Snowfall in the Northwest Iberian Peninsula: Synoptic Circulation Patterns and Their Influence on Snow Day Trends

PubMed Central

Merino, Andrés; Fernández, Sergio; Hermida, Lucía; López, Laura; Sánchez, José Luis; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Gascón, Estíbaliz

2014-01-01

In recent decades, a decrease in snowfall attributed to the effects of global warming (among other causes) has become evident. However, it is reasonable to investigate meteorological causes for such decrease, by analyzing changes in synoptic scale patterns. On the Iberian Peninsula, the Castilla y León region in the northwest consists of a central plateau surrounded by mountain ranges. This creates snowfalls that are considered both an important water resource and a transportation risk. In this work, we develop a classification of synoptic situations that produced important snowfalls at observation stations in the major cities of Castilla y León from 1960 to 2011. We used principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster techniques to define four synoptic patterns conducive to snowfall in the region. Once we confirmed homogeneity of the series and serial correlation of the snowfallday records at the stations from 1960 to 2011, we carried out a Mann-Kendall test. The results show a negative trend at most stations, so there are a decreased number of snowfall days. Finally, variations in these meteorological variables were related to changes in the frequencies of snow events belonging to each synoptic pattern favorable for snowfall production at the observatory locations. PMID:25152912

Atmospheric circulation patterns associated to the variability of River Ammer floods: evidence from observed and proxy data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimbu, N.; Czymzik, M.; Ionita, M.; Lohmann, G.; Brauer, A.

2015-09-01

The relationship between the frequency of River Ammer floods (southern Germany) and atmospheric circulation variability is investigated based on observational Ammer discharge data back to 1926 and a flood layer time series from varved sediments of the downstream Lake Ammersee for the pre-instrumental period back to 1766. A composite analysis reveals that, at synoptic time scales, observed River Ammer floods are associated with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean towards the Ammer region, a pronounced trough over Western Europe as well as enhanced potential vorticity at upper levels. We argue that this synoptic scale configuration can trigger heavy precipitation and floods in the Ammer region. Interannual to multidecadal increases in flood frequency as recorded in the instrumental discharge record are associated to a wave-train pattern extending from the North Atlantic to western Asia with a prominent negative center over western Europe. A similar atmospheric circulation pattern is associated to increases in flood layer frequency in the Lake Ammersee sediment record during the pre-instrumental period. We argue that the complete flood layer time-series from Lake Ammersee sediments covering the last 5500 years, contains information about atmospheric circulation variability on inter-annual to millennial time-scales.

Synoptic circulation and temperature pattern during severe wildland fires

Treesearch

Warren E. Heilman

1996-01-01

Large-scale changes in the atmosphere associated with a globally changed climate and changes in climatic variability may have important regional impacts on the frequency and severity of wildland fires in the future.

Atmospheric circulation classification comparison based on wildfires in Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira, M. G.; Trigo, R. M.

2009-04-01

Atmospheric circulation classifications are not a simple description of atmospheric states but a tool to understand and interpret the atmospheric processes and to model the relation between atmospheric circulation and surface climate and other related variables (Radan Huth et al., 2008). Classifications were initially developed with weather forecasting purposes, however with the progress in computer processing capability, new and more robust objective methods were developed and applied to large datasets prompting atmospheric circulation classification methods to one of the most important fields in synoptic and statistical climatology. Classification studies have been extensively used in climate change studies (e.g. reconstructed past climates, recent observed changes and future climates), in bioclimatological research (e.g. relating human mortality to climatic factors) and in a wide variety of synoptic climatological applications (e.g. comparison between datasets, air pollution, snow avalanches, wine quality, fish captures and forest fires). Likewise, atmospheric circulation classifications are important for the study of the role of weather in wildfire occurrence in Portugal because the daily synoptic variability is the most important driver of local weather conditions (Pereira et al., 2005). In particular, the objective classification scheme developed by Trigo and DaCamara (2000) to classify the atmospheric circulation affecting Portugal have proved to be quite useful in discriminating the occurrence and development of wildfires as well as the distribution over Portugal of surface climatic variables with impact in wildfire activity such as maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation. This work aims to present: (i) an overview the existing circulation classification for the Iberian Peninsula, and (ii) the results of a comparison study between these atmospheric circulation classifications based on its relation with wildfires and relevant meteorological variables. To achieve these objectives we consider the main classifications for Iberia developed within the framework of COST action 733 (Radan Huth et al., 2008). This European project aims to provide a wide range of atmospheric circulation classifications for Europe and sub-regions (http://www.cost733.org/) with an ambitious objective of assessing, comparing and classifying all relevant weather situations in Europe. Pereira et al. (2005) "Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal". Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,129, 11-25. Radan Huth et al. (2008) "Classifications of Atmospheric circulation patterns. Recent advances and applications". Trends and Directions in Climate Research: Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 1146: 105-152. doi: 10.1196/annals.1446.019. Trigo R.M., DaCamara C. (2000) "Circulation Weather Types and their impact on the precipitation regime in Portugal". Int J of Climatology, 20, 1559-1581.

Associations between ozone and morbidity using the Spatial Synoptic Classification system

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Synoptic circulation patterns (large-scale tropospheric motion systems) affect air pollution and, potentially, air-pollution-morbidity associations. We evaluated the effect of synoptic circulation patterns (air masses) on the association between ozone and hospital admissions for asthma and myocardial infarction (MI) among adults in North Carolina. Methods Daily surface meteorology data (including precipitation, wind speed, and dew point) for five selected cities in North Carolina were obtained from the U.S. EPA Air Quality System (AQS), which were in turn based on data from the National Climatic Data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We used the Spatial Synoptic Classification system to classify each day of the 9-year period from 1996 through 2004 into one of seven different air mass types: dry polar, dry moderate, dry tropical, moist polar, moist moderate, moist tropical, or transitional. Daily 24-hour maximum 1-hour ambient concentrations of ozone were obtained from the AQS. Asthma and MI hospital admissions data for the 9-year period were obtained from the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services. Generalized linear models were used to assess the association of the hospitalizations with ozone concentrations and specific air mass types, using pollutant lags of 0 to 5 days. We examined the effect across cities on days with the same air mass type. In all models we adjusted for dew point and day-of-the-week effects related to hospital admissions. Results Ozone was associated with asthma under dry tropical (1- to 5-day lags), transitional (3- and 4-day lags), and extreme moist tropical (0-day lag) air masses. Ozone was associated with MI only under the extreme moist tropical (5-day lag) air masses. Conclusions Elevated ozone levels are associated with dry tropical, dry moderate, and moist tropical air masses, with the highest ozone levels being associated with the dry tropical air mass. Certain synoptic circulation patterns/air masses in conjunction with ambient ozone levels were associated with increased asthma and MI hospitalizations. PMID:21609456

Synoptic typing: interdisciplinary application methods with three practical hydroclimatological examples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siegert, C. M.; Leathers, D. J.; Levia, D. F.

2017-05-01

Synoptic classification is a methodology that represents diverse atmospheric variables and allows researchers to relate large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns to regional- and small-scale terrestrial processes. Synoptic classification has often been applied to questions concerning the surface environment. However, full applicability has been under-utilized to date, especially in disciplines such as hydroclimatology, which are intimately linked to atmospheric inputs. This paper aims to (1) outline the development of a daily synoptic calendar for the Mid-Atlantic (USA), (2) define seasonal synoptic patterns occurring in the region, and (3) provide hydroclimatological examples whereby the cascading response of precipitation characteristics, soil moisture, and streamflow are explained by synoptic classification. Together, achievement of these objectives serves as a guide for development and use of a synoptic calendar for hydroclimatological studies. In total 22 unique synoptic types were identified, derived from a combination of 12 types occurring in the winter (DJF), 13 in spring (MAM), 9 in summer (JJA), and 11 in autumn (SON). This includes six low pressure systems, four high pressure systems, one cold front, three north/northwest flow regimes, three south/southwest flow regimes, and five weakly defined regimes. Pairwise comparisons indicated that 84.3 % had significantly different rainfall magnitudes, 86.4 % had different rainfall durations, and 84.7 % had different rainfall intensities. The largest precipitation-producing classifications were not restricted to low pressure systems, but rather to patterns with access to moisture sources from the Atlantic Ocean and easterly (on-shore) winds, which transport moisture inland. These same classifications resulted in comparable rates of soil moisture recharge and streamflow discharge, illustrating the applicability of synoptic classification for a range of hydroclimatological research objectives.

Meteorological Drivers of West Antarctic Ice Sheet and Ice Shelf Surface Melt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, R. C.; Nicolas, J. P.; Bromwich, D. H.; Norris, J. R.; Lubin, D.

2017-12-01

We identify synoptic patterns and surface energy balance components driving warming and surface melting on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and ice shelves using reanalysis and satellite remote sensing data from 1973-present. We have developed a synoptic climatology of atmospheric circulation patterns during the summer melt season using k-means cluster and composite analysis of daily 700-mb geopotential height and near-surface air temperature and wind fields from the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis. Surface melt occurrence is detected in satellite passive microwave brightness temperature observations (K-band, horizontal polarization) beginning with the NASA Nimbus-5 Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer (ESMR) and continuing with its more familiar descendants SMMR, SSM/I and SSMIS. To diagnose synoptic precursors and physical processes driving surface melt we combine the circulation climatology and multi-decadal records of cloud cover with surface radiative fluxes from the Extended AVHRR Polar Pathfinder (APP-x) project. We identify three distinct modes of regional summer West Antarctic warming since 1979 involving anomalous ridging over West Antarctica (WA) and the Amundsen Sea (AS). During the 1970s, ESMR data reveal four extensive melt events on the Ross Sea sector of the WAIS also linked to AS blocking. We therefore define an Amundsen Sea Blocking Index (ASBI). The ASBI and synoptic circulation pattern occurrence frequencies are correlated with the tropical Pacific (ENSO) and high latitude Southern Annular Mode (SAM) indices and the West Antarctic melt index. Surface melt in WA is favored by enhanced downwelling infrared and turbulent sensible heat fluxes associated with intrusions of warm, moist marine air. Consistent with recent findings from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE), marine advection to the Ross sector is favored by El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific and a negative SAM. We also find that El Niño-related blocking favors warming and melting on the marine-based ice streams draining from Wilkes Basin, East Antarctica.

Low-frequency climate anomalies, changes in synoptic scale circulation patterns and statistics of extreme events over south-east Poland during the Last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slawinska, J. M.; Bartoszek, K.; Gabriel, C. J.

2016-12-01

Long-term predictions of changes in extreme event frequency are of utmost importance due to their high societal and economic impact. Yet, current projections are of limited skills as they rely on satellite records that are relatively short compared to the timescale of interest, and also due to the presence of a significant anthropogenic trend superimposed onto other low-frequency variabilities. Novel simulations of past climates provide unique opportunity to separate external perturbations from internal climate anomalies and to attribute the latter to systematic changes in different types of synoptic scale circulation and distributions of high-frequency events. Here we study such changes by employing the Last Millennium Ensemble of climate simulations carried out with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, focusing in particular on decadal changes in frequency of extreme precipitation events over south-east Poland. We analyze low-frequency modulations of dominant patterns of synoptic scale circulations over Europe and their dependence on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, along with their coupling with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Moreover, we examine whether some decades of persistently anomalous statistics of extreme events can be attributed to externally forced (e.g., via volcanic eruptions) perturbations of the North Atlantic climate. In the end, we discuss the possible linkages and physical mechanisms connecting volcanic eruptions, low-frequency variabilities of North Atlantic climate and changes in statistics of high impact weather, and compare briefly our results with some historical and paleontological records.

Future Changes in Autumn Flood Type and Frequency in Pacific Northwest North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menounos, B.; Cannon, A. J.; Radic, V.; Moore, R. D.; Dery, S. J.; Jackson, P. L.; Anslow, F. S.

2013-12-01

During the 20th and early 21st century, autumn storms in the Pacific Northwest of North America - PNWNA (coastal British Columbia and Washington) caused widespread flooding and landslides. Understanding how these intense storms are likely to change in the future is important given their potential to harm people and cause widespread damage, but assessing these changes using climate models is difficult. Parameterization of precipitation in general circulation and regional climate models (GCM, RCM) is prone to error, especially in the mountainous terrain of the PNWNA. High computational demands of RCMs also limits their use in assessing changes in flood type and frequency for a suite of GCM and emission scenarios. We instead focus our efforts on understanding atmospheric circulation patterns responsible for historical autumn flooding (15 August - 31 December) and examine how these synoptic conditions are likely to change under future emission scenarios. Our analysis includes identification of extreme events (runoff and precipitation) in streamflow and precipitation records from coastal Washington and British Columbia for the period 1948-2010. Our methods to link the instrumental record of extreme autumn events to atmospheric conditions (500 and 850 hPa geopotential height and integrated vapor transport obtained from NCEP and CFSR reanalysis) include: (1) compositing of streamflow and precipitation events (environment-to-circulation); (2) self organizing map synoptic classification (circulation-to-environment); and (3) regression tree synoptic classification (hybrid of environment-to-circulation and circulation-to-environment). We then evaluate changes in flood-generating synoptic types in the CMIP5 ensemble over the period 2010-2100. Our analysis indicates that, as expected, most floods are associated with atmospheric river events that are commonly associated with upper level, quasi stationary low- and high-pressure systems respectively located in the Gulf of Alaska and east of the PNWNA. Based on our initial analysis of the CMIP5 data, we note an increase in autumn flood-producing synoptic weather types for the PNWNA. We discuss the implications of increased autumn flooding to communities and infrastructure.

An analysis of the synoptic and climatological applicability of circulation type classifications for Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broderick, Ciaran; Fealy, Rowan

2013-04-01

Circulation type classifications (CTCs) compiled as part of the COST733 Action, entitled 'Harmonisation and Application of Weather Type Classifications for European Regions', are examined for their synoptic and climatological applicability to Ireland based on their ability to characterise surface temperature and precipitation. In all 16 different objective classification schemes, representative of four different methodological approaches to circulation typing (optimization algorithms, threshold based methods, eigenvector techniques and leader algorithms) are considered. Several statistical metrics which variously quantify the ability of CTCs to discretize daily data into well-defined homogeneous groups are used to evaluate and compare different approaches to synoptic typing. The records from 14 meteorological stations located across the island of Ireland are used in the study. The results indicate that while it was not possible to identify a single optimum classification or approach to circulation typing - conditional on the location and surface variables considered - a number of general assertions regarding the performance of different schemes can be made. The findings for surface temperature indicate that that those classifications based on predefined thresholds (e.g. Litynski, GrossWetterTypes and original Lamb Weather Type) perform well, as do the Kruizinga and Lund classification schemes. Similarly for precipitation predefined type classifications return high skill scores, as do those classifications derived using some optimization procedure (e.g. SANDRA, Self Organizing Maps and K-Means clustering). For both temperature and precipitation the results generally indicate that the classifications perform best for the winter season - reflecting the closer coupling between large-scale circulation and surface conditions during this period. In contrast to the findings for temperature, spatial patterns in the performance of classifications were more evident for precipitation. In the case of this variable those more westerly synoptic stations open to zonal airflow and less influenced by regional scale forcings generally exhibited a stronger link with large-scale circulation.

Synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions associated with flash flooding in watersheds of the Catskill Mountains, New York, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teale, N. G.; Quiring, S. M.

2015-12-01

Understanding flash flooding is important in unfiltered watersheds, such as portions of the New York City water supply system (NYCWSS), as water quality is degraded by turbidity associated with flooding. To further understand flash flooding in watersheds of the NYCWSS, synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions most frequently associated with flash flooding between 1987 and 2013 were examined. Flash floods were identified during this time period using USGS 15-minute discharge data at the Esopus Creek near Allaben, NY and Neversink River at Claryville, NY gauges. Overall, 25 flash floods were detected, occurring over 17 separate flash flood days. These flash flood days were compared to the days on which flash flood warnings encompassing the study area was issued by the National Weather Service. The success rate for which the flash flood warnings for Ulster County coincided with flash flood in the study watershed was 0.09, demonstrating the highly localized nature of flash flooding in the Catskill Mountain region. The synoptic-scale atmospheric patterns influencing the study area were characterized by a principal component analysis and k-means clustering of NCEP/NCAR 500 mb geopotential height reanalysis data. This procedure was executed in Spatial Synoptic Typer Tools 4.0. While 17 unique synoptic patterns were identified, only 3 types were strongly associated with flash flooding events. A strong southwesterly flow suggesting advection of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico is shown in composites of these 3 types. This multiscalar study thereby links flash flooding in the NYCWSS with synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation.Understanding flash flooding is important in unfiltered watersheds, such as portions of the New York City water supply system (NYCWSS), as water quality is degraded by turbidity associated with flooding. To further understand flash flooding in watersheds of the NYCWSS, synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions most frequently associated with flash flooding between 1987 and 2013 were examined. Flash floods were identified during this time period using USGS 15-minute discharge data at the Esopus Creek near Allaben, NY and Neversink River at Claryville, NY gauges. Overall, 25 flash floods were detected, occurring over 17 separate flash flood days. These flash flood days were compared to the days on which flash flood warnings encompassing the study area was issued by the National Weather Service. The success rate for which the flash flood warnings for Ulster County coincided with flash flood in the study watershed was 0.09, demonstrating the highly localized nature of flash flooding in the Catskill Mountain region. The synoptic-scale atmospheric patterns influencing the study area were characterized by a principal component analysis and k-means clustering of NCEP/NCAR 500 mb geopotential height reanalysis data. This procedure was executed in Spatial Synoptic Typer Tools 4.0. While 17 unique synoptic patterns were identified, only 3 types were strongly associated with flash flooding events. A strong southwesterly flow suggesting advection of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico is shown in composites of these 3 types. This multiscalar study thereby links flash flooding in the NYCWSS with synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation.

Summarising climate and air quality (ozone) data on self-organising maps: a Sydney case study.

PubMed

Jiang, Ningbo; Betts, Alan; Riley, Matt

2016-02-01

This paper explores the classification and visualisation utility of the self-organising map (SOM) method in the context of New South Wales (NSW), Australia, using gridded NCEP/NCAR geopotential height reanalysis for east Australia, together with multi-site meteorological and air quality data for Sydney from the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage Air Quality Monitoring Network. A twice-daily synoptic classification has been derived for east Australia for the period of 1958-2012. The classification has not only reproduced the typical synoptic patterns previously identified in the literature but also provided an opportunity to visualise the subtle, non-linear change in the eastward-migrating synoptic systems influencing NSW (including Sydney). The summarisation of long-term, multi-site air quality/meteorological data from the Sydney basin on the SOM plane has identified a set of typical air pollution/meteorological spatial patterns in the region. Importantly, the examination of these patterns in relation to synoptic weather types has provided important visual insights into how local and synoptic meteorological conditions interact with each other and affect the variability of air quality in tandem. The study illustrates that while synoptic circulation types are influential, the within-type variability in mesoscale flows plays a critical role in determining local ozone levels in Sydney. These results indicate that the SOM can be a useful tool for assessing the impact of weather and climatic conditions on air quality in the regional airshed. This study further promotes the use of the SOM method in environmental research.

Computer mapping of turbidity and circulation patterns in Saginaw Bay, Michigan from LANDSAT data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rogers, R. H. (Principal Investigator); Reed, L. E.; Smith, V. E.

1975-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. LANDSAT was used as a basis for producing geometrically-corrected, color-coded imagery of turbidity and circulation patterns in Saginaw Bay, Michigan (Lake Huron). This imagery shows nine discrete categories of turbidity, as indicated by nine Secchi depths between 0.3 and 3.3 meters. The categorized imagery provided an economical basis for extrapolating water quality parameters from point samples to unsample areas. LANDSAT furnished a synoptic view of water mass boundaries that no amount of ground sampling or monitoring could provide.

An assessment of the Jenkinson and Collison synoptic classification to a continental mid-latitude location

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spellman, Greg

2017-05-01

A weather-type catalogue based on the Jenkinson and Collison method was developed for an area in south-west Russia for the period 1961-2010. Gridded sea level pressure data was obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. The resulting catalogue was analysed for frequency of individual types and groups of weather types to characterise long-term atmospheric circulation in this region. Overall, the most frequent type is anticyclonic (A) (23.3 %) followed by cyclonic (C) (11.9 %); however, there are some key seasonal patterns with westerly circulation being significantly more common in winter than summer. The utility of this synoptic classification is evaluated by modelling daily rainfall amounts. A low level of error is found using a simple model based on the prevailing weather type. Finally, characteristics of the circulation classification are compared to those for the original JC British Isles catalogue and a much more equal distribution of flow types is seen in the former classification.

A coupled synoptic-hydrological model for climate change impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilby, Robert; Greenfield, Brian; Glenny, Cathy

1994-01-01

A coupled atmospheric-hydrological model is presented. Sequences of daily rainfall occurrence for the 20 year period 1971-1990 at sites in the British Isles are related to the Lamb's Weather Types (LWT) by using conditional probabilities. Time series of circulation patterns and hence rainfall were then generated using a Markov representation of matrices of transition probabilities between weather types. The resultant precipitation data were used as input to a semidistributed catchment model to simulate daily flows. The combined model successfully reproduced aspects of the daily weather, precipitation and flow regimes. A range of synoptic scenarios were further investigated with particular reference to low flows in the River Coln, UK. The modelling approach represents a means of translating general circulation model (GCM) climate change predictions at the macro-scale into hydrological concerns at the catchment scale.

The influence of synoptic weather regimes on UK air quality: regional model studies of tropospheric column NO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, R. J.; Savage, N. H.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Ordóñez, C.; Neal, L. S.

2015-07-01

Synoptic meteorology can have a significant influence on UK air quality. Cyclonic (anticyclonic) conditions lead to the dispersion (accumulation) of air pollutants away from (over) source regions. Meteorology also modifies atmospheric chemistry processes such as photolysis and wet deposition. Previous studies have shown a relationship between observed satellite tropospheric column NO2 and synoptic meteorology in different seasons. Here, we test whether the UK Met Office Air Quality in the Unified Model (AQUM) can reproduce these observations and then use the model to determine the controlling factors. We show that AQUM successfully captures the observed relationships, when sampled under the Lamb Weather Types, an objective classification of midday UK circulation patterns. By using a range of idealised NOx-like tracers with different e-folding lifetimes, we show that under different synoptic regimes the NO2 lifetime in AQUM is approximately 6 h in summer and 12 h in winter. The longer lifetime can explain why synoptic spatial column NO2 variations are more significant in winter compared to summer, due to less NO2 photochemical loss. We also show that cyclonic conditions have more seasonality in column NO2 than anticyclonic conditions as they result in more extreme spatial departures from the wintertime seasonal average. Within a season (summer or winter) under different synoptic regimes, a large proportion of the spatial pattern in the UK column NO2 field can be explained by the idealised model tracers, showing that transport is an important factor in governing the variability of UK air quality on seasonal synoptic timescales.

Modelling wildfire activity in Iberia with different Atmospheric Circulation WTs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, P. M.; Trigo, R.; Pereira, M. G.; Rasilla, D.; Gouveia, C.

2012-04-01

This work focuses on the spatial and temporal variability of burnt area (BA) for the entire Iberian Peninsula (IP) and on the construction of statistical models to reproduce the inter-annual variability, based on Weather Types Classification (WTC). A common BA dataset was assembled for the first time for the entire Iberian Peninsula, by merging BA records for the 66 administrative regions of Portugal and Spain. A normalization procedure was then applied to the various size regions before performing a k-means cluster analysis to identify large areas characterized by similar fire regimes. The most compelling results were obtained for 4 clusters (Northwestern, Northern, Southwestern and Eastern) whose spatial patterns and seasonal fire regimes are shown to be related with constraining factors such as topography, vegetation cover and climate conditions. The response of fire burnt surface at monthly time scales to both long-term climatic pre-conditions and short-term synoptic forcing was assessed through correlation and regression analysis using: (i) temperature and precipitation from 2 to 7 months in advance to fire peak season; (ii) synoptic weather patterns derived from 11 distinct classifications derived under the COSTaction-733. Different responses were obtained for each of the considered regions: (i) a relevant link between BA and short-term synoptic forcing (represented by monthly frequencies of WTC) was identified for all clusters; (ii) long-term climatic preconditioning was relevant for all but one cluster (Northern). Taking into account these links, we developed stepwise regression models with the aim of reproducing the observed BA series (i.e. in hindcast mode). These models were based on the best climatic and synoptic circulation predictors identified previously. All models were cross-validated and their performance varies between clusters, though models exclusively based on WTCs tend to better reproduce annual BA time series than those only based on pre-conditioning climatic information. Nevertheless, the best results are attained when both synoptic and climatic predictors are used simultaneously as predictors, in particular for the two western clusters, where correlation coefficient values are higher than 0.7. Finally, we have used WTC composite maps to characterize the typical synoptic configurations that favor high values of BA. These patterns correspond to dry and warm fluxes, associated with anticyclonic regimes, which foster fire ignition (Pereira et al., 2005). Pereira, M.G., Trigo, R.M., DaCamara, C.C., Pereira, J.M.C., Leite, S.M., 2005: "Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal". Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 129, 11-25. COST733, 2011: "COST 733 Wiki - Harmonisation and Applications of Weather Type Classifications for European regions or COST733 spatial domains for Europe". Available at http://geo21.geo.uni-augsburg.de/cost733wiki/Cost733_Wiki_Main [accessed 1 September 2011].

Palaeocirculation across New Zealand during the last glacial maximum at ˜21 ka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorrey, Andrew M.; Vandergoes, Marcus; Almond, Peter; Renwick, James; Stephens, Tom; Bostock, Helen; Mackintosh, Andrew; Newnham, Rewi; Williams, Paul W.; Ackerley, Duncan; Neil, Helen; Fowler, Anthony M.

2012-03-01

What circulation pattern drove Southern Alps glacial advances at ˜21 ka? Late 20th century glacial advances in New Zealand are commonly attributed to a dual precipitation increase and cooler than normal temperatures associated with enhanced westerly flow that occur under synoptic pressure patterns termed 'zonal' regimes (Kidson, 2000). But was the circulation pattern that supported major Southern Alps glacial advances during the global LGM similar to the modern analog? Here, a Regional Climate Regime Classification (RCRC) time slice was used to infer past circulation for New Zealand during the LGM at ˜21 ka. Palaeoclimate information that supported the construction of the ˜21 ka time slice was derived from the NZ-INTIMATE Climate Event Stratigraphy (CES), one new Auckland maar proxy record, and additional low-resolution data sourced from the literature. The terrestrial evidence at ˜21 ka implicates several possibilities for past circulation, depending on how interpretations for some proxies are made. The interpretation considered most tenable for the LGM, based on the agreement between terrestrial evidence, marine reconstructions and palaeoclimate model results is an 'anticyclonic/zonal' circulation regime characterized by increased influences from blocking 'highs' over the South Island during winter and an increase in zonal and trough synoptic types (with southerly to westerly quarter wind flow) during summer. These seasonal circulation traits would have generated lower mean annual temperatures, cooler than normal summer temperatures, and overall lower mean annual precipitation for New Zealand (particularly in the western South Island) at ˜21 ka. The anticyclonic/zonal time slice reconstruction presented in this study has different spatial traits than the late 20th Century and the early Little Ice Age signatures, suggesting more than one type of regional circulation pattern can drive Southern Alps glacial activity. This finding lends support to the hypothesis that temperature over precipitation change is more important as the primary modulator of Southern Alps ice advances. The RCRC approach also demonstrates some subtle advantages of integrating multi-proxy data within a palaeocirculation context for New Zealand, notably because this reconstruction technique enables direct comparisons to coarsely resolved palaeoclimate model outputs that do not have downscaled information.

Modelling Local Sea-Breeze Flow and Associated Dispersion Patterns Over a Coastal Area in North-East Spain: A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soler, M. R.; Arasa, R.; Merino, M.; Olid, M.; Ortega, S.

2011-07-01

The structure and evolution of the sea breeze in the north-west part of the Mediterranean (Catalonia, north-east Spain) is studied both experimentally and, predominantly, using numerical models to increase understanding of sea-breeze structure and three-dimensional (3D) pollution distributions in coastal environments. Sea-breeze components are modelled and analyzed using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Centre for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5). The results show that the growth and structure of the sea-breeze circulation is modulated by the synoptic flow and especially by the complex topography of the area. 3D pollution transport in a sea breeze is modelled by coupling the MM5 to the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, with results indicating that topography and synoptic flow are the main factors modulating horizontal and vertical pollutant transport in sea-breeze episodes. In this way, horizontal dispersion is limited by the complex topography of the area, whilst the sea-breeze flow is intensified by anabatic upslope winds that contribute to vertical pollutant transport. The numerical model results also indicate that the sea-breeze circulation with a weak return flow at upper levels grows due to a synoptic onshore wind component. However, such a sea-breeze circulation is capable of transporting pollutants towards the coast.

A synoptic climatology of derecho producing mesoscale convective systems in the North-Central Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bentley, Mace L.; Mote, Thomas L.; Byrd, Stephen F.

2000-09-01

Synoptic-scale environments favourable for producing derechos, or widespread convectively induced windstorms, in the North-Central Plains are examined with the goal of providing pattern-recognition/diagnosis techniques. Fifteen derechos were identified across the North-Central Plains region during 1986-1995. The synoptic environment at the initiation, mid-point and decay of each derecho was then evaluated using surface, upper-air and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis datasets.Results suggest that the synoptic environment is critical in maintaining derecho producing mesoscale convective systems (DMCSs). The synoptic environment in place downstream of the MCS initiation region determines the movement and potential strength of the system. Circulation around surface low pressure increased the instability gradient and maximized leading edge convergence in the initiation region of nearly all events regardless of DMCS location or movement. Other commonalities in the environments of these events include the presence of a weak thermal boundary, high convective instability and a layer of dry low-to-mid-tropospheric air. Of the two corridors sampled, northeastward moving derechos tend to initiate east of synoptic-scale troughs, while southeastward moving derechos form on the northeast periphery of a synoptic-scale ridge. Other differences between these two DMCS events are also discussed.

Satellite studies of turbidity and circulation patterns in Delaware Bay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klemas, V.; Srna, R.; Treasure, W. M.; Rogers, R.

1973-01-01

Satellite imagery from four successful ERTS-1 passes over Delaware Bay during different portions of the tidal cycle are interpreted with special emphasis on visibility of suspended sediment and its use as a natural tracer for gross circulation patters. The MSS red band (band 5) appears to give the best contrast, although the sediment patterns are represented by only a few neighboring shades of grey. Color density slicing improves the differentiation of turbidity levels. However, color additive enhancements are of limited value since most of the information is in a single color band. The ability of ERTS-1 to present a synoptic view of the surface circulation over the entire bay is shown to be a valuable and unique contribution of ERTS-1 to coastal oceanography.

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crane, Robert G.; Hewitson, B. C.

1991-01-01

A new diagnostic tool is developed for examining relationships between the synoptic scale circulation and regional temperature distributions in GCMs. The 4 x 5 deg GISS GCM is shown to produce accurate simulations of the variance in the synoptic scale sea level pressure distribution over the U.S. An analysis of the observational data set from the National Meteorological Center (NMC) also shows a strong relationship between the synoptic circulation and grid point temperatures. This relationship is demonstrated by deriving transfer functions between a time-series of circulation parameters and temperatures at individual grid points. The circulation parameters are derived using rotated principal components analysis, and the temperature transfer functions are based on multivariate polynomial regression models. The application of these transfer functions to the GCM circulation indicates that there is considerable spatial bias present in the GCM temperature distributions. The transfer functions are also used to indicate the possible changes in U.S. regional temperatures that could result from differences in synoptic scale circulation between a 1XCO2 and a 2xCO2 climate, using a doubled CO2 version of the same GISS GCM.

Plausible Effect of Weather on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation with a Coupled General Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zedong; Wan, Xiuquan

2018-04-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a vital component of the global ocean circulation and the heat engine of the climate system. Through the use of a coupled general circulation model, this study examines the role of synoptic systems on the AMOC and presents evidence that internally generated high-frequency, synoptic-scale weather variability in the atmosphere could play a significant role in maintaining the overall strength and variability of the AMOC, thereby affecting climate variability and change. Results of a novel coupling technique show that the strength and variability of the AMOC are greatly reduced once the synoptic weather variability is suppressed in the coupled model. The strength and variability of the AMOC are closely linked to deep convection events at high latitudes, which could be strongly affected by the weather variability. Our results imply that synoptic weather systems are important in driving the AMOC and its variability. Thus, interactions between atmospheric weather variability and AMOC may be an important feedback mechanism of the global climate system and need to be taken into consideration in future climate change studies.

Simulated life cycles of persistent anticyclonic anomalies over the North Pacific: Role of synoptic-scale eddies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Higgins, R. W.; Schubert, S. D.

1994-01-01

This study examines the role of synoptic-scale eddies during the development of persistent anticyclonic height anomalies over the central North Pacific in a general circulation model under perpetual January conditions. The General Circulation Model (GCM) replicates the basic characteristics of the evolution of the anomaly patterns found in observations. The life cycle is characterized by the rapid establishment of the major anomaly center and considerably longer maintenance and decay phases, which include the development of downstream anomaly centers. The simulation also shows a realistic evolution of synoptic-scale activity beginning with enhanced activity off the east coast of Asia prior to onset, followed by a northward shift of the Pacific storm track, which lasts throughout the maintenance phase. The initial enhancement of synoptic-scale eddy activity is associated with a large-scale cyclonic anomaly that developes over Siberia several days prior to the onset of the main anticyclonic anomaly over the central North Pacific. The observations, however, show considerable interdecadel variability in the details of the composite onset behavior; it is unclear whether this variability is real or whether it reflects differences in the data assimilation systems. The role of the time mean flow and synoptic-scale eddies in the development of the persistent Pacific anomalies is studied within the context of a kinetic energy budget in which the flow is decomposed into the time-mean, low-frequency (timescales longer than 10 days), and synoptic (timescales less than 6 days) components. The budget, which is carried out for the simulation at 500 mb, shows that the initial growth of the persistent anticyclonic anomalies is associated with barotropic conversions of energy, with approximately equal contributions coming from the mean flow and the synoptic-scale eddies. After onset the barotropic conversion from the mean flow dominates, whereas the decay phase is associated with baroclinic processes within the low-frequency flow.

The influence of synoptic weather regimes on UK air quality: regional model studies of tropospheric column NO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, R. J.; Savage, N. H.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Ordóñez, C.; Neal, L. S.

2015-10-01

Synoptic meteorology can have a significant influence on UK air quality. Cyclonic conditions lead to the dispersion of air pollutants away from source regions, while anticyclonic conditions lead to their accumulation over source regions. Meteorology also modifies atmospheric chemistry processes such as photolysis and wet deposition. Previous studies have shown a relationship between observed satellite tropospheric column NO2 and synoptic meteorology in different seasons. Here, we test whether the UK Met Office Air Quality in the Unified Model (AQUM) can reproduce these observations and then use the model to explore the relative importance of various factors. We show that AQUM successfully captures the observed relationships when sampled under the Lamb weather types, an objective classification of midday UK circulation patterns. By using a range of idealized NOx-like tracers with different e-folding lifetimes, we show that under different synoptic regimes the NO2 lifetime in AQUM is approximately 6 h in summer and 12 h in winter. The longer lifetime can explain why synoptic spatial tropospheric column NO2 variations are more significant in winter compared to summer, due to less NO2 photochemical loss. We also show that cyclonic conditions have more seasonality in tropospheric column NO2 than anticyclonic conditions as they result in more extreme spatial departures from the wintertime seasonal average. Within a season (summer or winter) under different synoptic regimes, a large proportion of the spatial pattern in the UK tropospheric column NO2 field can be explained by the idealized model tracers, showing that transport is an important factor in governing the variability of UK air quality on seasonal synoptic timescales.

Feature-oriented regional modeling and simulations in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangopadhyay, Avijit; Robinson, Allan R.; Haley, Patrick J.; Leslie, Wayne G.; Lozano, Carlos J.; Bisagni, James J.; Yu, Zhitao

2003-03-01

The multiscale synoptic circulation system in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank (GOMGB) region is presented using a feature-oriented approach. Prevalent synoptic circulation structures, or 'features', are identified from previous observational studies. These features include the buoyancy-driven Maine Coastal Current, the Georges Bank anticyclonic frontal circulation system, the basin-scale cyclonic gyres (Jordan, Georges and Wilkinson), the deep inflow through the Northeast Channel (NEC), the shallow outflow via the Great South Channel (GSC), and the shelf-slope front (SSF). Their synoptic water-mass ( T- S) structures are characterized and parameterized in a generalized formulation to develop temperature-salinity feature models. A synoptic initialization scheme for feature-oriented regional modeling and simulation (FORMS) of the circulation in the coastal-to-deep region of the GOMGB system is then developed. First, the temperature and salinity feature-model profiles are placed on a regional circulation template and then objectively analyzed with appropriate background climatology in the coastal region. Furthermore, these fields are melded with adjacent deep-ocean regional circulation (Gulf Stream Meander and Ring region) along and across the SSF. These initialization fields are then used for dynamical simulations via the primitive equation model. Simulation results are analyzed to calibrate the multiparameter feature-oriented modeling system. Experimental short-term synoptic simulations are presented for multiple resolutions in different regions with and without atmospheric forcing. The presented 'generic and portable' methodology demonstrates the potential of applying similar FORMS in many other regions of the Global Coastal Ocean.

Meteorological conditions in a thinner Arctic sea ice regime from winter to summer during the Norwegian Young Sea Ice expedition (N-ICE2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Lana; Hudson, Stephen R.; Walden, Von P.; Graham, Robert M.; Granskog, Mats A.

2017-07-01

Atmospheric measurements were made over Arctic sea ice north of Svalbard from winter to early summer (January-June) 2015 during the Norwegian Young Sea Ice (N-ICE2015) expedition. These measurements, which are available publicly, represent a comprehensive meteorological data set covering the seasonal transition in the Arctic Basin over the new, thinner sea ice regime. Winter was characterized by a succession of storms that produced short-lived (less than 48 h) temperature increases of 20 to 30 K at the surface. These storms were driven by the hemispheric scale circulation pattern with a large meridional component of the polar jet stream steering North Atlantic storms into the high Arctic. Nonstorm periods during winter were characterized by strong surface temperature inversions due to strong radiative cooling ("radiatively clear state"). The strength and depth of these inversions were similar to those during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) campaign. In contrast, atmospheric profiles during the "opaquely cloudy state" were different to those from SHEBA due to differences in the synoptic conditions and location within the ice pack. Storm events observed during spring/summer were the result of synoptic systems located in the Barents Sea and the Arctic Basin rather than passing directly over N-ICE2015. These synoptic systems were driven by a large-scale circulation pattern typical of recent years, with an Arctic Dipole pattern developing during June. Surface temperatures became near-constant 0°C on 1 June marking the beginning of summer. Atmospheric profiles during the spring and early summer show persistent lifted temperature and moisture inversions that are indicative of clouds and cloud processes.

Linking storm surge activity and circulation variability along the Spanish coast through a synoptic pattern classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasilla Álvarez, Domingo; Garcia Codrón, Juan Carlos

2010-05-01

The potentially negative consequences resulting from the estimations of global sea level rising along the current century are a matter of serious concern in many coastal areas worldwide. Most of the negative consequences of the sea level variability, such as flooding or erosion, are linked to episodic events of strong atmospheric forcing represented by deep atmospheric disturbances, especially if they combine with extreme astronomical high tides. Moreover, the interaction between the prevailing flows during such events and the actual orientation of the coast line might accelerate or mitigate such impacts. This contribution analyses sea surge variations measured at five tide-gauge stations located around the Iberian Peninsula and their relationships with regional scale circulation patterns with local-scale winds. Its aim is to improve the knowledge of surge related-coastal-risks by analysing the relationship between surges and their atmospheric forcing factors at different spatial scales. The oceanographic data set consists of hourly data from 5 tide gauge stations (Santander, Vigo, Bonanza, Málaga, Valencia and Barcelona) disseminated along the Spanish coastline, provided by Puertos del Estado. To explore the atmospheric mechanisms responsible for the sign and magnitude of sea surges, a regional Eulerian approach (a synoptic typing) were combined with a larger-scale Lagrangian method, based on the analysis of storm-tracks over the Atlantic and local information (synop reports) obtained from the closest meteorological stations to the tide gauges. The synoptic catalogue was obtained following a procedure that combines Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for reduction purposes and clustering (Ward plus K-means) to define the circulation types. Sea level pressure, surface 10m U and V wind components gridded data were obtained from NCEP Reanalysis, while storm tracks and cyclone statistics were extracted from the CDC Map Room Climate Products Storm Track Data (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/st_data.html). The second task was to evaluate the performance of each circulation type on the spatial patterns of a daily fire danger risk index (Canadian Fire Weather Index, FWI). Finally, anomaly maps of several surface and low level climate variables, corresponding to the dates of ignition of the very large forest fires within each synoptic pattern, were calculated to provide insight of the specific conditions associated to those extreme events. A principal component analysis upon 6 hourly residuals highlighted the homogeneous behaviour of the tide gauges and provided a regional quantitative index to identify the largest storm surges. The leading PCA displayed a homogeneous spatial pattern, describing the low frequency variability along the entire coast, in spite of different orientations of the coast, accounting for more than 80% of the total variability. The second PCA displayed opposite phases between the Atlantic and the Mediterranean. Furthermore, the results suggest that surges are a regional rather than local phenomenon, probably related to the same single physical forcing. The comparison between extreme surge events and circulation patterns highlighted that single physical mechanism is represented by extratropical cyclonic disturbances located at the north-western corner of the Iberian Peninsula, responsible for an environment characterized by low pressure readings and westerly-southwesterly winds. That wind pattern acquires an onshore component in the Atlantic coast, but becomes offshore in the Mediterranean. So, the main mechanism responsible for those storm surges is the inverse barometer effect, being the wind dragging secondary. The main physical forcing of the storm surges, the extratropical cyclones, have experience a reduction of this frequency and a marked reduction in their strength since 1950, replaced by stable circulations. Both conditions suggest a long term reduction of the frequency and the magnitude of storm surges.

Atmospheric Drivers of Greenland Surface Melt Revealed by Self-Organizing Maps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mioduszewski, J. R.; Rennermalm, A. K.; Hammann, A.; Tedesco, M.; Noble, E. U.; Stroeve, J. C.; Mote, T. L.

2016-01-01

Recent acceleration in surface melt on the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has occurred concurrently with a rapidly warming Arctic and has been connected to persistent, anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns over Greenland. To identify synoptic setups favoring enhanced GrIS surface melt and their decadal changes, we develop a summer Arctic synoptic climatology by employing self-organizing maps. These are applied to daily 500 hPa geopotential height fields obtained from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis, 1979-2014. Particular circulation regimes are related to meteorological conditions and GrIS surface melt estimated with outputs from the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional. Our results demonstrate that the largest positive melt anomalies occur in concert with positive height anomalies near Greenland associated with wind, temperature, and humidity patterns indicative of strong meridional transport of heat and moisture. We find an increased frequency in a 500 hPa ridge over Greenland coinciding with a 63% increase in GrIS melt between the 1979-1988 and 2005-2014 periods, with 75.0% of surface melt changes attributed to thermodynamics, 17% to dynamics, and 8.0% to a combination. We also confirm that the 2007-2012 time period has the largest dynamic forcing relative of any period but also demonstrate that increased surface energy fluxes, temperature, and moisture separate from dynamic changes contributed more to melt even during this period. This implies that GrIS surface melt is likely to continue to increase in response to an ever warmer future Arctic, regardless of future atmospheric circulation patterns.

Westerly Wind Bursts: a Synoptic-Dynamic Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartten, Leslie Marie

This research examines the synoptic and climatological settings of westerly wind bursts (WWBs) during the 1980s and the dynamical processes active during them. Probabilities of strong westerly and easterly 1000 mb winds over the western equatorial Pacific are presented. Westerlies exhibit a clear annual cycle, appearing in the north in July, moving southeastward as the year progresses, and disappearing by June. Conditional probabilities, dependent on the value of the SOI, show that strong westerlies are more likely and more geographically extensive when the SOI is low, especially from July through January. A newly developed two-dimensional classification scheme qualitatively describes the near-surface synoptic flow of almost 90% of the 131 WWBs identified during the decade. Only 8% of the WWBs are described by the pattern involving twin cyclonic circulations straddling the equator. The trades, tropical cyclones, and the southeast Asian monsoon are all at times linked to WWBs, and the synoptic patterns often contain a significant barotropic component. Breaks in WWB activity are well correlated with a cooler than normal western Pacific warm pool. However, near-equatorial WWBs do not show a good correlation with the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Four near-equatorial WWBs are examined in detail. All are associated with broad cross-equatorial flow; two also have a cyclonic circulation poleward of the westerlies. Anticyclonic relative vorticity equatorward of the burst displaces the zero line of absolute vorticity, eta, into the burst hemisphere. In the three Southern Hemisphere cases, horizontal advection in a region extending from north of New Guinea east-southeast toward the dateline is crucial to the generation and maintenance of the eta pattern. Vorticity stretching associated with convection helps maintain a tight gradient of eta near and poleward of the burst, but also drives the eta = 0 line back towards the equator as the burst ends. In the Northern Hemisphere case, advection is less efficient because the trades slow and turn further away from the equator. This research indicates that Gill's (1980) solution to the linear shallow -water equations forced by near-equatorial heating is not a good model for WWBs.

Modern Climate Analogues of Late-Quaternary Paleoclimates for the Western United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mock, Cary Jeffrey

This study examined spatial variations of modern and late-Quaternary climates for the western United States. Synoptic climatological analyses of the modern record identified the predominate climatic controls that normally produce the principal modes of spatial climatic variability. They also provided a modern standard to assess past climates. Maps of the month-to-month changes in 500 mb heights, sea-level pressure, temperature, and precipitation illustrated how different climatic controls govern the annual cycle of climatic response. The patterns of precipitation ratios, precipitation bar graphs, and the seasonal precipitation maximum provided additional insight into how different climatic controls influence spatial climatic variations. Synoptic-scale patterns from general circulation model (GCM) simulations or from analyses of climatic indices were used as the basis for finding modern climate analogues for 18 ka and 9 ka. Composite anomaly maps of atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and temperature were compared with effective moisture maps compiled from proxy data to infer how the patterns, which were evident from the proxy data, were generated. The analyses of the modern synoptic climatology indicate that smaller-scale climatic controls must be considered along with larger-scale ones in order to explain patterns of spatial climate heterogeneity. Climatic extremes indicate that changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation seasonality are the exception rather than the rule, reflecting the strong influence of smaller-scale controls. Modern climate analogues for both 18 ka and 9 ka clearly depict the dry Northwest/wet Southwest contrast that is suggested by GCM simulations and paleoclimatic evidence. 18 ka analogues also show the importance of smaller-scale climatic controls in explaining spatial climatic variation in the Northwest and northern Great Plains. 9 ka analogues provide climatological explanations for patterns of spatial heterogeneity over several mountainous areas as suggested by paleoclimatic evidence. Modern analogues of past climates supplement modeling approaches by providing information below the resolution of model simulations. Analogues can be used to examine the controls of spatial paleoclimatic variation if sufficient instrumental data and paleoclimatic evidence are available, and if one carefully exercises uniformitarianism when extrapolating modern relationships to the past.

Circulation patterns and wave climate along the coast of the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasilla Álvarez, D.; García Codrán, J. C.

2010-09-01

Evidences of an active erosion (beach retreat, falling cliffs, damaged infrastructures) are observed in many coastal areas around the Iberian Peninsula. Morphogenetic coastal processes result from individual episodes of storminess that can accelerate or mitigate the expected impacts of the global rising trend of average sea levels. Thus, a good understanding of the local forcing processes is required in order to assess the impacts of future sea levels. The spatial and temporal variability of the wave climate along the cost of the Iberian Peninsula and their relationships with regional scale circulation patterns and local-scale winds are the main objectives of this contribution. The oceanographic data set consists of observed hourly data from 7 buoys disseminated along the Spanish coastline, and hindcasted 3-hourly analogous parameters (SIMAR 44 database), provided by Puertos del Estado. Sea level pressure, surface 10m U and V wind components gridded data were obtained from NCEP Reanalysis, while storm tracks and cyclone statistics were extracted from the CDC Map Room Climate Products Storm Track Data (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/st_data.html). The influence of the local conditions was highlighted comparing meteorological data from the buoys and synop reports from coastal stations. To explore the regional atmospheric mechanisms responsible for the wave variability, a regional Eulerian approach (a synoptic typing) were combined with a larger-scale Lagrangian method, based on the analysis of storm-tracks over the area. The synoptic catalogue was obtained following a well-known procedure that combines Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for reduction purposes and clustering (Ward plus K-means) to define the circulation types. As expected, rougher wave climate are observed along the northern and western coast of the Iberian Peninsula, open to the Atlantic storms. The Mediterranean shorelines experiences calmer conditions, although the Gulf of Lions, Catalonian coast and Balearic Islands suffer stormier episodes than Mar de Alborán. Moderate wave power conditions occurred frequently by circulation patterns predominately stable and characterized by weak (mostly sea breezes) winds. Synoptic situations dominated by extra-tropical cyclones produced the highest, but least frequent wave power conditions. Depending on the location of the shorelines, three types of storm events are defined: 1. Long winds fetch and locally strong westerly and northwesterly winds expose the northern coast of Iberia to episodes of intense storminess. Extratropical disturbances tracking between the 50-60°N parallels are the main forcing mechanism of those episodes, many of them result of a cyclogenesis processes along the eastern coast of North America. In some cases, the systems evolves as a secondary cyclon, crossing the area southward of the 50°N parallel; significant wave heights can be as high as the northernmost cyclones, but the wave period is slightly lower. 2.Cyclones tracking along the 40°N parallel bring stormy conditions to the western coast and the Gulf of Cádiz area, associated to southwesterly winds. 3. Finally, the Mediterranean shoreline suffer the worst conditions during easterly and northeasterly wind events, usually dominanted by local disturbances formed along the Western Mediterranean basin. Trends observed on the different circulation patterns can explain the temporal evolution of the wave climate along the Spanish coast, characterized by calmer conditions on the south and an increase of the wave period on the north, without discernible wave height trend. The overall results indicated that this synoptic climatological approach provides a viable framework to establish and examine links between weather systems and wave conditions.

Upscale Impact of Mesoscale Disturbances of Tropical Convection on Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Q.; Majda, A.

2017-12-01

Tropical convection associated with convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) is typically organized by an eastward-moving synoptic-scale convective envelope with numerous embedded westward-moving mesoscale disturbances. It is of central importance to assess upscale impact of mesoscale disturbances on CCKWs as mesoscale disturbances propagate at various tilt angles and speeds. Here a simple multi-scale model is used to capture this multi-scale structure, where mesoscale fluctuations are directly driven by mesoscale heating and synoptic-scale circulation is forced by mean heating and eddy transfer of momentum and temperature. The two-dimensional version of the multi-scale model drives the synoptic-scale circulation, successfully reproduces key features of flow fields with a front-to-rear tilt and compares well with results from a cloud resolving model. In the scenario with an elevated upright mean heating, the tilted vertical structure of synoptic-scale circulation is still induced by the upscale impact of mesoscale disturbances. In a faster propagation scenario, the upscale impact becomes less important, while the synoptic-scale circulation response to mean heating dominates. In the unrealistic scenario with upward/westward tilted mesoscale heating, positive potential temperature anomalies are induced in the leading edge, which will suppress shallow convection in a moist environment. In its three-dimensional version, results show that upscale impact of mesoscale disturbances that propagate at tilt angles (110o 250o) induces negative lower-tropospheric potential temperature anomalies in the leading edge, providing favorable conditions for shallow convection in a moist environment, while the remaining tilt angle cases have opposite effects. Even in the presence of upright mean heating, the front-to-rear tilted synoptic-scale circulation can still be induced by eddy terms at tilt angles (120o 240o). In the case with fast propagating mesoscale heating, positive potential temperature anomalies are induced in the lower troposphere, suppressing convection in a moist environment. This simple model also reproduces convective momentum transport and CCKWs in agreement with results from a recent cloud resolving simulation.

Tropical disturbances in relation to general circulation modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estoque, M. A.

1982-01-01

The initial results of an evaluation of the performance of the Goddard Laboratory of Atmospheric Simulation general circulation model depicting the tropical atmosphere during the summer are presented. Because the results show the existence of tropical wave disturbances throughout the tropics, the characteristics of synoptic disturbances over Africa were studied and a synoptic case study of a selected disturbance in this area was conducted. It is shown that the model is able to reproduce wave type synoptic disturbances in the tropics. The findings show that, in one of the summers simulated, the disturbances are predominantly closed vortices; in another summer, the predominant disturbances are open waves.

Use of circulation types classifications to evaluate AR4 climate models over the Euro-Atlantic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastor, M. A.; Casado, M. J.

2012-10-01

This paper presents an evaluation of the multi-model simulations for the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in terms of their ability to simulate the ERA40 circulation types over the Euro-Atlantic region in winter season. Two classification schemes, k-means and SANDRA, have been considered to test the sensitivity of the evaluation results to the classification procedure. The assessment allows establishing different rankings attending spatial and temporal features of the circulation types. Regarding temporal characteristics, in general, all AR4 models tend to underestimate the frequency of occurrence. The best model simulating spatial characteristics is the UKMO-HadGEM1 whereas CCSM3, UKMO-HadGEM1 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the best simulating the temporal features, for both classification schemes. This result agrees with the AR4 models ranking obtained when having analysed the ability of the same AR4 models to simulate Euro-Atlantic variability modes. This study has proved the utility of applying such a synoptic climatology approach as a diagnostic tool for models' assessment. The ability of the models to properly reproduce the position of ridges and troughs and the frequency of synoptic patterns, will therefore improve our confidence in the response of models to future climate changes.

Evaluation of HCMM satellite data for estuarine tidal circulation patterns and thermal inertia soil moisture measurements. [Delaware Bay, Cooper River, and the Potomac River estuaries; Luverne, Minnesota, soil moisture, and water temperature of Lake Anna, Virginia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiesnet, D. R.; Mcginnis, D. F., Jr. (Principal Investigator); Matson, M.; Pritchard, J. A.

1981-01-01

Digital thermal maps of the Cooper River (SC) and the Potomac River estuaries were prepared from heat capacity mapping radiometer (HCMR) tapes. Tidal phases were correctly interpreted and verified. Synoptic surface circulation patterns were charted by location thermal fronts and water mass boundaries within the estuaries. Thermal anomalies were detected adjacent of a conventional power plant on the Potomac. Under optimum conditions, estuaries as small as the Cooper River can be monitored for generalized thermal/tidal circulation patterns by the HCMM-type IR sensors. The HCMM thermal inertia approach to estimating soil moisture at the Luverne (MN) test site was found to be unsatisfactory as a NESS operational satellite technique because of cloud cover interference. Thermal-IR data show similar structure of the Baltimore and Washington heat islands when compared to NOAA AVHRR thermal-IR data. Thermal anomalies from the warm water discharge water of a nuclear power plant were mapped in Lake Anna, Virginia.

Stratospheric Ozone Distribution and Tropospheric General Circulation: Interconnections in the UTLS Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barodka, S.; Krasovsky, A.; Shalamyansky, A.

2014-12-01

The height of the tropopause, which divided the stratosphere and the troposphere, is a result of two rival categories of processes: the tropospheric vertical convection and the radiative heating of the stratosphere resulting from the ozone cycle. Hence, it is natural that tropospheric and stratospheric phenomena can have effect each other in manifold processes of stratosphere-troposphere interactions. In the present study we focus our attention to the "top-down" side of the interaction: the impact of stratospheric ozone distribution on the features of tropospheric circulation and the associated weather patterns and regional climate conditions. We proceed from analyzes of the observational data performed at the A.I. Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, which suggest a distinct correlation between stratospheric ozone distribution, synoptic formations and air-masses boundaries in the upper troposphere and the temperature field of the lower stratosphere [1]. Furthermore, we analyze local features of atmospheric general circulation and stratospheric ozone distribution from the atmospheric reanalyses and general circulation model data, focusing our attention to instantaneous positions of subtropical and polar stationary atmospheric fronts, which define regional characteristics of the general circulation cells in the troposphere and separate global tropospheric air-masses, correspond to distinct meteorological regimes in the TOC field [2, 3]. We assume that by altering the tropopause height, stratospheric ozone-related processes can have an impact on the location of the stationary atmospheric fronts, thereby exerting influence on circulation processes in troposphere and lower stratosphere. For midlatitudes, the tropopause height controls the position of the polar stationary front, which has a direct impact on the trajectory of motion of active vortices on synoptic tropospheric levels, thereby controlling weather patterns in that region and the regional climate. This mechanism is particularly important for the formation of blocking events. [1] A.M. Shalamyansky - Proceedings of Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, V. 568, pp. 173-194, 2013 (in Russian) [2] R.D. Hudson et al - J. Atmos. Sci., V. 60, pp. 1669-1677, 2003. [3] R.D. Hudson et al - Atmos. Chem. Phys., V. 6, pp. 5183-5191, 2006.

Circulation weather types and their influence on precipitation in Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putniković, Suzana; Tošić, Ivana; Đurđević, Vladimir

2016-10-01

An objective classification scheme of atmospheric circulation, in which daily circulation is determined by the strength, direction, and vorticity of geostrophic flow, has been applied to the atmosphere over Serbia for the time period 1961-2010. The results for the sea level and isobaric level of 500 hPa for winter and summer are presented. The 26 circulation types (eight pure direction, 16 hybrid, cyclonic, and anticyclonic types) are determined and described. Each of the circulation types has a distinct underlying synoptic pattern that produces the expected type and direction of flow over the study area. The relative frequencies of the circulation types, and the relationship between the precipitation and circulation types at three stations on a seasonal time scale are analyzed. The anticyclonic weather type dominates in winter (18.93 %) and summer (18.70 %), followed by the northeasterly type (16.65 %) in summer, and the cyclonic type (12.83 %) in winter. The cyclonic types (C and hybrid) have a higher than average probability of rain at all stations. Conversely, the anticyclonic types are associated with a lower than average probability and intensity of rainfall.

Atmospheric circulation patterns and phenological anomalies of grapevine in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cola, Gabriele; Alilla, Roberta; Dal Monte, Giovanni; Epifani, Chiara; Mariani, Luigi; Parisi, Simone Gabriele

2014-05-01

Grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) is a fundamental crop for Italian agriculture as testified by the first place of Italy in the world producers ranking. This justify the importance of quantitative analyses referred to this crucial crop and aimed to quantify meteorological resources and limitations to development and production. Phenological rhythms of grapevine are strongly affected by surface fields of air temperature which in their turn are affected by synoptic circulation. This evidence highlights the importance of an approach based on dynamic climatology in order to detect and explain phenological anomalies that can have relevant effects on quantity and quality of grapevine production. In this context, this research is aimed to study the existing relation among the 850 hPa circulation patterns over the Euro-Mediterranean area from NOAA Ncep dataset and grapevine phenological fields for Italy over the period 2006-2013, highlighting the main phenological anomalies and analyzing synoptic determinants. This work is based on phenological fields with a standard pixel of 2 km routinely produced from 2006 by the Iphen project (Italian Phenological network) on the base of phenological observations spatialized by means of a specific algorithm based on cumulated thermal resources expressed as Normal Heat Hours (NHH). Anomalies have been evaluated with reference to phenological normal fields defined for the Italian area on the base of phenological observations and Iphen model. Results show that relevant phenological anomalies observed over the reference period are primarily associated with long lasting blocking systems driving cold air masses (Arctic or Polar-Continental) or hot ones (Sub-Tropical) towards the Italian area. Specific cases are presented for some years like 2007 and 2011.

Seasonal characteristics of flood regimes across the Alpine-Carpathian range.

PubMed

Parajka, J; Kohnová, S; Bálint, G; Barbuc, M; Borga, M; Claps, P; Cheval, S; Dumitrescu, A; Gaume, E; Hlavčová, K; Merz, R; Pfaundler, M; Stancalie, G; Szolgay, J; Blöschl, G

2010-11-17

The aim of this paper is to analyse the differences in the long-term regimes of extreme precipitation and floods across the Alpine-Carpathian range using seasonality indices and atmospheric circulation patterns to understand the main flood-producing processes. This is supported by cluster analyses to identify areas of similar flood processes, both in terms of precipitation forcing and catchment processes. The results allow to isolate regions of similar flood generation processes including southerly versus westerly circulation patterns, effects of soil moisture seasonality due to evaporation and effects of soil moisture seasonality due to snow melt. In many regions of the Alpine-Carpathian range, there is a distinct shift in flood generating processes with flood magnitude as evidenced by a shift from summer to autumn floods. It is argued that the synoptic approach proposed here is valuable in both flood analysis and flood estimation.

Seasonal characteristics of flood regimes across the Alpine–Carpathian range

PubMed Central

Parajka, J.; Kohnová, S.; Bálint, G.; Barbuc, M.; Borga, M.; Claps, P.; Cheval, S.; Dumitrescu, A.; Gaume, E.; Hlavčová, K.; Merz, R.; Pfaundler, M.; Stancalie, G.; Szolgay, J.; Blöschl, G.

2010-01-01

Summary The aim of this paper is to analyse the differences in the long-term regimes of extreme precipitation and floods across the Alpine–Carpathian range using seasonality indices and atmospheric circulation patterns to understand the main flood-producing processes. This is supported by cluster analyses to identify areas of similar flood processes, both in terms of precipitation forcing and catchment processes. The results allow to isolate regions of similar flood generation processes including southerly versus westerly circulation patterns, effects of soil moisture seasonality due to evaporation and effects of soil moisture seasonality due to snow melt. In many regions of the Alpine–Carpathian range, there is a distinct shift in flood generating processes with flood magnitude as evidenced by a shift from summer to autumn floods. It is argued that the synoptic approach proposed here is valuable in both flood analysis and flood estimation. PMID:25067854

Characteristics of atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme temperatures over North America in observations and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.

Motivated by a desire to understand the physical mechanisms involved in future anthropogenic changes in extreme temperature events, the key atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme daily temperatures over North America in the current climate are identified. Several novel metrics are used to systematically identify and describe these patterns for the entire continent. The orientation, physical characteristics, and spatial scale of these circulation patterns vary based on latitude, season, and proximity to important geographic features (i.e., mountains, coastlines). The anomaly patterns associated with extreme cold events tend to be similar to, but opposite in sign of, those associated with extreme warm events, especially within the westerlies, and tend to scale with temperature in the same locations. The influence of the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on extreme temperature days and months shows that associations between extreme temperatures and the PNA and NAM are stronger than associations with ENSO. In general, the association with extremes tends to be stronger on monthly than daily time scales. Extreme temperatures are associated with the PNA and NAM in locations typically influenced by these circulation patterns; however many extremes still occur on days when the amplitude and polarity of these patterns do not favor their occurrence. In winter, synoptic-scale, transient weather disturbances are important drivers of extreme temperature days; however these smaller-scale events are often concurrent with amplified PNA or NAM patterns. Associations are weaker in summer when other physical mechanisms affecting the surface energy balance, such as anomalous soil moisture content, are associated with extreme temperatures. Analysis of historical runs from seventeen climate models from the CMIP5 database suggests that most models simulate realistic circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days in most places. Model-simulated patterns tend to resemble observed patterns better in the winter than the summer and at 500 hPa than at the surface. There is substantial variability among the suite of models analyzed and most models simulate circulation patterns more realistically away from influential features such as large bodies of water and complex topography.

Surface ozone concentrations in Europe: Links with the regional-scale atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davies, T. D.; Kelly, P. M.; Low, P. S.; Pierce, C. E.

1992-06-01

Daily surface ozone observations from 1978 (1976 for some analyses) to 1988 for Bottesford (United Kingdom), Cabauw, Kloosterburen (The Netherlands), Hohenpeissenberg, Neuglobsow, Hamburg, and Arkona (Germany) are used to analyze links between surface ozone variations and the atmospheric circulation. A daily Europe-wide synoptic classification highlights marked differences between surface ozone/meteorology relationships in summer and winter. These relationships are characterized by correlations between daily surface ozone concentrations at each station and a local subregional surface pressure gradient (a wind speed index). Although there are geographical variations, which are explicable in terms of regional climatology, there are distinct annual cycles. In summer, the surface ozone/wind speed relationship exhibits the expected negative sign; however, in winter, the relationship is, in the main, strongly positive, especially at those stations which are more influenced by the vigorous westerlies. Spring and autumn exhibit negative, positive, or transitional (between summer and winter) behavior, depending on geographical position. It is suggested that these relationships reflect the importance of vertical exchange from the free troposphere to the surface in the nonsummer months. Composite surface pressure patterns and surface pressure anomaly (from the long-term mean) patterns associated with high surface ozone concentrations on daily and seasonal time scales are consistent with the surface ozone/wind speed relationships. Moreover, they demonstrate that high surface ozone concentrations, in a climatological time frame, can be associated with mean surface pressure patterns which have a synoptic reality and are robust. Such an approach may be useful in interpreting past variations in surface ozone and may help to isolate the effect of human activity. It is also possible that assessments can be made of the effect of projected future changes in the atmospheric circulation. This potential is illustrated by the fact that up to 65% of the interannual variance in 6-month mean surface ozone concentrations can be explained by the subregional wind speed index.

Application of ecological, geological and oceanographic ERTS-1 imagery to Delaware's coastal resources planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klemas, V. (Principal Investigator)

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Communities containing five different coastal vegetation species, developed marshlands, and fresh water impoundments have been identified in ERTS-1 images. Suspended sediment and circulation patterns in imagery from five ERTS-1 passes over Delaware Bay have been enhanced and correlated with predicted current patterns. Conclusions reached are: (1) ERTS-1 is suitable platform for observing suspended sediment patterns and water masses synoptically over large areas. (2) Suspended sediment acts as a natural tracer allowing photointerpreters to deduce gross current circulation patterns from ERTS-1 imagery. (3) Under atmospheric conditions encountered along the East Coast of the United States MSS band 5 seems to give the best representation of sediment load in upper one meter of water column. (4) In the ERTS-1 imagery the sediment patterns are delineated by three to four neighboring shades of grey. (5) Negative transparencies of the ERTS-1 images give better contrast whenever the suspended sediment tones fall within the first few steps of the grey scale. (6) Color density slicing helps delineate the suspended sediment patterns more clearly and differentiate turbidity levels.

Observational and modeling studies of heat, moisture, precipitation, and global-scale circulation patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vincent, Dayton G.; Robertson, Franklin

1993-01-01

The research sponsored by this grant is a continuation and an extension of the work conducted under a previous contract, 'South Pacific Convergence Zone and Global-Scale Circulations'. In the prior work, we conducted a detailed investigation of the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ), and documented many of its significant features and characteristics. We also conducted studies of its interaction with global-scale circulation features through the use of both observational and modeling studies. The latter was accomplished toward the end of the contract when Dr. James Hurrell, then a Ph.D. candidate, successfully ported the NASA GLA general circulation model (GCM) to Purdue University. In our present grant, we have expanded our previous research to include studies of other convectively-driven circulation systems in the tropics besides the SPCZ. Furthermore, we have continued to examine the relationship between these convective systems and global-scale circulation patterns. Our recent research efforts have focused on three objectives: (1) determining the periodicity of large-scale bands of organized convection in the tropics, primarily synoptic to intraseasonal time scales in the Southern Hemisphere; (2) examining the relative importance of tropical versus mid-latitude forcing for Southern Hemisphere summertime subtropical jets, particularly over the Pacific Ocean; and (3) estimating tropical precipitation, especially over oceans, using observational and budget methods. A summary list of our most significant accomplishments in the past year is given.

The role of meteorology on different sized aerosol fractions (PM₁₀, PM₂.₅, PM₂.₅-₁₀).

PubMed

Pateraki, St; Asimakopoulos, D N; Flocas, H A; Maggos, Th; Vasilakos, Ch

2012-03-01

The scope of the present study is to assess the influence of meteorology on different diameter particles (PM(10), PM(2.5), PM(2.5-10)) during a 53 months long experimental campaign at an urban Mediterranean area. Except for the investigation of the wind, temperature and relative humidity role, day by day synoptic conditions were classified over the Attica peninsula in order to explore as well, the role of the synoptic scale atmospheric circulation. The strong dependence of the aerosols character on their various sources, not only explain the different diameter particles behavior and their differentiation with the inorganic pollutants but also highlights the need for an effective emission policy. High PM(10) and PM(2.5-10) concentrations found to be closely related to the southwesterly regime, suggesting long range transport from the 'polluted' south sector while the general prevalence of the secondary particles generation revealed the health hazard. PM(2.5) showed a weaker correlation than the bigger particles with both the circulation patterns and the parameters' fluctuations. Temporal pollutants variations were clearly governed by the emissions patterns while the low wind speed was not necessarily a good indicator of high concentration levels. Finally it was found that only during the open/close anticyclonic days and the southwesterly wind regime the morning levels were continuously higher than those of the night. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exploiting Synoptic-Scale Climate Processes to Develop Nonstationary, Probabilistic Flood Hazard Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, C. M.; Brown, C.; Doss-Gollin, J.

2016-12-01

Climate model projections are commonly used for water resources management and planning under nonstationarity, but they do not reliably reproduce intense short-term precipitation and are instead more skilled at broader spatial scales. To provide a credible estimate of flood trend that reflects climate uncertainty, we present a framework that exploits the connections between synoptic-scale oceanic and atmospheric patterns and local-scale flood-producing meteorological events to develop long-term flood hazard projections. We demonstrate the method for the Iowa River, where high flow episodes have been found to correlate with tropical moisture exports that are associated with a pressure dipole across the eastern continental United States We characterize the relationship between flooding on the Iowa River and this pressure dipole through a nonstationary Pareto-Poisson peaks-over-threshold probability distribution estimated based on the historic record. We then combine the results of a trend analysis of dipole index in the historic record with the results of a trend analysis of the dipole index as simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs) under climate change conditions through a Bayesian framework. The resulting nonstationary posterior distribution of dipole index, combined with the dipole-conditioned peaks-over-threshold flood frequency model, connects local flood hazard to changes in large-scale atmospheric pressure and circulation patterns that are related to flooding in a process-driven framework. The Iowa River example demonstrates that the resulting nonstationary, probabilistic flood hazard projection may be used to inform risk-based flood adaptation decisions.

Synoptic Traveling Weather Systems on Mars: Effects of Radiatively-Active Water Ice Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.; Haberle, Robert; Atsuki Urata, Richard

2016-10-01

Atmospheric aerosols on Mars are critical in determining the nature of its thermal structure, its large-scale circulation, and hence the overall climate of the planet. We conduct multi-annual simulations with the latest version of the NASA Ames Mars global climate model (GCM), gcm2.3+, that includes a modernized radiative-transfer package and complex water-ice cloud microphysics package which permit radiative effects and interactions of suspended atmospheric aerosols (e.g., water ice clouds, water vapor, dust, and mutual interactions) to influence the net diabatic heating. Results indicate that radiatively active water ice clouds profoundly affect the seasonal and annual mean climate. The mean thermal structure and balanced circulation patterns are strongly modified near the surface and aloft. Warming of the subtropical atmosphere at altitude and cooling of the high latitude atmosphere at low levels takes place, which increases the mean pole-to-equator temperature contrast (i.e., "baroclinicity"). With radiatively active water ice clouds (RAC) compared to radiatively inert water ice clouds (nonRAC), significant changes in the intensity of the mean state and forced stationary Rossby modes occur, both of which affect the vigor and intensity of traveling, synoptic period weather systems. Such weather systems not only act as key agents in the transport of heat and momentum beyond the extent of the Hadley circulation, but also the transport of trace species such as water vapor, water ice-clouds, dust and others. The northern hemisphere (NH) forced Rossby waves and resultant wave train are augmented in the RAC case: the modes are more intense and the wave train is shifted equatorward. Significant changes also occur within the subtropics and tropics. The Rossby wave train sets up, combined with the traveling synoptic-period weather systems (i.e., cyclones and anticyclones), the geographic extent of storm zones (or storm tracks) within the NH. A variety of circulation features will be presented which indicate contrasts between the RAC and nonRAC cases, and which highlight key effects radiatively-active clouds have on physical and dynamical processes active in the current climate of Mars.

Synoptic Traveling Weather Systems on Mars: Effects of Radiatively-Active Water Ice Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery; Kahre, Melinda; Haberle, Robert; Urata, Richard

2017-01-01

Atmospheric aerosols on Mars are critical in determining the nature of its thermal structure, its large-scale circulation, and hence the overall climate of the planet. We conduct multi-annual simulations with the latest version of the NASA Ames Mars global climate model (GCM), gcm2.3+, that includes a modernized radiative-transfer package and complex water-ice cloud microphysics package which permit radiative effects and interactions of suspended atmospheric aerosols (e.g., water ice clouds, water vapor, dust, and mutual interactions) to influence the net diabatic heating. Results indicate that radiatively active water ice clouds profoundly affect the seasonal and annual mean climate. The mean thermal structure and balanced circulation patterns are strongly modified near the surface and aloft. Warming of the subtropical atmosphere at altitude and cooling of the high latitude atmosphere at low levels takes place, which increases the mean pole-to-equator temperature contrast (i.e., "baroclinicity"). With radiatively active water ice clouds (RAC) compared to radiatively inert water ice clouds (nonRAC), significant changes in the intensity of the mean state and forced stationary Rossby modes occur, both of which affect the vigor and intensity of traveling, synoptic period weather systems. Such weather systems not only act as key agents in the transport of heat and momentum beyond the extent of the Hadley circulation, but also the transport of trace species such as water vapor, water ice-clouds, dust and others. The northern hemisphere (NH) forced Rossby waves and resultant wave train are augmented in the RAC case: the modes are more intense and the wave train is shifted equatorward. Significant changes also occur within the subtropics and tropics. The Rossby wave train sets up, combined with the traveling synoptic period weather systems (i.e., cyclones and anticyclones), the geographic extent of storm zones (or storm tracks) within the NH. A variety of circulation features will be presented which indicate contrasts between the RAC and nonRAC cases, and which highlight key effects radiatively-active clouds have on physical and dynamical processes active in the current climate of Mars.

Synoptic Traveling Weather Systems on Mars: Effects of Radiatively-Active Water Ice Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery; Kahre, Melinda; Haberle, Robert; Urata, Richard

2017-01-01

Atmospheric aerosols on Mars are critical in determining the nature of its thermal structure, its large-scale circulation, and hence the overall climate of the planet. We conduct multi-annual simulations with the latest version of the NASA Ames Mars global climate model (GCM), gcm2.3+, that includes a modernized radiative-transfer package and complex water-ice cloud microphysics package which permit radiative effects and interactions of suspended atmospheric aerosols (e.g., water ice clouds, water vapor, dust, and mutual interactions) to influence the net diabatic heating. Results indicate that radiatively active water ice clouds profoundly affect the seasonal and annual mean climate. The mean thermal structure and balanced circulation patterns are strongly modified near the surface and aloft. Warming of the subtropical atmosphere at altitude and cooling of the high latitude atmosphere at low levels takes place, which increases the mean pole-to-equator temperature contrast (i.e., "baroclinicity"). With radiatively active water ice clouds (RAC) compared to radiatively inert water ice clouds (nonRAC), significant changes in the intensity of the mean state and forced stationary Rossby modes occur, both of which affect the vigor and intensity of traveling, synoptic period weather systems.Such weather systems not only act as key agents in the transport of heat and momentum beyond the extent of the Hadley circulation, but also the transport of trace species such as water vapor, water ice-clouds, dust and others. The northern hemisphere (NH) forced Rossby waves and resultant wave train are augmented in the RAC case: the modes are more intense and the wave train is shifted equatorward. Significant changes also occur within the subtropics and tropics. The Rossby wave train sets up, combined with the traveling synoptic period weather systems (i.e., cyclones and anticyclones), the geographic extent of storm zones (or storm tracks) within the NH. A variety of circulation features will be presented which indicate contrasts between the RAC and nonRAC cases, and which highlight key effects radiatively-active clouds have on physical and dynamical processes active in the current climate of Mars.

Investigation of dust storms entering Western Iran using remotely sensed data and synoptic analysis.

PubMed

Boloorani, Ali D; Nabavi, Seyed O; Bahrami, Hosain A; Mirzapour, Fardin; Kavosi, Musa; Abasi, Esmail; Azizi, Rasoul

2014-01-01

One of the natural phenomena which have had considerable impacts on various regions of the world, including Iran, is "dust storm". In recent years, this phenomenon has taken on new dimensions in Iran and has changed from a local problem to a national issue. This study is an attempt to investigate the formation of the dust storms crossing the Western Iran. To find the sources of the dust storms entering Iran, first we examine three determined dust paths in the region and their temporal activities, using MODIS satellite images. Then, four regions were identified as dust sources through soil, land cover and wind data. Finally, atmospheric analyses are implemented to find synoptic patterns inducing dust storms. Source 1 has covered the region between the eastern banks of Euphrates and western banks of Tigris. Source 2 is in desert area of western and south-western Iraq. Finally source 3 is bounded in eastern and south-eastern deserts of Saudi Arabia called Rub-Al-Khali desert, or Empty Quarter. Moreover, south-eastern part of Iraq (source 4) was also determined as a secondary source which thickens the dust masses originating from the above mentioned sources. The study of synoptic circulations suggests that the dust storms originating from source 1 are formed due to the intense pressure gradient between the low-pressure system of Zagros and a high-pressure cell formed on Mediterranean Sea. The dust events in sources 2 and 3 are outcomes of the atmospheric circulations dominant in the cold period of the year in mid-latitudes.

Large-scale drivers of local precipitation extremes in convection-permitting climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Steven C.; Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Roberts, Nigel M.; Fowler, Hayley J.; Blenkinsop, Stephen

2016-04-01

The Met Office 1.5-km UKV convective-permitting models (CPM) is used to downscale present-climate and RCP8.5 60-km HadGEM3 GCM simulations. Extreme UK hourly precipitation intensities increase with local near-surface temperatures and humidity; for temperature, the simulated increase rate for the present-climate simulation is about 6.5% K**-1, which is consistent with observations and theoretical expectations. While extreme intensities are higher in the RCP8.5 simulation as higher temperatures are sampled, there is a decline at the highest temperatures due to circulation and relative humidity changes. Extending the analysis to the broader synoptic scale, it is found that circulation patterns, as diagnosed by MSLP or circulation type, play an increased role in the probability of extreme precipitation in the RCP8.5 simulation. Nevertheless for both CPM simulations, vertical instability is the principal driver for extreme precipitation.

Dynamical analysis of extreme precipitation in the US northeast based on large-scale meteorological patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agel, Laurie; Barlow, Mathew; Colby, Frank; Binder, Hanin; Catto, Jennifer L.; Hoell, Andrew; Cohen, Judah

2018-05-01

Previous work has identified six large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) of dynamic tropopause height associated with extreme precipitation over the Northeast US, with extreme precipitation defined as the top 1% of daily station precipitation. Here, we examine the three-dimensional structure of the tropopause LSMPs in terms of circulation and factors relevant to precipitation, including moisture, stability, and synoptic mechanisms associated with lifting. Within each pattern, the link between the different factors and extreme precipitation is further investigated by comparing the relative strength of the factors between days with and without the occurrence of extreme precipitation. The six tropopause LSMPs include two ridge patterns, two eastern US troughs, and two troughs centered over the Ohio Valley, with a strong seasonality associated with each pattern. Extreme precipitation in the ridge patterns is associated with both convective mechanisms (instability combined with moisture transport from the Great Lakes and Western Atlantic) and synoptic forcing related to Great Lakes storm tracks and embedded shortwaves. Extreme precipitation associated with eastern US troughs involves intense southerly moisture transport and strong quasi-geostrophic forcing of vertical velocity. Ohio Valley troughs are associated with warm fronts and intense warm conveyor belts that deliver large amounts of moisture ahead of storms, but little direct quasi-geostrophic forcing. Factors that show the largest difference between days with and without extreme precipitation include integrated moisture transport, low-level moisture convergence, warm conveyor belts, and quasi-geostrophic forcing, with the relative importance varying between patterns.

Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Temperature Extremes as a Basis for Model Evaluation: Methodological Overview and Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, P. C.; Broccoli, A. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lintner, B. R.; Neelin, J. D.

2015-12-01

Anomalous large-scale circulation patterns often play a key role in the occurrence of temperature extremes. For example, large-scale circulation can drive horizontal temperature advection or influence local processes that lead to extreme temperatures, such as by inhibiting moderating sea breezes, promoting downslope adiabatic warming, and affecting the development of cloud cover. Additionally, large-scale circulation can influence the shape of temperature distribution tails, with important implications for the magnitude of future changes in extremes. As a result of the prominent role these patterns play in the occurrence and character of extremes, the way in which temperature extremes change in the future will be highly influenced by if and how these patterns change. It is therefore critical to identify and understand the key patterns associated with extremes at local to regional scales in the current climate and to use this foundation as a target for climate model validation. This presentation provides an overview of recent and ongoing work aimed at developing and applying novel approaches to identifying and describing the large-scale circulation patterns associated with temperature extremes in observations and using this foundation to evaluate state-of-the-art global and regional climate models. Emphasis is given to anomalies in sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height over North America using several methods to identify circulation patterns, including self-organizing maps and composite analysis. Overall, evaluation results suggest that models are able to reproduce observed patterns associated with temperature extremes with reasonable fidelity in many cases. Model skill is often highest when and where synoptic-scale processes are the dominant mechanisms for extremes, and lower where sub-grid scale processes (such as those related to topography) are important. Where model skill in reproducing these patterns is high, it can be inferred that extremes are being simulated for plausible physical reasons, boosting confidence in future projections of temperature extremes. Conversely, where model skill is identified to be lower, caution should be exercised in interpreting future projections.

Identification of extreme precipitation threat across midlatitude regions based on short-wave circulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shih-Yu; Davies, Robert E.; Gillies, Robert R.

2013-10-01

most severe thunderstorms, producing extreme precipitation, occur over subtropical and midlatitude regions. Atmospheric conditions conducive to organized, intense thunderstorms commonly involve the coupling of a low-level jet (LLJ) with a synoptic short wave. The midlatitude synoptic activity is frequently modulated by the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT), in which meridional gradients of the jet stream act as a guide for short Rossby waves. Previous research has linked extreme precipitation events with either the CGT or the LLJ but has not linked the two circulation features together. In this study, a circulation-based index was developed by combining (a) the degree of the CGT and LLJ coupling, (b) the extent to which this CGT-LLJ coupling connects to regional precipitation and (c) the spatial correspondence with the CGT (short wave) trending pattern over the recent 32 years (1979-2010). Four modern-era global reanalyses, in conjunction with four gridded precipitation data sets, were utilized to minimize spurious trends. The results are suggestive of a link between the CGT/LLJ trends and several recent extreme precipitation events, including those leading to the 2008 Midwest flood in U.S., the 2011 tornado outbreaks in southeastern U.S., the 2010 Queensland flood in northeastern Australia, and to the opposite side the 2012 central U.S. drought. Moreover, an analysis of three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models from the historical experiments points to the role of greenhouse gases in forming the CGT trends during the warm season.

