS in human urine are mandatory in order to properly evaluate the outcome of such clinical studies. In this work, we present the development and full validation of two methods that allow DES and IDS measurement in human urine, one for the free and one for the total (free+peptide-bound) forms. To this end we compared the two principle approaches that are used for the absolute quantification of endogenous compounds in biological samples, analysis against calibrators containing authentic analyte in surrogate matrix or containing surrogate analyte in authentic matrix. The validated methods were employed for the analysis of a small set of samples including healthy never-smokers, healthy current-smokers and COPD patients. This is the first time that the analysis of urinary free DES, free IDS, total DES, and total IDS has been fully validated and that the surrogate analyte approach has been evaluated for their quantification in biological samples. Results indicate that the presented methods have the necessary quality and level of validation to assess the potential of urinary DES and IDS levels as biomarkers for the progression of COPD and the effect of therapeutic interventions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An Integrated Optimization Design Method Based on Surrogate Modeling Applied to Diverging Duct Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanan, Lu; Qiushi, Li; Shaobin, Li

2016-12-01

This paper presents an integrated optimization design method in which uniform design, response surface methodology and genetic algorithm are used in combination. In detail, uniform design is used to select the experimental sampling points in the experimental domain and the system performance is evaluated by means of computational fluid dynamics to construct a database. After that, response surface methodology is employed to generate a surrogate mathematical model relating the optimization objective and the design variables. Subsequently, genetic algorithm is adopted and applied to the surrogate model to acquire the optimal solution in the case of satisfying some constraints. The method has been applied to the optimization design of an axisymmetric diverging duct, dealing with three design variables including one qualitative variable and two quantitative variables. The method of modeling and optimization design performs well in improving the duct aerodynamic performance and can be also applied to wider fields of mechanical design and seen as a useful tool for engineering designers, by reducing the design time and computation consumption.

Effectiveness of N95 respirators versus surgical masks in protecting health care workers from acute respiratory infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Smith, Jeffrey D.; MacDougall, Colin C.; Johnstone, Jennie; Copes, Ray A.; Schwartz, Brian; Garber, Gary E.

2016-01-01

Background: Conflicting recommendations exist related to which facial protection should be used by health care workers to prevent transmission of acute respiratory infections, including pandemic influenza. We performed a systematic review of both clinical and surrogate exposure data comparing N95 respirators and surgical masks for the prevention of transmissible acute respiratory infections. Methods: We searched various electronic databases and the grey literature for relevant studies published from January 1990 to December 2014. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs), cohort studies and case–control studies that included data on health care workers wearing N95 respirators and surgical masks to prevent acute respiratory infections were included in the meta-analysis. Surrogate exposure studies comparing N95 respirators and surgical masks using manikins or adult volunteers under simulated conditions were summarized separately. Outcomes from clinical studies were laboratory-confirmed respiratory infection, influenza-like illness and workplace absenteeism. Outcomes from surrogate exposure studies were filter penetration, face-seal leakage and total inward leakage. Results: We identified 6 clinical studies (3 RCTs, 1 cohort study and 2 case–control studies) and 23 surrogate exposure studies. In the meta-analysis of the clinical studies, we found no significant difference between N95 respirators and surgical masks in associated risk of (a) laboratory-confirmed respiratory infection (RCTs: odds ratio [OR] 0.89, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64–1.24; cohort study: OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.03–6.41; case–control studies: OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.25–3.36); (b) influenza-like illness (RCTs: OR 0.51, 95% CI 0.19–1.41); or (c) reported workplace absenteeism (RCT: OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.57–1.50). In the surrogate exposure studies, N95 respirators were associated with less filter penetration, less face-seal leakage and less total inward leakage under laboratory experimental conditions, compared with surgical masks. Interpretation: Although N95 respirators appeared to have a protective advantage over surgical masks in laboratory settings, our meta-analysis showed that there were insufficient data to determine definitively whether N95 respirators are superior to surgical masks in protecting health care workers against transmissible acute respiratory infections in clinical settings. PMID:26952529

Bioanalytical method development and validation for the determination of glycine in human cerebrospinal fluid by ion-pair reversed-phase liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry.

PubMed

Jiang, Jian; James, Christopher A; Wong, Philip

2016-09-05

A LC-MS/MS method has been developed and validated for the determination of glycine in human cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). The validated method used artificial cerebrospinal fluid as a surrogate matrix for calibration standards. The calibration curve range for the assay was 100-10,000ng/mL and (13)C2, (15)N-glycine was used as an internal standard (IS). Pre-validation experiments were performed to demonstrate parallelism with surrogate matrix and standard addition methods. The mean endogenous glycine concentration in a pooled human CSF determined on three days by using artificial CSF as a surrogate matrix and the method of standard addition was found to be 748±30.6 and 768±18.1ng/mL, respectively. A percentage difference of -2.6% indicated that artificial CSF could be used as a surrogate calibration matrix for the determination of glycine in human CSF. Quality control (QC) samples, except the lower limit of quantitation (LLOQ) QC and low QC samples, were prepared by spiking glycine into aliquots of pooled human CSF sample. The low QC sample was prepared from a separate pooled human CSF sample containing low endogenous glycine concentrations, while the LLOQ QC sample was prepared in artificial CSF. Standard addition was used extensively to evaluate matrix effects during validation. The validated method was used to determine the endogenous glycine concentrations in human CSF samples. Incurred sample reanalysis demonstrated reproducibility of the method. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

NURSE-LED INTERVENTION TO IMPROVE SURROGATE DECISION MAKING FOR PATIENTS WITH ADVANCED CRITICAL ILLNESS

PubMed Central

White, Douglas B.; Cua, Sarah Martin; Walk, Roberta; Pollice, Laura; Weissfeld, Lisa; Hong, Seoyeon; Landefeld, C. Seth; Arnold, Robert M.

2013-01-01

Background Problems persist with surrogate decision making in intensive care units, leading to distress for surrogates and treatment that may not reflect patients’ values. Objectives To assess the feasibility, acceptability, and perceived effectiveness of a multifaceted, nurse-led intervention to improve surrogate decision making in intensive care units. Study Design A single-center, single-arm, interventional study in which 35 surrogates and 15 physicians received the Four Supports Intervention, which involved incorporating a family support specialist into the intensive care team. That specialist maintained a longitudinal relationship with surrogates and provided emotional support, communication support, decision support, and anticipatory grief support. A mixed-methods approach was used to evaluate the intervention. Results The intervention was implemented successfully in all 15 patients, with a high level of completion of each component of the intervention. The family support specialist devoted a mean of 48 (SD 36) minutes per day to each clinician-patient-family triad. All participants reported that they would recommend the intervention to others. At least 90% of physicians and surrogates reported that the intervention (1) improved the quality and timeliness of communication, (2) facilitated discussion of the patient’s values and treatment preferences, and (3) improved the patient-centeredness of care. Conclusions The Four Supports Intervention is feasible, acceptable, and was perceived by physicians and surrogates to improve the quality of decision making and the patient-centeredness of care. A randomized trial is warranted to determine whether the intervention improves patient, family, and health system outcomes. PMID:23117903

Sobol‧ sensitivity analysis of NAPL-contaminated aquifer remediation process based on multiple surrogates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Jiannan; Lu, Wenxi

2014-06-01

Sobol‧ sensitivity analyses based on different surrogates were performed on a trichloroethylene (TCE)-contaminated aquifer to assess the sensitivity of the design variables of remediation duration, surfactant concentration and injection rates at four wells to remediation efficiency First, the surrogate models of a multi-phase flow simulation model were constructed by applying radial basis function artificial neural network (RBFANN) and Kriging methods, and the two models were then compared. Based on the developed surrogate models, the Sobol‧ method was used to calculate the sensitivity indices of the design variables which affect the remediation efficiency. The coefficient of determination (R2) and the mean square error (MSE) of these two surrogate models demonstrated that both models had acceptable approximation accuracy, furthermore, the approximation accuracy of the Kriging model was slightly better than that of the RBFANN model. Sobol‧ sensitivity analysis results demonstrated that the remediation duration was the most important variable influencing remediation efficiency, followed by rates of injection at wells 1 and 3, while rates of injection at wells 2 and 4 and the surfactant concentration had negligible influence on remediation efficiency. In addition, high-order sensitivity indices were all smaller than 0.01, which indicates that interaction effects of these six factors were practically insignificant. The proposed Sobol‧ sensitivity analysis based on surrogate is an effective tool for calculating sensitivity indices, because it shows the relative contribution of the design variables (individuals and interactions) to the output performance variability with a limited number of runs of a computationally expensive simulation model. The sensitivity analysis results lay a foundation for the optimal groundwater remediation process optimization.

Informed consent in medical decision-making in commercial gestational surrogacy: a mixed methods study in New Delhi, India.

PubMed

Tanderup, Malene; Reddy, Sunita; Patel, Tulsi; Nielsen, Birgitte Bruun

2015-05-01

To investigate ethical issues in informed consent for decisions regarding embryo transfer and fetal reduction in commercial gestational surrogacy. Mixed methods study employing observations, an interview-guide and semi-structured interviews. Fertility clinics and agencies in Delhi, India, between December 2011 and December 2012. Doctors providing conceptive technologies to commissioning couples and carrying out surrogacy procedures; surrogate mothers; agents functioning as links for surrogacy. Interviews using semi-structured interview guides were carried out among 20 doctors in 18 fertility clinics, five agents from four agencies and 14 surrogate mothers. Surrogate mothers were interviewed both individually and in the presence of doctors and agents. Data on socio-economic context and experiences among and between various actors in the surrogacy process were coded to identify categories of ethical concern. Numerical and grounded theory-oriented analyses were used. Informed consent, number of embryos transferred, fetal reduction, conflict of interest among the involved parties. None of the 14 surrogate mothers were able to explain the risks involved in embryo transfer and fetal reduction. The majority of the doctors took unilateral decisions about embryo transfer and fetal reduction. The commissioning parents were usually only indirectly involved. In the qualitative analysis, difficulties in explaining procedures, autonomy, self-payment of fertility treatment and conflicts of interest were the main themes. Clinical procedural decisions were primarily made by the doctors. Surrogate mothers were not adequately informed. There is a need for regulation on decision-making procedures to safeguard the interests of surrogate mothers. © 2015 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Chance-constrained multi-objective optimization of groundwater remediation design at DNAPLs-contaminated sites using a multi-algorithm genetically adaptive method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouyang, Qi; Lu, Wenxi; Hou, Zeyu; Zhang, Yu; Li, Shuai; Luo, Jiannan

2017-05-01

In this paper, a multi-algorithm genetically adaptive multi-objective (AMALGAM) method is proposed as a multi-objective optimization solver. It was implemented in the multi-objective optimization of a groundwater remediation design at sites contaminated by dense non-aqueous phase liquids. In this study, there were two objectives: minimization of the total remediation cost, and minimization of the remediation time. A non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) was adopted to compare with the proposed method. For efficiency, the time-consuming surfactant-enhanced aquifer remediation simulation model was replaced by a surrogate model constructed by a multi-gene genetic programming (MGGP) technique. Similarly, two other surrogate modeling methods-support vector regression (SVR) and Kriging (KRG)-were employed to make comparisons with MGGP. In addition, the surrogate-modeling uncertainty was incorporated in the optimization model by chance-constrained programming (CCP). The results showed that, for the problem considered in this study, (1) the solutions obtained by AMALGAM incurred less remediation cost and required less time than those of NSGA-II, indicating that AMALGAM outperformed NSGA-II. It was additionally shown that (2) the MGGP surrogate model was more accurate than SVR and KRG; and (3) the remediation cost and time increased with the confidence level, which can enable decision makers to make a suitable choice by considering the given budget, remediation time, and reliability.

Alternative methods to determine infectivity of Tulane virus: a surrogate for human norovirus

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Culturable animal caliciviruses are widely-used as surrogates for human norovirus (HuNoV), which can not replicate in cells. The infectivity of a culturable virus was traditionally determined by plaque assay and/or 50% tissue culture infectious dose (TCID50) assay, both of which are time-consuming ...

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo acceleration using surrogate functions with random bases.

PubMed

Zhang, Cheng; Shahbaba, Babak; Zhao, Hongkai

2017-11-01

For big data analysis, high computational cost for Bayesian methods often limits their applications in practice. In recent years, there have been many attempts to improve computational efficiency of Bayesian inference. Here we propose an efficient and scalable computational technique for a state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, namely, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. The key idea is to explore and exploit the structure and regularity in parameter space for the underlying probabilistic model to construct an effective approximation of its geometric properties. To this end, we build a surrogate function to approximate the target distribution using properly chosen random bases and an efficient optimization process. The resulting method provides a flexible, scalable, and efficient sampling algorithm, which converges to the correct target distribution. We show that by choosing the basis functions and optimization process differently, our method can be related to other approaches for the construction of surrogate functions such as generalized additive models or Gaussian process models. Experiments based on simulated and real data show that our approach leads to substantially more efficient sampling algorithms compared to existing state-of-the-art methods.

Statistical Validation of Surrogate Endpoints: Another Look at the Prentice Criterion and Other Criteria.

PubMed

Saraf, Sanatan; Mathew, Thomas; Roy, Anindya

2015-01-01

For the statistical validation of surrogate endpoints, an alternative formulation is proposed for testing Prentice's fourth criterion, under a bivariate normal model. In such a setup, the criterion involves inference concerning an appropriate regression parameter, and the criterion holds if the regression parameter is zero. Testing such a null hypothesis has been criticized in the literature since it can only be used to reject a poor surrogate, and not to validate a good surrogate. In order to circumvent this, an equivalence hypothesis is formulated for the regression parameter, namely the hypothesis that the parameter is equivalent to zero. Such an equivalence hypothesis is formulated as an alternative hypothesis, so that the surrogate endpoint is statistically validated when the null hypothesis is rejected. Confidence intervals for the regression parameter and tests for the equivalence hypothesis are proposed using bootstrap methods and small sample asymptotics, and their performances are numerically evaluated and recommendations are made. The choice of the equivalence margin is a regulatory issue that needs to be addressed. The proposed equivalence testing formulation is also adopted for other parameters that have been proposed in the literature on surrogate endpoint validation, namely, the relative effect and proportion explained.

Biodegradation of naphthenic acid surrogates by axenic cultures.

PubMed

Yue, Siqing; Ramsay, Bruce A; Ramsay, Juliana A

2015-07-01

This is the first study to report that bacteria from the genera Ochrobactrum, Brevundimonas and Bacillus can be isolated by growth on naphthenic acids (NAs) extracted from oil sands process water (OSPW). These pure cultures were screened for their ability to use a range of aliphatic, cyclic and aromatic NA surrogates in 96-well microtiter plates using water-soluble tetrazolium redox dyes (Biolog Redox Dye H) as the indicator of metabolic activity. Of the three cultures, Ochrobactrum showed most metabolic activity on the widest range of NA surrogates. Brevundomonas and especially Ochrobactrum had higher metabolic activity on polycyclic aromatic compounds than other classes of NA surrogates. Bacillus also oxidized a wide range of NA surrogates but not as well as Ochrobactrum. Using this method to characterize NA utilisation, one can identify which NAs or NA classes in OSPW are more readily degraded. Since aromatic NAs have been shown to have an estrogenic effect and polycyclic monoaromatic compounds have been suggested to pose the greatest environmental threat among the NAs, these bacterial genera may play an important role in detoxification of OSPW. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that bacteria belonging to the genera Ochrobactrum and Bacillus can also degrade surrogates of tricyclic NAs.

Patient Preferences and Surrogate Decision Making in Neuroscience Intensive Care Units

PubMed Central

Cai, Xuemei; Robinson, Jennifer; Muehlschlegel, Susanne; White, Douglas B.; Holloway, Robert G.; Sheth, Kevin N.; Fraenkel, Liana; Hwang, David Y.

2016-01-01

In the neuroscience intensive care unit (NICU), most patients lack the capacity to make their own preferences known. This fact leads to situations where surrogate decision makers must fill the role of the patient in terms of making preference-based treatment decisions, oftentimes in challenging situations where prognosis is uncertain. The neurointensivist has a large responsibility and role to play in this shared decision making process. This review covers how NICU patient preferences are determined through existing advance care documentation or surrogate decision makers and how the optimum roles of the physician and surrogate decision maker are addressed. We outline the process of reaching a shared decision between family and care team and describe a practice for conducting optimum family meetings based on studies of ICU families in crisis. We review challenges in the decision making process between surrogate decision makers and medical teams in neurocritical care settings, as well as methods to ameliorate conflicts. Ultimately, the goal of shared decision making is to increase knowledge amongst surrogates and care providers, decrease decisional conflict, promote realistic expectations and preference-centered treatment strategies, and lift the emotional burden on families of neurocritical care patients. PMID:25990137

Development of a Post-Intensive Care Unit Storytelling Intervention for Surrogates Involved in Decisions to Limit Life-Sustaining Treatment

PubMed Central

Schenker, Yael; Dew, Mary Amanda; Reynolds, Charles F.; Arnold, Robert M.; Tiver, Greer A.; Barnato, Amber E.

2014-01-01

Objectives Surrogates involved in decisions to limit life-sustaining treatment for a loved one in the intensive care unit (ICU) are at increased risk for adverse psychological outcomes lasting months to years after the ICU experience. Post-ICU interventions to reduce surrogate distress have not been developed. We sought to 1) describe a conceptual framework underlying the beneficial mental health effects of storytelling and 2) present formative work developing a storytelling intervention to reduce distress for recently bereaved surrogates. Methods An interdisciplinary team conceived the idea for a storytelling intervention based upon evidence from narrative theory that storytelling reduces distress from traumatic events through emotional disclosure, cognitive processing, and social connections. We developed an initial storytelling guide based upon this theory and the clinical perspectives of team members. We then conducted a case series with recently bereaved surrogates to iteratively test and modify the guide. Results The storytelling guide covered three key domains of the surrogate's experience of the patient's illness and death: antecedents, ICU experience, and aftermath. The facilitator focused on parts of the story that appeared to generate strong emotions and used non-judgmental statements to attend to these emotions. Between September 2012 and May 2013 we identified 28 eligible surrogates from 1 medical ICU and consented 20 for medical record review and recontact; 10 became eligible of whom 6 consented and completed the storytelling intervention. The single-session storytelling intervention lasted 40-92 minutes. All storytelling participants endorsed the intervention as acceptable, and 5 of 6 reported that it was helpful. Significance of Results Surrogate storytelling is an innovative and acceptable post-ICU intervention for recently bereaved surrogates and should be evaluated further. PMID:24524736

Intensivist-reported Facilitators and Barriers to Discussing Post-Discharge Outcomes with Intensive Care Unit Surrogates. A Qualitative Study.

PubMed

Turnbull, Alison E; Davis, Wesley E; Needham, Dale M; White, Douglas B; Eakin, Michelle N

2016-09-01

Intensive care unit (ICU) patients' expected post-discharge outcomes are rarely discussed in family meetings despite this information being centrally important to patients and their families. To characterize intensivist-identified barriers and facilitators to discussing post-discharge outcomes with surrogates of ICU patients. Qualitative study conducted via one-on-one, semistructured telephone interviews with 23 intensivists from 20 hospitals with accreditation council for graduate medical education-accredited critical care medicine programs in 16 states. A limited application of grounded theory methods was used to code transcribed interviews and identify themes and illustrative quotes. Intensivists reported tension between their professional responsibility to discuss likely functional outcomes versus uncertainty about their ability to predict those outcomes for an individual patient. They cited three main barriers as limiting their ability to conduct conversations about post-discharge outcomes with ICU surrogates: (1) incorrectly optimistic expectations for recovery among ICU surrogates, (2) having little or no contact with their patients after ICU discharge, and (3) minimal confidence applying existing outcomes research to individual patients. Despite these barriers, experience talking to ICU surrogates, seeing ICU survivors in the outpatient setting, and trusted research on functional outcomes were identified as important facilitators to discussing likely patient outcomes with surrogates. Intensivists generally welcomed questions from surrogates about post-discharge outcomes as opportunities to initiate conversations about prognosis and patient values. In this sample of intensivists from 20 academic hospitals, experience conducting conversations with surrogates and interactions with ICU survivors as outpatients were identified as facilitating discussion of expected post-discharge outcomes while optimistic surrogate expectations and prognostic uncertainty were barriers. There was tension between self-perceived ability to prognosticate and belief in a professional obligation to discuss patient outcomes.

Production of cloned NIBS (Nippon Institute for Biological Science) and α-1, 3-galactosyltransferase knockout MGH miniature pigs by somatic cell nuclear transfer using the NIBS breed as surrogates

PubMed Central

Shimatsu, Yoshiki; Yamada, Kazuhiko; Horii, Wataru; Hirakata, Atsushi; Sakamoto, Yuji; Waki, Shiori; Sano, Junichi; Saitoh, Toshiki; Sahara, Hisashi; Shimizu, Akira; Yazawa, Hajime; Sachs, David H.; Nunoya, Tetsuo

2013-01-01

Background Nuclear transfer (NT) technologies offer a means for producing the genetically modified pigs necessary to develop swine models for mechanistic studies of disease processes as well as to serve as organ donors for xenotransplantation. Most previous studies have used commercial pigs as surrogates. Method and Results In this study, we established a cloning technique for miniature pigs by somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT) using Nippon Institute for Biological Science (NIBS) miniature pigs as surrogates. Moreover, utilizing this technique, we have successfully produced an α-1, 3-galactosyltransferase knockout (GalT-KO) miniature swine. Fibroblasts procured from a NIBS miniature pig fetus were injected into 1312 enucleated oocytes. The cloned embryos were transferred to 11 surrogates of which five successfully delivered 13 cloned offspring; the production efficiency was 1.0% (13/1312). In a second experiment, lung fibroblasts obtained from neonatal GalT-KO MGH miniature swine were used as donor cells and 1953 cloned embryos were transferred to 12 surrogates. Six cloned offspring were born from five surrogates, a production efficiency of 0.3% (6/1953). Conclusions These results demonstrate successful establishment of a miniature pig cloning technique by SCNT using NIBS miniature pigs as surrogates. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of successful production of GalT-KO miniature swine using miniature swine surrogates. This technique could help to ensure a stable supply of the cloned pigs through the use of miniature pig surrogates and could expand production in countries with limited space or in facilities with special regulations such as specific pathogen-free or good laboratory practice. PMID:23581451

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Bo, E-mail: luboufl@gmail.com; Park, Justin C.; Fan, Qiyong

Purpose: Accurately localizing lung tumor localization is essential for high-precision radiation therapy techniques such as stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). Since direct monitoring of tumor motion is not always achievable due to the limitation of imaging modalities for treatment guidance, placement of fiducial markers on the patient’s body surface to act as a surrogate for tumor position prediction is a practical alternative for tracking lung tumor motion during SBRT treatments. In this work, the authors propose an innovative and robust model to solve the multimarker position optimization problem. The model is able to overcome the major drawbacks of the sparsemore » optimization approach (SOA) model. Methods: The principle-component-analysis (PCA) method was employed as the framework to build the authors’ statistical prediction model. The method can be divided into two stages. The first stage is to build the surrogate tumor matrix and calculate its eigenvalues and associated eigenvectors. The second stage is to determine the “best represented” columns of the eigenvector matrix obtained from stage one and subsequently acquire the optimal marker positions as well as numbers. Using 4-dimensional CT (4DCT) and breath hold CT imaging data, the PCA method was compared to the SOA method with respect to calculation time, average prediction accuracy, prediction stability, noise resistance, marker position consistency, and marker distribution. Results: The PCA and SOA methods which were both tested were on all 11 patients for a total of 130 cases including 4DCT and breath-hold CT scenarios. The maximum calculation time for the PCA method was less than 1 s with 64 752 surface points, whereas the average calculation time for the SOA method was over 12 min with 400 surface points. Overall, the tumor center position prediction errors were comparable between the two methods, and all were less than 1.5 mm. However, for the extreme scenarios (breath hold), the prediction errors for the PCA method were not only smaller, but were also more stable than for the SOA method. Results obtained by imposing a series of random noises to the surrogates indicated that the PCA method was much more noise resistant than the SOA method. The marker position consistency tests using various combinations of 4DCT phases to construct the surrogates suggested that the marker position predictions of the PCA method were more consistent than those of the SOA method, in spite of surrogate construction. Marker distribution tests indicated that greater than 80% of the calculated marker positions fell into the high cross correlation and high motion magnitude regions for both of the algorithms. Conclusions: The PCA model is an accurate, efficient, robust, and practical model for solving the multimarker position optimization problem to predict lung tumor motion during SBRT treatments. Due to its generality, PCA model can also be applied to other imaging guidance system whichever using surface motion as the surrogates.« less

Comparison of Alcian blue and total carbohydrate assays for quantitation of transparent exopolymer particles (TEP) in biofouling studies.

PubMed

Li, Xu; Skillman, Lucy; Li, Dan; Ela, Wendell P

2018-04-15

Transparent exopolymer particles (TEP) and their precursors are gel-like acidic polysaccharide particles. Both TEP precursors and TEP have been identified as causal factors in fouling of desalination and water treatment systems. For comparison between studies, it is important to accurately measure the amount and fouling capacity of both components. However, the accuracy and recovery of the currently used Alcian blue based TEP measurement of different surrogates and different size fractions are not well understood. In this study, we compared Alcian blue based TEP measurements with a total carbohydrate assay method. Three surrogates; xanthan gum, pectin and alginic acid; were evaluated at different salinities. Total carbohydrate concentrations of particulates (>0.4 μm) and their precursors (<0.4 μm, >10 kDa) varied depending on water salinity and method of recovery. As xanthan gum is the most frequently used surrogate in fouling studies, TEP concentration is expressed as xanthan gum equivalents (mg XG eq /L) in this study. At a salinity of 35 mg/L sea salt, total carbohydrate assays showed a much higher particulate TEP fraction for alginic acid (38%) compared to xanthan gum (9%) and pectin (12%). The concentrations of particulate TEP therefore may only represent ∼10% of the total mass; while precursor TEP represents ∼80% of the total TEP. This highlights the importance of reporting both particulate and precursor TEP for membrane biofouling studies. The calculated concentrations of TEP and their precursors in seawater samples are also highly dependent on type of surrogate and resulting calibration factor. A linear correlation between TEP recovery and calibration factor was demonstrated in this study for all three surrogates. The relative importance and accuracy of measurement method, particulate size, surrogate type, and recovery are described in detail in this study. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging–Guided versus Surrogate-Based Motion Tracking in Liver Radiation Therapy: A Prospective Comparative Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paganelli, Chiara, E-mail: chiara.paganelli@polimi.it; Seregni, Matteo; Fattori, Giovanni

Purpose: This study applied automatic feature detection on cine–magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) liver images in order to provide a prospective comparison between MRI-guided and surrogate-based tracking methods for motion-compensated liver radiation therapy. Methods and Materials: In a population of 30 subjects (5 volunteers plus 25 patients), 2 oblique sagittal slices were acquired across the liver at high temporal resolution. An algorithm based on scale invariant feature transform (SIFT) was used to extract and track multiple features throughout the image sequence. The position of abdominal markers was also measured directly from the image series, and the internal motion of each featuremore » was quantified through multiparametric analysis. Surrogate-based tumor tracking with a state-of-the-art external/internal correlation model was simulated. The geometrical tracking error was measured, and its correlation with external motion parameters was also investigated. Finally, the potential gain in tracking accuracy relying on MRI guidance was quantified as a function of the maximum allowed tracking error. Results: An average of 45 features was extracted for each subject across the whole liver. The multi-parametric motion analysis reported relevant inter- and intrasubject variability, highlighting the value of patient-specific and spatially-distributed measurements. Surrogate-based tracking errors (relative to the motion amplitude) were were in the range 7% to 23% (1.02-3.57mm) and were significantly influenced by external motion parameters. The gain of MRI guidance compared to surrogate-based motion tracking was larger than 30% in 50% of the subjects when considering a 1.5-mm tracking error tolerance. Conclusions: Automatic feature detection applied to cine-MRI allows detailed liver motion description to be obtained. Such information was used to quantify the performance of surrogate-based tracking methods and to provide a prospective comparison with respect to MRI-guided radiation therapy, which could support the definition of patient-specific optimal treatment strategies.« less

Triglyceride Glucose-Body Mass Index Is a Simple and Clinically Useful Surrogate Marker for Insulin Resistance in Nondiabetic Individuals.

PubMed

Er, Leay-Kiaw; Wu, Semon; Chou, Hsin-Hua; Hsu, Lung-An; Teng, Ming-Sheng; Sun, Yu-Chen; Ko, Yu-Lin

2016-01-01

Insulin resistance (IR) and the consequences of compensatory hyperinsulinemia are pathogenic factors for a set of metabolic abnormalities, which contribute to the development of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular diseases. We compared traditional lipid levels and ratios and combined them with fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels or adiposity status for determining their efficiency as independent risk factors for IR. We enrolled 511 Taiwanese individuals for the analysis. The clinical usefulness of various parameters--such as traditional lipid levels and ratios; visceral adiposity indicators, visceral adiposity index (VAI), and lipid accumulation product (LAP); the product of triglyceride (TG) and FPG (the TyG index); TyG with adiposity status (TyG-body mass index [BMI]) and TyG-waist circumference index [WC]); and adipokine levels and ratios--was analyzed to identify IR. For all lipid ratios, the TG/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio had the highest additional percentage of variation in the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR; 7.0% in total); for all variables of interest, TyG-BMI and leptin-adiponectin ratio (LAR) were strongly associated with HOMA-IR, with 16.6% and 23.2% of variability, respectively. A logistic regression analysis revealed similar patterns. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis indicated that TG/HDL-C was a more efficient IR discriminator than other lipid variables or ratios. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for VAI (0.734) and TyG (0.708) was larger than that for TG/HDL-C (0.707). TyG-BMI and LAR had the largest AUC (0.801 and 0.801, respectively). TyG-BMI is a simple, powerful, and clinically useful surrogate marker for early identification of IR.

Meta-analyses evaluating surrogate endpoints for overall survival in cancer randomized trials: A critical review.

PubMed

Savina, Marion; Gourgou, Sophie; Italiano, Antoine; Dinart, Derek; Rondeau, Virginie; Penel, Nicolas; Mathoulin-Pelissier, Simone; Bellera, Carine

2018-03-01

In cancer randomized controlled trials (RCT), alternative endpoints are increasingly being used in place of overall survival (OS) to reduce sample size, duration and cost of trials. It is necessary to ensure that these endpoints are valid surrogates for OS. Our aim was to identify meta-analyses that evaluated surrogate endpoints for OS and assess the strength of evidence for each meta-analysis (MA). We performed a systematic review to identify MA of cancer RCTs assessing surrogate endpoints for OS. We evaluated the strength of the association between the endpoints based on (i) the German Institute of Quality and Efficiency in Health Care guidelines and (ii) the Biomarker-Surrogate Evaluation Schema. Fifty-three publications reported on 164 MA, with heterogeneous statistical methods Disease-free survival (DFS) and progression-free survival (PFS) showed good surrogacy properties for OS in colorectal, lung and head and neck cancers. DFS was highly correlated to OS in gastric cancer. The statistical methodology used to evaluate surrogate endpoints requires consistency in order to facilitate the accurate interpretation of the results. Despite the limited number of clinical settings with validated surrogate endpoints for OS, there is evidence of good surrogacy for DFS and PFS in tumor types that account for a large proportion of cancer cases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

U.S. Geological Survey research on surrogate measurements for suspended sediment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, John R.; Melis, Theodore S.; Patiño, Eduardo; Larsen, Matthew C.; Topping, David J.; Rasmussen, Patrick P.; Figueroa-Alamo, Carlos

2003-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey is evaluating potentially useful surrogate instruments and methods for inferring the physical characteristics of suspended sediments. Instruments operating on bulk acoustic, bulk and digital optic, laser, and pressure-differential technologies are being tested in riverine and laboratory settings for their usefulness to Federal agencies toward providing quantifiably reliable information on bed-material and bed-topography characteristics, and on concentrations, size distributions and transport rates of sediments in suspension and as bedload. The efficacy of four suspended-sediment surrogate technologies has been demonstrated to varying degrees of success in Kansas, Florida, Arizona, and Puerto Rico.

Ultrasound and radiology surrogate endpoints in pharmacological studies.

PubMed

Agewall, S; DeGroot, E; Marcos-Alberca, P; Zamorano, J L; Barrero, A A; Badano, L P; Perrone-Filardi, P

2012-09-01

Cardiovascular studies investigating therapeutic intervention with clinical endpoints are costly due to the need for considerable duration and large number of patients, or both. Therefore, for evaluation of novel cardiovascular drug efficacy, surrogate endpoints are used. Cardiovascular imaging endpoints have proven their worth. Sometimes the relevance of imaging is questioned and other methods are suggested instead. There is also some confusion about the strengths of imaging endpoints. The aim of the present paper is to review ultrasound and radiology imaging techniques as surrogate endpoints in pharmacological trials. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust best linear estimator for Cox regression with instrumental variables in whole cohort and surrogates with additive measurement error in calibration sample

PubMed Central

Wang, Ching-Yun; Song, Xiao

2017-01-01

SUMMARY Biomedical researchers are often interested in estimating the effect of an environmental exposure in relation to a chronic disease endpoint. However, the exposure variable of interest may be measured with errors. In a subset of the whole cohort, a surrogate variable is available for the true unobserved exposure variable. The surrogate variable satisfies an additive measurement error model, but it may not have repeated measurements. The subset in which the surrogate variables are available is called a calibration sample. In addition to the surrogate variables that are available among the subjects in the calibration sample, we consider the situation when there is an instrumental variable available for all study subjects. An instrumental variable is correlated with the unobserved true exposure variable, and hence can be useful in the estimation of the regression coefficients. In this paper, we propose a nonparametric method for Cox regression using the observed data from the whole cohort. The nonparametric estimator is the best linear combination of a nonparametric correction estimator from the calibration sample and the difference of the naive estimators from the calibration sample and the whole cohort. The asymptotic distribution is derived, and the finite sample performance of the proposed estimator is examined via intensive simulation studies. The methods are applied to the Nutritional Biomarkers Study of the Women’s Health Initiative. PMID:27546625

Beauty and the beast: Some perspectives on efficient model analysis, surrogate models, and the future of modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hill, M. C.; Jakeman, J.; Razavi, S.; Tolson, B.

2015-12-01

For many environmental systems model runtimes have remained very long as more capable computers have been used to add more processes and more time and space discretization. Scientists have also added more parameters and kinds of observations, and many model runs are needed to explore the models. Computational demand equals run time multiplied by number of model runs divided by parallelization opportunities. Model exploration is conducted using sensitivity analysis, optimization, and uncertainty quantification. Sensitivity analysis is used to reveal consequences of what may be very complex simulated relations, optimization is used to identify parameter values that fit the data best, or at least better, and uncertainty quantification is used to evaluate the precision of simulated results. The long execution times make such analyses a challenge. Methods for addressing this challenges include computationally frugal analysis of the demanding original model and a number of ingenious surrogate modeling methods. Both commonly use about 50-100 runs of the demanding original model. In this talk we consider the tradeoffs between (1) original model development decisions, (2) computationally frugal analysis of the original model, and (3) using many model runs of the fast surrogate model. Some questions of interest are as follows. If the added processes and discretization invested in (1) are compared with the restrictions and approximations in model analysis produced by long model execution times, is there a net benefit related of the goals of the model? Are there changes to the numerical methods that could reduce the computational demands while giving up less fidelity than is compromised by using computationally frugal methods or surrogate models for model analysis? Both the computationally frugal methods and surrogate models require that the solution of interest be a smooth function of the parameters or interest. How does the information obtained from the local methods typical of (2) and the global averaged methods typical of (3) compare for typical systems? The discussion will use examples of response of the Greenland glacier to global warming and surface and groundwater modeling.

Is blood pressure reduction a valid surrogate endpoint for stroke prevention? an analysis incorporating a systematic review of randomised controlled trials, a by-trial weighted errors-in-variables regression, the surrogate threshold effect (STE) and the biomarker-surrogacy (BioSurrogate) evaluation schema (BSES)

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Blood pressure is considered to be a leading example of a valid surrogate endpoint. The aims of this study were to (i) formally evaluate systolic and diastolic blood pressure reduction as a surrogate endpoint for stroke prevention and (ii) determine what blood pressure reduction would predict a stroke benefit. Methods We identified randomised trials of at least six months duration comparing any pharmacologic anti-hypertensive treatment to placebo or no treatment, and reporting baseline blood pressure, on-trial blood pressure, and fatal and non-fatal stroke. Trials with fewer than five strokes in at least one arm were excluded. Errors-in-variables weighted least squares regression modelled the reduction in stroke as a function of systolic blood pressure reduction and diastolic blood pressure reduction respectively. The lower 95% prediction band was used to determine the minimum systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure difference, the surrogate threshold effect (STE), below which there would be no predicted stroke benefit. The STE was used to generate the surrogate threshold effect proportion (STEP), a surrogacy metric, which with the R-squared trial-level association was used to evaluate blood pressure as a surrogate endpoint for stroke using the Biomarker-Surrogacy Evaluation Schema (BSES3). Results In 18 qualifying trials representing all pharmacologic drug classes of antihypertensives, assuming a reliability coefficient of 0.9, the surrogate threshold effect for a stroke benefit was 7.1 mmHg for systolic blood pressure and 2.4 mmHg for diastolic blood pressure. The trial-level association was 0.41 and 0.64 and the STEP was 66% and 78% for systolic and diastolic blood pressure respectively. The STE and STEP were more robust to measurement error in the independent variable than R-squared trial-level associations. Using the BSES3, assuming a reliability coefficient of 0.9, systolic blood pressure was a B + grade and diastolic blood pressure was an A grade surrogate endpoint for stroke prevention. In comparison, using the same stroke data sets, no STEs could be estimated for cardiovascular (CV) mortality or all-cause mortality reduction, although the STE for CV mortality approached 25 mmHg for systolic blood pressure. Conclusions In this report we provide the first surrogate threshold effect (STE) values for systolic and diastolic blood pressure. We suggest the STEs have face and content validity, evidenced by the inclusivity of trial populations, subject populations and pharmacologic intervention populations in their calculation. We propose that the STE and STEP metrics offer another method of evaluating the evidence supporting surrogate endpoints. We demonstrate how surrogacy evaluations are strengthened if formally evaluated within specific-context evaluation frameworks using the Biomarker- Surrogate Evaluation Schema (BSES3), and we discuss the implications of our evaluation of blood pressure on other biomarkers and patient-reported instruments in relation to surrogacy metrics and trial design. PMID:22409774

SU-F-BRA-08: An Investigation of Well-Chamber Responses for An Electronic Brachytherapy Source

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Culberson, W; Micka, J

Purpose: The aim of this study was to investigate the variation of well-type ionization chamber response between a Xoft Axxent™ electronic brachytherapy (EBT) source and a GE Oncoseed™ 6711 I-125 seed. Methods: A new EBT air-kerma standard has recently been introduced by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Historically, the Axxent source strength has been based on a well chamber calibration from an I-125 brachytherapy source due to the lack of a primary standard. Xoft utilizes a calibration procedure that employs a GE 6711 seed calibration as a surrogate standard to represent the air-kerma strength of an Axxentmore » source. This method is based on the premise that the energies of the two sources are similar and thus, a conversion factor would be a suitable interim solution until a NIST standard was established. For this investigation, a number of well chambers of the same model type and three different EBT sources were used to determine NIST-traceable calibration coefficients for both the GE 6711 seed and the Axxent source. The ratio of the two coefficients was analyzed for consistency and also to identify any possible correlations with chamber vintage or the sources themselves. Results: For all well chambers studied, the relative standard deviation of the ratio of calibration coefficients between the two standards is less than 1%. No specific trends were found with the well chamber vintage or between the three different EBT sources used. Conclusion: The variation of well chamber calibration coefficients between a Xoft Axxent™ EBT source versus a GE 6711 Oncoseed™ are consistent across well chamber vintage and between sources. The results of this investigation confirm the underlying assumptions and stability of the surrogate standard currently in use by Xoft, and establishes a migration path for future implementation of the new NIST air kerma standard. This research is supported in part by Xoft, a subsidiary of iCAD.« less

Tumor response and progression-free survival as potential surrogate endpoints for overall survival in extensive stage small-cell lung cancer: findings on the basis of North Central Cancer Treatment Group trials.

PubMed

Foster, Nathan R; Qi, Yingwei; Shi, Qian; Krook, James E; Kugler, John W; Jett, James R; Molina, Julian R; Schild, Steven E; Adjei, Alex A; Mandrekar, Sumithra J

2011-03-15

The authors investigated the putative surrogate endpoints of best response, complete response (CR), confirmed response, and progression-free survival (PFS) for associations with overall survival (OS), and as possible surrogate endpoints for OS. Individual patient data from 870 untreated extensive stage small-cell lung cancer patients participating in 6 single-arm (274 patients) and 3 randomized trials (596 patients) were pooled. Patient-level associations between putative surrogate endpoints and OS were assessed by Cox models using landmark analyses. Trial-level surrogacy of putative surrogate endpoints were assessed by the association of treatment effects on OS and individual putative surrogate endpoints. Trial-level surrogacy measures included: R(2) from weighted least squares regression model, Spearman correlation coefficient, and R(2) from bivariate survival model (Copula R(2) ). Median OS and PFS were 9.6 (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.1-10.0) and 5.5 (95% CI, 5.2-5.9) months, respectively; best response, CR, and confirmed response rates were 44%, 22%, and 34%, respectively. Patient-level associations showed that PFS status at 4 months was a strong predictor of subsequent survival (hazard ratio [HR], 0.42; 95% CI, 0.35-0.51; concordance index 0.63; P < .01), with 6-month PFS being the strongest (HR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.35-0.49; concordance index, 0.66, P < .01). At the trial level, PFS showed the highest level of surrogacy for OS (weighted least squares R(2) = 0.79; Copula R(2) = 0.80), explaining 79% of the variance in OS. Tumor response endpoints showed lower surrogacy levels (weighted least squares R(2) ≤0.48). PFS was strongly associated with OS at both the patient and trial levels. PFS also shows promise as a potential surrogate for OS, but further validation is needed using data from a larger number of randomized phase 3 trials. Copyright © 2010 American Cancer Society.

Progression-free survival as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in glioblastoma: a literature-based meta-analysis from 91 trials

PubMed Central

Han, Kelong; Ren, Melanie; Wick, Wolfgang; Abrey, Lauren; Das, Asha; Jin, Jin; Reardon, David A.

2014-01-01

Background The aim of this study was to determine correlations between progression-free survival (PFS) and the objective response rate (ORR) with overall survival (OS) in glioblastoma and to evaluate their potential use as surrogates for OS. Method Published glioblastoma trials reporting OS and ORR and/or PFS with sufficient detail were included in correlative analyses using weighted linear regression. Results Of 274 published unique glioblastoma trials, 91 were included. PFS and OS hazard ratios were strongly correlated; R2 = 0.92 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.71–0.99). Linear regression determined that a 10% PFS risk reduction would yield an 8.1% ± 0.8% OS risk reduction. R2 between median PFS and median OS was 0.70 (95% CI, 0.59–0.79), with a higher value in trials using Response Assessment in Neuro-Oncology (RANO; R2 = 0.96, n = 8) versus Macdonald criteria (R2 = 0.70; n = 83). No significant differences were demonstrated between temozolomide- and bevacizumab-containing regimens (P = .10) or between trials using RANO and Macdonald criteria (P = .49). The regression line slope between median PFS and OS was significantly higher in newly diagnosed versus recurrent disease (0.58 vs 0.35, P = .04). R2 for 6-month PFS with 1-year OS and median OS were 0.60 (95% CI, 0.37–0.77) and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.42–0.77), respectively. Objective response rate and OS were poorly correlated (R2 = 0.22). Conclusion In glioblastoma, PFS and OS are strongly correlated, indicating that PFS may be an appropriate surrogate for OS. Compared with OS, PFS offers earlier assessment and higher statistical power at the time of analysis. PMID:24335699

A Method of Surrogate Model Construction which Leverages Lower-Fidelity Information using Space Mapping Techniques

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-27

fidelity. This pairing is accomplished through the use of a space mapping technique, which is a process where the design space of a lower fidelity model...is aligned a higher fidelity model. The intent of applying space mapping techniques to the field of surrogate construction is to leverage the

Constrained optimization by radial basis function interpolation for high-dimensional expensive black-box problems with infeasible initial points

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regis, Rommel G.

2014-02-01

This article develops two new algorithms for constrained expensive black-box optimization that use radial basis function surrogates for the objective and constraint functions. These algorithms are called COBRA and Extended ConstrLMSRBF and, unlike previous surrogate-based approaches, they can be used for high-dimensional problems where all initial points are infeasible. They both follow a two-phase approach where the first phase finds a feasible point while the second phase improves this feasible point. COBRA and Extended ConstrLMSRBF are compared with alternative methods on 20 test problems and on the MOPTA08 benchmark automotive problem (D.R. Jones, Presented at MOPTA 2008), which has 124 decision variables and 68 black-box inequality constraints. The alternatives include a sequential penalty derivative-free algorithm, a direct search method with kriging surrogates, and two multistart methods. Numerical results show that COBRA algorithms are competitive with Extended ConstrLMSRBF and they generally outperform the alternatives on the MOPTA08 problem and most of the test problems.

A review on design of experiments and surrogate models in aircraft real-time and many-query aerodynamic analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yondo, Raul; Andrés, Esther; Valero, Eusebio

2018-01-01

Full scale aerodynamic wind tunnel testing, numerical simulation of high dimensional (full-order) aerodynamic models or flight testing are some of the fundamental but complex steps in the various design phases of recent civil transport aircrafts. Current aircraft aerodynamic designs have increase in complexity (multidisciplinary, multi-objective or multi-fidelity) and need to address the challenges posed by the nonlinearity of the objective functions and constraints, uncertainty quantification in aerodynamic problems or the restrained computational budgets. With the aim to reduce the computational burden and generate low-cost but accurate models that mimic those full order models at different values of the design variables, Recent progresses have witnessed the introduction, in real-time and many-query analyses, of surrogate-based approaches as rapid and cheaper to simulate models. In this paper, a comprehensive and state-of-the art survey on common surrogate modeling techniques and surrogate-based optimization methods is given, with an emphasis on models selection and validation, dimensionality reduction, sensitivity analyses, constraints handling or infill and stopping criteria. Benefits, drawbacks and comparative discussions in applying those methods are described. Furthermore, the paper familiarizes the readers with surrogate models that have been successfully applied to the general field of fluid dynamics, but not yet in the aerospace industry. Additionally, the review revisits the most popular sampling strategies used in conducting physical and simulation-based experiments in aircraft aerodynamic design. Attractive or smart designs infrequently used in the field and discussions on advanced sampling methodologies are presented, to give a glance on the various efficient possibilities to a priori sample the parameter space. Closing remarks foster on future perspectives, challenges and shortcomings associated with the use of surrogate models by aircraft industrial aerodynamicists, despite their increased interest among the research communities.

Annual sediment flux estimates in a tidal strait using surrogate measurements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ganju, N.K.; Schoellhamer, D.H.

2006-01-01

Annual suspended-sediment flux estimates through Carquinez Strait (the seaward boundary of Suisun Bay, California) are provided based on surrogate measurements for advective, dispersive, and Stokes drift flux. The surrogates are landward watershed discharge, suspended-sediment concentration at one location in the Strait, and the longitudinal salinity gradient. The first two surrogates substitute for tidally averaged discharge and velocity-weighted suspended-sediment concentration in the Strait, thereby providing advective flux estimates, while Stokes drift is estimated with suspended-sediment concentration alone. Dispersive flux is estimated using the product of longitudinal salinity gradient and the root-mean-square value of velocity-weighted suspended-sediment concentration as an added surrogate variable. Cross-sectional measurements validated the use of surrogates during the monitoring period. During high freshwater flow advective and dispersive flux were in the seaward direction, while landward dispersive flux dominated and advective flux approached zero during low freshwater flow. Stokes drift flux was consistently in the landward direction. Wetter than average years led to net export from Suisun Bay, while dry years led to net sediment import. Relatively low watershed sediment fluxes to Suisun Bay contribute to net export during the wet season, while gravitational circulation in Carquinez Strait and higher suspended-sediment concentrations in San Pablo Bay (seaward end of Carquinez Strait) are responsible for the net import of sediment during the dry season. Annual predictions of suspended-sediment fluxes, using these methods, will allow for a sediment budget for Suisun Bay, which has implications for marsh restoration and nutrient/contaminant transport. These methods also provide a general framework for estimating sediment fluxes in estuarine environments, where temporal and spatial variability of transport are large. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Four-dimensional MRI using an internal respiratory surrogate derived by dimensionality reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uh, Jinsoo; Ayaz Khan, M.; Hua, Chiaho

2016-11-01

This study aimed to develop a practical and accurate 4-dimensional (4D) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) method using a non-navigator, image-based internal respiratory surrogate derived by dimensionality reduction (DR). The use of DR has been previously suggested but not implemented for reconstructing 4D MRI, despite its practical advantages. We compared multiple image-acquisition schemes and refined a retrospective-sorting process to optimally implement a DR-derived surrogate. The comparison included an unconventional scheme that acquires paired slices alternately to mitigate the internal surrogate’s dependency on a specific slice location. We introduced ‘target-oriented sorting’, as opposed to conventional binning, to quantify the coherence in retrospectively sorted images, thereby determining the minimal scan time needed for sufficient coherence. This study focused on evaluating the proposed method using digital phantoms which provided unequivocal gold standard. The evaluation indicated that the DR-based respiratory surrogate is highly accurate: the error in amplitude percentile of the surrogate signal was less than 5% with the optimal scheme. Acquiring alternating paired slices was superior to the conventional scheme of acquiring individual slices; the advantage of the unconventional scheme was more pronounced when a substantial phase shift occurred across slice locations. The analysis of coherence across sorted images confirmed the advantage of higher sampling efficiencies in non-navigator respiratory surrogates. We determined that a scan time of 20 s per imaging slice was sufficient to achieve a mean coherence error of less than 1% for the tested respiratory patterns. The clinical applicability of the proposed 4D MRI has been demonstrated with volunteers and patients. The diaphragm motion in 4D MRI was consistent with that in dynamic 2D imaging which was regarded as the gold standard (difference within 1.8 mm on average).

[Regulation of surrogate gestation and maternity in the state of Tabasco].

PubMed

Ortiz, Miguel Ángel León

2015-01-01

In recent years, one of the most disconcerting issues in bioethics, a field closely related to legal disciplines, is surrogate gestation or surrogacy. Very little is known about the medical nature of these novel therapeutic processes in legal study. Different dilemmas emerge in the fields of ethics, medicine and law. This paper analyses the normative content of the Tabasco civil regime with respect to the concepts, types and effects of surrogacy. It emphasizes the primacy of protecting the physical and emotional integrity of pregnant women and the legal protection of the nasciturus. In addition, this paper shows the exceptional nature of this prerogative for infertile people who cannot get pregnant through any other medical means, by posing surrogacy's ultima ratio regum characteristics.

Statistical Tests of System Linearity Based on the Method of Surrogate Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunter, N.; Paez, T.; Red-Horse, J.

When dealing with measured data from dynamic systems we often make the tacit assumption that the data are generated by linear dynamics. While some systematic tests for linearity and determinism are available - for example the coherence fimction, the probability density fimction, and the bispectrum - fi,u-ther tests that quanti$ the existence and the degree of nonlinearity are clearly needed. In this paper we demonstrate a statistical test for the nonlinearity exhibited by a dynamic system excited by Gaussian random noise. We perform the usual division of the input and response time series data into blocks as required by themore » Welch method of spectrum estimation and search for significant relationships between a given input fkequency and response at harmonics of the selected input frequency. We argue that systematic tests based on the recently developed statistical method of surrogate data readily detect significant nonlinear relationships. The paper elucidates the method of surrogate data. Typical results are illustrated for a linear single degree-of-freedom system and for a system with polynomial stiffness nonlinearity.« less

Spent Fuel Ratio Estimates from Numerical Models in ALE3D

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Margraf, J. D.; Dunn, T. A.

