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Sample records for survival competing risks

  1. Random survival forests for competing risks

    PubMed Central

    Ishwaran, Hemant; Gerds, Thomas A.; Kogalur, Udaya B.; Moore, Richard D.; Gange, Stephen J.; Lau, Bryan M.

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a new approach to competing risks using random forests. Our method is fully non-parametric and can be used for selecting event-specific variables and for estimating the cumulative incidence function. We show that the method is highly effective for both prediction and variable selection in high-dimensional problems and in settings such as HIV/AIDS that involve many competing risks. PMID:24728979

  2. Survival analysis in the presence of competing risks

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Survival analysis in the presence of competing risks imposes additional challenges for clinical investigators in that hazard function (the rate) has no one-to-one link to the cumulative incidence function (CIF, the risk). CIF is of particular interest and can be estimated non-parametrically with the use cuminc() function. This function also allows for group comparison and visualization of estimated CIF. The effect of covariates on cause-specific hazard can be explored using conventional Cox proportional hazard model by treating competing events as censoring. However, the effect on hazard cannot be directly linked to the effect on CIF because there is no one-to-one correspondence between hazard and cumulative incidence. Fine-Gray model directly models the covariate effect on CIF and it reports subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR). However, SHR only provide information on the ordering of CIF curves at different levels of covariates, it has no practical interpretation as HR in the absence of competing risks. Fine-Gray model can be fit with crr() function shipped with the cmprsk package. Time-varying covariates are allowed in the crr() function, which is specified by cov2 and tf arguments. Predictions and visualization of CIF for subjects with given covariate values are allowed for crr object. Alternatively, competing risk models can be fit with riskRegression package by employing different link functions between covariates and outcomes. The assumption of proportionality can be checked by testing statistical significance of interaction terms involving failure time. Schoenfeld residuals provide another way to check model assumption. PMID:28251126

  3. A general joint model for longitudinal measurements and competing risks survival data with heterogeneous random effects

    PubMed Central

    Li, Gang; Elashoff, Robert M.; Pan, Jianxin

    2011-01-01

    This article studies a general joint model for longitudinal measurements and competing risks survival data. The model consists of a linear mixed effects sub-model for the longitudinal outcome, a proportional cause-specific hazards frailty sub-model for the competing risks survival data, and a regression sub-model for the variance–covariance matrix of the multivariate latent random effects based on a modified Cholesky decomposition. The model provides a useful approach to adjust for non-ignorable missing data due to dropout for the longitudinal outcome, enables analysis of the survival outcome with informative censoring and intermittently measured time-dependent covariates, as well as joint analysis of the longitudinal and survival outcomes. Unlike previously studied joint models, our model allows for heterogeneous random covariance matrices. It also offers a framework to assess the homogeneous covariance assumption of existing joint models. A Bayesian MCMC procedure is developed for parameter estimation and inference. Its performances and frequentist properties are investigated using simulations. A real data example is used to illustrate the usefulness of the approach. PMID:20549344

  4. Modelling childhood caries using parametric competing risks survival analysis methods for clustered data.

    PubMed

    Stephenson, J; Chadwick, B L; Playle, R A; Treasure, E T

    2010-01-01

    Caries in primary teeth is an ongoing issue in children's dental health. Its quantification is affected by clustering of data within children and the concurrent risk of exfoliation of primary teeth. This analysis of caries data of 103,776 primary molar tooth surfaces from a cohort study of 2,654 British children aged 4-5 years at baseline applied multilevel competing risks survival analysis methodology to identify factors significantly associated with caries occurrence in primary tooth surfaces in the presence of the concurrent risk of exfoliation, and assessed the effect of exfoliation on caries development. Multivariate multilevel parametric survival models were applied at surface level to the analysis of the sound-carious and sound-exfoliation transitions to which primary tooth surfaces are subject. Socio-economic class, fluoridation status and surface type were found to be the strongest predictors of primary caries, with the highest rates of occurrence and lowest median survival times associated with occlusal surfaces of children from poor socio-economic class living in non-fluoridated areas. The concurrent risk of exfoliation was shown to reduce the distinction in survival experience between different types of surfaces, and between surfaces of teeth from children of different socio-economic class or fluoridation status. Clustering of data had little effect on inferences of parameter significance.

  5. A computer program for the generalized chi-square analysis of competing risks grouped survival data (CRISCAT).

    PubMed

    Stanish, W M; Chi, G Y; Johnson, W D; Koch, G G; Landis, J R; Liu-Chi, S

    1978-09-01

    CRISCAT is a computer program for the analysis of grouped survival data with competing risks via weighted least squares methods. Competing risks adjustments are obtained from general matrix operations using many of the strategies employed in a previously developed program (GENCAT) for multivariate categorical data. CRISCAT computes survival rates at several time points for multiple causes of failure, where each rate is adjusted for other causes in the sense that failure due to thes other causes has been eliminated as a risk. The program can generate functions of the adjusted survival rates, to which asymptotic regression models may be fit. CRISCAT yields test statistics for hypotheses involving either these functions or estimated model parameters. Thus, this computational algorithm links competing risks theory to linear models methods for contingency table analysis and provides a unified approach to estimation and hypothesis testing of functions involving competing risks adjusted rates.

  6. Evaluation of prognostic factors effect on survival time in patients with colorectal cancer, based on Weibull Competing-Risks Model

    PubMed Central

    Moamer, Soraya; Baghestani, Ahmadreza; Pourhoseingholi, Mohamad Amin; Hajizadeh, Nastaran; Ahmadi, Farzaneh; Norouzinia, Mohsen

    2017-01-01

    Aim: The aim of this study was to assess the association between survival of patients with colorectal cancer and prognostic factors in a competing risk parametric model using Weibull distribution. Background: The prognosis of colorectal cancer is relatively good in terms of survival time. In many prognostic studies, patients may be exposed to several types of competing events. These different causes of death are called competing risks. Methods: Data was recorded from 372 patients with colorectal cancer who registered in the Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences (Tehran, Iran) from 2004 to 2015 in a retrospective study. Analysis was performed using competing risks model and Weibull distribution. Software used for data analysis was R, and significance level was regarded as 0.05. Results: The result indicated that, at the end of follow-up, 111 (29.8%) deaths were from colorectal cancer and 14 (3.8%) deaths were due to other diseases. The average body mass index (BMI) was 24.61(SD 3.98). The mean survival time for a patient in 372 was 62.05(SD 48.78) month with median equals to 48 months. According to competing-risks method, only stageIII (HR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.246-2.315 ), stageIV( HR, 4.51; 95% CI,2.91-6.99 ) and BMI( HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.96-0.975) have a significant effect on patient’s survival time. Conclusion: This study indicated pathologic stage (III,IV) and BMI as the prognosis, using a Weibull model with competing risks analysis, while other models without the competing events lead to significant predictors which may be due to over-estimation.

  7. Meta-analysis for aggregated survival data with competing risks: a parametric approach using cumulative incidence functions.

    PubMed

    Bonofiglio, Federico; Beyersmann, Jan; Schumacher, Martin; Koller, Michael; Schwarzer, Guido

    2016-09-01

    Meta-analysis of a survival endpoint is typically based on the pooling of hazard ratios (HRs). If competing risks occur, the HRs may lose translation into changes of survival probability. The cumulative incidence functions (CIFs), the expected proportion of cause-specific events over time, re-connect the cause-specific hazards (CSHs) to the probability of each event type. We use CIF ratios to measure treatment effect on each event type. To retrieve information on aggregated, typically poorly reported, competing risks data, we assume constant CSHs. Next, we develop methods to pool CIF ratios across studies. The procedure computes pooled HRs alongside and checks the influence of follow-up time on the analysis. We apply the method to a medical example, showing that follow-up duration is relevant both for pooled cause-specific HRs and CIF ratios. Moreover, if all-cause hazard and follow-up time are large enough, CIF ratios may reveal additional information about the effect of treatment on the cumulative probability of each event type. Finally, to improve the usefulness of such analysis, better reporting of competing risks data is needed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. The application of cure models in the presence of competing risks: a tool for improved risk communication in population-based cancer patient survival.

    PubMed

    Eloranta, Sandra; Lambert, Paul C; Andersson, Therese M-L; Björkholm, Magnus; Dickman, Paul W

    2014-09-01

    Quantifying cancer patient survival from the perspective of cure is clinically relevant. However, most cure models estimate cure assuming no competing causes of death. We use a relative survival framework to demonstrate how flexible parametric cure models can be used in combination with competing-risks theory to incorporate noncancer deaths. Under a model that incorporates statistical cure, we present the probabilities that cancer patients (1) have died from their cancer, (2) have died from other causes, (3) will eventually die from their cancer, or (4) will eventually die from other causes, all as a function of time since diagnosis. We further demonstrate how conditional probabilities can be used to update the prognosis among survivors (eg, at 1 or 5 years after diagnosis) by summarizing the proportion of patients who will not die from their cancer. The proposed method is applied to Swedish population-based data for persons diagnosed with melanoma, colon cancer, or acute myeloid leukemia between 1973 and 2007.

  9. Proximal femoral replacement in the management of acute periprosthetic fractures of the hip: a competing risks survival analysis

    PubMed Central

    Colman, Matthew; Choi, Lisa; Chen, Antonia; Crossett, Lawrence; Tarkin, Ivan; McGough, Richard

    2014-01-01

    To examine the mortality and implant survivorship of proximal femoral replacement (PFR), revision total hip arthroplasty (REV) and open reduction internal fixation (ORIF) in the treatment of acute periprosthetic fractures of the proximal femur, we retrospectively reviewed 97 consecutive acute periprosthetic proximal femoral fractures from 2000–2010. Three groups were defined: PFR (n=21), REV (n=19), and ORIF (n=57). Outcome measures were all-cause mortality, implant failure, and reoperation. Competing Risks survival analysis of overall mortality during the mean 35-month follow-up showed no statistical difference between the three groups (p=0.65; 12 and 60 month mortality for PFR: 37%, 45%; REV: 16%, 46%; ORIF: 14%, 100%). Implant survival was worse for the PFR group (p=0.03, 12 and 60-month implant failure rate for PFR: 5%, 39%; REV: 7%, 7%; ORIF 2%, 2%). We conclude that PFR as compared with REV or ORIF may have worse medium-term implant survival, primarily due to instability and dislocation. PMID:23856062

  10. Proximal femoral replacement in the management of acute periprosthetic fractures of the hip: a competing risks survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Colman, Matthew; Choi, Lisa; Chen, Antonia; Crossett, Lawrence; Tarkin, Ivan; McGough, Richard

    2014-02-01

    To examine the mortality and implant survivorship of proximal femoral replacement (PFR), revision total hip arthroplasty (REV) and open reduction internal fixation (ORIF) in the treatment of acute periprosthetic fractures of the proximal femur, we retrospectively reviewed 97 consecutive acute periprosthetic proximal femoral fractures from 2000 to 2010. Three groups were defined: PFR (n=21), REV (n=19), and ORIF (n=57). Outcome measures were all-cause mortality, implant failure, and reoperation. Competing Risks survival analysis of overall mortality during the mean 35-month follow-up showed no statistical difference between the three groups (P=0.65; 12 and 60 month mortality for PFR: 37%, 45%; REV: 16%, 46%; ORIF: 14%, 100%). Implant survival was worse for the PFR group (P=0.03, 12 and 60-month implant failure rate for PFR: 5%, 39%; REV: 7%, 7%; ORIF 2%, 2%). We conclude that PFR as compared with REV or ORIF may have worse medium-term implant survival, primarily due to instability and dislocation.

  11. A competing risk survival analysis model to assess the efficacy of filling carious primary teeth.

    PubMed

    Stephenson, J; Chadwick, B L; Playle, R A; Treasure, E T

    2010-01-01

    In recent years a strategy of selective, symptom-based intervention of carious primary teeth has been developed amongst some British general dental practitioners. Practice-based studies appear to provide evidence that policies of restoration of symptomless carious primary teeth do not confer any significant benefits above those associated with non-restorative care. However, results from these studies contrast with those of many clinical trials and prospective studies of primary molar restorations. In the current investigation, cohort study data from 5,168 carious primary molar teeth from 2,654 British children aged 4-5 years at baseline, augmented with Dental Practice Board treatment data, was utilised to assess the effect of restorative treatment on the likelihood of carious teeth subsequently progressing to either exfoliation or extraction. The effect of demographic and tooth level covariates on the fate of these teeth was also assessed. Multivariate multilevel parametric survival models were applied to the analysis of the carious-exfoliation and carious-extraction transitions to which the teeth were subject, assuming an underlying data hierarchy with teeth nested within individuals. Time of occurrence of caries affected survival experience, with teeth in which caries occurred later in life being associated with higher survival rates to extraction. Amongst filled teeth, later fillings were also associated with higher survival rates to extraction. Demographic and tooth level variables had a limited effect on survival experience. Treatment was found to be significantly associated with survival with respect to extraction, with survival rates of over 80% at 14 years, double those of untreated teeth.

  12. Recursive Partitioning Method on Competing Risk Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Wei; Che, Jiahua; Kong, Qin

    2016-01-01

    In some cancer clinical studies, researchers have interests to explore the risk factors associated with competing risk outcomes such as recurrence-free survival. We develop a novel recursive partitioning framework on competing risk data for both prognostic and predictive model constructions. We define specific splitting rules, pruning algorithm, and final tree selection algorithm for the competing risk tree models. This methodology is quite flexible that it can corporate both semiparametric method using Cox proportional hazards model and parametric competing risk model. Both prognostic and predictive tree models are developed to adjust for potential confounding factors. Extensive simulations show that our methods have well-controlled type I error and robust power performance. Finally, we apply both Cox proportional hazards model and flexible parametric model for prognostic tree development on a retrospective clinical study on oropharyngeal cancer patients. PMID:27486300

  13. A missing data approach to semi-competing risks problems.

    PubMed

    Dignam, James J; Wieand, Kelly; Rathouz, Paul J

    2007-02-20

    For event time data involving multiple mutually exclusive competing causes of failure, classic competing risks results show that marginal survival distributions are not identifiable. In a related instance, one or more failure modes may be observed provided that the failure events occur in a specific order. In such situations, sometimes referred to as semi-competing risks problems, the observations may under realistic assumptions lend information about parameters of interest that would be nonidentifiable in the strict competing risks case. Here, we present an approach that makes use of partially observable multiple modes of failures to obtain an estimate of the marginal distribution of one event type that may occur prior to the occurrence of another event type or be precluded by it. We apply the proposed method to the problem of estimating the distribution of time to tumour recurrence at specific sites among breast cancer patients participating in randomized clinical trials.

  14. Familial Risk and Child Competence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sameroff, Arnold J.; Seifer, Ronald

    1983-01-01

    Examines components of familial risk in the context of a four-year longitudinal study of children with mentally ill mothers. Risk factors examined were parental mental health, social status, parental perspectives, and family stress. Interactions among risk factors were found to be complex and different for cognitive and social-emotional…

  15. Accounting for competing risks in randomized controlled trials: a review and recommendations for improvement

    PubMed Central

    Fine, Jason P.

    2017-01-01

    In studies with survival or time‐to‐event outcomes, a competing risk is an event whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the primary event of interest. Specialized statistical methods must be used to analyze survival data in the presence of competing risks. We conducted a review of randomized controlled trials with survival outcomes that were published in high‐impact general medical journals. Of 40 studies that we identified, 31 (77.5%) were potentially susceptible to competing risks. However, in the majority of these studies, the potential presence of competing risks was not accounted for in the statistical analyses that were described. Of the 31 studies potentially susceptible to competing risks, 24 (77.4%) reported the results of a Kaplan–Meier survival analysis, while only five (16.1%) reported using cumulative incidence functions to estimate the incidence of the outcome over time in the presence of competing risks. The former approach will tend to result in an overestimate of the incidence of the outcome over time, while the latter approach will result in unbiased estimation of the incidence of the primary outcome over time. We provide recommendations on the analysis and reporting of randomized controlled trials with survival outcomes in the presence of competing risks. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:28102550

  16. Calibrated predictions for multivariate competing risks models.

    PubMed

    Gorfine, Malka; Hsu, Li; Zucker, David M; Parmigiani, Giovanni

    2014-04-01

    Prediction models for time-to-event data play a prominent role in assessing the individual risk of a disease, such as cancer. Accurate disease prediction models provide an efficient tool for identifying individuals at high risk, and provide the groundwork for estimating the population burden and cost of disease and for developing patient care guidelines. We focus on risk prediction of a disease in which family history is an important risk factor that reflects inherited genetic susceptibility, shared environment, and common behavior patterns. In this work family history is accommodated using frailty models, with the main novel feature being allowing for competing risks, such as other diseases or mortality. We show through a simulation study that naively treating competing risks as independent right censoring events results in non-calibrated predictions, with the expected number of events overestimated. Discrimination performance is not affected by ignoring competing risks. Our proposed prediction methodologies correctly account for competing events, are very well calibrated, and easy to implement.

  17. Nonparametric Analysis of Bivariate Gap Time with Competing Risks

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Chiung-Yu; Wang, Chenguang; Wang, Mei-Cheng

    2016-01-01

    Summary This article considers nonparametric methods for studying recurrent disease and death with competing risks. We first point out that comparisons based on the well-known cumulative incidence function can be confounded by different prevalence rates of the competing events, and that comparisons of the conditional distribution of the survival time given the failure event type are more relevant for investigating the prognosis of different patterns of recurrence disease. We then propose nonparametric estimators for the conditional cumulative incidence function as well as the conditional bivariate cumulative incidence function for the bivariate gap times, that is, the time to disease recurrence and the residual lifetime after recurrence. To quantify the association between the two gap times in the competing risks setting, a modified Kendall’s tau statistic is proposed. The proposed estimators for the conditional bivariate cumulative incidence distribution and the association measure account for the induced dependent censoring for the second gap time. Uniform consistency and weak convergence of the proposed estimators are established. Hypothesis testing procedures for two-sample comparisons are discussed. Numerical simulation studies with practical sample sizes are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed nonparametric estimators and tests. An application to data from a pancreatic cancer study is presented to illustrate the methods developed in this article. PMID:26990686

  18. Competing events in patients with malignant disease who are at risk for recurrent venous thromboembolism.

    PubMed

    Parpia, S; Julian, J A; Thabane, L; Lee, A Y Y; Rickles, F R; Levine, M N

    2011-11-01

    Patients with malignant disease enrolled in trials of thrombotic disorders may experience competing events such as death. The occurrence of a competing event may prevent the thrombotic event from being observed. Standard survival analysis techniques ignore competing risks, resulting in possible bias and distorted inferences. To assess the impact of competing events on the results of a previously reported trial comparing low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) with oral anticoagulant (OAC) therapy for the prevention of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) in patients with advanced cancer, we compare the results from standard survival analysis with those from competing risk techniques which are based on the cumulative incidence function (CIF) and Gray's test. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimates the risk of recurrent VTE (17.2% in the OAC group and 8.7% in the LMWH group). Risk of recurrence using the CIF is 12.0% and 6.0% in the OAC and LMWH groups, respectively. Both the log-rank test (p=0.002) and Gray's test (p=0.006) suggest evidence in favor of LMWH. The overestimation of risk is 30% in each treatment group, resulting in a similar relative treatment effect; using the Cox model the hazard ratio (HR) is 0.48 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.30 to 0.78) and HR=0.47 (95% CI, 0.29 to 0.74) using the CIF model. Failing to account for competing risks may lead to incorrect interpretations of the probability of recurrent VTE. However, when the distribution of competing risks is similar within each treatment group, standard and competing risk methods yield comparable relative treatment effects.

  19. Cumulative Incidence Association Models for Bivariate Competing Risks Data.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Yu; Fine, Jason P

    2012-03-01

    Association models, like frailty and copula models, are frequently used to analyze clustered survival data and evaluate within-cluster associations. The assumption of noninformative censoring is commonly applied to these models, though it may not be true in many situations. In this paper, we consider bivariate competing risk data and focus on association models specified for the bivariate cumulative incidence function (CIF), a nonparametrically identifiable quantity. Copula models are proposed which relate the bivariate CIF to its corresponding univariate CIFs, similarly to independently right censored data, and accommodate frailty models for the bivariate CIF. Two estimating equations are developed to estimate the association parameter, permitting the univariate CIFs to be estimated either parametrically or nonparametrically. Goodness-of-fit tests are presented for formally evaluating the parametric models. Both estimators perform well with moderate sample sizes in simulation studies. The practical use of the methodology is illustrated in an analysis of dementia associations.

  20. Parametric Estimation in a Recurrent Competing Risks Model.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Laura L; Peña, Edsel A

    2013-01-01

    A resource-efficient approach to making inferences about the distributional properties of the failure times in a competing risks setting is presented. Efficiency is gained by observing recurrences of the competing risks over a random monitoring period. The resulting model is called the recurrent competing risks model (RCRM) and is coupled with two repair strategies whenever the system fails. Maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the marginal distribution functions associated with each of the competing risks and also of the system lifetime distribution function are presented. Estimators are derived under perfect and partial repair strategies. Consistency and asymptotic properties of the estimators are obtained. The estimation methods are applied to a data set of failures for cars under warranty. Simulation studies are used to ascertain the small sample properties and the efficiency gains of the resulting estimators.

  1. The Functional Competency of Elderly at Risk.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stanley, Barbara; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Investigated functional competency to make informed decisions by elderly depressed and cognitively impaired psychiatric patients. Although depressed elderly patients did not appear to experience problems in informed consent process, cognitively impaired patients had difficulty understanding important aspects of consent information. Suggests that…

  2. Ohio Financial Services and Risk Management. Technical Competency Profile (TCP).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ray, Gayl M.; Wilson, Nick; Mangini, Rick

    This document describes the essential competencies from secondary through post-secondary associate degree programs for a career in financial services and risk management. Ohio College Tech Prep Program standards are described, and a key to profile codes is provided. Sample occupations in this career area, such as financial accountant, loan…

  3. Assessing Talking and Writing: Linguistic Competence for Students at Risk.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Montgomery, Judy K

    1998-01-01

    Suggests coordinated assessment and intervention strategies that speech language pathologists, special educators, and general educators, in co-teaching or inclusive settings, can use to assist at-risk students to achieve both oral and written linguistic competence. Proposes a strong link between talking and writing in the normal developmental…

  4. Decision-making competence predicts domain-specific risk attitudes

    PubMed Central

    Weller, Joshua A.; Ceschi, Andrea; Randolph, Caleb

    2015-01-01

    Decision-making competence (DMC) reflects individual differences in rational responding across several classic behavioral decision-making tasks. Although it has been associated with real-world risk behavior, less is known about the degree to which DMC contributes to specific components of risk attitudes. Utilizing a psychological risk-return framework, we examined the associations between risk attitudes and DMC. Italian community residents (n = 804) completed an online DMC measure, using a subset of the original Adult-DMC battery. Participants also completed a self-reported risk attitude measure for three components of risk attitudes (risk-taking, risk perceptions, and expected benefits) across six risk domains. Overall, greater performance on the DMC component scales were inversely, albeit modestly, associated with risk-taking tendencies. Structural equation modeling results revealed that DMC was associated with lower perceived expected benefits for all domains. In contrast, its association with perceived risks was more domain-specific. These analyses also revealed stronger indirect effects for the DMC → expected benefits → risk-taking path than the DMC → perceived riskrisk-taking path, especially for behaviors that may be considered more maladaptive in nature. These results suggest that DMC performance differentially impacts specific components of risk attitudes, and may be more strongly related to the evaluation of expected value of a specific behavior. PMID:26029128

  5. Societal perspectives on risk awareness and risk competence

    PubMed Central

    Koller, Michael; Hoffrage, Ulrich

    2015-01-01

    Medical risks can be assessed by objectifiable therapeutic features; however, these risks are also characterised to a considerable degree by individual and social values. People tend to strive towards both freedom as well as safety; in a medical context, these two aims are taken into account by shared decision-making models and by stricter regulations in the pharmaceutical sector. Media reports on medical risks are caught between providing information and economic interests, and this conflict particularly complicates rational discussions about unexpected risks (for instance, in the field of natural medicine). Thus, it is necessary to create the type of information culture which allows differentiating between real and less pronounced risks. PMID:26195921

  6. Societal perspectives on risk awareness and risk competence.

    PubMed

    Koller, Michael; Hoffrage, Ulrich

    2015-01-01

    Medical risks can be assessed by objectifiable therapeutic features; however, these risks are also characterised to a considerable degree by individual and social values. People tend to strive towards both freedom as well as safety; in a medical context, these two aims are taken into account by shared decision-making models and by stricter regulations in the pharmaceutical sector. Media reports on medical risks are caught between providing information and economic interests, and this conflict particularly complicates rational discussions about unexpected risks (for instance, in the field of natural medicine). Thus, it is necessary to create the type of information culture which allows differentiating between real and less pronounced risks.

  7. A review of methods to estimate cause-specific mortality in presence of competing risks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Heisey, Dennis M.; Patterson, Brent R.

    2006-01-01

    Estimating cause-specific mortality is often of central importance for understanding the dynamics of wildlife populations. Despite such importance, methodology for estimating and analyzing cause-specific mortality has received little attention in wildlife ecology during the past 20 years. The issue of analyzing cause-specific, mutually exclusive events in time is not unique to wildlife. In fact, this general problem has received substantial attention in human biomedical applications within the context of biostatistical survival analysis. Here, we consider cause-specific mortality from a modern biostatistical perspective. This requires carefully defining what we mean by cause-specific mortality and then providing an appropriate hazard-based representation as a competing risks problem. This leads to the general solution of cause-specific mortality as the cumulative incidence function (CIF). We describe the appropriate generalization of the fully nonparametric staggered-entry Kaplan–Meier survival estimator to cause-specific mortality via the nonparametric CIF estimator (NPCIFE), which in many situations offers an attractive alternative to the Heisey–Fuller estimator. An advantage of the NPCIFE is that it lends itself readily to risk factors analysis with standard software for Cox proportional hazards model. The competing risks–based approach also clarifies issues regarding another intuitive but erroneous "cause-specific mortality" estimator based on the Kaplan–Meier survival estimator and commonly seen in the life sciences literature.

  8. Death Does Matter--Cancer Risk in Patients With End-Stage Renal Disease: A Nationwide Population-Based Study With Competing Risk Analyses.

    PubMed

    Weng, Shih-Feng; Chiu, Yu-Hsien; Jan, Ren-Long; Chen, Yi-Chen; Chien, Chih-Chiang; Wang, Jhi-Joung; Chu, Chin-Chen

    2016-01-01

    Patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) have a high mortality rate. We hypothesized that not accounting for death as a competing risk overestimates the event rate caused by ESRD. Thus, we examined the cancer risk for patients with ESRD (ESRD) after death as a competing risk event had been adjusted for. Patients with newly diagnosed ESRD (n = 64,299) between 1999 and 2007, together with age- and sex-matched controls without ESRD (ESRD) (n = 128,592) were enrolled (1:2). In a Cox proportional hazards model that included death as a competing risk, ESRD patients in Taiwan had a lower overall incidence (subdistribution hazard ratio [sdHR] = 1.29) of cancer than did ESRD patients in a Cox model that did not include death as a competing risk (HR = 1.70). After competing mortality had been adjusted for, ESRD patients ≥70 (sdHR = 0.82) and ESRD patients on long-term dialysis (> 5 follow-up years, sdHR = 0.62), had a lower risk for developing cancer than did ESRD patients. This finding supported our hypothesis that standard survival analyses overestimate the event rate, especially when the mortality rate is high. It also showed that ESRD patients, when they grow older, were far less likely to develop cancer and far more likely to die because of underlying illnesses that might also affect the risk of death because of ESRD.

  9. Analyzing semi-competing risks data with missing cause of informative terminal event.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Renke; Zhu, Hong; Bondy, Melissa; Ning, Jing

    2017-02-28

    Cancer studies frequently yield multiple event times that correspond to landmarks in disease progression, including non-terminal events (i.e., cancer recurrence) and an informative terminal event (i.e., cancer-related death). Hence, we often observe semi-competing risks data. Work on such data has focused on scenarios in which the cause of the terminal event is known. However, in some circumstances, the information on cause for patients who experience the terminal event is missing; consequently, we are not able to differentiate an informative terminal event from a non-informative terminal event. In this article, we propose a method to handle missing data regarding the cause of an informative terminal event when analyzing the semi-competing risks data. We first consider the nonparametric estimation of the survival function for the terminal event time given missing cause-of-failure data via the expectation-maximization algorithm. We then develop an estimation method for semi-competing risks data with missing cause of the terminal event, under a pre-specified semiparametric copula model. We conduct simulation studies to investigate the performance of the proposed method. We illustrate our methodology using data from a study of early-stage breast cancer. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Optimising import risk mitigation: anticipating the unintended consequences and competing risks of informal trade.

    PubMed

    Hueston, W; Travis, D; van Klink, E

    2011-04-01

    The effectiveness of risk mitigation may be compromised by informal trade, including illegal activities, parallel markets and extra-legal activities. While no regulatory system is 100% effective in eliminating the risk of disease transmission through animal and animal product trade, extreme risk aversion in formal import health regulations may increase informal trade, with the unintended consequence of creating additional risks outside regulatory purview. Optimal risk mitigation on a national scale requires scientifically sound yet flexible mitigation strategies that can address the competing risks of formal and informal trade. More robust risk analysis and creative engagement of nontraditional partners provide avenues for addressing informal trade.

  11. Actual and actuarial probabilities of competing risks: apples and lemons.

    PubMed

    Grunkemeier, Gary L; Jin, Ruyun; Eijkemans, Marinus J C; Takkenberg, Johanna J M

    2007-05-01

    The probability of a type of failure that is not inevitable, but can be precluded by other events such as death, is given by the cumulative incidence function. In cardiac research articles, it has become known as the actual probability, in contrast to the actuarial methods of estimation, usually implemented by the Kaplan-Meier (KM) estimate. Unlike cumulative incidence, KM attempts to predict what the latent failure probability would be if death were eliminated. To do this, the KM method assumes that the risk of dying and the risk of failure are independent. But this assumption is not true for many cardiac applications in which the risks of failure and death are negatively correlated (ie, patients with a higher risk of dying have a lower risk of failure, and patients with a lower risk of death have a higher risk of failure, which is a condition called informative censoring). Recent editorials in two cardiac journals have promoted the use of the KM method (actuarial estimate) for competing risk events (specifically for heart valve performance) and criticized the use of the cumulative incidence (actual) estimates. This report has two aims: to explain the difference between these two estimates and to show why the KM is generally not appropriate. In the process we will rely on alternative representations of the KM estimator (using redistribution to the right and inverse probability weighting) to explain the difference between the two estimates and to show how it may be possible to adjust KM to overcome the informative censoring.

  12. Allergies, obesity, other risk factors and survival from pancreatic cancer.

    PubMed

    Olson, Sara H; Chou, Joanne F; Ludwig, Emmy; O'Reilly, Eileen; Allen, Peter J; Jarnagin, William R; Bayuga, Sharon; Simon, Jennifer; Gonen, Mithat; Reisacher, William R; Kurtz, Robert C

    2010-11-15

    Survival from pancreatic adenocarcinoma remains extremely poor, approximately 5% at 5 years. Risk factors include smoking, high body mass index (BMI), family history of pancreatic cancer, and long-standing diabetes; in contrast, allergies are associated with reduced risk. Little is known about associations between these factors and survival. We analyzed overall survival in relation to risk factors for 475 incident cases who took part in a hospital based case-control study. Analyses were conducted separately for those who did (160) and did not (315) undergo tumor resection. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to describe survival according to smoking, BMI, family history, diabetes, and presence of allergies. Cox proportional hazards models were used to adjust for covariates. There was no association with survival based on smoking, family history, or history of diabetes in either group. Among patients with resection, those with allergies showed nonstatistically significant longer survival, a median of 33.1 months (95% CI: 19.0-52.5) vs. 21.8 months (95% CI: 18.0-33.1), p = 0.25. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.43-1.23), p = 0.23. Among patients without resection, those with self-reported allergies survived significantly longer than those without allergies: 13.3 months (95% CI: 10.6-16.9) compared to 10.4 months (95% CI: 8.8-11.0), p = 0.04, with an adjusted HR of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.49-0.95), p = 0.02. Obesity was nonsignificantly associated with poorer survival, particularly in the resected group (HR = 1.62, 95% CI: 0.76-3.44). The mechanisms underlying the association between history of allergies and improved survival are unknown. These novel results need to be confirmed in other studies.

  13. Parametric likelihood inference for interval censored competing risks data.

    PubMed

    Hudgens, Michael G; Li, Chenxi; Fine, Jason P

    2014-03-01

    Parametric estimation of the cumulative incidence function (CIF) is considered for competing risks data subject to interval censoring. Existing parametric models of the CIF for right censored competing risks data are adapted to the general case of interval censoring. Maximum likelihood estimators for the CIF are considered under the assumed models, extending earlier work on nonparametric estimation. A simple naive likelihood estimator is also considered that utilizes only part of the observed data. The naive estimator enables separate estimation of models for each cause, unlike full maximum likelihood in which all models are fit simultaneously. The naive likelihood is shown to be valid under mixed case interval censoring, but not under an independent inspection process model, in contrast with full maximum likelihood which is valid under both interval censoring models. In simulations, the naive estimator is shown to perform well and yield comparable efficiency to the full likelihood estimator in some settings. The methods are applied to data from a large, recent randomized clinical trial for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV.

  14. Competing events influence estimated survival probability: when is Kaplan-Meier analysis appropriate?

    PubMed

    Biau, David Jean; Latouche, Aurélien; Porcher, Raphaël

    2007-09-01

    The Kaplan-Meier estimator is the current method for estimating the probability of an event to occur with time in orthopaedics. However, the Kaplan-Meier estimator was designed to estimate the probability of an event that eventually will occur for all patients, ie, death, and this does not hold for other outcomes. For example, not all patients will experience hip arthroplasty loosening because some may die first, and some may have their implant removed to treat infection or recurrent hip dislocation. Such events that preclude the observation of the event of interest are called competing events. We suggest the Kaplan-Meier estimator is inappropriate in the presence of competing events and show that it overestimates the probability of the event of interest to occur with time. The cumulative incidence estimator is an alternative approach to Kaplan-Meier in situations where competing risks are likely. Three common situations include revision for implant loosening in the long-term followup of arthroplasties or implant failure in the context of limb-salvage surgery or femoral neck fracture.

  15. Effect of Psychosocial Factors on Cancer Risk and Survival

    PubMed Central

    Nakaya, Naoki

    2014-01-01

    Psychosocial factors such as personality traits and depression may alter immune and endocrine function, with possible effects on cancer incidence and survival. Although these factors have been extensively studied as risk and prognostic factors for cancer, the associations remain unclear. The author used data from prospective cohort studies in population-based and clinical databases to investigate these relations. The findings do not support the hypotheses that personality traits and depression are direct risk factors for cancer and cancer survival. Some researchers have recently reported that cancer affects the psychological status of the partners and family members of cancer patients. The mechanisms underlying this hypothesis imply the existence of not only psychological distress from caregiving and grief but also a shared unhealthy lifestyle. Only a few studies have suggested that major psychosocial problems develop in partners of cancer patients. The present study used nationwide population-based data to investigate depression risk among male partners of women with breast cancer. The results support the hypothesis that such men are at increased risk of depression. In conclusion, the effects of personality traits and depression on cancer risk and survival appear to be extremely small. In addition, partners of cancer patients were at increased risk of depression. Screening partners and family members of cancer patients for depressive symptoms is therefore an important concern for research in psycho-oncology. PMID:24270060

  16. Outcome after Reconstruction of the Proximal Tibia – Complications and Competing Risk Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Puchner, Stephan E.; Kutscha-Lissberg, Paul; Kaider, Alexandra; Panotopoulos, Joannis; Puchner, Rudolf; Böhler, Christoph; Hobusch, Gerhard; Windhager, Reinhard; Funovics, Philipp T.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Objectives The proximal tibia (pT) is a common site for bone tumors. Improvements in imaging, chemotherapy and surgical technique made limb salvage surgery the treatment of choice. Yet, reconstructions of the pT have been associated with less favorable outcome compared to other parts of the extremities. The aim of this study was to evaluate the outcome of patients with a modular endoprosthetic reconstruction of the pT. Methods Eighty-one consecutive patients with an average age of 29 years underwent endoprosthetic reconstruction of the pT. Postoperative complications were categorized according to the ISOLS classification, and revision-free survival until first complication (any Type 1–5), soft tissue failure (Type 1), aseptic loosening (Type 2), structural failure (Type 3), infection (Type 4), and local tumor progression (Type 5) was estimated by using a Fine-Gray model for competing risk analyses for univariate and multivariable regression with Firth’s bias correction. Results A total of 45 patients (56%) had at least one complication. Cumulative incidence for complication Types 1 to 5 at 5 years with death and amputation as competing events revealed a risk of 41% for the first complication, 14% for Type 1, 16% for Type 2, 11% for Type 3, 17% for Type 4, and 1% for Type 5. Conclusion Despite inclusion of amputation and death as strong competing events, pT replacements are still associated with a high risk of postoperative failures. The results suggest that infection and soft tissue failures (Type 1 and 5) seem to depend from each other. Sufficient soft tissue reconstruction and closure allow better function and reduce the risk of infection as the most prominent complication. The use of a rotating hinge design has significantly reduced structural failures over time. PMID:26270336

  17. Survival Association Rule Mining Towards Type 2 Diabetes Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Simon, Gyorgy J.; Schrom, John; Castro, M. Regina; Li, Peter W.; Caraballo, Pedro J.

    2013-01-01

    Type-2 Diabetes Mellitus is a growing epidemic that often leads to severe complications. Effective preventive measures exist and identifying patients at high risk of diabetes is a major health-care need. The use of association rule mining (ARM) is advantageous, as it was specifically developed to identify associations between risk factors in an interpretable form. Unfortunately, traditional ARM is not directly applicable to survival outcomes and it lacks the ability to compensate for confounders and to incorporate dosage effects. In this work, we propose Survival Association Rule (SAR) Mining, which addresses these shortcomings. We demonstrate on a real diabetes data set that SARs are naturally more interpretable than the traditional association rules, and predictive models built on top of these rules are very competitive relative to state of the art survival models and substantially outperform the most widely used diabetes index, the Framingham score. PMID:24551408

  18. Analysing multicentre competing risks data with a mixed proportional hazards model for the subdistribution.

    PubMed

    Katsahian, Sandrine; Resche-Rigon, Matthieu; Chevret, Sylvie; Porcher, Raphaël

    2006-12-30

    In the competing-risks setting, to test the effect of a covariate on the probability of one particular cause of failure, the Fine and Gray model for the subdistribution hazard can be used. However, sometimes, competing risks data cannot be considered as independent because of a clustered design, for instance in registry cohorts or multicentre clinical trials. Frailty models have been shown useful to analyse such clustered data in a classical survival setting, where only one risk acts on the population. Inclusion of random effects in the subdistribution hazard has not been assessed yet. In this work, we propose a frailty model for the subdistribution hazard. This allows first to assess the heterogeneity across clusters, then to incorporate such an effect when testing the effect of a covariate of interest. Based on simulation study, the effect of the presence of heterogeneity on testing for covariate effects was studied. Finally, the model was illustrated on a data set from a registry cohort of patients with acute myeloid leukaemia who underwent bone marrow transplantation.

  19. A New Flexible Dependence Measure for Semi-competing Risks

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Jing

    2016-01-01

    Summary Semi-competing risks data are often encountered in chronic disease follow-up studies that record both nonterminal events (eg. disease landmark events) and terminal events (eg. death). Studying the relationship between the nonterminal event and the terminal event can provide insightful information on disease progression. In this paper, we propose a new sensible dependence measure tailored to addressing such an interest. We develop a nonparametric estimator, which is general enough to handle both independent right censoring and left truncation. Our strategy of connecting the new dependence measure with quantile regression enables a natural extension to adjust for covariates with minor additional assumptions imposed. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators and develop inferences accordingly. Simulation studies suggest good finite-sample performance of the proposed methods. Our proposals are illustrated via an application to Denmark diabetes registry data. PMID:26916804

  20. Competing Risk Analysis for Evaluation of Dalteparin Versus Unfractionated Heparin for Venous Thromboembolism in Medical-Surgical Critically Ill Patients

    PubMed Central

    Li, Guowei; Cook, Deborah J.; Levine, Mitchell A.H.; Guyatt, Gordon; Crowther, Mark; Heels-Ansdell, Diane; Holbrook, Anne; Lamontagne, Francois; Walter, Stephen D.; Ferguson, Niall D.; Finfer, Simon; Arabi, Yaseen M.; Bellomo, Rinaldo; Cooper, D. Jamie; Thabane, Lehana

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Failure to recognize the presence of competing risk or to account for it may result in misleading conclusions. We aimed to perform a competing risk analysis to assess the efficacy of the low molecular weight heparin dalteparin versus unfractionated heparin (UFH) in venous thromboembolism (VTE) in medical-surgical critically ill patients, taking death as a competing risk. This was a secondary analysis of a prospective randomized study of the Prophylaxis for Thromboembolism in Critical Care Trial (PROTECT) database. A total of 3746 medical-surgical critically ill patients from 67 intensive care units (ICUs) in 6 countries receiving either subcutaneous UFH 5000 IU twice daily (n = 1873) or dalteparin 5000 IU once daily plus once-daily placebo (n = 1873) were included for analysis. A total of 205 incident proximal leg deep vein thromboses (PLDVT) were reported during follow-up, among which 96 were in the dalteparin group and 109 were in the UFH group. No significant treatment effect of dalteparin on PLDVT compared with UFH was observed in either the competing risk analysis or standard survival analysis (also known as cause-specific analysis) using multivariable models adjusted for APACHE II score, history of VTE, need for vasopressors, and end-stage renal disease: sub-hazard ratio (SHR) = 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.70–1.21, P-value = 0.56 for the competing risk analysis; hazard ratio (HR) = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.68–1.23, P-value = 0.57 for cause-specific analysis. Dalteparin was associated with a significant reduction in risk of pulmonary embolism (PE): SHR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.31–0.94, P-value = 0.02 for the competing risk analysis; HR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.30–0.88, P-value = 0.01 for the cause-specific analysis. Two additional sensitivity analyses using the treatment variable as a time-dependent covariate and using as-treated and per-protocol approaches demonstrated similar findings. This competing risk analysis

  1. Competing Risk Analysis for Evaluation of Dalteparin Versus Unfractionated Heparin for Venous Thromboembolism in Medical-Surgical Critically Ill Patients.

    PubMed

    Li, Guowei; Cook, Deborah J; Levine, Mitchell A H; Guyatt, Gordon; Crowther, Mark; Heels-Ansdell, Diane; Holbrook, Anne; Lamontagne, Francois; Walter, Stephen D; Ferguson, Niall D; Finfer, Simon; Arabi, Yaseen M; Bellomo, Rinaldo; Cooper, D Jamie; Thabane, Lehana

    2015-09-01

    Failure to recognize the presence of competing risk or to account for it may result in misleading conclusions. We aimed to perform a competing risk analysis to assess the efficacy of the low molecular weight heparin dalteparin versus unfractionated heparin (UFH) in venous thromboembolism (VTE) in medical-surgical critically ill patients, taking death as a competing risk.This was a secondary analysis of a prospective randomized study of the Prophylaxis for Thromboembolism in Critical Care Trial (PROTECT) database. A total of 3746 medical-surgical critically ill patients from 67 intensive care units (ICUs) in 6 countries receiving either subcutaneous UFH 5000 IU twice daily (n = 1873) or dalteparin 5000 IU once daily plus once-daily placebo (n = 1873) were included for analysis.A total of 205 incident proximal leg deep vein thromboses (PLDVT) were reported during follow-up, among which 96 were in the dalteparin group and 109 were in the UFH group. No significant treatment effect of dalteparin on PLDVT compared with UFH was observed in either the competing risk analysis or standard survival analysis (also known as cause-specific analysis) using multivariable models adjusted for APACHE II score, history of VTE, need for vasopressors, and end-stage renal disease: sub-hazard ratio (SHR) = 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.70-1.21, P-value = 0.56 for the competing risk analysis; hazard ratio (HR) = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.68-1.23, P-value = 0.57 for cause-specific analysis. Dalteparin was associated with a significant reduction in risk of pulmonary embolism (PE): SHR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.31-0.94, P-value = 0.02 for the competing risk analysis; HR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.30-0.88, P-value = 0.01 for the cause-specific analysis. Two additional sensitivity analyses using the treatment variable as a time-dependent covariate and using as-treated and per-protocol approaches demonstrated similar findings.This competing risk analysis yields no

  2. Multiple primary tumours: incidence estimation in the presence of competing risks

    PubMed Central

    Rosso, Stefano; Terracini, Lea; Ricceri, Fulvio; Zanetti, Roberto

    2009-01-01

    Background Estimating the risk of developing subsequent primary tumours in a population is difficult since the occurrence probability is conditioned to the survival probability. Methods We proposed to apply Markov models studying the transition intensities from first to second tumour with the Aalen-Johansen (AJ) estimators, as usually done in competing risk models. In a simulation study we applied the proposed method in different settings with constant or varying underlying intensities and applying age standardisation. In addition, we illustrated the method with data on breast cancer from the Piedmont Cancer Registry. Results The simulation study showed that the person-years approach led to a sensibly wider bias than the AJ estimators. The largest bias was observed assuming constantly increasing incidence rates. However, this situation is rather uncommon dealing with subsequent tumours incidence. In 9233 cases with breast cancer occurred in women resident in Turin, Italy, between 1985 and 1998 we observed a significant increased risk of 1.91 for subsequent cancer of corpus uteri, estimated with the age-standardised Aalen-Johansen incidence ratio (AJ-IRstand), and a significant increased risk of 1.29 for cancer possibly related to the radiotherapy of breast cancer. The peak of occurrence of those cancers was observed after 8 years of follow-up. Conclusion The increased risk of a cancer of the corpus uteri, also observed in other studies, is usually interpreted as the common shared risk factors such as low parity, early menarche and late onset of menopause. We also grouped together those cancers possibly associated to a previous local radiotherapy: the cumulative risk at 14 years is still not significant, however the AJ estimators showed a significant risk peak between the eighth and the ninth year. Finally, the proposed approach has been shown to be reliable and informative under several aspects. It allowed for a correct estimation of the risk, and for investigating

  3. Estimating twin concordance for bivariate competing risks twin data.

    PubMed

    Scheike, Thomas H; Holst, Klaus K; Hjelmborg, Jacob B

    2014-03-30

    For twin time-to-event data, we consider different concordance probabilities, such as the casewise concordance that are routinely computed as a measure of the lifetime dependence/correlation for specific diseases. The concordance probability here is the probability that both twins have experienced the event of interest. Under the assumption that both twins are censored at the same time, we show how to estimate this probability in the presence of right censoring, and as a consequence, we can then estimate the casewise twin concordance. In addition, we can model the magnitude of within pair dependence over time, and covariates may be further influential on the marginal risk and dependence structure. We establish the estimators large sample properties and suggest various tests, for example, for inferring familial influence. The method is demonstrated and motivated by specific twin data on cancer events with the competing risk death. We thus aim to quantify the degree of dependence through the casewise concordance function and show a significant genetic component.

  4. The use of group sequential designs with common competing risks tests

    PubMed Central

    Logan, Brent R.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    2012-01-01

    Clinical trials are often performed using a group sequential design in order to allow investigators to review the accumulating data sequentially and possibly terminate the trial early for efficacy or futility. Standard methods for comparing survival distributions have been shown under varying levels of generality to follow an independent increments structure. In the presence of competing risks, where the occurrence of one type of event precludes the occurrence of another type of event, researchers may be interested in inference on the cumulative incidence function, which describes the probability of experiencing a particular event by a given time. This manuscript shows that two commonly used tests for comparing cumulative incidence functions, a pointwise comparison at a single point, and Gray's test, also follow the independent increments structure when used in a group sequential setting. A simulation study confirms the theoretical derivations even for modest trial sample sizes. Two examples of clinical trials in hematopoietic cell transplantation are used to illustrate the techniques. PMID:22945865

  5. A Method for Evaluating Competency in Assessment and Management of Suicide Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hung, Erick K.; Binder, Renee L.; Fordwood, Samantha R.; Hall, Stephen E.; Cramer, Robert J.; McNiel, Dale E.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Although health professionals increasingly are expected to be able to assess and manage patients' risk for suicide, few methods are available to evaluate this competency. This report describes development of a competency-assessment instrument for suicide risk-assessment (CAI-S), and evaluates its use in an objective structured clinical…

  6. Landmark risk prediction of residual life for breast cancer survival.

    PubMed

    Parast, Layla; Cai, Tianxi

    2013-09-10

    The importance of developing personalized risk prediction estimates has become increasingly evident in recent years. In general, patient populations may be heterogenous and represent a mixture of different unknown subtypes of disease. When the source of this heterogeneity and resulting subtypes of disease are unknown, accurate prediction of survival may be difficult. However, in certain disease settings, the onset time of an observable short-term event may be highly associated with these unknown subtypes of disease and thus may be useful in predicting long-term survival. One approach to incorporate short-term event information along with baseline markers for the prediction of long-term survival is through a landmark Cox model, which assumes a proportional hazards model for the residual life at a given landmark point. In this paper, we use this modeling framework to develop procedures to assess how a patient's long-term survival trajectory may change over time given good short-term outcome indications along with prognosis on the basis of baseline markers. We first propose time-varying accuracy measures to quantify the predictive performance of landmark prediction rules for residual life and provide resampling-based procedures to make inference about such accuracy measures. Simulation studies show that the proposed procedures perform well in finite samples. Throughout, we illustrate our proposed procedures by using a breast cancer dataset with information on time to metastasis and time to death. In addition to baseline clinical markers available for each patient, a chromosome instability genetic score, denoted by CIN25, is also available for each patient and has been shown to be predictive of survival for various types of cancer. We provide procedures to evaluate the incremental value of CIN25 for the prediction of residual life and examine how the residual life profile changes over time. This allows us to identify an informative landmark point, t(0) , such that

  7. Media influence on risk competence in self-medication and self-treatment

    PubMed Central

    Schweim, Harald; Ullmann, Marcela

    2015-01-01

    Media play an important role in the reception of health risks; thus, media competence is important for enhancing the risk competence of patients and consumers. In addition to life-long health education, risk competence particularly requires careful handling of health information because, at present, the key problem is not the lack of sufficient information on health topics but the quality of such information. Patients and consumers of health procedures and health products also require information which relates to their daily life and matches their life style. PMID:26195923

  8. Media influence on risk competence in self-medication and self-treatment.

    PubMed

    Schweim, Harald; Ullmann, Marcela

    2015-01-01

    Media play an important role in the reception of health risks; thus, media competence is important for enhancing the risk competence of patients and consumers. In addition to life-long health education, risk competence particularly requires careful handling of health information because, at present, the key problem is not the lack of sufficient information on health topics but the quality of such information. Patients and consumers of health procedures and health products also require information which relates to their daily life and matches their life style.

  9. Melanoma risk loci as determinants of melanoma recurrence and survival

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Steadily high melanoma mortality rates urge for the availability of novel biomarkers with a more personalized ability to predict melanoma clinical outcomes. Germline risk variants are promising candidates for this purpose; however, their prognostic potential in melanoma has never been systematically tested. Methods We examined the effect of 108 melanoma susceptibility single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), associated in recent GWAS with melanoma and melanoma-related phenotypes, on recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS), in 891 prospectively accrued melanoma patients. Cox proportional hazards models (Cox PH) were used to test the associations between 108 melanoma risk SNPs and RFS and OS adjusted by age at diagnosis, gender, tumor stage, histological subtype and other primary tumor characteristics. Results We identified significant associations for rs7538876 (RCC2) with RFS (HR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.20-1.83, p = 0.0005) and rs9960018 (DLGAP1) with both RFS and OS (HR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.07-1.91, p = 0.01, HR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.09-2.12, p = 0.01, respectively) using multivariable Cox PH models. In addition, we developed a logistic regression model that incorporates rs7538876, rs9960018, primary tumor histological type and stage at diagnosis that has an improved discriminatory ability to classify 3-year recurrence (AUC = 82%) compared to histological type and stage alone (AUC = 78%). Conclusions We identified associations between melanoma risk variants and melanoma outcomes. The significant associations observed for rs7538876 and rs9960018 suggest a biological implication of these loci in melanoma progression. The observed predictive patterns of associated variants with clinical end-points suggest for the first time the potential for utilization of genetic risk markers in melanoma prognostication. PMID:24188633

  10. Competing-risk analysis of ESRD and death among patients with type 1 diabetes and macroalbuminuria.

    PubMed

    Forsblom, Carol; Harjutsalo, Valma; Thorn, Lena M; Wadén, Johan; Tolonen, Nina; Saraheimo, Markku; Gordin, Daniel; Moran, John L; Thomas, Merlin C; Groop, Per-Henrik

    2011-03-01

    Patients with both type 1 diabetes and CKD have an increased risk of adverse outcomes. The competing risks of death and ESRD may confound the estimates of risk for each outcome. Here, we sought to determine the major predictors of the cumulative incidence of ESRD and pre-ESRD mortality in patients with type 1 diabetes and macroalbuminuria while incorporating the competing risk for the alternate outcome into a Fine-Gray competing-risks analysis. We followed 592 patients with macroalbuminuria for a median of 9.9 years. During this time, 56 (9.5%) patients died and 210 (35.5%) patients developed ESRD. Predictors of incident ESRD, taking baseline renal function and the competing risk for death into account, included an elevated HbA(1c), elevated LDL cholesterol, male sex, weight-adjusted insulin dose, and a shorter duration of diabetes. By contrast, predictors of pre-ESRD death, taking baseline renal function and the competing risk for ESRD into account, included only age, the presence of established macrovascular disease, and elevated cholesterol levels. This competing-risks approach has potential to highlight the appropriate targets and strategies for preventing premature mortality in patients with type 1 diabetes.

  11. Predicting Emotional and Social Competence during Early Childhood from Toddler Risk and Maternal Behavior

    PubMed Central

    Blandon, Alysia Y.; Calkins, Susan D.; Keane, Susan P.

    2010-01-01

    The longitudinal associations between maternal parenting behavior and toddler risk with children’s emotional and social competence were examined during the transition to kindergarten, in a sample of 253 children. Toddler risk was characterized by early externalizing behavior and poor emotion regulation skills. Given that we were interested in the multiple pathways that may result in emotional and social competence, we examined the interactions among maternal parenting behavior and toddler risk. There were some significant interactions; although the pattern of results was not consistent across all competence outcomes. Maternal parenting behavior was not directly associated with children’s emotional and social competence. In some instances, maternal control has differential implications for children’s emotional and social competence dependent upon the child’s level of early risk and maternal positive parenting. Specifically, maternal control tended to be more detrimental for children’s emotional competence during the transition to kindergarten, when children exhibit higher levels of risk. Overall, it appears that there are multiple developmental pathways, depending on child and maternal characteristics that lead to early emotional and social competence. PMID:20102651

  12. The Fine–Gray Model Under Interval Censored Competing Risks Data

    PubMed Central

    Li, Chenxi

    2015-01-01

    We consider semiparametric analysis of competing risks data subject to mixed case interval censoring. The Fine–Gray model (Fine & Gray, 1999) is used to model the cumulative incidence function and is coupled with sieve semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation based on univariate or multivariate likelihood. The univariate likelihood of cause-specific data enables separate estimation of cumulative incidence function for each competing risk, in contrast with the multivariate likelihood of full data which estimates cumulative incidence functions for multiple competing risks jointly. Under both likelihoods and certain regularity conditions, we show that the regression parameter estimator is asymptotically normal and semiparametrically efficient, although the spline-based sieve estimator of the baseline cumulative subdistribution hazard converges at a rate slower than root-n. The proposed method is evaluated by simulation studies regarding its finite sample performance and is illustrated by a competing risk analysis of data from an dementia cohort study. PMID:26543275

  13. Association of Breast Cancer Risk loci with Breast Cancer Survival

    PubMed Central

    Barrdahl, Myrto; Canzian, Federico; Lindström, Sara; Shui, Irene; Black, Amanda; Hoover, Robert N.; Ziegler, Regina G.; Buring, Julie E.; Chanock, Stephen J.; Diver, W. Ryan; Gapstur, Susan M.; Gaudet, Mia M.; Giles, Graham G.; Haiman, Christopher; Henderson, Brian E.; Hankinson, Susan; Hunter, David J.; Joshi, Amit D.; Kraft, Peter; Lee, I-Min; Le Marchand, Loic; Milne, Roger L.; Southey, Melissa C.; Willett, Walter; Gunter, Marc; Panico, Salvatore; Sund, Malin; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Sánchez, María-José; Overvad, Kim; Dossus, Laure; Peeters, Petra H; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Kaaks, Rudolf; Campa, Daniele

    2015-01-01

    The survival of breast cancer patients is largely influenced by tumor characteristics, such as TNM stage, tumor grade and hormone receptor status. However, there is growing evidence that inherited genetic variation might affect the disease prognosis and response to treatment. Several lines of evidence suggest that alleles influencing breast cancer risk might also be associated with breast cancer survival. We examined the associations between 35 breast cancer susceptibility loci and the disease over-all survival (OS) in 10,255 breast cancer patients from the National Cancer Institute Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium (BPC3) of which 1,379 died, including 754 of breast cancer. We also conducted a meta-analysis of almost 35,000 patients and 5,000 deaths, combining results from BPC3 and the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) and performed in silico analyses of SNPs with significant associations. In BPC3, the C allele of LSP1-rs3817198 was significantly associated with improved OS (HRper-allele=0.70; 95% CI: 0.58–0.85; Ptrend=2.84×10−4; HRheterozygotes=0.71; 95% CI: 0.55–0.92; HRhomozygotes=0.48; 95% CI: 0.31–0.76; P2DF=1.45×10−3). In silico, the C allele of LSP1-rs3817198 was predicted to increase expression of the tumor suppressor cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 1C (CDKN1C). In the meta-analysis, TNRC9-rs3803662 was significantly associated with increased death hazard (HRMETA =1.09; 95% CI: 1.04–1.15; Ptrend=6.6×10−4; HRheterozygotes=0.96 95% CI: 0.90–1.03; HRhomozygotes= 1.21; 95% CI: 1.09–1.35; P2DF=1.25×10−4). In conclusion, we show that there is little overlap between the breast cancer risk single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified so far and the SNPs associated with breast cancer prognosis, with the possible exceptions of LSP1-rs3817198 and TNRC9-rs3803662. PMID:25611573

  14. Development of Instructional Competencies for Assessing and Managing Suicide Risk for Baccalaureate Nursing Education: A Modified Delphi Study.

    PubMed

    Kotowski, Abigail; Roye, Carol

    2017-03-01

    Suicide is a major health problem and a leading cause of death throughout the world. A primary goal for suicide prevention is reforming health professional education in order to increase the competence of health professionals in assessing and managing suicide risk. Nursing leadership is involved in this reform, yet nurses frequently lack the competence to care for patients in suicidal crisis. An identified gap in baccalaureate nursing education is instructional competencies for assessing and managing suicide risk. A modified Delphi study was used. The study began with a focus group which was conducted in order to develop the Round I Survey which included forty-four competencies. After scoring these competencies, thirty-four were scored for inclusion, two were dropped and eight were revised according to panel members' comments. The Round II Survey comprised the eight revised competencies which were scored for inclusion, resulting in forty-two competencies in the final set of instructional competencies. Forty-two instructional competencies were developed: fourteen pre-assessment instructional competencies, fifteen assessment instructional competencies, and thirteen management instructional competencies. Incorporating these instructional competencies into baccalaureate nursing education might increase the competence of nursing students, and thus new nurses, in caring for patients at risk for suicide. These instructional competencies provide a first step to address the challenging task of intervening with patients at risk for suicide.

  15. Core Competencies and the Prevention of High-Risk Sexual Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Charles, Vignetta Eugenia; Blum, Robert Wm.

    2008-01-01

    Adolescent sexual risk-taking behavior has numerous individual, family, community, and societal consequences. In an effort to contribute to the research and propose new directions, this chapter applies the core competencies framework to the prevention of high-risk sexual behavior. It describes the magnitude of the problem, summarizes explanatory…

  16. The competing risks illness-death model under cross-sectional sampling.

    PubMed

    Mandel, Micha

    2010-04-01

    The competing risks illness-death model describes the dynamics of healthy subjects who may move to an "illness" state before entering into one of several competing terminal states. A motivating example concerns patients in a hospital who may acquire infections during their stay, where the competing terminal states are discharged alive and death in the hospital. We consider a cross-sectional sampling of independent competing risks illness-death processes in which data are subject to length bias and censoring and develop estimators for functionals of the underlying distribution such as the joint probability of the terminal state and illness (infection) and cumulative incidence functions. We apply the methodology to infection data obtained in a cross-sectional study of patients hospitalized in intensive care units.

  17. Linking habitat selection and predation risk to spatial variation in survival.

    PubMed

    DeCesare, Nicholas J; Hebblewhite, Mark; Bradley, Mark; Hervieux, David; Neufeld, Lalenia; Musiani, Marco

    2014-03-01

    A central assumption underlying the study of habitat selection is that selected habitats confer enhanced fitness. Unfortunately, this assumption is rarely tested, and in some systems, gradients of predation risk may more accurately characterize spatial variation in vital rates than gradients described by habitat selection studies. Here, we separately measured spatial patterns of both resource selection and predation risk and tested their relationships with a key demographic trait, adult female survival, for a threatened ungulate, woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou Gmelin). We also evaluated whether exposure to gradients in both predation risk and resource selection value was manifested temporally through instantaneous or seasonal effects on survival outcomes. We used Cox proportional hazards spatial survival modelling to assess the relative support for 5 selection- and risk-based definitions of habitat quality, as quantified by woodland caribou adult female survival. These hypotheses included scenarios in which selection ideally mirrored survival, risk entirely drove survival, non-ideal selection correlated with survival but with additive risk effects, an ecological trap with maladaptive selection and a non-spatial effect of annual variation in weather. Indeed, we found positive relationships between the predicted values of a resource selection function (RSF) and survival, yet subsequently incorporating an additional negative effect of predation risk greatly improved models further. This revealed a positive, but non-ideal relationship between selection and survival. Gradients in these covariates were also shown to affect individual survival probability at multiple temporal scales. Exposure to increased predation risk had a relatively instantaneous effect on survival outcomes, whereas variation in habitat suitability predicted by an RSF had both instantaneous and longer-term seasonal effects on survival. Predation risk was an additive source of hazard

  18. Students "At-Risk" Policy: Competing Social and Economic Discourses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mosen-Lowe, Linda Audrey Joy; Vidovich, Lesley; Chapman, Anne

    2009-01-01

    Within a context of global reform agendas that promote economic ideologies in education the discourses surrounding "school failure" have shifted from "individual risk" to "a nation at-risk". Enhancing the quality of schooling through improving educational outcomes and standards for all, and thereby reducing…

  19. Do Health Professionals Need Additional Competencies for Stratified Cancer Prevention Based on Genetic Risk Profiling?

    PubMed Central

    Chowdhury, Susmita; Henneman, Lidewij; Dent, Tom; Hall, Alison; Burton, Alice; Pharoah, Paul; Pashayan, Nora; Burton, Hilary

    2015-01-01

    There is growing evidence that inclusion of genetic information about known common susceptibility variants may enable population risk-stratification and personalized prevention for common diseases including cancer. This would require the inclusion of genetic testing as an integral part of individual risk assessment of an asymptomatic individual. Front line health professionals would be expected to interact with and assist asymptomatic individuals through the risk stratification process. In that case, additional knowledge and skills may be needed. Current guidelines and frameworks for genetic competencies of non-specialist health professionals place an emphasis on rare inherited genetic diseases. For common diseases, health professionals do use risk assessment tools but such tools currently do not assess genetic susceptibility of individuals. In this article, we compare the skills and knowledge needed by non-genetic health professionals, if risk-stratified prevention is implemented, with existing competence recommendations from the UK, USA and Europe, in order to assess the gaps in current competences. We found that health professionals would benefit from understanding the contribution of common genetic variations in disease risk, the rationale for a risk-stratified prevention pathway, and the implications of using genomic information in risk-assessment and risk management of asymptomatic individuals for common disease prevention. PMID:26068647

  20. Do Health Professionals Need Additional Competencies for Stratified Cancer Prevention Based on Genetic Risk Profiling?

    PubMed

    Chowdhury, Susmita; Henneman, Lidewij; Dent, Tom; Hall, Alison; Burton, Alice; Pharoah, Paul; Pashayan, Nora; Burton, Hilary

    2015-06-09

    There is growing evidence that inclusion of genetic information about known common susceptibility variants may enable population risk-stratification and personalized prevention for common diseases including cancer. This would require the inclusion of genetic testing as an integral part of individual risk assessment of an asymptomatic individual. Front line health professionals would be expected to interact with and assist asymptomatic individuals through the risk stratification process. In that case, additional knowledge and skills may be needed. Current guidelines and frameworks for genetic competencies of non-specialist health professionals place an emphasis on rare inherited genetic diseases. For common diseases, health professionals do use risk assessment tools but such tools currently do not assess genetic susceptibility of individuals. In this article, we compare the skills and knowledge needed by non-genetic health professionals, if risk-stratified prevention is implemented, with existing competence recommendations from the UK, USA and Europe, in order to assess the gaps in current competences. We found that health professionals would benefit from understanding the contribution of common genetic variations in disease risk, the rationale for a risk-stratified prevention pathway, and the implications of using genomic information in risk-assessment and risk management of asymptomatic individuals for common disease prevention.

  1. The effects of misclassification of the actual cause of death in competing risks analysis.

    PubMed

    Ebrahimi, N

    1996-07-30

    The problem of competing risks analysis arises often in public health, demography, actuarial science, industrial reliability applications, and experiments in medical therapeutics. In the classical competing risks scenario one models the risks with a vector (T = (T1, ..., Tk) of non-negative random variables that represents the potential times to death of k risks. One cannot see T directly but sees instead Y = min (T1, ..., Tk) and the actual cause of death. The major difficulty with this analysis is the requirement for the expert to specify the single cause of death that, in fact, may not be the actual cause. This paper addresses competing risks analysis for the situations where one observes Y and the set of several possible causes of death specified by the expert. Many times there are several causes that act together and realistically it is impossible for the expert to assign a death to a single cause. In particular, I provide a likelihood for parametric competing risks analysis when the actual cause of death is possibly misclassified. The data include time to death, Y, and a set of possible causes of death. If misclassification probabilities are unknown, I propose a Baysian analysis based on a prior distribution for the parameters of interest and for the misclassification probabilities.

  2. Self-criticism of physicians, patient participation and risk competence

    PubMed Central

    Wolffsohn, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Self-criticism of physicians and patient participation are the pillars of modern medical ethics and medical programmes. Patients expect risk minimisation from physicians, mostly without realising how much they could actively do themselves in this respect. But what about the willingness of German people to take risks, how high is it really at present? Direct empirical data are not available, but results from general empirical research show that people’s willingness to take risks is probably rather low. Post-heroic societies of welfare states are less likely to take risks than supposedly heroic ones. Therefore, the question whether it is responsible for medical experts to transfer even more responsibility to non-medical laypeople becomes increasingly important in a social context. PMID:26195919

  3. Are women as likely to take risks and compete? Behavioural findings from central Vietnam.

    PubMed

    Fletschner, Diana; Anderson, C Leigh; Cullen, Alison

    2010-01-01

    Using controlled experiments to compare the risk attitude and willingness to compete of husbands and wives in 500 couples in rural Vietnam, we find that women are more risk averse than men and that, compared to men, women are less likely to choose to compete, irrespective of how likely they are to succeed. Relevant to development programmes concerned with lifting women out of poverty, our findings suggest that women may be more reluctant to adopt new technologies, take out loans, or engage in economic activities that offer higher expected returns, in order to avoid setups that require them to be more competitive or that have less predictable outcomes.

  4. Statistical analysis of dependent competing risks model from Gompertz distribution under progressively hybrid censoring.

    PubMed

    Shi, Yimin; Wu, Min

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies have mostly considered the competing risks to be independent even when the interpretation of the failure modes implies dependency. This paper studies the dependent competing risks model from Gompertz distribution under Type-I progressively hybrid censoring scheme. We derive the maximum likelihood estimations of the model parameters, and then the asymptotic likelihood theory and Bootstrap method are used to obtain the confidence intervals. The simulation results are provided to investigate the effects of different dependence structures on the estimations of parameters. Finally, one data set was used for illustrative purpose.

  5. Trustworthy patient decision aids: a qualitative analysis addressing the risk of competing interests

    PubMed Central

    Elwyn, Glyn; Dannenberg, Michelle; Blaine, Arianna; Poddar, Urbashi; Durand, Marie-Anne

    2016-01-01

    Objective Our aim in this study was to examine the competing interest policies and procedures of organisations who develop and maintain patient decision aids. Design Descriptive and thematic analysis of data collected from a cross-sectional survey of patient decision aid developer's competing interest policies and disclosure forms. Results We contacted 25 organisations likely to meet the inclusion criteria. 12 eligible organisations provided data. 11 organisations did not reply and 2 declined to participate. Most patient decision aid developers recognise the need to consider the issue of competing interests. Assessment processes vary widely and, for the most part, are insufficiently robust to minimise the risk of competing interests. Only half of the 12 organisations had competing interest policies. Some considered disclosure to be sufficient, while others imposed differing levels of exclusion. Conclusions Patient decision aid developers do not have a consistent approach to managing competing interests. Some have developed policies and procedures, while others pay no attention to the issue. As is the case for clinical practice guidelines, increasing attention will need to be given to how the competing interests of contributors of evidence-based publications may influence materials, especially if they are designed for patient use. PMID:27612542

  6. Survival of high-risk pediatric neuroblastoma patients in a developing country.

    PubMed

    Easton, Joseph C; Gomez, Sergio; Asdahl, Peter H; Conner, J Michael; Fynn, Alcira B; Ruiz, Claudia; Ojha, Rohit P

    2016-09-01

    Little information is available about survival of high-risk pediatric neuroblastoma patients in developing countries. We aimed to assess survival among high-risk pediatric neuroblastoma patients in La Plata, Argentina. Individuals eligible for our cohort were aged <20 yr when diagnosed with high-risk neuroblastoma and received cancer-directed therapy including stem cell transplantation at Hospital de Niños Sor Maria Ludovica between February 1999 and February 2015. We estimated overall survival probabilities using an extended Kaplan-Meier approach. Our study population comprised 39 high-risk neuroblastoma patients, of whom 39% were aged >4 yr at diagnosis, 54% were male, and 62% had adrenal neuroblastoma. We observed 18 deaths, and the median survival time of our study population was 1.7 yr. The five-yr overall survival probability was 24% (95% CL: 10%, 41%). In contrast, five-yr survival of high-risk neuroblastoma patients ranges between 23% and 76% in developed countries. Survival among high-risk neuroblastoma patients is generally poor regardless of geographic location, but our results illustrate dramatically worse survival for patients in a developing country. We speculate that the observed survival differences could be attenuated or eliminated with improvements in treatment and supportive care, but addressing these issues will require creative solutions because of resource limitations.

