Survival analysis using inverse probability of treatment weighted methods based on the generalized propensity score.

PubMed

Sugihara, Masahiro

2010-01-01

In survival analysis, treatment effects are commonly evaluated based on survival curves and hazard ratios as causal treatment effects. In observational studies, these estimates may be biased due to confounding factors. The inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW) method based on the propensity score is one of the approaches utilized to adjust for confounding factors between binary treatment groups. As a generalization of this methodology, we developed an exact formula for an IPTW log-rank test based on the generalized propensity score for survival data. This makes it possible to compare the group differences of IPTW Kaplan-Meier estimators of survival curves using an IPTW log-rank test for multi-valued treatments. As causal treatment effects, the hazard ratio can be estimated using the IPTW approach. If the treatments correspond to ordered levels of a treatment, the proposed method can be easily extended to the analysis of treatment effect patterns with contrast statistics. In this paper, the proposed method is illustrated with data from the Kyushu Lipid Intervention Study (KLIS), which investigated the primary preventive effects of pravastatin on coronary heart disease (CHD). The results of the proposed method suggested that pravastatin treatment reduces the risk of CHD and that compliance to pravastatin treatment is important for the prevention of CHD. (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Survival analysis in hematologic malignancies: recommendations for clinicians

PubMed Central

Delgado, Julio; Pereira, Arturo; Villamor, Neus; López-Guillermo, Armando; Rozman, Ciril

2014-01-01

The widespread availability of statistical packages has undoubtedly helped hematologists worldwide in the analysis of their data, but has also led to the inappropriate use of statistical methods. In this article, we review some basic concepts of survival analysis and also make recommendations about how and when to perform each particular test using SPSS, Stata and R. In particular, we describe a simple way of defining cut-off points for continuous variables and the appropriate and inappropriate uses of the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazard regression models. We also provide practical advice on how to check the proportional hazards assumption and briefly review the role of relative survival and multiple imputation. PMID:25176982

A spatial scan statistic for survival data based on Weibull distribution.

PubMed

Bhatt, Vijaya; Tiwari, Neeraj

2014-05-20

The spatial scan statistic has been developed as a geographical cluster detection analysis tool for different types of data sets such as Bernoulli, Poisson, ordinal, normal and exponential. We propose a scan statistic for survival data based on Weibull distribution. It may also be used for other survival distributions, such as exponential, gamma, and log normal. The proposed method is applied on the survival data of tuberculosis patients for the years 2004-2005 in Nainital district of Uttarakhand, India. Simulation studies reveal that the proposed method performs well for different survival distribution functions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cancer survival analysis using semi-supervised learning method based on Cox and AFT models with L1/2 regularization.

PubMed

Liang, Yong; Chai, Hua; Liu, Xiao-Ying; Xu, Zong-Ben; Zhang, Hai; Leung, Kwong-Sak

2016-03-01

One of the most important objectives of the clinical cancer research is to diagnose cancer more accurately based on the patients' gene expression profiles. Both Cox proportional hazards model (Cox) and accelerated failure time model (AFT) have been widely adopted to the high risk and low risk classification or survival time prediction for the patients' clinical treatment. Nevertheless, two main dilemmas limit the accuracy of these prediction methods. One is that the small sample size and censored data remain a bottleneck for training robust and accurate Cox classification model. In addition to that, similar phenotype tumours and prognoses are actually completely different diseases at the genotype and molecular level. Thus, the utility of the AFT model for the survival time prediction is limited when such biological differences of the diseases have not been previously identified. To try to overcome these two main dilemmas, we proposed a novel semi-supervised learning method based on the Cox and AFT models to accurately predict the treatment risk and the survival time of the patients. Moreover, we adopted the efficient L1/2 regularization approach in the semi-supervised learning method to select the relevant genes, which are significantly associated with the disease. The results of the simulation experiments show that the semi-supervised learning model can significant improve the predictive performance of Cox and AFT models in survival analysis. The proposed procedures have been successfully applied to four real microarray gene expression and artificial evaluation datasets. The advantages of our proposed semi-supervised learning method include: 1) significantly increase the available training samples from censored data; 2) high capability for identifying the survival risk classes of patient in Cox model; 3) high predictive accuracy for patients' survival time in AFT model; 4) strong capability of the relevant biomarker selection. Consequently, our proposed semi-supervised learning model is one more appropriate tool for survival analysis in clinical cancer research.

Pooled Analysis of Long-Term Survival Data From Phase II and Phase III Trials of Ipilimumab in Unresectable or Metastatic Melanoma

PubMed Central

Schadendorf, Dirk; Hodi, F. Stephen; Robert, Caroline; Weber, Jeffrey S.; Margolin, Kim; Hamid, Omid; Patt, Debra; Chen, Tai-Tsang; Berman, David M.; Wolchok, Jedd D.

2015-01-01

Purpose To provide a more precise estimate of long-term survival observed for ipilimumab-treated patients with advanced melanoma, we performed a pooled analysis of overall survival (OS) data from multiple studies. Methods The primary analysis pooled OS data for 1,861 patients from 10 prospective and two retrospective studies of ipilimumab, including two phase III trials. Patients were previously treated (n = 1,257) or treatment naive (n = 604), and the majority of patients received ipilimumab 3 mg/kg (n = 965) or 10 mg/kg (n = 706). We also conducted a secondary analysis of OS data (n = 4,846) with an additional 2,985 patients from an expanded access program. OS rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results Among 1,861 patients, median OS was 11.4 months (95% CI, 10.7 to 12.1 months), which included 254 patients with at least 3 years of survival follow-up. The survival curve began to plateau around year 3, with follow-up of up to 10 years. Three-year survival rates were 22%, 26%, and 20% for all patients, treatment-naive patients, and previously treated patients, respectively. Including data from the expanded access program, median OS was 9.5 months (95% CI, 9.0 to 10.0 months), with a plateau at 21% in the survival curve beginning around year 3. Conclusion To our knowledge, this is the largest analysis of OS to date for ipilimumab-treated patients with advanced melanoma. We observed a plateau in the survival curve, beginning at approximately 3 years, which was independent of prior therapy or ipilimumab dose. These data add to the evidence supporting the durability of long-term survival in ipilimumab-treated patients with advanced melanoma. PMID:25667295

Smart Extraction and Analysis System for Clinical Research.

PubMed

Afzal, Muhammad; Hussain, Maqbool; Khan, Wajahat Ali; Ali, Taqdir; Jamshed, Arif; Lee, Sungyoung

2017-05-01

With the increasing use of electronic health records (EHRs), there is a growing need to expand the utilization of EHR data to support clinical research. The key challenge in achieving this goal is the unavailability of smart systems and methods to overcome the issue of data preparation, structuring, and sharing for smooth clinical research. We developed a robust analysis system called the smart extraction and analysis system (SEAS) that consists of two subsystems: (1) the information extraction system (IES), for extracting information from clinical documents, and (2) the survival analysis system (SAS), for a descriptive and predictive analysis to compile the survival statistics and predict the future chance of survivability. The IES subsystem is based on a novel permutation-based pattern recognition method that extracts information from unstructured clinical documents. Similarly, the SAS subsystem is based on a classification and regression tree (CART)-based prediction model for survival analysis. SEAS is evaluated and validated on a real-world case study of head and neck cancer. The overall information extraction accuracy of the system for semistructured text is recorded at 99%, while that for unstructured text is 97%. Furthermore, the automated, unstructured information extraction has reduced the average time spent on manual data entry by 75%, without compromising the accuracy of the system. Moreover, around 88% of patients are found in a terminal or dead state for the highest clinical stage of disease (level IV). Similarly, there is an ∼36% probability of a patient being alive if at least one of the lifestyle risk factors was positive. We presented our work on the development of SEAS to replace costly and time-consuming manual methods with smart automatic extraction of information and survival prediction methods. SEAS has reduced the time and energy of human resources spent unnecessarily on manual tasks.

["That flesh, pink and perishable": analysis of disease-free survival analysis in breast cancer in Gipuzkoa (Spain) in the presence of competing risks].

PubMed

Martínez-Camblor, Pablo; Larrañaga, Nerea; Sarasqueta, Cristina; Mitxelena, María José; Basterretxea, Mikel

2009-01-01

To analyze time of disease-free survival and relative survival in women diagnosed with breast cancer in the province of Gipuzkoa within the context of competing risks by assessing differences between the direct use of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement method on the one hand, and relative survival on the other. All registered breast cancer cases in Gipuzkoa in 1995 and 1996 with stages other than stage IV were included. An 8-year follow-up for recurrence and a 10-year follow-up for survival were performed. Time of disease-free survival was studied by the multiple decrement model. Observed survival and survival corrected by the expected mortality in the population (relative survival) were also studied. Estimation of the probability of recurrence at 8 years with the multiple decrement method was 8.8% lower than that obtained with the Kaplan-Meier method. The difference between the observed and relative survival rates at 10 years was 10.8%. Both results show how, in this case, the Kaplan-Meier estimator overestimates both the probability of recurrence and that of mortality from the disease. Two issues are often overlooked when performing survival analyses: firstly, because of the lack of independence between survival time and censoring time, the results obtained by the Kaplan-Meier estimator are uninterpretable; secondly, it is an incontrovertible fact that one way or another, everyone causes failures. In this approach, survival analyses must take into account the probability of failure in the general population of reference. The results obtained in this study show that superficial use of the Kaplan Meier estimator overestimates both the probability of recurrence and that of mortality caused by the disease.

A survival tree method for the analysis of discrete event times in clinical and epidemiological studies.

PubMed

Schmid, Matthias; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Hoerauf, Achim; Tutz, Gerhard

2016-02-28

Survival trees are a popular alternative to parametric survival modeling when there are interactions between the predictor variables or when the aim is to stratify patients into prognostic subgroups. A limitation of classical survival tree methodology is that most algorithms for tree construction are designed for continuous outcome variables. Hence, classical methods might not be appropriate if failure time data are measured on a discrete time scale (as is often the case in longitudinal studies where data are collected, e.g., quarterly or yearly). To address this issue, we develop a method for discrete survival tree construction. The proposed technique is based on the result that the likelihood of a discrete survival model is equivalent to the likelihood of a regression model for binary outcome data. Hence, we modify tree construction methods for binary outcomes such that they result in optimized partitions for the estimation of discrete hazard functions. By applying the proposed method to data from a randomized trial in patients with filarial lymphedema, we demonstrate how discrete survival trees can be used to identify clinically relevant patient groups with similar survival behavior. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dynamic identification of growth and survival kinetic parameters of microorganisms in foods

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Inverse analysis is a mathematical method used in predictive microbiology to determine the kinetic parameters of microbial growth and survival in foods. The traditional approach in inverse analysis relies on isothermal experiments that are time-consuming and labor-intensive, and errors are accumula...

Bayesian survival analysis in clinical trials: What methods are used in practice?

PubMed

Brard, Caroline; Le Teuff, Gwénaël; Le Deley, Marie-Cécile; Hampson, Lisa V

2017-02-01

Background Bayesian statistics are an appealing alternative to the traditional frequentist approach to designing, analysing, and reporting of clinical trials, especially in rare diseases. Time-to-event endpoints are widely used in many medical fields. There are additional complexities to designing Bayesian survival trials which arise from the need to specify a model for the survival distribution. The objective of this article was to critically review the use and reporting of Bayesian methods in survival trials. Methods A systematic review of clinical trials using Bayesian survival analyses was performed through PubMed and Web of Science databases. This was complemented by a full text search of the online repositories of pre-selected journals. Cost-effectiveness, dose-finding studies, meta-analyses, and methodological papers using clinical trials were excluded. Results In total, 28 articles met the inclusion criteria, 25 were original reports of clinical trials and 3 were re-analyses of a clinical trial. Most trials were in oncology (n = 25), were randomised controlled (n = 21) phase III trials (n = 13), and half considered a rare disease (n = 13). Bayesian approaches were used for monitoring in 14 trials and for the final analysis only in 14 trials. In the latter case, Bayesian survival analyses were used for the primary analysis in four cases, for the secondary analysis in seven cases, and for the trial re-analysis in three cases. Overall, 12 articles reported fitting Bayesian regression models (semi-parametric, n = 3; parametric, n = 9). Prior distributions were often incompletely reported: 20 articles did not define the prior distribution used for the parameter of interest. Over half of the trials used only non-informative priors for monitoring and the final analysis (n = 12) when it was specified. Indeed, no articles fitting Bayesian regression models placed informative priors on the parameter of interest. The prior for the treatment effect was based on historical data in only four trials. Decision rules were pre-defined in eight cases when trials used Bayesian monitoring, and in only one case when trials adopted a Bayesian approach to the final analysis. Conclusion Few trials implemented a Bayesian survival analysis and few incorporated external data into priors. There is scope to improve the quality of reporting of Bayesian methods in survival trials. Extension of the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials statement for reporting Bayesian clinical trials is recommended.

Survival analysis, or what to do with upper limits in astronomical surveys

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Isobe, Takashi; Feigelson, Eric D.

1986-01-01

A field of applied statistics called survival analysis has been developed over several decades to deal with censored data, which occur in astronomical surveys when objects are too faint to be detected. How these methods can assist in the statistical interpretation of astronomical data are reviewed.

Identification by random forest method of HLA class I amino acid substitutions associated with lower survival at day 100 in unrelated donor hematopoietic cell transplantation.

PubMed

Marino, S R; Lin, S; Maiers, M; Haagenson, M; Spellman, S; Klein, J P; Binkowski, T A; Lee, S J; van Besien, K

2012-02-01

The identification of important amino acid substitutions associated with low survival in hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is hampered by the large number of observed substitutions compared with the small number of patients available for analysis. Random forest analysis is designed to address these limitations. We studied 2107 HCT recipients with good or intermediate risk hematological malignancies to identify HLA class I amino acid substitutions associated with reduced survival at day 100 post transplant. Random forest analysis and traditional univariate and multivariate analyses were used. Random forest analysis identified amino acid substitutions in 33 positions that were associated with reduced 100 day survival, including HLA-A 9, 43, 62, 63, 76, 77, 95, 97, 114, 116, 152, 156, 166 and 167; HLA-B 97, 109, 116 and 156; and HLA-C 6, 9, 11, 14, 21, 66, 77, 80, 95, 97, 99, 116, 156, 163 and 173. In all 13 had been previously reported by other investigators using classical biostatistical approaches. Using the same data set, traditional multivariate logistic regression identified only five amino acid substitutions associated with lower day 100 survival. Random forest analysis is a novel statistical methodology for analysis of HLA mismatching and outcome studies, capable of identifying important amino acid substitutions missed by other methods.

Long-Term Pancreas Allograft Survival in Simultaneous Pancreas-Kidney Transplantation by Era

PubMed Central

Waki, Kayo; Terasaki, Paul I.; Kadowaki, Takashi

2010-01-01

OBJECTIVE To determine whether short-term improvement in pancreas graft survival with simultaneous pancreas-kidney (SPK) transplants translated into improved long-term survival, then to examine the implications of that determination. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We analyzed data for 14,311 diabetic patients who received a first SPK transplant between October 1987 and November 2007, using Kaplan-Meier analysis for graft survival rates and Cox regression analysis for year-of-transplant effect. RESULTS Overall, from 1995 to 2004, 5-year pancreas graft survival stayed about the same (70–71%). Limiting analysis to grafts that survived more than 1 year, 5-year survival from 1987 to 2004 ranged from 80 to 84%. With 1987–1989 as reference, the adjusted hazard ratio for graft failure by year of transplant increased to 1.49 (95% CI 0.97–2.30) in 2000–2004. CONCLUSIONS Long-term pancreas graft survival has remained unchanged despite the dramatic decreases in technical failures and early acute rejection rates that have contributed to prolonged SPK graft survival. PMID:20460444

Adjuvant radiation therapy and lymphadenectomy in esophageal cancer: a SEER database analysis.

PubMed

Shridhar, Ravi; Weber, Jill; Hoffe, Sarah E; Almhanna, Khaldoun; Karl, Richard; Meredith, Kenneth

2013-08-01

This study seeks to determine the effects of postoperative radiation therapy and lymphadenectomy on survival in esophageal cancer. An analysis of patients with surgically resected esophageal cancer from the SEER database between 2004 and 2008 was performed to determine association of adjuvant radiation and lymph node dissection on survival. Survival curves were calculated according to the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank analysis. Multivariate analysis (MVA) was performed by the Cox proportional hazard model. We identified 2109 patients who met inclusion criteria. Radiation was associated with increased survival in stage III patients (p = 0.005), no benefit in stage II (p = 0.075) and IV (p = 0.913) patients, and decreased survival in stage I patients (p < 0.0001). Univariate analysis revealed that radiation therapy was associated with a survival benefit node positive (N1) patients while it was associated with a detriment in survival for node negative (N0) patients. Removing >12 and >15 lymph nodes was associated with increased survival in N0 patients, while removing >8, >10, >12, >15, and >20 lymph nodes was associated with a survival benefit in N1 patients. MVA revealed that age, gender, tumor and nodal stage, tumor location, and number of lymph nodes removed were prognostic for survival in N0 patients. In N1 patients, MVA showed the age, tumor stage, number of lymph nodes removed, and radiation were prognostic for survival. The number of lymph nodes removed in esophageal cancer is associated with increased survival. The benefit of adjuvant radiation therapy on survival in esophageal cancer is limited to N1 patients.

Integration of multimodal RNA-seq data for prediction of kidney cancer survival

PubMed Central

Schwartzi, Matt; Parkl, Martin; Phanl, John H.; Wang., May D.

2016-01-01

Kidney cancer is of prominent concern in modern medicine. Predicting patient survival is critical to patient awareness and developing a proper treatment regimens. Previous prediction models built upon molecular feature analysis are limited to just gene expression data. In this study we investigate the difference in predicting five year survival between unimodal and multimodal analysis of RNA-seq data from gene, exon, junction, and isoform modalities. Our preliminary findings report higher predictive accuracy-as measured by area under the ROC curve (AUC)-for multimodal learning when compared to unimodal learning with both support vector machine (SVM) and k-nearest neighbor (KNN) methods. The results of this study justify further research on the use of multimodal RNA-seq data to predict survival for other cancer types using a larger sample size and additional machine learning methods. PMID:27532026

Evaluating disease management program effectiveness: an introduction to survival analysis.

PubMed

Linden, Ariel; Adams, John L; Roberts, Nancy

2004-01-01

Currently, the most widely used method in the disease management industry for evaluating program effectiveness is the "total population approach." This model is a pretest-posttest design, with the most basic limitation being that without a control group, there may be sources of bias and/or competing extraneous confounding factors that offer plausible rationale explaining the change from baseline. Survival analysis allows for the inclusion of data from censored cases, those subjects who either "survived" the program without experiencing the event (e.g., achievement of target clinical levels, hospitalization) or left the program prematurely, due to disenrollement from the health plan or program, or were lost to follow-up. Additionally, independent variables may be included in the model to help explain the variability in the outcome measure. In order to maximize the potential of this statistical method, validity of the model and research design must be assured. This paper reviews survival analysis as an alternative, and more appropriate, approach to evaluating DM program effectiveness than the current total population approach.

Multilevel mixed effects parametric survival models using adaptive Gauss-Hermite quadrature with application to recurrent events and individual participant data meta-analysis.

PubMed

Crowther, Michael J; Look, Maxime P; Riley, Richard D

2014-09-28

Multilevel mixed effects survival models are used in the analysis of clustered survival data, such as repeated events, multicenter clinical trials, and individual participant data (IPD) meta-analyses, to investigate heterogeneity in baseline risk and covariate effects. In this paper, we extend parametric frailty models including the exponential, Weibull and Gompertz proportional hazards (PH) models and the log logistic, log normal, and generalized gamma accelerated failure time models to allow any number of normally distributed random effects. Furthermore, we extend the flexible parametric survival model of Royston and Parmar, modeled on the log-cumulative hazard scale using restricted cubic splines, to include random effects while also allowing for non-PH (time-dependent effects). Maximum likelihood is used to estimate the models utilizing adaptive or nonadaptive Gauss-Hermite quadrature. The methods are evaluated through simulation studies representing clinically plausible scenarios of a multicenter trial and IPD meta-analysis, showing good performance of the estimation method. The flexible parametric mixed effects model is illustrated using a dataset of patients with kidney disease and repeated times to infection and an IPD meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies in patients with breast cancer. User-friendly Stata software is provided to implement the methods. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Ortholog-based screening and identification of genes related to intracellular survival.

PubMed

Yang, Xiaowen; Wang, Jiawei; Bing, Guoxia; Bie, Pengfei; De, Yanyan; Lyu, Yanli; Wu, Qingmin

2018-04-20

Bioinformatics and comparative genomics analysis methods were used to predict unknown pathogen genes based on homology with identified or functionally clustered genes. In this study, the genes of common pathogens were analyzed to screen and identify genes associated with intracellular survival through sequence similarity, phylogenetic tree analysis and the λ-Red recombination system test method. The total 38,952 protein-coding genes of common pathogens were divided into 19,775 clusters. As demonstrated through a COG analysis, information storage and processing genes might play an important role intracellular survival. Only 19 clusters were present in facultative intracellular pathogens, and not all were present in extracellular pathogens. Construction of a phylogenetic tree selected 18 of these 19 clusters. Comparisons with the DEG database and previous research revealed that seven other clusters are considered essential gene clusters and that seven other clusters are associated with intracellular survival. Moreover, this study confirmed that clusters screened by orthologs with similar function could be replaced with an approved uvrY gene and its orthologs, and the results revealed that the usg gene is associated with intracellular survival. The study improves the current understanding of intracellular pathogens characteristics and allows further exploration of the intracellular survival-related gene modules in these pathogens. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Statistical methods for astronomical data with upper limits. I - Univariate distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feigelson, E. D.; Nelson, P. I.

1985-01-01

The statistical treatment of univariate censored data is discussed. A heuristic derivation of the Kaplan-Meier maximum-likelihood estimator from first principles is presented which results in an expression amenable to analytic error analysis. Methods for comparing two or more censored samples are given along with simple computational examples, stressing the fact that most astronomical problems involve upper limits while the standard mathematical methods require lower limits. The application of univariate survival analysis to six data sets in the recent astrophysical literature is described, and various aspects of the use of survival analysis in astronomy, such as the limitations of various two-sample tests and the role of parametric modelling, are discussed.

Applying survival analysis to a large-scale forest inventory for assessment of tree mortality in Minnesota

Treesearch

C.W. Woodall; P.L. Grambsch; W. Thomas

2005-01-01

Tree mortality has traditionally been assessed in forest inventories through summaries of mortality by location, species, and causal agents. Although these methods have historically constituted the majority of tree mortality summarizations, they have had limited use in assessing mortality trends and dynamics. This study proposed a novel method of applying survival...

Interaction Analysis of Longevity Interventions Using Survival Curves.

PubMed

Nowak, Stefan; Neidhart, Johannes; Szendro, Ivan G; Rzezonka, Jonas; Marathe, Rahul; Krug, Joachim

2018-01-06

A long-standing problem in ageing research is to understand how different factors contributing to longevity should be expected to act in combination under the assumption that they are independent. Standard interaction analysis compares the extension of mean lifespan achieved by a combination of interventions to the prediction under an additive or multiplicative null model, but neither model is fundamentally justified. Moreover, the target of longevity interventions is not mean life span but the entire survival curve. Here we formulate a mathematical approach for predicting the survival curve resulting from a combination of two independent interventions based on the survival curves of the individual treatments, and quantify interaction between interventions as the deviation from this prediction. We test the method on a published data set comprising survival curves for all combinations of four different longevity interventions in Caenorhabditis elegans . We find that interactions are generally weak even when the standard analysis indicates otherwise.

Interaction Analysis of Longevity Interventions Using Survival Curves

PubMed Central

Nowak, Stefan; Neidhart, Johannes; Szendro, Ivan G.; Rzezonka, Jonas; Marathe, Rahul; Krug, Joachim

2018-01-01

A long-standing problem in ageing research is to understand how different factors contributing to longevity should be expected to act in combination under the assumption that they are independent. Standard interaction analysis compares the extension of mean lifespan achieved by a combination of interventions to the prediction under an additive or multiplicative null model, but neither model is fundamentally justified. Moreover, the target of longevity interventions is not mean life span but the entire survival curve. Here we formulate a mathematical approach for predicting the survival curve resulting from a combination of two independent interventions based on the survival curves of the individual treatments, and quantify interaction between interventions as the deviation from this prediction. We test the method on a published data set comprising survival curves for all combinations of four different longevity interventions in Caenorhabditis elegans. We find that interactions are generally weak even when the standard analysis indicates otherwise. PMID:29316622

Application of survival analysis methodology to the quantitative analysis of LC-MS proteomics data.

PubMed

Tekwe, Carmen D; Carroll, Raymond J; Dabney, Alan R

2012-08-01

Protein abundance in quantitative proteomics is often based on observed spectral features derived from liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (LC-MS) or LC-MS/MS experiments. Peak intensities are largely non-normal in distribution. Furthermore, LC-MS-based proteomics data frequently have large proportions of missing peak intensities due to censoring mechanisms on low-abundance spectral features. Recognizing that the observed peak intensities detected with the LC-MS method are all positive, skewed and often left-censored, we propose using survival methodology to carry out differential expression analysis of proteins. Various standard statistical techniques including non-parametric tests such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney rank sum tests, and the parametric survival model and accelerated failure time-model with log-normal, log-logistic and Weibull distributions were used to detect any differentially expressed proteins. The statistical operating characteristics of each method are explored using both real and simulated datasets. Survival methods generally have greater statistical power than standard differential expression methods when the proportion of missing protein level data is 5% or more. In particular, the AFT models we consider consistently achieve greater statistical power than standard testing procedures, with the discrepancy widening with increasing missingness in the proportions. The testing procedures discussed in this article can all be performed using readily available software such as R. The R codes are provided as supplemental materials. ctekwe@stat.tamu.edu.

Impact of triple-negative phenotype on prognosis of patients with breast cancer brain metastases.

PubMed

Xu, Zhiyuan; Schlesinger, David; Toulmin, Sushila; Rich, Tyvin; Sheehan, Jason

2012-11-01

To elucidate survival times and identify potential prognostic factors in patients with triple-negative (TN) phenotype who harbored brain metastases arising from breast cancer and who underwent stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). A total of 103 breast cancer patients with brain metastases were treated with SRS and then studied retrospectively. Twenty-four patients (23.3%) were TN. Survival times were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, with a log-rank test computing the survival time difference between groups. Univariate and multivariate analyses to predict potential prognostic factors were performed using a Cox proportional hazard regression model. The presence of TN phenotype was associated with worse survival times, including overall survival after the diagnosis of primary breast cancer (43 months vs. 82 months), neurologic survival after the diagnosis of intracranial metastases, and radiosurgical survival after SRS, with median survival times being 13 months vs. 25 months and 6 months vs. 16 months, respectively (p < 0.002 in all three comparisons). On multivariate analysis, radiosurgical survival benefit was associated with non-TN status and lower recursive partitioning analysis class at the initial SRS. The TN phenotype represents a significant adverse prognostic factor with respect to overall survival, neurologic survival, and radiosurgical survival in breast cancer patients with intracranial metastasis. Recursive partitioning analysis class also served as an important and independent prognostic factor. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inference for the effect of treatment on survival probability in randomized trials with noncompliance and administrative censoring.

PubMed

Nie, Hui; Cheng, Jing; Small, Dylan S

2011-12-01

In many clinical studies with a survival outcome, administrative censoring occurs when follow-up ends at a prespecified date and many subjects are still alive. An additional complication in some trials is that there is noncompliance with the assigned treatment. For this setting, we study the estimation of the causal effect of treatment on survival probability up to a given time point among those subjects who would comply with the assignment to both treatment and control. We first discuss the standard instrumental variable (IV) method for survival outcomes and parametric maximum likelihood methods, and then develop an efficient plug-in nonparametric empirical maximum likelihood estimation (PNEMLE) approach. The PNEMLE method does not make any assumptions on outcome distributions, and makes use of the mixture structure in the data to gain efficiency over the standard IV method. Theoretical results of the PNEMLE are derived and the method is illustrated by an analysis of data from a breast cancer screening trial. From our limited mortality analysis with administrative censoring times 10 years into the follow-up, we find a significant benefit of screening is present after 4 years (at the 5% level) and this persists at 10 years follow-up. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

Adjusting survival estimates for premature transmitter failure: A case study from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holbrook, Christopher M.; Perry, Russell W.; Brandes, Patricia L.; Adams, Noah S.

2013-01-01

In telemetry studies, premature tag failure causes negative bias in fish survival estimates because tag failure is interpreted as fish mortality. We used mark-recapture modeling to adjust estimates of fish survival for a previous study where premature tag failure was documented. High rates of tag failure occurred during the Vernalis Adaptive Management Plan’s (VAMP) 2008 study to estimate survival of fall-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) during migration through the San Joaquin River and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California. Due to a high rate of tag failure, the observed travel time distribution was likely negatively biased, resulting in an underestimate of tag survival probability in this study. Consequently, the bias-adjustment method resulted in only a small increase in estimated fish survival when the observed travel time distribution was used to estimate the probability of tag survival. Since the bias-adjustment failed to remove bias, we used historical travel time data and conducted a sensitivity analysis to examine how fish survival might have varied across a range of tag survival probabilities. Our analysis suggested that fish survival estimates were low (95% confidence bounds range from 0.052 to 0.227) over a wide range of plausible tag survival probabilities (0.48–1.00), and this finding is consistent with other studies in this system. When tags fail at a high rate, available methods to adjust for the bias may perform poorly. Our example highlights the importance of evaluating the tag life assumption during survival studies, and presents a simple framework for evaluating adjusted survival estimates when auxiliary travel time data are available.

Using multiple classifiers for predicting the risk of endovascular aortic aneurysm repair re-intervention through hybrid feature selection.

PubMed

Attallah, Omneya; Karthikesalingam, Alan; Holt, Peter Je; Thompson, Matthew M; Sayers, Rob; Bown, Matthew J; Choke, Eddie C; Ma, Xianghong

2017-11-01

Feature selection is essential in medical area; however, its process becomes complicated with the presence of censoring which is the unique character of survival analysis. Most survival feature selection methods are based on Cox's proportional hazard model, though machine learning classifiers are preferred. They are less employed in survival analysis due to censoring which prevents them from directly being used to survival data. Among the few work that employed machine learning classifiers, partial logistic artificial neural network with auto-relevance determination is a well-known method that deals with censoring and perform feature selection for survival data. However, it depends on data replication to handle censoring which leads to unbalanced and biased prediction results especially in highly censored data. Other methods cannot deal with high censoring. Therefore, in this article, a new hybrid feature selection method is proposed which presents a solution to high level censoring. It combines support vector machine, neural network, and K-nearest neighbor classifiers using simple majority voting and a new weighted majority voting method based on survival metric to construct a multiple classifier system. The new hybrid feature selection process uses multiple classifier system as a wrapper method and merges it with iterated feature ranking filter method to further reduce features. Two endovascular aortic repair datasets containing 91% censored patients collected from two centers were used to construct a multicenter study to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach. The results showed the proposed technique outperformed individual classifiers and variable selection methods based on Cox's model such as Akaike and Bayesian information criterions and least absolute shrinkage and selector operator in p values of the log-rank test, sensitivity, and concordance index. This indicates that the proposed classifier is more powerful in correctly predicting the risk of re-intervention enabling doctor in selecting patients' future follow-up plan.

Effectiveness of Radiotherapy for Elderly Patients With Glioblastoma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scott, Jacob; Tsai, Ya-Yu; Chinnaiyan, Prakash

Purpose: Radiotherapy plays a central role in the definitive treatment of glioblastoma. However, the optimal management of elderly patients with glioblastoma remains controversial, as the relative benefit in this patient population is unclear. To better understand the role that radiation plays in the treatment of glioblastoma in the elderly, we analyzed factors influencing patient survival using a large population-based registry. Methods and Materials: A total of 2,836 patients more than 70 years of age diagnosed with glioblastoma between 1993 and 2005 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry. Demographic and clinical variables used in the analysismore » included gender, ethnicity, tumor size, age at diagnosis, surgery, and radiotherapy. Cancer-specific survival and overall survival were evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed using Cox regression. Results: Radiotherapy was administered in 64% of these patients, and surgery was performed in 68%. Among 2,836 patients, 46% received surgery and radiotherapy, 22% underwent surgery only, 18% underwent radiotherapy only, and 14% did not undergo either treatment. The median survival for patients who underwent surgery and radiotherapy was 8 months. The median survival for patients who underwent radiotherapy only was 4 months, and for patients who underwent surgery only was 3 months. Those who received neither surgery nor radiotherapy had a median survival of 2 months (p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that radiotherapy significantly improved cancer-specific survival (hazard ratio [HR], 0.43, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.38-0.49) after adjusting for surgery, tumor size, gender, ethnicity, and age at diagnosis. Other factors associated with Cancer-specific survival included surgery, tumor size, age at diagnosis, and ethnicity. Analysis using overall survival as the endpoint yielded very similar results. Conclusions: Elderly patients with glioblastoma who underwent radiotherapy had improved cancer-specific survival and overall survival compared to patients who did not receive radiotherapy.« less

Pretreatment Health Behaviors Predict Survival Among Patients With Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

PubMed Central

Duffy, Sonia A.; Ronis, David L.; McLean, Scott; Fowler, Karen E.; Gruber, Stephen B.; Wolf, Gregory T.; Terrell, Jeffrey E.

2009-01-01

Purpose Our prior work has shown that the health behaviors of head and neck cancer patients are interrelated and are associated with quality of life; however, other than smoking, the relationship between health behaviors and survival is unclear. Patients and Methods A prospective cohort study was conducted to determine the relationship between five pretreatment health behaviors (smoking, alcohol, diet, physical activity, and sleep) and all-cause survival among 504 head and neck cancer patients. Results Smoking status was the strongest predictor of survival, with both current smokers (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.4; 95% CI, 1.3 to 4.4) and former smokers (HR = 2.0; 95% CI, 1.2 to 3.5) showing significant associations with poor survival. Problem drinking was associated with survival in the univariate analysis (HR = 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0 to 2.0) but lost significance when controlling for other factors. Low fruit intake was negatively associated with survival in the univariate analysis only (HR = 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.1), whereas vegetable intake was not significant in either univariate or multivariate analyses. Although physical activity was associated with survival in the univariate analysis (HR = 0.95; 95% CI, 0.93 to 0.97), it was not significant in the multivariate model. Sleep was not significantly associated with survival in either univariate or multivariate analysis. Control variables that were also independently associated with survival in the multivariate analysis were age, education, tumor site, cancer stage, and surgical treatment. Conclusion Variation in selected pretreatment health behaviors (eg, smoking, fruit intake, and physical activity) in this population is associated with variation in survival. PMID:19289626

Developing population models with data from marked individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hae Yeong Ryu,; Kevin T. Shoemaker,; Eva Kneip,; Anna Pidgeon,; Patricia Heglund,; Brooke Bateman,; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Reşit Akçakaya,

2016-01-01

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful tool for biodiversity assessments, but its use has been limited because of the requirements for fully specified population models such as demographic structure, density-dependence, environmental stochasticity, and specification of uncertainties. Developing a fully specified population model from commonly available data sources – notably, mark–recapture studies – remains complicated due to lack of practical methods for estimating fecundity, true survival (as opposed to apparent survival), natural temporal variability in both survival and fecundity, density-dependence in the demographic parameters, and uncertainty in model parameters. We present a general method that estimates all the key parameters required to specify a stochastic, matrix-based population model, constructed using a long-term mark–recapture dataset. Unlike standard mark–recapture analyses, our approach provides estimates of true survival rates and fecundities, their respective natural temporal variabilities, and density-dependence functions, making it possible to construct a population model for long-term projection of population dynamics. Furthermore, our method includes a formal quantification of parameter uncertainty for global (multivariate) sensitivity analysis. We apply this approach to 9 bird species and demonstrate the feasibility of using data from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. Bias-correction factors for raw estimates of survival and fecundity derived from mark–recapture data (apparent survival and juvenile:adult ratio, respectively) were non-negligible, and corrected parameters were generally more biologically reasonable than their uncorrected counterparts. Our method allows the development of fully specified stochastic population models using a single, widely available data source, substantially reducing the barriers that have until now limited the widespread application of PVA. This method is expected to greatly enhance our understanding of the processes underlying population dynamics and our ability to analyze viability and project trends for species of conservation concern.

Performance evaluation of 4 measuring methods of ground-glass opacities for predicting the 5-year relapse-free survival of patients with peripheral nonsmall cell lung cancer: a multicenter study.

PubMed

Kakinuma, Ryutaro; Kodama, Ken; Yamada, Kouzo; Yokoyama, Akira; Adachi, Shuji; Mori, Kiyoshi; Fukuyama, Yasuro; Fukuda, Yasuro; Kuriyama, Keiko; Oda, Junichi; Oda, Junji; Noguchi, Masayuki; Matsuno, Yoshihiro; Yokose, Tomoyuki; Ohmatsu, Hironobu; Nishiwaki, Yutaka

2008-01-01

To evaluate the performance of 4 methods of measuring the extent of ground-glass opacities as a means of predicting the 5-year relapse-free survival of patients with peripheral nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSLC). Ground-glass opacities on thin-section computed tomographic images of 120 peripheral NSLCs were measured at 7 medical institutions by the length, area, modified length, and vanishing ratio (VR) methods. The performance (Az) of each method in predicting the 5-year relapse-free survival was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic analysis. The mean Az value obtained by the length, area, modified length, and VR methods in the receiver operating characteristic analyses was 0.683, 0.702, 0.728, and 0.784, respectively. The differences between the mean Az value obtained by the VR method and by the other 3 methods were significant. Vanishing ratio method was the most accurate predictor of the 5-year relapse-free survival of patients with peripheral NSLC.

Analysis of survival data from telemetry projects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunck, C.M.; Winterstein, S.R.; Pollock, K.H.

1985-01-01

Telemetry techniques can be used to study the survival rates of animal populations and are particularly suitable for species or settings for which band recovery models are not. Statistical methods for estimating survival rates and parameters of survival distributions from observations of radio-tagged animals will be described. These methods have been applied to medical and engineering studies and to the study of nest success. Estimates and tests based on discrete models, originally introduced by Mayfield, and on continuous models, both parametric and nonparametric, will be described. Generalizations, including staggered entry of subjects into the study and identification of mortality factors will be considered. Additional discussion topics will include sample size considerations, relocation frequency for subjects, and use of covariates.

Causal inference in survival analysis using pseudo-observations.

PubMed

Andersen, Per K; Syriopoulou, Elisavet; Parner, Erik T

2017-07-30

Causal inference for non-censored response variables, such as binary or quantitative outcomes, is often based on either (1) direct standardization ('G-formula') or (2) inverse probability of treatment assignment weights ('propensity score'). To do causal inference in survival analysis, one needs to address right-censoring, and often, special techniques are required for that purpose. We will show how censoring can be dealt with 'once and for all' by means of so-called pseudo-observations when doing causal inference in survival analysis. The pseudo-observations can be used as a replacement of the outcomes without censoring when applying 'standard' causal inference methods, such as (1) or (2) earlier. We study this idea for estimating the average causal effect of a binary treatment on the survival probability, the restricted mean lifetime, and the cumulative incidence in a competing risks situation. The methods will be illustrated in a small simulation study and via a study of patients with acute myeloid leukemia who received either myeloablative or non-myeloablative conditioning before allogeneic hematopoetic cell transplantation. We will estimate the average causal effect of the conditioning regime on outcomes such as the 3-year overall survival probability and the 3-year risk of chronic graft-versus-host disease. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A review of statistical issues with progression-free survival as an interval-censored time-to-event endpoint.

PubMed

Sun, Xing; Li, Xiaoyun; Chen, Cong; Song, Yang

2013-01-01

Frequent rise of interval-censored time-to-event data in randomized clinical trials (e.g., progression-free survival [PFS] in oncology) challenges statistical researchers in the pharmaceutical industry in various ways. These challenges exist in both trial design and data analysis. Conventional statistical methods treating intervals as fixed points, which are generally practiced by pharmaceutical industry, sometimes yield inferior or even flawed analysis results in extreme cases for interval-censored data. In this article, we examine the limitation of these standard methods under typical clinical trial settings and further review and compare several existing nonparametric likelihood-based methods for interval-censored data, methods that are more sophisticated but robust. Trial design issues involved with interval-censored data comprise another topic to be explored in this article. Unlike right-censored survival data, expected sample size or power for a trial with interval-censored data relies heavily on the parametric distribution of the baseline survival function as well as the frequency of assessments. There can be substantial power loss in trials with interval-censored data if the assessments are very infrequent. Such an additional dependency controverts many fundamental assumptions and principles in conventional survival trial designs, especially the group sequential design (e.g., the concept of information fraction). In this article, we discuss these fundamental changes and available tools to work around their impacts. Although progression-free survival is often used as a discussion point in the article, the general conclusions are equally applicable to other interval-censored time-to-event endpoints.

Complete hazard ranking to analyze right-censored data: An ALS survival study.

PubMed

Huang, Zhengnan; Zhang, Hongjiu; Boss, Jonathan; Goutman, Stephen A; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Dinov, Ivo D; Guan, Yuanfang

2017-12-01

Survival analysis represents an important outcome measure in clinical research and clinical trials; further, survival ranking may offer additional advantages in clinical trials. In this study, we developed GuanRank, a non-parametric ranking-based technique to transform patients' survival data into a linear space of hazard ranks. The transformation enables the utilization of machine learning base-learners including Gaussian process regression, Lasso, and random forest on survival data. The method was submitted to the DREAM Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) Stratification Challenge. Ranked first place, the model gave more accurate ranking predictions on the PRO-ACT ALS dataset in comparison to Cox proportional hazard model. By utilizing right-censored data in its training process, the method demonstrated its state-of-the-art predictive power in ALS survival ranking. Its feature selection identified multiple important factors, some of which conflicts with previous studies.

Trends in the survival of patients diagnosed with cancer in the Nordic countries 1964-2003 followed up to the end of 2006. Material and methods.

PubMed

Engholm, Gerda; Gislum, Mette; Bray, Freddie; Hakulinen, Timo

2010-06-01

Comparable data on cancer incidence and mortality in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden are available for analysis through a collaboration of the national Cancer Registries via the NORDCAN website (http://ancr.nu). In the continued spirit of Nordic collaborative research, a number of studies examining trends in cancer survival are published in this journal. The data were divided into eight 5-year periods by sex in five Nordic countries. Age-standardised 5-year relative survival ratios and excess mortality rates in the short-term (first month and 1-3 months following diagnosis), and the long-term (2-5 years after diagnosis) were calculated, as were age-specific 5-year relative survival using cohort-survival methods. A hybrid method combining the cohort and period methods was used for the period 1999-2003 as not all patients were followed for five years. Age-standardisation used the International Cancer Survival Standard, and calculation of expected deaths used country-specific population mortality rates. The data series constitutes 3 360 397 tumours among 3 160 802 patients followed up for death through 2006 for 39 different cancer sites diagnosed in the years 1964-2003. The paper describes the data, exclusions and imputations, design and analysis, age structure and standardisation procedures, follow-up, and case-mix adjustment methods. The strengths of this study include the overall comparability and quality of the data, the national coverage, and the length of the time series. Collecting and analysing data from the five Nordic countries for 39 different cancer sites over 40 years in a systematised and comparable way is a major undertaking. A thorough description of the analyses, definitions and exclusions in the survival study, supplemented with corresponding information on cancer incidence and mortality is needed for appropriate interpretation and comparison between countries, and between and within cancer sites. This information must be made available to provide appropriate interpretation of the site-specific results.

Modeling time-to-event (survival) data using classification tree analysis.

PubMed

Linden, Ariel; Yarnold, Paul R

2017-12-01

Time to the occurrence of an event is often studied in health research. Survival analysis differs from other designs in that follow-up times for individuals who do not experience the event by the end of the study (called censored) are accounted for in the analysis. Cox regression is the standard method for analysing censored data, but the assumptions required of these models are easily violated. In this paper, we introduce classification tree analysis (CTA) as a flexible alternative for modelling censored data. Classification tree analysis is a "decision-tree"-like classification model that provides parsimonious, transparent (ie, easy to visually display and interpret) decision rules that maximize predictive accuracy, derives exact P values via permutation tests, and evaluates model cross-generalizability. Using empirical data, we identify all statistically valid, reproducible, longitudinally consistent, and cross-generalizable CTA survival models and then compare their predictive accuracy to estimates derived via Cox regression and an unadjusted naïve model. Model performance is assessed using integrated Brier scores and a comparison between estimated survival curves. The Cox regression model best predicts average incidence of the outcome over time, whereas CTA survival models best predict either relatively high, or low, incidence of the outcome over time. Classification tree analysis survival models offer many advantages over Cox regression, such as explicit maximization of predictive accuracy, parsimony, statistical robustness, and transparency. Therefore, researchers interested in accurate prognoses and clear decision rules should consider developing models using the CTA-survival framework. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

MicroRNA-34c-5p is related to recurrence in laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Re, Massimo; Çeka, Artan; Rubini, Corrado; Ferrante, Luigi; Zizzi, Antonio; Gioacchini, Federico M; Tulli, Michele; Spazzafumo, Liana; Sellari-Franceschini, Stefano; Procopio, Antonio D; Olivieri, Fabiola

2015-09-01

Altered microRNA expression has been found in many cancer types, including laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC). We investigated the association of LSCC-related miR-34c-5p with disease-free survival and overall survival. Retrospective cohort study. Expression levels of miR-34c-5p were detected in 90 LSCC formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues by reverse-transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Overall survival and disease-free survival were evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and multivariate analysis was performed using Cox proportional hazard analysis. A downregulation of miR-34c-5p expression significantly correlated with worse disease-free and overall survival. In the multivariate analysis, low miR-34c-5p expression was associated with an increased risk of recurrence. A downregulation of miR-34c-5p in LSCC is independently associated with unfavorable disease-free survival, suggesting that miR-34c-5p might be a promising marker for evaluating the risk of recurrences. NA. © 2015 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Using statistical process control methods to trace small changes in perinatal mortality after a training program in a low-resource setting.

PubMed

Mduma, Estomih R; Ersdal, Hege; Kvaloy, Jan Terje; Svensen, Erling; Mdoe, Paschal; Perlman, Jeffrey; Kidanto, Hussein Lessio; Soreide, Eldar

2018-05-01

To trace and document smaller changes in perinatal survival over time. Prospective observational study, with retrospective analysis. Labor ward and operating theater at Haydom Lutheran Hospital in rural north-central Tanzania. All women giving birth and birth attendants. Helping Babies Breathe (HBB) simulation training on newborn care and resuscitation and some other efforts to improve perinatal outcome. Perinatal survival, including fresh stillbirths and early (24-h) newborn survival. The variable life-adjusted plot and cumulative sum chart revealed a steady improvement in survival over time, after the baseline period. There were some variations throughout the study period, and some of these could be linked to different interventions and events. To our knowledge, this is the first time statistical process control methods have been used to document changes in perinatal mortality over time in a rural Sub-Saharan hospital, showing a steady increase in survival. These methods can be utilized to continuously monitor and describe changes in patient outcomes.

Prognostic factors in patients with advanced cholangiocarcinoma: Role of surgery, chemotherapy and body mass index

PubMed Central

Farhat, Mirna H; Shamseddine, Ali I; Tawil, Ayman N; Berjawi, Ghina; Sidani, Charif; Shamseddeen, Wael; Barada, Kassem A

2008-01-01

AIM: To study the factors that may affect survival of cholangiocarcinoma in Lebanon. METHODS: A retrospective review of the medical records of 55 patients diagnosed with cholangio-carcinoma at the American University of Beirut between 1990 and 2005 was conducted. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine the impact of surgery, chemotherapy, body mass index, bilirubin level and other factors on survival. RESULTS: The median survival of all patients was 8.57 mo (0.03-105.2). Univariate analysis showed that low bilirubin level (< 10 mg/dL), radical surgery and chemotherapy administration were significantly associated with better survival (P = 0.012, 0.038 and 0.038, respectively). In subgroup analysis on patients who had no surgery, chemotherapy administration prolonged median survival significantly (17.0 mo vs 3.5 mo, P = 0.001). Multivariate analysis identified only low bilirubin level < 10 mg/dL and chemotherapy administration as independent predictors associated with better survival (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Our data show that palliative and postoperative chemotherapy as well as a bilirubin level < 10 mg/dL are independent predictors of a significant increase in survival in patients with cholangiocarcinoma. PMID:18506930

Analysis of censored data.

PubMed

Lucijanic, Marko; Petrovecki, Mladen

2012-01-01

Analyzing events over time is often complicated by incomplete, or censored, observations. Special non-parametric statistical methods were developed to overcome difficulties in summarizing and comparing censored data. Life-table (actuarial) method and Kaplan-Meier method are described with an explanation of survival curves. For the didactic purpose authors prepared a workbook based on most widely used Kaplan-Meier method. It should help the reader understand how Kaplan-Meier method is conceptualized and how it can be used to obtain statistics and survival curves needed to completely describe a sample of patients. Log-rank test and hazard ratio are also discussed.

Clinical and multiple gene expression variables in survival analysis of breast cancer: Analysis with the hypertabastic survival model

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background We explore the benefits of applying a new proportional hazard model to analyze survival of breast cancer patients. As a parametric model, the hypertabastic survival model offers a closer fit to experimental data than Cox regression, and furthermore provides explicit survival and hazard functions which can be used as additional tools in the survival analysis. In addition, one of our main concerns is utilization of multiple gene expression variables. Our analysis treats the important issue of interaction of different gene signatures in the survival analysis. Methods The hypertabastic proportional hazards model was applied in survival analysis of breast cancer patients. This model was compared, using statistical measures of goodness of fit, with models based on the semi-parametric Cox proportional hazards model and the parametric log-logistic and Weibull models. The explicit functions for hazard and survival were then used to analyze the dynamic behavior of hazard and survival functions. Results The hypertabastic model provided the best fit among all the models considered. Use of multiple gene expression variables also provided a considerable improvement in the goodness of fit of the model, as compared to use of only one. By utilizing the explicit survival and hazard functions provided by the model, we were able to determine the magnitude of the maximum rate of increase in hazard, and the maximum rate of decrease in survival, as well as the times when these occurred. We explore the influence of each gene expression variable on these extrema. Furthermore, in the cases of continuous gene expression variables, represented by a measure of correlation, we were able to investigate the dynamics with respect to changes in gene expression. Conclusions We observed that use of three different gene signatures in the model provided a greater combined effect and allowed us to assess the relative importance of each in determination of outcome in this data set. These results point to the potential to combine gene signatures to a greater effect in cases where each gene signature represents some distinct aspect of the cancer biology. Furthermore we conclude that the hypertabastic survival models can be an effective survival analysis tool for breast cancer patients. PMID:23241496

Predicting analysis time in events-driven clinical trials using accumulating time-to-event surrogate information.

PubMed

Wang, Jianming; Ke, Chunlei; Yu, Zhinuan; Fu, Lei; Dornseif, Bruce

2016-05-01

For clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints, predicting the accrual of the events of interest with precision is critical in determining the timing of interim and final analyses. For example, overall survival (OS) is often chosen as the primary efficacy endpoint in oncology studies, with planned interim and final analyses at a pre-specified number of deaths. Often, correlated surrogate information, such as time-to-progression (TTP) and progression-free survival, are also collected as secondary efficacy endpoints. It would be appealing to borrow strength from the surrogate information to improve the precision of the analysis time prediction. Currently available methods in the literature for predicting analysis timings do not consider utilizing the surrogate information. In this article, using OS and TTP as an example, a general parametric model for OS and TTP is proposed, with the assumption that disease progression could change the course of the overall survival. Progression-free survival, related both to OS and TTP, will be handled separately, as it can be derived from OS and TTP. The authors seek to develop a prediction procedure using a Bayesian method and provide detailed implementation strategies under certain assumptions. Simulations are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. An application to a real study is also provided. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

[Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio in peripheral blood: a novel independent prognostic factor in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma].

PubMed

Wu, F; Wu, L L; Zhu, L X

2017-01-23

Objective: To investigate whether neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in peripheral blood can be an independent prognostic factor in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Methods: Clinical data of 97 HNSCC patients who received surgical treatment in our department between January 2008 and January 2012 were analyzed retrospectively. The 97 patients were divided into low NLR group (NLR≤5, n =69) and high NLR group (NLR>5, n =28) according to the NLR in preoperative peripheral blood. The relationships of NLR and clinicopathological features were analyzed. Kaplan-Meier method was used for univariate survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard model for multivariate survival analysis. Results: The clinical stages were significantly different between high NLR group and low NLR group ( P <0.05), however, the age, gender, location, lymph node metastasis, smoking and alcohol of the two groups showed no significant differences ( P > 0.05 of all). Univariate survival analysis showed that smoking, lymph node metastasis, clinical stage and NLR value were risk factors for 3-year overall survival (OS) rate and relapse-free survival (RFS) rate of HNSCC patients ( P <0.05). The OS rate of high NLR and low NLR groups was 42.9% and 91.3%, and the RFS rate was 44.2% and 80.1%, respectively, with a statistically significant difference ( P <0.05 for both). Cox multivariate survival analysis showed that clinical stage and NLR were independent factors for prognostic evaluation of HNSCC patients ( P <0.05 for both). Conclusions: NLR level is significantly associated with clinical stage of HNSCC. High NLR is an independent prognostic rick factor and plays an important role in prognostic evaluation of HNSCC patients.

Prognostic value of lymph nodes count on survival of patients with distal cholangiocarcinomas

PubMed Central

Lin, Hua-Peng; Li, Sheng-Wei; Liu, Ye; Zhou, Shi-Ji

2018-01-01

AIM To evaluate the prognostic value of the number of retrieved lymph nodes (LNs) and other prognostic factors for patients with distal cholangiocarcinomas, and to determine the optimal retrieved LNs cut-off number. METHODS The Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database was used to screen for patients with distal cholangiocarcinoma. Patients with different numbers of retrieved LNs were divided into three groups by the X-tile program. X-tile from Yale University is a useful tool for outcome-based cut-point optimization. The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression analysis were utilized for survival analysis. RESULTS A total of 449 patients with distal cholangiocarcinoma met the inclusion criteria. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis for all patients and for N1 patients revealed no significant differences among patients with different retrieved LN counts in terms of overall and cancer-specific survival. In patients with node-negative distal cholangiocarcinoma, patients with four to nine retrieved LNs had a significantly better overall (P = 0.026) and cancer-specific survival (P = 0.039) than others. In the subsequent multivariate analysis, the number of retrieved LNs was evaluated to be independently associated with survival. Additionally, patients with four to nine retrieved LNs had a significantly lower overall mortality risk [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.39; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.20-0.74] and cancer cause-specific mortality risk (HR = 0.32; 95%CI: 0.15-0.66) than other patients. Additionally, stratified survival analyses showed persistently better overall and cancer-specific survival when retrieving four to nine LNs in patients with any T stage of tumor, a tumor between 20 and 50 mm in diameter, or a poorly differentiated or undifferentiated tumor, and in patients who were ≤ 70-years-old. CONCLUSION The number of retrieved LNs was an important independent prognostic factor for patients with node-negative distal cholangiocarcinoma. Additionally, patients with four to nine retrieved LNs had better overall and cancer-specific survival rates than others, but the reason and mechanism were unclear. This conclusion should be validated in future studies. PMID:29531466

Prostate specific antigen (PSA) kinetic as a prognostic factor in metastatic prostate cancer receiving androgen deprivation therapy: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Afriansyah, Andika; Hamid, Agus Rizal Ardy Hariandy; Mochtar, Chaidir Arif; Umbas, Rainy

2018-01-01

Aim: Metastatic prostate cancer (mPCa) has a poor outcome with median survival of two to five years. The use of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) is a gold standard in management of this stage.  Aim of this study is to analyze the prognostic value of PSA kinetics of patient treated with hormonal therapy related to survival from several published studies Method: Systematic review and meta-analysis was performed using literature searching in the electronic databases of MEDLINE, Science Direct, and Cochrane Library. Inclusion criteria were mPCa receiving ADT, a study analyzing Progression Free Survival (PFS), Overall Survival (OS), or Cancer Specific Survival (CSS) and prognostic factor of survival related to PSA kinetics (initial PSA, PSA nadir, and time to achieve nadir (TTN)). The exclusion criteria were metastatic castration resistant of prostate cancer (mCRPC) and non-metastatic disease. Generic inverse variance method was used to combine hazard ratio (HR) within the studies. Meta-analysis was performed using Review Manager 5.2 and a p-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: We found 873 citations throughout database searching with 17 studies were consistent with inclusion criteria. However, just 10 studies were analyzed in the quantitative analysis. Most of the studies had a good methodological quality based on Ottawa Scale. No significant association between initial PSA and PFS. In addition, there was no association between initial PSA and CSS/ OS. We found association of reduced PFS (HR 2.22; 95% CI 1.82 to 2.70) and OS/ CSS (HR 3.31; 95% CI 2.01-5.43) of patient with high PSA nadir. Shorter TTN was correlated with poor result of survival either PFS (HR 2.41; 95% CI 1.19 - 4.86) or CSS/ OS (HR 1.80; 95%CI  1.42 - 2.30) Conclusion: Initial PSA before starting ADT do not associated with survival in mPCa.  There is association of PSA nadir and TTN with survival.

Prostate specific antigen (PSA) kinetic as a prognostic factor in metastatic prostate cancer receiving androgen deprivation therapy: systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Afriansyah, Andika; Hamid, Agus Rizal Ardy Hariandy; Mochtar, Chaidir Arif; Umbas, Rainy

2018-01-01

Aim: Metastatic prostate cancer (mPCa) has a poor outcome with median survival of two to five years. The use of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) is a gold standard in management of this stage.  Aim of this study is to analyze the prognostic value of PSA kinetics of patient treated with hormonal therapy related to survival from several published studies Method: Systematic review and meta-analysis was performed using literature searching in the electronic databases of MEDLINE, Science Direct, and Cochrane Library. Inclusion criteria were mPCa receiving ADT, a study analyzing Progression Free Survival (PFS), Overall Survival (OS), or Cancer Specific Survival (CSS) and prognostic factor of survival related to PSA kinetics (initial PSA, PSA nadir, and time to achieve nadir (TTN)). The exclusion criteria were metastatic castration resistant of prostate cancer (mCRPC) and non-metastatic disease. Generic inverse variance method was used to combine hazard ratio (HR) within the studies. Meta-analysis was performed using Review Manager 5.2 and a p-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: We found 873 citations throughout database searching with 17 studies were consistent with inclusion criteria. However, just 10 studies were analyzed in the quantitative analysis. Most of the studies had a good methodological quality based on Ottawa Scale. No significant association between initial PSA and PFS. In addition, there was no association between initial PSA and CSS/ OS. We found association of reduced PFS (HR 2.22; 95% CI 1.82 to 2.70) and OS/ CSS (HR 3.31; 95% CI 2.01-5.43) of patient with high PSA nadir. Shorter TTN was correlated with poor result of survival either PFS (HR 2.41; 95% CI 1.19 – 4.86) or CSS/ OS (HR 1.80; 95%CI  1.42 – 2.30) Conclusion: Initial PSA before starting ADT do not associated with survival in mPCa.  There is association of PSA nadir and TTN with survival PMID:29904592

The use of simple reparameterizations to improve the efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation for multilevel models with applications to discrete time survival models.

PubMed

Browne, William J; Steele, Fiona; Golalizadeh, Mousa; Green, Martin J

2009-06-01

We consider the application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation methods to random-effects models and in particular the family of discrete time survival models. Survival models can be used in many situations in the medical and social sciences and we illustrate their use through two examples that differ in terms of both substantive area and data structure. A multilevel discrete time survival analysis involves expanding the data set so that the model can be cast as a standard multilevel binary response model. For such models it has been shown that MCMC methods have advantages in terms of reducing estimate bias. However, the data expansion results in very large data sets for which MCMC estimation is often slow and can produce chains that exhibit poor mixing. Any way of improving the mixing will result in both speeding up the methods and more confidence in the estimates that are produced. The MCMC methodological literature is full of alternative algorithms designed to improve mixing of chains and we describe three reparameterization techniques that are easy to implement in available software. We consider two examples of multilevel survival analysis: incidence of mastitis in dairy cattle and contraceptive use dynamics in Indonesia. For each application we show where the reparameterization techniques can be used and assess their performance.

Clinical phenotypes and survival of pre-capillary pulmonary hypertension in systemic sclerosis.

PubMed

Launay, David; Montani, David; Hassoun, Paul M; Cottin, Vincent; Le Pavec, Jérôme; Clerson, Pierre; Sitbon, Olivier; Jaïs, Xavier; Savale, Laurent; Weatherald, Jason; Sobanski, Vincent; Mathai, Stephen C; Shafiq, Majid; Cordier, Jean-François; Hachulla, Eric; Simonneau, Gérald; Humbert, Marc

2018-01-01

Pre-capillary pulmonary hypertension (PH) in systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a heterogeneous condition with an overall bad prognosis. The objective of this study was to identify and characterize homogeneous phenotypes by a cluster analysis in SSc patients with PH. Patients were identified from two prospective cohorts from the US and France. Clinical, pulmonary function, high-resolution chest tomography, hemodynamic and survival data were extracted. We performed cluster analysis using the k-means method and compared survival between clusters using Cox regression analysis. Cluster analysis of 200 patients identified four homogenous phenotypes. Cluster C1 included patients with mild to moderate risk pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) with limited or no interstitial lung disease (ILD) and low DLCO with a 3-year survival of 81.5% (95% CI: 71.4-88.2). C2 had pre-capillary PH due to extensive ILD and worse 3-year survival compared to C1 (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 3.14; 95% CI 1.66-5.94; p = 0.0004). C3 had severe PAH and a trend towards worse survival (HR 2.53; 95% CI 0.99-6.49; p = 0.052). Cluster C4 and C1 were similar with no difference in survival (HR 0.65; 95% CI 0.19-2.27, p = 0.507) but with a higher DLCO in C4. PH in SSc can be characterized into distinct clusters that differ in prognosis.

Impact of uncertainty on cost-effectiveness analysis of medical strategies: the case of high-dose chemotherapy for breast cancer patients.

PubMed

Marino, Patricia; Siani, Carole; Roché, Henri; Moatti, Jean-Paul

2005-01-01

The object of this study was to determine, taking into account uncertainty on cost and outcome parameters, the cost-effectiveness of high-dose chemotherapy (HDC) compared with conventional chemotherapy for advanced breast cancer patients. An analysis was conducted for 300 patients included in a randomized clinical trial designed to evaluate the benefits, in terms of disease-free survival and overall survival, of adding a single course of HDC to a four-cycle conventional-dose chemotherapy for breast cancer patients with axillary lymph node invasion. Costs were estimated from a detailed observation of physical quantities consumed, and the Kaplan-Meier method was used to evaluate mean survival times. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were evaluated successively considering disease-free survival and overall survival outcomes. Handling of uncertainty consisted in construction of confidence intervals for these ratios, using the truncated Fieller method. The cost per disease-free life year gained was evaluated at 13,074 Euros, a value that seems to be acceptable to society. However, handling uncertainty shows that the upper bound of the confidence interval is around 38,000 Euros, which is nearly three times higher. Moreover, as no difference was demonstrated in overall survival between treatments, cost-effectiveness analysis, that is a cost minimization, indicated that the intensive treatment is a dominated strategy involving an extra cost of 7,400 Euros, for no added benefit. Adding a single course of HDC led to a clinical benefit in terms of disease-free survival for an additional cost that seems to be acceptable, considering the point estimate of the ratio. However, handling uncertainty indicates a maximum ratio for which conclusions have to be discussed.

Immunohistochemistry Analysis of CD44, EGFR, and p16 in Oral Cavity and Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

PubMed

Cohen, Erin R; Reis, Isildinha M; Gomez, Carmen; Pereira, Lutecia; Freiser, Monika E; Hoosien, Gia; Franzmann, Elizabeth J

2017-08-01

Objectives We analyze the relationship between CD44, epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), and p16 expression in oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancers in a diverse population. We also describe whether particular patterns of staining are associated with progression-free survival and overall survival. Study Design Prospective study, single-blind to pathologist and laboratory technologist. Setting Hospital based. Subjects and Methods Immunohistochemistry, comprising gross staining and cellular expression, was performed and interpreted in a blinded fashion on 24 lip/oral cavity and 40 oropharyngeal cancer specimens collected between 2007 and 2012 from participants of a larger study. Information on overall survival and progression-free survival was obtained from medical records. Results Nineteen cases were clinically p16 positive, 16 of which were oropharyngeal. Oral cavity lesions were more likely to exhibit strong CD44 membrane staining ( P = .0002). Strong CD44 membrane and strong EGFR membrane and/or cytoplasmic staining were more common in p16-negative cancers ( P = .006). Peripheral/mixed gross p16 staining pattern was associated with worse survival than the universal staining on univariate and multivariate analyses ( P = .006, P = .030). This held true when combining gross and cellular localization for p16. For CD44, universal gross staining demonstrated poorer overall survival compared with the peripheral/mixed group ( P = .039). CD44 peripheral/mixed group alone and when combined with universal p16 demonstrated the best survival on multivariate analysis ( P = .010). Conclusion In a diverse population, systematic analysis applying p16, CD44, and EGFR gross staining and cellular localization on immunohistochemistry demonstrates distinct patterns that may have prognostic potential exceeding current methods. Larger studies are warranted to investigate these findings further.

Lack of active follow-up of cancer patients in Chennai, India: implications for population-based survival estimates

PubMed Central

Rama, Ranganathan; Shanta, Viswanathan

2008-01-01

Abstract Objective To measure the bias in absolute cancer survival estimates in the absence of active follow-up of cancer patients in developing countries. Methods Included in the study were all incident cases of the 10 most common cancers and corresponding subtypes plus all tobacco-related cancers not ranked among the top 10 that were registered in the population-based cancer registry in Chennai, India, during 1990–1999 and followed through 2001. Registered incident cases were first matched with those in the all-cause mortality database from the vital statistics division of the Corporation of Chennai. Unmatched incident cancer cases were then actively followed up to determine their survival status. Absolute survival was estimated by using an actuarial method and applying different assumptions regarding the survival status (alive/dead) of cases under passive and active follow-up. Findings Before active follow-up, matches between cases ranged from 20% to 66%, depending on the site of the primary tumour. Active follow-up of unmatched incident cases revealed that 15% to 43% had died by the end of the follow-up period, while the survival status of 4% to 38% remained unknown. Before active follow-up of cancer patients, 5-year absolute survival was estimated to be between 22% and 47% higher, than when conventional actuarial assumption methods were applied to cases that were lost to follow-up. The smallest survival estimates were obtained when cases lost to follow-up were excluded from the analysis. Conclusion Under the conditions that prevail in India and other developing countries, active follow-up of cancer patients yields the most reliable estimates of cancer survival rates. Passive case follow-up alone or applying standard methods to estimate survival is likely to result in an upward bias. PMID:18670662

Inferring parturition and neonate survival from movement patterns of female ungulates: a case study using woodland caribou

PubMed Central

DeMars, Craig A; Auger-Méthé, Marie; Schlägel, Ulrike E; Boutin, Stan

2013-01-01

Analyses of animal movement data have primarily focused on understanding patterns of space use and the behavioural processes driving them. Here, we analyzed animal movement data to infer components of individual fitness, specifically parturition and neonate survival. We predicted that parturition and neonate loss events could be identified by sudden and marked changes in female movement patterns. Using GPS radio-telemetry data from female woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou), we developed and tested two novel movement-based methods for inferring parturition and neonate survival. The first method estimated movement thresholds indicative of parturition and neonate loss from population-level data then applied these thresholds in a moving-window analysis on individual time-series data. The second method used an individual-based approach that discriminated among three a priori models representing the movement patterns of non-parturient females, females with surviving offspring, and females losing offspring. The models assumed that step lengths (the distance between successive GPS locations) were exponentially distributed and that abrupt changes in the scale parameter of the exponential distribution were indicative of parturition and offspring loss. Both methods predicted parturition with near certainty (>97% accuracy) and produced appropriate predictions of parturition dates. Prediction of neonate survival was affected by data quality for both methods; however, when using high quality data (i.e., with few missing GPS locations), the individual-based method performed better, predicting neonate survival status with an accuracy rate of 87%. Understanding ungulate population dynamics often requires estimates of parturition and neonate survival rates. With GPS radio-collars increasingly being used in research and management of ungulates, our movement-based methods represent a viable approach for estimating rates of both parameters. PMID:24324866

Inferring parturition and neonate survival from movement patterns of female ungulates: a case study using woodland caribou.

PubMed

Demars, Craig A; Auger-Méthé, Marie; Schlägel, Ulrike E; Boutin, Stan

2013-10-01

Analyses of animal movement data have primarily focused on understanding patterns of space use and the behavioural processes driving them. Here, we analyzed animal movement data to infer components of individual fitness, specifically parturition and neonate survival. We predicted that parturition and neonate loss events could be identified by sudden and marked changes in female movement patterns. Using GPS radio-telemetry data from female woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou), we developed and tested two novel movement-based methods for inferring parturition and neonate survival. The first method estimated movement thresholds indicative of parturition and neonate loss from population-level data then applied these thresholds in a moving-window analysis on individual time-series data. The second method used an individual-based approach that discriminated among three a priori models representing the movement patterns of non-parturient females, females with surviving offspring, and females losing offspring. The models assumed that step lengths (the distance between successive GPS locations) were exponentially distributed and that abrupt changes in the scale parameter of the exponential distribution were indicative of parturition and offspring loss. Both methods predicted parturition with near certainty (>97% accuracy) and produced appropriate predictions of parturition dates. Prediction of neonate survival was affected by data quality for both methods; however, when using high quality data (i.e., with few missing GPS locations), the individual-based method performed better, predicting neonate survival status with an accuracy rate of 87%. Understanding ungulate population dynamics often requires estimates of parturition and neonate survival rates. With GPS radio-collars increasingly being used in research and management of ungulates, our movement-based methods represent a viable approach for estimating rates of both parameters.

Practical application of cure mixture model for long-term censored survivor data from a withdrawal clinical trial of patients with major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Arano, Ichiro; Sugimoto, Tomoyuki; Hamasaki, Toshimitsu; Ohno, Yuko

2010-04-23

Survival analysis methods such as the Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards regression (Cox regression) are commonly used to analyze data from randomized withdrawal studies in patients with major depressive disorder. However, unfortunately, such common methods may be inappropriate when a long-term censored relapse-free time appears in data as the methods assume that if complete follow-up were possible for all individuals, each would eventually experience the event of interest. In this paper, to analyse data including such a long-term censored relapse-free time, we discuss a semi-parametric cure regression (Cox cure regression), which combines a logistic formulation for the probability of occurrence of an event with a Cox proportional hazards specification for the time of occurrence of the event. In specifying the treatment's effect on disease-free survival, we consider the fraction of long-term survivors and the risks associated with a relapse of the disease. In addition, we develop a tree-based method for the time to event data to identify groups of patients with differing prognoses (cure survival CART). Although analysis methods typically adapt the log-rank statistic for recursive partitioning procedures, the method applied here used a likelihood ratio (LR) test statistic from a fitting of cure survival regression assuming exponential and Weibull distributions for the latency time of relapse. The method is illustrated using data from a sertraline randomized withdrawal study in patients with major depressive disorder. We concluded that Cox cure regression reveals facts on who may be cured, and how the treatment and other factors effect on the cured incidence and on the relapse time of uncured patients, and that cure survival CART output provides easily understandable and interpretable information, useful both in identifying groups of patients with differing prognoses and in utilizing Cox cure regression models leading to meaningful interpretations.

The outcome and survival of palliative surgery in thoraco-lumbar spinal metastases: contemporary retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Nemelc, R M; Stadhouder, A; van Royen, B J; Jiya, T U

2014-11-01

Purpose: To evaluate outcome and survival and to identify prognostic variables for patients surgically treated for spinal metastases. Methods: A retrospective study was performed on 86 patients, surgically treated for spinal metastases. Preoperative analyses of the ASIA and spinal instability neoplastic scores (SINS) were performed. Survival curves of different prognostic variables were made by Kaplan–Meier analysis and the variables entered in a Cox proportional hazards model to determine their significance on survival. The correlation between preoperative radiotherapy and postoperative wound infections was also evaluated. Results: Survival analysis was performed on 81 patients,37 women and 44 men. Five patients were excluded due to missing data. Median overall survival was 38 weeks [95 % confidence interval (CI) 27.5–48.5 weeks], with a 3-month survival rate of 81.5 %. Breast tumor had the best median survival of 127 weeks and lung tumor the worst survival of 18 weeks. Univariate analysis showed tumor type, preoperative ASIA score (p = 0.01) and visceral metastases(p = 0.18) were significant prognostic variables for survival.Colon tumors had 5.53 times hazard ratio compared to patients with breast tumor. ASIA-C score had more than 13.03 times the hazard ratio compared to patients with an ASIA-E score. Retrospective analysis of the SINS scores showed 34 patients with a score of 13–18 points, 44 patients with a score of 7–12 points, and 1 patient with a score of 6 points. Preoperative radiotherapy had no influence on the postoperative incidence of deep surgical wound infections (p = 0.37). Patients with spinal metastases had a median survival of 38 weeks postoperative. The primary tumor type and ASIA score were significant prognostic factors for survival. Preoperative radiotherapy neither had influence on survival nor did it constitute a risk for postoperative surgical wound infections.

Invasive micropapillary carcinoma of the breast has a better long-term survival than invasive ductal carcinoma of the breast in spite of its aggressive clinical presentations: a comparison based on large population database and case-control analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Hongliang; Wu, Kejin; Wang, Maoli; Wang, Fuwen; Zhang, Mingdi; Zhang, Peng

2017-12-01

There are controversies in the comparison of overall survival between invasive micropapillary carcinoma of the breast (IMPC) and invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC). The objective of this study was to compare the long-term survival outcome between non-metastatic IMPC and IDC. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database was searched to identify women with non-metastatic IMPC and IDC diagnosed between 2001 and 2013. Comparisons of patient and tumor characteristics were performed using Pearson's chi-square. The propensity score matching method was applied with each IMPC matched to one IDC. Breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) and overall survival (OS) were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier product limit method and compared across groups using the log-rank statistic. Multivariate analysis was performed through Cox models. IMPC was presented with aggressive clinical presentations such as larger tumor, more positive lymph nodes, and more advanced stage compared with IDC. A higher rate of estrogen receptor (ER)/progesterone receptor (PR) positivity was also observed in IMPC. With a median follow-up of 64 months, IMPC had a better BCSS (P = 0.031) and OS (P = 0.012) compared with IDC. In a case-control analysis IMPC was still an independent favorable prognostic factor for BCSS (HR = 0.410, P < 0.001, 95% CI: 0.293-0.572) and OS (HR = 0.497, P < 0.001, 95% CI: 0.387-0.637). In subgroup analysis, IMPC always showed a better survival outcome compared with IDC except in AJCC stage I and histologic grade I disease. IMPC has a better long-term survival outcome compared with IDC in spite of its highly aggressive clinical presentation. © 2017 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Clinical prognostic value of metastasis-associated lung adenocarcinoma transcript 1 in various human cancers: an updated meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Yang; Yang, Ze; Wan, Xiaoya; Zhou, Jianguo; Zhang, Yu; Ma, Hu; Bai, Yuju

2016-05-28

Many studies have investigated the prognostic value of metastasis-associated lung adenocarcinoma transcript 1 (MALAT1) in human cancers. However, these studies were often limited by small sample sizes. Therefore, we performed this updated meta-analysis to summarize the potential value of MALAT1 as a biomarker for early treatment and to predict survival in various human malignant neoplasms, through the inclusion of the latest literature and improved methodology. Twelve eligible articles were systematically obtained from PubMed, Medline, Embase, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure and the Cochrane Library, from inception up to June 30, 2015. Survival was assessed using pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). By combining the results of 12 studies, we found elevated MALAT1 expression was associated with poor survival in most cancers, with a pooled HR of 1.90 (95% CI, 1.56-2.30) for overall survival (OS) and 3.06 (95% CI, 2.06-4.56) for recurrence-free survival/disease-free survival. Subgroup analyses according to ethnicity, tumor type, assay method, sample size, HR-calculation method and analysis type did not affect the predictive role of MALAT1 for OS in various cancer types. Further, by combining results from studies that used multivariate analyses, we found elevated MALAT1 was an independent prognostic factor for OS (HR = 1.98; 95% CI, 1.58-2.48). MALAT1 could serve as a potential prognostic biomarker in various cancers and may be a potential therapeutic target for the treatment and early detection of recurrence.

Expression of E-cadherin in canine anal sac gland carcinoma and its association with survival.

PubMed

Polton, G A; Brearley, M J; Green, L M; Scase, T J

2007-12-01

The objective of this study was to determine whether an association could be demonstrated between survival and the expression of the adhesion molecule E-cadherin by the neoplastic cells in a group of dogs with anal sac gland carcinomas (ASGCs). Archived formalin-fixed, paraffin wax-embedded primary tumour specimens were obtained for 36 cases of canine ASGC with known clinical management and survival data. Immunohistochemical methods were used to evaluate E-cadherin expression by the neoplastic cells and data were evaluated for an association between E-cadherin expression and survival. On univariate analysis, the median survival time for cases with tumours expressing E-cadherin in more than 75% of cells was significantly greater than that for cases with tumours expressing E-cadherin in fewer than 75% of cells (1168 versus 448 days, P = 0.0246). Both E-cadherin expression and presence or absence of distant metastases were significantly associated with survival on multivariate analysis. This study demonstrates that expression of E-cadherin at the cytoplasmic membrane in canine ASGCs is variable and potentially predictive of survival.

Ten-Year Experience of Renal Transplantation at the Northwest National Medical Center, Sonora Mexico: A Survival Study.

PubMed

Ma, M A; Laguna-Teniente, I R

2016-03-01

To improve survival after kidney transplantation, it is important to identify the variables that affect it. The aim of this work was to determine the survival of renal grafts from living and cadaveric donors and the survival of patients with graft failure in a tertiary medical unit in northwest Mexico. We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients who received transplants since 2004 at the center. Database and medical records of patients were reviewed. The data were captured in a database previously designed in the SPSS v21.1 program for statistical processing. A descriptive analysis with frequencies and percentages and numeric variables measure of central tendency and dispersion was conducted. The survival analysis was made with the Kaplan-Meier method to estimate the graft survive. A total of 412 transplantations were performed during the 2004-2013 period. We analyzed 331 records, and the 10-year survival rates of donor allografts from living and cadaveric donors were 86.64% and 72.78%, respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A simple prognostic model for overall survival in metastatic renal cell carcinoma

PubMed Central

Assi, Hazem I.; Patenaude, Francois; Toumishey, Ethan; Ross, Laura; Abdelsalam, Mahmoud; Reiman, Tony

2016-01-01

Introduction: The primary purpose of this study was to develop a simpler prognostic model to predict overall survival for patients treated for metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) by examining variables shown in the literature to be associated with survival. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients treated for mRCC at two Canadian centres. All patients who started first-line treatment were included in the analysis. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model was constructed using a stepwise procedure. Patients were assigned to risk groups depending on how many of the three risk factors from the final multivariate model they had. Results: There were three risk factors in the final multivariate model: hemoglobin, prior nephrectomy, and time from diagnosis to treatment. Patients in the high-risk group (two or three risk factors) had a median survival of 5.9 months, while those in the intermediate-risk group (one risk factor) had a median survival of 16.2 months, and those in the low-risk group (no risk factors) had a median survival of 50.6 months. Conclusions: In multivariate analysis, shorter survival times were associated with hemoglobin below the lower limit of normal, absence of prior nephrectomy, and initiation of treatment within one year of diagnosis. PMID:27217858

Identification of high versus lower risk clinical subgroups in a group of adult patients with supratentorial anaplastic astrocytomas.

PubMed

Decaestecker, C; Salmon, I; Camby, I; Dewitte, O; Pasteels, J L; Brotchi, J; Van Ham, P; Kiss, R

1995-05-01

The present work investigates whether computer-assisted techniques can contribute any significant information to the characterization of astrocytic tumor aggressiveness. Two complementary computer-assisted methods were used. The first method made use of the digital image analysis of Feulgen-stained nuclei, making it possible to compute 15 morphonuclear and 8 nuclear DNA content-related (ploidy level) parameters. The second method enabled the most discriminatory parameters to be determined. This second method is the Decision Tree technique, which forms part of the Supervised Learning Algorithms. These two techniques were applied to a series of 250 supratentorial astrocytic tumors of the adult. This series included 39 low-grade (astrocytomas, AST) and 211 high-grade (47 anaplastic astrocytomas, ANA, and 164 glioblastomas, GBM) astrocytic tumors. The results show that some AST, ANA and GBM did not fit within simple logical rules. These "complex" cases were labeled NC-AST, NC-ANA and NC-GBM because they were "non-classical" (NC) with respect to their cytological features. An analysis of survival data revealed that the patients with NC-GBM had the same survival period as patients with GBM. In sharp contrast, patients with ANA survived significantly longer than patients with NC-ANA. In fact, the patients with ANA had the same survival period as patients who died from AST, while the patients with NC-ANA had a survival period similar to those with GBM. All these data show that the computer-assisted techniques used in this study can actually provide the pathologist with significant information on the characterization of astrocytic tumor aggressiveness.

Comparison of Cox’s Regression Model and Parametric Models in Evaluating the Prognostic Factors for Survival after Liver Transplantation in Shiraz during 2000–2012

PubMed Central

Adelian, R.; Jamali, J.; Zare, N.; Ayatollahi, S. M. T.; Pooladfar, G. R.; Roustaei, N.

2015-01-01

Background: Identification of the prognostic factors for survival in patients with liver transplantation is challengeable. Various methods of survival analysis have provided different, sometimes contradictory, results from the same data. Objective: To compare Cox’s regression model with parametric models for determining the independent factors for predicting adults’ and pediatrics’ survival after liver transplantation. Method: This study was conducted on 183 pediatric patients and 346 adults underwent liver transplantation in Namazi Hospital, Shiraz, southern Iran. The study population included all patients undergoing liver transplantation from 2000 to 2012. The prognostic factors sex, age, Child class, initial diagnosis of the liver disease, PELD/MELD score, and pre-operative laboratory markers were selected for survival analysis. Result: Among 529 patients, 346 (64.5%) were adult and 183 (34.6%) were pediatric cases. Overall, the lognormal distribution was the best-fitting model for adult and pediatric patients. Age in adults (HR=1.16, p<0.05) and weight (HR=2.68, p<0.01) and Child class B (HR=2.12, p<0.05) in pediatric patients were the most important factors for prediction of survival after liver transplantation. Adult patients younger than the mean age and pediatric patients weighing above the mean and Child class A (compared to those with classes B or C) had better survival. Conclusion: Parametric regression model is a good alternative for the Cox’s regression model. PMID:26306158

A gene expression signature associated with survival in metastatic melanoma

PubMed Central

Mandruzzato, Susanna; Callegaro, Andrea; Turcatel, Gianluca; Francescato, Samuela; Montesco, Maria C; Chiarion-Sileni, Vanna; Mocellin, Simone; Rossi, Carlo R; Bicciato, Silvio; Wang, Ena; Marincola, Francesco M; Zanovello, Paola

2006-01-01

Background Current clinical and histopathological criteria used to define the prognosis of melanoma patients are inadequate for accurate prediction of clinical outcome. We investigated whether genome screening by means of high-throughput gene microarray might provide clinically useful information on patient survival. Methods Forty-three tumor tissues from 38 patients with stage III and stage IV melanoma were profiled with a 17,500 element cDNA microarray. Expression data were analyzed using significance analysis of microarrays (SAM) to identify genes associated with patient survival, and supervised principal components (SPC) to determine survival prediction. Results SAM analysis revealed a set of 80 probes, corresponding to 70 genes, associated with survival, i.e. 45 probes characterizing longer and 35 shorter survival times, respectively. These transcripts were included in a survival prediction model designed using SPC and cross-validation which allowed identifying 30 predicting probes out of the 80 associated with survival. Conclusion The longer-survival group of genes included those expressed in immune cells, both innate and acquired, confirming the interplay between immunological mechanisms and the natural history of melanoma. Genes linked to immune cells were totally lacking in the poor-survival group, which was instead associated with a number of genes related to highly proliferative and invasive tumor cells. PMID:17129373

Active compression-decompression cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) versus standard CPR for cardiac arrest patients: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Luo, Xu-rui; Zhang, Hui-li; Chen, Geng-jin; Ding, Wen-shu; Huang, Liang

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND: Active compression-decompression cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ACDCPR) has been popular in the treatment of patients with cardiac arrest (CA). However, the effect of ACD-CPR versus conventional standard CPR (S-CRP) is contriversial. This study was to analyze the efficacy and safety of ACD-CPR versus S-CRP in treating CA patients. METHODS: Randomized or quasi-randomized controlled trials published from January 1990 to March 2011 were searched with the phrase “active compression-decompression cardiopulmonary resuscitation and cardiac arrest” in PubMed, EmBASE, and China Biomedical Document Databases. The Cochrane Library was searched for papers of meta-analysis. Restoration of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) rate, survival rate to hospital admission, survival rate at 24 hours, and survival rate to hospital discharge were considered primary outcomes, and complications after CPR were viewed as secondary outcomes. Included studies were critically appraised and estimates of effects were calculated according to the model of fixed or random effects. Inconsistency across the studies was evaluated using the I2 statistic method. Sensitivity analysis was made to determine statistical heterogeneity. RESULTS: Thirteen studies met the criteria for this meta-analysis. The studies included 396 adult CA patients treated by ACD-CPR and 391 patients by S-CRP. Totally 234 CA patients were found out hospitals, while the other 333 CA patients were in hospitals. Two studies were evaluated with high-quality methodology and the rest 11 studies were of poor quality. ROSC rate, survival rate at 24 hours and survival rate to hospital discharge with favorable neurological function indicated that ACD-CPR is superior to S-CRP, with relative risk (RR) values of 1.39 (95% CI 0.99–1.97), 1.94 (95% CI 1.45–2.59) and 2.80 (95% CI 1.60–5.24). No significant differences were found in survival rate to hospital admission and survival rate to hospital discharge for ACD-CPR versus S-CRP with RR values of 1.06 (95% CI 0.76–1.60) and 1.00 (95% CI 0.73–1.38). CONCLUSION: Quality controlled studies confirmed the superiority of ACD-CPR to S-CRP in terms of ROSC rate and survival rate at 24 hours. Compared with S-CRP, ACD-CPR could not improve survival rate to hospital admission or survival rate to hospital discharge. PMID:25215130

Low Survival Rates of Oral and Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

PubMed Central

da Silva Júnior, Francisco Feliciano; dos Santos, Karine de Cássia Batista; Ferreira, Stefania Jeronimo

2017-01-01

Aim To assess the epidemiological and clinical factors that influence the prognosis of oral and oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). Methods One hundred and twenty-one cases of oral and oropharyngeal SCC were selected. The survival curves for each variable were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox regression model was applied to assess the effect of the variables on survival. Results Cancers at an advanced stage were observed in 103 patients (85.1%). Cancers on the tongue were more frequent (23.1%). The survival analysis was 59.9% in one year, 40.7% in two years, and 27.8% in 5 years. There was a significant low survival rate linked to alcohol intake (p = 0.038), advanced cancer staging (p = 0.003), and procedures without surgery (p < 0.001). When these variables were included in the Cox regression model only surgery procedures (p = 0.005) demonstrated a significant effect on survival. Conclusion The findings suggest that patients who underwent surgery had a greater survival rate compared with those that did not. The low survival rates and the high percentage of patients diagnosed at advanced stages demonstrate that oral and oropharyngeal cancer patients should receive more attention. PMID:28638410

TU-CD-BRB-08: Radiomic Analysis of FDG-PET Identifies Novel Prognostic Imaging Biomarkers in Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer Patients Treated with SBRT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cui, Y; Shirato, H; Song, J

2015-06-15

Purpose: This study aims to identify novel prognostic imaging biomarkers in locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) using quantitative, high-throughput image analysis. Methods: 86 patients with LAPC receiving chemotherapy followed by SBRT were retrospectively studied. All patients had a baseline FDG-PET scan prior to SBRT. For each patient, we extracted 435 PET imaging features of five types: statistical, morphological, textural, histogram, and wavelet. These features went through redundancy checks, robustness analysis, as well as a prescreening process based on their concordance indices with respect to the relevant outcomes. We then performed principle component analysis on the remaining features (number ranged frommore » 10 to 16), and fitted a Cox proportional hazard regression model using the first 3 principle components. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to assess the ability to distinguish high versus low-risk patients separated by median predicted survival. To avoid overfitting, all evaluations were based on leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV), in which each holdout patient was assigned to a risk group according to the model obtained from a separate training set. Results: For predicting overall survival (OS), the most dominant imaging features were wavelet coefficients. There was a statistically significant difference in OS between patients with predicted high and low-risk based on LOOCV (hazard ratio: 2.26, p<0.001). Similar imaging features were also strongly associated with local progression-free survival (LPFS) (hazard ratio: 1.53, p=0.026) on LOOCV. In comparison, neither SUVmax nor TLG was associated with LPFS (p=0.103, p=0.433) (Table 1). Results for progression-free survival and distant progression-free survival showed similar trends. Conclusion: Radiomic analysis identified novel imaging features that showed improved prognostic value over conventional methods. These features characterize the degree of intra-tumor heterogeneity reflected on FDG-PET images, and their biological underpinnings warrant further investigation. If validated in large, prospective cohorts, this method could be used to stratify patients based on individualized risk.« less

Advanced statistical methods for improved data analysis of NASA astrophysics missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feigelson, Eric D.

1992-01-01

The investigators under this grant studied ways to improve the statistical analysis of astronomical data. They looked at existing techniques, the development of new techniques, and the production and distribution of specialized software to the astronomical community. Abstracts of nine papers that were produced are included, as well as brief descriptions of four software packages. The articles that are abstracted discuss analytical and Monte Carlo comparisons of six different linear least squares fits, a (second) paper on linear regression in astronomy, two reviews of public domain software for the astronomer, subsample and half-sample methods for estimating sampling distributions, a nonparametric estimation of survival functions under dependent competing risks, censoring in astronomical data due to nondetections, an astronomy survival analysis computer package called ASURV, and improving the statistical methodology of astronomical data analysis.

Radiotherapy is associated with significant improvement in local and regional control in Merkel cell carcinoma

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Introduction Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is a rare tumour of skin. This study is a retrospective audit of patients with MCC from St Vincent’s and Mater Hospital, Sydney, Australia. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of radiotherapy (RT) on the local and regional control of MCC lesions and survival of patients with MCC. Method The data bases in anatomical pathology, RT and surgery. We searched for patients having a diagnosis of MCC between 1996 and 2007. Patient, tumour and treatment characteristics were collected and analysed. Univariate survival analysis of categorical variables was conducted with the Kaplan-Meier method together with the Log-Rank test for statistical significance. Continuous variables were assessed using the Cox regression method. Multivariate analysis was performed for significant univariate results. Results Sixty seven patients were found. Sixty two who were stage I-III and were treated with radical intent were analysed. 68% were male. The median age was 74 years. Forty-two cases (68%) were stage I or II, and 20 cases (32%) were stage III. For the subset of 42 stage I and II patients, those that had RT to their primary site had a 2-year local recurrence free survival of 89% compared with 36% for patients not receiving RT (p<0.001). The cumulative 2-year regional recurrence free survival for patients having adjuvant regional RT was 84% compared with 43% for patients not receiving this treatment (p<0.001). Immune status at initial surgery was a significant predictor for OS and MCCSS. In a multivariate analysis combining macroscopic size (mm) and immune status at initial surgery, only immune status remained a significant predictor of overall survival (HR=2.096, 95% CI: 1.002-4.385, p=0.049). Conclusions RT is associated with significant improvement in local and regional control in Merkel cell carcinoma. Immunosuppression is an important factor in overall survival. PMID:23075308

A Tutorial on Multilevel Survival Analysis: Methods, Models and Applications

PubMed Central

Austin, Peter C.

