Future Changes in Autumn Flood Type and Frequency in Pacific Northwest North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menounos, B.; Cannon, A. J.; Radic, V.; Moore, R. D.; Dery, S. J.; Jackson, P. L.; Anslow, F. S.

2013-12-01

During the 20th and early 21st century, autumn storms in the Pacific Northwest of North America - PNWNA (coastal British Columbia and Washington) caused widespread flooding and landslides. Understanding how these intense storms are likely to change in the future is important given their potential to harm people and cause widespread damage, but assessing these changes using climate models is difficult. Parameterization of precipitation in general circulation and regional climate models (GCM, RCM) is prone to error, especially in the mountainous terrain of the PNWNA. High computational demands of RCMs also limits their use in assessing changes in flood type and frequency for a suite of GCM and emission scenarios. We instead focus our efforts on understanding atmospheric circulation patterns responsible for historical autumn flooding (15 August - 31 December) and examine how these synoptic conditions are likely to change under future emission scenarios. Our analysis includes identification of extreme events (runoff and precipitation) in streamflow and precipitation records from coastal Washington and British Columbia for the period 1948-2010. Our methods to link the instrumental record of extreme autumn events to atmospheric conditions (500 and 850 hPa geopotential height and integrated vapor transport obtained from NCEP and CFSR reanalysis) include: (1) compositing of streamflow and precipitation events (environment-to-circulation); (2) self organizing map synoptic classification (circulation-to-environment); and (3) regression tree synoptic classification (hybrid of environment-to-circulation and circulation-to-environment). We then evaluate changes in flood-generating synoptic types in the CMIP5 ensemble over the period 2010-2100. Our analysis indicates that, as expected, most floods are associated with atmospheric river events that are commonly associated with upper level, quasi stationary low- and high-pressure systems respectively located in the Gulf of Alaska and east of the PNWNA. Based on our initial analysis of the CMIP5 data, we note an increase in autumn flood-producing synoptic weather types for the PNWNA. We discuss the implications of increased autumn flooding to communities and infrastructure.

On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdon-Kidd, D.; Kiem, A. S.

2008-10-01

In this paper regional (synoptic) and large-scale climate drivers of rainfall are investigated for Victoria, Australia. A non-linear classification methodology known as self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify 20 key regional synoptic patterns, which are shown to capture a range of significant synoptic features known to influence the climate of the region. Rainfall distributions are assigned to each of the 20 patterns for nine rainfall stations located across Victoria, resulting in a clear distinction between wet and dry synoptic types at each station. The influence of large-scale climate modes on the frequency and timing of the regional synoptic patterns is also investigated. This analysis revealed that phase changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and/or Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are associated with a shift in the relative frequency of wet and dry synoptic types. Importantly, these results highlight the potential to utilise the link between the regional synoptic patterns derived in this study and large-scale climate modes to improve rainfall forecasting for Victoria, both in the short- (i.e. seasonal) and long-term (i.e. decadal/multi-decadal scale). In addition, the regional and large-scale climate drivers identified in this study provide a benchmark by which the performance of Global Climate Models (GCMs) may be assessed.

Meteorological regimes for the classification of aerospace air quality predictions for NASA-Kennedy Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephens, J. B.; Sloan, J. C.

1976-01-01

A method is described for developing a statistical air quality assessment for the launch of an aerospace vehicle from the Kennedy Space Center in terms of existing climatological data sets. The procedure can be refined as developing meteorological conditions are identified for use with the NASA-Marshall Space Flight Center Rocket Exhaust Effluent Diffusion (REED) description. Classical climatological regimes for the long range analysis can be narrowed as the synoptic and mesoscale structure is identified. Only broad synoptic regimes are identified at this stage of analysis. As the statistical data matrix is developed, synoptic regimes will be refined in terms of the resulting eigenvectors as applicable to aerospace air quality predictions.

Application of spatial synoptic classification in evaluating links between heat stress and cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in Prague, Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urban, Aleš; Kyselý, Jan

2018-01-01

Spatial synoptic classification (SSC) is here first employed in assessing heat-related mortality and morbidity in Central Europe. It is applied for examining links between weather patterns and cardiovascular (CVD) mortality and morbidity in an extended summer season (16 May-15 September) during 1994-2009. As in previous studies, two SSC air masses (AMs)—dry tropical (DT) and moist tropical (MT)—are associated with significant excess CVD mortality in Prague, while effects on CVD hospital admissions are small and insignificant. Excess mortality for ischaemic heart diseases is more strongly associated with DT, while MT has adverse effect especially on cerebrovascular mortality. Links between the oppressive AMs and excess mortality relate also to conditions on previous days, as DT and MT occur in typical sequences. The highest CVD mortality deviations are found 1 day after a hot spell's onset, when temperature as well as frequency of the oppressive AMs are highest. Following this peak is typically DT- to MT-like weather transition, characterized by decrease in temperature and increase in humidity. The transition between upward (DT) and downward (MT) phases is associated with the largest excess CVD mortality, and the change contributes to the increased and more lagged effects on cerebrovascular mortality. The study highlights the importance of critically evaluating SSC's applicability and benefits within warning systems relative to other synoptic and epidemiological approaches. Only a subset of days with the oppressive AMs is associated with excess mortality, and regression models accounting for possible meteorological and other factors explain little of the mortality variance.

On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdon-Kidd, D. C.; Kiem, A. S.

2009-04-01

In this paper regional (synoptic) and large-scale climate drivers of rainfall are investigated for Victoria, Australia. A non-linear classification methodology known as self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify 20 key regional synoptic patterns, which are shown to capture a range of significant synoptic features known to influence the climate of the region. Rainfall distributions are assigned to each of the 20 patterns for nine rainfall stations located across Victoria, resulting in a clear distinction between wet and dry synoptic types at each station. The influence of large-scale climate modes on the frequency and timing of the regional synoptic patterns is also investigated. This analysis revealed that phase changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and/or the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are associated with a shift in the relative frequency of wet and dry synoptic types on an annual to inter-annual timescale. In addition, the relative frequency of synoptic types is shown to vary on a multi-decadal timescale, associated with changes in the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Importantly, these results highlight the potential to utilise the link between the regional synoptic patterns derived in this study and large-scale climate modes to improve rainfall forecasting for Victoria, both in the short- (i.e. seasonal) and long-term (i.e. decadal/multi-decadal scale). In addition, the regional and large-scale climate drivers identified in this study provide a benchmark by which the performance of Global Climate Models (GCMs) may be assessed.

Modelling wildfire activity in Iberia with different Atmospheric Circulation WTs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, P. M.; Trigo, R.; Pereira, M. G.; Rasilla, D.; Gouveia, C.

