Science.gov

Sample records for survival competing risks

  1. Random survival forests for competing risks

    PubMed Central

    Ishwaran, Hemant; Gerds, Thomas A.; Kogalur, Udaya B.; Moore, Richard D.; Gange, Stephen J.; Lau, Bryan M.

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a new approach to competing risks using random forests. Our method is fully non-parametric and can be used for selecting event-specific variables and for estimating the cumulative incidence function. We show that the method is highly effective for both prediction and variable selection in high-dimensional problems and in settings such as HIV/AIDS that involve many competing risks. PMID:24728979

  2. Survival analysis in the presence of competing risks.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zhongheng

    2017-02-01

    Survival analysis in the presence of competing risks imposes additional challenges for clinical investigators in that hazard function (the rate) has no one-to-one link to the cumulative incidence function (CIF, the risk). CIF is of particular interest and can be estimated non-parametrically with the use cuminc() function. This function also allows for group comparison and visualization of estimated CIF. The effect of covariates on cause-specific hazard can be explored using conventional Cox proportional hazard model by treating competing events as censoring. However, the effect on hazard cannot be directly linked to the effect on CIF because there is no one-to-one correspondence between hazard and cumulative incidence. Fine-Gray model directly models the covariate effect on CIF and it reports subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR). However, SHR only provide information on the ordering of CIF curves at different levels of covariates, it has no practical interpretation as HR in the absence of competing risks. Fine-Gray model can be fit with crr() function shipped with the cmprsk package. Time-varying covariates are allowed in the crr() function, which is specified by cov2 and tf arguments. Predictions and visualization of CIF for subjects with given covariate values are allowed for crr object. Alternatively, competing risk models can be fit with riskRegression package by employing different link functions between covariates and outcomes. The assumption of proportionality can be checked by testing statistical significance of interaction terms involving failure time. Schoenfeld residuals provide another way to check model assumption.

  3. Survival analysis in the presence of competing risks

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Survival analysis in the presence of competing risks imposes additional challenges for clinical investigators in that hazard function (the rate) has no one-to-one link to the cumulative incidence function (CIF, the risk). CIF is of particular interest and can be estimated non-parametrically with the use cuminc() function. This function also allows for group comparison and visualization of estimated CIF. The effect of covariates on cause-specific hazard can be explored using conventional Cox proportional hazard model by treating competing events as censoring. However, the effect on hazard cannot be directly linked to the effect on CIF because there is no one-to-one correspondence between hazard and cumulative incidence. Fine-Gray model directly models the covariate effect on CIF and it reports subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR). However, SHR only provide information on the ordering of CIF curves at different levels of covariates, it has no practical interpretation as HR in the absence of competing risks. Fine-Gray model can be fit with crr() function shipped with the cmprsk package. Time-varying covariates are allowed in the crr() function, which is specified by cov2 and tf arguments. Predictions and visualization of CIF for subjects with given covariate values are allowed for crr object. Alternatively, competing risk models can be fit with riskRegression package by employing different link functions between covariates and outcomes. The assumption of proportionality can be checked by testing statistical significance of interaction terms involving failure time. Schoenfeld residuals provide another way to check model assumption. PMID:28251126

  4. Frailty-Based Competing Risks Model for Multivariate Survival Data

    PubMed Central

    Gorfine, Malka; Hsu, Li

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY In this work, we provide a new class of frailty-based competing risks models for clustered failure times data. This class is based on expanding the competing risks model of Prentice et al. (1978, Biometrics 34, 541–554) to incorporate frailty variates, with the use of cause-specific proportional hazards frailty models for all the causes. Parametric and nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators are proposed. The main advantages of the proposed class of models, in contrast to the existing models, are: (1) the inclusion of covariates; (2) the flexible structure of the dependency among the various types of failure times within a cluster; and (3) the unspecified within-subject dependency structure. The proposed estimation procedures produce the most efficient parametric and semiparametric estimators and are easy to implement. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods perform very well in practical situations. PMID:20707868

  5. A general joint model for longitudinal measurements and competing risks survival data with heterogeneous random effects

    PubMed Central

    Li, Gang; Elashoff, Robert M.; Pan, Jianxin

    2011-01-01

    This article studies a general joint model for longitudinal measurements and competing risks survival data. The model consists of a linear mixed effects sub-model for the longitudinal outcome, a proportional cause-specific hazards frailty sub-model for the competing risks survival data, and a regression sub-model for the variance–covariance matrix of the multivariate latent random effects based on a modified Cholesky decomposition. The model provides a useful approach to adjust for non-ignorable missing data due to dropout for the longitudinal outcome, enables analysis of the survival outcome with informative censoring and intermittently measured time-dependent covariates, as well as joint analysis of the longitudinal and survival outcomes. Unlike previously studied joint models, our model allows for heterogeneous random covariance matrices. It also offers a framework to assess the homogeneous covariance assumption of existing joint models. A Bayesian MCMC procedure is developed for parameter estimation and inference. Its performances and frequentist properties are investigated using simulations. A real data example is used to illustrate the usefulness of the approach. PMID:20549344

  6. Modelling childhood caries using parametric competing risks survival analysis methods for clustered data.

    PubMed

    Stephenson, J; Chadwick, B L; Playle, R A; Treasure, E T

    2010-01-01

    Caries in primary teeth is an ongoing issue in children's dental health. Its quantification is affected by clustering of data within children and the concurrent risk of exfoliation of primary teeth. This analysis of caries data of 103,776 primary molar tooth surfaces from a cohort study of 2,654 British children aged 4-5 years at baseline applied multilevel competing risks survival analysis methodology to identify factors significantly associated with caries occurrence in primary tooth surfaces in the presence of the concurrent risk of exfoliation, and assessed the effect of exfoliation on caries development. Multivariate multilevel parametric survival models were applied at surface level to the analysis of the sound-carious and sound-exfoliation transitions to which primary tooth surfaces are subject. Socio-economic class, fluoridation status and surface type were found to be the strongest predictors of primary caries, with the highest rates of occurrence and lowest median survival times associated with occlusal surfaces of children from poor socio-economic class living in non-fluoridated areas. The concurrent risk of exfoliation was shown to reduce the distinction in survival experience between different types of surfaces, and between surfaces of teeth from children of different socio-economic class or fluoridation status. Clustering of data had little effect on inferences of parameter significance.

  7. A computer program for the generalized chi-square analysis of competing risks grouped survival data (CRISCAT).

    PubMed

    Stanish, W M; Chi, G Y; Johnson, W D; Koch, G G; Landis, J R; Liu-Chi, S

    1978-09-01

    CRISCAT is a computer program for the analysis of grouped survival data with competing risks via weighted least squares methods. Competing risks adjustments are obtained from general matrix operations using many of the strategies employed in a previously developed program (GENCAT) for multivariate categorical data. CRISCAT computes survival rates at several time points for multiple causes of failure, where each rate is adjusted for other causes in the sense that failure due to thes other causes has been eliminated as a risk. The program can generate functions of the adjusted survival rates, to which asymptotic regression models may be fit. CRISCAT yields test statistics for hypotheses involving either these functions or estimated model parameters. Thus, this computational algorithm links competing risks theory to linear models methods for contingency table analysis and provides a unified approach to estimation and hypothesis testing of functions involving competing risks adjusted rates.

  8. Evaluation of prognostic factors effect on survival time in patients with colorectal cancer, based on Weibull Competing-Risks Model

    PubMed Central

    Moamer, Soraya; Baghestani, Ahmadreza; Pourhoseingholi, Mohamad Amin; Hajizadeh, Nastaran; Ahmadi, Farzaneh; Norouzinia, Mohsen

    2017-01-01

    Aim: The aim of this study was to assess the association between survival of patients with colorectal cancer and prognostic factors in a competing risk parametric model using Weibull distribution. Background: The prognosis of colorectal cancer is relatively good in terms of survival time. In many prognostic studies, patients may be exposed to several types of competing events. These different causes of death are called competing risks. Methods: Data was recorded from 372 patients with colorectal cancer who registered in the Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences (Tehran, Iran) from 2004 to 2015 in a retrospective study. Analysis was performed using competing risks model and Weibull distribution. Software used for data analysis was R, and significance level was regarded as 0.05. Results: The result indicated that, at the end of follow-up, 111 (29.8%) deaths were from colorectal cancer and 14 (3.8%) deaths were due to other diseases. The average body mass index (BMI) was 24.61(SD 3.98). The mean survival time for a patient in 372 was 62.05(SD 48.78) month with median equals to 48 months. According to competing-risks method, only stageIII (HR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.246-2.315 ), stageIV( HR, 4.51; 95% CI,2.91-6.99 ) and BMI( HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.96-0.975) have a significant effect on patient’s survival time. Conclusion: This study indicated pathologic stage (III,IV) and BMI as the prognosis, using a Weibull model with competing risks analysis, while other models without the competing events lead to significant predictors which may be due to over-estimation.

  9. Meta-analysis for aggregated survival data with competing risks: a parametric approach using cumulative incidence functions.

    PubMed

    Bonofiglio, Federico; Beyersmann, Jan; Schumacher, Martin; Koller, Michael; Schwarzer, Guido

    2016-09-01

    Meta-analysis of a survival endpoint is typically based on the pooling of hazard ratios (HRs). If competing risks occur, the HRs may lose translation into changes of survival probability. The cumulative incidence functions (CIFs), the expected proportion of cause-specific events over time, re-connect the cause-specific hazards (CSHs) to the probability of each event type. We use CIF ratios to measure treatment effect on each event type. To retrieve information on aggregated, typically poorly reported, competing risks data, we assume constant CSHs. Next, we develop methods to pool CIF ratios across studies. The procedure computes pooled HRs alongside and checks the influence of follow-up time on the analysis. We apply the method to a medical example, showing that follow-up duration is relevant both for pooled cause-specific HRs and CIF ratios. Moreover, if all-cause hazard and follow-up time are large enough, CIF ratios may reveal additional information about the effect of treatment on the cumulative probability of each event type. Finally, to improve the usefulness of such analysis, better reporting of competing risks data is needed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Prediagnostic serum glucose and lipids in relation to survival in breast cancer patients: a competing risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Wulaningsih, Wahyu; Vahdaninia, Mariam; Rowley, Mark; Holmberg, Lars; Garmo, Hans; Malmstrom, Håkan; Lambe, Mats; Hammar, Niklas; Walldius, Göran; Jungner, Ingmar; Coolen, Anthonius C; Van Hemelrijck, Mieke

    2015-11-17

    Abnormal glucose and lipids levels may impact survival after breast cancer (BC) diagnosis, but their association to other causes of mortality such as cardiovascular (CV) disease may result in a competing risk problem. We assessed serum glucose, triglycerides (TG) and total cholesterol (TC) measured prospectively 3 months to 3 years before diagnosis in 1798 Swedish women diagnosed with any type of BC between 1985 and 1999. In addition to using Cox regression, we employed latent class proportional hazards models to capture any heterogeneity of associations between these markers and BC death. The latter method was extended to include the primary outcome (BC death) and competing outcomes (CV death and death from other causes), allowing latent class-specific hazard estimation for cause-specific deaths. A lack of association between prediagnostic glucose, TG or TC with BC death was observed with Cox regression. With latent class proportional hazards model, two latent classes (Class I and II) were suggested. Class I, comprising the majority (81.5 %) of BC patients, had an increased risk of BC death following higher TG levels (HR: 1.87, 95 % CI: 1.01-3.45 for every log TG increase). Lower overall survival was observed in Class II, but no association for BC death was found. On the other hand, TC positively corresponded to CV death in Class II, and similarly, glucose to death from other causes. Addressing cohort heterogeneity in relation to BC survival is important in understanding the relationship between metabolic markers and cause-specific death in presence of competing outcomes.

  11. Proximal femoral replacement in the management of acute periprosthetic fractures of the hip: a competing risks survival analysis

    PubMed Central

    Colman, Matthew; Choi, Lisa; Chen, Antonia; Crossett, Lawrence; Tarkin, Ivan; McGough, Richard

    2014-01-01

    To examine the mortality and implant survivorship of proximal femoral replacement (PFR), revision total hip arthroplasty (REV) and open reduction internal fixation (ORIF) in the treatment of acute periprosthetic fractures of the proximal femur, we retrospectively reviewed 97 consecutive acute periprosthetic proximal femoral fractures from 2000–2010. Three groups were defined: PFR (n=21), REV (n=19), and ORIF (n=57). Outcome measures were all-cause mortality, implant failure, and reoperation. Competing Risks survival analysis of overall mortality during the mean 35-month follow-up showed no statistical difference between the three groups (p=0.65; 12 and 60 month mortality for PFR: 37%, 45%; REV: 16%, 46%; ORIF: 14%, 100%). Implant survival was worse for the PFR group (p=0.03, 12 and 60-month implant failure rate for PFR: 5%, 39%; REV: 7%, 7%; ORIF 2%, 2%). We conclude that PFR as compared with REV or ORIF may have worse medium-term implant survival, primarily due to instability and dislocation. PMID:23856062

  12. Proximal femoral replacement in the management of acute periprosthetic fractures of the hip: a competing risks survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Colman, Matthew; Choi, Lisa; Chen, Antonia; Crossett, Lawrence; Tarkin, Ivan; McGough, Richard

    2014-02-01

    To examine the mortality and implant survivorship of proximal femoral replacement (PFR), revision total hip arthroplasty (REV) and open reduction internal fixation (ORIF) in the treatment of acute periprosthetic fractures of the proximal femur, we retrospectively reviewed 97 consecutive acute periprosthetic proximal femoral fractures from 2000 to 2010. Three groups were defined: PFR (n=21), REV (n=19), and ORIF (n=57). Outcome measures were all-cause mortality, implant failure, and reoperation. Competing Risks survival analysis of overall mortality during the mean 35-month follow-up showed no statistical difference between the three groups (P=0.65; 12 and 60 month mortality for PFR: 37%, 45%; REV: 16%, 46%; ORIF: 14%, 100%). Implant survival was worse for the PFR group (P=0.03, 12 and 60-month implant failure rate for PFR: 5%, 39%; REV: 7%, 7%; ORIF 2%, 2%). We conclude that PFR as compared with REV or ORIF may have worse medium-term implant survival, primarily due to instability and dislocation.

  13. The application of cure models in the presence of competing risks: a tool for improved risk communication in population-based cancer patient survival.

    PubMed

    Eloranta, Sandra; Lambert, Paul C; Andersson, Therese M-L; Björkholm, Magnus; Dickman, Paul W

    2014-09-01

    Quantifying cancer patient survival from the perspective of cure is clinically relevant. However, most cure models estimate cure assuming no competing causes of death. We use a relative survival framework to demonstrate how flexible parametric cure models can be used in combination with competing-risks theory to incorporate noncancer deaths. Under a model that incorporates statistical cure, we present the probabilities that cancer patients (1) have died from their cancer, (2) have died from other causes, (3) will eventually die from their cancer, or (4) will eventually die from other causes, all as a function of time since diagnosis. We further demonstrate how conditional probabilities can be used to update the prognosis among survivors (eg, at 1 or 5 years after diagnosis) by summarizing the proportion of patients who will not die from their cancer. The proposed method is applied to Swedish population-based data for persons diagnosed with melanoma, colon cancer, or acute myeloid leukemia between 1973 and 2007.

  14. A competing risk survival analysis model to assess the efficacy of filling carious primary teeth.

    PubMed

    Stephenson, J; Chadwick, B L; Playle, R A; Treasure, E T

    2010-01-01

    In recent years a strategy of selective, symptom-based intervention of carious primary teeth has been developed amongst some British general dental practitioners. Practice-based studies appear to provide evidence that policies of restoration of symptomless carious primary teeth do not confer any significant benefits above those associated with non-restorative care. However, results from these studies contrast with those of many clinical trials and prospective studies of primary molar restorations. In the current investigation, cohort study data from 5,168 carious primary molar teeth from 2,654 British children aged 4-5 years at baseline, augmented with Dental Practice Board treatment data, was utilised to assess the effect of restorative treatment on the likelihood of carious teeth subsequently progressing to either exfoliation or extraction. The effect of demographic and tooth level covariates on the fate of these teeth was also assessed. Multivariate multilevel parametric survival models were applied to the analysis of the carious-exfoliation and carious-extraction transitions to which the teeth were subject, assuming an underlying data hierarchy with teeth nested within individuals. Time of occurrence of caries affected survival experience, with teeth in which caries occurred later in life being associated with higher survival rates to extraction. Amongst filled teeth, later fillings were also associated with higher survival rates to extraction. Demographic and tooth level variables had a limited effect on survival experience. Treatment was found to be significantly associated with survival with respect to extraction, with survival rates of over 80% at 14 years, double those of untreated teeth.

  15. Types of oral contraceptives and breast cancer survival among women enrolled in Medicaid: A competing-risk model.

    PubMed

    Samson, Marsha E; Adams, Swann Arp; Mulatya, Caroline M; Zhang, Jiajia; Bennett, Charles L; Hebert, James; Steck, Susan E

    2017-01-01

    Oral contraceptive pills have been implicated in the pathophysiology of breast cancer. Although many studies have examined the relationship between combined oral contraceptives (COCs) and breast cancer, there is a paucity of literature that discusses progestin-only oral contraceptives (POCs) and breast cancer. The purpose of this investigation is to examine potential associations between different types of oral contraceptives and breast cancer mortality in the South Carolina Medicaid population among different racial/ethnic groups. Subjects included 4816 women diagnosed with breast cancer between 2000 and 2013. Kaplan-Meier curves were calculated to determine time-to-mortality rates among users of oral contraceptives. Competing-risks models and Cox multivariate survival models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of breast cancer and other-cause mortality, as well as all-cause mortality. POCs were associated with a significantly decreased risk of breast cancer mortality (HR: 0.07; 95% CI: 0.01, 0.52) and a non-significant increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 1.04; 95% CI: 0.52, 2.07). COCs increased the risk of breast cancer mortality (HR: 1.61; 95% CI: 1.14, 2.28) and all-cause mortality (HR: 1.83; 95% CI: 1.30, 2.57). Use of POCs may be associated with a decreased risk of breast cancer mortality. Due to the small sample size of POC users in the current study, additional research is needed to confirm these findings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Different survival analysis methods for measuring long-term outcomes of Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australian cancer patients in the presence and absence of competing risks.

    PubMed

    He, Vincent Y F; Condon, John R; Baade, Peter D; Zhang, Xiaohua; Zhao, Yuejen

    2017-01-17

    Net survival is the most common measure of cancer prognosis and has been used to study differentials in cancer survival between ethnic or racial population subgroups. However, net survival ignores competing risks of deaths and so provides incomplete prognostic information for cancer patients, and when comparing survival between populations with different all-cause mortality. Another prognosis measure, "crude probability of death", which takes competing risk of death into account, overcomes this limitation. Similar to net survival, it can be calculated using either life tables (using Cronin-Feuer method) or cause of death data (using Fine-Gray method). The aim of this study is two-fold: (1) to compare the multivariable results produced by different survival analysis methods; and (2) to compare the Cronin-Feuer with the Fine-Gray methods, in estimating the cancer and non-cancer death probability of both Indigenous and non-Indigenous cancer patients and the Indigenous cancer disparities. Cancer survival was investigated for 9,595 people (18.5% Indigenous) diagnosed with cancer in the Northern Territory of Australia between 1991 and 2009. The Cox proportional hazard model along with Poisson and Fine-Gray regression were used in the multivariable analysis. The crude probabilities of cancer and non-cancer methods were estimated in two ways: first, using cause of death data with the Fine-Gray method, and second, using life tables with the Cronin-Feuer method. Multivariable regression using the relative survival, cause-specific survival, and competing risk analysis produced similar results. In the presence of competing risks, the Cronin-Feuer method produced similar results to Fine-Gray in the estimation of cancer death probability (higher Indigenous cancer death probabilities for all cancers) and non-cancer death probabilities (higher Indigenous non-cancer death probabilities for all cancers except lung cancer and head and neck cancers). Cronin-Feuer estimated much lower

  17. Recursive Partitioning Method on Competing Risk Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Wei; Che, Jiahua; Kong, Qin

    2016-01-01

    In some cancer clinical studies, researchers have interests to explore the risk factors associated with competing risk outcomes such as recurrence-free survival. We develop a novel recursive partitioning framework on competing risk data for both prognostic and predictive model constructions. We define specific splitting rules, pruning algorithm, and final tree selection algorithm for the competing risk tree models. This methodology is quite flexible that it can corporate both semiparametric method using Cox proportional hazards model and parametric competing risk model. Both prognostic and predictive tree models are developed to adjust for potential confounding factors. Extensive simulations show that our methods have well-controlled type I error and robust power performance. Finally, we apply both Cox proportional hazards model and flexible parametric model for prognostic tree development on a retrospective clinical study on oropharyngeal cancer patients. PMID:27486300

  18. Multilevel joint competing risk models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karunarathna, G. H. S.; Sooriyarachchi, M. R.

    2017-09-01

    Joint modeling approaches are often encountered for different outcomes of competing risk time to event and count in many biomedical and epidemiology studies in the presence of cluster effect. Hospital length of stay (LOS) has been the widely used outcome measure in hospital utilization due to the benchmark measurement for measuring multiple terminations such as discharge, transferred, dead and patients who have not completed the event of interest at the follow up period (censored) during hospitalizations. Competing risk models provide a method of addressing such multiple destinations since classical time to event models yield biased results when there are multiple events. In this study, the concept of joint modeling has been applied to the dengue epidemiology in Sri Lanka, 2006-2008 to assess the relationship between different outcomes of LOS and platelet count of dengue patients with the district cluster effect. Two key approaches have been applied to build up the joint scenario. In the first approach, modeling each competing risk separately using the binary logistic model, treating all other events as censored under the multilevel discrete time to event model, while the platelet counts are assumed to follow a lognormal regression model. The second approach is based on the endogeneity effect in the multilevel competing risks and count model. Model parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood based on the Laplace approximation. Moreover, the study reveals that joint modeling approach yield more precise results compared to fitting two separate univariate models, in terms of AIC (Akaike Information Criterion).

  19. Competing risk bias in Kaplan-Meier risk estimates can be corrected.

    PubMed

    van Walraven, Carl; Hawken, Steven

    2016-02-01

    Kaplan-Meier (KM) analyses are frequently used to measure outcome risk over time. These analyses overestimate risk whenever competing events are present. Many published KM analyses are susceptible to such competing risk bias. This study derived and validated a model that predicted true outcome risk based on the biased KM risk. We simulated survival data sets having a broad range of 1-year true outcome and competing event risk. Unbiased true outcome risk estimates were calculated using the cumulative incidence function (CIF). Multiple linear regression was used to determine the independent association of CIF-based true outcome risk with the biased KM risk and the proportion of all outcomes that were competing events. The final model found that both the biased KM-based risk and the proportion of all outcomes that were competing events were strongly associated with CIF-based risk. In validation populations that used a variety of distinct survival hazard functions, the model accurately predicted the CIF (R(2) = 1). True outcome risk can be accurately predicted from KM estimates susceptible to competing risk bias. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. A missing data approach to semi-competing risks problems.

    PubMed

    Dignam, James J; Wieand, Kelly; Rathouz, Paul J

    2007-02-20

    For event time data involving multiple mutually exclusive competing causes of failure, classic competing risks results show that marginal survival distributions are not identifiable. In a related instance, one or more failure modes may be observed provided that the failure events occur in a specific order. In such situations, sometimes referred to as semi-competing risks problems, the observations may under realistic assumptions lend information about parameters of interest that would be nonidentifiable in the strict competing risks case. Here, we present an approach that makes use of partially observable multiple modes of failures to obtain an estimate of the marginal distribution of one event type that may occur prior to the occurrence of another event type or be precluded by it. We apply the proposed method to the problem of estimating the distribution of time to tumour recurrence at specific sites among breast cancer patients participating in randomized clinical trials.

  1. Competing mortality and fracture risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Leslie, W D; Lix, L M; Wu, X

    2013-02-01

    Failure to account for competing mortality gave higher estimates of 10-year fracture probability than if appropriate adjustment is made for competing mortality, particularly among subgroups with higher mortality. A modified Kaplan-Meier method is easy to implement and provides an alternative approach to existing methods for competing mortality risk adjustment. A unique feature of FRAX(®) is that 10-year fracture probability accounts for mortality as a competing risk. We compared the effect of competing mortality adjustment on nonparametric and parametric methods of fracture probability estimation. The Manitoba Bone Mineral Density (BMD) database was used to identify men and women age ≥50 years with FRAX probabilities calculated using femoral neck BMD (N = 39,063). Fractures were assessed from administrative data (N = 2,543 with a major osteoporotic fracture, N = 549 with a hip fracture during mean 5.3 years follow-up). The following subgroups with higher mortality were identified: men, age >80 years, high fracture probability, and presence of diabetes. Failure to account for competing mortality in these subgroups overestimated fracture probability by 16-56 % with the standard nonparametric (Kaplan-Meier) method and 15-29 % with the standard parametric (Cox) model. When the outcome was hip fractures, failure to account for competing mortality overestimated hip fracture probability by 18-36 % and 17-35 %, respectively. A simple modified Kaplan-Meier method showed very close agreement with methods that adjusted for competing mortality (within 2 %). Failure to account for competing mortality risk gives considerably higher estimates of 10-year fracture probability than if adjustment is made for this competing risk.

  2. Familial Risk and Child Competence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sameroff, Arnold J.; Seifer, Ronald

    1983-01-01

    Examines components of familial risk in the context of a four-year longitudinal study of children with mentally ill mothers. Risk factors examined were parental mental health, social status, parental perspectives, and family stress. Interactions among risk factors were found to be complex and different for cognitive and social-emotional…

  3. Familial Risk and Child Competence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sameroff, Arnold J.; Seifer, Ronald

    1983-01-01

    Examines components of familial risk in the context of a four-year longitudinal study of children with mentally ill mothers. Risk factors examined were parental mental health, social status, parental perspectives, and family stress. Interactions among risk factors were found to be complex and different for cognitive and social-emotional…

  4. Accounting for competing risks in randomized controlled trials: a review and recommendations for improvement

    PubMed Central

    Fine, Jason P.

    2017-01-01

    In studies with survival or time‐to‐event outcomes, a competing risk is an event whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the primary event of interest. Specialized statistical methods must be used to analyze survival data in the presence of competing risks. We conducted a review of randomized controlled trials with survival outcomes that were published in high‐impact general medical journals. Of 40 studies that we identified, 31 (77.5%) were potentially susceptible to competing risks. However, in the majority of these studies, the potential presence of competing risks was not accounted for in the statistical analyses that were described. Of the 31 studies potentially susceptible to competing risks, 24 (77.4%) reported the results of a Kaplan–Meier survival analysis, while only five (16.1%) reported using cumulative incidence functions to estimate the incidence of the outcome over time in the presence of competing risks. The former approach will tend to result in an overestimate of the incidence of the outcome over time, while the latter approach will result in unbiased estimation of the incidence of the primary outcome over time. We provide recommendations on the analysis and reporting of randomized controlled trials with survival outcomes in the presence of competing risks. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:28102550

  5. Calibrated predictions for multivariate competing risks models.

    PubMed

    Gorfine, Malka; Hsu, Li; Zucker, David M; Parmigiani, Giovanni

    2014-04-01

    Prediction models for time-to-event data play a prominent role in assessing the individual risk of a disease, such as cancer. Accurate disease prediction models provide an efficient tool for identifying individuals at high risk, and provide the groundwork for estimating the population burden and cost of disease and for developing patient care guidelines. We focus on risk prediction of a disease in which family history is an important risk factor that reflects inherited genetic susceptibility, shared environment, and common behavior patterns. In this work family history is accommodated using frailty models, with the main novel feature being allowing for competing risks, such as other diseases or mortality. We show through a simulation study that naively treating competing risks as independent right censoring events results in non-calibrated predictions, with the expected number of events overestimated. Discrimination performance is not affected by ignoring competing risks. Our proposed prediction methodologies correctly account for competing events, are very well calibrated, and easy to implement.

  6. Smoking, death, and Alzheimer disease: a case of competing risks.

    PubMed

    Chang, Chung-Chou H; Zhao, Yongyun; Lee, Ching-Wen; Ganguli, Mary

    2012-01-01

    If smoking is a risk factor for Alzheimer disease (AD) but a smoker dies of another cause before developing or manifesting AD, smoking-related mortality may mask the relationship between smoking and AD. This phenomenon, referred to as competing risk, complicates efforts to model the effect of smoking on AD. Typical survival regression models assume that censorship from analysis is unrelated to an individual's probability for developing AD (ie, censoring is noninformative). However, if individuals who die before developing AD are younger than those who survive long enough to develop AD, and if they include a higher percentage of smokers than nonsmokers, the incidence of AD will appear to be higher in older individuals and in nonsmokers. Further, age-specific mortality rates are higher in smokers because they die earlier than nonsmokers. Therefore, if we fail to take into account the competing risk of death when we estimate the effect of smoking on AD, we bias the results and are in fact only comparing the incidence of AD in nonsmokers with that in the healthiest smokers. In this study, we demonstrate that the effect of smoking on AD differs in models that are and are not adjusted for competing risks.

  7. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    PubMed Central

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  8. Penalized variable selection in competing risks regression.

    PubMed

    Fu, Zhixuan; Parikh, Chirag R; Zhou, Bingqing

    2017-07-01

    Penalized variable selection methods have been extensively studied for standard time-to-event data. Such methods cannot be directly applied when subjects are at risk of multiple mutually exclusive events, known as competing risks. The proportional subdistribution hazard (PSH) model proposed by Fine and Gray (J Am Stat Assoc 94:496-509, 1999) has become a popular semi-parametric model for time-to-event data with competing risks. It allows for direct assessment of covariate effects on the cumulative incidence function. In this paper, we propose a general penalized variable selection strategy that simultaneously handles variable selection and parameter estimation in the PSH model. We rigorously establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed penalized estimators and modify the coordinate descent algorithm for implementation. Simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate the good performance of the proposed method. Data from deceased donor kidney transplants from the United Network of Organ Sharing illustrate the utility of the proposed method.

  9. Competing Risks Regression for Stratified Data

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Bingqing; Latouche, Aurelien; Rocha, Vanderson; Fine, Jason

    2012-01-01

    Summary For competing risks data, the Fine–Gray proportional hazards model for subdistribution has gained popularity for its convenience in directly assessing the effect of covariates on the cumulative incidence function. However, in many important applications, proportional hazards may not be satisfied, including multicenter clinical trials, where the baseline subdistribution hazards may not be common due to varying patient populations. In this article, we consider a stratified competing risks regression, to allow the baseline hazard to vary across levels of the stratification covariate. According to the relative size of the number of strata and strata sizes, two stratification regimes are considered. Using partial likelihood and weighting techniques, we obtain consistent estimators of regression parameters. The corresponding asymptotic properties and resulting inferences are provided for the two regimes separately. Data from a breast cancer clinical trial and from a bone marrow transplantation registry illustrate the potential utility of the stratified Fine–Gray model. PMID:21155744

  10. Nonparametric Analysis of Bivariate Gap Time with Competing Risks

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Chiung-Yu; Wang, Chenguang; Wang, Mei-Cheng

    2016-01-01

    Summary This article considers nonparametric methods for studying recurrent disease and death with competing risks. We first point out that comparisons based on the well-known cumulative incidence function can be confounded by different prevalence rates of the competing events, and that comparisons of the conditional distribution of the survival time given the failure event type are more relevant for investigating the prognosis of different patterns of recurrence disease. We then propose nonparametric estimators for the conditional cumulative incidence function as well as the conditional bivariate cumulative incidence function for the bivariate gap times, that is, the time to disease recurrence and the residual lifetime after recurrence. To quantify the association between the two gap times in the competing risks setting, a modified Kendall’s tau statistic is proposed. The proposed estimators for the conditional bivariate cumulative incidence distribution and the association measure account for the induced dependent censoring for the second gap time. Uniform consistency and weak convergence of the proposed estimators are established. Hypothesis testing procedures for two-sample comparisons are discussed. Numerical simulation studies with practical sample sizes are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed nonparametric estimators and tests. An application to data from a pancreatic cancer study is presented to illustrate the methods developed in this article. PMID:26990686

  11. Competing risks to breast cancer mortality.

    PubMed

    Rosenberg, Marjorie A

    2006-01-01

    Simulation models analyzing the impact of treatment interventions and screening on the level of breast cancer mortality require an input of mortality from causes other than breast cancer, or competing risks. This chapter presents an actuarial method of creating cohort life tables using published data that removes breast cancer as a cause of death. Mortality from causes other than breast cancer as a percentage of all-cause mortality is smallest for women in their forties and fifties, as small as 85% of the all-cause rate, although the level and percentage of the impact varies by birth cohort. This method produces life tables by birth cohort and by age that are easily included as a common input by the various CISNET modeling groups to predict mortality from other causes. Attention to removing breast cancer mortality from all-cause mortality is worthwhile, because breast cancer mortality can be as high as 15% at some ages.

  12. Competing events in patients with malignant disease who are at risk for recurrent venous thromboembolism.

    PubMed

    Parpia, S; Julian, J A; Thabane, L; Lee, A Y Y; Rickles, F R; Levine, M N

    2011-11-01

    Patients with malignant disease enrolled in trials of thrombotic disorders may experience competing events such as death. The occurrence of a competing event may prevent the thrombotic event from being observed. Standard survival analysis techniques ignore competing risks, resulting in possible bias and distorted inferences. To assess the impact of competing events on the results of a previously reported trial comparing low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) with oral anticoagulant (OAC) therapy for the prevention of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) in patients with advanced cancer, we compare the results from standard survival analysis with those from competing risk techniques which are based on the cumulative incidence function (CIF) and Gray's test. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimates the risk of recurrent VTE (17.2% in the OAC group and 8.7% in the LMWH group). Risk of recurrence using the CIF is 12.0% and 6.0% in the OAC and LMWH groups, respectively. Both the log-rank test (p=0.002) and Gray's test (p=0.006) suggest evidence in favor of LMWH. The overestimation of risk is 30% in each treatment group, resulting in a similar relative treatment effect; using the Cox model the hazard ratio (HR) is 0.48 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.30 to 0.78) and HR=0.47 (95% CI, 0.29 to 0.74) using the CIF model. Failing to account for competing risks may lead to incorrect interpretations of the probability of recurrent VTE. However, when the distribution of competing risks is similar within each treatment group, standard and competing risk methods yield comparable relative treatment effects.

  13. Cumulative Incidence Association Models for Bivariate Competing Risks Data.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Yu; Fine, Jason P

    2012-03-01

    Association models, like frailty and copula models, are frequently used to analyze clustered survival data and evaluate within-cluster associations. The assumption of noninformative censoring is commonly applied to these models, though it may not be true in many situations. In this paper, we consider bivariate competing risk data and focus on association models specified for the bivariate cumulative incidence function (CIF), a nonparametrically identifiable quantity. Copula models are proposed which relate the bivariate CIF to its corresponding univariate CIFs, similarly to independently right censored data, and accommodate frailty models for the bivariate CIF. Two estimating equations are developed to estimate the association parameter, permitting the univariate CIFs to be estimated either parametrically or nonparametrically. Goodness-of-fit tests are presented for formally evaluating the parametric models. Both estimators perform well with moderate sample sizes in simulation studies. The practical use of the methodology is illustrated in an analysis of dementia associations.

  14. Risk-adjusted monitoring of survival times

    SciTech Connect

    Sego, Landon H.; Reynolds, Marion R.; Woodall, William H.

    2009-02-26

    We consider the monitoring of clinical outcomes, where each patient has a di®erent risk of death prior to undergoing a health care procedure.We propose a risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM chart (RAST CUSUM) for monitoring clinical outcomes where the primary endpoint is a continuous, time-to-event variable that may be right censored. Risk adjustment is accomplished using accelerated failure time regression models. We compare the average run length performance of the RAST CUSUM chart to the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart, using data from cardiac surgeries to motivate the details of the comparison. The comparisons show that the RAST CUSUM chart is more efficient at detecting a sudden decrease in the odds of death than the risk-adjusted Bernoulli CUSUM chart, especially when the fraction of censored observations is not too high. We also discuss the implementation of a prospective monitoring scheme using the RAST CUSUM chart.

  15. Survival in Transition or Implementing Information Science Core Competencies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nichols, Margaret T.; And Others

    1996-01-01

    Identifies and examines four information science core competencies of the Du Pont Corporation's information science services: ability to conceptualize information; knowledge of internal and external information resources; understanding of information resource management; and ability to synthesize and tailor information. Describes the…

  16. Risk-stratified imputation in survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Kennedy, Richard E; Adragni, Kofi P; Tiwari, Hemant K; Voeks, Jenifer H; Brott, Thomas G; Howard, George

    2013-08-01

    Censoring that is dependent on covariates associated with survival can arise in randomized trials due to changes in recruitment and eligibility criteria to minimize withdrawals, potentially leading to biased treatment effect estimates. Imputation approaches have been proposed to address censoring in survival analysis; while these approaches may provide unbiased estimates of treatment effects, imputation of a large number of outcomes may over- or underestimate the associated variance based on the imputation pool selected. We propose an improved method, risk-stratified imputation, as an alternative to address withdrawal related to the risk of events in the context of time-to-event analyses. Our algorithm performs imputation from a pool of replacement subjects with similar values of both treatment and covariate(s) of interest, that is, from a risk-stratified sample. This stratification prior to imputation addresses the requirement of time-to-event analysis that censored observations are representative of all other observations in the risk group with similar exposure variables. We compared our risk-stratified imputation to case deletion and bootstrap imputation in a simulated dataset in which the covariate of interest (study withdrawal) was related to treatment. A motivating example from a recent clinical trial is also presented to demonstrate the utility of our method. In our simulations, risk-stratified imputation gives estimates of treatment effect comparable to bootstrap and auxiliary variable imputation while avoiding inaccuracies of the latter two in estimating the associated variance. Similar results were obtained in analysis of clinical trial data. Risk-stratified imputation has little advantage over other imputation methods when covariates of interest are not related to treatment. Risk-stratified imputation is intended for categorical covariates and may be sensitive to the width of the matching window if continuous covariates are used. The use of the risk

  17. Parametric Estimation in a Recurrent Competing Risks Model.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Laura L; Peña, Edsel A

    2013-01-01

    A resource-efficient approach to making inferences about the distributional properties of the failure times in a competing risks setting is presented. Efficiency is gained by observing recurrences of the competing risks over a random monitoring period. The resulting model is called the recurrent competing risks model (RCRM) and is coupled with two repair strategies whenever the system fails. Maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the marginal distribution functions associated with each of the competing risks and also of the system lifetime distribution function are presented. Estimators are derived under perfect and partial repair strategies. Consistency and asymptotic properties of the estimators are obtained. The estimation methods are applied to a data set of failures for cars under warranty. Simulation studies are used to ascertain the small sample properties and the efficiency gains of the resulting estimators.

  18. The Functional Competency of Elderly at Risk.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stanley, Barbara; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Investigated functional competency to make informed decisions by elderly depressed and cognitively impaired psychiatric patients. Although depressed elderly patients did not appear to experience problems in informed consent process, cognitively impaired patients had difficulty understanding important aspects of consent information. Suggests that…

  19. Competing risk bias was common in Kaplan-Meier risk estimates published in prominent medical journals.

    PubMed

    van Walraven, Carl; McAlister, Finlay A

    2016-01-01

    Risk estimates from Kaplan-Meier curves are well known to medical researchers, reviewers, and editors. In this study, we determined the proportion of Kaplan-Meier analyses published in prominent medical journals that are potentially biased because of competing events ("competing risk bias"). We randomly selected 100 studies that had at least one Kaplan-Meier analysis and were recently published in prominent medical journals. Susceptibility to competing risk bias was determined by examining the outcome and potential competing events. In susceptible studies, bias was quantified using a previously validated prediction model when the number of outcomes and competing events were given. Forty-six studies (46%) contained Kaplan-Meier analyses susceptible to competing risk bias. Sixteen studies (34.8%) susceptible to competing risk cited the number of outcomes and competing events; in six of these studies (6/16, 37.5%), the outcome risk from the Kaplan-Meier estimate (relative to the true risk) was biased upward by 10% or more. Almost half of Kaplan-Meier analyses published in medical journals are susceptible to competing risk bias and may overestimate event risk. This bias was found to be quantitatively important in a third of such studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Teaching Risk Management: Addressing ACGME Core Competencies.

    PubMed

    Nissen, Kiki; Angus, Steven V; Miller, Wendy; Silverman, Adam R

    2010-12-01

    Risk management is an important aspect of education for all residents. Unfortunately, few curricula currently exist to fulfill this educational need. We developed a curriculum that teaches residents basic principles of risk management with the goals of (1) educating residents about the medical-legal environment in which they operate, (2) helping residents identify common malpractice exposures, and (3) teaching practical risk management/patient safety interventions that can be implemented in their practice that could reduce malpractice exposure and improve patient safety. The curriculum was developed by Medical Risk Management, LLC, a Connecticut-based risk management firm, in conjunction with academic leadership at the University of Connecticut. The program uses 3 learning modalities: live lectures, web-based video modules, and e-mailed learning publications. Gains in resident knowledge through participation in the curriculum were measured using pretests and posttests. Learner satisfaction with the curriculum was measured through web-based surveys. We found a significant improvement in knowledge in residents who took the pretest and posttest (P < .001). Of the survey respondents, 97% said the content was relevant to their specialty practice and 95% responded that these sessions should be held annually. Most respondents indicated they would change their practice as a result of what they learned from the live lectures. This risk management curriculum has been successful in providing our residents with learning activities in risk management, improving their knowledge of risk management principles, and changing their attitudes and behaviors. These improvements may lead to fewer malpractice claims against them and the hospitals they train in.

  1. Ohio Financial Services and Risk Management. Technical Competency Profile (TCP).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ray, Gayl M.; Wilson, Nick; Mangini, Rick

    This document describes the essential competencies from secondary through post-secondary associate degree programs for a career in financial services and risk management. Ohio College Tech Prep Program standards are described, and a key to profile codes is provided. Sample occupations in this career area, such as financial accountant, loan…

  2. Assessing Talking and Writing: Linguistic Competence for Students at Risk.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Montgomery, Judy K

    1998-01-01

    Suggests coordinated assessment and intervention strategies that speech language pathologists, special educators, and general educators, in co-teaching or inclusive settings, can use to assist at-risk students to achieve both oral and written linguistic competence. Proposes a strong link between talking and writing in the normal developmental…

  3. Decision-making competence predicts domain-specific risk attitudes

    PubMed Central

    Weller, Joshua A.; Ceschi, Andrea; Randolph, Caleb

    2015-01-01

    Decision-making competence (DMC) reflects individual differences in rational responding across several classic behavioral decision-making tasks. Although it has been associated with real-world risk behavior, less is known about the degree to which DMC contributes to specific components of risk attitudes. Utilizing a psychological risk-return framework, we examined the associations between risk attitudes and DMC. Italian community residents (n = 804) completed an online DMC measure, using a subset of the original Adult-DMC battery. Participants also completed a self-reported risk attitude measure for three components of risk attitudes (risk-taking, risk perceptions, and expected benefits) across six risk domains. Overall, greater performance on the DMC component scales were inversely, albeit modestly, associated with risk-taking tendencies. Structural equation modeling results revealed that DMC was associated with lower perceived expected benefits for all domains. In contrast, its association with perceived risks was more domain-specific. These analyses also revealed stronger indirect effects for the DMC → expected benefits → risk-taking path than the DMC → perceived riskrisk-taking path, especially for behaviors that may be considered more maladaptive in nature. These results suggest that DMC performance differentially impacts specific components of risk attitudes, and may be more strongly related to the evaluation of expected value of a specific behavior. PMID:26029128

  4. Societal perspectives on risk awareness and risk competence

    PubMed Central

    Koller, Michael; Hoffrage, Ulrich

    2015-01-01

    Medical risks can be assessed by objectifiable therapeutic features; however, these risks are also characterised to a considerable degree by individual and social values. People tend to strive towards both freedom as well as safety; in a medical context, these two aims are taken into account by shared decision-making models and by stricter regulations in the pharmaceutical sector. Media reports on medical risks are caught between providing information and economic interests, and this conflict particularly complicates rational discussions about unexpected risks (for instance, in the field of natural medicine). Thus, it is necessary to create the type of information culture which allows differentiating between real and less pronounced risks. PMID:26195921

  5. Societal perspectives on risk awareness and risk competence.

    PubMed

    Koller, Michael; Hoffrage, Ulrich

    2015-01-01

    Medical risks can be assessed by objectifiable therapeutic features; however, these risks are also characterised to a considerable degree by individual and social values. People tend to strive towards both freedom as well as safety; in a medical context, these two aims are taken into account by shared decision-making models and by stricter regulations in the pharmaceutical sector. Media reports on medical risks are caught between providing information and economic interests, and this conflict particularly complicates rational discussions about unexpected risks (for instance, in the field of natural medicine). Thus, it is necessary to create the type of information culture which allows differentiating between real and less pronounced risks.

  6. A review of methods to estimate cause-specific mortality in presence of competing risks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Heisey, Dennis M.; Patterson, Brent R.

    2006-01-01

    Estimating cause-specific mortality is often of central importance for understanding the dynamics of wildlife populations. Despite such importance, methodology for estimating and analyzing cause-specific mortality has received little attention in wildlife ecology during the past 20 years. The issue of analyzing cause-specific, mutually exclusive events in time is not unique to wildlife. In fact, this general problem has received substantial attention in human biomedical applications within the context of biostatistical survival analysis. Here, we consider cause-specific mortality from a modern biostatistical perspective. This requires carefully defining what we mean by cause-specific mortality and then providing an appropriate hazard-based representation as a competing risks problem. This leads to the general solution of cause-specific mortality as the cumulative incidence function (CIF). We describe the appropriate generalization of the fully nonparametric staggered-entry Kaplan–Meier survival estimator to cause-specific mortality via the nonparametric CIF estimator (NPCIFE), which in many situations offers an attractive alternative to the Heisey–Fuller estimator. An advantage of the NPCIFE is that it lends itself readily to risk factors analysis with standard software for Cox proportional hazards model. The competing risks–based approach also clarifies issues regarding another intuitive but erroneous "cause-specific mortality" estimator based on the Kaplan–Meier survival estimator and commonly seen in the life sciences literature.

  7. Project Work English Competency-Based Curriculum: Survival-Level One.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Northwest Educational Cooperative, Des Plaines, IL.

    This guide outlines a curriculum designed to provide English-as-a-Second-Language (ESL) life-skills instruction for refugees in the Chicago metropolitan area, concentrating on the Level One survival skills. Non-Southeast Asians account for more than half of those served, all of whom receive, or are at risk of receiving, public assistance. Most are…

  8. Analyzing semi-competing risks data with missing cause of informative terminal event.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Renke; Zhu, Hong; Bondy, Melissa; Ning, Jing

    2017-02-28

    Cancer studies frequently yield multiple event times that correspond to landmarks in disease progression, including non-terminal events (i.e., cancer recurrence) and an informative terminal event (i.e., cancer-related death). Hence, we often observe semi-competing risks data. Work on such data has focused on scenarios in which the cause of the terminal event is known. However, in some circumstances, the information on cause for patients who experience the terminal event is missing; consequently, we are not able to differentiate an informative terminal event from a non-informative terminal event. In this article, we propose a method to handle missing data regarding the cause of an informative terminal event when analyzing the semi-competing risks data. We first consider the nonparametric estimation of the survival function for the terminal event time given missing cause-of-failure data via the expectation-maximization algorithm. We then develop an estimation method for semi-competing risks data with missing cause of the terminal event, under a pre-specified semiparametric copula model. We conduct simulation studies to investigate the performance of the proposed method. We illustrate our methodology using data from a study of early-stage breast cancer. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Death Does Matter--Cancer Risk in Patients With End-Stage Renal Disease: A Nationwide Population-Based Study With Competing Risk Analyses.

    PubMed

    Weng, Shih-Feng; Chiu, Yu-Hsien; Jan, Ren-Long; Chen, Yi-Chen; Chien, Chih-Chiang; Wang, Jhi-Joung; Chu, Chin-Chen

    2016-01-01

    Patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) have a high mortality rate. We hypothesized that not accounting for death as a competing risk overestimates the event rate caused by ESRD. Thus, we examined the cancer risk for patients with ESRD (ESRD) after death as a competing risk event had been adjusted for. Patients with newly diagnosed ESRD (n = 64,299) between 1999 and 2007, together with age- and sex-matched controls without ESRD (ESRD) (n = 128,592) were enrolled (1:2). In a Cox proportional hazards model that included death as a competing risk, ESRD patients in Taiwan had a lower overall incidence (subdistribution hazard ratio [sdHR] = 1.29) of cancer than did ESRD patients in a Cox model that did not include death as a competing risk (HR = 1.70). After competing mortality had been adjusted for, ESRD patients ≥70 (sdHR = 0.82) and ESRD patients on long-term dialysis (> 5 follow-up years, sdHR = 0.62), had a lower risk for developing cancer than did ESRD patients. This finding supported our hypothesis that standard survival analyses overestimate the event rate, especially when the mortality rate is high. It also showed that ESRD patients, when they grow older, were far less likely to develop cancer and far more likely to die because of underlying illnesses that might also affect the risk of death because of ESRD.

  10. Modeling Potential Time to Event Data with Competing Risks

    PubMed Central

    Li, Liang; Hu, Bo; Kattan, Michael W.

    2014-01-01

    Patients receiving radical prostatectomy are at risk of metastasis or prostate cancer related death, and often need repeated clinical evaluations to determine whether additional adjuvant or salvage therapies are needed. Since the prostate cancer is a slowly progressing disease, and these additional therapies come with significant side effects, it is important for clinical decision making purposes to estimate a patient’s risk of cancer metastasis, in the presence of a competing risk by death, under the hypothetical condition that the patient does not receive any additional therapy. In observational studies, patients may receive additional therapy by choice; the time to metastasis without any therapy is often a potential outcome and not always observed. We study the competing risks model of Fine and Gray (1999) with adjustment for treatment choice by inverse probability censoring weighting (IPCW). The model can be fit using standard software for partial likelihood with double IPCW weights. The proposed methodology is used in a prostate cancer study to predict the post-prostatectomy cumulative incidence probability of cancer metastasis without additional adjuvant or salvage therapies. PMID:24061908

  11. Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis Overestimates the Risk of Revision Arthroplasty: A Meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Lacny, Sarah; Wilson, Todd; Clement, Fiona; Roberts, Derek J; Faris, Peter D; Ghali, William A; Marshall, Deborah A

    2015-11-01

    Although Kaplan-Meier survival analysis is commonly used to estimate the cumulative incidence of revision after joint arthroplasty, it theoretically overestimates the risk of revision in the presence of competing risks (such as death). Because the magnitude of overestimation is not well documented, the potential associated impact on clinical and policy decision-making remains unknown. We performed a meta-analysis to answer the following questions: (1) To what extent does the Kaplan-Meier method overestimate the cumulative incidence of revision after joint replacement compared with alternative competing-risks methods? (2) Is the extent of overestimation influenced by followup time or rate of competing risks? We searched Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS Previews, and Web of Science (1946, 1980, 1980, and 1899, respectively, to October 26, 2013) and included article bibliographies for studies comparing estimated cumulative incidence of revision after hip or knee arthroplasty obtained using both Kaplan-Meier and competing-risks methods. We excluded conference abstracts, unpublished studies, or studies using simulated data sets. Two reviewers independently extracted data and evaluated the quality of reporting of the included studies. Among 1160 abstracts identified, six studies were included in our meta-analysis. The principal reason for the steep attrition (1160 to six) was that the initial search was for studies in any clinical area that compared the cumulative incidence estimated using the Kaplan-Meier versus competing-risks methods for any event (not just the cumulative incidence of hip or knee revision); we did this to minimize the likelihood of missing any relevant studies. We calculated risk ratios (RRs) comparing the cumulative incidence estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method with the competing-risks method for each study and used DerSimonian and Laird random effects models to pool these RRs. Heterogeneity was explored using stratified meta-analyses and

  12. Actual and actuarial probabilities of competing risks: apples and lemons.

    PubMed

    Grunkemeier, Gary L; Jin, Ruyun; Eijkemans, Marinus J C; Takkenberg, Johanna J M

    2007-05-01

    The probability of a type of failure that is not inevitable, but can be precluded by other events such as death, is given by the cumulative incidence function. In cardiac research articles, it has become known as the actual probability, in contrast to the actuarial methods of estimation, usually implemented by the Kaplan-Meier (KM) estimate. Unlike cumulative incidence, KM attempts to predict what the latent failure probability would be if death were eliminated. To do this, the KM method assumes that the risk of dying and the risk of failure are independent. But this assumption is not true for many cardiac applications in which the risks of failure and death are negatively correlated (ie, patients with a higher risk of dying have a lower risk of failure, and patients with a lower risk of death have a higher risk of failure, which is a condition called informative censoring). Recent editorials in two cardiac journals have promoted the use of the KM method (actuarial estimate) for competing risk events (specifically for heart valve performance) and criticized the use of the cumulative incidence (actual) estimates. This report has two aims: to explain the difference between these two estimates and to show why the KM is generally not appropriate. In the process we will rely on alternative representations of the KM estimator (using redistribution to the right and inverse probability weighting) to explain the difference between the two estimates and to show how it may be possible to adjust KM to overcome the informative censoring.

  13. Optimising import risk mitigation: anticipating the unintended consequences and competing risks of informal trade.

    PubMed

    Hueston, W; Travis, D; van Klink, E

    2011-04-01

    The effectiveness of risk mitigation may be compromised by informal trade, including illegal activities, parallel markets and extra-legal activities. While no regulatory system is 100% effective in eliminating the risk of disease transmission through animal and animal product trade, extreme risk aversion in formal import health regulations may increase informal trade, with the unintended consequence of creating additional risks outside regulatory purview. Optimal risk mitigation on a national scale requires scientifically sound yet flexible mitigation strategies that can address the competing risks of formal and informal trade. More robust risk analysis and creative engagement of nontraditional partners provide avenues for addressing informal trade.

  14. Competing event risk stratification may improve the design and efficiency of clinical trials: Secondary analysis of SWOG 8794

    PubMed Central

    Zakeri, Kaveh; Rose, Brent S.; Gulaya, Sachin; D'Amico, Anthony V.; Mell, Loren K.

    2012-01-01

    Background Composite endpoints can be problematic in the presence of competing risks when a treatment does not affect events comprising the endpoint equally. Methods We conducted secondary analysis of SWOG 8794 trial of adjuvant radiation therapy (RT) for high-risk post-operative prostate cancer. The primary outcome was metastasis-free survival (MFS), defined as time to first occurrence of metastasis or death from any cause (competing mortality (CM)). We developed separate risk scores for time to metastasis and CM using competing risks regression. We estimated treatment effects using Cox models adjusted for risk scores and identified an enriched subgroup of 75 patients at high risk of metastasis and low risk of CM. Results The mean CM risk score was significantly lower in the RT arm vs. control arm (p=0.001). The effect of RT on MFS (HR 0.70; 95% CI, 0.53–0.92; p=0.010) was attenuated when controlling for metastasis and CM risk (HR 0.76; 95% CI, 0.58–1.00; p=0.049), and the effect of RT on overall survival (HR 0.73; 95% CI, 0.55–0.96; p=0.02) was no longer significant when controlling for metastasis and CM risk (HR 0.80; 95% CI, 0.60–1.06; p=0.12). Compared to the whole sample, the enriched subgroup had the same 10-year incidence of MFS (40%; 95% CI, 22–57%), but a higher incidence of metastasis (30% (95% CI, 15–47%) vs. 20% (95% CI, 15–26%)). A randomized trial in the subgroup would have achieved 80% power with 56% less patients (313 vs. 709, respectively). Conclusion Stratification on competing event risk may improve the efficiency of clinical trials. PMID:23063467

  15. Competing event risk stratification may improve the design and efficiency of clinical trials: secondary analysis of SWOG 8794.

    PubMed

    Zakeri, Kaveh; Rose, Brent S; Gulaya, Sachin; D'Amico, Anthony V; Mell, Loren K

    2013-01-01

    Composite endpoints can be problematic in the presence of competing risks when a treatment does not affect events comprising the endpoint equally. We conducted secondary analysis of SWOG 8794 trial of adjuvant radiation therapy (RT) for high-risk post-operative prostate cancer. The primary outcome was metastasis-free survival (MFS), defined as time to first occurrence of metastasis or death from any cause (competing mortality (CM)). We developed separate risk scores for time to metastasis and CM using competing risks regression. We estimated treatment effects using Cox models adjusted for risk scores and identified an enriched subgroup of 75 patients at high risk of metastasis and low risk of CM. The mean CM risk score was significantly lower in the RT arm vs. control arm (p=0.001). The effect of RT on MFS (HR 0.70; 95% CI, 0.53-0.92; p=0.010) was attenuated when controlling for metastasis and CM risk (HR 0.76; 95% CI, 0.58-1.00; p=0.049), and the effect of RT on overall survival (HR 0.73; 95% CI, 0.55-0.96; p=0.02) was no longer significant when controlling for metastasis and CM risk (HR 0.80; 95% CI, 0.60-1.06; p=0.12). Compared to the whole sample, the enriched subgroup had the same 10-year incidence of MFS (40%; 95% CI, 22-57%), but a higher incidence of metastasis (30% (95% CI, 15-47%) vs. 20% (95% CI, 15-26%)). A randomized trial in the subgroup would have achieved 80% power with 56% less patients (313 vs. 709, respectively). Stratification on competing event risk may improve the efficiency of clinical trials. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Practical recommendations for reporting Fine-Gray model analyses for competing risk data.

    PubMed

    Austin, Peter C; Fine, Jason P

    2017-09-15

    In survival analysis, a competing risk is an event whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the primary event of interest. Outcomes in medical research are frequently subject to competing risks. In survival analysis, there are 2 key questions that can be addressed using competing risk regression models: first, which covariates affect the rate at which events occur, and second, which covariates affect the probability of an event occurring over time. The cause-specific hazard model estimates the effect of covariates on the rate at which events occur in subjects who are currently event-free. Subdistribution hazard ratios obtained from the Fine-Gray model describe the relative effect of covariates on the subdistribution hazard function. Hence, the covariates in this model can also be interpreted as having an effect on the cumulative incidence function or on the probability of events occurring over time. We conducted a review of the use and interpretation of the Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model in articles published in the medical literature in 2015. We found that many authors provided an unclear or incorrect interpretation of the regression coefficients associated with this model. An incorrect and inconsistent interpretation of regression coefficients may lead to confusion when comparing results across different studies. Furthermore, an incorrect interpretation of estimated regression coefficients can result in an incorrect understanding about the magnitude of the association between exposure and the incidence of the outcome. The objective of this article is to clarify how these regression coefficients should be reported and to propose suggestions for interpreting these coefficients. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Risk Taking: A Required Competency for Merger, Acquisitions, and Partnerships.

    PubMed

    Trepanier, Sylvain; Crenshaw, Jeannette T; Yoder-Wise, Patricia S

    2016-01-01

    Today's nurse executive is likely to find himself or herself in the middle of a merger, acquisition, and/or partnership (MAP). This is the result of health care agencies vying for market share in the midst of stiff competition, as well as decreased reimbursement in a rapidly changing payment system. The phenomenon of MAPs is fueled by the focus on care coordination and population health management. To be prepared for the ongoing and increasing MAP activity, nurse executives need to develop the skill of risk taking as an essential competency for leading change. This article emphasizes the need to maintain and improve health care quality and patient safety.

  18. Allergies, obesity, other risk factors and survival from pancreatic cancer.

    PubMed

    Olson, Sara H; Chou, Joanne F; Ludwig, Emmy; O'Reilly, Eileen; Allen, Peter J; Jarnagin, William R; Bayuga, Sharon; Simon, Jennifer; Gonen, Mithat; Reisacher, William R; Kurtz, Robert C

    2010-11-15

    Survival from pancreatic adenocarcinoma remains extremely poor, approximately 5% at 5 years. Risk factors include smoking, high body mass index (BMI), family history of pancreatic cancer, and long-standing diabetes; in contrast, allergies are associated with reduced risk. Little is known about associations between these factors and survival. We analyzed overall survival in relation to risk factors for 475 incident cases who took part in a hospital based case-control study. Analyses were conducted separately for those who did (160) and did not (315) undergo tumor resection. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to describe survival according to smoking, BMI, family history, diabetes, and presence of allergies. Cox proportional hazards models were used to adjust for covariates. There was no association with survival based on smoking, family history, or history of diabetes in either group. Among patients with resection, those with allergies showed nonstatistically significant longer survival, a median of 33.1 months (95% CI: 19.0-52.5) vs. 21.8 months (95% CI: 18.0-33.1), p = 0.25. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.43-1.23), p = 0.23. Among patients without resection, those with self-reported allergies survived significantly longer than those without allergies: 13.3 months (95% CI: 10.6-16.9) compared to 10.4 months (95% CI: 8.8-11.0), p = 0.04, with an adjusted HR of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.49-0.95), p = 0.02. Obesity was nonsignificantly associated with poorer survival, particularly in the resected group (HR = 1.62, 95% CI: 0.76-3.44). The mechanisms underlying the association between history of allergies and improved survival are unknown. These novel results need to be confirmed in other studies.

  19. Competing events influence estimated survival probability: when is Kaplan-Meier analysis appropriate?

    PubMed

    Biau, David Jean; Latouche, Aurélien; Porcher, Raphaël

    2007-09-01

    The Kaplan-Meier estimator is the current method for estimating the probability of an event to occur with time in orthopaedics. However, the Kaplan-Meier estimator was designed to estimate the probability of an event that eventually will occur for all patients, ie, death, and this does not hold for other outcomes. For example, not all patients will experience hip arthroplasty loosening because some may die first, and some may have their implant removed to treat infection or recurrent hip dislocation. Such events that preclude the observation of the event of interest are called competing events. We suggest the Kaplan-Meier estimator is inappropriate in the presence of competing events and show that it overestimates the probability of the event of interest to occur with time. The cumulative incidence estimator is an alternative approach to Kaplan-Meier in situations where competing risks are likely. Three common situations include revision for implant loosening in the long-term followup of arthroplasties or implant failure in the context of limb-salvage surgery or femoral neck fracture.

  20. Relationship between apoptosis and survival molecules in human cumulus cells as markers of oocyte competence.

    PubMed

    Bosco, Liana; Chiarelli, Roberto; Roccheri, Maria Carmela; Matranga, Domenica; Ruvolo, Giovanni

    2017-08-08

    To select from a single patient the best oocytes able to reach the blastocyst stage, we searched for valuable markers for oocytes competence. We evaluated the DNA fragmentation index (DFI) and the level of some survival molecules, such as AKT, pAKT and pERK1/2, in individual cumulus cell-oocyte complexes (COC). The study included normo-responder women. The average age of the patients was 34.3. DFI in cumulus cells was evaluated using the terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase (TdT) dUTP nick-end labelling (TUNEL) assay in situ. AKT, pAKT and pERK1/2 were measured by immunological assay and densitometric analysis of fluorescent signals using NIS-Elements BR 3.10 image software. Statistical analysis was performed using STATA SE/14.1. The study focused on 53 patients involved after informed consent. Out of 255 MII oocytes, 197 were fertilized and the derived embryos had the following evolution: 117 completed the development to blastocyst and were transferred to uterus; 57 were vitrified at the blastocyst stage; and 23 were arrested during in vitro culture at different stages of cleavage. We found a significant statistical difference between the DFI of cumulus cells of the arrested embryos and the transferred blastocysts (P = 0.004), confirming that DFI could be considered as a valuable marker of oocyte competence. In addition, the pAKT/DFI ratio was higher in cumulus cells of oocytes able to produce blastocysts, indicating that DFI is significantly lower when pAKT is higher (P = 0.043). This study demonstrates for the first time that the relationship between apoptosis and survival molecules can be used as a marker to select the best oocytes.

  1. Epidemiology of competence: a scoping review to understand the risks and supports to competence of four health professions

    PubMed Central

    Glover Takahashi, Susan; Nayer, Marla

    2017-01-01

    Objectives This study examined the risks and supports to competence discussed in the literature related to occupational therapists, pharmacists, physical therapists and physicians, using epidemiology as a conceptual model. Design Articles from a scoping literature review, published from 1975 to 2014 inclusive, were included if they were about a risk or support to the professional or clinical competence of one of four health professions. Descriptive and regression analyses identified potential associations between risks and supports to competence and the location of study, type of health profession, competence life-cycle and the domain(s) of competence (organised around the CanMEDS framework). Results A total of 3572 abstracts were reviewed and 943 articles analysed. Most focused on physicians (n=810, 86.0%) and ‘practice’ (n=642, 68.0%). Fewer articles discussed risks to competence (n=418, 44.3%) than supports (n=750, 79.5%). The top four risks, each discussed in over 15% of articles, were: transitions in practice, being an international graduate, lack of clinical exposure/experience (ie, insufficient volume of procedures or patients) and age. The top two supports (over 35%) were continuing education participation and educational information/programme features. About 60% of all the articles discussed medical expert and about 25% applied to all roles. Articles focusing on residents had a greater probability of reporting on risks. Conclusions Articles about physicians were dominant. The majority of articles were written in the last decade and more discussed supports than risks to competence. An epidemiology-based conceptual model offers a helpful organising framework for exploring and explaining the competence of health professions. PMID:28864686

  2. Multiple Imputation for Estimating the Risk of Developing Dementia and Its Impact on Survival

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Binbing; Saczynski, Jane S.; Launer, Lenore J.

    2011-01-01

    Summary Dementia, Alzheimer’s disease in particular, is one of the major causes of disability and decreased quality of life among the elderly and a leading obstacle to successful aging. Given the profound impact on public health, much research has focused on the age-specific risk of developing dementia and the impact on survival. Early work has discussed various methods of estimating age-specific incidence of dementia, among which the illness-death model is popular for modeling disease progression. In this article we use multiple imputation to fit multi-state models for survival data with interval censoring and left truncation. This approach allows semi-Markov models in which survival after dementia may depend on onset age. Such models can be used to estimate the cumulative risk of developing dementia in the presence of the competing risk of dementia-free death. Simulations are carried out to examine the performance of the proposed method. We analyze data from the Honolulu Asia Aging Study to estimate the age-specific and cumulative risks of dementia and to examine the effect of major risk factors on dementia onset and death. PMID:20976693

  3. Competing risks to breast cancer mortality in Catalonia

    PubMed Central

    Vilaprinyo, Ester; Gispert, Rosa; Martínez-Alonso, Montserrat; Carles, Misericòrdia; Pla, Roger; Espinàs, Josep-Alfons; Rué, Montserrat

    2008-01-01

    Background Breast cancer mortality has experienced important changes over the last century. Breast cancer occurs in the presence of other competing risks which can influence breast cancer incidence and mortality trends. The aim of the present work is: 1) to assess the impact of breast cancer deaths among mortality from all causes in Catalonia (Spain), by age and birth cohort and 2) to estimate the risk of death from other causes than breast cancer, one of the inputs needed to model breast cancer mortality reduction due to screening or therapeutic interventions. Methods The multi-decrement life table methodology was used. First, all-cause mortality probabilities were obtained by age and cohort. Then mortality probability for breast cancer was subtracted from the all-cause mortality probabilities to obtain cohort life tables for causes other than breast cancer. These life tables, on one hand, provide an estimate of the risk of dying from competing risks, and on the other hand, permit to assess the impact of breast cancer deaths on all-cause mortality using the ratio of the probability of death for causes other than breast cancer by the all-cause probability of death. Results There was an increasing impact of breast cancer on mortality in the first part of the 20th century, with a peak for cohorts born in 1945–54 in the 40–49 age groups (for which approximately 24% of mortality was due to breast cancer). Even though for cohorts born after 1955 there was only information for women under 50, it is also important to note that the impact of breast cancer on all-cause mortality decreased for those cohorts. Conclusion We have quantified the effect of removing breast cancer mortality in different age groups and birth cohorts. Our results are consistent with US findings. We also have obtained an estimate of the risk of dying from competing-causes mortality, which will be used in the assessment of the effect of mammography screening on breast cancer mortality in Catalonia

  4. Parametric likelihood inference for interval censored competing risks data.

    PubMed

    Hudgens, Michael G; Li, Chenxi; Fine, Jason P

    2014-03-01

    Parametric estimation of the cumulative incidence function (CIF) is considered for competing risks data subject to interval censoring. Existing parametric models of the CIF for right censored competing risks data are adapted to the general case of interval censoring. Maximum likelihood estimators for the CIF are considered under the assumed models, extending earlier work on nonparametric estimation. A simple naive likelihood estimator is also considered that utilizes only part of the observed data. The naive estimator enables separate estimation of models for each cause, unlike full maximum likelihood in which all models are fit simultaneously. The naive likelihood is shown to be valid under mixed case interval censoring, but not under an independent inspection process model, in contrast with full maximum likelihood which is valid under both interval censoring models. In simulations, the naive estimator is shown to perform well and yield comparable efficiency to the full likelihood estimator in some settings. The methods are applied to data from a large, recent randomized clinical trial for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV.

  5. Outcome after Reconstruction of the Proximal Tibia – Complications and Competing Risk Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Puchner, Stephan E.; Kutscha-Lissberg, Paul; Kaider, Alexandra; Panotopoulos, Joannis; Puchner, Rudolf; Böhler, Christoph; Hobusch, Gerhard; Windhager, Reinhard; Funovics, Philipp T.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Objectives The proximal tibia (pT) is a common site for bone tumors. Improvements in imaging, chemotherapy and surgical technique made limb salvage surgery the treatment of choice. Yet, reconstructions of the pT have been associated with less favorable outcome compared to other parts of the extremities. The aim of this study was to evaluate the outcome of patients with a modular endoprosthetic reconstruction of the pT. Methods Eighty-one consecutive patients with an average age of 29 years underwent endoprosthetic reconstruction of the pT. Postoperative complications were categorized according to the ISOLS classification, and revision-free survival until first complication (any Type 1–5), soft tissue failure (Type 1), aseptic loosening (Type 2), structural failure (Type 3), infection (Type 4), and local tumor progression (Type 5) was estimated by using a Fine-Gray model for competing risk analyses for univariate and multivariable regression with Firth’s bias correction. Results A total of 45 patients (56%) had at least one complication. Cumulative incidence for complication Types 1 to 5 at 5 years with death and amputation as competing events revealed a risk of 41% for the first complication, 14% for Type 1, 16% for Type 2, 11% for Type 3, 17% for Type 4, and 1% for Type 5. Conclusion Despite inclusion of amputation and death as strong competing events, pT replacements are still associated with a high risk of postoperative failures. The results suggest that infection and soft tissue failures (Type 1 and 5) seem to depend from each other. Sufficient soft tissue reconstruction and closure allow better function and reduce the risk of infection as the most prominent complication. The use of a rotating hinge design has significantly reduced structural failures over time. PMID:26270336

  6. Survival Association Rule Mining Towards Type 2 Diabetes Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Simon, Gyorgy J.; Schrom, John; Castro, M. Regina; Li, Peter W.; Caraballo, Pedro J.