  7. Contextual risk and parenting as predictors of effortful control and social competence in preschool children

    PubMed Central

    Lengua, Liliana J.; Honorado, Elizabeth; Bush, Nicole R.

    2011-01-01

    Using a short-term longitudinal design (6 months), this study examined cumulative contextual risk as a predictor of effortful control (EC) and social competence in a community sample of children (N = 80, ages 33–40 months at time 1). Maternal parenting was examined as a mediator of contextual risk. EC was assessed using laboratory tasks, and parenting was assessed using observational ratings. Time 1 contextual risk was negatively related to time 2 EC after controlling for time 1 EC. Mothers’ limit setting and scaffolding predicted higher time 2 EC and accounted for the effect of contextual risk. Time 1 EC, contextual risk, and parenting predicted time 2 social competence, and contextual risk had an indirect effect on social competence through parenting. Results suggest that contextual risk predicts smaller relative increases in EC and that parenting accounts for this effect. Knowledge of the factors that divert or promote effortful control can provide targets for intervention to enhance effortful control abilities and better adjustment. PMID:21687825

  8. Contextual risk and parenting as predictors of effortful control and social competence in preschool children.

    PubMed

    Lengua, Liliana J; Honorado, Elizabeth; Bush, Nicole R

    2007-01-01

    Using a short-term longitudinal design (6 months), this study examined cumulative contextual risk as a predictor of effortful control (EC) and social competence in a community sample of children (N = 80, ages 33-40 months at time 1). Maternal parenting was examined as a mediator of contextual risk. EC was assessed using laboratory tasks, and parenting was assessed using observational ratings. Time 1 contextual risk was negatively related to time 2 EC after controlling for time 1 EC. Mothers' limit setting and scaffolding predicted higher time 2 EC and accounted for the effect of contextual risk. Time 1 EC, contextual risk, and parenting predicted time 2 social competence, and contextual risk had an indirect effect on social competence through parenting. Results suggest that contextual risk predicts smaller relative increases in EC and that parenting accounts for this effect. Knowledge of the factors that divert or promote effortful control can provide targets for intervention to enhance effortful control abilities and better adjustment.

  9. Rapid Risk-Based Evaluation of Competing Conceptual Designs

    SciTech Connect

    Bott, T.F.; Butner, J.M.

    1999-08-22

    In this paper, the authors have shown how a qualitative analysis can provide good input to a risk reduction design problem. Traditionally qualitative analyses such as the FMEA can be supplemented by qualitative fault trees and event trees to produce logic models of the accident sequences for the different design options. These models can be compared using rule-based manipulations of qualitative branch point probabilities. A qualitative evaluation of other considerations such as collateral safety effects, operational impacts and worker-safety impacts can provide a more complete picture of the trade-off between options. The authors believe that their risk-reduction analysis approach that combines logic models with qualitative and possibility metrics provides an excellent tool for incorporating safety concerns rapidly and effectively into a conceptual design evaluation.

  10. Awakening as a change process among women at risk for HIV who engage in survival sex.

    PubMed

    Mallory, C; Stern, P N

    2000-09-01

    Women who exchange sex for survival requirements risk exposure to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). This grounded theory study was conducted to better understand these women's concerns, attitudes, and behaviors related to HIV, with the goal of informing prevention research. Interviews with 11 women engaged in survival sex were analyzed. Women described sliding into survival sex as a result of economic crises. Survival sex exposed women to violence, drug use, sexually transmitted infections, and HIV. Mitigating these risks is a process of awakening in which women reconstruct risk and survival and make changes in their behavior. These findings highlight the complexity of the problem of survival sex and suggest interventions to help women protect themselves against HIV.

  11. Reversible Disassembly of the Actin Cytoskeleton Improves the Survival Rate and Developmental Competence of Cryopreserved Mouse Oocytes

    PubMed Central

    Hosu, Basarab G.; Mullen, Steven F.; Critser, John K.; Forgacs, Gabor

    2008-01-01

    Effective cryopreservation of oocytes is critically needed in many areas of human reproductive medicine and basic science, such as stem cell research. Currently, oocyte cryopreservation has a low success rate. The goal of this study was to understand the mechanisms associated with oocyte cryopreservation through biophysical means using a mouse model. Specifically, we experimentally investigated the biomechanical properties of the ooplasm prior and after cryopreservation as well as the consequences of reversible dismantling of the F-actin network in mouse oocytes prior to freezing. The study was complemented with the evaluation of post-thaw developmental competence of oocytes after in vitro fertilization. Our results show that the freezing-thawing process markedly alters the physiological viscoelastic properties of the actin cytoskeleton. The reversible depolymerization of the F-actin network prior to freezing preserves normal ooplasm viscoelastic properties, results in high post-thaw survival and significantly improves developmental competence. These findings provide new information on the biophysical characteristics of mammalian oocytes, identify a pathophysiological mechanism underlying cryodamage and suggest a novel cryopreservation method. PMID:18665248

  12. The Effect of Family on the Job Exits of Young Adults: A Competing Risk Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koenigsberg, Judy; And Others

    1994-01-01

    Event history analysis and a competing risk model of occupational attainment indicate that, for men, marriage and children at job entry have negative effects on job exits; for women, they negatively affect exits to attend school but positively affect exits for other reasons, suggesting that young women with children may consider parenting their…

  13. Using La Familia Communication Competency Skills To Empower Hispanic At-Risk Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Flores, Norma Landa

    Hispanic families can be empowered through parent training workshops focusing on the development of competency based interpersonal communication skills. Nearly 50% of the Latinos in the United States are at risk of dropping out before graduating from high school. They believe that their family obligations come first and that the school system is…

  14. Pitfalls in Pathways: Some Perspectives on Competing Risks Event History Analysis in Education Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Scott, Marc A.; Kennedy, Benjamin B.

    2005-01-01

    A set of discrete-time methods for competing risks event history analysis is presented. The approach used is accessible to the practitioner and the article describes the strengths, weaknesses, and interpretation of both exploratory and model-based tools. These techniques are applied to the impact of "nontraditional" enrollment features (working,…

  15. Social Competence of Students with Learning Disabilities Using a Risk-Resilience Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Benowitz, Alison Joy

    2010-01-01

    Children with learning disabilities (LD) makeup 50.5% of all children identified for special services in the schools. Research has found that children with LD have difficulties in areas of functioning related to social competence. This study is based on a risk and resilience model to explore external protective factors (friendships and social…

  16. A competing risks approach for time estimation of household WEEE disposal

    SciTech Connect

    Gutierrez, E.; Adenso-Diaz, B.; Lozano, S.; Gonzalez-Torre, P.

    2010-08-15

    The recent growth in the number of electrical and electronic devices is viewed as one the priority waste streams in European Union waste management policy. This paper presents the findings of a survey to study domestic habits with respect to Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) in Spain. A specific problem when performing this estimation arises from the fact that consumers quite often store old appliances at home when they are no longer used. Focusing on four different types of appliance, survival analysis (SA) is used to study both the usage span and the reasons for no longer using each device. The time that the discarded products were kept at home before being disposed of was studied using competing risks (CR) analysis. The results of the analysis provide information on the distribution of the studied variables for the different outcomes as well as the influence exerted by the socio-demographic variables considered. Relations between these characteristics and the storage time of the appliances before disposal emerge based on survey data. For instance, the CR model finds that the storage time of the some appliances (i.e. refrigerator) is related to these social-demographics factors. However, other appliances (i.e. microwave oven) are less influenced by these factors. The attitude and motivation of the respondents to the survey as regards the End-of-Life of appliances were also analysed. A majority of respondents do not store discarded appliances at home. The first reason for storing appliances at home is the possibility of it being useful in the future and the second that the respondents did not know what to do with them.

  17. A competing risks approach for time estimation of household WEEE disposal.

    PubMed

    Gutiérrez, E; Adenso-Díaz, B; Lozano, S; González-Torre, P

    2010-01-01

    The recent growth in the number of electrical and electronic devices is viewed as one the priority waste streams in European Union waste management policy. This paper presents the findings of a survey to study domestic habits with respect to Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) in Spain. A specific problem when performing this estimation arises from the fact that consumers quite often store old appliances at home when they are no longer used. Focusing on four different types of appliance, survival analysis (SA) is used to study both the usage span and the reasons for no longer using each device. The time that the discarded products were kept at home before being disposed of was studied using competing risks (CR) analysis. The results of the analysis provide information on the distribution of the studied variables for the different outcomes as well as the influence exerted by the socio-demographic variables considered. Relations between these characteristics and the storage time of the appliances before disposal emerge based on survey data. For instance, the CR model finds that the storage time of the some appliances (i.e. refrigerator) is related to these social-demographics factors. However, other appliances (i.e. microwave oven) are less influenced by these factors. The attitude and motivation of the respondents to the survey as regards the End-of-Life of appliances were also analysed. A majority of respondents do not store discarded appliances at home. The first reason for storing appliances at home is the possibility of it being useful in the future and the second that the respondents did not know what to do with them.

  18. Later Competence and Adaptation in Infants Who Survive Severe Heart Defects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Dougherty, Margaret; And Others

    1983-01-01

    Describes a model of risk potential for developmental outcome that was based on cardiac, medical, surgical, and family stress factors in 31 children with transposition of the great arteries. All children had undergone reparative open heart surgery utilizing cardiopulmonary bypass during infancy. (Author/RH)

  19. Competing with giants. Survival strategies for local companies in emerging markets.

    PubMed

    Dawar, N; Frost, T

    1999-01-01

    The arrival of a multinational corporation often looks like a death sentence to local companies in an emerging market. After all, how can they compete in the face of the vast financial and technological resources, the seasoned management, and the powerful brands of, say, a Compaq or a Johnson & Johnson? But local companies often have more options than they might think, say the authors. Those options vary, depending on the strength of globalization pressures in an industry and the nature of a company's competitive assets. In the worst case, when globalization pressures are strong and a company has no competitive assets that it can transfer to other countries, it needs to retreat to a locally oriented link within the value chain. But if globalization pressures are weak, the company may be able to defend its market share by leveraging the advantages it enjoys in its home market. Many companies in emerging markets have assets that can work well in other countries. Those that operate in industries where the pressures to globalize are weak may be able to extend their success to a limited number of other markets that are similar to their home base. And those operating in global markets may be able to contend head-on with multinational rivals. By better understanding the relationship between their company's assets and the industry they operate in, executives from emerging markets can gain a clearer picture of the options they really have when multinationals come to stay.

  20. Comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials using clinical risk-benefit analysis

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background To demonstrate the use of risk-benefit analysis for comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials, we applied this approach to the evaluation of five anticoagulants to prevent thrombosis in patients undergoing orthopedic surgery. Methods Using a cost-effectiveness approach from a clinical perspective (i.e. risk benefit analysis) we compared thromboprophylaxis with warfarin, low molecular weight heparin, unfractionated heparin, fondaparinux or ximelagatran in patients undergoing major orthopedic surgery, with sub-analyses according to surgery type. Proportions and variances of events defining risk (major bleeding) and benefit (thrombosis averted) were obtained through a meta-analysis and used to define beta distributions. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted and used to calculate incremental risks, benefits, and risk-benefit ratios. Finally, net clinical benefit was calculated for all replications across a range of risk-benefit acceptability thresholds, with a reference range obtained by estimating the case fatality rate - ratio of thrombosis to bleeding. Results The analysis showed that compared to placebo ximelagatran was superior to other options but final results were influenced by type of surgery, since ximelagatran was superior in total knee replacement but not in total hip replacement. Conclusions Using simulation and economic techniques we demonstrate a method that allows comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials with multiple arms by determining the option with the best risk-benefit profile. It can be helpful in clinical decision making since it incorporates risk, benefit, and personal risk acceptance. PMID:22233221

  1. Impact of treatment variability on survival in immuno-competent and immuno-compromised patients with primary central nervous lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Karmali, Reem; Nabhan, Chadi; Petrich, Adam M; Raizer, Jeffrey; Peace, David; Lukas, Rimas; Gordon, Leo I; Basu, Sanjib; Chukkapalli, Vineela; Venugopal, Parameswaran

    2017-02-17

    Patients with primary central nervous system lymphoma (PCNSL) treated in the 'real-world' setting do not represent those treated on clinical trials and might not be treated similarly. We studied characteristics and variability in care for 113 newly diagnosed PCNSL patients treated at 5 institutions in the Chicago area between 2000 and 2012. In 111 patients, single modality therapy with a high dose methotrexate (HD-MTX) regimen +/- rituximab, was most commonly employed (n = 65), and 34 underwent radiotherapy (+/- systemic therapy). Fifty-eight of 108 patients received rituximab. Twenty-nine of 110 patients (26%) received intrathecal chemotherapy (ITC). Overall response rate was 80% (47% complete responses). With a median follow-up of 18·7 months, median overall survival (OS) was 65·2 months. In univariate analysis, HD-MTX (median OS 72·7 vs. 2·7 months, P < 0·001) and rituximab (median not reached versus 28·4 months, P = 0·005) impacted OS favourably. This significance was sustained regardless of immune status and in multivariate analysis. Whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) resulted in a trend for improved OS as compared with systemic therapy alone (P = 0·09), while ITC did not impact survival. Clinical practice has evolved to exclude WBRT and ITC while incorporating rituximab with clinical outcomes comparable in immuno-competent/compromised patients and similar to those achieved in recent clinical trials.

  2. Intelligence quotient discrepancy indicates levels of motor competence in preschool children at risk for developmental delays

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Tzu-Ying; Chen, Kuan-Lin; Chou, Willy; Yang, Shu-Han; Kung, Sheng-Chun; Lee, Ya-Chen; Tung, Li-Chen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose This study aimed to establish 1) whether a group difference exists in the motor competence of preschool children at risk for developmental delays with intelligence quotient discrepancy (IQD; refers to difference between verbal intelligence quotient [VIQ] and performance intelligence quotient [PIQ]) and 2) whether an association exists between IQD and motor competence. Methods Children’s motor competence and IQD were determined with the motor subtests of the Comprehensive Developmental Inventory for Infants and Toddlers and Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence™ – Fourth Edition. A total of 291 children were included in three groups: NON-IQD (n=213; IQD within 1 standard deviation [SD]), VIQ>PIQ (n=39; VIQ>PIQ greater than 1 SD), and PIQ>VIQ (n=39; PIQ>VIQ greater than 1 SD). Results The results of one-way analysis of variance indicated significant differences among the subgroups for the “Gross and fine motor” subdomains of the Comprehensive Developmental Inventory for Infants and Toddlers, especially on the subtests of “body-movement coordination” (F=3.87, P<0.05) and “visual-motor coordination” (F=6.90, P<0.05). Motor competence was significantly worse in the VIQ>PIQ group than in the NON and PIQ>VIQ groups. Significant negative correlations between IQD and most of the motor subtests (r=0.31–0.46, P<0.01) were found only in the VIQ>PIQ group. Conclusion This study demonstrates that 1) IQD indicates the level of motor competence in preschoolers at risk for developmental delays and 2) IQD is negatively associated with motor competence in preschoolers with significant VIQ>PIQ discrepancy. The first finding was that preschoolers with VIQ>PIQ discrepancy greater than 1 SD performed significantly worse on motor competence than did preschoolers without significant IQD and preschoolers with PIQ>VIQ discrepancy greater than 1 SD. However, preschoolers with significant PIQ>VIQ discrepancy performed better on motor competence than

  3. A Novel Risk Score to the Prediction of 10-year Risk for Coronary Artery Disease Among the Elderly in Beijing Based on Competing Risk Model

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Long; Tang, Zhe; Li, Xia; Luo, Yanxia; Guo, Jin; Li, Haibin; Liu, Xiangtong; Tao, Lixin; Yan, Aoshuang; Guo, Xiuhua

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The study aimed to construct a risk prediction model for coronary artery disease (CAD) based on competing risk model among the elderly in Beijing and develop a user-friendly CAD risk score tool. We used competing risk model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CAD event. On the basis of the risk factors that were included in the competing risk model, we constructed the CAD risk prediction model with Cox proportional hazard model. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the discrimination ability of the both methods. Calibration plots were applied to assess the calibration ability and adjusted for the competing risk of non-CAD death. Net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were applied to quantify the improvement contributed by the new risk factors. Internal validation of predictive accuracy was performed using 1000 times of bootstrap re-sampling. Of the 1775 participants without CAD at baseline, 473 incident cases of CAD were documented for a 20-year follow-up. Time-dependent AUCs for men and women at t = 10 years were 0.841 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.806–0.877], 0.804 (95% CI: 0.768–0.839) in Fine and Gray model, 0.784 (95% CI: 0.738–0.830), 0.733 (95% CI: 0.692–0.775) in Cox proportional hazard model. The competing risk model was significantly superior to Cox proportional hazard model on discrimination and calibration. The cut-off values of the risk score that marked the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients were 34 points for men and 30 points for women, which have good sensitivity and specificity. A sex-specific multivariable risk factor algorithm-based competing risk model has been developed on the basis of an elderly Chinese cohort, which could be applied to predict an individual's risk and provide a useful guide to identify the groups at a high risk for CAD among the Chinese

  4. A Novel Risk Score to the Prediction of 10-year Risk for Coronary Artery Disease Among the Elderly in Beijing Based on Competing Risk Model.

    PubMed

    Liu, Long; Tang, Zhe; Li, Xia; Luo, Yanxia; Guo, Jin; Li, Haibin; Liu, Xiangtong; Tao, Lixin; Yan, Aoshuang; Guo, Xiuhua

    2016-03-01

    The study aimed to construct a risk prediction model for coronary artery disease (CAD) based on competing risk model among the elderly in Beijing and develop a user-friendly CAD risk score tool. We used competing risk model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CAD event. On the basis of the risk factors that were included in the competing risk model, we constructed the CAD risk prediction model with Cox proportional hazard model. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the discrimination ability of the both methods. Calibration plots were applied to assess the calibration ability and adjusted for the competing risk of non-CAD death. Net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were applied to quantify the improvement contributed by the new risk factors. Internal validation of predictive accuracy was performed using 1000 times of bootstrap re-sampling. Of the 1775 participants without CAD at baseline, 473 incident cases of CAD were documented for a 20-year follow-up. Time-dependent AUCs for men and women at t = 10 years were 0.841 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.806-0.877], 0.804 (95% CI: 0.768-0.839) in Fine and Gray model, 0.784 (95% CI: 0.738-0.830), 0.733 (95% CI: 0.692-0.775) in Cox proportional hazard model. The competing risk model was significantly superior to Cox proportional hazard model on discrimination and calibration. The cut-off values of the risk score that marked the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients were 34 points for men and 30 points for women, which have good sensitivity and specificity. A sex-specific multivariable risk factor algorithm-based competing risk model has been developed on the basis of an elderly Chinese cohort, which could be applied to predict an individual's risk and provide a useful guide to identify the groups at a high risk for CAD among the Chinese adults over 55

  5. Competence, risk, and resilience in military families: conceptual commentary.

    PubMed

    Masten, Ann S

    2013-09-01

    This commentary highlights conceptual themes in the opening section of this special issue on military families in relation to a new synthesis of developmental systems theory that emerged from developmental, ecological, and family systems theory, as well as developmental psychopathology and risk/resilience frameworks. Articles in this special issue draw on these concepts to characterize and guide the burgeoning research on military families. This perspective emphasizes that multiple dynamic systems interact across levels to shape individual development, as well as the function of families and military units. Developmental timing is important for understanding how challenges of military life may impact individuals and families. Cascade effects are noted, where stress experienced by one family or service member can influence the function of other individuals or larger systems. Capacity for resilience is distributed across systems, including families and cultures, as well as resources or supports provided by military organizations to foster adaptive responses or recovery. These systems include schools and educational programs that play key roles in fostering and supporting resilience for children. Overall, developmental system concepts have considerable utility for guiding research with military families, particularly in regard to promoting resilience. Moreover, lessons learned from military families and programs may have much broader implications for many other nonmilitary children, families, and organizations that share similar goals and challenges.

  6. Improved Method to Stratify Elderly Patients With Cancer at Risk for Competing Events

    PubMed Central

    Carmona, Ruben; Zakeri, Kaveh; Green, Garrett; Hwang, Lindsay; Gulaya, Sachin; Xu, Beibei; Verma, Rohan; Williamson, Casey W.; Triplett, Daniel P.; Rose, Brent S.; Shen, Hanjie; Vaida, Florin; Murphy, James D.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To compare a novel generalized competing event (GCE) model versus the standard Cox proportional hazards regression model for stratifying elderly patients with cancer who are at risk for competing events. Methods We identified 84,319 patients with nonmetastatic prostate, head and neck, and breast cancers from the SEER-Medicare database. Using demographic, tumor, and clinical characteristics, we trained risk scores on the basis of GCE versus Cox models for cancer-specific mortality and all-cause mortality. In test sets, we examined the predictive ability of the risk scores on the different causes of death, including second cancer mortality, noncancer mortality, and cause-specific mortality, using Fine-Gray regression and area under the curve. We compared how well models stratified subpopulations according to the ratio of the cumulative cause-specific hazard for cancer mortality to the cumulative hazard for overall mortality (ω) using the Akaike Information Criterion. Results In each sample, increasing GCE risk scores were associated with increased cancer-specific mortality and decreased competing mortality, whereas risk scores from Cox models were associated with both increased cancer-specific mortality and competing mortality. GCE models created greater separation in the area under the curve for cancer-specific mortality versus noncancer mortality (P < .001), indicating better discriminatory ability between these events. Comparing the GCE model to Cox models of cause-specific mortality or all-cause mortality, the respective Akaike Information Criterion scores were superior (lower) in each sample: prostate cancer, 28.6 versus 35.5 versus 39.4; head and neck cancer, 21.1 versus 29.4 versus 40.2; and breast cancer, 24.6 versus 32.3 versus 50.8. Conclusion Compared with standard modeling approaches, GCE models improve stratification of elderly patients with cancer according to their risk of dying from cancer relative to overall mortality. PMID:26884579

  7. Competing risk analysis on outcome after hepatic resection of hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic patients

    PubMed Central

    Cucchetti, Alessandro; Sposito, Carlo; Pinna, Antonio Daniele; Citterio, Davide; Cescon, Matteo; Bongini, Marco; Ercolani, Giorgio; Cotsoglou, Christian; Maroni, Lorenzo; Mazzaferro, Vincenzo

    2017-01-01

    AIM To investigate death for liver failure and for tumor recurrence as competing events after hepatectomy of hepatocellular carcinoma. METHODS Data from 864 cirrhotic Child-Pugh class A consecutive patients, submitted to curative hepatectomy (1997-2013) at two tertiary referral hospitals, were used for competing-risk analysis through the Fine and Gray method, aimed at assessing in which circumstances the oncological benefit from tumour removal is greater than the risk of dying from hepatic decompensation. To accomplish this task, the average risk of these two competing events, over 5 years of follow-up, was calculated through the integral of each cumulative incidence function, and represented the main comparison parameter. RESULTS Within a median follow-up of 5.6 years, death was attributable to tumor recurrence in 63.5%, and to liver failure in 21.2% of cases. In the first 16 mo, the risk of dying due to liver failure exceeded that of dying due to tumor relapse. Tumor stage only affects death from recurrence; whereas hepatitis C infection, Model for End-stage Liver Disease score, extent of hepatectomy and portal hypertension influence death from liver failure (P < 0.05 in all cases). The combination of these clinical and tumoral features identifies those patients in whom the risk of dying from liver failure did not exceed the tumour-related mortality, representing optimal surgical candidates. It also identifies those clinical circumstances where the oncological benefit would be borderline or even where the surgery would be harmful. CONCLUSION Having knowledge of these competing events can be used to weigh the risks and benefits of hepatic resection in each clinical circumstance, separating optimal from non-optimal surgical candidates. PMID:28293094

  8. Linking habitat selection and predation risk to spatial variation in survival

    PubMed Central

    DeCesare, Nicholas J; Hebblewhite, Mark; Bradley, Mark; Hervieux, David; Neufeld, Lalenia; Musiani, Marco; Mysterud, Atle

    2014-01-01

    1. A central assumption underlying the study of habitat selection is that selected habitats confer enhanced fitness. Unfortunately, this assumption is rarely tested, and in some systems, gradients of predation risk may more accurately characterize spatial variation in vital rates than gradients described by habitat selection studies. 2. Here, we separately measured spatial patterns of both resource selection and predation risk and tested their relationships with a key demographic trait, adult female survival, for a threatened ungulate, woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou Gmelin). We also evaluated whether exposure to gradients in both predation risk and resource selection value was manifested temporally through instantaneous or seasonal effects on survival outcomes. 3. We used Cox proportional hazards spatial survival modelling to assess the relative support for 5 selection- and risk-based definitions of habitat quality, as quantified by woodland caribou adult female survival. These hypotheses included scenarios in which selection ideally mirrored survival, risk entirely drove survival, non-ideal selection correlated with survival but with additive risk effects, an ecological trap with maladaptive selection and a non-spatial effect of annual variation in weather. 4. Indeed, we found positive relationships between the predicted values of a resource selection function (RSF) and survival, yet subsequently incorporating an additional negative effect of predation risk greatly improved models further. This revealed a positive, but non-ideal relationship between selection and survival. Gradients in these covariates were also shown to affect individual survival probability at multiple temporal scales. Exposure to increased predation risk had a relatively instantaneous effect on survival outcomes, whereas variation in habitat suitability predicted by an RSF had both instantaneous and longer-term seasonal effects on survival. 5. Predation risk was an additive source

  9. Accounting for death as a competing risk in cancer-associated thrombosis studies.

    PubMed

    Campigotto, Federico; Neuberg, Donna; Zwicker, Jeffrey I

    2012-04-01

    In recent years, clinical investigation in the field of cancer-associated thrombosis has identified a number of potential biomarkers to predict the risk of developing a thrombotic event. Similarly, large randomized clinical trials have demonstrated the benefit of low molecular weight heparins in the treatment as well as prevention of venous thromboembolic events (VTE) in cancer patients. However, the most common statistical methodology to evaluate the occurrence of VTE has been the Kaplan-Meier approach. When used to estimate the cumulative incidence of VTE in cancer studies, the Kaplan-Meier method over-estimates the cumulative incidence function due to failure to account for death as a competing risk for the development of VTE. A more appropriate statistical estimate of cumulative incidence of VTE in cancer studies is the competing risk model. This review describes the theoretical and mathematical basis for estimating the cumulative incidence function by the competing risk model for the analysis of VTE outcomes in cancer-associated thrombosis.

  10. The Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index Predicts Survival in Elderly Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients with Radiotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Kunlun; Liu, Yang; You, Jie; Cui, Han; Zhu, Yiwei; Yuan, Ling

    2016-01-01

    The impact of nutritional status on survival among elderly esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients undergoing radiotherapy is unclear. In this study, we aimed at validating the performance of the geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) in predicting overall survival time in elderly ESCC patients with radiotherapy. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 239 ESCC patients aged 60 and over admitted consecutively from January 2008 to November 2014 in the Department of Radiotherapy, Henan Tumor Hospital (Affiliated Tumor Hospital of Zhengzhou University), Zhengzhou, Henan, China. All patients were subjected to nutritional screening using GNRI, and were followed for the occurrence of lymphatic node metastasis, radiation complication and mortality. The Kaplan–Meier method with Log-rank test was used to estimate survival curves. Univariable Cox regression analysis was used to identify variables associated with overall survival time. Among the 239 patients, 184 patients (76.9%) took no nutritional risk, 32 patients (13.4%) took moderate risk of malnutrition, and 23 patients (9.7%) took a high risk of malnutrition. Univariable Cox regression showed that both high nutritional risk group and moderate nutritional risk group were significantly less likely to survive than no nutritional risk patients (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.688, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.019–2.798 for moderate risk group, and HR = 2.699, 95% CI = 1.512–4.819 for high risk group, respectively). The GNRI is an independent prognostic factor for overall survival time in elderly ESCC patients with radiotherapy. A GNRI ≤98 can be suggested as an indicator of surviving less. PMID:27196126

  11. Non-parametric estimation of bivariate failure time associations in the presence of a competing risk.

    PubMed

    Bandeen-Roche, Karen; Ning, Jing

    2008-03-01

    Most research on the study of associations among paired failure times has either assumed time invariance or been based on complex measures or estimators. Little has accommodated competing risks. This paper targets the conditional cause-specific hazard ratio, henceforth called the cause-specific cross ratio, a recent modification of the conditional hazard ratio designed to accommodate competing risks data. Estimation is accomplished by an intuitive, non-parametric method that localizes Kendall's tau. Time variance is accommodated through a partitioning of space into 'bins' between which the strength of association may differ. Inferential procedures are developed, small-sample performance is evaluated and the methods are applied to the investigation of familial association in dementia onset.

  12. Analysis and design of randomised clinical trials involving competing risks endpoints

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background In randomised clinical trials involving time-to-event outcomes, the failures concerned may be events of an entirely different nature and as such define a classical competing risks framework. In designing and analysing clinical trials involving such endpoints, it is important to account for the competing events, and evaluate how each contributes to the overall failure. An appropriate choice of statistical model is important for adequate determination of sample size. Methods We describe how competing events may be summarised in such trials using cumulative incidence functions and Gray's test. The statistical modelling of competing events using proportional cause-specific and subdistribution hazard functions, and the corresponding procedures for sample size estimation are outlined. These are illustrated using data from a randomised clinical trial (SQNP01) of patients with advanced (non-metastatic) nasopharyngeal cancer. Results In this trial, treatment has no effect on the competing event of loco-regional recurrence. Thus the effects of treatment on the hazard of distant metastasis were similar via both the cause-specific (unadjusted csHR = 0.43, 95% CI 0.25 - 0.72) and subdistribution (unadjusted subHR 0.43; 95% CI 0.25 - 0.76) hazard analyses, in favour of concurrent chemo-radiotherapy followed by adjuvant chemotherapy. Adjusting for nodal status and tumour size did not alter the results. The results of the logrank test (p = 0.002) comparing the cause-specific hazards and the Gray's test (p = 0.003) comparing the cumulative incidences also led to the same conclusion. However, the subdistribution hazard analysis requires many more subjects than the cause-specific hazard analysis to detect the same magnitude of effect. Conclusions The cause-specific hazard analysis is appropriate for analysing competing risks outcomes when treatment has no effect on the cause-specific hazard of the competing event. It requires fewer subjects than the subdistribution hazard

  13. Accelerated failure time models for semi-competing risks data in the presence of complex censoring.

    PubMed

    Lee, Kyu Ha; Rondeau, Virginie; Haneuse, Sebastien

    2017-04-10

    Statistical analyses that investigate risk factors for Alzheimer's disease (AD) are often subject to a number of challenges. Some of these challenges arise due to practical considerations regarding data collection such that the observation of AD events is subject to complex censoring including left-truncation and either interval or right-censoring. Additional challenges arise due to the fact that study participants under investigation are often subject to competing forces, most notably death, that may not be independent of AD. Towards resolving the latter, researchers may choose to embed the study of AD within the "semi-competing risks" framework for which the recent statistical literature has seen a number of advances including for the so-called illness-death model. To the best of our knowledge, however, the semi-competing risks literature has not fully considered analyses in contexts with complex censoring, as in studies of AD. This is particularly the case when interest lies with the accelerated failure time (AFT) model, an alternative to the traditional multiplicative Cox model that places emphasis away from the hazard function. In this article, we outline a new Bayesian framework for estimation/inference of an AFT illness-death model for semi-competing risks data subject to complex censoring. An efficient computational algorithm that gives researchers the flexibility to adopt either a fully parametric or a semi-parametric model specification is developed and implemented. The proposed methods are motivated by and illustrated with an analysis of data from the Adult Changes in Thought study, an on-going community-based prospective study of incident AD in western Washington State.

  14. Variable selection in subdistribution hazard frailty models with competing risks data

    PubMed Central

    Do Ha, Il; Lee, Minjung; Oh, Seungyoung; Jeong, Jong-Hyeon; Sylvester, Richard; Lee, Youngjo

    2014-01-01

    The proportional subdistribution hazards model (i.e. Fine-Gray model) has been widely used for analyzing univariate competing risks data. Recently, this model has been extended to clustered competing risks data via frailty. To the best of our knowledge, however, there has been no literature on variable selection method for such competing risks frailty models. In this paper, we propose a simple but unified procedure via a penalized h-likelihood (HL) for variable selection of fixed effects in a general class of subdistribution hazard frailty models, in which random effects may be shared or correlated. We consider three penalty functions (LASSO, SCAD and HL) in our variable selection procedure. We show that the proposed method can be easily implemented using a slight modification to existing h-likelihood estimation approaches. Numerical studies demonstrate that the proposed procedure using the HL penalty performs well, providing a higher probability of choosing the true model than LASSO and SCAD methods without losing prediction accuracy. The usefulness of the new method is illustrated using two actual data sets from multi-center clinical trials. PMID:25042872

  15. A Model-Free Machine Learning Method for Risk Classification and Survival Probability Prediction.

    PubMed

    Geng, Yuan; Lu, Wenbin; Zhang, Hao Helen

    2014-01-01

    Risk classification and survival probability prediction are two major goals in survival data analysis since they play an important role in patients' risk stratification, long-term diagnosis, and treatment selection. In this article, we propose a new model-free machine learning framework for risk classification and survival probability prediction based on weighted support vector machines. The new procedure does not require any specific parametric or semiparametric model assumption on data, and is therefore capable of capturing nonlinear covariate effects. We use numerous simulation examples to demonstrate finite sample performance of the proposed method under various settings. Applications to a glioma tumor data and a breast cancer gene expression survival data are shown to illustrate the new methodology in real data analysis.

  16. Survival of the rhizosphere-competent biocontrol strain Pseudomonas fluorescens NBRI2650 in the soil and phytosphere.

    PubMed

    Nautlyal, C Shekhar; Johri, J K; Singh, H B

    2002-07-01

    Pseudomonas fluorescens NBRI2650 was isolated after screening 360 bacterial strains from the rhizosphere of chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) grown in fungal-disease-suppressive field soil. The strain was selected because of its high rhizosphere competence and ability to inhibit the growth of Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. ciceri, Rhizoctonia bataticola, and Pythium sp. under in vitro conditions. Survival and colonization of NBRI2650 in the phytosphere of chickpea, cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.), cucumber (Cucumis sativus L.), and tomato (Lycopersicon seculentum Mill.) were monitored using a chromosomally located rifampicin-marked mutant P. fluorescens NBRI2650R. The strain showed variable ability to invade and survive in the phytosphere of different plants. Chickpea was used as a tester plant for further work, as it was not invaded by NBRI2650R. The interaction between NBRI2650R and F oxysporum fsp. ciceri was studied by both light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. The lysis of the fungal cell wall by NBRI2650R was clearly demonstrated. Treatment of the chickpea seeds with NBRI2650R in prerelease experiments in the greenhouse using disease-conducive field soils from Jhansi and Kanpur resulted in increased plant growth and did not result in any perturbation of the indigenous microbial community that inhabited the rhizosphere of chickpea compared with nonbacterized seeds. Direct fermentation of diluted NBRI2650R on vermiculite without the need of expensive fermentors offers a reliable process for manufacturing bacterial inoculants in developing countries. Under field conditions, the horizontal and vertical movement of NBRI2650R was restricted to 30 and 60 cm, respectively, and the strain could not survive in the field during the 7 months before the chickpea could be planted for next cropping season. Field trials conducted at Jhansi, Kanpur, and Pantnagar resulted in higher grain yield increase in the bacteria-treated seed compared with the nonbacterized control

  17. A Competence-Based Science Learning Framework Illustrated through the Study of Natural Hazards and Disaster Risk Reduction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oyao, Sheila G.; Holbrook, Jack; Rannikmäe, Miia; Pagunsan, Marmon M.

    2015-01-01

    This article proposes a competence-based learning framework for science teaching, applied to the study of "big ideas", in this case to the study of natural hazards and disaster risk reduction (NH&DRR). The framework focuses on new visions of competence, placing emphasis on nurturing connectedness and behavioral actions toward…

  18. The Learning and Competency Development of Master Teachers in Alternative High Schools for At-Risk Youth: A Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williams, Nida W.

    2012-01-01

    This qualitative case study was designed to explore how master teachers in transfer high schools learn the competencies they perceive are required to engage at-risk students so that they persist and graduate. The study is based on the following assumptions: (1) The requisite teacher competencies can be defined and identified and, in fact,…

  19. From Reading Readiness to Reading Competence: The Role of Self-Regulation in At-Risk Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Leann E.; Borkowski, John G.; Whitman, Thomas L.

    2008-01-01

    This study investigated how self-regulation contributes to the development of reading competence in an at-risk sample of 157 children born to adolescent mothers. It was hypothesized that reading readiness at age 5 would shape self-regulation at age 10, which in turn would influence reading competence at age 14. Based on structural equation…

  20. Risk and survival outcomes of radiation-induced CNS tumors.

    PubMed

    Lee, Jessica W; Wernicke, A Gabriella

    2016-08-01

    Patients treated with cranial radiation are at risk of developing secondary CNS tumors. Understanding the incidence, treatment, and long-term outcomes of radiation-induced CNS tumors plays a role in clinical decision-making and patient education. Additionally, as meningiomas and pituitary tumors have been detected at increasing rates across all ages and may potentially be treated with radiation, it is important to know and communicate the risk of secondary tumors in children and adults. After conducting an extensive literature search, we identified publications that report incidence and long-term outcomes of radiation-induced CNS tumors. We reviewed 14 studies in children, which reported that radiation confers a 7- to 10-fold increase in subsequent CNS tumors, with a 20-year cumulative incidence ranging from 1.03 to 28.9 %. The latency period for secondary tumors ranged from 5.5 to 30 years, with gliomas developing in 5-10 years and meningiomas developing around 15 years after radiation. We also reviewed seven studies in adults, where the two strongest studies showed no increased risk while the remaining studies found a higher risk compared to the general population. The latency period for secondary CNS tumors in adults ranged from 5 to 34 years. Treatment and long-term outcomes of radiation-induced CNS tumors have been documented in four case series, which did not conclusively demonstrate that secondary CNS tumors fared worse than primary CNS tumors. Radiation-induced CNS tumors remain a rare occurrence that should not by itself impede radiation treatment. Additional investigation is needed on the risk of radiation-induced tumors in adults and the long-term outcomes of these tumors.

  1. Survival after partial and radical nephrectomy for high-risk disease: A propensity-matched comparison

    PubMed Central

    Maurice, Matthew J.; Zhu, Hui; Kim, Simon; Abouassaly, Robert

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Increasingly, partial nephrectomy has been applied to high-risk disease without evidence that its survival benefits can be extrapolated to this entity. We aimed to compare overall survival after partial vs. radical nephrectomy in patients with high-risk renal cell carcinoma. Methods: Using the National Cancer Data Base, we identified patients who underwent partial or radical nephrectomy for high-risk disease between 2003 and 2006. High-risk disease was defined as the presence of adverse pathological features within the primary tumour, namely high-grade or unfavourable histology, T3 stage, or both. After matching the partial and radical nephrectomy groups based on propensity scores, 1680, 276, and 76 patients with high-grade or unfavourable histology, T3 stage, or both adverse pathologic features, respectively, were available for analysis. Five-year overall survival was compared after partial vs. radical nephrectomy for each high-risk cohort using the Kaplan-Meier and log rank tests. Results: Partial nephrectomy was associated with a statistically significant improvement in five-year overall survival compared to radical nephrectomy for small tumours (median size 3.0 cm; interquartile range 2.1–4.5 cm) with high-grade or unfavourable histology (87% vs. 81%; p<0.01) or with pT3a stage (82% vs. 71%; p<0.01). For patients concomitantly harbouring both adverse pathologic features, no difference in survival was detected (p=0.21). Conclusions: Partial nephrectomy is associated with survival benefits in patients with adverse pathologic features, suggesting that renal preservation is not only safe, but also potentially beneficial for high-risk disease. Due to inherent selection bias associated with partial nephrectomy use, prospective validation of these findings is needed. PMID:27695581

  2. Sociodemographic risk, developmental competence, and PTSD symptoms in young children exposed to interpersonal trauma in early life.

    PubMed

    Enlow, Michelle Bosquet; Blood, Emily; Egeland, Byron

    2013-12-01

    Young children are disproportionately exposed to interpersonal trauma (maltreatment, witnessing intimate partner violence [IPV]) and appear particularly susceptible to negative sequelae. Little is known about the factors influencing vulnerability to traumatic stress responses and other negative outcomes in early life. This study examined associations among interpersonal trauma exposure, sociodemographic risk, developmental competence, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms in 200 children assessed from birth to first grade via standardized observations, record reviews, and maternal and teacher interviews. More severe PTSD symptoms were predicted by greater trauma exposure (r = .43), greater sociodemographic risk (r = .22), and lower developmental competence (rs=−.31 and −.54 for preschool and school-age developmental competence, respectively). Developmental competence partially mediated the association between trauma exposure and symptoms. Trauma exposure fully mediated the association between sociodemographic risk and symptoms. Neither sociodemographic risk nor developmental competence moderated trauma exposure effects on symptoms. The findings suggest that (a)exposure to maltreatment and IPV has additive effects on posttraumatic stress risk in early life, (b) associations between sociodemographic adversity and poor mental health may be attributable to increased trauma exposure in disadvantaged populations, and (c) early exposures have a negative cascade effect on developmental competence and mental health.

  3. Proportional hazards model for competing risks data with missing cause of failure

    PubMed Central

    Hyun, Seunggeun; Sun, Yanqing

    2012-01-01

    We consider the semiparametric proportional hazards model for the cause-specific hazard function in analysis of competing risks data with missing cause of failure. The inverse probability weighted equation and augmented inverse probability weighted equation are proposed for estimating the regression parameters in the model, and their theoretical properties are established for inference. Simulation studies demonstrate that the augmented inverse probability weighted estimator is doubly robust and the proposed method is appropriate for practical use. The simulations also compare the proposed estimators with the multiple imputation estimator of Lu and Tsiatis (2001). The application of the proposed method is illustrated using data from a bone marrow transplant study. PMID:22468017

  4. Risk Prediction of One-Year Mortality in Patients with Cardiac Arrhythmias Using Random Survival Forest.

    PubMed

    Miao, Fen; Cai, Yun-Peng; Zhang, Yu-Xiao; Li, Ye; Zhang, Yuan-Ting

    2015-01-01

    Existing models for predicting mortality based on traditional Cox proportional hazard approach (CPH) often have low prediction accuracy. This paper aims to develop a clinical risk model with good accuracy for predicting 1-year mortality in cardiac arrhythmias patients using random survival forest (RSF), a robust approach for survival analysis. 10,488 cardiac arrhythmias patients available in the public MIMIC II clinical database were investigated, with 3,452 deaths occurring within 1-year followups. Forty risk factors including demographics and clinical and laboratory information and antiarrhythmic agents were analyzed as potential predictors of all-cause mortality. RSF was adopted to build a comprehensive survival model and a simplified risk model composed of 14 top risk factors. The built comprehensive model achieved a prediction accuracy of 0.81 measured by c-statistic with 10-fold cross validation. The simplified risk model also achieved a good accuracy of 0.799. Both results outperformed traditional CPH (which achieved a c-statistic of 0.733 for the comprehensive model and 0.718 for the simplified model). Moreover, various factors are observed to have nonlinear impact on cardiac arrhythmias prognosis. As a result, RSF based model which took nonlinearity into account significantly outperformed traditional Cox proportional hazard model and has great potential to be a more effective approach for survival analysis.

  5. Restoration Survival: Revisiting Patients' Risk Factors Through a Systematic Literature Review.

    PubMed

    van de Sande, F H; Collares, K; Correa, M B; Cenci, M S; Demarco, F F; Opdam, Njm

    2016-09-01

    A literature review was conducted to investigate the influence of patient-related factors on restoration survival in posterior permanent teeth as well as to report the methods used to collect these factors. The selection of articles on longitudinal clinical studies investigating the survival of posterior restorations (except full crowns and temporary fillings) and including patient-related factors was performed by applying predefined criteria. The review was organized into two parts, the first describing how patient factors were assessed in the studies (n=45) and the second presenting the statistical significance (n=27) and size of the effect (n=11) of these factors on restoration survival. Patient-related factors mentioned in the studies included age; gender; caries risk; caries activity/severity; decayed, missing, filled teeth; number of restorations; oral hygiene; and bruxism, among others. Sixteen studies included the patient age or age range in the analysis, which was found to be significant in 47% of the studies. Regarding gender, four of 17 reports found a significant effect on survival, showing more failures for men in three studies. The caries risk profile or related variables were included in the analysis of 15 studies, and a significant effect on survival was reported for high-caries-risk individuals (or related variables) in 67% of these studies. Bruxism was also found to influence restoration survival in three of six studies where this variable was investigated. Some issues were found regarding the reporting of methods used to classify patients according to risk and were thoroughly discussed. In view of the information gathered in this review, the assessment of patient factors along with other variables should become part of clinical studies investigating restoration survival, since several of these factors were shown to influence the failure of restorations, regardless of the material type.

  6. On the Importance of Accounting for Competing Risks in Pediatric Cancer Trials Designed to Delay or Avoid Radiotherapy: I. Basic Concepts and First Analyses

    SciTech Connect

    Tai, Bee-Choo; Grundy, Richard G.; Machin, David

    2010-04-15

    Purpose: In trials designed to delay or avoid irradiation among children with malignant brain tumor, although irradiation after disease progression is an important event, patients who have disease progression may decline radiotherapy (RT), or those without disease progression may opt for elective RT. To accurately describe the cumulative need for RT in such instances, it is crucial to account for these distinct events and to evaluate how each contributes to the delay or advancement of irradiation via a competing risks analysis. Methods and Materials: We describe the summary of competing events in such trials using competing risks methods based on cumulative incidence functions and Gray's test. The results obtained are contrasted with standard survival methods based on Kaplan-Meier curves, cause-specific hazard functions and log-rank test. Results: The Kaplan-Meier method overestimates all event-specific rates. The cause-specific hazard analysis showed reduction in hazards for all events (A: RT after progression; B: no RT after progression; C: elective RT) among children with ependymoma. For event A, a higher cumulative incidence was reported for ependymoma. Although Gray's test failed to detect any difference (p = 0.331) between histologic subtypes, the log-rank test suggested marginal evidence (p = 0.057). Similarly, for event C, the log-rank test found stronger evidence of reduction in hazard among those with ependymoma (p = 0.005) as compared with Gray's test (p = 0.086). Conclusions: To evaluate treatment differences, failing to account for competing risks using appropriate methodology may lead to incorrect interpretations.

  7. Survival and Risk Comparison of Campylobacter jejuni on Various Processed Meat Products.

    PubMed

    Hong, Soo Hyeon; Kim, Han Sol; Yoon, Ki Sun

    2016-06-09

    The objective of this study was to investigate survival kinetics of Campylobacter jejuni on various processed meat products (dry-cured ham, round ham with/without sodium nitrite, garlic seasoned ham with/without sodium nitrite, and sausage without sodium nitrite). Additionally, a semi-quantitative risk assessment of C. jejuni on various processed meat products was conducted using FDA-iRISK 1.0. Inoculated processed meat products with 6.0 ± 0.5 log CFU/g of C. jejuni were vacuum packed and stored at 4, 10, 17, 24, 30, and 36 °C. Survival curves were fitted to the Weibull model to obtain the delta values of C. jejuni on various processed meat products. The most rapid death of C. jejuni was observed on dry-cured ham, followed by sausage without sodium nitrite. The results of semi-quantitative risk assessment indicate that dry-cured ham represented the lowest risk among all samples. C. jejuni on processed meats presented a greater risk at 4 °C than at 10 °C. The risk of ham was greater than the risk of sausage, regardless of type. Among all samples, the highest risk of C. jejuni was observed in round ham without sodium nitrite. Overall, our data indicates that risk of processed meat products due to C. jejuni is relatively low.

  8. Survival and Risk Comparison of Campylobacter jejuni on Various Processed Meat Products

    PubMed Central

    Hong, Soo Hyeon; Kim, Han Sol; Yoon, Ki Sun

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate survival kinetics of Campylobacter jejuni on various processed meat products (dry-cured ham, round ham with/without sodium nitrite, garlic seasoned ham with/without sodium nitrite, and sausage without sodium nitrite). Additionally, a semi-quantitative risk assessment of C. jejuni on various processed meat products was conducted using FDA-iRISK 1.0. Inoculated processed meat products with 6.0 ± 0.5 log CFU/g of C. jejuni were vacuum packed and stored at 4, 10, 17, 24, 30, and 36 °C. Survival curves were fitted to the Weibull model to obtain the delta values of C. jejuni on various processed meat products. The most rapid death of C. jejuni was observed on dry-cured ham, followed by sausage without sodium nitrite. The results of semi-quantitative risk assessment indicate that dry-cured ham represented the lowest risk among all samples. C. jejuni on processed meats presented a greater risk at 4 °C than at 10 °C. The risk of ham was greater than the risk of sausage, regardless of type. Among all samples, the highest risk of C. jejuni was observed in round ham without sodium nitrite. Overall, our data indicates that risk of processed meat products due to C. jejuni is relatively low. PMID:27294947

  9. Confidence interval procedures for system reliability and applications to competing risks models.

    PubMed

    Hong, Yili; Meeker, William Q

    2014-04-01

    System reliability depends on the reliability of the system's components and the structure of the system. For example, in a competing risks model, the system fails when the weakest component fails. The reliability function and the quantile function of a complicated system are two important metrics for characterizing the system's reliability. When there are data available at the component level, the system reliability can be estimated by using the component level information. Confidence intervals (CIs) are needed to quantify the statistical uncertainty in the estimation. Obtaining system reliability CI procedures with good properties is not straightforward, especially when the system structure is complicated. In this paper, we develop a general procedure for constructing a CI for the system failure-time quantile function by using the implicit delta method. We also develop general procedures for constructing a CI for the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the system. We show that the recommended procedures are asymptotically valid and have good statistical properties. We conduct simulations to study the finite-sample coverage properties of the proposed procedures and compare them with existing procedures. We apply the proposed procedures to three applications; two applications in competing risks models and an application with a k-out-of-s system. The paper concludes with some discussion and an outline of areas for future research.

  10. Vertical modelling: Analysis of competing risks data with missing causes of failure.

    PubMed

    Nicolaie, M A; van Houwelingen, H C; Putter, H

    2015-12-01

    We propose vertical modelling as a natural approach to the problem of analysis of competing risks data when failure types are missing for some individuals. Under a natural missing-at-random assumption for these missing failure types, we use the observed data likelihood to estimate its parameters and show that the all-cause hazard and the relative hazards appearing in vertical modelling are indeed key quantities of this likelihood. This fact has practical implications in that it suggests vertical modelling as a simple and attractive method of analysis in competing risks with missing causes of failure; all individuals are used in estimating the all-cause hazard and only those with non-missing cause of failure for relative hazards. The relative hazards also appear in a multiple imputation approach to the same problem proposed by Lu and Tsiatis and in the EM algorithm. We compare the vertical modelling approach with the method of Goetghebeur and Ryan for a breast cancer data set, highlighting the different aspects they contribute to the data analysis.

  11. Frailty modeling for clustered competing risks data with missing cause of failure.

    PubMed

    Lee, Minjung; Ha, Il Do; Lee, Youngjo

    2017-02-01

    Competing risks data often occur within a center in multi-center clinical trials where the event times within a center may be correlated due to unobserved factors across individuals. In this paper, we consider the cause-specific proportional hazards model with a shared frailty to model the association between the event times within a center in the framework of competing risks. We use a hierarchical likelihood approach, which does not require any intractable integration over the frailty terms. In a clinical trial, cause of death information may not be observed for some patients. In such a case, analyses through exclusion of cases with missing cause of death may lead to biased inferences. We propose a hierarchical likelihood approach for fitting the cause-specific proportional hazards model with a shared frailty in the presence of missing cause of failure. We use multiple imputation methods to address missing cause of death information under the assumption of missing at random. Simulation studies show that the proposed procedures perform well, even if the imputation model is misspecified. The proposed methods are illustrated with data from EORTC trial 30791 conducted by European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC).

  12. A competing risk analysis of sequential complication development in Asian type 2 diabetes mellitus patients.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Li-Jen; Chen, Jeng-Huei; Lin, Ming-Yen; Chen, Li-Chia; Lao, Chun-Huan; Luh, Hsing; Hwang, Shang-Jyh

    2015-10-28

    This retrospective cohort study investigated the progression risk of sequential complication in Asian type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients using the Taiwan Pay-for-Performance Diabetes Registry and claim data from November 2003 to February 2009. 226,310 adult T2D patients without complication were followed from diagnosis to complications, including myocardial infarction (MI), other ischemic heart disease (IHD), congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke, chronic kidney disease (CKD), retinopathy, amputation, death or to the end of study. Cumulative incidences (CIs) of first and second complications were analyzed in 30 and 4 years using the cumulative incidence competing risk method. IHD (29.8%), CKD (24.5%) and stroke (16.0%) are the most common first complications. The further development of T2D complications depends on a patient's existing complication profiles. Patients who initially developed cardiovascular complications had a higher risk (9.2% to 24.4%) of developing IHD or CKD, respectively. All-cause mortality was the most likely consequence for patients with a prior MI (12.0%), so as stroke in patients with a prior MI (10.8%) or IHD (8.9%). Patients with CKD had higher risk of developing IHD (16.3%), stroke (8.9%) and all-cause mortality (8.7%) than end-stage renal disease (4.0%). Following an amputation, patients had a considerable risk of all-cause mortality (42.1%).

  13. Competing-Risks Mortality After Radiotherapy vs. Observation for Localized Prostate Cancer: A Population-based Study

    SciTech Connect

    Abdollah, Firas; Sun, Maxine; Schmitges, Jan; Thuret, Rodolphe; Tian, Zhe; Shariat, Shahrokh F.; Briganti, Alberto; Jeldres, Claudio; Perrotte, Paul; Montorsi, Francesco; Karakiewicz, Pierre I.

    2012-09-01

    Purpose: Contemporary patients with localized prostate cancer (PCa) are more frequently treated with radiotherapy. However, there are limited data on the effect of this treatment on cancer-specific mortality (CSM). Our objective was to test the relationship between radiotherapy and survival in men with localized PCa and compare it with those treated with observation. Methods: A population-based cohort identified 68,797 men with cT1-T2 PCa treated with radiotherapy or observation between the years 1992 and 2005. Propensity-score matching was used to minimize potential bias related to treatment assignment. Competing-risks analyses tested the effect of treatment type (radiotherapy vs. observation) on CSM, after accounting to other-cause mortality. All analyses were carried out within PCa risk, baseline comorbidity status, and age groups. Results: Radiotherapy was associated with more favorable 10-year CSM rates than observation in patients with high-risk PCa (8.8 vs. 14.4%, hazard ratio [HR]: 0.59, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.50-0.68). Conversely, the beneficial effect of radiotherapy on CSM was not evident in patients with low-intermediate risk PCa (3.7 vs. 4.1%, HR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.80-1.04). Radiotherapy was beneficial in elderly patients (5.6 vs. 7.3%, HR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.59-0.80). Moreover, it was associated with improved CSM rates among patients with no comorbidities (5.7 vs. 6.5%, HR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.67-0.98), one comorbidity (4.6 vs. 6.0%, HR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.75-0.99), and more than two comorbidities (4.2 vs. 5.0%, HR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.65-0.96). Conclusions: Radiotherapy substantially improves CSM in patients with high-risk PCa, with little or no benefit in patients with low-/intermediate-risk PCa relative to observation. These findings must be interpreted within the context of the limitations of observational data.

  14. Combined blockade of VEGFR-3 and VLA-1 markedly promotes high-risk corneal transplant survival.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Hui; Grimaldo, Sammy; Yuen, Don; Chen, Lu

    2011-08-17

    PURPOSE. High-risk corneal transplantation refers to grafting performed on inflamed and highly vascularized host beds. It represents a clinical dilemma because the rejection rate can be as high as 90%, irrespective of current treatment modalities. This study was conducted to investigate whether combined blockade of VEGFR-3 (vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-3) and VLA-1 (very late antigen-1) promotes high-risk transplant survival and how it correlates with corneal lymphangiogenesis and hemangiogenesis before and after transplantation. METHODS. High-risk corneal transplantation was performed between normal C57BL/6 (donor) and inflamed BALB/c (recipient) mice. The recipients were randomized to receive intraperitoneal injections of VEGFR-3 and VLA-1-neutralizing antibodies or their controls twice a week for up to 8 weeks after transplantation. Corneal grafts were evaluated by ophthalmic slit-lamp biomicroscopy and analyzed by Kaplan-Meier survival curve. Additionally, whole-mount corneas before and after transplantation were examined by immunofluorescent microscopic assays, and the correlation between lymphatic or blood vessel distribution and transplant outcome was analyzed. RESULTS. The combined blockade markedly promotes 90% survival of high-risk transplants. This strategy specifically modified host beds by selective inhibition of lymphangiogenesis but not hemangiogenesis. A strong correlation was also identified between high-risk transplant rejection and severe lymphatic invasion reaching the donor-graft border. CONCLUSIONS. These novel findings not only provide a new and potentially powerful strategy to promote high-risk transplant survival, they also confirm a critical role of high-degree lymphangiogenesis in mediating high-risk transplant rejection. Results from this study may also shed new light on our understanding and management of other lymphatic- and immune-related diseases in general.

  15. Sociodemographic Risk, Developmental Competence, and PTSD Symptoms in Young Children Exposed to Interpersonal Trauma in Early Life

    PubMed Central

    Enlow, Michelle Bosquet; Blood, Emily; Egeland, Byron

    2014-01-01

    Children under age six years are disproportionately exposed to interpersonal trauma, including maltreatment and witnessing intimate partner violence (IPV), and may be particularly susceptible to negative sequelae. However, young children have generally been neglected from trauma research; thus, little is known about the factors influencing vulnerability to traumatic stress responses and other negative outcomes in early life. This study examined associations among interpersonal trauma exposure, sociodemographic risk, developmental competence, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms in 200 children assessed prospectively from birth to 1st grade via home and laboratory observations, record reviews, and maternal and teacher interviews. Greater trauma exposure and sociodemographic risk and lower developmental competence predicted more severe PTSD symptoms. Developmental competence partially mediated the association between exposures and symptoms. Trauma exposure fully mediated the association between sociodemographic risk and symptoms. Neither sociodemographic risk nor developmental competence moderated trauma exposure effects on symptoms. The findings suggest that (a) exposure to maltreatment and IPV has additive effects on posttraumatic stress risk in early life, (b) associations between sociodemographic adversity and poor mental health may be attributable to increased trauma exposure in disadvantaged populations, and (c) early exposures have a negative cascade effect on developmental competence and child mental health. PMID:24490247

  16. A competing-risk-based score for predicting twenty-year risk of incident diabetes: the Beijing Longitudinal Study of Ageing study

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Xiangtong; Chen, Zhenghong; Fine, Jason Peter; Liu, Long; Wang, Anxin; Guo, Jin; Tao, Lixin; Mahara, Gehendra; Yang, Kun; Zhang, Jie; Tian, Sijia; Li, Haibin; Liu, Kuo; Luo, Yanxia; Zhang, Feng; Tang, Zhe; Guo, Xiuhua

    2016-01-01

    Few risk tools have been proposed to quantify the long-term risk of diabetes among middle-aged and elderly individuals in China. The present study aimed to develop a risk tool to estimate the 20-year risk of developing diabetes while incorporating competing risks. A three-stage stratification random-clustering sampling procedure was conducted to ensure the representativeness of the Beijing elderly. We prospectively followed 1857 community residents aged 55 years and above who were free of diabetes at baseline examination. Sub-distribution hazards models were used to adjust for the competing risks of non-diabetes death. The cumulative incidence function of twenty-year diabetes event rates was 11.60% after adjusting for the competing risks of non-diabetes death. Age, body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, health status, and physical activity were selected to form the score. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.76 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.72–0.80), and the optimism-corrected AUC was 0.78 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.69–0.87) after internal validation by bootstrapping. The calibration plot showed that the actual diabetes risk was similar to the predicted risk. The cut-off value of the risk score was 19 points, marking mark the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients, which exhibited a sensitivity of 0.74 and specificity of 0.65. PMID:27849048

  17. Carfilzomib significantly improves the progression-free survival of high-risk patients in multiple myeloma

    PubMed Central

    Fonseca, Rafael; Siegel, David; Dimopoulos, Meletios A.; Špička, Ivan; Masszi, Tamás; Hájek, Roman; Rosiñol, Laura; Goranova-Marinova, Vesselina; Mihaylov, Georgi; Maisnar, Vladimír; Mateos, Maria-Victoria; Wang, Michael; Niesvizky, Ruben; Oriol, Albert; Jakubowiak, Andrzej; Minarik, Jiri; Palumbo, Antonio; Bensinger, William; Kukreti, Vishal; Ben-Yehuda, Dina; Stewart, A. Keith; Obreja, Mihaela; Moreau, Philippe

    2016-01-01

    The presence of certain high-risk cytogenetic abnormalities, such as translocations (4;14) and (14;16) and deletion (17p), are known to have a negative impact on survival in multiple myeloma (MM). The phase 3 study ASPIRE (N = 792) demonstrated that progression-free survival (PFS) was significantly improved with carfilzomib, lenalidomide, and dexamethasone (KRd), compared with lenalidomide and dexamethasone (Rd) in relapsed MM. This preplanned subgroup analysis of ASPIRE was conducted to evaluate KRd vs Rd by baseline cytogenetics according to fluorescence in situ hybridization. Of 417 patients with known cytogenetic risk status, 100 patients (24%) were categorized with high-risk cytogenetics (KRd, n = 48; Rd, n = 52) and 317 (76%) were categorized with standard-risk cytogenetics (KRd, n = 147; Rd, n = 170). For patients with high-risk cytogenetics, treatment with KRd resulted in a median PFS of 23.1 months, a 9-month improvement relative to treatment with Rd. For patients with standard-risk cytogenetics, treatment with KRd led to a 10-month improvement in median PFS vs Rd. The overall response rates for KRd vs Rd were 79.2% vs 59.6% (high-risk cytogenetics) and 91.2% vs 73.5% (standard-risk cytogenetics); approximately fivefold as many patients with high- or standard-risk cytogenetics achieved a complete response or better with KRd vs Rd (29.2% vs 5.8% and 38.1% vs 6.5%, respectively). KRd improved but did not abrogate the poor prognosis associated with high-risk cytogenetics. This regimen had a favorable benefit-risk profile in patients with relapsed MM, irrespective of cytogenetic risk status, and should be considered a standard of care in these patients. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT01080391. PMID:27439911

  18. Risk management in laboratory medicine: quality assurance programs and professional competence.

    PubMed

    Sciacovelli, Laura; Secchiero, Sandra; Zardo, Lorena; D'Osualdo, Alessandra; Plebani, Mario

    2007-01-01

    To guarantee excellent performance and service, the process of identifying and treating error risks must be integrated into the total testing process. Quality Assurance Programs (QAPs) represent an important tool that allows us to identify errors and pinpoint any need for further systematic investigations, and to rectify procedures to improve the inputs and processes by which the service is delivered. The models used by the laboratory to assure quality and manage the risk of errors have been modified in line with an approach in which the identification of quality goals and the redefinition of professionals duties and responsibilities are indispensable. Error risk is currently high in some areas of laboratory activity, and QAP is needed now more than ever. The present paper provides some descriptive examples of an approach that can be followed to manage an External Quality Assessment Scheme (EQAS) and quality indicators (QIs), the main tools used by laboratories to assure the quality of their service, for the prevention of error risk. In particular, we describe the correct approach to choose EQAS, to use information from the EQAS report, to design a QI model, and to analyze any QI data. The examples highlight that any well-designed quality system can be ineffective if it is not managed by highly competent professionals with a deep sense of responsibility.

  19. UNC13A confers risk for sporadic ALS and influences survival in a Spanish cohort.

    PubMed

    Vidal-Taboada, Jose Manuel; Lopez-Lopez, Alan; Salvado, Maria; Lorenzo, Laura; Garcia, Cecilia; Mahy, Nicole; Rodríguez, Manuel J; Gamez, Josep

    2015-10-01

    To investigate the association of functional variants of the human UNC13A gene with the risk of ALS, survival and the disease progression rate in a Spanish ALS cohort. 136 sporadic ALS (sALS) patients and 487 healthy controls were genotyped for the UNC13A rs12608932 variant. Clinical characterization of ALS patients included gender, age at first symptom, initial topography, disease progression rate, and survival. Genetic association was analyzed under five inheritance models. The sALS patients with the rs12608932(CC) genotype had an increased risk of ALS under a recessive genetic model [OR 2.16; 95 % CI (1.23, 3.8), p = 0.009; corrected p = 0.028]. Genotypes with a C allele are also associated with increased risk [OR 1.47; 95 % CI (1.11, 1.95); p = 0.008; corrected p = 0.023] under an additive model. sALS patients with a C/C genotype had a shorter survival than patients with A/A and A/C genotypes [HR 1.44; 95 % CI (1.11, 1.873); p = 0.007] under a recessive model. In an overdominant model, heterozygous patients had a longer survival than homozygous patients [HR 0.36; 95 % CI (0.22, 0.59); p = 0.001]. The rs12608932 genotypes modify the progression of symptoms measured using the ALSFRS-R. No association with age of onset, initial topography or rate of decline in FVC was found. Our results show that rs12608932 is a risk factor for ALS in the Spanish population and replicate the findings described in other populations. The rs12608932 is a modifying factor for survival and disease progression rate in our series. Our results also corroborated that it did not influence the age of onset.

  20. Patient death as a censoring event or competing risk event in models of nursing home placement.

    PubMed

    Szychowski, Jeff M; Roth, David L; Clay, Olivio J; Mittelman, Mary S

    2010-02-10

    Participant death is often observed in studies that examine predictors of events, such as hospitalization or institutionalization, in older adult populations. The Cox proportional hazards modeling of the target event, whereby death is treated as a censoring event, is the standard analysis in this competing risks situation. However, the assumption of noninformative censoring applied to a frequently occurring competing event like death may be invalid and complicate interpretation in terms of the probability of the event. Multiple cause-specific hazard (CSH) models can be estimated, but ambiguities may arise when interpreting covariate effects across multiple CSH models and in terms of the cumulative incidence function (CIF). Alternatively, one can model the proportional hazards of the subdistribution of the CIF and evaluate the covariate effects on the CIF directly. We examine and compare these two approaches with nursing home (NH) placement data from a randomized controlled trial of a counseling and support intervention for spouse-caregivers of patients with Alzheimer's disease. CSHs for NH placement (where death is treated as a censoring event) and death (where NH placement is treated as a censoring event) and subdistribution hazards of the CIF for NH placement are modeled separately. In the presence of multiple covariates, the intervention effect is significant in both approaches, but the interpretation of the covariate effects requires joint evaluation of all estimated models.

  1. Long-Term Survival and Risk of Second Cancers After Radiotherapy for Cervical Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Ohno, Tatsuya; Kato, Shingo; Sato, Shinichiro; Fukuhisa, Kenjiro; Nakano, Takashi; Tsujii, Hirohiko; Arai, Tatsuo

    2007-11-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the risk of second cancers after cervical cancer treated with radiotherapy for Asian populations. Methods and Materials: We reviewed 2,167 patients with cervical cancer undergoing radiotherapy between 1961 and 1986. Intracavitary brachytherapy was performed with high-dose rate source (82%) or low-dose rate source (12%). Relative risk (RR), absolute excess risk (AR), and cumulative risk of second cancer were calculated using the Japanese disease expectancy table. For 1,031 patients, the impact of smoking habit on the increasing risk of second cancer was also evaluated. Results: The total number of person-years of follow-up was 25,771, with 60 patients being lost to follow-up. Among the 2,167 patients, 1,063 (49%) survived more than 10 years. Second cancers were observed in 210 patients, representing a significant 1.2-fold risk (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-1.4) of developing second cancer compared with the general population, 1.6% excess risk per person per decade of follow-up, and elevating cumulative risk up to 23.8% (95% CI, 20.3-27.3) at 30 years after radiotherapy. The RR of second cancer was 1.6-fold for patients with the smoking habit and 1.4-fold for those without. Conclusions: Small but significant increased risk of second cancer was observed among Japanese women with cervical cancer mainly treated with high-dose rate brachytherapy. Considering the fact that about half of the patients survived more than 10 years, the benefit of radiotherapy outweighs the risk of developing second cancer.

  2. Genetic polymorphisms in the vitamin D pathway in relation to lung cancer risk and survival

    PubMed Central

    Kong, Jinyu; Xu, Fangxiu; Qu, Jinli; Wang, Yu; Gao, Ming; Yu, Herbert; Qian, Biyun

    2015-01-01

    Studies have suggested that vitamin D may have protective effects against cancer development or tumor progression. To search for additional evidence, we investigated the role of genetic polymorphisms involved in the vitamin D pathway in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We evaluated common genetic polymorphisms associated with the vitamin D pathway in relation to NSCLC in a case-control study of 603 newly diagnosed NSCLC patients and 661 matched healthy controls. Seven single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genotyped, the expression of CYP27B1 and CYP24A1 were measured in 153 tumor samples and their associations with genotypes and patient survival were also analyzed. In the case-control comparison, we found SNP rs3782130 (CYP27B1), rs7041 (GC), rs6068816 and rs4809957 (CYP24A1) associated with NSCLC risk. The risk of NSCLC was increased with the number of risk alleles. CYP27B1 and CYP24A1 expression were significantly different between tumor and normal tissues in NSCLC. High CYP27B1 expression was associated with better overall survival, and the expression was different by the rs3782130 genotype. The study suggests that some genetic polymorphisms involved in the vitamin D pathway may associate with NSCLC risk, and one of the polymorphisms (rs3782130) may affect gene expression and patient survival. PMID:25544771

  3. Nonparametric analysis of competing risks data with event category missing at random.

    PubMed

    Gouskova, Natalia A; Lin, Feng-Chang; Fine, Jason P

    2017-03-01

    In competing risks setup, the data for each subject consist of the event time, censoring indicator, and event category. However, sometimes the information about the event category can be missing, as, for example, in a case when the date of death is known but the cause of death is not available. In such situations, treating subjects with missing event category as censored leads to the underestimation of the hazard functions. We suggest nonparametric estimators for the cumulative cause-specific hazards and the cumulative incidence functions which use the Nadaraya-Watson estimator to obtain the contribution of an event with missing category to each of the cause-specific hazards. We derive the propertied of the proposed estimators. Optimal bandwidth is determined, which minimizes the mean integrated squared errors of the proposed estimators over time. The methodology is illustrated using data on lung infections in patients from the United States Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry.

  4. CURRENT STATUS DATA WITH COMPETING RISKS: LIMITING DISTRIBUTION OF THE MLE

    PubMed Central

    Groeneboom, Piet; Maathuis, Marloes H.; Wellner, Jon A.