Circulation, mixing, and transport in nearshore Lake Erie in the vicinity of Villa Angela Beach and Euclid Creek, Cleveland, Ohio, September 11-12, 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jackson, P. Ryan

2013-01-01

Villa Angela Beach, on the Lake Erie lakeshore near Cleveland, Ohio, is adjacent to the mouth of Euclid Creek, a small, flashy stream draining approximately 23 square miles and susceptible to periodic contamination from combined sewer overflows (CSOs) (97 and 163 CSO events in 2010 and 2011, respectively). Concerns over high concentrations of Escherichia coli (E. coli) in water samples taken along this beach and frequent beach closures led to the collection of synoptic data in the nearshore area in an attempt to gain insights into mixing processes, circulation, and the potential for transport of bacteria and other CSO-related pollutants from various sources in Euclid Creek and along the lakefront. An integrated synoptic survey was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey on September 11–12, 2012, during low-flow conditions on Euclid Creek, which followed rain-induced high flows in the creek on September 8–9, 2012. Data-collection methods included deployment of an autonomous underwater vehicle and use of a manned boat equipped with an acoustic Doppler current profiler. Spatial distributions of water-quality measures and nearshore currents indicated that the mixing zone encompassing the mouth of Euclid Creek and Villa Angela Beach is dynamic and highly variable in extent, but can exhibit a large zone of recirculation that can, at times, be decoupled from local wind forcing. Observed circulation patterns during September 2012 indicated that pollutants from CSOs in Euclid Creek and water discharged from three shoreline CSO points within 2,000 feet of the beach could be trapped along Villa Angela Beach by interaction of nearshore currents and shoreline structures. In spite of observed coastal downwelling, denser water from Euclid Creek is shown to mix to the surface via offshore turbulent structures that span the full depth of flow. While the southwesterly longshore currents driving the recirculation pattern along the beach front were observed during the 2011–12 synoptic surveys, longshore currents with a southwesterly component capable of establishing the recirculation only occurred about 30 percent of the time from June 7 to October 6, 2012, based on continuous velocity data collected near Villa Angela Beach.

The use of normalized climatological anomalies to rank synoptic-scale events and their relation to Weather Types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, A. M.; Lorenzo, M. N.; Gimeno, L.; Nieto, R.; Añel, J. A.

2009-09-01

Several methods have been developed to rank meteorological events in terms of severity, social impact or economic impacts. These classifications are not always objective since they depend of several factors, for instance, the observation network is biased towards the densely populated urban areas against rural or oceanic areas. It is also very important to note that not all rare synoptic-scale meteorological events attract significant media attention. In this work we use a comprehensive method of classifying synoptic-scale events adapted from Hart and Grumm, 2001, to the European region (30N-60N, 30W-15E). The main motivation behind this method is that the more unusual the event (a cold outbreak, a heat wave, or a flood), for a given region, the higher ranked it must be. To do so, we use four basic meteorological variables (Height, Temperature, Wind and Specific Humidity) from NCEP reanalysis dataset over the range of 1000hPa to 200hPa at a daily basis from 1948 to 2004. The climatology used embraces the 1961-1990 period. For each variable, the analysis of raking climatological anomalies was computed taking into account the daily normalized departure from climatology at different levels. For each day (from 1948 to 2004) we have four anomaly measures, one for each variable, and another, a combined where the anomaly (total anomaly) is the average of the anomaly of the four variables. Results will be analyzed on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis. Seasonal trends and variability will also be shown. In addition, and given the extent of the database, the expected return periods associated with the anomalies are revealed. Moreover, we also use an automated version of the Lamb weather type (WT) classification scheme (Jones et al, 1993) adapted for the Galicia area (Northwestern corner of the Iberian Peninsula) by Lorenzo et al (2008) in order to compute the daily local circulation regimes in this area. By combining the corresponding daily WT with the five anomaly measures we can evaluate if there is any preferable WT responsible for high or low values of anomalies. Hart, R.E and R.H. Grumm (2001) Using normalized climatological anomalies to rank synoptic-scale events objectivily. Monthly Weather Review, 129, 2426-2442. Jones, P. D., M. Hulme, K. R. Briffa (1993) A comparison of Lamb circulation types with anobjective classification scheme. International Journal of Climatology, 13: 655- 663. Lorenzo M.N., J.J. Taboada and L.Gimeno (2008). Links between circulation weather types and teleconnection patterns and their influence on precipitation patterns in Galicia (NW Spain). International Journal of Climatology 28(11): 1493:1505 DOI: 10.1002/joc.1646.

A New Multiscale Model for the Madden-Julian Oscillation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biello, Joseph A.; Majda, Andrew J.

2005-06-01

A multiscale model of the MJO is developed here that accounts, in a simplified fashion, for both the upscale transfer from synoptic to planetary scales of momentum and temperature from wave trains of thermally driven equatorial synoptic-scale circulations in a moving convective envelope as well as direct mean heating on planetary scales. This model involves idealized thermally driven congestus synoptic-scale fluctuations in the eastern part of the moving wave envelope and convective superclusters in the western part of the envelope. The model self-consistently reproduces qualitatively many of the detailed structural features of the planetary circulation in the observations of the MJO, including the vertical structure in both the westerly onset region and the strong westerly wind burst region, as well as the horizontal quadrupole planetary vortex structure. The westerly midlevel inflow in the strong westerly region and the quadrupole vortex are largely produced in the model by the upscale transport of momentum to the planetary scales, while the midlevel easterly jet in the westerly onset region is substantially strengthened by this process. The role of wave trains of tilted organized synoptic-scale circulations is crucial for this fidelity with observations. The appeal of the multiscale models developed below is their firm mathematical underpinnings, simplicity, and analytic tractability while remaining self-consistent with many of the features of the observational record.

On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdon-Kidd, D.; Kiem, A. S.

2008-10-01

In this paper regional (synoptic) and large-scale climate drivers of rainfall are investigated for Victoria, Australia. A non-linear classification methodology known as self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify 20 key regional synoptic patterns, which are shown to capture a range of significant synoptic features known to influence the climate of the region. Rainfall distributions are assigned to each of the 20 patterns for nine rainfall stations located across Victoria, resulting in a clear distinction between wet and dry synoptic types at each station. The influence of large-scale climate modes on the frequency and timing of the regional synoptic patterns is also investigated. This analysis revealed that phase changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and/or Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are associated with a shift in the relative frequency of wet and dry synoptic types. Importantly, these results highlight the potential to utilise the link between the regional synoptic patterns derived in this study and large-scale climate modes to improve rainfall forecasting for Victoria, both in the short- (i.e. seasonal) and long-term (i.e. decadal/multi-decadal scale). In addition, the regional and large-scale climate drivers identified in this study provide a benchmark by which the performance of Global Climate Models (GCMs) may be assessed.

Analysis of the synoptic winter mortality climatology in five regions of England: Searching for evidence of weather signals.

PubMed

Paschalidou, A K; Kassomenos, P A; McGregor, G R

2017-11-15

Although heat-related mortality has received considerable research attention, the impact of cold weather on public health is less well-developed, probably due to the fact that physiological responses to cold weather can vary substantially among individuals, age groups, diseases etc., depending on a number of behavioral and physiological factors. In the current work we use the classification techniques provided by the COST-733 software to link synoptic circulation patterns with excess cold-related mortality in 5 regions of England. We conclude that, regardless of the classification scheme used, the most hazardous conditions for public health in England are associated with the prevalence of the Easterly type of weather, favoring advection of cold air from continental Europe. It is noteworthy that there has been observed little-to-no regional variation with regards to the classification results among the 5 regions, suggestive of a spatially homogenous response of mortality to the atmospheric patterns identified. In general, the 10 different groupings of days used reveal that excess winter mortality is linked with the lowest daily minimum/maximum temperatures in the area. However it is not uncommon to observe high mortality rates during days with higher, in relative terms, temperatures, when rapidly changing weather results in an increase of mortality. Such a finding confirms the complexity of cold-related mortality and highlights the importance of synoptic climatology in understanding of the phenomenon. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdon-Kidd, D. C.; Kiem, A. S.

2009-04-01

In this paper regional (synoptic) and large-scale climate drivers of rainfall are investigated for Victoria, Australia. A non-linear classification methodology known as self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify 20 key regional synoptic patterns, which are shown to capture a range of significant synoptic features known to influence the climate of the region. Rainfall distributions are assigned to each of the 20 patterns for nine rainfall stations located across Victoria, resulting in a clear distinction between wet and dry synoptic types at each station. The influence of large-scale climate modes on the frequency and timing of the regional synoptic patterns is also investigated. This analysis revealed that phase changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and/or the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are associated with a shift in the relative frequency of wet and dry synoptic types on an annual to inter-annual timescale. In addition, the relative frequency of synoptic types is shown to vary on a multi-decadal timescale, associated with changes in the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Importantly, these results highlight the potential to utilise the link between the regional synoptic patterns derived in this study and large-scale climate modes to improve rainfall forecasting for Victoria, both in the short- (i.e. seasonal) and long-term (i.e. decadal/multi-decadal scale). In addition, the regional and large-scale climate drivers identified in this study provide a benchmark by which the performance of Global Climate Models (GCMs) may be assessed.

Characterization of synoptic patterns causing dust outbreaks that affect the Arabian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermida, L.; Merino, A.; Sánchez, J. L.; Fernández-González, S.; García-Ortega, E.; López, L.

2018-01-01

Dust storms pose serious weather hazards in arid and semiarid regions of the earth. Understanding the main synoptic conditions that give rise to dust outbreaks is important for issuing forecasts and warnings to the public in cases of severe storms. The aim of the present study is to determine synoptic patterns that are associated with or even favor dust outbreaks over the Arabian Peninsula. In this respect, red-green-blue dust composite images from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite are used to detect dust outbreaks affecting the Arabian Peninsula, with possible influences in southwestern Asia and northeastern Africa, between 2005 and 2013. The Meteosat imagery yielded a sample of 95 dust storm days. Meteorological fields from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data of wind fields at 10 m and 250 hPa, mean sea level pressure, and geopotential heights at 850 and 500 hPa were obtained for the dust storm days. Using principal component analysis in T-mode and non-hierarchical k-means clustering, we obtained four major atmospheric circulation patterns associated with dust outbreaks during the study days. Cluster 4 had the largest number of days with dust events, which were constrained to summer, and cluster 3 had the fewest. In clusters 1, 2 and 3, the jet stream favored the entry of a low-pressure area or trough that varied in location between the three clusters. Their most northerly location was found in cluster 4, along with an extensive low-pressure area supporting strong winds over the Arabian Peninsula. The spatial distribution of aerosol optical depth for each cluster obtained was characterized using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data. Then, using METAR stations, clusters were also characterized in terms of frequency and visibility.

A Precipitation Climatology of the Snowy Mountains, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theobald, Alison; McGowan, Hamish; Speirs, Johanna

2014-05-01

The precipitation that falls in the Snowy Mountains region of southeastern Australia provides critical water resources for hydroelectric power generation. Water storages in this region are also a major source of agricultural irrigation, environmental flows, and offer a degree of flood protection for some of the major river systems in Australia. Despite this importance, there remains a knowledge gap regarding the long-term, historic variability of the synoptic weather systems that deliver precipitation to the region. This research aims to increase the understanding of long-term variations in precipitation-bearing weather systems resulting in runoff into the Snowy Mountains catchments and reservoirs, and the way in which these are influenced by large-scale climate drivers. Here we present initial results on the development of a climatology of precipitation-bearing synoptic weather systems (synoptic typology), spanning a period of over 100 years. The synoptic typology is developed from the numerical weather model re-analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), in conjunction with regional precipitation and temperature data from a network of private gauges. Given the importance of surface, mid- and upper-air patterns on seasonal precipitation, the synoptic typing will be based on a range of meteorological variables throughout the depth of the troposphere, highlighting the importance of different atmospheric levels on the development and steering of synoptic precipitation bearing systems. The temporal and spatial variability of these synoptic systems, their response to teleconnection forcings and their contribution to inflow generation in the headwater catchments of the Snowy Mountains will be investigated. The resulting climatology will provide new understanding of the drivers of regional-scale precipitation variability at inter- and intra-annual timescales. It will enable greater understanding of how variability in synoptic scale atmospheric circulation affects the hydroclimate of alpine environments in southeast Australia - allowing recently observed precipitation declines to be placed in the context of a long-term record spanning at least 100 years. This information will provide further insight into the impacts of predicted anthropogenic climate change and will ultimately lead to more informed water resource management in the Snowy Mountains.

Processes and mechanisms of persistent extreme precipitation events in East China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Panmao; Chen, Yang

2014-11-01

This study mainly presents recent progresses on persistent extreme precipitation events (PEPEs) in East China. A definition focusing both persistence and extremity of daily precipitation is firstly proposed. An identification method for quasi-stationary regional PEPEs is then designed. By utilizing the identified PEPEs in East China, typical circulation configurations from the lower to the upper troposphere are confirmed, followed by investigations of synoptic precursors for key components with lead time of 1-2 weeks. Two characteristic circulation patterns responsible for PEPEs in East China are identified: a double blocking high type and a single blocking high type. They may account for occurrence of nearly 80% PEPEs during last 60 years. For double blocking high type, about two weeks prior to PEPEs, two blockings developed and progressed towards the Ural Mountains and the Sea of Okhotsk, respectively. A northwestward progressive anomalous anticyclone conveying abundant moisture and eastward-extended South Asia High favoring divergence can be detected about one week in advance. A dominant summertime teleconnection over East Asia, East Asia/ Pacific (EAP) pattern, is deemed as another typical regime inducing PEPEs in the East China. Key elements of the EAP pattern initiated westward movement since one week prior to PEPEs. Eastward energy dispersion and poleward energy dispersion contributed to early development and subsequent maintenance of this teleconnection pattern, respectively. These typical circulation patterns and significant precursors may offer local forecasters some useful clues in identifying and predicting such high-impact precipitation events about 1-2 weeks in advance.

Evaluating the fidelity of CMIP5 models in producing large-scale meteorological patterns over the Northwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lintner, B. R.; Loikith, P. C.; Pike, M.; Aragon, C.

2017-12-01

Climate change information is increasingly required at impact-relevant scales. However, most state-of-the-art climate models are not of sufficiently high spatial resolution to resolve features explicitly at such scales. This challenge is particularly acute in regions of complex topography, such as the Pacific Northwest of the United States. To address this scale mismatch problem, we consider large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs), which can be resolved by climate models and associated with the occurrence of local scale climate and climate extremes. In prior work, using self-organizing maps (SOMs), we computed LSMPs over the northwestern United States (NWUS) from daily reanalysis circulation fields and further related these to the occurrence of observed extreme temperatures and precipitation: SOMs were used to group LSMPs into 12 nodes or clusters spanning the continuum of synoptic variability over the regions. Here this observational foundation is utilized as an evaluation target for a suite of global climate models from the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Evaluation is performed in two primary ways. First, daily model circulation fields are assigned to one of the 12 reanalysis nodes based on minimization of the mean square error. From this, a bulk model skill score is computed measuring the similarity between the model and reanalysis nodes. Next, SOMs are applied directly to the model output and compared to the nodes obtained from reanalysis. Results reveal that many of the models have LSMPs analogous to the reanalysis, suggesting that the models reasonably capture observed daily synoptic states.

The Energy Cascade Associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castanheira, J. M.; Marques, C. A. F.

2017-12-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation or Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO), in a more hemispheric expression, is the dominant mode of variability of the extratropical atmospheric circulation. In the literature which analyses the association of low frequency variability of the NAO/AO with other climate variables, it is very common to find the idea of circulation and climate impacts of the NAO/AO. It is usually suggested that the NAO influences the position of North Atlantic storm tracks and the related transport of heat and moisture. However, in spite of the long time since the NAO variability mode was uncovered (Walker and Bliss, 1932), its underlying dynamical mechanisms are not well understood yet. In fact, it is not yet consensual that the NAO influences the position of the storm tracks, being possible that the relationship is in the opposite way with the storm track activity influencing de NAO. In this communication we will present an analysis of anomalies of the energy cascade associated with the NAO. A detailed version of the Lorenz energy cycle, which decomposes the energy flows into baroclinic and barotropic terms and into zonal mean and eddy components, was applied to the 6-hourly ERA-I reanalysis for the period of 1979 to 2016. The obtained results show that the positive NAO phase is preceded by an significant increase of synoptic baroclinic eddy activity. The eddy available potential energy is converted into kinetic energy and transferred to barotropic synoptic eddies. Then, the kinetic energy is transferred upscale into the barotropic planetary waves, which reproduce the NAO pattern. Therefore, we conclude that the synoptic baroclinic eddy activity forces the NAO variability. No clear signal was found for a modulating role of the NAO in the baroclinic eddy activity.

Classification of weather patterns to study the influence of meteorological characteristics on PM2.5 concentrations in Yunlin County, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Chia-Hua; Cheng, Fang-Yi

2016-11-01

Yunlin County is located in the central part of western Taiwan with major emissions from the Mailiao industrial park, the Taichung Power Plants and heavy traffic. In order to understand the influence of meteorological conditions on PM2.5 concentrations in Yunlin County, we applied a two-stage cluster analysis method using the daily averaged surface winds from four air quality monitoring stations in Yunlin County to classify the weather pattern. The study period includes 1095 days from Jan 2013 to December 2015. The classification results show that the low PM2.5 concentration occurs when the synoptic weather in Taiwan is affected by the strong southwesterly monsoonal flow. The high PM2.5 concentration occurs when Taiwan is under the influence of weak synoptic weather conditions and continental high-pressure peripheral circulation. A high PM2.5 event was studied and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model was performed. The result indicated that due to being blocked by the Central Mountain Range, Yunlin County, which is situated on the leeside of the mountains, exhibits low wind speed and strong subsidence behavior that favors PM2.5 accumulation.

Deep convection over Northern Italy: synoptic and thermodynamic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, S.; Mezzasalma, P.; Levizzani, V.; Alberoni, P. P.; Nanni, S.

Synoptic and thermodynamic characteristics of severe storm outbreaks, including supercells, over northern Italy's Po valley are examined over a 3-year period. Storms are divided into three main categories according to the most relevant associated ground phenomenon: tornado-like, hailfall and heavy rain. For each category, the most common synoptic characteristics are investigated. Sounding data are used to calculate stability indices that help define the storm's environment. Results indicate that the interaction between the synoptic flow and the steep Alpine orography is the key factor responsible for building up the mesoscale circulation that leads to different kinds of severe storms. Some of the stability indices can be regarded as predictors of intense convection.

Tropical circulation and precipitation response to ozone depletion and recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brönnimann, Stefan; Jacques-Coper, Martín; Rozanov, Eugene; Fischer, Andreas M.; Morgenstern, Olaf; Zeng, Guang; Akiyoshi, Hideharu; Yamashita, Yousuke

2017-06-01

Among the few well established changes in atmospheric circulation in recent decades are those caused by stratospheric ozone depletion. They include a strengthening and poleward contraction of the westerly atmospheric circulation over the Southern extratropics, i.e. a strengthening Southern Annular Mode (SAM), in austral spring and summer. Associated effects on extratropical temperature and precipitation and more recently subtropical precipitation have been documented and are understood in a zonal mean framework. We present zonally asymmetric effects of ozone depletion that reach into the tropics and affect atmospheric circulation and precipitation, including the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), the most important rainband of the Southern Hemisphere. Using observation-based analyses and model simulations we show that over the 1961-1996 period, ozone depletion led to increased precipitation at the northern flank of the SPCZ and to decreased precipitation to the south. The effects originate from a flow pattern over the southwestern Pacific that extends equatorward and alters the propagation of synoptic waves and thus the position of the SPCZ. Model simulations suggest that anticipated stratospheric ozone recovery over the next decades will reverse these effects.

Interannual Variations in Synoptic-Scale Disturbances over the Western North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Xingyan; Lu, Riyu; Chen, Guanghua; Wu, Liang

2018-05-01

The present study investigates the interannual variation of June-November synoptic disturbance activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) and its relationship with large-scale circulation for the period 1958-2014. Two leading modes of eddy kinetic energy for the disturbance variability over the WNP are obtained by EOF analysis, characterized by anomalous eddy kinetic energy over the subtropical WNP and around the Philippines, respectively. These modes explain a large portion of the interannual variance of synoptic disturbance activity over the WNP. Both are associated with lower-level cyclonic anomalies, but with different locations: over the subtropical WNP for the first mode and over the South China Sea for the second mode. Considering the impact of ENSO on synoptic disturbance activity over the WNP, we repeat the analyses after removing the effect of ENSO, which is simply defined as the components linearly regressed onto the Niño3.4 index, and find similar results, suggesting that the leading modes and their relationships with large-scale circulation exist without SST effects. Further analyses suggest that the meridional shear of zonal winds caused by cyclonic anomalies is crucial for maintaining the leading modes through barotropic conversion.

Rainfall Patterns Analysis over Ampangan Muda, Kedah from 2007 - 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chooi Tan, Kok

2018-04-01

The scientific knowledge about climate change and climate variability over Malaysia pertaining to the extreme water-related disaster such as drought and flood. A deficit or increment in precipitation occurred over the past century becomes a useful tool to understand the climate change in Malaysia. The purpose of this work is to examine the rainfall patterns over Ampangan Muda, Kedah. Daily rainfall data is acquired from Malaysian Meteorological Department to analyse the temporal and trends of the monthly and annual rainfall over the study area from 2007 to 2016. The obtained results show that the temporal and patterns of the rainfall over Ampangan Muda, Kedah is largely affected by the regional phenomena such as monsoon, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. In addition, backward trajectories analysis is also used to identify the patterns for long-range of synoptic circulation over the region.

Identifying Patterns in Extreme Precipitation Risk and the Related Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation can harm human life and assets through flooding, hail, landslides, or debris flows. Flood risk assessments typically concentrate on river or mountain torrent channels, using water depth, flow velocity, and/or sediment deposition to quantify the risk. In addition, extreme events with high recurrence intervals are often the main focus. However, damages from short-term and localized convective showers often occur away from watercourses. Also, damages from more frequent small scale extremes, although usually less disastrous, can accumulate to considerable financial burdens. Extreme convective precipitation is expected to intensify in a warmer climate, and vulnerability patterns might change in tandem with changes in the character of precipitation and flood types. This has consequences for adaptation planners who want to establish effective protection measures and reduce the cost from natural hazards. Here we merge hydrological and exposure data to identify patterns of risk under varying synoptic conditions. Exposure is calculated from a database of 76k damage claims reported to the national disaster fund in 480 municipalities in south eastern Austria from 1990-2015. Hydrological data comprise sub-daily precipitation (59 gauges) and streamflow (62 gauges) observations. We use synoptic circulation types to identify typical precipitation patterns. They indicate the character of precipitation even if a gauge is not in close proximity, facilitating potential future research with regional climate model data. Results show that more claims are reported under synoptic conditions favouring convective precipitation (on average 1.5-3 times more than on other days). For agrarian municipalities, convective precipitation damages are among the costliest after long low-intensity precipitation events. In contrast, Alpine communities are particularly vulnerable to convective high-intensity rainfall. In addition to possible observational error, uncertainty is present in damage reporting errors, claims from private insurers and adaptation effects after damaging events. As for the latter, preliminary results indicate that investments regularly occur after big events, which may skew subsequent damage claims. Their effectiveness, though, needs to be analyzed in future research.

Satellite-derived attributes of cloud vortex systems and their application to climate studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carleton, Andrew M.

1987-01-01

Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) visible and infrared mosaics are analyzed in conjunction with synoptic meteorological observations of sea level pressure (SLP) and upper-air height to derive composite patterns of cyclonic cloud vortices for the Northern Hemisphere. The patterns reveal variations in the structure and implied dynamics of cyclonic systems at different stages of development that include: (1) increasing vertical symmetry of the lower-level and upper-air circulations and (2) decreasing lower-tropospheric thicknesses and temperature advection, associated with increasing age of the vortex. Cloud vortices are more intense in winter than in summer and typically reach maximum intensity in the short-lived prespiral signature stage. There are major structural differences among frontal wave, polar air, and 'instant occlusion' cyclogenesis types. Cyclones in the dissipation stage may reintensify (deepen), as denoted by the appearance in the imagery of an asymmetric cloud band or a tightened spiral vortex. The satellite-derived statistics on cloud vortex intensity, which are seasonal- and latitude- as well as type-dependent, are applied to a preliminary examination of the synoptic manifestations of seasonal climate variability. An apparently close relationship is found, for two winter and spring seasons, between Northern Hemisphere cyclonic activity and variations in cryosphere variables, particularly the extent of Arctic sea ice. The results may indicate that increased snow and ice extent accompany a southward displacement of cyclonic activity and/or a predominance of deeper systems. However, there is also a strong regional dependence to the ice-synoptics feedback. This study demonstrates the utility of high resolution meteorological satellite imagery for studies of climate variations (climate dynamics).

Extreme Temperature Regimes during the Cool Season and their Associated Large-Scale Circulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Z.

2015-12-01

In the cool season (November-March), extreme temperature events (ETEs) always hit the continental United States (US) and provide significant societal impacts. According to the anomalous amplitudes of the surface air temperature (SAT), there are two typical types of ETEs, e.g. cold waves (CWs) and warm waves (WWs). This study used cluster analysis to categorize both CWs and WWs into four distinct regimes respectively and investigated their associated large-scale circulations on intra-seasonal time scale. Most of the CW regimes have large areal impact over the continental US. However, the distribution of cold SAT anomalies varies apparently in four regimes. In the sea level, the four CW regimes are characterized by anomalous high pressure over North America (near and to west of cold anomaly) with different extension and orientation. As a result, anomalous northerlies along east flank of anomalous high pressure convey cold air into the continental US. To the middle troposphere, the leading two groups feature large-scale and zonally-elongated circulation anomaly pattern, while the other two regimes exhibit synoptic wavetrain pattern with meridionally elongated features. As for the WW regimes, there are some patterns symmetry and anti-symmetry with respect to CW regimes. The WW regimes are characterized by anomalous low pressure and southerlies wind over North America. The first and fourth groups are affected by remote forcing emanating from North Pacific, while the others appear mainly locally forced.

The role of atmospheric circulation patterns on short-term sea-level fluctuations along the eastern seaboard of the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, S. C.; Lee, C. C.; Pirhalla, D.; Ransi, V.

2017-12-01

Sea-level fluctuations over time are a product of short-term weather events, as well as long-term secular trends in sea-level rise. With sea-levl rise, these fluctuations increasingly have substantial impacts upon coastal ecosystems and impact society through coastal flooding events. In this research, we assess the impact of short-term events, combined with sea-level rise, through synoptic climatological analysis, exploring whether circulation pattern identification can be used to enhance probabilistic forecasts of flood likelihood. Self-organizing maps (SOMs) were created for two discrete atmospheric variables: 700-hPa geopotential height (700z) and sea-level pressure (SLP). For each variable, a SOM array of patterns was created based on data spanning 25°-50°N and 60°-90°W for the period 1979-2014. Sea-level values were derived from tidal gauges between Cape May, New Jersey and Charleston, South Carolina, along the mid-Atlantic coast of the US. Both anomalous sea-level values, as well as nuisance flood occurrence (defined using the local gauge threshold), were assessed. Results show the impacts of both the inverted barometer effect as well as surface wind forcing on sea levels. With SLP, higher sea levels are associated with either patterns that were indicative of on-shore flow or cyclones. At 700z, ridges situated along the east coast are associated with higher sea levels. As the SOM matrix arranges atmospheric patterns in a continuum, the nodes of each SOM show a clear spatial pattern in terms of anomalous sea level, including some significant sea-level anomalies associated with relatively ambiguous pressure patterns. Further, multi-day transitions are also analyzed, showing rapidly deepening cyclones, or persistent onshore flow, can be associated with the greatest likelihood of nuisance floods. Results are weaker with 700z than SLP; however, in some cases, it is clear that the mid-tropospheric circulation can modulate the connection between sea-level anomalies and surface circulation.

Links between large-scale circulation patterns and streamflow in Central Europe: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steirou, Eva; Gerlitz, Lars; Apel, Heiko; Merz, Bruno

2017-06-01

We disentangle the relationships between streamflow and large-scale atmospheric circulation in Central Europe (CE), an area affected by climatic influences from different origins (Atlantic, Mediterranean and Continental) and characterized by diverse topography and flow regimes. Our literature review examines in detail the links between mean, high and low flows in CE and large-scale circulation patterns, with focus on two closely related phenomena, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Western-zonal circulation (WC). For both patterns, significant relations, consistent between different studies, are found for large parts of CE. The strongest links are found for the winter season, forming a dipole-like pattern with positive relationships with streamflow north of the Alps and the Carpathians for both indices and negative relationships for the NAO in the south. An influence of winter NAO is also detected in the amplitude and timing of snowmelt flows later in the year. Discharge in CE has further been linked to other large-scale climatic modes such as the Scandinavia pattern (SCA), the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern (EA/WR), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and synoptic weather patterns such as the Vb weather regime. Different mechanisms suggested in the literature to modulate links between streamflow and the NAO are combined with topographical characteristics of the target area in order to explain the divergent NAO/WC influence on streamflow in different parts of CE. In particular, a precipitation mechanism seems to regulate winter flows in North-Western Germany, an area with short duration of snow cover and with rainfall-generated floods. The precipitation mechanism is also likely in Southern CE, where correlations between the NAO and temperature are low. Finally, in the rest of the study area (Northern CE, Alpine region), a joint precipitation-snow mechanism influences floods not only in winter, but also in the spring/snowmelt period, providing some possibilities for flood forecasting.

Impacts of 2000-2050 Climate Change on Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Air Quality in China Based on Statistical Projections Using an Ensemble of Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, D. M.; Tai, A. P. K.; Shen, L.; Moch, J. M.; van Donkelaar, A.; Mickley, L. J.

2017-12-01

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality is strongly dependent on not only on emissions but also meteorological conditions. Here we examine the dominant synoptic circulation patterns that control day-to-day PM2.5 variability over China. We perform principal component (PC) analysis on 1998-2016 NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis I daily meteorological fields to diagnose distinct synoptic meteorological modes, and perform PC regression on spatially interpolated 2014-2016 daily mean PM2.5 concentrations in China to identify modes dominantly explaining PM2.5 variability. We find that synoptic systems, e.g., cold-frontal passages, maritime inflow and frontal precipitation, can explain up to 40% of the day-to-day PM2.5 variability in major metropolitan regions in China. We further investigate how annually changing frequencies of synoptic systems, as well as changing local meteorology, drive interannual PM2.5 variability. We apply a spectral analysis on the PC time series to obtain the 1998-2016 annual median synoptic frequency, and use a forward-selection multiple linear regression (MLR) model of satellite-derived 1998-2015 annual mean PM2.5 concentrations on local meteorology and synoptic frequency, selecting predictors that explain the highest fraction of interannual PM2.5 variability while guarding against multicollinearity. To estimate the effect of climate change on future PM2.5 air quality, we project a multimodel ensemble of 15 CMIP5 models under the RCP8.5 scenario on the PM2.5-to-meteorology sensitivities derived for the present-day from the MLR model. Our results show that climate change could be responsible for increases in PM2.5 of more than 25 μg m-3 in northwestern China and 10 mg m-3 in northeastern China by the 2050s. Increases in synoptic frequency of cold-frontal passages cause only a modest 1 μg m-3 decrease in PM2.5 in North China Plain. Our analyses show that climate change imposes a significant penalty on air quality over China and poses serious threat on human health under the RCP8.5 future.

Future projections of synoptic weather types over the Arabian Peninsula during the twenty-first century using an ensemble of CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; McCabe, Matthew F.

2017-10-01

An assessment of future change in synoptic conditions over the Arabian Peninsula throughout the twenty-first century was performed using 20 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. We employed the mean sea level pressure (SLP) data from model output together with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and compared the relevant circulation types produced by the Lamb classification scheme for the base period 1975-2000. Overall, model results illustrated good agreement with the reanalysis, albeit with a tendency to underestimate cyclonic (C) and southeasterly (SE) patterns and to overestimate anticyclones and directional flows. We also investigated future projections for each circulation-type during the rainy season (December-May) using three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), comprising RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Overall, two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5) revealed a statistically significant increase in weather types favoring above normal rainfall in the region (e.g., C and E-types). In contrast, weather types associated with lower amounts of rainfall (e.g., anticyclones) are projected to decrease in winter but increase in spring. For all scenarios, there was consistent agreement on the sign of change (i.e., positive/negative) for the most frequent patterns (e.g., C, SE, E and A-types), whereas the sign was uncertain for less recurrent types (e.g., N, NW, SE, and W). The projected changes in weather type frequencies in the region can be viewed not only as indicators of change in rainfall response but may also be used to inform impact studies pertinent to water resource planning and management, extreme weather analysis, and agricultural production.

Seasonal Dependence of Geomagnetic Active-Time Northern High-Latitude Upper Thermospheric Winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhadly, Manbharat S.; Emmert, John T.; Drob, Douglas P.; Conde, Mark G.; Doornbos, Eelco; Shepherd, Gordon G.; Makela, Jonathan J.; Wu, Qian; Nieciejewski, Richard J.; Ridley, Aaron J.

2018-01-01

This study is focused on improving the poorly understood seasonal dependence of northern high-latitude F region thermospheric winds under active geomagnetic conditions. The gaps in our understanding of the dynamic high-latitude thermosphere are largely due to the sparseness of thermospheric wind measurements. With current observational facilities, it is infeasible to construct a synoptic picture of thermospheric winds, but enough data with wide spatial and temporal coverage have accumulated to construct a meaningful statistical analysis. We use long-term data from eight ground-based and two space-based instruments to derive climatological wind patterns as a function of magnetic local time, magnetic latitude, and season. These diverse data sets possess different geometries and different spatial and solar activity coverage. The major challenge is to combine these disparate data sets into a coherent picture while overcoming the sampling limitations and biases among them. In our previous study (focused on quiet time winds), we found bias in the Gravity Field and Steady State Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) cross-track winds. Here we empirically quantify the GOCE bias and use it as a correction profile for removing apparent bias before empirical wind formulation. The assimilated wind patterns exhibit all major characteristics of high-latitude neutral circulation. The latitudinal extent of duskside circulation expands almost 10∘ from winter to summer. The dawnside circulation subsides from winter to summer. Disturbance winds derived from geomagnetic active and quiet winds show strong seasonal and latitudinal variability. Comparisons between wind patterns derived here and Disturbance Wind Model (DWM07) (which have no seasonal dependence) suggest that DWM07 is skewed toward summertime conditions.

Regional severe particle pollution and its association with synoptic weather patterns in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu, Lei; Xie, Min; Gao, Da; Wang, Tijian; Fang, Dexian; Liu, Qian; Huang, Anning; Peng, Liwen

2017-11-01

Regional air pollution is significantly associated with dominant weather systems. In this study, the relationship between the particle pollution over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region and weather patterns is investigated. First, the pollution characteristics of particles in the YRD are studied using in situ monitoring data (PM2.5 and PM10) in 16 cities and Terra/MODIS AOD (aerosol optical depth) products collected from December 2013 to November 2014. The results show that the regional mean value of AOD is high in the YRD, with an annual mean value of 0.71±0.57. The annual mean particle concentrations in the cities of Jiangsu Province all exceed the national air quality standard. The pollution level is higher in inland areas, and the highest concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 are 79 and 130 µg m-3, respectively, in Nanjing. The PM2.5 : PM10 ratios are typically high, thus indicating that PM2.5 is the overwhelmingly dominant particle pollutant in the YRD. The wintertime peak of particle concentrations is tightly linked to the increased emissions during the heating season as well as adverse meteorological conditions. Second, based on NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis data, synoptic weather classification is conducted and five typical synoptic patterns are objectively identified. Finally, the synthetic analysis of meteorological fields and backward trajectories are applied to further clarify how these patterns impact particle concentrations. It is demonstrated that air pollution is more or less influenced by high-pressure systems. The relative position of the YRD to the anti-cyclonic circulation exerts significant effects on the air quality of the YRD. The YRD is largely influenced by polluted air masses from the northern and the southern inland areas when it is located at the rear of the East Asian major trough. The significant downward motion of air masses results in stable weather conditions, thereby hindering the diffusion of air pollutants. Thus, this pattern is quite favorable for the accumulation of pollutants in the YRD, resulting in higher regional mean PM10 (116.5 ± 66.9 µg m-3), PM2.5 (75.9 ± 49.9 µg m-3), and AOD (0.74) values. Moreover, this pattern is also responsible for the occurrence of most large-scale regional PM2.5 (70.4 %) and PM10 (78.3 %) pollution episodes. High wind speed and clean marine air masses may also play important roles in the mitigation of pollution in the YRD. Especially when the clean marine air masses account for a large proportion of all trajectories (i.e., when the YRD is affected by the cyclonic system or oceanic circulation), the air in the YRD has a lesser chance of being polluted. The observed correlation between weather patterns and particle pollution can provide valuable insight into making decisions about pollution control and mitigation strategies.

Results of the US contribution to the joint US/USSR Bering Sea experiment. [atmospheric circulation and sea ice cover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, W. J.; Chang, T. C.; Fowler, M. G.; Gloersen, P.; Kuhn, P. M.; Ramseier, R. O.; Ross, D. B.; Stambach, G.; Webster, W. J., Jr.; Wilheit, T. T.

1974-01-01

The atmospheric circulation which occurred during the Bering Sea Experiment, 15 February to 10 March 1973, in and around the experiment area is analyzed and related to the macroscale morphology and dynamics of the sea ice cover. The ice cover was very complex in structure, being made up of five ice types, and underwent strong dynamic activity. Synoptic analyses show that an optimum variety of weather situations occurred during the experiment: an initial strong anticyclonic period (6 days), followed by a period of strong cyclonic activity (6 days), followed by weak anticyclonic activity (3 days), and finally a period of weak cyclonic activity (4 days). The data of the mesoscale test areas observed on the four sea ice option flights, and ship weather, and drift data give a detailed description of mesoscale ice dynamics which correlates well with the macroscale view: anticyclonic activity advects the ice southward with strong ice divergence and a regular lead and polynya pattern; cyclonic activity advects the ice northward with ice convergence, or slight divergence, and a random lead and polynya pattern.

Saharan dust intrusions in Spain: Health impacts and associated synoptic conditions.

PubMed

Díaz, Julio; Linares, Cristina; Carmona, Rocío; Russo, Ana; Ortiz, Cristina; Salvador, Pedro; Trigo, Ricardo Machado

2017-07-01

A lot of papers have been published about the impact on mortality of Sahara dust intrusions in individual cities. However, there is a lack of studies that analyse the impact on a country and scarcer if in addition the analysis takes into account the meteorological conditions that favour these intrusions. The main aim is to examine the effect of Saharan dust intrusions on daily mortality in different Spanish regions and to characterize the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with such dust intrusions. For determination of days with Saharan dust intrusions, we used information supplied by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food & Environment, it divides Spain into 9 main areas. In each of these regions, a representative province was selected. A time series analysis has been performed to analyse the relationship between daily mortality and PM 10 levels in the period from 01.01.04 to 31.12.09, using Poisson regression and stratifying the analysis by the presence or absence of Saharan dust advections. The proportion of days on which there are Saharan dust intrusions rises to 30% of days. The synoptic pattern is characterised by an anticyclonic ridge extending from northern Africa to the Iberian Peninsula. Particulate matter (PM) on days with intrusions are associated with daily mortality, something that does not occur on days without intrusions, indicating that Saharan dust may be a risk factor for daily mortality. In other cases, what Saharan dust intrusions do is to change the PM-related mortality behaviour pattern, going from PM 2.5 . A study such as the one conducted here, in which meteorological analysis of synoptic situations which favour Saharan dust intrusions, is combined with the effect on health at a city level, would seem to be crucial when it comes to analysing the differentiated mortality pattern in situations of Saharan dust intrusions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spectral Gap Energy Transfer in Atmospheric Boundary Layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhushan, S.; Walters, K.; Barros, A. P.; Nogueira, M.

2012-12-01

Experimental measurements of atmospheric turbulence energy spectra show E(k) ~ k-3 slopes at synoptic scales (~ 600 km - 2000 km) and k-5/3 slopes at the mesoscales (< 400 km). The -5/3 spectra is presumably related to 3D turbulence which is dominated by the classical Kolmogrov energy cascade. The -3 spectra is related to 2D turbulence, which is dominated by strong forward scatter of enstrophy and weak forward scatter of energy. In classical 2D turbulence theory, it is expected that a strong backward energy cascade would develop at the synoptic scale, and that circulation would grow infinitely. To limit this backward transfer, energy arrest at macroscales must be introduced. The most commonly used turbulence models developed to mimic the above energy transfer include the energy backscatter model for 2D turbulence in the horizontal plane via Large Eddy Simulation (LES) models, dissipative URANS models in the vertical plane, and Ekman friction for the energy arrest. One of the controversial issues surrounding the atmospheric turbulence spectra is the explanation of the generation of the 2D and 3D spectra and transition between them, for energy injection at the synoptic scales. Lilly (1989) proposed that the existence of 2D and 3D spectra can only be explained by the presence of an additional energy injection in the meso-scale region. A second issue is related to the observations of dual peak spectra with small variance in meso-scale, suggesting that the energy transfer occurs across a spectral gap (Van Der Hoven, 1957). Several studies have confirmed the spectral gap for the meso-scale circulations, and have suggested that they are enhanced by smaller scale vertical convection rather than by the synoptic scales. Further, the widely accepted energy arrest mechanism by boundary layer friction is closely related to the spectral gap transfer. This study proposes an energy transfer mechanism for atmospheric turbulence with synoptic scale injection, wherein the generation of 2D and 3D spectra is explained using spectral gap energy transfer. The existence of the spectral gap energy transfer is validated by performing LES for the interaction of large scale circulation with a wall, and studying the evolution of the energy spectra both near to and far from the wall. Simulations are also performed using the Advanced Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF-ARW) for moist zonal flow over Gaussian ridge, and the energy spectra close and away from the ground are studied. The energy spectra predicted by WRF-ARW are qualitatively compared with LES results to emphasize the limitations of the currently used turbulence parameterizations. Ongoing validation efforts include: (1) extending the interaction of large scale circulation with wall simulations to finer grids to capture a wider range of wavenumbers; and (2) a coupled 2D-3D simulation is planned to predict the entire atmospheric turbulence spectra at a very low computational expense. The overarching objective of this study to develop turbulence modeling capability based on the energy transfer mechanisms proposed in this study. Such a model will be implemented in WRF-ARW, and applied to atmospheric simulations, for example the prediction of moisture convergence patterns at the meso-scale in the southeast United States (Tao & Barros, 2008).

Classification of summertime synoptic patterns in Beijing and their associations with boundary layer structure affecting aerosol pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Yucong; Guo, Jianping; Liu, Shuhua; Liu, Huan; Li, Zhanqing; Zhang, Wanchun; Zhai, Panmao

2017-02-01

Meteorological conditions within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) are closely governed by large-scale synoptic patterns and play important roles in air quality by directly and indirectly affecting the emission, transport, formation, and deposition of air pollutants. Partly due to the lack of long-term fine-resolution observations of the PBL, the relationships between synoptic patterns, PBL structure, and aerosol pollution in Beijing have not been well understood. This study applied the obliquely rotated principal component analysis in T-mode to classify the summertime synoptic conditions over Beijing using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis from 2011 to 2014, and investigated their relationships with PBL structure and aerosol pollution by combining numerical simulations, measurements of surface meteorological variables, fine-resolution soundings, the concentration of particles with diameters less than or equal to 2.5 µm, total cloud cover (CLD), and reanalysis data. Among the seven identified synoptic patterns, three types accounted for 67 % of the total number of cases studied and were associated with heavy aerosol pollution events. These particular synoptic patterns were characterized by high-pressure systems located to the east or southeast of Beijing at the 925 hPa level, which blocked the air flow seaward, and southerly PBL winds that brought in polluted air from the southern industrial zone. The horizontal transport of pollutants induced by the synoptic forcings may be the most important factor affecting the air quality of Beijing in summer. In the vertical dimension, these three synoptic patterns featured a relatively low boundary layer height (BLH) in the afternoon, accompanied by high CLD and southerly cold advection from the seas within the PBL. The high CLD reduced the solar radiation reaching the surface, and suppressed the thermal turbulence, leading to lower BLH. Besides, the numerical sensitive experiments show that cold advection induced by the large-scale synoptic forcing may have cooled the PBL, leading to an increase in near-surface stability and a decrease in the BLH in the afternoon. Moreover, when warm advection appeared simultaneously above the top level of the PBL, the thermal inversion layer capping the PBL may have been strengthened, resulting in the further suppression of PBL and thus the deterioration of aerosol pollution levels. This study has important implications for understanding the crucial roles that meteorological factors (at both synoptic and local scales) play in modulating and forecasting aerosol pollution in Beijing and its surrounding area.

Synoptic-scale Rossby waves and the geographic distribution of lateral transport routes between the tropics and the extratropics in the lower stratosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horinouchi, Takeshi; Sassi, Fabrizio; Boville, Byron A.

2000-11-01

Atmospheric transport between the tropics and the extratropics, in the lowest part of the stratosphere during Northern Hemisphere winter, is investigated. The role of synoptic-scale disturbances that propagate laterally into the tropics is examined using the middle atmosphere version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model Version 3 general circulation model. In the lower stratosphere, synoptic-scale Rossby waves propagate vigorously from the northern (i.e., winter) extratropics through two ``westerly ducts,'' where the westerly zonal mean winds near the equator are favorable to Rossby wave propagation. The waves break in the westerly ducts and modify the mean potential vorticity (PV) structure to connect subtropical and equatorial regions of sharp PV gradients. Frequent wave breaking and the wave -induced PV structure create distinct routes where transport occurs vigorously between the tropics and the northern extratropics. Interhemispheric transport also occurs through regions associated with the westerly ducts. In the Southern (summer) Hemisphere lower stratosphere, synoptic-scale disturbances propagate mainly as ``tongues'' of PV elongated from extratropical disturbances. The transport between the tropics and the southern extratropics has a strong geographic preference but is dominated by the monsoon circulation, as was shown for the upper troposphere by Chen [1995]. PV tongues and other transient anomalies are of secondary importance.

Seasonal prevailing surface winds in Northern Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tošić, Ivana; Gavrilov, Milivoj B.; Marković, Slobodan B.; Ruman, Albert; Putniković, Suzana

2018-02-01

Seasonal prevailing surface winds are analyzed in the territory of Northern Serbia, using observational data from 12 meteorological stations over several decades. In accordance with the general definition of prevailing wind, two special definitions of this term are used. The seasonal wind roses in 16 directions at each station are analyzed. This study shows that the prevailing winds in Northern Serbia have northwestern and southeastern directions. Circulation weather types over Serbia are presented in order to determine the connections between the synoptic circulations and prevailing surface winds. Three controlling pressure centers, i.e., the Mediterranean cyclone, Siberian high, and the Azores anticyclone, appear as the most important large-scale factors that influence the creation of the prevailing winds over Northern Serbia. Beside the synoptic cause of the prevailing winds, it is noted that the orography of the eastern Balkans has a major influence on the winds from the second quadrant. It was found that the frequencies of circulation weather types are in agreement with those of the prevailing winds over Northern Serbia.

Variational optimization analysis of temperature and moisture advection in a severe storm environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcfarland, M. J.

1975-01-01

Horizontal wind components, potential temperature, and mixing ratio fields associated with a severe storm environment in the south central U.S. were analyzed from synoptic upper air observations with a nonhomogeneous, anisotropic weighting function. Each data field was filtered with variational optimization analysis techniques. Variational optimization analysis was also performed on the vertical motion field and was used to produce advective forecasts of the potential temperature and mixing ratio fields. Results show that the dry intrusion is characterized by warm air, the advection of which produces a well-defined upward motion pattern. A corresponding downward motion pattern comprising a deep vertical circulation in the warm air sector of the low pressure system was detected. The axes alignment of maximum dry and warm advection with the axis of the tornado-producing squall line also resulted.

Circulation Type Classifications and their nexus to Van Bebber's storm track Vb

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hofstätter, M.; Chimani, B.

2012-04-01

Circulation Type Classifications (CTCs) are tools to identify repetitive and predominantly stationary patterns of the atmospheric circulation over a certain area, with the purpose to enable the recognition of specific characteristics in surface climate variables. On the other hand storm tracks can be used to identify similar types of synoptic events from a non-stationary, kinematic perspective. Such a storm track classification for Europe has been done in the late 19th century by Van Bebber (1882, 1891), from which the famous type Vb and Vc/d remained up to the present day because of to their association with major flooding events like in August 2002 in Europe. In this work a systematic tracking procedure has been developed, to determine storm track types and their characteristics especially for the Eastern Alpine Region in the period 1961-2002, using ERA40 and ERAinterim reanalysis. The focus thereby is on cyclone tracks of type V as suggested by van Bebber and congeneric types. This new catalogue is used as a reference to verify the hypothesis of a certain coherence of storm track Vb with certain circulation types (e.g. Fricke and Kaminski, 2002). Selected objective and subjective classification schemes from the COST733 action (http://cost733.met.no/, Phillip et al. 2010) are used therefore, as well as the manual classification from ZAMG (Lauscher 1972 and 1985), in which storm track Vb has been classified explicitly on a daily base since 1948. The latter scheme should prove itself as a valuable and unique data source in that issue. Results show that not less than 146 storm tracks are identified as Vb between 1961 and 2002, whereas only three events could be found from literature, pointing to big subjectivity and preconception in the issue of Vb storm tracks. The annual number of Vb storm tracks do not show any significant trend over the last 42 years, but large variations from year to year. Circulation type classification CAP27 (Cluster Analysis of Principal Components) is the best performing, fully objective scheme tested herein, showing the power to discriminate Vb events. Most of the other fully objective schemes do by far not perform as well. Largest skill in that issue can be seen from the subjective/manual CTCs, proving themselves to enhance relevant synoptic phenomena instead of emphasizing mathematic criteria in the classification. The hypothesis of Fricke and Kaminsky can definitely be supported by this work: Vb storm tracks are included in one or the other stationary circulation pattern, but to which extent depends on the specific characteristics of the CTC in question.

Statistical characteristics of mudflows in the piedmont areas of Uzbekistan and the role of the synoptic processes for the formation of mudflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mamadjanova, Gavkhar; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2016-04-01

Mudflows are formed almost every year in the territory of Uzbekistan and neighbouring countries. They represent a major threat to human life and settlements and can significantly damage infrastructure. In general, in addition to elevated soil moisture conditions, severe local rainfall events (e.g., 15 mm of precipitation in 12 hours) and associated air temperature conditions are understood to be the main factors in the formation of mudflows in the piedmont areas of Uzbekistan. The main purpose of this study is to understand factors on local and synoptic to hemispheric scales, which cause mudflow variability on interannual and longer time scales. To fulfil this objective, in a first step historical data of mudflow occurrences (mainly March to August) in Uzbekistan provided by the Centre of Hydro-meteorological Service of the Republic of Uzbekistan (Uzhydromet) for more than 140 years are statistically analysed. During the investigation period a total of around 3000 mudflow events were observed with about 21 events per year on average and a maximum of 168 mudflows in 1930. To understand principle factors steering the variability of mudflow occurrences, synoptic scale circulation weather types (CWT) over Central Asia and Uzbekistan are investigated. The majority of mudflows (22%) occur during the advection of westerly airflow when moist air from Central and Southern Europe reaches Uzbekistan. This objectively classified synoptic situation can be related to one of the 15 primary synoptic circulation types over the Central Asia and Uzbekistan which were subjectively derived by Bugayev and Giorgio in 1930-40s (Bugayev et al., 1957), thus confirming the validity of this approach. By means of the CWT approach, we further analyse that on mudflow-days the frequencies of cyclonic, westerly, south-westerly and north-westerly stream flows are increased in comparison to the climatological frequency of occurrence of these circulation weather types. Details of the necessary and sufficient meteorological conditions within a CWT class are investigated. Further studies will investigate and identify key factors steering the variability in CWT frequency variability over Central Asia on longer timescales and how these are related to known major variability modes in the climate system.

Association between atmospheric circulation patterns and firn-ice core records from the Inilchek glacierized area, central Tien Shan, Asia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aizen, V.B.; Aizen, E.M.; Melack, J.M.; Kreutz, K.J.; Cecil, L.D.

2004-01-01

Glacioclimatological research in the central Tien Shan was performed in the summers of 1998 and 1999 on the South Inilchek Glacier at 5100-5460 m. A 14.36 m firn-ice core and snow samples were collected and used for stratigraphic, isotopic, and chemical analyses. The firn-ice core and snow records were related to snow pit measurements at an event scale and to meteorological data and synoptic indices of atmospheric circulation at annual and seasonal scales. Linear relationships between the seasonal air temperature and seasonal isotopic composition in accumulated precipitation were established. Changes in the ??18O air temperature relationship, in major ion concentration and in the ratios between chemical species, were used to identify different sources of moisture and investigate changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. Precipitation over the central Tien Shan is characterized by the lowest ionic content among the Tien Shan glaciers and indicates its mainly marine origin. In seasons of minimum precipitation, autumn and winter, water vapor was derived from the and and semiarid regions in central Eurasia and contributed annual maximal solute content to snow accumulation in Tien Shan. The lowest content of major ions was observed in spring and summer layers, which represent maximum seasonal accumulation when moisture originates over the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean and Black Seas. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Thermal circulation patterns and turbulent fluxes along steep mountain slopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadeau, D. F.; Pardyjak, E.; Higgins, C. W.; Huwald, H.; Baerenbold, F.; Parlange, M. B.

2010-12-01

In hydrology, it is crucial to understand the atmospheric flow dynamics in mountainous terrain to predict turbulent exchanges of heat and moisture accurately at the regional scale. Under clear sky and weak synoptic conditions, these land-atmosphere interactions are driven by thermal circulations that take place over a strong diurnal cycle. During the day, winds travel up the mountain slopes and at night, they travel down toward to the bottom of the valley. Little is known about how the transition between these two regimes takes place over steep slopes. The Slope Experiment at La Fouly (SELF) in the Swiss Alps was designed to investigate these transition periods throughout summer 2010. In this paper, we will present the first results obtained from this field campaign. Data from a network of 16 wireless surface stations is used to define catchment wide micrometeorological processes such as slope and valley wind system development, while detailed measurements of the turbulent processes on a steep idealized slope (20 to 45 degrees) were also made. The slope was instrumented along a transect with four towers (including a surface energy budget station and 10 m tower with sonic anemometers), 13 surface temperature measurement stations and a tethered balloon system to capture the complex interplay between surface and atmosphere. Initial data presented will include basic circulation pattern development and measurements of the turbulent fluxes of water vapor, heat and momentum on the slope.

Spatial and temporal variations in lagoon and coastal processes of the southern Brazilian coast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dejesusparada, N. (Principal Investigator); Herz, R.

1980-01-01

From a collection of information gathered during a long period, through the orbital platforms SKYLAB and LANDSAT, it was possible to establish a method for the systematic study of the dynamical regime of lagoon and marine surface waters, on coastal plain of Rio Grande do Sul. The series of multispectral images analyzed by visual and automatic techniques put in evidence spatial and temporal variations reflected in the optical properties of waters, which carry different loads of materials in suspension. The identified patterns offer a synoptic picture of phenomena of great amplitude, from which trends of circulation can be inferred, correlating the atmospheric and hydrologic variables simultaneously to the overflight of orbital vehicles.

Analysis of Synoptic Weather Types and Its Influence on Precipitation in the Marmara Region (NW Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baltaci, H.; Kindap, T.; Unal, A.; Karaca, M.

2012-04-01

In this study, we investigated the relationship between synoptic weather types and rainfall patterns in the Marmara region, northwestern part of Turkey. For this purpose, the automated Lamb weather type classification method was applied to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily mean sea level pressure data for the period between 2001 and 2010. Ten synoptic weather types were found that represent the 90% of the synoptic patterns that affect the Marmara region. Based on the annual frequency analysis, mainly six synoptic weather types, 24% (NorthEast), 21% (North), 11% (South), 9% (SouthWest), 7% (Anticyclonic), 5% (Cyclonic), were found dominant in the region. Multiple comparison tests suggest that (i.e., Bonferroni test) northerly patterns (i.e., North and NorthEast) have statistically significantly higher percentages as compared to the southerly (i.e., South and SouthWest) and the rest of the patterns (i.e., Anticylonic and Cylonic). During winter months, N- and NE-patterns observed less frequently than the annual frequencies of them, 18% and 13% of the period, respectively. On the other hand, due to the formation of the low pressure center located over the central Mediterranean Sea, S- and SW-patterns were observed more frequently than their annual mean frequencies, 16% and 17%, respectively. During summer months, N- and NE-patterns become dominant in the region, and they constitute about three quarters of the period, 25% and 44%, respectively. The low pressure center located over central Anatolia and Black Sea brings moist and cool air to the region, preventing excessive heating during the summer season. Cyclonic patterns observed less frequent during the winter and fall months, about 3%. They become more frequent during the summer season, 9% as a result of the shifting of the subtropical jet stream to the south, and the seasonal movement of the Basra low pressure toward the inner and northern parts of the Anatolian peninsula. On the other hand, Anticyclonic patterns are more common in the fall season 11% due to the expansion of spatial extent of the anticyclone center located over the Caspian Sea. Daily precipitation records for the period of between 2001 and 2010 belong to 14 meteorological stations in the region were investigated to understand the influence of synoptic weather types on precipitation. Based on daily precipitation records, about one-third of the NE-patterns result in precipitation which is slightly larger than patterns from other directions. The corresponding values for SW-, N- and S-patterns are 29%, 25% and 25%, respectively. Northerly patterns (N and NE) causes more frequent precipitation on the northern and eastern parts of the region. On the other hand, southerly patterns (S and SW) are more influential and cause more frequent precipitation on the south and northwestern parts of the region. Therefore, frequency of synoptic weather types and daily precipitation records suggest that precipitation regimes are of a different nature in northern and southern parts of the Marmara region. Keywords Synoptic weather types; Marmara Region; Lamb classification; Rainfall patterns

Hydroclimate variability and regional atmospheric circulation over the past 1,350 years reconstructed from Lake Ohau, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roop, H. A.; Levy, R. H.; Vandergoes, M.; Dunbar, G. B.; Howarth, J. D.; Lorrey, A.; Phipps, S. J.

2016-12-01

Comprehensive understanding of natural climate-system dynamics requires high-resolution paleoclimate records extending beyond the instrumental period. This is particularly the case for the sparsely-instrumented Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, where the timing and amplitude of regional and hemispheric-scale climatic events are poorly constrained. Here we present a 1,350-year record of hydroclimatic variability and regional circulation derived from an annually laminated sediment record from Lake Ohau, South Island, New Zealand (44.23°S, 169.85°E). The climate of New Zealand is influenced by climatological patterns originating in both the tropics (e.g. El-Niño-Southern Oscillation, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation) and the Antarctic (Southern Annular Mode, SAM). Utilizing the annually resolved Lake Ohau hydroclimate record in combination with a tree-ring record of summer temperature from Oroko Swamp, New Zealand (Cook et al., 2002), we generate a circulation index for the Western South Island of New Zealand. This index utilizes the temperature and precipitation anomalies defined by the Regional Climate Regime Classification scheme for New Zealand to assign synoptic scale circulation patterns to 25-year intervals from 900-2000 AD. This circulation index shows significant periods of change, most notably 835 - 985 AD when northerly airflow dominated and from 1385 - 1710 AD when strong southerly airflow persisted. Comparisons with regional SAM and ENSO reconstructions show that dry, warm conditions at Lake Ohau are consistently associated with strengthened tropical teleconnections to New Zealand and a positive SAM, while cold and wet conditions are driven by increased southerly airflow and negative phase SAM. A persistent negative SAM dominates the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1385-1710 AD) interval in the Western South Island. This same period coincides with the Northern Hemisphere LIA.

Regional climates in the GISS general circulation model: Surface air temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hewitson, Bruce

1994-01-01

One of the more viable research techniques into global climate change for the purpose of understanding the consequent environmental impacts is based on the use of general circulation models (GCMs). However, GCMs are currently unable to reliably predict the regional climate change resulting from global warming, and it is at the regional scale that predictions are required for understanding human and environmental responses. Regional climates in the extratropics are in large part governed by the synoptic-scale circulation and the feasibility of using this interscale relationship is explored to provide a way of moving to grid cell and sub-grid cell scales in the model. The relationships between the daily circulation systems and surface air temperature for points across the continental United States are first developed in a quantitative form using a multivariate index based on principal components analysis (PCA) of the surface circulation. These relationships are then validated by predicting daily temperature using observed circulation and comparing the predicted values with the observed temperatures. The relationships predict surface temperature accurately over the major portion of the country in winter, and for half the country in summer. These relationships are then applied to the surface synoptic circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM control run, and a set of surface grid cell temperatures are generated. These temperatures, based on the larger-scale validated circulation, may now be used with greater confidence at the regional scale. The generated temperatures are compared to those of the model and show that the model has regional errors of up to 10 C in individual grid cells.

Atmospheric conditions associated with extreme fire activity in the Western Mediterranean region.

PubMed

Amraoui, Malik; Pereira, Mário G; DaCamara, Carlos C; Calado, Teresa J

2015-08-15

Active fire information provided by TERRA and AQUA instruments on-board sun-synchronous polar MODIS platform is used to describe fire activity in the Western Mediterranean and to identify and characterize the synoptic patterns of several meteorological fields associated with the occurrence of extreme fire activity episodes (EEs). The spatial distribution of the fire pixels during the period of 2003-2012 leads to the identification of two most affected sub-regions, namely the Northern and Western parts of the Iberian Peninsula (NWIP) and Northern Africa (NAFR). The temporal distribution of the fire pixels in these two sub-regions is characterized by: (i) high and non-concurrent inter- and intra-annual variability with maximum values during the summer of 2003 and 2005 in NWIP and 2007 and 2012 in NAFR; and, (ii) high intra-annual variability dominated by a prominent annual cycle with a main peak centred in August in both sub-regions and a less pronounced secondary peak in March only evident in NWIP region. The 34 EEs identified were grouped according to the location, period of occurrence and spatial configuration of the associated synoptic patterns into 3 clusters (NWIP-summer, NWIP-winter and NAFR-summer). Results from the composite analysis reveal similar fire weather conditions (statistically significant positive anomalies of air temperature and negative anomalies of air relative humidity) but associated with different circulation patterns at lower and mid-levels of the atmosphere associated with the occurrence of EEs in each cluster of the Western Mediterranean region. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Atmospheric conditions during high ragweed pollen concentrations in Zagreb, Croatia.

PubMed

Prtenjak, Maja Telišman; Srnec, Lidija; Peternel, Renata; Madžarević, Valentina; Hrga, Ivana; Stjepanović, Barbara

2012-11-01

We examined the atmospheric conditions favourable to the occurrence of maximum concentrations of ragweed pollen with an extremely high risk of producing allergy. Over the 2002-2009 period, daily pollen data collected in Zagreb were used to identify two periods of high pollen concentration (> 600 grains/m(3)) for our analysis: period A (3-4 September 2002) and period B (6-7 September 2003). Synoptic conditions in both periods were very similar: Croatia was under the influence of a lower sector high pressure system moving slowly eastward over Eastern Europe. During the 2002-2009 period, this type of weather pattern (on ~ 70% of days), in conjunction with almost non-gradient surface pressure conditions in the area (on ~ 30% of days) characterised days when the daily pollen concentrations were higher than 400 grains/m(3). Numerical experiments using a mesoscale model at fine resolution showed successful multi-day simulations reproducing the local topographic influence on wind flow and in reasonable agreement with available observations. According to the model, the relatively weak synoptic flow (predominantly from the eastern direction) allowed local thermal circulations to develop over Zagreb during both high pollen episodes. Two-hour pollen concentrations and 48-h back-trajectories indicated that regional-range transport of pollen grains from the central Pannonian Plain was the cause of the high pollen concentrations during period A. During period B, the north-westward regional-range transport in Zagreb was supplemented significantly by pronounced horizontal recirculation of pollen grains. This recirculation happened within the diurnal local circulation over the city, causing a late-evening increase in pollen concentration.

Atmospheric conditions during high ragweed pollen concentrations in Zagreb, Croatia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prtenjak, Maja Telišman; Srnec, Lidija; Peternel, Renata; Madžarević, Valentina; Hrga, Ivana; Stjepanović, Barbara

2012-11-01

We examined the atmospheric conditions favourable to the occurrence of maximum concentrations of ragweed pollen with an extremely high risk of producing allergy. Over the 2002-2009 period, daily pollen data collected in Zagreb were used to identify two periods of high pollen concentration (> 600 grains/m3) for our analysis: period A (3-4 September 2002) and period B (6-7 September 2003). Synoptic conditions in both periods were very similar: Croatia was under the influence of a lower sector high pressure system moving slowly eastward over Eastern Europe. During the 2002-2009 period, this type of weather pattern (on ~ 70% of days), in conjunction with almost non-gradient surface pressure conditions in the area (on ~ 30% of days) characterised days when the daily pollen concentrations were higher than 400 grains/m3. Numerical experiments using a mesoscale model at fine resolution showed successful multi-day simulations reproducing the local topographic influence on wind flow and in reasonable agreement with available observations. According to the model, the relatively weak synoptic flow (predominantly from the eastern direction) allowed local thermal circulations to develop over Zagreb during both high pollen episodes. Two-hour pollen concentrations and 48-h back-trajectories indicated that regional-range transport of pollen grains from the central Pannonian Plain was the cause of the high pollen concentrations during period A. During period B, the north-westward regional-range transport in Zagreb was supplemented significantly by pronounced horizontal recirculation of pollen grains. This recirculation happened within the diurnal local circulation over the city, causing a late-evening increase in pollen concentration.

A Model Based Analysis of the Role of an Upper-Level Front and Stratospheric Intrusion in the Mack Lake Fire

Treesearch

Tarisa K. Zimet; Jonathan E. Martin

2003-01-01

Meteorological assessment of wildfire risk has traditionally involved identification of several synoptic types empirically determined to influence wildfire spread. Such weather types are characterized by identifiable synoptic-scale structures and processes. Schroeder et. al. (1964) identified four recognizable synoptic-scale patterns that contribute most frequently to...

Relationship between glacier melting and atmospheric circulation in the southeast Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osipova, O. P.; Osipov, E. Y.

2018-01-01

The interaction between climate and cryosphere is a key issue in recent years. Changes in surface mass balance of mountain glaciers closely correspond to differential changes in atmospheric circulation. Mountain glaciers in southeast Siberia located on East Sayan, Baikalsky and Kodar ridges have been continuously shrinking since the end of the Little Ice Age. In this study we used daily synoptic weather maps (Irkutsk Center of Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring), 500 hPa, 700 hPa and 850 hPa geopotential height and air temperature data of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis to assess relationships between atmospheric circulation patterns and the sum of positive temperature (SPT), a predictor of summer ice/snow ablation. Results show that increased SPT (ablation) is generally associated with anticyclones and anticyclonic pressure fields (with cloudless weather conditions) and warm atmospheric fronts. Decreased SPT (ablation) is strongly correlated with cyclones and cyclonic type pressure fields, cold atmospheric fronts and air advections. Significant correlations have been found between ablation and cyclonic/anticyclonic activity. Revealed decreasing trends in the SPT in three glaciarized ridges at the beginning of the 21st century led to changes of air temperature and snow/ice melt climates.

Arctic Sea Ice, Eurasia Snow, and Extreme Winter Haze in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Y.; Wang, Y.; Xie, Z.; Zhang, Y.; Koo, J. H.

2017-12-01

Eastern China is experiencing more severe haze pollution in winter during recent years. Though the environmental deterioration in this region is usually attributed to the high intensity of anthropogenic emissions and large contributions from secondary aerosol formation, the impact of climate variability is also indispensable given its significant influence on regional weather systems and pollution ventilation. Here we analyzed the air quality related winter meteorological conditions over Eastern China in the last four decades and showed a worsening trend in poor regional air pollutant ventilation. Such variations increased the probability of extreme air pollution events, which is in good agreement with aerosol observations of recent years. We further identified the key circulation pattern that is conducive to the weakening ventilation and investigated the relationship between synoptic circulation changes and multiple climate forcing variables. Both statistical analysis and numerical sensitivity experiments suggested that the poor ventilation condition is linked to boreal cryosphere changes including Arctic sea ice in preceding autumn and Eurasia snowfall in earlier winter. We conducted comprehensive dynamic diagnosis and proposed a physical mechanism to explain the observed and simulated circulation changes. At last, we examined future projections of winter extreme stagnation events based on the CMIP5 projection data.

NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Graduate Student Program. [FIRE CIRRUS-II examination of coupling between an upper tropospheric cloud system and synoptic-scale dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ackerman, Thomas P.

1994-01-01

The evolution of synoptic-scale dynamics associated with a middle and upper tropospheric cloud event that occurred on 26 November 1991 is examined. The case under consideration occurred during the FIRE CIRRUS-II Intensive Field Observing Period held in Coffeyville, KS during Nov. and Dec., 1991. Using data from the wind profiler demonstration network and a temporally and spatially augmented radiosonde array, emphasis is given to explaining the evolution of the kinematically-derived ageostrophic vertical circulations and correlating the circulation with the forcing of an extensively sampled cloud field. This is facilitated by decomposing the horizontal divergence into its component parts through a natural coordinate representation of the flow. Ageostrophic vertical circulations are inferred and compared to the circulation forcing arising from geostrophic confluence and shearing deformation derived from the Sawyer-Eliassen Equation. It is found that a thermodynamically indirect vertical circulation existed in association with a jet streak exit region. The circulation was displaced to the cyclonic side of the jet axis due to the orientation of the jet exit between a deepening diffluent trough and building ridge. The cloud line formed in the ascending branch of the vertical circulation with the most concentrated cloud development occurring in conjunction with the maximum large-scale vertical motion. The relationship between the large scale dynamics and the parameterization of middle and upper tropospheric clouds in large-scale models is discussed and an example of ice water contents derived from a parameterization forced by the diagnosed vertical motions and observed water vapor contents is presented.

The life cycles of intense cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation systems observed over oceans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Phillip J.

1993-01-01

Full attention was now directed to the blocking case studies mentioned in previous reports. Coding and initial computational tests were completed for a North Atlantic blocking case that occurred in late October/early November 1985 and an upstream cyclone that developed rapidly 24 hours before block onset. This work is the subject of two papers accepted for presentation at the International Symposium on the Lifecycles of Extratropical Cyclones in Bergen, Norway, 27 June - 1 July 1994. This effort is currently highlighted by two features. The first is the extension of the Zwack-Okossi equation, originally formulated for the diagnosis of surface wave development, for application at any pressure level. The second is the separation of the basic large-scale analysis fields into synoptic-scale and planetary-scale components, using a two-dimensional Shapiro filter, and the corresponding partitioning of the Zwack-Okossi equation into synoptic-scale, planetary-scale, and synoptic/planetary-scale interaction terms. Preliminary tests suggest substantial contribution from the synoptic-scale and interaction terms.

Extreme fog events in Poland with respect to circulation conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ustrnul, Z.; Czekierda, D.; Wypych, A.

2010-09-01

Fog is a phenomenon which belongs to a group of so-called hydrometeorites and, according to the different dictionaries, it is a suspension of water droplets or ice crystals in the ground layer of the air that impairs visibility in the horizontal direction below 1 km. The phenomenon of fog, although much less dynamic or violent than other extreme phenomena, such as thunderstorms or hail, is equally dangerous and brings about huge social and economic complications. Land and air transportation suffer and fog may sometimes leads to a complete crippling of the whole economy in an area where fog occurs. The main objective of the study is determination of the circulation types bringing extreme fog events in Poland. The duration of fog at each meteorological station was considered as the main input data originated from 54 synoptic stations located across the country. The mentioned data series cover the period of 56 years (1951-2006). The occurrence of fog depends on meteorological conditions caused to a large extent by a given synoptic situation and local terrain conditions. In this study, according to its objectives, only circulation conditions are taken into consideration. These have been described by 5 different circulation classifications (Grosswetterlagen, Litynski, Osuchowska-Klein, Niedzwiedz and Ustrnul). Situations when this phenomenon occurred across a large part of the country were taken into detailed consideration. Special attention was paid to fog coverage during 24-hour periods. In this work, in light of certain doubts about the homogeneity of the observation material available, the intensity of fog was not included, as it requires additional and very tedious analysis. In the first step all cases of fog during the 1966-2006 study period which lasted 24 hours at more than 10 of the considered weather stations, i.e: at least 5 stations have been considered. As expected, in most cases, either a centre of a classical high pressure system or a high pressure wedge prevailed over Poland. In many cases, the dominance of baric patterns with advection from the eastern or southern sectors can be observed. Only in a few cases does a type with advection from the western sector come into play. In summary, it can be stated that intensive extreme fog of long duration occurred first of all in high pressure non-advective situations or along with weak advection, mainly from the southern or eastern direction. This statement, however, is not revolutionary. It simply confirms that the most troublesome of fog types is the radiation type, and can cover all of Poland at the same time and last up to several days. The study contains detailed meteorological-synoptic analyses of the most extreme events during the whole investigated period.

A new perspective on the regional hydrologic cycle over North and South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weng, Shu-Ping

The GEOS-1 vertically-integrated 3-hr moisture flux reanalyses and hourly-gridded United States station precipitation plus a satellite-based, 6-hr global precipitation estimate were employed to investigate the impacts of nocturnal low-level jets (LLJs) on the regional hydrological cycle over the central United States (Part I) and the subtropical plains of South America (Part II). Research stressed the influences of upper-level synoptic-scale waves (i.e., synoptic-scale forcings) upon the regional hydrologic processes, which were explored by the impacts associated with the occurrence of LLJ. Besides the conventional budget analysis, the adopted `synoptic-forcing approach' was proven illustrative in describing these impacts through the down-scaling process of LLJs. In Part 1, the major findings include: (1)the seasonal-averaged hydrological cycle over the Great Plains is strongly affected by the occurrence of GPLLJ, (2)the synoptic-scale forcing provided by the upper-level propagating jet (ULJ) streams is essential in generating the large-scale precipitation after the GPLLJ forms from the diurnal boundary layer process, (3)without the dynamic coupling between the ULJ and LLJ, the impact of LLJ on the hydrological cycle is demonstrated to be less important, and (4)the importance of synoptic-scale forcings in preconditioning the setting of wet/dry seasons in the interannual variability of rainfall anomaly is further illustrated by examining the changes of intensity as well as the occurrence frequency between the different types of LLJ. In Part II of this study, it was found that the occurrence of Andean LLJ represents a transient episode that detours the climatic rainfall activity along the South Atlantic Convergent Zone (SACZ) to the subtropical plains (Brazilian Nordeste) in its southwestern (northeastern) flank. The appearance of a seesaw pattern in the rainfall and flux convergence anomalies along the southeastern portion of South America, which is spatially in quadrature with the seasonal mean circulation, reflects the synoptic-scale forcing generated by the upper-level propagating transient-scale waves. In this regard, the function of the Andean LLJ in providing a scale-interaction mechanism that links the synoptic-scale setting with the localized rainfall event is the same as the GPLLJ. Due to the unique geographic background such as the narrow east-west landmass extension and the relative orientation between the Andean LLJ and the ULJ, however, the enhanced rainfall activity over the subtropical plains in response to the perturbed flux convergence is smaller than the case in the GPLLJ.

Multiscale and multidisciplinary Marine Rapid Environmental Assessment data collection methods for process studies: the case of the Taranto Gulf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Federico, Ivan; Maicu, Francesco; Pinardi, Nadia; Lyubartsev, Vladyslav; Causio, Salvatore; Caporale, Claudio; Demarte, Maurizio; Falconieri, Alfredo; Lecci, Rita; Lacava, Teodosio; Lisi, Matteo; Sepp-Neves, Augusto; Lorenzetti, Giuliano; Manfe', Giorgia; Trotta, Francesco; Zaggia, Luca; Ciliberti, Stefania Angela; Fratianni, Claudia; Grandi, Alessandro

2017-04-01

The present work aims to investigate the thermohaline properties and the circulation of the Gulf of Taranto, which is a deep, semi-enclosed ocean area in the northern Ionian sea, encircled by two Italian peninsulas of southern Apulia and Calabria. Since few observations in the past have been reported in the Gulf of Taranto, it emerged the need of planning and implementing oceanographic cruises in this area, based on an innovative concept of MREA (Marine Rapid Environmental Assessment). The methodology was based on an optimal experimental strategy to collect definitive evidences on ocean mesoscales with a spatial-and-time synoptic coverage. The MREA surveys have been performed thanks to the synergies between Italian oceanographic research centers and the Italian Navy Hydrographic Institute. Starting from the experience and results of MREA14 (Pinardi et al., 2016), which have shown in the Gulf an anticyclonic circulation in Autumn (October 2014) and the presence of submesoscale structure, a new experiment (MREA16) was repeated in a different season (Summer, June-July 2016), evaluating possible changes in current circulation. Furthermore, the new sampling methodology was refined and strengthened integrating the classical CTD data collection with additional simultaneous measurements of currents by means of vessel-mounted ADCP. The geostrophic circulation pattern derived from the CTD objective-analysis mapping techniques has been verified with the ADCP measurements. Moreover, the analysis on circulation fields confirms the presence of possible submesoscale structures, which can be well solved by a high-resolution sampling scheme. The MREA investigation in Gulf of Taranto shows a large-scale gyre anticyclonically-oriented in Autumn (MREA14) and cyclonically-oriented in Summer (MREA16). This opposite circulation pattern is probably connected to (i) the impact of Western Adriatic Coastal Current (WACC), (ii) the effect of the Northern Ionian Sea outflow-inflow system in different seasons and (iii) the local atmospheric forcing.

Impact of synoptic weather patterns on 24 h-average PM2.5 concentrations in the North China Plain during 2013-2017.

PubMed

Zhang, Hao; Yuan, Haiou; Liu, Xiaohui; Yu, Junyi; Jiao, Yongli

2018-06-15

North China Plain area (NCP) is one of the most densely populated and heavily polluted regions in the world. In the last five years, frequently happened fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) serious pollution events were one of the top environmental concerns in China. As PM 2.5 concentrations are highly influenced by synoptic flow patterns and local meteorological conditions, a two-stage hierarchical clustering method based on dynamic principal component analysis (DPCA) and standard k-means clustering algorithm was employed to classify synoptic wind fields into 6 patterns over the NCP area using the data of 5 PM 2.5 seasons (Sept. 15th-Apr. 15th) from 2013 to 2017. Among the six identified synoptic patterns, pattern of uniform pressure field (U) and that of zonal high pressure (Z H ) accounted for 78.21%, 65.55%, 63.56%, 57.11%, 59.13% and 58.27% studied heavy smog pollution events in Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, Baoding, Shijiazhuang and Xingtai city. The two particular patterns were associated with uniform pressure field and sparsely latitudinal isobar in 850 hPa level, respectively. They were also characterized by high relative humidity, low temperature, low-speed northerly wind in Tianjin and Tangshan, and southerly wind in the other cities. Under the continuous control of pattern Z H , the values of 24 h-average PM 2.5 were found to increase at a rate of 31.78 μg/m 3 per day. To evaluate the contribution of meteorological factors and precursors to PM 2.5 levels, linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) were applied to establish relations among 24 h-average PM 2.5 concentrations, concentrations of main precursors, local meteorological factors and synoptic patterns. Results show that the variations of precursors, local meteorological factors and synoptic flow patterns can explain 51.67%, 19.15% and 14.01% changes of the 24 h-average PM 2.5 concentrations, respectively. This study illustrates that dense precursor emissions are still the main cause for heavy haze pollution events, although meteorological conditions play almost equal roles sometimes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of synoptic patterns in relationship with severe rainfall events in the Ebre Observatory (Catalonia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Casas-Castillo, M. Carmen; Peña, Juan Carlos; Aran, Montserrat; Rodríguez-Solà, Raúl; Redaño, Angel; Solé, German

2018-03-01

The study has obtained a classification of the synoptic patterns associated with a selection of extreme rain episodes registered in the Ebre Observatory between 1905 and 2003, showing a return period of not less than 10 years for any duration from 5 min to 24 h. These episodes had been previously classified in four rainfall intensity groups attending to their meteorological time scale. The synoptic patterns related to every group have been obtained applying a multivariable analysis to three atmospheric levels: sea-level pressure, temperature, and geopotential at 500 hPa. Usually, the synoptic patterns associated with intense rain in southern Catalonia are featured by low-pressure systems advecting warm and wet air from the Mediterranean Sea at the low levels of the troposphere. The configuration in the middle levels of the troposphere is dominated by negative anomalies of geopotential, indicating the presence of a low or a cold front, and temperature anomalies, promoting the destabilization of the atmosphere. These configurations promote the occurrence of severe convective events due to the difference of temperature between the low and medium levels of troposphere and the contribution of humidity in the lowest levels of the atmosphere.

The effect of latent heat release on synoptic-to-planetary wave interactions and its implication for satellite observations: Theoretical modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Branscome, Lee E.; Bleck, Rainer; Obrien, Enda

1990-01-01

The project objectives are to develop process models to investigate the interaction of planetary and synoptic-scale waves including the effects of latent heat release (precipitation), nonlinear dynamics, physical and boundary-layer processes, and large-scale topography; to determine the importance of latent heat release for temporal variability and time-mean behavior of planetary and synoptic-scale waves; to compare the model results with available observations of planetary and synoptic wave variability; and to assess the implications of the results for monitoring precipitation in oceanic-storm tracks by satellite observing systems. Researchers have utilized two different models for this project: a two-level quasi-geostrophic model to study intraseasonal variability, anomalous circulations and the seasonal cycle, and a 10-level, multi-wave primitive equation model to validate the two-level Q-G model and examine effects of convection, surface processes, and spherical geometry. It explicitly resolves several planetary and synoptic waves and includes specific humidity (as a predicted variable), moist convection, and large-scale precipitation. In the past year researchers have concentrated on experiments with the multi-level primitive equation model. The dynamical part of that model is similar to the spectral model used by the National Meteorological Center for medium-range forecasts. The model includes parameterizations of large-scale condensation and moist convection. To test the validity of results regarding the influence of convective precipitation, researchers can use either one of two different convective schemes in the model, a Kuo convective scheme or a modified Arakawa-Schubert scheme which includes downdrafts. By choosing one or the other scheme, they can evaluate the impact of the convective parameterization on the circulation. In the past year researchers performed a variety of initial-value experiments with the primitive-equation model. Using initial conditions typical of climatological winter conditions, they examined the behavior of synoptic and planetary waves growing in moist and dry environments. Surface conditions were representative of a zonally averaged ocean. They found that moist convection associated with baroclinic wave development was confined to the subtropics.

Circulation and thermohaline structure of the Aral Sea in the last three years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izhitskiy, A. S.; Zavialov, P. O.

2012-04-01

The results of the 3 latest expeditions (2009 - 2011) of the Shirshov Institute to the Aral Sea are reported. We analyze the interannual variability of the basin circulation together with the thermohaline structure in order to identify the underlying mechanisms. The study is based on the results of the field surveys of August, 2009, September, 2010, and November, 2011. The vertical profiles of temperature and salinity were obtained using a CTD profiler at 6 stations across the deepest part of the western basin in 2009 and 2010, and 3 stations in 2011. Additionally, during each of the surveys, mooring stations equipped with current meters and pressure gauges were deployed for 3-5 days in the deepest portion of the western basin. A portable automatic meteorological station, continuously recording the wind stress and the principal meteorological parameters, was installed near the mooring sites. The vertical stratification exhibited a 3-layered pattern, with local salinity maxima in the upper mixed layer and near the bottom, while the intermediate layer was characterized by a core of minimum salinity and temperature. Such a pattern persisted throughout the 3 years of observations. Analysis of the current measurements data along with the meteorological data records demonstrated that the mean basin-scale surface circulation of the Large Aral Sea is likely to have remained anticyclonic, whilst the near-bottom circulation appears to be cyclonic. The current velocity and level anomalies responded energetically to winds. Correlation analysis of the velocity and surface level series versus the wind stress allowed to quantify the response of the system to the wind forcing as well as to formulate a conceptual scheme of the lake's response to wind forcing at synoptic temporal scales.