Potential threat of intentional sabotage of spent nuclear fuel storage facilities is of significant importance to national security. Paramount is the study of focused energy attacks on these materials and the potential release of aerosolized hazardous particulates into the environment. Depleted uranium oxide (DUO 2) is often chosen as a surrogate material for testing due to the unreasonable cost and safety demands for conducting full-scale tests with real spent nuclear fuel. To account for differences in mechanical response resulting in changes to particle distribution it is necessary to scale the DUO 2 results to get a proper measure for spentmore » fuel. This is accomplished with the spent fuel ratio (SFR), the ratio of respirable aerosol mass released due to identical damage conditions between a spent fuel and a surrogate material like depleted uranium oxide (DUO 2). A very limited number of full-scale experiments have been carried out to capture this data, and the oft-questioned validity of the results typically leads to overly-conservative risk estimates. In the present work, the ALE3D hydrocode is used to simulate DUO 2 and spent nuclear fuel pellets impacted by metal jets. The results demonstrate an alternative approach to estimate the respirable release fraction of fragmented nuclear fuel.« less

Migration surrogates and their association with obesity among within-country migrants

PubMed Central

Bernabe-Ortiz, Antonio; Gilman, Robert H.; Smeeth, Liam; Miranda, J. Jaime

2010-01-01

Limited studies have evaluated the link between acculturation and health outcomes of within-country migrants. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether well-known acculturation surrogates were associated with obesity among Peruvian rural-to-urban migrants. We performed a cross sectional survey, the PERU MIGRANT study, using single-stage random sampling. Evaluation included weight, height, and waist circumference (WC) as well as acculturation surrogates. Obesity was assessed using body mass index (BMI) and WC. Length of residence, age at migration, language proficiency and language preferences (Spanish or Quechua) were assessed in logistic regression models to calculate odd ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) adjusting for potential confounders. A total of 589 rural-to-urban migrants were enrolled. The mean age was 47.8 (SD: 11.7, range: 30-92) and 280 (47.5%) were males. Obesity prevalence assessed by BMI was 30.4% among women and 10.7% among men (p<0.001), whereas abdominal obesity assessed by WC was 29.1% among women and 19.1% among men (p<0.01). Obesity was associated with older age at first migration, language speaking proficiency and language preferences. The association between obesity and acculturation surrogates is variable in this population. Thus, acculturation per se can explore positive channels associated with better health outcomes. The patterns shown in this report suggest a more complex association for these factors. PMID:20395946

Chance-constrained multi-objective optimization of groundwater remediation design at DNAPLs-contaminated sites using a multi-algorithm genetically adaptive method.

PubMed

Ouyang, Qi; Lu, Wenxi; Hou, Zeyu; Zhang, Yu; Li, Shuai; Luo, Jiannan

2017-05-01

In this paper, a multi-algorithm genetically adaptive multi-objective (AMALGAM) method is proposed as a multi-objective optimization solver. It was implemented in the multi-objective optimization of a groundwater remediation design at sites contaminated by dense non-aqueous phase liquids. In this study, there were two objectives: minimization of the total remediation cost, and minimization of the remediation time. A non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) was adopted to compare with the proposed method. For efficiency, the time-consuming surfactant-enhanced aquifer remediation simulation model was replaced by a surrogate model constructed by a multi-gene genetic programming (MGGP) technique. Similarly, two other surrogate modeling methods-support vector regression (SVR) and Kriging (KRG)-were employed to make comparisons with MGGP. In addition, the surrogate-modeling uncertainty was incorporated in the optimization model by chance-constrained programming (CCP). The results showed that, for the problem considered in this study, (1) the solutions obtained by AMALGAM incurred less remediation cost and required less time than those of NSGA-II, indicating that AMALGAM outperformed NSGA-II. It was additionally shown that (2) the MGGP surrogate model was more accurate than SVR and KRG; and (3) the remediation cost and time increased with the confidence level, which can enable decision makers to make a suitable choice by considering the given budget, remediation time, and reliability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A new algorithm combining geostatistics with the surrogate data approach to increase the accuracy of comparisons of point radiation measurements with cloud measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venema, V. K. C.; Lindau, R.; Varnai, T.; Simmer, C.

2009-04-01

Two main groups of statistical methods used in the Earth sciences are geostatistics and stochastic modelling. Geostatistical methods, such as various kriging algorithms, aim at estimating the mean value for every point as well as possible. In case of sparse measurements, such fields have less variability at small scales and a narrower distribution as the true field. This can lead to biases if a nonlinear process is simulated on such a kriged field. Stochastic modelling aims at reproducing the structure of the data. One of the stochastic modelling methods, the so-called surrogate data approach, replicates the value distribution and power spectrum of a certain data set. However, while stochastic methods reproduce the statistical properties of the data, the location of the measurement is not considered. Because radiative transfer through clouds is a highly nonlinear process it is essential to model the distribution (e.g. of optical depth, extinction, liquid water content or liquid water path) accurately as well as the correlations in the cloud field because of horizontal photon transport. This explains the success of surrogate cloud fields for use in 3D radiative transfer studies. However, up to now we could only achieve good results for the radiative properties averaged over the field, but not for a radiation measurement located at a certain position. Therefore we have developed a new algorithm that combines the accuracy of stochastic (surrogate) modelling with the positioning capabilities of kriging. In this way, we can automatically profit from the large geostatistical literature and software. The algorithm is tested on cloud fields from large eddy simulations (LES). On these clouds a measurement is simulated. From the pseudo-measurement we estimated the distribution and power spectrum. Furthermore, the pseudo-measurement is kriged to a field the size of the final surrogate cloud. The distribution, spectrum and the kriged field are the inputs to the algorithm. This algorithm is similar to the standard iterative amplitude adjusted Fourier transform (IAAFT) algorithm, but has an additional iterative step in which the surrogate field is nudged towards the kriged field. The nudging strength is gradually reduced to zero. We work with four types of pseudo-measurements: one zenith pointing measurement (which together with the wind produces a line measurement), five zenith pointing measurements, a slow and a fast azimuth scan (which together with the wind produce spirals). Because we work with LES clouds and the truth is known, we can validate the algorithm by performing 3D radiative transfer calculations on the original LES clouds and on the new surrogate clouds. For comparison also the radiative properties of the kriged fields and standard surrogate fields are computed. Preliminary results already show that these new surrogate clouds reproduce the structure of the original clouds very well and the minima and maxima are located where the pseudo-measurements sees them. The main limitation seems to be the amount of data, which is especially very limited in case of just one zenith pointing measurement.

Early resuscitation intensity as a surrogate for bleeding severity and early mortality in the PRospective, Observational, Multicenter, Major Trauma Transfusion (PROMMTT) Study

PubMed Central

Rahbar, Elaheh; Fox, Erin E.; del Junco, Deborah J.; Harvin, John A.; Holcomb, John B.; Wade, Charles E.; Schreiber, Martin A.; Rahbar, Mohammad H.; Bulger, Eileen M.; Phelan, Herb A.; Brasel, Karen J.; Alarcon, Louis H.; Myers, John G.; Cohen, Mitchell J.; Muskat, Peter; Cotton, Bryan A.

2013-01-01

Background The classic definition of MT, ≥10 units red blood cells (RBCs) in 24 hours, has never been demonstrated as a valid surrogate for severe hemorrhage and can introduce survival bias. In addition, the definition fails to capture other products that the clinician may have immediately available during the initial resuscitation. Assuming that units of resuscitative fluids reflect patient illness, our objective was to identify a rate of resuscitation intensity (RI) that could serve as an early surrogate of sickness for patients with substantial bleeding post-injury. Methods Adult patients surviving at least 30 minutes post-admission and receiving ≥1 RBC within 6 hours of admission from ten US Level 1 trauma centers were enrolled in the PRospective Observational Multicenter Major Trauma Transfusion study. Total fluid units were calculated as the sum of the number of crystalloid units (1 L=1 unit), colloids (0.5 L=1 unit) and blood products (1 RBC=1 unit, 1 plasma=1 unit, 6 pack platelets=1 unit). Univariable and multivariable logistic regressions were used to evaluate associations between RI and 6-hour mortality, adjusting for age, center, penetrating injury, weighted Revised Trauma Score, and Injury Severity Score. Results 1096 eligible patients received resuscitative fluids within 30 minutes, including 620 transfused with blood products. Despite varying products utilized, the total fluid RI was similar across all sites (3.2±2.5 units). Patients who received ≥4 units of any resuscitative fluid had a 6-hour mortality rate of 14.4% vs. 4.5% in patients who received <4 units. The adjusted odds ratio of 6-hour mortality for patients receiving ≥4 units within 30 minutes was 2.1 (95% Confidence Interval: 1.2–3.5). Conclusions Resuscitation with ≥4 units of any fluid was significantly associated with 6-hour mortality. This study suggests that early RI regardless of fluid type can be used as a surrogate for sickness and mortality in severely bleeding patients. Level of Evidence PROMMTT is a prospective observational study, Level II. PMID:23778506

Recovery Efficiency, False Negative Rate, and Limit of Detection Performance of a Validated Macrofoam-Swab Sampling Method with Low Surface Concentrations of Two Bacillus anthracis Surrogates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Piepel, Gregory F.; Hutchison, Janine R.; Kaiser, Brooke L. D.

The performance of a macrofoam-swab sampling method was evaluated using Bacillus anthracis Sterne (BAS) and Bacillus atrophaeus Nakamura (BG) spores applied at nine low target amounts (2-500 spores) to positive-control plates and test coupons (2 in × 2 in) of four surface materials (glass, stainless steel, vinyl tile, and plastic). Test results from cultured samples were used to evaluate the effects of surrogate, surface concentration, and surface material on recovery efficiency (RE), false negative rate (FNR), and limit of detection. For RE, surrogate and surface material had statistically significant effects, but concentration did not. Mean REs were the lowest formore » vinyl tile (50.8% with BAS, 40.2% with BG) and the highest for glass (92.8% with BAS, 71.4% with BG). FNR values ranged from 0 to 0.833 for BAS and 0 to 0.806 for BG, with values increasing as concentration decreased in the range tested (0.078 to 19.375 CFU/cm2, where CFU denotes ‘colony forming units’). Surface material also had a statistically significant effect. A FNR-concentration curve was fit for each combination of surrogate and surface material. For both surrogates, the FNR curves tended to be the lowest for glass and highest for vinyl title. The FNR curves for BG tended to be higher than for BAS at lower concentrations, especially for glass. Results using a modified Rapid Viability-Polymerase Chain Reaction (mRV-PCR) analysis method were also obtained. The mRV-PCR results and comparisons to the culture results are discussed in a separate report.« less

Recovery Efficiency, False Negative Rate, and Limit of Detection Performance of a Validated Macrofoam-Swab Sampling Method with Low Surface Concentrations of Two Bacillus anthracis Surrogates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Piepel, Gregory F.; Hutchison, Janine R.; Deatherage Kaiser, Brooke L

The performance of a macrofoam-swab sampling method was evaluated using Bacillus anthracis Sterne (BAS) and Bacillus atrophaeus Nakamura (BG) spores applied at nine low target amounts (2-500 spores) to positive-control plates and test coupons (2 in. × 2 in.) of four surface materials (glass, stainless steel, vinyl tile, and plastic). Test results from cultured samples were used to evaluate the effects of surrogate, surface concentration, and surface material on recovery efficiency (RE), false negative rate (FNR), and limit of detection. For RE, surrogate and surface material had statistically significant effects, but concentration did not. Mean REs were the lowest formore » vinyl tile (50.8% with BAS, 40.2% with BG) and the highest for glass (92.8% with BAS, 71.4% with BG). FNR values ranged from 0 to 0.833 for BAS and 0 to 0.806 for BG, with values increasing as concentration decreased in the range tested (0.078 to 19.375 CFU/cm 2, where CFU denotes ‘colony forming units’). Surface material also had a statistically significant effect. A FNR-concentration curve was fit for each combination of surrogate and surface material. For both surrogates, the FNR curves tended to be the lowest for glass and highest for vinyl title. The FNR curves for BG tended to be higher than for BAS at lower concentrations, especially for glass. Results using a modified Rapid Viability-Polymerase Chain Reaction (mRV-PCR) analysis method were also obtained. The mRV-PCR results and comparisons to the culture results will be discussed in a subsequent report.« less

Using Video Images to Improve the Accuracy of Surrogate Decision-Making: A Randomized Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Volandes, Angelo E.; Mitchell, Susan L.; Gillick, Muriel R.; Chang, Yuchiao; Paasche-Orlow, Michael K.

2009-01-01

Introduction When patients are unable to make important end-of-life decisions, doctors ask surrogate decision makers to provide insight into patients’ preferences. Unfortunately, multiple studies have shown that surrogates’ knowledge of patient preferences is poor. We hypothesized that a video decision tool would improve concordance between patients and their surrogates for end-of-life preferences. Objective To compare the concordance of preferences among elderly patients and their surrogates listening to only a verbal description of advanced dementia or viewing a video decision support tool of the disease after hearing the verbal description. Methods This was a randomized controlled trial of a convenience sample of community-dwelling elderly subjects (≥65 years) and their surrogates, and was conducted at 2 geriatric clinics affiliated with 2 academic medical centers in Boston. The study was conducted between September 1, 2007, and May 30, 2008. Random assignment of patient and surrogate dyads was to either a verbal narrative or a video decision support tool after the verbal narrative. End points were goals of care chosen by the patient and predicted goals of care by the surrogate. Goals of care included life-prolonging care (CPR, mechanical ventilation), limited care (hospitalization, antibiotics, but not CPR), and comfort care (only treatment to relieve symptoms). The primary outcome measure was the concordance rate of preferences between patients and their surrogates. Results A total of 14 pairs of patients and their surrogates were randomized to verbal narrative (n = 6) or video after verbal narrative (n = 8). Among the 6 patients receiving only the verbal narrative, 3 (50%) preferred comfort care, 1 (17%) chose limited care, and 2 (33%) desired life-prolonging care. Among the surrogates for these patients, only 2 correctly chose what their loved one would want if in a state of advanced dementia, yielding a concordance rate of 33%. Among the 8 patients receiving the video decision support tool, all 8 chose comfort care. Among the surrogates for these patients, all 8 correctly chose what their loved one would want if in a state of advanced dementia, yielding a concordance rate of 100%. Conclusion Patients and surrogates viewing a video decision support tool for advanced dementia are more likely to concur about the patient’s end-of-life preferences than when solely listening to a verbal description of the disease. PMID:19808156

Surrogacy assessment using principal stratification with multivariate normal and Gaussian copula models.

PubMed

Taylor, Jeremy M G; Conlon, Anna S C; Elliott, Michael R

2015-08-01

The validation of intermediate markers as surrogate markers (S) for the true outcome of interest (T) in clinical trials offers the possibility for trials to be run more quickly and cheaply by using the surrogate endpoint in place of the true endpoint. Working within a principal stratification framework, we propose causal quantities to evaluate surrogacy using a Gaussian copula model for an ordinal surrogate and time-to-event final outcome. The methods are applied to data from four colorectal cancer clinical trials, where S is tumor response and T is overall survival. For the Gaussian copula model, a Bayesian estimation strategy is used and, as some parameters are not identifiable from the data, we explore the use of informative priors that are consistent with reasonable assumptions in the surrogate marker setting to aid in estimation. While there is some bias in the estimation of the surrogacy quantities of interest, the estimation procedure does reasonably well at distinguishing between poor and good surrogate markers. Some of the parameters of the proposed model are not identifiable from the data, and therefore, assumptions must be made in order to aid in their estimation. The proposed quantities can be used in combination to provide evidence about the validity of S as a surrogate marker for T. © The Author(s) 2014.

Bending testing and characterization of surrogate nuclear fuel rods made of Zircaloy-4 cladding and aluminum oxide pellets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hong; Wang, Jy-An John

2016-10-01

Behavior of surrogate nuclear fuel rods made of Zircaloy-4 (Zry-4) cladding with alumina pellets under reversed cyclic bending was studied. Tests were performed under load or moment control at 5 Hz. The surrogate rods fractured under moment amplitudes greater than 10.16 Nm with fatigue lives between 2.4 × 103 and 2.2 × 106 cycles. Fatigue response of Zry-4 cladding was characterized by using flexural rigidity. Degradation of flexural rigidity was shown to depend on the moment and the prefatigue condition of specimens. Pellet-to-pellet interface (PPI), pellet-to-cladding interface (PCI), and pellet condition affect surrogate rod failure. Both debonding of PPI/PCI and pellet fracturing contribute to surrogate rod bending fatigue. The effect of sensor spacing on curvature measurement using three-point deflections was studied; the method based on effective gauge length is effective in sensor spacing correction. The database developed and the understanding gained in this study can serve as input to analysis of SNF (spent nuclear fuel) vibration integrity.

Surrogacy assessment using principal stratification when surrogate and outcome measures are multivariate normal.

PubMed

Conlon, Anna S C; Taylor, Jeremy M G; Elliott, Michael R

2014-04-01

In clinical trials, a surrogate outcome variable (S) can be measured before the outcome of interest (T) and may provide early information regarding the treatment (Z) effect on T. Using the principal surrogacy framework introduced by Frangakis and Rubin (2002. Principal stratification in causal inference. Biometrics 58, 21-29), we consider an approach that has a causal interpretation and develop a Bayesian estimation strategy for surrogate validation when the joint distribution of potential surrogate and outcome measures is multivariate normal. From the joint conditional distribution of the potential outcomes of T, given the potential outcomes of S, we propose surrogacy validation measures from this model. As the model is not fully identifiable from the data, we propose some reasonable prior distributions and assumptions that can be placed on weakly identified parameters to aid in estimation. We explore the relationship between our surrogacy measures and the surrogacy measures proposed by Prentice (1989. Surrogate endpoints in clinical trials: definition and operational criteria. Statistics in Medicine 8, 431-440). The method is applied to data from a macular degeneration study and an ovarian cancer study.

Surrogacy assessment using principal stratification when surrogate and outcome measures are multivariate normal

PubMed Central

Conlon, Anna S. C.; Taylor, Jeremy M. G.; Elliott, Michael R.

2014-01-01

In clinical trials, a surrogate outcome variable (S) can be measured before the outcome of interest (T) and may provide early information regarding the treatment (Z) effect on T. Using the principal surrogacy framework introduced by Frangakis and Rubin (2002. Principal stratification in causal inference. Biometrics 58, 21–29), we consider an approach that has a causal interpretation and develop a Bayesian estimation strategy for surrogate validation when the joint distribution of potential surrogate and outcome measures is multivariate normal. From the joint conditional distribution of the potential outcomes of T, given the potential outcomes of S, we propose surrogacy validation measures from this model. As the model is not fully identifiable from the data, we propose some reasonable prior distributions and assumptions that can be placed on weakly identified parameters to aid in estimation. We explore the relationship between our surrogacy measures and the surrogacy measures proposed by Prentice (1989. Surrogate endpoints in clinical trials: definition and operational criteria. Statistics in Medicine 8, 431–440). The method is applied to data from a macular degeneration study and an ovarian cancer study. PMID:24285772

An Analytical Evaluation of Two Common-Odds Ratios as Population Indicators of DIF.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pommerich, Mary; And Others

The Mantel-Haenszel (MH) statistic for identifying differential item functioning (DIF) commonly conditions on the observed test score as a surrogate for conditioning on latent ability. When the comparison group distributions are not completely overlapping (i.e., are incongruent), the observed score represents different levels of latent ability…

77 FR 67332 - Certain Steel Threaded Rod From the People's Republic of China: Final Results and Final Partial...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-09

... Value for Hydrochloric Acid (3) Surrogate Financial Ratios Comment 2. Correcting the Harmonized Tariff...'') April 1, 2010, through March 31, 2011.\\1\\ Based upon our analysis of the comments and information... Antidumping Duty Administrative Review,'' dated August 24, 2012. Analysis of Comments Received All issues...

EVALUATION OF MURINE NOROVIRUS, FELINE CALICIVIRUS, POLIOVIRUS, AND MS2 AS SURROGATES FOR HUMAN NOROVIRUS IN a Model of Viral Persistence in SURFACE Water AND GROUNDWATER

EPA Science Inventory

Human noroviruses (NoV) are a significant cause of non bacterial gastroenteritis worldwide with contaminated drinking water a potential transmission route. The absence of a cell culture infectivity model for NoV necessitates the use of molecular methods and/or viral surrogate mod...

The Fire and Fire Surrogates Study: Providing guidelines for fire in future forest watershed management decisions

Treesearch

Carleton B. Edminster; C. Phillip Weatherspoon; Daniel G. Neary

2000-01-01

As part of the 1998 Joint USDA/USDI Fire Science Program, the Fire and Fire Surrogates Study was proposed to establish and evaluate cross-comparisons of fuels treatment practices and techniques to reduce wildfire risk. This study evaluates prescribed fire, thinning, and various mechanical treatment methods for treating, removing, or using woody biomass. Site-specific...

Aerodynamic design applying automatic differentiation and using robust variable fidelity optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takemiya, Tetsushi

In modern aerospace engineering, the physics-based computational design method is becoming more important, as it is more efficient than experiments and because it is more suitable in designing new types of aircraft (e.g., unmanned aerial vehicles or supersonic business jets) than the conventional design method, which heavily relies on historical data. To enhance the reliability of the physics-based computational design method, researchers have made tremendous efforts to improve the fidelity of models. However, high-fidelity models require longer computational time, so the advantage of efficiency is partially lost. This problem has been overcome with the development of variable fidelity optimization (VFO). In VFO, different fidelity models are simultaneously employed in order to improve the speed and the accuracy of convergence in an optimization process. Among the various types of VFO methods, one of the most promising methods is the approximation management framework (AMF). In the AMF, objective and constraint functions of a low-fidelity model are scaled at a design point so that the scaled functions, which are referred to as "surrogate functions," match those of a high-fidelity model. Since scaling functions and the low-fidelity model constitutes surrogate functions, evaluating the surrogate functions is faster than evaluating the high-fidelity model. Therefore, in the optimization process, in which gradient-based optimization is implemented and thus many function calls are required, the surrogate functions are used instead of the high-fidelity model to obtain a new design point. The best feature of the AMF is that it may converge to a local optimum of the high-fidelity model in much less computational time than the high-fidelity model. However, through literature surveys and implementations of the AMF, the author xx found that (1) the AMF is very vulnerable when the computational analysis models have numerical noise, which is very common in high-fidelity models, and that (2) the AMF terminates optimization erroneously when the optimization problems have constraints. The first problem is due to inaccuracy in computing derivatives in the AMF, and the second problem is due to erroneous treatment of the trust region ratio, which sets the size of the domain for an optimization in the AMF. In order to solve the first problem of the AMF, automatic differentiation (AD) technique, which reads the codes of analysis models and automatically generates new derivative codes based on some mathematical rules, is applied. If derivatives are computed with the generated derivative code, they are analytical, and the required computational time is independent of the number of design variables, which is very advantageous for realistic aerospace engineering problems. However, if analysis models implement iterative computations such as computational fluid dynamics (CFD), which solves system partial differential equations iteratively, computing derivatives through the AD requires a massive memory size. The author solved this deficiency by modifying the AD approach and developing a more efficient implementation with CFD, and successfully applied the AD to general CFD software. In order to solve the second problem of the AMF, the governing equation of the trust region ratio, which is very strict against the violation of constraints, is modified so that it can accept the violation of constraints within some tolerance. By accepting violations of constraints during the optimization process, the AMF can continue optimization without terminating immaturely and eventually find the true optimum design point. With these modifications, the AMF is referred to as "Robust AMF," and it is applied to airfoil and wing aerodynamic design problems using Euler CFD software. The former problem has 21 design variables, and the latter 64. In both problems, derivatives computed with the proposed AD method are first compared with those computed with the finite differentiation (FD) method, and then, the Robust AMF is implemented along with the sequential quadratic programming (SQP) optimization method with only high-fidelity models. The proposed AD method computes derivatives more accurately and faster than the FD method, and the Robust AMF successfully optimizes shapes of the airfoil and the wing in a much shorter time than SQP with only high-fidelity models. These results clearly show the effectiveness of the Robust AMF. Finally, the feasibility of reducing computational time for calculating derivatives and the necessity of AMF with an optimum design point always in the feasible region are discussed as future work.

A functional nonsynonymous toll-like receptor 4 gene polymorphism is associated with metabolic syndrome, surrogates of insulin resistance, and syndromes of lipid accumulation.

PubMed

Steinhardt, Alberto Penas; Aranguren, Florencia; Tellechea, Mariana L; Gómez Rosso, Leonardo A; Brites, Fernando D; Martínez-Larrad, Maria T; Serrano-Ríos, Manuel; Frechtel, Gustavo D; Taverna, Mariano J

2010-05-01

Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) plays a key role in the activation of innate immune responses. Loss-of-function mutations in TLR4 prevent diet-induced obesity and insulin resistance (IR). We conducted a population cross-sectional study to evaluate whether Asp299Gly (rs4986790) TLR4 gene polymorphism is associated with metabolic syndrome (MS), surrogates of IR, and syndromes of lipid accumulation (SLAs) in Argentinean healthy male subjects. rs4986790 was genotyped in 621 healthy unrelated male blood donors. National Cholesterol Education Program/Adult Treatment Panel III-MS (NCEP/ATP III-MS); SLAs such as enlarged waist elevated triglyceride syndrome (EWET), hypertriglyceridemic waist (HW), and overweight-lipid syndrome (OLS); and surrogates of IR were assessed. The prevalence of MS, OLS, and EWET was significantly higher among Asp299Asp carriers (P < .05). These findings were confirmed using 32 000 bootstrap samples. Surrogate markers of IR were also significantly higher in Asp299Asp carriers (P < .05). Most findings were especially strengthened among individuals with C-reactive protein below the 95th percentile and/or total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio >or=5. This is the first report to find, in Argentinean healthy male blood donors, associations between the Asp299Asp genotype of rs4986790 TLR4 gene polymorphism and high risk for NCEP/ATP III-MS, SLAs, and surrogates of IR. These findings are consistent with previous functional and observational studies showing that Asp299 allele, in comparison with Gly299, is associated with increased TLR4 activation, higher levels of inflammatory cytokines, acute-phase reactants and soluble adhesion molecules, and higher risk of atherosclerosis.

Predicting analysis time in events-driven clinical trials using accumulating time-to-event surrogate information.

PubMed

Wang, Jianming; Ke, Chunlei; Yu, Zhinuan; Fu, Lei; Dornseif, Bruce

2016-05-01

For clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints, predicting the accrual of the events of interest with precision is critical in determining the timing of interim and final analyses. For example, overall survival (OS) is often chosen as the primary efficacy endpoint in oncology studies, with planned interim and final analyses at a pre-specified number of deaths. Often, correlated surrogate information, such as time-to-progression (TTP) and progression-free survival, are also collected as secondary efficacy endpoints. It would be appealing to borrow strength from the surrogate information to improve the precision of the analysis time prediction. Currently available methods in the literature for predicting analysis timings do not consider utilizing the surrogate information. In this article, using OS and TTP as an example, a general parametric model for OS and TTP is proposed, with the assumption that disease progression could change the course of the overall survival. Progression-free survival, related both to OS and TTP, will be handled separately, as it can be derived from OS and TTP. The authors seek to develop a prediction procedure using a Bayesian method and provide detailed implementation strategies under certain assumptions. Simulations are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. An application to a real study is also provided. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

SUMOFLUX: A Generalized Method for Targeted 13C Metabolic Flux Ratio Analysis

PubMed Central

Kogadeeva, Maria

2016-01-01

Metabolic fluxes are a cornerstone of cellular physiology that emerge from a complex interplay of enzymes, carriers, and nutrients. The experimental assessment of in vivo intracellular fluxes using stable isotopic tracers is essential if we are to understand metabolic function and regulation. Flux estimation based on 13C or 2H labeling relies on complex simulation and iterative fitting; processes that necessitate a level of expertise that ordinarily preclude the non-expert user. To overcome this, we have developed SUMOFLUX, a methodology that is broadly applicable to the targeted analysis of 13C-metabolic fluxes. By combining surrogate modeling and machine learning, we trained a predictor to specialize in estimating flux ratios from measurable 13C-data. SUMOFLUX targets specific flux features individually, which makes it fast, user-friendly, applicable to experimental design and robust in terms of experimental noise and exchange flux magnitude. Collectively, we predict that SUMOFLUX's properties realistically pave the way to high-throughput flux analyses. PMID:27626798

Overview of selected surrogate technologies for continuous suspended-sediment monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, J.R.; Gartner, J.W.

2006-01-01

Surrogate technologies for inferring selected characteristics of suspended sediments in surface waters are being tested by the U.S. Geological Survey and several partners with the ultimate goal of augmenting or replacing traditional monitoring methods. Optical properties of water such as turbidity and optical backscatter are the most commonly used surrogates for suspended-sediment concentration, but use of other techniques such as those based on acoustic backscatter, laser diffraction, digital photo-optic, and pressure-difference principles is increasing for concentration and, in some cases, particle-size distribution and flux determinations. The potential benefits of these technologies include acquisition of automated, continuous, quantifiably accurate data obtained with increased safety and at less expense. When suspended-sediment surrogate data meet consensus accuracy criteria and appropriate sediment-record computation techniques are applied, these technologies have the potential to revolutionize the way fluvial-sediment data are collected, analyzed, and disseminated.

Surrogate Modeling of High-Fidelity Fracture Simulations for Real-Time Residual Strength Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spear, Ashley D.; Priest, Amanda R.; Veilleux, Michael G.; Ingraffea, Anthony R.; Hochhalter, Jacob D.

2011-01-01

A surrogate model methodology is described for predicting in real time the residual strength of flight structures with discrete-source damage. Starting with design of experiment, an artificial neural network is developed that takes as input discrete-source damage parameters and outputs a prediction of the structural residual strength. Target residual strength values used to train the artificial neural network are derived from 3D finite element-based fracture simulations. A residual strength test of a metallic, integrally-stiffened panel is simulated to show that crack growth and residual strength are determined more accurately in discrete-source damage cases by using an elastic-plastic fracture framework rather than a linear-elastic fracture mechanics-based method. Improving accuracy of the residual strength training data would, in turn, improve accuracy of the surrogate model. When combined, the surrogate model methodology and high-fidelity fracture simulation framework provide useful tools for adaptive flight technology.

Surrogate Modeling of High-Fidelity Fracture Simulations for Real-Time Residual Strength Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spear, Ashley D.; Priest, Amanda R.; Veilleux, Michael G.; Ingraffea, Anthony R.; Hochhalter, Jacob D.

2011-01-01

A surrogate model methodology is described for predicting, during flight, the residual strength of aircraft structures that sustain discrete-source damage. Starting with design of experiment, an artificial neural network is developed that takes as input discrete-source damage parameters and outputs a prediction of the structural residual strength. Target residual strength values used to train the artificial neural network are derived from 3D finite element-based fracture simulations. Two ductile fracture simulations are presented to show that crack growth and residual strength are determined more accurately in discrete-source damage cases by using an elastic-plastic fracture framework rather than a linear-elastic fracture mechanics-based method. Improving accuracy of the residual strength training data does, in turn, improve accuracy of the surrogate model. When combined, the surrogate model methodology and high fidelity fracture simulation framework provide useful tools for adaptive flight technology.

Ensemble of surrogates-based optimization for identifying an optimal surfactant-enhanced aquifer remediation strategy at heterogeneous DNAPL-contaminated sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Xue; Lu, Wenxi; Hou, Zeyu; Zhao, Haiqing; Na, Jin

2015-11-01

The purpose of this study was to identify an optimal surfactant-enhanced aquifer remediation (SEAR) strategy for aquifers contaminated by dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) based on an ensemble of surrogates-based optimization technique. A saturated heterogeneous medium contaminated by nitrobenzene was selected as case study. A new kind of surrogate-based SEAR optimization employing an ensemble surrogate (ES) model together with a genetic algorithm (GA) is presented. Four methods, namely radial basis function artificial neural network (RBFANN), kriging (KRG), support vector regression (SVR), and kernel extreme learning machines (KELM), were used to create four individual surrogate models, which were then compared. The comparison enabled us to select the two most accurate models (KELM and KRG) to establish an ES model of the SEAR simulation model, and the developed ES model as well as these four stand-alone surrogate models was compared. The results showed that the average relative error of the average nitrobenzene removal rates between the ES model and the simulation model for 20 test samples was 0.8%, which is a high approximation accuracy, and which indicates that the ES model provides more accurate predictions than the stand-alone surrogate models. Then, a nonlinear optimization model was formulated for the minimum cost, and the developed ES model was embedded into this optimization model as a constrained condition. Besides, GA was used to solve the optimization model to provide the optimal SEAR strategy. The developed ensemble surrogate-optimization approach was effective in seeking a cost-effective SEAR strategy for heterogeneous DNAPL-contaminated sites. This research is expected to enrich and develop the theoretical and technical implications for the analysis of remediation strategy optimization of DNAPL-contaminated aquifers.

Ensemble of Surrogates-based Optimization for Identifying an Optimal Surfactant-enhanced Aquifer Remediation Strategy at Heterogeneous DNAPL-contaminated Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, W., Sr.; Xin, X.; Luo, J.; Jiang, X.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, Y.; Chen, M.; Hou, Z.; Ouyang, Q.

2015-12-01

The purpose of this study was to identify an optimal surfactant-enhanced aquifer remediation (SEAR) strategy for aquifers contaminated by dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) based on an ensemble of surrogates-based optimization technique. A saturated heterogeneous medium contaminated by nitrobenzene was selected as case study. A new kind of surrogate-based SEAR optimization employing an ensemble surrogate (ES) model together with a genetic algorithm (GA) is presented. Four methods, namely radial basis function artificial neural network (RBFANN), kriging (KRG), support vector regression (SVR), and kernel extreme learning machines (KELM), were used to create four individual surrogate models, which were then compared. The comparison enabled us to select the two most accurate models (KELM and KRG) to establish an ES model of the SEAR simulation model, and the developed ES model as well as these four stand-alone surrogate models was compared. The results showed that the average relative error of the average nitrobenzene removal rates between the ES model and the simulation model for 20 test samples was 0.8%, which is a high approximation accuracy, and which indicates that the ES model provides more accurate predictions than the stand-alone surrogate models. Then, a nonlinear optimization model was formulated for the minimum cost, and the developed ES model was embedded into this optimization model as a constrained condition. Besides, GA was used to solve the optimization model to provide the optimal SEAR strategy. The developed ensemble surrogate-optimization approach was effective in seeking a cost-effective SEAR strategy for heterogeneous DNAPL-contaminated sites. This research is expected to enrich and develop the theoretical and technical implications for the analysis of remediation strategy optimization of DNAPL-contaminated aquifers.

Robust best linear estimator for Cox regression with instrumental variables in whole cohort and surrogates with additive measurement error in calibration sample.

PubMed

Wang, Ching-Yun; Song, Xiao

2016-11-01

Biomedical researchers are often interested in estimating the effect of an environmental exposure in relation to a chronic disease endpoint. However, the exposure variable of interest may be measured with errors. In a subset of the whole cohort, a surrogate variable is available for the true unobserved exposure variable. The surrogate variable satisfies an additive measurement error model, but it may not have repeated measurements. The subset in which the surrogate variables are available is called a calibration sample. In addition to the surrogate variables that are available among the subjects in the calibration sample, we consider the situation when there is an instrumental variable available for all study subjects. An instrumental variable is correlated with the unobserved true exposure variable, and hence can be useful in the estimation of the regression coefficients. In this paper, we propose a nonparametric method for Cox regression using the observed data from the whole cohort. The nonparametric estimator is the best linear combination of a nonparametric correction estimator from the calibration sample and the difference of the naive estimators from the calibration sample and the whole cohort. The asymptotic distribution is derived, and the finite sample performance of the proposed estimator is examined via intensive simulation studies. The methods are applied to the Nutritional Biomarkers Study of the Women's Health Initiative. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Parametric geometric model and hydrodynamic shape optimization of a flying-wing structure underwater glider

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhen-yu; Yu, Jian-cheng; Zhang, Ai-qun; Wang, Ya-xing; Zhao, Wen-tao

2017-12-01

Combining high precision numerical analysis methods with optimization algorithms to make a systematic exploration of a design space has become an important topic in the modern design methods. During the design process of an underwater glider's flying-wing structure, a surrogate model is introduced to decrease the computation time for a high precision analysis. By these means, the contradiction between precision and efficiency is solved effectively. Based on the parametric geometry modeling, mesh generation and computational fluid dynamics analysis, a surrogate model is constructed by adopting the design of experiment (DOE) theory to solve the multi-objects design optimization problem of the underwater glider. The procedure of a surrogate model construction is presented, and the Gaussian kernel function is specifically discussed. The Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is applied to hydrodynamic design optimization. The hydrodynamic performance of the optimized flying-wing structure underwater glider increases by 9.1%.

On global optimization using an estimate of Lipschitz constant and simplicial partition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gimbutas, Albertas; Žilinskas, Antanas

2016-10-01

A new algorithm is proposed for finding the global minimum of a multi-variate black-box Lipschitz function with an unknown Lipschitz constant. The feasible region is initially partitioned into simplices; in the subsequent iteration, the most suitable simplices are selected and bisected via the middle point of the longest edge. The suitability of a simplex for bisection is evaluated by minimizing of a surrogate function which mimics the lower bound for the considered objective function over that simplex. The surrogate function is defined using an estimate of the Lipschitz constant and the objective function values at the vertices of a simplex. The novelty of the algorithm is the sophisticated method of estimating the Lipschitz constant, and the appropriate method to minimize the surrogate function. The proposed algorithm was tested using 600 random test problems of different complexity, showing competitive results with two popular advanced algorithms which are based on similar assumptions.

Overview of selected surrogate technologies for high-temporal resolution suspended-sediment monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, John R.; Gartner, Jeffrey W.

2010-01-01

Traditional methods for characterizing selected properties of suspended sediments in rivers are being augmented and in some cases replaced by cost-effective surrogate instruments and methods that produce a temporally dense time series of quantifiably accurate data for use primarily in sediment-flux computations. Turbidity is the most common such surrogate technology, and the first to be sanctioned by the U.S. Geological Survey for use in producing data used in concert with water-discharge data to compute sediment concentrations and fluxes for storage in the National Water Information System. Other technologies, including laser-diffraction, digital photo-optic, acoustic-attenuation and backscatter, and pressure-difference techniques are being evaluated for producing reliable sediment concentration and, in some cases, particle-size distribution data. Each technology addresses a niche for sediment monitoring. Their performances range from compelling to disappointing. Some of these technologies have the potential to revolutionize fluvial-sediment data collection, analysis, and availability.

Experimental verification of ion stopping power prediction from dual energy CT data in tissue surrogates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farace, Paolo

2014-11-01

A two-steps procedure is presented to convert dual-energy CT data to stopping power ratio (SPR), relative to water. In the first step the relative electron density (RED) is calculated from dual-energy CT-numbers by means of a bi-linear relationship: RED = a HUscH + b HUscL + c, where HUscH and HUscL are scaled units (HUsc = HU + 1000) acquired at high and low energy respectively, and the three parameters a, b and c has to be determined for each CT scanner. In the second step the RED values were converted into SPR by means of published poly-line functions, which are invariant as they do not depend on a specific CT scanner. The comparison with other methods provides encouraging results, with residual SPR error on human tissue within 1%. The distinctive features of the proposed method are its simplicity and the generality of the conversion functions.

Experimental verification of ion stopping power prediction from dual energy CT data in tissue surrogates.

PubMed

Farace, Paolo

2014-11-21

A two-steps procedure is presented to convert dual-energy CT data to stopping power ratio (SPR), relative to water. In the first step the relative electron density (RED) is calculated from dual-energy CT-numbers by means of a bi-linear relationship: RED=a HUscH+b HUscL+c, where HUscH and HUscL are scaled units (HUsc=HU+1000) acquired at high and low energy respectively, and the three parameters a, b and c has to be determined for each CT scanner. In the second step the RED values were converted into SPR by means of published poly-line functions, which are invariant as they do not depend on a specific CT scanner. The comparison with other methods provides encouraging results, with residual SPR error on human tissue within 1%. The distinctive features of the proposed method are its simplicity and the generality of the conversion functions.

Laboratory Testing of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Surrogate Waste Materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broome, S.; Bronowski, D.; Pfeifle, T.; Herrick, C. G.

2011-12-01

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is a U.S. Department of Energy geological repository for the permanent disposal of defense-related transuranic (TRU) waste. The waste is emplaced in rooms excavated in the bedded Salado salt formation at a depth of 655 m below the ground surface. After emplacement of the waste, the repository will be sealed and decommissioned. WIPP Performance Assessment modeling of the underground material response requires a full and accurate understanding of coupled mechanical, hydrological, and geochemical processes and how they evolve with time. This study was part of a broader test program focused on room closure, specifically the compaction behavior of waste and the constitutive relations to model this behavior. The goal of this study was to develop an improved waste constitutive model. The model parameters are developed based on a well designed set of test data. The constitutive model will then be used to realistically model evolution of the underground and to better understand the impacts on repository performance. The present study results are focused on laboratory testing of surrogate waste materials. The surrogate wastes correspond to a conservative estimate of the degraded containers and TRU waste materials after the 10,000 year regulatory period. Testing consists of hydrostatic, uniaxial, and triaxial tests performed on surrogate waste recipes that were previously developed by Hansen et al. (1997). These recipes can be divided into materials that simulate 50% and 100% degraded waste by weight. The percent degradation indicates the anticipated amount of iron corrosion, as well as the decomposition of cellulosics, plastics, and rubbers. Axial, lateral, and volumetric strain and axial and lateral stress measurements were made. Two unique testing techniques were developed during the course of the experimental program. The first involves the use of dilatometry to measure sample volumetric strain under a hydrostatic condition. Bulk moduli of the samples measured using this technique were consistent with those measured using more conventional methods. The second technique involved performing triaxial tests under lateral strain control. By limiting the lateral strain to zero by controlling the applied confining pressure while loading the specimen axially in compression, one can maintain a right-circular cylindrical geometry even under large deformations. This technique is preferred over standard triaxial testing methods which result in inhomogeneous deformation or "barreling". Manifestations of the inhomogeneous deformation included non-uniform stress states, as well as unrealistic Poisson's ratios (> 0.5) or those that vary significantly along the length of the specimen. Zero lateral strain controlled tests yield a more uniform stress state, and admissible and uniform values of Poisson's ratio. Hansen, F.D., Knowles, M.K., et al. 1997. Description and Evaluation of a Mechanistically Based Conceptual Model for Spall. SAND97-1369. Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Revisiting photodynamic therapy dosimetry: reductionist & surrogate approaches to facilitate clinical success

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pogue, Brian W.; Elliott, Jonathan T.; Kanick, Stephen C.; Davis, Scott C.; Samkoe, Kimberley S.; Maytin, Edward V.; Pereira, Stephen P.; Hasan, Tayyaba

2016-04-01

Photodynamic therapy (PDT) can be a highly complex treatment, with many parameters influencing treatment efficacy. The extent to which dosimetry is used to monitor and standardize treatment delivery varies widely, ranging from measurement of a single surrogate marker to comprehensive approaches that aim to measure or estimate as many relevant parameters as possible. Today, most clinical PDT treatments are still administered with little more than application of a prescribed drug dose and timed light delivery, and thus the role of patient-specific dosimetry has not reached widespread clinical adoption. This disconnect is at least partly due to the inherent conflict between the need to measure and understand multiple parameters in vivo in order to optimize treatment, and the need for expedience in the clinic and in the regulatory and commercialization process. Thus, a methodical approach to selecting primary dosimetry metrics is required at each stage of translation of a treatment procedure, moving from complex measurements to understand PDT mechanisms in pre-clinical and early phase I trials, towards the identification and application of essential dose-limiting and/or surrogate measurements in phase II/III trials. If successful, identifying the essential and/or reliable surrogate dosimetry measurements should help facilitate increased adoption of clinical PDT. In this paper, examples of essential dosimetry points and surrogate dosimetry tools that may be implemented in phase II/III trials are discussed. For example, the treatment efficacy as limited by light penetration in interstitial PDT may be predicted by the amount of contrast uptake in CT, and so this could be utilized as a surrogate dosimetry measurement to prescribe light doses based upon pre-treatment contrast. Success of clinical ALA-based skin lesion treatment is predicted almost uniquely by the explicit or implicit measurements of photosensitizer and photobleaching, yet the individualization of treatment based upon each patients measured bleaching needs to be attempted. In the case of ALA, lack of PpIX is more likely an indicator that alternative PpIX production methods must be implemented. Parsimonious dosimetry, using surrogate measurements that are clinically acceptable, might strategically help to advance PDT in a medical world that is increasingly cost and time sensitive. Careful attention to methodologies that can identify and advance the most critical dosimetric measurements, either direct or surrogate, are needed to ensure successful incorporation of PDT into niche clinical procedures.

Exposure assessment in investigations of waterborne illness: a quantitative estimate of measurement error

PubMed Central

Jones, Andria Q; Dewey, Catherine E; Doré, Kathryn; Majowicz, Shannon E; McEwen, Scott A; Waltner-Toews, David

2006-01-01

Background Exposure assessment is typically the greatest weakness of epidemiologic studies of disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water, which largely stems from the difficulty in obtaining accurate data on individual-level water consumption patterns and activity. Thus, surrogate measures for such waterborne exposures are commonly used. Little attention however, has been directed towards formal validation of these measures. Methods We conducted a study in the City of Hamilton, Ontario (Canada) in 2001–2002, to assess the accuracy of two surrogate measures of home water source: (a) urban/rural status as assigned using residential postal codes, and (b) mapping of residential postal codes to municipal water systems within a Geographic Information System (GIS). We then assessed the accuracy of a commonly-used surrogate measure of an individual's actual drinking water source, namely, their home water source. Results The surrogates for home water source provided good classification of residents served by municipal water systems (approximately 98% predictive value), but did not perform well in classifying those served by private water systems (average: 63.5% predictive value). More importantly, we found that home water source was a poor surrogate measure of the individuals' actual drinking water source(s), being associated with high misclassification errors. Conclusion This study demonstrated substantial misclassification errors associated with a surrogate measure commonly used in studies of drinking water disinfection byproducts. Further, the limited accuracy of two surrogate measures of an individual's home water source heeds caution in their use in exposure classification methodology. While these surrogates are inexpensive and convenient, they should not be substituted for direct collection of accurate data pertaining to the subjects' waterborne disease exposure. In instances where such surrogates must be used, estimation of the misclassification and its subsequent effects are recommended for the interpretation and communication of results. Our results also lend support for further investigation into the quantification of the exposure misclassification associated with these surrogate measures, which would provide useful estimates for consideration in interpretation of waterborne disease studies. PMID:16729887

Evaluation of an exposure assessment used in epidemiological studies of diesel exhaust and lung cancer in underground mines

PubMed Central

Crump, Kenny; Van Landingham, Cynthia

2012-01-01

NIOSH/NCI (National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health and National Cancer Institute) developed exposure estimates for respirable elemental carbon (REC) as a surrogate for exposure to diesel exhaust (DE) for different jobs in eight underground mines by year beginning in the 1940s—1960s when diesel equipment was first introduced into these mines. These estimates played a key role in subsequent epidemiological analyses of the potential relationship between exposure to DE and lung cancer conducted in these mines. We report here on a reanalysis of some of the data from this exposure assessment. Because samples of REC were limited primarily to 1998–2001, NIOSH/NCI used carbon monoxide (CO) as a surrogate for REC. In addition, because CO samples were limited, particularly in the earlier years, they used the ratio of diesel horsepower (HP) to the mine air exhaust rate as a surrogate for CO. There are considerable uncertainties connected with each of these surrogate-based steps. The estimates of HP appear to involve considerable uncertainty, although we had no data upon which to evaluate the magnitude of this uncertainty. A sizable percentage (45%) of the CO samples used in the HP to CO model was below the detection limit which required NIOSH/NCI to assign CO values to these samples. In their preferred REC estimates, NIOSH/NCI assumed a linear relation between C0 and REC, although they provided no credible support for that assumption. Their assumption of a stable relationship between HP and CO also is questionable, and our reanalysis found a statistically significant relationship in only one-half of the mines. We re-estimated yearly REC exposures mainly using NIOSH/NCI methods but with some important differences: (i) rather than simply assuming a linear relationship, we used data from the mines to estimate the CO—REC relationship; (ii) we used a different method for assigning values to nondetect CO measurements; and (iii) we took account of statistical uncertainty to estimate bounds for REC exposures. This exercise yielded significantly different exposure estimates than estimated by NIOSH/NCI. However, this analysis did not incorporate the full range of uncertainty in REC exposures because of additional uncertainties in the assumptions underlying the modeling and in the underlying data (e.g. HP and mine exhaust rates). Estimating historical exposures in a cohort is generally a very difficult undertaking. However, this should not prevent one from recognizing the uncertainty in the resulting estimates in any use made of them. PMID:22594934

The national Fire and Fire Surrogate study: effects of fuel reduction methods on forest vegetation structure and fuels

Treesearch

Dylan W. Schwilk; Jon E. Keeley; Eric E. Knapp; James Mciver; John D. Bailey; Christopher J. Fettig; Carl E. Fiedler; Richy J. Harrod; Jason J. Moghaddas; Kenneth W. Outcalt; Carl N. Skinner; Scott L. Stephens; Thomas A. Waldrop; Daniel A. Yaussy; Andrew Youngblood

2009-01-01

Changes in vegetation and fuels were evaluated from measurements taken before and after fuel reduction treatments (prescribed fire, mechanical treatments, and the combination of the two) at 12 Fire and Fire Surrogate (FFS) sites located in forests with a surface fire regime across the conterminous United States. To test the relative effectiveness of fuel reduction...

Reliability based design including future tests and multiagent approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villanueva, Diane

The initial stages of reliability-based design optimization involve the formulation of objective functions and constraints, and building a model to estimate the reliability of the design with quantified uncertainties. However, even experienced hands often overlook important objective functions and constraints that affect the design. In addition, uncertainty reduction measures, such as tests and redesign, are often not considered in reliability calculations during the initial stages. This research considers two areas that concern the design of engineering systems: 1) the trade-off of the effect of a test and post-test redesign on reliability and cost and 2) the search for multiple candidate designs as insurance against unforeseen faults in some designs. In this research, a methodology was developed to estimate the effect of a single future test and post-test redesign on reliability and cost. The methodology uses assumed distributions of computational and experimental errors with re-design rules to simulate alternative future test and redesign outcomes to form a probabilistic estimate of the reliability and cost for a given design. Further, it was explored how modeling a future test and redesign provides a company an opportunity to balance development costs versus performance by simultaneously designing the design and the post-test redesign rules during the initial design stage. The second area of this research considers the use of dynamic local surrogates, or surrogate-based agents, to locate multiple candidate designs. Surrogate-based global optimization algorithms often require search in multiple candidate regions of design space, expending most of the computation needed to define multiple alternate designs. Thus, focusing on solely locating the best design may be wasteful. We extended adaptive sampling surrogate techniques to locate multiple optima by building local surrogates in sub-regions of the design space to identify optima. The efficiency of this method was studied, and the method was compared to other surrogate-based optimization methods that aim to locate the global optimum using two two-dimensional test functions, a six-dimensional test function, and a five-dimensional engineering example.

Skeletal mechanism generation for surrogate fuels using directed relation graph with error propagation and sensitivity analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Niemeyer, Kyle E.; Sung, Chih-Jen; Raju, Mandhapati P.