    2013-01-01

    Type-2 Diabetes Mellitus is a growing epidemic that often leads to severe complications. Effective preventive measures exist and identifying patients at high risk of diabetes is a major health-care need. The use of association rule mining (ARM) is advantageous, as it was specifically developed to identify associations between risk factors in an interpretable form. Unfortunately, traditional ARM is not directly applicable to survival outcomes and it lacks the ability to compensate for confounders and to incorporate dosage effects. In this work, we propose Survival Association Rule (SAR) Mining, which addresses these shortcomings. We demonstrate on a real diabetes data set that SARs are naturally more interpretable than the traditional association rules, and predictive models built on top of these rules are very competitive relative to state of the art survival models and substantially outperform the most widely used diabetes index, the Framingham score. PMID:24551408

  7. Effect of Psychosocial Factors on Cancer Risk and Survival

    PubMed Central

    Nakaya, Naoki

    2014-01-01

    Psychosocial factors such as personality traits and depression may alter immune and endocrine function, with possible effects on cancer incidence and survival. Although these factors have been extensively studied as risk and prognostic factors for cancer, the associations remain unclear. The author used data from prospective cohort studies in population-based and clinical databases to investigate these relations. The findings do not support the hypotheses that personality traits and depression are direct risk factors for cancer and cancer survival. Some researchers have recently reported that cancer affects the psychological status of the partners and family members of cancer patients. The mechanisms underlying this hypothesis imply the existence of not only psychological distress from caregiving and grief but also a shared unhealthy lifestyle. Only a few studies have suggested that major psychosocial problems develop in partners of cancer patients. The present study used nationwide population-based data to investigate depression risk among male partners of women with breast cancer. The results support the hypothesis that such men are at increased risk of depression. In conclusion, the effects of personality traits and depression on cancer risk and survival appear to be extremely small. In addition, partners of cancer patients were at increased risk of depression. Screening partners and family members of cancer patients for depressive symptoms is therefore an important concern for research in psycho-oncology. PMID:24270060

  8. Analysing multicentre competing risks data with a mixed proportional hazards model for the subdistribution.

    PubMed

    Katsahian, Sandrine; Resche-Rigon, Matthieu; Chevret, Sylvie; Porcher, Raphaël

    2006-12-30

    In the competing-risks setting, to test the effect of a covariate on the probability of one particular cause of failure, the Fine and Gray model for the subdistribution hazard can be used. However, sometimes, competing risks data cannot be considered as independent because of a clustered design, for instance in registry cohorts or multicentre clinical trials. Frailty models have been shown useful to analyse such clustered data in a classical survival setting, where only one risk acts on the population. Inclusion of random effects in the subdistribution hazard has not been assessed yet. In this work, we propose a frailty model for the subdistribution hazard. This allows first to assess the heterogeneity across clusters, then to incorporate such an effect when testing the effect of a covariate of interest. Based on simulation study, the effect of the presence of heterogeneity on testing for covariate effects was studied. Finally, the model was illustrated on a data set from a registry cohort of patients with acute myeloid leukaemia who underwent bone marrow transplantation.

  9. Comparison of competing risks models based on cumulative incidence function in analyzing time to cardiovascular diseases.

    PubMed

    Dianatkhah, Minoo; Rahgozar, Mehdi; Talaei, Mohammad; Karimloua, Masoud; Sadeghi, Masoumeh; Oveisgharan, Shahram; Sarrafzadegan, Nizal

    2014-01-01

    Competing risks arise when the subject is exposed to more than one cause of failure. Data consists of the time that the subject failed and an indicator of which risk caused the subject to fail. With three approaches consisting of Fine and Gray, binomial, and pseudo-value, all of which are directly based on cumulative incidence function, cardiovascular disease data of the Isfahan Cohort Study were analyzed. Validity of proportionality assumption for these approaches is the basis for selecting appropriate models. Such as for the Fine and Gray model, establishing proportionality assumption is necessary. In the binomial approach, a parametric, non-parametric, or semi-parametric model was offered according to validity of assumption. However, pseudo-value approaches do not need to establish proportionality. Following fitting the models to data, slight differences in parameters and variances estimates were seen among models. This showed that semi-parametric multiplicative model and the two models based on pseudo-value approach could be used for fitting this kind of data. We would recommend considering the use of competing risk models instead of normal survival methods when subjects are exposed to more than one cause of failure.

  10. A SAS macro for the joint modeling of longitudinal outcomes and multiple competing risk dropouts.

    PubMed

    Wang, Wei; Wang, Wanmei; Mosley, Thomas H; Griswold, Michael E

    2017-01-01

    The joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data to assess effects of multiple informative dropout mechanisms on longitudinal outcomes inference has received considerable attention during recent years; related statistical programs to apply these methods have been lacking. This paper provides a SAS macro implementation of a shared parameter model to accommodate the analysis of longitudinal outcomes in the presence of multiple competing survival/dropout events. In this macro, we assumed that the associations between the survival and the longitudinal submodels are linked through a set of shared random effects. The submodel for the longitudinal outcome takes the form of a linear mixed effects model, with specifications for the random intercept and/or random slope. The survival submodel allows up to three different competing causes for dropout, each allowing either an exponential or Weibull parametric baseline hazard function. In addition, information criterion fit statistics AIC and BIC are provided to assist with parametric baseline hazard function selection. We illustrate the SAS Macro in a cognitive decline study sensitivity analysis using data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Neurocognitive Study (ARIC-NCS). In addition, we also conduct a simulation study to show that the joint model provides unbiased parameter estimates when informative dropout exists compared against separate model approach which assumes missing at random dropout mechanisms. We have presented a SAS macro to implement a shared parameter model for a longitudinal outcome and multiple cause-specific dropouts and made the macro code freely available for download. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Risky-Play at School. Facilitating Risk Perception and Competence in Young Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lavrysen, Ann; Bertrands, Els; Leyssen, Leene; Smets, Lieve; Vanderspikken, Anja; De Graef, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Recent research indicates that risk competence and perception can be improved through the learning environment. The project "Riscki" examined how risk perception and risk competence in young children between three and eight years of age can be observed and measured within the classroom and school context. An intensive package of…

  12. A New Flexible Dependence Measure for Semi-competing Risks

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Jing

    2016-01-01

    Summary Semi-competing risks data are often encountered in chronic disease follow-up studies that record both nonterminal events (eg. disease landmark events) and terminal events (eg. death). Studying the relationship between the nonterminal event and the terminal event can provide insightful information on disease progression. In this paper, we propose a new sensible dependence measure tailored to addressing such an interest. We develop a nonparametric estimator, which is general enough to handle both independent right censoring and left truncation. Our strategy of connecting the new dependence measure with quantile regression enables a natural extension to adjust for covariates with minor additional assumptions imposed. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators and develop inferences accordingly. Simulation studies suggest good finite-sample performance of the proposed methods. Our proposals are illustrated via an application to Denmark diabetes registry data. PMID:26916804

  13. Exposure to sperm competition risk improves survival of virgin males.

    PubMed

    Moatt, Joshua P; Dytham, Calvin; Thom, Michael D F

    2013-04-23

    Sperm competition between the ejaculates of multiple males for the fertilization of a given set of ova is taxonomically widespread. Males have evolved remarkable adaptations to increase their reproductive success under postcopulatory sexual selection, which in many species includes the ability to modify behaviour and ejaculate characteristics plastically to match the perceived level of sperm competition. Males of the model species Drosophila melanogaster increase mating duration and modify seminal fluid composition in response to short-term changes in sperm competition risk. If these responses increase a male's total investment in reproduction, he must either trade-off this cost against other life-history traits or suffer reduced survival. We tested whether mounting a plastic sperm competition response bears an instantaneous survival cost, and instead found that male D. melanogaster exposed to a high risk of sperm competition survive 12 per cent longer than those at low risk, equating to a 49 per cent reduction in the hourly hazard of death. This striking effect was found only among virgins: the high cost of mating in this species eliminates any such benefit among non-virgin males. Our results suggest that the improvement in survival found among virgins may be a product of males' tactical responses to sperm competition.

  14. Competing Risk Analysis for Evaluation of Dalteparin Versus Unfractionated Heparin for Venous Thromboembolism in Medical-Surgical Critically Ill Patients.

    PubMed

    Li, Guowei; Cook, Deborah J; Levine, Mitchell A H; Guyatt, Gordon; Crowther, Mark; Heels-Ansdell, Diane; Holbrook, Anne; Lamontagne, Francois; Walter, Stephen D; Ferguson, Niall D; Finfer, Simon; Arabi, Yaseen M; Bellomo, Rinaldo; Cooper, D Jamie; Thabane, Lehana

    2015-09-01

    Failure to recognize the presence of competing risk or to account for it may result in misleading conclusions. We aimed to perform a competing risk analysis to assess the efficacy of the low molecular weight heparin dalteparin versus unfractionated heparin (UFH) in venous thromboembolism (VTE) in medical-surgical critically ill patients, taking death as a competing risk.This was a secondary analysis of a prospective randomized study of the Prophylaxis for Thromboembolism in Critical Care Trial (PROTECT) database. A total of 3746 medical-surgical critically ill patients from 67 intensive care units (ICUs) in 6 countries receiving either subcutaneous UFH 5000 IU twice daily (n = 1873) or dalteparin 5000 IU once daily plus once-daily placebo (n = 1873) were included for analysis.A total of 205 incident proximal leg deep vein thromboses (PLDVT) were reported during follow-up, among which 96 were in the dalteparin group and 109 were in the UFH group. No significant treatment effect of dalteparin on PLDVT compared with UFH was observed in either the competing risk analysis or standard survival analysis (also known as cause-specific analysis) using multivariable models adjusted for APACHE II score, history of VTE, need for vasopressors, and end-stage renal disease: sub-hazard ratio (SHR) = 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.70-1.21, P-value = 0.56 for the competing risk analysis; hazard ratio (HR) = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.68-1.23, P-value = 0.57 for cause-specific analysis. Dalteparin was associated with a significant reduction in risk of pulmonary embolism (PE): SHR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.31-0.94, P-value = 0.02 for the competing risk analysis; HR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.30-0.88, P-value = 0.01 for the cause-specific analysis. Two additional sensitivity analyses using the treatment variable as a time-dependent covariate and using as-treated and per-protocol approaches demonstrated similar findings.This competing risk analysis yields no

  15. Competing Risk Analysis for Evaluation of Dalteparin Versus Unfractionated Heparin for Venous Thromboembolism in Medical-Surgical Critically Ill Patients

    PubMed Central

    Li, Guowei; Cook, Deborah J.; Levine, Mitchell A.H.; Guyatt, Gordon; Crowther, Mark; Heels-Ansdell, Diane; Holbrook, Anne; Lamontagne, Francois; Walter, Stephen D.; Ferguson, Niall D.; Finfer, Simon; Arabi, Yaseen M.; Bellomo, Rinaldo; Cooper, D. Jamie; Thabane, Lehana

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Failure to recognize the presence of competing risk or to account for it may result in misleading conclusions. We aimed to perform a competing risk analysis to assess the efficacy of the low molecular weight heparin dalteparin versus unfractionated heparin (UFH) in venous thromboembolism (VTE) in medical-surgical critically ill patients, taking death as a competing risk. This was a secondary analysis of a prospective randomized study of the Prophylaxis for Thromboembolism in Critical Care Trial (PROTECT) database. A total of 3746 medical-surgical critically ill patients from 67 intensive care units (ICUs) in 6 countries receiving either subcutaneous UFH 5000 IU twice daily (n = 1873) or dalteparin 5000 IU once daily plus once-daily placebo (n = 1873) were included for analysis. A total of 205 incident proximal leg deep vein thromboses (PLDVT) were reported during follow-up, among which 96 were in the dalteparin group and 109 were in the UFH group. No significant treatment effect of dalteparin on PLDVT compared with UFH was observed in either the competing risk analysis or standard survival analysis (also known as cause-specific analysis) using multivariable models adjusted for APACHE II score, history of VTE, need for vasopressors, and end-stage renal disease: sub-hazard ratio (SHR) = 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.70–1.21, P-value = 0.56 for the competing risk analysis; hazard ratio (HR) = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.68–1.23, P-value = 0.57 for cause-specific analysis. Dalteparin was associated with a significant reduction in risk of pulmonary embolism (PE): SHR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.31–0.94, P-value = 0.02 for the competing risk analysis; HR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.30–0.88, P-value = 0.01 for the cause-specific analysis. Two additional sensitivity analyses using the treatment variable as a time-dependent covariate and using as-treated and per-protocol approaches demonstrated similar findings. This competing risk analysis

  16. Competing risks analysis of microsatellite instability as a prognostic factor in colorectal cancer.

    PubMed

    Toh, J; Chapuis, P H; Bokey, L; Chan, C; Spring, K J; Dent, O F

    2017-08-01

    Despite an extensive literature suggesting that high microsatellite instability (MSI-H) enhances survival and protects against recurrence after colorectal cancer resection, such effects remain controversial as many studies show only a weak bivariate association or no multivariable association with outcome. This study examined the relationship between MSI status and colorectal cancer outcomes with adjustment for death from other causes as a competing risk. A hospital database of patients following colorectal cancer resection was interrogated for clinical, operative, pathology, adjuvant therapy and follow-up information. MSI-H status was determined by immunohistochemistry for mismatch repair protein deficiency. The cumulative incidence of recurrence and colorectal cancer-specific death was evaluated by competing risks methods. Among 1009 patients who had a resection between August 2002 and December 2008, and were followed to at least December 2013, there were 114 (11·3 per cent) with MSI-H (72·8 per cent aged at least 70 years; 63·2 per cent women). After potentially curative resection, with adjustment for non-colorectal cancer death as a competing risk and adjustment for 22 clinical, operative and pathological variables, there was no association between MSI-H and recurrence (hazard ratio (HR) 0·81, 95 per cent c.i. 0·42 to 1·57) or colorectal cancer-specific death (HR 0·73, 0·39 to 1·35) in this patient population. For palliative resections, there was no association between MSI-H and colorectal cancer-specific death (HR 0·65, 0·21 to 2·04). MSI-H was associated with non-colorectal cancer death after both curative (HR 1·55, 1·04 to 2·30) and palliative (HR 3·80, 1·32 to 11·00) resections. Microsatellite instability status was not an independent prognostic variable in these patients. © 2017 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Landmark Risk Prediction of Residual Life for Breast Cancer Survival

    PubMed Central

    Parast, Layla; Cai, Tianxi

    2013-01-01

    The importance of developing personalized risk prediction estimates has become increasingly evident in recent years. In general, patient populations may be heterogenous and represent a mixture of different unknown subtypes of disease. When the source of this heterogeneity and resulting subtypes of disease are unknown, accurate prediction of survival may be difficult. However, in certain disease settings the onset time of an observable short term event may be highly associated with these unknown subtypes of disease and thus may be useful in predicting long term survival. One approach to incorporate short term event information along with baseline markers for the prediction of long term survival is through a landmark Cox model, which assumes a proportional hazards model for the residual life at a given landmark point. In this paper, we use this modeling framework to develop procedures to assess how a patient’s long term survival trajectory may change over time given good short term outcome indications along with prognosis based on baseline markers. We first propose time-varying accuracy measures to quantify the predictive performance of landmark prediction rules for residual life and provide resampling-based procedures to make inference about such accuracy measures. Simulation studies show that the proposed procedures perform well in finite samples. Throughout, we illustrate our proposed procedures using a breast cancer dataset with information on time to metastasis and time to death. In addition to baseline clinical markers available for each patient, a chromosome instability genetic score, denoted by CIN25, is also available for each patient and has been shown to be predictive of survival for various types of cancer. We provide procedures to evaluate the incremental value of CIN25 for the prediction of residual life and examine how the residual life profile changes over time. This allows us to identify an informative landmark point, t0, such that accurate risk

  18. Estimating twin concordance for bivariate competing risks twin data.

    PubMed

    Scheike, Thomas H; Holst, Klaus K; Hjelmborg, Jacob B

    2014-03-30

    For twin time-to-event data, we consider different concordance probabilities, such as the casewise concordance that are routinely computed as a measure of the lifetime dependence/correlation for specific diseases. The concordance probability here is the probability that both twins have experienced the event of interest. Under the assumption that both twins are censored at the same time, we show how to estimate this probability in the presence of right censoring, and as a consequence, we can then estimate the casewise twin concordance. In addition, we can model the magnitude of within pair dependence over time, and covariates may be further influential on the marginal risk and dependence structure. We establish the estimators large sample properties and suggest various tests, for example, for inferring familial influence. The method is demonstrated and motivated by specific twin data on cancer events with the competing risk death. We thus aim to quantify the degree of dependence through the casewise concordance function and show a significant genetic component.

  19. The use of group sequential designs with common competing risks tests

    PubMed Central

    Logan, Brent R.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    2012-01-01

    Clinical trials are often performed using a group sequential design in order to allow investigators to review the accumulating data sequentially and possibly terminate the trial early for efficacy or futility. Standard methods for comparing survival distributions have been shown under varying levels of generality to follow an independent increments structure. In the presence of competing risks, where the occurrence of one type of event precludes the occurrence of another type of event, researchers may be interested in inference on the cumulative incidence function, which describes the probability of experiencing a particular event by a given time. This manuscript shows that two commonly used tests for comparing cumulative incidence functions, a pointwise comparison at a single point, and Gray's test, also follow the independent increments structure when used in a group sequential setting. A simulation study confirms the theoretical derivations even for modest trial sample sizes. Two examples of clinical trials in hematopoietic cell transplantation are used to illustrate the techniques. PMID:22945865

  20. Multiple primary tumours: incidence estimation in the presence of competing risks

    PubMed Central

    Rosso, Stefano; Terracini, Lea; Ricceri, Fulvio; Zanetti, Roberto

    2009-01-01

    Background Estimating the risk of developing subsequent primary tumours in a population is difficult since the occurrence probability is conditioned to the survival probability. Methods We proposed to apply Markov models studying the transition intensities from first to second tumour with the Aalen-Johansen (AJ) estimators, as usually done in competing risk models. In a simulation study we applied the proposed method in different settings with constant or varying underlying intensities and applying age standardisation. In addition, we illustrated the method with data on breast cancer from the Piedmont Cancer Registry. Results The simulation study showed that the person-years approach led to a sensibly wider bias than the AJ estimators. The largest bias was observed assuming constantly increasing incidence rates. However, this situation is rather uncommon dealing with subsequent tumours incidence. In 9233 cases with breast cancer occurred in women resident in Turin, Italy, between 1985 and 1998 we observed a significant increased risk of 1.91 for subsequent cancer of corpus uteri, estimated with the age-standardised Aalen-Johansen incidence ratio (AJ-IRstand), and a significant increased risk of 1.29 for cancer possibly related to the radiotherapy of breast cancer. The peak of occurrence of those cancers was observed after 8 years of follow-up. Conclusion The increased risk of a cancer of the corpus uteri, also observed in other studies, is usually interpreted as the common shared risk factors such as low parity, early menarche and late onset of menopause. We also grouped together those cancers possibly associated to a previous local radiotherapy: the cumulative risk at 14 years is still not significant, however the AJ estimators showed a significant risk peak between the eighth and the ninth year. Finally, the proposed approach has been shown to be reliable and informative under several aspects. It allowed for a correct estimation of the risk, and for investigating

  1. A Method for Evaluating Competency in Assessment and Management of Suicide Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hung, Erick K.; Binder, Renee L.; Fordwood, Samantha R.; Hall, Stephen E.; Cramer, Robert J.; McNiel, Dale E.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Although health professionals increasingly are expected to be able to assess and manage patients' risk for suicide, few methods are available to evaluate this competency. This report describes development of a competency-assessment instrument for suicide risk-assessment (CAI-S), and evaluates its use in an objective structured clinical…

  2. A Method for Evaluating Competency in Assessment and Management of Suicide Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hung, Erick K.; Binder, Renee L.; Fordwood, Samantha R.; Hall, Stephen E.; Cramer, Robert J.; McNiel, Dale E.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Although health professionals increasingly are expected to be able to assess and manage patients' risk for suicide, few methods are available to evaluate this competency. This report describes development of a competency-assessment instrument for suicide risk-assessment (CAI-S), and evaluates its use in an objective structured clinical…

  3. Unconditional and conditional competing risk models of activity duration and activity sequencing decisions: An empirical comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leszczyc, Peter T. L. Popkowski; Timmermans, Harry

    This paper reports the results of an empirical comparison of various types of competing risk models in predicting the timing and duration of activities. In particular, three types of models are compared: a non-competing risk model, an unconditional competing risk model, and a conditional competing risk model. The models are applied to an activity diary, collected in the Netherlands. The results of the comparison indicate that the conditional competing risk model performs best, indicating that the choice and timing of activities depends on the nature and duration of the activity conducted previously. The specific structure of these dependent transition probabilities are discussed in detail. Several socio-demographic variables are found to be significantly related to the transition probabilities.

  4. Identifying Factors Associated with Risk Assessment Competencies of Public Health Emergency Responders

    PubMed Central

    Hao, Jiejing; Ren, Jiaojiao; Wu, Qunhong; Hao, Yanhua; Sun, Hong; Ning, Ning; Ding, Ding

    2017-01-01

    This study aimed to better understand the current situation of risk assessment and identify the factors associated with competence of emergency responders in public health risk assessment. The participants were selected by a multi-stage, stratified cluster sampling method in Heilongjiang Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The questionnaires that measured their perceptions on risk assessment competences were administered through the face-to-face survey. A final sample of 1889 staff was obtained. Of this sample, 78.6% of respondents rated their own risk assessment competences as “relatively low”, contrasting with 21.4% rated as “relatively high”. Most of the respondents (62.7%) did not participate in any risk assessment work. Only 13.7% and 42.7% of respondents reported participating in risk assessment training and were familiar with risk assessment tools. There existed statistical significance between risk assessment-related characteristics of respondents and their self-rated competences scores. Financial support from the government and administrative attention were regarded as the important factors contributing to risk assessment competences of CDC responders. Higher attention should be given to risk assessment training and enhancing the availability of surveillance data. Continuous efforts should be made to remove the financial and technical obstacles to improve the competences of risk assessment for public health emergency responders. PMID:28587226

  5. Identifying Factors Associated with Risk Assessment Competencies of Public Health Emergency Responders.

    PubMed

    Hao, Jiejing; Ren, Jiaojiao; Wu, Qunhong; Hao, Yanhua; Sun, Hong; Ning, Ning; Ding, Ding

    2017-06-04

    This study aimed to better understand the current situation of risk assessment and identify the factors associated with competence of emergency responders in public health risk assessment. The participants were selected by a multi-stage, stratified cluster sampling method in Heilongjiang Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The questionnaires that measured their perceptions on risk assessment competences were administered through the face-to-face survey. A final sample of 1889 staff was obtained. Of this sample, 78.6% of respondents rated their own risk assessment competences as "relatively low", contrasting with 21.4% rated as "relatively high". Most of the respondents (62.7%) did not participate in any risk assessment work. Only 13.7% and 42.7% of respondents reported participating in risk assessment training and were familiar with risk assessment tools. There existed statistical significance between risk assessment-related characteristics of respondents and their self-rated competences scores. Financial support from the government and administrative attention were regarded as the important factors contributing to risk assessment competences of CDC responders. Higher attention should be given to risk assessment training and enhancing the availability of surveillance data. Continuous efforts should be made to remove the financial and technical obstacles to improve the competences of risk assessment for public health emergency responders.

  6. Impact of Competing Risk of Mortality on Association of Weight Loss With Risk of Central Body Fractures in Older Men: A Prospective Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Ensrud, Kristine E; Harrison, Stephanie L; Cauley, Jane A; Langsetmo, Lisa; Schousboe, John T; Kado, Deborah M; Gourlay, Margaret L; Lyons, Jennifer G; Fredman, Lisa; Napoli, Nicolas; Crandall, Carolyn J; Lewis, Cora E; Orwoll, Eric S; Stefanick, Marcia L; Cawthon, Peggy M

    2017-03-01

    To determine the association of weight loss with risk of clinical fractures at the hip, spine, and pelvis (central body fractures [CBFs]) in older men with and without accounting for the competing risk of mortality, we used data from 4523 men (mean age 77.5 years). Weight change between baseline and follow-up (mean 4.5 years between examinations) was categorized as moderate loss (loss ≥10%), mild loss (loss 5% to <10%), stable (<5% change) or gain (gain ≥5%). Participants were contacted every 4 months after the follow-up examination to ascertain vital status (deaths verified by death certificates) and ask about fractures (confirmed by radiographic reports). Absolute probability of CBF by weight change category was estimated using traditional Kaplan-Meier method and cumulative incidence function accounting for competing mortality risk. Risk of CBF by weight change category was determined using conventional Cox proportional hazards regression and subdistribution hazards models with death as a competing risk. During an average of 8 years, 337 men (7.5%) experienced CBF and 1569 (34.7%) died before experiencing this outcome. Among men with moderate weight loss, CBF probability was 6.8% at 5 years and 16.9% at 10 years using Kaplan-Meier versus 5.7% at 5 years and 10.2% at 10 years using a competing risk approach. Men with moderate weight loss compared with those with stable weight had a 1.6-fold higher adjusted risk of CBF (HR 1.59; 95% CI, 1.06 to 2.38) using Cox models that was substantially attenuated in models accounting for competing mortality risk and no longer significant (subdistribution HR 1.16; 95% CI, 0.77 to 1.75). Results were similar in analyses substituting hip fracture for CBF. Older men with weight loss who survive are at increased risk of CBF, including hip fracture. However, ignoring the competing mortality risk among men with weight loss substantially overestimates their long-term fracture probability and relative fracture risk. © 2016 American

  7. Outcomes of Peritoneal Dialysis Patients and Switching to Hemodialysis: A Competing Risks Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Pajek, Jernej; Hutchison, Alastair J.; Bhutani, Shiv; Brenchley, Paul E.C.; Hurst, Helen; Perme, Maja Pohar; Summers, Angela M.; Vardhan, Anand

    2014-01-01

    ♦ Background: We performed a review of a large incident peritoneal dialysis cohort to establish the impact of current practice and that of switching to hemodialysis. ♦ Methods: Patients starting peritoneal dialysis between 2004 and 2010 were included and clinical data at start of dialysis recorded. Competing risk analysis and Cox proportional hazards model with time-varying covariate (technique failure) were used. ♦ Results: Of 286 patients (median age 57 years) followed for a median of 24.2 months, 76 were transplanted and 102 died. Outcome probabilities at 3 and 5 years respectively were 0.69 and 0.53 for patient survival (or transplantation) and 0.33 and 0.42 for technique failure. Peritonitis caused technique failure in 42%, but ultrafiltration failure accounted only for 6.3%. Davies comorbidity grade, creatinine and obesity (but not residual renal function or age) predicted technique failure. Due to peritonitis deaths, technique failure was an independent predictor of death hazard. When successful switch to hemodialysis (surviving more than 60 days after technique failure) and its timing were analyzed, no adverse impact on survival in adjusted analysis was found. However, hemodialysis via central venous line was associated with an elevated death hazard as compared to staying on peritoneal dialysis, or hemodialysis through a fistula (adjusted analysis hazard ratio 1.97 (1.02 - 3.80)). ♦ Conclusions: Once the patients survive the first 60 days after technique failure, the switch to hemodialysis does not adversely affect patient outcomes. The nature of vascular access has a significant impact on outcome after peritoneal dialysis failure. PMID:24497601

  8. Landmark risk prediction of residual life for breast cancer survival.

    PubMed

    Parast, Layla; Cai, Tianxi

    2013-09-10

    The importance of developing personalized risk prediction estimates has become increasingly evident in recent years. In general, patient populations may be heterogenous and represent a mixture of different unknown subtypes of disease. When the source of this heterogeneity and resulting subtypes of disease are unknown, accurate prediction of survival may be difficult. However, in certain disease settings, the onset time of an observable short-term event may be highly associated with these unknown subtypes of disease and thus may be useful in predicting long-term survival. One approach to incorporate short-term event information along with baseline markers for the prediction of long-term survival is through a landmark Cox model, which assumes a proportional hazards model for the residual life at a given landmark point. In this paper, we use this modeling framework to develop procedures to assess how a patient's long-term survival trajectory may change over time given good short-term outcome indications along with prognosis on the basis of baseline markers. We first propose time-varying accuracy measures to quantify the predictive performance of landmark prediction rules for residual life and provide resampling-based procedures to make inference about such accuracy measures. Simulation studies show that the proposed procedures perform well in finite samples. Throughout, we illustrate our proposed procedures by using a breast cancer dataset with information on time to metastasis and time to death. In addition to baseline clinical markers available for each patient, a chromosome instability genetic score, denoted by CIN25, is also available for each patient and has been shown to be predictive of survival for various types of cancer. We provide procedures to evaluate the incremental value of CIN25 for the prediction of residual life and examine how the residual life profile changes over time. This allows us to identify an informative landmark point, t(0) , such that

  9. Media influence on risk competence in self-medication and self-treatment

    PubMed Central

    Schweim, Harald; Ullmann, Marcela

    2015-01-01

    Media play an important role in the reception of health risks; thus, media competence is important for enhancing the risk competence of patients and consumers. In addition to life-long health education, risk competence particularly requires careful handling of health information because, at present, the key problem is not the lack of sufficient information on health topics but the quality of such information. Patients and consumers of health procedures and health products also require information which relates to their daily life and matches their life style. PMID:26195923

  10. Media influence on risk competence in self-medication and self-treatment.

    PubMed

    Schweim, Harald; Ullmann, Marcela

    2015-01-01

    Media play an important role in the reception of health risks; thus, media competence is important for enhancing the risk competence of patients and consumers. In addition to life-long health education, risk competence particularly requires careful handling of health information because, at present, the key problem is not the lack of sufficient information on health topics but the quality of such information. Patients and consumers of health procedures and health products also require information which relates to their daily life and matches their life style.

  11. Melanoma risk loci as determinants of melanoma recurrence and survival

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Steadily high melanoma mortality rates urge for the availability of novel biomarkers with a more personalized ability to predict melanoma clinical outcomes. Germline risk variants are promising candidates for this purpose; however, their prognostic potential in melanoma has never been systematically tested. Methods We examined the effect of 108 melanoma susceptibility single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), associated in recent GWAS with melanoma and melanoma-related phenotypes, on recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS), in 891 prospectively accrued melanoma patients. Cox proportional hazards models (Cox PH) were used to test the associations between 108 melanoma risk SNPs and RFS and OS adjusted by age at diagnosis, gender, tumor stage, histological subtype and other primary tumor characteristics. Results We identified significant associations for rs7538876 (RCC2) with RFS (HR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.20-1.83, p = 0.0005) and rs9960018 (DLGAP1) with both RFS and OS (HR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.07-1.91, p = 0.01, HR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.09-2.12, p = 0.01, respectively) using multivariable Cox PH models. In addition, we developed a logistic regression model that incorporates rs7538876, rs9960018, primary tumor histological type and stage at diagnosis that has an improved discriminatory ability to classify 3-year recurrence (AUC = 82%) compared to histological type and stage alone (AUC = 78%). Conclusions We identified associations between melanoma risk variants and melanoma outcomes. The significant associations observed for rs7538876 and rs9960018 suggest a biological implication of these loci in melanoma progression. The observed predictive patterns of associated variants with clinical end-points suggest for the first time the potential for utilization of genetic risk markers in melanoma prognostication. PMID:24188633

  12. Competing-risk analysis of ESRD and death among patients with type 1 diabetes and macroalbuminuria.

    PubMed

    Forsblom, Carol; Harjutsalo, Valma; Thorn, Lena M; Wadén, Johan; Tolonen, Nina; Saraheimo, Markku; Gordin, Daniel; Moran, John L; Thomas, Merlin C; Groop, Per-Henrik

    2011-03-01

    Patients with both type 1 diabetes and CKD have an increased risk of adverse outcomes. The competing risks of death and ESRD may confound the estimates of risk for each outcome. Here, we sought to determine the major predictors of the cumulative incidence of ESRD and pre-ESRD mortality in patients with type 1 diabetes and macroalbuminuria while incorporating the competing risk for the alternate outcome into a Fine-Gray competing-risks analysis. We followed 592 patients with macroalbuminuria for a median of 9.9 years. During this time, 56 (9.5%) patients died and 210 (35.5%) patients developed ESRD. Predictors of incident ESRD, taking baseline renal function and the competing risk for death into account, included an elevated HbA(1c), elevated LDL cholesterol, male sex, weight-adjusted insulin dose, and a shorter duration of diabetes. By contrast, predictors of pre-ESRD death, taking baseline renal function and the competing risk for ESRD into account, included only age, the presence of established macrovascular disease, and elevated cholesterol levels. This competing-risks approach has potential to highlight the appropriate targets and strategies for preventing premature mortality in patients with type 1 diabetes.

  13. Predicting Emotional and Social Competence during Early Childhood from Toddler Risk and Maternal Behavior

    PubMed Central

    Blandon, Alysia Y.; Calkins, Susan D.; Keane, Susan P.

    2010-01-01

    The longitudinal associations between maternal parenting behavior and toddler risk with children’s emotional and social competence were examined during the transition to kindergarten, in a sample of 253 children. Toddler risk was characterized by early externalizing behavior and poor emotion regulation skills. Given that we were interested in the multiple pathways that may result in emotional and social competence, we examined the interactions among maternal parenting behavior and toddler risk. There were some significant interactions; although the pattern of results was not consistent across all competence outcomes. Maternal parenting behavior was not directly associated with children’s emotional and social competence. In some instances, maternal control has differential implications for children’s emotional and social competence dependent upon the child’s level of early risk and maternal positive parenting. Specifically, maternal control tended to be more detrimental for children’s emotional competence during the transition to kindergarten, when children exhibit higher levels of risk. Overall, it appears that there are multiple developmental pathways, depending on child and maternal characteristics that lead to early emotional and social competence. PMID:20102651

  14. Melanoma risk and survival among organ transplant recipients

    PubMed Central

    Robbins, Hilary A.; Clarke, Christina A.; Arron, Sarah T.; Tatalovich, Zaria; Kahn, Amy R.; Hernandez, Brenda Y.; Paddock, Lisa; Yanik, Elizabeth L.; Lynch, Charles F.; Kasiske, Bertram L.; Snyder, Jon; Engels, Eric A.

    2015-01-01

    Solid organ transplant recipients, who are medically immunosuppressed to prevent graft rejection, have increased melanoma risk, but risk factors and outcomes are incompletely documented. We evaluated melanoma incidence among 139,991 non-Hispanic white transplants using linked U.S. transplant-cancer registry data (1987–2010). We used standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) to compare incidence to the general population, and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) from multivariable Poisson models to assess risk factors. Separately, we compared post-melanoma survival among transplant recipients (N=182) and non-recipients (N=131,358) using multivariable Cox models. Among transplant recipients, risk of invasive melanoma (N=519) was elevated (SIR=2.20, 95%CI 2.01-2.39), especially for regional stage tumors (SIR=4.11, 95%CI 3.27–5.09). Risk of localized tumors was stable over time after transplantation, but higher with azathioprine maintenance therapy (IRR=1.35, 95%CI 1.03–1.77). Risk of regional/distant stage tumors peaked within 4 years following transplantation and increased with polyclonal antibody induction therapy (IRR=1.65, 95%CI 1.02–2.67). Melanoma-specific mortality was higher among transplant recipients than non-recipients (HR 2.98, 95%CI 2.26–3.93). Melanoma exhibits increased incidence and aggressive behavior under transplant-related immunosuppression. Some localized melanomas may result from azathioprine, which acts synergistically with ultraviolet radiation, while T-cell depleting induction therapies may promote late stage tumors. Our findings support sun safety practices and skin screening for transplant recipients. PMID:26270022

  15. Melanoma Risk and Survival among Organ Transplant Recipients.

    PubMed

    Robbins, Hilary A; Clarke, Christina A; Arron, Sarah T; Tatalovich, Zaria; Kahn, Amy R; Hernandez, Brenda Y; Paddock, Lisa; Yanik, Elizabeth L; Lynch, Charles F; Kasiske, Bertram L; Snyder, Jon; Engels, Eric A

    2015-11-01

    Solid organ transplant recipients, who are medically immunosuppressed to prevent graft rejection, have increased melanoma risk, but risk factors and outcomes are incompletely documented. We evaluated melanoma incidence among 139,991 non-Hispanic white transplants using linked US transplant-cancer registry data (1987-2010). We used standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) to compare incidence with the general population and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) from multivariable Poisson models to assess risk factors. Separately, we compared post-melanoma survival among transplant recipients (n=182) and non-recipients (n=131,358) using multivariable Cox models. Among transplant recipients, risk of invasive melanoma (n=519) was elevated (SIR=2.20, 95% CI 2.01-2.39), especially for regional stage tumors (SIR=4.11, 95% CI 3.27-5.09). Risk of localized tumors was stable over time after transplantation but higher with azathioprine maintenance therapy (IRR=1.35, 95% CI 1.03-1.77). Risk of regional/distant stage tumors peaked within 4 years following transplantation and increased with polyclonal antibody induction therapy (IRR=1.65, 95% CI 1.02-2.67). Melanoma-specific mortality was higher among transplant recipients than non-recipients (hazard ratio 2.98, 95% CI 2.26-3.93). Melanoma exhibits increased incidence and aggressive behavior under transplant-related immunosuppression. Some localized melanomas may result from azathioprine, which acts synergistically with UV radiation, whereas T-cell-depleting induction therapies may promote late-stage tumors. Our findings support sun safety practices and skin screening for transplant recipients.

  16. The Fine–Gray Model Under Interval Censored Competing Risks Data

    PubMed Central

    Li, Chenxi

    2015-01-01

    We consider semiparametric analysis of competing risks data subject to mixed case interval censoring. The Fine–Gray model (Fine & Gray, 1999) is used to model the cumulative incidence function and is coupled with sieve semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation based on univariate or multivariate likelihood. The univariate likelihood of cause-specific data enables separate estimation of cumulative incidence function for each competing risk, in contrast with the multivariate likelihood of full data which estimates cumulative incidence functions for multiple competing risks jointly. Under both likelihoods and certain regularity conditions, we show that the regression parameter estimator is asymptotically normal and semiparametrically efficient, although the spline-based sieve estimator of the baseline cumulative subdistribution hazard converges at a rate slower than root-n. The proposed method is evaluated by simulation studies regarding its finite sample performance and is illustrated by a competing risk analysis of data from an dementia cohort study. PMID:26543275

  17. An approach to evaluating competence in assessing and managing violence risk.

    PubMed

    McNiel, Dale E; Hung, Erick K; Cramer, Robert J; Hall, Stephen E; Binder, Renee L

    2011-01-01

    The authors developed and evaluated a tool for assessing competency in violence risk assessment and management. The Competency Assessment Instrument for Violence Risk (CAI-V) was based on the literature on violence risk assessment, which was complemented by feedback from faculty focus groups. In an objective structured clinical examination, 31 faculty observers used the CAI-V to rate the performance of 31 learners' (26 psychiatry residents and five psychology interns) risk assessments of standardized (simulated) patients. In an interrater reliability study, six faculty members rated video-recorded risk assessments. The CAI-V had good internal consistency reliability (α=.93). Senior learners performed better on the CAI-V than junior learners, supporting the instrument's concurrent validity. Interrater reliability was good (intraclass correlation coefficient=.93). Participants reported that the CAI-V provided a helpful structure for feedback and supervision. The results supported the potential of this new approach for appraising competency in violence risk assessment and management.

  18. Suicide Risk Assessment Training for Psychology Doctoral Programs: Core Competencies and a Framework for Training.

    PubMed

    Cramer, Robert J; Johnson, Shara M; McLaughlin, Jennifer; Rausch, Emilie M; Conroy, Mary Alice

    2013-02-01

    Clinical and counseling psychology programs currently lack adequate evidence-based competency goals and training in suicide risk assessment. To begin to address this problem, this article proposes core competencies and an integrated training framework that can form the basis for training and research in this area. First, we evaluate the extent to which current training is effective in preparing trainees for suicide risk assessment. Within this discussion, sample and methodological issues are reviewed. Second, as an extension of these methodological training issues, we integrate empirically- and expert-derived suicide risk assessment competencies from several sources with the goal of streamlining core competencies for training purposes. Finally, a framework for suicide risk assessment training is outlined. The approach employs Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) methodology, an approach commonly utilized in medical competency training. The training modality also proposes the Suicide Competency Assessment Form (SCAF), a training tool evaluating self- and observer-ratings of trainee core competencies. The training framework and SCAF are ripe for empirical evaluation and potential training implementation.

  19. Suicide Risk Assessment Training for Psychology Doctoral Programs: Core Competencies and a Framework for Training

    PubMed Central

    Cramer, Robert J.; Johnson, Shara M.; McLaughlin, Jennifer; Rausch, Emilie M.; Conroy, Mary Alice

    2014-01-01

    Clinical and counseling psychology programs currently lack adequate evidence-based competency goals and training in suicide risk assessment. To begin to address this problem, this article proposes core competencies and an integrated training framework that can form the basis for training and research in this area. First, we evaluate the extent to which current training is effective in preparing trainees for suicide risk assessment. Within this discussion, sample and methodological issues are reviewed. Second, as an extension of these methodological training issues, we integrate empirically- and expert-derived suicide risk assessment competencies from several sources with the goal of streamlining core competencies for training purposes. Finally, a framework for suicide risk assessment training is outlined. The approach employs Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) methodology, an approach commonly utilized in medical competency training. The training modality also proposes the Suicide Competency Assessment Form (SCAF), a training tool evaluating self- and observer-ratings of trainee core competencies. The training framework and SCAF are ripe for empirical evaluation and potential training implementation. PMID:24672588

  20. Development of Instructional Competencies for Assessing and Managing Suicide Risk for Baccalaureate Nursing Education: A Modified Delphi Study.

    PubMed

    Kotowski, Abigail; Roye, Carol

    2017-03-01

    Suicide is a major health problem and a leading cause of death throughout the world. A primary goal for suicide prevention is reforming health professional education in order to increase the competence of health professionals in assessing and managing suicide risk. Nursing leadership is involved in this reform, yet nurses frequently lack the competence to care for patients in suicidal crisis. An identified gap in baccalaureate nursing education is instructional competencies for assessing and managing suicide risk. A modified Delphi study was used. The study began with a focus group which was conducted in order to develop the Round I Survey which included forty-four competencies. After scoring these competencies, thirty-four were scored for inclusion, two were dropped and eight were revised according to panel members' comments. The Round II Survey comprised the eight revised competencies which were scored for inclusion, resulting in forty-two competencies in the final set of instructional competencies. Forty-two instructional competencies were developed: fourteen pre-assessment instructional competencies, fifteen assessment instructional competencies, and thirteen management instructional competencies. Incorporating these instructional competencies into baccalaureate nursing education might increase the competence of nursing students, and thus new nurses, in caring for patients at risk for suicide. These instructional competencies provide a first step to address the challenging task of intervening with patients at risk for suicide.

  1. Competency-Based Teacher Education: What Has Survived in New York.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wendel, Egon O.

    1982-01-01

    Teacher education programs in 63 New York state colleges and universities were surveyed to determine which elements of competency-based teacher education have been adopted and the degree of participant satisfaction. Results reveal that concepts such as mastery learning, criterion-referenced assessment, and performance-based measures that evaluate…

  2. Association of Breast Cancer Risk loci with Breast Cancer Survival

    PubMed Central

    Barrdahl, Myrto; Canzian, Federico; Lindström, Sara; Shui, Irene; Black, Amanda; Hoover, Robert N.; Ziegler, Regina G.; Buring, Julie E.; Chanock, Stephen J.; Diver, W. Ryan; Gapstur, Susan M.; Gaudet, Mia M.; Giles, Graham G.; Haiman, Christopher; Henderson, Brian E.; Hankinson, Susan; Hunter, David J.; Joshi, Amit D.; Kraft, Peter; Lee, I-Min; Le Marchand, Loic; Milne, Roger L.; Southey, Melissa C.; Willett, Walter; Gunter, Marc; Panico, Salvatore; Sund, Malin; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Sánchez, María-José; Overvad, Kim; Dossus, Laure; Peeters, Petra H; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Kaaks, Rudolf; Campa, Daniele

    2015-01-01

    The survival of breast cancer patients is largely influenced by tumor characteristics, such as TNM stage, tumor grade and hormone receptor status. However, there is growing evidence that inherited genetic variation might affect the disease prognosis and response to treatment. Several lines of evidence suggest that alleles influencing breast cancer risk might also be associated with breast cancer survival. We examined the associations between 35 breast cancer susceptibility loci and the disease over-all survival (OS) in 10,255 breast cancer patients from the National Cancer Institute Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium (BPC3) of which 1,379 died, including 754 of breast cancer. We also conducted a meta-analysis of almost 35,000 patients and 5,000 deaths, combining results from BPC3 and the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) and performed in silico analyses of SNPs with significant associations. In BPC3, the C allele of LSP1-rs3817198 was significantly associated with improved OS (HRper-allele=0.70; 95% CI: 0.58–0.85; Ptrend=2.84×10−4; HRheterozygotes=0.71; 95% CI: 0.55–0.92; HRhomozygotes=0.48; 95% CI: 0.31–0.76; P2DF=1.45×10−3). In silico, the C allele of LSP1-rs3817198 was predicted to increase expression of the tumor suppressor cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 1C (CDKN1C). In the meta-analysis, TNRC9-rs3803662 was significantly associated with increased death hazard (HRMETA =1.09; 95% CI: 1.04–1.15; Ptrend=6.6×10−4; HRheterozygotes=0.96 95% CI: 0.90–1.03; HRhomozygotes= 1.21; 95% CI: 1.09–1.35; P2DF=1.25×10−4). In conclusion, we show that there is little overlap between the breast cancer risk single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified so far and the SNPs associated with breast cancer prognosis, with the possible exceptions of LSP1-rs3817198 and TNRC9-rs3803662. PMID:25611573

  3. Advantage of the modified Lunn-McNeil technique over Kalbfleisch-Prentice technique in competing risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lukman, Iing; Ibrahim, Noor A.; Daud, Isa B.; Maarof, Fauziah; Hassan, Mohd N.

    2002-03-01

    Survival analysis algorithm is often applied in the data mining process. Cox regression is one of the survival analysis tools that has been used in many areas, and it can be used to analyze the failure times of aircraft crashed. Another survival analysis tool is the competing risks where we have more than one cause of failure acting simultaneously. Lunn-McNeil analyzed the competing risks in the survival model using Cox regression with censored data. The modified Lunn-McNeil technique is a simplify of the Lunn-McNeil technique. The Kalbfleisch-Prentice technique is involving fitting models separately from each type of failure, treating other failure types as censored. To compare the two techniques, (the modified Lunn-McNeil and Kalbfleisch-Prentice) a simulation study was performed. Samples with various sizes and censoring percentages were generated and fitted using both techniques. The study was conducted by comparing the inference of models, using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), the power tests, and the Schoenfeld residual analysis. The power tests in this study were likelihood ratio test, Rao-score test, and Wald statistics. The Schoenfeld residual analysis was conducted to check the proportionality of the model through its covariates. The estimated parameters were computed for the cause-specific hazard situation. Results showed that the modified Lunn-McNeil technique was better than the Kalbfleisch-Prentice technique based on the RMSE measurement and Schoenfeld residual analysis. However, the Kalbfleisch-Prentice technique was better than the modified Lunn-McNeil technique based on power tests measurement.

  4. Prognostic factors and impact of adjuvant treatments on local and metastatic relapse of soft-tissue sarcoma patients in the competing risks setting.

    PubMed

    Italiano, Antoine; Le Cesne, Axel; Mendiboure, Jean; Blay, Jean-Yves; Piperno-Neumann, Sophie; Chevreau, Christine; Delcambre, Corinne; Penel, Nicolas; Terrier, Philippe; Ranchere-Vince, Dominique; Lae, Marick; Le Guellec, Sophie; Michels, Jean-Jacques; Robin, Yves Marie; Bellera, Carine; Bonvalot, Sylvie

    2014-11-01

    In the medical literature many analyses of outcomes of sarcoma patients were performed without regard to the problem of "competing risks." We analyzed local relapse-free and metastasis-free survival in a population of 3255 adult patients with a primary soft-tissue sarcoma (STS) included in the French Sarcoma Group database. Cumulative incidence of local and metastatic relapse was estimated by accounting for death as a competing event. On multivariate analysis, age, tumor site, histological subtype, and grade were independent adverse prognostic factors for local relapse, whereas tumor depth and size had no influence. Histological subtype, tumor depth, tumor size, and grade were independent adverse prognostic factors for metastatic relapse. Despite a higher incidence of competing deaths in patients managed with adjuvant radiotherapy than in patients not receiving radiotherapy, adjuvant radiotherapy was associated with a significant benefit in terms of local relapse-free survival. Despite a similar cumulative incidence of competing deaths in patients with grade 2 and grade 3 disease, we found that the benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy was present only in patients with grade 3 and not in patients with grade 2 disease. In the setting of competing risks, tumor biology reflected by histological grade is a crucial predictor of local relapse, whereas tumor depth and size have poor if any influence. Grade could also predict the benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with STS. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

  5. Regression analysis for cumulative incidence probability under competing risks and left-truncated sampling.

    PubMed

    Shen, Pao-sheng

    2012-01-01

    The cumulative incidence function provides intuitive summary information about competing risks data. Via a mixture decomposition of this function, Chang and Wang (Statist. Sinca 19:391-408, 2009) study how covariates affect the cumulative incidence probability of a particular failure type at a chosen time point. Without specifying the corresponding failure time distribution, they proposed two estimators and derived their large sample properties. The first estimator utilized the technique of weighting to adjust for the censoring bias, and can be considered as an extension of Fine's method (J R Stat Soc Ser B 61: 817-830, 1999). The second used imputation and extends the idea of Wang (J R Stat Soc Ser B 65: 921-935, 2003) from a nonparametric setting to the current regression framework. In this article, when covariates take only discrete values, we extend both approaches of Chang and Wang (Statist Sinca 19:391-408, 2009) by allowing left truncation. Large sample properties of the proposed estimators are derived, and their finite sample performance is investigated through a simulation study. We also apply our methods to heart transplant survival data.

  6. Contextual Risk and Parenting as Predictors of Effortful Control and Social Competence in Preschool Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lengua, Liliana J.; Honorado, Elizabeth; Bush, Nicole R.

    2007-01-01

    Using a short-term longitudinal design (6 months), this study examined cumulative contextual risk as a predictor of effortful control (EC) and social competence in a community sample of children (N = 80, ages 33-40 months at time 1). Maternal parenting was examined as a mediator of contextual risk. EC was assessed using laboratory tasks, and…

  7. Core Competencies and the Prevention of High-Risk Sexual Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Charles, Vignetta Eugenia; Blum, Robert Wm.

    2008-01-01

    Adolescent sexual risk-taking behavior has numerous individual, family, community, and societal consequences. In an effort to contribute to the research and propose new directions, this chapter applies the core competencies framework to the prevention of high-risk sexual behavior. It describes the magnitude of the problem, summarizes explanatory…

  8. Core Competencies and the Prevention of High-Risk Sexual Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Charles, Vignetta Eugenia; Blum, Robert Wm.

    2008-01-01

    Adolescent sexual risk-taking behavior has numerous individual, family, community, and societal consequences. In an effort to contribute to the research and propose new directions, this chapter applies the core competencies framework to the prevention of high-risk sexual behavior. It describes the magnitude of the problem, summarizes explanatory…

  9. The competing risks illness-death model under cross-sectional sampling.

    PubMed

    Mandel, Micha

    2010-04-01

    The competing risks illness-death model describes the dynamics of healthy subjects who may move to an "illness" state before entering into one of several competing terminal states. A motivating example concerns patients in a hospital who may acquire infections during their stay, where the competing terminal states are discharged alive and death in the hospital. We consider a cross-sectional sampling of independent competing risks illness-death processes in which data are subject to length bias and censoring and develop estimators for functionals of the underlying distribution such as the joint probability of the terminal state and illness (infection) and cumulative incidence functions. We apply the methodology to infection data obtained in a cross-sectional study of patients hospitalized in intensive care units.

  10. Elderly Peritoneal Dialysis Compared with Elderly Hemodialysis Patients and Younger Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: Competing Risk Analysis of a Korean Prospective Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Hyunsuk; An, Jung Nam; Kim, Dong Ki; Kim, Myoung-Hee; Kim, Ho; Kim, Yong-Lim; Park, Ki Soo; Oh, Yun Kyu; Lim, Chun Soo; Kim, Yon Su; Lee, Jung Pyo

    2015-01-01

    The outcomes of peritoneal dialysis (PD) in elderly patients have not been thoroughly investigated. We aimed to investigate the clinical outcomes and risk factors associated with PD in elderly patients. We conducted a prospective observational nationwide adult end-stage renal disease (ESRD) cohort study in Korea from August 2008 to March 2013. Among incident patients (n = 830), patient and technical survival rate, quality of life, and Beck’s Depression Inventory (BDI) scores of elderly PD patients (≥65 years, n = 95) were compared with those of PD patients aged ≤49 years (n = 205) and 50~64 years (n = 192); and elderly hemodialysis (HD) patients (n = 315). The patient death and technical failure were analyzed by cumulative incidence function. Competing risk regressions were used to assess the risk factors for survival. The patient survival rate of elderly PD patients was inferior to that of younger PD patients (P<0.001). However, the technical survival rate was similar (P = 0.097). Compared with elderly HD patients, the patient survival rate did not differ according to dialysis modality (P = 0.987). Elderly PD patients showed significant improvement in the BDI scores, as compared with the PD patients aged ≤49 years (P = 0.003). Low albumin, diabetes and low residual renal function were significant risk factors for the PD patient survival; and peritonitis was a significant risk factor for technical survival. Furthermore, low albumin and hospitalization were significant risk factors of patient survival among the elderly. The overall outcomes were similar between elderly PD and HD patients. PD showed the benefit in BDI and quality of life in the elderly. Additionally, the technical survival rate of elderly PD patients was similar to that of younger PD patients. Taken together, PD may be a comparable modality for elderly ESRD patients. PMID:26121574

  11. Development and evaluation of the "BRISK Scale," a brief observational measure of risk communication competence.

    PubMed

    Han, Paul K J; Joekes, Katherine; Mills, Greg; Gutheil, Caitlin; Smith, Kahsi; Cochran, Nancy E; Elwyn, Glyn

    2016-12-01

    To develop and evaluate a brief observational measure of clinical risk communication competence. A 4-item checklist-type measure, the BRISK (Brief Risk Information Skill) Scale, was developed by selecting and refining items from a more comprehensive measure of clinical risk communication competence. Six volunteer raters received brief training on the measure and then used the BRISK Scale to evaluate 52 video-recorded encounters between 2nd-year medical students and standardized patients conducted as part of an Observed Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) involving a risk communication task. Internal consistency reliability, inter-rater reliability, and criterion validity were assessed. Raters reported no difficulties using the BRISK Scale; scores across all raters and subjects ranged from 0 to 16 with a mean score of 6.49 (SD=3.17). The BRISK Scale showed good internal consistency reliability (α=0.64), and inter-rater reliability at the scale level (Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC)=0.79 for consistency, and 0.75 for absolute agreement) and individual-item level (ICC range: 0.62-.91). Novice raters' BRISK Scale scores were highly correlated (r=0.84, p<0.01) with expert raters' scores on the Risk Communication Content measure, a more comprehensive measure of risk communication competence. The BRISK Scale is a promising new brief observational measure of clinical risk communication competence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Students "At-Risk" Policy: Competing Social and Economic Discourses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mosen-Lowe, Linda Audrey Joy; Vidovich, Lesley; Chapman, Anne

    2009-01-01

    Within a context of global reform agendas that promote economic ideologies in education the discourses surrounding "school failure" have shifted from "individual risk" to "a nation at-risk". Enhancing the quality of schooling through improving educational outcomes and standards for all, and thereby reducing…

  13. Students "At-Risk" Policy: Competing Social and Economic Discourses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mosen-Lowe, Linda Audrey Joy; Vidovich, Lesley; Chapman, Anne

    2009-01-01

    Within a context of global reform agendas that promote economic ideologies in education the discourses surrounding "school failure" have shifted from "individual risk" to "a nation at-risk". Enhancing the quality of schooling through improving educational outcomes and standards for all, and thereby reducing…

  14. The effects of misclassification of the actual cause of death in competing risks analysis.

    PubMed

    Ebrahimi, N

    1996-07-30

    The problem of competing risks analysis arises often in public health, demography, actuarial science, industrial reliability applications, and experiments in medical therapeutics. In the classical competing risks scenario one models the risks with a vector (T = (T1, ..., Tk) of non-negative random variables that represents the potential times to death of k risks. One cannot see T directly but sees instead Y = min (T1, ..., Tk) and the actual cause of death. The major difficulty with this analysis is the requirement for the expert to specify the single cause of death that, in fact, may not be the actual cause. This paper addresses competing risks analysis for the situations where one observes Y and the set of several possible causes of death specified by the expert. Many times there are several causes that act together and realistically it is impossible for the expert to assign a death to a single cause. In particular, I provide a likelihood for parametric competing risks analysis when the actual cause of death is possibly misclassified. The data include time to death, Y, and a set of possible causes of death. If misclassification probabilities are unknown, I propose a Baysian analysis based on a prior distribution for the parameters of interest and for the misclassification probabilities.

  15. Do Health Professionals Need Additional Competencies for Stratified Cancer Prevention Based on Genetic Risk Profiling?

    PubMed Central

    Chowdhury, Susmita; Henneman, Lidewij; Dent, Tom; Hall, Alison; Burton, Alice; Pharoah, Paul; Pashayan, Nora; Burton, Hilary

    2015-01-01

    There is growing evidence that inclusion of genetic information about known common susceptibility variants may enable population risk-stratification and personalized prevention for common diseases including cancer. This would require the inclusion of genetic testing as an integral part of individual risk assessment of an asymptomatic individual. Front line health professionals would be expected to interact with and assist asymptomatic individuals through the risk stratification process. In that case, additional knowledge and skills may be needed. Current guidelines and frameworks for genetic competencies of non-specialist health professionals place an emphasis on rare inherited genetic diseases. For common diseases, health professionals do use risk assessment tools but such tools currently do not assess genetic susceptibility of individuals. In this article, we compare the skills and knowledge needed by non-genetic health professionals, if risk-stratified prevention is implemented, with existing competence recommendations from the UK, USA and Europe, in order to assess the gaps in current competences. We found that health professionals would benefit from understanding the contribution of common genetic variations in disease risk, the rationale for a risk-stratified prevention pathway, and the implications of using genomic information in risk-assessment and risk management of asymptomatic individuals for common disease prevention. PMID:26068647

  16. Do Health Professionals Need Additional Competencies for Stratified Cancer Prevention Based on Genetic Risk Profiling?

    PubMed

    Chowdhury, Susmita; Henneman, Lidewij; Dent, Tom; Hall, Alison; Burton, Alice; Pharoah, Paul; Pashayan, Nora; Burton, Hilary

    2015-06-09

    There is growing evidence that inclusion of genetic information about known common susceptibility variants may enable population risk-stratification and personalized prevention for common diseases including cancer. This would require the inclusion of genetic testing as an integral part of individual risk assessment of an asymptomatic individual. Front line health professionals would be expected to interact with and assist asymptomatic individuals through the risk stratification process. In that case, additional knowledge and skills may be needed. Current guidelines and frameworks for genetic competencies of non-specialist health professionals place an emphasis on rare inherited genetic diseases. For common diseases, health professionals do use risk assessment tools but such tools currently do not assess genetic susceptibility of individuals. In this article, we compare the skills and knowledge needed by non-genetic health professionals, if risk-stratified prevention is implemented, with existing competence recommendations from the UK, USA and Europe, in order to assess the gaps in current competences. We found that health professionals would benefit from understanding the contribution of common genetic variations in disease risk, the rationale for a risk-stratified prevention pathway, and the implications of using genomic information in risk-assessment and risk management of asymptomatic individuals for common disease prevention.

  17. Self-criticism of physicians, patient participation and risk competence.

    PubMed

    Wolffsohn, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Self-criticism of physicians and patient participation are the pillars of modern medical ethics and medical programmes. Patients expect risk minimisation from physicians, mostly without realising how much they could actively do themselves in this respect. But what about the willingness of German people to take risks, how high is it really at present? Direct empirical data are not available, but results from general empirical research show that people's willingness to take risks is probably rather low. Post-heroic societies of welfare states are less likely to take risks than supposedly heroic ones. Therefore, the question whether it is responsible for medical experts to transfer even more responsibility to non-medical laypeople becomes increasingly important in a social context.

  18. Self-criticism of physicians, patient participation and risk competence

    PubMed Central

    Wolffsohn, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Self-criticism of physicians and patient participation are the pillars of modern medical ethics and medical programmes. Patients expect risk minimisation from physicians, mostly without realising how much they could actively do themselves in this respect. But what about the willingness of German people to take risks, how high is it really at present? Direct empirical data are not available, but results from general empirical research show that people’s willingness to take risks is probably rather low. Post-heroic societies of welfare states are less likely to take risks than supposedly heroic ones. Therefore, the question whether it is responsible for medical experts to transfer even more responsibility to non-medical laypeople becomes increasingly important in a social context. PMID:26195919

  19. Statistical analysis of dependent competing risks model from Gompertz distribution under progressively hybrid censoring.

    PubMed

    Shi, Yimin; Wu, Min

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies have mostly considered the competing risks to be independent even when the interpretation of the failure modes implies dependency. This paper studies the dependent competing risks model from Gompertz distribution under Type-I progressively hybrid censoring scheme. We derive the maximum likelihood estimations of the model parameters, and then the asymptotic likelihood theory and Bootstrap method are used to obtain the confidence intervals. The simulation results are provided to investigate the effects of different dependence structures on the estimations of parameters. Finally, one data set was used for illustrative purpose.

  20. Are women as likely to take risks and compete? Behavioural findings from central Vietnam.

    PubMed

    Fletschner, Diana; Anderson, C Leigh; Cullen, Alison

    2010-01-01

    Using controlled experiments to compare the risk attitude and willingness to compete of husbands and wives in 500 couples in rural Vietnam, we find that women are more risk averse than men and that, compared to men, women are less likely to choose to compete, irrespective of how likely they are to succeed. Relevant to development programmes concerned with lifting women out of poverty, our findings suggest that women may be more reluctant to adopt new technologies, take out loans, or engage in economic activities that offer higher expected returns, in order to avoid setups that require them to be more competitive or that have less predictable outcomes.

  1. Trustworthy patient decision aids: a qualitative analysis addressing the risk of competing interests

    PubMed Central

    Elwyn, Glyn; Dannenberg, Michelle; Blaine, Arianna; Poddar, Urbashi; Durand, Marie-Anne

    2016-01-01

    Objective Our aim in this study was to examine the competing interest policies and procedures of organisations who develop and maintain patient decision aids. Design Descriptive and thematic analysis of data collected from a cross-sectional survey of patient decision aid developer's competing interest policies and disclosure forms. Results We contacted 25 organisations likely to meet the inclusion criteria. 12 eligible organisations provided data. 11 organisations did not reply and 2 declined to participate. Most patient decision aid developers recognise the need to consider the issue of competing interests. Assessment processes vary widely and, for the most part, are insufficiently robust to minimise the risk of competing interests. Only half of the 12 organisations had competing interest policies. Some considered disclosure to be sufficient, while others imposed differing levels of exclusion. Conclusions Patient decision aid developers do not have a consistent approach to managing competing interests. Some have developed policies and procedures, while others pay no attention to the issue. As is the case for clinical practice guidelines, increasing attention will need to be given to how the competing interests of contributors of evidence-based publications may influence materials, especially if they are designed for patient use. PMID:27612542

  2. Reversible Disassembly of the Actin Cytoskeleton Improves the Survival Rate and Developmental Competence of Cryopreserved Mouse Oocytes

    PubMed Central

    Hosu, Basarab G.; Mullen, Steven F.; Critser, John K.; Forgacs, Gabor

    2008-01-01

    Effective cryopreservation of oocytes is critically needed in many areas of human reproductive medicine and basic science, such as stem cell research. Currently, oocyte cryopreservation has a low success rate. The goal of this study was to understand the mechanisms associated with oocyte cryopreservation through biophysical means using a mouse model. Specifically, we experimentally investigated the biomechanical properties of the ooplasm prior and after cryopreservation as well as the consequences of reversible dismantling of the F-actin network in mouse oocytes prior to freezing. The study was complemented with the evaluation of post-thaw developmental competence of oocytes after in vitro fertilization. Our results show that the freezing-thawing process markedly alters the physiological viscoelastic properties of the actin cytoskeleton. The reversible depolymerization of the F-actin network prior to freezing preserves normal ooplasm viscoelastic properties, results in high post-thaw survival and significantly improves developmental competence. These findings provide new information on the biophysical characteristics of mammalian oocytes, identify a pathophysiological mechanism underlying cryodamage and suggest a novel cryopreservation method. PMID:18665248

  3. Criteria for use of composite end points for competing risks-a systematic survey of the literature with recommendations.

    PubMed

    Manja, Veena; AlBashir, Siwar; Guyatt, Gordon

    2017-02-01

    Composite end points are frequently used in reports of clinical trials. One rationale for the use of composite end points is to account for competing risks. In the presence of competing risks, the event rate of a specific event depends on the rates of other competing events. One proposed solution is to include all important competing events in one composite end point. Clinical trialists require guidance regarding when this approach is appropriate. To identify publications describing criteria for use of composite end points for competing risk and to offer guidance regarding when a composite end point is appropriate on the basis of competing risks. We searched MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE, The Cochrane's Central & Systematic Review databases including the Health Technology Assessment database, and the Cochrane's Methodology register from inception to April 2015, and candidate textbooks, to identify all articles providing guidance on this issue. Eligible publications explicitly addressed the issue of a composite outcome to address competing risks. Two reviewers independently screened the titles and abstracts for full-text review; independently reviewed full-text publications; and abstracted specific criteria authors offered for use of composite end points to address competing risks. Of 63,645 titles and abstracts, 166 proved potentially relevant of which 43 publications were included in the final review. Most publications note competing risks as a reason for using composite end points without further elaboration. None of the articles or textbook chapters provide specific criteria for use of composite end points for competing risk. Some advocate using composite end points to avoid bias due to competing risks and others suggest that composite end points seldom or never be used for this purpose. We recommend using composite end points for competing risks only if the competing risk is plausible and if it occurs with sufficiently high frequency to influence the interpretation

  4. Predictors of progression to chronic dialysis in survivors of severe acute kidney injury: a competing risk study

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Survivors of acute kidney injury are at an increased risk of developing irreversible deterioration in kidney function and in some cases, the need for chronic dialysis. We aimed to determine predictors of chronic dialysis and death among survivors of dialysis-requiring acute kidney injury. Methods We used linked administrative databases in Ontario, Canada, to identify patients who were discharged from hospital after an episode of acute kidney injury requiring dialysis and remained free of further dialysis for at least 90 days after discharge between 1996 and 2009. Follow-up extended until March 31, 2011. The primary outcome was progression to chronic dialysis. Predictors for this outcome were evaluated using cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models, and a competing risk approach was used to calculate absolute risk. Results We identified 4 383 patients with acute kidney injury requiring temporary in-hospital dialysis who survived to discharge. After a mean follow-up of 2.4 years, 356 (8%) patients initiated chronic dialysis and 1475 (34%) died. The cumulative risk of chronic dialysis was 13.5% by the Kaplan-Meier method, and 10.3% using a competing risk approach. After accounting for the competing risk of death, previous nephrology consultation (subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) 2.03; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.61-2.58), a history of chronic kidney disease (sHR3.86; 95% CI 2.99-4.98), a higher Charlson comorbidity index score (sHR 1.10; 95% CI 1.05-1.15/per unit) and pre-existing hypertension (sHR 1.82; 95% CI 1.28-2.58) were significantly associated with an increased risk of progression to chronic dialysis. Conclusions Among survivors of dialysis-requiring acute kidney injury who initially become dialysis independent, the subsequent need for chronic dialysis is predicted by pre-existing kidney disease, hypertension and global comorbidity. This information can identify patients at high risk of progressive kidney disease who may benefit from

  5. Survival of high-risk pediatric neuroblastoma patients in a developing country.

    PubMed

    Easton, Joseph C; Gomez, Sergio; Asdahl, Peter H; Conner, J Michael; Fynn, Alcira B; Ruiz, Claudia; Ojha, Rohit P

    2016-09-01

    Little information is available about survival of high-risk pediatric neuroblastoma patients in developing countries. We aimed to assess survival among high-risk pediatric neuroblastoma patients in La Plata, Argentina. Individuals eligible for our cohort were aged <20 yr when diagnosed with high-risk neuroblastoma and received cancer-directed therapy including stem cell transplantation at Hospital de Niños Sor Maria Ludovica between February 1999 and February 2015. We estimated overall survival probabilities using an extended Kaplan-Meier approach. Our study population comprised 39 high-risk neuroblastoma patients, of whom 39% were aged >4 yr at diagnosis, 54% were male, and 62% had adrenal neuroblastoma. We observed 18 deaths, and the median survival time of our study population was 1.7 yr. The five-yr overall survival probability was 24% (95% CL: 10%, 41%). In contrast, five-yr survival of high-risk neuroblastoma patients ranges between 23% and 76% in developed countries. Survival among high-risk neuroblastoma patients is generally poor regardless of geographic location, but our results illustrate dramatically worse survival for patients in a developing country. We speculate that the observed survival differences could be attenuated or eliminated with improvements in treatment and supportive care, but addressing these issues will require creative solutions because of resource limitations.

  6. Parametric mixture models to evaluate and summarize hazard ratios in the presence of competing risks with time-dependent hazards and delayed entry

    PubMed Central

    Lau, Bryan; Cole, Stephen R.; Gange, Stephen J.

    2010-01-01

    In the analysis of survival data, there are often competing events that preclude an event of interest from occurring. Regression analysis with competing risks is typically undertaken using a cause-specific proportional hazards model. However, modern alternative methods exist for the analysis of the subdistribution hazard with a corresponding subdistribution proportional hazards model. In this paper, we introduce a flexible parametric mixture model as a unifying method to obtain estimates of the cause-specific and subdistribution hazards and hazard ratio functions. We describe how these estimates can be summarized over time to give a single number that is comparable to the hazard ratio that is obtained from a corresponding cause-specific or subdistribution proportional hazards model. An application to the Women’s Interagency HIV Study is provided to investigate injection drug use and the time to either the initiation of effective antiretroviral therapy, or clinical disease progression as a competing event. PMID:21337360

  7. Competing with giants. Survival strategies for local companies in emerging markets.

    PubMed

    Dawar, N; Frost, T

    1999-01-01

    The arrival of a multinational corporation often looks like a death sentence to local companies in an emerging market. After all, how can they compete in the face of the vast financial and technological resources, the seasoned management, and the powerful brands of, say, a Compaq or a Johnson & Johnson? But local companies often have more options than they might think, say the authors. Those options vary, depending on the strength of globalization pressures in an industry and the nature of a company's competitive assets. In the worst case, when globalization pressures are strong and a company has no competitive assets that it can transfer to other countries, it needs to retreat to a locally oriented link within the value chain. But if globalization pressures are weak, the company may be able to defend its market share by leveraging the advantages it enjoys in its home market. Many companies in emerging markets have assets that can work well in other countries. Those that operate in industries where the pressures to globalize are weak may be able to extend their success to a limited number of other markets that are similar to their home base. And those operating in global markets may be able to contend head-on with multinational rivals. By better understanding the relationship between their company's assets and the industry they operate in, executives from emerging markets can gain a clearer picture of the options they really have when multinationals come to stay.