2012-04-01

This work focuses on the spatial and temporal variability of burnt area (BA) for the entire Iberian Peninsula (IP) and on the construction of statistical models to reproduce the inter-annual variability, based on Weather Types Classification (WTC). A common BA dataset was assembled for the first time for the entire Iberian Peninsula, by merging BA records for the 66 administrative regions of Portugal and Spain. A normalization procedure was then applied to the various size regions before performing a k-means cluster analysis to identify large areas characterized by similar fire regimes. The most compelling results were obtained for 4 clusters (Northwestern, Northern, Southwestern and Eastern) whose spatial patterns and seasonal fire regimes are shown to be related with constraining factors such as topography, vegetation cover and climate conditions. The response of fire burnt surface at monthly time scales to both long-term climatic pre-conditions and short-term synoptic forcing was assessed through correlation and regression analysis using: (i) temperature and precipitation from 2 to 7 months in advance to fire peak season; (ii) synoptic weather patterns derived from 11 distinct classifications derived under the COSTaction-733. Different responses were obtained for each of the considered regions: (i) a relevant link between BA and short-term synoptic forcing (represented by monthly frequencies of WTC) was identified for all clusters; (ii) long-term climatic preconditioning was relevant for all but one cluster (Northern). Taking into account these links, we developed stepwise regression models with the aim of reproducing the observed BA series (i.e. in hindcast mode). These models were based on the best climatic and synoptic circulation predictors identified previously. All models were cross-validated and their performance varies between clusters, though models exclusively based on WTCs tend to better reproduce annual BA time series than those only based on pre-conditioning climatic information. Nevertheless, the best results are attained when both synoptic and climatic predictors are used simultaneously as predictors, in particular for the two western clusters, where correlation coefficient values are higher than 0.7. Finally, we have used WTC composite maps to characterize the typical synoptic configurations that favor high values of BA. These patterns correspond to dry and warm fluxes, associated with anticyclonic regimes, which foster fire ignition (Pereira et al., 2005). Pereira, M.G., Trigo, R.M., DaCamara, C.C., Pereira, J.M.C., Leite, S.M., 2005: "Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal". Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 129, 11-25. COST733, 2011: "COST 733 Wiki - Harmonisation and Applications of Weather Type Classifications for European regions or COST733 spatial domains for Europe". Available at http://geo21.geo.uni-augsburg.de/cost733wiki/Cost733_Wiki_Main [accessed 1 September 2011].

Analysis of Numerical Weather Predictions of Reference Evapotranspiration and Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bughici, Theodor; Lazarovitch, Naftali; Fredj, Erick; Tas, Eran

2017-04-01

This study attempts to improve the forecast skill of the evapotranspiration (ET0) and Precipitation for the purpose of crop irrigation management over Israel using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Optimized crop irrigation, in term of timing and quantities, decreases water and agrochemicals demand. Crop water demands depend on evapotranspiration and precipitation. The common method for computing reference evapotranspiration, for agricultural needs, ET0, is according to the FAO Penman-Monteith equation. The weather variables required for ET0 calculation (air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and solar irradiance) are estimated by the WRF model. The WRF Model with two-way interacting domains at horizontal resolutions of 27, 9 and 3 km is used in the study. The model prediction was performed in an hourly time resolution and a 3 km spatial resolution, with forecast lead-time of up to four days. The WRF prediction of these variables have been compared against measurements from 29 meteorological stations across Israel for the year 2013. The studied area is small but with strong climatic gradient, diverse topography and variety of synoptic conditions. The forecast skill that was used for forecast validation takes into account the prediction bias, mean absolute error and root mean squared error. The forecast skill of the variables was almost robust to lead time, except for precipitation. The forecast skill was tested across stations with respect to topography and geographic location and for all stations with respect to seasonality and synoptic weather system determined by employing a semi-objective synoptic systems classification to the forecasted days. It was noticeable that forecast skill of some of the variables was deteriorated by seasonality and topography. However, larger impacts in the ET0 skill scores on the forecasted day are achieved by a synoptic based forecast. These results set the basis for increasing the robustness of ET0 to synoptic effects and for more precise crop irrigation over Israel.

Classification of summertime synoptic patterns in Beijing and their associations with boundary layer structure affecting aerosol pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Yucong; Guo, Jianping; Liu, Shuhua; Liu, Huan; Li, Zhanqing; Zhang, Wanchun; Zhai, Panmao

2017-02-01

Meteorological conditions within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) are closely governed by large-scale synoptic patterns and play important roles in air quality by directly and indirectly affecting the emission, transport, formation, and deposition of air pollutants. Partly due to the lack of long-term fine-resolution observations of the PBL, the relationships between synoptic patterns, PBL structure, and aerosol pollution in Beijing have not been well understood. This study applied the obliquely rotated principal component analysis in T-mode to classify the summertime synoptic conditions over Beijing using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis from 2011 to 2014, and investigated their relationships with PBL structure and aerosol pollution by combining numerical simulations, measurements of surface meteorological variables, fine-resolution soundings, the concentration of particles with diameters less than or equal to 2.5 µm, total cloud cover (CLD), and reanalysis data. Among the seven identified synoptic patterns, three types accounted for 67 % of the total number of cases studied and were associated with heavy aerosol pollution events. These particular synoptic patterns were characterized by high-pressure systems located to the east or southeast of Beijing at the 925 hPa level, which blocked the air flow seaward, and southerly PBL winds that brought in polluted air from the southern industrial zone. The horizontal transport of pollutants induced by the synoptic forcings may be the most important factor affecting the air quality of Beijing in summer. In the vertical dimension, these three synoptic patterns featured a relatively low boundary layer height (BLH) in the afternoon, accompanied by high CLD and southerly cold advection from the seas within the PBL. The high CLD reduced the solar radiation reaching the surface, and suppressed the thermal turbulence, leading to lower BLH. Besides, the numerical sensitive experiments show that cold advection induced by the large-scale synoptic forcing may have cooled the PBL, leading to an increase in near-surface stability and a decrease in the BLH in the afternoon. Moreover, when warm advection appeared simultaneously above the top level of the PBL, the thermal inversion layer capping the PBL may have been strengthened, resulting in the further suppression of PBL and thus the deterioration of aerosol pollution levels. This study has important implications for understanding the crucial roles that meteorological factors (at both synoptic and local scales) play in modulating and forecasting aerosol pollution in Beijing and its surrounding area.

Application of a hybrid association rules/decision tree model for drought monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nourani, Vahid; Molajou, Amir

2017-12-01

The previous researches have shown that the incorporation of the oceanic-atmospheric climate phenomena such as Sea Surface Temperature (SST) into hydro-climatic models could provide important predictive information about hydro-climatic variability. In this paper, the hybrid application of two data mining techniques (decision tree and association rules) was offered to discover affiliation between drought of Tabriz and Kermanshah synoptic stations (located in Iran) and de-trend SSTs of the Black, Mediterranean and Red Seas. Two major steps of the proposed model were the classification of de-trend SST data and selecting the most effective groups and extracting hidden information involved in the data. The techniques of decision tree which can identify the good traits from a data set for the classification purpose were used for classification and selecting the most effective groups and association rules were employed to extract the hidden predictive information from the large observed data. To examine the accuracy of the rules, confidence and Heidke Skill Score (HSS) measures were calculated and compared for different considering lag times. The computed measures confirm reliable performance of the proposed hybrid data mining method to forecast drought and the results show a relative correlation between the Mediterranean, Black and Red Sea de-trend SSTs and drought of Tabriz and Kermanshah synoptic stations so that the confidence between the monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values and the de-trend SST of seas is higher than 70 and 80% respectively for Tabriz and Kermanshah synoptic stations.

Analysis of the synoptic winter mortality climatology in five regions of England: Searching for evidence of weather signals.