2017-01-01

Summary Data that have a multilevel structure occur frequently across a range of disciplines, including epidemiology, health services research, public health, education and sociology. We describe three families of regression models for the analysis of multilevel survival data. First, Cox proportional hazards models with mixed effects incorporate cluster-specific random effects that modify the baseline hazard function. Second, piecewise exponential survival models partition the duration of follow-up into mutually exclusive intervals and fit a model that assumes that the hazard function is constant within each interval. This is equivalent to a Poisson regression model that incorporates the duration of exposure within each interval. By incorporating cluster-specific random effects, generalised linear mixed models can be used to analyse these data. Third, after partitioning the duration of follow-up into mutually exclusive intervals, one can use discrete time survival models that use a complementary log–log generalised linear model to model the occurrence of the outcome of interest within each interval. Random effects can be incorporated to account for within-cluster homogeneity in outcomes. We illustrate the application of these methods using data consisting of patients hospitalised with a heart attack. We illustrate the application of these methods using three statistical programming languages (R, SAS and Stata). PMID:29307954

A Tutorial on Multilevel Survival Analysis: Methods, Models and Applications.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2017-08-01

Data that have a multilevel structure occur frequently across a range of disciplines, including epidemiology, health services research, public health, education and sociology. We describe three families of regression models for the analysis of multilevel survival data. First, Cox proportional hazards models with mixed effects incorporate cluster-specific random effects that modify the baseline hazard function. Second, piecewise exponential survival models partition the duration of follow-up into mutually exclusive intervals and fit a model that assumes that the hazard function is constant within each interval. This is equivalent to a Poisson regression model that incorporates the duration of exposure within each interval. By incorporating cluster-specific random effects, generalised linear mixed models can be used to analyse these data. Third, after partitioning the duration of follow-up into mutually exclusive intervals, one can use discrete time survival models that use a complementary log-log generalised linear model to model the occurrence of the outcome of interest within each interval. Random effects can be incorporated to account for within-cluster homogeneity in outcomes. We illustrate the application of these methods using data consisting of patients hospitalised with a heart attack. We illustrate the application of these methods using three statistical programming languages (R, SAS and Stata).

The effect of first chromosome long arm duplication on survival of endometrial carcinoma

PubMed Central

Sever, Erman; Doğer, Emek; Çakıroğlu, Yiğit; Sünnetçi, Deniz; Çine, Naci; Savlı, Hakan; Yücesoy, İzzet

2014-01-01

Objective: The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of first chromosome long arm duplication (dup(1q)) in cases with endometrial carcinoma detected with array based comperative genomic hybridization (aCGH) on survival from the cancer. Materials and Methods: A total of 53 patients with the diagnosis of endometrial carcinom due to endometrial biopsy and who have been operated for this reason have been allocated in the study. Frozen section biopsy and staging surgery have been performed for all the cases. Samples obtained from the tumoral mass have been investigated for chromosomal aberrations with aCGH method. Kaplan-Meier and Cox-regression analysis have been performed for survival analysis. Results: Among 53 cases with endometrial carcinomas, dup(1q) was diagnosed in 14 (26.4%) of the cases. For the patient group that has been followed-up for 24 months (3-33 months), dup(1q) (p=.01), optimal cytoreduction (p<.001), lymph node positivity (p=.006), tumor stage >1 (p=.006) and presence of high risk tumor were the factors that were associated with survival. Cox-regression analysis has revealed that optimal cytoreduction was the most important prognostic factor (p=.02). Conclusion: Presence of 1q duplication can be used as a prognostic factor in the preoperative period. PMID:28913021

Parametric analysis for matched pair survival data.

PubMed

Manatunga, A K; Oakes, D

1999-12-01

Hougaard's (1986) bivariate Weibull distribution with positive stable frailties is applied to matched pairs survival data when either or both components of the pair may be censored and covariate vectors may be of arbitrary fixed length. When there is no censoring, we quantify the corresponding gain in Fisher information over a fixed-effects analysis. With the appropriate parameterization, the results take a simple algebraic form. An alternative marginal ("independence working model") approach to estimation is also considered. This method ignores the correlation between the two survival times in the derivation of the estimator, but provides a valid estimate of standard error. It is shown that when both the correlation between the two survival times is high, and the ratio of the within-pair variability to the between-pair variability of the covariates is high, the fixed-effects analysis captures most of the information about the regression coefficient but the independence working model does badly. When the correlation is low, and/or most of the variability of the covariates occurs between pairs, the reverse is true. The random effects model is applied to data on skin grafts, and on loss of visual acuity among diabetics. In conclusion some extensions of the methods are indicated and they are placed in a wider context of Generalized Estimation Equation methodology.

Epithelial–mesenchymal transition-associated secretory phenotype predicts survival in lung cancer patients

PubMed Central

Reka, Ajaya Kumar; Chen, Guoan; Keshamouni, Venkateshwar G.

2014-01-01

In cancer cells, the process of epithelial–mesenchymal transition (EMT) confers migratory and invasive capacity, resistance to apoptosis, drug resistance, evasion of host immune surveillance and tumor stem cell traits. Cells undergoing EMT may represent tumor cells with metastatic potential. Characterizing the EMT secretome may identify biomarkers to monitor EMT in tumor progression and provide a prognostic signature to predict patient survival. Utilizing a transforming growth factor-β-induced cell culture model of EMT, we quantitatively profiled differentially secreted proteins, by GeLC-tandem mass spectrometry. Integrating with the corresponding transcriptome, we derived an EMT-associated secretory phenotype (EASP) comprising of proteins that were differentially upregulated both at protein and mRNA levels. Four independent primary tumor-derived gene expression data sets of lung cancers were used for survival analysis by the random survival forests (RSF) method. Analysis of 97-gene EASP expression in human lung adenocarcinoma tumors revealed strong positive correlations with lymph node metastasis, advanced tumor stage and histological grade. RSF analysis built on a training set (n = 442), including age, sex and stage as variables, stratified three independent lung cancer data sets into low-, medium- and high-risk groups with significant differences in overall survival. We further refined EASP to a 20 gene signature (rEASP) based on variable importance scores from RSF analysis. Similar to EASP, rEASP predicted survival of both adenocarcinoma and squamous carcinoma patients. More importantly, it predicted survival in the early-stage cancers. These results demonstrate that integrative analysis of the critical biological process of EMT provides mechanism-based and clinically relevant biomarkers with significant prognostic value. PMID:24510113

Gender in the allocation of organs in kidney transplants: meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Santiago, Erika Vieira Almeida e; Silveira, Micheline Rosa; de Araújo, Vânia Eloisa; Farah, Katia de Paula; Acurcio, Francisco de Assis; Ceccato, Maria das Graças Braga

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE To analyze whether gender influence survival results of kidney transplant grafts and patients. METHODS Systematic review with meta-analysis of cohort studies available on Medline (PubMed), LILACS, CENTRAL, and Embase databases, including manual searching and in the grey literature. The selection of studies and the collection of data were conducted twice by independent reviewers, and disagreements were settled by a third reviewer. Graft and patient survival rates were evaluated as effectiveness measurements. Meta-analysis was conducted with the Review Manager® 5.2 software, through the application of a random effects model. Recipient, donor, and donor-recipient gender comparisons were evaluated. RESULTS : Twenty-nine studies involving 765,753 patients were included. Regarding graft survival, those from male donors were observed to have longer survival rates as compared to the ones from female donors, only regarding a 10-year follow-up period. Comparison between recipient genders was not found to have significant differences on any evaluated follow-up periods. In the evaluation between donor-recipient genders, male donor-male recipient transplants were favored in a statistically significant way. No statistically significant differences were observed in regards to patient survival for gender comparisons in all follow-up periods evaluated. CONCLUSIONS The quantitative analysis of the studies suggests that donor or recipient genders, when evaluated isolatedly, do not influence patient or graft survival rates. However, the combination between donor-recipient genders may be a determining factor for graft survival. PMID:26465666

Survival after Second and Subsequent Recurrences in Osteosarcoma: A Retrospective Multicenter Analysis.

PubMed

Tirtei, Elisa; Asaftei, Sebastian D; Manicone, Rosaria; Cesari, Marilena; Paioli, Anna; Rocca, Michele; Ferrari, Stefano; Fagioli, Franca

2017-05-01

Purpose Osteosarcoma (OS) is the most common primary bone tumor. Despite complete surgical removal and intensive chemotherapeutic treatment, 30%-35% of patients with OS have local or systemic recurrence. Some patients survive multiple recurrences, but overall survival after OS recurrence is poor. This analysis aims to describe and identify factors influencing post-relapse survival (PRS) after a second OS relapse. Methods This is a retrospective analysis of 60 patients with a second relapse of OS of the extremities in 2 Italian centers between 2003 and 2013. Results Treatment for first and subsequent relapses was planned according to institutional guidelines. After complete surgical remission (CSR) following the first recurrence, patients experienced a second OS relapse with a median disease-free interval (DFI) of 6 months. Lung disease was prevalent: 44 patients (76%) had pulmonary metastases. Survival after the second relapse was 22% at 5 years. Lung disease only correlated with better survival at 5 years (33.6%) compared with other sites of recurrence (5%; p = 0.008). Patients with a single pulmonary lesion had a better 5-year second PRS (42%; p = 0.02). Patients who achieved a second CSR had a 5-year second PRS of 33.4%. Chemotherapy (p<0.001) benefited patients without a third CSR. Conclusions This analysis confirms the importance of an aggressive, repeated surgical approach. Lung metastases only, the number of lesions, DFI and CSR influenced survival. It also confirms the importance of chemotherapy in patients in whom surgical treatment is not feasible.

Estimating the average treatment effect on survival based on observational data and using partly conditional modeling.

PubMed

Gong, Qi; Schaubel, Douglas E

2017-03-01

Treatments are frequently evaluated in terms of their effect on patient survival. In settings where randomization of treatment is not feasible, observational data are employed, necessitating correction for covariate imbalances. Treatments are usually compared using a hazard ratio. Most existing methods which quantify the treatment effect through the survival function are applicable to treatments assigned at time 0. In the data structure of our interest, subjects typically begin follow-up untreated; time-until-treatment, and the pretreatment death hazard are both heavily influenced by longitudinal covariates; and subjects may experience periods of treatment ineligibility. We propose semiparametric methods for estimating the average difference in restricted mean survival time attributable to a time-dependent treatment, the average effect of treatment among the treated, under current treatment assignment patterns. The pre- and posttreatment models are partly conditional, in that they use the covariate history up to the time of treatment. The pre-treatment model is estimated through recently developed landmark analysis methods. For each treated patient, fitted pre- and posttreatment survival curves are projected out, then averaged in a manner which accounts for the censoring of treatment times. Asymptotic properties are derived and evaluated through simulation. The proposed methods are applied to liver transplant data in order to estimate the effect of liver transplantation on survival among transplant recipients under current practice patterns. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Breast cancer leptomeningeal metastasis: the results of combined treatment and the comparison of methotrexate and liposomal cytarabine as intra-cerebrospinal fluid chemotherapy.

PubMed

Niwińska, Anna; Rudnicka, Halina; Murawska, Magdalena

2015-02-01

This was a prospective observational study to assess the results of the treatment of patients with breast cancer leptomeningeal metastasis (LM) and to compare the efficacy of methotrexate and liposomal cytarabine in patients treated intrathecally by lumbar puncture. In this prospective observational study, 149 consecutive patients with breast cancer and LM treated between the years 1999 and 2011 were assessed. Multimodality treatment methods were used: systemic therapy in 77 patients, radiotherapy in 92 patients, intrathecal methotrexate in 81 patients, and intrathecal liposomal cytarabine in 15 patients. The median survival of all patients was 4.2 months. The median survival of patients in whom systemic intravenous/oral treatment was used was 6 months, in those who did not have systemic treatment, the median survival was 2 months (P < .001). The median survival of patients treated with intrathecal methotrexate was 4.2 months; in patients treated with intrathecal liposomal cytarabine, the median survival was 4.6 months, and in patients who did not receive intrathecal treatment, the median survival was 3.7 months (P = .717). Median survival after whole-brain radiotherapy was 4.6 months and with no radiotherapy, it was 3.2 months (P = .028). Multivariate analysis revealed a Karnofsky performance status (KPS) of > 70. Systemic intravenous/oral treatment and bone as a site of metastasis were factors prolonging survival from LM. Among treatment methods, only systemic therapy prolonged survival in patients with LM. Neither radiotherapy nor lumbar intrathecal therapy influenced survival in those patients; however, both methods alleviated signs and symptoms of LM. No difference in survival was observed in patients treated intrathecally with methotrexate and those treated with liposomal cytarabine. Treatment with both drugs was comparable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Remote sensing and avian influenza: A review of image processing methods for extracting key variables affecting avian influenza virus survival in water from Earth Observation satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tran, Annelise; Goutard, Flavie; Chamaillé, Lise; Baghdadi, Nicolas; Lo Seen, Danny

2010-02-01

Recent studies have highlighted the potential role of water in the transmission of avian influenza (AI) viruses and the existence of often interacting variables that determine the survival rate of these viruses in water; the two main variables are temperature and salinity. Remote sensing has been used to map and monitor water bodies for several decades. In this paper, we review satellite image analysis methods used for water detection and characterization, focusing on the main variables that influence AI virus survival in water. Optical and radar imagery are useful for detecting water bodies at different spatial and temporal scales. Methods to monitor the temperature of large water surfaces are also available. Current methods for estimating other relevant water variables such as salinity, pH, turbidity and water depth are not presently considered to be effective.

Vulnerability survival analysis: a novel approach to vulnerability management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farris, Katheryn A.; Sullivan, John; Cybenko, George

2017-05-01

Computer security vulnerabilities span across large, enterprise networks and have to be mitigated by security engineers on a routine basis. Presently, security engineers will assess their "risk posture" through quantifying the number of vulnerabilities with a high Common Vulnerability Severity Score (CVSS). Yet, little to no attention is given to the length of time by which vulnerabilities persist and survive on the network. In this paper, we review a novel approach to quantifying the length of time a vulnerability persists on the network, its time-to-death, and predictors of lower vulnerability survival rates. Our contribution is unique in that we apply the cox proportional hazards regression model to real data from an operational IT environment. This paper provides a mathematical overview of the theory behind survival analysis methods, a description of our vulnerability data, and an interpretation of the results.

Meta-analysis for aggregated survival data with competing risks: a parametric approach using cumulative incidence functions.

PubMed

Bonofiglio, Federico; Beyersmann, Jan; Schumacher, Martin; Koller, Michael; Schwarzer, Guido

2016-09-01

Meta-analysis of a survival endpoint is typically based on the pooling of hazard ratios (HRs). If competing risks occur, the HRs may lose translation into changes of survival probability. The cumulative incidence functions (CIFs), the expected proportion of cause-specific events over time, re-connect the cause-specific hazards (CSHs) to the probability of each event type. We use CIF ratios to measure treatment effect on each event type. To retrieve information on aggregated, typically poorly reported, competing risks data, we assume constant CSHs. Next, we develop methods to pool CIF ratios across studies. The procedure computes pooled HRs alongside and checks the influence of follow-up time on the analysis. We apply the method to a medical example, showing that follow-up duration is relevant both for pooled cause-specific HRs and CIF ratios. Moreover, if all-cause hazard and follow-up time are large enough, CIF ratios may reveal additional information about the effect of treatment on the cumulative probability of each event type. Finally, to improve the usefulness of such analysis, better reporting of competing risks data is needed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Modeling the Impact of Breast-Feeding by HIV-Infected Women on Child Survival.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heymann, Sally Jody

1990-01-01

Models the survival outcomes of children in developing countries born to women infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) who are breast-fed, bottle-fed, and wet-nursed. Uses decision analysis to assess the relative risk of child mortality from HIV transmission and non-HIV causes associated with different methods of feeding. (FMW)

Vitamin D receptor polymorphisms and survival in patients with cutaneous melanoma: a population-based study.

PubMed

Orlow, Irene; Reiner, Anne S; Thomas, Nancy E; Roy, Pampa; Kanetsky, Peter A; Luo, Li; Paine, Susan; Armstrong, Bruce K; Kricker, Anne; Marrett, Loraine D; Rosso, Stefano; Zanetti, Roberto; Gruber, Stephen B; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Gallagher, Richard P; Dwyer, Terence; Busam, Klaus; Begg, Colin B; Berwick, Marianne

2016-01-01

Factors known to affect melanoma survival include age at presentation, sex and tumor characteristics. Polymorphisms also appear to modulate survival following diagnosis. Result from other studies suggest that vitamin D receptor (VDR) polymorphisms (SNPs) impact survival in patients with glioma, renal cell carcinoma, lung, breast, prostate and other cancers; however, a comprehensive study of VDR polymorphisms and melanoma-specific survival is lacking. We aimed to investigate whether VDR genetic variation influences survival in patients with cutaneous melanoma. The analysis involved 3566 incident single and multiple primary melanoma cases enrolled in the international population-based Genes, Environment, and Melanoma Study. Melanoma-specific survival outcomes were calculated for each of 38 VDR SNPs using a competing risk analysis after adjustment for covariates. There were 254 (7.1%) deaths due to melanoma during the median 7.6 years follow-up period. VDR SNPs rs7299460, rs3782905, rs2239182, rs12370156, rs2238140, rs7305032, rs1544410 (BsmI) and rs731236 (TaqI) each had a statistically significant (trend P values < 0.05) association with melanoma-specific survival in multivariate analysis. One functional SNP (rs2239182) remained significant after adjustment for multiple testing using the Monte Carlo method. None of the SNPs associated with survival were significantly associated with Breslow thickness, ulceration or mitosis. These results suggest that the VDR gene may influence survival from melanoma, although the mechanism by which VDR exerts its effect does not seem driven by tumor aggressiveness. Further investigations are needed to confirm our results and to understand the relationship between VDR and survival in the combined context of tumor and host characteristics. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Vitamin D receptor polymorphisms and survival in patients with cutaneous melanoma: a population-based study

PubMed Central

Orlow, Irene; Reiner, Anne S.; Thomas, Nancy E.; Roy, Pampa; Kanetsky, Peter A.; Luo, Li; Paine, Susan; Armstrong, Bruce K.; Kricker, Anne; Marrett, Loraine D.; Rosso, Stefano; Zanetti, Roberto; Gruber, Stephen B.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Gallagher, Richard P.; Dwyer, Terence; Busam, Klaus; Begg, Colin B.; Berwick, Marianne

2016-01-01

Factors known to affect melanoma survival include age at presentation, sex and tumor characteristics. Polymorphisms also appear to modulate survival following diagnosis. Result from other studies suggest that vitamin D receptor (VDR) polymorphisms (SNPs) impact survival in patients with glioma, renal cell carcinoma, lung, breast, prostate and other cancers; however, a comprehensive study of VDR polymorphisms and melanoma-specific survival is lacking. We aimed to investigate whether VDR genetic variation influences survival in patients with cutaneous melanoma. The analysis involved 3566 incident single and multiple primary melanoma cases enrolled in the international population-based Genes, Environment, and Melanoma Study. Melanoma-specific survival outcomes were calculated for each of 38 VDR SNPs using a competing risk analysis after adjustment for covariates. There were 254 (7.1%) deaths due to melanoma during the median 7.6 years follow-up period. VDR SNPs rs7299460, rs3782905, rs2239182, rs12370156, rs2238140, rs7305032, rs1544410 (BsmI) and rs731236 (TaqI) each had a statistically significant (trend P values < 0.05) association with melanoma-specific survival in multivariate analysis. One functional SNP (rs2239182) remained significant after adjustment for multiple testing using the Monte Carlo method. None of the SNPs associated with survival were significantly associated with Breslow thickness, ulceration or mitosis. These results suggest that the VDR gene may influence survival from melanoma, although the mechanism by which VDR exerts its effect does not seem driven by tumor aggressiveness. Further investigations are needed to confirm our results and to understand the relationship between VDR and survival in the combined context of tumor and host characteristics. PMID:26521212

Statistical methods for astronomical data with upper limits. II - Correlation and regression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Isobe, T.; Feigelson, E. D.; Nelson, P. I.

1986-01-01

Statistical methods for calculating correlations and regressions in bivariate censored data where the dependent variable can have upper or lower limits are presented. Cox's regression and the generalization of Kendall's rank correlation coefficient provide significant levels of correlations, and the EM algorithm, under the assumption of normally distributed errors, and its nonparametric analog using the Kaplan-Meier estimator, give estimates for the slope of a regression line. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that survival analysis is reliable in determining correlations between luminosities at different bands. Survival analysis is applied to CO emission in infrared galaxies, X-ray emission in radio galaxies, H-alpha emission in cooling cluster cores, and radio emission in Seyfert galaxies.

Prognostic and survival analysis of 837 Chinese colorectal cancer patients.

PubMed

Yuan, Ying; Li, Mo-Dan; Hu, Han-Guang; Dong, Cai-Xia; Chen, Jia-Qi; Li, Xiao-Fen; Li, Jing-Jing; Shen, Hong

2013-05-07

To develop a prognostic model to predict survival of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). Survival data of 837 CRC patients undergoing surgery between 1996 and 2006 were collected and analyzed by univariate analysis and Cox proportional hazard regression model to reveal the prognostic factors for CRC. All data were recorded using a standard data form and analyzed using SPSS version 18.0 (SPSS, Chicago, IL, United States). Survival curves were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. The log rank test was used to assess differences in survival. Univariate hazard ratios and significant and independent predictors of disease-specific survival and were identified by Cox proportional hazard analysis. The stepwise procedure was set to a threshold of 0.05. Statistical significance was defined as P < 0.05. The survival rate was 74% at 3 years and 68% at 5 years. The results of univariate analysis suggested age, preoperative obstruction, serum carcinoembryonic antigen level at diagnosis, status of resection, tumor size, histological grade, pathological type, lymphovascular invasion, invasion of adjacent organs, and tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging were positive prognostic factors (P < 0.05). Lymph node ratio (LNR) was also a strong prognostic factor in stage III CRC (P < 0.0001). We divided 341 stage III patients into three groups according to LNR values (LNR1, LNR ≤ 0.33, n = 211; LNR2, LNR 0.34-0.66, n = 76; and LNR3, LNR ≥ 0.67, n = 54). Univariate analysis showed a significant statistical difference in 3-year survival among these groups: LNR1, 73%; LNR2, 55%; and LNR3, 42% (P < 0.0001). The multivariate analysis results showed that histological grade, depth of bowel wall invasion, and number of metastatic lymph nodes were the most important prognostic factors for CRC if we did not consider the interaction of the TNM staging system (P < 0.05). When the TNM staging was taken into account, histological grade lost its statistical significance, while the specific TNM staging system showed a statistically significant difference (P < 0.0001). The overall survival of CRC patients has improved between 1996 and 2006. LNR is a powerful factor for estimating the survival of stage III CRC patients.

Markov chains and semi-Markov models in time-to-event analysis.

PubMed

Abner, Erin L; Charnigo, Richard J; Kryscio, Richard J

2013-10-25

A variety of statistical methods are available to investigators for analysis of time-to-event data, often referred to as survival analysis. Kaplan-Meier estimation and Cox proportional hazards regression are commonly employed tools but are not appropriate for all studies, particularly in the presence of competing risks and when multiple or recurrent outcomes are of interest. Markov chain models can accommodate censored data, competing risks (informative censoring), multiple outcomes, recurrent outcomes, frailty, and non-constant survival probabilities. Markov chain models, though often overlooked by investigators in time-to-event analysis, have long been used in clinical studies and have widespread application in other fields.

Markov chains and semi-Markov models in time-to-event analysis

PubMed Central

Abner, Erin L.; Charnigo, Richard J.; Kryscio, Richard J.

2014-01-01

A variety of statistical methods are available to investigators for analysis of time-to-event data, often referred to as survival analysis. Kaplan-Meier estimation and Cox proportional hazards regression are commonly employed tools but are not appropriate for all studies, particularly in the presence of competing risks and when multiple or recurrent outcomes are of interest. Markov chain models can accommodate censored data, competing risks (informative censoring), multiple outcomes, recurrent outcomes, frailty, and non-constant survival probabilities. Markov chain models, though often overlooked by investigators in time-to-event analysis, have long been used in clinical studies and have widespread application in other fields. PMID:24818062

Mare and foal survival and subsequent fertility of mares treated for uterine torsion.

PubMed

Spoormakers, T J P; Graat, E A M; ter Braake, F; Stout, T A E; Bergman, H J

2016-03-01

Previous surveys have reported that mare and foal survival after correction of uterine torsion (UT) varies from 60 to 84% and from 30 to 54%, respectively. Furthermore, resolution via a standing flank laparotomy (SFL) has been associated with better foal, but not mare, survival. To compare the success of SFL with other correction methods (e.g. midline or flank laparotomy under general anaesthesia; correction per vaginam). Retrospective analysis of clinical records. Data on correction technique, stage of gestation, degree of rotation, survival and subsequent fertility for 189 mares treated for UT at 3 equine referral hospitals in The Netherlands during 1987-2007 were analysed. Mean stage of gestation at diagnosis was 283 days (range 153-369 days), with the majority of UTs (77.5%) occurring before Day 320 of gestation. After correction of UT, 90.5% of mares and 82.3% of foals survived to hospital discharge, between 3 and 39 days later, and to foaling. Multivariable logistic regression indicated that correction method and stage of gestation at UT affected survival of foals and mares. For foals, survival was 88.7% after SFL compared with 35.0% after other methods (P = 0.001). When UT occurred at <320 days, 90.6% of foals survived, compared with 56.1% at ≥320 days (P = 0.007). For mare survival, an interaction between stage of gestation and correction method was detected (P = 0.02), with higher survival after SFL (97.1%) than other methods (50.0%) at <320 days of gestation (P<0.01). When UT occurred at ≥320 days, mare survival did not differ between techniques (76.0 vs. 68.8%; P = 0.6). Of 123 mares that were bred again, 93.5% became pregnant; fertility did not differ between mares treated by SFL (93.9%) and other techniques (87.5%; P = 0.9). Standing flank laparotomy is the surgical technique of choice for resolving uncomplicated equine UT (i.e. with no coexisting gastrointestinal lesions) except when the stage of gestation exceeds 320 days. © 2015 EVJ Ltd.

Propensity Score Analysis Comparing Videothoracoscopic Lobectomy With Thoracotomy: A French Nationwide Study.

PubMed

Pagès, Pierre-Benoit; Delpy, Jean-Philippe; Orsini, Bastien; Gossot, Dominique; Baste, Jean-Marc; Thomas, Pascal; Dahan, Marcel; Bernard, Alain

2016-04-01

Video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) lobectomy has recently become the recommended approach for stage I non-small cell lung cancer. However, these guidelines are not based on any large randomized control trial. Our study used propensity scores and a sensitivity analysis to compare VATS lobectomy with open thoracotomy. From 2005 to 2012, 24,811 patients (95.1%) were operated on by open thoracotomy and 1,278 (4.9%) by VATS. The end points were 30-day postoperative death, postoperative complications, hospital stay, overall survival, and disease-free survival. Two propensity scores analyses were performed: matching and inverse probability of treatment weighting, and one sensitivity analysis to unmask potential hidden bias. A subgroup analysis was performed to compare "high-risk" with "low-risk" patients. Results are reported by odds ratios or hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. Postoperative death was not significantly reduced by VATS whatever the analysis. Concerning postoperative complications, VATS significantly decreased the occurrence of atelectasis and pneumopathy with both analysis methods, but there were no differences in the occurrence of other postoperative complications. VATS did not provide a benefit for high-risk patients. The VATS approach decreased the hospital length of stay from 2.4 days (95% confidence interval, -1.7 to -3 days) to -4.68 days (95% confidence interval, -8.5 to 0.9 days). Overall survival and disease-free survival were not influenced by the surgical approach. The sensitivity analysis showed potential biases. The results must be interpreted carefully because of the differences observed according to the propensity scores method used. A multicenter randomized controlled trial is necessary to limit the biases. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Novel glioblastoma markers with diagnostic and prognostic value identified through transcriptome analysis.

PubMed

Reddy, Sreekanth P; Britto, Ramona; Vinnakota, Katyayni; Aparna, Hebbar; Sreepathi, Hari Kishore; Thota, Balaram; Kumari, Arpana; Shilpa, B M; Vrinda, M; Umesh, Srikantha; Samuel, Cini; Shetty, Mitesh; Tandon, Ashwani; Pandey, Paritosh; Hegde, Sridevi; Hegde, A S; Balasubramaniam, Anandh; Chandramouli, B A; Santosh, Vani; Kondaiah, Paturu; Somasundaram, Kumaravel; Rao, M R Satyanarayana

2008-05-15

Current methods of classification of astrocytoma based on histopathologic methods are often subjective and less accurate. Although patients with glioblastoma have grave prognosis, significant variability in patient outcome is observed. Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify glioblastoma diagnostic and prognostic markers through microarray analysis. We carried out transcriptome analysis of 25 diffusely infiltrating astrocytoma samples [WHO grade II--diffuse astrocytoma, grade III--anaplastic astrocytoma, and grade IV--glioblastoma (GBM)] using cDNA microarrays containing 18,981 genes. Several of the markers identified were also validated by real-time reverse transcription quantitative PCR and immunohistochemical analysis on an independent set of tumor samples (n = 100). Survival analysis was carried out for two markers on another independent set of retrospective cases (n = 51). We identified several differentially regulated grade-specific genes. Independent validation by real-time reverse transcription quantitative PCR analysis found growth arrest and DNA-damage-inducible alpha (GADD45alpha) and follistatin-like 1 (FSTL1) to be up-regulated in most GBMs (both primary and secondary), whereas superoxide dismutase 2 and adipocyte enhancer binding protein 1 were up-regulated in the majority of primary GBM. Further, identification of the grade-specific expression of GADD45alpha and FSTL1 by immunohistochemical staining reinforced our findings. Analysis of retrospective GBM cases with known survival data revealed that cytoplasmic overexpression of GADD45alpha conferred better survival while the coexpression of FSTL1 with p53 was associated with poor survival. Our study reveals that GADD45alpha and FSTLI are GBM-specific whereas superoxide dismutase 2 and adipocyte enhancer binding protein 1 are primary GBM-specific diagnostic markers. Whereas GADD45alpha overexpression confers a favorable prognosis, FSTL1 overexpression is a hallmark of poor prognosis in GBM patients.

Prognostic Significance of the Number of Positive Lymph Nodes in Women With T1-2N1 Breast Cancer Treated With Mastectomy: Should Patients With 1, 2, and 3 Positive Lymph Nodes Be Grouped Together?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dai Kubicky, Charlotte, E-mail: charlottedai@gmail.com; Mongoue-Tchokote, Solange

2013-04-01

Purpose: To determine whether patients with 1, 2, or 3 positive lymph nodes (LNs) have similar survival outcomes. Methods and Materials: We analyzed the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry of breast cancer patients diagnosed between 1990 and 2003. We identified 10,415 women with T1-2N1M0 breast cancer who were treated with mastectomy with no adjuvant radiation, with at least 10 LNs examined and 6 months of follow-up. The Kaplan-Meier method and log–rank test were used for survival analysis. Multivariate analysis was performed using the Cox proportional hazard model. Results: Median follow-up was 92 months. Ten-year overall survival (OS) and cause-specificmore » survival (CSS) were progressively worse with increasing number of positive LNs. Survival rates were 70%, 64%, and 60% (OS), and 82%, 76%, and 72% (CSS) for 1, 2, and 3 positive LNs, respectively. Pairwise log–rank test P values were <.001 (1 vs 2 positive LNs), <.001 (1 vs 3 positive LNs), and .002 (2 vs 3 positive LNs). Multivariate analysis showed that number of positive LNs was a significant predictor of OS and CSS. Hazard ratios increased with the number of positive LNs. In addition, age, primary tumor size, grade, estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor status, race, and year of diagnosis were significant prognostic factors. Conclusions: Our study suggests that patients with 1, 2, and 3 positive LNs have distinct survival outcomes, with increasing number of positive LNs associated with worse OS and CSS. The conventional grouping of 1-3 positive LNs needs to be reconsidered.« less

Development and Validation of a qRT-PCR Classifier for Lung Cancer Prognosis

PubMed Central

Chen, Guoan; Kim, Sinae; Taylor, Jeremy MG; Wang, Zhuwen; Lee, Oliver; Ramnath, Nithya; Reddy, Rishindra M; Lin, Jules; Chang, Andrew C; Orringer, Mark B; Beer, David G

2011-01-01

Purpose This prospective study aimed to develop a robust and clinically-applicable method to identify high-risk early stage lung cancer patients and then to validate this method for use in future translational studies. Patients and Methods Three published Affymetrix microarray data sets representing 680 primary tumors were used in the survival-related gene selection procedure using clustering, Cox model and random survival forest (RSF) analysis. A final set of 91 genes was selected and tested as a predictor of survival using a qRT-PCR-based assay utilizing an independent cohort of 101 lung adenocarcinomas. Results The RSF model built from 91 genes in the training set predicted patient survival in an independent cohort of 101 lung adenocarcinomas, with a prediction error rate of 26.6%. The mortality risk index (MRI) was significantly related to survival (Cox model p < 0.00001) and separated all patients into low, medium, and high-risk groups (HR = 1.00, 2.82, 4.42). The MRI was also related to survival in stage 1 patients (Cox model p = 0.001), separating patients into low, medium, and high-risk groups (HR = 1.00, 3.29, 3.77). Conclusions The development and validation of this robust qRT-PCR platform allows prediction of patient survival with early stage lung cancer. Utilization will now allow investigators to evaluate it prospectively by incorporation into new clinical trials with the goal of personalized treatment of lung cancer patients and improving patient survival. PMID:21792073

Marital status and survival of patients with oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma: a population-based study

PubMed Central

Shi, Xiao; Zhang, Ting-ting; Hu, Wei-ping; Ji, Qing-hai

2017-01-01

Background The relationship between marital status and oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC) survival has not been explored. The objective of our study was to evaluate the impact of marital status on OCSCC survival and investigate the potential mechanisms. Results Married patients had better 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) (66.7% vs 54.9%) and 5-year overall survival (OS) (56.0% vs 41.1%). In multivariate Cox regression models, unmarried patients also showed higher mortality risk for both CSS (Hazard Ratio [HR]: 1.260, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.187–1.339, P < 0.001) and OS (HR: 1.328, 95% CI: 1.266–1.392, P < 0.001). Multivariate logistic regression showed married patients were more likely to be diagnosed at earlier stage (P < 0.001) and receive surgery (P < 0.001). Married patients still demonstrated better prognosis in the 1:1 matched group analysis (CSS: 62.9% vs 60.8%, OS: 52.3% vs 46.5%). Materials and Methods 11022 eligible OCSCC patients were identified from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, including 5902 married and 5120 unmarried individuals. Kaplan-Meier analysis, Log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards regression model were used to analyze survival and mortality risk. Influence of marital status on stage, age at diagnosis and selection of treatment was determined by binomial and multinomial logistic regression. Propensity score matching method was adopted to perform a 1:1 matched cohort. Conclusions Marriage has an independently protective effect on OCSCC survival. Earlier diagnosis and more sufficient treatment are possible explanations. Besides, even after 1:1 matching, survival advantage of married group still exists, indicating that spousal support from other aspects may also play an important role. PMID:28415710

Clinical Characteristics of Malignant Melanoma in Southwest China: A Single-Center Series of 82 Consecutive Cases and a Meta-Analysis of 958 Reported Cases

PubMed Central

Huang, Hui; Zhai, Zhifang; Shen, Zhu; Lin, Hui

2016-01-01

Purpose The present study determined the clinical characteristics and prognostic factors in patients with malignant melanoma based on a series of 82 cases from January 2009 to December 2014 in Southwest Hospital and a meta-analysis (including 12 articles) involving 958 patients in China. Materials and methods The database elements included basic demographic data and prognosticators which were extracted from medical records. Statistical analyses of survival, and multivariate analyses of factors associated with survival were performed using the Kaplan—Meier method, and the Cox proportional hazard model, respectively. Literatures were identified through systematic searches in PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) and Weipu database (VIP) database for the period from inception to December 2015. The meta-analysis was conducted using R 3.1.1 meta-analysis software Results In this series of 82 cases, the median age of the patients was 57.50 years. Melanoma was located in the foot in 79% of patients. Sixty-one patients (74.4%) were classified as stage II-III. Thirty-two patients (39.0%) had acral malignant melanoma, and 31 patients (37.8%) had nodular malignant melanoma. The clinical characteristics of melanoma were similar to those in areas outside southwest China (from results of the meta-analysis). The median survival time was 29.50 months. The 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival rates were 84.1%, 39.0% and 10.9%, respectively. COX regression following multi-factor analysis showed that ulcer, tumor boundary and lymph node metastasis were associated with prognosis. Conclusions The clinical characteristics of melanoma in Chinese were different from those in Caucasians. Ulcer, tumor margins, and lymph node metastasis were significantly associated with prognosis. Immune therapy may prolong the median survival time of patients with acral melanoma, nodular melanoma, or stage I-III disease, although these differences were not statistically significant. PMID:27861496

An expanded portfolio of survival metrics for assessing anticancer agents.

PubMed

Karweit, Jennifer; Kotapati, Srividya; Wagner, Samuel; Shaw, James W; Wolfe, Steffan W; Abernethy, Amy P

2017-01-01

With the introduction of more effective anticancer agents that prolong survival, there is a need for new methods to define the clinical value of treatments. The objective of this preliminary qualitative and quantitative analysis was to assess the utility of an expanded portfolio of survival metrics to differentiate the value of anticancer agents. A literature review was conducted of phase 3 trial data, reported in regulatory submissions within the last 10 years of agents for 6 metastatic cancers (breast cancer, colorectal cancer [CRC], melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer [NSCLC], prostate cancer [PC], and renal cell cancer [RCC]). A new, simplified cost-value analysis tool was applied using survival outcomes and total drug costs. Metrics included median overall survival (OS), mean OS, 1-year survival rate, and number needed to treat (NNT) to avoid 1 death at 1 year. Survival results were compiled and compared both within and across trials by tumor type. Total drug costs were calculated by multiplying each agent's cost per month (from October/November 2013, based on the database Price Rx/Medi-Span) by duration of therapy. Relative clinical value for each agent was not consistent across survival outcomes. In 3 tumor types, both the highest improvement in median OS and the highest improvement in mean OS occurred with the same anticancer agent (ipilimumab with melanoma, pemetrexed with NSCLC, and sunitinib with RCC); the highest improvement in the 1-year survival rate and the lowest NNT occurred together with the same anticancer agent in 5 tumor types (bevacizumab with CRC, ipilimumab with melanoma, erlotinib with NSCLC, abiraterone with PC, and temsirolimus with RCC). In the cost-value analysis, agents were inconsistent and achieved a high relative value with some survival outcomes, but not others. This analysis suggests that any 1 metric may not completely characterize the expected survival benefit of all patients. The cost-value analysis tool may be applied to trial data and may be useful in helping to make treatment decisions, regardless of the agent's effectiveness. A combined metric will be needed, as well as further research that includes more mature data, other tumor types, and emerging treatments.

Gender, Race, and Survival: A Study in Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Brain Metastases Patients Utilizing the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group Recursive Partitioning Analysis Classification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Videtic, Gregory M.M., E-mail: videtig@ccf.or; Reddy, Chandana A.; Chao, Samuel T.

Purpose: To explore whether gender and race influence survival in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in patients with brain metastases, using our large single-institution brain tumor database and the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) brain metastases classification. Methods and materials: A retrospective review of a single-institution brain metastasis database for the interval January 1982 to September 2004 yielded 835 NSCLC patients with brain metastases for analysis. Patient subsets based on combinations of gender, race, and RPA class were then analyzed for survival differences. Results: Median follow-up was 5.4 months (range, 0-122.9 months). There were 485 male patients (M)more » (58.4%) and 346 female patients (F) (41.6%). Of the 828 evaluable patients (99%), 143 (17%) were black/African American (B) and 685 (83%) were white/Caucasian (W). Median survival time (MST) from time of brain metastasis diagnosis for all patients was 5.8 months. Median survival time by gender (F vs. M) and race (W vs. B) was 6.3 months vs. 5.5 months (p = 0.013) and 6.0 months vs. 5.2 months (p = 0.08), respectively. For patients stratified by RPA class, gender, and race, MST significantly favored BFs over BMs in Class II: 11.2 months vs. 4.6 months (p = 0.021). On multivariable analysis, significant variables were gender (p = 0.041, relative risk [RR] 0.83) and RPA class (p < 0.0001, RR 0.28 for I vs. III; p < 0.0001, RR 0.51 for II vs. III) but not race. Conclusions: Gender significantly influences NSCLC brain metastasis survival. Race trended to significance in overall survival but was not significant on multivariable analysis. Multivariable analysis identified gender and RPA classification as significant variables with respect to survival.« less

The Role of Postoperative Radiation Therapy in the Treatment of Meningeal Hemangiopericytoma—Experience From the SEER Database

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stessin, Alexander M.; Sison, Cristina; Nieto, Jaime

2013-03-01

Purpose: The aim of this study was to examine the effect of postoperative radiation therapy (RT) on cause-specific survival in patients with meningeal hemangiopericytomas. Methods and Materials: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from 1990-2008 was queried for cases of surgically resected central nervous system hemangiopericytoma. Patient demographics, tumor location, and extent of resection were included in the analysis as covariates. The Kaplan-Meier product-limit method was used to analyze cause-specific survival. A Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was conducted to determine which factors were associated with cause-specific survival. Results: The mean follow-up time is 7.9 years (95 months). Theremore » were 76 patients included in the analysis, of these, 38 (50%) underwent gross total resection (GTR), whereas the other half underwent subtotal resection (STR). Postoperative RT was administered to 42% (16/38) of the patients in the GTR group and 50% (19/38) in the STR group. The 1-year, 10-year, and 20-year cause-specific survival rates were 99%, 75%, and 43%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, postoperative RT was associated with significantly better survival (HR = 0.269, 95% CI 0.084-0.862; P=.027), in particular for patients who underwent STR (HR = 0.088, 95% CI: 0.015-0.528; P<.008). Conclusions: In the absence of large prospective trials, the current clinical decision-making of hemangiopericytoma is mostly based on retrospective data. We recommend that postoperative RT be considered after subtotal resection for patients who could tolerate it. Based on the current literature, the practical approach is to deliver limited field RT to doses of 50-60 Gy while respecting the normal tissue tolerance. Further investigations are clearly needed to determine the optimal therapeutic strategy.« less

Pre-treatment plasma proteomic markers associated with survival in oesophageal cancer

PubMed Central

Kelly, P; Paulin, F; Lamont, D; Baker, L; Clearly, S; Exon, D; Thompson, A

2012-01-01

Background: The incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma is increasing worldwide but survival remains poor. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy can improve survival, but prognostic and predictive biomarkers are required. This study built upon preclinical approaches to identify prognostic plasma proteomic markers in oesophageal cancer. Methods: Plasma samples collected before and during the treatment of oesophageal cancer and non-cancer controls were analysed by surface-enhanced laser desorption/ionisation time-of-flight (SELDI-TOF) mass spectroscopy (MS). Protein peaks were identified by MS in tryptic digests of purified fractions. Associations between peak intensities obtained in the spectra and clinical endpoints (survival, disease-free survival) were tested by univariate (Fisher's exact test) and multivariate analysis (binary logistic regression). Results: Plasma protein peaks were identified that differed significantly (P<0.05, ANOVA) between the oesophageal cancer and control groups at baseline. Three peaks, confirmed as apolipoprotein A-I, serum amyloid A and transthyretin, in baseline (pre-treatment) samples were associated by univariate and multivariate analysis with disease-free survival and overall survival. Conclusion: Plasma proteins can be detected prior to treatment for oesophageal cancer that are associated with outcome and merit testing as prognostic and predictive markers of response to guide chemotherapy in oesophageal cancer. PMID:22294182

Conditional survival analysis of hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with radiofrequency ablation.

PubMed

Facciorusso, Antonio; Del Prete, Valentina; Antonino, Matteo; Neve, Viviana; Amoruso, Annabianca; Crucinio, Nicola; Di Leo, Alfredo; Barone, Michele

2015-10-01

Survival estimates are commonly reported as survival from the first observation, but future survival probability changes based on the survival time already accumulated after therapy, otherwise known as conditional survival (CS). The aim of the study was to describe CS according to different prognostic variables in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients treated with radiofrequency ablation (RFA). Data on 125 very early/early HCC patients treated with RFA between 1999 and 2007 were analyzed. Actuarial survival estimates were computed by means of Kaplan-Meier method and compared by log-rank test. The 5-year CS was calculated with stratification by several predictors for patients who had already survived up to 5 years from diagnosis. Median overall survival (OS) was 72 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 58-86). Age, Child-Pugh (CP), α-fetoprotein (AFP), Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) score and type of recurrence (early vs late) were significant predictors of OS. The 5-year CS rates of the entire study cohort assessed at 1, 2, 3 and 5 years from the treatment were 49%, 48%, 30% and 34%, respectively. Subgroup analysis confirmed age and CP as significant predictors of CS at all time points, while the CS of subgroups stratified by AFP and CLIP did not differ significantly from the 3rd year after RFA onward, as more advanced patients had probably escaped early recurrence. CS analysis showed that the impact of different variables influencing OS is not linear over time after RFA. Information derived from the study can improve the current management of HCC patients. © 2014 The Japan Society of Hepatology.

Critical appraisal of laparoscopic vs open rectal cancer surgery

PubMed Central

Tan, Winson Jianhong; Chew, Min Hoe; Dharmawan, Angela Renayanti; Singh, Manraj; Acharyya, Sanchalika; Loi, Carol Tien Tau; Tang, Choong Leong

2016-01-01

AIM: To evaluate the long-term clinical and oncological outcomes of laparoscopic rectal resection (LRR) and the impact of conversion in patients with rectal cancer. METHODS: An analysis was performed on a prospective database of 633 consecutive patients with rectal cancer who underwent surgical resection. Patients were compared in three groups: Open surgery (OP), laparoscopic surgery, and converted laparoscopic surgery. Short-term outcomes, long-term outcomes, and survival analysis were compared. RESULTS: Among 633 patients studied, 200 patients had successful laparoscopic resections with a conversion rate of 11.1% (25 out of 225). Factors predictive of survival on univariate analysis include the laparoscopic approach (P = 0.016), together with factors such as age, ASA status, stage of disease, tumor grade, presence of perineural invasion and vascular emboli, circumferential resection margin < 2 mm, and postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy. The survival benefit of laparoscopic surgery was no longer significant on multivariate analysis (P = 0.148). Neither 5-year overall survival (70.5% vs 61.8%, P = 0.217) nor 5-year cancer free survival (64.3% vs 66.6%, P = 0.854) were significantly different between the laparoscopic group and the converted group. CONCLUSION: LRR has equivalent long-term oncologic outcomes when compared to OP. Laparoscopic conversion does not confer a worse prognosis. PMID:27358678

A clinical analysis of brain metastasis in gynecologic cancer: a retrospective multi-institute analysis.

PubMed

Kim, Young Zoon; Kwon, Jae Hyun; Lim, Soyi

2015-01-01

This study analyzes the clinical characteristics of the brain metastasis (BM) of gynecologic cancer based on the type of cancer. In addition, the study examines the factors influencing the survival. Total 61 BM patients of gynecologic cancer were analyzed retrospectively from January 2000 to December 2012 in terms of clinical and radiological characteristics by using medical and radiological records from three university hospitals. There were 19 (31.1%) uterine cancers, 32 (52.5%) ovarian cancers, and 10 (16.4%) cervical cancers. The mean interval to BM was 25.4 months (21.6 months in ovarian cancer, 27.8 months in uterine cancer, and 33.1 months in cervical cancer). The mean survival from BM was 16.7 months (14.1 months in ovarian cancer, 23.3 months in uterine cancer, and 8.8 months in cervical cancer). According to a multivariate analysis of factors influencing survival, type of primary cancer, Karnofsky performance score, status of primary cancer, recursive partitioning analysis class, and treatment modality, particularly combined therapies, were significantly related to the overall survival. These results suggest that, in addition to traditional prognostic factors in BM, multiple treatment methods such as neurosurgery and combined chemoradiotherapy may play an important role in prolonging the survival for BM patients of gynecologic cancer.

Tumour heterogeneity in glioblastoma assessed by MRI texture analysis: a potential marker of survival

PubMed Central

Pérez-Beteta, Julián; Luque, Belén; Arregui, Elena; Calvo, Manuel; Borrás, José M; López, Carlos; Martino, Juan; Velasquez, Carlos; Asenjo, Beatriz; Benavides, Manuel; Herruzo, Ismael; Martínez-González, Alicia; Pérez-Romasanta, Luis; Arana, Estanislao; Pérez-García, Víctor M

2016-01-01

Objective: The main objective of this retrospective work was the study of three-dimensional (3D) heterogeneity measures of post-contrast pre-operative MR images acquired with T1 weighted sequences of patients with glioblastoma (GBM) as predictors of clinical outcome. Methods: 79 patients from 3 hospitals were included in the study. 16 3D textural heterogeneity measures were computed including run-length matrix (RLM) features (regional heterogeneity) and co-occurrence matrix (CM) features (local heterogeneity). The significance of the results was studied using Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards analysis. Correlation between the variables of the study was assessed using the Spearman's correlation coefficient. Results: Kaplan–Meyer survival analysis showed that 4 of the 11 RLM features and 4 of the 5 CM features considered were robust predictors of survival. The median survival differences in the most significant cases were of over 6 months. Conclusion: Heterogeneity measures computed on the post-contrast pre-operative T1 weighted MR images of patients with GBM are predictors of survival. Advances in knowledge: Texture analysis to assess tumour heterogeneity has been widely studied. However, most works develop a two-dimensional analysis, focusing only on one MRI slice to state tumour heterogeneity. The study of fully 3D heterogeneity textural features as predictors of clinical outcome is more robust and is not dependent on the selected slice of the tumour. PMID:27319577

The Impact of Chemoembolization Endpoints on Survival in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

PubMed Central

Jin, Brian; Wang, Dingxin; Lewandowski, Robert J.; Riaz, Ahsun; Ryu, Robert K.; Sato, Kent T.; Larson, Andrew C.; Salem, Riad; Omary, Reed A.

2010-01-01

OBJECTIVE To investigate the relationship between angiographic embolic endpoints of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). MATERIALS AND METHODS This study retrospectively assessed 105 patients with surgically unresectable HCC who underwent TACE. Patients were classified according to a previously established subjective angiographic chemoembolization endpoint (SACE) scale. Only one patient was classified as SACE level 1 and thus excluded from all subsequent analysis. Survival was evaluated with Kaplan-Meier analysis. Multivariate analysis with Cox’s proportional hazard regression model was used to determine independent prognostic risk factors of survival. RESULTS Overall median survival was 21.1 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.9–26.4). Patients embolized to SACE levels 2 and 3 were aggregated and had a significantly higher median survival (25.6 months; 95% CI, 16.2–35.0) than patients embolized to SACE level 4 (17.1 months; 95% CI, 13.3–20.9) (p = 0.035). Multivariate analysis indicated that SACE level 4 (Hazard ratio [HR], 2.49; 95% CI, 1.41–4.42; p = 0.002), European Cooperative Oncology Group performance status > 0 (HR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.15–3.37; p = 0.013), American Joint Committee on Cancer stage 3 or 4 (HR, 2.42; 95% CI, 1.27–4.60; p = 0.007), and Child-Pugh class B (HR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.09–3.46; p = 0.025) were all independent negative prognostic indicators of survival. CONCLUSION Embolization to an intermediate, sub-stasis endpoint (SACE levels 2 and 3) during TACE improves survival compared to embolization to a higher, stasis endpoint (SACE level 4). Interventional oncologists should consider targeting these intermediate, sub-stasis angiographic endpoints during TACE. PMID:21427346

Tamoxifen with ovarian function suppression versus tamoxifen alone as an adjuvant treatment for premenopausal breast cancer: a meta-analysis of published randomized controlled trials

PubMed Central

Yan, Shunchao; Li, Kai; Jiao, Xin; Zou, Huawei

2015-01-01

Background Ovarian function suppression (OFS) significantly downregulates the concentration of plasma estrogens. However, it is unclear whether it offers any survival benefits if combined with adjuvant tamoxifen treatment in premenopausal women. This meta-analysis was designed to assess data from previous studies involving adjuvant tamoxifen treatment plus OFS in premenopausal breast cancer. Methods Electronic literature databases (PubMed, Embase, the Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library) were searched for relevant randomized controlled trials published prior to February 1, 2015. Only randomized controlled trials that compared tamoxifen alone with tamoxifen plus OFS for premenopausal women with breast cancer were selected. The evaluated endpoints were disease-free survival and overall survival. Results Four randomized controlled trials comprising 6,279 patients (OFS combination, n=3,133; tamoxifen alone, n=3,146) were included in the meta-analysis. There was no significant improvement in disease-free survival or overall survival with addition of OFS in either the whole population or the hormone receptor-positive subgroup. The risk of distant recurrence was not reduced with the addition of OFS in the whole population. A subgroup analysis showed that addition of OFS significantly improved overall survival in patients who were administered chemotherapy. Conclusion Based on the available studies, concurrent administration of OFS and adjuvant tamoxifen treatment for premenopausal women with breast cancer has no effect on prolonging disease-free survival and overall survival, excluding patients who were administered chemotherapy. It should not be widely recommended, except perhaps for women who were hormone-receptor positive and who were also administered adjuvant chemotherapy. PMID:26109867

Growth and survival of Salmonella Paratyphi A in roasted marinated chicken during refrigerated storage: Effect of temperature abuse and computer simulation for cold chain management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This research was conducted to evaluate the feasibility of using a one-step dynamic numerical analysis and optimization method to directly construct a tertiary model to describe the growth and survival of Salmonella Paratyphi A (SPA) in a marinated roasted chicken product. Multiple dynamic growth a...

Important risk factors of allograft survival in cadaveric renal transplantation. A study of 426 patients.

PubMed Central

Diethelm, A G; Blackstone, E H; Naftel, D C; Hudson, S L; Barber, W H; Deierhoi, M H; Barger, B O; Curtis, J J; Luke, R G

1988-01-01

Multiple risk factors contribute to the allograft survival of patients who have cadaveric renal transplantation. A retrospective review of 19 such factors in 426 patients identified race, DR match, B + DR match, number of transplants, and preservation time to have a significant influence. The parametric analysis confirmed the effect to be primarily in the early phase, i.e., first 6 months. All patients received cyclosporine with other methods of immunosuppression resulting in an overall 1-year graft survival rate of 66%. The overall 1-year graft survival rate in the white race was 73% and in the black race was 57% (p = 0.002). Allograft survival and DR match showed white recipients with a 1 DR match to have 75% survival at 1 year compared with 57% in the black patient (p = 0.009). If HLA B + DR match was considered, the white recipient allograft survival increased to 76%, 84%, and 88% for 1, 2, and 3 match kidneys by parametric analysis. Patients receiving first grafts had better graft survival (68%) than those undergoing retransplantation (58%) (p = 0.05). Organ preservation less than 12 hours influenced allograft survival with a 78% 1-year survival rate compared with 63% for kidneys with 12-18 hours of preservation. Despite the benefits of B + DR typing, short preservation time, and first transplants to the white recipient, the allograft survival in the black recipient remained uninfluenced by these parameters. PMID:3288138

Enhanced secondary analysis of survival data: reconstructing the data from published Kaplan-Meier survival curves.

PubMed

Guyot, Patricia; Ades, A E; Ouwens, Mario J N M; Welton, Nicky J

2012-02-01

The results of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) on time-to-event outcomes that are usually reported are median time to events and Cox Hazard Ratio. These do not constitute the sufficient statistics required for meta-analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis, and their use in secondary analyses requires strong assumptions that may not have been adequately tested. In order to enhance the quality of secondary data analyses, we propose a method which derives from the published Kaplan Meier survival curves a close approximation to the original individual patient time-to-event data from which they were generated. We develop an algorithm that maps from digitised curves back to KM data by finding numerical solutions to the inverted KM equations, using where available information on number of events and numbers at risk. The reproducibility and accuracy of survival probabilities, median survival times and hazard ratios based on reconstructed KM data was assessed by comparing published statistics (survival probabilities, medians and hazard ratios) with statistics based on repeated reconstructions by multiple observers. The validation exercise established there was no material systematic error and that there was a high degree of reproducibility for all statistics. Accuracy was excellent for survival probabilities and medians, for hazard ratios reasonable accuracy can only be obtained if at least numbers at risk or total number of events are reported. The algorithm is a reliable tool for meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analyses of RCTs reporting time-to-event data. It is recommended that all RCTs should report information on numbers at risk and total number of events alongside KM curves.

Jointly modeling longitudinal proportional data and survival times with an application to the quality of life data in a breast cancer trial.

PubMed

Song, Hui; Peng, Yingwei; Tu, Dongsheng

2017-04-01

Motivated by the joint analysis of longitudinal quality of life data and recurrence free survival times from a cancer clinical trial, we present in this paper two approaches to jointly model the longitudinal proportional measurements, which are confined in a finite interval, and survival data. Both approaches assume a proportional hazards model for the survival times. For the longitudinal component, the first approach applies the classical linear mixed model to logit transformed responses, while the second approach directly models the responses using a simplex distribution. A semiparametric method based on a penalized joint likelihood generated by the Laplace approximation is derived to fit the joint model defined by the second approach. The proposed procedures are evaluated in a simulation study and applied to the analysis of breast cancer data motivated this research.

Beyond utilitarianism: a method for analyzing competing ethical principles in a decision analysis of liver transplantation.

PubMed

Volk, Michael L; Lok, Anna S F; Ubel, Peter A; Vijan, Sandeep

2008-01-01

The utilitarian foundation of decision analysis limits its usefulness for many social policy decisions. In this study, the authors examine a method to incorporate competing ethical principles in a decision analysis of liver transplantation for a patient with acute liver failure (ALF). A Markov model was constructed to compare the benefit of transplantation for a patient with ALF versus the harm caused to other patients on the waiting list and to determine the lowest acceptable 5-y posttransplant survival for the ALF patient. The weighting of the ALF patient and other patients was then adjusted using a multiattribute variable incorporating utilitarianism, urgency, and other principles such as fair chances. In the base-case analysis, the strategy of transplanting the ALF patient resulted in a 0.8% increase in the risk of death and a utility loss of 7.8 quality-adjusted days of life for each of the other patients on the waiting list. These harms cumulatively outweighed the benefit of transplantation for an ALF patient having a posttransplant survival of less than 48% at 5 y. However, the threshold for an acceptable posttransplant survival for the ALF patient ranged from 25% to 56% at 5 y, depending on the ethical principles involved. The results of the decision analysis vary depending on the ethical perspective. This study demonstrates how competing ethical principles can be numerically incorporated in a decision analysis.

Causes of Death in U.S. Special Operations Forces in the Global War on Terrorism

PubMed Central

Holcomb, John B.; McMullin, Neil R.; Pearse, Lisa; Caruso, Jim; Wade, Charles E.; Oetjen-Gerdes, Lynne; Champion, Howard R.; Lawnick, Mimi; Farr, Warner; Rodriguez, Sam; Butler, Frank K.

2007-01-01

Background: Effective combat trauma management strategies depend upon an understanding of the epidemiology of death on the battlefield. Methods: A panel of military medical experts reviewed photographs and autopsy and treatment records for all Special Operations Forces (SOF) who died between October 2001 and November 2004 (n = 82). Fatal wounds were classified as nonsurvivable or potentially survivable. Training and equipment available at the time of injury were taken into consideration. A structured analysis was conducted to identify equipment, training, or research requirements for improved future outcomes. Results: Five (6%) of 82 casualties had died in an aircraft crash, and their bodies were lost at sea; autopsies had been performed on all other 77 soldiers. Nineteen deaths, including the deaths at sea were noncombat; all others were combat related. Deaths were caused by explosions (43%), gunshot wounds (28%), aircraft accidents (23%), and blunt trauma (6%). Seventy of 82 deaths (85%) were classified as nonsurvivable; 12 deaths (15%) were classified as potentially survivable. Of those with potentially survivable injuries, 16 causes of death were identified: 8 (50%) truncal hemorrhage, 3 (19%) compressible hemorrhage, 2 (13%) hemorrhage amenable to tourniquet, and 1 (6%) each from tension pneumothorax, airway obstruction, and sepsis. The population with nonsurvivable injuries was more severely injured than the population with potentially survivable injuries. Structured analysis identified improved methods of truncal hemorrhage control as a principal research requirement. Conclusions: The majority of deaths on the modern battlefield are nonsurvivable. Improved methods of intravenous or intracavitary, noncompressible hemostasis combined with rapid evacuation to surgery may increase survival. PMID:17522526

Methods for analysis of the occurrence of abscess in patients with pancreatitis.

PubMed

Roca-Antonio, J; Escudero, L E; Gener, J; Oller, B; Rodríguez, N; Muñoz, A

1997-01-01

Standard survival analysis methods are useful for data involving censored cases when cures do not generally occur. If the object is to study, for instance, the development of a complication in the progress of an infectious disease, some people may be cured before complications develop. In this article, we provide methods for the analysis of data when cures do occur. An example is a study of prognostic factors for pancreatic abscess in patients with pancreatitis, some of whom leave the risk set because the pancreatitis clears. We present methods for estimating the survival curves and comparing hazard function for two objectives: (1) the occurrence of an abscess, irrespective of whether the patients are cured or not, and (2) the occurrence of an abscess for patients who, at that stage, have not been cured. We illustrate the applications of the methods using a sample of 50 patients with severe pancreatitis. To study the occurrence of an abscess, regardless of whether the patients are cured or not, we show that the appropriate strategy is to assign to the cured patients an infinite time to the appearance of an abscess. If the cured were considered censored at the moment the pancreatitis cleared, this would result in an overestimation of the hazard of presenting an abscess. On the other hand, if the objective is to compare the occurrence of abscess according to an exposure for patients who have not been cured, one needs to censor the cured patients at the time they are cured. For the analysis of survival data in the context of infectious diseases when cure is possible, it is important to use a censoring strategy that is pertinent to the specific aims of the study. Considering cures as censored at the time of cure is not always appropriate.

Statistical inference methods for two crossing survival curves: a comparison of methods.

PubMed

Li, Huimin; Han, Dong; Hou, Yawen; Chen, Huilin; Chen, Zheng

2015-01-01

A common problem that is encountered in medical applications is the overall homogeneity of survival distributions when two survival curves cross each other. A survey demonstrated that under this condition, which was an obvious violation of the assumption of proportional hazard rates, the log-rank test was still used in 70% of studies. Several statistical methods have been proposed to solve this problem. However, in many applications, it is difficult to specify the types of survival differences and choose an appropriate method prior to analysis. Thus, we conducted an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the power and type I error rate of these procedures under various patterns of crossing survival curves with different censoring rates and distribution parameters. Our objective was to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of tests in different situations and for various censoring rates and to recommend an appropriate test that will not fail for a wide range of applications. Simulation studies demonstrated that adaptive Neyman's smooth tests and the two-stage procedure offer higher power and greater stability than other methods when the survival distributions cross at early, middle or late times. Even for proportional hazards, both methods maintain acceptable power compared with the log-rank test. In terms of the type I error rate, Renyi and Cramér-von Mises tests are relatively conservative, whereas the statistics of the Lin-Xu test exhibit apparent inflation as the censoring rate increases. Other tests produce results close to the nominal 0.05 level. In conclusion, adaptive Neyman's smooth tests and the two-stage procedure are found to be the most stable and feasible approaches for a variety of situations and censoring rates. Therefore, they are applicable to a wider spectrum of alternatives compared with other tests.

Statistical Inference Methods for Two Crossing Survival Curves: A Comparison of Methods

PubMed Central

Li, Huimin; Han, Dong; Hou, Yawen; Chen, Huilin; Chen, Zheng

2015-01-01

A common problem that is encountered in medical applications is the overall homogeneity of survival distributions when two survival curves cross each other. A survey demonstrated that under this condition, which was an obvious violation of the assumption of proportional hazard rates, the log-rank test was still used in 70% of studies. Several statistical methods have been proposed to solve this problem. However, in many applications, it is difficult to specify the types of survival differences and choose an appropriate method prior to analysis. Thus, we conducted an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the power and type I error rate of these procedures under various patterns of crossing survival curves with different censoring rates and distribution parameters. Our objective was to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of tests in different situations and for various censoring rates and to recommend an appropriate test that will not fail for a wide range of applications. Simulation studies demonstrated that adaptive Neyman’s smooth tests and the two-stage procedure offer higher power and greater stability than other methods when the survival distributions cross at early, middle or late times. Even for proportional hazards, both methods maintain acceptable power compared with the log-rank test. In terms of the type I error rate, Renyi and Cramér—von Mises tests are relatively conservative, whereas the statistics of the Lin-Xu test exhibit apparent inflation as the censoring rate increases. Other tests produce results close to the nominal 0.05 level. In conclusion, adaptive Neyman’s smooth tests and the two-stage procedure are found to be the most stable and feasible approaches for a variety of situations and censoring rates. Therefore, they are applicable to a wider spectrum of alternatives compared with other tests. PMID:25615624

Reliability analysis of redundant systems. [a method to compute transition probabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeh, H. Y.

1974-01-01

A method is proposed to compute the transition probability (the probability of partial or total failure) of parallel redundant system. The effect of geometry of the system, the direction of load, and the degree of redundancy on the probability of complete survival of parachute-like system are also studied. The results show that the probability of complete survival of three-member parachute-like system is very sensitive to the variation of horizontal angle of the load. However, it becomes very insignificant as the degree of redundancy increases.

Medical cost analysis: application to colorectal cancer data from the SEER Medicare database.

PubMed

Bang, Heejung

2005-10-01

Incompleteness is a key feature of most survival data. Numerous well established statistical methodologies and algorithms exist for analyzing life or failure time data. However, induced censorship invalidates the use of those standard analytic tools for some survival-type data such as medical costs. In this paper, some valid methods currently available for analyzing censored medical cost data are reviewed. Some cautionary findings under different assumptions are envisioned through application to medical costs from colorectal cancer patients. Cost analysis should be suitably planned and carefully interpreted under various meaningful scenarios even with judiciously selected statistical methods. This approach would be greatly helpful to policy makers who seek to prioritize health care expenditures and to assess the elements of resource use.

A genetic polymorphism in TOX3 is associated with survival of gastric cancer in a Chinese population.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaojing; Zhu, Haixia; Wu, Xiaomin; Wang, Meilin; Gu, Dongying; Gong, Weida; Xu, Zhi; Tan, Yongfei; Gong, Yongling; Zhou, Jianwei; Tang, Cuiju; Tong, Na; Chen, Jinfei; Zhang, Zhengdong

2013-01-01

Recently, genetic polymorphism (rs3803662C>T) in TOX3 was reported to induce the risk of breast cancer. In this study, we hypothesized that rs3803662 could influence gastric cancer survival outcomes. With multiplex SNaPshot method, we genotyped TOX3 rs3803662 in 880 gastric patients with surgical resection. The association between genotype and survival outcomes was performed by the Kaplan-Meier method, Cox regression analysis models and the log-rank test. There was no association in the analyses of rs3803662 and survival of gastric cancer. However, the stratified analysis by histology showed that rs3803662 CT/TT genotype was associated with a significantly better survival for diffuse-type gastric cancer (log-rank p = 0.030, hazard ratio [HR]  = 0.67, 95% confidence interval [CI]  = 0.46-0.96), than the CC genotype. In addition, this favorable effect was especially obvious among gastric cancer patients with tumor size >5 cm, T3 and T4 depth of invasion, lymph node metastasis, no drinking, no distant metastasis, no chemotherapy and gastric cardia cancer. TOX3 rs3803662 might play an important role in the prognostic outcome and treatment of gastric cancer, especially perhaps further help in explaining the reduced risk of death associated with diffuse-type gastric cancer.

Prognostic value of platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio in oncologic outcomes of esophageal cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiangwei; Wang, Yang; Zhao, Linping; Sang, Shaowei; Zhang, Lin

2018-04-01

The platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) is a useful prognostic factor in several cancers. However, the prognostic role of PLR in esophageal cancer remains controversial. The aim of this study is to evaluate the association between PLR and the oncologic outcome of esophageal cancer patients through a meta-analysis. Relevant articles were researched from Embase, PubMed, and Web of Science databases. The meta-analysis was performed using hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) as effect measures. Finally, 19 articles with 6134 patients were included in our study. The summary results indicated that the elevated PLR was negatively related to overall survival (HR= 1.263; 95% CI 1.094, 1.458). The subgroup analysis revealed that increased PLR was associated with poor overall survival in esophageal cancer patients for Asians (HR=1.252; 95% CI 1.141, 1.373) but not for Caucasians (HR=1.463; 95% CI 0.611, 3.502). When the patients were segregated by pathological type, sample size, and HR estimate method, high PLR was also significantly correlated with poor overall survival. In contrast, elevated PLR was not statistically associated with disease-free survival or cancer-specific survival. High PLR is associated with poor overall survival in patients with esophageal cancer. PLR may be a significant predictive biomarker in patients with esophageal cancer. Further large-cohort studies are needed to confirm these findings.

D.B.H. and Survival Analysis: A New Methodology for Assessing Forest Inventory Mortality

Treesearch

Christopher W. Woodall; Patricia L. Grambsch; William Thomas

2005-01-01

Tree mortality has typically been assessed in Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) studies through summaries of mortality by location, species, and causal agents. Although these methods have historically been used for most of FIA's tree mortality analyses, they are inadequate for robust assessment of mortality trends and dynamics. To offer a new method of analyzing...

“Outcome of Older Patients with Acute Myeloid Leukemia: An analysis of SEER Data over Three Decades”

PubMed Central

Thein, Mya S.; Ershler, William B.; Jemal, Ahmedin; Yates, Jerome W.; Baer, Maria R.

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is the common form of acute leukemia in adults, accounting for over 80% of all acute leukemia in those over the age of 18 years. Overall 5-year survival remains poor in older AML patients; it is less than 5% in patient over 65 years. We examined whether survival has improved for subsets of geriatric AML patients over three successive decades. METHODS Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data were used to determine trends in relative survival by age among 19,000 AML patients over three successive decades (1977–1986, 1987–1996, and 1997–2006). Relative survival rates (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated as measures of survival. RESULTS Overall, relative survival rates increased for each successive decade (1977–1986, 1987–1996, 1997–2006) in patients aged 65–74 years, with improvement in 12-month survival from 20% to 25% to 30%. Findings were similar for 24-month, 36-month, 48-month and 60-month survival. However, survival rates did not improve in patients 75 years and older. The oldest-old (85 years and older) had the lowest survival rates, with no apparent improvement. CONCLUSION Analysis of a large data set demonstrated that, while overall survival remains unsatisfactory among older patients, it has in fact improves in the younger old (65–74 years). Survival of older old AML patients has not been favorably impacted by available AML therapies or supportive care, and intervention in this age group is best undertaken on a clinical trial. PMID:23633441

National Cancer Database Analysis of Proton Versus Photon Radiation Therapy in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Higgins, Kristin A., E-mail: kristin.higgins@emory.edu; Winship Cancer Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia; O'Connell, Kelli

Purpose: To analyze outcomes and predictors associated with proton radiation therapy for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in the National Cancer Database. Methods and Materials: The National Cancer Database was queried to capture patients with stage I-IV NSCLC treated with thoracic radiation from 2004 to 2012. A logistic regression model was used to determine the predictors for utilization of proton radiation therapy. The univariate and multivariable association with overall survival were assessed by Cox proportional hazards models along with log–rank tests. A propensity score matching method was implemented to balance baseline covariates and eliminate selection bias. Results: A total of 243,822more » patients (photon radiation therapy: 243,474; proton radiation therapy: 348) were included in the analysis. Patients in a ZIP code with a median income of <$46,000 per year were less likely to receive proton treatment, with the income cohort of $30,000 to $35,999 least likely to receive proton therapy (odds ratio 0.63 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.44-0.90]; P=.011). On multivariate analysis of all patients, non-proton therapy was associated with significantly worse survival compared with proton therapy (hazard ratio 1.21 [95% CI 1.06-1.39]; P<.01). On propensity matched analysis, proton radiation therapy (n=309) was associated with better 5-year overall survival compared with non-proton radiation therapy (n=1549), 22% versus 16% (P=.025). For stage II and III patients, non-proton radiation therapy was associated with worse survival compared with proton radiation therapy (hazard ratio 1.35 [95% CI 1.10-1.64], P<.01). Conclusions: Thoracic radiation with protons is associated with better survival in this retrospective analysis; further validation in the randomized setting is needed to account for any imbalances in patient characteristics, including positron emission tomography–computed tomography staging.« less

Multivariate meta-analysis using individual participant data.

PubMed

Riley, R D; Price, M J; Jackson, D; Wardle, M; Gueyffier, F; Wang, J; Staessen, J A; White, I R

2015-06-01

When combining results across related studies, a multivariate meta-analysis allows the joint synthesis of correlated effect estimates from multiple outcomes. Joint synthesis can improve efficiency over separate univariate syntheses, may reduce selective outcome reporting biases, and enables joint inferences across the outcomes. A common issue is that within-study correlations needed to fit the multivariate model are unknown from published reports. However, provision of individual participant data (IPD) allows them to be calculated directly. Here, we illustrate how to use IPD to estimate within-study correlations, using a joint linear regression for multiple continuous outcomes and bootstrapping methods for binary, survival and mixed outcomes. In a meta-analysis of 10 hypertension trials, we then show how these methods enable multivariate meta-analysis to address novel clinical questions about continuous, survival and binary outcomes; treatment-covariate interactions; adjusted risk/prognostic factor effects; longitudinal data; prognostic and multiparameter models; and multiple treatment comparisons. Both frequentist and Bayesian approaches are applied, with example software code provided to derive within-study correlations and to fit the models. © 2014 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The radiation biology of the thyroid.

PubMed

Malone, J F

1975-10-01

The structure and function of the thyroid gland are described. A detailed analysis of population kinetics in the gland suggests a method of measuring cell survival after irradiation that has many features in common with methods used in other mammalian cell systems. This method is used to obtain survival curves for thyroid cells afer irradiation. The effects on survival of splitting the radiation dose into two or multiple fractions, radiation type, and radioprotective agents are also examined. In the light of these data the tolerance of thyroid tissue to radiation exposure under various conditions is discussed. The dosimetry and biological effects of 125I and 131I are described in detail, and compared with X-rays. Radioiodine treatment of thyrotoxicosis is presented in relation to the known biological effects of the isotopes on the gland. Carcinogenic action of ionizing radiations in the thyroid are reviewed with particular reference to the clinical consequences of observations in this field.

Lung Shunt Fraction prior to Yttrium-90 Radioembolization Predicts Survival in Patients with Neuroendocrine Liver Metastases: Single-Center Prospective Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ludwig, Johannes M.; Ambinder, Emily McIntosh; Ghodadra, Anish

ObjectiveTo investigate survival outcomes following radioembolization with Yttrium-90 (Y90) for neuroendocrine tumor liver metastases (NETLMs). This study was designed to assess the efficacy of Y90 radioembolization and to evaluate lung shunt fraction (LSF) as a predictor for survival.MethodsA single-center, prospective study of 44 consecutive patients (median age: 58.5 years, 29.5 % male) diagnosed with pancreatic (52.3 %) or carcinoid (47.7 %) NETLMs from 2006 to 2012 who underwent Y90 radioembolization was performed. Patients’ baseline characteristics, including LSF and median overall survival (OS) from first Y90 radioembolization, were recorded and compared between patients with high (≥10 %) and low (<10 %) LSF. Baseline comparisons were performed usingmore » Fisher’s exact tests for categorical and Mann–Whitney U test for continuous variables. Survival was calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method. Univariate (Wilcoxon rank-sum test) and multivariate analyses (Cox Proportional Hazard Model) for risk factor analysis were performed.ResultsThere was no statistically significant difference in age, gender, race, tumor properties, or previous treatments between patients with high (n = 15) and low (n = 29) LSF. The median OS was 27.4 months (95 %CI 12.73–55.23), with 4.77 months (95 %CI 2.87–26.73) for high and 42.77 months (95 %CI 18.47–59.73) for low LSF (p = 0.003). Multivariate analysis identified high LSF (p = 0.001), total serum bilirubin >1.2 mg (p = 0.016), and lack of pretreatment with octreotide (p = 0.01) as independent prognostic factors for poorer survival. Tumor type and total radiation dose did not predict survival.ConclusionsLSF ≥10 %, elevated bilirubin levels, and lack of pretreatment with octreotide were found to be independent prognostic factors for poorer survival in patients with NETLMs.« less

Application of random survival forests in understanding the determinants of under-five child mortality in Uganda in the presence of covariates that satisfy the proportional and non-proportional hazards assumption.

PubMed

Nasejje, Justine B; Mwambi, Henry

2017-09-07

Uganda just like any other Sub-Saharan African country, has a high under-five child mortality rate. To inform policy on intervention strategies, sound statistical methods are required to critically identify factors strongly associated with under-five child mortality rates. The Cox proportional hazards model has been a common choice in analysing data to understand factors strongly associated with high child mortality rates taking age as the time-to-event variable. However, due to its restrictive proportional hazards (PH) assumption, some covariates of interest which do not satisfy the assumption are often excluded in the analysis to avoid mis-specifying the model. Otherwise using covariates that clearly violate the assumption would mean invalid results. Survival trees and random survival forests are increasingly becoming popular in analysing survival data particularly in the case of large survey data and could be attractive alternatives to models with the restrictive PH assumption. In this article, we adopt random survival forests which have never been used in understanding factors affecting under-five child mortality rates in Uganda using Demographic and Health Survey data. Thus the first part of the analysis is based on the use of the classical Cox PH model and the second part of the analysis is based on the use of random survival forests in the presence of covariates that do not necessarily satisfy the PH assumption. Random survival forests and the Cox proportional hazards model agree that the sex of the household head, sex of the child, number of births in the past 1 year are strongly associated to under-five child mortality in Uganda given all the three covariates satisfy the PH assumption. Random survival forests further demonstrated that covariates that were originally excluded from the earlier analysis due to violation of the PH assumption were important in explaining under-five child mortality rates. These covariates include the number of children under the age of five in a household, number of births in the past 5 years, wealth index, total number of children ever born and the child's birth order. The results further indicated that the predictive performance for random survival forests built using covariates including those that violate the PH assumption was higher than that for random survival forests built using only covariates that satisfy the PH assumption. Random survival forests are appealing methods in analysing public health data to understand factors strongly associated with under-five child mortality rates especially in the presence of covariates that violate the proportional hazards assumption.

Glioblastoma: Vascular Habitats Detected at Preoperative Dynamic Susceptibility-weighted Contrast-enhanced Perfusion MR Imaging Predict Survival.

PubMed

Juan-Albarracín, Javier; Fuster-Garcia, Elies; Pérez-Girbés, Alexandre; Aparici-Robles, Fernando; Alberich-Bayarri, Ángel; Revert-Ventura, Antonio; Martí-Bonmatí, Luis; García-Gómez, Juan M

2018-06-01

Purpose To determine if preoperative vascular heterogeneity of glioblastoma is predictive of overall survival of patients undergoing standard-of-care treatment by using an unsupervised multiparametric perfusion-based habitat-discovery algorithm. Materials and Methods Preoperative magnetic resonance (MR) imaging including dynamic susceptibility-weighted contrast material-enhanced perfusion studies in 50 consecutive patients with glioblastoma were retrieved. Perfusion parameters of glioblastoma were analyzed and used to automatically draw four reproducible habitats that describe the tumor vascular heterogeneity: high-angiogenic and low-angiogenic regions of the enhancing tumor, potentially tumor-infiltrated peripheral edema, and vasogenic edema. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard analyses were conducted to assess the prognostic potential of the hemodynamic tissue signature to predict patient survival. Results Cox regression analysis yielded a significant correlation between patients' survival and maximum relative cerebral blood volume (rCBV max ) and maximum relative cerebral blood flow (rCBF max ) in high-angiogenic and low-angiogenic habitats (P < .01, false discovery rate-corrected P < .05). Moreover, rCBF max in the potentially tumor-infiltrated peripheral edema habitat was also significantly correlated (P < .05, false discovery rate-corrected P < .05). Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated significant differences between the observed survival of populations divided according to the median of the rCBV max or rCBF max at the high-angiogenic and low-angiogenic habitats (log-rank test P < .05, false discovery rate-corrected P < .05), with an average survival increase of 230 days. Conclusion Preoperative perfusion heterogeneity contains relevant information about overall survival in patients who undergo standard-of-care treatment. The hemodynamic tissue signature method automatically describes this heterogeneity, providing a set of vascular habitats with high prognostic capabilities. © RSNA, 2018.

Prognostic Value of SUVmax Measured by Pretreatment Fluorine-18 Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography in Patients with Ewing Sarcoma

PubMed Central

Hwang, Jae Pil; Lim, Ilhan; Kong, Chang-Bae; Jeon, Dae Geun; Byun, Byung Hyun; Kim, Byung Il; Choi, Chang Woon; Lim, Sang Moo

2016-01-01

Aim The aim of this retrospective study was to determine whether glucose metabolism assessed by using Fluorine-18 (F-18) fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) provides prognostic information independent of established prognostic factors in patients with Ewing sarcoma. Methods We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 34 patients (men, 19; women, 15; mean age, 14.5 ± 9.7 years) with pathologically proven Ewing sarcoma. They had undergone F-18 FDG PET/CT as part of a pretreatment workup between September 2006 and April 2012. In this analysis, patients were classified by age, sex, initial location, size, and maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax). The relationship between FDG uptake and survival was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test and Cox’s proportional hazards regression model. Results The median survival time for all 34 subjects was 999 days and the median SUV by using PET/CT was 5.8 (range, 2–18.1). Patients with a SUVmax ≤ 5.8 survived significantly longer than those with a SUVmax > 5.8 (median survival time, 1265 vs. 656 days; p = 0.002). Survival was also found to be significantly related to age (p = 0.024), size (p = 0.03), and initial tumor location (p = 0.036). Multivariate analysis revealed that a higher SUVmax (p = 0.003; confidence interval [CI], 3.63–508.26; hazard ratio [HR], 42.98), older age (p = 0.023; CI, 1.34–54.80; HR, 8.59), and higher stage (p = 0.03; CI, 1.21–43.95; HR, 7.3) were associated with worse overall survival. Conclusions SUVmax measured by pretreatment F-18-FDG PET/CT can predict overall survival in patients with Ewing sarcoma. PMID:27100297

Estimating survival of precocial chicks during the prefledging period using a catch-curve analysis and count-based age-class data

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, C.P.; Millspaugh, J.J.; Ryan, M.R.; Kruse, C.D.; Pavelka, G.

2009-01-01

Estimating reproductive success for birds with precocial young can be difficult because chicks leave nests soon after hatching and individuals or broods can be difficult to track. Researchers often turn to estimating survival during the prefledging period and, though effective, mark-recapture based approaches are not always feasible due to cost, time, and animal welfare concerns. Using a threatened population of Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) that breeds along the Missouri River, we present an approach for estimating chick survival during the prefledging period using long-term (1993-2005), count-based, age-class data. We used a modified catch-curve analysis, and data collected during three 5-day sampling periods near the middle of the breeding season. The approach has several ecological and statistical assumptions and our analyses were designed to minimize the probability of violating those assumptions. For example, limiting the sampling periods to only 5 days gave reasonable assurance that population size was stable during the sampling period. Annual daily survival estimates ranged from 0.825 (SD = 0.03) to 0.931 (0.02) depending on year and sampling period, with these estimates assuming constant survival during the prefledging period and no change in the age structure of the population. The average probability of survival to fledging ranged from 0.126 to 0.188. Our results are similar to other published estimates for this species in similar habitats. This method of estimating chick survival may be useful for a variety of precocial bird species when mark-recapture methods are not feasible and only count-based age class data are available. ?? 2009 Association of Field Ornithologists.

Outcome and prognostic factors in metastatic urothelial carcinoma patients receiving second-line chemotherapy: an analysis of real-world clinical practice data in Japan.

PubMed

Matsumoto, Ryuji; Abe, Takashige; Ishizaki, Junji; Kikuchi, Hiroshi; Harabayashi, Toru; Minami, Keita; Sazawa, Ataru; Mochizuki, Tango; Akino, Tomoshige; Murakumo, Masashi; Osawa, Takahiro; Maruyama, Satoru; Murai, Sachiyo; Shinohara, Nobuo

2018-06-25

The objective of the present study was to investigate the survival outcome and prognostic factors of metastatic urothelial carcinoma patients treated with second-line systemic chemotherapy in real-world clinical practice. Overall, 114 patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma undergoing second-line systemic chemotherapy were included in this retrospective analysis. The dominant second-line chemotherapy was a paclitaxel-based combination regimen (60%, 68/114). We assessed the progression-free survival and overall survival times using the Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox proportional hazards model was applied to identify the factors affecting overall survival. The median progression-free survival and overall survival times were 4 and 9 months, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status score greater than 0 at presentation, C-reactive protein level ≧1 mg/dl and poor response to prior chemotherapy were adverse prognostic indicators. Patients with 0, 1, 2 and 3 of those risk factors had a median overall survival of 17, 12, 7 and 3 months, respectively. The Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status at presentation, C-reactive protein level and response to prior chemotherapy were prognostic factors for metastatic urothelial carcinoma patients undergoing second-line chemotherapy. In the future, this information might help guide the choice of salvage treatment, such as second-line chemotherapy or immune checkpoint inhibitors, after the failure of first-line chemotherapy.

Surgery for left ventricular aneurysm: early and late survival after simple linear repair and endoventricular patch plasty.

PubMed

Lundblad, Runar; Abdelnoor, Michel; Svennevig, Jan Ludvig

2004-09-01

Simple linear resection and endoventricular patch plasty are alternative techniques to repair postinfarction left ventricular aneurysm. The aim of the study was to compare these 2 methods with regard to early mortality and long-term survival. We retrospectively reviewed 159 patients undergoing operations between 1989 and 2003. The epidemiologic design was of an exposed (simple linear repair, n = 74) versus nonexposed (endoventricular patch plasty, n = 85) cohort with 2 endpoints: early mortality and long-term survival. The crude effect of aneurysm repair technique versus endpoint was estimated by odds ratio, rate ratio, or relative risk and their 95% confidence intervals. Stratification analysis by using the Mantel-Haenszel method was done to quantify confounders and pinpoint effect modifiers. Adjustment for multiconfounders was performed by using logistic regression and Cox regression analysis. Survival curves were analyzed with the Breslow test and the log-rank test. Early mortality was 8.2% for all patients, 13.5% after linear repair and 3.5% after endoventricular patch plasty. When adjusted for multiconfounders, the risk of early mortality was significantly higher after simple linear repair than after endoventricular patch plasty (odds ratio, 4.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-17.8). Mean follow-up was 5.8 +/- 3.8 years (range, 0-14.0 years). Overall 5-year cumulative survival was 78%, 70.1% after linear repair and 91.4% after endoventricular patch plasty. The risk of total mortality was significantly higher after linear repair than after endoventricular patch plasty when controlled for multiconfounders (relative risk, 4.5; 95% confidence interval, 2.0-9.7). Linear repair dominated early in the series and patch plasty dominated later, giving a possible learning-curve bias in favor of patch plasty that could not be adjusted for in the regression analysis. Postinfarction left ventricular aneurysm can be repaired with satisfactory early and late results. Surgical risk was lower and long-term survival was higher after endoventricular patch plasty than simple linear repair. Differences in outcome should be interpreted with care because of the retrospective study design and the chronology of the 2 repair methods.

Conditional screening for ultra-high dimensional covariates with survival outcomes

PubMed Central

Hong, Hyokyoung G.; Li, Yi

2017-01-01

Identifying important biomarkers that are predictive for cancer patients’ prognosis is key in gaining better insights into the biological influences on the disease and has become a critical component of precision medicine. The emergence of large-scale biomedical survival studies, which typically involve excessive number of biomarkers, has brought high demand in designing efficient screening tools for selecting predictive biomarkers. The vast amount of biomarkers defies any existing variable selection methods via regularization. The recently developed variable screening methods, though powerful in many practical setting, fail to incorporate prior information on the importance of each biomarker and are less powerful in detecting marginally weak while jointly important signals. We propose a new conditional screening method for survival outcome data by computing the marginal contribution of each biomarker given priorily known biological information. This is based on the premise that some biomarkers are known to be associated with disease outcomes a priori. Our method possesses sure screening properties and a vanishing false selection rate. The utility of the proposal is further confirmed with extensive simulation studies and analysis of a diffuse large B-cell lymphoma dataset. We are pleased to dedicate this work to Jack Kalbfleisch, who has made instrumental contributions to the development of modern methods of analyzing survival data. PMID:27933468

Does surgery or radiation provide the best overall survival in Ewing's sarcoma? A review of the National Cancer Data Base.

PubMed

Miller, Benjamin J; Gao, Yubo; Duchman, Kyle R

2017-09-01

There is continuing debate regarding the ideal modality for local control of the primary tumor for patients with Ewing's sarcoma. The primary aim of this study is to investigate the impact of the method of local control on overall survival in patients with Ewing's sarcoma. The National Cancer Data Base was used to identify patients <40 years of age with high-grade Ewing's sarcoma of bone. A Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed at 2, 5, and 10 years. Factors with a level of significance of P < 0.1 at the 5-year time point were included in a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Diminished 5-year survival was noted for patients with metastatic disease, local control with radiation alone, age ≥18 years, tumor size >8 cm, and male sex while controlling for tumor site. Surgery alone was consistently the method of local control that resulted in the highest overall survival. Surgery alone resulted in the best overall survival for patients with Ewing's sarcoma of bone. The results of this investigation provide support to the approach of surgical resection with negative margins when possible. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Heterogeneous impact of alcohol consumption according to treatment method on survival in head and neck cancer: A prospective study.

PubMed

Sawabe, Michi; Ito, Hidemi; Oze, Isao; Hosono, Satoyo; Kawakita, Daisuke; Tanaka, Hideo; Hasegawa, Yasuhisa; Murakami, Shingo; Matsuo, Keitaro

2017-01-01

Alcohol consumption is an established risk factor, and also a potential prognostic factor, for squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (HNSCC). However, little is known about whether the prognostic impact of alcohol consumption differs by treatment method. We evaluated the association between alcohol drinking and survival by treatment method to the primary site in 427 patients with HNSCC treated between 2005 and 2013 at Aichi Cancer Center Central Hospital (Nagoya, Japan). The impact of alcohol on prognosis was measured by multivariable Cox regression analysis adjusted for established prognostic factors. Among all HNSCC patients, the overall survival rate was significantly poorer with increased levels of alcohol consumption in multivariable analysis (trend P = 0.038). Stratification by treatment method and primary site revealed that the impact of drinking was heterogeneous. Among laryngopharyngeal cancer (laryngeal, oropharyngeal, and hypopharyngeal cancer) patients receiving radiotherapy (n = 141), a significant dose-response relationship was observed (trend P = 0.034). In contrast, among laryngopharyngeal cancer patients treated with surgery (n = 80), no obvious impact of alcohol was observed. This heterogeneity in the impact of alcohol between surgery and radiotherapy was significant (for interaction, P = 0.048). Furthermore, among patients with oral cavity cancer treated by surgery, a significant impact of drinking on survival was seen with tongue cancer, but not with non-tongue oral cancer. We observed a significant inverse association between alcohol drinking and prognosis among HNSCC patients, and its impact was heterogeneous by treatment method and primary site. © 2016 The Authors. Cancer Science published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japanese Cancer Association.

Effects of receiving-water quality and wastewater treatment on injury, survival, and regrowth of fecal-indicator bacteria and implications for assessment of recreational water quality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Francy, D.S.; Hart, T.L.; Virosteck, C.M.