    2009-01-01

    We study nonparametric estimation for current status data with competing risks. Our main interest is in the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), and for comparison we also consider a simpler ‘naive estimator’. Groeneboom, Maathuis and Wellner [8] proved that both types of estimators converge globally and locally at rate n1/3. We use these results to derive the local limiting distributions of the estimators. The limiting distribution of the naive estimator is given by the slopes of the convex minorants of correlated Brownian motion processes with parabolic drifts. The limiting distribution of the MLE involves a new self-induced limiting process. Finally, we present a simulation study showing that the MLE is superior to the naive estimator in terms of mean squared error, both for small sample sizes and asymptotically. PMID:19888358

  5. Geometry of the q-exponential distribution with dependent competing risks and accelerated life testing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Fode; Shi, Yimin; Wang, Ruibing

    2017-02-01

    In the information geometry suggested by Amari (1985) and Amari et al. (1987), a parametric statistical model can be regarded as a differentiable manifold with the parameter space as a coordinate system. Note that the q-exponential distribution plays an important role in Tsallis statistics (see Tsallis, 2009), this paper investigates the geometry of the q-exponential distribution with dependent competing risks and accelerated life testing (ALT). A copula function based on the q-exponential function, which can be considered as the generalized Gumbel copula, is discussed to illustrate the structure of the dependent random variable. Employing two iterative algorithms, simulation results are given to compare the performance of estimations and levels of association under different hybrid progressively censoring schemes (HPCSs).

  6. Connection between competence, usability, environment and risk of falls in elderly adults

    PubMed Central

    Leiva-Caro, José Alex; Salazar-González, Bertha Cecilia; Gallegos-Cabriales, Esther Carlota; Gómez-Meza, Marco Vinicio; Hunter, Kathleen F.

    2015-01-01

    Objective: to determine connections between competence, usability, environment and risk of falls in elderly adults. Method: correlational descriptive study, 123 elderly adults, both male and female, aged 70 years and older were included. Data was collected via the Tinetti Scale, CESD-7 Scale, Montreal Cognitive Assessment, Usability Questionnaire on Housing and Housing Enabler; and sociodemographic and health background certificate data. For data analysis, descriptive and inferential statistics were used, multivariate linear and logistic regression models were adjusted. Results: 42.0% of the elderly adults had presented with falls, with a higher prevalence in women, and in the group of 70-75 years. The physical environment of the house, gait, and usability were set as risk factors for falls. A negative relationship between usability and depressive symptoms, cognitive health, balance, gait, the social and physical environment was found, p <0.05; and a strong positive correlation between walking and balance, p <0.05. Conclusion: this study helps to better understand the phenomenon of falling, to find a connection between usability with the risk of falls, and other variables. PMID:26626006

  7. Incidence and survival of stomach cancer in a high-risk population of Chile

    PubMed Central

    Heise, Katy; Bertran, Enriqueta; Andia, Marcelo E; Ferreccio, Catterina

    2009-01-01

    AIM: To study the incidence and survival rate of stomach cancer (SC) and its associated factors in a high risk population in Chile. METHODS: The population-based cancer registry of Valdivia, included in the International Agency for Research on Cancer system, covers 356 396 residents of Valdivia Province, Southern Chile. We studied all SC cases entered in this Registry during 1998-2002 (529 cases). Population data came from the Chilean census (2002). Standardized incidence rates per 100 000 inhabitants (SIR) using the world population, cumulative risk of developing cancer before age 75, and rate ratios by sex, age, ethnicity and social factors were estimated. Relative survival (Ederer II method) and age-standardized estimates (Brenner method) were calculated. Specific survival rates (Kaplan-Meier) were measured at 3 and 5 years and survival curves were analyzed with the Logrank and Breslow tests. Survival was studied in relation to demographics, clinical presentation, laboratory results and medical management of the cases. Those variables significantly associated with survival were later included in a Cox multivariate model. RESULTS: Between 1998 and 2002, 529 primary gastric cancers occurred in Valdivia (crude incidence rate 29.2 per 100 000 inhabitants). Most cases were male (69.0%), residents of urban areas (57.5%) and Hispanic (83.2%), with a low education level (84.5% < 8 school years). SC SIR was higher in men than women (40.8 and 14.8 respectively, P < 0.001), risk factors were low education RR 4.4 (95% CI: 2.9-6.8) and 1.6, (95% CI: 1.1-2.1) for women and men respectively and Mapuche ethnicity only significant for women (RR 2.2, 95% CI: 1.2-3.7). Of all cases, 76.4% were histologically confirmed, 11.5% had a death certificate only (DCO), 56.1% were TNM stage IV; 445 cases (84.1%) were eligible for survival analysis, all completed five years follow-up; 42 remained alive, 392 died of SC and 11 died from other causes. Specific 5-year survival, excluding cases

  8. Genetic polymorphisms in MMP 2, 9 and 3 genes modify lung cancer risk and survival

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Matrix metalloproteases (MMPs) are proteolytic enzymes that contribute to all stages of tumour progression, including the later stages of invasion and metastasis. Genetic variants in the MMP genes may influence the biological function of these enzymes and change their role in carcinogenesis and progression. We have investigated the association between the -735 C/T, the -1171 5A/6A, and the -1562 C/T polymorphisms in the MMP2, MMP3 and MMP9 genes, respectively, and the risk and survival of lung cancer. Methods The case-control study includes 879 lung cancer patients and 803 controls from a Caucasian population in Spain (CAPUA study). Genotypes were determined by PCR-RFLP. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using unconditional logistic regression. The Kaplan-Meier method, long-rank test and Cox's were used for the survival analysis. Results The MMP9 -1562 T/T genotype was associated with a statistically significant decreased risk of developing lung cancer (OR = 0.23; 95% CI: 0.06-0.85), whereas no association was found for the MMP2 -735 C/T and MMP3 -1171 5A/6A polymorphisms. The MMP2 -735 T/T genotype was statistically significantly associated with a decreased survival in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients, identified as an independent prognosis factor of survival (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.79; 95% CI: 1.00-3.20). In contrast, no association was found between the MMP3 -1171 5A/6A and the MMP9 -1562 C/T polymorphisms and survival. Conclusions These findings support the hypothesis that the MMP9 -1562 C/T polymorphism is associated with a protective effect against the development of lung cancer and suggest that the MMP2 -735 C/T polymorphism modify the length of survival in NSCLC patients. PMID:22455335

  9. Effect of autoimmune diseases on risk and survival in histology-specific lung cancer.

    PubMed

    Hemminki, Kari; Liu, Xiangdong; Ji, Jianguang; Sundquist, Jan; Sundquist, Kristina

    2012-12-01

    Patients with autoimmune diseases are at an increased risk of cancer due to underlying dysregulation of the immune system or treatment. Data on cancer incidence, mortality and survival after autoimmune diseases would provide further information on the clinical implications. We systematically analysed data on lung cancer in patients diagnosed with 33 different autoimmune diseases. Standardised incidence ratios (SIRs), standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated for subsequent incident lung cancers or lung cancer deaths up to 2008 in patients hospitalised for autoimmune disease after 1964. Increased risks of lung cancer were recorded for SIRs after 12 autoimmune diseases, SMRs after 11 autoimmune diseases and HRs after two autoimmune diseases. The highest SIRs and SMRs, respectively, were seen after discoid lupus erythematosus (4.71 and 4.80), polymyosistis/dermatomyositis (4.20 and 4.17), systemic lupus erythematosus (2.47 and 2.69), rheumatic fever (2.07 and 2.07) and systemic sclerosis (2.19 and 1.98). Autoimmune disease did not influence survival overall but some autoimmune diseases appeared to impair survival in small cell carcinoma. All autoimmune diseases that had an SIR >2.0 are known to present with lung manifestations, suggesting that the autoimmune process contributes to lung cancer susceptibility. The data on survival are reassuring that autoimmune diseases do not influence prognosis in lung cancer.

  10. Thrombotic Thrombocytopenic Purpura in Black People: Impact of Ethnicity on Survival and Genetic Risk Factors.

    PubMed

    Martino, Suella; Jamme, Mathieu; Deligny, Christophe; Busson, Marc; Loiseau, Pascale; Azoulay, Elie; Galicier, Lionel; Pène, Frédéric; Provôt, François; Dossier, Antoine; Saheb, Samir; Veyradier, Agnès; Coppo, Paul

    2016-01-01

    Black people are at increased risk of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP). Whether clinical presentation of TTP in Black patients has specific features is unknown. We assessed here differences in TTP presentation and outcome between Black and White patients. Clinical presentation was comparable between both ethnic groups. However, prognosis differed with a lower death rate in Black patients than in White patients (2.7% versus 11.6%, respectively, P = .04). Ethnicity, increasing age and neurologic involvement were retained as risk factors for death in a multivariable model (P < .05 all). Sixty-day overall survival estimated by the Kaplan-Meier curves and compared with the Log-Rank test confirmed that Black patients had a better survival than White patients (P = .03). Salvage therapies were similarly performed between both groups, suggesting that disease severity was comparable. The comparison of HLA-DRB1*11, -DRB1*04 and -DQB1*03 allele frequencies between Black patients and healthy Black individuals revealed no significant difference. However, the protective allele against TTP, HLA-DRB1*04, was dramatically decreased in Black individuals in comparison with White individuals. Black people with TTP may have a better survival than White patients despite a comparable disease severity. A low natural frequency of HLA-DRB1*04 in Black ethnicity may account for the greater risk of TTP in this population.

  11. Thrombotic Thrombocytopenic Purpura in Black People: Impact of Ethnicity on Survival and Genetic Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Martino, Suella; Jamme, Mathieu; Deligny, Christophe; Busson, Marc; Loiseau, Pascale; Azoulay, Elie; Galicier, Lionel; Pène, Frédéric; Provôt, François; Dossier, Antoine; Saheb, Samir; Veyradier, Agnès; Coppo, Paul

    2016-01-01

    Black people are at increased risk of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP). Whether clinical presentation of TTP in Black patients has specific features is unknown. We assessed here differences in TTP presentation and outcome between Black and White patients. Clinical presentation was comparable between both ethnic groups. However, prognosis differed with a lower death rate in Black patients than in White patients (2.7% versus 11.6%, respectively, P = .04). Ethnicity, increasing age and neurologic involvement were retained as risk factors for death in a multivariable model (P < .05 all). Sixty-day overall survival estimated by the Kaplan-Meier curves and compared with the Log-Rank test confirmed that Black patients had a better survival than White patients (P = .03). Salvage therapies were similarly performed between both groups, suggesting that disease severity was comparable. The comparison of HLA-DRB1*11, -DRB1*04 and -DQB1*03 allele frequencies between Black patients and healthy Black individuals revealed no significant difference. However, the protective allele against TTP, HLA-DRB1*04, was dramatically decreased in Black individuals in comparison with White individuals. Black people with TTP may have a better survival than White patients despite a comparable disease severity. A low natural frequency of HLA-DRB1*04 in Black ethnicity may account for the greater risk of TTP in this population. PMID:27383202

  12. Multicenter study on caries risk assessment in adults using survival Classification and Regression Trees

    PubMed Central

    Arino, Masumi; Ito, Ataru; Fujiki, Shozo; Sugiyama, Seiichi; Hayashi, Mikako

    2016-01-01

    Dental caries is an important public health problem worldwide. This study aims to prove how preventive therapies reduce the onset of caries in adult patients, and to identify patients with high or low risk of caries by using Classification and Regression Trees based survival analysis (survival CART). A clinical data set of 732 patients aged 20 to 64 years in nine Japanese general practices was analyzed with the following parameters: age, DMFT, number of mutans streptococci (SM) and Lactobacilli (LB), secretion rate and buffer capacity of saliva, and compliance with a preventive program. Results showed the incidence of primary carious lesion was affected by SM, LB and compliance with a preventive program; secondary carious lesion was affected by DMFT, SM and LB. Survival CART identified high-risk patients for primary carious lesion according to their poor compliance with a preventive program and SM (≥106 CFU/ml) with a hazard ratio of 3.66 (p = 0.0002). In the case of secondary caries, patients with LB (≥105 CFU/ml) and DMFT (>15) were identified as high risk with a hazard ratio of 3.50 (p < 0.0001). We conclude that preventive programs can be effective in limiting the incidence of primary carious lesion. PMID:27381750

  13. Modeling the survival kinetics of Salmonella in tree nuts for use in risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Santillana Farakos, Sofia M; Pouillot, Régis; Anderson, Nathan; Johnson, Rhoma; Son, Insook; Van Doren, Jane

    2016-06-16

    Salmonella has been shown to survive in tree nuts over long periods of time. This survival capacity and its variability are key elements for risk assessment of Salmonella in tree nuts. The aim of this study was to develop a mathematical model to predict survival of Salmonella in tree nuts at ambient storage temperatures that considers variability and uncertainty separately and can easily be incorporated into a risk assessment model. Data on Salmonella survival on raw almonds, pecans, pistachios and walnuts were collected from the peer reviewed literature. The Weibull model was chosen as the baseline model and various fixed effect and mixed effect models were fit to the data. The best model identified through statistical analysis testing was then used to develop a hierarchical Bayesian model. Salmonella in tree nuts showed slow declines at temperatures ranging from 21°C to 24°C. A high degree of variability in survival was observed across tree nut studies reported in the literature. Statistical analysis results indicated that the best applicable model was a mixed effect model that included a fixed and random variation of δ per tree nut (which is the time it takes for the first log10 reduction) and a fixed variation of ρ per tree nut (parameter which defines the shape of the curve). Higher estimated survival rates (δ) were obtained for Salmonella on pistachios, followed in decreasing order by pecans, almonds and walnuts. The posterior distributions obtained from Bayesian inference were used to estimate the variability in the log10 decrease levels in survival for each tree nut, and the uncertainty of these estimates. These modeled uncertainty and variability distributions of the estimates can be used to obtain a complete exposure assessment of Salmonella in tree nuts when including time-temperature parameters for storage and consumption data. The statistical approach presented in this study may be applied to any studies that aim to develop predictive models to be

  14. A Simple Risk Model to Predict Survival in Patients With Carcinoma of Unknown Primary Origin.

    PubMed

    Huang, Chen-Yang; Lu, Chang-Hsien; Yang, Chan-Keng; Hsu, Hung-Chih; Kuo, Yung-Chia; Huang, Wen-Kuan; Chen, Jen-Shi; Lin, Yung-Chang; Chia-Yen, Hung; Shen, Wen-Chi; Chang, Pei-Hung; Yeh, Kun-Yun; Hung, Yu-Shin; Chou, Wen-Chi

    2015-11-01

    Carcinoma of unknown primary origin (CUP) is characterized by diverse histological subtypes and clinical presentations, ranging from clinically indolent to frankly aggressive behaviors. This study aimed to identify prognostic factors of CUP and to develop a simple risk model to predict survival in a cohort of Asian patients.We retrospectively reviewed 190 patients diagnosed with CUP between 2007 and 2012 at a single medical center in Taiwan. The clinicopathological parameters and outcomes of our cohort were analyzed. A risk model was developed using multivariate logistic regression and a prognostic score was generated.The prognostic score was calculated based on 3 independent prognostic variables: the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) scale (0 points if the score was 1, 2 points if it was 2-4), visceral organ involvement (0 points if no involvement, 1 point if involved), and the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (0 points if ≤3, 1 point if >3). Patients were stratified into good (score 0), intermediate (score 1-2), and poor (score 3-4) prognostic groups based on the risk model. The median survival (95% confidence interval) was 1086 days (500-1617, n = 42), 305 days (237-372, n = 75), and 64 days (44-84, n = 73) for the good, intermediate, and poor prognostic groups, respectively. The c-statistics using the risk model and ECOG scale for the outcome of 1-year mortality were 0.80 and 0.70 (P = 0.038), respectively.In this study, we developed a simple risk model that accurately predicted survival in patients with CUP. This scoring system may be used to help patients and clinicians determine appropriate treatments.

  15. Examining the role of methamphetamine in permanency: A competing risks analysis of reunification, guardianship, and adoption.

    PubMed

    Akin, Becci A; Brook, Jody; Lloyd, Margaret H

    2015-03-01

    Parental methamphetamine use has drawn significant attention in recent years. Despite prior research that shows that parental substance abuse is a risk factor for lengthy foster care stay, little is known about the effect of specific types of substance use on permanency. This study sought to compare the impact of parental methamphetamine use to alcohol use, other drug use, and polysubstance use on the timing of 3 types of permanency: reunification, guardianship, and adoption. Using an entry cohort of 16,620 children who had entered foster care during a 5-year period, competing risks event history models were conducted for each permanency type. Findings showed that, after controlling for several case characteristics, parent illicit drug use significantly impacted the timing of the 3 types of permanency, but alcohol use did not. Methamphetamine, other drug, and polysubstance with methamphetamine use were associated with lower rates of reunification and higher rates of adoption. Guardianship was also predicted by other drug and polysubstance use without methamphetamine; however, methamphetamine use was not associated with guardianship. Notably, the methamphetamine groups comprised the youngest children and had the shortest median time to adoption. Results suggest that type of parental substance use is predictive of permanency exits and that parental illicit drug use may require tailored strategies for improving permanency outcomes. Further implications of the findings are discussed.

  16. A Proportional Hazards Regression Model for the Sub-distribution with Covariates Adjusted Censoring Weight for Competing Risks Data

    PubMed Central

    HE, PENG; ERIKSSON, FRANK; SCHEIKE, THOMAS H.; ZHANG, MEI-JIE

    2015-01-01

    With competing risks data, one often needs to assess the treatment and covariate effects on the cumulative incidence function. Fine and Gray proposed a proportional hazards regression model for the subdistribution of a competing risk with the assumption that the censoring distribution and the covariates are independent. Covariate-dependent censoring sometimes occurs in medical studies. In this paper, we study the proportional hazards regression model for the subdistribution of a competing risk with proper adjustments for covariate-dependent censoring. We consider a covariate-adjusted weight function by fitting the Cox model for the censoring distribution and using the predictive probability for each individual. Our simulation study shows that the covariate-adjusted weight estimator is basically unbiased when the censoring time depends on the covariates, and the covariate-adjusted weight approach works well for the variance estimator as well. We illustrate our methods with bone marrow transplant data from the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR). Here cancer relapse and death in complete remission are two competing risks. PMID:27034534

  17. Sensation Seeking: A Potential Factor Influencing Perceived Risk and Perceived Competence in an Introductory Scuba Diving Course

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morgan, Cass

    2009-01-01

    This study examined the relationship between the sensation-seeking personality trait to changes in perceived risk and perceived competence during an adventure experience. Participants (n = 57) were enrolled in a 14-week introductory scuba diving course offered at a university in eastern North Carolina in 2006. The data was analyzed using a…

  18. Cumulative Risk, the Mother-Child Relationship, and Social-Emotional Competence in Latino Head Start Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martí, Maria; Bonillo, Albert; Jané, Maria Claustre; Fisher, Elisa M.; Duch, Helena

    2016-01-01

    Research Findings: Supportive mother-child interactions promote the development of social-emotional competence. Poverty and other associated psychosocial risk factors have a negative impact on mother-child interaction. In spite of Latino children being disproportionately represented among children living in poverty, research on mother-child…

  19. Perception of Competence: Risk and Protective Predictors Following an E-Self-Advocacy Intervention for Adolescents with Learning Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kotzer, Efrat; Margalit, Malka

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify predictors of competence among adolescents with learning disabilities (LD) who participated in a virtual supported self-advocacy programme within the risk and protective paradigm. The sample consisted of 374 adolescents with and without learning disabilities, students of the 7th to 9th grades, at 15…

  20. Environmental risk assessment of replication competent viral vectors applied in clinical trials: potential effects of inserted sequences.

    PubMed

    van den Akker, Eric; van der Vlugt, Cecile J B; Bleijs, Diederik A; Bergmans, Hans E

    2013-12-01

    Risk assessments of clinical applications involving genetically modified viral vectors are carried out according to general principles that are implemented in many national and regional legislations, e.g., in Directive 2001/18/EC of the European Union. Recent developments in vector design have a large impact on the concepts that underpin the risk assessments of viral vectors that are used in clinical trials. The use of (conditionally) replication competent viral vectors (RCVVs) may increase the likelihood of the exposure of the environment around the patient, compared to replication defective viral vectors. Based on this assumption we have developed a methodology for the environmental risk assessment of replication competent viral vectors, which is presented in this review. Furthermore, the increased likelihood of exposure leads to a reevaluation of what would constitute a hazardous gene product in viral vector therapies, and a keen interest in new developments in the inserts used. One of the trends is the use of inserts produced by synthetic biology. In this review the implications of these developments for the environmental risk assessment of RCVVs are highlighted, with examples from current clinical trials. The conclusion is drawn that RCVVs, notwithstanding their replication competency, can be applied in an environmentally safe way, in particular if adequate built-in safeties are incorporated, like conditional replication competency, as mitigating factors to reduce adverse environmental effects that could occur.

  1. MRI breast screening in high-risk women: cancer detection and survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Evans, D Gareth; Gareth, Evans D; Kesavan, Nisha; Nisha, Kesavan; Lim, Yit; Yit, Lim; Gadde, Soujanye; Soujanye, Gadde; Hurley, Emma; Emma, Hurley; Massat, Nathalie J; Maxwell, Anthony J; Ingham, Sarah; Sarah, Ingham; Eeles, Rosalind; Rosalind, Eeles; Leach, Martin O; Howell, Anthony; Anthony, Howell; Duffy, Stephen W; Stephen, Duffy

    2014-06-01

    Women with a genetic predisposition to breast cancer tend to develop the disease at a younger age with denser breasts making mammography screening less effective. The introduction of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for familial breast cancer screening programs in recent years was intended to improve outcomes in these women. We aimed to assess whether introduction of MRI surveillance improves 5- and 10-year survival of high-risk women and determine the accuracy of MRI breast cancer detection compared with mammography-only or no enhanced surveillance and compare size and pathology of cancers detected in women screened with MRI + mammography and mammography only. We used data from two prospective studies where asymptomatic women with a very high breast cancer risk were screened by either mammography alone or with MRI also compared with BRCA1/2 carriers with no intensive surveillance. 63 cancers were detected in women receiving MRI + mammography and 76 in women receiving mammography only. Sensitivity of MRI + mammography was 93 % with 63 % specificity. Fewer cancers detected on MRI were lymph node positive compared to mammography/no additional screening. There were no differences in 10-year survival between the MRI + mammography and mammography-only groups, but survival was significantly higher in the MRI-screened group (95.3 %) compared to no intensive screening (73.7 %; p = 0.002). There were no deaths among the 21 BRCA2 carriers receiving MRI. There appears to be benefit from screening with MRI, particularly in BRCA2 carriers. Extended follow-up of larger numbers of high-risk women is required to assess long-term survival.

  2. Prediction of long-term cumulative incidences based on short-term parametric model for competing risks: application in early breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Cabarrou, B; Belin, L; Somda, S M; Falcou, M C; Pierga, J Y; Kirova, Y; Delord, J P; Asselain, B; Filleron, T

    2016-04-01

    Use of parametric statistical models can be a solution to reduce the follow-up period time required to estimate long-term survival. Mould and Boag were the first to use the lognormal model. Competing risks methodology seems more suitable when a particular event type is of interest than classical survival analysis. The objective was to evaluate the ability of the Jeong and Fine model to predict long-term cumulative incidence. Survival data recorded by Institut Curie (Paris) from 4761 breast cancer patients treated and followed between 1981 and 2013 were used. Long-term cumulative incidence rates predicted by the model using short-term follow-up data were compared to non-parametric estimation using complete follow-up data. 20- or 25-year cumulative incidence rates for loco-regional recurrence and distant metastasis predicted by the model using a maximum of 10 years of follow-up data had a maximum difference of around 6 % compared to non-parametric estimation. Prediction rates were underestimated for the third and composite event (contralateral or second cancer or death). Predictive ability of Jeong and Fine model on breast cancer data was generally good considering the short follow-up period time used for the estimation especially when a proportion of patient did not experience loco-regional recurrence or distant metastasis.

  3. Statin use and breast cancer survival and risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Li, Yuan-Yuan; Zhu, Jingjing; Qian, Ke-Qing; Li, Wen-Jing; Wu, Lang

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the associations between statin use and breast cancer survival and risk by performing a systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched PubMed, Embase and Web of Science up to August 2015 for identifying relevant prospective or case-control studies, or randomized clinical trials. Five prospective studies involving 60,911 patients reported the association between statin use and breast cancer mortality. Eleven prospective studies, 12 case-control studies and 9 randomized clinical trials involving 83,919 patients reported the association between statin use and breast cancer risk. After pooling estimates from all available studies, there was a significantly negative association between pre-diagnosis statin use and breast cancer mortality (for overall survival (OS): hazard ratio (HR) = 0.68, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54–0.84; for disease specific survival (DSS): HR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.53–0.99). There was also a significant inverse association between post-diagnosis statin use and breast cancer DSS (HR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.43–0.98), although the association with breast cancer OS did not reach statistical significance (HR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.48–1.07). Additionally, there was a non-linear relationship for the duration of post-diagnosis statin use with breast cancer specific mortality. On the other hand, with regards to the relationship between statin use and breast cancer risk, no significant association was detected. Our analyses suggest that although statin use may not influence breast cancer risk, the use of statin may be associated with decrease mortality of breast cancer patients. Further large-scale studies are warranted to validate our findings. PMID:26472026

  4. Using cross-validation to evaluate predictive accuracy of survival risk classifiers based on high-dimensional data.

    PubMed

    Simon, Richard M; Subramanian, Jyothi; Li, Ming-Chung; Menezes, Supriya

    2011-05-01

    Developments in whole genome biotechnology have stimulated statistical focus on prediction methods. We review here methodology for classifying patients into survival risk groups and for using cross-validation to evaluate such classifications. Measures of discrimination for survival risk models include separation of survival curves, time-dependent ROC curves and Harrell's concordance index. For high-dimensional data applications, however, computing these measures as re-substitution statistics on the same data used for model development results in highly biased estimates. Most developments in methodology for survival risk modeling with high-dimensional data have utilized separate test data sets for model evaluation. Cross-validation has sometimes been used for optimization of tuning parameters. In many applications, however, the data available are too limited for effective division into training and test sets and consequently authors have often either reported re-substitution statistics or analyzed their data using binary classification methods in order to utilize familiar cross-validation. In this article we have tried to indicate how to utilize cross-validation for the evaluation of survival risk models; specifically how to compute cross-validated estimates of survival distributions for predicted risk groups and how to compute cross-validated time-dependent ROC curves. We have also discussed evaluation of the statistical significance of a survival risk model and evaluation of whether high-dimensional genomic data adds predictive accuracy to a model based on standard covariates alone.

  5. Estimation of the standardized risk difference and ratio in a competing risks framework: application to injection drug use and progression to AIDS after initiation of antiretroviral therapy.

    PubMed

    Cole, Stephen R; Lau, Bryan; Eron, Joseph J; Brookhart, M Alan; Kitahata, Mari M; Martin, Jeffrey N; Mathews, William C; Mugavero, Michael J

    2015-02-15

    There are few published examples of absolute risk estimated from epidemiologic data subject to censoring and competing risks with adjustment for multiple confounders. We present an example estimating the effect of injection drug use on 6-year risk of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) after initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy between 1998 and 2012 in an 8-site US cohort study with death before AIDS as a competing risk. We estimate the risk standardized to the total study sample by combining inverse probability weights with the cumulative incidence function; estimates of precision are obtained by bootstrap. In 7,182 patients (83% male, 33% African American, median age of 38 years), we observed 6-year standardized AIDS risks of 16.75% among 1,143 injection drug users and 12.08% among 6,039 nonusers, yielding a standardized risk difference of 4.68 (95% confidence interval: 1.27, 8.08) and a standardized risk ratio of 1.39 (95% confidence interval: 1.12, 1.72). Results may be sensitive to the assumptions of exposure-version irrelevance, no measurement bias, and no unmeasured confounding. These limitations suggest that results be replicated with refined measurements of injection drug use. Nevertheless, estimating the standardized risk difference and ratio is straightforward, and injection drug use appears to increase the risk of AIDS.

  6. Allelic expression imbalance polymorphisms in susceptibility chromosome regions and the risk and survival of breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Lin, Wei; Lin, Hong-Da; Guo, Xing-Yi; Lin, Ying; Su, Feng-Xi; Jia, Wei-Hua; Tang, Lu-Ying; Zheng, Wei; Long, Ji-Rong; Ren, Ze-Fang

    2017-01-01

    Allelic expression imbalance (AEI) has been applied to indicate potential function of genetic variants. Combining earlier results from global differential allele-specific expression analysis and genome wide association studies (GWASs), we select the single nuclear polymorphisms (SNPs) exhibiting AEI phenomenon located in breast cancer susceptibility chromosome regions, and evaluate their associations with breast cancer risk and survival. We examined the genotypes of 10 AEI SNPs in 1551 incident breast cancer cases and 1605 age-frequency matched controls from Guangzhou, China. In total, 1168 cases were followed up. MUC16 rs2591592 (AT/AA vs. TT) was associated with an increased risk of premenopausal breast cancer (OR [95%CI]: 1.30 [1.07, 1.57]); SLAMF1 rs1061217 (CT/TT vs. CC) decreased the risk of breast cancer among overweight women (OR [95%CI]: 0.74 [0.57, 0.96]) but increased the risk among normal-weight women (OR [95%CI]: 1.15 [1.01, 1.39]); ZNF331 rs8109631 (AG/AA vs. GG) and CHRAC1 rs10216653 (GC/GG vs. CC) were associated with progression free survival among breast cancer patients with negative ER/PR status and higher clinical stage (HRs [95%CIs]: 2.39 [1.14, 5.00], 1.85 [1.03, 3.32], and 0.49 [0.30, 0.80], respectively). ZNF331 rs8109631 and CHRAC1 rs10216653 were further found to represent several functional SNPs through bioinformatic analysis. In conclusion, our findings demonstrated suggestive associations of AEI polymorphisms with breast cancer risk (MUC16 rs2591592 and SLAMF1 rs1061217) and prognosis (ZNF331 rs8109631 and CHRAC1 rs10216653). © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Investigating the association between allergen-specific immunoglobulin E, cancer risk and survival

    PubMed Central

    Wulaningsih, Wahyu; Holmberg, Lars; Garmo, Hans; Karagiannis, Sophia N.; Ahlstedt, Staffan; Malmstrom, Håkan; Lambe, Mats; Hammar, Niklas; Walldius, Göran; Jungner, Ingmar; Ng, Tony; Van Hemelrijck, Mieke

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Prior findings linking allergy and cancer have been inconsistent, which may be driven by diverse assessment methods. We used serum specific immunoglobulin E (IgE) against common inhalant allergens that was assessed prior to cancer diagnosis in studying this association. We selected 8,727 Swedish men and women who had measurements of serum allergen-specific IgE and total IgE between 1992 and 1996. Multivariable Cox regression using age as a timescale was performed to assess the associations of IgE sensitization, defined by any levels of serum specific IgE ≥35 kU/L, with risk of overall and specific cancers. A test for trend was performed by assigning scores derived from allergen-specific IgE levels at baseline as an ordinal scale. Kaplan–Meier curves and log-rank test were used to assess cancer survival by IgE sensitization status. During a mean follow-up of 16 year, 689 persons were diagnosed with cancer. We found an inverse association between IgE sensitization and cancer risk, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.83 and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of 0.70–0.99. A similar trend was seen with specific IgE scores overall (Ptrend = 0.007) and in women (Ptrend = 0.01). Although IgE sensitization was not associated with risk of common site-specific cancers, serum specific IgE scores were inversely associated with melanoma risk in men and women combined, and with risk of female breast and gynecological cancers combined. No association with survival was observed. The association between circulating IgE levels and incident cancer may point toward a role of T-helper 2 (TH2)-biased response in development of some cancers. PMID:27471625

  8. The Prospective, Observational, Multicenter, Major Trauma Transfusion (PROMMTT) Study: Comparative Effectiveness of a Time-varying Treatment with Competing Risks

    PubMed Central

    Holcomb, John B.; del Junco, Deborah J.; Fox, Erin E.; Wade, Charles E.; Cohen, Mitchell J.; Schreiber, Martin A.; Alarcon, Louis H.; Bai, Yu; Brasel, Karen J.; Bulger, Eileen M.; Cotton, Bryan A.; Matijevic, Nena; Muskat, Peter; Myers, John G.; Phelan, Herb A.; White, Christopher E.; Zhang, Jiajie; Rahbar, Mohammad H.

    2013-01-01

    Context Hemorrhagic shock is the leading potentially preventable cause of death after injury. Transfusion of early and increased ratios of plasma and platelets to red blood cells (RBCs) has been associated with decreased mortality; however conflicting reports and the time-varying nature of transfusions and hemorrhagic death raise concern for the validity of the clinical conclusions drawn from the retrospective data. Objective To relate in-hospital mortality to: 1) early transfusion of plasma and/or platelets and 2) time-varying plasma:RBC and platelet:RBC ratios. Design Prospective cohort study documenting the timing of transfusions during active resuscitation and patient outcomes. Data were analyzed using time-dependent proportional hazards models. Setting Ten US Level 1 trauma centers. Patients Adult trauma patients surviving for 30 minutes after admission, transfused at least 1 unit RBC within 6 hours of admission (n=1245, the original study group) and at least 3 total units (of RBC, plasma or platelets) within 24 hours (n=905, the analysis group). Main outcome measure In-hospital mortality Results Plasma:RBC and platelet:RBC ratios were not constant over the first 24 hours (p<.001 for both). In a multivariable time-dependent Cox model, increased ratios of plasma:RBC (adjusted hazard ratio, HR=0.31, 95% CI=0.16–0.58) and platelets:RBC (adjusted HR=0.55, 95% CI=0.31–0.98) were independently associated with decreased 6-hour mortality, when hemorrhagic death predominated. In the first 6 hours, patients with ratios < 1:2 were 3–4 times more likely to die than patients with ratios ≥1:1. After 24 hours, plasma and platelet ratios were unassociated with mortality, when competing risks from non-hemorrhagic causes prevailed. Conclusions Higher plasma and platelet ratios early in resuscitation were associated with decreased mortality in patients transfused at least three units of blood products during the first 24 hours after admission. Among survivors at 24 hours

  9. Significant survival benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy after concurrent chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced high-risk nasopharyngeal carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Liang, Zhong-Guo; Chen, Xiao-Qian; Lin, Guo-Xiang; Yu, Bin-Bin; Chen, Kai-Hua; Zhong, Qiu-Lu; Nong, Si-Kai; Li, Ling; Qu, Song; Su, Fang; Zhao, Wei; Li, Ye; Zhu, Xiao-Dong

    2017-01-01

    The present study aimed to define high-risk patients who may benefit from additional adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) after concurrent chemotherapy in combination with intensity-modulated radiotherapy among patients with loco-regionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). A cohort of 511 NPC patients who received concomitant chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) with or without AC between January 2007 and December 2012 were retrospectively analysed. One hundred seventy-seven patients received CCRT alone, whereas 334 received CCRT + AC. The survival analysis showed that ages >45 years old, T3-T4 stages, N2-N3 disease and serum albumin levels ≤42 g/L were significant independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). Using these four risk factors, a prognostic model for OS was created as follows: (1) low-risk group: 0–1 risk factors; and (2) high-risk group: 2–4 risk factors. In the CCRT alone and CCRT + AC groups, significant differences in survival were found between the high- and low-risk groups. Patients in the high-risk group exhibited improved OS due to the addition of AC to CCRT, but no survival benefits were found in the low-risk group. In conclusion, high-risk patients may benefit from the addition of AC to CCRT regarding OS. PMID:28150694

  10. Transferable Competences of Young People with a High Dropout Risk in Vocational Training in Germany

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frey, Andreas; Balzer, Lars; Ruppert, Jean-Jacques

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines whether the subjective beliefs on their competences of 409 trainees in machinery, sales, and logistics constitute a reliable and valid way to measure transferable competences. The analysis of results attributes satisfactory to good reliability values to the assessment procedure. Furthermore, it could be shown that young people…

  11. Commercial kidney transplantation is an important risk factor in long-term kidney allograft survival.

    PubMed

    Prasad, G V Ramesh; Ananth, Sailesh; Palepu, Sneha; Huang, Michael; Nash, Michelle M; Zaltzman, Jeffrey S

    2016-05-01

    Transplant tourism, a form of transplant commercialization, has resulted in serious short-term adverse outcomes that explain reduced short-term kidney allograft survival. However, the nature of longer-term outcomes in commercial kidney transplant recipients is less clear. To study this further, we identified 69 Canadian commercial transplant recipients of 72 kidney allografts transplanted during 1998 to 2013 who reported to our transplant center for follow-up care. Their outcomes to 8 years post-transplant were compared with 702 domestic living donor and 827 deceased donor transplant recipients during this period using Kaplan-Meier survival plots and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Among many complications, notable specific events included hepatitis B or C seroconversion (7 patients), active hepatitis and/or fulminant hepatic failure (4 patients), pulmonary tuberculosis (2 patients), and a type A dissecting aortic aneurysm. Commercial transplantation was independently associated with significantly reduced death-censored kidney allograft survival (hazard ratio 3.69, 95% confidence interval 1.88-7.25) along with significantly delayed graft function and eGFR 30 ml/min/1.73 m(2) or less at 3 months post-transplant. Thus, commercial transplantation represents an important risk factor for long-term kidney allograft loss. Concerted arguments and efforts using adverse recipient outcomes among the main premises are still required in order to eradicate transplant commercialization.

  12. Leukoplakia, Oral Cavity Cancer Risk, and Cancer Survival in the U.S. Elderly.

    PubMed

    Yanik, Elizabeth L; Katki, Hormuzd A; Silverberg, Michael J; Manos, M Michele; Engels, Eric A; Chaturvedi, Anil K

    2015-09-01

    Screening for oral leukoplakia, an oral cavity cancer (OCC) precursor, could lead to earlier detection of OCC. However, the progression rate from leukoplakia to OCC and the benefits of leukoplakia screening for improving OCC outcomes are currently unclear. We conducted a case-cohort study of U.S. adults ages ≥65 years in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linkage. We identified leukoplakia diagnoses through Medicare claims, and OCC diagnoses through SEER cancer registries. Weighted Cox regression was used to estimate leukoplakia associations with OCC incidence, and the absolute OCC risk following leukoplakia diagnosis was calculated. Among OCC cases, we compared OCC stage and OCC survival between cases with a prior leukoplakia diagnosis versus those without prior leukoplakia. Among 470,266 individuals in the SEER-Medicare subcohort, 1,526 (0.3%) had a leukoplakia diagnosis. Among people with leukoplakia, the cumulative OCC incidence was 0.7% at 3 months and 2.5% at 5 years. OCC risk was most increased <3 months after leukoplakia diagnosis (HR, 115), likely representing the diagnosis of prevalent cancers. Nonetheless, risk remained substantially increased in subsequent follow-up [HR ≥ 3 months, 24; 95% confidence interval (CI), 22-27; HR ≥ 12 months, 22, 95% CI, 20-25]. Among OCC cases (N = 8,927), those with prior leukoplakia were less likely to be diagnosed at regional/distant stage (OR, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.30-0.43), and had lower mortality (HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.65-0.84) when compared with OCC cases without a prior leukoplakia. Individuals with leukoplakia have substantially elevated risk of OCC. Lower stage and better survival after OCC diagnosis suggest that leukoplakia identification can lead to earlier OCC detection and reduced mortality.

  13. Maternal exposure to predation risk decreases offspring antipredator behaviour and survival in threespined stickleback

    PubMed Central

    McGhee, Katie E.; Pintor, Lauren M.; Suhr, Elissa L.; Bell, Alison M.

    2012-01-01

    SUMMARY 1. Adaptive maternal programming occurs when mothers alter their offspring's phenotype in response to environmental information such that it improves offspring fitness. When a mother's environment is predictive of the conditions her offspring are likely to encounter, such transgenerational plasticity enables offspring to be better-prepared for this particular environment. However, maternal effects can also have deleterious effects on fitness. 2. Here, we test whether female threespined stickleback fish exposed to predation risk adaptively prepare their offspring to cope with predators. We either exposed gravid females to a model predator or not, and compared their offspring's antipredator behaviour and survival when alone with a live predator. Importantly, we measured offspring behaviour and survival in the face of the same type of predator that threatened their mothers (Northern pike). 3. We did not find evidence for adaptive maternal programming; offspring of predator-exposed mothers were less likely to orient to the predator than offspring from unexposed mothers. In our predation assay, orienting to the predator was an effective antipredator behaviour and those that oriented, survived for longer. 4. In addition, offspring from predator-exposed mothers were caught more quickly by the predator on average than offspring from unexposed mothers. The difference in antipredator behaviour between the maternal predator-exposure treatments offers a potential behavioural mechanism contributing to the difference in survival between maternal treatments. 5. However, the strength and direction of the maternal effect on offspring survival depended on offspring size. Specifically, the larger the offspring from predator-exposed mothers, the more vulnerable they were to predation compared to offspring from unexposed mothers. 6. Our results suggest that the predation risk perceived by mothers can have long-term behavioural and fitness consequences for offspring in response

  14. Bot fly parasitism of the red-backed vole: host survival, infection risk, and population growth.

    PubMed

    Lemaître, Jérôme; Fortin, Daniel; Montiglio, Pierre-Olivier; Darveau, Marcel

    2009-03-01

    Parasites can play an important role in the dynamics of host populations, but empirical evidence remains sparse. We investigated the role of bot fly (Cuterebra spp.) parasitism in red-backed voles (Myodes gapperi) by first assessing the impacts of the parasite on the probability of vole survival under stressful conditions as well as on the reproductive activity of females. We then identified the main factors driving both the individual risk of infection and the abundance of bot flies inside red-backed voles. Finally, we evaluated the impacts of bot fly prevalence on the growth rate of vole populations between mid-July and mid-August. Thirty-six populations of red-backed voles were sampled in the boreal forest of Québec, Canada. The presence and the abundance of parasites in voles, two host life history traits (sex and body condition), three indices of habitat complexity (tree basal area, sapling basal area, coarse woody debris volume), and vole abundance were considered in models evaluating the effects of bot flies on host populations. We found that the probability of survival of red-backed voles in live traps decreased with bot fly infection. Both the individual risk of infection and the abundance of bot flies in red-backed voles were driven mainly by vole abundance rather than by the two host life history traits or the three variables of habitat complexity. Parasitism had population consequences: bot fly prevalence was linked to a decrease in short-term growth rate of vole populations over the summer. We found that bot flies have the potential to reduce survival of red-backed voles, an effect that may apply to large portions of populations.

  15. Mortality Risk Factors for Patients with Septic Shock after Implementation of the Surviving Sepsis Campaign Bundles

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Moo Hyun; Jeong, Woo Yong; Jung, In Young; Oh, Dong Hyun; Kim, Yong Chan; Kim, Eun Jin; Jeong, Su Jin; Ku, Nam Su; Kim, June Myung

    2016-01-01

    Background Septic shock remains a leading cause of death, despite advances in critical care management. The Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) has reduced morbidity and mortality. This study evaluated risk factors for mortality in patients with septic shock who received treatment following the SSC bundles. Materials and Methods This retrospective cohort study included patients with septic shock who received treatments following SSC bundles in an urban emergency department between November 2007 and November 2011. Primary and secondary endpoints were all-cause 7- and 28-day mortality. Results Among 436 patients, 7- and 28-day mortality rates were 7.11% (31/436) and 14% (61/436), respectively. In multivariate analysis, high lactate level (odds ratio [OR], 1.286; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.016–1.627; P=0.036) and low estimated glomerular filtration rate (OR, 0.953; 95% CI, 0.913–0.996; P=0.032) were independent risk factors for 7-day mortality. Risk factors for 28-day mortality were high lactate level (OR, 1.346; 95% CI, 1.083–1.673; P=0.008) and high Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score (OR, 1.153; 95% CI, 1.029–1.293; P=0.014). Conclusion The risk of mortality of septic shock patients remains high in patients with high lactate levels and acute kidney injury. PMID:27659434

  16. Changes over calendar time in the risk of specific first AIDS-defining events following HIV seroconversion, adjusting for competing risks

    PubMed Central

    Babiker, Abdel; Darbyshire, Janet; Pezzotti, Patrizio; Porter, Kholoud; Rezza, Giovanni; Walker, Sarah A; Beral, Valerie; Coutinho, Roel; Del Amo, Julia; Gill, Noël; Lee, Christine; Meyer, Laurence; Tyrer, Freya; Dabis, François; Thiébaut, Rodolphe; Lawson-Aye, Sylvie; Boufassa, Faroudy; Hamouda, Osamah; Fischer, Klaus; Pezzotti, Patrizio; Touloumi, Giota; Hatzakis, Angelos; Karafoulidou, Anastasia; Katsarou, Olga; Brettle, Ray; Del Romero, Jorge; Prins, Maria; Van Benthem, Birgit; Kirk, Ole; Pederson, Court; Hernández Aguado, Idelfonso; Pérez-Hoyos, Santiago; Eskild, Anne; Bruun, Johan N; Sannes, Mette; Sabin, Caroline; Johnson, Anne M; Phillips, Andrew N; Francioli, Patrick; Vanhems, Philippe; Egger, Mathias; Rickenbach, Martin; Cooper, David; Kaldor, John; Ashton, Lesley; Vizzard, Jeanette; Muga, Roberto; Day, Nicholas E; De Angelis, Daniela

    2002-01-01

    Background Although studies have reported large reductions in the risks of AIDS and death since the introduction of potent anti-retroviral therapies, few have evaluated whether this has been similar for all AIDS-defining diseases. We wished to evaluate changes over time in the risk of specific AIDS-defining diseases, as first events, using data from individuals with known dates of HIV seroconversion. Methods Using a competing risks proportional hazards model on pooled data from 20 cohorts (CASCADE), we evaluated time from HIV seroconversion to each first AIDS-defining disease (16 groups) and to death without AIDS for four calendar periods, adjusting for exposure category, age, sex, acute infection, and stratifying by cohort. We compared results to those obtained from a cause-specific hazards model. Results Of 6941, 2021 (29%) developed AIDS and 437 (6%) died without AIDS. The risk of AIDS or death remained constant to 1996 then reduced; relative hazard = 0.89 (95% CI: 0.77–1.03); 0.90 (95% CI: 0.81–1.01); and 0.32 (95% CI: 0.28–0.37) for 1979–1990, 1991–1993, and 1997–2001, respectively, compared to 1994–1996. Significant risk reductions in 1997–2001 were observed in all but two AIDS-defining groups and death without AIDS in a competing risks model (with similar results from a cause-specific model). There was significant heterogeneity in the risk reduction across events; from 96% for cryptosporidiosis, to 17% for death without AIDS (P < 0.0001). Conclusion These findings suggest that studies reporting a stable trend for particular AIDS diseases over the period 1979–2001 may not have accounted for the competing risks among other events or lack the power to detect smaller trends. PMID:12435766

  17. Competing risk models in reliability systems, a weibull distribution model with bayesian analysis approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iskandar, Ismed; Satria Gondokaryono, Yudi

    2016-02-01

    In reliability theory, the most important problem is to determine the reliability of a complex system from the reliability of its components. The weakness of most reliability theories is that the systems are described and explained as simply functioning or failed. In many real situations, the failures may be from many causes depending upon the age and the environment of the system and its components. Another problem in reliability theory is one of estimating the parameters of the assumed failure models. The estimation may be based on data collected over censored or uncensored life tests. In many reliability problems, the failure data are simply quantitatively inadequate, especially in engineering design and maintenance system. The Bayesian analyses are more beneficial than the classical one in such cases. The Bayesian estimation analyses allow us to combine past knowledge or experience in the form of an apriori distribution with life test data to make inferences of the parameter of interest. In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Bayesian estimation analyses to competing risk systems. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure by using the Weibull distribution as our model. A simulation is conducted for this distribution with the objectives of verifying the models and the estimators and investigating the performance of the estimators for varying sample size. The simulation data are analyzed by using Bayesian and the maximum likelihood analyses. The simulation results show that the change of the true of parameter relatively to another will change the value of standard deviation in an opposite direction. For a perfect information on the prior distribution, the estimation methods of the Bayesian analyses are better than those of the maximum likelihood. The sensitivity analyses show some amount of sensitivity over the shifts of the prior locations. They also show the robustness of the Bayesian analysis within the range

  18. Do Breast Cancer Risk Factors Affect the Survival of Breast Cancer Patients in Southern Sri Lanka?

    PubMed

    Peiris, H H; Mudduwa, L K B; Thalagala, N I; Jayatilaka, K A P W

    2017-01-01

    Background: Breast cancer continues to be a major cause of morbidity among women in Sri Lanka. Possible effects of etiological risk factors on breast cancer specific survival (BCSS) of the disease is not clear.This study was designed to explore the impact of breast cancer risk factors on the BCSS of patients in Southern Sri Lanka. Method: This retro-prospective study included all breast cancer patients who had sought immunohistochemistry services at our unit from May 2006 to December 2012. A pre-tested, interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to gather information on risk factors. BCSS was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier model. Univariate Cox-regression analysis was performed with 95% confidence intervals using the SPSS statistical package. Results: A total of 944 breast cancer patients were included. Five year BCSS was 78.8%. There was a statistically significant difference between the patients who had a family history of breast cancer and no family history of any cancer in terms of the presence/absence of lymph node metastasis (p=0.011) and pathological stage (p=0.042). The majority of the premenopausal patients had associated DCIS (p<0.001) and large tumours (p=0.015) with positive lymph nodes (p=0.016). There was no statistically significant association between hormone receptor subtypes and hormone related risk factors. Univariate analysis revealed that breast cancer risk factors had no significant effect on the BCSS. Conclusion: Even though family history of breast cancer and premenopausal status are associated with poor prognostic features, they, in line with the other breast cancer risk factors, appear to have no significant effect on the BCSS of patients in Southern Sri Lanka.

  19. Fatty Acid Synthase Polymorphisms, Tumor Expression, Body Mass Index, Prostate Cancer Risk, and Survival

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen, Paul L.; Ma, Jing; Chavarro, Jorge E.; Freedman, Matthew L.; Lis, Rosina; Fedele, Giuseppe; Fiore, Christopher; Qiu, Weiliang; Fiorentino, Michelangelo; Finn, Stephen; Penney, Kathryn L.; Eisenstein, Anna; Schumacher, Fredrick R.; Mucci, Lorelei A.; Stampfer, Meir J.; Giovannucci, Edward; Loda, Massimo

    2010-01-01

    Purpose Fatty acid synthase (FASN) regulates de novo lipogenesis, body weight, and tumor growth. We examined whether common germline single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the FASN gene affect prostate cancer (PCa) risk or PCa-specific mortality and whether these effects vary by body mass index (BMI). Methods In a prospective nested case-control study of 1,331 white patients with PCa and 1,267 age-matched controls, we examined associations of five common SNPs within FASN (and 5 kb upstream/downstream, R2 > 0.8) with PCa incidence and, among patients, PCa-specific death and tested for an interaction with BMI. Survival analyses were repeated for tumor FASN expression (n = 909). Results Four of the five SNPs were associated with lethal PCa. SNP rs1127678 was significantly related to higher BMI and interacted with BMI for both PCa risk (Pinteraction = .004) and PCa mortality (Pinteraction = .056). Among overweight men (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2), but not leaner men, the homozygous variant allele carried a relative risk of advanced PCa of 2.49 (95% CI, 1.00 to 6.23) compared with lean men with the wild type. Overweight patients carrying the variant allele had a 2.04 (95% CI, 1.31 to 3.17) times higher risk of PCa mortality. Similarly, overweight patients with elevated tumor FASN expression had a 2.73 (95% CI, 1.05 to 7.08) times higher risk of lethal PCa (Pinteraction = .02). Conclusion FASN germline polymorphisms were significantly associated with risk of lethal PCa. Significant interactions of BMI with FASN polymorphisms and FASN tumor expression suggest FASN as a potential link between obesity and poor PCa outcome and raise the possibility that FASN inhibition could reduce PCa-specific mortality, particularly in overweight men. PMID:20679621

  20. Finding Risk Groups by Optimizing Artificial Neural Networks on the Area under the Survival Curve Using Genetic Algorithms

    PubMed Central

    Kalderstam, Jonas; Edén, Patrik; Ohlsson, Mattias

    2015-01-01

    We investigate a new method to place patients into risk groups in censored survival data. Properties such as median survival time, and end survival rate, are implicitly improved by optimizing the area under the survival curve. Artificial neural networks (ANN) are trained to either maximize or minimize this area using a genetic algorithm, and combined into an ensemble to predict one of low, intermediate, or high risk groups. Estimated patient risk can influence treatment choices, and is important for study stratification. A common approach is to sort the patients according to a prognostic index and then group them along the quartile limits. The Cox proportional hazards model (Cox) is one example of this approach. Another method of doing risk grouping is recursive partitioning (Rpart), which constructs a decision tree where each branch point maximizes the statistical separation between the groups. ANN, Cox, and Rpart are compared on five publicly available data sets with varying properties. Cross-validation, as well as separate test sets, are used to validate the models. Results on the test sets show comparable performance, except for the smallest data set where Rpart’s predicted risk groups turn out to be inverted, an example of crossing survival curves. Cross-validation shows that all three models exhibit crossing of some survival curves on this small data set but that the ANN model manages the best separation of groups in terms of median survival time before such crossings. The conclusion is that optimizing the area under the survival curve is a viable approach to identify risk groups. Training ANNs to optimize this area combines two key strengths from both prognostic indices and Rpart. First, a desired minimum group size can be specified, as for a prognostic index. Second, the ability to utilize non-linear effects among the covariates, which Rpart is also able to do. PMID:26352405

  1. HDAC1 and HDAC2 independently predict mortality in hepatocellular carcinoma by a competing risk regression model in a Southeast Asian population

    PubMed Central

    LER, SER YENG; LEUNG, CAROL HO WING; KHIN, LAY WAI; LU, GUO-DONG; SALTO-TELLEZ, MANUEL; HARTMAN, MIKAEL; IAU, PHILIP TSAU CHOONG; YAP, CELESTIAL T.; HOOI, SHING CHUAN

    2015-01-01

    Histone deacetylases (HDACs) are enzymes involved in transcriptional repression. We aimed to examine the significance of HDAC1 and HDAC2 gene expression in the prediction of recurrence and survival in 156 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among a South East Asian population who underwent curative surgical resection in Singapore. We found that HDAC1 and HDAC2 were upregulated in the majority of HCC tissues. The presence of HDAC1 in tumor tissues was correlated with poor tumor differentiation. Notably, HDAC1 expression in adjacent non-tumor hepatic tissues was correlated with the presence of satellite nodules and multiple lesions, suggesting that HDAC1 upregulation within the field of HCC may contribute to tumor spread. Using competing risk regression analysis, we found that increased cancer-specific mortality was significantly associated with HDAC2 expression. Mortality was also increased with high HDAC1 expression. In the liver cancer cell lines, HEP3B, HEPG2, PLC5, and a colorectal cancer cell line, HCT116, the combined knockdown of HDAC1 and HDAC2 increased cell death and reduced cell proliferation as well as colony formation. In contrast, knockdown of either HDAC1 or HDAC2 alone had minimal effects on cell death and proliferation. Taken together, our study suggests that both HDAC1 and HDAC2 exert pro-survival effects in HCC cells, and the combination of isoform-specific HDAC inhibitors against both HDACs may be effective in targeting HCC to reduce mortality. PMID:26352599

  2. Quantifying Cancer Absolute Risk and Cancer Mortality in the Presence of Competing Events after a Myotonic Dystrophy Diagnosis

    PubMed Central

    Gadalla, Shahinaz M.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Kristinsson, Sigurdur Y.; Björkholm, Magnus; Hilbert, James E.; Moxley, Richard T.; Landgren, Ola; Greene, Mark H.

    2013-01-01

    Recent studies show that patients with myotonic dystrophy (DM) have an increased risk of specific malignancies, but estimates of absolute cancer risk accounting for competing events are lacking. Using the Swedish Patient Registry, we identified 1,081 patients with an inpatient and/or outpatient diagnosis of DM between 1987 and 2007. Date and cause of death and date of cancer diagnosis were extracted from the Swedish Cause of Death and Cancer Registries. We calculated non-parametric estimates of absolute cancer risk and cancer mortality accounting for the high non-cancer competing mortality associated with DM. Absolute cancer risk after DM diagnosis was 1.6% (95% CI=0.4-4%), 5% (95% CI=3-9%) and 9% (95% CI=6-13%) at ages 40, 50 and 60 years, respectively. Females had a higher absolute risk of all cancers combined than males: 9% (95% CI=4-14), and 13% (95% CI=9-20) vs. 2% (95%CI= 0.7-6) and 4% (95%CI=2-8) by ages 50 and 60 years, respectively) and developed cancer at younger ages (median age =51 years, range=22-74 vs. 57, range=43-84, respectively, p=0.02). Cancer deaths accounted for 10% of all deaths, with an absolute cancer mortality risk of 2% (95%CI=1-4.5%), 4% (95%CI=2-6%), and 6% (95%CI=4-9%) by ages 50, 60, and 70 years, respectively. No gender difference in cancer-specific mortality was observed (p=0.6). In conclusion, cancer significantly contributes to morbidity and mortality in DM patients, even after accounting for high competing DM mortality from non-neoplastic causes. It is important to apply population-appropriate, validated cancer screening strategies in DM patients. PMID:24236163

  3. Brucella spp. of amphibians comprise genomically diverse motile strains competent for replication in macrophages and survival in mammalian hosts

    PubMed Central

    Al Dahouk, Sascha; Köhler, Stephan; Occhialini, Alessandra; Jiménez de Bagüés, María Pilar; Hammerl, Jens Andre; Eisenberg, Tobias; Vergnaud, Gilles; Cloeckaert, Axel; Zygmunt, Michel S.; Whatmore, Adrian M.; Melzer, Falk; Drees, Kevin P.; Foster, Jeffrey T.; Wattam, Alice R.; Scholz, Holger C.

    2017-01-01

    Twenty-one small Gram-negative motile coccobacilli were isolated from 15 systemically diseased African bullfrogs (Pyxicephalus edulis), and were initially identified as Ochrobactrum anthropi by standard microbiological identification systems. Phylogenetic reconstructions using combined molecular analyses and comparative whole genome analysis of the most diverse of the bullfrog strains verified affiliation with the genus Brucella and placed the isolates in a cluster containing B. inopinata and the other non-classical Brucella species but also revealed significant genetic differences within the group. Four representative but molecularly and phenotypically diverse strains were used for in vitro and in vivo infection experiments. All readily multiplied in macrophage-like murine J774-cells, and their overall intramacrophagic growth rate was comparable to that of B. inopinata BO1 and slightly higher than that of B. microti CCM 4915. In the BALB/c murine model of infection these strains replicated in both spleen and liver, but were less efficient than B. suis 1330. Some strains survived in the mammalian host for up to 12 weeks. The heterogeneity of these novel strains hampers a single species description but their phenotypic and genetic features suggest that they represent an evolutionary link between a soil-associated ancestor and the mammalian host-adapted pathogenic Brucella species. PMID:28300153

  4. Response to 'Avoidance of sun exposure as a risk factor for major causes of death: a competing risk analysis of the Melanoma in Southern Sweden cohort'.

    PubMed

    Hoffmann, S; Sobotzki, C

    2017-03-23

    Lindqvist et al. [1] recently published a mortality analysis in a prospective cohort of 29 518 Sweden-born women. Using a competing risk framework, the authors observed an increased mortality by cardiovascular disease (CVD) and noncancer/non-CVD for women who avoided sun exposure. A. Torres, the president of the American Academy of Dermatology, already addressed a number of limitations which are important in the interpretation of this study [2]. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  5. HEMORRHAGIC CYSTITIS AFTER ALLOGENEIC HEMATOPOIETIC CELL TRANSPLANTATION: RISK FACTORS, GRAFT SOURCE, AND SURVIVAL

    PubMed Central

    Lunde, Laura E.; Dasaraju, Sandhyarani; Cao, Qing; Cohn, Claudia S.; Reding, Mark; Bejanyan, Nelli; Trottier, Bryan; Rogosheske, John; Brunstein, Claudio; Warlick, Erica; Young, Jo Anne H.; Weisdorf, Daniel J.; Ustun, Celalettin

    2017-01-01

    Although hemorrhagic cystitis (HC) is a common complication of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (alloHCT), its risk factors and effects on survival are not well-known. We evaluated HC in a large cohort (n=1321, 2003 – 2012) receiving alloHCT from all graft sources, including umbilical cord blood (UCB). We compared HC patients with non-HC (control) patients and examined clinical variables at HC onset and resolution. Of these 1321 patients, 219 (16.6%) developed HC at a median of 22 days after alloHCT. BK viruria was detected in 90% of 109 tested HC patients. Median duration of HC was 27 days. At the time of HC diagnosis, acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD), fever, severe thrombocytopenia, and steroid use were more frequent than at the time of HC resolution. In univariate analysis, male sex, age <20 years, myeloablative conditioning with cyclophosphamide and acute GVHD were associated with HC. In multivariate analysis, HC was significantly more common in males and HLA-mismatched UCB graft recipients. Severe grade HC (grade III–IV) was associated with increased treatment-related mortality (TRM) but not with overall survival at 1 year. HC remains hazardous and therefore better prophylaxis and early interventions to limit its severity are still needed. PMID:26168069

  6. Mortality Risk and Survival in the Aftermath of the Medieval Black Death

    PubMed Central

    DeWitte, Sharon N.

    2014-01-01

    The medieval Black Death (c. 1347-1351) was one of the most devastating epidemics in human history. It killed tens of millions of Europeans, and recent analyses have shown that the disease targeted elderly adults and individuals who had been previously exposed to physiological stressors. Following the epidemic, there were improvements in standards of living, particularly in dietary quality for all socioeconomic strata. This study investigates whether the combination of the selective mortality of the Black Death and post-epidemic improvements in standards of living had detectable effects on survival and mortality in London. Samples are drawn from several pre- and post-Black Death London cemeteries. The pre-Black Death sample comes from the Guildhall Yard (n = 75) and St. Nicholas Shambles (n = 246) cemeteries, which date to the 11th–12th centuries, and from two phases within the St. Mary Spital cemetery, which date to between 1120-1300 (n = 143). The St. Mary Graces cemetery (n = 133) was in use from 1350–1538 and thus represents post-epidemic demographic conditions. By applying Kaplan-Meier analysis and the Gompertz hazard model to transition analysis age estimates, and controlling for changes in birth rates, this study examines differences in survivorship and mortality risk between the pre- and post-Black Death populations of London. The results indicate that there are significant differences in survival and mortality risk, but not birth rates, between the two time periods, which suggest improvements in health following the Black Death, despite repeated outbreaks of plague in the centuries after the Black Death. PMID:24806459

  7. Mortality risk and survival in the aftermath of the medieval Black Death.

    PubMed

    DeWitte, Sharon N

    2014-01-01

    The medieval Black Death (c. 1347-1351) was one of the most devastating epidemics in human history. It killed tens of millions of Europeans, and recent analyses have shown that the disease targeted elderly adults and individuals who had been previously exposed to physiological stressors. Following the epidemic, there were improvements in standards of living, particularly in dietary quality for all socioeconomic strata. This study investigates whether the combination of the selective mortality of the Black Death and post-epidemic improvements in standards of living had detectable effects on survival and mortality in London. Samples are drawn from several pre- and post-Black Death London cemeteries. The pre-Black Death sample comes from the Guildhall Yard (n = 75) and St. Nicholas Shambles (n = 246) cemeteries, which date to the 11th-12th centuries, and from two phases within the St. Mary Spital cemetery, which date to between 1120-1300 (n = 143). The St. Mary Graces cemetery (n = 133) was in use from 1350-1538 and thus represents post-epidemic demographic conditions. By applying Kaplan-Meier analysis and the Gompertz hazard model to transition analysis age estimates, and controlling for changes in birth rates, this study examines differences in survivorship and mortality risk between the pre- and post-Black Death populations of London. The results indicate that there are significant differences in survival and mortality risk, but not birth rates, between the two time periods, which suggest improvements in health following the Black Death, despite repeated outbreaks of plague in the centuries after the Black Death.

  8. A comparison of survival models for assessing risk of racehorse fatality.

    PubMed

    Henley, W E; Rogers, K; Harkins, L; Wood, J L N

    2006-04-17

    Survival analysis was used to assess risk factors for fatal injuries on UK race courses. This allowed assessment of variation due to temporal horse-level effects, including previous racing intensity and historical distribution of race types, as well as race-level factors. Comparisons were made between measuring survival time as number of days and as number of races to injury from the first race. Two related models were presented for time as number of races to injury: a Cox regression model fitted using partial likelihood, with the Efron approximation to handling ties, and a discrete-time logit model fitted using maximum likelihood. The latter approach had the advantages of being computationally more efficient and enabling the testing of different functional forms for the dependence of hazard on time. Retrospective data were available from all race starts on the 59 courses in Britain from 1990 to the end of 1999, as analysed by . The analysis was conducted on the data for the 47,424 horses that had started racing in the UK: 538,895 starts with 1,228 fatal injuries. Horses starting racing abroad were excluded, but some included horses would have raced abroad at some stage during their racing career. The results for the selected models were broadly consistent with each other and with previously published studies. Steeplechase and hurdle races had a higher risk of fatal injury than flat races (relative hazards 1.5 and 1.7, respectively). Risk increased with the firmness of surface, age and race distance (reaching a plateau at 20 furlongs) and decreased with previous racing intensity (reaching a plateau after seven races run in the last 12 months). Horses running their first race of a new type were also found to be at higher risk (relative hazard 1.5). The main difference between the models for time as number of days and number of races concerned the role of age: age at race was identified as the more important factor in the latter model, whereas, age at first race was

  9. The Advanced Dementia Prognostic Tool (ADEPT): A Risk Score to Estimate Survival in Nursing Home Residents with Advanced Dementia

    PubMed Central

    Mitchell, Susan L.; Miller, Susan C.; Teno, Joan M.; Davis, Roger B.; Shaffer, Michele L.

    2010-01-01

    Context Estimating life expectancy is challenging in advanced dementia. Objectives To create a risk score to estimate survival in nursing home (NH) residents with advanced dementia. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study performed in the setting of all licensed US NHs. Residents with advanced dementia living in US NHs in 2002 were identified using Minimum Data Set (MDS) assessments. Mortality data from Medicare files were used to determine 12-month survival. Independent variables were selected from the MDS. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to model survival. The accuracy of the final model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). To develop a risk score, points were assigned to variables in the final model based on parameter estimates. Residents meeting hospice eligibility guidelines for dementia, based on MDS data, were identified. The AUROC assessed the accuracy of hospice guidelines to predict six-month survival. Results Over 12 months, 40.6% of residents with advanced dementia (n=22,405) died. Twelve variables best predicted survival: length of stay, age, male, dyspnea, pressure ulcers, total functional dependence, bedfast, insufficient intake, bowel incontinence, body mass index, weight loss, and congestive heart failure. The AUROC for the final model was 0.68. The risk score ranged from 0–32 points (higher scores indicate worse survival). Only 15.9% of residents met hospice eligibility guidelines for which the AUROC predicting six-month survival was 0.53. Conclusion A mortality risk score derived from MDS data predicted six-month survival in advanced dementia with moderate accuracy. The predictive ability of hospice guidelines, simulated with MDS data, was poor. PMID:20621437

  10. Risk communication as a core public health competence in infectious disease management: Development of the ECDC training curriculum and programme.

    PubMed

    Dickmann, Petra; Abraham, Thomas; Sarkar, Satyajit; Wysocki, Piotr; Cecconi, Sabrina; Apfel, Franklin; Nurm, Ülla-Karin

    2016-01-01

    Risk communication has been identified as a core competence for guiding public health responses to infectious disease threats. The International Health Regulations (2005) call for all countries to build capacity and a comprehensive understanding of health risks before a public health emergency to allow systematic and coherent communication, response and management. Research studies indicate that while outbreak and crisis communication concepts and tools have long been on the agenda of public health officials, there is still a need to clarify and integrate risk communication concepts into more standardised practices and improve risk communication and health, particularly among disadvantaged populations. To address these challenges, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) convened a group of risk communication experts to review and integrate existing approaches and emerging concepts in the development of a training curriculum. This curriculum articulates a new approach in risk communication moving beyond information conveyance to knowledge- and relationship-building. In a pilot training this approach was reflected both in the topics addressed and in the methods applied. This article introduces the new conceptual approach to risk communication capacity building that emerged from this process, presents the pilot training approach developed, and shares the results of the course evaluation.

  11. Conditional Survival Analysis of Patients With Locally Advanced Laryngeal Cancer: Construction of a Dynamic Risk Model and Clinical Nomogram

    PubMed Central

    Sheu, Tommy; Vock, David M.; Mohamed, Abdallah S. R.; Gross, Neil; Mulcahy, Collin; Zafereo, Mark; Gunn, G. Brandon; Garden, Adam S.; Sevak, Parag; Phan, Jack; Lewin, Jan S.; Frank, Steven J.; Beadle, Beth M.; Morrison, William H.; Lai, Stephen Y.; Hutcheson, Katherine; Marai, G. Elisabeta; Canahuate, Guadalupe M.; Kies, Merrill; El-Naggar, Adel; Weber, Randal S.; Rosenthal, David I.; Fuller, Clifton D.

    2017-01-01

    Conditional survival (CS), the survival beyond a pre-defined time interval, can identify periods of higher mortality risk for patients with locally advanced laryngeal cancer who face treatment-related toxicity and comorbidities related to alcohol and smoking in the survivorship setting. Using Weibull regression modeling, we analyzed retrospectively abstracted data from 638 records of patients who received radiation to identify prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and recurrence free survival (RFS) for the first 3 years of survival and for OS conditional upon 3 years of survival. The CS was iteratively calculated, stratifying on variables that were statistically significant on multivariate regression. Predictive nomograms were generated. The median total follow up time was 175 months. The 3- and 6- year actuarial overall survival (OS) was 68% (95% confidence interval [CI] 65–72%) and 49% (CI 45–53%). The 3-year conditional overall survival (COS) at 3 years was 72% (CI 65–74%). Black patients had worse COS over time. Nodal disease was significantly associated with recurrence, but after 3 years, the 3-year conditional RFS converged for all nodal groups. In conclusion, the CS analysis in this patient cohort identified subgroups and time intervals that may represent opportunities for intervention. PMID:28276466

  12. Risk and Protective Factors for Children of Adolescents: Maternal Depression and Parental Sense of Competence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knoche, Lisa L.; Givens, Jami E.; Sheridan, Susan M.

    2007-01-01

    We investigated the relationship between depression and parental sense of competence to child cognitive outcomes for a sample of 49 adolescent mothers and their young children ("Mean age" = 9 1/2 months) enrolled in a student parenting program. Cognitive development of the infants and toddlers was assessed using the Bayley Scales of Infant…

  13. Core Competency Modification. A Manual for Working with At-Risk/Special Needs Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Loess Hills Area Education Agency 13, Council Bluffs, IA.