  8. Impact of treatment variability on survival in immuno-competent and immuno-compromised patients with primary central nervous lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Karmali, Reem; Nabhan, Chadi; Petrich, Adam M; Raizer, Jeffrey; Peace, David; Lukas, Rimas; Gordon, Leo I; Basu, Sanjib; Chukkapalli, Vineela; Venugopal, Parameswaran

    2017-02-17

    Patients with primary central nervous system lymphoma (PCNSL) treated in the 'real-world' setting do not represent those treated on clinical trials and might not be treated similarly. We studied characteristics and variability in care for 113 newly diagnosed PCNSL patients treated at 5 institutions in the Chicago area between 2000 and 2012. In 111 patients, single modality therapy with a high dose methotrexate (HD-MTX) regimen +/- rituximab, was most commonly employed (n = 65), and 34 underwent radiotherapy (+/- systemic therapy). Fifty-eight of 108 patients received rituximab. Twenty-nine of 110 patients (26%) received intrathecal chemotherapy (ITC). Overall response rate was 80% (47% complete responses). With a median follow-up of 18·7 months, median overall survival (OS) was 65·2 months. In univariate analysis, HD-MTX (median OS 72·7 vs. 2·7 months, P < 0·001) and rituximab (median not reached versus 28·4 months, P = 0·005) impacted OS favourably. This significance was sustained regardless of immune status and in multivariate analysis. Whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) resulted in a trend for improved OS as compared with systemic therapy alone (P = 0·09), while ITC did not impact survival. Clinical practice has evolved to exclude WBRT and ITC while incorporating rituximab with clinical outcomes comparable in immuno-competent/compromised patients and similar to those achieved in recent clinical trials.

  9. Later Competence and Adaptation in Infants Who Survive Severe Heart Defects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Dougherty, Margaret; And Others

    1983-01-01

    Describes a model of risk potential for developmental outcome that was based on cardiac, medical, surgical, and family stress factors in 31 children with transposition of the great arteries. All children had undergone reparative open heart surgery utilizing cardiopulmonary bypass during infancy. (Author/RH)

  10. Later Competence and Adaptation in Infants Who Survive Severe Heart Defects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Dougherty, Margaret; And Others

    1983-01-01

    Describes a model of risk potential for developmental outcome that was based on cardiac, medical, surgical, and family stress factors in 31 children with transposition of the great arteries. All children had undergone reparative open heart surgery utilizing cardiopulmonary bypass during infancy. (Author/RH)

  11. Contextual risk and parenting as predictors of effortful control and social competence in preschool children.

    PubMed

    Lengua, Liliana J; Honorado, Elizabeth; Bush, Nicole R

    2007-01-01

    Using a short-term longitudinal design (6 months), this study examined cumulative contextual risk as a predictor of effortful control (EC) and social competence in a community sample of children (N = 80, ages 33-40 months at time 1). Maternal parenting was examined as a mediator of contextual risk. EC was assessed using laboratory tasks, and parenting was assessed using observational ratings. Time 1 contextual risk was negatively related to time 2 EC after controlling for time 1 EC. Mothers' limit setting and scaffolding predicted higher time 2 EC and accounted for the effect of contextual risk. Time 1 EC, contextual risk, and parenting predicted time 2 social competence, and contextual risk had an indirect effect on social competence through parenting. Results suggest that contextual risk predicts smaller relative increases in EC and that parenting accounts for this effect. Knowledge of the factors that divert or promote effortful control can provide targets for intervention to enhance effortful control abilities and better adjustment.

  12. Contextual risk and parenting as predictors of effortful control and social competence in preschool children

    PubMed Central

    Lengua, Liliana J.; Honorado, Elizabeth; Bush, Nicole R.

    2011-01-01

    Using a short-term longitudinal design (6 months), this study examined cumulative contextual risk as a predictor of effortful control (EC) and social competence in a community sample of children (N = 80, ages 33–40 months at time 1). Maternal parenting was examined as a mediator of contextual risk. EC was assessed using laboratory tasks, and parenting was assessed using observational ratings. Time 1 contextual risk was negatively related to time 2 EC after controlling for time 1 EC. Mothers’ limit setting and scaffolding predicted higher time 2 EC and accounted for the effect of contextual risk. Time 1 EC, contextual risk, and parenting predicted time 2 social competence, and contextual risk had an indirect effect on social competence through parenting. Results suggest that contextual risk predicts smaller relative increases in EC and that parenting accounts for this effect. Knowledge of the factors that divert or promote effortful control can provide targets for intervention to enhance effortful control abilities and better adjustment. PMID:21687825

  13. Rapid Risk-Based Evaluation of Competing Conceptual Designs

    SciTech Connect

    Bott, T.F.; Butner, J.M.

    1999-08-22

    In this paper, the authors have shown how a qualitative analysis can provide good input to a risk reduction design problem. Traditionally qualitative analyses such as the FMEA can be supplemented by qualitative fault trees and event trees to produce logic models of the accident sequences for the different design options. These models can be compared using rule-based manipulations of qualitative branch point probabilities. A qualitative evaluation of other considerations such as collateral safety effects, operational impacts and worker-safety impacts can provide a more complete picture of the trade-off between options. The authors believe that their risk-reduction analysis approach that combines logic models with qualitative and possibility metrics provides an excellent tool for incorporating safety concerns rapidly and effectively into a conceptual design evaluation.

  14. Number needed to treat for time-to-event data with competing risks.

    PubMed

    Gouskova, Natalia A; Kundu, Suprateek; Imrey, Peter B; Fine, Jason P

    2014-01-30

    The number needed to treat is a tool often used in clinical settings to illustrate the effect of a treatment. It has been widely adopted in the communication of risks to both clinicians and non-clinicians, such as patients, who are better able to understand this measure than absolute risk or rate reductions. The concept was introduced by Laupacis, Sackett, and Roberts in 1988 for binary data, and extended to time-to-event data by Altman and Andersen in 1999. However, up to the present, there is no definition of the number needed to treat for time-to-event data with competing risks. This paper introduces such a definition using the cumulative incidence function and suggests non-parametric and semi-parametric inferential methods for right-censored time-to-event data in the presence of competing risks. The procedures are illustrated using the data from a breast cancer clinical trial. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Awakening as a change process among women at risk for HIV who engage in survival sex.

    PubMed

    Mallory, C; Stern, P N

    2000-09-01

    Women who exchange sex for survival requirements risk exposure to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). This grounded theory study was conducted to better understand these women's concerns, attitudes, and behaviors related to HIV, with the goal of informing prevention research. Interviews with 11 women engaged in survival sex were analyzed. Women described sliding into survival sex as a result of economic crises. Survival sex exposed women to violence, drug use, sexually transmitted infections, and HIV. Mitigating these risks is a process of awakening in which women reconstruct risk and survival and make changes in their behavior. These findings highlight the complexity of the problem of survival sex and suggest interventions to help women protect themselves against HIV.

  16. Social Competence of Students with Learning Disabilities Using a Risk-Resilience Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Benowitz, Alison Joy

    2010-01-01

    Children with learning disabilities (LD) makeup 50.5% of all children identified for special services in the schools. Research has found that children with LD have difficulties in areas of functioning related to social competence. This study is based on a risk and resilience model to explore external protective factors (friendships and social…

  17. Therapeutic risk management of clinical-legal dilemmas: should it be a core competency?

    PubMed

    Simon, Robert I; Shuman, Daniel W

    2009-01-01

    Therapeutic risk management of clinical-legal dilemmas achieves an optimal alignment between clinical competence and an understanding of legal concerns applicable to psychiatric practice. Understanding how psychiatry and law interact in frequently occurring clinical situations is essential for effective patient care. Successful management of clinical-legal dilemmas also avoids unnecessary, counterproductive defensive practices.

  18. Pitfalls in Pathways: Some Perspectives on Competing Risks Event History Analysis in Education Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Scott, Marc A.; Kennedy, Benjamin B.

    2005-01-01

    A set of discrete-time methods for competing risks event history analysis is presented. The approach used is accessible to the practitioner and the article describes the strengths, weaknesses, and interpretation of both exploratory and model-based tools. These techniques are applied to the impact of "nontraditional" enrollment features (working,…

  19. Using La Familia Communication Competency Skills To Empower Hispanic At-Risk Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Flores, Norma Landa

    Hispanic families can be empowered through parent training workshops focusing on the development of competency based interpersonal communication skills. Nearly 50% of the Latinos in the United States are at risk of dropping out before graduating from high school. They believe that their family obligations come first and that the school system is…

  20. The Effect of Family on the Job Exits of Young Adults: A Competing Risk Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koenigsberg, Judy; And Others

    1994-01-01

    Event history analysis and a competing risk model of occupational attainment indicate that, for men, marriage and children at job entry have negative effects on job exits; for women, they negatively affect exits to attend school but positively affect exits for other reasons, suggesting that young women with children may consider parenting their…

  1. Using La Familia Communication Competency Skills To Empower Hispanic At-Risk Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Flores, Norma Landa

    Hispanic families can be empowered through parent training workshops focusing on the development of competency based interpersonal communication skills. Nearly 50% of the Latinos in the United States are at risk of dropping out before graduating from high school. They believe that their family obligations come first and that the school system is…

  2. A competing risks approach for time estimation of household WEEE disposal

    SciTech Connect

    Gutierrez, E.; Adenso-Diaz, B.; Lozano, S.; Gonzalez-Torre, P.

    2010-08-15

    The recent growth in the number of electrical and electronic devices is viewed as one the priority waste streams in European Union waste management policy. This paper presents the findings of a survey to study domestic habits with respect to Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) in Spain. A specific problem when performing this estimation arises from the fact that consumers quite often store old appliances at home when they are no longer used. Focusing on four different types of appliance, survival analysis (SA) is used to study both the usage span and the reasons for no longer using each device. The time that the discarded products were kept at home before being disposed of was studied using competing risks (CR) analysis. The results of the analysis provide information on the distribution of the studied variables for the different outcomes as well as the influence exerted by the socio-demographic variables considered. Relations between these characteristics and the storage time of the appliances before disposal emerge based on survey data. For instance, the CR model finds that the storage time of the some appliances (i.e. refrigerator) is related to these social-demographics factors. However, other appliances (i.e. microwave oven) are less influenced by these factors. The attitude and motivation of the respondents to the survey as regards the End-of-Life of appliances were also analysed. A majority of respondents do not store discarded appliances at home. The first reason for storing appliances at home is the possibility of it being useful in the future and the second that the respondents did not know what to do with them.

  3. A competing risks approach for time estimation of household WEEE disposal.

    PubMed

    Gutiérrez, E; Adenso-Díaz, B; Lozano, S; González-Torre, P

    2010-01-01

    The recent growth in the number of electrical and electronic devices is viewed as one the priority waste streams in European Union waste management policy. This paper presents the findings of a survey to study domestic habits with respect to Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) in Spain. A specific problem when performing this estimation arises from the fact that consumers quite often store old appliances at home when they are no longer used. Focusing on four different types of appliance, survival analysis (SA) is used to study both the usage span and the reasons for no longer using each device. The time that the discarded products were kept at home before being disposed of was studied using competing risks (CR) analysis. The results of the analysis provide information on the distribution of the studied variables for the different outcomes as well as the influence exerted by the socio-demographic variables considered. Relations between these characteristics and the storage time of the appliances before disposal emerge based on survey data. For instance, the CR model finds that the storage time of the some appliances (i.e. refrigerator) is related to these social-demographics factors. However, other appliances (i.e. microwave oven) are less influenced by these factors. The attitude and motivation of the respondents to the survey as regards the End-of-Life of appliances were also analysed. A majority of respondents do not store discarded appliances at home. The first reason for storing appliances at home is the possibility of it being useful in the future and the second that the respondents did not know what to do with them.

  4. Risk of dementia and death in patients with atrial fibrillation: A competing risk analysis of a population-based cohort.

    PubMed

    Marzona, Irene; Baviera, Marta; Vannini, Tommaso; Tettamanti, Mauro; Cortesi, Laura; Riva, Emma; Nobili, Alessandro; Marcon, Gabriella; Fortino, Ida; Bortolotti, Angela; Merlino, Luca; Roncaglioni, Maria Carla

    2016-10-01

    Previous studies have stated that atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with a higher risk of dementia. However, none have examined the competition between death and incident dementia in patients with AF. We evaluated the risk of incident dementia in patients with AF in comparison to people without this arrhythmia, considering of the competing risk of death. AF and non-AF cohorts were identified using the large administrative database of the Lombardy Region and followed for ten years. Patients with incident dementia were identified if they had an ICD 9 code referring to dementia at hospital discharge or a prescription for any anti-dementia drug. The association of AF with dementia or death was assessed with the multivariable Cox proportional-regression model, sensitivity analysis with a 1:1 propensity score matching and competing-risk analysis. In 2003 a total of 27,431 patients were hospitalized for AF in the Lombardy Region, while the cohort of non-AF counted 1,600,200 people. AF was associated with a higher risk of dementia (17%) and death (51%) at multivariable Cox analysis. These results were confirmed by the model fitted after propensity score matching. However, competing risk analysis found the association between AF and incident dementia was no longer significant (HR 0.99; 95% CI 0.94-1.04). In this real-world population the association between AF and dementia was no longer statistically significant when death was considered a competing risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Intelligence quotient discrepancy indicates levels of motor competence in preschool children at risk for developmental delays.

    PubMed

    Yu, Tzu-Ying; Chen, Kuan-Lin; Chou, Willy; Yang, Shu-Han; Kung, Sheng-Chun; Lee, Ya-Chen; Tung, Li-Chen

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to establish 1) whether a group difference exists in the motor competence of preschool children at risk for developmental delays with intelligence quotient discrepancy (IQD; refers to difference between verbal intelligence quotient [VIQ] and performance intelligence quotient [PIQ]) and 2) whether an association exists between IQD and motor competence. Children's motor competence and IQD were determined with the motor subtests of the Comprehensive Developmental Inventory for Infants and Toddlers and Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence™ - Fourth Edition. A total of 291 children were included in three groups: NON-IQD (n=213; IQD within 1 standard deviation [SD]), VIQ>PIQ (n=39; VIQ>PIQ greater than 1 SD), and PIQ>VIQ (n=39; PIQ>VIQ greater than 1 SD). The results of one-way analysis of variance indicated significant differences among the subgroups for the "Gross and fine motor" subdomains of the Comprehensive Developmental Inventory for Infants and Toddlers, especially on the subtests of "body-movement coordination" (F=3.87, P<0.05) and "visual-motor coordination" (F=6.90, P<0.05). Motor competence was significantly worse in the VIQ>PIQ group than in the NON and PIQ>VIQ groups. Significant negative correlations between IQD and most of the motor subtests (r=0.31-0.46, P<0.01) were found only in the VIQ>PIQ group. This study demonstrates that 1) IQD indicates the level of motor competence in preschoolers at risk for developmental delays and 2) IQD is negatively associated with motor competence in preschoolers with significant VIQ>PIQ discrepancy. The first finding was that preschoolers with VIQ>PIQ discrepancy greater than 1 SD performed significantly worse on motor competence than did preschoolers without significant IQD and preschoolers with PIQ>VIQ discrepancy greater than 1 SD. However, preschoolers with significant PIQ>VIQ discrepancy performed better on motor competence than did preschoolers without significant IQD, though the

  6. Intelligence quotient discrepancy indicates levels of motor competence in preschool children at risk for developmental delays

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Tzu-Ying; Chen, Kuan-Lin; Chou, Willy; Yang, Shu-Han; Kung, Sheng-Chun; Lee, Ya-Chen; Tung, Li-Chen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose This study aimed to establish 1) whether a group difference exists in the motor competence of preschool children at risk for developmental delays with intelligence quotient discrepancy (IQD; refers to difference between verbal intelligence quotient [VIQ] and performance intelligence quotient [PIQ]) and 2) whether an association exists between IQD and motor competence. Methods Children’s motor competence and IQD were determined with the motor subtests of the Comprehensive Developmental Inventory for Infants and Toddlers and Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence™ – Fourth Edition. A total of 291 children were included in three groups: NON-IQD (n=213; IQD within 1 standard deviation [SD]), VIQ>PIQ (n=39; VIQ>PIQ greater than 1 SD), and PIQ>VIQ (n=39; PIQ>VIQ greater than 1 SD). Results The results of one-way analysis of variance indicated significant differences among the subgroups for the “Gross and fine motor” subdomains of the Comprehensive Developmental Inventory for Infants and Toddlers, especially on the subtests of “body-movement coordination” (F=3.87, P<0.05) and “visual-motor coordination” (F=6.90, P<0.05). Motor competence was significantly worse in the VIQ>PIQ group than in the NON and PIQ>VIQ groups. Significant negative correlations between IQD and most of the motor subtests (r=0.31–0.46, P<0.01) were found only in the VIQ>PIQ group. Conclusion This study demonstrates that 1) IQD indicates the level of motor competence in preschoolers at risk for developmental delays and 2) IQD is negatively associated with motor competence in preschoolers with significant VIQ>PIQ discrepancy. The first finding was that preschoolers with VIQ>PIQ discrepancy greater than 1 SD performed significantly worse on motor competence than did preschoolers without significant IQD and preschoolers with PIQ>VIQ discrepancy greater than 1 SD. However, preschoolers with significant PIQ>VIQ discrepancy performed better on motor competence than

  7. Oppositionality and socioemotional competence: interacting risk factors in the development of childhood conduct disorder symptoms.

    PubMed

    Mandy, William; Skuse, David; Steer, Colin; St Pourcain, Beate; Oliver, Bonamy R

    2013-07-01

    Oppositional behavior in childhood is a probabilistic risk factor for the subsequent development of more serious conduct problems characteristic of conduct disorder (CD). The capacity to understand the subjective states of others (socioemotional competence) helps regulate antisocial behavior in typical development. We hypothesized that socioemotional competence moderates the developmental relationship between oppositionality and CD symptoms, such that oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) symptoms pose the greatest risk for subsequent CD symptoms in children with poor socioemotional competence. Parent-report data were collected for 6,218 children at 7 and 10 years of age. Bootstrap multiple regression predicting CD symptoms at age 10 was used to test for an interaction between socioemotional competence and ODD symptoms, while also accounting for direct effects and controlling for sex, maternal education, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder symptoms, and CD symptoms at 7 years. We further tested whether the interaction applied to both males and females, and to both aggressive and rule-breaking CD symptoms. A significant interaction was found between ODD and socioemotional competence: the association between oppositionality at 7 years and CD traits at 10 years was strongest for children with poor socioemotional capacities. As predicted, this moderation effect was significant in a model predicting aggression, but it was not significant for rule-breaking CD symptoms. Socioemotional competence moderates the developmental relationship between mid-childhood oppositionality and more serious conduct problems in later childhood. A capacity to understand the subjective states of others may buffer the risk posed by oppositionality for later CD symptoms, including aggression. Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials using clinical risk-benefit analysis

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background To demonstrate the use of risk-benefit analysis for comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials, we applied this approach to the evaluation of five anticoagulants to prevent thrombosis in patients undergoing orthopedic surgery. Methods Using a cost-effectiveness approach from a clinical perspective (i.e. risk benefit analysis) we compared thromboprophylaxis with warfarin, low molecular weight heparin, unfractionated heparin, fondaparinux or ximelagatran in patients undergoing major orthopedic surgery, with sub-analyses according to surgery type. Proportions and variances of events defining risk (major bleeding) and benefit (thrombosis averted) were obtained through a meta-analysis and used to define beta distributions. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted and used to calculate incremental risks, benefits, and risk-benefit ratios. Finally, net clinical benefit was calculated for all replications across a range of risk-benefit acceptability thresholds, with a reference range obtained by estimating the case fatality rate - ratio of thrombosis to bleeding. Results The analysis showed that compared to placebo ximelagatran was superior to other options but final results were influenced by type of surgery, since ximelagatran was superior in total knee replacement but not in total hip replacement. Conclusions Using simulation and economic techniques we demonstrate a method that allows comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials with multiple arms by determining the option with the best risk-benefit profile. It can be helpful in clinical decision making since it incorporates risk, benefit, and personal risk acceptance. PMID:22233221

  9. On the importance of accounting for competing risks in pediatric cancer trials designed to delay or avoid radiotherapy: I. Basic concepts and first analyses.

    PubMed

    Tai, Bee-Choo; Grundy, Richard G; Machin, David

    2010-04-01

    In trials designed to delay or avoid irradiation among children with malignant brain tumor, although irradiation after disease progression is an important event, patients who have disease progression may decline radiotherapy (RT), or those without disease progression may opt for elective RT. To accurately describe the cumulative need for RT in such instances, it is crucial to account for these distinct events and to evaluate how each contributes to the delay or advancement of irradiation via a competing risks analysis. We describe the summary of competing events in such trials using competing risks methods based on cumulative incidence functions and Gray's test. The results obtained are contrasted with standard survival methods based on Kaplan-Meier curves, cause-specific hazard functions and log-rank test. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimates all event-specific rates. The cause-specific hazard analysis showed reduction in hazards for all events (A: RT after progression; B: no RT after progression; C: elective RT) among children with ependymoma. For event A, a higher cumulative incidence was reported for ependymoma. Although Gray's test failed to detect any difference (p = 0.331) between histologic subtypes, the log-rank test suggested marginal evidence (p = 0.057). Similarly, for event C, the log-rank test found stronger evidence of reduction in hazard among those with ependymoma (p = 0.005) as compared with Gray's test (p = 0.086). To evaluate treatment differences, failing to account for competing risks using appropriate methodology may lead to incorrect interpretations.

  10. Competence, risk, and resilience in military families: conceptual commentary.

    PubMed

    Masten, Ann S

    2013-09-01

    This commentary highlights conceptual themes in the opening section of this special issue on military families in relation to a new synthesis of developmental systems theory that emerged from developmental, ecological, and family systems theory, as well as developmental psychopathology and risk/resilience frameworks. Articles in this special issue draw on these concepts to characterize and guide the burgeoning research on military families. This perspective emphasizes that multiple dynamic systems interact across levels to shape individual development, as well as the function of families and military units. Developmental timing is important for understanding how challenges of military life may impact individuals and families. Cascade effects are noted, where stress experienced by one family or service member can influence the function of other individuals or larger systems. Capacity for resilience is distributed across systems, including families and cultures, as well as resources or supports provided by military organizations to foster adaptive responses or recovery. These systems include schools and educational programs that play key roles in fostering and supporting resilience for children. Overall, developmental system concepts have considerable utility for guiding research with military families, particularly in regard to promoting resilience. Moreover, lessons learned from military families and programs may have much broader implications for many other nonmilitary children, families, and organizations that share similar goals and challenges.

  11. A Novel Risk Score to the Prediction of 10-year Risk for Coronary Artery Disease Among the Elderly in Beijing Based on Competing Risk Model.

    PubMed

    Liu, Long; Tang, Zhe; Li, Xia; Luo, Yanxia; Guo, Jin; Li, Haibin; Liu, Xiangtong; Tao, Lixin; Yan, Aoshuang; Guo, Xiuhua

    2016-03-01

    The study aimed to construct a risk prediction model for coronary artery disease (CAD) based on competing risk model among the elderly in Beijing and develop a user-friendly CAD risk score tool. We used competing risk model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CAD event. On the basis of the risk factors that were included in the competing risk model, we constructed the CAD risk prediction model with Cox proportional hazard model. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the discrimination ability of the both methods. Calibration plots were applied to assess the calibration ability and adjusted for the competing risk of non-CAD death. Net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were applied to quantify the improvement contributed by the new risk factors. Internal validation of predictive accuracy was performed using 1000 times of bootstrap re-sampling. Of the 1775 participants without CAD at baseline, 473 incident cases of CAD were documented for a 20-year follow-up. Time-dependent AUCs for men and women at t = 10 years were 0.841 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.806-0.877], 0.804 (95% CI: 0.768-0.839) in Fine and Gray model, 0.784 (95% CI: 0.738-0.830), 0.733 (95% CI: 0.692-0.775) in Cox proportional hazard model. The competing risk model was significantly superior to Cox proportional hazard model on discrimination and calibration. The cut-off values of the risk score that marked the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients were 34 points for men and 30 points for women, which have good sensitivity and specificity. A sex-specific multivariable risk factor algorithm-based competing risk model has been developed on the basis of an elderly Chinese cohort, which could be applied to predict an individual's risk and provide a useful guide to identify the groups at a high risk for CAD among the Chinese adults over 55

  12. A Novel Risk Score to the Prediction of 10-year Risk for Coronary Artery Disease Among the Elderly in Beijing Based on Competing Risk Model

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Long; Tang, Zhe; Li, Xia; Luo, Yanxia; Guo, Jin; Li, Haibin; Liu, Xiangtong; Tao, Lixin; Yan, Aoshuang; Guo, Xiuhua

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The study aimed to construct a risk prediction model for coronary artery disease (CAD) based on competing risk model among the elderly in Beijing and develop a user-friendly CAD risk score tool. We used competing risk model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CAD event. On the basis of the risk factors that were included in the competing risk model, we constructed the CAD risk prediction model with Cox proportional hazard model. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the discrimination ability of the both methods. Calibration plots were applied to assess the calibration ability and adjusted for the competing risk of non-CAD death. Net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were applied to quantify the improvement contributed by the new risk factors. Internal validation of predictive accuracy was performed using 1000 times of bootstrap re-sampling. Of the 1775 participants without CAD at baseline, 473 incident cases of CAD were documented for a 20-year follow-up. Time-dependent AUCs for men and women at t = 10 years were 0.841 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.806–0.877], 0.804 (95% CI: 0.768–0.839) in Fine and Gray model, 0.784 (95% CI: 0.738–0.830), 0.733 (95% CI: 0.692–0.775) in Cox proportional hazard model. The competing risk model was significantly superior to Cox proportional hazard model on discrimination and calibration. The cut-off values of the risk score that marked the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients were 34 points for men and 30 points for women, which have good sensitivity and specificity. A sex-specific multivariable risk factor algorithm-based competing risk model has been developed on the basis of an elderly Chinese cohort, which could be applied to predict an individual's risk and provide a useful guide to identify the groups at a high risk for CAD among the Chinese

  13. Competing risk analysis on outcome after hepatic resection of hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic patients

    PubMed Central

    Cucchetti, Alessandro; Sposito, Carlo; Pinna, Antonio Daniele; Citterio, Davide; Cescon, Matteo; Bongini, Marco; Ercolani, Giorgio; Cotsoglou, Christian; Maroni, Lorenzo; Mazzaferro, Vincenzo

    2017-01-01

    AIM To investigate death for liver failure and for tumor recurrence as competing events after hepatectomy of hepatocellular carcinoma. METHODS Data from 864 cirrhotic Child-Pugh class A consecutive patients, submitted to curative hepatectomy (1997-2013) at two tertiary referral hospitals, were used for competing-risk analysis through the Fine and Gray method, aimed at assessing in which circumstances the oncological benefit from tumour removal is greater than the risk of dying from hepatic decompensation. To accomplish this task, the average risk of these two competing events, over 5 years of follow-up, was calculated through the integral of each cumulative incidence function, and represented the main comparison parameter. RESULTS Within a median follow-up of 5.6 years, death was attributable to tumor recurrence in 63.5%, and to liver failure in 21.2% of cases. In the first 16 mo, the risk of dying due to liver failure exceeded that of dying due to tumor relapse. Tumor stage only affects death from recurrence; whereas hepatitis C infection, Model for End-stage Liver Disease score, extent of hepatectomy and portal hypertension influence death from liver failure (P < 0.05 in all cases). The combination of these clinical and tumoral features identifies those patients in whom the risk of dying from liver failure did not exceed the tumour-related mortality, representing optimal surgical candidates. It also identifies those clinical circumstances where the oncological benefit would be borderline or even where the surgery would be harmful. CONCLUSION Having knowledge of these competing events can be used to weigh the risks and benefits of hepatic resection in each clinical circumstance, separating optimal from non-optimal surgical candidates. PMID:28293094

  14. Improved Method to Stratify Elderly Patients With Cancer at Risk for Competing Events.

    PubMed

    Carmona, Ruben; Zakeri, Kaveh; Green, Garrett; Hwang, Lindsay; Gulaya, Sachin; Xu, Beibei; Verma, Rohan; Williamson, Casey W; Triplett, Daniel P; Rose, Brent S; Shen, Hanjie; Vaida, Florin; Murphy, James D; Mell, Loren K

    2016-04-10

    To compare a novel generalized competing event (GCE) model versus the standard Cox proportional hazards regression model for stratifying elderly patients with cancer who are at risk for competing events. We identified 84,319 patients with nonmetastatic prostate, head and neck, and breast cancers from the SEER-Medicare database. Using demographic, tumor, and clinical characteristics, we trained risk scores on the basis of GCE versus Cox models for cancer-specific mortality and all-cause mortality. In test sets, we examined the predictive ability of the risk scores on the different causes of death, including second cancer mortality, noncancer mortality, and cause-specific mortality, using Fine-Gray regression and area under the curve. We compared how well models stratified subpopulations according to the ratio of the cumulative cause-specific hazard for cancer mortality to the cumulative hazard for overall mortality (ω) using the Akaike Information Criterion. In each sample, increasing GCE risk scores were associated with increased cancer-specific mortality and decreased competing mortality, whereas risk scores from Cox models were associated with both increased cancer-specific mortality and competing mortality. GCE models created greater separation in the area under the curve for cancer-specific mortality versus noncancer mortality (P < .001), indicating better discriminatory ability between these events. Comparing the GCE model to Cox models of cause-specific mortality or all-cause mortality, the respective Akaike Information Criterion scores were superior (lower) in each sample: prostate cancer, 28.6 versus 35.5 versus 39.4; head and neck cancer, 21.1 versus 29.4 versus 40.2; and breast cancer, 24.6 versus 32.3 versus 50.8. Compared with standard modeling approaches, GCE models improve stratification of elderly patients with cancer according to their risk of dying from cancer relative to overall mortality. © 2016 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

  15. Improved Method to Stratify Elderly Patients With Cancer at Risk for Competing Events

    PubMed Central

    Carmona, Ruben; Zakeri, Kaveh; Green, Garrett; Hwang, Lindsay; Gulaya, Sachin; Xu, Beibei; Verma, Rohan; Williamson, Casey W.; Triplett, Daniel P.; Rose, Brent S.; Shen, Hanjie; Vaida, Florin; Murphy, James D.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To compare a novel generalized competing event (GCE) model versus the standard Cox proportional hazards regression model for stratifying elderly patients with cancer who are at risk for competing events. Methods We identified 84,319 patients with nonmetastatic prostate, head and neck, and breast cancers from the SEER-Medicare database. Using demographic, tumor, and clinical characteristics, we trained risk scores on the basis of GCE versus Cox models for cancer-specific mortality and all-cause mortality. In test sets, we examined the predictive ability of the risk scores on the different causes of death, including second cancer mortality, noncancer mortality, and cause-specific mortality, using Fine-Gray regression and area under the curve. We compared how well models stratified subpopulations according to the ratio of the cumulative cause-specific hazard for cancer mortality to the cumulative hazard for overall mortality (ω) using the Akaike Information Criterion. Results In each sample, increasing GCE risk scores were associated with increased cancer-specific mortality and decreased competing mortality, whereas risk scores from Cox models were associated with both increased cancer-specific mortality and competing mortality. GCE models created greater separation in the area under the curve for cancer-specific mortality versus noncancer mortality (P < .001), indicating better discriminatory ability between these events. Comparing the GCE model to Cox models of cause-specific mortality or all-cause mortality, the respective Akaike Information Criterion scores were superior (lower) in each sample: prostate cancer, 28.6 versus 35.5 versus 39.4; head and neck cancer, 21.1 versus 29.4 versus 40.2; and breast cancer, 24.6 versus 32.3 versus 50.8. Conclusion Compared with standard modeling approaches, GCE models improve stratification of elderly patients with cancer according to their risk of dying from cancer relative to overall mortality. PMID:26884579

  16. Competing risk analysis of mortality in prostate cancer treated with radical prostatectomy.

    PubMed

    Ruiz-Cerdá, J L; Soto-Poveda, A; Luján-Marco, S; Loras-Monfort, A; Trassierra-Villa, M; Rogel-Bertó, R; Boronat-Tormo, F

    To determine the risk of cancer-specific mortality (CSM) versus the competing risk of mortality by other causes (MOC) in patients with localised prostate cancer (LPC) treated with radical prostatectomy (RP). An observational cohort study of 982 patients with LPC treated with RP selected from our department's PC registry database. A competing risk analysis was performed, calculating the probability of CSM in the presence of the competing risk of MOC. Cumulative incidence curves were constructed, and point estimates were performed at 5, 10 and 15 years. The analysis was stratified by age (≤65 vs. >65 years) and risk group: low (Gleason score ≤6 and pT2abc); intermediate (Gleason score of 7 and pT2abc) and high (Gleason score of 8-10 or pT3ab). With a median follow-up of 60 months, the overall probability of dying from PC was 3.5%, and the probability of dying from other causes was 9%. A competing effect for MOC was observed. The risk of MOC was almost 3 times greater than that of CSM. This effect remained for all risk groups, although its magnitude decreased progressively according to the risk group level. At 10 years, CSM was only 0%, 1% and 2% for the low, intermediate and high-risk groups, respectively, while the likelihood of MOC was 4%, 4% and 10%, respectively. The mortality risk was shown after 10years of follow-up and was higher for other causes not attributable to PC and for patients older than 65years. The benefit of RP might be overestimated, given that the risk of MOC is greater than that of CSM, regardless of the age group and risk group, especially after 10years of follow-up. The only parameter that varied was the magnitude of the CSM/MOC ratio. This information could help in choosing the active treatment for patients with LPC and short life expectancies. Copyright © 2016 AEU. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  17. Linking habitat selection and predation risk to spatial variation in survival

    PubMed Central

    DeCesare, Nicholas J; Hebblewhite, Mark; Bradley, Mark; Hervieux, David; Neufeld, Lalenia; Musiani, Marco; Mysterud, Atle

    2014-01-01

    1. A central assumption underlying the study of habitat selection is that selected habitats confer enhanced fitness. Unfortunately, this assumption is rarely tested, and in some systems, gradients of predation risk may more accurately characterize spatial variation in vital rates than gradients described by habitat selection studies. 2. Here, we separately measured spatial patterns of both resource selection and predation risk and tested their relationships with a key demographic trait, adult female survival, for a threatened ungulate, woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou Gmelin). We also evaluated whether exposure to gradients in both predation risk and resource selection value was manifested temporally through instantaneous or seasonal effects on survival outcomes. 3. We used Cox proportional hazards spatial survival modelling to assess the relative support for 5 selection- and risk-based definitions of habitat quality, as quantified by woodland caribou adult female survival. These hypotheses included scenarios in which selection ideally mirrored survival, risk entirely drove survival, non-ideal selection correlated with survival but with additive risk effects, an ecological trap with maladaptive selection and a non-spatial effect of annual variation in weather. 4. Indeed, we found positive relationships between the predicted values of a resource selection function (RSF) and survival, yet subsequently incorporating an additional negative effect of predation risk greatly improved models further. This revealed a positive, but non-ideal relationship between selection and survival. Gradients in these covariates were also shown to affect individual survival probability at multiple temporal scales. Exposure to increased predation risk had a relatively instantaneous effect on survival outcomes, whereas variation in habitat suitability predicted by an RSF had both instantaneous and longer-term seasonal effects on survival. 5. Predation risk was an additive source

  18. Linking habitat selection and predation risk to spatial variation in survival.

    PubMed

    DeCesare, Nicholas J; Hebblewhite, Mark; Bradley, Mark; Hervieux, David; Neufeld, Lalenia; Musiani, Marco

    2014-03-01

    A central assumption underlying the study of habitat selection is that selected habitats confer enhanced fitness. Unfortunately, this assumption is rarely tested, and in some systems, gradients of predation risk may more accurately characterize spatial variation in vital rates than gradients described by habitat selection studies. Here, we separately measured spatial patterns of both resource selection and predation risk and tested their relationships with a key demographic trait, adult female survival, for a threatened ungulate, woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou Gmelin). We also evaluated whether exposure to gradients in both predation risk and resource selection value was manifested temporally through instantaneous or seasonal effects on survival outcomes. We used Cox proportional hazards spatial survival modelling to assess the relative support for 5 selection- and risk-based definitions of habitat quality, as quantified by woodland caribou adult female survival. These hypotheses included scenarios in which selection ideally mirrored survival, risk entirely drove survival, non-ideal selection correlated with survival but with additive risk effects, an ecological trap with maladaptive selection and a non-spatial effect of annual variation in weather. Indeed, we found positive relationships between the predicted values of a resource selection function (RSF) and survival, yet subsequently incorporating an additional negative effect of predation risk greatly improved models further. This revealed a positive, but non-ideal relationship between selection and survival. Gradients in these covariates were also shown to affect individual survival probability at multiple temporal scales. Exposure to increased predation risk had a relatively instantaneous effect on survival outcomes, whereas variation in habitat suitability predicted by an RSF had both instantaneous and longer-term seasonal effects on survival. Predation risk was an additive source of hazard

  19. Avoidance of sun exposure as a risk factor for major causes of death: a competing risk analysis of the Melanoma in Southern Sweden cohort.

    PubMed

    Lindqvist, P G; Epstein, E; Nielsen, K; Landin-Olsson, M; Ingvar, C; Olsson, H

    2016-10-01

    Women with active sunlight exposure habits experience a lower mortality rate than women who avoid sun exposure; however, they are at an increased risk of skin cancer. We aimed to explore the differences in main causes of death according to sun exposure. We assessed the differences in sun exposure as a risk factor for all-cause mortality in a competing risk scenario for 29 518 Swedish women in a prospective 20-year follow-up of the Melanoma in Southern Sweden (MISS) cohort. Women were recruited from 1990 to 1992 (aged 25-64 years at the start of the study). We obtained detailed information at baseline on sun exposure habits and potential confounders. The data were analysed using modern survival statistics. Women with active sun exposure habits were mainly at a lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and noncancer/non-CVD death as compared to those who avoided sun exposure. As a result of their increased survival, the relative contribution of cancer death increased in these women. Nonsmokers who avoided sun exposure had a life expectancy similar to smokers in the highest sun exposure group, indicating that avoidance of sun exposure is a risk factor for death of a similar magnitude as smoking. Compared to the highest sun exposure group, life expectancy of avoiders of sun exposure was reduced by 0.6-2.1 years. The longer life expectancy amongst women with active sun exposure habits was related to a decrease in CVD and noncancer/non-CVD mortality, causing the relative contribution of death due to cancer to increase. © 2016 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.

  20. Planning and evaluating clinical trials with composite time-to-first-event endpoints in a competing risk framework.

    PubMed

    Rauch, G; Beyersmann, J

    2013-09-20

    Composite endpoints combine several events of interest within a single variable. These are often time-to-first-event data, which are analyzed via survival analysis techniques. To demonstrate the significance of an overall clinical benefit, it is sufficient to assess the test problem formulated for the composite. However, the effect observed for the composite does not necessarily reflect the effects for the components. Therefore, it would be desirable that the sample size for clinical trials using composite endpoints provides enough power not only to detect a clinically relevant superiority for the composite but also to address the components in an adequate way. The single components of a composite endpoint assessed as time-to-first-event define competing risks. We consider multiple test problems based on the cause-specific hazards of competing events to address the problem of analyzing both a composite endpoint and its components. Thereby, we use sequentially rejective test procedures to reduce the power loss to a minimum. We show how to calculate the sample size for the given multiple test problem by using a simply applicable simulation tool in SAS. Our ideas are illustrated by two clinical study examples. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Quantifying the predictive accuracy of time-to-event models in the presence of competing risks.

    PubMed

    Schoop, Rotraut; Beyersmann, Jan; Schumacher, Martin; Binder, Harald

    2011-02-01

    Prognostic models for time-to-event data play a prominent role in therapy assignment, risk stratification and inter-hospital quality assurance. The assessment of their prognostic value is vital not only for responsible resource allocation, but also for their widespread acceptance. The additional presence of competing risks to the event of interest requires proper handling not only on the model building side, but also during assessment. Research into methods for the evaluation of the prognostic potential of models accounting for competing risks is still needed, as most proposed methods measure either their discrimination or calibration, but do not examine both simultaneously. We adapt the prediction error proposal of Graf et al. (Statistics in Medicine 1999, 18, 2529–2545) and Gerds and Schumacher (Biometrical Journal 2006, 48, 1029–1040) to handle models with competing risks, i.e. more than one possible event type, and introduce a consistent estimator. A simulation study investigating the behaviour of the estimator in small sample size situations and for different levels of censoring together with a real data application follows.

  2. Accounting for death as a competing risk in cancer-associated thrombosis studies.

    PubMed

    Campigotto, Federico; Neuberg, Donna; Zwicker, Jeffrey I

    2012-04-01

    In recent years, clinical investigation in the field of cancer-associated thrombosis has identified a number of potential biomarkers to predict the risk of developing a thrombotic event. Similarly, large randomized clinical trials have demonstrated the benefit of low molecular weight heparins in the treatment as well as prevention of venous thromboembolic events (VTE) in cancer patients. However, the most common statistical methodology to evaluate the occurrence of VTE has been the Kaplan-Meier approach. When used to estimate the cumulative incidence of VTE in cancer studies, the Kaplan-Meier method over-estimates the cumulative incidence function due to failure to account for death as a competing risk for the development of VTE. A more appropriate statistical estimate of cumulative incidence of VTE in cancer studies is the competing risk model. This review describes the theoretical and mathematical basis for estimating the cumulative incidence function by the competing risk model for the analysis of VTE outcomes in cancer-associated thrombosis.

  3. Survival of the rhizosphere-competent biocontrol strain Pseudomonas fluorescens NBRI2650 in the soil and phytosphere.

    PubMed

    Nautlyal, C Shekhar; Johri, J K; Singh, H B

    2002-07-01

    Pseudomonas fluorescens NBRI2650 was isolated after screening 360 bacterial strains from the rhizosphere of chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) grown in fungal-disease-suppressive field soil. The strain was selected because of its high rhizosphere competence and ability to inhibit the growth of Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. ciceri, Rhizoctonia bataticola, and Pythium sp. under in vitro conditions. Survival and colonization of NBRI2650 in the phytosphere of chickpea, cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.), cucumber (Cucumis sativus L.), and tomato (Lycopersicon seculentum Mill.) were monitored using a chromosomally located rifampicin-marked mutant P. fluorescens NBRI2650R. The strain showed variable ability to invade and survive in the phytosphere of different plants. Chickpea was used as a tester plant for further work, as it was not invaded by NBRI2650R. The interaction between NBRI2650R and F oxysporum fsp. ciceri was studied by both light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. The lysis of the fungal cell wall by NBRI2650R was clearly demonstrated. Treatment of the chickpea seeds with NBRI2650R in prerelease experiments in the greenhouse using disease-conducive field soils from Jhansi and Kanpur resulted in increased plant growth and did not result in any perturbation of the indigenous microbial community that inhabited the rhizosphere of chickpea compared with nonbacterized seeds. Direct fermentation of diluted NBRI2650R on vermiculite without the need of expensive fermentors offers a reliable process for manufacturing bacterial inoculants in developing countries. Under field conditions, the horizontal and vertical movement of NBRI2650R was restricted to 30 and 60 cm, respectively, and the strain could not survive in the field during the 7 months before the chickpea could be planted for next cropping season. Field trials conducted at Jhansi, Kanpur, and Pantnagar resulted in higher grain yield increase in the bacteria-treated seed compared with the nonbacterized control

  4. After accounting for competing causes of death and more advanced stage, do Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples with cancer still have worse survival? A population-based cohort study in New South Wales.

    PubMed

    Tervonen, Hanna E; Walton, Richard; You, Hui; Baker, Deborah; Roder, David; Currow, David; Aranda, Sanchia

    2017-06-02

    Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples in Australia have been found to have poorer cancer survival than non-Aboriginal people. However, use of conventional relative survival analyses is limited due to a lack of life tables. This cohort study examined whether poorer survival persist after accounting for competing risks of death from other causes and disparities in cancer stage at diagnosis, for all cancers collectively and by cancer site. People diagnosed in 2000-2008 were extracted from the population-based New South Wales Cancer Registry. Aboriginal status was multiply imputed for people with missing information (12.9%). Logistic regression models were used to compute odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for 'advanced stage' at diagnosis (separately for distant and distant/regional stage). Survival was examined using competing risk regression to compute subhazard ratios (SHRs) with 95%CIs. Of the 301,356 cases, 2517 (0.84%) identified as Aboriginal (0.94% after imputation). After adjusting for age, sex, year of diagnosis, socio-economic status, remoteness, and cancer site Aboriginal peoples were more likely to be diagnosed with distant (OR 1.30, 95%CI 1.17-1.44) or distant/regional stage (OR 1.29, 95%CI 1.18-1.40) for all cancers collectively. This applied to cancers of the female breast, uterus, prostate, kidney, others (those not included in other categories) and cervix (when analyses were restricted to cases with known stages/known Aboriginal status). Aboriginal peoples had a higher hazard of death than non-Aboriginal people after accounting for competing risks from other causes of death, socio-demographic factors, stage and cancer site (SHR 1.40, 95%CI 1.31-1.50 for all cancers collectively). Consistent results applied to colorectal, lung, breast, prostate and other cancers. Aboriginal peoples with cancer have an elevated hazard of cancer death compared with non-Aboriginal people, after accounting for more advanced stage and competing

  5. Analysis and design of randomised clinical trials involving competing risks endpoints

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background In randomised clinical trials involving time-to-event outcomes, the failures concerned may be events of an entirely different nature and as such define a classical competing risks framework. In designing and analysing clinical trials involving such endpoints, it is important to account for the competing events, and evaluate how each contributes to the overall failure. An appropriate choice of statistical model is important for adequate determination of sample size. Methods We describe how competing events may be summarised in such trials using cumulative incidence functions and Gray's test. The statistical modelling of competing events using proportional cause-specific and subdistribution hazard functions, and the corresponding procedures for sample size estimation are outlined. These are illustrated using data from a randomised clinical trial (SQNP01) of patients with advanced (non-metastatic) nasopharyngeal cancer. Results In this trial, treatment has no effect on the competing event of loco-regional recurrence. Thus the effects of treatment on the hazard of distant metastasis were similar via both the cause-specific (unadjusted csHR = 0.43, 95% CI 0.25 - 0.72) and subdistribution (unadjusted subHR 0.43; 95% CI 0.25 - 0.76) hazard analyses, in favour of concurrent chemo-radiotherapy followed by adjuvant chemotherapy. Adjusting for nodal status and tumour size did not alter the results. The results of the logrank test (p = 0.002) comparing the cause-specific hazards and the Gray's test (p = 0.003) comparing the cumulative incidences also led to the same conclusion. However, the subdistribution hazard analysis requires many more subjects than the cause-specific hazard analysis to detect the same magnitude of effect. Conclusions The cause-specific hazard analysis is appropriate for analysing competing risks outcomes when treatment has no effect on the cause-specific hazard of the competing event. It requires fewer subjects than the subdistribution hazard

  6. Non-parametric estimation of bivariate failure time associations in the presence of a competing risk.

    PubMed

    Bandeen-Roche, Karen; Ning, Jing

    2008-03-01

    Most research on the study of associations among paired failure times has either assumed time invariance or been based on complex measures or estimators. Little has accommodated competing risks. This paper targets the conditional cause-specific hazard ratio, henceforth called the cause-specific cross ratio, a recent modification of the conditional hazard ratio designed to accommodate competing risks data. Estimation is accomplished by an intuitive, non-parametric method that localizes Kendall's tau. Time variance is accommodated through a partitioning of space into 'bins' between which the strength of association may differ. Inferential procedures are developed, small-sample performance is evaluated and the methods are applied to the investigation of familial association in dementia onset.

  7. The Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index Predicts Survival in Elderly Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients with Radiotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Kunlun; Liu, Yang; You, Jie; Cui, Han; Zhu, Yiwei; Yuan, Ling

    2016-01-01

    The impact of nutritional status on survival among elderly esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients undergoing radiotherapy is unclear. In this study, we aimed at validating the performance of the geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) in predicting overall survival time in elderly ESCC patients with radiotherapy. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 239 ESCC patients aged 60 and over admitted consecutively from January 2008 to November 2014 in the Department of Radiotherapy, Henan Tumor Hospital (Affiliated Tumor Hospital of Zhengzhou University), Zhengzhou, Henan, China. All patients were subjected to nutritional screening using GNRI, and were followed for the occurrence of lymphatic node metastasis, radiation complication and mortality. The Kaplan–Meier method with Log-rank test was used to estimate survival curves. Univariable Cox regression analysis was used to identify variables associated with overall survival time. Among the 239 patients, 184 patients (76.9%) took no nutritional risk, 32 patients (13.4%) took moderate risk of malnutrition, and 23 patients (9.7%) took a high risk of malnutrition. Univariable Cox regression showed that both high nutritional risk group and moderate nutritional risk group were significantly less likely to survive than no nutritional risk patients (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.688, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.019–2.798 for moderate risk group, and HR = 2.699, 95% CI = 1.512–4.819 for high risk group, respectively). The GNRI is an independent prognostic factor for overall survival time in elderly ESCC patients with radiotherapy. A GNRI ≤98 can be suggested as an indicator of surviving less. PMID:27196126

  8. The Relationship between Survival Sex and Borderline Personality Disorder Symptoms in a High Risk Female Population.

    PubMed

    Ivanich, Jerreed; Welch-Lazoritz, Melissa; Dombrowski, Kirk

    2017-09-08

    Engaging in survival sex and mental illness are overrepresented within homeless populations. This article assesses the relationship between symptoms of borderline personality disorder (BPD) and engaging in survival sex among homeless women. One hundred and fifty-eight homeless women completed surveys on self-reported BPD symptomology and sexual history. Bivariate and multivariate analyses conducted in this study provided insights into the association of experiencing BPD symptoms and engaging in survival sex. Results indicate that some symptoms of BPD are robustly correlated with engaging in survival sex among homeless adult women. Implications for service agencies and others working with at-risk female populations are discussed.

  9. Accelerated failure time models for semi-competing risks data in the presence of complex censoring.

    PubMed

    Lee, Kyu Ha; Rondeau, Virginie; Haneuse, Sebastien

    2017-04-10

    Statistical analyses that investigate risk factors for Alzheimer's disease (AD) are often subject to a number of challenges. Some of these challenges arise due to practical considerations regarding data collection such that the observation of AD events is subject to complex censoring including left-truncation and either interval or right-censoring. Additional challenges arise due to the fact that study participants under investigation are often subject to competing forces, most notably death, that may not be independent of AD. Towards resolving the latter, researchers may choose to embed the study of AD within the "semi-competing risks" framework for which the recent statistical literature has seen a number of advances including for the so-called illness-death model. To the best of our knowledge, however, the semi-competing risks literature has not fully considered analyses in contexts with complex censoring, as in studies of AD. This is particularly the case when interest lies with the accelerated failure time (AFT) model, an alternative to the traditional multiplicative Cox model that places emphasis away from the hazard function. In this article, we outline a new Bayesian framework for estimation/inference of an AFT illness-death model for semi-competing risks data subject to complex censoring. An efficient computational algorithm that gives researchers the flexibility to adopt either a fully parametric or a semi-parametric model specification is developed and implemented. The proposed methods are motivated by and illustrated with an analysis of data from the Adult Changes in Thought study, an on-going community-based prospective study of incident AD in western Washington State.

  10. Treatment should be considered a competing risk when predicting natural conception in subfertile women.

    PubMed

    Van Geloven, N; Broeze, K A; Bossuyt, P M M; Zwinderman, A H; Mol, B W

    2012-03-01

    Prediction of natural conception in subfertile couples can help to differentiate between couples who should have immediate treatment and couples who can aim for natural conception for some time. Natural conception rates are often estimated using standard techniques such as Kaplan-Meier or Cox proportional hazard models. These estimates can be biased by incorrect handling of data from women who start assisted reproductive technology therapy before the end of the follow-up period. This paper discusses the validity and the impact of the assumption of non-informative censoring as used in the Kaplan-Meier and Cox models. In a cohort of 5360 subfertile couples with suspected tubal pathology, the probability of natural conception and the prognostic value of additional tests for tubal pathology were estimated using traditional methods and with a competing risks analysis. The estimated probability of natural conception within 3 years was almost 2-fold higher when assuming non-informative censoring compared with the competing risks model, 41 versus 22%. The prognostic value of tests was more conservative using the competing risks model than with the traditional methods, the fecundity rate ratio for Chlamydia antibody testing was 0.72 versus 0.67, for hysterosalpingography, 0.83 versus 0.71 and for diagnostic laparoscopy, 0.89 versus 0.74. Given the improbable validity of the non-informative censoring assumption, the predictions of natural conception and of the prognostic value of tests are likely to be overestimated by the traditional analytic methods. We suggest the use of competing risks models as an alternative, more conservative, form of analysis when predicting natural conception and evaluating prognostic fertility tests.

  11. Survival risk assessment for primary blast exposures to the head.

    PubMed

    Rafaels, Karin; Bass, Cameron R Dale; Salzar, Robert S; Panzer, Matthew B; Woods, William; Feldman, Sanford; Cummings, Thomas; Capehart, Bruce

    2011-11-01

    Many soldiers returning from the current conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan have had at least one exposure to an explosive event and a significant number have symptoms consistent with traumatic brain injury. Although blast injury risk functions have been determined and validated for pulmonary injury, there is little information on the blast levels necessary to cause blast brain injury. Anesthetized male New Zealand White rabbits were exposed to varying levels of shock tube blast exposure focused on the head, while their thoraces were protected. The specimens were euthanized and evaluated when the blast resulted in respiratory arrest that was non-responsive to resuscitation or at 4?h post-exposure. Injury was evaluated by gross examination and histological evaluation. The fatality data from brain injury were then analyzed using Fisher's exact test to determine a brain fatality risk function. Greater blast intensity was associated with post-blast apnea and the need for mechanical ventilation. Gross examination revealed multifocal subdural hemorrhages, most often near the brainstem, at more intense levels of exposure. Histological evaluation revealed subdural and subarachnoid hemorrhages in the non-responsive respiratory-arrested specimens. A fatality risk function from blast exposure to the head was determined for the rabbit specimens with an LD(50) at a peak overpressure of 750?kPa. Scaling techniques were used to predict injury risk at other blast overpressure/duration combinations. The fatality risk function showed that the blast level needed to cause fatality from an overpressure wave exposure to the head was greater than the peak overpressure needed to cause fatality from pulmonary injury. This risk function can be used to guide future research for blast brain injury by providing a realistic fatality risk to guide the design of protection or to evaluate injury.

  12. Variable selection in subdistribution hazard frailty models with competing risks data

    PubMed Central

    Do Ha, Il; Lee, Minjung; Oh, Seungyoung; Jeong, Jong-Hyeon; Sylvester, Richard; Lee, Youngjo

    2014-01-01

    The proportional subdistribution hazards model (i.e. Fine-Gray model) has been widely used for analyzing univariate competing risks data. Recently, this model has been extended to clustered competing risks data via frailty. To the best of our knowledge, however, there has been no literature on variable selection method for such competing risks frailty models. In this paper, we propose a simple but unified procedure via a penalized h-likelihood (HL) for variable selection of fixed effects in a general class of subdistribution hazard frailty models, in which random effects may be shared or correlated. We consider three penalty functions (LASSO, SCAD and HL) in our variable selection procedure. We show that the proposed method can be easily implemented using a slight modification to existing h-likelihood estimation approaches. Numerical studies demonstrate that the proposed procedure using the HL penalty performs well, providing a higher probability of choosing the true model than LASSO and SCAD methods without losing prediction accuracy. The usefulness of the new method is illustrated using two actual data sets from multi-center clinical trials. PMID:25042872

  13. Covariate adjustment of cumulative incidence functions for competing risks data using inverse probability of treatment weighting.

    PubMed

    Neumann, Anke; Billionnet, Cécile

    2016-06-01

    In observational studies without random assignment of the treatment, the unadjusted comparison between treatment groups may be misleading due to confounding. One method to adjust for measured confounders is inverse probability of treatment weighting. This method can also be used in the analysis of time to event data with competing risks. Competing risks arise if for some individuals the event of interest is precluded by a different type of event occurring before, or if only the earliest of several times to event, corresponding to different event types, is observed or is of interest. In the presence of competing risks, time to event data are often characterized by cumulative incidence functions, one for each event type of interest. We describe the use of inverse probability of treatment weighting to create adjusted cumulative incidence functions. This method is equivalent to direct standardization when the weight model is saturated. No assumptions about the form of the cumulative incidence functions are required. The method allows studying associations between treatment and the different types of event under study, while focusing on the earliest event only. We present a SAS macro implementing this method and we provide a worked example. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. A method for evaluating competency in assessment and management of suicide risk.

    PubMed

    Hung, Erick K; Binder, Renée L; Fordwood, Samantha R; Hall, Stephen E; Cramer, Robert J; McNiel, Dale E

    2012-01-01

    Although health professionals increasingly are expected to be able to assess and manage patients' risk for suicide, few methods are available to evaluate this competency. This report describes development of a competency-assessment instrument for suicide risk-assessment (CAI-S), and evaluates its use in an objective structured clinical examination (OSCE). The authors developed the CAI-S on the basis of the literature on suicide risk-assessment and management, and consultation with faculty focus groups from three sites in a large academic psychiatry department. The CAI-S structures faculty ratings regarding interviewing and data collection, case formulation and presentation, treatment-planning, and documentation. To evaluate the CAI-S, 31 faculty members used it to rate the performance of 31 learners (26 psychiatric residents and 5 clinical psychology interns) who participated in an OSCE. After interviewing a standardized patient, learners presented their risk-assessment findings and treatment plans. Faculty used the CAI-S to structure feedback to the learners. In a subsidiary study of interrater reliability, six faculty members rated video-recorded suicide risk-assessments. The CAI-S showed good internal consistency, reliability, and interrater reliability. Concurrent validity was supported by the finding that CAI-S ratings were higher for senior learners than junior learners, and were higher for learners with more clinical experience with suicidal patients than learners with less clinical experience. Faculty and learners rated the method as helpful for structuring feedback and supervision. The findings support the usefulness of the CAI-S for evaluating competency in suicide risk-assessment and management.

  15. Evaluation of genetic variants in association with colorectal cancer risk and survival in Asians.

    PubMed

    Wang, Nan; Lu, Yingchang; Khankari, Nikhil K; Long, Jirong; Li, Hong-Lan; Gao, Jing; Gao, Yu-Tang; Xiang, Yong-Bing; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Zheng, Wei

    2017-09-15

    Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified over 40 genetic loci associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. The association of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at these loci with CRC risk and survival has not been adequately evaluated in East Asians. GWAS-identified CRC risk variants were used to construct weighted genetic risk scores (GRSs). We evaluated these GRSs in association with CRC risk in 3,303 CRC cases and 3,553 controls using logistic regression models. Associations with overall and CRC-specific survival were assessed in 731 CRC patients using Cox regression models. The association between the GRSs (overall and Asian-specific) and CRC risk was approximately twofold (highest vs. lowest quintile), and the shape of the dose-response was linear (ptrend  = 1.24 × 10(-13) and 3.02 × 10(-14) for overall GRS and Asian-specific GRS, respectively). The association of the GRS with CRC risk was stronger among those with a family history of CRC (pinteraction  = 0.007). Asian-specific GRS using previously reported survival SNPs increased risk for mortality and the shape of the dose-response was linear for CRC-specific and all-cause mortality (ptrend  = 0.01 and 0.006, respectively). Furthermore, the minor alleles of rs6983267 and rs1957636 were associated with worse CRC-specific and overall survival. We show that GRSs constructed using GWAS-identified common variants are strongly associated with CRC risk in Asians. We confirm previous findings for the possible association between some SNPs with survival, and provide evidence for two additional CRC risk variants that may be related to CRC survival. © 2017 UICC.

  16. Effect of centre volume and high donor risk index on liver allograft survival

    PubMed Central

    Ozhathil, Deepak K; Li, YouFu; Smith, Jillian K; Tseng, Jennifer F; Saidi, Reza F; Bozorgzadeh, Adel; Shah, Shimul A

    2011-01-01

    Background A growth in the utilization of high-risk allografts is reflective of a critical national shortage and the increasing waiting list mortality. Using risk-adjusted models, the aim of the present study was to determine whether a volume–outcome relationship existed among liver transplants at high risk for allograft failure. Methods From 2002 to 2008, the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) database for all adult deceased donor liver transplants (n = 31 587) was queried. Transplant centres (n = 102) were categorized by volume into tertiles: low (LVC; 31 cases/year), medium (MVC: 64 cases/year) and high (HVC: 102 cases/year). Donor risk comparison groups were stratified by quartiles of the Donor Risk Index (DRI) spectrum: low risk (DRI ≤ 1.63), moderate risk (1.64 > DRI > 1.90), high risk (1.91 > DRI > 2.26) and very high risk (DRI ≥ 2.27). Results HVC more frequently used higher-risk livers (median DRI: LVC: 1.82, MVC: 1.90, HVC: 1.97; P < 0.0001) and achieved better risk adjusted allograft survival outcomes compared with LVC (HR: 0.90, 95%CI: 0.85–0.95). For high and very high risk groups, transplantation at a HVC did contribute to improved graft survival [high risk: hazard ratio (HR): 0.85, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.76–0.96; Very High Risk: HR: 0.88, 95%CI: 0.78–0.99]. Conclusion While DRI remains an important aspect of allograft survival prediction models, liver transplantation at a HVC appears to result in improved allograft survival with high and very high risk DRI organs compared with LVC. PMID:21689227

  17. A Model-Free Machine Learning Method for Risk Classification and Survival Probability Prediction.

    PubMed

    Geng, Yuan; Lu, Wenbin; Zhang, Hao Helen

    2014-01-01

    Risk classification and survival probability prediction are two major goals in survival data analysis since they play an important role in patients' risk stratification, long-term diagnosis, and treatment selection. In this article, we propose a new model-free machine learning framework for risk classification and survival probability prediction based on weighted support vector machines. The new procedure does not require any specific parametric or semiparametric model assumption on data, and is therefore capable of capturing nonlinear covariate effects. We use numerous simulation examples to demonstrate finite sample performance of the proposed method under various settings. Applications to a glioma tumor data and a breast cancer gene expression survival data are shown to illustrate the new methodology in real data analysis.

  18. A Competence-Based Science Learning Framework Illustrated through the Study of Natural Hazards and Disaster Risk Reduction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oyao, Sheila G.; Holbrook, Jack; Rannikmäe, Miia; Pagunsan, Marmon M.

    2015-01-01

    This article proposes a competence-based learning framework for science teaching, applied to the study of "big ideas", in this case to the study of natural hazards and disaster risk reduction (NH&DRR). The framework focuses on new visions of competence, placing emphasis on nurturing connectedness and behavioral actions toward…

  19. The Learning and Competency Development of Master Teachers in Alternative High Schools for At-Risk Youth: A Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williams, Nida W.

    2012-01-01

    This qualitative case study was designed to explore how master teachers in transfer high schools learn the competencies they perceive are required to engage at-risk students so that they persist and graduate. The study is based on the following assumptions: (1) The requisite teacher competencies can be defined and identified and, in fact,…

  20. From Reading Readiness to Reading Competence: The Role of Self-Regulation in At-Risk Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Leann E.; Borkowski, John G.; Whitman, Thomas L.

    2008-01-01

    This study investigated how self-regulation contributes to the development of reading competence in an at-risk sample of 157 children born to adolescent mothers. It was hypothesized that reading readiness at age 5 would shape self-regulation at age 10, which in turn would influence reading competence at age 14. Based on structural equation…

  1. A Competence-Based Science Learning Framework Illustrated through the Study of Natural Hazards and Disaster Risk Reduction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oyao, Sheila G.; Holbrook, Jack; Rannikmäe, Miia; Pagunsan, Marmon M.

    2015-01-01

    This article proposes a competence-based learning framework for science teaching, applied to the study of "big ideas", in this case to the study of natural hazards and disaster risk reduction (NH&DRR). The framework focuses on new visions of competence, placing emphasis on nurturing connectedness and behavioral actions toward…

  2. Risk and survival outcomes of radiation-induced CNS tumors.

    PubMed

    Lee, Jessica W; Wernicke, A Gabriella

    2016-08-01

    Patients treated with cranial radiation are at risk of developing secondary CNS tumors. Understanding the incidence, treatment, and long-term outcomes of radiation-induced CNS tumors plays a role in clinical decision-making and patient education. Additionally, as meningiomas and pituitary tumors have been detected at increasing rates across all ages and may potentially be treated with radiation, it is important to know and communicate the risk of secondary tumors in children and adults. After conducting an extensive literature search, we identified publications that report incidence and long-term outcomes of radiation-induced CNS tumors. We reviewed 14 studies in children, which reported that radiation confers a 7- to 10-fold increase in subsequent CNS tumors, with a 20-year cumulative incidence ranging from 1.03 to 28.9 %. The latency period for secondary tumors ranged from 5.5 to 30 years, with gliomas developing in 5-10 years and meningiomas developing around 15 years after radiation. We also reviewed seven studies in adults, where the two strongest studies showed no increased risk while the remaining studies found a higher risk compared to the general population. The latency period for secondary CNS tumors in adults ranged from 5 to 34 years. Treatment and long-term outcomes of radiation-induced CNS tumors have been documented in four case series, which did not conclusively demonstrate that secondary CNS tumors fared worse than primary CNS tumors. Radiation-induced CNS tumors remain a rare occurrence that should not by itself impede radiation treatment. Additional investigation is needed on the risk of radiation-induced tumors in adults and the long-term outcomes of these tumors.

  3. Estimating the concordance probability in a survival analysis with a discrete number of risk groups.

    PubMed

    Heller, Glenn; Mo, Qianxing

    2016-04-01

    A clinical risk classification system is an important component of a treatment decision algorithm. A measure used to assess the strength of a risk classification system is discrimination, and when the outcome is survival time, the most commonly applied global measure of discrimination is the concordance probability. The concordance probability represents the pairwise probability of lower patient risk given longer survival time. The c-index and the concordance probability estimate have been used to estimate the concordance probability when patient-specific risk scores are continuous. In the current paper, the concordance probability estimate and an inverse probability censoring weighted c-index are modified to account for discrete risk scores. Simulations are generated to assess the finite sample properties of the concordance probability estimate and the weighted c-index. An application of these measures of discriminatory power to a metastatic prostate cancer risk classification system is examined.

  4. Chronic kidney disease in dogs in UK veterinary practices: prevalence, risk factors, and survival.

    PubMed

    O'Neill, D G; Elliott, J; Church, D B; McGreevy, P D; Thomson, P C; Brodbelt, D C

    2013-01-01

    The prevalence for chronic kidney disease (CKD) in dogs varies widely (0.05-3.74%). Identified risk factors include advancing age, specific breeds, small body size, and periodontal disease. To estimate the prevalence and identify risk factors associated with CKD diagnosis and survival in dogs. Purebred dogs were hypothesized to have higher CKD risk and poorer survival characteristics than crossbred dogs. A merged clinical database of 107,214 dogs attending 89 UK veterinary practices over a 2-year period (January 2010-December 2011). A longitudinal study design estimated the apparent prevalence (AP) whereas the true prevalence (TP) was estimated using Bayesian analysis. A nested case-control study design evaluated risk factors. Survival analysis used the Kaplan-Meier survival curve method and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression modeling. The CKD AP was 0.21% (95% CI: 0.19-0.24%) and TP was 0.37% (95% posterior credibility interval 0.02-1.44%). Significant risk factors included increasing age, being insured, and certain breeds (Cocker Spaniel, Cavalier King Charles Spaniel). Cardiac disease was a significant comorbid disorder. Significant clinical signs included halitosis, weight loss, polyuria/polydipsia, urinary incontinence, vomiting, decreased appetite, lethargy, and diarrhea. The median survival time from diagnosis was 226 days (95% CI 112-326 days). International Renal Interest Society stage and blood urea nitrogen concentration at diagnosis were significantly associated with hazard of death due to CKD. Chronic kidney disease compromises dog welfare. Increased awareness of CKD risk factors and association of blood biochemistry results with survival time should facilitate diagnosis and optimize case management to improve animal survival and welfare. Copyright © 2013 by the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

  5. Competing risk of atherosclerotic risk factors for arterial and venous thrombosis in a general population: the Tromso study.

    PubMed

    Brækkan, Sigrid K; Hald, Erin M; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B; Njølstad, Inger; Wilsgaard, Tom; Rosendaal, Frits R; Hansen, John-Bjarne

    2012-02-01

    To investigate and compare the impact of traditional atherosclerotic risk factors for the risk of arterial and venous thrombosis, taking into account competing risks. In 1994-1995, 26,185 subjects were screened in the Tromsø study. Information on traditional atherosclerotic risk factors was obtained by physical examination, blood samples, and questionnaires. Subjects were followed to the first incident event of myocardial infarction (MI) or venous thromboembolism (VTE), or December 31, 2005. During a median of 10.8 years of follow-up, there were 1279 cases of incident MI and 341 VTE events. Advancing age and high body mass index were both associated with MI and VTE. Hazard ratio per decade of age was 2.34 (95% CI: 2.25-2.43) for MI and 1.87 (1.74-2.01) for VTE, and 3 kg/m(2) increase in body mass index was associated with 1.16 (1.11-1.21) and 1.20 (1.12-1.29) increased risk of MI and VTE, respectively. Blood pressure, high levels of triglycerides and total cholesterol, low HDL cholesterol, self-reported diabetes, and smoking were all associated with increased risk of MI but not associated with VTE. Our findings imply that traditional atherosclerotic risk factors, such as smoking, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes mellitus are not shared by arterial and venous thrombosis.