1996-01-01

Bacterial injury, survival, and regrowth were investigated by use of replicate flow-through incubation chambers placed in the Cuyahoga River or Lake Erie in the greater Cleveland metropolitan area during seven 4-day field studies. The chambers contained wastewater or combined-sewer-overflow (CSO) effluents treated three ways-unchlorinated, chlorinated, and dechlorinated. At timestep intervals, the chamber contents were analyzed for concentrations of injured and healthy fecal coliforms by use of standard selective and enhanced-recovery membrane-filtration methods. Mean percent injuries and survivals were calculated from the fecal-coliform concentration data for each field study. The results of analysis of variance (ANOVA) indicated that treatment affected mean percent injury and survival, whereas site did not. In the warm-weather Lake Erie field study, but not in the warm-weather Cuyahoga River studies, the results of ANOVA indicated that dechlorination enhanced the repair of injuries and regrowth of chlorine-injured fecal coliforms on culture media over chlorination alone. The results of ANOVA on the percent injury from CSO effluent field studies indicated that dechlorination reduced the ability of organisms to recover and regrow on culture media over chlorination alone. However, because of atypical patterns of concentration increases and decreases in some CSO effluent samples, more work needs to be done before the effect of dechlorination and chlorination on reducing fecal-coliform concentrations in CSO effluents can be confirmed. The results of ANOVA on percent survivals found statistically significant differences among the three treatment methods for all but one study. Dechlorination was found to be less effective than chlorination alone in reducing the survival of fecal coliforms in wastewater effluent, but not in CSO effluent. If the concentration of fecal coliforms determined by use of the enhanced-recovery method can be predicted accurately from the concentration found by use of the standard method, then increased monitoring and expense to detect chlorine-injured organisms would be unnecessary. The results of linear regression analysis, however, indicated that the relation between enhanced-recovery and standard-method concentrations was best represented when the data were grouped by treatment. The model generated from linear regression of the unchlorinated data set provided an accurate estimate of enhanced-recovery concentrations from standard-method concentrations, whereas the models generated from the chlorinated and dechlorinated data sets did not. In addition, evaluation of fecal-coliform concentrations found in field studies in terms of Ohio recreational water-quality standards showed that concentrations obtained by standard and enhanced-recovery methods were not comparable. Sample treatment and analysis methods were found to affect the percentage of samples meeting and exceeding Ohio's bathing-water, primary-contact, and secondary-contact standards. Therefore, determining the health risk of swimming in receiving waters was often difficult without information on enhanced-recovery method concentrations and was especially difficult in waters receiving high proportions of chlorinated or dechlorinated effluents.

Application of the BAR score as a predictor of short- and long-term survival in liver transplantation patients.

PubMed

de Campos Junior, Ivan Dias; Stucchi, Raquel Silveira Bello; Udo, Elisabete Yoko; Boin, Ilka de Fátima Santana Ferreira

2015-01-01

The balance of risk (BAR) is a prediction system after liver transplantation. To assess the BAR system, a retrospective observational study was performed in 402 patients who had transplant surgery between 1997 and 2012. The BAR score was computed for each patient. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to calculate sensitivity, specificity, and model calibration. The cutoff value with the best Youden index was selected. Statistical analysis employed the Kaplan-Meier method (log-rank test) for survival, the Mann-Whitney test for group comparison, and multiple logistic regression analysis. 3-month survival was 46% for BAR ≥ 11 and 77% for BAR <11 (p = 0.001); 12-month survival was 44% for BAR ≥ 11 and 69% for BAR <11 (p = 0.001). Factors of survival <3 months were BAR ≥ 11 [odds ratio (OR) 3.08; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.75-5.42; p = 0.001] and intrasurgical use of packed red blood cells (RBC) above 6 units (OR 4.49; 95% CI 2.73-7.39; p = 0.001). For survival <12 months, factors were BAR ≥ 11 (OR 2.94; 95% CI 1.67-5.16; p = 0.001) and RBC >6 units (OR 2.99; 95% CI 1.92-4.64; p = 0.001). Our study contributes to the incorporation of the BAR system into Brazilian transplantation centers.

On comparison of net survival curves.

PubMed

Pavlič, Klemen; Perme, Maja Pohar

2017-05-02

Relative survival analysis is a subfield of survival analysis where competing risks data are observed, but the causes of death are unknown. A first step in the analysis of such data is usually the estimation of a net survival curve, possibly followed by regression modelling. Recently, a log-rank type test for comparison of net survival curves has been introduced and the goal of this paper is to explore its properties and put this methodological advance into the context of the field. We build on the association between the log-rank test and the univariate or stratified Cox model and show the analogy in the relative survival setting. We study the properties of the methods using both the theoretical arguments as well as simulations. We provide an R function to enable practical usage of the log-rank type test. Both the log-rank type test and its model alternatives perform satisfactory under the null, even if the correlation between their p-values is rather low, implying that both approaches cannot be used simultaneously. The stratified version has a higher power in case of non-homogeneous hazards, but also carries a different interpretation. The log-rank type test and its stratified version can be interpreted in the same way as the results of an analogous semi-parametric additive regression model despite the fact that no direct theoretical link can be established between the test statistics.

Impact of age on the survival of patients with liver cancer: an analysis of 27,255 patients in the SEER database.

PubMed

Zhang, Wenjie; Sun, Beicheng

2015-01-20

The risk of liver cancer (LC) is regarded as age dependent. However, the influence of age on its prognosis is controversial. The aim of our study was to compare the long-term survival of younger versus older patients with LC. In this retrospective study, we searched Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-RESULTS (SEER) population-based data and identified 27,255 patients diagnosed with LC between 1988 and 2003. These patients were categorized into younger (45 years and under) and older age (over 45 years of age) groups. Five-year cancer specific survival data was obtained. Kaplan-Meier methods and multivariable Cox regression models were used to analyze long-term survival outcomes and risk factors. There were significant differences between groups with regards to pathologic grading, histologic type, stage, and tumor size (p < 0.001). The 5-year liver cancer specific survival (LCSS) rates in the younger and older age groups were 14.5% and 8.4%, respectively (p < 0.001 by univariate and multivariate analysis). A stratified analysis of age on cancer survival showed only localized and regional stages to be validated as independent predictors, but not for advanced stages. Compared to older patients, younger patients with LC have a higher LCSS after surgery, despite the poorer biological behavior of this carcinoma.

Glucose transporter-1 as an independent prognostic marker for cancer: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Zhao, Zheng-Xiao; Lu, Lin-Wei; Qiu, Jian; Li, Qiu-Ping; Xu, Fei; Liu, Bao-Jun; Dong, Jing-Cheng; Gong, Wei-Yi

2018-01-01

Objective Glucose transporter-1 (GLUT-1) as the major glucose transporter present in human cells is found overexpressed in a proportion of human malignancies. This meta-analysis is attempted to assess the prognostic significance of GLUT-1 for survival in various cancers. Materials and Methods We conducted an electronic search using the databases PubMed, Embase and Web of Science, from inception to Oct 20th, 2016. Pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Results Fourty-one studies with a total of 4794 patients were included. High GLUT-1 expression was significantly associated with poorer prognosis [overall survival: HR = 1.833 (95% CI: 1.597–2.069, P < 0.0001); disease-free survival: HR = 1.838 (95% CI: 1.264–2.673, P < 0.0001); progression-free survival: HR = 2.451 (95% CI: 1.668–3.233, P < 0.0001); disease specific survival: HR = 1.96 (95% CI: 1.05–2.871, P < 0.0001)]. Conclusions High GLUT-1 expression may be an independent prognostic marker to predict poor survival in various types of cancers. Further clinical trials with high quality need to be conducted to confirm our conclusion. PMID:29416806

A Simple Method for Principal Strata Effects When the Outcome Has Been Truncated Due to Death

PubMed Central

Chiba, Yasutaka; VanderWeele, Tyler J.

2011-01-01

In randomized trials with follow-up, outcomes such as quality of life may be undefined for individuals who die before the follow-up is complete. In such settings, restricting analysis to those who survive can give rise to biased outcome comparisons. An alternative approach is to consider the “principal strata effect” or “survivor average causal effect” (SACE), defined as the effect of treatment on the outcome among the subpopulation that would have survived under either treatment arm. The authors describe a very simple technique that can be used to assess the SACE. They give both a sensitivity analysis technique and conditions under which a crude comparison provides a conservative estimate of the SACE. The method is illustrated using data from the ARDSnet (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Network) clinical trial comparing low-volume ventilation and traditional ventilation methods for individuals with acute respiratory distress syndrome. PMID:21354986

A simple method for principal strata effects when the outcome has been truncated due to death.

PubMed

Chiba, Yasutaka; VanderWeele, Tyler J

2011-04-01

In randomized trials with follow-up, outcomes such as quality of life may be undefined for individuals who die before the follow-up is complete. In such settings, restricting analysis to those who survive can give rise to biased outcome comparisons. An alternative approach is to consider the "principal strata effect" or "survivor average causal effect" (SACE), defined as the effect of treatment on the outcome among the subpopulation that would have survived under either treatment arm. The authors describe a very simple technique that can be used to assess the SACE. They give both a sensitivity analysis technique and conditions under which a crude comparison provides a conservative estimate of the SACE. The method is illustrated using data from the ARDSnet (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Network) clinical trial comparing low-volume ventilation and traditional ventilation methods for individuals with acute respiratory distress syndrome.

Prognostic Indications of Elevated MCT4 and CD147 across Cancer Types: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Bovenzi, Cory D.; Hamilton, James; Tassone, Patrick; Johnson, Jennifer; Cognetti, David M.; Luginbuhl, Adam; Keane, William M.; Zhan, Tingting; Tuluc, Madalina; Bar-Ad, Voichita; Martinez-Outschoorn, Ubaldo; Curry, Joseph M.

2015-01-01

Background. Metabolism in the tumor microenvironment can play a critical role in tumorigenesis and tumor aggression. Metabolic coupling may occur between tumor compartments; this phenomenon can be prognostically significant and may be conserved across tumor types. Monocarboxylate transporters (MCTs) play an integral role in cellular metabolism via lactate transport and have been implicated in metabolic synergy in tumors. The transporters MCT1 and MCT4 are regulated via expression of their chaperone, CD147. Methods. We conducted a meta-analysis of existing publications on the relationship between MCT1, MCT4, and CD147 expression and overall survival and disease-free survival in cancer, using hazard ratios derived via multivariate Cox regression analyses. Results. Increased MCT4 expressions in the tumor microenvironment, cancer cells, or stromal cells were all associated with decreased overall survival and decreased disease-free survival (p < 0.001 for all analyses). Increased CD147 expression in cancer cells was associated with decreased overall survival and disease-free survival (p < 0.0001 for both analyses). Few studies were available on MCT1 expression; MCT1 expression was not clearly associated with overall or disease-free survival. Conclusion. MCT4 and CD147 expression correlate with worse prognosis across many cancer types. These results warrant further investigation of these associations. PMID:26779534

[The role of meta-analysis in assessing the treatment of advanced non-small cell lung cancer].

PubMed

Pérol, M; Pérol, D

2004-02-01

Meta-analysis is a statistical method allowing an evaluation of the direction and quantitative importance of a treatment effect observed in randomized trials which have tested the treatment but have not provided a definitive conclusion. In the present review, we discuss the methodology and the contribution of meta-analyses to the treatment of advanced-stage or metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer. In this area of cancerology, meta-analyses have provided determining information demonstrating the impact of chemotherapy on patient survival. They have also helped define a two-drug regimen based on cisplatin as the gold standard treatment for patients with a satisfactory general status. Recently, the meta-analysis method was used to measure the influence of gemcitabin in combination with platinium salts and demonstrated a small but significant benefit in survival, confirming that gemcitabin remains the gold standard treatment in combination with cisplatin.

Imaging patterns predict patient survival and molecular subtype in glioblastoma via machine learning techniques

PubMed Central

Macyszyn, Luke; Akbari, Hamed; Pisapia, Jared M.; Da, Xiao; Attiah, Mark; Pigrish, Vadim; Bi, Yingtao; Pal, Sharmistha; Davuluri, Ramana V.; Roccograndi, Laura; Dahmane, Nadia; Martinez-Lage, Maria; Biros, George; Wolf, Ronald L.; Bilello, Michel; O'Rourke, Donald M.; Davatzikos, Christos

2016-01-01

Background MRI characteristics of brain gliomas have been used to predict clinical outcome and molecular tumor characteristics. However, previously reported imaging biomarkers have not been sufficiently accurate or reproducible to enter routine clinical practice and often rely on relatively simple MRI measures. The current study leverages advanced image analysis and machine learning algorithms to identify complex and reproducible imaging patterns predictive of overall survival and molecular subtype in glioblastoma (GB). Methods One hundred five patients with GB were first used to extract approximately 60 diverse features from preoperative multiparametric MRIs. These imaging features were used by a machine learning algorithm to derive imaging predictors of patient survival and molecular subtype. Cross-validation ensured generalizability of these predictors to new patients. Subsequently, the predictors were evaluated in a prospective cohort of 29 new patients. Results Survival curves yielded a hazard ratio of 10.64 for predicted long versus short survivors. The overall, 3-way (long/medium/short survival) accuracy in the prospective cohort approached 80%. Classification of patients into the 4 molecular subtypes of GB achieved 76% accuracy. Conclusions By employing machine learning techniques, we were able to demonstrate that imaging patterns are highly predictive of patient survival. Additionally, we found that GB subtypes have distinctive imaging phenotypes. These results reveal that when imaging markers related to infiltration, cell density, microvascularity, and blood–brain barrier compromise are integrated via advanced pattern analysis methods, they form very accurate predictive biomarkers. These predictive markers used solely preoperative images, hence they can significantly augment diagnosis and treatment of GB patients. PMID:26188015

Systematic review and meta-analysis of prognostic role of splenic vessels infiltration in resectable pancreatic cancer.

PubMed

Crippa, Stefano; Cirocchi, Roberto; Maisonneuve, Patrick; Partelli, Stefano; Pergolini, Ilaria; Tamburrino, Domenico; Aleotti, Francesca; Reni, Michele; Falconi, Massimo

2018-01-01

Identification of factors associated with dismal survival after surgery in resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is important to select patients for neoadjuvant treatment. The present meta-analysis aimed to compare the results of distal pancreatectomy for resectable adenocarcinoma of the pancreatic body-tail with and without splenic vessels infiltration. A systematic search was performed of PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. The inclusion criteria were studies including patients who underwent distal pancreatectomy for pancreatic cancer with or without splenic vessels infiltration. 5-year overall survival (OS) was the primary outcomes. Meta-analysis was carried out applying time-to-event method. Six articles with 423 patients were analysed. Patients with pathological splenic artery invasion had a worse survival compared with those without infiltration (Hazard ratio 1.76, 95% CI 1.36-2.28; P < 0.0001). A similar results was found when considering pathological splenic vessels infiltration, showing that survival was significantly poorer when splenic vein infiltration was present (Hazard ratio 1.51, 95% CI 1.19-1.93; P = 0.0009). This meta-analysis showed worse survival for patients with splenic vessels infiltration undergoing distal pancreatectomy for pancreatic cancer. Splenic vessels infiltration represents the stigmata of a more aggressive disease, although resectable. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd, BASO ~ The Association for Cancer Surgery, and the European Society of Surgical Oncology. All rights reserved.

Prognostic value of combined preoperative fibrinogen and neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation

PubMed Central

Chen, Mao-Gen; Wang, Xiao-Ping; Ju, Wei-Qiang; Zhao, Qiang; Wu, Lin-Wei; Ren, Qing-Qi; Guo, Zhi-Yong; Wang, Dong-Ping; Zhu, Xiao-Feng; Ma, Yi; He, Xiao-Shun

2017-01-01

Objectives Elevated plasma fibrinogen (Fib) correlated with patient's prognosis in several solid tumors. However, few studies have illuminated the relationship between preoperative Fib and prognosis of HCC after liver transplantation. We aimed to clarify the prognostic value of Fib and whether the prognostic accuracy can be enhanced by the combination of Fib and neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR). Results Fib was correlated with Child-pugh stage, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), size of largest tumor, macro- and micro-vascular invasion. Univariate analysis showed preoperative Fib, AFP, NLR, size of largest tumor, tumor number, macro- and micro- vascular invasion were significantly associated with disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) in HCC patients with liver transplantation. After multivariate analysis, only Fib and macro-vascular invasion were independently correlated with DFS and OS. Survival analysis showed that preoperative Fib > 2.345 g/L predicted poor prognosis of patients HCC after liver transplantation. Preoperative Fib showed prognostic value in various subgroups of HCC. Furthermore, the predictive range was expanded by the combination of Fib and NLR. Materials and Methods Data were collected retrospectively from 130 HCC patients who underwent liver transplantation. Preoperative Fib, NLR and clinicopathologic variables were analyzed. The survival analysis was performed by the Kaplan-Meier method, and compared by the log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the prognostic factors for DFS and OS. Conclusions Preoperative Fib is an independent effective predictor of prognosis for HCC patients, higher levels of Fib predict poorer outcomes and the combination of Fib and NLR enlarges the prognostic accuracy of testing. PMID:27935864

Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation in Patients With Terminal Illness: An Evidence-Based Analysis

PubMed Central

Sehatzadeh, S

2014-01-01

Background Cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) was first introduced in 1960 for people who unexpectedly experience sudden cardiac arrest. Over the years, it became routine practice in all institutions to perform CPR for all patients even though, for some patients with fatal conditions, application of CPR only prolongs the dying process through temporarily restoring cardiac function. Objectives This analysis aims to systematically review the literature to provide an accurate estimate of survival following CPR in patients with terminal health conditions. Data Sources A literature search was performed for studies published from January 1, 2004, until January 10, 2014. The search was updated monthly to March 1, 2014. Review Methods Abstracts and full text of studies that met eligibility criteria were reviewed. Reference lists were also examined for any additional relevant studies not identified through the search. Results Cancer patients have lower survival rates following CPR than patients with conditions other than cancer, and cancer patients who receive CPR in intensive care units have one-fifth the rate of survival to discharge of cancer patients who receive CPR in general wards. While the meta-analysis of studies published between 1967 and 2005 reported a lower survival to discharge for cancer patients (6.2%), more recent studies reported higher survival to discharge or to 30-day survival for these patients. Higher survival rates in more recent studies could originate with more “do not attempt resuscitation” orders for patients with end-stage cancer in recent years. Older age does not significantly decrease the rate of survival following CPR while the degree, the type, and the number of chronic health conditions; functional dependence; and multiple CPRs (particularly in advanced age) do reduce survival rates. Emergency Medical Services response time have a significant impact on survival following out-of-hospital CPR. Conclusions Survival after CPR depends on the severity of illness, type and number of health conditions, functional dependence, and multiple CPRs. PMID:26339301

Genetic polymorphisms in pre-miRNAs predict the survival of non-small-cell lung cancer in Chinese population: a cohort study and a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Xia, Lingzi; Yin, Zhihua; Li, Xuelian; Ren, Yangwu; Zhang, Haibo; Zhao, Yuxia; Zhou, Baosen

2017-01-01

Background To explore the association of genetic polymorphisms in pre-miRNA 30c-1 rs928508 and pre-miRNA 27a rs895819 with non-small-cell lung cancer prognosis. Materials and Methods 480 patients from five hospitals were enrolled in this prospective cohort study. They were followed up for five years. The association between genotypes and overall survival was assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression models. A meta-analysis was conducted to provide evidence for the effect of microRNA 27a rs895819 on cancer survival. Results G-allele containing genotypes of microRNA 30c-1 polymorphisms and C-allele containing genotypes of microRNA 27a were significantly associated with poorer overall survival. Multivariate Cox regression models indicated that these genetic polymorhpisms were independently predictive factors of poorer overall survival. In stratified analysis, the effect was observed in many strata. The significant joint effect was also observed in our study. Patients with G allele of microRNA 30c-1 rs928508 and C allele of microRNA 27a rs895819 had the poorer overall survival than patients with C allele of rs928508 and T allele of rs895819. The effect of the microRNA 27a rs895819 on non-small cell lung cancer overall survival was supported by the meta-analysis results. Conclusions The two single nucleotide polymorphisms in microRNA 30c-1 and microRNA 27a can predict the outcome of non-small cell lung cancer patients and they may decrease the sensitivity to anti-cancer drugs. PMID:29100439

Factors affecting survival outcomes of patients with non-metastatic Ewing's sarcoma family tumors in the spine: a retrospective analysis of 63 patients in a single center.

PubMed

Wan, Wei; Lou, Yan; Hu, Zhiqi; Wang, Ting; Li, Jinsong; Tang, Yu; Wu, Zhipeng; Xu, Leqin; Yang, Xinghai; Song, Dianwen; Xiao, Jianru

2017-01-01

Little information has been published in the literature regarding survival outcomes of patients with Ewing's sarcoma family tumors (ESFTs) of the spine. The purpose of this study is to explore factors that may affect the prognosis of patients with non-metastatic spinal ESFTs. A retrospective analysis of survival outcomes was performed in patients with non-metastatic spinal ESFTs. Univariate and multivariate analyses were employed to identify prognostic factors for recurrence and survival. Recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were defined as the date of surgery to the date of local relapse and death. Kaplan-Meier methods were applied to estimate RFS and OS. Log-rank test was used to analyze single factors for RFS and OS. Factors with p values ≤0.1 were subjected to multivariate analysis. A total of 63 patients with non-metastatic spinal ESFTs were included in this study. The mean follow-up period was 35.1 months (range 1-155). Postoperative recurrence was detected in 25 patients, and distant metastasis and death occurred in 22 and 36 patients respectively. The result of multivariate analysis suggested that age older than 25 years and neoadjuvant chemotherapy were favorable independent prognostic factors for RFS and OS. In addition, total en-bloc resection, postoperative chemotherapy, radiotherapy and non-distant metastasis were favorable independent prognostic factors for OS. Age older than 25 years and neoadjuvant chemotherapy are favorable prognostic factors for both RFS and OS. In addition, total en-bloc resection, postoperative chemotherapy, radiotherapy and non-distant metastasis are closely associated with favorable survival.

Meta-analysis of single-arm survival studies: a distribution-free approach for estimating summary survival curves with random effects.

PubMed

Combescure, Christophe; Foucher, Yohann; Jackson, Daniel

2014-07-10

In epidemiologic studies and clinical trials with time-dependent outcome (for instance death or disease progression), survival curves are used to describe the risk of the event over time. In meta-analyses of studies reporting a survival curve, the most informative finding is a summary survival curve. In this paper, we propose a method to obtain a distribution-free summary survival curve by expanding the product-limit estimator of survival for aggregated survival data. The extension of DerSimonian and Laird's methodology for multiple outcomes is applied to account for the between-study heterogeneity. Statistics I(2)  and H(2) are used to quantify the impact of the heterogeneity in the published survival curves. A statistical test for between-strata comparison is proposed, with the aim to explore study-level factors potentially associated with survival. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated in a simulation study. Our approach is also applied to synthesize the survival of untreated patients with hepatocellular carcinoma from aggregate data of 27 studies and synthesize the graft survival of kidney transplant recipients from individual data from six hospitals. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Survival Impact of Adjuvant Radiation Therapy in Masaoka Stage II to IV Thymomas: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lim, Yu Jin; Kim, Eunji; Kim, Hak Jae, E-mail: khjae@snu.ac.kr

Purpose: To evaluate the survival impact of postoperative radiation therapy (PORT) in stage II to IV thymomas, using systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods and Materials: A database search was conducted with EMBASE, PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and Ovid from inception to August 2015. Thymic carcinomas were excluded, and studies comparing overall survival (OS) with and without PORT in thymomas were included. The hazard ratios (HRs) of OS were extracted, and a random-effects model was used in the pooled analysis. Results: Seven retrospective series with a total of 1724 patients were included and analyzed. Almost all of the patients underwentmore » macroscopically complete resection, and thymoma histology was confirmed by the World Health Organization criteria. In the overall analysis of stage II to IV thymomas, OS was not altered with the receipt of PORT (HR 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.58-1.08). Although PORT was not associated with survival difference in Masaoka stage II disease (HR 1.45, 95% CI 0.83-2.55), improved OS was observed with the addition of PORT in the discrete pooled analysis of stage III to IV (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.40-0.99). Significant heterogeneity and publication bias were not found in the analyses. Conclusions: From the present meta-analysis of sole primary thymomas, we suggest the potential OS benefit of PORT in locally advanced tumors with macroscopically complete resection, but not in stage II disease. Further investigations with sufficient survival data are needed to establish detailed treatment indications.« less

Randomized controlled trial of internal and external targeted temperature management methods in post- cardiac arrest patients.

PubMed

Look, Xinqi; Li, Huihua; Ng, Mingwei; Lim, Eric Tien Siang; Pothiawala, Sohil; Tan, Kenneth Boon Kiat; Sewa, Duu Wen; Shahidah, Nur; Pek, Pin Pin; Ong, Marcus Eng Hock

2018-01-01

Targeted temperature management post-cardiac arrest is currently implemented using various methods, broadly categorized as internal and external. This study aimed to evaluate survival-to-hospital discharge and neurological outcomes (Glasgow-Pittsburgh Score) of post-cardiac arrest patients undergoing internal cooling verses external cooling. A randomized controlled trial of post-resuscitation cardiac arrest patients was conducted from October 2008-September 2014. Patients were randomized to either internal or external cooling methods. Historical controls were selected matched by age and gender. Analysis using SPSS version 21.0 presented descriptive statistics and frequencies while univariate logistic regression was done using R 3.1.3. 23 patients were randomized to internal cooling and 22 patients to external cooling and 42 matched controls were selected. No significant difference was seen between internal and external cooling in terms of survival, neurological outcomes and complications. However in the internal cooling arm, there was lower risk of developing overcooling (p=0.01) and rebound hyperthermia (p=0.02). Compared to normothermia, internal cooling had higher survival (OR=3.36, 95% CI=(1.130, 10.412), and lower risk of developing cardiac arrhythmias (OR=0.18, 95% CI=(0.04, 0.63)). Subgroup analysis showed those with cardiac cause of arrest (OR=4.29, 95% CI=(1.26, 15.80)) and sustained ROSC (OR=5.50, 95% CI=(1.64, 20.39)) had better survival with internal cooling compared to normothermia. Cooling curves showed tighter temperature control for internal compared to external cooling. Internal cooling showed tighter temperature control compared to external cooling. Internal cooling can potentially provide better survival-to-hospital discharge outcomes and reduce cardiac arrhythmia complications in carefully selected patients as compared to normothermia. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Characteristics and Outcomes of Patients with Ewing Sarcoma Over 40 Years of Age at Diagnosis

PubMed Central

Karski, Erin E.; Matthay, Katherine K.; Neuhaus, John M.; Goldsby, Robert E.; DuBois, Steven G.

2012-01-01

Background The peak incidence of Ewing sarcoma (EWS) is in adolescence, with little known about patients who are ≥ 40 years at diagnosis. We describe the clinical characteristics and survival of this rare group. Methods This retrospective cohort study utilized the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database. 2780 patients were identified; including 383 patients diagnosed ≥ 40 years. Patient characteristics between age groups were compared using chi-squared tests. Survival from diagnosis to death was estimated via Kaplan-Meier methods, compared with log-rank tests, and modeled using multivariable Cox methods. A competing risks analysis was performed to evaluate death due to cancer. Results Patients ≥ 40 years of age were more likely to have extra-skeletal tumors (66.1% v 31.7%; p<0.001), axial tumors (64.0% v 57.2%; p=0.01), and metastatic disease at diagnosis (35.5% v 30.0%; p=0.04) compared to younger patients. Five-year survival for those age ≥ 40 and age < 40 were 40.6% and 54.3%, respectively (p<0.0001). A Cox multivariable model controlling for differences between groups confirmed inferior survival for older patients (hazard ratio for death of 2.04; 95% CI 1.63 - 2.54; p < 0.0001); though treatment data were unavailable and not controlled for in the model. A competing risks analysis confirmed increased risk of cancer-related death in older patients. Conclusion Patients ≥ 40 years at diagnosis with EWS are more likely to have extra-skeletal tumors, metastatic disease, and axial primary tumors suggesting a difference in tumor biology. Independent of differences in these characteristics, older patients also have a lower survival rate. PMID:22959474

Multivariate meta-analysis using individual participant data

PubMed Central

Riley, R. D.; Price, M. J.; Jackson, D.; Wardle, M.; Gueyffier, F.; Wang, J.; Staessen, J. A.; White, I. R.

2016-01-01

When combining results across related studies, a multivariate meta-analysis allows the joint synthesis of correlated effect estimates from multiple outcomes. Joint synthesis can improve efficiency over separate univariate syntheses, may reduce selective outcome reporting biases, and enables joint inferences across the outcomes. A common issue is that within-study correlations needed to fit the multivariate model are unknown from published reports. However, provision of individual participant data (IPD) allows them to be calculated directly. Here, we illustrate how to use IPD to estimate within-study correlations, using a joint linear regression for multiple continuous outcomes and bootstrapping methods for binary, survival and mixed outcomes. In a meta-analysis of 10 hypertension trials, we then show how these methods enable multivariate meta-analysis to address novel clinical questions about continuous, survival and binary outcomes; treatment–covariate interactions; adjusted risk/prognostic factor effects; longitudinal data; prognostic and multiparameter models; and multiple treatment comparisons. Both frequentist and Bayesian approaches are applied, with example software code provided to derive within-study correlations and to fit the models. PMID:26099484

Correcting bias due to missing stage data in the non-parametric estimation of stage-specific net survival for colorectal cancer using multiple imputation.

PubMed

Falcaro, Milena; Carpenter, James R

2017-06-01

Population-based net survival by tumour stage at diagnosis is a key measure in cancer surveillance. Unfortunately, data on tumour stage are often missing for a non-negligible proportion of patients and the mechanism giving rise to the missingness is usually anything but completely at random. In this setting, restricting analysis to the subset of complete records gives typically biased results. Multiple imputation is a promising practical approach to the issues raised by the missing data, but its use in conjunction with the Pohar-Perme method for estimating net survival has not been formally evaluated. We performed a resampling study using colorectal cancer population-based registry data to evaluate the ability of multiple imputation, used along with the Pohar-Perme method, to deliver unbiased estimates of stage-specific net survival and recover missing stage information. We created 1000 independent data sets, each containing 5000 patients. Stage data were then made missing at random under two scenarios (30% and 50% missingness). Complete records analysis showed substantial bias and poor confidence interval coverage. Across both scenarios our multiple imputation strategy virtually eliminated the bias and greatly improved confidence interval coverage. In the presence of missing stage data complete records analysis often gives severely biased results. We showed that combining multiple imputation with the Pohar-Perme estimator provides a valid practical approach for the estimation of stage-specific colorectal cancer net survival. As usual, when the percentage of missing data is high the results should be interpreted cautiously and sensitivity analyses are recommended. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the Cost Effectiveness of Vesico-Amniotic Shunting in the Management of Congenital Lower Urinary Tract Obstruction (Based on Data from the PLUTO Trial)

PubMed Central

Diwakar, Lavanya; Morris, Rachel K.; Barton, Pelham; Middleton, Lee J.; Kilby, Mark D.; Roberts, Tracy E.

2013-01-01

Objective To determine the cost-effectiveness of in-utero percutaneous Vesico Amniotic Shunt (VAS) in the management of fetal lower urinary tract obstruction (LUTO) Design Model based economic analysis using data from the randomised controlled arm of the PLUTO (percutaneous vesico-amniotic shunting for lower urinary tract obstruction) trial. Setting Fetal medicine departments in United Kingdom, Ireland and Netherlands. Population or Sample Pregnant women with a male, singleton fetus with LUTO. Methods Costs and outcomes were prospectively collected in the trial; three separate base case analyses were performed using the intention to treat (ITT), per protocol and uniform prior methods. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to explore data uncertainty. Main Outcome Measures Survival at 28 days, 1 year and disease free survival at 1 year. Results VAS was more expensive but appeared to result in higher rates of survival compared with conservative management in patients with LUTO. Using ITT analysis the incremental cost effectiveness ratios based on outcomes of survival at 28 days, 1 year, or 1 morbidity-free year on the VAS arm were £15,506, £15,545, and £43,932, respectively. Conclusions VAS is a more expensive option compared to the conservative approach in the management of individuals with LUTO. Data from the RCT suggest that VAS improves neonatal survival but does not result in significant improvements in morbidity. Our analysis concludes that VAS is not likely to be cost effective in the management of these patients given the NICE (National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence) cost threshold of £20,000 per QALY. PMID:24376546

Single nucleotide polymorphisms in the mitochondrial displacement loop and outcome of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Zhang, Ruixing; Wang, Rui; Zhang, Fengbin; Wu, Chensi; Fan, Haiyan; Li, Yan; Wang, Cuiju; Guo, Zhanjun

2010-11-26

Accumulation of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the displacement loop (D-loop) of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) has been described for different types of cancers and might be associated with cancer risk and disease outcome. We used a population-based series of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients for investigating the prediction power of SNPs in mitochondrial D-loop. The D-loop region of mtDNA was sequenced for 60 ESCC patients recorded in the Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University between 2003 and 2004. The 5 year survival curve were calculated with the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the log-rank test at each SNP site, a multivariate survival analysis was also performed with the Cox proportional hazards method. The SNP sites of nucleotides 16274G/A, 16278C/T and 16399A/G were identified for prediction of post-operational survival by the log-rank test. In an overall multivariate analysis, the 16278 and 16399 alleles were identified as independent predictors of ESCC outcome. The length of survival of patients with the minor allele 16278T genotype was significantly shorter than that of patients with 16278C at the 16278 site (relative risk, 3.001; 95% CI, 1.029 - 8.756; p = 0.044). The length of survival of patients with the minor allele 16399G genotype was significantly shorter than that of patients with the more frequent allele 16399A at the 16399 site in ESCC patients (relative risk, 3.483; 95% CI, 1.068 - 11.359; p = 0.039). Genetic polymorphisms in the D-loop are independent prognostic markers for patients with ESCC. Accordingly, the analysis of genetic polymorphisms in the mitochondrial D-loop can help identify patient subgroups at high risk of a poor disease outcome.

Enhancing tumor apparent diffusion coefficient histogram skewness stratifies the postoperative survival in recurrent glioblastoma multiforme patients undergoing salvage surgery.

PubMed

Zolal, Amir; Juratli, Tareq A; Linn, Jennifer; Podlesek, Dino; Sitoci Ficici, Kerim Hakan; Kitzler, Hagen H; Schackert, Gabriele; Sobottka, Stephan B; Rieger, Bernhard; Krex, Dietmar

2016-05-01

Objective To determine the value of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) histogram parameters for the prediction of individual survival in patients undergoing surgery for recurrent glioblastoma (GBM) in a retrospective cohort study. Methods Thirty-one patients who underwent surgery for first recurrence of a known GBM between 2008 and 2012 were included. The following parameters were collected: age, sex, enhancing tumor size, mean ADC, median ADC, ADC skewness, ADC kurtosis and fifth percentile of the ADC histogram, initial progression free survival (PFS), extent of second resection and further adjuvant treatment. The association of these parameters with survival and PFS after second surgery was analyzed using log-rank test and Cox regression. Results Using log-rank test, ADC histogram skewness of the enhancing tumor was significantly associated with both survival (p = 0.001) and PFS after second surgery (p = 0.005). Further parameters associated with prolonged survival after second surgery were: gross total resection at second surgery (p = 0.026), tumor size (0.040) and third surgery (p = 0.003). In the multivariate Cox analysis, ADC histogram skewness was shown to be an independent prognostic factor for survival after second surgery. Conclusion ADC histogram skewness of the enhancing lesion, enhancing lesion size, third surgery, as well as gross total resection have been shown to be associated with survival following the second surgery. ADC histogram skewness was an independent prognostic factor for survival in the multivariate analysis.

Jaundice: an important, poorly recognized risk factor for diminished survival in patients with adenocarcinoma of the head of the pancreas

PubMed Central

Strasberg, Steven M; Gao, Feng; Sanford, Dominic; Linehan, David C; Hawkins, William G; Fields, Ryan; Carpenter, Danielle H; Brunt, Elizabeth M; Phillips, Carolyn

2014-01-01

Objectives: Jaundice impairs cellular immunity, an important defence against the dissemination of cancer. Jaundice is a common mode of presentation in pancreatic head adenocarcinoma. The purpose of this study was to determine whether there is an association between preoperative jaundice and survival in patients who have undergone resection of such tumours. Methods: Thirty possible survival risk factors were evaluated in a database of over 400 resected patients. Univariate analysis was used to determine odds ratio for death. All factors for which a P-value of <0.30 was obtained were entered into a multivariate analysis using the Cox model with backward selection. Results: Preoperative jaundice, age, positive node status, poor differentiation and lymphatic invasion were significant indicators of poor outcome in multivariate analysis. Absence of jaundice was a highly favourable prognostic factor. Interaction emerged between jaundice and nodal status. The benefit conferred by the absence of jaundice was restricted to patients in whom negative node status was present. Five-year overall survival in this group was 66%. Jaundiced patients who underwent preoperative stenting had a survival advantage. Conclusions: Preoperative jaundice is a negative risk factor in adenocarcinoma of the pancreas. Additional studies are required to determine the exact mechanism for this effect. PMID:23600768

High serum uric acid concentration predicts poor survival in patients with breast cancer.

PubMed

Yue, Cai-Feng; Feng, Pin-Ning; Yao, Zhen-Rong; Yu, Xue-Gao; Lin, Wen-Bin; Qian, Yuan-Min; Guo, Yun-Miao; Li, Lai-Sheng; Liu, Min

2017-10-01

Uric acid is a product of purine metabolism. Recently, uric acid has gained much attraction in cancer. In this study, we aim to investigate the clinicopathological and prognostic significance of serum uric acid concentration in breast cancer patients. A total of 443 female patients with histopathologically diagnosed breast cancer were included. After a mean follow-up time of 56months, survival was analysed using the Kaplan-Meier method. To further evaluate the prognostic significance of uric acid concentrations, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were applied. Of the clinicopathological parameters, uric acid concentration was associated with age, body mass index, ER status and PR status. Univariate analysis identified that patients with increased uric acid concentration had a significantly inferior overall survival (HR 2.13, 95% CI 1.15-3.94, p=0.016). In multivariate analysis, we found that high uric acid concentration is an independent prognostic factor predicting death, but insufficient to predict local relapse or distant metastasis. Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that high uric acid concentration is related to the poor overall survival (p=0.013). High uric acid concentration predicts poor survival in patients with breast cancer, and might serve as a potential marker for appropriate management of breast cancer patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Epinephrine in cardiac arrest: systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Morales-Cané, Ignacio; Valverde-León, María Del Rocío; Rodríguez-Borrego, María Aurora

2016-01-01

abstract Objective: evaluate the effectiveness of epinephrine used during cardiac arrest and its effect on the survival rates and neurological condition. Method: systematic review of scientific literature with meta-analysis, using a random effects model. The following databases were used to research clinical trials and observational studies: Medline, Embase and Cochrane, from 2005 to 2015. Results: when the Return of Spontaneous Circulation (ROSC) with administration of epinephrine was compared with ROSC without administration, increased rates were found with administration (OR 2.02. 95% CI 1.49 to 2.75; I2 = 95%). Meta-analysis showed an increase in survival to discharge or 30 days after administration of epinephrine (OR 1.23; 95% IC 1.05-1.44; I2=83%). Stratification by shockable and non-shockable rhythms showed an increase in survival for non-shockable rhythm (OR 1.52; 95% IC 1.29-1.78; I2=42%). When compared with delayed administration, the administration of epinephrine within 10 minutes showed an increased survival rate (OR 2.03; 95% IC 1.77-2.32; I2=0%). Conclusion: administration of epinephrine appears to increase the rate of ROSC, but when compared with other therapies, no positive effect was found on survival rates of patients with favorable neurological status. PMID:27982306

Five-Year Survival Rates for Treatment-Naive Patients With Advanced Melanoma Who Received Ipilimumab Plus Dacarbazine in a Phase III Trial

PubMed Central

Maio, Michele; Grob, Jean-Jacques; Aamdal, Steinar; Bondarenko, Igor; Robert, Caroline; Thomas, Luc; Garbe, Claus; Chiarion-Sileni, Vanna; Testori, Alessandro; Chen, Tai-Tsang; Tschaika, Marina; Wolchok, Jedd D.

2015-01-01

Purpose There is evidence from nonrandomized studies that a proportion of ipilimumab-treated patients with advanced melanoma experience long-term survival. To demonstrate a long-term survival benefit with ipilimumab, we evaluated the 5-year survival rates of patients treated in a randomized, controlled phase III trial. Patients and Methods A milestone survival analysis was conducted to capture the 5-year survival rate of treatment-naive patients with advanced melanoma who received ipilimumab in a phase III trial. Patients were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive ipilimumab at 10 mg/kg plus dacarbazine (n = 250) or placebo plus dacarbazine (n = 252) at weeks 1, 4, 7, and 10 followed by dacarbazine alone every 3 weeks through week 22. Eligible patients could receive maintenance ipilimumab or placebo every 12 weeks beginning at week 24. A safety analysis was conducted on patients who survived at least 5 years and continued to receive ipilimumab as maintenance therapy. Results The 5-year survival rate was 18.2% (95% CI, 13.6% to 23.4%) for patients treated with ipilimumab plus dacarbazine versus 8.8% (95% CI, 5.7% to 12.8%) for patients treated with placebo plus dacarbazine (P = .002). A plateau in the survival curve began at approximately 3 years. In patients who survived at least 5 years and continued to receive ipilimumab, grade 3 or 4 immune-related adverse events were observed exclusively in the skin. Conclusion The additional survival benefit of ipilimumab plus dacarbazine is maintained with twice as many patients alive at 5 years compared with those who initially received placebo plus dacarbazine. These results demonstrate a durable survival benefit with ipilimumab in advanced melanoma. PMID:25713437

Quantifying the Benefit of a Pathologic Complete Response After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy in the Treatment of Esophageal Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scheer, Richard V.; Fakiris, Achilles J.; Johnstone, Peter A.S., E-mail: pajohnst@iupui.edu

Purpose: To better define the benefit of a pathologic complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in the treatment of esophageal and gastroesophageal cancer, we undertook a comprehensive review of the literature to derive a pooled analysis of crude survival data and quantify the survival benefit of pCR vs. residual disease at esophagectomy. Methods and Materials: In all, 22 articles were reviewed. Crude overall survival data, stratified by patients with pCR vs. those with residual disease at esophagectomy, were collected and analyzed using a chi-square analysis. The relative and absolute survival benefit of achieving a pCR were calculated and analyzed. Finally,more » stratified median survival times were also analyzed. Results: Overall survival for patients with pCR was 93.1%, 75.0%, and 50.0% at 2, 3, and 5 years, respectively, whereas it was 36.8%, 29.0%, and 22.6% for patients with residual tumor (p < 0.025). The mean relative survival benefit of pCR at 2, 3, and 5 years was 2.05, 2.35, and 2.84, respectively. The mean absolute survival benefit of pCR was 35.66%, 33.79%, and 33.20%, respectively. Median survival times for patients with pCR were significantly longer than for those with residual tumor (p = 0.011). Conclusion: In esophageal and gastroesophageal cancers, pCR seems to significantly increase overall survival in patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Specifically, the data suggest that patients with pCR are two to three times more likely to survive than are those with residual tumor at esophagectomy. Moreover, these data suggest that 33-36% more patients survive when pCR is achieved than when it is not.« less

Geographical variation in cancer survival in England, 1991–2006: an analysis by Cancer Network

PubMed Central

Quaresma, Manuela; Coleman, Michel P; Gordon, Emma; Forman, David; Rachet, Bernard

2011-01-01

Background Reducing geographical inequalities in cancer survival in England was a key aim of the Calman–Hine Report (1995) and the NHS Cancer Plan (2000). This study assesses whether geographical inequalities changed following these policy developments by analysing the trend in 1-year relative survival in the 28 cancer networks of England. Methods Population-based age-standardised relative survival at 1 year is estimated for 1.4 million patients diagnosed with cancer of the oesophagus, stomach, colon, lung, breast (women) or cervix in England during 1991–2006 and followed up to 2007. Regional and deprivation-specific life tables are built to adjust survival estimates for differences in background mortality. Analysis is divided into three calendar periods: 1991–5, 1996–2000 and 2001–6. Funnel plots are used to assess geographical variation in survival over time. Results One-year relative survival improved for all cancers except cervical cancer. There was a wide geographical variation in survival with generally lower estimates in northern England. This north–south divide became less marked over time, although the overall number of cancer networks that were lower outliers compared with the England value remained stable. Breast cancer was the only cancer for which there was a marked reduction in geographical inequality in survival over time. Conclusion Policy changes over the past two decades coincided with improved relative survival, without an increase in geographical variation. The north–south divide in relative survival became less pronounced over time but geographical inequalities persist. The reduction in geographical inequality in breast cancer survival may be followed by a similar trend for other cancers, provided government recommendations are implemented similarly. PMID:21321064

Metronomic palliative chemotherapy in maxillary sinus tumor

PubMed Central

Patil, Vijay M.; Noronh, Vanita; Joshi, Amit; Karpe, Ashay; Talreja, Vikas; Chandrasekharan, Arun; Dhumal, Sachin; Prabhash, Kumar

2016-01-01

Background: Metronomic chemotherapy consisting of methotrexate and celecoxib recently has shown promising results in multiple studies in head and neck cancers. However, these studies have not included patients with maxillary sinus primaries. Hence, the role of palliative metronomic chemotherapy in patients with maxillary sinus carcinoma that is not amenable to radical therapy is unknown. Methods: This was a retrospective analysis of carcinoma maxillary sinus patients who received palliative metronomic chemotherapy between August 2011 and August 2014. The demographic details, symptomatology, previous treatment details, indication for palliative chemotherapy, response to therapy, and overall survival (OS) details were extracted. SPSS version 16 was used for analysis. Descriptive statistics have been performed. Survival analysis was done by Kaplan–Meier method. Results: Five patients had received metronomic chemotherapy. The median age was 60 years (range 37–64 years). The proportion of patients surviving at 6 months, 12 months, and 18 months were 40%, 40%, and 20%, respectively. The estimated median OS was 126 days (95% confidence interval 0–299.9 days). The estimated median survival in patients with an event-free period after the last therapy of <6 months was 45 days, whereas it was 409 days in patients with an event-free period postlast therapy above 6 months (P = 0.063). Conclusion: Metronomic chemotherapy in carcinoma maxillary sinus holds promise. It has activity similar to that seen in head and neck cancers and needs to be evaluated further in a larger cohort of patients. PMID:27275447

Survival analysis with functional covariates for partial follow-up studies.

PubMed

Fang, Hong-Bin; Wu, Tong Tong; Rapoport, Aaron P; Tan, Ming

2016-12-01

Predictive or prognostic analysis plays an increasingly important role in the era of personalized medicine to identify subsets of patients whom the treatment may benefit the most. Although various time-dependent covariate models are available, such models require that covariates be followed in the whole follow-up period. This article studies a new class of functional survival models where the covariates are only monitored in a time interval that is shorter than the whole follow-up period. This paper is motivated by the analysis of a longitudinal study on advanced myeloma patients who received stem cell transplants and T cell infusions after the transplants. The absolute lymphocyte cell counts were collected serially during hospitalization. Those patients are still followed up if they are alive after hospitalization, while their absolute lymphocyte cell counts cannot be measured after that. Another complication is that absolute lymphocyte cell counts are sparsely and irregularly measured. The conventional method using Cox model with time-varying covariates is not applicable because of the different lengths of observation periods. Analysis based on each single observation obviously underutilizes available information and, more seriously, may yield misleading results. This so-called partial follow-up study design represents increasingly common predictive modeling problem where we have serial multiple biomarkers up to a certain time point, which is shorter than the total length of follow-up. We therefore propose a solution to the partial follow-up design. The new method combines functional principal components analysis and survival analysis with selection of those functional covariates. It also has the advantage of handling sparse and irregularly measured longitudinal observations of covariates and measurement errors. Our analysis based on functional principal components reveals that it is the patterns of the trajectories of absolute lymphocyte cell counts, instead of the actual counts, that affect patient's disease-free survival time. © The Author(s) 2014.

[Effect of Fuzheng Huayu capsules on survival rate of patients with liver cirrhosis].

PubMed

Ge, X J; Zhao, C Q; Xu, L M

2017-11-20

Objective: To investigate the effect of Fuzheng Huayu capsules on the survival rate of patients with liver cirrhosis. Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of the patients with various types of liver cirrhosis who were hospitalized in Shuguang Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2008. The data collected for these patients included their basic information, diagnosis and treatment, and results of laboratory examination. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to analyze the effect of Fuzheng Huayu capsules on the survival rate of patients with liver cancer. The starting point of observation was the first day of the patient's admission and the ending point of follow-up observation was the date of death or the end of follow-up April 1, 2014. The cut-off value was obtained if the patient did not experience any outcome event (death) at the end of follow-up. With reference to the outcome, the time when the outcome occurred, and the cut-off value, the life-table method was used to calculate survival rates and survival curves were plotted. The Kaplan-Meier product-limit method was used to calculate the arithmetic mean of survival time and median survival time, and the log-rank test was used to compare the survival data. Results: A total of 430 patients with liver cirrhosis were enrolled, among whom 191 died and 239 survived or were censored. The average constituent ratio of death was 55.6% and the average constituent ratio of survival was 44.4%. The life-table method showed that the half-, 1-, 2-, and 5-year survival rates were 70%, 64%, 58%, and 48%, respectively. The median survival time was 112.1 weeks for the patients who did not take Fuzheng Huayu capsules and 351.6 weeks for those who did, and there was a significant difference in survival rate between the two groups ( P = 0.000). Among 313 patients who had an etiology of hepatitis B, 164 did not take Fuzheng Huayu capsules and had a median survival time of 195.9 weeks and a 5-year survival rate of 44%, and 149 took Fuzheng Huayu capsules and had a median survival time of 336.9 weeks and a 5-year survival rate of 59%; there was a significant difference in survival rate between the two groups ( P = 0.038). Among 117 patients who did not have hepatitis B, 68 did not take Fuzheng Huayu capsules and had a median survival time of 78.1 weeks and a 5-year survival rate of 32%, and 49 took Fuzheng Huayu capsules and had a median survival time of 277.4 weeks and a 5-year survival rate of 53%; there was a significant difference in survival rate between the two groups ( P = 0.013). Among 92 patients with compensated liver cirrhosis, 47 did not take Fuzheng Huayu capsules and had a 5-year survival rate of 65%, and 45 took Fuzheng Huayu capsules and had a 5-year survival rate of 82%; both groups of patients had a median survival of 440 weeks; there was a significant difference in survival rate between the two groups ( P = 0.027). Among 338 patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis, 185 did not take Fuzheng Huayu capsules and had a median survival time of 60.3 weeks and a 5-year survival rate of 33%, and 153 took Fuzheng Huayu capsules and had a median survival time of 267.7 weeks and a 5-year survival rate of 51%; there was a significant difference in survival rate between the two groups ( P = 0.001). Conclusion: Fuzheng Huayu capsules can improve the prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis and increase their survival rates and have good long-term efficacy.

WE-H-BRA-08: A Monte Carlo Cell Nucleus Model for Assessing Cell Survival Probability Based On Particle Track Structure Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, B; Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; Wang, C

Purpose: To correlate the damage produced by particles of different types and qualities to cell survival on the basis of nanodosimetric analysis and advanced DNA structures in the cell nucleus. Methods: A Monte Carlo code was developed to simulate subnuclear DNA chromatin fibers (CFs) of 30nm utilizing a mean-free-path approach common to radiation transport. The cell nucleus was modeled as a spherical region containing 6000 chromatin-dense domains (CDs) of 400nm diameter, with additional CFs modeled in a sparser interchromatin region. The Geant4-DNA code was utilized to produce a particle track database representing various particles at different energies and dose quantities.more » These tracks were used to stochastically position the DNA structures based on their mean free path to interaction with CFs. Excitation and ionization events intersecting CFs were analyzed using the DBSCAN clustering algorithm for assessment of the likelihood of producing DSBs. Simulated DSBs were then assessed based on their proximity to one another for a probability of inducing cell death. Results: Variations in energy deposition to chromatin fibers match expectations based on differences in particle track structure. The quality of damage to CFs based on different particle types indicate more severe damage by high-LET radiation than low-LET radiation of identical particles. In addition, the model indicates more severe damage by protons than of alpha particles of same LET, which is consistent with differences in their track structure. Cell survival curves have been produced showing the L-Q behavior of sparsely ionizing radiation. Conclusion: Initial results indicate the feasibility of producing cell survival curves based on the Monte Carlo cell nucleus method. Accurate correlation between simulated DNA damage to cell survival on the basis of nanodosimetric analysis can provide insight into the biological responses to various radiation types. Current efforts are directed at producing cell survival curves for high-LET radiation.« less

Analysis of prognostic factors for survival in patients with primary spinal chordoma using the SEER Registry from 1973 to 2014.

PubMed

Pan, Yue; Lu, Lingyun; Chen, Junquan; Zhong, Yong; Dai, Zhehao

2018-04-06

Spinal chordomas are rare primary osseous tumors that arise from the remnants of the notochord. They are commonly considered slow-growing, locally invasive neoplasms with little tendency to metastasize, but the high recurrent rate of spinal chordomas may seriously affect the survival rate and quality of life of patients. The aim of the study is to describe the epidemiological data and determine the prognostic factors for decreased survival in patients with primary spinal chordoma. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Registry database, a US population-based cancer registry database, was used to identify all patients diagnosed with primary spinal chordoma from 1973 to 2014. We utilized Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis to evaluate the association between patients overall survival and relevant characteristics, including age, gender, race, disease stage, treatment methods, primary tumor site, marital status, and urban county background. In the data set between 1973 and 2014, a total of 808 patients were identified with primary spinal chordoma. The overall rate of distant metastatic cases in our cohort was only 7.7%. Spinal chordoma was more common occurred in men (62.6%) than women (37.3%). Majority of neoplasms were found in the White (87.9%), while the incidence of the Black is relatively infrequent (3.3%). Three hundred fifty-seven spinal chordomas (44.2%) were located in the vertebral column, while 451 patients' tumor (55.8%) was located in the sacrum or pelvis. Age ≥ 60 years (HR = 2.72; 95%CI, 1.71 to 2.89), distant metastasis (HR = 2.16; 95%CI, 1.54 to 3.02), and non-surgical therapy (HR = 2.14; 95%CI, 1.72 to 2.69) were independent risk factors for survival reduction in analysis. Survival did not significantly differ as a factor of tumor site (vertebrae vs sacrum/pelvis) for primary spinal chordoma (HR = 0.93, P = 0.16). Race (P = 0.52), gender (P = 0.11), marital status (P = 0.94), and urban background (P = 0.72) were not main factors which affected overall survival rate. There was no significant difference in overall survival rate between chordomas located in the sacrum and vertebral column. Spinal chordoma patients with an elderly age (age ≥ 60), performing non-surgical therapy, and distant metastasis were associated with worse overall survival. Performing surgery was an effective and reliable treatment method for patients with spinal chordoma, and public health efforts should pay more attention to the elderly patients with spinal chordoma prior to distant metastasis.

{sup 18}Fluorodeoxyglucose PET Is Prognostic of Progression-Free and Overall Survival in Locally Advanced Pancreas Cancer Treated With Stereotactic Radiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schellenberg, Devin; Quon, Andy; Minn, A. Yuriko

2010-08-01

Purpose: This study analyzed the prognostic value of positron emission tomography (PET) for locally advanced pancreas cancer patients undergoing stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT). Patients and Methods: Fifty-five previously untreated, unresectable pancreas cancer patients received a single fraction of 25-Gy SBRT sequentially with gemcitabine-based chemotherapy. On the preradiation PET-CT, the tumor was contoured and the maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) and metabolic tumor burden (MTB) were calculated using an in-house software application. High-SUVmax and low-SUVmax subgroups were created by categorizing patients above or below the median SUVmax. The analysis was repeated to form high-MTB and low-MTB subgroups as well as clinicallymore » relevant subgroups with SUVmax values of <5, 5-10, or >10. Multivariate analysis analyzing SUVmax, MTB, age, chemotherapy cycles, and pretreatment carbohydrate antigen (CA)19-9 was performed. Results: For the entire population, median survival was 12.7 months. Median survival was 9.8 vs.15.3 months for the high- and low- SUVmax subgroups (p <0.01). Similarly, median survival was 10.1 vs. 18.0 months for the high MTB and low MTB subgroups (p <0.01). When clinical SUVmax cutoffs were used, median survival was 6.4 months in those with SUVmax >10, 9.5 months with SUVmax 5.0-10.0, and 17.7 months in those with SUVmax <5 (p <0.01). On multivariate analysis, clinical SUVmax was an independent predictor for overall survival (p = 0.03) and progression-free survival (p = 0.03). Conclusion: PET scan parameters can predict for length of survival in locally advanced pancreas cancer patients.« less

The application of peritoneal drainage in the surgical treatment for neonates with necrotizing enterocolitis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jixue; Fu, Xin

2017-08-01

Object To explore the feasibility and effects of peritoneal drainage in the surgical treatment for the neonates with necrotizing enterocolitis. Methods: A retrospective analysis was conduct on 32 cases of newborns with extensive and multiple intestinal necrosis found intraoperatively, all of which could not accept first-stage resected, treated by traditional operation or by peritoneal drainage between January, 2013 to January 2017. Duration of operation, amount of bleeding, and the survival rate after operation were compared between the two groups, which were divided by surgical methods. Results: No significant difference was observed in age, and gender (P>0.05) between the two groups. However, duration of operation was significantly shorter, the amount of bleeding was significantly lessen, the survival rate was significantly higher in the patients by peritoneal drainage than the patients by traditional operation (P<0.05). Conclusion: To compare traditional operation or peritoneal drainage in neonates, a retrospective analysis conducted by us showed the feasibility and effects of peritoneal drainage in neonates, and a significant advantage in duration of operation and the survival rate after operation.

A capture-recapture survival analysis model for radio-tagged animals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollock, K.H.; Bunck, C.M.; Winterstein, S.R.; Chen, C.-L.; North, P.M.; Nichols, J.D.

1995-01-01

In recent years, survival analysis of radio-tagged animals has developed using methods based on the Kaplan-Meier method used in medical and engineering applications (Pollock et al., 1989a,b). An important assumption of this approach is that all tagged animals with a functioning radio can be relocated at each sampling time with probability 1. This assumption may not always be reasonable in practice. In this paper, we show how a general capture-recapture model can be derived which allows for some probability (less than one) for animals to be relocated. This model is not simply a Jolly-Seber model because it is possible to relocate both dead and live animals, unlike when traditional tagging is used. The model can also be viewed as a generalization of the Kaplan-Meier procedure, thus linking the Jolly-Seber and Kaplan-Meier approaches to survival estimation. We present maximum likelihood estimators and discuss testing between submodels. We also discuss model assumptions and their validity in practice. An example is presented based on canvasback data collected by G. M. Haramis of Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Laurel, Maryland, USA.

Prognosis for Survival of Young Women with Breast Cancer by Quantitative p53 Immunohistochemistry

PubMed Central

Axelrod, David E.; Shah, Kinsuk; Yang, Qifeng; Haffty, Bruce G.

2015-01-01

p53 protein detected immunohistochemically has not been accepted as a biomarker for breast cancer patients because of disparate reports of the relationship between the amount of p53 protein detected and patient survival. The purpose of this study was to determine experimental conditions and methods of data analysis for which p53 stain intensity could be prognostic for survival of young breast cancer patients. A tissue microarray of specimens from 93 patients was stained with anti-p53 antibody, and stain intensity measured with a computer-aided image analysis system. A cut-point at one standard deviation below the mean of the distribution of p53 stain intensity separated patients into two groups with significantly different survival. These results were confirmed by Quantitative Nuclear Grade determined by DNA-specific Feulgen staining. P53 provided information beyond ER and PR status. Therefore, under the conditions reported here, p53 protein can be an effective prognostic factor for young breast cancer patients. PMID:26322145

Piggyback technique in adult orthotopic liver transplantation: an analysis of 1067 liver transplants at a single center

PubMed Central

Nakamura, Noboru; Vaidya, Anil; Levi, David M.; Kato, Tomoaki; Nery, Jose R.; Madariaga, Juan R.; Molina, Enrique; Ruiz, Phillip; Gyamfi, Anthony; Tzakis, Andreas G.

2006-01-01

Background. Orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) in adult patients has traditionally been performed using conventional caval reconstruction technique (CV) with veno-venous bypass. Recently, the piggyback technique (PB) without veno-venous bypass has begun to be widely used. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of routine use of PB on OLTs in adult patients. Patients and methods. A retrospective analysis was undertaken of 1067 orthotopic cadaveric whole liver transplantations in adult patients treated between June 1994 and July 2001. PB was used as the routine procedure. Patient demographics, factors including cold ischemia time (CIT), warm ischemia time (WIT), operative time, transfusions, blood loss, and postoperative results were assessed. The effects of clinical factors on graft survival were assessed by univariate and multivariate analyses.In all, 918 transplantations (86%) were performed with PB. Blood transfusion, WIT, and usage of veno-venous bypass were less with PB. Seventy-five (8.3%) cases with PB had refractory ascites following OLT (p=NS). Five venous outflow stenosis cases (0.54%) with PB were noted (p=NS). The liver and renal function during the postoperative periods was similar. Overall 1-, 3-, and 5-year patient survival rates were 85%, 78%, and 72% with PB. Univariate analysis showed that cava reconstruction method, CIT, WIT, amount of transfusion, length of hospital stay, donor age, and tumor presence were significant factors influencing graft survival. Multivariate analysis further reinforced the fact that CIT, donor age, amount of transfusion, and hospital stay were prognostic factors for graft survival. Conclusions. PB can be performed safely in the majority of adult OLTs. Results of OLT with PB are as same as for CV. Liver function, renal function, morbidity, mortality, and patient and graft survival are similar to CV. However, amount of transfusion, WIT, and use of veno-venous bypass are less with PB. PMID:18333273

Geographic disparities in colorectal cancer survival

PubMed Central

Henry, Kevin A; Niu, Xiaoling; Boscoe, Francis P

2009-01-01

Background Examining geographic variation in cancer patient survival can help identify important prognostic factors that are linked by geography and generate hypotheses about the underlying causes of survival disparities. In this study, we apply a recently developed spatial scan statistic method, designed for time-to-event data, to determine whether colorectal cancer (CRC) patient survival varies by place of residence after adjusting survival times for several prognostic factors. Methods Using data from a population-based, statewide cancer registry, we examined a cohort of 25,040 men and women from New Jersey who were newly diagnosed with local or regional stage colorectal cancer from 1996 through 2003 and followed to the end of 2006. Survival times were adjusted for significant prognostic factors (sex, age, stage at diagnosis, race/ethnicity and census tract socioeconomic deprivation) and evaluated using a spatial scan statistic to identify places where CRC survival was significantly longer or shorter than the statewide experience. Results Age, sex and stage adjusted survival times revealed several areas in the northern part of the state where CRC survival was significantly different than expected. The shortest and longest survival areas had an adjusted 5-year survival rate of 73.1% (95% CI 71.5, 74.9) and 88.3% (95% CI 85.4, 91.3) respectively, compared with the state average of 80.0% (95% CI 79.4, 80.5). Analysis of survival times adjusted for age, sex and stage as well as race/ethnicity and area socioeconomic deprivation attenuated the risk of death from CRC in several areas, but survival disparities persisted. Conclusion The results suggest that in areas where additional adjustments for race/ethnicity and area socioeconomic deprivation changed the geographic survival patterns and reduced the risk of death from CRC, the adjustment factors may be contributing causes of the disparities. Further studies should focus on specific and modifiable individual and neighborhood factors in the high risk areas that may affect a person's chance of surviving cancer. PMID:19627576

Steroid Avoidance in Pediatric Heart Transplantation Results in Excellent Graft Survival

PubMed Central

Auerbach, Scott R.; Gralla, Jane; Campbell, David N.; Miyamoto, Shelley D.; Pietra, Biagio A.

2018-01-01

Background Maintenance steroid (MS) use in pediatric heart transplantation (HT) varies across centers. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of steroid-free maintenance immunosuppression (SF) on graft outcomes in pediatric HT. Methods Patients younger than 18 years in the United States undergoing a first HT during 1990 to 2010 were analyzed for conditional 30-day graft loss (death or repeat HT) and death based on MS use by multivariable analysis. A propensity score was then given to each patient using a logistic model, and propensity matching was performed using pre-HT risk factors, induction therapy, and nonsteroid maintenance immunosuppression. Kaplan-Meier graft and patient survival probabilities by MS use were then calculated. Results Of 4894 patients, 3962 (81%) were taking MS and 932 (19%) SF. Of the 4530 alive at 30 days after HT, 3694 (82%) and 836 (18%) were in the MS and SF groups, respectively. Unmatched multivariable analysis showed no difference in 30-day conditional graft survival between MS and SF groups (hazard ratio=1.08, 95% confidence interval=0.93-1.24; P=0.33). Propensity matching resulted in 462 patients in each MS and SF group. Propensity-matched Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed no difference in graft or patient survival between groups (P=0.3 and P=0.16, respectively). Conclusions We found no difference in graft survival between SF patients and those taking MS. An SF regimen in pediatric HT avoids potential complications of steroid use without compromising graft survival, even after accounting for pre-HT risk factors. PMID:24389908

Prognostic relevance of lymph node ratio and total lymph node count for small bowel adenocarcinoma.

PubMed

Tran, Thuy B; Qadan, Motaz; Dua, Monica M; Norton, Jeffrey A; Poultsides, George A; Visser, Brendan C

2015-08-01

Nodal metastasis is a known prognostic factor for small bowel adenocarcinoma. The goals of this study were to evaluate the number of lymph nodes (LNs) that should be retrieved and the impact of lymph node ratio (LNR) on survival. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results was queried to identify patients with small bowel adenocarcinoma who underwent resection from 1988 to 2010. Survival was calculated with the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate analysis identified predictors of survival. A total of 2,772 patients underwent resection with at least one node retrieved, and this sample included equal numbers of duodenal (n = 1,387) and jejunoileal (n = 1,386) adenocarcinomas. There were 1,371 patients with no nodal metastasis (N0, 49.4%), 928 N1 (33.5%), and 474 N2 (17.1%). The median numbers of LNs examined for duodenal and jejunoileal cancers were 9 and 8, respectively. Cut-point analysis demonstrated that harvesting at least 9 for jejunoileal and 5 LN for duodenal cancers resulted in the greatest survival difference. Increasing LNR at both sites was associated with decreased overall median survival (LNR = 0, 71 months; LNR 0-0.02, 35 months; LNR 0.21-0.4, 25 months; and LNR >0.4, 16 months; P < .001). Multivariate analysis confirmed number of LNs examined, T-stage, LN positivity, and LNR were independent predictors of survival. LNR has a profound impact on survival in patients with small bowel adenocarcinoma. To achieve adequate staging, we recommend retrieving a minimum of 5 LN for duodenal and 9 LN for jejunoileal adenocarcinomas. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Diabetes mellitus may affect the long-term survival of hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma patients after liver transplantation.

PubMed

Zhang, Qing; Deng, Yong-Lin; Liu, Chang; Huang, Li-Hong; Shang, Lei; Chen, Xin-Guo; Wang, Le-Tian; Du, Jin-Zan; Wang, Ying; Wang, Pei-Xiao; Zhang, Hui; Shen, Zhong-Yang

2016-11-21

To determine whether diabetes mellitus (DM) affects prognosis/recurrence after liver transplantation (LT) for hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A retrospective study was conducted between January 2000 and August 2013 on 1631 patients with HBV-related HCC who underwent LT with antiviral prophylaxis. Patient data were obtained from the China Liver Transplant Registry (https://www.cltr.org/). To compare the outcomes and tumor recurrence in the HBV-related HCC patients with or without DM, statistical analyses were conducted using χ 2 tests, Mann-Whitney tests, the Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank tests and multivariate step-wise Cox regression analysis. Univariate analysis of 1631 patients who underwent LT found overall 1-, 3- and 5-year survival rates of 79%, 73% and 71% respectively in the DM patients, and 84%, 78% and 76% in the non-DM patients respectively. Overall survival rate differences after LT between the two groups were significant ( P = 0.041), but recurrence-free survival rates were not ( P = 0.096). By stratified analysis, the overall survival rates in DM patients for age > 50 years ( P = 0.002), the presence of vascular invasion ( P = 0.096), tumors ≤ 3 cm ( P = 0.047), two to three tumor nodules ( P = 0.007), Child-Pugh grade B ( P = 0.018), and pre-LT alanine aminotransferase levels between 40 and 80 IU/L ( P = 0.017) were significantly lower than in non-DM patients. Additionally, serum α-fetoprotein level > 2000 ng/mL ( P = 0.052) was associated with a significant survival difference trend between DM and non-DM patients. Multivariate analysis showed that the presence of DM ( P < 0.001, HR = 1.591; 95%CI: 1.239-2.041) was an independent predictor associated with poor survival after LT. HBV-related HCC patients with DM have decreased long-term overall survival and poor LT outcomes. Prevention strategies for HCC patients with DM are recommended.

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio as an independent predictor for survival in patients with localized clear cell renal cell carcinoma after radiofrequency ablation: a propensity score matching analysis.

PubMed

Chang, Xiaofeng; Zhang, Fan; Liu, Tieshi; Wang, Wei; Guo, Hongqian

2017-06-01

To investigate the role of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio as a prognostic indicator in patients with localized clear cell renal cell carcinoma treated with radiofrequency ablation. We retrospectively analyzed data from patients with renal cell carcinoma who underwent radiofrequency ablation from 2006 to 2013. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to generate the survival curves according to different categories of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. Relationships between preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio or the change of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and survival were evaluated with multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. A propensity score matching analysis was carried out to avoid confounding bias. A total of 185 patients were included in present study. When stratified by preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio cutoff value of 2.79, 5-year recurrence-free survival, 5-year disease-free survival, and 5-year overall survival rates of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio <2.79 versus ≥2.79 were 100, 98.5, and 99.2% versus 80.5, 72.6, and 90.6%, respectively (P < 0.001, P < 0.001, P = 0.003). In terms of propensity score matching analysis, 5-year recurrence-free survival, 5-year disease-free survival, and 5-year overall survival rates of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio <2.79 versus ≥2.79 were 100, 97.9, and 100% versus 82.3, 73.4, and 89.4%, respectively (P = 0.003, P = 0.001, P = 0.022). When combining preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio with the change of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, patients with both preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥2.79 and the change of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥0.40 had the worst disease-free survival. Results of multivariable analysis showed that preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and the change of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio correlated with cancer relapse remarkably. High preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and elevated postoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio are associated with significant increase in risk of local recurrence as well as distant metastasis. The combination of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio with the other prognostic indicators can be applied in the evaluation of relapse risk in patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma after radiofrequency ablation.

Survival analysis and classification methods for forest fire size

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Factors affecting wildland-fire size distribution include weather, fuels, and fire suppression activities. We present a novel application of survival analysis to quantify the effects of these factors on a sample of sizes of lightning-caused fires from Alberta, Canada. Two events were observed for each fire: the size at initial assessment (by the first fire fighters to arrive at the scene) and the size at “being held” (a state when no further increase in size is expected). We developed a statistical classifier to try to predict cases where there will be a growth in fire size (i.e., the size at “being held” exceeds the size at initial assessment). Logistic regression was preferred over two alternative classifiers, with covariates consistent with similar past analyses. We conducted survival analysis on the group of fires exhibiting a size increase. A screening process selected three covariates: an index of fire weather at the day the fire started, the fuel type burning at initial assessment, and a factor for the type and capabilities of the method of initial attack. The Cox proportional hazards model performed better than three accelerated failure time alternatives. Both fire weather and fuel type were highly significant, with effects consistent with known fire behaviour. The effects of initial attack method were not statistically significant, but did suggest a reverse causality that could arise if fire management agencies were to dispatch resources based on a-priori assessment of fire growth potentials. We discuss how a more sophisticated analysis of larger data sets could produce unbiased estimates of fire suppression effect under such circumstances. PMID:29320497

Vascular Disease, ESRD, and Death: Interpreting Competing Risk Analyses

PubMed Central

Coresh, Josef; Segev, Dorry L.; Kucirka, Lauren M.; Tighiouart, Hocine; Sarnak, Mark J.

2012-01-01

Summary Background and objectives Vascular disease, a common condition in CKD, is a risk factor for mortality and ESRD. Optimal patient care requires accurate estimation and ordering of these competing risks. Design, setting, participants, & measurements This is a prospective cohort study of screened (n=885) and randomized participants (n=837) in the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study (original study enrollment, 1989–1992), evaluating the association of vascular disease with ESRD and pre-ESRD mortality using standard survival analysis and competing risk regression. Results The method of analysis resulted in markedly different estimates. Cumulative incidence by standard analysis (censoring at the competing event) implied that, with vascular disease, the 15-year incidence was 66% and 51% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. A more accurate representation of absolute risk was estimated with competing risk regression: 15-year incidence was 54% and 29% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. For the association of vascular disease with pre-ESRD death, estimates of relative risk by the two methods were similar (standard survival analysis adjusted hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.20–2.20; competing risk regression adjusted subhazard ratio, 1.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.15–2.14). In contrast, the hazard and subhazard ratios differed substantially for other associations, such as GFR and pre-ESRD mortality. Conclusions When competing events exist, absolute risk is better estimated using competing risk regression, but etiologic associations by this method must be carefully interpreted. The presence of vascular disease in CKD decreases the likelihood of survival to ESRD, independent of age and other risk factors. PMID:22859747

Vascular disease, ESRD, and death: interpreting competing risk analyses.

PubMed

Grams, Morgan E; Coresh, Josef; Segev, Dorry L; Kucirka, Lauren M; Tighiouart, Hocine; Sarnak, Mark J

2012-10-01

Vascular disease, a common condition in CKD, is a risk factor for mortality and ESRD. Optimal patient care requires accurate estimation and ordering of these competing risks. This is a prospective cohort study of screened (n=885) and randomized participants (n=837) in the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study (original study enrollment, 1989-1992), evaluating the association of vascular disease with ESRD and pre-ESRD mortality using standard survival analysis and competing risk regression. The method of analysis resulted in markedly different estimates. Cumulative incidence by standard analysis (censoring at the competing event) implied that, with vascular disease, the 15-year incidence was 66% and 51% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. A more accurate representation of absolute risk was estimated with competing risk regression: 15-year incidence was 54% and 29% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. For the association of vascular disease with pre-ESRD death, estimates of relative risk by the two methods were similar (standard survival analysis adjusted hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-2.20; competing risk regression adjusted subhazard ratio, 1.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-2.14). In contrast, the hazard and subhazard ratios differed substantially for other associations, such as GFR and pre-ESRD mortality. When competing events exist, absolute risk is better estimated using competing risk regression, but etiologic associations by this method must be carefully interpreted. The presence of vascular disease in CKD decreases the likelihood of survival to ESRD, independent of age and other risk factors.

Survival analysis and classification methods for forest fire size.

PubMed

Tremblay, Pier-Olivier; Duchesne, Thierry; Cumming, Steven G

2018-01-01

Factors affecting wildland-fire size distribution include weather, fuels, and fire suppression activities. We present a novel application of survival analysis to quantify the effects of these factors on a sample of sizes of lightning-caused fires from Alberta, Canada. Two events were observed for each fire: the size at initial assessment (by the first fire fighters to arrive at the scene) and the size at "being held" (a state when no further increase in size is expected). We developed a statistical classifier to try to predict cases where there will be a growth in fire size (i.e., the size at "being held" exceeds the size at initial assessment). Logistic regression was preferred over two alternative classifiers, with covariates consistent with similar past analyses. We conducted survival analysis on the group of fires exhibiting a size increase. A screening process selected three covariates: an index of fire weather at the day the fire started, the fuel type burning at initial assessment, and a factor for the type and capabilities of the method of initial attack. The Cox proportional hazards model performed better than three accelerated failure time alternatives. Both fire weather and fuel type were highly significant, with effects consistent with known fire behaviour. The effects of initial attack method were not statistically significant, but did suggest a reverse causality that could arise if fire management agencies were to dispatch resources based on a-priori assessment of fire growth potentials. We discuss how a more sophisticated analysis of larger data sets could produce unbiased estimates of fire suppression effect under such circumstances.

System-level analysis of genes and functions affecting survival during nutrient starvation in Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

PubMed

Gresham, David; Boer, Viktor M; Caudy, Amy; Ziv, Naomi; Brandt, Nathan J; Storey, John D; Botstein, David

2011-01-01

An essential property of all cells is the ability to exit from active cell division and persist in a quiescent state. For single-celled microbes this primarily occurs in response to nutrient deprivation. We studied the genetic requirements for survival of Saccharomyces cerevisiae when starved for either of two nutrients: phosphate or leucine. We measured the survival of nearly all nonessential haploid null yeast mutants in mixed populations using a quantitative sequencing method that estimates the abundance of each mutant on the basis of frequency of unique molecular barcodes. Starvation for phosphate results in a population half-life of 337 hr whereas starvation for leucine results in a half-life of 27.7 hr. To measure survival of individual mutants in each population we developed a statistical framework that accounts for the multiple sources of experimental variation. From the identities of the genes in which mutations strongly affect survival, we identify genetic evidence for several cellular processes affecting survival during nutrient starvation, including autophagy, chromatin remodeling, mRNA processing, and cytoskeleton function. In addition, we found evidence that mitochondrial and peroxisome function is required for survival. Our experimental and analytical methods represent an efficient and quantitative approach to characterizing genetic functions and networks with unprecedented resolution and identified genotype-by-environment interactions that have important implications for interpretation of studies of aging and quiescence in yeast.

Clinical lung transplantation from uncontrolled non-heart-beating donors revisited.

PubMed

Gomez-de-Antonio, David; Campo-Cañaveral, Jose Luis; Crowley, Silvana; Valdivia, Daniel; Cordoba, Mar; Moradiellos, Javier; Naranjo, Jose Manual; Ussetti, Piedad; Varela, Andrés

2012-04-01

The aim of our study is to review and update the long-term results from our previously published series of lung transplantation in uncontrolled non-heart-beating donors (NHBDs). A prospective collection of data was undertaken from all lung transplants performed among uncontrolled NHBDs between 2002 and December 2009. The statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software and survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Twenty-nine lung transplants were performed. Mean total ischemic times for the first and second lung were 575 minutes (SD 115.6) and 701 minutes (SD 111.3), respectively. Primary graft dysfunction (PGD) G1, G2 and G3 occurred in 5 cases (17%), 5 cases (17%) and 11 cases (38%), respectively. Overall hospital mortality rate was 17% (5 patients). Statistical analysis revealed a statistically significant association of mortality with ischemic times and with PGD. In terms of overall survival, 3-month, 1-year, 2-year and 5-year survival rates were 78%, 68%, 57% and 51%, respectively, and the conditional survival rates in those who survived the first 3 months were 86%, 72% and 65%, respectively. The cumulative incidence of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) was 11%, 35% and 45% at 1, 3 and 5 years, respectively. Lung transplantation from uncontrolled non-heart-beating donors shows acceptable results for both mid- and long-term survival and BOS; however, the higher rates of PGD and its impact on early mortality must make us more demanding with respect to the acceptance criteria and methods of evaluation used with these donors. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Conditional Survival in Pediatric Malignancies: Analysis of data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program

PubMed Central

Mertens, Ann C; Yong, Jian; Dietz, Andrew; Kreiter, Erin; Yasui, Yutaka; Bleyer, Archie; Armstrong, Gregory T; Robison, Leslie L; Wasilewski-Masker, Karen

2015-01-01

Background Long-term survivors of pediatric cancer are at risk for life-threatening late effects of their cancer. Previous studies have shown excesses in long-term mortality within high-risk groups defined by demographic and treatment characteristics. Methods To investigate conditional survival in a pediatric cancer population, we performed an analysis of conditional survival in the original Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) cohort and the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database registry. The overall probability of death for patients in 5 years and 10 years after they survived 5, 10, 15, and 20 years since cancer diagnosis, and cause-specific death in 10 years for 5-year survivors were estimated using the cumulative incidence method. Results Among CCSS and SEER patients who were alive 5 years post cancer diagnosis, within each diagnosis group at least 92% are alive in the subsequent 5 years, except leukemia patients of whom only 88% of 5-year survivors remain alive in the subsequent 5 years. The probability of all-cause mortality in the next 10 years on patients who survived at least 5 years after diagnosis, was 8.8% in CCSS and 10.6% in SEER, approximately three quarter of which were due to neoplasms as causes of death. Conclusion The risk of death of pediatric cancer survivors in 10 years can vary between diagnosis groups by at most 12% even up to 20 years post diagnosis. This information is clinically important in counseling patients on their conditional survival, particularly when survivors are seen in long-term follow-up. PMID:25557134

Hepatic iron overload in the portal tract predicts poor survival in hepatocellular carcinoma after curative resection.

PubMed

Chung, Jung Wha; Shin, Eun; Kim, Haeryoung; Han, Ho-Seong; Cho, Jai Young; Choi, Young Rok; Hong, Sukho; Jang, Eun Sun; Kim, Jin-Wook; Jeong, Sook-Hyang

2018-05-01

Hepatic iron overload is associated with liver injury and hepatocarcinogenesis; however, it has not been evaluated in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Asia. The aim of this study was to clarify the degree and distribution of intrahepatic iron deposition, and their effects on the survival of HCC patients. Intrahepatic iron deposition was examined using non-tumorous liver tissues from 204 HCC patients after curative resection, and they were scored by 2 semi-quantitative methods: simplified Scheuer's and modified Deugnier's methods. For the Scheuer's method, iron deposition in hepatocytes and Kupffer cells was separately evaluated, while for the modified Deugnier's method, hepatocyte iron score (HIS), sinusoidal iron score (SIS) and portal iron score (PIS) were systematically evaluated, and the corrected total iron score (cTIS) was calculated by multiplying the sum (TIS) of the HIS, SIS, and PIS by the coefficient. The overall prevalence of hepatic iron was 40.7% with the simplified Scheuer's method and 45.1% with the modified Deugnier's method with a mean cTIS score of 2.46. During a median follow-up of 67 months, the cTIS was not associated with overall survival. However, a positive PIS was significantly associated with a lower 5-year overall survival rate (50.0%) compared with a negative PIS (73.7%, P = .006). In the multivariate analysis, a positive PIS was an independent factor for overall mortality (hazard ratio, 2.310; 95% confidence interval, 1.181-4.517). Intrahepatic iron deposition was common, and iron overload in the portal tract indicated poor survival in curatively resected HCC patients. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cancer survival among children of Turkish descent in Germany 1980–2005: a registry-based analysis

PubMed Central

Spix, Claudia; Spallek, Jacob; Kaatsch, Peter; Razum, Oliver; Zeeb, Hajo

2008-01-01

Background Little is known about the effect of migrant status on childhood cancer survival. We studied cancer survival among children of Turkish descent in the German Cancer Childhood Registry, one of the largest childhood cancer registries worldwide. Methods We identified children of Turkish descent among cancer cases using a name-based approach. We compared 5-year survival probabilities of Turkish and other children in three time periods of diagnosis (1980–87, 1988–95, 1996–2005) using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank tests. Results The 5-year survival probability for all cancers among 1774 cases of Turkish descent (4.76% of all 37.259 cases) was 76.9% compared to 77.6% in the comparison group (all other cases; p = 0.15). We found no age- or sex-specific survival differences (p-values between p = 0.18 and p = 0.90). For the period 1980–87, the 5-year survival probability among Turkish children with lymphoid leukaemia was significantly lower (62% versus 75.8%; p < 0.0001), this remains unexplained. For more recently diagnosed leukaemias, we saw no survival differences for Turkish and non-Turkish children. Conclusion Our results suggest that nowadays Turkish migrant status has no bearing on the outcome of childhood cancer therapies in Germany. The inclusion of currently more than 95% of all childhood cancer cases in standardised treatment protocols is likely to contribute to this finding. PMID:19040749

Dual oxidase 1: A predictive tool for the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma patients.

PubMed

Chen, Shengsen; Ling, Qingxia; Yu, Kangkang; Huang, Chong; Li, Ning; Zheng, Jianming; Bao, Suxia; Cheng, Qi; Zhu, Mengqi; Chen, Mingquan

2016-06-01

Dual oxidase 1 (DUOX1), which is the main source of reactive oxygen species (ROS) production in the airway, can be silenced in human lung cancer and hepatocellular carcinomas. However, the prognostic value of DUOX1 expression in hepatocellular carcinoma patients is still unclear. We investigated the prognostic value of DUOX1 expression in liver cancer patients. DUOX1 mRNA expression was determined in tumor tissues and non-tumor tissues by real‑time PCR. For evaluation of the prognostic value of DUOX1 expression, Kaplan-Meier method and Cox's proportional hazards model (univariate analysis and multivariate analysis) were employed. A simple risk score was devised by using significant variables obtained from the Cox's regression analysis to further predict the HCC patient prognosis. We observed a reduced DUOX1 mRNA level in the cancer tissues in comparison to the non‑cancer tissues. More importantly, Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that patients with high DUOX1 expression had longer disease-free survival and overall survival compared with those with low expression of DUOX1. Cox's regression analysis indicated that DUOX1 expression, age, and intrahepatic metastasis may be significant prognostic factors for disease-free survival and overall survival. Finally, we found that patients with total scores of >2 and >1 were more likely to relapse and succumb to the disease than patients whose total scores were ≤2 and ≤1. In conclusion, DUOX1 expression in liver tumors is a potential prognostic tool for patients. The risk scoring system is useful for predicting the survival of liver cancer patients after tumor resection.

Noninvasive Computed Tomography–based Risk Stratification of Lung Adenocarcinomas in the National Lung Screening Trial

PubMed Central

Maldonado, Fabien; Duan, Fenghai; Raghunath, Sushravya M.; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Karwoski, Ronald A.; Garg, Kavita; Greco, Erin; Nath, Hrudaya; Robb, Richard A.; Bartholmai, Brian J.

2015-01-01

Rationale: Screening for lung cancer using low-dose computed tomography (CT) reduces lung cancer mortality. However, in addition to a high rate of benign nodules, lung cancer screening detects a large number of indolent cancers that generally belong to the adenocarcinoma spectrum. Individualized management of screen-detected adenocarcinomas would be facilitated by noninvasive risk stratification. Objectives: To validate that Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY), a novel image analysis software, successfully risk stratifies screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas based on clinical disease outcomes. Methods: We identified retrospective 294 eligible patients diagnosed with lung adenocarcinoma spectrum lesions in the low-dose CT arm of the National Lung Screening Trial. The last low-dose CT scan before the diagnosis of lung adenocarcinoma was analyzed using CANARY blinded to clinical data. Based on their parametric CANARY signatures, all the lung adenocarcinoma nodules were risk stratified into three groups. CANARY risk groups were compared using survival analysis for progression-free survival. Measurements and Main Results: A total of 294 patients were included in the analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis of all the 294 adenocarcinoma nodules stratified into the Good, Intermediate, and Poor CANARY risk groups yielded distinct progression-free survival curves (P < 0.0001). This observation was confirmed in the unadjusted and adjusted (age, sex, race, and smoking status) progression-free survival analysis of all stage I cases. Conclusions: CANARY allows the noninvasive risk stratification of lung adenocarcinomas into three groups with distinct post-treatment progression-free survival. Our results suggest that CANARY could ultimately facilitate individualized management of incidentally or screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas. PMID:26052977

Comparison of Cox's Regression Model and Parametric Models in Evaluating the Prognostic Factors for Survival after Liver Transplantation in Shiraz during 2000-2012.

PubMed

Adelian, R; Jamali, J; Zare, N; Ayatollahi, S M T; Pooladfar, G R; Roustaei, N

2015-01-01

Identification of the prognostic factors for survival in patients with liver transplantation is challengeable. Various methods of survival analysis have provided different, sometimes contradictory, results from the same data. To compare Cox's regression model with parametric models for determining the independent factors for predicting adults' and pediatrics' survival after liver transplantation. This study was conducted on 183 pediatric patients and 346 adults underwent liver transplantation in Namazi Hospital, Shiraz, southern Iran. The study population included all patients undergoing liver transplantation from 2000 to 2012. The prognostic factors sex, age, Child class, initial diagnosis of the liver disease, PELD/MELD score, and pre-operative laboratory markers were selected for survival analysis. Among 529 patients, 346 (64.5%) were adult and 183 (34.6%) were pediatric cases. Overall, the lognormal distribution was the best-fitting model for adult and pediatric patients. Age in adults (HR=1.16, p<0.05) and weight (HR=2.68, p<0.01) and Child class B (HR=2.12, p<0.05) in pediatric patients were the most important factors for prediction of survival after liver transplantation. Adult patients younger than the mean age and pediatric patients weighing above the mean and Child class A (compared to those with classes B or C) had better survival. Parametric regression model is a good alternative for the Cox's regression model.

Association of Time between Surgery and Adjuvant Therapy with Survival in Oral Cavity Cancer.

PubMed

Chen, Michelle M; Harris, Jeremy P; Orosco, Ryan K; Sirjani, Davud; Hara, Wendy; Divi, Vasu

2018-06-01

Objective The National Cancer Center Network recommends starting radiation therapy within 6 weeks after surgery for oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC), but there is limited evidence of the importance of the total time from surgery to completion of radiation therapy (package time). We set out to determine if there was an association between package time and survival in OCSCC and to evaluate the impact of treatment location on outcomes. Study Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Tertiary academic medical center. Subjects and Methods We reviewed the records of patients with OCSCC who completed postoperative radiation therapy at an academic medical center from 2008 to 2016. The primary endpoints were overall survival and recurrence-free survival. Statistical analysis included χ 2 tests and Cox proportional hazards regressions. Results We identified 132 patients with an average package time of 12.6 weeks. On multivariate analysis, package time >11 weeks was independently associated with decreased overall survival (hazard ratio, 6.68; 95% CI, 1.42-31.44) and recurrence-free survival (hazard ratio, 2.94; 95% CI, 1.20-7.18). Patients who received radiation therapy at outside facilities were more likely to have treatment delays (90.2% vs 62.9%, P = .001). Conclusions Prolonged package times are associated with decreased overall and recurrence-free survival among patients with OCSCC. Patients who received radiation therapy at outside facilities are more likely to have prolonged package times.

Four decades of the kidney transplantation program at the Institute Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán in Mexico City.

PubMed

Morales-Buenrostro, Luis E; Marino-Vázquez, Lluvia A; Alberú, Josefina

2009-01-01

This is a retrospective study that includes four decades of kidney transplant program at our Institute, with a total of 923 kidney transplants in 872 recipients. In this report, the effect of variables in recipient, donor, and transplant on long-term graft survival was analyzed using the Kaplan Meier method with log-rank test for survival comparisons. Global graft survival at our center-analyzed by censoring for death-with-functioning-graft-for 1, 5 and 10 years was 93%, 83% and 74%, respectively, with median survival of 24.5 years. When analyzed for all-cause graft loss, 1, 5 and 10 year survival was 90%, 76% and 61%, with 12.8-year median survival. Variables associated with lower graft survival censored for death-with-functioning-graft were transplantation in an earlier decade, less histocompatibility, younger kidney transplant recipients, no induction therapy, and double drug initial immunosuppression. After Cox's regression multivariate analysis, the risk factors that remained associated with worse survival were younger recipient, earlier transplant decade, and deceased donor.

[Survival in patients with liver cirrhosis at the Durango, IMSS Regional General Hospital].

PubMed

Rodríguez-Hernández, Heriberto; Jacobo-Karam, Janett S; Castañón-Santillán, María del Carmen; Arámbula-Chávez, Mayela; Martínez-Aguilar, Gerardo

2002-01-01

In Mexico, hepatic cirrhosis mortality exhibits important regional differences. To analyze global survival of cirrhotic patients, according to etiology and functional status. Between March 1990 to August 1998, newly diagnosed patients with hepatic cirrhosis were included in a follow-up study. Subjects were analyzed monthly. Information on clinical evolution, complications, and dates of events (death) and complications were registered. Survival was estimated using Kaplan-Meier method. Ninety nine subjects were included in the survival analysis, 66 with alcoholic and 33 with viral cirrhosis (HCV and HBV in 24 and nine patients, respectively). Ninety seven percent of patients were decompensated at diagnosis, and 81% had ascites. Probabilities for survival in the entire series were 69.7, 37.6 and 23.6% at 24, 48, and 60 months, respectively. There were no significant differences in the survival of patients grouped according to etiology. When survival was analyzed by Child-Pugh score, it was slightly higher in the alcoholic cirrhosis group. In this study survival probability of patients with viral cirrhosis was lower than in patients with alcohol cirrhosis.

Challenges in the estimation of Net SURvival: The CENSUR working survival group.