PubMed

Paschalidou, A K; Kassomenos, P A; McGregor, G R

2017-11-15

Although heat-related mortality has received considerable research attention, the impact of cold weather on public health is less well-developed, probably due to the fact that physiological responses to cold weather can vary substantially among individuals, age groups, diseases etc., depending on a number of behavioral and physiological factors. In the current work we use the classification techniques provided by the COST-733 software to link synoptic circulation patterns with excess cold-related mortality in 5 regions of England. We conclude that, regardless of the classification scheme used, the most hazardous conditions for public health in England are associated with the prevalence of the Easterly type of weather, favoring advection of cold air from continental Europe. It is noteworthy that there has been observed little-to-no regional variation with regards to the classification results among the 5 regions, suggestive of a spatially homogenous response of mortality to the atmospheric patterns identified. In general, the 10 different groupings of days used reveal that excess winter mortality is linked with the lowest daily minimum/maximum temperatures in the area. However it is not uncommon to observe high mortality rates during days with higher, in relative terms, temperatures, when rapidly changing weather results in an increase of mortality. Such a finding confirms the complexity of cold-related mortality and highlights the importance of synoptic climatology in understanding of the phenomenon. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the role of snow cover ablation variability and synoptic-scale atmospheric forcings at the sub-basin scale within the Great Lakes watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suriano, Zachary J.

2018-02-01

Synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions play a critical role in determining the frequency and intensity of snow cover ablation in the mid-latitudes. Using a synoptic classification technique, distinct regional circulation patterns influencing the Great Lakes basin of North America are identified and examined in conjunction with daily snow ablation events from 1960 to 2009. This approach allows for the influence of each synoptic weather type on ablation to be examined independently and for the monthly and inter-annual frequencies of the weather types to be tracked over time. Because of the spatial heterogeneity of snow cover and the relatively large geographic extent of the Great Lakes basin, snow cover ablation events and the synoptic-scale patterns that cause them are examined for each of the Great Lakes watershed's five primary sub-basins to understand the regional complexities of snow cover ablation variability. Results indicate that while many synoptic weather patterns lead to ablation across the basins, they can be generally grouped into one of only a few primary patterns: southerly flow, high-pressure overhead, and rain-on-snow patterns. As expected, the patterns leading to ablation are not necessarily consistent between the five sub-basins due to the seasonality of snow cover and the spatial variability of temperature, moisture, wind, and incoming solar radiation associated with the particular synoptic weather types. Significant trends in the inter-annual frequency of ablation-inducing synoptic types do exist for some sub-basins, indicating a potential change in the hydrologic impact of these patterns over time.

A transient search using combined human and machine classifications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, Darryl E.; Lintott, Chris J.; Smartt, Stephen J.; Smith, Ken W.; Fortson, Lucy; Trouille, Laura; Allen, Campbell R.; Beck, Melanie; Bouslog, Mark C.; Boyer, Amy; Chambers, K. C.; Flewelling, Heather; Granger, Will; Magnier, Eugene A.; McMaster, Adam; Miller, Grant R. M.; O'Donnell, James E.; Simmons, Brooke; Spiers, Helen; Tonry, John L.; Veldthuis, Marten; Wainscoat, Richard J.; Waters, Chris; Willman, Mark; Wolfenbarger, Zach; Young, Dave R.

2017-12-01

Large modern surveys require efficient review of data in order to find transient sources such as supernovae, and to distinguish such sources from artefacts and noise. Much effort has been put into the development of automatic algorithms, but surveys still rely on human review of targets. This paper presents an integrated system for the identification of supernovae in data from Pan-STARRS1, combining classifications from volunteers participating in a citizen science project with those from a convolutional neural network. The unique aspect of this work is the deployment, in combination, of both human and machine classifications for near real-time discovery in an astronomical project. We show that the combination of the two methods outperforms either one used individually. This result has important implications for the future development of transient searches, especially in the era of Large Synoptic Survey Telescope and other large-throughput surveys.

Machine-assisted discovery of relationships in astronomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, Matthew J.; Djorgovski, S. G.; Mahabal, Ashish A.; Donalek, Ciro; Drake, Andrew J.

2013-05-01

High-volume feature-rich data sets are becoming the bread-and-butter of 21st century astronomy but present significant challenges to scientific discovery. In particular, identifying scientifically significant relationships between sets of parameters is non-trivial. Similar problems in biological and geosciences have led to the development of systems which can explore large parameter spaces and identify potentially interesting sets of associations. In this paper, we describe the application of automated discovery systems of relationships to astronomical data sets, focusing on an evolutionary programming technique and an information-theory technique. We demonstrate their use with classical astronomical relationships - the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram and the Fundamental Plane of elliptical galaxies. We also show how they work with the issue of binary classification which is relevant to the next generation of large synoptic sky surveys, such as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). We find that comparable results to more familiar techniques, such as decision trees, are achievable. Finally, we consider the reality of the relationships discovered and how this can be used for feature selection and extraction.

Cloud Properties under Different Synoptic Circulations: Comparison of Radiosonde and Ground-Based Active Remote Sensing Measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Jinqiang; Li, Jun; Xia, Xiangao

In this study, long-term (10 years) radiosonde-based cloud data are compared with the ground-based active remote sensing product under six prevailing large-scale synoptic patterns, i.e., cyclonic center (CC), weak pressure pattern (WP), the southeast bottom of cyclonic center (CB), cold front (CF), anticyclone edge (AE) and anticyclone center (AC) over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. The synoptic patterns are generated by applying the self-organizing map weather classification method to the daily National Centers for Environmental Protection mean sea level pressure records from the North American Regional Reanalysis. It reveals that the large-scale synoptic circulations can strongly influence the regionalmore » cloud formation, and thereby have impact on the consistency of cloud retrievals from the radiosonde and ground-based cloud product. The total cloud cover at the SGP site is characterized by the least in AC and the most in CF. The minimum and maximum differences between the two cloud methods are 10.3% for CC and 13.3% for WP. Compared to the synoptic patterns characterized by scattered cloudy and clear skies (AE and AC), the agreement of collocated cloud boundaries between the two cloud approaches tends to be better under the synoptic patterns dominated by overcast and cloudy skies (CC, WP and CB). The rainy and windy weather conditions in CF synoptic pattern influence the consistency of the two cloud retrieval methods associated with the limited capabilities inherent to the instruments. As a result, the cloud thickness distribution from the two cloud datasets compares favorably with each other in all synoptic patterns, with relative discrepancy of ≤0.3 km.« less

Cloud Properties under Different Synoptic Circulations: Comparison of Radiosonde and Ground-Based Active Remote Sensing Measurements

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Jinqiang; Li, Jun; Xia, Xiangao; ...

2016-11-28

In this study, long-term (10 years) radiosonde-based cloud data are compared with the ground-based active remote sensing product under six prevailing large-scale synoptic patterns, i.e., cyclonic center (CC), weak pressure pattern (WP), the southeast bottom of cyclonic center (CB), cold front (CF), anticyclone edge (AE) and anticyclone center (AC) over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. The synoptic patterns are generated by applying the self-organizing map weather classification method to the daily National Centers for Environmental Protection mean sea level pressure records from the North American Regional Reanalysis. It reveals that the large-scale synoptic circulations can strongly influence the regionalmore » cloud formation, and thereby have impact on the consistency of cloud retrievals from the radiosonde and ground-based cloud product. The total cloud cover at the SGP site is characterized by the least in AC and the most in CF. The minimum and maximum differences between the two cloud methods are 10.3% for CC and 13.3% for WP. Compared to the synoptic patterns characterized by scattered cloudy and clear skies (AE and AC), the agreement of collocated cloud boundaries between the two cloud approaches tends to be better under the synoptic patterns dominated by overcast and cloudy skies (CC, WP and CB). The rainy and windy weather conditions in CF synoptic pattern influence the consistency of the two cloud retrieval methods associated with the limited capabilities inherent to the instruments. As a result, the cloud thickness distribution from the two cloud datasets compares favorably with each other in all synoptic patterns, with relative discrepancy of ≤0.3 km.« less

Use of circulation types classifications to evaluate AR4 climate models over the Euro-Atlantic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastor, M. A.; Casado, M. J.