  6. Evaluation of Death among the Patients Undergoing Permanent Pacemaker Implantation: A Competing Risks Analysis

    PubMed Central

    GHAEM, Haleh; GHORBANI, Mohammad; ZARE DORNIANI, Samira

    2017-01-01

    Background: Permanent artificial pacemaker is one of the important therapies for treatment of cardiac conduction system problems. The present study aimed to determine the association between some predictive variables and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the patients who had undergone pacemaker implantation. Methods: This study was conducted on 1207 patients who had undergone permanent pacemaker implantation in the hospitals affiliated with Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Iran, from Mar 2002 to Mar 2012. The variables that existed in the patients’ medical records included sex, diabetes mellitus, obesity, cerebrovascular accident, cardiomegaly, smoking, hypertension, ischemic heart disease, congenital heart disease, sick sinus syndrome, and atrial fibrillation. Competing risks model was used to assess the association between the predictive variables and cause-specific (i.e., cardiac and vascular) mortality. Results: The patients’ mean age was 66.32±17.92 yr (70.62±14.45 yr in the patients with single-chamber pacemakers vs. 61.91±17.69 yr in those with two-chamber pacemakers) (P<0.001). Sick sinus syndrome and age increased the risk of all-cause mortality, while two-chamber pacemaker decreased this risk. Obesity increased the risk of cardiac death, and diabetes mellitus and heart valve disease increased the risk of vascular death. Conclusion: The variables predicting mortality in all-cause model were completely different from those in cause-specific model. Moreover, death in such patients may occur due to reasons other than pacemaker. Therefore, future studies, particularly prospective ones, are recommended to use competing risks models. PMID:28828325

  7. Evaluation of Death among the Patients Undergoing Permanent Pacemaker Implantation: A Competing Risks Analysis.

    PubMed

    Ghaem, Haleh; Ghorbani, Mohammad; Zare Dorniani, Samira

    2017-06-01

    Permanent artificial pacemaker is one of the important therapies for treatment of cardiac conduction system problems. The present study aimed to determine the association between some predictive variables and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the patients who had undergone pacemaker implantation. This study was conducted on 1207 patients who had undergone permanent pacemaker implantation in the hospitals affiliated with Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Iran, from Mar 2002 to Mar 2012. The variables that existed in the patients' medical records included sex, diabetes mellitus, obesity, cerebrovascular accident, cardiomegaly, smoking, hypertension, ischemic heart disease, congenital heart disease, sick sinus syndrome, and atrial fibrillation. Competing risks model was used to assess the association between the predictive variables and cause-specific (i.e., cardiac and vascular) mortality. The patients' mean age was 66.32±17.92 yr (70.62±14.45 yr in the patients with single-chamber pacemakers vs. 61.91±17.69 yr in those with two-chamber pacemakers) (P<0.001). Sick sinus syndrome and age increased the risk of all-cause mortality, while two-chamber pacemaker decreased this risk. Obesity increased the risk of cardiac death, and diabetes mellitus and heart valve disease increased the risk of vascular death. The variables predicting mortality in all-cause model were completely different from those in cause-specific model. Moreover, death in such patients may occur due to reasons other than pacemaker. Therefore, future studies, particularly prospective ones, are recommended to use competing risks models.

  8. Obesity and head and neck cancer risk and survival by human papillomavirus serology.

    PubMed

    Tan, Xinmiao; Nelson, Heather H; Langevin, Scott M; McClean, Michael; Marsit, Carmen J; Waterboer, Tim; Pawlita, Michael; Kelsey, Karl T; Michaud, Dominique S

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies examining the association of body mass index (BMI) with risk of and survival from head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) have been inconsistent, although an inverse association has been noted for obesity and risk of HNSCC in several studies. Previous studies have not examined whether these associations differ by human papillomavirus (HPV) status. We utilized the resources of a population-based case-control study of HNSCC from the greater Boston area (959 cases and 1,208 controls were eligible for this analysis). Anthropometric history was collected through personal interviews, and HPV status was assessed using serology. We analyzed the association between BMI (assessed 5 years prior to disease incidence) and disease risk and survival using logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression, respectively. After adjusting for known risk factors, the association between obesity and overall risk of HNSCC was not significant (OR 0.79, 95 % CI 0.60-1.04). However, obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m(2)) was inversely associated with HNSCC risk among HPV-seronegative cases (OR 0.48, 95 % CI 0.32-0.70), but not among HPV-seropositive cases (OR 0.91, 95 % CI 0.68-1.21). BMI was not associated with survival overall or by HPV status. However, being overweight (BMI 25-29.9 kg/m(2)) was associated with longer survival among HPV-seropositive smokers (HR 0.48, 95 % CI 0.31-0.74). Our findings are consistent with previous observations that obesity is inversely associated with the risk of HNSCC; however, this association appears to be confined to HPV-seronegative cases. Overall, obesity was not associated with HNSCC survival overall or by HPV status. Obesity is associated with risk of non-HPV HNSCC, but not HPV HNSCC.

  9. Survival after partial and radical nephrectomy for high-risk disease: A propensity-matched comparison

    PubMed Central

    Maurice, Matthew J.; Zhu, Hui; Kim, Simon; Abouassaly, Robert

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Increasingly, partial nephrectomy has been applied to high-risk disease without evidence that its survival benefits can be extrapolated to this entity. We aimed to compare overall survival after partial vs. radical nephrectomy in patients with high-risk renal cell carcinoma. Methods: Using the National Cancer Data Base, we identified patients who underwent partial or radical nephrectomy for high-risk disease between 2003 and 2006. High-risk disease was defined as the presence of adverse pathological features within the primary tumour, namely high-grade or unfavourable histology, T3 stage, or both. After matching the partial and radical nephrectomy groups based on propensity scores, 1680, 276, and 76 patients with high-grade or unfavourable histology, T3 stage, or both adverse pathologic features, respectively, were available for analysis. Five-year overall survival was compared after partial vs. radical nephrectomy for each high-risk cohort using the Kaplan-Meier and log rank tests. Results: Partial nephrectomy was associated with a statistically significant improvement in five-year overall survival compared to radical nephrectomy for small tumours (median size 3.0 cm; interquartile range 2.1–4.5 cm) with high-grade or unfavourable histology (87% vs. 81%; p<0.01) or with pT3a stage (82% vs. 71%; p<0.01). For patients concomitantly harbouring both adverse pathologic features, no difference in survival was detected (p=0.21). Conclusions: Partial nephrectomy is associated with survival benefits in patients with adverse pathologic features, suggesting that renal preservation is not only safe, but also potentially beneficial for high-risk disease. Due to inherent selection bias associated with partial nephrectomy use, prospective validation of these findings is needed. PMID:27695581

  10. Proportional hazards model for competing risks data with missing cause of failure

    PubMed Central

    Hyun, Seunggeun; Sun, Yanqing

    2012-01-01

    We consider the semiparametric proportional hazards model for the cause-specific hazard function in analysis of competing risks data with missing cause of failure. The inverse probability weighted equation and augmented inverse probability weighted equation are proposed for estimating the regression parameters in the model, and their theoretical properties are established for inference. Simulation studies demonstrate that the augmented inverse probability weighted estimator is doubly robust and the proposed method is appropriate for practical use. The simulations also compare the proposed estimators with the multiple imputation estimator of Lu and Tsiatis (2001). The application of the proposed method is illustrated using data from a bone marrow transplant study. PMID:22468017

  11. [Determination of the Association Between Smoking and Recurrence of Ischemic Stroke using a Competing Risks Model].

    PubMed

    Zhan, Feng-yu; Yan, Pei-jing; Zhang, Juan; Ran, Meng-dong; Zhu, Cai-rong

    2015-09-01

    To determine the association between smoking and ischemic stroke recurrence. We conducted a prospective follow-up study of patients with first incidence of stroke. A competing risks model was used to establish the association between smoking and stroke recurrence. A total of 594 stroke patients were recruited. Among the 361 male patients, 59 recurrent events and 13 competing events occurred. Among the 233 female patients (all were non-smokers), 49 recurrent events and 11 competing events occurred. Adjusted for confounding factors, male nonsmokers exposed to passive smoking had a SHR of 3. 040 in comparison with those without exposure to smoking and the P value was borderline significant. Those who smoked 100-200 cigarettes a year had a SHR of 0. 947. The other groups with exposure to smoking had a greater than 1 SHR, but without statistical significance. Moreover, no significant associations between recurrence of ischemic stroke and smoking index/cumulative smoking were found. The female nonsmokers who had exposure to passive smoking only at follow-ups had a SHR of 1. 4 (and all other groups had less than 1 SHR). But no statistical significances were found in the comparisons. Further research with a larger sample size is needed to establish the association between smoking and recurrence of ischemic stroke.

  12. Restoration Survival: Revisiting Patients' Risk Factors Through a Systematic Literature Review.

    PubMed

    van de Sande, F H; Collares, K; Correa, M B; Cenci, M S; Demarco, F F; Opdam, Njm

    2016-09-01

    A literature review was conducted to investigate the influence of patient-related factors on restoration survival in posterior permanent teeth as well as to report the methods used to collect these factors. The selection of articles on longitudinal clinical studies investigating the survival of posterior restorations (except full crowns and temporary fillings) and including patient-related factors was performed by applying predefined criteria. The review was organized into two parts, the first describing how patient factors were assessed in the studies (n=45) and the second presenting the statistical significance (n=27) and size of the effect (n=11) of these factors on restoration survival. Patient-related factors mentioned in the studies included age; gender; caries risk; caries activity/severity; decayed, missing, filled teeth; number of restorations; oral hygiene; and bruxism, among others. Sixteen studies included the patient age or age range in the analysis, which was found to be significant in 47% of the studies. Regarding gender, four of 17 reports found a significant effect on survival, showing more failures for men in three studies. The caries risk profile or related variables were included in the analysis of 15 studies, and a significant effect on survival was reported for high-caries-risk individuals (or related variables) in 67% of these studies. Bruxism was also found to influence restoration survival in three of six studies where this variable was investigated. Some issues were found regarding the reporting of methods used to classify patients according to risk and were thoroughly discussed. In view of the information gathered in this review, the assessment of patient factors along with other variables should become part of clinical studies investigating restoration survival, since several of these factors were shown to influence the failure of restorations, regardless of the material type.

  13. A prospective study of phobic anxiety, risk of ovarian cancer, and survival among patients.

    PubMed

    Poole, Elizabeth M; Kubzansky, Laura D; Sood, Anil K; Okereke, Olivia I; Tworoger, Shelley S

    2016-05-01

    In ovarian cancer patients and mouse models, psychosocial stress is associated with higher circulating markers of angiogenesis and cell migration, impaired immune response, and increasing tumor burden and aggressiveness. In the Nurses' Health Studies (NHS/NHSII), we assessed whether phobic anxiety, a marker of chronic distress, was associated with risk of incident ovarian cancer as well as survival among ovarian cancer patients. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to model the relative risks (RRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) of ovarian cancer incidence and survival by categories of the Crown-Crisp phobic anxiety index (CCI). We identified 779 cases of ovarian cancer during 2,497,892 person-years of follow-up. For baseline CCI (NHS: 1988; NHSII: 1993), we observed a statistically nonsignificant increased risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (RR for CCI ≥ 4 vs. 0 or 1: 1.14; 95 % CI 0.96-1.36). However, when we updated CCI (NHS: 2004; NHSII: 2005), the associations were attenuated. Pre-diagnosis CCI was not associated with ovarian cancer survival (RR for ≥4 vs. 0 or 1: 1.00; 95 % CI 0.77-1.31); results were similar for post-diagnosis CCI. Distress, as measured by phobic anxiety symptoms, was not associated with ovarian cancer risk, although we cannot rule out a modest association. Future research should explore the role of phobic anxiety and other forms of psychological distress and ovarian cancer risk and survival.

  14. On the Importance of Accounting for Competing Risks in Pediatric Cancer Trials Designed to Delay or Avoid Radiotherapy: I. Basic Concepts and First Analyses

    SciTech Connect

    Tai, Bee-Choo; Grundy, Richard G.; Machin, David

    2010-04-15

    Purpose: In trials designed to delay or avoid irradiation among children with malignant brain tumor, although irradiation after disease progression is an important event, patients who have disease progression may decline radiotherapy (RT), or those without disease progression may opt for elective RT. To accurately describe the cumulative need for RT in such instances, it is crucial to account for these distinct events and to evaluate how each contributes to the delay or advancement of irradiation via a competing risks analysis. Methods and Materials: We describe the summary of competing events in such trials using competing risks methods based on cumulative incidence functions and Gray's test. The results obtained are contrasted with standard survival methods based on Kaplan-Meier curves, cause-specific hazard functions and log-rank test. Results: The Kaplan-Meier method overestimates all event-specific rates. The cause-specific hazard analysis showed reduction in hazards for all events (A: RT after progression; B: no RT after progression; C: elective RT) among children with ependymoma. For event A, a higher cumulative incidence was reported for ependymoma. Although Gray's test failed to detect any difference (p = 0.331) between histologic subtypes, the log-rank test suggested marginal evidence (p = 0.057). Similarly, for event C, the log-rank test found stronger evidence of reduction in hazard among those with ependymoma (p = 0.005) as compared with Gray's test (p = 0.086). Conclusions: To evaluate treatment differences, failing to account for competing risks using appropriate methodology may lead to incorrect interpretations.

  15. Fine and Gray competing risk regression model to study the cause-specific under-five child mortality in Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Mohammad, Khandoker Akib; Fatima-Tuz-Zahura, Most; Bari, Wasimul

    2017-01-28

    The cause-specific under-five mortality of Bangladesh has been studied by fitting cumulative incidence function (CIF) based Fine and Gray competing risk regression model (1999). For the purpose of analysis, Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS), 2011 data set was used. Three types of mode of mortality for the under-five children are considered. These are disease, non-disease and other causes. Product-Limit survival probabilities for the under-five child mortality with log-rank test were used to select a set of covariates for the regression model. The covariates found to have significant association in bivariate analysis were only considered in the regression analysis. Potential determinants of under-five child mortality due to disease is size of child at birth, while gender of child, NGO (non-government organization) membership of mother, mother's education level, and size of child at birth are due to non-disease and age of mother at birth, NGO membership of mother, and mother's education level are for the mortality due to other causes. Female participation in the education programs needs to be increased because of the improvement of child health and government should arrange family and social awareness programs as well as health related programs for women so that they are aware of their child health.

  16. Confidence interval procedures for system reliability and applications to competing risks models.

    PubMed

    Hong, Yili; Meeker, William Q

    2014-04-01

    System reliability depends on the reliability of the system's components and the structure of the system. For example, in a competing risks model, the system fails when the weakest component fails. The reliability function and the quantile function of a complicated system are two important metrics for characterizing the system's reliability. When there are data available at the component level, the system reliability can be estimated by using the component level information. Confidence intervals (CIs) are needed to quantify the statistical uncertainty in the estimation. Obtaining system reliability CI procedures with good properties is not straightforward, especially when the system structure is complicated. In this paper, we develop a general procedure for constructing a CI for the system failure-time quantile function by using the implicit delta method. We also develop general procedures for constructing a CI for the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the system. We show that the recommended procedures are asymptotically valid and have good statistical properties. We conduct simulations to study the finite-sample coverage properties of the proposed procedures and compare them with existing procedures. We apply the proposed procedures to three applications; two applications in competing risks models and an application with a k-out-of-s system. The paper concludes with some discussion and an outline of areas for future research.

  17. Vertical modelling: Analysis of competing risks data with missing causes of failure.

    PubMed

    Nicolaie, M A; van Houwelingen, H C; Putter, H

    2015-12-01

    We propose vertical modelling as a natural approach to the problem of analysis of competing risks data when failure types are missing for some individuals. Under a natural missing-at-random assumption for these missing failure types, we use the observed data likelihood to estimate its parameters and show that the all-cause hazard and the relative hazards appearing in vertical modelling are indeed key quantities of this likelihood. This fact has practical implications in that it suggests vertical modelling as a simple and attractive method of analysis in competing risks with missing causes of failure; all individuals are used in estimating the all-cause hazard and only those with non-missing cause of failure for relative hazards. The relative hazards also appear in a multiple imputation approach to the same problem proposed by Lu and Tsiatis and in the EM algorithm. We compare the vertical modelling approach with the method of Goetghebeur and Ryan for a breast cancer data set, highlighting the different aspects they contribute to the data analysis.

  18. Frailty modeling for clustered competing risks data with missing cause of failure.

    PubMed

    Lee, Minjung; Ha, Il Do; Lee, Youngjo

    2017-02-01

    Competing risks data often occur within a center in multi-center clinical trials where the event times within a center may be correlated due to unobserved factors across individuals. In this paper, we consider the cause-specific proportional hazards model with a shared frailty to model the association between the event times within a center in the framework of competing risks. We use a hierarchical likelihood approach, which does not require any intractable integration over the frailty terms. In a clinical trial, cause of death information may not be observed for some patients. In such a case, analyses through exclusion of cases with missing cause of death may lead to biased inferences. We propose a hierarchical likelihood approach for fitting the cause-specific proportional hazards model with a shared frailty in the presence of missing cause of failure. We use multiple imputation methods to address missing cause of death information under the assumption of missing at random. Simulation studies show that the proposed procedures perform well, even if the imputation model is misspecified. The proposed methods are illustrated with data from EORTC trial 30791 conducted by European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC).

  19. Survival and Risk Comparison of Campylobacter jejuni on Various Processed Meat Products

    PubMed Central

    Hong, Soo Hyeon; Kim, Han Sol; Yoon, Ki Sun

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate survival kinetics of Campylobacter jejuni on various processed meat products (dry-cured ham, round ham with/without sodium nitrite, garlic seasoned ham with/without sodium nitrite, and sausage without sodium nitrite). Additionally, a semi-quantitative risk assessment of C. jejuni on various processed meat products was conducted using FDA-iRISK 1.0. Inoculated processed meat products with 6.0 ± 0.5 log CFU/g of C. jejuni were vacuum packed and stored at 4, 10, 17, 24, 30, and 36 °C. Survival curves were fitted to the Weibull model to obtain the delta values of C. jejuni on various processed meat products. The most rapid death of C. jejuni was observed on dry-cured ham, followed by sausage without sodium nitrite. The results of semi-quantitative risk assessment indicate that dry-cured ham represented the lowest risk among all samples. C. jejuni on processed meats presented a greater risk at 4 °C than at 10 °C. The risk of ham was greater than the risk of sausage, regardless of type. Among all samples, the highest risk of C. jejuni was observed in round ham without sodium nitrite. Overall, our data indicates that risk of processed meat products due to C. jejuni is relatively low. PMID:27294947

  20. Survival and Risk Comparison of Campylobacter jejuni on Various Processed Meat Products.

    PubMed

    Hong, Soo Hyeon; Kim, Han Sol; Yoon, Ki Sun

    2016-06-09

    The objective of this study was to investigate survival kinetics of Campylobacter jejuni on various processed meat products (dry-cured ham, round ham with/without sodium nitrite, garlic seasoned ham with/without sodium nitrite, and sausage without sodium nitrite). Additionally, a semi-quantitative risk assessment of C. jejuni on various processed meat products was conducted using FDA-iRISK 1.0. Inoculated processed meat products with 6.0 ± 0.5 log CFU/g of C. jejuni were vacuum packed and stored at 4, 10, 17, 24, 30, and 36 °C. Survival curves were fitted to the Weibull model to obtain the delta values of C. jejuni on various processed meat products. The most rapid death of C. jejuni was observed on dry-cured ham, followed by sausage without sodium nitrite. The results of semi-quantitative risk assessment indicate that dry-cured ham represented the lowest risk among all samples. C. jejuni on processed meats presented a greater risk at 4 °C than at 10 °C. The risk of ham was greater than the risk of sausage, regardless of type. Among all samples, the highest risk of C. jejuni was observed in round ham without sodium nitrite. Overall, our data indicates that risk of processed meat products due to C. jejuni is relatively low.

  1. Risk-adjusted survival after tissue versus mechanical aortic valve replacement: a 23-year assessment.

    PubMed

    Gaca, Jeffrey G; Clare, Robert M; Rankin, J Scott; Daneshmand, Mani A; Milano, Carmelo A; Hughes, G Chad; Wolfe, Walter G; Glower, Donald D; Smith, Peter K

    2013-11-01

    Detailed analyses of risk-adjusted outcomes after mitral valve surgery have documented significant survival decrements with tissue valves at any age. Several recent studies of prosthetic aortic valve replacement (AVR) also have suggested a poorer performance of tissue valves, although analyses have been limited to small matched series. The study aim was to test the hypothesis that AVR with tissue valves is associated with a lower risk-adjusted survival, as compared to mechanical valves. Between 1986 and 2009, primary isolated AVR, with or without coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), was performed with currently available valve types in 2148 patients (1108 tissue valves, 1040 mechanical). Patients were selected for tissue valves to be used primarily in the elderly. Baseline and operative characteristics were documented prospectively with a consistent variable set over the entire 23-year period. Follow up was obtained with mailed questionnaires, supplemented by National Death Index searches. The average time to death or follow up was seven years, and follow up for survival was 96.2% complete. Risk-adjusted survival characteristics for the two groups were evaluated using a Cox proportional hazards model with stepwise selection of candidate variables. Differences in baseline characteristics between groups were (tissue versus mechanical): median age 73 versus 61 years; non-elective surgery 32% versus 28%; CABG 45% versus 35%; median ejection fraction 55% versus 55%; renal failure 6% versus 1%; diabetes 18% versus 7% (p<0.01). Unadjusted Kaplan-Meier survival was significantly lower with tissue than mechanical valves; however, after risk adjustment for the adverse profiles of tissue valve patients, no significant difference was observed in survival after tissue or mechanical AVR. Thus, the hypothesis did not hold, and risk-adjusted survival was equivalent, of course qualified by the fact that selection bias was evident. With selection criteria that employed tissue AVR

  2. A competing risk analysis of sequential complication development in Asian type 2 diabetes mellitus patients.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Li-Jen; Chen, Jeng-Huei; Lin, Ming-Yen; Chen, Li-Chia; Lao, Chun-Huan; Luh, Hsing; Hwang, Shang-Jyh

    2015-10-28

    This retrospective cohort study investigated the progression risk of sequential complication in Asian type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients using the Taiwan Pay-for-Performance Diabetes Registry and claim data from November 2003 to February 2009. 226,310 adult T2D patients without complication were followed from diagnosis to complications, including myocardial infarction (MI), other ischemic heart disease (IHD), congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke, chronic kidney disease (CKD), retinopathy, amputation, death or to the end of study. Cumulative incidences (CIs) of first and second complications were analyzed in 30 and 4 years using the cumulative incidence competing risk method. IHD (29.8%), CKD (24.5%) and stroke (16.0%) are the most common first complications. The further development of T2D complications depends on a patient's existing complication profiles. Patients who initially developed cardiovascular complications had a higher risk (9.2% to 24.4%) of developing IHD or CKD, respectively. All-cause mortality was the most likely consequence for patients with a prior MI (12.0%), so as stroke in patients with a prior MI (10.8%) or IHD (8.9%). Patients with CKD had higher risk of developing IHD (16.3%), stroke (8.9%) and all-cause mortality (8.7%) than end-stage renal disease (4.0%). Following an amputation, patients had a considerable risk of all-cause mortality (42.1%).

  3. Competing-Risks Mortality After Radiotherapy vs. Observation for Localized Prostate Cancer: A Population-based Study

    SciTech Connect

    Abdollah, Firas; Sun, Maxine; Schmitges, Jan; Thuret, Rodolphe; Tian, Zhe; Shariat, Shahrokh F.; Briganti, Alberto; Jeldres, Claudio; Perrotte, Paul; Montorsi, Francesco; Karakiewicz, Pierre I.

    2012-09-01

    Purpose: Contemporary patients with localized prostate cancer (PCa) are more frequently treated with radiotherapy. However, there are limited data on the effect of this treatment on cancer-specific mortality (CSM). Our objective was to test the relationship between radiotherapy and survival in men with localized PCa and compare it with those treated with observation. Methods: A population-based cohort identified 68,797 men with cT1-T2 PCa treated with radiotherapy or observation between the years 1992 and 2005. Propensity-score matching was used to minimize potential bias related to treatment assignment. Competing-risks analyses tested the effect of treatment type (radiotherapy vs. observation) on CSM, after accounting to other-cause mortality. All analyses were carried out within PCa risk, baseline comorbidity status, and age groups. Results: Radiotherapy was associated with more favorable 10-year CSM rates than observation in patients with high-risk PCa (8.8 vs. 14.4%, hazard ratio [HR]: 0.59, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.50-0.68). Conversely, the beneficial effect of radiotherapy on CSM was not evident in patients with low-intermediate risk PCa (3.7 vs. 4.1%, HR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.80-1.04). Radiotherapy was beneficial in elderly patients (5.6 vs. 7.3%, HR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.59-0.80). Moreover, it was associated with improved CSM rates among patients with no comorbidities (5.7 vs. 6.5%, HR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.67-0.98), one comorbidity (4.6 vs. 6.0%, HR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.75-0.99), and more than two comorbidities (4.2 vs. 5.0%, HR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.65-0.96). Conclusions: Radiotherapy substantially improves CSM in patients with high-risk PCa, with little or no benefit in patients with low-/intermediate-risk PCa relative to observation. These findings must be interpreted within the context of the limitations of observational data.

  4. Sociodemographic Risk, Developmental Competence, and PTSD Symptoms in Young Children Exposed to Interpersonal Trauma in Early Life

    PubMed Central

    Enlow, Michelle Bosquet; Blood, Emily; Egeland, Byron

    2014-01-01

    Children under age six years are disproportionately exposed to interpersonal trauma, including maltreatment and witnessing intimate partner violence (IPV), and may be particularly susceptible to negative sequelae. However, young children have generally been neglected from trauma research; thus, little is known about the factors influencing vulnerability to traumatic stress responses and other negative outcomes in early life. This study examined associations among interpersonal trauma exposure, sociodemographic risk, developmental competence, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms in 200 children assessed prospectively from birth to 1st grade via home and laboratory observations, record reviews, and maternal and teacher interviews. Greater trauma exposure and sociodemographic risk and lower developmental competence predicted more severe PTSD symptoms. Developmental competence partially mediated the association between exposures and symptoms. Trauma exposure fully mediated the association between sociodemographic risk and symptoms. Neither sociodemographic risk nor developmental competence moderated trauma exposure effects on symptoms. The findings suggest that (a) exposure to maltreatment and IPV has additive effects on posttraumatic stress risk in early life, (b) associations between sociodemographic adversity and poor mental health may be attributable to increased trauma exposure in disadvantaged populations, and (c) early exposures have a negative cascade effect on developmental competence and child mental health. PMID:24490247

  5. Combined blockade of VEGFR-3 and VLA-1 markedly promotes high-risk corneal transplant survival.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Hui; Grimaldo, Sammy; Yuen, Don; Chen, Lu

    2011-08-17

    PURPOSE. High-risk corneal transplantation refers to grafting performed on inflamed and highly vascularized host beds. It represents a clinical dilemma because the rejection rate can be as high as 90%, irrespective of current treatment modalities. This study was conducted to investigate whether combined blockade of VEGFR-3 (vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-3) and VLA-1 (very late antigen-1) promotes high-risk transplant survival and how it correlates with corneal lymphangiogenesis and hemangiogenesis before and after transplantation. METHODS. High-risk corneal transplantation was performed between normal C57BL/6 (donor) and inflamed BALB/c (recipient) mice. The recipients were randomized to receive intraperitoneal injections of VEGFR-3 and VLA-1-neutralizing antibodies or their controls twice a week for up to 8 weeks after transplantation. Corneal grafts were evaluated by ophthalmic slit-lamp biomicroscopy and analyzed by Kaplan-Meier survival curve. Additionally, whole-mount corneas before and after transplantation were examined by immunofluorescent microscopic assays, and the correlation between lymphatic or blood vessel distribution and transplant outcome was analyzed. RESULTS. The combined blockade markedly promotes 90% survival of high-risk transplants. This strategy specifically modified host beds by selective inhibition of lymphangiogenesis but not hemangiogenesis. A strong correlation was also identified between high-risk transplant rejection and severe lymphatic invasion reaching the donor-graft border. CONCLUSIONS. These novel findings not only provide a new and potentially powerful strategy to promote high-risk transplant survival, they also confirm a critical role of high-degree lymphangiogenesis in mediating high-risk transplant rejection. Results from this study may also shed new light on our understanding and management of other lymphatic- and immune-related diseases in general.

  6. Carfilzomib significantly improves the progression-free survival of high-risk patients in multiple myeloma

    PubMed Central

    Fonseca, Rafael; Siegel, David; Dimopoulos, Meletios A.; Špička, Ivan; Masszi, Tamás; Hájek, Roman; Rosiñol, Laura; Goranova-Marinova, Vesselina; Mihaylov, Georgi; Maisnar, Vladimír; Mateos, Maria-Victoria; Wang, Michael; Niesvizky, Ruben; Oriol, Albert; Jakubowiak, Andrzej; Minarik, Jiri; Palumbo, Antonio; Bensinger, William; Kukreti, Vishal; Ben-Yehuda, Dina; Stewart, A. Keith; Obreja, Mihaela; Moreau, Philippe

    2016-01-01

    The presence of certain high-risk cytogenetic abnormalities, such as translocations (4;14) and (14;16) and deletion (17p), are known to have a negative impact on survival in multiple myeloma (MM). The phase 3 study ASPIRE (N = 792) demonstrated that progression-free survival (PFS) was significantly improved with carfilzomib, lenalidomide, and dexamethasone (KRd), compared with lenalidomide and dexamethasone (Rd) in relapsed MM. This preplanned subgroup analysis of ASPIRE was conducted to evaluate KRd vs Rd by baseline cytogenetics according to fluorescence in situ hybridization. Of 417 patients with known cytogenetic risk status, 100 patients (24%) were categorized with high-risk cytogenetics (KRd, n = 48; Rd, n = 52) and 317 (76%) were categorized with standard-risk cytogenetics (KRd, n = 147; Rd, n = 170). For patients with high-risk cytogenetics, treatment with KRd resulted in a median PFS of 23.1 months, a 9-month improvement relative to treatment with Rd. For patients with standard-risk cytogenetics, treatment with KRd led to a 10-month improvement in median PFS vs Rd. The overall response rates for KRd vs Rd were 79.2% vs 59.6% (high-risk cytogenetics) and 91.2% vs 73.5% (standard-risk cytogenetics); approximately fivefold as many patients with high- or standard-risk cytogenetics achieved a complete response or better with KRd vs Rd (29.2% vs 5.8% and 38.1% vs 6.5%, respectively). KRd improved but did not abrogate the poor prognosis associated with high-risk cytogenetics. This regimen had a favorable benefit-risk profile in patients with relapsed MM, irrespective of cytogenetic risk status, and should be considered a standard of care in these patients. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT01080391. PMID:27439911

  7. Carfilzomib significantly improves the progression-free survival of high-risk patients in multiple myeloma.

    PubMed

    Avet-Loiseau, Hervé; Fonseca, Rafael; Siegel, David; Dimopoulos, Meletios A; Špička, Ivan; Masszi, Tamás; Hájek, Roman; Rosiñol, Laura; Goranova-Marinova, Vesselina; Mihaylov, Georgi; Maisnar, Vladimír; Mateos, Maria-Victoria; Wang, Michael; Niesvizky, Ruben; Oriol, Albert; Jakubowiak, Andrzej; Minarik, Jiri; Palumbo, Antonio; Bensinger, William; Kukreti, Vishal; Ben-Yehuda, Dina; Stewart, A Keith; Obreja, Mihaela; Moreau, Philippe

    2016-09-01

    The presence of certain high-risk cytogenetic abnormalities, such as translocations (4;14) and (14;16) and deletion (17p), are known to have a negative impact on survival in multiple myeloma (MM). The phase 3 study ASPIRE (N = 792) demonstrated that progression-free survival (PFS) was significantly improved with carfilzomib, lenalidomide, and dexamethasone (KRd), compared with lenalidomide and dexamethasone (Rd) in relapsed MM. This preplanned subgroup analysis of ASPIRE was conducted to evaluate KRd vs Rd by baseline cytogenetics according to fluorescence in situ hybridization. Of 417 patients with known cytogenetic risk status, 100 patients (24%) were categorized with high-risk cytogenetics (KRd, n = 48; Rd, n = 52) and 317 (76%) were categorized with standard-risk cytogenetics (KRd, n = 147; Rd, n = 170). For patients with high-risk cytogenetics, treatment with KRd resulted in a median PFS of 23.1 months, a 9-month improvement relative to treatment with Rd. For patients with standard-risk cytogenetics, treatment with KRd led to a 10-month improvement in median PFS vs Rd. The overall response rates for KRd vs Rd were 79.2% vs 59.6% (high-risk cytogenetics) and 91.2% vs 73.5% (standard-risk cytogenetics); approximately fivefold as many patients with high- or standard-risk cytogenetics achieved a complete response or better with KRd vs Rd (29.2% vs 5.8% and 38.1% vs 6.5%, respectively). KRd improved but did not abrogate the poor prognosis associated with high-risk cytogenetics. This regimen had a favorable benefit-risk profile in patients with relapsed MM, irrespective of cytogenetic risk status, and should be considered a standard of care in these patients. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT01080391. © 2016 by The American Society of Hematology.

  8. Risk management in laboratory medicine: quality assurance programs and professional competence.

    PubMed

    Sciacovelli, Laura; Secchiero, Sandra; Zardo, Lorena; D'Osualdo, Alessandra; Plebani, Mario

    2007-01-01

    To guarantee excellent performance and service, the process of identifying and treating error risks must be integrated into the total testing process. Quality Assurance Programs (QAPs) represent an important tool that allows us to identify errors and pinpoint any need for further systematic investigations, and to rectify procedures to improve the inputs and processes by which the service is delivered. The models used by the laboratory to assure quality and manage the risk of errors have been modified in line with an approach in which the identification of quality goals and the redefinition of professionals duties and responsibilities are indispensable. Error risk is currently high in some areas of laboratory activity, and QAP is needed now more than ever. The present paper provides some descriptive examples of an approach that can be followed to manage an External Quality Assessment Scheme (EQAS) and quality indicators (QIs), the main tools used by laboratories to assure the quality of their service, for the prevention of error risk. In particular, we describe the correct approach to choose EQAS, to use information from the EQAS report, to design a QI model, and to analyze any QI data. The examples highlight that any well-designed quality system can be ineffective if it is not managed by highly competent professionals with a deep sense of responsibility.

  9. A competing-risk-based score for predicting twenty-year risk of incident diabetes: the Beijing Longitudinal Study of Ageing study

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Xiangtong; Chen, Zhenghong; Fine, Jason Peter; Liu, Long; Wang, Anxin; Guo, Jin; Tao, Lixin; Mahara, Gehendra; Yang, Kun; Zhang, Jie; Tian, Sijia; Li, Haibin; Liu, Kuo; Luo, Yanxia; Zhang, Feng; Tang, Zhe; Guo, Xiuhua

    2016-01-01

    Few risk tools have been proposed to quantify the long-term risk of diabetes among middle-aged and elderly individuals in China. The present study aimed to develop a risk tool to estimate the 20-year risk of developing diabetes while incorporating competing risks. A three-stage stratification random-clustering sampling procedure was conducted to ensure the representativeness of the Beijing elderly. We prospectively followed 1857 community residents aged 55 years and above who were free of diabetes at baseline examination. Sub-distribution hazards models were used to adjust for the competing risks of non-diabetes death. The cumulative incidence function of twenty-year diabetes event rates was 11.60% after adjusting for the competing risks of non-diabetes death. Age, body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, health status, and physical activity were selected to form the score. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.76 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.72–0.80), and the optimism-corrected AUC was 0.78 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.69–0.87) after internal validation by bootstrapping. The calibration plot showed that the actual diabetes risk was similar to the predicted risk. The cut-off value of the risk score was 19 points, marking mark the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients, which exhibited a sensitivity of 0.74 and specificity of 0.65. PMID:27849048

  10. Quantifying discrimination of Framingham risk functions with different survival C statistics.

    PubMed

    Pencina, Michael J; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Song, Linye

    2012-07-10

    Cardiovascular risk prediction functions offer an important diagnostic tool for clinicians and patients themselves. They are usually constructed with the use of parametric or semi-parametric survival regression models. It is essential to be able to evaluate the performance of these models, preferably with summaries that offer natural and intuitive interpretations. The concept of discrimination, popular in the logistic regression context, has been extended to survival analysis. However, the extension is not unique. In this paper, we define discrimination in survival analysis as the model's ability to separate those with longer event-free survival from those with shorter event-free survival within some time horizon of interest. This definition remains consistent with that used in logistic regression, in the sense that it assesses how well the model-based predictions match the observed data. Practical and conceptual examples and numerical simulations are employed to examine four C statistics proposed in the literature to evaluate the performance of survival models. We observe that they differ in the numerical values and aspects of discrimination that they capture. We conclude that the index proposed by Harrell is the most appropriate to capture discrimination described by the above definition. We suggest researchers report which C statistic they are using, provide a rationale for their selection, and be aware that comparing different indices across studies may not be meaningful. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. "Medical high risk" designation is not associated with survival after carotid artery stenting.

    PubMed

    Yuo, Theodore H; Goodney, Philip P; Powell, Richard J; Cronenwett, Jack L

    2008-02-01

    While medical high risk (MHR) has been proposed as an indication for carotid artery stenting (CAS), the impact of MHR on long-term survival and stroke after CAS has not been described. A retrospective chart review of CAS procedures at our institution was performed. One hundred seventy-nine consecutive patients who underwent 196 CAS procedures were classified by MHR status based on cardiac, pulmonary, and renal criteria routinely used in high-risk clinical trials. Survival and stroke rates were compared after 90 CAS procedures in MHR patients vs 106 CAS procedures in normal risk patients. Survival results were also compared with 365 contemporaneous carotid endarterectomy (CEA) procedures in 346 patients. The mean age of CAS patients was 72 years, with 87% having a smoking history, 85% hypertension, 38% diabetes, 39% symptomatic, and 74% documented coronary artery disease. Mean follow-up was 23 months. Recurrent stenosis after CEA comprised 21% of all CAS procedures. During the 30-day post-procedure period, there were five minor strokes, one major stroke, and one death, for a combined stroke/death rate of 3.6%. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated mortality of 5% at 1 year and 21% at 3 years for the entire cohort. Cox regression analysis found that MHR designation was not associated with increased mortality or an increase in a composite end point of death or stroke. MHR patients had mortality of 4% at 1 year and 22% at 3 years. Normal risk patients had mortality of 6% at 1 year and 20% at 3 years. Preoperative age over 80 years old, low density lipoprotein (LDL) > or =160 mg/dL, and serum creatinine > or =1.5 mg/dL conferred statistically significant risk for death (Hazard ratios: 2.9, 4.3, and 2.4, respectively). As a point of comparison, a contemporaneous group of CEA patients were analyzed similarly. After adjusting for age over 80 years old and serum creatinine > or =1.5 mg/dL, there was no survival difference between MHR patients undergoing CAS or CEA. The

  12. Interleukin genes and associations with colon and rectal cancer risk and overall survival

    PubMed Central

    Bondurant, Kristina L.; Lundgreen, Abbie; Herrick, Jennifer S.; Kadlubar, Susan; Wolff, Roger K.; Slattery, Martha L.

    2012-01-01

    Interleukins are a group of cytokines that contribute to growth and differentiation, cell migration, and inflammatory and anti-inflammatory responses by the immune system. In this study we examined genetic variation in genes from various anti-inflammatory and pro-inflammatory interleukins to determine association with colon and rectal cancer risk and overall survival. Data from two population-based incident studies of colon cancer (1555 cases and 1956 controls) and rectal cancer (754 cases and 954 controls) were utilized. After controlling for multiple comparisons, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from four genes, IL3, IL6R, IL8, IL15, were associated with increased colon cancer risk and CXCR1, and CXCR2 were significantly associated with increased rectal cancer risk. Only SNPs from genes within the IL-8 pathway (IL8, CXCR1, and CXCR2) showed a significant association with both colon and rectal cancer risk. Several SNPs interacted significantly with IL8 and IFNG SNPs and with aspirin/NSAID, cigarette smoking, estrogen use and BMI. For both colon and rectal cancer, increasing numbers of risk alleles were associated with increased hazard of death from cancer; the estimated hazard of death for colon cancer for the highest category of risk alleles was 1.74 (95% CI 1.18–2.56) and 1.96 (95% CI 1.28–2.99) for rectal cancer. These data suggest interleukin genes play a role in risk and overall survival for colon and rectal cancer. PMID:22674296

  13. The influence of menstrual risk factors on tumor characteristics and survival in postmenopausal breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Orgéas, Chantal C; Hall, Per; Rosenberg, Lena U; Czene, Kamila

    2008-01-01

    Introduction Hormonal factors are implicated in tumor progression and it is possible that factors influencing breast cancer induction could affect prognosis. Our study investigated the effects of menstrual risk factors on tumor characteristics and survival in postmenopausal breast cancer. Methods We used a nationwide, population-based, case-case design of 2,640 Swedish women who were 50 to 74 years old and had postmenopausal breast cancer during 1993 to 1995. Follow-up was conducted until 31 December 2000. We used polytomous multiple logistic regression to investigate the relationships between menstrual factors (age at menarche, cycle length, irregular menstruation, lifetime number of menstrual cycles, and age at menopause), tumor characteristics (size, grade, estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor [PR] status, lymph node involvement, and histology), and Cox proportional hazards modeling for 5-year survival. Results Younger ages at menarche were significantly associated with grade and lymph node involvement. Women with an age at menarche of 11 years or younger had a more than twofold excess risk of medium-grade (odds ratio [OR] = 2.05; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00 to 4.18) and high-grade (OR = 2.04; 95% CI 1.01 to 4.16) tumors. Early menarche significantly increased the risk of lymph node metastases. Survival was poorest in women with the earliest age at menarche, with a 72% increased risk of dying within 5 years after diagnosis (hazard ratio = 1.72; 95% CI 1.02 to 2.89). No significant associations were observed for other menstrual factors with tumor characteristics or survival. Conclusions Age at menarche has a significant impact on breast cancer prognosis and survival. It remains to be established whether the associations are attributable to age at menarche directly or are associated with the early-life physiological events of breast development and carcinogenesis also taking place during childhood and puberty, as menarche is only the culmination of

  14. UNC13A confers risk for sporadic ALS and influences survival in a Spanish cohort.

    PubMed

    Vidal-Taboada, Jose Manuel; Lopez-Lopez, Alan; Salvado, Maria; Lorenzo, Laura; Garcia, Cecilia; Mahy, Nicole; Rodríguez, Manuel J; Gamez, Josep

    2015-10-01

    To investigate the association of functional variants of the human UNC13A gene with the risk of ALS, survival and the disease progression rate in a Spanish ALS cohort. 136 sporadic ALS (sALS) patients and 487 healthy controls were genotyped for the UNC13A rs12608932 variant. Clinical characterization of ALS patients included gender, age at first symptom, initial topography, disease progression rate, and survival. Genetic association was analyzed under five inheritance models. The sALS patients with the rs12608932(CC) genotype had an increased risk of ALS under a recessive genetic model [OR 2.16; 95 % CI (1.23, 3.8), p = 0.009; corrected p = 0.028]. Genotypes with a C allele are also associated with increased risk [OR 1.47; 95 % CI (1.11, 1.95); p = 0.008; corrected p = 0.023] under an additive model. sALS patients with a C/C genotype had a shorter survival than patients with A/A and A/C genotypes [HR 1.44; 95 % CI (1.11, 1.873); p = 0.007] under a recessive model. In an overdominant model, heterozygous patients had a longer survival than homozygous patients [HR 0.36; 95 % CI (0.22, 0.59); p = 0.001]. The rs12608932 genotypes modify the progression of symptoms measured using the ALSFRS-R. No association with age of onset, initial topography or rate of decline in FVC was found. Our results show that rs12608932 is a risk factor for ALS in the Spanish population and replicate the findings described in other populations. The rs12608932 is a modifying factor for survival and disease progression rate in our series. Our results also corroborated that it did not influence the age of onset.

  15. Patient death as a censoring event or competing risk event in models of nursing home placement.

    PubMed

    Szychowski, Jeff M; Roth, David L; Clay, Olivio J; Mittelman, Mary S

    2010-02-10

    Participant death is often observed in studies that examine predictors of events, such as hospitalization or institutionalization, in older adult populations. The Cox proportional hazards modeling of the target event, whereby death is treated as a censoring event, is the standard analysis in this competing risks situation. However, the assumption of noninformative censoring applied to a frequently occurring competing event like death may be invalid and complicate interpretation in terms of the probability of the event. Multiple cause-specific hazard (CSH) models can be estimated, but ambiguities may arise when interpreting covariate effects across multiple CSH models and in terms of the cumulative incidence function (CIF). Alternatively, one can model the proportional hazards of the subdistribution of the CIF and evaluate the covariate effects on the CIF directly. We examine and compare these two approaches with nursing home (NH) placement data from a randomized controlled trial of a counseling and support intervention for spouse-caregivers of patients with Alzheimer's disease. CSHs for NH placement (where death is treated as a censoring event) and death (where NH placement is treated as a censoring event) and subdistribution hazards of the CIF for NH placement are modeled separately. In the presence of multiple covariates, the intervention effect is significant in both approaches, but the interpretation of the covariate effects requires joint evaluation of all estimated models.

  16. Comparison of risk-adjusted survival in two Scandinavian Level-I trauma centres.

    PubMed

    Ghorbani, Poya; Ringdal, Kjetil Gorseth; Hestnes, Morten; Skaga, Nils Oddvar; Eken, Torsten; Ekbom, Anders; Strömmer, Lovisa

    2016-05-10

    Assessment of trauma-system performance is important for improving the care of injured patients. The aim of the study was to compare risk-adjusted survival in two Scandinavian Level-I trauma centres. This was an observational, retrospective study of prospectively-collected trauma registry data for patients >14 years from Karolinska University Hospital - Solna (KUH), Sweden, and Oslo University Hospital - Ullevål (OUH), Norway, from 2009-2011. Probability of survival (Ps) was calculated according to the Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) method. Risk-adjusted survival per patient was calculated by assigning every patient a value corresponding to gained or lost fractional life: Each survivor contributed a reward of 1-Ps and each death a penalty of -Ps. The sum of penalties and rewards, corresponding to the difference between expected and actual mortality, was compared between the centres. We present the data as excess survivors per 100 trauma patients. There were 4485 admissions at KUH and 3591 at OUH. The proportion of severely injured patients was higher at OUH compared with KUH (Injury Severity Score [ISS] >15: 33.9 % vs. 21.1 %, p <0.001). OUH had a larger proportion of patients >65 years (16.0 % vs. 13.4 %, p <0.001) and greater comorbidity (ASA-PS ≥3: 14.6 % vs. 6.9 %, p <0.001) compared with KUH. The frequency of helicopter transport and presence of prehospital physicians was higher at OUH compared with KUH (27.6 % vs. 15.5 % and 30.5 % vs. 3.7 %, both p <0.001). Secondary admissions were 5.2-fold more common at OUH compared with KUH (p <0.001). There were no differences in 30-day mortality for severely injured patients (ISS >15). Risk-adjusted survival rate was higher at OUH than at KUH for primary (0.59 vs. 0.51) but lower for secondary (1.41 vs. 2.85) admissions (both p <0.001). Adjustments for age as a continuous variable and comorbidity should be made when comparing risk-adjusted survival between hospitals, but this is not possible

  17. Genetic polymorphisms in the vitamin D pathway in relation to lung cancer risk and survival

    PubMed Central

    Kong, Jinyu; Xu, Fangxiu; Qu, Jinli; Wang, Yu; Gao, Ming; Yu, Herbert; Qian, Biyun

    2015-01-01

    Studies have suggested that vitamin D may have protective effects against cancer development or tumor progression. To search for additional evidence, we investigated the role of genetic polymorphisms involved in the vitamin D pathway in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We evaluated common genetic polymorphisms associated with the vitamin D pathway in relation to NSCLC in a case-control study of 603 newly diagnosed NSCLC patients and 661 matched healthy controls. Seven single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genotyped, the expression of CYP27B1 and CYP24A1 were measured in 153 tumor samples and their associations with genotypes and patient survival were also analyzed. In the case-control comparison, we found SNP rs3782130 (CYP27B1), rs7041 (GC), rs6068816 and rs4809957 (CYP24A1) associated with NSCLC risk. The risk of NSCLC was increased with the number of risk alleles. CYP27B1 and CYP24A1 expression were significantly different between tumor and normal tissues in NSCLC. High CYP27B1 expression was associated with better overall survival, and the expression was different by the rs3782130 genotype. The study suggests that some genetic polymorphisms involved in the vitamin D pathway may associate with NSCLC risk, and one of the polymorphisms (rs3782130) may affect gene expression and patient survival. PMID:25544771

  18. Comparing predictions among competing risks models with time-dependent covariates

    PubMed Central

    Cortese, Giuliana; Gerds, Thomas A.; Andersen, Per K.

    2013-01-01

    Prediction of cumulative incidences is often a primary goal in clinical studies with several end-points. We compare predictions among competing risks models with time-dependent covariates. For a series of landmark time points we study the predictive accuracy of a multi-state regression model, where the time-dependent covariate represents an intermediate state and two alternative landmark approaches (Cortese & Andersen, 2010). At each landmark time point, the prediction performance is measured as the t-year expected Brier score where pseudovalues are constructed in order to deal with right censored event times. We apply the methods to data from a bone marrow transplant study where graft versus host disease (GvHD) is considered a time-dependent covariate for predicting relapse and death in remission. PMID:23494745

  19. Nonparametric analysis of competing risks data with event category missing at random.

    PubMed

    Gouskova, Natalia A; Lin, Feng-Chang; Fine, Jason P

    2017-03-01

    In competing risks setup, the data for each subject consist of the event time, censoring indicator, and event category. However, sometimes the information about the event category can be missing, as, for example, in a case when the date of death is known but the cause of death is not available. In such situations, treating subjects with missing event category as censored leads to the underestimation of the hazard functions. We suggest nonparametric estimators for the cumulative cause-specific hazards and the cumulative incidence functions which use the Nadaraya-Watson estimator to obtain the contribution of an event with missing category to each of the cause-specific hazards. We derive the propertied of the proposed estimators. Optimal bandwidth is determined, which minimizes the mean integrated squared errors of the proposed estimators over time. The methodology is illustrated using data on lung infections in patients from the United States Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry.

  20. Geometry of the q-exponential distribution with dependent competing risks and accelerated life testing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Fode; Shi, Yimin; Wang, Ruibing

    2017-02-01

    In the information geometry suggested by Amari (1985) and Amari et al. (1987), a parametric statistical model can be regarded as a differentiable manifold with the parameter space as a coordinate system. Note that the q-exponential distribution plays an important role in Tsallis statistics (see Tsallis, 2009), this paper investigates the geometry of the q-exponential distribution with dependent competing risks and accelerated life testing (ALT). A copula function based on the q-exponential function, which can be considered as the generalized Gumbel copula, is discussed to illustrate the structure of the dependent random variable. Employing two iterative algorithms, simulation results are given to compare the performance of estimations and levels of association under different hybrid progressively censoring schemes (HPCSs).

  1. CURRENT STATUS DATA WITH COMPETING RISKS: LIMITING DISTRIBUTION OF THE MLE

    PubMed Central

    Groeneboom, Piet; Maathuis, Marloes H.; Wellner, Jon A.

    2009-01-01

    We study nonparametric estimation for current status data with competing risks. Our main interest is in the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), and for comparison we also consider a simpler ‘naive estimator’. Groeneboom, Maathuis and Wellner [8] proved that both types of estimators converge globally and locally at rate n1/3. We use these results to derive the local limiting distributions of the estimators. The limiting distribution of the naive estimator is given by the slopes of the convex minorants of correlated Brownian motion processes with parabolic drifts. The limiting distribution of the MLE involves a new self-induced limiting process. Finally, we present a simulation study showing that the MLE is superior to the naive estimator in terms of mean squared error, both for small sample sizes and asymptotically. PMID:19888358

  2. On assessing surrogacy in a single trial setting using a semi-competing risks paradigm

    PubMed Central

    Ghosh, Debashis

    2009-01-01

    Summary There has been a recent emphasis on the identification of biomarkers and other biologic measures that may be potentially used as surrogate endpoints in clinical trials. We focus on the setting of data from a single clinical trial. In this paper, we consider a framework in which the surrogate must occur before the true endpoint. This suggests viewing the surrogate and true endpoints as semi-competing risks data; this approach is new to the literature on surrogate endpoints and leads to an asymmetrical treatment of the surrogate and true endpoints. However, such a data structure also conceptually complicates many of the previously considered measures of surrogacy in the literature. We propose novel estimation and inferential procedures for the relative effect and adjusted association quantities proposed by Buyse and Molenberghs (1998, Biometrics, 1014 – 1029). The proposed methodology is illustrated with application to simulated data, as well as to data from a leukemia study. PMID:18759839

  3. A PROSPECTIVE STUDY OF PHOBIC ANXIETY, RISK OF OVARIAN CANCER, AND SURVIVAL AMONG PATIENTS

    PubMed Central

    Poole, Elizabeth M.; Kubzansky, Laura D.; Sood, Anil K.; Okereke, Olivia I.; Tworoger, Shelley S.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose In ovarian cancer patients and mouse models, psychosocial stress is associated with higher circulating markers of angiogenesis and cell migration, impaired immune response, and increasing tumor burden and aggressiveness. In the Nurses’ Health Studies (NHS/NHSII), we assessed whether phobic anxiety, a marker of chronic distress, was associated with risk of incident ovarian cancer as well as survival among ovarian cancer patients. Methods We used Cox proportional hazards regression to model the relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of ovarian cancer incidence and survival by categories of the Crown-Crisp phobic anxiety index (CCI). Results We identified 779 cases of ovarian cancer during 2,497,892 person-years of follow-up. For baseline CCI (NHS: 1988; NHSII: 1993), we observed a statistically non-significant increased risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (RR for CCI ≥4 vs. 0 or 1: 1.14; 95% CI: 0.96–1.36). However, when we updated CCI (NHS: 2004; NHSII: 2005), the associations were attenuated. Pre-diagnosis CCI was not associated with ovarian cancer survival (RR: for ≥4 vs. 0 or 1: 1.00; 95% CI: 0.77–1.31); results were similar for post-diagnosis CCI. Conclusions Distress, as measured by phobic anxiety symptoms, was not associated with ovarian cancer risk, although we cannot rule out a modest association. Future research should explore the role of phobic anxiety and other forms of psychological distress and ovarian cancer risk and survival. PMID:27023470

  4. Long-Term Survival and Risk of Second Cancers After Radiotherapy for Cervical Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Ohno, Tatsuya; Kato, Shingo; Sato, Shinichiro; Fukuhisa, Kenjiro; Nakano, Takashi; Tsujii, Hirohiko; Arai, Tatsuo

    2007-11-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the risk of second cancers after cervical cancer treated with radiotherapy for Asian populations. Methods and Materials: We reviewed 2,167 patients with cervical cancer undergoing radiotherapy between 1961 and 1986. Intracavitary brachytherapy was performed with high-dose rate source (82%) or low-dose rate source (12%). Relative risk (RR), absolute excess risk (AR), and cumulative risk of second cancer were calculated using the Japanese disease expectancy table. For 1,031 patients, the impact of smoking habit on the increasing risk of second cancer was also evaluated. Results: The total number of person-years of follow-up was 25,771, with 60 patients being lost to follow-up. Among the 2,167 patients, 1,063 (49%) survived more than 10 years. Second cancers were observed in 210 patients, representing a significant 1.2-fold risk (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-1.4) of developing second cancer compared with the general population, 1.6% excess risk per person per decade of follow-up, and elevating cumulative risk up to 23.8% (95% CI, 20.3-27.3) at 30 years after radiotherapy. The RR of second cancer was 1.6-fold for patients with the smoking habit and 1.4-fold for those without. Conclusions: Small but significant increased risk of second cancer was observed among Japanese women with cervical cancer mainly treated with high-dose rate brachytherapy. Considering the fact that about half of the patients survived more than 10 years, the benefit of radiotherapy outweighs the risk of developing second cancer.

  5. Incidence and survival of stomach cancer in a high-risk population of Chile

    PubMed Central

    Heise, Katy; Bertran, Enriqueta; Andia, Marcelo E; Ferreccio, Catterina

    2009-01-01

    AIM: To study the incidence and survival rate of stomach cancer (SC) and its associated factors in a high risk population in Chile. METHODS: The population-based cancer registry of Valdivia, included in the International Agency for Research on Cancer system, covers 356 396 residents of Valdivia Province, Southern Chile. We studied all SC cases entered in this Registry during 1998-2002 (529 cases). Population data came from the Chilean census (2002). Standardized incidence rates per 100 000 inhabitants (SIR) using the world population, cumulative risk of developing cancer before age 75, and rate ratios by sex, age, ethnicity and social factors were estimated. Relative survival (Ederer II method) and age-standardized estimates (Brenner method) were calculated. Specific survival rates (Kaplan-Meier) were measured at 3 and 5 years and survival curves were analyzed with the Logrank and Breslow tests. Survival was studied in relation to demographics, clinical presentation, laboratory results and medical management of the cases. Those variables significantly associated with survival were later included in a Cox multivariate model. RESULTS: Between 1998 and 2002, 529 primary gastric cancers occurred in Valdivia (crude incidence rate 29.2 per 100 000 inhabitants). Most cases were male (69.0%), residents of urban areas (57.5%) and Hispanic (83.2%), with a low education level (84.5% < 8 school years). SC SIR was higher in men than women (40.8 and 14.8 respectively, P < 0.001), risk factors were low education RR 4.4 (95% CI: 2.9-6.8) and 1.6, (95% CI: 1.1-2.1) for women and men respectively and Mapuche ethnicity only significant for women (RR 2.2, 95% CI: 1.2-3.7). Of all cases, 76.4% were histologically confirmed, 11.5% had a death certificate only (DCO), 56.1% were TNM stage IV; 445 cases (84.1%) were eligible for survival analysis, all completed five years follow-up; 42 remained alive, 392 died of SC and 11 died from other causes. Specific 5-year survival, excluding cases

  6. Connection between competence, usability, environment and risk of falls in elderly adults.

    PubMed

    Leiva-Caro, José Alex; Salazar-González, Bertha Cecilia; Gallegos-Cabriales, Esther Carlota; Gómez-Meza, Marco Vinicio; Hunter, Kathleen F

    2015-01-01

    To determine connections between competence, usability, environment and risk of falls in elderly adults. Correlational descriptive study, 123 elderly adults, both male and female, aged 70 years and older were included. Data was collected via the Tinetti Scale, CESD-7 Scale, Montreal Cognitive Assessment, Usability Questionnaire on Housing and Housing Enabler; and sociodemographic and health background certificate data. For data analysis, descriptive and inferential statistics were used, multivariate linear and logistic regression models were adjusted. 42.0% of the elderly adults had presented with falls, with a higher prevalence in women, and in the group of 70-75 years. The physical environment of the house, gait, and usability were set as risk factors for falls. A negative relationship between usability and depressive symptoms, cognitive health, balance, gait, the social and physical environment was found, p <0.05; and a strong positive correlation between walking and balance, p <0.05. This study helps to better understand the phenomenon of falling, to find a connection between usability with the risk of falls, and other variables.

  7. Connection between competence, usability, environment and risk of falls in elderly adults

    PubMed Central

    Leiva-Caro, José Alex; Salazar-González, Bertha Cecilia; Gallegos-Cabriales, Esther Carlota; Gómez-Meza, Marco Vinicio; Hunter, Kathleen F.

    2015-01-01

    Objective: to determine connections between competence, usability, environment and risk of falls in elderly adults. Method: correlational descriptive study, 123 elderly adults, both male and female, aged 70 years and older were included. Data was collected via the Tinetti Scale, CESD-7 Scale, Montreal Cognitive Assessment, Usability Questionnaire on Housing and Housing Enabler; and sociodemographic and health background certificate data. For data analysis, descriptive and inferential statistics were used, multivariate linear and logistic regression models were adjusted. Results: 42.0% of the elderly adults had presented with falls, with a higher prevalence in women, and in the group of 70-75 years. The physical environment of the house, gait, and usability were set as risk factors for falls. A negative relationship between usability and depressive symptoms, cognitive health, balance, gait, the social and physical environment was found, p <0.05; and a strong positive correlation between walking and balance, p <0.05. Conclusion: this study helps to better understand the phenomenon of falling, to find a connection between usability with the risk of falls, and other variables. PMID:26626006

  8. Genetic polymorphisms in MMP 2, 9 and 3 genes modify lung cancer risk and survival

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Matrix metalloproteases (MMPs) are proteolytic enzymes that contribute to all stages of tumour progression, including the later stages of invasion and metastasis. Genetic variants in the MMP genes may influence the biological function of these enzymes and change their role in carcinogenesis and progression. We have investigated the association between the -735 C/T, the -1171 5A/6A, and the -1562 C/T polymorphisms in the MMP2, MMP3 and MMP9 genes, respectively, and the risk and survival of lung cancer. Methods The case-control study includes 879 lung cancer patients and 803 controls from a Caucasian population in Spain (CAPUA study). Genotypes were determined by PCR-RFLP. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using unconditional logistic regression. The Kaplan-Meier method, long-rank test and Cox's were used for the survival analysis. Results The MMP9 -1562 T/T genotype was associated with a statistically significant decreased risk of developing lung cancer (OR = 0.23; 95% CI: 0.06-0.85), whereas no association was found for the MMP2 -735 C/T and MMP3 -1171 5A/6A polymorphisms. The MMP2 -735 T/T genotype was statistically significantly associated with a decreased survival in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients, identified as an independent prognosis factor of survival (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.79; 95% CI: 1.00-3.20). In contrast, no association was found between the MMP3 -1171 5A/6A and the MMP9 -1562 C/T polymorphisms and survival. Conclusions These findings support the hypothesis that the MMP9 -1562 C/T polymorphism is associated with a protective effect against the development of lung cancer and suggest that the MMP2 -735 C/T polymorphism modify the length of survival in NSCLC patients. PMID:22455335

  9. National assessment of early hospitalization after liver transplantation: Risk factors and association with patient survival.

    PubMed

    Sharma, Pratima; Goodrich, Nathan P; Schaubel, Douglas E; Smith, Abigail R; Merion, Robert M

    2017-09-01

    Hospitalization is known to occur frequently in the first 6 months following liver transplantation (LT). Using a novel data linkage between the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, our study has 2 objectives: (1) to determine risk factors for "early" hospitalization (ie, within 6 months of LT); and (2) to quantify the importance of hospitalization history in the first 6 months with respect to subsequent patient survival (ie, survival, conditional on surviving 6 months post-LT). The study population consisted of patients aged ≥18 years who underwent deceased donor LT between January 1, 2003 and December 31, 2010, with Medicare as primary or secondary insurance and were discharged alive from the index LT hospitalization (n = 7220). The early hospitalization rate was 2.76 per patient-year and was significantly associated with many recipient factors (eg, recipient age, hepatitis C, diabetes, poor renal function including dialysis, and recipient of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt procedure before LT), as well as donor race and donation after cardiac death. Conditional on surviving 6 months after LT, the covariate-adjusted death rate increased by 22% for each additional hospitalization occurring in the first 6 months (hazard ratio, 1.22; P < 0.001). In conclusion, several LT recipient factors are significantly associated with early hospitalization. Moreover, a patient's hospitalization profile during follow-up months 0-6 is a very strong predictor of survival thereafter. Efforts and resources should be devoted toward identifying LT recipients at risk for early hospitalization and modifying the actionable risk factors such as hepatitis C, diabetes, and body mass index to improve resource utilization and overall outcomes. Liver Transplantation 23 1143-1152 2017 AASLD. © 2017 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

  10. Effect of autoimmune diseases on risk and survival in histology-specific lung cancer.

    PubMed

    Hemminki, Kari; Liu, Xiangdong; Ji, Jianguang; Sundquist, Jan; Sundquist, Kristina

    2012-12-01

    Patients with autoimmune diseases are at an increased risk of cancer due to underlying dysregulation of the immune system or treatment. Data on cancer incidence, mortality and survival after autoimmune diseases would provide further information on the clinical implications. We systematically analysed data on lung cancer in patients diagnosed with 33 different autoimmune diseases. Standardised incidence ratios (SIRs), standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated for subsequent incident lung cancers or lung cancer deaths up to 2008 in patients hospitalised for autoimmune disease after 1964. Increased risks of lung cancer were recorded for SIRs after 12 autoimmune diseases, SMRs after 11 autoimmune diseases and HRs after two autoimmune diseases. The highest SIRs and SMRs, respectively, were seen after discoid lupus erythematosus (4.71 and 4.80), polymyosistis/dermatomyositis (4.20 and 4.17), systemic lupus erythematosus (2.47 and 2.69), rheumatic fever (2.07 and 2.07) and systemic sclerosis (2.19 and 1.98). Autoimmune disease did not influence survival overall but some autoimmune diseases appeared to impair survival in small cell carcinoma. All autoimmune diseases that had an SIR >2.0 are known to present with lung manifestations, suggesting that the autoimmune process contributes to lung cancer susceptibility. The data on survival are reassuring that autoimmune diseases do not influence prognosis in lung cancer.

  11. Risk factors for postoperative pneumonia after lung cancer surgery and impact of pneumonia on survival.

    PubMed

    Simonsen, Dennis F; Søgaard, Mette; Bozi, Imre; Horsburgh, Charles R; Thomsen, Reimar W

    2015-10-01

    Little is known about risk factors and prognosis for postoperative pneumonia (POP) in patients undergoing therapeutic lung cancer (LC) surgery. We followed a nationwide population-based cohort of 7479 patients with LC surgery in Denmark 1995-2011. We used logistic regression analysis to examine risk factors for POP within 30 days after surgery. Subsequent survival in patients with POP was analyzed with Cox regression. We identified 268 (3.6%) patients with POP. Important risk factors included advanced age (age ≥80 years: (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 3.64; 95% CI: 2.17-6.12) as compared to patients aged 50-59 years), previous pneumonia (aOR = 2.68; 95% CI: 2.02-3.56), obesity (aOR = 1.91; 95% CI: 0.99-3.69), chronic pulmonary disease (aOR = 1.90; 95% CI: 1.40-2.57), alcoholism (aOR = 1.56; 95% CI: 0.81-3.01), and atrial fibrillation (aOR = 1.42; 95% CI: 0.82-2.45). Overall thoracoscopic surgery halved the risk of POP and the highest risk of POP was seen in pneumonectomy performed in open thoracotomy. Among patients surviving the 30-day postoperative period, 31-365 day mortality was 21.6% in POP patients vs. 16.8% in non-POP patients, and 1-5-year mortality was 62.2% vs. 53.0%. Adjusted 31-365 day hazard ratio (HR) of death with POP was 1.31 (95% CI: 1.00-1.73), and 1-5 year HR was 1.22 (95% CI 0.98-1.53). Major risk factors for POP following LC surgery are advanced age, previous pneumonia, obesity, chronic pulmonary disease, alcoholism, and atrial fibrillation. POP is a clinical marker for decreased LC survival. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Bayesian joint modeling of bivariate longitudinal and competing risks data: An application to study patient-ventilator asynchronies in critical care patients.

    PubMed

    Rué, Montserrat; Andrinopoulou, Eleni-Rosalina; Alvares, Danilo; Armero, Carmen; Forte, Anabel; Blanch, Lluis

    2017-08-11

    Mechanical ventilation is a common procedure of life support in intensive care. Patient-ventilator asynchronies (PVAs) occur when the timing of the ventilator cycle is not simultaneous with the timing of the patient respiratory cycle. The association between severity markers and the events death or alive discharge has been acknowledged before, however, little is known about the addition of PVAs data to the analyses. We used an index of asynchronies (AI) to measure PVAs and the SOFA (sequential organ failure assessment) score to assess overall severity. To investigate the added value of including the AI, we propose a Bayesian joint model of bivariate longitudinal and competing risks data. The longitudinal process includes a mixed effects model for the SOFA score and a mixed effects beta regression model for the AI. The survival process is defined in terms of a cause-specific hazards model for the competing risks death or alive discharge. Our model indicates that the SOFA score is strongly related to vital status. PVAs are positively associated with alive discharge but there is not enough evidence that PVAs provide a more accurate indication of death prognosis than the SOFA score alone. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  13. Multicenter study on caries risk assessment in adults using survival Classification and Regression Trees

    PubMed Central

    Arino, Masumi; Ito, Ataru; Fujiki, Shozo; Sugiyama, Seiichi; Hayashi, Mikako

    2016-01-01

    Dental caries is an important public health problem worldwide. This study aims to prove how preventive therapies reduce the onset of caries in adult patients, and to identify patients with high or low risk of caries by using Classification and Regression Trees based survival analysis (survival CART). A clinical data set of 732 patients aged 20 to 64 years in nine Japanese general practices was analyzed with the following parameters: age, DMFT, number of mutans streptococci (SM) and Lactobacilli (LB), secretion rate and buffer capacity of saliva, and compliance with a preventive program. Results showed the incidence of primary carious lesion was affected by SM, LB and compliance with a preventive program; secondary carious lesion was affected by DMFT, SM and LB. Survival CART identified high-risk patients for primary carious lesion according to their poor compliance with a preventive program and SM (≥106 CFU/ml) with a hazard ratio of 3.66 (p = 0.0002). In the case of secondary caries, patients with LB (≥105 CFU/ml) and DMFT (>15) were identified as high risk with a hazard ratio of 3.50 (p < 0.0001). We conclude that preventive programs can be effective in limiting the incidence of primary carious lesion. PMID:27381750

  14. Thrombotic Thrombocytopenic Purpura in Black People: Impact of Ethnicity on Survival and Genetic Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Martino, Suella; Jamme, Mathieu; Deligny, Christophe; Busson, Marc; Loiseau, Pascale; Azoulay, Elie; Galicier, Lionel; Pène, Frédéric; Provôt, François; Dossier, Antoine; Saheb, Samir; Veyradier, Agnès; Coppo, Paul

    2016-01-01

    Black people are at increased risk of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP). Whether clinical presentation of TTP in Black patients has specific features is unknown. We assessed here differences in TTP presentation and outcome between Black and White patients. Clinical presentation was comparable between both ethnic groups. However, prognosis differed with a lower death rate in Black patients than in White patients (2.7% versus 11.6%, respectively, P = .04). Ethnicity, increasing age and neurologic involvement were retained as risk factors for death in a multivariable model (P < .05 all). Sixty-day overall survival estimated by the Kaplan-Meier curves and compared with the Log-Rank test confirmed that Black patients had a better survival than White patients (P = .03). Salvage therapies were similarly performed between both groups, suggesting that disease severity was comparable. The comparison of HLA-DRB1*11, -DRB1*04 and -DQB1*03 allele frequencies between Black patients and healthy Black individuals revealed no significant difference. However, the protective allele against TTP, HLA-DRB1*04, was dramatically decreased in Black individuals in comparison with White individuals. Black people with TTP may have a better survival than White patients despite a comparable disease severity. A low natural frequency of HLA-DRB1*04 in Black ethnicity may account for the greater risk of TTP in this population. PMID:27383202

  15. Thrombotic Thrombocytopenic Purpura in Black People: Impact of Ethnicity on Survival and Genetic Risk Factors.

    PubMed

    Martino, Suella; Jamme, Mathieu; Deligny, Christophe; Busson, Marc; Loiseau, Pascale; Azoulay, Elie; Galicier, Lionel; Pène, Frédéric; Provôt, François; Dossier, Antoine; Saheb, Samir; Veyradier, Agnès; Coppo, Paul

    2016-01-01

    Black people are at increased risk of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP). Whether clinical presentation of TTP in Black patients has specific features is unknown. We assessed here differences in TTP presentation and outcome between Black and White patients. Clinical presentation was comparable between both ethnic groups. However, prognosis differed with a lower death rate in Black patients than in White patients (2.7% versus 11.6%, respectively, P = .04). Ethnicity, increasing age and neurologic involvement were retained as risk factors for death in a multivariable model (P < .05 all). Sixty-day overall survival estimated by the Kaplan-Meier curves and compared with the Log-Rank test confirmed that Black patients had a better survival than White patients (P = .03). Salvage therapies were similarly performed between both groups, suggesting that disease severity was comparable. The comparison of HLA-DRB1*11, -DRB1*04 and -DQB1*03 allele frequencies between Black patients and healthy Black individuals revealed no significant difference. However, the protective allele against TTP, HLA-DRB1*04, was dramatically decreased in Black individuals in comparison with White individuals. Black people with TTP may have a better survival than White patients despite a comparable disease severity. A low natural frequency of HLA-DRB1*04 in Black ethnicity may account for the greater risk of TTP in this population.