PubMed

Giorgi, R

2016-10-01

Net survival, the survival probability that would be observed, in a hypothetical world, where the cancer of interest would be the only possible cause of death, is a key indicator in population-based cancer studies. Accounting for mortality due to other causes, it allows cross-country comparisons or trends analysis and provides a useful indicator for public health decision-making. The objective of this study was to show how the creation and formalization of a network comprising established research teams, which already had substantial and complementary experience in both cancer survival analysis and methodological development, make it possible to meet challenges and thus provide more adequate tools, to improve the quality and the comparability of cancer survival data, and to promote methodological transfers in areas of emerging interest. The Challenges in the Estimation of Net SURvival (CENSUR) working survival group is composed of international researchers highly skilled in biostatistics, methodology, and epidemiology, from different research organizations in France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Slovenia, and Canada, and involved in French (FRANCIM) and European (EUROCARE) cancer registry networks. The expected advantages are an interdisciplinary, international, synergistic network capable of addressing problems in public health, for decision-makers at different levels; tools for those in charge of net survival analyses; a common methodology that makes unbiased cross-national comparisons of cancer survival feasible; transfer of methods for net survival estimations to other specific applications (clinical research, occupational epidemiology); and dissemination of results during an international training course. The formalization of the international CENSUR working survival group was motivated by a need felt by scientists conducting population-based cancer research to discuss, develop, and monitor implementation of a common methodology to analyze net survival in order to provide useful information for cancer control and cancer policy. A "team science" approach is necessary to address new challenges concerning the estimation of net survival. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Serum albumin predicts survival in patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma

PubMed Central

Waghray, Abhijeet; Sobotka, Anastasia; Marrero, Carlos Romero; Estfan, Bassam; Aucejo, Federico

2017-01-01

Background and aims: Hilar cholangiocarcinoma is a devastating malignancy with incidence varying by geography and other risk factors. Rapid progression of disease and delays in diagnosis restrict the number of patients eligible for curative therapy. The objective of this study was to determine prognostic factors of overall survival in all patients presenting with hilar cholangiocarcinoma. Methods: All adult patients with histologically confirmed hilar cholangiocarcinoma from 2003 to 2013 were evaluated for predictors of survival using demographic factors, laboratory data, symptoms and radiological characteristics at presentation. Results: A total of 116 patients were identified to have pathological diagnosis of hilar cholangiocarcinoma and were included in the analysis. Patients with a serum albumin level >3.0 g/dL (P < 0.01), cancer antigen 19‐9 ≤200 U/mL (P = 0.03), carcinoembryonic antigen ≤10 ìg/L (P < 0.01) or patients without a history of cirrhosis (P < 0.01) or diabetes (P = 0.02) were associated with a greater length of overall survival. A serum albumin level >3.0 g/dL was identified as an independent predictor of overall survival (hazard ratio 0.31; 95% confidence interval 0.14–0.70) with a survival benefit of 44 weeks. Conclusion: This study was the largest analysis to date of prognostic factors in patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma. A serum albumin level >3.0 g/dL conferred an independent survival advantage with a significantly greater length of survival. PMID:27389416

Association of phase angle on bioelectrical impedance analysis and dialysis frequency with survival of chronic hemodialysis patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muzasti, R. A.; Lubis, H. R.

2018-03-01

Phase angle, a parameter by Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis, can detect body composition changes, so it can be used as a prognostic indicator in some chronic conditions. This study was for determining the relationship between PhA and hemodiálisis frequency with the survival of chronic hemodiálisis patients. This longitudinal retrospective study involved 173 chronic hemodiálisis patients at Rasyida Renal Hospital. The Kaplan-Meier method is used to determine the survival. Cox proportional hazard analysis is used to determine which variables significantly increase mortality. During the study period, 89 patients underwent hemodiálysis 3x a week (4 hours/session), and 84 patients underwent HD 2x a week (5 hours/session). Demographic and clinical characteristics in both groups were similar. There was no difference in PhA value in groups of 3x a week and group 2x a week (4.02 ± 1.13 vs 4.25 ± 1.12). Patients with twice a week hemodiálisis had a shorter survival than the 3x week group (35.14 ± 2.76 vs 38.62 ± 3.03) although it was not statistically significant (p = 0.126).

Twenty-year follow-up study of long-term survival of limited-stage small-cell lung cancer and overview of prognostic and treatment factors.

PubMed

Tai, Patricia; Tonita, Jon; Yu, Edward; Skarsgard, David

2003-07-01

To predict the long-term survival results of clinical trials earlier than using actuarial methods and to assess the factors predictive of long-term cure in patients with limited-stage small-cell lung cancer. Between 1981 and 1998, 1417 new cases of small-cell lung cancer were diagnosed in Saskatchewan, Canada, of which 244 were limited stage and treated with curative intent. They were followed to the end of February 2002. A parametric lognormal statistical model was retrospectively validated to determine whether long-term survival rates could be estimated several years earlier than is possible using the standard life-table actuarial method. The survival time of the uncured group followed a lognormal distribution. Four 2-year periods of diagnosis were combined, and patients were followed as a cohort for an additional 2 years. The estimated 10-year cause-specific survival rate was 13% by the lognormal model. The Kaplan-Meier calculation for 10-year cause-specific survival rate was 15% +/- 3%. The data also showed that the absence of mediastinal lymphadenopathy and higher chest radiotherapy dose were significant prognostic factors on multivariate analysis (p < 0.05). Among the 163 patients given prophylactic cranial irradiation, a higher biologically effective dose to the brain did not improve survival or decrease the incidence of brain metastases. The lognormal model has been validated for the estimation of survival in patients with limited-stage small-cell lung cancer. A higher biologically effective dose to the brain did not improve survival or decrease the incidence of brain metastases.

Dose and Fractionation in Radiation Therapy of Curative Intent for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Meta-Analysis of Randomized Trials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramroth, Johanna; Cutter, David J.; Darby, Sarah C.

Purpose: The optimum dose and fractionation in radiation therapy of curative intent for non-small cell lung cancer remains uncertain. We undertook a published data meta-analysis of randomized trials to examine whether radiation therapy regimens with higher time-corrected biologically equivalent doses resulted in longer survival, either when given alone or when given with chemotherapy. Methods and Materials: Eligible studies were randomized comparisons of 2 or more radiation therapy regimens, with other treatments identical. Median survival ratios were calculated for each comparison and pooled. Results: 3795 patients in 25 randomized comparisons of radiation therapy dose were studied. The median survival ratio, highermore » versus lower corrected dose, was 1.13 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.22) when radiation therapy was given alone and 0.83 (95% CI 0.71-0.97) when it was given with concurrent chemotherapy (P for difference=.001). In comparisons of radiation therapy given alone, the survival benefit increased with increasing dose difference between randomized treatment arms (P for trend=.004). The benefit increased with increasing dose in the lower-dose arm (P for trend=.01) without reaching a level beyond which no further survival benefit was achieved. The survival benefit did not differ significantly between randomized comparisons where the higher-dose arm was hyperfractionated and those where it was not. There was heterogeneity in the median survival ratio by geographic region (P<.001), average age at randomization (P<.001), and year trial started (P for trend=.004), but not for proportion of patients with squamous cell carcinoma (P=.2). Conclusions: In trials with concurrent chemotherapy, higher radiation therapy doses resulted in poorer survival, possibly caused, at least in part, by high levels of toxicity. Where radiation therapy was given without chemotherapy, progressively higher radiation therapy doses resulted in progressively longer survival, and no upper dose level was found above which there was no further benefit. These findings support the consideration of further radiation therapy dose escalation trials, making use of modern treatment methods to reduce toxicity.« less

High Availability in Optical Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grover, Wayne D.; Wosinska, Lena; Fumagalli, Andrea

2005-09-01

Call for Papers: High Availability in Optical Networks Submission Deadline: 1 January 2006 The Journal of Optical Networking (JON) is soliciting papers for a feature Issue pertaining to all aspects of reliable components and systems for optical networks and concepts, techniques, and experience leading to high availability of services provided by optical networks. Most nations now recognize that telecommunications in all its forms -- including voice, Internet, video, and so on -- are "critical infrastructure" for the society, commerce, government, and education. Yet all these services and applications are almost completely dependent on optical networks for their realization. "Always on" or apparently unbreakable communications connectivity is the expectation from most users and for some services is the actual requirement as well. Achieving the desired level of availability of services, and doing so with some elegance and efficiency, is a meritorious goal for current researchers. This requires development and use of high-reliability components and subsystems, but also concepts for active reconfiguration and capacity planning leading to high availability of service through unseen fast-acting survivability mechanisms. The feature issue is also intended to reflect some of the most important current directions and objectives in optical networking research, which include the aspects of integrated design and operation of multilevel survivability and realization of multiple Quality-of-Protection service classes. Dynamic survivable service provisioning, or batch re-provisioning is an important current theme, as well as methods that achieve high availability at far less investment in spare capacity than required by brute force service path duplication or 100% redundant rings, which is still the surprisingly prevalent practice. Papers of several types are envisioned in the feature issue, including outlook and forecasting types of treatments, optimization and analysis, new concepts for survivability, or papers on availability analysis methods or results. Customer, vendor, and researcher viewpoints and priorities will all be given consideration. Especially valuable to the community would be papers that include or provide measured data on actual reliability and availability performance of optical networking components or systems. The scope of the papers includes, but is not limited to, the following topics: Reliability and availability measurement techniques specific to optical network devices or services. Data on SRLG statistics and frequency of different actual failure causes. Real-life accounts or data on failure and repair rates or projected values for use in availability analysis. Availability analysis methods, especially for survivable networks with reconfigurable or adaptive failure-specific responses. Availability analysis and comparisons of basic schemes for survivability. Differentiated availability schemes. Design for Multiple Quality of Protection. Different schemes for on-demand survivable service provisioning. Basic comparisons or proposals of new survivability mechanisms and architectures. Concepts yielding higher than 1+1 protection switching availability at less than 100% redundancy. Survivable service provisioning in domains of optical transparency: dealing with signal impairments. To submit to this special issue, follow the normal procedure for submission to JON, indicating "Feature Issue: Optical Network Availability" in the "Comments" field of the online submission form. For all other questions relating to this feature issue, please send an e-mail to jon@osa.org, subject line "Feature Issue: Optical Network Availability." Additional information can be found on the JON website: http://www.osa-jon.org/submission/

Intermittent vs Continuous Androgen Deprivation Therapy for Prostate Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Magnan, Sindy; Zarychanski, Ryan; Pilote, Laurie; Bernier, Laurence; Shemilt, Michèle; Vigneault, Eric; Fradet, Vincent; Turgeon, Alexis F

2015-12-01

Androgen deprivation is the standard therapy for patients with advanced or recurrent prostate cancer. However, this treatment causes adverse effects, alters quality of life, and may lead to castration-resistant disease. Intermittent androgen deprivation has been studied as an alternative. To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis comparing the efficacy and tolerability of intermittent vs continuous androgen deprivation therapy in patients with prostate cancer. We searched Cochrane CENTRAL, Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Biosis, National Technical Information Service, OpenSIGLE, and Google Scholar from inception of each database through March 2014. References from published guidelines, reviews, and other relevant articles were also considered. We selected randomized clinical trials comparing intermittent vs continuous androgen deprivation therapy in patients with prostate cancer. Two reviewers performed study selection, data abstraction, and risk of bias assessment. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) with the inverse variance method and risk ratios with the Mantel-Haenszel method, using random effect models. A noninferiority analysis was conducted for overall survival with a margin of 1.15 for the upper boundary of the HR. We assessed heterogeneity using the I2 index. Primary outcomes were overall survival and quality of life. Secondary outcomes were cancer-specific survival, progression-free survival, time to castration resistance, skeletal-related events, and adverse effects. From 10 510 references, we included 22 articles from 15 trials (6856 patients) published between 2000 and 2013. All but 1 study had an unclear or high risk of bias. We observed no significant difference between intermittent and continuous therapy for overall survival (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.93-1.11; 8 trials, 5352 patients), cancer-specific survival (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.87-1.19; 5 trials, 3613 patients), and progression-free survival (HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.84-1.05; 4 trials, 1774 patients). There was minimal difference in patients' self-reported quality of life between the 2 interventions. Most trials observed an improvement in physical and sexual functioning with intermittent therapy. Intermittent androgen deprivation was not inferior to continuous therapy with respect to the overall survival. Some quality-of-life criteria seemed improved with intermittent therapy. Intermittent androgen deprivation can be considered as an alternative option in patients with recurrent or metastatic prostate cancer.

Risk-Stratified Imputation in Survival Analysis

PubMed Central

Kennedy, Richard E.; Adragni, Kofi P.; Tiwari, Hemant K.; Voeks, Jenifer H.; Brott, Thomas G.; Howard, George

2013-01-01

Background Censoring that is dependent on covariates associated with survival can arise in randomized trials due to changes in recruitment and eligibility criteria to minimize withdrawals, potentially leading to biased treatment effect estimates. Imputation approaches have been proposed to address censoring in survival analysis; and while these approaches may provide unbiased estimates of treatment effects, imputation of a large number of outcomes may over- or underestimate the associated variance based on the imputation pool selected. Purpose We propose an improved method, risk-stratified imputation, as an alternative to address withdrawal related to the risk of events in the context of time-to-event analyses. Methods Our algorithm performs imputation from a pool of replacement subjects with similar values of both treatment and covariate(s) of interest, that is, from a risk-stratified sample. This stratification prior to imputation addresses the requirement of time-to-event analysis that censored observations are representative of all other observations in the risk group with similar exposure variables. We compared our risk-stratified imputation to case deletion and bootstrap imputation in a simulated dataset in which the covariate of interest (study withdrawal) was related to treatment. A motivating example from a recent clinical trial is also presented to demonstrate the utility of our method. Results In our simulations, risk-stratified imputation gives estimates of treatment effect comparable to bootstrap and auxiliary variable imputation while avoiding inaccuracies of the latter two in estimating the associated variance. Similar results were obtained in analysis of clinical trial data. Limitations Risk-stratified imputation has little advantage over other imputation methods when covariates of interest are not related to treatment, although its performance is superior when covariates are related to treatment. Risk-stratified imputation is intended for categorical covariates, and may be sensitive to the width of the matching window if continuous covariates are used. Conclusions The use of the risk-stratified imputation should facilitate the analysis of many clinical trials, in which one group has a higher withdrawal rate that is related to treatment. PMID:23818434

Prognostic significance of combined albumin-bilirubin and tumor-node-metastasis staging system in patients who underwent hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma.

PubMed

Harimoto, Norifumi; Yoshizumi, Tomoharu; Sakata, Kazuhito; Nagatsu, Akihisa; Motomura, Takashi; Itoh, Shinji; Harada, Noboru; Ikegami, Toru; Uchiyama, Hideaki; Soejima, Yuji; Maehara, Yoshihiko

2017-11-01

In recent years, the establishment of new staging systems for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been reported worldwide. The system combining albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) with tumor-node-metastasis stage, developed by the Liver Cancer Study Group of Japan, was called the ALBI-T score. Patient data were retrospectively collected for 357 consecutive patients who had undergone hepatic resection for HCC with curative intent between January 2004 and December 2015. The overall survival and recurrence-free survival were compared by the Kaplan-Meier method, using different staging systems: the Japan integrated staging (JIS), modified JIS, and ALBI-T. Multivariate analysis identified five poor prognostic factors (higher age, poor differentiation, the presence of microvascular invasion, the presence of intrahepatic metastasis, and blood transfusion) that influenced overall survival, and four poor prognostic factors (the presence of intrahepatic metastasis, serum α-fetoprotein level, blood transfusion, and each staging system (JIS, modified JIS, and ALBI-T score)) that influenced recurrence-free survival. Patients for each these three staging system had a significantly worse prognosis regarding recurrence-free survival, but not with overall survival. The modified JIS score showed the lowest Akaike information criteria statistic value, indicating it had the best ability to predict overall survival compared with the other staging systems. This retrospective analysis showed that, in post-hepatectomy patients with HCC, the ALBI-T score is predictive of worse recurrence-free survival, even when adjustments are made for other known predictors. However, modified JIS is better than ALBI-T in predicting overall survival. © 2017 The Japan Society of Hepatology.

Statistical analysis of arthroplasty data

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

It is envisaged that guidelines for statistical analysis and presentation of results will improve the quality and value of research. The Nordic Arthroplasty Register Association (NARA) has therefore developed guidelines for the statistical analysis of arthroplasty register data. The guidelines are divided into two parts, one with an introduction and a discussion of the background to the guidelines (Ranstam et al. 2011a, see pages x-y in this issue), and this one with a more technical statistical discussion on how specific problems can be handled. This second part contains (1) recommendations for the interpretation of methods used to calculate survival, (2) recommendations on howto deal with bilateral observations, and (3) a discussion of problems and pitfalls associated with analysis of factors that influence survival or comparisons between outcomes extracted from different hospitals. PMID:21619500

A comparison of the conditional inference survival forest model to random survival forests based on a simulation study as well as on two applications with time-to-event data.

PubMed

Nasejje, Justine B; Mwambi, Henry; Dheda, Keertan; Lesosky, Maia

2017-07-28

Random survival forest (RSF) models have been identified as alternative methods to the Cox proportional hazards model in analysing time-to-event data. These methods, however, have been criticised for the bias that results from favouring covariates with many split-points and hence conditional inference forests for time-to-event data have been suggested. Conditional inference forests (CIF) are known to correct the bias in RSF models by separating the procedure for the best covariate to split on from that of the best split point search for the selected covariate. In this study, we compare the random survival forest model to the conditional inference model (CIF) using twenty-two simulated time-to-event datasets. We also analysed two real time-to-event datasets. The first dataset is based on the survival of children under-five years of age in Uganda and it consists of categorical covariates with most of them having more than two levels (many split-points). The second dataset is based on the survival of patients with extremely drug resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB) which consists of mainly categorical covariates with two levels (few split-points). The study findings indicate that the conditional inference forest model is superior to random survival forest models in analysing time-to-event data that consists of covariates with many split-points based on the values of the bootstrap cross-validated estimates for integrated Brier scores. However, conditional inference forests perform comparably similar to random survival forests models in analysing time-to-event data consisting of covariates with fewer split-points. Although survival forests are promising methods in analysing time-to-event data, it is important to identify the best forest model for analysis based on the nature of covariates of the dataset in question.

Generalized Redistribute-to-the-Right Algorithm: Application to the Analysis of Censored Cost Data

PubMed Central

CHEN, SHUAI; ZHAO, HONGWEI

2013-01-01

Medical cost estimation is a challenging task when censoring of data is present. Although researchers have proposed methods for estimating mean costs, these are often derived from theory and are not always easy to understand. We provide an alternative method, based on a replace-from-the-right algorithm, for estimating mean costs more efficiently. We show that our estimator is equivalent to an existing one that is based on the inverse probability weighting principle and semiparametric efficiency theory. We also propose an alternative method for estimating the survival function of costs, based on the redistribute-to-the-right algorithm, that was originally used for explaining the Kaplan–Meier estimator. We show that this second proposed estimator is equivalent to a simple weighted survival estimator of costs. Finally, we develop a more efficient survival estimator of costs, using the same redistribute-to-the-right principle. This estimator is naturally monotone, more efficient than some existing survival estimators, and has a quite small bias in many realistic settings. We conduct numerical studies to examine the finite sample property of the survival estimators for costs, and show that our new estimator has small mean squared errors when the sample size is not too large. We apply both existing and new estimators to a data example from a randomized cardiovascular clinical trial. PMID:24403869

[The survival prediction model of advanced gallbladder cancer based on Bayesian network: a multi-institutional study].

PubMed

Tang, Z H; Geng, Z M; Chen, C; Si, S B; Cai, Z Q; Song, T Q; Gong, P; Jiang, L; Qiu, Y H; He, Y; Zhai, W L; Li, S P; Zhang, Y C; Yang, Y

2018-05-01

Objective: To investigate the clinical value of Bayesian network in predicting survival of patients with advanced gallbladder cancer(GBC)who underwent curative intent surgery. Methods: The clinical data of patients with advanced GBC who underwent curative intent surgery in 9 institutions from January 2010 to December 2015 were analyzed retrospectively.A median survival time model based on a tree augmented naïve Bayes algorithm was established by Bayesia Lab software.The survival time, number of metastatic lymph nodes(NMLN), T stage, pathological grade, margin, jaundice, liver invasion, age, sex and tumor morphology were included in this model.Confusion matrix, the receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the curve were used to evaluate the accuracy of the model.A priori statistical analysis of these 10 variables and a posterior analysis(survival time as the target variable, the remaining factors as the attribute variables)was performed.The importance rankings of each variable was calculated with the polymorphic Birnbaum importance calculation based on the posterior analysis results.The survival probability forecast table was constructed based on the top 4 prognosis factors. The survival curve was drawn by the Kaplan-Meier method, and differences in survival curves were compared using the Log-rank test. Results: A total of 316 patients were enrolled, including 109 males and 207 females.The ratio of male to female was 1.0∶1.9, the age was (62.0±10.8)years.There was 298 cases(94.3%) R0 resection and 18 cases(5.7%) R1 resection.T staging: 287 cases(90.8%) T3 and 29 cases(9.2%) T4.The median survival time(MST) was 23.77 months, and the 1, 3, 5-year survival rates were 67.4%, 40.8%, 32.0%, respectively.For the Bayesian model, the number of correctly predicted cases was 121(≤23.77 months) and 115(>23.77 months) respectively, leading to a 74.86% accuracy of this model.The prior probability of survival time was 0.503 2(≤23.77 months) and 0.496 8(>23.77 months), the importance ranking showed that NMLN(0.366 6), margin(0.350 1), T stage(0.319 2) and pathological grade(0.258 9) were the top 4 prognosis factors influencing the postoperative MST.These four factors were taken as observation variables to get the probability of patients in different survival periods.Basing on these results, a survival prediction score system including NMLN, margin, T stage and pathological grade was designed, the median survival time(month) of 4-9 points were 66.8, 42.4, 26.0, 9.0, 7.5 and 2.3, respectively, there was a statistically significant difference in the different points( P <0.01). Conclusions: The survival prediction model of GBC based on Bayesian network has high accuracy.NMLN, margin, T staging and pathological grade are the top 4 risk factors affecting the survival of patients with advanced GBC who underwent curative resection.The survival prediction score system based on these four factors could be used to predict the survival and to guide the decision making of patients with advanced GBC.

Neoadjuvant Radiation Is Associated With Improved Survival in Patients With Resectable Pancreatic Cancer: An Analysis of Data From the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Registry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stessin, Alexander M.; Weill Medical College of Cornell University, New York, NY; Meyer, Joshua E.

2008-11-15

Purpose: Cancer of the exocrine pancreas is the fifth leading cause of cancer death in the United States. Neoadjuvant chemoradiation has been investigated in several trials as a strategy for downstaging locally advanced disease to resectability. The aim of the present study is to examine the effect of neoadjuvant radiation therapy (RT) vs. other treatments on long-term survival for patients with resectable pancreatic cancer in a large population-based sample group. Methods and Materials: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry database (1994-2003) was queried for cases of surgically resected pancreatic cancer. Retrospective analysis was performed. The endpoint of themore » study was overall survival. Results: Using Kaplan-Meier analysis we found that the median overall survival of patients receiving neoadjuvant RT was 23 months vs. 12 months with no RT and 17 months with adjuvant RT. Using Cox regression and controlling for independent covariates (age, sex, stage, grade, and year of diagnosis), we found that neoadjuvant RT results in significantly higher rates of survival than other treatments (hazard ratio [HR], 0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.38-0.79; p = 0.001). Specifically comparing adjuvant with neoadjuvant RT, we found a significantly lower HR for death in patients receiving neoadjuvant RT rather than adjuvant RT (HR, 0.63; 95% confidence interval, 0.45-0.90; p = 0.03). Conclusions: This analysis of SEER data showed a survival benefit for the use of neoadjuvant RT over surgery alone or surgery with adjuvant RT in treating pancreatic cancer. Therapeutic strategies that use neoadjuvant RT should be further explored for patients with resectable pancreatic cancer.« less

Survival analysis of colorectal cancer patients with tumor recurrence using global score test methodology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zain, Zakiyah, E-mail: zac@uum.edu.my; Ahmad, Yuhaniz, E-mail: yuhaniz@uum.edu.my; Azwan, Zairul, E-mail: zairulazwan@gmail.com, E-mail: farhanaraduan@gmail.com, E-mail: drisagap@yahoo.com

Colorectal cancer is the third and the second most common cancer worldwide in men and women respectively, and the second in Malaysia for both genders. Surgery, chemotherapy and radiotherapy are among the options available for treatment of patients with colorectal cancer. In clinical trials, the main purpose is often to compare efficacy between experimental and control treatments. Treatment comparisons often involve several responses or endpoints, and this situation complicates the analysis. In the case of colorectal cancer, sets of responses concerned with survival times include: times from tumor removal until the first, the second and the third tumor recurrences, andmore » time to death. For a patient, the time to recurrence is correlated to the overall survival. In this study, global score test methodology is used in combining the univariate score statistics for comparing treatments with respect to each survival endpoint into a single statistic. The data of tumor recurrence and overall survival of colorectal cancer patients are taken from a Malaysian hospital. The results are found to be similar to those computed using the established Wei, Lin and Weissfeld method. Key factors such as ethnic, gender, age and stage at diagnose are also reported.« less

Respiratory cancer population-based survival in Mumbai, India.

PubMed

Yeole, Balkrishna B

2005-01-01

Survival experience of patients with cancer of the larynx (ICD-32) or lung (ICD-34) registered by the Mumbai (Bombay) population based cancer registry, India, during the years 1992-94 was determined. The vital statistics of the patients were established by matching with death certificates from the Mumbai Municipal death register and by active methods such as telephone enquiry, reply-paid postal enquiry, house visits and scrutiny of case records. Of the 1905 (675 larynx and 1230 lung) eligible cases for analysis, 1480 were dead (450 larynx and 1030 lung) and 425 were alive (225 larynx and 200 lung). The overall 5-year observed and relative survival rates for laryngeal cancers were 29.1% and 36.4%, and for lung cancers were 12.5% and 15.9% respectively. On multivariate analysis, age, treatment and clinical extent of disease emerged as independent predictors of survival with both cancers. People aged 55 years and above had a relative risk of four or more for laryngeal cancer and 2.3 times and more for lung cancer death as compared to those aged less than 35 years. Early detection and prompt treatment should improve overall survival from lung as well as laryngeal cancer.

Selective lymphadenectomy in endometrial cancer: Retrospective analysis of morbidity and survival data at a tertiary care centre

PubMed Central

Chishti, Uzma; Aziz, Aliya B.; Akhtar, Munazza; Sheikh, Sana

2015-01-01

Objective: To compare perioperative morbidity and survival data between patients with early-stage endometrial cancer who did or did not undergo selective lymphadenectomy. Methods: Retrospective analysis of 180 patients with early-stage endometrial carcinoma treated between 1999 and 2008 was performed in Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, Pakistan. Results: Data from 180 patients were analysed. The selective lymphadenectomy group contained 108 women (60%) and the no lymphadenectomy group contained 72 women (40%). The median number of lymph nodes removed was 9. The mean age and extent of disease, as assessed by staging, tumour size, myometrial invasion, and lymphovascular invasion were comparable between groups. Upstaging of the disease to stage 3 and 4 occurred in 11% of patients in the lymphadenectomy group. There were no significant differences in the medical or surgical complications between groups. At a median follow-up of 26 months, both groups had comparable survival (lymphadenectomy versus no lymphadenectomy: 34 versus 32 months). Similar survival was noted for patients who underwent the removal of more or less than 5 pelvic lymph nodes. Conclusion: Selective lymphadenectomy offers the advantage of improved surgical staging but no therapeutic benefit in terms of overall survival. PMID:26430436

Survival analysis of colorectal cancer patients with tumor recurrence using global score test methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zain, Zakiyah; Aziz, Nazrina; Ahmad, Yuhaniz; Azwan, Zairul; Raduan, Farhana; Sagap, Ismail

2014-12-01

Colorectal cancer is the third and the second most common cancer worldwide in men and women respectively, and the second in Malaysia for both genders. Surgery, chemotherapy and radiotherapy are among the options available for treatment of patients with colorectal cancer. In clinical trials, the main purpose is often to compare efficacy between experimental and control treatments. Treatment comparisons often involve several responses or endpoints, and this situation complicates the analysis. In the case of colorectal cancer, sets of responses concerned with survival times include: times from tumor removal until the first, the second and the third tumor recurrences, and time to death. For a patient, the time to recurrence is correlated to the overall survival. In this study, global score test methodology is used in combining the univariate score statistics for comparing treatments with respect to each survival endpoint into a single statistic. The data of tumor recurrence and overall survival of colorectal cancer patients are taken from a Malaysian hospital. The results are found to be similar to those computed using the established Wei, Lin and Weissfeld method. Key factors such as ethnic, gender, age and stage at diagnose are also reported.

Kaplan-Meier survival analysis overestimates cumulative incidence of health-related events in competing risk settings: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lacny, Sarah; Wilson, Todd; Clement, Fiona; Roberts, Derek J; Faris, Peter; Ghali, William A; Marshall, Deborah A

2018-01-01

Kaplan-Meier survival analysis overestimates cumulative incidence in competing risks (CRs) settings. The extent of overestimation (or its clinical significance) has been questioned, and CRs methods are infrequently used. This meta-analysis compares the Kaplan-Meier method to the cumulative incidence function (CIF), a CRs method. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS Previews, Web of Science (1992-2016), and article bibliographies for studies estimating cumulative incidence using the Kaplan-Meier method and CIF. For studies with sufficient data, we calculated pooled risk ratios (RRs) comparing Kaplan-Meier and CIF estimates using DerSimonian and Laird random effects models. We performed stratified meta-analyses by clinical area, rate of CRs (CRs/events of interest), and follow-up time. Of 2,192 identified abstracts, we included 77 studies in the systematic review and meta-analyzed 55. The pooled RR demonstrated the Kaplan-Meier estimate was 1.41 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.36, 1.47] times higher than the CIF. Overestimation was highest among studies with high rates of CRs [RR = 2.36 (95% CI: 1.79, 3.12)], studies related to hepatology [RR = 2.60 (95% CI: 2.12, 3.19)], and obstetrics and gynecology [RR = 1.84 (95% CI: 1.52, 2.23)]. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the cumulative incidence across 10 clinical areas. Using CRs methods will ensure accurate results inform clinical and policy decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in Incidence and Factors Affecting Survival of Patients With Cholangiocarcinoma in the United States.

PubMed

Mukkamalla, Shiva Kumar R; Naseri, Hussain M; Kim, Byung M; Katz, Steven C; Armenio, Vincent A

2018-04-01

Background: Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) includes cancers arising from the intrahepatic and extrahepatic bile ducts. The etiology and pathogenesis of CCA remain poorly understood. This is the first study investigating both incidence patterns of CCA from 1973 through 2012 and demographic, clinical, and treatment variables affecting survival of patients with CCA. Patients and Methods: Using the SEER database, age-adjusted incidence rates were evaluated from 1973-2012 using SEER*Stat software. A retrospective cohort of 26,994 patients diagnosed with CCA from 1973-2008 was identified for survival analysis. Cox proportional hazards models were used to perform multivariate survival analysis. Results: Overall incidence of CCA increased by 65% from 1973-2012. Extrahepatic CCA (ECC) remained more common than intrahepatic CCA (ICC), whereas the incidence rates for ICC increased by 350% compared with a 20% increase seen with ECC. Men belonging to non-African American and non-Caucasian ethnicities had the highest incidence rates of CCA. This trend persisted throughout the study period, although African Americans and Caucasians saw 50% and 59% increases in incidence rates, respectively, compared with a 9% increase among other races. Median overall survival (OS) was 8 months in patients with ECC compared with 4 months in those with ICC. Our survival analysis found Hispanic women to have the best 5-year survival outcome ( P <.0001). OS diminished with age ( P <.0001), and ECC had better survival outcomes compared with ICC ( P <.0001). Patients who were married, were nonsmokers, belonged to a higher income class, and underwent surgery had better survival outcomes compared with others ( P <.0001). Conclusions: This is the most up-to-date study of CCA from the SEER registry that shows temporal patterns of increasing incidence of CCA across different races, sexes, and ethnicities. We identified age, sex, race, marital status, income, smoking status, anatomic location of CCA, tumor grade, tumor stage, radiation, and surgery as independent prognostic factors for OS in patients with CCA. Copyright © 2018 by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network.

Comorbidity and prognosis in advanced hypopharyngeal-laryngeal cancer under combined therapy.

PubMed

Montero, Elena Hernández; Trufero, Javier Martínez; Romeo, Javier Azúa; Terré, Fernando Clau

2008-01-01

The success of combined treatment in head and neck cancer resides largely in its completion, which can be compromised when the patient's general health status is precarious. The objective of this investigation was to study the role of comorbidity as a prognostic factor in a large, homogeneous population affected by locally advanced pharyngeal-laryngeal cancer, under a combined protocol treatment. The a priori hypothesis is that comorbidity strongly conditions overall survival and specific overall survival in these patients and can aid in the selection and individualization of treatments. After a 24-month follow-up, a univariate and multivariate retrospective analysis of survival and prognostic factors was performed using 14 clinical, pathological and molecular variables including the comorbidity index calculated following the Picarillo method. The settings were the Otolaryngology, Oncology and Pathology Departments of the Miguel Servet University Hospital, Zaragoza, Spain, a referral center of the National Health System. Of the original 114 patients selected, 15 were withdrawn because the tumor spread to maxillofacial areas, or due to the lack of attendance at the clinic, incomplete clinical data or coexistent primary tumors. The group under analysis consisted of the 99 remaining patients affected by stage III and IV laryngeal and/or hypopharyngeal cancers that had not received previous treatments. The main outcomes to analyze were overall survival, specific overall survival and relative risk. Overall survival at 2.5 years was 68.1% (95% CI, 57.7-78.5). Specific overall survival at 2.5 years was 74.8% (95% CI, 64.9-84.6). In the multivariate analysis, tumor staging, neoadjuvant chemotherapy response and comorbidity (RR = 1.55 and 1.44 for overall and specific overall survival, respectively) present themselves as three prognostic factors independent of overall and specific overall survival. The role of comorbidity as an independent prognostic factor in patients affected by laryngeal and/or hypopharyngeal cancer treated with chemo-radiotherapy should be taken into account in the tailoring of treatments and the improvement of therapeutic results.

Estimation of Survival Probabilities for Use in Cost-effectiveness Analyses: A Comparison of a Multi-state Modeling Survival Analysis Approach with Partitioned Survival and Markov Decision-Analytic Modeling

PubMed Central

Williams, Claire; Lewsey, James D.; Mackay, Daniel F.; Briggs, Andrew H.

2016-01-01

Modeling of clinical-effectiveness in a cost-effectiveness analysis typically involves some form of partitioned survival or Markov decision-analytic modeling. The health states progression-free, progression and death and the transitions between them are frequently of interest. With partitioned survival, progression is not modeled directly as a state; instead, time in that state is derived from the difference in area between the overall survival and the progression-free survival curves. With Markov decision-analytic modeling, a priori assumptions are often made with regard to the transitions rather than using the individual patient data directly to model them. This article compares a multi-state modeling survival regression approach to these two common methods. As a case study, we use a trial comparing rituximab in combination with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide v. fludarabine and cyclophosphamide alone for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia. We calculated mean Life Years and QALYs that involved extrapolation of survival outcomes in the trial. We adapted an existing multi-state modeling approach to incorporate parametric distributions for transition hazards, to allow extrapolation. The comparison showed that, due to the different assumptions used in the different approaches, a discrepancy in results was evident. The partitioned survival and Markov decision-analytic modeling deemed the treatment cost-effective with ICERs of just over £16,000 and £13,000, respectively. However, the results with the multi-state modeling were less conclusive, with an ICER of just over £29,000. This work has illustrated that it is imperative to check whether assumptions are realistic, as different model choices can influence clinical and cost-effectiveness results. PMID:27698003

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, John W.; Ghafoori, A. Paiman; Willett, Christopher G.

Purpose: Extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma is a rare malignancy. Despite radical resection, survival remains poor, with high rates of local and distant failure. To clarify the role of radiotherapy with chemotherapy, we performed a retrospective analysis of resected patients who had undergone chemoradiotherapy. Methods and Materials: A total of 45 patients (13 with proximal and 32 with distal disease) underwent resection plus radiotherapy (median dose, 50.4 Gy). All but 1 patient received concurrent fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy. The median follow-up was 30 months for all patients and 40 months for survivors. Results: Of the 45 patients, 33 underwent adjuvant radiotherapy, and 12 were treatedmore » neoadjuvantly. The 5-year actuarial overall survival, disease-free survival, metastasis-free survival, and locoregional control rates were 33%, 37%, 42%, and 78%, respectively. The median survival was 34 months. No patient died perioperatively. Patient age {<=}60 years and perineural involvement adversely affected survival on univariate analysis. Patients undergoing R0 resection had a significantly improved rate of local control but no survival advantage. Despite having more advanced disease at presentation, patients treated neoadjuvantly had a longer survival (5-year survival 53% vs. 23%, p = 0.16) and similar rates of Grade 2-3 surgical morbidity (16% vs. 33%, p = 0.24) compared with those treated in the postoperative setting. Conclusion: These study results suggest a possible local control benefit from chemoradiotherapy combined with surgery in patients with advanced, resected biliary cancer. Furthermore, our results suggest that a treatment strategy that includes preoperative chemoradiotherapy might result in improved tumor resectability with similar surgical morbidity compared with patients treated postoperatively, as well as potentially improved survival outcomes. Distant failure remains a significant failure pattern, suggesting the need for more effective systemic therapy.« less

Estimation of Survival Probabilities for Use in Cost-effectiveness Analyses: A Comparison of a Multi-state Modeling Survival Analysis Approach with Partitioned Survival and Markov Decision-Analytic Modeling.

PubMed

Williams, Claire; Lewsey, James D; Mackay, Daniel F; Briggs, Andrew H

2017-05-01

Modeling of clinical-effectiveness in a cost-effectiveness analysis typically involves some form of partitioned survival or Markov decision-analytic modeling. The health states progression-free, progression and death and the transitions between them are frequently of interest. With partitioned survival, progression is not modeled directly as a state; instead, time in that state is derived from the difference in area between the overall survival and the progression-free survival curves. With Markov decision-analytic modeling, a priori assumptions are often made with regard to the transitions rather than using the individual patient data directly to model them. This article compares a multi-state modeling survival regression approach to these two common methods. As a case study, we use a trial comparing rituximab in combination with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide v. fludarabine and cyclophosphamide alone for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia. We calculated mean Life Years and QALYs that involved extrapolation of survival outcomes in the trial. We adapted an existing multi-state modeling approach to incorporate parametric distributions for transition hazards, to allow extrapolation. The comparison showed that, due to the different assumptions used in the different approaches, a discrepancy in results was evident. The partitioned survival and Markov decision-analytic modeling deemed the treatment cost-effective with ICERs of just over £16,000 and £13,000, respectively. However, the results with the multi-state modeling were less conclusive, with an ICER of just over £29,000. This work has illustrated that it is imperative to check whether assumptions are realistic, as different model choices can influence clinical and cost-effectiveness results.

Time from HIV seroconversion to death: a collaborative analysis of eight studies in six low and middle-income countries before highly active antiretroviral therapy

PubMed Central

Todd, Jim; Glynn, Judith R.; Marston, Milly; Lutalo, Tom; Biraro, Sam; Mwita, Wambura; Suriyanon, Vinai; Rangsin, Ram; Nelson, Kenrad E.; Sonnenberg, Pam; Fitzgerald, Dan; Karita, Etienne; Żaba, Basia

2018-01-01

Objectives To estimate survival patterns after HIV infection in adults in low and middle-income countries. Design An analysis of pooled data from eight different studies in six countries. Methods HIV seroconverters were included from eight studies (three population-based, two occupational, and three clinic cohorts) if they were at least 15 years of age, and had no more than 4 years between the last HIV-negative and subsequent HIV-positive test. Four strata were defined: East African cohorts; South African miners cohort; Thai cohorts; Haitian clinic cohort. Kaplan–Meier functions were used to estimate survival patterns, and Weibull distributions were used to model and extend survival estimates. Analyses examined the effect of site, age, and sex on survival. Results From 3823 eligible seroconverters, 1079 deaths were observed in 19 671 person-years of follow-up. Survival times varied by age and by study site. Adjusting to age 25–29 years at seroconversion, the median survival was longer in South African miners: 11.6 years [95% confidence interval (CI) 9.8–13.7] and East African cohorts: 11.1 years (95% CI 8.7–14.2) than in Haiti: 8.3 years (95% CI 3.2–21.4) and Thailand: 7.5 years (95% CI 5.4–10.4). Survival was similar for men and women, after adjustment for age at seroconversion and site. Conclusion Without antiretroviral therapy, overall survival after HIV infection in African cohorts was similar to survival in high-income countries, with a similar pattern of faster progression at older ages at seroconversion. Survival appears to be significantly worse in Thailand where other, unmeasured factors may affect progression. PMID:18032940

Polymorphisms of LIG4, BTBD2, HMGA2, and RTEL1 Genes Involved in the Double-Strand Break Repair Pathway Predict Glioblastoma Survival

PubMed Central

Liu, Yanhong; Shete, Sanjay; Etzel, Carol J.; Scheurer, Michael; Alexiou, George; Armstrong, Georgina; Tsavachidis, Spyros; Liang, Fu-Wen; Gilbert, Mark; Aldape, Ken; Armstrong, Terri; Houlston, Richard; Hosking, Fay; Robertson, Lindsay; Xiao, Yuanyuan; Wiencke, John; Wrensch, Margaret; Andersson, Ulrika; Melin, Beatrice S.; Bondy, Melissa

2010-01-01

Purpose Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most common and aggressive type of glioma and has the poorest survival. However, a small percentage of patients with GBM survive well beyond the established median. Therefore, identifying the genetic variants that influence this small number of unusually long-term survivors may provide important insight into tumor biology and treatment. Patients and Methods Among 590 patients with primary GBM, we evaluated associations of survival with the 100 top-ranking glioma susceptibility single nucleotide polymorphisms from our previous genome-wide association study using Cox regression models. We also compared differences in genetic variation between short-term survivors (STS; ≤ 12 months) and long-term survivors (LTS; ≥ 36 months), and explored classification and regression tree analysis for survival data. We tested results using two independent series totaling 543 GBMs. Results We identified LIG4 rs7325927 and BTBD2 rs11670188 as predictors of STS in GBM and CCDC26 rs10464870 and rs891835, HMGA2 rs1563834, and RTEL1 rs2297440 as predictors of LTS. Further survival tree analysis revealed that patients ≥ 50 years old with LIG4 rs7325927 (V) had the worst survival (median survival time, 1.2 years) and exhibited the highest risk of death (hazard ratio, 17.53; 95% CI, 4.27 to 71.97) compared with younger patients with combined RTEL1 rs2297440 (V) and HMGA2 rs1563834 (V) genotypes (median survival time, 7.8 years). Conclusion Polymorphisms in the LIG4, BTBD2, HMGA2, and RTEL1 genes, which are involved in the double-strand break repair pathway, are associated with GBM survival. PMID:20368557

Neyman, Markov processes and survival analysis.

PubMed

Yang, Grace

2013-07-01

J. Neyman used stochastic processes extensively in his applied work. One example is the Fix and Neyman (F-N) competing risks model (1951) that uses finite homogeneous Markov processes to analyse clinical trials with breast cancer patients. We revisit the F-N model, and compare it with the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) formulation for right censored data. The comparison offers a way to generalize the K-M formulation to include risks of recovery and relapses in the calculation of a patient's survival probability. The generalization is to extend the F-N model to a nonhomogeneous Markov process. Closed-form solutions of the survival probability are available in special cases of the nonhomogeneous processes, like the popular multiple decrement model (including the K-M model) and Chiang's staging model, but these models do not consider recovery and relapses while the F-N model does. An analysis of sero-epidemiology current status data with recurrent events is illustrated. Fix and Neyman used Neyman's RBAN (regular best asymptotic normal) estimates for the risks, and provided a numerical example showing the importance of considering both the survival probability and the length of time of a patient living a normal life in the evaluation of clinical trials. The said extension would result in a complicated model and it is unlikely to find analytical closed-form solutions for survival analysis. With ever increasing computing power, numerical methods offer a viable way of investigating the problem.

Prognostic Value of Protocadherin10 (PCDH10) Methylation in Serum of Prostate Cancer Patients.

PubMed

Deng, Qiu-Kui; Lei, Yong-Gang; Lin, Ying-Li; Ma, Jian-Guo; Li, Wen-Ping

2016-02-16

BACKGROUND Prostate cancer is a heterogeneous malignancy with outcome difficult to predict. Currently, there is an urgent need to identify novel biomarkers that can accurately predict patient outcome and improve the treatment strategy. The aim of this study was to investigate the methylation status of PCDH10 in serum of prostate cancer patients and its potential relevance to clinicopathological features and prognosis. MATERIAL AND METHODS The methylation status of PCDH10 in serum of 171 primary prostate cancer patients and 65 controls was evaluated by methylation-specific PCR (MSP), after which the relationship between PCDH10 methylation and clinicopathologic features was evaluated. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox analysis were used to evaluate the correlation between PCDH10 methylation and prognosis. RESULTS PCDH10 methylation occurred frequently in serum of prostate cancer patients. Moreover, PCDH10 methylation was significantly associated with higher preoperative PSA level, advanced clinical stage, higher Gleason score, lymph node metastasis, and biochemical recurrence (BCR). In addition, patients with methylated PCDH10 had shorter BCR-free survival and overall survival than patients with unmethylated PCDH10. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model analysis indicated that PCDH10 methylation in serum is an independent predictor of worse BCR-free survival and overall survival. CONCLUSIONS PCDH10 methylation in serum is a potential prognostic biomarker for prostate cancer.

Immortal Time Bias: A Frequently Unrecognized Threat to Validity in the Evaluation of Postoperative Radiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, Henry S.; Gross, Cary P.; Makarov, Danil V.

2012-08-01

Purpose: To evaluate the influence of immortal time bias on observational cohort studies of postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) and the effectiveness of sequential landmark analysis to account for this bias. Methods and Materials: First, we reviewed previous studies of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to determine how frequently this bias was considered. Second, we used SEER to select three tumor types (glioblastoma multiforme, Stage IA-IVM0 gastric adenocarcinoma, and Stage II-III rectal carcinoma) for which prospective trials demonstrated an improvement in survival associated with PORT. For each tumor type, we calculated conditional survivals and adjusted hazard ratios of PORTmore » vs. postoperative observation cohorts while restricting the sample at sequential monthly landmarks. Results: Sixty-two percent of previous SEER publications evaluating PORT failed to use a landmark analysis. As expected, delivery of PORT for all three tumor types was associated with improved survival, with the largest associated benefit favoring PORT when all patients were included regardless of survival. Preselecting a cohort with a longer minimum survival sequentially diminished the apparent benefit of PORT. Conclusions: Although the majority of previous SEER articles do not correct for it, immortal time bias leads to altered estimates of PORT effectiveness, which are very sensitive to landmark selection. We suggest the routine use of sequential landmark analysis to account for this bias.« less

Radical Nephrectomy for Primary Retroperitoneal Liposarcoma Near the Kidney has a Beneficial Effect on Disease-Free Survival.

PubMed

Rhu, Jinsoo; Cho, Chan Woo; Lee, Kyo Won; Park, Hyojun; Park, Jae Berm; Choi, Yoon-La; Kim, Sung Joo

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study is to analyze the clinical impact of radical nephrectomy on retroperitoneal liposarcoma near the kidney. Data of patients who underwent surgery for unilateral primary retroperitoneal liposarcoma near the kidney were retrospectively collected. Patients were divided into four groups according to whether they underwent nephrectomy and combined resection of other organs. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to estimate disease-free survival and overall survival. Multivariable Cox analysis was used to analyze factors related to disease-free survival and overall survival. Nephrectomy (HR = 0.260, CI = 0.078-0.873, p = 0.029) had a beneficial effect on disease-free survival, while interaction model of nephrectomy*other organ resection (HR = 4.655, CI = 1.767-12.263, p = 0.002) showed poor disease-free survival. Other organ resection was not related to disease-free survival (HR = 1.543, CI = 0.146-16.251, p = 0.718). Operation method (p = 0.007) and FNCLCC grade (p < 0.001; G2, HR = 1.833, CI = 0.684-4.915, p = 0.228; G3, HR = 9.190, CI = 3.351-25.199, p < 0.001) were significant factors for disease-free survival. While combined organ resection without nephrectomy group (HR = 1.604, CI = 0.167-15.370, p = 0.682) and radical nephrectomy with combined organ resection group (HR = 1.309, CI = 0.448-3.825, p = 0.622) did not show significant difference in disease-free survival from the mass excision only group, radical nephrectomy without combined organ resection group (HR = 0.279, CI = 0.078-0.991, p = 0.048) showed superior disease-free survival. Radical nephrectomy of unilateral primary retroperitoneal liposarcoma near the kidney has a beneficial effect on disease-free survival.

Evaluation of Revascularization Subtypes in Octogenarians Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting

PubMed Central

Aziz, Abdulhameed; Lee, Anson M.; Pasque, Michael K.; Lawton, Jennifer S.; Moazami, Nader; Damiano, Ralph J.; Moon, Marc R.

2009-01-01

Background Recent data suggest that octogenarians’ long-term survival after complete CABG revascularization is superior to incomplete revascularization. Discriminating between variable definitions of “complete” complicates interpretation of survival data. We aimed to clarify octogenarian long-term survival rates by stratifying revascularization subtypes. Methods and Results From 1986 to 2007, 580 patients 80 to 94 years of age underwent CABG. Functional complete revascularization was defined as at least one graft to all diseased coronary vessels with greater than 50% stenosis. Traditional complete revascularization was defined as one graft to each major arterial system with at least 50% stenosis. Incomplete revascularization was defined as leaving diseased, ungrafted regions. Revascularization was functional in 279 (48%), traditional in 181 (31%), and incomplete in 120 (21%). Long-term survival was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Of 537 operative survivors, there were 402 late deaths. Cumulative long-term survival totaled 2,890 patient-years. Late survival (Kaplan-Meier) was similar between functional (6.8 years, mean) and traditional (6.7 years) groups (p=0.51), but diminished with incomplete (4.2 years) revascularization (p=0.007). Survival by group at 5 years was: 59±3% functional, 57±4% traditional, and 45±5% incomplete. Survival at 8 years was: 40±3% functional, 37±4% traditional, and 26±5% incomplete. To minimize selection bias in patients with limited life expectancy, Kaplan-Meier analysis was repeated including only patients with survival greater than 12 months. Survival was again impaired with incomplete revascularization (p=0.04), and there was no difference between functional and traditional complete revascularization (p=0.73). Conclusions Bypassing all diseased arterial vessels after revascularization does not afford significant long-term survival advantage compared to a traditional approach. Incomplete revascularization, related to more extensive disease, is associated with an 18% decline in survival. These data suggest that it is important to avoid incomplete revascularization in octogenarians, but the supplementary endeavor required to perform functional complete revascularization does not improve survival. PMID:19752388

Clinicopathologic characteristics associated with long-term survival in advanced epithelial ovarian cancer: an NRG Oncology/Gynecologic Oncology Group ancillary data study

PubMed Central

Hamilton, C. A.; Miller, A.; Casablanca, Y.; Horowitz, N. S.; Rungruang, B.; Krivak, T. C.; Richard, S. D.; Rodriguez, N.; Birrer, M.J.; Backes, F.J.; Geller, M.A.; Quinn, M.; Goodheart, M.J.; Mutch, D.G.; Kavanagh, J.J.; Maxwell, G. L.; Bookman, M. A.

2018-01-01

Objective To identify clinicopathologic factors associated with 10-year overall survival in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) and primary peritoneal cancer (PPC), and to develop a predictive model identifying long-term survivors. Methods Demographic, surgical, and clinicopathologic data were abstracted from GOG 182 records. The association between clinical variables and long-term survival (LTS) (>10 years) was assessed using multivariable regression analysis. Bootstrap methods were used to develop predictive models from known prognostic clinical factors and predictive accuracy was quantified using optimism-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results The analysis dataset included 3,010 evaluable patients, of whom 195 survived greater than ten years. These patients were more likely to have better performance status, endometrioid histology, stage III (rather than stage IV) disease, absence of ascites, less extensive preoperative disease distribution, microscopic disease residual following cyoreduction (R0), and decreased complexity of surgery (p<0.01). Multivariable regression analysis revealed that lower CA-125 levels, absence of ascites, stage, and R0 were significant independent predictors of LTS. A predictive model created using these variables had an AUC=0.729, which outperformed any of the individual predictors. Conclusions The absence of ascites, a low CA-125, stage, and R0 at the time of cytoreduction are factors associated with LTS when controlling for other confounders. An extensively annotated clinicopathologic prediction model for LTS fell short of clinical utility suggesting that prognostic molecular profiles are needed to better predict which patients are likely to be long-term survivors. PMID:29195926

An artificial neural network improves prediction of observed survival in patients with laryngeal squamous carcinoma.

PubMed

Jones, Andrew S; Taktak, Azzam G F; Helliwell, Timothy R; Fenton, John E; Birchall, Martin A; Husband, David J; Fisher, Anthony C

2006-06-01

The accepted method of modelling and predicting failure/survival, Cox's proportional hazards model, is theoretically inferior to neural network derived models for analysing highly complex systems with large datasets. A blinded comparison of the neural network versus the Cox's model in predicting survival utilising data from 873 treated patients with laryngeal cancer. These were divided randomly and equally into a training set and a study set and Cox's and neural network models applied in turn. Data were then divided into seven sets of binary covariates and the analysis repeated. Overall survival was not significantly different on Kaplan-Meier plot, or with either test model. Although the network produced qualitatively similar results to Cox's model it was significantly more sensitive to differences in survival curves for age and N stage. We propose that neural networks are capable of prediction in systems involving complex interactions between variables and non-linearity.

A quantitative study of shape descriptors from glioblastoma multiforme phenotypes for predicting survival outcome

PubMed Central

Desrosiers, Christian; Hassan, Lama; Tanougast, Camel

2016-01-01

Objective: Predicting the survival outcome of patients with glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is of key importance to clinicians for selecting the optimal course of treatment. The goal of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of geometric shape features, extracted from MR images, as a potential non-invasive way to characterize GBM tumours and predict the overall survival times of patients with GBM. Methods: The data of 40 patients with GBM were obtained from the Cancer Genome Atlas and Cancer Imaging Archive. The T1 weighted post-contrast and fluid-attenuated inversion-recovery volumes of patients were co-registered and segmented into delineate regions corresponding to three GBM phenotypes: necrosis, active tumour and oedema/invasion. A set of two-dimensional shape features were then extracted slicewise from each phenotype region and combined over slices to describe the three-dimensional shape of these phenotypes. Thereafter, a Kruskal–Wallis test was employed to identify shape features with significantly different distributions across phenotypes. Moreover, a Kaplan–Meier analysis was performed to find features strongly associated with GBM survival. Finally, a multivariate analysis based on the random forest model was used for predicting the survival group of patients with GBM. Results: Our analysis using the Kruskal–Wallis test showed that all but one shape feature had statistically significant differences across phenotypes, with p-value < 0.05, following Holm–Bonferroni correction, justifying the analysis of GBM tumour shapes on a per-phenotype basis. Furthermore, the survival analysis based on the Kaplan–Meier estimator identified three features derived from necrotic regions (i.e. Eccentricity, Extent and Solidity) that were significantly correlated with overall survival (corrected p-value < 0.05; hazard ratios between 1.68 and 1.87). In the multivariate analysis, features from necrotic regions gave the highest accuracy in predicting the survival group of patients, with a mean area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 63.85%. Combining the features of all three phenotypes increased the mean AUC to 66.99%, suggesting that shape features from different phenotypes can be used in a synergic manner to predict GBM survival. Conclusion: Results show that shape features, in particular those extracted from necrotic regions, can be used effectively to characterize GBM tumours and predict the overall survival of patients with GBM. Advances in knowledge: Simple volumetric features have been largely used to characterize the different phenotypes of a GBM tumour (i.e. active tumour, oedema and necrosis). This study extends previous work by considering a wide range of shape features, extracted in different phenotypes, for the prediction of survival in patients with GBM. PMID:27781499

Comparison of Weibull and Lognormal Cure Models with Cox in the Survival Analysis Of Breast Cancer Patients in Rafsanjan.

PubMed

Hoseini, Mina; Bahrampour, Abbas; Mirzaee, Moghaddameh

2017-02-16

Breast cancer is the most common cancer after lung cancer and the second cause of death. In this study we compared Weibull and Lognormal Cure Models with Cox regression on the survival of breast cancer. A cohort study. The current study retrospective cohort study was conducted on 140 patients referred to Ali Ibn Abitaleb Hospital, Rafsanjan southeastern Iran from 2001 to 2015 suffering from breast cancer. We determined and analyzed the effective survival causes by different models using STATA14. According to AIC, log-normal model was more consistent than Weibull. In the multivariable Lognormal model, the effective factors like smoking, second -hand smoking, drinking herbal tea and the last breast-feeding period were included. In addition, using Cox regression factors of significant were the disease grade, size of tumor and its metastasis (p-value<0.05). As Rafsanjan is surrounded by pistachio orchards and pesticides applied by farmers, people of this city are exposed to agricultural pesticides and its harmful consequences. The effect of the pesticide on breast cancer was studied and the results showed that the effect of pesticides on breast cancer was not in agreement with the models used in this study. Based on different methods for survival analysis, researchers can decide how they can reach a better conclusion. This comparison indicates the result of semi-parametric Cox method is closer to clinical experiences evidences.

Design and Test of an Improved Crashworthiness Small Composite Airframe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Terry, James E.; Hooper, Steven J.; Nicholson, Mark

2002-01-01

The purpose of this small business innovative research (SBIR) program was to evaluate the feasibility of developing small composite airplanes with improved crashworthiness. A combination of analysis and half scale component tests were used to develop an energy absorbing airframe. Four full scale crash tests were conducted at the NASA Impact Dynamics Research Facility, two on a hard surface and two onto soft soil, replicating earlier NASA tests of production general aviation airplanes. Several seat designs and restraint systems including both an air bag and load limiting shoulder harnesses were tested. Tests showed that occupant loads were within survivable limits with the improved structural design and the proper combination of seats and restraint systems. There was no loss of cabin volume during the events. The analysis method developed provided design guidance but time did not allow extending the analysis to soft soil impact. This project demonstrated that survivability improvements are possible with modest weight penalties. The design methods can be readily applied by airplane designers using the examples in this report.

Prognostic implications of 62Cu-diacetyl-bis (N4-methylthiosemicarbazone) PET/CT in patients with glioma.

PubMed

Toriihara, Akira; Ohtake, Makoto; Tateishi, Kensuke; Hino-Shishikura, Ayako; Yoneyama, Tomohiro; Kitazume, Yoshio; Inoue, Tomio; Kawahara, Nobutaka; Tateishi, Ukihide

2018-05-01

The potential of positron emission tomography/computed tomography using 62 Cu-diacetyl-bis (N 4 -methylthiosemicarbazone) ( 62 Cu-ATSM PET/CT), which was originally developed as a hypoxic tracer, to predict therapeutic resistance and prognosis has been reported in various cancers. Our purpose was to investigate prognostic value of 62 Cu-ATSM PET/CT in patients with glioma, compared to PET/CT using 2-deoxy-2-[ 18 F]fluoro-D-glucose ( 18 F-FDG). 56 patients with glioma of World Health Organization grade 2-4 were enrolled. All participants had undergone both 62 Cu-ATSM PET/CT and 18 F-FDG PET/CT within mean 33.5 days prior to treatment. Maximum standardized uptake value and tumor/background ratio were calculated within areas of increased radiotracer uptake. The prognostic significance for progression-free survival and overall survival were assessed by log-rank test and Cox's proportional hazards model. Disease progression and death were confirmed in 37 and 27 patients in follow-up periods, respectively. In univariate analysis, there was significant difference of both progression-free survival and overall survival in age, tumor grade, history of chemoradiotherapy, maximum standardized uptake value and tumor/background ratio calculated using 62 Cu-ATSM PET/CT. Multivariate analysis revealed that maximum standardized uptake value calculated using 62 Cu-ATSM PET/CT was an independent predictor of both progression-free survival and overall survival (p < 0.05). In a subgroup analysis including patients of grade 4 glioma, only the maximum standardized uptake values calculated using 62 Cu-ATSM PET/CT showed significant difference of progression-free survival (p < 0.05). 62 Cu-ATSM PET/CT is a more promising imaging method to predict prognosis of patients with glioma compared to 18 F-FDG PET/CT.

The association between hyperoxia and patient outcomes after cardiac arrest: Analysis of a high-resolution database

PubMed Central

Elmer, Jonathan; Scutella, Michael; Pullalarevu, Raghevesh; Wang, Bo; Vaghasia, Nishit; Trzeciak, Stephen; Rosario-Rivera, Bedda L.; Guyette, Francis X.; Rittenberger, Jon C.; Dezfulian, Cameron

2014-01-01

Purpose Previous observational studies have inconsistently associated early hyperoxia with worse outcomes after cardiac arrest and have methodological limitations. We tested this association using a high-resolution database controlling for multiple disease-specific markers of severity of illness and care processes. Methods This was a retrospective analysis of a single-center, prospective registry of consecutive cardiac arrest patients. We included patients who survived and were mechanically ventilated ≥24h after arrest. Our main exposure was arterial oxygen tension (PaO2), which we categorized hourly for 24 hours as severe hyperoxia (>300mmHg), moderate or probable hyperoxia (101-299mmHg), normoxia (60-100mmHg) or hypoxia (<60mmHg). We controlled for Utstein-style covariates, markers of disease severity and markers of care responsiveness. We performed unadjusted and multiple logistic regression to test the association between oxygen exposure and survival to discharge, and used ordered logistic regression to test the association of oxygen exposure with neurological outcome and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score at 24h. Results Of 184 patients, 36% were exposed to severe hyperoxia and overall mortality was 54%. Severe hyperoxia, but not moderate or probable hyperoxia, was associated with decreased survival in both unadjusted and adjusted analysis (adjusted odds ratio (OR) for survival 0.83 per hour exposure, P=0.04). Moderate or probable hyperoxia was not associated with survival but was associated with improved SOFA score 24h (OR 0.92, P<0.01). Conclusion Severe hyperoxia was independently associated with decreased survival to hospital discharge. Moderate or probable hyperoxia was not associated with decreased survival and was associated with improved organ function at 24h. PMID:25472570

Patterns of care and survival of adjuvant radiation for major salivary adenoid cystic carcinoma.

PubMed

Lee, Anna; Givi, Babak; Osborn, Virginia W; Schwartz, David; Schreiber, David

2017-09-01

National Cancer Care Network guidelines suggest consideration of adjuvant radiation even for early stage adenoid cystic carcinoma of the salivary glands. We used the National Cancer Data Base (NCDB) to analyze practice patterns and outcomes of postoperative radiotherapy for adenoid cystic carcinomas. Retrospective NCDB review. Patients with nonmetastatic adenoid cystic carcinoma of the parotid, submandibular, or another major salivary gland from 2004 to 2012 were identified. Information was collected regarding receipt of postoperative radiation. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to assess overall survival and Cox regression analysis to assess impact of covariates. There were 1,784 patients included. Median age was 57 years old and median follow up was 47.5 months. Of the patients, 72.4% of underwent partial/total parotidectomy and 73.6% received postoperative radiation. The 5-year survival was 72.5% for those receiving surgery alone compared to 82.4% for those receiving postoperative radiation (P < .001). On subgroup analysis, this survival difference favoring postoperative radiation was significant for pT1-2N0 (P < .001), pT3-4N0 (P = .047), pTanyN+ (P < .001), and for positive margins (P = .001), but not for negative margins (P = .053). On multivariable analysis, postoperative radiation remained associated with improved overall survival (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.63, 95% confidence interval: 0.50-0.80, P < .001). The utilization of intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) increased from 16.9% in 2004 to 56.3% in 2012 (P < .001). There was no survival benefit for IMRT over three-dimensional radiation therapy (HR = 0.84, P = .19). Postoperative radiation therapy for salivary adenoid cystic carcinoma was associated with improved survival even for those with early-stage disease. 4 Laryngoscope, 127:2057-2062, 2017. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Survival outcomes of radical prostatectomy and external beam radiotherapy in clinically localized high-risk prostate cancer: a population-based, propensity score matched study

PubMed Central

Gu, Xiaobin; Gao, Xianshu; Cui, Ming; Xie, Mu; Ma, Mingwei; Qin, Shangbin; Li, Xiaoying; Qi, Xin; Bai, Yun; Wang, Dian

2018-01-01

Objective This study was aimed to compare survival outcomes in high-risk prostate cancer (PCa) patients receiving external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) or radical prostatectomy (RP). Materials and methods The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to identify PCa patients with high-risk features who received RP alone or EBRT alone from 2004 to 2008. Propensity-score matching (PSM) was performed. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis was used to compare cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to identify independent prognostic factors. Results A total of 24,293 patients were identified, 14,460 patients receiving RP and 9833 patients receiving EBRT. Through PSM, 3828 patients were identified in each group. The mean CSS was 128.6 and 126.7 months for RP and EBRT groups, respectively (P<0.001). The subgroup analyses showed that CSS of the RP group was better than that of the EBRT group for patients aged <65 years (P<0.001), White race (P<0.001), and married status (P<0.001). However, there was no significant difference in CSS for patients aged ≥65 years, Black race, other race, and unmarried status. Similar trends were observed for OS. Multivariate analysis showed that EBRT treatment modality, T3–T4 stage, Gleason score 8–10, and prostate-specific antigen >20 ng/mL were significant risk factors for both CSS and OS. Conclusion This study suggested that survival outcomes might be better with RP than EBRT in high-risk PCa patients aged <65 years; however, RP and EBRT provided equivalent survival outcomes in older patients, which argues for primary radiotherapy in this older cohort.

Metformin Use and Endometrial Cancer Survival

PubMed Central

Nevadunsky, Nicole S.; Van Arsdale, Anne; Strickler, Howard D.; Moadel, Alyson; Kaur, Gurpreet; Frimer, Marina; Conroy, Erin; Goldberg, Gary L.; Einstein, Mark H.

2013-01-01

Objective Impaired glucose tolerance and diabetes are risk factors for the development of uterine cancer. Although greater progression free survival among diabetic patients with ovarian and breast cancer using metformin have been reported, no studies have assessed the association of metformin use with survival in women with endometrial cancer (EC). Methods We conducted a single-institution retrospective cohort study of all patients treated for uterine cancer from January 1999 through December 2009. Demographic, medical, social, and survival data were abstracted from medical records and the national death registry. Overall survival (OS) was estimated using Kaplan-Meier methods. Cox models were utilized for multivariate analysis. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Of 985 patients, 114 (12%) had diabetes and were treated with metformin, 136 (14%) were diabetic but did not use metformin, and 735 (74%) had not been diagnosed with diabetes. Greater OS was observed in diabetics with non-endometrioid EC who used metformin than in diabetic cases not using metformin and non-endometrioid EC cases without diabetes (log rank test (p=0.02)). This association remained significant (hazard ratio = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.30–0.97, p<0.04) after adjusting for age, clinical stage, grade, chemotherapy treatment, radiation treatment and presence of hyperlipidemia in multivariate analysis. No association between metformin use and OS in diabetics with endometrioid histology was observed. Conclusion Diabetic EC patients with non-endometrioid tumors who used metformin had lower risk of death than women with EC who did not use metformin. These data suggest that metformin might be useful as adjuvant therapy for non-endometrioid EC. PMID:24189334

Effects of aurothiomalate treatment on canine osteosarcoma in a murine xenograft model.

PubMed

Scharf, Valery F; Farese, James P; Siemann, Dietmar W; Abbott, Jeffrey R; Kiupel, Matti; Salute, Marc E; Milner, Rowan J

2014-03-01

Osteosarcoma is a highly fatal cancer, with most patients ultimately succumbing to metastatic disease. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of the antirheumatoid drug aurothiomalate on canine and human osteosarcoma cells and on canine osteosarcoma growth and metastasis in a mouse xenograft model. We hypothesized that aurothiomalate would decrease osteosarcoma cell survival, tumor cellular proliferation, tumor growth, and metastasis. After performing clonogenic assays, aurothiomalate or a placebo was administered to 54 mice inoculated with canine osteosarcoma. Survival, tumor growth, embolization, metastasis, histopathology, cell proliferation marker Ki67, and apoptosis marker caspase-3 were compared between groups. Statistical analysis was carried out using the Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test and one-way analysis of variance with the Tukey's test or Dunn's method. Aurothiomalate caused dose-dependent inhibition of osteosarcoma cell survival (P<0.001) and decreased tumor growth (P<0.001). Pulmonary macrometastasis and Ki67 labeling were reduced with low-dose aurothiomalate (P=0.033 and 0.005, respectively), and tumor emboli and pulmonary micrometastases were decreased with high-dose aurothiomalate (P=0.010 and 0.011, respectively). There was no difference in survival, tumor development, ulceration, mitotic indices, tumor necrosis, nonpulmonary metastases, and caspase-3 labeling. Aurothiomalate treatment inhibited osteosarcoma cell survival and reduced tumor cell proliferation, growth, embolization, and pulmonary metastasis. Given aurothiomalate's established utility in canine and human medicine, our results suggest that this compound may hold promise as an adjunctive therapy for osteosarcoma. Further translational research is warranted to better characterize the dose response of canine and human osteosarcoma to aurothiomalate.

Causes of death in U.S. Special Operations Forces in the global war on terrorism: 2001-2004.

PubMed

Holcomb, John B; McMullin, Neil R; Pearse, Lisa; Caruso, Jim; Wade, Charles E; Oetjen-Gerdes, Lynne; Champion, Howard R; Lawnick, Mimi; Farr, Warner; Rodriguez, Sam; Butler, Frank K

2007-06-01

Effective combat trauma management strategies depend upon an understanding of the epidemiology of death on the battlefield. A panel of military medical experts reviewed photographs and autopsy and treatment records for all Special Operations Forces (SOF) who died between October 2001 and November 2004 (n = 82). Fatal wounds were classified as nonsurvivable or potentially survivable. Training and equipment available at the time of injury were taken into consideration. A structured analysis was conducted to identify equipment, training, or research requirements for improved future outcomes. Five (6%) of 82 casualties had died in an aircraft crash, and their bodies were lost at sea; autopsies had been performed on all other 77 soldiers. Nineteen deaths, including the deaths at sea were noncombat; all others were combat related. Deaths were caused by explosions (43%), gunshot wounds (28%), aircraft accidents (23%), and blunt trauma (6%). Seventy of 82 deaths (85%) were classified as nonsurvivable; 12 deaths (15%) were classified as potentially survivable. Of those with potentially survivable injuries, 16 causes of death were identified: 8 (50%) truncal hemorrhage, 3 (19%) compressible hemorrhage, 2 (13%) hemorrhage amenable to tourniquet, and 1 (6%) each from tension pneumothorax, airway obstruction, and sepsis. The population with nonsurvivable injuries was more severely injured than the population with potentially survivable injuries. Structured analysis identified improved methods of truncal hemorrhage control as a principal research requirement. The majority of deaths on the modern battlefield are nonsurvivable. Improved methods of intravenous or intracavitary, noncompressible hemostasis combined with rapid evacuation to surgery may increase survival.

Survival in HIV-Infected Patients after a Cancer Diagnosis in the cART Era: Results of an Italian Multicenter Study

PubMed Central

Gotti, Daria; Raffetti, Elena; Albini, Laura; Sighinolfi, Laura; Maggiolo, Franco; Di Filippo, Elisa; Ladisa, Nicoletta; Angarano, Gioacchino; Lapadula, Giuseppe; Pan, Angelo; Esposti, Anna Degli; Fabbiani, Massimiliano; Focà, Emanuele; Scalzini, Alfredo; Donato, Francesco; Quiros-Roldan, Eugenia

2014-01-01

Objectives We studied survival and associated risk factors in an Italian nationwide cohort of HIV-infected individuals after an AIDS-defining cancer (ADC) or non-AIDS-defining cancer (NADC) diagnosis in the modern cART era. Methods Multi-center, retrospective, observational study of HIV patients included in the MASTER Italian Cohort with a cancer diagnosis from January 1998 to September 2012. Malignancies were divided into ADC or NADC on the basis of the Centre for Disease Control-1993 classification. Recurrence of cancer and metastases were excluded. Survivals were estimated according to the Kaplan-Meier method and compared according to the log-rank test. Statistically significant variables at univariate analysis were entered in a multivariate Cox regression model. Results Eight hundred and sixty-six cancer diagnoses were recorded among 13,388 subjects in the MASTER Database after 1998: 435 (51%) were ADCs and 431 (49%) were NADCs. Survival was more favorable after an ADC diagnosis than a NADC diagnosis (10-year survival: 62.7%±2.9% vs. 46%±4.2%; p = 0.017). Non-Hodgkin lymphoma had lower survival rates than patients with Kaposi sarcoma or cervical cancer (10-year survival: 48.2%±4.3% vs. 72.8%±4.0% vs. 78.5%±9.9%; p<0.001). Regarding NADCs, breast cancer showed better survival (10-year survival: 65.1%±14%) than lung cancer (1-year survival: 28%±8.7%), liver cancer (5-year survival: 31.9%±6.4%) or Hodgkin lymphoma (10-year survival: 24.8%±11.2%). Lower CD4+ count and intravenous drug use were significantly associated with decreased survival after ADCs or NADCs diagnosis. Exposure to cART was found to be associated with prolonged survival only in the case of ADCs. Conclusions cART has improved survival in patients with an ADC diagnosis, whereas the prognosis after a diagnosis of NADCs is poor. Low CD4+ counts and intravenous drug use are risk factors for survival following a diagnosis of ADCs and Hodgkin lymphoma in the NADC group. PMID:24760049

The use of propensity score methods with survival or time-to-event outcomes: reporting measures of effect similar to those used in randomized experiments.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2014-03-30

Propensity score methods are increasingly being used to estimate causal treatment effects in observational studies. In medical and epidemiological studies, outcomes are frequently time-to-event in nature. Propensity-score methods are often applied incorrectly when estimating the effect of treatment on time-to-event outcomes. This article describes how two different propensity score methods (matching and inverse probability of treatment weighting) can be used to estimate the measures of effect that are frequently reported in randomized controlled trials: (i) marginal survival curves, which describe survival in the population if all subjects were treated or if all subjects were untreated; and (ii) marginal hazard ratios. The use of these propensity score methods allows one to replicate the measures of effect that are commonly reported in randomized controlled trials with time-to-event outcomes: both absolute and relative reductions in the probability of an event occurring can be determined. We also provide guidance on variable selection for the propensity score model, highlight methods for assessing the balance of baseline covariates between treated and untreated subjects, and describe the implementation of a sensitivity analysis to assess the effect of unmeasured confounding variables on the estimated treatment effect when outcomes are time-to-event in nature. The methods in the paper are illustrated by estimating the effect of discharge statin prescribing on the risk of death in a sample of patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. In this tutorial article, we describe and illustrate all the steps necessary to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the effect of treatment on time-to-event outcomes. © 2013 The authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Genetic mixed linear models for twin survival data.

PubMed

Ha, Il Do; Lee, Youngjo; Pawitan, Yudi

2007-07-01

Twin studies are useful for assessing the relative importance of genetic or heritable component from the environmental component. In this paper we develop a methodology to study the heritability of age-at-onset or lifespan traits, with application to analysis of twin survival data. Due to limited period of observation, the data can be left truncated and right censored (LTRC). Under the LTRC setting we propose a genetic mixed linear model, which allows general fixed predictors and random components to capture genetic and environmental effects. Inferences are based upon the hierarchical-likelihood (h-likelihood), which provides a statistically efficient and unified framework for various mixed-effect models. We also propose a simple and fast computation method for dealing with large data sets. The method is illustrated by the survival data from the Swedish Twin Registry. Finally, a simulation study is carried out to evaluate its performance.

Adaptation to long-term prostate cancer survival: the perspective of elderly Asian/Pacific Islander wives.

PubMed

Ka'opua, Lana Sue I; Gotay, Carolyn C; Hannum, Meghan; Bunghanoy, Grace

2005-05-01

Increasingly evident is the important role of partners in patients' adaptation to diagnosis, treatment, and recovery. Yet, little is known about partners' adaptation when patients reach the benchmark known as long-term survival. This study describes elderly wives of prostate cancer survivors' perspectives of adaptation to the enduring challenges of prostate cancer survival and considers their experience in the context of ethnicity. Content analysis and grounded theory methods guided data collection and analysis of two waves of in-depth interviews with 26 elderly Asian/Pacific Islanders (Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, Native Hawaiian) living in Hawai'i. Continuous learning was the most common phenomenon as reflected in four types of adaptive work: involvement in husband's health, affirmation of the marital bond, normalization of adversity, and participation in personally meaningful acts. Issues are highlighted for consideration in developing culturally relevant, age-appropriate, and strengths-based interventions.

CD147 as a novel biomarker for predicting the prognosis and clinicopathological features of bladder cancer: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Li, Hongru; Xu, Yadong; Li, Hui

2017-01-01

Objective To assess the prognostic and clinicopathological characteristics of CD147 in human bladder cancer. Methods Studies on CD147 expression in bladder cancer were retrieved from PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, and the WanFang databases. Outcomes were pooled with meta-analyzing softwares RevMan 5.3 and STATA 14.0. Results Twenty-four studies with 25 datasets demonstrated that CD147 expression was higher in bladder cancer than in non-cancer tissues (OR=43.64, P<0.00001). Moreover, this increase was associated with more advanced clinical stages (OR=73.89, P<0.0001), deeper invasion (OR=3.22, P<0.00001), lower histological differentiation (OR=4.54, P=0.0005), poorer overall survival (univariate analysis, HR=2.63, P<0.00001; multivariate analysis, HR=1.86, P=0.00036), disease specific survival (univariate analysis, HR=1.65, P=0.002), disease recurrence-free survival (univariate analysis, HR=2.78, P=0.001; multivariate analysis, HR=5.51, P=0.017), rate of recurrence (OR=1.91, P=0.0006), invasive depth (pT2∼T4 vs. pTa∼T1; OR=3.22, P<0.00001), and histological differentiation (low versus moderate-to-high; OR=4.54, P=0.0005). No difference was found among disease specific survival in multivariate analysis (P=0.067), lymph node metastasis (P=0.12), and sex (P=0.15). Conclusion CD147 could be a biomarker for early diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis of bladder cancer. PMID:28977970

Integration of RNA-Seq and RPPA data for survival time prediction in cancer patients.

PubMed

Isik, Zerrin; Ercan, Muserref Ece

2017-10-01

Integration of several types of patient data in a computational framework can accelerate the identification of more reliable biomarkers, especially for prognostic purposes. This study aims to identify biomarkers that can successfully predict the potential survival time of a cancer patient by integrating the transcriptomic (RNA-Seq), proteomic (RPPA), and protein-protein interaction (PPI) data. The proposed method -RPBioNet- employs a random walk-based algorithm that works on a PPI network to identify a limited number of protein biomarkers. Later, the method uses gene expression measurements of the selected biomarkers to train a classifier for the survival time prediction of patients. RPBioNet was applied to classify kidney renal clear cell carcinoma (KIRC), glioblastoma multiforme (GBM), and lung squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC) patients based on their survival time classes (long- or short-term). The RPBioNet method correctly identified the survival time classes of patients with between 66% and 78% average accuracy for three data sets. RPBioNet operates with only 20 to 50 biomarkers and can achieve on average 6% higher accuracy compared to the closest alternative method, which uses only RNA-Seq data in the biomarker selection. Further analysis of the most predictive biomarkers highlighted genes that are common for both cancer types, as they may be driver proteins responsible for cancer progression. The novelty of this study is the integration of a PPI network with mRNA and protein expression data to identify more accurate prognostic biomarkers that can be used for clinical purposes in the future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ten-year Survival and Its Associated Factors in the Patients Undergoing Pacemaker Implantation in Hospitals Affiliated to Shiraz University of Medical Sciences During 2002 - 2012

PubMed Central

Rajaeefard, Abdolreza; Ghorbani, Mohammad; Babaee Baigi, Mohammad Ali; Tabatabae, Hamidreza

2015-01-01

Background: Heart failure is a prevalent disease affecting about 4.9 million people in the U.S. and more than 22 million individuals worldwide. Using electric pacemaker is the most common treatment for the patients with heart conduction problems. The present study aimed to determine the factors affecting survival in the patients undergoing pacemaker implantation in the hospitals affiliated to Shiraz University of Medical Sciences. Objectives: The aim of the present study was to identify the factors affecting the survival of the patients suffering from arrhythmia. Patients and Methods: This retrospective survival analysis was conducted on all 1207 patients with heart failure who had undergone permanent pacemaker implantation in the hospitals affiliated to Shiraz University of Medical Sciences from 2002 to 2012. The data were analyzed using non-parametric methods such as Kaplan-Meier method, life table, and Cox regression model. The risk factors of mortality were determined using multivariate Cox proportional hazards method. Results: Survival data were available for 1030 (80%) patients (median age = 71 years [5th to 95th percentile range: 26 - 86 years]) and follow-up was completed for 84.28% of them. According to the results, 56% of the patients had received dual-chamber systems, while 44% had been implanted by single-chamber ventricular systems. Moreover, sick sinus syndrome and pacemaker mode were independent predictors of increased mortality. Conclusions: In this study, sick sinus syndrome and pacemaker mode followed by syncope were independently associated with increased mortality. PMID:26734484

Serum CA125 predicts extrauterine disease and survival in uterine carcinosarcoma

PubMed Central

Huang, Gloria S.; Chiu, Lydia G.; Gebb, Juliana S.; Gunter, Marc J.; Sukumvanich, Paniti; Goldberg, Gary L.; Einstein, Mark H.

2009-01-01

Objective The purpose of this study was to determine the clinical utility of CA125 measurement in patients with uterine carcinosarcoma (CS). Methods Ninety-five consecutive patients treated for CS at a single institution were identified. All 54 patients who underwent preoperative CA125 measurement were included in the study. Data were abstracted from the medical records. Tests of association between preoperative CA125 and previously identified clinicopathologic prognostic factors were performed using Fisher’s exact test and Pearson chi-square test. To evaluate relationship of CA125 elevation and survival, a Cox proportional hazard model was used for multivariate analysis, incorporating all of prognostic factors identified by univariate analysis. Results Preoperative CA125 was significantly associated with the presence of extrauterine disease (P<0.001), deep myometrial invasion (P<0.001), and serous histology of the epithelial component (P=0.005). Using univariate survival analysis, stage (HR=1.808, P=0.004), postoperative CA125 level (HR=9.855, P<0.001), and estrogen receptor positivity (HR=0.314, P=0.029) were significantly associated with survival. In the multivariate model, only postoperative CA125 level remained significantly associated with poor survival (HR=5.725, P=0.009). Conclusion Preoperative CA125 elevation is a marker of extrauterine disease and deep myometrial invasion in patients with uterine CS. Postoperative CA125 elevation is an independent prognostic factor for poor survival. These findings indicate that CA125 may be a clinically useful serum marker in the management of patients with CS. PMID:17935762

A Comparative Study of Survival Rate in High Grade Glioma Tumors Being Treated by Radiotherapy Alone Versus Chemoradiation With Nitrosourea.

PubMed

Houshyari, Mohammad; Hajalikhani, Farzaneh; Rakhsha, Afshin; Hajian, Parastoo

2015-03-25

In adults, malignant glioma (high-grade glioma) is one of the most common brain tumors. In spite of different types of treatment, the outcome is still not likely to be favorable. The aim of this study was to determine the difference between survival rate in adult patients with high grade glioma treated by radiotherapy only and those treated by a combination of radiotherapy and nitrosurea-based chemotherapy. This study was conducted using the records of 48 patients with grade 3 or 4 of glial brain tumor referred to the radiation-oncology ward of Shohada-e-Tajrish Hospital in Tehran, Iran from 2005 to 2012. The patients had undergone radiotherapy alone or adjuvant chemoradiation with nitrosourea. The median survival of patients after receiving the different types of treatment were evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log -rank exam. Data were analyzed using univariate analysis for median survival regarding to the patients' age, gender, extent of surgery, Karnofsky performance status (KPS) with the Kaplan-Meier method, and the log-rank exam. We used the Cox-model for multivariate analysis. Records of 48 patients were studied (34 men and 14 women). The mean survival were 18 months for men and 15.2 months for women (P=0.05). Around 58% (28 patients) were more than 50 years old, and 42% (20 patients) were less than 50, and mean survival for the two age groups were 13 and 20 months, respectively (P<0.001). Then, the patients were divided into three groups according to the extent of surgery, i.e., excisional biopsy (11 patients), stereotactic biopsy (22 patients), and resection (15 patients), and the mean survival for the three groups were 14.7, 17.3, and 18.8 months, respectively. There was no significant statistical difference for mean survival between the three groups (P=0.23). The KPS was greater than 70% in 23 patients and less than 70% in 21 patients, and the mean survival for the former and latter groups were 17.6 and 16 months, respectively (P=0.67), four patients had unknown KPS. Twenty patients received only radiotherapy, and chemoradiation was done for 28 patients, and the mean survival for the former and latter patients were 14.5 and 19 months, respectively (P=0.15). In this study, we concluded that age was the only effective factor in the survival of the patients and that chemotherapy had no significant effect on the survival of the patients.

Modeling survival of juvenile salmon during downriver migration in the Columbia River on a microcomputer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peloquin, R.A.; McKenzie, D.H.

1994-10-01

A compartmental model has been implemented on a microcomputer as an aid in the analysis of alternative solutions to a problem. The model, entitled Smolt Survival Simulator, simulates the survival of juvenile salmon during their downstream migration and passage of hydroelectric dams in the Columbia River. The model is designed to function in a workshop environment where resource managers and fisheries biologists can study alternative measures that may potentially increase juvenile anadromous fish survival during downriver migration. The potential application of the model has placed several requirements on the implementing software. It must be available for use in workshop settings.more » The software must be easily to use with minimal computer knowledge. Scenarios must be created and executed quickly and efficiently. Results must be immediately available. Software design emphasis vas placed on the user interface because of these requirements. The discussion focuses on methods used in the development of the SSS software user interface. These methods should reduce user stress and alloy thorough and easy parameter modification.« less

Estimating survival of radio-tagged birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunck, C.M.; Pollock, K.H.; Lebreton, J.-D.; North, P.M.

1993-01-01

Parametric and nonparametric methods for estimating survival of radio-tagged birds are described. The general assumptions of these methods are reviewed. An estimate based on the assumption of constant survival throughout the period is emphasized in the overview of parametric methods. Two nonparametric methods, the Kaplan-Meier estimate of the survival funcrion and the log rank test, are explained in detail The link between these nonparametric methods and traditional capture-recapture models is discussed aloag with considerations in designing studies that use telemetry techniques to estimate survival.

No Evidence That Genetic Variation in the Myeloid-Derived Suppressor Cell Pathway Influences Ovarian Cancer Survival.

PubMed

Sucheston-Campbell, Lara E; Cannioto, Rikki; Clay, Alyssa I; Etter, John Lewis; Eng, Kevin H; Liu, Song; Battaglia, Sebastiano; Hu, Qiang; Szender, J Brian; Minlikeeva, Albina; Joseph, Janine M; Mayor, Paul; Abrams, Scott I; Segal, Brahm H; Wallace, Paul K; Soh, Kah Teong; Zsiros, Emese; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Bandera, Elisa V; Beckmann, Matthias W; Berchuck, Andrew; Bjorge, Line; Bruegl, Amanda; Campbell, Ian G; Campbell, Shawn Patrice; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Cramer, Daniel W; Dansonka-Mieszkowska, Agnieszka; Dao, Fanny; Diergaarde, Brenda; Doerk, Thilo; Doherty, Jennifer A; du Bois, Andreas; Eccles, Diana; Engelholm, Svend Aage; Fasching, Peter A; Gayther, Simon A; Gentry-Maharaj, Aleksandra; Glasspool, Rosalind M; Goodman, Marc T; Gronwald, Jacek; Harter, Philipp; Hein, Alexander; Heitz, Florian; Hillemmanns, Peter; Høgdall, Claus; Høgdall, Estrid V S; Huzarski, Tomasz; Jensen, Allan; Johnatty, Sharon E; Jung, Audrey; Karlan, Beth Y; Klapdor, Reudiger; Kluz, Tomasz; Konopka, Bożena; Kjær, Susanne Krüger; Kupryjanczyk, Jolanta; Lambrechts, Diether; Lester, Jenny; Lubiński, Jan; Levine, Douglas A; Lundvall, Lene; McGuire, Valerie; McNeish, Iain A; Menon, Usha; Modugno, Francesmary; Ness, Roberta B; Orsulic, Sandra; Paul, James; Pearce, Celeste Leigh; Pejovic, Tanja; Pharoah, Paul; Ramus, Susan J; Rothstein, Joseph; Rossing, Mary Anne; Rübner, Matthias; Schildkraut, Joellen M; Schmalfeldt, Barbara; Schwaab, Ira; Siddiqui, Nadeem; Sieh, Weiva; Sobiczewski, Piotr; Song, Honglin; Terry, Kathryn L; Van Nieuwenhuysen, Els; Vanderstichele, Adriaan; Vergote, Ignace; Walsh, Christine S; Webb, Penelope M; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Whittemore, Alice S; Wu, Anna H; Ziogas, Argyrios; Odunsi, Kunle; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Goode, Ellen L; Moysich, Kirsten B

2017-03-01

Background: The precise mechanism by which the immune system is adversely affected in cancer patients remains poorly understood, but the accumulation of immunosuppressive/protumorigenic myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSCs) is thought to be a prominent mechanism contributing to immunologic tolerance of malignant cells in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). To this end, we hypothesized genetic variation in MDSC pathway genes would be associated with survival after EOC diagnoses. Methods: We measured the hazard of death due to EOC within 10 years of diagnosis, overall and by invasive subtype, attributable to SNPs in 24 genes relevant in the MDSC pathway in 10,751 women diagnosed with invasive EOC. Versatile Gene-based Association Study and the admixture likelihood method were used to test gene and pathway associations with survival. Results: We did not identify individual SNPs that were significantly associated with survival after correction for multiple testing ( P < 3.5 × 10 -5 ), nor did we identify significant associations between the MDSC pathway overall, or the 24 individual genes and EOC survival. Conclusions: In this well-powered analysis, we observed no evidence that inherited variations in MDSC-associated SNPs, individual genes, or the collective genetic pathway contributed to EOC survival outcomes. Impact: Common inherited variation in genes relevant to MDSCs was not associated with survival in women diagnosed with invasive EOC. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(3); 420-4. ©2016 AACR . ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

Estimating Time to Event From Longitudinal Categorical Data: An Analysis of Multiple Sclerosis Progression.

PubMed

Mandel, Micha; Gauthier, Susan A; Guttmann, Charles R G; Weiner, Howard L; Betensky, Rebecca A

2007-12-01

The expanded disability status scale (EDSS) is an ordinal score that measures progression in multiple sclerosis (MS). Progression is defined as reaching EDSS of a certain level (absolute progression) or increasing of one point of EDSS (relative progression). Survival methods for time to progression are not adequate for such data since they do not exploit the EDSS level at the end of follow-up. Instead, we suggest a Markov transitional model applicable for repeated categorical or ordinal data. This approach enables derivation of covariate-specific survival curves, obtained after estimation of the regression coefficients and manipulations of the resulting transition matrix. Large sample theory and resampling methods are employed to derive pointwise confidence intervals, which perform well in simulation. Methods for generating survival curves for time to EDSS of a certain level, time to increase of EDSS of at least one point, and time to two consecutive visits with EDSS greater than three are described explicitly. The regression models described are easily implemented using standard software packages. Survival curves are obtained from the regression results using packages that support simple matrix calculation. We present and demonstrate our method on data collected at the Partners MS center in Boston, MA. We apply our approach to progression defined by time to two consecutive visits with EDSS greater than three, and calculate crude (without covariates) and covariate-specific curves.

WEC Design Response Toolbox v. 1.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coe, Ryan; Michelen, Carlos; Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey

2016-03-30

The WEC Design Response Toolbox (WDRT) is a numerical toolbox for design-response analysis of wave energy converters (WECs). The WDRT was developed during a series of efforts to better understand WEC survival design. The WDRT has been designed as a tool for researchers and developers, enabling the straightforward application of statistical and engineering methods. The toolbox includes methods for short-term extreme response, environmental characterization, long-term extreme response and risk analysis, fatigue, and design wave composition.