The role of synoptic weather variability in Greenland ice sheet dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, J. M.; Radic, V.

2017-12-01

Much of the large uncertainty in predictions of future global sea level rise is due to our limited understanding of Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) motion and its interactions with climate. Over the next century, climate models predict that the GrIS will experience not only gradual warming, but also changes in atmospheric circulation, hydrology, and weather, including a northward shift of the North Atlantic storm track, with greater frequency and intensity of rain storms over the GrIS. Recent studies of GrIS dynamics have focused on the effects of increased seasonal mean meltwater on ice velocities, finding only a modest impact due to compensation by subglacial drainage systems, but subglacial hydraulic theory indicates that variability on shorter timescales is also relevant: short-term surges in meltwater or rainfall can overload drainage systems at rates faster than they can adjust, leading to water pressure spikes and ice acceleration. If the magnitude or frequency of these transient ice accelerations increase substantially as synoptic weather patterns change over the next century, there could be a significant cumulative impact on seasonal mean ice velocities. However, this issue has not been addressed in the literature and represents a major source of uncertainty. In this study, we investigate the role of synoptic weather variability in GrIS dynamics, with the ultimate goal of evaluating the relationships between extreme weather events and ice sheet flow in different seasons and regions of the GrIS. As a first step, we apply the machine learning technique of self-organizing maps to atmospheric reanalysis data to categorize the predominant synoptic weather systems over the GrIS domain, evaluating atmospheric moisture transport and rainfall to assess the impacts of each weather system on GrIS surface hydrology. The preliminary results presented here will be used in conjunction with ice velocity satellite measurements in future work, to identify any correlations between seasonal mean GrIS velocities and the frequency or intensity of storms during the season.

Forcing, properties, structure, and antecedent synoptic climatology of the Snake River Plain Convergence Zone of eastern Idaho: Analyses of observations and numerical simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andretta, Thomas A.

The Snake River Plain Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is a convergent shear zone generated by synoptic-scale post cold-frontal winds in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) interacting with the complex topography of eastern Idaho. The SPCZ produces clouds and occasional precipitation over time scales of 6--12 hours in a significant area of mesoscale dimensions (10--50 x 10 3 km2). This meso-beta-scale feature also contributes to the precipitation climatology in a semi-arid plain. The SPCZ is climatologically linked to the passage of synoptic-scale cold fronts and typically occurs in the fall and winter months with the highest frequencies in October, November, and January. The Snake River Plain of eastern Idaho is covered by a dense surface mesonetwork of towers with sensible weather measurements, single Doppler weather radar, regional soundings, and operational model sources. The ability of numerical weather prediction models to simulate the SPCZ depends on several factors: the accuracy of the large scale flow upstream of the zone, terrain resolution, grid scale, boundary layer parameterizations of stability, cumulus parameterizations, and microphysics schemes. This dissertation explores several of these issues with the aforementioned observations and with the Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) model simulations of selected SPCZ events. This dissertation first explains the conceptual models of the flow patterns related to the genesis of the SPCZ in light of other well-documented topographically-generated zones. The study then explores the links between the theoretical models and observations of the SPCZ in several episodes. With this foundation, the dissertation then tests several hypotheses relating to the horizontal and vertical zone structure, topographic sensitivity on the zone structure, and boundary layer evolution of the zone through the use of high resolution nested grid numerical simulations. The SPCZ consists of windward and leeward flow regimes in Idaho which form under low Froude number (stable blocked flow) in a post cold-frontal environment. The SPCZ is a weak baroclinic feature. The formation of the zone is independent of the vertical wind shear in the middle to upper troposphere. With a grid scale of 4 km, the WRF-ARW model adequately reproduces the post cold-frontal environment, windward and leeward convergence zones, relative vertical vorticity belts, and precipitation bands in several SPCZ cases. The vertical structure of the SPCZ reveals upright reflectivity towers with circulations that tilt slightly with height into the colder air aloft. Topographic sensitivity analyses of the SPCZ indicate that the terrain-driven circulations and resulting snow bands are more defined at the finer terrain scales. The ambient horizontal wind shear in the tributary valleys of the Central Mountains creates potential vorticity (PV) banners. The PV banner maintenance and strength are directly tied to the terrain resolution. An environment of convective instability sometimes occurs as a layer of air is lifted along the gentle elevation rise of the eastern Magic Valley and lower plain. An environment of inertial instability forms within the anticyclonic (negative) vorticity belts in the upper plain. Potential symmetric instability (PSI) may be released in a moist environment near the vorticity banners. The planetary boundary layer perturbed by the SPCZ inside the Snake River Plain is characterized by a deeper mixed layer with stronger vertical motions relative to a PBL in a sheltered valley outside the plain. Finally, a 10-year antecedent synoptic climatology of 78 SPCZ events reveals two pattern types: Type N (wet and warm) and Type S (dry and cold). The 40° N parallel divides these two synoptic patterns.

High Altitude Bird Migration at Temperate Latitudes: A Synoptic Perspective on Wind Assistance

PubMed Central

Dokter, Adriaan M.; Shamoun-Baranes, Judy; Kemp, Michael U.; Tijm, Sander; Holleman, Iwan

2013-01-01

At temperate latitudes the synoptic patterns of bird migration are strongly structured by the presence of cyclones and anticyclones, both in the horizontal and altitudinal dimensions. In certain synoptic conditions, birds may efficiently cross regions with opposing surface wind by choosing a higher flight altitude with more favourable wind. We observed migratory passerines at mid-latitudes that selected high altitude wind optima on particular nights, leading to the formation of structured migration layers at varying altitude up to 3 km. Using long-term vertical profiling of bird migration by C-band Doppler radar in the Netherlands, we find that such migration layers occur nearly exclusively during spring migration in the presence of a high-pressure system. A conceptual analytic framework providing insight into the synoptic patterns of wind assistance for migrants that includes the altitudinal dimension has so far been lacking. We present a simple model for a baroclinic atmosphere that relates vertical profiles of wind assistance to the pressure and temperature patterns occurring at temperate latitudes. We show how the magnitude and direction of the large scale horizontal temperature gradient affects the relative gain in wind assistance that migrants obtain through ascending. Temperature gradients typical for northerly high-pressure systems in spring are shown to cause high altitude wind optima in the easterly sectors of anticyclones, thereby explaining the frequent observations of high altitude migration in these synoptic conditions. Given the recurring synoptic arrangements of pressure systems across temperate continents, the opportunities for exploiting high altitude wind will differ between flyways, for example between easterly and westerly oceanic coasts. PMID:23300969

High altitude bird migration at temperate latitudes: a synoptic perspective on wind assistance.

PubMed

Dokter, Adriaan M; Shamoun-Baranes, Judy; Kemp, Michael U; Tijm, Sander; Holleman, Iwan

2013-01-01

At temperate latitudes the synoptic patterns of bird migration are strongly structured by the presence of cyclones and anticyclones, both in the horizontal and altitudinal dimensions. In certain synoptic conditions, birds may efficiently cross regions with opposing surface wind by choosing a higher flight altitude with more favourable wind. We observed migratory passerines at mid-latitudes that selected high altitude wind optima on particular nights, leading to the formation of structured migration layers at varying altitude up to 3 km. Using long-term vertical profiling of bird migration by C-band Doppler radar in the Netherlands, we find that such migration layers occur nearly exclusively during spring migration in the presence of a high-pressure system. A conceptual analytic framework providing insight into the synoptic patterns of wind assistance for migrants that includes the altitudinal dimension has so far been lacking. We present a simple model for a baroclinic atmosphere that relates vertical profiles of wind assistance to the pressure and temperature patterns occurring at temperate latitudes. We show how the magnitude and direction of the large scale horizontal temperature gradient affects the relative gain in wind assistance that migrants obtain through ascending. Temperature gradients typical for northerly high-pressure systems in spring are shown to cause high altitude wind optima in the easterly sectors of anticyclones, thereby explaining the frequent observations of high altitude migration in these synoptic conditions. Given the recurring synoptic arrangements of pressure systems across temperate continents, the opportunities for exploiting high altitude wind will differ between flyways, for example between easterly and westerly oceanic coasts.

Application of LANDSAT to the surveillance and control of lake eutrophication in the Great Lakes Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rogers, R. H. (Principal Investigator)

1975-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Preliminary results in Saginaw Bay show that processed LANDSAT data provides a synoptic view of turbidity and circulation patterns that no degree of ground monitoring can provide. Processed imagery was produced to show nine discrete categories of turbidity, as indicated by nine Secchi depths between 0.3 and 3.3 meters. Analysis of lakes near Madison, Wisconsin show that inland lake water can be categorized by LANDSAT as clear, tannin, algal, and red clay. LANDSAT's capability to inventory watershed land use was throughly demonstrated in the Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana regional planning area. Computer tabulations providing area covered by each of 16 land use categories were rapidly and economically produced for each of the 225 watersheds and nine counties.

Respective roles of direct GHG radiative forcing and induced Arctic sea ice loss on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oudar, Thomas; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Chauvin, Fabrice; Cattiaux, Julien; Terray, Laurent; Cassou, Christophe

2017-12-01

The large-scale and synoptic-scale Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation responses to projected late twenty-first century Arctic sea ice decline induced by increasing Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) concentrations are investigated using the CNRM-CM5 coupled model. An original protocol, based on a flux correction technique, allows isolating the respective roles of GHG direct radiative effect and induced Arctic sea ice loss under RCP8.5 scenario. In winter, the surface atmospheric response clearly exhibits opposing effects between GHGs increase and Arctic sea ice loss, leading to no significant pattern in the total response (particularly in the North Atlantic region). An analysis based on Eady growth rate shows that Arctic sea ice loss drives the weakening in the low-level meridional temperature gradient, causing a general decrease of the baroclinicity in the mid and high latitudes, whereas the direct impact of GHGs increase is more located in the mid-to-high troposphere. Changes in the flow waviness, evaluated from sinuosity and blocking frequency metrics, are found to be small relative to inter-annual variability.

Reconstruction of pre-instrumental storm track trajectories across the U.S. Pacific Northwest using circulation-based field sampling of Pinus Ponderosa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wise, E.; Dannenberg, M. P.

2015-12-01

The trajectory of incoming storms from the Pacific Ocean is a key influence on drought and flood regimes in western North America. Flow is typically from the west in a zonal pattern, but decadal shifts between zonal and meridional flow have been identified as key features in hydroclimatic variability over the instrumental period. In Washington and most of the Pacific Northwest, there tend to be lower-latitude storm systems that result in decreased precipitation in El Niño years. However, the Columbia Basin in central Washington behaves in opposition to the surrounding region and typically has average to above-average precipitation in El Niño years due to changing storm-track trajectories and a decreasing rain shadow effect on the leeward side of the Cascades. This direct connection between storm-track position and precipitation patterns in Washington provided an exceptional opportunity for circulation-based field sampling and chronology development. New Pinus ponderosa (Ponderosa pine) tree-ring chronologies were developed from eight sites around the Columbia Basin in Washington and used to examine year-to-year changes in moisture regimes. Results show that these sites are representative of the two distinct climate response areas. The divergence points between these two site responses allowed us to reconstruct changing precipitation patterns since the late-17th century, and to link these patterns to previously reconstructed atmospheric pressure and El Niño indices. This study highlights the potential for using synoptic climatology to inform field-based proxy collection.

Empirical and modeled synoptic cloud climatology of the Arctic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barry, R. G.; Newell, J. P.; Schweiger, A.; Crane, R. G.

1986-01-01

A set of cloud cover data were developed for the Arctic during the climatically important spring/early summer transition months. Parallel with the determination of mean monthly cloud conditions, data for different synoptic pressure patterns were also composited as a means of evaluating the role of synoptic variability on Arctic cloud regimes. In order to carry out this analysis, a synoptic classification scheme was developed for the Arctic using an objective typing procedure. A second major objective was to analyze model output of pressure fields and cloud parameters from a control run of the Goddard Institue for Space Studies climate model for the same area and to intercompare the synoptic climatatology of the model with that based on the observational data.

Revisiting the Observed Correlation Between Weekly Averaged Indian Monsoon Precipitation and Arabian Sea Aerosol Optical Depth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, D.; Miller, R. L.

2017-12-01

Dust influences the Indian summer monsoon on seasonal timescales by perturbing atmospheric radiation. On weekly time scales, aerosol optical depth retrieved by satellite over the Arabian Sea is correlated with Indian monsoon precipitation. This has been interpreted to show the effect of dust radiative heating on Indian rainfall on synoptic (few-day) time scales. However, this correlation is reproduced by Earth System Model simulations, where dust is present but its radiative effect is omitted. Analysis of daily variability suggests that the correlation results from the effect of precipitation on dust through the associated cyclonic circulation. Boundary layer winds that deliver moisture to India are responsible for dust outbreaks in source regions far upwind, including the Arabian Peninsula. This suggests that synoptic variations in monsoon precipitation over India enhance dust emission and transport to the Arabian Sea. The effect of dust radiative heating upon synoptic monsoon variations remains to be determined.

Revisiting the observed correlation between weekly averaged Indian monsoon precipitation and Arabian Sea aerosol optical depth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Disha; Miller, Ron L.

2017-10-01

Dust influences the Indian summer monsoon on seasonal time scales by perturbing atmospheric radiation. On weekly time scales, aerosol optical depth retrieved by satellite over the Arabian Sea is correlated with Indian monsoon precipitation. This has been interpreted to show the effect of dust radiative heating on Indian rainfall on synoptic (few-day) time scales. However, this correlation is reproduced by Earth System Model simulations, where dust is present but its radiative effect is omitted. Analysis of daily variability suggests that the correlation results from the effect of precipitation on dust through the associated cyclonic circulation. Boundary layer winds that deliver moisture to India are responsible for dust outbreaks in source regions far upwind, including the Arabian Peninsula. This suggests that synoptic variations in monsoon precipitation over India enhance dust emission and transport to the Arabian Sea. The effect of dust radiative heating upon synoptic monsoon variations remains to be determined.

The role of planetary waves in the tropospheric jet response to stratospheric cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Karen L.; Scott, Richard K.

2016-03-01

An idealized general circulation model is used to assess the importance of planetary-scale waves in determining the position of the tropospheric jet, specifically its tendency to shift poleward as winter stratospheric cooling is increased. Full model integrations are compared against integrations in which planetary waves are truncated in the zonal direction, and only synoptic-scale waves are retained. Two series of truncated integrations are considered, using (i) a modified radiative equilibrium temperature or (ii) a nudged-bias correction technique. Both produce tropospheric climatologies that are similar to the full model when stratospheric cooling is weak. When stratospheric cooling is increased, the results indicate that the interaction between planetary- and synoptic-scale waves plays an important role in determining the structure of the tropospheric mean flow and rule out the possibility that the jet shift occurs purely as a response to changes in the planetary- or synoptic-scale wave fields alone.

Can Arctic sea-ice melt be explained by atmospheric meridional transports? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tjernstrom, M. K.; Graversen, R. G.

2010-12-01

The Arctic summer sea ice is melting away at an alarming rate, and it is now expected that an principally sea-ice free Arctic summer will occur much earlier than projected by the IPCC AR4 models. At the same time Arctic near-surface temperatures are rising at a rate much faster than the global average. The processes responsible for these changes are debated and many claim that local feedbacks, such as the surface albedo feedback, are the main culprits while other argue that remote effects, such as atmospheric circulation changes on synoptic and hemispheric scales, are the most important. We will explore the effects of the meridional transport by synoptic and larger scale atmospheric circulation on recent changes, using reanalysis data. It will be illustarated how this transport can contribute significant amounts of sensible heat, but also of atmospheric moisture such that local cloud feedbacks as well as the direct greenhouse effect of the water vapor contributes significantly to the surface energy balance over the Arctic polar cap.

Influence of synoptic weather patterns on solar irradiance variability in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parding, Kajsa; Hinkelman, Laura; Liepert, Beate; Ackerman, Thomas; Dagestad, Knut-Frode; Asle Olseth, Jan

2014-05-01

Solar radiation is important for many aspects of existence on Earth, including the biosphere, the hydrological cycle, and creatures living on the planet. Previous studies have reported decadal trends in observational records of surface shortwave (SW) irradiance around the world, too strong to be caused by varying solar output. These observed decadal trends have been dubbed "solar dimming and brightening" and are believed to be related to changes in atmospheric aerosols and cloud cover. Because the observed solar variability coincides with qualitative air pollution histories, the dimming and brightening have become almost synonymous with shortwave attenuation by anthropogenic aerosols. However, there are indications that atmospheric circulation patterns have influenced the dimming and brightening in some regions, e.g., Alaska and Scandinavia. In this work, we focus on the role of atmospheric circulation patterns in modifying shortwave irradiance. An examination of European SW irradiance data from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) shows that while there are periods of predominantly decreasing (~1970-1985) and increasing (~1985-2007) SW irradiance, the changes are not spatially uniform within Europe and in a majority of locations not statistically significant. To establish a connection between weather patterns and sunshine, regression models of SW irradiance are fitted using a daily classification of European weather called Grosswetterlagen (GWL). The GWL reconstructions of shortwave irradiance represent the part of the solar variability that is related to large scale weather patterns, which should be effectively separated from the influence of varying anthropogenic aerosol emissions. The correlation (R) between observed and reconstruced SW irradiance is between 0.31 and 0.75, depending on station and season, all statistically significant (p<0.05, estimated with a bootstrap test). In central and eastern parts of Europe, the observed decadal SW variability is poorly represented by the GWL models, but in northern Europe, the GWL model recreates observed decadal solar variability well. This finding suggests that natural and/or anthropogenic variations in circulation patterns have influenced solar dimming and brightening to a higher degree in the north than in the rest of Europe.

Distinct wind convergence patterns in the Mexico City basin due to the interaction of the gap winds with the synoptic flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Foy, B.; Clappier, A.; Molina, L. T.; Molina, M. J.

2006-04-01

Mexico City lies in a high altitude basin where air quality and pollutant fate is strongly influenced by local winds. The combination of high terrain with weak synoptic forcing leads to weak and variable winds with complex circulation patterns. A gap wind entering the basin in the afternoon leads to very different wind convergence lines over the city depending on the meteorological conditions. Surface and upper-air meteorological observations are analysed during the MCMA-2003 field campaign to establish the meteorological conditions and obtain an index of the strength and timing of the gap wind. A mesoscale meteorological model (MM5) is used in combination with high-resolution satellite data for the land surface parameters and soil moisture maps derived from diurnal ground temperature range. A simple method to map the lines of wind convergence both in the basin and on the regional scale is used to show the different convergence patterns according to episode types. The gap wind is found to occur on most days of the campaign and is the result of a temperature gradient across the southern basin rim which is very similar from day to day. Momentum mixing from winds aloft into the surface layer is much more variable and can determine both the strength of the flow and the pattern of the convergence zones. Northerly flows aloft lead to a weak jet with an east-west convergence line that progresses northwards in the late afternoon and early evening. Westerlies aloft lead to both stronger gap flows due to channelling and winds over the southern and western basin rim. This results in a north-south convergence line through the middle of the basin starting in the early afternoon. Improved understanding of basin meteorology will lead to better air quality forecasts for the city and better understanding of the chemical regimes in the urban atmosphere.

Synoptic volumetric variations and flushing of the Tampa Bay estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, M.; Meyers, S. D.; Luther, M. E.

2014-03-01

Two types of analyses are used to investigate the synoptic wind-driven flushing of Tampa Bay in response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle from 1950 to 2007. Hourly sea level elevations from the St. Petersburg tide gauge, and wind speed and direction from three different sites around Tampa Bay are used for the study. The zonal (u) and meridional (v) wind components are rotated clockwise by 40° to obtain axial and co-axial components according to the layout of the bay. First, we use the subtidal observed water level as a proxy for mean tidal height to estimate the rate of volumetric bay outflow. Second, we use wavelet analysis to bandpass sea level and wind data in the time-frequency domain to isolate the synoptic sea level and surface wind variance. For both analyses the long-term monthly climatology is removed and we focus on the volumetric and wavelet variance anomalies. The overall correlation between the Oceanic Niño Index and volumetric analysis is small due to the seasonal dependence of the ENSO response. The mean monthly climatology between the synoptic wavelet variance of elevation and axial winds are in close agreement. During the winter, El Niño (La Niña) increases (decreases) the synoptic variability, but decreases (increases) it during the summer. The difference in winter El Niño/La Niña wavelet variances is about 20 % of the climatological value, meaning that ENSO can swing the synoptic flushing of the bay by 0.22 bay volumes per month. These changes in circulation associated with synoptic variability have the potential to impact mixing and transport within the bay.

Linking North American Summer Ozone Pollution Episodes to Subseasonal Atmospheric Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, E. C.; Watt-Meyer, O.; Kushner, P. J.; Jones, D. B. A.

2017-12-01

Ozone concentrations in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) are positively correlated with surface air temperature due to shared influences including incident solar radiation and PBL stagnancy, as well as the temperature-sensitive emission of ozone precursor compounds. While previous studies have linked heat waves in North America to modes of subseasonal atmospheric variability, such analyses have not been applied to summertime ozone pollution episodes. This study investigates a possible link between subseasonal atmospheric variability in reanalysis data and summertime ozone pollution episodes identified in almost thirty years of in-situ measurements from the Air Quality System (AQS) network in the United States. AQS stations are grouped into regions likely to experience simultaneous extreme ozone concentrations using statistical clustering methods. Composite meteorological patterns are calculated for ozone episodes in each of these regions. The same analysis is applied to heat waves identified in AQS temperature records for comparison. Local meteorological features during typical ozone episodes include extreme temperatures and reduced cloud cover related to anomalous synoptic-scale anticyclonic circulation aloft. These anticyclonic anomalies are typically embedded in wave trains extending from the North Pacific to North Atlantic. Spectral analysis of these wave trains reveals that low-frequency standing waves play a prominent role. These long-lived circulation patterns may provide a means to increase air quality prediction lead-times and to estimate the frequency of ozone pollution episodes under climate change.

Significant Findings: Seasonal Distributions of Global Ocean Chlorophyll and Nutrients With a Coupled Ocean General Circulation, Biogeochemical, and Radiative Model. 2; Comparisons With Satellite and In Situ Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.; Busalacchi, Antonio (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

A coupled ocean general circulation, biogeochemical, and radiative model was constructed to evaluate and understand the nature of seasonal variability of chlorophyll and nutrients in the global oceans. Biogeochemical processes in the model were determined from the influences of circulation and turbulence dynamics, irradiance availability, and the interactions among three functional phytoplankton groups (diatoms, chlorophytes, and picoplankton) and three nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, and silicate). Basin scale (>1000 km) model chlorophyll seasonal distributions were statistically positively correlated with CZCS chlorophyll in 10 of 12 major oceanographic regions, and with SeaWiFS in all 12. Notable disparities in magnitudes occurred, however, in the tropical Pacific, the spring/summer bloom in the Antarctic, autumn in the northern high latitudes, and during the southwest monsoon in the North Indian Ocean. Synoptic scale (100-1000 km) comparisons of satellite and in situ data exhibited broad agreement, although occasional departures were apparent. Model nitrate distributions agreed with in situ data, including seasonal dynamics, except for the equatorial Atlantic. The overall agreement of the model with satellite and in situ data sources indicated that the model dynamics offer a reasonably realistic simulation of phytoplankton and nutrient dynamics on basin and synoptic scales.

Re-examination of the I-5 dust storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, Michael L.; Vellore, Ramesh K.; Lewis, John M.; Underwood, S. Jeffrey; Pauley, Patricia M.; Martin, Jonathan E.; Krishnan, R.

2013-01-01

The infamous dust storm over the thanksgiving holiday of 1991 that led to loss of life from numerous automobile accidents on Interstate 5 (I-5) has been re-examined. Pauley et al. (1996) conducted an earlier investigation of this dust storm following the tenets of Danielsen's paradigm—a paradigm that links the tropopause fold phenomenon and a balanced thermally indirect circulation about the upper level jet stream. However, a cursory examination of mesoscale structures in the storm from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) indicated evidence of a low-level unbalanced thermally direct circulation that demanded further investigation using a high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation. Principal results from the present study follow: (1) Although the model simulation showed evidence of a weak indirect circulation in the upper troposphere in support of the Danielsen's paradigm, the dynamic control of the storm stemmed from the lower tropospheric mesoscale response to geostrophic imbalance. (2) A lower tropospheric direct circulation led to mass/temperature adjustments that were confirmed by upper air observations at locations in proximity to the accident site, and (3) boundary layer deepening and destabilization due to these mesoscale processes pinpointed the timing and location of the dust storm. Although the present study does not underestimate the value of analyses that focus on the larger/synoptic scales of motion, it does bring to light the value of investigation that makes use of the mesoscale resources in order to clarify synoptic-mesoscale interactions.

West Florida shelf circulation and temperature budget for the 1998 fall transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Ruoying; Weisberg, Robert H.

2003-05-01

Mid-latitude continental shelves undergo a fall transition as the net heat flux changes from warming to cooling. Using in situ data and a numerical model we investigate the circulation on the west Florida shelf (WFS) for the fall transition of 1998. The model is a regional adaptation of the primitive equation, Princeton Ocean Model forced by NCEP reanalysis wind, air pressure, and heat flux fields, plus river inflows. After comparison with observations the model is used to draw inferences on the seasonal and synoptic scale features of the shelf circulation. By running twin experiments, one without and the other with an idealized Loop Current (LC), we explore the relative importance of local versus deep-ocean forcing. We find that local forcing largely controls the inner-shelf circulation, including changes from the Florida Panhandle in the north to regions farther south. The effects of the LC in fall 1998 are to reinforce the mid-shelf currents and to increase the across-shelf transports in the bottom Ekman layer, thereby accentuating the shoreward transport of cold, nutrient rich water of deep-ocean origin. A three-dimensional analysis of the temperature budget reveals that surface heat flux largely controls both the seasonal and synoptic scale temperature variations. Surface cooling leads to convective mixing that rapidly alters temperature gradients. One interesting consequence is that upwelling can result in near-shore warming as warmer offshore waters are advected landward. The temperature balances on the shelf are complex and fully three-dimensional.

Assessment of the relationship between satellite AOD and ground PM₁₀ measurement data considering synoptic meteorological patterns and Lidar data.

PubMed

Zeeshan, Muhammad; Kim Oanh, N T

2014-03-01

Correlation between satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) and ground monitoring particulate matter (PM) depends on the meteorology that determines PM optical properties, its dispersion, accumulation and vertical distribution. This study presents a novel approach to analyze PM-AOD relationship considering the totality of meteorological factors expressed as synoptic patterns. Meteorological observations at 07:00 Bangkok time from 9 regional meteorological stations, in dry seasons (November-April) of 11 years (2000-2010), were used to categorize governing meteorology over Central Thailand into four categories representing the typical observed synoptic patterns. The MANOVA analysis showed that these patterns were statistically different. PM10 recorded at 22 air quality stations in Bangkok Metropolitan Region were examined which showed the highest levels for the days belonging to pattern 1, followed by pattern 4, both with presence of a high pressure ridge, while the minimum for pattern 2 when thermal lows dominated. Lidar aerosol backscatter profiles recorded at Pimai station were used as indicator of PM vertical distribution that showed similarity within each pattern. R(2) between MODIS and Sun photometer AODs at Pimai was above 0.8. Correlation coefficients (R) between MODIS AOD and corresponding 1h PM10 for clear sky days (cloudiness ≤ 3/10) were examined for each pattern in comparison with lump case. Significant improvements were observed for pattern 1, average R across 22 stations was 0.46 for Terra and 0.38 for Aqua AOD compared to lump case with R of 0.34 and 0.31, respectively. Comparable improvement was also observed for pattern 4. For pattern 2, R values were significantly reduced which may be caused by the deeper mixing layers and varying vertical profiles with overall low values of Lidar backscatter coefficients. Improved R values in pattern 1 and 4, which had highest PM10 in BMR, suggested a better potential of using MODIS AOD for PM10 monitoring with synoptic pattern classification. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nearshore circulation on a sea breeze dominated beach during intense wind events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres-Freyermuth, Alec; Puleo, Jack A.; DiCosmo, Nick; Allende-Arandía, Ma. Eugenia; Chardón-Maldonado, Patricia; López, José; Figueroa-Espinoza, Bernardo; de Alegria-Arzaburu, Amaia Ruiz; Figlus, Jens; Roberts Briggs, Tiffany M.; de la Roza, Jacobo; Candela, Julio

2017-12-01

A field experiment was conducted on the northern Yucatan coast from April 1 to April 12, 2014 to investigate the role of intense wind events on coastal circulation from the inner shelf to the swash zone. The study area is characterized by a micro-tidal environment, low-energy wave conditions, and a wide and shallow continental shelf. Furthermore, easterly trade winds, local breezes, and synoptic-scale events, associated with the passage of cold-fronts known as Nortes, are ubiquitous in this region. Currents were measured concurrently at different cross-shore locations during both local and synoptic-scale intense wind events to investigate the influence of different forcing mechanisms (i.e., large-scale currents, winds, tides, and waves) on the nearshore circulation. Field observations revealed that nearshore circulation across the shelf is predominantly alongshore-directed (westward) during intense winds. However, the mechanisms responsible for driving instantaneous spatial and temporal current variability depend on the weather conditions and the across-shelf location. During local strong sea breeze events (W > 10 m s-1 from the NE) occurring during spring tide, westward circulation is controlled by the tides, wind, and waves at the inner-shelf, shallow waters, and inside the surf/swash zone, respectively. The nearshore circulation is relaxed during intense land breeze events (W ≈ 9 m s-1 from the SE) associated with the low atmospheric pressure system that preceded a Norte event. During the Norte event (Wmax≈ 15 m s-1 from the NNW), westward circulation dominated outside the surf zone and was correlated to the Yucatan Current, whereas wave breaking forces eastward currents inside the surf/swash zone. The latter finding implies the existence of large alongshore velocity shear at the offshore edge of the surf zone during the Norte event, which enhances mixing between the surf zone and the inner shelf. These findings suggest that both sea breezes and Nortes play an important role in sediment and pollutant transport along/across the nearshore of the Yucatan shelf.

Assessment of WRF Simulated Precipitation by Meteorological Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagenhoff, Brooke Anne

This study evaluated warm-season precipitation events in a multi-year (2007-2014) database of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations over the Northern Plains and Southern Great Plains. These WRF simulations were run daily in support of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) by the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) for operational forecasts. Evaluating model skill by synoptic pattern allows for an understanding of how model performance varies with particular atmospheric states and will aid forecasters with pattern recognition. To conduct this analysis, a competitive neural network known as the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) was used. SOMs allow the user to represent atmospheric patterns in an array of nodes that represent a continuum of synoptic categorizations. North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data during the warm season (April-September) was used to perform the synoptic typing over the study domains. Simulated precipitation was evaluated against observations provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Stage IV precipitation analysis.

Elucidating the relationship between aerosol concentration and summertime boundary layer structure in central China.

PubMed

Liu, Lin; Guo, Jianping; Miao, Yucong; Liu, Lin; Li, Jian; Chen, Dandan; He, Jing; Cui, Chunguang

2018-06-11

Wuhan, a megacity in central China, suffers from frequent aerosol pollution and is accompanied by meteorological factors at both synoptic and local scales. Partly due to the lack of appropriate observations of planetary boundary layer (PBL), the associations between synoptic conditions, PBL, and pollution there are not yet fully understood. Thus, systematic analyses were conducted using the fine-resolution soundings, surface meteorological measurements, and aerosol observations in Wuhan during summer for the period 2013-2016, in combination with T-mode principal component analysis and simulations of backward trajectory. The results showed that the variations of boundary layer height (BLH) not only modulated the diurnal variation of PM 2.5 concentration in Wuhan, but also the daily pollution level. Five different synoptic patterns during summer in Wuhan were identified from reanalysis geopotential height fields. Among these synoptic patterns, two types characterized by northeasterly prevailing winds, were found to be associated with heavy pollution in Wuhan. Driven by the northeasterly winds, the polluted air mass from the heavily polluted regions could be easily transported to Wuhan, such as North China Plain and Yangtze River Delta. Such regional transports of pollutants must be partly responsible for the aerosol pollution in Wuhan. In addition, these two synoptic patterns were also featured by the relatively high cloud cover and low boundary layer height in Wuhan, which would favor the occurrence of pollution there. Overall, this study has important implications for understanding the important roles of meteorological factors in modulating aerosol pollution in central China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Projections of Flood Risk using Credible Climate Signals in the Ohio River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlef, K.; Robertson, A. W.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

Estimating future hydrologic flood risk under non-stationary climate is a key challenge to the design of long-term water resources infrastructure and flood management strategies. In this work, we demonstrate how projections of large-scale climate patterns can be credibly used to create projections of long-term flood risk. Our study area is the northwest region of the Ohio River Basin in the United States Midwest. In the region, three major teleconnections have been previously demonstrated to affect synoptic patterns that influence extreme precipitation and streamflow: the El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Pacific North American pattern, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These teleconnections are strongest during the winter season (January-March), which also experiences the greatest number of peak flow events. For this reason, flood events are defined as the maximum daily streamflow to occur in the winter season. For each gage in the region, the location parameter of a log Pearson type 3 distribution is conditioned on the first principal component of the three teleconnections to create a statistical model of flood events. Future projections of flood risk are created by forcing the statistical model with projections of the teleconnections from general circulation models selected for skill. We compare the results of our method to the results of two other methods: the traditional model chain (i.e., general circulation model projections to downscaling method to hydrologic model to flood frequency analysis) and that of using the historic trend. We also discuss the potential for developing credible projections of flood events for the continental United States.

Synoptic Conditions and Moisture Sources Actuating Extreme Precipitation in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohlinger, Patrik; Sorteberg, Asgeir; Sodemann, Harald

2017-12-01

Despite the vast literature on heavy-precipitation events in South Asia, synoptic conditions and moisture sources related to extreme precipitation in Nepal have not been addressed systematically. We investigate two types of synoptic conditions—low-pressure systems and midlevel troughs—and moisture sources related to extreme precipitation events. To account for the high spatial variability in rainfall, we cluster station-based daily precipitation measurements resulting in three well-separated geographic regions: west, central, and east Nepal. For each region, composite analysis of extreme events shows that atmospheric circulation is directed against the Himalayas during an extreme event. The direction of the flow is regulated by midtropospheric troughs and low-pressure systems traveling toward the respective region. Extreme precipitation events feature anomalous high abundance of total column moisture. Quantitative Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic reveals that the largest direct contribution stems from land (approximately 75%), where, in particular, over the Indo-Gangetic Plain moisture uptake was increased. Precipitation events occurring in this region before the extreme event likely provided additional moisture.

Monitoring the Algerian Basin through glider observations, satellite altimetry and numerical simulations along a SARAL/AltiKa track

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aulicino, G.; Cotroneo, Y.; Ruiz, S.; Sánchez Román, A.; Pascual, A.; Fusco, G.; Tintoré, J.; Budillon, G.

2018-03-01

The Algerian Basin is a key component of the general circulation in the Western Mediterranean Sea. The presence of both fresh Atlantic water and more saline Mediterranean water gives the basin an intense inflow/outflow regime and complex circulation patterns. Energetic mesoscale structures that evolve from meanders of the Algerian Current into isolated cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies dominate the area, with marked repercussions on biological activity. Despite its remarkable importance, this region and its variability are still poorly known and basin-wide knowledge of its meso- and submesoscale features is still incomplete. Studying such complex processes requires a synergistic approach that involves integrated observing systems. In recent years, several studies have demonstrated the advantages of combined use of autonomous underwater vehicles, such as gliders, with a new generation of satellite altimetry. In this context, we present results of an observational program conducted in the Algerian Basin during fall 2014 and 2015 that aimed to advance our knowledge of its main features. The study was carried out through analysis of high resolution glider observations, collected along the Algerian BAsin Circulation Unmanned Survey (ABACUS) chokepoint, in synergy with co-located SARAL/AltiKa altimetric products and CMEMS numerical simulations. Results show that glider-derived dynamic height and SARAL/AltiKa absolute dynamic topography have similar patterns, with RMS of the differences ranging between 1.11 and 2.90 cm. Even though larger discrepancies are observed near the Balearic and Algerian coasts, correlation coefficients between glider and satellite observations seem mostly to be affected by reduced synopticity between the measurements. Glider observations acquired during the four surveys reveal the presence of several water masses of Atlantic and Mediterranean origin (i.e., AW and LIW at different modification levels) with marked seasonal variability.

Global-Local Interactions Modulate Tropical Moisture Exports to the Ohio River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doss-Gollin, J.; Farnham, D. J.; Lall, U.

2016-12-01

Regional-scale extreme rainfall and flooding are temporally and spatially associated with the occurrence of tropical moisture exports (TMEs) in the Ohio River Basin (ORB). TMEs are related to but not synonymous with atmospheric rivers, which refer to specific filiamentary organizational processes. TMEs to the ORB may be driven by strong, persistent ridging over the Eastern United States and troughing over the Central United States, creating favorable conditions for southerly flow and moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. However, the strong inter-annual variation in TME activity over the ORB suggests dependence on global-scale features of the atmospheric circulation. We suggest that this synoptic dipole pattern may be viewed as the passage of one or more high-wavenumber, transient Rossby waves. We build a multi-level hierarchical Bayesian model in which the probability distribution of TME entering the ORB is a function of the phase and amplitude of the traveling waves. In turn, the joint distribution of the phase and amplitude of this wave is modulated by hemispheric-scale features of the atmospheric and oceanic circulation, and the amplitude and synchronization of quasi-stationary Rossby waves with wavenumber 1-4. Our approach bridges information about different features of the atmospheric circulation which inform the predictability of TME at multiple time scales and develops existing understanding of the atmospheric drivers of TMEs beyond existing composite and EOF studies.

Evaluation of the synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koch, S. E.; Skillman, W. C.; Kocin, P. J.; Wetzel, P. J.; Brill, K.; Keyser, D. A.; Mccumber, M. C.

1983-01-01

The overall performance characteristics of a limited area, hydrostatic, fine (52 km) mesh, primitive equation, numerical weather prediction model are determined in anticipation of satellite data assimilations with the model. The synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of version 2.0 of this model, the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS 2.0), were evaluated. The two part study is based on a sample of approximately thirty 12h and 24h forecasts of atmospheric flow patterns during spring and early summer. The synoptic scale evaluation results benchmark the performance of MASS 2.0 against that of an operational, synoptic scale weather prediction model, the Limited area Fine Mesh (LFM). The large sample allows for the calculation of statistically significant measures of forecast accuracy and the determination of systematic model errors. The synoptic scale benchmark is required before unsmoothed mesoscale forecast fields can be seriously considered.

Circulation types related to lightning activity over Catalonia and the Principality of Andorra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pineda, N.; Esteban, P.; Trapero, L.; Soler, X.; Beck, C.

In the present study, we use a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to characterize the surface 6-h circulation types related to substantial lightning activity over the Catalonia area (north-eastern Iberia) and the Principality of Andorra (eastern Pyrenees) from January 2003 to December 2007. The gridded data used for classification of the circulation types is the NCEP Final Analyses of the Global Tropospheric Analyses at 1° resolution over the region 35°N-48°N by 5°W-8°E. Lightning information was collected by the SAFIR lightning detection system operated by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC), which covers the region studied. We determined nine circulation types on the basis of the S-mode orthogonal rotated Principal Component Analysis. The “extreme scores” principle was used previous to the assignation of all cases, to obtain the number of final types and their centroids. The distinct differences identified in the resulting mean Sea Level Pressure (SLP) fields enabled us to group the types into three main patterns, taking into account their scale/dynamical origin. The first group of types shows the different distribution of the centres of action at synoptic scale associated with the occurrence of lightning. The second group is connected to mesoscale dynamics, mainly induced by the relief of the Pyrenees. The third group shows types with low gradient SLP patterns in which the lightning activity is a consequence of thermal dynamics (coastal and mountain breezes). Apart from reinforcing the consistency of the groups obtained, analysis of the resulting classification improves our understanding of the geographical distribution and genesis factors of thunderstorm activity in the study area, and provides complementary information for supporting weather forecasting. Thus, the catalogue obtained will provide advances in different climatological and meteorological applications, such as nowcasting products or detection of climate change trends.

Retrieved Latent Heating from TRMM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Smith, Eric A.; Houze Jr, Robert

2008-01-01

The global hydrological cycle is central to the Earth's climate system, with rainfall and the physics of precipitation formation acting as the key links in the cycle. Two-thirds of global rainfall occurs in the tropics with the associated latent heating (LH) accounting for three-fourths of the total heat energy available to the Earth's atmosphere. In addition, fresh water provided by tropical rainfall and its variability exerts a large impact upon the structure and motions of the upper ocean layer. In the last decade, it has been established that standard products of LH from satellite measurements, particularly TRMM measurements, would be a valuable resource for scientific research and applications. Such products would enable new insights and investigations concerning the complexities of convection system life cycles, the diabatic heating controls and feedbacks related to meso-synoptic circulations and their forecasting, the relationship of tropical patterns of LH to the global circulation and climate, and strategies for improving cloud parameterizations in environmental prediction models. The status of retrieved TRMM LH products, TRMM LH inter-comparison and validation project, current TRMM LH applications and critic issues/action items (based on previous five TRMM LH workshops) is presented in this article.

The effect of water temperature and synoptic winds on the development of surface flows over narrow, elongated water bodies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Segal, M.; Pielke, R. A.

1985-01-01

Simulations of the thermally induced breeze involved with a relatively narrow, elongated water body is presented in conjunction with evaluations of sensible heat fluxes in a stable marine atmospheric surface layer. The effect of the water surface temperature and of the large-scale synoptic winds on the development of surface flows over the water is examined. As implied by the sensible heat flux patterns, the simulation results reveal the following trends: (1) when the synoptic flow is absent or light, the induced surface breeze is not affected noticeably by a reduction of the water surface temperature; and (2) for stronger synoptic flow, the resultant surface flow may be significantly affected by the water surface temperature.

The Record Los Angeles Heat Event of September 2010: 1. Synoptic-Scale-Meso-β-Scale Analyses of Interactive Planetary Wave Breaking, Terrain- and Coastal-Induced Circulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, Michael L.; Tilley, Jeffrey S.; Hatchett, Benjamin J.; Smith, Craig M.; Walston, Joshua M.; Shourd, Kacie N.; Lewis, John M.

2017-10-01

On 27 September 2010 the Los Angeles Civic Center reached its all-time record maximum temperature of 45°C before 1330 local daylight time with several other regional stations observing all-time record breaking heat early in that afternoon. This record event is associated with a general circulation pattern predisposed to hemispheric wave breaking. Three days before the event, wave breaking organizes complex terrain- and coastal-induced processes that lead to isentropic surface folding into the Los Angeles Basin. The first wave break occurs over the western two thirds of North America leading to trough elongation across the southwestern U.S. Collocated with this trough is an isentropic potential vorticity filament that is the locus of a thermally indirect circulation central to warming and associated thickness increases and ridging westward across the Great Basin. In response to this circulation, two subsynoptic wave breaks are triggered along the Pacific coast. The isentropic potential vorticity filament is coupled to the breaking waves and the interaction produces a subsynoptic low-pressure center and a deep vortex aloft over the southeastern California desert. This coupling leads to advection of an elevated mixed layer over Point Conception the night before the record-breaking heat that creates a coastally trapped low-pressure area southwest of Los Angeles. The two low-pressure centers create a low-level pressure gradient and east-southeasterly jet directed offshore over the Los Angeles Basin by sunrise on 27 September. This allows the advection of low-level warm air from the inland terrain toward the coastally trapped disturbance and descending circulation resulting in record heating.

Local Helioseismology of Emerging Active Regions: A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosovichev, Alexander G.; Zhao, Junwei; Ilonidis, Stathis

2018-04-01

Local helioseismology provides a unique opportunity to investigate the subsurface structure and dynamics of active regions and their effect on the large-scale flows and global circulation of the Sun. We use measurements of plasma flows in the upper convection zone, provided by the Time-Distance Helioseismology Pipeline developed for analysis of solar oscillation data obtained by Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), to investigate the subsurface dynamics of emerging active region NOAA 11726. The active region emergence was detected in deep layers of the convection zone about 12 hours before the first bipolar magnetic structure appeared on the surface, and 2 days before the emergence of most of the magnetic flux. The speed of emergence determined by tracking the flow divergence with depth is about 1.4 km/s, very close to the emergence speed in the deep layers. As the emerging magnetic flux becomes concentrated in sunspots local converging flows are observed beneath the forming sunspots. These flows are most prominent in the depth range 1-3 Mm, and remain converging after the formation process is completed. On the larger scale converging flows around active region appear as a diversion of the zonal shearing flows towards the active region, accompanied by formation of a large-scale vortex structure. This process occurs when a substantial amount of the magnetic flux emerged on the surface, and the converging flow pattern remains stable during the following evolution of the active region. The Carrington synoptic flow maps show that the large-scale subsurface inflows are typical for active regions. In the deeper layers (10-13 Mm) the flows become diverging, and surprisingly strong beneath some active regions. In addition, the synoptic maps reveal a complex evolving pattern of large-scale flows on the scale much larger than supergranulation

North American Extreme Temperature Events and Related Large Scale Meteorological Patterns: A Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, William J., Jr.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.;

Mesoscale and Synoptic Summertime Circulations and Their Impact on Visibility in the Arabian Gulf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eleuterio, D. P.; Walker, A. L.

2005-12-01

Although frequently characterized as a region of relatively persistent northwesterly winds, often referred to as the 40-day shamal, several researchers have recognized significant temporal and spatial variability in the summer low level winds in the Arabian Gulf. In addition to the synoptically driven gradient between the subtropical high to the north and the monsoon trough across the Gulf of Oman and Northern Arabian Sea, there are complex interactions between the Saudi Arabian and Pakistani heat lows, land-sea breeze circulations, and coastal terrain influence due to the proximity of the Zagros Mountains. These interactions frequently result in several distinct wind regimes within the Arabian Gulf, to include weak thermally and dynamically forced southerlies in the southern Gulf, a diurnally varying region of convergence/ divergence across the central Gulf, and northwesterly shamal type flow in the northern Gulf. The relative orientation and strength of these wind regimes and the strength of the subsidence inversion at the top of the marine boundary layer greatly impact the aerosol loading over water and resulting visibility due to wind-blown sand, dust, and smoke. Several case studies are examined to explore the interaction between mesoscale and synoptic forcing and the resulting spatial and temporal variability in visibility and aerosol optical depth. Conditions range from two to three day periods of rapid and persistent regional clearing with freshening northwesterly winds, to persistent periods of moderate to poor visibility in marine haze under light winds, to large scale events that create a distinct wind and dust front, severely reducing visibility through much of Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, and extending well into the Arabian Gulf. These strong, widespread events may be correlated with synoptically forced conditions farther north. Alternatively, smaller scale regional plumes of mobilized dust are often created by mesoscale events which, in conjunction with oil smoke and industrial pollution, can rapidly reduce visibility in localized regions for periods of 1-2 days and are relatively difficult to forecast because of their mesoscale nature.

West Florida shelf circulation and temperature budget for the 1999 spring transition

USGS Publications Warehouse

He, Ruoying; Weisberg, Robert H.

2002-01-01

Mid-latitude continental shelves undergo a spring transition as the net surface heat flux changes from cooling to warming. Using in situ data and a numerical circulation model we investigate the circulation and temperature budget on the West Florida Continental Shelf (WFS) for the spring transition of 1999. The model is a regional adaptation of the primitive equation, Princeton Ocean Model forced by NCEP reanalysis wind and heat flux fields and by river inflows. Based on agreements between the modeled and observed fields we use the model to draw inferences on how the surface momentum and heat fluxes affect the seasonal and synoptic scale variability. We account for a strong southeastward current at mid-shelf by the baroclinic response to combined wind and buoyancy forcing, and we show how this local forcing leads to annually occurring cold and low salinity tongues. Through term-by-term analyses of the temperature budget we describe the WFS temperature evolution in spring. Heat flux largely controls the seasonal transition, whereas ocean circulation largely controls the synoptic scale variability. These two processes, however, are closely linked. Bottom topography and coastline geometry are important in generating regions of convergence and divergence. Rivers contribute to the local hydrography and are important ecologically. Along with upwelling, river inflows facilitate frontal aggregation of nutrients and the spring formation of a high concentration chlorophyll plume near the shelf break (the so-called ‘Green River’) coinciding with the cold, low salinity tongues. These features originate by local, shelf-wide forcing; the Loop Current is not an essential ingredient.

Principal sequence pattern analysis of episodes of excess mortality due to heat in the Barcelona metropolitan area.

PubMed

Peña, Juan Carlos; Aran, Montserrat; Raso, José Miguel; Pérez-Zanón, Nuria

2015-04-01

The aim of the study is to classify the synoptic sequences associated with excess mortality during the warm season in the Barcelona metropolitan area. To achieve this purpose, we undertook a principal sequence pattern analysis that incorporates different atmospheric levels, in an attempt at identifying the main features that account for dynamic and thermodynamic atmospheric processes. The sequence length was determined by the short-term displacement between temperature and mortality. To detect this lag, we applied the cross-correlation function to the residuals obtained from the modelling of the daily temperature and mortality series of summer. These residuals were estimated by means of an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. A 7-day sequence emerged as the basic temporal unit for evaluating the synoptic background that triggers the temperature related to excess mortality in the Barcelona metropolitan area. The principal sequence pattern analysis distinguished three main synoptic patterns: two dynamic configurations produced by southern fluxes related to an Atlantic low, which can be associated with heat waves recorded in southern Europe, and a third pattern identified by a stagnation situation associated with the persistence of a blocking anticyclone over Europe, related to heat waves recorded in northern and central western Europe.

Trends in winter circulation over the British Isles and central Europe in twenty-first century projections by 25 CMIP5 GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stryhal, Jan; Huth, Radan

2018-03-01

Winter midlatitude atmospheric circulation has been extensively studied for its tight link to surface weather, and automated circulation classifications have often been used to this end. Here, eight such classifications are applied to daily sea level pressure patterns simulated by an ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs twenty-first century projections for the British Isles and central Europe in order to robustly estimate future changes in frequency, persistence, and strength of synoptic-scale circulation there. All methods are able to identify present-day biases of models reported before, such as an overestimated occurrence of zonal flow and underestimation of anticyclonic conditions and easterly advection, although the strength of these biases varies among the methods. In future, models show that the zonal flow will become more frequent while the strength of the mean flow is not projected to change. Over the British Isles, the models that better simulate the latitude of zonal flow over the historical period indicate a slight equatorward shift of westerlies in their projections, while the poleward expansion of circulation—expected in future at global scale—is apparent in those models that have large errors. Over central Europe, some classifications indicate an increase in persistence and especially in frequency of anticyclonic types, which is, however, shown to be rather an artifact of some methods than a real feature. On the other hand, the easterly flow is robustly projected to become markedly weaker in central Europe, which we hypothesize might be an important factor contributing to the projected decrease of cold extremes there.

The Synoptic Climatology of Severe Thunderstorms in Manitoba.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ladochy, Stephen Eugene Gabriel

The thesis presents the climatologies for Manitoba thunderstorms, hailstorms and tornadoes as well as investigates the synoptic weather conditions conducive for their development. The study not only uses standard meteorological information, but also various kinds of proxy data, in the form of damage reports. These damage reports complement the meteorological data by providing a higher resolution of observations, particularly in the sparsely populated regions. The synoptic conditions are relatively similar for all forms of severe thunderstorms, though the upper level jet stream (ULJ) is stronger for tornadoes, in general. Composite charts, drawn for 50 larger, more damaging hail days and 48 tornado days in the 1970's, helped identify important surface and upper air weather parameters and their inter -relationships with each other and the location of the storm. Time sequence composite charts were used to also show the development process in severe weather occurrences. From the composites, a synoptic weather type classification was devised with 10 categories to identify each storm by type. The most common pattern for severe weather has a strong southwesterly ULJ, with the storm occurring ahead of an advancing cold front. The ULJ patterns were drawn for each synoptic type days, showing differences between categories. The average conditions during tornado touchdowns were also seen from composite maps of surface and upper air isobaric charts. While severe thunderstorms are seen to occur under the "ideal" conditions, often described for U.S. severe weather, they can also be produced under other weather patterns and combinations of atmospheric parameters thought less favorable. The ULJ and LLJ (low-level jet stream) models used in U.S. studies do not always fit Manitoba storms, however, less favorable jet positions, at specific levels, can be compensated for by low-level advection of warm, and moist air.

3-year chemical composition of free tropospheric PM1 at the Mt. Cimone GAW global station - South Europe - 2165 m a.s.l.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carbone, Claudio; Decesari, Stefano; Paglione, Marco; Giulianelli, Lara; Rinaldi, Matteo; Marinoni, Angela; Cristofanelli, Paolo; Didiodato, Attilio; Bonasoni, Paolo; Fuzzi, Sandro; Facchini, Maria Cristina

2014-04-01

Nocturnal organic and inorganic chemical characterization of fine (PM1) aerosol was carried out at the GAW global high mountain station of Mt. Cimone (CMN), from January 2009 to December 2011, in the framework of the EU-EUSAAR and ACTRIS programs. The station is located at the summit of the Northern Italian Apennines (2165 m a.s.l.) overlooking the polluted Po river basin and is considered representative of background conditions for Southern Europe/Northern Mediterranean. The concentrations of carbonaceous and ionic aerosol follow a typical seasonal trend, with maxima during summer and minima during winter. The average PM1 mass apportioned by the chemical analyses ranged between 1.2 ± 0.68 μg m-3 (winter) and 5.0 ± 2.7 μg m-3 (summer), with ca. 80% and 60%, respectively, accounted for by organic matter, mainly water-soluble (yearly average WSOC/TC ratio 0.67 ± 0.18), the remainder taking the form of ammonium salts. The fine fraction turned out to be mostly neutralized by ammonia, with a slight tendency to acidity during colder months. This seasonal cycle can be explained by the interplay between the local/mesoscale (vertical) and large-scale (advective) circulations. From mid-spring to late summer, stable anticyclonic conditions and increased turbulent mixing in the lower troposphere, associated to the thermal mountain wind system, induce convective/thermal uplift of air masses from the Po Valley to CMN, strongly altering the free tropospheric aerosol features. Conversely, higher vertical stability at the low levels and variable transport patterns related to the passage of synoptic disturbances over Northern Italy, determine a weaker influence of vertical transport of pollution on aerosol composition, during midfall-winter. At CMN, the synoptic-scale circulation regimes presented four principal contributions: Mediterranean, Western Europe, continental Europe and Eastern Europe.

Stratospheric warmings: Synoptic, dynamic and general-circulation aspects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcinturff, R. M. (Editor)

1978-01-01

Synoptic descriptions consist largely of case studies, which involve a distinction between major and minor warmings. Results of energetics studies show the importance of tropospheric-stratospheric interaction, and the significance of the pressure-work term near the tropopause. Theoretical studies have suggested the role of wave-zonal flow interaction as well as nonlinear interaction between eddies, chemical and photochemical reactions, boundary forcing, and other factors. Numerical models have been based on such considerations, and these are discussed under various categories. Some indication is given as to why some of the models have been more successful than others in simulating warnings. The question of ozone and its role in warmings is briefly discussed. Finally, a broad view is taken of stratospheric warmings in relation to man's activities.

Clarifying the Dynamics of the General Circulation: Phillips's 1956 Experiment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, John M.

1998-01-01

In the mid-1950s, amid heated debate over the physical mechanisms that controlled the known features of the atmosphere's general circulation, Norman Phillips simulated hemispheric motion on the high-speed computer at the Institute for Advanced Study. A simple energetically consistent model was integrated for a simulated time of approximately 1 month. Analysis of the model results clarified the respective roles of the synoptic-scale eddies (cyclones-anticyclones) and mean meridional circulation in the maintenance of the upper-level westerlies and the surface wind regimes. Furthermore, the modeled cyclones clearly linked surface frontogenesis with the upper-level Charney-Eady wave. In addition to discussing the model results in light of the controversy and ferment that surrounded general circulation theory in the 1940s-1950s, an effort is made to follow Phillips's scientific path to the experiment.

Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather

Treesearch

Mark J. Schroeder; Monte Glovinsky; Virgil F. Hendricks; Frank C. Hood; Melvin K. Hull; Henry L. Jacobson; Robert Kirkpatrick; Daniel W. Krueger; Lester P. Mallory; Albert G. Oeztel; Robert H. Reese; Leo A. Sergius; Charles E. Syverson

1964-01-01

Recognizing that weather is an important factor in the spread of both urban and wildland fires, a study was made of the synoptic weather patterns and types which produce strong winds, low relative humidities, high temperatures, and lack of rainfall--the conditions conducive to rapid fire spread. Such historic fires as the San Francisco fire of 1906, the Berkeley fire...

Investigating Downscaling Methods and Evaluating Climate Models for Use in Estimating Regional Water Resources in Mountainous Regions under Changing Climatic Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frei, Allan; Nolin, Anne W.; Serreze, Mark C.; Armstrong, Richard L.; McGinnis, David L.; Robinson, David A.

2004-01-01

The purpose of this three-year study is to develop and evaluate techniques to estimate the range of potential hydrological impacts of climate change in mountainous areas. Three main objectives are set out in the proposal. (1) To develop and evaluate transfer functions to link tropospheric circulation to regional snowfall. (2) To evaluate a suite of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for use in estimating synoptic scale circulation and the resultant regional snowfall. And (3) to estimate the range of potential hydrological impacts of changing climate in the two case study areas: the Upper Colorado River basin, and the Catskill Mountains of southeastern New York State. Both regions provide water to large populations.

The annual cycle of pressure on Mars measured by Viking landers 1 and 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hess, S. L.; Ryan, J. A.; Tillman, J. E.; Henry, R. M.; Leovy, C. B.

1980-01-01

Daily mean atmospheric pressures at the two Viking landers are presented for slightly more than a Martian year. The seasonal variation of pressure owing to exchange of CO2 with the polar caps is quite evident and contradicts, in part, earlier theoretical results. Day-to-day variations are the result of passage of synoptic-scale high and low pressure systems and are an important clue to the general circulation of the atmosphere. The effects of global dust storms on the general circulation and on the diurnal variation of pressure are detected and interpreted.

Strong signatures of high-latitude blocks and subtropical ridges in winter PM10 over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ordonez, C.; Garrido-Perez, J. M.; Garcia-Herrera, R.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric blocking is associated with persistent, slow-moving high pressure systems that interrupt the eastward progress of extratropical storm systems at middle and high latitudes. Subtropical ridges are low latitude structures manifested as bands of positive geopotential height anomalies extending from sub-tropical latitudes towards extra-tropical regions. We have quantified the impact of blocks and ridges on daily PM10 (particulate matter ≤ 10 µm) observations obtained from the European Environment Agency's air quality database (AirBase) for the winter period of 2000-2010. For this purpose, the response of the PM10 concentrations to the location of blocks and ridges with centres in two main longitudinal sectors (Atlantic, ATL, 30˚-0˚ W; European, EUR, 0˚-30˚ E) is examined. EUR blocking is associated with a collapse of the boundary layer as well as reduced wind speeds and precipitation occurrence, yielding large positive anomalies which average 12 µg m-3 over the whole continent. Conversely, the enhanced zonal flow around 50˚-60˚ N and the increased occurrence of precipitation over northern-central Europe on days with ATL ridges favour the ventilation of the boundary layer and the impact of washout processes, reducing PM10 concentrations on average by around 8 µg m-3. The presence of EUR blocks is also concurrent with an increased probability of exceeding the European air quality target (50 µg m-3 for 24-h averaged PM10) and the local 90th percentiles for this pollutant at many sites, while the opposite effect is found for ridges. In addition, the effect of synoptic persistence on the PM10 concentrations is particularly strong for EUR blocks. Finally, we have found that the effect of both synoptic patterns can partly control the interannual variability of winter mean PM10 at many sites of north-western and central Europe, with coefficients of determination (R2) exceeding 0.80 for southern Germany. These results indicate that the response of the particulate matter (PM) concentrations to large-scale circulation patterns is stronger than previously reported for Europe and other mid-latitude regions. These findings can be exploited in the future to evaluate the modelled response of air quality to circulation changes within chemical transport models (CTMs) and chemistry-climate models (CCMs).

Atmospheric circulation feedback on west Asian dust and Indian monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaskaoutis, Dimitris; Houssos, Elias; Gautam, Ritesh; Singh, Ramesh; Rashki, Alireza; Dumka, Umesh

2016-04-01

Classification of the atmospheric circulation patterns associated with high aerosol loading events over the Ganges valley, via the synergy of Factor and Cluster analysis techniques, has indicated six different synoptic weather patterns, two of which mostly occur during late pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons (May to September). The current study focuses on examining these two specific clusters that are associated with different mean sea level pressure (MSLP), geopotential height at 700 hPa (Z700) and wind fields that seem to affect the aerosol (mostly dust) emissions and precipitation distribution over the Indian sub-continent. Furthermore, the study reveals that enhanced aerosol presence over the Arabian Sea is positively associated with increased rainfall over the Indian landmass. The increased dust over the Arabian Sea and rainfall over India are associated with deepening of the northwestern Indian and Arabian lows that increase thermal convection and convergence of humid air masses into Indian landmass, resulting in larger monsoon precipitation. For this cluster, negative MSLP and Z700 anomalies are observed over the Arabian Peninsula that enhance the dust outflow from Arabia and, concurrently, the southwesterly air flow resulting in increase in monsoon precipitation over India. The daily precipitation over India is found to be positively correlated with the aerosol loading over the Arabian Sea for both weather clusters, thus verifying recent results from satellite observations and model simulations concerning the modulation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall by the Arabian dust. The present work reveals that in addition to the radiative impacts of dust on modulating the monsoon rainfall, differing weather patterns favor changes in dust emissions, accumulation as well as rainfall distribution over south Asia.

The Role of Atmospheric Deposition on the Input of Trace Elements to the Surface Ocean: the Bermuda Wet and Dry Record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Church, T. M.; Sedwick, P. N.; Sholkovitz, E. R.

2011-12-01

Global surface temperature variations and changes result from intricate interplay of phenomena varying on scales ranging from fraction of seconds (turbulence) to thousands of years (e.g. glaciations). To complicate these issues further, the contribution of the anthropogenic forcing on the observed changes in surface temperatures varies over time and is spatially non-uniform. While evaluating all individual bands of this broad spectrum is virtually impossible, the availability of global daily datasets in the last few decades from reanalyses and Global Climate Models (GCMs) simulations allows estimating the contribution of phenomena varying on synoptic-to-interannual timescales. Previous studies using GCM simulations for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (IPCC AR4) have documented a consistent poleward shift in the storm tracks related to changes in baroclinicity resulting from global warming. However, our recent research (Cannon et al. 2013) indicated that the pattern of changes in the storm tracks observed in the last few decades is much more complex in both space and time. Complex terrain and the relative distribution of continents, oceans and icecaps play a significant role for changes in synoptic activity. Coupled modes such as the Northern and Southern annular modes, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and respective teleconnections with changes in baroclinicity have been identified as relevant dynamical forcings for variations of the midlatitude storm tracks, increasing the uncertainties in future projections. Moreover, global warming has modified the amplitude of the annual cycles of temperature, moisture and circulation throughout the planet and there is strong indication that these changes have mostly affected the tropics and Polar Regions. The present study advances these findings by investigating the 'blue-shift' in the underlying dynamics causing surface temperature anomalies and investigates relationships with low and upper level circulation. This research uses two sources of data: global daily Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) (1979- 2010) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global daily simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Two sets of simulations are investigated: the Historic and Pi-control runs. Here the term ';blue-shift' is used to indicate long-term increase in the amplitude of the synoptic scale relatively to the annual cycle amplitude derived from wavelet analysis as an analogy to the definition commonly used in physics (i.e., a shift toward shorter wavelengths of the spectral lines). It is shown that the blue-shift has been observed in midlatitudes of some continental areas of the Northern Hemisphere and North Pacific but in relatively higher latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. Tropical areas and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere have experienced opposite trend (red-shift). Moreover, the pattern of the blue and red-shifts exhibits seasonal changes. References: Cannon, F., L. M. V. Carvalho, C. Jones, B. Bookhagen, 2013: Multi-Annual Variations in Winter Westerly Disturbance Activity Affecting the Himalaya. Submitted to Climate Dynamics

The 'Blue-Shift' in midlatitude dynamics in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalho, L. V.

2013-12-01

Global surface temperature variations and changes result from intricate interplay of phenomena varying on scales ranging from fraction of seconds (turbulence) to thousands of years (e.g. glaciations). To complicate these issues further, the contribution of the anthropogenic forcing on the observed changes in surface temperatures varies over time and is spatially non-uniform. While evaluating all individual bands of this broad spectrum is virtually impossible, the availability of global daily datasets in the last few decades from reanalyses and Global Climate Models (GCMs) simulations allows estimating the contribution of phenomena varying on synoptic-to-interannual timescales. Previous studies using GCM simulations for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (IPCC AR4) have documented a consistent poleward shift in the storm tracks related to changes in baroclinicity resulting from global warming. However, our recent research (Cannon et al. 2013) indicated that the pattern of changes in the storm tracks observed in the last few decades is much more complex in both space and time. Complex terrain and the relative distribution of continents, oceans and icecaps play a significant role for changes in synoptic activity. Coupled modes such as the Northern and Southern annular modes, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and respective teleconnections with changes in baroclinicity have been identified as relevant dynamical forcings for variations of the midlatitude storm tracks, increasing the uncertainties in future projections. Moreover, global warming has modified the amplitude of the annual cycles of temperature, moisture and circulation throughout the planet and there is strong indication that these changes have mostly affected the tropics and Polar Regions. The present study advances these findings by investigating the 'blue-shift' in the underlying dynamics causing surface temperature anomalies and investigates relationships with low and upper level circulation. This research uses two sources of data: global daily Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) (1979- 2010) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global daily simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Two sets of simulations are investigated: the Historic and Pi-control runs. Here the term ';blue-shift' is used to indicate long-term increase in the amplitude of the synoptic scale relatively to the annual cycle amplitude derived from wavelet analysis as an analogy to the definition commonly used in physics (i.e., a shift toward shorter wavelengths of the spectral lines). It is shown that the blue-shift has been observed in midlatitudes of some continental areas of the Northern Hemisphere and North Pacific but in relatively higher latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. Tropical areas and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere have experienced opposite trend (red-shift). Moreover, the pattern of the blue and red-shifts exhibits seasonal changes. References: Cannon, F., L. M. V. Carvalho, C. Jones, B. Bookhagen, 2013: Multi-Annual Variations in Winter Westerly Disturbance Activity Affecting the Himalaya. Submitted to Climate Dynamics

Baseline data on the oceanography of Cook Inlet, Alaska

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gatto, L. W.

1975-01-01

Regional relationships between river hydrology, sediment transport, circulation and coastal processes were analyzed utilizing aircraft, ERTS-1 and N.O.A.A. -2 and -3 imagery and corroborative ground truth data. The use of satellite and aircraft imagery provides a means of acquiring synoptic information for analyzing the dynamic processes of Cook Inlet in a fashion not previously possible.

The life cycles of persistent anomalies and blocking over the North Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dole, Randall M.

1986-01-01

The evolution of persistent anomaly patterns over the central North Pacific is investigated. Composite time evolution fields of the 500-mbar anomaly patterns are constructed from low-pass and unfiltered height anomaly data; the time scales for the development and decay of these persistent anomalies are analyzed. The relationship between zonal flow in the Pacific jet region and the development of the anomaly patterns is examined. The effect of baroclinic instabilities on the development of the anomalies is studied. The vertical structure and synoptic characteristics of the evolution of the anomalies are described. It is noted that the initial rapid growth of the main center may be associated with a propagating, intensifying, synoptic-scale disturbance which originates in the midlatitudes over eastern Asia.

The East Asian Jet Stream and Asian-Pacific-American Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Song; Lau, K.-M.; Kim, K.-M.

2000-01-01

The upper-tropospheric westerly jet stream over subtropical East Asia and western Pacific, often referred to as East Asian Jet (EAJ), is an important atmospheric circulation system in the Asian-Pacific-American (APA) region during winter. It is characterized by variabilities on a wide range of time scales and exerts a strong impact on the weather and climate of the region. On the synoptic scale, the jet stream is closely linked to many phenomena such as cyclogenesis, frontogenesis, blocking, storm track activity, and the development of other atmospheric disturbances. On the seasonal time scale, the variation of the EAJ determines many characteristics of the seasonal transition of the atmospheric circulation especially over East Asia. The variabilities of the EAJ on these time scales have been relatively well documented. It has also been understood since decades ago that the interannual. variability of the EAJ is associated with many climate signals in the APA region. These signals include the persistent anomalies of the East Asian winter monsoon and the changes in diabatic heating and in the Hadley circulation. However, many questions remain for the year-to-year variabilities of the EAJ and their relation to the APA climate. For example, what is the relationship between the EAJ and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Will the EAJ and ENSO play different roles in modulating the APA climate? How is the jet stream linked to the non-ENSO-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and to the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern?

The NASA-Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling Framework - Land Information System: Global Land/atmosphere Interaction with Resolved Convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mohr, Karen Irene; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chern, Jiun-Dar; Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2013-01-01

The present generation of general circulation models (GCM) use parameterized cumulus schemes and run at hydrostatic grid resolutions. To improve the representation of cloud-scale moist processes and landeatmosphere interactions, a global, Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) coupled to the Land Information System (LIS) has been developed at NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center. The MMFeLIS has three components, a finite-volume (fv) GCM (Goddard Earth Observing System Ver. 4, GEOS-4), a 2D cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble, GCE), and the LIS, representing the large-scale atmospheric circulation, cloud processes, and land surface processes, respectively. The non-hydrostatic GCE model replaces the single-column cumulus parameterization of fvGCM. The model grid is composed of an array of fvGCM gridcells each with a series of embedded GCE models. A horizontal coupling strategy, GCE4fvGCM4Coupler4LIS, offered significant computational efficiency, with the scalability and I/O capabilities of LIS permitting landeatmosphere interactions at cloud-scale. Global simulations of 2007e2008 and comparisons to observations and reanalysis products were conducted. Using two different versions of the same land surface model but the same initial conditions, divergence in regional, synoptic-scale surface pressure patterns emerged within two weeks. The sensitivity of largescale circulations to land surface model physics revealed significant functional value to using a scalable, multi-model land surface modeling system in global weather and climate prediction.

Changes in Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Associated with Increased Extreme Precipitation Events in the Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collow, A.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Koster, R. D.

2016-12-01

Over the past two decades a statistically significant increase in the frequency of summertime extreme precipitation events has been observed over the northeastern United States - the largest such increase in the US in terms of area and magnitude. In an effort to characterize synoptic scale patterns and changes to the atmospheric circulation associated with extreme precipitation events in this region, atmospheric fields from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) are composited on days that exceed the 90th percentile of precipitation from the CPC-Unified daily gauge-based precipitation observations. Changes over time in composites of sea level pressure, 500 hPa height, and the vertical profile of equivalent potential temperature indicate that the observed increase in extreme precipitation events is associated with extratropical cyclones, including cut off low pressure and frontal systems. Analysis of the Eady maximum growth rate, an indicator for storm tracks, shows that storms tracks in recent years have shifted southward. In addition, mean summertime transient meridional winds have decreased over time, slowing baroclinic systems and causing stationary systems to become more frequent, in agreement with previous studies examining blocking due to high pressure systems. The Atlantic Ocean provides a significant supply of moisture that converges over the region when a cyclonic circulation is situated to the south, and the statistically significant increase in Eady maximum growth rate over time there provides an increasingly improved thermodynamic environment for extreme precipitation events.

Synoptic and climatological analysis of atmospheric circulation impacts on particulate matter pollution in Shanghai, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, Z.; Fan, S.

2016-12-01

This study investigated the particulate matter characteristics within different circulation types (CTs) in the megacity of Shanghai during the period 2001-2015, and provided a quantitative evaluation of atmospheric circulation influences on PM10 pollution across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, from local to region and daily to interannual. Ten CTs were identified over the Asian-Pacific region by objective Lamb Weather Type approach and each resulting CT was characterized with distinct local meteorology and air mass source. The PM10 loadings in the CTs associated with continental westerly flow were significant higher than that in the CTs linked to marine easterly air masses. Regional backgrounds that transported by the synoptic flows were more responsible for the distinct PM10 levels in different CTs. The locally-produced PM10 generally stabilized in range of 20-25 μg m-3, but enhanced to 41.2 μg m-3 in case of anticyclone type. There were distinct PM10 trends in different CTs (ranged from -3.74 to -0.28 μg m-3 yr-1), indicating the different background trends. Overall, the PM10 concentrations have decreased (-2.33 μg m-3 yr-1) in the studied period and the estimated locally-produced trend (-0.79 μg m-3 yr-1) accounted for 33.9% of overall downward trend. The occurrence frequency presented an increase (0.15 % yr-1) for anticyclone type, but a decrease (-0.10 % yr-1) for the type N associated with invasion of cold air. The 15-yr frequency change of atmospheric circulation induced an increase in PM­10 level (0.17 μg m-3) in Shanghai. On the contrary, controls on the pollutant emission had always positive effects and hence should be always encouraged.

Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, Noelia Felipe; Sillmann, Jana; Schnell, Jordan L.; Rust, Henning W.; Butler, Tim

2016-04-01

The present work assesses the relationship between local and synoptic meteorological conditions and surface ozone concentration over Europe in spring and summer months, during the period 1998-2012 using a new interpolated data set of observed surface ozone concentrations over the European domain. Along with local meteorological conditions, the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on surface ozone is addressed through a set of airflow indices computed with a novel implementation of a grid-by-grid weather type classification across Europe. Drivers of surface ozone over the full distribution of maximum daily 8-hour average values are investigated, along with drivers of the extreme high percentiles and exceedances or air quality guideline thresholds. Three different regression techniques are applied: multiple linear regression to assess the drivers of maximum daily ozone, logistic regression to assess the probability of threshold exceedances and quantile regression to estimate the meteorological influence on extreme values, as represented by the 95th percentile. The relative importance of the input parameters (predictors) is assessed by a backward stepwise regression procedure that allows the identification of the most important predictors in each model. Spatial patterns of model performance exhibit distinct variations between regions. The inclusion of the ozone persistence is particularly relevant over Southern Europe. In general, the best model performance is found over Central Europe, where the maximum temperature plays an important role as a driver of maximum daily ozone as well as its extreme values, especially during warmer months.

The impact of synoptic weather on UK surface ozone and implications for premature mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, R. J.; Butt, E. W.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Doherty, R. M.; Fenech, S.; Schmidt, A.; Arnold, S. R.; Savage, N. H.

2016-12-01

Air pollutants, such as ozone, have adverse impacts on human health and cause, for example, respiratory and cardiovascular problems. In the United Kingdom (UK), peak surface ozone concentrations typically occur in the spring and summer and are controlled by emission of precursor gases, tropospheric chemistry and local meteorology which can be influenced by large-scale synoptic weather regimes. In this study we composite surface and satellite observations of summer-time (April to September) ozone under different UK atmospheric circulation patterns, as defined by the Lamb weather types. Anticyclonic conditions and easterly flows are shown to significantly enhance ozone concentrations over the UK relative to summer-time average values. Anticyclonic stability and light winds aid the trapping of ozone and its precursor gases near the surface. Easterly flows (NE, E, SE) transport ozone and precursor gases from polluted regions in continental Europe (e.g. the Benelux region) to the UK. Cyclonic conditions and westerly flows, associated with unstable weather, transport ozone from the UK mainland, replacing it with clean maritime (North Atlantic) air masses. Increased cloud cover also likely decrease ozone production rates. We show that the UK Met Office regional air quality model successfully reproduces UK summer-time ozone concentrations and ozone enhancements under anticyclonic and south-easterly conditions for the summer of 2006. By using established ozone exposure-health burden metrics, anticyclonic and easterly condition enhanced surface ozone concentrations pose the greatest public health risk.

[Effects of synoptic type on surface ozone pollution in Beijing].

PubMed

Tang, Gui-qian; Li, Xin; Wang, Xiao-ke; Xin, Jin-yuan; Hu, Bo; Wang, Li-li; Ren, Yu-fen; Wang, Yue-Si

2010-03-01

Ozone (O), influenced by meteorological factors, is a primary gaseous photochemical pollutant during summer to fall in Beijing' s urban ambient. Continuous monitoring during July to September in 2008 was carried out at four sites in Beijing. Analyzed with synoptic type, the results show that the ratios of pre-low cylonic (mainly Mongolia cyclone) and pre-high anticylonic to total weather conditions are about 42% and 20%, illustrating the high-and low-ozone episodes, respectively. At the pre-low cylonic conditions, high temperature, low humidity, mountain and valley winds caused by local circulation induce average hourly maximum ozone concentration (volume fraction) up to 102.2 x 10(-9), negative correlated with atmospheric pressure with a slope of -3.4 x 10(-9) Pa(-1). The time of mountain wind changed to valley wind dominates the diurnal time of maximum ozone, generally around 14:00. At the pre-high anticylonic conditions, low temperature, high humidity and systematic north wind induce average hourly maximum ozone concentration (volume fraction) only 49.3 x 10(-9), the diurnal time of maximum ozone is deferred by continuous north wind till about 16:00. The consistency of photochemical pollution in Beijing region shows that good correlation exists between synoptic type and ozone concentration. Therefore, getting an eye on the structure and evolution of synoptic type is of great significances for forecasting the photochemical pollution.

Synoptic analysis of heat waves in the Barcelona city (Catalonia, Spain) during 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amaro, Jéssica; Peña, Juan Carlos; Miró, Josep Ramon; Aran, Montserrat

2017-04-01

The impact of extremely warm episodes on health has been analysed by a large number of studies conducted in different countries and cities, showing that heat waves events (HWE) can cause an abrupt increase in mortality. A HWE was defined as a 7-day sequence following a key-day labelled by the 95th percentile of Barcelona daily mortality (see Peña et al., 2015). The aim of this study is to identify synoptic patterns associated to HWE in Barcelona over the 21st century and evaluate the impact and possible mitigations. To achieve it, a multivariate analysis (MVA) integrating different atmospheric levels (sea level pressure, temperature at 850 hPa and geopotential at 500 hPa) was undertaken. The observed data used for this study was the 20th Century Reanalysis. The Max Planck Institute Earth system model was used to study two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) during the 21st century. The model was calibrated given the variability in the climate scenario, using the Quantile-Quantile mapping transformation (Q-Q). The MVA applied to the observed period (1990-2015) distinguish three main synoptic patterns: two dynamic configurations produced by southern fluxes related to an Atlantic low, associated with HWE recorded in southern Europe, and a third pattern identified by a stagnation situation related to persistent anticyclone periods. These patterns were also detected in the control simulated period (1961-2005) after the Q-Q calibration, preserving, therefore, the climatic variability: the number of HWE during the warm period (1990-2005) is twice more than during the cold period (1976-1989) due to an intensification of the warm masses. In the RCP 4.5 scenario (2006-2100 period) a positive and significant trend is shown in synoptic patterns which provoke HWE in Barcelona, especially during August; in the RCP 8.5 scenario there is no significant trend, but the intensification of the warm masses is higher.

Traveling Weather Disturbances in Mars Southern Extratropics: Sway of the Great Impact Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

2016-01-01

As on Earth, between late autumn and early spring on Mars middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal contrasts between the equator and poles (i.e. "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e. transient synoptic-period waves). Within a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, such large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. These wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and moreover generalized tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water vapor and water-ice clouds) between low and high latitudes of the planet. The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This global circulation model imposes interactively lifted (and radiatively active) dust based on a threshold value of the instantaneous surface stress. Compared to observations, the model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e. globally averaged, a more dusty atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). In contrast to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense synoptically. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e. east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather disturbances are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars' full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating essential large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars' transient barotropic/baroclinic eddies are significantly influenced by the great impact basins of this hemisphere (e.g., Argyre and Hellas). In addition, the occurrence of a southern storm zone in late winter and early spring is keyed particularly to the western hemisphere via orographic influences arising from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate fundamental differences amongst such simulations and these are described.

Evaluation of operational numerical weather predictions in relation to the prevailing synoptic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pytharoulis, Ioannis; Tegoulias, Ioannis; Karacostas, Theodore; Kotsopoulos, Stylianos; Kartsios, Stergios; Bampzelis, Dimitrios

2015-04-01

The Thessaly plain, which is located in central Greece, has a vital role in the financial life of the country, because of its significant agricultural production. The aim of DAPHNE project (http://www.daphne-meteo.gr) is to tackle the problem of drought in this area by means of Weather Modification in convective clouds. This problem is reinforced by the increase of population and the water demand for irrigation, especially during the warm period of the year. The nonhydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), is utilized for research and operational purposes of DAPHNE project. The WRF output fields are employed by the partners in order to provide high-resolution meteorological guidance and plan the project's operations. The model domains cover: i) Europe, the Mediterranean sea and northern Africa, ii) Greece and iii) the wider region of Thessaly (at selected periods), at horizontal grid-spacings of 15km, 5km and 1km, respectively, using 2-way telescoping nesting. The aim of this research work is to investigate the model performance in relation to the prevailing upper-air synoptic circulation. The statistical evaluation of the high-resolution operational forecasts of near-surface and upper air fields is performed at a selected period of the operational phase of the project using surface observations, gridded fields and weather radar data. The verification is based on gridded, point and object oriented techniques. The 10 upper-air circulation types, which describe the prevailing conditions over Greece, are employed in the synoptic classification. This methodology allows the identification of model errors that occur and/or are maximized at specific synoptic conditions and may otherwise be obscured in aggregate statistics. Preliminary analysis indicates that the largest errors are associated with cyclonic conditions. Acknowledgments This research work of Daphne project (11SYN_8_1088) is co-funded by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek national funds, through the action "COOPERATION 2011: Partnerships of Production and Research Institutions in Focused Research and Technology Sectors" in the framework of the Operational Programme "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" and Regions in Transition (OPC II, NSRF 2007-2013).

Traveling Weather Disturbances in Mars' Southern Extratropics: Sway of the Great Impact Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

2016-04-01

As on Earth, between late autumn and early spring on Mars middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal contrasts between the equator and poles (i.e., "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Within a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, such large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. These wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and moreover generalized tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water vapor and water-ice clouds) between low and high latitudes of the planet. The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This global circulation model imposes interactively lifted (and radiatively active) dust based on a threshold value of the instantaneous surface stress. Compared to observations, the model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a more dusty atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). In contrast to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense synoptically. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather disturbances are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars' full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating essential large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars' transient barotropic/baroclinic eddies are significantly influenced by the great impact basins of this hemisphere (e.g., Argyre and Hellas). In addition, the occurrence of a southern storm zone in late winter and early spring is keyed particularly to the western hemisphere via orographic influences arising from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate fundamental differences amongst such simulations and these are described.

Changes in present and future circulation types frequency in northwest Iberian Peninsula.