2012-10-01

This paper presents an evaluation of the multi-model simulations for the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in terms of their ability to simulate the ERA40 circulation types over the Euro-Atlantic region in winter season. Two classification schemes, k-means and SANDRA, have been considered to test the sensitivity of the evaluation results to the classification procedure. The assessment allows establishing different rankings attending spatial and temporal features of the circulation types. Regarding temporal characteristics, in general, all AR4 models tend to underestimate the frequency of occurrence. The best model simulating spatial characteristics is the UKMO-HadGEM1 whereas CCSM3, UKMO-HadGEM1 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the best simulating the temporal features, for both classification schemes. This result agrees with the AR4 models ranking obtained when having analysed the ability of the same AR4 models to simulate Euro-Atlantic variability modes. This study has proved the utility of applying such a synoptic climatology approach as a diagnostic tool for models' assessment. The ability of the models to properly reproduce the position of ridges and troughs and the frequency of synoptic patterns, will therefore improve our confidence in the response of models to future climate changes.

Using synoptic weather types to predict visitor attendance at Atlanta and Indianapolis zoological parks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perkins, David R.

2018-01-01

Defining an ideal "tourism climate" has been an often-visited research topic where explanations have evolved from global- to location-specific indices tailored to tourists' recreational behavior. Unfortunately, as indices become increasingly specific, they are less translatable across geographies because they may only apply to specific activities, locales, climates, or populations. A key need in the future development of weather and climate indices for tourism has been a translatable, meteorologically based index capturing the generalized ambient atmospheric conditions yet considering local climatology. To address this need, this paper tests the applicability of the spatial synoptic classification (SSC) as a tool to predict visitor attendance response in the tourism, recreation, and leisure (TRL) sector across different climate regimes. Daily attendance data is paired with the prevailing synoptic weather condition at Atlanta and Indianapolis zoological parks from September 2001 to June 2011, to review potential impacts ambient atmospheric conditions may have on visitor attendances. Results indicate that "dry moderate" conditions are most associated with high levels of attendance and "moist polar" synoptic conditions are most associated with low levels of attendance at both zoological parks. Comparing visitor response at these zoo locations, visitors in Indianapolis showed lower levels of tolerance to synoptic conditions which were not "ideal." Visitors in Indianapolis also displayed more aversion to "polar" synoptic regimes while visitors in Atlanta displayed more tolerance to "moist tropical" synoptic regimes. Using a comprehensive atmospheric measure such as the SSC may be a key to broadening application when assessing tourism climates across diverse geographies.

The influence of synoptic weather regimes on UK air quality: regional model studies of tropospheric column NO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, R. J.; Savage, N. H.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Ordóñez, C.; Neal, L. S.

2015-07-01

Synoptic meteorology can have a significant influence on UK air quality. Cyclonic (anticyclonic) conditions lead to the dispersion (accumulation) of air pollutants away from (over) source regions. Meteorology also modifies atmospheric chemistry processes such as photolysis and wet deposition. Previous studies have shown a relationship between observed satellite tropospheric column NO2 and synoptic meteorology in different seasons. Here, we test whether the UK Met Office Air Quality in the Unified Model (AQUM) can reproduce these observations and then use the model to determine the controlling factors. We show that AQUM successfully captures the observed relationships, when sampled under the Lamb Weather Types, an objective classification of midday UK circulation patterns. By using a range of idealised NOx-like tracers with different e-folding lifetimes, we show that under different synoptic regimes the NO2 lifetime in AQUM is approximately 6 h in summer and 12 h in winter. The longer lifetime can explain why synoptic spatial column NO2 variations are more significant in winter compared to summer, due to less NO2 photochemical loss. We also show that cyclonic conditions have more seasonality in column NO2 than anticyclonic conditions as they result in more extreme spatial departures from the wintertime seasonal average. Within a season (summer or winter) under different synoptic regimes, a large proportion of the spatial pattern in the UK column NO2 field can be explained by the idealised model tracers, showing that transport is an important factor in governing the variability of UK air quality on seasonal synoptic timescales.

Using synoptic weather types to predict visitor attendance at Atlanta and Indianapolis zoological parks.

PubMed

Perkins, David R

2018-01-01

Defining an ideal "tourism climate" has been an often-visited research topic where explanations have evolved from global- to location-specific indices tailored to tourists' recreational behavior. Unfortunately, as indices become increasingly specific, they are less translatable across geographies because they may only apply to specific activities, locales, climates, or populations. A key need in the future development of weather and climate indices for tourism has been a translatable, meteorologically based index capturing the generalized ambient atmospheric conditions yet considering local climatology. To address this need, this paper tests the applicability of the spatial synoptic classification (SSC) as a tool to predict visitor attendance response in the tourism, recreation, and leisure (TRL) sector across different climate regimes. Daily attendance data is paired with the prevailing synoptic weather condition at Atlanta and Indianapolis zoological parks from September 2001 to June 2011, to review potential impacts ambient atmospheric conditions may have on visitor attendances. Results indicate that "dry moderate" conditions are most associated with high levels of attendance and "moist polar" synoptic conditions are most associated with low levels of attendance at both zoological parks. Comparing visitor response at these zoo locations, visitors in Indianapolis showed lower levels of tolerance to synoptic conditions which were not "ideal." Visitors in Indianapolis also displayed more aversion to "polar" synoptic regimes while visitors in Atlanta displayed more tolerance to "moist tropical" synoptic regimes. Using a comprehensive atmospheric measure such as the SSC may be a key to broadening application when assessing tourism climates across diverse geographies.

Discrimination of tornadic and non-tornadic severe weather outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercer, Andrew Edward

Outbreaks of severe weather affect the majority of the conterminous United States. An outbreak is characterized by multiple severe weather occurrences within a single synoptic system. Outbreaks can be categorized by whether or not they produce tornadoes. It is hypothesized that the antecedent synoptic signal contains important information about outbreak type. Accordingly, the scope of this research is to determine the extent that the synoptic signal can be utilized to classify outbreak type at various lead times. Outbreak types are classified using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, which are arranged on a global 2.5° latitude-longitude grid, include 17 vertical pressure levels, and span from 1948 to the present (2008). Fifty major tornado outbreak (TO) cases and fifty major non-tornadic severe weather outbreak (NTO) cases are selected for this work. Two types of analyses are performed on these cases to assess discrimination ability. One analysis involves outbreak classification using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialized with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset. Meteorological covariates are computed from the WRF output and used in training and testing of statistical classification models. The covariate fields are depicted on a 21 X 21 gridpoint field with an 18 km grid spacing centered on the outbreak. Covariates with large discrimination potential are determined using permutation testing. A P-mode principal component analysis (PCA) is used on the subset of covariates determined by permutation testing to reduce data dimensionality, since numerous redundancies exist in the initial covariate set. Three statistical classification models are trained and tested with the resulting PC scores: a support vector machine (SVM), a logistic regression model (LogR), and a multiple linear regression model (LR). Promising results emerge from these methods, as a probability of detection (POD) of 0.89 and a false alarm ratio (FAR) of 0.13 are obtained from the best discriminating statistical technique (SVM) at 24-hours lead time. Results degrade only slightly by 72-hours lead time (maximum POD of 0.833 and minimum FAR of 0.276). Synoptic composites of the outbreak types are the second analysis considered. Composites are used to reveal synoptic features of outbreak types, which can be utilized to diagnose the differences between classes (in this case, TOs and NTOs). The composites are created using PCA. Five raw variables, height, temperature, relative humidity, and u and v wind components, are extracted from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for North America. Converging longitude lines with increasing latitude on the reanalysis grid introduce bias into correlation calculations in higher latitudes; hence, the data are mapped onto both a latitudinal density grid and a Fibonacci grid. The resulting PCA produces two significant principal components (PCs), and a cluster analysis on these PCs for each outbreak type results in two types of TOs and NTOs. TO composites are characterized by a trough of low pressure over the central United States and major quasigeostrophic forcing features such as an upper level jet streak, cyclonic vorticity advection increasing with height, and warm air advection. These dynamics result in a strong surface cyclone in most tornado outbreaks. These features are considerably less pronounced in NTOs. The statistical analyses presented herein were successful in classifying outbreak types at various lead times, using synoptic scale data as input.