2010-09-15

A novel implementation for the skeletal reduction of large detailed reaction mechanisms using the directed relation graph with error propagation and sensitivity analysis (DRGEPSA) is developed and presented with examples for three hydrocarbon components, n-heptane, iso-octane, and n-decane, relevant to surrogate fuel development. DRGEPSA integrates two previously developed methods, directed relation graph-aided sensitivity analysis (DRGASA) and directed relation graph with error propagation (DRGEP), by first applying DRGEP to efficiently remove many unimportant species prior to sensitivity analysis to further remove unimportant species, producing an optimally small skeletal mechanism for a given error limit. It is illustrated that the combination ofmore » the DRGEP and DRGASA methods allows the DRGEPSA approach to overcome the weaknesses of each, specifically that DRGEP cannot identify all unimportant species and that DRGASA shields unimportant species from removal. Skeletal mechanisms for n-heptane and iso-octane generated using the DRGEP, DRGASA, and DRGEPSA methods are presented and compared to illustrate the improvement of DRGEPSA. From a detailed reaction mechanism for n-alkanes covering n-octane to n-hexadecane with 2115 species and 8157 reactions, two skeletal mechanisms for n-decane generated using DRGEPSA, one covering a comprehensive range of temperature, pressure, and equivalence ratio conditions for autoignition and the other limited to high temperatures, are presented and validated. The comprehensive skeletal mechanism consists of 202 species and 846 reactions and the high-temperature skeletal mechanism consists of 51 species and 256 reactions. Both mechanisms are further demonstrated to well reproduce the results of the detailed mechanism in perfectly-stirred reactor and laminar flame simulations over a wide range of conditions. The comprehensive and high-temperature n-decane skeletal mechanisms are included as supplementary material with this article. (author)« less

WE-AB-303-11: Verification of a Deformable 4DCT Motion Model for Lung Tumor Tracking Using Different Driving Surrogates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Woelfelschneider, J; Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Erlangen, DE; Seregni, M

2015-06-15

Purpose: Tumor tracking is an advanced technique to treat intra-fractionally moving tumors. The aim of this study is to validate a surrogate-driven model based on four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) that is able to predict CT volumes corresponding to arbitrary respiratory states. Further, the comparison of three different driving surrogates is evaluated. Methods: This study is based on multiple 4DCTs of two patients treated for bronchial carcinoma and metastasis. Analyses for 18 additional patients are currently ongoing. The motion model was estimated from the planning 4DCT through deformable image registration. To predict a certain phase of a follow-up 4DCT, the modelmore » considers for inter-fractional variations (baseline correction) and intra-fractional respiratory parameters (amplitude and phase) derived from surrogates. In this evaluation, three different approaches were used to extract the motion surrogate: for each 4DCT phase, the 3D thoraco-abdominal surface motion, the body volume and the anterior-posterior motion of a virtual single external marker defined on the sternum were investigated. The estimated volumes resulting from the model were compared to the ground-truth clinical 4DCTs using absolute HU differences in the lung volume and landmarks localized using the Scale Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT). Results: The results show absolute HU differences between estimated and ground-truth images with median values limited to 55 HU and inter-quartile ranges (IQR) lower than 100 HU. Median 3D distances between about 1500 matching landmarks are below 2 mm for 3D surface motion and body volume methods. The single marker surrogates Result in increased median distances up to 0.6 mm. Analyses for the extended database incl. 20 patients are currently in progress. Conclusion: The results depend mainly on the image quality of the initial 4DCTs and the deformable image registration. All investigated surrogates can be used to estimate follow-up 4DCT phases, however uncertainties decrease for three-dimensional approaches. This work was funded in parts by the German Research Council (DFG) - KFO 214/2.« less

76 FR 37321 - Fresh Garlic From the People's Republic of China: Final Results and Final Rescission, in Part, of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-27

... members of the FGPA are Christopher Ranch L.L.C., The Garlic Company, Valley Garlic, and Vessey and... submitted rebuttal comments concerning the valuation of factors of production. On February 4, 2011, Xinboda...: Wholesale Price Index Comment 5: Xinboda's Water Valuation Comment 6: Surrogate Financial Ratios Comment 7...

The association of the triglyceride-to-HDL cholesterol ratio with insulin resistance in White European and South Asian men and women.

PubMed

Mostafa, Samiul A; Davies, Melanie J; Morris, Danielle H; Yates, Tom; Srinivasan, Balasubramanian Thiagarajan; Webb, David; Brady, Emer; Khunti, Kamlesh

2012-01-01

There is recent interest surrounding the use of the triglyceride-to-HDL cholesterol ratio as a surrogate marker of insulin resistance in clinical practice, as it may identify people at high risk of developing diabetes or its complications. However, it has been suggested using this lipid ratio may not be appropriate for measuring insulin resistance in African-Americans, particularly women. We investigated if this inconsistency extended to South Asian women in a UK multi-ethnic cohort of White Europeans and South Asians. Cross-sectional analysis was done of 729 participants from the ADDITION-Leicester study from 2005 to 2009. The association between tertiles of triglyceride-to-HDL cholesterol ratio to fasting insulin, homeostatic model of assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA1-IR), quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI) and glucose: insulin ratio was examined with adjustment for confounding variables. Incremental tertiles of the triglyceride-to-HDL cholesterol ratio demonstrated a significant positive association with levels of fasting insulin, HOMA1-IR, glucose: insulin ratio and a negative association with QUICKI in White European men (n = 255) and women (n = 250) and South Asian men (n = 124) (all p<0.05), but not South Asian women (n = 100). A significant interaction was demonstrated between sex and triglyceride-to-HDL cholesterol ratio tertiles in South Asians only (p<0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for triglyceride-to-HDL cholesterol ratio to detect insulin resistance, defined as the cohort HOMA1-IR ≥ 75(th) percentile (3.08), was 0.74 (0.67 to 0.81), 0.72 (0.65 to 0.79), 0.75 (0.66 to 0.85) and 0.67 (0.56 to 0.78) in White European men and women, South Asian men and women respectively. The optimal cut-points for detecting insulin resistance were 0.9-1.7 in mmol/l (2.0-3.8 in mg/dl) for the triglyceride-to-HDL ratio. In South Asian women the triglyceride-to-HDL cholesterol ratio was not associated with insulin resistance; therefore there may be limitations in its use as a surrogate marker in this group.

Comparative study of surrogate models for groundwater contamination source identification at DNAPL-contaminated sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Zeyu; Lu, Wenxi

2018-05-01

Knowledge of groundwater contamination sources is critical for effectively protecting groundwater resources, estimating risks, mitigating disaster, and designing remediation strategies. Many methods for groundwater contamination source identification (GCSI) have been developed in recent years, including the simulation-optimization technique. This study proposes utilizing a support vector regression (SVR) model and a kernel extreme learning machine (KELM) model to enrich the content of the surrogate model. The surrogate model was itself key in replacing the simulation model, reducing the huge computational burden of iterations in the simulation-optimization technique to solve GCSI problems, especially in GCSI problems of aquifers contaminated by dense nonaqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs). A comparative study between the Kriging, SVR, and KELM models is reported. Additionally, there is analysis of the influence of parameter optimization and the structure of the training sample dataset on the approximation accuracy of the surrogate model. It was found that the KELM model was the most accurate surrogate model, and its performance was significantly improved after parameter optimization. The approximation accuracy of the surrogate model to the simulation model did not always improve with increasing numbers of training samples. Using the appropriate number of training samples was critical for improving the performance of the surrogate model and avoiding unnecessary computational workload. It was concluded that the KELM model developed in this work could reasonably predict system responses in given operation conditions. Replacing the simulation model with a KELM model considerably reduced the computational burden of the simulation-optimization process and also maintained high computation accuracy.

Prognostic factors versus markers of response to treatment versus surrogate endpoints: Three different concepts.

PubMed

Sormani, Maria Pia

2017-03-01

Multiple sclerosis is a highly heterogeneous disease; the quantitative assessment of disease progression is problematic for many reasons, including the lack of objective methods to measure disability and the long follow-up times needed to detect relevant and stable changes. For these reasons, the importance of prognostic markers, markers of response to treatments and of surrogate endpoints, is crucial in multiple sclerosis research. Aim of this report is to clarify some basic definitions and methodological issues about baseline factors to be considered prognostic markers or markers of response to treatment; to define the dynamic role that variables must have to be considered surrogate markers in relation to specific treatments.

Magnetic resonance imaging as a surrogate outcome for multiple sclerosis relapses

PubMed Central

Petkau, J; Reingold, SC; Held, U; Cutter, GR; Fleming, TR; Hughes, MD; Miller, DH; McFarland, HF; Wolinsky, JS

2009-01-01

Background Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of lesions in the brain may be the best current candidate for a surrogate biological marker of clinical outcomes in relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis (MS), based on its role as an objective indicator of disease pathology. No biological surrogate marker has yet been validated for MS clinical outcomes. Objective The objective of this study was to use a multi-phased study to determine if a valid surrogate relationship could be demonstrated between counts of contrast enhancing lesions (CELs) and occurrence of relapses in MS. Methods We examined correlations for the concurrent and predictive relationship between CELs over 6 months and MS relapses over the same 6 months and an additional 6 months (total: 12 months), using available data on untreated patients from a large clinical trial and natural history database. Results Concurrent and predictive correlations were inadequate to justify continuation of this study to the planned additional phases required to demonstrate a surrogate relationship between CELs and MS relapses. Conclusions Confidence intervals for correlations between CELs and MS relapses exclude the possibility that CELs can be a good surrogate for relapses over the time scales we investigated. Further exploration of surrogacy between MRI measures and MS clinical outcomes may require improved datasets, the development of MRI techniques that couple better to clinical disease, and the ability to test a wide range of imaging- and clinically-based hypotheses for surrogacy. PMID:18535021

An architecture for efficient gravitational wave parameter estimation with multimodal linear surrogate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Shaughnessy, Richard; Blackman, Jonathan; Field, Scott E.

2017-07-01

The recent direct observation of gravitational waves has further emphasized the desire for fast, low-cost, and accurate methods to infer the parameters of gravitational wave sources. Due to expense in waveform generation and data handling, the cost of evaluating the likelihood function limits the computational performance of these calculations. Building on recently developed surrogate models and a novel parameter estimation pipeline, we show how to quickly generate the likelihood function as an analytic, closed-form expression. Using a straightforward variant of a production-scale parameter estimation code, we demonstrate our method using surrogate models of effective-one-body and numerical relativity waveforms. Our study is the first time these models have been used for parameter estimation and one of the first ever parameter estimation calculations with multi-modal numerical relativity waveforms, which include all \\ell ≤slant 4 modes. Our grid-free method enables rapid parameter estimation for any waveform with a suitable reduced-order model. The methods described in this paper may also find use in other data analysis studies, such as vetting coincident events or the computation of the coalescing-compact-binary detection statistic.

Liver fibrosis in human immunodeficiency virus/hepatitis C virus coinfection: Diagnostic methods and clinical impact

PubMed Central

Sagnelli, Caterina; Martini, Salvatore; Pisaturo, Mariantonietta; Pasquale, Giuseppe; Macera, Margherita; Zampino, Rosa; Coppola, Nicola; Sagnelli, Evangelista

2015-01-01

Several non-invasive surrogate methods have recently challenged the main role of liver biopsy in assessing liver fibrosis in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-monoinfected and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/HCV-coinfected patients, applied to avoid the well-known side effects of liver puncture. Serological tests involve the determination of biochemical markers of synthesis or degradation of fibrosis, tests not readily available in clinical practice, or combinations of routine tests used in chronic hepatitis and HIV/HCV coinfection. Several radiologic techniques have also been proposed, some of which commonly used in clinical practice. The studies performed to compare the prognostic value of non-invasive surrogate methods with that of the degree of liver fibrosis assessed on liver tissue have not as yet provided conclusive results. Each surrogate technique has shown some limitations, including the risk of over- or under-estimating the extent of liver fibrosis. The current knowledge on liver fibrosis in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients will be summarized in this review article, which is addressed in particular to physicians involved in this setting in their clinical practice. PMID:26523204

Atomic Radius and Charge Parameter Uncertainty in Biomolecular Solvation Energy Calculations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Xiu; Lei, Huan; Gao, Peiyuan

Atomic radii and charges are two major parameters used in implicit solvent electrostatics and energy calculations. The optimization problem for charges and radii is under-determined, leading to uncertainty in the values of these parameters and in the results of solvation energy calculations using these parameters. This paper presents a method for quantifying this uncertainty in solvation energies using surrogate models based on generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansions. There are relatively few atom types used to specify radii parameters in implicit solvation calculations; therefore, surrogate models for these low-dimensional spaces could be constructed using least-squares fitting. However, there are many moremore » types of atomic charges; therefore, construction of surrogate models for the charge parameter space required compressed sensing combined with an iterative rotation method to enhance problem sparsity. We present results for the uncertainty in small molecule solvation energies based on these approaches. Additionally, we explore the correlation between uncertainties due to radii and charges which motivates the need for future work in uncertainty quantification methods for high-dimensional parameter spaces.« less

Development of a surrogate biomodel for the investigation of clubfoot bracing.

PubMed

Dimeo, Andrew J; Lalush, David S; Grant, Edward; Morcuende, Jose A

2012-01-01

Congenital talipes equinovarus (clubfoot) is a complex deformity of the lower extremity and foot occurring in 1/1000 live births. Regardless of treatment, whether conservative or surgical, clubfoot has a stubborn tendency to relapse, thus requiring postcorrection bracing. However, to date, there are no investigations specifically focused on clubfoot bracing from a bioengineering perspective. This study applied engineering principles to clubfoot bracing through construction of a surrogate biomodel. The surrogate was developed to represent an average 5-year-old human subject capable of biomechanical characteristics including joint articulation and kinematics. The components include skeleton, articulating joints, muscle-tendon systems, and ligaments. A protocol was developed to measure muscle-tendon tension in resting and braced positions of the surrogate. Measurement error ranged from 1% to 6% and was considered variance due to brace and investigator. In conclusion, this study shows that surrogate biomodeling is an accurate and repeatable method to investigate clubfoot bracing. The methodology is an effective means to evaluate wide ranging brace options and can be used to assist in future brace development and the tuning of brace parameters. Such patient-specific brace tuning may also lead to advanced braces that increase compliance.

Developmental biotechnology for aquaculture, with special reference to surrogate production in teleost fishes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamaha, Etsuro; Saito, Taiju; Goto-Kazeto, Rie; Arai, Katsutoshi

2007-07-01

This review introduces surrogate production as a new technique for fish-seed production in aquaculture. Surrogate production in fish is a technique used to obtain the gametes of a certain genotype through the gonad of another genotype. It is achieved by inducing germ-line chimerism between different species during early development. Primordial germ cells (PGCs) are the key material of this technique to induce germ-line chimera. In several species, it has been reported that PGCs differentiated from the blastomeres inherited some maternally supplied mRNA located in the terminal regions of the early cleavage furrows. PGCs from donor species (or strains) are isolated and transplanted into host species to induce the germ-line chimera. Four methods for inducing germ-line chimera are described: blastomere transplantation, blastoderm-graft transplantation, transplantation of PGC from the genital ridge, and transplantation visualised PGC with GFP fluorescence. Several problems preventing the successful induction of germ-line chimera in various fish species are discussed. Surrogate production, however, opens the possibility of efficient fish-seed production and effective breeding and transfer of biodiversity to an aquaculture strain. Conservation and efficient utilisation of genetic resources will be achieved through surrogate production combined with the cryopreservation of PGCs.

An evaluation of motor evoked potential surrogate endpoints during intracranial vascular procedures.

PubMed

Holdefer, R N; MacDonald, D B; Guo, L; Skinner, S A

2016-02-01

MEPs are used as surrogate endpoints to predict the effectiveness of interventions, made in response to MEP deterioration, in avoiding new postoperative deficits. MEP performance in capturing intervention effects on these outcomes was investigated. A meta-analysis of studies using MEPs during intracranial vascular surgeries between 2003 and 2014 was performed. MEP diagnostic performance and relative risk of new postoperative deficits for reversible compared with irreversible MEP changes were determined. Intervention efficacy in reversing MEP deterioration and postoperative outcomes was compared across studies. MEP diagnostic performance compared favorably with that of other tests used in medicine, with all likelihood ratios >10. The summary relative risk comparing reversible and irreversible changes was 0.40, indicating a 60% decrease in new deficits for reversible MEP changes. The proportion of MEP deteriorations which recovered was negatively correlated with the proportion of new postoperative deficits (r=-0.81, p<.005). The effectiveness of interventions in recovering an MEP decline was predictive of preserved neurologic status. MEPs are provisionally qualified as surrogate endpoints given potentially major harms to the patient if they are not used, compared to the minimal harms and costs associated with their use. The performance of MEPs as substitute, or surrogate, endpoints during intracranial vascular surgeries for new deficits in motor strength in the immediate postoperative period was directly assessed for ten recent studies. Copyright © 2015 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scout-MRM: Multiplexed Targeted Mass Spectrometry-Based Assay without Retention Time Scheduling Exemplified by Dickeya dadantii Proteomic Analysis during Plant Infection.

PubMed

Rougemont, Blandine; Bontemps Gallo, Sébastien; Ayciriex, Sophie; Carrière, Romain; Hondermarck, Hubert; Lacroix, Jean Marie; Le Blanc, J C Yves; Lemoine, Jérôme

2017-02-07

Targeted mass spectrometry of a surrogate peptide panel is a powerful method to study the dynamics of protein networks, but chromatographic time scheduling remains a major limitation for dissemination and implementation of robust and large multiplexed assays. We unveil a Multiple Reaction Monitoring method (Scout-MRM) where the use of spiked scout peptides triggers complex transition lists, regardless of the retention time of targeted surrogate peptides. The interest of Scout-MRM method regarding the retention time independency, multiplexing capability, reproducibility, and putative interest in facilitating method transfer was illustrated by a 782-peptide-plex relative assay targeting 445 proteins of the phytopathogen Dickeya dadantii during plant infection.

A surrogate accelerated multicanonical Monte Carlo method for uncertainty quantification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Keyi; Li, Jinglai

2016-09-01

In this work we consider a class of uncertainty quantification problems where the system performance or reliability is characterized by a scalar parameter y. The performance parameter y is random due to the presence of various sources of uncertainty in the system, and our goal is to estimate the probability density function (PDF) of y. We propose to use the multicanonical Monte Carlo (MMC) method, a special type of adaptive importance sampling algorithms, to compute the PDF of interest. Moreover, we develop an adaptive algorithm to construct local Gaussian process surrogates to further accelerate the MMC iterations. With numerical examples we demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve several orders of magnitudes of speedup over the standard Monte Carlo methods.

Comparison of false-negative rates and limits of detection following macrofoam-swab sampling of Bacillus anthracis surrogates via Rapid Viability PCR and plate culture.

PubMed

Hutchison, J R; Piepel, G F; Amidan, B G; Hess, B M; Sydor, M A; Deatherage Kaiser, B L

2018-05-01

We evaluated the effects of Bacillus anthracis surrogates, low surface concentrations, surface materials and assay methods on false-negative rate (FNR) and limit of detection (LOD 95 ) for recovering Bacillus spores using a macrofoam-swab sampling procedure. Bacillus anthracis Sterne or Bacillus atrophaeus Nakamura spores were deposited over a range of low target concentrations (2-500 per coupon) onto glass, stainless steel, vinyl tile and plastic. Samples were assayed using a modified Rapid Viability-PCR (mRV-PCR) method and the traditional plate culture method to obtain FNR and LOD 95 results. Mean FNRs tended to be lower for mRV-PCR compared to culturing, and increased as spore concentration decreased for all surface materials. Surface material, but not B. anthracis surrogate, influenced FNRs with the mRV-PCR method. The mRV-PCR LOD 95 was lowest for glass and highest for vinyl tile. LOD 95 values overall were lower for mRV-PCR than for the culture method. This study adds to the limited data on FNR and LOD 95 for mRV-PCR and culturing methods with low concentrations of B. anthracis sampled from various surface materials by the CDC macrofoam-swab method. These are key inputs for planning characterization and clearance studies for low contamination levels of B. anthracis. © 2018 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

Modified cross sample entropy and surrogate data analysis method for financial time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yi; Shang, Pengjian

2015-09-01

For researching multiscale behaviors from the angle of entropy, we propose a modified cross sample entropy (MCSE) and combine surrogate data analysis with it in order to compute entropy differences between original dynamics and surrogate series (MCSDiff). MCSDiff is applied to simulated signals to show accuracy and then employed to US and Chinese stock markets. We illustrate the presence of multiscale behavior in the MCSDiff results and reveal that there are synchrony containing in the original financial time series and they have some intrinsic relations, which are destroyed by surrogate data analysis. Furthermore, the multifractal behaviors of cross-correlations between these financial time series are investigated by multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) method, since multifractal analysis is a multiscale analysis. We explore the multifractal properties of cross-correlation between these US and Chinese markets and show the distinctiveness of NQCI and HSI among the markets in their own region. It can be concluded that the weaker cross-correlation between US markets gives the evidence for the better inner mechanism in the US stock markets than that of Chinese stock markets. To study the multiscale features and properties of financial time series can provide valuable information for understanding the inner mechanism of financial markets.

SOP: parallel surrogate global optimization with Pareto center selection for computationally expensive single objective problems

DOE PAGES

Krityakierne, Tipaluck; Akhtar, Taimoor; Shoemaker, Christine A.

2016-02-02

This paper presents a parallel surrogate-based global optimization method for computationally expensive objective functions that is more effective for larger numbers of processors. To reach this goal, we integrated concepts from multi-objective optimization and tabu search into, single objective, surrogate optimization. Our proposed derivative-free algorithm, called SOP, uses non-dominated sorting of points for which the expensive function has been previously evaluated. The two objectives are the expensive function value of the point and the minimum distance of the point to previously evaluated points. Based on the results of non-dominated sorting, P points from the sorted fronts are selected as centersmore » from which many candidate points are generated by random perturbations. Based on surrogate approximation, the best candidate point is subsequently selected for expensive evaluation for each of the P centers, with simultaneous computation on P processors. Centers that previously did not generate good solutions are tabu with a given tenure. We show almost sure convergence of this algorithm under some conditions. The performance of SOP is compared with two RBF based methods. The test results show that SOP is an efficient method that can reduce time required to find a good near optimal solution. In a number of cases the efficiency of SOP is so good that SOP with 8 processors found an accurate answer in less wall-clock time than the other algorithms did with 32 processors.« less

Near Real-Time Probabilistic Damage Diagnosis Using Surrogate Modeling and High Performance Computing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Warner, James E.; Zubair, Mohammad; Ranjan, Desh

2017-01-01

This work investigates novel approaches to probabilistic damage diagnosis that utilize surrogate modeling and high performance computing (HPC) to achieve substantial computational speedup. Motivated by Digital Twin, a structural health management (SHM) paradigm that integrates vehicle-specific characteristics with continual in-situ damage diagnosis and prognosis, the methods studied herein yield near real-time damage assessments that could enable monitoring of a vehicle's health while it is operating (i.e. online SHM). High-fidelity modeling and uncertainty quantification (UQ), both critical to Digital Twin, are incorporated using finite element method simulations and Bayesian inference, respectively. The crux of the proposed Bayesian diagnosis methods, however, is the reformulation of the numerical sampling algorithms (e.g. Markov chain Monte Carlo) used to generate the resulting probabilistic damage estimates. To this end, three distinct methods are demonstrated for rapid sampling that utilize surrogate modeling and exploit various degrees of parallelism for leveraging HPC. The accuracy and computational efficiency of the methods are compared on the problem of strain-based crack identification in thin plates. While each approach has inherent problem-specific strengths and weaknesses, all approaches are shown to provide accurate probabilistic damage diagnoses and several orders of magnitude computational speedup relative to a baseline Bayesian diagnosis implementation.

Surrogate biochemical markers: precise measurement for strategic drug and biologics development.

PubMed

Lee, J W; Hulse, J D; Colburn, W A

1995-05-01

More efficient drug and biologics development is necessary for future success of pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. One way to achieve this objective is to use rationally selected surrogate markers to improve the early decision-making process. Using typical clinical chemistry methods to measure biochemical markers may not ensure adequate precision and reproducibility. In contrast, using analytical methods that meet good laboratory practices along with rational selection and validation of biochemical markers can give those who use them a competitive advantage over those who do not by providing meaningful data for earlier decision making.

A Bayesian Approach to Surrogacy Assessment Using Principal Stratification in Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Li, Yun; Taylor, Jeremy M.G.; Elliott, Michael R.

2011-01-01

Summary A surrogate marker (S) is a variable that can be measured earlier and often easier than the true endpoint (T) in a clinical trial. Most previous research has been devoted to developing surrogacy measures to quantify how well S can replace T or examining the use of S in predicting the effect of a treatment (Z). However, the research often requires one to fit models for the distribution of T given S and Z. It is well known that such models do not have causal interpretations because the models condition on a post-randomization variable S. In this paper, we directly model the relationship among T, S and Z using a potential outcomes framework introduced by Frangakis and Rubin (2002). We propose a Bayesian estimation method to evaluate the causal probabilities associated with the cross-classification of the potential outcomes of S and T when S and T are both binary. We use a log-linear model to directly model the association between the potential outcomes of S and T through the odds ratios. The quantities derived from this approach always have causal interpretations. However, this causal model is not identifiable from the data without additional assumptions. To reduce the non-identifiability problem and increase the precision of statistical inferences, we assume monotonicity and incorporate prior belief that is plausible in the surrogate context by using prior distributions. We also explore the relationship among the surrogacy measures based on traditional models and this counterfactual model. The method is applied to the data from a glaucoma treatment study. PMID:19673864

Surrogate mother – praiseworthy or stigmatized: a qualitative study on perceptions of surrogacy in Assam, India

PubMed Central

Arvidsson, Anna; Vauquline, Polly; Johnsdotter, Sara; Essén, Birgitta

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: Surrogacy is a reproductive practice that has been strongly marketed in India as a solution for childless couples. As a result, the number of surrogacy clinics is increasing. Meanwhile, a global discourse on surrogacy, originating from a Western perspective, has characterized surrogacy as being exploitative of women in low-income settings, where poverty drives them to become surrogate mothers. Objective: This study explored perspectives on surrogacy from men and women in Assam, an Indian state known to be a low-income setting. Surrogacy arrangements in Assam are still uncommon. It can be expected that the dominant global discourses on surrogacy will be unfamiliar to the general population, and the objective was also to position the results within the divergent global discourses of surrogacy. Methods: In order to explore local views on surrogacy, we conducted individual interviews and focus group discussions with people from various socioeconomic groups in Assam. Results: Our findings reveal that people in Assam perceive surrogacy as a good option for a childless couple, as it would result in a child who is a ‘blood’ relation – something highly desirable for sociocultural reasons. However, the part played by the surrogate mother complicates local views on surrogacy. Most people consider payment to the surrogate mother contrary to societal norms. A surrogate mother is also often judged in a moral light, either as a ‘bad mother’ for selling her child, or as a ‘noble woman’ who has helped a childless couple and deserves payment for her services. Conclusions: In order to decrease the stigmatization of women, a regulatory policy is needed that will take into account the complex understandings of surrogacy and perceptions of surrogate mothers in Indian society. In policy, the possible effect of the dominant exploitation discourse needs to be modulated by local understandings of this reproduction method. PMID:28604252

Surrogate measures and consistent surrogates

PubMed Central

VanderWeele, Tyler J.

2014-01-01

Summary Surrogates which allow one to predict the effect of the treatment on the outcome of interest from the effect of the treatment on the surrogate are of importance when it is difficult or expensive to measure the primary outcome. Unfortunately, the use of such surrogates can give rise to paradoxical situations in which the effect of the treatment on the surrogate is positive, the surrogate and outcome are strongly positively correlated, but the effect of the treatment on the outcome is negative, a phenomenon sometimes referred to as the "surrogate paradox." New results are given for consistent surrogates that extend the existing literature on sufficient conditions that ensure the surrogate paradox is not manifest. Specifically, it is shown that for the surrogate paradox to beman.est it must be the case that either there is (i) a direct effect of treatment on the outcome not through the surrogate and in the opposite direction as that through the surrogate or (ii) confounding for the effect of the surrogate on the outcome, or (iii) a lack of transitivity so that treatment does not positively affect the surrogate for all the same individuals for which the surrogate positively affects the outcome. The conditions for consistent surrogates and the results of the paper are important because they allow investigators to predict the direction of the effect of the treatment on the outcome simply from the direction of the effect of the treatment on the surrogate. These results on consistent surrogates are then related to the four approaches to surrogate outcomes described by Joffe and Greene (2009, Biometrics 65, 530–538) to assess whether the standard criterion used by these approaches to assess whether a surrogate is "good" suffices to avoid the surrogate paradox. PMID:24073861

Concordance of Carcinoembryonic Antigen Ratio and Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors as Prognostic Surrogate Indicators of Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients Treated with Chemotherapy.

PubMed

Huang, Sheng-Chieh; Lin, Jen-Kou; Lin, Tzu-Chen; Chen, Wei-Shone; Yang, Shung-Haur; Wang, Huann-Sheng; Lan, Yuan-Tzu; Lin, Chun-Chi; Jiang, Jeng-Kai; Chang, Shih-Ching

2015-07-01

Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) is widely used as a tumor marker in colorectal cancer (CRC). This study aimed to evaluate the role of the degree of change in CEA levels during the treatment period and found that the degree of change highly correlated with disease survival and Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) criteria in evaluating therapy response. A total of 447 metastatic CRC patients treated with surgery of the primary tumor followed by systemic therapy at a single center from the year 2000 through 2011 were reviewed. The degree of change in CEA levels was expressed as the CEA ratio (post-CEA/pre-CEA) and classified into four groups during the treatment period for further evaluation. The imaging change of the same population was also compared with the CEA ratio during the treatment period. The CEA ratio was significantly correlated with different chemotherapy regimens (p < 0.001), pre-treatment CEA level (p < 0.001), lymphovascular invasion (p = 0.006), and tumor differentiation (p = 0.018). CEA ratio and imaging change according to RECIST criteria were both correlated with overall survival (p < 0.001). These two methods for evaluating treatment response were highly correlated (p < 0.001). CEA ratio was found to be a reliable prognostic factor in stage IV CRC, and was highly correlated with the imaging survey according to RECIST criteria. Further prospective studies are essential to validate these findings.

Conceptualizing Surrogate Decision-Making at End of Life in the Intensive Care Unit using Cognitive Task Analysis

PubMed Central

Dionne-Odom, J. Nicholas; Willis, Danny G.; Bakitas, Marie; Crandall, Beth; Grace, Pamela J.

2014-01-01

Background Surrogate decision-makers (SDMs) face difficult decisions at end of life (EOL) for decisionally incapacitated intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Purpose Identify and describe the underlying psychological processes of surrogate decision-making for adults at EOL in the ICU. Method Qualitative case study design using a cognitive task analysis (CTA) interviewing approach. Participants were recruited from October 2012 to June 2013 from an academic tertiary medical center’s ICU located in the rural Northeastern United States. Nineteen SDMs for patients who had died in the ICU completed in-depth semi-structured CTA interviews. Discussion The conceptual framework formulated from data analysis reveals that three underlying, iterative, psychological dimensions: gist impressions, distressing emotions, and moral intuitions impact a SDM’s judgment about the acceptability of either the patient’s medical treatments or his or her condition. Conclusion The framework offers initial insights about the underlying psychological processes of surrogate decision-making and may facilitate enhanced decision support for SDMs. PMID:25982772

The potential investment impact of improved access to accelerated approval on the development of treatments for low prevalence rare diseases

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Over 95% of rare diseases lack treatments despite many successful treatment studies in animal models. To improve access to treatments, the Accelerated Approval (AA) regulations were implemented allowing the use of surrogate endpoints to achieve drug approval and accelerate development of life-saving therapies. Many rare diseases have not utilized AA due to the difficulty in gaining acceptance of novel surrogate endpoints in untreated rare diseases. Methods To assess the potential impact of improved AA accessibility, we devised clinical development programs using proposed clinical or surrogate endpoints for fifteen rare disease treatments. Results We demonstrate that better AA access could reduce development costs by approximately 60%, increase investment value, and foster development of three times as many rare disease drugs for the same investment. Conclusion Our research brings attention to the need for well-defined and practical qualification criteria for the use of surrogate endpoints to allow more access to the AA approval pathway in clinical trials for rare diseases. PMID:21733145

An information-theoretic approach for the evaluation of surrogate endpoints based on causal inference.

PubMed

Alonso, Ariel; Van der Elst, Wim; Molenberghs, Geert; Buyse, Marc; Burzykowski, Tomasz

2016-09-01

In this work a new metric of surrogacy, the so-called individual causal association (ICA), is introduced using information-theoretic concepts and a causal inference model for a binary surrogate and true endpoint. The ICA has a simple and appealing interpretation in terms of uncertainty reduction and, in some scenarios, it seems to provide a more coherent assessment of the validity of a surrogate than existing measures. The identifiability issues are tackled using a two-step procedure. In the first step, the region of the parametric space of the distribution of the potential outcomes, compatible with the data at hand, is geometrically characterized. Further, in a second step, a Monte Carlo approach is proposed to study the behavior of the ICA on the previous region. The method is illustrated using data from the Collaborative Initial Glaucoma Treatment Study. A newly developed and user-friendly R package Surrogate is provided to carry out the evaluation exercise. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Predicting treatment effect from surrogate endpoints and historical trials: an extrapolation involving probabilities of a binary outcome or survival to a specific time

PubMed Central

Sargent, Daniel J.; Buyse, Marc; Burzykowski, Tomasz

2011-01-01

SUMMARY Using multiple historical trials with surrogate and true endpoints, we consider various models to predict the effect of treatment on a true endpoint in a target trial in which only a surrogate endpoint is observed. This predicted result is computed using (1) a prediction model (mixture, linear, or principal stratification) estimated from historical trials and the surrogate endpoint of the target trial and (2) a random extrapolation error estimated from successively leaving out each trial among the historical trials. The method applies to either binary outcomes or survival to a particular time that is computed from censored survival data. We compute a 95% confidence interval for the predicted result and validate its coverage using simulation. To summarize the additional uncertainty from using a predicted instead of true result for the estimated treatment effect, we compute its multiplier of standard error. Software is available for download. PMID:21838732

Physical Employment Standards for UK Firefighters

PubMed Central

Stevenson, Richard D.M.; Siddall, Andrew G.; Turner, Philip F.J.; Bilzon, James L.J.

2017-01-01

Objective: The aim of this study was to assess sensitivity and specificity of surrogate physical ability tests as predictors of criterion firefighting task performance and to identify corresponding minimum muscular strength and endurance standards. Methods: Fifty-one (26 male; 25 female) participants completed three criterion tasks (ladder lift, ladder lower, ladder extension) and three corresponding surrogate tests [one-repetition maximum (1RM) seated shoulder press; 1RM seated rope pull-down; repeated 28 kg seated rope pull-down]. Surrogate test standards were calculated that best identified individuals who passed (sensitivity; true positives) and failed (specificity; true negatives) criterion tasks. Results: Best sensitivity/specificity achieved were 1.00/1.00 for a 35 kg seated shoulder press, 0.79/0.92 for a 60 kg rope pull-down, and 0.83/0.93 for 23 repetitions of the 28 kg rope pull-down. Conclusions: These standards represent performance on surrogate tests commensurate with minimum acceptable performance of essential strength-based occupational tasks in UK firefighters. PMID:28045801

NO to NO2 conversion rate analysis and implications for dispersion model chemistry methods using Las Vegas, Nevada near-road field measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kimbrough, Sue; Chris Owen, R.; Snyder, Michelle; Richmond-Bryant, Jennifer

2017-09-01

The nitrogen dioxide/oxides of nitrogen (NO2/NOX) ratio is an important surrogate for NO to NO2 chemistry in dispersion models when estimating NOX impacts in a near-road environment. Existing dispersion models use different techniques and assumptions to represent NO to NO2 conversion and do not fully characterize all of the important atmospheric chemical and mechanical processes. Thus, ;real-world; ambient measurements must be analyzed to assess the behavior of NO2/NOX ratios near roadways. An examination of NO2/NOX ratio data from a field study conducted in Las Vegas, Nevada (NV), from mid-December, 2008 through mid-December, 2009 provides insights into the appropriateness of assumptions about the NO2/NOX ratio included in dispersion models. Data analysis indicates multiple factors affect the downwind NO2/NOX ratio. These include spatial gradient, background ozone (O3), source emissions of NO and NO2, and background NO2/NOX ratio. Analysis of the NO2/NOX ratio spatial gradient indicates that under high O3 conditions, the change in the ratio is fairly constant once a certain O3 threshold (≥30 ppb) is reached. However, under low O3 conditions (<30 ppb), there are differences between weekdays and weekends, most likely due to a decline in O3 concentrations during the weekday morning hours, reducing the O3 available to titrate the emitted NO, allowing lower NO2/NOX ratios. These results suggest that under high O3 conditions, NOX chemistry is driving the NO2/NOX ratios whereas under low O3 conditions, atmospheric mixing is the driving factor.

Percent recovery of low influent concentrations of microorganism surrogates in small sand columns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevenson, M. E.; Blaschke, A. P.

2012-04-01

In order to develop a dependable method to calculate the setback distance of a drinking water well from a potential point of microbiological contamination, surrogates are used to perform field tests to avoid using pathogenic micro-organisms. One such surrogate used to model the potential travel time of microbial contamination is synthetic microspheres. The goal of this study is to examine the effect of differing influent colloid concentrations on the percent recovery of microbial surrogates after passing through a soil column. Similar studies have been done to investigate blocking of ideal attachment sites using concentrations between 106 and 1010 particles ml-1. These high concentrations were necessary due to the detection limit of the measuring technique used; however, our measuring technique allows us to test input concentrations ranging from 101 to 106 particles ml-1. These low concentrations are more similar to the concentrations of pathogenic microorganisms present in nature. We have tested the enumeration of 0.5 μm microspheres using a solid-phase cytometer and evaluated their transport in small sand columns. Fluorescent microspheres were purchased for this study with carboxylated surfaces. The soil columns consist of Plexiglas tubes, 30 cm long and 7 cm in diameter, both filled with the same coarse sand. Bromide was used as a conservative tracer, to estimate pore-water velocity and dispersivity, and bromide concentrations were analysed using ion chromatography and bromide probes. Numerical modelling was done using CXTFIT and HYDRUS-1D software programs. The 0.5 μm beads were enumerated in different environmental waters using solid-phase cytometry and compared to counts in sterile water in order to confirm the accuracy of the method. The solid-phase cytometer was able to differentiate the 0.5 μm beads from naturally present autofluorescent particles and bacteria, and therefore, is an appropriate method to enumerate this surrogate.

Combining conversation analysis and event sequencing to study health communication.

PubMed

Pecanac, Kristen E

2018-06-01

Good communication is essential in patient-centered care. The purpose of this paper is to describe conversation analysis and event sequencing and explain how integrating these methods strengthened the analysis in a study of communication between clinicians and surrogate decision makers in an intensive care unit. Conversation analysis was first used to determine how clinicians introduced the need for decision-making regarding life-sustaining treatment and how surrogate decision makers responded. Event sequence analysis then was used to determine the transitional probability (probability of one event leading to another in the interaction) that a given type of clinician introduction would lead to surrogate resistance or alignment. Conversation analysis provides a detailed analysis of the interaction between participants in a conversation. When combined with a quantitative analysis of the patterns of communication in an interaction, these data add information on the communication strategies that produce positive outcomes. Researchers can apply this mixed-methods approach to identify beneficial conversational practices and design interventions to improve health communication. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Using a gel/plastic surrogate to study the biomechanical response of the head under air shock loading: a combined experimental and numerical investigation.

PubMed

Zhu, Feng; Wagner, Christina; Dal Cengio Leonardi, Alessandra; Jin, Xin; Vandevord, Pamela; Chou, Clifford; Yang, King H; King, Albert I

2012-03-01

A combined experimental and numerical study was conducted to determine a method to elucidate the biomechanical response of a head surrogate physical model under air shock loading. In the physical experiments, a gel-filled egg-shaped skull/brain surrogate was exposed to blast overpressure in a shock tube environment, and static pressures within the shock tube and the surrogate were recorded throughout the event. A numerical model of the shock tube was developed using the Eulerian approach and validated against experimental data. An arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) fluid-structure coupling algorithm was then utilized to simulate the interaction of the shock wave and the head surrogate. After model validation, a comprehensive series of parametric studies was carried out on the egg-shaped surrogate FE model to assess the effect of several key factors, such as the elastic modulus of the shell, bulk modulus of the core, head orientation, and internal sensor location, on pressure and strain responses. Results indicate that increasing the elastic modulus of the shell within the range simulated in this study led to considerable rise of the overpressures. Varying the bulk modulus of the core from 0.5 to 2.0 GPa, the overpressure had an increase of 7.2%. The curvature of the surface facing the shock wave significantly affected both the peak positive and negative pressures. Simulations of the head surrogate with the blunt end facing the advancing shock front had a higher pressure compared to the simulations with the pointed end facing the shock front. The influence of an opening (possibly mimicking anatomical apertures) on the peak pressures was evaluated using a surrogate head with a hole on the shell of the blunt end. It was revealed that the presence of the opening had little influence on the positive pressures but could affect the negative pressure evidently.

Evaluation of the use of salivary lead levels as a surrogate of blood lead or plasma lead levels in lead exposed subjects.

PubMed

Barbosa, Fernando; Corrêa Rodrigues, Maria Heloísa; Buzalaf, Maria R; Krug, Francisco J; Gerlach, Raquel F; Tanus-Santos, José Eduardo

2006-10-01

We conducted a study to evaluate the use of parotid salivary lead (Pb-saliva) levels as a surrogate of the blood lead (Pb-B) or plasma lead levels (Pb-P) to diagnose lead exposure. The relationship between these biomarkers was assessed in a lead exposed population. Pb-saliva and Pb-P were determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, while in whole blood lead was determined by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry. We studied 88 adults (31 men and 57 women) from 18 to 60 years old. Pb-saliva levels varied from 0.05 to 4.4 microg/l, with a mean of 0.85 microg/l. Blood lead levels varied from 32.0 to 428.0 microg/l in men (mean 112.3 microg/l) and from 25.0 to 263.0 microg/l (mean 63.5 microg/l) in women. Corresponding Pb-Ps were 0.02-2.50 microg/l (mean 0.77 microg/l) and 0.03-1.6 microg/l (mean 0.42 microg/l) in men and women, respectively. A weak correlation was found between Log Pb-saliva and Log Pb-B (r=0.277, P<0.008), and between Log Pb-saliva and Log Pb-P (r=0.280, P=0.006). The Pb-saliva/Pb-P ratio ranged from 0.20 to 18.0. Age or gender does not affect Pb-saliva levels or Pb-saliva/Pb-P ratio. Taken together, these results suggest that salivary lead may not be used as a biomarker to diagnose lead exposure nor as a surrogate of plasma lead levels at least for low to moderately lead exposed population.

Synergy of iron and copper oxides in the catalytic formation of PCDD/Fs from 2-monochlorophenol.

PubMed

Potter, Phillip M; Guan, Xia; Lomnicki, Slawomir M

2018-07-01

Transition metal oxides present in waste incineration systems have the ability to catalyze the formation of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) through surface reactions involving organic dioxin precursors. However, studies have concentrated on the catalytic effects of individual transition metal oxides, while the complex elemental composition of fly ash introduces the possibility of synergistic or inhibiting effects between multiple, catalytically active components. In this study, we have tested fly ash surrogates containing different ratios (by weight) of iron (III) oxide and copper (II) oxide. Such Fe 2 O 3 /CuO mixed-oxide surrogates (in the Fe:Cu ratio of 3.5, 0.9 and 0.2 ) were used to study the cooperative effects between two transition metals that are present in high concentrations in most combustion systems and are known to individually catalyze the formation of PCDD/Fs. The presence of both iron and copper oxides increased the oxidative power of the fly ash surrogates in oxygen rich conditions and led to extremely high PCDD/F yields under pyrolytic conditions (up to >5% yield) from 2-monochlorophenol precursor. PCDD/F congener profiles from the mixed oxide samples are similar to results obtained from only CuO, however the total PCDD/F yield increases with increasing Fe 2 O 3 content. Careful analysis of the reaction products and changes to the oxidation states of active metals indicate the CuO surface sites are centers for reaction while the Fe 2 O 3 is affecting the bonds in CuO and increasing the ability of copper centers to form surface-bound radicals that are precursors to PCDD/Fs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Calibration of an agricultural-hydrological model (RZWQM2) using surrogate global optimization

DOE PAGES

Xi, Maolong; Lu, Dan; Gui, Dongwei; ...

2016-11-27

Robust calibration of an agricultural-hydrological model is critical for simulating crop yield and water quality and making reasonable agricultural management. However, calibration of the agricultural-hydrological system models is challenging because of model complexity, the existence of strong parameter correlation, and significant computational requirements. Therefore, only a limited number of simulations can be allowed in any attempt to find a near-optimal solution within an affordable time, which greatly restricts the successful application of the model. The goal of this study is to locate the optimal solution of the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2) given a limited simulation time, so asmore » to improve the model simulation and help make rational and effective agricultural-hydrological decisions. To this end, we propose a computationally efficient global optimization procedure using sparse-grid based surrogates. We first used advanced sparse grid (SG) interpolation to construct a surrogate system of the actual RZWQM2, and then we calibrate the surrogate model using the global optimization algorithm, Quantum-behaved Particle Swarm Optimization (QPSO). As the surrogate model is a polynomial with fast evaluation, it can be efficiently evaluated with a sufficiently large number of times during the optimization, which facilitates the global search. We calibrate seven model parameters against five years of yield, drain flow, and NO 3-N loss data from a subsurface-drained corn-soybean field in Iowa. Results indicate that an accurate surrogate model can be created for the RZWQM2 with a relatively small number of SG points (i.e., RZWQM2 runs). Compared to the conventional QPSO algorithm, our surrogate-based optimization method can achieve a smaller objective function value and better calibration performance using a fewer number of expensive RZWQM2 executions, which greatly improves computational efficiency.« less

Calibration of an agricultural-hydrological model (RZWQM2) using surrogate global optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xi, Maolong; Lu, Dan; Gui, Dongwei; Qi, Zhiming; Zhang, Guannan

2017-01-01

Robust calibration of an agricultural-hydrological model is critical for simulating crop yield and water quality and making reasonable agricultural management. However, calibration of the agricultural-hydrological system models is challenging because of model complexity, the existence of strong parameter correlation, and significant computational requirements. Therefore, only a limited number of simulations can be allowed in any attempt to find a near-optimal solution within an affordable time, which greatly restricts the successful application of the model. The goal of this study is to locate the optimal solution of the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2) given a limited simulation time, so as to improve the model simulation and help make rational and effective agricultural-hydrological decisions. To this end, we propose a computationally efficient global optimization procedure using sparse-grid based surrogates. We first used advanced sparse grid (SG) interpolation to construct a surrogate system of the actual RZWQM2, and then we calibrate the surrogate model using the global optimization algorithm, Quantum-behaved Particle Swarm Optimization (QPSO). As the surrogate model is a polynomial with fast evaluation, it can be efficiently evaluated with a sufficiently large number of times during the optimization, which facilitates the global search. We calibrate seven model parameters against five years of yield, drain flow, and NO3-N loss data from a subsurface-drained corn-soybean field in Iowa. Results indicate that an accurate surrogate model can be created for the RZWQM2 with a relatively small number of SG points (i.e., RZWQM2 runs). Compared to the conventional QPSO algorithm, our surrogate-based optimization method can achieve a smaller objective function value and better calibration performance using a fewer number of expensive RZWQM2 executions, which greatly improves computational efficiency.

Defining Surrogate Endpoints for Clinical Trials in Severe Falciparum Malaria

PubMed Central

Plewes, Katherine; Maude, Richard J.; Hanson, Josh; Herdman, M. Trent; Leopold, Stije J.; Ngernseng, Thatsanun; Charunwatthana, Prakaykaew; Phu, Nguyen Hoan; Ghose, Aniruddha; Hasan, M. Mahtab Uddin; Fanello, Caterina I.; Faiz, Md Abul; Hien, Tran Tinh; Day, Nicholas P. J.; White, Nicholas J.; Dondorp, Arjen M.

2017-01-01

Background Clinical trials in severe falciparum malaria require a large sample size to detect clinically meaningful differences in mortality. This means few interventions can be evaluated at any time. Using a validated surrogate endpoint for mortality would provide a useful alternative allowing a smaller sample size. Here we evaluate changes in coma score and plasma lactate as surrogate endpoints for mortality in severe falciparum malaria. Methods Three datasets of clinical studies in severe malaria were re-evaluated: studies from Chittagong, Bangladesh (adults), the African ‘AQUAMAT’ trial comparing artesunate and quinine (children), and the Vietnamese ‘AQ’ study (adults) comparing artemether with quinine. The absolute change, relative change, slope of the normalization over time, and time to normalization were derived from sequential measurements of plasma lactate and coma score, and validated for their use as surrogate endpoint, including the proportion of treatment effect on mortality explained (PTE) by these surrogate measures. Results Improvements in lactate concentration or coma scores over the first 24 hours of admission, were strongly prognostic for survival in all datasets. In hyperlactataemic patients in the AQ study (n = 173), lower mortality with artemether compared to quinine closely correlated with faster reduction in plasma lactate concentration, with a high PTE of the relative change in plasma lactate at 8 and 12 hours of 0.81 and 0.75, respectively. In paediatric patients enrolled in the ‘AQUAMAT’ study with cerebral malaria (n = 785), mortality was lower with artesunate compared to quinine, but this was not associated with faster coma recovery. Conclusions The relative changes in plasma lactate concentration assessed at 8 or 12 hours after admission are valid surrogate endpoints for severe malaria studies on antimalarial drugs or adjuvant treatments aiming at improving the microcirculation. Measures of coma recovery are not valid surrogate endpoints for mortality. PMID:28052109

Calibration of an agricultural-hydrological model (RZWQM2) using surrogate global optimization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xi, Maolong; Lu, Dan; Gui, Dongwei

Robust calibration of an agricultural-hydrological model is critical for simulating crop yield and water quality and making reasonable agricultural management. However, calibration of the agricultural-hydrological system models is challenging because of model complexity, the existence of strong parameter correlation, and significant computational requirements. Therefore, only a limited number of simulations can be allowed in any attempt to find a near-optimal solution within an affordable time, which greatly restricts the successful application of the model. The goal of this study is to locate the optimal solution of the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2) given a limited simulation time, so asmore » to improve the model simulation and help make rational and effective agricultural-hydrological decisions. To this end, we propose a computationally efficient global optimization procedure using sparse-grid based surrogates. We first used advanced sparse grid (SG) interpolation to construct a surrogate system of the actual RZWQM2, and then we calibrate the surrogate model using the global optimization algorithm, Quantum-behaved Particle Swarm Optimization (QPSO). As the surrogate model is a polynomial with fast evaluation, it can be efficiently evaluated with a sufficiently large number of times during the optimization, which facilitates the global search. We calibrate seven model parameters against five years of yield, drain flow, and NO 3-N loss data from a subsurface-drained corn-soybean field in Iowa. Results indicate that an accurate surrogate model can be created for the RZWQM2 with a relatively small number of SG points (i.e., RZWQM2 runs). Compared to the conventional QPSO algorithm, our surrogate-based optimization method can achieve a smaller objective function value and better calibration performance using a fewer number of expensive RZWQM2 executions, which greatly improves computational efficiency.« less

Reduced cost mission design using surrogate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldhacker, Juliana D.; Jones, Brandon A.; Doostan, Alireza; Hampton, Jerrad

2016-01-01

This paper uses surrogate models to reduce the computational cost associated with spacecraft mission design in three-body dynamical systems. Sampling-based least squares regression is used to project the system response onto a set of orthogonal bases, providing a representation of the ΔV required for rendezvous as a reduced-order surrogate model. Models are presented for mid-field rendezvous of spacecraft in orbits in the Earth-Moon circular restricted three-body problem, including a halo orbit about the Earth-Moon L2 libration point (EML-2) and a distant retrograde orbit (DRO) about the Moon. In each case, the initial position of the spacecraft, the time of flight, and the separation between the chaser and the target vehicles are all considered as design inputs. The results show that sample sizes on the order of 102 are sufficient to produce accurate surrogates, with RMS errors reaching 0.2 m/s for the halo orbit and falling below 0.01 m/s for the DRO. A single function call to the resulting surrogate is up to two orders of magnitude faster than computing the same solution using full fidelity propagators. The expansion coefficients solved for in the surrogates are then used to conduct a global sensitivity analysis of the ΔV on each of the input parameters, which identifies the separation between the spacecraft as the primary contributor to the ΔV cost. Finally, the models are demonstrated to be useful for cheap evaluation of the cost function in constrained optimization problems seeking to minimize the ΔV required for rendezvous. These surrogate models show significant advantages for mission design in three-body systems, in terms of both computational cost and capabilities, over traditional Monte Carlo methods.