    This manual assists teachers in providing adaptations for disabled and disadvantaged students to ensure their success in the regular vocational classroom and to meet requirements of the new vocational education standards in Iowa, which call for a competency-based curriculum. Introductory pages include strategies for teaching special needs…

  14. Instructional Climates in Preschool Children Who Are At-Risk. Part II: Perceived Physical Competence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Robinson, Leah E.; Rudisill, Mary E.; Goodway, Jacqueline D.

    2009-01-01

    In Part II of this study, we examined the effect of two 9-week instructional climates (low-autonomy [LA] and mastery motivational climate [MMC]) on perceived physical competence (PPC) in preschoolers (N = 117). Participants were randomly assigned to an LA, MMC, or comparison group. PPC was assessed by a pretest, posttest, and retention test with…

  15. Effect of PSCA gene polymorphisms on gastric cancer risk and survival prediction: A meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    ZHANG, TAO; CHEN, YUAN-NENG; WANG, ZHEN; CHEN, JUN-QIANG; HUANG, SHI

    2012-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that two single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in PSCA (rs2976392 and rs2294008) are associated with gastric cancer (GC), but the results are conflicting. Additionally, the prognostic value of PSCA gene polymorphisms for GC patients is unknown. We performed a meta-analysis using 9 eligible case-control studies to investigate the association between PSCA polymorphisms and GC risk, and additionally investigated the prognostic value of PSCA polymorphisms for GC patients with two eligible studies. The association was measured using random-effect or fixed-effect odds ratios (ORs) combined with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) according to the heterogeneity of the studies. We found that rs2294008 (dominant model: OR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.16–1.79) and rs2976392 (dominant model: OR, 1.41; 95% CI, 0.98–2.04) polymorphisms were associated with increased risk of GC, although the association of rs2976392 was not statistically significant. For rs2294008, the associations were all consistently significant among the different subgroups stratified by ethnicity and tumor location, but not significant in intestinal or diffuse subtypes. For rs2976392, the associations were consistently significant for the intestinal, diffuse and non-cardia subtypes, but not significant for the cardia subtype. Furthermore, two eligible studies reported inverse results of PCSA in predicting the survival of GC patients (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.59–0.96; and HR, 2.12; 95% CI, 1.22–3.69, respectively). In conclusion, PSCA gene polymorphisms are associated with increased risk of GC and are correlated with the prognosis of GC patients. Future studies are required to evaluate the molecular mechanisms of PSCA polymorphisms in GC and validate the prognostic value in a larger number of patients. PMID:23060941

  16. Association of the ABCG2 C421A polymorphism with prostate cancer risk and survival

    PubMed Central

    Gardner, Erin R.; Ahlers, Christoph M.; Shukla, Suneet; Sissung, Tristan M.; Ockers, Sandra B.; Price, Douglas K.; Hamada, Akinobu; Robey, Robert W.; Steinberg, Seth M.; Ambudkar, Suresh V.; Dahut, William L.; Figg, William D.

    2009-01-01

    Objective To determine if the C421A single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the ATP-binding cassette transporter ABCG2 increases prostate cancer risk or affects survival. Patients, subjects and methods Numerous studies have suggested that dietary, hormonal and environmental factors all play a role in the initiation in prostate cancer; among these, the carcinogenic heterocyclic amine 2-amino-1-methyl-6-phenylimidazo[4,5-b]pyridine (PhIP), a known substrate of the ABCG2. A SNP of ABCG2, C421A, resulting in a glutamine to lysine change at amino acid 141, has been shown to result in decreased function of the protein. Due to the expression of ABCG2 in the prostate, together with the purported role of dietary carcinogens and steroids in the development and progression of prostate cancer, 311 individuals were genotyped for the ABCG2 C421A SNP, 170 patients with androgen-independent prostate cancer (AIPC) and 141 ‘healthy’ controls. We also evaluated the effect of this SNP on the intracellular accumulation of PhIP and testosterone in vitro. Results There were no significant differences in the prevalence of prostate cancer based on ABCG2 genetic variation in this population. However, survival was significantly longer for individuals with wild-type ABCG2, as compared with those hetero- or homozygous for the C421A SNP (7.4 years vs 5.3 years, P = 0.044). Conclusion Intracellular accumulation of PhIP was 80% higher in HEK293 cells transfected with Q141K ABCG2 than in wild-type cells, confirming that this SNP decreases transport of PhIP. In contrast, testosterone was not transported by either wild-type or variant transfected cells, nor did it act as in inhibitor of ABCG2 in subsequent transport assays. PMID:18710444

  17. Mixed-effects varying-coefficient model with skewed distribution coupled with cause-specific varying-coefficient hazard model with random-effects for longitudinal-competing risks data analysis.

    PubMed

    Lu, Tao; Wang, Min; Liu, Guangying; Dong, Guang-Hui; Qian, Feng

    2016-01-01

    It is well known that there is strong relationship between HIV viral load and CD4 cell counts in AIDS studies. However, the relationship between them changes during the course of treatment and may vary among individuals. During treatments, some individuals may experience terminal events such as death. Because the terminal event may be related to the individual's viral load measurements, the terminal mechanism is non-ignorable. Furthermore, there exists competing risks from multiple types of events, such as AIDS-related death and other death. Most joint models for the analysis of longitudinal-survival data developed in literatures have focused on constant coefficients and assume symmetric distribution for the endpoints, which does not meet the needs for investigating the nature of varying relationship between HIV viral load and CD4 cell counts in practice. We develop a mixed-effects varying-coefficient model with skewed distribution coupled with cause-specific varying-coefficient hazard model with random-effects to deal with varying relationship between the two endpoints for longitudinal-competing risks survival data. A fully Bayesian inference procedure is established to estimate parameters in the joint model. The proposed method is applied to a multicenter AIDS cohort study. Various scenarios-based potential models that account for partial data features are compared. Some interesting findings are presented.

  18. A Competence-Based Science Learning Framework Illustrated Through the Study of Natural Hazards and Disaster Risk Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oyao, Sheila G.; Holbrook, Jack; Rannikmäe, Miia; Pagunsan, Marmon M.

    2015-09-01

    This article proposes a competence-based learning framework for science teaching, applied to the study of 'big ideas', in this case to the study of natural hazards and disaster risk reduction (NH&DRR). The framework focuses on new visions of competence, placing emphasis on nurturing connectedness and behavioral actions toward resilience and sustainability. The framework draws together competences familiarly expressed as cognitive knowledge and skills, plus dispositions and adds connectedness and action-related behaviors, and applies this by means of a progression shift associated with NH&DRR from abilities to capabilities. The target is enhanced scientific literacy approached through an education through science focus, amplified through the study of a big idea, promotion of sustained resilience in the face of disaster and the taking of responsibilities for behavioral actions. The framework is applied to a learning progression for each interrelated education dimension, thus serving as a guide for both the development of abilities and as a platform for stimulating student capabilities within instruction and assessment.

  19. Impact of genomic risk factors on survival after haematopoietic stem cell transplantation for patients with acute leukaemia.

    PubMed

    Pearce, K F; Balavarca, Y; Norden, J; Jackson, G; Holler, E; Dressel, R; Greinix, H; Toubert, A; Gluckman, E; Hromadnikova, I; Sedlacek, P; Wolff, D; Holtick, U; Bickeböller, H; Dickinson, A M

    2016-12-01

    The EBMT risk score is an established tool successfully used in the prognosis of survival post-HSCT and is applicable for a range of haematological disorders. One of its main advantages is that score generation involves summation of clinical parameters that are available pretransplant. However, the EBMT risk score is recognized as not being optimal. Previous analyses, involving patients with various diagnoses, have shown that non-HLA gene polymorphisms influence outcome after allogeneic HSCT. This study is novel as it focuses only on patients having acute leukaemia (N = 458) and attempts to demonstrate how non-HLA gene polymorphisms can be added to the EBMT risk score in a Cox regression model to improve prognostic ability for overall survival. The results of the study found that three genetic factors improved EBMT risk score. The presence of MAL (rs8177374) allele T in the patient, absence of glucocorticoid receptor haplotype (consisting of rs6198, rs33389 and rs33388) ACT in the patient and absence of heat-shock protein 70-hom (+2437) (rs2227956) allele C in the patient were associated with decreased survival time. When compared to the EBMT risk score, the scores combining EBMT risk score with the genetic factors had an improved correlation with clinical outcome and better separation of risk groups. A bootstrapping technique, involving repeated testing of a model using multiple validation sets, also revealed that the newly proposed model had improved predictive value when compared to the EBMT risk score alone. Results support the view that non-HLA polymorphisms could be useful for pretransplant clinical assessment and provide evidence that polymorphisms in the recipient genotype may influence incoming donor cells, suppressing the initiation of the graft versus leukaemia effect and reducing survival.

  20. Communication Competencies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boileau, Don M.

    Aware of the societal problems stemming from a lack of communication skills, the American public is pressing for instruction in speaking and listening in the schools. This response is reflected in the speaking and listening competency recommendations in many national reform reports. Such reports include "A Nation at Risk" by the National…

  1. Effects of Maternal Nutrition, Resource Use and Multi-Predator Risk on Neonatal White-Tailed Deer Survival

    PubMed Central

    Duquette, Jared F.; Belant, Jerrold L.; Svoboda, Nathan J.; Beyer, Dean E.; Lederle, Patrick E.

    2014-01-01

    Growth of ungulate populations is typically most sensitive to survival of neonates, which in turn is influenced by maternal nutritional condition and trade-offs in resource selection and avoidance of predators. We assessed whether resource use, multi-predator risk, maternal nutritional effects, hiding cover, or interactions among these variables best explained variation in daily survival of free-ranging neonatal white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) during their post-partum period (14 May–31 Aug) in Michigan, USA. We used Cox proportional hazards mixed-effects models to assess survival related to covariates of resource use, composite predation risk of 4 mammalian predators, fawn body mass at birth, winter weather, and vegetation growth phenology. Predation, particularly from coyotes (Canis latrans), was the leading cause of mortality; however, an additive model of non-ideal resource use and maternal nutritional effects explained 71% of the variation in survival. This relationship suggested that dams selected areas where fawns had poor resources, while greater predation in these areas led to additive mortalities beyond those related to resource use alone. Also, maternal nutritional effects suggested that severe winters resulted in dams producing smaller fawns, which decreased their likelihood of survival. Fawn resource use appeared to reflect dam avoidance of lowland forests with poor forage and greater use by wolves (C. lupus), their primary predator. While this strategy led to greater fawn mortality, particularly by coyotes, it likely promoted the life-long reproductive success of dams because many reached late-age (>10 years old) and could have produced multiple generations of fawns. Studies often link resource selection and survival of ungulates, but our results suggested that multiple factors can mediate that relationship, including multi-predator risk. We emphasize the importance of identifying interactions among biological and environmental factors

  2. Effects of maternal nutrition, resource use and multi-predator risk on neonatal white-tailed deer survival.

    PubMed

    Duquette, Jared F; Belant, Jerrold L; Svoboda, Nathan J; Beyer, Dean E; Lederle, Patrick E

    2014-01-01

    Growth of ungulate populations is typically most sensitive to survival of neonates, which in turn is influenced by maternal nutritional condition and trade-offs in resource selection and avoidance of predators. We assessed whether resource use, multi-predator risk, maternal nutritional effects, hiding cover, or interactions among these variables best explained variation in daily survival of free-ranging neonatal white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) during their post-partum period (14 May-31 Aug) in Michigan, USA. We used Cox proportional hazards mixed-effects models to assess survival related to covariates of resource use, composite predation risk of 4 mammalian predators, fawn body mass at birth, winter weather, and vegetation growth phenology. Predation, particularly from coyotes (Canis latrans), was the leading cause of mortality; however, an additive model of non-ideal resource use and maternal nutritional effects explained 71% of the variation in survival. This relationship suggested that dams selected areas where fawns had poor resources, while greater predation in these areas led to additive mortalities beyond those related to resource use alone. Also, maternal nutritional effects suggested that severe winters resulted in dams producing smaller fawns, which decreased their likelihood of survival. Fawn resource use appeared to reflect dam avoidance of lowland forests with poor forage and greater use by wolves (C. lupus), their primary predator. While this strategy led to greater fawn mortality, particularly by coyotes, it likely promoted the life-long reproductive success of dams because many reached late-age (>10 years old) and could have produced multiple generations of fawns. Studies often link resource selection and survival of ungulates, but our results suggested that multiple factors can mediate that relationship, including multi-predator risk. We emphasize the importance of identifying interactions among biological and environmental factors when

  3. Risks, dangers and competing clinical decisions on venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in hospital care.

    PubMed

    Boiko, Olga; Sheaff, Rod; Child, Susan; Gericke, Christian A

    2014-07-01

    Drawing on wider sociologies of risk, this article examines the complexity of clinical risks and their management, focusing on risk management systems, expert decision-making and safety standards in health care. At the time of this study preventing venous thromboembolism (VTE) among in-patients was one of the top priorities for hospital safety in the English National Health Service (NHS). An analysis of 50 interviews examining hospital professionals' perceptions about VTE risks and prophylaxis illuminates how National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines influenced clinical decision-making in four hospitals in one NHS region. We examine four themes: the identification of new risks, the institutionalisation and management of risk, the relationship between risk and danger and the tensions between risk management systems and expert decision-making. The implementation of NICE guidelines for VTE prevention extended managerial control over risk management but some irreducible clinical dangers remained that were beyond the scope of the new VTE risk management systems. Linking sociologies of risk with the realities of hospital risk management reveals the capacity of these theories to illuminate both the possibilities and the limits of managerialism in health care.

  4. Conceptualizing and Re-Evaluating Resilience across Levels of Risk, Time, and Domains of Competence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vanderbilt-Adriance, Ella; Shaw, Daniel S.

    2008-01-01

    This article examines potential theoretical constraints on resilience across levels of risk, time, and domain of outcome. Studies of resilience are reviewed as they relate to the prevalence of resilience across levels of risk (e.g., single life events vs. cumulative risk), time, and domains of adjustment. Based on a thorough review of pertinent…

  5. Successful survival, growth, and reproductive potential of quagga mussels in low calcium lake water: is there uncertainty of establishment risk?

    PubMed Central

    Ruhmann, Emma K.; Acharya, Kumud; Chandra, Sudeep; Jerde, Christopher L.

    2015-01-01

    The risk of quagga mussel (Dreissena rostriformis bugensis Andrusov 1897) establishment into water-bodies of the western US has expanded the geographic concern regarding the ecological and economic impacts this species will have in aquatic ecosystems. Thresholds based on calcium concentrations, an element critical for mussel growth and physiology, have been used as a primary predictor of quagga mussel establishment success to aid management decisions. We evaluated the invasion potential of quagga mussels in low calcium waters using laboratory experiments to compare the survival, growth and reproductive potential of adult mussels held for 90 days at low (9 and 12 ppm), moderate (15 to 32 ppm) and high (72 ppm) calcium water concentrations. In conjunction with adult experiments, veliger stage survival, growth and settlement were evaluated under similar low, moderate, and high calcium water treatments. Adult mussels survived, grew and showed reproductive potential in low calcium water (12 ppm). Veligers were also able to survive, grow and settle in low calcium water. Higher levels of natural seston biomass appeared to improve adult mussel life history performance in low calcium water. Survival curve analysis predicted that 99% adult mortality could occur in <170 days at 9 ppm and 12 ppm, however water with >15 ppm could have adults surviving more than a year. The results from these bioassays provide further evidence that quagga mussels have higher risk of establishment in low calcium lakes if habitats exist that have slightly elevated calcium. These results should help emphasize the vulnerability of water-body in the 12 to 15 ppm calcium range that could potentially be at risk of establishing sustainable quagga mussel populations. Furthermore, these results provide insights into the uncertainty of using a single parameter in assigning establishment risk given the complexity of variables in specific water-bodies that influence life history performance of introduced

  6. The role of verbal competence and multiple risk on the internalizing behavior problems of Costa Rican youth.

    PubMed

    Corapci, Feyza; Smith, Julia; Lozoff, Betsy

    2006-12-01

    This longitudinal study examined internalizing behavior problems (anxiety/depression) in early adolescence in relation to adversity in early childhood and child verbal competence. We hypothesized that verbal competence would act as a protective factor in the face of early adversity, that is, high verbal IQ would predict relatively lower internalizing problems in early adolescence primarily for those children who experienced the greatest adversity. The sample was based on 191 Costa Rican children and their mothers, who were recruited in infancy from an urban community and assessed again at 5 and 11-14 years. Families were generally lower-middle to working class. A total of 165 children (94 boys) participated in the early adolescent follow-up (mean age = 12.3 years). Internalizing problems were based on maternal report (Spanish Child Behavior Checklist). Our cumulative risk index (CRI)_of adversity in early childhood consisted of home environment quality (HOME score), socioeconomic status, maternal depressed mood (CESD), and maternal IQ. Controlling for the effects of age, gender, internalizing problems at 5 years, and verbal IQ at 5 years, there was a significant interaction between early adversity and verbal IQ at age 11-14 years in predicting internalizing problems in early adolescence. Youth with high verbal IQ had comparable levels of internalizing problems regardless of high or low adversity in early childhood. In contrast, youth with low verbal IQ received higher internalizing problem ratings if they experienced high adversity early in life. The results raise the possibility that interventions to improve verbal competence might help lower the risk of internalizing problems in the face of early adversity.

  7. Pre-Transplant Cardiovascular Risk Factors Affect Kidney Allograft Survival: A Multi-Center Study in Korea

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Jung Pyo; Bae, Eunjin; Kang, Eunjeong; Kim, Hack-Lyoung; Kim, Yong-Jin; Oh, Yun Kyu; Kim, Yon Su; Kim, Young Hoon; Lim, Chun Soo

    2016-01-01

    Background Pre-transplant cardiovascular (CV) risk factors affect the development of CV events even after successful kidney transplantation (KT). However, the impact of pre-transplant CV risk factors on allograft failure (GF) has not been reported. Methods and Findings We analyzed the graft outcomes of 2,902 KT recipients who were enrolled in a multi-center cohort from 1997 to 2012. We calculated the pre-transplant CV risk scores based on the Framingham risk model using age, gender, total cholesterol level, smoking status, and history of hypertension. Vascular disease (a composite of ischemic heart disease, peripheral vascular disease, and cerebrovascular disease) was noted in 6.5% of the patients. During the median follow-up of 6.4 years, 286 (9.9%) patients had developed GF. In the multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard model, pre-transplant vascular disease was associated with an increased risk of GF (HR 2.51; 95% CI 1.66–3.80). The HR for GF (comparing the highest with the lowest tertile regarding the pre-transplant CV risk scores) was 1.65 (95% CI 1.22–2.23). In the competing risk model, both pre-transplant vascular disease and CV risk score were independent risk factors for GF. Moreover, the addition of the CV risk score, the pre-transplant vascular disease, or both had a better predictability for GF compared to the traditional GF risk factors. Conclusions In conclusion, both vascular disease and pre-transplant CV risk score were independently associated with GF in this multi-center study. Pre-transplant CV risk assessments could be useful in predicting GF in KT recipients. PMID:27501048

  8. Influence of an elevated nutrition risk score (NRS) on survival in patients following gastrectomy for gastric cancer.

    PubMed

    Bachmann, J; Müller, T; Schröder, A; Riediger, C; Feith, M; Reim, D; Friess, H; Martignoni, M E

    2015-07-01

    In the last years, the impact of weight loss in patients with malignant tumors has come more and more into the focus of clinical research, as the occurrence of weight loss is often associated with a reduced survival. Weight loss can be a hint for metastases in patients suffering from malignant tumors; furthermore, these patients are usually not able to be treated with chemotherapy. The aim of the study was to show the influence of weight loss and an elevated nutrition risk score on survival following tumor resection in patients suffering from gastric cancer. In 99 patients in whom a gastrectomy due to gastric cancer was performed, the nutrition risk score was calculated and its influence on mortality, morbidity and survival was analyzed. Of the included patients, 45 % of the patients gave a history of weight loss; they had significantly more often a NRS ≥ 3. In UICC stage 1a/b, a NRS ≥ 3 was associated with a significantly reduced survival compared to patients with a NRS < 3. In early tumor stages (UICC 1a/b), a NRS ≥ 3 was associated with a significantly reduced survival, while in progressed tumor stage, the influence of a poor NRS was not significant. This seems to show that in progressed stages in patients with gastric cancer, the influence of a reduced NRS is negligible.

  9. Conceptualizing and Re-Evaluating Resilience Across Levels of Risk, Time, and Domains of Competence

    PubMed Central

    Shaw, Daniel S.

    2009-01-01

    This article examines potential theoretical constraints on resilience across levels of risk, time, and domain of outcome. Studies of resilience are reviewed as they relate to the prevalence of resilience across levels of risk (e.g., single life events vs. cumulative risk), time, and domains of adjustment. Based on a thorough review of pertinent literature, we conclude that resilience, as a global construct, appears to be rare at the highest levels of risk, and that resilience may benefit from a narrower conceptualization focusing on specific outcomes at specific timepoints in development. The implication of this conclusion for future research and intervention efforts is then discussed. PMID:18379875

  10. Nurturing Cognitive Competence in Preschoolers: A Longitudinal Study of Intergenerational Continuity and Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Saltaris, Christina; Serbin, Lisa A.; Stack, Dale M.; Karp, Jennifer A.; Schwartzman, Alex E.; Ledingham, Jane E.

    2004-01-01

    The current investigation was designed to examine the provision of cognitive stimulation to preschool-aged children from high-risk families. Participants were drawn from the Concordia Longitudinal Risk Project, a prospective, longitudinal investigation of individuals recruited in 1976-77 from lower SES neighbourhoods who were rated by childhood…

  11. Long-term results and competing risk analysis of the H89 trial in patients with advanced-stage Hodgkin lymphoma: a study by the Groupe d'Etude des Lymphomes de l'Adulte (GELA).

    PubMed

    Fermé, Christophe; Mounier, Nicolas; Casasnovas, Olivier; Brice, Pauline; Divine, Marine; Sonet, Anne; Bouafia, Fahdela; Bastard-Stamatoullas, Aspasia; Bordessoule, Dominique; Voillat, Laurent; Reman, Oumedaly; Blanc, Michel; Gisselbrecht, Christian

    2006-06-15

    From 1989 to 1996, 533 eligible patients with stage IIIB/IV Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) were randomly assigned to receive 6 cycles of hybrid MOPP/ABV (mechlorethamine, vincristine, procarbazine, prednisone/Adriamycin [doxorubicin], bleomycin, vinblastine; n = 266) or ABVPP (doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, procarbazine, prednisone; n = 267). Patients in complete remission (CR) or partial response of at least 75% after 6 cycles received 2 cycles of consolidation chemotherapy (CT) (n = 208) or subtotal nodal irradiation (RT) (n = 210). A better survival probability was observed after ABVPP alone: the 10-year overall survival (OS) estimates were 90% for ABVPP x 8, 78% for MOPP/ABV x 8, 82% for MOPP/ABV with RT, and 77% for ABVPP x 6 with RT (P = .03); and the 10-year disease-free survival (DFS) estimates were 70%, 76%, 79%, and 76%, respectively (P = .09). The 10-year DFS estimates for patients treated with consolidation CT or RT were 73% and 78% (P = .07), and OS estimates were 84% and 79%, respectively (P = .29). These results showed that RT was not superior to consolidation CT after a doxorubicin-induced CR in patients with advanced HL. An analysis of competing risks identified age more than 45 years as a significant risk factor for death, relapse, and second cancers. Prospective evaluation of late adverse events may improve the management of patients with HL.

  12. Genetic Variants in MicroRNA Biosynthesis Pathways and Binding Sites Modify Ovarian Cancer Risk, Survival, and Treatment Response

    PubMed Central

    Liang, Dong; Meyer, Larissa; Chang, David W.; Lin, Jie; Pu, Xia; Ye, Yuanqing; Gu, Jian; Wu, Xifeng; Lu, Karen

    2017-01-01

    MicroRNAs (miRNA) play important roles in tumorigenesis. Genetic variations in miRNA processing genes and miRNA binding sites may affect the biogenesis of miRNA and the regulatory effect of miRNAs to their target genes, hence promoting tumorigenesis. This study analyzed 226 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in miRNA processing genes and miRNA binding sites in 339 ovarian cancer cases and 349 healthy controls to assess association with cancer risk, overall survival, and treatment response. Thirteen polymorphisms were found to have significant association with risk. The most significant were 2 linked SNPs (r2 = 0.99), rs2740351 and rs7813 in GEMIN4 [odds ratio (OR) = 0.71; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.57–0.87 and OR = 0.71; 95% CI, 0.57–0.88, respectively]. Unfavorable genotype analysis showed the cumulative effect of these 13 SNPs on risk (P for trend < 0.0001). Potential higher order gene–gene interactions were identified, which categorized patients into different risk groups according to their genotypic signatures. In the clinical outcome study, 24 SNPs exhibited significant association with overall survival and 17 SNPs with treatment response. Notably, patients carrying a rare homozygous genotype of rs1425486 in PDGFC had poorer overall survival [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.69; 95% CI, 1.67–4.33] and worse treatment response (OR = 3.38; 95% CI, 1.39–8.19), compared to carriers of common homozygous and heterozygous genotypes. Unfavorable genotype analyses also showed a strong gene-dosage effect with decreased survival and increased risk of treatment nonresponse in patients with greater number of unfavorable genotypes (P for trend < 0.0001). Taken together, miRNA-related genetic polymorphisms may impact ovarian cancer predisposition and clinical outcome both individually and jointly. PMID:21118967

  13. Superior Survival Using Living Donors and Donor-Recipient Matching Using a Novel Living Donor Risk Index

    PubMed Central

    Goldberg, David S.; French, Benjamin; Abt, Peter L; Olthoff, Kim; Shaked, Abraham

    2014-01-01

    The deceased-donor organ supply in the U.S. has not been able to keep pace with the increasing demand for liver transplantation. We examined national OPTN/UNOS data from 2002–2012 to assess whether LDLT has surpassed deceased donor liver transplantation (DDLT) as a superior method of transplantation, and used donor and recipient characteristics to develop a risk score to optimize donor and recipient selection for LDLT. From 2002–2012, there were 2,103 LDLTs and 46,674 DDLTs that met the inclusion criteria. The unadjusted 3-year graft survival for DDLTs was 75.5% (95% CI: 75.1–76.0%) compared with 78.9% (95% CI: 76.9–80.8%; p<0.001) for LDLTs that were performed at experienced centers (>15 LDLTs), with substantial improvement in LDLT graft survival over time. In multivariable models, LDLT recipients transplanted at experienced centers with either autoimmune hepatitis or cholestatic liver disease had significantly lower risks of graft failure (HR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.37–0.84 and HR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.63–0.92, respectively). An LDLT risk score that included both donor and recipient variables facilitated stratification of LDLT recipients into high, intermediate, and low-risk groups, with predicted 3-year graft survival ranging from >87% in the lowest risk group to <74% in the highest risk group. Current post-transplant outcomes for LDLT are equivalent, if not superior to DDLT when performed at experienced centers. An LDLT risk score can be used to optimize LDLT outcomes and provides objective selection criteria for donor selection in LDLT. PMID:25042283

  14. Twitter as a Potential Disaster Risk Reduction Tool. Part IV: Competency-based Education and Training Guidelines to Promote Community Resiliency

    PubMed Central

    Yeager, Violet; Cooper, Guy Paul; Burkle, Frederick M.; Subbarao, Italo

    2015-01-01

    Twitter can be an effective tool for disaster risk reduction but gaps in education and training exist in current public health and disaster management educational competency standards.  Eleven core public health and disaster management competencies are proposed that incorporate Twitter as a tool for effective disaster risk reduction.  Greater funding is required to promote the education and training of this tool for those in professional schools and in the current public health and disaster management workforce.  PMID:26203398

  15. A collaborative national model to assess competencies for medical students, residents, and other healthcare practitioners in gait and falls risk evaluation.

    PubMed

    Atkinson, Hal H; Tan, Zaldy S; Brennan, Maura; Granville, Lisa

    2014-06-01

    To ensure that the healthcare workforce is adequately prepared to care for the growing population of older adults, minimum competencies in geriatrics have been published for medical students and primary care residents. Approaches to teaching and assessing these competencies are needed to guide medical schools, residencies, and continuing medical education programs. With sponsorship by the Education Committee and Teachers Section of the American Geriatrics Society (AGS), geriatrics educators from multiple institutions collaborated to develop a model to teach and assess a major domain of student and resident competency: Gait and Falls Risk Evaluation. The model was introduced as a workshop at annual meetings of the AGS and the American College of Physicians in 2011 and 2012. Participants included medical students, residents, geriatrics fellows, practicing physicians, and midlevel practitioners. At both national meetings, participants rated the experience highly and reported statistically significant gains in overall competence in gait and falls risk evaluation. The largest gains were observed for medical students, residents, and practicing physicians (P < .001 for all); geriatrics fellows reported a higher level of baseline competence and therefore had a lower magnitude of improvement, albeit still significant (P = .02). Finally, the majority of participants reported intent to disseminate the model in their institutions. This article describes the design, implementation, and evaluation of this collaborative national model. A number of institutions have used the model, and the goal of this article is to aid in further dissemination of this successful approach to teaching and assessing geriatrics competencies.

  16. Reducing psychosocial risks through supervisors' development: a contribution for a brief version of the "Stress Management Competency Indicator Tool".

    PubMed

    Toderi, Stefano; Gaggia, Andrea; Balducci, Cristian; Sarchielli, Guido

    2015-06-15

    With the recent changes in the world of work psychosocial risks are increasingly prevalent, causing work stress and physical and mental illnesses, which have a tremendous impact on public health and social participation. Supervisors' behaviour development was proposed as an innovative intervention that can reduce psychosocial risks. The "Stress Management Competency Indicator Tool" is one of the most important questionnaires that assess managers' preventive behaviour. However, its psychometric properties have never been evaluated and the length of the questionnaire (66 items) limits its practical applicability. The aim of this study was to contribute to the development of the questionnaire by providing psychometric evidence on a brief version of the tool focusing on the "Managing and Communicating existing and future Work" cluster of behaviours, which has been found to be the crucial one in terms of stress prevention. A questionnaire was administered to 178 employees of two Italian public organizations (a municipality and a hospital), measuring the supervisors' "Managing and Communicating existing and future Work" competency, and the affective well-being and work team effectiveness. The results showed excellent psychometric properties of the supervisors' behaviour scale and confirmed the expected relationships with criterion outcomes (affective well-being and team effectiveness). Overall, the factorial structure and dimensionality, the construct validity and reliability, and the concurrent validity of the tool were strongly supported by this study. We concluded that the brief version of the scale is a valid and reliable measure that can be easily used in practice and that can contribute to the development of research and practice on this topic.

  17. Survival and risk of relapse of acute lymphoblastic leukemia in a Mexican population is affected by dihydrofolate reductase gene polymorphisms

    PubMed Central

    GÓMEZ-GÓMEZ, YAZMÍN; ORGANISTA-NAVA, JORGE; SAAVEDRA-HERRERA, MÓNICA VIRGINIA; RIVERA-RAMÍREZ, ANA BERTHA; TERÁN-PORCAYO, MARCO ANTONIO; DEL CARMEN ALARCÓN-ROMERO, LUZ; ILLADES-AGUIAR, BERENICE; LEYVA-VÁZQUEZ, MARCO ANTONIO

    2012-01-01

    Dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR) is the major target of methotrexate, a key component in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) treatment. Polymorphisms in the gene coding for DHFR have been associated with adverse event treatment. This study evaluated the effect of the -A317G and C829T polymorphisms in the DHFR gene on survival and risk of relapse of ALL. Seventy patients with ALL and 100 healthy individuals were genotyped by the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism method. An association between the polymorphisms and the risk of relapse was found (p<0.05); patients with the -317G/G genotype were found to have an 8.55 (95% CI 1.84–39.70) higher chance of relapse and carriers of the 829T/T genotype had a 14.0 (95% CI 1.13–172.63) higher chance of relapse. Other variables, such as age and leukocyte count, were associated (p<0.05) with the risk of relapse of the disease. Individuals with the G/G and T/T genotype of the -A317G and C829T polymorphisms had poorer survival compared to other genotype groups (log-rank test; p<0.05). Although preliminary, these data seem to suggest a role for the DHFR polymorphisms in the risk of relapse of ALL and the mortality risk in these patients. PMID:22969948

  18. SLC22A3 polymorphisms do not modify pancreatic cancer risk, but may influence overall patient survival

    PubMed Central

    Mohelnikova-Duchonova, Beatrice; Strouhal, Ondrej; Hughes, David J.; Holcatova, Ivana; Oliverius, Martin; Kala, Zdenek; Campa, Daniele; Rizzato, Cosmeri; Canzian, Federico; Pezzilli, Raffaele; Talar-Wojnarowska, Renata; Malecka-Panas, Ewa; Sperti, Cosimo; Federico Zambon, Carlo; Pedrazzoli, Sergio; Fogar, Paola; Milanetto, Anna Caterina; Capurso, Gabriele; Delle Fave, Gianfranco; Valente, Roberto; Gazouli, Maria; Malleo, Giuseppe; Teresa Lawlor, Rita; Strobel, Oliver; Hackert, Thilo; Giese, Nathalia; Vodicka, Pavel; Vodickova, Ludmila; Landi, Stefano; Tavano, Francesca; Gioffreda, Domenica; Piepoli, Ada; Pazienza, Valerio; Mambrini, Andrea; Pedata, Mariangela; Cantore, Maurizio; Bambi, Franco; Ermini, Stefano; Funel, Niccola; Lemstrova, Radmila; Soucek, Pavel

    2017-01-01

    Expression of the solute carrier (SLC) transporter SLC22A3 gene is associated with overall survival of pancreatic cancer patients. This study tested whether genetic variability in SLC22A3 associates with pancreatic cancer risk and prognosis. Twenty four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) tagging the SLC22A3 gene sequence and regulatory elements were selected for analysis. Of these, 22 were successfully evaluated in the discovery phase while six significant or suggestive variants entered the validation phase, comprising a total study number of 1,518 cases and 3,908 controls. In the discovery phase, rs2504938, rs9364554, and rs2457571 SNPs were significantly associated with pancreatic cancer risk. Moreover, rs7758229 associated with the presence of distant metastases, while rs512077 and rs2504956 correlated with overall survival of patients. Although replicated, the association for rs9364554 did not pass multiple testing corrections in the validation phase. Contrary to the discovery stage, rs2504938 associated with survival in the validation cohort, which was more pronounced in stage IV patients. In conclusion, common variation in the SLC22A3 gene is unlikely to significantly contribute to pancreatic cancer risk. The rs2504938 SNP in SLC22A3 significantly associates with an unfavorable prognosis of pancreatic cancer patients. Further investigation of this SNP effect on the molecular and clinical phenotype is warranted. PMID:28272475

  19. [Biological risk in health. Risk to third parties: medical-legal focus. Responsible behavior of the competent physician].

    PubMed

    Rodriguez, Daniele

    2010-01-01

    The responsibility of the occupational physician (OP) is discussed within the particular topic of biological risk generated by health care workers (HCW) versus third parties in health care settings. The present contribution offers keys of interpretation regarding current Italian legislation and passed sentences, taking into account principles of occupational medicine, the ICOH code of ethics for occupational health professionals, as well as duties and tasks of OP, employers and employees. Most of the responsibilities stand on employers, but OP has a primary duty of information and to judge fitness for work. It is underlined the difficult interpretation of the current legislation and indications. Behaviour of the OP could be censored in case of particular fitness for work or in case of inadequate information, as well as if the comprehension of information is not verified or when indication to minimize the risk are not controlled.

  20. Resilience and Risk Competence in Schools: Theory/Knowledge and International Application in Project REBOUND

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Joel H.; Jean-Marie, Gaetane; Beck, Jerome

    2010-01-01

    Despite a 50-year interdisciplinary and longitudinal research legacy--showing that nearly 80% of young people considered most "at risk" thrive by midlife--only recently have practitioners/researchers engaged in the explicit, prospective facilitation of "resilience" in educational settings. Here, theory/knowledge distinguishing…

  1. A Multivariate Investigation of Maternal Risks and Their Relationship to Low-Income, Preschool Children's Competencies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perry, Marlo A.; Fantuzzo, John W.

    2010-01-01

    Utilizing a developmental-ecological framework, the purpose of this study was to understand the unique impact of multiple maternal risks across time on ethnically diverse, low-income, preschool children's cognitive skills, pro-social behaviors, and behavior problems. Additionally, this study sought to understand the variability of maternal risks…

  2. Child Care Providers' Competence and Confidence in Referring Children at Risk for Developmental Delays

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Branson, Diane; Bingham, Ann

    2017-01-01

    Despite the benefits of early intervention for children, the majority of children with developmental delays are not identified prior to the age of 5 years. Child care providers could aid in recognition of children at risk for developmental delays; however, there is little research on this topic. This article reports on a qualitative research study…

  3. Socioenvironmental Risk and Adjustment in Latino Youth: The Mediating Effects of Family Processes and Social Competence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prelow, Hazel M.; Loukas, Alexandra; Jordan-Green, Lisa

    2007-01-01

    The direct and mediated effects of socioenvironmental risk on internalizing and externalizing problems among Latino youth aged 10-14 were examined using prospective analyses. Participants in this study were 464 Latino mother and child dyads surveyed as part of the "Welfare, Children & Families: A Three City Study." It was hypothesized that…

  4. The EARLY ALLIANCE prevention trial: an integrated set of interventions to promote competence and reduce risk for conduct disorder, substance abuse, and school failure.

    PubMed

    Dumas, J E; Prinz, R J; Smith, E P; Laughlin, J

    1999-03-01

    Describes the EARLY ALLIANCE interventions, an integrated set of four programs designed to promote competence and reduce risk for early-onset conduct disorder, substance abuse, and school failure. These interventions are evaluated as part of a prevention trial that begins at school entry and targets child functioning and socializing practices across multiple contexts (school, peer group, family) and multiple domains (affective, social, and achievement coping-competence). The paper presents the conceptual foundation of the four interventions, including a synopsis of the risk and protective factors associated with conduct disorder and related outcomes, and of the coping-competence model driving EARLY ALLIANCE. The developmental rationale, intended impact, and procedures are described for each intervention: a universally administered classroom program and indicated, peer, reading-mentoring, and family programs. Interventions are currently being tested in a prevention trial, which is briefly summarized.

  5. Effect of folylpolyglutamate synthase A22G polymorphism on the risk and survival of patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia

    PubMed Central

    GÓMEZ-GÓMEZ, YAZMÍN; ORGANISTA-NAVA, JORGE; RANGEL-RODRIGUEZ, CARLOS ALBERTO; ILLADES-AGUIAR, BERENICE; MORENO-GODÍNEZ, MARÍA ELENA; ALARCÓN-ROMERO, LUZ DEL CARMEN; LEYVA-VÁZQUEZ, MARCO ANTONIO

    2014-01-01

    Folylpolyglutamate synthase (FPGS) is the key enzyme that converts the chemotherapeutic agent, methotrexate (MTX), into MTX polyglutamate. An A22G polymorphism has been found in the FPGS gene. This study aimed to evaluated whether the A22G polymorphism in the FPGS gene is associated with an increased risk of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and whether it plays a role in increasing the survival of patients with ALL. In this study, a total of 70 patients with ALL and 100 healthy individuals were genotyped by polymerase chain reaction and sequencing methods. The homozygous variant, 22G/G [odds ratio (OR)=3.88; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.50–6.03] and the heterozygous variant, 22A/G (OR=1.37; 95% CI: 1.26–48.95) were risk factors for ALL. Patients with the 22A/G genotype had an OR of 1.81 (95% CI: 1.57–5.74; P=0.049) and carriers of the 22G/G genotype had an OR of 2.44 (95% CI: 2.40–11.82; P=0.017) for relapse. A significant association between the A22G polymorphism and survival of patients with ALL was found (P<0.05); whereas, individuals with A/G or G/G genotypes had a decreased overall survival (log-rank test, P=0.044). Although preliminary, these data suggest that the genotypes of the A22G polymorphism may be risk factors for ALL and may play a role in the survival of patients with ALL. PMID:25013492

  6. Outcomes and long-term survival of coronary artery surgery: The controversial role of opium as risk marker

    PubMed Central

    Najafi, Mahdi; Jahangiry, Leila; Mortazavi, Seyedeh Hamideh; Jalali, Arash; Karimi, Abbasali; Bozorgi, Ali

    2016-01-01

    AIM To study survival in isolated coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) patients and to evaluate the impact of preoperative chronic opium consumption on long-term outcome. METHODS Cohort of 566 isolated CABG patients as Tehran Heart Center cardiac output measurement was conducted. Daily evaluation until discharge as well as 4- and 12-mo and 6.5-year follow-up information for survival status were fulfilled for all patients. Long-term 6.5-year overall and opium-stratified survival, adjusted survival curves based on opium consumption as well as possible predictors of all-cause mortality using multiple cox regression were determined by statistical analysis. RESULTS Six point five-year overall survival was 91.8%; 86.6% in opium consumers and 92.7% in non-opium consumers (P = 0.035). Patients with positive history of opium consumption significantly tended to have lower ejection fraction (EF), higher creatinine level and higher prevalence of myocardial infarction. Multiple predictors of all-cause mortality included age, body mass index, EF, diabetes mellitus and cerebrovascular accident. The hazard ratio (HR) of 2.09 for the risk of mortality in opium addicted patients with a borderline P value (P = 0.052) was calculated in this model. Further adjustment with stratification based on smoking and opium addiction reduced the HR to 1.20 (P = 0.355). CONCLUSION Simultaneous impact of smoking as a confounding variable in most of the patients prevents from definitive judgment on the role of opium as an independent contributing factor in worse long-term survival of CABG patients in addition to advanced age, low EF, diabetes mellitus and cerebrovascular accident. Meanwhile, our findings do not confirm any cardio protective role for opium to improve outcome in coronary patients with the history of smoking. Further studies are needed to clarify pure effect of opium and warrant the aforementioned findings. PMID:27957254

  7. Competence, Self-Esteem, and Coping Efficacy as Mediators of Ecological Risk and Depressive Symptoms in Urban African American and European American Youth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prelow, Hazel M.; Weaver, Scott R.; Swenson, Rebecca R.

    2006-01-01

    Structural equation modeling was used to test [Sandler, "American Journal of Community Psychology" 29: 19-61.] a theoretical model of risk and resilience in an urban sample of African American and European American adolescents. The aims of the present study were to examine whether self-system processes (i.e., competence, self-esteem, and coping…

  8. Examining mortality risk and rate of ageing among Polish Olympic athletes: a survival follow-up from 1924 to 2012

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Yuhui; Gajewski, Antoni; Poznańska, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Population-based studies have shown that an active lifestyle reduces mortality risk. Therefore, it has been a longstanding belief that individuals who engage in frequent exercise will experience a slower rate of ageing. It is uncertain whether this widely-accepted assumption holds for intense wear-and-tear. Here, using the 88 years survival follow-up data of Polish Olympic athletes, we report for the first time on whether frequent exercise alters the rate of ageing. Design Longitudinal survival data of male elite Polish athletes who participated in the Olympic Games from year 1924 to 2010 were used. Deaths occurring before the end of World War II were excluded for reliable estimates. Setting and participants Recruited male elite athletes N=1273 were preassigned to two categorical birth cohorts—Cohort I 1890–1919; Cohort II 1920–1959—and a parametric frailty survival analysis was conducted. An event-history analysis was also conducted to adjust for medical improvements from year 1920 onwards: Cohort II. Results Our findings suggest (1) in Cohort I, for every threefold reduction in mortality risk, the rate of ageing decelerates by 1%; (2) socioeconomic transitions and interventions contribute to a reduction in mortality risk of 29% for the general population and 50% for Olympic athletes; (3) an optimum benefit gained for reducing the rate of ageing from competitive sports (Cohort I 0.086 (95% CI 0.047 to 0.157) and Cohort II 0.085 (95% CI 0.050 to 0.144)). Conclusions This study further suggests that intensive physical training during youth should be considered as a factor to improve ageing and mortality risk parameters. PMID:27091824

  9. Association Between NRAS and BRAF Mutational Status and Melanoma-Specific Survival Among Patients With Higher Risk Primary Melanoma

    PubMed Central

    Thomas, Nancy E.; Edmiston, Sharon N.; Alexander, Audrey; Groben, Pamela A.; Parrish, Eloise; Kricker, Anne; Armstrong, Bruce K.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Gruber, Stephen B.; From, Lynn; Busam, Klaus J.; Hao, Honglin; Orlow, Irene; Kanetsky, Peter A.; Luo, Li; Reiner, Anne S.; Paine, Susan; Frank, Jill S.; Bramson, Jennifer I.; Marrett, Lorraine D.; Gallagher, Richard P.; Zanetti, Roberto; Rosso, Stefano; Dwyer, Terence; Cust, Anne E.; Ollila, David W.; Begg, Colin B.; Berwick, Marianne; Conway, Kathleen

    2015-01-01

    Importance NRAS and BRAF mutations in melanoma inform current treatment paradigms but their role in survival from primary melanoma has not been established. Identification of patients at high risk of melanoma-related death based on their primary melanoma characteristics before evidence of recurrence could inform recommendations for patient follow-up and eligibility for adjuvant trials. Objective To determine tumor characteristics and survival from primary melanoma by somatic NRAS and BRAF status. Design, Setting, and Participants A population-based study with median follow-up of 7.6 years for 912 patients with first primary cutaneous melanoma analyzed for NRAS and BRAF mutations diagnosed in the year 2000 from the United States and Australia in the Genes, Environment and Melanoma Study and followed through 2007. Main Outcomes and Measures Tumor characteristics and melanoma-specific survival of primary melanoma by NRAS and BRAF mutational status. Results The melanomas were 13% NRAS+, 30% BRAF+, and 57% with neither NRAS nor BRAF mutation (wildtype). In a multivariable model including clinicopathologic characteristics, NRAS+ melanoma was associated (P<.05) with mitoses, lower tumor infiltrating lymphocyte (TIL) grade, and anatomic site other than scalp/neck and BRAF+ melanoma was associated with younger age, superficial spreading subtype, and mitoses, relative to wildtype melanoma. There was no significant difference in melanoma-specific survival for melanoma harboring mutations in NRAS (HR 1.7, 95% CI, 0.8–3.4) or BRAF (HR, 1.5, 95% CI, 0.8–2.9) compared to wildtype melanoma adjusted for age, sex, site, AJCC tumor stage, TIL grade, and study center. However, melanoma-specific survival was significantly poorer for higher risk (T2b or higher stage) tumors with NRAS (HR 2.9; 95% CI 1.1–7.7) or BRAF (HR 3.1; 95% CI 1.2–8.5) mutations but not for lower risk (T2a or lower) tumors (P=.65) adjusted for age, sex, site, AJCC tumor stage, TIL grade, and study center

  10. Improved Survival Endpoints With Adjuvant Radiation Treatment in Patients With High-Risk Early-Stage Endometrial Carcinoma

    SciTech Connect

    Elshaikh, Mohamed A.; Vance, Sean; Suri, Jaipreet S.; Mahan, Meredith; Munkarah, Adnan

    2014-02-01

    Purpose/Objective(s): To determine the impact of adjuvant radiation treatment (RT) on recurrence-free survival (RFS), disease-specific survival (DSS), and overall survival (OS) in patients with high-risk 2009 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage I-II endometrial carcinoma. Methods and Materials: We identified 382 patients with high-risk EC who underwent hysterectomy. RFS, DSS, and OS were calculated from the date of hysterectomy by use of the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox regression modeling was used to explore the risks associated with various factors on survival endpoints. Results: The median follow-up time for the study cohort was 5.4 years. The median age was 71 years. All patients underwent hysterectomy and salpingo-oophorectomy, 93% had peritoneal cytology, and 85% underwent lymphadenectomy. Patients with endometrioid histology constituted 72% of the study cohort, serous in 16%, clear cell in 7%, and mixed histology in 4%. Twenty-three percent of patients had stage II disease. Adjuvant management included RT alone in 220 patients (57%), chemotherapy alone in 25 patients (7%), and chemoradiation therapy in 27 patients (7%); 110 patients (29%) were treated with close surveillance. The 5-year RFS, DSS, and OS were 76%, 88%, and 73%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, adjuvant RT was a significant predictor of RFS (P<.001) DSS (P<.001), and OS (P=.017). Lymphovascular space involvement was a significant predictor of RFS and DSS (P<.001). High tumor grade was a significant predictor for RFS (P=.038) and DSS (P=.025). Involvement of the lower uterine segment was also a predictor of RFS (P=.049). Age at diagnosis and lymphovascular space involvement were significant predictors of OS: P<.001 and P=.002, respectively. Conclusion: In the treatment of patients with high-risk features, our study suggests that adjuvant RT significantly improves recurrence-free, disease-specific, and overall survival in patients with early-stage endometrial carcinoma

  11. A hybrid approach of gene sets and single genes for the prediction of survival risks with gene expression data.

    PubMed

    Seok, Junhee; Davis, Ronald W; Xiao, Wenzhong

    2015-01-01

    Accumulated biological knowledge is often encoded as gene sets, collections of genes associated with similar biological functions or pathways. The use of gene sets in the analyses of high-throughput gene expression data has been intensively studied and applied in clinical research. However, the main interest remains in finding modules of biological knowledge, or corresponding gene sets, significantly associated with disease conditions. Risk prediction from censored survival times using gene sets hasn't been well studied. In this work, we propose a hybrid method that uses both single gene and gene set information together to predict patient survival risks from gene expression profiles. In the proposed method, gene sets provide context-level information that is poorly reflected by single genes. Complementarily, single genes help to supplement incomplete information of gene sets due to our imperfect biomedical knowledge. Through the tests over multiple data sets of cancer and trauma injury, the proposed method showed robust and improved performance compared with the conventional approaches with only single genes or gene sets solely. Additionally, we examined the prediction result in the trauma injury data, and showed that the modules of biological knowledge used in the prediction by the proposed method were highly interpretable in biology. A wide range of survival prediction problems in clinical genomics is expected to benefit from the use of biological knowledge.

  12. Estimating the lifetime risk of dementia in the Canadian elderly population using cross-sectional cohort survival data

    PubMed Central

    Carone, Marco; Asgharian, Masoud; Jewell, Nicholas P.

    2014-01-01

    Dementia is one of the world’s major public health challenges. The lifetime risk of dementia is the proportion of individuals who ever develop dementia during their lifetime. Despite its importance to epidemiologists and policy-makers, this measure does not seem to have been estimated in the Canadian population. Data from a birth cohort study of dementia are not available. Instead, we must rely on data from the Canadian Study of Heath and Aging, a large cross-sectional study of dementia with follow-up for survival. These data present challenges because they include substantial loss to follow-up and are not representatively drawn from the target population because of structural sampling biases. A first bias is imparted by the cross-sectional sampling scheme, while a second bias is a result of stratified sampling. Estimation of the lifetime risk and related quantities in the presence of these biases has not been previously addressed in the literature. We develop and study nonparametric estimators of the lifetime risk, the remaining lifetime risk and cumulative risk at specific ages, accounting for these complexities. In particular, we reveal the fact that estimation of the lifetime risk is invariant to stratification by current age at sampling. We present simulation results validating our methodology, and provide novel facts about the epidemiology of dementia in Canada using data from the Canadian Study of Health and Aging. PMID:26139951

  13. Increased PD-1/STAT1 ratio may account for the survival benefit in decitabine therapy for lower risk myelodysplastic syndrome.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zheng; Chang, Chun-Kang; He, Qi; Guo, Juan; Tao, Ying; Wu, Ling-Yun; Xu, Feng; Wu, Dong; Zhou, Li-Yu; Su, Ji-Ying; Song, Lu-Xi; Xiao, Chao; Li, Xiao

    2017-04-01

    Decitabine is an effective therapy for patients with lower risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). However, the mechanisms of decitabine's therapeutic effect are not well established. Forty-four lower risk MDS patients received decitabine therapy. 59.1% patients achieved treatment response, and 53.8% patients who were RBC/platelet-dependent cast off the transfusion burden. The median overall survival (OS) was 19.0 months after decitabine treatment. Moreover, polarization toward type 1 in the CD8 + subset was enhanced, and a significantly increased expression of the PD-1, PD-L1, and PD-1/STAT1 ratio was observed in these lower risk MDS. The patients with amplification of PD-1/STAT1 ratio (2-4) achieved longer OS. Thus, our results suggest that the effect mechanism of decitabine toward lower risk MDS may be the moderate increase of PD-1/STAT1, which contributes to hematopoietic improvement. These findings suggest that a different PD-1-related strategy from those used to treat higher risk patients could be used for lower risk MDS patients.

  14. Long‐Term Post‐CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions

    PubMed Central

    Carr, Brendan M.; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C.; Zhu, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Background/aim Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short‐term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long‐term mortality. The added value of long‐term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long‐term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Methods Long‐term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c‐index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed. Results Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one‐, three‐, and five years, respectively (median follow‐up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long‐term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Conclusions Long‐term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long‐term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher‐risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow‐up care. More research appears warranted to refine long‐term CABG clinical risk models. doi: 10.1111/jocs.12665 (J Card Surg 2016;31:23–30) PMID:26543019

  15. African American Race is an Independent Risk Factor in Survival from Initially Diagnosed Localized Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Wieder, Robert; Shafiq, Basit; Adam, Nabil

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: African American race negatively impacts survival from localized breast cancer but co-variable factors confound the impact. METHODS: Data sets were analyzed from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) directories from 1973 to 2011 consisting of patients with designated diagnosis of breast adenocarcinoma, race as White or Caucasian, Black or African American, Asian, American Indian or Alaskan Native, Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, age, stage I, II or III, grade 1, 2 or 3, estrogen receptor or progesterone receptor positive or negative, marital status as single, married, separated, divorced or widowed and laterality as right or left. The Cox Proportional Hazards Regression model was used to determine hazard ratios for survival. Chi square test was applied to determine the interdependence of variables found significant in the multivariable Cox Proportional Hazards Regression analysis. Cells with stratified data of patients with identical characteristics except African American or Caucasian race were compared. RESULTS: Age, stage, grade, ER and PR status and marital status significantly co-varied with race and with each other. Stratifications by single co-variables demonstrated worse hazard ratios for survival for African Americans. Stratification by three and four co-variables demonstrated worse hazard ratios for survival for African Americans in most subgroupings with sufficient numbers of values. Differences in some subgroupings containing poor prognostic co-variables did not reach significance, suggesting that race effects may be partly overcome by additional poor prognostic indicators. CONCLUSIONS: African American race is a poor prognostic indicator for survival from breast cancer independent of 6 associated co-variables with prognostic significance. PMID:27698895

  16. Efficient Estimation of Semiparametric Transformation Models for the Cumulative Incidence of Competing Risks.

    PubMed

    Mao, Lu; Lin, D Y

    2017-03-01

    The cumulative incidence is the probability of failure from the cause of interest over a certain time period in the presence of other risks. A semiparametric regression model proposed by Fine and Gray (1999) has become the method of choice for formulating the effects of covariates on the cumulative incidence. Its estimation, however, requires modeling of the censoring distribution and is not statistically efficient. In this paper, we present a broad class of semiparametric transformation models which extends the Fine and Gray model, and we allow for unknown causes of failure. We derive the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators (NPMLEs) and develop simple and fast numerical algorithms using the profile likelihood. We establish the consistency, asymptotic normality, and semiparametric efficiency of the NPMLEs. In addition, we construct graphical and numerical procedures to evaluate and select models. Finally, we demonstrate the advantages of the proposed methods over the existing ones through extensive simulation studies and an application to a major study on bone marrow transplantation.

  17. Background level of risk and the survival of predator-naive prey: can neophobia compensate for predator naivety in juvenile coral reef fishes?

    PubMed

    Ferrari, Maud C O; McCormick, Mark I; Meekan, Mark G; Chivers, Douglas P

    2015-01-22

    Neophobia--the generalized fear response to novel stimuli--provides the first potential strategy that predator-naive prey may use to survive initial predator encounters. This phenotype appears to be highly plastic and present in individuals experiencing high-risk environments, but rarer in those experiencing low-risk environments. Despite the appeal of this strategy as a 'solution' for prey naivety, we lack evidence that this strategy provides any fitness benefit to prey. Here, we compare the relative effect of environmental risk (high versus low) and predator-recognition training (predator-naive versus predator-experienced individuals) on the survival of juvenile fish in the wild. We found that juveniles raised in high-risk conditions survived better than those raised in low-risk conditions, providing the first empirical evidence that environmental risk, in the absence of any predator-specific information, affects the way naive prey survive in a novel environment. Both risk level and experience affected survival; however, the two factors did not interact, indicating that the information provided by both factors did not interfere or enhance each other. From a mechanistic viewpoint, this indicates that the combination of the two factors may increase the intensity, and hence efficacy, of prey evasion strategies, or that both factors provide qualitatively separate benefits that would result in an additive survival success.

  18. Evaluating predictors of competing risk outcomes when censoring depends on time-dependent covariates, with application to safety and efficacy of HIV treatment.

    PubMed

    Lok, Judith J; Hughes, Michael D

    2016-06-15

    We propose a prediction model for the cumulative incidence functions of competing risks, based on a logit link. Because of a concern about censoring potentially depending on time-varying covariates in our motivating human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) application, we describe an approach for estimating the parameters in the prediction models using inverse probability of censoring weighting under a missingness at random assumption. We then illustrate the application of this methodology to identify predictors of the competing outcomes of virologic failure, an efficacy outcome, and treatment limiting adverse event, a safety outcome, among human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients first starting antiretroviral treatment. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Cumulative Risk for Early Sexual Initiation among American Indian Youth: A Discrete-Time Survival Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mitchell, Christina M.; Whitesell, Nancy Rumbaugh; Spicer, Paul; Beals, Janette; Kaufman, Carol E.

    2007-01-01

    Approximately 3 million teens are diagnosed with a sexually transmitted disease (STD) annually; STDs rates for American Indian young adults are among the highest of any racial/ethnic group. An important risk factor for STDs is early initiation of sex. In this study, we examined risk for early initiation with 474 American Indian youth ages 14-18,…

  20. Personalized risk prediction for event-free survival at 24 months in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

    PubMed Central

    Maurer, Matthew J.; Jais, Jean-Philippe; Ghesquières, Hervé; Witzig, Thomas E.; Hong, Fangxin; Haioun, Corinne; Thompson, Carrie A.; Thieblemont, Catherine; Micallef, Ivana N.; Porrata, Luis F.; Ribrag, Vincent; Nowakowski, Gregorz S.; Casanovas, Olivier; Bologna, Serge; Morschhauser, Franck; Morrison, Vicki A.; Peterson, Bruce A.; Macon, William R.; Copie-Bergman, Christiane; Feldman, Andrew L.; Syrbu, Sergei I.; Kurtin, Paul J.; Gascoyne, Randy D.; Li, Hailun; Allmer, Cristine; Kahl, Brad S.; Ansell, Stephen M.; Slager, Susan L.; Link, Brian K.; Salles, Gilles; Habermann, Thomas M.; Tilly, Hervé; Cerhan, James R.

    2016-01-01

    We recently defined event-free survival at 24 months (EFS24) as a clinically relevant outcome for patients with DLBCL. Patients who fail EFS24 have very poor overall survival, while those who achieve EFS24 have a subsequent overall survival equivalent to that of the age- and sex-matched general population. Here, we develop and validate a clinical risk calculator (IPI24) for EFS24. Model building was performed on a discovery dataset of 1,348 patients with DLBCL and treated with anthracycline-based immunochemotherapy. A multivariable model containing age, Ann Arbor stage, normalized serum LDH, ALC, ECOG performance status, bulky disease, and sex was identified. The model was then applied to an independent validation dataset of 1,177 DLBCL patients. The IPI24 score estimates the probability of failing to achieve the EFS24 endpoint for an individual patient. The IPI24 model showed superior discriminatory ability (c-statistic = 0.671) in the validation dataset compared to the IPI (c-statistic = 0.649) or the NCCN-IPI (c-statistic = 0.657). After recalibration of the model on the combined dataset, the median predicted probability of failing to achieve EFS24 was 36% (range, 12–88%), and the IPI24 showed an EFS24 gradient in all IPI groups. The IPI24 also identified a significant percentage of patients with high risk disease, with over 20% of patients having a 50% or higher risk of failing to achieve EFS24. The IPI24 provides an individual patient level probability of achieving the clinically relevant EFS24 endpoint. It can be used via electronic apps. PMID:26492520

  1. Association of GSTO1 and GSTO2 Polymorphism with Risk of End-Stage Renal Disease Development and Patient Survival

    PubMed Central

    Cimbaljevic, Slavica; Suvakov, Sonja; Matic, Marija; Pljesa-Ercegovac, Marija; Pekmezovic, Tatjana; Radic, Tanja; Coric, Vesna; Damjanovic, Tatjana; Dimkovic, Nada; Markovic, Rodoljub; Savic-Radojevic, Ana

    2016-01-01

    Summary Background Oxidative stress in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) is associated with long-term cardiovascular complications. The cytosolic family of glutathione S-transferases (GSTs) is involved in the detoxication of various toxic compounds and antioxidant protection. GST omega class members, GSTO1 and GSTO2 possess, unlike other GSTs, dehydroascorbate reductase and deglutathionylation activities. The aim of this study was to clarify the role of genetic polymorphisms of GSTO1 (rs4925) and GSTO2 (rs156697) as risk determinants for ESRD development, as well as in the survival of these patients. Methods A total of 199 patients and 199 healthy subjects were included in the study and genotyped for both GSTO1 and GSTO2 polymorphism. Protein thiol and carbonyl groups as markers of protein oxidative damage were determined spectrophotometrically. Cox proportional hazard model and Kaplan-Meier analysis were performed to investigate the role of GSTO1 and GSTO2 genetic polymorphism on mortality of ESRD patients during the follow-up period (36 month). Results Individuals carrying the variant GSTO2 GG genotype were at 2.45-fold higher risk of ESRD development compared to the wild type GSTO2 AA genotype (OR=2.45; 95%CI=1.18–5.07; p=0.016). The results of GSTO1/ GSTO2 haplotype analysis showed that the haplotype combination of GSTO1 (*A)/GSTO2 (*A) (GSTO1 variant/GSTO2 wild type allele) was protective for ESRD (OR=0.23 95%CI=0.12-0.44, p=0.001). Patients carrying at least one GSTO1 reference allele have shorter mean overall (Log rank=2.844, p =0.241) and cardiovascular survival probability (Log rank=4.211, p=0.122). Conclusions GSTO polymorphisms have been shown to act as significant markers in assessing the risk of ESRD development and patients’ survival. PMID:28356881

  2. Negotiating competency, professionalism and risk: the integration of complementary and alternative medicine by nurses and midwives in NHS hospitals.

    PubMed

    Cant, Sarah; Watts, Peter; Ruston, Annmarie

    2011-02-01

    This qualitative interview study examined the use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) by nurses and midwives in NHS hospital settings in 2008 in the UK. It showed that the groundswell of interest in CAM in the 1990s had diminished by this time due to changes to policy and funding, and increasingly stringent clinical governance. Nevertheless, CAM provided an opportunity for committed and self-motivated practitioners to extend their therapeutic repertoire and develop affective dimensions of practice. However, the integration of CAM did not afford the autonomy, status and material gains traditionally associated with a collective professional project. In practice, occupational strategies were individualistic, and grounded in the assertion of competency through expressions of professionalism rather than the credentialism which underpins classic professionalisation. Central to these strategies was CAM related risk, which became a means by which to claim occupational space. However, the extent to which the adoption of CAM enhanced the nurses' and midwives' roles was limited by traditional medical authority; the uncertain status of CAM knowledge; and the absence of collective strategies - which together often left practitioners in a position of vulnerability.

  3. Survival benefit in women with BRCA1 mutation or familial risk in the MRI screening study (MRISC).

    PubMed

    Saadatmand, Sepideh; Obdeijn, Inge-Marie; Rutgers, Emiel J; Oosterwijk, Jan C; Tollenaar, Rob A; Woldringh, Gwendolyn H; Bergers, Elisabeth; Verhoef, Cornelis; Heijnsdijk, Eveline A; Hooning, Maartje J; de Koning, Harry J; Tilanus-Linthorst, Madeleine M

    2015-10-01

    Adding MRI to annual mammography screening improves early breast cancer detection in women with familial risk or BRCA1/2 mutation, but breast cancer specific metastasis free survival (MFS) remains unknown. We compared MFS of patients from the largest prospective MRI Screening Study (MRISC) with 1:1 matched controls. Controls, unscreened if<50 years, and screened with biennial mammography if ≥50 years, were matched on risk category (BRCA1, BRCA2, familial risk), year and age of diagnosis. Of 2,308 MRISC participants, breast cancer was detected in 93 (97 breast cancers), who received MRI <2 years before breast cancer diagnosis; 33 BRCA1 mutation carriers, 18 BRCA2 mutation carriers, and 42 with familial risk. MRISC patients had smaller (87% vs. 52% risk (log-rank p = 0.024, HR: 0.21, 95% CI 0.04-0.95), and in BRCA1 mutation carriers (log-rank p = 0.055, HR 0.30, 95% CI 0.08-1.13). MFS remained better in MRISC patients after lead time correction (log-rank p = 0.020, HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.18-0.90). Overall survival was non-significantly better in MRISC patients (log-rank p = 0.064, HR 0.51, CI 0.24-1.06). Annual screening with MRI and mammography improves metastasis free survival in women with BRCA1 mutation or familial predisposition.

  4. Impact of High Risk for Obstructive Sleep Apnea on Survival after Acute Coronary Syndrome: Insights from the ERICO Registry

    PubMed Central

    Maia, Flavia C; Goulart, Alessandra C.; Drager, Luciano F.; Staniak, Henrique L.; Santos, Itamar de Souza; Lotufo, Paulo Andrade; Bensenor, Isabela M.

    2017-01-01

    Background Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a very often clinical condition that can be associated with high mortality risk, particularly in coronary heart disease (CHD). The diagnosis of OSA is not always accessible via the gold-standard method polysomnography. Objective To evaluate long-term influence of the high risk for OSA on fatal and non-fatal outcomes after acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in the Acute Coronary Syndrome Registry Strategy (ERICO) Study using the Berlin questionnaire as a surrogate. Methods Berlin questionnaire, a screening questionnaire for OSA, was applied in 639 cases of ACS 30 days after the index event. Cox regression proportional-hazards model was used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) of all-cause, cardiovascular and CHD (myocardial infarction) mortality, as well as, the combined endpoint of fatal or recurrent non-fatal CHD. Results The high-risk group for OSA had higher frequencies of previous personal/family history of CHD and diabetes, in addition to a poorer event-free survival, as compared to the low-risk group (p-log-rank=0.03). The HR for fatal or recurrent non-fatal CHD was 4.26 (95% confidence interval, 1.18 - 15.36) in patients at high risk for OSA compared to those at low risk for OSA after a 2.6-year mean follow-up. Conclusions Using Berlin questionnaire, we were able to identify high risk for OSA as an independent predictor of non-fatal reinfarction or CHD mortality in post-ACS individuals in a long-term follow-up. PMID:28146212

  5. Risk of pneumonia and urinary tract infection within the first week after total hip arthroplasty and the impact on survival

    PubMed Central

    Glassou, Eva N; Hansen, Torben B; Pedersen, Alma B

    2017-01-01

    Background Pneumonia and urinary tract infections (UTIs) increase morbidity and mortality. There is little epidemiological evidence from large population-based studies on risk factors for these infections and subsequent mortality in total hip arthroplasty (THA) patients. Aim To examine the risk factors of postoperative pneumonia and UTI after THA and their impact on survival. Patients and methods We used the Danish Hip Arthroplasty Register to identify THAs due to osteoarthritis registered from 2000 to 2013. We collected data about comorbidities, mortality and infections in relation to primary hospitalization and potential predictive variables from administrative databases. Regression models were used to estimate associations between potential risk factors and infection, and subsequently, between infection and mortality. Results In total 84,812 THAs were included. The cumulative incidence of pneumonia and UTI within 7 days of the primary procedure were 0.21 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.18–0.25) and 0.29 (95% CI: 0.26–0.33), respectively. Patient-related risk factors for infection were being 80 years or older, gender and a comorbidity burden at time of surgery. The hazard ratio (HR) of dying within 90 days of the primary THA was 10.67 (95% CI: 5.79–19.57) compared to patients without pneumonia. For patients with UTIs, the HR was 1.64 (95% CI: 0.41–6.59) compared to those without a UTI. Conclusion Pneumonia was associated with an increased short-term risk of dying, despite adjustment for coexisting comorbidity and other potential confounders. Age, gender and comorbidity were the most important risk factors for pneumonia and UTIs. Individual initiatives to reduce the risk of pneumonia in select patient groups may be essential to the effort to optimize outcomes after a THA. PMID:28176979

  6. Genetic variation in C-reactive protein (CRP) in relation to colon and rectal cancer risk and survival

    PubMed Central

    Slattery, Martha L.; Curtin, Karen; Poole, Elizabeth M.; Duggan, David J.; Samowitz, Wade S.; Peters, Ulrike; Caan, Bette J.; Potter, John D.; Ulrich, Cornelia M.

    2011-01-01

    Background C-reactive protein (CRP), a biomarker of inflammation has been shown to be influenced by genetic variation in the CRP gene. Methods In this study, we test the hypothesis that genetic variation in CRP influences both the risk of developing colon and rectal cancer and survival. Two population-based studies of colon cancer (n=1574 cases, 1970 controls) and rectal (n=791 cases, 999 controls) were conducted. We evaluated four CRP tagSNPs: rs1205 (G>A, 3’ UTR); rs1417938 (T>A, intron); rs1800947 (G>C, L184L); and rs3093075 (C>A, 3’ flanking). Results The CRP rs1205 AA genotype was associated with an increased risk of colon cancer (OR 1.3, 95%CI 1.1-1.7), whereas the rs3093075 A allele was associated with a reduced risk of rectal cancer (OR 0.7, 95%CI 0.5-0.9). The strongest association for the rs1205 polymorphism and colon cancer was observed among those with KRAS2 mutations (OR 1.5, 95%CI 1.1-2.0). The CRP rs1205 AA genotype also was associated with an increased risk of CIMP+ rectal tumors (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.2-5.3); conversely, the rs1417938 A allele was associated with a reduced risk of CIMP+ rectal tumors (OR 0.5, 95%CI 0.3-0.9). We observed interactions between CRP rs1800947 and BMI and family history of CRC in modifying risk of both colon and rectal cancer. Conclusions These data suggest that genetic variation in the CRP gene influences risk of both colon and rectal cancer development. PMID:20949557

  7. Acetabular revision with impaction bone grafting and a cemented polyethylene acetabular component: comparison of the Kaplan-Meier analysis to the competing risk analysis in 62 revisions with 25 to 30 years follow-up.