PubMed

Lorenzo, María N; Ramos, Alexandre M; Taboada, Juan J; Gimeno, Luis

2011-01-21

The aim of the work described herein was to study projection scenarios in order to find changes in the synoptic variability of the northwest Iberian Peninsula in the 21st century. To this end, we investigated the changes in the frequency of the different circulation types computed for the study area using three different models used in the IPCC 4(th) assessment report. The circulation types were computed using the procedure known as Lamb circulation types. The control simulation for the late 20th century was evaluated objectively from the results obtained using data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, as to evaluate the ability of the model to reproduce the present climate. We have compared not only seasonal mean sea level pressure fields but also the mean seasonal frequency of circulation types. The results for the end of the 21st century show a decrease in the frequency of cyclonic, W, and SW circulation types in the spring and summer months. This trend also appears in the autumn, with a concomitant increase in the anticyclonic types.

Changes in Present and Future Circulation Types Frequency in Northwest Iberian Peninsula

PubMed Central

Lorenzo, María N.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Taboada, Juan J.; Gimeno, Luis

2011-01-01

The aim of the work described herein was to study projection scenarios in order to find changes in the synoptic variability of the northwest Iberian Peninsula in the 21st century. To this end, we investigated the changes in the frequency of the different circulation types computed for the study area using three different models used in the IPCC 4th assessment report. The circulation types were computed using the procedure known as Lamb circulation types. The control simulation for the late 20th century was evaluated objectively from the results obtained using data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, as to evaluate the ability of the model to reproduce the present climate. We have compared not only seasonal mean sea level pressure fields but also the mean seasonal frequency of circulation types. The results for the end of the 21st century show a decrease in the frequency of cyclonic, W, and SW circulation types in the spring and summer months. This trend also appears in the autumn, with a concomitant increase in the anticyclonic types. PMID:21283703

The linkage between geopotential height and monthly precipitation in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shirvani, Amin; Fadaei, Amir Sabetan; Landman, Willem A.

2018-04-01

This paper investigates the linkage between large-scale atmospheric circulation and monthly precipitation during November to April over Iran. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is used to set up the statistical linkage between the 850 hPa geopotential height large-scale circulation and monthly precipitation over Iran for the period 1968-2010. The monthly precipitation dataset for 50 synoptic stations distributed in different climate regions of Iran is considered as the response variable in the CCA. The monthly geopotential height reanalysis dataset over an area between 10° N and 60° N and from 20° E to 80° E is utilized as the explanatory variable in the CCA. Principal component analysis (PCA) as a pre-filter is used for data reduction for both explanatory and response variables before applying CCA. The optimal number of principal components and canonical variables to be retained in the CCA equations is determined using the highest average cross-validated Kendall's tau value. The 850 hPa geopotential height pattern over the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia, and Persian Gulf is found to be the major pattern related to Iranian monthly precipitation. The Pearson correlation between the area averaged of the observed and predicted precipitation over the study area for Jan, Feb, March, April, November, and December months are statistically significant at the 5% significance level and are 0.78, 0.80, 0.82, 0.74, 0.79, and 0.61, respectively. The relative operating characteristic (ROC) indicates that the highest scores for the above- and below-normal precipitation categories are, respectively, for February and April and the lowest scores found for December.

Contribution of large-scale midlatitude disturbances to hourly precipitation extremes in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbero, Renaud; Abatzoglou, John T.; Fowler, Hayley J.

2018-02-01

Midlatitude synoptic weather regimes account for a substantial portion of annual precipitation accumulation as well as multi-day precipitation extremes across parts of the United States (US). However, little attention has been devoted to understanding how synoptic-scale patterns contribute to hourly precipitation extremes. A majority of 1-h annual maximum precipitation (AMP) across the western US were found to be linked to two coherent midlatitude synoptic patterns: disturbances propagating along the jet stream, and cutoff upper-level lows. The influence of these two patterns on 1-h AMP varies geographically. Over 95% of 1-h AMP along the western coastal US were coincident with progressive midlatitude waves embedded within the jet stream, while over 30% of 1-h AMP across the interior western US were coincident with cutoff lows. Between 30-60% of 1-h AMP were coincident with the jet stream across the Ohio River Valley and southeastern US, whereas a a majority of 1-h AMP over the rest of central and eastern US were not found to be associated with either midlatitude synoptic features. Composite analyses for 1-h AMP days coincident to cutoff lows and jet stream show that an anomalous moisture flux and upper-level dynamics are responsible for initiating instability and setting up an environment conducive to 1-h AMP events. While hourly precipitation extremes are generally thought to be purely convective in nature, this study shows that large-scale dynamics and baroclinic disturbances may also contribute to precipitation extremes on sub-daily timescales.

Synoptic moisture pathways associated with mean and extreme precipitation over Canada for winter and spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, X.; Gan, T. Y. Y.; Chen, Y. D.

2017-12-01

Dominant synoptic moisture pathway patterns of vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) in winter and spring over Canada West and East were identified using the self-organizing map method. Large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) were related to the variability in seasonal precipitation totals and occurrences of precipitation extremes. Changes in both occurrences of LSMPs and seasonal precipitation occurred under those LSMPs were evaluated to attribute observed changes in seasonal precipitation totals and occurrences of precipitation extremes. Effects of large-scale climate anomalies on occurrences of LSMPs were also examined. Results show that synoptic moisture pathways and LSMPs exhibit the propagation of jet streams as the location and direction of ridges and troughs, and the strength and center of pressure lows and highs varied considerably between LSMPs. Significant decreases in occurrences of synoptic moisture pathway patterns that are favorable with positive precipitation anomalies and more precipitation extremes in winter over Canada West resulted in decreases in seasonal precipitation and occurrences of precipitation extremes. LSMPs resulting in a hot and dry climate and less (more) frequent precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairies in winter and northwestern Canada in spring are more likely to occur in years with a negative phase of PNA. Occurrences of LSMPs for a wet climate and frequent occurrences of extreme precipitation events over southeastern Canada are associated with a positive phase of NAO. In El Niño years or negative PDO years, LSMPs associated with a dry climate and less frequent precipitation extremes over western Canada tend to occur.

Study of the tornado event in Greece on March 25, 2009: Synoptic analysis and numerical modeling using modified topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsangouras, I. T.; Nastos, P. T.; Pytharoulis, I.

2016-03-01

Recent research revealed that western Greece and NW Peloponnese are regions that favor prefrontal tornadic incidence. On March 25, 2009 a tornado developed approximately at 10:30 UTC near Varda village (NW Peloponnese). Tornado intensity was T4-T5 (TORRO scale) and consequently caused an economic impact of 350,000 € over the local society. The goals of this study are: (i) to analyze synoptic and remote sensing features regarding the tornado event over NW Peloponnese and (ii) to investigate the role of topography in tornadogenesis triggered under strong synoptic scale forcing over that area. Synoptic analysis was based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data sets. The analysis of daily anomaly of synoptic conditions with respect to 30 years' climatology (1981-2010), was based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis data sets. In addition, numerous remote sensing data sets were derived by the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS) weather station network in order to better interpret the examined tornado event. Finally, numerical modeling was performed using the non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), initialized by ECMWF gridded analyses, with telescoping nested grids that allow the representation of atmospheric circulations ranging from the synoptic scale down to the meso-scale. The two numerical experiments were performed on the basis of: (a) the presence and (b) the absence of topography (landscape), so as to determine whether the occurrence of a tornado - identified by diagnostic instability indices - could be indicated by modifying topography. The energy helicity index (EHI), the bulk Richardson number (BRN) shear, the storm-relative environmental helicity (SRH), and the maximum convective available potential energy (MCAPE, for parcels with maximum θe) were considered as principal diagnostic instability variables and employed in both numerical experiments. Furthermore, model verification was conducted, accompanied by analysis of the absolute vorticity budget. Synoptic analysis revealed that the synoptic weather conditions on March 25, 2009 are in agreement with the composite synoptic climatology for tornado days over western Greece. In addition, maximum daily anomalies at the barometric levels of 500, 700, 850 and 925 hPa were found, compared to the climatology of composite mean anomalies for tornado days over western Greece. Numerical simulations revealed that the topography of NW Peloponnese did not constitute an important factor during the tornado event on March 25, 2009, based on EHI, SRH, BRN, and MCAPE analyses.

Characterizing ocean gyres formation within a bay using vorticity and HF radar measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragnoli, E.; Donncha, F. O.; Hartnett, M.

2012-04-01

In situations in which wind forcing plays a dominant role in surface currents it becomes important to understand its correlation with parameters that can be used to characterise circulation patterns within a bay. These datasets can then be used in the detection and characterisation of ocean gyres. A network of high frequency radars (NUIG CODAR) is deployed within Galway Bay, on the West Coast of Ireland as a backbone system within an integrated coastal ocean observation system. This system provides real-time synoptic measurements of both ocean surface currents and surface waves across the entire bay. In this work, vorticity is identified as a defining quantity for the characterisation of circulating flow patterns (in particular for the detection of ocean gyres) and it is directly calculated from the measured velocity vectors of NUIG CODAR. A correlation study with wind and tide measurements is then undertaken in order to investigate the dependencies between vorticity and those parameters. A comprehensive NUIG CODAR, weather station and tide gauge monitoring program was conducted over a 30 days period and the data collected analysed for the correlation with the computed vorticity. Tidal information from the FES2004 Global tidal atlas defined surface elevations at the open sea boundaries in the west and in the south. Data from a tide gauge deployed within the bay, which provided real-time tidal data at 6 minute intervals, was used to fine-tune model elevations. A weather station located at National University of Ireland, Galway provided measured wind data for the model. The NUIG CODAR coastal observation system detects strong, non-persistent, gyre formation within Galway Bay. During periods of relatively large tidal ranges (order 4m) and light wind conditions well defined, cyclonic circulation is developed within the bay. The correlation analysis shows that the gyres tend to form soon after high tide and last until the next low water; the gyre structure is transported about the bay with the bulk advection of tidal motion. This is the first time this feature has been observed and the significance of its consequences on water circulation will be the subject of future research.

On the linkage between Arctic sea ice and Mid-latitude weather pattern: the situation in East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, S.; Zhang, Y.; Wu, Q.

2017-12-01

The influence of Arctic changes on the weather patterns in the highly populated mid-latitude is a complex and controversial topic with considerable uncertainties such as the low signal-to-noise, ill-suited metrics of circulation changes and the missing of dynamical understanding. In this study, the possible linkage between the Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) and the wintertime weather patterns in East Asia is investigated by comparing groups of statistical and diagnostic analyses. Our study shows a robust relationship between the early autumn SIC in Barents, Kara, Laptev and East Siberia Sea and the energies of wintertime transient activities corresponding to the weather patterns over East Asia on inter-annual time scales. With the reduction of SIC in autumn, the wintertime synoptic (2-10 day) kinetic energy in the north of Eurasia decreases while the low-frequency (10-30 days) kinetic energy, which corresponds to persistent weather patterns, exhibits an evident and dominant increase over the north of Caspian Sea, Lake Baikal and the Ural Mountain. With the reduction of SIC, the intra-seasonal temperature fluctuations present coherent changes over a broader region as well, with significant increase of the low-frequency variability in the vast north of Tibet Plateau and East Asia. The changes of the low-frequency transient activities may be attributed to the slowly southward propagating wave energies from polar regions. However, no consistent stratosphere signals are found associated with such linkage on inter-annual time scales.

Understanding the influence of orography on the precipitation diurnal cycle and the associated atmospheric processes in the central Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Junquas, C.; Takahashi, K.; Condom, T.; Espinoza, J.-C.; Chavez, S.; Sicart, J.-E.; Lebel, T.

2018-06-01

In the tropical Andes, the identification of the present synoptic mechanisms associated with the diurnal cycle of precipitation and its interaction with orography is a key step to understand how the atmospheric circulation influences the patterns of precipitation variability on longer time-scales. In particular we aim to better understand the combination of the local and regional mechanisms controlling the diurnal cycle of summertime (DJF) precipitation in the Northern Central Andes (NCA) region of Southern Peru. A climatology of the diurnal cycle is obtained from 15 wet seasons (2000-2014) of 3-hourly TRMM-3B42 data (0.25° × 0.25°) and swath data from the TRMM-2A25 precipitation radar product (5 km × 5 km). The main findings are: (1) in the NCA region, the diurnal cycle shows a maximum precipitation occurring during the day (night) in the western (eastern) side of the Andes highlands, (2) in the valleys of the Cuzco region and in the Amazon slope of the Andes the maximum (minimum) precipitation occurs during the night (day). The WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) regional atmospheric model is used to simulate the mean diurnal cycle in the NCA region for the same period at 27 km and 9 km horizontal grid spacing and 3-hourly output, and at 3 km only for the month of January 2010 in the Cuzco valleys. Sensitivity experiments were also performed to investigate the effect of the topography on the observed rainfall patterns. The model reproduces the main diurnal precipitation features. The main atmospheric processes identified are: (1) the presence of a regional-scale cyclonic circulation strengthening during the afternoon, (2) diurnal thermally driven circulations at local scale, including upslope (downslope) wind and moisture transport during the day (night), (3) channelization of the upslope moisture transport from the Amazon along the Apurimac valleys toward the western part of the cordillera.

Synoptic Drivers of Precipitation in the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, L.; Hudson, S.; Graham, R.; Renwick, J. A.

2017-12-01

Precipitation in the Arctic has been shown to be increasing in recent decades, from both observational and modelling studies, with largest trends seen in autumn and winter. This trend is attributed to a combination of the warming atmosphere and reduced sea ice extent. The seasonality of precipitation in the Arctic is important as it largely determines whether the precipitation falls as snow or rain. This study assesses the spatial and temporal variability of the synoptic drivers of precipitation in the Atlantic (European) sector of the Arctic. This region of the Arctic is of particular interest as it has the largest inter-annual variability in sea ice extent and is the primary pathway for moisture transport into the Arctic from lower latitudes. This study uses the ECMWF ERA-I reanalysis total precipitation to compare to long-term precipitation observations from Ny Ålesund, Svalbard to show that the reanalysis captures the synoptic variability of precipitation well and that most precipitation in this region is synoptically driven. The annual variability of precipitation in the Atlantic Arctic shows strong regionality. In the Svalbard and Barents Sea region, most of the annual total precipitation occurs during autumn and winter (Oct-Mar) (>60% of annual total), while the high-Arctic (> 80N) and Kara Sea receives most of the annual precipitation ( 60% of annual total) during summer (July-Sept). Using a synoptic classification developed for this region, this study shows that winter precipitation is driven by winter cyclone occurrence, with strong correlations to the AO and NAO indices. High precipitation over Svalbard is also strongly correlated with the Scandinavian blocking pattern, which produces a southerly flow in the Greenland Sea/Svalbard area. An increasing occurrence of these synoptic patterns are seen for winter months (Nov and Jan), which may explain much of the observed winter increase in precipitation.

Land- and sea-surface impacts on local coastal breezes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veron, D. E.; Hughes, C.; Gilchrist, J.; Lodise, J.; Goldman, W.

2014-12-01

The state of Delaware has seen significant increases in population along the coastline in the past three decades. With this increase in population have come changes to the land surface, as forest and farmland has been converted to residential and commercial purposes, causing changes in the surface roughness, temperature, and land-atmosphere fluxes. There is also a semi-permanent upwelling center in the spring and summer outside the Delaware Bay mouth that significantly changes the structure of the sea surface temperature both inside and outside the Bay. Through a series of high resolution modeling and observational studies, we have determined that in cases of strong synoptic forcing, the impact of the land-surface on the boundary layer properties can be advected offshore, creating a false coastline and modifying the location and timing of the sea breeze circulation. In cases of weak synoptic forcing, the influence of the upwelling and the tidal circulation of the Delaware Bay waters can greatly change the location, strength, and penetration of the sea breeze. Understanding the importance of local variability in the surface-atmosphere interactions on the sea breeze can lead to improved prediction of sea breeze onset, penetration, and duration which is important for monitoring air quality and developing offshore wind power production.

A Coupled Ocean General Circulation, Biogeochemical, and Radiative Model of the Global Oceans: Seasonal Distributions of Ocean Chlorophyll and Nutrients

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.; Busalacchi, Antonio (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

A coupled ocean general circulation, biogeochemical, and radiative model was constructed to evaluate and understand the nature of seasonal variability of chlorophyll and nutrients in the global oceans. Biogeochemical processes in the model are determined from the influences of circulation and turbulence dynamics, irradiance availability. and the interactions among three functional phytoplankton groups (diatoms. chlorophytes, and picoplankton) and three nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, and silicate). Basin scale (greater than 1000 km) model chlorophyll results are in overall agreement with CZCS pigments in many global regions. Seasonal variability observed in the CZCS is also represented in the model. Synoptic scale (100-1000 km) comparisons of imagery are generally in conformance although occasional departures are apparent. Model nitrate distributions agree with in situ data, including seasonal dynamics, except for the equatorial Atlantic. The overall agreement of the model with satellite and in situ data sources indicates that the model dynamics offer a reasonably realistic simulation of phytoplankton and nutrient dynamics on synoptic scales. This is especially true given that initial conditions are homogenous chlorophyll fields. The success of the model in producing a reasonable representation of chlorophyll and nutrient distributions and seasonal variability in the global oceans is attributed to the application of a generalized, processes-driven approach as opposed to regional parameterization and the existence of multiple phytoplankton groups with different physiological and physical properties. These factors enable the model to simultaneously represent many aspects of the great diversity of physical, biological, chemical, and radiative environments encountered in the global oceans.

Mesoscale Predictability and Error Growth in Short Range Ensemble Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gingrich, Mark

Although it was originally suggested that small-scale, unresolved errors corrupt forecasts at all scales through an inverse error cascade, some authors have proposed that those mesoscale circulations resulting from stationary forcing on the larger scale may inherit the predictability of the large-scale motions. Further, the relative contributions of large- and small-scale uncertainties in producing error growth in the mesoscales remain largely unknown. Here, 100 member ensemble forecasts are initialized from an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to simulate two winter storms impacting the East Coast of the United States in 2010. Four verification metrics are considered: the local snow water equivalence, total liquid water, and 850 hPa temperatures representing mesoscale features; and the sea level pressure field representing a synoptic feature. It is found that while the predictability of the mesoscale features can be tied to the synoptic forecast, significant uncertainty existed on the synoptic scale at lead times as short as 18 hours. Therefore, mesoscale details remained uncertain in both storms due to uncertainties at the large scale. Additionally, the ensemble perturbation kinetic energy did not show an appreciable upscale propagation of error for either case. Instead, the initial condition perturbations from the cycling EnKF were maximized at large scales and immediately amplified at all scales without requiring initial upscale propagation. This suggests that relatively small errors in the synoptic-scale initialization may have more importance in limiting predictability than errors in the unresolved, small-scale initial conditions.

Evaluating synoptic systems in the CMIP5 climate models over the Australian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibson, Peter B.; Uotila, Petteri; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Pitman, Andrew J.

2016-10-01

Climate models are our principal tool for generating the projections used to inform climate change policy. Our confidence in projections depends, in part, on how realistically they simulate present day climate and associated variability over a range of time scales. Traditionally, climate models are less commonly assessed at time scales relevant to daily weather systems. Here we explore the utility of a self-organizing maps (SOMs) procedure for evaluating the frequency, persistence and transitions of daily synoptic systems in the Australian region simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models. In terms of skill in simulating the climatological frequency of synoptic systems, large spread was observed between models. A positive association between all metrics was found, implying that relative skill in simulating the persistence and transitions of systems is related to skill in simulating the climatological frequency. Considering all models and metrics collectively, model performance was found to be related to model horizontal resolution but unrelated to vertical resolution or representation of the stratosphere. In terms of the SOM procedure, the timespan over which evaluation was performed had some influence on model performance skill measures, as did the number of circulation types examined. These findings have implications for selecting models most useful for future projections over the Australian region, particularly for projections related to synoptic scale processes and phenomena. More broadly, this study has demonstrated the utility of the SOMs procedure in providing a process-based evaluation of climate models.

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Controls in the Western Atlantic Basin during the First Half of the Nineteenth Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mock, C. J.; Dodds, S. F.; Rodgers, M. D.; Patwardhan, A.

2008-12-01

This study describes new comprehensive reconstructions of individual Western Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones for each year of the first half of the nineteenth century in the Western Atlantic Basin that are directly compatible and supplement the National Hurricane Center's HURDAT (Atlantic basin hurricane database). Data used for reconstructing tropical cyclones come from ship logbooks, ship protests, diaries, newspapers, and early instrumental records from more than 50 different archival repositories in the United States and the United Kingdom. Tropical cyclone strength was discriminated among tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and non-tropical lows at least at tropical storm strength. The results detail the characteristics of several hundred storms, many of them being newly documented, and tracks for all storms were mapped. Overall, prominent active periods of tropical cyclones are evident along the western Atlantic Ocean in the 1830s but Caribbean and Gulf coasts exhibit active periods as being more evident in the 1810s and 1820s. Differences in decadal variations were even more pronounced when examining time series of activity at the statewide scale. High resolution paleoclimate and historical instrumental records of the AMO, NAO, ENSO, Atlantic SSTs, West African rainfall, and volcanic activity explain how different modes in these forcing mechanisms may explain some of the multidecadal and interannual variations. The early nineteenth century active hurricane activity appears to be particularly unique in corresponding with a low (negative index) AMO period, and as they relate to particular synoptic-scale patterns in the latter part of the Little Ice Age. Model simulations offer some hypotheses on such patterns, perhaps suggesting increased baroclinic-related storms and a slight later possible shift in the seasonal peak of tropical cyclones for some areas at times. Some years, such as 1806, 1837, 1838, 1842, and 1846 have particularly very active seasons, and we critically examined the synoptic-scale circulation responsible and also related some of the storms as they relate to potential modern analogs.

Global Autocorrelation Scales of the Partial Pressure of Oceanic CO2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Zhen; Adamec, David; Takahashi, Taro; Sutherland, Stewart C.

2004-01-01

A global database of approximately 1.7 million observations of the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in surface ocean waters (pCO2) collected between 1970 and 2003 is used to estimate its spatial autocorrelation structure. The patterns of the lag distance where the autocorrelation exceeds 0.8 is similar to patterns in the spatial distribution of the first baroclinic Rossby radius of deformation indicating that ocean circulation processes play a significant role in determining the spatial variability of pCO2. For example, the global maximum of the distance at which autocorrelations exceed 0.8 averages about 140 km in the equatorial Pacific. Also, the lag distance at which the autocorrelation exceed 0.8 is greater in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream than it is near the Kuroshio, approximately 50 km near the Gulf Stream as opposed to 20 km near the Kuroshio. Separate calculations for times when the sun is north and south of the equator revealed no obvious seasonal dependence of the spatial autocorrelation scales. The pCO2 measurements at Ocean Weather Station (OWS) 'P', in the eastern subarctic Pacific (50 N, 145 W) is the only fixed location where an uninterrupted time series of sufficient length exists to calculate a meaningful temporal autocorrelation function for lags greater than a few days. The estimated temporal autocorrelation function at OWS 'P', is highly variable. A spectral analysis of the longest four pCO2 time series indicates a high level of variability occurring over periods from the atmospheric synoptic to the maximum length of the time series, in this case 42 days. It is likely that a relative peak in variability with a period of 3-6 days is related to atmospheric synoptic period variability and ocean mixing events due to wind stirring. However, the short length of available time series makes identifying temporal relationships between pCO2 and atmospheric or ocean processes problematic.

Prediction of PM10 grades in Seoul, Korea using a neural network model based on synoptic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hur, S. K.; Oh, H. R.; Ho, C. H.; Kim, J.; Song, C. K.; Chang, L. S.; Lee, J. B.

2016-12-01

As of November 2014, the Korean Ministry of Environment (KME) started forecasting the level of ambient particulate matter with diameters ≤ 10 μm (PM10) as four grades: low (PM10 ≤ 30 μg m-3), moderate (30 < PM10 ≤ 80 μg m-3), high (80 < PM10 ≤ 150 μg m-3), and very high (PM10 > 150 μg m-3). Due to short history of forecast, overall performance of the operational forecasting system and its hit rate for the four PM10 grades are difficult to evaluate. In attempt to provide a statistical reference for the current air quality forecasting system, we hindcasted the four PM10 grades for the cold seasons (October-March) of 2001-2014 in Seoul, Korea using a neural network model based on the synoptic patterns of meteorological fields such as geopotential height, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind. In the form of cosine similarity, the distinctive synoptic patterns for each PM10 grades are well quantified as predictors to train the neural network model. Using these fields as predictors and considering the PM10 concentration in Seoul from the day before prediction as an additional predictor, an overall hit rate of 69% was achieved; the hit rates for the low, moderate, high, and very high PM10 grades were 33%, 83%, 45%, and 33%, respectively. This study reveals that the synoptic patterns of meteorological fields are useful predictors for the identification of favorable conditions for each PM10 grade, and the associated transboundary transport and local accumulation of PM10 from the industrialized regions of China. Consequently, the assessments of predictability obtained from the neural network model in this study are reliable to use as a statistical reference for the current air quality forecasting system.

Synoptic sampling and principal components analysis to identify sources of water and metals to an acid mine drainage stream.

PubMed

Byrne, Patrick; Runkel, Robert L; Walton-Day, Katherine

2017-07-01

Combining the synoptic mass balance approach with principal components analysis (PCA) can be an effective method for discretising the chemistry of inflows and source areas in watersheds where contamination is diffuse in nature and/or complicated by groundwater interactions. This paper presents a field-scale study in which synoptic sampling and PCA are employed in a mineralized watershed (Lion Creek, Colorado, USA) under low flow conditions to (i) quantify the impacts of mining activity on stream water quality; (ii) quantify the spatial pattern of constituent loading; and (iii) identify inflow sources most responsible for observed changes in stream chemistry and constituent loading. Several of the constituents investigated (Al, Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn) fail to meet chronic aquatic life standards along most of the study reach. The spatial pattern of constituent loading suggests four primary sources of contamination under low flow conditions. Three of these sources are associated with acidic (pH <3.1) seeps that enter along the left bank of Lion Creek. Investigation of inflow water (trace metal and major ion) chemistry using PCA suggests a hydraulic connection between many of the left bank inflows and mine water in the Minnesota Mine shaft located to the north-east of the river channel. In addition, water chemistry data during a rainfall-runoff event suggests the spatial pattern of constituent loading may be modified during rainfall due to dissolution of efflorescent salts or erosion of streamside tailings. These data point to the complexity of contaminant mobilisation processes and constituent loading in mining-affected watersheds but the combined synoptic sampling and PCA approach enables a conceptual model of contaminant dynamics to be developed to inform remediation.

Synoptic sampling and principal components analysis to identify sources of water and metals to an acid mine drainage stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Byrne, Patrick; Runkel, Robert L.; Walton-Day, Katie

2017-01-01

Combining the synoptic mass balance approach with principal components analysis (PCA) can be an effective method for discretising the chemistry of inflows and source areas in watersheds where contamination is diffuse in nature and/or complicated by groundwater interactions. This paper presents a field-scale study in which synoptic sampling and PCA are employed in a mineralized watershed (Lion Creek, Colorado, USA) under low flow conditions to (i) quantify the impacts of mining activity on stream water quality; (ii) quantify the spatial pattern of constituent loading; and (iii) identify inflow sources most responsible for observed changes in stream chemistry and constituent loading. Several of the constituents investigated (Al, Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn) fail to meet chronic aquatic life standards along most of the study reach. The spatial pattern of constituent loading suggests four primary sources of contamination under low flow conditions. Three of these sources are associated with acidic (pH <3.1) seeps that enter along the left bank of Lion Creek. Investigation of inflow water (trace metal and major ion) chemistry using PCA suggests a hydraulic connection between many of the left bank inflows and mine water in the Minnesota Mine shaft located to the north-east of the river channel. In addition, water chemistry data during a rainfall-runoff event suggests the spatial pattern of constituent loading may be modified during rainfall due to dissolution of efflorescent salts or erosion of streamside tailings. These data point to the complexity of contaminant mobilisation processes and constituent loading in mining-affected watersheds but the combined synoptic sampling and PCA approach enables a conceptual model of contaminant dynamics to be developed to inform remediation.

A Regional Model Study of Synoptic Features Over West Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Saloum, Mahaman; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Synoptic weather features over West Africa were studied in simulations by the regional simulation model (RM) at the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies. These pioneering simulations represent the beginning of an effort to adapt regional models for weather and climate prediction over West Africa. The RM uses a cartesian grid with 50 km horizontal resolution and fifteen vertical levels. An ensemble of four simulations was forced with lateral boundary conditions from ECMWF global analyses for the period 8-22 August 1988. The simulated mid-tropospheric circulation includes the skillful development and movement of several African wave disturbances. Wavelet analysis of mid-tropospheric winds detected a dominant periodicity of about 4 days and a secondary periodicity of 5-8 days. Spatial distributions of RM precipitation and precipitation time series were validated against daily rain gauge measurements and ISCCP satellite infrared cloud imagery. The time-space distribution of simulated precipitation was made more realistic by combining the ECMWR initial conditions with a 24-hr spin-up of the moisture field and also by damping high frequency gravity waves by dynamic initialization. Model precipitation "forecasts" over the Central Sahel were correlated with observations for about three days, but reinitializing with observed data on day 5 resulted in a dramatic improvement in the precipitation validation over the remaining 9 days. Results imply that information via the lateral boundary conditions is not always sufficient to minimize departures between simulated and actual precipitation patterns for more than several days. In addition, there was some evidence that the new initialization may increase the simulations' sensitivity to the quality of lateral boundary conditions.

Sampling theory for asynoptic satellite observations. I Space-time spectra, resolution, and aliasing. II - Fast Fourier synoptic mapping

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salby, M. L.

1982-01-01

An evaluation of the information content of asynoptic data taken in the form of nadir sonde and limb scan observations is presented, and a one-to-one correspondence is established between the alias-free data and twice-daily synoptic maps. Attention is given to space and time limitations of sampling and the orbital geometry is discussed. The sampling pattern is demonstrated to determine unique space-time spectra at all wavenumbers and frequencies. Spectral resolution and aliasing are explored, while restrictions on sampling and information content are defined. It is noted that irregular sampling at high latitudes produces spurious contamination effects. An Asynoptic Sampling Theorem is thereby formulated, as is a Synoptic Retrieval Theorem, in the second part of the article. In the latter, a procedure is developed for retrieving the unique correspondence between the asymptotic data and the synoptic maps. Applications examples are provided using data from the Nimbus-6 satellite.

Assessing Seasonal Transport and Deposition of Agricultural Emissions in Eastern North Carolina, U.S.A.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhome, J. R.; Niyogi, D. D. S.; Raman, S.

- There is an increasing interest regarding the fate of nitrogenous compounds emitted from agricultural activities in the southeastern United States. Varying climate, topography and proximity to the Atlantic Ocean particularly complicates the problem. An increased understanding of the interaction of synoptic scale flow with mesoscale circulations would constitute a significant improvement in the assessment of regional scale transport and deposition potential. This knowledge is necessary to facilitate current and future modeling attempts in the region as well as for planning future monitoring sites to develop a cohesive regional policy for the abatement strategies. The eastern portion of North Carolina is used as a case example due to its high, localized emission of nitrogen compounds from agricultural waste. Three periods: July 2-7, 1998, October 5-11, 1998, and December 12-19, 1998, corresponding to three different seasons were studied. Surface wind and thermodynamic patterns were analyzed using surface observing stations and archived-model analysis results centered over eastern North Carolina. Diurnal and seasonal patterns were identified for dispersion and concentration values obtained using an air pollution transport and dispersion model. This mesoscale information was used to draw qualitative conclusions regarding the possible trends and deviations in the dynamic trajectories as well as the resulting near-surface concentrations and deposition potential in eastern North Carolina. Results show that highly variable seasonal and diurnal atmospheric circulations characterize the study domain. These variations can significantly impact the transport and fate of pollutants released in this region. Generally, summer provides the highest potential for localized deposition, while fall can provide opportunity for long-range transport. The results also suggest that mean climatological or seasonally averaged flow patterns may not be sufficient for analyzing the fate of the agricultural releases in this region. At the very least, mean and variance based analysis is required to capture the climatology of the dispersion and deposition patterns. These patterns in eastern North Carolina appear to be sensitive to the strength and location of air mass boundaries along the coastal plain, indicating diverse scale interactions affecting the variability and uncertainty in the regional pollutant transport.

Characterizing the Influence of the General Circulation on Marine Boundary Layer Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rozendaal, Margaret A.; Rossow, William B.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The seasonal and intraseasonal variability of boundary layer cloud in the subtropical eastern oceans are studied using combined data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis. Spectral analysis reveals that most of the time variability of cloud properties occurs on seasonal to annual time scales. The variance decreases one to two orders of magnitude for each decade of time scale decrease, indicating that daily to monthly time scales have smaller, but non-negligible variability. The length of these dominant time scales suggests that the majority of the variability is influenced by the general circulation and its interaction with boundary layer turbulence, rather than a product of boundary layer turbulence alone. Previous datasets have lacked the necessary resolution in either time or in space to properly characterize variability on synoptic scales; this is remedied by using global satellite-retrieved cloud properties. We characterize the intraseasonal subtropical cloud variability in both hemispheres and in different seasons. In addition to cloud fraction, we examine variability of cloud optical thickness - cloud top pressure frequency distributions. Despite the large concentration of research on the variability of Northern Hemisphere (NH) regions during summer, it is noted that the largest amplitude intraseasonal variability in the NH regions occurs during local winter. The effect of intraseasonal variability on the calculation and interpretation of seasonal results is investigated. Decreases in seasonally averaged cloud cover, optical thickness and cloud top pressure from the May-through-September season to the November-through-March season are most apparent in the NH regions. Further analysis indicates that these changes are due to an increase in frequency, but a decrease in the persistence of synoptic events. In addition, changes in cloud top pressure and optical thickness characteristics from the summer to winter seasons indicate that the NH subtropics undergo a change in dynamic regime with season. This change appears in the cloud fields as a shift from the more commonly seen lower-altitude, thicker optical thickness clouds to higher-altitude, thinner clouds. The latter cloud-type is associated with the lower sea level pressure, upward vertical velocity phase of the synoptic wave. Intraseasonal changes in cloud properties in the Southern Hemisphere and NH summer are much smaller in amplitude. Although they also appear to be linked to changes in the large-scale dynamics, similarly to NH winter variations, the relationships are more ambiguous due to the small amplitudes and longer time scales. We attempt to interpret some of these relationships using the results of the Betts and Ridgway (1989) box model. However, these results cannot consistently explain the patterns when results from all regions are considered, implying that this model may not adequately explain all the processes involved in the variability.

Visualizing a possible atmospheric teleconnection associated with UK floods in autumn 2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pall, P.; Bensema, K.; Stone, D.; Wehner, M. F.; Bethel, W.; Joy, K.

2012-12-01

Severe floods occurred across England and Wales during the record-wet autumn of the year 2000. Recently Pall et al. (2011) demonstrated that the risk of such floods occurring at that time substantially increased as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, and that the synoptic weather system associated with the floods was a common but anomalously strong 'Scandinavia' atmospheric circulation pattern (a Rossby-wave-like train of tropospheric anomalies in geopotential height, extending from the subtropical Atlantic across Eurasia, with a cyclone over the UK and a strong anticyclone over Scandinavia). Blackburn and Hoskins (2001) suggest that this pattern was itself catalyzed by an anomalous upper-tropospheric flow of air: originating with an ascent of air due to convection over warm sea surface temperatures in the western Tropical Pacific, and ending in a descent of air over the Amazon in the proposed source region of the Scandinavia pattern. However, evidence for this so-called 'teleconnection' is not entirely clear in the idealised climate models they used. Here we use visualization techniques to search for this teleconnection in the simulations generated with the more comprehensive seasonal-forecast-resolution climate model of Pall et al. (2011) -- by identifying anomalous streamflow patterns and using the UV-CDAT software developed at Berkeley Lab to do so. Furthermore, since several thousand simulations were generated (in order to capture the rare flood event), totaling hundreds of GB in size, we use paralleisation techniques to perform this search efficiently.

The Asian-Bering-North American teleconnection: seasonality, maintenance, and climate impact on North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Bin; Lin, H.; Wu, Z. W.; Merryfield, W. J.

2018-03-01

The Asian-Bering-North American (ABNA) teleconnection index is constructed from the normalized 500-hPa geopotential field by excluding the Pacific-North American pattern contribution. The ABNA pattern features a zonally elongated wavetrain originating from North Asia and flowing downstream across Bering Sea and Strait towards North America. The large-scale teleconnection is a year-round phenomenon that displays strong seasonality with the peak variability in winter. North American surface temperature and temperature extremes, including warm days and nights as well as cold days and nights, are significantly controlled by this teleconnection. The ABNA pattern has an equivalent barotropic structure in the troposphere and is supported by synoptic-scale eddy forcing in the upper troposphere. Its associated sea surface temperature anomalies exhibit a horseshoe-shaped structure in the North Pacific, most prominent in winter, which is driven by atmospheric circulation anomalies. The snow cover anomalies over the West Siberian plain and Central Siberian Plateau in autumn and spring and over southern Siberia in winter may act as a forcing influence on the ABNA pattern. The snow forcing influence in winter and spring can be traced back to the preceding season, which provides a predictability source for this teleconnection and for North American temperature variability. The ABNA associated energy budget is dominated by surface longwave radiation anomalies year-round, with the temperature anomalies supported by anomalous downward longwave radiation and damped by upward longwave radiation at the surface.

The exceptionally wet year of 2014 over Greece: a statistical and synoptical-atmospheric analysis over the region of Thessaloniki

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolika, Konstantia; Maheras, Panagiotis; Anagnostopoulou, Christina

2018-05-01

The highest rainfall totals (912.2 mm) and the largest number of raindays (133 days), since 1958, were recorded in Thessaloniki during the year of 2014. Extreme precipitation heights were also observed on a seasonal, monthly and daily basis. The examined year presented the highest daily rainfall intensity, the maximum daily precipitation and the largest number of heavy precipitation days (greater than 10 mm), and it also exceeded the previous amounts of precipitation of very wet (95th percentile) and extremely wet (99th percentile) days. According to the automatic circulation type classification scheme that was used, it was found that during this exceptionally wet year, the frequency of occurrence of cyclonic types at the near surface geopotential level increases, while the same types decreased at a higher atmospheric level (500 hPa). The prevailing type was type C which is located at the centre of the study area (Greece), but several other cyclonic types changed during this year not only their frequency but also their percentage of rainfall as well as their daily precipitation intensity. It should be highlighted that these findings differentiated on the seasonal-scale analysis. Moreover, out of the three teleconnection patterns that were examined (Scandinavian Pattern, Eastern Mediterranean Teleconnection Pattern and North Sea-Caspian Pattern), the Scandinavian one (SCAND) was detected during the most of the months of 2014 meaning that it was highly associated with intense precipitation over Greece.

A Synoptic View of the Ventilation and Circulation of Antarctic Bottom Water from Chlorofluorocarbons and Natural Tracers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purkey, Sarah G.; Smethie, William M.; Gebbie, Geoffrey; Gordon, Arnold L.; Sonnerup, Rolf E.; Warner, Mark J.; Bullister, John L.

2018-01-01

Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is the coldest, densest, most prolific water mass in the global ocean. AABW forms at several distinct regions along the Antarctic coast and feeds into the bottom limb of the meridional overturning circulation, filling most of the global deep ocean. AABW has warmed, freshened, and declined in volume around the globe in recent decades, which has implications for the global heat and sea level rise budgets. Over the past three decades, the use of tracers, especially time-varying tracers such as chlorofluorocarbons, has been essential to our understanding of the formation, circulation, and variability of AABW. Here, we review three decades of temperature, salinity, and tracer data and analysis that have led to our current knowledge of AABW and how the southern component of deep-ocean ventilation is changing with time.

A Synoptic View of the Ventilation and Circulation of Antarctic Bottom Water from Chlorofluorocarbons and Natural Tracers.

PubMed

Purkey, Sarah G; Smethie, William M; Gebbie, Geoffrey; Gordon, Arnold L; Sonnerup, Rolf E; Warner, Mark J; Bullister, John L

2018-01-03

Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is the coldest, densest, most prolific water mass in the global ocean. AABW forms at several distinct regions along the Antarctic coast and feeds into the bottom limb of the meridional overturning circulation, filling most of the global deep ocean. AABW has warmed, freshened, and declined in volume around the globe in recent decades, which has implications for the global heat and sea level rise budgets. Over the past three decades, the use of tracers, especially time-varying tracers such as chlorofluorocarbons, has been essential to our understanding of the formation, circulation, and variability of AABW. Here, we review three decades of temperature, salinity, and tracer data and analysis that have led to our current knowledge of AABW and how the southern component of deep-ocean ventilation is changing with time.

Tropical forecasting - Predictability perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shukla, J.

1989-01-01

Results are presented of classical predictability studies and forecast experiments with observed initial conditions to show the nature of initial error growth and final error equilibration for the tropics and midlatitudes, separately. It is found that the theoretical upper limit of tropical circulation predictability is far less than for midlatitudes. The error growth for a complete general circulation model is compared to a dry version of the same model in which there is no prognostic equation for moisture, and diabatic heat sources are prescribed. It is found that the growth rate of synoptic-scale errors for the dry model is significantly smaller than for the moist model, suggesting that the interactions between dynamics and moist processes are among the important causes of atmospheric flow predictability degradation. Results are then presented of numerical experiments showing that correct specification of the slowly varying boundary condition of SST produces significant improvement in the prediction of time-averaged circulation and rainfall over the tropics.

Troposphere-Stratosphere Connections in Recent Northern Winters in NASA GEOS Assimilated Datasets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pawson, Steven

2000-01-01

The northern winter stratosphere displays a wide range of interannual variability, much of which is believed to result from the response to the damping of upward-propagating waves. However, there is considerable (growing) evidence that the stratospheric state can also impact the tropospheric circulation. This issue will be examined using datasets generated in the Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. Just as the tropospheric circulation in each of these years was dominated by differing synoptic-scale structures, the stratospheric polar vortex also displayed different evolutions. The two extremes are the winter 1998/1999, when the stratosphere underwent a series of warming events (including two major warmings), and the winter 1999/2000, which was dominated by a persistent, cold polar vortex, often distorted by a dominant blocking pattern in the troposphere. This study will examine several operational and research-level versions of the DAO's systems. The 70-level-TRMM-system with a resolution of 2-by-2.5 degrees and the 48-level, 1-by-l-degree resolution ''Terra'' system were operational in 1998/1999 and 1999/2000, respectively. Research versions of the system used a 48-level, 2-by-2.5-degree configuration, which facilitates studies of the impact of vertical resolution. The study includes checks against independent datasets and error analyses, as well as the main issue of troposphere-stratosphere interactions.

Coupled Land-Atmosphere Dynamics Govern Long Duration Floods: A Pilot Study in Missouri River Basin Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najibi, N.; Lu, M.; Devineni, N.

2017-12-01

Long duration floods cause substantial damages and prolonged interruptions to water resource facilities and critical infrastructure. We present a novel generalized statistical and physical based model for flood duration with a deeper understanding of dynamically coupled nexus of the land surface wetness, effective atmospheric circulation and moisture transport/release. We applied the model on large reservoirs in the Missouri River Basin. The results indicate that the flood duration is not only a function of available moisture in the air, but also the antecedent condition of the blocking system of atmospheric pressure, resulting in enhanced moisture convergence, as well as the effectiveness of moisture condensation process leading to release. Quantifying these dynamics with a two-layer climate informed Bayesian multilevel model, we explain more than 80% variations in flood duration. The model considers the complex interaction between moisture transport, synoptic-to-large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern, and the antecedent wetness condition in the basin. Our findings suggest that synergy between a large low-pressure blocking system and a higher rate of divergent wind often triggers a long duration flood, and the prerequisite for moisture supply to trigger such event is moderate, which is more associated with magnitude than duration. In turn, this condition causes an extremely long duration flood if the surface wetness rate advancing to the flood event was already increased.

The development of a non-linear autoregressive model with exogenous input (NARX) to model climate-water clarity relationships: reconstructing a historical water clarity index for the coastal waters of the southeastern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Cameron C.; Sheridan, Scott C.; Barnes, Brian B.; Hu, Chuanmin; Pirhalla, Douglas E.; Ransibrahmanakul, Varis; Shein, Karsten

2017-10-01

The coastal waters of the southeastern USA contain important protected habitats and natural resources that are vulnerable to climate variability and singular weather events. Water clarity, strongly affected by atmospheric events, is linked to substantial environmental impacts throughout the region. To assess this relationship over the long-term, this study uses an artificial neural network-based time series modeling technique known as non-linear autoregressive models with exogenous input (NARX models) to explore the relationship between climate and a water clarity index (KDI) in this area and to reconstruct this index over a 66-year period. Results show that synoptic-scale circulation patterns, weather types, and precipitation all play roles in impacting water clarity to varying degrees in each region of the larger domain. In particular, turbid water is associated with transitional weather and cyclonic circulation in much of the study region. Overall, NARX model performance also varies—regionally, seasonally and interannually—with wintertime estimates of KDI along the West Florida Shelf correlating to the actual KDI at r > 0.70. Periods of extreme (high) KDI in this area coincide with notable El Niño events. An upward trend in extreme KDI events from 1948 to 2013 is also present across much of the Florida Gulf coast.

Patterns of cold-air drainage and microclimate in mid-latitude versus high-latitude mountains: contrasts and implications for climate change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pepin, N. C.

2009-12-01

Predictions of current spatial patterns of climate are difficult in areas of complex relief in all parts of the world, because of the interweaving influences of topography, elevation and aspect. These influences vary temporally as a result of the seasonal and diurnal cycles in radiation balance. In periods of negative energy balance, surface decoupling can occur as cold air drainage develops low-level temperature inversions, and the surface temperature regime beneath the inversion becomes divorced from free atmospheric forcing. Both the spatial scale and temporal persistence of this decoupling vary according to latitude, and although the physical processes that influence inversion formation are similar in polar areas and mid-latitude mountains, the contrasting seasonal and diurnal forcings make the end results very different. Examples are contrasted from detailed field temperature measurements (~50 sites per field area) taken over several years in areas of complex relief in the eastern Pyrenees (~42.5 deg N), the Oregon Cascades (also ~42.5 deg N) and Finnish Lapland (70 deg N and above the Arctic circle). In the former two locations decoupling is mostly diurnally driven, and small-scale topography is important in mediating the effects. Summer decoupling is brief and spatially limited, whereas winter decoupling can be more spatially extensive. There are strong relationships between synoptic conditions, as measured by objective flow indices at the 700 mb level (derived from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis fields) and the patterns of decoupling, which allow us to assess the effects of past and potential future circulation change on spatial patterns of future climate warming. In Finnish Lapland the decoupling regime most clearly approaches the mid-latitude pattern around the equinoxes when there are clear day and night periods. In winter and summer however (the polar night and polar day) with the muting of the diurnal cycle, processes are more poorly understood. Winter cold pools can develop and strengthen over days until eventually they extend over and above the topography. Strangely, there are also indistinct relationships with circulation indices at this time. While build-up can take days, destruction is often immediate and is dynamically forced. In summer, localized decoupling occurs on clear nights even though the sun is above the horizon, but micro-scale patterns are different than in mid-latitudes. The above comparison shows that polar areas are very different in their micro-temperature regimes than mid-latitude mountains and in their relationships of these regimes with circulation. Thus we expect detailed spatial patterns of climate change may be very different in the two regions.

The impact of land and sea surface variations on the Delaware sea breeze at local scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Christopher P.

The summertime climate of coastal Delaware is greatly influenced by the intensity, frequency, and location of the local sea breeze circulation. Sea breeze induced changes in temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation influence many aspects of Delaware's economy by affecting tourism, farming, air pollution density, energy usage, and the strength, and persistence of Delaware's wind resource. The sea breeze front can develop offshore or along the coastline and often creates a near surface thermal gradient in excess of 5°C. The purpose of this dissertation is to investigate the dynamics of the Delaware sea breeze with a focus on the immediate coastline using observed and modeled components, both at high resolutions (~200m). The Weather Research and Forecasting model (version 3.5) was employed over southern Delaware with 5 domains (4 levels of nesting), with resolutions ranging from 18km to 222m, for June 2013 to investigate the sensitivity of the sea breeze to land and sea surface variations. The land surface was modified in the model to improve the resolution, which led to the addition of land surface along the coastline and accounted for recent urban development. Nine-day composites of satellite sea surface temperatures were ingested into the model and an in-house SST forcing dataset was developed to account for spatial SST variation within the inland bays. Simulations, which include the modified land surface, introduce a distinct secondary atmospheric circulation across the coastline of Rehoboth Bay when synoptic offshore wind flow is weak. Model runs using high spatial- and temporal-resolution satellite sea surface temperatures over the ocean indicate that the sea breeze landfall time is sensitive to the SST when the circulation develops offshore. During the summer of 2013 a field campaign was conducted in the coastal locations of Rehoboth Beach, DE and Cape Henlopen, DE. At each location, a series of eleven small, autonomous thermo-sensors (i-buttons) were placed along 1-km transects oriented perpendicular to the coastline where each sensor recorded temperatures at five-minute intervals. This novel approach allows for detailed characterization of the sea breeze front development over the immediate coastline not seen in previous studies. These observations provide evidence of significant variability in frontal propagation (advancing, stalling, and retrograding) within the first kilometer of the coast. Results from this observational study indicate that the land surface has the largest effect on the frontal location when the synoptic winds have a strong offshore component, which forces the sea breeze front to move slowly through the region. When this happens, the frequency of occurrence and sea breeze frontal speed decreases consistently across the first 500 m of Rehoboth Beach, after which, the differences become insignificant. At Cape Henlopen the decrease in intensity across the transect is much less evident and the reduction in frequency does not occur until after the front is 500 m from the coast. Under these conditions at Rehoboth Beach, the near surface air behind the front warms due to the land surface which, along with the large surface friction component of the urbanized land surface, causes the front to slow as it traverses the region. Observation and modeling results suggest that the influence of variations in the land and sea surface on the sea breeze circulation is complex and highly dependent on the regional synoptic wind regime. This result inspired the development of a sea breeze prediction algorithm using a generalized linear regression model which, incorporated real-time synoptic conditions to forecast the likelihood of a sea breeze front passing through a coastal station. The forecast skill increases through the morning hours after sunrise. The inland synoptic wind direction is the most influential variable utilized by the algorithm. Such a model could be enhanced to forecast local temperature with coonfidence, which could be useful in an economic or energy usage model.

A synoptic climatology for forest fires in the NE US and future implications for GCM simulations

Treesearch

Yan Qing; Ronald Sabo; Yiqiang Wu; J.Y. Zhu

1994-01-01

We studied surface-pressure patterns corresponding to reduced precipitation, high evaporation potential, and enhanced forest-fire danger for West Virginia, which experienced extensive forest-fire damage in November 1987. From five years of daily weather maps we identified eight weather patterns that describe distinctive flow situations throughout the year. Map patterns...

Diurnal and seasonal variations in surface methane at a tropical coastal station: Role of mesoscale meteorology.

PubMed

Kavitha, M; Nair, Prabha R; Girach, I A; Aneesh, S; Sijikumar, S; Renju, R

2018-08-01

In view of the large uncertainties in the methane (CH 4 ) emission estimates and the large spatial gaps in its measurements, studies on near-surface CH 4 on regional basis become highly relevant. This paper presents the first time observational results of a study on the impacts of mesoscale meteorology on the temporal variations of near-surface CH 4 at a tropical coastal station, in India. It is based on the in-situ measurements conducted during January 2014 to August 2016, using an on-line CH 4 analyzer working on the principle of gas chromatography. The diurnal variation shows a daytime low (1898-1925ppbv) and nighttime high (1936-2022ppbv) extending till early morning hours. These changes are closely associated with the mesoscale circulations, namely Sea Breeze (SB) and Land Breeze (LB), as obtained through the meteorological observations, WRF simulations of the circulations and the diurnal variation of boundary layer height as observed by the Microwave Radiometer Profiler. The diurnal enhancement always coincides with the onset of LB. Several cases of different onset timings of LB were examined and results presented. The CH 4 mixing ratio also exhibits significant seasonal patterns being maximum in winter and minimum in pre-monsoon/monsoon with significant inter-annual variations, which is also reflected in diurnal patterns, and are associated with changing synoptic meteorology. This paper also presents an analysis of in-situ measured near-surface CH 4 , column averaged and upper tropospheric CH 4 retrieved by Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) onboard Earth Observing System (EOS)/Aqua which gives insight into the vertical distribution of the CH 4 over the location. An attempt is also made to estimate the instantaneous radiative forcing for the measured CH 4 mixing ratio. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Meteorological Situations Favouring the Development of Dust Plumes over Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schepanski, K.; Szodry, K.

2017-12-01

The knowledge on mineral dust emitted at high latitudes is limited, but its impact on the polar environments is divers. Within a warming climate, dust emitted from regions in cold climates is expected to increase due to the retreat of the ice sheet and increasing melting rates. Therefore, and for its extensive impacts on different aspects of the climate system, a better understanding of the atmospheric dust life-cycle at high latitudes/cold climates in general, and the spatio-temporal distribution of dust sources in particular, are essential. At high-latitudes, glacio-fluvial sediments as found on river flood plains e.g. supplied by glaciers are prone to wind erosion when dry and bare. In case of the occurrence of strong winds, sediments are blown out and dust plumes develop. As dust uplift is controlled by soil surface characteristics, the availability of suitable sediments, and atmospheric conditions, an interannual variability in dust source activity is expected. We investigated atmospheric circulation patterns that favour the development of dust plumes over Iceland, which presents a well-known dust source at high latitudes. Using the atmosphere model COSMO (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling), we analysed the wind speed distribution over the Iceland region for identified and documented dust cases. As one outcome of the study, the position of the Icelandic low, the anticyclones located over Northern Europe, and the resulting pressure gradients are of particular relevance. The interaction of the synoptic-scale winds with the Icelandic orography may locally enhance the wind speeds and thus foster local dust emission. Results from this study suggest that the atmospheric circulation determined by the pressure pattern is of particular relevance for the formation of dust plumes entering the North Atlantic.

Atmospheric circulation and sounding-derived parameters associated with thunderstorm occurrence in Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolendowicz, Leszek; Taszarek, Mateusz; Czernecki, Bartosz

2017-07-01

The main objective of this study is to examine the influence of atmospheric circulation patterns and sounding-derived parameters on thunderstorm occurrence in Central Europe. Thunderstorm activity tends to increase as one moves from the north to the south of the research area. Maximal thunderstorm occurrence is observed in the summer months, while between October and March such activity is much lower. Thunderstorms are also more frequent in spring than in autumn. In the warm season, the occurrence of thunderstorm is associated with the presence of a trough associated with a low located over the North Sea and Scandinavia. In the cold season, the synoptic pattern indicates a strong zonal flow from the west with significantly higher horizontal pressure gradient compared to the warm season. Thunderstorms are more likely to form when the boundary layer's mixing ratios are higher than 8 g kg- 1. Deep convection is also more likely to occur when the vertical temperature lapse rates (between 800 and 500 hPa pressure layers) exceed 6 °C km- 1. During the cold season, considerably higher lapse rates are needed to produce thunderstorms. The values obtained for the convective available potential energy indicate that at least 50 J kg- 1 is needed to produce a thunderstorm during wintertime and 125 J kg- 1 during summertime. Cold season thunderstorms are formed with a lower instability but with a more dynamic wind field having an average value of deep layer shear that exceeds 20 ms- 1. The best parameter to distinguish thunderstorm from non-thunderstorm days for both winter and summer months is a combination of the square root of the convective available potential energy multiplied by the deep layer shear.

Agricultural Drought Transition Periods In the United States Corn Belt Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiraldi, Nicholas J.

Agricultural drought in the U.S. Corn Belt region (CBR) has tremendous global socioeconomic implications. Unfortunately, the weather and climate factors that contribute to transition events toward or away from such droughts, and how well those factors are predicted, are poorly understood. This dissertation focuses on the atmospheric circulation signals associated with agricultural drought transitions periods in the CBR that evolve over 20 and 60 days, and how well those circulation signals are predicted on seasonal to sub-seasonal time scales. Results show that amplification of an intraseasonal Rossby wave train across the Pacific Ocean into North America, which occurs coincident with intraseasonal tropical convection on its equatorward side, triggers these transition events, not shifts in the low frequency base state. This result is confirmed through composite analysis, trajectory analysis and a vertically integrated moisture budget. Trajectory analysis reveals similar source regions for air parcels associated with drought development and breakdown, but with a shift toward more parcels originating over the Gulf of Mexico during transitions away from drought. The primary result from the vertically integrated moisture budget demonstrates that advection and convergence of moisture on intraseasonal time scales dominates during these transitions. The primary conclusion drawn is that weather events are the primary driver of agricultural drought transitions occurring over 20 and 60 days. The seasonal to sub-seasonal hindcast dataset is used to investigate the prediction of the low frequency, intraseasonal and synoptic circulation patterns associated with 20 and 60-day drought transition periods. The forecast models assessed are the European Centre for Medium Range Prediction (ECMWF), National Center for Environment Prediction Climate Forecast System (NCEP) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). Results demonstrate that ECMWF and NCEP are not skillful in predicting the patterns associated with 20-day agricultural drought onset and decay, but have some skill during 60-day agricultural drought onset and decay events at lead F360-F480. BoM was not skillful in predicting the circulation patterns associated with either type of drought transition. Finally, a regression model is used to predict 30-day forward looking standardized precipitation anomalies in the CBR, which leverages lowpass and intraseasonal filtered geopotential height anomalies at 200 hPa as predictors. The statistical model is more skillful than climatology in predicting 1 to 30, through 27 to 57 day standardized precipitation anomalies during July, as measured by root mean square error. The regression model also is skillful in predicting the directional skew (above or below normal) of the forward looking standardized precipitation anomalies.

The Relationship Between Anomalous Presummer Extreme Rainfall Over South China and Synoptic Disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ling; Luo, Yali; Zhang, Da-Lin

2018-04-01

A spectral analysis of daily rainfall data has been performed to investigate extreme rainfall events in south China during the presummer rainy seasons between 1998 and 2015 (excluding 1999, 2006, 2011, and 2014). The results reveal a dominant frequency mode at the synoptic scale with pronounced positive rainfall anomalies. By analyzing the synoptic-scale bandpass-filtered anomalous circulations, 24 extreme rainfall episodes (defined as those with a daily rainfall amount in the top 5%) are categorized into "cyclone" (15) and "trough" (8) types, with the remaining events as an "anticyclone" type, according to the primary anomalous weather system contributing to each extreme rainfall episode. The 15 cyclone-type episodes are further separated into (11) lower- and (4) upper-tropospheric migratory anomalies. An analysis of their anomalous fields shows that both types could be traced back to the generation of cyclonic anomalies downstream of the Tibetan Plateau, except for two episodes of lower-tropospheric migratory anomalies originating over the South China Sea. However, a lower-tropospheric cyclonic anomaly appears during all phases in the former type, but only in the wettest phase in the latter type, with its peak disturbance occurring immediately beneath an upper-level warm anomaly. The production of extreme rainfall in the trough-type episodes is closely related to a deep trough anomaly extending from an intense cyclonic anomaly over north China, which in turn could be traced back to a midlatitude Rossby wave train passing by the Tibetan Plateau. The results have important implications for understanding the origin, structure, and evolution of synoptic disturbances associated with the presummer extreme rainfall in south China.

Seasonal Distributions of Global Ocean Chlorophyll and Nutrients: Analysis with a Coupled Ocean General Circulation Biogeochemical, and Radiative Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.

1999-01-01

A coupled general ocean circulation, biogeochemical, and radiative model was constructed to evaluate and understand the nature of seasonal variability of chlorophyll and nutrients in the global oceans. The model is driven by climatological meteorological conditions, cloud cover, and sea surface temperature. Biogeochemical processes in the model are determined from the influences of circulation and turbulence dynamics, irradiance availability, and the interactions among three functional phytoplankton groups (diatoms, chorophytes, and picoplankton) and three nutrient groups (nitrate, ammonium, and silicate). Phytoplankton groups are initialized as homogeneous fields horizontally and vertically, and allowed to distribute themselves according to the prevailing conditions. Basin-scale model chlorophyll results are in very good agreement with CZCS pigments in virtually every global region. Seasonal variability observed in the CZCS is also well represented in the model. Synoptic scale (100-1000 km) comparisons of imagery are also in good conformance, although occasional departures are apparent. Agreement of nitrate distributions with in situ data is even better, including seasonal dynamics, except for the equatorial Atlantic. The good agreement of the model with satellite and in situ data sources indicates that the model dynamics realistically simulate phytoplankton and nutrient dynamics on synoptic scales. This is especially true given that initial conditions are homogenous chlorophyll fields. The success of the model in producing a reasonable representation of chlorophyll and nutrient distributions and seasonal variability in the global oceans is attributed to the application of a generalized, processes-driven approach as opposed to regional parameterization, and the existence of multiple phytoplankton groups with different physiological and physical properties. These factors enable the model to simultaneously represent the great diversity of physical, biological, chemical, and radiative environments encountered in the global oceans.

Surface Currents and Winds at the Delaware Bay Mouth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muscarella, P A; Barton, N P; Lipphardt, B L

2011-04-06

Knowledge of the circulation of estuaries and adjacent shelf waters has relied on hydrographic measurements, moorings, and local wind observations usually removed from the region of interest. Although these observations are certainly sufficient to identify major characteristics, they lack both spatial resolution and temporal coverage. High resolution synoptic observations are required to identify important coastal processes at smaller scales. Long observation periods are needed to properly sample low-frequency processes that may also be important. The introduction of high-frequency (HF) radar measurements and regional wind models for coastal studies is changing this situation. Here we analyze synoptic, high-resolution surface winds andmore » currents in the Delaware Bay mouth over an eight-month period (October 2007 through May 2008). The surface currents were measured by two high-frequency radars while the surface winds were extracted from a data-assimilating regional wind model. To illustrate the utility of these monitoring tools we focus on two 45-day periods which previously were shown to present contrasting pictures of the circulation. One, the low-outflow period is from 1 October through 14 November 2007; the other is the high-outflow period from 3 March through 16 April 2008. The large-scale characteristics noted by previous workers are clearly corroborated. Specifically the M2 tide dominates the surface currents, and the Delaware Bay outflow plume is clearly evident in the low frequency currents. Several new aspects of the surface circulation were also identified. These include a map of the spatial variability of the M2 tide (validating an earlier model study), persistent low-frequency cross-mouth flow, and a rapid response of the surface currents to a changing wind field. However, strong wind episodes did not persist long enough to set up a sustained Ekman response.« less

Synoptic meteorological modes of variability for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality in major metropolitan regions of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, Danny M.; Tai, Amos P. K.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Moch, Jonathan M.; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Shen, Lu; Martin, Randall V.

2018-05-01

In his study, we use a combination of multivariate statistical methods to understand the relationships of PM2.5 with local meteorology and synoptic weather patterns in different regions of China across various timescales. Using June 2014 to May 2017 daily total PM2.5 observations from ˜ 1500 monitors, all deseasonalized and detrended to focus on synoptic-scale variations, we find strong correlations of daily PM2.5 with all selected meteorological variables (e.g., positive correlation with temperature but negative correlation with sea-level pressure throughout China; positive and negative correlation with relative humidity in northern and southern China, respectively). The spatial patterns suggest that the apparent correlations with individual meteorological variables may arise from common association with synoptic systems. Based on a principal component analysis of 1998-2017 meteorological data to diagnose distinct meteorological modes that dominate synoptic weather in four major regions of China, we find strong correlations of PM2.5 with several synoptic modes that explain 10 to 40 % of daily PM2.5 variability. These modes include monsoonal flows and cold frontal passages in northern and central China associated with the Siberian High, onshore flows in eastern China, and frontal rainstorms in southern China. Using the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region as a case study, we further find strong interannual correlations of regionally averaged satellite-derived annual mean PM2.5 with annual mean relative humidity (RH; positive) and springtime fluctuation frequency of the Siberian High (negative). We apply the resulting PM2.5-to-climate sensitivities to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate projections to predict future PM2.5 by the 2050s due to climate change, and find a modest decrease of ˜ 0.5 µg m-3 in annual mean PM2.5 in the BTH region due to more frequent cold frontal ventilation under the RCP8.5 future, representing a small climate benefit, but the RH-induced PM2.5 change is inconclusive due to the large inter-model differences in RH projections.

Synoptic events force biological productivity in Patagonian fjord ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daneri, Giovanni

2016-04-01

The annual cycle of primary productivity of the Patagonian fjords has, to date, been described as a two phase system consisting of a short non productive winter phase (during June and July) and a productive phase extending from late winter (August) to autumn (May). Low levels of primary production, phytoplankton biomass and high concentrations of surface nutrients have been described as characterizing winter conditions while pulsed productivity events typifies the productivity pattern during the extended productive season. Pulsed productivity events characterize coastal waters where inorganic nutrients in surface layers are replenished following periods of intensive utilization by autotrophs. Freshwater input in Patagonian fjords in southern Chile (41-55°S) results in one of the largest estuarine regions worldwide. Here strong haline water column stratification prevents nutrient mixing to the surface layers thus potentially shutting off algal production. Our working hypothesis considered that in order to reconcile the observed pulsed productivity pattern, periodic breaking (associated to surface nutrient replenishment) and re-establishment of estuarine conditions (associated to water column stratification) would be required. Up to now however our understanding of the physical processes that control water column conditions in the Patagonian fjord area has been extremely limited. Here we present evidence linking the passage of synoptic low pressure fronts to pulsed productivity events in the Patagonian fjord area. These front controls and influence local processes of interaction between the fjord and the atmosphere generating a rapid water column response. In the specific case of the Puyuhuapi fjord we have been able to show that such synoptic fronts induce surface flow reversal and water column mixing. Phytoplankton blooming occurs after the passage of the synoptic front once calmer conditions prevail and estuarine conditions are re established. The occurrence of an extremely productive bloom of the dinoflagellate Heterocapsa sp. in July 2014, after the passage of a synoptic low pressure front provided, for the first time, strong evidence that phytoplankton blooming in the Patagonian fjord ecosystems is controlled by synoptic processes and that they are not limited by light as previously reported. This research was funded by COPAS Sur-Austral (PFB-31) and FONDECYT 1131063

A numerical model simulation of the regional air pollution meteorology of the greater Chesapeake Bay area - Summer day case study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Segal, M.; Pielke, R. A.; Mcnider, R. T.; Mcdougal, D. S.

1982-01-01

The mesoscale numerical model of the University of Virginia (UVMM), has been applied to the greater Chesapeake Bay area in order to provide a detailed description of the air pollution meteorology during a typical summer day. This model provides state of the art simulations for land-sea thermally induced circulations. The model-predicted results agree favorably with available observed data. The effects of synoptic flow and sea breeze coupling on air pollution meteorological characteristics in this region, are demonstrated by a spatial and temporal presentation of various model predicted fields. A transport analysis based on predicted wind velocities indicated possible recirculation of pollutants back onto the Atlantic coast due to the sea breeze circulation.

Case study modeling of turbulent and mesoscale fluxes over the BOREAS region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vidale, P.L.; Pielke, R.A.; Steyaert, L.T.; Barr, A.

1997-01-01

Results from aircraft and surface observations provided evidence for the existence of mesoscale circulations over the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) domain. Using an integrated approach that included the use of analytical modeling, numerical modeling, and data analysis, we have found that there are substantial contributions to the total budgets of heat over the BOREAS domain generated by mesoscale circulations. This effect is largest when the synoptic flow is relatively weak, yet it is present under less favorable conditions, as shown by the case study presented here. While further analysis is warranted to document this effect, the existence of mesoscale flow is not surprising, since it is related to the presence of landscape patches, including lakes, which are of a size on the order of the local Rossby radius and which have spatial differences in maximum sensible heat flux of about 300 W m-2. We have also analyzed the vertical temperature profile simulated in our case study as well as high-resolution soundings and we have found vertical profiles of temperature change above the boundary layer height, which we attribute in part to mesoscale contributions. Our conclusion is that in regions with organized landscapes, such as BOREAS, even with relatively strong synoptic winds, dynamical scaling criteria should be used to assess whether mesoscale effects should be parameterized or explicitly resolved in numerical models of the atmosphere.

The synoptic- and planetary-scale environments associated with significant 1000-hPa geostrophic wind events along the Beaufort Sea coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooke, Melanie

The substantial interannual variability and the observed warming trend of the Beaufort Sea region are important motivators for the study of regional climate and weather there. In an attempt to further our understanding of strong wind events, which can drive sea ice dynamics and storm surges, their characteristic environments at the synoptic and planetary scales are defined and analysed using global reanalysis data. A dependency on an enhanced or suppressed Aleutian low is found. This produces either a strong southeasterly or north-westerly 1000-hPa geostrophic wind event. The characteristic mid-tropospheric patterns for these two distinct event types show similarities to the positive and negative Pacific/North American teleconnection patterns, but their correlations have yet to be assessed.

Cloud cover determination in polar regions from satellite imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barry, R. G.; Key, J. R.; Maslanik, J. A.

1988-01-01

The principal objectives of this project are: (1) to develop suitable validation data sets to evaluate the effectiveness of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) operational algorithm for cloud retrieval in polar regions and to validate model simulations of polar cloud cover; (2) to identify limitations of current procedures for varying atmospheric surface conditions, and to explore potential means to remedy them using textural classifiers; and (3) to compare synoptic cloud data from a control run experiment of the GISS climate model II with typical observed synoptic cloud patterns.

Role of circulation in European heatwaves using flow analogues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jézéquel, Aglaé; Yiou, Pascal; Radanovics, Sabine

2018-02-01

The intensity of European heatwaves is connected to specific synoptic atmospheric circulation. Given the relatively small number of observations, estimates of the connection between the circulation and temperature require ad hoc statistical methods. This can be achieved through the use of analogue methods, which allow to determine a distribution of temperature conditioned to the circulation. The computation of analogues depends on a few parameters. In this article, we evaluate the influence of the variable representing the circulation, the size of the domain of computation, the length of the dataset, and the number of analogues on the reconstituted temperature anomalies. We tested the sensitivity of the reconstitution of temperature to these parameters for four emblematic recent heatwaves: June 2003, August 2003, July 2006 and July 2015. The paper provides general guidelines for the use of flow analogues to investigate European summer heatwaves. We found that Z500 is better suited than SLP to simulate temperature anomalies, and that rather small domains lead to better reconstitutions. The dataset length has an important influence on the uncertainty. We conclude by a set of recommendations for an optimal use of analogues to probe European heatwaves.

Simulation of mesoscale circulation in the Tatar Strait of the Japan Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponomarev, V. I.; Fayman, P. A.; Prants, S. V.; Budyansky, M. V.; Uleysky, M. Yu.

2018-06-01

The eddy-resolved ocean circulation model RIAMOM (Lee et al., 2003) is used to analyze seasonal variability of mesoscale circulation in the Tatar Strait of the Japan Sea. The model domain is a vast area including the northern Japan Sea, Okhotsk Sea and adjacent region in the Pacific Ocean. A numerical experiment with a horizontal 1/18° resolution has been carried out under realistic meteorological conditions from the ECMWF ERA-40 reanalysis with restoring of surface temperature and salinity. The simulated seasonal variability of both the current system and mesoscale eddy dynamics in the Tatar Strait is in a good agreement with temperature and salinity distributions of oceanographic observation data collected during various seasons and years. Two general circulation regimes in the Strait have been found. The circulation regime changes from summer to winter due to seasonal change of the North Asian Monsoon. On a synoptic time scale, the similar change of the circulation regime occurs due to change of the southeastern wind to the northwestern one when the meteorological situation with an anticyclone over the Okhotsk Sea changes to that with a strong cyclone. The Lagrangian maps illustrate seasonal changes in direction of the main currents and in polarity and location of mesoscale eddies in the Strait.

Evaluating the predictability of PM10 grades in Seoul, Korea using a neural network model based on synoptic patterns.

PubMed

Hur, Sun-Kyong; Oh, Hye-Ryun; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Kim, Jinwon; Song, Chang-Keun; Chang, Lim-Seok; Lee, Jae-Bum

2016-11-01

As of November 2014, the Korean Ministry of Environment (KME) has been forecasting the concentration of particulate matter with diameters ≤ 10 μm (PM 10 ) classified into four grades: low (PM 10  ≤ 30 μg m -3 ), moderate (30 < PM 10  ≤ 80 μg m -3 ), high (80 < PM 10  ≤ 150 μg m -3 ), and very high (PM 10  > 150 μg m -3 ). The KME operational center generates PM 10 forecasts using statistical and chemistry-transport models, but the overall performance and the hit rate for the four PM 10 grades has not previously been evaluated. To provide a statistical reference for the current air quality forecasting system, we have developed a neural network model based on the synoptic patterns of several meteorological fields such as geopotential height, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind. Hindcast of the four PM 10 grades in Seoul, Korea was performed for the cold seasons (October-March) of 2001-2014 when the high and very high PM 10 grades are frequently observed. Because synoptic patterns of the meteorological fields are distinctive for each PM 10 grade, these fields were adopted and quantified as predictors in the form of cosine similarities to train the neural network model. Using these predictors in conjunction with the PM 10 concentration in Seoul from the day before prediction as an additional predictor, an overall hit rate of 69% was achieved; the hit rates for the low, moderate, high, and very high PM 10 grades were 33%, 83%, 45%, and 33%, respectively. Our findings also suggest that the synoptic patterns of meteorological variables are reliable predictors for the identification of the favorable conditions for each PM 10 grade, as well as for the transboundary transport of PM 10 from China. This evaluation of PM 10 predictability can be reliably used as a statistical reference and further, complement to the current air quality forecasting system. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A scheme for parameterizing ice cloud water content in general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heymsfield, Andrew J.; Donner, Leo J.

1989-01-01

A method for specifying ice water content in GCMs is developed, based on theory and in-cloud measurements. A theoretical development of the conceptual precipitation model is given and the aircraft flights used to characterize the ice mass distribution in deep ice clouds is discussed. Ice water content values derived from the theoretical parameterization are compared with the measured values. The results demonstrate that a simple parameterization for atmospheric ice content can account for ice contents observed in several synoptic contexts.

Clustering of Synoptic Pattern over the Korean Peninsula from Meteorological Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jinah; Heo, Kiyoung; Choi, Jungwoon; Jung, Sanghoon

2017-04-01

Numerical modeling data on meteorological and ocean science is one of example of big geographic data sources. The properties of the data including the volume, variety, and dynamic aspects pose new challenges for geographic visualization, and visual geoanalytics using big data analysis using machine learning method. A combination of algorithmic and visual approaches that make sense of large volumes of various types of spatiotemporal data are required to gain knowledge about complex phenomena. In the East coast of Korea, it is suffering from property damages and human causalities due to abnormal high waves (swell-like high-height waves). It is known to be caused by local meteorological conditions on the East Sea of Korean Peninsula in previous research and they proposed three kinds of pressure patterns that generate abnormal high waves. However, they cannot describe all kinds of pressure patterns that generate abnormal high waves. In our study, we propose unsupervised machine learning method for pattern clustering and applied it to classify a pattern which has occurred abnormal high waves using numerical meteorological model's reanalysis data from 2000 to 2015 and past historical records of accidents by abnormal high waves. About 25,000 patterns of total spatial distribution of sea surface pressure are clustered into 30 patterns and they are classified into seasonal sea level pressure patterns based on meteorological characteristics of Korean peninsula. Moreover, in order to determine the representative patterns which occurs abnormal high waves, we classified it again using historical accidents cases among the winter season pressure patterns. In this work, we clustered synoptic pattern over the Korean Peninsula in meteorological modeling reanalysis data and we could understand a seasonal variation through identifying the occurrence of clustered synoptic pattern. For the future work, we have to identify the relationship of wave modeling data for better understanding of abnormal high waves and we will develop pattern decision system to predict abnormal high waves in advances. This research was a part of the project titled "Development of Korea Operational Oceanographic System (KOOS), Phase 2" and "Investigation of Large Swell Waves and Rip currents and Development of The Disaster Response System," funded by the Ministry of Oceans & Fisheries Korea (Grant PM59691 and PM59240).

GCM simulations of intraseasonal variability in the Pacific/North American region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Suarez, Max; Park, Chung-Kyu; Moorthi, Shrinivas

1993-01-01

General circulation model (GCM) simulations of low-frequency variability with time scales of 20 to 70 days are analyzed for the Pacific sector during boreal winter. The GCM's leading mode in the upper-tropospheric zonal wind is associated with fluctuations of the East Asian jet; this mode resembles, in both structure and amplitude, the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern found in the observations on these time scales. In both the model and observations, the PNA anomaly is characterized by: (1) a linear balance in the upper-tropospheric vorticity budget with no significant Rossby wave source in the tropics, (2) a barotropic conversion of kinetic energy from the time mean Pacific jet, and (3) a north/south displacement of the Pacific storm track. In the GCM, the latter is associated with synoptic eddy heat flux and latent heat anomalies that appear to contribute to a strong lower-tropospheric source of wave activity over the North Pacific. This is in contrast to the observations, which show only a weak source of wave activity in this region.

Combination of synoptical-analogous and dynamical methods to increase skill score of monthly air temperature forecasts over Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Valentina; Tscepelev, Valery; Vilfand, Roman; Kulikova, Irina; Kruglova, Ekaterina; Tischenko, Vladimir

2016-04-01

Long-range forecasts at monthly-seasonal time scale are in great demand of socio-economic sectors for exploiting climate-related risks and opportunities. At the same time, the quality of long-range forecasts is not fully responding to user application necessities. Different approaches, including combination of different prognostic models, are used in forecast centers to increase the prediction skill for specific regions and globally. In the present study, two forecasting methods are considered which are exploited in operational practice of Hydrometeorological Center of Russia. One of them is synoptical-analogous method of forecasting of surface air temperature at monthly scale. Another one is dynamical system based on the global semi-Lagrangian model SL-AV, developed in collaboration of Institute of Numerical Mathematics and Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia. The seasonal version of this model has been used to issue global and regional forecasts at monthly-seasonal time scales. This study presents results of the evaluation of surface air temperature forecasts generated with using above mentioned synoptical-statistical and dynamical models, and their combination to potentially increase skill score over Northern Eurasia. The test sample of operational forecasts is encompassing period from 2010 through 2015. The seasonal and interannual variability of skill scores of these methods has been discussed. It was noticed that the quality of all forecasts is highly dependent on the inertia of macro-circulation processes. The skill scores of forecasts are decreasing during significant alterations of synoptical fields for both dynamical and empirical schemes. Procedure of combination of forecasts from different methods, in some cases, has demonstrated its effectiveness. For this study the support has been provided by Grant of Russian Science Foundation (№14-37-00053).

Ocean-atmosphere relationships from synoptic scale to local scale in South San Francisco Bay, with implications to flood risk at NASA Ames Research Center, Silicon Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, W. B.; Costa-Cabral, M. C.; Bromirski, P. D.; Miller, N. L.; Coats, R. N.; Loewenstein, M.; Roy, S. B.; MacWilliams, M.

2012-12-01

This work evaluates the implications to flooding risk at the low-lying NASA Ames Research Center in South San Francisco Bay under historical and projected climate and sea level rise. Atmospheric circulation patterns over the Pacific Ocean, influenced by ENSO and PDO, can result in extended periods of higher mean coastal sea level in California. Simultaneously they originate a larger number of storms that make landfall and have higher mean intensity. These storms generate barometrically-induced high water anomalies, and winds that are sometimes capable of producing large coastal waves. Storm surges that propagate from the coast into the estuary and South Bay, and locally-generated waves, may compromise the discharge capacity of stream channels. These conditions also typically generate high intensity rainfall, and the reduced channel capacity may result in fluvial flooding. Such atmospheric circulation patterns may persist for many months, during which California experiences more precipitation events of longer mean duration and higher intensity, leading to large precipitation totals that saturate soils and may exceed the storage capacity of stormwater retention ponds. Future scenarios of sea level rise, that may surpass a meter in this century according to the projections recently published by the National Research Council for states of CA, OR and WA, and projected atmospheric circulation changes associated with anthropogenic climate change, may amplify these risks. We evaluate the impacts of these changes on NASA's Ames Research Center through four areas of study: (i) wetland accretion and evolution as mean sea level rises, with implications to the Bay's response to the sea level rise and storm surges, (ii) hydrodynamic modeling to simulate the propagation of tidal height and storm surges in the Bay and the influence of local winds on wave height, (iii) evaluation of historical data and future climate projections to identify extreme precipitation events, and (iv) regional climate models to identify moisture source areas and evaluate the role of moisture flux on projected California precipitation.;

Intercomparison of numerical simulations, satellite altimetry and glider observations in the Algerian Basin during fall 2014 and 2015: focus on a SARAL/AltiKa track

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aulicino, Giuseppe; Cotroneo, Yuri; Ruiz, Simon; Sanchez Roman, Antonio; Pascual, Ananda; Fusco, Giannetta; Tintoré, Joaquin; Budillon, Giorgio

2017-04-01

The Algerian Basin is a key-place for the study of the general circulation of the Western Mediterranean Sea and its role in reaction to climate change. The presence of both fresh Atlantic waters and more saline resident Mediterranean ones characterizes the basin with an intense inflow/outflow regime and complex circulation patterns. Very energetic mesoscale structures, that evolve from meander of the Algerian Current to isolated cyclonic and anti-cyclonic eddies, dominate the area with marked repercussions on the biological activity. Despite their remarkable importance, this region and its variability are still poorly known and basin-wide high resolution knowledge of its mesoscale and sub-mesoscale features is still incomplete. The monitoring of such complex processes requires a synergic approach that involves integrated observing systems. In recent years, several studies proved the advantages of the combined use of autonomous underwater vehicles, such as gliders, with a new generation of satellite altimeters. In this context, we present the first results of a new integrated oceanographic observing system built up in the Algerian Basin during fall 2014 and 2015, aiming at advancing our knowledge on its main features. The study was realized through the analysis of glider high resolutions three-dimensional observations, collected along the Algerian BAsin Circulation Unmanned Survey (ABACUS) monitoring line, in synergy with co-located SARAL/AltiKa altimetric products and CMEMS numerical simulations. The achieved results confirm that glider derived dynamic height and SARAL/AltiKa absolute dynamic topography present similar patterns, with RMS of the differences ranging between 1.11 and 2.90 cm. Generally, the maximum discrepancies are located nearby the Balearic Islands and the Algerian Coast, but it is important to remark that the correlation coefficients seem to mostly depend on the synopticity between in situ and satellite measurements. Still, this study confirm that the numerical simulations derived from the analyzed CMEMS products agree well with the high resolution glider measurements and provide valuable information for multiplatform observatories that strongly complement in situ and remote sensed observations.

Optimum employment of satellite indirect soundings as numerical model input

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horn, L. H.; Derber, J. C.; Koehler, T. L.; Schmidt, B. D.

1981-01-01

The characteristics of satellite-derived temperature soundings that would significantly affect their use as input for numerical weather prediction models were examined. Independent evaluations of satellite soundings were emphasized to better define error characteristics. Results of a Nimbus-6 sounding study reveal an underestimation of the strength of synoptic scale troughs and ridges, and associated gradients in isobaric height and temperature fields. The most significant errors occurred near the Earth's surface and the tropopause. Soundings from the TIROS-N and NOAA-6 satellites were also evaluated. Results again showed an underestimation of upper level trough amplitudes leading to weaker thermal gradient depictions in satellite-only fields. These errors show a definite correlation to the synoptic flow patterns. In a satellite-only analysis used to initialize a numerical model forecast, it was found that these synoptically correlated errors were retained in the forecast sequence.