Association between Allogeneic or Autologous Blood Transfusion and Survival in Patients after Radical Prostatectomy: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Yuan, Xiao-Hua

2017-01-01

Background A number of studies have investigated the effect of perioperative blood transfusion (PBT) for patients after radical prostatectomy (RP), with some reporting conflicting results. A systematic review of the literature and a meta-analysis were conducted to explore the association between PBT (autologous or allogeneic) and biochemical recurrence-free survival (BRFS), overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients undergoing RP. Methods The PubMed, Medline, Cochrane Library, and Embase databases were searched for published controlled clinical studies on perioperative allogeneic or autologous blood transfusion (BT) and patient survival after RP. STATA software version 12.0 was used for data analysis. We used hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to test the correlation between BT and patient survival after RP. Results Data from a total of 26,698 patients in ten published studies were included in the meta-analysis. The meta-analysis results showed that autologous BT was not associated with BRFS (HR: 1.06; 95% CI: 0.96–1.18; Z = 1.17; P = 0.24), OS (HR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.71–1.04; Z = 1.58; P = 0.11), or CSS (HR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.49–1.96; Z = 0.05; P = 0.96). Allogeneic BT exhibited a significant association with worse BRFS (HR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.01–1.16; Z = 2.37; P = 0.02), OS (HR: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.24–1.64; Z = 4.95; P<0.01) and CSS (HR: 1.74; 95% CI: 1.18–2.56; Z = 2.81; P = 0.005). Conclusion Our data showed an association between allogeneic BT and reduced BRFS, OS and CSS in patients after RP. These findings indicate that perioperative blood conservation strategies are important for decreasing the allogeneic BT rate. PMID:28135341

Statin use and kidney cancer outcomes: A propensity score analysis.

PubMed

Nayan, Madhur; Finelli, Antonio; Jewett, Michael A S; Juurlink, David N; Austin, Peter C; Kulkarni, Girish S; Hamilton, Robert J

2016-11-01

Studies evaluating the association between statin use and survival outcomes in renal cell carcinoma have demonstrated conflicting results. Our objective was to evaluate this association in a large clinical cohort by using propensity score methods to reduce confounding from measured covariates. We performed a retrospective review of 893 patients undergoing nephrectomy for unilateral, M0 renal cell carcinoma between 2000 and 2014 at a tertiary academic center. Inverse probability of treatment weights were derived from a propensity score model based on clinical, surgical, and pathological characteristics. We used Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate the association between statin use and disease-free survival, cancer-specific survival, and overall survival in the sample weighted by the inverse probability of treatment weights. A secondary analysis was performed matching statin users 1:1 to statin nonusers on the propensity score. Of the 893 patients, 259 (29%) were on statins at the time of surgery. Median follow-up was 47 months (interquartile range: 20-80). Statin use was not significantly associated with disease-free survival (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.65-1.81), cancer-specific survival (HR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.40-2.01), or overall survival (HR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.55-1.44). Similar results were observed when using propensity score matching. The present study found no significant association between statin use and kidney cancer outcomes. Population-based studies are needed to further evaluate the role of statins in kidney cancer therapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cure models for estimating hospital-based breast cancer survival.

PubMed

Rama, Ranganathan; Swaminathan, Rajaraman; Venkatesan, Perumal

2010-01-01

Research on cancer survival is enriched by development and application of innovative analytical approaches in relation to standard methods. The aim of the present paper is to document the utility of a mixture model to estimate the cure fraction and compare it with other approaches. The data were for 1,107 patients with locally advanced breast cancer, who completed the neo-adjuvant treatment protocol during 1990-99 at the Cancer Institute (WIA), Chennai, India. Tumour stage, post-operative pathological node (PN) and tumour residue (TR) status were studied. Event free survival probability was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cure models under proportional and non-proportional hazard assumptions following log normal distribution for survival time were used to estimate both the cure fraction and the survival function for the uncured. Event free survival at 5 and 10 years were 64.2% and 52.6% respectively and cure fraction was 47.5% for all cases together. Follow up ranged between 0-15 years and survival probabilities showed minimal changes after 7 years of follow up. TR and PN emerged as independent prognostic factors using Cox and proportional hazard (PH) cure models. Proportionality condition was violated when tumour stage was considered and it was statistically significant only under PH and not under non PH cure models. However, TR and PN continued to be independent prognostic factors after adjusting for tumour stage using the non PH cure model. A consistent ordering of cure fractions with respect to factors of PN and TR was forthcoming across tumour stages using PH and non PH cure models, but perceptible differences in survival were observed between the two. If PH conditions are violated, analysis using a non PH model is advocated and mixture cure models are useful in estimating the cure fraction and constructing survival curves for non-cures.

Treatment results and prognostic factors of pediatric neuroblastoma: a retrospective study

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background We conducted a retrospective analysis to investigate treatment results and prognostic factors of pediatric neuroblastoma patients. Methods This retrospective study was carried out analyzing the medical records of patients with the pathological diagnosis of neuroblastoma seen at South Egypt Cancer Institute, Assiut University during the period from January 2001 and January 2010. After induction chemotherapy, response according to international neuoblastoma response criteria was assessed. Radiotherapy to patients with residual primary tumor was applied. Overall and event free survival (OAS and EFS) rates were estimated using Graphed prism program. The Log-rank test was used to examine differences in OAS and EFS rates. Cox-regression multivariate analysis was done to determine the independent prognostic factors affecting survival rates. Results Fifty three cases were analyzed. The median follow-up duration was 32 months and ranged from 2 to 84 months. The 3-year OAS and EFS rates were 39.4% and 29.3% respectively. Poor prognostic factors included age >1 year of age, N-MYC amplification, and high risk group. The majority of patients (68%) presented in high risk group, where treatment outcome was poor, as only 21% of patients survived for 3 year. Conclusion Multivariate analysis confirmed only the association between survival and risk group. However, in univariate analysis, local radiation therapy resulted in significant survival improvement. Therefore, radiotherapy should be given to patients with residual tumor evident after induction chemotherapy and surgery. Future attempts to improve OAS in high risk group patients with aggressive chemotherapy and bone marrow transplantation should be considered. PMID:21182799

Risks and Benefits of Multimodal Esophageal Cancer Treatments: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Sun, Lei; Zhao, Fen; Zeng, Yan; Yi, Cheng

2017-02-19

BACKGROUND Esophageal cancer has traditionally been associated with very poor outcomes. A number of therapies are available for the treatment and palliation of esophageal cancer, but little systematic evidence compares the efficacy of different treatment strategies. This meta-analysis aimed to investigate whether treatments in addition to radiotherapy could provide better efficacy and safety. MATERIAL AND METHODS We identified a total of 12 eligible studies with 18 study arms by searching PubMed, the Cochrane Library, EMBASE, and Clinical Trials.gov without time or language restrictions. The final search was conducted on 17 August 2016. We calculated mean differences (MD) and risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for continuous and dichotomous data, respectively. Heterogeneity was calculated and reported using Tau², Chi², and I² analyses. RESULTS Twelve studies with 18 study arms were included in the analysis. Addition of surgery to chemo-radiotherapy resulted in improved median survival time (p=0.009) compared with chemo-radiotherapy alone, but all other outcomes were unaffected. Strikingly, and in contrast with patients with squamous cell carcinomas, the subset of patients with adenocarcinoma who received therapies in addition to radiotherapy showed a significant improvement in median survival time (p<0.0001), disease-free survival (p=0.007), 2-year survival rates (p=0.002), and 3-year survival rates (p=0.01). The incidence of adverse effects increased substantially with additional therapies. CONCLUSIONS This meta-analysis reveals stark differences in outcomes in patients depending on the type of carcinoma. Patients with squamous cell carcinoma should be educated about the risks and benefits of undergoing multiple therapies.

Sex determination of human remains from peptides in tooth enamel.

PubMed

Stewart, Nicolas Andre; Gerlach, Raquel Fernanda; Gowland, Rebecca L; Gron, Kurt J; Montgomery, Janet

2017-12-26

The assignment of biological sex to archaeological human skeletons is a fundamental requirement for the reconstruction of the human past. It is conventionally and routinely performed on adults using metric analysis and morphological traits arising from postpubertal sexual dimorphism. A maximum accuracy of ∼95% is possible if both the cranium and os coxae are present and intact, but this is seldom achievable for all skeletons. Furthermore, for infants and juveniles, there are no reliable morphological methods for sex determination without resorting to DNA analysis, which requires good DNA survival and is time-consuming. Consequently, sex determination of juvenile remains is rarely undertaken, and a dependable and expedient method that can correctly assign biological sex to human remains of any age is highly desirable. Here we present a method for sex determination of human remains by means of a minimally destructive surface acid etching of tooth enamel and subsequent identification of sex chromosome-linked isoforms of amelogenin, an enamel-forming protein, by nanoflow liquid chromatography mass spectrometry. Tooth enamel is the hardest tissue in the human body and survives burial exceptionally well, even when the rest of the skeleton or DNA in the organic fraction has decayed. Our method can reliably determine the biological sex of humans of any age using a body tissue that is difficult to cross-contaminate and is most likely to survive. The application of this method will make sex determination of adults and, for the first time, juveniles a reliable and routine activity in future bioarcheological and medico-legal science contexts. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

An Approach to Addressing Selection Bias in Survival Analysis

PubMed Central

Carlin, Caroline S.; Solid, Craig A.

2014-01-01

This work proposes a frailty model that accounts for non-random treatment assignment in survival analysis. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we found that estimated treatment parameters from our proposed endogenous selection survival model (esSurv) closely parallel the consistent two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI) results, while offering computational and interpretive advantages. The esSurv method greatly enhances computational speed relative to 2SRI by eliminating the need for bootstrapped standard errors, and generally results in smaller standard errors than those estimated by 2SRI. In addition, esSurv explicitly estimates the correlation of unobservable factors contributing to both treatment assignment and the outcome of interest, providing an interpretive advantage over the residual parameter estimate in the 2SRI method. Comparisons with commonly used propensity score methods and with a model that does not account for non-random treatment assignment show clear bias in these methods that is not mitigated by increased sample size. We illustrate using actual dialysis patient data comparing mortality of patients with mature arteriovenous grafts for venous access to mortality of patients with grafts placed but not yet ready for use at the initiation of dialysis. We find strong evidence of endogeneity (with estimate of correlation in unobserved factors ρ̂ = 0.55), and estimate a mature-graft hazard ratio of 0.197 in our proposed method, with a similar 0.173 hazard ratio using 2SRI. The 0.630 hazard ratio from a frailty model without a correction for the non-random nature of treatment assignment illustrates the importance of accounting for endogeneity. PMID:24845211

An evaluation of treatment strategies for head and neck cancer in an African American population.

PubMed

Ignacio, D N; Griffin, J J; Daniel, M G; Serlemitsos-Day, M T; Lombardo, F A; Alleyne, T A

2013-07-01

This study evaluated treatment strategies for head and neck cancers in a predominantly African American population. Data were collected utilizing medical records and the tumour registry at the Howard University Hospital. Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis predicted the hazard of death. Analysis revealed that the main treatment strategy was radiation combined with platinum for all stages except stage I. Cetuximab was employed in only 1% of cases. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed stage II patients had poorer outcome than stage IV while Cox proportional hazard regression analysis (p = 0.4662) showed that stage I had a significantly lower hazard of death than stage IV (HR = 0.314; p = 0.0272). Contributory factors included tobacco and alcohol but body mass index (BMI) was inversely related to hazard of death. There was no difference in survival using any treatment modality for African Americans.

Management and Survival Patterns of Patients with Gliomatosis Cerebri: A SEER-Based Analysis.

PubMed

Carroll, Kate T; Hirshman, Brian; Ali, Mir Amaan; Alattar, Ali A; Brandel, Michael G; Lochte, Bryson; Lanman, Tyler; Carter, Bob; Chen, Clark C

2017-07-01

We used the SEER (Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results) database (1999-2010) to analyze the clinical practice patterns and overall survival in patients with gliomatosis cerebri (GC), or glioma involving 3 or more lobes of the cerebrum. We identified 111 patients (age ≥18 years) with clinically or microscopically diagnosed GC in the SEER database. Analyses were performed to determine clinical practice patterns for these patients and whether these practices were associated with survival. Fifty-eight percent of the 111 patients with GC received microscopic confirmation of their diagnosis. Of the remaining patients, 40% were diagnosed via imaging or laboratory tests, and 2% had unknown methods of diagnosis. Seven percent of patients who did not have microscopic confirmation of their diagnosis received radiation therapy. Radiation therapy and surgery were not associated with survival. The only variable significantly associated with overall survival was age at diagnosis. Patients aged 18-50 years showed improved survival relative to patients aged >50 years (median survival, 11 and 6 months, respectively; P = 0.03). For patients aged >50 years, improved overall survival was observed in the post-temozolomide era (2005-2010) relative to those treated in the pre-temozolomide era (1999-2004) (median survival, 9 and 4 months, respectively; P = 0.005). In the SEER database, ∼40% of the patients with glioma with imaging findings of GC do not receive microscopic confirmation of their diagnosis. We propose that tissue confirmation is warranted in patients with GC, because genomic analysis of these specimens may provide insights that will contribute to meaningful therapeutic intervention. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hepatitis C virus recurrence after liver transplantation: a 10-year evaluation.

PubMed

Gitto, Stefano; Belli, Luca Saverio; Vukotic, Ranka; Lorenzini, Stefania; Airoldi, Aldo; Cicero, Arrigo Francesco Giuseppe; Vangeli, Marcello; Brodosi, Lucia; Panno, Arianna Martello; Di Donato, Roberto; Cescon, Matteo; Grazi, Gian Luca; De Carlis, Luciano; Pinna, Antonio Daniele; Bernardi, Mauro; Andreone, Pietro

2015-04-07

To evaluate the predictors of 10-year survival of patients with hepatitis C recurrence. Data from 358 patients transplanted between 1989 and 2010 in two Italian transplant centers and with evidence of hepatitis C recurrence were analyzed. A χ(2), Fisher's exact test and Kruskal Wallis' test were used for categorical and continuous variables, respectively. Survival analysis was performed at 10 years after transplant using the Kaplan-Meier method, and a log-rank test was used to compare groups. A P level less than 0.05 was considered significant for all tests. Multivariate analysis of the predictive role of different variables on 10-year survival was performed by a stepwise Cox logistic regression. The ten-year survival of the entire population was 61.2%. Five groups of patients were identified according to the virological response or lack of a response to antiviral treatment and, among those who were not treated, according to the clinical status (mild hepatitis C recurrence, "too sick to be treated" and patients with comorbidities contraindicating the treatment). While the 10-year survival of treated and untreated patients was not different (59.1% vs 64.7%, P = 0.192), patients with a sustained virological response had a higher 10-year survival rate than both the "non-responders" (84.7% vs 39.8%, P < 0.0001) and too sick to be treated (84.7% vs 0%, P < 0.0001). Sustained virological responders had a survival rate comparable to patients untreated with mild recurrence (84.7% vs 89.3%). A sustained virological response and young donor age were independent predictors of 10-year survival. Sustained virological response significantly increased long-term survival. Awaiting the interferon-free regimen global availability, antiviral treatment might be questionable in selected subjects with mild hepatitis C recurrence.

The prognostic utility of baseline alpha-fetoprotein for hepatocellular carcinoma patients.

PubMed

Silva, Jack P; Gorman, Richard A; Berger, Nicholas G; Tsai, Susan; Christians, Kathleen K; Clarke, Callisia N; Mogal, Harveshp; Gamblin, T Clark

2017-12-01

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) has a valuable role in postoperative surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence. The utility of pretreatment or baseline AFP remains controversial. The present study hypothesized that elevated baseline AFP levels are associated with worse overall survival in HCC patients. Adult HCC patients were identified using the National Cancer Database (2004-2013). Patients were stratified according to baseline AFP measurements into the following groups: Negative (<20), Borderline (20-199), Elevated (200-1999), and Highly Elevated (>2000). The primary outcome was overall survival (OS), which was analyzed by log-rank test and graphed using Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate regression modeling was used to determine hazard ratios (HR) for OS. Of 41 107 patients identified, 15 809 (33.6%) were Negative. Median overall survival was highest in the Negative group, followed by Borderline, Elevated, and Highly Elevated (28.7 vs 18.9 vs 8.8 vs 3.2 months; P < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, overall survival hazard ratios for the Borderline, Elevated, and Highly Elevated groups were 1.18 (P = 0.267), 1.94 (P < 0.001), and 1.77 (P = 0.007), respectively (reference Negative). Baseline AFP independently predicted overall survival in HCC patients regardless of treatment plan. A baseline AFP value is a simple and effective method to assist in expected survival for HCC patients. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effects of growth rate, size, and light availability on tree survival across life stages: a demographic analysis accounting for missing values and small sample sizes.

PubMed

Moustakas, Aristides; Evans, Matthew R

2015-02-28

Plant survival is a key factor in forest dynamics and survival probabilities often vary across life stages. Studies specifically aimed at assessing tree survival are unusual and so data initially designed for other purposes often need to be used; such data are more likely to contain errors than data collected for this specific purpose. We investigate the survival rates of ten tree species in a dataset designed to monitor growth rates. As some individuals were not included in the census at some time points we use capture-mark-recapture methods both to allow us to account for missing individuals, and to estimate relocation probabilities. Growth rates, size, and light availability were included as covariates in the model predicting survival rates. The study demonstrates that tree mortality is best described as constant between years and size-dependent at early life stages and size independent at later life stages for most species of UK hardwood. We have demonstrated that even with a twenty-year dataset it is possible to discern variability both between individuals and between species. Our work illustrates the potential utility of the method applied here for calculating plant population dynamics parameters in time replicated datasets with small sample sizes and missing individuals without any loss of sample size, and including explanatory covariates.

Disparities in pediatric leukemia early survival in Argentina: a population-based study.

PubMed

Garibotti, Gilda; Moreno, Florencia; Dussel, Veronica; Orellana, Liliana

2014-10-01

To identify disparities-using recursive partitioning (RP)-in early survival for children with leukemias treated in Argentina, and to depict the main characteristics of the most vulnerable groups. This secondary data analysis evaluated 12-month survival (12-ms) in 3 987 children diagnosed between 2000 and 2008 with lymphoid leukemia (LL) and myeloid leukemia (ML) and registered in Argentina's population-based oncopediatric registry. Prognostic groups based on age at diagnosis, gender, socioeconomic index of the province of residence, and migration to a different province to receive health care were identified using the RP method. Overall 12-ms for LL and ML cases was 83.7% and 59.9% respectively. RP detected major gaps in 12-ms. Among 1-10-year-old LL patients from poorer provinces, 12-ms for those who did and did not migrate was 87.0% and 78.2% respectively. Survival of ML patients < 2 years old from provinces with a low/medium socioeconomic index was 38.9% compared to 62.1% for those in the same age group from richer provinces. For 2-14-year-old ML patients living in poor provinces, patient migration was associated with a 30% increase in 12-ms. Major disparities in leukemia survival among Argentine children were found. Patient migration and socioeconomic index of residence province were associated with survival. The RP method was instrumental in identifying and characterizing vulnerable groups.

WebDISCO: a web service for distributed cox model learning without patient-level data sharing.

PubMed

Lu, Chia-Lun; Wang, Shuang; Ji, Zhanglong; Wu, Yuan; Xiong, Li; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Ohno-Machado, Lucila

2015-11-01

The Cox proportional hazards model is a widely used method for analyzing survival data. To achieve sufficient statistical power in a survival analysis, it usually requires a large amount of data. Data sharing across institutions could be a potential workaround for providing this added power. The authors develop a web service for distributed Cox model learning (WebDISCO), which focuses on the proof-of-concept and algorithm development for federated survival analysis. The sensitive patient-level data can be processed locally and only the less-sensitive intermediate statistics are exchanged to build a global Cox model. Mathematical derivation shows that the proposed distributed algorithm is identical to the centralized Cox model. The authors evaluated the proposed framework at the University of California, San Diego (UCSD), Emory, and Duke. The experimental results show that both distributed and centralized models result in near-identical model coefficients with differences in the range [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text]. The results confirm the mathematical derivation and show that the implementation of the distributed model can achieve the same results as the centralized implementation. The proposed method serves as a proof of concept, in which a publicly available dataset was used to evaluate the performance. The authors do not intend to suggest that this method can resolve policy and engineering issues related to the federated use of institutional data, but they should serve as evidence of the technical feasibility of the proposed approach.Conclusions WebDISCO (Web-based Distributed Cox Regression Model; https://webdisco.ucsd-dbmi.org:8443/cox/) provides a proof-of-concept web service that implements a distributed algorithm to conduct distributed survival analysis without sharing patient level data. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Network regularised Cox regression and multiplex network models to predict disease comorbidities and survival of cancer.

PubMed

Xu, Haoming; Moni, Mohammad Ali; Liò, Pietro

2015-12-01

In cancer genomics, gene expression levels provide important molecular signatures for all types of cancer, and this could be very useful for predicting the survival of cancer patients. However, the main challenge of gene expression data analysis is high dimensionality, and microarray is characterised by few number of samples with large number of genes. To overcome this problem, a variety of penalised Cox proportional hazard models have been proposed. We introduce a novel network regularised Cox proportional hazard model and a novel multiplex network model to measure the disease comorbidities and to predict survival of the cancer patient. Our methods are applied to analyse seven microarray cancer gene expression datasets: breast cancer, ovarian cancer, lung cancer, liver cancer, renal cancer and osteosarcoma. Firstly, we applied a principal component analysis to reduce the dimensionality of original gene expression data. Secondly, we applied a network regularised Cox regression model on the reduced gene expression datasets. By using normalised mutual information method and multiplex network model, we predict the comorbidities for the liver cancer based on the integration of diverse set of omics and clinical data, and we find the diseasome associations (disease-gene association) among different cancers based on the identified common significant genes. Finally, we evaluated the precision of the approach with respect to the accuracy of survival prediction using ROC curves. We report that colon cancer, liver cancer and renal cancer share the CXCL5 gene, and breast cancer, ovarian cancer and renal cancer share the CCND2 gene. Our methods are useful to predict survival of the patient and disease comorbidities more accurately and helpful for improvement of the care of patients with comorbidity. Software in Matlab and R is available on our GitHub page: https://github.com/ssnhcom/NetworkRegularisedCox.git. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Survival after aortic valve replacement for severe aortic stenosis with low transvalvular gradients and severe left ventricular dysfunction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pereira, Jeremy J.; Lauer, Michael S.; Bashir, Mohammad; Afridi, Imran; Blackstone, Eugene H.; Stewart, William J.; McCarthy, Patrick M.; Thomas, James D.; Asher, Craig R.

2002-01-01

OBJECTIVE: We sought to assess whether aortic valve replacement (AVR) among patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS), severe left ventricular (LV) dysfunction and a low transvalvular gradient (TVG) is associated with improved survival. BACKGROUND: The optimal management of patients with severe AS with severe LV dysfunction and a low TVG remains controversial. METHODS: Between 1990 and 1998, we evaluated 68 patients who underwent AVR at our institution (AVR group) and 89 patients who did not undergo AVR (control group), with an aortic valve area < or = 0.75 cm(2), LV ejection fraction < or = 35% and mean gradient < or = 30 mm Hg. Using propensity analysis, survival was compared between a cohort of 39 patients in the AVR group and 56 patients in the control group. RESULTS: Despite well-matched baseline characteristics among propensity-matched patients, the one- and four-year survival rates were markedly improved in patients in the AVR group (82% and 78%), as compared with patients in the control group (41% and 15%; p < 0.0001). By multivariable analysis, the main predictor of improved survival was AVR (adjusted risk ratio 0.19, 95% confidence interval 0.09 to 0.39; p < 0.0001). The only other predictors of mortality were age and the serum creatinine level. CONCLUSIONS: Among select patients with severe AS, severe LV dysfunction and a low TVG, AVR was associated with significantly improved survival.

Nonparametric Bayesian inference for mean residual life functions in survival analysis.

PubMed

Poynor, Valerie; Kottas, Athanasios

2018-01-19

Modeling and inference for survival analysis problems typically revolves around different functions related to the survival distribution. Here, we focus on the mean residual life (MRL) function, which provides the expected remaining lifetime given that a subject has survived (i.e. is event-free) up to a particular time. This function is of direct interest in reliability, medical, and actuarial fields. In addition to its practical interpretation, the MRL function characterizes the survival distribution. We develop general Bayesian nonparametric inference for MRL functions built from a Dirichlet process mixture model for the associated survival distribution. The resulting model for the MRL function admits a representation as a mixture of the kernel MRL functions with time-dependent mixture weights. This model structure allows for a wide range of shapes for the MRL function. Particular emphasis is placed on the selection of the mixture kernel, taken to be a gamma distribution, to obtain desirable properties for the MRL function arising from the mixture model. The inference method is illustrated with a data set of two experimental groups and a data set involving right censoring. The supplementary material available at Biostatistics online provides further results on empirical performance of the model, using simulated data examples. © The Author 2018. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bilbao, Cristina, E-mail: cbilbao@dbbf.ulpgc.e; Department of Radiation Oncology, Hospital Universitario de Gran Canaria Dr. Negrin, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Canary Islands; Lara, Pedro Carlos

Purpose: To elucidate whether microsatellite instability (MSI) predicts clinical outcome in radiation-treated endometrioid endometrial cancer (EEC). Methods and Materials: A consecutive series of 93 patients with EEC treated with extrafascial hysterectomy and postoperative radiotherapy was studied. The median clinical follow-up of patients was 138 months, with a maximum of 232 months. Five quasimonomorphic mononucleotide markers (BAT-25, BAT-26, NR21, NR24, and NR27) were used for MSI classification. Results: Twenty-five patients (22%) were classified as MSI. Both in the whole series and in early stages (I and II), univariate analysis showed a significant association between MSI and poorer 10-year local disease-free survival,more » disease-free survival, and cancer-specific survival. In multivariate analysis, MSI was excluded from the final regression model in the whole series, but in early stages MSI provided additional significant predictive information independent of traditional prognostic and predictive factors (age, stage, grade, and vascular invasion) for disease-free survival (hazard ratio [HR] 3.25, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-10.49; p = 0.048) and cancer-specific survival (HR 4.20, 95% CI 1.23-14.35; p = 0.022) and was marginally significant for local disease-free survival (HR 3.54, 95% CI 0.93-13.46; p = 0.064). Conclusions: These results suggest that MSI may predict radiotherapy response in early-stage EEC.« less

A Multifactorial Analysis of Melanoma: Prognostic Histopathological Features Comparing Clark's and Breslow's Staging Methods

PubMed Central

Balch, Charles M.; Murad, Tariq M.; Soong, Seng-Jaw; Ingalls, Anna Lee; Halpern, Norman B.; Maddox, William A.

1978-01-01

A multifactorial analysis was used to identify the dominant prognostic variables affecting survival from a computerized data base of 339 melanoma patients treated at this institution during the past 17 years. Five of the 13 parameters examined simultaneously were found to independently influence five year survival rates: 1) pathological stage (I vs II, p = 0.0014), 2) lesion ulceration (present vs absent, p = 0.006), 3) surgical treatment (wide excision vs wide excision plus lymphadenectomy, p = 0.024), 4) melanoma thickness (p = 0.032), and 5) location (upper extremity vs lower extremity vs trunk vs head and neck, p = 0.038). Additional factors considered that had either indirect or no influence on survival rates were clinical stage of disease, age, sex, level of invasion, pigmentation, lymphocyte infiltration, growth pattern, and regression. Most of these latter variables derived their prognostic value from correlation with melanoma thickness, except sex which correlated with location (extremity lesions were more frequent on females, trunk lesions on males). This statistical analysis enabled us to derive a mathematical equation for predicting an individual patient's probability of five year survival. Three categories of risk were delineated by measuring tumor thickness (Breslow microstaging) in Stage I patients: 1) thin melanomas (<0.76 mm) were associated with localized disease and a 100% cure rate: 2) intermediate thickness melanomas (0.76-4.00 mm) had an increasing risk (up to 80%) of harboring regional and/or distant metastases and 3) thick melanomas (≥4.00 mm) had a 80% risk of occult distant metastases at the time of initial presentation. The level of invasion (Clark's microstaging) correlated with survival, but was less predictive than measuring tumor thickness. Within each of Clark's Level II, III and IV groups, there were gradations of thickness with statistically different survival rates. Both microstaging methods (Breslow and Clark) were less predictive factors in patients with lymph node or distant metastases. Clinical trials evaluating alternative surgical treatments or adjunctive therapy modalities for melanoma patients should incorporate these parameters into their assessment, especially in Stage I (localized) disease where tumor thickness and the anatomical site of the primary melanoma are dominant prognostic factors. PMID:736651

Secondary Analysis of RTOG 9508, a Phase 3 Randomized Trial of Whole-Brain Radiation Therapy Versus WBRT Plus Stereotactic Radiosurgery in Patients With 1-3 Brain Metastases; Poststratified by the Graded Prognostic Assessment (GPA)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sperduto, Paul W., E-mail: psperduto@mropa.com; Shanley, Ryan; Luo, Xianghua

2014-11-01

Purpose: Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) 9508 showed a survival advantage for patients with 1 but not 2 or 3 brain metastasis (BM) treated with whole-brain radiation therapy (WBRT) and stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) versus WBRT alone. An improved prognostic index, the graded prognostic assessment (GPA) has been developed. Our hypothesis was that if the data from RTOG 9508 were poststratified by the GPA, the conclusions may vary. Methods and Materials: In this analysis, 252 of the 331 patients were evaluable by GPA. Of those, 211 had lung cancer. Breast cancer patients were excluded because the components of the breast GPAmore » are not in the RTOG database. Multiple Cox regression was used to compare survival between treatment groups, adjusting for GPA. Treatment comparisons within subgroups were performed with the log-rank test. A free online tool ( (brainmetgpa.com)) simplified GPA use. Results: The fundamental conclusions of the primary analysis were confirmed in that there was no survival benefit overall for patients with 1 to 3 metastases; however, there was a benefit for the subset of patients with GPA 3.5 to 4.0 (median survival time [MST] for WBRT + SRS vs WBRT alone was 21.0 versus 10.3 months, P=.05) regardless of the number of metastases. Among patients with GPA 3.5 to 4.0 treated with WBRT and SRS, the MST for patients with 1 versus 2 to 3 metastases was 21 and 14.1 months, respectively. Conclusions: This secondary analysis of predominantly lung cancer patients, consistent with the original analysis, shows no survival advantage for the group overall when treated with WBRT and SRS; however, in patients with high GPA (3.5-4), there is a survival advantage regardless of whether they have 1, 2, or 3 BM. This benefit did not extend to patients with lower GPA. Prospective validation of this survival benefit for patients with multiple BM and high GPA when treated with WBRT and SRS is warranted.« less

Secondary Analysis of RTOG 9508, a Phase 3 Randomized Trial of Whole-Brain Radiation Therapy Versus WBRT Plus Stereotactic Radiosurgery in Patients With 1-3 Brain Metastases; Poststratified by the Graded Prognostic Assessment (GPA)

PubMed Central

Sperduto, Paul W.; Shanley, Ryan; Luo, Xianghua; Andrews, David; Werner-Wasik, Maria; Valicenti, Richard; Bahary, Jean-Paul; Souhami, Luis; Won, Minhee; Mehta, Minesh

2015-01-01

Purpose Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) 9508 showed a survival advantage for patients with 1 but not 2 or 3 brain metastasis (BM) treated with whole-brain radiation therapy (WBRT) and stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) versus WBRT alone. An improved prognostic index, the graded prognostic assessment (GPA) has been developed. Our hypothesis was that if the data from RTOG 9508 were poststratified by the GPA, the conclusions may vary. Methods and Materials In this analysis, 252 of the 331 patients were evaluable by GPA. Of those, 211 had lung cancer. Breast cancer patients were excluded because the components of the breast GPA are not in the RTOG database. Multiple Cox regression was used to compare survival between treatment groups, adjusting for GPA. Treatment comparisons within subgroups were performed with the log-rank test. A free online tool (brainmetgpa.com) simplified GPA use. Results The fundamental conclusions of the primary analysis were confirmed in that there was no survival benefit overall for patients with 1 to 3 metastases; however, there was a benefit for the subset of patients with GPA 3.5 to 4.0 (median survival time [MST] for WBRT + SRS vs WBRT alone was 21.0 versus 10.3 months, P = .05) regardless of the number of metastases. Among patients with GPA 3.5 to 4.0 treated with WBRT and SRS, the MST for patients with 1 versus 2 to 3 metastases was 21 and 14.1 months, respectively. Conclusions This secondary analysis of predominantly lung cancer patients, consistent with the original analysis, shows no survival advantage for the group overall when treated with WBRT and SRS; however, in patients with high GPA (3.5-4), there is a survival advantage regardless of whether they have 1, 2, or 3 BM. This benefit did not extend to patients with lower GPA. Prospective validation of this survival benefit for patients with multiple BM and high GPA when treated with WBRT and SRS is warranted. PMID:25304947

Randomized Clinical Trial Comparing Proton Beam Radiation Therapy with Transarterial Chemoembolization for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Results of an Interim Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bush, David A., E-mail: dbush@llu.edu; Smith, Jason C.; Slater, Jerry D.

2016-05-01

Purpose: To describe results of a planned interim analysis of a prospective, randomized clinical trial developed to compare treatment outcomes among patients with newly diagnosed hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods and Materials: Eligible subjects had either clinical or pathologic diagnosis of HCC and met either Milan or San Francisco transplant criteria. Patients were randomly assigned to transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) or to proton beam radiation therapy. Patients randomized to TACE received at least 1 TACE with additional TACE for persistent disease. Proton beam radiation therapy was delivered to all areas of gross disease to a total dose of 70.2 Gy in 15 daily fractionsmore » over 3 weeks. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival, with secondary endpoints of overall survival, local tumor control, and treatment-related toxicities as represented by posttreatment days of hospitalization. Results: At the time of this analysis 69 subjects were available for analysis. Of these, 36 were randomized to TACE and 33 to proton. Total days of hospitalization within 30 days of TACE/proton was 166 and 24 days, respectively (P<.001). Ten TACE and 12 proton patients underwent liver transplantation after treatment. Viable tumor identified in the explanted livers after TACE/proton averaged 2.4 and 0.9 cm, respectively. Pathologic complete response after TACE/proton was 10%/25% (P=.38). The 2-year overall survival for all patients was 59%, with no difference between treatment groups. Median survival time was 30 months (95% confidence interval 20.7-39.3 months). There was a trend toward improved 2-year local tumor control (88% vs 45%, P=.06) and progression-free survival (48% vs 31%, P=.06) favoring the proton beam treatment group. Conclusions: This interim analysis indicates similar overall survival rates for proton beam radiation therapy and TACE. There is a trend toward improved local tumor control and progression-free survival with proton beam. There are significantly fewer hospitalization days after proton treatment, which may indicate reduced toxicity with proton beam therapy.« less

Survivorship analysis of Cotrel-Dubousset instrumentation in idiopathic scoliosis.

PubMed

Bago, J; Ramirez, M; Pellise, F; Villanueva, C

2003-08-01

This study presents a survivorship analysis of Cotrel-Dubousset instrumentation in the surgical treatment of idiopathic scoliosis. Between 1987 and 1995, a total of 133 patients with idiopathic scoliosis received posterior spine fusion and instrumentation with the CD system at our center. The patients' mean age at surgery was 16.5 years (range 11-43 years). The magnitude of the thoracic scoliosis averaged 62.7 degrees (range 40 degrees -125 degrees ) and that of the lumbar curve was 58.8 degrees (range 40 degrees -100 degrees ). On average, 12.2 segments were fused (range 8-17) and, excluding the rods, 14.1 implants were set for each patient (range 10-21). Survivorship analysis was carried out using the Kaplan-Meier method. Implant removal was considered the terminal event, or "death". The effect of several variables on survival rate was determined with the Cox regression method. The patients remained in the study for 56.7 months (range 2-120 months). One-hundred and ten patients were withdrawn ("censored"): 90 "alive" (did not require repeat surgery and attended follow-up control in 1997) and 20 "lost" (did not attend control in 1997). Twenty-three patients attained the terminal event of implant removal for a variety of reasons: acute infection (three cases), late infection (ten cases), implant failure requiring revision (six cases) and local pain (four cases). The survival rate was 95.5% at 3 months, 94.7% at 6 months, 93.9% at 1 year, 91.5% at 2 years, 82.2% at 5 years and 76.5% at 10 years. The magnitude of the curves, total number of implants and number of fused segments did not correlate with survival probability. A positive correlation was found between survival rate and correction loss between surgery and last control. A survival rate of 76.5% at 10 years is unexpectedly low. Current data suggest that the incapacity to maintain correction after initial surgery plays a major roll in the long-term evolution of Cotrel-Dubousset instrumentation.

Platelet to lymphocyte ratio as a novel prognostic tool for gallbladder carcinoma

PubMed Central

Pang, Qing; Zhang, Ling-Qiang; Wang, Rui-Tao; Bi, Jian-Bin; Zhang, Jing-Yao; Qu, Kai; Liu, Su-Shun; Song, Si-Dong; Xu, Xin-Sen; Wang, Zhi-Xin; Liu, Chang

2015-01-01

AIM: To preliminarily investigate the prognostic significance of the platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in patients with gallbladder carcinoma (GBC). METHODS: Clinical data of 316 surgical GBC patients were analyzed retrospectively, and preoperative serum platelet and lymphocyte counts were used to calculate the PLR. The optimal cut-off value of the PLR for detecting death was determined by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The primary outcome was overall survival, which was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. The log-rank test was used to compare the differences in survival. Then, we conducted multivariate Cox analysis to assess the independent effect of the PLR on the survival of GBC patients. RESULTS: For the PLR, the area under the ROC curve was 0.620 (95%CI: 0.542-0.698, P = 0.040) in detecting death. The cut-off value for the PLR was determined to be 117.7, with 73.6% sensitivity and 53.2% specificity. The PLR was found to be significantly positively correlated with CA125 serum level, tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, and tumor differentiation. Univariate analysis identified carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), CA125 and CA199 levels, PLR, TNM stage, and the degree of differentiation as significant prognostic factors for GBC when they were expressed as binary data. Multivariate analysis showed that CA125 > 35 U/mL, CA199 > 39 U/mL, PLR ≥ 117.7, and TNM stage IV were independently associated with poor survival in GBC. When expressed as a continuous variable, the PLR was still an independent predictor for survival, with a hazard ratio of 1.018 (95%CI: 1.001-1.037 per 10-unit increase, P = 0.043). CONCLUSION: The PLR could be used as a simple, inexpensive, and valuable tool for predicting the prognosis of GBC patients. PMID:26074706

Predictors of survival of natural killer/T-cell lymphoma, nasal type, in a non-Asian population: a single cancer centre experience

PubMed Central

Vásquez, Jule; Serrano, Mariana; Lopez, Lourdes; Pacheco, Cristian; Quintana, Shirley

2016-01-01

Background Natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (NKTCL), part of T-cell and NK-cell neoplasms in the World Health Organisation (WHO) classification, is an aggressive lymphoma with poor prognosis more predominantly seen in Asian and South American countries. This study evaluates the factors associated with survival among patients with newly diagnosed NKTCL in Peru. Methods Information was abstracted from medical records (MR) for all NKTCL patients >13 years of age at the Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Neoplasicas (INEN) between 2002 and 2011. The estimate of the survival curves was performed by the Kaplan-Meier method, and the difference was computed by the log-rank test. Results Around 226 MR were reviewed, 153 met the selection criteria, the median age was 40 years (14–84). The median progression-free survival (PFS) was 20 months, five year PFS was 42.6%, univariable analysis (UA) showed statistical significance (p < 0.05) for male sex, non-nasal primary site, advanced clinical stages, B symptoms, poor performance status, regional nodal involvement (RNI). In the multivariate analysis the only poor prognostic factors was primary non-nasal (Hazard ratio (HR) = 2.40, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.43– 4.02, P = 0.01). The median overall survival (OS) was 49 months, five year OS was 48.9%, UA showed statistical significance for non-nasal primary site, advanced clinical stages, B symptoms, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) > normal, RNI and local tumour invasion. In the multivariate analysis, primary non-nasal was the only poor prognostic factor with HR = 2.57, 95% CI = 1.37–4.83, P = 0.03. Conclusions In Peru, OS of NKTCL is similar to other countries. This result suggests that non-nasal NKTCL is the only poor prognostic factor of OS and PFS. PMID:27994644

HIS-based Kaplan-Meier plots--a single source approach for documenting and reusing routine survival information.

PubMed

Breil, Bernhard; Semjonow, Axel; Müller-Tidow, Carsten; Fritz, Fleur; Dugas, Martin

2011-02-16

Survival or outcome information is important for clinical routine as well as for clinical research and should be collected completely, timely and precisely. This information is relevant for multiple usages including quality control, clinical trials, observational studies and epidemiological registries. However, the local hospital information system (HIS) does not support this documentation and therefore this data has to generated by paper based or spreadsheet methods which can result in redundantly documented data. Therefore we investigated, whether integrating the follow-up documentation of different departments in the HIS and reusing it for survival analysis can enable the physician to obtain survival curves in a timely manner and to avoid redundant documentation. We analysed the current follow-up process of oncological patients in two departments (urology, haematology) with respect to different documentation forms. We developed a concept for comprehensive survival documentation based on a generic data model and implemented a follow-up form within the HIS of the University Hospital Muenster which is suitable for a secondary use of these data. We designed a query to extract the relevant data from the HIS and implemented Kaplan-Meier plots based on these data. To re-use this data sufficient data quality is needed. We measured completeness of forms with respect to all tumour cases in the clinic and completeness of documented items per form as incomplete information can bias results of the survival analysis. Based on the form analysis we discovered differences and concordances between both departments. We identified 52 attributes from which 13 were common (e.g. procedures and diagnosis dates) and were used for the generic data model. The electronic follow-up form was integrated in the clinical workflow. Survival data was also retrospectively entered in order to perform survival and quality analyses on a comprehensive data set. Physicians are now able to generate timely Kaplan-Meier plots on current data. We analysed 1029 follow-up forms of 965 patients with survival information between 1992 and 2010. Completeness of forms was 60.2%, completeness of items ranges between 94.3% and 98.5%. Median overall survival time was 16.4 years; median event-free survival time was 7.7 years. It is feasible to integrate survival information into routine HIS documentation such that Kaplan-Meier plots can be generated directly and in a timely manner.

The effect of first chromosome long arm duplication on survival of endometrial carcinoma.

PubMed

Sever, Erman; Doğer, Emek; Çakıroğlu, Yiğit; Sünnetçi, Deniz; Çine, Naci; Savlı, Hakan; Yücesoy, İzzet

2014-12-01

The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of first chromosome long arm duplication (dup(1q)) in cases with endometrial carcinoma detected with array based comperative genomic hybridization (aCGH) on survival from the cancer. A total of 53 patients with the diagnosis of endometrial carcinom due to endometrial biopsy and who have been operated for this reason have been allocated in the study. Frozen section biopsy and staging surgery have been performed for all the cases. Samples obtained from the tumoral mass have been investigated for chromosomal aberrations with aCGH method. Kaplan-Meier and Cox-regression analysis have been performed for survival analysis. Among 53 cases with endometrial carcinomas, dup(1q) was diagnosed in 14 (26.4%) of the cases. For the patient group that has been followed-up for 24 months (3-33 months), dup(1q) (p=.01), optimal cytoreduction (p<.001), lymph node positivity (p=.006), tumor stage >1 (p=.006) and presence of high risk tumor were the factors that were associated with survival. Cox-regression analysis has revealed that optimal cytoreduction was the most important prognostic factor (p=.02). Presence of 1q duplication can be used as a prognostic factor in the preoperative period.

Outcome of transarterial chemoembolization-based multi-modal treatment in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma

PubMed Central

Song, Do Seon; Nam, Soon Woo; Bae, Si Hyun; Kim, Jin Dong; Jang, Jeong Won; Song, Myeong Jun; Lee, Sung Won; Kim, Hee Yeon; Lee, Young Joon; Chun, Ho Jong; You, Young Kyoung; Choi, Jong Young; Yoon, Seung Kew

2015-01-01

AIM: To investigate the efficacy and safety of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE)-based multimodal treatment in patients with large hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). METHODS: A total of 146 consecutive patients were included in the analysis, and their medical records and radiological data were reviewed retrospectively. RESULTS: In total, 119 patients received TACE-based multi-modal treatments, and the remaining 27 received conservative management. Overall survival (P < 0.001) and objective tumor response (P = 0.003) were significantly better in the treatment group than in the conservative group. After subgroup analysis, survival benefits were observed not only in the multi-modal treatment group compared with the TACE-only group (P = 0.002) but also in the surgical treatment group compared with the loco-regional treatment-only group (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis identified tumor stage (P < 0.001) and tumor type (P = 0.009) as two independent pre-treatment factors for survival. After adjusting for significant pre-treatment prognostic factors, objective response (P < 0.001), surgical treatment (P = 0.009), and multi-modal treatment (P = 0.002) were identified as independent post-treatment prognostic factors. CONCLUSION: TACE-based multi-modal treatments were safe and more beneficial than conservative management. Salvage surgery after successful downstaging resulted in long-term survival in patients with large, unresectable HCC. PMID:25741147

A Content Analysis of Online Suicide Notes: Attempted Suicide Versus Attempt Resulting in Suicide.

PubMed

Synnott, John; Ioannou, Maria; Coyne, Angela; Hemingway, Siobhan

2017-09-28

Fifty suicide notes of those who died by suicide and 50 suicide notes of those who survived their suicide attempt were analyzed using Smallest Space Analysis. The core of all suicide notes was discovered to be constructed with the use of four variables: saying goodbye to their audience, feelings of loneliness, method used to attempt suicide, and negative self-image. Furthermore, three different suicide note themes of those who died and three suicide note themes from those who survived were also identified. The analysis revealed that suicide note writers who died by their attempt were more likely to combine a dislike of themselves and a concern for loved ones. The implications of the work in terms of suicide prevention are discussed. © 2017 The American Association of Suicidology.

Statistics for Time-Series Spatial Data: Applying Survival Analysis to Study Land-Use Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Ninghua Nathan

2013-01-01

Traditional spatial analysis and data mining methods fall short of extracting temporal information from data. This inability makes their use difficult to study changes and the associated mechanisms of many geographic phenomena of interest, for example, land-use. On the other hand, the growing availability of land-change data over multiple time…

Racial Differences in Retention in Residential Substance Abuse Treatment: The Impact on African American Men

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooper, R. Lyle; MacMaster, Samuel; Rasch, Randolph

2010-01-01

Purpose: This study employed a static group comparison design with 106 men in residential treatment to examine the relationship of race to treatment retention. Methods: A retrospective analysis of retention, by race, including survival analysis, was undertaken. Results: Findings from the study indicated that (a) Caucasian men complete treatment…

Effectiveness of platinum-based adjuvant chemotherapy for muscle-invasive bladder cancer: A weighted propensity score analysis.

PubMed

Shimizu, Fumitaka; Muto, Satoru; Taguri, Masataka; Ieda, Takeshi; Tsujimura, Akira; Sakamoto, Yoshiro; Fujita, Kazuhiko; Okegawa, Takatsugu; Yamaguchi, Raizo; Horie, Shigeo

2017-05-01

To evaluate the clinical benefit of adjuvant platinum-based chemotherapy after radical cystectomy for muscle-invasive bladder cancer in routine clinical practice. The present observational study was carried out to compare the effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy versus observation post-radical cystectomy in patients with clinically muscle-invasive bladder cancer. Cancer-specific survival and overall survival between the adjuvant chemotherapy group and radical cystectomy alone group were compared using Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test. After adjusting for background factors using propensity score weighting, differences in cancer-specific survival and overall survival between these two groups were compared. Subgroup analyses by the pathological characteristics were carried out. In total, 322 patients were included in the present study. Of these, 23% received adjuvant chemotherapy post-radical cystectomy. Clinicopathological characteristics showed that patients in the adjuvant chemotherapy group were pathologically more advanced and were at higher risk than the radical cystectomy alone group. In the unadjusted population, although it is not significant, the adjuvant chemotherapy group had lower overall survival (3-year overall survival; 61.5% vs 73.6%, HR 1.33, P = 0.243, log-rank test, adjuvant chemotherapy vs radical cystectomy alone). In the weighted propensity score analysis, although it is not significant, the adjuvant chemotherapy group were superior to radical cystectomy alone groups (overall survival: HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.39-1.09, P = 0.099, log-rank test, adjuvant chemotherapy vs radical cystectomy alone). Subgroup analyses showed that adjuvant chemotherapy significantly reduced the hazard ratio of overall survival and cancer-specific survival in the ≥pT3, pN+, ly+ and v+ subgroups. Platinum-based adjuvant chemotherapy might be associated with increased cancer-specific survival and overall survival in patients with high-risk invasive bladder cancer. © 2017 The Japanese Urological Association.

Decontamination of materials contaminated with Bacillus anthracis and Bacillus thuringiensis Al Hakam spores using PES-Solid, a solid source of peracetic acid.

PubMed

Buhr, T L; Wells, C M; Young, A A; Minter, Z A; Johnson, C A; Payne, A N; McPherson, D C

2013-08-01

To develop test methods and evaluate survival of Bacillus anthracis Ames, B. anthracis ∆Sterne and B. thuringiensis Al Hakam spores after exposure to PES-Solid (a solid source of peracetic acid), including PES-Solid formulations with bacteriostatic surfactants. Spores (≥ 7 logs) were dried on seven different test materials and treated with three different PES-Solid formulations (or preneutralized controls) at room temperature for 15 min. There was either no spore survival or less than 1 log (<10 spores) of spore survival in 56 of 63 test combinations (strain, formulation and substrate). Less than 2.7 logs (<180 spores) survived in the remaining seven test combinations. The highest spore survival rates were seen on water-dispersible chemical agent resistant coating (CARC-W) and Naval ship topcoat (NTC). Electron microscopy and Coulter analysis showed that all spore structures were intact after spore inactivation with PES-Solid. Three PES-Solid formulations inactivated Bacillus spores that were dried on seven different materials. A test method was developed to show that PES-Solid formulations effectively inactivate Bacillus spores on different materials. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Time-resolved metabolomics analysis of individual differences during the early stage of lipopolysaccharide-treated rats.

PubMed

Dai, Die; Gao, Yiqiao; Chen, Jiaqing; Huang, Yin; Zhang, Zunjian; Xu, Fengguo

2016-10-03

Lipopolysaccharide (LPS) can lead to uncontrollable cytokine production and eventually cause fatal sepsis syndrome. Individual toxicity difference of LPS has been widely reported. In our study we observed that two thirds of the rats (24/36) died at a given dose of LPS, while the rest (12/36) survived. Tracking the dynamic metabolic change in survival and non-survival rats in the early stage may reveal new system information to understand the inter-individual variation in response to LPS. As the time-resolved datasets are very complex and no single method can elucidate the problem clearly and comprehensively, the static and dynamic metabolomics methods were employed in combination as cross-validation. Intriguingly, some common results have been observed. Lipids were the main different metabolites between survival and non-survival rats in pre-dose serum and in the early stage of infection with LPS. The LPS treatment led to S-adenosly-methionine and total cysteine individual difference in early stage, and subsequent significant perturbations in energy metabolism and oxidative stress. Furthermore, cytokine profiles were analyzed to identify potential biological associations between cytokines and specific metabolites. Our collective findings may provide some heuristic guidance for elucidating the underlying mechanism of individual difference in LPS-mediated disease.

Primary Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Thyroid: A Population-Based Analysis.

PubMed

Au, Joshua K; Alonso, Jose; Kuan, Edward C; Arshi, Armin; St John, Maie A

2017-07-01

Objectives To analyze the epidemiology and describe the prognostic indicators of patients with primary squamous cell carcinoma of the thyroid. Study Design and Setting Retrospective cohort study based on a national database. Methods The US National Cancer Institute's SEER registry (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) was reviewed for patients with primary squamous cell carcinoma of the thyroid from 1973 to 2012. Study variables included age, sex, race, tumor size, tumor grade, regional and distant metastases, and treatment modality. Survival measures included overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS). Results A total of 199 cases of primary squamous cell carcinoma of the thyroid were identified. Mean age at diagnosis was 68.1 years; 58.3% were female; and 79.4% were white. Following diagnosis, 46.3% of patients underwent surgery; 55.7%, radiation therapy; and 45.8%, surgery with radiation therapy. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated OS and DSS of 16% and 21% at 5 years, respectively. Median survival after diagnosis was 9.1 months. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that predictors of OS and DSS included age ( P < .001, P < .001, respectively), tumor grade ( P < .001, P = .001), and tumor size ( P < .001, P = .001). Surgical management was a predictor of OS but not DSS. Conclusion Squamous cell carcinoma of the thyroid is a rare malignancy with a very poor prognosis. Surgical resection confers an overall survival benefit. Age, tumor grade, and tumor size are predictors of OS and DSS.

Liver Transplantation for Fulminant Hepatic Failure

PubMed Central

Farmer, Douglas G.; Anselmo, Dean M.; Ghobrial, R. Mark; Yersiz, Hasan; McDiarmid, Suzanne V.; Cao, Carlos; Weaver, Michael; Figueroa, Jesus; Khan, Khurram; Vargas, Jorge; Saab, Sammy; Han, Steven; Durazo, Francisco; Goldstein, Leonard; Holt, Curtis; Busuttil, Ronald W.

2003-01-01

Objective To analyze outcomes after liver transplantation (LT) in patients with fulminant hepatic failure (FHF) with emphasis on pretransplant variables that can potentially help predict posttransplant outcome. Summary Background Data FHF is a formidable clinical problem associated with a high mortality rate. While LT is the treatment of choice for irreversible FHF, few investigations have examined pretransplant variables that can potentially predict outcome after LT. Methods A retrospective review was undertaken of all patients undergoing LT for FHF at a single transplant center. The median follow-up was 41 months. Thirty-five variables were analyzed by univariate and multivariate analysis to determine their impact on patient and graft survival. Results Two hundred four patients (60% female, median age 20.2 years) required urgent LT for FHF. Before LT, the majority of patients were comatose (76%), on hemodialysis (16%), and ICU-bound. The 1- and 5-year survival rates were 73% and 67% (patient) and 63% and 57% (graft). The primary cause of patient death was sepsis, and the primary cause of graft failure was primary graft nonfunction. Univariate analysis of pre-LT variables revealed that 19 variables predicted survival. From these results, multivariate analysis determined that the serum creatinine was the single most important prognosticator of patient survival. Conclusions This study, representing one of the largest published series on LT for FHF, demonstrates a long-term survival of nearly 70% and develops a clinically applicable and readily measurable set of pretransplant factors that determine posttransplant outcome. PMID:12724633

Assessing the Effects of Software Platforms on Volumetric Segmentation of Glioblastoma

PubMed Central

Dunn, William D.; Aerts, Hugo J.W.L.; Cooper, Lee A.; Holder, Chad A.; Hwang, Scott N.; Jaffe, Carle C.; Brat, Daniel J.; Jain, Rajan; Flanders, Adam E.; Zinn, Pascal O.; Colen, Rivka R.; Gutman, David A.

2017-01-01

Background Radiological assessments of biologically relevant regions in glioblastoma have been associated with genotypic characteristics, implying a potential role in personalized medicine. Here, we assess the reproducibility and association with survival of two volumetric segmentation platforms and explore how methodology could impact subsequent interpretation and analysis. Methods Post-contrast T1- and T2-weighted FLAIR MR images of 67 TCGA patients were segmented into five distinct compartments (necrosis, contrast-enhancement, FLAIR, post contrast abnormal, and total abnormal tumor volumes) by two quantitative image segmentation platforms - 3D Slicer and a method based on Velocity AI and FSL. We investigated the internal consistency of each platform by correlation statistics, association with survival, and concordance with consensus neuroradiologist ratings using ordinal logistic regression. Results We found high correlations between the two platforms for FLAIR, post contrast abnormal, and total abnormal tumor volumes (spearman’s r(67) = 0.952, 0.959, and 0.969 respectively). Only modest agreement was observed for necrosis and contrast-enhancement volumes (r(67) = 0.693 and 0.773 respectively), likely arising from differences in manual and automated segmentation methods of these regions by 3D Slicer and Velocity AI/FSL, respectively. Survival analysis based on AUC revealed significant predictive power of both platforms for the following volumes: contrast-enhancement, post contrast abnormal, and total abnormal tumor volumes. Finally, ordinal logistic regression demonstrated correspondence to manual ratings for several features. Conclusion Tumor volume measurements from both volumetric platforms produced highly concordant and reproducible estimates across platforms for general features. As automated or semi-automated volumetric measurements replace manual linear or area measurements, it will become increasingly important to keep in mind that measurement differences between segmentation platforms for more detailed features could influence downstream survival or radio genomic analyses. PMID:29600296

Double row equivalent for rotator cuff repair: A biomechanical analysis of a new technique.

PubMed

Robinson, Sean; Krigbaum, Henry; Kramer, Jon; Purviance, Connor; Parrish, Robin; Donahue, Joseph

2018-06-01

There are numerous configurations of double row fixation for rotator cuff tears however, there remains to be a consensus on the best method. In this study, we evaluated three different double-row configurations, including a new method. Our primary question is whether the new anchor and technique compares in biomechanical strength to standard double row techniques. Eighteen prepared fresh frozen bovine infraspinatus tendons were randomized to one of three groups including the New Double Row Equivalent, Arthrex Speedbridge and a transosseous equivalent using standard Stabilynx anchors. Biomechanical testing was performed on humeri sawbones and ultimate load, strain, yield strength, contact area, contact pressure, and a survival plots were evaluated. The new double row equivalent method demonstrated increased survival as well as ultimate strength at 415N compared to the remainder testing groups as well as equivalent contact area and pressure to standard double row techniques. This new anchor system and technique demonstrated higher survival rates and loads to failure than standard double row techniques. This data provides us with a new method of rotator cuff fixation which should be further evaluated in the clinical setting. Basic science biomechanical study.

Impact of involved field radiotherapy in partial response after doxorubicin-based chemotherapy for advanced aggressive non-Hodgkin's lymphoma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moser, Elizabeth C.; Kluin-Nelemans, Hanneke C.; Carde, Patrice

2006-11-15

Purpose: Whether salvage therapy in patients with advanced aggressive non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) in partial remission (PR) should consist of radiotherapy or autologous stem-cell transplantation (ASCT) is debatable. We evaluated the impact of radiotherapy on outcome in PR patients treated in four successive European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer trials for aggressive NHL. Patients and Methods: Records of 974 patients (1980-1999) were reviewed regarding initial response, final outcome, and type and timing of salvage treatment. After 8 cycles of doxorubicin-based chemotherapy, 227 NHL patients were in PR and treated: 114 received involved field radiotherapy, 16 ASCT, 93 second-line chemotherapy,more » and 4 were operated. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) after radiotherapy were estimated (Kaplan-Meier method) and compared with other treatments (log-rank). Impact on survival was evaluated by multivariate analysis (Cox proportional hazards model). Results: The median PFS in PR patients was 4.2 years and 48% remained progression-free at 5 years. Half of the PR patients converted to a complete remission. After conversion, survival was comparable to patients directly in complete remission. Radiotherapy resulted in better OS and PFS compared with other treatments, especially in patients with low to intermediate International Prognostic Index score, bulky disease, or nodal disease only. Correction by multivariate analysis for prognostic factors such as stage, bulky disease, and number of extranodal locations showed that radiotherapy was clearly the most significant factor affecting both OS and PFS. Conclusion: This retrospective analysis demonstrates that radiotherapy can be effective for patients in PR after fully dosed chemotherapy; assessment in a randomized trial (radiotherapy vs. ASCT) is justified.« less

Nomogram Prediction of Overall Survival After Curative Irradiation for Uterine Cervical Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seo, YoungSeok; Yoo, Seong Yul; Kim, Mi-Sook

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop a nomogram capable of predicting the probability of 5-year survival after radical radiotherapy (RT) without chemotherapy for uterine cervical cancer. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively analyzed 549 patients that underwent radical RT for uterine cervical cancer between March 1994 and April 2002 at our institution. Multivariate analysis using Cox proportional hazards regression was performed and this Cox model was used as the basis for the devised nomogram. The model was internally validated for discrimination and calibration by bootstrap resampling. Results: By multivariate regression analysis, the model showed that age, hemoglobin levelmore » before RT, Federation Internationale de Gynecologie Obstetrique (FIGO) stage, maximal tumor diameter, lymph node status, and RT dose at Point A significantly predicted overall survival. The survival prediction model demonstrated good calibration and discrimination. The bootstrap-corrected concordance index was 0.67. The predictive ability of the nomogram proved to be superior to FIGO stage (p = 0.01). Conclusions: The devised nomogram offers a significantly better level of discrimination than the FIGO staging system. In particular, it improves predictions of survival probability and could be useful for counseling patients, choosing treatment modalities and schedules, and designing clinical trials. However, before this nomogram is used clinically, it should be externally validated.« less

Cryosurgery would be An Effective Option for Clinically Localized Prostate Cancer: A Meta-analysis and Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Gao, Liang; Yang, Lu; Qian, Shengqiang; Tang, Zhuang; Qin, Feng; Wei, Qiang; Han, Ping; Yuan, Jiuhong

2016-01-01

Cryosurgery (CS) has been used on patients with clinically localized PCa for more than 10 years. However, clinical studies evaluating its effectiveness and safety have reported conflicting results. This systematic assessment was performed to obtain comprehensive evidence regarding the potential benefits and safety of CS compared with those of radiotherapy (RT) and radical prostatectomy (RP), respectively. All controlled trials comparing CS with RT or RP and single-arm studies reporting results of CS therapy were identified through comprehensive searches of PubMed, the Cochrane Library and Embase. Ten publications from seven trials, with totally 1252 patients, were included in the meta-analysis, which revealed no significant differences in comparisons of CS vs RT and CS vs RP for overall survival and disease specific survival. However, a significantly lower disease-free survival could be observed for CS than RP. Moreover, a systematic review of literature focusing on comparative data of databases and materials of single-arm trials revealed satisfactory survival results in both primary and salvage CS. Our results showed that cryosurgery would be a relatively effective method for clinically localized prostate cancer with survival results comparable to radiotherapy and radical prostatectomy. However, the large percentage of complications caused by cryosurgery should be carefully monitored. PMID:27271239

A multi-year analysis of spillway survival for juvenile salmonids as a function of spill bay operations at McNary Dam, Washington and Oregon, 2004-09

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adams, Noah S.; Hansel, Hal C.; Perry, Russell W.; Evans, Scott D.

2012-01-01

We analyzed 6 years (2004-09) of passage and survival data collected at McNary Dam to examine how spill bay operations affect survival of juvenile salmonids passing through the spillway at McNary Dam. We also examined the relations between spill bay operations and survival through the juvenile fish bypass in an attempt to determine if survival through the bypass is influenced by spill bay operations. We used a Cormack-Jolly-Seber release-recapture model (CJS model) to determine how the survival of juvenile salmonids passing through McNary Dam relates to spill bay operations. Results of these analyses, while not designed to yield predictive models, can be used to help develop dam-operation strategies that optimize juvenile salmonid survival. For example, increasing total discharge typically had a positive effect on both spillway and bypass survival for all species except sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka). Likewise, an increase in spill bay discharge improved spillway survival for yearling Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), and an increase in spillway discharge positively affected spillway survival for juvenile steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss). The strong linear relation between increased spill and increased survival indicates that increasing the amount of water through the spillway is one strategy that could be used to improve spillway survival for yearling Chinook salmon and juvenile steelhead. However, increased spill did not improve spillway survival for subyearling Chinook salmon and sockeye salmon. Our results indicate that a uniform spill pattern would provide the highest spillway survival and bypass survival for subyearling Chinook salmon. Conversely, a predominantly south spill pattern provided the highest spillway survival for yearling Chinook salmon and juvenile steelhead. Although spill pattern was not a factor for spillway survival of sockeye salmon, spill bay operations that optimize passage through the north and south spill bays maximized spillway survival for this species. Bypass survival of yearling Chinook salmon could be improved by optimizing conditions to facilitate bypass passage at night, but the method to do so is not apparent from this analysis because photoperiod was the only factor affecting bypass survival based on the best and only supported model. Bypass survival of juvenile steelhead would benefit from lower water temperatures and increased total and spillway discharge. Likewise, subyearling Chinook salmon bypass survival would improve with lower water temperatures, increased total discharge, and a uniform spill pattern.

Characteristics and outcomes of patients with Ewing sarcoma over 40 years of age at diagnosis.

PubMed

Karski, Erin E; Matthay, Katherine K; Neuhaus, John M; Goldsby, Robert E; Dubois, Steven G

2013-02-01

The peak incidence of Ewing sarcoma (EWS) is in adolescence, with little known about patients who are ≥40 years at diagnosis. We describe the clinical characteristics and survival of this rare group. This retrospective cohort study utilized the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database. 2780 patients were identified; including 383 patients diagnosed ≥40 years. Patient characteristics between age groups were compared using chi-squared tests. Survival from diagnosis to death was estimated via Kaplan-Meier methods, compared with log-rank tests, and modeled using multivariable Cox methods. A competing risks analysis was performed to evaluate death due to cancer. Patients ≥40 years of age were more likely to have extra-skeletal tumors (66.1% vs. 31.7%; p < 0.001), axial tumors (64.0% vs. 57.2%; p = 0.01), and metastatic disease at diagnosis (35.5% vs. 30.0%; p = 0.04) compared to younger patients. Five-year survival for those age ≥40 and age <40 were 40.6% and 54.3%, respectively (p < 0.0001). A Cox multivariable model controlling for differences between groups confirmed inferior survival for older patients (hazard ratio for death of 2.04; 95% CI 1.63-2.54; p < 0.0001); though treatment data were unavailable and not controlled for in the model. A competing risks analysis confirmed increased risk of cancer-related death in older patients. Patients ≥40 years at diagnosis with EWS are more likely to have extra-skeletal tumors, metastatic disease, and axial primary tumors suggesting a difference in tumor biology. Independent of differences in these characteristics, older patients also have a lower survival rate. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Serum Prognostic Biomarkers in Head and Neck Cancer Patients

PubMed Central

Lin, Ho-Sheng; Siddiq, Fauzia; Talwar, Harvinder S.; Chen, Wei; Voichita, Calin; Draghici, Sorin; Jeyapalan, Gerald; Chatterjee, Madhumita; Fribley, Andrew; Yoo, George H.; Sethi, Seema; Kim, Harold; Sukari, Ammar; Folbe, Adam J.; Tainsky, Michael A.

2014-01-01

Objectives/Hypothesis A reliable estimate of survival is important as it may impact treatment choice. The objective of this study is to identify serum autoantibody biomarkers that can be used to improve prognostication for patients affected with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Study Design Prospective cohort study. Methods A panel of 130 serum biomarkers, previously selected for cancer detection using microarray-based serological profiling and specialized bioinformatics, were evaluated for their potential as prognostic biomarkers in a cohort of 119 HNSCC patients followed for up to 12.7 years. A biomarker was considered positive if its reactivity to the particular patient’s serum was greater than one standard deviation above the mean reactivity to sera from the other 118 patients, using a leave-one-out cross-validation model. Survival curves were estimated according to the Kaplan-Meier method, and statistically significant differences in survival were examined using the log rank test. Independent prognostic biomarkers were identified following analysis using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. Results Poor overall survival was associated with African Americans (hazard ratio [HR] for death =2.61; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.58–4.33; P =.000), advanced stage (HR =2.79; 95% CI: 1.40–5.57; P =.004), and recurrent disease (HR =6.66; 95% CI: 2.54–17.44; P =.000). On multivariable Cox analysis adjusted for covariates (race and stage), six of the 130 markers evaluated were found to be independent prognosticators of overall survival. Conclusions The results shown here are promising and demonstrate the potential use of serum biomarkers for prognostication in HNSCC patients. Further clinical trials to include larger samples of patients across multiple centers may be warranted. PMID:24347532

First recovery in anorexia nervosa patients in the long-term course: a discrete-time survival analysis.

PubMed

Herzog, W; Schellberg, D; Deter, H C

1997-02-01

The results of a 12-year follow-up study of occurrence and timing of first recovery in 69 hospitalized patients with severe anorexia nervosa (AN) are presented. For the first time discrete-time survival analysis methods were used to determine the likelihood of recovery in AN patients. Furthermore, predictors gleaned from pretreatment-posttreatment studies of long-term outcome in AN could be evaluated as to their effect on a change in the time course structure of the likelihood of first recovery. Results show that AN condition did not improve until after 6 years after the first inpatient treatment in 50% of patients. However, a restricter-type AN and low serum creatinine levels were predictors for earlier recovery. One specific effect was that AN patients who show purging behavior in combination with additional social disturbances have a lower chance of recovering. The use of discrete-time survival analysis methodology in further prospective studies will contribute to the development of more tailored treatment of AN, which also takes the individual phase of illness and specific aspects of the symptomatology into account.

Is Mistletoe Treatment Beneficial in Invasive Breast Cancer? A New Approach to an Unresolved Problem.

PubMed

Fritz, Peter; Dippon, Jürgen; Müller, Simon; Goletz, Sven; Trautmann, Christian; Pappas, Xenophon; Ott, German; Brauch, Hiltrud; Schwab, Matthias; Winter, Stefan; Mürdter, Thomas; Brinkmann, Friedhelm; Faisst, Simone; Rössle, Susanne; Gerteis, Andreas; Friedel, Godehard

2018-03-01

In this retrospective study, we compared breast cancer patients treated with and without mistletoe lectin I (ML-I) in addition to standard breast cancer treatment in order to determine a possible effect of this complementary treatment. This study included 18,528 patients with invasive breast cancer. Data on additional ML-I treatments were reported for 164 patients. We developed a "similar case" method with a distance measure retrieved from the beta variable in Cox regression to compare these patients, after stage adjustment, with their non-ML-1 treated counterparts in order to answer three hypotheses concerning overall survival, recurrence free survival and life quality. Raw data analysis of an additional ML-I treatment yielded a worse outcome (p=0.02) for patients with ML treatment, possibly due to a bias inherent in the ML-I-treated patients. Using the "similar case" method (a case-based reasoning approach) we could not confirm this harm for patients using ML-I. Analysis of life quality data did not demonstrate reliable differences between patients treated with ML-I treatment and those without proven ML-I treatment. Based on a "similar case" model we did not observe any differences in the overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), and quality of life data between breast cancer patients with standard treatment and those who in addition to standard treatment received ML-I treatment. Copyright© 2018, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.

Socratic Method for the Right Reasons and in the Right Way: Lessons from Teaching Legal Analysis beyond the American Law School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Szypszak, Charles

2015-01-01

Socratic method is associated with law school teaching by which students are asked questions in class that require them to analyze cases and derive legal principles. Despite the method's potential benefits, students usually do not view it as supportive and enriching but rather as a kind of survival ritual. As a pedagogical approach for use in any…

Efficacy of Nucleot(s)ide Analogs Therapy in Patients with Unresectable HBV-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

He, Lingling; Liu, Xiaoli; Zhao, Yalin; Zhang, Shuan; Jiang, Yuyong; Wang, Xianbo; Yang, Zhiyun

2017-01-01

Aim . To determine whether nucleot(s)ide analogs therapy has survival benefit for patients with HBV-related HCC after unresectable treatment. Method . A systematic search was conducted through seven electronic databases including PubMed, OVID, EMBASE, Cochrane Databases, Elsevier, Wiley Online Library, and BMJ Best Practice. All studies comparing NA combined with unresectable treatment versus unresectable treatment alone were considered for inclusion. The primary outcome was the overall survival (OS) after unresectable treatment for patients with HBV-related HCC. The secondary outcome was the progression-free survival (PFS). Results were expressed as hazard ratio (HR) for survival with 95% confidence intervals. Results . We included six studies with 994 patients: 409 patients in nucleot(s)ide analogs therapy group and 585 patients without antiviral therapy in control group. There were significant improvements for the overall survival (HR = 0.57; 95% CI = 0.47-0.70; p < 0.001) and progression-free survival (HR = 0.84; 95% CI = 0.71-0.99; p = 0.034) in the NA-treated group compared with the control group. Funnel plot showed that there was no significant publication bias in these studies. When it comes to antiviral drugs and operation method, it also showed benefit in NA-treated group. At the same time, overall mortality as well as mortality secondary to liver failure in NA-treated group was obviously lesser. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the results. Conclusions . Nucleot(s)ide analogs therapy after unresectable treatment has potential beneficial effects in terms of overall survival and progression-free survival. NA therapy should be considered in clinical practice.

Treatment, Outcomes, and Clinical Trial Participation in Elderly Patients With Metastatic Pancreas Adenocarcinoma

PubMed Central

Li, Daneng; Capanu, Marinela; Yu, Kenneth H.; Lowery, Maeve A.; Kelsen, David P.; O’Reilly, Eileen M.

2016-01-01

Studies on the treatment patterns and outcomes of elderly patients with metastatic pancreas cancer remain limited. Therefore, an analysis of systemic therapy use, clinical trial participation, and outcomes in elderly patients with metastatic pancreas cancer was performed at our institution. Elderly patients who received systemic therapy had a longer survival compared with those who did not. However, therapeutic clinical trial participation was low and should be encouraged Background Pancreas adenocarcinoma has a median age at diagnosis of 71 years. Limited studies have focused on the treatment of elderly patients with pancreas cancer. Patients and Methods An analysis of systemic therapy use, clinical trial participation, and overall outcomes of 237 patients with metastatic pancreas adenocarcinoma ≥ 75 years of age evaluated at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center between 2005 and 2013 was undertaken. Results Median overall survival was 7 months for the entire study population. A total of 197 (83%) patients received systemic therapy, which was significantly associated with longer overall survival (P < .01). No significant difference was detected in survival between age groups 75 to 79, 80 to 84, and ≥ 85 years of age among those who received systemic therapy (P = .49). Seventy-seven (32%) patients participated in a clinical trial of whom 13 (5%) patients were enrolled in a therapeutic trial, including no patients aged ≥ 85 years. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that presence of liver metastases (P < .001), performance status (P < .001), and number of systemic agents (P < .001) were significantly associated with survival. Conclusion Receipt of systemic therapy was associated with longer survival in elderly patients ≥ 75 years of age with metastatic pancreas adenocarcinoma. Therapeutic clinical trial participation among these patients was low and future development of prognostic models for appropriate patient selection is warranted. PMID:26072442

Lean Body Mass Predicts Long-Term Survival in Chinese Patients on Peritoneal Dialysis

PubMed Central

Huang, Jenq-Wen; Lien, Yu-Chung; Wu, Hon-Yen; Yen, Chung-Jen; Pan, Chun-Chun; Hung, Tsai-Wei; Su, Chi-Ting; Chiang, Chih-Kang; Cheng, Hui-Teng; Hung, Kuan-Yu

2013-01-01

Background Reduced lean body mass (LBM) is one of the main indicators in malnutrition inflammation syndrome among patients on dialysis. However, the influence of LBM on peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients’ outcomes and the factors related to increasing LBM are seldom reported. Methods We enrolled 103 incident PD patients between 2002 and 2003, and followed them until December 2011. Clinical characteristics, PD-associated parameters, residual renal function, and serum chemistry profiles of each patient were collected at 1 month and 1 year after initiating PD. LBM was estimated using creatinine index corrected with body weight. Multiple linear regression analysis, Kaplan–Meier survival analysis, and Cox regression proportional hazard analysis were used to define independent variables and compare survival between groups. Results Using the median LBM value (70% for men and 64% for women), patients were divided into group 1 (n = 52; low LBM) and group 2 (n = 51; high LBM). Group 1 patients had higher rates of peritonitis (1.6 vs. 1.1/100 patient months; p<0.05) and hospitalization (14.6 vs. 9.7/100 patient months; p<0.05). Group 1 patients also had shorter overall survival and technique survival (p<0.01). Each percentage point increase in LBM reduced the hazard ratio for mortality by 8% after adjustment for diabetes, age, sex, and body mass index (BMI). Changes in residual renal function and protein catabolic rate were independently associated with changes in LBM in the first year of PD. Conclusions LBM serves as a good parameter in addition to BMI to predict the survival of patients on PD. Preserving residual renal function and increasing protein intake can increase LBM. PMID:23372806

Impact of Resection Margin Distance on Survival of Pancreatic Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Kim, Kyung Su; Kwon, Jeanny; Kim, Kyubo; Chie, Eui Kyu

2017-01-01

Purpose While curative resection is the only chance of cure in pancreatic cancer, controversies exist about the impact of surgical margin status on survival. Non-standardized pathologic report and different criteria on the R1 status made it difficult to implicate adjuvant therapy after resection based on the margin status. We evaluated the influence of resection margins on survival by meta-analysis. Materials and Methods We thoroughly searched electronic databases of PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library. We included studies reporting survival outcomes with different margin status: involved margin (R0 mm), margin clearance with ≤ 1 mm (R0-1 mm), and margin with > 1 mm (R>1 mm). Hazard ratio (HR) for overall survival was extracted, and a random-effects model was used for pooled analysis. Results A total of eight retrospective studies involving 1,932 patients were included. Pooled HR for overall survival showed that patients with R>1 mm had reduced risk of death than those with R0-1 mm (HR, 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.61 to 0.88; p=0.001). In addition, patients with R0-1 mm had reduced risk of death than those with R0 mm (HR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.72 to 0.91; p < 0.001). There was no heterogeneity between the included studies (I2 index, 42% and 0%; p=0.10 and p=0.82, respectively). Conclusion Our results suggest that stratification of the patients based on margin status is warranted in the clinical trials assessing the role of adjuvant treatment for pancreatic cancer. PMID:27561314

BRAF Mutation is Associated with an Improved Survival in Glioma-a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Vuong, Huy Gia; Altibi, Ahmed M A; Duong, Uyen N P; Ngo, Hanh T T; Pham, Thong Quang; Fung, Kar-Ming; Hassell, Lewis

2018-05-01

Newly emerged molecular markers in gliomas provide prognostic values beyond the capabilities of histologic classification. BRAF mutation, especially BRAF V600E, is common in a subset of gliomas and may represent a potential prognostic marker. The aim of our study is to investigate the potential use of BRAF mutations on prognosis of glioma patients. Four electronic databases were searched for potential articles, including PubMed, Scopus, ISI Web of Science, and Virtual Health Library (VHL). Data of hazard ratio (HR) for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were directly obtained from original papers or indirectly estimated from Kaplan Meier curve (KMC). A random effect model weighted by inverse variance method was used to calculate the pooled HR. From 705 articles, we finally included 11 articles with 1308 glioma patients for the final analysis. The overall estimates showed that BRAF V600E was associated with an improved overall survival (OS) in glioma patients (HR = 0.60; 95% CI = 0.44-0.80). Results for progression-free survival (PFS), however, were not statistically significant (HR = 1.39; 95% CI = 0.82-2.34). In subgroup analyses, BRAF V600E showed its effect in improving survival in pediatric and young adult gliomas (under 35 years) but did not have prognostic value in old adult. Additionally, BRAF V600E was only associated with a favorable prognosis in lower grade glioma. Our meta-analysis provides evidence that BRAF mutation has a favorable prognostic impact in gliomas and its prognostic value might be dependent on patient age and tumor grade. This mutation can be used as a prognostic factor in glioma but additional studies are required to clarify its prognostic value taking into account other confounding factors.

Radiotherapy Improves Survival in Unresected Stage I-III Bronchoalveolar Carcinoma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Urban, Damien; Mishra, Mark; Onn, Amir

2012-11-01

Purpose: To test the hypothesis that radiotherapy (RT) improves the outcome of patients with unresected, nonmetastatic bronchoalveolar carcinoma (BAC) by performing a population-based analysis within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry. Methods and Materials: Inclusion criteria were as follows: patients diagnosed with BAC, Stage I-III, between 2001 and 2007. Exclusion criteria included unknown stage, unknown primary treatment modality, Stage IV disease, and those diagnosed at autopsy. Demographic data, treatment details, and overall survival were retrieved from the SEER database. Survival was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test. Results: A total of 6933 patients with Stage I-IIImore » BAC were included in the analysis. The median age at diagnosis was 70 years (range, 10-101 years). The majority of patients were diagnosed with Stage I (74.4%); 968 patients (14%) did not undergo surgical resection. Unresected patients were more likely to be older (p < 0.0001), male (p = 0.001), black (p < 0.0001), and Stage III (p < 0.0001). Within the cohort of unresected patients, 300 (31%) were treated with RT. The estimated 2-year overall survival for patients with unresected, nonmetastatic BAC was 58%, 44%, and 27% in Stage I, II, and III, respectively. Factors associated with improved survival included female sex, earlier stage at diagnosis, and use of RT. Median survival in those not receiving RT vs. receiving RT was as follows: Stage I, 28 months vs. 33 months (n = 364, p = 0.06); Stage II, 18 months vs. not reached (n = 31, nonsignificant); Stage III, 10 months vs. 17 months (n = 517, p < 0.003). Conclusions: The use of RT is associated with improved prognosis in unresected Stage I-III BAC. Less than a third of patients who could have potentially benefited from RT received it, suggesting that the medical specialists involved in the care of these patients underappreciate the importance of RT.« less

Proposed Staging System for Patients With HPV-Related Oropharyngeal Cancer Based on Nasopharyngeal Cancer N Categories

PubMed Central

Dahlstrom, Kristina R.; Garden, Adam S.; William, William N.; Lim, Ming Yann

2016-01-01

Purpose Patients with human papillomavirus (HPV)–related oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) generally present with more advanced disease but have better survival than patients with HPV-unrelated OPC. The current American Joint Commission on Cancer (AJCC)/Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) TNM staging system for OPC was developed for HPV-unrelated OPC. A new staging system is needed to adequately predict outcomes of patients with HPV-related OPC. Patients and Methods Patients with newly diagnosed HPV-positive OPC (by p16 immunohistochemistry or in situ hybridization) treated at our institution from January 2003 through December 2012 were included. By using recursive partitioning analysis (RPA), we developed new stage groupings with both traditional OPC regional lymph node (N) categories and nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) N categories. Survival was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method, and the relationship between stage and survival was examined by using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Results A total of 661 patients with HPV-positive OPC met the inclusion criteria. With the traditional TNM staging system, there was no difference in survival between stages (P = .141). RPA with NPC N categories resulted in more balanced stage groups and better separation between groups for 5-year survival than RPA with traditional OPC N categories. With the stage groupings that were based in part on NPC N categories, the risk of death increased with increasing stage (P for trend < .001), and patients with stage III disease had five times the risk of death versus patients with stage IA disease. Conclusion New stage groupings that are based on primary tumor (T) categories and NPC N categories better separate patients with HPV-positive OPC with respect to survival than does the current AJCC/UICC TNM staging system. Although confirmation of our findings in other patient populations is needed, we propose consideration of NPC N categories as an alternative to the traditional OPC N categories in the new AJCC/UICC TNM staging system that is currently being developed. PMID:26884553

Clinical Study of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Treated by Helical Tomotherapy in China: 5-Year Outcomes

PubMed Central

Du, Lei; Zhang, Xin-Xin; Ma, Lin; Feng, Lin-Chun; Li, Fang; Zhou, Gui-Xia; Qu, Bao-Lin; Xu, Shou-Ping; Xie, Chuan-Bin; Yang, Jack

2014-01-01

Background. To evaluate the outcomes of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients treated with helical tomotherapy (HT). Methods. Between September 2007 and August 2012, 190 newly diagnosed NPC patients were treated with HT. Thirty-one patients were treated with radiation therapy as single modality, 129 with additional cisplatin-based chemotherapy with or without anti-EGFR monoclonal antibody therapy, and 30 with concurrent anti-EGFR monoclonal antibody therapy. Results. Acute radiation related side effects were mainly grade 1 or 2. Grade 3 and greater toxicities were rarely noted. The median followup was 32 (3–38) months. The local relapse-free survival (LRFS), nodal relapse-free survival (NRFS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), and overall survival (OS) were 96.1%, 98.2%, 92.0%, and 86.3%, respectively, at 3 years. Cox multivariate regression analysis showed that age and T stage were independent predictors for 3-year OS. Conclusions. Helical tomotherapy for NPC patients achieved excellent 3-year locoregional control, distant metastasis-free survival, and overall survival, with relatively minor acute and late toxicities. Age and T stage were the main prognosis factors. PMID:25114932

Impact of hemodialysis dose and frequency on survival of patients on chronic hemodialysis in Lithuania during 1998-2005.

PubMed

Stankuvienė, Asta; Ziginskienė, Edita; Kuzminskis, Vytautas; Bumblytė, Inga Arūnė

2010-01-01

The question of the targets of dialysis dosing remains controversial since the beginning of the long-term dialysis treatment era. It is still uncertain if higher dialysis dose is better. The aim of our study was to investigate issues of dialysis dose in Lithuania during the period of 1998-2005 and to determine associations between hemodialysis dose and survival of patients on chronic hemodialysis. We analyzed data of all patients who started hemodialysis due to end-stage renal disease in Lithuania between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2005. The information about hemodialysis frequency, duration, and adequacy (according to Kt/V) was obtained from medical documentation. The overall survival rate was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Survival comparisons were made using the log-rank or Breslow tests. Univariate Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to select variables significantly associated with the risk of death; then these variables were included in multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. During the study period, from 2428 patients who started chronic hemodialysis, 58.5% of patients started hemodialysis three times a week. More than one-third (36.2%) of patients were dialyzed twice weekly, and 5.3% of patients started hemodialysis once weekly. Survival analysis revealed that patients dialyzed less than three times per week survived shorter than patients receiving a higher dialysis dose. Duration of HD session of ≤8 hours per week was an independent risk factor for mortality. A higher mean Kt/V was associated with better survival of patients on chronic hemodialysis. Dialysis frequency and weekly duration of HD sessions were dependent on HD accessibility in Lithuania during the period of 1998-2005. Better survival of patients on chronic hemodialysis was associated with a higher hemodialysis dose.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vern-Gross, Tamara Z.; Shivnani, Anand T., E-mail: Anand.Shivnani@usoncology.com; Chen, Ke

Purpose: The benefit of adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) after surgical resection for extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma has not been clearly established. We analyzed survival outcomes of patients with resected extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma and examined the effect of adjuvant RT. Methods and Materials: Data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program between 1973 and 2003. The primary endpoint was the overall survival time. Cox regression analysis was used to perform univariate and multivariate analyses of the following clinical variables: age, year of diagnosis, histologic grade, localized (Stage T1-T2) vs. regional (Stage T3 or greater and/or node positive) stage, gender, race, andmore » the use of adjuvant RT after surgical resection. Results: The records for 2,332 patients were obtained. Patients with previous malignancy, distant disease, incomplete or conflicting records, atypical histologic features, and those treated with preoperative/intraoperative RT were excluded. Of the remaining 1,491 patients eligible for analysis, 473 (32%) had undergone adjuvant RT. After a median follow-up of 27 months (among surviving patients), the median overall survival time for the entire cohort was 20 months. Patients with localized and regional disease had a median survival time of 33 and 18 months, respectively (p < .001). The addition of adjuvant RT was not associated with an improvement in overall or cause-specific survival for patients with local or regional disease. Conclusion: Patients with localized disease had significantly better overall survival than those with regional disease. Adjuvant RT was not associated with an improvement in long-term overall survival in patients with resected extrahepatic bile duct cancer. Key data, including margin status and the use of combined chemotherapy, was not available through the SEER database.« less

Using Survival Analysis to Improve Estimates of Life Year Gains in Policy Evaluations.

PubMed

Meacock, Rachel; Sutton, Matt; Kristensen, Søren Rud; Harrison, Mark

2017-05-01

Policy evaluations taking a lifetime horizon have converted estimated changes in short-term mortality to expected life year gains using general population life expectancy. However, the life expectancy of the affected patients may differ from the general population. In trials, survival models are commonly used to extrapolate life year gains. The objective was to demonstrate the feasibility and materiality of using parametric survival models to extrapolate future survival in health care policy evaluations. We used our previous cost-effectiveness analysis of a pay-for-performance program as a motivating example. We first used the cohort of patients admitted prior to the program to compare 3 methods for estimating remaining life expectancy. We then used a difference-in-differences framework to estimate the life year gains associated with the program using general population life expectancy and survival models. Patient-level data from Hospital Episode Statistics was utilized for patients admitted to hospitals in England for pneumonia between 1 April 2007 and 31 March 2008 and between 1 April 2009 and 31 March 2010, and linked to death records for the period from 1 April 2007 to 31 March 2011. In our cohort of patients, using parametric survival models rather than general population life expectancy figures reduced the estimated mean life years remaining by 30% (9.19 v. 13.15 years, respectively). However, the estimated mean life year gains associated with the program are larger using survival models (0.380 years) compared to using general population life expectancy (0.154 years). Using general population life expectancy to estimate the impact of health care policies can overestimate life expectancy but underestimate the impact of policies on life year gains. Using a longer follow-up period improved the accuracy of estimated survival and program impact considerably.

Marital status and survival of patients with oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma: a population-based study.

PubMed

Shi, Xiao; Zhang, Ting-Ting; Hu, Wei-Ping; Ji, Qing-Hai

2017-04-25

The relationship between marital status and oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC) survival has not been explored. The objective of our study was to evaluate the impact of marital status on OCSCC survival and investigate the potential mechanisms. Married patients had better 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) (66.7% vs 54.9%) and 5-year overall survival (OS) (56.0% vs 41.1%). In multivariate Cox regression models, unmarried patients also showed higher mortality risk for both CSS (Hazard Ratio [HR]: 1.260, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.187-1.339, P < 0.001) and OS (HR: 1.328, 95% CI: 1.266-1.392, P < 0.001). Multivariate logistic regression showed married patients were more likely to be diagnosed at earlier stage (P < 0.001) and receive surgery (P < 0.001). Married patients still demonstrated better prognosis in the 1:1 matched group analysis (CSS: 62.9% vs 60.8%, OS: 52.3% vs 46.5%). 11022 eligible OCSCC patients were identified from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, including 5902 married and 5120 unmarried individuals. Kaplan-Meier analysis, Log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards regression model were used to analyze survival and mortality risk. Influence of marital status on stage, age at diagnosis and selection of treatment was determined by binomial and multinomial logistic regression. Propensity score matching method was adopted to perform a 1:1 matched cohort. Marriage has an independently protective effect on OCSCC survival. Earlier diagnosis and more sufficient treatment are possible explanations. Besides, even after 1:1 matching, survival advantage of married group still exists, indicating that spousal support from other aspects may also play an important role.

Outcomes associated with amiodarone and lidocaine in the treatment of in-hospital pediatric cardiac arrest with pulse less ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation☆

PubMed Central

Valdes, Santiago O.; Donoghue, Aaron J.; Hoyme, Derek B.; Hammond, Rachel; Berg, Marc D.; Berg, Robert A.; Samson, Ricardo A.

2015-01-01

Aim To determine the association between amiodarone and lidocaine and outcomes in children with cardiac arrest with pulse less ventricular tachycardia (pVT) and ventricular fibrillation (VF). Background Current AHA guidelines for CPR and emergency cardiovascular care recommend amiodarone for cardiac arrest in children associated with shock refractory pVT/VF, based on a single pediatric study and extrapolation from adult data. Methods Retrospective cohort study from the Get With the Guidelines-Resuscitation database for in-patient cardiac arrest. Patients< 18 years old with pVT/VF cardiac arrest were included. Patients receiving amiodarone or lidocaine prior to arrest or whose initial arrest rhythm was unknown were excluded. Univariate analysis was performed to assess the association between patient and event factors and clinical outcomes. Multivariate analysis was performed to address independent association between lidocaine and amiodarone use and outcomes. Results Of 889 patients. 171 (19%) received amiodarone, 295 (33%) received lidocaine. and 82 (10%) received both. Return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) occurred in 484/889 (54%), 24-h survival in 342/874 (39%), and survival to hospital discharge in 194/889 (22%}. Lidocaine was associated with improved ROSC (adjusted OR 2.02, 95% Cl 1.36-3 ). and 24-h survival (adjusted OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.11-2.49), but not hospital discharge. Amiodarone use was not associated with ROSC, 24 h survival, or survival to discharge. Conclusions For children with in-hospital pVT/VF, lidocaine use was independently associated with improved ROSC and 24-h survival. Amiodarone use was not associated with superior rates of ROSC, survival at 24 h. Neither drug was associated with survival to hospital discharge. PMID:24361455

Temozolomide treatment of pituitary carcinomas and atypical adenomas: systematic review of case reports

PubMed Central

Ji, Yan; Vogel, Rachel Isaksson; Lou, Emil

2016-01-01

Background Pituitary carcinomas (PC) and atypical pituitary adenomas (APA) are rare variants of pituitary tumors for which no evidence-based treatment currently exists. We sought to determine whether temozolomide represents an effective chemotherapeutic option for patients with PC and APA. Methods A systematic review was performed using all published cases of PC and APA treated with temozolomide, and for which information on treatment regimen, clinical response, and survival could be identified. The primary goal of this analysis was to describe overall survival and progression-free survival among PC and APA patients after temozolomide treatment. Secondary goals included assessment of response rate and biomarkers of response. Results We identified 57 cases and obtained follow-up data on 54 patients (31 APA and 23 PC) for analysis. Estimates of 5-year progression-free survival and overall survival were 21.9% and 57.4% for patients with APA and 36.1% and 56.2% for patients with PC. Among those who responded to temozolomide, overall survival was marginally statistically significantly greater for patients on long-term temozolomide therapy compared with those who were not (5-year overall survival 91.7% vs 54.1%, P = .08); Progression-free survival results were similar but not statistically significant. The objective response rate was 48.4% for patients with APA and 65.2% for patients with PC. Stable disease occurred in 29% of APA and 17.4% of PC patients. Neither histology nor expression of Ki-67 correlated with response; however, negative O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase staining was strongly related to response to temozolomide in patients with APA (P < .001). Conclusions Temozolomide is an effective treatment of both PC and APA, and long-term treatment can be considered for particularly aggressive cases. PMID:27551432

Chronic kidney disease in dogs in UK veterinary practices: prevalence, risk factors, and survival.