  16. Risk factors for acute GVHD and survival after hematopoietic cell transplantation

    PubMed Central

    Arora, Mukta; Flowers, Mary E. D.; Chao, Nelson J.; McCarthy, Philip L.; Cutler, Corey S.; Urbano-Ispizua, Alvaro; Pavletic, Steven Z.; Haagenson, Michael D.; Zhang, Mei-Jie; Antin, Joseph H.; Bolwell, Brian J.; Bredeson, Christopher; Cahn, Jean-Yves; Cairo, Mitchell; Gale, Robert Peter; Gupta, Vikas; Lee, Stephanie J.; Litzow, Mark; Weisdorf, Daniel J.; Horowitz, Mary M.; Hahn, Theresa

    2012-01-01

    Risk factors for acute GVHD (AGVHD), overall survival, and transplant-related mortality were evaluated in adults receiving allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplants (1999-2005) from HLA-identical sibling donors (SDs; n = 3191) or unrelated donors (URDs; n = 2370) and reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research, Minneapolis, MN. To understand the impact of transplant regimen on AGVHD risk, 6 treatment categories were evaluated: (1) myeloablative conditioning (MA) with total body irradiation (TBI) + PBSCs, (2) MA + TBI + BM, (3) MA + nonTBI + PBSCs, (4) MA + nonTBI + BM, (5) reduced intensity conditioning (RIC) + PBSCs, and (6) RIC + BM. The cumulative incidences of grades B-D AGVHD were 39% (95% confidence interval [CI], 37%-41%) in the SD cohort and 59% (95% CI, 57%-61%) in the URD cohort. Patients receiving SD transplants with MA + nonTBI + BM and RIC + PBSCs had significantly lower risks of grades B-D AGVHD than patients in other treatment categories. Those receiving URD transplants with MA + TBI + BM, MA + nonTBI + BM, RIC + BM, or RIC + PBSCs had lower risks of grades B-D AGVHD than those in other treatment categories. The 5-year probabilities of survival were 46% (95% CI, 44%-49%) with SD transplants and 33% (95% CI, 31%-35%) with URD transplants. Conditioning intensity, TBI and graft source have a combined effect on risk of AGVHD that must be considered in deciding on a treatment strategy for individual patients. PMID:22010102

  17. Risk factors for acute GVHD and survival after hematopoietic cell transplantation.

    PubMed

    Jagasia, Madan; Arora, Mukta; Flowers, Mary E D; Chao, Nelson J; McCarthy, Philip L; Cutler, Corey S; Urbano-Ispizua, Alvaro; Pavletic, Steven Z; Haagenson, Michael D; Zhang, Mei-Jie; Antin, Joseph H; Bolwell, Brian J; Bredeson, Christopher; Cahn, Jean-Yves; Cairo, Mitchell; Gale, Robert Peter; Gupta, Vikas; Lee, Stephanie J; Litzow, Mark; Weisdorf, Daniel J; Horowitz, Mary M; Hahn, Theresa

    2012-01-05

    Risk factors for acute GVHD (AGVHD), overall survival, and transplant-related mortality were evaluated in adults receiving allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplants (1999-2005) from HLA-identical sibling donors (SDs; n = 3191) or unrelated donors (URDs; n = 2370) and reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research, Minneapolis, MN. To understand the impact of transplant regimen on AGVHD risk, 6 treatment categories were evaluated: (1) myeloablative conditioning (MA) with total body irradiation (TBI) + PBSCs, (2) MA + TBI + BM, (3) MA + nonTBI + PBSCs, (4) MA + nonTBI + BM, (5) reduced intensity conditioning (RIC) + PBSCs, and (6) RIC + BM. The cumulative incidences of grades B-D AGVHD were 39% (95% confidence interval [CI], 37%-41%) in the SD cohort and 59% (95% CI, 57%-61%) in the URD cohort. Patients receiving SD transplants with MA + nonTBI + BM and RIC + PBSCs had significantly lower risks of grades B-D AGVHD than patients in other treatment categories. Those receiving URD transplants with MA + TBI + BM, MA + nonTBI + BM, RIC + BM, or RIC + PBSCs had lower risks of grades B-D AGVHD than those in other treatment categories. The 5-year probabilities of survival were 46% (95% CI, 44%-49%) with SD transplants and 33% (95% CI, 31%-35%) with URD transplants. Conditioning intensity, TBI and graft source have a combined effect on risk of AGVHD that must be considered in deciding on a treatment strategy for individual patients.

  18. Modeling the survival kinetics of Salmonella in tree nuts for use in risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Santillana Farakos, Sofia M; Pouillot, Régis; Anderson, Nathan; Johnson, Rhoma; Son, Insook; Van Doren, Jane

    2016-06-16

    Salmonella has been shown to survive in tree nuts over long periods of time. This survival capacity and its variability are key elements for risk assessment of Salmonella in tree nuts. The aim of this study was to develop a mathematical model to predict survival of Salmonella in tree nuts at ambient storage temperatures that considers variability and uncertainty separately and can easily be incorporated into a risk assessment model. Data on Salmonella survival on raw almonds, pecans, pistachios and walnuts were collected from the peer reviewed literature. The Weibull model was chosen as the baseline model and various fixed effect and mixed effect models were fit to the data. The best model identified through statistical analysis testing was then used to develop a hierarchical Bayesian model. Salmonella in tree nuts showed slow declines at temperatures ranging from 21°C to 24°C. A high degree of variability in survival was observed across tree nut studies reported in the literature. Statistical analysis results indicated that the best applicable model was a mixed effect model that included a fixed and random variation of δ per tree nut (which is the time it takes for the first log10 reduction) and a fixed variation of ρ per tree nut (parameter which defines the shape of the curve). Higher estimated survival rates (δ) were obtained for Salmonella on pistachios, followed in decreasing order by pecans, almonds and walnuts. The posterior distributions obtained from Bayesian inference were used to estimate the variability in the log10 decrease levels in survival for each tree nut, and the uncertainty of these estimates. These modeled uncertainty and variability distributions of the estimates can be used to obtain a complete exposure assessment of Salmonella in tree nuts when including time-temperature parameters for storage and consumption data. The statistical approach presented in this study may be applied to any studies that aim to develop predictive models to be

  19. Examining the role of methamphetamine in permanency: A competing risks analysis of reunification, guardianship, and adoption.

    PubMed

    Akin, Becci A; Brook, Jody; Lloyd, Margaret H

    2015-03-01

    Parental methamphetamine use has drawn significant attention in recent years. Despite prior research that shows that parental substance abuse is a risk factor for lengthy foster care stay, little is known about the effect of specific types of substance use on permanency. This study sought to compare the impact of parental methamphetamine use to alcohol use, other drug use, and polysubstance use on the timing of 3 types of permanency: reunification, guardianship, and adoption. Using an entry cohort of 16,620 children who had entered foster care during a 5-year period, competing risks event history models were conducted for each permanency type. Findings showed that, after controlling for several case characteristics, parent illicit drug use significantly impacted the timing of the 3 types of permanency, but alcohol use did not. Methamphetamine, other drug, and polysubstance with methamphetamine use were associated with lower rates of reunification and higher rates of adoption. Guardianship was also predicted by other drug and polysubstance use without methamphetamine; however, methamphetamine use was not associated with guardianship. Notably, the methamphetamine groups comprised the youngest children and had the shortest median time to adoption. Results suggest that type of parental substance use is predictive of permanency exits and that parental illicit drug use may require tailored strategies for improving permanency outcomes. Further implications of the findings are discussed. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  20. Cumulative Risk, the Mother-Child Relationship, and Social-Emotional Competence in Latino Head Start Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martí, Maria; Bonillo, Albert; Jané, Maria Claustre; Fisher, Elisa M.; Duch, Helena

    2016-01-01

    Research Findings: Supportive mother-child interactions promote the development of social-emotional competence. Poverty and other associated psychosocial risk factors have a negative impact on mother-child interaction. In spite of Latino children being disproportionately represented among children living in poverty, research on mother-child…

  1. Cumulative Risk, the Mother-Child Relationship, and Social-Emotional Competence in Latino Head Start Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martí, Maria; Bonillo, Albert; Jané, Maria Claustre; Fisher, Elisa M.; Duch, Helena

    2016-01-01

    Research Findings: Supportive mother-child interactions promote the development of social-emotional competence. Poverty and other associated psychosocial risk factors have a negative impact on mother-child interaction. In spite of Latino children being disproportionately represented among children living in poverty, research on mother-child…

  2. Sensation Seeking: A Potential Factor Influencing Perceived Risk and Perceived Competence in an Introductory Scuba Diving Course

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morgan, Cass

    2009-01-01

    This study examined the relationship between the sensation-seeking personality trait to changes in perceived risk and perceived competence during an adventure experience. Participants (n = 57) were enrolled in a 14-week introductory scuba diving course offered at a university in eastern North Carolina in 2006. The data was analyzed using a…

  3. A Proportional Hazards Regression Model for the Sub-distribution with Covariates Adjusted Censoring Weight for Competing Risks Data

    PubMed Central

    HE, PENG; ERIKSSON, FRANK; SCHEIKE, THOMAS H.; ZHANG, MEI-JIE

    2015-01-01

    With competing risks data, one often needs to assess the treatment and covariate effects on the cumulative incidence function. Fine and Gray proposed a proportional hazards regression model for the subdistribution of a competing risk with the assumption that the censoring distribution and the covariates are independent. Covariate-dependent censoring sometimes occurs in medical studies. In this paper, we study the proportional hazards regression model for the subdistribution of a competing risk with proper adjustments for covariate-dependent censoring. We consider a covariate-adjusted weight function by fitting the Cox model for the censoring distribution and using the predictive probability for each individual. Our simulation study shows that the covariate-adjusted weight estimator is basically unbiased when the censoring time depends on the covariates, and the covariate-adjusted weight approach works well for the variance estimator as well. We illustrate our methods with bone marrow transplant data from the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR). Here cancer relapse and death in complete remission are two competing risks. PMID:27034534

  4. Environmental risk assessment of replication competent viral vectors applied in clinical trials: potential effects of inserted sequences.

    PubMed

    van den Akker, Eric; van der Vlugt, Cecile J B; Bleijs, Diederik A; Bergmans, Hans E

    2013-12-01

    Risk assessments of clinical applications involving genetically modified viral vectors are carried out according to general principles that are implemented in many national and regional legislations, e.g., in Directive 2001/18/EC of the European Union. Recent developments in vector design have a large impact on the concepts that underpin the risk assessments of viral vectors that are used in clinical trials. The use of (conditionally) replication competent viral vectors (RCVVs) may increase the likelihood of the exposure of the environment around the patient, compared to replication defective viral vectors. Based on this assumption we have developed a methodology for the environmental risk assessment of replication competent viral vectors, which is presented in this review. Furthermore, the increased likelihood of exposure leads to a reevaluation of what would constitute a hazardous gene product in viral vector therapies, and a keen interest in new developments in the inserts used. One of the trends is the use of inserts produced by synthetic biology. In this review the implications of these developments for the environmental risk assessment of RCVVs are highlighted, with examples from current clinical trials. The conclusion is drawn that RCVVs, notwithstanding their replication competency, can be applied in an environmentally safe way, in particular if adequate built-in safeties are incorporated, like conditional replication competency, as mitigating factors to reduce adverse environmental effects that could occur.

  5. A Simple Risk Model to Predict Survival in Patients With Carcinoma of Unknown Primary Origin.

    PubMed

    Huang, Chen-Yang; Lu, Chang-Hsien; Yang, Chan-Keng; Hsu, Hung-Chih; Kuo, Yung-Chia; Huang, Wen-Kuan; Chen, Jen-Shi; Lin, Yung-Chang; Chia-Yen, Hung; Shen, Wen-Chi; Chang, Pei-Hung; Yeh, Kun-Yun; Hung, Yu-Shin; Chou, Wen-Chi

    2015-11-01

    Carcinoma of unknown primary origin (CUP) is characterized by diverse histological subtypes and clinical presentations, ranging from clinically indolent to frankly aggressive behaviors. This study aimed to identify prognostic factors of CUP and to develop a simple risk model to predict survival in a cohort of Asian patients.We retrospectively reviewed 190 patients diagnosed with CUP between 2007 and 2012 at a single medical center in Taiwan. The clinicopathological parameters and outcomes of our cohort were analyzed. A risk model was developed using multivariate logistic regression and a prognostic score was generated.The prognostic score was calculated based on 3 independent prognostic variables: the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) scale (0 points if the score was 1, 2 points if it was 2-4), visceral organ involvement (0 points if no involvement, 1 point if involved), and the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (0 points if ≤3, 1 point if >3). Patients were stratified into good (score 0), intermediate (score 1-2), and poor (score 3-4) prognostic groups based on the risk model. The median survival (95% confidence interval) was 1086 days (500-1617, n = 42), 305 days (237-372, n = 75), and 64 days (44-84, n = 73) for the good, intermediate, and poor prognostic groups, respectively. The c-statistics using the risk model and ECOG scale for the outcome of 1-year mortality were 0.80 and 0.70 (P = 0.038), respectively.In this study, we developed a simple risk model that accurately predicted survival in patients with CUP. This scoring system may be used to help patients and clinicians determine appropriate treatments.

  6. Prediction of long-term cumulative incidences based on short-term parametric model for competing risks: application in early breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Cabarrou, B; Belin, L; Somda, S M; Falcou, M C; Pierga, J Y; Kirova, Y; Delord, J P; Asselain, B; Filleron, T

    2016-04-01

    Use of parametric statistical models can be a solution to reduce the follow-up period time required to estimate long-term survival. Mould and Boag were the first to use the lognormal model. Competing risks methodology seems more suitable when a particular event type is of interest than classical survival analysis. The objective was to evaluate the ability of the Jeong and Fine model to predict long-term cumulative incidence. Survival data recorded by Institut Curie (Paris) from 4761 breast cancer patients treated and followed between 1981 and 2013 were used. Long-term cumulative incidence rates predicted by the model using short-term follow-up data were compared to non-parametric estimation using complete follow-up data. 20- or 25-year cumulative incidence rates for loco-regional recurrence and distant metastasis predicted by the model using a maximum of 10 years of follow-up data had a maximum difference of around 6 % compared to non-parametric estimation. Prediction rates were underestimated for the third and composite event (contralateral or second cancer or death). Predictive ability of Jeong and Fine model on breast cancer data was generally good considering the short follow-up period time used for the estimation especially when a proportion of patient did not experience loco-regional recurrence or distant metastasis.

  7. Resource effects of training general practitioners in risk communication skills and shared decision making competences.

    PubMed

    Cohen, David; Longo, M F; Hood, Kerenza; Edwards, Adrian; Elwyn, Glyn

    2004-08-01

    Involving patients more in decisions about their own care requires doctors to be trained in effective ways of communicating information and in developing competences to negotiate levels of patient involvement which are most appropriate for each case. The aim of this study was to determine the cost of such training and identify which service resource variables are subsequently affected. An explanatory cluster randomized crossover trial was carried out which involved training general practitioners (GPs) in the use of risk communication (RC) tools, shared decision making (SDM) competences or both. Continuing care by GPs of patients with one of four chronic conditions (menopausal symptoms, menorrhagia, atrial fibrillation, prostatism) was reviewed before and after training. Cost of training was assessed by prospective monitoring of resources used. Data on prescribing, referrals and investigations were collected via questionnaires to participating practitioners. Data on follow-up GP consultations were extracted from medical records. Three two-level logistic models were performed to investigate the probability of training having an effect on prescribing, referrals and investigations ordered at the review consultation. Training cost pound 1218 per practitioner which increased the cost of a consultation by pound 2.89. Training in SDM or combined with RC significantly affected the probability of a prescription being issued to women with menopausal symptoms and menorrhagia (although RC on its own had no effect) but did not significantly affect prescribing for patients with prostatism or atrial fibrillation. It did not significantly affect the probability of investigations, referrals or follow-up GP visits for any of the conditions. Unless training has a major influence on consultation length, it is unlikely to have any major impacts on cost.

  8. MRI breast screening in high-risk women: cancer detection and survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Evans, D Gareth; Gareth, Evans D; Kesavan, Nisha; Nisha, Kesavan; Lim, Yit; Yit, Lim; Gadde, Soujanye; Soujanye, Gadde; Hurley, Emma; Emma, Hurley; Massat, Nathalie J; Maxwell, Anthony J; Ingham, Sarah; Sarah, Ingham; Eeles, Rosalind; Rosalind, Eeles; Leach, Martin O; Howell, Anthony; Anthony, Howell; Duffy, Stephen W; Stephen, Duffy

    2014-06-01

    Women with a genetic predisposition to breast cancer tend to develop the disease at a younger age with denser breasts making mammography screening less effective. The introduction of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for familial breast cancer screening programs in recent years was intended to improve outcomes in these women. We aimed to assess whether introduction of MRI surveillance improves 5- and 10-year survival of high-risk women and determine the accuracy of MRI breast cancer detection compared with mammography-only or no enhanced surveillance and compare size and pathology of cancers detected in women screened with MRI + mammography and mammography only. We used data from two prospective studies where asymptomatic women with a very high breast cancer risk were screened by either mammography alone or with MRI also compared with BRCA1/2 carriers with no intensive surveillance. 63 cancers were detected in women receiving MRI + mammography and 76 in women receiving mammography only. Sensitivity of MRI + mammography was 93 % with 63 % specificity. Fewer cancers detected on MRI were lymph node positive compared to mammography/no additional screening. There were no differences in 10-year survival between the MRI + mammography and mammography-only groups, but survival was significantly higher in the MRI-screened group (95.3 %) compared to no intensive screening (73.7 %; p = 0.002). There were no deaths among the 21 BRCA2 carriers receiving MRI. There appears to be benefit from screening with MRI, particularly in BRCA2 carriers. Extended follow-up of larger numbers of high-risk women is required to assess long-term survival.

  9. Interleukin genes and associations with colon and rectal cancer risk and overall survival.

    PubMed

    Bondurant, Kristina L; Lundgreen, Abbie; Herrick, Jennifer S; Kadlubar, Susan; Wolff, Roger K; Slattery, Martha L

    2013-02-15

    Interleukins are a group of cytokines that contribute to growth and differentiation, cell migration, and inflammatory and anti-inflammatory responses by the immune system. In our study, we examined genetic variation in genes from various anti-inflammatory and proinflammatory interleukins to determine association with colon and rectal cancer risk and overall survival. Data from two population-based incident studies of colon cancer (1,555 cases and 1,956 controls) and rectal cancer (754 cases and 954 controls) were used. After controlling for multiple comparisons, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from four genes, IL3, IL6R, IL8, IL15, were associated with increased colon cancer risk, and CXCR1 and CXCR2 were significantly associated with increased rectal cancer risk. Only SNPs from genes within the IL-8 pathway (IL8, CXCR1 and CXCR2) showed a significant association with both colon and rectal cancer risk. Several SNPs interacted significantly with IL8 and IFNG SNPs and with aspirin/non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID), cigarette smoking, estrogen use and BMI. For both colon and rectal cancer, increasing numbers of risk alleles were associated with increased hazard of death from cancer; the estimated hazard of death for colon cancer for the highest category of risk alleles was 1.74 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18-2.56) and 1.96 (95% CI 1.28-2.99) for rectal cancer. These data suggest that interleukin genes play a role in risk and overall survival for colon and rectal cancer. Copyright © 2012 UICC.

  10. The Impact of Urethral Risk Factors on Transcorporeal Artificial Urinary Sphincter Erosion Rates and Device Survival.

    PubMed

    Mock, Stephen; Dmochowski, Roger R; Brown, Elizabeth T; Reynolds, W Stuart; Kaufman, Melissa R; Milam, Douglas F

    2015-12-01

    We report the impact of urethral risk factors on erosion rates and device survival outcomes after transcorporeal artificial urinary sphincter placement. We performed a retrospective analysis of all transcorporeal artificial urinary sphincters placed at a single institution between January 2000 and May 2014. We assessed patient demographic, comorbid diseases and surgical characteristics for risk factors considered poor for device survival. Risk factors were compared to postoperative complications requiring explantation, including cuff erosion, infection and device revision. A total of 37 transcorporeal artificial urinary sphincters were placed in 35 men. Placement was performed as a primary procedure in 21 of 37 cases (56.8%) and as salvage in the remainder. In this transcorporeal population there were 7 explantations (18.9%) due to erosion in 4 cases, cuff downsizing in 2 and infection in 1. Median followup from implantation to last followup was 8.5 months (range 0.9 to 63). Median time from artificial urinary sphincter placement to explantation was 17.3 months (range 0.9 to 63) and time specifically to transcorporeal erosion was 7.4 months (range 0.9 to 26). On univariate analysis no parameters were associated with sphincter cuff erosion but a history of an inflatable penile prosthesis was associated with a higher device explantation rate (60% vs 12.5%, p=0.04). No associations were revealed on multivariate logistic analysis. All 4 cuff erosion cases demonstrated greater than 2 urethral risk factors, including prior radiation therapy in all. The probability of cuff erosion in patients with 2 or more urethral risk factors was 1.65 times the probability of erosion in those with 0 or 1 urethral risk factor (95% CI 1.3, 2.2). The proportion of patients free of erosion at 35 months was 100% in those with 0 or 1 urethral risk factor and 64% in those with 2 or more risk factors (log rank test p=0.00). Similarly the proportion of patients free of explantation at 35 months

  11. Cumulative survival rate and associated risk factors of Implantium implants: A 10-year retrospective clinical study.

    PubMed

    Park, Jin-Hong; Kim, Young-Soo; Ryu, Jae-Jun; Shin, Sang-Wan; Lee, Jeong-Yol

    2017-06-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the cumulative survival rate (CSR) and associated risk factors of Implantium implants by retrospective clinical study. Patients who received Implantium implants (Dentium Co., Seoul, Korea) at Korea University Guro Hospital from 2004 to 2011 were included. The period between the first surgery and the last hospital visit until December 2015 was set as the observation period for this study. Clinical and radiographic data were collected from patient records, including all complications observed during the follow-up period. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to examine CSR. Multiple Cox proportional hazard model was employed to assess the associations between potential risk factors and CSR. A total of 370 implants were placed in 121 patients (mean age, 56.1 years; range, 19 to 75 years). Of the 370 implants, 13 failed, including 7 implants that were lost before loading. The 10-year cumulative survival rate of implants was 94.8%. The multiple Cox proportional hazard model revealed that significant risk factor of implant failure were smoking and maxillary implant (P<.05). The 10-year CSR of Implantium implants was 94.8%. Risk factors of implant failure were smoking and maxillary implant.

  12. Subsequent fracture in nursing home residents with a hip fracture: a competing risks approach.

    PubMed

    Berry, Sarah D; Samelson, Elizabeth J; Ngo, Long; Bordes, Malynda; Broe, Kerry E; Kiel, Douglas P

    2008-10-01

    To determine the incidence and predictors of subsequent fracture in nursing home residents with a hip fracture, accounting for the competing risk of death. Dynamic cohort study. Hebrew Rehabilitation Center, a 725-bed, long-term care facility in Boston, Massachusetts. Long-term care residents with a surgically repaired hip fracture (1999-2006) followed through June 30, 2007, for the occurrence of subsequent fracture at any skeletal site. Information on age, sex, anatomic location, type of repair, body mass index (BMI), comorbidities, functional status, cognitive status, and medication use were evaluated as potential risk factors for subsequent fracture. The study included 184 residents with a baseline hip fracture. Thirty-nine residents (7 men, 32 women) experienced a subsequent fracture over a median follow-up of 1.1 years. After the baseline hip fracture, 6% of residents experienced a subsequent fracture within 6 months, 12% within 1 year, and 21% within 5 years. In addition, 23% of residents died within 6 months, 31% within 1 year, and 60% within 5 years. High functional status was associated with a five times greater risk of subsequent fracture (high vs low functional status, hazard ratio=5.10, P<.005). Age, sex, BMI, comorbidities, cognitive status, and medication use were not associated with subsequent fracture. Hip fractures are a sentinel event in nursing home residents, with a high incidence of subsequent fracture and death occurring within 1 year. Identification of prefracture characteristics and postfracture complications associated with mortality should help guide secondary prevention efforts in nursing home residents.

  13. p53 alterations in oesophageal cancer: association with clinicopathological features, risk factors, and survival.

    PubMed Central

    Casson, A G; Tammemagi, M; Eskandarian, S; Redston, M; McLaughlin, J; Ozcelik, H

    1998-01-01

    AIM: To characterise the spectrum of p53 alterations (gene mutations and protein accumulation) in a consecutive series of surgically resected oesophageal cancers, and to evaluate associations with clinicopathological findings (age, sex, tumour histology, grade, and stage), potential risk factors (alcohol, tobacco, hot beverage consumption, history of gastrooesophageal reflux disease and antacid use), and survival. METHODS: The case series comprised 61 sequentially accrued patients with primary oesophageal carcinomas. Genomic DNA was extracted from banked (frozen) tumours and matched normal mucosal tissue; p53 mutations (exons 4-10) were studied by means of polymerase chain reaction (PCR)/single strand conformation polymorphism (SSCP) analysis and DNA sequencing. Immunohistochemistry (DO7, CM1) was used to assess cell nuclear p53 protein accumulation. Risk factor data, overall and disease free survival were measured prospectively, and analysis was carried out at the univariate level using Kaplan-Meier survival curves with log rank tests, and in multivariate analysis using Cox's proportional hazards models (parsimonious and fully adjusted). RESULTS: p53 mutations were found in 59% (36 of 61) and p53 protein accumulation was detected in 39% (24 of 61) of oesophageal cancers. Eighty eight per cent (23 of 26) of poorly differentiated tumours had p53 alterations compared with 57% (20 of 35) of moderate/well differentiated tumours (odds ratio (OR) = 5.575; p = 0.013). p53 mutations increased significantly with increasing consumption of hot beverages (measured by the average temperature of beverage, number consumed daily, and an index made by multiplying the two variables together) using both univariate (OR = 18.6; p = 0.0025) and multivariate (OR = 24.5; p = 0.0025) analysis. p53 alterations were associated with reduced disease free and overall survival (p = 0.051, log rank), with a univariate (unadjusted) hazard ratio (HR) of 2.241 (95% confidence limits (CL) = 0.973, 5

  14. Evaluation of risk factors associated with clinical improvement and survival of horses with equine protozoal myeloencephalitis.

    PubMed

    Saville, W J; Morley, P S; Reed, S M; Granstrom, D E; Kohn, C W; Hinchcliff, K W; Wittum, T E

    2000-10-15

    To investigate risk factors for use in predicting clinical improvement and survival of horses with equine protozoal myeloencephalitis (EPM). Longitudinal epidemiologic study. 251 horses with EPM. Between 1992 and 1995, 251 horses with EPM were admitted to our facility. A diagnosis of EPM was made on the basis of neurologic abnormalities and detection of antibody to Sarcocystis neurona or S neurona DNA in CSF. Data were obtained from hospital records and through telephone follow-up interviews. Factors associated with clinical improvement and survival were analyzed, using multivariable logistic regression. The likelihood of clinical improvement after diagnosis of EPM was lower in horses used for breeding and pleasure activities. Treatment for EPM increased the probability that a horse would have clinical improvement. The likelihood of survival among horses with EPM was lower among horses with more severe clinical signs and higher among horses that improved after EPM was diagnosed. Treatment of horses with EPM is indicated in most situations; however, severity of clinical signs should be taken into consideration when making treatment decisions. Response to treatment is an important indicator of survival.

  15. Vehicle submersion: a review of the problem, associated risks, and survival information.

    PubMed

    McDonald, Gerren K; Giesbrecht, Gordon G

    2013-05-01

    Of all drownings, 3 to 11% occur in submersed vehicles, yet scientific study of this topic seems limited. A search was made of digital medical, drowning, transportation, and rescue databases regarding vehicle submersion drownings. The major risk factors include driving on ice or roadways near water, flooding of roadways or bridges, slippery roads, curved roads, and darkness. A new definition of a Flotation Phase (from water impact until water rises to the bottom of side windows) defines a period when escape is easiest. Since survival probability is highest during this period (generally the first minute)--and then decreases rapidly--cell phones should not be used to call for help because this will only squander the optimal window for survival. It is virtually impossible to open a door until the vehicle is almost completely full of water. Since there is little or no trapped air, this period provides a very low chance of survival. Before exit, children should be released from their restraints. Breaking windows is difficult without a center punch or rescue hammer, which should be visibly mounted within reach of the driver. Prevention includes installing adequate guardrails, barriers, warning signs, and road markings, or placing roadways at a greater distance from water. Areas at high risk for flooding should have signs and public warning systems for flash flooding should be improved. Public education should also focus on the dangers of driving on flooded roads or bridges, and on ice roads.

  16. Risk factors and survival analysis of the esophageal cancer in the population of Jammu, India.

    PubMed

    Sehgal, S; Kaul, S; Gupta, B B; Dhar, M K

    2012-01-01

    To identify the risk factors of esophageal cancer and study their effect on the survival rates patients of Jammu region, India. Detailed information was collected on socio-demographic, dietary and clinico-pathological parameters for 200 case control pairs. Discrete (categorical) data of 2 independent groups (control and cases) were summarized in frequency (%) and compared by using Chi-square (χ2 ) test. The mean age of two independent groups was compared by independent Student's t-test. To find out potential risk factor (s), the variable (s) found significant in univariate analysis were further subjected to multivariate logistic regression analysis. The association of potential risk factors with patients survival (3-year overall survival) was done by Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis using Log-rank test. A 2-tailed (a = 2) P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Out of the 63 response parameters, seven were found highly significant on multivariate analysis. The mean (± SD) age was 56.74 ± 10.76 years, the proportions of males were higher than females, mostly illiterate and lower income group. Among dietary characteristics, snuff was highest (OR = 3.86, 95% CI = 2.46-6.08) followed by salt tea (OR = 2.53, 95% CI = 1.49-4.29), smoking (OR = 1.97, 95% CI = 1.18-3.30), sundried food (OR = 1.77, 95% CI = 1.10-2.85) and red chilly (OR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.07-2.89). Probability of survival lowered significantly (P < 0.05 or P < 0.01 or P < 0.001) in those consuming tobacco in the form of snuff (Log-rank c 2 = 24.62, P = 0.000) and smoking (Log-rank c 2 = 5.20, P = 0.023) as compared to those who did not take these. The analysis finally established snuff (smokeless tobacco) as the most powerful risk factor of esophageal cancer in Jammu region, followed by the salt tea, smoking and the sundried food.

  17. Statin use and breast cancer survival and risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Li, Yuan-Yuan; Zhu, Jingjing; Qian, Ke-Qing; Li, Wen-Jing; Wu, Lang

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the associations between statin use and breast cancer survival and risk by performing a systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched PubMed, Embase and Web of Science up to August 2015 for identifying relevant prospective or case-control studies, or randomized clinical trials. Five prospective studies involving 60,911 patients reported the association between statin use and breast cancer mortality. Eleven prospective studies, 12 case-control studies and 9 randomized clinical trials involving 83,919 patients reported the association between statin use and breast cancer risk. After pooling estimates from all available studies, there was a significantly negative association between pre-diagnosis statin use and breast cancer mortality (for overall survival (OS): hazard ratio (HR) = 0.68, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54–0.84; for disease specific survival (DSS): HR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.53–0.99). There was also a significant inverse association between post-diagnosis statin use and breast cancer DSS (HR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.43–0.98), although the association with breast cancer OS did not reach statistical significance (HR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.48–1.07). Additionally, there was a non-linear relationship for the duration of post-diagnosis statin use with breast cancer specific mortality. On the other hand, with regards to the relationship between statin use and breast cancer risk, no significant association was detected. Our analyses suggest that although statin use may not influence breast cancer risk, the use of statin may be associated with decrease mortality of breast cancer patients. Further large-scale studies are warranted to validate our findings. PMID:26472026

  18. Obesity as an independent risk factor for decreased survival in node-positive high-risk breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Scholz, Christoph; Andergassen, U; Hepp, P; Schindlbeck, C; Friedl, Thomas W P; Harbeck, N; Kiechle, M; Sommer, H; Hauner, H; Friese, K; Rack, B; Janni, W

    2015-06-01

    Obese breast cancer patients have a higher risk of lymph node metastasis and a poorer prognosis compared to patients with normal weight. For obese women with node-positive breast cancer, an association between body weight and prognosis remains unclear. In this retrospective study, we analyzed patient data from the Phase-III ADEBAR trial, in which high-risk breast cancer patients (pT1-4, pN2-3, pM0) were randomized into a docetaxel-based versus epirubicin-based chemotherapy regimen. Patients were grouped according to their BMI value as underweight/normal weight (BMI < 25 kg/m(2); n = 543), overweight (BMI 25-29.9 kg/m(2); n = 482) or obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2); n = 285). Overweight and obese patients were older, had larger tumors and were more likely to be postmenopausal at the time of diagnosis compared to underweight/normal-weight patients (all p < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analyses adjusting for age and histopathological tumor features showed that obese patients had a significantly shorter disease-free survival (DFS; HR 1.43; 95 % CI 1.11-1.86; p = 0.006) and overall survival (OS; HR 1.56; 95 % CI 1.14-2.14; p = 0.006) than non-obese patients. Subgroup analyses revealed that the differences in DFS and OS were significant for postmenopausal but not for premenopausal patients, and that the survival benefit of non-obese patients was more pronounced in women with hormone-receptor-positive disease. Obesity constitutes an independent, adverse prognostic factor in high-risk node-positive breast cancer patients, in particular for postmenopausal women and women with hormone-receptor-positive disease.

  19. Using cross-validation to evaluate predictive accuracy of survival risk classifiers based on high-dimensional data.

    PubMed

    Simon, Richard M; Subramanian, Jyothi; Li, Ming-Chung; Menezes, Supriya

    2011-05-01

    Developments in whole genome biotechnology have stimulated statistical focus on prediction methods. We review here methodology for classifying patients into survival risk groups and for using cross-validation to evaluate such classifications. Measures of discrimination for survival risk models include separation of survival curves, time-dependent ROC curves and Harrell's concordance index. For high-dimensional data applications, however, computing these measures as re-substitution statistics on the same data used for model development results in highly biased estimates. Most developments in methodology for survival risk modeling with high-dimensional data have utilized separate test data sets for model evaluation. Cross-validation has sometimes been used for optimization of tuning parameters. In many applications, however, the data available are too limited for effective division into training and test sets and consequently authors have often either reported re-substitution statistics or analyzed their data using binary classification methods in order to utilize familiar cross-validation. In this article we have tried to indicate how to utilize cross-validation for the evaluation of survival risk models; specifically how to compute cross-validated estimates of survival distributions for predicted risk groups and how to compute cross-validated time-dependent ROC curves. We have also discussed evaluation of the statistical significance of a survival risk model and evaluation of whether high-dimensional genomic data adds predictive accuracy to a model based on standard covariates alone.

  20. Gallbladder cancer: incidence and survival in a high-risk area of Chile.

    PubMed

    Bertran, Enriqueta; Heise, Katy; Andia, Marcelo E; Ferreccio, Catterina

    2010-11-15

    We assessed population incidence rates 1998-2002 and 5-year survival rates of 317 primary gallbladder cancer (GBC) entered in the population-based cancer registry in Valdivia. We analyzed GBC incidence (Poisson regression) and GBC survival (Cox regression). Cases were identified by histology (69.4%), clinical work-up (21.8%), or death certificate only (8.8%). Main symptoms were abdominal pain (82.8%), jaundice (53.6%) nausea (42.6%), and weight loss (38.2%); at diagnosis, 64% had Stage TNM IV. In the period, 4% of histopathological studies from presumptively benign cholecystectomies presented GBC. GBC cases were mainly females (76.0%), urban residents (70.3%), Hispanic (83.7%) of low schooling <4 years (64.0%). GBC standardized incidence rate per 100,000 (SIR) were all 17.5 (95%CI: 15.5-19.4), women 24.3, and men 8.6 (p < 0.00001); Mapuche 25.0, Hispanic 16.2 (p = 0.09). The highest SIRs were in Mapuche (269.2) and Hispanic women (199.6) with <4 years of schooling. Lowest SIRs were among Hispanic men (19.8) and women (21.9) with >8 years of schooling. Low schooling, female and urban residence were independent risk factors. By December 31, 2007, 6 (1.9%) cases were living, 280 (88.3%) died from GBC, 32 (10.1%) were lost of follow-up. Kaplan Meier Global 5-year survival was: 10.3%, 85% at stage I and 1.9% at stage IV; median survival: 3.4 months. Independent poor prognostic factors were TNM IV, jaundice and nonincidental diagnoses. Our results suggest that women of Mapuche ancestry with low schooling (>50 years) are at the highest risk of presenting and dying from GBC and should be the target for early detection programs.

  1. Estimation of the Standardized Risk Difference and Ratio in a Competing Risks Framework: Application to Injection Drug Use and Progression to AIDS After Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy

    PubMed Central

    Cole, Stephen R.; Lau, Bryan; Eron, Joseph J.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Kitahata, Mari M.; Martin, Jeffrey N.; Mathews, William C.; Mugavero, Michael J.; Cole, Stephen R.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Lau, Bryan; Eron, Joseph J.; Kitahata, Mari M.; Martin, Jeffrey N.; Mathews, William C.; Mugavero, Michael J.

    2015-01-01

    There are few published examples of absolute risk estimated from epidemiologic data subject to censoring and competing risks with adjustment for multiple confounders. We present an example estimating the effect of injection drug use on 6-year risk of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) after initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy between 1998 and 2012 in an 8-site US cohort study with death before AIDS as a competing risk. We estimate the risk standardized to the total study sample by combining inverse probability weights with the cumulative incidence function; estimates of precision are obtained by bootstrap. In 7,182 patients (83% male, 33% African American, median age of 38 years), we observed 6-year standardized AIDS risks of 16.75% among 1,143 injection drug users and 12.08% among 6,039 nonusers, yielding a standardized risk difference of 4.68 (95% confidence interval: 1.27, 8.08) and a standardized risk ratio of 1.39 (95% confidence interval: 1.12, 1.72). Results may be sensitive to the assumptions of exposure-version irrelevance, no measurement bias, and no unmeasured confounding. These limitations suggest that results be replicated with refined measurements of injection drug use. Nevertheless, estimating the standardized risk difference and ratio is straightforward, and injection drug use appears to increase the risk of AIDS. PMID:24966220

  2. Estimation of the standardized risk difference and ratio in a competing risks framework: application to injection drug use and progression to AIDS after initiation of antiretroviral therapy.

    PubMed

    Cole, Stephen R; Lau, Bryan; Eron, Joseph J; Brookhart, M Alan; Kitahata, Mari M; Martin, Jeffrey N; Mathews, William C; Mugavero, Michael J

    2015-02-15

    There are few published examples of absolute risk estimated from epidemiologic data subject to censoring and competing risks with adjustment for multiple confounders. We present an example estimating the effect of injection drug use on 6-year risk of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) after initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy between 1998 and 2012 in an 8-site US cohort study with death before AIDS as a competing risk. We estimate the risk standardized to the total study sample by combining inverse probability weights with the cumulative incidence function; estimates of precision are obtained by bootstrap. In 7,182 patients (83% male, 33% African American, median age of 38 years), we observed 6-year standardized AIDS risks of 16.75% among 1,143 injection drug users and 12.08% among 6,039 nonusers, yielding a standardized risk difference of 4.68 (95% confidence interval: 1.27, 8.08) and a standardized risk ratio of 1.39 (95% confidence interval: 1.12, 1.72). Results may be sensitive to the assumptions of exposure-version irrelevance, no measurement bias, and no unmeasured confounding. These limitations suggest that results be replicated with refined measurements of injection drug use. Nevertheless, estimating the standardized risk difference and ratio is straightforward, and injection drug use appears to increase the risk of AIDS.

  3. Modern treatment in chronic lymphocytic leukemia: impact on survival and efficacy in high-risk subgroups

    PubMed Central

    Cuneo, Antonio; Cavazzini, Francesco; Ciccone, Maria; Daghia, Giulia; Sofritti, Olga; Saccenti, Elena; Negrini, Massimo; Rigolin, Gian Matteo

    2014-01-01

    Treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) has dramatically changed over the last years, with significant improvement in overall survival (OS) and increased efficacy in genetically defined “high-risk” disease. Besides prospective clinical trials usually enrolling young and fit patients, retrospective studies were performed comparing the outcome of patients belonging to different age groups and showing longer survival in patients diagnosed in the most recent periods. In patients younger than 70 years the 10-year relative survival was 43–53% in the 1980s as compared with 59–63% in the 2000s. Likewise, the 10-year relative survival in patients >70 years was 22–42% in the 1980s and 46–55% in the 2000s. Improved outcome derived in part by the introduction of effective regimens in genetically defined “high-risk” disease (i.e., 17p−, 11q−, TP53, NOTCH1, SF3B1 mutations), especially in the younger and/or fit patients. The unfavorable prognostic significance of 11q− was overcome by chemoimmunotherapy. High-dose steroids with anti-CD52 appeared to improve the response rate in 17p-/TP53 mutated cases and allogeneic transplantation achieved prolonged disease control irrespective of high-risk disease. Further improvement is being generated by the new anti-CD20 obinutuzumab in the elderly and by mechanism-based treatment using kinase-targeting agents or anti-BCL2 molecules yielding high-response rate and impressive progression-free survival in the chemorefractory setting as well as in previously untreated patients. PMID:24648042

  4. The Prospective, Observational, Multicenter, Major Trauma Transfusion (PROMMTT) Study: Comparative Effectiveness of a Time-varying Treatment with Competing Risks

    PubMed Central

    Holcomb, John B.; del Junco, Deborah J.; Fox, Erin E.; Wade, Charles E.; Cohen, Mitchell J.; Schreiber, Martin A.; Alarcon, Louis H.; Bai, Yu; Brasel, Karen J.; Bulger, Eileen M.; Cotton, Bryan A.; Matijevic, Nena; Muskat, Peter; Myers, John G.; Phelan, Herb A.; White, Christopher E.; Zhang, Jiajie; Rahbar, Mohammad H.

    2013-01-01

    Context Hemorrhagic shock is the leading potentially preventable cause of death after injury. Transfusion of early and increased ratios of plasma and platelets to red blood cells (RBCs) has been associated with decreased mortality; however conflicting reports and the time-varying nature of transfusions and hemorrhagic death raise concern for the validity of the clinical conclusions drawn from the retrospective data. Objective To relate in-hospital mortality to: 1) early transfusion of plasma and/or platelets and 2) time-varying plasma:RBC and platelet:RBC ratios. Design Prospective cohort study documenting the timing of transfusions during active resuscitation and patient outcomes. Data were analyzed using time-dependent proportional hazards models. Setting Ten US Level 1 trauma centers. Patients Adult trauma patients surviving for 30 minutes after admission, transfused at least 1 unit RBC within 6 hours of admission (n=1245, the original study group) and at least 3 total units (of RBC, plasma or platelets) within 24 hours (n=905, the analysis group). Main outcome measure In-hospital mortality Results Plasma:RBC and platelet:RBC ratios were not constant over the first 24 hours (p<.001 for both). In a multivariable time-dependent Cox model, increased ratios of plasma:RBC (adjusted hazard ratio, HR=0.31, 95% CI=0.16–0.58) and platelets:RBC (adjusted HR=0.55, 95% CI=0.31–0.98) were independently associated with decreased 6-hour mortality, when hemorrhagic death predominated. In the first 6 hours, patients with ratios < 1:2 were 3–4 times more likely to die than patients with ratios ≥1:1. After 24 hours, plasma and platelet ratios were unassociated with mortality, when competing risks from non-hemorrhagic causes prevailed. Conclusions Higher plasma and platelet ratios early in resuscitation were associated with decreased mortality in patients transfused at least three units of blood products during the first 24 hours after admission. Among survivors at 24 hours

  5. Risk factors for reporting poor cultural competency among patients with diabetes in safety net clinics.

    PubMed

    Seligman, Hilary K; Fernandez, Alicia; Stern, Rachel J; Weech-Maldonado, Robert; Quan, Judy; Jacobs, Elizabeth A

    2012-09-01

    The Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems Cultural Competency Item Set assesses patient perceptions of aspects of the cultural competence of their health care. To determine characteristics of patients who identify the care they receive as less culturally competent. Cross-sectional survey consisting of face-to-face interviews. Safety-net population of patients with type 2 diabetes (n=600) receiving ongoing primary care. Participants completed the Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems Cultural Competency and answered questions about their race/ethnicity, sex, age, education, health status, depressive symptoms, insurance coverage, English proficiency, duration of relationship with primary care provider, and comorbidities. In adjusted models, depressive symptoms were significantly associated with poor cultural competency in the Doctor Communication--Positive Behaviors domain [odds ratio (OR) 1.73, 95% confidence interval, 1.11-2.69]. African Americans were less likely than whites to report poor cultural competence in the Doctor Communication--Positive Behaviors domain (OR 0.52, 95% CI, 0.28-0.97). Participants who reported a longer relationship (≥ 3 y) with their primary care provider were less likely to report poor cultural competence in the Doctor Communication--Health Promotion (OR 0.35, 95% CI, 0.21-0.60) and Trust domains (OR 0.4, 95% CI, 0.24-0.67), whereas participants with lower educational attainment were less likely to report poor cultural competence in the Trust domain (OR 0.51, 95% CI, 0.30-0.86). Overall, however, sociodemographic and clinical differences in reports of poor cultural competence were insignificant or inconsistent across the various domains of cultural competence examined. Cultural competence interventions in safety-net settings should be implemented across populations, rather than being narrowly focused on specific sociodemographic or clinical groups.

  6. Investigating the association between allergen-specific immunoglobulin E, cancer risk and survival

    PubMed Central

    Wulaningsih, Wahyu; Holmberg, Lars; Garmo, Hans; Karagiannis, Sophia N.; Ahlstedt, Staffan; Malmstrom, Håkan; Lambe, Mats; Hammar, Niklas; Walldius, Göran; Jungner, Ingmar; Ng, Tony; Van Hemelrijck, Mieke

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Prior findings linking allergy and cancer have been inconsistent, which may be driven by diverse assessment methods. We used serum specific immunoglobulin E (IgE) against common inhalant allergens that was assessed prior to cancer diagnosis in studying this association. We selected 8,727 Swedish men and women who had measurements of serum allergen-specific IgE and total IgE between 1992 and 1996. Multivariable Cox regression using age as a timescale was performed to assess the associations of IgE sensitization, defined by any levels of serum specific IgE ≥35 kU/L, with risk of overall and specific cancers. A test for trend was performed by assigning scores derived from allergen-specific IgE levels at baseline as an ordinal scale. Kaplan–Meier curves and log-rank test were used to assess cancer survival by IgE sensitization status. During a mean follow-up of 16 year, 689 persons were diagnosed with cancer. We found an inverse association between IgE sensitization and cancer risk, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.83 and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of 0.70–0.99. A similar trend was seen with specific IgE scores overall (Ptrend = 0.007) and in women (Ptrend = 0.01). Although IgE sensitization was not associated with risk of common site-specific cancers, serum specific IgE scores were inversely associated with melanoma risk in men and women combined, and with risk of female breast and gynecological cancers combined. No association with survival was observed. The association between circulating IgE levels and incident cancer may point toward a role of T-helper 2 (TH2)-biased response in development of some cancers. PMID:27471625

  7. Prospective assessment of survival, morbidity, and cost associated with lymphadenectomy in low-risk endometrial cancer.

    PubMed

    Dowdy, S C; Borah, B J; Bakkum-Gamez, J N; Weaver, A L; McGree, M E; Haas, L R; Keeney, G L; Mariani, A; Podratz, K C

    2012-10-01

    Since 1999, patients with low risk endometrial cancer (EC) as defined by the Mayo criteria have preferably not undergone lymphadenectomy (LND) at our institution. Here we prospectively assess survival, sites of recurrence, morbidity, and cost in this low risk cohort. Cause-specific survival (CSS) was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. Complications were graded per the Accordion Classification. Thirty-day cost analyses were expressed in 2010 Medicare dollars. Among 1393 consecutive surgically managed cases, 385 (27.6%) met inclusion criteria, accounting for 34.1% of type I EC. There were 80 LND and 305 non-LND cases. Complications in the first 30 days were significantly more common in the LND cohort (37.5% vs. 19.3%; P<0.001). The prevalence of lymph node metastasis was 0.3% (1/385). Over a median follow-up of 5.4 years only 5 of 31 deaths were due to disease. The 5-year CSS in LND and non-LND cases was 97.3% and 99.0%, respectively (P=0.32). None of the 11 total recurrences occurred in the pelvic or para-aortic nodal areas. Median 30-day cost of care was $15,678 for LND cases compared to $11,028 for non-LND cases (P<0.001). The estimated cost per up-staged low-risk case was $327,866 to $439,990, adding an additional $1,418,189 if all 305 non-LND cases had undergone LND. Lymphadenectomy dramatically increases morbidity and cost of care without discernible benefits in low-risk EC as defined by the Mayo criteria. In these low-risk patients, hysterectomy with salpingo-oophorectomy alone is appropriate surgical management and should be standard of care. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  8. Allelic expression imbalance polymorphisms in susceptibility chromosome regions and the risk and survival of breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Lin, Wei; Lin, Hong-Da; Guo, Xing-Yi; Lin, Ying; Su, Feng-Xi; Jia, Wei-Hua; Tang, Lu-Ying; Zheng, Wei; Long, Ji-Rong; Ren, Ze-Fang

    2017-01-01

    Allelic expression imbalance (AEI) has been applied to indicate potential function of genetic variants. Combining earlier results from global differential allele-specific expression analysis and genome wide association studies (GWASs), we select the single nuclear polymorphisms (SNPs) exhibiting AEI phenomenon located in breast cancer susceptibility chromosome regions, and evaluate their associations with breast cancer risk and survival. We examined the genotypes of 10 AEI SNPs in 1551 incident breast cancer cases and 1605 age-frequency matched controls from Guangzhou, China. In total, 1168 cases were followed up. MUC16 rs2591592 (AT/AA vs. TT) was associated with an increased risk of premenopausal breast cancer (OR [95%CI]: 1.30 [1.07, 1.57]); SLAMF1 rs1061217 (CT/TT vs. CC) decreased the risk of breast cancer among overweight women (OR [95%CI]: 0.74 [0.57, 0.96]) but increased the risk among normal-weight women (OR [95%CI]: 1.15 [1.01, 1.39]); ZNF331 rs8109631 (AG/AA vs. GG) and CHRAC1 rs10216653 (GC/GG vs. CC) were associated with progression free survival among breast cancer patients with negative ER/PR status and higher clinical stage (HRs [95%CIs]: 2.39 [1.14, 5.00], 1.85 [1.03, 3.32], and 0.49 [0.30, 0.80], respectively). ZNF331 rs8109631 and CHRAC1 rs10216653 were further found to represent several functional SNPs through bioinformatic analysis. In conclusion, our findings demonstrated suggestive associations of AEI polymorphisms with breast cancer risk (MUC16 rs2591592 and SLAMF1 rs1061217) and prognosis (ZNF331 rs8109631 and CHRAC1 rs10216653). © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Risk factors for dental caries in childhood: a five-year survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Lee, Hyo-Jin; Kim, Jin-Bom; Jin, Bo-Hyoung; Paik, Dai-Il; Bae, Kwang-Hak

    2015-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the risk factors of dental caries at the level of an individual person with survival analysis of the prospective data for 5 years. A total of 249 first-grade students participated in a follow-up study for 5 years. All participants responded to a questionnaire inquiring about socio-demographic variables and oral health behaviors. They also received an oral examination and were tested for Dentocult SM and LB. Over 5 years, the participants received yearly oral follow-up examinations to determine the incidence of dental caries. The incidence of one or more dental caries (DC1) and four or more dental caries (DC4) were defined as one or more and four or more decayed, missing, and filled permanent teeth increments, respectively. Socio-demographic variables, oral health behaviors, and status and caries activity tests were assessed as risk factors for DC1 and DC4. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of risk factors for DC1 and DC4 were calculated using Cox proportional hazard regression models. During the 5-year follow-up period, DC1 and DC4 occurred in 87 and 25 participants, respectively. In multivariate hazard models, five or more decayed, missing, and filled primary molar teeth [HR 1.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19-3.13], and Dentocult LB of two or three (HR 2.21, 95% CI 1.37-3.56) were independent risk factors of DC1. For DC4, only Dentocult LB of two or three was an independent risk factor (HR 2.95, 95% CI 1.11-7.79). Our results suggest that dental caries incidence at an individual level can be associated with the experience of dental caries in primary teeth and Dentocult LB based on the survival models for the 5-year prospective data. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Transferable Competences of Young People with a High Dropout Risk in Vocational Training in Germany

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frey, Andreas; Balzer, Lars; Ruppert, Jean-Jacques

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines whether the subjective beliefs on their competences of 409 trainees in machinery, sales, and logistics constitute a reliable and valid way to measure transferable competences. The analysis of results attributes satisfactory to good reliability values to the assessment procedure. Furthermore, it could be shown that young people…

  11. Transferable Competences of Young People with a High Dropout Risk in Vocational Training in Germany

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frey, Andreas; Balzer, Lars; Ruppert, Jean-Jacques

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines whether the subjective beliefs on their competences of 409 trainees in machinery, sales, and logistics constitute a reliable and valid way to measure transferable competences. The analysis of results attributes satisfactory to good reliability values to the assessment procedure. Furthermore, it could be shown that young people…

  12. Sexual assertiveness in low-income African American women: unwanted sex, survival, and HIV risk.

    PubMed

    Whyte Iv, James

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the relationship of social variables related to sexual relationships in African American women. The study used a quantitative descriptive design to gather data from a convenience sample of 524 African American women aged 18 to 49 who dwelled in the southeastern United States. The study utilized the HIV Risk Behavior Questionnaire to determine the participant's level of HIV risk. Results indicated substantial levels of sex in the women due to violence or fear of violence, relationship loss, lost shelter, and high levels of unwanted sex. There was a positive correlation between level of survival sex and high-risk behavior (R = .651, p < .01). Multiple correlations indicated associations between history of forced sex and sex due to fear of violence (R = .604, p < .01). Further correlations indicated a pattern of association between poverty, age, and sex out of fear of relationship loss or shelter loss. The study indicates a need for a broader definition of HIV-related risk in high-risk populations.

  13. Associations between statin use and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) risk and survival: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Ye, Xibiao; Mneina, Ayat; Johnston, James B; Mahmud, Salaheddin M

    2017-06-01

    Evidence on the effect of statin use on non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) is not clear. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine the associations between statin use and NHL risk and survival. We searched multiple literature sources up to October 2014 and identified 10 studies on the risk of diagnosis with NHL and 9 studies on survival. Random effects model was used to calculate pooled odds ratio (PORs) for risk and pooled hazard ratio (PHR) for survival. Heterogeneity among studies was examined using the Tau-squared and the I-squared (I(2) ) tests. Statin use was associated with reduced risk for total NHL (POR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.69-0.99). Among statin users, there was a lower incidence risk for marginal zone lymphoma (POR = 0.54, 95% CI 0.31-0.94), but this was not observed for other types of NHL. However, statin use did not affect overall survival (PHR = 1.02, 95% CI 0.99-1.06) or event-free survival (PHR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.87-1.12) in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. There is suggestive epidemiological evidence that statins decrease the risk of NHL, but they do not influence survival in NHL patients. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Risk Factors for Reporting Poor Cultural Competency Among Patients with Diabetes in Safety-Net Clinics

    PubMed Central

    Seligman, Hilary K.; Fernandez, Alicia; Stern, Rachel J.; Weech-Maldonado, Robert; Quan, Judy; Jacobs, Elizabeth A.

    2012-01-01

    Background The Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems Cultural Competency (CAHPS-CC) Item Set assesses patient perceptions of aspects of the cultural competence of their health care. Objective To determine characteristics of patients who identify the care they receive as less culturally competent Research Design Cross-sectional survey consisting of face-to-face interviews Subjects Safety-net population of patients with type 2 diabetes (n=600) receiving ongoing primary care Measures Participants completed the CAHPS-CC and answered questions about their race/ethnicity, gender, age, education, health status, depressive symptoms, insurance coverage, English proficiency, duration of relationship with primary care provider, and co-morbidities. Results In adjusted models, depressive symptoms were significantly associated with poor cultural competency in the Doctor Communication – Positive Behaviors domain (OR 1.73, 95%CI 1.11, 2.69). African-Americans were less likely than Whites to report poor cultural competence in the Doctor Communication – Positive Behaviors domain (OR 0.52, 0.28–0.97). Participants who reported a longer relationship (≥3 years) with their primary care provider were less likely to report poor cultural competence in the Doctor Communication – Health Promotion (OR 0.35, 0.21–0.60) and Trust domains (OR 0.4, 0.24–0.67), while participants with lower educational attainment were less likely to report poor cultural competence in the Trust domain (OR 0.51, 0.30–0.86). Overall, however, sociodemographic and clinical differences in reports of poor cultural competence were insignificant or inconsistent across the various domains of cultural competence examined. Conclusions Cultural competence interventions in safety-net settings should be implemented across populations, rather than being narrowly focused on specific sociodemographic or clinical groups. PMID:22895232

  15. Significant survival benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy after concurrent chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced high-risk nasopharyngeal carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Liang, Zhong-Guo; Chen, Xiao-Qian; Lin, Guo-Xiang; Yu, Bin-Bin; Chen, Kai-Hua; Zhong, Qiu-Lu; Nong, Si-Kai; Li, Ling; Qu, Song; Su, Fang; Zhao, Wei; Li, Ye; Zhu, Xiao-Dong

    2017-01-01

    The present study aimed to define high-risk patients who may benefit from additional adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) after concurrent chemotherapy in combination with intensity-modulated radiotherapy among patients with loco-regionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). A cohort of 511 NPC patients who received concomitant chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) with or without AC between January 2007 and December 2012 were retrospectively analysed. One hundred seventy-seven patients received CCRT alone, whereas 334 received CCRT + AC. The survival analysis showed that ages >45 years old, T3-T4 stages, N2-N3 disease and serum albumin levels ≤42 g/L were significant independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). Using these four risk factors, a prognostic model for OS was created as follows: (1) low-risk group: 0–1 risk factors; and (2) high-risk group: 2–4 risk factors. In the CCRT alone and CCRT + AC groups, significant differences in survival were found between the high- and low-risk groups. Patients in the high-risk group exhibited improved OS due to the addition of AC to CCRT, but no survival benefits were found in the low-risk group. In conclusion, high-risk patients may benefit from the addition of AC to CCRT regarding OS. PMID:28150694

  16. Commercial kidney transplantation is an important risk factor in long-term kidney allograft survival.

    PubMed

    Prasad, G V Ramesh; Ananth, Sailesh; Palepu, Sneha; Huang, Michael; Nash, Michelle M; Zaltzman, Jeffrey S

    2016-05-01

    Transplant tourism, a form of transplant commercialization, has resulted in serious short-term adverse outcomes that explain reduced short-term kidney allograft survival. However, the nature of longer-term outcomes in commercial kidney transplant recipients is less clear. To study this further, we identified 69 Canadian commercial transplant recipients of 72 kidney allografts transplanted during 1998 to 2013 who reported to our transplant center for follow-up care. Their outcomes to 8 years post-transplant were compared with 702 domestic living donor and 827 deceased donor transplant recipients during this period using Kaplan-Meier survival plots and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Among many complications, notable specific events included hepatitis B or C seroconversion (7 patients), active hepatitis and/or fulminant hepatic failure (4 patients), pulmonary tuberculosis (2 patients), and a type A dissecting aortic aneurysm. Commercial transplantation was independently associated with significantly reduced death-censored kidney allograft survival (hazard ratio 3.69, 95% confidence interval 1.88-7.25) along with significantly delayed graft function and eGFR 30 ml/min/1.73 m(2) or less at 3 months post-transplant. Thus, commercial transplantation represents an important risk factor for long-term kidney allograft loss. Concerted arguments and efforts using adverse recipient outcomes among the main premises are still required in order to eradicate transplant commercialization.

  17. Extent of thyroidectomy is not a major determinant of survival in low- or high-risk papillary thyroid cancer.

    PubMed

    Haigh, Philip I; Urbach, David R; Rotstein, Lorne E

    2005-01-01

    The optimal extent of thyroidectomy for papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) is controversial. Our objective was to evaluate the effect of total thyroidectomy or partial thyroidectomy on survival in low- and high-risk patients. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database was used to identify PTC patients who underwent thyroidectomy. The independent effects of age, distant metastases, extrathyroidal extension, tumor size, sex, lymph node metastases, radioactive iodine use, and extent of thyroidectomy on survival were analyzed for low- and high-risk PTC. There were 4402 (81%) low-risk and 1030 (19%) high-risk patients; 84.9% underwent total thyroidectomy. The 5- and 10-year survival were 95% and 89% in the low-risk patients and 84% and 73% in the high-risk patients, respectively (P = .001). In the low-risk patients, 10-year survival after total thyroidectomy was 89%, compared with 91% after partial thyroidectomy (adjusted hazard ratio for death, 1.73; 95% confidence interval, 1.28-2.33; P < .001); older age, male sex, larger tumor, lymph node metastases, and lack of radioactive iodine were associated with higher mortality. In the high-risk patients, 10-year survival after total thyroidectomy was 72%, compared with 78% after partial thyroidectomy (adjusted hazard ratio for death, 1.46; 95% confidence interval, .89-2.40; P = .14); older age, distant metastases, larger tumors, and lack of radioactive iodine were associated with higher mortality. Survival of patients with PTC was not significantly influenced by the extent of thyroidectomy. The survival after partial thyroidectomy was similar to total thyroidectomy within both the low- and high-risk prognostic groups.

  18. Maternal exposure to predation risk decreases offspring antipredator behaviour and survival in threespined stickleback

    PubMed Central

    McGhee, Katie E.; Pintor, Lauren M.; Suhr, Elissa L.; Bell, Alison M.

    2012-01-01

    SUMMARY 1. Adaptive maternal programming occurs when mothers alter their offspring's phenotype in response to environmental information such that it improves offspring fitness. When a mother's environment is predictive of the conditions her offspring are likely to encounter, such transgenerational plasticity enables offspring to be better-prepared for this particular environment. However, maternal effects can also have deleterious effects on fitness. 2. Here, we test whether female threespined stickleback fish exposed to predation risk adaptively prepare their offspring to cope with predators. We either exposed gravid females to a model predator or not, and compared their offspring's antipredator behaviour and survival when alone with a live predator. Importantly, we measured offspring behaviour and survival in the face of the same type of predator that threatened their mothers (Northern pike). 3. We did not find evidence for adaptive maternal programming; offspring of predator-exposed mothers were less likely to orient to the predator than offspring from unexposed mothers. In our predation assay, orienting to the predator was an effective antipredator behaviour and those that oriented, survived for longer. 4. In addition, offspring from predator-exposed mothers were caught more quickly by the predator on average than offspring from unexposed mothers. The difference in antipredator behaviour between the maternal predator-exposure treatments offers a potential behavioural mechanism contributing to the difference in survival between maternal treatments. 5. However, the strength and direction of the maternal effect on offspring survival depended on offspring size. Specifically, the larger the offspring from predator-exposed mothers, the more vulnerable they were to predation compared to offspring from unexposed mothers. 6. Our results suggest that the predation risk perceived by mothers can have long-term behavioural and fitness consequences for offspring in response

  19. Leukoplakia, oral cavity cancer risk, and cancer survival in the U.S. elderly

    PubMed Central

    Yanik, Elizabeth L.; Katki, Hormuzd A.; Silverberg, Michael J.; Manos, M. Michele; Engels, Eric A.; Chaturvedi, Anil K.

    2015-01-01

    Screening for oral leukoplakia, an oral cavity cancer (OCC) precursor, could lead to earlier detection of OCC. However, the progression rate from leukoplakia to OCC and the benefits of leukoplakia screening for improving OCC outcomes are currently unclear. We conducted a case-cohort study of U.S. adults aged ≥65 years in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linkage. We identified leukoplakia diagnoses through Medicare claims, and OCC diagnoses through SEER cancer registries. Weighted Cox regression was used to estimate leukoplakia associations with OCC incidence, and the absolute OCC risk following leukoplakia diagnosis was calculated. Among OCC cases, we compared OCC stage and OCC survival between cases with a prior leukoplakia diagnosis vs. those without prior leukoplakia. Among 470,266 individuals in the SEER-Medicare subcohort, 1526 (0.3%) had a leukoplakia diagnosis. Among people with leukoplakia, the cumulative OCC incidence was 0.7% at 3 months and 2.5% at 5 years. OCC risk was most increased <3 months after leukoplakia diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR]=115), likely representing the diagnosis of prevalent cancers. Nonetheless, risk remained substantially increased in subsequent follow-up (HR≥3 months=24, 95%CI=22–27; HR≥12 months=22, 95%CI=20–25). Among OCC cases (N=8,927), those with prior leukoplakia were less likely to be diagnosed at regional/distant stage (odds ratio=0.36, 95%CI=0.30–0.43), and had lower mortality (HR=0.74, 95%CI=0.65–0.84) when compared with OCC cases without a prior leukoplakia. Individuals with leukoplakia have substantially elevated risk of OCC. Lower stage and better survival after OCC diagnosis suggest that leukoplakia identification can lead to earlier OCC detection and reduced mortality. PMID:26159805

  20. Leukoplakia, Oral Cavity Cancer Risk, and Cancer Survival in the U.S. Elderly.

    PubMed

    Yanik, Elizabeth L; Katki, Hormuzd A; Silverberg, Michael J; Manos, M Michele; Engels, Eric A; Chaturvedi, Anil K

    2015-09-01

    Screening for oral leukoplakia, an oral cavity cancer (OCC) precursor, could lead to earlier detection of OCC. However, the progression rate from leukoplakia to OCC and the benefits of leukoplakia screening for improving OCC outcomes are currently unclear. We conducted a case-cohort study of U.S. adults ages ≥65 years in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linkage. We identified leukoplakia diagnoses through Medicare claims, and OCC diagnoses through SEER cancer registries. Weighted Cox regression was used to estimate leukoplakia associations with OCC incidence, and the absolute OCC risk following leukoplakia diagnosis was calculated. Among OCC cases, we compared OCC stage and OCC survival between cases with a prior leukoplakia diagnosis versus those without prior leukoplakia. Among 470,266 individuals in the SEER-Medicare subcohort, 1,526 (0.3%) had a leukoplakia diagnosis. Among people with leukoplakia, the cumulative OCC incidence was 0.7% at 3 months and 2.5% at 5 years. OCC risk was most increased <3 months after leukoplakia diagnosis (HR, 115), likely representing the diagnosis of prevalent cancers. Nonetheless, risk remained substantially increased in subsequent follow-up [HR ≥ 3 months, 24; 95% confidence interval (CI), 22-27; HR ≥ 12 months, 22, 95% CI, 20-25]. Among OCC cases (N = 8,927), those with prior leukoplakia were less likely to be diagnosed at regional/distant stage (OR, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.30-0.43), and had lower mortality (HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.65-0.84) when compared with OCC cases without a prior leukoplakia. Individuals with leukoplakia have substantially elevated risk of OCC. Lower stage and better survival after OCC diagnosis suggest that leukoplakia identification can lead to earlier OCC detection and reduced mortality. ©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.

  1. Snus (Swedish smokeless tobacco) use and risk of stroke: pooled analyses of incidence and survival.

    PubMed

    Hansson, J; Galanti, M R; Hergens, M-P; Fredlund, P; Ahlbom, A; Alfredsson, L; Bellocco, R; Engström, G; Eriksson, M; Hallqvist, J; Hedblad, B; Jansson, J-H; Pedersen, N L; Trolle Lagerros, Y; Ostergren, P-O; Magnusson, C

    2014-07-01

    Snus is a moist smokeless tobacco product with high nicotine content. Its use has a short-term effect on the cardiovascular system, but the relationship between snus use and stroke is unclear. The aim of this study was to assess the associations between use of snus and incidence of and survival after stroke, both overall and according to subtypes. Pooled analyses of eight Swedish prospective cohort studies were conducted, including 130 485 men who never smoked. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of incidence and death after diagnosis using Cox proportional hazard regression models and case fatality and survival using logistic regression and Kaplan-Meier methods, respectively. No associations were observed between the use of snus and the risk of overall stroke (HR 1.04, 95% CI 0.92-1.17) or of any of the stroke subtypes. The odds ratio (OR) of 28-day case fatality was 1.42 (95% CI 0.99-2.04) amongst users of snus who had experienced a stroke, and the HR of death during the follow-up period was 1.32 (95% CI 1.08-1.61). Use of snus was not associated with the risk of stroke. Hence, nicotine is unlikely to contribute importantly to the pathophysiology of stroke. However, case fatality was increased in snus users, compared with nonusers, but further studies are needed to determine any possible causal mechanisms. © 2014 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.

  2. Survival Analysis of Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma in Relation to Stage and Recurrence Risk: A 20-Year Experience in Pakistan.