    PubMed

    Te Stroet, M A J; Keurentjes, J C; Rijnen, W H C; Gardeniers, J W M; Verdonschot, N; Slooff, T J J H; Schreurs, B W

    2015-10-01

    We present the results of 62 consecutive acetabular revisions using impaction bone grafting and a cemented polyethylene acetabular component in 58 patients (13 men and 45 women) after a mean follow-up of 27 years (25 to 30). All patients were prospectively followed. The mean age at revision was 59.2 years (23 to 82). We performed Kaplan-Meier (KM) analysis and also a Competing Risk (CR) analysis because with long-term follow-up, the presence of a competing event (i.e. death) prevents the occurrence of the endpoint of re-revision. A total of 48 patients (52 hips) had died or had been re-revised at final review in March 2011. None of the deaths were related to the surgery. The mean Harris hip score of the ten surviving hips in ten patients was 76 points (45 to 99). The KM survivorship at 25 years for the endpoint 're-revision for any reason' was 58.0% (95% confidence interval (CI) 38 to 73) and for 're-revision for aseptic loosening' 72.1% (95% CI 51 to 85). With the CR analysis we calculated the KM analysis overestimates the failure rate with respectively 74% and 93% for these endpoints. The current study shows that acetabular impaction bone grafting revisions provide good clinical results at over 25 years.

  8. Getting ready for invasions: can background level of risk predict the ability of naïve prey to survive novel predators?

    PubMed Central

    Ferrari, Maud C. O.; Crane, Adam L.; Brown, Grant E.; Chivers, Douglas P.

    2015-01-01

    Factors predicting the outcome of predator invasions on native prey communities are critical to our understanding of invasion ecology. Here, we tested whether background level of risk affected the survival of prey to novel predators, both native and invasive, predicting that high-risk environments would better prepare prey for invasions. We used naïve woodfrog as our prey and exposed them to a high or low risk regime either as embryos (prenatal exposure) or as larvae (recent exposure). Tadpoles were then tested for their survival in the presence of 4 novel predators: two dytiscid beetles, crayfish and trout. Survival was affected by both risk level and predator type. High risk was beneficial to prey exposed to the dytiscids larvae (ambush predators), but detrimental to prey exposed to crayfish or trout (pursuit predators). No effect of ontogeny of risk was found. We further documented that high-risk tadpoles were overall more active than their low-risk counterparts, explaining the patterns found with survival. Our results provide insights into the relationship between risk and resilience to predator invasions. PMID:25655436

  9. Quantifying intrinsic and extrinsic control of single-cell fates in cancer and stem/progenitor cell pedigrees with competing risks analysis

    PubMed Central

    Cornwell, J. A.; Hallett, R. M.; der Mauer, S. Auf; Motazedian, A.; Schroeder, T.; Draper, J. S.; Harvey, R. P.; Nordon, R. E.

    2016-01-01

    The molecular control of cell fate and behaviour is a central theme in biology. Inherent heterogeneity within cell populations requires that control of cell fate is studied at the single-cell level. Time-lapse imaging and single-cell tracking are powerful technologies for acquiring cell lifetime data, allowing quantification of how cell-intrinsic and extrinsic factors control single-cell fates over time. However, cell lifetime data contain complex features. Competing cell fates, censoring, and the possible inter-dependence of competing fates, currently present challenges to modelling cell lifetime data. Thus far such features are largely ignored, resulting in loss of data and introducing a source of bias. Here we show that competing risks and concordance statistics, previously applied to clinical data and the study of genetic influences on life events in twins, respectively, can be used to quantify intrinsic and extrinsic control of single-cell fates. Using these statistics we demonstrate that 1) breast cancer cell fate after chemotherapy is dependent on p53 genotype; 2) granulocyte macrophage progenitors and their differentiated progeny have concordant fates; and 3) cytokines promote self-renewal of cardiac mesenchymal stem cells by symmetric divisions. Therefore, competing risks and concordance statistics provide a robust and unbiased approach for evaluating hypotheses at the single-cell level. PMID:27250534

  10. Natural histroy of trisomy 18 and trisomy 13: I. Growth, physical assessment, medical histories, survival, and recurrence risk

    SciTech Connect

    Baty, B.J.; Blackburn, B.L.; Carey, J.C.

    1994-01-15

    The natural history of trisomy 18 and trisomy 13 was investigated using data derived from parent questionnaires and medical records from 98 families with an index case of trisomy 18 and 32 families with an index case of trisomy 13. Data are presented on pregnancy, delivery, survival, medical complications, immunizations, growth, cause of death, cytogenetics, and recurrence risk. Half of the trisomy 18 babies were delivered by C-section. Fetal distress was a factor in half, and the only reason in a third of C-section deliveries. One minute Apgar scores were significantly lower in C-section and breech deliveries. There were more small-for-gestational-age babies than in the general population, but most of the low-birth-weight newborns were small for gestational age, unlike the general population. Survival in this group of children was better than in other studies due to ascertainment bias. There were more girls than boys at all ages for both conditions, and the sex ratio decreased with time. Growth curves for length, weight, head circumference, and weight vs height are provided. Long-term survival did not appear to be due to mosaicism. There were no adverse reactions attributable to immunizations. At age 1 year there was an average of approximately 2 operations per living child. The authors report the second case of successful major cardiac surgery in a trisomy 18 child. Almost 70% of deaths were attributed to cardiopulmonary arrest. The sibling recurrence risk for trisomy 18 or trisomy 13 was 0.55%. 86 refs., 5 figs., 5 tabs.

  11. Risk-scoring models for individualized prediction of overall survival in low-grade and high-grade endometrial cancer

    PubMed Central

    AlHilli, Mariam M.; Mariani, Andrea; Bakkum-Gamez, Jamie N.; Dowdy, Sean C.; Weaver, Amy L.; Peethambaram, Preema P.; Keeney, Gary L.; Cliby, William A.; Podratz, Karl C.

    2015-01-01

    Objective Overall survival (OS) in endometrial cancer (EC) is dependent on patient-, disease-, and treatment-specific risk factors. Comprehensive risk-scoring models were developed to estimate OS in low-grade and high-grade EC. Methods Patients undergoing primary surgery for EC from 1999 through 2008 were stratified histologically according to the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) as either (i) low grade: grades 1 and 2 endometrioid EC or (ii) high grade: grade 3, including non-endometrioid EC. Associations between patient-, pathological-, and treatment-specific risk factors and OS starting on postoperative day 30 were assessed using multivariable Cox regression models. Factors independently associated with OS were used to construct nomograms and risk-scoring models. Results Eligible patients (N= 1281) included 925 low-grade and 356 high-grade patients; estimated 5-year OSs were 87.0% and 51.5%, respectively. Among patients alive at last follow-up, median follow-up was 5.0 (low grade) and 4.6 years (high grade), respectively. In low-grade patients, independent factors predictive of compromised OS included age, cardiovascular disease, pulmonary dysfunction, stage, tumor diameter, pelvic lymph node status, and grade 2 or higher 30-day postoperative complications. Among high-grade patients, age, American Society of Anesthesiologists score, stage, lymphovascular space invasion, adjuvant therapy, para-aortic nodal status, and cervical stromal invasion were independent predictors of compromised OS. The two risk-scoring models/nomograms had excellent calibration and discrimination (unbiased c-indices = 0.803 and 0.759). Conclusion Patients with low-grade and high-grade EC can be counseled regarding their predicted OS using the proposed risk-scoring models. This may facilitate institution of personalized treatment algorithms, surveillance strategies, and lifestyle interventions. PMID:24690476

  12. AAOHN Competencies.

    PubMed

    2015-11-01

    The AAOHN Competency document is one of the core documents that define occupational health nursing practice. This article provides a description of the process used to update the competencies, as well as a description of the new competencies.

  13. Cluster B personality symptoms in persons at genetic risk for schizophrenia are associated with social competence and activation of the right temporo-parietal junction during emotion processing.

    PubMed

    Goldschmidt, Micaela Giuliana; Villarreal, Mirta Fabiana; de Achával, Delfina; Drucaroff, Lucas Javier; Costanzo, Elsa Yolanda; Castro, Mariana Nair; Pahissa, Jaime; Camprodon, Joan; Nemeroff, Charles; Guinjoan, Salvador Martín

    2014-01-30

    Personality disorders are common in nonpsychotic siblings of patients with schizophrenia, and some personality traits in this group may be associated with an increased risk for full-blown psychosis. We sought to establish if faulty right-hemisphere activation induced by social cognitive tasks, as previously described in patients with schizophrenia, is associated with specific personality symptoms in their unaffected siblings. We observed that cluster B personality symptoms in this group were inversely related to activation in the right temporo parietal junction (rTPJ, a structure critical in social cognitive processing) in response to a basic emotion processing task and also to social competence, whereas in contrast to our initial hypothesis, cluster A traits were not associated with right hemisphere activation during emotion processing or with social competence. These findings suggest the existence of clinical traits in at-risk individuals which share a common neurobiological substrate with schizophrenia, in regards to social performance.

  14. Risk adjusting survival outcomes of hospitals that treat cancer patients without information on cancer stage

    PubMed Central

    Pfister, David G.; Rubin, David M.; Elkin, Elena B.; Neill, Ushma S.; Duck, Elaine; Radzyner, Mark; Bach, Peter B.

    2016-01-01

    Importance Instituting widespread measurement of outcomes for cancer hospitals using administrative data is difficult due to the lack of cancer specific information such as disease stage. Objective To evaluate the performance of hospitals that treat cancer patients using Medicare data for outcome ascertainment and risk adjustment, and to assess whether hospital rankings based on these measures are influenced by the addition of cancer-specific information. Design Risk adjusted cumulative mortality of patients with cancer captured in Medicare claims from 2005–2009 nationally were assessed at the hospital level. Similar analyses were conducted in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Result (SEER)-Medicare data for the subset of the US covered by the SEER program to determine whether the exclusion of cancer specific information (only available in cancer registries) from risk adjustment altered measured hospital performance. Setting Administrative claims data and SEER cancer registry data Participants Sample of 729,279 fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries treated for cancer in 2006 at hospitals treating 10+ patients with each of the following cancers, according to Medicare claims: lung, prostate, breast, colon. An additional sample of 18,677 similar patients in SEER-Medicare administrative data. Main Outcomes and Measures Risk-adjusted mortality overall and by cancer type, stratified by type of hospital; measures of correlation and agreement between hospital-level outcomes risk adjusted using Medicare data alone and Medicare data with SEER data. Results There were large outcome differences between different types of hospitals that treat Medicare patients with cancer. At one year, cumulative mortality for Medicare-prospective-payment-system exempt hospitals was 10% lower than at community hospitals (18% versus 28%) across all cancers, the pattern persisted through five years of follow-up and within specific cancer types. Performance ranking of hospitals was

  15. Genetic variants in EBV reactivation-related genes and the risk and survival of breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Zheng-Zheng; Tang, Lu-Ying; Lin, Ying; Su, Feng-Xi; Xie, Xiao-Ming; Su, Xue-Fen; Ren, Ze-Fang

    2016-06-01

    Tumor susceptibility gene 101 (TSG101) and activating transcription factor 2 (ATF2) have been suggested to involve in the reactivation of EBV which has implications in the development and progression of breast cancer. Therefore, the polymorphisms of TSG101 and ATF2 may associate with breast cancer risk and prognosis. A case-control study with 1551 breast cancer cases and 1605 age-matched controls were conducted in Guangzhou, China. We have also successfully followed up 1168 cases until December 31, 2014. The variant allele of TSG101 rs2292179 was associated with a non-significant reduced risk of breast cancer, particularly among women with BMI < 24 (kg/m(2)) (P for interaction <0.05). For ATF2 rs3845744, the variant allele was also associated with a significantly reduced breast cancer risk [odds ratio (OR) (95 % confidence interval (CI)) 0.86 (0.74∼1.00)], and the association occurred among only postmenopausal women [OR (95 % CI) 0.69 (0.54∼0.88)] (P for interaction <0.05). Breast cancer risk was further reduced with the increasing numbers of the variant G alleles of the two polymorphisms (P for trend <0.05). We did not find an overall association of the two loci with breast cancer prognosis, while the hazard ratios of the two loci (AG/GG vs. AA) were significantly higher among postmenopausal women than premenopausal women (P = 0.046, 0.016 for TSG101 rs2292179 and ATF2 rs3845744, respectively). In summary, the variant alleles of TSG101 rs2292179 and ATF2 rs3845744 were associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer, particularly for subjects with BMI <24 (kg/m(2)) and postmenopausal women, respectively. The two SNPs and menopausal status may have a significant interaction on breast cancer progression.

  16. Risks, benefits and survival strategies-views from female sex workers in Savannakhet, Laos

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Female sex workers (FSWs) are vulnerable to sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and encounter socio-economic and health problems, including STIs/HIV, unintended pregnancy and complications from unsafe abortion, stigma, violence, and drug addiction. Reducing risks associated with sex work requires an understanding of the social and cultural context in which sex workers live and work. This study aimed to explore the working environment and perceived risks among FSWs in Savannakhet province in Laos. Methods Five focus group discussions (FGDs) and seven interviews were conducted with FSWs in Kaysone Phomvihan district in Laos. Latent content analysis was used to analyze the transcribed text. Results The results revealed that the FSWs were aware of risks but they also talked about benefits related to their work. The risks were grouped into six categories: STIs/HIV, unintended pregnancy, stigma, violence, being cheated, and social and economic insecurity. The reported benefits were financial security, fulfilling social obligations, and sexual pleasure. The FSWs reported using a number of strategies to reduce risks and increase benefits. Conclusions The desire to be self-sufficient and earn as much money as possible put the FSWs in disadvantaged and vulnerable situations. Fear of financial insecurity, obligations to support one’s family and the need to secure the future influenced FSWs’ decisions to have safe or unsafe sex. The FSWs were, however, not only victims. They also had some control over their lives and working environment, with most viewing their work as an easy and good way of earning money. PMID:23164407

  17. Genetic variation in SIPA1 in relation to breast cancer risk and survival after breast cancer diagnosis.

    PubMed

    Gaudet, Mia M; Hunter, Kent; Pharoah, Paul; Dunning, Alison M; Driver, Kristy; Lissowska, Jolanta; Sherman, Mark; Peplonska, Beata; Brinton, Louise A; Chanock, Stephen; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat

    2009-04-01

    Genetic variation in SIPA1, signal-induced proliferation-associated gene 1, has been proposed to be associated with aggressive breast tumor characteristics related to metastasis and worse prognosis in humans and rodents. To test this hypothesis, we genotyped 3 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) located at -3092 (AT, rs3741378), and exon 14 + 14 (C>T, rs746429), and examined them in relation to breast cancer risk and overall survival, stratified by tumor characteristics in 2 independent case-control studies conducted in Poland (1,995 cases, 2,296 controls) and in Britain (2,142 cases, 2,257 controls). Vital status (n = 396 deaths) was available for 911 Polish and 1,919 British breast cancer cases with an average follow-up time of 5.5 years. Overall, we found no significant associations between genetic variants of SIPA1 SNPs and breast cancer risk (per allele odds ratios, 95% confidence intervals (CI): rs931127-0.99, 0.93-1.06; rs3741378-1.03, 0.94-1.13; and, rs74642-0.98, 0.92-1.04). In both studies, SIPA1 polymorphisms were not related to overall mortality (per allele hazard ratios, 95% CI: 1.02, 0.88-1.17; 0.90, 0.72-1.11; 1.04, 0.90-1.21, respectively). Our results do not support a relationship between SIPA1 polymorphisms and breast cancer risk or subsequent survival.

  18. Racial and Ethnic Disparities in the Impact of Obesity on Breast Cancer Risk and Survival: A Global Perspective123

    PubMed Central

    Bandera, Elisa V; Maskarinec, Gertraud; Romieu, Isabelle; John, Esther M

    2015-01-01

    Obesity is a global concern, affecting both developed and developing countries. Although there are large variations in obesity and breast cancer rates worldwide and across racial/ethnic groups, most studies evaluating the impact of obesity on breast cancer risk and survival have been conducted in non-Hispanic white women in the United States or Europe. Given the known racial/ethnic differences in tumor hormone receptor subtype distribution, obesity prevalence, and risk factor profiles, we reviewed published data for women of African, Hispanic, and Asian ancestry in the United States and their countries of origin. Although the data are limited, current evidence suggests a stronger adverse effect of obesity on breast cancer risk and survival in women of Asian ancestry. For African Americans and Hispanics, the strength of the associations appears to be more comparable to that of non-Hispanic whites, particularly when accounting for subtype and menopausal status. Central obesity seems to have a stronger impact in African-American women than general adiposity as measured by body mass index. International data from countries undergoing economic transition offer a unique opportunity to evaluate the impact of rapid weight gain on breast cancer. Such studies should take into account genetic ancestry, which may help elucidate differences in associations between ethnically admixed populations. Overall, additional large studies that use a variety of adiposity measures are needed, because the current evidence is based on few studies, most with limited statistical power. Future investigations of obesity biomarkers will be useful to understand possible racial/ethnic biological differences underlying the complex association between obesity and breast cancer development and progression. PMID:26567202

  19. Education methods for maintaining nursing competency in low-volume, high-risk procedures in the rural setting: bridging the theory to practice gap.

    PubMed

    Banks, Cassie M; Gilmartin, Heather; Fink, Regina M

    2010-01-01

    Nurses practicing in the rural setting have faced a unique challenge in maintaining competency in low-volume, high-risk procedures. This study assessed the effectiveness of a focused, multifaceted educational intervention on the retention of nursing knowledge related to central venous access devices care and maintenance. A pretest-posttest intervention study design was used at a 58-bed rural healthcare facility in a Western state. This study demonstrates a statistically significant increase in functional nursing knowledge in the postintervention period.

  20. First incident hospitalisation for Australian women aged 70 and beyond: A 10 year examination using competing risks.

    PubMed

    Harris, Melissa L; Dolja-Gore, Xenia; Kendig, Hal; Byles, Julie E

    2016-01-01

    There are increasing concerns regarding high hospital use among older adults and the capacity to manage the economic impact of the ageing population trend on healthcare systems. First hospitalisation in old age may act as a catalyst for ongoing intensification of health problems and acute care use. This study examined factors associated with first incident hospitalisation in women aged over 70, accounting for the health inequalities associated with geographic location. Survey data from 3780 women from the 1921 to 1926 cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health were matched with the Admitted Patients Data Collection and National Death Index. Days to first event (hospitalisation or death) were modelled using competing risks methods. A total of 3065 (80.3%) women had at least one hospital admission. More than half of the top 15 reasons for first hospitalisation were related to cardiovascular disease, with atrial fibrillation the most common. Proportional subdistribution hazards models showed that first hospital admission was driven by enabling and need factors including asthma/bronchitis diagnosis (HR=1.16; p=0.047), private health insurance (HR=1.16; p=0.004) more than two prescribed medications in previous month (HR=1.31; p=0.001), more than four general practitioner visits in previous year (HR=1.50; p=0.034), lower physical functioning (HR=0.99; p<0.001) and living in an inner regional area (HR=1.17; p=0.003). First overnight hospitalisation was primarily related with potentially preventable and treatable chronic diseases. Primary and secondary strategies aimed at chronic disease generally, and better chronic disease management particularly for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, may play a vital role in disease prevention or delay in readmissions among this population.

  1. Non-parametric estimation of relative risk in survival and associated tests.

    PubMed

    Wakounig, Samo; Heinze, Georg; Schemper, Michael

    2015-12-01

    We extend the Tarone and Ware scheme of weighted log-rank tests to cover the associated weighted Mantel-Haenszel estimators of relative risk. Weighting functions previously employed are critically reviewed. The notion of an average hazard ratio is defined and its connection to the effect size measure P(Y > X) is emphasized. The connection makes estimation of P(Y > X) possible also under censoring. Two members of the extended Tarone-Ware scheme accomplish the estimation of intuitively interpretable average hazard ratios, also under censoring and time-varying relative risk which is achieved by an inverse probability of censoring weighting. The empirical properties of the members of the extended Tarone-Ware scheme are demonstrated by a Monte Carlo study. The differential role of the weighting functions considered is illustrated by a comparative analysis of four real data sets.

  2. Families, Risk, and Competence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lewis, Michael, Ed.; Feiring, Candice, Ed.

    The problems of studying families arise from the difficulty in studying systems in which there are multiple elements interacting with each other and with the child. This book attests to the growing sophistication of the conceptualization and measurement techniques for understanding family processes. Chapters in the first part of the book,…

  3. HOME for STEPS. Homemaking Opportunity Modules for Education for Use with Surviving Today's Experiences and Problems Successfully. Compiled from Competency Based Modules Based on V-TECS Catalogs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marshall Univ., Huntington, WV. Dept. of Home Economics.

    Designed to accompany Surviving Today's Experiences and Problems Successfully (STEPS) for 9th and 10th grade home economics courses, this volume consists of individualized learning packages dealing with four areas: management/family economics, human development, housing, and foods/nutrition. The book is divided into four parts. First, the…

  4. Drug use, street survival, and risk behaviors among street children in Lahore, Pakistan.

    PubMed

    Sherman, Susan S; Plitt, Sabrina; ul Hassan, Salman; Cheng, Yingkai; Zafar, S Tariq

    2005-09-01

    There are an estimated 3,500-5,000 street children living on the streets of Lahore, Pakistan. A disproportionate number of these children use drugs and engage in survival sex as coping mechanisms. Since August, 2003, Project Smile provides mobile social and health services to street children 6 days a week in selected neighborhoods. This study utilizes data from Project Smile registration data on the program's initial clients (n=347). The study aimed to compare current, former, and nondrug users regarding their reasons for living on the streets, survival and coping mechanisms, and reasons for drug initiation. Of the total sample, 17.0% reported never having used drugs, 15.9% reported being former drug users, and 67.1% reported having used drugs in the month before registration. Participants were 96% boys with a median age of 13 years. The median length of living on the streets was 18 months, and 52.7% had ever been arrested by the police. Odd jobs, begging, and pickpocketing were the primary sources of reported income. Forty-eight percent reported ever having engaging in transactional sex, and 40% reported cutting themselves, primarily to cope with their anger. Variables that were significantly correlated with being a current drug user (vs. never) in the presence of other variables included: being 13 years or older [adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=3.0; 95% confidence interval (95% CI)=1.3-7.0]; reporting a daily income > or =Rs 60 (AOR=2.7; 95% CI=1.1-6.4); having a history of arrest (AOR=3.3; 95% CI=1.3-8.3); wanting to return home (AOR=0.3; 95% CI=0.1-0.8); feeling hatred from the public (AOR=5.1; 95% CI=2.0-12.9); ever exchanging sex for food, shelter, drugs, or money (AOR=3.4; 95% CI=1.3-8.9); and ever having cut themselves (AOR=15.4; 95% CI=3.4-70.7). Drug use is a major coping mechanism among street children in Lahore and is associated with many behaviors. Targeted programs are needed to meet their special needs.

  5. A functional variant in miR-155 regulation region contributes to lung cancer risk and survival

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Cheng; Qin, Na; Shen, Wei; Gu, Yayun; Yan, Caiwang; Zhang, Kai; Dai, Ningbin; Zhu, Meng; Wu, Shuangshuang; Wang, Hui; Dai, Juncheng; Jin, Guangfu; Shen, Hongbing; Hu, Zhibin

    2015-01-01

    Emerging evidence suggested that upregulation of miR-155 could serve as a promising marker for the diagnosis and prognosis of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In the present study, we genotyped rs767649 (A > T) located in miR-155 regulation region in 1341 cases and 1982 controls, and analyzed the associations of rs767649 with NSCLC risk and survival. Consequently, rs767649 exhibited the significant associations with the risk (adjusted OR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.01–1.24, P = 0.031) and prognosis of NSCLC (adjusted HR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.03–1.32, P = 0.014). Meanwhile, rs767649 specifically interacted with radio-chemotherapy (Pint = 0.013), and patients with both the rs767649-TT genotype and radio-chemotherapy had the highest hazard ratio (adjusted HR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.26–2.16, P < 0.001). Furthermore, using functional assays and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) Lung Adenocarcinoma (LUAD) dataset, we found that rs767649 variant allele could increase the transcriptional activity of miR-155, which in turn facilitated tumor growth and metastasis by inhibiting HBP1, TJP1, SMAD5 and PRKAR1A expression. Our findings suggested that rs767649 A > T might contribute to the increased risk and poor prognosis of NSCLC, highlighting the importance of rs767649 in the prevention and therapy of NSCLC. PMID:26543233

  6. Social and structural violence and power relations in mitigating HIV risk of drug-using women in survival sex work.

    PubMed

    Shannon, Kate; Kerr, Thomas; Allinott, Shari; Chettiar, Jill; Shoveller, Jean; Tyndall, Mark W

    2008-02-01

    High rates of violence among street-level sex workers have been described across the globe, while in cities across Canada the disappearance and victimization of drug-using women in survival sex work is ongoing. Given the pervasive levels of violence faced by sex workers over the last decades, and extensive harm reduction and HIV prevention efforts operating in Vancouver, Canada, this research aimed to explore the role of social and structural violence and power relations in shaping the HIV risk environment and prevention practices of women in survival sex work. Through a participatory-action research project, a series of focus group discussions were conceptualized and co-facilitated by sex workers, community and research partners with a total of 46 women in early 2006. Based on thematic, content and theoretical analysis, the following key factors were seen to both directly and indirectly mediate women's agency and access to resources, and ability to practice HIV prevention and harm reduction: at the micro-level, boyfriends as pimps and the 'everyday violence' of bad dates; at the meso-level, a lack of safe places to take dates, and adverse impacts of local policing; and at the macro-level, dopesickness and the need to sell sex for drugs. Analysis of the narratives and daily lived experiences of women sex workers highlight the urgent need for a renewed HIV prevention strategy that moves beyond a solely individual-level focus to structural and environmental interventions, including legal reforms, that facilitate 'enabling environments' for HIV prevention.

  7. Prediagnostic serum inflammatory markers in relation to breast cancer risk, severity at diagnosis and survival in breast cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Wulaningsih, Wahyu; Holmberg, Lars; Garmo, Hans; Malmstrom, Håkan; Lambe, Mats; Hammar, Niklas; Walldius, Göran; Jungner, Ingmar; Van Hemelrijck, Mieke

    2015-10-01

    Inflammation has been linked to cancer but its role in breast cancer is unclear. We investigated common serum markers of inflammation: C-reactive protein (CRP), albumin, haptoglobin and white blood cells (WBC) in relation to breast cancer incidence, severity and survival. A total of 155179 women aged 20 and older without any history of cancer were selected from a large Swedish cohort. Hazard ratios (HRs) for breast cancer were estimated with Cox regression, adjusting for potential confounders. Ordered and binomial logistic regression models were used to assess the associations of serum inflammatory markers with breast cancer severity and oestrogen receptor (ER) positivity at diagnosis, on the other. Cumulative incidence functions by levels of inflammatory markers were assessed for early death from breast cancer and all causes. During a mean follow-up of 18.3 years, 6606 women were diagnosed with breast cancer, of whom 1474 died. A positive association with incident breast cancer was seen for haptoglobin ≥ 1.4g/l [HR 1.09; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00-1.18] compared to lower levels. No association was observed between inflammatory markers and breast cancer severity or ER positivity. Higher haptoglobin was linked to risk of early death from breast cancer (HR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.02-1.59), whereas higher risk of early death from all causes was additionally found with CRP ≥ 10mg/l (HR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.04-1.36) and WBC ≥ 10×10(9)/l (HR: 1.57, 1.14-2.16). Our findings indicate that prediagnostic serum inflammatory markers were weakly linked to incident breast cancer but corresponded to worse survival after diagnosis.

  8. A Candidate-Pathway Approach to Identify Gene-Environment Interactions: Analyses of Colon Cancer Risk and Survival

    PubMed Central

    Sharafeldin, Noha; Slattery, Martha L.; Liu, Qi; Franco-Villalobos, Conrado; Caan, Bette J.; Potter, John D.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Genetic association studies have traditionally focused on associations between individual single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and disease. Standard analysis ignores interactions between multiple SNPs and environmental exposures explaining a small portion of disease heritability: the often-cited issue of “missing heritability.” Methods: We present a novel three-step analytic framework for modeling gene-environment interactions (GEIs) between an angiogenesis candidate-gene pathway and three lifestyle exposures (dietary protein, smoking, and alcohol consumption) on colon cancer risk and survival. Logic regression was used to summarize the gene-pathway effects, and GEIs were modeled using logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models. We analyzed data from 1541 colon cancer case patients and 1934 control subjects in the Diet, Activity and Lifestyle as a Risk Factor for Colon Cancer Study. Results: We identified five statistically significant GEIs for colon cancer risk. For risk interaction, odds ratios (ORINT) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were FLT1(rs678714) and BMP4(rs17563) and smoking (ORINT = 1.64, 95% CI = 1.11 to 2.41 and ORINT = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.10 to 2.32, respectively); FLT1(rs2387632 OR rs9513070) and protein intake (ORINT = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.03 to 2.77); KDR(rs6838752) and TLR2(rs3804099) and alcohol (ORINT = 1.53, 95% CI = 1.10 to 2.13 and ORINT = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.05 to 2.38, respectively). Three GEIs between TNF, BMP1, and BMPR2 genes and the three exposures were statistically significant at the 5% level in relation to colon cancer survival but not after multiple-testing adjustment. Conclusions: Adopting a comprehensive biologically informed candidate-pathway approach identified GEI effects on colon cancer. Findings may have important implications for public health and personalized medicine targeting prevention and therapeutic strategies. Findings from this study need to be validated in other studies. PMID:26072521

  9. Competency Index. [Health Technology Cluster.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ohio State Univ., Columbus. Center on Education and Training for Employment.

    This competency index lists the competencies included in the 62 units of the Tech Prep Competency Profiles within the Health Technologies Cluster. The unit topics are as follows: employability skills; professionalism; teamwork; computer literacy; documentation; infection control and risk management; medical terminology; anatomy, physiology, and…

  10. Women who sell sex in a Ugandan trading town: life histories, survival strategies and risk.

    PubMed

    Gysels, Marjolein; Pool, Robert; Nnalusiba, Betty

    2002-01-01

    Little is known about the background of commercial sex workers in Africa. This study investigated how women in a trading town on the trans-Africa highway in southwest Uganda become involved in commercial sex work, which factors contribute to their economic success or lack of success, and what effect life trajectories and economic success have on negotiating power and risk behaviour. Over the course of two years detailed life histories of 34 women were collected through recording open, in-depth interviews, the collection of sexual and income and expenditure diaries, visits to the women's native villages, and participant observation. The women share similar disadvantaged backgrounds and this has played a role in their move into commercial sex. They have divergent experiences, however, in their utilisation of opportunities and in the level of success they achieve. They have developed different life styles and a variety of ways of dealing with sexual relationships. Three groups of women were identified: (1) women who work in the back-street bars, have no capital of their own and are almost entirely dependent on selling sex for their livelihood; (2) waitresses in the bars along the main road who engage in a more institutionalised kind of commercial sex, often mediated by middlemen and (3) the more successful entrepreneurs who earn money from their own bars as well as from commercial sex. The three groups had different risk profiles. Due partly to their financial independence from men, women in the latter group have taken control of sexual relationships and can negotiate good sexual deals for themselves, both financially and in terms of safe sex. The poorer women were more vulnerable and less able to negotiate safer sex. A disadvantaged background and restricted access to economic resources are the major reasons for women gravitating to commercial sex work. Various aspects of personality play a role in utilising income from commercial sex to set up an economic basis that

  11. Competent psychopharmacology.

    PubMed

    Gardner, David M

    2014-08-01

    There is little doubt that undergraduate and post-graduate training of physicians, pharmacists, and nurses is insufficient to prepare them to use psychotropics safely and effectively, especially in the context of their expanded off-label uses. Therefore, the development of competencies in psychotropic prescribing needs to be approached as a long-term, practice-based learning commitment. Proposed are the abilities and knowledge components necessary for safe and effective use of psychotropics. Typical challenges in prescribing for chronic and recurrent illnesses include highly variable responses and tolerability, drug interactions, and adverse effects that can be serious, irreversible, and even fatal. Prescribing psychotropics is further complicated by negative public and professional reports and growing patient concerns about the quality of care, and questions about the efficacy, safety, and addictive risks of psychotropics. Increased efforts are needed to enhance clinical training and knowledge in psychopharmacology among trainees and practising clinicians, with more comprehensive and sustained attention to the assessment of individual patients, and greater reliance on patient education and collaboration. Improved competence in psychotropic prescribing should lead to more informed, thoughtful, and better-targeted applications as one component of more comprehensive clinical care.

  12. [Society of Nephrology, Computer Technology Commission. Dialysis computer program. VI. - Survival and risk factors].

    PubMed

    Degoulet, P; Reach, I; Rozenbaum, W; Aime, F; Devries, C; Berger, C; Rojas, P; Jacobs, C; Legrain, M

    1979-12-01

    greater than or equal to 95 mmHg. 9) Viral hepatitis remain the most prominent infectious problem with 30 per cent of patients being chronic Hbs antigen carriers. 10) Annual death rate calculated in the 2,518 patients dialyzed between 1972 and 1978 (78/1000) is 12 times superior to the death rate of the French population, adjusted for sex and age to the dialysis population. 43,1 per cent of deaths are of cardiovascular origin. Risk factors for overall mortality are age, sex (male), existence of a vascular or diabetic nephropathy, twice weekly dialysis strategy, elevation of systolic or diastolic blood pressure during the course of dialysis treatment, hypocholesterolemia and to a lesser extent hypotriglyceridemia. On the contrary, hypercholesterolemia, hypertriglyceridemia and hyperuricemia do not appear as risk factors for overall mortality or cardiovascular mortality. These results plead for a perfect control of hypertension and to the extension of thrice weekly dialysis for the whole population of patients treated by maintenance hemodialysis.

  13. Competing risks and the development of adaptive management plans for water resources: Field reconnaissance investigation of risks to fishes and other aquatic biota exposed to endocrine disrupting chemicals (edcs) in lake mead, Nevada USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Linder, G.; Little, E.E.

    2009-01-01

    The analysis and characterization of competing risks for water resources rely on a wide spectrum of tools to evaluate hazards and risks associated with their management. For example, waters of the lower Colorado River stored in reservoirs such as Lake Mead present a wide range of competing risks related to water quantity and water quality. These risks are often interdependent and complicated by competing uses of source waters for sustaining biological resources and for supporting a range of agricultural, municipal, recreational, and industrial uses. USGS is currently conducting a series of interdisciplinary case-studies on water quality of Lake Mead and its source waters. In this case-study we examine selected constituents potentially entering the Lake Mead system, particularly endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). Worldwide, a number of environmental EDCs have been identified that affect reproduction, development, and adaptive behaviors in a wide range of organisms. Many EDCs are minimally affected by current treatment technologies and occur in treated sewage effluents. Several EDCs have been detected in Lake Mead, and several substances have been identified that are of concern because of potential impacts to the aquatic biota, including the sport fishery of Lake Mead and endangered razorback suckers (Xyrauchen texanus) that occur in the Colorado River system. For example, altered biomarkers relevant to reproduction and thyroid function in fishes have been observed and may be predictive of impaired metabolism and development. Few studies, however, have addressed whether such EDC-induced responses observed in the field have an ecologically significant effect on the reproductive success of fishes. To identify potential linkages between EDCs and species of management concern, the risk analysis and characterization in this reconnaissance study focused on effects (and attendant uncertainties) that might be expressed by exposed populations. In addition, risk reduction

  14. Nocturnal loss of body reserves reveals high survival risk for subordinate great tits wintering at extremely low ambient temperatures.

    PubMed

    Krams, Indrikis; Cīrule, Dina; Vrublevska, Jolanta; Nord, Andreas; Rantala, Markus J; Krama, Tatjana

    2013-06-01

    Winter acclimatization in birds is a complex of several strategies based on metabolic adjustment accompanied by long-term management of resources such as fattening. However, wintering birds often maintain fat reserves below their physiological capacity, suggesting a cost involved with excessive levels of reserves. We studied body reserves of roosting great tits in relation to their dominance status under two contrasting temperature regimes to see whether individuals are capable of optimizing their survival strategies under extreme environmental conditions. We predicted less pronounced loss of body mass and body condition and lower rates of overnight mortality in dominant great tits at both mild and extremely low ambient temperatures, when ambient temperature dropped down to -43 °C. The results showed that dominant great tits consistently maintained lower reserve levels than subordinates regardless of ambient temperature. However, dominants responded to the rising risk of starvation under low temperatures by increasing their body reserves, whereas subdominant birds decreased reserve levels in harsh conditions. Yet, their losses of body mass and body reserves were always lower than in subordinate birds. None of the dominant great tits were found dead, while five young females and one adult female were found dead in nest boxes during cold spells when ambient temperatures dropped down to -43 °C. The dead great tits lost up to 23.83 % of their evening body mass during cold nights while surviving individuals lost on average 12.78 % of their evening body mass. Our results show that fattening strategies of great tits reflect an adaptive role of winter fattening which is sensitive to changes in ambient temperatures and differs among individuals of different social ranks.

  15. Typical Classroom Experiences in First Grade: The Role of Classroom Climate and Functional Risk in the Development of Social Competencies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilson, H. Kent; Pianta, Robert C.; Stuhlman, Megan

    2007-01-01

    In this study we examined the relation between children's social competence and their first-grade classroom environment. Drawing from data from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development, we used cluster analysis to identify 4 types of typical classrooms based on observed classroom emotional and instructional supports. The 4 types…

  16. Sex Offender Situational Competency Test (SOSCT) Pretreatment and Posttreatment Effects for Inpatient Sex Offenders in Hypothetical High-Risk Situations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reddon, John R.; Takacs, Shelly; Hogan, Stephen

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to evaluate relapse prevention skill acquisition within the context of a comprehensive treatment program involving group psychotherapy, relapse prevention programming, and other essential psychoeducational components. The Sex Offender Situational Competency Test (SOSCT) was administered pretreatment and posttreatment…

  17. Linking the Prevention of Problem Behaviors and Positive Youth Development: Core Competencies for Positive Youth Development and Risk Prevention

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Guerra, Nancy G.; Bradshaw, Catherine P.

    2008-01-01

    In this chapter, we present a brief review of the developmental literature linking healthy adjustment to five core competencies: (1) positive sense of self, (2) self-control, (3) decision-making skills, (4) a moral system of belief, and (5) prosocial connectedness. A central premise of this chapter and the rest of the volume is that promoting…

  18. Estimating the personal cure rate of cancer patients using population-based grouped cancer survival data.

    PubMed

    Binbing Yu; Tiwari, Ram C; Feuer, Eric J

    2011-06-01

    Cancer patients are subject to multiple competing risks of death and may die from causes other than the cancer diagnosed. The probability of not dying from the cancer diagnosed, which is one of the patients' main concerns, is sometimes called the 'personal cure' rate. Two approaches of modelling competing-risk survival data, namely the cause-specific hazards approach and the mixture model approach, have been used to model competing-risk survival data. In this article, we first show the connection and differences between crude cause-specific survival in the presence of other causes and net survival in the absence of other causes. The mixture survival model is extended to population-based grouped survival data to estimate the personal cure rate. Using the colorectal cancer survival data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Programme, we estimate the probabilities of dying from colorectal cancer, heart disease, and other causes by age at diagnosis, race and American Joint Committee on Cancer stage.

  19. Competing Uses of Underground Systems Related to Energy Supply: Applying Single- and Multiphase Simulations for Site Characterization and Risk-Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kissinger, A.; Walter, L.; Darcis, M.; Flemisch, B.; Class, H.

    2012-04-01

    Global climate change, shortage of resources and the resulting turn towards renewable sources of energy lead to a growing demand for the utilization of subsurface systems. Among these competing uses are Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), geothermal energy, nuclear waste disposal, "renewable" methane or hydrogen storage as well as the ongoing production of fossil resources like oil, gas, and coal. Besides competing among themselves, these technologies may also create conflicts with essential public interests like water supply. For example, the injection of CO2 into the underground causes an increase in pressure reaching far beyond the actual radius of influence of the CO2 plume, potentially leading to large amounts of displaced salt water. Finding suitable sites is a demanding task for several reasons. Natural systems as opposed to technical systems are always characterized by heterogeneity. Therefore, parameter uncertainty impedes reliable predictions towards capacity and safety of a site. State of the art numerical simulations combined with stochastic approaches need to be used to obtain a more reliable assessment of the involved risks and the radii of influence of the different processes. These simulations may include the modeling of single- and multiphase non-isothermal flow, geo-chemical and geo-mechanical processes in order to describe all relevant physical processes adequately. Stochastic approaches have the aim to estimate a bandwidth of the key output parameters based on uncertain input parameters. Risks for these different underground uses can then be made comparable with each other. Along with the importance and the urgency of the competing processes this may lead to a more profound basis for a decision. Communicating risks to stake holders and a concerned public is crucial for the success of finding a suitable site for CCS (or other subsurface utilization). We present and discuss first steps towards an approach for addressing the issue of competitive

  20. DNA repair genes XPC, XPD, XRCC1, and XRCC3 are associated with risk and survival of squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck.

    PubMed

    Farnebo, Lovisa; Stjernström, Annika; Fredrikson, Mats; Ansell, Anna; Garvin, Stina; Thunell, Lena K

    2015-07-01

    Head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) are a heterogenous group of tumors with a high rate of early recurrences, second primary tumors, and mortality. Despite advances in diagnosis and treatment over the past decades, the overall 5-year survival rate remains around 50%. Since the head-and neck-region is continuously exposed to potentially DNA-damaging exogenous and endogenous factors, it is reasonable to expect that the DNA repair genes play a part in the development, progression, and outcome of HNSCC. The aim of this study was to investigate the SNPs XPC A499V, XPD K751Q, XRCC1 R399Q, and XRCC3 T241M as potential risk factors and indicators of survival among Caucasian patients. One-hundred-sixty-nine patients as well as 344 healthy controls were included and genotyped with PCR-RFLP. We showed that XPC A499V was associated with increased risk of HNSCC, especially laryngeal carcinoma. Among women, XPD K751Q was associated with increased risk of oral SCC. Furthermore, XPD homozygous mutant individuals had the shortest survival time, a survival time that increased however after full dose radiotherapy. Wild-type individuals of XRCC3 T241M demonstrated an earlier age of onset. HPV-positive never smokers had lower frequencies of p53 mutation. Among HNSCC patients, HPV-positivity was significantly associated with XRCC1 R399Q homozygous mutant genotype. Moreover, combinations of putative risk alleles seemed to act synergistically, increasing the risk of HNSCC. In conclusion, our results suggest that SNPs of the DNA repair genes XPC, XPD, XRCC1, and XRCC3 may affect risk and survival of HNSCC.

  1. Brachytherapy Improves Biochemical Failure–Free Survival in Low- and Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer Compared With Conventionally Fractionated External Beam Radiation Therapy: A Propensity Score Matched Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Graham D.; Pickles, Tom; Crook, Juanita; Martin, Andre-Guy; Vigneault, Eric; Cury, Fabio L.; Morris, Jim; Catton, Charles; Lukka, Himu; Warner, Andrew; Yang, Ying; Rodrigues, George

    2015-03-01

    Purpose: To compare, in a retrospective study, biochemical failure-free survival (bFFS) and overall survival (OS) in low-risk and intermediate-risk prostate cancer patients who received brachytherapy (BT) (either low-dose-rate brachytherapy [LDR-BT] or high-dose-rate brachytherapy with external beam radiation therapy [HDR-BT+EBRT]) versus external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) alone. Methods and Materials: Patient data were obtained from the ProCaRS database, which contains 7974 prostate cancer patients treated with primary radiation therapy at four Canadian cancer institutions from 1994 to 2010. Propensity score matching was used to obtain the following 3 matched cohorts with balanced baseline prognostic factors: (1) low-risk LDR-BT versus EBRT; (2) intermediate-risk LDR-BT versus EBRT; and (3) intermediate-risk HDR-BT+EBRT versus EBRT. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed to compare differences in bFFS (primary endpoint) and OS in the 3 matched groups. Results: Propensity score matching created acceptable balance in the baseline prognostic factors in all matches. Final matches included 2 1:1 matches in the intermediate-risk cohorts, LDR-BT versus EBRT (total n=254) and HDR-BT+EBRT versus EBRT (total n=388), and one 4:1 match in the low-risk cohort (LDR-BT:EBRT, total n=400). Median follow-up ranged from 2.7 to 7.3 years for the 3 matched cohorts. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that all BT treatment options were associated with statistically significant improvements in bFFS when compared with EBRT in all cohorts (intermediate-risk EBRT vs LDR-BT hazard ratio [HR] 4.58, P=.001; intermediate-risk EBRT vs HDR-BT+EBRT HR 2.08, P=.007; low-risk EBRT vs LDR-BT HR 2.90, P=.004). No significant difference in OS was found in all comparisons (intermediate-risk EBRT vs LDR-BT HR 1.27, P=.687; intermediate-risk EBRT vs HDR-BT+EBRT HR 1.55, P=.470; low-risk LDR-BT vs EBRT HR 1.41, P=.500). Conclusions: Propensity score matched analysis showed that BT options led

  2. Greater decision-making competence is associated with greater expected-value sensitivity, but not overall risk taking: an examination of concurrent validity.

    PubMed

    Parker, Andrew M; Weller, Joshua A

    2015-01-01

    Decision-making competence reflects individual differences in the susceptibility to committing decision-making errors, measured using tasks common from behavioral decision research (e.g., framing effects, under/overconfidence, following decision rules). Prior research demonstrates that those with higher decision-making competence report lower incidence of health-risking and antisocial behaviors, but there has been less focus on intermediate processes that may impact real-world decisions, and, in particular, those implicated by normative models. Here we test the associations between measures of youth decision-making competence (Y-DMC) and one such process, the degree to which individuals make choices consistent with maximizing expected value (EV). Using a task involving hypothetical gambles, we find that greater EV sensitivity is associated with greater Y-DMC. Higher Y-DMC scores are associated with (a) choosing risky options when EV favors those options and (b) avoiding risky options when EV favors a certain option. This relationship is stronger for gambles that involved potential losses. The results suggest that Y-DMC captures decision processes consistent with standard normative evaluations of risky decisions.

  3. APOL1 renal-risk genotypes associate with longer hemodialysis survival in prevalent nondiabetic African American patients with end-stage renal disease.

    PubMed

    Ma, Lijun; Langefeld, Carl D; Comeau, Mary E; Bonomo, Jason A; Rocco, Michael V; Burkart, John M; Divers, Jasmin; Palmer, Nicholette D; Hicks, Pamela J; Bowden, Donald W; Lea, Janice P; Krisher, Jenna O; Clay, Margo J; Freedman, Barry I

    2016-08-01

    Relative to European Americans, evidence supports that African Americans with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) survive longer on dialysis. Renal-risk variants in the apolipoprotein L1 gene (APOL1), associated with nondiabetic nephropathy and less subclinical atherosclerosis, may contribute to dialysis outcomes. Here, APOL1 renal-risk variants were assessed for association with dialytic survival in 450 diabetic and 275 nondiabetic African American hemodialysis patients from Wake Forest and Emory School of Medicine outpatient facilities. Outcomes were provided by the ESRD Network 6-Southeastern Kidney Council Standardized Information Management System. Dates of death, receipt of a kidney transplant, and loss to follow-up were recorded. Outcomes were censored at the date of transplantation or through 1 July 2015. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were computed separately in patients with nondiabetic and diabetic ESRD, adjusting for the covariates age, gender, comorbidities, ancestry, and presence of an arteriovenous fistula or graft at dialysis initiation. In nondiabetic ESRD, patients with 2 (vs. 0/1) APOL1 renal-risk variants had significantly longer dialysis survival (hazard ratio 0.57), a pattern not observed in patients with diabetes-associated ESRD (hazard ratio 1.29). Thus, 2 APOL1 renal-risk variants are associated with longer dialysis survival in African Americans without diabetes, potentially relating to presence of renal-limited disease or less atherosclerosis.

  4. Toward core inter-professional health promotion competencies to address the non-communicable diseases and their risk factors through knowledge translation: Curriculum content assessment

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background To increase the global impact of health promotion related to non-communicable diseases, health professionals need evidence-based core competencies in health assessment and lifestyle behavior change. Assessment of health promotion curricula by health professional programs is a first step. Such program assessment is a means of 1. demonstrating collective commitment across health professionals to prevent non-communicable diseases; 2. addressing the knowledge translation gap between what is known about non-communicable diseases and their risk factors consistent with ‘best’ practice; and, 3. establishing core health-based competencies in the entry-level curricula of established health professions. Discussion Consistent with the World Health Organization’s definition of health (i.e., physical, emotional and social wellbeing) and the Ottawa Charter, health promotion competencies are those that support health rather than reduce signs and symptoms primarily. A process algorithm to guide the implementation of health promotion competencies by health professionals is described. The algorithm outlines steps from the initial assessment of a patient’s/client’s health and the indications for health behavior change, to the determination of whether that health professional assumes primary responsibility for implementing health behavior change interventions or refers the patient/client to others. An evidence-based template for assessment of the health promotion curriculum content of health professional education programs is outlined. It includes clinically-relevant behavior change theory; health assessment/examination tools; and health behavior change strategies/interventions that can be readily integrated into health professionals’ practices. Summary Assessment of the curricula in health professional education programs with respect to health promotion competencies is a compelling and potentially cost-effective initial means of preventing and reversing non

  5. Community-Based Management of Child Malnutrition in Zambia: HIV/AIDS Infection and Other Risk Factors on Child Survival

    PubMed Central

    Moramarco, Stefania; Amerio, Giulia; Ciarlantini, Clarice; Chipoma, Jean Kasengele; Simpungwe, Matilda Kakungu; Nielsen-Saines, Karin; Palombi, Leonardo; Buonomo, Ersilia

    2016-01-01

    (1) Background: Supplementary feeding programs (SFPs) are effective in the community-based treatment of moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) and prevention of severe acute malnutrition (SAM); (2) Methods: A retrospective study was conducted on a sample of 1266 Zambian malnourished children assisted from 2012 to 2014 in the Rainbow Project SFPs. Nutritional status was evaluated according to WHO/Unicef methodology. We performed univariate and multivariate Cox proportional risk regression to identify the main predictors of mortality. In addition, a time-to event analysis was performed to identify predictors of failure and time to cure events; (3) Results: The analysis included 858 malnourished children (19 months ± 9.4; 49.9% males). Program outcomes met international standards with a better performance for MAM compared to SAM. Cox regression identified SAM (3.8; 2.1–6.8), HIV infection (3.1; 1.7–5.5), and WAZ <−3 (3.1; 1.6–5.7) as predictors of death. Time to event showed 80% of children recovered by SAM/MAM at 24 weeks. (4) Conclusions: Preventing deterioration of malnutrition, coupled to early detection of HIV/AIDS with adequate antiretroviral treatment, and extending the duration of feeding supplementation, could be crucial elements for ensuring full recovery and improve child survival in malnourished Zambian children. PMID:27376317

  6. Kunyenga, "real sex," and survival: assessing the risk of HIV infection among urban street boys in Tanzania.

    PubMed

    Lockhart, Chris

    2002-09-01

    This article examines possible avenues of HIV infection among urban street boys in Tanzania. In doing so, it questions the ways that AIDS researchers have defined and approached the phenomenon of "survival sex" in East and Central Africa. The article specifically examines the boys' sexual networks, sexual practices, and attitudes regarding their own sexual behavior, including their perceived risk of HIV/AIDS infection. Seventy-five street boys aged eight to 20 from the city of Mwanza were interviewed. Results suggest that almost all street boys are involved in a sexual network in which homosexual and heterosexual behavior occurs. Homosexual practices are rooted in a complex set of behaviors and ideologies known as kunyenga, which is a situated aspect of life on the streets and helps maintain the boys' strong dependence on one another. A key aspect of the boys' sexual careers involves a decrease in kunyenga activity as they approach the age of 18 and an increase in heterosexual encounters after the age of 11. There appears to be a critical period between these ages in which heterosexual and kunyenga activities overlap. It is suggested that boys between these ages represent a potential bridge for HIV/AIDS infection between the general population and the relatively enclosed sexual network of street boys.

  7. The risks for adolescents of negatively biased self-evaluations of social competence: the mediating role of social support.

    PubMed

    Bédard, Karine; Bouffard, Thérèse; Pansu, Pascal

    2014-08-01

    This study conducted among 544 adolescents (M = 15.1 years, SD = .82) examined whether perceived social support from parents and peers mediated the relationship between biased self-evaluations of social competence and internalizing problems. The results showed negative links between bias in self-evaluation and depressive symptoms, social anxiety and social avoidance. Bias in self-evaluation of social competence was more strongly related to perceived peer support than perceived parental support. Gender differences were observed in the mediating role of social support. Among boys, parental support was a partial mediator only of the link between bias in self-evaluation and depressive symptoms. While perceived peer support was a partial mediator of the links between bias in self-evaluation and depressive symptoms, social anxiety and social avoidance in girls, this was the case only for social avoidance in boys. These findings suggest that girls may show vulnerability to peer emotional support at an earlier age than boys.

  8. On the Importance of Accounting for Competing Risks in Pediatric Brain Cancer: II. Regression Modeling and Sample Size

    SciTech Connect

    Tai, Bee-Choo; Grundy, Richard; Machin, David

    2011-03-15

    Purpose: To accurately model the cumulative need for radiotherapy in trials designed to delay or avoid irradiation among children with malignant brain tumor, it is crucial to account for competing events and evaluate how each contributes to the timing of irradiation. An appropriate choice of statistical model is also important for adequate determination of sample size. Methods and Materials: We describe the statistical modeling of competing events (A, radiotherapy after progression; B, no radiotherapy after progression; and C, elective radiotherapy) using proportional cause-specific and subdistribution hazard functions. The procedures of sample size estimation based on each method are outlined. These are illustrated by use of data comparing children with ependymoma and other malignant brain tumors. The results from these two approaches are compared. Results: The cause-specific hazard analysis showed a reduction in hazards among infants with ependymoma for all event types, including Event A (adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.45-1.28). Conversely, the subdistribution hazard analysis suggested an increase in hazard for Event A (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 0.80-2.30), but the reduction in hazards for Events B and C remained. Analysis based on subdistribution hazard requires a larger sample size than the cause-specific hazard approach. Conclusions: Notable differences in effect estimates and anticipated sample size were observed between methods when the main event showed a beneficial effect whereas the competing events showed an adverse effect on the cumulative incidence. The subdistribution hazard is the most appropriate for modeling treatment when its effects on both the main and competing events are of interest.

  9. Matrix metalloproteinase genes are associated with breast cancer risk and survival: the Breast Cancer Health Disparities Study.

    PubMed

    Slattery, Martha L; John, Esther; Torres-Mejia, Gabriela; Stern, Mariana; Lundgreen, Abbie; Hines, Lisa; Giuliano, Anna; Baumgartner, Kathy; Herrick, Jennifer; Wolff, Roger K

    2013-01-01

    Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) contribute to cancer through their involvement in cancer invasion and metastasis. We evaluated genetic variation in MMP1 (9 SNPs), MMP2 (8 SNPs), MMP3 (4 SNPs), and MMP9 (3 SNPs) and breast cancer risk among Hispanic (2111 cases, 2597 controls) and non-Hispanic white (NHW) (1481 cases, 1586 controls) women in the Breast Cancer Health Disparities Study. Ancestral informative markers (n = 104) were assessed to determine Native American (NA) ancestry. MMP1 [4 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)] and MMP2 (2 SNPs) were associated with breast cancer overall. MMP1 rs996999 had strongest associations among women with the most NA ancestry (OR 1.61,95% CI 1.09,2.40) as did MMP3 rs650108 (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.05,1.75) and MMP9 rs3787268 (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.09,2.13). The adaptive rank truncated product (ARTP) showed a significant pathway p(artp)  value of 0.04, with a stronger association among women with the most NA ancestry (p(artp) = 0.02). Significant pathway genes using the ARTP were MMP1 for all women (p(artp) = 0.02) and MMP9 for women with the most NA ancestry (p(artp) = 0.024); MMP2 was borderline significant overall (p(artp) =0.06) and MMP1 and MMP3 were borderline significant for women with the most NA ancestry (p(artp) = 0.07 and 0.06 respectively). MMP1 and MMP2 were associated with ER+/PR+ and ER+/PR-tumors; MMP3 and MMP9 were associated with ER-/PR- tumors. The pathway was highly significant with survival (p(artp) = 0.0041) with MMP2 having the strongest gene association (p(artp) = 0.0007). Our findings suggest that genetic variation in MMP genes influence breast cancer development and survival in this genetically admixed population.

  10. Correlation of IL-27 genetic polymorphisms with the risk and survival of cervical cancer in a Chinese Han population.

    PubMed

    Shi, Jian; Yuan, Meng; Liu, Shuang; Duan, Xiaoyang; Chen, Juan

    2016-05-01

    Interleukin-27 (IL-27) has been recognized as a pleiotropic cytokine with both pro- and anti-inflammatory properties. However, there are no data about the role of IL-27 polymorphism in the development of cervical cancer. A hospital-based case-control study was conducted in 380 patients with cervical cancer and 380 healthy controls to investigate the possible associations of IL-27 gene polymorphisms (-964A/G, 2905T/G, and 4730T/C), with susceptibility to cervical cancer and clinical outcome. Our results suggested that the IL-27 2905T/G was significantly associated with a decreased risk of cervical cancer (TG vs. TT, odds ratio (OR) = 0.77; 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 0.60-0.86; GG vs. TT, OR = 0.95; 95 % CI = 0.72-0.96; TG+GG vs. TT, OR = 0.87; 95 % CI = 0.65-0.94). However, the genotype and allele frequencies of IL-27 (-964A/G and 4730T/C) polymorphisms in cervical cancer patients were not significantly different from controls. Further analysis showed IL-27 2905T/G genotypes were associated with advanced tumor stages of cervical cancer patients. More interestingly, the IL-27 2905T/G genotypes were statistically significantly associated with the survival in cervical cancer patients. Our results showed that the IL-27 2905T/G genotypes were associated with decreased susceptibility and development of cervical cancer in Chinese Han population.

  11. Repression of BIM mediates survival signaling by MYC and AKT in high-risk T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

    PubMed

    Reynolds, C; Roderick, J E; LaBelle, J L; Bird, G; Mathieu, R; Bodaar, K; Colon, D; Pyati, U; Stevenson, K E; Qi, J; Harris, M; Silverman, L B; Sallan, S E; Bradner, J E; Neuberg, D S; Look, A T; Walensky, L D; Kelliher, M A; Gutierrez, A

    2014-09-01

    Treatment resistance in T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (T-ALL) is associated with phosphatase and tensin homolog (PTEN) deletions and resultant phosphatidylinositol 3'-kinase (PI3K)-AKT pathway activation, as well as MYC overexpression, and these pathways repress mitochondrial apoptosis in established T-lymphoblasts through poorly defined mechanisms. Normal T-cell progenitors are hypersensitive to mitochondrial apoptosis, a phenotype that is dependent on the expression of proapoptotic BIM. In a conditional zebrafish model, MYC downregulation induced BIM expression in T-lymphoblasts, an effect that was blunted by expression of constitutively active AKT. In human T-ALL cell lines and treatment-resistant patient samples, treatment with MYC or PI3K-AKT pathway inhibitors each induced BIM upregulation and apoptosis, indicating that BIM is repressed downstream of MYC and PI3K-AKT in high-risk T-ALL. Restoring BIM function in human T-ALL cells using a stapled peptide mimetic of the BIM BH3 domain had therapeutic activity, indicating that BIM repression is required for T-ALL viability. In the zebrafish model, where MYC downregulation induces T-ALL regression via mitochondrial apoptosis, T-ALL persisted despite MYC downregulation in 10% of bim wild-type zebrafish, 18% of bim heterozygotes and in 33% of bim homozygous mutants (P=0.017). We conclude that downregulation of BIM represents a key survival signal downstream of oncogenic MYC and PI3K-AKT signaling in treatment-resistant T-ALL.

  12. Neyman, Markov processes and survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Yang, Grace

    2013-07-01

    J. Neyman used stochastic processes extensively in his applied work. One example is the Fix and Neyman (F-N) competing risks model (1951) that uses finite homogeneous Markov processes to analyse clinical trials with breast cancer patients. We revisit the F-N model, and compare it with the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) formulation for right censored data. The comparison offers a way to generalize the K-M formulation to include risks of recovery and relapses in the calculation of a patient's survival probability. The generalization is to extend the F-N model to a nonhomogeneous Markov process. Closed-form solutions of the survival probability are available in special cases of the nonhomogeneous processes, like the popular multiple decrement model (including the K-M model) and Chiang's staging model, but these models do not consider recovery and relapses while the F-N model does. An analysis of sero-epidemiology current status data with recurrent events is illustrated. Fix and Neyman used Neyman's RBAN (regular best asymptotic normal) estimates for the risks, and provided a numerical example showing the importance of considering both the survival probability and the length of time of a patient living a normal life in the evaluation of clinical trials. The said extension would result in a complicated model and it is unlikely to find analytical closed-form solutions for survival analysis. With ever increasing computing power, numerical methods offer a viable way of investigating the problem.

  13. Quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157 on lettuce, based on survival data from controlled studies in a climate chamber.

    PubMed

    Ottoson, Jakob R; Nyberg, Karin; Lindqvist, Roland; Albihn, Ann

    2011-12-01

    The aims of the study were to determine the survival of Escherichia coli O157 on lettuce as a function of temperature and light intensity, and to use that information in a screening-level quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) in order to evaluate risk-reducing strategies including irrigation water quality guidelines, rinsing, and holding time between last irrigation and harvest. Iceberg lettuce was grown in a climate chamber and inoculated with E. coli O157. Bacterial numbers were determined with the standard plate count method after inoculation and 1, 2, 4, and 7 day(s) postinoculation. The experiments were carried out at 11, 18, and 25°C in light intensities of 0, 400, and 600 mmol (m(2))(-1) s(-1). There was a significant effect of temperature and light intensity on survival, with less bacteria isolated from lettuce incubated at 25 and 18°C compared with 11°C (P < 0.0001), and in light intensities of 400 and 600 mmol (m(2))(-1) s(-1) compared with 0 mmol (m(2))(-1) s(-1) (P < 0.001). The average log reductions after 1, 2, 4, and 7 day(s) were 1.14, 1.71, 2.04, and 3.0, respectively. The QMRA compared the relative risk with lettuce consumption from 20 scenarios. A stricter water quality guideline gave a mean fivefold risk reduction. Holding times of 1, 2, 4, and 7 day(s) reduced the risk 3, 8, 8, and 18 times, respectively, compared with harvest the same day as the last irrigation. Finally, rinsing lettuce for 15 s in cold tap water prior to consumption gave a sixfold risk reduction compared with eating unrinsed lettuce. Sensitivity analyses indicated that variation in bacterial inactivation had the most significant effect on the risk outcome. A QMRA determining the relative risks between scenarios reduces uncertainty and can provide risk managers with decision support.

  14. Meta-analysis of survival in patients with HNSCC discriminates risk depending on combined HPV and p16 status.

    PubMed

    Coordes, Annekatrin; Lenz, Klaus; Qian, Xu; Lenarz, Minoo; Kaufmann, Andreas M; Albers, Andreas E

    2016-08-01

    Data indicate a better prognosis for human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). HPV and p16 detection are established markers for HPV-related HNSCC. Both are accepted as survival-independent predictors. Previous studies investigating the survival in HNSCC patients depending on HPV(+/-) and p16(+/-) status consistently found discordant results with p16(-)/HPV(+) and p16(+)/HPV(-). However, no meta-analysis regarding the survival according to combined HPV/p16 status has been performed yet. The objective of this study was to discriminate the impact of combined HPV(+/-) and p16(+/-) status on survival. Data sources were identification and review of publications assessing survival of the distinct subgroups with both p16 and HPV investigated in HNSCC until February, 2015. A meta-analysis was performed to classify survival and clinical outcomes. 18 out of 397 articles (4424 patients) were eligible for the meta-analysis. The percent proportion of the subgroups was 25 % for HPV(+)/p16(+), 61.2 % for HPV(-)/p16(-), 7.1 % for HPV(-)/p16(+) and 6.8 % for HPV(+)/P16(-). The meta-analysis showed a significantly improved 5-year overall survival (OS), 5-year disease-free survival and their corresponding hazard ratio for HPV(+)/p16(+) HNSCC in comparison to HPV(-)/p16(-), HPV(+)/p16(-) and HPV(-)/p16(+). The 5-year OS of the HPV(-)/p16(+) subgroup was intermediate while HPV(+)/p16(-) and HPV(-)/p16(-) HNSCC had the shortest survival. With current therapeutic strategies, survival of patients with HNSCC is better if associated with HPV(+)/p16(+) or HPV(-)/p16(+). Clinical trials are needed to confirm the distinct survival pattern and to investigate possible differences in survival for HPV(+)/p16(-) and HPV(-)/p16(+) HNSCC. To further differentiate p16(+) HNSCC, HPV testing may be advisable.

  15. 10-Year Survival and Quality of Life in Patients With High-Risk {sub P}N{sub 0} Prostate Cancer Following Definitive Radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Berg, Arne Lilleby, Wolfgang; Bruland, Oyvind Sverre; Fossa, Sophie Dorothea

    2007-11-15

    Purpose: To evaluate long-term overall survival (OS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), clinical progression-free survival (cPFS), and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) following definitive radiotherapy (RT) given to T{sub 1-4p}N{sub 0}M{sub 0} prostate cancer patients provided by a single institution between 1989 and 1996. Methods and Materials: We assessed outcome among 203 patients who had completed three-dimensional conformal RT (66 Gy) without hormone treatment and in whom staging by lymphadenectomy had been performed. OS was compared with an age-matched control group from the general population. A cross-sectional, self-report survey of HRQoL was performed among surviving patients. Results: Median observation time was 10 years (range, 1-16 years). Eighty-one percent had high-risk tumors defined as T{sub 3-4} or Gleason score (GS) {>=}7B (4+3). Among these, 10-year OS, CSS, and cPFS rates were 52%, 66%, and 39%, respectively. The corresponding fractions in low-risk patients (T{sub 1-2} and GS {<=}7A [3+4]) were 79%, 95%, and 73%, respectively. Both CSS and cPFS were predicted by GS and T-classification; OS was associated with GS only. High-risk, but not low-risk, patients had reduced OS compared with the general population (p < 0.0005). When pelvis-related side effects were included in multivariate analyzes together with physical function and pain, sexual, urinary, and bowel function were not independently associated with self-reported global quality of life. Conclusions: Despite surgically proven {sub p}N{sub 0}, RT with dosage <70 Gy as monotherapy does not give satisfactory CSS rates after 10 years in patients with T{sub 3-4} or GS {>=}7B.

  16. Association of germline microRNA SNPs in pre-miRNA flanking region and breast cancer risk and survival: the Carolina Breast Cancer Study

    PubMed Central

    Bensen, Jeannette T.; Tse, Chiu Kit; Nyante, Sarah J.; Barnholtz-Sloan, Jill S.; Cole, Stephen R.; Millikan, Robert C.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose Common germline variation in the 5′ region proximal to precursor (pre-) miRNA gene sequences is evaluated for association with breast cancer risk and survival among African Americans and Caucasians. Methods We genotyped 9 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within 6 miRNA gene regions previously associated with breast cancer, in 1972 cases and 1776 controls. In a race-stratified analysis using unconditional logistic regression, odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated to evaluate SNP association with breast cancer risk. Additionally, hazard ratios (HR) for breast cancer-specific mortality were estimated. Results 2 miR-185 SNPs provided suggestive evidence of an inverse association with breast cancer risk (rs2008591, OR = 0.72 (95% CI = 0.53 – 0.98, p-value = 0.04) and rs887205, OR = 0.71 (95% CI = 0.52 – 0.96, p-value = 0.03), respectively) among African Americans. Two SNPs, miR-34b/34c (rs4938723, HR = 0.57 (95% CI = 0.37 – 0.89, p-value = 0.01)) and miR-206 (rs6920648, HR = 0.77 (95% CI = 0.61 – 0.97, p-value = 0.02)), provided evidence of association with breast cancer survival. Further adjustment for stage resulted in more modest associations with survival (HR = 0.65 (95% CI = 0.42 – 1.02, p-value = 0.06 and HR = 0.79 (95% CI = 0.62 – 1.00, p-value = 0.05, respectively). Conclusions Our results suggest that germline variation in the 5' region proximal to pre-miRNA gene sequences may be associated with breast cancer risk among African Americans and breast cancer-specific survival generally, however further validation is needed to confirm these findings. PMID:23526039

  17. Disparate survival and risk of secondary non-Hodgkin lymphoma in histologic subtypes of Hodgkin lymphoma: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Ali, Shihab; Olszewski, Adam J

    2014-07-01

    We compared survival outcomes and rates of secondary non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in 28 323 patients with nodular lymphocyte predominant (NLPHL) and classical Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database, diagnosed between 1995 and 2010. In a multivariate analysis NLPHL demonstrated a significantly better relative survival (5-year risk of lymphoma-related death 5.7%, hazard ratio [HR] 0.46, p < 0.0001) than the reference nodular sclerosis (NSHL) subtype (5-year risk 12.7%). Lymphocyte-rich classical HL had outcomes comparable to NSHL (5-year risk 14.3%, HR 0.84, p = 0.11). Exceptionally poor outcomes were observed in lymphocyte depleted HL (5-year risk 48.8%, HR 2.26, p < 0.0001). The risk of secondary NHL was increased in NLPHL (HR 2.81, p < 0.001) and lymphocyte-rich classical HL (HR 2.27, p = 0.002), but not in other subtypes compared with NSHL. In conclusion, the histologic classification retains a significant prognostic value in HL and the disparities between the subtypes warrant customized treatment and surveillance strategies.

  18. Components of competence in the community aged.

    PubMed

    Thomae, H

    1992-12-01

    Following a discussion of different approaches to the definition of 'competence' and their theoretical background, the need for both situation-specific and global conceptualizations of this construct is stressed. Aside from competencies for physical and social survival, those related to psychological survival should be considered. A battery of indicators of competence, as used in the Bonn Longitudinal Study on Aging (BOLSA), was helpful in identifying six groups of elderly people with different levels of competence in the range of 'normal' aging. Cognitive and personality variables most significantly differentiated the competence groups. On the basis of these findings, the value of complex competence models and the need for situation-specific and person-specific assessments of competence is stressed.