Abiotic Stress and Phyllosphere Bacteria Influence the Survival of Human Norovirus and Its Surrogates on Preharvest Leafy Greens

PubMed Central

Esseili, Malak A.; Gao, Xiang; Tegtmeier, Sarah; Saif, Linda J.

2015-01-01

Foodborne outbreaks of human noroviruses (HuNoVs) are frequently associated with leafy greens. Because there is no effective method to eliminate HuNoV from postharvest leafy greens, understanding virus survival under preharvest conditions is crucial. The objective of this study was to evaluate the survival of HuNoV and its surrogate viruses, murine norovirus (MNV), porcine sapovirus (SaV), and Tulane virus (TV), on preharvest lettuce and spinach that were subjected to abiotic stress (physical damage, heat, or flood). We also examined the bacteria culturable from the phyllosphere in response to abiotic stress and in relation to viral persistence. Mature plants were subjected to stressors 2 days prior to inoculation of the viruses on leaves. We quantified the viral RNA, determined the infectivity of the surrogates, and performed bacterial counts on postinoculation days (PIDs) 0, 1, 7, and 14. For both plant types, time exerted significant effects on HuNoV, MNV, SaV, and TV RNA titers, with greater effects being seen for the surrogates. Infectious surrogate viruses were undetectable on PID 14. Only physical damage on PID 14 significantly enhanced HuNoV RNA persistence on lettuce, while the three stressors differentially enhanced the persistence of MNV and TV RNA. Bacterial counts were significantly affected by time and plant type but not by the stressors. However, bacterial counts correlated significantly with HuNoV RNA titers on spinach and with the presence of surrogate viruses on both plant types under various conditions. In conclusion, abiotic stressors and phyllosphere bacterial density may differentially influence the survival of HuNoV and its surrogates on lettuce and spinach, emphasizing the need for the use of preventive measures at the preharvest stage. PMID:26497461

75 FR 34425 - Certain Steel Nails from the People's Republic of China: Final Results of the First New Shipper...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-17

... COMMENT 3: CLASSIFICATION OF CERTAIN INPUTS COMMENT 4: SURROGATE FINANCIAL RATIOS COMMENT 5: ADJUSTMENT TO... People's Republic of China, 73 FR 44961 (August 1, 2008) (``Order''). Based upon our analysis of the..., Analysis of the Final Results of the First New Shipper Review of Certain Steel Nails from the People's...

Gene-centric meta-analyses for central adiposity traits in up to 57 412 individuals of European descent confirm known loci and reveal several novel associations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) are surrogate measures of central adiposity that are associated with adverse cardiovascular events, type 2 diabetes and cancer independent of body mass index (BMI). WC and WHR are highly heritable with multiple susceptibility loci identified to d...

Thyroid Cancer Incidence around the Belgian Nuclear Sites, 2000-2014.

PubMed

Demoury, Claire; De Smedt, Tom; De Schutter, Harlinde; Sonck, Michel; Van Damme, Nancy; Bollaerts, Kaatje; Molenberghs, Geert; Van Bladel, Lodewijk; Van Nieuwenhuyse, An

2017-08-31

The present study investigates whether there is an excess incidence of thyroid cancer among people living in the vicinity of the nuclear sites in Belgium. Adjusted Rate Ratios were obtained from Poisson regressions for proximity areas of varying sizes. In addition, focused hypothesis tests and generalized additive models were performed to test the hypothesis of a gradient in thyroid cancer incidence with increasing levels of surrogate exposures. Residential proximity to the nuclear site, prevailing dominant winds frequency from the site, and simulated radioactive discharges were used as surrogate exposures. No excess incidence of thyroid cancer was observed around the nuclear power plants of Doel or Tihange. In contrast, increases in thyroid cancer incidence were found around the nuclear sites of Mol-Dessel and Fleurus; risk ratios were borderline not significant. For Mol-Dessel, there was evidence for a gradient in thyroid cancer incidence with increased proximity, prevailing winds, and simulated radioactive discharges. For Fleurus, a gradient was observed with increasing prevailing winds and, to a lesser extent, with increasing simulated radioactive discharges. This study strengthens earlier findings and suggests increased incidences in thyroid cancer around two of the four Belgian nuclear sites. Further analyses will be performed at a more detailed geographical level.

Using 171,173Yb(d,p) to benchmark a surrogate reaction for neutron capture

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hatarik, R; Bersntein, L; Burke, J

2008-08-08

Neutron capture cross sections on unstable nuclei are important for many applications in nuclear structure and astrophysics. Measuring these cross sections directly is a major challenge and often impossible. An indirect approach for measuring these cross sections is the surrogate reaction method, which makes it possible to relate the desired cross section to a cross section of an alternate reaction that proceeds through the same compound nucleus. To benchmark the validity of using the (d,p{gamma}) reaction as a surrogate for (n,{gamma}), the {sup 171,173}Yb(d,p{gamma}) reactions were measured with the goal to reproduce the known [1] neutron capture cross section ratiosmore » of these nuclei.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White, Benjamin M., E-mail: bmwhite@mednet.ucla.edu; Lamb, James M.; Low, Daniel A.

Purpose: To characterize radiation therapy patient breathing patterns based on measured external surrogate information. Methods: Breathing surrogate data were collected during 4DCT from a cohort of 50 patients including 28 patients with lung cancer and 22 patients without lung cancer. A spirometer and an abdominal pneumatic bellows were used as the surrogates. The relationship between these measurements was assumed to be linear within a small phase difference. The signals were correlated and drift corrected using a previously published method to convert the signal into tidal volume. The airflow was calculated with a first order time derivative of the tidal volumemore » using a window centered on the point of interest and with a window length equal to the CT gantry rotation period. The airflow was compared against the tidal volume to create ellipsoidal patterns that were binned into 25 ml × 25 ml/s bins to determine the relative amount of time spent in each bin. To calculate the variability of the maximum inhalation tidal volume within a free-breathing scan timeframe, a metric based on percentile volume ratios was defined. The free breathing variability metric (κ) was defined as the ratio between extreme inhalation tidal volumes (defined as >93 tidal volume percentile of the measured tidal volume) and normal inhalation tidal volume (defined as >80 tidal volume percentile of the measured tidal volume). Results: There were three observed types of volume-flow curves, labeled Types 1, 2, and 3. Type 1 patients spent a greater duration of time during exhalation withκ = 1.37 ± 0.11. Type 2 patients had equal time duration spent during inhalation and exhalation with κ = 1.28 ± 0.09. The differences between the mean peak exhalation to peak inhalation tidal volume, breathing period, and the 85th tidal volume percentile for Type 1 and Type 2 patients were statistically significant at the 2% significance level. The difference between κ and the 98th tidal volume percentile for Type 1 and Type 2 patients was found to be statistically significant at the 1% significance level. Three patients did not display a breathing stability curve that could be classified as Type 1 or Type 2 due to chaotic breathing patterns. These patients were classified as Type 3 patients. Conclusions: Based on an observed volume-flow curve pattern, the cohort of 50 patients was divided into three categories called Type 1, Type 2, and Type 3. There were statistically significant differences in breathing characteristics between Type 1 and Type 2 patients. The use of volume-flow curves to classify patients has been demonstrated as a physiological characterization metric that has the potential to optimize gating windows in radiation therapy.« less

Comparison of false-negative rates and limits of detection following macrofoam-swab sampling of Bacillus anthracis surrogates via Rapid Viability PCR and plate culture

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hutchison, J. R.; Piepel, G. F.; Amidan, B. G.

Aims: We evaluated the effects of Bacillus anthracis surrogates, low surface concentrations, surface materials, and assay methods on false-negative rate (FNR) and limit of detection (LOD95) for recovering Bacillus spores using a macrofoam-swab sampling procedure. Methods and Results: Bacillus anthracis Sterne or Bacillus atrophaeus Nakamura spores were deposited over a range of low target concentrations (2 – 500 coupon-1) onto glass, stainless steel, vinyl tile, and plastic. Samples were assayed using a modified Rapid Viability-PCR (mRV-PCR) method and the traditional plate culture method to obtain FNR and LOD95 results. Conclusions: Mean FNRs tended to be lower for mRV-PCR compared tomore » culturing, and increased as spore concentration decreased for all surface materials. Surface material, but not B. anthracis surrogate, influenced FNRs with the mRV-PCR method. The mRV-PCR LOD95 was lowest for glass and highest for vinyl tile. LOD95 values overall were lower for mRV-PCR than for the culture method. Significance and Impact of Study: This study adds to the limited data on FNR and LOD95 for mRV-PCR and culturing methods with low concentrations of B. anthracis sampled from various surface materials by the CDC macrofoam-swab method. These are key inputs for planning characterization and clearance studies for low contamination levels of B. anthracis.« less

Fast prediction and evaluation of eccentric inspirals using reduced-order models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barta, Dániel; Vasúth, Mátyás

2018-06-01

A large number of theoretically predicted waveforms are required by matched-filtering searches for the gravitational-wave signals produced by compact binary coalescence. In order to substantially alleviate the computational burden in gravitational-wave searches and parameter estimation without degrading the signal detectability, we propose a novel reduced-order-model (ROM) approach with applications to adiabatic 3PN-accurate inspiral waveforms of nonspinning sources that evolve on either highly or slightly eccentric orbits. We provide a singular-value decomposition-based reduced-basis method in the frequency domain to generate reduced-order approximations of any gravitational waves with acceptable accuracy and precision within the parameter range of the model. We construct efficient reduced bases comprised of a relatively small number of the most relevant waveforms over three-dimensional parameter-space covered by the template bank (total mass 2.15 M⊙≤M ≤215 M⊙ , mass ratio 0.01 ≤q ≤1 , and initial orbital eccentricity 0 ≤e0≤0.95 ). The ROM is designed to predict signals in the frequency band from 10 Hz to 2 kHz for aLIGO and aVirgo design sensitivity. Beside moderating the data reduction, finer sampling of fiducial templates improves the accuracy of surrogates. Considerable increase in the speedup from several hundreds to thousands can be achieved by evaluating surrogates for low-mass systems especially when combined with high-eccentricity.

Utilizing Adjoint-Based Error Estimates for Surrogate Models to Accurately Predict Probabilities of Events

DOE PAGES

Butler, Troy; Wildey, Timothy

2018-01-01

In thist study, we develop a procedure to utilize error estimates for samples of a surrogate model to compute robust upper and lower bounds on estimates of probabilities of events. We show that these error estimates can also be used in an adaptive algorithm to simultaneously reduce the computational cost and increase the accuracy in estimating probabilities of events using computationally expensive high-fidelity models. Specifically, we introduce the notion of reliability of a sample of a surrogate model, and we prove that utilizing the surrogate model for the reliable samples and the high-fidelity model for the unreliable samples gives preciselymore » the same estimate of the probability of the output event as would be obtained by evaluation of the original model for each sample. The adaptive algorithm uses the additional evaluations of the high-fidelity model for the unreliable samples to locally improve the surrogate model near the limit state, which significantly reduces the number of high-fidelity model evaluations as the limit state is resolved. Numerical results based on a recently developed adjoint-based approach for estimating the error in samples of a surrogate are provided to demonstrate (1) the robustness of the bounds on the probability of an event, and (2) that the adaptive enhancement algorithm provides a more accurate estimate of the probability of the QoI event than standard response surface approximation methods at a lower computational cost.« less

Uncertainty quantification for accident management using ACE surrogates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Varuttamaseni, A.; Lee, J. C.; Youngblood, R. W.

The alternating conditional expectation (ACE) regression method is used to generate RELAP5 surrogates which are then used to determine the distribution of the peak clad temperature (PCT) during the loss of feedwater accident coupled with a subsequent initiation of the feed and bleed (F and B) operation in the Zion-1 nuclear power plant. The construction of the surrogates assumes conditional independence relations among key reactor parameters. The choice of parameters to model is based on the macroscopic balance statements governing the behavior of the reactor. The peak clad temperature is calculated based on the independent variables that are known tomore » be important in determining the success of the F and B operation. The relationship between these independent variables and the plant parameters such as coolant pressure and temperature is represented by surrogates that are constructed based on 45 RELAP5 cases. The time-dependent PCT for different values of F and B parameters is calculated by sampling the independent variables from their probability distributions and propagating the information through two layers of surrogates. The results of our analysis show that the ACE surrogates are able to satisfactorily reproduce the behavior of the plant parameters even though a quasi-static assumption is primarily used in their construction. The PCT is found to be lower in cases where the F and B operation is initiated, compared to the case without F and B, regardless of the F and B parameters used. (authors)« less

Utilizing Adjoint-Based Error Estimates for Surrogate Models to Accurately Predict Probabilities of Events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Butler, Troy; Wildey, Timothy

In thist study, we develop a procedure to utilize error estimates for samples of a surrogate model to compute robust upper and lower bounds on estimates of probabilities of events. We show that these error estimates can also be used in an adaptive algorithm to simultaneously reduce the computational cost and increase the accuracy in estimating probabilities of events using computationally expensive high-fidelity models. Specifically, we introduce the notion of reliability of a sample of a surrogate model, and we prove that utilizing the surrogate model for the reliable samples and the high-fidelity model for the unreliable samples gives preciselymore » the same estimate of the probability of the output event as would be obtained by evaluation of the original model for each sample. The adaptive algorithm uses the additional evaluations of the high-fidelity model for the unreliable samples to locally improve the surrogate model near the limit state, which significantly reduces the number of high-fidelity model evaluations as the limit state is resolved. Numerical results based on a recently developed adjoint-based approach for estimating the error in samples of a surrogate are provided to demonstrate (1) the robustness of the bounds on the probability of an event, and (2) that the adaptive enhancement algorithm provides a more accurate estimate of the probability of the QoI event than standard response surface approximation methods at a lower computational cost.« less

Surrogate screening models for the low physical activity criterion of frailty.

PubMed

Eckel, Sandrah P; Bandeen-Roche, Karen; Chaves, Paulo H M; Fried, Linda P; Louis, Thomas A

2011-06-01

Low physical activity, one of five criteria in a validated clinical phenotype of frailty, is assessed by a standardized, semiquantitative questionnaire on up to 20 leisure time activities. Because of the time demanded to collect the interview data, it has been challenging to translate to studies other than the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), for which it was developed. Considering subsets of activities, we identified and evaluated streamlined surrogate assessment methods and compared them to one implemented in the Women's Health and Aging Study (WHAS). Using data on men and women ages 65 and older from the CHS, we applied logistic regression models to rank activities by "relative influence" in predicting low physical activity.We considered subsets of the most influential activities as inputs to potential surrogate models (logistic regressions). We evaluated predictive accuracy and predictive validity using the area under receiver operating characteristic curves and assessed criterion validity using proportional hazards models relating frailty status (defined using the surrogate) to mortality. Walking for exercise and moderately strenuous household chores were highly influential for both genders. Women required fewer activities than men for accurate classification. The WHAS model (8 CHS activities) was an effective surrogate, but a surrogate using 6 activities (walking, chores, gardening, general exercise, mowing and golfing) was also highly predictive. We recommend a 6 activity questionnaire to assess physical activity for men and women. If efficiency is essential and the study involves only women, fewer activities can be included.

3.4.1: Numerical Methods for Propagating Uncertainty Across Scales and for Hybrid Stochastic-Deterministic Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-10-04

Fisher’s equation, as well as a two‐dimensional Allen‐ Cahn equation. We  observe  good performance of the  method  for nonlinear problems as well as...rates, discrepancies between  the  two  methods   are  observed ,  hence  revealing  strong  additional  coupling  between  different  fluctuating variables...of random fields based on  observations  of surrogate models or hierarchies of surrogate models.  Our  method  builds upon recent work on recursive

Quantification of the spatial distribution of rectally applied surrogates for microbicide and semen in colon with SPECT and magnetic resonance imaging

PubMed Central

Cao, Ying J; Caffo, Brian S; Fuchs, Edward J; Lee, Linda A; Du, Yong; Li, Liye; Bakshi, Rahul P; Macura, Katarzyna; Khan, Wasif A; Wahl, Richard L; Grohskopf, Lisa A; Hendrix, Craig W

2012-01-01

AIMS We sought to describe quantitatively the distribution of rectally administered gels and seminal fluid surrogates using novel concentration–distance parameters that could be repeated over time. These methods are needed to develop rationally rectal microbicides to target and prevent HIV infection. METHODS Eight subjects were dosed rectally with radiolabelled and gadolinium-labelled gels to simulate microbicide gel and seminal fluid. Rectal doses were given with and without simulated receptive anal intercourse. Twenty-four hour distribution was assessed with indirect single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT)/computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and direct assessment via sigmoidoscopic brushes. Concentration–distance curves were generated using an algorithm for fitting SPECT data in three dimensions. Three novel concentration–distance parameters were defined to describe quantitatively the distribution of radiolabels: maximal distance (Dmax), distance at maximal concentration (DCmax) and mean residence distance (Dave). RESULTS The SPECT/CT distribution of microbicide and semen surrogates was similar. Between 1 h and 24 h post dose, the surrogates migrated retrograde in all three parameters (relative to coccygeal level; geometric mean [95% confidence interval]): maximal distance (Dmax), 10 cm (8.6–12) to 18 cm (13–26), distance at maximal concentration (DCmax), 3.8 cm (2.7–5.3) to 4.2 cm (2.8–6.3) and mean residence distance (Dave), 4.3 cm (3.5–5.1) to 7.6 cm (5.3–11). Sigmoidoscopy and MRI correlated only roughly with SPECT/CT. CONCLUSIONS Rectal microbicide surrogates migrated retrograde during the 24 h following dosing. Spatial kinetic parameters estimated using three dimensional curve fitting of distribution data should prove useful for evaluating rectal formulations of drugs for HIV prevention and other indications. PMID:22404308

Hospitalization for early bonding of the genetic mother after a surrogate pregnancy: report of two cases.

PubMed

Sharan, H; Yahav, J; Peleg, D; Ben-Rafael, Z; Merlob, P

2001-12-01

In surrogate pregnancies the genetic parents have little opportunity for early bonding to their infant, either prenatally (in utero) or in the immediate postnatal period. The purpose of this article is to describe a new method for encouraging early parent-infant bonding after surrogate pregnancy by hospitalizing the genetic mother in the maternity ward immediately after the delivery. Two genetic mothers were hospitalized in the maternity ward (rooming-in system) at the Rabin Medical Center in Israel immediately after delivery of their infants by surrogate arrangement. The first birth was a singleton pregnancy with vaginal delivery and the second, a twin pregnancy with delivery by cesarean section. The genetic parents were counseled by a social worker from the adoption agency, starting 3 months before the estimated date of delivery. The parents were referred to the hospital social worker before the delivery. To assess attachment, we observed the parents' behavior toward their children during two daily 15-minute periods of free, unstructured interaction. The parents showed good primary caregiving functions and established affective verbal and physical contact with the infants. They began to recognize the infants' needs and temperament, and exhibited an aura of self-confidence during their interactions. All expressed satisfaction with the method at discharge and reported on reduction of their fears about returning home with the infants. We believe that early hospitalization of the genetic mother in a surrogate delivery may be desirable to establish good and safe early mother-infant bonding, and that it should be considered for adoption as regular hospital policy. Further randomized studies with larger samples over the long term are warranted.

Surrogate endpoints for overall survival in digestive oncology trials: which candidates? A questionnaires survey among clinicians and methodologists

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Overall survival (OS) is the gold standard for the demonstration of a clinical benefit in cancer trials. Replacement of OS by a surrogate endpoint allows to reduce trial duration. To date, few surrogate endpoints have been validated in digestive oncology. The aim of this study was to draw up an ordered list of potential surrogate endpoints for OS in digestive cancer trials, by way of a survey among clinicians and methodologists. Secondary objective was to obtain their opinion on surrogacy and quality of life (QoL). Methods In 2007 and 2008, self administered sequential questionnaires were sent to a panel of French clinicians and methodologists involved in the conduct of cancer clinical trials. In the first questionnaire, panellists were asked to choose the most important characteristics defining a surrogate among six proposals, to give advantages and drawbacks of the surrogates, and to answer questions about their validation and use. Then they had to suggest potential surrogate endpoints for OS in each of the following tumour sites: oesophagus, stomach, liver, pancreas, biliary tract, lymphoma, colon, rectum, and anus. They finally gave their opinion on QoL as surrogate endpoint. In the second questionnaire, they had to classify the previously proposed candidate surrogates from the most (position #1) to the least relevant in their opinion. Frequency at which the endpoints were chosen as first, second or third most relevant surrogates was calculated and served as final ranking. Results Response rate was 30% (24/80) in the first round and 20% (16/80) in the second one. Participants highlighted key points concerning surrogacy. In particular, they reminded that a surrogate endpoint is expected to predict clinical benefit in a well-defined therapeutic situation. Half of them thought it was not relevant to study QoL as surrogate for OS. DFS, in the neoadjuvant settings or early stages, and PFS, in the non operable or metastatic settings, were ranked first, with a frequency of more than 69% in 20 out of 22 settings. PFS was proposed in association with QoL in metastatic primary liver and stomach cancers (both 81%). This composite endpoint was ranked second in metastatic oesophageal (69%), colorectal (56%) and anal (56%) cancers, whereas QoL alone was also suggested in most metastatic situations. Other endpoints frequently suggested were R0 resection in the neoadjuvant settings (oesophagus (69%), stomach (56%), pancreas (75%) and biliary tract (63%)) and response. An unexpected endpoint was metastatic PFS in non operable oesophageal (31%) and pancreatic (44%) cancers. Quality and results of surgical procedures like sphincter preservation were also cited as eligible surrogate endpoints in rectal (19%) and anal (50% in case of localized disease) cancers. Except for alpha-FP kinetic in hepatocellular carcinoma (13%) and CA19-9 decline (6%) in pancreas, few endpoints based on biological or tumour markers were proposed. Conclusion The overall results should help prioritise the endpoints to be statistically evaluated as surrogate for OS, so that trialists and clinicians can rely on endpoints that ensure relevant clinical benefit to the patient. PMID:20537166

An adaptive Gaussian process-based method for efficient Bayesian experimental design in groundwater contaminant source identification problems: ADAPTIVE GAUSSIAN PROCESS-BASED INVERSION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Jiangjiang; Li, Weixuan; Zeng, Lingzao

Surrogate models are commonly used in Bayesian approaches such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to avoid repetitive CPU-demanding model evaluations. However, the approximation error of a surrogate may lead to biased estimations of the posterior distribution. This bias can be corrected by constructing a very accurate surrogate or implementing MCMC in a two-stage manner. Since the two-stage MCMC requires extra original model evaluations, the computational cost is still high. If the information of measurement is incorporated, a locally accurate approximation of the original model can be adaptively constructed with low computational cost. Based on this idea, we propose amore » Gaussian process (GP) surrogate-based Bayesian experimental design and parameter estimation approach for groundwater contaminant source identification problems. A major advantage of the GP surrogate is that it provides a convenient estimation of the approximation error, which can be incorporated in the Bayesian formula to avoid over-confident estimation of the posterior distribution. The proposed approach is tested with a numerical case study. Without sacrificing the estimation accuracy, the new approach achieves about 200 times of speed-up compared to our previous work using two-stage MCMC.« less

The Effect of Framing on Surrogate Optimism Bias: A Simulation Study

PubMed Central

Patel, Dev; Cohen, Elan D.; Barnato, Amber E.

2016-01-01

Purpose To explore the effect of emotion priming and physician communication behaviors on optimism bias. Materials and Methods We conducted a 5 × 2 between-subject randomized factorial experiment using a web-based interactive video designed to simulate a family meeting for a critically ill spouse/parent. Eligibility included age ≥ 35 and self-identifying as the surrogate for a spouse/parent. The primary outcome was the surrogate's election of code status. We defined optimism bias as the surrogate's estimate of prognosis with CPR > their recollection of the physician's estimate. Results 256/373 respondents (69%) logged-in and were randomized and 220 (86%) had non-missing data for prognosis. 67/220 (30%) overall, and 56/173 (32%) of those with an accurate recollection of the physician's estimate had optimism bias. Optimism bias correlated with choosing CPR (p<.001). Emotion priming (p=.397), physician attention to emotion (p=.537), and framing of CPR as the social norm (p=.884) did not affect optimism bias. Framing the decision as the patient's vs. the surrogate's (25% vs. 36%, p=.066) and describing the alternative to CPR as “allow natural death” instead of “do not resuscitate” (25% vs. 37%, p =.035) decreased optimism bias. Conclusions Framing of CPR choice during code status conversations may influence surrogates’ optimism bias. PMID:26796950

Silver-Catalyzed [2+1] Cyclopropenation of Alkynes with Unstable Diazoalkanes: N-Nosylhydrazones as Room-Temperature Decomposable Diazo Surrogates.

PubMed

Liu, Zhaohong; Li, Qiangqiang; Liao, Peiqiu; Bi, Xihe

2017-04-06

The [2+1] cycloaddition of alkynes with diazo compounds represents one of the most powerful and reliable methods for the construction of cyclopropenes. However, it remains a formidable challenge to accomplish the cyclopropenation of alkynes with non-stabilized diazoalkanes, owing to the fact that such compounds are unstable and prone to detonation. Herein, we report a general silver-catalyzed cyclopropenation reaction of alkynes with unstable diazoalkanes, by for the first time the discovery and application of N-nosylhydrazones as room-temperature decomposiable diazo surrogates. This method allows for the efficient assembly a wide variety of cyclopropene derivatives that are otherwise difficult to access by conventional methods. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Compositional effects on the ignition of FACE gasolines [Compositional effects on the ignition of FACE gasoline fuels: experiments, surrogate fuel formulation, and chemical kinetic modeling

DOE PAGES

Sarathy, S. Mani; Kukkadapu, Goutham; Mehl, Marco; ...

2016-05-08

As regulatory measures for improved fuel economy and decreased emissions are pushing gasoline engine combustion technologies towards extreme conditions (i.e., boosted and intercooled intake with exhaust gas recirculation), fuel ignition characteristics become increasingly important for enabling stable operation. Here, this study explores the effects of chemical composition on the fundamental ignition behavior of gasoline fuels. Two well-characterized, high-octane, non-oxygenated FACE (Fuels for Advanced Combustion Engines) gasolines, FACE F and FACE G, having similar antiknock indices but different octane sensitivities and chemical compositions are studied. Ignition experiments were conducted in shock tubes and a rapid compression machine (RCM) at nominal pressuresmore » of 20 and 40 atm, equivalence ratios of 0.5 and 1.0, and temperatures ranging from 650 to 1270 K. Results at temperatures above 900 K indicate that ignition delay time is similar for these fuels. However, RCM measurements below 900 K demonstrate a stronger negative temperature coefficient behavior for FACE F gasoline having lower octane sensitivity. In addition, RCM pressure profiles under two-stage ignition conditions illustrate that the magnitude of low-temperature heat release (LTHR) increases with decreasing fuel octane sensitivity. However, intermediate-temperature heat release is shown to increase as fuel octane sensitivity increases. Various surrogate fuel mixtures were formulated to conduct chemical kinetic modeling, and complex multicomponent surrogate mixtures were shown to reproduce experimentally observed trends better than simpler two- and three-component mixtures composed of n-heptane, iso-octane, and toluene. Measurements in a Cooperative Fuels Research (CFR) engine demonstrated that the multicomponent surrogates accurately captured the antiknock quality of the FACE gasolines. Simulations were performed using multicomponent surrogates for FACE F and G to reveal the underlying chemical kinetics linking fuel composition with ignition characteristics. Finally, a key discovery of this work is the kinetic coupling between aromatics and naphthenes, which affects the radical pool population and thereby controls ignition.« less

Compositional effects on the ignition of FACE gasolines [Compositional effects on the ignition of FACE gasoline fuels: experiments, surrogate fuel formulation, and chemical kinetic modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sarathy, S. Mani; Kukkadapu, Goutham; Mehl, Marco

As regulatory measures for improved fuel economy and decreased emissions are pushing gasoline engine combustion technologies towards extreme conditions (i.e., boosted and intercooled intake with exhaust gas recirculation), fuel ignition characteristics become increasingly important for enabling stable operation. Here, this study explores the effects of chemical composition on the fundamental ignition behavior of gasoline fuels. Two well-characterized, high-octane, non-oxygenated FACE (Fuels for Advanced Combustion Engines) gasolines, FACE F and FACE G, having similar antiknock indices but different octane sensitivities and chemical compositions are studied. Ignition experiments were conducted in shock tubes and a rapid compression machine (RCM) at nominal pressuresmore » of 20 and 40 atm, equivalence ratios of 0.5 and 1.0, and temperatures ranging from 650 to 1270 K. Results at temperatures above 900 K indicate that ignition delay time is similar for these fuels. However, RCM measurements below 900 K demonstrate a stronger negative temperature coefficient behavior for FACE F gasoline having lower octane sensitivity. In addition, RCM pressure profiles under two-stage ignition conditions illustrate that the magnitude of low-temperature heat release (LTHR) increases with decreasing fuel octane sensitivity. However, intermediate-temperature heat release is shown to increase as fuel octane sensitivity increases. Various surrogate fuel mixtures were formulated to conduct chemical kinetic modeling, and complex multicomponent surrogate mixtures were shown to reproduce experimentally observed trends better than simpler two- and three-component mixtures composed of n-heptane, iso-octane, and toluene. Measurements in a Cooperative Fuels Research (CFR) engine demonstrated that the multicomponent surrogates accurately captured the antiknock quality of the FACE gasolines. Simulations were performed using multicomponent surrogates for FACE F and G to reveal the underlying chemical kinetics linking fuel composition with ignition characteristics. Finally, a key discovery of this work is the kinetic coupling between aromatics and naphthenes, which affects the radical pool population and thereby controls ignition.« less

Evaluating principal surrogate endpoints with time-to-event data accounting for time-varying treatment efficacy

PubMed Central

Gabriel, Erin E.; Gilbert, Peter B.

2014-01-01

Principal surrogate (PS) endpoints are relatively inexpensive and easy to measure study outcomes that can be used to reliably predict treatment effects on clinical endpoints of interest. Few statistical methods for assessing the validity of potential PSs utilize time-to-event clinical endpoint information and to our knowledge none allow for the characterization of time-varying treatment effects. We introduce the time-dependent and surrogate-dependent treatment efficacy curve, \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document} }{}${\\mathrm {TE}}(t|s)$\\end{document}, and a new augmented trial design for assessing the quality of a biomarker as a PS. We propose a novel Weibull model and an estimated maximum likelihood method for estimation of the \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document} }{}${\\mathrm {TE}}(t|s)$\\end{document} curve. We describe the operating characteristics of our methods via simulations. We analyze data from the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial, in which we find evidence of a biomarker with value as a PS. PMID:24337534

A Fast Surrogate-facilitated Data-driven Bayesian Approach to Uncertainty Quantification of a Regional Groundwater Flow Model with Structural Error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, T.; Valocchi, A. J.; Ye, M.; Liang, F.

2016-12-01

Due to simplification and/or misrepresentation of the real aquifer system, numerical groundwater flow and solute transport models are usually subject to model structural error. During model calibration, the hydrogeological parameters may be overly adjusted to compensate for unknown structural error. This may result in biased predictions when models are used to forecast aquifer response to new forcing. In this study, we extend a fully Bayesian method [Xu and Valocchi, 2015] to calibrate a real-world, regional groundwater flow model. The method uses a data-driven error model to describe model structural error and jointly infers model parameters and structural error. In this study, Bayesian inference is facilitated using high performance computing and fast surrogate models. The surrogate models are constructed using machine learning techniques to emulate the response simulated by the computationally expensive groundwater model. We demonstrate in the real-world case study that explicitly accounting for model structural error yields parameter posterior distributions that are substantially different from those derived by the classical Bayesian calibration that does not account for model structural error. In addition, the Bayesian with error model method gives significantly more accurate prediction along with reasonable credible intervals.

Local-metrics error-based Shepard interpolation as surrogate for highly non-linear material models in high dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenzi, Juan M.; Stecher, Thomas; Reuter, Karsten; Matera, Sebastian

2017-10-01

Many problems in computational materials science and chemistry require the evaluation of expensive functions with locally rapid changes, such as the turn-over frequency of first principles kinetic Monte Carlo models for heterogeneous catalysis. Because of the high computational cost, it is often desirable to replace the original with a surrogate model, e.g., for use in coupled multiscale simulations. The construction of surrogates becomes particularly challenging in high-dimensions. Here, we present a novel version of the modified Shepard interpolation method which can overcome the curse of dimensionality for such functions to give faithful reconstructions even from very modest numbers of function evaluations. The introduction of local metrics allows us to take advantage of the fact that, on a local scale, rapid variation often occurs only across a small number of directions. Furthermore, we use local error estimates to weigh different local approximations, which helps avoid artificial oscillations. Finally, we test our approach on a number of challenging analytic functions as well as a realistic kinetic Monte Carlo model. Our method not only outperforms existing isotropic metric Shepard methods but also state-of-the-art Gaussian process regression.

Local-metrics error-based Shepard interpolation as surrogate for highly non-linear material models in high dimensions.

PubMed

Lorenzi, Juan M; Stecher, Thomas; Reuter, Karsten; Matera, Sebastian

2017-10-28

Many problems in computational materials science and chemistry require the evaluation of expensive functions with locally rapid changes, such as the turn-over frequency of first principles kinetic Monte Carlo models for heterogeneous catalysis. Because of the high computational cost, it is often desirable to replace the original with a surrogate model, e.g., for use in coupled multiscale simulations. The construction of surrogates becomes particularly challenging in high-dimensions. Here, we present a novel version of the modified Shepard interpolation method which can overcome the curse of dimensionality for such functions to give faithful reconstructions even from very modest numbers of function evaluations. The introduction of local metrics allows us to take advantage of the fact that, on a local scale, rapid variation often occurs only across a small number of directions. Furthermore, we use local error estimates to weigh different local approximations, which helps avoid artificial oscillations. Finally, we test our approach on a number of challenging analytic functions as well as a realistic kinetic Monte Carlo model. Our method not only outperforms existing isotropic metric Shepard methods but also state-of-the-art Gaussian process regression.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kiely, J Blanco; Olszanski, A; Both, S

Purpose: To develop a quantitative decision making metric for automatically detecting irregular breathing using a large patient population that received phase-sorted 4DCT. Methods: This study employed two patient cohorts. Cohort#1 contained 256 patients who received a phasesorted 4DCT. Cohort#2 contained 86 patients who received three weekly phase-sorted 4DCT scans. A previously published technique used a single abdominal surrogate to calculate the ratio of extreme inhalation tidal volume to normal inhalation tidal volume, referred to as the κ metric. Since a single surrogate is standard for phase-sorted 4DCT in radiation oncology clinical practice, tidal volume was not quantified. Without tidal volume,more » the absolute κ metric could not be determined, so a relative κ (κrel) metric was defined based on the measured surrogate amplitude instead of tidal volume. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were used to quantitatively determine the optimal cutoff value (jk) and efficiency cutoff value (τk) of κrel to automatically identify irregular breathing that would reduce the image quality of phase-sorted 4DCT. Discriminatory accuracy (area under the ROC curve) of κrel was calculated by a trapezoidal numeric integration technique. Results: The discriminatory accuracy of ?rel was found to be 0.746. The key values of jk and tk were calculated to be 1.45 and 1.72 respectively. For values of ?rel such that jk≤κrel≤τk, the decision to reacquire the 4DCT would be at the discretion of the physician. This accounted for only 11.9% of the patients in this study. The magnitude of κrel held consistent over 3 weeks for 73% of the patients in cohort#3. Conclusion: The decision making metric, ?rel, was shown to be an accurate classifier of irregular breathing patients in a large patient population. This work provided an automatic quantitative decision making metric to quickly and accurately assess the extent to which irregular breathing is occurring during phase-sorted 4DCT.« less

Improving Mixed Variable Optimization of Computational and Model Parameters Using Multiple Surrogate Functions

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

multiplicative corrections as well as space mapping transformations for models defined over a lower dimensional space. A corrected surrogate model for the...correction functions used in [72]. If the low fidelity model g(x̃) is defined over a lower dimensional space then a space mapping transformation is...required. As defined in [21, 72], space mapping is a method of mapping between models of different dimensionality or fidelity. Let P denote the space

Creating a behavioural classification module for acceleration data: using a captive surrogate for difficult to observe species.

PubMed

Campbell, Hamish A; Gao, Lianli; Bidder, Owen R; Hunter, Jane; Franklin, Craig E

2013-12-15

Distinguishing specific behavioural modes from data collected by animal-borne tri-axial accelerometers can be a time-consuming and subjective process. Data synthesis can be further inhibited when the tri-axial acceleration data cannot be paired with the corresponding behavioural mode through direct observation. Here, we explored the use of a tame surrogate (domestic dog) to build a behavioural classification module, and then used that module to accurately identify and quantify behavioural modes within acceleration collected from other individuals/species. Tri-axial acceleration data were recorded from a domestic dog whilst it was commanded to walk, run, sit, stand and lie-down. Through video synchronisation, each tri-axial acceleration sample was annotated with its associated behavioural mode; the feature vectors were extracted and used to build the classification module through the application of support vector machines (SVMs). This behavioural classification module was then used to identify and quantify the same behavioural modes in acceleration collected from a range of other species (alligator, badger, cheetah, dingo, echidna, kangaroo and wombat). Evaluation of the module performance, using a binary classification system, showed there was a high capacity (>90%) for behaviour recognition between individuals of the same species. Furthermore, a positive correlation existed between SVM capacity and the similarity of the individual's spinal length-to-height above the ground ratio (SL:SH) to that of the surrogate. The study describes how to build a behavioural classification module and highlights the value of using a surrogate for studying cryptic, rare or endangered species.

Optimizing water resources management in large river basins with integrated surface water-groundwater modeling: A surrogate-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Bin; Zheng, Yi; Wu, Xin; Tian, Yong; Han, Feng; Liu, Jie; Zheng, Chunmiao

2015-04-01

Integrated surface water-groundwater modeling can provide a comprehensive and coherent understanding on basin-scale water cycle, but its high computational cost has impeded its application in real-world management. This study developed a new surrogate-based approach, SOIM (Surrogate-based Optimization for Integrated surface water-groundwater Modeling), to incorporate the integrated modeling into water management optimization. Its applicability and advantages were evaluated and validated through an optimization research on the conjunctive use of surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) for irrigation in a semiarid region in northwest China. GSFLOW, an integrated SW-GW model developed by USGS, was employed. The study results show that, due to the strong and complicated SW-GW interactions, basin-scale water saving could be achieved by spatially optimizing the ratios of groundwater use in different irrigation districts. The water-saving potential essentially stems from the reduction of nonbeneficial evapotranspiration from the aqueduct system and shallow groundwater, and its magnitude largely depends on both water management schemes and hydrological conditions. Important implications for water resources management in general include: first, environmental flow regulation needs to take into account interannual variation of hydrological conditions, as well as spatial complexity of SW-GW interactions; and second, to resolve water use conflicts between upper stream and lower stream, a system approach is highly desired to reflect ecological, economic, and social concerns in water management decisions. Overall, this study highlights that surrogate-based approaches like SOIM represent a promising solution to filling the gap between complex environmental modeling and real-world management decision-making.

A Multi-Fidelity Surrogate Model for the Equation of State for Mixtures of Real Gases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouellet, Frederick; Park, Chanyoung; Koneru, Rahul; Balachandar, S.; Rollin, Bertrand

2017-11-01

The explosive dispersal of particles is a complex multiphase and multi-species fluid flow problem. In these flows, the products of detonated explosives must be treated as real gases while the ideal gas equation of state is used for the ambient air. As the products expand outward, they mix with the air and create a region where both state equations must be satisfied. One of the most accurate, yet expensive, methods to handle this problem is an algorithm that iterates between both state equations until both pressure and thermal equilibrium are achieved inside of each computational cell. This work creates a multi-fidelity surrogate model to replace this process. This is achieved by using a Kriging model to produce a curve fit which interpolates selected data from the iterative algorithm. The surrogate is optimized for computing speed and model accuracy by varying the number of sampling points chosen to construct the model. The performance of the surrogate with respect to the iterative method is tested in simulations using a finite volume code. The model's computational speed and accuracy are analyzed to show the benefits of this novel approach. This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration, Advanced Simulation and Computing Program, as a Cooperative Agreement under the Predictive Science Academic Alliance Program, under Contract No. DE-NA00023.

An Empirical Assessment and Comparison of Species-Based and Habitat-Based Surrogates: A Case Study of Forest Vertebrates and Large Old Trees

PubMed Central

Lindenmayer, David B.; Barton, Philip S.; Lane, Peter W.; Westgate, Martin J.; McBurney, Lachlan; Blair, David; Gibbons, Philip; Likens, Gene E.

2014-01-01

A holy grail of conservation is to find simple but reliable measures of environmental change to guide management. For example, particular species or particular habitat attributes are often used as proxies for the abundance or diversity of a subset of other taxa. However, the efficacy of such kinds of species-based surrogates and habitat-based surrogates is rarely assessed, nor are different kinds of surrogates compared in terms of their relative effectiveness. We use 30-year datasets on arboreal marsupials and vegetation structure to quantify the effectiveness of: (1) the abundance of a particular species of arboreal marsupial as a species-based surrogate for other arboreal marsupial taxa, (2) hollow-bearing tree abundance as a habitat-based surrogate for arboreal marsupial abundance, and (3) a combination of species- and habitat-based surrogates. We also quantify the robustness of species-based and habitat-based surrogates over time. We then use the same approach to model overall species richness of arboreal marsupials. We show that a species-based surrogate can appear to be a valid surrogate until a habitat-based surrogate is co-examined, after which the effectiveness of the former is lost. The addition of a species-based surrogate to a habitat-based surrogate made little difference in explaining arboreal marsupial abundance, but altered the co-occurrence relationship between species. Hence, there was limited value in simultaneously using a combination of kinds of surrogates. The habitat-based surrogate also generally performed significantly better and was easier and less costly to gather than the species-based surrogate. We found that over 30 years of study, the relationships which underpinned the habitat-based surrogate generally remained positive but variable over time. Our work highlights why it is important to compare the effectiveness of different broad classes of surrogates and identify situations when either species- or habitat-based surrogates are likely to be superior. PMID:24587050

An empirical assessment and comparison of species-based and habitat-based surrogates: a case study of forest vertebrates and large old trees.

PubMed

Lindenmayer, David B; Barton, Philip S; Lane, Peter W; Westgate, Martin J; McBurney, Lachlan; Blair, David; Gibbons, Philip; Likens, Gene E

2014-01-01

A holy grail of conservation is to find simple but reliable measures of environmental change to guide management. For example, particular species or particular habitat attributes are often used as proxies for the abundance or diversity of a subset of other taxa. However, the efficacy of such kinds of species-based surrogates and habitat-based surrogates is rarely assessed, nor are different kinds of surrogates compared in terms of their relative effectiveness. We use 30-year datasets on arboreal marsupials and vegetation structure to quantify the effectiveness of: (1) the abundance of a particular species of arboreal marsupial as a species-based surrogate for other arboreal marsupial taxa, (2) hollow-bearing tree abundance as a habitat-based surrogate for arboreal marsupial abundance, and (3) a combination of species- and habitat-based surrogates. We also quantify the robustness of species-based and habitat-based surrogates over time. We then use the same approach to model overall species richness of arboreal marsupials. We show that a species-based surrogate can appear to be a valid surrogate until a habitat-based surrogate is co-examined, after which the effectiveness of the former is lost. The addition of a species-based surrogate to a habitat-based surrogate made little difference in explaining arboreal marsupial abundance, but altered the co-occurrence relationship between species. Hence, there was limited value in simultaneously using a combination of kinds of surrogates. The habitat-based surrogate also generally performed significantly better and was easier and less costly to gather than the species-based surrogate. We found that over 30 years of study, the relationships which underpinned the habitat-based surrogate generally remained positive but variable over time. Our work highlights why it is important to compare the effectiveness of different broad classes of surrogates and identify situations when either species- or habitat-based surrogates are likely to be superior.

An ultrasensitive bio-surrogate for nanoporous filter membrane performance metrology directed towards contamination control in microlithography applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, Farhan; Mish, Barbara; Qiu, Jian; Singh, Amarnauth; Varanasi, Rao; Bedford, Eilidh; Smith, Martin

2016-03-01

Contamination tolerances in semiconductor manufacturing processes have changed dramatically in the past two decades, reaching below 20 nm according to the guidelines of the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors. The move to narrower line widths drives the need for innovative filtration technologies that can achieve higher particle/contaminant removal performance resulting in cleaner process fluids. Nanoporous filter membrane metrology tools that have been the workhorse over the past decade are also now reaching limits. For example, nanoparticle (NP) challenge testing is commonly applied for assessing particle retention performance of filter membranes. Factors such as high NP size dispersity, low NP detection sensitivity, and high NP particle-filter affinity impose challenges in characterizing the next generation of nanoporous filter membranes. We report a novel bio-surrogate, 5 nm DNA-dendrimer conjugate for evaluating particle retention performance of nanoporous filter membranes. A technique capable of single molecule detection is employed to detect sparse concentration of conjugate in filter permeate, providing >1000- fold higher detection sensitivity than any existing 5 nm-sized particle enumeration technique. This bio-surrogate also offers narrow size distribution, high stability and chemical tunability. This bio-surrogate can discriminate various sub-15 nm pore-rated nanoporous filter membranes based on their particle retention performance. Due to high bio-surrogate detection sensitivity, a lower challenge concentration of bio-surrogate (as compared to other NPs of this size) can be used for filter testing, providing a better representation of customer applications. This new method should provide better understanding of the next generation filter membranes for removing defect-causing contaminants from lithography processes.

Comparison between Surrogate Indexes of Insulin Sensitivity/Resistance and Hyperinsulinemic Euglycemic Glucose Clamps in Rhesus Monkeys

PubMed Central

Lee, Ho-Won; Muniyappa, Ranganath; Yan, Xu; Yue, Lilly Q.; Linden, Ellen H.; Chen, Hui; Hansen, Barbara C.

2011-01-01

The euglycemic glucose clamp is the reference method for assessing insulin sensitivity in humans and animals. However, clamps are ill-suited for large studies because of extensive requirements for cost, time, labor, and technical expertise. Simple surrogate indexes of insulin sensitivity/resistance including quantitative insulin-sensitivity check index (QUICKI) and homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) have been developed and validated in humans. However, validation studies of QUICKI and HOMA in both rats and mice suggest that differences in metabolic physiology between rodents and humans limit their value in rodents. Rhesus monkeys are a species more similar to humans than rodents. Therefore, in the present study, we evaluated data from 199 glucose clamp studies obtained from a large cohort of 86 monkeys with a broad range of insulin sensitivity. Data were used to evaluate simple surrogate indexes of insulin sensitivity/resistance (QUICKI, HOMA, Log HOMA, 1/HOMA, and 1/Fasting insulin) with respect to linear regression, predictive accuracy using a calibration model, and diagnostic performance using receiver operating characteristic. Most surrogates had modest linear correlations with SIClamp (r ≈ 0.4–0.64) with comparable correlation coefficients. Predictive accuracy determined by calibration model analysis demonstrated better predictive accuracy of QUICKI than HOMA and Log HOMA. Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed equivalent sensitivity and specificity of most surrogate indexes to detect insulin resistance. Thus, unlike in rodents but similar to humans, surrogate indexes of insulin sensitivity/resistance including QUICKI and log HOMA may be reasonable to use in large studies of rhesus monkeys where it may be impractical to conduct glucose clamp studies. PMID:21209021

Generalized sample entropy analysis for traffic signals based on similarity measure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shang, Du; Xu, Mengjia; Shang, Pengjian

2017-05-01

Sample entropy is a prevailing method used to quantify the complexity of a time series. In this paper a modified method of generalized sample entropy and surrogate data analysis is proposed as a new measure to assess the complexity of a complex dynamical system such as traffic signals. The method based on similarity distance presents a different way of signals patterns match showing distinct behaviors of complexity. Simulations are conducted over synthetic data and traffic signals for providing the comparative study, which is provided to show the power of the new method. Compared with previous sample entropy and surrogate data analysis, the new method has two main advantages. The first one is that it overcomes the limitation about the relationship between the dimension parameter and the length of series. The second one is that the modified sample entropy functions can be used to quantitatively distinguish time series from different complex systems by the similar measure.

Deflection corridors of abdomen and thorax in oblique side impacts using equal stress equal velocity approach: comparison with other normalization methods.

PubMed

Yoganandan, Narayan; Arun, Mike W J; Humm, John; Pintar, Frank A

2014-10-01

The first objective of the study was to determine the thorax and abdomen deflection time corridors using the equal stress equal velocity approach from oblique side impact sled tests with postmortem human surrogates fitted with chestbands. The second purpose of the study was to generate deflection time corridors using impulse momentum methods and determine which of these methods best suits the data. An anthropometry-specific load wall was used. Individual surrogate responses were normalized to standard midsize male anthropometry. Corridors from the equal stress equal velocity approach were very similar to those from impulse momentum methods, thus either method can be used for this data. Present mean and plus/minus one standard deviation abdomen and thorax deflection time corridors can be used to evaluate dummies and validate complex human body finite element models.

Surrogate decision making: do we have to trade off accuracy and procedural satisfaction?

PubMed

Frey, Renato; Hertwig, Ralph; Herzog, Stefan M

2014-02-01

Making surrogate decisions on behalf of incapacitated patients can raise difficult questions for relatives, physicians, and society. Previous research has focused on the accuracy of surrogate decisions (i.e., the proportion of correctly inferred preferences). Less attention has been paid to the procedural satisfaction that patients' surrogates and patients attribute to specific approaches to making surrogate decisions. The objective was to investigate hypothetical patients' and surrogates' procedural satisfaction with specific approaches to making surrogate decisions and whether implementing these preferences would lead to tradeoffs between procedural satisfaction and accuracy. Study 1 investigated procedural satisfaction by assigning participants (618 in a mixed-age but relatively young online sample and 50 in an older offline sample) to the roles of hypothetical surrogates or patients. Study 2 (involving 64 real multigenerational families with a total of 253 participants) investigated accuracy using 24 medical scenarios. Hypothetical patients and surrogates had closely aligned preferences: Procedural satisfaction was highest with a patient-designated surrogate, followed by shared surrogate decision-making approaches and legally assigned surrogates. These approaches did not differ substantially in accuracy. Limitations are that participants' preferences regarding existing and novel approaches to making surrogate decisions can only be elicited under hypothetical conditions. Next to decision making by patient-designated surrogates, shared surrogate decision making is the preferred approach among patients and surrogates alike. This approach appears to impose no tradeoff between procedural satisfaction and accuracy. Therefore, shared decision making should be further studied in representative samples of the general population, and if people's preferences prove to be robust, they deserve to be weighted more strongly in legal frameworks in addition to patient-designated surrogates.

Soyuz 7 Return Samples: Assessment of Air Quality Aboard the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, John T.

2004-01-01

The toxicological assessments of one grab sample canister (GSC), 6 dual sorbent tubes (DSTs), and 20 formaldehyde badges returned aboard Soyuz 7 are reported. Analytical methods have not changed from earlier reports. Surrogate standard recoveries from the GSC were 84-89%. The recoveries of the less volatile surrogates from the DSTs were 87 to 112%; however, 13C-acetone was only recovered at 53-59%. Formaldehyde recoveries from 2 lab controls were 87 and 95%; trip controls were not returned to ground.

Model based Inverse Methods for Sizing Cracks of Varying Shape and Location in Bolt hole Eddy Current (BHEC) Inspections (Postprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-02-10

using bolt hole eddy current (BHEC) techniques. Data was acquired for a wide range of crack sizes and shapes, including mid- bore , corner and through...to select the most appropriate VIC-3D surrogate model for subsequent crack sizing inversion step. Inversion results for select mid- bore , through and...the flaw. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Bolt hole eddy current (BHEC); mid- bore , corner and through-thickness crack types; VIC-3D generated surrogate models

Chemical kinetic simulation of kerosene combustion in an individual flame tube.