    PubMed

    Hassan, Aamna; Razi, Mairah; Riaz, Saima; Khalid, Madeeha; Nawaz, M Khalid; Syed, Aamir Ali; Bashir, Humayun

    2016-08-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the overall and progression-free survival of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), comparing the American Thyroid Association (ATA) guideline for risk of recurrence with the TNM staging system with dynamic assessment at 2 years. This study is a retrospective analysis of 689 PTC patients over a 20-year period at a single center. Disease-free survival based on the TNM staging and ATA recurrence risk was calculated using Kaplan-Meier curves. Dynamic response assessment during the first 2 years was compared for both systems. Survival was calculated based on age, baseline resectability, and postthyroidectomy serum tumor marker levels. Six hundred eighty-nine (72.2%) of the total thyroid cancer patients had PTC. Four hundred sixty-nine patients were females, and 220 patients were males. The age range was 6 to 87 years. Five hundred thirty-five patients were resectable, and 56 patients were unresectable. One hundred fifty-one patients were excluded due to insufficient information on recurrence risk. By ATA categorization, 39% had low risk, no disease-related mortality; 44% had intermediate risk, 3 died; and 17% had high risk, 32 died. The 5-year disease-free survival was 54%, 26%, and 5% in low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, respectively. The log-rank test showed a significant difference in the percent survival (P < 0.01). TNM stage wise, in terms of survival, 1.3% in stage I, 2.2% in stage II, 0% in stage III, and 37.5% in stage IV died. The 20-year disease-free survival showed the following: stage I, 43%; stage II, 28%; stage III, 18%; and stage IV, 2%. There is significant difference in survival rate (P < 0.01). Both ATA risk classification and TNM staging were significant predictors of disease-free survival. On bivariate analysis, ATA classification (hazards ratio, 2.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.64-2.67; P = 0.001) was better predictive of overall survival versus TNM classification (hazards ratio, 1.3; 95% confidence

  3. Systemic lupus erythematosus complicated by diffuse alveolar haemorrhage: risk factors, therapy and survival.

    PubMed

    Kazzaz, Nayef M; Coit, Patrick; Lewis, Emily E; McCune, W Joseph; Sawalha, Amr H; Knight, Jason S

    2015-01-01

    While diffuse alveolar haemorrhage (DAH) is recognised as a life-threatening complication of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), little is known about its risk factors and response to treatment. We describe 22 cases of DAH in a US lupus cohort of approximately 1000 patients, and compare them to 66 controls from the same outpatient cohort. We captured variables pertaining to diagnoses of SLE and secondary antiphospholipid syndrome (APS), and analysed them by univariate testing. Those variables with p values <0.05 were then further considered in a multivariate model. Kaplan-Meier curves were constructed for each group, and survival was analysed by Log-rank test. Of the 22 patients with DAH, 59% were diagnosed with DAH within 5 years of lupus diagnosis. By univariate testing, several manifestations of SLE and APS were more common in patients with DAH, including history of thrombocytopenia, cardiac valve disease, low C3, leucopenia, neuropsychiatric features, haemolysis, arterial thrombosis, lupus anticoagulant, secondary APS and low C4. On multivariate analysis, history of thrombocytopenia and low C3 were maintained as independent risk factors. Importantly, only two patients had platelet counts <50 000/µL at the time of the DAH episode, arguing that DAH was not simply a haemorrhagic complication of thrombocytopenia. All patients were treated with increased immunosuppression, including various combinations of corticosteroids, plasmapheresis, cyclophosphamide, rituximab and mycophenolate mofetil. Notably, all patients in the cohort survived their initial episode of DAH. While the patients with DAH did well in the short-term, their long-term survival was significantly worse than controls. Several of the deaths were attributable to thrombotic complications after recovering from DAH. To the best of our knowledge, this is the largest case-control study of lupus DAH to date. History of thrombocytopenia was strongly predictive of DAH (OR ∼40). A number of APS

  4. Systemic lupus erythematosus complicated by diffuse alveolar haemorrhage: risk factors, therapy and survival

    PubMed Central

    Kazzaz, Nayef M; Coit, Patrick; Lewis, Emily E; McCune, W Joseph; Sawalha, Amr H; Knight, Jason S

    2015-01-01

    Objectives While diffuse alveolar haemorrhage (DAH) is recognised as a life-threatening complication of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), little is known about its risk factors and response to treatment. We describe 22 cases of DAH in a US lupus cohort of approximately 1000 patients, and compare them to 66 controls from the same outpatient cohort. Methods We captured variables pertaining to diagnoses of SLE and secondary antiphospholipid syndrome (APS), and analysed them by univariate testing. Those variables with p values <0.05 were then further considered in a multivariate model. Kaplan-Meier curves were constructed for each group, and survival was analysed by Log-rank test. Results Of the 22 patients with DAH, 59% were diagnosed with DAH within 5 years of lupus diagnosis. By univariate testing, several manifestations of SLE and APS were more common in patients with DAH, including history of thrombocytopenia, cardiac valve disease, low C3, leucopenia, neuropsychiatric features, haemolysis, arterial thrombosis, lupus anticoagulant, secondary APS and low C4. On multivariate analysis, history of thrombocytopenia and low C3 were maintained as independent risk factors. Importantly, only two patients had platelet counts <50 000/µL at the time of the DAH episode, arguing that DAH was not simply a haemorrhagic complication of thrombocytopenia. All patients were treated with increased immunosuppression, including various combinations of corticosteroids, plasmapheresis, cyclophosphamide, rituximab and mycophenolate mofetil. Notably, all patients in the cohort survived their initial episode of DAH. While the patients with DAH did well in the short-term, their long-term survival was significantly worse than controls. Several of the deaths were attributable to thrombotic complications after recovering from DAH. Conclusions To the best of our knowledge, this is the largest case–control study of lupus DAH to date. History of thrombocytopenia was strongly predictive of

  5. Bot fly parasitism of the red-backed vole: host survival, infection risk, and population growth.

    PubMed

    Lemaître, Jérôme; Fortin, Daniel; Montiglio, Pierre-Olivier; Darveau, Marcel

    2009-03-01

    Parasites can play an important role in the dynamics of host populations, but empirical evidence remains sparse. We investigated the role of bot fly (Cuterebra spp.) parasitism in red-backed voles (Myodes gapperi) by first assessing the impacts of the parasite on the probability of vole survival under stressful conditions as well as on the reproductive activity of females. We then identified the main factors driving both the individual risk of infection and the abundance of bot flies inside red-backed voles. Finally, we evaluated the impacts of bot fly prevalence on the growth rate of vole populations between mid-July and mid-August. Thirty-six populations of red-backed voles were sampled in the boreal forest of Québec, Canada. The presence and the abundance of parasites in voles, two host life history traits (sex and body condition), three indices of habitat complexity (tree basal area, sapling basal area, coarse woody debris volume), and vole abundance were considered in models evaluating the effects of bot flies on host populations. We found that the probability of survival of red-backed voles in live traps decreased with bot fly infection. Both the individual risk of infection and the abundance of bot flies in red-backed voles were driven mainly by vole abundance rather than by the two host life history traits or the three variables of habitat complexity. Parasitism had population consequences: bot fly prevalence was linked to a decrease in short-term growth rate of vole populations over the summer. We found that bot flies have the potential to reduce survival of red-backed voles, an effect that may apply to large portions of populations.

  6. Brucella spp. of amphibians comprise genomically diverse motile strains competent for replication in macrophages and survival in mammalian hosts

    PubMed Central

    Al Dahouk, Sascha; Köhler, Stephan; Occhialini, Alessandra; Jiménez de Bagüés, María Pilar; Hammerl, Jens Andre; Eisenberg, Tobias; Vergnaud, Gilles; Cloeckaert, Axel; Zygmunt, Michel S.; Whatmore, Adrian M.; Melzer, Falk; Drees, Kevin P.; Foster, Jeffrey T.; Wattam, Alice R.; Scholz, Holger C.

    2017-01-01

    Twenty-one small Gram-negative motile coccobacilli were isolated from 15 systemically diseased African bullfrogs (Pyxicephalus edulis), and were initially identified as Ochrobactrum anthropi by standard microbiological identification systems. Phylogenetic reconstructions using combined molecular analyses and comparative whole genome analysis of the most diverse of the bullfrog strains verified affiliation with the genus Brucella and placed the isolates in a cluster containing B. inopinata and the other non-classical Brucella species but also revealed significant genetic differences within the group. Four representative but molecularly and phenotypically diverse strains were used for in vitro and in vivo infection experiments. All readily multiplied in macrophage-like murine J774-cells, and their overall intramacrophagic growth rate was comparable to that of B. inopinata BO1 and slightly higher than that of B. microti CCM 4915. In the BALB/c murine model of infection these strains replicated in both spleen and liver, but were less efficient than B. suis 1330. Some strains survived in the mammalian host for up to 12 weeks. The heterogeneity of these novel strains hampers a single species description but their phenotypic and genetic features suggest that they represent an evolutionary link between a soil-associated ancestor and the mammalian host-adapted pathogenic Brucella species. PMID:28300153

  7. Competing risks model in screening for preeclampsia by maternal characteristics and medical history.

    PubMed

    Wright, David; Syngelaki, Argyro; Akolekar, Ranjit; Poon, Leona C; Nicolaides, Kypros H

    2015-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a model for preeclampsia based on maternal demographic characteristics and medical history. This was a screening study of 120,492 singleton pregnancies at 11-13 weeks' gestation, including 2704 pregnancies (2.2%) that experienced preeclampsia. A survival-time model for the gestational age at delivery with preeclampsia was developed from variables of maternal characteristics and history. This approach assumes that, if the pregnancy was to continue indefinitely, all women would experience preeclampsia and that whether they do so or not before a specified gestational age depends on competition between delivery before or after development of preeclampsia. A 5-fold cross validation study was conducted to compare the performance of the new model with the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines. In the new model, increased risk for preeclampsia, with a consequent shift in the Gaussian distribution of the gestational age at delivery with preeclampsia to the left, is provided by advancing maternal age, increasing weight, Afro-Caribbean and South Asian racial origin, medical history of chronic hypertension, diabetes mellitus and systemic lupus erythematosus or antiphospholipid syndrome, family history and personal history of preeclampsia, and conception by in vitro fertilization. The risk for preeclampsia decreases with increasing maternal height and in parous women with no previous preeclampsia; in the latter, the protective effect, which is related inversely to the interpregnancy interval, persists beyond 15 years. At a screen-positive rate of 11%, as defined by NICE, the new model predicted 40%, 48%, and 54% of cases of total preeclampsia and preeclampsia requiring delivery at <37 and <34 weeks' gestation, respectively, which were significantly higher than the respective values of 35%, 40%, and 44% achieved by application of NICE guidelines. A new model that is based on maternal characteristics and

  8. Thirty-Day Postoperative Mortality Risk Estimates and 1-Year Survival in Veterans Health Administration Surgery Patients.

    PubMed

    Smith, Tracy; Li, Xinli; Nylander, William; Gunnar, William

    2016-05-01

    For more than 2 decades, the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) has relied on risk-adjusted, postoperative, 30-day mortality data as a measure of surgical quality of care. Recently, the use of 30-day mortality data has been criticized based on a theory that health care professionals manage patient care to meet the metric and that other outcome metrics are available. To determine whether postoperative mortality data identify a delay in care to meet a 30-day mortality metric and to evaluate whether 30-day mortality risk score groups stratify survival patterns up to 365 days after surgery in surgical procedures assessed by the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). Patients undergoing VASQIP-assessed surgical procedures within the VHA from October 1, 2011, to September 30, 2013, were evaluated. Data on 365-day survival follow-up of 212 733 surgical cases using VHA Vital Status and admission records were obtained with 10 947 mortality events. Data analysis was conducted from September 3, 2014, to November 9, 2015. Survival up to 365 days after surgery for the overall cohort divided into 10 equal groups (deciles). There were 10 947 mortality events identified in a cohort of 212 733 surgical patients. The mean probability of death was 1.03% (95% CI, 1.01%-1.04%). Risk estimate groups in the 212 733 surgical cases analyzed showed significantly different postoperative survival, with consistency beyond the time frame for which they were developed. The lowest risk decile had the highest 365-day survival probability (99.74%; 95% CI, 99.66%-99.80%); the highest risk decile had the lowest 365-day survival probability (72.04%; 95% CI, 71.43%-72.64%). The 9 lowest risk deciles had linear survival curves from 0 to 365 postoperative days, with the highest risk decile having early survival risk and becoming more linear after the first 180 days. Survival curves between 25 and 35 days were consistent for all risk deciles and showed no evidence that

  9. Competing risk models in reliability systems, a weibull distribution model with bayesian analysis approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iskandar, Ismed; Satria Gondokaryono, Yudi

    2016-02-01

    In reliability theory, the most important problem is to determine the reliability of a complex system from the reliability of its components. The weakness of most reliability theories is that the systems are described and explained as simply functioning or failed. In many real situations, the failures may be from many causes depending upon the age and the environment of the system and its components. Another problem in reliability theory is one of estimating the parameters of the assumed failure models. The estimation may be based on data collected over censored or uncensored life tests. In many reliability problems, the failure data are simply quantitatively inadequate, especially in engineering design and maintenance system. The Bayesian analyses are more beneficial than the classical one in such cases. The Bayesian estimation analyses allow us to combine past knowledge or experience in the form of an apriori distribution with life test data to make inferences of the parameter of interest. In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Bayesian estimation analyses to competing risk systems. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure by using the Weibull distribution as our model. A simulation is conducted for this distribution with the objectives of verifying the models and the estimators and investigating the performance of the estimators for varying sample size. The simulation data are analyzed by using Bayesian and the maximum likelihood analyses. The simulation results show that the change of the true of parameter relatively to another will change the value of standard deviation in an opposite direction. For a perfect information on the prior distribution, the estimation methods of the Bayesian analyses are better than those of the maximum likelihood. The sensitivity analyses show some amount of sensitivity over the shifts of the prior locations. They also show the robustness of the Bayesian analysis within the range

  10. HDAC1 and HDAC2 independently predict mortality in hepatocellular carcinoma by a competing risk regression model in a Southeast Asian population

    PubMed Central

    LER, SER YENG; LEUNG, CAROL HO WING; KHIN, LAY WAI; LU, GUO-DONG; SALTO-TELLEZ, MANUEL; HARTMAN, MIKAEL; IAU, PHILIP TSAU CHOONG; YAP, CELESTIAL T.; HOOI, SHING CHUAN

    2015-01-01

    Histone deacetylases (HDACs) are enzymes involved in transcriptional repression. We aimed to examine the significance of HDAC1 and HDAC2 gene expression in the prediction of recurrence and survival in 156 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among a South East Asian population who underwent curative surgical resection in Singapore. We found that HDAC1 and HDAC2 were upregulated in the majority of HCC tissues. The presence of HDAC1 in tumor tissues was correlated with poor tumor differentiation. Notably, HDAC1 expression in adjacent non-tumor hepatic tissues was correlated with the presence of satellite nodules and multiple lesions, suggesting that HDAC1 upregulation within the field of HCC may contribute to tumor spread. Using competing risk regression analysis, we found that increased cancer-specific mortality was significantly associated with HDAC2 expression. Mortality was also increased with high HDAC1 expression. In the liver cancer cell lines, HEP3B, HEPG2, PLC5, and a colorectal cancer cell line, HCT116, the combined knockdown of HDAC1 and HDAC2 increased cell death and reduced cell proliferation as well as colony formation. In contrast, knockdown of either HDAC1 or HDAC2 alone had minimal effects on cell death and proliferation. Taken together, our study suggests that both HDAC1 and HDAC2 exert pro-survival effects in HCC cells, and the combination of isoform-specific HDAC inhibitors against both HDACs may be effective in targeting HCC to reduce mortality. PMID:26352599

  11. Arthritis and the Risk of Falling Into Poverty: A Survival Analysis Using Australian Data.

    PubMed

    Callander, Emily J; Schofield, Deborah J

    2016-01-01

    Low income is known to be associated with having arthritis. However, no longitudinal studies have documented the relationship between developing arthritis and falling into poverty. The purpose of this study was to evaluate Australians who developed arthritis to determine if they had an elevated risk of falling into poverty. Survival analysis using Cox regression models was applied to nationally representative, longitudinal survey data obtained between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2012 from Australian adults who were ages 21 years and older in 2007. The hazard ratio for falling into income poverty was 1.08 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.06-1.09) in women who were diagnosed as having arthritis and 1.15 (95% CI 1.13-1.16) in men who were diagnosed as having arthritis, as compared to those who were never diagnosed as having arthritis. The hazard ratio for falling into multidimensional poverty was 1.15 (95% CI 1.14-1.17) in women who were diagnosed as having arthritis and 1.88 (95% CI 1.85-1.91) in men who were diagnosed as having arthritis. Developing arthritis increases the risk of falling into income poverty and multidimensional poverty. The risk of multidimensional poverty is greater than the risk of income poverty. Given the high prevalence of arthritis, the condition is likely an overlooked driver of poverty. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

  12. Mortality Risk Factors for Patients with Septic Shock after Implementation of the Surviving Sepsis Campaign Bundles

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Moo Hyun; Jeong, Woo Yong; Jung, In Young; Oh, Dong Hyun; Kim, Yong Chan; Kim, Eun Jin; Jeong, Su Jin; Ku, Nam Su; Kim, June Myung

    2016-01-01

    Background Septic shock remains a leading cause of death, despite advances in critical care management. The Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) has reduced morbidity and mortality. This study evaluated risk factors for mortality in patients with septic shock who received treatment following the SSC bundles. Materials and Methods This retrospective cohort study included patients with septic shock who received treatments following SSC bundles in an urban emergency department between November 2007 and November 2011. Primary and secondary endpoints were all-cause 7- and 28-day mortality. Results Among 436 patients, 7- and 28-day mortality rates were 7.11% (31/436) and 14% (61/436), respectively. In multivariate analysis, high lactate level (odds ratio [OR], 1.286; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.016–1.627; P=0.036) and low estimated glomerular filtration rate (OR, 0.953; 95% CI, 0.913–0.996; P=0.032) were independent risk factors for 7-day mortality. Risk factors for 28-day mortality were high lactate level (OR, 1.346; 95% CI, 1.083–1.673; P=0.008) and high Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score (OR, 1.153; 95% CI, 1.029–1.293; P=0.014). Conclusion The risk of mortality of septic shock patients remains high in patients with high lactate levels and acute kidney injury. PMID:27659434

  13. Finding Risk Groups by Optimizing Artificial Neural Networks on the Area under the Survival Curve Using Genetic Algorithms

    PubMed Central

    Kalderstam, Jonas; Edén, Patrik; Ohlsson, Mattias

    2015-01-01

    We investigate a new method to place patients into risk groups in censored survival data. Properties such as median survival time, and end survival rate, are implicitly improved by optimizing the area under the survival curve. Artificial neural networks (ANN) are trained to either maximize or minimize this area using a genetic algorithm, and combined into an ensemble to predict one of low, intermediate, or high risk groups. Estimated patient risk can influence treatment choices, and is important for study stratification. A common approach is to sort the patients according to a prognostic index and then group them along the quartile limits. The Cox proportional hazards model (Cox) is one example of this approach. Another method of doing risk grouping is recursive partitioning (Rpart), which constructs a decision tree where each branch point maximizes the statistical separation between the groups. ANN, Cox, and Rpart are compared on five publicly available data sets with varying properties. Cross-validation, as well as separate test sets, are used to validate the models. Results on the test sets show comparable performance, except for the smallest data set where Rpart’s predicted risk groups turn out to be inverted, an example of crossing survival curves. Cross-validation shows that all three models exhibit crossing of some survival curves on this small data set but that the ANN model manages the best separation of groups in terms of median survival time before such crossings. The conclusion is that optimizing the area under the survival curve is a viable approach to identify risk groups. Training ANNs to optimize this area combines two key strengths from both prognostic indices and Rpart. First, a desired minimum group size can be specified, as for a prognostic index. Second, the ability to utilize non-linear effects among the covariates, which Rpart is also able to do. PMID:26352405

  14. Finding Risk Groups by Optimizing Artificial Neural Networks on the Area under the Survival Curve Using Genetic Algorithms.

    PubMed

    Kalderstam, Jonas; Edén, Patrik; Ohlsson, Mattias

    2015-01-01

    We investigate a new method to place patients into risk groups in censored survival data. Properties such as median survival time, and end survival rate, are implicitly improved by optimizing the area under the survival curve. Artificial neural networks (ANN) are trained to either maximize or minimize this area using a genetic algorithm, and combined into an ensemble to predict one of low, intermediate, or high risk groups. Estimated patient risk can influence treatment choices, and is important for study stratification. A common approach is to sort the patients according to a prognostic index and then group them along the quartile limits. The Cox proportional hazards model (Cox) is one example of this approach. Another method of doing risk grouping is recursive partitioning (Rpart), which constructs a decision tree where each branch point maximizes the statistical separation between the groups. ANN, Cox, and Rpart are compared on five publicly available data sets with varying properties. Cross-validation, as well as separate test sets, are used to validate the models. Results on the test sets show comparable performance, except for the smallest data set where Rpart's predicted risk groups turn out to be inverted, an example of crossing survival curves. Cross-validation shows that all three models exhibit crossing of some survival curves on this small data set but that the ANN model manages the best separation of groups in terms of median survival time before such crossings. The conclusion is that optimizing the area under the survival curve is a viable approach to identify risk groups. Training ANNs to optimize this area combines two key strengths from both prognostic indices and Rpart. First, a desired minimum group size can be specified, as for a prognostic index. Second, the ability to utilize non-linear effects among the covariates, which Rpart is also able to do.

  15. Changes over calendar time in the risk of specific first AIDS-defining events following HIV seroconversion, adjusting for competing risks

    PubMed Central

    Babiker, Abdel; Darbyshire, Janet; Pezzotti, Patrizio; Porter, Kholoud; Rezza, Giovanni; Walker, Sarah A; Beral, Valerie; Coutinho, Roel; Del Amo, Julia; Gill, Noël; Lee, Christine; Meyer, Laurence; Tyrer, Freya; Dabis, François; Thiébaut, Rodolphe; Lawson-Aye, Sylvie; Boufassa, Faroudy; Hamouda, Osamah; Fischer, Klaus; Pezzotti, Patrizio; Touloumi, Giota; Hatzakis, Angelos; Karafoulidou, Anastasia; Katsarou, Olga; Brettle, Ray; Del Romero, Jorge; Prins, Maria; Van Benthem, Birgit; Kirk, Ole; Pederson, Court; Hernández Aguado, Idelfonso; Pérez-Hoyos, Santiago; Eskild, Anne; Bruun, Johan N; Sannes, Mette; Sabin, Caroline; Johnson, Anne M; Phillips, Andrew N; Francioli, Patrick; Vanhems, Philippe; Egger, Mathias; Rickenbach, Martin; Cooper, David; Kaldor, John; Ashton, Lesley; Vizzard, Jeanette; Muga, Roberto; Day, Nicholas E; De Angelis, Daniela

    2002-01-01

    Background Although studies have reported large reductions in the risks of AIDS and death since the introduction of potent anti-retroviral therapies, few have evaluated whether this has been similar for all AIDS-defining diseases. We wished to evaluate changes over time in the risk of specific AIDS-defining diseases, as first events, using data from individuals with known dates of HIV seroconversion. Methods Using a competing risks proportional hazards model on pooled data from 20 cohorts (CASCADE), we evaluated time from HIV seroconversion to each first AIDS-defining disease (16 groups) and to death without AIDS for four calendar periods, adjusting for exposure category, age, sex, acute infection, and stratifying by cohort. We compared results to those obtained from a cause-specific hazards model. Results Of 6941, 2021 (29%) developed AIDS and 437 (6%) died without AIDS. The risk of AIDS or death remained constant to 1996 then reduced; relative hazard = 0.89 (95% CI: 0.77–1.03); 0.90 (95% CI: 0.81–1.01); and 0.32 (95% CI: 0.28–0.37) for 1979–1990, 1991–1993, and 1997–2001, respectively, compared to 1994–1996. Significant risk reductions in 1997–2001 were observed in all but two AIDS-defining groups and death without AIDS in a competing risks model (with similar results from a cause-specific model). There was significant heterogeneity in the risk reduction across events; from 96% for cryptosporidiosis, to 17% for death without AIDS (P < 0.0001). Conclusion These findings suggest that studies reporting a stable trend for particular AIDS diseases over the period 1979–2001 may not have accounted for the competing risks among other events or lack the power to detect smaller trends. PMID:12435766

  16. Fatty Acid Synthase Polymorphisms, Tumor Expression, Body Mass Index, Prostate Cancer Risk, and Survival

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen, Paul L.; Ma, Jing; Chavarro, Jorge E.; Freedman, Matthew L.; Lis, Rosina; Fedele, Giuseppe; Fiore, Christopher; Qiu, Weiliang; Fiorentino, Michelangelo; Finn, Stephen; Penney, Kathryn L.; Eisenstein, Anna; Schumacher, Fredrick R.; Mucci, Lorelei A.; Stampfer, Meir J.; Giovannucci, Edward; Loda, Massimo

    2010-01-01

    Purpose Fatty acid synthase (FASN) regulates de novo lipogenesis, body weight, and tumor growth. We examined whether common germline single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the FASN gene affect prostate cancer (PCa) risk or PCa-specific mortality and whether these effects vary by body mass index (BMI). Methods In a prospective nested case-control study of 1,331 white patients with PCa and 1,267 age-matched controls, we examined associations of five common SNPs within FASN (and 5 kb upstream/downstream, R2 > 0.8) with PCa incidence and, among patients, PCa-specific death and tested for an interaction with BMI. Survival analyses were repeated for tumor FASN expression (n = 909). Results Four of the five SNPs were associated with lethal PCa. SNP rs1127678 was significantly related to higher BMI and interacted with BMI for both PCa risk (Pinteraction = .004) and PCa mortality (Pinteraction = .056). Among overweight men (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2), but not leaner men, the homozygous variant allele carried a relative risk of advanced PCa of 2.49 (95% CI, 1.00 to 6.23) compared with lean men with the wild type. Overweight patients carrying the variant allele had a 2.04 (95% CI, 1.31 to 3.17) times higher risk of PCa mortality. Similarly, overweight patients with elevated tumor FASN expression had a 2.73 (95% CI, 1.05 to 7.08) times higher risk of lethal PCa (Pinteraction = .02). Conclusion FASN germline polymorphisms were significantly associated with risk of lethal PCa. Significant interactions of BMI with FASN polymorphisms and FASN tumor expression suggest FASN as a potential link between obesity and poor PCa outcome and raise the possibility that FASN inhibition could reduce PCa-specific mortality, particularly in overweight men. PMID:20679621

  17. Do Breast Cancer Risk Factors Affect the Survival of Breast Cancer Patients in Southern Sri Lanka?

    PubMed

    Peiris, H H; Mudduwa, L K B; Thalagala, N I; Jayatilaka, K A P W

    2017-01-01

    Background: Breast cancer continues to be a major cause of morbidity among women in Sri Lanka. Possible effects of etiological risk factors on breast cancer specific survival (BCSS) of the disease is not clear.This study was designed to explore the impact of breast cancer risk factors on the BCSS of patients in Southern Sri Lanka. Method: This retro-prospective study included all breast cancer patients who had sought immunohistochemistry services at our unit from May 2006 to December 2012. A pre-tested, interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to gather information on risk factors. BCSS was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier model. Univariate Cox-regression analysis was performed with 95% confidence intervals using the SPSS statistical package. Results: A total of 944 breast cancer patients were included. Five year BCSS was 78.8%. There was a statistically significant difference between the patients who had a family history of breast cancer and no family history of any cancer in terms of the presence/absence of lymph node metastasis (p=0.011) and pathological stage (p=0.042). The majority of the premenopausal patients had associated DCIS (p<0.001) and large tumours (p=0.015) with positive lymph nodes (p=0.016). There was no statistically significant association between hormone receptor subtypes and hormone related risk factors. Univariate analysis revealed that breast cancer risk factors had no significant effect on the BCSS. Conclusion: Even though family history of breast cancer and premenopausal status are associated with poor prognostic features, they, in line with the other breast cancer risk factors, appear to have no significant effect on the BCSS of patients in Southern Sri Lanka.

  18. The risk of falling into poverty after developing heart disease: a survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Callander, Emily J; Schofield, Deborah J

    2016-07-15

    Those with a low income are known to have a higher risk of developing heart disease. However, the inverse relationship - falling into income poverty after developing heart disease has not been explored with longitudinal data. This paper aims to determine if those with heart disease have an elevated risk of falling into poverty. Survival analysis was conducted using the longitudinal Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey, between the years 2007 and 2012. The study focused on the Australian population aged 21 years and over in 2007 who were not already in poverty and did not already have heart disease, who were followed from 2007 to 2012. Cox regression models adjusting for age, sex and time-varying co-variates (marital status, home ownership and remoteness of area of residence) were constructed to assess the risk of falling into poverty. For those aged 20 who developed heart disease, the hazard ratio for falling into income poverty was 9.24 (95 % CI: 8.97-9.51) and for falling into multidimensional poverty the hazard ratio was 14.21 (95 % CI: 13.76-14.68); for those aged 40 the hazard ratio for falling into income poverty was 3.45 (95 % CI: 3.39-3.51) and for multidimensional poverty, 5.20 (95 % CI: 5.11-5.29); and for those aged 60 the hazard ratio for falling into income poverty was 1.29 (95 % CI: 1.28-1.30) and for multidimensional poverty, 1.52 (95 % CI: 1.51-1.54), relative those who never developed heart disease. The risk for both income and multidimensional poverty decreases with age up to the age of 70, over which, those who developed heart disease had a reduced risk of poverty. For those under the age of 70, developing heart disease is associated with an increased risk of falling into both income poverty and multidimensional poverty.

  19. Medical language proficiency: A discussion of interprofessional language competencies and potential for patient risk.

    PubMed

    Hull, Melodie

    2016-02-01

    In increasingly multilingual healthcare environments worldwide, ensuring accurate, effective communication is requisite. Language proficiency is essential, particularly medical language proficiency. Medical language is a universal construct in healthcare, the shared language of health and allied health professions. It is highly evolved, career-specific, technical and cultural-bound-a language for specific purposes. Its function differs significantly from that of a standard language. Proficiency requires at minimum, a common understanding of discipline-specific jargon, abstracts, euphemisms, abbreviations; acronyms. An optimal medical language situation demands a level of competency beyond the superficial wherein one can convey or interpret deeper meanings, distinguish themes, voice opinion, and follow directions precisely. It necessitates the use of clarity, and the ability to understand both lay and formal language-characteristics not essential to standard language. Proficiency influences professional discourse and can have the potential to positively or negatively affect patient outcomes. While risks have been identified when there is language discordance between care provider and patient, almost nothing has been said about this within care teams themselves. This article will do so in anticipation that care providers, regulators, employers, and researchers will acknowledge potential language-based communication barriers and work towards resolutions. This is predicated on the fact that the growing interest in language and communication in healthcare today appears to be rested in globalization and increasingly linguistically diverse patient populations. Consideration of the linguistically diverse healthcare workforce is absent. An argument will be posited that if potential risks to patient safety exist and there are potentials for disengagement from care by patients when health providers do not speak their languages then logically these language-based issues can

  20. Quantifying Cancer Absolute Risk and Cancer Mortality in the Presence of Competing Events after a Myotonic Dystrophy Diagnosis

    PubMed Central

    Gadalla, Shahinaz M.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Kristinsson, Sigurdur Y.; Björkholm, Magnus; Hilbert, James E.; Moxley, Richard T.; Landgren, Ola; Greene, Mark H.

    2013-01-01

    Recent studies show that patients with myotonic dystrophy (DM) have an increased risk of specific malignancies, but estimates of absolute cancer risk accounting for competing events are lacking. Using the Swedish Patient Registry, we identified 1,081 patients with an inpatient and/or outpatient diagnosis of DM between 1987 and 2007. Date and cause of death and date of cancer diagnosis were extracted from the Swedish Cause of Death and Cancer Registries. We calculated non-parametric estimates of absolute cancer risk and cancer mortality accounting for the high non-cancer competing mortality associated with DM. Absolute cancer risk after DM diagnosis was 1.6% (95% CI=0.4-4%), 5% (95% CI=3-9%) and 9% (95% CI=6-13%) at ages 40, 50 and 60 years, respectively. Females had a higher absolute risk of all cancers combined than males: 9% (95% CI=4-14), and 13% (95% CI=9-20) vs. 2% (95%CI= 0.7-6) and 4% (95%CI=2-8) by ages 50 and 60 years, respectively) and developed cancer at younger ages (median age =51 years, range=22-74 vs. 57, range=43-84, respectively, p=0.02). Cancer deaths accounted for 10% of all deaths, with an absolute cancer mortality risk of 2% (95%CI=1-4.5%), 4% (95%CI=2-6%), and 6% (95%CI=4-9%) by ages 50, 60, and 70 years, respectively. No gender difference in cancer-specific mortality was observed (p=0.6). In conclusion, cancer significantly contributes to morbidity and mortality in DM patients, even after accounting for high competing DM mortality from non-neoplastic causes. It is important to apply population-appropriate, validated cancer screening strategies in DM patients. PMID:24236163

  1. Complete Genome Analysis of Thermus parvatiensis and Comparative Genomics of Thermus spp. Provide Insights into Genetic Variability and Evolution of Natural Competence as Strategic Survival Attributes

    PubMed Central

    Tripathi, Charu; Mishra, Harshita; Khurana, Himani; Dwivedi, Vatsala; Kamra, Komal; Negi, Ram K.; Lal, Rup

    2017-01-01

    Thermophilic environments represent an interesting niche. Among thermophiles, the genus Thermus is among the most studied genera. In this study, we have sequenced the genome of Thermus parvatiensis strain RL, a thermophile isolated from Himalayan hot water springs (temperature >96°C) using PacBio RSII SMRT technique. The small genome (2.01 Mbp) comprises a chromosome (1.87 Mbp) and a plasmid (143 Kbp), designated in this study as pTP143. Annotation revealed a high number of repair genes, a squeezed genome but containing highly plastic plasmid with transposases, integrases, mobile elements and hypothetical proteins (44%). We performed a comparative genomic study of the group Thermus with an aim of analysing the phylogenetic relatedness as well as niche specific attributes prevalent among the group. We compared the reference genome RL with 16 Thermus genomes to assess their phylogenetic relationships based on 16S rRNA gene sequences, average nucleotide identity (ANI), conserved marker genes (31 and 400), pan genome and tetranucleotide frequency. The core genome of the analyzed genomes contained 1,177 core genes and many singleton genes were detected in individual genomes, reflecting a conserved core but adaptive pan repertoire. We demonstrated the presence of metagenomic islands (chromosome:5, plasmid:5) by recruiting raw metagenomic data (from the same niche) against the genomic replicons of T. parvatiensis. We also dissected the CRISPR loci wide all genomes and found widespread presence of this system across Thermus genomes. Additionally, we performed a comparative analysis of competence loci wide Thermus genomes and found evidence for recent horizontal acquisition of the locus and continued dispersal among members reflecting that natural competence is a beneficial survival trait among Thermus members and its acquisition depicts unending evolution in order to accomplish optimal fitness. PMID:28798737

  2. Risk Management. Unit 20. Level 3. Instructor Guide. PACE: Program for Acquiring Competence in Entrepreneurship. Third Edition. Research & Development Series No. 303-20.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ohio State Univ., Columbus. Center on Education and Training for Employment.

    This instructor guide for a unit on risk management in the PACE (Program for Acquiring Competence in Entrepreneurship) curriculum includes the full text of the student module and lesson plans, instructional suggestions, and other teacher resources. The competencies that are incorporated into this module are at Level 3 of learning--starting and…

  3. Risk Management. Unit 20. Level 2. Instructor Guide. PACE: Program for Acquiring Competence in Entrepreneurship. Third Edition. Research & Development Series No. 302-20.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ohio State Univ., Columbus. Center on Education and Training for Employment.

    This instructor guide for a unit on risk management in the PACE (Program for Acquiring Competence in Entrepreneurship) curriculum includes the full text of the student module and lesson plans, instructional suggestions, and other teacher resources. The competencies that are incorporated into this module are at Level 2 of learning--planning for a…

  4. [Essential thrombocythemia: baseline characteristics and risk factors for survival and thrombosis in a series of 214 patients].

    PubMed

    Angona, Anna; Alvarez-Larrán, Alberto; Bellosillo, Beatriz; Martínez-Avilés, Luz; Garcia-Pallarols, Francesc; Longarón, Raquel; Ancochea, Àgueda; Besses, Carles

    2015-03-15

    Two prognostic models to predict overall survival and thrombosis-free survival have been proposed: International Prognostic Score for Essential Thrombocythemia (IPSET) and IPSET-Thrombosis, respectively, based on age, leukocytes count, history of previous thrombosis, the presence of cardiovascular risk factors and the JAK2 mutational status. The aim of the present study was to assess the clinical and biological characteristics at diagnosis and during evolution in essential thrombocythemia (ET) patients as well as the factors associated with survival and thrombosis and the usefulness of these new prognostic models. We have evaluated the clinical data and the mutation status of JAK2, MPL and calreticulin of 214 ET patients diagnosed in a single center between 1985 and 2012, classified according to classical risk stratification, IPSET and IPSET-Thrombosis. With a median follow-up of 6.9 years, overall survival was not associated with any variable by multivariate analysis. Thrombotic history and leukocytes>10×10(9)/l were associated with thrombosis-free survival (TFS). In our series, IPSET prognostic systems of survival and thrombosis did not provide more clinically relevant information regarding the classic risk of thrombosis stratification. Thrombotic history and leukocytosis>10×10(9)/l were significantly associated with lower TFS, while the prognostic IPSET-Thrombosis system did not provide more information than classical thrombotic risk assessment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  5. Response to 'Avoidance of sun exposure as a risk factor for major causes of death: a competing risk analysis of the Melanoma in Southern Sweden cohort'.

    PubMed

    Hoffmann, S; Sobotzki, C

    2017-03-23

    Lindqvist et al. [1] recently published a mortality analysis in a prospective cohort of 29 518 Sweden-born women. Using a competing risk framework, the authors observed an increased mortality by cardiovascular disease (CVD) and noncancer/non-CVD for women who avoided sun exposure. A. Torres, the president of the American Academy of Dermatology, already addressed a number of limitations which are important in the interpretation of this study [2]. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  6. Burden of Liver Abscess and Survival Risk Score in Thailand: A Population-Based Study.

    PubMed

    Poovorawan, Kittiyod; Pan-Ngum, Wirichada; Soonthornworasiri, Ngamphol; Kulrat, Chotipa; Kittitrakul, Chatporn; Wilairatana, Polrat; Treeprasertsuk, Sombat; Kitsahawong, Bubpha; Phaosawasdi, Kamthorn

    2016-09-07

    In Thailand, the burden of liver abscess, a life-threatening infectious disease, has not been thoroughly evaluated. We developed a predictive scoring system to estimate survival of patients with liver abscess using information from the 2008-2013 Nationwide Hospital Admission Data to evaluate the burden of liver abscess in Thailand. All patients with primary diagnosis of pyogenic liver abscess (PLA) and amoebic liver abscess (ALA) were included. Epidemiological data, baseline characteristics, hospital course, and survival were analyzed. Overall, 11,296 admissions comprising 8,423 patients from 844 hospitals across Thailand were eligible for analysis. The mean age was 52 ± 17 years and 66.1% of patients were male. ALA was significantly prevalent in southern and western border regions of Thailand, and PLA occurred nationwide. The highest incidence of liver abscess occurred in the rainy season (June-November, P < 0.01). The median length of hospital stay was 8 days (interquartile range = 4-13 days), and mean direct cost of hospitalization was 846 ± 1,574 USD. The overall inhospital mortality rate was 2.8%. Incidence of ALA decreased over the 5-year study period, whereas PLA incidence increased (P < 0.01). Using multivariable Cox regression methods with stepwise variable selection, we developed a final model with five highly significant baseline parameters associated with increased 60-day mortality: older age, PLA, underlying chronic kidney disease, cirrhosis, and human immunodeficiency virus infection. Range of estimated probability of 60-day survival was 95-16% at cumulative risk score 0-13. This simplified score is practical, and may help clinicians prioritize patients requiring more intensive care. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  7. Personalized Prognostic Risk Score for Long-Term Survival for Children with Acute Leukemia after Allogeneic Transplantation.

    PubMed

    Bitan, Menachem; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Millard, Heather R; Pulsipher, Michael A; Abdel-Azim, Hisham; Auletta, Jeffery J; Brown, Valerie; Chan, Ka Wah; Diaz, Miguel Angel; Dietz, Andrew; Vincent, Marta González; Guilcher, Gregory; Hale, Gregory A; Hayashi, Robert J; Keating, Amy; Mehta, Parinda; Myers, Kasiani; Page, Kristin; Prestidge, Tim; Shah, Nirali N; Smith, Angela R; Woolfrey, Ann; Thiel, Elizabeth; Davies, Stella M; Eapen, Mary

    2017-09-01

    We studied leukemia-free (LFS) and overall survival (OS) in children with acute myeloid (AML, n = 790) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL, n = 1096) who underwent transplantation between 2000 and 2010 and who survived for at least 1 year in remission after related or unrelated donor transplantation. Analysis of patient-, disease-, and transplantation characteristics and acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) was performed to identify factors with adverse effects on LFS and OS. These data were used to develop risk scores for survival. We did not identify any prognostic factors beyond 4 years after transplantation for AML and beyond 3 years for ALL. Risk score for survival for AML includes age, disease status at transplantation, cytogenetic risk group, and chronic GVHD. For ALL, the risk score includes age at transplantation and chronic GVHD. The 10-year probabilities of OS for AML with good (score 0, 1, or 2), intermediate (score 3), and poor risk (score 4, 5, 6, or 7) were 94%, 87%, and 68%, respectively. The 10-year probabilities of OS for ALL were 89% and 80% for good (score 0 or 1) and poor risk (score 2), respectively. Identifying children at risk for late mortality with early intervention may mitigate some excess late mortality. Copyright © 2017 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. HEMORRHAGIC CYSTITIS AFTER ALLOGENEIC HEMATOPOIETIC CELL TRANSPLANTATION: RISK FACTORS, GRAFT SOURCE, AND SURVIVAL

    PubMed Central

    Lunde, Laura E.; Dasaraju, Sandhyarani; Cao, Qing; Cohn, Claudia S.; Reding, Mark; Bejanyan, Nelli; Trottier, Bryan; Rogosheske, John; Brunstein, Claudio; Warlick, Erica; Young, Jo Anne H.; Weisdorf, Daniel J.; Ustun, Celalettin

    2017-01-01

    Although hemorrhagic cystitis (HC) is a common complication of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (alloHCT), its risk factors and effects on survival are not well-known. We evaluated HC in a large cohort (n=1321, 2003 – 2012) receiving alloHCT from all graft sources, including umbilical cord blood (UCB). We compared HC patients with non-HC (control) patients and examined clinical variables at HC onset and resolution. Of these 1321 patients, 219 (16.6%) developed HC at a median of 22 days after alloHCT. BK viruria was detected in 90% of 109 tested HC patients. Median duration of HC was 27 days. At the time of HC diagnosis, acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD), fever, severe thrombocytopenia, and steroid use were more frequent than at the time of HC resolution. In univariate analysis, male sex, age <20 years, myeloablative conditioning with cyclophosphamide and acute GVHD were associated with HC. In multivariate analysis, HC was significantly more common in males and HLA-mismatched UCB graft recipients. Severe grade HC (grade III–IV) was associated with increased treatment-related mortality (TRM) but not with overall survival at 1 year. HC remains hazardous and therefore better prophylaxis and early interventions to limit its severity are still needed. PMID:26168069

  9. Declines in fatal crashes of older drivers: changes in crash risk and survivability.

    PubMed

    Cheung, Ivan; McCartt, Anne T

    2011-05-01

    Previous research has found that older driver fatal crash involvement rates per licensed driver declined substantially in the United States during 1997-2006 and declined much faster than the rate for middle-age drivers. The current study examined whether the larger-than-expected decline for older drivers extended to nonfatal crashes and whether the decline in fatal crash risk reflects lower likelihood of crashing or an improvement in survivability of the crashes that occur. Trends in the rates of passenger vehicle crash involvements per 100,000 licensed drivers for drivers 70 and older (older drivers) were compared with trends for drivers ages 35-54 (middle-age drivers). Fatal crash information was obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System for years 1997-2008, and nonfatal crash information was obtained from 13 states with good reporting information for years 1997-2005. Analysis of covariance models compared trends in annual crash rates for older drivers relative to rates for middle-age drivers. Differences in crash survivability were measured in terms of the odds of fatality given a crash each year, and the historical trends for older versus middle-age drivers were compared. Fatal crash involvement rates declined for older and middle-age drivers during 1997-2008 (1997-2005 for the 13 state subsample), but the decline for drivers 70 and older far exceeded the decline for drivers ages 35-54 (37 versus 23 percent, nationally; 22 versus 1 percent, 13 states). Nonfatal injury crash involvement rates showed similarly larger-than-expected declines for older drivers in the 13 state subsample, but the differences were smaller and not statistically significant (27 percent reduction for older drivers versus 16 percent for middle-age drivers). Property-damage-only crash involvement rates declined for older drivers (10 percent) but increased for middle-age drivers (1 percent). In 1997, older drivers were 3.5 times more likely than middle-age drivers to die in police

  10. Mortality risk and survival in the aftermath of the medieval Black Death.

    PubMed

    DeWitte, Sharon N

    2014-01-01

    The medieval Black Death (c. 1347-1351) was one of the most devastating epidemics in human history. It killed tens of millions of Europeans, and recent analyses have shown that the disease targeted elderly adults and individuals who had been previously exposed to physiological stressors. Following the epidemic, there were improvements in standards of living, particularly in dietary quality for all socioeconomic strata. This study investigates whether the combination of the selective mortality of the Black Death and post-epidemic improvements in standards of living had detectable effects on survival and mortality in London. Samples are drawn from several pre- and post-Black Death London cemeteries. The pre-Black Death sample comes from the Guildhall Yard (n = 75) and St. Nicholas Shambles (n = 246) cemeteries, which date to the 11th-12th centuries, and from two phases within the St. Mary Spital cemetery, which date to between 1120-1300 (n = 143). The St. Mary Graces cemetery (n = 133) was in use from 1350-1538 and thus represents post-epidemic demographic conditions. By applying Kaplan-Meier analysis and the Gompertz hazard model to transition analysis age estimates, and controlling for changes in birth rates, this study examines differences in survivorship and mortality risk between the pre- and post-Black Death populations of London. The results indicate that there are significant differences in survival and mortality risk, but not birth rates, between the two time periods, which suggest improvements in health following the Black Death, despite repeated outbreaks of plague in the centuries after the Black Death.

  11. Nutritional status of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation recipients: influencing risk factors and impact on survival.

    PubMed

    El-Ghammaz, Amro Mohamed Sedky; Ben Matoug, Rima; Elzimaity, Maha; Mostafa, Nevine

    2017-04-24

    Patients subjected to allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) are at increased nutritional risk which in turn may alter their outcome. For providing good nutritional care for patients, it is important to analyze risk factors influencing nutritional status during and after HSCT. Fifty patients undergoing allogeneic HSCT were subjected to nutritional status assessment by using the patient-generated subjective global assessment (PG-SGA) at initial admission, day 30 and day 180. Two patients (4%) had malnutrition at admission, 36 (72%) at day 30, and 24 (48%) at day 180. At day 30, comorbidity index higher than 0 and fever lasting for more than 1 week had a significant impact on nutritional status (P = .004 and P = .006, respectively). Regarding day 180, comorbidity index higher than 0 and presence of ≥grade II acute gastrointestinal graft versus host disease (GI GVHD) significantly influenced nutritional status (P = .017 and P = .026, respectively). Well-nourished patients at admission and day 180 had a significantly higher overall survival (OS) in comparison to malnourished patients (P < .001 and P = .012, respectively). Nutritional status at admission and day 180 had a significant influence on OS in multivariate analysis (P = .039 and P = .032, respectively). Allogeneic HSCT patients having high comorbidity index, developing prolonged fever, and experiencing ≥grade II acute GI GVHD suffer from worsening in their nutritional status during hospitalization and after discharge. Also, nutritional status at admission and day 180 significantly influences their survival.

  12. Acute Graft Pyelonephritis Occurring up to 30 Days After Kidney Transplantation: Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and Survival.

    PubMed

    Kroth, L V; Barreiro, F F; Saitovitch, D; Traesel, M A; d'Avila, D O L; Poli-de-Figueiredo, C E

    2016-09-01

    Acute graft pyelonephritis is a very common infection in renal transplantation. The impact of acute graft pyelonephritis (AGPN) on graft and patient outcome has not yet been established. Eight hundred seventy kidney and kidney-pancreas transplants were retrospectively studied, over last 13 years, to verify occurrence of AGPN in the first 30 days post-transplantation. We found that 112 patients (15.8%) presented post-transplantatiom AGPN up to 30 days after a kidney transplantation. The occurrence was higher in older patients (P = .005) and in those with ureteral stents (P = .06). Escherichia coli was the most frequent microorganism in urine cultures (32%). Ureteral stent (relative risk = 1.7; confidence interval [CI], 1.1-2.5; P = .018) was a major risk factor for AGPN as well as older ages (RR = 1.02; CI 1.01-1.04; P = .001), length of hospitalization stay (RR = 1.01; CI, 1.01-1.02; P < .001), and anti-thymocyte globulin (ATG) induction (RR = 1.6; CI, 1.022-2.561; P = .04). Long-term graft and patient survival was significantly lower in patients with pyelonephritis in the first 30 days after transplantation (OR 1.43; 95% CI, 0.95-2.16; P = .024 and OR 1.77; 95% CI, 1.12-2.80; P = .006, respectively). Acute pyelonephritis in the first 30 days after transplantation is therefore associated with a lower long-term graft and patient survival. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Mortality Risk and Survival in the Aftermath of the Medieval Black Death

    PubMed Central

    DeWitte, Sharon N.

    2014-01-01

    The medieval Black Death (c. 1347-1351) was one of the most devastating epidemics in human history. It killed tens of millions of Europeans, and recent analyses have shown that the disease targeted elderly adults and individuals who had been previously exposed to physiological stressors. Following the epidemic, there were improvements in standards of living, particularly in dietary quality for all socioeconomic strata. This study investigates whether the combination of the selective mortality of the Black Death and post-epidemic improvements in standards of living had detectable effects on survival and mortality in London. Samples are drawn from several pre- and post-Black Death London cemeteries. The pre-Black Death sample comes from the Guildhall Yard (n = 75) and St. Nicholas Shambles (n = 246) cemeteries, which date to the 11th–12th centuries, and from two phases within the St. Mary Spital cemetery, which date to between 1120-1300 (n = 143). The St. Mary Graces cemetery (n = 133) was in use from 1350–1538 and thus represents post-epidemic demographic conditions. By applying Kaplan-Meier analysis and the Gompertz hazard model to transition analysis age estimates, and controlling for changes in birth rates, this study examines differences in survivorship and mortality risk between the pre- and post-Black Death populations of London. The results indicate that there are significant differences in survival and mortality risk, but not birth rates, between the two time periods, which suggest improvements in health following the Black Death, despite repeated outbreaks of plague in the centuries after the Black Death. PMID:24806459

  14. A comparison of survival models for assessing risk of racehorse fatality.

    PubMed

    Henley, W E; Rogers, K; Harkins, L; Wood, J L N

    2006-04-17

    Survival analysis was used to assess risk factors for fatal injuries on UK race courses. This allowed assessment of variation due to temporal horse-level effects, including previous racing intensity and historical distribution of race types, as well as race-level factors. Comparisons were made between measuring survival time as number of days and as number of races to injury from the first race. Two related models were presented for time as number of races to injury: a Cox regression model fitted using partial likelihood, with the Efron approximation to handling ties, and a discrete-time logit model fitted using maximum likelihood. The latter approach had the advantages of being computationally more efficient and enabling the testing of different functional forms for the dependence of hazard on time. Retrospective data were available from all race starts on the 59 courses in Britain from 1990 to the end of 1999, as analysed by . The analysis was conducted on the data for the 47,424 horses that had started racing in the UK: 538,895 starts with 1,228 fatal injuries. Horses starting racing abroad were excluded, but some included horses would have raced abroad at some stage during their racing career. The results for the selected models were broadly consistent with each other and with previously published studies. Steeplechase and hurdle races had a higher risk of fatal injury than flat races (relative hazards 1.5 and 1.7, respectively). Risk increased with the firmness of surface, age and race distance (reaching a plateau at 20 furlongs) and decreased with previous racing intensity (reaching a plateau after seven races run in the last 12 months). Horses running their first race of a new type were also found to be at higher risk (relative hazard 1.5). The main difference between the models for time as number of days and number of races concerned the role of age: age at race was identified as the more important factor in the latter model, whereas, age at first race was

  15. Risk Adjusting Survival Outcomes in Hospitals That Treat Patients With Cancer Without Information on Cancer Stage.

    PubMed

    Pfister, David G; Rubin, David M; Elkin, Elena B; Neill, Ushma S; Duck, Elaine; Radzyner, Mark; Bach, Peter B

    2015-12-01

    Instituting widespread measurement of outcomes for cancer hospitals using administrative data is difficult owing to lack of cancer-specific information such as disease stage. To evaluate the performance of hospitals that treat patients with cancer using Medicare data for outcome ascertainment and risk adjustment and to assess whether hospital rankings based on these measures are altered by the addition of cancer-specific information. Risk-adjusted cumulative mortality rates of patients with cancer were captured in Medicare claims data from 2005 through 2009 nationally and assessed at the hospital level. Similar analyses were conducted using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare data for the subset of the United States covered by the SEER program to determine whether the inclusion of cancer-specific information (only available in cancer registries) in risk adjustment altered measured hospital performance. Data were from 729 279 fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries treated for cancer in 2006 at hospitals treating 10 or more patients with each of the following cancers, according to Medicare claims: lung, prostate, breast, colon, and other. An additional sample of 18 677 similar patients were included from the SEER-Medicare administrative data. Risk-adjusted mortality overall and by cancer category, stratified by type of hospital; measures of correlation and agreement between hospital-level outcomes risk adjusted using Medicare data alone and Medicare data with SEER data. There were large survival differences between different types of hospitals that treat Medicare patients with cancer. At 1 year, mortality for patients treated by hospitals exempt from the Medicare prospective payment system was 10% lower than at community hospitals (18% vs 28%) across all cancers, and the pattern persisted through 5 years of follow-up and within specific cancer categories. Performance ranking of hospitals was consistent with or without SEER-Medicare disease

  16. The Advanced Dementia Prognostic Tool (ADEPT): A Risk Score to Estimate Survival in Nursing Home Residents with Advanced Dementia

    PubMed Central

    Mitchell, Susan L.; Miller, Susan C.; Teno, Joan M.; Davis, Roger B.; Shaffer, Michele L.

    2010-01-01

    Context Estimating life expectancy is challenging in advanced dementia. Objectives To create a risk score to estimate survival in nursing home (NH) residents with advanced dementia. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study performed in the setting of all licensed US NHs. Residents with advanced dementia living in US NHs in 2002 were identified using Minimum Data Set (MDS) assessments. Mortality data from Medicare files were used to determine 12-month survival. Independent variables were selected from the MDS. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to model survival. The accuracy of the final model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). To develop a risk score, points were assigned to variables in the final model based on parameter estimates. Residents meeting hospice eligibility guidelines for dementia, based on MDS data, were identified. The AUROC assessed the accuracy of hospice guidelines to predict six-month survival. Results Over 12 months, 40.6% of residents with advanced dementia (n=22,405) died. Twelve variables best predicted survival: length of stay, age, male, dyspnea, pressure ulcers, total functional dependence, bedfast, insufficient intake, bowel incontinence, body mass index, weight loss, and congestive heart failure. The AUROC for the final model was 0.68. The risk score ranged from 0–32 points (higher scores indicate worse survival). Only 15.9% of residents met hospice eligibility guidelines for which the AUROC predicting six-month survival was 0.53. Conclusion A mortality risk score derived from MDS data predicted six-month survival in advanced dementia with moderate accuracy. The predictive ability of hospice guidelines, simulated with MDS data, was poor. PMID:20621437

  17. [Mortality in early-stage, surgically resected non-small cell lung cancer less than 3 cm of size: Competing risk analysis].

    PubMed

    Jordá Aragón, Carlos; Peñalver Cuesta, Juan Carlos; Mancheño Franch, Nuria; de Aguiar Quevedo, Karol; Vera Sempere, Francisco; Padilla Alarcón, José

    2015-09-07

    Survival studies of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are usually based on the Kaplan-Meier method. However, other factors not covered by this method may modify the observation of the event of interest. There are models of cumulative incidence (CI), that take into account these competing risks, enabling more accurate survival estimates and evaluation of the risk of death from other causes. We aimed to evaluate these models in resected early-stage NSCLC patients. This study included 263 patients with resected NSCLC whose diameter was ≤ 3 cm without node involvement (N0). Demographic, clinical, morphopathological and surgical variables, TNM classification and long-term evolution were analysed. To analyse CI, death by another cause was considered to be competitive event. For the univariate analysis, Gray's method was used, while Fine and Gray's method was employed for the multivariate analysis. Mortality by NSCLC was 19.4% at 5 years and 14.3% by another cause. Both curves crossed at 6.3 years, and probability of death by another cause became greater from this point. In multivariate analysis, cancer mortality was conditioned by visceral pleural invasion (VPI) (P=.001) and vascular invasion (P=.020), with age>50 years (P=.034), smoking (P=.009) and the Charlson index ≥ 2 (P=.000) being by no cancer. By the method of CI, VPI and vascular invasion conditioned cancer death in NSCLC >3 cm, while non-tumor causes of long-term death were determined. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  18. Risk

    PubMed Central

    Cole, Stephen R.; Hudgens, Michael G.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Westreich, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

  19. Core Competency Modification. A Manual for Working with At-Risk/Special Needs Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Loess Hills Area Education Agency 13, Council Bluffs, IA.

    This manual assists teachers in providing adaptations for disabled and disadvantaged students to ensure their success in the regular vocational classroom and to meet requirements of the new vocational education standards in Iowa, which call for a competency-based curriculum. Introductory pages include strategies for teaching special needs…

  20. Instructional Climates in Preschool Children Who Are At-Risk. Part II: Perceived Physical Competence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Robinson, Leah E.; Rudisill, Mary E.; Goodway, Jacqueline D.

    2009-01-01

    In Part II of this study, we examined the effect of two 9-week instructional climates (low-autonomy [LA] and mastery motivational climate [MMC]) on perceived physical competence (PPC) in preschoolers (N = 117). Participants were randomly assigned to an LA, MMC, or comparison group. PPC was assessed by a pretest, posttest, and retention test with…

  1. Core Competency Modification. A Manual for Working with At-Risk/Special Needs Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Loess Hills Area Education Agency 13, Council Bluffs, IA.

    This manual assists teachers in providing adaptations for disabled and disadvantaged students to ensure their success in the regular vocational classroom and to meet requirements of the new vocational education standards in Iowa, which call for a competency-based curriculum. Introductory pages include strategies for teaching special needs…

  2. Risk and Protective Factors for Children of Adolescents: Maternal Depression and Parental Sense of Competence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knoche, Lisa L.; Givens, Jami E.; Sheridan, Susan M.

    2007-01-01

    We investigated the relationship between depression and parental sense of competence to child cognitive outcomes for a sample of 49 adolescent mothers and their young children ("Mean age" = 9 1/2 months) enrolled in a student parenting program. Cognitive development of the infants and toddlers was assessed using the Bayley Scales of Infant…

  3. Instructional Climates in Preschool Children Who Are At-Risk. Part II: Perceived Physical Competence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Robinson, Leah E.; Rudisill, Mary E.; Goodway, Jacqueline D.

    2009-01-01

    In Part II of this study, we examined the effect of two 9-week instructional climates (low-autonomy [LA] and mastery motivational climate [MMC]) on perceived physical competence (PPC) in preschoolers (N = 117). Participants were randomly assigned to an LA, MMC, or comparison group. PPC was assessed by a pretest, posttest, and retention test with…

  4. Type 2 diabetes, adiposity and cancer morbidity and mortality risk taking into account competing risk of noncancer deaths in a prospective cohort setting.

    PubMed

    Drake, Isabel; Gullberg, Bo; Sonestedt, Emily; Stocks, Tanja; Bjartell, Anders; Wirfält, Elisabet; Wallström, Peter; Orho-Melander, Marju

    2017-09-15

    Type 2 diabetes (T2D) and adiposity associate with increased risk of several cancers, but the impact of competing risk of noncancer deaths on these associations is not known. We prospectively examined participants in the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study aged 44-73 years with no history of cancer at baseline (n = 26,953, 43% men). T2D was ascertained at baseline and during follow-up, and body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) at baseline. Multivariable cause-specific hazard ratios (HR) and subdistribution hazard ratios (sHR), taking into account noncancer deaths, were estimated using Cox- and competing risk regression. During follow-up (mean 17 years), 7,061 incident cancers (3,220 obesity-related cancer types) and 2,848 cancer deaths occurred. BMI and WC were associated with increased risk of obesity-related cancer incidence and cancer mortality. In T2D subjects, risk of obesity-related cancer was elevated among men (HR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.12-1.54; sHR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.10-1.52), and cancer mortality among both men and women (HR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.20-1.49; sHR = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.16-1.45). There was no elevated actual risk of cancer death in T2D patients with long disease duration (sHR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.83-1.20). There was a significant additive effect of T2D and adiposity on risk of obesity-related cancer and cancer mortality. In conclusion, detection bias may partially explain the increased risk of cancer morbidity among T2D patients. Both excess risk of competing events among patients with T2D and depletion of susceptibles due to earlier cancer detection will lower the actual risk of cancer, particularly with longer diabetes duration and at older ages. © 2017 The Authors International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.

  5. Conditional Survival Analysis of Patients With Locally Advanced Laryngeal Cancer: Construction of a Dynamic Risk Model and Clinical Nomogram

    PubMed Central

    Sheu, Tommy; Vock, David M.; Mohamed, Abdallah S. R.; Gross, Neil; Mulcahy, Collin; Zafereo, Mark; Gunn, G. Brandon; Garden, Adam S.; Sevak, Parag; Phan, Jack; Lewin, Jan S.; Frank, Steven J.; Beadle, Beth M.; Morrison, William H.; Lai, Stephen Y.; Hutcheson, Katherine; Marai, G. Elisabeta; Canahuate, Guadalupe M.; Kies, Merrill; El-Naggar, Adel; Weber, Randal S.; Rosenthal, David I.; Fuller, Clifton D.

    2017-01-01

    Conditional survival (CS), the survival beyond a pre-defined time interval, can identify periods of higher mortality risk for patients with locally advanced laryngeal cancer who face treatment-related toxicity and comorbidities related to alcohol and smoking in the survivorship setting. Using Weibull regression modeling, we analyzed retrospectively abstracted data from 638 records of patients who received radiation to identify prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and recurrence free survival (RFS) for the first 3 years of survival and for OS conditional upon 3 years of survival. The CS was iteratively calculated, stratifying on variables that were statistically significant on multivariate regression. Predictive nomograms were generated. The median total follow up time was 175 months. The 3- and 6- year actuarial overall survival (OS) was 68% (95% confidence interval [CI] 65–72%) and 49% (CI 45–53%). The 3-year conditional overall survival (COS) at 3 years was 72% (CI 65–74%). Black patients had worse COS over time. Nodal disease was significantly associated with recurrence, but after 3 years, the 3-year conditional RFS converged for all nodal groups. In conclusion, the CS analysis in this patient cohort identified subgroups and time intervals that may represent opportunities for intervention. PMID:28276466

  6. Risk communication as a core public health competence in infectious disease management: Development of the ECDC training curriculum and programme.

    PubMed

    Dickmann, Petra; Abraham, Thomas; Sarkar, Satyajit; Wysocki, Piotr; Cecconi, Sabrina; Apfel, Franklin; Nurm, Ülla-Karin

    2016-01-01

    Risk communication has been identified as a core competence for guiding public health responses to infectious disease threats. The International Health Regulations (2005) call for all countries to build capacity and a comprehensive understanding of health risks before a public health emergency to allow systematic and coherent communication, response and management. Research studies indicate that while outbreak and crisis communication concepts and tools have long been on the agenda of public health officials, there is still a need to clarify and integrate risk communication concepts into more standardised practices and improve risk communication and health, particularly among disadvantaged populations. To address these challenges, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) convened a group of risk communication experts to review and integrate existing approaches and emerging concepts in the development of a training curriculum. This curriculum articulates a new approach in risk communication moving beyond information conveyance to knowledge- and relationship-building. In a pilot training this approach was reflected both in the topics addressed and in the methods applied. This article introduces the new conceptual approach to risk communication capacity building that emerged from this process, presents the pilot training approach developed, and shares the results of the course evaluation.

  7. Communication Competencies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boileau, Don M.

    Aware of the societal problems stemming from a lack of communication skills, the American public is pressing for instruction in speaking and listening in the schools. This response is reflected in the speaking and listening competency recommendations in many national reform reports. Such reports include "A Nation at Risk" by the National…

  8. Effect of PSCA gene polymorphisms on gastric cancer risk and survival prediction: A meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    ZHANG, TAO; CHEN, YUAN-NENG; WANG, ZHEN; CHEN, JUN-QIANG; HUANG, SHI

    2012-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that two single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in PSCA (rs2976392 and rs2294008) are associated with gastric cancer (GC), but the results are conflicting. Additionally, the prognostic value of PSCA gene polymorphisms for GC patients is unknown. We performed a meta-analysis using 9 eligible case-control studies to investigate the association between PSCA polymorphisms and GC risk, and additionally investigated the prognostic value of PSCA polymorphisms for GC patients with two eligible studies. The association was measured using random-effect or fixed-effect odds ratios (ORs) combined with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) according to the heterogeneity of the studies. We found that rs2294008 (dominant model: OR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.16–1.79) and rs2976392 (dominant model: OR, 1.41; 95% CI, 0.98–2.04) polymorphisms were associated with increased risk of GC, although the association of rs2976392 was not statistically significant. For rs2294008, the associations were all consistently significant among the different subgroups stratified by ethnicity and tumor location, but not significant in intestinal or diffuse subtypes. For rs2976392, the associations were consistently significant for the intestinal, diffuse and non-cardia subtypes, but not significant for the cardia subtype. Furthermore, two eligible studies reported inverse results of PCSA in predicting the survival of GC patients (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.59–0.96; and HR, 2.12; 95% CI, 1.22–3.69, respectively). In conclusion, PSCA gene polymorphisms are associated with increased risk of GC and are correlated with the prognosis of GC patients. Future studies are required to evaluate the molecular mechanisms of PSCA polymorphisms in GC and validate the prognostic value in a larger number of patients. PMID:23060941

  9. Association of the ABCG2 C421A polymorphism with prostate cancer risk and survival

    PubMed Central

    Gardner, Erin R.; Ahlers, Christoph M.; Shukla, Suneet; Sissung, Tristan M.; Ockers, Sandra B.; Price, Douglas K.; Hamada, Akinobu; Robey, Robert W.; Steinberg, Seth M.; Ambudkar, Suresh V.; Dahut, William L.; Figg, William D.

    2009-01-01

    Objective To determine if the C421A single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the ATP-binding cassette transporter ABCG2 increases prostate cancer risk or affects survival. Patients, subjects and methods Numerous studies have suggested that dietary, hormonal and environmental factors all play a role in the initiation in prostate cancer; among these, the carcinogenic heterocyclic amine 2-amino-1-methyl-6-phenylimidazo[4,5-b]pyridine (PhIP), a known substrate of the ABCG2. A SNP of ABCG2, C421A, resulting in a glutamine to lysine change at amino acid 141, has been shown to result in decreased function of the protein. Due to the expression of ABCG2 in the prostate, together with the purported role of dietary carcinogens and steroids in the development and progression of prostate cancer, 311 individuals were genotyped for the ABCG2 C421A SNP, 170 patients with androgen-independent prostate cancer (AIPC) and 141 ‘healthy’ controls. We also evaluated the effect of this SNP on the intracellular accumulation of PhIP and testosterone in vitro. Results There were no significant differences in the prevalence of prostate cancer based on ABCG2 genetic variation in this population. However, survival was significantly longer for individuals with wild-type ABCG2, as compared with those hetero- or homozygous for the C421A SNP (7.4 years vs 5.3 years, P = 0.044). Conclusion Intracellular accumulation of PhIP was 80% higher in HEK293 cells transfected with Q141K ABCG2 than in wild-type cells, confirming that this SNP decreases transport of PhIP. In contrast, testosterone was not transported by either wild-type or variant transfected cells, nor did it act as in inhibitor of ABCG2 in subsequent transport assays. PMID:18710444

  10. Comparison of methods for estimating the attributable risk in the context of survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Gassama, Malamine; Bénichou, Jacques; Dartois, Laureen; Thiébaut, Anne C M

    2017-01-23

    The attributable risk (AR) measures the proportion of disease cases that can be attributed to an exposure in the population. Several definitions and estimation methods have been proposed for survival data. Using simulations, we compared four methods for estimating AR defined in terms of survival functions: two nonparametric methods based on Kaplan-Meier's estimator, one semiparametric based on Cox's model, and one parametric based on the piecewise constant hazards model, as well as one simpler method based on estimated exposure prevalence at baseline and Cox's model hazard ratio. We considered a fixed binary exposure with varying exposure probabilities and strengths of association, and generated event times from a proportional hazards model with constant or monotonic (decreasing or increasing) Weibull baseline hazard, as well as from a nonproportional hazards model. We simulated 1,000 independent samples of size 1,000 or 10,000. The methods were compared in terms of mean bias, mean estimated standard error, empirical standard deviation and 95% confidence interval coverage probability at four equally spaced time points. Under proportional hazards, all five methods yielded unbiased results regardless of sample size. Nonparametric methods displayed greater variability than other approaches. All methods showed satisfactory coverage except for nonparametric methods at the end of follow-up for a sample size of 1,000 especially. With nonproportional hazards, nonparametric methods yielded similar results to those under proportional hazards, whereas semiparametric and parametric approaches that both relied on the proportional hazards assumption performed poorly. These methods were applied to estimate the AR of breast cancer due to menopausal hormone therapy in 38,359 women of the E3N cohort. In practice, our study suggests to use the semiparametric or parametric approaches to estimate AR as a function of time in cohort studies if the proportional hazards assumption appears

  11. Risk Factors Associated with Distant Metastasis and Survival Outcomes in Breast Cancer Patients with Locoregional Recurrence

    PubMed Central

    Park, Soojin; Kim, Jongjin; Kim, Min Kyoon; Lee, Eunshin; Yoo, Tae-Kyung; Lee, Han-Byoel; Kang, Young Joon; Kim, Yun-Gyoung; Moon, Hyeong-Gon; Noh, Dong-Young

    2015-01-01

    Purpose To decide the optimal treatment for breast cancer patients with locoregional recurrence (LRR), it is important to determine which group has the highest risk of subsequent distant metastasis (DM). We aimed to investigate the factors associated with DM in patients with LRR. Methods We reviewed the data of 208 patients with LRR as the first event after primary surgery for breast cancer at our institution between 1997 and 2010, to identify significant factors associated with DM. Subsequently, Kaplan-Meier curves and the Cox regression method were used to analyze the correlation between clinical factors and survival. Results DM occurred in 33.2% (68/208) of LRR patients. The median DM-free interval was 23 months. Some clinical factors were associated with DM in univariate analysis, including the type of primary surgery (p=0.026), tumor size (p=0.005), nodal status (p=0.011), and administration of initial adjuvant chemotherapy (p=0.001). In addition, regional rather than local recurrence and a disease-free interval (DFI; duration between primary surgery and LRR) ≤30 months were also significant (p<0.001 for both). However, only a shorter DFI reached significance in multiple logistic regression analysis. Cox regression analysis of DM-free survival showed that both a shorter DFI and regional recurrence were significant factors with hazard ratios of 2.1 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21-3.65) and 1.85 (95% CI, 1.04-3.28), respectively. Conclusion DFI was the most important factor associated with subsequent DM in patients with LRR as a first event of failure. PMID:26155292

  12. A Competence-Based Science Learning Framework Illustrated Through the Study of Natural Hazards and Disaster Risk Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oyao, Sheila G.; Holbrook, Jack; Rannikmäe, Miia; Pagunsan, Marmon M.

    2015-09-01

    This article proposes a competence-based learning framework for science teaching, applied to the study of 'big ideas', in this case to the study of natural hazards and disaster risk reduction (NH&DRR). The framework focuses on new visions of competence, placing emphasis on nurturing connectedness and behavioral actions toward resilience and sustainability. The framework draws together competences familiarly expressed as cognitive knowledge and skills, plus dispositions and adds connectedness and action-related behaviors, and applies this by means of a progression shift associated with NH&DRR from abilities to capabilities. The target is enhanced scientific literacy approached through an education through science focus, amplified through the study of a big idea, promotion of sustained resilience in the face of disaster and the taking of responsibilities for behavioral actions. The framework is applied to a learning progression for each interrelated education dimension, thus serving as a guide for both the development of abilities and as a platform for stimulating student capabilities within instruction and assessment.