  19. Human Papillomavirus-16 Infection in Advanced Oral Cavity Cancer Patients Is Related to an Increased Risk of Distant Metastases and Poor Survival

    PubMed Central

    Liao, Chun-Ta; Lee, Li-Yu; Hsueh, Chuen; Chen, Tse-Ching; Lin, Chien-Yu; Fan, Kang-Hsing; Wang, Hung-Ming; Huang, Shiang-Fu; Chen, I-How; Kang, Chung-Jan; Ng, Shu-Hang; Yang, Shu-Li; Tsao, Kuo-Chien; Chang, Yu-Liang; Yen, Tzu-Chen

    2012-01-01

    Background Human papillomavirus (HPV) is an oncogenic virus causing oropharyngeal cancers and resulting in a favorable outcome after the treatment. The role of HPV in oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) remains ambiguous. Objective This study aimed to examine the effect of HPV infection on disease control among patients with OSCC following radical surgery with radiation-based adjuvant therapy. Patients and Method We prospectively followed 173 patients with advanced OSCC (96% were stage III/IV) who had undergone radical surgery and adjuvant therapy between 2004 and 2006. They were followed between surgery and death or up to 60 months. Surgical specimens were examined using a PCR-based HPV blot test. The primary endpoints were the risk of relapse and the time to relapse; the secondary endpoints were disease-free survival, disease-specific survival, and overall survival. Results The prevalence of HPV-positive OSCC was 22%; HPV-16 (9%) and HPV-18 (7%) were the genotypes most commonly encountered. Solitary HPV-16 infection was a poor predictor of 5-year distant metastases (hazard ratio, 3.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.4–8.0; P = 0.005), disease-free survival (P = 0.037), disease-specific survival (P = 0.006), and overall survival (P = 0.010), whereas HPV-18 infection had no impact on 5-year outcomes. The rate of 5-year distant metastases was significantly higher in the HPV-16 or level IV/V metastasis group compared with both the extracapsular spread or tumor depth ≥11-mm group and patients without risk factors (P<0.001). Conclusions HPV infections in advanced OSCC patients are not uncommon and clinically relevant. Compared with HPV-16-negative advanced OSCC patients, those with a single HPV-16 infection are at higher risk of distant metastases and poor survival despite undergoing radiation-based adjuvant therapy and require a more aggressive adjuvant treatment and a more thorough follow-up. PMID:22808258

  20. Setting priorities for private land conservation in fire-prone landscapes: Are fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation competing or compatible objectives?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Syphard, Alexandra D.; Butsic, Van; Bar-Massada, Avi; Keeley, Jon E.; Tracey, Jeff A.; Fisher, Robert N.

    2016-01-01

    Although wildfire plays an important role in maintaining biodiversity in many ecosystems, fire management to protect human assets is often carried out by different agencies than those tasked for conserving biodiversity. In fact, fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation are often viewed as competing objectives. Here we explored the role of management through private land conservation and asked whether we could identify private land acquisition strategies that fulfill the mutual objectives of biodiversity conservation and fire risk reduction, or whether the maximization of one objective comes at a detriment to the other. Using a fixed budget and number of homes slated for development, we simulated 20 years of housing growth under alternative conservation selection strategies, and then projected the mean risk of fires destroying structures and the area and configuration of important habitat types in San Diego County, California, USA. We found clear differences in both fire risk projections and biodiversity impacts based on the way conservation lands are prioritized for selection, but these differences were split between two distinct groupings. If no conservation lands were purchased, or if purchases were prioritized based on cost or likelihood of development, both the projected fire risk and biodiversity impacts were much higher than if conservation lands were purchased in areas with high fire hazard or high species richness. Thus, conserving land focused on either of the two objectives resulted in nearly equivalent mutual benefits for both. These benefits not only resulted from preventing development in sensitive areas, but they were also due to the different housing patterns and arrangements that occurred as development was displaced from those areas. Although biodiversity conflicts may still arise using other fire management strategies, this study shows that mutual objectives can be attained through land-use planning in this region. These results likely

  1. Blockade of CCR7 leads to decreased dendritic cell migration to draining lymph nodes and promotes graft survival in low-risk corneal transplantation.

    PubMed

    Hos, D; Dörrie, J; Schaft, N; Bock, F; Notara, M; Kruse, F E; Krautwald, S; Cursiefen, C; Bachmann, B O

    2016-05-01

    The chemokine receptor CCR7 is essential for migration of mature dendritic cells (DCs) to the regional lymph nodes, and it has been shown that blocking of CCR7 improves graft survival after high-risk corneal transplantation in vascularized recipient corneas. However, it is so far unknown whether blocking of CCR7 reduces migration of DCs from the avascular cornea to the draining lymph nodes and whether this leads to improved graft survival also in the low-risk setting of corneal transplantation, which accounts for the majority of perforating transplantations performed. Therefore, in this study, pellets containing Freund's adjuvant and bovine serum albumin (BSA) conjugated to Alexa488 fluorescent dye were implanted into the corneal stroma of BALB/c mice to analyze antigen uptake by corneal DCs and their migration to the regional lymph nodes. After pellet implantation, mice were either treated by local administration of a CCR7 blocking fusion protein that consisted of CCL19 fused to the Fc part of human IgG1 or a control-IgG. In vivo fluorescence microscopy showed uptake of Alexa488-conjugated BSA by corneal DCs within 8 h. Furthermore, analysis of single cell suspensions of draining lymph nodes prepared after 48 h revealed that 2.1 ± 0.3% of CD11c(+) cells were also Alexa488(+). Importantly, DC migration was significantly reduced after topical administration of CCL19-IgG (1.2 ± 0.2%; p < 0.05). To test the effect of CCR7 blockade on graft rejection after allogeneic low-risk keratoplasty, corneal transplantations were performed using C57BL/6-mice as donors and BALB/c-mice as recipients. Treatment mice received two intraperitoneal loading doses of CCL19-IgG prior to transplantation, followed by local treatment with CCL19-IgG containing eye drops for the first two weeks after transplantation. Control mice received same amounts of control-IgG. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that in the CCL19-IgG treated group, 76% of the grafts survived through the end

  2. Impact of Increasing Age on Cause-Specific Mortality and Morbidity in Patients With Stage I Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer: A Competing Risks Analysis.

    PubMed

    Eguchi, Takashi; Bains, Sarina; Lee, Ming-Ching; Tan, Kay See; Hristov, Boris; Buitrago, Daniel H; Bains, Manjit S; Downey, Robert J; Huang, James; Isbell, James M; Park, Bernard J; Rusch, Valerie W; Jones, David R; Adusumilli, Prasad S

    2017-01-20

    Purpose To perform competing risks analysis and determine short- and long-term cancer- and noncancer-specific mortality and morbidity in patients who had undergone resection for stage I non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Patients and Methods Of 5,371 consecutive patients who had undergone curative-intent resection of primary lung cancer at our institution (2000 to 2011), 2,186 with pathologic stage I NSCLC were included in the analysis. All preoperative clinical variables known to affect outcomes were included in the analysis, specifically, Charlson comorbidity index, predicted postoperative (ppo) diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide, and ppo forced expiratory volume in 1 second. Cause-specific mortality analysis was performed with competing risks analysis. Results Of 2,186 patients, 1,532 (70.1%) were ≥ 65 years of age, including 638 (29.2%) ≥ 75 years of age. In patients < 65, 65 to 74, and ≥ 75 years of age, 5-year lung cancer-specific cumulative incidence of death (CID) was 7.5%, 10.7%, and 13.2%, respectively (overall, 10.4%); noncancer-specific CID was 1.8%, 4.9%, and 9.0%, respectively (overall, 5.3%). In patients ≥ 65 years of age, for up to 2.5 years after resection, noncancer-specific CID was higher than lung cancer-specific CID; the higher noncancer-specific, early-phase mortality was enhanced in patients ≥ 75 years of age than in those 65 to 74 years of age. Multivariable analysis showed that low ppo diffusing capacity of lung for carbon monoxide was an independent predictor of severe morbidity ( P < .001), 1-year mortality ( P < .001), and noncancer-specific mortality ( P < .001), whereas low ppo forced expiratory volume in 1 second was an independent predictor of lung cancer-specific mortality ( P = .002). Conclusion In patients who undergo curative-intent resection of stage I NSCLC, noncancer-specific mortality is a significant competing event, with an increasing impact as patient age increases.

  3. Prevention for Preschoolers at High Risk for Conduct Problems: Immediate Outcomes on Parenting Practices and Child Social Competence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brotman, Laurie Miller; Gouley, Kathleen Kiely; Chesir-Teran, Daniel; Dennis, Tracy; Klein, Rachel G.; Shrout, Patrick

    2005-01-01

    This study investigated the immediate impact of an 8-month center- and home-based prevention program for preschoolers at high risk for conduct problems. We report immediate program effects on observed and self-rated parenting practices and observed child behavior with peers. Ninety-nine preschool-age siblings of adjudicated youths and their…

  4. Risk factors for death and the 3-year survival of patients with systemic sclerosis: the French ItinérAIR-Sclérodermie study

    PubMed Central

    Carpentier, Patrick; Gressin, Virginie; Diot, Elisabeth; Allanore, Yannick; Sibilia, Jean; Launay, David; Mouthon, Luc; Jego, Patrick; Cabane, Jean; de Groote, Pascal; Chabrol, Amélie; Lazareth, Isabelle; Guillevin, Loïc; Clerson, Pierre; Humbert, Marc

    2009-01-01

    Objectives. This longitudinal study investigated survival, risk factors and causes of death in the multicentre ItinérAIR-Sclérodermie cohort of patients with SSc without severe pulmonary fibrosis or severe left heart disease at baseline. Methods. At 3-year follow-up, vital status was obtained from investigators or French national death records. Causes of death were classified as SSc-related or otherwise. Data were censored at 37 months, time of death or loss to follow-up, whichever was earlier. Survival was estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method. Multivariate survival analyses were conducted using the Cox model. Results. In total, 546 patients were followed for a median duration of 37 months, representing 1547 patient-years. At baseline, the majority of patients were female, with lcSSc, mean age 54.9 ± 13.0 years and mean duration of SSc of 8.8 ± 8.1 years. In total, 47 patients died, giving a 3-year survival of 91.1% and cumulative mortality of 3.04 deaths per 100 patient-years; 17 deaths (32.2%) resulted from pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) and eight (17.1%) from cancer. Of the 47 patients with PAH at baseline, 20 died during follow-up, giving a 3-year survival of 56.3%. In a multivariate analysis, PAH [hazard ratio (HR) 7.246], age at first symptom (HR 1.052), duration of SSc (HR 1.047 per year) and Rodnan skin score (per one point) (HR 1.045) were associated with increased mortality. Conclusion. This 3-year study observed survival and mortality estimates that were comparable with previous reports. PAH increased the HR for mortality in patients with SSc, justifying yearly echocardiographic screening. PMID:19174571

  5. Application of Survival Analysis to Study Timing and Probability of Outcome Attainment by a Community College Student Cohort

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mourad, Roger; Hong, Ji-Hee

    2008-01-01

    This study applies competing risks survival analysis to describe outcome attainment for an entire cohort of students who first attended a Midwestern community college in the Fall Semester 2001. Outcome attainment included transfer to a four-year institution, degree/ certificate attainment from the community college under study, and transfer to a…

  6. Survival Rates and Risk Factors for Cephalad and L5-S1 Adjacent Segment Degeneration after L5 Floating Lumbar Fusion : A Minimum 2-Year Follow-Up

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Young-Seok; Park, Seung-Won

    2015-01-01

    Objective Although the L5-S1 has distinct structural features in comparison with other lumbar spine segments, not much is known about adjacent segment degeneration (ASD) at the L5-S1 segment. The aim of study was to compare the incidence and character of ASD of the cephalad and L5-S1 segments after L5 floating lumbar fusion. Methods From 2005 to 2010, 115 patients who underwent L5 floating lumber fusion were investigated. The mean follow-up period was 46.1 months. The incidence of radiological and clinical ASD of the cephalad and the L5-S1 segments was compared using survival analysis. Risk factors affecting ASD were analyzed using a log rank test and the Cox proportional hazard model. Results Radiological ASD of the L5-S1 segment had a statistically significant higher survival rate than that of the cephalad segment (p=0.001). However, clinical ASD of the L5-S1 segment was significantly lower survival rates than that of the cephalad segment (p=0.038). Risk factor analysis showed that disc degeneration of the cephalad segment and preoperative spinal stenosis of the L5-S1 segment were risk factors. Conclusion In L5 floating fusion, radiological ASD was more common in the cephalad segment and clinical ASD was more common in the L5-S1 segment. At the L5-S1 segment, the degree of spinal stenosis appears to be the most influential risk factor in ASD incidences, unlike the cephalad segment. PMID:25733991

  7. PSA Response to Neoadjuvant Androgen Deprivation Therapy Is a Strong Independent Predictor of Survival in High-Risk Prostate Cancer in the Dose-Escalated Radiation Therapy Era

    SciTech Connect

    McGuire, Sean E.; Lee, Andrew K.; Cerne, Jasmina Z.; Munsell, Mark F.; Levy, Lawrence B.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Choi, Seungtaek L.; Nguyen, Quynh N.; Hoffman, Karen E.; Pugh, Thomas J.; Frank, Steven J.; Corn, Paul G.; Logothetis, Christopher J.; Kuban, Deborah A.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of the study was to evaluate the prognostic value of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) response to neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) prior to dose-escalated radiation therapy (RT) and long-term ADT in high-risk prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: We reviewed the charts of all patients diagnosed with high-risk prostate cancer and treated with a combination of long-term ADT (median, 24 months) and dose-escalated (median, 75.6 Gy) RT between 1990 and 2007. The associations among patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics with biochemical response to neoadjuvant ADT and their effects on failure-free survival (FFS), time to distant metastasis (TDM), prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) and overall survival (OS) were examined. Results: A total of 196 patients met criteria for inclusion. Median follow-up time for patients alive at last contact was 7.0 years (range, 0.5-18.1 years). Multivariate analysis identified the pre-RT PSA concentration (<0.5 vs {>=}0.5 ng/mL) as a significant independent predictor of FFS (P=.021), TDM (P=.009), PCSM (P=.039), and OS (P=.037). On multivariate analysis, pretreatment PSA (iPSA) and African-American race were significantly associated with failure to achieve a pre-RT PSA of <0.5 ng/mL. Conclusions: For high-risk prostate cancer patients treated with long-term ADT and dose-escalated RT, a pre-RT PSA level {>=}0.5 ng/mL after neoadjuvant ADT predicts for worse survival measures. Both elevated iPSA and African-American race are associated with increased risk of having a pre-RT PSA level {>=}0.5 ng/mL. These patients should be considered for clinical trials that test newer, more potent androgen-depleting therapies such as abiraterone and MDV3100 in combination with radiation.

  8. Risk of recurrence and conditional survival in complete responders treated with TKIs plus or less locoregional therapies for metastatic renal cell carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Santini, Daniele; Santoni, Matteo; Conti, Alessandro; Procopio, Giuseppe; Verzoni, Elena; Galli, Luca; di Lorenzo, Giuseppe; De Giorgi, Ugo; De Lisi, Delia; Nicodemo, Maurizio; Maruzzo, Marco; Massari, Francesco; Buti, Sebastiano; Altobelli, Emanuela; Biasco, Elisa; Ricotta, Riccardo; Porta, Camillo; Vincenzi, Bruno; Papalia, Rocco; Marchetti, Paolo; Burattini, Luciano; Berardi, Rossana; Muto, Giovanni; Montironi, Rodolfo; Cascinu, Stefano; Tonini, Giuseppe

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE We retrospectively analyzed the risk of recurrence and conditional Disease-Free Survival (cDFS) in 63 patients with complete remission during treatment with tirosin kinase inhibitor (TKI), alone or with local treatment in metastatic renal cell carcinoma. RESULTS 37% patients achieve CR with TKI alone, while 63% with additional loco-regional treatments. 49% patients recurred after CR, with a median Disease free survival of 28.2 months. Patients treated with multimodal approaches present lower rate of recurrence (40% vs 61%) and longer Disease free survival compared to patient treated with TKI alone (16.5 vs 41.9 months, p=0.039).Furthermore the rate of recurrence was higher in patients with brain (88%), pancreatic (71%) and bone metastasis (50%). Patients who continued TKI therapy after complete response had a longer disease free survival than patients who stopped therapy, although the difference was not significant (42.1 vs 25.1 months, p=0.254). 2y-cDFS was better in patients treated with multimodal treatment and who continued TKIs than the other patient arms. CONCLUSIONS The prognostic value of CR depends on the site where was obtained and how was obtained (with or without locoregional treatment). Cessation of TKI should be carefully considered in complete responder patients. PMID:27027342

  9. Identifying at risk individuals for drug and alcohol dependence: teaching the competency to students in classroom and clinical settings.

    PubMed

    Kane, Irene; Mitchell, Ann M; Puskar, Kathryn R; Hagle, Holly; Talcott, Kimberly; Fioravanti, Marie; Droppa, Mandy; Luongo, Peter F; Lindsay, Dawn

    2014-01-01

    Alcohol use and other drug use affect patient healthcare outcomes. This article describes a classroom-to-clinical approach teaching nursing students to utilize motivational interviewing techniques to support patient behavior change. Through the lens of a universal prevention method, nursing students learned about reward circuit activation leading to risky substance use and the difference between addiction and at-risk use. Specific assessment tools and motivational interviewing techniques were presented in the classroom. Students then applied their knowledge in simulation laboratories and clinical rotations.

  10. Genetic polymorphisms in the microRNA binding-sites of the thymidylate synthase gene predict risk and survival in gastric cancer.

    PubMed

    Shen, Rong; Liu, Hongliang; Wen, Juyi; Liu, Zhensheng; Wang, Li-E; Wang, Qiming; Tan, Dongfeng; Ajani, Jaffer A; Wei, Qingyi

    2015-09-01

    Thymidylate synthase (TYMS) plays a crucial role in folate metabolism as well as DNA synthesis and repair. We hypothesized that functional polymorphisms in the 3' UTR of TYMS are associated with gastric cancer risk and survival. In the present study, we tested our hypothesis by genotyping three potentially functional (at miRNA binding sites) TYMS SNPs (rs16430 6bp del/ins, rs2790 A>G and rs1059394 C>T) in 379 gastric cancer patients and 431 cancer-free controls. Compared with the rs16430 6bp/6bp + 6bp/0bp genotypes, the 0bp/0bp genotype was associated with significantly increased gastric cancer risk (adjusted OR = 1.72, 95% CI = 1.15-2.58). Similarly, rs2790 GG and rs1059394 TT genotypes were also associated with significantly increased risk (adjusted OR = 2.52, 95% CI = 1.25-5.10 and adjusted OR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.04-2.35, respectively), compared with AA + AG and CC + CT genotypes, respectively. In the haplotype analysis, the T-G-0bp haplotype was associated with significantly increased gastric cancer risk, compared with the C-A-6bp haplotype (adjusted OR = 1.34, 95% CI = 1.05-1.72). Survival analysis revealed that rs16430 0bp/0bp and rs1059394 TT genotypes were also associated with poor survival in gastric cancer patients who received chemotherapy treatment (adjusted HR = 1.61, 95% CI = 1.05-2.48 and adjusted HR = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.02-2.48, respectively). These results suggest that these three variants in the miRNA binding sites of TYMS may be associated with cancer risk and survival of gastric cancer patients. Larger population studies are warranted to verify these findings.

  11. Prevalence and associated survival of high-risk HPV-related adenoid cystic carcinoma of the salivary glands.

    PubMed

    Qian, Xu; Kaufmann, Andreas M; Chen, Chao; Tzamalis, Georgios; Hofmann, Veit M; Keilholz, Ulrich; Hummel, Michael; Albers, Andreas E

    2016-08-01

    Adenoid cystic carcinoma (SACC) is a rare malignancy, but a frequent subtype in minor and major salivary glands. The molecular alterations or biomarkers that underlie its development and progression as well as therapy outcomes are poorly characterized. The main study goal was to investigate reliable biomarkers and patient-related factors that may have impact on recurrence and long-term survival of SACC. The prevalence of human papilloma virus (HPV) in SACC was determined by HPV-DNA genotyping and p16 immunostaining. Epithelial growth factor receptor (EGFR), p53 and Ki-67 expression were also evaluated. Twenty-eight (42%) of 67 patients were HPV-DNA positive. Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that SACC patients with metastases (P=0.03) had a poor overall survival (OS) and a shorter recurrence-free survival (P<0.001). Positive resection margins significantly predicted shorter recurrence-free survival (P=0.01). In the multivariate analysis, non-metastatic disease (P=0.033) and p16 positivity (P=0.005) have shown their prediction value for OS while non-metastatic disease (P=0.002), HPV positivity (P=0.041) and negative resection margin predicted a better recurrence-free survival. The present study documents for the first time the positivity for HPV infection and overexpression of certain markers (p16, Ki-67, EGFR and p53) used in diagnostics in SACC as well as characterizes clinical entities. These factors might be exploited in the future as biomarkers for its prognostic value. Using the clinical and pathological basis for predicting different outcomes could significantly facilitate SACC stratification and potentially directing treatment.

  12. Observing and Planning for Play and Competence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neumann, Eva A.

    This paper presents a framework useful for preschool and elementary teachers in developing a basic understanding of competency and play and their interrelationship. Specific guidelines are given for observing and planning toward increasing opportunities for competency and play. Competency is viewed as consisting of growth, risk-taking, and a…

  13. Androgen Deprivation Therapy Does Not Impact Cause-Specific or Overall Survival in High-Risk Prostate Cancer Managed With Brachytherapy and Supplemental External Beam

    SciTech Connect

    Merrick, Gregory S. . E-mail: gmerrick@urologicresearchinstitute.org; Butler, Wayne M.; Wallner, Kent E.; Galbreath, Robert W.; Allen, Zachariah A.; Adamovich, Edward; Lief, Jonathan

    2007-05-01

    Purpose: To determine cause-specific survival (CSS), biochemical progression-free survival (bPFS), and overall survival (OS) in high-risk prostate cancer patients undergoing brachytherapy with or without supplemental therapies. Methods and Materials: Between April 1995 and July 2002, 204 patients with high-risk prostate cancer (Gleason score {>=}8 or prostate-specific antigen [PSA] >20 ng/mL or clinical stage {>=}T2c) underwent brachytherapy. Median follow-up was 7.0 years. The bPFS was defined by a PSA {<=}0.40 ng/mL after nadir. Multiple clinical, treatment, and dosimetric parameters were evaluated for the impact on survival. Results: The 10-year CSS, bPFS, and OS were 88.9%, 86.6%, and 68.6%, respectively. A statistically significant difference in bPFS was discerned between hormone naive, ADT {<=}6 months, and ADT >6 month cohorts (79.7% vs. 95.% vs. 89.9%, p = 0.032). Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) did not impact CSS or OS. For bPFS patients, the median posttreatment PSA was <0.04 ng/mL. A Cox linear regression analysis demonstrated that Gleason score was the best predictor of CSS, whereas percent positive biopsies and duration of ADT best predicted for bPFS. The OS was best predicted by Gleason score and diabetes. Thirty-eight patients have died, with 26 of the deaths from cardiovascular/pulmonary disease or second malignancy. Eleven patients have died of metastatic prostate cancer. Conclusions: The ADT improved 10-year bPFS without statistical impact on CSS or OS. Death as a result of cardiovascular/pulmonary disease and second malignancies were more than twice as common as prostate cancer deaths. Strategies to improve cardiovascular health should positively impact OS.

  14. Risk Factors Associated With Complication Rates of Becker-Type Expander Implants in Relation to Implant Survival: Review of 314 Implants in 237 Patients.

    PubMed

    Taboada-Suarez, Antonio; Brea-García, Beatriz; Magán-Muñoz, Fernando; Couto-González, Iván; González-Álvarez, Eduardo

    2015-12-01

    Although autologous tissue reconstruction is the best option for breast reconstruction, using implants is still a reliable and simple method, offering acceptable aesthetic results. Becker-type implants are permanent implants that offer a 1-stage reconstructive option. A retrospective study was carried out in our center reviewing the clinical reports of 237 patients, in whom a total of 314 Becker-type prostheses were implanted. Overall survival was calculated using a Kaplan-Meier estimate. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios. At the end of the study, 214 expanders (68.15%) presented no complications, 40 (12.47%) developed significant capsular contracture, in 27 (8.60%) infection occurred, 24 (7.64%) suffered minor complications, and 9 (2.87%) ruptured. The mean survival time of the expanders was 120.41 months (95% CI: 109.62, 131.19). Radiotherapy, chemotherapy, high Molecular Immunology Borstel, age, mastectomy performed previously to the implant, ductal carcinoma, advanced tumoral stage, experience of the surgeon, and Becker 35-type implants were significantly related to a high number of complications in relation to the survival of the implants. Cox regression analysis revealed that the main risk factors for the survival of expander implants included radiotherapy and surgeon experience. The complication hazard ratio or relative risk caused by these 2 factors was 1.976 and 1.680, respectively. One-stage reconstruction using Becker-type expanders is an appropriate, simple, and reliable option in delayed breast reconstruction in patients who have not received radiotherapy and as long as the procedure is carried out by surgeons skilled in the technique.

  15. Antibacterial Immune Competence of Honey Bees (Apis mellifera) Is Adapted to Different Life Stages and Environmental Risks

    PubMed Central

    Gätschenberger, Heike; Azzami, Klara; Tautz, Jürgen; Beier, Hildburg

    2013-01-01

    The development of all honey bee castes proceeds through three different life stages all of which encounter microbial infections to a various extent. We have examined the immune strength of honey bees across all developmental stages with emphasis on the temporal expression of cellular and humoral immune responses upon artificial challenge with viable Escherichia coli bacteria. We employed a broad array of methods to investigate defence strategies of infected individuals: (a) fate of bacteria in the haemocoel; (b) nodule formation and (c) induction of antimicrobial peptides (AMPs). Newly emerged adult worker bees and drones were able to activate efficiently all examined immune reactions. The number of viable bacteria circulating in the haemocoel of infected bees declined rapidly by more than two orders of magnitude within the first 4–6 h post-injection (p.i.), coinciding with the occurrence of melanised nodules. Antimicrobial activity, on the other hand, became detectable only after the initial bacterial clearance. These two temporal patterns of defence reactions very likely represent the constitutive cellular and the induced humoral immune response. A unique feature of honey bees is that a fraction of worker bees survives the winter season in a cluster mostly engaged in thermoregulation. We show here that the overall immune strength of winter bees matches that of young summer bees although nodulation reactions are not initiated at all. As expected, high doses of injected viable E.coli bacteria caused no mortality in larvae or adults of each age. However, drone and worker pupae succumbed to challenge with E.coli even at low doses, accompanied by a premature darkening of the pupal body. In contrast to larvae and adults, we observed no fast clearance of viable bacteria and no induction of AMPs but a rapid proliferation of E.coli bacteria in the haemocoel of bee pupae ultimately leading to their death. PMID:23799099

  16. Antibacterial immune competence of honey bees (Apis mellifera) is adapted to different life stages and environmental risks.

    PubMed

    Gätschenberger, Heike; Azzami, Klara; Tautz, Jürgen; Beier, Hildburg

    2013-01-01

    The development of all honey bee castes proceeds through three different life stages all of which encounter microbial infections to a various extent. We have examined the immune strength of honey bees across all developmental stages with emphasis on the temporal expression of cellular and humoral immune responses upon artificial challenge with viable Escherichia coli bacteria. We employed a broad array of methods to investigate defence strategies of infected individuals: (a) fate of bacteria in the haemocoel; (b) nodule formation and (c) induction of antimicrobial peptides (AMPs). Newly emerged adult worker bees and drones were able to activate efficiently all examined immune reactions. The number of viable bacteria circulating in the haemocoel of infected bees declined rapidly by more than two orders of magnitude within the first 4-6 h post-injection (p.i.), coinciding with the occurrence of melanised nodules. Antimicrobial activity, on the other hand, became detectable only after the initial bacterial clearance. These two temporal patterns of defence reactions very likely represent the constitutive cellular and the induced humoral immune response. A unique feature of honey bees is that a fraction of worker bees survives the winter season in a cluster mostly engaged in thermoregulation. We show here that the overall immune strength of winter bees matches that of young summer bees although nodulation reactions are not initiated at all. As expected, high doses of injected viable E.coli bacteria caused no mortality in larvae or adults of each age. However, drone and worker pupae succumbed to challenge with E.coli even at low doses, accompanied by a premature darkening of the pupal body. In contrast to larvae and adults, we observed no fast clearance of viable bacteria and no induction of AMPs but a rapid proliferation of E.coli bacteria in the haemocoel of bee pupae ultimately leading to their death.

  17. Theme: Coping with Competencies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Daniel; And Others

    1989-01-01

    Consists of five articles on the topic of competencies in vocational agriculture. Topics covered include (1) competency-based instruction, (2) competencies for agricultural recordkeeping, (3) competencies in hydroponics, and (4) competencies in agribusiness. (CH)

  18. Survival Rates for Thymus Cancer

    MedlinePlus

    ... Early Detection, Diagnosis, and Staging Survival Rates for Thymus Cancer Survival rates are often used by doctors ... Ask Your Doctor About Thymus Cancer? More In Thymus Cancer About Thymus Cancer Causes, Risk Factors, and ...

  19. Relationship influences on teachers’ perceptions of academic competence in academically at-risk minority and majority first grade students

    PubMed Central

    Hughes, Jan N.; Gleason, Katie A.; Zhang, Duan

    2010-01-01

    This study examined the associations among child demographic variables, teacher perceptions of parent–teacher and student–teacher relationship quality, and teacher perceptions of children’s academic abilities in an ethnically diverse sample of 607 academically at-risk first grade children. Relative to relationships with African American children and parents, teachers rated their relationships with White and Hispanic children and parents more positively. Measures of relationship quality added unique variance to teachers’ perceptions of children’s abilities, controlling for parent educational level and measured ability. Relationship variables fully mediated the association between African American status and teachers’ perceptions of children’s abilities. Implications of the findings for teacher in-service and professional development and for parent involvement programs are discussed. PMID:20401185

  20. KIR and HLA Genotypes are Associated with Disease Progression and Survival following Autologous Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation for High-Risk Neuroblastoma

    PubMed Central

    Venstrom, Jeffrey M.; Zheng, Junting; Noor, Nabila; Danis, Karen E.; Yeh, Alice W.; Cheung, Irene Y.; Dupont, Bo; O’Reilly, Richard J.; Cheung, Nai-Kong V.; Hsu, Katharine C.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose Natural killer (NK) cells exhibit cytotoxicity against neuroblastoma. Gene polymorphisms governing NK cell function, therefore, may influence prognosis. Two highly polymorphic genetic loci instrumental in determining NK cell responses encode the NK cell killer immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIR) and their class I human leukocyte antigen (HLA) ligands. We hypothesized that patients with a “missing ligand” KIR-HLA compound genotype may uniquely benefit from autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Experimental Design 169 patients treated with autologous HSCT for stage 4 neuroblastoma underwent KIR and HLA genotyping. Patients were segregated according to presence or absence of HLA ligands for autologous inhibitory KIR. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed for overall and progression-free survival. Results 64% of patients lacked one or more HLA ligands for inhibitory KIR. Patients lacking an HLA ligand had a 46% lower risk of death (HR 0.54; 95% CI, 0.35–0.85, P=.007) and a 34% lower risk of progression (HR 0.66; 95% CI, 0.44–1.0; P=.047) at 3 years compared with patients who possessed all ligands for his/her inhibitory KIR. Among all KIR-HLA combinations, 16 patients lacking the HLA-C1 ligand for KIR2DL2/2DL3 experienced the highest 3-year survival rate of 81% (95% CI: 64–100). Survival was more strongly associated with “missing ligand” than with tumor MYCN gene amplification. Conclusion KIR-HLA immunogenetics represents a novel prognostic marker for patients undergoing autologous HSCT for high-risk neuroblastoma. PMID:19934297

  1. Modelling Survival and Mortality Risk to 15 Years of Age for a National Cohort of Children with Serious Congenital Heart Defects Diagnosed in Infancy

    PubMed Central

    Knowles, Rachel L.; Bull, Catherine; Wren, Christopher; Wade, Angela; Goldstein, Harvey; Dezateux, Carol

    2014-01-01

    Background Congenital heart defects (CHDs) are a significant cause of death in infancy. Although contemporary management ensures that 80% of affected children reach adulthood, post-infant mortality and factors associated with death during childhood are not well-characterised. Using data from a UK-wide multicentre birth cohort of children with serious CHDs, we observed survival and investigated independent predictors of mortality up to age 15 years. Methods Data were extracted retrospectively from hospital records and death certificates of 3,897 children (57% boys) in a prospectively identified cohort, born 1992–1995 with CHDs requiring intervention or resulting in death before age one year. A discrete-time survival model accounted for time-varying predictors; hazards ratios were estimated for mortality. Incomplete data were addressed through multilevel multiple imputation. Findings By age 15 years, 932 children had died; 144 died without any procedure. Survival to one year was 79.8% (95% confidence intervals [CI] 78.5, 81.1%) and to 15 years was 71.7% (63.9, 73.4%), with variation by cardiac diagnosis. Importantly, 20% of cohort deaths occurred after age one year. Models using imputed data (including all children from birth) demonstrated higher mortality risk as independently associated with cardiac diagnosis, female sex, preterm birth, having additional cardiac defects or non-cardiac malformations. In models excluding children who had no procedure, additional predictors of higher mortality were younger age at first procedure, lower weight or height, longer cardiopulmonary bypass or circulatory arrest duration, and peri-procedural complications; non-cardiac malformations were no longer significant. Interpretation We confirm the high mortality risk associated with CHDs in the first year of life and demonstrate an important persisting risk of death throughout childhood. Late mortality may be underestimated by procedure-based audit focusing on shorter-term surgical

  2. HIV and infant feeding: to breastfeed or not to breastfeed: the dilemma of competing risks. Part 2.

    PubMed

    Morrison, P

    1999-11-01

    The discovery of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in breastmilk in 1985, and subsequent research, supports the hypothesis that breastfeeding provides a route of transmission to the nursing baby. Various routes of infection and relative rates of transmission have been studied in many parts of the world, leading to the blanket guideline that babies of HIV-infected mothers should not be breastfed, if a safe alternative can be provided. However, due to the limits inherent in various studies and various testing methods, the exact frequency of breastmilk transmission of HIV during the course of lactation remains unknown, and the conclusions drawn are thus conflicting and confusing. Replacement feeding of young babies with non-human milks and other foods may be hazardous in poverty-stricken populations in Africa and elsewhere, and still more research suggests that there are several properties in human milk that may provide specific protection to the baby of an infected mother. The possibility of providing the mother's own treated expressed breastmilk to the baby at risk of HIV infection via breastfeeding is an alternative which has yet to be fully explored and ways that this could be accomplished are examined. Those of us working with mothers and babies need more information before we can assist mothers living with HIV to make truly informed decisions about the safest way to feed their babies. Topics requiring urgent further attention are outlined.

  3. HIV and infant feeding: to breastfeed or not to breastfeed: the dilemma of competing risks. Part 1.

    PubMed

    Morrison, P

    1999-07-01

    The discovery of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in breastmilk in 1985, and subsequent research, supports the hypothesis that breastfeeding provides a route of transmission to the nursing baby. Various routes of infection and relative rates of transmission have been studied in many parts of the world, leading to the blanket guideline that babies of HIV-infected mothers should not be breastfed, if a safe alternative can be provided. However, due to the limits inherent in various studies and various testing methods, the exact frequency of breastmilk transmission of HIV during the course of lactation remains unknown, and the conclusions drawn are thus conflicting and confusing. Replacement feeding of young babies with non-human milks and other foods may be hazardous in poverty-stricken populations in Africa and elsewhere, and still more research suggests that there are several properties in human milk that may provide specific protection to the baby of an infected mother. The possibility of providing the mother's own treated expressed breastmilk to the baby at risk of HIV infection via breastfeeding is an alternative which has yet to be fully explored and ways that this could be accomplished are examined. Those of us working with mothers and babies need more information before we can assist mothers living with HIV to make truly informed decisions about the safest way to feed their babies. Topics requiring urgent further attention are outlined.

  4. Surviving crack: a qualitative study of the strategies and tactics developed by Brazilian users to deal with the risks associated with the drug

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Due to marginalization, trafficking violence, conflicts with the police and organic and social psychological problems associated with the drug, crack is one of the most devastating drugs currently in use. However, there is evidence that some users manage to stay alive and active while using crack cocaine for many years, despite the numerous adversities and risks involved with this behavior. In this context, the aim of the present study was to identify the strategies and tactics developed by crack users to deal with the risks associated with the culture of use by examining the survival strategies employed by long-term users. Method A qualitative research method was used involving semi-structured, in-depth interviews. Twenty-eight crack users fulfilling a pre-defined enrollment criterion were interviewed. This criterion was defined as the long-term use of crack (i.e., at least four years). The sample was selected using information provided by key informants and distributed across eight different supply chains. The interviews were literally transcribed and analyzed via content analysis techniques using NVivo-8 software. Results There was diversity in the sample with regard to economic and education levels. The average duration of crack use was 11.5 years. Respondents believed that the greatest risks of crack dependence were related to the drug's psychological effects (e.g., cravings and transient paranoid symptoms) and those arising from its illegality (e.g., clashes with the police and trafficking). Protection strategies focused on the control of the psychological effects, primarily through the consumption of alcohol and marijuana. To address the illegality of the drug, strategies were developed to deal with dealers and the police; these strategies were considered crucial for survival. Conclusions The strategies developed by the respondents focused on trying to protect themselves. They proved generally effective, though they involved risks of triggering

  5. Non-parametric estimation of the case fatality ratio with competing risks data: an application to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).

    PubMed

    Jewell, Nicholas P; Lei, Xiudong; Ghani, Azra C; Donnelly, Christl A; Leung, Gabriel M; Ho, Lai-Ming; Cowling, Benjamin J; Hedley, Anthony J

    2007-04-30

    For diseases with some level of associated mortality, the case fatality ratio measures the proportion of diseased individuals who die from the disease. In principle, it is straightforward to estimate this quantity from individual follow-up data that provides times from onset to death or recovery. In particular, in a competing risks context, the case fatality ratio is defined by the limiting value of the sub-distribution function, F(1)(t) = Pr(T infinity, where T denotes the time from onset to death (J = 1) or recovery (J = 2). When censoring is present, however, estimation of F(1)(infinity) is complicated by the possibility of little information regarding the right tail of F(1), requiring use of estimators of F(1)(t(*)) or F(1)(t(*))/(F(1)(t(*))+F(2)(t(*))) where t(*) is large, with F(2)(t) = Pr(T

  6. Germline BRCA Mutations Are Associated With Higher Risk of Nodal Involvement, Distant Metastasis, and Poor Survival Outcomes in Prostate Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Castro, Elena; Goh, Chee; Olmos, David; Saunders, Ed; Leongamornlert, Daniel; Tymrakiewicz, Malgorzata; Mahmud, Nadiya; Dadaev, Tokhir; Govindasami, Koveela; Guy, Michelle; Sawyer, Emma; Wilkinson, Rosemary; Ardern-Jones, Audrey; Ellis, Steve; Frost, Debra; Peock, Susan; Evans, D. Gareth; Tischkowitz, Marc; Cole, Trevor; Davidson, Rosemarie; Eccles, Diana; Brewer, Carole; Douglas, Fiona; Porteous, Mary E.; Donaldson, Alan; Dorkins, Huw; Izatt, Louise; Cook, Jackie; Hodgson, Shirley; Kennedy, M. John; Side, Lucy E.; Eason, Jacqueline; Murray, Alex; Antoniou, Antonis C.; Easton, Douglas F.; Kote-Jarai, Zsofia; Eeles, Rosalind

    2013-01-01

    Purpose To analyze the baseline clinicopathologic characteristics of prostate tumors with germline BRCA1 and BRCA2 (BRCA1/2) mutations and the prognostic value of those mutations on prostate cancer (PCa) outcomes. Patients and Methods This study analyzed the tumor features and outcomes of 2,019 patients with PCa (18 BRCA1 carriers, 61 BRCA2 carriers, and 1,940 noncarriers). The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression analysis were used to evaluate the associations between BRCA1/2 status and other PCa prognostic factors with overall survival (OS), cause-specific OS (CSS), CSS in localized PCa (CSS_M0), metastasis-free survival (MFS), and CSS from metastasis (CSS_M1). Results PCa with germline BRCA1/2 mutations were more frequently associated with Gleason ≥ 8 (P = .00003), T3/T4 stage (P = .003), nodal involvement (P = .00005), and metastases at diagnosis (P = .005) than PCa in noncarriers. CSS was significantly longer in noncarriers than in carriers (15.7 v 8.6 years, multivariable analyses [MVA] P = .015; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.8). For localized PCa, 5-year CSS and MFS were significantly higher in noncarriers (96% v 82%; MVA P = .01; HR = 2.6%; and 93% v 77%; MVA P = .009; HR = 2.7, respectively). Subgroup analyses confirmed the poor outcomes in BRCA2 patients, whereas the role of BRCA1 was not well defined due to the limited size and follow-up in this subgroup. Conclusion Our results confirm that BRCA1/2 mutations confer a more aggressive PCa phenotype with a higher probability of nodal involvement and distant metastasis. BRCA mutations are associated with poor survival outcomes and this should be considered for tailoring clinical management of these patients. PMID:23569316

  7. Clinical Outcomes among Children with Standard Risk Medulloblastoma Treated with Proton and Photon Radiotherapy: A Comparison of Disease Control and Overall Survival

    PubMed Central

    Eaton, Bree R; Esiashvili, Natia; Kim, Sungjin; Weyman, Elizabeth A.; Thornton, Lauren T.; Mazewski, Claire; MacDonald, Tobey; Ebb, David; MacDonald, Shannon M.; Tarbell, Nancy J.; Yock, Torunn

    2015-01-01

    Purpose/Objective(s) To compare long-term disease control and overall survival between children treated with proton and photon radiotherapy (RT) for standard risk medulloblastoma. Methods and Materials This multi-institution cohort study includes 88 children treated with chemotherapy and proton (n=45) or photon (n=43) RT between 2000 and 2009. Overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS) and patterns of failure were compared among the two cohorts. Results Median (range) age at diagnosis was 6 yrs (3 - 21) for proton pts vs. 8 yrs (3 -19) for photon pts (p=0.011). Cohorts were similar with respect to gender, histology, extent of surgical resection, craniospinal (CSI) RT dose, total RT dose, whether the RT boost was delivered to the posterior fossa (PF) or tumor bed (TB), time from surgery to RT start, or total duration of RT. RT consisted of a median (range) CSI dose of 23.4 Gy (18 - 27) and a boost of 30.6 Gy (27 - 37.8). Median (95% CI) f/up time is 6.2 yrs (5.1 – 6.6) for proton pts vs. 7.0 yrs (5.8 – 8.9) for photon pts. There was no significant difference in RFS or OS between pts treated with proton vs. photon RT: 6 yr RFS 78.8% vs. 76.5% (p=0.948) and 6 yr OS 82.0 vs. 87.6% (p=0.285). On multivariable analysis, there was a trend for longer RFS with female gender (p=0.058) and higher CSI dose (p=0.096), and for longer OS with female gender (p=0.093). Patterns of failure were similar among the two cohorts (p=0.908). Conclusions Disease control with proton and photon radiotherapy appears equivalent for standard risk medulloblastoma. PMID:26700707

  8. Effects of hatchery fish density on emigration, growth, survival, and predation risk of natural steelhead parr in an experimental stream channel

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tatara, Christopher P.; Riley, Stephen C.; Berejikian, Barry A.

    2011-01-01

    Hatchery supplementation of steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss raises concerns about the impacts on natural populations, including reduced growth and survival, displacement, and increased predation. The potential risks may be density dependent.We examined how hatchery stocking density and the opportunity to emigrate affect the responses of natural steelhead parr in an experimental stream channel and after 15 d found no density-dependent effects on growth, emigration, or survival at densities ranging from 1-6 hatchery parr/m2. The opportunity for steelhead parr to emigrate reduced predation by coastal cutthroat trout O. clarkii clarkii on both hatchery and natural steelhead parr. The cutthroat trout exhibited a type-I functional response (constant predation rate with increased prey density) for the hatchery and composite populations. In contrast, the predation rate on natural parr decreased as hatchery stocking density increased. Supplementation with hatchery parr at any experimental stocking density reduced the final natural parr density. This decline was explained by increased emigration fromthe supplemented groups. Natural parr had higher mean instantaneous growth rates than hatchery parr. The proportion of parr emigrating decreased as parr size increased over successive experimental trials. Smaller parr had lower survival and suffered higher predation. The final density of the composite population, a measure of supplementation effectiveness, increased with the hatchery steelhead stocking rate. Our results indicate that stocking larger hatchery parr (over 50 d postemergence) at densities within the carrying capacity would have low short-term impact on the growth, survival, and emigration of natural parr while increasing the density of the composite population; in addition, a stocking density greater than 3 fish/m2 might be a good starting point for the evaluation of parr stocking in natural streams.

  9. Increasing Sibling Relative Risk of Survival to Older and Older Ages and the Importance of Precise Definitions of “Aging,” “Life Span,” and “Longevity”

    PubMed Central

    Sebastiani, Paola; Nussbaum, Lisa; Andersen, Stacy L.; Black, Mara J.

    2016-01-01

    The lack of a formal definition of human longevity continues to generate confusion about its genetic and nongenetic determinants. In order to characterize how differences in birth year cohorts and percentiles of survival are associated with familial contribution to variation in survival, we estimated sibling relative risk of living to increasingly rare percentiles of survival based on a dataset of 1,917 validated sibships each containing at least one individual living to age 90 years. About 1,042 of the sibships included at least one individual who survived to age 100 and 511 included at least one individual who survived to age 105 and older. We show that sibling relative risk increases with older ages, sex, and earlier birth year cohorts of the proband and siblings of male 90-year-olds (5th percentile of survival) have 1.73 (95% CI: 1.5; 2.0) times the chance of living to age 90, while siblings of both male and female probands who survived to age 105 years (~0.01 percentile of survival) have 35.6 (95%CI: 15.1; 67.7) times the chance of living to age 105 compared with population controls. These results emphasize the importance of consistently defining the longevity phenotype in terms of rarity of survival for appropriate comparisons across studies. PMID:25814633

  10. Regions of acquired uniparental disomy at diagnosis of follicular lymphoma are associated with both overall survival and risk of transformation.

    PubMed

    O'Shea, Derville; O'Riain, Ciarán; Gupta, Manu; Waters, Rachel; Yang, Youwen; Wrench, David; Gribben, John; Rosenwald, Andreas; Ott, German; Rimsza, Lisa M; Holte, Harald; Cazier, Jean-Baptiste; Johnson, Nathalie A; Campo, Elias; Chan, Wing C; Gascoyne, Randy D; Young, Bryan D; Staudt, Louis M; Lister, T Andrew; Fitzgibbon, Jude

    2009-03-05

    Acquired homozygosity in the form of segmental acquired uniparental disomy (aUPD) has been described in follicular lymphoma (FL) and is usually due to mitotic recombination. SNP array analysis was performed with the use of the Affymetrix 10K 2.0 Gene-chip array on DNA from 185 diagnostic FL patients to assess the prognostic relevance of aUPD. Genetic abnormalities were detected in 118 (65%) of 182 patients. Number of abnormalities was predictive of outcome; more than 3 abnormalities was associated with inferior overall survival (OS; P < .03). Sites of recurrent aUPD were detected on 6p (n = 25), 16p (n = 22), 12q (n = 17), 1p36 (n = 14), 10q (n = 8), and 6q (n = 8). On multivariate analysis aUPD on 1p36 correlated with shorter OS (P = .05). aUPD on 16p was predictive of transformation (P = .03) and correlated with poorer progression-free survival (P = .02). aUPD is frequent at diagnosis of FL and affects probability of disease transformation and clinical outcome.

  11. High miR-24 expression is associated with risk of relapse and poor survival in acute leukemia

    PubMed Central

    ORGANISTA-NAVA, JORGE; GÓMEZ-GÓMEZ, YAZMÍN; ILLADES-AGUIAR, BERENICE; ALARCÓN-ROMERO, LUZ DEL CARMEN; SAAVEDRA-HERRERA, MÓNICA VIRGINIA; RIVERA-RAMÍREZ, ANA BERTHA; GARZÓN-BARRIENTOS, VÍCTOR HUGO; LEYVA-VÁZQUEZ, MARCO ANTONIO

    2015-01-01

    MicroRNAs (miRNAs) play an essential role in the development and progression of acute leukemia (AL). miR-24 promotes the survival of hematopoietic cells. However, little is known concerning the function of miR-24 in human AL. The aim of the present study was to investigate the clinical significance of miR-24 expression in AL. miR-24 expression in 147 patients with AL and 100 healthy individuals was measured by quantitative reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). The results showed that compared with the healthy individuals, the expression of miR-24 in AL patients was significantly higher (p<0.001). In addition, miR-24 was expressed at significantly higher levels in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients and at significantly lower levels in acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) (p<0.001). More importantly, Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that AL patients with high miR-24 expression tended to have shorter overall survival (p<0.05). In the multivariate analysis stratified for known prognostic variables, miR-24 was identified as an independent prognostic marker. Our data indicated that miR-24 upregulation was associated with poor prognosis in AL. miR-24 was identified for the first time as an independent marker for predicting the clinical outcome of AL patients. PMID:25672522

  12. Methodology to predict long-term cancer survival from short-term data using Tobacco Cancer Risk and Absolute Cancer Cure models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mould, R. F.; Lederman, M.; Tai, P.; Wong, J. K. M.

    2002-11-01

    Three parametric statistical models have been fully validated for cancer of the larynx for the prediction of long-term 15, 20 and 25 year cancer-specific survival fractions when short-term follow-up data was available for just 1-2 years after the end of treatment of the last patient. In all groups of cases the treatment period was only 5 years. Three disease stage groups were studied, T1N0, T2N0 and T3N0. The models are the Standard Lognormal (SLN) first proposed by Boag (1949 J. R. Stat. Soc. Series B 11 15-53) but only ever fully validated for cancer of the cervix, Mould and Boag (1975 Br. J. Cancer 32 529-50), and two new models which have been termed Tobacco Cancer Risk (TCR) and Absolute Cancer Cure (ACC). In each, the frequency distribution of survival times of defined groups of cancer deaths is lognormally distributed: larynx only (SLN), larynx and lung (TCR) and all cancers (ACC). All models each have three unknown parameters but it was possible to estimate a value for the lognormal parameter S a priori. By reduction to two unknown parameters the model stability has been improved. The material used to validate the methodology consisted of case histories of 965 patients, all treated during the period 1944-1968 by Dr Manuel Lederman of the Royal Marsden Hospital, London, with follow-up to 1988. This provided a follow-up range of 20- 44 years and enabled predicted long-term survival fractions to be compared with the actual survival fractions, calculated by the Kaplan and Meier (1958 J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 53 457-82) method. The TCR and ACC models are better than the SLN model and for a maximum short-term follow-up of 6 years, the 20 and 25 year survival fractions could be predicted. Therefore the numbers of follow-up years saved are respectively 14 years and 19 years. Clinical trial results using the TCR and ACC models can thus be analysed much earlier than currently possible. Absolute cure from cancer was also studied, using not only the prediction models which

  13. Hazagora: will you survive the next disaster? - A serious game to raise awareness about geohazards and disaster risk reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mossoux, S.; Delcamp, A.; Poppe, S.; Michellier, C.; Canters, F.; Kervyn, M.

    2016-01-01

    Natural disasters are too often presented as resulting from extreme natural phenomena affecting helpless populations, with people being insufficiently aware of the factors leading to disasters and of the existing strategies to mitigate their impacts. We developed a board game aimed at raising awareness about geohazards and disaster risk reduction strategies. The target groups are (1) secondary school students and citizens and (2) scientists and stakeholders involved in risk management activities. For the first group, the aim is to induce a better understanding of the geohazards and disasters they are confronted with in the media or in their daily lives; for the second, the objective is to generate discussion about risk management strategies. The game was tested with students in Belgium and with citizens, earth scientists, and risk managers in several African countries. Based on analysis of the most common game strategies observed, the players' reactions during the game, and their answers to a short questionnaire, we analyzed the main learning outcomes conveyed by this game. The game Hazagora appears to positively enhance the players' insights into processes involved in disasters. As such, the game is an effective, fun learning tool to introduce participants to the concepts of geohazards and disasters and to generate discussion.

  14. HAZAGORA: will you survive the next disaster? - a serious game to raise awareness about geohazards and disaster risk reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mossoux, S.; Delcamp, A.; Poppe, S.; Michellier, C.; Canters, F.; Kervyn, M.

    2015-09-01

    Natural disasters are too often presented as resulting from extreme natural phenomena affecting helpless populations, with people being insufficiently aware of the factors leading to disasters and of the existing strategies to mitigate their impacts. We developed a board game aimed at raising awareness about geohazards and disaster risk reduction strategies. The target groups are (1) secondary school students and citizens, and (2) scientists and stakeholders involved in risk management activities. For the first group, the aim is to induce a better understanding of geohazards and disasters they are confronted with in the media or in their daily life; for the second, the objective is to generate discussion about risk management strategies. The game was tested with students in Belgium and with citizens, earth scientists and risk managers in several African countries. Based on the game strategies analysis, the players' reactions during the game and their answers to a short questionnaire, we analyzed the main learning outcomes conveyed by this game. The Hazagora game appears to positively enhance the players' insight in processes involved in disasters. As such, the game is an effective playful learning tool to introduce participants to the concept of geohazard and disaster and to generate discussion.

  15. Risk factors among people surviving out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and their thoughts about what lifestyle means to them: a mixed methods study

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The known risk factors for coronary heart disease among people prior suffering an out-of-hospital cardiac arrest with validated myocardial infarction aetiology and their thoughts about what lifestyle means to them after surviving have rarely been described. Therefore the aim of the study was to describe risk factors and lifestyle among survivors. Methods An explanatory mixed methods design was used. All people registered in the Northern Sweden MONICA myocardial registry between the year 1989 to 2007 who survived out-of-hospital cardiac arrest with validated myocardial infarction aetiology and were alive at the 28th day after the onset of symptoms (n = 71) were included in the quantitative analysis. Thirteen of them participated in interviews conducted in 2011 and analysed via a qualitative manifest content analysis. Results About 60% of the people had no history of ischemic heart disease before the out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, but 20% had three cardiovascular risk factors (i.e., hypertension, diabetes mellitus, total cholesterol of more or equal 5 mmol/l or taking lipid lowering medication, and current smoker). Three categories (i.e., significance of lifestyle, modifying the lifestyle to the new life situation and a changed view on life) and seven sub-categories emerged from the qualitative analysis. Conclusions For many people out-of-hospital cardiac arrest was the first symptom of coronary heart disease. Interview participants were well informed about their cardiovascular risk factors and the benefits of risk factor treatment. In spite of that, some chose to ignore this knowledge to some extent and preferred to live a “good life”, where risk factor treatment played a minor part. The importance of the support of family members in terms of feeling happy and having fun was highlighted by the interview participants and expressed as being the meaning of lifestyle. Perhaps the person with illness together with health care workers should focus

  16. Risk Factors for Mortality among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients Following Antiretroviral Therapy in Southwestern Ethiopia: An Assessment through Survival Models

    PubMed Central

    Seyoum, Dinberu; Degryse, Jean-Marie; Kifle, Yehenew Getachew; Taye, Ayele; Tadesse, Mulualem; Birlie, Belay; Banbeta, Akalu; Rosas-Aguirre, Angel; Duchateau, Luc; Speybroeck, Niko

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: Efforts have been made to reduce HIV/AIDS-related mortality by delivering antiretroviral therapy (ART) treatment. However, HIV patients in resource-poor settings are still dying, even if they are on ART treatment. This study aimed to explore the factors associated with HIV/AIDS-related mortality in Southwestern Ethiopia. Method: A non-concurrent retrospective cohort study which collected data from the clinical records of adult HIV/AIDS patients, who initiated ART treatment and were followed between January 2006 and December 2010, was conducted, to explore the factors associated with HIV/AIDS-related mortality at Jimma University Specialized Hospital (JUSH). Survival times (i.e., the time from the onset of ART treatment to the death or censoring) and different characteristics of patients were retrospectively examined. A best-fit model was chosen for the survival data, after the comparison between native semi-parametric Cox regression and parametric survival models (i.e., exponential, Weibull, and log-logistic). Result: A total of 456 HIV patients were included in the study, mostly females (312, 68.4%), with a median age of 30 years (inter-quartile range (IQR): 23–37 years). Estimated follow-up until December 2010 accounted for 1245 person-years at risk (PYAR) and resulted in 66 (14.5%) deaths and 390 censored individuals, representing a median survival time of 34.0 months ( IQR: 22.8–42.0 months). The overall mortality rate was 5.3/100 PYAR: 6.5/100 PYAR for males and 4.8/100 PYAR for females. The Weibull survival model was the best model for fitting the data (lowest AIC). The main factors associated with mortality were: baseline age (>35 years old, AHR = 3.8, 95% CI: 1.6–9.1), baseline weight (AHR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.90–0.97), baseline WHO stage IV (AHR = 6.2, 95% CI: 2.2–14.2), and low adherence to ART treatment (AHR = 4.2, 95% CI: 2.5–7.1). Conclusion: An effective reduction in HIV/AIDS mortality could be achieved through timely ART

  17. Surviving the sex trade: a comparison of HIV risk behaviours among street-involved women in two Canadian cities who inject drugs.

    PubMed

    Spittal, P M; Bruneau, J; Craib, K J P; Miller, C; Lamothe, F; Weber, A E; Li, K; Tyndall, M W; O'Shaughnessy, M V; Schechter, M T

    2003-04-01

    In Canada, very little is known about the factors and processes that cause drug-related harm among female intravenous drug users (IDUs). Women who inject drugs and participate in the survival sex trade are considered to be at increased risk for sexual and drug-related harms, including HIV infection. Between September 1999 and September 2000, women participating in the VIDUS cohort in Vancouver and the St. Luc Cohort in Montreal completed interviewer-administered questionnaires. Analyses were conducted to compare the demographic characteristics, sexual risk behaviours, risky injection practices and drug use patterns among women who self-identified as participating in the sex trade with those who did not identify as participating in the sex trade. Logistic regression was used to identify factors independently associated with exchanging sex for money or drugs. HIV prevalence at the study visit (September 1999-2000) was 29% for sex trade workers and 29.2% for non-sex trade workers. While patterns of sexual risk were similar, the risky injection practice and drug use patterns between sex trade workers and non-sex trade workers were markedly different. Logistic regression analysis of cross-sectional data revealed that independent behaviours associated with the sex trade included: greater than once per day use of heroin (adjusted OR 2.7), smokeable crack cocaine (adjusted OR = 3.3) and borrowing used syringes (adjusted OR = 2.0). Creative, client-driven interventions are urgently needed for women who trade sex for money or for drugs.

  18. Expression of FGFR3 and FGFR4 and clinical risk factors associated with progression-free survival in synovial sarcoma.

    PubMed

    Charbonneau, Bridget; Vogel, Rachel Isaksson; Manivel, J Carlos; Rizzardi, Anthony; Schmechel, Stephen C; Ognjanovic, Simona; Subramanian, Subbaya; Largaespada, David; Weigel, Brenda

    2013-09-01

    Although rare, synovial sarcoma (SS) is one of the most common soft tissue sarcomas affecting young adults. To investigate potential tumor markers related to synovial sarcoma prognosis, we carried out a single-institution retrospective analysis of 103 patients diagnosed with SS between 1980 and 2009. Clinical outcome data were obtained from medical records, and archived tissue samples were used to evaluate the relationship between progression-free survival (PFS) and several prognostic factors, including tumor expression of FGFR3 and FGFR4. No associations were found between PFS and gender, body mass index, tumor site, SS18-SSX translocation, or FGFR4 expression. As seen in previous studies, age at diagnosis (<35, 63% versus ≥35 years, 31% 10-year PFS; P = .033), histologic subtype (biphasic, 75% versus monophasic 34% 10-year PFS; P = .034), and tumor size (≤5 cm, 70% versus >5 cm, 22% 10-year PFS; P < .0001) were associated with PFS in SS patients. In addition, in a subset of patients with available archived tumor samples taken prior to chemotherapy or radiation (n = 34), higher FGFR3 expression was associated with improved PFS (P = .030). To the best of our knowledge, this is the largest study of SS to date to suggest a potential clinical role for FGFR3. While small numbers make this investigation somewhat exploratory, the findings merit future investigation on a larger scale.

  19. Religious competence as cultural competence

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Definitions of cultural competence often refer to the need to be aware and attentive to the religious and spiritual needs and orientations of patients. However, the institution of psychiatry maintains an ambivalent attitude to the incorporation of religion and spirituality into psychiatric practice. This is despite the fact that many patients, especially those from underserved and underprivileged minority backgrounds, are devotedly religious and find much solace and support in their religiosity. I use the case of mental health of African Americans as an extended example to support the argument that psychiatric services must become more closely attuned to religious matters. I suggest ways in which this can be achieved. Attention to religion can aid in the development of culturally competent and accessible services, which in turn, may increase engagement and service satisfaction among religious populations. PMID:22421686

  20. KAZAN: Will you survive the next geodisaster? An educational game for raising awareness about geohazards and risk reduction strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mossoux, Sophie; Delcamp, Audray; Poppe, Sam; Kervyn, Matthieu

    2015-04-01

    Natural disasters remain too often presented in the media as the results from extreme natural phenomena affecting helpless people. School students and stakeholders, especially in developing countries, have a limited awareness of the different components of disasters and of the complementary strategies existing to mitigate their impacts. Using the specific example of the Ngazidja Island (Comoros), we developed and tested a new board game aiming at raising awareness about geohazards (i.e. earthquake, tsunami, lava flow, volcanic ash fall). This game highlights the various and spatially-variable geohazard impacts on the exposed population, the key role played by livelihood strategies and the access to natural resources in controlling long term impacts, and the capacity of a community to act in reducing its vulnerability to natural hazards. The target public of this game are 1. secondary school students, 2. scientists and stakeholders involved to some degree in risk management activities, and 3. people exposed to these hazards. For the first group, the aim is to allow them to better interpret the disaster to which they are confronted in the media, whereas for the second group, the objective is to generate discussion about the efficiency and complementarity of contrasted risk management strategies. The objective for the last group is to help them to understand the hazard to which they are confronted in order to be better prepared. In this contribution, we will present the game board and the implemented rules. This game was tested with several groups of secondary school students in Belgium and with geologists and risk managers in Tanzania and in the Comores. On the basis of the analysis of the game strategies developed by the players, their reactions during the game and their answers to a short questionnaire, we analyse the main learning outcomes that are conveyed by this game. We compare these outcomes with key elements of the risk management, focusing on geohazards in

  1. Long-term event-free and overall survival after risk-adapted melphalan and SCT for systemic light chain amyloidosis

    PubMed Central

    Landau, H; Smith, M; Landry, C; Chou, J F; Devlin, S M; Hassoun, H; Bello, C; Giralt, S; Comenzo, R L

    2017-01-01

    Stem cell transplantation (SCT), an effective therapy for amyloid light chain (AL) amyloidosis patients, is associated with low treatment-related mortality (TRM) with appropriate patient selection and risk-adapted dosing of melphalan (RA-SCT). Consolidation after SCT increases hematologic complete response (CR) rates and may improve overall survival (OS) for patients with survival (EFS) with RA-SCT was 4.04 years (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.41–5.01 years); median OS was 10.4 years (95% CI: 7.3–not achieved). Patients with CR at 12 months after SCT had significantly longer EFS (P=0.01) and OS (P=0.04). In a multivariate analysis, melphalan dose had no impact on EFS (P=0.26) or OS (P=0.11). For selected patients, RA-SCT was safe and was associated with extended long-term survival. With the availability of novel agents for consolidation, RA-SCT remains a very effective and important backbone treatment for AL amyloidosis. PMID:27560108

  2. ENSO, Nest Predation Risk, Food Abundance, and Male Status Fail to Explain Annual Variations in the Apparent Survival Rate of a Migratory Songbird

    PubMed Central

    Vernouillet, Alizée; Villard, Marc-André; Haché, Samuel

    2014-01-01

    Adult mortality can be a major driver of population decline in species whose productivity is relatively low. Yet, little is known about the factors influencing adult survival rates in migratory bird species, nor do we know much about the longer-term effects of habitat disturbance on the fitness of individuals. The Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla) is one of the vertebrate species most sensitive to forest management, yet it is still common and widespread. We monitored the fate of 330 colour-banded Ovenbird males in four pairs of 25-ha plots during 9 successive breeding seasons. One plot of each pair was treated through selection harvesting (30–40% basal area removed) during the first winter. We tested the following hypotheses: (1) higher physiological costs in harvested plots as a result of lower food abundance will reduce apparent survival rate (ASR) relative to controls; (2) lower ASR following years with low nest survival and higher probability of renesting; (3) fluctuations in ASR reflecting El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and (4) higher ASR in returning males than in recruits (unbanded immigrants) owing to greater site familiarity in the former. We tested the relative importance of these hypotheses, or combinations thereof, by generating 23 models explaining variation in ASR. The year-dependent model received the most support, showing a 41% decrease in ASR from 2007 to 2014. The important year-to-year variation we observed in ASR (Σwi = 0.99) was not explained by variation in nest predation risk nor by ENSO. There was also little evidence for an effect of selection harvesting on ASR of Ovenbird males, despite a slight reduction in lifespan relative to males from control plots (2.7 vs 2.9 years). An avenue worth exploring to explain this intriguing pattern would be to determine whether conditions at migratory stopover sites or in the wintering area of our focal population have gradually worsened over the past decade. PMID:25419839

  3. ENSO, nest predation risk, food abundance, and male status fail to explain annual variations in the apparent survival rate of a migratory songbird.

    PubMed

    Vernouillet, Alizée; Villard, Marc-André; Haché, Samuel

    2014-01-01

    Adult mortality can be a major driver of population decline in species whose productivity is relatively low. Yet, little is known about the factors influencing adult survival rates in migratory bird species, nor do we know much about the longer-term effects of habitat disturbance on the fitness of individuals. The Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla) is one of the vertebrate species most sensitive to forest management, yet it is still common and widespread. We monitored the fate of 330 colour-banded Ovenbird males in four pairs of 25-ha plots during 9 successive breeding seasons. One plot of each pair was treated through selection harvesting (30-40% basal area removed) during the first winter. We tested the following hypotheses: (1) higher physiological costs in harvested plots as a result of lower food abundance will reduce apparent survival rate (ASR) relative to controls; (2) lower ASR following years with low nest survival and higher probability of renesting; (3) fluctuations in ASR reflecting El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and (4) higher ASR in returning males than in recruits (unbanded immigrants) owing to greater site familiarity in the former. We tested the relative importance of these hypotheses, or combinations thereof, by generating 23 models explaining variation in ASR. The year-dependent model received the most support, showing a 41% decrease in ASR from 2007 to 2014. The important year-to-year variation we observed in ASR (Σw(i) = 0.99) was not explained by variation in nest predation risk nor by ENSO. There was also little evidence for an effect of selection harvesting on ASR of Ovenbird males, despite a slight reduction in lifespan relative to males from control plots (2.7 vs 2.9 years). An avenue worth exploring to explain this intriguing pattern would be to determine whether conditions at migratory stopover sites or in the wintering area of our focal population have gradually worsened over the past decade.

  4. Association with pregnancy increases the risk of local recurrence but does not impact overall survival in breast cancer: A case-control study of 87 cases.

    PubMed

    Genin, A S; De Rycke, Y; Stevens, D; Donnadieu, A; Langer, A; Rouzier, R; Lerebours, F

    2016-12-01

    Pregnancy-associated breast cancer (PABC) constitutes 7% of all BCs in young women. The prognosis of PABC remains controversial. In this study, we evaluated the impact of the association of pregnancy with BC on the rates of overall survival (OS), disease free survival (DFS), and distant and local recurrence-free survival. We conducted a retrospective unicenter case-control study. We enrolled PABC patients treated at our institution between 1992 and 2009. For each case, 2 BC controls were matched for age and year of diagnosis. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to assess the parameters associated with prognosis. Eighty-seven PABC patients were enrolled and matched with 174 controls. The univariate analysis did not reveal any significant differences in OS, DFS or distant recurrence rates between the 2 groups. Pregnancy associated status, a tumor larger than T2 and neoadjuvant chemotherapy as the primary treatment were significantly associated with an increased risk of local relapse. The multivariate analysis showed that the pregnancy associated status and the tumor size were strong prognostic factors of local recurrence. Pregnancy associated status negates the prognostic value of tumor size, as both T0-T2 and T3-T4 PABC patients have the same poor prognosis as control BC patients with T3-T4 tumors. Interestingly, although PABC patients have more locally advanced tumors, they did not have a higher rate of radical surgery than the control BC patients. Pregnancy associated status is a strong prognostic factor of local relapse in BC. In PABC patients, when possible, radical surgery should be the preferred first treatment step.

  5. Predicting risk of entry into foster care from early childhood experiences: A survival analysis using LONGSCAN data.

    PubMed

    English, Diana J; Thompson, Richard; White, Catherine Roller

    2015-07-01

    This study examined whether a multi-domain model of maltreatment informed by an ecological framework-including factors related to the child, caregiver, family, neighborhood, and dimensions of maltreatment experience-predicted entry into foster care between the ages of 4 and 18 among children with no prior foster care experience. To determine which factors predict entry into foster care, secondary data analyses were conducted utilizing a sub-sample from LONGSCAN (Longitudinal Studies of Child Abuse and Neglect) of 942 children and their primary caregivers. Results demonstrate that there are important predictors for entry into out-of-home placement across multiple ecological domains. Characteristics related to child, caregiver, and family characteristics, and neighborhood context, as well as dimensions of maltreatment (particularly emotional maltreatment), predicted risk of placement in out-of-home care. Implications for child welfare practice are discussed. This examination of the effects of multiple ecological domains adds to our understanding of children's risk of removal and entry into out-of-home placement.

  6. Sorafenib therapy following resection prolongs disease-free survival in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma at a high risk of recurrence

    PubMed Central

    Liao, Yadi; Zheng, Yun; He, Wei; Li, Qijiong; Shen, Jingxian; Hong, Jian; Zou, Ruhai; Qiu, Jiliang; Li, Binkui; Yuan, Yunfei

    2017-01-01

    Sorafenib is the standard systemic treatment for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC); however, its therapeutic value in patients with HCC following resection remains controversial. The current retrospective study was undertaken to assess the effects of sorafenib treatment following surgical resection in patients with advanced HCC disease who were at a high risk for recurrence. Between July 2010 and July 2013, a consecutive cohort of 42 patients with advanced HCC and at a high risk of recurrence (i.e., those with portal vein tumor thrombosis, adjacent organ involvement or tumor rupture) who underwent resection were analyzed. The patients were categorized into the sorafenib group (n=14) or the best supportive care (BSC) group (n=28). Although the histological grade, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Stage, tumor size, nodule number and proportion of patients with high serum α-fetoprotein levels were comparable between the sorafenib and BSC groups, those receiving sorafenib following resection had significantly longer disease-free survival (DFS) of 5.2 months [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.2–9.2 months] compared with the BSC group [1.8 months (95% CI, 0.6–3.0 months)]. No differences in overall survival were noted between the groups. Furthermore, no drug-related adverse events resulted in discontinuation of sorafenib therapy. Univariate log-rank analysis revealed that sorafenib treatment (P=0.002) and treatment prior to resection (P=0.012) were significantly associated with longer DFS; however, sorafenib therapy (P=0.027) and tumor size (P=0.028) were associated with longer DFS by multivariate analysis. Furthermore, sorafenib was well-tolerated and improved DFS in patients with advanced HCC who underwent hepatic resection. Thus, tumor resection followed by sorafenib therapy may represent an effective therapeutic strategy for patients with advanced HCC. This possibility should be confirmed in larger, multicenter studies. PMID:28356989

  7. Multiple functional SNPs in differentially expressed genes modify risk and survival of non-small cell lung cancer in chinese female non-smokers.