Snowfall in the Northwest Iberian Peninsula: Synoptic Circulation Patterns and Their Influence on Snow Day Trends

PubMed Central

Merino, Andrés; Fernández, Sergio; Hermida, Lucía; López, Laura; Sánchez, José Luis; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Gascón, Estíbaliz

2014-01-01

In recent decades, a decrease in snowfall attributed to the effects of global warming (among other causes) has become evident. However, it is reasonable to investigate meteorological causes for such decrease, by analyzing changes in synoptic scale patterns. On the Iberian Peninsula, the Castilla y León region in the northwest consists of a central plateau surrounded by mountain ranges. This creates snowfalls that are considered both an important water resource and a transportation risk. In this work, we develop a classification of synoptic situations that produced important snowfalls at observation stations in the major cities of Castilla y León from 1960 to 2011. We used principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster techniques to define four synoptic patterns conducive to snowfall in the region. Once we confirmed homogeneity of the series and serial correlation of the snowfallday records at the stations from 1960 to 2011, we carried out a Mann-Kendall test. The results show a negative trend at most stations, so there are a decreased number of snowfall days. Finally, variations in these meteorological variables were related to changes in the frequencies of snow events belonging to each synoptic pattern favorable for snowfall production at the observatory locations. PMID:25152912

Atmospheric circulation patterns and spatial climatic variations in Beringia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mock, Cary J.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Patricia M.

1998-08-01

Analyses of more than 40 years of climatic data reveal intriguing spatial variations in climatic patterns for Beringia (North-eastern Siberia and Alaska), aiding the understanding of the hierarchy of climatic controls that operate at different spatial scales within the Arctic. A synoptic climatology, using a subjective classification methodology on January and July sea level pressure, and July 500 hPa height anomaly patterns, identified 13 major atmospheric circulation patterns (26 pairs consisting of 13 synoptic/temperature and 13 synoptic/precipitation comparisons) that occur over Beringia. Composite anomaly maps of circulation, temperature, and precipitation described the spatial variability of surface climatic responses to circulation. Results indicate that nine synoptic pairs yield homogeneous surface climatic anomaly patterns throughout most of Beringia. However, many of the surface climatic responses illustrate heterogeneous anomaly patterns as a result of variations in circulation controls, such as troughing over East Asia and the Pacific subtropical high superimposed over topography, with small shifts in atmospheric circulation dramatically altering spatial variations of anomaly patterns. Distinctive contrasts in climatic responses, as suggested from ten synoptic pairs, are clearly evident for Western Beringia versus Eastern Beringia. These results offer important implications for scholars interested in assessing late Quaternary climatic change in the region from interannual to millennial timescales.

The influence of synoptic weather regimes on UK air quality: regional model studies of tropospheric column NO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, R. J.; Savage, N. H.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Ordóñez, C.; Neal, L. S.

2015-10-01

Synoptic meteorology can have a significant influence on UK air quality. Cyclonic conditions lead to the dispersion of air pollutants away from source regions, while anticyclonic conditions lead to their accumulation over source regions. Meteorology also modifies atmospheric chemistry processes such as photolysis and wet deposition. Previous studies have shown a relationship between observed satellite tropospheric column NO2 and synoptic meteorology in different seasons. Here, we test whether the UK Met Office Air Quality in the Unified Model (AQUM) can reproduce these observations and then use the model to explore the relative importance of various factors. We show that AQUM successfully captures the observed relationships when sampled under the Lamb weather types, an objective classification of midday UK circulation patterns. By using a range of idealized NOx-like tracers with different e-folding lifetimes, we show that under different synoptic regimes the NO2 lifetime in AQUM is approximately 6 h in summer and 12 h in winter. The longer lifetime can explain why synoptic spatial tropospheric column NO2 variations are more significant in winter compared to summer, due to less NO2 photochemical loss. We also show that cyclonic conditions have more seasonality in tropospheric column NO2 than anticyclonic conditions as they result in more extreme spatial departures from the wintertime seasonal average. Within a season (summer or winter) under different synoptic regimes, a large proportion of the spatial pattern in the UK tropospheric column NO2 field can be explained by the idealized model tracers, showing that transport is an important factor in governing the variability of UK air quality on seasonal synoptic timescales.

The spectrum of progressive derecho formation environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guastini, Corey T.

Progressive derechos are severe mesoscale convective systems that often form east of the Rocky Mountains during the warm season (May--August) and cause, by definition, straight-line wind damage along paths upwards of 400 km long. This study develops a subjective, seven-category classification scheme that spans the spectrum of progressive derecho formation environments from those dominated by robust upper-level ridges to those characterized by vigorous upper-level troughs. A climatology of 256 progressive derecho events is created for 1996--2013 and is categorized according to the developed classification scheme. Derecho initiation-relative composites are constructed for each of the seven groups using 0.5° Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data to document the environmental characteristics unique to each group as well as those shared among them. Finally, two in-depth case studies and five cursory case studies provide examples of the seven categories and reveal important nuances in mesoscale dynamic and thermodynamic structure inherent to all derecho cases. Results of the climatology show progressive derecho activity increases from 1 May through 1 July before decreasing again through the end of August and follows a northward trend in latitude from 1 May through 1 August before shifting slightly southward through the end of the warm season. Upslope flow in the vicinity of the Rocky Mountains initiates 28 percent of progressive derechos, upper-level troughs initiate 20 percent, 47 percent form in benign synoptic environments, and 5 percent are unclassifiable. Composite results show all progressive derecho initiation environments are marked by a long axis of instability caused by the overlap of high atmospheric moisture content and steep midlevel lapse rates, but the relative positions and strengths of upper-level troughs and ridges are crucial in determining how the instability axis develops and what its orientation in space will be. Case studies reveal instability axes forming in benign synoptic environments are generally zonally oriented and mainly the result of convergence of low-level moisture, whereas stronger synoptic-scale forcing forms meridionally oriented instability axes through the northward advection of Gulf moisture. The length and magnitude of these instability axes largely determines the duration and severity of a given progressive derecho.

Water quality, sediment quality, and stream-channel classification of Rock Creek, Washington, D.C., 1999-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Anita L.; Miller, Cherie V.; Olsen, Lisa D.; Doheny, Edward J.; Phelan, Daniel J.