Meteorology of the Southern Global Plume: African and South American Fires Pollute the South Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guo, Z.; Chatfield, R. B.

1999-01-01

An immense global plume of CO meanders widely around the world in the Southern Hemisphere. It arises over Southern America and Africa and flows eastward. The first emissions are in tropical Brazil, and the plume circulates around the world to South America again. The plume was largely unexpected until there were aircraft studies made in NASA's Pacific Exploratory Mission - Tropics (Part A). This paper describes the meteorology of the Global Plume, as our simulation, with a synoptic model adapted to global transport, reveals it with a tracer-CO simulation. The observations and their simulation require a particular set of conditions of pollutant accumulation, cumulonimbus venting with required strengths at a narrow range of altitude. Additionally, a particular subtropical conduction region, over the Indian Ocean, Australia, and the westeRNmost South Pacific, relatively free of storms, appears to be a key part of the mechanism. These conclusions are the results of a synoptic reconstruction of the PEMT-A period, September- October, 1996.

Modeling Mars Cyclogenesis and Frontal Waves: Seasonal Variations and Implications on Dust Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, J. L.; Kahre, M. A.

2014-01-01

Between late autumn through early spring,middle and high latitudes onMars exhibit strong equator-to-polemean temperature contrasts (i.e., "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that such strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic period waves) [1, 2]. For a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, these large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. The wave-like disturbances serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum between low and high latitudes of the planet. Through cyclonic/anticyclonic winds, intense shear deformations, contractions-dilatations in temperature and density, and sharp perturbations amongst atmospheric tracers (i.e., dust, volatiles (e.g., water vapor) and condensates (e.g., water-ice cloud particles)), Mars' extratropical weather systems have significant sub-synoptic scale ramifications by supporting atmospheric frontal waves (Fig. 1).

The 0.125 degree finite-volume General Circulation Model on the NASA Columbia Supercomputer: Preliminary Simulations of Mesoscale Vortices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, B.-W.; Atlas, R.; Chern, J.-D.; Reale, O.; Lin, S.-J.; Lee, T.; Chang, J.

2005-01-01

The NASA Columbia supercomputer was ranked second on the TOP500 List in November, 2004. Such a quantum jump in computing power provides unprecedented opportunities to conduct ultra-high resolution simulations with the finite-volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM). During 2004, the model was run in realtime experimentally at 0.25 degree resolution producing remarkable hurricane forecasts [Atlas et al., 2005]. In 2005, the horizontal resolution was further doubled, which makes the fvGCM comparable to the first mesoscale resolving General Circulation Model at the Earth Simulator Center [Ohfuchi et al., 2004]. Nine 5-day 0.125 degree simulations of three hurricanes in 2004 are presented first for model validation. Then it is shown how the model can simulate the formation of the Catalina eddies and Hawaiian lee vortices, which are generated by the interaction of the synoptic-scale flow with surface forcing, and have never been reproduced in a GCM before.)

The lagged connection of the positive NAO with the MJO phase 3 in a simplified atmospheric model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Xiaolu; Song, Jie; Li, Shuanglin

2018-03-01

Based on a simplified nonlinear model and reanalysis data, the lagged connection of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in boreal winters is investigated. The positive NAO is observed to occur more frequently about 8-20 days after the onset of the MJO phase 3. A series of heating forcing experiments and initial-value experiments are conducted by utilizing the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) dynamical core atmospheric model. The extratropical responses to the tropical heating associated with the MJO phase 3 are characterized by a wave train over the Pacific-North American region with an anticyclone anomaly over the northeastern Pacific and then followed by a positive-NAO-like pattern over the North Atlantic sector. These circulation anomalies generally match the observed lagged-connection well. At the earlier stage, the Rossby wave train excited by the MJO convection propagates into the North Atlantic, leading to a planetary wave anomaly with a low-over-high dipole prior to the positive NAO. At the later stage, the anomalous synoptic eddy vorticity forcing (EVF) streamfunction tendency has a negative-over-positive dipole, which plays a key role in the development of the positive NAO. Further analysis of the initial-value experiments indicates that, for the subsequent formation of the positive NAO, the anomalous circulation over the Indian Ocean aroused by the MJO phase 3 is more crucial than that over the northeastern Pacific.

Cloud cover determination in polar regions from satellite imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barry, R. G.; Key, J. R.; Maslanik, J. A.

1988-01-01

The principal objectives of this project are: to develop suitable validation data sets to evaluate the effectiveness of the ISCCP operational algorithm for cloud retrieval in polar regions and to validate model simulations of polar cloud cover; to identify limitations of current procedures for varying atmospheric surface conditions, and to explore potential means to remedy them using textural classifiers: and to compare synoptic cloud data from a control run experiment of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model 2 with typical observed synoptic cloud patterns. Current investigations underway are listed and the progress made to date is summarized.

Aspects of extratropical synoptic-scale processes in opposing ENSO phases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwierz, C.; Wernli, H.; Hess, D.

2003-04-01

Energy and momentum provided by anomalous tropical heating/cooling affect the circulation on the global scale. Pacific Sea surface temperature anomalies strongly force local conditions in the equatorial Pacific, but are also known to change the climate in the extratropics, particularly over the American continent. The impact on more remote areas such as the Atlantic-European region is less clear. There the observed effects in both analyses and model studies show dependence on the resolution of the model/data, as well as on the time scales under consideration (Merkel and Latif, 2002; Compo et al., 2001). Most of the previous studies focus on larger-scale processes and seasonal time scales (or longer). Here we concentrate on the impact of opposing ENSO phases on extratropical synoptic-scale dynamics. The investigation is undertaken for the Niño/Niña events of 1972/3 and 1973/4 respectively, for 5 winter months (NDJFM) using ECMWF ERA40 data with 1o× 1o horizontal resolution and 60 vertical levels. The examination of the resulting differences in terms of standard dynamical fields (temperature, sea level pressure, precipitation, geopotential) is complemented with additional diagnostic fields (e.g. potential vorticity (PV), anti-/cyclone tracks and frequencies, PV streamers/cut-offs, blocking) in an attempt to gain more insight into aspects of extratropical synoptic-scale dynamical processes associated with ENSO SST anomalies.

Numerical simulation of tornadoes' meteorological conditions over Greece: A case study of tornadic activity over NW Peloponnese on March 25, 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsangouras, Ioannis T.; Nastos, Panagiotis T.; Pytharoulis, Ioannis

2014-05-01

Recent research revealed that NW Peloponnese, Greece is an area that favours pre-frontal tornadic incidence. This study presents the results of the synoptic analysis of the meteorological conditions during a tornado event over NW Peloponnese on March 25, 2009. Further, the role of topography in tornado genesis is examined. The tornado was formed approximately at 10:30 UTC, south-west of Vardas village, crossed the Nea Manolada and faded away at Lappas village, causing several damage. The length of its track was approximately 9-10 km and this tornado was characterized as F2 (Fujita scale) or T4-T5 in TORRO intensity scale. Synoptic analysis was based on ECMWF datasets, as well as on daily composite mean and anomaly of the geopotential heights at the middle and lower troposphere from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In addition, numerous datasets derived from weather observations and remote sensing were used in order to interpret better the examined extreme event. Finally, a numerical simulation was performed using the non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), initialized with ECMWF gridded analyses, with telescoping nested grids that allow the representation of atmospheric circulations ranging from the synoptic scale down to the meso-scale. In the numerical simulations the topography of the inner grid was modified by: a) 0% (actual topography) and b) -100% (without topography).

An objective daily Weather Type classification for Iberia since 1850; patterns, trends, variability and impact in precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, A. M.; Trigo, R. M.; Lorenzo, M. N.; Vaquero, J. M.; Gallego, M. C.; Valente, M. A.; Gimeno, L.

2009-04-01

In recent years a large number of automated classifications of atmospheric circulation patterns have been published covering the entire European continent or specific sub-regions (Huth et al., 2008). This generalized use of objective classifications results from their relatively straightforward computation but crucially from their capacity to provide simple description of typical synoptic conditions as well as their climatic and environmental impact. For this purpose, the vast majority of authors has employed the Reanalyses datasets, namely from either NCEP/NCAR or ECMWF projects. However, both these widely used datasets suffer from important caveats, namely their restricted temporal coverage, that is limited to the last six decades (NCEP/NCAR since 1948 and ECMWF since 1958). This limitation has been partially mitigated by the recent availability of continuous daily mean sea level pressure obtained within the European project EMULATE, that extended the historic records over the extra-tropical Atlantic and Europe (70°-25° N by 70° W-50° E), for the period 1850 to the present (Ansell, T. J. et al. 2006). Here we have used the extended EMULATE dataset to construct an automated version of the Lamb Weather type (WTs) classification scheme (Jones et al 1993) adapted for the center of the Iberian Peninsula. We have identified 10 basic WTs (Cyclonic, Anticyclonic and 8 directional types) following a similar methodology to that previously adopted by Trigo and DaCamara, 2000 (for Portugal) and Lorenzo et al. 2008 (for Galicia, northwestern Iberia). We have evaluated trends of monthly/seasonal frequency of each WT for the entire period and several shorter periods. Finally, we use the long-term precipitation time series from Lisbon (recently digitized) and Cadiz (southern Spain) to evaluate, the impact of each WT on the precipitation regime. It is shown that the Anticyclonic (A) type, although being the most frequent class in winter, gives a rather small contribution to the winter precipitation amount, observed on a daily basis. On the other hand, the three wettest WTs, namely the Cyclonic (C), South-westerly (SW) and Westerly (W) types, together representing roughly a third of all winter days, do account for more than 60% of the observed daily precipitation. It is shown that the large inter-annual variability of precipitation in both cities is highly related with the corresponding inter-annual variability of the wet WTs. Ansell, T. J. et al. (2006) Daily mean sea level pressure reconstructions for the European - North Atlantic region for the period 1850-2003, Journal of Climate, 19, 2717-2742, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3775.1 Huth R., Beck C., Philipp A., Demuzere M, Ustrnul Z, Cahynová M., Kyselý J., Tveito O.E. (2008) Classifications of atmospheric circulation patterns: recent advances and applications. Trends and Directions in Climate Research: Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 1146:, 105-152 Jones, P. D. , M. Hulme , K. R. Briffa. (1993) A comparison of Lamb circulation types with an objective classification scheme. Int. J. Climatol. 13: 655- 663. Lorenzo M.N., Taboada J.J. and Gimeno L. (2008) Links between circulation weather types and teleconnection patterns and their influence on precipitation patterns in Galicia (NW Spain). Int. J. Climatol. Published Online: Nov 12 2007 5:30AM DOI: 10.1002/joc.1646. Trigo R.M. and Da Camara C.C. (2000) Circulation weather types and their influence on the precipitation regime in Portugal. Int. J. Climatol., 20, 1559-1581.

Strong signatures of high-latitude blocks and subtropical ridges in winter PM10 over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrido-Perez, Jose M.; Ordóñez, Carlos; García-Herrera, Ricardo

2017-10-01

This paper analyses the impact of high-latitude blocks and subtropical ridges on daily PM10 (particulate matter ≤ 10 μm) observations obtained from the European Environment Agency's air quality database (AirBase) for the winter period of 2000-2010. The response of the pollutant concentrations to the location of blocks and ridges with centres in two main longitudinal sectors (Atlantic, ATL, 30°-0° W; European, EUR, 0°-30° E) is examined. In particular, EUR blocking is associated with a collapse of the boundary layer as well as reduced wind speeds and precipitation occurrence, yielding large positive anomalies which average 12 μg m-3 over the whole continent. Conversely, the enhanced zonal flow around 50°-60° N and the increased occurrence of precipitation over northern-central Europe on days with ATL ridges favour the ventilation of the boundary layer and the impact of washout processes, reducing PM10 concentrations on average by around 8 μg m-3. The presence of EUR blocks is also concurrent with an increased probability of exceeding the air quality target (50 μg m-3 for 24-h averaged PM10) and the local 90th percentiles for this pollutant at many sites in central Europe, while the opposite effect is found for ridges. In addition, the effect of synoptic persistence on the PM10 concentrations is stronger for EUR blocks than for ATL ridges. This could benefit the predictability of PM10 extremes over wide areas of the region. Finally, we have found that the combined or isolated effect of both synoptic patterns can partly control the interannual variability of winter mean PM10 at many sites of north-western and central Europe, with coefficients of determination (R2) exceeding 0.80 for southern Germany. These results indicate that the response of the particulate matter (PM) concentrations to large-scale circulation patterns is stronger than previously reported for Europe and other mid-latitude regions.

Kinematics and thermodynamics of a midlatitude, continental mesoscale convective system and its mesoscale vortex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knievel, Jason Clark

The author examines a mesoscale convective system (MCS) and the mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) it generated. The MCS, which comprised a leading convective line and trailing stratiform region, traversed Kansas and Oklahoma on 1 August 1996, passing through the NOAA Wind Profiler Network, as well as four sites from which soundings were being taken every three hours during a field project. The unusually rich data set permitted study of the MCS and MCV over nine hours on scales between those of operational rawinsondes and Doppler radars. The author used a spatial bandpass filter to divide observed wind into synoptic and mesoscale components. The environment-relative, mesoscale wind contained an up- and downdraft and divergent outflows in the lower and upper troposphere. The mesoscale wind was asymmetric about the MCS, consistent with studies of gravity waves generated by heating typical of that in many MCSs. According to a scale-discriminating vorticity budget, both the synoptic and mesoscale winds contributed to the prominent resolved sources of vorticity in the MCV: tilting and convergence. Unresolved sources were also large. The author speculates that an abrupt change in the main source of vorticity in an MCV may appear as an abrupt change in its altitude of maximum vorticity. Distributions of temperature and humidity in the MCS were consistent with its mesoscale circulations. In the terminus of the mesoscale downdraft, advection of drier, potentially warmer air exceeded humidifying and cooling from rain, so profiles of temperature and dew point exhibit onion and double-onion patterns. The mesoscale updraft was approximately saturated with a moist adiabatic lapse rate. Mesoscale drafts and convective drafts vertically mixed the troposphere, partially homogenizing equivalent potential temperature. The MCV contained a column of high potential vorticity in the middle troposphere, with a cold core below the freezing level and a warm core above---a pattern characteristic of profiles of heating by stratiform regions. The cold core was 2 km too shallow to be in pure gradient balance with wind in the MCV. On-going forcing during the observed lifetime of the MCV may have prevented it from achieving balance, even if that was its tendency.

Using in-situ observations of atmospheric water vapor isotopes to benchmark and isotope-enabled General Circulation Models and improve ice core paleo-climate reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steen-Larsen, Hans Christian; Sveinbjörnsdottir, Arny; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Werner, Martin; Risi, Camille; Yoshimura, Kei

2016-04-01

We have since 2010 carried out in-situ continuous water vapor isotope observations on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet (3 seasons at NEEM), in Svalbard (1 year), in Iceland (4 years), in Bermuda (4 years). The expansive dataset containing high accuracy and precision measurements of δ18O, δD, and the d-excess allow us to validate and benchmark the treatment of the atmospheric hydrological cycle's processes in General Circulation Models using simulations nudged to reanalysis products. Recent findings from both Antarctica and Greenland have documented strong interaction between the snow surface isotopes and the near surface atmospheric water vapor isotopes on diurnal to synoptic time scales. In fact, it has been shown that the snow surface isotopes take up the synoptic driven atmospheric water vapor isotopic signal in-between precipitation events, erasing the precipitation isotope signal in the surface snow. This highlights the importance of using General or Regional Climate Models, which accurately are able to simulate the atmospheric water vapor isotopic composition, to understand and interpret the ice core isotope signal. With this in mind we have used three isotope-enabled General Circulation Models (isoGSM, ECHAM5-wiso, and LMDZiso) nudged to reanalysis products. We have compared the simulations of daily mean isotope values directly with our in-situ observations. This has allowed us to characterize the variability of the isotopic composition in the models and compared it to our observations. We have specifically focused on the d-excess in order to characterize why both the mean and the variability is significantly lower than our observations. We argue that using water vapor isotopes to benchmark General Circulation Models offers an excellent tool for improving the treatment and parameterization of the atmospheric hydrological cycle. Recent studies have documented a very large inter-model dispersion in the treatment of the Arctic water cycle under a future global warming and greenhouse gas emission scenario. Our results call for action to create an international pan-Arctic monitoring water vapor isotope network in order to improve future projections of Arctic climate.

Impacts of synoptic condition and planetary boundary layer structure on the trans-boundary aerosol transport from Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Yucong; Guo, Jianping; Liu, Shuhua; Zhao, Chun; Li, Xiaolan; Zhang, Gen; Wei, Wei; Ma, Yanjun

2018-05-01

The northeastern China frequently experiences severe aerosol pollution in winter under unfavorable meteorological conditions. How and to what extent the meteorological factors affect the air quality there are not yet clearly understood. Thus, this study investigated the impacts of synoptic patterns on the aerosol transport and planetary boundary layer (PBL) structure in Shenyang from 1 to 3 December 2016, using surface observations, sounding measurements, satellite data, and three-dimensional simulations. Results showed that the aerosol pollution occurred in Shenyang was not only related to the local emissions, but also contributed by trans-boundary transport of aerosols from the Beiijng-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region. In the presence of the westerly and southwesterly synoptic winds, the aerosols emitted from BTH could be brought to Shenyang. From December 2 to 3, the aerosols emitted from BTH accounted for ∼20% of near-surface PM2.5 in Shenyang. In addition, the large-scale synoptic forcings could affect the vertical mixing of pollutants through modulating the PBL structure in Shenyang. The westerly and southwesterly synoptic winds not only brought the aerosols but also the warmer air masses from the southwest regions to Shenyang. The strong warm advections above PBL could enhance the already existing thermal inversion layers capping over PBL in Shenyang, leading to the suppressions of PBL. Both the trans-boundary transport of aerosols and the suppressions of PBL caused by the large-scale synoptic forcings should be partly responsible for the poor air quality in Shenyang, in addition to the high pollutant emissions. The present study revealed the physical mechanisms underlying the aerosol pollution in Shenyang, which has important implications for better forecasting and controlling the aerosols pollution.

Using nudging to improve global-regional dynamic consistency in limited-area climate modeling: What should we nudge?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omrani, Hiba; Drobinski, Philippe; Dubos, Thomas

2015-03-01

Regional climate modelling sometimes requires that the regional model be nudged towards the large-scale driving data to avoid the development of inconsistencies between them. These inconsistencies are known to produce large surface temperature and rainfall artefacts. Therefore, it is essential to maintain the synoptic circulation within the simulation domain consistent with the synoptic circulation at the domain boundaries. Nudging techniques, initially developed for data assimilation purposes, are increasingly used in regional climate modeling and offer a workaround to this issue. In this context, several questions on the "optimal" use of nudging are still open. In this study we focus on a specific question which is: What variable should we nudge? in order to maintain the consistencies between the regional model and the driving fields as much as possible. For that, a "Big Brother Experiment", where a reference atmospheric state is known, is conducted using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model over the Euro-Mediterranean region. A set of 22 3-month simulations is performed with different sets of nudged variables and nudging options (no nudging, indiscriminate nudging, spectral nudging) for summer and winter. The results show that nudging clearly improves the model capacity to reproduce the reference fields. However the skill scores depend on the set of variables used to nudge the regional climate simulations. Nudging the tropospheric horizontal wind is by far the key variable to nudge to simulate correctly surface temperature and wind, and rainfall. To a lesser extent, nudging tropospheric temperature also contributes to significantly improve the simulations. Indeed, nudging tropospheric wind or temperature directly impacts the simulation of the tropospheric geopotential height and thus the synoptic scale atmospheric circulation. Nudging moisture improves the precipitation but the impact on the other fields (wind and temperature) is not significant. As an immediate consequence, nudging tropospheric wind, temperature and moisture in WRF gives by far the best results with respect to the Big-Brother simulation. However, we noticed that a residual bias of the geopotential height persists due to a negative surface pressure anomaly which suggests that surface pressure is the missing quantity to nudge. Nudging the geopotential has no discernible effect. Finally, it should be noted that the proposed strategy ensures a dynamical consistency between the driving field and the simulated small-scale field but it does not ensure the best "observed" fine scale field because of the possible impact of incorrect driving large-scale field.

Influence of atmospheric transport on ozone and trace- level toxic air contaminants over the northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brankov, Elvira

This thesis presents a methodology for examining the relationship between synoptic-scale atmospheric transport patterns and observed pollutant concentration levels. It involves calculating a large number of back-trajectories from the observational site and subjecting them to cluster analysis. The pollutant concentration data observed at that site are then segregated according to the back-trajectory clusters. If the pollutant observations extend over several seasons, it is important to filter out seasonal and long-term components from the time series data before pollutant cluster-segregation, because only the short-term component of the time series data is related to the synoptic-scale transport. Multiple comparison procedures are used to test for significant differences in the chemical composition of pollutant data associated with each cluster. This procedure is useful in indicating potential pollutant source regions and isolating meteorological regimes associated with pollutant transport from those regions. If many observational sites are available, the spatial and temporal scales of the pollution transport from a given direction can be extracted through the time-lagged inter- site correlation analysis of pollutant concentrations. The proposed methodology is applicable to any pollutant at any site if sufficiently abundant data set is available. This is illustrated through examination of five-year long time series data of ozone concentrations at several sites in the Northeast. The results provide evidence of ozone transport to these sites, revealing the characteristic spatial and temporal scales involved in the transport and identifying source regions for this pollutant. Problems related to statistical analyses of censored data are addressed in the second half of this thesis. Although censoring (reporting concentrations in a non-quantitative way) is typical for trace-level measurements, methods for statistical analysis, inference and interpretation of such data are complex and still under development. In this study, multiple comparison of censored data sets was required in order to examine the influence of synoptic- scale circulations on concentration levels of several trace-level toxic pollutants observed in the Northeast (e.g., As, Se, Mn, V, etc.). Since the traditional multiple comparison procedures are not readily applicable to such data sets, a Monte Carlo simulation study was performed to assess several nonparametric methods for multiple comparison of censored data sets. Application of an appropriate comparison procedure to clusters of toxic trace elements observed in the Northeast led to the identification of potential source regions and atmospheric patterns associated with the long-range transport of these pollutants. A method for comparison of proportions and elemental ratio calculations were used to confirm/clarify these inferences with a greater degree of confidence.

Climatic conditions preceding historically great fires in the North Central Region.

Treesearch

Donald A. Haines; Rodney W. Sando

1969-01-01

This paper examines the importance of various climatic variables before seven well-known fires of the past. Also, the 1871 synoptic weather pattern preceding the Chicago-Peshtigo-Michigan fire disaster is examined in detail.

Changes in Pacific Northwest Heat Waves and Associated Synoptic/Mesoscale Drivers Under Anthropogenic Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brewer, M.; Mass, C.

2014-12-01

Though western Oregon and Washington summers are typically mild due to the influence of the nearby Pacific Ocean, this region occasionally experiences heat waves with temperatures in excess of 35ºC. These heat waves can have a substantial impact on this highly populated region, particularly since the population is unaccustomed to and generally unprepared for such conditions. A comprehensive evaluation is needed of past and future heat wave trends in frequency, intensity, and duration. Furthermore, it is important to understand the physical mechanisms of Northwest heat waves and how such mechanisms might change under anthropogenic global warming. Lower-tropospheric heat waves over the west coast of North America are the result of both synoptic and mesoscale factors, the latter requiring high-resolution models (roughly 12-15 km grid spacing) to simulate. Synoptic factors include large-scale warming due to horizontal advection and subsidence, as well as reductions in large-scale cloudiness. An important mesoscale factor is the occurrence of offshore (easterly) flow, resulting in an adiabatically warmed continental air mass spreading over the western lowlands rather than the more usual cool, marine air influence. To fully understand how heat waves will change under AGW, it is necessary to determine the combined impacts of both synoptic and mesoscale effects in a warming world. General Circulation Models (GCM) are generally are too coarse to simulate mesoscale effects realistically and thus may provide unreliable estimates of the frequency and magnitudes of West Coast heat waves. Therefore, to determine the regional implications of global warming, this work made use of long-term, high-resolution WRF simulations, at 36- and 12-km resolution, produced by dynamically downscaling GCM grids. This talk will examine the predicted trends in Pacific Northwest heat wave intensity, duration, and frequency during the 21st century (through 2100). The spatial distribution in the trends in heat waves, and the variability of these trends at different resolutions and among different models will also be described. Finally, changes in the synoptic and mesoscale configurations that drive Pacific Northwest heat waves and the modulating effects of local terrain and land/water contrast will be discussed.

Near-coastal ocean variability off southern Tamaulipas - northern Veracruz, western Gulf of Mexico, during spring-summer 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivas, David

2016-04-01

Six months of observations from a near-coastal mooring deployed off southern Tamaulipas-northern Veracruz coast (western Gulf of Mexico) during spring-summer 2013 provides velocity, temperature, salinity, sea level, and dissolved oxygen series in a region which ocean dynamics is still poorly understood. As shown in a preceding analysis of this region's winter circulation for winter 2012-2013, coastal trapped motions associated with the regional invasion of synoptic cold fronts modulate the local variability; this pattern remains in the spring 2013, when even more intense events of alongshore flow (>50 cm/s) are observed. This intensified flow is associated with a significant decrease in the dissolved oxygen, most probably related to an influence of hypoxic waters coming from the northern Gulf. In late spring-mid summer, the wind pattern corresponds to persistent southeasterly winds that favor the occurrence of a local upwelling, which maintains a local thermal reduction (>3 degrees Celsius) and is associated with a persistent northward flow (>30 cm/s). The late summer was characterized by a significant tropical-cyclone activity, when a depression, a storm, and a hurricane affected the western Gulf. These tropical systems caused an intense precipitation and hence an important intensification of the local riverine discharge, and the winds enhanced the mixing of such riverine waters, via mostly kinetic stirring and Ekman pumping.

Intraseasonal oscillation associated with the Indian winter monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimri, A. P.

2013-02-01

The Indian winter (December-February) monsoon (IWM) contributes almost one third of the annual precipitation over the western Himalayas (WH). In winter, eastward moving synoptic weather systems, or "western disturbances" (WDs), yield precipitation in either liquid or solid form. Although previous studies have examined the interannual variation (IAV) of the IWM, little is known of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) associated with the IWM. The present study examines the ISO and its plausible effects on the IWM using 28 years (1980-2007) of precipitation, height, wind, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) fields. The dominant ISO mode is found during the active IWM phase with well-defined cyclonic circulation in the midtroposphere over the WH. The relationship between OLR and circulation indicates that this ISO mode is driven by moisture convergence. During the peak phase, a strong moisture influx from the Arabian Sea dominates. This moisture incursion adds to the precipitation over the WH. Successive growth and decay of anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation takes place within ISO periodicity. Strong convection always seems to precede anomalous cyclonic circulation. In addition, in-phase wind and convection (over the WH region) are associated with the ISO phase.

Mesoscale Numerical Simulations of the IAS Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mooers, C. N.; Ko, D.

2008-05-01

Real-time nowcasts and forecasts of the IAS circulation have been made for several years with mesoscale resolution using the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) implemented for the IAS. It is commonly called IASNFS and is driven by the lower resolution Global NCOM on the open boundaries, synoptic atmospheric forcing obtained from the Navy Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), and assimilated satellite-derived sea surface height anomalies and sea surface temperature. Here, examples of the model output are demonstrated; e.g., Gulf of Mexico Loop Current eddy shedding events and the meandering Caribbean Current jet and associated eddies. Overall, IASNFS is ready for further analysis, application to a variety of studies, and downscaling to even higher resolution shelf models. Its output fields are available online through NOAA's National Coastal Data Development Center (NCDDC), located at the Stennis Space Center.

Integrated Study of the Dynamics of the Kuroshio Intrusion and Effects on Acoustic Propagation

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-08-03

runs that could then be evaluated against synoptic surveys collected using a ship-based towed, undulating profiler. ocean circulation; ocean...Revelle. Gliders were launched from R/V Melville in May. Data from the broad-scale hydrographic survey undertaken by OR2 and OR3 in Taiwan Strait...1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 Salinity psu figure 1. plan views of the temperature and salinity fields from two broad-scale surveys from r/Vs Ocean Researcher 2

Macroinvertebrate communities evaluated prior to and following a channel restoration project in Silver Creek, Blaine County, Idaho, 2001-16

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacCoy, Dorene E.; Short, Terry M.

2017-11-22

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Blaine County and The Nature Conservancy, evaluated the status of macroinvertebrate communities prior to and following a channel restoration project in Silver Creek, Blaine County, Idaho. The objective of the evaluation was to determine whether 2014 remediation efforts to restore natural channel conditions in an impounded area of Silver Creek caused declines in local macroinvertebrate communities. Starting in 2001 and ending in 2016, macroinvertebrates were sampled every 3 years at two long-term trend sites and sampled seasonally (spring, summer, and autumn) in 2013, 2015, and 2016 at seven synoptic sites. Trend-site communities were collected from natural stream-bottom substrates to represent locally established macroinvertebrate assemblages. Synoptic site communities were sampled using artificial (multi-plate) substrates to represent recently colonized (4–6 weeks) assemblages. Statistical summaries of spatial and temporal patterns in macroinvertebrate taxonomic composition at both trend and synoptic sites were completed.The potential effect of the restoration project on resident macroinvertebrate populations was determined by comparing the following community assemblage metrics:Total taxonomic richness (taxa richness);Total macroinvertebrate abundance (total abundance);Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera (EPT) richness;EPT abundance;Simpson’s diversity; andSimpson’s evenness for periods prior to and following restoration.A significant decrease in one or more metric values in the period following stream channel restoration was the basis for determining impairment to the macroinvertebrate communities in Silver Creek.Comparison of pre-restoration (2001–13) and post‑restoration (2016) macroinvertebrate community composition at trend sites determined that no significant decreases occurred in any metric parameter for communities sampled in 2016. Taxa and EPT richness of colonized assemblages at synoptic sites increased significantly from pre-restoration in 2013 to post-restoration in 2015 and 2016. Similarly, total and EPT abundances at synoptic sites showed non-significant increases from 2013 to 2015 and 2016. Significant seasonal differences in macroinvertebrate assemblages were apparent at synoptic site locations and likely reflected typical life-history patterns of increased insect emergence and development in the late spring and early summer months. Taxa and EPT richness were each significantly higher in spring and summer than in autumn, and total abundances were significantly higher in spring than in summer and autumn. No significant differences in community diversity or evenness of colonized communities were noted at synoptic site locations between pre- and post-restoration years or among seasons. Select community-metric results from the trend- and synoptic‑site sampling indicated that the Silver Creek restoration effort in 2014 did not result in a significant decline in resident macroinvertebrate communities.

The impact of nudging coefficient for the initialization on the atmospheric flow field and the photochemical ozone concentration of Seoul, Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Hyun-Jung; Lee, Hwa Woon; Sung, Kyoung-Hee; Kim, Min-Jung; Kim, Yoo-Keun; Jung, Woo-Sik

In order to incorporate correctly the large or local scale circulation in the model, a nudging term is introduced into the equation of motion. Nudging effects should be included properly in the model to reduce the uncertainties and improve the air flow field. To improve the meteorological components, the nudging coefficient should perform the adequate influence on complex area for the model initialization technique which related to data reliability and error suppression. Several numerical experiments have been undertaken in order to evaluate the effects on air quality modeling by comparing the performance of the meteorological result with variable nudging coefficient experiment. All experiments are calculated by the upper wind conditions (synoptic or asynoptic condition), respectively. Consequently, it is important to examine the model response to nudging effect of wind and mass information. The MM5-CMAQ model was used to assess the ozone differences in each case, during the episode day in Seoul, Korea and we revealed that there were large differences in the ozone concentration for each run. These results suggest that for the appropriate simulation of large or small-scale circulations, nudging considering the synoptic and asynoptic nudging coefficient does have a clear advantage over dynamic initialization, so appropriate limitation of these nudging coefficient values on its upper wind conditions is necessary before making an assessment. The statistical verifications showed that adequate nudging coefficient for both wind and temperature data throughout the model had a consistently positive impact on the atmospheric and air quality field. On the case dominated by large-scale circulation, a large nudging coefficient shows a minor improvement in the atmospheric and air quality field. However, when small-scale convection is present, the large nudging coefficient produces consistent improvement in the atmospheric and air quality field.

On unravelling mechanism of interplay between cloud and large scale circulation: a grey area in climate science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De, S.; Agarwal, N. K.; Hazra, Anupam; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Sahai, A. K.

2018-04-01

The interaction between cloud and large scale circulation is much less explored area in climate science. Unfolding the mechanism of coupling between these two parameters is imperative for improved simulation of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and to reduce imprecision in climate sensitivity of global climate model. This work has made an effort to explore this mechanism with CFSv2 climate model experiments whose cloud has been modified by changing the critical relative humidity (CRH) profile of model during ISM. Study reveals that the variable CRH in CFSv2 has improved the nonlinear interactions between high and low frequency oscillations in wind field (revealed as internal dynamics of monsoon) and modulates realistically the spatial distribution of interactions over Indian landmass during the contrasting monsoon season compared to the existing CRH profile of CFSv2. The lower tropospheric wind error energy in the variable CRH simulation of CFSv2 appears to be minimum due to the reduced nonlinear convergence of error to the planetary scale range from long and synoptic scales (another facet of internal dynamics) compared to as observed from other CRH experiments in normal and deficient monsoons. Hence, the interplay between cloud and large scale circulation through CRH may be manifested as a change in internal dynamics of ISM revealed from scale interactive quasi-linear and nonlinear kinetic energy exchanges in frequency as well as in wavenumber domain during the monsoon period that eventually modify the internal variance of CFSv2 model. Conversely, the reduced wind bias and proper modulation of spatial distribution of scale interaction between the synoptic and low frequency oscillations improve the eastward and northward extent of water vapour flux over Indian landmass that in turn give feedback to the realistic simulation of cloud condensates attributing improved ISM rainfall in CFSv2.

The COST733 circulation type classification software: an example for surface ozone concentrations in Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demuzere, Matthias; Kassomenos, P.; Philipp, A.

2011-08-01

In the framework of the COST733 Action "Harmonisation and Applications of Weather Types Classifications for European Regions" a new circulation type classification software (hereafter, referred to as cost733class software) is developed. The cost733class software contains a variety of (European) classification methods and is flexible towards choice of domain of interest, input variables, time step, number of circulation types, sequencing and (weighted) target variables. This work introduces the capabilities of the cost733class software in which the resulting circulation types (CTs) from various circulation type classifications (CTCs) are applied on observed summer surface ozone concentrations in Central Europe. Firstly, the main characteristics of the CTCs in terms of circulation pattern frequencies are addressed using the baseline COST733 catalogue (cat 2.0), at present the latest product of the new cost733class software. In a second step, the probabilistic Brier skill score is used to quantify the explanatory power of all classifications in terms of the maximum 8 hourly mean ozone concentrations exceeding the 120-μg/m3 threshold; this was based on ozone concentrations from 130 Central European measurement stations. Averaged evaluation results over all stations indicate generally higher performance of CTCs with a higher number of types. Within the subset of methodologies with a similar number of types, the results suggest that the use of CTCs based on optimisation algorithms are performing slightly better than those which are based on other algorithms (predefined thresholds, principal component analysis and leader algorithms). The results are further elaborated by exploring additional capabilities of the cost733class software. Sensitivity experiments are performed using different domain sizes, input variables, seasonally based classifications and multiple-day sequencing. As an illustration, CTCs which are also conditioned towards temperature with various weights are derived and tested similarly. All results exploit a physical interpretation by adapting the environment-to-circulation approach, providing more detailed information on specific synoptic conditions prevailing on days with high surface ozone concentrations. This research does not intend to bring forward a favourite classification methodology or construct a statistical ozone forecasting tool but should be seen as an introduction to the possibilities of the cost733class software. It this respect, the results presented here can provide a basic user support for the cost733class software and the development of a more user- or application-specific CTC approach.

Characterizing the influence of atmospheric river orientation and intensity on precipitation distributions over North Coastal California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hecht, Chad W.; Cordeira, Jason M.

2017-09-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long (>2000 km) and narrow (500-1000 km) corridors of enhanced vertically integrated water vapor and enhanced integrated water vapor transport (IVT) that are responsible for a majority of global poleward moisture transport and can result in extreme orographic precipitation. Observational evidence suggests that ARs within different synoptic-scale flow regimes may contain different water vapor source regions, orientations, and intensities and may result in different precipitation distributions. This study uses k-means clustering to objectively identify different orientations and intensities of ARs that make landfall over the California Russian River watershed. The ARs with different orientations and intensities occur within different synoptic-scale flow patterns in association with variability in IVT direction and quasi-geostrophic forcing for ascent and lead to different precipitation distributions over the Russian River watershed. These differences suggest that both mesoscale upslope moisture flux and synoptic-scale forcing for ascent are important factors in modulating precipitation distributions during landfalling ARs.

An investigation on thermal patterns in Iran based on spatial autocorrelation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fallah Ghalhari, Gholamabbas; Dadashi Roudbari, Abbasali

2018-02-01

The present study aimed at investigating temporal-spatial patterns and monthly patterns of temperature in Iran using new spatial statistical methods such as cluster and outlier analysis, and hotspot analysis. To do so, climatic parameters, monthly average temperature of 122 synoptic stations, were assessed. Statistical analysis showed that January with 120.75% had the most fluctuation among the studied months. Global Moran's Index revealed that yearly changes of temperature in Iran followed a strong spatially clustered pattern. Findings showed that the biggest thermal cluster pattern in Iran, 0.975388, occurred in May. Cluster and outlier analyses showed that thermal homogeneity in Iran decreases in cold months, while it increases in warm months. This is due to the radiation angle and synoptic systems which strongly influence thermal order in Iran. The elevations, however, have the most notable part proved by Geographically weighted regression model. Iran's thermal analysis through hotspot showed that hot thermal patterns (very hot, hot, and semi-hot) were dominant in the South, covering an area of 33.5% (about 552,145.3 km2). Regions such as mountain foot and low lands lack any significant spatial autocorrelation, 25.2% covering about 415,345.1 km2. The last is the cold thermal area (very cold, cold, and semi-cold) with about 25.2% covering about 552,145.3 km2 of the whole area of Iran.

The Characteristics of Cold Air Outbreaks in the Eastern United States and the Influence of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, E. T.

2017-12-01

Periods of extreme cold impact the mid-latitudes every winter. Depending on the magnitude and duration of the occurrence, extremely cold periods may be deemed cold air outbreaks (CAOs). Atmospheric teleconnections impact the displacement of polar air, but the relationship between the primary teleconnections and the manifestation of CAOs is not fully understood. A systematic CAO index was developed from 20 surface weather stations based on a set of criteria concerning magnitude, duration, and spatial extent. Statistical analyses of the data were used to determine the overall trends in CAOs. Clusters of sea level pressure (SLP), 100mb, and 10mb geopotential height anomalies were mapped utilizing self-organizing maps (SOMs) to understand the surface, upper-tropospheric Polar Vortex (PV), and stratospheric PV patterns preceding CAOs. The Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnections were used as variables to explain the magnitude and location of mid-latitude Arctic air displacement. Persistently negative SLP anomalies across the Arctic and North Atlantic were evident 1 - 2 weeks prior to the CAOs throughout the winter. The upper-tropospheric and stratospheric PV were found to be persistently weak/weakening prior to mid-winter CAOs and predominantly strong and off-centered prior to early and late season CAOs. Negative phases of the AO and NAO were favored prior to CAOs, while the PNA favored a near-neutral phase. This method of CAO and synoptic pattern characterization benefits from a continuous pattern representation and provides insight as to how specific teleconnections impact the atmospheric flow in a way that leads to CAOs in the eastern U.S.

High ozone levels in the northeast of Portugal: Analysis and characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalho, A.; Monteiro, A.; Ribeiro, I.; Tchepel, O.; Miranda, A. I.; Borrego, C.; Saavedra, S.; Souto, J. A.; Casares, J. J.

2010-03-01

Each summer period extremely high ozone levels are registered at the rural background station of Lamas d'Olo, located in the Northeast of Portugal. In average, 30% of the total alert threshold registered in Portugal is detected at this site. The main purpose of this study is to characterize the atmospheric conditions that lead to the ozone-rich episodes at this site. Synoptic patterns anomalies and back trajectories cluster analysis were performed, for the period between 2004 and 2007, considering 76 days when ozone maximum hourly concentrations were above 200 μg m -3. The obtained atmospheric anomaly fields suggested that a positive temperature anomaly is visible above the Iberian Peninsula. A strong wind flow pattern from NE is observable in the North of Portugal and Galicia, in Spain. These two features may lead to an enhancement of the photochemical production and to the transport of pollutants from Spain to Portugal. In addition, the 3D mean back trajectories associated to the ozone episode days were analysed. A clustering method has been applied to the obtained back trajectories. Four main clusters of ozone-rich episodes were identified, with different frequencies of occurrence: north-westerly flows (11%); north-easterly flows (45%), southern flow (4%) and westerly flows (40%). Both analyses highlight the NE flow as a dominant pattern over the North of Portugal during summer. The analysis of the ozone concentrations for each selected cluster indicates that this northeast circulation pattern, together with the southern flow, are responsible for the highest ozone peak episodes. This also suggests that long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants is the main contributor to the ozone levels registered at Lamas d'Olo. This is also highlighted by the correlation of the ozone time-series with the meteorological parameters analysed in the frequency domain.

ANALYSIS AND CHARACTERIZATION OF OZONE-RICH EPISODES IN NORTHEAST PORTUGAL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalho, A.; Monteiro, A.; Ribeiro, I.; Tchepel, O.; Miranda, A.; Borrego, C.; Saavedra, S.; Souto, J. A.; Casares, J. J.

2009-12-01

Each summer period extremely high ozone levels are registered at the rural background station of Lamas d’Olo, located in the Northeast of Portugal. In average, 30% of the total alert threshold registered in Portugal is detected at this site. The main purpose of this study is to characterize the atmospheric conditions that lead to the ozone-rich episodes. Synoptic patterns anomalies and back trajectories cluster analysis were performed for a period of 76 days where ozone maximum concentrations were above 200 µg.m-3. This analysis was performed for the period between 2004 and 2007. The obtained anomaly fields suggested that a positive temperature anomaly is visible above the Iberian Peninsula. In addition, a strong wind flow pattern from NE is visible in the North of Portugal and Galicia, in Spain. These two features may lead to an enhancement of the photochemical production and to the transport of pollutants from Spain to Portugal. In addition, the 3D mean back trajectories associated to the ozone episode days were analysed. A clustering method has been applied to the obtained back trajectories. Four main clusters of ozone-rich episodes were identified, with different frequencies of occurrence: north-westerly flows (11%); north-easterly flows (45%), southern flow (4%) and westerly flows (40%). Both analyses highlight the NE flow as a dominant pattern over the North of Portugal. The analysis of the ozone concentrations for each selected cluster indicates that this northeast circulation pattern, together with the southern flow, is responsible for the highest ozone peak episodes. This also suggests that long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants may be the main contributor to the ozone levels registered at Lamas d’Olo. This is also highlighted by the correlation of the ozone time series with the meteorological parameters analysed in the frequency domain.

Modelling extreme dry spells in the Mediterranean region in connection with atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tramblay, Yves; Hertig, Elke

2018-04-01

Long droughts periods can affect the Mediterranean region during the winter season, when most of annual precipitation occurs, and consequently have strong impacts on agriculture, groundwater levels and water resources. The goal of this study is to model annual maximum dry spells lengths (AMDSL) that occur during the extended winter season (October to April). The spatial patterns of extreme dry spells and their relationships with large-scale atmospheric circulation were first investigated. Then, AMDSL were modelled using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions incorporating climatic covariates, to evaluate the dependences of extreme dry spells to synoptic patterns using an analogue approach. The data from a network of 160 rain gauges having daily precipitation measurements between 1960 and 2009 are considered together with the ERA-20C reanalysis of the 20th century to provide atmospheric variables (geopotential heights, humidity, winds). A regional classification of both the occurrence and the duration of AMDSL helped to distinguish three spatially contiguous regions in which the regional distributions were found homogeneous. From composite analysis, significant positive anomalies in geopotential height (Z500) and negative anomalies in zonal wind (U850) and relative and specific humidity (S850, R850) were found to be associated with AMDSL in the three regions and provided the reference to build analogue days. Finally, non-stationary GEV models have been compared, in which the location and scale parameters are related to different atmospheric indices. Results indicates, at the whole Mediterranean scale, that positives anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation index and to a lesser extent the Mediterranean Oscillation index are linked to longer extreme dry spells in the majority of stations. For the three regions identified, the frequency of U850 negative anomalies over North Africa is significantly associated with the magnitude of AMDSL. AMDL are also associated with the frequency of S850 negative anomalies for the southeastern region, and with positive Z500 anomalies for the Western and North-eastern Mediterranean regions.

Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

2005-01-01

This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

Observations of Martian surface winds at the Viking Lander 1 site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murphy, J.R.; Leovy, C.B.; Tillman, J.E.

1990-08-30

Partial failure of the wind instrumentation on the Viking Lander 1 (VL1) in the Martian subtropics (22.5{degree}N) has limited previous analyses of meteorological data for this site. The authors describe a method for reconstructing surface winds using data from the partially failed sensor and present and analyze a time series of wind, pressure, and temperature at the site covering 350 Mars days (sols). At the beginning of the mission during early summer, winds were controlled by regional topography, but they soon underwent a transition to a regime controlled by the Hadley circulation. Diurnal and semidiurnal wind oscillations and synoptic variationsmore » have been analyzed and compared with the corresponding variations at the Viking Lander 2 middle latitude site (48{degree}N). Diurnal wind oscillations were controlled primarily by regional topography and boundary layer forcing, although a global mode may have been influencing them during two brief episodes. Semidiurnal wind oscillations were controlled by the westward propagating semidiurnal tide from sol 210 onward. Comparison of the synoptic variations at the two sites suggests that the same eastward propagating wave trains were present at both sites, at least following the first 1977 great dust storm, but discordant inferred zonal wave numbers and phase speeds at the two sites cast doubt on the zonal wave numbers deduced from analyses of combined wind and pressure data, particularly at the VL1 site where the signal to noise ratio of the dominant synoptic waves is relatively small.« less

WRF simulation over complex terrain during a southern California wildfire event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, W.; Zhong, S.; Charney, J. J.; Bian, X.; Liu, S.

2012-03-01

In October 2007, the largest wildfire-related evacuation in California's history occurred as severe wildfires broke out across southern California. Smoke from these wildfires contributed to elevated pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere, affecting air quality in a vast region of the western United States. High-resolution numerical simulations were performed using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to understand the atmospheric conditions during the wildfire episode and how the complex circulation patterns might affect smoke transport and dispersion. The simulated meteorological fields were validated using surface and upper air observations in California and Nevada. To distinguish the performance of the WRF in different geographic regions, the surface stations were grouped into coastal sites, valley and basin sites, and mountain sites, and the results for the three categories were analyzed and intercompared. For temperature and moisture, the mountain category has the best agreement with the observations, while the coastal category was the worst. For wind, the model performance for the three categories was very similar. The flow patterns over complex terrain were also analyzed under different synoptic conditions and the possible impact of the terrain on smoke and pollutant pathways is analyzed by employing a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model. When high mountains prevent the smoke from moving inland, the mountain passes act as active pathways for smoke transport; meanwhile, chimney effect helps inject the pollutants to higher levels, where they are transported regionally. The results highlight the role of complex topography in the assessment of the possible smoke transport patterns in the region.

Analysis of the long-term surface wind variability over complex terrain using a high spatial resolution WRF simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez, Pedro A.; González-Rouco, J. Fidel; Montávez, Juan P.; García-Bustamante, E.; Navarro, J.; Dudhia, J.

2013-04-01

This work uses a WRF numerical simulation from 1960 to 2005 performed at a high horizontal resolution (2 km) to analyze the surface wind variability over a complex terrain region located in northern Iberia. A shorter slice of this simulation has been used in a previous study to demonstrate the ability of the WRF model in reproducing the observed wind variability during the period 1992-2005. Learning from that validation exercise, the extended simulation is herein used to inspect the wind behavior where and when observations are not available and to determine the main synoptic mechanisms responsible for the surface wind variability. A principal component analysis was applied to the daily mean wind. Two principal modes of variation accumulate a large percentage of the wind variability (83.7%). The first mode reflects the channeling of the flow between the large mountain systems in northern Iberia modulated by the smaller topographic features of the region. The second mode further contributes to stress the differentiated wind behavior over the mountains and valleys. Both modes show significant contributions at the higher frequencies during the whole analyzed period, with different contributions at lower frequencies during the different decades. A strong relationship was found between these two modes and the zonal and meridional large scale pressure gradients over the area. This relationship is described in the context of the influence of standard circulation modes relevant in the European region like the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic pattern, East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern, and the Scandinavian pattern.

The Use of Convolutional Neural Network in Relating Precipitation to Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, B.; Hsu, K. L.; AghaKouchak, A.; Sorooshian, S.

2017-12-01

Precipitation prediction in dynamical weather and climate models depends on 1) the predictability of pressure or geopotential height for the forecasting period and 2) the successive work of interpreting the pressure field in terms of precipitation events. The later task is represented as parameterization schemes in numerical models, where detailed computing inevitably blurs the hidden cause-and-effect relationship in precipitation generation. The "big data" provided by numerical simulation, reanalysis and observation networks requires better causation analysis for people to digest and realize their use. While classic synoptical analysis methods are very-often insufficient for spatially distributed high dimensional data, a Convolutional Neural Network(CNN) is developed here to directly relate precipitation with circulation. Case study carried over west coast United States during boreal winter showed that CNN can locate and capture key pressure zones of different structures to project precipitation spatial distribution with high accuracy across hourly to monthly scales. This direct connection between atmospheric circulation and precipitation offers a probe for attributing precipitation to the coverage, location, intensity and spatial structure of characteristic pressure zones, which can be used for model diagnosis and improvement.

A Coastal Bay Summer Breeze Study, Part 1: Results of the Quiberon 2006 Experimental Campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mestayer, Patrice G.; Calmet, Isabelle; Herlédant, Olivier; Barré, Sophie; Piquet, Thibaud; Rosant, Jean-Michel

2018-04-01

The Quiberon 2006 experiment was launched to document the onset and development of land and sea breezes over a semi-circular coastal bay propitious to inshore sailing competitions. The measurements were taken during the 2 weeks of 16-28 June 2006. Micrometeorological variables were recorded at three shore sites around the bay using turbulence sensors on 10-30-m high masts, on four instrumented catamarans at selected sites within the bay, and at a fourth shore site with a Sodar. Synoptic data and local measurements are analyzed here from the point of view of both micrometeorologists and competition skippers, testing in particular the empirical rules of breeze veering and backing according to the wind direction with respect to the coastline orientation at the mesoscale (the quadrant theory). Our analysis focuses on the patterns of lower-altitude wind direction and speed around the bay and over the water basin, and the temporal variations during the periods of the breeze onset, establishment and thermal reinforcement. In offshore synoptic-flow conditions (quadrants 1 and 2), the clockwise rotation of the surface flow had a very large amplitude, reaching up to 360°. The breeze strength was negatively correlated to that of the synoptic wind speed. In conditions of onshore synoptic flow from the west (quadrant 3) at an angle to the mainland coast but perpendicular to the Quiberon peninsula, the rotation of the flow was backwards in the early morning and clockwise during the day with a moderate amplitude (40°-50°) around the synoptic wind direction. As the surface wind speed was much larger than the synoptic wind speed, such a case we have designated as a "synoptic breeze". The breeze onset was shown to fail several times under the influence of weak non-thermal events, e.g., the passage of an occluded front or clouds or an excess of convection. Finally, several local-scale influences of the complex coastal shape appeared in our measurements, e.g., wind fanning in the lee of the isthmus and airflow skirting around the peninsula forehand.

A Cost-effective Satellite-aircraft-drogue Approach for Studying Estuarine Circulation and Shelf Waste Dispersion. [Delaware Bay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klemas, V. (Principal Investigator); Davis, G.; Wang, H.; Whelan, W.; Tornatore, G.

1975-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Satellites, such as ERTS-1, can be used to obtain a synoptic view of current circulation over large coastal areas. Since in turbid coastal regions suspended sediment acts as a natural tracer, cost is minimized by eliminating the need for expensive injections of large volumes of dye such as Rhodamine-B. One of the principal shortcomings of satellite imaging of coastal currents was its inability to determine current magnitude and to penetrate beyond the upper few meters of the water column. These objections were overcome by complementing satellite observations with drogues tracking currents at various selected depths. By combining the satellite's wide coverage with aircraft or shore stations capable of tracking expendable drogues, a cost effective, integrated system was devised for monitoring currents over large areas, various depths, and under severe environmental conditions.

Monthly mean forecast experiments with the GISS model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Atlas, R. M.; Kuo, E.

1976-01-01

The GISS general circulation model was used to compute global monthly mean forecasts for January 1973, 1974, and 1975 from initial conditions on the first day of each month and constant sea surface temperatures. Forecasts were evaluated in terms of global and hemispheric energetics, zonally averaged meridional and vertical profiles, forecast error statistics, and monthly mean synoptic fields. Although it generated a realistic mean meridional structure, the model did not adequately reproduce the observed interannual variations in the large scale monthly mean energetics and zonally averaged circulation. The monthly mean sea level pressure field was not predicted satisfactorily, but annual changes in the Icelandic low were simulated. The impact of temporal sea surface temperature variations on the forecasts was investigated by comparing two parallel forecasts for January 1974, one using climatological ocean temperatures and the other observed daily ocean temperatures. The use of daily updated sea surface temperatures produced no discernible beneficial effect.

Remarkable separability of circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, K. E.; Kushner, P. J.; Fyfe, J. C.; Sigmond, M.; Kharin, V. V.; Bitz, C. M.

2017-08-01

Arctic sea ice loss may influence midlatitude climate by changing large-scale circulation. The extent to which climate change can be understood as greenhouse gas-induced changes that are modulated by this loss depends on how additive the responses to the separate influences are. A novel sea ice nudging methodology in a fully coupled climate model reveals that the separate effects of doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and associated Arctic sea ice loss are remarkably additive and insensitive to the mean climate state. This separability is evident in several fields throughout most of the year, from hemispheric to synoptic scales. The extent to which the regional response to sea ice loss sometimes agrees with and sometimes cancels the response to CO2 is quantified. The separability of the responses might provide a means to better interpret the diverse array of modeling and observational studies of Arctic change and influence.

Spherical harmonic analysis of a synoptic climatology generated with a global general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christidis, Z. D.; Spar, J.

1980-01-01

Spherical harmonic analysis was used to analyze the observed climatological (C) fields of temperature at 850 mb, geopotential height at 500 mb, and sea level pressure. The spherical harmonic method was also applied to the corresponding "model climatological" fields (M) generated by a general circulation model, the "GISS climate model." The climate model was initialized with observed data for the first of December 1976 at 00. GMT and allowed to generate five years of meteorological history. Monthly means of the above fields for the five years were computed and subjected to spherical harmonic analysis. It was found from the comparison of the spectral components of both sets, M and C, that the climate model generated reasonable 500 mb geopotential heights. The model temperature field at 850 mb exhibited a generally correct structure. However, the meridional temperature gradient was overestimated and overheating of the continents was observed in summer.

Tropospheric energy cascades in a global circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brune, Sebastian; Becker, Erich

2010-05-01

The global horizontal kinetic energy (KE) spectrum and its budget are analyzed using results from a mechanistic GCM. The model has a standard spectral dynamical core with very high vertikal resolution up to the middle stratosphere (T330/L100). As a turbulence model we combine the Smagorinsky scheme with an energy conserving hyperdiffusion that is applied for the very smallest resolved scales. The simulation confirms a slope of the KE spectrum close to -3 in the synoptic regime where the KE is dominated by vortical modes. Towards the mesoscales the spectrum flattens and assumes a slope close to -5/3. Here divergent modes become increasingly important and even dominate the KE. Our complete analysis of the sinks and sources in the spectral KE budget reveals the overall energy fluxes through the spectrum. For the upper troposphere, the change of KE due to horizontal advection is negative for large synoptic scales. It is positive for the planetary scale, as expected, and for the mesoscales as well. This implies that the mesoscales, which include the dynamical sources of tropospheric gravity waves, are in fact sustained by the energy injection at the baroclinic scale (forward energy cascade). We find an enstrophy cascade in accordance with 2D turbulence, but zero downscaling of energy due to the vortical modes alone. In other words, the forward energy cascade in the synoptic and mesoscale regime is solely due to the divergent modes and their nonlinear interaction with the vortical modes. This picture, derived form a mechanistic model, not only lends further evidence for a generally forward energy cascade in the upper tropospheric away from the baroclinic scale. It also extends the picture proposed earlier by Tung and Orlando: The transition from a -3 to a -5/3 slope in the tropospheric macroturbulence spectrum reflects the fact, that the energy cascade due to the horizontally divergent (3D) modes is hidden behind the (2D) enstrophy cascade in the synoptic regime but dominates in the mesoscales.

Improving Prediction of Large-scale Regime Transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyakum, J. R.; Roebber, P.; Bosart, L. F.; Honor, A.; Bunker, E.; Low, Y.; Hart, J.; Bliankinshtein, N.; Kolly, A.; Atallah, E.; Huang, Y.

2017-12-01

Cool season atmospheric predictability over the CONUS on subseasonal times scales (1-4 weeks) is critically dependent upon the structure, configuration, and evolution of the North Pacific jet stream (NPJ). The NPJ can be perturbed on its tropical side on synoptic time scales by recurving and transitioning tropical cyclones (TCs) and on subseasonal time scales by longitudinally varying convection associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Likewise, the NPJ can be perturbed on its poleward side on synoptic time scales by midlatitude and polar disturbances that originate over the Asian continent. These midlatitude and polar disturbances can often trigger downstream Rossby wave propagation across the North Pacific, North America, and the North Atlantic. The project team is investigating the following multiscale processes and features: the spatiotemporal distribution of cyclone clustering over the Northern Hemisphere; cyclone clustering as influenced by atmospheric blocking and the phases and amplitudes of the major teleconnection indices, ENSO and the MJO; composite and case study analyses of representative cyclone clustering events to establish the governing dynamics; regime change predictability horizons associated with cyclone clustering events; Arctic air mass generation and modification; life cycles of the MJO; and poleward heat and moisture transports of subtropical air masses. A critical component of the study is weather regime classification. These classifications are defined through: the spatiotemporal clustering of surface cyclogenesis; a general circulation metric combining data at 500-hPa and the dynamic tropopause; Self Organizing Maps (SOM), constructed from dynamic tropopause and 850 hPa equivalent potential temperature data. The resultant lattice of nodes is used to categorize synoptic classes and their predictability, as well as to determine the robustness of the CFSv2 model climate relative to observations. Transition pathways between these synoptic classes, both in the observations and the CFSv2, are investigated. At a future point in the project, the results from these multiscale investigations will be integrated in the form of a prediction tool for important variables (temperatures, precipitation and their extremes) for the 1-4 week timeframe.

Extended field observations of cirrus clouds using a ground-based cloud observing system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ackerman, Thomas P.

1994-01-01

The evolution of synoptic-scale dynamics associated with a middle and upper tropospheric cloud event that occurred on 26 November 1991 is examined. The case under consideration occurred during the FIRE CIRRUS-II Intensive Field Observing Period held in Coffeyville, KS during Nov. and Dec., 1991. Using data from the wind profiler demonstration network and a temporally and spatially augmented radiosonde array, emphasis is given to explaining the evolution of the kinematically-derived ageostrophic vertical circulations and correlating the circulation with the forcing of an extensively sampled cloud field. This is facilitated by decomposing the horizontal divergence into its component parts through a natural coordinate representation of the flow. Ageostrophic vertical circulations are inferred and compared to the circulation forcing arising from geostrophic confluence and shearing deformation derived from the Sawyer-Eliassen Equation. It is found that a thermodynamically indirect vertical circulation existed in association with a jet streak exit region. The circulation was displaced to the cyclonic side of the jet axis due to the orientation of the jet exit between a deepening diffluent trough and building ridge. The cloud line formed in the ascending branch of the vertical circulation with the most concentrated cloud development occurring in conjunction with the maximum large-scale vertical motion. The relationship between the large scale dynamics and the parameterization of middle and upper tropospheric clouds in large-scale models is discussed and an example of ice water contents derived from a parameterization forced by the diagnosed vertical motions and observed water vapor contents is presented.

Synoptic thermodynamic and dynamic patterns associated with Quitandinha River flooding events in Petropolis, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silva, Fabricio Polifke; Justi da Silva, Maria Gertrudes Alvarez; Rotunno Filho, Otto Corrêa; Pires, Gisele Dornelles; Sampaio, Rafael João; de Araújo, Afonso Augusto Magalhães

2018-05-01

Natural disasters are the result of extreme or intense natural phenomena that cause severe impacts on society. These impacts can be mitigated through preventive measures that can be aided by better knowledge of extreme phenomena and monitoring of forecasting and alert systems. The city of Petropolis (in a mountainous region of the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) is prone to heavy rain events, often leading to River overflows, landslides, and loss of life. In that context, this work endeavored to characterize the thermodynamic and dynamic synoptic patterns that trigger heavy rainfall episodes and the corresponding flooding of Quitandinha River. More specifically, we reviewed events from the time period between January 2013 and December 2014 using reanalysis data. We expect that the overall description obtained of synoptic patterns should provide adequate qualitative aid to the decision-making processes involved in operational forecasting procedures. We noticed that flooding events were related to the presence of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), frontal systems (FS), and convective storms (CS). These systems showed a similar behavior on high-frequency wind components, notably with respect to northwest winds before precipitation and to a strong southwest wind component during rainfall events. Clustering analyses indicated that the main component for precipitation formation with regard to CS systems comes from daytime heating, with the dynamic component presenting greater efficiency for the FS configurations. The SACZ events were influenced by moisture availability along the vertical column of the atmosphere and also due to dynamic components of precipitation efficiency and daytime heating, the latter related to the continuous transport of moisture from the Amazon region and South Atlantic Ocean towards Rio de Janeiro state.

A zonally symmetric model for the monsoon-Hadley circulation with stochastic convective forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De La Chevrotière, Michèle; Khouider, Boualem

2017-02-01

Idealized models of reduced complexity are important tools to understand key processes underlying a complex system. In climate science in particular, they are important for helping the community improve our ability to predict the effect of climate change on the earth system. Climate models are large computer codes based on the discretization of the fluid dynamics equations on grids of horizontal resolution in the order of 100 km, whereas unresolved processes are handled by subgrid models. For instance, simple models are routinely used to help understand the interactions between small-scale processes due to atmospheric moist convection and large-scale circulation patterns. Here, a zonally symmetric model for the monsoon circulation is presented and solved numerically. The model is based on the Galerkin projection of the primitive equations of atmospheric synoptic dynamics onto the first modes of vertical structure to represent free tropospheric circulation and is coupled to a bulk atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) model. The model carries bulk equations for water vapor in both the free troposphere and the ABL, while the processes of convection and precipitation are represented through a stochastic model for clouds. The model equations are coupled through advective nonlinearities, and the resulting system is not conservative and not necessarily hyperbolic. This makes the design of a numerical method for the solution of this system particularly difficult. Here, we develop a numerical scheme based on the operator time-splitting strategy, which decomposes the system into three pieces: a conservative part and two purely advective parts, each of which is solved iteratively using an appropriate method. The conservative system is solved via a central scheme, which does not require hyperbolicity since it avoids the Riemann problem by design. One of the advective parts is a hyperbolic diagonal matrix, which is easily handled by classical methods for hyperbolic equations, while the other advective part is a nilpotent matrix, which is solved via the method of lines. Validation tests using a synthetic exact solution are presented, and formal second-order convergence under grid refinement is demonstrated. Moreover, the model is tested under realistic monsoon conditions, and the ability of the model to simulate key features of the monsoon circulation is illustrated in two distinct parameter regimes.

Coastal upwelling and downwelling forcing of circulation in a semi-enclosed bay: Ria de Vigo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barton, E. D.; Largier, J. L.; Torres, R.; Sheridan, M.; Trasviña, A.; Souza, A.; Pazos, Y.; Valle-Levinson, A.

2015-05-01

Semi-enclosed bays in upwelling regions are exposed to forcing related to winds, currents and buoyancy over the shelf. The influence of this external forcing is moderated by factors such as connectivity to the open ocean, shelter by surrounding topography, dimensions of the bay, and freshwater outflows. Such bays, preferred locations for ports, mariculture, marine industry, recreational activities and coastal settlement, present a range of characteristics, understanding of which is necessary to their rational management. Observations in such a semi-enclosed bay, the Ria de Vigo in Spain, are used to characterize the influence of upwelling and downwelling pulses on its circulation. In this location, near the northern limit of the Iberian upwelling system, upwelling events dominate during a short summer season and downwelling events the rest of the year. The ria response to the external forcing is central to nutrient supply and resultant plankton productivity that supports its high level of cultured mussel production. Intensive field studies in September 2006 and June 2007 captured a downwelling event and an upwelling event, respectively. Data from eight current profiler moorings and boat-based MiniBat/ADCP surveys provided an unprecedented quasi-synoptic view of the distribution of water masses and circulation patterns in any ria. In the outer ria, circulation was dominated by the introduction of wind-driven alongshore flow from the external continental shelf through the ria entrances and its interaction with the topography. In the middle ria, circulation was primarily related to the upwelling/downwelling cycle, with a cool, salty and dense lower layer penetrating to the inner ria during upwelling over the shelf. A warmer, lower salinity and less dense surface layer of coastal waters flowed inward during downwelling. Without external forcing, the inner ria responded primarily to tides and buoyancy changes related to land runoff. Under both upwelling and downwelling conditions, the flushing of the ria involved shelf responses to wind pulses. Their persistence for a few days was sufficient to allow waters from the continental shelf to penetrate the innermost ria. Longer term observations supported by numerical modeling are required to confirm the generality of such flushing events in the ria and determine their typical frequency, while comparative studies should explore how these scenarios fit into the range of conditions experienced in other semi-enclosed bays.

Regional variability of the frequency distribution of daily precipitation and the synoptic characteristics of heavy precipitation events in present and future climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeAngelis, Anthony M.

Changes in the characteristics of daily precipitation in response to global warming may have serious impacts on human life and property. An analysis of precipitation in climate models is performed to evaluate how well the models simulate the present climate and how precipitation may change in the future. Models participating in phase 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) have substantial biases in their simulation of heavy precipitation intensity over parts of North America during the 20th century. Despite these biases, the large-scale atmospheric circulation accompanying heavy precipitation is either simulated realistically or the strength of the circulation is overestimated. The biases are not related to the large-scale flow in a simple way, pointing toward the importance of other model deficiencies, such as coarse horizontal resolution and convective parameterizations, for the accurate simulation of intense precipitation. Although the models may not sufficiently simulate the intensity of precipitation, their realistic portrayal of the large-scale circulation suggests that projections of future precipitation may be reliable. In the CMIP5 ensemble, the distribution of daily precipitation is projected to undergo substantial changes in response to future atmospheric warming. The regional distribution of these changes was investigated, revealing that dry days and days with heavy-extreme precipitation are projected to increase at the expense of light-moderate precipitation over much of the middle and low latitudes. Such projections have serious implications for future impacts from flood and drought events. In other places, changes in the daily precipitation distribution are characterized by a shift toward either wetter or drier conditions in the future, with heavy-extreme precipitation projected to increase in all but the driest subtropical subsidence regions. Further analysis shows that increases in heavy precipitation in midlatitudes are largely explained by thermodynamics, including increases in atmospheric water vapor. However, in low latitudes and northern high latitudes, changes in vertical velocity accompanying heavy precipitation are also important. The strength of the large-scale atmospheric circulation is projected to change in accordance with vertical velocity in many places, though the circulation patterns, and therefore physical mechanisms that generate heavy precipitation, may remain the same.

Lifestyles of the palaeoproterozoic stromatolite builders in the Vempalle Sea, Cuddapah Basin, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patranabis-Deb, Sarbani; Majumder, Tuasha; Khan, Sayani

2018-05-01

The distribution and changing pattern of stromatolites in the Vempalle Formation of the Cuddapah Basin, India, have been investigated with emphasis on external morphologies, internal fabrics, growth patterns and sediment associations. The stromatolitic limestone occurs in a low angle ramp type carbonate platform, with complete exposures from shallow shelf to basinal facies, provides record of changes in reef-building capacity of stromatolites with change in the depositional milieu. Changing pattern and style of the stromatolites clearly reflect depth partitioned growth of the microbial community. Small and scattered stromatolites, commonly with wavy parallel laminations or stratifications occurred in inner-ramp settings, where they are build up to the sea level. Tepee structure and desiccation cracks in associated sediments and salt pseudomorphs point to shallow water to occasional exposure condition. Large bioherms with columnar and conical stromatolites developed in the headland (mid ramp), which were in continuous interaction with strong waves of the open sea. Growth of the bioherms changed the landform with time and generated a high sloping edge with a sheer drop that extended out into the sea, forming distally steepened ramp. Outer ramp lithofacies characterized by thick layers of shale succession with thin beds of laterally persistent stromatolitic beds with low synoptic relief build-ups. These biotic components, along with the absence of wave-related structures, place the outer ramp below the base of wave action zone. Ooid banks developed in the mid ramp area are in the high surfing zone. High flux of nutrients and high-light show positive correlation; thus the high growth pattern is best observed within the photic zone where wave action is maximum. The ability to change from low synoptic relief algal laminites to high synoptic relief columnar stromatolites point to their adaptive power. The key factor that controlled the shape of these Palaeoproterozoic stromatolites is the dynamic interactions between mat growth, currents and sediment supply. Presence of concentric and radial fibrous ooids indicates change in climate and salinity of the sea.

Synoptic backgrounds of the widest wildfire in Mazandaran Province of Iran during December 11-13, 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghavidel, Yousef; Farajzadeh, Manuchehr; Khaleghi Babaei, Meysam

2016-12-01

In this paper, atmospheric origins of the widest wildfire in Mazandaran province on 11-13th of December, 2010 have been investigated. Data sets of this research include maximum daily temperature (MDT), minimum relative humidity (MRH) of terrestrial stations, dynamic and thermodynamic features of the atmosphere, Gridded data sets of Self-Calibrated Palmer drought severity index (SCPDSI) and global drought dataset standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and data related to the time and the extent of the wildfire. The ``environmental to circulation'' approach to synoptic classification has been used to investigate relationships between local-scale surface environment (wildfire) and the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation conditions. Results of study show that during the 3-day wide wildfire, the average of MDT and the MRH was significantly different from the long-term average. During the aforementioned wildfire, the average of MDT in Mazandaran province was 26 °C and the average of MRH was reported 35 %. The long-term average of MDT and the MRH in Mazandaran province during 3 days of wildfire was 12.3 °C and 68 %, respectively. Therefore, the MDT has a positive abnormality of 13.7 °C and the MRH has a negative abnormality of 33 %. In addition, monthly SCPDSI and SPEI indicated severe drought conditions at December 2010 in Mazandaran. Analysis of SLP maps shows that during the 3-day fire, a pressure center of 1110 hPa on Persian Gulf and a very low-pressure center on Turkey and Asia Minor were created. Normally, this event has caused the pressure gradient and warm and dry air advection from Arabian Peninsula to higher longitudes, particularly Mazandaran province. Consequently, the MDT increased and the wildfire of Mazandaran forest took place in an area of 220 ha. Zonal wind maps signify the weakness of Zonal wind and meridional wind maps show the southern direction of meridional wind flow during the wide wildfire. Moreover, Omega maps prove that during the aforementioned wildfire, the Omega flow has been positive and the warm air flow has subsidence. This made the infusion of warm air and increased the MDT substantially and consequently the wildfire occurrence was facilitated. Temperature advection maps showed that in the level of 1000 hPa, the warm air blowing source is originated from Arabian Peninsula, in the level of 850 hPa from the Arabian Peninsula and Iraq and in the level of 700 and 500 hPa from Ethiopia, Arabian Peninsula and Iraq. The Hybrid-Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model outputs confirm the synoptic mechanisms for the discussed wildfire.

The role of atmospheric diagnosis and Big Data science in improving hydroclimatic extreme prediction and the merits of climate informed prediction for future water resources management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Mengqian; Lall, Upmanu

2017-04-01

The threats that hydroclimatic extremes pose to sustainable development, safety and operation of infrastructure are both severe and growing. Recent heavy precipitation triggered flood events in many regions and increasing frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation suggested by various climate projections highlight the importance of understanding the associated hydrometeorological patterns and space-time variability of such extreme events, and developing a new approach to improve predictability with a better estimation of uncertainty. This clear objective requires the optimal utility of Big Data analytics on multi-source datasets to extract informative predictors from the complex ocean-atmosphere coupled system and develop a statistical and physical based framework. The proposed presentation includes the essence of our selected works in the past two years, as part of our Global Floods Initiatives. Our approach for an improved extreme prediction begins with a better understanding of the associated atmospheric circulation patterns, under the influence and regulation of slowly changing oceanic boundary conditions [Lu et al., 2013, 2016a; Lu and Lall, 2016]. The study of the associated atmospheric circulation pattern and the regulation of teleconnected climate signals adopted data science techniques and statistical modeling recognizing the nonstationarity and nonlinearity of the system, as the underlying statistical assumptions of the classical extreme value frequency analysis are challenged in hydroclimatic studies. There are two main factors that are considered important for understanding how future flood risk will change. One is the consideration of moisture holding capacity as a function of temperature, as suggested by Clausius-Clapeyron equation. The other is the strength of the convergence or convection associated with extreme precipitation. As convergence or convection gets stronger, rain rates can be expected to increase if the moisture is available. For extreme rainfall events in the mid-latitudes, tropical moisture sources related to strong convection from equatorial oceans were identified together with atmospheric circulation conditions that in favor of consistent transport and convergence of moisture [Lu et al., 2013; Lu and Lall, 2016]. Further, [Lu et al., 2016a] linked the influence of the slowly changing oceanic boundary conditions with the development of the global atmospheric circulation and showed that (1) strong convection over the oceans and the atmospheric moisture transport and flow convergence indicated by atmospheric pressure fields can determine where and when extreme precipitation occurs; and (2) the time-lagged spatial relationship between teleconnected oceanic signals and synoptic atmospheric circulations can improve the predictability of extreme precipitation globally over the next 30 days; such a forecast would be potentially very useful for flood preparation at a lead time that is well beyond the lead time of meteorological forecasts, and it corresponds to a gap in the predictability between quantitative precipitation forecasts and seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction. Lastly, we will demonstrate our most recent results showing the merits of utilizing climate informed forecasts for water resources management, considering irrigation supply, hydropower and flood control, with marked-based financial instruments [Lu et al., 2016b].

Dynamical Meteorology of the Equatorial and Extratropical Stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunkerton, Tomothy

1999-01-01

Observational studies were performed of westward propagating synoptic scale waves in the tropical troposphere, the structure of monsoon circulations in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, and zonally propagating features in deep tropical convection. The effect of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) were investigated, and a numerical study of the QBO was performed using a two-dimensional model, highlighting the role of gravity waves in the momentum balance of the QBO. Vertical coupling of the troposphere and stratosphere was examined in polar regions on intraseasonal and interannual timescales. A deep circumpolar mode was discovered, now known as the Arctic Oscillation.

Regional Analysis of Long-term Local and Synoptic Effects on Wind Velocity and Energy Patterns in Complex Terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belu, R.; Koracin, D. R.

2017-12-01

Investments in renewable energy are justified in both environmental and economic terms. Climate change risks call for mitigation strategies aimed to reduce pollutant emissions, while the energy supply is facing high uncertainty by the current or future global economic and political contexts. Wind energy is playing a strategic role in the efforts of any country for sustainable development and energy supply security. Wind energy is a weather and climate-dependent resource, having a natural spatio-temporal variability at time scales ranging from fraction of seconds to seasons and years, while at spatial scales is strongly affected by the topography and vegetation. Main objective of the study is to investigate spatio-temporal characteristics of the wind velocity in the Southwest U.S., that are relevant to wind energy assessment, analysis, development, operation, and grid integration, by using long-term multiple meteorological tower observations. Wind velocity data and other meteorological parameters from five towers, located near Tonopah, Nevada, operated between 2003 to 2008, and from three towers are located in Carson Valley, Nevada, operated between 2006 and 2014 were used in this study. Multi-annual wind speed data collected did not show significant increase trends with increasing elevation; the differences are mainly governed by the topographic complexity, including local atmospheric circulations. Auto- and cross-correlations show a strong coherence between the wind speed and direction with slowly decreasing amplitude of the multi-day periodicity with increasing lag periods. Besides pronounced diurnal periodicity at all locations, detrended fluctuation analysis also showed significant seasonal and annual periodicities, and long-memory persistence with similar characteristics. In spite of significant differences in mean wind speeds among the towers, due to location specifics, the relatively high auto- and cross-correlation coefficients among the towers indicate that the regional synoptic processes are dominant for wind variability.

Synoptic climatological analysis of persistent cold air pools over the Carpathian Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szabóné André, Karolina; Bartholy, Judit; Pongrácz, Rita

2016-04-01

A persistent cold air pool (PCAP) is a winter-time, anticyclone-related weather event over a relatively large basin. During this time the air is colder near the surface than aloft. This inversion near the surface can last even for weeks. As the cold air cools down, relative humidity increases and fog forms. The entire life cycle of a PCAP depends on the large scale circulation pattern. PCAP usually appears when an anticyclone builds up after a cold front passed over the examined basin, and it is usually destructed by a coming strong cold front of another midlatitude cyclone. Moreover, the intensity of the anticyclone affects the intensity of the PCAP. PCAP may result in different hazards for the population: (1) Temperature inversion in the surface layers together with weak wind may lead to severe air pollution causing health problems for many people, especially, elderly and children. (2) The fog and/or smog during chilly weather conditions often results in freezing rain. Both fog and freezing rain can distract transportation and electricity supply. Unfortunately, the numerical weather prediction models have difficulties to predict PCAP formation and destruction. One of the reasons is that PCAP is not defined objectively with a simple formula, which could be easily applied to the numerical output data. However, according to some recommendations from the synoptic literature, the shallow convective potential energy (SCPE) can be used to mathematically describe PCAP. In this study, we used the ERA-Interim reanalysis datasets to examine this very specific weather event (i.e., PCAP) over the Carpathian Basin. The connection between the mean sea level pressure and some PCAP measures (e.g., SCPE, energy deficit, etc.) is evaluated. For instance, we used logistic regression to identify PCAP periods over the Carpathian Basin. Then, further statistical analysis includes the evaluation of the length and intensity of these PCAP periods.

Three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation: part I—decomposition model and theorems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Shujuan; Chou, Jifan; Cheng, Jianbo

2018-04-01

In order to study the interactions between the atmospheric circulations at the middle-high and low latitudes from the global perspective, the authors proposed the mathematical definition of three-pattern circulations, i.e., horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations with which the actual atmospheric circulation is expanded. This novel decomposition method is proved to accurately describe the actual atmospheric circulation dynamics. The authors used the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to calculate the climate characteristics of those three-pattern circulations, and found that the decomposition model agreed with the observed results. Further dynamical analysis indicates that the decomposition model is more accurate to capture the major features of global three dimensional atmospheric motions, compared to the traditional definitions of Rossby wave, Hadley circulation and Walker circulation. The decomposition model for the first time realized the decomposition of global atmospheric circulation using three orthogonal circulations within the horizontal, meridional and zonal planes, offering new opportunities to study the large-scale interactions between the middle-high latitudes and low latitudes circulations.

Synoptic Patterns Related to Tropical Cyclone Recurvature

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-03-01

STY :Yfarge. Dominant and secondary contour patterns (Fig. 3.2) are identified and the angular difference (Table 5) between the pattern and the best...DATA l\\LVL/4/ DATA VRU/’ 1’/,VRV/𔃼’/ c DATA C/.0436610743/ ,DD/ 114.5915590262/ 1\\AYIELIST/~GRID/ 0:\\ VST ,:\\EST,l\\STH,l\\l\\TH c EQUIV ALE:\\CE...READ (5,:\\GRID) \\VRITE (6,:\\GRID) l\\1 = i\\\\ VST + l\\EST + 1 :\\J = 1\\STH + 1\\NTH + 1 IuCOYIP=20 IVCOl’viP= 20 0:RECU=O 1’\\RECV=O C** READ IN NO

A TRAJECTORY-CLUSTERING CORRELATION METHODOLOGY FOR EXAMINING THE LONG-RANGE TRANSPORT OF AIR POLLUTANTS. (R825260)

EPA Science Inventory

We present a robust methodology for examining the relationship between synoptic-scale atmospheric transport patterns and pollutant concentration levels observed at a site. Our approach entails calculating a large number of back-trajectories from the observational site over a long...

Comparison of Surface Mountain Climate With Equivalent Free Air Parameters Extracted From NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis: Kilimanjaro, Tanzania.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pepin, N. C.; Hardy, D.; Duane, W.; Losleben, M.

2007-12-01

It is difficult to predict future climate changes in areas of complex relief, since mountains generate their own climates distinct from the free atmosphere. Thus trends in climate at the mountain surface are different from those in the free air. We compare surface climate (temperature and vapour pressure) measured at seven elevations on the south-western slope of Kilimanjaro, the tallest free standing mountain in Africa, with equivalent observations in the free atmosphere from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for September 2004 to January 2006. Correlations between daily surface and free air temperature anomalies are greatest at low elevations below 2500 metres, meaning that synoptic (inter-diurnal) variability is the major control here. However, temperatures and moisture on the higher slopes above the treeline (3000 m) are decoupled from the free atmosphere, showing intense heating/cooling by day/night and import of moisture from lower elevations during the day. The lower forested slopes thus act as a moisture source, with large vapour pressure excesses reported in comparison with the free atmosphere (>5 hPa) which move upslope during daylight and subside downslope at night. Strong seasonal contrasts are shown in the vigour of the montane thermal circulation, but interactions with free air circulation (as represented by flow indices developed from reanalysis wind components) are complex. Upper air flow strength and direction (at 500 mb) have limited influence on surface heating and upslope moisture advection, which are dominated by the diurnal cycle rather than inter-diurnal synoptic controls. Thus local changes in surface characteristics (e.g. deforestation) could have a direct influence on the mountain climate of Kilimanjaro, making the upper slopes somewhat divorced from larger scale advective changes associated with global warming.

WRF Simulation of the Genesis of Hurricane Javier (2004) in the Eastern Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, Scott A.

2005-01-01

The Eastern Pacific has the highest frequency of genesis events per unit area of any region worldwide (Elsberry et al 1987). African easterly waves, mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), and topographic effects are thought to play roles in the genesis of tropical cyclones there (Frank and Clark 1980, Velasco and Fritsch 1987, Zehnder 1991, Zehnder and Gall 1991; Farfan and Zehnder 1997). Mozer and Zehnder (1996), using dry, idealized simulations of flow past a large-scale three-dimensional mountain range comparable to the Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico, showed that upstream flow blocking led to diversion of the flow primarily to the south of the mountains. This flow diversion led to the formation of a low-level, barotropically unstable jet (at a location comparable to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec) and the continuous formation of synoptic-scale vorticity maxima, which they suggested may play a role in tropical cyclogenesis. Farfan and Zehnder (1 997) examined the synoptic-scale circulations that led to the formation of Hurricane Guillermo (1991). Using numerical simulations, they found that flow blocking led to the formation of a low-level easterly jet south of the mountains of Central America and a northeasterly (gap flow) jet over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, which combined with the flow associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to produce a closed cyclonic circulation in the location of Guillermo s formation. As will be discussed in this paper, the evolution of the flow field that was associated with the genesis of Hurricane Javier was similar to that described in Farfan and Zehnder (1997), with well-defined topographic flow features. Here, using a high- resolution simulation with the WRF model, we investigate whether these topographically induced flows played a significant role in the genesis of Javier.