    PubMed

    Fang, Xue; Yin, Zhihua; Li, Xuelian; Xia, Lingzi; Quan, Xiaowei; Zhao, Yuxia; Zhou, Baosen

    2017-01-27

    DNA genotype can affect gene expression, and gene expression can influence the onset and progression of diseases. Here we conducted a comprehensive study, we integrated analysis of gene expression profile and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) microarray data in order to scan out the critical genetic changes that participate in the onset and development of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Gene expression profile datasets were downloaded from the GEO database. Firstly, differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between NSCLC samples and adjacent normal samples were identified. Next, by STRING database, protein-protein interaction (PPI) network was constructed. At the same time, hub genes in PPI network were identified. Then, some functional SNPs in hub genes that may affect gene expression have been annotated. Finally, we carried a study to explore the relationship between functional SNPs and NSCLC risk and overall survival in Chinese female non-smokers. A total of 488 DEGs were identified in our study. There are 29 proteins with a higher degree of connectivity in the PPI network, including FOS, IL6 and MMP9. By using database annotation, we got 8 candidate functional SNPs that may affect the expression level of hub proteins. In the case-control study, we found that rs4754-T allele, rs959173-C allele and rs2239144-G allele were the protective allele of NSCLC risk. In dominant model, rs4754-CT+TT genotype were associated with a shorter survival time. In general, our study provides a novel research direction in the field of multi-omic data integration, and helps us find some critical genetic changes in disease.

  8. Integrating Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Assay With Clinical Parameters Improves Risk Classification for Relapse and Survival in Head-and-Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

    SciTech Connect

    Chung, Christine H.; Hammond, Elizabeth M.; Trotti, Andy M.; Wang Huijun; Spencer, Sharon; Zhang Huazhong; Cooper, Jay; Jordan, Richard; Rotman, Marvin H.; Ang, K. Kian

    2011-10-01

    Purpose: Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) overexpression has been consistently found to be an independent predictor of local-regional relapse (LRR) after radiotherapy. We assessed the extent by which it can refine risk classification for overall survival (OS) and LRR in patients with head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Methods and Materials: EGFR expression in locally advanced HNSCC was measured by immunohistochemistry in a series of patients randomized to receive accelerated or conventional radiation regimens in a Phase III trial. Subsequently, data of the two series were pooled (N = 533) for conducting a recursive partitioning analysis that incorporated clinical parameters (e.g., performance status, primary site, T and N categories) and four molecular markers (EGFR, p53, Ki-67, and microvessel density). Results: This study confirmed that patients with higher than median levels of tumor EGFR expression had a lower OS (relative risk [RR]: 1.90, p = 0.0010) and a higher LRR (RR: 1.91, p = 0.0163). Of the four markers analyzed, only EGFR was found to contribute to refining classification of patients into three risk classes with distinct OS and LRR outcomes. The addition of EGFR to three clinical parameters could identify patients having up to a fivefold difference in the risk of LRR. Conclusions: Adding pretreatment EGFR expression data to known robust clinical prognostic variables improved the estimation of the probability for OS and LRR after radiotherapy. Its use for stratifying or selecting patients with defined tumor feature and pattern of relapse for enrollment into clinical trials testing specific therapeutic strategy warrants further investigation.

  9. Risk factors for skeletal-related events (SREs) and factors affecting SRE-free survival for nonsmall cell lung cancer patients with bone metastases.

    PubMed

    Ulas, Arife; Bilici, Ahmet; Durnali, Ayse; Tokluoglu, Saadet; Akinci, Sema; Silay, Kamile; Oksuzoglu, Berna; Alkis, Necati

    2016-01-01

    Skeletal-related events (SREs) for nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with bone metastasis lead to serious morbidity. The aim of this study was to determine risk factors for SREs in NSCLC patients with bone metastasis and the factors influencing SRE-free survival and overall survival (OS). From 2000 to 2012, we evaluated retrospectively 835 NSCLC patients. Three hundred and thirty-five of them with bone metastasis were included in the study. SREs and the other prognostic factors were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analysis for SRE-free survival and OS. SREs were detected in 244 patients (72.8 %). The most common SREs were the need for radiotherapy (43.2 %) and malignant hypercalcemia (17.6 %). The median time to first SRE was 3.5 months at the median follow-up of 17 months. A multivariate analysis showed that the presence of bone metastasis at diagnosis (p < 0.001), the number of bone metastasis (p = 0.001), baseline hypercalcemia (p = 0.004), and the presence of palliative radiotherapy (p = 0.04) were independent prognostic factors for SRE-free survival. A logistic regression analysis identified that the presence of bone metastasis at diagnosis [odds ratio (OR), 12.6], number of bone metastasis (OR, 3.05), and baseline hypercalcemia (OR, 0.33) were found to be predictive factors in the developing of SRE. The median OS time for patients with SRE was worse than that for patients without SRE (7 vs 12 months, respectively). For OS, male gender, ECOG performance status (PS), high lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level, hypoalbuminemia, the presence of bone metastasis at diagnosis, the number of bone metastasis, the presence of SREs, the presence of bisphosphonate therapy, and palliative radiotherapy were independent prognostic indicators for OS by the multivariate analysis. Our results indicated that the frequency of SREs was high and the presence of bone metastasis at the time of diagnosis, baseline hypercalcemia, and multiple bone

  10. Downregulation of microRNA-139 is associated with hepatocellular carcinoma risk and short-term survival.

    PubMed

    Li, Tao; Yin, Jikai; Yuan, Lijuan; Wang, Shouli; Yang, Lin; Du, Xilin; Lu, Jianguo

    2014-04-01

    MicroRNAs (miRNAs) have been frequently reported to be diagnostic biomarkers and prognostic factors for cancer. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the clinical significance of microRNA-139 (miRNA-139) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). All 31 patients enrolled in the present study had received curative hepatectomy. The objective miRNA was determined using miRNA microarray. The miRNA-139 expression level in cancerous tissue specimens was measured by means of reverse transcription and quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and compared with that in 31 corresponding peritumoral non-cancerous tissues. Plasma miRNA-139 expression was also quantified. The diagnostic value of plasma miRNA-139 for differentiating patients with HCC from the ones with chronic HBV-hepatitis (CH) was analyzed. The miRNA microarray performed in 3 pairs of tissue specimens determined miRNA-139 was downregulated (p=0.017). Compared with plasma of chronic HBV-hepatitis, miRNA-139 was lowly expressed in plasma of HCC patients (p<0.010). ROC analysis of plasma miRNA-139 yielded an AUC of 0.764 (p<0.010) with sensitivity of 80.6% and specificity of 58.1% while differentiating HCC from chronic HBV-hepatitis. The diagnostic power of serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) was also evaluated. The combination of miRNA-139 and AFP improved the differentiating power. Subsequently, 31 HCC patients were divided into the low or high expression group based on plasma miRNA-139 level. Plasma miRNA‑139 expression was correlated with serum AFP (p=0.043), Edmondson-Steiner grading (p=0.038). In addition, there was a significant difference in the 1-year survival rates between the two groups (p=0.023). miRNA‑139 was downregulated in the cancerous tissue and plasma of HCC patients. Plasma miRNA‑139 is a diagnostic biomarker and prognostic factor for HCC.

  11. Risk Factors for Survival following Open Surgical Repair of Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms: A 13-Year Experience

    PubMed Central

    Ozen, Anil; Hanedan, Muhammet Onur; Songur, Çetin Murat; Boysan, Emre; Unal, Ertekin Utku; Mola, Serkan; Erkengel, Halil Ibrahim; Kubat, Emre; Iscan, Zafer; Tutun, Ufuk; Sarıtas, Ahmet; Birincioglu, Cemal Levent

    2015-01-01

    Background: Surgical treatment of a ruptured abdominal aorta aneurysm (RAAA) continues to present a significant challenge to surgeons. There are some patient factors such as age and gender that cannot be changed, and comorbid conditions can be optimized but not eliminated. The purpose of this study was to identify the risk factors affecting high mortality after the surgical repair of an RAAA. Methods: Data on 121 patients who underwent surgical repair for RAAAs between January 1997 and June 2011 in our institution were collected retrospectively. All the patients had been diagnosed by computed tomography (CT) scans, and intraoperative extra-luminal blood was visualized intraoperatively. Variables studied comprised demographic data; preoperative, operative, and postoperative data; and the causes of mortality. Multivariate regression analysis was used to determine the predictors of mortality. Results: One hundred eight (89.2%) patients were male and 13 (10.7%) were female at an average age of 68.9 ± 10.5 years. Totally, 121 patients underwent surgery for RAAAs. Fifty-four patients had aortic tube grafts, 32 aortobiiliac grafts, 20 aortobifemoral grafts, 1 aortoiliac graft, and 1 aortofemoral graft for the replacement of the RAAAs. Seven patients had only surgical exploration. Operative mortality was 41.3% (50 patients). The factors associated with mortality were preoperative shock, free blood, positive inotropic agent, hematocrit value, and need for blood and plasma. In the multivariate analysis, preoperative shock and positive inotropic agents were found to be significant as the predictors of death (OR: 19.8, 95%CI: 3.2-122.8 and OR: 8.6, 95% CI: 2.9-26.3, respectively). Conclusion: This study revealed that the preoperative clinical findings affected the mortality associated with RAAAs. PMID:26697083

  12. Competing-risk analysis of death and dialysis initiation among elderly (≥80 years) newly referred to nephrologists: a French prospective study

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Reasons underlying dialysis decision-making in Octogenarians and Nonagenarians have not been further explored in prospective studies. Methods This regional, multicentre, non-interventional and prospective study was aimed to describe characteristics and quality of life (QoL) of elderly (≥80 years of age) with advanced chronic kidney disease (stage 3b-5 CKD) newly referred to nephrologists. Predictive factors of death and dialysis initiation were also assessed using competing-risk analyses. Results All 155 included patients had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) below 45 ml/min/1.73 m2. Most patients had a non anaemic haemoglobin level (Hb) with no iron deficiency, and normal calcium and phosphate levels. They were well-fed and had a normal cognitive function and a good QoL. The 3-year probabilities of death and dialysis initiation reached 27% and 11%, respectively. The leading causes of death were cardiovascular (32%), cachexia (18%), cancer (9%), infection (3%), trauma (3%), dementia (3%), and unknown (32%). The reasons for dialysis initiation were based on uncontrolled biological abnormalities, such as hyperkalemia or acidosis (71%), uncontrolled digestive disorders (35%), uncontrolled pulmonary or peripheral oedema (29%), and uncontrolled malnutrition (12%). No patients with acute congestive heart failure or cancer initiated dialysis. Predictors of death found in both multivariate regression models (Cox and Fine & Gray) included acute congestive heart failure, age, any walking impairment and Hb <10 g/dL. Regarding dialysis initiation, eGFR <23 mL/min/1.73 m2 was the only predictor found in the Cox multivariate regression model whereas eGFR <23 mL/min/1.73 m2 and diastolic blood pressure were both independently associated with dialysis initiation in the Fine & Gray analysis. Such findings suggested that death and dialysis were independent events. Conclusions Octogenarians and Nonagenarians newly referred to nephrologists by

  13. Modeling the survival of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in apple cider using probability distribution functions for quantitative risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Duffy, S; Schaffner, D W

    2001-05-01

    Outbreaks of foodborne illness from apple cider have prompted research on the survival of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in this food. Published results vary widely, potentially due to differences in E. coli O157:H7 strains, enumeration media, and other experimental considerations. We developed probability distribution functions for the change in concentration of E. coli O157:H7 (log CFU/day) in cider using data from scientific publications for use in a quantitative risk assessment. Six storage conditions (refrigeration [4 to 5 degrees C]; temperature abuse [6 to 10 degrees C]; room temperature [20 to 25 degrees C]; refrigerated with 0.1% sodium benzoate, 0.1% potassium sorbate, or both) were modeled. E. coli survival rate data for all three unpreserved cider storage conditions were highly peaked, and these data were fit to logistic distributions: ideal refrigeration, logistic (-0.061, 0.13); temperature abuse, logistic (-0.0982, 0.23); room temperature, logistic (-0.1, 0.29) and uniform (-4.3, -1.8), to model the very small chance of extremely high log CFU reductions. There were fewer published studies on refrigerated, preserved cider, and these smaller data sets were modeled with beta (4.27, 2.37) x 2.2 - 1.6, normal (-0.2, 0.13), and gamma (1.45, 0.6) distributions, respectively. Simulations were run to show the effect of storage on E. coli O157:H7 during the shelf life of apple cider. Under every storage condition, with and without preservatives, there was an overall decline in E. coli O157:H7 populations in cider, although a small fraction of the time a slight increase was seen.

  14. Geriatric Assessment to Predict Survival and Risk of Serious Adverse Events in Elderly Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Patients: A Multicenter Study in China

    PubMed Central

    Zhong, Yu-Ping; Zhang, Yi-Zhuo; Liao, Ai-Jun; Li, Su-Xia; Tian, Chen; Lu, Jin

    2017-01-01

    Background: Elderly multiple myeloma (MM) patients often tend to suffer a variety of diseases, so the treatment of choice is very difficult for the elderly myeloma patients. The overall survival (OS) time and side effects with elderly patients are unclear in China. The study tried to find out the role of geriatric assessment in the Chinese elderly MM. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the data of 628 newly diagnosed patients from six hospitals from June 2011 to June 2013. A geriatric assessment had been performed to assess comorbidities, cognitive, and physical status for these patients. The primary endpoint was to evaluate different physical states of elderly patients with OS time and treatment-related side effects. Results: An additive scoring system (range: 0–5), based on age, Katz's Activity of Daily Living (ADL) and Lawton's Instrumental Activity of Daily Living (IADL) ≤5 and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) was developed to identify three groups: fit (score = 0); intermediate-fitness (score = 1); and frail (score ≥2). The 3-year OS was 63% in fit patients, 63% in intermediate-fitness patients, and 49% in frail patients ≥3 hematologic adverse events (AEs) were documented in 45 (35.4%) fit, 34 (34%) intermediate-fitness, and 121 (30.2%) frail patients. The risk of a grade ≥3 hematologic AEs was not significantly increase in intermediate-fitness (hazard ratios [HR]: 0.99, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.54–1.47, P = 1.000) and in frail patients (HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 0.70–1.93, P = 0.558) compared with fit ones. Conclusions: MM occurs earlier in life and being advanced when the diagnosis is made in the mainland of China. The overall survival in frailty with International Staging System (ISS) II/III was the worst in all patients. PMID:28091402

  15. Distinguishing Low-Risk Luminal A Breast Cancer Subtypes with Ki-67 and p53 Is More Predictive of Long-Term Survival.

    PubMed

    Lee, Se Kyung; Bae, Soo Youn; Lee, Jun Ho; Lee, Hyun-Chul; Yi, Hawoo; Kil, Won Ho; Lee, Jeong Eon; Kim, Seok Won; Nam, Seok Jin

    2015-01-01

    Overexpression of p53 is the most frequent genetic alteration in breast cancer. Recently, many studies have shown that the expression of mutant p53 differs for each subtype of breast cancer and is associated with different prognoses. In this study, we aimed to determine the suitable cut-off value to predict the clinical outcome of p53 overexpression and its usefulness as a prognostic factor in each subtype of breast cancer, especially in luminal A breast cancer. Approval was granted by the Institutional Review Board of Samsung Medical Center. We analyzed a total of 7,739 patients who were surgically treated for invasive breast cancer at Samsung Medical Center between Dec 1995 and Apr 2013. Luminal A subtype was defined as ER&PR + and HER2- and was further subclassified according to Ki-67 and p53 expression as follows: luminal A (Ki-67-,p53-), luminal A (Ki-67+, p53-), luminal A (Ki-67 -, p53+) and luminal A (Ki-67+, p53+). Low-risk luminal A subtype was defined as negative for both Ki-67 and p53 (luminal A [ki-67-, p53-]), and others subtypes were considered to be high-risk luminal A breast cancer. A cut-off value of 10% for p53 was a good predictor of clinical outcome in all patients and luminal A breast cancer patients. The prognostic role of p53 overexpression for OS and DFS was only significant in luminal A subtype. The combination of p53 and Ki-67 has been shown to have the best predictive power as calculated by the area under curve (AUC), especially for long-term overall survival. In this study, we have shown that overexpression of p53 and Ki-67 could be used to discriminate low-risk luminal A subtype in breast cancer. Therefore, using the combination of p53 and Ki-67 expression in discriminating low-risk luminal A breast cancer may improve the prognostic power and provide the greatest clinical utility.

  16. An Exploratory Study of the Relationship among Perceived Personal and Social Competence, Health Risk Behaviors, and Academic Achievement of Selected Undergraduate Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rhodes, Darson L.

    2009-01-01

    A sample of 656 undergraduate students from multiple sections of an introductory nutrition course, a personal health course, and a physical fitness course at a large Midwestern University completed one of four surveys. Using matrix sampling, each participant completed a survey measuring one of four personal and social competence constructs; coping…

  17. Air pollution and survival within the Washington University-EPRI Veterans Cohort: risks based on modelled estimates of ambient levels of hazardous and criteria air pollutants

    SciTech Connect

    Frederick W. Lipfert; Ronald E. Wyzga; Jack D. Baty; J. Philip Miller

    2009-04-15

    For this paper, we considered relationships between mortality, vehicular traffic density, and ambient levels of 12 hazardous air pollutants, elemental carbon (EC), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), and sulfate (SO{sub 4}{sup -2}). These pollutant species were selected as markers for specific types of emission sources, including vehicular traffic, coal combustion, smelters, and metal-working industries. Pollutant exposures were estimated using emissions inventories and atmospheric dispersion models. We analyzed associations between county ambient levels of these pollutants and survival patterns among approximately 70,000 U.S. male veterans by mortality period (1976-2001 and subsets), type of exposure model, and traffic density level. We found significant associations between all-cause mortality and traffic-related air quality indicators and with traffic density per se, with stronger associations for benzene, formaldehyde, diesel particulate, NOx, and EC. The maximum effect on mortality for all cohort subjects during the 26-yr follow-up period is approximately 10%, but most of the pollution-related deaths in this cohort occurred in the higher-traffic counties, where excess risks approach 20%. However, mortality associations with diesel particulates are similar in high- and low-traffic counties. Sensitivity analyses show risks decreasing slightly over time and minor differences between linear and logarithmic exposure models. We conclude that tailpipe emissions of both gases and particles are among the most significant and robust predictors of mortality in this cohort and that most of those associations have weakened over time. There may be concerns associated with large stationary sources burning coal, residual fuel oil and municipal solid wastes. Nickel and arsenic have been identified in coal fly ash and residual oil. 81 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs.

  18. Causal inference in survival analysis using pseudo-observations.

    PubMed

    Andersen, Per K; Syriopoulou, Elisavet; Parner, Erik T

    2017-04-06

    Causal inference for non-censored response variables, such as binary or quantitative outcomes, is often based on either (1) direct standardization ('G-formula') or (2) inverse probability of treatment assignment weights ('propensity score'). To do causal inference in survival analysis, one needs to address right-censoring, and often, special techniques are required for that purpose. We will show how censoring can be dealt with 'once and for all' by means of so-called pseudo-observations when doing causal inference in survival analysis. The pseudo-observations can be used as a replacement of the outcomes without censoring when applying 'standard' causal inference methods, such as (1) or (2) earlier. We study this idea for estimating the average causal effect of a binary treatment on the survival probability, the restricted mean lifetime, and the cumulative incidence in a competing risks situation. The methods will be illustrated in a small simulation study and via a study of patients with acute myeloid leukemia who received either myeloablative or non-myeloablative conditioning before allogeneic hematopoetic cell transplantation. We will estimate the average causal effect of the conditioning regime on outcomes such as the 3-year overall survival probability and the 3-year risk of chronic graft-versus-host disease. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Survival by Stage of Soft Tissue Sarcoma

    MedlinePlus

    ... Detection, Diagnosis, and Staging Survival by Stage of Soft Tissue Sarcoma Survival rates are often used by ... Your Doctor About Soft Tissue Sarcomas? More In Soft Tissue Sarcoma About Soft Tissue Sarcoma Causes, Risk ...

  20. Using health promotion competencies for curriculum development in higher education.

    PubMed

    Madsen, Wendy; Bell, Tanya

    2012-03-01

    Health promotion core competencies are used for a variety of reasons. Recently there have been moves to gain international consensus regarding core competencies within health promotion. One of the main reasons put forward for having core competencies is to guide curriculum development within higher education institutions. This article outlines the endeavours of one institution to develop undergraduate and postgraduate curricula around the Australian core competencies for health promotion practitioners. It argues that until core competencies have been agreed upon internationally, basing curricula on these carries a risk associated with change. However, delaying curricula until such risks are ameliorated decreases opportunities to deliver dynamic and current health promotion education within higher institutions.

  1. [From management competencies to nurse managerial competencies].

    PubMed

    Furukawa, Patrícia de Oliveira; Cunha, Isabel Cristina Kowal Olm

    2010-01-01

    This article is a literature review that aimed to collect more information about the competencies management, understand the concepts of profile and competencies in the managing people; understand the issue of professional competence and its relationship with the organization's competencies; and finally identify the managerial competencies necessary to work of the nurse on the aspect of the labor market. The literature showed that the concept of competence shows great results when applied in the people management arena. It also can provide in the context of health services, benefits for the organizations and for the professionals and patients. For that, it's required that health services to take the ownership of this knowledge as possibility to achieve better results, as well as educational institutions and nurses that seek for information and training to achieve the challenges of the profession and the labor market.

  2. Androgen-deprivation therapy does not impact cause-specific or overall survival after permanent prostate brachytherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Merrick, Gregory S. . E-mail: gmerrick@wheelinghospital.com; Butler, Wayne M.; Wallner, Kent E.; Galbreath, Robert W.; Allen, Zachariah A. M.S.; Adamovich, Edward

    2006-07-01

    Purpose: To determine if androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) has an impact on cause-specific, biochemical progression-free, or overall survival after prostate brachytherapy. Methods and Materials: From April 1995 through June 2002, 938 consecutive patients underwent brachytherapy for clinical Stage T1b to T3a (2002 AJCC) prostate cancer. All patients underwent brachytherapy more than 3 years before analysis. A total of 382 patients (40.7%) received ADT with a duration of 6 months or less in 277 and more than 6 months in 105. The median follow-up was 5.4 years. Multiple clinical, treatment, and dosimetric parameters were evaluated as predictors of cause-specific, biochemical progression-free, and overall survival. Results: The 10-year cause-specific, biochemical progression-free, and overall survival rates for the entire cohort were 96.4%, 95.9%, and 78.1%, respectively. Except for biochemical progression-free survival in high-risk patients, ADT did not statistically impact any of the three survival categories. A Cox linear-regression analysis demonstrated that Gleason score was the best predictor of cause-specific survival, whereas percent-positive biopsies, prostate volume, and risk group predicted for biochemical progression-free survival. Patient age and tobacco use were the strongest predictors of overall survival. One hundred two patients have died, with 80 of the deaths a result of cardiovascular disease (54) and second malignancies (26). To date, only 12 patients have died of metastatic prostate cancer. Conclusions: After brachytherapy, androgen-deprivation therapy did not have an impact on cause-specific or overall survival for any risk group; however, ADT had a beneficial effect on biochemical progression-free survival in high-risk patients. Cardiovascular disease and second malignancies far outweighed prostate cancer as competing causes of death.

  3. Turkmen Language Competencies for Peace Corps Volunteers in Turkmenistan.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tyson, David; Clark, Larry

    This textbook is designed for use by Peace Corps volunteers learning Turkmen in preparation for serving in Turkmenistan. It takes a competency-based approach to language learning, focusing on specific tasks the learner will need to accomplish through language. Some competencies are related to work tasks and others to survival needs or social…

  4. Russian Language Competencies for Peace Corps Volunteers in Russia.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Strobykina, Irina; Fomenko, Nataliya

    This Peace Corps volunteer language training manual is based on the experience of two pre-service trainings and was guided by the Peace Corps language training curriculum. The learning approach is competency-based or topic-oriented to provide survival competencies. Three main sections review phonetics, topics for discussion, and practical grammar…

  5. Candidate germline polymorphisms of genes belonging to the pathways of four drugs used in osteosarcoma standard chemotherapy associated with risk, survival and toxicity in non-metastatic high-grade osteosarcoma

    PubMed Central

    Hattinger, Claudia M.; Biason, Paola; Iacoboni, Erika; Gagno, Sara; Fanelli, Marilù; Tavanti, Elisa; Vella, Serena; Ferrari, Stefano; Roli, Andrea; Roncato, Rossana; Giodini, Luciana; Scotlandi, Katia; Picci, Piero; Toffoli, Giuseppe; Serra, Massimo

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to identify associations between germline polymorphisms and risk of high-grade osteosarcoma (HGOS) development, event-free survival (EFS) and toxicity in HGOS patients treated with neo-adjuvant chemotherapy and surgery. Germline polymorphisms of 31 genes known to be relevant for transport or metabolism of all four drugs used in HGOS chemotherapy (methotrexate, doxorubicin, cisplatin and ifosfamide) were genotyped in 196 patients with HGOS and in 470 healthy age and gender-matched controls. Of these 196 HGOS patients, a homogeneously treated group of 126 patients was considered for survival analyses (survival cohort). For 57 of these, treatment-related toxicity data were available (toxicity cohort). Eleven polymorphisms were associated with increased risk of developing HGOS (p < 0.05). The distribution of polymorphisms in patients was characterized by a higher Shannon entropy. In the survival cohort (n = 126, median follow-up = 126 months), genotypes of ABCC2_1249A/G, GGH_452T/C, TP53_IVS2+38G/C and CYP2B6*6 were associated with EFS (p < 0.05). In the toxicity cohort (n = 57), genotypes of ABCB1_1236T/C, ABCC2_1249A/G, ABCC2_3972A/G, ERCC1_8092T/G, XPD_23591A/G, XRCC3_18067T/C, MTHFR_1298A/C and GGH_16T/C were associated with elevated risk for toxicity development (p < 0.05). The results obtained in this retrospective study indicate that the aforementioned germline polymorphisms significantly impact on the risk of HGOS development, EFS and the occurrence of chemotherapy-related toxicity. These findings should be prospectively validated with the aim of optimizing and tailoring HGOS treatment in the near future. PMID:27566557

  6. Competing Risk Analysis of Neurologic versus Nonneurologic Death in Patients Undergoing Radiosurgical Salvage After Whole-Brain Radiation Therapy Failure: Who Actually Dies of Their Brain Metastases?

    SciTech Connect

    Lucas, John T.; Colmer, Hentry G.; White, Lance; Fitzgerald, Nora; Isom, Scott; Bourland, John D.; Laxton, Adrian W.; Tatter, Stephen B.; Chan, Michael D.

    2015-08-01

    Purpose: To estimate the hazard for neurologic (central nervous system, CNS) and nonneurologic (non-CNS) death associated with patient, treatment, and systemic disease status in patients receiving stereotactic radiosurgery after whole-brain radiation therapy (WBRT) failure, using a competing risk model. Patients and Methods: Of 757 patients, 293 experienced recurrence or new metastasis following WBRT. Univariate Cox proportional hazards regression identified covariates for consideration in the multivariate model. Competing risks multivariable regression was performed to estimate the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for both CNS and non-CNS death after adjusting for patient, disease, and treatment factors. The resultant model was converted into an online calculator for ease of clinical use. Results: The cumulative incidence of CNS and non-CNS death at 6 and 12 months was 20.6% and 21.6%, and 34.4% and 35%, respectively. Patients with melanoma histology (relative to breast) (aHR 2.7, 95% CI 1.5-5.0), brainstem location (aHR 2.1, 95% CI 1.3-3.5), and number of metastases (aHR 1.09, 95% CI 1.04-1.2) had increased aHR for CNS death. Progressive systemic disease (aHR 0.55, 95% CI 0.4-0.8) and increasing lowest margin dose (aHR 0.97, 95% CI 0.9-0.99) were protective against CNS death. Patients with lung histology (aHR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.9) and progressive systemic disease (aHR 2.14, 95% CI 1.5-3.0) had increased aHR for non-CNS death. Conclusion: Our nomogram provides individual estimates of neurologic death after salvage stereotactic radiosurgery for patients who have failed prior WBRT, based on histology, neuroanatomical location, age, lowest margin dose, and number of metastases after adjusting for their competing risk of death from other causes.

  7. Persistent poor long-term prognosis of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients surviving invasive aspergillosis

    PubMed Central

    Salmeron, Géraldine; Porcher, Raphaël; Bergeron, Anne; Robin, Marie; de Latour, Régis Peffault; Ferry, Christèle; Rocha, Vanderson; Petropoulou, Anna; Xhaard, Aliénor; Lacroix, Claire; Sulahian, Annie; Socié, Gérard; Ribaud, Patricia

    2012-01-01

    Background Voriconazole treatment increases early survival of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients with invasive aspergillosis. We investigated whether this survival advantage translates into an increased long-term survival. Design and Methods This retrospective study involved all patients with an invasive aspergillosis diagnosis transplanted between September 1997 and December 2008, at the Saint-Louis Hospital, Paris, France. The primary end point was survival up to 36 months. Survival analysis before and after 12 weeks, as well as cumulative incidence analysis in a competing risk framework, were used to assess the effect of voriconazole treatment and other factors on mortality. Results Among 87 patients, 42 received first-line voriconazole and 45 received another antifungal agent. Median survival time was 2.6 months and survival rate at 36 months was 18%. Overall, there was a significant difference in the survival rates of the two groups. Specifically, there was a dramatic difference in survival rates up to ten months post-aspergillosis diagnosis but no significant difference after this time. Over the first 36 months as a whole, no significant difference in survival rate was observed between the two groups. First-line voriconazole significantly reduced aspergillosis-attributable mortality. However, first-line voriconazole patients experienced a significantly higher probability of death from a non-aspergillosis-attributable cause. Conclusions Although the prognosis for invasive aspergillosis after stem cell transplantation has dramatically improved with the use of voriconazole, this major advance in care does not translate into increased long-term survival for these severely immunocompromised patients. PMID:22371177

  8. Survival and prognosis among 1545 patients with contemporary polycythemia vera: an international study

    PubMed Central

    Tefferi, A; Rumi, E; Finazzi, G; Gisslinger, H; Vannucchi, A M; Rodeghiero, F; Randi, M L; Vaidya, R; Cazzola, M; Rambaldi, A; Gisslinger, B; Pieri, L; Ruggeri, M; Bertozzi, I; Sulai, N H; Casetti, I; Carobbio, A; Jeryczynski, G; Larson, D R; Müllauer, L; Pardanani, A; Thiele, J; Passamonti, F; Barbui, T

    2013-01-01

    Under the auspices of an International Working Group, seven centers submitted diagnostic and follow-up information on 1545 patients with World Health Organization-defined polycythemia vera (PV). At diagnosis, median age was 61 years (51% females); thrombocytosis and venous thrombosis were more frequent in women and arterial thrombosis and abnormal karyotype in men. Considering patients from the center with the most mature follow-up information (n=337 with 44% of patients followed to death), median survival (14.1 years) was significantly worse than that of the age- and sex-matched US population (P<0.001). In multivariable analysis, survival for the entire study cohort (n=1545) was adversely affected by older age, leukocytosis, venous thrombosis and abnormal karyotype; a prognostic model that included the first three parameters delineated risk groups with median survivals of 10.9–27.8 years (hazard ratio (HR), 10.7; 95% confidence interval (CI): 7.7–15.0). Pruritus was identified as a favorable risk factor for survival. Cumulative hazard of leukemic transformation, with death as a competing risk, was 2.3% at 10 years and 5.5% at 15 years; risk factors included older age, abnormal karyotype and leukocytes ⩾15 × 109/l. Leukemic transformation was associated with treatment exposure to pipobroman or P32/chlorambucil. We found no association between leukemic transformation and hydroxyurea or busulfan use. PMID:23739289

  9. Competency-based training: who benefits?

    PubMed

    Brightwell, Alexandra; Grant, Janet

    2013-02-01

    Competency based training describes progression through training referenced to the demonstrated ability to perform certain tasks. In recent years, this has become the dominant curriculum model. We seek to examine who benefits from a competency based approach to medical education. For the regulators and service, the apparent advantage is in terms of apparent measurable accountability and flexibility. For assessors, the promise of competence based assessments in the workplace to provide a reliable and objective measurement of a trainee's performance has not been demonstrated in practice. For the doctor in training, there is very little evidence to show benefit from competency based training. Competency based training places emphasis on individual skills rather than overall learning experience thus risks diminishing the role of the trainee in the workplace. Any form of medical education that devalues workplace based learning will ultimately harm the profession and, in turn, patient care.

  10. What is Gillick competence?

    PubMed Central

    Griffith, Richard

    2016-01-01

    This article considers the requirements for Gillick competence, it highlights the factors that must be considered when determining whether a child is competent to give consent to treatment. PMID:26619366

  11. Competencies: A New Sector.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brophy, Monica; Kiely, Tony

    2002-01-01

    Job analysis of managers in 42 Irish three-star hotels identified the following key management competencies and associated behavioral indicators. The results were used to develop a competency framework for management development. (Contains 29 references.) (SK)

  12. Competencies in Science Teaching

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mathelitsch, Leopold

    2013-01-01

    The role of competencies is discussed with respect to science teaching. In particular, competence models from Germany, Switzerland and Austria are presented and compared. A special topical program, "Competencies in Mathematics and Science Teaching", was started in Austria three years ago. Initial experiences with this program are…

  13. Vitamin D receptor polymorphisms and survival in patients with cutaneous melanoma: a population-based study

    PubMed Central

    Orlow, Irene; Reiner, Anne S.; Thomas, Nancy E.; Roy, Pampa; Kanetsky, Peter A.; Luo, Li; Paine, Susan; Armstrong, Bruce K.; Kricker, Anne; Marrett, Loraine D.; Rosso, Stefano; Zanetti, Roberto; Gruber, Stephen B.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Gallagher, Richard P.; Dwyer, Terence; Busam, Klaus; Begg, Colin B.; Berwick, Marianne

    2016-01-01

    Factors known to affect melanoma survival include age at presentation, sex and tumor characteristics. Polymorphisms also appear to modulate survival following diagnosis. Result from other studies suggest that vitamin D receptor (VDR) polymorphisms (SNPs) impact survival in patients with glioma, renal cell carcinoma, lung, breast, prostate and other cancers; however, a comprehensive study of VDR polymorphisms and melanoma-specific survival is lacking. We aimed to investigate whether VDR genetic variation influences survival in patients with cutaneous melanoma. The analysis involved 3566 incident single and multiple primary melanoma cases enrolled in the international population-based Genes, Environment, and Melanoma Study. Melanoma-specific survival outcomes were calculated for each of 38 VDR SNPs using a competing risk analysis after adjustment for covariates. There were 254 (7.1%) deaths due to melanoma during the median 7.6 years follow-up period. VDR SNPs rs7299460, rs3782905, rs2239182, rs12370156, rs2238140, rs7305032, rs1544410 (BsmI) and rs731236 (TaqI) each had a statistically significant (trend P values < 0.05) association with melanoma-specific survival in multivariate analysis. One functional SNP (rs2239182) remained significant after adjustment for multiple testing using the Monte Carlo method. None of the SNPs associated with survival were significantly associated with Breslow thickness, ulceration or mitosis. These results suggest that the VDR gene may influence survival from melanoma, although the mechanism by which VDR exerts its effect does not seem driven by tumor aggressiveness. Further investigations are needed to confirm our results and to understand the relationship between VDR and survival in the combined context of tumor and host characteristics. PMID:26521212

  14. Vitamin D receptor polymorphisms and survival in patients with cutaneous melanoma: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Orlow, Irene; Reiner, Anne S; Thomas, Nancy E; Roy, Pampa; Kanetsky, Peter A; Luo, Li; Paine, Susan; Armstrong, Bruce K; Kricker, Anne; Marrett, Loraine D; Rosso, Stefano; Zanetti, Roberto; Gruber, Stephen B; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Gallagher, Richard P; Dwyer, Terence; Busam, Klaus; Begg, Colin B; Berwick, Marianne

    2016-01-01

    Factors known to affect melanoma survival include age at presentation, sex and tumor characteristics. Polymorphisms also appear to modulate survival following diagnosis. Result from other studies suggest that vitamin D receptor (VDR) polymorphisms (SNPs) impact survival in patients with glioma, renal cell carcinoma, lung, breast, prostate and other cancers; however, a comprehensive study of VDR polymorphisms and melanoma-specific survival is lacking. We aimed to investigate whether VDR genetic variation influences survival in patients with cutaneous melanoma. The analysis involved 3566 incident single and multiple primary melanoma cases enrolled in the international population-based Genes, Environment, and Melanoma Study. Melanoma-specific survival outcomes were calculated for each of 38 VDR SNPs using a competing risk analysis after adjustment for covariates. There were 254 (7.1%) deaths due to melanoma during the median 7.6 years follow-up period. VDR SNPs rs7299460, rs3782905, rs2239182, rs12370156, rs2238140, rs7305032, rs1544410 (BsmI) and rs731236 (TaqI) each had a statistically significant (trend P values < 0.05) association with melanoma-specific survival in multivariate analysis. One functional SNP (rs2239182) remained significant after adjustment for multiple testing using the Monte Carlo method. None of the SNPs associated with survival were significantly associated with Breslow thickness, ulceration or mitosis. These results suggest that the VDR gene may influence survival from melanoma, although the mechanism by which VDR exerts its effect does not seem driven by tumor aggressiveness. Further investigations are needed to confirm our results and to understand the relationship between VDR and survival in the combined context of tumor and host characteristics.

  15. Long-term mortality in mothers with perinatal losses and risk modification by surviving children and attained education: a population-based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Halland, Frode; Morken, Nils-Halvdan; DeRoo, Lisa A; Klungsøyr, Kari; Wilcox, Allen J; Skjærven, Rolv

    2016-01-01

    Objective To assess the association between perinatal losses and mother's long-term mortality and modification by surviving children and attained education. Design A population-based cohort study. Setting Norwegian national registries. Participants We followed 652 320 mothers with a first delivery from 1967 and completed reproduction before 2003, until 2010 or death. We excluded mothers with plural pregnancies, without information on education (0.3%) and women born outside Norway. Main outcome measures Main outcome measures were age-specific (40–69 years) cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular mortality. We calculated mortality in mothers with perinatal losses, compared with mothers without, and in mothers with one loss by number of surviving children in strata of mothers’ attained education (<11 years (low), ≥11 years (high)). Results Mothers with perinatal losses had increased crude mortality compared with mothers without; total: HR 1.3 (95% CI 1.3 to 1.4), cardiovascular: HR 1.8 (1.5 to 2.1), non-cardiovascular: HR 1.3 (1.2 to 1.4). Childless mothers with one perinatal loss had increased mortality compared with mothers with one child and no loss; cardiovascular: low education HR 2.7 (1.7 to 4.3), high education HR 0.91 (0.13 to 6.5); non-cardiovascular: low education HR 1.6 (1.3 to 2.2), high education HR 1.8 (1.1 to 2.9). Mothers with one perinatal loss, surviving children and high education had no increased mortality, whereas corresponding mothers with low education had increased mortality; cardiovascular: two surviving children HR 1.7 (1.2 to 2.4), three or more surviving children HR 1.6 (1.1 to 2.4); non-cardiovascular: one surviving child HR 1.2 (1.0 to 1.5), two surviving children HR 1.2 (1.1 to 1.4). Conclusions Irrespective of education, we find excess mortality in childless mothers with a perinatal loss. Increased mortality in mothers with one perinatal loss and surviving children was limited to mothers with low education. PMID:27884847

  16. Specific scoring systems to predict survival of patients with high-risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) and de novo acute myeloid leukemia (AML) after intensive antileukemic treatment based on results of the EORTC-GIMEMA AML-10 and intergroup CRIANT studies.

    PubMed

    Oosterveld, Margriet; Suciu, Stefan; Muus, Petra; Germing, Ulrich; Delforge, Michel; Belhabri, Amin; Aul, Carlo; Selleslag, Dominik; Ferrant, Augustin; Marie, Jean-Pierre; Amadori, Sergio; Jehn, Ulrich; Mandelli, Franco; Hess, Uwe; Hellström-Lindberg, Eva; Cakmak-Wollgast, Songuel; Vignetti, Marco; Labar, Boris; Willemze, Roel; de Witte, Theo

    2015-01-01

    High-risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) patients have usually a less favorable outcome after intensive treatment compared with de novo acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients. This may reflect different disease-related and patient-related factors. The purpose of this analysis is to identify disease-specific prognostic factors and to develop prognostic scores for both patient groups. A total of 692 patients in the EORTC/GIMEMA AML-10 study and 289 patients in the CRIANT study received identical remission-induction and consolidation treatment. Estimated 5-year survival rate was 34 % in the AML-10 versus 27 % in the CRIANT study, and estimated disease-free survival was 40 % versus 28 %, respectively. In multivariate analysis, cytogenetic characteristics, white blood count, and age appeared prognostic for survival in both studies. French-American-British (FAB) subtype and performance status were prognostic in the AML-10 study only, whereas number of cytopenias and duration of antecedent hematologic disorder >6 months were prognostic in the CRIANT study only. The prognostic scores distinguish three groups with a 5-year survival rate of 54, 38, and 19 % in the AML-10 study versus 69, 37, and 5 % in the CRIANT study. The prognostic value of these scores has been validated on two external series. The new scoring systems form a practical tool to predict the outcome of individual MDS and AML patients treated with intensive antileukemic therapy.

  17. Eating Competence: Definition and Evidence for the Satter Eating Competence Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Satter, Ellyn

    2007-01-01

    The evidence- and practice-based Satter Eating Competence Model (ecSatter) outlines an inclusive definition of the interrelated spectrum of eating attitudes and behaviors. The model is predicated on the utility and effectiveness of biopsychosocial processes: hunger and the drive to survive, appetite and the need for subjective reward and the…

  18. Risk of Early Onset Substance Use among Students with and without Mild Academic Disabilities: Results of a Discrete-Time Survival Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kepper, Annelies; Koning, Ina; Vollebergh, Wilma; Monshouwer, Karin

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated the age of onset of substance use among 536 students with mild academic disabilities and 906 students without academic disabilities, and the extent to which emotional, conduct, and hyperactivity problems explain the differences between these two groups. Using discrete-time survival analysis, the results of this study showed…

  19. Investigation on circular asymmetry of geographical distribution in cancer mortality of Hiroshima atomic bomb survivors based on risk maps: analysis of spatial survival data.

    PubMed

    Tonda, Tetsuji; Satoh, Kenichi; Otani, Keiko; Sato, Yuya; Maruyama, Hirofumi; Kawakami, Hideshi; Tashiro, Satoshi; Hoshi, Masaharu; Ohtaki, Megu

    2012-05-01

    While there is a considerable number of studies on the relationship between the risk of disease or death and direct exposure from the atomic bomb in Hiroshima, the risk for indirect exposure caused by residual radioactivity has not yet been fully evaluated. One of the reasons is that risk assessments have utilized estimated radiation doses, but that it is difficult to estimate indirect exposure. To evaluate risks for other causes, including indirect radiation exposure, as well as direct exposure, a statistical method is described here that evaluates risk with respect to individual location at the time of atomic bomb exposure instead of radiation dose. In addition, it is also considered to split the risks into separate risks due to direct exposure and other causes using radiation dose. The proposed method is applied to a cohort study of Hiroshima atomic bomb survivors. The resultant contour map suggests that the region west to the hypocenter has a higher risk compared to other areas. This in turn suggests that there exists an impact on risk that cannot be explained by direct exposure.

  20. Effectiveness of azacitidine in unselected high-risk myelodysplastic syndromes: results from the Spanish registry.

    PubMed

    Bernal, T; Martínez-Camblor, P; Sánchez-García, J; de Paz, R; Luño, E; Nomdedeu, B; Ardanaz, M T; Pedro, C; Amigo, M L; Xicoy, B; del Cañizo, C; Tormo, M; Bargay, J; Valcárcel, D; Brunet, S; Benlloch, L; Sanz, G

    2015-09-01

    The benefit of azacitidine treatment in survival of high-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) patients compared with conventional care treatment (CCT) has not been established outside clinical trials. To assess its effectiveness, we compared overall survival (OS) between azacitidine and conventional treatment (CCT) in high-risk MDS patients, excluding those undergoing stem cell transplantation, submitted to the Spanish MDS registry from 2000 to 2013. Several Cox regression and competing risk models, considering azacitidine as a time-dependent covariate, were used to assess survival and acute myeloblastic leukemia (AML) progression. Among 821 patients included, 251 received azacitidine. Median survival was 13.4 (11.8-16) months for azacitidine-treated patients and 12.2 (11-14.1) for patients under CCT (P=0.41). In a multivariate model, age, International prognostic scoring system and lactate dehydrogenase were predictors of OS whereas azacitidine was not (adjusted odds ratio 1.08, 95% confidence interval 0.86-1.35, P=0.49). However, in patients with chromosome 7 abnormalities, a trend toward a better survival was observed in azacitidine-treated patients (median survival 13.3 (11-18) months) compared with CCT (median survival 8.6 (5-10.4) months, P=0.08). In conclusion, our data show that, in spite of a widespread use of azacitidine, there is a lack of improvement in survival over the years. Identification of predicting factors of response and survival is mandatory.

  1. Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

  2. Prospective validation of a risk score based on biological markers for predicting progression free survival in Binet stage A chronic lymphocytic leukemia patients: results of the multicenter O-CLL1-GISL study.

    PubMed

    Gentile, Massimo; Cutrona, Giovanna; Mosca, Laura; Matis, Serena; Fabris, Sonia; Lionetti, Marta; Ilariucci, Fiorella; Zupo, Simona; Musolino, Caterina; Levato, Luciano; Molica, Stefano; Di Raimondo, Francesco; Vincelli, Iolanda; Di Rienzo, Nicola; Pesce, Emanuela Anna; Angrilli, Francesco; Federico, Massimo; Neri, Antonino; Ferrarini, Manlio; Morabito, Fortunato

    2014-07-01

    A risk score based on three biological features (CD38, ZAP-70, and IGHV mutational status) was previously developed to predict progression-free survival (PFS) in untreated Binet A CLL patients. Here we perform a score validation analysis in a prospective and independent cohort of patients. Biological markers (CD38, ZAP-70, and IGHV mutational status) and gene expression profiles (GEP) of leukemic cells from CLL patients included in a prospective multicenter observational study (O-CLL1-GISL protocol, clinicaltrial.gov ID:NCT00917549) were used to assess the value and reproducibility of this score. To date, 468 Binet A patients were classified as low- (0 positive marker), intermediate- (1 positive marker), or high-risk (2 or 3 positive markers) using the progression risk score. The 3-year PFS probability was 91.7%, 82.9%, and 57.4% for low-, intermediate-, and high-risk (P < 0.0001) cases, respectively. These values were similar to those found in the original cohort. At Cox multivariate analysis, Rai stage, absolute lymphocyte count, progression risk score, and β-2 microglobulin maintained an independent prognostic impact on PFS. This score remained a predictor of progression when analysis was limited to 371 Rai 0 cases (P < 0.0001). Finally, the cells from the different CLL risk groups showed differences in their gene expression patterns. These results confirm the ability of this progression risk score to predict PFS among Binet A patients. The utility of the score was also extended by demonstrating that it retains prognostic value when applied exclusively to Rai 0 patients. Specific transcriptional patterns were significantly associated with risk groups.

  3. Clinical Nomogram for Predicting Survival Outcomes in Early Mucinous Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Jiang, Mengjie; Li, Dan; Jiang, Ting; Hong, Zhongwu; Wang, Fan; Li, Shuguang

    2016-01-01

    Background The features related to the prognosis of patients with mucinous breast cancer (MBC) remain controversial. We aimed to explore the prognostic factors of MBC and develop a nomogram for predicting survival outcomes. Methods The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was searched to identify 139611 women with resectable breast cancer from 1990 to 2007. Survival curves were generated using Kaplan-Meier methods. The 5-year and 10-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates were calculated using the Life-Table method. Based on Cox models, a nomogram was constructed to predict the probabilities of CSS for an individual patient. The competing risk regression model was used to analyse the specific survival of patients with MBC. Results There were 136569 (97.82%) infiltrative ductal cancer (IDC) patients and 3042 (2.18%) MBC patients. Patients with MBC had less lymph node involvement, a higher frequency of well-differentiated lesions, and more estrogen receptor (ER)-positive tumors. Patients with MBC had significantly higher 5 and10-year CSS rates (98.23 and 96.03%, respectively) than patients with IDC (91.44 and 85.48%, respectively). Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that MBC was an independent factor for better prognosis. As for patients with MBC, the event of death caused by another disease exceeded the event of death caused by breast cancer. A competing risk regression model further showed that lymph node involvement, poorly differentiated grade and advanced T-classification were independent factors of poor prognosis in patients with MBC. The Nomogram can accurately predict CSS with a high C-index (0.816). Risk scores developed from the nomogram can more accurately predict the prognosis of patients with MBC (C-index = 0.789) than the traditional TNM system (C-index = 0.704, P< 0.001). Conclusions Patients with MBC have a better prognosis than patients with IDC. Nomograms could help clinicians make more informed decisions in

  4. How should paediatricians assess Gillick competence?

    PubMed

    Larcher, Vic; Hutchinson, Anna

    2010-04-01

    Competence is an essential legal requirement for valid consent to medical treatment. Children under 16 may be considered 'Gillick competent' to make treatment decisions, but may need to demonstrate this. Applied tests for competence are wide-ranging and context dependent. Competence is related to cognitive ability and experience and may be enhanced by education, encouragement etc.; there is a general duty for professionals to enhance the competence of children in their care. The need to assess a child's competence may occur when s/he wishes to make a controversial decision whose wisdom others dispute. Potential assessors should have the necessary practical skills and an understanding of the child in their social and medical context. Assessments should be developmentally appropriate, explore systemic influences, and consider the child's emotional state, cognitive development and ability to balance risks and benefits. The involvement of a psychologist or other independent third party should be considered in cases that raise serious concerns about competency, or that involve complex decisions or conflict between the various parties. In rare cases courts may be involved.

  5. Social competence of preschool children with epilepsy.

    PubMed

    Rantanen, K; Timonen, S; Hagström, K; Hämäläinen, P; Eriksson, K; Nieminen, P

    2009-02-01

    The aims of this study were to describe the social competence of 3- to 6-year-old children with epilepsy (n=26) compared with that of age- and gender-matched healthy controls (n=26). Social competence was assessed with the Vineland Social Maturity Scale, Conners' Parent Rating Scales-Revised, and the Child Behavior Checklist. The results indicate that the children with epilepsy, especially with complicated epilepsy, had fewer age-appropriate social skills and more attention and behavior problems than the healthy children, as reported by parents. It is possible that the lack of age-appropriate social skills and the presence of attention problems predispose to behavioral problems. Also, epilepsy-related factors impaired the achievement of social competence. This study shows that the preschool children with complicated, early-onset epilepsy are at increased risk of difficulties in social competence.

  6. Administrative competencies for physician organizations with capitation.

    PubMed

    Penner, M

    1999-01-01

    In California, it is common for HMOs to capitate physician organizations (e.g., independent practice organizations and multispecialty medical groups) for all professional and outpatient ancillary services (and to share risk for inpatient care) under professional risk capitation contracts. This arrangement exports most of the financial risk from the HMO to the physician organization. When HMOs and physician organizations contract under these arrangements, HMOs delegate many of their administrative functions to physician organizations--giving the physician organization authority to make the decisions needed to manage capitated risk. As a result, administrators of physician organizations must be competent in such areas as provider network development, financial forecasting, utilization and quality management, contract negotiation, and establishing systems for claims, reporting, authorizations, and the like. In this study four HMO and 22 physician organization administrators were interviewed concerning key administrative competencies for managing capitation contracts. The competencies were assessed as key administrative work activities that required specific knowledge, skill, or ability to perform. Identifying these competencies is important for physician organizations preparing for capitated risk and will be essential for organizations preparing for HMO or Medicare capitation.

  7. Core competencies of the entrepreneurial leader in health care organizations.

    PubMed

    Guo, Kristina L

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to discuss core competencies that entrepreneurial health care leaders should acquire to ensure the survival and growth of US health care organizations. Three overlapping areas of core competencies are described: (1) health care system and environment competencies, (2) organization competencies, and (3) interpersonal competencies. This study offers insight into the relationship between leaders and entrepreneurship in health care organizations and establishes the foundation for more in-depth studies on leadership competencies in health care settings. The approach for identifying core competencies and designing a competency model is useful for practitioners in leadership positions in complex health care organizations, so that through the understanding and practice of these 3 areas of core competencies, they can enhance their entrepreneurial leadership skills to become more effective health care entrepreneurial leaders. This study can also be used as a tool by health care organizations to better understand leadership performance, and competencies can be used to further the organization's strategic vision and for individual improvement purposes.

  8. Genetic variants in interleukin genes are associated with breast cancer risk and survival in a genetically admixed population: the Breast Cancer Health Disparities Study

    PubMed Central

    Slattery, Martha L.; Herrick, Jennifer S.; Torres-Mejia, Gabriella; John, Esther M.; Giuliano, Anna R.; Hines, Lisa M.; Stern, Mariana C.; Baumgartner, Kathy B.; Presson, Angela P.; Wolff, Roger K.

    2014-01-01

    Interleukins (ILs) are key regulators of immune response. Genetic variation in IL genes may influence breast cancer risk and mortality given their role in cell growth, angiogenesis and regulation of inflammatory process. We examined 16 IL genes with breast cancer risk and mortality in an admixed population of Hispanic/Native American (NA) (2111 cases and 2597 controls) and non-Hispanic white (NHW) (1481 cases and 1585 controls) women. Adaptive Rank Truncated Product (ARTP) analysis was conducted to determine gene significance and lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) was used to identify potential gene by gene and gene by lifestyle interactions. The pathway was statistically significant for breast cancer risk overall (P ARTP = 0.0006), for women with low NA ancestry (P ARTP = 0.01), for premenopausal women (P ARTP = 0.02), for estrogen receptor (ER)+/progesterone receptor (PR)+ tumors (P ARTP = 0.03) and ER−/PR− tumors (P ARTP = 0.02). Eight of the 16 genes evaluated were associated with breast cancer risk (IL1A, IL1B, IL1RN, IL2, IL2RA, IL4, IL6 and IL10); four genes were associated with breast cancer risk among women with low NA ancestry (IL1B, IL6, IL6R and IL10), two were associated with breast cancer risk among women with high NA ancestry (IL2 and IL2RA) and four genes were associated with premenopausal breast cancer risk (IL1A, IL1B, IL2 and IL3). IL4, IL6R, IL8 and IL17A were associated with breast cancer-specific mortality. We confirmed associations with several functional polymorphisms previously associated with breast cancer risk and provide support that their combined effect influences the carcinogenic process. PMID:24670917

  9. Genetic variants in interleukin genes are associated with breast cancer risk and survival in a genetically admixed population: the Breast Cancer Health Disparities Study.

    PubMed

    Slattery, Martha L; Herrick, Jennifer S; Torres-Mejia, Gabriella; John, Esther M; Giuliano, Anna R; Hines, Lisa M; Stern, Mariana C; Baumgartner, Kathy B; Presson, Angela P; Wolff, Roger K

    2014-08-01

    Interleukins (ILs) are key regulators of immune response. Genetic variation in IL genes may influence breast cancer risk and mortality given their role in cell growth, angiogenesis and regulation of inflammatory process. We examined 16 IL genes with breast cancer risk and mortality in an admixed population of Hispanic/Native American (NA) (2111 cases and 2597 controls) and non-Hispanic white (NHW) (1481 cases and 1585 controls) women. Adaptive Rank Truncated Product (ARTP) analysis was conducted to determine gene significance and lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) was used to identify potential gene by gene and gene by lifestyle interactions. The pathway was statistically significant for breast cancer risk overall (P ARTP = 0.0006), for women with low NA ancestry (P(ARTP) = 0.01), for premenopausal women (P(ARTP) = 0.02), for estrogen receptor (ER)+/progesterone receptor (PR)+ tumors (P(ARTP) = 0.03) and ER-/PR- tumors (P(ARTP) = 0.02). Eight of the 16 genes evaluated were associated with breast cancer risk (IL1A, IL1B, IL1RN, IL2, IL2RA, IL4, IL6 and IL10); four genes were associated with breast cancer risk among women with low NA ancestry (IL1B, IL6, IL6R and IL10), two were associated with breast cancer risk among women with high NA ancestry (IL2 and IL2RA) and four genes were associated with premenopausal breast cancer risk (IL1A, IL1B, IL2 and IL3). IL4, IL6R, IL8 and IL17A were associated with breast cancer-specific mortality. We confirmed associations with several functional polymorphisms previously associated with breast cancer risk and provide support that their combined effect influences the carcinogenic process.

  10. Debunking Technical Competency as the Sole Source of Innovation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-01-01

    JFQ 76, 1st Quarter 2015 Catledge 21 Debunking Technical Competency as the Sole Source of Innovation By Burton H. Catledge The inadequacies of our... competence , and this decline places the Nation at risk. A 1983 National Science Foun- dation (NSF) report stated, “If an unfriendly foreign power had...TITLE AND SUBTITLE Debunking Technical Competency as the Sole Source of Innovation 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6

  11. Profiles of Algebraic Competence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Humberstone, J.; Reeve, R.A.

    2008-01-01

    The algebraic competence of 72 12-year-old female students was examined to identify profiles of understanding reflecting different algebraic knowledge states. Beginning algebraic competence (mapping abilities: word-to-symbol and vice versa, classifying, and solving equations) was assessed. One week later, the nature of assistance required to map…

  12. Assessing and Teaching Competence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grant, Terri

    2004-01-01

    The Professional Communication Unit (PCU) at the University of Cape Town (UCT) recently conducted a business communication needs analysis to determine student perceptions of their communicative competence and the teaching strategies being used to develop such competence. Students felt that the specialist, stand-alone communication program was more…

  13. The Spiritual Competency Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Robertson, Linda A.

    2010-01-01

    This study describes the development of the Spiritual Competency Scale, which was based on the Association for Spiritual, Ethical and Religious Values in Counseling's original Spiritual Competencies. Participants were 662 counseling students from religiously based and secular universities nationwide. Exploratory factor analysis revealed a 22-item,…

  14. Communicative Competence Reconsidered.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doushaq, Mufeeq

    A discussion of points raised by Dell Hymes in his article "On Communicative Competence" leads to a proposal for a clearer and more comprehensive theory of communicative competence based on two models, a matrix of discourse analysis and a model of communication interaction. Pedagogical implications of the theory are considered, including the…

  15. Curriculum Competencies, 1984.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Delaware Technical and Community Coll., Dover. Terry Campus.

    This manual specifies the skills and abilities possessed by the graduates of programs offered by the Terry Campus of Delaware Technical and Community College. First, introductory material discusses the college's competency-based philosophy and the efforts by faculty and administrators to criterion reference the competencies perceived by faculty to…

  16. Developing Competence at Work

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bound, Helen; Lin, Magdalene

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we explore the relationship between differing conceptualisations of competence, and the implications of these differences for the enacted workplace curriculum and its pedagogical epistemologies. We argue that when competence is understood as a set of stand-alone attributes that reside within an individual, it limits and over…

  17. Competencies and Their Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Drisko, James W.

    2014-01-01

    This article explores competencies and methods for their assessment in higher education and in social work's accreditation standards. Many contemporary policy and educational accreditation efforts employ the model of competency assessment. The current emphasis on accountability in higher education, including the Council on Social Work…

  18. Curricular Design: Competency Perspective.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grussing, Paul G.

    1987-01-01

    A discussion of pharmaceutical curriculum design to meet the competency needs of professional pharmacists looks at the nature of competency, anticipates some of the demands of such a curriculum, describes some methods of organizing curriculum elements, and provides a brief bibliography. (MSE)

  19. Analyzing ADN competencies.

    PubMed

    Mitchell, P R

    1989-01-01

    El Paso Community College District, using the DACUM Process, identified 19 major competency areas with 313 specific competencies for AD Nursing. This article provides an overview of the DACUM Process, a discussion of the application to the ADN program, a summary of the results, and future activities.

  20. Competencies in HRD. Symposium.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    2002

    This symposium is comprised of three papers on competencies in human resource development (HRD). "The Development of a Competency Model and Assessment Instrument for Public Sector Leadership and Management Development" (Sharon S. Naquin, Elwood F. Holton III) reports on a streamlined methodology and process used to develop a competency…

  1. Therapist Multicultural Competence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mandel, Jennifer O.

    2010-01-01

    The results of this qualitative investigation provide a framework for conceptualizing the practice of multiculturally competent therapy, and identify the characteristics of multiculturally competent therapists. Clinic managers employed in clinics or social service agencies in two Midwestern cities each nominated a white clinician on staff whom…

  2. Adult Educators' Core Competences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wahlgren, Bjarne

    2016-01-01

    Which competences do professional adult educators need? This research note discusses the topic from a comparative perspective, finding that adult educators' required competences are wide-ranging, heterogeneous and complex. They are subject to context in terms of national and cultural environment as well as the kind of adult education concerned…

  3. Impact of Screening and Risk Factors for Local Recurrence and Survival After Conservative Surgery and Radiotherapy for Early Breast Cancer: Results From a Large Series With Long-Term Follow-Up

    SciTech Connect

    Kunkler, Ian H.; Kerr, Gillian R.; Thomas, Jeremy S.; Jack, Wilma J.L.; Bartlett, John M.S.; Pedersen, Hans C.; Cameron, David A.; Dixon, J. Michael; Chetty, Udi

    2012-07-01

    Purpose: To investigate conventional prognostic factors for ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR), distant metastasis (DM), and survival after breast-conserving therapy (BCT) in screen-detected and symptomatic cases on surveillance up to 25 years. Patients and Methods: A total of 1812 consecutive patients in three cohorts (1981-1989, 1990-1992, and 1993-1998) with T12N01M0 invasive breast cancer were treated with BCT (median follow-up, 14 years). Tumor type and grade were reviewed by a single pathologist. Hormone receptor status was measured by immunohistochemistry on tissue microarrays. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess independent prognostic variables for relapse and survival. Results: A total of 205 IBTR occurred, with 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year actuarial relapse rates of 4.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.35-5.5%), 8.4% (95% CI 7.1-9.8%), 14.1% (95% CI 12.0-16%), and 17.4% (95% CI 14.5-20.2%). Number of nodes, young age, pathologic tumor size, and multifocality were significant factors for IBTR. Three hundred seventy-eight patients developed DM. The actuarial metastatic rate was 12% at 5 years and 17.9% at 10 years. Young age, number of positive nodes, pathologic tumor size, and tumor grade were significant factors for DM relapse. When conventional prognostic indices were taken into account screen-detected cancers showed no improvement in overall relapse or survival rate compared with symptomatic cases but did show a reduced risk of DM after IBTR. After 10 years IBTR relapse continued at a constant rate of 0.87% per annum. Conclusions: The Edinburgh BCT series has shown that screen-detected invasive breast cancers do not have significantly different clinical outcomes compared with symptomatic cases when pathologic risk factors are taken into account. This suggests that these patients be managed in a similar way.

  4. Risk of Progression and Survival in Multiple Myeloma Relapsing After Therapy with IMiDs and Bortezomib: A Multicenter International Myeloma Working Group Study

    PubMed Central

    Kumar, Shaji; Lee, Jae Hoon; Lahuerta, Juan J.; Morgan, Gareth; Richardson, Paul G.; Crowley, John; Haessler, Jeff; Feather, John; Hoering, Antje; Moreau, Philippe; LeLeu, Xavier; Hullin, Cyrille; Klein, Saskia K.; Sonneveld, Pieter; Siegel, David; Bladé, Joan; Goldschmidt, Hartmut; Jagannath, Sundar; San Miguel, Jesus; Orlowski, Robert; Palumbo, Antonio; Sezer, Orhan; Durie, Brian G.M.

    2014-01-01

    Promising new drugs are being evaluated for treatment of multiple myeloma (MM), but their impact should be measured against the expected outcome in patients failing current therapies. However, the natural history of relapsed disease in the current era remains unclear. We studied 286 patients with relapsed MM, who were refractory to bortezomib and were relapsed, refractory, or ineligible, to an IMiD (Immunomodulatory Drug), with measurable disease and ECOG PS of 0, 1 or 2. The date patients satisfied the entry criteria was defined as time zero (T0). The median age at diagnosis was 58 years and time from diagnosis to T0 was 3.3 years. Following T0, 213 (74%) patients had a treatment recorded with one or more regimens (median=1; range 0-8). The first regimen contained bortezomib in 55 (26%) patients and an IMiD in 70 (33%). A minor response or better was seen to at least one therapy after T0 in 94 patients (51%) including >=partial response in 69 (38%). The median overall survival and event free survival from T0 were 9 and 5 months respectively. This study confirms the poor outcome once patients become refractory to current treatments. The results provide context for interpreting ongoing trials of new drugs. PMID:21799510

  5. Competencies Framework for Climate Services.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aguilar, Enric

    2016-04-01

    The World Climate Conference-3 (Geneva, 2009) established the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) to enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change at all levels, through development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice. The GFCS defines Climate Services as the result of transforming climate data into climate information in a way that responds to user needs and assists decision-making by individuals and organizations. Capacity Development is a cross-cutting pillar of the GFCS to ensure that services are provided by institutions with professionals whom achieved the adequate set of competencies recommended by WMO, which are yet to be fully defined. The WMO-Commission for Climatology Expert Team on Education and Training, ET-ETR, has been working to define a Competencies Framework for Climate Services to help the institutions to deliver high quality climate services in compliance with WMO standards and regulations, specifically those defined by WMO's Commission for Climatology and the GFCS. This framework is based in 5 areas or competence, closely associated to the areas of work of climate services providers: create and manage climate data sets; derive products from climate data; create and/or interpret climate forecasts and model output; ensure the quality of climate information and services; communicate climatological information with users. With this contribution, we intend to introduce to a wider audience the rationale behind these 5 top-level competency statements and the performance criteria associated with them, as well as the plans of the ET-ETR for further developing them into an instrument to support education and training within the WMO members, specially the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.

  6. Retrospective Evaluation Reveals That Long-term Androgen Deprivation Therapy Improves Cause-Specific and Overall Survival in the Setting of Dose-Escalated Radiation for High-Risk Prostate Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Feng, Felix Y.; Blas, Kevin; Olson, Karin; Stenmark, Matthew; Sandler, Howard; Hamstra, Daniel A.

    2013-05-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the role of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) and duration for high-risk prostate cancer patients treated with dose-escalated radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: A retrospective analysis of high-risk prostate cancer patients treated with dose-escalated RT (minimum 75 Gy) with or without ADT was performed. The relationship between ADT use and duration with biochemical failure (BF), metastatic failure (MF), prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM), non-prostate cancer death (NPCD), and overall survival (OS) was assessed as a function of pretreatment characteristics, comorbid medical illness, and treatment using Fine and Gray's cumulative incidence methodology. Results: The median follow-up time was 64 months. In men with National Comprehensive Cancer Network defined high-risk prostate cancer treated with dose-escalated RT, on univariate analysis, both metastasis (P<.0001; hazard ratio 0.34; 95% confidence interval 0.18-0.67; cumulative incidence at 60 months 13% vs 35%) and PCSM (P=.015; hazard ratio 0.41; 95% confidence interval 0.2-1.0; cumulative incidence at 60 months 6% vs 11%) were improved with the use of ADT. On multivariate analysis for all high-risk patients, Gleason score was the strongest negative prognostic factor, and long-term ADT (LTAD) improved MF (P=.002), PCSM (P=.034), and OS (P=.001). In men with prostate cancer and Gleason scores 8 to 10, on multivariate analysis after adjustment for other risk features, there was a duration-dependent improvement in BF, metastasis, PCSM, and OS, all favoring LTAD in comparison with STAD or RT alone. Conclusion: For men with high-risk prostate cancer treated with dose-escalated EBRT, this retrospective study suggests that the combination of LTAD and RT provided a significant improvement in clinical outcome, which was especially true for those with Gleason scores of 8 to 10.

  7. Surviving a Suicide Attempt

    PubMed Central

    Al-Harrasi, Ahmed; Al Maqbali, Mandhar; Al-Sinawi, Hamed

    2016-01-01

    Suicide is a global phenomenon in all regions of the world affecting people of all age groups. It has detrimental consequences on patients, their families, and the community as a whole. There have been numerous risk factors described for suicide including mental illness, stressful life situations, loss of social support, and general despair. The association of suicide with Islam has not been extensively studied. The common impression from clinical practice is that being a practicing Muslim reduces the risk of suicide. Another factor associated with suicide is starting a patient on antidepressants. However, this has been questioned recently. This report describes a middle-aged man with depression and multiple social stressors who survived a serious suicide attempt. The discussion will focus on the factors that lead him to want to end his life and the impact of the assumed protective factors such as religious belief and family support on this act of self-harm. Such patients can be on the edge when there is an imbalance between risk factors (such as depression, insomnia, and psychosocial stressors) and protective factors (like religious affiliation and family support). All physicians are advised to assess the suicide risk thoroughly in patients with depression regardless of any presumed protective factor. PMID:27602193

  8. Dietary exposure of mink to carp from Saginaw Bay, Michigan. 1. Effects on reproduction and survival, and the potential risks to wild mink populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Heaton, S. N.; Bursian, S.J.; Giesy, J.P.; Tillitt, D. E.; Render, J. A.; Jones, P.D.; Verbrugge, D.A.; Kubiak, T.J.; Aulerich, R.J.