PubMed

O'Neill, D G; Elliott, J; Church, D B; McGreevy, P D; Thomson, P C; Brodbelt, D C

2013-01-01

The prevalence for chronic kidney disease (CKD) in dogs varies widely (0.05-3.74%). Identified risk factors include advancing age, specific breeds, small body size, and periodontal disease. To estimate the prevalence and identify risk factors associated with CKD diagnosis and survival in dogs. Purebred dogs were hypothesized to have higher CKD risk and poorer survival characteristics than crossbred dogs. A merged clinical database of 107,214 dogs attending 89 UK veterinary practices over a 2-year period (January 2010-December 2011). A longitudinal study design estimated the apparent prevalence (AP) whereas the true prevalence (TP) was estimated using Bayesian analysis. A nested case-control study design evaluated risk factors. Survival analysis used the Kaplan-Meier survival curve method and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression modeling. The CKD AP was 0.21% (95% CI: 0.19-0.24%) and TP was 0.37% (95% posterior credibility interval 0.02-1.44%). Significant risk factors included increasing age, being insured, and certain breeds (Cocker Spaniel, Cavalier King Charles Spaniel). Cardiac disease was a significant comorbid disorder. Significant clinical signs included halitosis, weight loss, polyuria/polydipsia, urinary incontinence, vomiting, decreased appetite, lethargy, and diarrhea. The median survival time from diagnosis was 226 days (95% CI 112-326 days). International Renal Interest Society stage and blood urea nitrogen concentration at diagnosis were significantly associated with hazard of death due to CKD. Chronic kidney disease compromises dog welfare. Increased awareness of CKD risk factors and association of blood biochemistry results with survival time should facilitate diagnosis and optimize case management to improve animal survival and welfare. Copyright © 2013 by the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

Effects of weather on survival in populations of boreal toads in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scherer, R. D.; Muths, E.; Lambert, B.A.

2008-01-01

Understanding the relationships between animal population demography and the abiotic and biotic elements of the environments in which they live is a central objective in population ecology. For example, correlations between weather variables and the probability of survival in populations of temperate zone amphibians may be broadly applicable to several species if such correlations can be validated for multiple situations. This study focuses on the probability of survival and evaluates hypotheses based on six weather variables in three populations of Boreal Toads (Bufo boreas) from central Colorado over eight years. In addition to suggesting a relationship between some weather variables and survival probability in Boreal Toad populations, this study uses robust methods and highlights the need for demographic estimates that are precise and have minimal bias. Capture-recapture methods were used to collect the data, and the Cormack-Jolly-Seber model in program MARK was used for analysis. The top models included minimum daily winter air temperature, and the sum of the model weights for these models was 0.956. Weaker support was found for the importance of snow depth and the amount of environmental moisture in winter in modeling survival probability. Minimum daily winter air temperature was positively correlated with the probability of survival in Boreal Toads at other sites in Colorado and has been identified as an important covariate in studies in other parts of the world. If air temperatures are an important component of survival for Boreal Toads or other amphibians, changes in climate may have profound impacts on populations. Copyright 2008 Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles.

Linking the Price of Cancer Drug Treatments to Their Clinical Value.

PubMed

Gozzo, Lucia; Navarria, Andrea; Drago, Valentina; Longo, Laura; Mansueto, Silvana; Pignataro, Giacomo; Cicchetti, Americo; Salomone, Salvatore; Drago, Filippo

2016-07-01

Appropriate pricing of medications is one of the ultimate goals for decision makers, but reliable data on the risk/benefit ratio are often lacking when a Marketing Authorization Application is submitted. Here we propose a method to consistently evaluate price adequacy, which we applied to six anticancer medications approved in Italy in recent years. We obtained ratios of cost per survival per day (cost/survival/day) by dividing the total costs of evaluated medications for the median survival gain in days. Each cost/survival/day corresponds to a crude score, with 0 assigned to a cost/survival/day ≥€586. The maximum price considered as adequate was €91 cost/survival/day (score 75) while a score of 100 corresponded to a cost/survival/day ≤€11, based on the thresholds set by the British National Health System (NHS) and the "willingness-to-pay" of the Italian NHS. Crude scores were then adjusted using correction factors for efficacy, safety, quality of life, and prevalence of disease. None of the analyzed medications (abiraterone, afatinib, aflibercept, bevacizumab, dabrafenib, and ipilimumab) achieved a final score of 75, corresponding to adequate pricing. The final score for afatinib was the highest with 55 points. Prices of all the other drugs resulted in being inadequate, with negative final scores for bevacizumab, dabrafenib, and ipilimumab. This method may be considered a tool for the evaluation of appropriateness of price proposed at negotiation and could represent a reliable resource for decision-making. Furthermore, this analysis suggests that most recently approved cancer drugs in Italy do not fulfill price adequacy.

Survival advantage of marriage in uterine cancer patients contrasts poor outcome for widows: a Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results study.

PubMed

Lowery, William J; Stany, Michael P; Phippen, Neil T; Bunch, Kristen P; Oliver, Kate E; Tian, Chunqiao; Maxwell, G Larry; Darcy, Kathleen M; Hamilton, Chad A

2015-02-01

Marriage confers a survival advantage for many cancers but has yet to be evaluated in uterine cancer patients. We sought to determine whether uterine cancer survival varied by self-reported relationship status. Data were downloaded from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program for women diagnosed with uterine cancer (between 1991 and 2010 in nine geographic regions). Patients with complete clinical data for analysis were categorized as married, single, widowed or other (divorced or separated). Differences in distributions were evaluated using Chi-square, exact and/or Mantel-Haenszel test. Uterine cancer survival was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier method with log-rank test and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Of 47,420 eligible patients, 56% were married, 15% were single and 19% were widows. Married vs. non-married women had a higher likelihood of having low risk (grade 1/2 endometrioid) endometrial cancer and local disease (p<0.0001), and a reduced risk of cancer death (HR=0.8, 95% CI=0.77-0.84). Multivariate evaluation of uterine cancer survival by relationship type indicated that widows consistently had significantly worse uterine cancer survival than single, married and other women in all patients and subset analyses (p<0.0001). While marital status is associated with differential uterine cancer survival, evaluation of self-reported relationship by type indicated that the poor outcome observed in widows explained most of the benefit attributed to marriage. This report identifies widows as a new high-risk subpopulation with significantly inferior outcomes potentially benefiting from personalized care and social support. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Clinical analysis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after living-donor liver transplantation

PubMed Central

Na, Gun Hyung; Hong, Tae Ho; You, Young Kyoung; Kim, Dong Goo

2016-01-01

AIM: To evaluated patterns and outcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after living donor liver transplantation (LDLT). METHODS: From 2001 to 2014, 293 patients underwent LDLT for HCC at our transplant center. We retrospectively reviewed 54 (18.4%) patients with HCC recurrence after LDLT. We evaluated patterns and outcomes of HCC recurrence after LDLT, with particular attention to the Milan criteria at transplantation, treatments for HCC-recurrent patients, and factors related to survival after HCC recurrence. Furthermore, we evaluated the efficacy of combination treatment of sorafenib and an mTOR inhibitor. RESULTS: The 1-, 2-, and 3-year overall survival rates after HCC recurrence were 41.1%, 20.5%, and 15.4%, respectively. The median time interval between LDLT and HCC recurrence was 6.5 mo. Although recurrence rates according to the Milan criteria at LDLT were significantly different, HCC recurrence patterns and survival rates after HCC recurrence were not significantly different between the two groups. Time to recurrence < 12 mo (P = 0.048), multiple recurrences at HCC recurrence (P = 0.038), and palliative treatment for recurrent tumors (P = 0.003) were significant independent prognostic factors for poor survival after HCC recurrence in a multivariate analysis. The combination treatment of sorafenib and sirolimus showed survival benefits in the palliative treatment group (P = 0.005). CONCLUSION: Curative treatment for recurrent HCC after LDLT is the most important factor in survival rates after HCC recurrence and combination treatments of sorafenib and an mTOR inhibitor could have survival benefits in patients with HCC recurrence after LT in the palliative treatment group. PMID:27433092

Preoperative Erythrocyte Sedimentation Rate Independently Predicts Overall Survival in Localized Renal Cell Carcinoma following Radical Nephrectomy

PubMed Central

Cross, Brian W.; Johnson, Timothy V.; DeRosa, Austin B.; Ogan, Kenneth; Pattaras, John G.; Nieh, Peter T.; Kucuk, Omer; Harris, Wayne B.; Master, Viraj A.

2012-01-01

Objectives. To determine the relationship between preoperative erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and overall survival in localized renal cell carcinoma (RCC) following nephrectomy. Methods. 167 patients undergoing nephrectomy for localized RCC had ESR levels measured preoperatively. Receiver Operating Characteristics curves were used to determine Area Under the Curve and relative sensitivity and specificity of preoperative ESR in predicting overall survival. Cut-offs for low (0.0–20.0 mm/hr), intermediate (20.1–50.0 mm/hr), and high risk (>50.0 mm/hr) groups were created. Kaplan-Meier analysis was conducted to assess the univariate impact of these ESR-based groups on overall survival. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis was conducted to assess the potential of these groups to predict overall survival, adjusting for other patient and tumor characteristics. Results. Overall, 55.2% were low risk, while 27.0% and 17.8% were intermediate and high risk, respectively. Median (95% CI) survival was 44.1 (42.6–45.5) months, 35.5 (32.3–38.8) months, and 32.1 (25.5–38.6) months, respectively. After controlling for other patient and tumor characteristics, intermediate and high risk groups experienced a 4.5-fold (HR: 4.509, 95% CI: 0.735–27.649) and 18.5-fold (HR: 18.531, 95% CI: 2.117–162.228) increased risk of overall mortality, respectively. Conclusion. Preoperative ESR values represent a robust predictor of overall survival following nephrectomy in localized RCC. PMID:22900160

Repair or Replacement for Isolated Tricuspid Valve Pathology? Insights from a Surgical Analysis on Long-Term Survival

PubMed Central

Farag, Mina; Arif, Rawa; Sabashnikov, Anton; Zeriouh, Mohamed; Popov, Aron-Frederik; Ruhparwar, Arjang; Schmack, Bastian; Dohmen, Pascal M.; Szabó, Gábor; Karck, Matthias; Weymann, Alexander

2017-01-01

Background Long-term follow-up data concerning isolated tricuspid valve pathology after replacement or reconstruction is limited. Current American Heart Association guidelines equally recommend repair and replacement when surgical intervention is indicated. Our aim was to investigate and compare operative mortality and long-term survival in patients undergoing isolated tricuspid valve repair surgery versus replacement. Material/Methods Between 1995 and 2011, 109 consecutive patients underwent surgical correction of tricuspid valve pathology at our institution for varying structural pathologies. A total of 41 (37.6%) patients underwent tricuspid annuloplasty/repair (TAP) with or without ring implantation, while 68 (62.3%) patients received tricuspid valve replacement (TVR) of whom 36 (53%) were mechanical and 32 (47%) were biological prostheses. Results Early survival at 30 days after surgery was 97.6% in the TAP group and 91.1% in the TVR group. After 6 months, 89.1% in the TAP group and 87.8% in the TVR group were alive. In terms of long-term survival, there was no further mortality observed after one year post surgery in both groups (Log Rank p=0.919, Breslow p=0.834, Tarone-Ware p=0.880) in the Kaplan-Meier Survival analysis. The 1-, 5-, and 8-year survival rates were 85.8% for TAP and 87.8% for TVR group. Conclusions Surgical repair of the tricuspid valve does not show survival benefit when compared to replacement. Hence valve replacement should be considered generously in patients with reasonable suspicion that regurgitation after repair will reoccur. PMID:28236633

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy Compared With Radiofrequency Ablation for Inoperable Colorectal Liver Metastases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Hayeon, E-mail: kimh2@upmc.edu; Gill, Beant; Beriwal, Sushil

Purpose: To conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis to determine whether stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) is a cost-effective therapy compared with radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for patients with unresectable colorectal cancer (CRC) liver metastases. Methods and Materials: A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using a Markov model and 1-month cycle over a lifetime horizon. Transition probabilities, quality of life utilities, and costs associated with SBRT and RFA were captured in the model on the basis of a comprehensive literature review and Medicare reimbursements in 2014. Strategies were compared using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, with effectiveness measured in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). To account formore » model uncertainty, 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Strategies were evaluated with a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per QALY gained. Results: In base case analysis, treatment costs for 3 fractions of SBRT and 1 RFA procedure were $13,000 and $4397, respectively. Median survival was assumed the same for both strategies (25 months). The SBRT costs $8202 more than RFA while gaining 0.05 QALYs, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $164,660 per QALY gained. In 1-way sensitivity analyses, results were most sensitive to variation of median survival from both treatments. Stereotactic body radiation therapy was economically reasonable if better survival was presumed (>1 month gain) or if used for large tumors (>4 cm). Conclusions: If equal survival is assumed, SBRT is not cost-effective compared with RFA for inoperable colorectal liver metastases. However, if better local control leads to small survival gains with SBRT, this strategy becomes cost-effective. Ideally, these results should be confirmed with prospective comparative data.« less

Clinical and prognostic value of preoperative hydronephrosis in upper tract urothelial carcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhiping

2016-01-01

Background. Epidemiological studies have reported various results relating preoperative hydronephrosis to upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC). However, the clinical significance and prognostic value of preoperative hydronephrosis in UTUC remains controversial. The aim of this study was to provide a comprehensive meta-analysis of the extent of the possible association between preoperative hydronephrosis and the risk of UTUC. Methods. We searched PubMed, ISI Web of Knowledge, and Embase to identify eligible studies written in English. Summary odds ratios (ORs) or hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using fixed-effects or random-effects models. Results. Nineteen relevant studies, which had a total of 5,782 UTUC patients enrolled, were selected for statistical analysis. The clinicopathological and prognostic relevance of preoperative hydronephrosis was evaluated in the UTUC patients. The results showed that all tumor stages, lymph node status and tumor location, as well as the risk of cancer-specific survival (CSS), overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS) and metastasis-free survival (MFS) were significantly different between UTUC patients with elevated preoperative hydronephrosis and those with low preoperative hydronephrosis. High preoperative hydronephrosis indicated a poor prognosis. Additionally, significant correlations between preoperative hydronephrosis and tumor grade (high grade vs. low grade) were observed in UTUC patients; however, no significant difference was observed for tumor grading (G1 vs. G2 + G3 and G1 + G2 vs. G3). In contrast, no such correlations were evident for recurrence status or gender in UTUC patients. Conclusions. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that preoperative hydronephrosis is associated with increased risk and poor survival in UTUC patients. The presence of preoperative hydronephrosis plays an important role in the carcinogenesis and prognosis of UTUC. PMID:27366646

A retrospective analysis of the role of proton pump inhibitors in colorectal cancer disease survival

PubMed Central

Graham, C.; Orr, C.; Bricks, C.S.; Hopman, W.M.; Hammad, N.; Ramjeesingh, R.

2016-01-01

Background Proton pump inhibitors (ppis) are a commonly used medication. A limited number of studies have identified a weak-to-moderate association between ppi use and colorectal cancer (crc) risk, but none to date have identified an effect of ppi use on crc survival. We therefore postulated that an association between ppi use and crc survival might potentially exist. Methods We performed a retrospective chart review of 1304 crc patients diagnosed from January 2005 to December 2011 and treated at the Cancer Centre of Southeastern Ontario. Kaplan–Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to evaluate overall survival (os). Results We identified 117 patients (9.0%) who were taking ppis at the time of oncology consult. Those taking a ppi were also more often taking asa or statins (or both) and had a statistically significantly increased rate of cardiac disease. No identifiable difference in tumour characteristics was evident in the two groups, including tumour location, differentiation, lymph node status, and stage. Univariate analysis identified a statistically nonsignificant difference in survival, with those taking a ppi experiencing lesser 1-year (82.1% vs. 86.7%, p = 0.161), 2-year (70.1% vs. 76.8%, p = 0.111), and 5-year os (55.2% vs. 62.9%, p = 0.165). When controlling for patient demographics and tumour characteristics, multivariate Cox regression analysis identified a statistically significant effect of ppi in our patient population (hazard ratio: 1.343; 95% confidence interval: 1.011 to 1.785; p = 0.042). Conclusions Our results suggest a potential adverse effect of ppi use on os in crc patients. These results need further evaluation in prospective analyses. PMID:28050148

Study of Clinical Survival and Gene Expression in a Sample of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma by Parsimony Phylogenetic Analysis.

PubMed

Nalbantoglu, Sinem; Abu-Asab, Mones; Tan, Ming; Zhang, Xuemin; Cai, Ling; Amri, Hakima

2016-07-01

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is one of the rapidly growing forms of pancreatic cancer with a poor prognosis and less than 5% 5-year survival rate. In this study, we characterized the genetic signatures and signaling pathways related to survival from PDAC, using a parsimony phylogenetic algorithm. We applied the parsimony phylogenetic algorithm to analyze the publicly available whole-genome in silico array analysis of a gene expression data set in 25 early-stage human PDAC specimens. We explain here that the parsimony phylogenetics is an evolutionary analytical method that offers important promise to uncover clonal (driver) and nonclonal (passenger) aberrations in complex diseases. In our analysis, parsimony and statistical analyses did not identify significant correlations between survival times and gene expression values. Thus, the survival rankings did not appear to be significantly different between patients for any specific gene (p > 0.05). Also, we did not find correlation between gene expression data and tumor stage in the present data set. While the present analysis was unable to identify in this relatively small sample of patients a molecular signature associated with pancreatic cancer prognosis, we suggest that future research and analyses with the parsimony phylogenetic algorithm in larger patient samples are worthwhile, given the devastating nature of pancreatic cancer and its early diagnosis, and the need for novel data analytic approaches. The future research practices might want to place greater emphasis on phylogenetics as one of the analytical paradigms, as our findings presented here are on the cusp of this shift, especially in the current era of Big Data and innovation policies advocating for greater data sharing and reanalysis.

Long-term outcomes and prognostic factors for patients with esophageal cancer following radiotherapy

PubMed Central

Chen, Chuang-Zhen; Chen, Jian-Zhou; Li, De-Rui; Lin, Zhi-Xiong; Zhou, Ming-Zhen; Li, Dong-Sheng; Chen, Zhi-Jian

2013-01-01

AIM: To evaluate long-term outcomes and prognostic factors for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) treated with three dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT). METHODS: Between January 2005 and December 2006, 153 patients (120 males, 33 females) with pathologically confirmed esophageal SCC and treated with 3D-CRT in Cancer Hospital of Shantou University were included in this retrospective analysis. Median age was 60 years (range: 37-84 years). The proportion of tumor location was as follows: upper thorax (including the cervical region), 73 (48%); middle thorax, 73 (48%); lower thorax, 7 (5%), respectively. The median radiation dose was 64 Gy (range: 50-74 Gy). Fifty four cases (35%) received cisplatin-based concurrent chemotherapy. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to determine the association between the correlative factors and prognosis. RESULTS: The five-year overall survival rate was 26.3%, with a median follow-up of 49 mo (range: 3-66 mo) for patients who were still alive. On univariate analysis, lesion location, lesion length by barium esophagogram, computed tomography imaging characteristics including Y diameter (anterior-posterior, AP, extent of tumor), gross tumor volume of primary lesion (GTV-E), volume of positive lymph nodes (GTV-LN), and the total target volume (GTV-T = GTV-E + GTV-LN) were prognostic for overall survival. By multivariate analysis, only the Y diameter [hazard ratio (HR) 2.219, 95%CI 1.141-4.316, P = 0.019] and the GTV-T (HR 1.372, 95%CI 1.044-1.803, P = 0.023) were independent prognostic factors for survival. CONCLUSION: The overall survival of esophageal carcinoma patients undergoing 3D-CRT was promising. The best predictors for survival were GTV-T and Y diameter. PMID:23539205

Use of common analgesic medications and ovarian cancer survival: results from a pooled analysis in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium

PubMed Central

Dixon, Suzanne C; Nagle, Christina M; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Trabert, Britton; Beeghly-Fadiel, Alicia; Schildkraut, Joellen M; Moysich, Kirsten B; deFazio, Anna; Risch, Harvey A; Rossing, Mary Anne; Doherty, Jennifer A; Wicklund, Kristine G; Goodman, Marc T; Modugno, Francesmary; Ness, Roberta B; Edwards, Robert P; Jensen, Allan; Kjær, Susanne K; Høgdall, Estrid; Berchuck, Andrew; Cramer, Daniel W; Terry, Kathryn L; Poole, Elizabeth M; Bandera, Elisa V; Paddock, Lisa E; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Ziogas, Argyrios; Menon, Usha; Gayther, Simon A; Ramus, Susan J; Gentry-Maharaj, Aleksandra; Pearce, Celeste Leigh; Wu, Anna H; Pike, Malcolm C; Webb, Penelope M

2017-01-01

Background: Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) have been associated with improved survival in some cancers, but evidence for ovarian cancer is limited. Methods: Pooling individual-level data from 12 Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium studies, we evaluated the association between self-reported, pre-diagnosis use of common analgesics and overall/progression-free/disease-specific survival among 7694 women with invasive epithelial ovarian cancer (4273 deaths). Results: Regular analgesic use (at least once per week) was not associated with overall survival (pooled hazard ratios, pHRs (95% confidence intervals): aspirin 0.96 (0.88–1.04); non-aspirin NSAIDs 0.97 (0.89–1.05); acetaminophen 1.01 (0.93–1.10)), nor with progression-free/disease-specific survival. There was however a survival advantage for users of any NSAIDs in studies clearly defining non-use as less than once per week (pHR=0.89 (0.82–0.98)). Conclusions: Although this study did not show a clear association between analgesic use and ovarian cancer survival, further investigation with clearer definitions of use and information about post-diagnosis use is warranted. PMID:28350790

Development of National Program of Cancer Registries SAS Tool for Population-Based Cancer Relative Survival Analysis.

PubMed

Dong, Xing; Zhang, Kevin; Ren, Yuan; Wilson, Reda; O'Neil, Mary Elizabeth

2016-01-01

Studying population-based cancer survival by leveraging the high-quality cancer incidence data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) can offer valuable insight into the cancer burden and impact in the United States. We describe the development and validation of a SASmacro tool that calculates population-based cancer site-specific relative survival estimates comparable to those obtained through SEER*Stat. The NPCR relative survival analysis SAS tool (NPCR SAS tool) was developed based on the relative survival method and SAS macros developed by Paul Dickman. NPCR cancer incidence data from 25 states submitted in November 2012 were used, specifically cases diagnosed from 2003 to 2010 with follow-up through 2010. Decennial and annual complete life tables published by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) for 2000 through 2009 were used. To assess comparability between the 2 tools, 5-year relative survival rates were calculated for 25 cancer sites by sex, race, and age group using the NPCR SAS tool and the National Cancer Institute's SEER*Stat 8.1.5 software. A module to create data files for SEER*Stat was also developed for the NPCR SAS tool. Comparison of the results produced by both SAS and SEER*Stat showed comparable and reliable relative survival estimates for NPCR data. For a majority of the sites, the net differences between the NPCR SAS tool and SEER*Stat-produced relative survival estimates ranged from -0.1% to 0.1%. The estimated standard errors were highly comparable between the 2 tools as well. The NPCR SAS tool will allow researchers to accurately estimate cancer 5-year relative survival estimates that are comparable to those produced by SEER*Stat for NPCR data. Comparison of output from the NPCR SAS tool and SEER*Stat provided additional quality control capabilities for evaluating data prior to producing NPCR relative survival estimates.

Prompt use of mechanical cardiopulmonary resuscitation in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: the MECCA study report

PubMed Central

Anantharaman, Venkataraman; Ng, Boon Lui Benjamin; Ang, Shiang Hu; Lee, Chun Yue Francis; Leong, Siew Hon Benjamin; Ong, Marcus Eng Hock; Chua, Siang Jin Terrance; Rabind, Antony Charles; Anjali, Nagaraj Baglody; Hao, Ying

2017-01-01

INTRODUCTION Early use of mechanical cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) may improve survival outcomes. Current evidence for such devices uses outcomes from an intention-to-treat (ITT) perspective. We aimed to determine whether early use of mechanical CPR using a LUCAS 2 device results in better outcomes. METHODS A prospective, randomised, multicentre study was conducted over one year with LUCAS 2 devices in 14 ambulances and manual CPR in 32 ambulances to manage OHCA. The primary outcome was return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC). Secondary outcomes were survival at 24 hours, discharge from hospital and 30 days. RESULTS Of the 1,274 patients recruited, 1,191 were eligible for analysis. 889 had manual CPR and 302 had LUCAS CPR. From an ITT perspective, outcomes for manual and LUCAS CPR were: ROSC 29.2% and 31.1% (odds ratio [OR] 1.09, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.82–1.45; p = 0.537); 24-hour survival 11.2% and 13.2% (OR 1.20, 95% CI 0.81–1.78; p = 0.352); survival to discharge 3.6% and 4.3% (OR 1.20, 95% CI 0.62–2.33; p = 0.579); and 30-day survival 3.0% and 4.0% (OR 1.32, 95% CI 0.66–2.64; p = 0.430), respectively. By as-treated analysis, outcomes for manual, early LUCAS and late LUCAS CPR were: ROSC 28.0%, 36.9% and 24.5%; 24-hour survival 10.6%, 15.5% and 8.2%; survival to discharge 2.9%, 5.8% and 2.0%; and 30-day survival 2.4%, 5.8% and 0.0%, respectively. Adjusted OR for survival with early LUCAS vs. manual CPR was 1.47 after adjustment for other variables (p = 0.026). CONCLUSION This study showed a survival benefit with LUCAS CPR as compared to manual CPR only, when the device was applied early on-site. PMID:28741013

Modeling the airborne survival of influenza virus in a residential setting: the impacts of home humidification

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Laboratory research studies indicate that aerosolized influenza viruses survive for longer periods at low relative humidity (RH) conditions. Further analysis has shown that absolute humidity (AH) may be an improved predictor of virus survival in the environment. Maintaining airborne moisture levels that reduce survival of the virus in the air and on surfaces could be another tool for managing public health risks of influenza. Methods A multi-zone indoor air quality model was used to evaluate the ability of portable humidifiers to control moisture content of the air and the potential related benefit of decreasing survival of influenza viruses in single-family residences. We modeled indoor AH and influenza virus concentrations during winter months (Northeast US) using the CONTAM multi-zone indoor air quality model. A two-story residential template was used under two different ventilation conditions - forced hot air and radiant heating. Humidity was evaluated on a room-specific and whole house basis. Estimates of emission rates for influenza virus were particle-size specific and derived from published studies and included emissions during both tidal breathing and coughing events. The survival of the influenza virus was determined based on the established relationship between AH and virus survival. Results The presence of a portable humidifier with an output of 0.16 kg water per hour in the bedroom resulted in an increase in median sleeping hours AH/RH levels of 11 to 19% compared to periods without a humidifier present. The associated percent decrease in influenza virus survival was 17.5 - 31.6%. Distribution of water vapor through a residence was estimated to yield 3 to 12% increases in AH/RH and 7.8-13.9% reductions in influenza virus survival. Conclusion This modeling analysis demonstrates the potential benefit of portable residential humidifiers in reducing the survival of aerosolized influenza virus by controlling humidity indoors. PMID:20815876

Joint modelling of longitudinal CEA tumour marker progression and survival data on breast cancer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borges, Ana; Sousa, Inês; Castro, Luis

2017-06-01

This work proposes the use of Biostatistics methods to study breast cancer in patients of Braga's Hospital Senology Unit, located in Portugal. The primary motivation is to contribute to the understanding of the progression of breast cancer, within the Portuguese population, using a more complex statistical model assumptions than the traditional analysis that take into account a possible existence of a serial correlation structure within a same subject observations. We aim to infer which risk factors aect the survival of Braga's Hospital patients, diagnosed with breast tumour. Whilst analysing risk factors that aect a tumour markers used on the surveillance of disease progression the Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). As survival and longitudinal processes may be associated, it is important to model these two processes together. Hence, a joint modelling of these two processes to infer on the association of these was conducted. A data set of 540 patients, along with 50 variables, was collected from medical records of the Hospital. A joint model approach was used to analyse these data. Two dierent joint models were applied to the same data set, with dierent parameterizations which give dierent interpretations to model parameters. These were used by convenience as the ones implemented in R software. Results from the two models were compared. Results from joint models, showed that the longitudinal CEA values were signicantly associated with the survival probability of these patients. A comparison between parameter estimates obtained in this analysis and previous independent survival[4] and longitudinal analysis[5][6], lead us to conclude that independent analysis brings up bias parameter estimates. Hence, an assumption of association between the two processes in a joint model of breast cancer data is necessary. Results indicate that the longitudinal progression of CEA is signicantly associated with the probability of survival of these patients. Hence, an assumption of association between the two processes in a joint model of breast cancer data is necessary.

Conventional Versus Automated Implantation of Loose Seeds in Prostate Brachytherapy: Analysis of Dosimetric and Clinical Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Genebes, Caroline, E-mail: genebes.caroline@claudiusregaud.fr; Filleron, Thomas; Graff, Pierre

2013-11-15

Purpose: To review the clinical outcome of I-125 permanent prostate brachytherapy (PPB) for low-risk and intermediate-risk prostate cancer and to compare 2 techniques of loose-seed implantation. Methods and Materials: 574 consecutive patients underwent I-125 PPB for low-risk and intermediate-risk prostate cancer between 2000 and 2008. Two successive techniques were used: conventional implantation from 2000 to 2004 and automated implantation (Nucletron, FIRST system) from 2004 to 2008. Dosimetric and biochemical recurrence-free (bNED) survival results were reported and compared for the 2 techniques. Univariate and multivariate analysis researched independent predictors for bNED survival. Results: 419 (73%) and 155 (27%) patients with low-riskmore » and intermediate-risk disease, respectively, were treated (median follow-up time, 69.3 months). The 60-month bNED survival rates were 95.2% and 85.7%, respectively, for patients with low-risk and intermediate-risk disease (P=.04). In univariate analysis, patients treated with automated implantation had worse bNED survival rates than did those treated with conventional implantation (P<.0001). By day 30, patients treated with automated implantation showed lower values of dose delivered to 90% of prostate volume (D90) and volume of prostate receiving 100% of prescribed dose (V100). In multivariate analysis, implantation technique, Gleason score, and V100 on day 30 were independent predictors of recurrence-free status. Grade 3 urethritis and urinary incontinence were observed in 2.6% and 1.6% of the cohort, respectively, with no significant differences between the 2 techniques. No grade 3 proctitis was observed. Conclusion: Satisfactory 60-month bNED survival rates (93.1%) and acceptable toxicity (grade 3 urethritis <3%) were achieved by loose-seed implantation. Automated implantation was associated with worse dosimetric and bNED survival outcomes.« less

Causal Mediation Analysis of Survival Outcome with Multiple Mediators.

PubMed

Huang, Yen-Tsung; Yang, Hwai-I

2017-05-01

Mediation analyses have been a popular approach to investigate the effect of an exposure on an outcome through a mediator. Mediation models with multiple mediators have been proposed for continuous and dichotomous outcomes. However, development of multimediator models for survival outcomes is still limited. We present methods for multimediator analyses using three survival models: Aalen additive hazard models, Cox proportional hazard models, and semiparametric probit models. Effects through mediators can be characterized by path-specific effects, for which definitions and identifiability assumptions are provided. We derive closed-form expressions for path-specific effects for the three models, which are intuitively interpreted using a causal diagram. Mediation analyses using Cox models under the rare-outcome assumption and Aalen additive hazard models consider effects on log hazard ratio and hazard difference, respectively; analyses using semiparametric probit models consider effects on difference in transformed survival time and survival probability. The three models were applied to a hepatitis study where we investigated effects of hepatitis C on liver cancer incidence mediated through baseline and/or follow-up hepatitis B viral load. The three methods show consistent results on respective effect scales, which suggest an adverse estimated effect of hepatitis C on liver cancer not mediated through hepatitis B, and a protective estimated effect mediated through the baseline (and possibly follow-up) of hepatitis B viral load. Causal mediation analyses of survival outcome with multiple mediators are developed for additive hazard and proportional hazard and probit models with utility demonstrated in a hepatitis study.

Deriving injury risk curves using survival analysis from biomechanical experiments.

PubMed

Yoganandan, Narayan; Banerjee, Anjishnu; Hsu, Fang-Chi; Bass, Cameron R; Voo, Liming; Pintar, Frank A; Gayzik, F Scott

2016-10-03

Injury risk curves from biomechanical experimental data analysis are used in automotive studies to improve crashworthiness and advance occupant safety. Metrics such as acceleration and deflection coupled with outcomes such as fractures and anatomical disruptions from impact tests are used in simple binary regression models. As an improvement, the International Standards Organization suggested a different approach. It was based on survival analysis. While probability curves for side-impact-induced thorax and abdominal injuries and frontal impact-induced foot-ankle-leg injuries are developed using this approach, deficiencies are apparent. The objective of this study is to present an improved, robust and generalizable methodology in an attempt to resolve these issues. It includes: (a) statistical identification of the most appropriate independent variable (metric) from a pool of candidate metrics, measured and or derived during experimentation and analysis processes, based on the highest area under the receiver operator curve, (b) quantitative determination of the most optimal probability distribution based on the lowest Akaike information criterion, (c) supplementing the qualitative/visual inspection method for comparing the selected distribution with a non-parametric distribution with objective measures, (d) identification of overly influential observations using different methods, and (e) estimation of confidence intervals using techniques more appropriate to the underlying survival statistical model. These clear and quantified details can be easily implemented with commercial/open source packages. They can be used in retrospective analysis and prospective design of experiments, and in applications to different loading scenarios such as underbody blast events. The feasibility of the methodology is demonstrated using post mortem human subject experiments and 24 metrics associated with thoracic/abdominal injuries in side-impacts. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Feasibility of Economic Analysis of Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) 91-11 Using Medicare Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Konski, Andre, E-mail: akonski@med.wayne.ed; Bhargavan, Mythreyi; Owen, Jean

Purpose: The specific aim of this analysis was to evaluate the feasibility of performing a cost-effectiveness analysis using Medicare data from patients treated on a randomized Phase III clinical trial. Methods and Materials: Cost data included Medicare Part A and Part B costs from all providers-inpatient, outpatient, skilled nursing facility, home health, hospice, and physicians-and were obtained from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services for patients eligible for Medicare, treated on Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) 9111 between 1992 and 1996. The 47-month expected discounted (annual discount rate of 3%) cost for each arm of the trial was calculatedmore » in 1996 dollars, with Kaplan-Meier sampling average estimates of survival probabilities for each month and mean monthly costs. Overall and disease-free survival was also discounted 3%/year. The analysis was performed from a payer's perspective. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated comparing the chemotherapy arms to the radiation alone arm. Results: Of the 547 patients entered, Medicare cost data and clinical outcomes were available for 66 patients. Reasons for exclusion included no RTOG follow-up, Medicare HMO enrollment, no Medicare claims since trial entry, and trial entry after 1996. Differences existed between groups in tumor characteristics, toxicity, and survival, all which could affect resource utilization. Conclusions: Although we were able to test the methodology of economic analysis alongside a clinical trial using Medicare data, the results may be difficult to translate to the entire trial population because of non-random missing data. Methods to improve Medicare data capture and matching to clinical trial samples are required.« less

Analysis of Prognostic Factors and Patterns of Recurrence in Patients With Pathologic Stage III Endometrial Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patel, Samir; Portelance, Lorraine; Gilbert, Lucy

2007-08-01

Purpose: To retrospectively assess prognostic factors and patterns of recurrence in patients with pathologic Stage III endometrial cancer. Methods and Materials: Between 1989 and 2003, 107 patients with pathologic International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics Stage III endometrial adenocarcinoma confined to the pelvis were treated at our institution. Adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) was delivered to 68 patients (64%). The influence of multiple patient- and treatment-related factors on pelvic and distant control and overall survival (OS) was evaluated. Results: Median follow-up for patients at risk was 41 months. Five-year actuarial OS was significantly improved in patients treated with adjuvant RT (68%) comparedmore » with those with resection alone (50%; p = 0.029). Age, histology, grade, uterine serosal invasion, adnexal involvement, number of extrauterine sites, and treatment with adjuvant RT predicted for improved survival in univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis revealed that grade, uterine serosal invasion, and treatment with adjuvant RT were independent predictors of survival. Five-year actuarial pelvic control was improved significantly with the delivery of adjuvant RT (74% vs. 49%; p = 0.011). Depth of myometrial invasion and treatment with adjuvant RT were independent predictors of pelvic control in multivariate analysis. Conclusions: Multiple prognostic factors predicting for the outcome of pathologic Stage III endometrial cancer patients were identified in this analysis. In particular, delivery of adjuvant RT seems to be a significant independent predictor for improved survival and pelvic control, suggesting that pelvic RT should be routinely considered in the management of these patients.« less

Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Oligometastatic Prostate Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muldermans, Jonathan L.; Romak, Lindsay B.; Kwon, Eugene D.

Purpose: To review outcomes of patients with oligometastatic prostate cancer (PCa) treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) and to identify variables associated with local failure. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively reviewed records of patients treated with SBRT for oligometastatic PCa. Metastasis control (ie, control of the treated lesion, MC), biochemical progression-free survival, distant progression-free survival, and overall survival were estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: Sixty-six men with 81 metastatic PCa lesions, 50 of which were castrate-resistant, were included in the analysis. Lesions were in bone (n=74), lymph nodes (n=6), or liver (n=1). Stereotactic body radiation therapy was deliveredmore » in 1 fraction to 71 lesions (88%), at a median dose of 16 Gy (range, 16-24 Gy). The remaining lesions received 30 Gy in 3 fractions (n=6) or 50 Gy in 5 fractions (n=4). Median follow-up was 16 months (range, 3-49 months). Estimated MC at 2 years was 82%. Biochemical progression-free survival, distant progression-free survival, and overall survival were 54%, 45%, and 83%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, only the dose of SBRT was significantly associated with MC; lesions treated with 16 Gy had 58% MC, and those treated with ≥18 Gy had 95% MC at 2 years (P≤.001). At 2 years, MC for lesions treated with 18 Gy (n=21) was 88%. No patient treated with ≥18 Gy in a single fraction or with any multifraction regimen had local failure. Six patients (9%) had grade 1 pain flare, and 2 (3%) had grade 2 pain flare. No grade 2 or greater late toxicities were reported. Conclusions: Stereotactic body radiation therapy for patients with oligometastatic prostate cancer provided optimal metastasis control and acceptable toxicity with doses ≥18 Gy. Biochemical progression-free survival was 54% at 16 months with the inclusion of SBRT in the treatment regimen. Stereotactic body radiation therapy should be considered in patients with castration-refractory, oligometastatic prostate cancer who have limited options for systemic therapy.« less

Support vector methods for survival analysis: a comparison between ranking and regression approaches.

PubMed

Van Belle, Vanya; Pelckmans, Kristiaan; Van Huffel, Sabine; Suykens, Johan A K

2011-10-01

To compare and evaluate ranking, regression and combined machine learning approaches for the analysis of survival data. The literature describes two approaches based on support vector machines to deal with censored observations. In the first approach the key idea is to rephrase the task as a ranking problem via the concordance index, a problem which can be solved efficiently in a context of structural risk minimization and convex optimization techniques. In a second approach, one uses a regression approach, dealing with censoring by means of inequality constraints. The goal of this paper is then twofold: (i) introducing a new model combining the ranking and regression strategy, which retains the link with existing survival models such as the proportional hazards model via transformation models; and (ii) comparison of the three techniques on 6 clinical and 3 high-dimensional datasets and discussing the relevance of these techniques over classical approaches fur survival data. We compare svm-based survival models based on ranking constraints, based on regression constraints and models based on both ranking and regression constraints. The performance of the models is compared by means of three different measures: (i) the concordance index, measuring the model's discriminating ability; (ii) the logrank test statistic, indicating whether patients with a prognostic index lower than the median prognostic index have a significant different survival than patients with a prognostic index higher than the median; and (iii) the hazard ratio after normalization to restrict the prognostic index between 0 and 1. Our results indicate a significantly better performance for models including regression constraints above models only based on ranking constraints. This work gives empirical evidence that svm-based models using regression constraints perform significantly better than svm-based models based on ranking constraints. Our experiments show a comparable performance for methods including only regression or both regression and ranking constraints on clinical data. On high dimensional data, the former model performs better. However, this approach does not have a theoretical link with standard statistical models for survival data. This link can be made by means of transformation models when ranking constraints are included. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Mortality in early-stage, surgically resected non-small cell lung cancer less than 3 cm of size: Competing risk analysis].

PubMed

Jordá Aragón, Carlos; Peñalver Cuesta, Juan Carlos; Mancheño Franch, Nuria; de Aguiar Quevedo, Karol; Vera Sempere, Francisco; Padilla Alarcón, José

2015-09-07

Survival studies of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are usually based on the Kaplan-Meier method. However, other factors not covered by this method may modify the observation of the event of interest. There are models of cumulative incidence (CI), that take into account these competing risks, enabling more accurate survival estimates and evaluation of the risk of death from other causes. We aimed to evaluate these models in resected early-stage NSCLC patients. This study included 263 patients with resected NSCLC whose diameter was ≤ 3 cm without node involvement (N0). Demographic, clinical, morphopathological and surgical variables, TNM classification and long-term evolution were analysed. To analyse CI, death by another cause was considered to be competitive event. For the univariate analysis, Gray's method was used, while Fine and Gray's method was employed for the multivariate analysis. Mortality by NSCLC was 19.4% at 5 years and 14.3% by another cause. Both curves crossed at 6.3 years, and probability of death by another cause became greater from this point. In multivariate analysis, cancer mortality was conditioned by visceral pleural invasion (VPI) (P=.001) and vascular invasion (P=.020), with age>50 years (P=.034), smoking (P=.009) and the Charlson index ≥ 2 (P=.000) being by no cancer. By the method of CI, VPI and vascular invasion conditioned cancer death in NSCLC >3 cm, while non-tumor causes of long-term death were determined. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Prognostic significance of peripheral monocyte count in patients with extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKL) has heterogeneous clinical manifestations and prognosis. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic impact of absolute monocyte count (AMC) in ENKL, and provide some immunologically relevant information for better risk stratification in patients with ENKL. Methods Retrospective data from 163 patients newly diagnosed with ENKL were analyzed. The absolute monocyte count (AMC) at diagnosis was analyzed as continuous and dichotomized variables. Independent prognostic factors of survival were determined by Cox regression analysis. Results The AMC at diagnosis were related to overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with ENKL. Multivariate analysis identified AMC as independent prognostic factors of survival, independent of International Prognostic Index (IPI) and Korean prognostic index (KPI). The prognostic index incorporating AMC and absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), another surrogate factor of immune status, could be used to stratify all 163 patients with ENKL into different prognostic groups. For patients who received chemotherapy followed by radiotherapy (102 cases), the three AMC/ALC index categories identified patients with significantly different survivals. When superimposed on IPI or KPI categories, the AMC/ALC index was better able to identify high-risk patients in the low-risk IPI or KPI category. Conclusion The baseline peripheral monocyte count is shown to be an effective prognostic indicator of survival in ENKL patients. The prognostic index related to tumor microenvironment might be helpful to identify high-risk patients with ENKL. PMID:23638998

Prognostic and survival analysis of presbyopia: The healthy twin study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lira, Adiyani; Sung, Joohon

2015-12-01

Presbyopia, a vision condition in which the eye loses its flexibility to focus on near objects, is part of ageing process which mostly perceptible in the early or mid 40s. It is well known that age is its major risk factor, while sex, alcohol, poor nutrition, ocular and systemic diseases are known as common risk factors. However, many other variables might influence the prognosis. Therefore in this paper we developed a prognostic model to estimate survival from presbyopia. 1645 participants which part of the Healthy Twin Study, a prospective cohort study that has recruited Korean adult twins and their family members based on a nation-wide registry at public health agencies since 2005, were collected and analyzed by univariate analysis as well as Cox proportional hazard model to reveal the prognostic factors for presbyopia while survival curves were calculated by Kaplan-Meier method. Besides age, sex, diabetes, and myopia; the proposed model shows that education level (especially engineering program) also contribute to the occurrence of presbyopia as well. Generally, at 47 years old, the chance of getting presbyopia becomes higher with the survival probability is less than 50%. Furthermore, our study shows that by stratifying the survival curve, MZ has shorter survival with average onset time about 45.8 compare to DZ and siblings with 47.5 years old. By providing factors that have more effects and mainly associate with presbyopia, we expect that we could help to design an intervention to control or delay its onset time.

Dynamic prognostication using conditional survival analysis for patients with operable lung adenocarcinoma

PubMed Central

Kim, Wooil; Lee, Ho Yun; Jung, Sin-Ho; Woo, Min-Ah; Kim, Hong Kwan; Choi, Yong Soo; Kim, Jhingook; Zo, Jae Ill; Shim, Young Mog; Han, Joungho; Jeong, Ji Yun; Choi, Joon Young; Lee, Kyung Soo

2017-01-01

Purpose To evaluate conditional survival among patients with surgically resected stage I-IIIa lung adenocarcinoma and identify changes in prognostic contributions for various prognostic factors over time. Patients and Methods We performed conditional survival analysis at each t0 (=0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 years) for 723 consecutive patients who underwent surgical resection for lung adenocarcinoma, stratified by various clinico-demographic features, as well as pathologic and imaging (tumor-shadow disappearance ratio [TDR] on CT and maximum standardized uptake value [SUVmax] on PET) characteristics. Uni- and multivariableCox regression analyses were performed to evaluate relationships between those variables and conditional survival. Results Three-year conditional overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were 92.12% and 75.51% at baseline, but improved steadily up to 98.33% and 95.95% at 5 years after surgery. In contrast to demographic factors, pathologic (stage, subtype, pathologic grade and differentiation) and radiologic factors (TDR and SUVmax) maintained a statistically significant association with subseqeunt 3-year OS until 3 years after surgery. According to the multivariableanalysis, high SUVmax and low TDR value were independent predictors of subsequent 3-year OS and DFS at baseline, 1 and 2 years after surgery, respectively. Conclusion Our findings based on CS provide theoretical background for clinicians to plan longer period of surveillance following lung adenocarcinoma resection in survivors with preoperatively high SUVmax and low TDR on PET-CT and chest CT, respectively. PMID:27793026

Improved survival outcomes with the incidental use of beta-blockers among patients with non-small-cell lung cancer treated with definitive radiation therapy

PubMed Central

Wang, H. M.; Liao, Z. X.; Komaki, R.; Welsh, J. W.; O'Reilly, M. S.; Chang, J. Y.; Zhuang, Y.; Levy, L. B.; Lu, C.; Gomez, D. R.

2013-01-01

Background Preclinical studies have shown that norepinephrine can directly stimulate tumor cell migration and that this effect is mediated by the beta-adrenergic receptor. Patients and methods We retrospectively reviewed 722 patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who received definitive radiotherapy (RT). A Cox proportional hazard model was utilized to determine the association between beta-blocker intake and locoregional progression-free survival (LRPFS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS). Results In univariate analysis, patients taking beta-blockers (n = 155) had improved DMFS (P < 0.01), DFS (P < 0.01), and OS (P = 0.01), but not LRPFS (P = 0.33) compared with patients not taking beta-blockers (n = 567). In multivariate analysis, beta-blocker intake was associated with a significantly better DMFS [hazard ratio (HR), 0.67; P = 0.01], DFS (HR, 0.74; P = 0.02), and OS (HR, 0.78; P = 0.02) with adjustment for age, Karnofsky performance score, stage, histology type, concurrent chemotherapy, radiation dose, gross tumor volume, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and the use of aspirin. There was no association of beta-blocker use with LRPFS (HR = 0.91, P = 0.63). Conclusion Beta-blocker use is associated with improved DMFS, DFS, and OS in this large cohort of NSCLC patients. Future prospective trials can validate these retrospective findings and determine whether the length and timing of beta-blocker use influence survival outcomes. PMID:23300016

Clinical outcome after pulmonary metastasectomy from primary hepatocellular carcinoma: Analysis of prognostic factors

PubMed Central

Kwon, Jong-Bum; Park, Khun; Kim, Young-Du; Seo, Jong-Hee; Moon, Seok-Whan; Cho, Deog-Gon; Kim, Yong-Whan; Kim, Dong-Goo; Yoon, Seung-Kew; Lim, Hyeon-Woo

2008-01-01

AIM: To review the surgical outcomes in terms of the surgical indications and relevant prognostic factors. METHODS: Sixteen patients underwent therapeutic lung surgery between March 1999 and May 2006. The observation period was terminated on May 31, 2007. The surgical outcomes and the clinicopathological factors were compared. RESULTS: There was no mortality or major morbidity encountered in this study. The mean follow-up period after metastasectomy was 26.7 ± 28.2 (range: 1-99 mo), and the median survival time was 20 mo. The 1- and 5-year survival rates were 56% and 26%, respectively. At the end of the follow-up, 1 patient died from hepatic failure without recurrence, 6 died from hepatic failure with a recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and 4 died from recurrent HCC with cachexia. Among several clinical factors, Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that liver transplantation as a treatment for the primary lesion, grade of cell differentiation, and negative evidence HBV infection were independent predictive factors. On Cox’s proportional hazard model, there were no significant factors affecting survival after pulmonary metastasectomy in patients with HCC. CONCLUSION: A metastasectomy should be performed before other treatments in selected patients. Although not significant, patients with liver transplantation of a primary HCC survived longer. Liver transplantation might be the most beneficial modality that can offer patients better survival. A multi-institutional and collaborative study would be needed for identifying clinical prognostic factors predicting survival in patients with HCC and lung metastasis. PMID:18837090

Lung Radiofrequency Ablation for the Treatment of Unresectable Recurrent Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer After Surgical Intervention

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kodama, Hiroshi, E-mail: h-kodama@clin.medic.mie-u.ac.jp; Yamakado, Koichiro; Takaki, Haruyuki

Purpose: A retrospective evaluation was done of clinical utility of lung radiofrequency (RF) ablation in recurrent non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) after surgical intervention. Methods: During May 2003 to October 2010, 44 consecutive patients (26 male and 18 female) received curative lung RF ablation for 51 recurrent NSCLC (mean diameter 1.7 {+-} 0.9 cm, range 0.6 to 4.0) after surgical intervention. Safety, tumor progression rate, overall survival, and recurrence-free survival were evaluated. Prognostic factors were evaluated in multivariate analysis. Results: A total of 55 lung RF sessions were performed. Pneumothorax requiring pluerosclerosis (n = 2) and surgical suture (n = 1)more » were the only grade 3 or 4 adverse events (5.5%, 3 of 55). During mean follow-up of 28.6 {+-} 20.3 months (range 1 to 98), local tumor progression was found in 5 patients (11.4%, 5 of 44). The 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates were 97.7, 72.9, and 55.7%, respectively. The 1- and 3-year recurrence-free survival rates were 76.7 and 41.1%, respectively. Tumor size and sex were independent significant prognostic factors in multivariate analysis. The 5-year survival rates were 73.3% in 18 women and 60.5% in 38 patients who had small tumors measuring {<=}3 cm. Conclusion: Our results suggest that lung RF ablation is a safe and useful therapeutic option for obtaining long-term survival in treated patients.« less

IMPACT ON SURVIVAL OF 12 VERSUS 3 MONTHLY CYCLES OF PACLITAXEL (175 MG/M2) ADMINISTERED TO PATIENTS WITH ADVANCED OVARIAN CANCER WHO ATTAINED A COMPLETE RESPONSE TO PRIMARY PLATINUM-PACLITAXEL: FOLLOW-UP OF A SOUTHWEST ONCOLOGY GROUP AND GYNECOLOGIC ONCOLOGY GROUP PHASE 3 TRIAL

PubMed Central

Markman, Maurie; Liu, PY; Moon, James; Monk, Bradley J.; Copeland, Larry; Wilczynski, Sharon; Alberts, David

2009-01-01

Objectives A SWOG/GOG phase 3 trial exploring the impact of 12-monthly cycles of paclitaxel given to patients with advanced ovarian cancer who achieved a complete response to primary chemotherapy was discontinued by the Data Safety and Monitoring Committee when a prospectively-defined interim analysis revealed a highly statistically significant improvement in progression-free survival (PFS). At study closure, it was too early to assess the impact on overall survival. Methods Patients (n = 296) received either 3 or 12 monthly cycles of paclitaxel (175 mg/m2 over 3-hours). Results Of the 146 patients on the 3-cycle arm, 9 (6%) received > 3-cycles. Median (12 versus 3 cycle; intention-to-treat analysis) updated PFS (all pts) 22 versus 14 months, p=0.006; overall survival (all pts) 53 versus 48 months, p=0.34. Conclusion Twelve cycles of single agent maintenance paclitaxel significantly improves PFS. Explanations for the lack of a favorable influence on overall survival include: (a) treatment at relapse equalized outcome; (b) the sample size was insufficient to reveal a difference; (c) “crossover” of patients from 3 cycles to longer treatment masked a potential difference. An ongoing phase 3 trial will hopefully provide a definitive answer to the question of the impact of this maintenance strategy on overall survival. PMID:19447479

Applications of statistics to medical science, III. Correlation and regression.

PubMed

Watanabe, Hiroshi

2012-01-01

In this third part of a series surveying medical statistics, the concepts of correlation and regression are reviewed. In particular, methods of linear regression and logistic regression are discussed. Arguments related to survival analysis will be made in a subsequent paper.

Implementing a novel movement-based approach to inferring parturition and neonate caribou calf survival.

PubMed

Bonar, Maegwin; Ellington, E Hance; Lewis, Keith P; Vander Wal, Eric

2018-01-01

In ungulates, parturition is correlated with a reduction in movement rate. With advances in movement-based technologies comes an opportunity to develop new techniques to assess reproduction in wild ungulates that are less invasive and reduce biases. DeMars et al. (2013, Ecology and Evolution 3:4149-4160) proposed two promising new methods (individual- and population-based; the DeMars model) that use GPS inter-fix step length of adult female caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) to infer parturition and neonate survival. Our objective was to apply the DeMars model to caribou populations that may violate model assumptions for retrospective analysis of parturition and calf survival. We extended the use of the DeMars model after assigning parturition and calf mortality status by examining herd-wide distributions of parturition date, calf mortality date, and survival. We used the DeMars model to estimate parturition and calf mortality events and compared them with the known parturition and calf mortality events from collared adult females (n = 19). We also used the DeMars model to estimate parturition and calf mortality events for collared female caribou with unknown parturition and calf mortality events (n = 43) and instead derived herd-wide estimates of calf survival as well as distributions of parturition and calf mortality dates and compared them to herd-wide estimates generated from calves fitted with VHF collars (n = 134). For our data, the individual-based method was effective at predicting calf mortality, but was not effective at predicting parturition. The population-based method was more effective at predicting parturition but was not effective at predicting calf mortality. At the herd-level, the predicted distributions of parturition date from both methods differed from each other and from the distribution derived from the parturition dates of VHF-collared calves (log-ranked test: χ2 = 40.5, df = 2, p < 0.01). The predicted distributions of calf mortality dates from both methods were similar to the observed distribution derived from VHF-collared calves. Both methods underestimated herd-wide calf survival based on VHF-collared calves, however, a combination of the individual- and population-based methods produced herd-wide survival estimates similar to estimates generated from collared calves. The limitations we experienced when applying the DeMars model could result from the shortcomings in our data violating model assumptions. However despite the differences in our caribou systems, with proper validation techniques the framework in the DeMars model is sufficient to make inferences on parturition and calf mortality.

Implementing a novel movement-based approach to inferring parturition and neonate caribou calf survival

PubMed Central

Ellington, E. Hance; Lewis, Keith P.; Vander Wal, Eric

2018-01-01

In ungulates, parturition is correlated with a reduction in movement rate. With advances in movement-based technologies comes an opportunity to develop new techniques to assess reproduction in wild ungulates that are less invasive and reduce biases. DeMars et al. (2013, Ecology and Evolution 3:4149–4160) proposed two promising new methods (individual- and population-based; the DeMars model) that use GPS inter-fix step length of adult female caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) to infer parturition and neonate survival. Our objective was to apply the DeMars model to caribou populations that may violate model assumptions for retrospective analysis of parturition and calf survival. We extended the use of the DeMars model after assigning parturition and calf mortality status by examining herd-wide distributions of parturition date, calf mortality date, and survival. We used the DeMars model to estimate parturition and calf mortality events and compared them with the known parturition and calf mortality events from collared adult females (n = 19). We also used the DeMars model to estimate parturition and calf mortality events for collared female caribou with unknown parturition and calf mortality events (n = 43) and instead derived herd-wide estimates of calf survival as well as distributions of parturition and calf mortality dates and compared them to herd-wide estimates generated from calves fitted with VHF collars (n = 134). For our data, the individual-based method was effective at predicting calf mortality, but was not effective at predicting parturition. The population-based method was more effective at predicting parturition but was not effective at predicting calf mortality. At the herd-level, the predicted distributions of parturition date from both methods differed from each other and from the distribution derived from the parturition dates of VHF-collared calves (log-ranked test: χ2 = 40.5, df = 2, p < 0.01). The predicted distributions of calf mortality dates from both methods were similar to the observed distribution derived from VHF-collared calves. Both methods underestimated herd-wide calf survival based on VHF-collared calves, however, a combination of the individual- and population-based methods produced herd-wide survival estimates similar to estimates generated from collared calves. The limitations we experienced when applying the DeMars model could result from the shortcomings in our data violating model assumptions. However despite the differences in our caribou systems, with proper validation techniques the framework in the DeMars model is sufficient to make inferences on parturition and calf mortality. PMID:29466451

Evaluation of factors associated with survival in dogs with untreated nasal carcinomas: 139 cases (1993-2003).

PubMed

Rassnick, Kenneth M; Goldkamp, Carrie E; Erb, Hollis N; Scrivani, Peter V; Njaa, Bradley L; Gieger, Tracy L; Turek, Michelle M; McNiel, Elizabeth A; Proulx, David R; Chun, Ruthanne; Mauldin, Glenna E; Phillips, Brenda S; Kristal, Orna

2006-08-01

To evaluate factors associated with survival in dogs with nasal carcinomas that did not receive treatment or received only palliative treatment. Retrospective case series. 139 dogs with histologically confirmed nasal carcinomas. Medical records, computed tomography images, and biopsy specimens of nasal carcinomas were reviewed. Only dogs that were not treated with radiation, surgery, chemotherapy, or immunotherapy and that survived > or = 7 days from the date of diagnosis were included. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate survival time. Factors potentially associated with survival were compared by use of log-rank and Wilcoxon rank sum tests. Multivariable survival analysis was performed by use of the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Overall median survival time was 95 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 73 to 113 days; range, 7 to 1,114 days). In dogs with epistaxis, the hazard of dying was 2.3 times that of dogs that did not have epistaxis. Median survival time of 107 dogs with epistaxis was 88 days (95% CI, 65 to 106 days) and that of 32 dogs without epistaxis was 224 days (95% CI, 54 to 467 days). The prognosis of dogs with untreated nasal carcinomas is poor. Treatment strategies to improve outcome should be pursued.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sole, Claudio V., E-mail: csole@iram.cl; School of Medicine, Complutense University, Madrid; Calvo, Felipe A.

Purpose: To assess long-term outcomes and toxicity of intraoperative electron-beam radiation therapy (IOERT) in the management of pediatric patients with Ewing sarcomas (EWS) and rhabdomyosarcomas (RMS). Methods and Materials: Seventy-one sarcoma (EWS n=37, 52%; RMS n=34, 48%) patients underwent IOERT for primary (n=46, 65%) or locally recurrent sarcomas (n=25, 35%) from May 1983 to November 2012. Local control (LC), overall survival (OS), and disease-free survival were estimated using Kaplan-Meier methods. For survival outcomes, potential associations were assessed in univariate and multivariate analyses using the Cox proportional hazards model. Results: After a median follow-up of 72 months (range, 4-310 months), 10-year LC, disease-freemore » survival, and OS was 74%, 57%, and 68%, respectively. In multivariate analysis after adjustment for other covariates, disease status (P=.04 and P=.05) and R1 margin status (P<.01 and P=.04) remained significantly associated with LC and OS. Nine patients (13%) reported severe chronic toxicity events (all grade 3). Conclusions: A multimodal IOERT-containing approach is a well-tolerated component of treatment for pediatric EWS and RMS patients, allowing reduction or substitution of external beam radiation exposure while maintaining high local control rates.« less

Program CONTRAST--A general program for the analysis of several survival or recovery rate estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.

1989-01-01

This manual describes the use of program CONTRAST, which implements a generalized procedure for the comparison of several rate estimates. This method can be used to test both simple and composite hypotheses about rate estimates, and we discuss its application to multiple comparisons of survival rate estimates. Several examples of the use of program CONTRAST are presented. Program CONTRAST will run on IBM-cimpatible computers, and requires estimates of the rates to be tested, along with associated variance and covariance estimates.

Preoperative serum fibrinogen is an independent prognostic factor in operable esophageal cancer

PubMed Central

Zhang, Shui-Shen; Lei, Yi-Yan; Cai, Xiao-Li; Yang, Hong; Xia, Xin; Luo, Kong-Jia; Su, Chun-Hua; Zou, Jian-Yong; Zeng, Bo; Hu, Yi; Luo, Hong-He

2016-01-01

In order to fully elucidate the association between serum fibrinogen and prognosis of esophageal cancer, we examined serum fibrinogen concentrations in 1512 patients who underwent esophagectomy by the Clauss method. The impact of fibrinogen on overall survival and disease-free survival was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazard models. Hyperfibrinogenemia was significantly associated with older age, male gender, smoking, alcohol consumption, weight loss, advanced pathological T stage and lymph node metastasis. Patients with hyperfibrinogenemia exhibited poor OS (HR=1.20, 95%CI: 1.04-1.38, P=0.012) and DFS (HR=1.18, 95%CI: 1.03-1.35, P=0.019). Subgroup analysis further exhibited an significant association between hyperfibrinogenemia and poor OS (P<0.001), DFS (P<0.001) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (P<0.001) and early pathological stage (I-II) (P=0.001). Collectively, this study indicates that preoperative serum fibrinogen is an independent prognostic factor for survival in esophageal cancer. PMID:27009857

SU-E-T-427: Cell Surviving Fractions Derived From Tumor-Volume Variation During Radiotherapy for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Comparison with Predictive Assays

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chvetsov, A; Schwartz, J; Mayr, N

2014-06-01

Purpose: To show that a distribution of cell surviving fractions S{sub 2} in a heterogeneous group of patients can be derived from tumor-volume variation curves during radiotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer. Methods: Our analysis was based on two data sets of tumor-volume variation curves for heterogeneous groups of 17 patients treated for nonsmall cell lung cancer with conventional dose fractionation. The data sets were obtained previously at two independent institutions by using megavoltage (MV) computed tomography (CT). Statistical distributions of cell surviving fractions S{sup 2} and cell clearance half-lives of lethally damaged cells T1/2 have been reconstructed in eachmore » patient group by using a version of the two-level cell population tumor response model and a simulated annealing algorithm. The reconstructed statistical distributions of the cell surviving fractions have been compared to the distributions measured using predictive assays in vitro. Results: Non-small cell lung cancer presents certain difficulties for modeling surviving fractions using tumor-volume variation curves because of relatively large fractional hypoxic volume, low gradient of tumor-volume response, and possible uncertainties due to breathing motion. Despite these difficulties, cell surviving fractions S{sub 2} for non-small cell lung cancer derived from tumor-volume variation measured at different institutions have similar probability density functions (PDFs) with mean values of 0.30 and 0.43 and standard deviations of 0.13 and 0.18, respectively. The PDFs for cell surviving fractions S{sup 2} reconstructed from tumor volume variation agree with the PDF measured in vitro. Comparison of the reconstructed cell surviving fractions with patient survival data shows that the patient survival time decreases as the cell surviving fraction increases. Conclusion: The data obtained in this work suggests that the cell surviving fractions S{sub 2} can be reconstructed from the tumor volume variation curves measured during radiotherapy with conventional fractionation. The proposed method can be used for treatment evaluation and adaptation.« less

Adult survival and population growth rate in Colorado big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Stanley, T.R.

2011-01-01

We studied adult survival and population growth at multiple maternity colonies of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado. We investigated hypotheses about survival using information-theoretic methods and mark-recapture analyses based on passive detection of adult females tagged with passive integrated transponders. We constructed a 3-stage life-history matrix model to estimate population growth rate (??) and assessed the relative importance of adult survival and other life-history parameters to population growth through elasticity and sensitivity analysis. Annual adult survival at 5 maternity colonies monitored from 2001 to 2005 was estimated at 0.79 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.77-0.82). Adult survival varied by year and roost, with low survival during an extreme drought year, a finding with negative implications for bat populations because of the likelihood of increasing drought in western North America due to global climate change. Adult survival during winter was higher than in summer, and mean life expectancies calculated from survival estimates were lower than maximum longevity records. We modeled adult survival with recruitment parameter estimates from the same population. The study population was growing (?? = 1.096; 95% CI = 1.057-1.135). Adult survival was the most important demographic parameter for population growth. Growth clearly had the highest elasticity to adult survival, followed by juvenile survival and adult fecundity (approximately equivalent in rank). Elasticity was lowest for fecundity of yearlings. The relative importances of the various life-history parameters for population growth rate are similar to those of large mammals. ?? 2011 American Society of Mammalogists.

Formulation of the Multi-Hit Model With a Non-Poisson Distribution of Hits

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vassiliev, Oleg N., E-mail: Oleg.Vassiliev@albertahealthservices.ca

2012-07-15

Purpose: We proposed a formulation of the multi-hit single-target model in which the Poisson distribution of hits was replaced by a combination of two distributions: one for the number of particles entering the target and one for the number of hits a particle entering the target produces. Such an approach reflects the fact that radiation damage is a result of two different random processes: particle emission by a radiation source and interaction of particles with matter inside the target. Methods and Materials: Poisson distribution is well justified for the first of the two processes. The second distribution depends on howmore » a hit is defined. To test our approach, we assumed that the second distribution was also a Poisson distribution. The two distributions combined resulted in a non-Poisson distribution. We tested the proposed model by comparing it with previously reported data for DNA single- and double-strand breaks induced by protons and electrons, for survival of a range of cell lines, and variation of the initial slopes of survival curves with radiation quality for heavy-ion beams. Results: Analysis of cell survival equations for this new model showed that they had realistic properties overall, such as the initial and high-dose slopes of survival curves, the shoulder, and relative biological effectiveness (RBE) In most cases tested, a better fit of survival curves was achieved with the new model than with the linear-quadratic model. The results also suggested that the proposed approach may extend the multi-hit model beyond its traditional role in analysis of survival curves to predicting effects of radiation quality and analysis of DNA strand breaks. Conclusions: Our model, although conceptually simple, performed well in all tests. The model was able to consistently fit data for both cell survival and DNA single- and double-strand breaks. It correctly predicted the dependence of radiation effects on parameters of radiation quality.« less

Predictive factors for survival and correlation to toxicity in advanced Stage III non-small cell lung cancer patients with concurrent chemoradiation.

PubMed

Kim, Yong-Hyub; Ahn, Sung-Ja; Kim, Young-Chul; Kim, Kyu-Sik; Oh, In-Jae; Ban, Hee-Jung; Chung, Woong-Ki; Nam, Taek-Keun; Yoon, Mee Sun; Jeong, Jae-Uk; Song, Ju-Young

2016-02-01

Concurrent chemoradiotherapy is the standard treatment for locally advanced Stage III non-small cell lung cancer in patients with a good performance status and minimal weight loss. This study aimed to define subgroups with different survival outcomes and identify correlations with the radiation-related toxicities. We retrospectively reviewed 381 locally advanced Stage III non-small cell lung cancer patients with a good performance status or weight loss of <10% who received concurrent chemoradiotherapy between 2004 and 2011. Three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy was administered once daily, combined with weekly chemotherapy. The Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival comparison and Cox regression for multivariate analysis. Multivariate analysis was performed using all variables with P values <0.1 from the univariate analysis. Median survival of all patients was 24 months. Age > 75 years, the diffusion lung capacity for carbon monoxide ≤80%, gross tumor volume ≥100 cm(3) and subcarinal nodal involvement were the statistically significant predictive factors for poor overall survival both in univariate and multivariate analyses. Patients were classified into four groups according to these four predictive factors. The median survival times were 36, 29, 18 and 14 months in Groups I, II, III and IV, respectively (P < 0.001). Rates of esophageal or lung toxicity ≥Grade 3 were 5.9, 14.1, 12.5 and 22.2%, respectively. The radiotherapy interruption rate differed significantly between the prognostic subgroups; 8.8, 15.4, 22.7 and 30.6%, respectively (P = 0.017). Severe toxicity and interruption of radiotherapy were more frequent in patients with multiple adverse predictive factors. To maintain the survival benefit in patients with concurrent chemoradiotherapy, strategies to reduce treatment-related toxicities need to be deeply considered. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Clinicopathological significance of chemokine receptor (CCR1, CCR3, CCR4, CCR5, CCR7 and CXCR4) expression in head and neck squamous cell carcinomas.

PubMed

González-Arriagada, Wilfredo A; Lozano-Burgos, Carlos; Zúñiga-Moreta, Rodrigo; González-Díaz, Paulina; Coletta, Ricardo D

2018-05-24

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma shows high prevalence of lymph node metastasis at diagnosis, and despite the advances in treatment, the overall 5-year survival is still under 50%. Chemokine receptors have a role in the development and progression of cancer, but their effect in head and neck carcinoma remains poorly characterised. This study aimed to assess the prognostic value of CCR1, CCR3, CCR4, CCR5, CCR7 and CXCR4 in head and neck squamous cell carcinomas. Immunohistochemical expression of chemokine receptors was evaluated in a retrospective cohort of 76 cases of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. Clinicopathological associations were analysed using the chi-square test, survival curves were analysed according to the Kaplan-Meier method, and the Cox proportional hazard model was applied for multivariate survival analysis. The chemokine receptors were highly expressed in primary carcinomas, except for CCR1 and CCR3. Significant associations were detected, including the associations between CCR5 expression and lymph node metastasis (N stage, P = .03), advanced clinical stage (P = .003), poor differentiation of tumours (P = .05) and recurrence (P = .01). The high expression of CCR5 was also associated with shortened disease-free survival (HR: 2.85, 95% CI: 1.09-8.14, P = .05), but the association did not withstand the Cox multivariate survival analysis. At univariate analysis, high expression of CCR7 was associated with disease-free survival and low levels of CXCR4 were significantly associated with both disease-specific and disease-free survival. These findings show that chemokine receptors may have an important role in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma progression, regional lymph node metastasis and recurrence. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Factors Influencing Relapse-Free Survival in Merkel Cell Carcinoma of the Lower Limb-A Review of 60 Cases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Poulsen, Michael, E-mail: michael_poulsen@health.qld.gov.a; Round, Caroline; Keller, Jacqui

2010-02-01

Purpose: Factors affecting relapse-free survival (RFS) in patients with Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) of the lower limb were reviewed. Methods and Materials: The records of 60 patients from 1986 to 2005 with a diagnosis of MCC of the lower limb or buttock were retrospectively reviewed. The patients were treated with curative intent with surgery, radiation, or chemotherapy. Results: The 5-year overall survival, disease-specific survival, and RFS were 53%, 61%, and 20%, respectively. Factors influencing RFS were analyzed using univariate analysis. It appeared that recurrent disease worsened RFS (p = 0.03) and the addition of any radiotherapy improved RFS (p <0.001),more » as did radiotherapy to the inguinal nodes (p = 0.01) or primary site and inguinal nodes (p = 0.003). Age, surgical margins, and stage were not statistically significant. On multivariate analysis, the only significant factor was the addition of radiotherapy (hazard ratio = 0.51 p = 0.03). Conclusion: The addition of radiotherapy improves RFS compared with surgery alone. Elective treatment should be given to the inguinal nodes to reduce the risk of relapse.« less

[Determinants of long-term survival in 38 patients with carcinoma of ampulla of Vater treated by local resection].

PubMed

Liu, Ning; Liang, Han; Li, Qiang; Wang, Dian-chang; Zhang, Ru-peng; Wang, Jia-cang; Hao, Xi-shan

2005-10-01

To investigate determinants of long-term survival for carcinoma of ampulla of Vater treated by local resection. The clinical and pathological data of 38 such patients treated by local resection from 1983 to 2003 were retrospectively analyzed. According to UICC staging system, there were T1 30, T2 7 and T3 1. Lymph nodes were involved in 4 during operation which was present in primary lesions larger than 2 cm across. All patients were treated by local resection. At first, external palpation was carried out to ascertain accessibility. Then with the duodenum opened, direct exploration was carried out. On deciding for resection, the common bile duct was probe explored which guided the circumferential ring resection 1 cm, away from the tumor, including all layers of duodenum, ampula and partial bile and terminal pancreatic ducts and the posterial wall of duodenum was completed in steps. Meticulous care was taken not to suture the pancreatic duct and endotheliation was ensured at the mouth of common bile duct and duodenum. The basal tissue was frozen sectioned to ensure negative stumps. The gall bladder of 6 patients was also resected. SPSS 10.0 software was used in data processing, log-rank test used in univariate analysis and Cox equation for multivariate analysis and Kaplan-Meirer method for the survival rates. Thirty-eight patients received local resection giving an operative mortality of 0% and morbidity of 13.2%. The 1-, 5- and 10-year survival rate was 83.5%, 51.4%, and 38.9%, respectively, with a median survival of 3.35 years. Up to now, 13 patients have survived for more than five years and 2 patients beyond ten years. The tumour size, tumour grading, lymph node status and UICC stage were significant prognostic factors in univariate analysis. However, only lymph node status was a statistically independent predictor of prognosis in multivariate analysis. Local excision is safe giving low morbidity and good survival in carefully selected cases. Preferably it is indicated only in high risk patients with a pT1 and well differentiated ampullary cancer smaller than 1 cm in diameter.

Prognostic Indexes for Brain Metastases: Which Is the Most Powerful?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arruda Viani, Gustavo, E-mail: gusviani@gmail.com; Bernardes da Silva, Lucas Godoi; Stefano, Eduardo Jose

Purpose: The purpose of the present study was to compare the prognostic indexes (PIs) of patients with brain metastases (BMs) treated with whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) using an artificial neural network. This analysis is important, because it evaluates the prognostic power of each PI to guide clinical decision-making and outcomes research. Methods and Materials: A retrospective prognostic study was conducted of 412 patients with BMs who underwent WBRT between April 1998 and March 2010. The eligibility criteria for patients included having undergone WBRT or WBRT plus neurosurgery. The data were analyzed using the artificial neural network. The input neural datamore » consisted of all prognostic factors included in the 5 PIs (recursive partitioning analysis, graded prognostic assessment [GPA], basic score for BMs, Rotterdam score, and Germany score). The data set was randomly divided into 300 training and 112 testing examples for survival prediction. All 5 PIs were compared using our database of 412 patients with BMs. The sensibility of the 5 indexes to predict survival according to their input variables was determined statistically using receiver operating characteristic curves. The importance of each variable from each PI was subsequently evaluated. Results: The overall 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival rate was 22%, 10.2%, and 5.1%, respectively. All classes of PIs were significantly associated with survival (recursive partitioning analysis, P < .0001; GPA, P < .0001; basic score for BMs, P = .002; Rotterdam score, P = .001; and Germany score, P < .0001). Comparing the areas under the curves, the GPA was statistically most sensitive in predicting survival (GPA, 86%; recursive partitioning analysis, 81%; basic score for BMs, 79%; Rotterdam, 73%; and Germany score, 77%; P < .001). Among the variables included in each PI, the performance status and presence of extracranial metastases were the most important factors. Conclusion: A variety of prognostic models describe the survival of patients with BMs to a more or less satisfactory degree. Among the 5 PIs evaluated in the present study, GPA was the most powerful in predicting survival. Additional studies should include emerging biologic prognostic factors to improve the sensibility of these PIs.« less

Outcomes of surgery for gastric cancer with distant metastases: a retrospective study from the SEER database

PubMed Central

Weng, Shanshan; Dong, Caixia; Zhu, Lizhen; Yang, Ziru; Zhong, Jing; Yuan, Ying

2017-01-01

Background The role of surgical therapy in gastric cancer patients with distant metastases remains controversial. This retrospective analysis was performed to identify whether gastric cancer patients with distant metastases might benefit from surgery. Patients and methods A total of 5185 patients from the SEER database who were initially diagnosed with histologically confirmed gastric cancer with distant metastases from 2004 to 2009 were included. Patients were divided into the following three groups: patients who underwent resection of both the primary tumor and distant metastatic tumors (‘PMTR’ group), patients who only underwent resection of the primary tumor (‘PTR’ group) and patients who did not undergo any surgery (‘No surgery’ group). We employed the Kaplan-Meier analysis, the log-rank test and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models to estimate the survival time of the different groups. Results A total of 5185 patients had a median survival time (MST) of 9.0 months. The improvement in survival of the ‘PMTR’ and ‘PTR’ groups was significantly different compared with that of the ‘No surgery’ group (MST, 12.0 vs 12.0 vs 9.0 months, respectively, P<0.001; 1-year survival rate, 49.6% vs 49.1% vs 30.1%, respectively, P<0.001; 3-year survival rate, 12.5% vs 15.1% vs 5.8%, respectively, P<0.001), whereas no significant difference was found between the ‘PMTR’ group and ‘PTR’ group (P=0.642). Multivariate Cox proportional analysis showed that surgery was an independent prognostic factor (‘PMTR’, hazard ratio (HR) =0.648, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.574-0.733, P<0.001; ‘PTR’, HR=0.631, 95% CI 0.583-0.684, P<0.001). Conclusions This retrospective analysis demonstrated that combined PTR and metastasectomy or PTR alone were independent prognostic factors for survival improvement in gastric cancer patients with distant metastases. Because no statistically significant difference in survival was observed between the ‘PMTR’ group and ‘PTR’ group, PTR, which is a more minor surgery, might be more appropriate than PMTR in clinical practice for gastric cancer patients with distant metastases. PMID:28008147

Estimation of brood and nest survival: Comparative methods in the presence of heterogeneity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manly, Bryan F.J.; Schmutz, Joel A.

2001-01-01

The Mayfield method has been widely used for estimating survival of nests and young animals, especially when data are collected at irregular observation intervals. However, this method assumes survival is constant throughout the study period, which often ignores biologically relevant variation and may lead to biased survival estimates. We examined the bias and accuracy of 1 modification to the Mayfield method that allows for temporal variation in survival, and we developed and similarly tested 2 additional methods. One of these 2 new methods is simply an iterative extension of Klett and Johnson's method, which we refer to as the Iterative Mayfield method and bears similarity to Kaplan-Meier methods. The other method uses maximum likelihood techniques for estimation and is best applied to survival of animals in groups or families, rather than as independent individuals. We also examined how robust these estimators are to heterogeneity in the data, which can arise from such sources as dependent survival probabilities among siblings, inherent differences among families, and adoption. Testing of estimator performance with respect to bias, accuracy, and heterogeneity was done using simulations that mimicked a study of survival of emperor goose (Chen canagica) goslings. Assuming constant survival for inappropriately long periods of time or use of Klett and Johnson's methods resulted in large bias or poor accuracy (often >5% bias or root mean square error) compared to our Iterative Mayfield or maximum likelihood methods. Overall, estimator performance was slightly better with our Iterative Mayfield than our maximum likelihood method, but the maximum likelihood method provides a more rigorous framework for testing covariates and explicity models a heterogeneity factor. We demonstrated use of all estimators with data from emperor goose goslings. We advocate that future studies use the new methods outlined here rather than the traditional Mayfield method or its previous modifications.

SU-E-T-119: Analysis the Efficacy of Different Radiotherapy Methods and Failure Mode in No-Metastasis Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yankun, C; Zhihui, T; Runxiao, L

2015-06-15

Purpose: To evaluate the curative effect of radio (chemo) therapy and mode of treatment failure in no-metastasis and lesion length ≤ 5.0cm esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Methods: There were 158 eligible patients were retrospectively analyzed, to analysis the curative effect of radio (chemo) therapy, prognosis factors, toxicity and prognostic index model. Results: To all patients the 1, 3, 5 overall survival rate were 83.54%, 52.53%, 32.58%, the local recurrence rate were 15.08%, 33.60% and 38.14%; distant metastasis rate were 10.64%, 25.21% and 36.06%; tumor specific survival rate were 76.64%, 54.07% and 44.51%. Multivariate analysis showed that patients with ECOGmore » grade (χ2=13.945, P=0.000), short-term effect (χ2=19.360, P=0.000) and different radiotherapy methods (χ2=9.866, P=0.002) as the independent prognostic factors. Prognostic index model showed that the survival rate was significantly higher in the lower value of PI group than in the larger value of PI group (χ2=49.19, P=0.0000). In our whole group, there were simple locoregional recurrence (LR) 40 cases (25.3%), simple Distant metastasis (DM) 31 cases (19.6%), LR and DM in 14 cases (8.9%) after treatment. The chi-square test showed that there were no significant difference in the incidence of Elective Nodal Irradiation (ENI )and Involved Field Irradiation (IFI) patients with LR and DM ( χ2=2.363, 2.950, P=0.124, 0.085). Conclusion: Radio (chemo) therapy has a good curative effect in no-metastasis and lesion length ≤ 5.0cm ESCC patients.« less

Primary Localization and Tumor Thickness as Prognostic Factors of Survival in Patients with Mucosal Melanoma

PubMed Central

Mehra, Tarun; Grözinger, Gerd; Mann, Steven; Guenova, Emmanuella; Moos, Rudolf; Röcken, Martin; Claussen, Claus Detlef; Dummer, Reinhard; Clasen, Stephan

2014-01-01

Background Data on survival with mucosal melanoma and on prognostic factors of are scarce. It is still unclear if the disease course allows for mucosal melanoma to be treated as primary cutaneous melanoma or if differences in overall survival patterns require adapted therapeutic approaches. Furthermore, this investigation is the first to present 10-year survival rates for mucosal melanomas of different anatomical localizations. Methodology 116 cases from Sep 10 1984 until Feb 15 2011 retrieved from the Comprehensive Cancer Center and of the Central Register of the German Dermatologic Society databases in Tübingen were included in our analysis. We recorded anatomical location and tumor thickness, and estimated overall survival at 2, 5 and 10 years and the mean overall survival time. Survival times were analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier method. The log-rank test was used to compare survival times by localizations and by T-stages. Principal Findings We found a median overall survival time of 80.9 months, with an overall 2-year survival of 71.7%, 5-year survival of 55.8% and 10-year survival of 38.3%. The 10-year survival rates for patients with T1, T2, T3 or T4 stage tumors were 100.0%, 77.9%, 66.3% and 10.6% respectively. 10-year survival of patients with melanomas of the vulva was 64.5% in comparison to 22.3% of patients with non-vulva mucosal melanomas. Conclusion Survival times differed significantly between patients with melanomas of the vulva compared to the rest (p = 0.0006). It also depends on T-stage at the time of diagnosis (p<0.0001). PMID:25383553

Primary localization and tumor thickness as prognostic factors of survival in patients with mucosal melanoma.

PubMed

Mehra, Tarun; Grözinger, Gerd; Mann, Steven; Guenova, Emmanuella; Moos, Rudolf; Röcken, Martin; Claussen, Claus Detlef; Dummer, Reinhard; Clasen, Stephan; Naumann, Aline; Garbe, Claus

2014-01-01

Data on survival with mucosal melanoma and on prognostic factors of are scarce. It is still unclear if the disease course allows for mucosal melanoma to be treated as primary cutaneous melanoma or if differences in overall survival patterns require adapted therapeutic approaches. Furthermore, this investigation is the first to present 10-year survival rates for mucosal melanomas of different anatomical localizations. 116 cases from Sep 10 1984 until Feb 15 2011 retrieved from the Comprehensive Cancer Center and of the Central Register of the German Dermatologic Society databases in Tübingen were included in our analysis. We recorded anatomical location and tumor thickness, and estimated overall survival at 2, 5 and 10 years and the mean overall survival time. Survival times were analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier method. The log-rank test was used to compare survival times by localizations and by T-stages. We found a median overall survival time of 80.9 months, with an overall 2-year survival of 71.7%, 5-year survival of 55.8% and 10-year survival of 38.3%. The 10-year survival rates for patients with T1, T2, T3 or T4 stage tumors were 100.0%, 77.9%, 66.3% and 10.6% respectively. 10-year survival of patients with melanomas of the vulva was 64.5% in comparison to 22.3% of patients with non-vulva mucosal melanomas. Survival times differed significantly between patients with melanomas of the vulva compared to the rest (p = 0.0006). It also depends on T-stage at the time of diagnosis (p < 0.0001).

Evaluation of clinical, laboratory and morphologic prognostic factors in colon cancer

PubMed Central

Grande, Michele; Milito, Giovanni; Attinà, Grazia Maria; Cadeddu, Federica; Muzi, Marco Gallinella; Nigro, Casimiro; Rulli, Francesco; Farinon, Attilio Maria

2008-01-01

Background The long-term prognosis of patients with colon cancer is dependent on many factors. To investigate the influence of a series of clinical, laboratory and morphological variables on prognosis of colon carcinoma we conducted a retrospective analysis of our data. Methods Ninety-two patients with colon cancer, who underwent surgical resection between January 1999 and December 2001, were analyzed. On survival analysis, demographics, clinical, laboratory and pathomorphological parameters were tested for their potential prognostic value. Furthermore, univariate and multivariate analysis of the above mentioned data were performed considering the depth of tumour invasion into the bowel wall as independent variable. Results On survival analysis we found that depth of tumour invasion (P < 0.001; F-ratio 2.11), type of operation (P < 0.001; F-ratio 3.51) and CT scanning (P < 0.001; F-ratio 5.21) were predictors of survival. Considering the degree of mural invasion as independent variable, on univariate analysis, we observed that mucorrhea, anismus, hematocrit, WBC count, fibrinogen value and CT scanning were significantly related to the degree of mural invasion of the cancer. On the multivariate analysis, fibrinogen value was the most statistically significant variable (P < 0.001) with the highest F-ratio (F-ratio 5.86). Finally, in the present study, the tumour site was significantly related neither to the survival nor to the mural invasion of the tumour. Conclusion The various clinical, laboratory and patho-morphological parameters showed different prognostic value for colon carcinoma. In the future, preoperative prognostic markers will probably gain relevance in order to make a proper choice between surgery, chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Nevertheless, current data do not provide sufficient evidence for preoperative stratification of high and low risk patients. Further assessments in prospective large studies are warranted. PMID:18778464

Comorbidity measurement in patients with laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Castro, Mario A F; Dedivitis, Rogério A; Ribeiro, Karina C B

2007-01-01

The evaluation of a cancer patient can be affected by many factors. Cancer patients often have other diseases or medical conditions in addition to their cancer. These conditions are referred to as comorbidities. They can influence the treatment option, the rate of complications, the outcome, and can confound the survival analysis. It was the aim of this study to measure comorbidities in patients with laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma. Ninety adult patients treated for newly diagnosed laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma were studied. We measured comorbid illness applying the following validated scales: the Cumulative Illness Rating Scale (CIRS), the Kaplan-Feinstein Classification (KFC), the Charlson index, the Index of Coexistent Disease (ICED), the Adult Comorbidity Evaluation-27 (ACE-27), the Alcohol-Tobacco-Related Comorbidities Index (ATC), and the Washington University Head and Neck Comorbidity Index (WUHNCI). Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method (with the log-rank test value being used to compare groups). The Cox proportional hazards model was chosen to identify independent prognostic factors. The mean age was 62.3 years. The majority of patients (36.7%) had early tumors. Forty patients were treated by surgery only, while the remaining 49 patients also received postoperative radiation therapy. Only 5 patients (5.6%) were lost to follow-up. Median follow-up time was 42.5 months. The 4-year overall survival was 63%. There was a statistically significant difference between survival rates according to clinical stage (CS I 87.3%, CS II 48.9%, CS III 74.7%, CS IV 23.9%; p < 0.001). Patients treated by surgery only presented a better survival rate (79.6%) than those receiving postoperative radiation therapy (48.9%; p = 0.001). A statistically significant difference in survival rates was also noted when patients were analyzed according to the type of surgical procedure. In a univariate analysis, comorbidity had impact on prognosis, no matter which scale was utilized: CIRS (p = 0.008), ACE-27 (p = 0.010), ATC (p = 0.004), WUHNCI (p = 0.003), Charlson index (p = 0.020), KFC (p = 0.001), and ICED (p = 0.010). However, in the multivariate analysis, only CIRS and TNM staging were identified as independent prognostic factors. The comorbidity is an independent prognostic factor in patients with surgically treated laryngeal cancer. In the univariate analysis, all indexes were able to stratify patients. However, in the multiple analysis, only the CIRS was predictive of death. Comorbidities are an important factor in the analysis of overall survival. Copyright (c) 2007 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Transients control in Raman fiber amplifiers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freitas, Marcio; Givigi, Sidney N., Jr.; Klein, Jackson; Calmon, Luiz C.; de Almeida, Ailson R.

2004-11-01

Raman fiber amplifiers (RFA) are being used in optical transmission communication systems in the recent years due to their advantages in comparison to erbium-doped fiber amplifiers (EDFA). Recently the analysis of RFAs dynamic response and transients control has become important in order to predict the system response to add/drop of channels or cable cuts in optical systems, and avoid impairments caused by the power transients. Fast signal power transients in the surviving channels are caused by the cross-gain saturation effect in RFA and the slope of the gain saturation characteristics determines the steady-state surviving channel power excursion. We are presenting the modeling and analysis of power transients and its control using a pump control method for a single and multi-pump scheme.

Population dynamics of the California Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis): a meta-analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Franklin, A.B.; Gutierrez, R.J.; Nichols, J.D.; Seamans, M.E.; White, Gary C.; Zimmerman, G.S.; Hines, J.E.; Munton, T.E.; LaHaye, W.S.; Blakesley, J.A.; Steger, G.N.; Noon, B.R.; Shaw, D.W.H.; Keane, J.J.; McDonald, T.L.; Britting, S.