An operational mesoscale ensemble data assimilation and prediction system: E-RTFDDA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Hopson, T.; Roux, G.; Hacker, J.; Xu, M.; Warner, T.; Swerdlin, S.

2009-04-01

Mesoscale (2-2000 km) meteorological processes differ from synoptic circulations in that mesoscale weather changes rapidly in space and time, and physics processes that are parameterized in NWP models play a great role. Complex interactions of synoptic circulations, regional and local terrain, land-surface heterogeneity, and associated physical properties, and the physical processes of radiative transfer, cloud and precipitation and boundary layer mixing, are crucial in shaping regional weather and climate. Mesoscale ensemble analysis and prediction should sample the uncertainties of mesoscale modeling systems in representing these factors. An innovative mesoscale Ensemble Real-Time Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (E-RTFDDA) and forecasting system has been developed at NCAR. E-RTFDDA contains diverse ensemble perturbation approaches that consider uncertainties in all major system components to produce multi-scale continuously-cycling probabilistic data assimilation and forecasting. A 30-member E-RTFDDA system with three nested domains with grid sizes of 30, 10 and 3.33 km has been running on a Department of Defense high-performance computing platform since September 2007. It has been applied at two very different US geographical locations; one in the western inter-mountain area and the other in the northeastern states, producing 6 hour analyses and 48 hour forecasts, with 4 forecast cycles a day. The operational model outputs are analyzed to a) assess overall ensemble performance and properties, b) study terrain effect on mesoscale predictability, c) quantify the contribution of different ensemble perturbation approaches to the overall forecast skill, and d) assess the additional contributed skill from an ensemble calibration process based on a quantile-regression algorithm. The system and the results will be reported at the meeting.

Role of the Angola Low in modulating southern African austral summer rainfall and relationships with synoptic and interannual modes of variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crétat, Julien; Pohl, Benjamin; Dieppois, Bastien

2017-04-01

The Angola Low has been suggested in many previous studies to be an important regional feature governing southern African rainfall variability during austral summer, which is, in particular, expressed through modulations of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts on rainfall at the interannual timescale. Here, we analyse a variety of state-of-the-art reanalyses (NCEP2, ERA-Interim and MERRA2) and rainfall data (in situ rain-gauges and satellite-derived products) for: i) identifying the recurrent regimes of the Angola Low (position and intensity) at the daily timescale; ii) diagnosing how they modulate the spatio-temporal variability of austral summer rainfall; and iii) examining their relationships with synoptic convective regimes and ENSO, both at the interannual timescale. The recurrent regimes of the Angola Low are identified over the 1980-2015 period by applying a cluster analysis to daily 700-hPa wind vorticity anomalies over the Angola sector from November to March. The exact number and morphological properties of vorticity regimes vary significantly among the reanalyses, in particular when using the lowest spatial resolution reanalysis (i.e., NCEP2) that leads to detect less diversity, smoothest patterns and weakest intensity across the recurrent regimes. Despite such uncertainties, the regimes describing active Angola Low are quite robust among the reanalyses. Three preferential locations (locked over eastern Angola, shifted few degrees eastward or south-westward), which significantly impact on the rainfall spatial distribution over tropical and subtropical southern Africa, are identified. Independently from its location, Angola Low favours moisture advection from the southwest Indian Ocean and reduces moisture export towards the southeast Atlantic, hence contributing to increase moisture convergence over the subcontinent. Lead/lag correlations with synoptic convective regimes suggest that Angola Low may be a local precursor of tropical-temperate troughs, but this relationship is far from being systematic and quite sensitive to the reanalyses. Finally, the influence of ENSO on the seasonal occurrence of active Angola Low appears to be highly dependent on the choice of the reanalyses. For instance, active Angola Low tends to be independent from ENSO in NCEP2, while it is clearly driven by ENSO, through increasing occurrence during La Niña conditions, in ERA-Interim and MERRA2. Our results point thus toward strong uncertainties in state-of-the-art reanalyses for studying regional circulation features, and their connection with large-scale climate dynamics at the interannual timescale.

A new multi-proxy reconstruction of Atlantic deep ocean circulation during the warm mid-Pliocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riesselman, C. R.; Dowsett, H. J.; Scher, H. D.; Robinson, M. M.

2011-12-01

The mid-Pliocene (3.264 - 3.025 Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history with sustained global temperatures in the range of warming predicted for the 21st century, providing an appealing analog with which to examine the Earth system changes we might encounter in the coming century. Ongoing sea surface and deep ocean temperature reconstructions and coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model simulations by the USGS PRISM (Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) Group identify a dramatic North Atlantic warm anomaly coupled with increased evaporation in the mid-Pliocene, possibly driving enhanced meridional overturning circulation and North Atlantic Deep Water production. However deep ocean temperature is not a conclusive proxy for water mass, and most coupled model simulations predict transient decreases in North Atlantic Deep Water production in 21st century, presenting a contrasting picture of future warmer worlds. Here, we present early results from a new multi-proxy reconstruction of Atlantic deep ocean circulation during the warm mid-Pliocene, using δ13C of benthic foraminifera as a proxy for water mass age and the neodymium isotopic imprint on fossil fish teeth as a proxy for water mass source region along a three-site depth transect from the Walvis Ridge (subtropical South Atlantic). The deep ocean circulation reconstructions resulting from this project will add a new dimension to the PRISM effort and will be useful for both initialization and evaluation of future model simulations.

Impact of the Rhône and Durance valleys on sea-breeze circulation in the Marseille area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bastin, Sophie; Drobinski, Philippe; Dabas, Alain; Delville, Patricia; Reitebuch, Oliver; Werner, Christian

2005-03-01

Sea-breeze dynamics in the Marseille area, in the south of France, is investigated in the framework of the ESCOMPTE experiment conducted during summer 2001 in order to evaluate the role of thermal circulations on pollutant transport and ventilation. Under particular attention in this paper is the sea-breeze channelling by the broad Rhône valley and the narrow Durance valley, both oriented nearly-north-south, i.e., perpendicular to the coastline, and its possible impact on the sea-breeze penetration, intensity and depth, which are key information for air pollution issues. One situation of slight synoptic pressure gradient leading to a northerly flow in the Rhône valley (25 June 2001) and one situation of a weak onshore prevailing synoptic wind (26 June 2001) are compared. The impact of the Rhône and Durance valleys on the sea-breeze dynamics on these two typical days is generalized to the whole ESCOMPTE observing period. The present study shows by combining simple scaling analysis with wind data from meteorological surface stations and Doppler lidars that (i) the Durance valley always affects the sea breeze by accelerating the flow. A consequence is that the Durance valley contributes to weaken the temperature gradient along the valley and thus the sea-breeze circulation. In some cases, the acceleration of the channelled flow in the Durance valley suppresses the sea-breeze flow by temperature gradient inhibition; (ii) the Rhône valley does not generally affect the sea breeze significantly. However, if the sea breeze is combined with an onshore flow, it leads to further penetration inland and intensification of the low-level southerly flow. In this situation, lateral constriction may accelerate the sea breeze. Simple scaling analysis suggests that Saint Paul (44.35°N, about 100 km from the coastline) is the lower limit where sea breeze can be affected by the Rhône valley. These conclusions have implications in air quality topics as channelled sea breeze may advect far inland pollutants which may be incorporated into long-range transport, particularly in the Durance valley.

Relationship between atmospheric circulation weather types and seasonal precipitation in Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putniković, Suzana; Tošić, Ivana

2017-04-01

An automated version of the Lamb weather type classification scheme was used to classify daily circulation types over Serbia. The synoptic characteristics of 26 weather types and their relative frequencies are discussed for spring and autumn, complementing research previously published by Putniković et al. (Meteorol Atmos Phys 128:649-662, 2016) for winter and summer. Trends of the circulation types are presented, as well as precipitation trends during the period 1961-2010. Precipitation was modeled by the stepwise regression at six stations, defining weather types as independent variables. The anticyclonic (A) type is the most frequent class occurring in autumn (23.87%), displaying a positive trend for spring and significant negative trend for autumn. The frequencies of anticyclonic and cyclonic (C) types are almost the same for spring: 14.33 and 14.02%, respectively. The C type shows a significant negative trend only in spring. The increasing trend of the frequency of the C types and decreasing trend of the A types are in agreement with the increasing trend of precipitation in Serbia during autumn. Results suggest that the C type affects precipitation occurrence over most of the country, while the remaining 25 types provide more negligible or regional contributions to precipitation.

The influence of mid-latitude storm tracks on hot, cold, dry and wet extremes

PubMed Central

Lehmann, Jascha; Coumou, Dim

2015-01-01

Changes in mid-latitude circulation can strongly affect the number and intensity of extreme weather events. In particular, high-amplitude quasi-stationary planetary waves have been linked to prolonged weather extremes at the surface. In contrast, analyses of fast-traveling synoptic-scale waves and their direct influence on heat and cold extremes are scarce though changes in such waves have been detected and are projected for the 21st century. Here we apply regression analyses of synoptic activity with surface temperature and precipitation in monthly gridded observational data. We show that over large parts of mid-latitude continental regions, summer heat extremes are associated with low storm track activity. In winter, the occurrence of cold spells is related to low storm track activity over parts of eastern North America, Europe, and central- to eastern Asia. Storm tracks thus have a moderating effect on continental temperatures. Pronounced storm track activity favors monthly rainfall extremes throughout the year, whereas dry spells are associated with a lack thereof. Trend analyses reveal significant regional changes in recent decades favoring the occurrence of cold spells in the eastern US, droughts in California and heat extremes over Eurasia. PMID:26657163

Misty picture weather-watch and microbarograph project: Experiments 9412-14-18

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reed, J.W.; Church, H.W.; Huck, T.W.

1987-01-01

Special meteorological observations and predictions for MISTY PICTURE are described. Ground zero measurements of winds and temperatures were used to develop predictions for needed light winds during the night for deployment of the helium bag for the precursor experiment. This also entailed correlations with the White Sands network of automated surface observation stations as well as general circulation and upper air reports from the regional synoptic weather observing and reporting network. Pilot balloon observations of upper winds and Tethersonde observations were made during bag deployment to further document local circulation developments. During the test countdown, radiosonde balloon observations of uppermore » air temperatures and winds were made to allow prediction of atmospheric effects on airblast propagation that could break windows to nearly 200 km range from the MISTY PICTURE explosion yield. These data indicated that there would be no strong off-site propagations on shot day, but at shot time the weak convergence zone in the shot area disturbed the wind pattern and generated a northwestward sound duct. Some banded airblast focusing resulted that gave relatively high overpressures just south of the Admin Park, at the Observer's Area, and in San Antonio where a number of windows were claimed broken. Relatively weak blasts, between caustics or foci, were recorded by microbarographs at Admin Park, Stallion, and Socorro. Very weak and barely detectable waves were propagated eastward to Carrizozo where MINOR SCALE had broken windows in 1985, and to the southeast toward Tularosa and Alamogordo. Five microbarograph stations were also operated around the west side of a 200 km radius circle, to document airblast waves ducted and focused by relatively high temperatures and easterly monsoon winds near 50 km altitudes. 15 refs., 39 figs., 16 tabs.« less

Observations of Martian surface winds at the Viking Lander 1 site

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, James R.; Leovy, Conway B.; Tillman, James E.

1990-01-01

Martian surface winds at the Viking Lander 1 have been reconstructed using signals from partially failed wind instrumentation. Winds during early summer were controlled by regional topography, and then underwent a transition to a regime controlled by the Hadley circulation. Diurnal wind oscillations were controlled primarily by regional topography and boundary layer forcing, although a global mode may have been influencing them during two brief episodes. Semidiurnal wind oscillations were controlled by the westward-propagating semidiurnal tide from sol 210 onward. Comparison of the synoptic variations at the two sites suggests that the same eastward propagating wave trains were present at both sites.

Network analysis reveals multiscale controls on streamwater chemistry

Treesearch

Kevin J. McGuire; Christian E. Torgersen; Gene E. Likens; Donald C. Buso; Winsor H. Lowe; Scott W. Bailey

2014-01-01

By coupling synoptic data from a basin-wide assessment of streamwater chemistry with network-based geostatistical analysis, we show that spatial processes differentially affect biogeochemical condition and pattern across a headwater stream network. We analyzed a high-resolution dataset consisting of 664 water samples collected every 100 m throughout 32 tributaries in...

Race, Memory, and Master Narratives: A Critical Essay on U.S. Curriculum History

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Anthony L.; Au, Wayne

2014-01-01

The field of curriculum studies has a history of looking at its own past, summarizing and synthesizing the trends and patterns across its foundations. Whether through synoptic texts, historical analyses, or edited collections, the field's foundational retrospection typically traces a lineage of curriculum studies that runs through various…

Thunderstorm incidence in southeastern Brazil estimated from different data sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinto, O., Jr.; Naccarato, K. P.; Pinto, I. R. C. A.

2013-07-01

This paper describes a comparative analysis of the thunderstorm incidence in southeastern Brazil obtained from thunderstorm days observed at two different epochs (from 1910 to 1951 and from 1971 to 1984) and from lightning data provided by the Brazilian lightning location system RINDAT (from 1999 to 2006) and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite (from 1998 to 2010). The results are interpreted in terms of the main synoptic patterns associated with thunderstorm activity in this region, indicating that the prevailing synoptic pattern associated with thunderstorm activity is the occurrence of frontal systems and their modulation by the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and topography. Evidence of urban effects is also found. The results are also discussed in the context of practical applications involving their use in the Brazilian lightning protection standards, suggesting that the present version of the Brazilian standards should be revised incorporating RINDAT and LIS data. Finally, the results are important to improve our knowledge about the limitations of the different techniques used to record the thunderstorm activity and support future climatic studies.

Influence of ENSO on Gulf Stream cyclogenesis and the North Atlantic storm track

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, C.; Schemm, S.; Ciasto, L.; Kvamsto, N. G.

2015-12-01

There is emerging evidence that climate in the North Atlantic-European sector is sensitive to vacillations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, in particular, the central Pacific flavour of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and concomitant trends in atmospheric heating. The frequency of central Pacific ENSOs appears to have increased over the last decades and some studies suggest it may continue increasing in the future, but the precise mechanisms by which these events affect the North Atlantic synoptic scale circulation are poorly understood. Here, we show that central Pacific ENSOs influence where midlatitude cyclogenesis occurs over the Gulf Stream, producing more cyclogenesis in the jet exit region rather than in the climatologically preferred jet entrance region. The cyclones forming over the Gulf Stream in central Pacific ENSO seasons tend to veer north, penetrating deeper into the Arctic rather than into continental Europe. The shift in cyclogenesis is linked to changes in the large scale circulation, namely, the upper-level trough formed in the lee of the Rocky Mountains.

A Discrete Constraint for Entropy Conservation and Sound Waves in Cloud-Resolving Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeng, Xi-Ping; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Simpson, Joanne

2003-01-01

Ideal cloud-resolving models contain little-accumulative errors. When their domain is so large that synoptic large-scale circulations are accommodated, they can be used for the simulation of the interaction between convective clouds and the large-scale circulations. This paper sets up a framework for the models, using moist entropy as a prognostic variable and employing conservative numerical schemes. The models possess no accumulative errors of thermodynamic variables when they comply with a discrete constraint on entropy conservation and sound waves. Alternatively speaking, the discrete constraint is related to the correct representation of the large-scale convergence and advection of moist entropy. Since air density is involved in entropy conservation and sound waves, the challenge is how to compute sound waves efficiently under the constraint. To address the challenge, a compensation method is introduced on the basis of a reference isothermal atmosphere whose governing equations are solved analytically. Stability analysis and numerical experiments show that the method allows the models to integrate efficiently with a large time step.

Spaceborne imaging radar - Geologic and oceanographic applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elachi, C.

1980-01-01

Synoptic, large-area radar images of the earth's land and ocean surface, obtained from the Seasat orbiting spacecraft, show the potential for geologic mapping and for monitoring of ocean surface patterns. Structural and topographic features such as lineaments, anticlines, folds and domes, drainage patterns, stratification, and roughness units can be mapped. Ocean surface waves, internal waves, current boundaries, and large-scale eddies have been observed in numerous images taken by the Seasat imaging radar. This article gives an illustrated overview of these applications.

Numerical modeling and analysis of the effect of Greek complex topography on tornado genesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsangouras, I. T.; Pytharoulis, I.; Nastos, P. T.

2014-02-01

Tornadoes have been reported in Greece over the last decades in specific sub-geographical areas and have been associated with strong synoptic forcing. It is well known that meteorological conditions over Greece are affected at various scales by the significant variability of topography, the Ionian Sea at the west and the Aegean Sea at the east. However, there is still uncertainty regarding topography's importance on tornadic generation and development. The aim of this study is to investigate the role of topography in significant tornado genesis events that were triggered under strong synoptic scale forcing over Greece. Three tornado events that occurred over the last years in Thiva (Boeotia, 17 November 2007), Vrastema (Chalkidiki, 12 February 2010) and Vlychos (Lefkada, 20 September 2011) have been selected for numerical experiments. These events were associated with synoptic scale forcing, while their intensity was T4-T5 (Torro scale) and caused significant damage. The simulations were performed using the non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), initialized with ECMWF gridded analyses, with telescoping nested grids that allow the representation of atmospheric circulations ranging from the synoptic scale down to the meso scale. In the experiments the topography of the inner grid was modified by: (a) 0% (actual topography) and (b) -100% (without topography). The aim was to determine whether the occurrence of tornadoes - mainly identified by various severe weather instability indices - could be indicated by modifying topography. The main utilized instability variables concerned the Bulk Richardson number shear (BRN), the energy helicity index (EHI), the storm-relative environmental helicity (SRH) and the maximum convective available potential energy (MCAPE, for parcel with maximum theta-e). Additional a verification of model was conducted for every sensitivity experiment accompanied with analysis absolute vorticity budget. Numerical simulations revealed that the complex topography was denoted as an important factor during 17 November 2007 and 12 February 2010 events, based on EHI and BRN analyses. Topography around 20 September 2011 event was characterized as the least factor based on EHI, SRH, BRN analyses.

Numerical modeling and analysis of the effect of complex Greek topography on tornadogenesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsangouras, I. T.; Pytharoulis, I.; Nastos, P. T.

2014-07-01

Tornadoes have been reported in Greece over recent decades in specific sub-geographical areas and have been associated with strong synoptic forcing. While it has been established that meteorological conditions over Greece are affected at various scales by the significant variability of topography, the Ionian Sea to the west and the Aegean Sea to the east, there is still uncertainty regarding topography's importance on tornadic generation and development. The aim of this study is to investigate the role of topography in significant tornadogenesis events that were triggered under strong synoptic scale forcing over Greece. Three tornado events that occurred over the last years in Thebes (Boeotia, 17 November 2007), Vrastema (Chalkidiki, 12 February 2010) and Vlychos (Lefkada, 20 September 2011) were selected for numerical experiments. These events were associated with synoptic scale forcing, while their intensities were T4-T5 (on the TORRO scale), causing significant damage. The simulations were performed using the non-hydrostatic weather research and forecasting model (WRF), initialized by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) gridded analyses, with telescoping nested grids that allow for the representation of atmospheric circulations ranging from the synoptic scale down to the mesoscale. In the experiments, the topography of the inner grid was modified by: (a) 0% (actual topography) and (b) -100% (without topography), making an effort to determine whether the occurrence of tornadoes - mainly identified by various severe weather instability indices - could be indicated by modifying topography. The principal instability variables employed consisted of the bulk Richardson number (BRN) shear, the energy helicity index (EHI), the storm-relative environmental helicity (SRH), and the maximum convective available potential energy (MCAPE, for parcels with maximum θe). Additionally, a model verification was conducted for every sensitivity experiment accompanied by analysis of the absolute vorticity budget. Numerical simulations revealed that the complex topography constituted an important factor during the 17 November 2007 and 12 February 2010 events, based on EHI, SRH, BRN, and MCAPE analyses. Conversely, topography around the 20 September 2011 event was characterized as the least significant factor based on EHI, SRH, BRN, and MCAPE analyses.

The Impact of Sea Surface Temperature Front on Stratus-Sea Fog over the Yellow and East China Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, S.; Li, M.; Liu, F.

2013-12-01

A stratus-sea fog event occurred on 3 June 2011 over the Yellow and East China Seas (as shown in figure) is investigated observationally and numerically. Emphasis is put on the influences of the sea surface temperature front (SSTF) and of the synoptic circulations on the transition of stratus to sea fog. The southerly winds from a synoptic high pressure transport water vapor from the East China Sea to the Yellow Sea, while the subsidence induced by the high contributes to the formation of the temperature inversion on the top of the stratus or stratocumulus that appears mainly over the warm flank of a sea surface temperature front in the East China Sea. Forced by the SSTF, there is a secondary cell within the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), with a sinking branch on the cold flank and a rising one on the warm flank of the SSTF. This sinking branch, in phase with the synoptic subsidence, forces the stratus or stratocumulus to lower in the elevation getting close to the sea surface as these clouds move northward driven by the southerly winds. The cloud droplets can either reach to the sea surface directly or evaporate into water vapor that may condense again when coming close to the cold sea surface to form fog. In this later case, the stratus and fog may separate. The cooling effect of cold sea surface counteracts the adiabatic heating induced by the subsidence and thus helps the transition of stratus to sea fog in the southern Yellow Sea. By smoothing the SSTF in the numerical experiment, the secondary cell weakens and the sea fog patches shrink obviously over the cold flank of the SSTF though the synoptic subsidence and moist advection still exist. A conceptual model is suggested for the transition of stratus to sea fog in the Yellow and East China Seas, which is helpful for the forecast of sea fog over these areas. The satellite visible image of the stratus-fog event. The fog appears in the Yellow Sea and the stratocumulus in the East China Sea.

On the nature of rainfall in dry climate: Space-time patterns of convective rain cells over the Dead Sea region and their relations with synoptic state and flash flood generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belachsen, Idit; Marra, Francesco; Peleg, Nadav; Morin, Efrat

2017-04-01

Space-time patterns of rainfall are important climatic characteristics that influence runoff generation and flash flood magnitude. Their derivation requires high-resolution measurements to adequately represent the rainfall distribution, and is best provided by remote sensing tools. This need is further emphasized in dry climate regions, where rainfall is scarce and, often, local and highly variable. Our research is focused on understanding the nature of rainfall events in the dry Dead Sea region (Eastern Mediterranean) by identifying and characterizing the spatial structure and the dynamics of convective storm cores (known as rain cells). To do so, we take advantage of 25 years of corrected and gauge-adjusted weather radar data. A statistical analysis of convective rain-cells spatial and temporal characteristics was performed with respect to synoptic pattern, geographical location, and flash flood generation. Rain cells were extracted from radar data using a cell segmentation method and a tracking algorithm and were divided into rain events. A total of 10,500 rain cells, 2650 cell tracks and 424 rain events were elicited. Rain cell properties, such as mean areal and maximal rain intensity, area, life span, direction and speed, were derived. Rain events were clustered, according to several ERA-Interim atmospheric parameters, and associated with three main synoptic patterns: Cyprus Low, Low to the East of the study region and Active Red Sea Trough. The first two originate from the Mediterranean Sea, while the third is an extension of the African monsoon. On average, the convective rain cells in the region are 90 km2 in size, moving from West to East in 13 ms-1 and living 18 minutes. Several significant differences between rain cells of the various synoptic types were observed. In particular, Active Red Sea Trough rain cells are characterized by higher rain intensities and lower speeds, suggesting a higher flooding potential for small catchments. The north-south negative gradient of mean annual rainfall in the study region was found to be negatively correlated with rain cells intensity and positively correlated with rain cells area. Additional analysis was done for convective rain cells over two nearby catchments located in the central part of the study region, by ascribing some of the rain events to observed flash-flood events. It was found that rain events associated with flash-floods have higher maximal rain cell intensity and lower minimal cell speed than rain events that did not lead to a flash-flood in the watersheds. This information contributes to our understanding of rain patterns over the dry area of the Dead Sea and their connection to flash-floods. The statistical distributions of rain cells properties can be used for high space-time resolution stochastic simulations of rain storms that can serve as an input to hydrological models.

The influence of scales of atmospheric motion on air pollution over Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, Ana; Trigo, Ricardo; Mendes, Manuel; Jerez, Sonia; Gouveia, Célia Marina

2014-05-01

Air pollution is determined by the combination of different factors, namely, emissions, physical constrains, meteorology and chemical processes [1,2,3]. The relative importance of such factors is influenced by their interaction on diverse scales of atmospheric motion. Each scale depicts different meteorological conditions, which, when combined with the different air pollution sources and photochemistry, result in varying ambient concentrations [2]. Identifying the dominant scales of atmospheric motion over a given airshed can be of great importance for many applications such as air pollution and pollen dispersion or wind energy management [2]. Portugal has been affected by numerous air pollution episodes during the last decade. These episodes are often related to peak emissions from local industry or transport, but can also be associated to regional transport from other urban areas or to exceptional emission events, such as forest fires. This research aims to identify the scales of atmospheric motion which contribute to an increase of air pollution. A method is proposed for differentiating between the scales of atmospheric motion that can be applied on a daily basis from data collected at several wind-measuring sites in a given airshed and to reanalysis datasets. The method is based on the daily mean wind recirculation and the mean and standard deviation between sites. The determination of the thresholds between scales is performed empirically following the approach of Levy et al. [2] and also through a automatic statistical approach computed taking into account the tails of the distributions (e.g. 95% and 99% percentile) of the different wind samples. A comparison is made with two objective approaches: 1) daily synoptic classification for the same period over the region [4] and 2) a 3-D backward trajectory approach [5,6] for specific episodes. Furthermore, the outcomes are expected to support the Portuguese authorities on the implementation of strategies for a sustainable management of environmental risks. [1] Demuzere, M., Trigo, R.M., Vila-Guerau de Arellano, van Lipzig, N.P.M., 2009. The impact of weather and atmospheric circulation on O3 and PM10 levels at a rural mid-latitude site. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 2695-2714. [2] Levy, I., Dayan, U., Mahrer, Y., 2009. Differing atmospheric scales of motion and their impact on air pollutants. Int. J. Climatol. [3] Pearce, J., Beringer, J., Nicholls, N., Hyndman, R.J., Uotila, P., Tapper, N.J., 2011. Investigating the influence of synoptic-scale meteorology on air quality using self-organizing maps and generalized additive modeling. Atmospheric Environment, 45, 1, 128 - 136, doi 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.09.032. [4 Trigo, R.M., DaCamara, C.C., 2000. Circulation Weather Types and their impact on the precipitation regime in Portugal. Int. J. Climat., 20, 1559-1581. [5] Carvalho, A., Monteiro, A., Ribeiro, I., Tchepel, O., Miranda, A.I., Borrego, C., Saavedra, S., Souto, J.A., Casares, J.J., 2010. High ozone levels in the Northeast of Portugal: analysis and characterization. Atmospheric Environment, 44, 1020 - 1031. [6] Saavedra, S., Rodríguez, A., Taboada, J.J., Souto, J.A., Casares, J.J., 2012. Synoptic patterns and air mass transport during ozone episodes in northwestern Iberia. Sci Total Environ., 441, 97-110. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.09.014.

Coastal Wind and Turbulence Observations during the Morning and Evening Transitions over Tropical Terrain

DOE PAGES

Jensen, Derek D.; Price, Timothy A.; Nadeau, Daniel F.; ...

2017-12-15

Data collected during a multiyear, wind-resource assessment over a multi-land-use coastal environment in Belize are used to study the development and decay of wind and turbulence through the morning and evening transitions. Observations were made on three tall masts, forming an inland transect of approximately 5 km. The wind distribution is found to be bimodal and governed by synoptic scales, with onshore and offshore flow regimes. The behavior between the coastal and inland sites is found to be very similar when the flow is directed offshore; for onshore flow, stark differences occur. The mean wind speed at the coastal sitemore » is approximately 20% greater than the most inland site and is nearly constant throughout the diurnal cycle. Furthermore, for both flow regimes, the influence of the land–sea breeze circulation is inconsequential relative to the large-scale synoptic forcing. Composite time series are used to study the evolution of sensible heat flux and turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) throughout the morning and evening transitions. The TKE budget reveals that at the coastal site mechanical production of TKE is much more important than buoyant production. This allows for the unexpected case in which TKE increases through the ET despite the decrease of buoyant TKE production. Multiresolution flux decomposition is used to further study this phenomenon as well as the evolution of the sensible heat flux at differing time scales. We present an idealized schematic to illustrate the timing and structure of the morning and evening transitions for an inland site and a coastal site that are subjected to similar synoptic forcing.« less

Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars’ Southern Extratropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

2017-10-01

Between late fall and early spring, Mars’ middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Coastal Wind and Turbulence Observations during the Morning and Evening Transitions over Tropical Terrain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jensen, Derek D.; Price, Timothy A.; Nadeau, Daniel F.

Data collected during a multiyear, wind-resource assessment over a multi-land-use coastal environment in Belize are used to study the development and decay of wind and turbulence through the morning and evening transitions. Observations were made on three tall masts, forming an inland transect of approximately 5 km. The wind distribution is found to be bimodal and governed by synoptic scales, with onshore and offshore flow regimes. The behavior between the coastal and inland sites is found to be very similar when the flow is directed offshore; for onshore flow, stark differences occur. The mean wind speed at the coastal sitemore » is approximately 20% greater than the most inland site and is nearly constant throughout the diurnal cycle. Furthermore, for both flow regimes, the influence of the land–sea breeze circulation is inconsequential relative to the large-scale synoptic forcing. Composite time series are used to study the evolution of sensible heat flux and turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) throughout the morning and evening transitions. The TKE budget reveals that at the coastal site mechanical production of TKE is much more important than buoyant production. This allows for the unexpected case in which TKE increases through the ET despite the decrease of buoyant TKE production. Multiresolution flux decomposition is used to further study this phenomenon as well as the evolution of the sensible heat flux at differing time scales. We present an idealized schematic to illustrate the timing and structure of the morning and evening transitions for an inland site and a coastal site that are subjected to similar synoptic forcing.« less

Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars Southern Extratropics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

2017-01-01

Between late fall and early spring, Mars' middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Monitoring the evolving land use patterns using remote sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goehring, D. R.

1971-01-01

The urbanization of Walnut Valley from 1953-71 prompted land use change from intensive von Thunen market-oriented patterns to extensive, disinvested, production-factor-minimized patterns. Shortrun, interim land use planning, has allowed agriculture to persist but only in the form of barley farming and grazing. Aerial photography used synoptically recorded six periods of land use change that bracketed dates before and after the freeway was announced and built. Interpretations of these changes help recognize potential conversions to urban uses which allow guidelines to be established that deal with rural-urban transition problems before they arise.

Tree ring-based chronology of hydro-geomorphic processes as a fundament for identification of hydro-meteorological triggers in the Hrubý Jeseník Mountains (Central Europe).

PubMed

Tichavský, Radek; Šilhán, Karel; Tolasz, Radim

2017-02-01

Hydro-geomorphic processes have significantly influenced the recent development of valley floors, river banks and depositional forms in mountain environments, have caused considerable damage to manmade developments and have disrupted forest management. Trees growing along streams are affected by the transported debris mass and provide valuable records of debris flow/flood histories in their tree-ring series. Dendrogeomorphic approaches are currently the most accurate methods for creating a chronology of the debris flow/flood events in forested catchments without any field-monitoring or a stream-gauging station. Comprehensive studies focusing on the detailed chronology of hydro-geomorphic events and analysis of meteorological triggers and weather circulation patterns are still lacking for the studied area. We provide a spatio-temporal reconstruction of hydro-geomorphic events in four catchments of the Hrubý Jeseník Mountains, Czech Republic, with an analysis of their triggering factors using meteorological data from four nearby rain gauges. Increment cores from 794 coniferous trees (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) allowed the identification of 40 hydro-geomorphic events during the period of 1889-2013. Most of the events can be explained by extreme daily rainfalls (≥50mm) occurring in at least one rain gauge. However, in several cases, there was no record of extreme precipitation at rain gauges during the debris flow/flood event year, suggesting extremely localised rainstorms at the mountain summits. We concluded that the localisation, intensity and duration of rainstorms; antecedent moisture conditions; and amount of available sediments all influenced the initiation, spatial distribution and characteristics of hydro-geomorphic events. The most frequent synoptic situations responsible for the extreme rainfalls (1946-2015) were related to the meridional atmospheric circulation pattern. Our results enhance current knowledge of the occurrences and triggers of debris flows/floods in the Central European mountains in transition between temperate oceanic and continental climatic conditions and may prompt further research of these phenomena in the Eastern Sudetes in general. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Use of Print Materials in the Internet Age: A Comparative Study of Academic Library Circulation Patterns

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haley, Daniel Joseph

2010-01-01

The circulation records from 1997/98 to 2007/08 for UCLA and from 2000/01 to 2007/08 for Pasadena City College (PCC) were analyzed to examine patterns in the use of print materials during a period of increasingly available online digital information resources. The analysis included examinations of longitudinal circulation patterns broken down by…

Comparisons between observations and numerical simulations of Japan (East) Sea flow and mass fields in 1999 through 2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mooers, Christopher N. K.; Bang, Inkweon; Sandoval, Francisco J.

2005-06-01

The Princeton Ocean Model (POM), as implemented for the Japan (East) Sea (JES) with mesoscale-admitting resolution is driven by seasonal throughflow and synoptic atmospheric forcing for 1999 through 2001. Temperature and salinity profiles from shipborne and PALACE float CTDs, and horizontal velocities at 800 m from PALACE float trajectories, plus horizontal velocities at 15 m from WOCE surface drifters for 1988 through 2001, are used to assess the performance of the numerical simulations for a base case. General agreement exists in the circulation at 15 and 800 m and the horizontal and vertical structure of the upper ocean temperature and salinity fields. The mean observed flow at 15 m defines the two branches of the Tsushima Warm Current and hints at the existence of a large cyclonic gyre over the Japan Basin, which the simulations also produce. The mean observed flow at 800 m defines a large cyclonic recirculation gyre over the Japan Basin that validates the simulated flow pattern. Variances of the observed and simulated flows at 15 and 800 m have similar patterns. The main discrepancies are associated with the strength of the seasonal thermocline and halocline and the location of the Subpolar Front. When smoother topography and smaller lateral friction are used in other cases, the thermocline and halocline strengthen, agreeing better with the observed values, and when 80% of total outflow transport is forced to exit through Soya Strait, the Subpolar Front extends along the coast to the north of Tsugaru Strait, which is an observed feature absent in the base case.

Spatio-temporal dynamics and synoptic characteristics of wet and drought extremes in Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utkuzova, Dilyara; Khan, Valentina

2015-04-01

Synoptical-statistical analysis has been conducted using SPI index calculated for 478 stations with records from 1966 through 2013. Different parameters of SPI frequency distribution and long-term tendencies were calculated as well as spatial characteristics indicating drought and wetness propagation. Results of analysis demonstrate that during last years there is a tendency of increasing of the intensity of draught and wetness extremes over Russia. There are fewer droughts in the northern regions. The drought propagation for the European territory of Russia is decreasing in June and August, and increasing in July. The situation is opposite for the wetness tendencies. For the Asian territory of Russia, the drought propagation is significantly increasing in July along with decreasing wetness trend. Synoptic conditions favorable for the formation of wet and drought extremes were identified by comparing synoptic charts with the spatial patterns of SPI. For synoptic analysis, episodes of extremely wet (6 episodes for the APR and 7 episodes for the EPR) and drought (6 episodes for the APR and 6 for the EPR) events were classified using A. Katz' typology of weather regimes. For European part of Russia, extreme DROUGHT events are linked to the weather type named "MIXED", for Asian part of Russia - the type "CENTRAL". For European part of Russia, extreme WET events associated with "CENTRAL" type. There is a displacement of the planetary frontal zone into southward direction approximately for 5-25 degrees relatively to normal climatological position during WET extreme events linked to «EASTERN» classification type. Intercomparison of SPI calculated on the base of NOAA NCEP CPC CAMS for the same period and with the resolution 0,5 degree, month precipitation data, Era-Interim Daily fields archive for the period 1979-2014 with the resolution 0,5 degree reanalysis and observational precipitation data was done. The results of comparative analysis has been discussed.

Synoptic patterns leading to hailstorm in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salahi, Bromand; Nohegar, Ahmad; Behrouzi, Mahmoud; Aalijahan, Mehdi

2018-03-01

The purpose of this study was to extract the synoptic patterns of 500 mb geopotential height and the sea level pressure leading to form hail in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, Iran. To this end, at first, we explored hail occurrence in different areas of the province under investigation. Then, using sea level pressure and 500 mb geopotential height data, the patterns of hail occurrence were investigated through hierarchical clustering and Ward's method. The level of 500 mb patterns resulting in hail formation in the area include: (1) settlement of a cut-off low pressure blocking in Turkey and Iran's position in downstream of trough and injection of humidity coming from the Red Sea; (2) settlement of low ridge in northern Europe and Iran lying in downstream of the trough and injection of humidity of the Mediterranean Sea; (3) settlement of a cut-off low pressure in east of Europe and Iran lying in downstream of the trough; and (4) settlement of a deep trough in the Mediterranean Sea, formation of an omega-shaped blocking in Northern Europe and Iran lying in downstream of the trough. At sea level, the following patterns have caused hail formation in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province: (1) settlement of low pressure in Iran and Russia accompanying high pressure in Taklimakan Desert and east of Europe; (2) settlement of low pressure in Iran and high pressure in Egypt, northern Europe, and Taklimakan Desert; and (3) settlement of low pressure in Iran, Saudi Arabia and south of Italy and high pressure in Egypt and Siberia.

Vortex circulation and polarity patterns in closely packed cap arrays

DOE PAGES

Streubel, Robert; Kronast, Florian; Reiche, Christopher F.; ...

2016-01-25

For this work, we studied curvature-driven modifications to the magnetostatic coupling of vortex circulation and polarity in soft-magnetic closely packed cap arrays. A phase diagram for the magnetic remanent/transition states at room temperature as a function of diameter and thickness was assembled. For specimens with vortex remanent state (40 nm-thick Permalloy on 330 nm spherical nanoparticles), both vortex circulation and polarity were visualized. Intercap coupling upon vortex nucleation leads to the formation of vortex circulation patterns in closely packed arrays. The remanent circulation pattern can be tailored choosing the direction of the applied magnetic field with respect to the symmetrymore » axis of the hexagonal array. An even and random distribution of vortex polarity indicates the absence of any circulation-polarity coupling.« less

Differences of atmospheric boundary layer characteristics between pre-monsoon and monsoon period over the Erhai Lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Lujun; Liu, Huizhi; Du, Qun; Wang, Lei; Yang, Liu; Sun, Jihua

2018-01-01

The differences in planetary boundary layer characteristics, in particular atmospheric boundary layer height (ABLH), humidity, and local circulations in pre-monsoon and monsoon period over the Erhai Lake, were simulated by the lake-atmosphere coupled model WRF v3.7.1. No lake simulations were also conducted to investigate lake effects over complex topography. During pre-monsoon period, local circulation was fully developed under weak synoptic system. The ABLH ran up to 2300 m or so. During monsoon period, temperature difference between land and lake became smaller, resulting in weaker local circulations. The height of circulation reduced by 500 m, and ABLH ran up to 1100 m during the day. Enhanced soil moisture and low surface temperature due to monsoon rainfalls in July could be the main reason for the slightly lower ABLH over the Erhai Lake area. Specific humidity of the boundary layer increased 8.8 g kg-1 or so during monsoon period. The Erhai Lake enlarged thermal contrast between valley and mountain slope in the Dali Basin. The lake reduced air temperature by 2 3 °C during daytime and increased air temperature by nearly 2 °C in the evening. Due to its small roughness length and large thermal capacity, the Erhai Lake enlarged lake-land temperature difference and local wind speed. A cyclonic circulation was maintained by the combination of mountain breeze and land breeze in the south of the lake. The lake decreased air temperature, increased specific humidity, and reduced ABLH during daytime, whereas the opposite effect is presented at night.

Process-based evaluation of the ÖKS15 Austrian climate scenarios: First results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendlik, Thomas; Truhetz, Heimo; Jury, Martin; Maraun, Douglas

2017-04-01

The climate scenarios for Austria from the ÖKS15 project consists of 13 downscaled and bias-corrected RCMs from the EURO-CORDEX project. This dataset is meant for the broad public and is now available at the central national archive for climate data (CCCA Data Center). Because of this huge public outreach it is absolutely necessary to objectively discuss the limitations of this dataset and to publish these limitations, which should also be understood by a non-scientific audience. Even though systematical climatological biases have been accounted for by the Scaled-Distribution-Mapping (SDM) bias-correction method, it is not guaranteed that the model biases have been removed for the right reasons. If climate scenarios do not get the patterns of synoptic variability right, biases will still prevail in certain weather patterns. Ultimately this will have consequences for the projected climate change signals. In this study we derive typical weather types in the Alpine Region based on patterns from mean sea level pressure from ERA-INTERIM data and check the occurrence of these synoptic phenomena in EURO-CORDEX data and their corresponding driving GCMs. Based on these weather patterns we analyze the remaining biases of the downscaled and bias-corrected scenarios. We argue that such a process-based evaluation is not only necessary from a scientific point of view, but can also help the broader public to understand the limitations of downscaled climate scenarios, as model errors can be interpreted in terms of everyday observable weather.

Wintertime East Asian Jet Stream and its Association with the Asian-Pacific-American Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Song; Lau, K.-M.; Kim, K.-M.

1999-01-01

The wintertime upper-tropospheric westerly jet stream over subtropical East Asia and western Pacific, often referred to as East Asian Jet (EAJ), is an important atmospheric circulation system in the Asian-Pacific-American (APA) region. It is characterized by variabilities on a wide range of time scales and exerts a strong impact on the weather and climate of the region. On the synoptic scale, the jet is closely linked to many phenomena such as cyclogenesis, frontogenesis, blocking, storm track activity, and the development of other atmospheric disturbances. On the seasonal time scale, the variation of the EAJ determines many characteristics of the seasonal transition of the atmospheric circulation over Asia. The variabilities of the jet on these time scales have been relatively well documented (e.g., Yeh et al. 1959, Palmen and Newton 1969; Zeng 1979). It has also been understood that the inter-annual variability of the EAJ is associated with many climate signals in the APA region. These signals include the persistent anomalies of the East Asian winter monsoon and the changes in diabatic heating and in the Hadley circulation (Bjerknes 1966; Chang and Lau 1980; Huang and Gambo 1982; Kang and Held 1986; Tao and Chen 1987; Lau et al. 1988; Yang and Webster 1990; Ding 1992; Webster and Yang 1992; Dong et al. 1999). However, many questions remain for the year-to-year variabilities of the jet and their relation to the APA climate. For example, what is the relationship between the EAJ and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Will the jet and ENSO play different roles in modulating the APA climate? How is the jet linked to North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern? In this study, we address several issues related to the wintertime EAJ with a focus on interannual time scales. We will examine the association between the jet core and ENSO, which has always been overshadowed by the relationship between ENSO and the upper-tropospheric winds over northern extratropics of the central Pacific. We will investigate the linkage of the jet to variabilities of the Asian winter monsoon, tropical convection, and upper tropospheric wave patterns. We will also explore the relationship between the jet core and extratropical S ST with an aim at providing helpful information for improving our understanding of the connection of the EAJ to surface boundary conditions. The analysis is expected to provide information that is helpful for improving regional climate predictions.

Marine Air Penetration: The Effect of Synoptic-scale Change on Regional Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Ullrich, P. A.

2016-12-01

Marine air penetration (MAP) around the California San Francisco Bay Delta region has a pronounced impact on local temperature and air quality, and is highly correlated with inland wind penetration and hence wind power generation. Observational MAP criteria are defined based on the 900hPa across-shore wind speed greater than or equal to 3m/s at the Oakland radiosonde station, and a surface temperature difference greater than or equal to 7 degrees Celsius between two California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) stations at Fresno, CA and Lodi, CA. This choice reflects marine cooling of Lodi, and was found to be highly correlated with inland specific humidity and breeze front activity. The observational MAP criteria were tuned based on small biases from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) to selected MAP days from CFSR, to identify synoptic-scale indicators associated with MAP events. A multivariate logistic regression model was constructed based on the selected five synoptic indicators from CFSR and demonstrated good model performance. Two synoptic-scale patterns were identified and analyzed out of the 32 categories from the regression model, suggesting a strong influence from the off-shore trough and the inland thermal ridge on MAP events. Future projection of MAP events included the 21st century Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and Variable resolution in the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM). Both showed no statistically significant trend associated with MAP events through the end of this century under both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5.

Repeat synoptic sampling reveals drivers of change in carbon and nutrient chemistry of Arctic catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarnetske, J. P.; Abbott, B. W.; Bowden, W. B.; Iannucci, F.; Griffin, N.; Parker, S.; Pinay, G.; Aanderud, Z.

2017-12-01

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nutrients, and other solute concentrations are increasing in rivers across the Arctic. Two hypotheses have been proposed to explain these trends: 1. distributed, top-down permafrost degradation, and 2. discrete, point-source delivery of DOC and nutrients from permafrost collapse features (thermokarst). While long-term monitoring at a single station cannot discriminate between these mechanisms, synoptic sampling of multiple points in the stream network could reveal the spatial structure of solute sources. In this context, we sampled carbon and nutrient chemistry three times over two years in 119 subcatchments of three distinct Arctic catchments (North Slope, Alaska). Subcatchments ranged from 0.1 to 80 km2, and included three distinct types of Arctic landscapes - mountainous, tundra, and glacial-lake catchments. We quantified the stability of spatial patterns in synoptic water chemistry and analyzed high-frequency time series from the catchment outlets across the thaw season to identify source areas for DOC, nutrients, and major ions. We found that variance in solute concentrations between subcatchments collapsed at spatial scales between 1 to 20 km2, indicating a continuum of diffuse- and point-source dynamics, depending on solute and catchment characteristics (e.g. reactivity, topography, vegetation, surficial geology). Spatially-distributed mass balance revealed conservative transport of DOC and nitrogen, and indicates there may be strong in-stream retention of phosphorus, providing a network-scale confirmation of previous reach-scale studies in these Arctic catchments. Overall, we present new approaches to analyzing synoptic data for change detection and quantification of ecohydrological mechanisms in ecosystems in the Arctic and beyond.

Instability and its relation to precipitation over the Eastern Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iturrioz, I.; Hernández, E.; Ribera, P.; Queralt, S.

2007-04-01

Synoptic situations producing rainfall at four rawinsonde observatories at eastern Spain are classified as stratiform or convective depending on dynamic and thermodynamic instability indices. Two daily radiosonde and daily-accumulated precipitation data from four observatories in Eastern Spain are used: Madrid-Barajas (MB), Murcia (MU), Palma de Mallorca (PA) and Zaragoza (ZA). We calculated two thermodynamic instability indices from radiosonde data: CAPE and LI. Likewise, from ERA40 reanalysis data we have calculated the Q vector divergence over the Iberian Peninsula and Balearic Islands, as a parameter describing dynamical instability. Synoptic situations producing rainfall were classified as convective or stratiform, satisfying a criterion based on the values of dynamic and thermodynamic indices at each observatory. It is observed that the number of days with stratiform precipitation related to the total number of precipitation days follows a consistent annual pattern.

Characterizing synoptic and cloud variability in the northern atlantic using self-organizing maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fish, Carly

Low-level clouds have a significant influence on the Earth's radiation budget and it is thus imperative to understand their behavior within the marine boundary layer (MBL). The cloud properties in the Northeast Atlantic region are highly variable in space and time and are a research focus for many atmospheric scientists. Characterizing the synoptic patterns in the region through the implementation of self-organizing maps (SOMs) enables a climatological grasp of cloud and atmospheric fields. ERA -- Interim and MODIS provide the platform to explore the variability in the Northeast Atlantic for over 30 years of data. Station data comes from CAP -- MBL on Graciosa Island in the Azores, which lies in a strong gradient of cloud and other atmospheric fields, offer an opportunity to incorporate an observational aspect for the years of 2009 and 2010.

Meteorological conditions for the triggering of landslides in Asturias (NW Spain). A preliminary analysis of synoptic patterns.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valenzuela, Pablo; Iglesias, Miguel; José Domínguez-Cuesta, María; Mora García, Manuel Antonio

2017-04-01

Asturias is one of the most landslide prone areas in the NW of Spain, where those phenomena cause every year large economic loses and sometimes personal injuries or fatalities. Most of landslides take place during intense rainfall events, which point out precipitation as the main triggering factor. Regional climate is characterized by average annual precipitation and temperature of 960 mm and 13.3°C respectively. Rainfall distribution throughout the year allows the definition of a humid period between October and May, characterized by the succession of frontal systems, and a considerable dry period between June and September, when heavy short storm episodes are usual. BAPA landslide database (http://geol.uniovi.es/BAPA) gathers more than 500 landslide records located with high temporal reliability for eight hydrological years between October 2008 and September 2016. Eight periods with a high concentration of landslides and significant precipitation records have been selected for the study within this time span. Meteorological conditions which took place during each period have been characterized by using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the EEUU (NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis 1) through the free software Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS). Seven parameters have been used to characterize each synoptic situation: (i) 500 hPa temperature, (ii) 500 hPa geopotential height, (iii) 850 hPa temperature, (iv) 850 hPa geopotential height, (v) 925hPa wind, (vi) specific humidity, and (vii) sea level pressure. The final goal is to establish a conceptual model of the most frequent synoptic meteorological patterns which generate rainfall-triggered landslide events in Asturias during the humid and dry periods.

A High Resolution Study of Black Sea Circulation and Hypothetical Oil Spills

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietrich, D. E.; Bowman, M. J.; Korotenko, K. A.

2008-12-01

A 1/24 deg resolution adaptation of the DieCAST ocean model simulates a realistically intense Rim Current and ubiquitous mesoscale coastal anticyclonic eddies that result from anticyclonic vorticity generation by laterally differential bottom drag forces that are amplified near Black Sea coastal headlands. Climatological and synoptic surface forcings are compared. The effects of vertical momentum transfer by known (by Synop region fishermen, as reported by Ballard National Geographic article) big amplitude internal waves are parameterized by big vertical viscosity. Sensitivity to vertical viscosity is shown. Results of simulated hypothetical oil spills are shown. A simple method to nowcast/forecast the Black Sea currents is described and early results are shown.

40 CFR 230.23 - Current patterns and water circulation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... or fill material can modify current patterns and water circulation by obstructing flow, changing the direction or velocity of water flow, changing the direction or velocity of water flow and circulation, or otherwise changing the dimensions of a water body. As a result, adverse changes can occur in: Location...

40 CFR 230.23 - Current patterns and water circulation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... or fill material can modify current patterns and water circulation by obstructing flow, changing the direction or velocity of water flow, changing the direction or velocity of water flow and circulation, or otherwise changing the dimensions of a water body. As a result, adverse changes can occur in: Location...

40 CFR 230.23 - Current patterns and water circulation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... or fill material can modify current patterns and water circulation by obstructing flow, changing the direction or velocity of water flow, changing the direction or velocity of water flow and circulation, or otherwise changing the dimensions of a water body. As a result, adverse changes can occur in: Location...

Submesoscale dispersion in the vicinity of the Deepwater Horizon spill.

PubMed

Poje, Andrew C; Ozgökmen, Tamay M; Lipphardt, Bruce L; Haus, Brian K; Ryan, Edward H; Haza, Angelique C; Jacobs, Gregg A; Reniers, A J H M; Olascoaga, Maria Josefina; Novelli, Guillaume; Griffa, Annalisa; Beron-Vera, Francisco J; Chen, Shuyi S; Coelho, Emanuel; Hogan, Patrick J; Kirwan, Albert D; Huntley, Helga S; Mariano, Arthur J

2014-09-02

Reliable forecasts for the dispersion of oceanic contamination are important for coastal ecosystems, society, and the economy as evidenced by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 and the Fukushima nuclear plant incident in the Pacific Ocean in 2011. Accurate prediction of pollutant pathways and concentrations at the ocean surface requires understanding ocean dynamics over a broad range of spatial scales. Fundamental questions concerning the structure of the velocity field at the submesoscales (100 m to tens of kilometers, hours to days) remain unresolved due to a lack of synoptic measurements at these scales. Using high-frequency position data provided by the near-simultaneous release of hundreds of accurately tracked surface drifters, we study the structure of submesoscale surface velocity fluctuations in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Observed two-point statistics confirm the accuracy of classic turbulence scaling laws at 200-m to 50-km scales and clearly indicate that dispersion at the submesoscales is local, driven predominantly by energetic submesoscale fluctuations. The results demonstrate the feasibility and utility of deploying large clusters of drifting instruments to provide synoptic observations of spatial variability of the ocean surface velocity field. Our findings allow quantification of the submesoscale-driven dispersion missing in current operational circulation models and satellite altimeter-derived velocity fields.

Submesoscale dispersion in the vicinity of the Deepwater Horizon spill

PubMed Central

Poje, Andrew C.; Özgökmen, Tamay M.; Lipphardt, Bruce L.; Haus, Brian K.; Ryan, Edward H.; Haza, Angelique C.; Jacobs, Gregg A.; Reniers, A. J. H. M.; Olascoaga, Maria Josefina; Novelli, Guillaume; Griffa, Annalisa; Beron-Vera, Francisco J.; Chen, Shuyi S.; Coelho, Emanuel; Hogan, Patrick J.; Kirwan, Albert D.; Huntley, Helga S.; Mariano, Arthur J.

2014-01-01

Reliable forecasts for the dispersion of oceanic contamination are important for coastal ecosystems, society, and the economy as evidenced by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 and the Fukushima nuclear plant incident in the Pacific Ocean in 2011. Accurate prediction of pollutant pathways and concentrations at the ocean surface requires understanding ocean dynamics over a broad range of spatial scales. Fundamental questions concerning the structure of the velocity field at the submesoscales (100 m to tens of kilometers, hours to days) remain unresolved due to a lack of synoptic measurements at these scales. Using high-frequency position data provided by the near-simultaneous release of hundreds of accurately tracked surface drifters, we study the structure of submesoscale surface velocity fluctuations in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Observed two-point statistics confirm the accuracy of classic turbulence scaling laws at 200-m to 50-km scales and clearly indicate that dispersion at the submesoscales is local, driven predominantly by energetic submesoscale fluctuations. The results demonstrate the feasibility and utility of deploying large clusters of drifting instruments to provide synoptic observations of spatial variability of the ocean surface velocity field. Our findings allow quantification of the submesoscale-driven dispersion missing in current operational circulation models and satellite altimeter-derived velocity fields. PMID:25136097

Synoptic and climatological aspects of extra-tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G. C.

2010-09-01

Mid-latitude cyclones are highly complex dynamical features embedded in the general atmospheric circulation of the extra-tropics. Although the basic mechanisms leading to the formation of cyclones are commonly understood, the specific conditions and physical reasons triggering extreme, partly explosive development, are still under investigation. This includes also the identification of processes which might modulate the frequency and intensity of cyclone systems on time scales from days to centennials. This overview presentation will thus focus on three main topics: Firstly, the dynamic-synoptic structures of cyclones, the possibility to objectively identify cyclones and wind storms, and actual statistical properties of cyclone occurrence under recent climate conditions are addressed. In a second part, aspects of the interannual variability and its causing mechanisms are related to the seasonal predictability of extreme cyclones producing severe storm events. Extending the time frame will mean to deduce information on decadal or even centennial time periods. Thus, actual work to decadal as well as climatological variability and changes will be presented. In the last part of the talk focus will be laid on potential socio-economical impacts of changed cyclone occurrence. By means of global and regional climate modeling, future damages in terms of insured losses will be investigated and measures of uncertainty estimated from a multi-model ensemble analysis will be presented.

Use of thermal infrared remote sensing data for fisheries, environmental monitoring, oil and gas exploration, and ship routing.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roffer, M. A.; Gawlikowski, G.; Muller-Karger, F.; Schaudt, K.; Upton, M.; Wall, C.; Westhaver, D.

2006-12-01

Thermal infrared (TIR) and ocean color remote sensing data (1.1 - 4.0 km) are being used as the primary data source in decision making systems for fisheries management, commercial and recreational fishing advisory services, fisheries research, environmental monitoring, oil and gas operations, and ship routing. Experience over the last 30 years suggests that while ocean color and other remote sensing data (e.g. altimetry) are important data sources, TIR presently yields the most useful data for studying ocean surface circulation synoptically on a daily basis. This is due primarily to the greater temporal resolution, but also due to one's better understanding of the dynamics of sea surface temperature compared with variations in ocean color and the spatial limitations of altimeter data. Information derived from commercial operations and research is being used to improve the operational efficiency of fishing vessels (e.g. reduce search time and increase catch rate) and to improve our understanding of the variations in catch distribution and rate needed to properly manage fisheries. This information is also being used by the oil and gas industry to minimize transit time and thus, save costs (e.g., tug charter, insurance), to increase production and revenue up to 500K dollars a day. The data are also be used to reduce the risk of equipment loss, loss of time and revenue to sudden and unexpected currents such as eddies. Sequential image analysis integrating TIR and ocean color provided near-real time, synoptic visualization of the rapid and wide dispersal of coastal waters from the northern Gulf of Mexico following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in September 2005. The satellite data and analysis techniques have also been used to monitor the effects and movement of other potential environmentally damaging substances, such as dispersing nutrient enriched waste water offshore. A review of our experience in several commercial applications and research efforts will reinforce the importance and benefits of TIR compared to other remote sensing data. Examples of sequential image analysis and side by side image comparisons will demonstrate the utility of TIR for oceanographic applications. This will emphasize that TIR research and development be continued, as well as, implemented on all new research sensor packages. Sea surface temperature, derived from TIR, has the longest history and reliability for synoptic observations of ocean circulation. Thus, any new sensor packages should be fitted with TIR at the same temporal and spatial resolution to facilitate an objective comparison of the utility of the new sensors compared with the TIR.

The structure and large-scale organization of extreme cold waves over the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Zuowei; Black, Robert X.; Deng, Yi

2017-12-01

Extreme cold waves (ECWs) occurring over the conterminous United States (US) are studied through a systematic identification and documentation of their local synoptic structures, associated large-scale meteorological patterns (LMPs), and forcing mechanisms external to the US. Focusing on the boreal cool season (November-March) for 1950‒2005, a hierarchical cluster analysis identifies three ECW patterns, respectively characterized by cold surface air temperature anomalies over the upper midwest (UM), northwestern (NW), and southeastern (SE) US. Locally, ECWs are synoptically organized by anomalous high pressure and northerly flow. At larger scales, the UM LMP features a zonal dipole in the mid-tropospheric height field over North America, while the NW and SE LMPs each include a zonal wave train extending from the North Pacific across North America into the North Atlantic. The Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) in general simulates the three ECW patterns quite well and successfully reproduces the observed enhancements in the frequency of their associated LMPs. La Niña and the cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) favor the occurrence of NW ECWs, while the warm PDO phase, low Arctic sea ice extent and high Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE) are associated with elevated SE-ECW frequency. Additionally, high Eurasian SCE is linked to increases in the occurrence likelihood of UM ECWs.

Effects of Explicit Urban-Canopy Representation on Local Circulations Above a Tropical Mega-City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flores Rojas, José L.; Pereira Filho, Augusto J.; Karam, Hugo A.; Vemado, Felipe; Masson, Valéry

2018-01-01

The Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) is coupled with the tropical town energy budget (tTEB) scheme to analyze the effects of the urban canopy circulation over the metropolitan area of São Paulo and its interactions with the sea breeze and mountain-valley circulation in the eastern state of São Paulo, Brazil. Two experiments are carried out for the typical sea-breeze event occurring on 22 August 2014 under weak synoptic forcing and clear-sky conditions: (a) a control run with the default semi-desert surface parametrization and; (b) a tTEB run for the urban canopy of São Paulo. A realistic land-use database over the south-eastern domain of Brazil is used in the downscaling simulation to a horizontal grid resolution of 3 km. Our results indicate that ARPS effectively simulates features of the nighttime and early morning land-breeze circulation, which is affected by the surrounding hills and the nocturnal heat island of São Paulo. By early afternoon, the south-eastern sea-breeze circulation moves inland perpendicular to the upslope of the Serra do Mar scarp, which generates a line of moisture convergence and updrafts further inland. Later, the convergence line reaches São Paulo and interacts with the circulation arising from the urban heat island (UHI), which increases the moisture convergence and strength of updrafts. The surface energy balance indicates that the UHI is caused by large sensible heat storage within the urban canopy during the day, which is later released in the afternoon and at night. The simulations are verified with available radiosonde and surface weather station data, land-surface-temperature estimates from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer, as well as the National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis databases. The three-dimensional geometry of the urban canyons within the tTEB scheme consistently improves the thermodynamically-induced circulation over São Paulo.

Synoptic weather typing applied to air pollution mortality among the elderly in 10 Canadian cities.

PubMed

Vanos, Jennifer K; Cakmak, Sabit; Bristow, Corben; Brion, Vladislav; Tremblay, Neil; Martin, Sara L; Sheridan, Scott S

2013-10-01

Synoptic circulation patterns (large-scale weather systems) affect ambient levels of air pollution, as well as the relationship between air pollution and human health. To investigate the air pollution-mortality relationship within weather types and seasons, and to determine which combination of atmospheric conditions may pose increased health threats in the elderly age categories. The relative risk of mortality (RR) due to air pollution was examined using Poisson generalized linear models (GLMs) within specific weather types. Analysis was completed by weather type and age group (all ages, ≤64, 65-74, 75-84, ≥85 years) in ten Canadian cities from 1981 to 1999. There was significant modification of RR by weather type and age. When examining the entire population, weather type was shown to have the greatest modifying effect on the risk of dying due to ozone (O3). This effect was highest on average for the dry tropical (DT) weather type, with the all-age RR of mortality at a population weighted mean (PWM) found to be 1.055 (95% CI 1.026-1.085). All-weather type risk estimates increased with age due to exposure to carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulphur dioxide (SO2). On average, RR increased by 2.6, 3.8 and 1.5% for the respective pollutants between the ≤64 and ≥85 age categories. Conversely, mean ozone estimates remained relatively consistent with age. Elevated levels of air pollution were found to be detrimental to the health of elderly individuals for all weather types. However, the entire population was negatively effected by air pollution on the hot dry (DT) and hot humid (MT) days. We identified a significant modification of RR for mortality due to air pollution by age, which is enhanced under specific weather types. Efforts should be targeted at minimizing pollutant exposure to the elderly and/or all age groups with respect to weather type in question. Crown Copyright © 2013 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Wind-driven circulation patterns in a shallow estuarine lake: St Lucia, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoen, Julia H.; Stretch, Derek D.; Tirok, Katrin

2014-06-01

The spatiotemporal structure of wind-driven circulation patterns and associated water exchanges or residence times can drive important bio-hydrodynamic interactions in shallow lakes and estuaries. The St Lucia estuarine lake in South Africa is an example of such a system. It is a UNESCO World Heritage Site and RAMSAR wetland of international importance but no detailed research on its circulation patterns has previously been undertaken. In this study, a hydrodynamic model was used to investigate the structure of these circulations to provide insights into their role in transport and water exchange processes. A strong diurnal temporal pattern of wind speeds, together with directional switching between two dominant directions, drives intermittent water exchanges and mixing between the lake basins. “High speed flows in shallow nearshore areas with slower upwind counter-flows in deeper areas, linked by circulatory gyres, are key features of the circulation”. These patterns are strongly influenced by the complex geometry of St Lucia and constrictions in the system. Water exchange time scales are non-homogeneous with some basin extremities having relatively long residence times. The influence of the circulation patterns on biological processes is discussed.

Multi-scale Predictability with a New Coupled Non-hydrostatic Global Model over the Arctic Annual Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

tropopause polar vortices, which are prevalent circulation features over the Arctic that play a major role in the evolution of surface pressure anomalies...pressure and tropospheric circulation anomalies and will allow us to answer specific questions regarding its ability to reproduce the appropriate AO... circulation patterns (Fig. 1c). While the mean patterns are favorable regarding the ability of MPAS to encapsulate the overall patterns of these two

Are meteorological conditions favoring hail precipitation change in Southern Europe? Analysis of the period 1948-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, J. L.; Merino, A.; Melcón, P.; García-Ortega, E.; Fernández-González, S.; Berthet, C.; Dessens, J.

2017-12-01

In the context of a warming climate, one of the variables currently under investigation is related to the detection of possible changes in hail precipitation. In this work, we analyze hail frequencies in one of the most affected areas by this phenomenon in Europe, southern France. Here, an extensive hail detection network has been in operation since 1988. In general, the detection of hailfall is very uncertain. To overcome the constraints of scarcity and poor standardization of hail detection and monitoring systems, some relationships between hailstorm occurrence and synoptic, mesoscale or thermodynamic atmospheric characteristics have been proposed in different areas. Therefore, we analyzed meteorological fields at synoptic scale that are related to the formation of hailstorms in the study area, i.e., geopotential height at 500 hPa, sea level pressure, and lapse-rate between 850 and 500 hPa. These fields describe the state of the atmosphere at low and mid levels, and facilitate the evaluation of thermal and dynamic instability. Using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen estimator, we examined trends in the three fields during the period 1948-2015 and their spatial patterns, revealing an evolution toward synoptic environments that favor hail precipitation in the Mediterranean region.

1935-2004 Water Vapor Trends at the Summit of Mount Washington, NH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seidel, T. M.; Grant, A. N.; Pszenny, A. A.

2005-12-01

As part of an ongoing effort to digitize and analyze the unique historical climate record from the summit of Mount Washington, water vapor mixing ratios calculated from synoptic (six-hourly) sling psychrometer and related data will be presented. The Mount Washington Observatory, located at 44°16'N, 71°18'W, 1914 m ASL, has been recording meteorological conditions since 1932. A continuous record of hourly and synoptic data exists from 1935 to the present. Previous work with hourly temperature data has shown an increase in annual temperature of 0.3°C over this 69-year interval, with larger increases during spring and winter, and a decrease in diurnal temperature range (A. Grant et al., J. Climate, in press). Preliminary examination of the synoptic psychrometric data suggests a decrease in annual dew point of approximately 0.4°C, with larger decreases in fall and winter than during the other seasons. Decreasing dew points are expected under two conditions: drier air or constant water vapor with increasing temperature. Other dew point climatologies of the continental United States for the second half of the 20th century have shown mixed results, with increased dew points evident at some stations, decreased dew points at others, and no clear regional patterns.

Cross-timescale Interference and Rainfall Extreme Events in South Eastern South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz, Angel G.

The physical mechanisms and predictability associated with extreme daily rainfall in South East South America (SESA) are investigated for the December-February season. Through a k-mean analysis, a robust set of daily circulation regimes is identified and then it is used to link the frequency of rainfall extreme events with large-scale potential predictors at subseasonal-to-seasonal scales. This basic set of daily circulation regimes is related to the continental and oceanic phases of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and wave train patterns superimposed on the Southern Hemisphere Polar Jet. Some of these recurrent synoptic circulation types are conducive to extreme rainfall events in the region through synoptic control of different meso-scale physical features and, at the same time, are influenced by climate phenomena that could be used as sources of potential predictability. Extremely high rainfall (as measured by the 95th- and 99th-percentiles) is preferentially associated with two of these weather types, which are characterized by moisture advection intrusions from lower latitudes and the Pacific; another three weather types, characterized by above-normal moisture advection toward lower latitudes or the Andes, are preferentially associated with dry days (days with no rain). The analysis permits the identification of several subseasonal-to-seasonal scale potential predictors that modulate the occurrence of circulation regimes conducive to extreme rainfall events in SESA. It is conjectured that a cross-timescale interference between the different climate drivers improves the predictive skill of extreme precipitation in the region. The potential and real predictive skill of the frequency of extreme rainfall is then evaluated, finding evidence indicating that mechanisms of climate variability at one timescale contribute to the predictability at another scale, i.e., taking into account the interference of different potential sources of predictability at different timescales increases the predictive skill. This fact is in agreement with the Cross-timescale Interference Conjecture proposed in the first part of the thesis. At seasonal scale, a combination of those weather types tends to outperform all the other potential predictors explored, i.e., sea surface temperature patterns, phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and combinations of both. Spatially averaged Kendall’s τ improvements of 43% for the potential predictability and 23% for realtime predictions are attained with respect to standard models considering sea-surface temperature fields alone. A new subseasonal-to-seasonal predictive methodology for extreme rainfall events is proposed, based on probability forecasts of seasonal sequences of these weather types. The cross-validated realtime skill of the new probabilistic approach, as measured by the Hit Score and the Heidke Skill Score, is on the order of twice that associated with climatological values. The approach is designed to offer useful subseasonal-to-seasonal climate information to decision-makers interested not only in how many extreme events will happen in the season, but also in how, when and where those events will probably occur. In order to gain further understanding about how the cross-timescale interference occurs, an externally-forced Lorenz model is used to explore the impact of different kind of forcings, at inter-annual and decadal scales, in the establishment of constructive interactions associated with the simulated “extreme events”. Using a wavelet analysis, it is shown that this simple model is capable of reproducing the same kind of cross-timescale structures observed in the wavelet power spectrum of the Nino3.4 index only when it is externally forced by both inter-annual and decadal signals: the annual cycle and a decadal forcing associated with the natural solar variability. The nature of this interaction is non-linear, and it impacts both mean and extreme values in the time series. No predictive power was found when using metrics like standard deviation and auto-correlation. Nonetheless, it was proposed that an early warning signal for occurrence of extreme rainfall in SESA may be possible via a continuous monitoring of relative phases between the cross-timescale leading components.

Contemporary Model Fidelity over the Maritime Continent: Examination of the Diurnal Cycle, Synoptic, Intraseasonal and Seasonal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baranowski, D.; Waliser, D. E.; Jiang, X.

2016-12-01

One of the key challenges in subseasonal weather forecasting is the fidelity in representing the propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) across the Maritime Continent (MC). In reality both propagating and non-propagating MJO events are observed, but in numerical forecast the latter group largely dominates. For this study, comprehensive model performances are evaluated using metrics that utilize the mean precipitation pattern and the amplitude and phase of the diurnal cycle, with a particular focus on the linkage between a model's local MC variability and its fidelity in representing propagation of the MJO and equatorial Kelvin waves across the MC. Subseasonal to seasonal variability of mean precipitation and its diurnal cycle in 20 year long climate simulations from over 20 general circulation models (GCMs) is examined to benchmark model performance. Our results show that many models struggle to represent the precipitation pattern over complex Maritime Continent terrain. Many models show negative biases of mean precipitation and amplitude of its diurnal cycle; these biases are often larger over land than over ocean. Furthermore, only a handful of models realistically represent the spatial variability of the phase of the diurnal cycle of precipitation. Models tend to correctly simulate the timing of the diurnal maximum of precipitation over ocean during local solar time morning, but fail to acknowledge influence of the land, with the timing of the maximum of precipitation there occurring, unrealistically, at the same time as over ocean. The day-to-day and seasonal variability of the mean precipitation follows observed patterns, but is often unrealistic for the diurnal cycle amplitude. The intraseasonal variability of the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of precipitation is mainly driven by model's ability (or lack of) to produce eastward propagating MJO-like signal. Our results show that many models tend to decrease apparent air-sea contrast in the mean precipitation and diurnal cycle of precipitation patterns over the Maritime Continent. As a result, the complexity of those patterns is heavily smoothed, to such an extent in some models that the Maritime Continent features and imprint is almost unrecognizable relative to the eastern Indian Ocean or Western Pacific.

Spectral nudging to eliminate the effects of domain position and geometry in regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Robock, Alan

2004-07-01

It is well known that regional climate simulations are sensitive to the size and position of the domain chosen for calculations. Here we study the physical mechanisms of this sensitivity. We conducted simulations with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) for June 2000 over North America at 50 km horizontal resolution using a 7500 km × 5400 km grid and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as boundary conditions. The position of the domain was displaced in several directions, always maintaining the U.S. in the interior, out of the buffer zone along the lateral boundaries. Circulation biases developed a large scale structure, organized by the Rocky Mountains, resulting from a systematic shifting of the synoptic wave trains that crossed the domain. The distortion of the large-scale circulation was produced by interaction of the modeled flow with the lateral boundaries of the nested domain and varied when the position of the grid was altered. This changed the large-scale environment among the different simulations and translated into diverse conditions for the development of the mesoscale processes that produce most of precipitation for the Great Plains in the summer season. As a consequence, precipitation results varied, sometimes greatly, among the experiments with the different grid positions. To eliminate the dependence of results on the position of the domain, we used spectral nudging of waves longer than 2500 km above the boundary layer. Moisture was not nudged at any level. This constrained the synoptic scales to follow reanalysis while allowing the model to develop the small-scale dynamics responsible for the rainfall. Nudging of the large scales successfully eliminated the variation of precipitation results when the grid was moved. We suggest that this technique is necessary for all downscaling studies with regional models with domain sizes of a few thousand kilometers and larger embedded in global models.

Spatio-temporal atmospheric circulation variability around the Antarctic Peninsula based on hemispheric circulation modes and weather types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wachter, Paul; Beck, Christoph; Philipp, Andreas; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Höppner, Kathrin

2017-04-01

Large parts of the Polar Regions are affected by a warming trend associated with substantial changes in the cryosphere. In Antarctica this positive trend pattern is most dominant in the western part of the continent and on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). An important driving mechanism of temperature variability and trends in this region is the atmospheric circulation. Changes in atmospheric circulation modes and frequencies of circulation types have major impacts on temperature characteristics at a certain station or region. We present results of a statistical downscaling study focused on AP temperature variability showing both results of large-scale atmospheric circulation modes and regional weather type classifications derived from monthly and daily gridded reanalysis data sets. In order to investigate spatial trends and variabilities of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), we analyze spatio-temporally resolved SAM-pattern maps from 1979 to 2015. First results show dominant multi-annual to decadal pattern variabilities which can be directly linked to temperature variabilities at the Antarctic Peninsula. A sub-continental to regional view on the influence of atmospheric circulation on AP temperature variability is given by the analysis of weather type classifications (WTC). With this analysis we identify significant changes in the frequency of occurrence of highly temperature-relevant circulation patterns. The investigated characteristics of weather type frequencies can also be related to the identified changes of the SAM.

The synoptic setting and possible energy sources for mesoscale wave disturbances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Uccellini, Louis W.; Koch, Steven E.

1987-01-01

Published data on 13 cases of mesoscale wave disturbances and their environment were examined to isolate common features for these cases and to determine possible energy sources for the waves. These events are characterized by either a singular wave of depression or wave packets with periods of 1-4 h, horizontal wavelengths of 50-500 km, and surface-pressure perturbation amplitudes of 0.2-7.0 mb. These wave events are shown to be associated with a distinct synoptic pattern (including the existence of a strong inversion in the lower troposphere and the propagation of a jet streak toward a ridge axis in the upper troposphere) while displaying little correlation with the presence of convective storm cells. The observed development of the waves is consistent with the hypothesis that the energy source needed to initiate and sustain the wave disturbances may be related to a geostrophic adjustment process associated with upper-tropospheric jet streaks.

Vacillations induced by interference of stationary and traveling planetary waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salby, Murry L.; Garcia, Rolando R.

1987-01-01

The interference pattern produced when a traveling planetary wave propagates over a stationary forced wave is explored, examining the interference signature in a variety of diagnostics. The wave field is first restricted to a diatomic spectrum consisting of two components: a single stationary wave and a single monochromatic traveling wave. A simple barotropic normal mode propagating over a simple stationary plane wave is considered, and closed form solutions are obtained. The wave fields are then restricted spatially, providing more realistic structures without sacrificing the advantages of an analytical solution. Both stationary and traveling wave fields are calculated numerically with the linearized Primitive Equations in a realistic basic state. The mean flow reaction to the fluctuating eddy forcing which results from interference is derived. Synoptic geopotential behavior corresponding to the combined wave and mean flow fields is presented, and the synoptic signature in potential vorticity on isentropic surfaces is examined.

Synoptic Sampling to Determine Distributed Groundwater-Surface Water Nitrate Loading and Removal Potential Along a Lowland River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pai, Henry; Villamizar, Sandra R.; Harmon, Thomas C.

2017-11-01

Delineating pollutant reactive transport pathways that connect local land use patterns to surface water is an important goal. This work illustrates high-resolution river mapping of salinity or specific conductance (SC) and nitrate (NO3-) as a potential part of achieving this goal. We observed longitudinal river SC and nitrate distributions using high-resolution synoptic in situ sensing along the lower Merced River (38 river km) in Central California (USA) from 2010 to 2012. We calibrated a distributed groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) discharge model for a conservative solute using 13 synoptic SC sampling events at flows ranging from 1.3 to 31.6 m3 s-1. Nitrogen loads ranged from 0.3 to 1.6 kg N d-1 and were greater following an extended high flow period during a wet winter. Applying the distributed GW-SW discharge estimates to a simplistic reactive nitrate transport model, the model reproduced observed river nitrate distribution well (RRMSE = 5-21%), with dimensionless watershed-averaged nitrate removal (kt) ranging from 0 to 0.43. Estimates were uncertain due to GW nitrate data variability, but the resulting range was consistent with prior removal estimates. At the segment scale, estimated GW-SW nitrate loading ranged from 0 to 17 g NO3- s-1 km-1. Local loading peaked near the middle of the study reach, a location that coincides with a shallow clay lens and with confined animal feed operations in close proximity to the river. Overall, the results demonstrate the potential for high-resolution synoptic monitoring to support GW-SW modeling efforts aimed at understanding and managing nonpoint source pollution.

Synoptic regimes associated with the eastern Mediterranean wet season cyclone tracks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almazroui, Mansour; Awad, Adel M.

2016-11-01

The main synoptic patterns associated with the wet season (October-May) eastern Mediterranean cyclones have been analyzed and described using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets for the period 1958-2013. The cyclone tracks detected in the eastern Mediterranean are classified into two types based on their positions: the local tracks and the long tracks. The local tracks are either stationary or short tracks. The long tracks distinguished into eleven very closed and highly correlated clusters, which are presented into three regimes namely the northern, the southern and the eastern border Mediterranean regimes. Among the 940 (44.78% of a total of 2099) long tracks, the northern, southern, and eastern border regime contributes respectively about 53.62%, 41.81% and 5% of the long tracks. In addition, the distribution of the long tracks reveals that a larger proportion of the cyclones are generated at the northern coast during November and spring months, while few cyclones are developed over the eastern Mediterranean border in warm months (April and May). Further, their synoptic features show that the regimes are associated with the extension of Azores high, specifically for each regime, the cyclogenesis areas of its clusters are controlled by the intersection of low level (850 hPa) trough and the position of the upper level (250 hPa) maximum wind. Furthermore, the orientations of clusters are controlled by the extension of Siberian high and the shape of cyclonic trough at 850 hPa. In addition, the synoptic study shows that most of the southern cyclones generated externally by African and Red Sea troughs, while most of the northern and eastern border cyclones are generated internally.

Local and synoptic controls on rapid supraglacial lake drainage in West Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, Andrew; Banwell, Alison; Arnold, Neil; Willis, Ian

2016-04-01

Many supraglacial lakes within the ablation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) are known to drain rapidly (in <1 day) in the mid- to late melt season, delivering large meltwater pulses to the subglacial drainage system, thus affecting basal water pressures and ice-sheet dynamics. Although it is now generally recognised that rapid lake drainage is caused by hydrofracture, the precise controls on hydrofracture initiation remain poorly understood: they may be linked to a local critical water-volume threshold, or they may be associated with synoptic-scale factors, such as ice thickness, driving stresses, ice velocities and strain rates. A combination of the local water-volume threshold and one or more synoptic-scale factors may explain the overall patterns of rapid lake drainage, but this requires verification using targeted field- and remotely-based studies that cover large areas of the GrIS and span long timescales. Here, we investigate a range of potential controls on rapid supraglacial lake drainage in the land-terminating Paakitsoq region of the ice sheet, northeast of Jakobshavn Isbræ, for the 2014 melt season. We have analysed daily 250-m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery in order to calculate lake areas, depths and volumes, and have developed an automatic lake-tracking algorithm to determine the dates on which all rapid lake drainage events occur. For each rapidly draining lake, the water volumes immediately prior to drainage are compared with other local factors, notably lake-filling rate and ice thickness, and with a variety of synoptic-scale features, such as slope angles, driving stresses, surface velocities, surface strain rates and the incidence of nearby lake-drainage events. We present the outcomes of our statistical analysis to elicit the statistically significant controls on hydrofracture beneath supraglacial lakes.

Synoptic variability of extreme snowfall in the St. Elias Mountains, Yukon, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andin, Caroline; Zdanowicz, Christian; Copland, Luke

2015-04-01

Glaciers in the Wrangell and St. Elias Mountains (Alaska and Yukon) are presently experiencing some of the highest regional wastage rates worldwide. While the effect of regional temperatures on glacier melt rates in this region has been investigated, comparatively little is known about how synoptic climate variations, for example in the position and strength of the Aleutian Low, modulate snow accumulation on these glaciers. Such information is needed to accurately forecast future wastage rates, glacier-water resource availability, and contributions to sea-level rise. Starting in 2000, automated weather stations (AWS) were established in the central St-Elias Mountains (Yukon) at altitudes ranging from 1190 to 5400 m asl, to collect climatological data in support of glaciological research. These data are the longest continuous year-round observations of surface climate ever obtained from this vast glaciated region. Here we present an analysis of snowfall events in the icefields of the St-Elias Mountains based on a decade-long series of AWS observations of snow accumulation. Specifically, we investigated the synoptic patterns and air mass trajectories associated with the largest snowfall events (> 25 cm/12 hours) that occurred between 2002 and 2012. Nearly 80% of these events occurred during the cold season (October-March), and in 74 % of cases the precipitating air masses originated from the North Pacific south of 50°N. Zonal air mass advection over Alaska, or from the Bering Sea or the Arctic Ocean, was comparatively rare (20%). Somewhat counter-intuitively, dominant surface winds in the St. Elias Mountains during high snowfall events were predominantly easterly, probably due to boundary-layer frictional drag and topographic funneling effects. Composite maps of sea-level pressure and 700 mb winds reveal that intense snowfall events between 2002 and 2012 were associated with synoptic situations characterized by a split, eastwardly-shifted or longitudinally-stretched Aleutian Low (AL) having an easternmost node near the Kenai Peninsula, conditions that drove a strong southwesterly upper airstream across the Gulf of Alaska towards the coast. Situations with a single-node, westerly-shifted AL were comparatively rare. The spatial configuration of the synoptic AL pressure pattern appears to play a greater role in determining snowfall amount in the central St. Elias Mountains than do pressure anomalies within the AL. The estimated snowfall gradient from coastal Alaska to the central St. Elias Mountains during intense snowfall events averaged +2.0 ± 0.7 mm/km (SWE), while the continental-side gradient from the mountains towards the Yukon plateau averaged -3.3 ± 0.9 mm/km (SWE). The findings presented here can better constrain the climatic interpretation of long proxy records of snow accumulation variations developed from glacier cores drilled in the St. Elias Mountains or nearby regions.