    1995-01-01

    Carp (Cyprinus carpio) collected from Saginaw Bay, Michigan, containing 8.4 mg total polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs)/kg and 194 ng of 2,3,7,8-tetrachloro-dibenzo-p-dioxin equivalents (TEQs)/kg, were substituted for marine fish at levels of 0, 10, 20, or 40% in the diets of adult ranch mink (Mustela vison). The diets, containing 0.015, 0.72, 1.53, and 2.56 mg PCBs/kg diet, or 1.03, 19.41, 40.02, and 80.76 ng TEQs/kg diet, respectively, were fed to mink prior to and throughout the reproductive period to evaluate the effects of a naturally-contaminated prey species on their survival and reproductive performance. The total quantities of PCBs ingested by the mink fed 0, 10, 20, or 40% carp over the 85-day treatment period were 0.34, 13.2, 25.3, and 32.3 mg PCBs/mink, respectively. The corresponding quantities of TEQs ingested by the mink over the same treatment period were 23, 356, 661, and 1,019 ng TEQs/mink, respectively. Consumption of feed by mink was inversely proportional to the PCB and TEQ content of the diet. The diets containing Saginaw Bay carp caused impaired reproduction and/or reduced survival of the kits. Compared to controls, body weights of kits at birth were significantly reduced in the 20 and 40% carp groups, and kit body weights and survival in the 10 and 20% carp groups were significantly reduced at three and six weeks of age. The females fed 40% carp whelped the fewest number of kits, all of which were stillborn or died within 24 hours. Lowest observable adverse effect levels (LOAEL) of 0.134 mg PCBs/kg body weight/day or 3.6 ng TEQs/kg body weight/day for adult female mink were determined. The potential effects of exposure of wild mink to contaminated Great Lakes fish were assessed by calculating “maximum allowable daily intakes” and “hazard indices” based on total concentrations of PCB residues in several species of Great Lakes fish and mink toxicity data derived from the study.

  9. Evaluating tetanus neonatorum as a child survival risk in rural Egypt in the absence of reliable cause-of-death registration.

    PubMed

    Mobarak, A B; Kielmann, A A; van der Most van Spijk, M; Hammamy, M T; Nagaty, A A

    1985-12-01

    The principal finding of the investigation is that neonatal tenanus is, indeed an important cause of infant death in rural Egypt even though the normal cause-of-death reporting system had not altered health authorities to the problem. The finding is based on a comparison of registration statistics with (anthropological) reconstruction of pregnancies and child survival using the case-history rather than the epidemiological method. The histories go back ten years and refer to 102 women in two villages of Egypt. An incidental finding is confirmation of the known deficiency of infant death reporting, and associated births, with the extra dividend of showing how serious this may be in the neonatal period. Another incidental finding is the identification of induced abortion as a health problem.

  10. Predicting the Survival Time for Bladder Cancer Using an Additive Hazards Model in Microarray Data

    PubMed Central

    TAPAK, Leili; MAHJUB, Hossein; SADEGHIFAR, Majid; SAIDIJAM, Massoud; POOROLAJAL, Jalal

    2016-01-01

    Background: One substantial part of microarray studies is to predict patients’ survival based on their gene expression profile. Variable selection techniques are powerful tools to handle high dimensionality in analysis of microarray data. However, these techniques have not been investigated in competing risks setting. This study aimed to investigate the performance of four sparse variable selection methods in estimating the survival time. Methods: The data included 1381 gene expression measurements and clinical information from 301 patients with bladder cancer operated in the years 1987 to 2000 in hospitals in Denmark, Sweden, Spain, France, and England. Four methods of the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, smoothly clipped absolute deviation, the smooth integration of counting and absolute deviation and elastic net were utilized for simultaneous variable selection and estimation under an additive hazards model. The criteria of area under ROC curve, Brier score and c-index were used to compare the methods. Results: The median follow-up time for all patients was 47 months. The elastic net approach was indicated to outperform other methods. The elastic net had the lowest integrated Brier score (0.137±0.07) and the greatest median of the over-time AUC and C-index (0.803±0.06 and 0.779±0.13, respectively). Five out of 19 selected genes by the elastic net were significant (P<0.05) under an additive hazards model. It was indicated that the expression of RTN4, SON, IGF1R and CDC20 decrease the survival time, while the expression of SMARCAD1 increase it. Conclusion: The elastic net had higher capability than the other methods for the prediction of survival time in patients with bladder cancer in the presence of competing risks base on additive hazards model. PMID:27114989

  11. Social disparities in heart disease risk and survivor bias among autoworkers: an examination based on survival models and g-estimation

    PubMed Central

    Costello, Sadie; Picciotto, Sally; Rehkopf, David H; Eisen, Ellen A

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To examine gender and racial disparities in ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality related to metalworking fluid exposures and in the healthy worker survivor effect. Methods A cohort of white and black men and women autoworkers in the USA was followed from 1941 to 1995 with quantitative exposure to respirable particulate matter from water-based metalworking fluids. Separate analyses used proportional hazards models and g-estimation. Results The HR for IHD among black men was 3.29 (95% CI 1.49 to 7.31) in the highest category of cumulative synthetic fluid exposure. The HR for IHD among white women exposed to soluble fluid reached 2.44 (95% CI 0.96 to 6.22). However, no increased risk was observed among white men until we corrected for the healthy worker survivor effect. Results from g-estimation indicate that if white male cases exposed to soluble or synthetic fluid had been unexposed to that fluid type, then 1.59 and 1.20 years of life would have been saved on average, respectively. Conclusions We leveraged the strengths of two different analytic approaches to examine the IHD risks of metalworking fluids. All workers may have the same aetiological risk; however, black and female workers may experience more IHD from water-based metalworking fluid exposure because of a steeper exposure–response or weaker healthy worker survivor effect. PMID:25415971

  12. Competent poverty training.

    PubMed

    Stabb, Sally D; Reimers, Faye A

    2013-02-01

    Despite numerous calls to the discipline, attention to poverty and social class remains minimal in psychology even though most human experience is significantly affected by social ranking. As a result, educators lack models for training in the context of poverty. Recent and concerted efforts to define and implement competency-based models for the practice of professional psychology have resulted in the creation of Competency Benchmarks (American Psychological Association, 2011). Here, these Competency Benchmarks frame the integration of best practices in working with poor and working-class clients with what we know about what constitutes good training. The result is a competency-based approach for those who are training psychologists-to-be to work effectively with economically challenged clients.

  13. Military nursing competencies.

    PubMed

    Ross, Mary Candice

    2010-06-01

    Competencies for military nurses are much broader in scope than their civilian counterparts. Not only must they be proficient at basic nursing skills, but they must also quickly master such military skills as protecting themselves and others during attack or threat of attack, caring for major trauma victims under austere conditions, and preparing such patients for transport through the military system of evacuation. This requires consistent and specialized training. This article describes the competencies necessary for practice by military nurses.

  14. Suicide Often Leaves Mental, Physical Woes in Surviving Spouse

    MedlinePlus

    ... suggest. Surviving partners are more likely to develop post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, anxiety and other mood disorders. Surviving spouses are also at higher risk for suicide themselves, the study said. "It's a really distressing ...

  15. Social competence in children of alcoholic parents over time.

    PubMed

    Hussong, Andrea M; Zucker, Robert A; Wong, Maria M; Fitzgerald, Hiram E; Puttler, Leon I

    2005-09-01

    In the current study, the authors tested the hypothesis that children of alcoholic parents (COAs) show deficits in social competence that begin in early childhood and escalate through middle adolescence. Teachers, parents, and children reported on the social competence of COAs and matched controls in a community sample assessed from ages 6 to 15. Hierarchical linear growth models revealed different patterns of change in social competence across development as a function of the reporter of various indicators of competence. Moreover, female COAs showed deficits in social competence in early childhood that receded in adolescence and that varied across subtypes of parent alcoholism. Implications of these findings for understanding the development of social competence in children, and at-risk children in particular, are discussed.

  16. Long-term survival after high-dose chemotherapy followed by peripheral stem cell rescue for high-risk, locally advanced/inflammatory, and metastatic breast cancer.

    PubMed

    VanderWalde, A; Ye, W; Frankel, P; Asuncion, D; Leong, L; Luu, T; Morgan, R; Twardowski, P; Koczywas, M; Pezner, R; Paz, I B; Margolin, K; Wong, J; Doroshow, J H; Forman, S; Shibata, S; Somlo, G

    2012-08-01

    Patients with high-risk locally advanced/inflammatory and oligometastatic (≤3 sites) breast cancer frequently relapse or experience early progression. High-dose chemotherapy combined with peripheral stem cell rescue may prolong progression-free survival/relapse-free survival (PFS/RFS) and overall survival (OS). In this study, patients initiated high-dose chemotherapy with STAMP-V (carboplatin, thiotepa, and cyclophosphamide), ACT (doxorubicin, paclitaxel, and cyclophosphamide), or tandem melphalan and STAMP-V. Eighty-six patients were diagnosed with locally advanced/inflammatory (17 inflammatory) breast cancer, and 12 were diagnosed with oligometastatic breast cancer. Median follow-up was 84 months (range, 6-136 months) for patients with locally advanced cancer and 40 months (range, 24-62 months) for those with metastatic cancer. In the patients with locally advanced cancer, 5-year RFS and OS were 53% (95% CI, 41%-63%) and 71% (95% CI, 60%-80%), respectively, hormone receptors were positive in 74%, and HER2 overexpression was seen in 23%. In multivariate analysis, hormone receptor-positive disease and lower stage were associated with better 5-year RFS (60% for ER [estrogen receptor]/PR [progesterone receptor]-positive versus 30% for ER/PR-negative; P < .01) and OS (83% for ER/PR-positive versus 38% for ER/PR-negative; P < .001). In the patients with metastatic cancer, 3-year PFS and OS were 49% (95% CI, 19%-73%) and 73% (95% CI, 38%-91%), respectively. The favorable long-term RFS/PFS and OS for high-dose chemotherapy with peripheral stem cell rescue in this selected patient population reflect the relative safety of the procedure and warrant validation in defined subgroups through prospective, randomized, multi-institutional trials.

  17. Phase-dependent climate-predator interactions explain three decades of variation in neonatal caribou survival.

    PubMed

    Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume; Schaefer, James A; Lewis, Keith P; Mumma, Matthew A; Ellington, E Hance; Rayl, Nathaniel D; Mahoney, Shane P; Pouliot, Darren; Murray, Dennis L

    2016-03-01

    Climate can have direct and indirect effects on population dynamics via changes in resource competition or predation risk, but this influence may be modulated by density- or phase-dependent processes. We hypothesized that for ungulates, climatic conditions close to parturition have a greater influence on the predation risk of neonates during population declines, when females are already under nutritional stress triggered by food limitation. We examined the presence of phase-dependent climate-predator (PDCP) interactions on neonatal ungulate survival by comparing spatial and temporal fluctuations in climatic conditions, cause-specific mortality and per capita resource limitation. We determined cause-specific fates of 1384 caribou (Rangifer tarandus) from 10 herds in Newfoundland, spanning more than 30 years during periods of numerical increase and decline, while exposed to predation from black bears (Ursus americanus) and coyotes (Canis latrans). We conducted Cox proportional hazards analysis for competing risks, fit as a function of weather metrics, to assess pre- and post-partum climatic influences on survival on herds in population increase and decline phases. We used cumulative incidence functions to compare temporal changes in risk from predators. Our results support our main hypothesis; when caribou populations increased, weather conditions preceding calving were the main determinants of cause-specific mortality, but when populations declined, weather conditions during calving also influenced predator-driven mortality. Cause-specific analysis showed that weather conditions can differentially affect predation risk between black bears and coyotes with specific variables increasing the risk from one species and decreasing the risk from the other. For caribou, nutritional stress appears to increase predation risk on neonates, an interaction which is exacerbated by susceptibility to climatic events. These findings support the PDCP interactions framework, where

  18. Climatic effects on Salmonella survival in plant and soil irrigated with artificially inoculated wastewater: preliminary results.

    PubMed

    Palacios, M P; Lupiola, P; Tejedor, M T; Del-Nero, E; Pardo, A; Pita, L

    2001-01-01

    The use of wastewater to replace other water resources for irrigation is highly dependent on whether the health risk and environmental impacts entailed are acceptable or not. Total count and species of microorganisms found in wastewater vary widely because of climatic conditions, season, population sanitary habits and disease incidence. Salmonella, one of the genera associated with waterborne diseases, lives in the intestine. Thus, it is widely accepted that they have a limited survival period under environmental conditions. Wastewater management practices and the ability of Salmonella to survival under field conditions would determine the health risk associated with its presence in wastewater. Although chlorination is widely used, there are situations in which Salmonella is able to survive the sudden stress imposed by this technique. The aim of this experiment was to contribute to the study of the climatic and soil effects on pathogen survival under agricultural field conditions in order to assess which were the best wastewater management practices from both health and economic points of view. Five pots filled with soil seeded with Medicago sativa and an automatic weather station were used. A secondary effluent was artificially inoculated with Salmonella. In addition, open plates (filled with sterilised soil) and ultraviolet radiation isolated plates (filled with non-sterilised soil) were used. As soil heat emission contributes to the environmental conditions around the bacteria, standardised meteorological temperature data had to be carefully used in the bacterial survival studies under agricultural conditions. Radiation was the main cause of Salmonella mortality as its effect was more important than natural soil bacteria competence. Higher reduction of Salmonella counts could have been associated with longer spring days. Soil was able to effectively remove Salmonella. Subsurface drip irrigation methods could provide an effective tool to prevent health risk

  19. Allogeneic stem cell transplantation for adult Philadelphia chromosome-negative acute lymphocytic leukemia: comparable survival rates but different risk factors between related and unrelated transplantation in first complete remission.

    PubMed

    Nishiwaki, Satoshi; Inamoto, Yoshihiro; Sakamaki, Hisashi; Kurokawa, Mineo; Iida, Hiroatsu; Ogawa, Hiroyasu; Fukuda, Takahiro; Ozawa, Yukiyasu; Kobayashi, Naoki; Kasai, Masanobu; Mori, Takehiko; Iwato, Koji; Yoshida, Takashi; Onizuka, Makoto; Kawa, Keisei; Morishima, Yasuo; Suzuki, Ritsuro; Atsuta, Yoshiko; Miyamura, Koichi

    2010-11-18

    To identify factors to improve the outcomes of related and unrelated allogeneic stem cell transplantations (allo-SCT) for Philadelphia chromosome-negative acute lymphocytic leukemia (Ph(-) ALL) in the first complete remission (CR1), we retrospectively analyzed 1139 Ph(-) ALL patients using the registry data, particularly the details of 641 patients transplanted in CR1. Overall survival was significantly superior among patients transplanted in CR1, but no significant difference was observed between related and unrelated allo-SCTs (related vs unrelated: 65% vs 62% at 4 years, respectively; P = .19). Among patients transplanted in CR1, relapse rates were significantly higher in related allo-SCT compared with unrelated allo-SCT, and multivariate analysis demonstrated that less than 6 months from diagnosis to allo-SCT alone was associated with relapse. On the other hand, nonrelapse mortality (NRM) was significantly higher in unrelated allo-SCT compared with related allo-SCT, and multivariate analysis demonstrated that 10 months or longer from diagnosis to allo-SCT, human leukocyte antigen mismatch, and abnormal karyotype were associated with NRM. In conclusion, our study showed comparable survival rates but different relapse rates, NRM rates, and risk factors between related and unrelated allo-SCTs. After a close consideration of these factors, the outcome of allo-SCT for adult Ph(-) ALL in CR1 could be improved.

  20. Dental Assisting Competencies. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Richards, Beverly; And Others

    This document contains dental assisting competencies and competency-based performance objectives, learning activities, resources, and evaluation procedures for each competency that was adapted and developed by instructors of dental assisting to suit the needs and legal parameters of Pennsylvania. The competencies and associated elements are…

  1. Medical Assisting Competencies. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Richards, Beverly; And Others

    This document contains medical assisting competencies and competency-based performance objectives, learning activities, resources, and levels of achievement for each competency that were adapted and developed by instructors of medical assisting to suit the needs and legal parameters of Pennsylvania. The competencies and associated elements are…

  2. Humor Competence: The Fifth Component.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vega, Gladys M.

    The production and understanding of humor calls for a specific competence. It appears that second language learners fail to develop this competence even when they reach native-like proficiency levels. A review of the literature suggests that the notion of humor competence in second language learning has not been examined. Humor competence can be…

  3. Carpentry. Ohio's Competency Analysis Profile.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ohio State Univ., Columbus. Vocational Instructional Materials Lab.

    This comprehensive and verified employer competency list was developed from a modified DACUM (Developing a Curriculum) process involving business, industry, labor, and community agency representatives from Ohio. This competency list contains 14 units (with or without subunits), competencies, and competency builders that identify the occupational,…

  4. Welding. Ohio's Competency Analysis Profile.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ohio State Univ., Columbus. Vocational Instructional Materials Lab.

    This Ohio Competency Analysis Profile (OCAP), derived from a modified Developing a Curriculum (DACUM) process, is a comprehensive and verified employer competency list for a welding program. It contains units (with or without subunits), competencies, and competency builders that identify the occupational, academic, and employability skills needed…

  5. Quality of Survival and Growth in Children and Young Adults in the PNET4 European Controlled Trial of Hyperfractionated Versus Conventional Radiation Therapy for Standard-Risk Medulloblastoma

    SciTech Connect

    Kennedy, Colin; Bull, Kim; Chevignard, Mathilde; Culliford, David; Dörr, Helmuth G.; Doz, François; Kortmann, Rolf-Dieter; Lannering, Birgitta; Massimino, Maura; Navajas Gutiérrez, Aurora; Rutkowski, Stefan; Spoudeas, Helen A.; Calaminus, Gabriele

    2014-02-01

    Purpose: To compare quality of survival in “standard-risk” medulloblastoma after hyperfractionated radiation therapy of the central nervous system with that after standard radiation therapy, combined with a chemotherapy regimen common to both treatment arms, in the PNET4 randomised controlled trial. Methods and Materials: Participants in the PNET4 trial and their parents/caregivers in 7 participating anonymized countries completed standardized questionnaires in their own language on executive function, health status, behavior, health-related quality of life, and medical, educational, employment, and social information. Pre- and postoperative neurologic status and serial heights and weights were also recorded. Results: Data were provided by 151 of 244 eligible survivors (62%) at a median age at assessment of 15.2 years and median interval from diagnosis of 5.8 years. Compared with standard radiation therapy, hyperfractionated radiation therapy was associated with lower (ie, better) z-scores for executive function in all participants (mean intergroup difference 0.48 SDs, 95% confidence interval 0.16-0.81, P=.004), but health status, behavioral difficulties, and health-related quality of life z-scores were similar in the 2 treatment arms. Data on hearing impairment were equivocal. Hyperfractionated radiation therapy was also associated with greater decrement in height z-scores (mean intergroup difference 0.43 SDs, 95% confidence interval 0.10-0.76, P=.011). Conclusions: Hyperfractionated radiation therapy was associated with better executive function and worse growth but without accompanying change in health status, behavior, or quality of life.

  6. Cytomegalovirus Reactivation after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation is Associated with a Reduced Risk of Relapse in Patients with Acute Myeloid Leukemia Who Survived to Day 100 after Transplantation: The Japan Society for Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Transplantation-related Complication Working Group.

    PubMed

    Takenaka, Katsuto; Nishida, Tetsuya; Asano-Mori, Yuki; Oshima, Kumi; Ohashi, Kazuteru; Mori, Takehiko; Kanamori, Heiwa; Miyamura, Koichi; Kato, Chiaki; Kobayashi, Naoki; Uchida, Naoyuki; Nakamae, Hirohisa; Ichinohe, Tatsuo; Morishima, Yasuo; Suzuki, Ritsuro; Yamaguchi, Takuhiro; Fukuda, Takahiro

    2015-11-01

    Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is a major infectious complication after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). Recently, it was reported that CMV reactivation is associated with a decreased risk of relapse in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of early CMV reactivation on the incidence of disease relapse after allo-HSCT in a large cohort of patients. The Japan Society for Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation's Transplantation-Related Complication Working Group retrospectively surveyed the database of the Transplant Registry Unified Management Program at the Japan Society for Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation. Patients with AML (n = 1836), acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL, n = 911), chronic myeloid leukemia (CML, n = 223), and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS, n = 569) who underwent their first allo-HSCT from HLA-matched related or unrelated donors between 2000 and 2009 and who survived without disease relapse until day 100 after transplantation were analyzed. Patients who received umbilical cord blood transplantation were not included. Patients underwent surveillance by pp65 antigenemia from the time of engraftment, and the beginning of preemptive therapy was defined as CMV reactivation. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the risk factors of relapse, nonrelapse, and overall mortality. CMV reactivation and acute/chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) were evaluated as time-dependent covariates. CMV reactivation was associated with a decreased incidence of relapse in patients with AML (20.3% versus 26.4%, P = .027), but not in patients with ALL, CML, or MDS. Among 1836 patients with AML, CMV reactivation occurred in 795 patients (43.3%) at a median of 42 days, and 436 patients (23.7%) relapsed at a median of 221 days after allo-HSCT. Acute GVHD grades II to IV developed in 630 patients (34.3%). By multivariate analysis considering competing risk factors, 3

  7. Defining incidence, risk factors, and impact on survival of central line-associated blood stream infections following hematopoietic cell transplantation in acute myeloid leukemia and myelodysplastic syndrome.

    PubMed

    Lukenbill, Joshua; Rybicki, Lisa; Sekeres, Mikkael A; Zaman, Muhammad Omer; Copelan, Alexander; Haddad, Housam; Fraser, Thomas; DiGiorgio, Megan J; Hanna, Rabi; Duong, Hien; Hill, Brian; Kalaycio, Matt; Sobecks, Ronald; Bolwell, Brian; Copelan, Edward

    2013-05-01

    Central line-associated blood stream infections (CLABSI) commonly complicate the care of patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) after allogeneic stem cell transplantation (HCT). We developed a modified CLABSI (MCLABSI) definition that attempts to exclude pathogens usually acquired because of disruption of mucosal barriers during the vulnerable neutropenic period following HCT that are generally included under the original definition (OCLABSI). We conducted a retrospective study of all AML and MDS patients undergoing HCT between August 2009 and December 2011 at the Cleveland Clinic (N = 73), identifying both OCLABSI and MCLABSI incidence. The median age at transplantation was 52 years (range, 16 to 70); 34 had a high (≥3) HCT comorbidity index (HCT-CI); 34 received bone marrow (BM), 24 received peripheral stem cells (PSC), and 15 received umbilical cord blood cells (UCB). Among these 73 patients, 23 (31.5%) developed OCLABSI, of whom 16 (69.6%) died, and 8 (11%) developed MCLABSI, of whom 7 (87.5%) died. OCLABSI was diagnosed a median of 9 days from HCT: 5 days (range, 2 to 12) for UCB and 78 days (range, 7 to 211) for BM/PSC (P < .001). MCLABSI occurred a median of 12 days from HCT, with similar earlier UCB and later BM/PSC diagnosis (P = .030). Risk factors for OCLABSI in univariate analysis included CBC (P < .001), human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-mismatch (P = .005), low CD34(+) count (P = .007), low total nucleated cell dose (P = .016), and non-Caucasian race (P = .017). Risk factors for OCLABSI in multivariable analysis were UCB (P < .001) and high HCT-CI (P = .002). There was a significant increase in mortality for both OCLABSI (hazard ratio, 7.14; CI, 3.31 to 15.37; P < .001) and MCLABSI (hazard ratio, 6.44; CI, 2.28 to 18.18; P < .001). CLABSI is common and associated with high mortality in AML and MDS patients undergoing HCT, especially in UCB recipients and those with high HCT-CI. We propose

  8. Environmental Survival of Neisseria meningitidis

    PubMed Central

    Tzeng, Y.-L.; Martin, L.E.; Stephens, D.S.

    2017-01-01

    Summary Neisseria meningitidis is transmitted through the inhalation of large human respiratory droplets, but the risk from contaminated environmental surfaces is controversial. Compared to Streptococcus pneumoniae and Acinetobacter baumanni, meningococcal viability after desiccation on plastic, glass or metal surfaces decreased rapidly; but viable meningococci were present for up to 72 hours. Encapsulation did not provide an advantage for meningococcal environmental survival on environmental surfaces. PMID:23574798

  9. Survival analysis and Cox regression.

    PubMed

    Benítez-Parejo, N; Rodríguez del Águila, M M; Pérez-Vicente, S

    2011-01-01

    The data provided by clinical trials are often expressed in terms of survival. The analysis of survival comprises a series of statistical analytical techniques in which the measurements analysed represent the time elapsed between a given exposure and the outcome of a certain event. Despite the name of these techniques, the outcome in question does not necessarily have to be either survival or death, and may be healing versus no healing, relief versus pain, complication versus no complication, relapse versus no relapse, etc. The present article describes the analysis of survival from both a descriptive perspective, based on the Kaplan-Meier estimation method, and in terms of bivariate comparisons using the log-rank statistic. Likewise, a description is provided of the Cox regression models for the study of risk factors or covariables associated to the probability of survival. These models are defined in both simple and multiple forms, and a description is provided of how they are calculated and how the postulates for application are checked - accompanied by illustrating examples with the shareware application R.

  10. Competencies in the Heartland

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cejda, Brent

    2012-01-01

    Although many of the issues facing community colleges are similar, rural community colleges face additional leadership challenges due to limited resources, geographic isolation, and static economies. This chapter focuses on the impact of location on the interpretation and development of the leadership competencies. The chapter concludes with…

  11. Calibrating Communication Competencies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Surges Tatum, Donna

    2016-11-01

    The Many-faceted Rasch measurement model is used in the creation of a diagnostic instrument by which communication competencies can be calibrated, the severity of observers/raters can be determined, the ability of speakers measured, and comparisons made between various groups.

  12. Adult educators' core competences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wahlgren, Bjarne

    2016-06-01

    Which competences do professional adult educators need? This research note discusses the topic from a comparative perspective, finding that adult educators' required competences are wide-ranging, heterogeneous and complex. They are subject to context in terms of national and cultural environment as well as the kind of adult education concerned (e.g. basic education, work-related education etc.). However, it seems that it is possible to identify certain competence requirements which transcend national, cultural and functional boundaries. This research note summarises these common or "core" requirements, organising them into four thematic subcategories: (1) communicating subject knowledge; (2) taking students' prior learning into account; (3) supporting a learning environment; and (4) the adult educator's reflection on his or her own performance. At the end of his analysis of different competence profiles, the author notes that adult educators' ability to train adult learners in a way which then enables them to apply and use what they have learned in practice (thus performing knowledge transfer) still seems to be overlooked.

  13. Pragmatics and Communicative Competences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lin, Grace Hui Chin; Su, Simon Chun Feng; Ho, Max Ming Hsuang

    2009-01-01

    Pragmatics is included in one of four communicative competences (Canale, 1980). It is necessary and important to teach pragmatics at school in our globalized world in order to avoid as much as misunderstanding, which is likely to stem from cultural difference. As a result, greater importance should be attached to diverse customs and pragmatics.…

  14. Teachers' Assessment Competencies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arce-Ferrer, Alvaro J.; Cab, Victor Pech; Cisneros-Cohernour, Edith J.

    This paper summarizes main findings from an investigation of the familiarity and importance of assessment practices from the perspectives of Mexican teachers, counselors, and administrators. A survey that listed 74 practices, sampling 7 areas of competencies, was assembled from the Code of Fair Testing Practices in Education, the Standards for…

  15. Competence without Credentials.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stacey, Nevzer G., Ed.

    These workshop papers address the challenges of alternative credentials, new modes of instruction, and multiple sources of instruction. Following an introduction by Nevzer G. Stacey, "Competence without Credentials: Promise and Potential Problems of Computer-Based Distance Education" (Stephen R. Barley) provides a conceptual framework for the…

  16. Competent for What?

    PubMed Central

    Baker, F. M.

    1987-01-01

    As the United States population ages, psychiatrists will have increasing requests for consultations to address legal issues involving older persons. Following an overview of competency as a distinct legal issue, specific legal issues are addressed that include hospitalization, consent or refusal of treatment, living will legislation, and guardianship and conservatorship. Relevant cases are cited. PMID:3625793

  17. Ohio Biotechnology Competency Profile.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, Lavonna; Bowermeister, Bob; Boudreau, Joyce

    This document, which lists the biotechnology competencies identified by representatives from biotechnology businesses and industries as well as secondary and post-secondary educators throughout Ohio, is intended to assist individuals and organizations in developing college tech prep programs that will prepare students from secondary through…

  18. Natural competence for transformation.

    PubMed

    Blokesch, Melanie

    2016-11-07

    While most molecular biologists are familiar with the artificial transformation of bacteria in the context of laboratory cloning experiments, natural competence for transformation refers to a specific physiological state in which prokaryotes are able to take up genetic material from their surroundings. Occasionally, such absorbed DNA is recombined into the organism's own genome, resulting in natural transformation (Figure 1). As a consequence, natural competence for transformation is considered a primary mode of horizontal gene transfer (HGT) in prokaryotes, together with conjugation (direct cell to cell transfer of DNA via a specialized conjugal pilus) and phage transduction (DNA transfer mediated by viruses). HGT plays a major role in bacterial evolution, and past research has demonstrated that HGT, including natural competence for transformation, contributes to the emergence of pathogens and the spread of virulence factors. Indeed, Frederick Griffith discovered natural competence for transformation in 1928 while he was investigating the exchange of pathogenic traits in pneumococci. Due to the increase in the abundance and spread of multidrug-resistant microbes, research on HGT is even more important today than ever before.

  19. Carpentry. Competencies for Articulation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Southeast Community Coll., Lincoln, NE.

    Materials contained in this guide present competencies describing carpentry skills necessary for success in initial employment or applicable to advanced educational placement, and may be used by administrators, students, and secondary and postsecondary vocational teachers. The student outcomes section provides guidelines for planning of and…

  20. Adult Competency Education Profile.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bureau of Occupational and Adult Education (DHEW/OE), Washington, DC. Div. of Adult Education.

    A compilation of abstracts of 120 current Adult Performance Level (APL) and Adult Competency Education (ACE) federally supported projects being conducted in 34 States and the District of Columbia, this project profile was developed for adult and secondary education administrators, teachers, and program developers who are beginning or are currently…

  1. Adult Competency Education Resources.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bureau of Occupational and Adult Education (DHEW/OE), Washington, DC. Div. of Adult Education.

    A compilation of brief descriptions of 20 current resources for Adult Performance Level (APL) and Adult Competency Education (ACE) programs, this guide was developed for adult and secondary education administrators, teachers, and program developers who are beginning or are already involved with APL/ACE programs. Each citation contains information…

  2. Assessing Culturally Competent Scholarship.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mendias, Elnora P.; Guevara, Edilma B.

    2001-01-01

    Eight criteria for culturally competent scholarship (contextuality, relevance, communication styles, awareness of identity and power differences, disclosure, reciprocation, empowerment, time) were applied to an international education/research nursing program. Appropriate measures for each were developed and ways to improve the program were…

  3. Plastics Technical Competency Profile.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ohio State Univ., Columbus. Center on Education and Training for Employment.

    This document, which is intended to assist individuals responsible for developing tech prep programs, lists the occupational, academic, and employability competencies that representatives from education, business/industry, and labor throughout Ohio have identified as being necessary for employment in technician-level positions involving the…

  4. Welding. Competencies for Articulation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Southeast Community Coll., Lincoln, NE.

    Materials contained in this guide present competencies describing welding skills necessary for success in initial employment or applicable to advanced educational placement, and may be used by administrators, students, and secondary and postsecondary vocational teachers. The student outcomes section provides guidelines for planning of and…

  5. Teach to Compete

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shields, David Light; Funk, Christopher

    2011-01-01

    After years of working with athletes and coaches of all ages, the authors have come to the conclusion that young people need to be taught how to compete. Rather than assume students understand competition, it is vital that they are educated about it. Coaches and physical educators have both a unique opportunity and profound responsibility to teach…

  6. Intellectual Competence and Aggression.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huesmann, L. Rowell; Yarmel, Patty Warnick

    Using data from a broader longitudinal study, this investigation explores within-subject and cross-generational stability of intellectual competence and the relationship of such stability to aggressive behavior. Data were gathered three times (when subjects' modal age was 8, 19, and 30 years). Initially, subjects included the entire population…

  7. Assessment Mathematics Teacher's Competencies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alnoor, A. G.; Yuanxiang, Guo; Abudhuim, F. S.

    2007-01-01

    This paper aimed to identifying the professional efficiencies for the intermediate schools mathematics teachers and tries to know at what level the math teachers experience those competencies. The researcher used a descriptive research approach, the study data collected from specialist educators and teacher's experts and previous studies to…

  8. Individual Growth in Competence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bierschenk, Bernhard; Bierschenk, Inger

    This paper presents the second study in a series that has been designed to manifest the emergence of consciousness and to measure developed competence. Its major aim has been to demonstrate that an invariant formulation of the Agent-action-Objective model and an analysis of it's a-O kinematics have the capacity to reproduce contour similarity over…

  9. Diesel Vehicle Maintenance Competencies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Braswell, Robert; And Others

    Designed to provide a model set of competencies, this manual presents tasks which were identified by employers, employees, and teachers as important in a postsecondary diesel vehicle maintenance curriculum. The tasks are divided into seven major component areas of instruction: chassis and suspension, diesel engines, diesel fuel, electrical,…

  10. Proposed Core Competencies and Empirical Validation Procedure in Competency Modeling: Confirmation and Classification.

    PubMed

    Baczyńska, Anna K; Rowiński, Tomasz; Cybis, Natalia

    2016-01-01

    Competency models provide insight into key skills which are common to many positions in an organization. Moreover, there is a range of competencies that is used by many companies. Researchers have developed core competency terminology to underline their cross-organizational value. The article presents a theoretical model of core competencies consisting of two main higher-order competencies called performance and entrepreneurship. Each of them consists of three elements: the performance competency includes cooperation, organization of work and goal orientation, while entrepreneurship includes innovativeness, calculated risk-taking and pro-activeness. However, there is lack of empirical validation of competency concepts in organizations and this would seem crucial for obtaining reliable results from organizational research. We propose a two-step empirical validation procedure: (1) confirmation factor analysis, and (2) classification of employees. The sample consisted of 636 respondents (M = 44.5; SD = 15.1). Participants were administered a questionnaire developed for the study purpose. The reliability, measured by Cronbach's alpha, ranged from 0.60 to 0.83 for six scales. Next, we tested the model using a confirmatory factor analysis. The two separate, single models of performance and entrepreneurial orientations fit quite well to the data, while a complex model based on the two single concepts needs further research. In the classification of employees based on the two higher order competencies we obtained four main groups of employees. Their profiles relate to those found in the literature, including so-called niche finders and top performers. Some proposal for organizations is discussed.

  11. Proposed Core Competencies and Empirical Validation Procedure in Competency Modeling: Confirmation and Classification

    PubMed Central

    Baczyńska, Anna K.; Rowiński, Tomasz; Cybis, Natalia

    2016-01-01

    Competency models provide insight into key skills which are common to many positions in an organization. Moreover, there is a range of competencies that is used by many companies. Researchers have developed core competency terminology to underline their cross-organizational value. The article presents a theoretical model of core competencies consisting of two main higher-order competencies called performance and entrepreneurship. Each of them consists of three elements: the performance competency includes cooperation, organization of work and goal orientation, while entrepreneurship includes innovativeness, calculated risk-taking and pro-activeness. However, there is lack of empirical validation of competency concepts in organizations and this would seem crucial for obtaining reliable results from organizational research. We propose a two-step empirical validation procedure: (1) confirmation factor analysis, and (2) classification of employees. The sample consisted of 636 respondents (M = 44.5; SD = 15.1). Participants were administered a questionnaire developed for the study purpose. The reliability, measured by Cronbach’s alpha, ranged from 0.60 to 0.83 for six scales. Next, we tested the model using a confirmatory factor analysis. The two separate, single models of performance and entrepreneurial orientations fit quite well to the data, while a complex model based on the two single concepts needs further research. In the classification of employees based on the two higher order competencies we obtained four main groups of employees. Their profiles relate to those found in the literature, including so-called niche finders and top performers. Some proposal for organizations is discussed. PMID:27014111

  12. Competency assessment of nursing staff.

    PubMed

    Whelan, Lynn

    2006-01-01

    Changes in the healthcare industry have created great challenges for leaders of acute-care organizations. One of the greatest challenges is ensuring a competent nursing staff to care for patients within this changing environment (Boylan & Westra, 1998). Patients are more acutely ill and have shorter lengths of stay, placing greater demands on nurses who must demonstrate competency in caring for increasingly complex patients in a continually changing healthcare environment. Competency is defined as "the knowledge, skills, ability and behaviors that a person possesses in order to perform tasks correctly and skillfully" (O'Shea, 2002, p. 175). Competency assessment involves more than a checklist and a test. Hospitals are required to assess, maintain, demonstrate, track, and improve the competence of the staff. Competency assessment is an ongoing process of initial development, maintenance of knowledge and skills, educational consultation, remediation, and redevelopment. Methods to assess competencies include competency fairs, Performance Based Development System and online programs. Certain key people should be involved in the development of competencies. The department managers can give input related to department-specific competencies. Experienced staff members can provide valuable insight into the competencies that need to be assessed. Educators should be involved for providing the input for the methods used to validate competencies. Competencies are an important part of the work world. They are a part of a continual process to help ensure that the organization provides a high-quality care to its customers and patients.

  13. Influence of socioeconomic factors on survival after breast cancer--a nationwide cohort study of women diagnosed with breast cancer in Denmark 1983-1999.

    PubMed

    Dalton, Susanne Oksbjerg; Ross, Lone; Düring, Maria; Carlsen, Kathrine; Mortensen, Preben Bo; Lynch, John; Johansen, Christoffer

    2007-12-01

    The reasons for social inequality in breast cancer survival are far from established. Our study aims to study the importance of a range of socioeconomic factors and comorbid disorders on survival after breast cancer surgery in Denmark where the health care system is tax-funded and uniform. All 25,897 Danish women who underwent protocol-based treatment for breast cancer in 1983-1999 were identified in a clinical database and information on socioeconomic variables and both somatic and psychiatric comorbid disorders was obtained from population-based registries. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the association between socioeconomic position and overall survival and further to analyse breast cancer specific deaths in a competing risk set-up regarding all other causes of death as competing risks. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for death was reduced in women with higher education (HR, 0.91; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.85-0.98), with higher income (HR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.87-0.98) and with larger dwellings (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.85-0.96 for women living in houses larger than 150 m(2)). Presence of comorbid disorders increased the HR. An interaction between income and comorbid disorders resulting in a 15% lower survival 10 year after primary surgery in poor women with low-risk breast cancer having comorbid conditions ( approximately 65%) compared to rich women with similar breast cancer prognosis and comorbid conditions ( approximately 80%) suggests that part of the explanation for the social inequality in survival after breast cancer surgery in Denmark lies in the access to and/or compliance with management of comorbid conditions in poorer women.

  14. Death Does Matter—Cancer Risk in Patients With End-Stage Renal Disease

    PubMed Central

    Weng, Shih-Feng; Chiu, Yu-Hsien; Jan, Ren-Long; Chen, Yi-Chen; Chien, Chih-Chiang; Wang, Jhi-Joung; Chu, Chin-Chen

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) have a high mortality rate. We hypothesized that not accounting for death as a competing risk overestimates the event rate caused by ESRD. Thus, we examined the cancer risk for patients with ESRD (ESRDPos) after death as a competing risk event had been adjusted for. Patients with newly diagnosed ESRD (n = 64,299) between 1999 and 2007, together with age- and sex-matched controls without ESRD (ESRDNeg) (n = 128,592) were enrolled (1:2). In a Cox proportional hazards model that included death as a competing risk, ESRDPos patients in Taiwan had a lower overall incidence (subdistribution hazard ratio [sdHR] = 1.29) of cancer than did ESRDNeg patients in a Cox model that did not include death as a competing risk (HR = 1.70). After competing mortality had been adjusted for, ESRDPos patients ≥70 (sdHR = 0.82) and ESRDPos patients on long-term dialysis (> 5 follow-up years, sdHR = 0.62), had a lower risk for developing cancer than did ESRDNeg patients. This finding supported our hypothesis that standard survival analyses overestimate the event rate, especially when the mortality rate is high. It also showed that ESRDPos patients, when they grow older, were far less likely to develop cancer and far more likely to die because of underlying illnesses that might also affect the risk of death because of ESRD. PMID:26817891

  15. A Winter Survival Unit.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Phillips, Ronald E.

    1979-01-01

    The article is a condensation of materials from the winter survival unit of a Canadian snow ecology course. The unit covers: cold physiology, frostbite, snowblindness, hypothermia, winter campout, and survival strategies. (SB)

  16. Electronics. Occupational Competency Analysis Profile.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ohio State Univ., Columbus. Vocational Instructional Materials Lab.

    This Occupational Competency Analysis Profile (OCAP) contains a competency list verified by expert workers and developed through a modified DACUM (Developing a Curriculum) involving business, industry, labor, and community agency representatives from Ohio. This OCAP identifies the occupational, academic, and employability skills (competencies)…

  17. Engineering Technologies. State Competency Profile.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ohio State Univ., Columbus. Center on Education and Training for Employment.

    This document contains 397 competencies, grouped into 58 units, for tech prep programs in the engineering technologies cluster. The competencies were developed through collaboration of Ohio business, industry, and labor representatives and secondary and associate degree educators. The competencies are rated either "essential" (necessary…

  18. Competency Based Education: A Bibliography.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cox, Helen, Ed.

    This bibliography is a sampling of the types of publications which have appeared recently on the subject of competency based education. Emphasis is given to current (1970-76) materials and to adult career-related competencies. Titles specifically naming some phase of competency-based education are preferred above titles that emphasize performance,…

  19. Spiritual Competency Scale: Further Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dailey, Stephanie F.; Robertson, Linda A.; Gill, Carman S.

    2015-01-01

    This article describes a follow-up analysis of the Spiritual Competency Scale, which initially validated ASERVIC's (Association for Spiritual, Ethical and Religious Values in Counseling) spiritual competencies. The study examined whether the factor structure of the Spiritual Competency Scale would be supported by participants (i.e., ASERVIC…

  20. Entrepreneurship. Ohio's Competency Analysis Profile.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ohio State Univ., Columbus. Vocational Instructional Materials Lab.

    Developed through a modified DACUM (Developing a Curriculum) process involving business, industry, labor, and community agency representatives in Ohio, this document is a comprehensive and verified employer competency profile for entrepreneurship. The list contains units (with and without subunits), competencies, and competency builders that…

  1. Identification of Brigade Command Competencies

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-06-01

    level needed for each competency, (b) the extent to which each competency differentiated among superior and less effective Brigade Commanders, and (c...categorized in four competency training clusters: leadership skills , operational skills , personal capabilities, and knowledge base. The survey also

  2. Adult Functional Competency: A Summary.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Texas Univ., Austin. Div. of Extension.

    The Adult Performance Level (APL) project summary specifies the competencies which are functional to economic and educational success in society and describes devices developed for assessing those competencies. The APL theory of functional competency identifies adult needs in general knowledge areas (consumer economics, occupational knowledge,…

  3. Guide to Marketing Course Competencies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Henrico County Public Schools, Glen Allen, VA. Virginia Vocational Curriculum and Resource Center.

    This curriculum guide was developed as a model for schools in Virginia to prepare local programs of studies for the marketing program. In addition to marketing competencies for developing occupational expertise, this curriculum includes foundational competencies important for successful performance in marketing. These baseline competencies address…

  4. Competency-Based Horticulture: Floriculture.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    College of DuPage, Glen Ellyn, IL.

    This competency-based horticulture curriculum guide is designed to provide secondary and postsecondary horticulture teachers with a task-oriented program in floriculture. It contains a master resource list, a listing of floriculture resources available from various states, and 89 competency task sheets organized into nine competency areas. These…

  5. Masonry. Ohio's Competency Analysis Profile.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ohio State Univ., Columbus. Vocational Instructional Materials Lab.

    Developed through a modified DACUM (Developing a Curriculum) process involving business, industry, labor, and community agency representatives in Ohio, this document is a comprehensive and verified employer competency profile for masonry occupations. The list contains units (with and without subunits), competencies, and competency builders that…

  6. Strategic Competence and Language Teaching.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rababah, Ghaleb Ahmed

    This paper discusses the notion of communicative competence, particularly strategic competence in English language teaching. Strategic competence refers to the individual's ability to use communication strategies such as paraphrase, circumlocution, literal translation, lexical approximation, and mime to get their message across and to compensate…

  7. Survivability Versus Time

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joyner, James J., Sr.

    2014-01-01

    Develop Survivability vs Time Model as a decision-evaluation tool to assess various emergency egress methods used at Launch Complex 39B (LC 39B) and in the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) on NASAs Kennedy Space Center. For each hazard scenario, develop probability distributions to address statistical uncertainty resulting in survivability plots over time and composite survivability plots encompassing multiple hazard scenarios.

  8. FIRST robots compete

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    FIRST teams and their robots work to go through the right motions at the FIRST competition. Students from all over the country are at the KSC Visitor Complex for the FIRST (For Inspiration and Recognition of Science and Technology) Southeast Regional competition March 9-11 in the Rocket Garden. Teams of high school students are testing the limits of their imagination using robots they have designed, with the support of business and engineering professionals and corporate sponsors, to compete in a technological battle against other schools' robots. Of the 30 high school teams competing, 16 are Florida teams co-sponsored by NASA and KSC contractors. Local high schools participating are Astronaut, Bayside, Cocoa Beach, Eau Gallie, Melbourne, Melbourne Central Catholic, Palm Bay, Rockledge, Satellite, and Titusville.

  9. Competing Orders and Anomalies

    PubMed Central

    Moon, Eun-Gook

    2016-01-01

    A conservation law is one of the most fundamental properties in nature, but a certain class of conservation “laws” could be spoiled by intrinsic quantum mechanical effects, so-called quantum anomalies. Profound properties of the anomalies have deepened our understanding in quantum many body systems. Here, we investigate quantum anomaly effects in quantum phase transitions between competing orders and striking consequences of their presence. We explicitly calculate topological nature of anomalies of non-linear sigma models (NLSMs) with the Wess-Zumino-Witten (WZW) terms. The non-perturbative nature is directly related with the ’t Hooft anomaly matching condition: anomalies are conserved in renormalization group flow. By applying the matching condition, we show massless excitations are enforced by the anomalies in a whole phase diagram in sharp contrast to the case of the Landau-Ginzburg-Wilson theory which only has massive excitations in symmetric phases. Furthermore, we find non-perturbative criteria to characterize quantum phase transitions between competing orders. For example, in 4D, we show the two competing order parameter theories, CP(1) and the NLSM with WZW, describe different universality class. Physical realizations and experimental implication of the anomalies are also discussed. PMID:27499184

  10. Competing Orders and Anomalies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moon, Eun-Gook

    2016-08-01

    A conservation law is one of the most fundamental properties in nature, but a certain class of conservation “laws” could be spoiled by intrinsic quantum mechanical effects, so-called quantum anomalies. Profound properties of the anomalies have deepened our understanding in quantum many body systems. Here, we investigate quantum anomaly effects in quantum phase transitions between competing orders and striking consequences of their presence. We explicitly calculate topological nature of anomalies of non-linear sigma models (NLSMs) with the Wess-Zumino-Witten (WZW) terms. The non-perturbative nature is directly related with the ’t Hooft anomaly matching condition: anomalies are conserved in renormalization group flow. By applying the matching condition, we show massless excitations are enforced by the anomalies in a whole phase diagram in sharp contrast to the case of the Landau-Ginzburg-Wilson theory which only has massive excitations in symmetric phases. Furthermore, we find non-perturbative criteria to characterize quantum phase transitions between competing orders. For example, in 4D, we show the two competing order parameter theories, CP(1) and the NLSM with WZW, describe different universality class. Physical realizations and experimental implication of the anomalies are also discussed.

  11. Competing Orders and Anomalies.

    PubMed

    Moon, Eun-Gook

    2016-08-08

    A conservation law is one of the most fundamental properties in nature, but a certain class of conservation "laws" could be spoiled by intrinsic quantum mechanical effects, so-called quantum anomalies. Profound properties of the anomalies have deepened our understanding in quantum many body systems. Here, we investigate quantum anomaly effects in quantum phase transitions between competing orders and striking consequences of their presence. We explicitly calculate topological nature of anomalies of non-linear sigma models (NLSMs) with the Wess-Zumino-Witten (WZW) terms. The non-perturbative nature is directly related with the 't Hooft anomaly matching condition: anomalies are conserved in renormalization group flow. By applying the matching condition, we show massless excitations are enforced by the anomalies in a whole phase diagram in sharp contrast to the case of the Landau-Ginzburg-Wilson theory which only has massive excitations in symmetric phases. Furthermore, we find non-perturbative criteria to characterize quantum phase transitions between competing orders. For example, in 4D, we show the two competing order parameter theories, CP(1) and the NLSM with WZW, describe different universality class. Physical realizations and experimental implication of the anomalies are also discussed.

  12. Seven essential strategies for promoting and sustaining systemic cultural competence.

    PubMed

    Delphin-Rittmon, Miriam E; Andres-Hyman, Raquel; Flanagan, Elizabeth H; Davidson, Larry

    2013-03-01

    Racial and ethnic disparities are disturbing facets of the American healthcare system that document the reality of unequal treatment. Research consistently shows that patients of color experience poorer quality of care and health outcomes contributing to increased risks and accelerated mortality rates relative to their white counterparts. While initially conceptualized as an approach for increasing the responsiveness of children's behavioral health care, cultural competence has been adopted as a key strategy for eliminating racial and ethnic health disparities across the healthcare system. However, cultural competence research and practices largely focus on improving provider competencies, while agency and system level approaches for meeting the service needs of diverse populations are given less attention. In this article we offer seven essential strategies for promoting and sustaining organizational and systemic cultural competence. These strategies are to: (1) Provide executive level support and accountability, (2) Foster patient, community and stakeholder participation and partnerships, (3) Conduct organizational cultural competence assessments, (4) Develop incremental and realistic cultural competence action plans, (5) Ensure linguistic competence, (6) Diversify, develop, and retain a culturally competent workforce, and (7) Develop an agency or system strategy for managing staff and patient grievances. For each strategy we offer several recommendations for implementation.

  13. Gender specific association of TP53 polymorphisms (EX4 215G>C Arg72Pro, IVS3+40-41ins16, and IVS6+62G>A), with risk of oral cancer subtypes and overall survival of the patients.

    PubMed

    Nagam, Srivani L S S; Katta, Saritha; Prasad, Vidudala V T S

    2017-03-01

    Reports on the association of TP53 polymorphisms with oral cancer are not only limited but also not specific to site and/or gender. Hence, we examined the effect of TP53 polymorphisms (EX4 215G>C, IVS3+40-41ins16 and IVS6+62G>A) on buccal mucosa cancer (BMC) and tongue cancer (TC) risk, survival of patients in relation to risk and clinical factors, gender wise (excepting for estimating hazards ratio [HR]), using Fisher's Exact Test, Kaplan-Meier analysis, and Cox-proportional hazards models. The exonic polymorphism increased BMC and TC risk in males by 2-4-fold. The IVS3+40-41ins16 was protective against BMC and TC in both genders, whereas IVS6+62G>A protected only males against TC. Genotype combinations and haplotypes which altered the risk of cancers in males and females were different. TC males, aged 40-44 years and females, aged 55-59 years survived better than BMC patients. The IVS3+40-41ins16 polymorphism differentially impacted survival of female patients exposed to tobacco. TC patients with EX4 215GC with lymphovascular spread (LVS) and metastasis exhibited higher HR while, patients with EX4 215CC and perineural invasion (PNI) showed lower HR. Impact of the intronic variants along with clinical parameters on survival and HR estimates varied between BMC and TC. Our bioinformatics analysis revealed the presence of CTCF binding site within TP53 gene. In conclusion, the polymorphisms altered risk and survival of BMC and TC in a gender specific manner, which varied with mode of tobacco and/or alcohol use. The current study, therefore underscores strong need for research, stratified by tumor site and gender. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Surviving Atmospheric Spacecraft Breakup

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Szewczyk, Nathaniel J.; Conley, Catharine A.

    2003-01-01

    In essence, to survival a spacecraft breakup an animal must not experience a lethal event. Much as with surviving aircraft breakup, dissipation of lethal forces via breakup of the craft around the organism is likely to greatly increase the odds of survival. As spacecraft can travel higher and faster than aircraft, it is often assumed that spacecraft breakup is not a survivable event. Similarly, the belief that aircraft breakup or crashes are not survivable events is still prevalent in the general population. As those of us involved in search and rescue know, it is possible to survive both aircraft breakup and crashes. Here we make the first report of an animal, C. elegans, surviving atmospheric breakup of the spacecraft supporting it and discuss both the lethal events these animals had to escape and the implications implied for search and rescue following spacecraft breakup.

  15. Dementia and legal competency.

    PubMed

    Filaković, Pavo; Erić, Anamarija Petek; Mihanović, Mate; Glavina, Trpimir; Molnar, Sven

    2011-06-01

    The legal competency or capability to exercise rights is level of judgment and decision-making ability needed to manage one's own affairs and to sign official documents. With some exceptions, the person entitles this right in age of majority. It is acquired without legal procedures, however the annulment of legal capacity requires a juristic process. This resolution may not be final and could be revoked thorough the procedure of reverting legal capacity - fully or partially. Given the increasing number of persons with dementia, they are often subjects of legal expertise concerning their legal capacity. On the other part, emphasis on the civil rights of mentally ill also demands their maximal protection. Therefore such distinctive issue is approached with particular attention. The approach in determination of legal competency is more focused on gradation of it's particular aspects instead of existing dual concept: legally capable - legally incapable. The main assumption represents how person with dementia is legally capable and should enjoy all the rights, privileges and obligations as other citizens do. The aspects of legal competency for which person with dementia is going to be deprived, due to protection of one's rights and interests, are determined in legal procedure and then passed over to the guardian decided by court. Partial annulment of legal competency is measure applied when there is even one existing aspect of preserved legal capability (pension disposition, salary or pension disposition, ability of concluding contract, making testament, concluding marriage, divorce, choosing whereabouts, independent living, right to vote, right to decide course of treatment ect.). This measure is most often in favour of the patient and rarely for protection of other persons and their interests. Physicians are expected to precisely describe early dementia symptoms which may influence assessment of specific aspects involved in legal capacity (memory loss, impaired task

  16. Integrated risk management for business survival

    SciTech Connect

    Piatt, J.A.

    1992-06-01

    During the recent recession, many businesses have had to take severe measures to cut costs. The Department of Defense has also been faced with the need to cut costs to offset the expense of the Gulf War and a shrinking budget due to the fall of communism around the world. With the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and dissolution of the Soviet Union, there has been an increasing demand to reduce the defense budget to provide the so-called ``peace dividend`` to deal with social and economic problems at home. President Bush`s State of the Union Message in February 1992 called for deeper cuts than the 25% previously anticipated. It also called for these cuts to occur sooner than expected with $50 billion in defense cuts anticipated over the fiscal 1992--1997 period. The Department of Defense plan for force resizing calls for 25-30% reductions over time. This report discusses how the department of defense is trying to deal with the management of this crisis.

  17. Integrated risk management for business survival

    SciTech Connect

    Piatt, J.A.

    1992-06-01

    During the recent recession, many businesses have had to take severe measures to cut costs. The Department of Defense has also been faced with the need to cut costs to offset the expense of the Gulf War and a shrinking budget due to the fall of communism around the world. With the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and dissolution of the Soviet Union, there has been an increasing demand to reduce the defense budget to provide the so-called peace dividend'' to deal with social and economic problems at home. President Bush's State of the Union Message in February 1992 called for deeper cuts than the 25% previously anticipated. It also called for these cuts to occur sooner than expected with $50 billion in defense cuts anticipated over the fiscal 1992--1997 period. The Department of Defense plan for force resizing calls for 25-30% reductions over time. This report discusses how the department of defense is trying to deal with the management of this crisis.

  18. The ethics of cultural competence.

    PubMed

    Paasche-Orlow, Michael

    2004-04-01

    Cultural competence curricula have proliferated throughout medical education. Awareness of the moral underpinnings of this movement can clarify the purpose of such curricula for educators and trainees and serve as a way to evaluate the relationship between the ethics of cultural competence and normative Western medical ethics. Though rarely stated explicitly, the essential principles of cultural competence are (1) acknowledgement of the importance of culture in people's lives, (2) respect for cultural differences, and (3) minimization of any negative consequences of cultural differences. Culturally competent clinicians promote these principles by learning about culture, embracing pluralism, and proactive accommodation. Generally, culturally competent care will advance patient autonomy and justice. In this sense, cultural competence and Western medical ethics are mutually supportive movements. However, Western bioethics and the personal ethical commitments of many medical trainees will place limits on the extent to which they will endorse pluralism and accommodation. Specifically, if the values of cultural competence are thought to embrace ethical relativity, inexorable conflicts will be created. The author presents his view of the ethics of cultural competence and places the concepts of cultural competence in the context of Western moral theory. Clarity about the ethics of cultural competence can help educators promote and evaluate trainees' integration of their own moral intuitions, Western medical ethics, and the ethics of cultural competence.

  19. Informatics competencies for nurse practitioners.

    PubMed

    Curran, Christine R

    2003-08-01

    Informatics knowledge and skills are essential if clinicians are to master the large volume of information generated in healthcare today. Thus, it is vital that informatics competencies be defined for nursing and incorporated into both curricula and practice. Staggers, Gassert, and Curran have defined informatics competencies for four general levels of nursing practice. However, informatics competencies by role (eg, those specific for advanced practice nursing) have not been defined and validated. This article presents an initial proposed list of informatics competencies essential for nurse practitioner education and practice. To this list, derived from the work of Staggers et al., 1 has been added informatics competencies related to evidence-based practice. Two nurse informaticists and six nurse practitioners, who are program directors, were involved in the development of the proposed competencies. The next step will be to validate these competencies via research.

  20. Targeting Cell Survival Proteins for Cancer Cell Death

    PubMed Central

    Pandey, Manoj K.; Prasad, Sahdeo; Tyagi, Amit Kumar; Deb, Lokesh; Huang, Jiamin; Karelia, Deepkamal N.; Amin, Shantu G.; Aggarwal, Bharat B.

    2016-01-01

    Escaping from cell death is one of the adaptations that enable cancer cells to stave off anticancer therapies. The key players in avoiding apoptosis are collectively known as survival proteins. Survival proteins comprise the Bcl-2, inhibitor of apoptosis (IAP), and heat shock protein (HSP) families. The aberrant expression of these proteins is associated with a range of biological activities that promote cancer cell survival, proliferation, and resistance to therapy. Several therapeutic strategies that target survival proteins are based on mimicking BH3 domains or the IAP-binding motif or competing with ATP for the Hsp90 ATP-binding pocket. Alternative strategies, including use of nutraceuticals, transcriptional repression, and antisense oligonucleotides, provide options to target survival proteins. This review focuses on the role of survival proteins in chemoresistance and current therapeutic strategies in preclinical or clinical trials that target survival protein signaling pathways. Recent approaches to target survival proteins-including nutraceuticals, small-molecule inhibitors, peptides, and Bcl-2-specific mimetic are explored. Therapeutic inventions targeting survival proteins are promising strategies to inhibit cancer cell survival and chemoresistance. However, complete eradication of resistance is a distant dream. For a successful clinical outcome, pretreatment with novel survival protein inhibitors alone or in combination with conventional therapies holds great promise. PMID:26927133

  1. Local survival of Dunlin wintering in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Warnock, N.; Page, G.W.; Sandercock, B.K.

    1997-01-01

    We estimated local annual survival of 1,051 individually color-banded Dunlin (Calidris alpina) at Bolinas Lagoon, California from 1979 to 1992. Resighting rates for birds banded as adults varied significantly among years, and resighting rates for first-year birds varied by sex and year. No significant differences in local survival rates were found between males and females in any age classes. First-year birds had lower local survival rates than adults. We suspect that raptor predation accounted for much of this difference and other variation in survival rates. Adult Dunlin had lower local survival rates in the year of capture than in subsequent years. Variation in resighting of some groups of individuals including transient Dunlin may account for some differences. However, capture and release of Dunlin may induce short-term behavioral changes that increase the risk of depredation by avian predators within the first few days after capture.

  2. Bayesian path specific frailty models for multi-state survival data with applications.

    PubMed

    de Castro, Mário; Chen, Ming-Hui; Zhang, Yuanye

    2015-09-01

    Multi-state models can be viewed as generalizations of both the standard and competing risks models for survival data. Models for multi-state data have been the theme of many recent published works. Motivated by bone marrow transplant data, we propose a Bayesian model using the gap times between two successive events in a path of events experienced by a subject. Path specific frailties are introduced to capture the dependence structure of the gap times in the paths with two or more states. Under improper prior distributions for the parameters, we establish propriety of the posterior distribution. An efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm is developed for drawing samples from the posterior distribution. An extensive simulation study is carried out to examine the empirical performance of the proposed approach. A bone marrow transplant data set is analyzed in detail to further demonstrate the proposed methodology.

  3. Bayesian Path Specific Frailty Models for Multi-state Survival Data with Applications

    PubMed Central

    de Castro, Mário; Chen, Ming-Hui; Zhang, Yuanye

    2015-01-01

    Summary Multi-state models can be viewed as generalizations of both the standard and competing risks models for survival data. Models for multi-state data have been the theme of many recent published works. Motivated by bone marrow transplant data, we propose a Bayesian model using the gap times between two successive events in a path of events experienced by a subject. Path specific frailties are introduced to capture the dependence structure of the gap times in the paths with two or more states. Under improper prior distributions for the parameters, we establish propriety of the posterior distribution. An efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm is developed for drawing samples from the posterior distribution. An extensive simulation study is carried out to examine the empirical performance of the proposed approach. A bone marrow transplant data set is analyzed in detail to further demonstrate the proposed methodology. PMID:25762198

  4. Aircraft Survivability. Summer 2011

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-01-01

    Survivability Program Office SUMMER 2011 craShworthineSS & personnel casualties Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public...unclassified Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 Aircraft Survivability is published three times a year by the Joint...and stroking seats. The knowledge gained from studying Vietnam crash data was consolidated into the Crash Survival Design Guide (CSDG), which

  5. Aircraft Survivability. Spring 2009

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-01-01

    Surviving an Aircraft Crash with Airbag Restraintsby Thomas Barth Inflatable restraint solutions have improved the survivability of commercial...Surviving an Aircraft Crash with Airbag Restraints by Thomas Barth Transport Aircraft Interiors The AmSafe Aviation Airbag entered service on commercial...all night.” Keithley also noted that, in his early days at BRL, Walt teamed up with a group of like-minded innovators, including Jim Foulk, Roland

  6. S.O.S. Surviving or Surviving

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hersh, Richard H.; Whiteman, James

    1973-01-01

    A High School course, General Studies Survival Curriculum, was designed to aid students in problem solving in a complex society. Areas of concern were psychology, consumer economics, environmental studies, law and society, religion and values, ethnic studies, applied aesthetics, creative studies, occupations and futurism. (JB)

  7. Coronary-Heart-Disease-Associated Genetic Variant at the COL4A1/COL4A2 Locus Affects COL4A1/COL4A2 Expression, Vascular Cell Survival, Atherosclerotic Plaque Stability and Risk of Myocardial Infarction

    PubMed Central

    Pu, Xiangyuan; Ren, Meixia; An, Weiwei; Zhang, Ruoxin; Yan, Shunying; Situ, Haiteng; He, Xinjie; Chen, Yequn; Tan, Xuerui; Xiao, Qingzhong; Tucker, Arthur T.; Caulfield, Mark J.; Ye, Shu

    2016-01-01

    Genome-wide association studies have revealed an association between coronary heart disease (CHD) and genetic variation on chromosome 13q34, with the lead single nucleotide polymorphism rs4773144 residing in the COL4A2 gene in this genomic region. We investigated the functional effects of this genetic variant. Analyses of primary cultures of vascular smooth muscle cells (SMCs) and endothelial cells (ECs) from different individuals showed a difference between rs4773144 genotypes in COL4A2 and COL4A1 expression levels, being lowest in the G/G genotype, intermediate in A/G and highest in A/A. Chromatin immunoprecipitation followed by allelic imbalance assays of primary cultures of SMCs and ECs that were of the A/G genotype revealed that the G allele had lower transcriptional activity than the A allele. Electrophoretic mobility shift assays and luciferase reporter gene assays showed that a short DNA sequence encompassing the rs4773144 site interacted with a nuclear protein, with lower efficiency for the G allele, and that the G allele sequence had lower activity in driving reporter gene expression. Analyses of cultured SMCs from different individuals demonstrated that cells of the G/G genotype had higher apoptosis rates. Immunohistochemical and histological examinations of ex vivo atherosclerotic coronary arteries from different individuals disclosed that atherosclerotic plaques with the G/G genotype had lower collagen IV abundance and thinner fibrous cap, a hallmark of unstable, rupture-prone plaques. A study of a cohort of patients with angiographically documented coronary artery disease showed that patients of the G/G genotype had higher rates of myocardial infarction, a phenotype often caused by plaque rupture. These results indicate that the CHD-related genetic variant at the COL4A2 locus affects COL4A2/COL4A1 expression, SMC survival, and atherosclerotic plaque stability, providing a mechanistic explanation for the association between the genetic variant and CHD

  8. Survival of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Puerto Rico

    PubMed Central

    MARRERO, CARLOS ROMERO; ORTIZ, ANA P.; PÉREZ, CYNTHIA M.; PÉREZ, JAVIER; TORRES, ESTHER A.

    2013-01-01

    Background Blacks and Hispanics in the United States (US) have the lowest survival rates of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), mainly associated to the presence of advanced disease at diagnosis when intervention is least beneficial. This study compared the survival distribution and relative survival of HCC in Puerto Rico (PR) during 1988-1992 and 1998-2002. Methods All HCC cases in the PR Central Cancer Registry database for 1988-1992 (n=306) and 1998-2002 (n=333) were identified. Patient characteristics and clinical variables were compared between study periods. Survival by age at diagnosis, sex, tumor stage and treatment was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and survival curves were compared using the Wilcoxon test. A Cox proportional hazards model was employed to assess the effect of period of diagnosis on survival, after adjusting for confounders. One- and three-year survival rates were also calculated. Results Patients diagnosed during 1998-2002 (median: 3.08 months, 95% CI: 2.30-4.16) had a longer observed survival than those diagnosed from 1988-1992 (median: 1.80 months, 95% CI: 1.44-2.52). A significant interaction was observed between the variables age and period of diagnosis, where only among persons aged ≥ 60 years the risk of HCC death was lower (sex-adjusted HR=O.72; 95%CI: 0.59-0.88) in patients diagnosed during 1998-2002 as compared to those diagnosed during 1988-1992. The overall one- and three-year relative survival during 1998-2002 was approximately 6% (22.4% vs.16.6%) and 2% higher (9.0% vs. 6.7%) respectively, as compared to 1988-1992. Conclusion We observed a temporal improvement in the survival of HCC in PR during the last decade. However, this survival is inferior to the one observed in the US population. Further studies are needed to identify factors that explain these disparities. PMID:19530551

  9. The Analysis of Rush Orders Risk in Supply Chain: A Simulation Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mahfouz, Amr; Arisha, Amr

    2011-01-01

    Satisfying customers by delivering demands at agreed time, with competitive prices, and in satisfactory quality level are crucial requirements for supply chain survival. Incidence of risks in supply chain often causes sudden disruptions in the processes and consequently leads to customers losing their trust in a company's competence. Rush orders are considered to be one of the main types of supply chain risks due to their negative impact on the overall performance, Using integrated definition modeling approaches (i.e. IDEF0 & IDEF3) and simulation modeling technique, a comprehensive integrated model has been developed to assess rush order risks and examine two risk mitigation strategies. Detailed functions sequence and objects flow were conceptually modeled to reflect on macro and micro levels of the studied supply chain. Discrete event simulation models were then developed to assess and investigate the mitigation strategies of rush order risks, the objective of this is to minimize order cycle time and cost.

  10. Risk of Recurrence in Laryngeal Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Sørum Falk, Ragnhild; Folkvard Evensen, Jan; Boysen, Morten; Brøndbo, Kjell

    2016-01-01

    A cohort study was undertaken to analyze the risk of recurrence among 1616 patients with primary squamous cell carcinoma of the larynx from 1983 to 2010 at a single, tertiary academic center in Oslo, Norway. The cohort was followed from the date of diagnosis to September 2011. Competing risk regression analysis assessed the association between various risk factors and the risk of recurrence, where death was considered a competing event. Recurrence was observed in 368 patients (23%) during the study period. The majority (71%) of recurrences involved the location of the primary tumor. The overall risk of recurrence during the first three years after initiating treatment was 20.5%. Increased risk of recurrence was observed in patients with supraglottic cancer, younger patients, those with T2–T3 tumors and in patients treated in the earlier part of the study period. Significant factors for recurrence in glottic carcinomas were age, treatment in the earlier part of the study and T-status, whereas age was a significant factor in supraglottic cancer. N-status appeared less significant. In conclusion, follow-up of laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma should place particular emphasis on the site of the primary tumor, younger patients, cases of supraglottic cancer and T2-T4 primary tumors, especially during the first three years after treatment. More studies are needed to assess the impact of surgical versus non-surgical treatment, and eventually the significance of recurrence, for disease-specific and overall survival in cases of advanced laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma. PMID:27716797

  11. Juvenile Competency to Stand Trial.

    PubMed

    Stepanyan, Sofia T; Sidhu, Shawn S; Bath, Eraka

    2016-01-01

    Competency to stand trial is interpreted as a protected due process right for all defendants and is defined as a defendant's fundamental knowledge and understanding of the criminal charges being filed, roles and procedures within the courtroom, and a general ability to work with the defense counsel. Questions of competency are most often raised by the judge, defense, or the prosecution, and competency evaluations are most often completed by psychiatrists or psychologists with forensic training or work experience. Mental illness, intellectual disability, developmental disorders, and developmental immaturity are the 4 main factors considered in most juvenile competency evaluations.

  12. Worker Perceptions of Skills Necessary for Survival in the World of Work. Thesis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Neil, Sharon Lund

    The study was conducted to identify occupational survival skills--the basic knowledges, traits, and competencies necessary to maintain a job. A list of 27 basic occupational survival skills was developed, involving the following areas: interpersonal relations and communications; personal characteristics; decision making and problem solving; job…

  13. Survival in Extreme Conditions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bloom, Martin; Halsema, James

    1983-01-01

    Explores the psychosocial and environmental configurations involved in the survival of 500 civilians in a Japanese internment camp in the Philippines during World War II. Although conditions were very harsh, the survival rate of this group was better than expected. Discusses available demographic, social organizational, and cultural information.…

  14. Universal dimensions of social cognition: warmth and competence.

    PubMed

    Fiske, Susan T; Cuddy, Amy J C; Glick, Peter

    2007-02-01

    Like all perception, social perception reflects evolutionary pressures. In encounters with conspecifics, social animals must determine, immediately, whether the "other" is friend or foe (i.e. intends good or ill) and, then, whether the "other" has the ability to enact those intentions. New data confirm these two universal dimensions of social cognition: warmth and competence. Promoting survival, these dimensions provide fundamental social structural answers about competition and status. People perceived as warm and competent elicit uniformly positive emotions and behavior, whereas those perceived as lacking warmth and competence elicit uniform negativity. People classified as high on one dimension and low on the other elicit predictable, ambivalent affective and behavioral reactions. These universal dimensions explain bo