  13. Mixed-effects varying-coefficient model with skewed distribution coupled with cause-specific varying-coefficient hazard model with random-effects for longitudinal-competing risks data analysis.

    PubMed

    Lu, Tao; Wang, Min; Liu, Guangying; Dong, Guang-Hui; Qian, Feng

    2016-01-01

    It is well known that there is strong relationship between HIV viral load and CD4 cell counts in AIDS studies. However, the relationship between them changes during the course of treatment and may vary among individuals. During treatments, some individuals may experience terminal events such as death. Because the terminal event may be related to the individual's viral load measurements, the terminal mechanism is non-ignorable. Furthermore, there exists competing risks from multiple types of events, such as AIDS-related death and other death. Most joint models for the analysis of longitudinal-survival data developed in literatures have focused on constant coefficients and assume symmetric distribution for the endpoints, which does not meet the needs for investigating the nature of varying relationship between HIV viral load and CD4 cell counts in practice. We develop a mixed-effects varying-coefficient model with skewed distribution coupled with cause-specific varying-coefficient hazard model with random-effects to deal with varying relationship between the two endpoints for longitudinal-competing risks survival data. A fully Bayesian inference procedure is established to estimate parameters in the joint model. The proposed method is applied to a multicenter AIDS cohort study. Various scenarios-based potential models that account for partial data features are compared. Some interesting findings are presented.

  14. Improved overall survival with adjuvant radiotherapy for high-intermediate and high risk Stage I endometrial cancer.

    PubMed

    Harkenrider, Matthew M; Adams, William; Block, Alec M; Kliethermes, Stephanie; Small, William; Grover, Surbhi

    2017-03-01

    To perform a large analysis of Stage I endometrioid-type endometrial cancer patients to determine the impact of adjuvant radiotherapy (ART) on survival. 132,976 FIGO Stage I endometrioid-type endometrial cancer patients treated surgically were identified within the National Cancer Database (NCDB) comprising Commission on Cancer facilities in the United States. Patients were categorized as observation (OBS) or ART (vaginal brachytherapy, external beam radiotherapy, or both). Univariable generalized linear mixed effects models were used to estimate the odds of receiving ART, and a multivariable frailty survival model was used to estimate the instantaneous hazard of death for those receiving OBS versus ART. Due to the presence of a significant interaction, these estimates were stratified by PORTEC-based low, low-intermediate, high-intermediate, and high risk groups. 104,645 (79%) underwent OBS while 28,331 (21%) received ART. Of those receiving ART, 12,913 (46%) received VBT alone, 12,857 (45%) received EBRT alone, and 2561 (9%) received EBRT+VBT. On univariable analysis, increasing stage/myometrial invasion, higher grade, older age, presence of lymphovascular space invasion, and larger tumor size predicted poorer survival (all p<0.01). On multivariable analysis, patients at high-intermediate risk and high risk experienced improved survival with ART with a hazard ratio of 0.796 (95% CI: 0.731-0.867; p<0.001) and 0.783 (95% CI: 0.693-0.885; p<0.001), respectively. There was no survival benefit for ART among patients at low or low-intermediate risk. In Stage I high-intermediate and high risk endometrioid-type endometrial cancer patients, ART significantly improves overall survival. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Genetic profiling to determine risk of relapse-free survival in high-risk localized prostate cancer.

    PubMed

    Barnett, Christine M; Heinrich, Michael C; Lim, Jeong; Nelson, Dylan; Beadling, Carol; Warrick, Andrea; Neff, Tanaya; Higano, Celestia S; Garzotto, Mark; Qian, David; Corless, Christopher L; Thomas, George V; Beer, Tomasz M

    2014-03-01

    The characterization of actionable mutations in human tumors is a prerequisite for the development of individualized, targeted therapy. We examined the prevalence of potentially therapeutically actionable mutations in patients with high-risk clinically localized prostate cancer. Forty-eight samples of formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded prostatectomy tissue from a neoadjuvant chemotherapy trial were analyzed. DNA extracted from microdissected tumor was analyzed for 643 common solid tumor mutations in 53 genes using mass spectroscopy-based sequencing. In addition, PTEN loss and erythroblast transformation-specific-related gene (ERC) translocations were examined using immunohistochemistry (IHC) in associated tissue microarrays. Association with relapse during 5 years of follow-up was examined in exploratory analyses of the potential clinical relevance of the genetic alterations. Of the 40 tumors evaluable for mutations, 10% had point mutations in potentially actionable cancer genes. Of the 47 tumors evaluable for IHC, 36% had PTEN loss and 40% had ERG rearrangement. Individual mutations were not frequent enough to determine associations with relapse. Using Kaplan-Meier analysis with a log-rank test, the 16 patients who had PTEN loss had a significantly shorter median relapse-free survival, 19 versus 106 months (P = 0.01). This study confirms that point mutations in the most common cancer regulatory genes in prostate cancer are rare. However, the PIK3CA/AKT pathway was mutated in 10% of our samples. Although point mutations alone did not have a statistically significant association with relapse, PTEN loss was associated with an increased relapse in high-risk prostate cancer treated with chemotherapy followed by surgery. ©2013 AACR

  16. Slow Gait Speed and Risk of Long-Term Nursing Home Residence in Older Women, Adjusting for Competing Risk of Mortality: Results from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures.

    PubMed

    Lyons, Jennifer G; Ensrud, Kristine E; Schousboe, John T; McCulloch, Charles E; Taylor, Brent C; Heeren, Timothy C; Stuver, Sherri O; Fredman, Lisa

    2016-12-01

    To determine whether slow gait speed increases the risk of costly long-term nursing home residence when accounting for death as a competing risk remains unknown. Longitudinal cohort study using proportional hazards models to predict long-term nursing home residence and subdistribution models with death as a competing risk. Community-based prospective cohort study. Older women (mean age 76.3) participating in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures who were also enrolled in Medicare fee-for-service plans (N = 3,755). Gait speed was measured on a straight 6-m course and averaged over two trials. Long-term nursing home residence was defined using a validated algorithm based on Medicare Part B claims for nursing home-related care. Participants were followed until long-term nursing home residence, disenrollment from Medicare plan, death, or December 31, 2010. Over the follow-up period (median 11 years), 881 participants (23%) experienced long-term nursing home residence, and 1,013 (27%) died before experiencing this outcome. Slow walkers (55% of participants with gait speed <1 m/s) were significantly more likely than fast walkers to reside in a nursing home long-term (adjusted hazards ratio (aHR) = 1.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.54-2.09). Associations were attenuated in subdistribution models (aHR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.30-1.77) but remained statistically significant. Older community-dwelling women with slow gait speed are more likely to experience long-term nursing home residence, as well as mortality without long-term residence. Ignoring the competing mortality risk may overestimate long-term care needs and costs. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

  17. Competing Risk Approach (CRA) for Estimation of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY’s) for Female Breast Cancer in India

    PubMed Central

    Thirthahalli, Chethana; Nooyi, Shalini Chandrashekar; Shivaraj, NS; Murthy, Nandagudi Srinivasa

    2015-01-01

    Background Competing Risk Approach (CRA) has been used to compute burden of disease in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) based on a life table for an initially disease-free cohort over time. Objective To compute Years of Life Lost (YLL) due to premature mortality, Years of life lost due to Disability (YLD), DALYs and loss in expectation of life (LEL) using competing risk approach for female breast cancer patients for the year 2008 in India. Materials and Methods The published data on breast cancer by age & sex, incidence & mortality for the year 2006-2008 relating to six population based cancer registries (PBCR) under Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), general mortality rates of 2007 in India, published in national health profile 2010; based on Sample Registration System (SRS) were utilized for computations. Three life tables were constructed by applying attrition of factors: (i) risk of death from all causes (‘a’; where a is the general death rate); (ii) risk of incidence and that of death from causes other than breast cancer (‘b-a+c’; where ‘b’ is the incidence of breast cancer and ‘c’ is the mortality of breast cancer); and (iii) risk of death from all other causes after excluding cancer mortality (‘a-c’). Taking the differences in Total Person Years Lived (TPYL), YLD and YLL were derived along with LEL. Results CRA revealed that the DALYs were 40209 per 100,000 females in the life time of 0-70+ years with a LEL of 0.11 years per person. Percentage of YLL to DALYs was 28.20% in the cohort. Conclusion The method of calculation of DALYs based on the CRA is simple and this will help to identify the burden of diseases using minimal information in terms of YLL, YLD, DALYs and LEL. PMID:26557544

  18. Does adding risk-trends to survival models improve in-hospital mortality predictions? A cohort study

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Clinicians informally assess changes in patients' status over time to prognosticate their outcomes. The incorporation of trends in patient status into regression models could improve their ability to predict outcomes. In this study, we used a unique approach to measure trends in patient hospital death risk and determined whether the incorporation of these trend measures into a survival model improved the accuracy of its risk predictions. Methods We included all adult inpatient hospitalizations between 1 April 2004 and 31 March 2009 at our institution. We used the daily mortality risk scores from an existing time-dependent survival model to create five trend indicators: absolute and relative percent change in the risk score from the previous day; absolute and relative percent change in the risk score from the start of the trend; and number of days with a trend in the risk score. In the derivation set, we determined which trend indicators were associated with time to death in hospital, independent of the existing covariates. In the validation set, we compared the predictive performance of the existing model with and without the trend indicators. Results Three trend indicators were independently associated with time to hospital mortality: the absolute change in the risk score from the previous day; the absolute change in the risk score from the start of the trend; and the number of consecutive days with a trend in the risk score. However, adding these trend indicators to the existing model resulted in only small improvements in model discrimination and calibration. Conclusions We produced several indicators of trend in patient risk that were significantly associated with time to hospital death independent of the model used to create them. In other survival models, our approach of incorporating risk trends could be explored to improve their performance without the collection of additional data. PMID:21777460

  19. Impact of genomic risk factors on survival after haematopoietic stem cell transplantation for patients with acute leukaemia.

    PubMed

    Pearce, K F; Balavarca, Y; Norden, J; Jackson, G; Holler, E; Dressel, R; Greinix, H; Toubert, A; Gluckman, E; Hromadnikova, I; Sedlacek, P; Wolff, D; Holtick, U; Bickeböller, H; Dickinson, A M

    2016-12-01

    The EBMT risk score is an established tool successfully used in the prognosis of survival post-HSCT and is applicable for a range of haematological disorders. One of its main advantages is that score generation involves summation of clinical parameters that are available pretransplant. However, the EBMT risk score is recognized as not being optimal. Previous analyses, involving patients with various diagnoses, have shown that non-HLA gene polymorphisms influence outcome after allogeneic HSCT. This study is novel as it focuses only on patients having acute leukaemia (N = 458) and attempts to demonstrate how non-HLA gene polymorphisms can be added to the EBMT risk score in a Cox regression model to improve prognostic ability for overall survival. The results of the study found that three genetic factors improved EBMT risk score. The presence of MAL (rs8177374) allele T in the patient, absence of glucocorticoid receptor haplotype (consisting of rs6198, rs33389 and rs33388) ACT in the patient and absence of heat-shock protein 70-hom (+2437) (rs2227956) allele C in the patient were associated with decreased survival time. When compared to the EBMT risk score, the scores combining EBMT risk score with the genetic factors had an improved correlation with clinical outcome and better separation of risk groups. A bootstrapping technique, involving repeated testing of a model using multiple validation sets, also revealed that the newly proposed model had improved predictive value when compared to the EBMT risk score alone. Results support the view that non-HLA polymorphisms could be useful for pretransplant clinical assessment and provide evidence that polymorphisms in the recipient genotype may influence incoming donor cells, suppressing the initiation of the graft versus leukaemia effect and reducing survival. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Severe nutritional risk predicts decreased long-term survival in geriatric patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy for benign disease.

    PubMed

    Sanford, Dominic E; Sanford, Angela M; Fields, Ryan C; Hawkins, William G; Strasberg, Steven M; Linehan, David C

    2014-12-01

    Weight loss and malnutrition are poorly tolerated by geriatric patients, and pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) can result in chronic malabsorption and weight loss. We sought to determine how preoperative severe nutritional risk (SNR), as defined by the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program/American Geriatric Society Best Practice Guidelines, affects long-term survival after PD for benign disease among geriatric and nongeriatric patients. All patients undergoing PD for nonmalignant conditions at a single center between 1995 and 2013 were followed for survival, excluding patients who died within 90 days of surgery. Survival of geriatric (age ≥65 years) and nongeriatric (age <65 years) patients with and without SNR was compared using Kaplan Meier methods. Cox regression was performed. There were 320 patients who underwent PD for benign disease. Over the course of the study, the proportion of geriatric patients undergoing PD for benign conditions increased from 25% to 46%. In addition to being older, geriatric patients undergoing PD for benign disease were significantly more likely to have coronary artery disease (CAD) and hypertension. Geriatric patients with preoperative SNR had significantly decreased long-term survival after PD for benign disease (p < 0.001), with roughly 1 in 3 patients dead at 5 years compared with 1 in 14 patients without SNR. Survival was not significantly different among nongeriatric patients with and without SNR. In geriatric patients, age, CAD, and SNR were significantly associated with decreased survival on both univariate and multivariate analysis. Severe nutritional risk can be a useful predictor of long-term survival in geriatric patients undergoing PD, and could improve patient risk stratification preoperatively. Nonoperative management should be strongly considered in geriatric patients with SNR, when malignancy is not suspected. Copyright © 2014 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc

  1. Effects of maternal nutrition, resource use and multi-predator risk on neonatal white-tailed deer survival.

    PubMed

    Duquette, Jared F; Belant, Jerrold L; Svoboda, Nathan J; Beyer, Dean E; Lederle, Patrick E

    2014-01-01

    Growth of ungulate populations is typically most sensitive to survival of neonates, which in turn is influenced by maternal nutritional condition and trade-offs in resource selection and avoidance of predators. We assessed whether resource use, multi-predator risk, maternal nutritional effects, hiding cover, or interactions among these variables best explained variation in daily survival of free-ranging neonatal white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) during their post-partum period (14 May-31 Aug) in Michigan, USA. We used Cox proportional hazards mixed-effects models to assess survival related to covariates of resource use, composite predation risk of 4 mammalian predators, fawn body mass at birth, winter weather, and vegetation growth phenology. Predation, particularly from coyotes (Canis latrans), was the leading cause of mortality; however, an additive model of non-ideal resource use and maternal nutritional effects explained 71% of the variation in survival. This relationship suggested that dams selected areas where fawns had poor resources, while greater predation in these areas led to additive mortalities beyond those related to resource use alone. Also, maternal nutritional effects suggested that severe winters resulted in dams producing smaller fawns, which decreased their likelihood of survival. Fawn resource use appeared to reflect dam avoidance of lowland forests with poor forage and greater use by wolves (C. lupus), their primary predator. While this strategy led to greater fawn mortality, particularly by coyotes, it likely promoted the life-long reproductive success of dams because many reached late-age (>10 years old) and could have produced multiple generations of fawns. Studies often link resource selection and survival of ungulates, but our results suggested that multiple factors can mediate that relationship, including multi-predator risk. We emphasize the importance of identifying interactions among biological and environmental factors when

  2. Effects of Maternal Nutrition, Resource Use and Multi-Predator Risk on Neonatal White-Tailed Deer Survival

    PubMed Central

    Duquette, Jared F.; Belant, Jerrold L.; Svoboda, Nathan J.; Beyer, Dean E.; Lederle, Patrick E.

    2014-01-01

    Growth of ungulate populations is typically most sensitive to survival of neonates, which in turn is influenced by maternal nutritional condition and trade-offs in resource selection and avoidance of predators. We assessed whether resource use, multi-predator risk, maternal nutritional effects, hiding cover, or interactions among these variables best explained variation in daily survival of free-ranging neonatal white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) during their post-partum period (14 May–31 Aug) in Michigan, USA. We used Cox proportional hazards mixed-effects models to assess survival related to covariates of resource use, composite predation risk of 4 mammalian predators, fawn body mass at birth, winter weather, and vegetation growth phenology. Predation, particularly from coyotes (Canis latrans), was the leading cause of mortality; however, an additive model of non-ideal resource use and maternal nutritional effects explained 71% of the variation in survival. This relationship suggested that dams selected areas where fawns had poor resources, while greater predation in these areas led to additive mortalities beyond those related to resource use alone. Also, maternal nutritional effects suggested that severe winters resulted in dams producing smaller fawns, which decreased their likelihood of survival. Fawn resource use appeared to reflect dam avoidance of lowland forests with poor forage and greater use by wolves (C. lupus), their primary predator. While this strategy led to greater fawn mortality, particularly by coyotes, it likely promoted the life-long reproductive success of dams because many reached late-age (>10 years old) and could have produced multiple generations of fawns. Studies often link resource selection and survival of ungulates, but our results suggested that multiple factors can mediate that relationship, including multi-predator risk. We emphasize the importance of identifying interactions among biological and environmental factors

  3. Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms and Cancer Risk, Tumor Recurrence, or Survival of Head and Neck Cancer Patients.

    PubMed

    Laytragoon-Lewin, Nongnit; Cederblad, Lena; Andersson, Bengt-Åke; Olin, Mattias; Nilsson, Mats; Rutqvist, Lars Erik; Lundgren, Jan; Engström, Mats; Tytor, Wieslaw; Löfgren, Sture; Lewin, Freddi

    2017-01-01

    This paper aims at studying the influence of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on cancer risk, tumor recurrence, and survival in head and neck (H&N) cancer patients. A total of 45 SNPs in 41 genes were investigated. A total of 174 Caucasian H&N cancer patients and 245 healthy blood donors were enrolled in the study. Ten SNPs were associated with H&N cancer risk, but the identified SNPs differed among males and females. Some of the SNPs were related to immune response genes. The immune response gene SNPs were also related to survival. In particular, we noted that the tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα) rs1800629 could have an influence on cancer risk, tumor recurrence as well as survival. Genetic variation of the TNFα rs1800629 might be useful as a biomarker in clinical decision-making since it was found to be related to cancer risk, tumor recurrence, and survival of H&N cancer patients. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  4. Conceptualizing and Re-Evaluating Resilience across Levels of Risk, Time, and Domains of Competence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vanderbilt-Adriance, Ella; Shaw, Daniel S.

    2008-01-01

    This article examines potential theoretical constraints on resilience across levels of risk, time, and domain of outcome. Studies of resilience are reviewed as they relate to the prevalence of resilience across levels of risk (e.g., single life events vs. cumulative risk), time, and domains of adjustment. Based on a thorough review of pertinent…

  5. Risks, dangers and competing clinical decisions on venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in hospital care.

    PubMed

    Boiko, Olga; Sheaff, Rod; Child, Susan; Gericke, Christian A

    2014-07-01

    Drawing on wider sociologies of risk, this article examines the complexity of clinical risks and their management, focusing on risk management systems, expert decision-making and safety standards in health care. At the time of this study preventing venous thromboembolism (VTE) among in-patients was one of the top priorities for hospital safety in the English National Health Service (NHS). An analysis of 50 interviews examining hospital professionals' perceptions about VTE risks and prophylaxis illuminates how National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines influenced clinical decision-making in four hospitals in one NHS region. We examine four themes: the identification of new risks, the institutionalisation and management of risk, the relationship between risk and danger and the tensions between risk management systems and expert decision-making. The implementation of NICE guidelines for VTE prevention extended managerial control over risk management but some irreducible clinical dangers remained that were beyond the scope of the new VTE risk management systems. Linking sociologies of risk with the realities of hospital risk management reveals the capacity of these theories to illuminate both the possibilities and the limits of managerialism in health care. © 2014 The Authors. Sociology of Health & Illness © 2014 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness/John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. The role of verbal competence and multiple risk on the internalizing behavior problems of Costa Rican youth.

    PubMed

    Corapci, Feyza; Smith, Julia; Lozoff, Betsy

    2006-12-01

    This longitudinal study examined internalizing behavior problems (anxiety/depression) in early adolescence in relation to adversity in early childhood and child verbal competence. We hypothesized that verbal competence would act as a protective factor in the face of early adversity, that is, high verbal IQ would predict relatively lower internalizing problems in early adolescence primarily for those children who experienced the greatest adversity. The sample was based on 191 Costa Rican children and their mothers, who were recruited in infancy from an urban community and assessed again at 5 and 11-14 years. Families were generally lower-middle to working class. A total of 165 children (94 boys) participated in the early adolescent follow-up (mean age = 12.3 years). Internalizing problems were based on maternal report (Spanish Child Behavior Checklist). Our cumulative risk index (CRI)_of adversity in early childhood consisted of home environment quality (HOME score), socioeconomic status, maternal depressed mood (CESD), and maternal IQ. Controlling for the effects of age, gender, internalizing problems at 5 years, and verbal IQ at 5 years, there was a significant interaction between early adversity and verbal IQ at age 11-14 years in predicting internalizing problems in early adolescence. Youth with high verbal IQ had comparable levels of internalizing problems regardless of high or low adversity in early childhood. In contrast, youth with low verbal IQ received higher internalizing problem ratings if they experienced high adversity early in life. The results raise the possibility that interventions to improve verbal competence might help lower the risk of internalizing problems in the face of early adversity.

  7. Successful survival, growth, and reproductive potential of quagga mussels in low calcium lake water: is there uncertainty of establishment risk?

    PubMed Central

    Ruhmann, Emma K.; Acharya, Kumud; Chandra, Sudeep; Jerde, Christopher L.

    2015-01-01

    The risk of quagga mussel (Dreissena rostriformis bugensis Andrusov 1897) establishment into water-bodies of the western US has expanded the geographic concern regarding the ecological and economic impacts this species will have in aquatic ecosystems. Thresholds based on calcium concentrations, an element critical for mussel growth and physiology, have been used as a primary predictor of quagga mussel establishment success to aid management decisions. We evaluated the invasion potential of quagga mussels in low calcium waters using laboratory experiments to compare the survival, growth and reproductive potential of adult mussels held for 90 days at low (9 and 12 ppm), moderate (15 to 32 ppm) and high (72 ppm) calcium water concentrations. In conjunction with adult experiments, veliger stage survival, growth and settlement were evaluated under similar low, moderate, and high calcium water treatments. Adult mussels survived, grew and showed reproductive potential in low calcium water (12 ppm). Veligers were also able to survive, grow and settle in low calcium water. Higher levels of natural seston biomass appeared to improve adult mussel life history performance in low calcium water. Survival curve analysis predicted that 99% adult mortality could occur in <170 days at 9 ppm and 12 ppm, however water with >15 ppm could have adults surviving more than a year. The results from these bioassays provide further evidence that quagga mussels have higher risk of establishment in low calcium lakes if habitats exist that have slightly elevated calcium. These results should help emphasize the vulnerability of water-body in the 12 to 15 ppm calcium range that could potentially be at risk of establishing sustainable quagga mussel populations. Furthermore, these results provide insights into the uncertainty of using a single parameter in assigning establishment risk given the complexity of variables in specific water-bodies that influence life history performance of introduced

  8. Competing-risks regression models in analysis of biomarkers as predictors of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infection outcomes and incident CIN in the LAMS cohort.

    PubMed

    Syrjänen, Stina; Longhato-Filho, Adhemar; Sarian, Luis O; Naud, Paulo; Derchain, Sophie; Rottelli-Martins, Cecilia; Tatti, Silvio; Branca, Margherita; Eržen, Mojca; Hammes, Luciano S; Matos, Jean; Gontijo, Renata; Bragança, Joana; Arlindo, Francisco C; Maeda, Mariana Y S; Costa, Silvano; Syrjänen, Kari

    2013-07-01

    To assess the prediction potential of a 5-biomarker panel for detecting high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) infections and/or cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) progression. Five biomarkers, lipocalin, plasminogen activator inhibitor-2, p300, interleukin-10, and stratifin, were assessed in cervical biopsies from 225 women of the Latin American Screening Study. Competing-risks regression models were constructed to assess their predictive power for (i) HR-HPV outcomes (negative, transient, or persistent infection) and (ii) CIN outcomes (no progression, incident CIN1, CIN2, or CIN3). p300, LCN2, stratifin were significantly associated with prevalent HR-HPV but lost their significance in multivariate analysis. In the multivariate model, only p300 was an independent predictor of CIN3 (odds ratio=2.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-6.61; P=0.039). In univariate competing-risks regression, lipocalin predicted permanent HR-HPV-negative status, but in the multivariate model, IL-10 emerged as a independent predictor of HPV-negative status (subhazard ratio=4.04; 95% confidence interval, 1.81-9.01; P=0.001). The clinical value of the panel in predicting longitudinal outcomes of HR-HPV infection and/or incident CIN is limited.

  9. Influence of obesity and other risk factors on survival outcomes in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer.

    PubMed

    Dandona, Monica; Linehan, David; Hawkins, William; Strasberg, Steven; Gao, Feng; Wang-Gillam, Andrea

    2011-08-01

    Established risk factors for the development of pancreatic cancer include tobacco use, family history of pancreatic cancer, personal history of diabetes, and obesity. The impact of risk factors on prognosis in patients with pancreatic cancer, particularly obesity, has recently become controversial. We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy between 1995 and 2009. Patients were categorized by body mass index (BMI) as normal (18.5-24.9 kg/m), overweight (25-29.9 kg/m), or obese (≥30 kg/m). Univariate analysis was performed to evaluate the association of obesity and other risk factors on overall survival. Of the 355 patients evaluated, 149 (42.0%) had normal BMI, 131 (36.9%) were overweight, and 75 (21.1%) were obese. Overall survival for normal, overweight, and obese groups was 17.3 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 14.2-20.8 months), 20.0 months (95% CI, 16.6-23.6 months), and 22.1 months (95% CI, 16.5-36.4 months), respectively (P = 0.58). Hazard ratios for tobacco use, family history of pancreatic cancer, and history of diabetes were 1.07, 1.38, and 0.87, respectively. Obesity and other risk factors have no impact on overall survival in patients with adenocarcinoma after pancreaticoduodenectomy. Further studies investigating the relationship between risk factors and their prognostic significance in patients with pancreatic cancer are warranted.

  10. Influence of an elevated nutrition risk score (NRS) on survival in patients following gastrectomy for gastric cancer.

    PubMed

    Bachmann, J; Müller, T; Schröder, A; Riediger, C; Feith, M; Reim, D; Friess, H; Martignoni, M E

    2015-07-01

    In the last years, the impact of weight loss in patients with malignant tumors has come more and more into the focus of clinical research, as the occurrence of weight loss is often associated with a reduced survival. Weight loss can be a hint for metastases in patients suffering from malignant tumors; furthermore, these patients are usually not able to be treated with chemotherapy. The aim of the study was to show the influence of weight loss and an elevated nutrition risk score on survival following tumor resection in patients suffering from gastric cancer. In 99 patients in whom a gastrectomy due to gastric cancer was performed, the nutrition risk score was calculated and its influence on mortality, morbidity and survival was analyzed. Of the included patients, 45 % of the patients gave a history of weight loss; they had significantly more often a NRS ≥ 3. In UICC stage 1a/b, a NRS ≥ 3 was associated with a significantly reduced survival compared to patients with a NRS < 3. In early tumor stages (UICC 1a/b), a NRS ≥ 3 was associated with a significantly reduced survival, while in progressed tumor stage, the influence of a poor NRS was not significant. This seems to show that in progressed stages in patients with gastric cancer, the influence of a reduced NRS is negligible.

  11. Ordinary risks and accepted fictions: how contrasting and competing priorities work in risk assessment and mental health care planning.

    PubMed

    Coffey, Michael; Cohen, Rachel; Faulkner, Alison; Hannigan, Ben; Simpson, Alan; Barlow, Sally

    2017-06-01

    Communication and information sharing are considered crucial to recovery-focused mental health services. Effective mental health care planning and coordination includes assessment and management of risk and safety. Using data from our cross-national mixed-method study of care planning and coordination, we examined what patients, family members and workers say about risk assessment and management and explored the contents of care plans. Thematic analysis of qualitative research interviews (n = 117) with patients, family members and workers, across four English and two Welsh National Health Service sites. Care plans were reviewed (n = 33) using a structured template. Participants have contrasting priorities in relation to risk. Patients see benefit in discussions about risk, but cast the process as a worker priority that may lead to loss of liberty. Relationships with workers are key to family members and patients; however, worker claims of involving people in the care planning process do not extend to risk assessment and management procedures for fear of causing upset. Workers locate risk as coming from the person rather than social or environmental factors, are risk averse and appear to prioritize the procedural aspects of assessment. Despite limitations, risk assessment is treated as legitimate work by professionals. Risk assessment practice operates as a type of fiction in which poor predictive ability and fear of consequences are accepted in the interests of normative certainty by all parties. As a consequence, risk adverse options are encouraged by workers and patients steered away from opportunities for ordinary risks thereby hindering the mobilization of their strengths and abilities. © 2016 The Authors. Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Conceptualizing and Re-Evaluating Resilience Across Levels of Risk, Time, and Domains of Competence

    PubMed Central

    Shaw, Daniel S.

    2009-01-01

    This article examines potential theoretical constraints on resilience across levels of risk, time, and domain of outcome. Studies of resilience are reviewed as they relate to the prevalence of resilience across levels of risk (e.g., single life events vs. cumulative risk), time, and domains of adjustment. Based on a thorough review of pertinent literature, we conclude that resilience, as a global construct, appears to be rare at the highest levels of risk, and that resilience may benefit from a narrower conceptualization focusing on specific outcomes at specific timepoints in development. The implication of this conclusion for future research and intervention efforts is then discussed. PMID:18379875

  13. The Relation Between Adolescent Social Competence and Young Adult Delinquency and Educational Attainment Among At-Risk Youth: The Mediating Role of Peer Delinquency

    PubMed Central

    Stepp, Stephanie D; Pardini, Dustin A; Loeber, Rolf; Morris, Nancy A

    2015-01-01

    Objective We examined trajectories of adolescent social competence as a resilience factor among at-risk youth. To examine potential mechanisms of this resilience process, we investigated the putative mediating effect of peer delinquency on the relation between adolescent social competence and young adult delinquency seriousness and educational attainment. Method Participants (n = 257) were screened to be at risk for antisocial behaviour at age 13 years. Data were derived from an ongoing longitudinal study of the development of antisocial and delinquent behaviour among inner-city boys, the Pittsburgh Youth Study. We used data collected from participants when aged 13 years until they were aged 25.5 years for our study. Results Results indicated that boys with high levels of social competence decreased their involvement with deviant peers throughout adolescence, which, in turn, predicted less serious forms of delinquency in early adulthood. Social competence had a direct effect on educational attainment in early adulthood, as boys who developed social competencies in adolescence went further in school irrespective of their involvement with delinquent peers. Conclusions Results suggest that promoting the development of social competencies and reducing involvement with delinquent peers will protect at-risk youth from engaging in serious delinquency in early adulthood while increasing their educational success. PMID:21878156

  14. Pre-Transplant Cardiovascular Risk Factors Affect Kidney Allograft Survival: A Multi-Center Study in Korea

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Jung Pyo; Bae, Eunjin; Kang, Eunjeong; Kim, Hack-Lyoung; Kim, Yong-Jin; Oh, Yun Kyu; Kim, Yon Su; Kim, Young Hoon; Lim, Chun Soo

    2016-01-01

    Background Pre-transplant cardiovascular (CV) risk factors affect the development of CV events even after successful kidney transplantation (KT). However, the impact of pre-transplant CV risk factors on allograft failure (GF) has not been reported. Methods and Findings We analyzed the graft outcomes of 2,902 KT recipients who were enrolled in a multi-center cohort from 1997 to 2012. We calculated the pre-transplant CV risk scores based on the Framingham risk model using age, gender, total cholesterol level, smoking status, and history of hypertension. Vascular disease (a composite of ischemic heart disease, peripheral vascular disease, and cerebrovascular disease) was noted in 6.5% of the patients. During the median follow-up of 6.4 years, 286 (9.9%) patients had developed GF. In the multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard model, pre-transplant vascular disease was associated with an increased risk of GF (HR 2.51; 95% CI 1.66–3.80). The HR for GF (comparing the highest with the lowest tertile regarding the pre-transplant CV risk scores) was 1.65 (95% CI 1.22–2.23). In the competing risk model, both pre-transplant vascular disease and CV risk score were independent risk factors for GF. Moreover, the addition of the CV risk score, the pre-transplant vascular disease, or both had a better predictability for GF compared to the traditional GF risk factors. Conclusions In conclusion, both vascular disease and pre-transplant CV risk score were independently associated with GF in this multi-center study. Pre-transplant CV risk assessments could be useful in predicting GF in KT recipients. PMID:27501048

  15. Nurturing Cognitive Competence in Preschoolers: A Longitudinal Study of Intergenerational Continuity and Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Saltaris, Christina; Serbin, Lisa A.; Stack, Dale M.; Karp, Jennifer A.; Schwartzman, Alex E.; Ledingham, Jane E.

    2004-01-01

    The current investigation was designed to examine the provision of cognitive stimulation to preschool-aged children from high-risk families. Participants were drawn from the Concordia Longitudinal Risk Project, a prospective, longitudinal investigation of individuals recruited in 1976-77 from lower SES neighbourhoods who were rated by childhood…

  16. Nurturing Cognitive Competence in Preschoolers: A Longitudinal Study of Intergenerational Continuity and Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Saltaris, Christina; Serbin, Lisa A.; Stack, Dale M.; Karp, Jennifer A.; Schwartzman, Alex E.; Ledingham, Jane E.

    2004-01-01

    The current investigation was designed to examine the provision of cognitive stimulation to preschool-aged children from high-risk families. Participants were drawn from the Concordia Longitudinal Risk Project, a prospective, longitudinal investigation of individuals recruited in 1976-77 from lower SES neighbourhoods who were rated by childhood…

  17. Long-term results and competing risk analysis of the H89 trial in patients with advanced-stage Hodgkin lymphoma: a study by the Groupe d'Etude des Lymphomes de l'Adulte (GELA).

    PubMed

    Fermé, Christophe; Mounier, Nicolas; Casasnovas, Olivier; Brice, Pauline; Divine, Marine; Sonet, Anne; Bouafia, Fahdela; Bastard-Stamatoullas, Aspasia; Bordessoule, Dominique; Voillat, Laurent; Reman, Oumedaly; Blanc, Michel; Gisselbrecht, Christian

    2006-06-15

    From 1989 to 1996, 533 eligible patients with stage IIIB/IV Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) were randomly assigned to receive 6 cycles of hybrid MOPP/ABV (mechlorethamine, vincristine, procarbazine, prednisone/Adriamycin [doxorubicin], bleomycin, vinblastine; n = 266) or ABVPP (doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, procarbazine, prednisone; n = 267). Patients in complete remission (CR) or partial response of at least 75% after 6 cycles received 2 cycles of consolidation chemotherapy (CT) (n = 208) or subtotal nodal irradiation (RT) (n = 210). A better survival probability was observed after ABVPP alone: the 10-year overall survival (OS) estimates were 90% for ABVPP x 8, 78% for MOPP/ABV x 8, 82% for MOPP/ABV with RT, and 77% for ABVPP x 6 with RT (P = .03); and the 10-year disease-free survival (DFS) estimates were 70%, 76%, 79%, and 76%, respectively (P = .09). The 10-year DFS estimates for patients treated with consolidation CT or RT were 73% and 78% (P = .07), and OS estimates were 84% and 79%, respectively (P = .29). These results showed that RT was not superior to consolidation CT after a doxorubicin-induced CR in patients with advanced HL. An analysis of competing risks identified age more than 45 years as a significant risk factor for death, relapse, and second cancers. Prospective evaluation of late adverse events may improve the management of patients with HL.

  18. Is Resilience Only Skin Deep? Rural African Americans’ Preadolescent Socioeconomic Status-Related Risk and Competence and Age 19 Psychological Adjustment and Allostatic Load

    PubMed Central

    Brody, Gene H.; Yu, Tianyi; Chen, Edith; Miller, Gregory E.; Kogan, Steven M.; Beach, Steven R. H.

    2012-01-01

    Many African American youth may develop high levels of allostatic load (AL), a measure of physiological wear and tear on the body as a function of developing psychosocial competence under conditions of high SES-related risk. The current study was designed to test hypotheses based on John Henryism theory about such physiological costs. We tested these hypotheses with a representative sample of 489 African American youth living in the rural South. Cumulative SES-related risks and teacher-reported competence were assessed when the youth were 11 to 13 years of age; depressive symptoms, externalizing behavior, and AL were assessed at age 19. The results revealed that rural African American preadolescents who evinced high psychosocial competence under conditions of high cumulative SES-related risk displayed low levels of adjustment problems along with high AL at age 19. These results suggest that, for many rural African Americans, resilience may indeed be only “skin deep.” PMID:23722980

  19. Differential mortality and the excess burden of end-stage renal disease among First Nations people with diabetes mellitus: a competing-risks analysis

    PubMed Central

    Jiang, Ying; Osgood, Nathaniel; Lim, Hyun-Ja; Stang, Mary Rose; Dyck, Roland

    2014-01-01

    Background: Diabetes-related end-stage renal disease disproportionately affects indigenous peoples. We explored the role of differential mortality in this disparity. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we examined the competing risks of end-stage renal disease and death without end-stage renal disease among Saskatchewan adults with diabetes mellitus, both First Nations and non–First Nations, from 1980 to 2005. Using administrative databases of the Saskatchewan Ministry of Health, we developed Fine and Gray subdistribution hazards models and cumulative incidence functions. Results: Of the 90 429 incident cases of diabetes, 8254 (8.9%) occurred among First Nations adults and 82 175 (90.9%) among non–First Nations adults. Mean age at the time that diabetes was diagnosed was 47.2 and 61.6 years, respectively (p < 0.001). After adjustment for sex and age at the time of diabetes diagnosis, the risk of end-stage renal disease was 2.66 times higher for First Nations than non–First Nations adults (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.24–3.16). Multivariable analysis with adjustment for sex showed a higher risk of death among First Nations adults, which declined with increasing age at the time of diabetes diagnosis. Cumulative incidence function curves stratified by age at the time of diabetes diagnosis showed greatest risk for end-stage renal disease among those with onset of diabetes at younger ages and greatest risk of death among those with onset of diabetes at older ages. Interpretation: Because they are typically younger when diabetes is diagnosed, First Nations adults with this condition are more likely than their non–First Nations counterparts to survive long enough for end-stage renal disease to develop. Differential mortality contributes substantially to ethnicity-based disparities in diabetes-related end-stage renal disease and possibly to chronic diabetes complications. Understanding the mechanisms underlying these disparities is vital in developing

  20. Genetic Variants in MicroRNA Biosynthesis Pathways and Binding Sites Modify Ovarian Cancer Risk, Survival, and Treatment Response

    PubMed Central

    Liang, Dong; Meyer, Larissa; Chang, David W.; Lin, Jie; Pu, Xia; Ye, Yuanqing; Gu, Jian; Wu, Xifeng; Lu, Karen

    2017-01-01

    MicroRNAs (miRNA) play important roles in tumorigenesis. Genetic variations in miRNA processing genes and miRNA binding sites may affect the biogenesis of miRNA and the regulatory effect of miRNAs to their target genes, hence promoting tumorigenesis. This study analyzed 226 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in miRNA processing genes and miRNA binding sites in 339 ovarian cancer cases and 349 healthy controls to assess association with cancer risk, overall survival, and treatment response. Thirteen polymorphisms were found to have significant association with risk. The most significant were 2 linked SNPs (r2 = 0.99), rs2740351 and rs7813 in GEMIN4 [odds ratio (OR) = 0.71; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.57–0.87 and OR = 0.71; 95% CI, 0.57–0.88, respectively]. Unfavorable genotype analysis showed the cumulative effect of these 13 SNPs on risk (P for trend < 0.0001). Potential higher order gene–gene interactions were identified, which categorized patients into different risk groups according to their genotypic signatures. In the clinical outcome study, 24 SNPs exhibited significant association with overall survival and 17 SNPs with treatment response. Notably, patients carrying a rare homozygous genotype of rs1425486 in PDGFC had poorer overall survival [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.69; 95% CI, 1.67–4.33] and worse treatment response (OR = 3.38; 95% CI, 1.39–8.19), compared to carriers of common homozygous and heterozygous genotypes. Unfavorable genotype analyses also showed a strong gene-dosage effect with decreased survival and increased risk of treatment nonresponse in patients with greater number of unfavorable genotypes (P for trend < 0.0001). Taken together, miRNA-related genetic polymorphisms may impact ovarian cancer predisposition and clinical outcome both individually and jointly. PMID:21118967

  1. Survival or Mortality: Does Risk Attribute Framing Influence Decision-Making Behavior in a Discrete Choice Experiment?

    PubMed

    Veldwijk, Jorien; Essers, Brigitte A B; Lambooij, Mattijs S; Dirksen, Carmen D; Smit, Henriette A; de Wit, G Ardine

    2016-01-01

    To test how attribute framing in a discrete choice experiment (DCE) affects respondents' decision-making behavior and their preferences. Two versions of a DCE questionnaire containing nine choice tasks were distributed among a representative sample of the Dutch population aged 55 to 65 years. The DCE consisted of four attributes related to the decision regarding participation in genetic screening for colorectal cancer (CRC). The risk attribute included was framed positively as the probability of surviving CRC and negatively as the probability of dying from CRC. Panel mixed-logit models were used to estimate the relative importance of the attributes. The data of the positively and negatively framed DCE were compared on the basis of direct attribute ranking, dominant decision-making behavior, preferences, and importance scores. The majority (56%) of the respondents ranked survival as the most important attribute in the positively framed DCE, whereas only a minority (8%) of the respondents ranked mortality as the most important attribute in the negatively framed DCE. Respondents made dominant choices based on survival significantly more often than based on mortality. The framing of the risk attribute significantly influenced all attribute-level estimates and resulted in different preference structures among respondents in the positively and negatively framed data set. Risk framing affects how respondents value the presented risk. Positive risk framing led to increased dominant decision-making behavior, whereas negative risk framing led to risk-seeking behavior. Attribute framing should have a prominent part in the expert and focus group interviews, and different types of framing should be used in the pilot version of DCEs as well as in actual DCEs to estimate the magnitude of the effect of choosing different types of framing. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Superior Survival Using Living Donors and Donor-Recipient Matching Using a Novel Living Donor Risk Index

    PubMed Central

    Goldberg, David S.; French, Benjamin; Abt, Peter L; Olthoff, Kim; Shaked, Abraham

    2014-01-01

    The deceased-donor organ supply in the U.S. has not been able to keep pace with the increasing demand for liver transplantation. We examined national OPTN/UNOS data from 2002–2012 to assess whether LDLT has surpassed deceased donor liver transplantation (DDLT) as a superior method of transplantation, and used donor and recipient characteristics to develop a risk score to optimize donor and recipient selection for LDLT. From 2002–2012, there were 2,103 LDLTs and 46,674 DDLTs that met the inclusion criteria. The unadjusted 3-year graft survival for DDLTs was 75.5% (95% CI: 75.1–76.0%) compared with 78.9% (95% CI: 76.9–80.8%; p<0.001) for LDLTs that were performed at experienced centers (>15 LDLTs), with substantial improvement in LDLT graft survival over time. In multivariable models, LDLT recipients transplanted at experienced centers with either autoimmune hepatitis or cholestatic liver disease had significantly lower risks of graft failure (HR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.37–0.84 and HR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.63–0.92, respectively). An LDLT risk score that included both donor and recipient variables facilitated stratification of LDLT recipients into high, intermediate, and low-risk groups, with predicted 3-year graft survival ranging from >87% in the lowest risk group to <74% in the highest risk group. Current post-transplant outcomes for LDLT are equivalent, if not superior to DDLT when performed at experienced centers. An LDLT risk score can be used to optimize LDLT outcomes and provides objective selection criteria for donor selection in LDLT. PMID:25042283

  3. Melanoma long non-coding RNA signature predicts prognostic survival and directs clinical risk-specific treatments.

    PubMed

    Chen, Xijia; Guo, Wenna; Xu, Xin-Jian; Su, Fangchu; Wang, Yi; Zhang, Yingzheng; Wang, Qiang; Zhu, Liucun

    2017-03-01

    Various studies have demonstrated that the Breslow thickness, tumor ulceration and mitotic index could serve as prognostic markers in patients with cutaneous melanoma. Recently, however, as these clinicopathological biomarkers lack efficient interpretation of endogenous mechanism of melanoma, the emphasis on the prognosis of melanoma has transformed to molecular tumor markers. This study was designed to identify survival-related long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs), and based on the different expressions of these lncRNAs, clinical risk-specific diagnosis and adjuvant therapy could be employed on melanoma patients, especially patients in the early course of disease or patients with a Breslow thickness no more than 2mm. The clinical information and corresponding RNA expression data were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas dataset and Gene Expression Omnibus dataset (GSE65904). All samples were categorized into one training dataset and two validation datasets. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was then used to identify survival-related lncRNAs and risk assessment signature was constructed in training dataset. Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the utility of this signature in predicting the duration of survival of patients both in the training dataset and two validation datasets. Meanwhile receiver operating characteristic analyses were used to evaluate the predictive effectiveness of this signature in two validation datasets. It was found that the signature was effective while used for risk stratification, and Kaplan-Meier analyses indicated that the duration of survival of patients in high-risk groups were significantly shorter than that of low-risk groups. Moreover, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.711 (95% confidence interval: 0.618-0.804) and 0.698 (95% confidence interval: 0.614-0.782) when this signature was used to predict the patients' duration of survival in two validation datasets respectively, indicating the

  4. Predictors of competing mortality in early breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Mell, Loren K; Jeong, Jong-Hyeon; Nichols, Michael A; Polite, Blase N; Weichselbaum, Ralph R; Chmura, Steven J

    2010-12-01

    Death in the absence of disease recurrence (competing mortality) is an important determinant of disease-free survival (DFS) in early breast cancer. The authors sought to identify predictors of this event using competing risks modeling. A cohort study was made of 1231 consecutive women with stage I to II invasive breast cancer diagnosed between 1986 and 2004, treated with breast conservation therapy. Median follow-up was 82 months. The authors used a parametric competing risks regression model to analyze factors associated with the cumulative incidence of competing mortality. They generated a risk score from the model coefficient estimates and stratified patients according to low and high risk score for analysis. Ten-year DFS was 69.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 66.2%-72.9%). The 10-year cumulative incidence of locoregional recurrence (LRR) was 4.4% (95% CI, 3.0%-5.8%), distant recurrence was 7.1% (95% CI, 5.4%-8.9%), and competing mortality was 18.7% (95% CI, 15.9%-21.6%). On multivariate analysis, competing mortality was associated with increasing age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.83 per 10 years; 95% CI, 1.58-2.12), black race (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.17-2.51), and comorbid disease (HR, 1.93, 95% CI, 1.40-2.65). Ten-year cumulative incidences of competing mortality, locoregional recurrence, and distant recurrence for patients at low (n=638) versus high (n=593) risk of competing mortality were 7.2% versus 30.6% (P<.001), 4.4% versus 4.4% (P=.97), and 8.6% versus 5.6% (P=.12), respectively. Competing mortality is an important event influencing 10-year DFS in early breast cancer and is associated with increasing age, black race, and comorbid disease. Stratifying patients according to competing mortality risk may be useful in designing clinical trials. Copyright © 2010 American Cancer Society.

  5. Twitter as a Potential Disaster Risk Reduction Tool. Part IV: Competency-based Education and Training Guidelines to Promote Community Resiliency

    PubMed Central

    Yeager, Violet; Cooper, Guy Paul; Burkle, Frederick M.; Subbarao, Italo

    2015-01-01

    Twitter can be an effective tool for disaster risk reduction but gaps in education and training exist in current public health and disaster management educational competency standards.  Eleven core public health and disaster management competencies are proposed that incorporate Twitter as a tool for effective disaster risk reduction.  Greater funding is required to promote the education and training of this tool for those in professional schools and in the current public health and disaster management workforce.  PMID:26203398

  6. The influence of thrombophilic risk factors on vascular access survival in chronic dialysis patients in a retrospective evaluation.

    PubMed

    Klamroth, Robert; Orlovic, Marija; Fritsche, Ilona; Seibt, Simone; Seibt, Frank; Wegscheider, Karl; Landgraf, Helmut

    2013-01-01

    Vascular access by dialysis graft or fistula is of major importance for hemodialysis treatment. Vascular access occlusion is one main reason for hospitalization of patients on hemodialysis. Thrombophilic risk factors are discussed as one cause for occlusion. The aim of this study was to determine if the presence of thrombophilic factors is associated with a reduced survival rate of vascular dialysis access. The following thrombophilic parameters were measured in every hemodialysis patient from five outpatient dialysis centers in Berlin: antithrombin, protein C, protein S, prothrombin mutation (G20210A), factor V mutation (G1691A), lupus anticoagulant, anticardiolipin antibodies, factor VIII, plasminogen activator inhibitor, homocysteine and lipoprotein(a). Vascular access characteristics such as vascular access material (PTFE graft or native fistula) and location were also recorded. Each patient's medical history was documented. 199 patients with a total of 499 vascular accesses in the past (311 native fistulas (62.3 %) and 188 PTFE grafts (33.7 %)) were included in this study. The type of vascular access played an important role, with mean survival times of 34.2 months for native fistulas versus 9.5 months for grafts. There was at least one thrombophilic risk factor present in 69.8 % of the patients. In the univariate analysis thrombophilia had a significant influence on vascular access survival. The effect persisted throughout the multivariate analysis. Multivariate Cox analysis showed that the presence of thrombophilic factors was associated with a 43 % (mild) to 105 % (severe thrombophilia) increased risk of occlusion of the vascular access, corresponding to a 45 % to 68 % reduction of native access survival time. The influence of thrombophilia was evident in fistulas as well as in PTFE grafts. Thrombophilia plays a role in vascular accesses survival in patients on hemodialysis. In hemodialysis patients with recurrent occlusions of vascular access thrombophilia

  7. A collaborative national model to assess competencies for medical students, residents, and other healthcare practitioners in gait and falls risk evaluation.

    PubMed

    Atkinson, Hal H; Tan, Zaldy S; Brennan, Maura; Granville, Lisa

    2014-06-01

    To ensure that the healthcare workforce is adequately prepared to care for the growing population of older adults, minimum competencies in geriatrics have been published for medical students and primary care residents. Approaches to teaching and assessing these competencies are needed to guide medical schools, residencies, and continuing medical education programs. With sponsorship by the Education Committee and Teachers Section of the American Geriatrics Society (AGS), geriatrics educators from multiple institutions collaborated to develop a model to teach and assess a major domain of student and resident competency: Gait and Falls Risk Evaluation. The model was introduced as a workshop at annual meetings of the AGS and the American College of Physicians in 2011 and 2012. Participants included medical students, residents, geriatrics fellows, practicing physicians, and midlevel practitioners. At both national meetings, participants rated the experience highly and reported statistically significant gains in overall competence in gait and falls risk evaluation. The largest gains were observed for medical students, residents, and practicing physicians (P < .001 for all); geriatrics fellows reported a higher level of baseline competence and therefore had a lower magnitude of improvement, albeit still significant (P = .02). Finally, the majority of participants reported intent to disseminate the model in their institutions. This article describes the design, implementation, and evaluation of this collaborative national model. A number of institutions have used the model, and the goal of this article is to aid in further dissemination of this successful approach to teaching and assessing geriatrics competencies.

  8. Jaundice: an important, poorly recognized risk factor for diminished survival in patients with adenocarcinoma of the head of the pancreas

    PubMed Central

    Strasberg, Steven M; Gao, Feng; Sanford, Dominic; Linehan, David C; Hawkins, William G; Fields, Ryan; Carpenter, Danielle H; Brunt, Elizabeth M; Phillips, Carolyn

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: Jaundice impairs cellular immunity, an important defence against the dissemination of cancer. Jaundice is a common mode of presentation in pancreatic head adenocarcinoma. The purpose of this study was to determine whether there is an association between preoperative jaundice and survival in patients who have undergone resection of such tumours. Methods: Thirty possible survival risk factors were evaluated in a database of over 400 resected patients. Univariate analysis was used to determine odds ratio for death. All factors for which a P-value of <0.30 was obtained were entered into a multivariate analysis using the Cox model with backward selection. Results: Preoperative jaundice, age, positive node status, poor differentiation and lymphatic invasion were significant indicators of poor outcome in multivariate analysis. Absence of jaundice was a highly favourable prognostic factor. Interaction emerged between jaundice and nodal status. The benefit conferred by the absence of jaundice was restricted to patients in whom negative node status was present. Five-year overall survival in this group was 66%. Jaundiced patients who underwent preoperative stenting had a survival advantage. Conclusions: Preoperative jaundice is a negative risk factor in adenocarcinoma of the pancreas. Additional studies are required to determine the exact mechanism for this effect. PMID:23600768

  9. [Quality of life and overall survival in high risk patients after radical cystectomy with a simple urinary derivation].

    PubMed

    Mucciardi, Giuseppe; Macchione, Luciano; Galì, Alessandro; di Benedetto, Antonina; Subba, Enrica; Pappalardo, Rosa; Mucciardi, Massimo; Butticè, Salvatore; Inferrera, Antonino; Magno, Carlo

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate quality of life (QoL) and overall survival after radical cystectomy with cutaneous ureterostomies for locally advanced bladder cancer in elderly patients with high surgical risk. Fifty eight patients older than 74 years (mean age 80,6±4,3) with locally advanced bladder cancer (group A), underwent radical cystectomy and ureterocutaneous diversion. Patients completed the EORTC QLQC30 before and six months after surgery to assess functional, clinical and QoL outcomes. The same evaluation was carried out in a control group (group B) of 29 patients (mean age 82,3±3,8 years), who had refused cystectomy. Questionnaires were also administered to patients of both groups who survived at least 20 months and 5 years. All patients presented with an ASA score ≥3. Mean hospital stay was 15.1 days (±4.8) in group A and 23.5 days (±4.1) in Group B. No intraoperative complications occurred in group A. Postoperative overall survival evaluated within 6 months in group A was 97% versus 79% in group B (p<0.001). Radical cystectomy with cutaneous ureterostomy represents a valid alternative in elderly patients with invasive bladder cancer and high operative risk. Comparison between two groups showed a statistically significant difference for almost all the Qol related parameters and for short and medium term overall survival. Copyright © 2012 AEC. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  10. Reducing psychosocial risks through supervisors' development: a contribution for a brief version of the "Stress Management Competency Indicator Tool".

    PubMed

    Toderi, Stefano; Gaggia, Andrea; Balducci, Cristian; Sarchielli, Guido

    2015-06-15

    With the recent changes in the world of work psychosocial risks are increasingly prevalent, causing work stress and physical and mental illnesses, which have a tremendous impact on public health and social participation. Supervisors' behaviour development was proposed as an innovative intervention that can reduce psychosocial risks. The "Stress Management Competency Indicator Tool" is one of the most important questionnaires that assess managers' preventive behaviour. However, its psychometric properties have never been evaluated and the length of the questionnaire (66 items) limits its practical applicability. The aim of this study was to contribute to the development of the questionnaire by providing psychometric evidence on a brief version of the tool focusing on the "Managing and Communicating existing and future Work" cluster of behaviours, which has been found to be the crucial one in terms of stress prevention. A questionnaire was administered to 178 employees of two Italian public organizations (a municipality and a hospital), measuring the supervisors' "Managing and Communicating existing and future Work" competency, and the affective well-being and work team effectiveness. The results showed excellent psychometric properties of the supervisors' behaviour scale and confirmed the expected relationships with criterion outcomes (affective well-being and team effectiveness). Overall, the factorial structure and dimensionality, the construct validity and reliability, and the concurrent validity of the tool were strongly supported by this study. We concluded that the brief version of the scale is a valid and reliable measure that can be easily used in practice and that can contribute to the development of research and practice on this topic. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. ESHOL study reanalysis: All-cause mortality considered by competing risks and time-dependent covariates for renal transplantation.

    PubMed

    Maduell, Francisco; Moreso, Francesc; Mora-Macià, Josep; Pons, Mercedes; Ramos, Rosa; Carreras, Jordi; Soler, Jordi; Torres, Ferrán

    2016-01-01

    The ESHOL study showed that post-dilution online haemodiafiltration (OL-HDF) reduces all-cause mortality versus haemodialysis. However, during the observation period, 355 patients prematurely completed the study and, according to the study design, these patients were censored at the time of premature termination. The aim of this study was to investigate the outcome of patients who discontinued the study. During follow-up, 207 patients died while under treatment and 47 patients died after discontinuation of the study. Compared with patients maintained on haemodialysis, those randomised to OL-HDF had lower all-cause mortality (12.4 versus 9.46 per 100 patient-years, hazard ratio and 95%CI: 0.76; [0.59-0.98], P= 0.031). For all-cause mortality by time-dependent covariates and competing risks for transplantation, the time-dependent Cox analysis showed very similar results to the main analysis with a hazard ratio of 0.77 (0.60-0.99, P= 0.043). The results of this analysis of the ESHOL trial confirm that post-dilution OL-HDF reduces all-cause mortality versus haemodialysis in prevalent patients. The original results of the ESHOL study, which censored patients discontinuing the study for any reason, were confirmed in the present ITT population without censures and when all-cause mortality was considered by time-dependent and competing risks for transplantation. Copyright © 2015 Sociedad Española de Nefrología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  12. The survival outcomes following liver transplantation (SOFT) score: validation with contemporaneous data and stratification of high-risk cohorts.

    PubMed

    Rana, Abbas; Jie, Tun; Porubsky, Marian; Habib, Shahid; Rilo, Horacio; Kaplan, Bruce; Gruessner, Angelika; Gruessner, Rainer

    2013-01-01

    Models to project survival after liver transplantation are important to optimize outcomes. We introduced the survival outcomes following liver transplantation (SOFT) score in 2008 (1) and designed to predict survival in liver recipients at three months post-transplant with a C statistic of 0.70. Our objective was to validate the SOFT score, with more contemporaneous data from the OPTN database. We also applied the SOFT score to cohorts of the sickest transplant candidates and the poorest-quality allografts. Analysis included 21 949 patients transplanted from August 1, 2006, to October 1, 2010. Kaplan-Meier survival functions were used for time-to-event analysis. Model discrimination was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. We validated the SOFT score in this cohort of 21 949 liver recipients. The C statistic was 0.70 (CI 0.68-0.71), identical to the original analysis. When applied to cohorts of high-risk recipients and poor-quality donor allografts, the SOFT score projected survival with a C statistic between 0.65 and 0.74. In this study, a validated SOFT score was informative among cohorts of the sickest transplant candidates and the poorest-quality allografts. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  13. Evaluating the competing risks of HIV acquisition and maternal mortality in Africa: a decision analysis.

    PubMed

    Rodriguez, M I; Reeves, M F; Caughey, A B

    2012-08-01

    To model the risk of HIV acquisition and maternal mortality for women in four African countries in the light of previous data on risk of HIV acquisition and hormonal contraceptive use. Decision analysis. Chad, Kenya, South Africa and Uganda. Women of reproductive age, at risk of HIV, who do not desire pregnancy. A decision analysis model was built to compare the consequences of removing progestin injectables from use, assuming an increased risk of HIV acquisition. Three scenarios were considered in four African countries: replacement of progestin injectables with no method, with combined oral contraceptives (COC) or with an intrauterine device (IUD). Health outcomes measured include: life-years, maternal mortality, HIV acquisition and unsafe abortion. Sensitivity analysis, including Monte Carlo simulation, was performed around all variables. HIV acquisition, maternal mortality and life-years. If progestin injectables are removed from use, without a minimum of 70-100% of women switching to an IUD or COCs, up to nine additional maternal deaths will occur for every case of HIV averted. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that this finding persisted across a broad range of variables. Contraception is critical to preserving life for women in Africa. In the absence of clear evidence regarding hormonal contraception and HIV acquisition, policy decisions must not overlook the very real risk of maternal mortality. © 2012 World Health Organization BJOG An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology © 2012 RCOG.

  14. Clinical and Biologic Features Predictive of Survival After Relapse of Neuroblastoma: A Report From the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group Project

    PubMed Central

    London, Wendy B.; Castel, Victoria; Monclair, Tom; Ambros, Peter F.; Pearson, Andrew D.J.; Cohn, Susan L.; Berthold, Frank; Nakagawara, Akira; Ladenstein, Ruth L.; Iehara, Tomoko; Matthay, Katherine K.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose Survival after neuroblastoma relapse is poor. Understanding the relationship between clinical and biologic features and outcome after relapse may help in selection of optimal therapy. Our aim was to determine which factors were significantly predictive of postrelapse overall survival (OS) in patients with recurrent neuroblastoma—particularly whether time from diagnosis to first relapse (TTFR) was a significant predictor of OS. Patients and Methods Patients with first relapse/progression were identified in the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group (INRG) database. Time from study enrollment until first event and OS time starting from first event were calculated. Cox regression models were used to calculate the hazard ratio of increased death risk and perform survival tree regression. TTFR was tested in a multivariable Cox model with other factors. Results In the INRG database (N = 8,800), 2,266 patients experienced first progression/relapse. Median time to relapse was 13.2 months (range, 1 day to 11.4 years). Five-year OS from time of first event was 20% (SE, ± 1%). TTFR was statistically significantly associated with OS time in a nonlinear relationship; patients with TTFR of 36 months or longer had the lowest risk of death, followed by patients who relapsed in the period of 0 to less than 6 months or 18 to 36 months. Patients who relapsed between 6 and 18 months after diagnosis had the highest risk of death. TTFR, age, International Neuroblastoma Staging System stage, and MYCN copy number status were independently predictive of postrelapse OS in multivariable analysis. Conclusion Age, stage, MYCN status, and TTFR are significant prognostic factors for postrelapse survival and may help in the design of clinical trials evaluating novel agents. PMID:21768459

  15. SLC22A3 polymorphisms do not modify pancreatic cancer risk, but may influence overall patient survival

    PubMed Central

    Mohelnikova-Duchonova, Beatrice; Strouhal, Ondrej; Hughes, David J.; Holcatova, Ivana; Oliverius, Martin; Kala, Zdenek; Campa, Daniele; Rizzato, Cosmeri; Canzian, Federico; Pezzilli, Raffaele; Talar-Wojnarowska, Renata; Malecka-Panas, Ewa; Sperti, Cosimo; Federico Zambon, Carlo; Pedrazzoli, Sergio; Fogar, Paola; Milanetto, Anna Caterina; Capurso, Gabriele; Delle Fave, Gianfranco; Valente, Roberto; Gazouli, Maria; Malleo, Giuseppe; Teresa Lawlor, Rita; Strobel, Oliver; Hackert, Thilo; Giese, Nathalia; Vodicka, Pavel; Vodickova, Ludmila; Landi, Stefano; Tavano, Francesca; Gioffreda, Domenica; Piepoli, Ada; Pazienza, Valerio; Mambrini, Andrea; Pedata, Mariangela; Cantore, Maurizio; Bambi, Franco; Ermini, Stefano; Funel, Niccola; Lemstrova, Radmila; Soucek, Pavel

    2017-01-01

    Expression of the solute carrier (SLC) transporter SLC22A3 gene is associated with overall survival of pancreatic cancer patients. This study tested whether genetic variability in SLC22A3 associates with pancreatic cancer risk and prognosis. Twenty four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) tagging the SLC22A3 gene sequence and regulatory elements were selected for analysis. Of these, 22 were successfully evaluated in the discovery phase while six significant or suggestive variants entered the validation phase, comprising a total study number of 1,518 cases and 3,908 controls. In the discovery phase, rs2504938, rs9364554, and rs2457571 SNPs were significantly associated with pancreatic cancer risk. Moreover, rs7758229 associated with the presence of distant metastases, while rs512077 and rs2504956 correlated with overall survival of patients. Although replicated, the association for rs9364554 did not pass multiple testing corrections in the validation phase. Contrary to the discovery stage, rs2504938 associated with survival in the validation cohort, which was more pronounced in stage IV patients. In conclusion, common variation in the SLC22A3 gene is unlikely to significantly contribute to pancreatic cancer risk. The rs2504938 SNP in SLC22A3 significantly associates with an unfavorable prognosis of pancreatic cancer patients. Further investigation of this SNP effect on the molecular and clinical phenotype is warranted. PMID:28272475

  16. Survival and risk of relapse of acute lymphoblastic leukemia in a Mexican population is affected by dihydrofolate reductase gene polymorphisms

    PubMed Central

    GÓMEZ-GÓMEZ, YAZMÍN; ORGANISTA-NAVA, JORGE; SAAVEDRA-HERRERA, MÓNICA VIRGINIA; RIVERA-RAMÍREZ, ANA BERTHA; TERÁN-PORCAYO, MARCO ANTONIO; DEL CARMEN ALARCÓN-ROMERO, LUZ; ILLADES-AGUIAR, BERENICE; LEYVA-VÁZQUEZ, MARCO ANTONIO

    2012-01-01

    Dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR) is the major target of methotrexate, a key component in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) treatment. Polymorphisms in the gene coding for DHFR have been associated with adverse event treatment. This study evaluated the effect of the -A317G and C829T polymorphisms in the DHFR gene on survival and risk of relapse of ALL. Seventy patients with ALL and 100 healthy individuals were genotyped by the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism method. An association between the polymorphisms and the risk of relapse was found (p<0.05); patients with the -317G/G genotype were found to have an 8.55 (95% CI 1.84–39.70) higher chance of relapse and carriers of the 829T/T genotype had a 14.0 (95% CI 1.13–172.63) higher chance of relapse. Other variables, such as age and leukocyte count, were associated (p<0.05) with the risk of relapse of the disease. Individuals with the G/G and T/T genotype of the -A317G and C829T polymorphisms had poorer survival compared to other genotype groups (log-rank test; p<0.05). Although preliminary, these data seem to suggest a role for the DHFR polymorphisms in the risk of relapse of ALL and the mortality risk in these patients. PMID:22969948

  17. Socioenvironmental Risk and Adjustment in Latino Youth: The Mediating Effects of Family Processes and Social Competence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prelow, Hazel M.; Loukas, Alexandra; Jordan-Green, Lisa

    2007-01-01

    The direct and mediated effects of socioenvironmental risk on internalizing and externalizing problems among Latino youth aged 10-14 were examined using prospective analyses. Participants in this study were 464 Latino mother and child dyads surveyed as part of the "Welfare, Children & Families: A Three City Study." It was hypothesized that…

  18. Child Care Providers' Competence and Confidence in Referring Children at Risk for Developmental Delays

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Branson, Diane; Bingham, Ann

    2017-01-01

    Despite the benefits of early intervention for children, the majority of children with developmental delays are not identified prior to the age of 5 years. Child care providers could aid in recognition of children at risk for developmental delays; however, there is little research on this topic. This article reports on a qualitative research study…

  19. A Multivariate Investigation of Maternal Risks and Their Relationship to Low-Income, Preschool Children's Competencies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perry, Marlo A.; Fantuzzo, John W.

    2010-01-01

    Utilizing a developmental-ecological framework, the purpose of this study was to understand the unique impact of multiple maternal risks across time on ethnically diverse, low-income, preschool children's cognitive skills, pro-social behaviors, and behavior problems. Additionally, this study sought to understand the variability of maternal risks…

  20. Resilience and Risk Competence in Schools: Theory/Knowledge and International Application in Project REBOUND

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Joel H.; Jean-Marie, Gaetane; Beck, Jerome

    2010-01-01

    Despite a 50-year interdisciplinary and longitudinal research legacy--showing that nearly 80% of young people considered most "at risk" thrive by midlife--only recently have practitioners/researchers engaged in the explicit, prospective facilitation of "resilience" in educational settings. Here, theory/knowledge distinguishing…

  1. Parental Beliefs and Values Related to Family Risk, Educational Intervention, and Child Academic Competence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Campbell, Frances A.; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Studied the relation of child-rearing beliefs and values of parents of children entering kindergarten to children's academic achievements. Examined effects of a child-centered educational preschool program for socioeconomically disadvantaged children on parents' beliefs and values. Parents of children at risk differed from other parents in beliefs…

  2. Resilience and Risk Competence in Schools: Theory/Knowledge and International Application in Project REBOUND

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Joel H.; Jean-Marie, Gaetane; Beck, Jerome

    2010-01-01

    Despite a 50-year interdisciplinary and longitudinal research legacy--showing that nearly 80% of young people considered most "at risk" thrive by midlife--only recently have practitioners/researchers engaged in the explicit, prospective facilitation of "resilience" in educational settings. Here, theory/knowledge distinguishing…

  3. A Multivariate Investigation of Maternal Risks and Their Relationship to Low-Income, Preschool Children's Competencies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perry, Marlo A.; Fantuzzo, John W.

    2010-01-01

    Utilizing a developmental-ecological framework, the purpose of this study was to understand the unique impact of multiple maternal risks across time on ethnically diverse, low-income, preschool children's cognitive skills, pro-social behaviors, and behavior problems. Additionally, this study sought to understand the variability of maternal risks…

  4. Child Care Providers' Competence and Confidence in Referring Children at Risk for Developmental Delays

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Branson, Diane; Bingham, Ann

    2017-01-01

    Despite the benefits of early intervention for children, the majority of children with developmental delays are not identified prior to the age of 5 years. Child care providers could aid in recognition of children at risk for developmental delays; however, there is little research on this topic. This article reports on a qualitative research study…

  5. Socioenvironmental Risk and Adjustment in Latino Youth: The Mediating Effects of Family Processes and Social Competence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prelow, Hazel M.; Loukas, Alexandra; Jordan-Green, Lisa

    2007-01-01

    The direct and mediated effects of socioenvironmental risk on internalizing and externalizing problems among Latino youth aged 10-14 were examined using prospective analyses. Participants in this study were 464 Latino mother and child dyads surveyed as part of the "Welfare, Children & Families: A Three City Study." It was hypothesized that…

  6. Rifaximin treatment is associated with reduced risk of cirrhotic complications and prolonged overall survival in patients experiencing hepatic encephalopathy.

    PubMed

    Kang, S H; Lee, Y B; Lee, J-H; Nam, J Y; Chang, Y; Cho, H; Yoo, J-J; Cho, Y Y; Cho, E J; Yu, S J; Kim, M Y; Kim, Y J; Baik, S K; Yoon, J-H

    2017-08-24

    Rifaximin might decrease the risk of portal hypertension-related complications by controlling small intestinal bacterial overgrowth. To evaluate whether rifaximin was associated with the risk of death and cirrhotic complications. We conducted a retrospective study that included 1042 patients experiencing hepatic encephalopathy (HE): 421 patients without hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC; the non-HCC cohort) and 621 patients with HCC (the HCC cohort). The primary endpoint was overall survival and secondary endpoints were recurrence of HE and the development of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) and variceal bleeding. In the non-HCC cohort, 145 patients received rifaximin plus lactulose (the rifaximin group) and 276 patients received lactulose alone (the control group). The multivariate analysis revealed that rifaximin was significantly associated with lower risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.697; P = .024) and reduced the risk of recurrent HE (aHR, 0.452; P < .001), SBP (aHR, 0.210; P < .001) and variceal bleeding (aHR, 0.425; P = .011) but not HRS (aHR, 0.598; P = .08). In the HCC cohort, 173 patients received rifaximin plus lactulose and 448 patients received lactulose. Rifaximin was not associated with the risk of death (aHR, 1.177; P = .121). Rifaximin was associated with lower risk of SBP (aHR, 0.323; P < .001) but not with variceal bleeding (aHR, 0.660; P = .104) or recurrent HE (aHR, 0.689; P = .057). The risk of Clostridium difficile-associated diarrhoea was not different between the groups (aHR, 0.028; P = .338). In patients without HCC, rifaximin treatment was significantly associated with prolonged overall survival and reduced risks of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, variceal bleeding and recurrent hepatic encephalopathy. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. [Biological risk in health. Risk to third parties: medical-legal focus. Responsible behavior of the competent physician].