PubMed

Zeng, Wen; Liang, Shuang; Li, Hai-Xia; Ma, Hong-An

2014-05-01

The use of detailed chemical reaction mechanisms of kerosene is still very limited in analyzing the combustion process in the combustion chamber of the aircraft engine. In this work, a new reduced chemical kinetic mechanism for fuel n-decane, which selected as a surrogate fuel for kerosene, containing 210 elemental reactions (including 92 reversible reactions and 26 irreversible reactions) and 50 species was developed, and the ignition and combustion characteristics of this fuel in both shock tube and flat-flame burner were kinetic simulated using this reduced reaction mechanism. Moreover, the computed results were validated by experimental data. The calculated values of ignition delay times at pressures of 12, 50 bar and equivalence ratio is 1.0, 2.0, respectively, and the main reactants and main products mole fractions using this reduced reaction mechanism agree well with experimental data. The combustion processes in the individual flame tube of a heavy duty gas turbine combustor were simulated by coupling this reduced reaction mechanism of surrogate fuel n-decane and one step reaction mechanism of surrogate fuel C12H23 into the computational fluid dynamics software. It was found that this reduced reaction mechanism is shown clear advantages in simulating the ignition and combustion processes in the individual flame tube over the one step reaction mechanism.

Chemical kinetic simulation of kerosene combustion in an individual flame tube

PubMed Central

Zeng, Wen; Liang, Shuang; Li, Hai-xia; Ma, Hong-an

2013-01-01

The use of detailed chemical reaction mechanisms of kerosene is still very limited in analyzing the combustion process in the combustion chamber of the aircraft engine. In this work, a new reduced chemical kinetic mechanism for fuel n-decane, which selected as a surrogate fuel for kerosene, containing 210 elemental reactions (including 92 reversible reactions and 26 irreversible reactions) and 50 species was developed, and the ignition and combustion characteristics of this fuel in both shock tube and flat-flame burner were kinetic simulated using this reduced reaction mechanism. Moreover, the computed results were validated by experimental data. The calculated values of ignition delay times at pressures of 12, 50 bar and equivalence ratio is 1.0, 2.0, respectively, and the main reactants and main products mole fractions using this reduced reaction mechanism agree well with experimental data. The combustion processes in the individual flame tube of a heavy duty gas turbine combustor were simulated by coupling this reduced reaction mechanism of surrogate fuel n-decane and one step reaction mechanism of surrogate fuel C12H23 into the computational fluid dynamics software. It was found that this reduced reaction mechanism is shown clear advantages in simulating the ignition and combustion processes in the individual flame tube over the one step reaction mechanism. PMID:25685503

Initiation of depleted uranium oxide and spent fuel testing for the spent fuel sabotage aerosol ratio program.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gregson, Michael Warren; Mo, Tin; Sorenson, Ken Bryce

The authors provide a detailed overview of an on-going, multinational test program that is developing aerosol data for some spent fuel sabotage scenarios on spent fuel transport and storage casks. Experiments are being performed to quantify the aerosolized materials plus volatilized fission products generated from actual spent fuel and surrogate material test rods, due to impact by a high-energy-density device. The program participants in the United States plus Germany, France and the United Kingdom, part of the international Working Group for Sabotage Concerns of Transport and Storage Casks (WGSTSC) have strongly supported and coordinated this research program. Sandia National Laboratoriesmore » has the lead role for conducting this research program; test program support is provided by both the US Department of Energy and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The authors provide a summary of the overall, multiphase test design and a description of all explosive containment and aerosol collection test components used. They focus on the recently initiated tests on 'surrogate' spent fuel, unirradiated depleted uranium oxide and forthcoming actual spent fuel tests, and briefly summarize similar results from completed surrogate tests that used non-radioactive, sintered cerium oxide ceramic pellets in test rods.« less

Hybrid surrogate-model-based multi-fidelity efficient global optimization applied to helicopter blade design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ariyarit, Atthaphon; Sugiura, Masahiko; Tanabe, Yasutada; Kanazaki, Masahiro

2018-06-01

A multi-fidelity optimization technique by an efficient global optimization process using a hybrid surrogate model is investigated for solving real-world design problems. The model constructs the local deviation using the kriging method and the global model using a radial basis function. The expected improvement is computed to decide additional samples that can improve the model. The approach was first investigated by solving mathematical test problems. The results were compared with optimization results from an ordinary kriging method and a co-kriging method, and the proposed method produced the best solution. The proposed method was also applied to aerodynamic design optimization of helicopter blades to obtain the maximum blade efficiency. The optimal shape obtained by the proposed method achieved performance almost equivalent to that obtained using the high-fidelity, evaluation-based single-fidelity optimization. Comparing all three methods, the proposed method required the lowest total number of high-fidelity evaluation runs to obtain a converged solution.

Automated On-tip Affinity Capture Coupled with Mass Spectrometry to Characterize Intact Antibody-Drug Conjugates from Blood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ke Sherry; Chu, Phillip Y.; Fourie-O'Donohue, Aimee; Srikumar, Neha; Kozak, Katherine R.; Liu, Yichin; Tran, John C.

2018-05-01

Antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) present unique challenges for ligand-binding assays primarily due to the dynamic changes of the drug-to-antibody ratio (DAR) distribution in vivo and in vitro. Here, an automated on-tip affinity capture platform with subsequent mass spectrometry analysis was developed to accurately characterize the DAR distribution of ADCs from biological matrices. A variety of elution buffers were tested to offer optimal recovery, with trastuzumab serving as a surrogate to the ADCs. High assay repeatability (CV 3%) was achieved for trastuzumab antibody when captured below the maximal binding capacity of 7.5 μg. Efficient on-tip deglycosylation was also demonstrated in 1 h followed by affinity capture. Moreover, this tip-based platform affords higher throughput for DAR characterization when compared with a well-characterized bead-based method.

Comparison between several insulin sensitivity indices and metabolic risk factors in overweight and obese postmenopausal women: a MONET study.

PubMed

Malita, F M; Messier, V; Lavoie, J-M; Bastard, J-P; Rabasa-Lhoret, R; Karelis, A D

2010-03-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the relationship of several insulin sensitivity indices with cardiometabolic risk factors in overweight and obese postmenopausal women. This was a cross-sectional study involving 137 overweight and obese postmenopausal women (age: 57.7+/-4.8 yrs; body mass index: 32.4+/-4.6 kg/m(2); body fat: 38.6+/-9.2 kg). Insulin sensitivity was determined by the euglycaemic-hyperinsulinemic (EH) clamp technique as well as by oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) derived indices (Stumvoll, Matsuda and SI(is)) and fasting surrogate indices (HOMA, QUICKI). Cardiometabolic risk factors included: body composition and visceral fat that were measured using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry and computed tomography, respectively. Peak oxygen consumption, lower body muscle strength (using weight training equipment), physical activity energy expenditure (doubly labeled water), plasma lipids and C-reactive protein were also measured. Correlations of insulin sensitivity indices with metabolic risk factors showed some similarities, however, a wide range of variations were also observed. Furthermore, our results showed that visceral fat was the primary predictor for surrogate and OGTT indices, explaining 15-28% of the variance and the triglycerides/HDL-C ratio was the primary predictor for the EH clamp indices, explaining 15-17% of the variance. The present study indicates that the different methods of measuring and/or expressing insulin sensitivity display variations for associations with cardiometabolic risk factors. Therefore, interpretations of relationships between insulin sensitivity indices and cardiometabolic risk factors should take into account the method used to estimate and express insulin sensitivity. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A unified procedure for meta-analytic evaluation of surrogate end points in randomized clinical trials

PubMed Central

Dai, James Y.; Hughes, James P.

2012-01-01

The meta-analytic approach to evaluating surrogate end points assesses the predictiveness of treatment effect on the surrogate toward treatment effect on the clinical end point based on multiple clinical trials. Definition and estimation of the correlation of treatment effects were developed in linear mixed models and later extended to binary or failure time outcomes on a case-by-case basis. In a general regression setting that covers nonnormal outcomes, we discuss in this paper several metrics that are useful in the meta-analytic evaluation of surrogacy. We propose a unified 3-step procedure to assess these metrics in settings with binary end points, time-to-event outcomes, or repeated measures. First, the joint distribution of estimated treatment effects is ascertained by an estimating equation approach; second, the restricted maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the means and the variance components of the random treatment effects; finally, confidence intervals are constructed by a parametric bootstrap procedure. The proposed method is evaluated by simulations and applications to 2 clinical trials. PMID:22394448

Bayesian calibration of the Community Land Model using surrogates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ray, Jaideep; Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi

2014-02-01

We present results from the Bayesian calibration of hydrological parameters of the Community Land Model (CLM), which is often used in climate simulations and Earth system models. A statistical inverse problem is formulated for three hydrological parameters, conditional on observations of latent heat surface fluxes over 48 months. Our calibration method uses polynomial and Gaussian process surrogates of the CLM, and solves the parameter estimation problem using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. Posterior probability densities for the parameters are developed for two sites with different soil and vegetation covers. Our method also allows us to examine the structural errormore » in CLM under two error models. We find that surrogate models can be created for CLM in most cases. The posterior distributions are more predictive than the default parameter values in CLM. Climatologically averaging the observations does not modify the parameters' distributions significantly. The structural error model reveals a correlation time-scale which can be used to identify the physical process that could be contributing to it. While the calibrated CLM has a higher predictive skill, the calibration is under-dispersive.« less

Isotope Inversion Experiment evaluating the suitability of calibration in surrogate matrix for quantification via LC-MS/MS-Exemplary application for a steroid multi-method.

PubMed

Suhr, Anna Catharina; Vogeser, Michael; Grimm, Stefanie H

2016-05-30

For quotable quantitative analysis of endogenous analytes in complex biological samples by isotope dilution LC-MS/MS, the creation of appropriate calibrators is a challenge, since analyte-free authentic material is in general not available. Thus, surrogate matrices are often used to prepare calibrators and controls. However, currently employed validation protocols do not include specific experiments to verify the suitability of a surrogate matrix calibration for quantification of authentic matrix samples. The aim of the study was the development of a novel validation experiment to test whether surrogate matrix based calibrators enable correct quantification of authentic matrix samples. The key element of the novel validation experiment is the inversion of nonlabelled analytes and their stable isotope labelled (SIL) counterparts in respect to their functions, i.e. SIL compound is the analyte and nonlabelled substance is employed as internal standard. As a consequence, both surrogate and authentic matrix are analyte-free regarding SIL analytes, which allows a comparison of both matrices. We called this approach Isotope Inversion Experiment. As figure of merit we defined the accuracy of inverse quality controls in authentic matrix quantified by means of a surrogate matrix calibration curve. As a proof-of-concept application a LC-MS/MS assay addressing six corticosteroids (cortisol, cortisone, corticosterone, 11-deoxycortisol, 11-deoxycorticosterone, and 17-OH-progesterone) was chosen. The integration of the Isotope Inversion Experiment in the validation protocol for the steroid assay was successfully realized. The accuracy results of the inverse quality controls were all in all very satisfying. As a consequence the suitability of a surrogate matrix calibration for quantification of the targeted steroids in human serum as authentic matrix could be successfully demonstrated. The Isotope Inversion Experiment fills a gap in the validation process for LC-MS/MS assays quantifying endogenous analytes. We consider it a valuable and convenient tool to evaluate the correct quantification of authentic matrix samples based on a calibration curve in surrogate matrix. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness of Spray-Based Decontamination Methods for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report The objective of this project was to assess the effectiveness of spray-based common decontamination methods for inactivating Bacillus (B.) atrophaeus (surrogate for B. anthracis) spores and bacteriophage MS2 (surrogate for foot and mouth disease virus [FMDV]) on selected test surfaces (with or without a model agricultural soil load). Relocation of viable viruses or spores from the contaminated coupon surfaces into aerosol or liquid fractions during the decontamination methods was investigated. This project was conducted to support jointly held missions of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Within the EPA, the project supports the mission of EPA’s Homeland Security Research Program (HSRP) by providing relevant information pertinent to the decontamination of contaminated areas resulting from a biological incident.

CTEPP NC DATA QA/QC RESULTS

EPA Science Inventory

This data set contains the method performance results. This includes field blanks, method blanks, duplicate samples, analytical duplicates, matrix spikes, and surrogate recovery standards.

The Children’s Total Exposure to Persistent Pesticides and Other Persistent Pollutant (...

A toxin-free enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for the analysis of aflatoxins based on a VHH surrogate standard.

PubMed

Wang, Yanru; Li, Peiwu; Zhang, Qi; Hu, Xiaofeng; Zhang, Wen

2016-09-01

A toxin-free enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for aflatoxins was developed using an anti-idiotype nanobody VHH 2-5 as surrogate standard. Anti-idiotype nanobody VHH 2-5 was generated by immunizing an alpaca with anti-aflatoxin monoclonal antibody 1C11. This assay was used to detect aflatoxins in agro-products after a simple extraction with 75 % methanol/H2O. Aflatoxin concentration was calculated by a two-step approach: the concentration of VHH 2-5 was first obtained by a four-parameter logistic regression from the detected absorbance value at 450 nm, and then converted to aflatoxin concentration by a linear equation. The assay exhibits a limit of detection (LOD) of 0.015 ng mL(-1), which is better than or comparable with conventional immunoassays. The performance of our VHH surrogate-based ELISA was further validated with a high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method for total aflatoxins determination in 20 naturally contaminated peanut samples, displaying a good correlation (R (2) = 0.988). In conclusion, the proposed assay represents a first example applying an anti-idiotype VHH antibody as a standard surrogate in ELISA. With the advantages of high stability and ease of production, the VHH antibody-based standard surrogate can be extended in the future to immunoassays for other highly toxic compounds. Graphical Abstract ᅟ.

Two Decades of Cardiovascular Trials With Primary Surrogate Endpoints: 1990-2011.

PubMed

Bikdeli, Behnood; Punnanithinont, Natdanai; Akram, Yasir; Lee, Ike; Desai, Nihar R; Ross, Joseph S; Krumholz, Harlan M

2017-03-21

Surrogate endpoint trials test strategies more efficiently but are accompanied by uncertainty about the relationship between changes in surrogate markers and clinical outcomes. We identified cardiovascular trials with primary surrogate endpoints published in the New England Journal of Medicine , Lancet , and JAMA: Journal of the American Medical Association from 1990 to 2011 and determined the trends in publication of surrogate endpoint trials and the success of the trials in meeting their primary endpoints. We tracked for publication of clinical outcome trials on the interventions tested in surrogate trials. We screened 3016 articles and identified 220 surrogate endpoint trials. From the total of 220 surrogate trials, 157 (71.4%) were positive for their primary endpoint. Only 59 (26.8%) surrogate trials had a subsequent clinical outcomes trial. Among these 59 trials, 24 outcomes trial results validated the positive surrogates, whereas 20 subsequent outcome trials were negative following positive results on a surrogate. We identified only 3 examples in which the surrogate trial was negative but a subsequent outcomes trial was conducted and showed benefit. Findings were consistent in a sample cohort of 383 screened articles inclusive of 37 surrogate endpoint trials from 6 other high-impact journals. Although cardiovascular surrogate outcomes trials frequently show superiority of the tested intervention, they are infrequently followed by a prominent outcomes trial. When there was a high-profile clinical outcomes study, nearly half of the positive surrogate trials were not validated. Cardiovascular surrogate outcome trials may be more appropriate for excluding benefit from the patient perspective than for identifying it. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

False-negative rate, limit of detection and recovery efficiency performance of a validated macrofoam-swab sampling method for low surface concentrations of Bacillus anthracis Sterne and Bacillus atrophaeus spores

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Piepel, G. F.; Deatherage Kaiser, B. L.; Amidan, B. G.

The performance of a macrofoam-swab sampling method was evaluated using Bacillus anthracis Sterne (BAS) and Bacillus atrophaeus Nakamura (BG) spores applied at nine low target amounts (2-500 spores) to positive-control plates and test coupons (2 in × 2 in) of four surface materials (glass, stainless steel, vinyl tile, and plastic). Test results from cultured samples were used to evaluate the effects of surrogate, surface concentration, and surface material on recovery efficiency (RE), false negative rate (FNR), and limit of detection. For RE, surrogate and surface material had statistically significant effects, but concentration did not. Mean REs were the lowest formore » vinyl tile (50.8% with BAS and 40.2% with BG) and the highest for glass (92.8% with BAS and 71.4% with BG). FNR values ranged from 0 to 0.833 for BAS and 0 to 0.806 for BG; values increased as concentration decreased in the range tested (0.078 to 19.375 CFU/cm2). Surface material also had a statistically significant effect. A FNR-concentration curve was fit for each combination of surrogate and surface material. For both surrogates, the FNR curves tended to be the lowest for glass and highest for vinyl title. The FNR curves for BG tended to be higher than for BAS at lower concentrations, especially for glass. Results using a modified Rapid Viability-Polymerase Chain Reaction (mRV-PCR) analysis method were also obtained. The mRV-PCR results and comparisons to the culture results will be discussed in a subsequent article.« less

Trends in Advance Care Planning in Patients With Cancer: Results From a National Longitudinal Survey.

PubMed

Narang, Amol K; Wright, Alexi A; Nicholas, Lauren H

2015-08-01

Advance care planning (ACP) may prevent end-of-life (EOL) care that is nonbeneficial and discordant with patient wishes. Despite long-standing recognition of the merits of ACP in oncology, it is unclear whether participation in ACP by patients with cancer has increased over time. To characterize trends in durable power of attorney (DPOA) assignment, living will creation, and participation in discussions of EOL care preferences and to explore associations between ACP subtypes and EOL treatment intensity as reflected in EOL care decisions and terminal hospitalizations. We analyzed prospectively collected survey data from 1985 next-of-kin surrogates of Health and Retirement Study (HRS) participants with cancer who died between 2000 and 2012, including data from in-depth "exit" interviews conducted with the surrogates after the participant's death. The HRS is a nationally representative, biennial, longitudinal panel study of US residents older than 50 years. Trends in ACP subtypes were tested, and multivariable logistic regression models examined for associations between ACP subtypes and measures of treatment intensity. Trends in the surrogate-reported frequency of DPOA assignment, living will creation, and participation in discussions of EOL care preferences; associations between ACP subtypes and both surrogate-reported EOL care decisions and terminal hospitalizations. From 2000 to 2012, there was an increase in DPOA assignment (52% to 74%, P = .03), without significant change in use of living wills (49% to 40%, P = .63) or EOL discussions (68% to 60%, P = .62). Surrogate reports that patients received "all care possible" at EOL increased during the period (7% to 58%, P = .004), and rates of terminal hospitalizations were unchanged (29% to 27%, P = .70). Limiting or withholding treatment was associated with living wills (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 2.51; 95% CI, 1.53-4.11; P < .001) and EOL discussions (AOR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.53-3.14; P = .002) but not with DPOA assignment. Use of DPOA increased significantly between 2000 and 2012 but was not associated with EOL care decisions. Importantly, there was no growth in key ACP domains such as discussions of care preferences. Efforts that bolster communication of EOL care preferences and also incorporate surrogate decision makers are critically needed to ensure receipt of goal-concordant care.

Effect of Palliative Care–Led Meetings for Families of Patients With Chronic Critical Illness

PubMed Central

Carson, Shannon S.; Cox, Christopher E.; Wallenstein, Sylvan; Hanson, Laura C.; Danis, Marion; Tulsky, James A; Chai, Emily; Nelson, Judith E.

2016-01-01

IMPORTANCE Family caregivers of patients with chronic critical illness experience significant psychological distress. OBJECTIVE To determine whether family informational and emotional support meetings led by palliative care clinicians improve family anxiety and depression. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A multicenter randomized clinical trial conducted from October 2010 through November 2014 in 4 medical intensive care units (ICUs). Adult patients (aged ≥21 years) requiring 7 days of mechanical ventilation were randomized and their family surrogate decision makers were enrolled in the study. Observers were blinded to group allocation for the measurement of the primary outcomes. INTERVENTIONS At least 2 structured family meetings led by palliative care specialists and provision of an informational brochure (intervention) compared with provision of an informational brochure and routine family meetings conducted by ICU teams (control). There were 130 patients with 184 family surrogate decision makers in the intervention group and 126 patients with 181 family surrogate decision makers in the control group. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale symptom score (HADS; score range, 0 [best] to 42 [worst]; minimal clinically important difference, 1.5) obtained during 3-month follow-up interviews with the surrogate decision makers. Secondary outcomes included posttraumatic stress disorder experienced by the family and measured by the Impact of Events Scale-Revised (IES-R; total score range, 0 [best] to 88 [worst]), discussion of patient preferences, hospital length of stay, and 90-day survival. RESULTS Among 365 family surrogate decision makers (mean age, 51 years; 71% female), 312 completed the study. At 3 months, there was no significant difference in anxiety and depression symptoms between surrogate decision makers in the intervention group and the control group (adjusted mean HADS score, 12.2 vs 11.4, respectively; between-group difference, 0.8 [95% CI, −0.9 to 2.6]; P = .34). Posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms were higher in the intervention group (adjusted mean IES-R score, 25.9) compared with the control group (adjusted mean IES-R score, 21.3) (between-group difference, 4.60 [95% CI, 0.01 to 9.10]; P = .0495). There was no difference between groups regarding the discussion of patient preferences (intervention, 75% control, 83% odds ratio, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.34 to 1.16; P = .14]). The median number of hospital days for patients in the intervention vs the control group (19 days vs 23 days, respectively; between-group difference, −4 days [95% CI, −6 to 3 days]; P = .51) and 90-day survival (hazard ratio,0.95 [95% CI, 0.65 to 1.38], P = .96) were not significantly different. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Among families of patients with chronic critical illness, the use of palliative care–led informational and emotional support meetings compared with usual care did not reduce anxiety or depression symptoms and may have increased posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms. These findings do not support routine or mandatory palliative care–led discussion of goals of care for all families of patients with chronic critical illness. TRIAL REGISTRATION clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01230099 PMID:27380343

Incidence of Changes in Respiration-Induced Tumor Motion and Its Relationship With Respiratory Surrogates During Individual Treatment Fractions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Malinowski, Kathleen; Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD; McAvoy, Thomas J.

2012-04-01

Purpose: To determine how frequently (1) tumor motion and (2) the spatial relationship between tumor and respiratory surrogate markers change during a treatment fraction in lung and pancreas cancer patients. Methods and Materials: A Cyberknife Synchrony system radiographically localized the tumor and simultaneously tracked three respiratory surrogate markers fixed to a form-fitting vest. Data in 55 lung and 29 pancreas fractions were divided into successive 10-min blocks. Mean tumor positions and tumor position distributions were compared across 10-min blocks of data. Treatment margins were calculated from both 10 and 30 min of data. Partial least squares (PLS) regression models ofmore » tumor positions as a function of external surrogate marker positions were created from the first 10 min of data in each fraction; the incidence of significant PLS model degradation was used to assess changes in the spatial relationship between tumors and surrogate markers. Results: The absolute change in mean tumor position from first to third 10-min blocks was >5 mm in 13% and 7% of lung and pancreas cases, respectively. Superior-inferior and medial-lateral differences in mean tumor position were significantly associated with the lobe of lung. In 61% and 54% of lung and pancreas fractions, respectively, margins calculated from 30 min of data were larger than margins calculated from 10 min of data. The change in treatment margin magnitude for superior-inferior motion was >1 mm in 42% of lung and 45% of pancreas fractions. Significantly increasing tumor position prediction model error (mean {+-} standard deviation rates of change of 1.6 {+-} 2.5 mm per 10 min) over 30 min indicated tumor-surrogate relationship changes in 63% of fractions. Conclusions: Both tumor motion and the relationship between tumor and respiratory surrogate displacements change in most treatment fractions for patient in-room time of 30 min.« less

Integrating surrogate models into subsurface simulation framework allows computation of complex reactive transport scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Lucia, Marco; Kempka, Thomas; Jatnieks, Janis; Kühn, Michael

2017-04-01

Reactive transport simulations - where geochemical reactions are coupled with hydrodynamic transport of reactants - are extremely time consuming and suffer from significant numerical issues. Given the high uncertainties inherently associated with the geochemical models, which also constitute the major computational bottleneck, such requirements may seem inappropriate and probably constitute the main limitation for their wide application. A promising way to ease and speed-up such coupled simulations is achievable employing statistical surrogates instead of "full-physics" geochemical models [1]. Data-driven surrogates are reduced models obtained on a set of pre-calculated "full physics" simulations, capturing their principal features while being extremely fast to compute. Model reduction of course comes at price of a precision loss; however, this appears justified in presence of large uncertainties regarding the parametrization of geochemical processes. This contribution illustrates the integration of surrogates into the flexible simulation framework currently being developed by the authors' research group [2]. The high level language of choice for obtaining and dealing with surrogate models is R, which profits from state-of-the-art methods for statistical analysis of large simulations ensembles. A stand-alone advective mass transport module was furthermore developed in order to add such capability to any multiphase finite volume hydrodynamic simulator within the simulation framework. We present 2D and 3D case studies benchmarking the performance of surrogates and "full physics" chemistry in scenarios pertaining the assessment of geological subsurface utilization. [1] Jatnieks, J., De Lucia, M., Dransch, D., Sips, M.: "Data-driven surrogate model approach for improving the performance of reactive transport simulations.", Energy Procedia 97, 2016, p. 447-453. [2] Kempka, T., Nakaten, B., De Lucia, M., Nakaten, N., Otto, C., Pohl, M., Chabab [Tillner], E., Kühn, M.: "Flexible Simulation Framework to Couple Processes in Complex 3D Models for Subsurface Utilization Assessment.", Energy Procedia, 97, 2016 p. 494-501.

A surrogate analyte-based LC-MS/MS method for the determination of γ-hydroxybutyrate (GHB) in human urine and variation of endogenous urinary concentrations of GHB.

PubMed

Kang, Soyoung; Oh, Seung Min; Chung, Kyu Hyuck; Lee, Sooyeun

2014-09-01

γ-Hydroxybutyrate (GHB) is a drug of abuse with a strong anesthetic effect; however, proving its ingestion through the quantification of GHB in biological specimens is not straightforward due to the endogenous presence of GHB in human blood, urine, saliva, etc. In the present study, a surrogate analyte approach was applied to accurate quantitative determination of GHB in human urine using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) in order to overcome this issue. For this, (2)H6-GHB and (13)C2-dl-3-hydroxybutyrate were used as a surrogate standard and as an internal standard, respectively, and parallelism between the surrogate analyte approach and standard addition was investigated at the initial step. The validation results proved the method to be selective, accurate, and precise, with acceptable linearity within calibration ranges (0.1-1μg/ml). The limit of detection and the limit of quantification of (2)H6-GHB were 0.05 and 0.1μg/ml, respectively. No significant variations were observed among urine matrices from different sources. The stability of (2)H6-GHB was satisfactory under sample storage and in-process conditions. However, in vitro production of endogenous GHB was observed when the urine sample was kept under the in-process condition for 4h and under the storage conditions of 4 and -20°C. In order to facilitate the practical interpretation of urinary GHB, endogenous GHB was accurately measured in urine samples from 79 healthy volunteers using the surrogate analyte-based LC-MS/MS method developed in the present study. The unadjusted and creatinine-adjusted GHB concentrations in 74 urine samples with quantitative results ranged from 0.09 to 1.8μg/ml and from 4.5 to 530μg/mmol creatinine, respectively. No significant correlation was observed between the unadjusted and creatinine-adjusted GHB concentrations. The urinary endogenous GHB concentrations were affected by gender and age while they were not significantly influenced by habitual smoking, alcohol drinking, or caffeine-containing beverage drinking. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Overall Response Rate and Progression-Free Survival as Potential Surrogate Endpoints for Overall Survival in Immunotherapy Trials.

PubMed

Mushti, Sirisha L; Mulkey, Flora; Sridhara, Rajeshwari

2018-05-15

Purpose: With the approval of immunotherapies for a variety of indications, methods to assess treatment benefit addressing the response patterns observed are important. We evaluated RECIST criteria-based overall response rate (ORR) and progression-free survival (PFS) as potential surrogate endpoints of overall survival (OS), and explored a modified definition of PFS by altering the threshold percentage determining disease progression to assess the association with survival benefit in immunotherapy trials. Experimental Design: Thirteen randomized, multicenter, active-control trials containing immunotherapeutic agents submitted to the FDA were analyzed. Associations between treatment effects of ORR, PFS, modified PFS, and OS were evaluated at individual and trial levels. Patient-level responder analysis was performed for PFS and OS. Results: The coefficient of determination ( R ²) measured the strength of associations, where values near 1 imply surrogacy and values close to 0 suggest no association. At the trial level, the association between hazard ratios (HR) of PFS and OS was R 2 = 0.1303, and between the odds ratio (OR) of ORR and HR of OS was R 2 = 0.1277. At the individual level, the Spearman rank correlation coefficient between PFS and OS was 0.61. Trial-level associations between modified PFS and OS ranged between 0.07 and 0.1, and individual-level correlations were approximately 0.6. HRs of PFS and OS for responders versus nonresponders were 0.129 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.11-0.15] and 0.118 (95% CI, 0.11-0.13), respectively. Conclusions: Although responders exhibited longer survival and PFS than nonresponders, the trial-level and individual-level associations were weak between PFS/ORR and OS. Modifications to PFS did not improve associations. Clin Cancer Res; 24(10); 2268-75. ©2018 AACR See related commentary by Korn and Freidlin, p. 2239 . ©2018 American Association for Cancer Research.

Agreement in Body Fat Estimates between a Hand-Held Bioelectrical Impedance Analyzer and Skinfold Thicknesses in African American and Caucasian Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hannon, James C.; Ratliffe, Thomas; Williams, Daniel P.

2006-01-01

The body mass index (BMI), or the ratio of weight in kilograms to the square of height in meters, is widely used to determine the presence or absence of overweight and obesity in adults. Although many consider BMI an acceptable clinical surrogate of body fatness, it does not differentiate between fat and fat-free tissues. Thus, children and…

Autoignition Chemistry of Surrogate Fuel Components in an Engine Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-21

compression ratio (CR) on the auto - ignition of decane. Crank angle resolved cylinder pressure data was acquired and analyzed using an engine heat...schematic shown in Fig. 1, consists of a modified CFR (Cooperative Fuel Research) engine coupled to a dynamometer. In practical compression 2 ignition ...engines, auto - ignition occurs in the premixed spray envelope that forms during the fuel injection process. To focus on this regime without the

Thyroid Cancer Incidence around the Belgian Nuclear Sites, 2000–2014

PubMed Central

Demoury, Claire; De Smedt, Tom; De Schutter, Harlinde; Sonck, Michel; Van Damme, Nancy; Bollaerts, Kaatje; Van Bladel, Lodewijk; Van Nieuwenhuyse, An

2017-01-01

The present study investigates whether there is an excess incidence of thyroid cancer among people living in the vicinity of the nuclear sites in Belgium. Adjusted Rate Ratios were obtained from Poisson regressions for proximity areas of varying sizes. In addition, focused hypothesis tests and generalized additive models were performed to test the hypothesis of a gradient in thyroid cancer incidence with increasing levels of surrogate exposures. Residential proximity to the nuclear site, prevailing dominant winds frequency from the site, and simulated radioactive discharges were used as surrogate exposures. No excess incidence of thyroid cancer was observed around the nuclear power plants of Doel or Tihange. In contrast, increases in thyroid cancer incidence were found around the nuclear sites of Mol-Dessel and Fleurus; risk ratios were borderline not significant. For Mol-Dessel, there was evidence for a gradient in thyroid cancer incidence with increased proximity, prevailing winds, and simulated radioactive discharges. For Fleurus, a gradient was observed with increasing prevailing winds and, to a lesser extent, with increasing simulated radioactive discharges. This study strengthens earlier findings and suggests increased incidences in thyroid cancer around two of the four Belgian nuclear sites. Further analyses will be performed at a more detailed geographical level. PMID:28858225

Fluoroscopic tumor tracking for image-guided lung cancer radiotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Tong; Cerviño, Laura I.; Tang, Xiaoli; Vasconcelos, Nuno; Jiang, Steve B.

2009-02-01

Accurate lung tumor tracking in real time is a keystone to image-guided radiotherapy of lung cancers. Existing lung tumor tracking approaches can be roughly grouped into three categories: (1) deriving tumor position from external surrogates; (2) tracking implanted fiducial markers fluoroscopically or electromagnetically; (3) fluoroscopically tracking lung tumor without implanted fiducial markers. The first approach suffers from insufficient accuracy, while the second may not be widely accepted due to the risk of pneumothorax. Previous studies in fluoroscopic markerless tracking are mainly based on template matching methods, which may fail when the tumor boundary is unclear in fluoroscopic images. In this paper we propose a novel markerless tumor tracking algorithm, which employs the correlation between the tumor position and surrogate anatomic features in the image. The positions of the surrogate features are not directly tracked; instead, we use principal component analysis of regions of interest containing them to obtain parametric representations of their motion patterns. Then, the tumor position can be predicted from the parametric representations of surrogates through regression. Four regression methods were tested in this study: linear and two-degree polynomial regression, artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). The experimental results based on fluoroscopic sequences of ten lung cancer patients demonstrate a mean tracking error of 2.1 pixels and a maximum error at a 95% confidence level of 4.6 pixels (pixel size is about 0.5 mm) for the proposed tracking algorithm.

Improved method for quantifying the avicide 3-chloro-p-toluidine hydrochloride in bird tissues using a deuterated surrogate/GC/MS method.

PubMed

Stahl, Randal S; Custer, Thomas W; Pochop, Patricia A; Johnston, John J

2002-02-13

A method using a deuterated surrogate of the avicide 3-chloro-p-toluidine hydrochloride (CPTH) was developed to quantify the CPTH residues in the gastrointestinal (GI) tract and breast muscle tissues in birds collected in CPTH-baited sunflower and rice fields. This method increased the range of a previous surrogate/gas chromatography/mass spectroscopy method from 0-2 to 0-20 microg/g in tissue samples and greatly simplified the extraction procedure. The modified method also sought to increase recoveries over a range of matrix effects introduced by analyzing tissues from birds collected in the field, where the GI tract contents would be affected by varying diet. The new method was used to determine the CPTH concentration in GI tract samples fortified with CPTH-treated rice bait to simulate the consumption of varying amounts of treated bait by two nontargeted bird species, pigeon (Columbia livia) and house sparrow (Passer domesticus). The new method was then used to examine the CPTH concentrations in the gizzard contents of the targeted bird species, red-winged black bird (Agelaius phoeniceus) and brown-headed cowbird (Molothrus ater), that were collected after feeding at a treated bait site. The method proved sufficiently sensitive to quantify CPTH in the breast muscle tissues and the gizzard contents of red-winged blackbirds and brown-headed cowbirds during an operational baiting program. The levels of CPTH determined for these birds in both tissue samples were determined to be highly correlated. The appearance of CPTH in the breast muscle tissue immediately after feeding was not anticipated. The potential secondary hazard posed by the targeted birds to potential scavengers and predators was also evaluated.

Improved method for quantifying the avicide 3-chloro-p-toluidine hydrochloride in bird tissues using a deuterated surrogate/GC/MS method

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stahl, R.S.; Custer, T.W.; Pochop, P.A.; Johnston, J.J.

2002-01-01

A method using a deuterated surrogate of the avicide 3-chloro-p-toluidine hydrochloride (CPTH) was developed to quantify the CPTH residues in the gastrointestinal (Gl) tract and breast muscle tissues in birds collected in CPTH-baited sunflower and rice fields. This method increased the range of a previous surrogate/gas chromatography/mass spectroscopy method from 0-2 to 0-20mug/g in tissue samples and greatly simplified the extraction procedure. The modified method also sought to increase recoveries over a range of matrix effects introduced by analyzing tissues from birds collected in the field, where the GI tract contents would be affected by varying diet. The new method was used to determine the CPTH concentration In GI tract samples fortified with CPTH-treated rice bait to simulate the consumption of varying amounts of treated bait by two nontargeted bird species, pigeon (Columbia livia) and house sparrow (Passer domesticus). The new method was then used to examine the CPTH concentrations in the gizzard contents of the targeted bird species, red-winged black bird (Agelaius phoeniceus) and brown-headed cowbird (Molothrus ater) that were collected after feeding at a treated bait site. The method proved sufficiently sensitive to quantify CPTH in the breast muscle tissues and the gizzard contents of red-winged blackbirds and brown-headed cowbirds during an operational baiting program. The levels of CPTH determined for these birds in both tissue samples were determined to be highly correlated. The appearance of CPTH in the breast muscle tissue immediately after feeding was not anticipated. The potential secondary hazard posed by the targeted birds to potential scavengers and predators was also evaluated.

Egg donation, surrogate mothering, and cloning: attitudes of men and women in Germany based on a representative survey.

PubMed

Stöbel-Richter, Yve; Goldschmidt, Susanne; Brähler, Elmar; Weidner, Kerstin; Beutel, Manfred

2009-07-01

To determine opinions and attitudes of the German general population toward the treatment methods of reproductive medicine: egg donation, surrogate mothering, and reproductive cloning. Representative survey. German general population: face-to-face interviews at home with 2,110 persons, aged 18-50 years. Patients were not included. No interventions took place. Approval and disapproval of treatment methods of reproductive medicine and preimplantation genetic diagnosis were assessed by questionnaires regarding medical, age, reasons, or general. Overall, the diverse treatment methods of reproductive medicine found comparable rates of approval and disapproval. Legalization of egg donation was approved by a slight majority (50.8%), particularly for medical reasons (35.9%). Surrogate mothering found lower overall rates of approval (43.7%), 28.5% supported an admission for medical reasons. Reproductive cloning was rejected by the vast majority (82.9%). Attitudes to reproductive medicine were affected by age and the individual reproductive experiences. New techniques in reproductive medicine and their development provide hope and health promises for affected couples but also entail long-term risks and ethical issues. Balancing the individual's right to a reproductive autonomy and choice and ethical standards will constitute a future challenge for society. Results demonstrate considerable uncertainty and information deficits in the community.

Prediction of survival benefits from progression-free survival benefits in advanced non-small-cell lung cancer: evidence from a meta-analysis of 2334 patients from 5 randomised trials

PubMed Central

Laporte, Silvy; Squifflet, Pierre; Baroux, Noémie; Fossella, Frank; Georgoulias, Vassilis; Pujol, Jean-Louis; Douillard, Jean-Yves; Kudoh, Shinzohy; Pignon, Jean-Pierre; Quinaux, Emmanuel; Buyse, Marc

2013-01-01

Objectives To investigate whether progression-free survival (PFS) can be considered a surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Design Meta-analysis of individual patient data from randomised trials. Setting Five randomised controlled trials comparing docetaxel-based chemotherapy with vinorelbine-based chemotherapy for the first-line treatment of NSCLC. Participants 2331 patients with advanced NSCLC. Primary and secondary outcome measures Surrogacy of PFS for OS was assessed through the association between these endpoints and between the treatment effects on these endpoints. The surrogate threshold effect was the minimum treatment effect on PFS required to predict a non-zero treatment effect on OS. Results The median follow-up of patients still alive was 23.4 months. Median OS was 10 months and median PFS was 5.5 months. The treatment effects on PFS and OS were correlated, whether using centres (R²=0.62, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.72) or prognostic strata (R²=0.72, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.84) as units of analysis. The surrogate threshold effect was a PFS hazard ratio (HR) of 0.49 using centres or 0.53 using prognostic strata. Conclusions These analyses provide only modest support for considering PFS as an acceptable surrogate for OS in patients with advanced NSCLC. Only treatments that have a major impact on PFS (risk reduction of at least 50%) would be expected to also have a significant effect on OS. Whether these results also apply to targeted therapies is an open question that requires independent evaluation. PMID:23485717

4D CT sorting based on patient internal anatomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ruijiang; Lewis, John H.; Cerviño, Laura I.; Jiang, Steve B.

2009-08-01

Respiratory motion during free-breathing computed tomography (CT) scan may cause significant errors in target definition for tumors in the thorax and upper abdomen. A four-dimensional (4D) CT technique has been widely used for treatment simulation of thoracic and abdominal cancer radiotherapy. The current 4D CT techniques require retrospective sorting of the reconstructed CT slices oversampled at the same couch position. Most sorting methods depend on external surrogates of respiratory motion recorded by extra instruments. However, respiratory signals obtained from these external surrogates may not always accurately represent the internal target motion, especially when irregular breathing patterns occur. We have proposed a new sorting method based on multiple internal anatomical features for multi-slice CT scan acquired in the cine mode. Four features are analyzed in this study, including the air content, lung area, lung density and body area. We use a measure called spatial coherence to select the optimal internal feature at each couch position and to generate the respiratory signals for 4D CT sorting. The proposed method has been evaluated for ten cancer patients (eight with thoracic cancer and two with abdominal cancer). For nine patients, the respiratory signals generated from the combined internal features are well correlated to those from external surrogates recorded by the real-time position management (RPM) system (average correlation: 0.95 ± 0.02), which is better than any individual internal measures at 95% confidence level. For these nine patients, the 4D CT images sorted by the combined internal features are almost identical to those sorted by the RPM signal. For one patient with an irregular breathing pattern, the respiratory signals given by the combined internal features do not correlate well with those from RPM (correlation: 0.68 ± 0.42). In this case, the 4D CT image sorted by our method presents fewer artifacts than that from the RPM signal. Our 4D CT internal sorting method eliminates the need of externally recorded surrogates of respiratory motion. It is an automatic, accurate, robust, cost efficient and yet simple method and therefore can be readily implemented in clinical settings.

Co-Optimization of CO 2-EOR and Storage Processes in Mature Oil Reservoirs

DOE PAGES

Ampomah, William; Balch, Robert S.; Grigg, Reid B.; ...

2016-08-02

This article presents an optimization methodology for CO 2 enhanced oil recovery in partially depleted reservoirs. A field-scale compositional reservoir flow model was developed for assessing the performance history of an active CO 2 flood and for optimizing both oil production and CO 2 storage in the Farnsworth Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas. A geological framework model constructed from geophysical, geological, and engineering data acquired from the FWU was the basis for all reservoir simulations and the optimization method. An equation of state was calibrated with laboratory fluid analyses and subsequently used to predict the thermodynamic minimum miscible pressure (MMP).more » Initial history calibrations of primary, secondary and tertiary recovery were conducted as the basis for the study. After a good match was achieved, an optimization approach consisting of a proxy or surrogate model was constructed with a polynomial response surface method (PRSM). The PRSM utilized an objective function that maximized both oil recovery and CO 2 storage. Experimental design was used to link uncertain parameters to the objective function. Control variables considered in this study included: water alternating gas cycle and ratio, production rates and bottom-hole pressure of injectors and producers. Other key parameters considered in the modeling process were CO 2 purchase, gas recycle and addition of infill wells and/or patterns. The PRSM proxy model was ‘trained’ or calibrated with a series of training simulations. This involved an iterative process until the surrogate model reached a specific validation criterion. A sensitivity analysis was first conducted to ascertain which of these control variables to retain in the surrogate model. A genetic algorithm with a mixed-integer capability optimization approach was employed to determine the optimum developmental strategy to maximize both oil recovery and CO 2 storage. The proxy model reduced the computational cost significantly. The validation criteria of the reduced order model ensured accuracy in the dynamic modeling results. The prediction outcome suggested robustness and reliability of the genetic algorithm for optimizing both oil recovery and CO 2 storage. The reservoir modeling approach used in this study illustrates an improved approach to optimizing oil production and CO 2 storage within partially depleted oil reservoirs such as FWU. Lastly, this study may serve as a benchmark for potential CO 2–EOR projects in the Anadarko basin and/or geologically similar basins throughout the world.« less

Co-Optimization of CO 2-EOR and Storage Processes in Mature Oil Reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ampomah, William; Balch, Robert S.; Grigg, Reid B.

This article presents an optimization methodology for CO 2 enhanced oil recovery in partially depleted reservoirs. A field-scale compositional reservoir flow model was developed for assessing the performance history of an active CO 2 flood and for optimizing both oil production and CO 2 storage in the Farnsworth Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas. A geological framework model constructed from geophysical, geological, and engineering data acquired from the FWU was the basis for all reservoir simulations and the optimization method. An equation of state was calibrated with laboratory fluid analyses and subsequently used to predict the thermodynamic minimum miscible pressure (MMP).more » Initial history calibrations of primary, secondary and tertiary recovery were conducted as the basis for the study. After a good match was achieved, an optimization approach consisting of a proxy or surrogate model was constructed with a polynomial response surface method (PRSM). The PRSM utilized an objective function that maximized both oil recovery and CO 2 storage. Experimental design was used to link uncertain parameters to the objective function. Control variables considered in this study included: water alternating gas cycle and ratio, production rates and bottom-hole pressure of injectors and producers. Other key parameters considered in the modeling process were CO 2 purchase, gas recycle and addition of infill wells and/or patterns. The PRSM proxy model was ‘trained’ or calibrated with a series of training simulations. This involved an iterative process until the surrogate model reached a specific validation criterion. A sensitivity analysis was first conducted to ascertain which of these control variables to retain in the surrogate model. A genetic algorithm with a mixed-integer capability optimization approach was employed to determine the optimum developmental strategy to maximize both oil recovery and CO 2 storage. The proxy model reduced the computational cost significantly. The validation criteria of the reduced order model ensured accuracy in the dynamic modeling results. The prediction outcome suggested robustness and reliability of the genetic algorithm for optimizing both oil recovery and CO 2 storage. The reservoir modeling approach used in this study illustrates an improved approach to optimizing oil production and CO 2 storage within partially depleted oil reservoirs such as FWU. Lastly, this study may serve as a benchmark for potential CO 2–EOR projects in the Anadarko basin and/or geologically similar basins throughout the world.« less

CTEPP-OH DATA QA/QC RESULTS

EPA Science Inventory

This data set contains the method performance results for CTEPP-OH. This includes field blanks, method blanks, duplicate samples, analytical duplicates, matrix spikes, and surrogate recovery standards.

The Children’s Total Exposure to Persistent Pesticides and Other Persisten...

Creation of a retrospective job-exposure matrix using surrogate measures of exposure for a cohort of US career firefighters from San Francisco, Chicago and Philadelphia

PubMed Central

Dahm, Matthew M; Bertke, Stephen; Allee, Steve; Daniels, Robert D

2015-01-01

Objectives To construct a cohort-specific job-exposure matrix (JEM) using surrogate metrics of exposure for a cancer study on career firefighters from the Chicago, Philadelphia and San Francisco Fire Departments. Methods Departmental work history records, along with data on historical annual fire-runs and hours, were collected from 1950 to 2009 and coded into separate databases. These data were used to create a JEM based on standardised job titles and fire apparatus assignments using several surrogate exposure metrics to estimate firefighters’ exposure to the combustion byproducts of fire. The metrics included duration of exposure (cumulative time with a standardised exposed job title and assignment), fire-runs (cumulative events of potential fire exposure) and time at fire (cumulative hours of potential fire exposure). Results The JEM consisted of 2298 unique job titles alongside 16 174 fire apparatus assignments from the three departments, which were collapsed into 15 standardised job titles and 15 standardised job assignments. Correlations were found between fire-runs and time at fires (Pearson coefficient=0.92), duration of exposure and time at fires (Pearson coefficient=0.85), and duration of exposure and fire-runs (Pearson coefficient=0.82). Total misclassification rates were found to be between 16–30% when using duration of employment as an exposure surrogate, which has been traditionally used in most epidemiological studies, compared with using the duration of exposure surrogate metric. Conclusions The constructed JEM successfully differentiated firefighters based on gradient levels of potential exposure to the combustion byproducts of fire using multiple surrogate exposure metrics. PMID:26163543

Deliberative Assessment of Surrogate Consent in Dementia Research

PubMed Central

Kim, Scott Y. H.; Uhlmann, Rebecca A.; Appelbaum, Paul S.; Knopman, David S.; Kim, H. Myra; Damschroder, Laura; Beattie, Elizabeth; Struble, Laura; De Vries, Raymond

2009-01-01

Background Research involving incapacitated persons with dementia involves complex scientific, legal, and ethical issues, making traditional surveys of layperson views regarding the ethics of such research challenging. We therefore assessed the impact of democratic deliberation (DD)—involving balanced, detailed education and peer deliberation—on the views of those responsible for persons with dementia. Methods 178 community-recruited caregivers or primary decision-makers for persons with dementia were randomly assigned to either an all-day DD session group or a control group. Educational materials used for the DD session were vetted for balance and accuracy by an interdisciplinary advisory panel. We assessed the acceptability of family surrogate consent for dementia research (‘surrogate-based research’ or SBR) from a societal policy perspective as well as from the more personal perspectives of deciding for a loved one or for oneself (surrogate and self perspectives), assessed at baseline, immediately post-DD session, and a month after DD date, for 4 research scenarios of varying risk-benefit profiles. Results At baseline, a majority in both DD and control groups supported a policy of family consent for dementia research for all research scenarios. The support for a policy of family consent for SBR increased for the DD group, but not for the control group; the change in the DD group was maintained one month later. In the DD group, there were transient changes in attitudes from surrogate or self perspectives; in the control group, there were no changes from baseline in attitude toward surrogate consent from any perspective. Conclusions Intensive, balanced, and accurate education along with peer deliberation provided by democratic deliberation leads to a sustained increase in support for a societal policy of family consent for dementia research among those responsible for dementia patients. PMID:20188635

Surrogate mother - praiseworthy or stigmatized: a qualitative study on perceptions of surrogacy in Assam, India.

PubMed

Arvidsson, Anna; Vauquline, Polly; Johnsdotter, Sara; Essén, Birgitta

2017-01-01

Surrogacy is a reproductive practice that has been strongly marketed in India as a solution for childless couples. As a result, the number of surrogacy clinics is increasing. Meanwhile, a global discourse on surrogacy, originating from a Western perspective, has characterized surrogacy as being exploitative of women in low-income settings, where poverty drives them to become surrogate mothers. This study explored perspectives on surrogacy from men and women in Assam, an Indian state known to be a low-income setting. Surrogacy arrangements in Assam are still uncommon. It can be expected that the dominant global discourses on surrogacy will be unfamiliar to the general population, and the objective was also to position the results within the divergent global discourses of surrogacy.  In order to explore local views on surrogacy, we conducted individual interviews and focus group discussions with people from various socioeconomic groups in Assam. Our findings reveal that people in Assam perceive surrogacy as a good option for a childless couple, as it would result in a child who is a 'blood' relation - something highly desirable for sociocultural reasons. However, the part played by the surrogate mother complicates local views on surrogacy. Most people consider payment to the surrogate mother contrary to societal norms. A surrogate mother is also often judged in a moral light, either as a 'bad mother' for selling her child, or as a 'noble woman' who has helped a childless couple and deserves payment for her services. In order to decrease the stigmatization of women, a regulatory policy is needed that will take into account the complex understandings of surrogacy and perceptions of surrogate mothers in Indian society. In policy, the possible effect of the dominant exploitation discourse needs to be modulated by local understandings of this reproduction method.

Mitigating Errors in External Respiratory Surrogate-Based Models of Tumor Position

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Malinowski, Kathleen T.; Fischell Department of Bioengineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; McAvoy, Thomas J.

2012-04-01

Purpose: To investigate the effect of tumor site, measurement precision, tumor-surrogate correlation, training data selection, model design, and interpatient and interfraction variations on the accuracy of external marker-based models of tumor position. Methods and Materials: Cyberknife Synchrony system log files comprising synchronously acquired positions of external markers and the tumor from 167 treatment fractions were analyzed. The accuracy of Synchrony, ordinary-least-squares regression, and partial-least-squares regression models for predicting the tumor position from the external markers was evaluated. The quantity and timing of the data used to build the predictive model were varied. The effects of tumor-surrogate correlation and the precisionmore » in both the tumor and the external surrogate position measurements were explored by adding noise to the data. Results: The tumor position prediction errors increased during the duration of a fraction. Increasing the training data quantities did not always lead to more accurate models. Adding uncorrelated noise to the external marker-based inputs degraded the tumor-surrogate correlation models by 16% for partial-least-squares and 57% for ordinary-least-squares. External marker and tumor position measurement errors led to tumor position prediction changes 0.3-3.6 times the magnitude of the measurement errors, varying widely with model algorithm. The tumor position prediction errors were significantly associated with the patient index but not with the fraction index or tumor site. Partial-least-squares was as accurate as Synchrony and more accurate than ordinary-least-squares. Conclusions: The accuracy of surrogate-based inferential models of tumor position was affected by all the investigated factors, except for the tumor site and fraction index.« less

Evaluation of Escherichia coli biotype 1 as a surrogate for Escherichia coli O157:H7 for cooking, fermentation, freezing, and refrigerated storage in meat processes.