2002-01-01

Rock Creek Park is within the National Capital Region in Washington, D.C., and is maintained by the National Park Service. Part of Montgomery County, Maryland, and part of the District of Columbia drain into Rock Creek, which is a tributary of the Potomac River. Water quality in Rock Creek is important to biotic life in and near the creek, and in the Potomac River Basin and the Chesapeake Bay. The water quality of the Rock Creek Basin has been affected by continued urban and agricultural growth and development. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, investigated water quality and sediment quality in Rock Creek over a 2-year period (1998?2000), and performed a stream-channel classification to determine the distribution of bottom sediment in Rock Creek. This report presents and evaluates water quality and bottom sediment in Rock Creek for water years 1999 (October 1, 1998 to September 30, 1999) and 2000 (October 1, 1999 to September 30, 2000). A synoptic surface-water assessment was conducted at five stations from June 23 to June 25, 1999, a temporal surface-water assessment was conducted at one station from February 18, 1999 to September 26, 2000, and bed-sediment samples were collected and assessed from three stations from August 17 to August 19, 1999. The synoptic surface-water assessment included pesticides (parent compounds and selected transformation products), field parameters, nutrients, and major ions. The temporal surface-water assessment included pesticides (parent compounds and selected transformation products) and field parameters. The bed-sediment assessment included trace elements and organic compounds (including low- and high-molecular weight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, poly-chlorinated biphenyls, pesticides, and phthalates). Some, but not all, of the pesticides known to be used in the area were included in the synoptic water-quality assessment, the temporal water-quality assessment, and the bed-sediment assessment. In addition to the water-quality and sediment-quality assessments, a Rosgen stream-channel classification was performed on a 900-foot-long segment of Rock Creek. In the synoptic water-quality assessment, two pesticides were found to be above published criteria for the protection of aquatic life. In the temporal water-quality assessment, four pesticides were found to be above published criteria for the protection of aquatic life. In the bed-sediment assessment, 8 trace elements, 14 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, 6 pesticides, and 1 phthalate compound were found to be above published criteria for the protection of aquatic life. In the Rosgen classification, a comparison to a previous classification for this segment showed an increase in sands and other fine-grained sediments in the creek bed.

An investigation of relationships between meso- and synoptic-scale phenomena

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scoggins, J. R.; Wood, J. E.; Fuelberg, H. E.; Read, W. L.

1972-01-01

Methods based on the vorticity equation, the adiabatic method, the curvature of the vertical wind profile, and the structure of synoptic waves are used to determine areas of positive vertical motion in the mid-troposphere for a period in each season. Parameters indicative of low-level moisture and conditional instability are areas in which mesoscale systems may be present. The best association between mesoscale and synoptic-scale phenomena was found for a period during December when synoptic-scale systems were well developed. A good association between meso- and synoptic-scale events also was found for a period during March, while the poorest association was found for a June period. Daytime surface heating apparently is an important factor in the formation of mesoscale systems during the summer. It is concluded that the formation of mesoscale phenomena may be determined essentially from synoptic-scale conditions during winter, late fall, and early spring.

Combining dispersion modelling with synoptic patterns to understand the wind-borne transport into the UK of the bluetongue disease vector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burgin, Laura; Ekström, Marie; Dessai, Suraje

2017-07-01

Bluetongue, an economically important animal disease, can be spread over long distances by carriage of insect vectors ( Culicoides biting midges) on the wind. The weather conditions which influence the midge's flight are controlled by synoptic scale atmospheric circulations. A method is proposed that links wind-borne dispersion of the insects to synoptic circulation through the use of a dispersion model in combination with principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis. We illustrate how to identify the main synoptic situations present during times of midge incursions into the UK from the European continent. A PCA was conducted on high-pass-filtered mean sea-level pressure data for a domain centred over north-west Europe from 2005 to 2007. A clustering algorithm applied to the PCA scores indicated the data should be divided into five classes for which averages were calculated, providing a classification of the main synoptic types present. Midge incursion events were found to mainly occur in two synoptic categories; 64.8% were associated with a pattern displaying a pressure gradient over the North Atlantic leading to moderate south-westerly flow over the UK and 17.9% of the events occurred when high pressure dominated the region leading to south-easterly or easterly winds. The winds indicated by the pressure maps generally compared well against observations from a surface station and analysis charts. This technique could be used to assess frequency and timings of incursions of virus into new areas on seasonal and decadal timescales, currently not possible with other dispersion or biological modelling methods.

Development of Teaching Materials for Field Identification of Plants and Analysis of Their Effectiveness in Science Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ohkawa, Chizuru

2000-01-01

Introduces teaching materials developed for field identification of plants with synoptical keys, identification tables, cards, and programs. Selects approximately 2000 seed plants and uses visibly identifiable characteristics for classification. Recommends using the methodology of identification in other areas for biological identification. (YDS)

Comparing exposure metrics for classifying ‘dangerous heat’ in heat wave and health warning systems

PubMed Central

Zhang, Kai; Rood, Richard B.; Michailidis, George; Oswald, Evan M.; Schwartz, Joel D.; Zanobetti, Antonella; Ebi, Kristie L.; O’Neill, Marie S.

2012-01-01

Heat waves have been linked to excess mortality and morbidity, and are projected to increase in frequency and intensity with a warming climate. This study compares exposure metrics to trigger heat wave and health warning systems (HHWS), and introduces a novel multi-level hybrid clustering method to identify potential dangerously hot days. Two-level and three-level hybrid clustering analysis as well as common indices used to trigger HHWS, including spatial synoptic classification (SSC); and 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles of minimum and relative minimum temperature (using a 10 day reference period), were calculated using a summertime weather dataset in Detroit from 1976 to 2006. The days classified as ‘hot’ with hybrid clustering analysis, SSC, minimum and relative minimum temperature methods differed by method type. SSC tended to include the days with, on average, 2.6 °C lower daily minimum temperature and 5.3 °C lower dew point than days identified by other methods. These metrics were evaluated by comparing their performance in predicting excess daily mortality. The 99th percentile of minimum temperature was generally the most predictive, followed by the three-level hybrid clustering method, the 95th percentile of minimum temperature, SSC and others. Our proposed clustering framework has more flexibility and requires less substantial meteorological prior information than the synoptic classification methods. Comparison of these metrics in predicting excess daily mortality suggests that metrics thought to better characterize physiological heat stress by considering several weather conditions simultaneously may not be the same metrics that are better at predicting heat-related mortality, which has significant implications in HHWSs. PMID:22673187

Improving Prediction of Large-scale Regime Transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyakum, J. R.; Roebber, P.; Bosart, L. F.; Honor, A.; Bunker, E.; Low, Y.; Hart, J.; Bliankinshtein, N.; Kolly, A.; Atallah, E.; Huang, Y.

2017-12-01

Cool season atmospheric predictability over the CONUS on subseasonal times scales (1-4 weeks) is critically dependent upon the structure, configuration, and evolution of the North Pacific jet stream (NPJ). The NPJ can be perturbed on its tropical side on synoptic time scales by recurving and transitioning tropical cyclones (TCs) and on subseasonal time scales by longitudinally varying convection associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Likewise, the NPJ can be perturbed on its poleward side on synoptic time scales by midlatitude and polar disturbances that originate over the Asian continent. These midlatitude and polar disturbances can often trigger downstream Rossby wave propagation across the North Pacific, North America, and the North Atlantic. The project team is investigating the following multiscale processes and features: the spatiotemporal distribution of cyclone clustering over the Northern Hemisphere; cyclone clustering as influenced by atmospheric blocking and the phases and amplitudes of the major teleconnection indices, ENSO and the MJO; composite and case study analyses of representative cyclone clustering events to establish the governing dynamics; regime change predictability horizons associated with cyclone clustering events; Arctic air mass generation and modification; life cycles of the MJO; and poleward heat and moisture transports of subtropical air masses. A critical component of the study is weather regime classification. These classifications are defined through: the spatiotemporal clustering of surface cyclogenesis; a general circulation metric combining data at 500-hPa and the dynamic tropopause; Self Organizing Maps (SOM), constructed from dynamic tropopause and 850 hPa equivalent potential temperature data. The resultant lattice of nodes is used to categorize synoptic classes and their predictability, as well as to determine the robustness of the CFSv2 model climate relative to observations. Transition pathways between these synoptic classes, both in the observations and the CFSv2, are investigated. At a future point in the project, the results from these multiscale investigations will be integrated in the form of a prediction tool for important variables (temperatures, precipitation and their extremes) for the 1-4 week timeframe.