    PubMed

    Rodriguez, Daniele

    2010-01-01

    The responsibility of the occupational physician (OP) is discussed within the particular topic of biological risk generated by health care workers (HCW) versus third parties in health care settings. The present contribution offers keys of interpretation regarding current Italian legislation and passed sentences, taking into account principles of occupational medicine, the ICOH code of ethics for occupational health professionals, as well as duties and tasks of OP, employers and employees. Most of the responsibilities stand on employers, but OP has a primary duty of information and to judge fitness for work. It is underlined the difficult interpretation of the current legislation and indications. Behaviour of the OP could be censored in case of particular fitness for work or in case of inadequate information, as well as if the comprehension of information is not verified or when indication to minimize the risk are not controlled.

  8. The EARLY ALLIANCE prevention trial: an integrated set of interventions to promote competence and reduce risk for conduct disorder, substance abuse, and school failure.

    PubMed

    Dumas, J E; Prinz, R J; Smith, E P; Laughlin, J

    1999-03-01

    Describes the EARLY ALLIANCE interventions, an integrated set of four programs designed to promote competence and reduce risk for early-onset conduct disorder, substance abuse, and school failure. These interventions are evaluated as part of a prevention trial that begins at school entry and targets child functioning and socializing practices across multiple contexts (school, peer group, family) and multiple domains (affective, social, and achievement coping-competence). The paper presents the conceptual foundation of the four interventions, including a synopsis of the risk and protective factors associated with conduct disorder and related outcomes, and of the coping-competence model driving EARLY ALLIANCE. The developmental rationale, intended impact, and procedures are described for each intervention: a universally administered classroom program and indicated, peer, reading-mentoring, and family programs. Interventions are currently being tested in a prevention trial, which is briefly summarized.

  9. Risk factors for both recurrence and survival in patients with pathological stage I non-small-cell lung cancer.

    PubMed

    Kozu, Yoshiki; Maniwa, Tomohiro; Takahashi, Shoji; Isaka, Mitsuhiro; Ohde, Yasuhisa; Nakajima, Takashi

    2013-07-01

    Even after curative resection, a significant fraction of patients with stage I non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) die primarily because of systemic relapse. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the risk factors for both recurrence and poor survival in patients with pathological (p-) stage I NSCLC. We retrospectively reviewed 467 consecutive patients from a single institution with completely resected p-stage I NSCLC. Patients with multiple lung tumours or malignancies from other organs and those who had undergone preoperative therapies were excluded. The correlation between clinicopathological factors and surgical outcomes, including disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS), was analysed. The clinicopathological factors examined were age, gender, smoking history, serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels, serum cytokeratin 19 fragment levels, surgical procedure, tumour histology, p-stage, angiolymphatic invasion and differentiation grade. The 5-year DFS and OS rates of the total study population were 91.4 and 92.8%, respectively. Multivariate analysis results indicated that high serum CEA levels (>5.0 ng/ml) and p-stage IB were independent factors for recurrence, whereas older age (>70 years), high serum CEA levels and p-stage IB were independent factors for poor survival. The risks of recurrence and death in patients with both high serum CEA levels and p-stage IB was 10.3 and 5.2 times higher than those observed in patients with both normal serum CEA levels and p-stage IA, respectively. High serum CEA levels and p-stage IB were independent factors for both recurrence and poor survival in p-stage I NSCLC patients.

  10. Molecular markers to complement sentinel node status in predicting survival in patients with high-risk locally invasive melanoma.

    PubMed

    Rowe, Casey J; Tang, Fiona; Hughes, Maria Celia B; Rodero, Mathieu P; Malt, Maryrose; Lambie, Duncan; Barbour, Andrew; Hayward, Nicholas K; Smithers, B Mark; Green, Adele C; Khosrotehrani, Kiarash

    2016-08-01

    Sentinel lymph node status is a major prognostic marker in locally invasive cutaneous melanoma. However, this procedure is not always feasible, requires advanced logistics and carries rare but significant morbidity. Previous studies have linked markers of tumour biology to patient survival. In this study, we aimed to combine the predictive value of established biomarkers in addition to clinical parameters as indicators of survival in addition to or instead of sentinel node biopsy in a cohort of high-risk melanoma patients. Patients with locally invasive melanomas undergoing sentinel lymph node biopsy were ascertained and prospectively followed. Information on mortality was validated through the National Death Index. Immunohistochemistry was used to analyse proteins previously reported to be associated with melanoma survival, namely Ki67, p16 and CD163. Evaluation and multivariate analyses according to REMARK criteria were used to generate models to predict disease-free and melanoma-specific survival. A total of 189 patients with available archival material of their primary tumour were analysed. Our study sample was representative of the entire cohort (N = 559). Average Breslow thickness was 2.5 mm. Thirty-two (17%) patients in the study sample died from melanoma during the follow-up period. A prognostic score was developed and was strongly predictive of survival, independent of sentinel node status. The score allowed classification of risk of melanoma death in sentinel node-negative patients. Combining clinicopathological factors and established biomarkers allows prediction of outcome in locally invasive melanoma and might be implemented in addition to or in cases when sentinel node biopsy cannot be performed. © 2016 UICC.

  11. Identification of risk factors for hospital admission using multiple-failure survival models: a toolkit for researchers.

    PubMed

    Westbury, Leo D; Syddall, Holly E; Simmonds, Shirley J; Cooper, Cyrus; Sayer, Avan Aihie

    2016-04-26

    The UK population is ageing; improved understanding of risk factors for hospital admission is required. Linkage of the Hertfordshire Cohort Study (HCS) with Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data has created a multiple-failure survival dataset detailing the characteristics of 2,997 individuals at baseline (1998-2004, average age 66 years) and their hospital admissions (regarded as 'failure events') over a 10 year follow-up. Analysis of risk factors using logistic regression or time to first event Cox modelling wastes information as an individual's admissions after their first are disregarded. Sophisticated analysis techniques are established to examine risk factors for admission in such datasets but are not commonly implemented. We review analysis techniques for multiple-failure survival datasets (logistic regression; time to first event Cox modelling; and the Andersen and Gill [AG] and Prentice, Williams and Peterson Total Time [PWP-TT] multiple-failure models), outline their implementation in Stata, and compare their results in an analysis of housing tenure (a marker of socioeconomic position) as a risk factor for different types of hospital admission (any; emergency; elective; >7 days). The AG and PWP-TT models include full admissions histories in the analysis of risk factors for admission and account for within-subject correlation of failure times. The PWP-TT model is also stratified on the number of previous failure events, allowing an individual's baseline risk of admission to increase with their number of previous admissions. All models yielded broadly similar results: not owner-occupying one's home was associated with increased risk of hospital admission. Estimated effect sizes were smaller from the PWP-TT model in comparison with other models owing to it having accounted for an increase in risk of admission with number of previous admissions. For example, hazard ratios [HR] from time to first event Cox models were 1.67(95 % CI: 1.36,2.04) and 1

  12. Effect of folylpolyglutamate synthase A22G polymorphism on the risk and survival of patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia

    PubMed Central

    GÓMEZ-GÓMEZ, YAZMÍN; ORGANISTA-NAVA, JORGE; RANGEL-RODRIGUEZ, CARLOS ALBERTO; ILLADES-AGUIAR, BERENICE; MORENO-GODÍNEZ, MARÍA ELENA; ALARCÓN-ROMERO, LUZ DEL CARMEN; LEYVA-VÁZQUEZ, MARCO ANTONIO

    2014-01-01

    Folylpolyglutamate synthase (FPGS) is the key enzyme that converts the chemotherapeutic agent, methotrexate (MTX), into MTX polyglutamate. An A22G polymorphism has been found in the FPGS gene. This study aimed to evaluated whether the A22G polymorphism in the FPGS gene is associated with an increased risk of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and whether it plays a role in increasing the survival of patients with ALL. In this study, a total of 70 patients with ALL and 100 healthy individuals were genotyped by polymerase chain reaction and sequencing methods. The homozygous variant, 22G/G [odds ratio (OR)=3.88; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.50–6.03] and the heterozygous variant, 22A/G (OR=1.37; 95% CI: 1.26–48.95) were risk factors for ALL. Patients with the 22A/G genotype had an OR of 1.81 (95% CI: 1.57–5.74; P=0.049) and carriers of the 22G/G genotype had an OR of 2.44 (95% CI: 2.40–11.82; P=0.017) for relapse. A significant association between the A22G polymorphism and survival of patients with ALL was found (P<0.05); whereas, individuals with A/G or G/G genotypes had a decreased overall survival (log-rank test, P=0.044). Although preliminary, these data suggest that the genotypes of the A22G polymorphism may be risk factors for ALL and may play a role in the survival of patients with ALL. PMID:25013492

  13. Outcomes and long-term survival of coronary artery surgery: The controversial role of opium as risk marker

    PubMed Central

    Najafi, Mahdi; Jahangiry, Leila; Mortazavi, Seyedeh Hamideh; Jalali, Arash; Karimi, Abbasali; Bozorgi, Ali

    2016-01-01

    AIM To study survival in isolated coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) patients and to evaluate the impact of preoperative chronic opium consumption on long-term outcome. METHODS Cohort of 566 isolated CABG patients as Tehran Heart Center cardiac output measurement was conducted. Daily evaluation until discharge as well as 4- and 12-mo and 6.5-year follow-up information for survival status were fulfilled for all patients. Long-term 6.5-year overall and opium-stratified survival, adjusted survival curves based on opium consumption as well as possible predictors of all-cause mortality using multiple cox regression were determined by statistical analysis. RESULTS Six point five-year overall survival was 91.8%; 86.6% in opium consumers and 92.7% in non-opium consumers (P = 0.035). Patients with positive history of opium consumption significantly tended to have lower ejection fraction (EF), higher creatinine level and higher prevalence of myocardial infarction. Multiple predictors of all-cause mortality included age, body mass index, EF, diabetes mellitus and cerebrovascular accident. The hazard ratio (HR) of 2.09 for the risk of mortality in opium addicted patients with a borderline P value (P = 0.052) was calculated in this model. Further adjustment with stratification based on smoking and opium addiction reduced the HR to 1.20 (P = 0.355). CONCLUSION Simultaneous impact of smoking as a confounding variable in most of the patients prevents from definitive judgment on the role of opium as an independent contributing factor in worse long-term survival of CABG patients in addition to advanced age, low EF, diabetes mellitus and cerebrovascular accident. Meanwhile, our findings do not confirm any cardio protective role for opium to improve outcome in coronary patients with the history of smoking. Further studies are needed to clarify pure effect of opium and warrant the aforementioned findings. PMID:27957254

  14. Competence, Self-Esteem, and Coping Efficacy as Mediators of Ecological Risk and Depressive Symptoms in Urban African American and European American Youth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prelow, Hazel M.; Weaver, Scott R.; Swenson, Rebecca R.

    2006-01-01

    Structural equation modeling was used to test [Sandler, "American Journal of Community Psychology" 29: 19-61.] a theoretical model of risk and resilience in an urban sample of African American and European American adolescents. The aims of the present study were to examine whether self-system processes (i.e., competence, self-esteem, and coping…

  15. Joint modeling of repeated multivariate cognitive measures and competing risks of dementia and death: a latent process and latent class approach.

    PubMed

    Proust-Lima, Cécile; Dartigues, Jean-François; Jacqmin-Gadda, Hélène

    2016-02-10

    Joint models initially dedicated to a single longitudinal marker and a single time-to-event need to be extended to account for the rich longitudinal data of cohort studies. Multiple causes of clinical progression are indeed usually observed, and multiple longitudinal markers are collected when the true latent trait of interest is hard to capture (e.g., quality of life, functional dependency, and cognitive level). These multivariate and longitudinal data also usually have nonstandard distributions (discrete, asymmetric, bounded, etc.). We propose a joint model based on a latent process and latent classes to analyze simultaneously such multiple longitudinal markers of different natures, and multiple causes of progression. A latent process model describes the latent trait of interest and links it to the observed longitudinal outcomes using flexible measurement models adapted to different types of data, and a latent class structure links the longitudinal and cause-specific survival models. The joint model is estimated in the maximum likelihood framework. A score test is developed to evaluate the assumption of conditional independence of the longitudinal markers and each cause of progression given the latent classes. In addition, individual dynamic cumulative incidences of each cause of progression based on the repeated marker data are derived. The methodology is validated in a simulation study and applied on real data about cognitive aging obtained from a large population-based study. The aim is to predict the risk of dementia by accounting for the competing death according to the profiles of semantic memory measured by two asymmetric psychometric tests. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Long-term survival and risk factors for failure of the native hip joint after operatively treated displaced acetabular fractures.

    PubMed

    Clarke-Jenssen, J; Røise, O; Storeggen, S A Ø; Madsen, J E

    2017-06-01

    Our aim in this study was to describe the long-term survival of the native hip joint after open reduction and internal fixation of a displaced fracture of the acetabulum. We also present long-term clinical outcomes and risk factors associated with a poor outcome. A total of 285 patients underwent surgery for a displaced acetabular fracture between 1993 and 2005. For the survival analysis 253 were included, there were 197 men and 56 women with a mean age of 42 years (12 to 78). The mean follow-up of 11 years (1 to 20) was identified from our pelvic fracture registry. There were 99 elementary and 154 associated fracture types. For the long-term clinical follow-up, 192 patients with complete data were included. Their mean age was 40 years (13 to 78) with a mean follow-up of 12 years (5 to 20). Injury to the femoral head and acetabular impaction were assessed with CT scans and patients with an ipsilateral fracture of the femoral head were excluded. A total of 36 patients underwent total hip arthroplasty (THA). The overall ten-year survival of the hip joint was 86% (95% confidence interval (CI) 81% to 90%) and the 20-year survival was 82% (95% CI 76% to 87%). Injury to the femoral head and acetabular impaction were the strongest predictors of failure, with the long-term survival rate falling towards 50% in these patients. The survival fell to 0% at three years when both these risk factors were present in patients aged > 60 years. The long-term survival of the native hip joint after acetabular fractures was good, but the presence of injury to the femoral head and acetabular impaction proved to be strong predictors of failure, especially in patients aged > 60 years. These patients may be better treated with a combination of open reduction and internal fixation and primary arthroplasty. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:834-40. ©2017 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.

  17. Association of matrix metalloproteinase-1 polymorphisms with risk of COPD and lung cancer and survival in lung cancer.

    PubMed

    Enewold, Lindsey; Mechanic, Leah E; Bowman, Elise D; Platz, Elizabeth A; Alberg, Anthony J

    2012-09-01

    The primary risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is cigarette smoking but shared susceptibility factors, such as variations in the matrix metalloproteinase-1 (MMP1) gene, may also underlie both diseases. Cases with prevalent COPD (n=167), incident NSCLC (n=242), or prevalent COPD plus incident NSCLC (n=128) were compared to disease-free controls (n=338) to assess six MMP1 polymorphisms. The association between these polymorphisms and survival in NSCLC was also evaluated. Rs11292517 among African-Americans [odds ratio (OR)=5.48, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.17-25.72] and rs2071230 among Caucasians (OR=2.51, 95% CI=1.09-5.77) appeared to be associated with NSCLC risk in the presence of COPD. Rs470558 appeared to be associated with survival in NSCLC among African-Americans (hazard ratio=3.94; 95%CI=1.14-13.63). No associations remained after adjusting for multiple comparisons. Polymorphisms in MMP1 were not consistently associated with prevalent COPD or incident NSCLC nor with survival in NSCLC.

  18. Association of Matrix Metalloproteinase-1 Polymorphisms with Risk of COPD and Lung Cancer and Survival in Lung Cancer

    PubMed Central

    ENEWOLD, LINDSEY; MECHANIC, LEAH E.; BOWMAN, ELISE D.; PLATZ, ELIZABETH A.; ALBERG, ANTHONY J.

    2013-01-01

    Background The primary risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is cigarette smoking but shared susceptibility factors, such as variations in the matrix metalloproteinase-1 (MMP1) gene, may also underlie both diseases. Materials and Methods Cases with prevalent COPD (n=167), incident NSCLC (n=242), or prevalent COPD plus incident NSCLC (n=128) were compared to disease-free controls (n=338) to assess six MMP1 polymorphisms. The association between these polymorphisms and survival in NSCLC was also evaluated. Results Rs11292517 among African-Americans [odds ratio (OR)=5.48, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.17–25.72] and rs2071230 among Caucasians (OR=2.51, 95% CI=1.09–5.77) appeared to be associated with NSCLC risk in the presence of COPD. Rs470558 appeared to be associated with survival in NSCLC among African-Americans (hazard ratio=3.94; 95%CI=1.14–13.63). No associations remained after adjusting for multiple comparisons. Conclusion Polymorphisms in MMP1 were not consistently associated with prevalent COPD or incident NSCLC nor with survival in NSCLC. PMID:22993337

  19. A hybrid approach of gene sets and single genes for the prediction of survival risks with gene expression data.

    PubMed

    Seok, Junhee; Davis, Ronald W; Xiao, Wenzhong

    2015-01-01

    Accumulated biological knowledge is often encoded as gene sets, collections of genes associated with similar biological functions or pathways. The use of gene sets in the analyses of high-throughput gene expression data has been intensively studied and applied in clinical research. However, the main interest remains in finding modules of biological knowledge, or corresponding gene sets, significantly associated with disease conditions. Risk prediction from censored survival times using gene sets hasn't been well studied. In this work, we propose a hybrid method that uses both single gene and gene set information together to predict patient survival risks from gene expression profiles. In the proposed method, gene sets provide context-level information that is poorly reflected by single genes. Complementarily, single genes help to supplement incomplete information of gene sets due to our imperfect biomedical knowledge. Through the tests over multiple data sets of cancer and trauma injury, the proposed method showed robust and improved performance compared with the conventional approaches with only single genes or gene sets solely. Additionally, we examined the prediction result in the trauma injury data, and showed that the modules of biological knowledge used in the prediction by the proposed method were highly interpretable in biology. A wide range of survival prediction problems in clinical genomics is expected to benefit from the use of biological knowledge.

  20. A Hybrid Approach of Gene Sets and Single Genes for the Prediction of Survival Risks with Gene Expression Data

    PubMed Central

    Seok, Junhee; Davis, Ronald W.; Xiao, Wenzhong

    2015-01-01

    Accumulated biological knowledge is often encoded as gene sets, collections of genes associated with similar biological functions or pathways. The use of gene sets in the analyses of high-throughput gene expression data has been intensively studied and applied in clinical research. However, the main interest remains in finding modules of biological knowledge, or corresponding gene sets, significantly associated with disease conditions. Risk prediction from censored survival times using gene sets hasn’t been well studied. In this work, we propose a hybrid method that uses both single gene and gene set information together to predict patient survival risks from gene expression profiles. In the proposed method, gene sets provide context-level information that is poorly reflected by single genes. Complementarily, single genes help to supplement incomplete information of gene sets due to our imperfect biomedical knowledge. Through the tests over multiple data sets of cancer and trauma injury, the proposed method showed robust and improved performance compared with the conventional approaches with only single genes or gene sets solely. Additionally, we examined the prediction result in the trauma injury data, and showed that the modules of biological knowledge used in the prediction by the proposed method were highly interpretable in biology. A wide range of survival prediction problems in clinical genomics is expected to benefit from the use of biological knowledge. PMID:25933378

  1. Improved Survival Endpoints With Adjuvant Radiation Treatment in Patients With High-Risk Early-Stage Endometrial Carcinoma

    SciTech Connect

    Elshaikh, Mohamed A.; Vance, Sean; Suri, Jaipreet S.; Mahan, Meredith; Munkarah, Adnan

    2014-02-01

    Purpose/Objective(s): To determine the impact of adjuvant radiation treatment (RT) on recurrence-free survival (RFS), disease-specific survival (DSS), and overall survival (OS) in patients with high-risk 2009 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage I-II endometrial carcinoma. Methods and Materials: We identified 382 patients with high-risk EC who underwent hysterectomy. RFS, DSS, and OS were calculated from the date of hysterectomy by use of the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox regression modeling was used to explore the risks associated with various factors on survival endpoints. Results: The median follow-up time for the study cohort was 5.4 years. The median age was 71 years. All patients underwent hysterectomy and salpingo-oophorectomy, 93% had peritoneal cytology, and 85% underwent lymphadenectomy. Patients with endometrioid histology constituted 72% of the study cohort, serous in 16%, clear cell in 7%, and mixed histology in 4%. Twenty-three percent of patients had stage II disease. Adjuvant management included RT alone in 220 patients (57%), chemotherapy alone in 25 patients (7%), and chemoradiation therapy in 27 patients (7%); 110 patients (29%) were treated with close surveillance. The 5-year RFS, DSS, and OS were 76%, 88%, and 73%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, adjuvant RT was a significant predictor of RFS (P<.001) DSS (P<.001), and OS (P=.017). Lymphovascular space involvement was a significant predictor of RFS and DSS (P<.001). High tumor grade was a significant predictor for RFS (P=.038) and DSS (P=.025). Involvement of the lower uterine segment was also a predictor of RFS (P=.049). Age at diagnosis and lymphovascular space involvement were significant predictors of OS: P<.001 and P=.002, respectively. Conclusion: In the treatment of patients with high-risk features, our study suggests that adjuvant RT significantly improves recurrence-free, disease-specific, and overall survival in patients with early-stage endometrial carcinoma

  2. Association Between NRAS and BRAF Mutational Status and Melanoma-Specific Survival Among Patients With Higher Risk Primary Melanoma

    PubMed Central

    Thomas, Nancy E.; Edmiston, Sharon N.; Alexander, Audrey; Groben, Pamela A.; Parrish, Eloise; Kricker, Anne; Armstrong, Bruce K.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Gruber, Stephen B.; From, Lynn; Busam, Klaus J.; Hao, Honglin; Orlow, Irene; Kanetsky, Peter A.; Luo, Li; Reiner, Anne S.; Paine, Susan; Frank, Jill S.; Bramson, Jennifer I.; Marrett, Lorraine D.; Gallagher, Richard P.; Zanetti, Roberto; Rosso, Stefano; Dwyer, Terence; Cust, Anne E.; Ollila, David W.; Begg, Colin B.; Berwick, Marianne; Conway, Kathleen

    2015-01-01

    Importance NRAS and BRAF mutations in melanoma inform current treatment paradigms but their role in survival from primary melanoma has not been established. Identification of patients at high risk of melanoma-related death based on their primary melanoma characteristics before evidence of recurrence could inform recommendations for patient follow-up and eligibility for adjuvant trials. Objective To determine tumor characteristics and survival from primary melanoma by somatic NRAS and BRAF status. Design, Setting, and Participants A population-based study with median follow-up of 7.6 years for 912 patients with first primary cutaneous melanoma analyzed for NRAS and BRAF mutations diagnosed in the year 2000 from the United States and Australia in the Genes, Environment and Melanoma Study and followed through 2007. Main Outcomes and Measures Tumor characteristics and melanoma-specific survival of primary melanoma by NRAS and BRAF mutational status. Results The melanomas were 13% NRAS+, 30% BRAF+, and 57% with neither NRAS nor BRAF mutation (wildtype). In a multivariable model including clinicopathologic characteristics, NRAS+ melanoma was associated (P<.05) with mitoses, lower tumor infiltrating lymphocyte (TIL) grade, and anatomic site other than scalp/neck and BRAF+ melanoma was associated with younger age, superficial spreading subtype, and mitoses, relative to wildtype melanoma. There was no significant difference in melanoma-specific survival for melanoma harboring mutations in NRAS (HR 1.7, 95% CI, 0.8–3.4) or BRAF (HR, 1.5, 95% CI, 0.8–2.9) compared to wildtype melanoma adjusted for age, sex, site, AJCC tumor stage, TIL grade, and study center. However, melanoma-specific survival was significantly poorer for higher risk (T2b or higher stage) tumors with NRAS (HR 2.9; 95% CI 1.1–7.7) or BRAF (HR 3.1; 95% CI 1.2–8.5) mutations but not for lower risk (T2a or lower) tumors (P=.65) adjusted for age, sex, site, AJCC tumor stage, TIL grade, and study center

  3. Angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibition compared with enalapril on the risk of clinical progression in surviving patients with heart failure.

    PubMed

    Packer, Milton; McMurray, John J V; Desai, Akshay S; Gong, Jianjian; Lefkowitz, Martin P; Rizkala, Adel R; Rouleau, Jean L; Shi, Victor C; Solomon, Scott D; Swedberg, Karl; Zile, Michael; Andersen, Karl; Arango, Juan Luis; Arnold, J Malcolm; Bělohlávek, Jan; Böhm, Michael; Boytsov, Sergey; Burgess, Lesley J; Cabrera, Walter; Calvo, Carlos; Chen, Chen-Huan; Dukat, Andrej; Duarte, Yan Carlos; Erglis, Andrejs; Fu, Michael; Gomez, Efrain; Gonzàlez-Medina, Angel; Hagège, Albert A; Huang, Jun; Katova, Tzvetana; Kiatchoosakun, Songsak; Kim, Kee-Sik; Kozan, Ömer; Llamas, Edmundo Bayram; Martinez, Felipe; Merkely, Bela; Mendoza, Iván; Mosterd, Arend; Negrusz-Kawecka, Marta; Peuhkurinen, Keijo; Ramires, Felix J A; Refsgaard, Jens; Rosenthal, Arvo; Senni, Michele; Sibulo, Antonio S; Silva-Cardoso, José; Squire, Iain B; Starling, Randall C; Teerlink, John R; Vanhaecke, Johan; Vinereanu, Dragos; Wong, Raymond Ching-Chiew

    2015-01-06

    Clinical trials in heart failure have focused on the improvement in symptoms or decreases in the risk of death and other cardiovascular events. Little is known about the effect of drugs on the risk of clinical deterioration in surviving patients. We compared the angiotensin-neprilysin inhibitor LCZ696 (400 mg daily) with the angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor enalapril (20 mg daily) in 8399 patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction in a double-blind trial. The analyses focused on prespecified measures of nonfatal clinical deterioration. In comparison with the enalapril group, fewer LCZ696-treated patients required intensification of medical treatment for heart failure (520 versus 604; hazard ratio, 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.94; P=0.003) or an emergency department visit for worsening heart failure (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.85; P=0.001). The patients in the LCZ696 group had 23% fewer hospitalizations for worsening heart failure (851 versus 1079; P<0.001) and were less likely to require intensive care (768 versus 879; 18% rate reduction, P=0.005), to receive intravenous positive inotropic agents (31% risk reduction, P<0.001), and to have implantation of a heart failure device or cardiac transplantation (22% risk reduction, P=0.07). The reduction in heart failure hospitalization with LCZ696 was evident within the first 30 days after randomization. Worsening of symptom scores in surviving patients was consistently more common in the enalapril group. LCZ696 led to an early and sustained reduction in biomarkers of myocardial wall stress and injury (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and troponin) versus enalapril. Angiotensin-neprilysin inhibition prevents the clinical progression of surviving patients with heart failure more effectively than angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibition. http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01035255. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

  4. Examining mortality risk and rate of ageing among Polish Olympic athletes: a survival follow-up from 1924 to 2012.

    PubMed

    Lin, Yuhui; Gajewski, Antoni; Poznańska, Anna

    2016-04-18

    Population-based studies have shown that an active lifestyle reduces mortality risk. Therefore, it has been a longstanding belief that individuals who engage in frequent exercise will experience a slower rate of ageing. It is uncertain whether this widely-accepted assumption holds for intense wear-and-tear. Here, using the 88 years survival follow-up data of Polish Olympic athletes, we report for the first time on whether frequent exercise alters the rate of ageing. Longitudinal survival data of male elite Polish athletes who participated in the Olympic Games from year 1924 to 2010 were used. Deaths occurring before the end of World War II were excluded for reliable estimates. Recruited male elite athletes N=1273 were preassigned to two categorical birth cohorts--Cohort I 1890-1919; Cohort II 1920-1959--and a parametric frailty survival analysis was conducted. An event-history analysis was also conducted to adjust for medical improvements from year 1920 onwards: Cohort II. Our findings suggest (1) in Cohort I, for every threefold reduction in mortality risk, the rate of ageing decelerates by 1%; (2) socioeconomic transitions and interventions contribute to a reduction in mortality risk of 29% for the general population and 50% for Olympic athletes; (3) an optimum benefit gained for reducing the rate of ageing from competitive sports (Cohort I 0.086 (95% CI 0.047 to 0.157) and Cohort II 0.085 (95% CI 0.050 to 0.144)). This study further suggests that intensive physical training during youth should be considered as a factor to improve ageing and mortality risk parameters. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  5. Examining mortality risk and rate of ageing among Polish Olympic athletes: a survival follow-up from 1924 to 2012

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Yuhui; Gajewski, Antoni; Poznańska, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Population-based studies have shown that an active lifestyle reduces mortality risk. Therefore, it has been a longstanding belief that individuals who engage in frequent exercise will experience a slower rate of ageing. It is uncertain whether this widely-accepted assumption holds for intense wear-and-tear. Here, using the 88 years survival follow-up data of Polish Olympic athletes, we report for the first time on whether frequent exercise alters the rate of ageing. Design Longitudinal survival data of male elite Polish athletes who participated in the Olympic Games from year 1924 to 2010 were used. Deaths occurring before the end of World War II were excluded for reliable estimates. Setting and participants Recruited male elite athletes N=1273 were preassigned to two categorical birth cohorts—Cohort I 1890–1919; Cohort II 1920–1959—and a parametric frailty survival analysis was conducted. An event-history analysis was also conducted to adjust for medical improvements from year 1920 onwards: Cohort II. Results Our findings suggest (1) in Cohort I, for every threefold reduction in mortality risk, the rate of ageing decelerates by 1%; (2) socioeconomic transitions and interventions contribute to a reduction in mortality risk of 29% for the general population and 50% for Olympic athletes; (3) an optimum benefit gained for reducing the rate of ageing from competitive sports (Cohort I 0.086 (95% CI 0.047 to 0.157) and Cohort II 0.085 (95% CI 0.050 to 0.144)). Conclusions This study further suggests that intensive physical training during youth should be considered as a factor to improve ageing and mortality risk parameters. PMID:27091824

  6. Competing-risks model in screening for pre-eclampsia in twin pregnancy by maternal characteristics and medical history.

    PubMed

    Francisco, C; Wright, D; Benkő, Z; Syngelaki, A; Nicolaides, K H

    2017-10-01

    A survival-time regression model for gestational age at delivery with pre-eclampsia (PE) in singleton pregnancy, using maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, was reported previously. The objective of this study was to extend this model to dichorionic (DC) and monochorionic (MC) twin pregnancy. The study population included 1789 DC and 430 MC twin pregnancies and 93 297 singleton pregnancies. A survival-time model for gestational age at delivery with PE was developed from variables of maternal characteristics and medical history. The risk of PE with delivery < 37 weeks and < 42 weeks in twin pregnancies was determined and compared with that in singleton pregnancies. In singleton pregnancies comprising women of Caucasian racial origin, mean weight of 69 kg at 12 weeks' gestation, mean height of 164 cm, nulliparous, with spontaneous conception, no family history of PE and no history of diabetes mellitus, systemic lupus erythematosus or antiphospholipid syndrome, the mean of the Gaussian distribution of gestational age at delivery with PE was 55 weeks. In DC twins with PE, mean gestational age at delivery was shifted to the left by 8.2 (95% CI, 7.2-9.1) weeks and in MC twins it was shifted to the left by 10.0 (95% CI, 8.5-11.4) weeks. The risk of delivery with PE occurring at, or before, a specified gestational age is given by the area under the fitted distribution curve. For a reference population with the above characteristics, the estimated risk of PE < 37 weeks' gestation, assuming no other cause of delivery, was 0.6% for singletons, 9.0% for DC twins and 14.2% for MC twins; the respective values for PE < 42 weeks were 3.6%, 27.0% and 36.5%. A model based on maternal characteristics and medical history has been developed for estimation of patient-specific risks for PE in DC and MC twin pregnancy. Such estimation of the a-priori risk for PE is an essential first step in the use of Bayes' theorem to combine maternal

  7. African American Race is an Independent Risk Factor in Survival from Initially Diagnosed Localized Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Wieder, Robert; Shafiq, Basit; Adam, Nabil

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: African American race negatively impacts survival from localized breast cancer but co-variable factors confound the impact. METHODS: Data sets were analyzed from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) directories from 1973 to 2011 consisting of patients with designated diagnosis of breast adenocarcinoma, race as White or Caucasian, Black or African American, Asian, American Indian or Alaskan Native, Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, age, stage I, II or III, grade 1, 2 or 3, estrogen receptor or progesterone receptor positive or negative, marital status as single, married, separated, divorced or widowed and laterality as right or left. The Cox Proportional Hazards Regression model was used to determine hazard ratios for survival. Chi square test was applied to determine the interdependence of variables found significant in the multivariable Cox Proportional Hazards Regression analysis. Cells with stratified data of patients with identical characteristics except African American or Caucasian race were compared. RESULTS: Age, stage, grade, ER and PR status and marital status significantly co-varied with race and with each other. Stratifications by single co-variables demonstrated worse hazard ratios for survival for African Americans. Stratification by three and four co-variables demonstrated worse hazard ratios for survival for African Americans in most subgroupings with sufficient numbers of values. Differences in some subgroupings containing poor prognostic co-variables did not reach significance, suggesting that race effects may be partly overcome by additional poor prognostic indicators. CONCLUSIONS: African American race is a poor prognostic indicator for survival from breast cancer independent of 6 associated co-variables with prognostic significance. PMID:27698895

  8. Efficient Estimation of Semiparametric Transformation Models for the Cumulative Incidence of Competing Risks.

    PubMed

    Mao, Lu; Lin, D Y

    2017-03-01

    The cumulative incidence is the probability of failure from the cause of interest over a certain time period in the presence of other risks. A semiparametric regression model proposed by Fine and Gray (1999) has become the method of choice for formulating the effects of covariates on the cumulative incidence. Its estimation, however, requires modeling of the censoring distribution and is not statistically efficient. In this paper, we present a broad class of semiparametric transformation models which extends the Fine and Gray model, and we allow for unknown causes of failure. We derive the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators (NPMLEs) and develop simple and fast numerical algorithms using the profile likelihood. We establish the consistency, asymptotic normality, and semiparametric efficiency of the NPMLEs. In addition, we construct graphical and numerical procedures to evaluate and select models. Finally, we demonstrate the advantages of the proposed methods over the existing ones through extensive simulation studies and an application to a major study on bone marrow transplantation.

  9. Long‐Term Post‐CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions

    PubMed Central

    Carr, Brendan M.; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C.; Zhu, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Background/aim Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short‐term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long‐term mortality. The added value of long‐term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long‐term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Methods Long‐term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c‐index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed. Results Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one‐, three‐, and five years, respectively (median follow‐up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long‐term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Conclusions Long‐term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long‐term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher‐risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow‐up care. More research appears warranted to refine long‐term CABG clinical risk models. doi: 10.1111/jocs.12665 (J Card Surg 2016;31:23–30) PMID:26543019

  10. Survival of Danish patients with endometrial cancer in the intermediate-risk group not given postoperative radiotherapy: the Danish Endometrial Cancer Study (DEMCA).

    PubMed

    Bertelsen, Kamma; Ortoft, Gitte; Hansen, Estrid Stæhr

    2011-10-01

    In a prospective study during the years 1986 to 1988, the Danish Endometrial Cancer Group (DEMCA) demonstrated that postoperative radiotherapy was unnecessary for low-risk patients with stage I disease. In the present study, we evaluated in a population-based study if radiotherapy could also be omitted for intermediate-risk patients with stage I disease without loss of survival. From 1998 to 1999, 1166 patients newly diagnosed with carcinoma of the uterus were included in this prospective nationwide study. Of these, 232 were intermediate-risk patients with stage I disease. All intermediate-risk patients received standard primary surgery (hysterectomy, bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy, and peritoneal washings), and no postoperative radiotherapy was given. Survival analyses were performed using Kaplan-Meier survival estimates. The results were compared to the 1986-1988 DEMCA data. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate for the entire population was 77% (stages I-IV). The patients with stage I disease were divided into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk; the OS rates were 91%, 78%, and 62%, and the endometrial cancer-specific survival rates were 97%, 87%, and 72%, respectively. Using patients' age, tumor grade, myometrial invasion, we divided the intermediate-risk group into "high risk" intermediate and "low-risk" intermediate with OS rates of 70% and 90% and cancer-specific survival of 81% and 96%, respectively. The OS rate (78%) of the intermediate-risk group after radiation had been omitted was comparable to the OS rate (79%) of the intermediate-risk group in the earlier DEMCA (1986-1988) study where postoperative radiation was still the standard of care. We conclude that in a population-based study, radiotherapy can be omitted for intermediate-risk patients with stage I endometrial cancer without loss of survival.

  11. Evaluating predictors of competing risk outcomes when censoring depends on time-dependent covariates, with application to safety and efficacy of HIV treatment.

    PubMed

    Lok, Judith J; Hughes, Michael D

    2016-06-15

    We propose a prediction model for the cumulative incidence functions of competing risks, based on a logit link. Because of a concern about censoring potentially depending on time-varying covariates in our motivating human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) application, we describe an approach for estimating the parameters in the prediction models using inverse probability of censoring weighting under a missingness at random assumption. We then illustrate the application of this methodology to identify predictors of the competing outcomes of virologic failure, an efficacy outcome, and treatment limiting adverse event, a safety outcome, among human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients first starting antiretroviral treatment. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Increased PD-1/STAT1 ratio may account for the survival benefit in decitabine therapy for lower risk myelodysplastic syndrome.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zheng; Chang, Chun-Kang; He, Qi; Guo, Juan; Tao, Ying; Wu, Ling-Yun; Xu, Feng; Wu, Dong; Zhou, Li-Yu; Su, Ji-Ying; Song, Lu-Xi; Xiao, Chao; Li, Xiao

    2017-04-01

    Decitabine is an effective therapy for patients with lower risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). However, the mechanisms of decitabine's therapeutic effect are not well established. Forty-four lower risk MDS patients received decitabine therapy. 59.1% patients achieved treatment response, and 53.8% patients who were RBC/platelet-dependent cast off the transfusion burden. The median overall survival (OS) was 19.0 months after decitabine treatment. Moreover, polarization toward type 1 in the CD8 + subset was enhanced, and a significantly increased expression of the PD-1, PD-L1, and PD-1/STAT1 ratio was observed in these lower risk MDS. The patients with amplification of PD-1/STAT1 ratio (2-4) achieved longer OS. Thus, our results suggest that the effect mechanism of decitabine toward lower risk MDS may be the moderate increase of PD-1/STAT1, which contributes to hematopoietic improvement. These findings suggest that a different PD-1-related strategy from those used to treat higher risk patients could be used for lower risk MDS patients.

  13. Estimating the lifetime risk of dementia in the Canadian elderly population using cross-sectional cohort survival data

    PubMed Central

    Carone, Marco; Asgharian, Masoud; Jewell, Nicholas P.

    2014-01-01

    Dementia is one of the world’s major public health challenges. The lifetime risk of dementia is the proportion of individuals who ever develop dementia during their lifetime. Despite its importance to epidemiologists and policy-makers, this measure does not seem to have been estimated in the Canadian population. Data from a birth cohort study of dementia are not available. Instead, we must rely on data from the Canadian Study of Heath and Aging, a large cross-sectional study of dementia with follow-up for survival. These data present challenges because they include substantial loss to follow-up and are not representatively drawn from the target population because of structural sampling biases. A first bias is imparted by the cross-sectional sampling scheme, while a second bias is a result of stratified sampling. Estimation of the lifetime risk and related quantities in the presence of these biases has not been previously addressed in the literature. We develop and study nonparametric estimators of the lifetime risk, the remaining lifetime risk and cumulative risk at specific ages, accounting for these complexities. In particular, we reveal the fact that estimation of the lifetime risk is invariant to stratification by current age at sampling. We present simulation results validating our methodology, and provide novel facts about the epidemiology of dementia in Canada using data from the Canadian Study of Health and Aging. PMID:26139951

  14. Declines in Strength and Mortality Risk Among Older Mexican Americans: Joint Modeling of Survival and Longitudinal Data.

    PubMed

    Peterson, Mark D; Zhang, Peng; Duchowny, Kate A; Markides, Kyriakos S; Ottenbacher, Kenneth J; Snih, Soham Al

    2016-12-01

    Grip strength is a noninvasive method of risk stratification; however, the association between changes in strength and mortality is unknown. The purposes of this study were to examine the association between grip strength and mortality among older Mexican Americans and to determine the ability of changes in strength to predict mortality. Longitudinal data were included from 3,050 participants in the Hispanic Established Population for the Epidemiological Study of the Elderly. Strength was assessed using a hand-held dynamometer and normalized to body mass. Conditional inference tree analyses were used to identify sex- and age-specific weakness thresholds, and the Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to determine survival estimates across various strata. We also evaluated survival with traditional Cox proportional hazard regression for baseline strength, as well as with joint modeling of survival and longitudinal strength change trajectories. Survival estimates were lower among women who were weak at baseline for only 65- to 74-year-olds (11.93 vs 16.69 years). Survival estimates were also lower among men who were weak at baseline for only ≥75-year-olds (5.80 vs 7.39 years). Lower strength at baseline (per 0.1 decrement) was significantly associated with mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01-1.19) for women only. There was a strong independent, longitudinal association between strength decline and early mortality, such that each 0.10 decrease in strength, within participants over time, resulted in a HR of 1.12 (95% CI: 1.00-1.25) for women and a HR of 1.15 (95% CI: 1.04-1.28) for men. Longitudinal declines in strength are significantly associated with all-cause mortality in older Mexican Americans. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. Background level of risk and the survival of predator-naive prey: can neophobia compensate for predator naivety in juvenile coral reef fishes?

    PubMed

    Ferrari, Maud C O; McCormick, Mark I; Meekan, Mark G; Chivers, Douglas P

    2015-01-22

    Neophobia--the generalized fear response to novel stimuli--provides the first potential strategy that predator-naive prey may use to survive initial predator encounters. This phenotype appears to be highly plastic and present in individuals experiencing high-risk environments, but rarer in those experiencing low-risk environments. Despite the appeal of this strategy as a 'solution' for prey naivety, we lack evidence that this strategy provides any fitness benefit to prey. Here, we compare the relative effect of environmental risk (high versus low) and predator-recognition training (predator-naive versus predator-experienced individuals) on the survival of juvenile fish in the wild. We found that juveniles raised in high-risk conditions survived better than those raised in low-risk conditions, providing the first empirical evidence that environmental risk, in the absence of any predator-specific information, affects the way naive prey survive in a novel environment. Both risk level and experience affected survival; however, the two factors did not interact, indicating that the information provided by both factors did not interfere or enhance each other. From a mechanistic viewpoint, this indicates that the combination of the two factors may increase the intensity, and hence efficacy, of prey evasion strategies, or that both factors provide qualitatively separate benefits that would result in an additive survival success.

  16. Cumulative Risk for Early Sexual Initiation among American Indian Youth: A Discrete-Time Survival Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mitchell, Christina M.; Whitesell, Nancy Rumbaugh; Spicer, Paul; Beals, Janette; Kaufman, Carol E.

    2007-01-01

    Approximately 3 million teens are diagnosed with a sexually transmitted disease (STD) annually; STDs rates for American Indian young adults are among the highest of any racial/ethnic group. An important risk factor for STDs is early initiation of sex. In this study, we examined risk for early initiation with 474 American Indian youth ages 14-18,…

  17. Cumulative Risk for Early Sexual Initiation among American Indian Youth: A Discrete-Time Survival Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mitchell, Christina M.; Whitesell, Nancy Rumbaugh; Spicer, Paul; Beals, Janette; Kaufman, Carol E.

    2007-01-01

    Approximately 3 million teens are diagnosed with a sexually transmitted disease (STD) annually; STDs rates for American Indian young adults are among the highest of any racial/ethnic group. An important risk factor for STDs is early initiation of sex. In this study, we examined risk for early initiation with 474 American Indian youth ages 14-18,…

  18. Association of GSTO1 and GSTO2 Polymorphism with Risk of End-Stage Renal Disease Development and Patient Survival

    PubMed Central

    Cimbaljevic, Slavica; Suvakov, Sonja; Matic, Marija; Pljesa-Ercegovac, Marija; Pekmezovic, Tatjana; Radic, Tanja; Coric, Vesna; Damjanovic, Tatjana; Dimkovic, Nada; Markovic, Rodoljub; Savic-Radojevic, Ana

    2016-01-01

    Summary Background Oxidative stress in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) is associated with long-term cardiovascular complications. The cytosolic family of glutathione S-transferases (GSTs) is involved in the detoxication of various toxic compounds and antioxidant protection. GST omega class members, GSTO1 and GSTO2 possess, unlike other GSTs, dehydroascorbate reductase and deglutathionylation activities. The aim of this study was to clarify the role of genetic polymorphisms of GSTO1 (rs4925) and GSTO2 (rs156697) as risk determinants for ESRD development, as well as in the survival of these patients. Methods A total of 199 patients and 199 healthy subjects were included in the study and genotyped for both GSTO1 and GSTO2 polymorphism. Protein thiol and carbonyl groups as markers of protein oxidative damage were determined spectrophotometrically. Cox proportional hazard model and Kaplan-Meier analysis were performed to investigate the role of GSTO1 and GSTO2 genetic polymorphism on mortality of ESRD patients during the follow-up period (36 month). Results Individuals carrying the variant GSTO2 GG genotype were at 2.45-fold higher risk of ESRD development compared to the wild type GSTO2 AA genotype (OR=2.45; 95%CI=1.18–5.07; p=0.016). The results of GSTO1/ GSTO2 haplotype analysis showed that the haplotype combination of GSTO1 (*A)/GSTO2 (*A) (GSTO1 variant/GSTO2 wild type allele) was protective for ESRD (OR=0.23 95%CI=0.12-0.44, p=0.001). Patients carrying at least one GSTO1 reference allele have shorter mean overall (Log rank=2.844, p =0.241) and cardiovascular survival probability (Log rank=4.211, p=0.122). Conclusions GSTO polymorphisms have been shown to act as significant markers in assessing the risk of ESRD development and patients’ survival. PMID:28356881

  19. Association of GSTO1 and GSTO2 Polymorphism with Risk of End-Stage Renal Disease Development and Patient Survival.

    PubMed

    Cimbaljevic, Slavica; Suvakov, Sonja; Matic, Marija; Pljesa-Ercegovac, Marija; Pekmezovic, Tatjana; Radic, Tanja; Coric, Vesna; Damjanovic, Tatjana; Dimkovic, Nada; Markovic, Rodoljub; Savic-Radojevic, Ana; Simic, Tatjana

    2016-09-01

    Oxidative stress in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) is associated with long-term cardiovascular complications. The cytosolic family of glutathione S-transferases (GSTs) is involved in the detoxication of various toxic compounds and antioxidant protection. GST omega class members, GSTO1 and GSTO2 possess, unlike other GSTs, dehydroascorbate reductase and deglutathionylation activities. The aim of this study was to clarify the role of genetic polymorphisms of GSTO1 (rs4925) and GSTO2 (rs156697) as risk determinants for ESRD development, as well as in the survival of these patients. A total of 199 patients and 199 healthy subjects were included in the study and genotyped for both GSTO1 and GSTO2 polymorphism. Protein thiol and carbonyl groups as markers of protein oxidative damage were determined spectrophotometrically. Cox proportional hazard model and Kaplan-Meier analysis were performed to investigate the role of GSTO1 and GSTO2 genetic polymorphism on mortality of ESRD patients during the follow-up period (36 month). Individuals carrying the variant GSTO2 GG genotype were at 2.45-fold higher risk of ESRD development compared to the wild type GSTO2 AA genotype (OR=2.45; 95%CI=1.18-5.07; p=0.016). The results of GSTO1/GSTO2 haplotype analysis showed that the haplotype combination of GSTO1 (*A)/GSTO2 (*A) (GSTO1 variant/GSTO2 wild type allele) was protective for ESRD (OR=0.23 95%CI=0.12-0.44, p=0.001). Patients carrying at least one GSTO1 reference allele have shorter mean overall (Log rank=2.844, p =0.241) and cardiovascular survival probability (Log rank=4.211, p=0.122). GSTO polymorphisms have been shown to act as significant markers in assessing the risk of ESRD development and patients' survival.

  20. Protective and Risk Factors for 5-Year Survival in the Oldest Veterans: Data from the Veterans Health Administration.

    PubMed

    Cho, Jinmyoung; Copeland, Laurel A; Stock, Eileen M; Zeber, John E; Restrepo, Marcos I; MacCarthy, Andrea A; Ory, Marcia G; Smith, Paul A; Stevens, Alan B

    2016-06-01

    To characterize physical and mental diseases and use of healthcare services and identify factors associated with mortality in the oldest individuals using the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). Retrospective study with 5-year survival follow-up. VHA, system-wide. Veterans using the VHA aged 80 and older as of October 2008 (N = 721,588: n = 665,249 aged 80-89, n = 56,118 aged 90-99, n = 221 aged 100-115). Demographic characteristics, physical and mental diseases, healthcare services, and 5-year survival were measured. Accelerated failure time models identified protective and risk factors associated with mortality according to age group. During 5 years of follow-up, 44% of participants died (survival rate: 59% aged 80-89, 32% aged 90-99, 15% aged ≥100). In the multivariable model, protective effects for veterans aged 80-99 were female sex, minority race or ethnicity, being married, having certain physical and mental diagnoses (hypertension, cataract, dyslipidemia, posttraumatic stress disorder, bipolar disorder), having urgent care visits, having invasive surgery, and having few (1-3) prescriptions. Risk factors were lower VHA priority status, physical and mental conditions (diabetes mellitus, anemia, congestive heart failure, dementia, anxiety, depression, smoking, substance abuse disorder), hospital admission, and nursing home care. For those aged 100 and older, being married, smoking, hospital admission, nursing home care, invasive surgery, and prescription use were significant risk factors; only emergency department (ED) use was protective. Although the data are limited to VHA care (thus missing Medicare services), this study shows that many veterans served by the VHA live to advanced old age despite multiple chronic conditions. Further study is needed to determine whether a comprehensive, coordinated care system like VHA is associated with greater longevity for very old persons. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The

  1. Personalized risk prediction for event-free survival at 24 months in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

    PubMed Central

    Maurer, Matthew J.; Jais, Jean-Philippe; Ghesquières, Hervé; Witzig, Thomas E.; Hong, Fangxin; Haioun, Corinne; Thompson, Carrie A.; Thieblemont, Catherine; Micallef, Ivana N.; Porrata, Luis F.; Ribrag, Vincent; Nowakowski, Gregorz S.; Casanovas, Olivier; Bologna, Serge; Morschhauser, Franck; Morrison, Vicki A.; Peterson, Bruce A.; Macon, William R.; Copie-Bergman, Christiane; Feldman, Andrew L.; Syrbu, Sergei I.; Kurtin, Paul J.; Gascoyne, Randy D.; Li, Hailun; Allmer, Cristine; Kahl, Brad S.; Ansell, Stephen M.; Slager, Susan L.; Link, Brian K.; Salles, Gilles; Habermann, Thomas M.; Tilly, Hervé; Cerhan, James R.

    2016-01-01

    We recently defined event-free survival at 24 months (EFS24) as a clinically relevant outcome for patients with DLBCL. Patients who fail EFS24 have very poor overall survival, while those who achieve EFS24 have a subsequent overall survival equivalent to that of the age- and sex-matched general population. Here, we develop and validate a clinical risk calculator (IPI24) for EFS24. Model building was performed on a discovery dataset of 1,348 patients with DLBCL and treated with anthracycline-based immunochemotherapy. A multivariable model containing age, Ann Arbor stage, normalized serum LDH, ALC, ECOG performance status, bulky disease, and sex was identified. The model was then applied to an independent validation dataset of 1,177 DLBCL patients. The IPI24 score estimates the probability of failing to achieve the EFS24 endpoint for an individual patient. The IPI24 model showed superior discriminatory ability (c-statistic = 0.671) in the validation dataset compared to the IPI (c-statistic = 0.649) or the NCCN-IPI (c-statistic = 0.657). After recalibration of the model on the combined dataset, the median predicted probability of failing to achieve EFS24 was 36% (range, 12–88%), and the IPI24 showed an EFS24 gradient in all IPI groups. The IPI24 also identified a significant percentage of patients with high risk disease, with over 20% of patients having a 50% or higher risk of failing to achieve EFS24. The IPI24 provides an individual patient level probability of achieving the clinically relevant EFS24 endpoint. It can be used via electronic apps. PMID:26492520

  2. [Primary and secondary cardiovascular prevention results in patients with stroke: relapse risk and associated survival (Ebrictus study)].

    PubMed

    Clua-Espuny, Josep Ll; Piñol-Moreso, Josep Ll; Gil-Guillén, Vicente F; Orozco-Beltrán, Domingo; Panisello-Tafalla, Anna; Lucas-Noll, Jorgina; Queralt-Tomás, M Lluïssa; Pla-Farnós, Roger

    2012-01-16

    The prevalence and cardiovascular risk factors control (CVRF) are determining to suffer a stroke and its relapse which arise the mortality and disability. To estimate the incidence of the first episode of ictus and describe the results in primary and secondary cardiovascular prevention. Observational and prospective study of a fix cohort of 130,649 people, 15-90-year-old assigned to participants centers between 01/04/2006 and 31/03/2008. Community based register. Analyses were performed with the use of time-to-event methods, included Cox's multivariate on survival, risk of it's relapse; the CVRF diagnosed and it's relative risk (RR); cardiovascular risk. 553 patients were enrolled (48,8% female), average age 73.3 ± 11.6 years with the first episode of stroke. After the episode, the hypertension (74.9% vs 88.7%), atrial fibrillation (9.9% vs 16%) and dislipemia (37.8% vs 49.8%) increased significantly as well its control. The 47% (95% CI = 42.8-51.2) of the cases had high risk of relapsing. In the 15.7% of the patients happened relapse of cardiovascular event, 48.3% of which were stroke. The main predictors variables were history of recurrent cardiovascular event (RR = 6.7; 95% CI = 2.2-21.7) and the aging (RR = 1,08; 95% CI = 1.01-1.2). The cardiovascular secondary prevention seems to be more effective both in CVRF's detection and its control and is extremely important to get better results of survival.

  3. Pathway-based identification of a smoking associated 6-gene signature predictive of lung cancer risk and survival

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Nancy Lan; Wan, Ying-Wooi

    2012-01-01

    Objective Smoking is a prominent risk factor for lung cancer. However, it is not an established prognostic factor for lung cancer in clinics. To date, no gene test is available for diagnostic screening of lung cancer risk or prognostication of clinical outcome in smokers. This study sought to identify a smoking associated gene signature in order to provide a more precise diagnosis and prognosis of lung cancer in smokers. Methods and materials An implication network based methodology was used to identify biomarkers by modeling crosstalk with major lung cancer signaling pathways. Specifically, the methodology contains the following steps: 1) identifying genes significantly associated with lung cancer survival; 2) selecting candidate genes which are differentially expressed in smokers versus non-smokers from the survival genes identified in Step 1; 3) from these candidate genes, constructing gene coexpression networks based on prediction logic for the smoker group and the non-smoker group, respectively; 4) identifying smoking-mediated differential components, i.e., the unique gene coexpression patterns specific to each group; and 5) from the differential components, identifying genes directly co-expressed with major lung cancer signaling hallmarks. Results A smoking-associated 6-gene signature was identified for prognosis of lung cancer from a training cohort (n=256). The 6-gene signature could separate lung cancer patients into two risk groups with distinct post-operative survival (log-rank P < 0.04, Kaplan-Meier analyses) in three independent cohorts (n=427). The expression-defined prognostic prediction is strongly related to smoking association and smoking cessation (P < 0.02; Pearson’s Chi-squared tests). The 6-gene signature is an accurate prognostic factor (hazard ratio = 1.89, 95% CI: [1.04, 3.43]) compared to common clinical covariates in multivariate Cox analysis. The 6-gene signature also provides an accurate diagnosis of lung cancer with an overall

  4. Negotiating competency, professionalism and risk: the integration of complementary and alternative medicine by nurses and midwives in NHS hospitals.

    PubMed

    Cant, Sarah; Watts, Peter; Ruston, Annmarie

    2011-02-01

    This qualitative interview study examined the use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) by nurses and midwives in NHS hospital settings in 2008 in the UK. It showed that the groundswell of interest in CAM in the 1990s had diminished by this time due to changes to policy and funding, and increasingly stringent clinical governance. Nevertheless, CAM provided an opportunity for committed and self-motivated practitioners to extend their therapeutic repertoire and develop affective dimensions of practice. However, the integration of CAM did not afford the autonomy, status and material gains traditionally associated with a collective professional project. In practice, occupational strategies were individualistic, and grounded in the assertion of competency through expressions of professionalism rather than the credentialism which underpins classic professionalisation. Central to these strategies was CAM related risk, which became a means by which to claim occupational space. However, the extent to which the adoption of CAM enhanced the nurses' and midwives' roles was limited by traditional medical authority; the uncertain status of CAM knowledge; and the absence of collective strategies - which together often left practitioners in a position of vulnerability.

  5. AAOHN Competencies.

    PubMed

    2015-11-01

    The AAOHN Competency document is one of the core documents that define occupational health nursing practice. This article provides a description of the process used to update the competencies, as well as a description of the new competencies.

  6. Prostate cancer: net survival and cause-specific survival rates after multiple imputation.

    PubMed

    Morisot, Adeline; Bessaoud, Faïza; Landais, Paul; Rébillard, Xavier; Trétarre, Brigitte; Daurès, Jean-Pierre

    2015-07-28

    Estimations of survival rates are diverse and the choice of the appropriate method depends on the context. Given the increasing interest in multiple imputation methods, we explored the interest of a multiple imputation approach in the estimation of cause-specific survival, when a subset of causes of death was observed. By using European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC), 20 multiply imputed datasets were created and analyzed with a Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equation (MICE) algorithm. Then, cause-specific survival was estimated on each dataset with two methods: Kaplan-Meier and competing risks. The two pooled cause-specific survival and confidence intervals were obtained using Rubin's rules after complementary log-log transformation. Net survival was estimated using Pohar-Perme's estimator and was compared to pooled cause-specific survival. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was performed to test the robustness of our constructed multiple imputation model. Cause-specific survival performed better than net survival, since this latter exceeded 100 % for almost the first 2 years of follow-up and after 9 years whereas the cause-specific survival decreased slowly and than stabilized at around 94 % at 9 years. Sensibility study results were satisfactory. On our basis of prostate cancer data, the results obtained by cause-specific survival after multiple imputation appeared to be better and more realistic than those obtained using net survival.

  7. Sample size calculation in survival trials accounting for time-varying relationship between noncompliance and risk of outcome event.

    PubMed

    Li, Bingbing; Grambsch, Patricia

    2006-01-01

    Most methods of sample size calculations for survival trials adjust the estimated outcome event rates for noncompliance based on the assumption that non-compliance is independent of the risk of the outcome event although there has been published evidence that noncompliers are often at a higher risk than compliers. More recent work has started to consider the situations of informative noncompliance and different risks for noncompliers. However, the possibility of a time-varying association between noncompliance and risk has been ignored. Our analysis indicated a strong time-varying relationship between noncompliance defined as permanent discontinuation of study treatments and risk of the outcome event in the CONVINCE trial. The purpose of this research is to develop methods for the log-rank sample size calculations for two-arm clinical trials that allow for the relationship between risk and noncompliance to vary over time and to study how sample size requirements vary with different patterns of the time relationship. The method developed takes Lakatos' Markov chain approach as a basis, modifying it to incorporate time dynamics, and emphasizing permanent discontinuation of study medication as the form of noncompliance to be considered. Results with our method show that sample size depends on the relative rates of noncompliance in the two arms, the hazard for the outcome event following non-compliance, whether it involves switching to the hazard of the opposite arm or is common to both arms, and whether noncompliance occurs early or late in the trial. These factors interact with each other in complex ways, precluding simple summaries. This research focuses on two-arm clinical trials with time to event as primary outcome measure. The method developed is not directly applicable to trials with more complicated designs and/or trials with other types of primary outcome. The pattern of the relationship between noncompliance and risk can have a dramatic impact on the sample

  8. Acetabular revision with impaction bone grafting and a cemented polyethylene acetabular component: comparison of the Kaplan-Meier analysis to the competing risk analysis in 62 revisions with 25 to 30 years follow-up.

    PubMed

    Te Stroet, M A J; Keurentjes, J C; Rijnen, W H C; Gardeniers, J W M; Verdonschot, N; Slooff, T J J H; Schreurs, B W

    2015-10-01

    We present the results of 62 consecutive acetabular revisions using impaction bone grafting and a cemented polyethylene acetabular component in 58 patients (13 men and 45 women) after a mean follow-up of 27 years (25 to 30). All patients were prospectively followed. The mean age at revision was 59.2 years (23 to 82). We performed Kaplan-Meier (KM) analysis and also a Competing Risk (CR) analysis because with long-term follow-up, the presence of a competing event (i.e. death) prevents the occurrence of the endpoint of re-revision. A total of 48 patients (52 hips) had died or had been re-revised at final review in March 2011. None of the deaths were related to the surgery. The mean Harris hip score of the ten surviving hips in ten patients was 76 points (45 to 99). The KM survivorship at 25 years for the endpoint 're-revision for any reason' was 58.0% (95% confidence interval (CI) 38 to 73) and for 're-revision for aseptic loosening' 72.1% (95% CI 51 to 85). With the CR analysis we calculated the KM analysis overestimates the failure rate with respectively 74% and 93% for these endpoints. The current study shows that acetabular impaction bone grafting revisions provide good clinical results at over 25 years.

  9. Survival benefit in women with BRCA1 mutation or familial risk in the MRI screening study (MRISC).

    PubMed

    Saadatmand, Sepideh; Obdeijn, Inge-Marie; Rutgers, Emiel J; Oosterwijk, Jan C; Tollenaar, Rob A; Woldringh, Gwendolyn H; Bergers, Elisabeth; Verhoef, Cornelis; Heijnsdijk, Eveline A; Hooning, Maartje J; de Koning, Harry J; Tilanus-Linthorst, Madeleine M

    2015-10-01

    Adding MRI to annual mammography screening improves early breast cancer detection in women with familial risk or BRCA1/2 mutation, but breast cancer specific metastasis free survival (MFS) remains unknown. We compared MFS of patients from the largest prospective MRI Screening Study (MRISC) with 1:1 matched controls. Controls, unscreened if<50 years, and screened with biennial mammography if ≥50 years, were matched on risk category (BRCA1, BRCA2, familial risk), year and age of diagnosis. Of 2,308 MRISC participants, breast cancer was detected in 93 (97 breast cancers), who received MRI <2 years before breast cancer diagnosis; 33 BRCA1 mutation carriers, 18 BRCA2 mutation carriers, and 42 with familial risk. MRISC patients had smaller (87% vs. 52% risk (log-rank p = 0.024, HR: 0.21, 95% CI 0.04-0.95), and in BRCA1 mutation carriers (log-rank p = 0.055, HR 0.30, 95% CI 0.08-1.13). MFS remained better in MRISC patients after lead time correction (log-rank p = 0.020, HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.18-0.90). Overall survival was non-significantly better in MRISC patients (log-rank p = 0.064, HR 0.51, CI 0.24-1.06). Annual screening with MRI and mammography improves metastasis free survival in women with BRCA1 mutation or familial predisposition.

  10. Intern Boot Camp: Feasibility and impact of a 1-hour session to ensure graduating medical student competency in falls risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Omlor, Rebecca L; Watkins, Franklin S; Lawlor, Janice S; Lovato, James F; Fino, Nora F; Atkinson, Hal H

    2017-01-01

    The authors evaluated the feasibility of a 1-hour session to ensure competency in gait and falls risk assessment for medical students at their institution. The session included a history and exam with faculty and staff as standardized patients, gait recognition videos, and case evaluation for falls risk assessment and prevention. Student perceptions were evaluated using a retrospective pre-post survey, scored on a 5-point Likert-type scale. Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were used to assess change and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used to analyze differences by residency choice. A range of five to 11 faculty and staff certified 238 medical students during eight 1-hour sessions. Overall self-perception of competence in falls risk assessment and prevention improved (p ≤ .001), and did not differ by residency choice, both before and after the training program (p = .73 and p = .25). Feedback was positive. This session is a feasible way to teach and assess the competency for falls risk assessment with modest time commitment.

  11. Conceptualization and Pilot Testing of a Core Competency-Based Training Workshop in Suicide Risk Assessment and Management: Notes From the Field.

    PubMed

    Cramer, Robert J; Bryson, Claire N; Eichorst, Morgam K; Keyes, Lee N; Ridge, Brittany E

    2017-03-01

    As professional psychology training programs and continuing education have moved toward competency based approaches, it has become equally important to develop uniform, evidence-based approaches for suicide risk assessment and management. The present article presents a workshop curriculum based on established core competencies in suicide risk assessment and management. Drawing on theories suicide risk formation, the workshop features an integration of didactic, process, and experiential components. We present pilot data from 2 small group workshops (n = 17): 1 from a clinical psychology doctoral program and 1 from a university counseling center. Workshop participation yielded increases in (a) the ability to recognize appropriate clinician responses to suicidal client statements, (b) self-perceptions of general capacity to interface with suicidal patients and mastery of the 10 core competencies, (c) factual knowledge concerning suicide risk assessment and management, and (d) the self-rated ability to assess and manage a suicidal patient. We discuss statistical and generalizability limitations as well as implications for future modification, implementation, and provision of this training method. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Risk of pneumonia and urinary tract infection within the first week after total hip arthroplasty and the impact on survival

    PubMed Central

    Glassou, Eva N; Hansen, Torben B; Pedersen, Alma B

    2017-01-01

    Background Pneumonia and urinary tract infections (UTIs) increase morbidity and mortality. There is little epidemiological evidence from large population-based studies on risk factors for these infections and subsequent mortality in total hip arthroplasty (THA) patients. Aim To examine the risk factors of postoperative pneumonia and UTI after THA and their impact on survival. Patients and methods We used the Danish Hip Arthroplasty Register to identify THAs due to osteoarthritis registered from 2000 to 2013. We collected data about comorbidities, mortality and infections in relation to primary hospitalization and potential predictive variables from administrative databases. Regression models were used to estimate associations between potential risk factors and infection, and subsequently, between infection and mortality. Results In total 84,812 THAs were included. The cumulative incidence of pneumonia and UTI within 7 days of the primary procedure were 0.21 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.18–0.25) and 0.29 (95% CI: 0.26–0.33), respectively. Patient-related risk factors for infection were being 80 years or older, gender and a comorbidity burden at time of surgery. The hazard ratio (HR) of dying within 90 days of the primary THA was 10.67 (95% CI: 5.79–19.57) compared to patients without pneumonia. For patients with UTIs, the HR was 1.64 (95% CI: 0.41–6.59) compared to those without a UTI. Conclusion Pneumonia was associated with an increased short-term risk of dying, despite adjustment for coexisting comorbidity and other potential confounders. Age, gender and comorbidity were the most important risk factors for pneumonia and UTIs. Individual initiatives to reduce the risk of pneumonia in select patient groups may be essential to the effort to optimize outcomes after a THA. PMID:28176979

  13. A refined risk score for acute GVHD that predicts response to initial therapy, survival and transplant-related mortality

    PubMed Central

    MacMillan, Margaret L.; Robin, Marie; Harris, Andrew C.; DeFor, Todd E.; Martin, Paul J.; Alousi, Amin; Ho, Vincent T.; Bolaños-Meade, Javier; Ferrara, James L.M.; Jones, Richard; Arora, Mukta; Blazar, Bruce R.; Holtan, Shernan G.; Jacobsohn, David; Pasquini, Marcelo; Socie, Gerard; Antin, Joseph H.; Levine, John E.; Weisdorf, Daniel J.

    2015-01-01

    To develop a novel acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) Risk Score, we examined the GVHD clinical stage and grade of 1723 patients at the onset of treatment with systemic steroids. Using clinical grouping, descriptive statistics and recursive partitioning, we identified poorly responsive, high-risk (HR) acute GVHD by the number of involved organs and severity of GVHD at onset. The overall response [(complete response/partial response (CR/PR)] rate 28 days after initiation of steroid therapy for acute GVHD was lower in the 269 patients with HR-GVHD than in the 1454 patients with standard risk (SR)-GVHD [44% (95% CI 38–50%) vs. 68% (95% CI 66–70%), p<0.001. Patients with HR-GVHD were less likely to respond at day 28 [odds ratio (OR), 0.3, 95% CI 0.2–0.4, p<0.001], and had higher risks of mortality [relative risk (RR) 2.1, 95% CI 1.7–2.6, P<0.001] and transplant-related mortality (RR 2.5, 95% CI 2.0–3.2%, p<0.001) compared to patients with SR-GVHD. This refined definition of acute GVHD risk is a better predictor of response, survival and transplant-related mortality than other published acute GVHD risk scores. Patients with HR-GVHD are candidates for studies investigating new treatment approaches. Likewise, patients with SR-GVHD are candidates for studies investigating less toxic therapy. PMID:25585275

  14. Impact of High Risk for Obstructive Sleep Apnea on Survival after Acute Coronary Syndrome: Insights from the ERICO Registry

    PubMed Central

    Maia, Flavia C; Goulart, Alessandra C.; Drager, Luciano F.; Staniak, Henrique L.; Santos, Itamar de Souza; Lotufo, Paulo Andrade; Bensenor, Isabela M.

    2017-01-01

    Background Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a very often clinical condition that can be associated with high mortality risk, particularly in coronary heart disease (CHD). The diagnosis of OSA is not always accessible via the gold-standard method polysomnography. Objective To evaluate long-term influence of the high risk for OSA on fatal and non-fatal outcomes after acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in the Acute Coronary Syndrome Registry Strategy (ERICO) Study using the Berlin questionnaire as a surrogate. Methods Berlin questionnaire, a screening questionnaire for OSA, was applied in 639 cases of ACS 30 days after the index event. Cox regression proportional-hazards model was used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) of all-cause, cardiovascular and CHD (myocardial infarction) mortality, as well as, the combined endpoint of fatal or recurrent non-fatal CHD. Results The high-risk group for OSA had higher frequencies of previous personal/family history of CHD and diabetes, in addition to a poorer event-free survival, as compared to the low-risk group (p-log-rank=0.03). The HR for fatal or recurrent non-fatal CHD was 4.26 (95% confidence interval, 1.18 - 15.36) in patients at high risk for OSA compared to those at low risk for OSA after a 2.6-year mean follow-up. Conclusions Using Berlin questionnaire, we were able to identify high risk for OSA as an independent predictor of non-fatal reinfarction or CHD mortality in post-ACS individuals in a long-term follow-up. PMID:28146212

  15. Genetic variation in C-reactive protein (CRP) in relation to colon and rectal cancer risk and survival</