PubMed

Keeling, Carisa; Niebuhr, Steven E; Acuff, Gary R; Dickson, James S

2009-04-01

Five Escherichia coli biotype I isolates were compared with E. coli O157:H7 under four common meat processing conditions. The processes that were evaluated were freezing, refrigerating, fermentation, and thermal inactivation. For each study, at least one surrogate organism was not statistically different when compared with E. coli O157:H7. However, the four studies did not consistently show the same isolate as having this agreement. The three studies that involved temperature as a method of controlling or reducing the E. coli population all had at least one possible surrogate in common. In the fermentation study, only one isolate (BAA-1429) showed no statistical difference when compared with E. coli O157:H7. However, the population reductions that were observed indicated the isolates BAA-1427 and BAA-1431 would overestimate the surviving E. coli O157:H7 population in a fermented summer sausage. When all of the data from all of the surrogates were examined, it was found that isolates BAA-1427, BAA-1429, and BAA-1430 would be good surrogates for all four of the processes that were examined in this study. There was no statistical difference noted between these three isolates and E. coli O157:H7 in the refrigeration study. These isolates resulted in smaller population reductions than did E. coli O157:H7 in the frozen, fermentation, and thermal inactivation studies. This would indicate that these isolates would overpredict the E. coli O157:H7 population in these three instances. This overprediction results in an additional margin of safety when using E. coli biotype 1 as a surrogate.

A reduced mechanism for biodiesel surrogates with low temperature chemistry for compression ignition engine applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Zhaoyu; Plomer, Max; Lu, Tianfeng; Som, Sibendu; Longman, Douglas E.

2012-04-01

Biodiesel is a promising alternative fuel for compression ignition (CI) engines. It is a renewable energy source that can be used in these engines without significant alteration in design. The detailed chemical kinetics of biodiesel is however highly complex. In the present study, a skeletal mechanism with 123 species and 394 reactions for a tri-component biodiesel surrogate, which consists of methyl decanoate, methyl 9-decanoate and n-heptane was developed for simulations of 3-D turbulent spray combustion under engine-like conditions. The reduction was based on an improved directed relation graph (DRG) method that is particularly suitable for mechanisms with many isomers, followed by isomer lumping and DRG-aided sensitivity analysis (DRGASA). The reduction was performed for pressures from 1 to 100 atm and equivalence ratios from 0.5 to 2 for both extinction and ignition applications. The initial temperatures for ignition were from 700 to 1800 K. The wide parameter range ensures the applicability of the skeletal mechanism under engine-like conditions. As such the skeletal mechanism is applicable for ignition at both low and high temperatures. Compared with the detailed mechanism that consists of 3299 species and 10806 reactions, the skeletal mechanism features a significant reduction in size while still retaining good accuracy and comprehensiveness. The validations of ignition delay time, flame lift-off length and important species profiles were also performed in 3-D engine simulations and compared with the experimental data from Sandia National Laboratories under CI engine conditions.

A Main Sequence For Quasars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marziani, Paola; Sulentic, J. W.; Dultzin, D.; Negrete, A.; del Olmo, A.; Martínez-Carballo, M. A.; Stirpe, G. M.; D'Onofrio, M.; Perea, J.

2016-10-01

The 4D eigenvector 1 parameter space defined by Sulentic et al. may be seen as a surrogate H-R diagram for quasars. As in the stellar H-R diagram, a source sequence can be easily identified. In the case of quasars, the main sequence appears to be mainly driven by Eddington ratio. A transition Eddington ratio may in part explain the striking observational differences between quasars at opposite ends of the main sequence. The eigenvector-1 approach opens the door towards properly contextualized models of quasar physics, geometry and kinematics. We review some of the progress that has been made over the past 15 years, and point out still unsolved issues.

Surviving Surrogate Decision-Making: What Helps and Hampers the Experience of Making Medical Decisions for Others

PubMed Central

Starks, Helene; Taylor, Janelle S.; Hopley, Elizabeth K.; Fryer-Edwards, Kelly

2007-01-01

BACKGROUND A majority of end-of-life medical decisions are made by surrogate decision-makers who have varying degrees of preparation and comfort with their role. Having a seriously ill family member is stressful for surrogates. Moreover, most clinicians have had little training in working effectively with surrogates. OBJECTIVES To better understand the challenges of decision-making from the surrogate’s perspective. DESIGN Semistructured telephone interview study of the experience of surrogate decision-making. PARTICIPANTS Fifty designated surrogates with previous decision-making experience. APPROACH We asked surrogates to describe and reflect on their experience of making medical decisions for others. After coding transcripts, we conducted a content analysis to identify and categorize factors that made decision-making more or less difficult for surrogates. RESULTS Surrogates identified four types of factors: (1) surrogate characteristics and life circumstances (such as coping strategies and competing responsibilities), (2) surrogates’ social networks (such as intrafamily discord about the “right” decision), (3) surrogate–patient relationships and communication (such as difficulties with honoring known preferences), and (4) surrogate–clinician communication and relationship (such as interacting with a single physician whom the surrogate recognizes as the clinical spokesperson vs. many clinicians). CONCLUSIONS These data provide insights into the challenges that surrogates encounter when making decisions for loved ones and indicate areas where clinicians could intervene to facilitate the process of surrogate decision-making. Clinicians may want to include surrogates in advance care planning prior to decision-making, identify and address surrogate stressors during decision-making, and designate one person to communicate information about the patient’s condition, prognosis, and treatment options. PMID:17619223

SU-E-QI-15: Single Point Dosimetry by Means of Cerenkov Radiation Energy Transfer (CRET)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Volotskova, O; Jenkins, C; Xing, L

2014-06-15

Purpose: Cerenkov light is generated when a charged particles with energy greater then 250 keV, moves faster than the speed of light in a given medium. Both x-ray photons and electrons produce optical Cerenkov photons during the static megavoltage linear accelerator (LINAC) operational mode. Recently, Cerenkov radiation gained considerable interest as possible candidate as a new imaging modality. Optical signals generated by Cerenkov radiation may act as a surrogate for the absorbed superficial radiation dose. We demonstrated a novel single point dosimetry method for megavoltage photon and electron therapy utilizing down conversion of Cerenkov photons. Methods: The custom build signalmore » characterization system was used: a sample holder (probe) with adjacent light tight compartments was connected via fiber-optic cables to a photon counting photomultiplier tube (PMT). One compartment contains a medium only while the other contains medium and red-shifting nano-particles (Q-dots, nanoclusters). By taking the difference between the two signals (Cerenkov photons and CRET photons) we obtain a measure of the down-converted light, which we expect to be proportional to dose as measured with an adjacent ion chamber. Experimental results are compared to Monte Carlo simulations performed using the GEANT4 code. Results: The signal correlation between CR signal, CRET readings and dose produced by LINAC at a single point were investigated. The experimental results were compared with simulations. The dose linearity, signal to noise ratio and dose rate dependence were tested with custom build CRET based probe. Conclusion: Performance characteristics of the proposed single point CRET based probe were evaluated. The direct use of the induced Cerenkov emission and CRET in an irradiated single point volume as an indirect surrogate for the imparted dose was investigated. We conclude that CRET is a promising optical based dosimetry method that offers advantages over those already proposed.« less

The intermediate endpoint effect in logistic and probit regression

PubMed Central

MacKinnon, DP; Lockwood, CM; Brown, CH; Wang, W; Hoffman, JM

2010-01-01

Background An intermediate endpoint is hypothesized to be in the middle of the causal sequence relating an independent variable to a dependent variable. The intermediate variable is also called a surrogate or mediating variable and the corresponding effect is called the mediated, surrogate endpoint, or intermediate endpoint effect. Clinical studies are often designed to change an intermediate or surrogate endpoint and through this intermediate change influence the ultimate endpoint. In many intermediate endpoint clinical studies the dependent variable is binary, and logistic or probit regression is used. Purpose The purpose of this study is to describe a limitation of a widely used approach to assessing intermediate endpoint effects and to propose an alternative method, based on products of coefficients, that yields more accurate results. Methods The intermediate endpoint model for a binary outcome is described for a true binary outcome and for a dichotomization of a latent continuous outcome. Plots of true values and a simulation study are used to evaluate the different methods. Results Distorted estimates of the intermediate endpoint effect and incorrect conclusions can result from the application of widely used methods to assess the intermediate endpoint effect. The same problem occurs for the proportion of an effect explained by an intermediate endpoint, which has been suggested as a useful measure for identifying intermediate endpoints. A solution to this problem is given based on the relationship between latent variable modeling and logistic or probit regression. Limitations More complicated intermediate variable models are not addressed in the study, although the methods described in the article can be extended to these more complicated models. Conclusions Researchers are encouraged to use an intermediate endpoint method based on the product of regression coefficients. A common method based on difference in coefficient methods can lead to distorted conclusions regarding the intermediate effect. PMID:17942466

Prevalence of sarcopenia in elderly maintenance hemodialysis patients: the impact of different diagnostic criteria.

PubMed

Lamarca, F; Carrero, J J; Rodrigues, J C D; Bigogno, F G; Fetter, R L; Avesani, C M

2014-07-01

The prevalence of sarcopenia on elderly maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) has been scarcely investigated. To investigate the prevalence of decreased muscle mass and strength alone or combined (true sarcopenia) in elderly patients on MHD according to different methods and cutoff limits. Additionally, we evaluated the agreement between dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and surrogate methods for the assessment of muscle mass. Observational and cross-sectional study. Non-institutionalized 102 elderly (age > 60 years) patients on MHD. Sarcopenia was considered when the patient fit one criteria for low muscle mass assessed by DXA, bioelectrical impedance (BIA), sum of skinfold thicknesses (SKF), calf circumference and mid-arm muscle circumference (MAMC) and one for low muscle strength evaluated by handgrip dynamometer. Decreased muscle strength was found in 85% of the patients. The prevalence of decreased muscle mass varied from 4 to 73.5% and of sarcopenia (decreased muscle mass and strength combined) from 4 to 63%, depending on the method and cutoff limit applied. A small percentage of patients (2 to 15%) were classified as sarcopenic by more than one diagnostic criteria. The agreement between DXA and the surrogate methods to assess muscle mass showed better kappa coefficients with BIA (r=0.36; P<0.01) and SKF (r=0.40; P<0.01). A wide prevalence of sarcopenia is observed depending on the method and cutoff limit applied. This may limit extrapolate on to clinical practice. BIA and SKF were the surrogate methods to assess muscle mass with the best concordance with DXA in elderly MHD patients.

Skeletal Mechanism Generation of Surrogate Jet Fuels for Aeropropulsion Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sung, Chih-Jen; Niemeyer, Kyle E.

2010-05-01

A novel implementation for the skeletal reduction of large detailed reaction mechanisms using the directed relation graph with error propagation and sensitivity analysis (DRGEPSA) is developed and presented with skeletal reductions of two important hydrocarbon components, n-heptane and n-decane, relevant to surrogate jet fuel development. DRGEPSA integrates two previously developed methods, directed relation graph-aided sensitivity analysis (DRGASA) and directed relation graph with error propagation (DRGEP), by first applying DRGEP to efficiently remove many unimportant species prior to sensitivity analysis to further remove unimportant species, producing an optimally small skeletal mechanism for a given error limit. It is illustrated that the combination of the DRGEP and DRGASA methods allows the DRGEPSA approach to overcome the weaknesses of each previous method, specifically that DRGEP cannot identify all unimportant species and that DRGASA shields unimportant species from removal.

Development of an Analytical Method for Dibutyl Phthalate Determination Using Surrogate Analyte Approach

PubMed Central

Farzanehfar, Vahid; Faizi, Mehrdad; Naderi, Nima; Kobarfard, Farzad

2017-01-01

Dibutyl phthalate (DBP) is a phthalic acid ester and is widely used in polymeric products to make them more flexible. DBP is found in almost every plastic material and is believed to be persistent in the environment. Various analytical methods have been used to measure DBP in different matrices. Considering the ubiquitous nature of DBP, the most important challenge in DBP analyses is the contamination of even analytical grade organic solvents with this compound and lack of availability of a true blank matrix to construct the calibration line. Standard addition method or using artificial matrices reduce the precision and accuracy of the results. In this study a surrogate analyte approach that is based on using deuterium labeled analyte (DBP-d4) to construct the calibration line was applied to determine DBP in hexane samples. PMID:28496469

Challenges for mapping cyanotoxin patterns from remote sensing of cyanobacteria

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stumpf, Rick P; Davis, Timothy W.; Wynne, Timothy T.; Graham, Jennifer L.; Loftin, Keith A.; Johengen, T.H.; Gossiaux, D.; Palladino, D.; Burtner, A.

2016-01-01

Using satellite imagery to quantify the spatial patterns of cyanobacterial toxins has several challenges. These challenges include the need for surrogate pigments – since cyanotoxins cannot be directly detected by remote sensing, the variability in the relationship between the pigments and cyanotoxins – especially microcystins (MC), and the lack of standardization of the various measurement methods. A dual-model strategy can provide an approach to address these challenges. One model uses either chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) or phycocyanin (PC) collected in situ as a surrogate to estimate the MC concentration. The other uses a remote sensing algorithm to estimate the concentration of the surrogate pigment. Where blooms are mixtures of cyanobacteria and eukaryotic algae, PC should be the preferred surrogate to Chl-a. Where cyanobacteria dominate, Chl-a is a better surrogate than PC for remote sensing. Phycocyanin is less sensitive to detection by optical remote sensing, it is less frequently measured, PC laboratory methods are still not standardized, and PC has greater intracellular variability. Either pigment should not be presumed to have a fixed relationship with MC for any water body. The MC-pigment relationship can be valid over weeks, but have considerable intra- and inter-annual variability due to changes in the amount of MC produced relative to cyanobacterial biomass. To detect pigments by satellite, three classes of algorithms (analytic, semi-analytic, and derivative) have been used. Analytical and semi-analytical algorithms are more sensitive but less robust than derivatives because they depend on accurate atmospheric correction; as a result derivatives are more commonly used. Derivatives can estimate Chl-a concentration, and research suggests they can detect and possibly quantify PC. Derivative algorithms, however, need to be standardized in order to evaluate the reproducibility of parameterizations between lakes. A strategy for producing useful estimates of microcystins from cyanobacterial biomass is described, provided cyanotoxin variability is addressed.

Assessing Exposure to Household Air Pollution: A Systematic Review and Pooled Analysis of Carbon Monoxide as a Surrogate Measure of Particulate Matter

PubMed Central

Carter, Ellison; Norris, Christina; Dionisio, Kathie L.; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Checkley, William; Clark, Maggie L.; Ghosh, Santu; Jack, Darby W.; Kinney, Patrick L.; Marshall, Julian D.; Naeher, Luke P.; Peel, Jennifer L.; Sambandam, Sankar; Schauer, James J.; Smith, Kirk R.; Wylie, Blair J.

2017-01-01

Background: Household air pollution from solid fuel burning is a leading contributor to disease burden globally. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is thought to be responsible for many of these health impacts. A co-pollutant, carbon monoxide (CO) has been widely used as a surrogate measure of PM2.5 in studies of household air pollution. Objective: The goal was to evaluate the validity of exposure to CO as a surrogate of exposure to PM2.5 in studies of household air pollution and the consistency of the PM2.5–CO relationship across different study settings and conditions. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of studies with exposure and/or cooking area PM2.5 and CO measurements and assembled 2,048 PM2.5 and CO measurements from a subset of studies (18 cooking area studies and 9 personal exposure studies) retained in the systematic review. We conducted pooled multivariate analyses of PM2.5–CO associations, evaluating fuels, urbanicity, season, study, and CO methods as covariates and effect modifiers. Results: We retained 61 of 70 studies for review, representing 27 countries. Reported PM2.5–CO correlations (r) were lower for personal exposure (range: 0.22–0.97; median=0.57) than for cooking areas (range: 0.10–0.96; median=0.71). In the pooled analyses of personal exposure and cooking area concentrations, the variation in ln(CO) explained 13% and 48% of the variation in ln(PM2.5), respectively. Conclusions: Our results suggest that exposure to CO is not a consistently valid surrogate measure of exposure to PM2.5. Studies measuring CO exposure as a surrogate measure of PM exposure should conduct local validation studies for different stove/fuel types and seasons. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP767 PMID:28886596

A Surrogate Approach to the Experimental Optimization of Multielement Airfoils

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otto, John C.; Landman, Drew; Patera, Anthony T.

1996-01-01

The incorporation of experimental test data into the optimization process is accomplished through the use of Bayesian-validated surrogates. In the surrogate approach, a surrogate for the experiment (e.g., a response surface) serves in the optimization process. The validation step of the framework provides a qualitative assessment of the surrogate quality, and bounds the surrogate-for-experiment error on designs "near" surrogate-predicted optimal designs. The utility of the framework is demonstrated through its application to the experimental selection of the trailing edge ap position to achieve a design lift coefficient for a three-element airfoil.

When life imitates art: surrogate decision making at the end of life.

PubMed

Shapiro, Susan P

2007-01-01

The privileging of the substituted judgment standard as the gold standard for surrogate decision making in law and bioethics has constrained the research agenda in end-of-life decision making. The empirical literature is inundated with a plethora of "Newlywed Game" designs, in which potential patients and potential surrogates respond to hypothetical scenarios to see how often they "get it right." The preoccupation with determining the capacity of surrogates to accurately reproduce the judgments of another makes a number of assumptions that blind scholars to the variables central to understanding how surrogates actually make medical decisions on behalf of another. These assumptions include that patient preferences are knowable, surrogates have adequate and accurate information, time stands still, patients get the surrogates they want, patients want and surrogates utilize substituted judgment criteria, and surrogates are disinterested. This article examines these assumptions and considers the challenges of designing research that makes them problematic.

The psychological well-being and prenatal bonding of gestational surrogates.

PubMed

Lamba, N; Jadva, V; Kadam, K; Golombok, S

2018-02-23

How does the psychological well-being and prenatal bonding of Indian surrogates differ from a comparison group of mothers? Surrogates had higher levels of depression during pregnancy and post-birth, displayed lower emotional connection with the unborn baby, and greater care towards the healthy growth of the foetus, than the comparison group of mothers. Studies in the West have found that surrogates do not suffer long-term psychological harm. One study has shown that surrogates bond less with the foetus than expectant mothers. This study uses a prospective, longitudinal and cross-sectional design. Surrogates and a matched group of expectant mothers were seen twice, during 4-9 months of pregnancy and 4-6 months after the birth. Semi-structured interviews and standardized questionnaires were administered to 50 surrogates and 69 expectant mothers during pregnancy and 45 surrogates and 49 expectant mothers post-birth. All gestational surrogates were hosting pregnancies for international intended parents. Surrogates had higher levels of depression compared to the comparison group of mothers, during pregnancy and post-birth (P < 0.02). Low social support during pregnancy, hiding surrogacy and criticism from others were found to be predictive of higher depression in surrogates post-birth (P < 0.05). Regarding prenatal bonding, surrogates interacted less with and thought less about the foetus but adopted better eating habits and were more likely to avoid unhealthy practices during pregnancy, than expectant mothers (P < 0.05). No associations were found between greater prenatal bonding and greater psychological distress during pregnancy or after relinquishment. All surrogates were recruited from one clinic in Mumbai, and thus the representativeness of this sample is not known. Also, the possibility of socially desirable responding from surrogates cannot be ruled out. As this is the first study of the psychological well-being of surrogates in low-income countries, the findings have important policy implications. Providing support and counselling to surrogates, especially during pregnancy, may alleviate some of the psychological problems faced by surrogates. This study was supported by the Wellcome Trust [097857/Z/11/Z] and Nehru Trust, Cambridge. K.K. is the Medical Director of Corion Fertility Clinic. All other authors have no conflict of interest to declare.

Comparability and accuracy of fluvial-sediment data - A view from the U.S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, J.R.; Glysson, G.D.; Mueller, D.S.; ,

2002-01-01

The quality of historical fluvial-sediment data cannot be taken for granted, based on a review of upper Colorado River basin suspended-sediment discharges, and on an evaluation of the reliability of Total Suspended Solids (TSS) data. Additionally, the quality of future fluvial-sediment data are not assured. Sediment-surrogate technologies, including those that operate on acoustic, laser, bulk optic, digital optic, or pressure differential principles, are being used with increasing frequency to measure in-stream and (or) laboratory fluvial-sediment characteristics. Data from sediment-surrogate technologies may yield results that differ significantly from those obtained by traditional methods for the same sedimentary conditions. Development of national sediment data-quality criteria and rigorous comparisons of data derived from sediment-surrogate technologies to those obtained by traditional techniques will minimize the potential for future fluvial-sediment data-quality concerns.

In Vitro Engineering of Vascularized Tissue Surrogates

PubMed Central

Sakaguchi, Katsuhisa; Shimizu, Tatsuya; Horaguchi, Shigeto; Sekine, Hidekazu; Yamato, Masayuki; Umezu, Mitsuo; Okano, Teruo

2013-01-01

In vitro scaling up of bioengineered tissues is known to be limited by diffusion issues, specifically a lack of vasculature. Here, we report a new strategy for preserving cell viability in three-dimensional tissues using cell sheet technology and a perfusion bioreactor having collagen-based microchannels. When triple-layer cardiac cell sheets are incubated within this bioreactor, endothelial cells in the cell sheets migrate to vascularize in the collagen gel, and finally connect with the microchannels. Medium readily flows into the cell sheets through the microchannels and the newly developed capillaries, while the cardiac construct shows simultaneous beating. When additional triple-layer cell sheets are repeatedly layered, new multi-layer construct spontaneously integrates and the resulting construct becomes a vascularized thick tissue. These results confirmed our method to fabricate in vitro vascularized tissue surrogates that overcomes engineered-tissue thickness limitations. The surrogates promise new therapies for damaged organs as well as new in vitro tissue models. PMID:23419835

Surrogate measures: A proposed alternative in human factors assessment of operational measures of performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kennedy, Robert S.; Lane, Norman E.; Kuntz, Lois A.

1987-01-01

Surrogate measures are proposed as an alternative to direct assessment of operational performance for purposes of screening agents who may have to work under unusual stresses or in exotic environments. Such measures are particularly proposed when the surrogate can be empirically validated against the operational criterion. The focus is on cognitive (or throughput) performances in humans as opposed to sensory (input) or motor (output) measures, but the methods should be applicable for development of batteries which will tap input/output functions. A menu of performance tasks is under development for implementation on a battery-operated portable microcomputer, with 21 tests currently available. The tasks are reliable and become stable in minimum amounts of time; appear sensitive to some agents; comprise constructs related to actual job tasks; and are easily administered in most environments. Implications for human factors engineering studies in environmental stress are discussed.

Induction of Lactation in the Biological Mother After Gestational Surrogacy of Twins: A Novel Approach and Review of Literature.

PubMed

Farhadi, Roya; Philip, Roy K

One of the important challenges in surrogate pregnancies is the early bonding of genetic mother with her infant and the establishment of breastfeeding. A combination of pharmacological and nonpharmacological methods is often used for the induction of lactation. Reports of induced lactation in surrogacy are limited and scattered. In this report, we present a case of induced lactation and initiation of breastfeeding in preterm twins by the genetic mother, through her novel approach after a gestational surrogate pregnancy. Thematic approach of maternal account is summarized with context and rigor. We reviewed the reported literature of induced lactation in similar cases with an aim to address the various methods adopted.

Aortic Stiffness and Cardiovascular Risk in Women with Previous Gestational Diabetes Mellitus.

PubMed

Lekva, Tove; Bollerslev, Jens; Norwitz, Errol R; Aukrust, Pål; Henriksen, Tore; Ueland, Thor

2015-01-01

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a significant risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in later life, but the mechanism remains unclear. The aim of the study was to investigate indices of glucose metabolism, dyslipidemia, and arterial stiffness (as measured by pulse wave velocity (PWV)), in women with and without a history of GDM, using both the old WHO and new IADPSG diagnostic criteria, at 5 years after the index pregnancy. Dyslipidemia and PWV were used as surrogate markers for CVD risk. The population-based prospective cohort included 300 women from the original STORK study. All participants had an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) during pregnancy. Five years later, the OGTT was repeated along with dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry, lipid analysis, and PWV analysis. Measurements were compared between those women who did and did not have GDM based on both the WHO and IADPSG criteria. We found that women with GDM based on the old WHO criteria had higher CVD risk at 5 years than those without GDM, with markedly elevated PWV and more severe dyslipidemia (higher triglycerides (TG)/HDL cholesterol ratio). After adjusting for known risk factors, the most important predictors for elevated PWV and TG/HDL-C ratio at 5-year follow-up were maternal age, BMI, GDM, systolic blood pressure, and indices of glucose metabolism in the index pregnancy. In conclusion, we found a higher risk for CVD, based on the surrogate markers PWV and TG/HDL-C ratio, at 5-year follow-up in women diagnosed with GDM in the index pregnancy when using the old WHO diagnostic criteria.

Crystal-liquid Fugacity Ratio as a Surrogate Parameter for Intestinal Permeability.

PubMed

Zakeri-Milani, Parvin; Fasihi, Zohreh; Akbari, Jafar; Jannatabadi, Ensieh; Barzegar-Jalali, Mohammad; Loebenberg, Raimar; Valizadeh, Hadi

We assessed the feasibility of using crystal-liquid fugacity ratio (CLFR) as an alternative parameter for intestinal permeability in the biopharmaceutical classification (BCS) of passively absorbed drugs. Dose number, fraction of dose absorbed, intestinal permeability, and intrinsic dissolution rate were used as the input parameters. CLFR was determined using thermodynamic parameters i.e., melting point, molar fusion enthalpy, and entropy of drug molecules obtained using differential scanning calorimetry. The CLFR values were in the range of 0.06-41.76 mole percent. There was a close relationship between CLFR and in vivo intestinal permeability (r > 0.8). CLFR values of greater than 2 mole percent corresponded to complete intestinal absorption. Applying CLFR versus dose number or intrinsic dissolution rate, more than 92% of tested drugs were correctly classified with respect to the reported classification system on the basis of human intestinal permeability and solubility. This investigation revealed that the CLFR might be an appropriate parameter for quantitative biopharmaceutical classification. This could be attributed to the fact that CLFR could be a measure of solubility of compounds in lipid bilayer which was found in this study to be directly proportional to the intestinal permeability of compounds. This classification enables researchers to define characteristics for intestinal absorption of all four BCS drug classes using suitable cutoff points for both intrinsic dissolution rate and crystal-liquid fugacity ratio. Therefore, it may be used as a surrogate for permeability studies. This article is open to POST-PUBLICATION REVIEW. Registered readers (see "For Readers") may comment by clicking on ABSTRACT on the issue's contents page.

Aortic Stiffness and Cardiovascular Risk in Women with Previous Gestational Diabetes Mellitus

PubMed Central

Lekva, Tove; Bollerslev, Jens; Norwitz, Errol R.; Aukrust, Pål; Henriksen, Tore; Ueland, Thor

2015-01-01

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a significant risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in later life, but the mechanism remains unclear. The aim of the study was to investigate indices of glucose metabolism, dyslipidemia, and arterial stiffness (as measured by pulse wave velocity (PWV)), in women with and without a history of GDM, using both the old WHO and new IADPSG diagnostic criteria, at 5 years after the index pregnancy. Dyslipidemia and PWV were used as surrogate markers for CVD risk. The population-based prospective cohort included 300 women from the original STORK study. All participants had an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) during pregnancy. Five years later, the OGTT was repeated along with dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry, lipid analysis, and PWV analysis. Measurements were compared between those women who did and did not have GDM based on both the WHO and IADPSG criteria. We found that women with GDM based on the old WHO criteria had higher CVD risk at 5 years than those without GDM, with markedly elevated PWV and more severe dyslipidemia (higher triglycerides (TG)/HDL cholesterol ratio). After adjusting for known risk factors, the most important predictors for elevated PWV and TG/HDL-C ratio at 5-year follow-up were maternal age, BMI, GDM, systolic blood pressure, and indices of glucose metabolism in the index pregnancy. In conclusion, we found a higher risk for CVD, based on the surrogate markers PWV and TG/HDL-C ratio, at 5-year follow-up in women diagnosed with GDM in the index pregnancy when using the old WHO diagnostic criteria. PMID:26309121

Dynamics of intracranial electroencephalographic recordings from epilepsy patients using univariate and bivariate recurrence networks.

PubMed

Subramaniyam, Narayan Puthanmadam; Hyttinen, Jari

2015-02-01

Recently Andrezejak et al. combined the randomness and nonlinear independence test with iterative amplitude adjusted Fourier transform (iAAFT) surrogates to distinguish between the dynamics of seizure-free intracranial electroencephalographic (EEG) signals recorded from epileptogenic (focal) and nonepileptogenic (nonfocal) brain areas of epileptic patients. However, stationarity is a part of the null hypothesis for iAAFT surrogates and thus nonstationarity can violate the null hypothesis. In this work we first propose the application of the randomness and nonlinear independence test based on recurrence network measures to distinguish between the dynamics of focal and nonfocal EEG signals. Furthermore, we combine these tests with both iAAFT and truncated Fourier transform (TFT) surrogate methods, which also preserves the nonstationarity of the original data in the surrogates along with its linear structure. Our results indicate that focal EEG signals exhibit an increased degree of structural complexity and interdependency compared to nonfocal EEG signals. In general, we find higher rejections for randomness and nonlinear independence tests for focal EEG signals compared to nonfocal EEG signals. In particular, the univariate recurrence network measures, the average clustering coefficient C and assortativity R, and the bivariate recurrence network measure, the average cross-clustering coefficient C(cross), can successfully distinguish between the focal and nonfocal EEG signals, even when the analysis is restricted to nonstationary signals, irrespective of the type of surrogates used. On the other hand, we find that the univariate recurrence network measures, the average path length L, and the average betweenness centrality BC fail to distinguish between the focal and nonfocal EEG signals when iAAFT surrogates are used. However, these two measures can distinguish between focal and nonfocal EEG signals when TFT surrogates are used for nonstationary signals. We also report an improvement in the performance of nonlinear prediction error N and nonlinear interdependence measure L used by Andrezejak et al., when TFT surrogates are used for nonstationary EEG signals. We also find that the outcome of the nonlinear independence test based on the average cross-clustering coefficient C(cross) is independent of the outcome of the randomness test based on the average clustering coefficient C. Thus, the univariate and bivariate recurrence network measures provide independent information regarding the dynamics of the focal and nonfocal EEG signals. In conclusion, recurrence network analysis combined with nonstationary surrogates can be applied to derive reliable biomarkers to distinguish between epileptogenic and nonepileptogenic brain areas using EEG signals.

Dynamics of intracranial electroencephalographic recordings from epilepsy patients using univariate and bivariate recurrence networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subramaniyam, Narayan Puthanmadam; Hyttinen, Jari

2015-02-01

Recently Andrezejak et al. combined the randomness and nonlinear independence test with iterative amplitude adjusted Fourier transform (iAAFT) surrogates to distinguish between the dynamics of seizure-free intracranial electroencephalographic (EEG) signals recorded from epileptogenic (focal) and nonepileptogenic (nonfocal) brain areas of epileptic patients. However, stationarity is a part of the null hypothesis for iAAFT surrogates and thus nonstationarity can violate the null hypothesis. In this work we first propose the application of the randomness and nonlinear independence test based on recurrence network measures to distinguish between the dynamics of focal and nonfocal EEG signals. Furthermore, we combine these tests with both iAAFT and truncated Fourier transform (TFT) surrogate methods, which also preserves the nonstationarity of the original data in the surrogates along with its linear structure. Our results indicate that focal EEG signals exhibit an increased degree of structural complexity and interdependency compared to nonfocal EEG signals. In general, we find higher rejections for randomness and nonlinear independence tests for focal EEG signals compared to nonfocal EEG signals. In particular, the univariate recurrence network measures, the average clustering coefficient C and assortativity R , and the bivariate recurrence network measure, the average cross-clustering coefficient Ccross, can successfully distinguish between the focal and nonfocal EEG signals, even when the analysis is restricted to nonstationary signals, irrespective of the type of surrogates used. On the other hand, we find that the univariate recurrence network measures, the average path length L , and the average betweenness centrality BC fail to distinguish between the focal and nonfocal EEG signals when iAAFT surrogates are used. However, these two measures can distinguish between focal and nonfocal EEG signals when TFT surrogates are used for nonstationary signals. We also report an improvement in the performance of nonlinear prediction error N and nonlinear interdependence measure L used by Andrezejak et al., when TFT surrogates are used for nonstationary EEG signals. We also find that the outcome of the nonlinear independence test based on the average cross-clustering coefficient Ccross is independent of the outcome of the randomness test based on the average clustering coefficient C . Thus, the univariate and bivariate recurrence network measures provide independent information regarding the dynamics of the focal and nonfocal EEG signals. In conclusion, recurrence network analysis combined with nonstationary surrogates can be applied to derive reliable biomarkers to distinguish between epileptogenic and nonepileptogenic brain areas using EEG signals.

Surrogate-based optimization of hydraulic fracturing in pre-existing fracture networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Mingjie; Sun, Yunwei; Fu, Pengcheng; Carrigan, Charles R.; Lu, Zhiming; Tong, Charles H.; Buscheck, Thomas A.

2013-08-01

Hydraulic fracturing has been used widely to stimulate production of oil, natural gas, and geothermal energy in formations with low natural permeability. Numerical optimization of fracture stimulation often requires a large number of evaluations of objective functions and constraints from forward hydraulic fracturing models, which are computationally expensive and even prohibitive in some situations. Moreover, there are a variety of uncertainties associated with the pre-existing fracture distributions and rock mechanical properties, which affect the optimized decisions for hydraulic fracturing. In this study, a surrogate-based approach is developed for efficient optimization of hydraulic fracturing well design in the presence of natural-system uncertainties. The fractal dimension is derived from the simulated fracturing network as the objective for maximizing energy recovery sweep efficiency. The surrogate model, which is constructed using training data from high-fidelity fracturing models for mapping the relationship between uncertain input parameters and the fractal dimension, provides fast approximation of the objective functions and constraints. A suite of surrogate models constructed using different fitting methods is evaluated and validated for fast predictions. Global sensitivity analysis is conducted to gain insights into the impact of the input variables on the output of interest, and further used for parameter screening. The high efficiency of the surrogate-based approach is demonstrated for three optimization scenarios with different and uncertain ambient conditions. Our results suggest the critical importance of considering uncertain pre-existing fracture networks in optimization studies of hydraulic fracturing.

Assessing potential effects of highway runoff on receiving-water quality at selected sites in Oregon with the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risley, John C.; Granato, Gregory E.

2014-01-01

6. An analysis of the use of grab sampling and nonstochastic upstream modeling methods was done to evaluate the potential effects on modeling outcomes. Additional analyses using surrogate water-quality datasets for the upstream basin and highway catchment were provided for six Oregon study sites to illustrate the risk-based information that SELDM will produce. These analyses show that the potential effects of highway runoff on receiving-water quality downstream of the outfall depends on the ratio of drainage areas (dilution), the quality of the receiving water upstream of the highway, and the concentration of the criteria of the constituent of interest. These analyses also show that the probability of exceeding a water-quality criterion may depend on the input statistics used, thus careful selection of representative values is important.

Critical care physicians' approaches to negotiating with surrogate decision makers: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Brush, David R; Brown, Crystal E; Alexander, G Caleb

2012-04-01

To describe how critical care physicians manage conflicts with surrogates about withdrawing or withholding patients' life support. Qualitative analysis of key informant interviews with critical care physicians during 2010. We transcribed interviews verbatim and used grounded theory to code and revise a taxonomy of themes and to identify illustrative quotes. Three academic medical centers, one academic-affiliated medical center, and four private practice groups or private hospitals in a large Midwestern city Fourteen critical care physicians. None. Physicians reported tailoring their approach to address specific reasons for disagreement with surrogates. Five common approaches were identified: 1) building trust; 2) educating and informing; 3) providing surrogates more time; 4) adjusting surrogate and physician roles; and 5) highlighting specific values. When mistrust was an issue, physicians endeavored to build a more trusting relationship with the surrogate before readdressing decision making. Physicians also reported correcting misunderstandings by providing targeted education, and some reported highlighting specific patient, surrogate, or physician values that they hoped would guide surrogates to agree with them. When surrogates struggled with decisionmaking roles, physicians attempted to reinforce the concept of substituted judgment. Physicians noted that some surrogates needed time to "come to terms" with the patent's illness before agreeing with physicians. Many physicians had witnessed colleagues negotiate in ways they found objectionable such as providing misleading information, injecting their own values into the negotiation or behaving unprofessionally toward surrogates. Although some physicians viewed their efforts to encourage surrogates' agreement as persuasive, others strongly denied persuading surrogates and described their actions as "guiding" or "negotiating." Physicians reported using a tailored approach to resolve decisional conflicts about life support and attempted to change surrogates' decisions in accordance with what the physician thought was in the patients' best interests. Although physicians acknowledged their efforts to change surrogates' decisions, many physicians did not perceive these efforts as persuasive.

Aerodynamic Optimization of Rocket Control Surface Geometry Using Cartesian Methods and CAD Geometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Andrea; Aftosmis, Michael J.; Nemec, Marian; Pulliam, Thomas H.

2004-01-01

Aerodynamic design is an iterative process involving geometry manipulation and complex computational analysis subject to physical constraints and aerodynamic objectives. A design cycle consists of first establishing the performance of a baseline design, which is usually created with low-fidelity engineering tools, and then progressively optimizing the design to maximize its performance. Optimization techniques have evolved from relying exclusively on designer intuition and insight in traditional trial and error methods, to sophisticated local and global search methods. Recent attempts at automating the search through a large design space with formal optimization methods include both database driven and direct evaluation schemes. Databases are being used in conjunction with surrogate and neural network models as a basis on which to run optimization algorithms. Optimization algorithms are also being driven by the direct evaluation of objectives and constraints using high-fidelity simulations. Surrogate methods use data points obtained from simulations, and possibly gradients evaluated at the data points, to create mathematical approximations of a database. Neural network models work in a similar fashion, using a number of high-fidelity database calculations as training iterations to create a database model. Optimal designs are obtained by coupling an optimization algorithm to the database model. Evaluation of the current best design then gives either a new local optima and/or increases the fidelity of the approximation model for the next iteration. Surrogate methods have also been developed that iterate on the selection of data points to decrease the uncertainty of the approximation model prior to searching for an optimal design. The database approximation models for each of these cases, however, become computationally expensive with increase in dimensionality. Thus the method of using optimization algorithms to search a database model becomes problematic as the number of design variables is increased.

A rank test for bivariate time-to-event outcomes when one event is a surrogate

PubMed Central

Shaw, Pamela A.; Fay, Michael P.

2016-01-01

In many clinical settings, improving patient survival is of interest but a practical surrogate, such as time to disease progression, is instead used as a clinical trial’s primary endpoint. A time-to-first endpoint (e.g. death or disease progression) is commonly analyzed but may not be adequate to summarize patient outcomes if a subsequent event contains important additional information. We consider a surrogate outcome very generally, as one correlated with the true endpoint of interest. Settings of interest include those where the surrogate indicates a beneficial outcome so that the usual time-to-first endpoint of death or surrogate event is nonsensical. We present a new two-sample test for bivariate, interval-censored time-to-event data, where one endpoint is a surrogate for the second, less frequently observed endpoint of true interest. This test examines whether patient groups have equal clinical severity. If the true endpoint rarely occurs, the proposed test acts like a weighted logrank test on the surrogate; if it occurs for most individuals, then our test acts like a weighted logrank test on the true endpoint. If the surrogate is a useful statistical surrogate, our test can have better power than tests based on the surrogate that naively handle the true endpoint. In settings where the surrogate is not valid (treatment affects the surrogate but not the true endpoint), our test incorporates the information regarding the lack of treatment effect from the observed true endpoints and hence is expected to have a dampened treatment effect compared to tests based on the surrogate alone. PMID:27059817

Advanced topics in evidence-based urologic oncology: surrogate endpoints.

PubMed

Lavallée, Luke T; Montori, Victor M; Canfield, Stephen E; Breau, Rodney H

2011-01-01

Clinical trials often report surrogate endpoint data. A surrogate endpoint is a biological marker or clinical sign that can be substituted for a patient-important outcome. Using surrogate endpoints correctly may facilitate and expedite clinical trials and may improve medical decisions. However, rigorous criteria must be met for an endpoint to be considered a valid surrogate. The purpose of this article is to review the topic of surrogate endpoints in the context of a urologic encounter. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trade Space Analysis: Rotational Analyst Research Project

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-01

POM Program Objective Memoranda PM Program Manager RFP Request for Proposal ROM Rough Order Magnitude RSM Response Surface Method RSE ...response surface method (RSM) / response surface equations ( RSEs ) as surrogate models. It uses the RSEs with Monte Carlo simulation to quantitatively

Optimal control of open quantum systems: A combined surrogate Hamiltonian optimal control theory approach applied to photochemistry on surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asplund, Erik; Klüner, Thorsten

2012-03-01

In this paper, control of open quantum systems with emphasis on the control of surface photochemical reactions is presented. A quantum system in a condensed phase undergoes strong dissipative processes. From a theoretical viewpoint, it is important to model such processes in a rigorous way. In this work, the description of open quantum systems is realized within the surrogate Hamiltonian approach [R. Baer and R. Kosloff, J. Chem. Phys. 106, 8862 (1997)], 10.1063/1.473950. An efficient and accurate method to find control fields is optimal control theory (OCT) [W. Zhu, J. Botina, and H. Rabitz, J. Chem. Phys. 108, 1953 (1998), 10.1063/1.475576; Y. Ohtsuki, G. Turinici, and H. Rabitz, J. Chem. Phys. 120, 5509 (2004)], 10.1063/1.1650297. To gain control of open quantum systems, the surrogate Hamiltonian approach and OCT, with time-dependent targets, are combined. Three open quantum systems are investigated by the combined method, a harmonic oscillator immersed in an ohmic bath, CO adsorbed on a platinum surface, and NO adsorbed on a nickel oxide surface. Throughout this paper, atomic units, i.e., ℏ = me = e = a0 = 1, have been used unless otherwise stated.

A Note on Trader Sharpe Ratios

PubMed Central

Coates, John M.; Page, Lionel

2009-01-01

Traders in the financial world are assessed by the amount of money they make and, increasingly, by the amount of money they make per unit of risk taken, a measure known as the Sharpe Ratio. Little is known about the average Sharpe Ratio among traders, but the Efficient Market Hypothesis suggests that traders, like asset managers, should not outperform the broad market. Here we report the findings of a study conducted in the City of London which shows that a population of experienced traders attain Sharpe Ratios significantly higher than the broad market. To explain this anomaly we examine a surrogate marker of prenatal androgen exposure, the second-to-fourth finger length ratio (2D∶4D), which has previously been identified as predicting a trader's long term profitability. We find that it predicts the amount of risk taken by traders but not their Sharpe Ratios. We do, however, find that the traders' Sharpe Ratios increase markedly with the number of years they have traded, a result suggesting that learning plays a role in increasing the returns of traders. Our findings present anomalous data for the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. PMID:19946367

A note on trader Sharpe Ratios.

PubMed

Coates, John M; Page, Lionel

2009-11-25

Traders in the financial world are assessed by the amount of money they make and, increasingly, by the amount of money they make per unit of risk taken, a measure known as the Sharpe Ratio. Little is known about the average Sharpe Ratio among traders, but the Efficient Market Hypothesis suggests that traders, like asset managers, should not outperform the broad market. Here we report the findings of a study conducted in the City of London which shows that a population of experienced traders attain Sharpe Ratios significantly higher than the broad market. To explain this anomaly we examine a surrogate marker of prenatal androgen exposure, the second-to-fourth finger length ratio (2D:4D), which has previously been identified as predicting a trader's long term profitability. We find that it predicts the amount of risk taken by traders but not their Sharpe Ratios. We do, however, find that the traders' Sharpe Ratios increase markedly with the number of years they have traded, a result suggesting that learning plays a role in increasing the returns of traders. Our findings present anomalous data for the Efficient Markets Hypothesis.

Nonspinning numerical relativity waveform surrogates: assessing the model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, Scott; Blackman, Jonathan; Galley, Chad; Scheel, Mark; Szilagyi, Bela; Tiglio, Manuel

2015-04-01

Recently, multi-modal gravitational waveform surrogate models have been built directly from data numerically generated by the Spectral Einstein Code (SpEC). I will describe ways in which the surrogate model error can be quantified. This task, in turn, requires (i) characterizing differences between waveforms computed by SpEC with those predicted by the surrogate model and (ii) estimating errors associated with the SpEC waveforms from which the surrogate is built. Both pieces can have numerous sources of numerical and systematic errors. We make an attempt to study the most dominant error sources and, ultimately, the surrogate model's fidelity. These investigations yield information about the surrogate model's uncertainty as a function of time (or frequency) and parameter, and could be useful in parameter estimation studies which seek to incorporate model error. Finally, I will conclude by comparing the numerical relativity surrogate model to other inspiral-merger-ringdown models. A companion talk will cover the building of multi-modal surrogate models.

Temperature measurements of the gas-phase during surrogate diesel injection using two-color toluene LIF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zegers, R. P. C.; Yu, M.; Bekdemir, C.; Dam, N. J.; Luijten, C. C. M.; de Goey, L. P. H.

2013-08-01

Planar laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) of toluene has been applied in an optical engine and a high-pressure cell, to determine temperatures of fuel sprays and in-cylinder vapors. The method relies on a redshift of the toluene LIF emission spectrum with increasing temperature. Toluene fluorescence is recorded simultaneously in two disjunct wavelength bands by a two-camera setup. After calibration, the pixel-by-pixel LIF signal ratio is a proxy for the local temperature. A detailed measurement procedure is presented to minimize measurement inaccuracies and to improve precision. n-Heptane is used as the base fuel and 10 % of toluene is added as a tracer. The toluene LIF method is capable of measuring temperatures up to 700 K; above that the signal becomes too weak. The precision of the spray temperature measurements is 4 % and the spatial resolution 1.3 mm. We pay particular attention to the construction of the calibration curve that is required to translate LIF signal ratios into temperature, and to possible limitations in the portability of this curve between different setups. The engine results are compared to those obtained in a constant-volume high-pressure cell, and the fuel spray results obtained in the high-pressure cell are also compared to LES simulations. We find that the hot ambient gas entrained by the head vortex gives rise to a hot zone on the spray axis.

Hiding in plain sight: use of realistic surrogates to reduce exposure of protected health information in clinical text.

PubMed

Carrell, David; Malin, Bradley; Aberdeen, John; Bayer, Samuel; Clark, Cheryl; Wellner, Ben; Hirschman, Lynette

2013-01-01

Secondary use of clinical text is impeded by a lack of highly effective, low-cost de-identification methods. Both, manual and automated methods for removing protected health information, are known to leave behind residual identifiers. The authors propose a novel approach for addressing the residual identifier problem based on the theory of Hiding In Plain Sight (HIPS). HIPS relies on obfuscation to conceal residual identifiers. According to this theory, replacing the detected identifiers with realistic but synthetic surrogates should collectively render the few 'leaked' identifiers difficult to distinguish from the synthetic surrogates. The authors conducted a pilot study to test this theory on clinical narrative, de-identified by an automated system. Test corpora included 31 oncology and 50 family practice progress notes read by two trained chart abstractors and an informaticist. Experimental results suggest approximately 90% of residual identifiers can be effectively concealed by the HIPS approach in text containing average and high densities of personal identifying information. This pilot test suggests HIPS is feasible, but requires further evaluation. The results need to be replicated on larger corpora of diverse origin under a range of detection scenarios. Error analyses also suggest areas where surrogate generation techniques can be refined to improve efficacy. If these results generalize to existing high-performing de-identification systems with recall rates of 94-98%, HIPS could increase the effective de-identification rates of these systems to levels above 99% without further advancements in system recall. Additional and more rigorous assessment of the HIPS approach is warranted.

Surrogate endpoints and emerging surrogate endpoints for risk reduction of cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Rasnake, Crystal M; Trumbo, Paula R; Heinonen, Therese M

2008-02-01

This article reviews surrogate endpoints and emerging biomarkers that were discussed at the annual "Cardiovascular Biomarkers and Surrogate Endpoints" symposium cosponsored by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Montreal Heart Institute. The FDA's Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition (CFSAN) uses surrogate endpoints in its scientific review of a substance/disease relationship for a health claim. CFSAN currently recognizes three validated surrogate endpoints: blood pressure, blood total cholesterol, and blood low-density lipoprotein (LDL) concentration in its review of a health claim for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Numerous potential surrogate endpoints of CVD are being evaluated as the pathophysiology of heart disease is becoming better understood. However, these emerging biomarkers need to be validated as surrogate endpoints before they are used by CFSAN in the evaluation of a CVD health claim.

Surrogate end points in clinical research: hazardous to your health.

PubMed

Grimes, David A; Schulz, Kenneth F

2005-05-01

Surrogate end points in clinical research pose real danger. A surrogate end point is an outcome measure, commonly a laboratory test, that substitutes for a clinical event of true importance. Resistance to activated protein C, for example, has been used as a surrogate for venous thrombosis in women using oral contraceptives. Other examples of inappropriate surrogate end points in contraception include the postcoital test instead of pregnancy to evaluate new spermicides, breakage and slippage instead of pregnancy to evaluate condoms, and bone mineral density instead of fracture to assess the safety of depo-medroxyprogesterone acetate. None of these markers captures the effect of the treatment on the true outcome. A valid surrogate end point must both correlate with and accurately predict the outcome of interest. Although many surrogate markers correlate with an outcome, few have been shown to capture the effect of a treatment (for example, oral contraceptives) on the outcome (venous thrombosis). As a result, thousands of useless and misleading reports on surrogate end points litter the medical literature. New drugs have been shown to benefit a surrogate marker, but, paradoxically, triple the risk of death. Thousands of patients have died needlessly because of reliance on invalid surrogate markers. Researchers should avoid surrogate end points unless they have been validated; that requires at least one well done trial using both the surrogate and true outcome. The clinical maxim that "a difference to be a difference must make a difference" applies to research as well. Clinical research should focus on outcomes that matter.

Development and Validation of a Clinic-Based Prediction Tool to Identify Female Athletes at High Risk for Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury

PubMed Central

Myer, Gregory D.; Ford, Kevin R.; Khoury, Jane; Succop, Paul; Hewett, Timothy E.