Analysis of Synoptic Weather Types and Its Influence on Precipitation in the Marmara Region (NW Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baltaci, H.; Kindap, T.; Unal, A.; Karaca, M.

2012-04-01

In this study, we investigated the relationship between synoptic weather types and rainfall patterns in the Marmara region, northwestern part of Turkey. For this purpose, the automated Lamb weather type classification method was applied to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily mean sea level pressure data for the period between 2001 and 2010. Ten synoptic weather types were found that represent the 90% of the synoptic patterns that affect the Marmara region. Based on the annual frequency analysis, mainly six synoptic weather types, 24% (NorthEast), 21% (North), 11% (South), 9% (SouthWest), 7% (Anticyclonic), 5% (Cyclonic), were found dominant in the region. Multiple comparison tests suggest that (i.e., Bonferroni test) northerly patterns (i.e., North and NorthEast) have statistically significantly higher percentages as compared to the southerly (i.e., South and SouthWest) and the rest of the patterns (i.e., Anticylonic and Cylonic). During winter months, N- and NE-patterns observed less frequently than the annual frequencies of them, 18% and 13% of the period, respectively. On the other hand, due to the formation of the low pressure center located over the central Mediterranean Sea, S- and SW-patterns were observed more frequently than their annual mean frequencies, 16% and 17%, respectively. During summer months, N- and NE-patterns become dominant in the region, and they constitute about three quarters of the period, 25% and 44%, respectively. The low pressure center located over central Anatolia and Black Sea brings moist and cool air to the region, preventing excessive heating during the summer season. Cyclonic patterns observed less frequent during the winter and fall months, about 3%. They become more frequent during the summer season, 9% as a result of the shifting of the subtropical jet stream to the south, and the seasonal movement of the Basra low pressure toward the inner and northern parts of the Anatolian peninsula. On the other hand, Anticyclonic patterns are more common in the fall season 11% due to the expansion of spatial extent of the anticyclone center located over the Caspian Sea. Daily precipitation records for the period of between 2001 and 2010 belong to 14 meteorological stations in the region were investigated to understand the influence of synoptic weather types on precipitation. Based on daily precipitation records, about one-third of the NE-patterns result in precipitation which is slightly larger than patterns from other directions. The corresponding values for SW-, N- and S-patterns are 29%, 25% and 25%, respectively. Northerly patterns (N and NE) causes more frequent precipitation on the northern and eastern parts of the region. On the other hand, southerly patterns (S and SW) are more influential and cause more frequent precipitation on the south and northwestern parts of the region. Therefore, frequency of synoptic weather types and daily precipitation records suggest that precipitation regimes are of a different nature in northern and southern parts of the Marmara region. Keywords Synoptic weather types; Marmara Region; Lamb classification; Rainfall patterns

A synoptic climatology of derecho producing mesoscale convective systems in the North-Central Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bentley, Mace L.; Mote, Thomas L.; Byrd, Stephen F.

2000-09-01

Synoptic-scale environments favourable for producing derechos, or widespread convectively induced windstorms, in the North-Central Plains are examined with the goal of providing pattern-recognition/diagnosis techniques. Fifteen derechos were identified across the North-Central Plains region during 1986-1995. The synoptic environment at the initiation, mid-point and decay of each derecho was then evaluated using surface, upper-air and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis datasets.Results suggest that the synoptic environment is critical in maintaining derecho producing mesoscale convective systems (DMCSs). The synoptic environment in place downstream of the MCS initiation region determines the movement and potential strength of the system. Circulation around surface low pressure increased the instability gradient and maximized leading edge convergence in the initiation region of nearly all events regardless of DMCS location or movement. Other commonalities in the environments of these events include the presence of a weak thermal boundary, high convective instability and a layer of dry low-to-mid-tropospheric air. Of the two corridors sampled, northeastward moving derechos tend to initiate east of synoptic-scale troughs, while southeastward moving derechos form on the northeast periphery of a synoptic-scale ridge. Other differences between these two DMCS events are also discussed.

Assessment of mesoscale convective systems using IR brightness temperature in the southwest of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafati, Somayeh; Karimi, Mostafa

2017-07-01

In this research, the spatial and temporal distribution of Mesoscale Convective Systems was assessed in the southwest of Iran using Global merged satellite IR brightness temperature (acquired from Meteosat, GOES, and GMS geostationary satellites) and synoptic station data. Event days were selected using a set of storm reports and precipitation criteria. The following criteria are used to determine the days with occurrence of convective systems: (1) at least one station reported 6-h precipitation exceeding 10 mm and (2) at least three stations reported phenomena related to convection (thunderstorm, lightning, and shower). MCSs were detected based on brightness temperature, maximum areal extent, and duration thresholds (228 K, 10,000 km2, and 3 h, respectively). An MCS occurrence classification system is developed based on mean sea level, 850 and 500 hPa pressure patterns.

Machine-learning-based Brokers for Real-time Classification of the LSST Alert Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narayan, Gautham; Zaidi, Tayeb; Soraisam, Monika D.; Wang, Zhe; Lochner, Michelle; Matheson, Thomas; Saha, Abhijit; Yang, Shuo; Zhao, Zhenge; Kececioglu, John; Scheidegger, Carlos; Snodgrass, Richard T.; Axelrod, Tim; Jenness, Tim; Maier, Robert S.; Ridgway, Stephen T.; Seaman, Robert L.; Evans, Eric Michael; Singh, Navdeep; Taylor, Clark; Toeniskoetter, Jackson; Welch, Eric; Zhu, Songzhe; The ANTARES Collaboration

2018-05-01

The unprecedented volume and rate of transient events that will be discovered by the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) demand that the astronomical community update its follow-up paradigm. Alert-brokers—automated software system to sift through, characterize, annotate, and prioritize events for follow-up—will be critical tools for managing alert streams in the LSST era. The Arizona-NOAO Temporal Analysis and Response to Events System (ANTARES) is one such broker. In this work, we develop a machine learning pipeline to characterize and classify variable and transient sources only using the available multiband optical photometry. We describe three illustrative stages of the pipeline, serving the three goals of early, intermediate, and retrospective classification of alerts. The first takes the form of variable versus transient categorization, the second a multiclass typing of the combined variable and transient data set, and the third a purity-driven subtyping of a transient class. Although several similar algorithms have proven themselves in simulations, we validate their performance on real observations for the first time. We quantitatively evaluate our pipeline on sparse, unevenly sampled, heteroskedastic data from various existing observational campaigns, and demonstrate very competitive classification performance. We describe our progress toward adapting the pipeline developed in this work into a real-time broker working on live alert streams from time-domain surveys.