Analysis of meteorology and emission in haze episode prevalence over mountain-bounded region for early warning.

PubMed

Kim Oanh, Nguyen Thi; Leelasakultum, Ketsiri

2011-05-01

This study investigated the main causes of haze episodes in the northwestern Thailand to provide early warning and prediction. In an absence of emission input data required for chemical transport modeling to predict the haze, the climatological approach in combination with statistical analysis was used. An automatic meteorological classification scheme was developed using regional meteorological station data of 8years (2001-2008) which classified the prevailing synoptic patterns over Northern Thailand into 4 patterns. Pattern 2, occurring with high frequency in March, was found to associate with the highest levels of 24h PM(10) in Chiangmai, the largest city in Northern Thailand. Typical features of this pattern were the dominance of thermal lows over India, Western China and Northern Thailand with hot, dry and stagnant air in Northern Thailand. March 2007, the month with the most severe haze episode in Chiangmai, was found to have a high frequency of occurrence of pattern 2 coupled with the highest emission intensities from biomass open burning. Backward trajectories showed that, on haze episode days, air masses passed over the region of dense biomass fire hotspots before arriving at Chiangmai. A stepwise regression model was developed to predict 24h PM(10) for days of meteorology pattern 2 using February-April data of 2007-2009 and tested with 2004-2010 data. The model performed satisfactorily for the model development dataset (R(2)=87%) and test dataset (R(2)=81%), which appeared to be superior over a simple persistence regression of 24h PM(10) (R(2)=76%). Our developed model had an accuracy over 90% for the categorical forecast of PM(10)>120μg/m(3). The episode warning procedure would identify synoptic pattern 2 and predict 24h PM(10) in Chiangmai 24h in advance. This approach would be applicable for air pollution episode management in other areas with complex terrain where similar conditions exist. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation: part II—dynamical equations of horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Shujuan; Cheng, Jianbo; Xu, Ming; Chou, Jifan

2018-04-01

The three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation (TPDGAC) partitions three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric circulation into horizontal, meridional and zonal components to study the 3D structures of global atmospheric circulation. This paper incorporates the three-pattern decomposition model (TPDM) into primitive equations of atmospheric dynamics and establishes a new set of dynamical equations of the horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations in which the operator properties are studied and energy conservation laws are preserved, as in the primitive equations. The physical significance of the newly established equations is demonstrated. Our findings reveal that the new equations are essentially the 3D vorticity equations of atmosphere and that the time evolution rules of the horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations can be described from the perspective of 3D vorticity evolution. The new set of dynamical equations includes decomposed expressions that can be used to explore the source terms of large-scale atmospheric circulation variations. A simplified model is presented to demonstrate the potential applications of the new equations for studying the dynamics of the Rossby, Hadley and Walker circulations. The model shows that the horizontal air temperature anomaly gradient (ATAG) induces changes in meridional and zonal circulations and promotes the baroclinic evolution of the horizontal circulation. The simplified model also indicates that the absolute vorticity of the horizontal circulation is not conserved, and its changes can be described by changes in the vertical vorticities of the meridional and zonal circulations. Moreover, the thermodynamic equation shows that the induced meridional and zonal circulations and advection transport by the horizontal circulation in turn cause a redistribution of the air temperature. The simplified model reveals the fundamental rules between the evolution of the air temperature and the horizontal, meridional and zonal components of global atmospheric circulation.

The application of automatic recognition techniques in the Apollo 9 SO-65 experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Macdonald, R. B.

1970-01-01

A synoptic feature analysis is reported on Apollo 9 remote earth surface photographs that uses the methods of statistical pattern recognition to classify density points and clusterings in digital conversion of optical data. A computer derived geological map of a geological test site indicates that geological features of the range are separable, but that specific rock types are not identifiable.

Causes and Model Skill of the Persistent Intense Rainfall and Flooding in Paraguay during the Austral Summer 2015-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doss-Gollin, J.; Munoz, A. G.; Pastén, M.

2017-12-01

During the austral summer 2015-16 severe flooding displaced over 150,000 people on the Paraguay River system in Paraguay, Argentina, and Southern Brazil. This flooding was out of phase with the typical seasonal cycle of the Paraguay River, and was driven by repeated intense rainfall events in the Lower Paraguay River basin. Using a weather typing approach within a diagnostic framework, we show that enhanced moisture inflow from the low-level jet and local convergence associated with baroclinic systems favored the development of mesoscale convective activity and enhanced precipitation. The observed circulation patterns were made more likely by the cross-timescale interactions of multiple climate mechanisms including the strong, mature El Niño event and an active Madden-Julien Oscillation in phases four and five. We also perform a comparison of the rainfall predictability using seasonal forecasts from the Latin American Observatory of Climate Events (OLE2) and sub-seasonal forecasts produced by the ECMWF. We find that the model output precipitation field exhibited limited skill at lead times beyond the synoptic timescale, but that a Model Output Statistics (MOS) approach, in which the leading principal components of the observed rainfall field are regressed on the leading principal components of model-simulated rainfall fields, substantially improves spatial representation of rainfall forecasts. Possible implications for flood preparedness are briefly discussed.

Classification and Feature Selection Algorithms for Modeling Ice Storm Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swaminathan, R.; Sridharan, M.; Hayhoe, K.; Dobbie, G.

2015-12-01

Ice storms account for billions of dollars of winter storm loss across the continental US and Canada. In the future, increasing concentration of human populations in areas vulnerable to ice storms such as the northeastern US will only exacerbate the impacts of these extreme events on infrastructure and society. Quantifying the potential impacts of global climate change on ice storm prevalence and frequency is challenging, as ice storm climatology is driven by complex and incompletely defined atmospheric processes, processes that are in turn influenced by a changing climate. This makes the underlying atmospheric and computational modeling of ice storm climatology a formidable task. We propose a novel computational framework that uses sophisticated stochastic classification and feature selection algorithms to model ice storm climatology and quantify storm occurrences from both reanalysis and global climate model outputs. The framework is based on an objective identification of ice storm events by key variables derived from vertical profiles of temperature, humidity and geopotential height. Historical ice storm records are used to identify days with synoptic-scale upper air and surface conditions associated with ice storms. Evaluation using NARR reanalysis and historical ice storm records corresponding to the northeastern US demonstrates that an objective computational model with standard performance measures, with a relatively high degree of accuracy, identify ice storm events based on upper-air circulation patterns and provide insights into the relationships between key climate variables associated with ice storms.

Simulation of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in a coarse-resolution aquaplanet GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajayamohan, R. S.; Khouider, Boualem; Majda, Andrew J.

2014-08-01

The skill of the global climate models (GCMs) to realistically simulate the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) is related to the sensitivity of their convective parameterization schemes. Here we show that by coupling a simple multicloud parameterization to a coarse-resolution aquaplanet GCM, realistic MISOs can be simulated. We conduct three different simulations with a fixed nonhomogeneous sea surface temperature mimicking the Indian Ocean/western Pacific warm pool (WP) centered at the three latitudes 5°N, 10°N, and 15°N, respectively, to replicate the seasonal migration of the Tropical Convergence Zone (TCZ). This results in the generation of mean circulation resembling the monsoonal flow pattern in boreal summer. Succession of eastward propagating Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) disturbances with phase speed, amplitude, and structure similar to summer MJOs are simulated when the WP is at 5°N. When the WP is located over 10°N, northward and eastward propagating MISOs are simulated. This case captures the meridional seesaw of convection between continental and oceanic TCZ observed during boreal summer over South Asia. Westward propagating Rossby wave-like disturbances are simulated when the WP is over 15°N congruous with the synoptic disturbances seen over the monsoon trough. The initiation of intraseasonal oscillations in the model can occur internally through organization of convective events above the WP associated with internal dynamics.

Development and implementation of a synoptic MRI report for preoperative staging of rectal cancer on a population-based level.

PubMed

Kennedy, Erin D; Milot, Laurent; Fruitman, Mark; Al-Sukhni, Eisar; Heine, Gabrielle; Schmocker, Selina; Brown, Gina; McLeod, Robin S

2014-06-01

Colorectal cancer physician champions across the province of Ontario, Canada, reported significant concern about appropriate selection of patients for preoperative chemoradiotherapy because of perceived variation in the completeness and consistency of MRI reports. The purpose of this work was to develop, pilot test, and implement a synoptic MRI report for preoperative staging of rectal cancer. This was an integrated knowledge translation project. This study was conducted in Ontario, Canada. Surgeons, radiologists, radiation oncologists, medical oncologists, and pathologists treating patients with rectal cancer were included in this study. A multifaceted knowledge translation strategy was used to develop, pilot test, and implement a synoptic MRI report. This strategy included physician champions, audit and feedback, assessment of barriers, and tailoring to the local context. A radiology webinar was conducted to pilot test the synoptic MRI report. Seventy-three (66%) of 111 Ontario radiologists participated in the radiology webinar and evaluated the synoptic MRI report. A total of 78% and 90% radiologists expressed that the synoptic MRI report was easy to use and included all of the appropriate items; 82% noted that the synoptic MRI report improved the overall quality of their information, and 83% indicated they would consider using this report in their clinical practice. An MRI report audit after implementation of the synoptic MRI report showed a 39% improvement in the completeness of MRI reports and a 37% uptake of the synoptic MRI report format across the province. Radiologists evaluating the synoptic MRI report and participating in the radiology webinar may not be representative of gastroenterologic radiologists in other geographic jurisdictions. The evaluation of completeness and uptake of the synoptic MRI reports is limited because of unmeasured differences that may occur before and after the MRI. A synoptic MRI report for preoperative staging of rectal cancer was successfully developed and pilot tested in the province of Ontario, Canada.

Simulations of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal with a High-Resolution Model: Sensitivity to Large-Scale Boundary Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, Anil; Done, James; Dudhia, Jimy; Niyogi, Dev

2011-01-01

The predictability of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal was explored in terms of track and intensity using the Advanced Research Hurricane Weather Research Forecast (AHW) model. This constitutes the first application of the AHW over an area that lies outside the region of the North Atlantic for which this model was developed and tested. Several experiments were conducted to understand the possible contributing factors that affected Sidr s intensity and track simulation by varying the initial start time and domain size. Results show that Sidr s track was strongly controlled by the synoptic flow at the 500-hPa level, seen especially due to the strong mid-latitude westerly over north-central India. A 96-h forecast produced westerly winds over north-central India at the 500-hPa level that were notably weaker; this likely caused the modeled cyclone track to drift from the observed actual track. Reducing the model domain size reduced model error in the synoptic-scale winds at 500 hPa and produced an improved cyclone track. Specifically, the cyclone track appeared to be sensitive to the upstream synoptic flow, and was, therefore, sensitive to the location of the western boundary of the domain. However, cyclone intensity remained largely unaffected by this synoptic wind error at the 500-hPa level. Comparison of the high resolution, moving nested domain with a single coarser resolution domain showed little difference in tracks, but resulted in significantly different intensities. Experiments on the domain size with regard to the total precipitation simulated by the model showed that precipitation patterns and 10-m surface winds were also different. This was mainly due to the mid-latitude westerly flow across the west side of the model domain. The analysis also suggested that the total precipitation pattern and track was unchanged when the domain was extended toward the east, north, and south. Furthermore, this highlights our conclusion that Sidr was influenced from the west side of the domain. The displacement error was significantly reduced after the domain size from the western model boundary was decreased. Study results demonstrate the capability and need of a high-resolution mesoscale modeling framework for simulating the complex interactions that contribute to the formation of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal region

Detection of Northern Hemisphere transient eddies at Gale Crater Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haberle, Robert M.; Juárez, Manuel de la Torre; Kahre, Melinda A.; Kass, David M.; Barnes, Jeffrey R.; Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Harri, Ari-Matti; Kahanpää, Henrik

2018-06-01

The Rover Environmental Monitoring Station (REMS) on the Curiosity Rover is operating in the Southern Hemisphere of Mars and is detecting synoptic period oscillations in the pressure data that we attribute to Northern Hemisphere transient eddies. We base this interpretation on the similarity in the periods of the eddies and their seasonal variations with those observed in northern midlatitudes by Viking Lander 2 (VL-2) 18 Mars years earlier. Further support for this interpretation comes from global circulation modeling which shows similar behavior in the transient eddies at the grid points closest to Curiosity and VL-2. These observations provide the first in situ evidence that the frontal systems often associated with "Flushing Dust Storms" do cross the equator and extend into the Southern Hemisphere.

Influence of the West Pacific subtropical high on surface ozone daily variability in summertime over eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Zijian; Wang, Yuxuan

2017-12-01

The West Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), as one of the most important components of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), is the key synoptic-scale circulation pattern influencing summertime precipitation and atmospheric conditions in China. Here we investigate the impacts of the WPSH on surface ozone daily variability over eastern China, using observations from recently established network of ozone monitors and meteorology reanalysis data during summer (June, July, August; JJA) 2014-2016 with a focus on 2014. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of daily ozone variations reveals that the dominating eigenvector (EOF1), which contributes a quarter (25.2%) to the total variances, is a marked north-south contrast. This pattern is temporally well correlated (r = -0.66, p < 0.01) with daily anomalies of a normalized WPSH intensity index (WPSH-I). Spatially, the WPSH-I and ozone correlation is positive in North China (NC) but negative in South China (SC), which well correlates with the ozone EOF1 pattern showing the same north-south contrast (r = -0.86, p < 0.01). These associations suggest the dominant component of surface ozone daily variability in eastern China is linked with the variability of the WPSH intensity in that a stronger WPSH leads to a decrease of surface ozone over SC but an increase over NC and vice versa. This is because a stronger WPSH enhances southwesterly transport of moisture into SC, creating such conditions not conducive for ozone formation as higher RH, more cloudiness and precipitation, less UV radiation, and lower temperature. Meanwhile, as most of the rainfall due to the enhanced southwesterly transport of moisture occurs in SC, water vapor is largely depleted in the air masses transported towards NC, creating dry and sunny conditions over NC under a strong WPSH, thereby promoting ozone formation.

Vortex circulation patterns in planar microdisk arrays

DOE PAGES

Velten, Sven; Streubel, Robert; Farhan, Alan; ...

2017-06-26

We report a magnetic X-ray microscopy study of the pattern formation of circulation in arrays of magnetic vortices ordered in a hexagonal and a honeycomb lattice. In the honeycomb lattice, we observe at remanence an ordered phase of alternating circulations, whereas in the hexagonal lattice, small regions of alternating lines form. A variation in the edge-to-edge distance shows that the size of those regions scales with the magnetostatic interaction. Micromagnetic simulations reveal that the patterns result from the formation of flux closure states during the nucleation process.

Remote sensing of vegetation pattern and condition to monitor changes in Everglades biogeochemistry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, John W.

2011-01-01

Ground-based studies of biogeochemistry and vegetation patterning yield process understanding, but the amount of information gained by ground-based studies can be greatly enhanced by efficient, synoptic, and temporally resolute monitoring afforded by remote sensing. The variety of presently available Everglades vegetation maps reflects both the wide range of application requirements and the need to balance cost and capability. More effort needs to be applied to documenting and understanding vegetation distribution and condition as indicators of biogeochemistry and contamination. Ground-based and remote sensing studies should be modified to maximize their synergy and utility for adaptive management.

The effects of implementing synoptic pathology reporting in cancer diagnosis: a systematic review.

PubMed

Sluijter, Caro E; van Lonkhuijzen, Luc R C W; van Slooten, Henk-Jan; Nagtegaal, Iris D; Overbeek, Lucy I H

2016-06-01

Pathology reporting is evolving from a traditional narrative report to a more structured synoptic report. Narrative reporting can cause misinterpretation due to lack of information and structure. In this systematic review, we evaluate the impact of synoptic reporting on completeness of pathology reports and quality of pathology evaluation for solid tumours. Pubmed, Embase and Cochrane databases were systematically searched to identify studies describing the effect of synoptic reporting implementation on completeness of reporting and quality of pathology evaluation of solid malignant tumours. Thirty-three studies met the inclusion criteria. All studies, except one, reported an increased overall completeness of pathology reports after introduction of synoptic reporting (SR). Most frequently studied cancers were breast (n = 9) and colorectal cancer (n = 16). For breast cancer, narrative reports adequately described 'tumour type' and 'nodal status'. Synoptic reporting resulted in improved description of 'resection margins', 'DCIS size', 'location' and 'presence of calcifications'. For colorectal cancer, narrative reports adequately reported 'tumour type', 'invasion depth', 'lymph node counts' and 'nodal status'. Synoptic reporting resulted in increased reporting of 'circumferential margin', 'resection margin', 'perineural invasion' and 'lymphovascular invasion'. In addition, increased numbers of reported lymph nodes were found in synoptic reports. Narrative reports of other cancer types described the traditional parameters adequately, whereas for 'resection margins' and '(lympho)vascular/perineural invasion', implementation of synoptic reporting was necessary. Synoptic reporting results in improved reporting of clinical relevant data. Demonstration of clinical impact of this improved method of pathology reporting is required for successful introduction and implementation in daily pathology practice.

Variability of three-dimensional sea breeze structure in southern France: observations and evaluation of empirical scaling laws

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drobinski, P.; Bastin, S.; Dabas, A.; Delville, P.; Reitebuch, O.

2006-08-01

Sea-breeze dynamics in southern France is investigated using an airborne Doppler lidar, a meteorological surface station network and radiosoundings, in the framework of the ESCOMPTE experiment conducted during summer 2001 in order to evaluate the role of thermal circulations on pollutant transport and ventilation. The airborne Doppler lidar WIND contributed to three-dimensional (3-D) mapping of the sea breeze circulation in an unprecedented way. The data allow access to the onshore and offshore sea breeze extents (xsb), and to the sea breeze depth (zsb) and intensity (usb). They also show that the return flow of the sea breeze circulation is very seldom seen in this area due to (i) the presence of a systematic non zero background wind, and (ii) the 3-D structure of the sea breeze caused by the complex coastline shape and topography. A thorough analysis is conducted on the impact of the two main valleys (Rhône and Durance valleys) affecting the sea breeze circulation in the area.

Finally, this dataset also allows an evaluation of the existing scaling laws used to derive the sea breeze intensity, depth and horizontal extent. The main results of this study are that (i) latitude, cumulative heating and surface friction are key parameters of the sea breeze dynamics; (ii) in presence of strong synoptic flow, all scaling laws fail in predicting the sea breeze characteristics (the sea breeze depth, however being the most accurately predicted); and (iii) the ratio zsb/usb is approximately constant in the sea breeze flow.

Co-occurrence of Artemisia and Ambrosia pollen seasons against the background of the synoptic situations in Poland.

PubMed

Stępalska, Danuta; Myszkowska, Dorota; Katarzyna, Leśkiewicz; Katarzyna, Piotrowicz; Katarzyna, Borycka; Kazimiera, Chłopek; Łukasz, Grewling; Idalia, Kasprzyk; Barbara, Majkowska-Wojciechowska; Małgorzata, Malkiewicz; Małgorzata, Nowak; Krystyna, Piotrowska-Weryszko; Małgorzata, Puc; Elżbieta, Weryszko-Chmielewska

2017-04-01

The Asteraceae family is one of the largest families, comprising 67 genera and 264 species in Poland. However, only a few genera, including Artemisia and Ambrosia are potential allergenic sources. The aim of the study was to estimate how often and to what degree Artemisia and Ambrosia pollen seasons co-occur intensifying human health risk, and how synoptic situations influence frequency of days with high pollen concentrations of both taxa. Artemisia and Ambrosia pollen data were collected, using the volumetric method, at 8 sites in Poland. Daily concentrations of Artemisia pollen equal to 30 grains or more and Ambrosia pollen equal to 10 grains or more were accepted as high values. Concentrations of more than 10 pollen grains were defined as high in the case of Ambrosia because its allergenicity is considered higher. High concentrations were confronted with synoptic situations. Analysis was performed on the basis of two calendars on circulation types of atmosphere in Poland (Niedźwiedź, 2006, 2015). Co-occurrence of Artemisia and Ambrosia pollen seasons is being found most often, when Ambrosia pollen season starts in the first half of August. If it happens in the last 10 days of August high pollen concentrations of Artemisia and Ambrosia do not occur at the same days. At three sites (Sosnowiec, Rzeszów, Lublin) high Ambrosia pollen concentrations during the Artemisia pollen season appear more often than in other sites under question. The high Artemisia pollen concentrations occur, when continental or polar maritime old air masses inflow into Poland. The impact of air masses on high Ambrosia pollen concentrations depends on site localizations. It is likely, that in the south-eastern part of Poland high Ambrosia pollen concentrations result from the pollen transport from east-south-south-westerly directions and the local sources. Co-occurrence of both taxa pollen seasons depends on the air masses inflow and appears more often in a south-eastern part of Poland.

Co-occurrence of Artemisia and Ambrosia pollen seasons against the background of the synoptic situations in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stępalska, Danuta; Myszkowska, Dorota; Katarzyna, Leśkiewicz; Katarzyna, Piotrowicz; Katarzyna, Borycka; Kazimiera, Chłopek; Łukasz, Grewling; Idalia, Kasprzyk; Barbara, Majkowska-Wojciechowska; Małgorzata, Malkiewicz; Małgorzata, Nowak; Krystyna, Piotrowska-Weryszko; Małgorzata, Puc; Elżbieta, Weryszko-Chmielewska

2017-04-01

The Asteraceae family is one of the largest families, comprising 67 genera and 264 species in Poland. However, only a few genera, including Artemisia and Ambrosia are potential allergenic sources. The aim of the study was to estimate how often and to what degree Artemisia and Ambrosia pollen seasons co-occur intensifying human health risk, and how synoptic situations influence frequency of days with high pollen concentrations of both taxa. Artemisia and Ambrosia pollen data were collected, using the volumetric method, at 8 sites in Poland. Daily concentrations of Artemisia pollen equal to 30 grains or more and Ambrosia pollen equal to 10 grains or more were accepted as high values. Concentrations of more than 10 pollen grains were defined as high in the case of Ambrosia because its allergenicity is considered higher. High concentrations were confronted with synoptic situations. Analysis was performed on the basis of two calendars on circulation types of atmosphere in Poland (Niedźwiedź, 2006, 2015). Co-occurrence of Artemisia and Ambrosia pollen seasons is being found most often, when Ambrosia pollen season starts in the first half of August. If it happens in the last 10 days of August high pollen concentrations of Artemisia and Ambrosia do not occur at the same days. At three sites (Sosnowiec, Rzeszów, Lublin) high Ambrosia pollen concentrations during the Artemisia pollen season appear more often than in other sites under question. The high Artemisia pollen concentrations occur, when continental or polar maritime old air masses inflow into Poland. The impact of air masses on high Ambrosia pollen concentrations depends on site localizations. It is likely, that in the south-eastern part of Poland high Ambrosia pollen concentrations result from the pollen transport from east-south-south-westerly directions and the local sources. Co-occurrence of both taxa pollen seasons depends on the air masses inflow and appears more often in a south-eastern part of Poland.

Wave modulation of the extratropical tropopause inversion layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilch Kedzierski, Robin; Matthes, Katja; Bumke, Karl

2017-03-01

This study aims to quantify how much of the observed strength and variability in the zonal-mean extratropical tropopause inversion layer (TIL) comes from the modulation of the temperature field and its gradients around the tropopause by planetary- and synoptic-scale waves. By analyzing high-resolution observations, it also puts other TIL enhancing mechanisms into context.Using gridded Global Positioning System radio occultation (GPS-RO) temperature profiles from the COSMIC mission (2007-2013), we are able to extract the extratropical wave signal by a simplified wavenumber-frequency domain filtering method and quantify the resulting TIL enhancement. By subtracting the extratropical wave signal, we show how much of the TIL is associated with other processes, at mid- and high latitudes, for both hemispheres and all seasons.The transient and reversible modulation by planetary- and synoptic-scale waves is almost entirely responsible for the TIL in midlatitudes. This means that wave-mean flow interactions, inertia-gravity waves and the residual circulation are of minor importance for the strength and variability in the midlatitude TIL.At polar regions, the extratropical wave modulation is dominant for the TIL strength as well, but there is also a clear fingerprint from sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) and final warmings in both hemispheres. Therefore, polar vortex breakups are partially responsible for the observed polar TIL strength in winter (if SSWs occur) and spring. Also, part of the polar summer TIL strength cannot be explained by extratropical wave modulation.We suggest that our wave modulation mechanism integrates several TIL enhancing mechanisms proposed in previous literature while robustly disclosing the overall outcome of the different processes involved. By analyzing observations only, our study identifies which mechanisms dominate the extratropical TIL strength and their relative contribution. It remains to be determined, however, which roles the different planetary- and synoptic-scale wave types play within the total extratropical wave modulation of the TIL, as well as what causes the observed amplification of extratropical waves near the tropopause.

Large-Scale Weather Disturbances in Mars’ Southern Extratropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

2015-11-01

Between late autumn and early spring, Mars’ middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal gradients between the tropics and poles. Observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). These extratropical weather disturbances are key components of the global circulation. Such wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively lifted and radiatively active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars’ full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating key large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars’ transient barotropic/baroclinic eddies are highly influenced by the great impact basins of this hemisphere (e.g., Argyre and Hellas). The occurrence of a southern storm zone in late winter and early spring appears to be anchored to the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Modelling stable water isotopes during "high-precipitation" events at Dome C, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlosser, Elisabeth; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Risi, Camille; Stenni, Barbara; Valt, Mauro; Powers, Jordan G.; Manning, Kevin W.; Duda, Michael G.; Cagnati, Anselmo

2014-05-01

For a correct paleoclimatologic interpretation of stable water isotopes from ice cores both pre- and post-depositional processes and their role for isotope fractionation have to be better understood. Our study focusses on "pre-depositional processes", namely the atmospheric processes that determine moisture transport and precipitation formation. At the deep ice core drilling site "Dome C", East Antarctica, fresh snow samples have been taken since 2006. These samples have been analysed crystallographically, which enables us to clearly distinguish between blowing snow, diamond dust, and "synoptic precipitation". Also the stable oxygen/hydrogen isotope ratios of the snow samples were measured, including measurements of 17-O. This is the first and only multi-year fresh-snow data series from an Antarctic deep drilling site. The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) employs Polar WRF for aviation weather forecasts in Antarctica. The data are archived and can be used for scientific purposes. The mesoscale atmospheric model was adapted especially for polar regions. The horizontal resolution for the domain that covers the Antarctic continent is 10 km. It was shown that precipitation at Dome C is temporally dominated by diamond dust. However, comparatively large amounts of precipitation are observed during several "high-precipitation" events per year, caused by synoptic activity in the circumpolar trough and related advection of relatively warm and moist air from lower latitudes to the interior of Antarctica. AMPS archive data are used to investigate the synoptic situations that lead to "high-precipitation" events at Dome C; in particular, possible moisture sources are determined using back-trajectories. With this meteorological information, the isotope ratios are calculated using two different isotope models, the Mixed Cloud Isotope Model, a simple Rayleigh-type model, and the LMDZ-iso (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamic Zoom), a General Circulation Model (GCM) with implementation of stable isotopes. The results are compared to the measured stable isotope ratios of the fresh snow samples.

Ice core and climate reanalysis analogs to predict Antarctic and Southern Hemisphere climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayewski, P. A.; Carleton, A. M.; Birkel, S. D.; Dixon, D.; Kurbatov, A. V.; Korotkikh, E.; McConnell, J.; Curran, M.; Cole-Dai, J.; Jiang, S.; Plummer, C.; Vance, T.; Maasch, K. A.; Sneed, S. B.; Handley, M.

2017-01-01

A primary goal of the SCAR (Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research) initiated AntClim21 (Antarctic Climate in the 21st Century) Scientific Research Programme is to develop analogs for understanding past, present and future climates for the Antarctic and Southern Hemisphere. In this contribution to AntClim21 we provide a framework for achieving this goal that includes: a description of basic climate parameters; comparison of existing climate reanalyses; and ice core sodium records as proxies for the frequencies of marine air mass intrusion spanning the past ∼2000 years. The resulting analog examples include: natural variability, a continuation of the current trend in Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate characterized by some regions of warming and some cooling at the surface of the Southern Ocean, Antarctic ozone healing, a generally warming climate and separate increases in the meridional and zonal winds. We emphasize changes in atmospheric circulation because the atmosphere rapidly transports heat, moisture, momentum, and pollutants, throughout the middle to high latitudes. In addition, atmospheric circulation interacts with temporal variations (synoptic to monthly scales, inter-annual, decadal, etc.) of sea ice extent and concentration. We also investigate associations between Antarctic atmospheric circulation features, notably the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), and primary climate teleconnections including the SAM (Southern Annular Mode), ENSO (El Nîno Southern Oscillation), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and solar irradiance variations.

Anomalous mid-twentieth century atmospheric circulation change over the South Atlantic compared to the last 6000 years

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Turney, Chris S. M.; Jones, Richard T.; Lister, David

Determining the timing and impact of anthropogenic climate change in data-sparse regions is a considerable challenge. Arguably, nowhere is this more difficult than the Antarctic Peninsula and the subantarctic South Atlantic where observational records are relatively short but where high rates of warming have been experienced since records began. Here we interrogate recently developed monthly-resolved observational datasets from the Falkland Islands and South Georgia, and extend the records back using climate-sensitive peat growth over the past 6000 years. Investigating the subantarctic climate data with ERA-Interim and Twentieth Century Reanalysis, we find that a stepped increase in precipitation across the 1940smore » is related to a change in synoptic atmospheric circulation: a westward migration of quasi-permanent positive pressure anomalies in the South Atlantic has brought the subantarctic islands under the increased influence of meridional airflow associated with the Amundsen Sea Low. Analysis of three comprehensively multi-dated (using 14C and 137Cs) peat sequences across the two islands demonstrates unprecedented growth rates since the mid-twentieth century relative to the last 6000 years. Comparison to observational and reconstructed sea surface temperatures suggests this change is linked to a warming tropical Pacific Ocean. Lastly, our results imply 'modern' South Atlantic atmospheric circulation has not been under this configuration for millennia.« less

Anomalous mid-twentieth century atmospheric circulation change over the South Atlantic compared to the last 6000 years

DOE PAGES

Turney, Chris S. M.; Jones, Richard T.; Lister, David; ...

2016-06-09

Determining the timing and impact of anthropogenic climate change in data-sparse regions is a considerable challenge. Arguably, nowhere is this more difficult than the Antarctic Peninsula and the subantarctic South Atlantic where observational records are relatively short but where high rates of warming have been experienced since records began. Here we interrogate recently developed monthly-resolved observational datasets from the Falkland Islands and South Georgia, and extend the records back using climate-sensitive peat growth over the past 6000 years. Investigating the subantarctic climate data with ERA-Interim and Twentieth Century Reanalysis, we find that a stepped increase in precipitation across the 1940smore » is related to a change in synoptic atmospheric circulation: a westward migration of quasi-permanent positive pressure anomalies in the South Atlantic has brought the subantarctic islands under the increased influence of meridional airflow associated with the Amundsen Sea Low. Analysis of three comprehensively multi-dated (using 14C and 137Cs) peat sequences across the two islands demonstrates unprecedented growth rates since the mid-twentieth century relative to the last 6000 years. Comparison to observational and reconstructed sea surface temperatures suggests this change is linked to a warming tropical Pacific Ocean. Lastly, our results imply 'modern' South Atlantic atmospheric circulation has not been under this configuration for millennia.« less

Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends.

PubMed

Desai, A R; Wohlfahrt, G; Zeeman, M J; Katata, G; Eugster, W; Montagnani, L; Gianelle, D; Mauder, M; Schmid, H-P

2016-02-01

Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies.

Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desai, A. R.; Wohlfahrt, G.; Zeeman, M. J.; Katata, G.; Eugster, W.; Montagnani, L.; Gianelle, D.; Mauder, M.; Schmid, H.-P.

2016-02-01

Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies.

Dynamical Downscaling of Seasonal Climate Prediction over Nordeste Brazil with ECHAM3 and NCEP's Regional Spectral Models at IRI.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobre, Paulo; Moura, Antonio D.; Sun, Liqiang

2001-12-01

This study presents an evaluation of a seasonal climate forecast done with the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) dynamical forecast system (regional model nested into a general circulation model) over northern South America for January-April 1999, encompassing the rainy season over Brazil's Nordeste. The one-way nesting is one in two tiers: first the NCEP's Regional Spectral Model (RSM) runs with an 80-km grid mesh forced by the ECHAM3 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) outputs; then the RSM runs with a finer grid mesh (20 km) forced by the forecasts generated by the RSM-80. An ensemble of three realizations is done. Lower boundary conditions over the oceans for both ECHAM and RSM model runs are sea surface temperature forecasts over the tropical oceans. Soil moisture is initialized by ECHAM's inputs. The rainfall forecasts generated by the regional model are compared with those of the AGCM and observations. It is shown that the regional model at 80-km resolution improves upon the AGCM rainfall forecast, reducing both seasonal bias and root-mean-square error. On the other hand, the RSM-20 forecasts presented larger errors, with spatial patterns that resemble those of local topography. The better forecast of the position and width of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over the tropical Atlantic by the RSM-80 model is one of the principal reasons for better-forecast scores of the RSM-80 relative to the AGCM. The regional model improved the spatial as well as the temporal details of rainfall distribution, and also presenting the minimum spread among the ensemble members. The statistics of synoptic-scale weather variability on seasonal timescales were best forecast with the regional 80-km model over the Nordeste. The possibility of forecasting the frequency distribution of dry and wet spells within the rainy season is encouraging.

Application of meteorology-based methods to determine local and external contributions to particulate matter pollution: A case study in Venice (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Squizzato, Stefania; Masiol, Mauro

2015-10-01

The air quality is influenced by the potential effects of meteorology at meso- and synoptic scales. While local weather and mixing layer dynamics mainly drive the dispersion of sources at small scales, long-range transports affect the movements of air masses over regional, transboundary and even continental scales. Long-range transport may advect polluted air masses from hot-spots by increasing the levels of pollution at nearby or remote locations or may further raise air pollution levels where external air masses originate from other hot-spots. Therefore, the knowledge of ground-wind circulation and potential long-range transports is fundamental not only to evaluate how local or external sources may affect the air quality at a receptor site but also to quantify it. This review is focussed on establishing the relationships among PM2.5 sources, meteorological condition and air mass origin in the Po Valley, which is one of the most polluted areas in Europe. We have chosen the results from a recent study carried out in Venice (Eastern Po Valley) and have analysed them using different statistical approaches to understand the influence of external and local contribution of PM2.5 sources. External contributions were evaluated by applying Trajectory Statistical Methods (TSMs) based on back-trajectory analysis including (i) back-trajectories cluster analysis, (ii) potential source contribution function (PSCF) and (iii) concentration weighted trajectory (CWT). Furthermore, the relationships between the source contributions and ground-wind circulation patterns were investigated by using (iv) cluster analysis on wind data and (v) conditional probability function (CPF). Finally, local source contribution have been estimated by applying the Lenschow' approach. In summary, the integrated approach of different techniques has successfully identified both local and external sources of particulate matter pollution in a European hot-spot affected by the worst air quality.

Urbanization-induced urban heat island and aerosol effects on climate extremes in the Yangtze River Delta region of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Shi; Qian, Yun; Zhao, Chun; Leung, Ruby; Wang, Hailong; Yang, Ben; Fan, Jiwen; Yan, Huiping; Yang, Xiu-Qun; Liu, Dongqing

2017-04-01

The WRF-Chem model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) is integrated for 5 years at convection-permitting scale to investigate the individual and combined impacts of urbanization-induced changes in land cover and pollutant emissions on regional climate in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in eastern China. Simulations with the urbanization effects reasonably reproduced the observed features of temperature and precipitation in the YRD region. Urbanization over the YRD induces an urban heat island (UHI) effect, which increases the surface temperature by 0.53 °C in summer and increases the annual heat wave days at a rate of 3.7 d yr-1 in the major megacities in the YRD, accompanied by intensified heat stress. In winter, the near-surface air temperature increases by approximately 0.7 °C over commercial areas in the cities but decreases in the surrounding areas. Radiative effects of aerosols tend to cool the surface air by reducing net shortwave radiation at the surface. Compared to the more localized UHI effect, aerosol effects on solar radiation and temperature influence a much larger area, especially downwind of the city cluster in the YRD. Results also show that the UHI increases the frequency of extreme summer precipitation by strengthening the convergence and updrafts over urbanized areas in the afternoon, which favor the development of deep convection. In contrast, the radiative forcing of aerosols results in a surface cooling and upper-atmospheric heating, which enhances atmospheric stability and suppresses convection. The combined effects of the UHI and aerosols on precipitation depend on synoptic conditions. Two rainfall events under two typical but different synoptic weather patterns are further analyzed. It is shown that the impact of urban land cover and aerosols on precipitation is not only determined by their influence on local convergence but also modulated by large-scale weather systems. For the case with a strong synoptic forcing associated with stronger winds and larger spatial convergence, the UHI and aerosol effects are relatively weak. When the synoptic forcing is weak, however, the UHI and aerosol effects on local convergence dominate. This suggests that synoptic forcing plays a significant role in modulating the urbanization-induced land-cover and aerosol effects on individual rainfall event. Hence precipitation changes due to urbanization effects may offset each other under different synoptic conditions, resulting in little changes in mean precipitation at longer timescales.

Urbanization-induced urban heat island and aerosol effects on climate extremes in the Yangtze River Delta region of China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhong, Shi; Qian, Yun; Zhao, Chun

The WRF-Chem model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) is integrated for 5 years at convection-permitting scale to investigate the individual and combined impacts of urbanization-induced changes in land cover and pollutant emissions on regional climate in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in eastern China. Simulations with the urbanization effects reasonably reproduced the observed features of temperature and precipitation in the YRD region. Urbanization over the YRD induces an urban heat island (UHI) effect, which increases the surface temperature by 0.53 °C in summer and increases the annual heat wave days at a rate of 3.7 d yr −1 in themore » major megacities in the YRD, accompanied by intensified heat stress. In winter, the near-surface air temperature increases by approximately 0.7 °C over commercial areas in the cities but decreases in the surrounding areas. Radiative effects of aerosols tend to cool the surface air by reducing net shortwave radiation at the surface. Compared to the more localized UHI effect, aerosol effects on solar radiation and temperature influence a much larger area, especially downwind of the city cluster in the YRD. Results also show that the UHI increases the frequency of extreme summer precipitation by strengthening the convergence and updrafts over urbanized areas in the afternoon, which favor the development of deep convection. In contrast, the radiative forcing of aerosols results in a surface cooling and upper-atmospheric heating, which enhances atmospheric stability and suppresses convection. The combined effects of the UHI and aerosols on precipitation depend on synoptic conditions. Two rainfall events under two typical but different synoptic weather patterns are further analyzed. It is shown that the impact of urban land cover and aerosols on precipitation is not only determined by their influence on local convergence but also modulated by large-scale weather systems. For the case with a strong synoptic forcing associated with stronger winds and larger spatial convergence, the UHI and aerosol effects are relatively weak. When the synoptic forcing is weak, however, the UHI and aerosol effects on local convergence dominate. This suggests that synoptic forcing plays a significant role in modulating the urbanization-induced land-cover and aerosol effects on individual rainfall event. Hence precipitation changes due to urbanization effects may offset each other under different synoptic conditions, resulting in little changes in mean precipitation at longer timescales.« less

Urbanization-induced urban heat island and aerosol effects on climate extremes in the Yangtze River Delta region of China

DOE PAGES

Zhong, Shi; Qian, Yun; Zhao, Chun; ...

2017-04-27

The WRF-Chem model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) is integrated for 5 years at convection-permitting scale to investigate the individual and combined impacts of urbanization-induced changes in land cover and pollutant emissions on regional climate in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in eastern China. Simulations with the urbanization effects reasonably reproduced the observed features of temperature and precipitation in the YRD region. Urbanization over the YRD induces an urban heat island (UHI) effect, which increases the surface temperature by 0.53 °C in summer and increases the annual heat wave days at a rate of 3.7 d yr −1 in themore » major megacities in the YRD, accompanied by intensified heat stress. In winter, the near-surface air temperature increases by approximately 0.7 °C over commercial areas in the cities but decreases in the surrounding areas. Radiative effects of aerosols tend to cool the surface air by reducing net shortwave radiation at the surface. Compared to the more localized UHI effect, aerosol effects on solar radiation and temperature influence a much larger area, especially downwind of the city cluster in the YRD. Results also show that the UHI increases the frequency of extreme summer precipitation by strengthening the convergence and updrafts over urbanized areas in the afternoon, which favor the development of deep convection. In contrast, the radiative forcing of aerosols results in a surface cooling and upper-atmospheric heating, which enhances atmospheric stability and suppresses convection. The combined effects of the UHI and aerosols on precipitation depend on synoptic conditions. Two rainfall events under two typical but different synoptic weather patterns are further analyzed. It is shown that the impact of urban land cover and aerosols on precipitation is not only determined by their influence on local convergence but also modulated by large-scale weather systems. For the case with a strong synoptic forcing associated with stronger winds and larger spatial convergence, the UHI and aerosol effects are relatively weak. When the synoptic forcing is weak, however, the UHI and aerosol effects on local convergence dominate. This suggests that synoptic forcing plays a significant role in modulating the urbanization-induced land-cover and aerosol effects on individual rainfall event. Hence precipitation changes due to urbanization effects may offset each other under different synoptic conditions, resulting in little changes in mean precipitation at longer timescales.« less

Hydrologic processes in China and their association with summer precipitation anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Pollard, D.; Barron, E. J.

2005-01-01

A climate version of MM5 is applied to study hydrologic processes in China and their association with precipitation anomalies in 1980 and 1985, which are two anomalous years with opposite signs of summer precipitation anomalies. The study reveals that anomalous atmospheric moisture transport due to synoptic scale circulation was primarily responsible for initiating the anomalous wet (dry) summer in south-central China and dry (wet) summer in northeastern China in 1980 (1985). The recycling ratio (defined as contribution of local evaporation to total precipitation) ranges from less than 4% in northwestern China to more than 30% in south-central China at 1000 km space scale. Higher (lower) values of recycling ratio correspond to drier (wetter) summers in south-central China and northeastern China. However, the opposite is true in northwestern China. The recycling ratio reflects feedback among hydrologic components over both land and atmosphere. In northwestern China, these feedbacks will further sustain drought events that are triggered by anomalous synoptic scale disturbances, and turn them into prolonged and possibly perpetual phenomenon. However, in south-central China and northeastern China, these feedbacks help reducing severity of drought. The large differences in recycling ratio between the dry and wet years of 1980 and 1985 are indicative of powerful feedback between hydrologic and climatic processes, and imply that surface-atmosphere interaction in China is highly sensitive to climatic perturbation.

The Climatology of Low-Level Jet in Beijing and Guangzhou, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Yucong; Guo, Jianping; Liu, Shuhua; Wei, Wei; Zhang, Gen; Lin, Yanluan; Zhai, Panmao

2018-03-01

The important roles of low-level jet (LLJ) in transport of heat, moisture, and pollutants have long been recognized. However, partly due to the lack of long-term observations, the characteristics of LLJs in Beijing and Guangzhou have not been well understood. Using long-term wind profiler observations and numerical simulations, the basic climatological characteristics of LLJ in Beijing and Guangzhou were documented, and their relationships with large- and local-scale forcings were investigated. The occurrence frequencies of LLJ in both megacities approximately exhibit a bimodal distribution during an annual cycle. In terms of the seasonality, the LLJs in Beijing occur more often in spring and winter, and those in Guangzhou appear more frequently from October to December and from February to April. Pronounced diurnal variations of LLJ are found in Beijing, where most LLJs occurred during the nighttime, and the diurnal variations of LLJ in Guangzhou are less prominent. Favorable synoptic conditions for LLJ formations in Beijing are those having a southwest-northeast or southeast-northwest pressure gradient across Beijing. Dominant synoptic patterns associated with LLJs in Guangzhou are those having a low-pressure or high-pressure system to the northwest. Overall, the LLJs are primarily induced by synoptic forcings and modulated by the diurnal evolution of planetary boundary layer. The key findings from this study provide us a better understanding of the LLJs in these highly populated regions.

Preserving a Unique Archive for Long-Term Solar Variability Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, David F.; Hewins, Ian; McFadden, Robert; Emery, Barbara; Gibson, Sarah; Denig, William

2016-05-01

In 1964 (solar cycle 20) Patrick McIntosh began creating hand-drawn synoptic maps of solar activity, based on Hydrogen alpha (Hα) imaging measurements. These synoptic maps were unique because they traced the polarity inversion lines (PILs), connecting widely separated filaments, fibril patterns and plage corridors to reveal the large-scale organization of the solar magnetic field. He and his assistants later included coronal hole (CH) boundaries to the maps, usually from ground-based He-I 10830 images. They continued making these maps until 2010 (the start of solar cycle 24), yielding more than 40 years (~ 540 Carrington rotations) or nearly four complete solar cycles (SCs) of synoptic maps. The McIntosh collection of maps forms a unique and consistent set of global solar magnetic field data, and are unique tools for studying the structure and evolution of the large-scale solar fields and polarity boundaries, because: 1) they have excellent spatial resolution for defining polarity boundaries, 2) the organization of the fields into long-lived, coherent features is clear, and 3) the data are relatively homogeneous over four solar cycles. After digitization and archiving, these maps -- along with computer codes permitting efficient searches of the map arrays -- will be made publicly available at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) in their final, searchable form. This poster is a progress report of the project so far and some suggested scientific applications.

Studying ocean acidification in the Arctic Ocean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, Lisa

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) partnership with the U.S. Coast Guard Ice Breaker Healey and its United Nations Convention Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) cruises has produced new synoptic data from samples collected in the Arctic Ocean and insights into the patterns and extent of ocean acidification. This framework of foundational geochemical information will help inform our understanding of potential risks to Arctic resources due to ocean acidification.

Antarctic mesocyclone regimes from satellite and conventional data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitch, Mark; Carleton, Andrew M.

1992-03-01

Mesoscale vortices in the Antarctic, poleward of 50°S, are examined in the synoptic context for the Ross Sea sector (100°E eastward to 80°W) for transition and winter months of 1988, using DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program) thermal infrared (TIR) images. Mesoscale vortices are classified and tracked and the dominant characteristics, such as life span, speed of movement and preferred geographical locations of formation, are defined and discussed. A "superposed epoch" (compositing) method utilizing 1000 and 500mb height data identifies the dominant synoptic regimes in which mesoscale vortices tend to develop. This analysis indicates that during active or outbreak periods, a negative thickness anomaly ("cold pool") is located northeast of the Ross Sea, and mesoscale vortices tend to occur on the poleward side of that anomaly. In addition, an enhanced trough-ridge pattern is evident for the Ross Sea sector compared with the composite pattern for inactive, or dearth, periods. The active periods of mesoscale vortices appear to originate from Antarctica, possibly via the persistent katabatic outflows from the ice sheet, rather than from teleconnections to lower latitudes. Analysis of Automatic Weather Station (AWS) data for the Ross Sea region supports this notion, at least for individual cases. Confirmation of these findings for the corresponding months of additional years is continuing.

Investigation of nitrogen transformations in a southern California constructed wastewater treatment wetland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sartoris, J.J.; Thullen, J.S.; Barber, L.B.; Salas, D.E.

2000-01-01

A 9.9-ha combined habitat and wastewater treatment demonstration wetland was constructed and planted in the summer of 1994, at Eastern Municipal Water District’s (EMWD) Hemet/San Jacinto Regional Water Reclamation Facility (RWRF) in southern California. From January 1996 through September 1997, the marsh–pond–marsh wetland system was operated to polish an average of 3785 m3 d−1 (1×106 gal day−1) of secondary-treated effluent from the RWRF. Nitrogen removal was a major objective of this wetland treatment. Weekly inflow/outflow water quality monitoring of the wetland was supplemented with biannual, 45-station synoptic surveys within the system to determine internal distribution patterns of the nitrogen species (total ammonia, nitrite, nitrate, and organic nitrogen), total organic carbon (TOC), and ultraviolet absorbance at 254 nm (UV254). Synoptic surveys were carried out during May 22 and September 17, 1996, and May 6 and September 25, 1997 and the results were mapped using the ARC/INFO processing package and inverse distance weighted mathematical techniques. Distribution patterns of the various nitrogen species, TOC, and UV254 within the wetland indicate that the nitrogen dynamics of the system are influenced both by variations in treatment plant loading, and, increasingly, by the degree of coverage and maturity of the emergent vegetation.

Spatiotemporal variability and meteorological control of particulate matter pollution in a large open-pit coal mining region in Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morales Rincon, L. A.; Jimenez-Pizarro, R.; Porras-Diaz, H.

2012-12-01

Luis Morales-Rincon (1), Hernan Porras-Diaz (1), Rodrigo Jiménez (2,*) (1) Geomatic Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad Industrial de Santander, Bucaramanga, Santander 680002, Colombia; (2) Air Quality Research Group, Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogota, DC 111321, Colombia *Corresponding author: phone +57-1-316-5000 ext. 14099, fax +57-1-316-5334, e-mail rjimenezp@unal.edu.co The semi-desertic area of Central Cesar, Colombia, produced approximately 44 million tons of coal in 2011. This mining activity has been intensively developed since 2005. There are currently 7 large-scale mining projects in that area. The coal industry has strongly impacted not only the ecosystems, but also the neighboring communities around the coal mines. The main goal of the research work was to characterize spatial and temporal variations of particulate matter (total suspended particulates - TSP - and particulate matter below 10 μm - PM10) as measured at various air quality monitoring stations in Cesar's coal industry region as well as to study the relationship between these variability and meteorological factors. The analysis of the meteorological time series of revealed a complex atmospheric circulation in the region. No clear repetitive diurnal circulation patterns were observed, i.e. statistical mean patterns do not physically represent the actual atmospheric circulation. We attribute this complexity to the interdependence between local and synoptic phenomena over a low altitude, relatively flat area. On the other hand, a comparison of air quality in the mining area with a perimeter station indicates that coal industry in central Cesar has a mayor effect on the levels of particulate matter in the region. Particulate matter concentration is highly variable throughout the year. The strong correlation between TSP and PM10 indicates that secondary aerosols are of minor importance. Furthermore, particle concentrations are the highest in January and February, being the correlation between the TSP and PM10 measurements not as strong during this time period. This could be associated with the spatial and temporal variability of wet deposition as well as a larger mechanical and eolic resuspension of particles. We found that precipitation drastically reduces the levels of particulate matter. In order to describe the effect of wet deposition, a mathematical model was developed based on a first order relaxation proportional to the precipitation rate. Daily average concentrations and daily accumulated precipitation were used in this model, which showed high concentration reductions even for low precipitation levels essentially for all stations. Monthly precipitation values showed a better correlation with TSP concentrations. Finally, we found evidence of a significant decrease in global radiation due to particulate matter, particularly during the dry season, which could potentially affect farming and agricultural activities in the region.

Principal locations of major-ion, trace-element, nitrate, and Escherichia coli loading to Emigration Creek, Salt Lake County, Utah, October 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kimball, Briant A.; Runkel, Robert L.; Walton-Day, Katherine

2008-01-01

Housing development and recreational activity in Emigration Canyon have increased substantially since 1980, perhaps causing an observed decrease in water quality of this northern Utah stream located near Salt Lake City. To identify reaches of the stream that contribute to water-quality degradation, a tracer-injection and synoptic-sampling study was done to quantify mass loading of major ions, trace elements, nitrate, and Escherichia coli (E. coli) to the stream. The resulting mass-loading profiles for major ions and trace elements indicate both geologic and anthropogenic inputs to the stream, principally from tributary and spring inflows to the stream at Brigham Fork, Burr Fork, Wagner Spring, Emigration Tunnel Spring, Blacksmith Hollow, and Killyon Canyon. The pattern of nitrate loading does not correspond to the major-ion and trace-element loading patterns. Nitrate levels in the stream did not exceed water-quality standards at the time of synoptic sampling. The majority of nitrate mass loading can be considered related to anthropogenic input, based on the field settings and trends in stable isotope ratios of nitrogen. The pattern of E. coli loading does not correspond to the major-ion, trace-element, or nitrate loading patterns. The majority of E. coli loading was related to anthropogenic sources based on field setting, but a considerable part of the loading also comes from possible animal sources in Killyon Canyon, in Perkins Flat, and in Rotary Park. In this late summer sampling, E. coli concentrations only exceeded water-quality standards in limited sections of the study reach. The mass-loading approach used in this study provides a means to design future studies and to evaluate the loading on a catchment scale.

An Investigation of Topography Modulated Low Level Moisture Convergence Patterns in the Southern Appalachians Using WRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, A. M.; Duan, Y.; Barros, A.

2015-12-01

The Southern Appalachian Mountains (SAM) region is a biodiversity hot-spot that is vulnerable to land use/land cover changes due to its proximity to the rapidly growing population in the Southeast U.S. Persistent near surface moisture and associated microclimates observed in this region have been documented since the colonization of the area. The landform in this area, in particular in the inner mountain region, is highly complex with nested valleys and ridges. The geometry of the terrain causes distinct diurnal and seasonal local flow patterns that result in highly complex interactions of this low level moisture with meso- and synoptic-scale cyclones passing through the region. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) was used to conduct high resolution simulations of several case studies of warm season precipitation in the SAM with different synoptic-scale conditions to investigate this interaction between local and larger-scale flow patterns. The aim is to elucidate the microphysical interactions among these shallow orographic clouds and preexisting precipitating cloud systems and identify uncertainties in the model microphysics using in situ measurements. Findings show that ridge-valley precipitation gradients, in particular the "reverse" to the classical orographic effect observed in inner mountain valleys, is linked to horizontal heterogeneity in the vertical structure of low level cloud and precipitation promoted through landform controls on local flow. Moisture convergence patterns follow the peaks and valleys as represented by WRF terrain, and the topography effectively controls their timing and spatial structure. The simulations support the hypothesis that ridge-valley precipitation gradients, and in particular the reverse orographic enhancement effect in inner mountain valleys, is linked to horizontal heterogeneity in the vertical structure of low level clouds and precipitation promoted through landform controls on moisture convergence.

The relation between air pollution data and planetary boundary layer quantities in a complex coastal industrial site nearby populated areas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mammarella, M. C.; Grandoni, G.; Fernando, J.; Cacciani, M.; di Sabatino, S.; Favaron, M.; Fedele, P.

2010-09-01

The connection among boundary layer phenomena, atmospheric pollutant dynamics and human health is an established fact, taking many different forms depending on local characteristics, including slope and position of relief and/or coastline, surface roughness, emission patterns. The problem is especially interesting in complex and coastal terrain, where concurrence of slope and sea induced local circulation interact reciprocally, yielding a complex pattern whose interpretation may go beyond pure modeling, and devise specific measurements among which the planetary boundary layer (PBL) height. An occasion for studying this important theme has been offered by Regione Molise and Valle del Biferno Consortium (COSIB), for the specific case of the industrial complex of Valle del Biferno, 3 km inland of Termoli, in Central Italy, on the Adriatic coast. The local government, sensitive to air quality and public health in the industrial area, together with COSIB has co-financed a research project aimed at gaining knowledge about local meteorology, PBL phenomena and atmospheric pollutant dispersion in the area. Expected results include new air quality monitoring and control methodologies in Valle del Biferno for a sustainable development in an environmentally respectful manner, at a site already characterized by a high environmental and landscape value. The research project, developed by ENEA, has began in 2007 and will conclude in December 2010. Project activities involve research group from Europe, the United States of America, and the Russian Federation. Scientific and practical results will be published and presented in occasion of the final workshop to be held on project conclusion. The scientific interest of Valle del Biferno case stems from the specific local characteristics at site. Given the valley orientation respect to mean synoptic circulation, local effects as sea and slope breezes are dominant, and a complex wind regime develops affecting local transport and diffusion of pollutants emitted in the area of the industrial complex. All effects studied, although influenced by local conditions, characterize not only this industrial area but all areas located along the coastline. This location is highly frequent in Italy and the World, as most industrial complexes in the World occur at coastal sites, where access to harbors and transport networks are facilitated. The Valle del Biferno case may then yield important data to many industrial sites.

Wet deposition at the base of Mt Everest: Seasonal evolution of the chemistry and isotopic composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balestrini, Raffaella; Delconte, Carlo A.; Sacchi, Elisa; Wilson, Alana M.; Williams, Mark W.; Cristofanelli, Paolo; Putero, Davide

2016-12-01

The chemistry of wet deposition was investigated during 2012-2014 at the Pyramid International Laboratory in the Upper Khumbu Valley, Nepal, at 5050 m a.s.l., within the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) programme. The main hydro-chemical species and stable isotopes of the water molecule were determined for monsoon rain (July-September) and snow samples (October-June). To evaluate the synoptic-scale variability of air masses reaching the measurement site, 5 day back-trajectories were computed for the sampling period. Ion concentrations in precipitation during the monsoon were low suggesting that they represent global regional background concentrations. The associations between ions suggested that the principal sources of chemical species were marine aerosols, rock and soil dust, and fossil fuel combustion. Most chemical species exhibited a pattern during the monsoon, with maxima at the beginning and at the end of the season, partially correlated with the precipitation amount. Snow samples exhibited significantly higher concentrations of chemical species, compared to the monsoon rainfall observations. Particularly during 2013, elevated concentrations of NO3-, SO42- and NH4+ were measured in the first winter snow event, and in May at the end of the pre-monsoon season. The analysis of large-scale circulation and wind regimes as well as atmospheric composition observations in the region indicates the transport of polluted air masses from the Himalayan foothills and Indian sub-continent up to the Himalaya region. During the summer monsoon onset period, the greater values of pollutants can be attributed to air-mass transport from the planetary boundary layer (PBL) of the Indo-Gangetic plains. Isotopic data confirm that during the monsoon period, precipitation occurred from water vapor that originated from the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal; by contrast during the non-monsoon period, an isotopic signature of more continental origin appeared, indicating that the higher recorded NO3- and SO42- concentrations could be ascribed to a change in air circulation patterns. A comparison of recent monsoon deposition chemistry with data from the 1990's shows similar levels of contaminants in the rainfall. However, non-monsoon deposition can be significant, as it largely contributed to the ion wet deposition fluxes for all analyzed species in 2013.

Applications of HCMM data to soil moisture snow and estuarine current studies. [Cooper River and Delaware Bay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiesnet, D. R. (Principal Investigator); Mcginnis, D. F.; Matson, M.

1980-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The HCMM thermal data are useful for monitoring estuarine surface thermal patterns. Estuarine thermal patterns, are, under certain conditions, indicative of the surface tidal current circulation patterns. Under optimum conditions, estuaries as small as the Cooper River (i.e., approximately 100 sq km) can be monitored for tidal/thermal circulation patterns by HCMM-type IR sensors.

Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J.

2017-05-01

Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25-48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.

Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J.

2017-01-01

Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25–48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.

Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns.

PubMed

Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J

2017-05-23

Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25-48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.

Bone Marrow Synoptic Reporting for Hematologic Neoplasms: Guideline From the College of American Pathologists Pathology and Laboratory Quality Center.

PubMed

Sever, Cordelia; Abbott, Charles L; de Baca, Monica E; Khoury, Joseph D; Perkins, Sherrie L; Reichard, Kaaren Kemp; Taylor, Ann; Terebelo, Howard R; Colasacco, Carol; Rumble, R Bryan; Thomas, Nicole E

2016-09-01

-There is ample evidence from the solid tumor literature that synoptic reporting improves accuracy and completeness of relevant data. No evidence-based guidelines currently exist for synoptic reporting for bone marrow samples. -To develop evidence-based recommendations to standardize the basic components of a synoptic report template for bone marrow samples. -The College of American Pathologists Pathology and Laboratory Quality Center convened a panel of experts in hematopathology to develop recommendations. A systematic evidence review was conducted to address 5 key questions. Recommendations were derived from strength of evidence, open comment feedback, and expert panel consensus. -Nine guideline statements were established to provide pathology laboratories with a framework by which to develop synoptic reporting templates for bone marrow samples. The guideline calls for specific data groups in the synoptic section of the pathology report; provides a list of evidence-based parameters for key, pertinent elements; and addresses ancillary testing. -A framework for bone marrow synoptic reporting will improve completeness of the final report in a manner that is clear, succinct, and consistent among institutions.

Possible influence of atmospheric circulations on winter haze pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z. Y.

2016-12-01

Using the daily records derived from the synoptic weather stations and the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-Interim reanalysis data, the variability of the winter haze pollutions (indicated by the mean visibility and number of hazy days) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region during the period 1981 to 2015 and its relationship to the atmospheric circulations in middle-high latitude were analyzed in this study. The winter haze pollution in BTH had distinct inter-annual and inter-decadal variabilities without a significant long-term trend. According to the spatial distribution of correlation coefficients, six atmospheric circulation indices (I1 to I6) were defined from the key areas in sea level pressure (SLP), zonal and meridional winds at 850 hPa (U850, V850), geopotential height field at 500 hPa (H500), zonal wind at 200 hPa (U200), and air temperature at 200 hPa (T200), respectively. All of the six indices have significant and stable correlations with the winter visibility and number of hazy days in BTH. The six circulation indices together can explain 77.7% (78.7%) and 61.7% (69.1%) variances of the winter visibility and number of hazy days in the year-to-year (inter-annual) variability, srespectively. The increase of Ic(a comprehensive index derived from the six individual circulation indices) can cause a shallowing of the East Asian trough at the middle troposphere and a weakening of the Siberian high pressure field at sea level, and then accompanied by a reduction (increase) of horizontal advection and vertical convection (relative humidity) in the lowest troposphere and a reduced boundary layer height in BTH and its neighboring areas, which are favorable for the formation of haze pollutions in BTH winter, and vice versa. The high level of the prediction statistics and the reasonable mechanism suggested that the winter haze pollutions in BTH can be forecasted or estimated credibly based on the optimized atmospheric circulation indices. Thus it is helpful for government decision-making departments to take actions in advance in dealing with probably severe haze pollutions in BTH indicated by the atmospheric circulation conditions.

Impact of lake breezes on ozone and nitrogen oxides in the Greater Toronto Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wentworth, G. R.; Murphy, J. G.; Sills, D. M. L.

2015-05-01

Meteorological and air quality datasets from summertime (May to September, 2010-2012) were analysed in order to assess the influence of lake-breeze circulations on pollutant levels in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). While previous estimates of the frequency of summer days experiencing lake breezes range between 25 and 32 % for the GTA, a simple algorithm using surface meteorological observations suggested Lake Ontario breezes occurred on 56% of summer days, whereas a more reliable multiplatform approach yielded a frequency of 74%. Data from five air quality stations across the GTA were used to compare air quality on days during which a lake-breeze circulation formed ("lake breeze days") versus days when one did not ("non-lake breeze days"). Average daytime O3 maxima were 13.6-14.8 ppb higher on lake breeze days relative to non-lake breeze days. Furthermore, the Ontario Ambient Air Quality Criteria (AAQC) for 1-h average O3 (80 ppb) and 8-h average O3 (65 ppb) were exceeded only on lake breeze days and occurred on a total of 30 and 54 days throughout the study period, respectively. A causal link between lake-breeze circulations and enhanced O3 was identified by examining several days in which only some of the air quality sites were inside the lake-breeze circulation. O3 mixing ratios at sites located within the circulation were at least 30 ppb higher than sites outside the circulation, despite similar temperatures, cloud conditions and synoptic regimes across the region. Rapid O3 increases were concurrent with the arrival of the lake-breeze front, suggesting O3-rich air from over the lake is being advected inland throughout the day. Lake-breeze circulations were found to have less impact on nitrogen oxide (NOx) levels. Morning NOx was greater on lake breeze days, probably due to the stagnant conditions favourable for lake breeze formation. During the late afternoon, only inland sites experience increased NOx on lake breeze days, likely as a result of being downwind from near-shore city centres.

A numerical study of circulation in the Gulf of Riga, Baltic Sea. Part I: Whole-basin gyres and mean currents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lips, Urmas; Zhurbas, Victor; Skudra, Maris; Väli, Germo

2016-01-01

A regional model of the Gulf of Riga (GoR) with horizontal grid spacing of 0.5 nautical miles was applied to study the features and driving forces of the whole-basin circulation in the GoR. The initial conditions and atmospheric forcing were taken from the operational models High Resolution Operational Model for the Baltic (HIROMB) and High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM), respectively. The wind stress curl is shown to be a major contributor to the whole-basin circulation pattern. An anticyclonic circulation pattern in the summer is determined by a combined effect of the negative wind stress curl, thermal density stratification and bottom topography. Positive values of the wind stress curl and a cyclonic circulation pattern prevail during the cold period of the year when seasonal thermocline is absent. During calm periods, the anticyclonic type of circulation is established due to a combined effect of the river runoff, saltier water inflow into and mixed water outflow from the GoR. Two seasonal baroclinic jet-like currents are identified in the summer: the Northward Longshore Current in the western GoR and Southward Subsurface Longshore Current in the eastern GoR. The alteration of the circulation pattern in the GoR from cyclonic in the cold period of the year to anticyclonic in the summer, and vice versa, was shown to be observed not every year due to inter-annual variability of wind forcing.

CENTER FOR CLIMATIC RESEARCH, UNIVERSITY OF DELAWARE

EPA Science Inventory

The synoptic climatology group performs research into a variety of applied climatological issues that affect humans and other organisms around the world. Synoptic climatology is essentially an holistic approach to weather and climate. Synoptic climatologists attempt to characteri...

A preliminary look at AVE-SESAME 5 conducted on 20-21 May 1979

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

July, M.; Turner, R. E.

1981-01-01

Information on data collected, synoptic conditions, and severe and unusual weather reported during the period are presented. Records of the synoptic conditions include synoptic charts, radar charts, satellite photographs, and rainfall observations.

An investigation of relationships between meso- and synoptic-scale phenomena

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scoggins, J. R.; Wood, J. E.; Fuelberg, H. E.; Read, W. L.

1972-01-01

Methods based on the vorticity equation, the adiabatic method, the curvature of the vertical wind profile, and the structure of synoptic waves are used to determine areas of positive vertical motion in the mid-troposphere for a period in each season. Parameters indicative of low-level moisture and conditional instability are areas in which mesoscale systems may be present. The best association between mesoscale and synoptic-scale phenomena was found for a period during December when synoptic-scale systems were well developed. A good association between meso- and synoptic-scale events also was found for a period during March, while the poorest association was found for a June period. Daytime surface heating apparently is an important factor in the formation of mesoscale systems during the summer. It is concluded that the formation of mesoscale phenomena may be determined essentially from synoptic-scale conditions during winter, late fall, and early spring.

Determination of circulation and turbidity patterns in Kerr Lake from LANDSAT MSS imagery. [Kerr Lake, Virginia, North Carolina

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lecroy, S. R. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

The LANDSAT imagery was historically analyzed to determine the circulation and turbidity patterns of Kerr Lake, located on the Virginia-North Carolina border. By examining the seasonal and regional turbidity and circulation patterns, a record of sediment transport and possible disposition can be obtained. Sketches were generated, displaying different intensities of brightness observed in bands 5 and 7 of LANDSAT's multispectral scanner data. Differences in and between bands 5 and 7 indicate variances in the levels of surface sediment concentrations. High sediment loads are revealed when distinct patterns appear in the band 7 imagery. The upwelled signal is exponential in nature and saturates in band 5 at low wavelengths for large concentrations of suspended solids.

Circulation system configuration characteristics of four rainfall patterns in summer over the East China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Junhu; Yang, Liu; Feng, Guolin

2018-02-01

In this study, the simultaneous atmospheric circulation system configuration characteristics of the four rainfall patterns (FRP) over the East China during the period 1951-2015 are analyzed in order to investigate their formation mechanisms. The results confirm that the FRP possess obvious differences in the upper-level, middle-level, and lower-level troposphere. In northern China rainfall pattern (NCP) years, the East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream (EAJS) shows a northward trend, with a higher intensity than normal; the blocking high (BH) in the mid-high latitudes is inactive; and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) tends to be stronger, with a location to the north of its normal position. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is stronger, which promotes vapor transport to northern China, and this leads to increased rainfall. In intermediate rainfall pattern (IRP) years, the EAJS position is close to that in normal years; the BH is inactive; the WPSH tends to be weaker, with a location to the east of its normal position; and the EASM is stronger, which is conducive to increased rainfall over the Huaihe River Basin. In Yangtze River rainfall pattern (YRP) years, the circulations are found to be almost opposite in their features to those in NCP years. In South China rainfall pattern (SCP) years, the circulations are found to be almost opposite in their features to those in IRP years. This leads to increased rainfall over South China. Therefore, the different circulation system configuration characteristics lead to the different rainfall patterns.

Wind regimes and their relation to synoptic variables using self-organizing maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berkovic, Sigalit

2018-01-01

This study exemplifies the ability of the self-organizing maps (SOM) method to directly define well known wind regimes over Israel during the entire year, except summer period, at 12:00 UTC. This procedure may be applied at other hours and is highly relevant to future automatic climatological analysis and applications. The investigation is performed by analysing surface wind measurements from 53 Israel Meteorological Service stations. The relation between the synoptic variables and the wind regimes is revealed from the averages of ECMWF ERA-INTERIM reanalysis variables for each SOM wind regime. The inspection of wind regimes and their average geopotential anomalies has shown that wind regimes relate to the gradient of the pressure anomalies, rather than to the specific isobars pattern. Two main wind regimes - strong western and the strong eastern or northern - are well known over this region. The frequencies of the regimes according to seasons is verified. Strong eastern regimes are dominant during winter, while strong western regimes are frequent in all seasons.

North Atlantic weather regimes: A synoptic study of phase space. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orrhede, Anna Karin

1990-01-01

In the phase space of weather, low frequency variability (LFV) of the atmosphere can be captured in a large scale subspace, where a trajectory connects consecutive large scale weather maps, thus revealing flow changes and recurrences. Using this approach, Vautard applied the trajectory speed minimization method (Vautard and Legras) to atmospheric data. From 37 winters of 700 mb geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic and the adjacent land masses, four persistent and recurrent weather patterns, interpreted as weather regimes, were discernable: a blocking regime, a zonal regime, a Greenland anticyclone regime, and an Atlantic regime. These regimes are studied further in terms of maintenance and transitions. A regime survey unveils preferences regarding event durations and precursors for the onset or break of an event. The transition frequencies between regimes vary, and together with the transition times, suggest the existence of easier transition routes. These matters are more systematically studied using complete synoptic map sequences from a number of events.

Midwinter Disturbances in the Middle Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Labitzke, K.

1984-01-01

The Middle Atmosphere is coupled to the troposphere during winter because planetary scale waves can propagate upwards if the prevailing winds are from the west. It is during this time of the year that the well-known midwinter disturbances are observed which ultimately affect the whole of the Middle Atmosphere. The mechanism of these disturbances is not completely understood. The large-scale circulation features up to the upper mesosphere are investigated to demonstrate the synoptic-scale behavior of the midwinter disturbances. Ground-based and satellite observations are combined. The interannual variability of the disturbances is discussed briefly. It is shown that the QBO (Quasi Biennial Oscillation) of the equatorial stratosphere appears to modulate the planetary waves during the northern winters, in the troposphere as well as in the Middle Atmosphere.

Emerging European winter precipitation pattern linked to atmospheric circulation changes over the North Atlantic region in recent decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Seo, Hyodae; Kwon, Young-Oh; Parfitt, Rhys; Brands, Swen; Joyce, Terrence M.

2017-08-01

Dominant European winter precipitation patterns over the past century, along with their associated extratropical North Atlantic circulation changes, are evaluated using cluster analysis. Contrary to the four regimes traditionally identified based on daily wintertime atmospheric circulation patterns, five distinct seasonal precipitation regimes are detected here. Recurrent precipitation patterns in each regime are linked to changes in atmospheric blocking, storm track, and sea surface temperatures across the North Atlantic region. Multidecadal variability in the frequency of the precipitation patterns reveals more (fewer) winters with wet conditions in northern (southern) Europe in recent decades and an emerging distinct pattern of enhanced wintertime precipitation over the northern British Isles. This pattern has become unusually common since the 1980s and is associated with changes in moisture transport and more frequent atmospheric river events. The observed precipitation changes post-1950 coincide with changes in storm track activity over the central/eastern North Atlantic toward the northern British Isles.

Global circulation patterns of seasonal influenza viruses vary with antigenic drift

PubMed Central

Bedford, Trevor; Riley, Steven; Barr, Ian G.; Broor, Shobha; Chadha, Mandeep; Cox, Nancy J.; Daniels, Rodney S.; Gunasekaran, C. Palani; Hurt, Aeron C.; Kelso, Anne; Lewis, Nicola S.; Li, Xiyan; McCauley, John W.; Odagiri, Takato; Potdar, Varsha; Rambaut, Andrew; Shu, Yuelong; Skepner, Eugene; Smith, Derek J.; Suchard, Marc A.; Tashiro, Masato; Wang, Dayan; Xu, Xiyan; Lemey, Philippe; Russell, Colin A.

2015-01-01

Understanding the spatio-temporal patterns of emergence and circulation of new human seasonal influenza virus variants is a key scientific and public health challenge. The global circulation patterns of influenza A/H3N2 viruses are well-characterized1-7 but the patterns of A/H1N1 and B viruses have remained largely unexplored. Here, based on analyses of 9,604 hemagglutinin sequences of human seasonal influenza viruses from 2000–2012, we show that the global circulation patterns of A/H1N1 (up to 2009), B/Victoria, and B/Yamagata viruses differ substantially from those of A/H3N2 viruses. While genetic variants of A/H3N2 viruses did not persist locally between epidemics and were reseeded from East and Southeast (E-SE) Asia, genetic variants of A/H1N1 and B viruses persisted across multiple seasons and exhibited complex global dynamics with E-SE Asia playing a limited role in disseminating new variants. The less frequent global movement of influenza A/H1N1 and B viruses coincided with slower rates of antigenic evolution, lower ages of infection, and smaller less frequent epidemics compared to A/H3N2 viruses. Detailed epidemic models support differences in age of infection, combined with the less frequent travel of children, as likely drivers of the differences in the patterns of global circulation, suggesting a complex interaction between virus evolution, epidemiology and human behavior. PMID:26053121

Global circulation patterns of seasonal influenza viruses vary with antigenic drift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedford, Trevor; Riley, Steven; Barr, Ian G.; Broor, Shobha; Chadha, Mandeep; Cox, Nancy J.; Daniels, Rodney S.; Gunasekaran, C. Palani; Hurt, Aeron C.; Kelso, Anne; Klimov, Alexander; Lewis, Nicola S.; Li, Xiyan; McCauley, John W.; Odagiri, Takato; Potdar, Varsha; Rambaut, Andrew; Shu, Yuelong; Skepner, Eugene; Smith, Derek J.; Suchard, Marc A.; Tashiro, Masato; Wang, Dayan; Xu, Xiyan; Lemey, Philippe; Russell, Colin A.

2015-07-01

Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of emergence and circulation of new human seasonal influenza virus variants is a key scientific and public health challenge. The global circulation patterns of influenza A/H3N2 viruses are well characterized, but the patterns of A/H1N1 and B viruses have remained largely unexplored. Here we show that the global circulation patterns of A/H1N1 (up to 2009), B/Victoria, and B/Yamagata viruses differ substantially from those of A/H3N2 viruses, on the basis of analyses of 9,604 haemagglutinin sequences of human seasonal influenza viruses from 2000 to 2012. Whereas genetic variants of A/H3N2 viruses did not persist locally between epidemics and were reseeded from East and Southeast Asia, genetic variants of A/H1N1 and B viruses persisted across several seasons and exhibited complex global dynamics with East and Southeast Asia playing a limited role in disseminating new variants. The less frequent global movement of influenza A/H1N1 and B viruses coincided with slower rates of antigenic evolution, lower ages of infection, and smaller, less frequent epidemics compared to A/H3N2 viruses. Detailed epidemic models support differences in age of infection, combined with the less frequent travel of children, as probable drivers of the differences in the patterns of global circulation, suggesting a complex interaction between virus evolution, epidemiology, and human behaviour.

Remote sensing of vegetation pattern and condition to monitor changes in everglades biogeochemistry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, J.W.

2011-01-01

Ground-based studies of biogeochemistry and vegetation patterning yield process understanding, but the amount of information gained by ground-based studies can be greatly enhanced by efficient, synoptic, and temporally resolute monitoring afforded by remote sensing. The variety of presently available Everglades vegetation maps reflects both the wide range of application requirements and the need to balance cost and capability. More effort needs to be applied to documenting and understanding vegetation distribution and condition as indicators of biogeochemistry and contamination. Ground-based and remote sensing studies should be modified to maximize their synergy and utility for adaptive management. Copyright ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Circulation patterns in active lava lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redmond, T. C.; Lev, E.

2014-12-01

Active lava lakes provide a unique window into magmatic conduit processes. We investigated circulation patterns of 4 active lava lakes: Kilauea's Halemaumau crater, Mount Erebus, Erta Ale and Nyiragongo, and in an artificial "lava lake" constructed at the Syracuse University Lava Lab. We employed visual and thermal video recordings collected at these volcanoes and use computer vision techniques to extract time-dependent, two-dimensional surface velocity maps. The large amount of data available from Halemaumau enabled us to identify several characteristic circulation patterns. One such pattern is a rapid acceleration followed by rapid deceleration, often to a level lower than the pre-acceleration level, and then a slow recovery. Another pattern is periodic asymmetric peaks of gradual acceleration and rapid deceleration, or vice versa, previously explained by gas pistoning. Using spectral analysis, we find that the dominant period of circulation cycles at approximately 30 minutes, 3 times longer than the dominant period identified previously for Mount Erebus. Measuring a complete surface velocity field allowed us to map and follow locations of divergence and convergence, therefore upwelling and downwelling, thus connecting the surface flow with that at depth. At Nyiragongo, the location of main upwelling shifts gradually, yet is usually at the interior of the lake, for Erebus it is usually along the perimeter yet often there is catastrophic downwelling at the interior; For Halemaumau upwelling/downwelling position is almost always on the perimeter. In addition to velocity fields, we developed an automated tool for counting crustal plates at the surface of the lava lakes, and found a correlation, and a lag time, between changes if circulation vigor and the average size of crustal plates. Circulation in the artificial basaltic lava "lake" was limited by its size and degree of foaming, yet we measured surface velocities and identify patterns. Maximum surface velocity showed symmetrical peaks of acceleration and deceleration. In summary, extended observations at lava lakes reveal patterns of circulations at different time scales, yielding insight into different processes controlling the exchange of gas and fluids between the magma chamber and conduit, and the surface and atmosphere.

Inter-Annual Variability of the Acoustic Propagation in the Mediterranean Sea Identified from a Synoptic Monthly Gridded Database as Compared with GDEM

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

VARIABILITY OF THE ACOUSTIC PROPAGATION IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA IDENTIFIED FROM A SYNOPTIC MONTHLY GRIDDED DATABASE AS COMPARED WITH GDEM by...ANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE ACOUSTIC PROPAGATION IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA IDENTIFIED FROM A SYNOPTIC MONTHLY GRIDDED DATABASE AS COMPARED WITH GDEM 5...profiles obtained from the synoptic monthly gridded World Ocean Database (SMD-WOD) and Generalized Digital Environmental Model (GDEM) temperature (T

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Streubel, Robert; Kronast, Florian; Reiche, Christopher F.

For this work, we studied curvature-driven modifications to the magnetostatic coupling of vortex circulation and polarity in soft-magnetic closely packed cap arrays. A phase diagram for the magnetic remanent/transition states at room temperature as a function of diameter and thickness was assembled. For specimens with vortex remanent state (40 nm-thick Permalloy on 330 nm spherical nanoparticles), both vortex circulation and polarity were visualized. Intercap coupling upon vortex nucleation leads to the formation of vortex circulation patterns in closely packed arrays. The remanent circulation pattern can be tailored choosing the direction of the applied magnetic field with respect to the symmetrymore » axis of the hexagonal array. An even and random distribution of vortex polarity indicates the absence of any circulation-polarity coupling.« less

Linkages between atmospheric blocking, sea ice export through Fram Strait and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

PubMed Central

Ionita, M.; Scholz, P.; Lohmann, G.; Dima, M.; Prange, M.

2016-01-01

As a key persistent component of the atmospheric dynamics, the North Atlantic blocking activity has been linked to extreme climatic phenomena in the European sector. It has also been linked to Atlantic multidecadal ocean variability, but its potential links to rapid oceanic changes have not been investigated. Using a global ocean-sea ice model forced with atmospheric reanalysis data, here it is shown that the 1962–1966 period of enhanced blocking activity over Greenland resulted in anomalous sea ice accumulation in the Arctic and ended with a sea ice flush from the Arctic into the North Atlantic Ocean through Fram Strait. This event induced a significant decrease of Labrador Sea water surface salinity and an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the 1970s. These results have implications for the prediction of rapid AMOC changes and indicate that an important part of the atmosphere-ocean dynamics at mid- and high latitudes requires a proper representation of the Fram Strait sea ice transport and of the synoptic scale variability such as atmospheric blocking, which is a challenge for current coupled climate models. PMID:27619955

Linkages between atmospheric blocking, sea ice export through Fram Strait and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

PubMed

Ionita, M; Scholz, P; Lohmann, G; Dima, M; Prange, M

2016-09-13

As a key persistent component of the atmospheric dynamics, the North Atlantic blocking activity has been linked to extreme climatic phenomena in the European sector. It has also been linked to Atlantic multidecadal ocean variability, but its potential links to rapid oceanic changes have not been investigated. Using a global ocean-sea ice model forced with atmospheric reanalysis data, here it is shown that the 1962-1966 period of enhanced blocking activity over Greenland resulted in anomalous sea ice accumulation in the Arctic and ended with a sea ice flush from the Arctic into the North Atlantic Ocean through Fram Strait. This event induced a significant decrease of Labrador Sea water surface salinity and an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the 1970s. These results have implications for the prediction of rapid AMOC changes and indicate that an important part of the atmosphere-ocean dynamics at mid- and high latitudes requires a proper representation of the Fram Strait sea ice transport and of the synoptic scale variability such as atmospheric blocking, which is a challenge for current coupled climate models.

On the Linearly-Balanced Kinetic Energy Spectrum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lu, Huei,-Iin; Robertson, F. R.

1999-01-01

It is well known that the earth's atmospheric motion can generally be characterized by the two dimensional quasi-geostrophic approximation, in which the constraints on global integrals of kinetic energy, entrophy and potential vorticity play very important roles in redistributing the wave energy among different scales of motion. Assuming the hypothesis of Kolmogrov's local isotropy, derived a -3 power law of the equilibrium two-dimensional kinetic energy spectrum that entails constant vorticity and zero energy flows from the energy-containing wave number up to the viscous cutoff. In his three dimensional quasi-geostrophic theory, showed that the spectrum function of the vertical scale turbulence - expressible in terms of the available potential energy - possesses the same power law as the two dimensional kinetic energy spectrum. As the slope of kinetic energy spectrum in the inertial range is theoretically related to the predictability of the synoptic scales (Lorenz, 1969), many general circulation models includes a horizontal diffusion to provide reasonable kinetic energy spectra, although the actual power law exhibited in the atmospheric general circulation is controversial. Note that in either the atmospheric modeling or the observational analyses, the proper choice of wave number Index to represent the turbulence scale Is the degree of the Legendre polynomial.