2012-01-01

Background Prospective measures of high knee abduction moment (KAM) during landing identify female athletes at high risk for anterior cruciate ligament injury. Laboratory-based measurements demonstrate 90% accuracy in prediction of high KAM. Clinic-based prediction algorithms that employ correlates derived from laboratory-based measurements also demonstrate high accuracy for prediction of high KAM mechanics during landing. Hypotheses Clinic-based measures derived from highly predictive laboratory-based models are valid for the accurate prediction of high KAM status, and simultaneous measurements using laboratory-based and clinic-based techniques highly correlate. Study Design Cohort study (diagnosis); Level of evidence, 2. Methods One hundred female athletes (basketball, soccer, volleyball players) were tested using laboratory-based measures to confirm the validity of identified laboratory-based correlate variables to clinic-based measures included in a prediction algorithm to determine high KAM status. To analyze selected clinic-based surrogate predictors, another cohort of 20 female athletes was simultaneously tested with both clinic-based and laboratory-based measures. Results The prediction model (odds ratio: 95% confidence interval), derived from laboratory-based surrogates including (1) knee valgus motion (1.59: 1.17-2.16 cm), (2) knee flexion range of motion (0.94: 0.89°-1.00°), (3) body mass (0.98: 0.94-1.03 kg), (4) tibia length (1.55: 1.20-2.07 cm), and (5) quadriceps-to-hamstrings ratio (1.70: 0.48%-6.0%), predicted high KAM status with 84% sensitivity and 67% specificity (P < .001). Clinic-based techniques that used a calibrated physician’s scale, a standard measuring tape, standard camcorder, ImageJ software, and an isokinetic dynamometer showed high correlation (knee valgus motion, r = .87; knee flexion range of motion, r = .95; and tibia length, r = .98) to simultaneous laboratory-based measurements. Body mass and quadriceps-to-hamstrings ratio were included in both methodologies and therefore had r values of 1.0. Conclusion Clinically obtainable measures of increased knee valgus, knee flexion range of motion, body mass, tibia length, and quadriceps-to-hamstrings ratio predict high KAM status in female athletes with high sensitivity and specificity. Female athletes who demonstrate high KAM landing mechanics are at increased risk for anterior cruciate ligament injury and are more likely to benefit from neuromuscular training targeted to this risk factor. Use of the developed clinic-based assessment tool may facilitate high-risk athletes’ entry into appropriate interventions that will have greater potential to reduce their injury risk. PMID:20595554

A method to determine the orientation of the upper arm about its longitudinal axis during dynamic motions.

PubMed

Gordon, Brian J; Dapena, Jesús

2013-01-04

Inaccuracy in determining the orientation of the upper arm about its longitudinal axis (twist orientation) has been a pervasive problem in sport biomechanics research. The purpose of this study was to develop a method to improve the calculation of the upper arm twist orientation in dynamic sports activities. The twist orientation of the upper arm is defined by the orientation of its mediolateral axis. The basis for the new method is that at any angle in the flexion/extension range of an individual's elbow, it is possible to define a true mediolateral axis and also a surrogate mediolateral axis perpendicular to the plane containing the shoulder, elbow and wrist joints. The difference between the twist orientations indicated by these two versions of the mediolateral axis will vary from one elbow angle to another, but if the elbow joint deforms equally in different activities, for any given subject the difference should be constant at any given value of the elbow angle. Application of the new method required individuals to execute sedate elbow extension trials prior to the dynamic trials. Three-dimensional motion analysis of the sedate extension trials allowed quantification of the difference between the true and surrogate mediolateral axes for all angles in the entire flexion/extension range of an individual's elbow. This made it possible to calculate in any dynamic trial the twist orientation defined by the true mediolateral axis from the twist orientation defined by the surrogate mediolateral axis. The method was tested on a wooden model of the arm. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The representation of healthcare end users' perspectives by surrogates in healthcare decisions: a literature review.

PubMed

Shah, Syed Ghulam Sarwar; Farrow, Alexandra; Robinson, Ian

2009-12-01

The representation of end users' perspectives in healthcare decisions requires involvement of their surrogates when the end users, i.e. certain patients, elderly people, children and people with disabilities, are unable to present their views. To review critical issues, and the advantages and disadvantages of involving surrogates in representing end users' perspectives in healthcare decisions. A systematic review of literature published in peer-reviewed journals from 1990 to 2005. Findings show that surrogates are used widely in health care and that they are necessary to represent end users' perspectives in healthcare decisions when the latter are unable to do so themselves. Critical issues in using surrogates include key ethical, social, cultural, legal and medico-technological factors; ascertaining the best interest of end users; potential conflict of interest; possible biased decisions and the burden on surrogates. The key advantage of surrogate involvement in healthcare decisions is their ability to represent end users' needs, values and wishes. The main disadvantages include potential discrepancies between the decisions and conclusions of surrogates and end users; the failure of surrogates to predict end users' preferences accurately and the lack of certainty that useful information will be obtained through the surrogacy process. This systematic review has revealed that the involvement of surrogates is an additional vital way to represent end users' perspectives in healthcare decisions where for a range of reasons their opinions are unable to be effectively ascertained. However, because of the heterogeneity of surrogates and end users, the selection of appropriate surrogates and deploying surrogate decisions require particularly careful consideration of their value in individual cases; thus, subsequent decision-making must be reviewed on a case-to-case basis to seek to ensure that the best interests, needs and wishes of the end user are fully and accurately represented.

The Trial of Ascertaining Individual Preferences for Loved Ones' Role in End-of-Life Decisions (TAILORED) Study: A Randomized Controlled Trial to Improve Surrogate Decision Making.

PubMed

Sulmasy, Daniel P; Hughes, Mark T; Yenokyan, Gayane; Kub, Joan; Terry, Peter B; Astrow, Alan B; Johnson, Julie A; Ho, Grace; Nolan, Marie T

2017-10-01

Patients with terminal illnesses often require surrogate decision makers. Prior research has demonstrated high surrogate stress, and that despite standards promoting substituted judgment, most patients do not want their surrogates to make pure substituted judgments for them. It is not known how best to help loved ones fulfill the surrogate role. To test the effectiveness of an intervention to help surrogate decision makers. One hundred sixty-six patients (41% with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and 59% with gastrointestinal cancers) and their surrogates at two university medical centers were randomized to an intensive nurse-directed discussion of the end-of-life decision control preferences of the patient (TAILORED) or a discussion of nutrition (CONTROL); 163 completed baseline interviews and underwent the intervention. Twelve patients died during follow-up and 137 dyads completed the study. Post-intervention, using all available data, TAILORED patients and surrogates became more likely to endorse mutual surrogate decision making, that is, a balance of their own wishes and what the surrogate thinks best (adjusted odds compared with baseline for patients = 1.78, P = 0.04; adjusted odds for surrogates = 2.05, P = 0.03). CONTROL patients became 40% less likely to endorse mutual surrogate decision making (P = 0.08), and CONTROL surrogates did not change significantly from baseline (adjusted odds = 1.44, P = 0.28). Stress levels decreased for TAILORED surrogates (impact of events scale = 23.1 ± 14.6 baseline, 20.8 ± 15.3 f/u, P = 0.046), but not for CONTROL (P = 0.85), and post-intervention stress was lower for TAILORED than CONTROL (P = 0.04). Surrogates' confidence was uniformly high at baseline and did not change. Caregiver burden (Zarit) increased from 12.5 ± 6.5 to 14.7 ± 8.1 for TAILORED (P < 0.01), while not changing for CONTROL, yet satisfaction with involvement in decision making was higher at follow-up for TAILORED than for CONTROL (71% vs. 52%, P = 0.03). TAILORED patients and surrogates who completed the study adopted a more mutual decision-making style, balancing their own wishes with what the surrogate thinks would be best for them. Surrogates reported less stress and more satisfaction. Confidence was high at baseline and did not change. There was a modest increase in caregiver burden. These findings suggest that interventions like TAILORED might positively impact surrogate decision making. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fiber orientation interpolation for the multiscale analysis of short fiber reinforced composite parts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Köbler, Jonathan; Schneider, Matti; Ospald, Felix; Andrä, Heiko; Müller, Ralf

2018-06-01

For short fiber reinforced plastic parts the local fiber orientation has a strong influence on the mechanical properties. To enable multiscale computations using surrogate models we advocate a two-step identification strategy. Firstly, for a number of sample orientations an effective model is derived by numerical methods available in the literature. Secondly, to cover a general orientation state, these effective models are interpolated. In this article we develop a novel and effective strategy to carry out this interpolation. Firstly, taking into account symmetry arguments, we reduce the fiber orientation phase space to a triangle in R^2 . For an associated triangulation of this triangle we furnish each node with an surrogate model. Then, we use linear interpolation on the fiber orientation triangle to equip each fiber orientation state with an effective stress. The proposed approach is quite general, and works for any physically nonlinear constitutive law on the micro-scale, as long as surrogate models for single fiber orientation states can be extracted. To demonstrate the capabilities of our scheme we study the viscoelastic creep behavior of short glass fiber reinforced PA66, and use Schapery's collocation method together with FFT-based computational homogenization to derive single orientation state effective models. We discuss the efficient implementation of our method, and present results of a component scale computation on a benchmark component by using ABAQUS ®.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krityakierne, Tipaluck; Akhtar, Taimoor; Shoemaker, Christine A.

This paper presents a parallel surrogate-based global optimization method for computationally expensive objective functions that is more effective for larger numbers of processors. To reach this goal, we integrated concepts from multi-objective optimization and tabu search into, single objective, surrogate optimization. Our proposed derivative-free algorithm, called SOP, uses non-dominated sorting of points for which the expensive function has been previously evaluated. The two objectives are the expensive function value of the point and the minimum distance of the point to previously evaluated points. Based on the results of non-dominated sorting, P points from the sorted fronts are selected as centersmore » from which many candidate points are generated by random perturbations. Based on surrogate approximation, the best candidate point is subsequently selected for expensive evaluation for each of the P centers, with simultaneous computation on P processors. Centers that previously did not generate good solutions are tabu with a given tenure. We show almost sure convergence of this algorithm under some conditions. The performance of SOP is compared with two RBF based methods. The test results show that SOP is an efficient method that can reduce time required to find a good near optimal solution. In a number of cases the efficiency of SOP is so good that SOP with 8 processors found an accurate answer in less wall-clock time than the other algorithms did with 32 processors.« less

Fiber orientation interpolation for the multiscale analysis of short fiber reinforced composite parts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Köbler, Jonathan; Schneider, Matti; Ospald, Felix; Andrä, Heiko; Müller, Ralf

2018-04-01

For short fiber reinforced plastic parts the local fiber orientation has a strong influence on the mechanical properties. To enable multiscale computations using surrogate models we advocate a two-step identification strategy. Firstly, for a number of sample orientations an effective model is derived by numerical methods available in the literature. Secondly, to cover a general orientation state, these effective models are interpolated. In this article we develop a novel and effective strategy to carry out this interpolation. Firstly, taking into account symmetry arguments, we reduce the fiber orientation phase space to a triangle in R^2 . For an associated triangulation of this triangle we furnish each node with an surrogate model. Then, we use linear interpolation on the fiber orientation triangle to equip each fiber orientation state with an effective stress. The proposed approach is quite general, and works for any physically nonlinear constitutive law on the micro-scale, as long as surrogate models for single fiber orientation states can be extracted. To demonstrate the capabilities of our scheme we study the viscoelastic creep behavior of short glass fiber reinforced PA66, and use Schapery's collocation method together with FFT-based computational homogenization to derive single orientation state effective models. We discuss the efficient implementation of our method, and present results of a component scale computation on a benchmark component by using ABAQUS ®.

Search for a test for fracture potential of asphalt mixes : close out meeting.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-08-01

Presentation Outline : 1)Part A Introduction : 2)Part B The OT test method : 3)Part C Surrogate crack tests (6 No.) : 4)Part D Comparison of the crack test methods : 5)Part E Summary & recommendations : 6)Miscellaneous & discussions

Sequential Designs Based on Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification in Sparse Representation Surrogate Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Ray -Bing; Wang, Weichung; Jeff Wu, C. F.

A numerical method, called OBSM, was recently proposed which employs overcomplete basis functions to achieve sparse representations. While the method can handle non-stationary response without the need of inverting large covariance matrices, it lacks the capability to quantify uncertainty in predictions. We address this issue by proposing a Bayesian approach which first imposes a normal prior on the large space of linear coefficients, then applies the MCMC algorithm to generate posterior samples for predictions. From these samples, Bayesian credible intervals can then be obtained to assess prediction uncertainty. A key application for the proposed method is the efficient construction ofmore » sequential designs. Several sequential design procedures with different infill criteria are proposed based on the generated posterior samples. As a result, numerical studies show that the proposed schemes are capable of solving problems of positive point identification, optimization, and surrogate fitting.« less

Model Updating of Complex Structures Using the Combination of Component Mode Synthesis and Kriging Predictor

PubMed Central

Li, Yan; Wang, Dejun; Zhang, Shaoyi

2014-01-01

Updating the structural model of complex structures is time-consuming due to the large size of the finite element model (FEM). Using conventional methods for these cases is computationally expensive or even impossible. A two-level method, which combined the Kriging predictor and the component mode synthesis (CMS) technique, was proposed to ensure the successful implementing of FEM updating of large-scale structures. In the first level, the CMS was applied to build a reasonable condensed FEM of complex structures. In the second level, the Kriging predictor that was deemed as a surrogate FEM in structural dynamics was generated based on the condensed FEM. Some key issues of the application of the metamodel (surrogate FEM) to FEM updating were also discussed. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method was demonstrated by updating the FEM of a real arch bridge with the measured modal parameters. PMID:24634612

Sequential Designs Based on Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification in Sparse Representation Surrogate Modeling

DOE PAGES

Chen, Ray -Bing; Wang, Weichung; Jeff Wu, C. F.

2017-04-12

A numerical method, called OBSM, was recently proposed which employs overcomplete basis functions to achieve sparse representations. While the method can handle non-stationary response without the need of inverting large covariance matrices, it lacks the capability to quantify uncertainty in predictions. We address this issue by proposing a Bayesian approach which first imposes a normal prior on the large space of linear coefficients, then applies the MCMC algorithm to generate posterior samples for predictions. From these samples, Bayesian credible intervals can then be obtained to assess prediction uncertainty. A key application for the proposed method is the efficient construction ofmore » sequential designs. Several sequential design procedures with different infill criteria are proposed based on the generated posterior samples. As a result, numerical studies show that the proposed schemes are capable of solving problems of positive point identification, optimization, and surrogate fitting.« less

Key stakeholders' perceptions of the acceptability and usefulness of a tablet-based tool to improve communication and shared decision making in ICUs.

PubMed

Ernecoff, Natalie C; Witteman, Holly O; Chon, Kristen; Chen, Yanquan Iris; Buddadhumaruk, Praewpannarai; Chiarchiaro, Jared; Shotsberger, Kaitlin J; Shields, Anne-Marie; Myers, Brad A; Hough, Catherine L; Carson, Shannon S; Lo, Bernard; Matthay, Michael A; Anderson, Wendy G; Peterson, Michael W; Steingrub, Jay S; Arnold, Robert M; White, Douglas B

2016-06-01

Although barriers to shared decision making in intensive care units are well documented, there are currently no easily scaled interventions to overcome these problems. We sought to assess stakeholders' perceptions of the acceptability, usefulness, and design suggestions for a tablet-based tool to support communication and shared decision making in ICUs. We conducted in-depth semi-structured interviews with 58 key stakeholders (30 surrogates and 28 ICU care providers). Interviews explored stakeholders' perceptions about the acceptability of a tablet-based tool to support communication and shared decision making, including the usefulness of modules focused on orienting families to the ICU, educating them about the surrogate's role, completing a question prompt list, eliciting patient values, educating about treatment options, eliciting perceptions about prognosis, and providing psychosocial support resources. The interviewer also elicited stakeholders' design suggestions for such a tool. We used constant comparative methods to identify key themes that arose during the interviews. Overall, 95% (55/58) of participants perceived the proposed tool to be acceptable, with 98% (57/58) of interviewees finding six or more of the seven content domains acceptable. Stakeholders identified several potential benefits of the tool including that it would help families prepare for the surrogate role and for family meetings as well as give surrogates time and a framework to think about the patient's values and treatment options. Key design suggestions included: conceptualize the tool as a supplement to rather than a substitute for surrogate-clinician communication; make the tool flexible with respect to how, where, and when surrogates can access the tool; incorporate interactive exercises; use video and narration to minimize the cognitive load of the intervention; and build an extremely simple user interface to maximize usefulness for individuals with low computer literacy. There is broad support among stakeholders for the use of a tablet-based tool to improve communication and shared decision making in ICUs. Eliciting the perspectives of key stakeholders early in the design process yielded important insights to create a tool tailored to the needs of surrogates and care providers in ICUs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sediment transport and evaluation of sediment surrogate ratings in the Kootenai River near Bonners Ferry, Idaho, Water Years 2011–14

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Molly S.; Fosness, Ryan L.; Etheridge, Alexandra B.

2015-12-14

Acoustic surrogate ratings were developed between backscatter data collected using acoustic Doppler velocity meters (ADVMs) and results of suspended-sediment samples. Ratings were successfully fit to various sediment size classes (total, fines, and sands) using ADVMs of different frequencies (1.5 and 3 megahertz). Surrogate ratings also were developed using variations of streamflow and seasonal explanatory variables. The streamflow surrogate ratings produced average annual sediment load estimates that were 8–32 percent higher, depending on site and sediment type, than estimates produced using the acoustic surrogate ratings. The streamflow surrogate ratings tended to overestimate suspended-sediment concentrations and loads during periods of elevated releases from Libby Dam as well as on the falling limb of the streamflow hydrograph. Estimates from the acoustic surrogate ratings more closely matched suspended-sediment sample results than did estimates from the streamflow surrogate ratings during these periods as well as for rating validation samples collected in water year 2014. Acoustic surrogate technologies are an effective means to obtain continuous, accurate estimates of suspended-sediment concentrations and loads for general monitoring and sediment-transport modeling. In the Kootenai River, continued operation of the acoustic surrogate sites and use of the acoustic surrogate ratings to calculate continuous suspended-sediment concentrations and loads will allow for tracking changes in sediment transport over time.

Toward a Psychology of Surrogate Decision Making.

PubMed

Tunney, Richard J; Ziegler, Fenja V

2015-11-01

In everyday life, many of the decisions that we make are made on behalf of other people. A growing body of research suggests that we often, but not always, make different decisions on behalf of other people than the other person would choose. This is problematic in the practical case of legally designated surrogate decision makers, who may not meet the substituted judgment standard. Here, we review evidence from studies of surrogate decision making and examine the extent to which surrogate decision making accurately predicts the recipient's wishes, or if it is an incomplete or distorted application of the surrogate's own decision-making processes. We find no existing domain-general model of surrogate decision making. We propose a framework by which surrogate decision making can be assessed and a novel domain-general theory as a unifying explanatory concept for surrogate decisions. © The Author(s) 2015.

Ex vivo validation of a stoichiometric dual energy CT proton stopping power ratio calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Yunhe; Ainsley, Christopher; Yin, Lingshu; Zou, Wei; McDonough, James; Solberg, Timothy D.; Lin, Alexander; Teo, Boon-Keng Kevin

2018-03-01

A major source of uncertainty in proton therapy is the conversion of Hounsfield unit (HU) to proton stopping power ratio relative to water (SPR). In this study, we measured and quantified the accuracy of a stoichiometric dual energy CT (DECT) SPR calibration. We applied a stoichiometric DECT calibration method to derive the SPR using CT images acquired sequentially at 80 kVp and 140 kVp . The dual energy index was derived based on the HUs of the paired spectral images and used to calculate the effective atomic number (Z eff), relative electron density ({{ρ }e} ), and SPRs of phantom and biological materials. Two methods were used to verify the derived SPRs. The first method measured the sample’s water equivalent thicknesses to deduce the SPRs using a multi-layer ion chamber (MLIC) device. The second method utilized Gafchromic EBT3 film to directly compare relative ranges between sample and water after proton pencil beam irradiation. Ex vivo validation was performed using five different types of frozen animal tissues with the MLIC and three types of fresh animal tissues using film. In addition, the residual ranges recorded on the film were used to compare with those from the treatment planning system using both DECT and SECT derived SPRs. Bland-Altman analysis indicates that the differences between DECT and SPR measurement of tissue surrogates, frozen and fresh animal tissues has a mean of 0.07% and standard deviation of 0.58% compared to 0.55% and 1.94% respectively for single energy CT (SECT) and SPR measurement. Our ex vivo study indicates that the stoichiometric DECT SPR calibration method has the potential to be more accurate than SECT calibration under ideal conditions although beam hardening effects and other image artifacts may increase this uncertainty.

Elimination of representative contaminant candidate list viruses, coxsackievirus, echovirus, hepatitis A virus, and norovirus, from water by coagulation processes.

PubMed

Shirasaki, N; Matsushita, T; Matsui, Y; Murai, K; Aochi, A

2017-03-15

We examined the removal of representative contaminant candidate list (CCL) viruses (coxsackievirus [CV] B5, echovirus type [EV] 11, and hepatitis A virus [HAV] IB), recombinant norovirus virus-like particles (rNV-VLPs), and murine norovirus (MNV) type 1 by coagulation. Water samples were subjected to coagulation with polyaluminum chloride (PACl, basicity 1.5) followed by either settling or settling and filtration. Together with our previously published results, the removal ratio order, as evaluated by a plaque-forming-unit method or an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay after settling, was HAV>EV=rNV-VLPs≥CV=poliovirus type 1=MNV>adenovirus type 40 (range, 0.1-2.7-log 10 ). Infectious HAV was likely inactivated by the PACl and therefore was removed to a greater extent than the other viruses. A nonsulfated high-basicity PACl (basicity 2.1), removed the CCL viruses more efficiently than did two other sulfated PACls (basicity 1.5 or 2.1), alum, or ferric chloride. We also examined the removal ratio of two bacteriophages. The removal ratios for MS2 tended to be larger than those of the CCL viruses, whereas those for φX174 were comparable with or smaller than those of the CCL viruses. Therefore, φX174 may be a useful conservative surrogate for CCL viruses during coagulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inspiratory capacity at inflation hold in ventilated newborns: a surrogate measure for static compliance of the respiratory system.

PubMed

Hentschel, Roland; Semar, Nicole; Guttmann, Josef

2012-09-01

To study appropriateness of respiratory system compliance calculation using an inflation hold and compare it with ventilator readouts of pressure and tidal volume as well as with measurement of compliance of the respiratory system with the single-breath-single-occlusion technique gained with a standard lung function measurement. Prospective clinical trial. Level III neonatal unit of a university hospital. Sixty-seven newborns, born prematurely or at term, ventilated for a variety of pathologic conditions. A standardized sigh maneuver with a predefined peak inspiratory pressure of 30 cm H2O, termed inspiratory capacity at inflation hold, was applied. Using tidal volume, exhaled from inspiratory pause down to ambient pressure, as displayed by the ventilator, and predefined peak inspiratory pressure, compliance at inspiratory capacity at inflation hold conditions could be calculated as well as ratio of tidal volume and ventilator pressure using tidal volume and differential pressure at baseline ventilator settings: peak inspiratory pressure minus positive end-expiratory pressure. For the whole cohort, the equation for the regression between tidal volume at inspiratory capacity at inflation hold and compliance of the respiratory system was: compliance of the respiratory system = 0.052 * tidal volume at inspiratory capacity at inflation hold - 0.113, and compliance at inspiratory capacity at inflation hold conditions was closely related to the standard lung function measurement method of compliance of the respiratory system (R = 0.958). In contrast, ratio of tidal volume and ventilator pressure per kilogram calculated from the ventilator readouts and displayed against compliance of the respiratory system per kilogram yielded a broad scatter throughout the whole range of compliance; both were only weakly correlated (R = 0.309) and also the regression line was significantly different from the line of identity (p < .05). Peak inspiratory pressure at study entry did not affect the correlation between compliance at inspiratory capacity at inflation hold conditions and compliance of the respiratory system. After a standard sigh maneuver, inspiratory capacity at inflation hold and the derived quantity compliance at inspiratory capacity at inflation hold conditions can be regarded as a valid, accurate, and reliable surrogate measure for standard compliance of the respiratory system in contrast to ratio of tidal volume and ventilator pressure calculated from the ventilator readouts during ongoing mechanical ventilation at respective ventilator settings.

Global brain metabolic quantification with whole-head proton MRS at 3 T.

PubMed

Kirov, Ivan I; Wu, William E; Soher, Brian J; Davitz, Matthew S; Huang, Jeffrey H; Babb, James S; Lazar, Mariana; Fatterpekar, Girish; Gonen, Oded

2017-10-01

Total N-acetyl-aspartate + N-acetyl-aspartate-glutamate (NAA), total creatine (Cr) and total choline (Cho) proton MRS ( 1 H-MRS) signals are often used as surrogate markers in diffuse neurological pathologies, but spatial coverage of this methodology is limited to 1%-65% of the brain. Here we wish to demonstrate that non-localized, whole-head (WH) 1 H-MRS captures just the brain's contribution to the Cho and Cr signals, ignoring all other compartments. Towards this end, 27 young healthy adults (18 men, 9 women), 29.9 ± 8.5 years old, were recruited and underwent T 1 -weighted MRI for tissue segmentation, non-localizing, approximately 3 min WH 1 H-MRS (T E /T R /T I  = 5/10/940 ms) and 30 min 1 H-MR spectroscopic imaging (MRSI) (T E /T R  = 35/2100 ms) in a 360 cm 3 volume of interest (VOI) at the brain's center. The VOI absolute NAA, Cr and Cho concentrations, 7.7 ± 0.5, 5.5 ± 0.4 and 1.3 ± 0.2 mM, were all within 10% of the WH: 8.6 ± 1.1, 6.0 ± 1.0 and 1.3 ± 0.2 mM. The mean NAA/Cr and NAA/Cho ratios in the WH were only slightly higher than the "brain-only" VOI: 1.5 versus 1.4 (7%) and 6.6 versus 5.9 (11%); Cho/Cr were not different. The brain/WH volume ratio was 0.31 ± 0.03 (brain ≈ 30% of WH volume). Air-tissue susceptibility-driven local magnetic field changes going from the brain outwards showed sharp gradients of more than 100 Hz/cm (1 ppm/cm), explaining the skull's Cr and Cho signal losses through resonance shifts, line broadening and destructive interference. The similarity of non-localized WH and localized VOI NAA, Cr and Cho concentrations and their ratios suggests that their signals originate predominantly from the brain. Therefore, the fast, comprehensive WH- 1 H-MRS method may facilitate quantification of these metabolites, which are common surrogate markers in neurological disorders. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

4D tumor centroid tracking using orthogonal 2D dynamic MRI: Implications for radiotherapy planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tryggestad, Erik; Flammang, Aaron; Shea, Steven M.

2013-09-15

Purpose: Current pretreatment, 4D imaging techniques are suboptimal in that they sample breathing motion over a very limited “snapshot” in time. Heretofore, long-duration, 4D motion characterization for radiotherapy planning, margin optimization, and validation have been impractical for safety reasons, requiring invasive markers imaged under x-ray fluoroscopy. To characterize 3D tumor motion and associated variability over durations more consistent with treatments, the authors have developed a practical dynamic MRI (dMRI) technique employing two orthogonal planes acquired in a continuous, interleaved fashion.Methods: 2D balanced steady-state free precession MRI was acquired continuously over 9–14 min at approximately 4 Hz in three healthy volunteersmore » using a commercial 1.5 T system; alternating orthogonal imaging planes (sagittal, coronal, sagittal, etc.) were employed. The 2D in-plane pixel resolution was 2 × 2 mm{sup 2} with a 5 mm slice profile. Simultaneous with image acquisition, the authors monitored a 1D surrogate respiratory signal using a device available with the MRI system. 2D template matching-based anatomic feature registration, or tracking, was performed independently in each orientation. 4D feature tracking at the raw frame rate was derived using spline interpolation.Results: Tracking vascular features in the lung for two volunteers and pancreatic features in one volunteer, the authors have successfully demonstrated this method. Registration error, defined here as the difference between the sagittal and coronal tracking result in the SI direction, ranged from 0.7 to 1.6 mm (1σ) which was less than the acquired image resolution. Although the healthy volunteers were instructed to relax and breathe normally, significantly variable respiration was observed. To demonstrate potential applications of this technique, the authors subsequently explored the intrafraction stability of hypothetical tumoral internal target volumes and 3D spatial probability distribution functions. The surrogate respiratory information allowed the authors to show how this technique can be used to study correlations between internal and external (surrogate) information over these prolonged durations. However, compared against the gold standard of the time stamps in the dMRI frames, the temporal synchronization of the surrogate 1D respiratory information was shown to be likely unreliable.Conclusions: The authors have established viability of a novel and practical pretreatment, 4D tumor centroid tracking method employing a commercially available dynamic MRI sequence. Further developments from the vendor are likely needed to provide a reliably synchronized surrogate 1D respiratory signal, which will likely broaden the utility of this method in the pretreatment radiotherapy planning context.« less

Trends in advance care planning in cancer patients: Results from a national, longitudinal survey

PubMed Central

Narang, Amol K.; Wright, Alexi A.; Nicholas, Lauren H.

2015-01-01

Importance Advance care planning (ACP) may prevent end-of-life (EOL) care that is non-beneficial and discordant with patient wishes. Despite long-standing recognition of the merits of ACP in oncology, it is unclear whether cancer patients’ participation in ACP has increased over time. Objective To characterize trends in durable power of attorney (DPOA) assignment, living will creation, and participation in discussions of EOL care preferences, and to explore associations between ACP subtypes and EOL treatment intensity, as reflected in EOL care decisions and terminal hospitalizations. Design Prospectively collected survey data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), including data from in-depth “exit” interviews conducted with next-of-kin surrogates following the death of an HRS participant. Trends in ACP subtypes were tested, and multivariable logistic regression models examined associations between ACP subtypes and measures of treatment intensity. Setting HRS, a nationally representative, biennial, longitudinal panel study of U.S. residents over age 50. Participants 1,985 next-of-kin surrogates of HRS participants with cancer who died between 2000 and 2012. Main Outcome and Measures Trends in the surrogate-reported frequency of DPOA assignment, living will creation, and participation in discussions of EOL care preferences, as well as associations between ACP subtypes and surrogate-reported EOL care decisions/terminal hospitalizations. Results From 2000-2012, there was an increase in DPOA assignment (52% to 74%, p=0.03), without change in use of living wills (49% to 40%, p=0.63) or EOL discussions (68% to 60%, p=0.62). Surrogates increasingly reported that patients received “all care possible” at EOL (7% to 58%, p=0.004), and rates of terminal hospitalizations were unchanged (29% to 27%, p=0.70). Both living wills and EOL discussions were associated with limiting/withholding treatment [living will: adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=2.51, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.53-4.11, p<0.001; EOL discussions: AOR=1.93, 95% CI=1.53-3.14, p=0.002], while DPOA assignment was not. Conclusions and Relevance Use of DPOA increased significantly between 2000 and 2012, but was not associated with EOL care decisions. Importantly, there was no growth in key ACP domains such as discussions of care preferences. Efforts that bolster communication of EOL care preferences and also incorporate surrogate decision-makers are critically needed to ensure receipt of goal-concordant care. PMID:26181909

A cross-cultural study on surrogate mother's empathy and maternal-foetal attachment.

PubMed

Lorenceau, Ellen Schenkel; Mazzucca, Luis; Tisseron, Serge; Pizitz, Todd D

2015-06-01

Traditional and gestational surrogate mothers assist infertile couples by carrying their children. In 2005, a meta-analysis on surrogacy was conducted but no study had examined empathy and maternal-foetal attachment of surrogate mothers. Assessments of surrogate mothers show no sign of psychopathology, but one study showed differences on several MMPI-2 scales compared to a normative sample: surrogate mothers identified with stereotypically masculine traits such as assertiveness and competition. They had a higher self-esteem and lower levels of anxiety and depression. To determine if there is a difference in empathy and maternal-foetal attachment of surrogate mothers compared to a comparison group of mothers. Three groups of European traditional and gestational surrogate mothers (n=10), Anglo-Saxon traditional and gestational surrogate mothers (n=34) and a European normative sample of mothers (n=32) completed four published psychometric instruments: the Interpersonal Reactivity Index (empathy index), the Hospital Anxiety and Depressions Scale and the MC20, a social desirability scale. Pregnant surrogate mothers filled the Maternal Antenatal Attachment Scale (n=11). Statistical non-parametric analyses of variance were conducted. Depending on cultural background, surrogate mothers present differences in terms of empathy, anxiety and depression, social desirability and quality of attachment to the foetus compared to a normative sample. Environment plays a role for traditional and gestational surrogacy. Surrogate mothers of both groups are less anxious and depressed than normative samples. Maternal-foetal attachment is strong with a slightly lower quality of attachment. Surrogate mother's empathy indexes are similar to normative samples, sometimes higher. Copyright © 2014 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Surrogate markers of visceral fat and response to anti-depressive treatment in patients with major depressive disorder: a prospective exploratory analysis.

PubMed

Tønning, Morten; Petersen, Dorthe; Steglich-Petersen, Marie; Csillag, Claudio

2017-02-01

Body mass index (BMI) and body weight have been shown to be associated to treatment outcome in patients with major depressive disorder, but this relationship is not clear. Visceral fat might be an underlying mechanism explaining this relationship. The aim of this study was to prospectively investigate whether visceral fat, as measured by hip-to-waist ratio and waist circumference, affects treatment outcome in patients with major depressive disorder in patients attending a hospital psychiatric care unit in Denmark. The study was conducted as an observational prospective study including 33 patients with major depressive disorder. Assessments were made at enrolment and after 8 weeks. Primary variables were hip-to-waist ratio and waist circumference. Outcome were remission or response of depressive symptoms measured with the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAM-D 17 ) interviews and HAM-D 6 self-rating questionnaires. No differences were found in outcome between groups of patients with high vs low visceral fat in this population. The lack of association was evident for all surrogate markers of visceral fat, and suggests that visceral fat has no impact on outcomes of depressive symptoms. However, study limitations might have contributed to this lack of association, especially sample size and considerable variations on multiple parameters including treatment received during the 8 weeks of follow-up.

Surrogate endpoints for overall survival in metastatic melanoma: a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

PubMed Central

Flaherty, Keith T; Hennig, Michael; Lee, Sandra J; Ascierto, Paolo A; Dummer, Reinhard; Eggermont, Alexander M M; Hauschild, Axel; Kefford, Richard; Kirkwood, John M; Long, Georgina V; Lorigan, Paul; Mackensen, Andreas; McArthur, Grant; O'Day, Steven; Patel, Poulam M; Robert, Caroline; Schadendorf, Dirk

2015-01-01

Summary Background Recent phase 3 trials have shown an overall survival benefit in metastatic melanoma. We aimed to assess whether progression-free survival (PFS) could be regarded as a reliable surrogate for overall survival through a meta-analysis of randomised trials. Methods We systematically reviewed randomised trials comparing treatment regimens in metastatic melanoma that included dacarbazine as the control arm, and which reported both PFS and overall survival with a standard hazard ratio (HR). We correlated HRs for overall survival and PFS, weighted by sample size or by precision of the HR estimate, assuming fixed and random effects. We did sensitivity analyses according to presence of crossover, trial size, and dacarbazine dose. Findings After screening 1649 reports and meeting abstracts published before Sept 8, 2013, we identified 12 eligible randomised trials that enrolled 4416 patients with metastatic melanoma. Irrespective of weighting strategy, we noted a strong correlation between the treatment effects for PFS and overall survival, which seemed independent of treatment type. Pearson correlation coefficients were 0.71 (95% CI 0.29–0.90) with a random-effects assumption, 0.85 (0.59–0.95) with a fixed-effects assumption, and 0.89 (0.68–0.97) with sample-size weighting. For nine trials without crossover, the correlation coefficient was 0.96 (0.81–0.99), which decreased to 0.93 (0.74–0.98) when two additional trials with less than 50% crossover were included. Inclusion of mature follow-up data after at least 50% crossover (in vemurafenib and dabrafenib phase 3 trials) weakened the PFS to overall survival correlation (0.55, 0.03–0.84). Inclusion of trials with no or little crossover with the random-effects assumption yielded a conservative statement of the PFS to overall survival correlation of 0.85 (0.51–0.96). Interpretation PFS can be regarded as a robust surrogate for overall survival in dacarbazine-controlled randomised trials of metastatic melanoma; we postulate that this association will hold as treatment standards evolve and are adopted as the control arm in future trials. Funding None. PMID:24485879

Physiology-Based Modeling May Predict Surgical Treatment Outcome for Obstructive Sleep Apnea

PubMed Central

Li, Yanru; Ye, Jingying; Han, Demin; Cao, Xin; Ding, Xiu; Zhang, Yuhuan; Xu, Wen; Orr, Jeremy; Jen, Rachel; Sands, Scott; Malhotra, Atul; Owens, Robert

2017-01-01

Study Objectives: To test whether the integration of both anatomical and nonanatomical parameters (ventilatory control, arousal threshold, muscle responsiveness) in a physiology-based model will improve the ability to predict outcomes after upper airway surgery for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). Methods: In 31 patients who underwent upper airway surgery for OSA, loop gain and arousal threshold were calculated from preoperative polysomnography (PSG). Three models were compared: (1) a multiple regression based on an extensive list of PSG parameters alone; (2) a multivariate regression using PSG parameters plus PSG-derived estimates of loop gain, arousal threshold, and other trait surrogates; (3) a physiological model incorporating selected variables as surrogates of anatomical and nonanatomical traits important for OSA pathogenesis. Results: Although preoperative loop gain was positively correlated with postoperative apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) (P = .008) and arousal threshold was negatively correlated (P = .011), in both model 1 and 2, the only significant variable was preoperative AHI, which explained 42% of the variance in postoperative AHI. In contrast, the physiological model (model 3), which included AHIREM (anatomy term), fraction of events that were hypopnea (arousal term), the ratio of AHIREM and AHINREM (muscle responsiveness term), loop gain, and central/mixed apnea index (control of breathing terms), was able to explain 61% of the variance in postoperative AHI. Conclusions: Although loop gain and arousal threshold are associated with residual AHI after surgery, only preoperative AHI was predictive using multivariate regression modeling. Instead, incorporating selected surrogates of physiological traits on the basis of OSA pathophysiology created a model that has more association with actual residual AHI. Commentary: A commentary on this article appears in this issue on page 1023. Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.Gov; Title: The Impact of Sleep Apnea Treatment on Physiology Traits in Chinese Patients With Obstructive Sleep Apnea; Identifier: NCT02696629; URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT02696629 Citation: Li Y, Ye J, Han D, Cao X, Ding X, Zhang Y, Xu W, Orr J, Jen R, Sands S, Malhotra A, Owens R. Physiology-based modeling may predict surgical treatment outcome for obstructive sleep apnea. J Clin Sleep Med. 2017;13(9):1029–1037. PMID:28818154

Recovery Optimization and Survival of the Human Norovirus Surrogates Feline Calicivirus and Murine Norovirus on Carpet

PubMed Central

Buckley, David; Fraser, Angela; Huang, Guohui

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Carpets have been implicated in prolonged and reoccurring outbreaks of human noroviruses (HuNoV), the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis worldwide. Viral recovery from environmental surfaces, such as carpet, remains undeveloped. Our aim was to determine survival of HuNoV surrogates on an understudied environmental surface, carpet. First, we measured the zeta potential and absorption capacity of wool and nylon carpet fibers, we then developed a minispin column elution (MSC) method, and lastly we characterized the survival of HuNoV surrogates, feline calicivirus (FCV) and murine norovirus (MNV), over 60 days under 30 and 70% relative humidity (RH) on two types of carpet and one glass surface. Carpet surface charge was negative between relevant pH values (i.e., pH 7 to 9). In addition, wool could absorb approximately two times more liquid than nylon. The percent recovery efficiency obtained by the MSC method ranged from 4.34 to 20.89% and from 30.71 to 54.14% for FCV and MNV on carpet fibers, respectively, after desiccation. Overall, elution buffer type did not significantly affect recovery. Infectious FCV or MNV survived between <1 and 15 or between 3 and 15 days, respectively. However, MNV survived longer under some conditions and at significantly (P < 0.05) higher titers compared to FCV. Albeit, surrogates followed similar survival trends, i.e., both survived longest on wool then nylon and glass, while 30% RH provided a more hospitable environment compared to 70% RH. Reverse transcription-quantitative PCR signals for both surrogates were detectable for the entire study, but FCV genomic copies experienced significantly higher reductions (<3.80 log10 copies) on all surfaces compared to MNV (<1.10 log10 copies). IMPORTANCE Human noroviruses (HuNoV) are the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis worldwide. Classical symptoms of illness include vomiting and diarrhea which could lead to severe dehydration and death. HuNoV are transmitted by the fecal-oral or vomitus-oral route via person-to-person contact, food, water, and/or environmental surfaces. Published laboratory-controlled studies have documented the environmental stability of HuNoV on hard surfaces, but there is limited laboratory-based evidence available about survival on soft surfaces, e.g., carpet and upholstered furniture. Several epidemiological reports have suggested soft surfaces may be HuNoV fomites illustrating the importance of conducting a survival study. The three objectives of our research were to demonstrate techniques to characterize soft surfaces, develop a viral elution method for carpet, and characterize the survival of HuNoV surrogates on carpet. These results can be used to improve microbial risk assessments, the development of much-needed soft surface disinfectant, and standardizing protocols for future soft surface studies. PMID:28864657

Motivation Classification and Grade Prediction for MOOCs Learners

PubMed Central

Xu, Bin; Yang, Dan

2016-01-01

While MOOCs offer educational data on a new scale, many educators find great potential of the big data including detailed activity records of every learner. A learner's behavior such as if a learner will drop out from the course can be predicted. How to provide an effective, economical, and scalable method to detect cheating on tests such as surrogate exam-taker is a challenging problem. In this paper, we present a grade predicting method that uses student activity features to predict whether a learner may get a certification if he/she takes a test. The method consists of two-step classifications: motivation classification (MC) and grade classification (GC). The MC divides all learners into three groups including certification earning, video watching, and course sampling. The GC then predicts a certification earning learner may or may not obtain a certification. Our experiment shows that the proposed method can fit the classification model at a fine scale and it is possible to find a surrogate exam-taker. PMID:26884747

Motivation Classification and Grade Prediction for MOOCs Learners.

PubMed

Xu, Bin; Yang, Dan

2016-01-01

While MOOCs offer educational data on a new scale, many educators find great potential of the big data including detailed activity records of every learner. A learner's behavior such as if a learner will drop out from the course can be predicted. How to provide an effective, economical, and scalable method to detect cheating on tests such as surrogate exam-taker is a challenging problem. In this paper, we present a grade predicting method that uses student activity features to predict whether a learner may get a certification if he/she takes a test. The method consists of two-step classifications: motivation classification (MC) and grade classification (GC). The MC divides all learners into three groups including certification earning, video watching, and course sampling. The GC then predicts a certification earning learner may or may not obtain a certification. Our experiment shows that the proposed method can fit the classification model at a fine scale and it is possible to find a surrogate exam-taker.

Improved identification of cranial nerves using paired-agent imaging: topical staining protocol optimization through experimentation and simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres, Veronica C.; Wilson, Todd; Staneviciute, Austeja; Byrne, Richard W.; Tichauer, Kenneth M.

2018-03-01

Skull base tumors are particularly difficult to visualize and access for surgeons because of the crowded environment and close proximity of vital structures, such as cranial nerves. As a result, accidental nerve damage is a significant concern and the likelihood of tumor recurrence is increased because of more conservative resections that attempt to avoid injuring these structures. In this study, a paired-agent imaging method with direct administration of fluorophores is applied to enhance cranial nerve identification. Here, a control imaging agent (ICG) accounts for non-specific uptake of the nerve-targeting agent (Oxazine 4), and ratiometric data analysis is employed to approximate binding potential (BP, a surrogate of targeted biomolecule concentration). For clinical relevance, animal experiments and simulations were conducted to identify parameters for an optimized stain and rinse protocol using the developed paired-agent method. Numerical methods were used to model the diffusive and kinetic behavior of the imaging agents in tissue, and simulation results revealed that there are various combinations of stain time and rinse number that provide improved contrast of cranial nerves, as suggested by optimal measures of BP and contrast-to-noise ratio.

Time-Frequency Learning Machines for Nonstationarity Detection Using Surrogates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgnat, Pierre; Flandrin, Patrick; Richard, Cédric; Ferrari, André; Amoud, Hassan; Honeine, Paul

2012-03-01

Time-frequency representations provide a powerful tool for nonstationary signal analysis and classification, supporting a wide range of applications [12]. As opposed to conventional Fourier analysis, these techniques reveal the evolution in time of the spectral content of signals. In Ref. [7,38], time-frequency analysis is used to test stationarity of any signal. The proposed method consists of a comparison between global and local time-frequency features. The originality is to make use of a family of stationary surrogate signals for defining the null hypothesis of stationarity and, based upon this information, to derive statistical tests. An open question remains, however, about how to choose relevant time-frequency features. Over the last decade, a number of new pattern recognition methods based on reproducing kernels have been introduced. These learning machines have gained popularity due to their conceptual simplicity and their outstanding performance [30]. Initiated by Vapnik’s support vector machines (SVM) [35], they offer now a wide class of supervised and unsupervised learning algorithms. In Ref. [17-19], the authors have shown how the most effective and innovative learning machines can be tuned to operate in the time-frequency domain. This chapter follows this line of research by taking advantage of learning machines to test and quantify stationarity. Based on one-class SVM, our approach uses the entire time-frequency representation and does not require arbitrary feature extraction. Applied to a set of surrogates, it provides the domain boundary that includes most of these stationarized signals. This allows us to test the stationarity of the signal under investigation. This chapter is organized as follows. In Section 22.2, we introduce the surrogate data method to generate stationarized signals, namely, the null hypothesis of stationarity. The concept of time-frequency learning machines is presented in Section 22.3, and applied to one-class SVM in order to derive a stationarity test in Section 22.4. The relevance of the latter is illustrated by simulation results in Section 22.5.

SVAw - a web-based application tool for automated surrogate variable analysis of gene expression studies

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Surrogate variable analysis (SVA) is a powerful method to identify, estimate, and utilize the components of gene expression heterogeneity due to unknown and/or unmeasured technical, genetic, environmental, or demographic factors. These sources of heterogeneity are common in gene expression studies, and failing to incorporate them into the analysis can obscure results. Using SVA increases the biological accuracy and reproducibility of gene expression studies by identifying these sources of heterogeneity and correctly accounting for them in the analysis. Results Here we have developed a web application called SVAw (Surrogate variable analysis Web app) that provides a user friendly interface for SVA analyses of genome-wide expression studies. The software has been developed based on open source bioconductor SVA package. In our software, we have extended the SVA program functionality in three aspects: (i) the SVAw performs a fully automated and user friendly analysis workflow; (ii) It calculates probe/gene Statistics for both pre and post SVA analysis and provides a table of results for the regression of gene expression on the primary variable of interest before and after correcting for surrogate variables; and (iii) it generates a comprehensive report file, including graphical comparison of the outcome for the user. Conclusions SVAw is a web server freely accessible solution for the surrogate variant analysis of high-throughput datasets and facilitates removing all unwanted and unknown sources of variation. It is freely available for use at http://psychiatry.igm.jhmi.edu/sva. The executable packages for both web and standalone application and the instruction for installation can be downloaded from our web site. PMID:23497726

An evaluation of data-driven motion estimation in comparison to the usage of external-surrogates in cardiac SPECT imaging

PubMed Central

Mukherjee, Joyeeta Mitra; Hutton, Brian F; Johnson, Karen L; Pretorius, P Hendrik; King, Michael A

2014-01-01

Motion estimation methods in single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) can be classified into methods which depend on just the emission data (data-driven), or those that use some other source of information such as an external surrogate. The surrogate-based methods estimate the motion exhibited externally which may not correlate exactly with the movement of organs inside the body. The accuracy of data-driven strategies on the other hand is affected by the type and timing of motion occurrence during acquisition, the source distribution, and various degrading factors such as attenuation, scatter, and system spatial resolution. The goal of this paper is to investigate the performance of two data-driven motion estimation schemes based on the rigid-body registration of projections of motion-transformed source distributions to the acquired projection data for cardiac SPECT studies. Comparison is also made of six intensity based registration metrics to an external surrogate-based method. In the data-driven schemes, a partially reconstructed heart is used as the initial source distribution. The partially-reconstructed heart has inaccuracies due to limited angle artifacts resulting from using only a part of the SPECT projections acquired while the patient maintained the same pose. The performance of different cost functions in quantifying consistency with the SPECT projection data in the data-driven schemes was compared for clinically realistic patient motion occurring as discrete pose changes, one or two times during acquisition. The six intensity-based metrics studied were mean-squared difference (MSD), mutual information (MI), normalized mutual information (NMI), pattern intensity (PI), normalized cross-correlation (NCC) and entropy of the difference (EDI). Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the performance is reported using Monte-Carlo simulations of a realistic heart phantom including degradation factors such as attenuation, scatter and system spatial resolution. Further the visual appearance of motion-corrected images using data-driven motion estimates was compared to that obtained using the external motion-tracking system in patient studies. Pattern intensity and normalized mutual information cost functions were observed to have the best performance in terms of lowest average position error and stability with degradation of image quality of the partial reconstruction in simulations. In all patients, the visual quality of PI-based estimation was either significantly better or comparable to NMI-based estimation. Best visual quality was obtained with PI-based estimation in 1 of the 5 patient studies, and with external-surrogate based correction in 3 out of 5 patients. In the remaining patient study there was little motion and all methods yielded similar visual image quality. PMID:24107647

Diagnostic Performance of 48-Hour Fasting Test and Insulin Surrogates in Patients With Suspected Insulinoma.

PubMed

Ueda, Keijiro; Kawabe, Ken; Lee, Lingaku; Tachibana, Yuichi; Fujimori, Nao; Igarashi, Hisato; Oda, Yoshinao; Jensen, Robert T; Takayanagi, Ryoichi; Ito, Tetsuhide

2017-04-01

This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of the 48-hour fasting test and insulin surrogates followed by a glucagon stimulatory test (GST) for the diagnosis of insulinoma. Thirty-five patients with suspected insulinoma who underwent 48-hour fasting test and GST were retrospectively included in our study: 15 patients with surgically proven insulinomas and 20 patients in whom insulinoma was clinically ruled out. We determined the duration of the fasting test, plasma glucose levels, serum levels of immunoreactive insulin and C-peptide, and insulin surrogates (serum levels of β-hydroxybutyrate, free fatty acid, and response of plasma glucose to intravenous glucagon [ΔPG]) at the end of the fast. The sensitivity and specificity of the 48-hour fasting test were 100.0% and 80.0%, respectively, for the diagnosis of insulinoma. When the 48-hour fasting test and immunoreactive insulin, C-peptide, or insulin surrogates were combined, the combination with GST showed the best results. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy rate were 93.3%, 95.0%, and 94.3%, respectively, with 1 false-negative case and 1 false-positive case occurring. A more accurate and less invasive diagnosis of insulinoma was possible by combining the 48-hour fasting test with the GST, compared with the existing method.

Surrogate Agreement in Tzotzil.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aissen, Judith L.

This study investigates whether other relationships in sentence structure besides the "brother-in-law" relation sanction surrogate agreement in Zinacanteco Tzotzil (Mayan). Surrogate agreement refers to cases in which an element that lies outside the class of regular agreement controllers in a language (the surrogate) controls…

Surrogate endpoints in randomized cardiovascular clinical trials.

PubMed

Domanski, Michael; Pocock, Stuart; Bernaud, Corine; Borer, Jeffrey; Geller, Nancy; Revkin, James; Zannad, Faiez

2011-08-01

Surrogate endpoints predict the occurrence and timing of a clinical endpoint of interest (CEI). Substitution of a surrogate endpoint for a CEI can dramatically reduce the time and cost necessary to complete a Phase III clinical trial. However, assurance that use of a surrogate endpoint will result in a correct conclusion regarding treatment effect on a CEI requires prior rigorous validation of the surrogate. Surrogate endpoints can also be of substantial use in Phase I and II studies to assess whether the intended therapeutic pathway is operative, thus providing assurance regarding the reasonableness of proceeding to a Phase III trial. This paper discusses the uses and validation of surrogate endpoints. © 2010 The Authors Fundamental and Clinical Pharmacology © 2010 Société Française de Pharmacologie et de Thérapeutique.

In Vivo Readout of CFTR Function: Ratiometric Measurement of CFTR-Dependent Secretion by Individual, Identifiable Human Sweat Glands

PubMed Central

Wine, Jeffrey J.; Char, Jessica E.; Chen, Jonathan; Cho, Hyung-ju; Dunn, Colleen; Frisbee, Eric; Joo, Nam Soo; Milla, Carlos; Modlin, Sara E.; Park, Il-Ho; Thomas, Ewart A. C.; Tran, Kim V.; Verma, Rohan; Wolfe, Marlene H.