2004-01-01

We conducted a meta-analysis to provide a current assessment of the population characteristics of California Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) resident on four study areas in the Sierra Nevada and one study area in southern California. Our meta-analysis followed rigorous a priori analysis protocols, which we derived through extensive discussion during a week-long analysis workshop. Because there is great interest in the owl?s population status, we used state-of-the-art analytical methods to obtain results as precise as possible. Our meta-analysis included data from five California study areas located on the Lassen National Forest (1990-2000), Eldorado National Forest (1986-2000), Sierra National Forest (1990-2000), Sequoia and Kings Canyon national parks (1990-2000), and San Bernardino National Forest (1987-1998). Four of the five study areas spanned the length of the Sierra Nevada, whereas the fifth study area encompassed the San Bernardino Mountains in southern California. Study areas ranged in size from 343 km2 (Sequoia and Kings Canyon) to 2,200 km (Lassen). All studies were designed to use capture-recapture methods and analysis. We used survival in a meta-analysis because field methods were very similar among studies. However, we did not use reproduction in a meta-analysis because it was not clear if variation among individual study-area protocols used to assess reproductive output of owls would confound results. Thus, we analyzed fecundity only by individual study area. We examined population trend using the reparameterized Jolly-Seber capture-recapture estimator (8t) We did not estimate juvenile survival rates because of estimation problems and potential bias because of juvenile emigration from study areas. We used mark-recapture estimators under an information theoretic framework to assess apparent survival rates of adult owls. The pooled estimate for adult apparent survival for the five study areas was 0.833, which was lower than pooled adult survival rates (0.850) from 15 Northern Spotted Owl (S. o. caurina) studies. Estimates of survival from the best model on the Lassen (N = 0.829, 95% confidence intervals [CI = 0.798 to 0.857), Eldorado (N = 0.815, 95% CI = 0.772 to 0.851), Sierra (N = 0.818, 95% CI = 0.781 to 0.850), and San Bernardino (N = 0.813, 95% CI = 0.782 to 0.841) were not different. However, the Sequoia and Kings Canyon population had a higher survival rate (N = 0.877, 95% CI = 0.842 to 0.905) than the other study areas. Management history and forest structure (e.g. presence of giant sequoia [Sequoiadendron giganteum]) on the Sequoia and Kings Canyon study area differed from all other study areas. There appears to be little or no evidence for temporal variation in adult apparent survival on any of the study areas. Although we did not directly compare fecundity estimates were highly variable among years within all study areas (CV of temporal process variation = 0.672-0.817). Estimates for fecundity among the study populations were Lassen (b = 0.336, SE = 0.083), Eldorado (b = 0.409, SE = 0.087), Sierra (b = 0.284, SE = 0.073), Sequoia and Kings Canyon (b = 0.289, SE = 0.074), and San Bernardino (b = 0.362, SE = 0.038). During most years, the Sierra Nevada populations showed either moderate or poor fecundity. However, 1992 appeared to be an exceptional reproductive year for owls in the Sierra Nevada. In contrast, the San Bernardino population had less variable reproduction (CV of temporal process variation = 0.217), but experienced neither the exceptional reproduction of 1992 nor the extremely poor years that characterized all of the Sierra Nevada study areas. Because fecundity may be influenced by weather patterns, it was possible that the different weather patterns between southern California and the Sierra Nevada accounted for that difference. Except for Eldorado, all estimates for 8t, were <1.0, but none was different from 8 = 1.0 given the 95% confidence i

Recursive Partitioning Analysis for New Classification of Patients With Esophageal Cancer Treated by Chemoradiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nomura, Motoo, E-mail: excell@hkg.odn.ne.jp; Department of Clinical Oncology, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Nagoya; Department of Radiation Oncology, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Nagoya

2012-11-01

Background: The 7th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system does not include lymph node size in the guidelines for staging patients with esophageal cancer. The objectives of this study were to determine the prognostic impact of the maximum metastatic lymph node diameter (ND) on survival and to develop and validate a new staging system for patients with esophageal squamous cell cancer who were treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Methods: Information on 402 patients with esophageal cancer undergoing CRT at two institutions was reviewed. Univariate and multivariate analyses of data from one institution were used to assessmore » the impact of clinical factors on survival, and recursive partitioning analysis was performed to develop the new staging classification. To assess its clinical utility, the new classification was validated using data from the second institution. Results: By multivariate analysis, gender, T, N, and ND stages were independently and significantly associated with survival (p < 0.05). The resulting new staging classification was based on the T and ND. The four new stages led to good separation of survival curves in both the developmental and validation datasets (p < 0.05). Conclusions: Our results showed that lymph node size is a strong independent prognostic factor and that the new staging system, which incorporated lymph node size, provided good prognostic power, and discriminated effectively for patients with esophageal cancer undergoing CRT.« less

Carcinoma of the ampulla of Vater: patterns of failure following resection and benefit of chemoradiotherapy.

PubMed

Palta, Manisha; Patel, Pretesh; Broadwater, Gloria; Willett, Christopher; Pepek, Joseph; Tyler, Douglas; Zafar, S Yousuf; Uronis, Hope; Hurwitz, Herbert; White, Rebekah; Czito, Brian

2012-05-01

Ampullary carcinoma is a rare malignancy. Despite radical resection, survival rates remain low with high rates of local failure. We performed a single-institution outcomes analysis to define the role of concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in addition to surgery. A retrospective analysis was performed of all patients undergoing potentially curative pancreaticoduodenectomy for adenocarcinoma of the ampulla of Vater at Duke University Hospitals between 1976 and 2009. Time-to-event analysis was performed comparing all patients who underwent surgery alone to the cohort of patients receiving CRT in addition to surgery. Local control (LC), disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival (OS), and metastases-free survival (MFS) were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. A total of 137 patients with ampullary carcinoma underwent Whipple procedure. Of these, 61 patients undergoing resection received adjuvant (n = 43) or neoadjuvant (n = 18) CRT. Patients receiving chemoradiotherapy were more likely to have poorly differentiated tumors (P = .03). Of 18 patients receiving neoadjuvant therapy, 67% were downstaged on final pathology with 28% achieving pathologic complete response (pCR). With a median follow-up of 8.8 years, 3-year local control was improved in patients receiving CRT (88% vs 55%, P = .001) with trend toward 3-year DFS (66% vs 48%, P = .09) and OS (62% vs 46%, P = .074) benefit in patients receiving CRT. Long-term survival rates are low and local failure rates high following radical resection alone. Given patterns of relapse with surgery alone and local control benefit in patients receiving CRT, the use of chemoradiotherapy in selected patients should be considered.

Evaluation of the cost effectiveness of vesico-amniotic shunting in the management of congenital lower urinary tract obstruction (based on data from the PLUTO Trial).

PubMed

Diwakar, Lavanya; Morris, Rachel K; Barton, Pelham; Middleton, Lee J; Kilby, Mark D; Roberts, Tracy E

2013-01-01

To determine the cost-effectiveness of in-utero percutaneous Vesico Amniotic Shunt (VAS) in the management of fetal lower urinary tract obstruction (LUTO). Model based economic analysis using data from the randomised controlled arm of the PLUTO (percutaneous vesico-amniotic shunting for lower urinary tract obstruction) trial. Fetal medicine departments in United Kingdom, Ireland and Netherlands. Pregnant women with a male, singleton fetus with LUTO. Costs and outcomes were prospectively collected in the trial; three separate base case analyses were performed using the intention to treat (ITT), per protocol and uniform prior methods. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to explore data uncertainty. Survival at 28 days, 1 year and disease free survival at 1 year. VAS was more expensive but appeared to result in higher rates of survival compared with conservative management in patients with LUTO. Using ITT analysis the incremental cost effectiveness ratios based on outcomes of survival at 28 days, 1 year, or 1 morbidity-free year on the VAS arm were £ 15,506, £ 15,545, and £ 43,932, respectively. VAS is a more expensive option compared to the conservative approach in the management of individuals with LUTO. Data from the RCT suggest that VAS improves neonatal survival but does not result in significant improvements in morbidity. Our analysis concludes that VAS is not likely to be cost effective in the management of these patients given the NICE (National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence) cost threshold of £ 20,000 per QALY.

Surgical Treatment of Recurrent Endometrial Cancer: Time for a Paradigm Shift.

PubMed

Papadia, Andrea; Bellati, Filippo; Ditto, Antonino; Bogani, Giorgio; Gasparri, Maria Luisa; Di Donato, Violante; Martinelli, Fabio; Lorusso, Domenica; Benedetti-Panici, Pierluigi; Raspagliesi, Francesco

2015-12-01

Although surgery represents the cornerstone treatment of endometrial cancer at initial diagnosis, scarce data are available in recurrent setting. The purpose of this study was to review the outcome of surgery in these patients. Medical records of all patients undergoing surgery for recurrent endometrial cancer at NCI Milano between January 2003 and January 2014 were reviewed. Survival was determined from the time of surgery for recurrence to last follow-up. Survival was estimated using Kaplan-Meier methods. Differences in survival were analyzed using the log-rank test. The Fisher's exact test was used to compare optimal versus suboptimal cytoreduction against possible predictive factors. Sixty-four patients were identified. Median age was 66 years. Recurrences were multiple in 38 % of the cases. Optimal cytoreduction was achieved in 65.6 %. Median OR time was 165 min, median postoperative hemoglobin drop was 2.4 g/dl, and median length hospital stay was 5.5 days. Eleven patients developed postoperative complications, but only four required surgical management. Estimated 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) was 42 and 19 % in optimally and suboptimally cytoreduced patients, respectively. At multivariate analysis, only residual disease was associated with PFS. Estimated 5-year overall survival (OS) was 60 and 30 % in optimally and suboptimally cytoreduced patients, respectively. At multivariate analysis, residual disease and histotype were associated with OS. At multivariate analysis, only performance status was associated with optimal cytoreduction. Secondary cytoreduction in endometrial cancer is associated with long PFS and OS. The only factors associated with improved long-term outcome are the absence of residual disease at the end of surgical resection and histotype.

Similar survival of patients with multiple versus single primary melanomas based on Utah Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data (1973-2011).

PubMed

Grossman, Douglas; Farnham, James M; Hyngstrom, John; Klapperich, Marki E; Secrest, Aaron M; Empey, Sarah; Bowen, Glen M; Wada, David; Andtbacka, Robert H I; Grossmann, Kenneth; Bowles, Tawnya L; Cannon-Albright, Lisa A

2018-03-01

Survival data are mixed comparing patients with multiple primary melanomas (MPM) to those with single primary melanomas (SPM). We compared MPM versus SPM patient survival using a matching method that avoids potential biases associated with other analytic approaches. Records of 14,138 individuals obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry of all melanomas diagnosed or treated in Utah between 1973 and 2011 were reviewed. A single matched control patient was selected randomly from the SPM cohort for each MPM patient, with the restriction that they survived at least as long as the interval between the first and second diagnoses for the matched MPM patient. Survival curves (n = 887 for both MPM and SPM groups) without covariates showed a significant survival disadvantage for MPM patients (chi-squared 39.29, P < .001). However, a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model showed no significant survival difference (hazard ratio 1.07, P = .55). Restricting the multivariate analysis to invasive melanomas also showed no significant survival difference (hazard ratio 0.99, P = .96). Breslow depth, ulceration status, and specific cause of death were not available for all patients. Patients with MPM had similar survival times as patients with SPM. Copyright © 2018 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mining gene link information for survival pathway hunting.

PubMed

Jing, Gao-Jian; Zhang, Zirui; Wang, Hong-Qiang; Zheng, Hong-Mei

2015-08-01

This study proposes a gene link-based method for survival time-related pathway hunting. In this method, the authors incorporate gene link information to estimate how a pathway is associated with cancer patient's survival time. Specifically, a gene link-based Cox proportional hazard model (Link-Cox) is established, in which two linked genes are considered together to represent a link variable and the association of the link with survival time is assessed using Cox proportional hazard model. On the basis of the Link-Cox model, the authors formulate a new statistic for measuring the association of a pathway with survival time of cancer patients, referred to as pathway survival score (PSS), by summarising survival significance over all the gene links in the pathway, and devise a permutation test to test the significance of an observed PSS. To evaluate the proposed method, the authors applied it to simulation data and two publicly available real-world gene expression data sets. Extensive comparisons with previous methods show the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method for survival pathway hunting.

A Review of the Study Designs and Statistical Methods Used in the Determination of Predictors of All-Cause Mortality in HIV-Infected Cohorts: 2002–2011

PubMed Central

Otwombe, Kennedy N.; Petzold, Max; Martinson, Neil; Chirwa, Tobias

2014-01-01

Background Research in the predictors of all-cause mortality in HIV-infected people has widely been reported in literature. Making an informed decision requires understanding the methods used. Objectives We present a review on study designs, statistical methods and their appropriateness in original articles reporting on predictors of all-cause mortality in HIV-infected people between January 2002 and December 2011. Statistical methods were compared between 2002–2006 and 2007–2011. Time-to-event analysis techniques were considered appropriate. Data Sources Pubmed/Medline. Study Eligibility Criteria Original English-language articles were abstracted. Letters to the editor, editorials, reviews, systematic reviews, meta-analysis, case reports and any other ineligible articles were excluded. Results A total of 189 studies were identified (n = 91 in 2002–2006 and n = 98 in 2007–2011) out of which 130 (69%) were prospective and 56 (30%) were retrospective. One hundred and eighty-two (96%) studies described their sample using descriptive statistics while 32 (17%) made comparisons using t-tests. Kaplan-Meier methods for time-to-event analysis were commonly used in the earlier period (n = 69, 76% vs. n = 53, 54%, p = 0.002). Predictors of mortality in the two periods were commonly determined using Cox regression analysis (n = 67, 75% vs. n = 63, 64%, p = 0.12). Only 7 (4%) used advanced survival analysis methods of Cox regression analysis with frailty in which 6 (3%) were used in the later period. Thirty-two (17%) used logistic regression while 8 (4%) used other methods. There were significantly more articles from the first period using appropriate methods compared to the second (n = 80, 88% vs. n = 69, 70%, p-value = 0.003). Conclusion Descriptive statistics and survival analysis techniques remain the most common methods of analysis in publications on predictors of all-cause mortality in HIV-infected cohorts while prospective research designs are favoured. Sophisticated techniques of time-dependent Cox regression and Cox regression with frailty are scarce. This motivates for more training in the use of advanced time-to-event methods. PMID:24498313

Can auger planting improve survival of Douglas-fir seedlings? Res

Treesearch

Richard E. Miller

1969-01-01

Survival and apparent vigor of Douglas-fir seedlings were compared after: (1) hoe planting of root-trimmed seedlings; (2) as above plus manual site preparation; (3) auger planting of untrimmed seedlings. After two growing seasons, surviving with method (3) but not (2) was significantly greater than survival with method (1). After the third season, survival...

Meta-analysis of the independent and cumulative effects of multiple genetic modifications on pig lung xenograft performance during ex vivo perfusion with human blood

PubMed Central

Harris, Donald G.; Quinn, Kevin J.; French, Beth M.; Schwartz, Evan; Kang, Elizabeth; Dahi, Siamak; Phelps, Carol J.; Ayares, David L.; Burdorf, Lars; Azimzadeh, Agnes M.; Pierson, Richard N.

2014-01-01

Background Genetically modified pigs are a promising potential source of lung xenografts. Ex-vivo xenoperfusion is an effective platform for testing the effect of new modifications, but typical experiments are limited by testing of a single genetic intervention and small sample sizes. The purpose of this study was to analyze the individual and aggregate effects of donor genetic modifications on porcine lung xenograft survival and injury in an extensive pig lung xenoperfusion series. Methods Data from 157 porcine lung xenoperfusion experiments using otherwise unmodified heparinized human blood were aggregated as either continuous or dichotomous variables. Lungs were wild type in 17 perfusions (11% of the study group), while 31 lungs (20% of the study group) had 1 genetic modification, 40 lungs (39%) had 2, and 47 lungs (30%) had 3 or more modifications. The primary endpoint was functional lung survival to 4 hours of perfusion. Secondary analyses evaluated previously identified markers associated with known lung xenograft injury mechanisms. In addition to comparison among all xenografts grouped by survival status, a subgroup analysis was performed of lungs incorporating the GalTKO.hCD46 genotype. Results Each increase in the number of genetic modifications was associated with additional prolongation of lung xenograft survival. Lungs that exhibited survival to 4 hours generally had reduced platelet activation and thrombin generation. GalTKO and the expression of hCD46, HO-1, hCD55 or hEPCR were associated with improved survival. hTBM, HLA-E, and hCD39 were associated with no significant effect on the primary outcome. Conclusion This meta-analysis of an extensive lung xenotransplantation series demonstrates that increasing the number of genetic modifications targeting known xenogeneic lung injury mechanisms is associated with incremental improvements in lung survival. While more detailed mechanistic studies are needed to explore the relationship between gene expression and pathway-specific injury, and explore why some genes apparently exhibit neutral (hTBM, HLA-E) or inconclusive (CD39) effects, GalTKO, hCD46, HO-1, hCD55, and hEPCR modifications were associated with significant lung xenograft protection. This analysis supports the hypothesis that multiple genetic modifications targeting different known mechanisms of xenograft injury will be required to optimize lung xenograft survival. PMID:25470239

[Comparative analysis of TACE alone or plus RFA in the treatment of 167 cases of intermediate and advanced staged primary hepatocellular carcinoma].

PubMed

Zhao, Ming; Wang, Jian-peng; Wu, Pei-hong; Zhang, Fu-jun; Huang, Zi-lin; Li, Wang; Zhang, Liang; Pan, Chang-chuan; Li, Chuan-xing; Jiang, Yong

2010-11-09

To evaluate the clinical efficacy and survival rate of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) alone or plus radiofrequency ablation (RFA) in patients with intermediate or advanced stage primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this retrospective study, 467 cases received RFA or TACE plus RFA. Among them, 167 cases with strict clinical procedure (TACE alone or plus RFA) and complete follow-up data were included. Eighty-seven cases received TACE and 80 cases had TACE plus RFA between January 2000 and December 2006. Hierarchical analyses were performed using log-rank tests and survival curve was estimated by Kaplan-Meier method. A total of 167 patients received TACE alone or plus RFA for a follow-up period of 1 to 89 months. In the TACE alone group, the time-to-progression (TTP) was an average of 3.6 months. The median survival was 13 months, one-year survival rate 52.9%, three-year survival rate 11.5% and five-year survival rate 4.6%. In the TACE plus RFA group, the TTP time was an average of 10.8 months. The median survival time was 30 months, one-year survival rate 85.0%, three-year survival rate 45.0% and five-year survival rate 11.3%. In the TACE alone group, the median survival of intermediate stage HCC was 14 months, one-year survival rate 62.2%, three-year survival rate 13.3% and five-year survival rate 4.4%; In the TACE plus RFA group, the median survival of intermediate stage HCC was 14 months, one-year survival rate 90.1%, three-year survival rate 52.9% and five-year survival rate 13.7%. All differences of two groups has statistical significance (P < 0.05). In intermediate stage HCC, the median survival of TACE alone group was 14 months, one-year survival rate 62.2%, three-year survival rate 13.3%, five-year survival rate 4.4% versus 32 months, 90.1%, 52.9%, 13.7% in the TACE plus RFA group respectively. For the advanced stage HCC, the median survival time was 12 months, one-year survival rate 35%, three-year survival rate 7.1% and five-year survival rate 0 in the TACE alone group versus 28 months, 62.1%, 24.1% and 6.9% in the TACE plus RFA group (P = 0.00). There was significantly statistic difference between both groups in intermediate and advanced staging HCC. Among them, 60/485 (12.4%) patients required a therapy of post-TACE hepatic dysfunctions versus 13/168 (7.7%) in the TACE plus RFA group (P = 0.004, ANOVA method). The regimen of TACE plus RFA has the advantages of tumor control, liver function protection and survival extending in the treatment of HCC than TACE alone in intermediate or advanced stage HCC.

Droplet Microarray Based on Superhydrophobic-Superhydrophilic Patterns for Single Cell Analysis.

PubMed

Jogia, Gabriella E; Tronser, Tina; Popova, Anna A; Levkin, Pavel A

2016-12-09

Single-cell analysis provides fundamental information on individual cell response to different environmental cues and is a growing interest in cancer and stem cell research. However, current existing methods are still facing challenges in performing such analysis in a high-throughput manner whilst being cost-effective. Here we established the Droplet Microarray (DMA) as a miniaturized screening platform for high-throughput single-cell analysis. Using the method of limited dilution and varying cell density and seeding time, we optimized the distribution of single cells on the DMA. We established culturing conditions for single cells in individual droplets on DMA obtaining the survival of nearly 100% of single cells and doubling time of single cells comparable with that of cells cultured in bulk cell population using conventional methods. Our results demonstrate that the DMA is a suitable platform for single-cell analysis, which carries a number of advantages compared with existing technologies allowing for treatment, staining and spot-to-spot analysis of single cells over time using conventional analysis methods such as microscopy.

A Review and Comparison of Methods for Recreating Individual Patient Data from Published Kaplan-Meier Survival Curves for Economic Evaluations: A Simulation Study

PubMed Central

Wan, Xiaomin; Peng, Liubao; Li, Yuanjian

2015-01-01

Background In general, the individual patient-level data (IPD) collected in clinical trials are not available to independent researchers to conduct economic evaluations; researchers only have access to published survival curves and summary statistics. Thus, methods that use published survival curves and summary statistics to reproduce statistics for economic evaluations are essential. Four methods have been identified: two traditional methods 1) least squares method, 2) graphical method; and two recently proposed methods by 3) Hoyle and Henley, 4) Guyot et al. The four methods were first individually reviewed and subsequently assessed regarding their abilities to estimate mean survival through a simulation study. Methods A number of different scenarios were developed that comprised combinations of various sample sizes, censoring rates and parametric survival distributions. One thousand simulated survival datasets were generated for each scenario, and all methods were applied to actual IPD. The uncertainty in the estimate of mean survival time was also captured. Results All methods provided accurate estimates of the mean survival time when the sample size was 500 and a Weibull distribution was used. When the sample size was 100 and the Weibull distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method; however, more biases were identified in the traditional methods. When a lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method generated noticeably less bias and a more accurate uncertainty compared with the Hoyle and Henley method. Conclusions The traditional methods should not be preferred because of their remarkable overestimation. When the Weibull distribution was used for a fitted model, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method. However, if the lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was less biased compared with the Hoyle and Henley method. PMID:25803659

Outcome for Patients with Triple-Negative Breast Cancer Is Not Dependent on Race/Ethnicity

PubMed Central

Chu, Quyen D.; Henderson, Amanda E.; Ampil, Fred; Li, Benjamin D. L.

2012-01-01

Introduction. Triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) is biologically aggressive and is associated with a worse prognosis. To understand the impact of race/ethnicity on outcome for patients with TNBC, confounding factors such as socioeconomic status (SES) need to be controlled. We examined the impact of race/ethnicity on a cohort of patients of low SES who have TNBC. Methods. 786 patients with Stage 0–III breast cancer were evaluated. Of these, 202 patients had TNBC (26%). Primary endpoints were cancer recurrence and death. ZIP code-based income tract and institutional financial data were used to assess SES. Data were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, log-rank tests, Cox Proportional hazard regression, chi square test, and t-tests. A P value ≤0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results. Of the 468 African-Americans (60%) in the database, 138 had TNBC; 64 of 318 Caucasians had TNBC. 80% of patients had an annual income of ≤$20,000. The 5-year overall survival was 77% for African-American women versus 72% for Caucasian women (P = 0.95). On multivariate analysis, race/ethnicity had an impact on disease-free survival (P = 0.027) but not on overall survival (P = 0.98). Conclusion. In a predominantly indigent population, race/ethnicity had no impact on overall survival for patients with triple negative breast cancer. PMID:22645687

Prediction of decannulation, oral intake recovery, overall survival and lung metastasis following oral malignant tumor resection and reconstruction

PubMed Central

Suzuki, Hidenori; Hyodo, Ikuo; Hasegawa, Yasuhisa

2018-01-01

The present study investigated whether tongue base and mandibular bone defects were associated with the rate of decannulation and oral intake recovery, and survival time, including overall and lung metastasis-free survival time, in patients that underwent oral malignant tumor (OMT) resection with reconstruction. A total of 105 patients that underwent OMT resection with laryngeal preservation and reconstruction were recruited. The extent of defects was classified according to Urken's classification. The rates of decannulation and oral intake recovery were assessed with the Kaplan-Meier method. It was identified that 4–5 section segmental mandibulectomy (SM) and total glossectomy (TG) were significantly associated with a lower rate of decannulation and oral intake recovery by univariate and multivariate analysis using a Cox's proportional model. Patients in the high risk group (4–5 sections or TG) were significantly less likely to achieve decannulation and unaided oral intake. Patients in the high risk group exhibited a significantly shorter overall and lung metastasis-free survival time. Following multivariate analysis adjusted for the clinical stage (IV/I–III), past history of or postoperative radiotherapy (yes/no) and age (per year), the high risk group was associated with a significantly rate of decannulation and unaided oral intake. In conclusion, TG or wide SM is a prognostic parameter for functional and survival outcomes, including lung metastasis, in OMT. PMID:29434993

ROCK I Has More Accurate Prognostic Value than MET in Predicting Patient Survival in Colorectal Cancer.

PubMed

Li, Jian; Bharadwaj, Shruthi S; Guzman, Grace; Vishnubhotla, Ramana; Glover, Sarah C

2015-06-01

Colorectal cancer remains the second leading cause of death in the United States despite improvements in incidence rates and advancements in screening. The present study evaluated the prognostic value of two tumor markers, MET and ROCK I, which have been noted in other cancers to provide more accurate prognoses of patient outcomes than tumor staging alone. We constructed a tissue microarray from surgical specimens of adenocarcinomas from 108 colorectal cancer patients. Using immunohistochemistry, we examined the expression levels of tumor markers MET and ROCK I, with a pathologist blinded to patient identities and clinical outcomes providing the scoring of MET and ROCK I expression. We then used retrospective analysis of patients' survival data to provide correlations with expression levels of MET and ROCK I. Both MET and ROCK I were significantly over-expressed in colorectal cancer tissues, relative to the unaffected adjacent mucosa. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that patients' 5-year survival was inversely correlated with levels of expression of ROCK I. In contrast, MET was less strongly correlated with five-year survival. ROCK I provides better efficacy in predicting patient outcomes, compared to either tumor staging or MET expression. As a result, ROCK I may provide a less invasive method of assessing patient prognoses and directing therapeutic interventions. Copyright© 2015 International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. John G. Delinassios), All rights reserved.

Radiotherapy in pediatric medulloblastoma: Quality assessment of Pediatric Oncology Group Trial 9031

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miralbell, Raymond; Fitzgerald, T.J.; Laurie, Fran

2006-04-01

Purpose: To evaluate the potential influence of radiotherapy quality on survival in high-risk pediatric medulloblastoma patients. Methods and Materials: Trial 9031 of the Pediatric Oncology Group (POG) aimed to study the relative benefit of cisplatin and etoposide randomization of high-risk patients with medulloblastoma to preradiotherapy vs. postradiotherapy treatment. Two-hundred and ten patients were treated according to protocol guidelines and were eligible for the present analysis. Treatment volume (whole brain, spine, posterior fossa, and primary tumor bed) and dose prescription deviations were assessed for each patient. An analysis of first site of failure was undertaken. Event-free and overall survival rates weremore » calculated. A log-rank test was used to determine the significance of potential survival differences between patients with and without major deviations in the radiotherapy procedure. Results: Of 160 patients who were fully evaluable for all treatment quality parameters, 91 (57%) had 1 or more major deviations in their treatment schedule. Major deviations by treatment site were brain (26%), spinal (7%), posterior fossa (40%), and primary tumor bed (17%). Major treatment volume or total dose deviations did not significantly influence overall and event-free survival. Conclusions: Despite major treatment deviations in more than half of fully evaluable patients, underdosage or treatment volume misses were not associated with a worse event-free or overall survival.« less

TGFBI expression is an independent predictor of survival in adjuvant-treated lung squamous cell carcinoma patients

PubMed Central

Pajares, M J; Agorreta, J; Salvo, E; Behrens, C; Wistuba, I I; Montuenga, L M; Pio, R; Rouzaut, A

2014-01-01

Background: Transforming growth factor β-induced protein (TGFBI) is a secreted protein that mediates cell anchoring to the extracellular matrix. This protein is downregulated in lung cancer, and when overexpressed, contributes to apoptotic cell death. Using a small series of stage IV non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients, we previously suggested the usefulness of TGFBI as a prognostic and predictive factor in chemotherapy-treated late-stage NSCLC. In order to validate and extend these results, we broaden the analysis and studied TGFBI expression in a large series of samples obtained from stage I–IV NSCLC patients. Methods: TGFBI expression was assessed by immunohistochemistry in 364 completely resected primary NSCLC samples: 242 adenocarcinomas (ADCs) and 122 squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs). Kaplan–Meier curves, log-rank tests and the Cox proportional hazards model were used to analyse the association between TGFBI expression and survival. Results: High TGFBI levels were associated with longer overall survival (OS, P<0.001) and progression-free survival (PFS, P<0.001) in SCC patients who received adjuvant platinium-based chemotherapy. Moreover, multivariate analysis demonstrated that high TGFBI expression is an independent predictor of better survival in patients (OS: P=0.030 and PFS: P=0.026). Conclusions: TGFBI may be useful for the identification of a subset of NSCLC who may benefit from adjuvant therapy. PMID:24481402

Accounting for competing risks in randomized controlled trials: a review and recommendations for improvement.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C; Fine, Jason P

2017-04-15

In studies with survival or time-to-event outcomes, a competing risk is an event whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the primary event of interest. Specialized statistical methods must be used to analyze survival data in the presence of competing risks. We conducted a review of randomized controlled trials with survival outcomes that were published in high-impact general medical journals. Of 40 studies that we identified, 31 (77.5%) were potentially susceptible to competing risks. However, in the majority of these studies, the potential presence of competing risks was not accounted for in the statistical analyses that were described. Of the 31 studies potentially susceptible to competing risks, 24 (77.4%) reported the results of a Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, while only five (16.1%) reported using cumulative incidence functions to estimate the incidence of the outcome over time in the presence of competing risks. The former approach will tend to result in an overestimate of the incidence of the outcome over time, while the latter approach will result in unbiased estimation of the incidence of the primary outcome over time. We provide recommendations on the analysis and reporting of randomized controlled trials with survival outcomes in the presence of competing risks. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Accounting for competing risks in randomized controlled trials: a review and recommendations for improvement

PubMed Central

Fine, Jason P.

2017-01-01

In studies with survival or time‐to‐event outcomes, a competing risk is an event whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the primary event of interest. Specialized statistical methods must be used to analyze survival data in the presence of competing risks. We conducted a review of randomized controlled trials with survival outcomes that were published in high‐impact general medical journals. Of 40 studies that we identified, 31 (77.5%) were potentially susceptible to competing risks. However, in the majority of these studies, the potential presence of competing risks was not accounted for in the statistical analyses that were described. Of the 31 studies potentially susceptible to competing risks, 24 (77.4%) reported the results of a Kaplan–Meier survival analysis, while only five (16.1%) reported using cumulative incidence functions to estimate the incidence of the outcome over time in the presence of competing risks. The former approach will tend to result in an overestimate of the incidence of the outcome over time, while the latter approach will result in unbiased estimation of the incidence of the primary outcome over time. We provide recommendations on the analysis and reporting of randomized controlled trials with survival outcomes in the presence of competing risks. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:28102550

A retrospective study on related factors affecting the survival rate of dental implants

PubMed Central

Kang, Jeong-Kyung; Lee, Ki; Lee, Yong-Sang; Park, Pil-Kyoo

2011-01-01

PURPOSE The aim of this retrospective study is to analyze the relationship between local factors and survival rate of dental implant which had been installed and restored in Seoul Veterans Hospital dental center for past 10 years. And when the relationship is found out, it could be helpful to predict the prognosis of dental implants. MATERIALS AND METHODS A retrospective study of patients receiving root-shaped screw-type dental implants placed from January 2000 to December 2009 was conducted. 6385 implants were placed in 3755 patients. The following data were collected from the dental records and radiographs: patient's age, gender, implant type and surface, length, diameter, location of implant placement, bone quality, prosthesis type. The correlations between these data and survival rate were analyzed. Statistical analysis was performed with the use of Kaplan-Meier analysis, Chi-square test and odds ratio. RESULTS In all, 6385 implants were placed in 3755 patients (3120 male, 635 female; mean age 65 ± 10.58 years). 108 implants failed and the cumulative survival rate was 96.33%. There were significant differences in age, implant type and surface, length, location and prosthesis type (P<.05). No significant differences were found in relation to the following factors: gender, diameter and bone quality (P>.05). CONCLUSION Related factors such as age, implant type, length, location and prosthesis type had a significant effect on the implant survival. PMID:22259704

Single vs bilateral, sequential lung transplantation for end-stage emphysema: influence of recipient age on survival and secondary end-points.

PubMed

Meyer, D M; Bennett, L E; Novick, R J; Hosenpud, J D

2001-09-01

The appropriate age to perform bilateral, sequential lung transplants (BSLT) in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains controversial. Although single lung transplant (SLT) offers an advantage in terms of organ availability, the long-term survival may not warrant this strategy in all age groups. We analyzed 2,260 lung transplant recipients (1835 SLT, 425 BSLT) with COPD recorded in the International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation/United Network for Organ Sharing thoracic registry between January 1991 and December 1997. To assess mortality, we performed univariate (Kaplan-Meier method and the chi-square statistic) and multivariate analyses (proportional hazards method). Because of incomplete morbidity data in the international registry, only data from U.S. centers (n = 1778, 1467 SLT, 311 BSLT) were used in the morbidity analysis. Survival rates (%) computed using the Kaplan-Meier method at 30 days, 1 year, and 5 years for the patients aged < 50 years were 93.6, 80.2, and 43.6, respectively, for the SLT patients, and 94.9, 84.7, and 68.2, respectively, for the BSLT patients. For patients aged 50 to 60 years, survival rates (%) were 93.5, 79.4, and 39.8 for the SLT patients compared with 93.0, 79.7, and 60.5 for the BSLT patients. For those aged > 60 years, SLT survival (%) was 93.0, 72.9, and 36.4, compared with 77.8 and 66.0 for the BSLT group (a 5-year rate could not be completed in this group). The multivariate model showed a higher risk ratio for mortality in patients aged 40 to 57 years who received SLT vs BSLT. Recipient age and procedure type did not appear to affect the development of rejection, bronchiolitis obliterans, bronchial stricture, or lung infection. Single lung transplant may offer acceptable early survival for patients with end-stage respiratory failure. However, long-term survival data favors BSLT in recipients until approximately age 60 years. These data suggest that a BSLT approach offers a significant survival advantage to recipients younger than 60 years of age.

Sources of variation in survival of breeding female wood ducks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartke, Kevin M.; Grand, J.B.; Hepp, G.R.; Folk, T.H.

2006-01-01

In waterfowl, reproduction is physiologically demanding and females are exposed to varying risks of mortality at different periods of the breeding cycle. Moreover, differences among females may influence survival within breeding periods. We captured and fitted female Wood Ducks (Aix sponsa) with radio-transmitters before nest initiation during two breeding seasons to estimate survival and investigate sources of variation in survival. We partitioned the breeding season into three periods (preincubation, incubation, postnesting) according to breeding status of individual females, and used information-theoretic methods to compare models in which daily survival varied among periods, between successful and failed nesting females, and with parameters describing individual heterogeneity. Our analysis suggested that daily survival was best modeled as a function of breeding period, differences between successful and failed nesting females during postnesting, and early incubation body condition of successful females during post-nesting. Model-averaged daily survival was 0.9988 (95% CL: 0.9963-0.9996) during preincubation and 1.0 during incubation. Postnesting daily survival was 1.0 for failed nesting females and 0.9948 (0.9773-0.9988) for successful females, suggesting a trade-off between current reproduction and survival. Female age, body condition at capture, nest initiation date, and brood size generally were not useful for explaining variation in survival. Only early incubation body condition was important for modeling survival of successful females during postnesting; however, weight of evidence was limited and the effect on survival was weak. Mortality was greatest for females during preincubation and for females that nested successfully. Results support the hypothesis that brood care is costly for females. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.

Chemokine-like factor-like MARVEL transmembrane domain-containing 3 expression is associated with a favorable prognosis in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Han, Tianci; Shu, Tianci; Dong, Siyuan; Li, Peiwen; Li, Weinan; Liu, Dali; Qi, Ruiqun; Zhang, Shuguang; Zhang, Lin

2017-05-01

Decreased expression of human chemokine-like factor-like MARVEL transmembrane domain-containing 3 (CMTM3) has been identified in a number of human tumors and tumor cell lines, including gastric and testicular cancer, and PC3, CAL27 and Tca-83 cell lines. However, the association between CMTM3 expression and the clinicopathological features and prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients remains unclear. The aim of the present study was to investigate the correlation between CMTM3 expression and clinicopathological parameters and prognosis in ESCC. CMTM3 mRNA and protein expression was analyzed in ESCC and paired non-tumor tissues by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction, western blotting and immunohistochemical analysis. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to plot survival curves and the Cox proportional hazards regression model was also used for univariate and multivariate survival analysis. The results revealed that CMTM3 mRNA and protein expression levels were lower in 82.5% (30/40) and 75% (30/40) of ESCC tissues, respectively, when compared with matched non-tumor tissues. Statistical analysis demonstrated that CMTM3 expression was significantly correlated with lymph node metastasis (P=0.002) and clinical stage (P<0.001) in ESCC tissues. Furthermore, the survival time of ESCC patients exhibiting low CMTM3 expression was significantly shorter than that of ESCC patients exhibiting high CMTM3 expression (P=0.01). In addition, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that the overall survival time of patients exhibiting low CMTM3 expression was significantly decreased compared with patients exhibiting high CMTM3 expression (P=0.010). Cox multivariate analysis indicated that CMTM3 protein expression was an independent prognostic predictor for ESCC after resection. This study indicated that CMTM3 expression is significantly decreased in ESCC tissues and CMTM3 protein expression in resected tumors may present an effective prognostic biomarker.

A review and comparison of methods for recreating individual patient data from published Kaplan-Meier survival curves for economic evaluations: a simulation study.

PubMed

Wan, Xiaomin; Peng, Liubao; Li, Yuanjian

2015-01-01

In general, the individual patient-level data (IPD) collected in clinical trials are not available to independent researchers to conduct economic evaluations; researchers only have access to published survival curves and summary statistics. Thus, methods that use published survival curves and summary statistics to reproduce statistics for economic evaluations are essential. Four methods have been identified: two traditional methods 1) least squares method, 2) graphical method; and two recently proposed methods by 3) Hoyle and Henley, 4) Guyot et al. The four methods were first individually reviewed and subsequently assessed regarding their abilities to estimate mean survival through a simulation study. A number of different scenarios were developed that comprised combinations of various sample sizes, censoring rates and parametric survival distributions. One thousand simulated survival datasets were generated for each scenario, and all methods were applied to actual IPD. The uncertainty in the estimate of mean survival time was also captured. All methods provided accurate estimates of the mean survival time when the sample size was 500 and a Weibull distribution was used. When the sample size was 100 and the Weibull distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method; however, more biases were identified in the traditional methods. When a lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method generated noticeably less bias and a more accurate uncertainty compared with the Hoyle and Henley method. The traditional methods should not be preferred because of their remarkable overestimation. When the Weibull distribution was used for a fitted model, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method. However, if the lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was less biased compared with the Hoyle and Henley method.

Pretreatment Evaluation of Microcirculation by Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging Predicts Survival in Primary Rectal Cancer Patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeVries, Alexander Friedrich; Piringer, Gudrun, E-mail: gudrun.piringer@hotmail.com; Kremser, Christian

2014-12-01

Purpose: To investigate the prognostic value of the perfusion index (PI), a microcirculatory parameter estimated from dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI), which integrates information on both flow and permeability, to predict overall survival and disease-free survival in patients with primary rectal cancer. Methods and Materials: A total of 83 patients with stage cT3 rectal cancer requiring neoadjuvant chemoradiation were investigated with DCE-MRI before start of therapy. Contrast-enhanced dynamic T{sub 1} mapping was obtained, and a simple data analysis strategy based on the calculation of the maximum slope of the tissue concentration–time curve divided by the maximum of the arterial inputmore » function was used as a measure of tumor microcirculation (PI), which integrates information on both flow and permeability. Results: In 39 patients (47.0%), T downstaging (ypT0-2) was observed. During a mean (±SD) follow-up period of 71 ± 29 months, 58 patients (69.9%) survived, and disease-free survival was achieved in 45 patients (54.2%). The mean PI (PImean) averaged over the group of nonresponders was significantly higher than for responders. Additionally, higher PImean in age- and gender-adjusted analyses was strongly predictive of therapy nonresponse. Most importantly, PImean strongly and significantly predicted disease-free survival (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.85 [ 95% confidence interval, 1.35-2.54; P<.001)]; HR adjusted for age and sex, 1.81 [1.30-2.51]; P<.001) as well as overall survival (unadjusted HR 1.42 [1.02-1.99], P=.040; HR adjusted for age and sex, 1.43 [1.03-1.98]; P=.034). Conclusions: This analysis identifies PImean as a novel biomarker that is predictive for therapy response, disease-free survival, and overall survival in patients with primary locally advanced rectal cancer.« less

The Impact of Local and Regional Disease Extent on Overall Survival in Patients With Advanced Stage IIIB/IV Non-Small Cell Lung Carcinoma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Higginson, Daniel S., E-mail: daniel.higginson@gmail.com; Chen, Ronald C.; Tracton, Gregg

2012-11-01

Purpose: Patients with advanced stage IIIB or stage IV non-small cell lung carcinoma are typically treated with initial platinum-based chemotherapy. A variety of factors (eg, performance status, gender, age, histology, weight loss, and smoking history) are generally accepted as predictors of overall survival. Because uncontrolled pulmonary disease constitutes a major cause of death in these patients, we hypothesized that clinical and radiographic factors related to intrathoracic disease at diagnosis may be prognostically significant in addition to conventional factors. The results have implications regarding the selection of patients for whom palliative thoracic radiation therapy may be of most benefit. Methods andmore » Materials: We conducted a pooled analysis of 189 patients enrolled at a single institution into 9 prospective phase II and III clinical trials involving first-line, platinum-based chemotherapy. Baseline clinical and radiographic characteristics before trial enrollment were analyzed as possible predictors for subsequent overall survival. To assess the relationship between anatomic location and volume of disease within the thorax and its effect on survival, the pre-enrollment computed tomography images were also analyzed by contouring central and peripheral intrapulmonary disease. Results: On univariate survival analysis, multiple pulmonary-related factors were significantly associated with worse overall survival, including pulmonary symptoms at presentation (P=.0046), total volume of intrathoracic disease (P=.0006), and evidence of obstruction of major bronchi or vessels on prechemotherapy computed tomography (P<.0001). When partitioned into central and peripheral volumes, central (P<.0001) but not peripheral (P=.74) disease was associated with worse survival. On multivariate analysis with known factors, pulmonary symptoms (hazard ratio, 1.46; P=.042), central disease volume (hazard ratio, 1.47; P=.042), and bronchial/vascular compression (hazard ratio, 1.54; P=.022) remained significant. Conclusions: Patients with bulky central disease, bronchial/vascular compression, and/or pulmonary symptoms exhibited worse overall survival after first-line, platinum-based chemotherapy. A subset of these patients may be studied to determine whether early, planned palliative thoracic radiation could also be of benefit.« less

Seven-Month Prostate-Specific Antigen Is Prognostic in Metastatic Hormone-Sensitive Prostate Cancer Treated With Androgen Deprivation With or Without Docetaxel

PubMed Central

Harshman, Lauren C.; Chen, Yu-Hui; Liu, Glenn; Carducci, Michael A.; Jarrard, David; Dreicer, Robert; Hahn, Noah; Garcia, Jorge A.; Hussain, Maha; Shevrin, Daniel; Eisenberger, Mario; Kohli, Manish; Plimack, Elizabeth R.; Cooney, Matthew; Vogelzang, Nicholas J.; Picus, Joel; Dipaola, Robert

2018-01-01

Purpose We evaluated the relationship between prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and overall survival in the context of a prospectively randomized clinical trial comparing androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) plus docetaxel with ADT alone for initial metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer. Methods We performed a landmark survival analysis at 7 months using the E3805 Chemohormonal Therapy Versus Androgen Ablation Randomized Trial for Extensive Disease in Prostate Cancer (CHAARTED) database (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00309985). Inclusion required at least 7 months of follow-up and PSA levels at 7 months from ADT initiation. We used the prognostic classifiers identified in a previously reported trial (Southwest Oncology Group 9346) of PSA ≤ 0.2, > 0.2 to 4, and > 4 ng/mL. Results Seven hundred nineteen of 790 patients were eligible for this subanalysis; 358 were treated with ADT plus docetaxel, and 361 were treated with ADT alone. Median follow-up time was 23.1 months. On multivariable analysis, achieving a 7-month PSA ≤ 0.2 ng/mL was more likely with docetaxel, low-volume disease, prior local therapy, and lower baseline PSAs (all P ≤ .01). Across all patients, median overall survival was significantly longer if 7-month PSA reached ≤ 0.2 ng/mL compared with > 4 ng/mL (median survival, 60.4 v 22.2 months, respectively; P < .001). On multivariable analysis, 7-month PSA ≤ 0.2 and low volume disease were prognostic of longer overall survival (all P < 0.01). The addition of docetaxel increased the likelihood of achieving a PSA ≤ 0.2 ng/mL at 7 months (45.3% v 28.8% of patients on ADT alone). Patients on ADT alone who achieved a 7-month PSA ≤ 0.2 ng/mL had the best survival and were more likely to have low-volume disease (56.7%). Conclusion PSA ≤ 0.2 ng/mL at 7 months is prognostic for longer overall survival with ADT for metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer irrespective of docetaxel administration. Adding docetaxel increased the likelihood of a lower PSA and improved survival. PMID:29261442

Differential Impact of Whole-Brain Radiotherapy Added to Radiosurgery for Brain Metastases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kong, Doo-Sik; Lee, Jung-Il, E-mail: jilee@skku.ed; Im, Yong-Seok

2010-10-01

Purpose: The authors investigated whether the addition of whole-brain radiotherapy (WBRT) to stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) provided any therapeutic benefit according to recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) class. Methods and Materials: Two hundred forty-five patients with 1 to 10 metastases who underwent SRS between January 2002 and December 2007 were included in the study. Of those, 168 patients were treated with SRS alone and 77 patients received SRS followed by WBRT. Actuarial curves were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method regarding overall survival (OS), distant brain control (DC), and local brain control (LC) stratified by RPA class. Analyses for known prognostic variables weremore » performed using the Cox proportional hazards model. Results: Univariate and multivariate analysis revealed that control of the primary tumor, small number of brain metastases, Karnofsky performance scale (KPS) > 70, and initial treatment modalities were significant predictors for survival. For RPA class 1, SRS plus WBRT was associated with a longer survival time compared with SRS alone (854 days vs. 426 days, p = 0.042). The SRS plus WBRT group also showed better LC rate than did the SRS-alone group (p = 0.021), although they did not show a better DC rate (p = 0.079). By contrast, for RPA class 2 or 3, no significant difference in OS, LC, or DC was found between the two groups. Conclusions: These results suggest that RPA classification should determine whether or not WBRT is added to SRS. WBRT may be recommended to be added to SRS for patients in whom long-term survival is expected on the basis of RPA classification.« less

Effectiveness of Cetuximab in Combination with Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy in Locoregionally Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: A 1:2 Propensity Score-matched Analysis.

PubMed

Wu, Li-Rong; Zhu, Huan-Feng; Xu, Jianhua; Jiang, Xue-Song; Yin, Li; Jiang, Ning; Zong, Dan; Wang, Fei-Jiang; Huang, Sheng-Fu; Bian, Xiu-Hua; Wu, Jian-Feng; Song, Dan; Guo, Wen-Jie; Liu, Ju-Ying; He, Xia

2018-01-01

Background : This study aimed to compare concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) plus cetuximab (C) with CCRT alone in locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma(NPC). Methods : A total of 682 locoregionally advanced NPC patients who had undergone chemoradiotherapy with or without cetuximab were included. Propensity score-matching method was used to match patients. Progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), locoregional relapse-free survival (LRFS), and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) were compared between the two treatment arms. Results : After matching, 225 patients were identified for the analysis. Compared to CCRT, CCRT plus C was associated with significantly improved 3-year PFS (83.7% vs 71.9%, P = 0.036), LRFS (98.6% vs 90.2%, P = 0.034) but not OS (91.4% vs 85.4%, P = 0.117). Among patients with T4 and/or N3 category, CCRT plus C significantly prolonged 3-year PFS (81.0% vs 61.4%, P = 0.022) and increased 3-year OS (88.0% vs 77.9%, P = 0.086). No significant differences were observed between CCRT plus C and CCRT alone groups with regard to 3-year PFS, OS, LRFS and DMFS rates in stage III patients. Acute oral and oropharyngeal mucositis during radiotherapy were more common in the CCRT plus C than that in CCRT, but late toxicities were comparable. Conclusions: This study reveals that patients with locoregionally advanced NPC could benefit from the addition of cetuximab to CCRT, and this therapeutic gain mainly originated from T4 and/or N3 subgroup although suffering more acute moderate to severe toxicities.

Factors Associated With Early Mortality in Patients Treated With Concurrent Chemoradiation Therapy for Locally Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Warner, Andrew; Dahele, Max; Hu, Bo

Purpose: Concurrent chemoradiation therapy (con-CRT) is recommended for fit patients with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC) but is associated with toxicity, and observed survival continues to be limited. Identifying factors associated with early mortality could improve patient selection and identify strategies to improve prognosis. Methods and Materials: Analysis of a multi-institutional LA-NSCLC database consisting of 1245 patients treated with con-CRT in 13 institutions was performed to identify factors predictive of 180-day survival. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was performed to identify prognostic groups for 180-day survival. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to create a clinical nomogram predicting 180-daymore » survival based on important predictors from RPA. Results: Median follow-up was 43.5 months (95% confidence interval [CI]: 40.3-48.8) and 127 patients (10%) died within 180 days of treatment. Median, 180-day, and 1- to 5-year (by yearly increments) actuarial survival rates were 20.9 months, 90%, 71%, 45%, 32%, 27%, and 22% respectively. Multivariate analysis adjusted by region identified gross tumor volume (GTV) (odds ratio [OR] ≥100 cm{sup 3}: 2.61; 95% CI: 1.10-6.20; P=.029) and pulmonary function (forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV{sub 1}], defined as the ratio of FEV{sub 1} to forced vital capacity [FVC]) (OR <80%: 2.53; 95% CI: 1.09-5.88; P=.030) as significant predictors of 180-day survival. RPA resulted in a 2-class risk stratification system: low-risk (GTV <100 cm{sup 3} or GTV ≥100 cm{sup 3} and FEV{sub 1} ≥80%) and high-risk (GTV ≥100 cm{sup 3} and FEV{sub 1} <80%). The 180-day survival rates were 93% for low risk and 79% for high risk, with an OR of 4.43 (95% CI: 2.07-9.51; P<.001), adjusted by region. A clinical nomogram predictive of 180-day survival, incorporating FEV{sub 1}, GTV, N stage, and maximum esophagus dose yielded favorable calibration (R{sup 2} = 0.947). Conclusions: This analysis identified several risk factors associated with early mortality and suggests that future research in the optimization of pretreatment pulmonary function and/or functional lung avoidance treatment may alter the therapeutic ratio in this patient population.« less

Analysis of Observational Studies in the Presence of Treatment Selection Bias: Effects of Invasive Cardiac Management on AMI Survival Using Propensity Score and Instrumental Variable Methods

PubMed Central

Stukel, Thérèse A.; Fisher, Elliott S; Wennberg, David E.; Alter, David A.; Gottlieb, Daniel J.; Vermeulen, Marian J.

2007-01-01

Context Comparisons of outcomes between patients treated and untreated in observational studies may be biased due to differences in patient prognosis between groups, often because of unobserved treatment selection biases. Objective To compare 4 analytic methods for removing the effects of selection bias in observational studies: multivariable model risk adjustment, propensity score risk adjustment, propensity-based matching, and instrumental variable analysis. Design, Setting, and Patients A national cohort of 122 124 patients who were elderly (aged 65–84 years), receiving Medicare, and hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in 1994–1995, and who were eligible for cardiac catheterization. Baseline chart reviews were taken from the Cooperative Cardiovascular Project and linked to Medicare health administrative data to provide a rich set of prognostic variables. Patients were followed up for 7 years through December 31, 2001, to assess the association between long-term survival and cardiac catheterization within 30 days of hospital admission. Main Outcome Measure Risk-adjusted relative mortality rate using each of the analytic methods. Results Patients who received cardiac catheterization (n=73 238) were younger and had lower AMI severity than those who did not. After adjustment for prognostic factors by using standard statistical risk-adjustment methods, cardiac catheterization was associated with a 50% relative decrease in mortality (for multivariable model risk adjustment: adjusted relative risk [RR], 0.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.50–0.52; for propensity score risk adjustment: adjusted RR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.53–0.55; and for propensity-based matching: adjusted RR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.52–0.56). Using regional catheterization rate as an instrument, instrumental variable analysis showed a 16% relative decrease in mortality (adjusted RR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79–0.90). The survival benefits of routine invasive care from randomized clinical trials are between 8% and 21 %. Conclusions Estimates of the observational association of cardiac catheterization with long-term AMI mortality are highly sensitive to analytic method. All standard risk-adjustment methods have the same limitations regarding removal of unmeasured treatment selection biases. Compared with standard modeling, instrumental variable analysis may produce less biased estimates of treatment effects, but is more suited to answering policy questions than specific clinical questions. PMID:17227979

Bladder Function Preservation With Brachytherapy, External Beam Radiation Therapy, and Limited Surger in Bladder Cancer Patients: Long-Term Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aluwini, Shafak, E-mail: s.aluwini@erasmusmc.nl; Rooij, Peter H.E. van; Kirkels, Wim J.

2014-03-01

Purpose: To report long-term results of a bladder preservation strategy for muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) using external beam radiation therapy and brachytherapy/interstitial radiation therapy (IRT). Methods and Materials: Between May 1989 and October 2011, 192 selected patients with MIBC were treated with a combined regimen of preoperative external beam radiation therapy and subsequent surgical exploration with or without partial cystectomy and insertion of source carrier tubes for afterloading IRT using low dose rate and pulsed dose rate. Data for oncologic and functional outcomes were prospectively collected. The primary endpoints were local recurrence-free survival (LRFS), bladder function preservation survival, and salvage cystectomy-freemore » survival. The endpoints were constructed according to the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: The mean follow-up period was 105.5 months. The LRFS rate was 80% and 73% at 5 and 10 years, respectively. Salvage cystectomy-free survival at 5 and 10 years was 93% and 85%. The 5- and 10-year overall survival rates were 65% and 46%, whereas cancer-specific survival at 5 and 10 years was 75% and 67%. The distant metastases-free survival rate was 76% and 69% at 5 and 10 years. Multivariate analysis revealed no independent predictors of LRFS. Radiation Therapy Oncology Group grade ≥3 late bladder and rectum toxicity were recorded in 11 patients (5.7%) and 2 patients (1%), respectively. Conclusions: A multimodality bladder-sparing regimen using IRT offers excellent long-term oncologic outcome in selected patients with MIBC. The late toxicity rate is low, and the majority of patients preserve their functional bladder.« less

National trends in incidence and survival of chronic lymphocytic leukemia in Norway for 1953-2012: a systematic analysis of population-based data.

PubMed

Lenartova, Andrea; Johannesen, Tom Børge; Tjønnfjord, Geir Erland

2016-12-01

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia is a disease of the elderly, and despite major advances in treatment, remains incurable. The Cancer Registry of Norway has registered data on patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia since 1953. We aimed to analyze trends in incidence and survival of chronic lymphocytic leukemia in Norway. We identified 7664 patients reported with chronic lymphocytic leukemia to the registry between 1953 and 2012. We gathered information on sex, age at diagnosis, date of death and basis for diagnosis. The age-standardized incidence increased from 0.6/100.000 person-years in 1953 to 3.1/100,000 person-years in 2012. We found a significant decrease in median age between 1993-2002 and 2003-2012 (75 vs. 72 years, 95%CI: 2.52-3.98, P < 0.001). Men were diagnosed at a significantly younger age than women. Immunophenotyping has become the most important diagnostic method after 2002. Median observed survival increased from 3 years in 1952-1963 to 8.5 years in 2003-2012. Five- and 10-year age-standardized net survival increased throughout the whole period across age groups and reached 79% and 57%, respectively. Median observed survival was significantly shorter in men than in women in 1993-2002 (4.9 vs. 6.1 years, P < 0.001). The gap between survival rates for men and women was diminishing in 2003-2012 in patients younger than 60 years while it remained considerable in older patients. Despite an aging Norwegian population, chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) patients become younger at diagnosis. A fourfold increase in incidence, a prolonged survival, and major changes in diagnostic methods in Norway were observed. © 2016 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cross-Validation of Survival Bump Hunting by Recursive Peeling Methods.

PubMed

Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Choe, Michael; LeBlanc, Michael; Rao, J Sunil

2014-08-01

We introduce a survival/risk bump hunting framework to build a bump hunting model with a possibly censored time-to-event type of response and to validate model estimates. First, we describe the use of adequate survival peeling criteria to build a survival/risk bump hunting model based on recursive peeling methods. Our method called "Patient Recursive Survival Peeling" is a rule-induction method that makes use of specific peeling criteria such as hazard ratio or log-rank statistics. Second, to validate our model estimates and improve survival prediction accuracy, we describe a resampling-based validation technique specifically designed for the joint task of decision rule making by recursive peeling (i.e. decision-box) and survival estimation. This alternative technique, called "combined" cross-validation is done by combining test samples over the cross-validation loops, a design allowing for bump hunting by recursive peeling in a survival setting. We provide empirical results showing the importance of cross-validation and replication.

Cross-Validation of Survival Bump Hunting by Recursive Peeling Methods

PubMed Central

Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Choe, Michael; LeBlanc, Michael; Rao, J. Sunil

2015-01-01

We introduce a survival/risk bump hunting framework to build a bump hunting model with a possibly censored time-to-event type of response and to validate model estimates. First, we describe the use of adequate survival peeling criteria to build a survival/risk bump hunting model based on recursive peeling methods. Our method called “Patient Recursive Survival Peeling” is a rule-induction method that makes use of specific peeling criteria such as hazard ratio or log-rank statistics. Second, to validate our model estimates and improve survival prediction accuracy, we describe a resampling-based validation technique specifically designed for the joint task of decision rule making by recursive peeling (i.e. decision-box) and survival estimation. This alternative technique, called “combined” cross-validation is done by combining test samples over the cross-validation loops, a design allowing for bump hunting by recursive peeling in a survival setting. We provide empirical results showing the importance of cross-validation and replication. PMID:26997922

Large-scale data integration framework provides a comprehensive view on glioblastoma multiforme.

PubMed

Ovaska, Kristian; Laakso, Marko; Haapa-Paananen, Saija; Louhimo, Riku; Chen, Ping; Aittomäki, Viljami; Valo, Erkka; Núñez-Fontarnau, Javier; Rantanen, Ville; Karinen, Sirkku; Nousiainen, Kari; Lahesmaa-Korpinen, Anna-Maria; Miettinen, Minna; Saarinen, Lilli; Kohonen, Pekka; Wu, Jianmin; Westermarck, Jukka; Hautaniemi, Sampsa

2010-09-07

Coordinated efforts to collect large-scale data sets provide a basis for systems level understanding of complex diseases. In order to translate these fragmented and heterogeneous data sets into knowledge and medical benefits, advanced computational methods for data analysis, integration and visualization are needed. We introduce a novel data integration framework, Anduril, for translating fragmented large-scale data into testable predictions. The Anduril framework allows rapid integration of heterogeneous data with state-of-the-art computational methods and existing knowledge in bio-databases. Anduril automatically generates thorough summary reports and a website that shows the most relevant features of each gene at a glance, allows sorting of data based on different parameters, and provides direct links to more detailed data on genes, transcripts or genomic regions. Anduril is open-source; all methods and documentation are freely available. We have integrated multidimensional molecular and clinical data from 338 subjects having glioblastoma multiforme, one of the deadliest and most poorly understood cancers, using Anduril. The central objective of our approach is to identify genetic loci and genes that have significant survival effect. Our results suggest several novel genetic alterations linked to glioblastoma multiforme progression and, more specifically, reveal Moesin as a novel glioblastoma multiforme-associated gene that has a strong survival effect and whose depletion in vitro significantly inhibited cell proliferation. All analysis results are available as a comprehensive website. Our results demonstrate that integrated analysis and visualization of multidimensional and heterogeneous data by Anduril enables drawing conclusions on functional consequences of large-scale molecular data. Many of the identified genetic loci and genes having significant survival effect have not been reported earlier in the context of glioblastoma multiforme. Thus, in addition to generally applicable novel methodology, our results provide several glioblastoma multiforme candidate genes for further studies.Anduril is available at http://csbi.ltdk.helsinki.fi/anduril/The glioblastoma multiforme analysis results are available at http://csbi.ltdk.helsinki.fi/anduril/tcga-gbm/

Randomized comparison of two Internet-supported fertility-awareness-based methods of family planning.

PubMed

Fehring, Richard J; Schneider, Mary; Raviele, Kathleen; Rodriguez, Dana; Pruszynski, Jessica

2013-07-01

The aim was to compare the efficacy and acceptability of two Internet-supported fertility-awareness-based methods of family planning. Six hundred and sixty-seven women and their male partners were randomized into either an electronic hormonal fertility monitor (EHFM) group or a cervical mucus monitoring (CMM) group. Both groups utilized a Web site with instructions, charts and support. Acceptability was assessed online at 1, 3 and 6 months. Pregnancy rates were determined by survival analysis. The EHFM participants (N=197) had a total pregnancy rate of 7 per 100 users over 12 months of use compared with 18.5 for the CMM group (N=164). The log rank survival test showed a significant difference (p<.01) in survival functions. Mean acceptability for both groups increased significantly over time (p<.0001). Continuation rates at 12 months were 40.6% for the monitor group and 36.6% for the mucus group. In comparison with the CMM, the EHFM method of family planning was more effective. All users had an increase in acceptability over time. Results are tempered by the high dropout rate. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modelling lecturer performance index of private university in Tulungagung by using survival analysis with multivariate adaptive regression spline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasyim, M.; Prastyo, D. D.

2018-03-01

Survival analysis performs relationship between independent variables and survival time as dependent variable. In fact, not all survival data can be recorded completely by any reasons. In such situation, the data is called censored data. Moreover, several model for survival analysis requires assumptions. One of the approaches in survival analysis is nonparametric that gives more relax assumption. In this research, the nonparametric approach that is employed is Multivariate Regression Adaptive Spline (MARS). This study is aimed to measure the performance of private university’s lecturer. The survival time in this study is duration needed by lecturer to obtain their professional certificate. The results show that research activities is a significant factor along with developing courses material, good publication in international or national journal, and activities in research collaboration.

MyD88 and TLR4 Expression in Epithelial Ovarian Cancer

PubMed Central

Block, Matthew S.; Vierkant, Robert A.; Rambau, Peter F.; Winham, Stacey J.; Wagner, Philipp; Traficante, Nadia; Tołoczko, Aleksandra; Tiezzi, Daniel G.; Taran, Florin Andrei; Sinn, Peter; Sieh, Weiva; Sharma, Raghwa; Rothstein, Joseph H.; Cajal, Teresa Ramón y; Paz-Ares, Luis; Oszurek, Oleg; Orsulic, Sandra; Ness, Roberta B.; Nelson, Gregg; Modugno, Francesmary; Menkiszak, Janusz; McGuire, Valerie; McCauley, Bryan M.; Mack, Marie; Lubiński, Jan; Longacre, Teri A.; Li, Zheng; Lester, Jenny; Kennedy, Catherine J.; Kalli, Kimberly R.; Jung, Audrey Y.; Johnatty, Sharon E.; Jimenez-Linan, Mercedes; Jensen, Allan; Intermaggio, Maria P.; Hung, Jillian; Herpel, Esther; Hernandez, Brenda Y.; Hartkopf, Andreas D.; Harnett, Paul R.; Ghatage, Prafull; García-Bueno, José M.; Gao, Bo; Fereday, Sian; Eilber, Ursula; Edwards, Robert P.; de Sousa, Christiani B.; de Andrade, Jurandyr M.; Chudecka-Głaz, Anita; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Cazorla, Alicia; Brucker, Sara Y.; Alsop, Jennifer; Whittemore, Alice S.; Steed, Helen; Staebler, Annette; Moysich, Kirsten B.; Menon, Usha; Koziak, Jennifer M.; Kommoss, Stefan; Kjaer, Susanne K.; Kelemen, Linda E.; Karlan, Beth Y.; Huntsman, David G.; Høgdall, Estrid; Gronwald, Jacek; Goodman, Marc T.; Gilks, Blake; García, María José; Fasching, Peter A.; de Fazio, Anna; Deen, Suha; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Candido dos Reis, Francisco J.; Campbell, Ian G.; Brenton, James D.; Bowtell, David D.; Benítez, Javier; Pharoah, Paul D.P.; Köbel, Martin; Ramus, Susan J.; Goode, Ellen L.

2018-01-01

Objective To evaluate myeloid differentiation primary response gene 88 (MyD88) and Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) expression in relation to clinical features of epithelial ovarian cancer, histologic subtypes, and overall survival. Patients and Methods We conducted centralized immunohistochemical staining, semi-quantitative scoring, and survival analysis in 5263 patients participating in the Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis consortium. Patients were diagnosed between January 1, 1978, and December 31, 2014, including 2865 high-grade serous ovarian carcinomas (HGSOCs), with more than 12,000 person-years of follow-up time. Tissue microarrays were stained for MyD88 and TLR4, and staining intensity was classified using a 2-tiered system for each marker (weak vs strong). Results Expression of MyD88 and TLR4 was similar in all histotypes except clear cell ovarian cancer, which showed reduced expression compared with other histotypes (P<.001 for both). In HGSOC, strong MyD88 expression was modestly associated with shortened overall survival (hazard ratio [HR], 1.13; 95% CI, 1.01–1.26; P=.04) but was also associated with advanced stage (P<.001). The expression of TLR4 was not associated with survival. In low-grade serous ovarian cancer (LGSOC), strong expression of both MyD88 and TLR4 was associated with favorable survival (HR [95% CI], 0.49 [0.29–0.84] and 0.44 [0.21–0.89], respectively; P=.009 and P=.02, respectively). Conclusion Results are consistent with an association between strong MyD88 staining and advanced stage and poorer survival in HGSOC and demonstrate correlation between strong MyD88 and TLR4 staining and improved survival in LGSOC, highlighting the biological differences between the 2 serous histotypes. PMID:29502561

Using cure models for analyzing the influence of pathogens on salmon survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ray, Adam R; Perry, Russell W.; Som, Nicholas A.; Bartholomew, Jerri L

2014-01-01

Parasites and pathogens influence the size and stability of wildlife populations, yet many population models ignore the population-level effects of pathogens. Standard survival analysis methods (e.g., accelerated failure time models) are used to assess how survival rates are influenced by disease. However, they assume that each individual is equally susceptible and will eventually experience the event of interest; this assumption is not typically satisfied with regard to pathogens of wildlife populations. In contrast, mixture cure models, which comprise logistic regression and survival analysis components, allow for different covariates to be entered into each part of the model and provide better predictions of survival when a fraction of the population is expected to survive a disease outbreak. We fitted mixture cure models to the host–pathogen dynamics of Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and Coho Salmon O. kisutch and the myxozoan parasite Ceratomyxa shasta. Total parasite concentration, water temperature, and discharge were used as covariates to predict the observed parasite-induced mortality in juvenile salmonids collected as part of a long-term monitoring program in the Klamath River, California. The mixture cure models predicted the observed total mortality well, but some of the variability in observed mortality rates was not captured by the models. Parasite concentration and water temperature were positively associated with total mortality and the mortality rate of both Chinook Salmon and Coho Salmon. Discharge was positively associated with total mortality for both species but only affected the mortality rate for Coho Salmon. The mixture cure models provide insights into how daily survival rates change over time in Chinook Salmon and Coho Salmon after they become infected with C. shasta.

Can preoperative and postoperative CA19-9 levels predict survival and early recurrence in patients with resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma?

PubMed

Wang, Jun-Ke; Hu, Hai-Jie; Shrestha, Anuj; Ma, Wen-Jie; Yang, Qin; Liu, Fei; Cheng, Nan-Sheng; Li, Fu-Yu

2017-07-11

To investigate the predictive values of preoperative and postoperative serum CA19-9 levels on survival and other prognostic factors including early recurrence in patients with resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma. In univariate analysis, increased preoperative and postoperative CA19-9 levels in the light of different cut-off points (37, 100, 150, 200, 400, 1000 U/ml) were significantly associated with poor survival outcomes, of which the cut-off point of 150 U/ml showed the strongest predictive value (both P < 0.001). Preoperative to postoperative increase in CA19-9 level was also correlated with poor survival outcome (P < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, preoperative CA19-9 level > 150 U/ml was significantly associated with lymph node metastasis (OR = 3.471, 95% CI 1.216-9.905; P = 0.020) and early recurrence (OR = 8.280, 95% CI 2.391-28.674; P = 0.001). Meanwhile, postoperative CA19-9 level > 150 U/ml was also correlated with early recurrence (OR = 4.006, 95% CI 1.107-14.459; P = 0.034). Ninety-eight patients who had undergone curative surgery for hilar cholangiocarcinoma between 1995 and 2014 in our institution were selected for the study. The correlations of preoperative and postoperative serum CA19-9 levels on the basis of different cut-off points with survival and various tumor factors were retrospectively analyzed with univariate and multivariate methods. In patients with resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma, serum CA19-9 predict survival and early recurrence. Patients with increased preoperative and postoperative CA19-9 levels have poor survival outcomes and higher tendency of early recurrence.

Correlation of degree of hypothyroidism with survival outcomes in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma receiving vascular endothelial growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitors.

PubMed

Bailey, Erin B; Tantravahi, Srinivas K; Poole, Austin; Agarwal, Archana M; Straubhar, Alli M; Batten, Julia A; Patel, Shiven B; Wells, Chesley E; Stenehjem, David D; Agarwal, Neeraj

2015-06-01

Hypothyroidism is a common adverse effect of vascular endothelial growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor (VEGFR-TKI) therapy in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC). Some studies have shown an association with improved survival. However, hypothyroidism severity has not been correlated with survival outcomes. We report the incidence and severity of VEGFR-TKI therapy-associated hypothyroidism in correlation with the survival outcomes of patients with mRCC. A retrospective analysis of patients with mRCC who received VEGFR-TKIs (2004 through 2013) was conducted from a single institutional database. Hypothyroidism, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) were assessed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazard models. Of 125 patients with mRCC, 65 were eligible. Their median age was 59 years (range, 45-79 years), and 46 (70.8%) were male. Hypothyroidism occurred in 25 patients (38.5%), of whom 13 had a peak thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) level > 10 mIU/L during treatment. The median OS was significantly longer in patients with a peak TSH > 10 mIU/L than in patients with a peak TSH of ≤ 10 mIU/L (not reached vs. 21.4 months, P = .005). On multivariate analysis, risk criteria, number of previous therapies, and severe hypothyroidism (TSH > 10 mIU/L) during VEGFR-TKI therapy remained significant for improvements in PFS and OS. The severity of VEGFR-TKI therapy-associated hypothyroidism (TSH > 10 mIU/L) was associated with improved survival outcomes in patients with mRCC and should not necessitate a dose reduction or therapy discontinuation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Non-small cell lung cancer in never smokers: a clinical entity to be identified.

PubMed

Santoro, Ilka Lopes; Ramos, Roberta Pulcheri; Franceschini, Juliana; Jamnik, Sergio; Fernandes, Ana Luisa Godoy

2011-01-01

It has been recognized that patients with non-small cell lung cancer who are lifelong never-smokers constitute a distinct clinical entity. The aim of this study was to assess clinical risk factors for survival among never-smokers with non-small cell lung cancer. All consecutive non-small cell lung cancer patients diagnosed (n = 285) between May 2005 and May 2009 were included. The clinical characteristics of never-smokers and ever-smokers (former and current) were compared using chi-squared or Student's t tests. Survival curves were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and log-rank tests were used for survival comparisons. A Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was evaluated by adjusting for age (continuous variable), gender (female vs. male), smoking status (never- vs. ever-smoker), the Karnofsky Performance Status Scale (continuous variable), histological type (adenocarcinoma vs. non-adenocarcinoma), AJCC staging (early vs. advanced staging), and treatment (chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy vs. the best treatment support). Of the 285 non-small cell lung cancer patients, 56 patients were never-smokers. Univariate analyses indicated that the never-smoker patients were more likely to be female (68% vs. 32%) and have adenocarcinoma (70% vs. 51%). Overall median survival was 15.7 months (95% CI: 13.2 to 18.2). The never-smoker patients had a better survival rate than their counterpart, the ever-smokers. Never-smoker status, higher Karnofsky Performance Status, early staging, and treatment were independent and favorable prognostic factors for survival after adjusting for age, gender, and adenocarcinoma in multivariate analysis. Epidemiological differences exist between never- and ever-smokers with lung cancer. Overall survival among never-smokers was found to be higher and independent of gender and histological type.

Bridging Locoregional Therapy Prolongs Survival in Patients Listed for Liver Transplant with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xing, Minzhi; Sakaria, Sonali; Dhanasekaran, Renumathy

Background and AimsTo evaluate the long-term survival benefit of bridging locoregional therapy (LRT) prior to orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) within Milan criteria.MethodsOur transplant center registry was studied for all HCC patients within the Milan criteria who were listed for OLT from 1998 to 2013. Baseline clinical characteristics and median overall survival (OS) were calculated and stratified by LRT, OLT status, and wait times. Survival analysis was conducted using Kaplan–Meier estimation and log-rank test.ResultsOf 265 listed, 205 underwent OLT (mean follow-up 7.6 years). Of 205, 111 received bridging LRT (A), and 94 did not (B).more » Both were similar in demographics and tumor characteristics (p > 0.05). Median OS from HCC for A/B were 86.4 vs. 68.9 months (p = 0.01). Median OS from OLT for A/B were 74.6 vs. 63.6 months (p = 0.03). On multivariate analysis, independent predictors for survival from HCC were bridging LRT (p = 0.002) and high wait time (p = 0.008); independent predictors for survival from OLT were bridging LRT (p = 0.005) and high wait time (p = 0.005). Of 60 who were listed but did not undergo transplant, 44 received LRT (C) and 16 received best supportive care (D). Median OS from HCC for C/D were 37.1 vs. 24.8 months (p = 0.03).ConclusionsBridging LRT and high wait times were independent positive prognostic factors for survival from HCC diagnosis and OLT.« less

A 10-Year Retrospective Review of a Nonrandomized Cohort of 458 Patients Undergoing Radical Radiotherapy or Cystectomy in Yorkshire, UK

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Munro, Nicholas P., E-mail: nic@munron.plus.co; Sundaram, Subramnian K.; Weston, Philip

2010-05-01

Purpose: We have previously reported on the mortality, morbidity, and 5-year survival of 458 patients who underwent radical radiotherapy or surgery for invasive bladder cancer in Yorkshire from 1993 to 1996. We aim to present the 10-year outcomes of these patients and to reassess factors predicting survival. Methods and Materials: The Northern and Yorkshire Cancer Registry identified 458 patients whose cases were subjected to Kaplan-Meier all-cause survival analyses, and a retrospective casenote analysis was undertaken on 398 (87%) for univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards modeling. Additional proportional hazards regression modeling was used to assess the statistical significance of variablesmore » on overall survival. Results: The ratio of radiotherapy to cystectomy was 3:1. There was no significant difference in overall 10-year survival between those who underwent radiotherapy (22%) and radical cystectomy (24%). Univariate analyses suggested that female sex, performance status, hydronephrosis and clinical T stage, were associated with an inferior outcome at 10 years. Patient age, tumor grade, treatment delay, and caseload factors were not significant. Multivariate analysis models were created for 0-2 and 2-10 years after treatment. There were no significant differences in treatment for 0-2 years; however, after 2 years follow-up there was some evidence of increased survival for patients receiving surgery compared with radiotherapy (hazard ratio 0.66, 95% confidence interval: 0.44-1.01, p = 0.06). Conclusions: a 10-year minimum follow-up has rarely been reported after radical treatment for invasive bladder cancer. At 10 years, there was no statistical difference in all-cause survival between surgery and radiotherapy treatment modalities.« less

Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy Versus Surgery for Medically Operable Stage I Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer: A Markov Model-Based Decision Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Louie, Alexander V.; Rodrigues, George, E-mail: george.rodrigues@lhsc.on.ca; Department of Epidemiology/Biostatistics, University of Western Ontario, London, ON

Purpose: To compare the quality-adjusted life expectancy and overall survival in patients with Stage I non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with either stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) or surgery. Methods and Materials: We constructed a Markov model to describe health states after either SBRT or lobectomy for Stage I NSCLC for a 5-year time frame. We report various treatment strategy survival outcomes stratified by age, sex, and pack-year history of smoking, and compared these with an external outcome prediction tool (Adjuvant{exclamation_point} Online). Results: Overall survival, cancer-specific survival, and other causes of death as predicted by our model correlated closely withmore » those predicted by the external prediction tool. Overall survival at 5 years as predicted by baseline analysis of our model is in favor of surgery, with a benefit ranging from 2.2% to 3.0% for all cohorts. Mean quality-adjusted life expectancy ranged from 3.28 to 3.78 years after surgery and from 3.35 to 3.87 years for SBRT. The utility threshold for preferring SBRT over surgery was 0.90. Outcomes were sensitive to quality of life, the proportion of local and regional recurrences treated with standard vs. palliative treatments, and the surgery- and SBRT-related mortalities. Conclusions: The role of SBRT in the medically operable patient is yet to be defined. Our model indicates that SBRT may offer comparable overall survival and quality-adjusted life expectancy as compared with surgical resection. Well-powered prospective studies comparing surgery vs. SBRT in early-stage lung cancer are warranted to further investigate the relative survival, quality of life, and cost characteristics of both treatment paradigms.« less

Obesity paradox in group 1 pulmonary hypertension: analysis of the NIH-Pulmonary Hypertension registry

PubMed Central

Mazimba, S; Holland, E; Nagarajan, V; Mihalek, AD; Kennedy, JLW; Bilchick, KC

2017-01-01

Background The ‘obesity paradox’ refers to the fact that obese patients have better outcomes than normal weight patients. This has been observed in multiple cardiovascular conditions, but evidence for obesity paradox in pulmonary hypertension (PH) remains sparse. Methods We categorized 267 patients from the National Institute of Health-PH registry into five groups based on body mass index (BMI): underweight, normal weight, overweight, obese and morbidly obese. Mortality was compared in BMI groups using the X2 statistic. Five-year probability of death using the PH connection (PHC) risk equation was calculated, and the model was compared with BMI groups using Cox proportional hazards regression and Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival curves. Results Patients had a median age of 39 years (interquartile range 30–50 years), a median BMI of 23.4 kg m −2 (21.0–26.8 kg m−2) and an overall mortality at 5 years of 50.2%. We found a U-shaped relationship between survival and 1-year mortality with the best 1-year survival in overweight patients. KM curves showed the best survival in the overweight, followed by obese and morbidly obese patients, and the worst survival in normal weight and underweight patients (log-rank P = 0.0008). In a Cox proportional hazards analysis, increasing BMI was a highly significant predictor of improved survival even after adjustment for the PHC risk equation with a hazard ratio for death of 0.921 per kg m−2 (95% confidence interval: 0.886–0.954) (P < 0.0001). Conclusion We observed that the best survival was in the overweight patients, making this more of an ‘overweight paradox’ than an ‘obesity paradox’. This has implications for risk stratification and prognosis in group 1 PH patients. PMID:28209971

Weight Gain in Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Patients During Treatment With Split-Course Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy Is Associated With Superior Survival

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gielda, Benjamin T., E-mail: Benjamin_gielda@rush.edu; Mehta, Par; Khan, Atif

Background: Preoperative concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CRT) is an accepted treatment for potentially resectable, locally advanced, non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We reviewed a decade of single institution experience with preoperative split-course CRT followed by surgical resection to evaluate survival and identify factors that may be helpful in predicting outcome. Methods and Materials: All patients treated with preoperative split-course CRT and resection at Rush University Medical Center (RUMC) between January 1999 and December 2008 were retrospectively analyzed. Endpoints included overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), local-regional progression-free survival (LRPFS), and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS). Patient and treatment related variables were assessed for correlationmore » with outcomes. Results: A total of 54 patients were analyzed, 76% Stage IIIA, 18% Stage IIIB, and 6% oligometastatic. The pathologic complete response (pCR) rate was 31.5%, and the absence of nodal metastases (pN0) was 64.8%. Median OS and 3-year actuarial survival were 44.6 months and 50%, respectively. Univariate analysis revealed initial stage (p < 0.01) and percent weight change during CRT (p < 0.01) significantly correlated with PFS/OS. On multivariate analysis initial stage (HR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.18-4.90; p = 0.02) and percent weight change (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.67-0.93; p < 0.01) maintained significance with respect to OS. There were no cases of Grade 3+ esophagitis, and there was a single case of Grade 3 febrile neutropenia. Conclusions: The strong correlation between weight change during CRT and OS/PFS suggests that this clinical parameter may be useful as a complementary source of predictive information in addition to accepted factors such as pathological response.« less

Number of Lymph Nodes Removed and Survival after Gastric Cancer Resection: An Analysis from the US Gastric Cancer Collaborative.

PubMed

Gholami, Sepideh; Janson, Lucas; Worhunsky, David J; Tran, Thuy B; Squires, Malcolm Hart; Jin, Linda X; Spolverato, Gaya; Votanopoulos, Konstantinos I; Schmidt, Carl; Weber, Sharon M; Bloomston, Mark; Cho, Clifford S; Levine, Edward A; Fields, Ryan C; Pawlik, Timothy M; Maithel, Shishir K; Efron, Bradley; Norton, Jeffrey A; Poultsides, George A

2015-08-01

Examination of at least 16 lymph nodes (LNs) has been traditionally recommended during gastric adenocarcinoma resection to optimize staging, but the impact of this strategy on survival is uncertain. Because recent randomized trials have demonstrated a therapeutic benefit from extended lymphadenectomy, we sought to investigate the impact of the number of LNs removed on prognosis after gastric adenocarcinoma resection. We analyzed patients who underwent gastrectomy for gastric adenocarcinoma from 2000 to 2012, at 7 US academic institutions. Patients with M1 disease or R2 resections were excluded. Disease-specific survival (DSS) was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using log-rank and Cox regression analyses. Of 742 patients, 257 (35%) had 7 to 15 LNs removed and 485 (65%) had ≥16 LNs removed. Disease-specific survival was not significantly longer after removal of ≥16 vs 7 to 15 LNs (10-year survival, 55% vs 47%, respectively; p = 0.53) for the entire cohort, but was significantly improved in the subset of patients with stage IA to IIIA (10-year survival, 74% vs 57%, respectively; p = 0.018) or N0-2 disease (72% vs 55%, respectively; p = 0.023). Similarly, for patients who were classified to more likely be "true N0-2," based on frequentist analysis incorporating both the number of positive and of total LNs removed, the hazard ratio for disease-related death (adjusted for T stage, R status, grade, receipt of neoadjuvant and adjuvant therapy, and institution) significantly decreased as the number of LNs removed increased. The number of LNs removed during gastrectomy for adenocarcinoma appears itself to have prognostic implications for long-term survival. Copyright © 2015 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantitative comparison and reproducibility of pathologist scoring and digital image analysis of estrogen receptor β2 immunohistochemistry in prostate cancer.

PubMed

Rizzardi, Anthony E; Zhang, Xiaotun; Vogel, Rachel Isaksson; Kolb, Suzanne; Geybels, Milan S; Leung, Yuet-Kin; Henriksen, Jonathan C; Ho, Shuk-Mei; Kwak, Julianna; Stanford, Janet L; Schmechel, Stephen C

2016-07-11

Digital image analysis offers advantages over traditional pathologist visual scoring of immunohistochemistry, although few studies examining the correlation and reproducibility of these methods have been performed in prostate cancer. We evaluated the correlation between digital image analysis (continuous variable data) and pathologist visual scoring (quasi-continuous variable data), reproducibility of each method, and association of digital image analysis methods with outcomes using prostate cancer tissue microarrays (TMAs) stained for estrogen receptor-β2 (ERβ2). Prostate cancer TMAs were digitized and evaluated by pathologist visual scoring versus digital image analysis for ERβ2 staining within tumor epithelium. Two independent analysis runs were performed to evaluate reproducibility. Image analysis data were evaluated for associations with recurrence-free survival and disease specific survival following radical prostatectomy. We observed weak/moderate Spearman correlation between digital image analysis and pathologist visual scores of tumor nuclei (Analysis Run A: 0.42, Analysis Run B: 0.41), and moderate/strong correlation between digital image analysis and pathologist visual scores of tumor cytoplasm (Analysis Run A: 0.70, Analysis Run B: 0.69). For the reproducibility analysis, there was high Spearman correlation between pathologist visual scores generated for individual TMA spots across Analysis Runs A and B (Nuclei: 0.84, Cytoplasm: 0.83), and very high correlation between digital image analysis for individual TMA spots across Analysis Runs A and B (Nuclei: 0.99, Cytoplasm: 0.99). Further, ERβ2 staining was significantly associated with increased risk of prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) when quantified by cytoplasmic digital image analysis (HR 2.16, 95 % CI 1.02-4.57, p = 0.045), nuclear image analysis (HR 2.67, 95 % CI 1.20-5.96, p = 0.016), and total malignant epithelial area analysis (HR 5.10, 95 % CI 1.70-15.34, p = 0.004). After adjusting for clinicopathologic factors, only total malignant epithelial area ERβ2 staining was significantly associated with PCSM (HR 4.08, 95 % CI 1.37-12.15, p = 0.012). Digital methods of immunohistochemical quantification are more reproducible than pathologist visual scoring in prostate cancer, suggesting that digital methods are preferable and especially warranted for studies involving large sample sizes.

Prophylactic cranial irradiation in resected small cell lung cancer: A systematic review with meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Yang, Yang; Zhang, Danhong; Zhou, Xia; Bao, Wuan; Ji, Yonglin; Sheng, Liming; Cheng, Lei; Chen, Ying; Du, Xianghui; Qiu, Guoqin

2018-01-01

Background: The use of PCI in early operable patients with small cell lung cancer (SCLC) is still controversial. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review with meta-analysis to investigate the effects of PCI in resected SCLC patients. Methods: Relevant studies were identified from PubMed and EMBASE databases, the pooled hazard risks were obtained by the random-effects model. We also analyzed the brain metastasis (BM) risk in p-stage I patients without PCI. Results: Five retrospective studies were identified and a total of 1691 patients were included in our analysis, 315 of them received PCI. For all the resected patients, PCI was associated with improved overall survival (HR: 0.52, 95% CI: 0.33-0.82), and reduced brain metastasis risk (RR: 0.50, 95%CI: 0.32-0.78). However, with regard to p-stage I patients, no survival benefit was brought by PCI (HR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.34-2.24). Moreover, the pooled analysis of 7 studies found that the 5-year brain metastasis risk was relatively low (12%, 95% CI: 8%-17%) for p-stage I patients without PCI. Conclusions: PCI might be associated with a favorable survival advantage and reduced BM risk in complete resected SCLC patients, except for p-stage I patients. PMID:29344290

Heterogeneity of Glucose Metabolism in Esophageal Cancer Measured by Fractal Analysis of Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography Image: Correlation between Metabolic Heterogeneity and Survival.

PubMed

Tochigi, Toru; Shuto, Kiyohiko; Kono, Tsuguaki; Ohira, Gaku; Tohma, Takayuki; Gunji, Hisashi; Hayano, Koichi; Narushima, Kazuo; Fujishiro, Takeshi; Hanaoka, Toshiharu; Akutsu, Yasunori; Okazumi, Shinichi; Matsubara, Hisahiro

2017-01-01

Intratumoral heterogeneity is a well-recognized characteristic feature of cancer. The purpose of this study is to assess the heterogeneity of the intratumoral glucose metabolism using fractal analysis, and evaluate its prognostic value in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) studies of 79 patients who received curative surgery were evaluated. FDG-PET images were analyzed using fractal analysis software, where differential box-counting method was employed to calculate the fractal dimension (FD) of the tumor lesion. Maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) and FD were compared with overall survival (OS). The median SUVmax and FD of ESCCs in this cohort were 13.8 and 1.95, respectively. In univariate analysis performed using Cox's proportional hazard model, T stage and FD showed significant associations with OS (p = 0.04, p < 0.0001, respectively), while SUVmax did not (p = 0.1). In Kaplan-Meier analysis, the low FD tumor (<1.95) showed a significant association with favorable OS (p < 0.0001). In wthe multivariate analysis among TNM staging, serum tumor markers, FD, and SUVmax, the FD was identified as the only independent prognostic factor for OS (p = 0.0006; hazards ratio 0.251, 95% CI 0.104-0.562). Metabolic heterogeneity measured by fractal analysis can be a novel imaging biomarker for survival in patients with ESCC. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Cox-nnet: An artificial neural network method for prognosis prediction of high-throughput omics data.

PubMed

Ching, Travers; Zhu, Xun; Garmire, Lana X

2018-04-01

Artificial neural networks (ANN) are computing architectures with many interconnections of simple neural-inspired computing elements, and have been applied to biomedical fields such as imaging analysis and diagnosis. We have developed a new ANN framework called Cox-nnet to predict patient prognosis from high throughput transcriptomics data. In 10 TCGA RNA-Seq data sets, Cox-nnet achieves the same or better predictive accuracy compared to other methods, including Cox-proportional hazards regression (with LASSO, ridge, and mimimax concave penalty), Random Forests Survival and CoxBoost. Cox-nnet also reveals richer biological information, at both the pathway and gene levels. The outputs from the hidden layer node provide an alternative approach for survival-sensitive dimension reduction. In summary, we have developed a new method for accurate and efficient prognosis prediction on high throughput data, with functional biological insights. The source code is freely available at https://github.com/lanagarmire/cox-nnet.

TH-E-BRF-05: Comparison of Survival-Time Prediction Models After Radiotherapy for High-Grade Glioma Patients Based On Clinical and DVH Features

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Magome, T; Haga, A; Igaki, H

Purpose: Although many outcome prediction models based on dose-volume information have been proposed, it is well known that the prognosis may be affected also by multiple clinical factors. The purpose of this study is to predict the survival time after radiotherapy for high-grade glioma patients based on features including clinical and dose-volume histogram (DVH) information. Methods: A total of 35 patients with high-grade glioma (oligodendroglioma: 2, anaplastic astrocytoma: 3, glioblastoma: 30) were selected in this study. All patients were treated with prescribed dose of 30–80 Gy after surgical resection or biopsy from 2006 to 2013 at The University of Tokyomore » Hospital. All cases were randomly separated into training dataset (30 cases) and test dataset (5 cases). The survival time after radiotherapy was predicted based on a multiple linear regression analysis and artificial neural network (ANN) by using 204 candidate features. The candidate features included the 12 clinical features (tumor location, extent of surgical resection, treatment duration of radiotherapy, etc.), and the 192 DVH features (maximum dose, minimum dose, D95, V60, etc.). The effective features for the prediction were selected according to a step-wise method by using 30 training cases. The prediction accuracy was evaluated by a coefficient of determination (R{sup 2}) between the predicted and actual survival time for the training and test dataset. Results: In the multiple regression analysis, the value of R{sup 2} between the predicted and actual survival time was 0.460 for the training dataset and 0.375 for the test dataset. On the other hand, in the ANN analysis, the value of R{sup 2} was 0.806 for the training dataset and 0.811 for the test dataset. Conclusion: Although a large number of patients would be needed for more accurate and robust prediction, our preliminary Result showed the potential to predict the outcome in the patients with high-grade glioma. This work was partly supported by the JSPS Core-to-Core Program(No. 23003) and Grant-in-aid from the JSPS Fellows.« less

SU-E-T-131: Artificial Neural Networks Applied to Overall Survival Prediction for Patients with Periampullary Carcinoma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gong, Y; Yu, J; Yeung, V

Purpose: Artificial neural networks (ANN) can be used to discover complex relations within datasets to help with medical decision making. This study aimed to develop an ANN method to predict two-year overall survival of patients with peri-ampullary cancer (PAC) following resection. Methods: Data were collected from 334 patients with PAC following resection treated in our institutional pancreatic tumor registry between 2006 and 2012. The dataset contains 14 variables including age, gender, T-stage, tumor differentiation, positive-lymph-node ratio, positive resection margins, chemotherapy, radiation therapy, and tumor histology.After censoring for two-year survival analysis, 309 patients were left, of which 44 patients (∼15%) weremore » randomly selected to form testing set. The remaining 265 cases were randomly divided into training set (211 cases, ∼80% of 265) and validation set (54 cases, ∼20% of 265) for 20 times to build 20 ANN models. Each ANN has one hidden layer with 5 units. The 20 ANN models were ranked according to their concordance index (c-index) of prediction on validation sets. To further improve prediction, the top 10% of ANN models were selected, and their outputs averaged for prediction on testing set. Results: By random division, 44 cases in testing set and the remaining 265 cases have approximately equal two-year survival rates, 36.4% and 35.5% respectively. The 20 ANN models, which were trained and validated on the 265 cases, yielded mean c-indexes as 0.59 and 0.63 on validation sets and the testing set, respectively. C-index was 0.72 when the two best ANN models (top 10%) were used in prediction on testing set. The c-index of Cox regression analysis was 0.63. Conclusion: ANN improved survival prediction for patients with PAC. More patient data and further analysis of additional factors may be needed for a more robust model, which will help guide physicians in providing optimal post-operative care. This project was supported by PA CURE Grant.« less

Risk analysis for autonomous underwater vehicle operations in extreme environments.