Variability of Equatorward Transport in the Tropical Southwestern Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alberty, M. S.; Sprintall, J.; MacKinnon, J. A.; Cravatte, S. E.; Ganachaud, A. S.; Germineaud, C.

2016-02-01

Situated in the Pacific warm pool, the Solomon Sea is a semi-enclosed sea containing a system of low latitude Western boundary currents that serve as the primary source water for the Equatorial Undercurrent. The variability of equatorward heat and volume transport through the Solomon Sea has the capability to modulate regional and basin-scale climate processes, yet there are few and synoptic observations of these fluxes. Here we present the mean and variability of heat and volume transport out of the Solomon Sea observed during the MoorSPICE experiment. MoorSPICE is the Solomon Sea mooring-based observational component of the Southwest Pacific Ocean Circulation and Climate Experiment (SPICE), an international research project working to observe and improve our understanding of the southwest Pacific Ocean circulation and climate. Arrays of moorings were deployed in the outflow channels of the Solomon Sea for July 2012 until March 2014 to resolve the temperature and velocity fields in each strait. In particular we will discuss the phasing of the observed transport variability for each channel compared to that of the satellite-observed monsoonal wind forcing and annual cycle of the mesoscale eddy field.

Climatology of atmospheric circulation patterns of Arabian dust in western Iran.

PubMed

Najafi, Mohammad Saeed; Sarraf, B S; Zarrin, A; Rasouli, A A

2017-08-28

Being in vicinity of vast deserts, the west and southwest of Iran are characterized by high levels of dust events, which have adverse consequences on human health, ecosystems, and environment. Using ground based dataset of dust events in western Iran and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the atmospheric circulation patterns of dust events in the Arabian region and west of Iran are identified. The atmospheric circulation patterns which lead to dust events in the Arabian region and western Iran were classified into two main categories: the Shamal dust events that occurs in warm period of year and the frontal dust events as cold period pattern. In frontal dust events, the western trough or blocking pattern at mid-level leads to frontogenesis, instability, and air uplift at lower levels of troposphere in the southwest of Asia. Non-frontal is other pattern of dust event in the cold period and dust generation are due to the regional circulation systems at the lower level of troposphere. In Shamal wind pattern, the Saudi Arabian anticyclone, Turkmenistan anticyclone, and Zagros thermal low play the key roles in formation of this pattern. Summer and transitional patterns are two sub-categories of summer Shamal wind pattern. In summer trough pattern, the mid-tropospheric trough leads to intensify the surface thermal systems in the Middle East and causes instability and rising of wind speed in the region. In synthetic pattern of Shamal wind and summer trough, dust is created by the impact of a trough in mid-levels of troposphere as well as existing the mentioned regional systems which are contributed in formation of summer Shamal wind pattern.

Understanding and Portraying the Global Atmospheric Circulation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harrington, John, Jr.; Oliver, John E.

2000-01-01

Examines teaching models of atmospheric circulation and resultant surface pressure patterns, focusing on the three-cell model and the meaning of meridional circulation as related to middle and high latitudes. Addresses the failure of the three-cell model to explain seasonal variations in atmospheric circulation. Suggests alternative models. (CMK)

A Synoptic- and Planetary-Scale Analysis of Widespread North American Ice Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCray, C.; Gyakum, J. R.; Atallah, E.

2017-12-01

Freezing rain can have devastating impacts, particularly when it persists for many hours. Predicting the precise temperature stratification necessary for long duration freezing rain events remains an important forecast challenge. To better elucidate the conditions responsible for the most severe events, we concentrate on surface observations of long-duration (6 or more hours) freezing rain events over North America from 1979-2016. Furthermore, we analyze cases in which multiple stations observe long-duration events simultaneously. Following these cases over successive days allows us to generate maps of freezing rain "tracks." We then categorize recurring geographic patterns to examine the meteorological conditions leading to these events. While freezing rain is most frequently observed in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada, long-duration events have affected areas as far south as the Gulf Coast. Notably, a disproportionately large number of very long duration (18 or more hours) events have occurred in the Southern Plains states relative to the climatological annual frequency of freezing rain there. Classification of individual cases shows that most of these very long duration events are associated with a recurring pattern which produces freezing rain along a southwest-northeast swath from Texas/Oklahoma into the northeastern U.S. and eastern Canada. Storms classified within this pattern include the January 1998 and December 2013 ice storms. While this pattern is the most widespread, additional spatially extensive patterns occur. One of these areas extends from the Southern Plains eastward along the Gulf Coast to Georgia and the Carolinas. A third category of events extends from the Upper Midwest into the northeastern U.S. and southeastern Canada. The expansive areal extent and long duration of these events make them especially problematic. An analysis of the planetary- to synoptic-scale settings responsible for these cases and the differences among individual storms is performed to provide forecasters with additional tools/insight towards the prediction of these damaging weather events.

Observed Spatial and Temporal Variability of Subglacial Discharge-Driven Plumes in Greenland's Outlet Glacial Fjords

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutherland, D.; Carroll, D.; Nash, J. D.; Shroyer, E.; Mickett, J.; Stearns, L. A.; Fried, M.; Bartholomaus, T.; Catania, G. A.

2015-12-01

Hydrographic and velocity observations in Greenland's outlet glacier fjords have revealed, unsurprisingly, a rich set of dynamics over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Through teasing apart the distinct processes that control circulation within these fjords, we are likely to better understand the impact of fjord circulation on modulating outlet glacier dynamics, and thus, changes in Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance. Here, we report on data from the summers of 2013-2015 in two neighboring fjords in the Uummannaq Bay region of west Greenland: Kangerlussuup Sermia (KS) and Rink Isbræ (RI). We find strong subglacial discharge driven plumes in both systems that evolve on synoptic and seasonal time scales, without the complicating presence of other circulation processes. The plumes both modify fjord water properties and respond to differences in ambient water properties, supporting the notion that a feedback exists between subglacial discharge plume circulation and water mass properties. This feedback between subglacial discharge and water properties potentially influences submarine melt rates at the glacier termini. Observed plume properties, including the vertical structure of velocity, and temperature and salinity anomalies, are compared favorably to model estimates. In KS, we find a near-surface intensified plume with high sediment content that slows and widens as it evolves downstream. In contrast, the plume in RI is entirely subsurface, ranging from 100-300 m depth at its core during summer, although it shows similar temperature, salinity, and optical backscatter signals to the KS plume. Importantly, the distinct vertical plume structures imprint on the overall water mass properties found in each fjord, raising the minimum temperatures by up to 1-2°C in the case of RI.

Ring-slope interactions and the formation of the western boundary current in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidal, VíCtor M. V.; Vidal, Francisco V.; Meza, Eustorgio; Portilla, Josué; Zambrano, Lorenzo; Jaimes, BenjamíN.

1999-09-01

Hydrographic data from the Gulf of Mexico (gulf) provide evidence that a western boundary current was set up by the interaction of an anticyclonic Loop Current (LC) ring with the continental margin of the western gulf during March-August 1985. The March 1985 geostrophic circulation reveals a remnant anticyclonic ring colliding with the slope. During this collision, two cyclonic rings were shed as the anticyclone transferred vorticity to the surrounding slope water. During July-August 1985, the ring triad weakened and evolved into a ˜900-km-long, north flowing, along-slope, western boundary current and cyclonic-anticyclonic ring pairs distributed throughout the central and western gulf. This western boundary current attained maximum northward flow speeds of 25 cm s-1 and an 8.3-Sv mass transport between 94°-96°W at 25°N. Our March-August 1985 observations reveal that the residence time and decay period of LC anticyclones in the western gulf may exceed 150 days. Within this time period the western gulf's cyclonic-anticyclonic vorticity field decayed ˜50%. Thus the western boundary current's evolutionary period, from its gestation to its absolute decay, is estimated to be of the order of 300 days. Although the presence of a western boundary current in the gulf has been attributed to the annual wind stress curl cycle [Sturges, 1993], our analyses of the western gulf March and July-August 1985 ring-driven geostrophic circulation and corresponding (January, February and May, June 1985) monthly mean synoptic wind stress curl distributions reveal that these constitute competing forcing mechanisms for the gulf's regional circulation. However, when very strong local forcing such as large eddies are present, the wind-driven background circulation is overwhelmed by such eddy forcing.

Glider and satellite high resolution monitoring of a mesoscale eddy in the Algerian basin: effects on the mixed layer depth and biochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cotroneo, Yuri; Aulicino, Giuseppe; Ruiz, Simón; Pascual, Ananda; Budillon, Giorgio; Fusco, Giannetta; Tintoré, Joaquin

2016-04-01

Despite of the extensive bibliography about the circulation of the Mediterranean Sea and its sub-basins, the debate on mesoscale dynamics and its impacts on biochemical processes is still open because of their intrinsic time scales and of the difficulties in sampling. In order to clarify some of these processes, the "Algerian BAsin Circulation Unmanned Survey - ABACUS" project was proposed and realized through access to JERICO Trans National Access (TNA) infrastructures between September and December 2014. In this framework, a deep glider cruise was carried out in the area between Balearic Islands and Algerian coasts to establish an endurance line for monitoring the basin circulation. During the mission, a mesoscale eddy, identified on satellite altimetry maps, was sampled at high-spatial horizontal resolution (4 km) along its main axes and from surface to 1000 m depth. Data were collected by a Slocum glider equipped with a pumped CTD and biochemical sensors that collected about 100 complete casts inside the eddy. In order to describe the structure of the eddy, in situ data were merged with new generation remotely sensed data as daily synoptic sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll concentration (Chl-a) images from MODIS satellites as well as sea surface height and geostrophic velocities from AVISO. From its origin along the Algerian coast in the eastern part of the basin, the eddy propagated to north-west at a mean speed of about 4 km/day with a mean diameter of 112/130 km, a mean elevation of 15.7 cm and clearly distinguished by the surrounding waters thanks to its higher SST and Chl-a values. Temperature and salinity values along the water column confirm the origin of the eddy from the AC showing the presence of recent Atlantic water in the surface layer and Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW) in the deeper layer. Eddy footprint is clearly evident in the multiparametric vertical sections conducted along its main axes. Deepening of temperature, salinity and density isolines at the center of the eddy is associated with variations in the Chl-a, oxygen concentration and turbidity pattern. In particular at 50 m depth, along the eddy borders, Chl-a values are higher (1.1-5.2 μg/l) than in correspondence of the eddy center (0.5-0.7 μg/l) with maxima values registered in the southeastern sector of the eddy. Calculation of geostrophic velocities along transects and vertical quasi geostrophic velocities (QG-w) over a regular 5 km grid from glider data, helped in describing the mechanism and functioning of the eddy. QG-w presents an asymmetric pattern, with associated relatively strong downwelling in the western part of the eddy and upwelling in the southeastern part of it. This asymmetry in the vertical velocity pattern, bringing LIW in the euphotic layer, as well as eventual advection from the northeastern sector of the eddy may justify the observed increase in Chl-a values.

EVALUATION OF GROUNDWATER FLOW PATTERNS AROUND A DUAL-SCREENED GROUNDWATER CIRCULATION WELL

EPA Science Inventory

Dual-screened groundwater circulation wells (GCWs) can be used to remove contaminant mass and to mix reagents in situ. GCWs are so named because they force water in a circular pattern between injection and extraction screens. The radial extent, flux and direction of the effective...

Synoptic-scale variability of arctic gravity wave activity during summer and potential impacts on the high latitude middle atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerrard, Andrew John

Although the role of gravity waves in the global atmospheric circulation is generally understood, discussion of synoptic gravity wave activity, especially pertaining to high latitude summer environments, is lacking in the literature. Tropospherically generated gravity waves greatly contribute to the zonal drag necessary to induce meridional outflow and subsequent upwelling observed in the adiabatically cooled summer mesosphere, ultimately resulting in an environment conducive to mesospheric cloud formation. However, the very gravity wave activity responsible for this induced cooling is also believed to be a major source of variability on mesospheric clouds over shorter time scales, and this topic should be of considerable interest if such clouds are to be used as tracers of the global climate. It is therefore the purpose of this thesis to explore high latitude synoptic gravity wave activity and ultimately seek an understanding of the associated influence on overlaying summer mesospheric clouds. Another goal is to better understand and account for potential variability in high latitude middle and upper atmospheric measurements that can be directly associated with "weather conditions" at lower altitudes. These endeavors are addressed through Rayleigh/aerosol lidar data obtained from the ARCtic LIdar TEchnology (ARCLITE) facility located at Sondrestrom, Greenland (67°N, 310°E), global tropospheric and stratospheric analyses and forecasts, and the Gravity-wave Regional Or Global RAy Tracer (GROGRAT) model. In this study we are able to show that (a) the upper stratospheric gravity wave strength and the brightness of overlaying mesospheric clouds, as measured by representative field proxies, are negatively correlated over time scales of less than a day, (b) such upper stratospheric gravity wave variability is inversely related to mesospheric cloud variability on time scales of ˜1 to 4 hours, (c) gravity wave hindcasts faithfully reproduce experimental lidar observations taken over the month of August 1996, (d) the observed upper stratospheric gravity wave activity is shown to originate from regionalized, non-orographic sources in the troposphere, (e) such gravity wave activity can propagate through the middle atmosphere, potentially impacting overlaying mesospheric clouds, and (f) the forecasting of such upper stratospheric gravity wave activity, and therefore the corresponding mesospheric cloud activity, is feasible. In conclusion, the results herein provide additional evidence of gravity wave influence on mesospheric clouds, a step towards the forecasting of regional gravity wave activity, and ultimately a better understanding of synoptic gravity wave activity at high latitudes.

Contrasting environments associated with storm prediction center tornado outbreak forecasts using synoptic-scale composite analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, Alyssa Victoria

Tornado outbreaks have significant human impact, so it is imperative forecasts of these phenomena are accurate. As a synoptic setup lays the foundation for a forecast, synoptic-scale aspects of Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outbreak forecasts of varying accuracy were assessed. The percentages of the number of tornado outbreaks within SPC 10% tornado probability polygons were calculated. False alarm events were separately considered. The outbreaks were separated into quartiles using a point-in-polygon algorithm. Statistical composite fields were created to represent the synoptic conditions of these groups and facilitate comparison. Overall, temperature advection had the greatest differences between the groups. Additionally, there were significant differences in the jet streak strengths and amounts of vertical wind shear. The events forecasted with low accuracy consisted of the weakest synoptic-scale setups. These results suggest it is possible that events with weak synoptic setups should be regarded as areas of concern by tornado outbreak forecasters.

Extratropical Weather Systems on Mars: Radiatively-Active Water Ice Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, J. L.; Kahre, M. A.; Haberle, R. M.; Urata, R. A.; Montmessin, F.

2017-01-01

Extratropical, large-scale weather disturbances, namely transient, synoptic-period,baroclinic barotropic eddies - or - low- (high-) pressure cyclones (anticyclones), are components fundamental to global circulation patterns for rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmospheres such as Earth and Mars. Such "wave-like" disturbances that arise via (geophysical) fluid shear instability develop, mature and decay, and travel west-to-east in the middle and high latitudes within terrestrial-like planetary atmospheres. These disturbances serve as critical agents in the transport of heat and momentum between low and high latitudes of the planet. Moreover, they transport trace species within the atmosphere (e.g., water vapor/ice, other aerosols (dust), chemical species, etc). Between early autumn through early spring, middle and high latitudes on Mars exhibit strong equator-to-pole mean temperature contrasts (i.e., "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that such strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems [Banfield et al., 2004; Barnes et al., 1993]. A good example of traveling weather systems, frontal wave activity and sequestered dust activity from MGS/MOC image analyses is provided in Figure 1 (cf. Wang et al. [2005]). Utilizing an upgraded and evolving version of the NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) Mars global climate model, investigated here are key dynamical and physical aspects of simulated northern hemisphere (NH) large-scale extratropica lweather systems,with and without radiatively-active water ice clouds. Mars Climate Model:

Influence of the Northeast Cold Vortex on Flooding in Northeast China in Summer 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Jing; Gao, Hui

2018-04-01

Severe flooding occurred in Northeast China (NEC) in summer 2013. Compared with the rainfall climatology of the region, the rainy season began earlier in 2013 and two main rainy periods occurred from late June to early July and from mid July to early August, respectively. During the summer season of 2013, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) was located farther westward, which strengthened the southerly winds on its west side in the lower troposphere. Under this circulation pattern, more water vapor was transported to North China and NEC. Another moisture transport pathway to NEC was traced to the cross-equatorial flow over the Bay of Bengal. In mid-high latitudes in summer 2013, the Northeast Cold Vortex (NECV) was much stronger and remained stable over NEC. Thus, the cold air flow from its northwest side frequently met with the warm and wet air from the south to form stronger moisture convergence at lower levels in the troposphere, resulting in increased precipitation over the region. Correlation analysis indicated that the NECV played a more direct role than the WPSH. Synoptic analyses of the two heaviest flood cases on 2 and 16 July confirmed this conclusion. The four wettest summers in NEC before 2000 were also analyzed and the results were consistent with the conclusion that both the WPSH and the NECV led to the intense rainfall in NEC, but the NECV had a more direct role.

Short Term Exogenic Climate Change Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krahenbuhl, Daniel

Several short term exogenic forcings affecting Earth's climate are but recently identified. Lunar nutation periodicity has implications for numerical meteorological prediction. Abrupt shifts in solar wind bulk velocity, particle density, and polarity exhibit correlation with terrestrial hemispheric vorticity changes, cyclonic strengthening and the intensification of baroclinic disturbances. Galactic Cosmic ray induced tropospheric ionization modifies cloud microphysics, and modulates the global electric circuit. This dissertation is constructed around three research questions: (1): What are the biweekly declination effects of lunar gravitation upon the troposphere? (2): How do United States severe weather reports correlate with heliospheric current sheet crossings? and (3): How does cloud cover spatially and temporally vary with galactic cosmic rays? Study 1 findings show spatial consistency concerning lunar declination extremes upon Rossby longwaves. Due to the influence of Rossby longwaves on synoptic scale circulation, our results could theoretically extend numerical meteorological forecasting. Study 2 results indicate a preference for violent tornadoes to occur prior to a HCS crossing. Violent tornadoes (EF3+) are 10% more probable to occur near, and 4% less probable immediately after a HCS crossing. The distribution of hail and damaging wind reports do not mirror this pattern. Polarity is critical for the effect. Study 3 results confirm anticorrelation between solar flux and low-level marine-layer cloud cover, but indicate substantial regional variability between cloud cover altitude and GCRs. Ultimately, this dissertation serves to extend short term meteorological forecasting, enhance climatological modeling and through analysis of severe violent weather and heliospheric events, protect property and save lives.

Meteorological Drivers of Extreme Air Pollution Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, D. E.; Schnell, J.; Callahan, C. W.; Suo, Y.

2017-12-01

The accumulation of pollutants in the near-surface atmosphere has been shown to have deleterious consequences for public health, agricultural productivity, and economic vitality. Natural and anthropogenic emissions of ozone and particulate matter can accumulate to hazardous concentrations when atmospheric conditions are favorable, and can reach extreme levels when such conditions persist. Favorable atmospheric conditions for pollutant accumulation include optimal temperatures for photochemical reaction rates, circulation patterns conducive to pollutant advection, and a lack of ventilation, dispersion, and scavenging in the local environment. Given our changing climate system and the dual ingredients of poor air quality - pollutants and the atmospheric conditions favorable to their accumulation - it is important to characterize recent changes in favorable meteorological conditions, and quantify their potential contribution to recent extreme air pollution events. To facilitate our characterization, this study employs the recently updated Schnell et al (2015) 1°×1° gridded observed surface ozone and particulate matter datasets for the period of 1998 to 2015, in conjunction with reanalysis and climate model simulation data. We identify extreme air pollution episodes in the observational record and assess the meteorological factors of primary support at local and synoptic scales. We then assess (i) the contribution of observed meteorological trends (if extant) to the magnitude of the event, (ii) the return interval of the meteorological event in the observational record, simulated historical climate, and simulated pre-industrial climate, as well as (iii) the probability of the observed meteorological trend in historical and pre-industrial climates.

Impacts of Aerosol Direct Effects on the South Asian Climate: Assessment of Radiative Feedback Processes Using Model Simulations and Satellite/Surface Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Sheng-Hsiang; Gautam, Ritesh; Lau, William K. M.; Tsay, Si-Chee; Sun, Wen-Yih; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Chern, Jiun-Dar; Hsu, Christina; Lin, Neng-Huei

2011-01-01

Current assessment of aerosol radiative effect is hindered by our incomplete knowledge of aerosol optical properties, especially absorption, and our current inability to quantify physical and microphysical processes. In this research, we investigate direct aerosol radiative effect over heavy aerosol loading areas (e.g., Indo-Gangetic Plains, South/East Asia) and its feedbacks on the South Asian climate during the pre-monsoon season (March-June) using the Purdue Regional Climate Model (PRCM) with prescribed aerosol data derived by the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5). Our modeling domain covers South and East Asia (60-140E and 0-50N) with spatial resolutions of 45 km in horizontal and 28 layers in vertical. The model is integrated from 15 February to 30 June 2008 continuously without nudging (i.e., only forced by initial/boundary conditions). Two numerical experiments are conducted with and without the aerosol-radiation effects. Both simulations are successful in reproducing the synoptic patterns on seasonal-to-interannual time scales and capturing a pre-monsoon feature of the northward rainfall propagation over Indian region in early June which shown in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observation. Preliminary result suggests aerosol-radiation interactions mainly alter surface-atmosphere energetics and further result in an adjustment of the vertical temperature distribution in lower atmosphere (below 700 hPa). The modifications of temperature and associated rainfall and circulation feedbacks on the regional climate will be discussed in the presentation.

Temporal and spatial variations in sand and dust storm events in East Asia from 2007 to 2016: Relationships with surface conditions and climate change.

PubMed

An, Linchang; Che, Huizheng; Xue, Min; Zhang, Tianhang; Wang, Hong; Wang, Yaqiang; Zhou, Chunhong; Zhao, Hujia; Gui, Ke; Zheng, Yu; Sun, Tianze; Liang, Yuanxin; Sun, Enwei; Zhang, Hengde; Zhang, Xiaoye

2018-08-15

We analyzed the frequency and intensity of sand and dust storms (SDSs) in East Asia from 2007 to 2016 using observational data from ground stations, numerical modeling, and vegetation indices obtained from both satellite and reanalysis data. The relationships of SDSs with surface conditions and the synoptic circulation pattern were also analyzed. The statistical analyses demonstrated that the number and intensity of SDS events recorded in spring during 2007 to 2016 showed a decreasing trend. The total number of spring SDSs decreased from at least ten events per year before 2011 to less than ten events per year after 2011. The overall average annual variation of the surface dust concentration in the main dust source regions decreased 33.24μg/m 3 (-1.75%) annually. The variation in the temperatures near and below the ground surface and the amount of precipitation and soil moisture all favored an improvement in vegetation coverage, which reduced the intensity and frequency of SDSs. The strong winds accompanying the influx of cold air from high latitudes showed a decreasing trend, leading to a decrease in the number of SDSs and playing a key role in the decadal decrease of SDSs. The decrease in the intensity of the polar vortex during study period was closely related to the decrease in the intensity and frequency of SDSs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Responses of the Tropical Atmospheric Circulation to Climate Change and Connection to the Hydrological Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jian; Chadwick, Robin; Seo, Kyong-Hwan; Dong, Changming; Huang, Gang; Foltz, Gregory R.; Jiang, Jonathan H.

2018-05-01

This review describes the climate change–induced responses of the tropical atmospheric circulation and their impacts on the hydrological cycle. We depict the theoretically predicted changes and diagnose physical mechanisms for observational and model-projected trends in large-scale and regional climate. The tropical circulation slows down with moisture and stratification changes, connecting to a poleward expansion of the Hadley cells and a shift of the intertropical convergence zone. Redistributions of regional precipitation consist of thermodynamic and dynamical components, including a strong offset between moisture increase and circulation weakening throughout the tropics. This allows other dynamical processes to dominate local circulation changes, such as a surface warming pattern effect over oceans and multiple mechanisms over land. To improve reliability in climate projections, more fundamental understandings of pattern formation, circulation change, and the balance of various processes redistributing land rainfall are suggested to be important.

Precipitation Dynamical Downscaling Over the Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Xiao-Ming; Xue, Ming; McPherson, Renee A.; Martin, Elinor; Rosendahl, Derek H.; Qiao, Lei

2018-02-01

Detailed, regional climate projections, particularly for precipitation, are critical for many applications. Accurate precipitation downscaling in the United States Great Plains remains a great challenge for most Regional Climate Models, particularly for warm months. Most previous dynamic downscaling simulations significantly underestimate warm-season precipitation in the region. This study aims to achieve a better precipitation downscaling in the Great Plains with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. To this end, WRF simulations with different physics schemes and nudging strategies are first conducted for a representative warm season. Results show that different cumulus schemes lead to more pronounced difference in simulated precipitation than other tested physics schemes. Simply choosing different physics schemes is not enough to alleviate the dry bias over the southern Great Plains, which is related to an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the central and western parts of continental U.S. in the simulations. Spectral nudging emerges as an effective solution for alleviating the precipitation bias. Spectral nudging ensures that large and synoptic-scale circulations are faithfully reproduced while still allowing WRF to develop small-scale dynamics, thus effectively suppressing the large-scale circulation anomaly in the downscaling. As a result, a better precipitation downscaling is achieved. With the carefully validated configurations, WRF downscaling is conducted for 1980-2015. The downscaling captures well the spatial distribution of monthly climatology precipitation and the monthly/yearly variability, showing improvement over at least two previously published precipitation downscaling studies. With the improved precipitation downscaling, a better hydrological simulation over the trans-state Oologah watershed is also achieved.

Arctic Climate and Atmospheric Planetary Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cavalieri, D. J.; Haekkinen, S.

2000-01-01

Analysis of a fifty-year record (1946-1995) of monthly-averaged sea level pressure data provides a link between the phases of planetary-scale sea level pressure waves and Arctic Ocean and ice variability. Results of this analysis show: (1) a breakdown of the dominant wave I pattern in the late 1960's, (2) shifts in the mean phase of waves 1 and 2 since this breakdown, (3) an eastward shift in the phases of both waves 1 and 2 during the years of simulated cyclonic Arctic Ocean circulation relative to their phases during the years of anticyclonic circulation, (4) a strong decadal variability of wave phase associated with simulated Arctic Ocean circulation changes. Finally, the Arctic atmospheric circulation patterns that emerge when waves 1 and 2 are in their extreme eastern and western positions suggest an alternative approach to determine significant forcing patterns of sea ice and high-latitude variability.

The covariance of air quality conditions in six cities in Southern Germany - The role of meteorology.

PubMed

Dimitriou, Konstantinos; Kassomenos, Pavlos

2017-01-01

This paper analyzed air quality in six cities in Southern Germany (Ulm, Augsburg, Konstanz, Freiburg, Stuttgart and Munich), in conjunction with the prevailing synoptic conditions. Air quality was estimated through the calculation of a daily Air Stress Index (ASI) constituted by five independent components, each one expressing the contribution of one of the five main pollutants (PM 10 , O 3 , SO 2 , NO 2 and CO) to the total air stress. As it was deduced from ASI components, PM 10 from combustion sources and photochemically produced tropospheric O 3 are the most hazardous pollutants at the studied sites, throughout cold and warm periods respectively, yet PM 10 contribute substantially to the overall air stress during both seasons. The influence of anticyclonic high pressure systems, leading to atmospheric stagnation, was associated with increased ASI values, mainly due to the entrapment of PM 10 . Moderate air stress was generally estimated in all cities however a cleaner atmosphere was detected principally in Freiburg when North Europe was dominated by low pressure systems. Daily events of notably escalated ASI values were further analyzed with backward air mass trajectories. Throughout cold period, ASI episodes were commonly related to eastern airflows carrying exogenous PM 10 originated from eastern continental Europe. During warm period, ASI episodes were connected to the arrival of regionally circulated air parcels reflecting lack of dispersion and accumulation of pollutants in accordance with the synoptic analysis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Extracting quasi-steady Lagrangian transport patterns from the ocean circulation: An application to the Gulf of Mexico.

PubMed

Duran, R; Beron-Vera, F J; Olascoaga, M J

2018-03-26

We construct a climatology of Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs)-the concealed skeleton that shapes transport-with a twelve-year-long data-assimilative simulation of the sea-surface circulation in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). Computed as time-mean Cauchy-Green strain tensorlines of the climatological velocity, the climatological LCSs (cLCSs) unveil recurrent Lagrangian circulation patterns. The cLCSs strongly constrain the ensemble-mean Lagrangian circulation of the instantaneous model velocity, showing that a climatological velocity can preserve meaningful transport information. The quasi-steady transport patterns revealed by the cLCSs agree well with aspects of the GoM circulation described in several previous observational and numerical studies. For example, the cLCSs identify regions of persistent isolation, and suggest that coastal regions previously identified as high-risk for pollution impact are regions of maximal attraction. We also show that cLCSs are remarkably accurate at identifying transport patterns observed during the Deepwater Horizon and Ixtoc oil spills, and during the Grand LAgrangian Deployment (GLAD) experiment. Thus it is shown that computing cLCSs is an efficient and meaningful way of synthesizing vast amounts of Lagrangian information. The cLCS method confirms previous GoM studies, and contributes to our understanding by revealing the persistent nature of the dynamics and kinematics treated therein.

Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability. Chapter 5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perlwitz, J.; Knutson, T.; Kossin, J. P.; LeGrande, A. N.

2017-01-01

The causes of regional climate trends cannot be understood without considering the impact of variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation and an assessment of the role of internally generated climate variability. There are contributions to regional climate trends from changes in large-scale latitudinal circulation, which is generally organized into three cells in each hemisphere-Hadley cell, Ferrell cell and Polar cell-and which determines the location of subtropical dry zones and midlatitude jet streams. These circulation cells are expected to shift poleward during warmer periods, which could result in poleward shifts in precipitation patterns, affecting natural ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources. In addition, regional climate can be strongly affected by non-local responses to recurring patterns (or modes) of variability of the atmospheric circulation or the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. These modes of variability represent preferred spatial patterns and their temporal variation. They account for gross features in variance and for teleconnections which describe climate links between geographically separated regions. Modes of variability are often described as a product of a spatial climate pattern and an associated climate index time series that are identified based on statistical methods like Principal Component Analysis (PC analysis), which is also called Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis (EOF analysis), and cluster analysis.

Geochemical Data for Upper Mineral Creek, Colorado, Under Existing Ambient Conditions and During an Experimental pH Modification, August 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runkel, Robert L.; Kimball, Briant A.; Steiger, Judy I.; Walton-Day, Katherine

2009-01-01

Mineral Creek, an acid mine drainage stream in south-western Colorado, was the subject of a water-quality study that employed a paired synoptic approach. Under the paired synoptic approach, two synoptic sampling campaigns were conducted on the same study reach. The initial synoptic campaign, conducted August 22, 2005, documented stream-water quality under existing ambient conditions. A second synoptic campaign, conducted August 24, 2005, documented stream-water quality during a pH-modification experiment that elevated the pH of Mineral Creek. The experimental pH modification was designed to determine the potential reductions in dissolved constituent concentrations that would result from the implementation of an active treatment system for acid mine drainage. During both synoptic sampling campaigns, a solution containing lithium bromide was injected continuously to allow for the calculation of streamflow using the tracer-dilution method. Synoptic water-quality samples were collected from 30 stream sites and 11 inflow locations along the 2-kilometer study reach. Data from the study provide spatial profiles of pH, concentration, and streamflow under both existing and experimentally-altered conditions. This report presents the data obtained August 21-24, 2005, as well as the methods used for sample collection and data analysis.

Seasonal circulation patterns of the Yellow and East China Seas derived from satellite-tracked drifter trajectories and hydrographic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lie, Heung-Jae; Cho, Cheol-Ho

2016-08-01

We investigated seasonal circulation patterns of the Yellow and East China Seas (YECS), by reviewing previous works on the circulation and its dominant currents, and taking into account newly-compiled trajectories of satellite-tracked drifters collected between the 1980s and 2000s. The circulation patterns suggested before the 1990s can be categorized into two groups, depending on the identified origin of the Tsushima Warm Current in the Korea-Tsushima Straits: (i) branching from the Kuroshio southwest of Kyushu, or (ii) northeastward continuation of the Taiwan Strait throughflow. The branching of the Kuroshio southwest of Kyushu and northeast of Taiwan was clearly evidenced by current measurements and concurrent hydrographic surveys. However, there is still no clear evidence for the northeastward pathway of Taiwan Strait throughflow across the mid-shelf area of the East China Sea. Target-oriented surveys in the 1990s and 2000s employing advanced instruments, such as drifter tracking and acoustic Doppler current profiler measurements, now provide decisive proof of the clockwise rounding of the Cheju Warm Current around Jeju-do throughout the year, of the northeastward extension of Changjiang discharge in summer, and of the presence of the Yellow Sea Warm Current only in winter. Thus, both coastal currents in shallow water and secondary branch currents of the Kuroshio (such as the Yellow Sea Warm Current) are found to significantly change from winter to summer. To better present the basic pattern of YECS circulation and its seasonality, we have constructed seasonal circulations patterns, based on review results, on the newly-compiled drifter trajectories, and on hydrographic observations. Further investigations should be carried out in future, with support of comprehensive current measurements on shelf areas and through elaborate numerical modeling.

Visitor circulation and nonhuman animal welfare: an overlooked variable?

PubMed

Davey, Gareth; Henzi, Peter

2004-01-01

This article investigates visitor circulation and behaviors within a gallery of primate exhibits in relation to their possible implications for nonhuman animal welfare. When entering a primate house, the majority of visitors (84%) turned right, a pattern upheld throughout all times of the day. These findings demonstrate the existence of the "right-turn" principle, a concept previously identified and investigated in the museum setting. The existence of this circulation pattern in zoos has important implications for the practical management of animal welfare issues because unbalanced or large numbers of visitors at specific enclosures could present a stressful influence. The "direction bias" could not be attributed to demographic or behavioral traits, therefore suggesting that the principle, like similar findings from museum research, generalizes across visitor populations and, therefore, zoos. A visitor sample at another exhibit (located outside the exhibit gallery) did not display a direction bias, suggesting that the marked circulation pattern may be specific to exhibit galleries. The article discusses the significance and consequences of visitor circulation with respect to visitor management and animal welfare.

40 CFR 230.23 - Current patterns and water circulation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Current patterns and water circulation. 230.23 Section 230.23 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) OCEAN DUMPING SECTION 404(b)(1) GUIDELINES FOR SPECIFICATION OF DISPOSAL SITES FOR DREDGED OR FILL MATERIAL Potential Impacts on Physical and Chemical...

40 CFR 230.23 - Current patterns and water circulation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 24 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Current patterns and water circulation. 230.23 Section 230.23 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) OCEAN DUMPING SECTION 404(b)(1) GUIDELINES FOR SPECIFICATION OF DISPOSAL SITES FOR DREDGED OR FILL MATERIAL Potential Impacts on Physical and Chemical...

The role and production of polar/subtropical jet superpositions in two high-impact weather events over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winters, Andrew C.

Careful observational work has demonstrated that the tropopause is typically characterized by a three-step pole-to-equator structure, with each break between steps in the tropopause height associated with a jet stream. While the two jet streams, the polar and subtropical jets, typically occupy different latitude bands, their separation can occasionally vanish, resulting in a vertical superposition of the two jets. A cursory examination of a number of historical and recent high-impact weather events over North America and the North Atlantic indicates that superposed jets can be an important component of their evolution. Consequently, this dissertation examines two recent jet superposition cases, the 18--20 December 2009 Mid-Atlantic Blizzard and the 1--3 May 2010 Nashville Flood, in an effort (1) to determine the specific influence that a superposed jet can have on the development of a high-impact weather event and (2) to illuminate the processes that facilitated the production of a superposition in each case. An examination of these cases from a basic-state variable and PV inversion perspective demonstrates that elements of both the remote and local synoptic environment are important to consider while diagnosing the development of a jet superposition. Specifically, the process of jet superposition begins with the remote production of a cyclonic (anticyclonic) tropopause disturbance at high (low) latitudes. The cyclonic circulation typically originates at polar latitudes, while organized tropical convection can encourage the development of an anticyclonic circulation anomaly within the tropical upper-troposphere. The concurrent advection of both anomalies towards middle latitudes subsequently allows their individual circulations to laterally displace the location of the individual tropopause breaks. Once the two circulation anomalies position the polar and subtropical tropopause breaks in close proximity to one another, elements within the local environment, such as proximate convection or transverse vertical circulations, can work to further deform the tropopause and to aid in the production of the two-step tropopause structure characteristic of a superposed jet. The analysis also demonstrates that the intensified transverse vertical circulation that accompanies a superposed jet serves as the primary mechanism through which it can influence the evolution of a high-impact weather event.

The Pattern and Dynamics of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Upper Ocean

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-01

Atlantic . Figure 4a shows that the center of meridional overturning circulation occurs at a level of about one kilometer. Circulation is weak at...maintenance of the meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. 5. Global Simulation The most exciting experiment would be to fully model the...mechanisms responsible for the strength and maintenance of the meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean are not

Relative contributions of synoptic and intraseasonal variations to strong cold events over eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Lei; Wu, Renguang; Jiao, Yang

2018-06-01

The present study investigates the relative roles of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) and synoptic variations in strong cold events over eastern China during the boreal winter. The ISOs and synoptic variations explain about 55% and 20% of the total area-mean temperature anomaly in eastern China, respectively. The advection of synoptic winds on synoptic temperature gradients has a leading contribution to the temperature decrease before the cold events and thus the synoptic variations are important in determining the time of peak cold anomalies. The ISOs have a larger role in sustaining the cold events. The height anomalies associated with ISOs and synoptic variations are manifested as Rossby wave trains propagating along the polar front jet over the Eurasian continent before the cold events. They both contribute to the deepening of the East Asian trough and the development of cold events. Compared to the ISO wave train, the synoptic wave train has a smaller spatial scale and moves faster. There are obvious intraseasonal signals in the stratosphere about 1 week before the cold events over eastern China. Large negative height anomalies associated with the weakening of the polar vortex are observed over the North Atlantic. These anomalies move eastwards and propagate downwards after reaching the west coast of Europe. The downward moving stratospheric signal triggers height anomalies in the troposphere over the entrance region of the polar front jet. Then the anomalies propagate towards East Asia along the wave train, contributing to the intensification of the Siberian high and the East Asian trough and the occurrence of cold events over eastern China.

Some remarks on using circulation classifications to evaluate circulation model and atmospheric reanalysis data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stryhal, Jan; Huth, Radan

2017-04-01

Automated classifications of atmospheric circulation patterns represent a tool widely used for studying the circulation in both the real atmosphere, represented by atmospheric reanalyses, and in circulation model outputs. It is well known that the results of studies utilizing one of these methods are influenced by several subjective choices, of which one of the most crucial is the selection of the method itself. Authors of the present study used eight methods from the COST733 classification software (Grosswettertypes, two variants of Jenkinson-Collison, Lund, T-mode PCA with oblique rotation of principal components, k-medoids, k-means with differing starting partitions, and SANDRA) to assess the winter 1961-2000 daily sea level pressure patterns in five reanalysis datasets (ERA-40, NCEP-1, JRA-55, 20CRv2, and ERA-20C), as well as in the historical runs and 21st century projections of an ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs. The classification methods were quite consistent in displaying the strongest biases in GCM simulations. However, the results also showed that multiple classifications are required to quantify the biases in certain types of circulation (e.g., zonal circulation or blocking-like patterns). There was no sign that any method should have a tendency to over- or underestimate the biases in circulation type frequency. The bias found by a particular method for a particular domain clearly reflects the ability of the algorithm to detect groups of similar patterns within the data space, and whether these groups do or do not differ one dataset to another is to a large extend coincidental. There were, nevertheless, systematic differences between groups of methods that use some form of correlation to classify the patterns to circulation types (CTs) and those which use the Euclidean distance. The comparison of reanalyses, which was conducted over eight European domains, showed that there is even a weak negative correlation between the average differences of CT frequency found by cluster analysis methods on one hand, and the remaining methods on the other. This suggests that groups of different methods capture different kinds of errors and that averaging the results obtained by an ensemble of methods very likely leads to an underestimation of the errors actually present in the data.

(abstract) TOPEX/Poseidon: Four Years of Synoptic Oceanography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, Lee-Lueng

1996-01-01

Exceeding all expectations of measurement precision and accuracy, the US/France TOPEX/Poseidon satellite mission is now in its 5th year. Returning more than 98 percent of the altimetric data, the measured global geocentric height of the sea surface has provided unprecedented opportunities to address a host of scientific problems ranging from the dynamics of ocean circulation to the distribution of internal tidal energy. Scientific highlights of this longest-running altimetric satellite mission include improvements in our understanding of the dynamics and thermodynamics of the large-scale ocean variability, such as, the properties of planetary waves; the energetics of basin-wide gyres; the heat budget of the ocean; and the ocean's response to wind forcing. For the first time, oceanographers have quantitative descriptions of a dynamic variable of the physical state of the global oceans available in near-real-time.

Energy transformations associated with the synoptic and planetary scales during the evolution of a blocking anticyclone and an upstream explosively-developing cyclone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Phillip J.; Tsou, Chih-Hua

1992-01-01

The eddy kinetic energy (KE), release of eddy potential energy, generation of eddy kinetic energy, and exchange between eddy and zonal kinetic energy are investigated for a blocking anticyclone over the North Atlantic Ocean and an extratropical cyclone that developed during January 17-21, 1979. The results indicate that KE was maintained by baroclinic conversion of potential to kinetic. As released potential energy was being used to generate KE, a portion of the KE was barotropically converted to zonal KE. These transformations were dominated by the synoptic-scale component. While changes in the mass field depended not only on the synoptic scale but also on the interactions between the synoptic and planetary scales, the corresponding changes in the eddy motion fields responded largely to synoptic-scale processes.

Geological and hydrogeological investigation in West Malaysia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahmad, J. B. (Principal Investigator)

1976-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The broad synoptic view of the images allowed easy identification of circular features and major fault traces in low lying areas. Sedimentary units were delineated in accordance with the prevailing rock types and where applicable the folding characteristics. Igneous units could easily be differentiated by tone, degree of fracturing, texture, and drainage pattern. The larger fold structures, anticlinoriums and synclinoriums, of the younger sediments on the eastern edge of the central belt could also be easily delineated.

An Evaluation of Marine Fog Forecast Concepts and a Preliminary Design for a Marine Obscuration Forecast System.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-06-01

the upwelling zone, low-level subsidence such as found in the semi-permanent subtropical high, and coastal mountain ranges. In order for marine fog...patterns, or in downslope flow off coastal mountain ranges. Descriptions of linkages between fog types and characteristics and synoptic and mesoscale...quadrant)in t0e layer between 500- 1500 m. Since the orientation of the mountain ranges along the coast is approximately north to south this

Forecasters Handbook for Japan and Adjacent Sea Areas

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-06-01

a strengthening Siberian high pressure cell. 4.5.1.1 Synoptic Patterns Summer is a season of reduced extratropical storm activity over the East China...the waters adjacent to eastern Asia, summer is a period of reduced extratropical storm activity over the Yellow Sea. Figure 2-6 (page 2-23) depicts...since the southeastern part of the sea is 6-15 closer to the extratropical storm tracks discussed in section 6.3.1.1 above. 6.3.1.3 Upper Level Winds

Antecedent Synoptic Environments Conducive to North American Polar/Subtropical Jet Superpositions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winters, A. C.; Keyser, D.; Bosart, L. F.

2017-12-01

The atmosphere often exhibits a three-step pole-to-equator tropopause structure, with each break in the tropopause associated with a jet stream. The polar jet stream (PJ) typically resides in the break between the polar and subtropical tropopause and is positioned atop the strongly baroclinic, tropospheric-deep polar front around 50°N. The subtropical jet stream (STJ) resides in the break between the subtropical and the tropical tropopause and is situated on the poleward edge of the Hadley cell around 30°N. On occasion, the latitudinal separation between the PJ and the STJ can vanish, resulting in a vertical jet superposition. Prior case study work indicates that jet superpositions are often attended by a vigorous transverse vertical circulation that can directly impact the production of extreme weather over North America. Furthermore, this work suggests that there is considerable variability among antecedent environments conducive to the production of jet superpositions. These considerations motivate a comprehensive study to examine the synoptic-dynamic mechanisms that operate within the double-jet environment to produce North American jet superpositions. This study focuses on the identification of North American jet superposition events in the CFSR dataset during November-March 1979-2010. Superposition events will be classified into three characteristic types: "Polar Dominant" events will consist of events during which only the PJ is characterized by a substantial excursion from its climatological latitude band; "Subtropical Dominant" events will consist of events during which only the STJ is characterized by a substantial excursion from its climatological latitude band; and "Hybrid" events will consist of those events characterized by an excursion of both the PJ and STJ from their climatological latitude bands. Following their classification, frequency distributions of jet superpositions will be constructed to highlight the geographical locations most often associated with jet superpositions for each event type. PV inversion and composite analysis will also be performed on each event type in an effort to illustrate the antecedent environments and the dominant synoptic-dynamic mechanisms that favor the production of North American jet superpositions for each event type.

Ways of Viewing Pictorial Plasticity

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The plastic effect is historically used to denote various forms of stereopsis. The vivid impression of depth often associated with binocular stereopsis can also be achieved in other ways, for example, using a synopter. Accounts of this go back over a hundred years. These ways of viewing all aim to diminish sensorial evidence that the picture is physically flat. Although various viewing modes have been proposed in the literature, their effects have never been compared. In the current study, we compared three viewing modes: monocular blur, synoptic viewing, and free viewing (using a placebo synopter). By designing a physical embodiment that was indistinguishable for the three experimental conditions, we kept observers naïve with respect to the differences between them; 197 observers participated in an experiment where the three viewing modes were compared by performing a rating task. Results indicate that synoptic viewing causes the largest plastic effect. Monocular blur scores lower than synoptic viewing but is still rated significantly higher than the baseline conditions. The results strengthen the idea that synoptic viewing is not due to a placebo effect. Furthermore, monocular blur has been verified for the first time as a way of experiencing the plastic effect, although the effect is smaller than synoptic viewing. We discuss the results with respect to the theoretical basis for the plastic effect. We show that current theories are not described with sufficient details to explain the differences we found. PMID:28491270

Development of a synoptic MRI report for primary rectal cancer.

PubMed

Spiegle, Gillian; Leon-Carlyle, Marisa; Schmocker, Selina; Fruitman, Mark; Milot, Laurent; Gagliardi, Anna R; Smith, Andy J; McLeod, Robin S; Kennedy, Erin D

2009-12-02

Although magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is an important imaging modality for pre-operative staging and surgical planning of rectal cancer, to date there has been little investigation on the completeness and overall quality of MRI reports. This is important because optimal patient care depends on the quality of the MRI report and clear communication of these reports to treating physicians. Previous work has shown that the use of synoptic pathology reports improves the quality of pathology reports and communication between physicians. The aims of this project are to develop a synoptic MRI report for rectal cancer and determine the enablers and barriers toward the implementation of a synoptic MRI report for rectal cancer in the clinical setting. A three-step Delphi process with an expert panel will extract the key criteria for the MRI report to guide pre-operative chemoradiation and surgical planning following a review of the literature, and a synoptic template will be developed. Furthermore, standardized qualitative research methods will be used to conduct interviews with radiologists to determine the enablers and barriers to the implementation and sustainability of the synoptic MRI report in the clinic setting. Synoptic MRI reports for rectal cancer are currently not used in North America and may improve the overall quality of MRI report and communication between physicians. This may, in turn, lead to improved patient care and outcomes for rectal cancer patients.

Atmospheric rivers causing high accumulation storms in East Antarctica: regional climate model evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazzara, M. A.; Tsukernik, M.; Gorodetskaya, I.

2016-12-01

Recent studies confirmed that atmospheric rivers (ARs) reach the continent of Antarctica and thus influence the Antarctic accumulation patterns and the ice sheet mass balance (Gorodetskaya et al. 2014, GRL). Similar to mid-latitude ARs, Antarctic ARs are associated with a blocking pattern downstream of a cyclone, which allows channeling of moisture toward the continent. However, due to the extremely cold atmosphere, Antarctic ARs possess some unique features. First, the existence of an AR in high latitudes is always associated with warm advection. Second, in order for an AR to penetrate the continent, it needs to overcome strong low-level outflow winds - katabatic winds - coming from the interior of the continent. Thirdly, sea ice surrounding the Antarctic ice sheet introduces an additional "cold barrier" decreasing the tropospheric moisture holding capacity and promoting precipitation before reaching the ice sheet. We believe these factors contribute to the scarcity of AR events influencing the ice sheet surface mass balance. Nevertheless, their presence is clearly seen in the long-term record. In particular, anomalous accumulation in 2009 and 2011 in Dronning Maud Land in East Antarctica has been linked to atmospheric rivers. We performed a detailed investigation of several AR storm events from 2009 and 2011 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations. These simulations depicted the synoptic scale development of storms that led to an anomalous precipitation pattern in the East Antarctic. We investigated the role of the upper level vs. lower level forcing in the formation of the contributing storms. The moisture and temperature anomalies of each case are evaluated in the context of synoptic and large-scale atmospheric forcing. We also performed sensitivity studies to determine the role of sea ice in the development of these systems.

Forecast skill of synoptic conditions associated with Santa Ana winds in Southern California

Treesearch

Charles Jones; Francis Fujioka; Leila M.V. Carvalho

2010-01-01

Santa Ana winds (SAW) are synoptically driven mesoscale winds observed in Southern California usually during late fall and winter. Because of the complex topography of the region, SAW episodes can sometimes be extremely intense and pose significant environmental hazards, especially during wildfire incidents. A simple set of criteria was used to identify synoptic-scale...

Magnetic Flux Circulation During Dawn-Dusk Oriented Interplanetary Magnetic Field

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitchell, E. J.; Lopez, R. E.; Fok, M.-C.; Deng, Y.; Wiltberger, M.; Lyon, J.

2010-01-01

Magnetic flux circulation is a primary mode of energy transfer from the solar wind into the ionosphere and inner magnetosphere. For southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), magnetic flux circulation is described by the Dungey cycle (dayside merging, night side reconnection, and magnetospheric convection), and both the ionosphere and inner magnetosphere receive energy. For dawn-dusk oriented IMF, magnetic flux circulation is not well understood, and the inner magnetosphere does not receive energy. Several models have been suggested for possible reconnection patterns; the general pattern is: dayside merging; reconnection on the dayside or along the dawn/dusk regions; and, return flow on dayside only. These models are consistent with the lack of energy in the inner magnetosphere. We will present evidence that the Dungey cycle does not explain the energy transfer during dawn-dusk oriented IMF. We will also present evidence of how magnetic flux does circulate during dawn-dusk oriented IMF, specifically how the magnetic flux reconnects and circulates back.

A Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model with multi-cellular meridional circulation in advection- and diffusion-dominated regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belucz, B.; Dikpati, M.; Forgacs-Dajka, E.

2014-12-01

Babcock-Leighton type solar dynamo models with single cell meridional circulation are successful in reproducing many solarcycle features, and recently such a model was applied for solarcycle 24 amplitude prediction. It seems that cycle 24 amplitudeforecast may not be validated. One of the reasons is the assumption of a single cell meridional circulation. Recent observations andtheoretical models of meridional circulation do not indicate a single-celledflow pattern. So it is nessecary to examine the role of complexmulti-cellular circulation patterns in a Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model in the advection and diffusion dominated regimes.By simulating a Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model with multi-cellularflow, we show that the presence of a weak, second, high-latitudereverse cell speeds up the cycle and slighty enhances the poleward branch in the butterfly diagram, whereas the presence of a second cellin depth reverses the tilt of the butterfly wing and leads to ananti-solar type feature. If, instead, the butterfly diagram isconstructed from the middle of the convection zone in that case, a solar-like pattern can be retrieved. All the above cases behavequalitatively similar in advection and diffusion-dominated regimes.However, our dynamo with a meridional circulation containing fourcells in latitude behaves distinctly different in the two regimes, producing a solar-like butterfly diagram with fast cycles indiffusion-dominated regime, and a complex branches in the butterflydiagram in the advection-dominated regime. Another interestingfinding from our studies is that a four-celled flow pattern containing two in radius and two in latitude always producesquadrupolar parity as the relaxed solution.

A review of circulation and mixing studies of San Francisco Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Lawrence H.

1987-01-01

A description of the major characteristics and remaining unknowns of circulation and mixing in San Francisco Bay has been constructed from a review of published studies. From a broad perspective San Francisco Bay is an ocean-river mixing zone with a seaward flow equal to the sum of the river inflows less evaporation. Understanding of circulation and mixing within the bay requires quantification of freshwater inflows and ocean-bay exchanges, characterization of source-water variations, and separation of the within-bay components of circulation and mixing processes. Description of net circulation and mixing over a few days to a few months illustrates best the interactions of major components. Quantification of tidal circulation and mixing is also necessary because net circulation and mixing contain a large tide-induced component, and because tidal variations are dominant in measurements of stage, currents, and salinity. The discharge of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta into Suisun Bay is approximately 90 percent of the freshwater inflow to San Francisco Bay. Annual delta discharge is characterized by a winter season of high runoff and a summer season of low runoff. For the period 1956 to 1985 the mean of monthly discharges exceeded 1,000 cubic meters per second (35,000 cubic feet per second) for the months of December through April, whereas for July through October, it was less than 400 cubic meters per second (14,000 cubic feet per second). The months of November, May, and June commonly were transition months between these seasons. Large year-to-year deviations from this annual pattern have occurred frequently. Much less is known about the ocean-bay exchange process. Net exchanges depend on net seaward flow in the bay, tidal amplitude, and longshore coastal currents, but exchanges have not yet been measured successfully. Source-water variations are ignored by limiting discussion of mixing to salinity. The bay is composed of a northern reach, which is strongly influenced by delta discharge, and South Bay, a tributary estuary which responds to conditions in Central Bay. In the northern reach net circulation is characterized by the river-induced seaward, flow and a resulting gravitational circulation in the channels, and by a tide- and wind-induced net horizontal circulation. A surface layer of relatively fresh water in Central Bay generated by high delta discharges can induce gravitational circulation in South Bay. During low delta discharges South Bay has nearly the same salinity as Central Bay and is characterized by tide- and wind-induced net horizontal circulation. Several factors control the patterns of circulation and mixing in San Francisco Bay. Viewing circulation and mixing over different time-periods and at different geographic scales causes the influences of different factors to be emphasized. The exchange between the bay and coastal ocean and freshwater inflows determine the year-to-year behavior of San Francisco Bay as a freshwater-saltwater mixing zone. Within the bay, exchanges between the embayments control variations over a season. Circulation and mixing patterns within the embayments and the magnitude of river-induced seaward flow influence the between-bay exchanges. The within-bay patterns are in turn determined by tides, winds, and freshwater inflows. Because freshwater inflow is the only factor that can be managed, a major study focus is estimation of inflow-related effects. Most questions relate to the patterns of freshwater inflow necessary to protect valuable resources whose welfare is dependent on conditions in the bay. Among the important questions being addressed are: --What quantity of freshwater inflow is necessary to prevent salt intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, and what salinity distributions in the bay would result from various inflow patterns? --What quantity of freshwater inflow is sufficient to flush pollutants through the bay? Knowledge of circul

A fringe projector-based study of the Brighter-Fatter Effect in LSST CCDs

DOE PAGES

Gilbertson, W.; Nomerotski, A.; Takacs, P.

2017-09-07

In order to achieve the goals of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope for Dark Energy science requires a detailed understanding of CCD sensor effects. One such sensor effect is the Point Spread Function (PSF) increasing with flux, alternatively called the `Brighter-Fatter Effect.' Here a novel approach was tested to perform the PSF measurements in the context of the Brighter-Fatter Effect employing a Michelson interferometer to project a sinusoidal fringe pattern onto the CCD. The Brighter-Fatter effect predicts that the fringe pattern should become asymmetric in the intensity pattern as the brighter peaks corresponding to a larger flux are smeared bymore » a larger PSF. By fitting the data with a model that allows for a changing PSF, the strength of the Brighter-Fatter effect can be evaluated.« less

A fringe projector-based study of the Brighter-Fatter Effect in LSST CCDs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gilbertson, W.; Nomerotski, A.; Takacs, P.

In order to achieve the goals of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope for Dark Energy science requires a detailed understanding of CCD sensor effects. One such sensor effect is the Point Spread Function (PSF) increasing with flux, alternatively called the `Brighter-Fatter Effect.' Here a novel approach was tested to perform the PSF measurements in the context of the Brighter-Fatter Effect employing a Michelson interferometer to project a sinusoidal fringe pattern onto the CCD. The Brighter-Fatter effect predicts that the fringe pattern should become asymmetric in the intensity pattern as the brighter peaks corresponding to a larger flux are smeared bymore » a larger PSF. By fitting the data with a model that allows for a changing PSF, the strength of the Brighter-Fatter effect can be evaluated.« less

NASA Applied Sciences' DEVELOP National Program: Summer 2010 Florida Agriculture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooley, Zachary C.; Billiot, Amanda; Lee, Lucas; McKee, Jake

2010-01-01

The main agricultural areas in South Florida are located within the fertile land surrounding Lake Okeechobee. The Atlantic Watershed monthly rainfall anomalies showed a weak but statistically significant correlation to the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI). No other watershed s anomalies showed significant correlations with ONI or the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). During La Nina months, less sea breeze days and more disturbed days were found to occur compared to El Nino and neutral months. The increase in disturbed days can likely by attributed to the synoptic pattern during La Nina, which is known to be favorable for tropical systems to follow paths that affect South Florida. Overall, neither sea breeze rainfall patterns nor total rainfall patterns in South Florida s main agricultural areas were found to be strongly influenced by the El Nino Southern Oscillation during our study time.

Application of spatial synoptic classification in evaluating links between heat stress and cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in Prague, Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urban, Aleš; Kyselý, Jan

2018-01-01

Spatial synoptic classification (SSC) is here first employed in assessing heat-related mortality and morbidity in Central Europe. It is applied for examining links between weather patterns and cardiovascular (CVD) mortality and morbidity in an extended summer season (16 May-15 September) during 1994-2009. As in previous studies, two SSC air masses (AMs)—dry tropical (DT) and moist tropical (MT)—are associated with significant excess CVD mortality in Prague, while effects on CVD hospital admissions are small and insignificant. Excess mortality for ischaemic heart diseases is more strongly associated with DT, while MT has adverse effect especially on cerebrovascular mortality. Links between the oppressive AMs and excess mortality relate also to conditions on previous days, as DT and MT occur in typical sequences. The highest CVD mortality deviations are found 1 day after a hot spell's onset, when temperature as well as frequency of the oppressive AMs are highest. Following this peak is typically DT- to MT-like weather transition, characterized by decrease in temperature and increase in humidity. The transition between upward (DT) and downward (MT) phases is associated with the largest excess CVD mortality, and the change contributes to the increased and more lagged effects on cerebrovascular mortality. The study highlights the importance of critically evaluating SSC's applicability and benefits within warning systems relative to other synoptic and epidemiological approaches. Only a subset of days with the oppressive AMs is associated with excess mortality, and regression models accounting for possible meteorological and other factors explain little of the mortality variance.

The imprint of surface fluxes and transport on variations in total column carbon dioxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keppel-Aleks, G.; Wennberg, P. O.; Washenfelder, R. A.; Wunch, D.; Schneider, T.; Toon, G. C.; Andres, R. J.; Blavier, J.-F.; Connor, B.; Davis, K. J.; Desai, A. R.; Messerschmidt, J.; Notholt, J.; Roehl, C. M.; Sherlock, V.; Stephens, B. B.; Vay, S. A.; Wofsy, S. C.

2011-07-01

New observations of the vertically integrated CO2 mixing ratio, ⟨CO2⟩, from ground-based remote sensing show that variations in ⟨CO2⟩ are primarily determined by large-scale flux patterns. They therefore provide fundamentally different information than observations made within the boundary layer, which reflect the combined influence of large scale and local fluxes. Observations of both ⟨CO2⟩ and CO2 concentrations in the free troposphere show that large-scale spatial gradients induce synoptic-scale temporal variations in ⟨CO2⟩ in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes through horizontal advection. Rather than obscure the signature of surface fluxes on atmospheric CO2, these synoptic-scale variations provide useful information that can be used to reveal the meridional flux distribution. We estimate the meridional gradient in ⟨CO2⟩ from covariations in ⟨CO2⟩ and potential temperature, θ, a dynamical tracer, on synoptic timescales to evaluate surface flux estimates commonly used in carbon cycle models. We find that Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) biospheric fluxes underestimate both the ⟨CO2⟩ seasonal cycle amplitude throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes as well as the meridional gradient during the growing season. Simulations using CASA net ecosystem exchange (NEE) with increased and phase-shifted boreal fluxes better reflect the observations. Our simulations suggest that boreal growing season NEE (between 45-65° N) is underestimated by ~40 % in CASA. We describe the implications for this large seasonal exchange on inference of the net Northern Hemisphere terrestrial carbon sink.

The imprint of surface fluxes and transport on variations in total column carbon dioxide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keppel-Aleks, G; Wennberg, PO; Washenfelder, RA

2012-01-01

New observations of the vertically integrated CO{sub 2} mixing ratio, , from ground-based remote sensing show that variations in are primarily determined by large-scale flux patterns. They therefore provide fundamentally different information than observations made within the boundary layer, which reflect the combined influence of large-scale and local fluxes. Observations of both and CO{sub 2} concentrations in the free troposphere show that large-scale spatial gradients induce synoptic-scale temporal variations in in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes through horizontal advection. Rather than obscure the signature of surface fluxes on atmospheric CO{sub 2}, these synoptic-scale variationsmore » provide useful information that can be used to reveal the meridional flux distribution. We estimate the meridional gradient in from covariations in and potential temperature, {theta}, a dynamical tracer, on synoptic timescales to evaluate surface flux estimates commonly used in carbon cycle models. We find that simulations using Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) biospheric fluxes underestimate both the seasonal cycle amplitude throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and the meridional gradient during the growing season. Simulations using CASA net ecosystem exchange (NEE) with increased and phase-shifted boreal fluxes better fit the observations. Our simulations suggest that climatological mean CASA fluxes underestimate boreal growing season NEE (between 45-65{sup o} N) by {approx}40%. We describe the implications for this large seasonal exchange on inference of the net Northern Hemisphere terrestrial carbon sink.« less

The imprint of surface fluxes and transport on variations in total column carbon dioxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keppel-Aleks, G.; Wennberg, P. O.; Washenfelder, R. A.; Wunch, D.; Schneider, T.; Toon, G. C.; Andres, R. J.; Blavier, J.-F.; Connor, B.; Davis, K. J.; Desai, A. R.; Messerschmidt, J.; Notholt, J.; Roehl, C. M.; Sherlock, V.; Stephens, B. B.; Vay, S. A.; Wofsy, S. C.

2012-03-01

New observations of the vertically integrated CO2 mixing ratio, ⟨CO2⟩, from ground-based remote sensing show that variations in CO2⟩ are primarily determined by large-scale flux patterns. They therefore provide fundamentally different information than observations made within the boundary layer, which reflect the combined influence of large-scale and local fluxes. Observations of both ⟨CO2⟩ and CO2 concentrations in the free troposphere show that large-scale spatial gradients induce synoptic-scale temporal variations in ⟨CO2⟩ in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes through horizontal advection. Rather than obscure the signature of surface fluxes on atmospheric CO2, these synoptic-scale variations provide useful information that can be used to reveal the meridional flux distribution. We estimate the meridional gradient in ⟨CO2⟩ from covariations in ⟨CO2⟩ and potential temperature, θ, a dynamical tracer, on synoptic timescales to evaluate surface flux estimates commonly used in carbon cycle models. We find that simulations using Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) biospheric fluxes underestimate both the ⟨CO2⟩ seasonal cycle amplitude throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and the meridional gradient during the growing season. Simulations using CASA net ecosystem exchange (NEE) with increased and phase-shifted boreal fluxes better fit the observations. Our simulations suggest that climatological mean CASA fluxes underestimate boreal growing season NEE (between 45-65° N) by ~40%. We describe the implications for this large seasonal exchange on inference of the net Northern Hemisphere terrestrial carbon sink.

Diversity in the representation of large-scale circulation associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon teleconnections in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramu, Dandi A.; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Kumar, O. S. R. U. B.

2018-04-01

Realistic simulation of large-scale circulation patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital in coupled models in order to represent teleconnections to different regions of globe. The diversity in representing large-scale circulation patterns associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon (ISM) teleconnections in 23 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models is examined. CMIP5 models have been classified into three groups based on the correlation between Niño3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) index and ISM rainfall anomalies, models in group 1 (G1) overestimated El Niño-ISM teleconections and group 3 (G3) models underestimated it, whereas these teleconnections are better represented in group 2 (G2) models. Results show that in G1 models, El Niño-induced Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST anomalies are not well represented. Anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the southeastern TIO and western subtropical northwest Pacific (WSNP) cyclonic circulation are shifted too far west to 60° E and 120° E, respectively. This bias in circulation patterns implies dry wind advection from extratropics/midlatitudes to Indian subcontinent. In addition to this, large-scale upper level convergence together with lower level divergence over ISM region corresponding to El Niño are stronger in G1 models than in observations. Thus, unrealistic shift in low-level circulation centers corroborated by upper level circulation changes are responsible for overestimation of ENSO-ISM teleconnections in G1 models. Warm Pacific SST anomalies associated with El Niño are shifted too far west in many G3 models unlike in the observations. Further large-scale circulation anomalies over the Pacific and ISM region are misrepresented during El Niño years in G3 models. Too strong upper-level convergence away from Indian subcontinent and too weak WSNP cyclonic circulation are prominent in most of G3 models in which ENSO-ISM teleconnections are underestimated. On the other hand, many G2 models are able to represent most of large-scale circulation over Indo-Pacific region associated with El Niño and hence provide more realistic ENSO-ISM teleconnections. Therefore, this study advocates the importance of representation/simulation of large-scale circulation patterns during El Niño years in coupled models in order to capture El Niño-monsoon teleconnections well.

Pattern of maternal circulating CRH in laboratory-housed squirrel and owl monkeys

PubMed Central

Power, ML; Williams, LE; Gibson, SV; Schulkin, J; Helfers, J; Zorrilla, EP

2010-01-01

The anthropoid primate placenta appears to be unique in producing corticotropin-releasing hormone (CRH). Placental CRH is involved in an endocrine circuit key to the production of estrogens during pregnancy. CRH induces cortisol production by the maternal and fetal adrenal glands, leading to further placental CRH production. CRH also stimulates the fetal adrenal glands to produce dehydroepiandrostendione sulfate (DHEAS) which the placenta converts into estrogens. There are at least two patterns of maternal circulating CRH across gestation among anthropoids. Monkeys examined to date (Papio and Callithrix) have an early-to-mid gestational peak of circulating CRH, followed by a steady decline to a plateau level, with a possible rise near parturition. In contrast, humans and great apes have an exponential rise in circulating CRH peaking at parturition. To further document and compare patterns of maternal circulating CRH in anthropoid primates, we collected monthly blood samples on 14 squirrel monkeys (Saimiri boliviensis) and 10 owl monkeys (Aotus nancymaae) during pregnancy. CRH immunoreactivity was measured from extracted plasma by solid-phase RIA. Both squirrel and owl monkeys displayed a mid-gestational peak in circulating CRH: days 45–65 of the 152-day gestation for squirrel monkeys (mean±SEM CRH = 2694±276 pg/ml) and days 60–80 of the 133-day gestation for owl monkeys (9871±974 pg/ml). In squirrel monkeys, circulating CRH declined to 36% of mean peak value by two weeks before parturition and then appeared to increase; the best model for circulating CRH over gestation in squirrel monkeys was a cubic function, similar to previous results for baboons and marmosets. In owl monkeys, circulating CRH appeared to plateau with no subsequent significant decline approaching parturition, although a cubic function was the best fit. This study provides additional evidence for a mid-gestational peak of maternal circulating CRH in ancestral anthropoids that has been lost in the hominoid lineage. PMID:20872786

Sensitivity of the Meridional Overturning Circulation to the Pattern of the Surface Density Flux

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-01

Atlantic alone, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) transports over 1015 W of heat (Ganachaud and Wunsch 2000) poleward...Phys. Oceanogr., 17, 970–985. Bryden, H. L., H. Longworth, and S. Cunningham, 2005: Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25...Rahmstorf, 2007: On the driving processes of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation . Rev. Geophys., 45, RG2001, doi:

North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

DOE PAGES

Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; ...

2015-05-22

This paper reviews research approaches and open questions regarding data, statistical analyses, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends in relation to temperature extremes. Our specific focus is upon extreme events of short duration (roughly less than 5 days) that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Methods used to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques can connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplements more straightforward analyses. A wide array of LSMPs, ranging from synoptic tomore » planetary scale phenomena, have been implicated as contributors to extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the physical nature of these contributions and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the implicated LSMPs is incomplete. There is a pressing need for (a) systematic study of the physics of LSMPs life cycles and (b) comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages and LSMP behavior. Generally, climate models capture the observed heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreaks frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Climate models have been used to investigate past changes and project future trends in extreme temperatures. Overall, modeling studies have identified important mechanisms such as the effects of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs more specifically to understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated so more research is needed to understand the limitations of climate models and improve model skill in simulating extreme temperatures and their associated LSMPs. Furthermore, the paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.« less

Association of whale sharks (Rhincodon typus) with thermo-biological frontal systems of the eastern tropical Pacific.

PubMed

Ryan, John P; Green, Jonathan R; Espinoza, Eduardo; Hearn, Alex R

2017-01-01

Satellite tracking of 27 whale sharks in the eastern tropical Pacific, examined in relation to environmental data, indicates preferential occupancy of thermo-biological frontal systems. In these systems, thermal gradients are caused by wind-forced circulation and mixing, and biological gradients are caused by associated nutrient enrichment and enhanced primary productivity. Two of the frontal systems result from upwelling, driven by divergence in the current systems along the equator and the west coast of South America; the third results from wind jet dynamics off Central America. All whale sharks were tagged near Darwin Island, Galápagos, within the equatorial Pacific upwelling system. Occupancy of frontal habitat is pronounced in synoptic patterns of shark locations in relation to serpentine, temporally varying thermal fronts across a zonal expanse > 4000 km. 80% of shark positions in northern equatorial upwelling habitat and 100% of positions in eastern boundary upwelling habitat were located within the upwelling front. Analysis of equatorial shark locations relative to thermal gradients reveals occupancy of a transition point in environmental stability. Equatorial subsurface tag data show residence in shallow, warm (>22°C) water 94% of the time. Surface zonal current speeds for all equatorial tracking explain only 16% of the variance in shark zonal movement speeds, indicating that passive drifting is not a primary determinant of movement patterns. Movement from equatorial to eastern boundary frontal zones occurred during boreal winter, when equatorial upwelling weakens seasonally. Off Peru sharks tracked upwelling frontal positions within ~100-350 km from the coast. Off Central America, the largest tagged shark (12.8 m TL) occupied an oceanic front along the periphery of the Panama wind jet. Seasonal movement from waning equatorial upwelling to productive eastern boundary habitat is consistent with underlying trophic dynamics. Persistent shallow residence in thermo-biological frontal zones suggests the role of physical-biological interactions that concentrate food resources.

Association of whale sharks (Rhincodon typus) with thermo-biological frontal systems of the eastern tropical Pacific

PubMed Central

Green, Jonathan R.; Espinoza, Eduardo; Hearn, Alex R.

2017-01-01

Satellite tracking of 27 whale sharks in the eastern tropical Pacific, examined in relation to environmental data, indicates preferential occupancy of thermo-biological frontal systems. In these systems, thermal gradients are caused by wind-forced circulation and mixing, and biological gradients are caused by associated nutrient enrichment and enhanced primary productivity. Two of the frontal systems result from upwelling, driven by divergence in the current systems along the equator and the west coast of South America; the third results from wind jet dynamics off Central America. All whale sharks were tagged near Darwin Island, Galápagos, within the equatorial Pacific upwelling system. Occupancy of frontal habitat is pronounced in synoptic patterns of shark locations in relation to serpentine, temporally varying thermal fronts across a zonal expanse > 4000 km. 80% of shark positions in northern equatorial upwelling habitat and 100% of positions in eastern boundary upwelling habitat were located within the upwelling front. Analysis of equatorial shark locations relative to thermal gradients reveals occupancy of a transition point in environmental stability. Equatorial subsurface tag data show residence in shallow, warm (>22°C) water 94% of the time. Surface zonal current speeds for all equatorial tracking explain only 16% of the variance in shark zonal movement speeds, indicating that passive drifting is not a primary determinant of movement patterns. Movement from equatorial to eastern boundary frontal zones occurred during boreal winter, when equatorial upwelling weakens seasonally. Off Peru sharks tracked upwelling frontal positions within ~100–350 km from the coast. Off Central America, the largest tagged shark (12.8 m TL) occupied an oceanic front along the periphery of the Panama wind jet. Seasonal movement from waning equatorial upwelling to productive eastern boundary habitat is consistent with underlying trophic dynamics. Persistent shallow residence in thermo-biological frontal zones suggests the role of physical-biological interactions that concentrate food resources. PMID:28854201

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kitada, Toshihiro; Okamura, Kiyoshi; Tanaka, Setsu

Japanese large cities, mostly located in coastal region, have rapidly expanded in the last three decades. People in the region now experience warmer and unpleasant thermal environment in summer season, supposedly because of the extensive urbanization. Especially, under fine weather with light synoptic-scale gradient wind, the highest temperature often appears in rather inland area. An explanation to this phenomenon is horizontal transport of heat by the sea breeze which is strongly heated during its passage over the coastal urban area. This study investigated how and how much urbanization in Nohbi Plain of central Japan influences local wind and temperature distributionmore » over the plain and its surrounding region, Nohbi Plain which faces to the Pacific Ocean and is surrounded by the Japanese Alps, and thus is in a typical topographic situation in Japan. For the study we performed numerical simulations using our meso-scale meteorological model which includes k-c model for turbulence. One of the major results obtained is to have clarified a hierarchy in natural and artificial topography of various scales on their contributions to formation of characteristic diurnal pattern of wind and temperature distributions in the plain area. The Japanese Alps, the largest topographic feature in central Japan and often called the roof of Japan, gave the most important influence on the wind, although the mountains are located quite far, around 200 km, from Nohbi Plain. The way for the influence of the high mountains was to warm air mass in upper layer but below 2 km in altitude, over the Nohbi Plain through heat transport due to a large scale circulation consisting of the {open_quotes}flows from plain to plateau in lower layer and plateau to plain in upper layer{close_quotes}. Urbanization in the coastal Nohbi Plain showed little effect on the flow pattern, but caused large temperature rises at surface level in the inland area because of horizontal heat transfer by the sea breeze.« less

McCall Glacier record of Arctic climate change: Interpreting a northern Alaska ice core with regional water isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, E. S.; Nolan, M.; McConnell, J.; Sigl, M.; Cherry, J.; Young, J.; Welker, J. M.

2016-01-01

We explored modern precipitation and ice core isotope ratios to better understand both modern and paleo climate in the Arctic. Paleoclimate reconstructions require an understanding of how modern synoptic climate influences proxies used in those reconstructions, such as water isotopes. Therefore we measured periodic precipitation samples at Toolik Lake Field Station (Toolik) in the northern foothills of the Brooks Range in the Alaskan Arctic to determine δ18O and δ2H. We applied this multi-decadal local precipitation δ18O/temperature regression to ∼65 years of McCall Glacier (also in the Brooks Range) ice core isotope measurements and found an increase in reconstructed temperatures over the late-20th and early-21st centuries. We also show that the McCall Glacier δ18O isotope record is negatively correlated with the winter bidecadal North Pacific Index (NPI) climate oscillation. McCall Glacier deuterium excess (d-excess, δ2H - 8*δ18O) values display a bidecadal periodicity coherent with the NPI and suggest shifts from more southwestern Bering Sea moisture sources with less sea ice (lower d-excess values) to more northern Arctic Ocean moisture sources with more sea ice (higher d-excess values). Northern ice covered Arctic Ocean McCall Glacier moisture sources are associated with weak Aleutian Low (AL) circulation patterns and the southern moisture sources with strong AL patterns. Ice core d-excess values significantly decrease over the record, coincident with warmer temperatures and a significant reduction in Alaska sea ice concentration, which suggests that ice free northern ocean waters are increasingly serving as terrestrial precipitation moisture sources; a concept recently proposed by modeling studies and also present in Greenland ice core d-excess values during previous transitions to warm periods. This study also shows the efficacy and importance of using ice cores from Arctic valley glaciers in paleoclimate reconstructions.

Effects of Land Surface Heterogeneity on Simulated Boundary-Layer Structures from the LES to the Mesoscale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poll, Stefan; Shrestha, Prabhakar; Simmer, Clemens

2017-04-01

Land heterogeneity influences the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) structure including organized (secondary) circulations which feed back on land-atmosphere exchange fluxes. Especially the latter effects cannot be incorporated explicitly in regional and climate models due to their coarse computational spatial grids, but must be parameterized. Current parameterizations lead, however, to uncertainties in modeled surface fluxes and boundary layer evolution, which feed back to cloud initiation and precipitation. This study analyzes the impact of different horizontal grid resolutions on the simulated boundary layer structures in terms of stability, height and induced secondary circulations. The ICON-LES (Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic in LES mode) developed by the MPI-M and the German weather service (DWD) and conducted within the framework of HD(CP)2 is used. ICON is dynamically downscaled through multiple scales of 20 km, 7 km, 2.8 km, 625 m, 312 m, and 156 m grid spacing for several days over Germany and partial neighboring countries for different synoptic conditions. We examined the entropy spectrum of the land surface heterogeneity at these grid resolutions for several locations close to measurement sites, such as Lindenberg, Jülich, Cabauw and Melpitz, and studied its influence on the surface fluxes and the evolution of the boundary layer profiles.

Mesoscale to Synoptic Scale Cloud Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rossow, William B.

1998-01-01

The atmospheric circulation and its interaction with the oceanic circulation involve non-linear and non-local exchanges of energy and water over a very large range of space and time scales. These exchanges are revealed, in part, by the related variations of clouds, which occur on a similar range of scales as the atmospheric motions that produce them. Collection of comprehensive measurements of the properties of the atmosphere, clouds and surface allows for diagnosis of some of these exchanges. The use of a multi-satellite-network approach by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) comes closest to providing complete coverage of the relevant range space and time scales over which the clouds, atmosphere and ocean vary. A nearly 15-yr dataset is now available that covers the range from 3 hr and 30 km to decade and planetary. This paper considers three topics: (1) cloud variations at the smallest scales and how they may influence radiation-cloud interactions, and (2) cloud variations at "moderate" scales and how they may cause natural climate variability, and (3) cloud variations at the largest scales and how they affect the climate. The emphasis in this discussion is on the more mature subject of cloud-radiation interactions. There is now a need to begin similar detailed diagnostic studies of water exchange processes.

Weather types in the South Shetlands (Antarctica) using a circulation type approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mora, Carla; João Rocha, Maria; Dutra, Emanuel; Trigo, Isabel; Vieira, Gonçalo; Fragoso, Marcelo; Ramos, Miguel

2010-05-01

Weather types in the South Shetlands (Antarctica) were defined using an automated method based on the Lamb Weather Type classification scheme (Jones et al. 1993). This is an objective classification originally developed for the British Isles (Jones et al., 1993) and also applied to southeast (Goodess and Palutikof 1998) and northwest Spain (Lorenzo et al, 2009), Portugal (Trigo and DaCamara 2000) and Greece (Maheras et al. 2004) with good results. Daily atmospheric circulation in the South Shetlands region from 1989 to 2009 was classified using a 16-node grid of sea level pressure data from the ERA Interim. The classification is obtained through the comparison of the magnitudes of the directional and rotational components of the geostrophic flow. Basic circulation types were combined into 10 groups of weather types: four directional types (NW, N, S and SW), three anticyclonic types (A, ASW and ANW), and three cyclonic types (C, CSW and CNW). Westerly flow and cyclonic circulation are the most frequent events throughout the year. The sea level pressure field for each weather type is presented and the synoptic characteristics are described. The analysis is based on ERA-Interim fields, including mean sea level pressure, precipitation, cloud cover, humidity and air temperature. Snow thickess modelled using HTESSEL is also considered. Analysis of variance (anova) and multivariate analysis (principal component analysis) are applied to evaluate the characteristics of each weather type. This circulation-type approach showed good results in the past for the downscaling of precipitation in other regions, and we are interested in evaluating the possibilities that the classification offers for downscaling precipitation, but also for snow and air temperature. For this we will be using observational data at test sites in Livingston and Deception islands. We are also motivated by the possibility of using the circulation-type approach as a predictor in statistical downscaling. References: Goodess CM, Palutikof JP.1998. Development of daily rainfall scenarios for southeast Spain using a Circulation-type approach to downscaling. International Journal of Climatology. 10: 1051-1083. JonesPD, Hulme M, Briffa KR. 1993. A comparison of Lamb circulation types with an objective classification scheme. International Journal of Climatology, 13:655-663. Lorenzo M N, Iglesias I , Taboada JJ , Gómez-Gesteira M. 2009. Relationship between monthly rainfall in northwest Iberian Peninsula and North Atlantic sea surface temperature. International Journal of Climatology. Maheras P, Tolika K, Anagnostopoulou C, Vafiadis M, Patrikas I, Flocas H. 2004. On the relationship between circulation types and changes in rainfall variability in Grece. International Journal of Climatology 24: 1695-1712. Trigo RM, DaCamara C. 2000. Circulation weather types and their influence on the precipitation regime in Portugal. International Journal of Climatology. 20: 1559-1581.

North-western Mediterranean sea-breeze circulation in a regional climate system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drobinski, Philippe; Bastin, Sophie; Arsouze, Thomas; Béranger, Karine; Flaounas, Emmanouil; Stéfanon, Marc

2017-04-01

In the Mediterranean basin, moisture transport can occur over large distance from remote regions by the synoptic circulation or more locally by sea breezes, driven by land-sea thermal contrast. Sea breezes play an important role in inland transport of moisture especially between late spring and early fall. In order to explicitly represent the two-way interactions at the atmosphere-ocean interface in the Mediterranean region and quantify the role of air-sea feedbacks on regional meteorology and climate, simulations at 20 km resolution performed with WRF regional climate model (RCM) and MORCE atmosphere-ocean regional climate model (AORCM) coupling WRF and NEMO-MED12 in the frame of HyMeX/MED-CORDEX are compared. One result of this study is that these simulations reproduce remarkably well the intensity, direction and inland penetration of the sea breeze and even the existence of the shallow sea breeze despite the overestimate of temperature over land in both simulations. The coupled simulation provides a more realistic representation of the evolution of the SST field at fine scale than the atmosphere-only one. Temperature and moisture anomalies are created in direct response to the SST anomaly and are advected by the sea breeze over land. However, the SST anomalies are not of sufficient magnitude to affect the large-scale sea-breeze circulation. The temperature anomalies are quickly damped by strong surface heating over land, whereas the water vapor mixing ratio anomalies are transported further inland. The inland limit of significance is imposed by the vertical dilution in a deeper continental boundary-layer.