2013-01-01

To assess CFTR function in vivo, we developed a bioassay that monitors and compares CFTR-dependent and CFTR-independent sweat secretion in parallel for multiple (∼50) individual, identified glands in each subject. Sweating was stimulated by intradermally injected agonists and quantified by optically measuring spherical sweat bubbles in an oil-layer that contained dispersed, water soluble dye particles that partitioned into the sweat bubbles, making them highly visible. CFTR-independent secretion (M-sweat) was stimulated with methacholine, which binds to muscarinic receptors and elevates cytosolic calcium. CFTR-dependent secretion (C-sweat) was stimulated with a β-adrenergic cocktail that elevates cytosolic cAMP while blocking muscarinic receptors. A C-sweat/M-sweat ratio was determined on a gland-by-gland basis to compensate for differences unrelated to CFTR function, such as gland size. The average ratio provides an approximately linear readout of CFTR function: the heterozygote ratio is ∼0.5 the control ratio and for CF subjects the ratio is zero. During assay development, we measured C/M ratios in 6 healthy controls, 4 CF heterozygotes, 18 CF subjects and 4 subjects with ‘CFTR-related’ conditions. The assay discriminated all groups clearly. It also revealed consistent differences in the C/M ratio among subjects within groups. We hypothesize that these differences reflect, at least in part, levels of CFTR expression, which are known to vary widely. When C-sweat rates become very low the C/M ratio also tended to decrease; we hypothesize that this nonlinearity reflects ductal fluid absorption. We also discovered that M-sweating potentiates the subsequent C-sweat response. We then used potentiation as a surrogate for drugs that can increase CFTR-dependent secretion. This bioassay provides an additional method for assessing CFTR function in vivo, and is well suited for within-subject tests of systemic, CFTR-directed therapeutics. PMID:24204751

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fogg, P; Aland, T; West, M

Purpose: To investigate the effects of external surrogate and tumour motion by observing the reconstructed phases and AveCT in an Amplitude and Time based 4DCT. Methods: Based on patient motion studies, Cos6 and sinusoidal motions were simulated as external surrogate and tumour motions in a motion phantom. The diaphragm and tumour motions may or may not display the same waveform therefore the same and different waveforms were programmed into the phantom, scanned and reconstructed based on Amplitude and Time. The AveCT and phases were investigated with these different scenarios. The AveCT phantom images were also compared with CBCT phantom imagesmore » programmed with the same motions. Results: For the same surrogate and tumour sin motions, the phases (Amplitude and Time) and AveCT indicated similar motions based on the position of the BB at the slice and displayed contrast values respectively. For cos6 motions, due to the varied time the tumour spends at each position, the Amplitude and Time based phases differed. The AveCT images represented the actual tumour motions and the Time and Amplitude based phases were represented by the surrogate with varied times. Conclusion: Different external surrogate and tumour motions may result in different displayed image motions when observing the AveCT and reconstructed phases. During the 4DCT, the surrogate motion is readily available for observation of the amplitude and time of the diaphragm position. Following image reconstruction, the user may need to observe the AveCT in addition to the reconstructed phases to comprehend the time weightings of the tumour motion during the scan. This may also apply to 3D CBCT images where the displayed tumour position in the images is influenced by the long duration of the CBCT. Knowledge of the tumour motion represented by the greyscale of the AveCT may also assist in CBCT treatment beam verification matching.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, T; Ruan, D

Purpose: The growing size and heterogeneity in training atlas necessitates sophisticated schemes to identify only the most relevant atlases for the specific multi-atlas-based image segmentation problem. This study aims to develop a model to infer the inaccessible oracle geometric relevance metric from surrogate image similarity metrics, and based on such model, provide guidance to atlas selection in multi-atlas-based image segmentation. Methods: We relate the oracle geometric relevance metric in label space to the surrogate metric in image space, by a monotonically non-decreasing function with additive random perturbations. Subsequently, a surrogate’s ability to prognosticate the oracle order for atlas subset selectionmore » is quantified probabilistically. Finally, important insights and guidance are provided for the design of fusion set size, balancing the competing demands to include the most relevant atlases and to exclude the most irrelevant ones. A systematic solution is derived based on an optimization framework. Model verification and performance assessment is performed based on clinical prostate MR images. Results: The proposed surrogate model was exemplified by a linear map with normally distributed perturbation, and verified with several commonly-used surrogates, including MSD, NCC and (N)MI. The derived behaviors of different surrogates in atlas selection and their corresponding performance in ultimate label estimate were validated. The performance of NCC and (N)MI was similarly superior to MSD, with a 10% higher atlas selection probability and a segmentation performance increase in DSC by 0.10 with the first and third quartiles of (0.83, 0.89), compared to (0.81, 0.89). The derived optimal fusion set size, valued at 7/8/8/7 for MSD/NCC/MI/NMI, agreed well with the appropriate range [4, 9] from empirical observation. Conclusion: This work has developed an efficacious probabilistic model to characterize the image-based surrogate metric on atlas selection. Analytical insights lead to valid guiding principles on fusion set size design.« less

Stability of and Attachment to Lettuce by a Culturable Porcine Sapovirus Surrogate for Human Caliciviruses

PubMed Central

Zhang, Zhenwen

2012-01-01

Human noroviruses (HuNoVs) are the leading cause of food-borne illness, accounting for 58% of U.S. cases. Because HuNoVs are unculturable, surrogates are needed to investigate transmission routes and evaluate disinfection methods. However, the current surrogates, feline calicivirus (FCV) and murine NoV (MNV), are less tolerant than HuNoVs to acid and chlorine, respectively. Porcine sapovirus (SaV) is the only culturable enteropathogenic calicivirus. In this study, the resistance of SaV to physicochemical treatments was compared to that of HuNoVs (by reverse transcription-PCR), FCV, and MNV (by infectivity assays). Sapovirus and HuNoV (viral RNA) showed similar resistances to heat (56°C) and to different concentrations of chlorine. However, SaV was more resistant than HuNoVs to ethanol treatment (60% and 70%). Like HuNoVs, SaV was stable at pH 3.0 to 8.0, with a <1.0 log10 50% tissue culture infective dose (TCID50) reduction at pH 3.0 compared to the value for pH 4.0 to 8.0. SaV and MNV showed similar resistances, and both were more resistant than FCV to heat inactivation (56°C). FCV was more resistant than MNV and SaV to ethanol, and all three viruses showed similar resistances to treatment with low concentrations of chlorine for 1 min. Those results indicate that SaV is a promising surrogate for HuNoVs. Next, we used SaV as a surrogate to examine virus attachment to lettuce at different pHs. Sapovirus attached to lettuce leaves significantly at its capsid isoelectric point (pH 5.0), and the attached viral particles remained infectious on lettuce after 1 week of storage at 4°C. The culturable SaV is a good surrogate for studying HuNoV contamination and transmission in leafy greens and potential disinfectants. PMID:22447610

Blended shared control utilizing online identification : Regulating grasping forces of a surrogate surgical grasper.

PubMed

Stephens, Trevor K; Kong, Nathan J; Dockter, Rodney L; O'Neill, John J; Sweet, Robert M; Kowalewski, Timothy M

2018-06-01

Surgical robots are increasingly common, yet routine tasks such as tissue grasping remain potentially harmful with high occurrences of tissue crush injury due to the lack of force feedback from the grasper. This work aims to investigate whether a blended shared control framework which utilizes real-time identification of the object being grasped as part of the feedback may help address the prevalence of tissue crush injury in robotic surgeries. This work tests the proposed shared control framework and tissue identification algorithm on a custom surrogate surgical robotic grasping setup. This scheme utilizes identification of the object being grasped as part of the feedback to regulate to a desired force. The blended shared control is arbitrated between human and an implicit force controller based on a computed confidence in the identification of the grasped object. The online identification is performed using least squares based on a nonlinear tissue model. Testing was performed on five silicone tissue surrogates. Twenty grasps were conducted, with half of the grasps performed under manual control and half of the grasps performed with the proposed blended shared control, to test the efficacy of the control scheme. The identification method resulted in an average of 95% accuracy across all time samples of all tissue grasps using a full leave-grasp-out cross-validation. There was an average convergence time of [Formula: see text] ms across all training grasps for all tissue surrogates. Additionally, there was a reduction in peak forces induced during grasping for all tissue surrogates when applying blended shared control online. The blended shared control using online identification more successfully regulated grasping forces to the desired target force when compared with manual control. The preliminary work on this surrogate setup for surgical grasping merits further investigation on real surgical tools and with real human tissues.

A review of selection-based tests of abiotic surrogates for species representation.

PubMed

Beier, Paul; Sutcliffe, Patricia; Hjort, Jan; Faith, Daniel P; Pressey, Robert L; Albuquerque, Fabio

2015-06-01

Because conservation planners typically lack data on where species occur, environmental surrogates--including geophysical settings and climate types--have been used to prioritize sites within a planning area. We reviewed 622 evaluations of the effectiveness of abiotic surrogates in representing species in 19 study areas. Sites selected using abiotic surrogates represented more species than an equal number of randomly selected sites in 43% of tests (55% for plants) and on average improved on random selection of sites by about 8% (21% for plants). Environmental diversity (ED) (42% median improvement on random selection) and biotically informed clusters showed promising results and merit additional testing. We suggest 4 ways to improve performance of abiotic surrogates. First, analysts should consider a broad spectrum of candidate variables to define surrogates, including rarely used variables related to geographic separation, distance from coast, hydrology, and within-site abiotic diversity. Second, abiotic surrogates should be defined at fine thematic resolution. Third, sites (the landscape units prioritized within a planning area) should be small enough to ensure that surrogates reflect species' environments and to produce prioritizations that match the spatial resolution of conservation decisions. Fourth, if species inventories are available for some planning units, planners should define surrogates based on the abiotic variables that most influence species turnover in the planning area. Although species inventories increase the cost of using abiotic surrogates, a modest number of inventories could provide the data needed to select variables and evaluate surrogates. Additional tests of nonclimate abiotic surrogates are needed to evaluate the utility of conserving nature's stage as a strategy for conservation planning in the face of climate change. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Surrogate endpoints in oncology: when are they acceptable for regulatory and clinical decisions, and are they currently overused?

PubMed

Kemp, Robert; Prasad, Vinay

2017-07-21

Surrogate outcomes are not intrinsically beneficial to patients, but are designed to be easier and faster to measure than clinically meaningful outcomes. The use of surrogates as an endpoint in clinical trials and basis for regulatory approval is common, and frequently exceeds the guidance given by regulatory bodies. In this article, we demonstrate that the use of surrogates in oncology is widespread and increasing. At the same time, the strength of association between the surrogates used and clinically meaningful outcomes is often unknown or weak. Attempts to validate surrogates are rarely undertaken. When this is done, validation relies on only a fraction of available data, and often concludes that the surrogate is poor. Post-marketing studies, designed to ensure drugs have meaningful benefits, are often not performed. Alternatively, if a drug fails to improve quality of life or overall survival, market authorization is rarely revoked. We suggest this reliance on surrogates, and the imprecision surrounding their acceptable use, means that numerous drugs are now approved based on small yet statistically significant increases in surrogates of questionable reliability. In turn, this means the benefits of many approved drugs are uncertain. This is an unacceptable situation for patients and professionals, as prior experience has shown that such uncertainty can be associated with significant harm. The use of surrogate outcomes should be limited to situations where a surrogate has demonstrated robust ability to predict meaningful benefits, or where cases are dire, rare or with few treatment options. In both cases, surrogates must be used only when continuing studies examining hard endpoints have been fully recruited.

Surrogacy families 10 years on: relationship with the surrogate, decisions over disclosure and children's understanding of their surrogacy origins.

PubMed

Jadva, V; Blake, L; Casey, P; Golombok, S

2012-10-01

This study aimed to prospectively examine families created using surrogacy over a 10-year period in the UK with respect to intending parents' and children's relationship with the surrogate mother, parents' decisions over disclosure and children's understanding of the nature of their conception. Semi-structured interviews were administered by trained researchers to intending mothers, intending fathers and children on four occasions over a 10-year period. Forty-two families (19 with a genetic surrogate mother) participated when the child was 1-year old and by age 10 years, 33 families remained in the study. Data were collected on the frequency of contact with the surrogate mother, relationship with the surrogate, disclosure of surrogacy to the child and the child's understanding of their surrogacy birth. Frequency of contact between surrogacy families and their surrogate mother decreased over time, particularly for families whose surrogate was a previously unknown genetic carrier (P < 0.001) (i.e. where they had met through a third party and the surrogate mother's egg was used to conceive the child). Most families reported harmonious relationships with their surrogate mother. At age 10 years, 19 (90%) children who had been informed of the nature of their conception had a good understanding of this and 13 of the 14 children who were in contact with their surrogate reported that they liked her. Surrogacy families maintained good relationships with the surrogate mother over time. Children felt positive about their surrogate mother and their surrogacy birth. The sample size of this study was small and further, larger investigations are needed before firm conclusions can be drawn.

A general framework to learn surrogate relevance criterion for atlas based image segmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Tingting; Ruan, Dan

2016-09-01

Multi-atlas based image segmentation sees great opportunities in the big data era but also faces unprecedented challenges in identifying positive contributors from extensive heterogeneous data. To assess data relevance, image similarity criteria based on various image features widely serve as surrogates for the inaccessible geometric agreement criteria. This paper proposes a general framework to learn image based surrogate relevance criteria to better mimic the behaviors of segmentation based oracle geometric relevance. The validity of its general rationale is verified in the specific context of fusion set selection for image segmentation. More specifically, we first present a unified formulation for surrogate relevance criteria and model the neighborhood relationship among atlases based on the oracle relevance knowledge. Surrogates are then trained to be small for geometrically relevant neighbors and large for irrelevant remotes to the given targets. The proposed surrogate learning framework is verified in corpus callosum segmentation. The learned surrogates demonstrate superiority in inferring the underlying oracle value and selecting relevant fusion set, compared to benchmark surrogates.

Surrogacy: the experiences of surrogate mothers.

PubMed

Jadva, Vasanti; Murray, Clare; Lycett, Emma; MacCallum, Fiona; Golombok, Susan

2003-10-01

This study examined the motivations, experiences and psychological consequences of surrogacy for surrogate mothers. Thirty-four women who had given birth to a surrogate child approximately 1 year previously were interviewed by trained researchers, and the data rated using standardized coding criteria. Information was obtained on: (i) reasons for the woman's decision to become a surrogate mother; (ii) her retrospective view of the relationship with the commissioning couple before the pregnancy, during the pregnancy, and after the birth; (iii) her experiences during and after relinquishing the child; and (iv) how others reacted to her decision to become a surrogate mother. It was found that surrogate mothers do not generally experience major problems in their relationship with the commissioning couple, in handing over the baby, or from the reactions of those around them. The emotional problems experienced by some surrogate mothers in the weeks following the birth appeared to lessen over time. Surrogate mothers do not appear to experience psychological problems as a result of the surrogacy arrangement.

The role of imperfect surrogate endpoint information in drug approval and reimbursement decisions.

PubMed

Bognar, Katalin; Romley, John A; Bae, Jay P; Murray, James; Chou, Jacquelyn W; Lakdawalla, Darius N

2017-01-01

Approval of new drugs is increasingly reliant on "surrogate endpoints," which correlate with but imperfectly predict clinical benefits. Proponents argue surrogate endpoints allow for faster approval, but critics charge they provide inadequate evidence. We develop an economic framework that addresses the value of improvement in the predictive power, or "quality," of surrogate endpoints, and clarifies how quality can influence decisions by regulators, payers, and manufacturers. For example, the framework shows how lower-quality surrogates lead to greater misalignment of incentives between payers and regulators, resulting in more drugs that are approved for use but not covered by payers. Efficient price-negotiation in the marketplace can help align payer incentives for granting access based on surrogates. Higher-quality surrogates increase manufacturer profits and social surplus from early access to new drugs. Since the return on better quality is shared between manufacturers and payers, private incentives to invest in higher-quality surrogates are inefficiently low. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterization of peripheral-compartment kinetics of antibiotics by in vivo microdialysis in humans.

PubMed Central

Müller, M; Haag, O; Burgdorff, T; Georgopoulos, A; Weninger, W; Jansen, B; Stanek, G; Pehamberger, H; Agneter, E; Eichler, H G

1996-01-01

The calculation of pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic surrogates from concentrations in serum has been shown to yield important information for the evaluation of antibiotic regimens. Calculations based on concentrations in serum, however, may not necessarily be appropriate for peripheral-compartment infections. The aim of the present study was to apply the microdialysis technique for the study of the peripheral-compartment pharmacokinetics of select antibiotics in humans. Microdialysis probes were inserted into the skeletal muscle and adipose tissue of healthy volunteers and into inflamed and noninflamed dermis of patients with cellulitis. Thereafter, volunteers received either cefodizime (2,000 mg as an intravenous bolus; n = 6), cefpirome (2,000 mg as an intravenous bolus; n = 6), fleroxacin (400 mg orally n = 6), or dirithromycin (250 mg orally; n = 4); the patients received phenoxymethylpenicillin (4.5 x 10(6) U orally; n = 3). Complete concentration-versus-time profiles for serum and tissues could be obtained for all compounds. Major pharmacokinetic parameters (elimination half-life, peak concentration in serum, time to peak concentration, area under the concentration-time curve [AUC], and AUC/MIC ratio) were calculated for tissues. For cefodizime and cefpirome, the AUCtissue/AUCserum ratios were 0.12 to 0.35 and 1.20 to 1.79, respectively. The AUCtissue/AUCserum ratios were 0.34 to 0.38 for fleroxacin and 0.42 to 0.49 for dirithromycin. There was no visible difference in the time course of phenoxymethylpenicillin in inflamed and noninflamed dermis. We demonstrated, by means of microdialysis, that the concept of pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic surrogate markers for evaluation of antibiotic regimens originally developed for serum pharmacokinetics can be extended to peripheral-tissue pharmacokinetics. This novel information may be useful for the rational development of dosage schedules and may improve predictions regarding therapeutic outcome. PMID:9124826

METHOD OF LIQUID-LIQUID EXTRACTION OF BLOOD SURROGATES FOR ASSESSING HUMAN EXPOSURE TO JET FUEL

EPA Science Inventory

A baseline method of liquid?liquid extraction for assessing human exposure to JP-8 jet fuel was established by extracting several representative compounds ranging from very volatile to semi-volatile organic compounds, including benzene, toluene, nonane, decane, undecane, tridec...

Relevance of the triglyceride-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio as an important lipid fraction in apparently healthy, young, and middle-aged Indian men

PubMed Central

Kohli, Aparna; Siddhu, Anupa; Pandey, Ravindra M.; Reddy, K. Srinath

2017-01-01

Context: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the largest cause of mortality in Indians. Insulin resistance and related dyslipidemia of increased triglyceride (TG), small dense low-density lipoprotein (sd-LDL) particles, and decreased high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) are associated with increased risk of CVD. TG/HDL-C ratio could be a potential surrogate marker for this South Asian phenotype. Data are scarce on the relevance of TG/HDL-C ratio as a useful lipid marker among Indians. Aims: To study the prevalence of TG/HDL-C ratio among healthy, young, and middle-aged Indian men (25–44 years) and its relationship with other lipid and nonlipid factors. Subjects and Methods: In this cross-sectional analysis, fasting blood samples from 236 healthy participants recruited from an urban community setting were tested for TG/HDL-C ratio, HDL-C, TG, total cholesterol (TC), non-HDL-C, TC/HDL-C, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, body mass index (BMI), and body fat. Results: Mean (standard deviation) age of participants was 34.7 (7.7) years; median (interquartile range) TG/HDL-C ratio was 4 (2.85-5.2). More than half (51.3%) the participants (n = 121) recorded abnormal TG/HDL-C ratio (≥4.0). Across tertiles of TG/HDL-C ratio, there was a significant trend of higher conventional lipid parameters such as non-HDL-C*, TC/HDL-C ratio*, TG*, HDL-C*, TC**; and non-lipid parameters body-fat* and BMI*** (*P < 0.001, **P = 0.015, ***P = 0.002). LDL-C showed moderate and nonsignificant (P = 0.646) increase across tertiles. Conclusion: In a sample of apparently healthy, young, and middle-aged Indian men abnormal TG/HDL-C ratio levels were observed among more than half the participants. The TG/HDL-C ratio was closely associated with other lipid parameters and measures of adiposity, such as BMI and body fat, apart from its previously documented unique association with sd-LDL particles. TG/HDL-C ratio should be evaluated in future for risk prediction of incident CVD among Indians. PMID:28217509

Technical Note: Radiological properties of tissue surrogates used in a multimodality deformable pelvic phantom for MR-guided radiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Niebuhr, Nina I., E-mail: n.niebuhr@dkfz.de; Johnen, Wibke; Güldaglar, Timur

Purpose: Phantom surrogates were developed to allow multimodal [computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and teletherapy] and anthropomorphic tissue simulation as well as materials and methods to construct deformable organ shapes and anthropomorphic bone models. Methods: Agarose gels of variable concentrations and loadings were investigated to simulate various soft tissue types. Oils, fats, and Vaseline were investigated as surrogates for adipose tissue and bone marrow. Anthropomorphic shapes of bone and organs were realized using 3D-printing techniques based on segmentations of patient CT-scans. All materials were characterized in dual energy CT and MRI to adapt CT numbers, electron density, effectivemore » atomic number, as well as T1- and T2-relaxation times to patient and literature values. Results: Soft tissue simulation could be achieved with agarose gels in combination with a gadolinium-based contrast agent and NaF to simulate muscle, prostate, and tumor tissues. Vegetable oils were shown to be a good representation for adipose tissue in all modalities. Inner bone was realized using a mixture of Vaseline and K{sub 2}HPO{sub 4}, resulting in both a fatty bone marrow signal in MRI and inhomogeneous areas of low and high attenuation in CT. The high attenuation of outer bone was additionally adapted by applying gypsum bandages to the 3D-printed hollow bone case with values up to 1200 HU. Deformable hollow organs were manufactured using silicone. Signal loss in the MR images based on the conductivity of the gels needs to be further investigated. Conclusions: The presented surrogates and techniques allow the customized construction of multimodality, anthropomorphic, and deformable phantoms as exemplarily shown for a pelvic phantom, which is intended to study adaptive treatment scenarios in MR-guided radiation therapy.« less

Surrogate production of eggs and sperm by intrapapillary transplantation of germ cells in cytoablated adult fish.

PubMed

Majhi, Sullip Kumar; Hattori, Ricardo Shohei; Rahman, Sheikh Mustafizur; Strüssmann, Carlos Augusto

2014-01-01

Germ cell transplantation (GCT) is a promising assisted reproductive technology for the conservation and propagation of endangered and valuable genetic resources. In teleost fish, GCT in adult gonads has been achieved only in male recipients, limiting greatly the usefulness of this technique in situations where both sexes need equal and timely attention for conservation and/or propagation. Here we describe a simplified GCT approach that ultimately leads to production of donor-derived eggs and sperm in considerably short time. Donor germ cells isolated from young pejerrey Odontesthes bonariensis (Atherinopsidae) were transplanted non-surgically through the genital papilla into the sexually mature gonads of Patagonian pejerrey O. hatcheri recipients whose gonads have been depleted of endogenous GCs by heat (26°C) and chemical treatment (four doses of Busulfan at 30 mg/kg and 40 mg/kg for females and males, respectively). Transplanted spermatogonial and oogonial cells were able to recolonize the recipients' gonads and produce functional donor origin eggs and sperm within 7 months from the GCT. We confirmed the presence of donor-derived gametes by PCR in 17% and 5% of the surrogate O. hatcheri fathers and mothers, respectively. The crosses between surrogate fathers and O. bonariensis mothers yielded 12.6-39.7% pure O. bonariensis and that between a surrogate mother and an O. bonariensis father yielded 52.2% pure O. bonariensis offspring. Our findings confirm that transplantation of germ cells into sexually competent adult fish by non-surgical methods allows the production of functional donor-derived eggs and sperm in a considerably short time. The methods described here could play a vital role in conservation and rapid propagation of endangered fish genetic resources.

Surrogate Production of Eggs and Sperm by Intrapapillary Transplantation of Germ Cells in Cytoablated Adult Fish

PubMed Central

Majhi, Sullip Kumar; Hattori, Ricardo Shohei; Rahman, Sheikh Mustafizur; Strüssmann, Carlos Augusto

2014-01-01

Germ cell transplantation (GCT) is a promising assisted reproductive technology for the conservation and propagation of endangered and valuable genetic resources. In teleost fish, GCT in adult gonads has been achieved only in male recipients, limiting greatly the usefulness of this technique in situations where both sexes need equal and timely attention for conservation and/or propagation. Here we describe a simplified GCT approach that ultimately leads to production of donor-derived eggs and sperm in considerably short time. Donor germ cells isolated from young pejerrey Odontesthes bonariensis (Atherinopsidae) were transplanted non-surgically through the genital papilla into the sexually mature gonads of Patagonian pejerrey O. hatcheri recipients whose gonads have been depleted of endogenous GCs by heat (26°C) and chemical treatment (four doses of Busulfan at 30 mg/kg and 40 mg/kg for females and males, respectively). Transplanted spermatogonial and oogonial cells were able to recolonize the recipients' gonads and produce functional donor origin eggs and sperm within 7 months from the GCT. We confirmed the presence of donor-derived gametes by PCR in 17% and 5% of the surrogate O. hatcheri fathers and mothers, respectively. The crosses between surrogate fathers and O. bonariensis mothers yielded 12.6–39.7% pure O. bonariensis and that between a surrogate mother and an O. bonariensis father yielded 52.2% pure O. bonariensis offspring. Our findings confirm that transplantation of germ cells into sexually competent adult fish by non-surgical methods allows the production of functional donor-derived eggs and sperm in a considerably short time. The methods described here could play a vital role in conservation and rapid propagation of endangered fish genetic resources. PMID:24748387

The antiviral action of common household disinfectants and antiseptics against murine hepatitis virus, a potential surrogate for SARS coronavirus.

PubMed

Dellanno, Christine; Vega, Quinn; Boesenberg, Diane

2009-10-01

The 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) infected over 8000 people and killed 774. Transmission of SARS occurred through direct and indirect contact and large droplet nuclei. The World Health Organization recommended the use of household disinfectants, which have not been previously tested against SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV), to disinfect potentially contaminated environmental surfaces. There is a need for a surrogate test system given the limited availability of the SARS-CoV for testing and biosafety requirements necessary to safely handle it. In this study, the antiviral activity of standard household products was assayed against murine hepatitis virus (MHV), as a potential surrogate for SARS-CoV. A surface test method, which involves drying an amount of virus on a surface and then applying the product for a specific contact time, was used to determine the virucidal activity. The virus titers and log reductions were determined by the Reed and Muench tissue culture infective dose (TCID)50 end point method. When tested as directed, common household disinfectants or antiseptics, containing either 0.050% of triclosan, 0.12% of PCMX, 0.21% of sodium hypochlorite, 0.23% of pine oil, or 0.10% of a quaternary compound with 79% of ethanol, demonstrated a 3-log reduction or better against MHV without any virus recovered in a 30-second contact time. Common household disinfectants and antiseptics were effective at inactivating MHV, a possible surrogate for SARS-CoV, from surfaces when used as directed. In an outbreak caused by novel agents, it is important to know the effectiveness of disinfectants and antiseptics to prevent or reduce the possibility of human-to-human transmission via surfaces.

Challenge of surrogate endpoints.

PubMed

Furgerson, James L; Hannah, William N; Thompson, Jennifer C

2012-03-01

Surrogate endpoints are biomarkers that are intended to substitute for clinical endpoints. They have been used to find novel therapeutic targets, improve the statistical power and shorten the duration of clinical trials, and control the cost of conducting research studies. The more generalized use of surrogate endpoints in clinical decision making can be hazardous and should be undertaken with great caution. This article reviews prior work with surrogate endpoints and highlights caveats and lessons learned from studies using surrogate endpoints.

Statistical evaluation of surrogate endpoints with examples from cancer clinical trials.

PubMed

Buyse, Marc; Molenberghs, Geert; Paoletti, Xavier; Oba, Koji; Alonso, Ariel; Van der Elst, Wim; Burzykowski, Tomasz

2016-01-01

A surrogate endpoint is intended to replace a clinical endpoint for the evaluation of new treatments when it can be measured more cheaply, more conveniently, more frequently, or earlier than that clinical endpoint. A surrogate endpoint is expected to predict clinical benefit, harm, or lack of these. Besides the biological plausibility of a surrogate, a quantitative assessment of the strength of evidence for surrogacy requires the demonstration of the prognostic value of the surrogate for the clinical outcome, and evidence that treatment effects on the surrogate reliably predict treatment effects on the clinical outcome. We focus on these two conditions, and outline the statistical approaches that have been proposed to assess the extent to which these conditions are fulfilled. When data are available from a single trial, one can assess the "individual level association" between the surrogate and the true endpoint. When data are available from several trials, one can additionally assess the "trial level association" between the treatment effect on the surrogate and the treatment effect on the true endpoint. In the latter case, the "surrogate threshold effect" can be estimated as the minimum effect on the surrogate endpoint that predicts a statistically significant effect on the clinical endpoint. All these concepts are discussed in the context of randomized clinical trials in oncology, and illustrated with two meta-analyses in gastric cancer. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

The long-term experiences of surrogates: relationships and contact with surrogacy families in genetic and gestational surrogacy arrangements.

PubMed

Imrie, Susan; Jadva, Vasanti

2014-10-01

This study examined the contact arrangements and relationships between surrogates and surrogacy families and whether these outcomes differed according to the type of surrogacy undertaken. Surrogates' motivations for carrying out multiple surrogacy arrangements were also examined, and surrogates' psychological health was assessed. Semi-structured interviews were administered to 34 women who had given birth to a child conceived through surrogacy approximately 7 years prior to interview. Some surrogates had carried out multiple surrogacy arrangements, and data were collected on the frequency, type of contact, and surrogate's feelings about the level of contact in each surrogacy arrangement, the surrogate's relationship with each child and parent, and her experience of, and motivation for, each surrogacy. Questionnaire measures of psychological health were administered. Surrogates had completed a total of 102 surrogacy arrangements and remained in contact with the majority of families, and reported positive relationships in most cases. Surrogates were happy with their level of contact in the majority of arrangements and most were viewed as positive experiences. Few differences were found according to surrogacy type. The primary motivation given for multiple surrogacy arrangements was to help couples have a sibling for an existing child. Most surrogates showed no psychological health problems at the time of data collection. Copyright © 2014 Reproductive Healthcare Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Can SNOMED CT Changes Be Used as a Surrogate Standard for Evaluating the Performance of Its Auditing Methods?

PubMed Central

Guo-Qiang, Zhang; Yan, Huang; Licong, Cui

2017-01-01

We introduce RGT, Retrospective Ground-Truthing, as a surrogate reference standard for evaluating the performance of automated Ontology Quality Assurance (OQA) methods. The key idea of RGT is to use cumulative SNOMED CT changes derived from its regular longitudinal distributions by the official SNOMED CT editorial board as a partial, surrogate reference standard. The contributions of this paper are twofold: (1) to construct an RGT reference set for SNOMED CT relational changes; and (2) to perform a comparative evaluation of the performances of lattice, non-lattice, and randomized relational error detection methods using the standard precision, recall, and geometric measures. An RGT relational-change reference set of 32,241 IS-A changes were constructed from 5 U.S. editions of SNOMED CT from September 2014 to September 2016, with reversals and changes due to deletion or addition of new concepts excluded. 68,849 independent non-lattice fragments, 118,587 independent lattice fragments, and 446,603 relations were extracted from the SNOMED CT March 2014 distribution. Comparative performance analysis of smaller (less than 15) lattice vs. non-lattice fragments was also given to approach the more realistic setting in which such methods may be applied. Among the 32,241 IS-A changes, independent non-lattice fragments covered 52.8% changes with 26.4% precision with a G-score of 0.373. Even though this G-score is significantly lower in comparison to those in information retrieval, it breaks new ground in that such evaluations have never performed before in the highly discovery-oriented setting of OQA. PMID:29854262

Can SNOMED CT Changes Be Used as a Surrogate Standard for Evaluating the Performance of Its Auditing Methods?

PubMed

Guo-Qiang, Zhang; Yan, Huang; Licong, Cui

2017-01-01

We introduce RGT, Retrospective Ground-Truthing, as a surrogate reference standard for evaluating the performance of automated Ontology Quality Assurance (OQA) methods. The key idea of RGT is to use cumulative SNOMED CT changes derived from its regular longitudinal distributions by the official SNOMED CT editorial board as a partial, surrogate reference standard. The contributions of this paper are twofold: (1) to construct an RGT reference set for SNOMED CT relational changes; and (2) to perform a comparative evaluation of the performances of lattice, non-lattice, and randomized relational error detection methods using the standard precision, recall, and geometric measures. An RGT relational-change reference set of 32,241 IS-A changes were constructed from 5 U.S. editions of SNOMED CT from September 2014 to September 2016, with reversals and changes due to deletion or addition of new concepts excluded. 68,849 independent non-lattice fragments, 118,587 independent lattice fragments, and 446,603 relations were extracted from the SNOMED CT March 2014 distribution. Comparative performance analysis of smaller (less than 15) lattice vs. non-lattice fragments was also given to approach the more realistic setting in which such methods may be applied. Among the 32,241 IS-A changes, independent non-lattice fragments covered 52.8% changes with 26.4% precision with a G-score of 0.373. Even though this G-score is significantly lower in comparison to those in information retrieval, it breaks new ground in that such evaluations have never performed before in the highly discovery-oriented setting of OQA.

Optimization and uncertainty assessment of strongly nonlinear groundwater models with high parameter dimensionality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keating, Elizabeth H.; Doherty, John; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Kang, Qinjun

2010-10-01

Highly parameterized and CPU-intensive groundwater models are increasingly being used to understand and predict flow and transport through aquifers. Despite their frequent use, these models pose significant challenges for parameter estimation and predictive uncertainty analysis algorithms, particularly global methods which usually require very large numbers of forward runs. Here we present a general methodology for parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis that can be utilized in these situations. Our proposed method includes extraction of a surrogate model that mimics key characteristics of a full process model, followed by testing and implementation of a pragmatic uncertainty analysis technique, called null-space Monte Carlo (NSMC), that merges the strengths of gradient-based search and parameter dimensionality reduction. As part of the surrogate model analysis, the results of NSMC are compared with a formal Bayesian approach using the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. Such a comparison has never been accomplished before, especially in the context of high parameter dimensionality. Despite the highly nonlinear nature of the inverse problem, the existence of multiple local minima, and the relatively large parameter dimensionality, both methods performed well and results compare favorably with each other. Experiences gained from the surrogate model analysis are then transferred to calibrate the full highly parameterized and CPU intensive groundwater model and to explore predictive uncertainty of predictions made by that model. The methodology presented here is generally applicable to any highly parameterized and CPU-intensive environmental model, where efficient methods such as NSMC provide the only practical means for conducting predictive uncertainty analysis.

The Face-Symbol Test and the Symbol-Digit Test are not reliable surrogates for the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test in multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Williams, J; O'Rourke, K; Hutchinson, M; Tubridy, N

2006-10-01

The Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT) is the chosen task for cognitive assessment in the multiple sclerosis functional composite (MSFC) and a widely used task in neuropsychological studies of people with multiple sclerosis (MS), but is unpopular with patients. The Face-Symbol Test (FST) and Symbol-Digit Tests (SDT) are alternative methods of cognitive testing in MS, which are easily administered and patient-friendly. In order to evaluate the potential of the FST as a possible surrogate for the PASAT, we directly compared the FST to the PASAT and the SDT in a cohort of 50 MS patients with varying levels of disability. There was significant correlation between SDT and FST scores (Spearman's rho 0.80, 95% CI 0.66-0.88), R(2) 65%, with moderate inter-test agreement (k =0.52). In contrast, SDT and FST scores were less predictive of PASAT scores. We concluded that neither the FST nor SDT are reliable surrogates for the PASAT.

Multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression for prediction of random fields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parussini, L.; Venturi, D., E-mail: venturi@ucsc.edu; Perdikaris, P.

We propose a new multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression (GPR) approach for prediction of random fields based on observations of surrogate models or hierarchies of surrogate models. Our method builds upon recent work on recursive Bayesian techniques, in particular recursive co-kriging, and extends it to vector-valued fields and various types of covariances, including separable and non-separable ones. The framework we propose is general and can be used to perform uncertainty propagation and quantification in model-based simulations, multi-fidelity data fusion, and surrogate-based optimization. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed recursive GPR techniques through various examples. Specifically, we study the stochastic Burgersmore » equation and the stochastic Oberbeck–Boussinesq equations describing natural convection within a square enclosure. In both cases we find that the standard deviation of the Gaussian predictors as well as the absolute errors relative to benchmark stochastic solutions are very small, suggesting that the proposed multi-fidelity GPR approaches can yield highly accurate results.« less

To address surface reaction network complexity using scaling relations machine learning and DFT calculations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ulissi, Zachary W.; Medford, Andrew J.; Bligaard, Thomas

Surface reaction networks involving hydrocarbons exhibit enormous complexity with thousands of species and reactions for all but the very simplest of chemistries. We present a framework for optimization under uncertainty for heterogeneous catalysis reaction networks using surrogate models that are trained on the fly. The surrogate model is constructed by teaching a Gaussian process adsorption energies based on group additivity fingerprints, combined with transition-state scaling relations and a simple classifier for determining the rate-limiting step. The surrogate model is iteratively used to predict the most important reaction step to be calculated explicitly with computationally demanding electronic structure theory. Applying thesemore » methods to the reaction of syngas on rhodium(111), we identify the most likely reaction mechanism. Lastly, propagating uncertainty throughout this process yields the likelihood that the final mechanism is complete given measurements on only a subset of the entire network and uncertainty in the underlying density functional theory calculations.« less

To address surface reaction network complexity using scaling relations machine learning and DFT calculations

DOE PAGES

Ulissi, Zachary W.; Medford, Andrew J.; Bligaard, Thomas; ...

2017-03-06

Surface reaction networks involving hydrocarbons exhibit enormous complexity with thousands of species and reactions for all but the very simplest of chemistries. We present a framework for optimization under uncertainty for heterogeneous catalysis reaction networks using surrogate models that are trained on the fly. The surrogate model is constructed by teaching a Gaussian process adsorption energies based on group additivity fingerprints, combined with transition-state scaling relations and a simple classifier for determining the rate-limiting step. The surrogate model is iteratively used to predict the most important reaction step to be calculated explicitly with computationally demanding electronic structure theory. Applying thesemore » methods to the reaction of syngas on rhodium(111), we identify the most likely reaction mechanism. Lastly, propagating uncertainty throughout this process yields the likelihood that the final mechanism is complete given measurements on only a subset of the entire network and uncertainty in the underlying density functional theory calculations.« less

The Limits of Surrogates' Moral Authority and Physician Professionalism: Can the Paradigm of Palliative Sedation Be Instructive?

PubMed

Berger, Jeffrey T

2017-01-01

With narrow exception, physicians' treatment of incapacitated patients requires the consent of health surrogates. Although the decision-making authority of surrogates is appropriately broad, their moral authority is not without limits. Discerning these bounds is particularly germane to ethically complex treatments and has important implications for the welfare of patients, for the professional integrity of clinicians, and, in fact, for the welfare of surrogates. Palliative sedation is one such complex treatment; as such, it provides a valuable model for analyzing the scope of surrogates' moral authority. Guidelines for palliative sedation that present it as a "last-resort" treatment for severe and intractable suffering yet require surrogate consent in order to offer it are ethically untenable, precisely because the moral limits of surrogate authority have not been considered. © 2017 The Hastings Center.

Bayesian Adaptive Trial Design for a Newly Validated Surrogate Endpoint

PubMed Central

Renfro, Lindsay A.; Carlin, Bradley P.; Sargent, Daniel J.

2011-01-01

Summary The evaluation of surrogate endpoints for primary use in future clinical trials is an increasingly important research area, due to demands for more efficient trials coupled with recent regulatory acceptance of some surrogates as ‘valid.’ However, little consideration has been given to how a trial which utilizes a newly-validated surrogate endpoint as its primary endpoint might be appropriately designed. We propose a novel Bayesian adaptive trial design that allows the new surrogate endpoint to play a dominant role in assessing the effect of an intervention, while remaining realistically cautious about its use. By incorporating multi-trial historical information on the validated relationship between the surrogate and clinical endpoints, then subsequently evaluating accumulating data against this relationship as the new trial progresses, we adaptively guard against an erroneous assessment of treatment based upon a truly invalid surrogate. When the joint outcomes in the new trial seem plausible given similar historical trials, we proceed with the surrogate endpoint as the primary endpoint, and do so adaptively–perhaps stopping the trial for early success or inferiority of the experimental treatment, or for futility. Otherwise, we discard the surrogate and switch adaptive determinations to the original primary endpoint. We use simulation to test the operating characteristics of this new design compared to a standard O’Brien-Fleming approach, as well as the ability of our design to discriminate trustworthy from untrustworthy surrogates in hypothetical future trials. Furthermore, we investigate possible benefits using patient-level data from 18 adjuvant therapy trials in colon cancer, where disease-free survival is considered a newly-validated surrogate endpoint for overall survival. PMID:21838811

Phospholipid and Respiratory Quinone Analyses From Extreme Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfiffner, S. M.

2008-12-01

Extreme environments on Earth have been chosen as surrogate sites to test methods and strategies for the deployment of space craft in the search for extraterrestrial life. Surrogate sites for many of the NASA astrobiology institutes include the South African gold mines, Canadian subpermafrost, Atacama Desert, and acid rock drainage. Soils, sediments, rock cores, fracture waters, biofilms, and service and drill waters represent the types of samples collected from these sites. These samples were analyzed by gas chromatography mass spectrometry for phospholipid fatty acid methyl esters and by high performance liquid chromatography atmospheric pressure chemical ionization tandem mass spectrometry for respiratory quinones. Phospholipid analyses provided estimates of biomass, community composition, and compositional changes related to nutritional limitations or exposure to toxic conditions. Similar to phospholipid analyses, respiratory quinone analyses afforded identification of certain types of microorganisms in the community based on respiration and offered clues to in situ redox conditions. Depending on the number of samples analyzed, selected multivariate statistical methods were applied to relate membrane lipid results with site biogeochemical parameters. Successful detection of life signatures and refinement of methodologies at surrogate sites on Earth will be critical for the recognition of extraterrestrial life. At this time, membrane lipid analyses provide useful information not easily obtained by other molecular techniques.

A surrogate-based metaheuristic global search method for beam angle selection in radiation treatment planning.

PubMed

Zhang, H H; Gao, S; Chen, W; Shi, L; D'Souza, W D; Meyer, R R

2013-03-21

An important element of radiation treatment planning for cancer therapy is the selection of beam angles (out of all possible coplanar and non-coplanar angles in relation to the patient) in order to maximize the delivery of radiation to the tumor site and minimize radiation damage to nearby organs-at-risk. This category of combinatorial optimization problem is particularly difficult because direct evaluation of the quality of treatment corresponding to any proposed selection of beams requires the solution of a large-scale dose optimization problem involving many thousands of variables that represent doses delivered to volume elements (voxels) in the patient. However, if the quality of angle sets can be accurately estimated without expensive computation, a large number of angle sets can be considered, increasing the likelihood of identifying a very high quality set. Using a computationally efficient surrogate beam set evaluation procedure based on single-beam data extracted from plans employing equallyspaced beams (eplans), we have developed a global search metaheuristic process based on the nested partitions framework for this combinatorial optimization problem. The surrogate scoring mechanism allows us to assess thousands of beam set samples within a clinically acceptable time frame. Tests on difficult clinical cases demonstrate that the beam sets obtained via our method are of superior quality.

A surrogate-based metaheuristic global search method for beam angle selection in radiation treatment planning

PubMed Central

Zhang, H H; Gao, S; Chen, W; Shi, L; D’Souza, W D; Meyer, R R

2013-01-01

An important element of radiation treatment planning for cancer therapy is the selection of beam angles (out of all possible coplanar and non-coplanar angles in relation to the patient) in order to maximize the delivery of radiation to the tumor site and minimize radiation damage to nearby organs-at-risk. This category of combinatorial optimization problem is particularly difficult because direct evaluation of the quality of treatment corresponding to any proposed selection of beams requires the solution of a large-scale dose optimization problem involving many thousands of variables that represent doses delivered to volume elements (voxels) in the patient. However, if the quality of angle sets can be accurately estimated without expensive computation, a large number of angle sets can be considered, increasing the likelihood of identifying a very high quality set. Using a computationally efficient surrogate beam set evaluation procedure based on single-beam data extracted from plans employing equally-spaced beams (eplans), we have developed a global search metaheuristic process based on the Nested Partitions framework for this combinatorial optimization problem. The surrogate scoring mechanism allows us to assess thousands of beam set samples within a clinically acceptable time frame. Tests on difficult clinical cases demonstrate that the beam sets obtained via our method are superior quality. PMID:23459411

Incorporation of Fixed Installation Costs into Optimization of Groundwater Remediation with a New Efficient Surrogate Nonlinear Mixed Integer Optimization Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shoemaker, Christine; Wan, Ying

2016-04-01

Optimization of nonlinear water resources management issues which have a mixture of fixed (e.g. construction cost for a well) and variable (e.g. cost per gallon of water pumped) costs has been not well addressed because prior algorithms for the resulting nonlinear mixed integer problems have required many groundwater simulations (with different configurations of decision variable), especially when the solution space is multimodal. In particular heuristic methods like genetic algorithms have often been used in the water resources area, but they require so many groundwater simulations that only small systems have been solved. Hence there is a need to have a method that reduces the number of expensive groundwater simulations. A recently published algorithm for nonlinear mixed integer programming using surrogates was shown in this study to greatly reduce the computational effort for obtaining accurate answers to problems involving fixed costs for well construction as well as variable costs for pumping because of a substantial reduction in the number of groundwater simulations required to obtain an accurate answer. Results are presented for a US EPA hazardous waste site. The nonlinear mixed integer surrogate algorithm is general and can be used on other problems arising in hydrology with open source codes in Matlab and python ("pySOT" in Bitbucket).

Surrogacy Assessment Using Principal Stratification and a Gaussian Copula Model

PubMed Central

Taylor, J.M.G.; Elliott, M.R.

2014-01-01

In clinical trials, a surrogate outcome (S) can be measured before the outcome of interest (T) and may provide early information regarding the treatment (Z) effect on T. Many methods of surrogacy validation rely on models for the conditional distribution of T given Z and S. However, S is a post-randomization variable, and unobserved, simultaneous predictors of S and T may exist, resulting in a non-causal interpretation. Frangakis and Rubin1 developed the concept of principal surrogacy, stratifying on the joint distribution of the surrogate marker under treatment and control to assess the association between the causal effects of treatment on the marker and the causal effects of treatment on the clinical outcome. Working within the principal surrogacy framework, we address the scenario of an ordinal categorical variable as a surrogate for a censored failure time true endpoint. A Gaussian copula model is used to model the joint distribution of the potential outcomes of T, given the potential outcomes of S. Because the proposed model cannot be fully identified from the data, we use a Bayesian estimation approach with prior distributions consistent with reasonable assumptions in the surrogacy assessment setting. The method is applied to data from a colorectal cancer clinical trial, previously analyzed by Burzykowski et al..2 PMID:24947559

Head Circumference as a Useful Surrogate for Intracranial Volume in Older Adults

PubMed Central

Hshieh, Tammy T.; Fox, Meaghan L.; Kosar, Cyrus M.; Cavallari, Michele; Guttmann, Charles R.G.; Alsop, David; Marcantonio, Edward R.; Schmitt, Eva M.; Jones, Richard N.; Inouye, Sharon K.

2015-01-01

Background Intracranial volume (ICV) has been proposed as a measure of maximum lifetime brain size. Accurate ICV measures require neuroimaging which is not always feasible for epidemiologic investigations. We examined head circumference as a useful surrogate for intracranial volume in older adults. Methods 99 older adults underwent Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). ICV was measured by Statistical Parametric Mapping 8 (SPM8) software or Functional MRI of the Brain Software Library (FSL) extraction with manual editing, typically considered the gold standard. Head circumferences were determined using standardized tape measurement. We examined estimated correlation coefficients between head circumference and the two MRI-based ICV measurements. Results Head circumference and ICV by SPM8 were moderately correlated (overall r=0.73, men r=0.67, women r=0.63). Head circumference and ICV by FSL were also moderately correlated (overall r=0.69, men r=0.63, women r=0.49). Conclusions Head circumference measurement was strongly correlated with MRI-derived ICV. Our study presents a simple method to approximate ICV among older patients, which may prove useful as a surrogate for cognitive reserve in large scale epidemiologic studies of cognitive outcomes. This study also suggests the stability of head circumference correlation with ICV throughout the lifespan. PMID:26631180

Surrogacy assessment using principal stratification and a Gaussian copula model.

PubMed

Conlon, Asc; Taylor, Jmg; Elliott, M R

2017-02-01

In clinical trials, a surrogate outcome ( S) can be measured before the outcome of interest ( T) and may provide early information regarding the treatment ( Z) effect on T. Many methods of surrogacy validation rely on models for the conditional distribution of T given Z and S. However, S is a post-randomization variable, and unobserved, simultaneous predictors of S and T may exist, resulting in a non-causal interpretation. Frangakis and Rubin developed the concept of principal surrogacy, stratifying on the joint distribution of the surrogate marker under treatment and control to assess the association between the causal effects of treatment on the marker and the causal effects of treatment on the clinical outcome. Working within the principal surrogacy framework, we address the scenario of an ordinal categorical variable as a surrogate for a censored failure time true endpoint. A Gaussian copula model is used to model the joint distribution of the potential outcomes of T, given the potential outcomes of S. Because the proposed model cannot be fully identified from the data, we use a Bayesian estimation approach with prior distributions consistent with reasonable assumptions in the surrogacy assessment setting. The method is applied to data from a colorectal cancer clinical trial, previously analyzed by Burzykowski et al.

Decreased N-Acetyl Aspartate/Myo-Inositol Ratio in the Posterior Cingulate Cortex Shown by Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy May Be One of the Risk Markers of Preclinical Alzheimer’s Disease: A 7-Year Follow-Up Study

PubMed Central

Waragai, Masaaki; Moriya, Masaru; Nojo, Takeshi

2017-01-01

Although molecular positron emission tomography imaging of amyloid and tau proteins can facilitate the detection of preclinical Alzheimer’s disease (AD) pathology, it is not useful in clinical practice. More practical surrogate markers for preclinical AD would provide valuable tools. Thus, we sought to validate the utility of conventional magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) as a screening method for preclinical AD. A total of 289 older participants who were cognitively normal at baseline were clinically followed up for analysis of MRS metabolites, including N-acetyl aspartate (NAA) and myo-inositol (MI) in the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC) for 7 years. The 289 participants were retrospectively divided into five groups 7 years after baseline: 200 (69%) remained cognitively normal; 53 (18%) developed mild cognitive impairment (MCI); 21 (7%) developed AD; eight (2%) developed Parkinson’s disease with normal cognition, and seven (2%) developed dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB). The NAA/MI ratios of the PCC in the AD, MCI, and DLB groups were significantly decreased compared with participants who maintained normal cognition from baseline to 7 years after baseline. MMSE scores 7 years after baseline were significantly correlated with MI/Cr and NAA/MI ratios in the PCC. These results suggest that cognitively normal elderly subjects with low NAA/MI ratios in the PCC might be at risk of progression to clinical AD. Thus, the NAA/MI ratio in the PCC measured with conventional 1H MRS should be reconsidered as a possible adjunctive screening marker of preclinical AD in clinical practice. PMID:28968236

Surrogate Plant Data Base : Volume 1. Introduction, Appendix A : The Development of Surrogate Plant Data ; Appendix B : Application of the Surrogate .

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1983-03-01

This four volume report consists of a data base describing "surrogate" automobile and truck manufacturing plants developed as part of a methodology for evaluating capital investment requirements in new manufacturing facilities to build new fleets of ...

26 CFR 1.7874-2T - Surrogate foreign corporation (temporary).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 13 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Surrogate foreign corporation (temporary). 1... Surrogate foreign corporation (temporary). (a) Scope. This section provides rules for determining whether a foreign corporation shall be treated as a surrogate foreign corporation under section 7874(a)(2)(B...