PubMed

Brito, Mario Paulo; Griffiths, Gwyn; Challenor, Peter

2010-12-01

Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January-March 2009. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

KRAS Mutation as a Potential Prognostic Biomarker of Biliary Tract Cancers

PubMed Central

Yokoyama, Masaaki; Ohnishi, Hiroaki; Ohtsuka, Kouki; Matsushima, Satsuki; Ohkura, Yasuo; Furuse, Junji; Watanabe, Takashi; Mori, Toshiyuki; Sugiyama, Masanori

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND The aim of this study was to identify the unique molecular characteristics of biliary tract cancer (BTC) for the development of novel molecular-targeted therapies. MATERIALS AND METHODS We performed mutational analysis of KRAS, BRAF, PIK3CA, and FBXW7 and immunohistochemical analysis of EGFR and TP53 in 63 Japanese patients with BTC and retrospectively evaluated the association between the molecular characteristics and clinicopathological features of BTC. RESULTS KRAS mutations were identified in 9 (14%) of the 63 BTC patients; no mutations were detected within the analyzed regions of BRAF, PIK3CA, and FBXW7. EGFR overexpression was observed in 5 (8%) of the 63 tumors, while TP53 overexpression was observed in 48% (30/63) of the patients. Overall survival of patients with KRAS mutation was significantly shorter than that of patients with the wild-type KRAS gene (P = 0.005). By multivariate analysis incorporating molecular and clinicopathological features, KRAS mutations and lymph node metastasis were identified to be independently associated with shorter overall survival (KRAS, P = 0.004; lymph node metastasis, P = 0.015). CONCLUSIONS Our data suggest that KRAS mutation is a poor prognosis predictive biomarker for the survival in BTC patients. PMID:28008299

Survival benefits of pelvic lymphadenectomy versus pelvic and para-aortic lymphadenectomy in patients with endometrial cancer

PubMed Central

Guo, Weina; Cai, Jing; Li, Min; Wang, Hongbo; Shen, Yi

2018-01-01

Abstract Background: Despite that pelvic and para-aortic lymphadenectomy (PPaLND) is recommended as part of accurate surgical staging by International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) in endometrial cancer, the impact of para-aortic lymphadenectomy on survival remains controversial. The aim of this work is to evaluate the survival benefits or risks in endometrial cancer patients who underwent surgical staging with or without para-aortic lymphadenectomy using meta-analysis. Methods: Literature search was undertaken using PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases for relevant articles published between January 1, 1990, and January 1, 2017, without language restriction. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS); progression-free survival (PFS)/recurrence-free survival (RFS)/disease-free survival (DFS)/disease-related survival (DRS) was also analyzed. Subgroup analysis and sensitivity analysis were conducted to investigate the source of heterogeneity. Quality assessments were performed by Newcastle–Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale (NOS). Publication bias was evaluated by using Begg and Egger tests. The hazard ratio (HR) was pooled with random-effects or fixed-effects model as appropriate. Results: Eight studies with a total of 2793 patients were included. OS was significantly longer in PPaLND group than in pelvic lymphadenectomy (PLND) group for patients with endometrial cancer [HR 0.68; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.55–0.84, P < .001, I2 = 12.2%]. Subgroup analysis by recurrence risk explored the same association in patients at intermediate- or high-risk (HR 0.52; 95% CI 0.39–0.69, P < .001, I2 = 41.4%), but not for low-risk patients (HR 0.48; 95% CI 0.21–1.08, P = .077, I2 = 0). PPaLND with systematic resection of all para-aortic nodes up to renal vein also improved PFS/RFS/DFS/DRS, compared with PLND (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.37–0.72, P < .001, I2 = 0). No publication bias was observed among included studies. Conclusion: PPaLND is associated with favorable survival outcomes in endometrial cancer patients with intermediate- or high-risk of recurrence compared with PLND, particularly with regards to OS. PPaLND with systematic resection of all para-aortic nodes up to renal vein also improve PFS compared with PLND. Further large-scale randomized clinical trials are required to validate our findings. PMID:29505525

A meta-analysis of hyperfractionated and accelerated radiotherapy and combined chemotherapy and radiotherapy regimens in unresected locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck

PubMed Central

Budach, W; Hehr, T; Budach, V; Belka, C; Dietz, K

2006-01-01

Background Former meta-analyses have shown a survival benefit for the addition of chemotherapy (CHX) to radiotherapy (RT) and to some extent also for the use of hyperfractionated radiation therapy (HFRT) and accelerated radiation therapy (AFRT) in locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the head and neck. However, the publication of new studies and the fact that many older studies that were included in these former meta-analyses used obsolete radiation doses, CHX schedules or study designs prompted us to carry out a new analysis using strict inclusion criteria. Methods Randomised trials testing curatively intended RT (≥60 Gy in >4 weeks/>50 Gy in <4 weeks) on SCC of the oral cavity, oropharynx, hypopharynx, and larynx published as full paper or in abstract form between 1975 and 2003 were eligible. Trials comparing RT alone with concurrent or alternating chemoradiation (5-fluorouracil (5-FU), cisplatin, carboplatin, mitomycin C) were analyzed according to the employed radiation schedule and the used CHX regimen. Studies comparing conventionally fractionated radiotherapy (CFRT) with either HFRT or AFRT without CHX were separately examined. End point of the meta-analysis was overall survival. Results Thirty-two trials with a total of 10 225 patients were included into the meta-analysis. An overall survival benefit of 12.0 months was observed for the addition of simultaneous CHX to either CFRT or HFRT/AFRT (p < 0.001). Separate analyses by cytostatic drug indicate a prolongation of survival of 24.0 months, 16.8 months, 6.7 months, and 4.0 months, respectively, for the simultaneous administration of 5-FU, cisplatin-based, carboplatin-based, and mitomycin C-based CHX to RT (each p < 0.01). Whereas no significant gain in overall survival was observed for AFRT in comparison to CFRT, a substantial prolongation of median survival (14.2 months, p < 0.001) was seen for HFRT compared to CFRT (both without CHX). Conclusion RT combined with simultaneous 5-FU, cisplatin, carboplatin, and mitomycin C as single drug or combinations of 5-FU with one of the other drugs results in a large survival advantage irrespective the employed radiation schedule. If radiation therapy is used as single modality, hyperfractionation leads to a significant improvement of overall survival. Accelerated radiation therapy alone, especially when given as split course radiation schedule or extremely accelerated treatments with decreased total dose, does not increase overall survival. PMID:16448551

The impact of IGF-1R expression on the outcomes of patients with breast cancer: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Yan, Shunchao; Jiao, Xin; Li, Kai; Li, Wusheng; Zou, Huawei

2015-01-01

Purpose The value of insulin-like growth factor 1 receptor (IGF-1R) for predicting survival of patients with breast cancer remains controversial. The purpose of this study was to perform a meta-analysis of the published data to attempt to clarify the impact of IGF-1R. Methods Studies published between January 1, 1990 and October 1, 2014 were identified using an electronic search to aggregate the available survival results. Studies were included if they reported detecting IGF-1R expression in the primary breast cancer and analyzed patient survival data according to IGF-1R status. The principal outcome measures were hazard ratios (HRs) for survival of IGF-1R-positive patients. Combined HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using fixed- or random-effects models according to between-study heterogeneity. Results Ten studies, involving 5,406 patients, satisfied our inclusion criteria. Data from five studies provided the impact of IGF-1R on overall survival (OS), three studies the impact on breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS), and seven studies the impact on disease-free survival (DFS). The results of meta-analysis showed that for DFS, membranous IGF-1R positivity was not a significant predictor. The combined HR for OS/BCSS was 0.63 (95% CI: 0.42–0.95, P=0.03), indicating that membranous IGF-1R positivity was a significant predictor of better survival. IGF-1R cytoplasmic positivity was significantly associated with longer DFS and OS/BCSS (combined HR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.35–0.89, P=0.01; combined HR: 0.55, 95% CI: 0.35–0.85, P=0.008, respectively). The results of subgroup analysis suggested that membranous IGF-1R positivity in hormone-receptor-positive breast cancer was correlated with favorable DFS (combined HR: 0.61, 95% CI: 0.41–0.92, P=0.02) and OS/BCSS (combined HR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.57–0.93, P=0.01). Membranous IGF-1R positivity in triple-negative breast cancer predicted worse DFS (combined HR: 1.86, 95% CI: 1.03–3.34, P=0.04). Membranous IGF-1R positivity in Her-2-positive or ER (estrogen receptor)-negative breast cancer was not found to be a significant prognostic indicator. Conclusion The results of this meta-analysis suggest that IGF-1R expression has different prognostic values for patients with breast cancers of different molecular subtypes. It was a favorable prognostic indicator in unselected breast cancers and hormone-receptor-positive cancers, but indicated poor survival in triple-negative breast cancers. PMID:25674003

Cancer survival for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians: a national study of survival rates and excess mortality.

PubMed

Condon, John R; Zhang, Xiaohua; Baade, Peter; Griffiths, Kalinda; Cunningham, Joan; Roder, David M; Coory, Michael; Jelfs, Paul L; Threlfall, Tim

2014-01-31

National cancer survival statistics are available for the total Australian population but not Indigenous Australians, although their cancer mortality rates are known to be higher than those of other Australians. We aimed to validate analysis methods and report cancer survival rates for Indigenous Australians as the basis for regular national reporting. We used national cancer registrations data to calculate all-cancer and site-specific relative survival for Indigenous Australians (compared with non-Indigenous Australians) diagnosed in 2001-2005. Because of limited availability of Indigenous life tables, we validated and used cause-specific survival (rather than relative survival) for proportional hazards regression to analyze time trends and regional variation in all-cancer survival between 1991 and 2005. Survival was lower for Indigenous than non-Indigenous Australians for all cancers combined and for many cancer sites. The excess mortality of Indigenous people with cancer was restricted to the first three years after diagnosis, and greatest in the first year. Survival was lower for rural and remote than urban residents; this disparity was much greater for Indigenous people. Survival improved between 1991 and 2005 for non-Indigenous people (mortality decreased by 28%), but to a much lesser extent for Indigenous people (11%) and only for those in remote areas; cancer survival did not improve for urban Indigenous residents. Cancer survival is lower for Indigenous than other Australians, for all cancers combined and many individual cancer sites, although more accurate recording of Indigenous status by cancer registers is required before the extent of this disadvantage can be known with certainty. Cancer care for Indigenous Australians needs to be considerably improved; cancer diagnosis, treatment, and support services need to be redesigned specifically to be accessible and acceptable to Indigenous people.

Survival and tag loss in Moapa White River springfish implanted with passive integrated transponder tags

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dixon, Christopher J.; Mesa, Matthew G.

2011-01-01

We monitored survival and tag loss among Moapa White River springfish Crenichthys baileyi moapae that were surgically implanted with passive integrated transponder (PIT; 9 × 2 mm) tags. The fish used in the study ranged from 40 to 67 mm in total length and from 1.0 to 6.5 g in mass; the PIT tag: body weight ratios were 1.0–6.1%. Fish were held for 41 d in live cages within a small, warm desert stream. Survival did not differ between untagged control fish (94.5%) and tagged fish (95.6%). Survival did not appear to be influenced by fish size or PIT tag: body weight ratio, but the small number of fish that died precluded a detailed analysis. Tag retention was 100% among the 86 fish that survived over the 41 d. Our results suggest that surgically implanting 9-mm PIT tags into Moapa White River springfish as small as 40 mm is an effective method for marking them because it has minimal impacts on survival and tag retention is high. More work is needed on the effects of PIT tagging on growth and other performance metrics of springfish and other small desert fishes.

Adult Supratentorial Low-Grade Glioma: Long-Term Experience at a Single Institution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bauman, Glenn, E-mail: glenn.bauman@lhsc.on.c; Fisher, Barbara; Watling, Christopher

2009-12-01

Purpose: To report the long-term follow-up of a cohort of adult patients with supratentorial low-grade glioma treated at a single institution. Methods and Materials: A cohort of 145 adult patients treated at the London Regional Cancer Program between 1979 and 1995 was reviewed. Results: With a median follow-up of 105 months, the median progression-free survival was 61 months (95% confidence interval, 53-77), and the median overall survival was 118 months (95% confidence interval, 93-129). The 10- and 20-year progression-free and overall survival rate was 18% and 0% and 48% and 22%, respectively. Cox regression analysis confirmed the importance of age,more » histologic type, presence of seizures, Karnofsky performance status, and initial extent of surgery as prognostic variables for overall and cause-specific survival. Function among long-term survivors without tumor progression was good to excellent for most patients. Conclusion: Low-grade glioma is a chronic disease, with most patients dying of their disease. However, long-term survival with good function is possible. Survival is determined primarily by the disease factors with selection and timing of adjuvant treatments having less influence on outcome.« less

[Clinical analysis of prenatal diagnosis and intervention for primary pleural effusion of 13 cases].

PubMed

Wang, X Q; Li, W J; Yan, R L; Xiang, J W; Liu, M Y

2018-02-25

Objective: To optimize the clinical managements of primary fetal hydrothorax (PFHT) fetus by comparing the perinatal survival rate of different prenatal treatments. Methods: Totally 13 fetuses diagnosed with PFHT from July 2009 to December 2015 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University were collected and received prenatal expectant treatment, thoracocentesis (TC), and thoraco-amniotic shunting (TAS), respectively. The perinatal survival rate was compared among the three treatments. Results: Among 13 fetuses of PFHT, pleural effusion was absorbed or remained stable in 2(2/13) cases, and progressed in 11(11/13) cases. Six cases received expectant treatment (2 cases had termination of pregnancy due to progressing effusion, 2 cases had term delivery, and 2 cases had intrauterine death); the perinatal survival rate was 2/6. Six cases received TC (2 cases had term delivery, 2 cases had preterm delivery, and 2 cases had termination of pregnancy due to progressing effusion), the perinatal survival rate was 4/6. One case received TC+TAS (term delivery), the perinatal survival rate was 1/1. The overall perinatal survival rate of prenatal intrauterine intervention was 5/7. Conclusions: The clinical process of PFHT is changeable, and the pleural effusion will progress with gestational age. Intrauterine interventions could improve the perinatal survival rate.

Survival of Alzheimer's disease patients in Korea.

PubMed

Go, Seok Min; Lee, Kang Soo; Seo, Sang Won; Chin, Juhee; Kang, Sue J; Moon, So Young; Na, Duk L; Cheong, Hae-Kwan

2013-01-01

The natural history of Alzheimer's disease (AD) has rarely been studied in the Korean population. Our study on survival analyses in Korean AD patients potentially provides a basis for cross-cultural comparisons. We studied 724 consecutive patients from a memory disorder clinic in a tertiary hospital in Seoul, who were diagnosed as having AD between April 1995 and December 2005. Deaths were identified by the Statistics Korea database. The Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis, and a Cox proportional hazard model was used to assess factors related to patient survival. The overall median survival from the onset of first symptoms and from the time of diagnosis was 12.6 years (95% confidence interval 11.7-13.4) and 9.3 years (95% confidence interval 8.7-9.9), respectively. The age of onset, male gender, history of diabetes mellitus, lower Mini-Mental State Examination score, and higher Clinical Dementia Rating score were negatively associated with survival. There was a reversal of risk of AD between early-onset and later-onset AD, 9.1 years after onset. The results of our study show a different pattern of survival compared to those studies carried out with western AD populations. Mortality risk of early-onset AD varied depending on the duration of follow-up. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Sample size calculation for studies with grouped survival data.

PubMed

Li, Zhiguo; Wang, Xiaofei; Wu, Yuan; Owzar, Kouros

2018-06-10

Grouped survival data arise often in studies where the disease status is assessed at regular visits to clinic. The time to the event of interest can only be determined to be between two adjacent visits or is right censored at one visit. In data analysis, replacing the survival time with the endpoint or midpoint of the grouping interval leads to biased estimators of the effect size in group comparisons. Prentice and Gloeckler developed a maximum likelihood estimator for the proportional hazards model with grouped survival data and the method has been widely applied. Previous work on sample size calculation for designing studies with grouped data is based on either the exponential distribution assumption or the approximation of variance under the alternative with variance under the null. Motivated by studies in HIV trials, cancer trials and in vitro experiments to study drug toxicity, we develop a sample size formula for studies with grouped survival endpoints that use the method of Prentice and Gloeckler for comparing two arms under the proportional hazards assumption. We do not impose any distributional assumptions, nor do we use any approximation of variance of the test statistic. The sample size formula only requires estimates of the hazard ratio and survival probabilities of the event time of interest and the censoring time at the endpoints of the grouping intervals for one of the two arms. The formula is shown to perform well in a simulation study and its application is illustrated in the three motivating examples. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparison of Survival Outcomes Among Cancer Patients Treated In and Out of Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Clinical trials test the efficacy of a treatment in a select patient population. We examined whether cancer clinical trial patients were similar to nontrial, “real-world” patients with respect to presenting characteristics and survival. Methods We reviewed the SWOG national clinical trials consortium database to identify candidate trials. Demographic factors, stage, and overall survival for patients in the standard arms were compared with nontrial control subjects selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. Multivariable survival analyses using Cox regression were conducted. The survival functions from aggregate data across all studies were compared separately by prognosis (≥50% vs <50% average 2-year survival). All statistical tests were two-sided. Results We analyzed 21 SWOG studies (11 good prognosis and 10 poor prognosis) comprising 5190 patients enrolled from 1987 to 2007. Trial patients were younger than nontrial patients (P < .001). In multivariable analysis, trial participation was not associated with improved overall survival for all 11 good-prognosis studies but was associated with better survival for nine of 10 poor-prognosis studies (P < .001). The impact of trial participation on overall survival endured for only 1 year. Conclusions Trial participation was associated with better survival in the first year after diagnosis, likely because of eligibility criteria that excluded higher comorbidity patients from trials. Similar survival patterns between trial and nontrial patients after the first year suggest that trial standard arm outcomes are generalizable over the long term and may improve confidence that trial treatment effects will translate to the real-world setting. Reducing eligibility criteria would improve access to clinical trials. PMID:24627276

Biological variation in two Anopheles vestitipennis populations with different feeding preferences in southern Mexico.

PubMed

Ulloa, Armando; Rodríguez, Mario H; Arredondo-Jimenez, Juan I; Fernandez-Salas, Ildefonso

2005-12-01

The lengths of gonotrophic cycle and egg development and survival rate were studied in Anopheles vestitipennis collected in horse and human-baited traps in southern Mexico. The gonotrophic cycle duration was estimated using cross-correlation analysis, whereas the survival rate was assessed using a vertical method. Daily changes of parity rates gave significant correlation indices at 3 and 4 days in the zoophilic and anthropophilic populations, respectively. The minimum time required to develop mature eggs after blood feeding was 54 and 60 h, and the survival rate was 0.93 and 0.88 in zoophilic and anthropophilic female mosquito populations, respectively. These biological differences provide additional support for the existence of subpopulations with distinctive feeding preferences within An. vestitipennis in southern Mexico.

Detecting small-study effects and funnel plot asymmetry in meta-analysis of survival data: A comparison of new and existing tests.

PubMed

Debray, Thomas P A; Moons, Karel G M; Riley, Richard D

2018-03-01

Small-study effects are a common threat in systematic reviews and may indicate publication bias. Their existence is often verified by visual inspection of the funnel plot. Formal tests to assess the presence of funnel plot asymmetry typically estimate the association between the reported effect size and their standard error, the total sample size, or the inverse of the total sample size. In this paper, we demonstrate that the application of these tests may be less appropriate in meta-analysis of survival data, where censoring influences statistical significance of the hazard ratio. We subsequently propose 2 new tests that are based on the total number of observed events and adopt a multiplicative variance component. We compare the performance of the various funnel plot asymmetry tests in an extensive simulation study where we varied the true hazard ratio (0.5 to 1), the number of published trials (N=10 to 100), the degree of censoring within trials (0% to 90%), and the mechanism leading to participant dropout (noninformative versus informative). Results demonstrate that previous well-known tests for detecting funnel plot asymmetry suffer from low power or excessive type-I error rates in meta-analysis of survival data, particularly when trials are affected by participant dropout. Because our novel test (adopting estimates of the asymptotic precision as study weights) yields reasonable power and maintains appropriate type-I error rates, we recommend its use to evaluate funnel plot asymmetry in meta-analysis of survival data. The use of funnel plot asymmetry tests should, however, be avoided when there are few trials available for any meta-analysis. © 2017 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Unraveling the Oral Cancer lncRNAome: Identification of Novel lncRNAs Associated with Malignant Progression and HPV Infection

PubMed Central

Nohata, Nijiro; Abba, Martin C.; Gutkind, J. Silvio

2017-01-01

Objectives The role of long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) expression in human head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is still poorly understood. In this study, we aimed at establishing the onco-lncRNAome profiling of HNSCC and to identify lncRNAs correlating with prognosis and patient survival. Materials and Methods The Atlas of Noncoding RNAs in Cancer (TANRIC) database was employed to retrieve the lncRNA expression information generated from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) HNSCC RNA-sequencing data. RNA-sequencing data from HNSCC cell lines were also considered for this study. Bioinformatics approaches, such as differential gene expression analysis, survival analysis, principal component analysis, and Co-LncRNA enrichment analysis were performed. Results Using TCGA HNSCC RNA-sequencing data from 426 HNSCC and 42 adjacent normal tissues, we found 728 lncRNA transcripts significantly and differentially expressed in HNSCC. Among the 728 lncRNAs, 55 lncRNAs were significantly associated with poor prognosis, such as overall survival and/or disease-free survival. Next, we found 140 lncRNA transcripts significantly and differentially expressed between Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) positive tumors and HPV negative tumors. Thirty lncRNA transcripts were differentially expressed between TP53 mutated and TP53 wild type tumors. Co-LncRNA analysis suggested that protein-coding genes that are co-expressed with these deregulated lncRNAs might be involved in cancer associated molecular events. With consideration of differential expression of lncRNAs in a HNSCC cell lines panel (n=22), we found several lncRNAs that may represent potential targets for diagnosis, therapy and prevention of HNSCC. Conclusion LncRNAs profiling could provide novel insights into the potential mechanisms of HNSCC oncogenesis. PMID:27424183

An evaluation of the impact of donor BMI on survival and post-transplant obesity in pediatric liver transplant recipients

PubMed Central

Perito, Emily Rothbaum; Rhee, Sue; Glidden, Dave; Roberts, John Paul; Rosenthal, Philip

2012-01-01

Introduction In adult liver transplant recipients, donor BMI is associated with post-transplant obesity but not graft or patient survival. Given the U.S. obesity epidemic and already-limited supply of liver donors, clarifying whether donor BMI affects pediatric outcomes is important. Methods UNOS data on pediatric U.S. liver transplants 1990-2010 was evaluated. Data on transplants 2004-2010 (n=3788) was used for survival analysis with Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards models and for post-transplant obesity analysis with generalized estimating equations. Results For children receiving adult donor livers, donor BMI 25-35 kg/m2 was not associated with graft or patient survival in univariate or multivariate analyses. Donor BMI>35 kg/m2 increased the risk of graft loss (HR 2.54, 95%CI 1.29-5.01, p=0.007) and death (HR 3.56, 95%CI 1.64-7.72, p=0.001). For pediatric donors, donor BMI was not associated with graft loss or mortality in univariate or multivariate analysis. Donor overweight/obesity was not a risk factor for post-transplant obesity. Conclusions Overweight/obesity is common among liver transplant donors. This analysis suggests that for adult donors, BMI 25-35 should not by itself be a contraindication to liver donation. Severe obesity (BMI>35) in adult donors increased the risk of graft loss and mortality, even after adjustment for recipient, donor, and transplant risk factors. Post-transplant obesity was not associated with donor BMI in this analysis. Further research is needed to clarify the impact of donor obesity on pediatric liver transplant recipients. PMID:22467594

Evaluation of prognostic factors on recurrence after curative resections for hepatocellular carcinoma

PubMed Central

Han, Jae Hyun; Kim, Dong Goo; Na, Gun Hyung; Kim, Eun Young; Lee, Soo Ho; Hong, Tae Ho; You, Young Kyoung

2014-01-01

AIM: To select appropriate patients before surgical resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), especially those with advanced tumors. METHODS: From January 2000 to December 2012, we retrospectively analyzed the medical records of 298 patients who had undergone surgical resections for HCC with curative intent at our hospital. We evaluated preoperative prognostic factors associated with histologic grade of tumor, recurrence and survival, especially the findings of pre-operative imaging studies such as positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). And then, we established a scoring system to predict recurrence and survival after surgery dividing the patients into two groups based on a tumor size of 5 cm. RESULTS: Of the 298 patients, 129 (43.3%) developed recurrence during the follow-up period. The 5 year disease free survival and overall survival were 47.0% and 58.7% respectively. In multivariate analysis, a serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level of > 100 ng/mL and a standardized uptake value (SUV) of PET-CT of > 3.5 were predictive factors for histologic grade of tumor, recurrence, and survival. Tumor size of > 5 cm and a relative enhancement ratio (RER) calculated from preoperative MRI were also significantly associated with prognosis in univariate analysis. We established a scoring system to predict prognosis using AFP, SUV, and RER. In those with tumors of > 5 cm, it showed predicted both recurrence (P = 0.005) and survival (P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: The AFP, tumor size, SUV and RER are useful for prognosis preoperatively. An accurate prediction of prognosis is possible using our scoring system in large size tumors. PMID:25493027

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Douillard, Jean-Yves; Rosell, Rafael; De Lena, Mario

Purpose: To study the impact of postoperative radiation therapy (PORT) on survival in the Adjuvant Navelbine International Trialist Association (ANITA) randomized study of adjuvant chemotherapy. Methods and Materials: ANITA is a randomized trial of adjuvant cisplatin and vinorelbine chemotherapy vs. observation in completely resected non-small-cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC) Stages IB to IIIA. Use of PORT was recommended for pN+ disease but was not randomized or mandatory. Each center decided whether to use PORT before initiation of the study. We describe here the survival of patients with and without PORT within each treatment group of ANITA. No statistical comparison of survivalmore » was performed because this was an unplanned subgroup analysis. Results: Overall, 232 of 840 patients received PORT (33.3% in the observation arm and 21.6% in the chemotherapy arm). In univariate analysis, PORT had a deleterious effect on the overall population survival. Patients with pN1 disease had an improved survival from PORT in the observation arm (median survival [MS] 25.9 vs. 50.2 months), whereas PORT had a detrimental effect in the chemotherapy group (MS 93.6 months and 46.6 months). In contrast, survival was improved in patients with pN2 disease who received PORT, both in the chemotherapy (MS 23.8 vs. 47.4 months) and observation arm (median 12.7 vs. 22.7 months). Conclusion: This retrospective evaluation suggests a positive effect of PORT in pN2 disease and a negative effect on pN1 disease when patients received adjuvant chemotherapy. The results support further evaluation of PORT in prospectively randomized studies in completely resected pN2 NSCLC.« less

Local Recurrence After Uveal Melanoma Proton Beam Therapy: Recurrence Types and Prognostic Consequences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Caujolle, Jean-Pierre, E-mail: ncaujolle@aol.com; Paoli, Vincent; Chamorey, Emmanuel

Purpose: To study the prognosis of the different types of uveal melanoma recurrences treated by proton beam therapy (PBT). Methods and Materials: This retrospective study analyzed 61 cases of uveal melanoma local recurrences on a total of 1102 patients treated by PBT between June 1991 and December 2010. Survival rates have been determined by using Kaplan-Meier curves. Prognostic factors have been evaluated by using log-rank test or Cox model. Results: Our local recurrence rate was 6.1% at 5 years. These recurrences were divided into 25 patients with marginal recurrences, 18 global recurrences, 12 distant recurrences, and 6 extrascleral extensions. Fivemore » factors have been identified as statistically significant risk factors of local recurrence in the univariate analysis: large tumoral diameter, small tumoral volume, low ratio of tumoral volume over eyeball volume, iris root involvement, and safety margin inferior to 1 mm. In the local recurrence-free population, the overall survival rate was 68.7% at 10 years and the specific survival rate was 83.6% at 10 years. In the local recurrence population, the overall survival rate was 43.1% at 10 years and the specific survival rate was 55% at 10 years. The multivariate analysis of death risk factors has shown a better prognosis for marginal recurrences. Conclusion: Survival rate of marginal recurrences is superior to that of the other recurrences. The type of recurrence is a clinical prognostic value to take into account. The influence of local recurrence retreatment by proton beam therapy should be evaluated by novel studies.« less

The prognostic value of serum S100B in patients with cutaneous melanoma: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Mocellin, Simone; Zavagno, Giorgio; Nitti, Donato

2008-11-15

S100B protein detected in the serum of patients with cutaneous melanoma has been long reported as a prognostic biomarker. However, no consensus exists on its implementation in the routine clinical setting. This study aimed to comprehensively and quantitatively summarize the evidence on the suitability of serum S100B to predict patients' survival. Twenty-two series enrolling 3393 patients with TNM stage I to IV cutaneous melanoma were reviewed. Standard meta-analysis methods were applied to evaluate the overall relationship between S100B serum levels and patients' survival (meta-risk). Serum S100B positivity was associated with significantly poorer survival (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.23, 95% CI: 1.92-2.58, p < 0.0001). Between-study heterogeneity was significant, which appeared to be related mainly to dissemination bias and the inclusion of patients with stage IV disease. Considering stage I to III melanoma (n = 1594), the meta-risk remained highly significant (HR = 2.28, 95% CI: 1.8-2.89; p < 0.0001) and studies' estimates were homogeneous. Subgroup analysis of series reporting multivariate survival analysis supported S100B as a prognostic factor independent of the TNM staging system. Our findings suggest that serum S100B detection has a clinically valuable independent prognostic value in patients with melanoma, with particular regard to stage I-III disease. Further investigation focusing on this subset of patients is justified and warranted before S100B can be implemented in the routine clinical management of melanoma. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Reduced retinoids and retinoid receptors' expression in pancreatic cancer: A link to patient survival.

PubMed

Bleul, Tim; Rühl, Ralph; Bulashevska, Svetlana; Karakhanova, Svetlana; Werner, Jens; Bazhin, Alexandr V

2015-09-01

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) represents one of the deadliest cancers in the world. All-trans retinoic acid (ATRA) is the major physiologically active form of vitamin A, regulating expression of many genes. Disturbances of vitamin A metabolism are prevalent in some cancer cells. The main aim of this work was to investigate deeply the components of retinoid signaling in PDAC compared to in the normal pancreas and to prove the clinical importance of retinoid receptor expression. For the study, human tumor tissues obtained from PDAC patients and murine tumors from the orthotopic Panc02 model were used for the analysis of retinoids, using high performance liquid chromatography mass spectrometry and real-time RT-PCR gene expression analysis. Survival probabilities in univariate analysis were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox proportional hazards model was used for the multivariate analysis. In this work, we showed for the first time that the ATRA and all-trans retinol concentration is reduced in PDAC tissue compared to their normal counterparts. The expression of RARα and β as well as RXRα and β are down-regulated in PDAC tissue. This reduced expression of retinoid receptors correlates with the expression of some markers of differentiation and epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition as well as of cancer stem cell markers. Importantly, the expression of RARα and RXRβ is associated with better overall survival of PDAC patients. Thus, reduction of retinoids and their receptors is an important feature of PDAC and is associated with worse patient survival outcomes. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prognostic value of bone marrow involvement by clonal immunoglobulin gene rearrangements in follicular lymphoma

PubMed Central

Berget, Ellen; Helgeland, Lars; Liseth, Knut; Løkeland, Turid; Molven, Anders; Vintermyr, Olav Karsten

2014-01-01

Aims We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of routine use of PCR amplification of immunoglobulin gene rearrangements in bone marrow (BM) staging in patients with follicular lymphoma (FL). Methods Clonal rearrangements were assessed by immunoglobulin heavy and light-chain gene rearrangement analysis in BM aspirates from 96 patients diagnosed with FL and related to morphological detection of BM involvement in biopsies. In 71 patients, results were also compared with concurrent flow cytometry analysis. Results BM involvement was detected by PCR in 34.4% (33/96) of patients. The presence of clonal rearrangements by PCR was associated with advanced clinical stage (I–III vs IV; p<0.001), high FL International Prognostic Index (FLIPI) score (0–1, 2 vs ≥3; p=0.003), and detection of BM involvement by morphology and flow cytometry analysis (p<0.001 for both). PCR-positive patients had a significantly poorer survival than PCR-negative patients (p=0.001, log-rank test). Thirteen patients positive by PCR but without morphologically detectable BM involvement, had significantly poorer survival than patients with negative morphology and negative PCR result (p=0.002). The poor survival associated with BM involvement by PCR was independent of the FLIPI score (p=0.007, Cox regression). BM involvement by morphology or flow cytometry did not show a significant impact on survival. Conclusions Our results showed that routine use of PCR-based clonality analysis significantly improved the prognostic impact of BM staging in patients with FL. BM involvement by PCR was also an independent adverse prognostic factor. PMID:25233852

Drawing Nomograms with R: applications to categorical outcome and survival data.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhongheng; Kattan, Michael W

2017-05-01

Outcome prediction is a major task in clinical medicine. The standard approach to this work is to collect a variety of predictors and build a model of appropriate type. The model is a mathematical equation that connects the outcome of interest with the predictors. A new patient with given clinical characteristics can be predicted for outcome with this model. However, the equation describing the relationship between predictors and outcome is often complex and the computation requires software for practical use. There is another method called nomogram which is a graphical calculating device allowing an approximate graphical computation of a mathematical function. In this article, we describe how to draw nomograms for various outcomes with nomogram() function. Binary outcome is fit by logistic regression model and the outcome of interest is the probability of the event of interest. Ordinal outcome variable is also discussed. Survival analysis can be fit with parametric model to fully describe the distributions of survival time. Statistics such as the median survival time, survival probability up to a specific time point are taken as the outcome of interest.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghafoori, A. Paiman; Nelson, John W.; Willett, Christopher G.

Purpose: Extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma is an uncommon but lethal malignancy. We analyzed the role of definitive chemoradiotherapy for patients with nonmetastatic, locally advanced extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma treated at a single institution. Methods and Materials: This retrospective analysis included 37 patients who underwent external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) with concurrent chemotherapy and/or brachytherapy (BT) for locally advanced extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. Local control (LC) and overall survival (OS) were assessed, and univariate regression analysis was used to evaluate the effects of patient- and treatment-related factors on clinical outcomes. Results: Twenty-three patients received EBRT alone, 8 patients received EBRT plus BT, and 6 patients received BTmore » alone (median follow-up of 14 months). Two patients were alive without evidence of recurrence at the time of analysis. Actuarial OS and LC rates at 1 year were 59% and 90%, respectively, and 22% and 71%, respectively, at 2 years. Two patients lived beyond 5 years without evidence of recurrence. On univariate analysis, EBRT with or without BT improved LC compared to BT alone (97% vs. 56% at 1 year; 75% vs. 56% at 2 years; p = 0.096). Patients who received EBRT alone vs. BT alone also had improved LC (96% vs. 56% at 1 year; 80% vs. 56% at 2 years; p = 0.113). Age, gender, tumor location (proximal vs. distal), histologic differentiation, EBRT dose ({<=} or >50 Gy), EBRT planning method (two-dimensional vs. three-dimensional), and chemotherapy were not associated with patient outcomes. Conclusions: Patients with locally advanced extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma have poor survival. Long-term survival is rare. The majority of patients treated with EBRT had local control at the time of death, suggesting that symptoms due to the local tumor effect might be effectively controlled with radiation therapy, and EBRT is an important element of treatment. Novel treatment approaches are indicated in the therapy for this disease.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zauls, A. Jason, E-mail: zauls@musc.edu; Watkins, John M.; Wahlquist, Amy E.

Purpose: The American Society for Radiation Oncology published a Consensus Statement for accelerated partial breast irradiation identifying three groups: Suitable, Cautionary, and Unsuitable. The objective of this study was to compare oncologic outcomes in women treated with MammoSite brachytherapy (MB) vs. whole breast irradiation (WBI) after stratification into Statement groups. Methods: Eligible women had invasive carcinoma or ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) {<=}3 cm, and {<=}3 lymph nodes positive. Women were stratified by radiation modality and Statement groups. Survival analysis methods including Kaplan-Meier estimation, Cox regression, and competing risks analysis were used to assess overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS),more » time to local failure (TTLF), and tumor bed failure (TBF). Results: A total of 459 (183 MB and 276 WBI) patients were treated from 2002 to 2009. After a median follow-up of 45 months, we found no statistical differences by stratification group or radiation modality with regard to OS and DFS. At 4 years TTLF or TBF were not statistically different between the cohorts. Univariate analysis in the MB cohort revealed that nodal positivity (pN1 vs. pN0) was related to TTLF (hazard ratio 6.39, p = 0.02). There was a suggestion that DCIS histology had an increased risk of failure when compared with invasive ductal carcinoma (hazard ratio 3.57, p = 0.06). Conclusions: MB and WBI patients stratified by Statement groups seem to combine women who will have similar outcomes regardless of radiation modality. Although outcomes were similar, we remain guarded in overinterpretation of these preliminary results until further analysis and long-term follow-up data become available. Caution should be used in treating women with DCIS or pN1 disease with MB.« less

The Influence of Total Nodes Examined, Number of Positive Nodes, and Lymph Node Ratio on Survival After Surgical Resection and Adjuvant Chemoradiation for Pancreatic Cancer: A Secondary Analysis of RTOG 9704

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Showalter, Timothy N.; Winter, Kathryn A.; Berger, Adam C., E-mail: adam.berger@jefferson.edu

2011-12-01

Purpose: Lymph node status is an important predictor of survival in pancreatic cancer. We performed a secondary analysis of Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) 9704, an adjuvant chemotherapy and chemoradiation trial, to determine the influence of lymph node factors-number of positive nodes (NPN), total nodes examined (TNE), and lymph node ratio (LNR ratio of NPN to TNE)-on OS and disease-free survival (DFS). Patient and Methods: Eligible patients from RTOG 9704 form the basis of this secondary analysis of lymph node parameters. Actuarial estimates for OS and DFS were calculated using Kaplan-Meier methods. Cox proportional hazards models were performed to evaluatemore » associations of NPN, TNE, and LNR with OS and DFS. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were also performed. Results: There were 538 patients enrolled in the RTOG 9704 trial. Of these, 445 patients were eligible with lymph nodes removed. Overall median NPN was 1 (min-max, 0-18). Increased NPN was associated with worse OS (HR = 1.06, p = 0.001) and DFS (HR = 1.05, p = 0.01). In multivariate analyses, both NPN and TNE were associated with OS and DFS. TNE > 12, and >15 were associated with increased OS for all patients, but not for node-negative patients (n = 142). Increased LNR was associated with worse OS (HR = 1.01, p < 0.0001) and DFS (HR = 1.006, p = 0.002). Conclusion: In patients who undergo surgical resection followed by adjuvant chemoradiation, TNE, NPN, and LNR are associated with OS and DFS. This secondary analysis of a prospective, cooperative group trial supports the influence of these lymph node parameters on outcomes after surgery and adjuvant therapy using contemporary techniques.« less

SCD-HeFT: Use of RR Interval Statistics for Long-term Risk Stratification for Arrhythmic Sudden Cardiac Death

PubMed Central

Au-yeung, Wan-tai M.; Reinhall, Per; Poole, Jeanne E.; Anderson, Jill; Johnson, George; Fletcher, Ross D.; Moore, Hans J.; Mark, Daniel B.; Lee, Kerry L.; Bardy, Gust H.

2015-01-01

Background In the SCD-HeFT a significant fraction of the congestive heart failure (CHF) patients ultimately did not die suddenly from arrhythmic causes. CHF patients will benefit from better tools to identify if ICD therapy is needed. Objective To identify predictor variables from baseline SCD-HeFT patients’ RR intervals that correlate to arrhythmic sudden cardiac death (SCD) and mortality and to design an ICD therapy screening test. Methods Ten predictor variables were extracted from pre-randomization Holter data from 475 patients enrolled in the SCD-HeFT ICD arm using novel and traditional heart rate variability methods. All variables were correlated to SCD using Mann Whitney-Wilcoxon test and receiver operating characteristic analysis. ICD therapy screening tests were designed by minimizing the cost of false classifications. Survival analysis, including log-rank test and Cox models, was also performed. Results α1 and α2 from detrended fluctuation analysis, the ratio of low to high frequency power, the number of PVCs per hour and heart rate turbulence slope are all statistically significant for predicting the occurrences of SCD (p<0.001) and survival (log-rank p<0.01). The most powerful multivariate predictor tool using the Cox Proportional Hazards was α2 with a hazard ratio of 0.0465 (95% CI: 0.00528 – 0.409, p<0.01). Conclusion Predictor variables from RR intervals correlate to the occurrences of SCD and distinguish survival among SCD-HeFT ICD patients. We believe SCD prediction models should incorporate Holter based RR interval analysis to refine ICD patient selection especially in removing patients who are unlikely to benefit from ICD therapy. PMID:26096609

Stromal mast cells in invasive breast cancer are a marker of favourable prognosis: a study of 4,444 cases.

PubMed

Rajput, Ashish B; Turbin, Dmitry A; Cheang, Maggie Cu; Voduc, David K; Leung, Sam; Gelmon, Karen A; Gilks, C Blake; Huntsman, David G

2008-01-01

We have previously demonstrated in a pilot study of 348 invasive breast cancers that mast cell (MC) infiltrates within primary breast cancers are associated with a good prognosis. Our aim was to verify this finding in a larger cohort of invasive breast cancer patients and examine the relationship between the presence of MCs and other clinical and pathological features. Clinically annotated tissue microarrays (TMAs) containing 4,444 cases were constructed and stained with c-Kit (CD-117) using standard immunoperoxidase techniques to identify and quantify MCs. For statistical analysis, we applied a split-sample validation technique. Breast cancer specific survival was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier [KM] method and log rank test was used to compare survival curves. Survival analysis by KM method showed that the presence of stromal MCs was a favourable prognostic factor in the training set (P = 0.001), and the validation set group (P = 0.006). X-tile plot generated to define the optimal number of MCs showed that the presence of any number of stromal MCs predicted good prognosis. Multivariate analysis showed that the MC effect in the training set (Hazard ratio [HR] = 0.804, 95% Confidence interval [CI], 0.653-0.991, P = 0.041) and validation set analysis (HR = 0.846, 95% CI, 0.683-1.049, P = 0.128) was independent of age, tumor grade, tumor size, lymph node, ER and Her2 status. This study concludes that stromal MC infiltration in invasive breast cancer is an independent good prognostic marker and reiterates the critical role of local inflammatory responses in breast cancer progression.

Stromal mast cells in invasive breast cancer are a marker of favourable prognosis: a study of 4,444 cases

PubMed Central

Rajput, Ashish B.; Turbin, Dmitry A.; Cheang, Maggie CU; Voduc, David K.; Leung, Sam; Gelmon, Karen A.; Gilks, C. Blake

2007-01-01

Purpose We have previously demonstrated in a pilot study of 348 invasive breast cancers that mast cell (MC) infiltrates within primary breast cancers are associated with a good prognosis. Our aim was to verify this finding in a larger cohort of invasive breast cancer patients and examine the relationship between the presence of MCs and other clinical and pathological features. Experimental design Clinically annotated tissue microarrays (TMAs) containing 4,444 cases were constructed and stained with c-Kit (CD-117) using standard immunoperoxidase techniques to identify and quantify MCs. For statistical analysis, we applied a split-sample validation technique. Breast cancer specific survival was analyzed by Kaplan–Meier [KM] method and log rank test was used to compare survival curves. Results Survival analysis by KM method showed that the presence of stromal MCs was a favourable prognostic factor in the training set (P = 0.001), and the validation set group (P = 0.006). X-tile plot generated to define the optimal number of MCs showed that the presence of any number of stromal MCs predicted good prognosis. Multivariate analysis showed that the MC effect in the training set (Hazard ratio [HR] = 0.804, 95% Confidence interval [CI], 0.653–0.991, P = 0.041) and validation set analysis (HR = 0.846, 95% CI, 0.683–1.049, P = 0.128) was independent of age, tumor grade, tumor size, lymph node, ER and Her2 status. Conclusions This study concludes that stromal MC infiltration in invasive breast cancer is an independent good prognostic marker and reiterates the critical role of local inflammatory responses in breast cancer progression. PMID:17431762

Geographic remoteness, area-level socioeconomic disadvantage and inequalities in colorectal cancer survival in Queensland: a multilevel analysis

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background To explore the impact of geographical remoteness and area-level socioeconomic disadvantage on colorectal cancer (CRC) survival. Methods Multilevel logistic regression and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations were used to analyze geographical variations in five-year all-cause and CRC-specific survival across 478 regions in Queensland Australia for 22,727 CRC cases aged 20–84 years diagnosed from 1997–2007. Results Area-level disadvantage and geographic remoteness were independently associated with CRC survival. After full multivariate adjustment (both levels), patients from remote (odds Ratio [OR]: 1.24, 95%CrI: 1.07-1.42) and more disadvantaged quintiles (OR = 1.12, 1.15, 1.20, 1.23 for Quintiles 4, 3, 2 and 1 respectively) had lower CRC-specific survival than major cities and least disadvantaged areas. Similar associations were found for all-cause survival. Area disadvantage accounted for a substantial amount of the all-cause variation between areas. Conclusions We have demonstrated that the area-level inequalities in survival of colorectal cancer patients cannot be explained by the measured individual-level characteristics of the patients or their cancer and remain after adjusting for cancer stage. Further research is urgently needed to clarify the factors that underlie the survival differences, including the importance of geographical differences in clinical management of CRC. PMID:24152961

Topology based data analysis identifies a subgroup of breast cancers with a unique mutational profile and excellent survival.

PubMed

Nicolau, Monica; Levine, Arnold J; Carlsson, Gunnar

2011-04-26

High-throughput biological data, whether generated as sequencing, transcriptional microarrays, proteomic, or other means, continues to require analytic methods that address its high dimensional aspects. Because the computational part of data analysis ultimately identifies shape characteristics in the organization of data sets, the mathematics of shape recognition in high dimensions continues to be a crucial part of data analysis. This article introduces a method that extracts information from high-throughput microarray data and, by using topology, provides greater depth of information than current analytic techniques. The method, termed Progression Analysis of Disease (PAD), first identifies robust aspects of cluster analysis, then goes deeper to find a multitude of biologically meaningful shape characteristics in these data. Additionally, because PAD incorporates a visualization tool, it provides a simple picture or graph that can be used to further explore these data. Although PAD can be applied to a wide range of high-throughput data types, it is used here as an example to analyze breast cancer transcriptional data. This identified a unique subgroup of Estrogen Receptor-positive (ER(+)) breast cancers that express high levels of c-MYB and low levels of innate inflammatory genes. These patients exhibit 100% survival and no metastasis. No supervised step beyond distinction between tumor and healthy patients was used to identify this subtype. The group has a clear and distinct, statistically significant molecular signature, it highlights coherent biology but is invisible to cluster methods, and does not fit into the accepted classification of Luminal A/B, Normal-like subtypes of ER(+) breast cancers. We denote the group as c-MYB(+) breast cancer.

Alcohol and cigarette consumption predict mortality in patients with head and neck cancer: a pooled analysis within the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) Consortium

PubMed Central

Giraldi, L; Leoncini, E; Pastorino, R; Wünsch-Filho, V; de Carvalho, M; Lopez, R; Cadoni, G; Arzani, D; Petrelli, L; Bosetti, C; La Vecchia, C; Garavello, W; Polesel, J; Serraino, D; Simonato, L; Canova, C; Richiardi, L; Boffetta, P; Hashibe, M; Lee, Y C A; Boccia, S

2017-01-01

Abstract Background This study evaluated whether demographics, pre-diagnosis lifestyle habits and clinical data are associated with the overall survival (OS) and head and neck cancer (HNC)-specific survival in patients with HNC. Patients and methods We conducted a pooled analysis, including 4759 HNC patients from five studies within the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) Consortium. Cox proportional hazard ratios (HRs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated including terms reported significantly associated with the survival in the univariate analysis. Results Five-year OS was 51.4% for all HNC sites combined: 50.3% for oral cavity, 41.1% for oropharynx, 35.0% for hypopharynx and 63.9% for larynx. When we considered HNC-specific survival, 5-year survival rates were 57.4% for all HNC combined: 54.6% for oral cavity, 45.4% for oropharynx, 37.1% for hypopharynx and 72.3% for larynx. Older ages at diagnosis and advanced tumour staging were unfavourable predictors of OS and HNC-specific survival. In laryngeal cancer, low educational level was an unfavourable prognostic factor for OS (HR = 2.54, 95% CI 1.01–6.38, for high school or lower versus college graduate), and status and intensity of alcohol drinking were prognostic factors both of the OS (current drinkers HR = 1.73, 95% CI 1.16–2.58) and HNC-specific survival (current drinkers HR = 2.11, 95% CI 1.22–3.66). In oropharyngeal cancer, smoking status was an independent prognostic factors for OS. Smoking intensity (>20 cigarettes/day HR = 1.41, 95% CI 1.03–1.92) was also an independent prognostic factor for OS in patients with cancer of the oral cavity. Conclusions OS and HNC-specific survival differ among HNC sites. Pre-diagnosis cigarette smoking is a prognostic factor of the OS for patients with cancer of the oral cavity and oropharynx, whereas pre-diagnosis alcohol drinking is a prognostic factor of OS and HNC-specific survival for patients with cancer of the larynx. Low educational level is an unfavourable prognostic factor for OS in laryngeal cancer patients. PMID:28945835

A FORTRAN program for multivariate survival analysis on the personal computer.

PubMed

Mulder, P G

1988-01-01

In this paper a FORTRAN program is presented for multivariate survival or life table regression analysis in a competing risks' situation. The relevant failure rate (for example, a particular disease or mortality rate) is modelled as a log-linear function of a vector of (possibly time-dependent) explanatory variables. The explanatory variables may also include the variable time itself, which is useful for parameterizing piecewise exponential time-to-failure distributions in a Gompertz-like or Weibull-like way as a more efficient alternative to Cox's proportional hazards model. Maximum likelihood estimates of the coefficients of the log-linear relationship are obtained from the iterative Newton-Raphson method. The program runs on a personal computer under DOS; running time is quite acceptable, even for large samples.

CASAS: Cancer Survival Analysis Suite, a web based application

PubMed Central

Rupji, Manali; Zhang, Xinyan; Kowalski, Jeanne

2017-01-01

We present CASAS, a shiny R based tool for interactive survival analysis and visualization of results. The tool provides a web-based one stop shop to perform the following types of survival analysis:  quantile, landmark and competing risks, in addition to standard survival analysis.  The interface makes it easy to perform such survival analyses and obtain results using the interactive Kaplan-Meier and cumulative incidence plots.  Univariate analysis can be performed on one or several user specified variable(s) simultaneously, the results of which are displayed in a single table that includes log rank p-values and hazard ratios along with their significance. For several quantile survival analyses from multiple cancer types, a single summary grid is constructed. The CASAS package has been implemented in R and is available via http://shinygispa.winship.emory.edu/CASAS/. The developmental repository is available at https://github.com/manalirupji/CASAS/. PMID:28928946

CASAS: Cancer Survival Analysis Suite, a web based application.

PubMed

Rupji, Manali; Zhang, Xinyan; Kowalski, Jeanne

2017-01-01

We present CASAS, a shiny R based tool for interactive survival analysis and visualization of results. The tool provides a web-based one stop shop to perform the following types of survival analysis:  quantile, landmark and competing risks, in addition to standard survival analysis.  The interface makes it easy to perform such survival analyses and obtain results using the interactive Kaplan-Meier and cumulative incidence plots.  Univariate analysis can be performed on one or several user specified variable(s) simultaneously, the results of which are displayed in a single table that includes log rank p-values and hazard ratios along with their significance. For several quantile survival analyses from multiple cancer types, a single summary grid is constructed. The CASAS package has been implemented in R and is available via http://shinygispa.winship.emory.edu/CASAS/. The developmental repository is available at https://github.com/manalirupji/CASAS/.

Attrition in Psychotherapy: A Survival Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roseborough, David John; McLeod, Jeffrey T.; Wright, Florence I.

2016-01-01

Purpose: Attrition is a common problem in psychotherapy and can be defined as clients ending treatment before achieving an optimal response. Method: This longitudinal, archival study utilized data for 3,728 clients, using the Outcome Questionnaire 45.2. A Cox regression proportional hazards (hazard ratios) model was used in order to better…

Effectiveness of various public private partnership pavement rehabilitation treatments: A big data informatics survival analysis of pavement service life : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-09-29

Past research efforts have used a wide variety of methodological approaches to analyze pavement performance indicators, pavement rehabilitation treatments, and pavement service life. Using big data informatics methods, the intent of this study is to ...

Adjuvant chemotherapy for endometrial cancer after hysterectomy

PubMed Central

Johnson, Nick; Bryant, Andrew; Miles, Tracie; Hogberg, Thomas; Cornes, Paul

2014-01-01

Background Endometrial adenocarcinoma (womb cancer) is a malignant growth of the lining (endometrium) of the womb (uterus). It is distinct from sarcomas (tumours of the uterine muscle). Survival depends the risk of microscopic metastases after surgery. Adjuvant (postoperative) chemotherapy improves survival from some other adenocarcinomas, and there is evidence that endometrial cancer is sensitive to cytotoxic therapy. This systematic review examines the effect of chemotherapy on survival after hysterectomy for endometrial cancer. Objectives To assess efficacy of adjuvant (postoperative) chemotherapy for endometrial cancer. Search methods We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL, The Cochrane Library 2010, Issue 3), MEDLINE and EMBASE up to August 2010, registers of clinical trials, abstracts of scientific meetings, reference lists of included studies and contacted experts in the field. Selection criteria Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing adjuvant chemotherapy with any other adjuvant treatment or no other treatment. Data collection and analysis We used a random-effects meta-analysis to assess hazard ratios (HR) for overall and progression-free survival and risk ratios (RR) to compare death rates and site of initial relapse. Main results Five RCTs compared no additional treatment with additional chemotherapy after hysterectomy and radiotherapy. Four trials compared platinum based combination chemotherapy directly with radiotherapy. Indiscriminate pooling of survival data from 2197 women shows a significant overall survival advantage from adjuvant chemotherapy (RR (95% CI) = 0.88 (0.79 to 0.99)). Sensitivity analysis focused on trials of modern platinum based chemotherapy regimens and found the relative risk of death to be 0.85 ((0.76 to 0.96); number needed to treat for an additional beneficial outcome (NNT) = 25; absolute risk reduction = 4% (1% to 8%)). The HR for overall survival is 0.74 (0.64 to 0.89), significantly favouring the addition of postoperative platinum based chemotherapy. The HR for progression-free survival is 0.75 (0.64 to 0.89). This means that chemotherapy reduces the risk of being dead at any censorship by a quarter. Chemotherapy reduces the risk of developing the first recurrence outside the pelvis (RR = 0.79 (0.68 to 0.92), 5% absolute risk reduction; NNT = 20). The analysis of pelvic recurrence rates is underpowered but the trend suggests that chemotherapy may be less effective than radiotherapy in a direct comparison (RR = 1.28 (0.97 to 1.68)) but it may have added value when used with radiotherapy (RR = 0.48 (0.20 to 1.18)). Authors’ conclusions Postoperative platinum based chemotherapy is associated with a small benefit in progression-free survival and overall survival irrespective of radiotherapy treatment. It reduces the risk of developing a metastasis, could be an alternative to radiotherapy and has added value when used with radiotherapy. PMID:21975736

Effect of Pathologic Tumor Response and Nodal Status on Survival in the Medical Research Council Adjuvant Gastric Infusional Chemotherapy Trial

PubMed Central

Smyth, Elizabeth C.; Fassan, Matteo; Cunningham, David; Allum, William H.; Okines, Alicia F.C.; Lampis, Andrea; Hahne, Jens C.; Rugge, Massimo; Peckitt, Clare; Nankivell, Matthew; Langley, Ruth; Ghidini, Michele; Braconi, Chiara; Wotherspoon, Andrew; Grabsch, Heike I.

2016-01-01

Purpose The Medical Research Council Adjuvant Gastric Infusional Chemotherapy (MAGIC) trial established perioperative epirubicin, cisplatin, and fluorouracil chemotherapy as a standard of care for patients with resectable esophagogastric cancer. However, identification of patients at risk for relapse remains challenging. We evaluated whether pathologic response and lymph node status after neoadjuvant chemotherapy are prognostic in patients treated in the MAGIC trial. Materials and Methods Pathologic regression was assessed in resection specimens by two independent pathologists using the Mandard tumor regression grading system (TRG). Differences in overall survival (OS) according to TRG were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate analyses using the Cox proportional hazards method established the relationships among TRG, clinical-pathologic variables, and OS. Results Three hundred thirty resection specimens were analyzed. In chemotherapy-treated patients with a TRG of 1 or 2, median OS was not reached, whereas for patients with a TRG of 3, 4, or 5, median OS was 20.47 months. On univariate analysis, high TRG and lymph node metastases were negatively related to survival (Mandard TRG 3, 4, or 5: hazard ratio [HR], 1.94; 95% CI, 1.11 to 3.39; P = .0209; lymph node metastases: HR, 3.63; 95% CI, 1.88 to 7.0; P < .001). On multivariate analysis, only lymph node status was independently predictive of OS (HR, 3.36; 95% CI, 1.70 to 6.63; P < .001). Conclusion Lymph node metastases and not pathologic response to chemotherapy was the only independent predictor of survival after chemotherapy plus resection in the MAGIC trial. Prospective evaluation of whether omitting postoperative chemotherapy and/or switching to a noncross-resistant regimen in patients with lymph node-positive disease whose tumor did not respond to preoperative epirubicin, cisplatin, and fluorouracil may be appropriate. PMID:27298411

Kidney transplantation from deceased donors with elevated serum creatinine.

PubMed

Gallinat, Anja; Leerhoff, Sabine; Paul, Andreas; Molmenti, Ernesto P; Schulze, Maren; Witzke, Oliver; Sotiropoulos, Georgios C

2016-12-01

Elevated donor serum creatinine has been associated with inferior graft survival in kidney transplantation (KT). The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of elevated donor serum creatinine on short and long-term outcomes and to determine possible ways to optimize the use of these organs. All kidney transplants from 01-2000 to 12-2012 with donor creatinine ≥ 2 mg/dl were considered. Risk factors for delayed graft function (DGF) were explored with uni- and multivariate regression analyses. Donor and recipient data were analyzed with uni- and multivariate cox proportional hazard analyses. Graft and patient survival were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Seventy-eight patients were considered. Median recipient age and waiting time on dialysis were 53 years and 5.1 years, respectively. After a median follow-up of 6.2 years, 63 patients are alive. 1, 3, and 5-year graft and patient survival rates were 92, 89, and 89 % and 96, 93, and 89 %, respectively. Serum creatinine level at procurement and recipient's dialysis time prior to KT were predictors of DGF in multivariate analysis (p = 0.0164 and p = 0.0101, respectively). Charlson comorbidity score retained statistical significance by multivariate regression analysis for graft survival (p = 0.0321). Recipient age (p = 0.0035) was predictive of patient survival by multivariate analysis. Satisfactory long-term kidney transplant outcomes in the setting of elevated donor serum creatinine ≥2 mg/dl can be achieved when donor creatinine is <3.5 mg/dl, and the recipient has low comorbidities, is under 56 years of age, and remains in dialysis prior to KT for <6.8 years.

Standard (60 Gy) or Short-Course (40 Gy) Irradiation Plus Concomitant and Adjuvant Temozolomide for Elderly Patients With Glioblastoma: A Propensity-Matched Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Minniti, Giuseppe, E-mail: gminniti@ospedalesantandrea.it; Scientific Institute for Research, Hospitalization and Health Care; Scaringi, Claudia

Purpose: To evaluate 2 specific radiation schedules, each combined with temozolomide (TMZ), assessing their efficacy and safety in patients aged ≥65 years with newly diagnosed glioblastoma (GBM). Methods and Materials: Patients aged ≥65 years with Karnofsky performance status (KPS) ≥60 who received either standard (60 Gy) or short-course (40 Gy) radiation therapy (RT) with concomitant and adjuvant TMZ between June 2004 and October 2013 were retrospectively analyzed. A propensity score analysis was executed for a balanced comparison of treatment outcomes. Results: A total of 127 patients received standard RT-TMZ, whereas 116 patients underwent short-course RT-TMZ. Median overall survival and progression-free survival times were similar: 12 monthsmore » and 5.6 months for the standard RT-TMZ group and 12.5 months and 6.7 months for the short-course RT-TMZ group, respectively. Radiation schedule was associated with similar survival outcomes in either unadjusted or adjusted analysis. O{sup 6}-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase promoter methylation was the most favorable prognostic factor (P=.0001). Standard RT-TMZ therapy was associated with a significant rise in grade 2 and 3 neurologic toxicity (P=.01), lowering of KPS scores during the study (P=.01), and higher posttreatment dosing of corticosteroid (P=.02). Conclusions: In older adults with GBM, survival outcomes of standard and short-course RT-TMZ were similar. An abbreviated course of RT plus TMZ may represent a reasonable therapeutic approach for these patients, without loss of survival benefit and acceptable toxicity.« less

Impact of marital status during diagnosis on cancer-caused specific survival in acute myeloid leukemia patients: a case-control and population-based study

PubMed Central

Zheng, Zhuojun; Zhu, Yuandong; Li, Xiaodong; Hu, Wenwei; Jiang, Jingting

2017-01-01

Objective This study investigated the impact of marital status on cancer-caused specific mortality among acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients in the United States. Methods We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results program to identify 50,825 patients who had their clinical and follow-up information available and were diagnosed for AML between the years 1988 and 2015. The univariate and multivariable Cox regression models were used to analyze the patient data, and to minimize the group differences due to covariates between groups, a 1:1 propensity score matching was used in subsequent subgroup analysis. Results Our study demonstrated that married patients were less likely to die due to AML after adjusting for demographic and clinicopathological variables, than patients with variable unmarried status. Further analysis indicated that widowed, divorced and never married status correlated with poor cancer-cause specific survival than being married in almost all subgroups after being adjusted for the aforementioned variables (P<0.05). However, the difference between married and separated was not apparent. Moreover, similar survival analysis results were also observed in the 1:1 matched subgroups of marital status, but they displayed varied prognostic factors between them. The association of survival benefit with marriage in AML was consistent with the published survival benefit of conventional therapeutic approaches. Conclusion Overall, our study concluded that unmarried AML patients were at greater risk of cancer-specific mortality than married, and thus indicated that physicians should focus on health care strategies that target social support, in order to reduce the cancer-specific mortality in unmarried patients. PMID:28977979

Hypofractionation vs Conventional Radiation Therapy for Newly Diagnosed Diffuse Intrinsic Pontine Glioma: A Matched-Cohort Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Janssens, Geert O., E-mail: g.janssens@rther.umcn.nl; Jansen, Marc H.; Lauwers, Selmer J.

2013-02-01

Purpose: Despite conventional radiation therapy, 54 Gy in single doses of 1.8 Gy (54/1.8 Gy) over 6 weeks, most children with diffuse intrinsic pontine glioma (DIPG) will die within 1 year after diagnosis. To reduce patient burden, we investigated the role of hypofractionation radiation therapy given over 3 to 4 weeks. A 1:1 matched-cohort analysis with conventional radiation therapy was performed to assess response and survival. Methods and Materials: Twenty-seven children, aged 3 to 14, were treated according to 1 of 2 hypofractionation regimens over 3 to 4 weeks (39/3 Gy, n=16 or 44.8/2.8 Gy, n=11). All patients had symptomsmore » for {<=}3 months, {>=}2 signs of the neurologic triad (cranial nerve deficit, ataxia, long tract signs), and characteristic features of DIPG on magnetic resonance imaging. Twenty-seven patients fulfilling the same diagnostic criteria and receiving at least 50/1.8 to 2.0 Gy were eligible for the matched-cohort analysis. Results: With hypofractionation radiation therapy, the overall survival at 6, 9, and 12 months was 74%, 44%, and 22%, respectively. Progression-free survival at 3, 6, and 9 months was 77%, 43%, and 12%, respectively. Temporary discontinuation of steroids was observed in 21 of 27 (78%) patients. No significant difference in median overall survival (9.0 vs 9.4 months; P=.84) and time to progression (5.0 vs 7.6 months; P=.24) was observed between hypofractionation vs conventional radiation therapy, respectively. Conclusions: For patients with newly diagnosed DIPG, a hypofractionation regimen, given over 3 to 4 weeks, offers equal overall survival with less treatment burden compared with a conventional regimen of 6 weeks.« less

A Phase III Study of Conventional Radiation Therapy Plus Thalidomide Versus Conventional Radiation Therapy for Multiple Brain Metastases (RTOG 0118)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Knisely, Jonathan P.S.; Berkey, Brian; Chakravarti, Arnab

2008-05-01

Purpose: To compare whole-brain radiation therapy (WBRT) with WBRT combined with thalidomide for patients with brain metastases not amenable to resection or radiosurgery. Patients and Methods: Patients with Zubrod performance status 0-1, MRI-documented multiple (>3), large (>4 cm), or midbrain brain metastases arising from a histopathologically confirmed extracranial primary tumor, and an anticipated survival of >8 weeks were randomized to receive WBRT to a dose of 37.5 Gy in 15 fractions with or without thalidomide during and after WBRT. Prerandomization stratification used Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) Recursive Partitioning Analysis (RPA) Class and whether post-WBRT chemotherapy was planned. Endpoints includedmore » overall survival, progression-free survival, time to neurocognitive progression, the cause of death, toxicities, and quality of life. A protocol-planned interim analysis documented that the trial had an extremely low probability of ever showing a significant difference favoring the thalidomide arm given the results at the time of the analysis, and it was therefore closed on the basis of predefined statistical guidelines. Results: Enrolled in the study were 332 patients. Of 183 accrued patients, 93 were randomized to receive WBRT alone and 90 to WBRT and thalidomide. Median survival was 3.9 months for both arms. No novel toxicities were seen, but thalidomide was not well tolerated in this population. Forty-eight percent of patients discontinued thalidomide because of side effects. Conclusion: Thalidomide provided no survival benefit for patients with multiple, large, or midbrain metastases when combined with WBRT; nearly half the patients discontinued thalidomide due to side effects.« less

Role of lymphadenectomy in intermediate-risk endometrial cancer: a matched-pair study

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Objective To assess the impact of lymph node dissection (LND) on morbidity, survival, and cost for intermediate-risk endometrial cancers (IREC). Methods A multicenter retrospective cohort of 720 women with IREC (endometrioid histology with myometrial invasion <50% and grade 3; or myometrial invasion ≥50% and grades 1–2; or cervical involvement and grades 1–2) was carried out. All patients underwent hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy. A matched pair analysis identified 178 pairs (178 with LND and 178 without it) equal in age, body mass index, co-morbidities, American Society of Anesthesiologist score, myometrial invasion, and surgical approach. Demographic data, pathology results, perioperative morbidity, and survival were abstracted from medical records. Disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Cost analysis was carried out between both groups. Results Both study groups were homogeneous in demographic data and pathologic results. The mean follow-up in patients free of disease was 61.7 months (range, 12.0–275.5). DFS (hazard ratio [HR]=1.34; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.79–2.28) and OS (HR=0.72; 95% CI=0.42–1.23) were similar in both groups, independently of nodes count. In LND group, positive nodes were found in 10 cases (5.6%). Operating time and late postoperative complications were higher in LND group (p<0.05). Infection rate was significantly higher in no-LND group (p=0.035). There were no statistical differences between both groups regarding operative morbidity and hospital stay. The global cost was similar for both groups. Conclusion Systematic LND in IREC has no benefit on survival, although it does not show an increase in perioperative morbidity or global cost. PMID:29185259

TERT promoter mutation and its interaction with IDH mutations in glioma: Combined TERT promoter and IDH mutations stratifies lower-grade glioma into distinct survival subgroups-A meta-analysis of aggregate data.

PubMed

Vuong, Huy Gia; Altibi, Ahmed M A; Duong, Uyen N P; Ngo, Hanh T T; Pham, Thong Quang; Chan, Aden Ka-Yin; Park, Chul-Kee; Fung, Kar-Ming; Hassell, Lewis

2017-12-01

The clinical significance of telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) promoter mutation in glioma remains unclear. The aim of our meta-analysis is to investigate the prognostic impact TERT promoter mutation in glioma patients and its interaction with other molecular markers, particularly Isocitrate Dehydrogenase (IDH) mutation from aggregate level data. Relevant articles were searched in four electronic databases including PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and Virtual Health Library. Pooled HRs were calculated using random effect model weighted by inverse variance method. From 1010 studies, we finally included 28 studies with 11519 patients for meta-analyses. TERT mutation is significantly associated with compromised overall survival (OS) (HR=1.38; 95% CI=1.15-1.67) and progression-free survival (PFS) (HR=1.31; 95% CI=1.06-1.63) in glioma patients. In studying its reaction with IDH, TERT promoter mutation was associated with reduced OS in both IDH-mutant (IDH-mut) and IDH-wild type (IDH-wt) glioblastomas but shown to have inverse effects on IDH-mut and IDH-wt grade II/III tumors. Our analysis categorized WHO grade II/III glioma patients into four distinct survival subgroups with descending survival as follow: TERT-mut/IDH-mut≫TERT-wt/IDH-mut≫TERT-wt/IDH-wt≫TERT-mut/IDH-wt. Prognostic value of TERT promoter mutations in gliomas is dependent on tumor grade and the IDH mutational status. With the same tumor grade in WHO grade II and III tumors and the same IDH mutation status, TERT-mut is a prognostic factor. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparing of Cox model and parametric models in analysis of effective factors on event time of neuropathy in patients with type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Kargarian-Marvasti, Sadegh; Rimaz, Shahnaz; Abolghasemi, Jamileh; Heydari, Iraj

2017-01-01

Cox proportional hazard model is the most common method for analyzing the effects of several variables on survival time. However, under certain circumstances, parametric models give more precise estimates to analyze survival data than Cox. The purpose of this study was to investigate the comparative performance of Cox and parametric models in a survival analysis of factors affecting the event time of neuropathy in patients with type 2 diabetes. This study included 371 patients with type 2 diabetes without neuropathy who were registered at Fereydunshahr diabetes clinic. Subjects were followed up for the development of neuropathy between 2006 to March 2016. To investigate the factors influencing the event time of neuropathy, significant variables in univariate model ( P < 0.20) were entered into the multivariate Cox and parametric models ( P < 0.05). In addition, Akaike information criterion (AIC) and area under ROC curves were used to evaluate the relative goodness of fitted model and the efficiency of each procedure, respectively. Statistical computing was performed using R software version 3.2.3 (UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS). Using Kaplan-Meier, survival time of neuropathy was computed 76.6 ± 5 months after initial diagnosis of diabetes. After multivariate analysis of Cox and parametric models, ethnicity, high-density lipoprotein and family history of diabetes were identified as predictors of event time of neuropathy ( P < 0.05). According to AIC, "log-normal" model with the lowest Akaike's was the best-fitted model among Cox and parametric models. According to the results of comparison of survival receiver operating characteristics curves, log-normal model was considered as the most efficient and fitted model.

Survival differences of Asian and Caucasian epithelial ovarian cancer patients in the United States.

PubMed

Fuh, Katherine C; Shin, Jacob Y; Kapp, Daniel S; Brooks, Rebecca A; Ueda, Stefanie; Urban, Renata R; Chen, Lee-May; Chan, John K

2015-03-01

To compare the racial differences in treatment and survival of Asian-Americans and White patients with epithelial ovarian cancer. Data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program between 1988 and 2009 and analyzed using Chi-squared tests, Kaplan-Meier methods, and Cox regression analysis. Of the 52,260 women, 3932 (7.5%) were coded as Asian, and 48,328 (92.5%) were White. The median age of Asians at diagnosis was 56 vs. 64 years for the Whites (p<0.001). Asians were more likely to undergo primary surgery, have an earlier stage of disease, have a diagnosis of a non-serous histology, and have lower grade tumors. The 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS) of Asians was higher compared to Whites (59.1% vs. 47.3%, p<0.001). On a subset analysis, Vietnamese, Filipino, Chinese, Korean, Japanese, and Asian Indian/Pakistani ethnicities had 5-year DSS of 62.1%, 61.5%, 61.0%, 59.0%, 54.6%, and 48.2%, respectively (p=0.015). On multivariate analysis, age at diagnosis, year of diagnosis, race, surgery, stage, and tumor grade were all independent prognostic factors for survival. Asians were further stratified to U.S. born versus those who were born in Asia and immigrated. Asian immigrants presented at a younger age compared to U.S. born Asians. Immigrants were found to have an improved 5-year DSS when compared to U.S. born Asians and Whites of 55%, 52%, and 48%, respectively (p<0.001). Asians were more likely to be younger, undergo primary surgery, have an earlier stage of disease, non-serous histology, lower grade tumors, and higher survival. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Impact of temperature and soil type on Mycobacterium bovis survival in the environment

PubMed Central

Barbier, Elodie; Rochelet, Murielle; Gal, Laurent; Boschiroli, Maria Laura

2017-01-01

Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of the bovine tuberculosis (bTB), mainly affects cattle, its natural reservoir, but also a wide range of domestic and wild mammals. Besides direct transmission via contaminated aerosols, indirect transmission of the M. bovis between wildlife and livestock might occur by inhalation or ingestion of environmental substrates contaminated through infected animal shedding. We monitored the survival of M. bovis in two soil samples chosen for their contrasted physical and-chemical properties (i.e. pH, clay content). The population of M. bovis spiked in sterile soils was enumerated by a culture-based method after 14, 30, 60, 90, 120 and 150 days of incubation at 4°C and 22°C. A qPCR based assay targeting the IS1561’ locus was also performed to monitor M. bovis in both sterile and biotic spiked soils. The analysis of survival profiles using culture-based method showed that M. bovis survived longer at lower temperature (4°C versus 22°C) whereas the impact of soil characteristics on M. bovis persistence was not obvious. Furthermore, qPCR-based assay detected M. bovis for a longer period of time than the culture based method with higher gene copy numbers observed in sterile soils than in biotic ones. Impact of soil type on M. bovis persistence need to be deepened in order to fill the gap of knowledge concerning indirect transmission of the disease. PMID:28448585

Impact of temperature and soil type on Mycobacterium bovis survival in the environment.

PubMed

Barbier, Elodie; Rochelet, Murielle; Gal, Laurent; Boschiroli, Maria Laura; Hartmann, Alain

2017-01-01

Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of the bovine tuberculosis (bTB), mainly affects cattle, its natural reservoir, but also a wide range of domestic and wild mammals. Besides direct transmission via contaminated aerosols, indirect transmission of the M. bovis between wildlife and livestock might occur by inhalation or ingestion of environmental substrates contaminated through infected animal shedding. We monitored the survival of M. bovis in two soil samples chosen for their contrasted physical and-chemical properties (i.e. pH, clay content). The population of M. bovis spiked in sterile soils was enumerated by a culture-based method after 14, 30, 60, 90, 120 and 150 days of incubation at 4°C and 22°C. A qPCR based assay targeting the IS1561' locus was also performed to monitor M. bovis in both sterile and biotic spiked soils. The analysis of survival profiles using culture-based method showed that M. bovis survived longer at lower temperature (4°C versus 22°C) whereas the impact of soil characteristics on M. bovis persistence was not obvious. Furthermore, qPCR-based assay detected M. bovis for a longer period of time than the culture based method with higher gene copy numbers observed in sterile soils than in biotic ones. Impact of soil type on M. bovis persistence need to be deepened in order to fill the gap of knowledge concerning indirect transmission of the disease.

Activation of the STAT3 Signaling Pathway Is Associated With Poor Survival in Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma Treated With R-CHOP

PubMed Central

Huang, Xin; Meng, Bin; Iqbal, Javeed; Ding, B. Belinda; Perry, Anamarija M.; Cao, Wenfeng; Smith, Lynette M.; Bi, Chengfeng; Jiang, Chunsun; Greiner, Timothy C.; Weisenburger, Dennis D.; Rimsza, Lisa; Rosenwald, Andreas; Ott, German; Delabie, Jan; Campo, Elias; Braziel, Rita M.; Gascoyne, Randy D.; Cook, James R.; Tubbs, Raymond R.; Jaffe, Elaine S.; Armitage, James O.; Vose, Julie M.; Staudt, Louis M.; McKeithan, Timothy W.; Chan, Wing C.; Ye, B. Hilda; Fu, Kai

2013-01-01

Purpose We previously reported that constitutive STAT3 activation is a prominent feature of the activated B-cell subtype of diffuse large B-cell lymphomas (ABC-DLBCL). In this study, we investigated whether STAT3 activation can risk stratify patients with DLBCL. Patients and Methods By an immunohistochemical method, we investigated phosphotyrosine STAT3 (PY-STAT3) expression from 185 patients with DLBCL treated with R-CHOP (rituximab plus cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone). Cell line-based siRNA experiments were also performed to generate an 11-gene, PY-STAT3 activation signature, which was used to study a previously published cohort of 222 patients with DLBCL. The STAT3 activation status determined by these two methods and by STAT3 mRNA levels were then correlated with survival. Results PY-STAT3 was detected in 37% of DLBCL and enriched in ABC-DLBCL cases (P = .03). PY-STAT3 positivity significantly correlated with poor overall survival (OS; P = .01) and event-free survival (EFS; P = .006). Similar observations were made for high levels of STAT3 mRNA. In multivariable analysis, PY-STAT3 status (P = .02), International Prognostic Index (P = .02), and BCL2 expression (P = .046) were independent prognosticators of OS in this cohort. Among the cell-of-origin subgroups, PY-STAT3 was associated with poor EFS among non–germinal center B-cell DLBCL cases only (P = .027). Similarly, the 11-gene STAT3 activation signature correlated with poor survival in the entire DLBCL cohort (OS, P < .001; EFS, P < .001) as well as the ABC-DLBCL subgroup (OS, P = .029; EFS, P = .025). Conclusion STAT3 activation correlated with poor survival in patients with DLBCL treated with R-CHOP, especially those with tumors of the ABC-DLBCL subtype. PMID:24220563

Creation of a Prognostic Index for Spine Metastasis to Stratify Survival in Patients Treated With Spinal Stereotactic Radiosurgery: Secondary Analysis of Mature Prospective Trials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, Chad; Hess, Kenneth; Bishop, Andrew J.

Purpose: There exists uncertainty in the prognosis of patients following spinal metastasis treatment. We sought to create a scoring system that stratifies patients based on overall survival. Methods and Materials: Patients enrolled in 2 prospective trials investigating stereotactic spine radiation surgery (SSRS) for spinal metastasis with ≥3-year follow-up were analyzed. A multivariate Cox regression model was used to create a survival model. Pretreatment variables included were race, sex, age, performance status, tumor histology, extent of vertebrae involvement, previous therapy at the SSRS site, disease burden, and timing of diagnosis and metastasis. Four survival groups were generated based on the model-derivedmore » survival score. Results: Median follow-up in the 206 patients included in this analysis was 70 months (range: 37-133 months). Seven variables were selected: female sex (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.7, P=.02), Karnofsky performance score (HR = 0.8 per 10-point increase above 60, P=.007), previous surgery at the SSRS site (HR = 0.7, P=.02), previous radiation at the SSRS site (HR = 1.8, P=.001), the SSRS site as the only site of metastatic disease (HR = 0.5, P=.01), number of organ systems involved outside of bone (HR = 1.4 per involved system, P<.001), and >5 year interval from initial diagnosis to detection of spine metastasis (HR = 0.5, P<.001). The median survival among all patients was 25.5 months and was significantly different among survival groups (in group 1 [excellent prognosis], median survival was not reached; group 2 reached 32.4 months; group 3 reached 22.2 months; and group 4 [poor prognosis] reached 9.1 months; P<.001). Pretreatment symptom burden was significantly higher in the patient group with poor survival than in the group with excellent survival (all metrics, P<.05). Conclusions: We developed the prognostic index for spinal metastases (PRISM) model, a new model that identified patient subgroups with poor and excellent prognoses.« less

Surrogate endpoints for overall survival in metastatic melanoma: a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

PubMed Central

Flaherty, Keith T; Hennig, Michael; Lee, Sandra J; Ascierto, Paolo A; Dummer, Reinhard; Eggermont, Alexander M M; Hauschild, Axel; Kefford, Richard; Kirkwood, John M; Long, Georgina V; Lorigan, Paul; Mackensen, Andreas; McArthur, Grant; O'Day, Steven; Patel, Poulam M; Robert, Caroline; Schadendorf, Dirk

2015-01-01

Summary Background Recent phase 3 trials have shown an overall survival benefit in metastatic melanoma. We aimed to assess whether progression-free survival (PFS) could be regarded as a reliable surrogate for overall survival through a meta-analysis of randomised trials. Methods We systematically reviewed randomised trials comparing treatment regimens in metastatic melanoma that included dacarbazine as the control arm, and which reported both PFS and overall survival with a standard hazard ratio (HR). We correlated HRs for overall survival and PFS, weighted by sample size or by precision of the HR estimate, assuming fixed and random effects. We did sensitivity analyses according to presence of crossover, trial size, and dacarbazine dose. Findings After screening 1649 reports and meeting abstracts published before Sept 8, 2013, we identified 12 eligible randomised trials that enrolled 4416 patients with metastatic melanoma. Irrespective of weighting strategy, we noted a strong correlation between the treatment effects for PFS and overall survival, which seemed independent of treatment type. Pearson correlation coefficients were 0.71 (95% CI 0.29–0.90) with a random-effects assumption, 0.85 (0.59–0.95) with a fixed-effects assumption, and 0.89 (0.68–0.97) with sample-size weighting. For nine trials without crossover, the correlation coefficient was 0.96 (0.81–0.99), which decreased to 0.93 (0.74–0.98) when two additional trials with less than 50% crossover were included. Inclusion of mature follow-up data after at least 50% crossover (in vemurafenib and dabrafenib phase 3 trials) weakened the PFS to overall survival correlation (0.55, 0.03–0.84). Inclusion of trials with no or little crossover with the random-effects assumption yielded a conservative statement of the PFS to overall survival correlation of 0.85 (0.51–0.96). Interpretation PFS can be regarded as a robust surrogate for overall survival in dacarbazine-controlled randomised trials of metastatic melanoma; we postulate that this association will hold as treatment standards evolve and are adopted as the control arm in future trials. Funding None. PMID:24485879

The impact of anaemia on treatment outcome in patients with squamous cell carcinoma of anal canal and anal margin

PubMed Central

Cesnjevar, Monika; Anzic, Mitja; Hadzic, Jasna But; Ermenc, Ajra Secerov; Anderluh, Franc; Velenik, Vaneja; Jeromen, Ana; Korosec, Peter

2016-01-01

Background Radiochemotherapy is the main treatment for patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the anal canal. Anaemia is reported to have adverse effect on survival in cancer patients. The aim of the study was to evaluate the influence of anaemia on radiochemotherapy treatment outcome in patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the anal canal. Patients and methods One hundred consecutive patients with histologically confirmed squamous cell carcinoma of the anal canal were treated radically with 3-dimensional conformal or intensity-modulated radiation therapy followed by brachytherapy or external beam radiotherapy boost and with concurrent mitomycin C and 5-fluorouracil. The influence on survival of pre-treatment, mean on-treatment and end-of-treatment haemoglobin (Hb) concentrations was studied. Results The 5-year locoregional control, disease free survival, disease specific survival and overall survival rates for all patients were 72%, 71%, 77% and 62%, respectively. In univariate analysis, patients with pre-treatment and end-of-treatment Hb > 120 g/L survived statistically significantly better compared to patients with Hb ≤ 120 g/L. Patients with mean on-treatment Hb > 120 g/L only had statistically significant better locoregional control and overall survival than patients with Hb ≤ 120 g/L. In multivariate analysis, independent prognostic factors were pre-treatment Hb (> 120 g/L vs. ≤ 120 g/L) for overall survival (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.419, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.190–0.927, p = 0.032) and stage (I & II vs. III) for disease specific (HR = 3.523, 95% CI = 1.375–9.026, p = 0.009) and overall survival (HR = 2.230, 95% CI = 1.167–4.264, p = 0.015). Conclusions The pre-treatment, mean on-treatment and end-of-treatment Hb concentration > 120 g/L carried better prognosis for patients for with squamous cell carcinoma of the anal canal treated with radiochemotherapy. The pre-treatment Hb > 120 g/L was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival of patients with anal canal cancer. PMID:27069457

What Is the Optimal Treatment of Large Brain Metastases? An Argument for a Multidisciplinary Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Choi, Clara Y.H.; Chang, Steven D.; Gibbs, Iris C.

2012-11-01

Purpose: Single-modality treatment of large brain metastases (>2 cm) with whole-brain irradiation, stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) alone, or surgery alone is not effective, with local failure (LF) rates of 50% to 90%. Our goal was to improve local control (LC) by using multimodality therapy of surgery and adjuvant SRS targeting the resection cavity. Patients and Methods: We retrospectively evaluated 97 patients with brain metastases >2 cm in diameter treated with surgery and cavity SRS. Local and distant brain failure (DF) rates were analyzed with competing risk analysis, with death as a competing risk. The overall survival rate was calculated by themore » Kaplain-Meier product-limit method. Results: The median imaging follow-up duration for all patients was 10 months (range, 1-80 months). The 12-month cumulative incidence rates of LF, with death as a competing risk, were 9.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.5%-16.1%), and the median time to LF was 6 months (range, 3-17 months). The 12-month cumulative incidence rate of DF, with death as a competing risk, was 53% (95% CI, 43%-63%). The median survival time for all patients was 15.6 months. The median survival times for recursive partitioning analysis classes 1, 2, and 3 were 33.8, 13.7, and 9.0 months, respectively (p = 0.022). On multivariate analysis, Karnofsky Performance Status ({>=}80 vs. <80; hazard ratio 0.54; 95% CI 0.31-0.94; p = 0.029) and maximum preoperative tumor diameter (hazard ratio 1.41; 95% CI 1.08-1.85; p = 0.013) were associated with survival. Five patients (5%) required intervention for Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events v4.02 grade 2 and 3 toxicity. Conclusion: Surgery and adjuvant resection cavity SRS yields excellent LC of large brain metastases. Compared with other multimodality treatment options, this approach allows patients to avoid or delay whole-brain irradiation without compromising LC.« less

Cisplatin and Etoposide Versus Carboplatin and Paclitaxel With Concurrent Radiotherapy for Stage III Non–Small-Cell Lung Cancer: An Analysis of Veterans Health Administration Data

PubMed Central

Santana-Davila, Rafael; Devisetty, Kiran; Szabo, Aniko; Sparapani, Rodney; Arce-Lara, Carlos; Gore, Elizabeth M.; Moran, Amy; Williams, Christina D.; Kelley, Michael J.; Whittle, Jeffrey

2015-01-01

Purpose The optimal chemotherapy regimen to use with radiotherapy in stage III non–small-cell lung cancer is unknown. Here, we compare the outcome of patents treated within the Veterans Health Administration with either etoposide-cisplatin (EP) or carboplatin-paclitaxel (CP). Methods We identified patients treated with EP and CP with concurrent radiotherapy from 2001 to 2010. Survival rates were compared using Cox proportional hazards regression models with adjustments for confounding provided by propensity score methods and an instrumental variables analysis. Comorbidities and treatment complications were identified through administrative data. Results A total of 1,842 patients were included; EP was used in 27% (n = 499). Treatment with EP was not associated with a survival advantage in a Cox proportional hazards model (hazard ratio [HR], 0.97; 95% CI, 0.85 to 1.10), a propensity score matched cohort (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.91 to 1.24), or a propensity score adjusted model (HR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.85 to 1.10). In an instrumental variables analysis, there was no survival advantage for patients treated in centers where EP was used more than 50% of the time as compared with centers where EP was used in less than 10% of the patients (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.90 to 1.26). Patients treated with EP, compared with patients treated with CP, had more hospitalizations (2.4 v 1.7 hospitalizations, respectively; P < .001), outpatient visits (17.6 v 12.6 visits, respectively; P < .001), infectious complications (47.3% v 39.4%, respectively; P = .0022), acute kidney disease/dehydration (30.5% v 21.2%, respectively; P < .001), and mucositis/esophagitis (18.6% v 14.4%, respectively; P = .0246). Conclusion After accounting for prognostic variables, patients treated with EP versus CP had similar overall survival, but EP was associated with increased morbidity. PMID:25422491

Who Benefits From Adjuvant Radiation Therapy for Gastric Cancer? A Meta-Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ohri, Nitin, E-mail: ohri.nitin@gmail.com; Garg, Madhur K.; Aparo, Santiago

2013-06-01

Purpose: Large randomized trials have demonstrated significant survival benefits with the use of adjuvant chemotherapy or chemoradiation therapy for gastric cancer. The importance of adjuvant radiation therapy (RT) remains unclear. We performed an up-to-date meta-analysis of randomized trials testing the use of RT for resectable gastric cancer. Methods and Materials: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials for randomized trials testing adjuvant (including neoadjuvant) RT for resectable gastric cancer. Hazard ratios describing the impact of adjuvant RT on overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were extracted directly from the original studies or calculated frommore » survival curves. Pooled estimates were obtained using the inverse variance method. Subgroup analyses were performed to determine whether the efficacy of RT varies with chemotherapy use, RT timing, geographic region, type of nodal dissection performed, or lymph node status. Results: Thirteen studies met all inclusion criteria and were used for this analysis. Adjuvant RT was associated with a significant improvement in both OS (HR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.70-0.86, P<.001) and DFS (HR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.63-0.80, P<.001). In the 5 studies that tested adjuvant chemoradiation therapy against adjuvant chemotherapy, similar effects were seen for OS (HR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.67-1.03, P=.087) and DFS (HR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.91-0.65, P=.002). Available data did not reveal any subgroup of patients that does not benefit from adjuvant RT. Conclusion: In randomized trials for resectable gastric cancer, adjuvant RT provides an approximately 20% improvement in both DFS and OS. Available data do not reveal a subgroup of patients that does not benefit from adjuvant RT. Further study is required to optimize the implementation of adjuvant RT for gastric cancer with regard to patient selection and integration with systemic therapy.« less

Cost-effectiveness Analysis in R Using a Multi-state Modeling Survival Analysis Framework: A Tutorial.

PubMed

Williams, Claire; Lewsey, James D; Briggs, Andrew H; Mackay, Daniel F

2017-05-01

This tutorial provides a step-by-step guide to performing cost-effectiveness analysis using a multi-state modeling approach. Alongside the tutorial, we provide easy-to-use functions in the statistics package R. We argue that this multi-state modeling approach using a package such as R has advantages over approaches where models are built in a spreadsheet package. In particular, using a syntax-based approach means there is a written record of what was done and the calculations are transparent. Reproducing the analysis is straightforward as the syntax just needs to be run again. The approach can be thought of as an alternative way to build a Markov decision-analytic model, which also has the option to use a state-arrival extended approach. In the state-arrival extended multi-state model, a covariate that represents patients' history is included, allowing the Markov property to be tested. We illustrate the building of multi-state survival models, making predictions from the models and assessing fits. We then proceed to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis, including deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Finally, we show how to create 2 common methods of visualizing the results-namely, cost-effectiveness planes and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. The analysis is implemented entirely within R. It is based on adaptions to functions in the existing R package mstate to accommodate parametric multi-state modeling that facilitates extrapolation of survival curves.