Innovative use of self-organising maps (SOMs) in model validation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jolly, Ben; McDonald, Adrian; Coggins, Jack

2016-04-01

We present an innovative combination of techniques for validation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) output against both observations and reanalyses using two classification schemes, demonstrated by a validation of the operational NWP 'AMPS' (the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System). Historically, model validation techniques have centred on case studies or statistics at various time scales (yearly/seasonal/monthly). Within the past decade the latter technique has been expanded by the addition of classification schemes in place of time scales, allowing more precise analysis. Classifications are typically generated for either the model or the observations, then used to create composites for both which are compared. Our method creates and trains a single self-organising map (SOM) on both the model output and observations, which is then used to classify both datasets using the same class definitions. In addition to the standard statistics on class composites, we compare the classifications themselves between the model and the observations. To add further context to the area studied, we use the same techniques to compare the SOM classifications with regimes developed for another study to great effect. The AMPS validation study compares model output against surface observations from SNOWWEB and existing University of Wisconsin-Madison Antarctic Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) during two months over the austral summer of 2014-15. Twelve SOM classes were defined in a '4 x 3' pattern, trained on both model output and observations of 2 m wind components, then used to classify both training datasets. Simple statistics (correlation, bias and normalised root-mean-square-difference) computed for SOM class composites showed that AMPS performed well during extreme weather events, but less well during lighter winds and poorly during the more changeable conditions between either extreme. Comparison of the classification time-series showed that, while correlations were lower during lighter wind periods, AMPS actually forecast the existence of those periods well suggesting that the correlations may be unfairly low. Further investigation showed poor temporal alignment during more changeable conditions, highlighting problems AMPS has around the exact timing of events. There was also a tendency for AMPS to over-predict certain wind flow patterns at the expense of others. In order to gain a larger scale perspective, we compared our mesoscale SOM classification time-series with synoptic scale regimes developed by another study using ERA-Interim reanalysis output and k-means clustering. There was good alignment between the regimes and the observations classifications (observations/regimes), highlighting the effect of synoptic scale forcing on the area. However, comparing the alignment between observations/regimes and AMPS/regimes showed that AMPS may have problems accurately resolving the strength and location of cyclones in the Ross Sea to the north of the target area.

Comparison of the Climates of Selected Locations in the United States with the Climate of Beersheba, Israel.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-01-01

INTRODUCTION .. ...... . . . .. .. .. .... 1 II. THE CLIMATE OF BEERSHEBA .............. 3 A. KZ~ppen Classification. ............. 3 B. Synoptic Features...Local Mean Solar Time. ............. 18 B. Period of Observation .. ........... 20 C. Statistical Calculations. .......... 20 1. Introduction ...157 vi I. INTRODUCTION Battlefield obscuration plays an important role in the performance of Army electro-optical devices. In turn, the type

Classification of weather patterns to study the influence of meteorological characteristics on PM2.5 concentrations in Yunlin County, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Chia-Hua; Cheng, Fang-Yi

2016-11-01

Yunlin County is located in the central part of western Taiwan with major emissions from the Mailiao industrial park, the Taichung Power Plants and heavy traffic. In order to understand the influence of meteorological conditions on PM2.5 concentrations in Yunlin County, we applied a two-stage cluster analysis method using the daily averaged surface winds from four air quality monitoring stations in Yunlin County to classify the weather pattern. The study period includes 1095 days from Jan 2013 to December 2015. The classification results show that the low PM2.5 concentration occurs when the synoptic weather in Taiwan is affected by the strong southwesterly monsoonal flow. The high PM2.5 concentration occurs when Taiwan is under the influence of weak synoptic weather conditions and continental high-pressure peripheral circulation. A high PM2.5 event was studied and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model was performed. The result indicated that due to being blocked by the Central Mountain Range, Yunlin County, which is situated on the leeside of the mountains, exhibits low wind speed and strong subsidence behavior that favors PM2.5 accumulation.

Synoptic Drivers of Precipitation in the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, L.; Hudson, S.; Graham, R.; Renwick, J. A.

2017-12-01

Precipitation in the Arctic has been shown to be increasing in recent decades, from both observational and modelling studies, with largest trends seen in autumn and winter. This trend is attributed to a combination of the warming atmosphere and reduced sea ice extent. The seasonality of precipitation in the Arctic is important as it largely determines whether the precipitation falls as snow or rain. This study assesses the spatial and temporal variability of the synoptic drivers of precipitation in the Atlantic (European) sector of the Arctic. This region of the Arctic is of particular interest as it has the largest inter-annual variability in sea ice extent and is the primary pathway for moisture transport into the Arctic from lower latitudes. This study uses the ECMWF ERA-I reanalysis total precipitation to compare to long-term precipitation observations from Ny Ålesund, Svalbard to show that the reanalysis captures the synoptic variability of precipitation well and that most precipitation in this region is synoptically driven. The annual variability of precipitation in the Atlantic Arctic shows strong regionality. In the Svalbard and Barents Sea region, most of the annual total precipitation occurs during autumn and winter (Oct-Mar) (>60% of annual total), while the high-Arctic (> 80N) and Kara Sea receives most of the annual precipitation ( 60% of annual total) during summer (July-Sept). Using a synoptic classification developed for this region, this study shows that winter precipitation is driven by winter cyclone occurrence, with strong correlations to the AO and NAO indices. High precipitation over Svalbard is also strongly correlated with the Scandinavian blocking pattern, which produces a southerly flow in the Greenland Sea/Svalbard area. An increasing occurrence of these synoptic patterns are seen for winter months (Nov and Jan), which may explain much of the observed winter increase in precipitation.

Evaluation of the synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koch, S. E.; Skillman, W. C.; Kocin, P. J.; Wetzel, P. J.; Brill, K.; Keyser, D. A.; Mccumber, M. C.

1983-01-01

The overall performance characteristics of a limited area, hydrostatic, fine (52 km) mesh, primitive equation, numerical weather prediction model are determined in anticipation of satellite data assimilations with the model. The synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of version 2.0 of this model, the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS 2.0), were evaluated. The two part study is based on a sample of approximately thirty 12h and 24h forecasts of atmospheric flow patterns during spring and early summer. The synoptic scale evaluation results benchmark the performance of MASS 2.0 against that of an operational, synoptic scale weather prediction model, the Limited area Fine Mesh (LFM). The large sample allows for the calculation of statistically significant measures of forecast accuracy and the determination of systematic model errors. The synoptic scale benchmark is required before unsmoothed mesoscale forecast fields can be seriously considered.

A Precipitation Climatology of the Snowy Mountains, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theobald, Alison; McGowan, Hamish; Speirs, Johanna

2014-05-01

The precipitation that falls in the Snowy Mountains region of southeastern Australia provides critical water resources for hydroelectric power generation. Water storages in this region are also a major source of agricultural irrigation, environmental flows, and offer a degree of flood protection for some of the major river systems in Australia. Despite this importance, there remains a knowledge gap regarding the long-term, historic variability of the synoptic weather systems that deliver precipitation to the region. This research aims to increase the understanding of long-term variations in precipitation-bearing weather systems resulting in runoff into the Snowy Mountains catchments and reservoirs, and the way in which these are influenced by large-scale climate drivers. Here we present initial results on the development of a climatology of precipitation-bearing synoptic weather systems (synoptic typology), spanning a period of over 100 years. The synoptic typology is developed from the numerical weather model re-analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), in conjunction with regional precipitation and temperature data from a network of private gauges. Given the importance of surface, mid- and upper-air patterns on seasonal precipitation, the synoptic typing will be based on a range of meteorological variables throughout the depth of the troposphere, highlighting the importance of different atmospheric levels on the development and steering of synoptic precipitation bearing systems. The temporal and spatial variability of these synoptic systems, their response to teleconnection forcings and their contribution to inflow generation in the headwater catchments of the Snowy Mountains will be investigated. The resulting climatology will provide new understanding of the drivers of regional-scale precipitation variability at inter- and intra-annual timescales. It will enable greater understanding of how variability in synoptic scale atmospheric circulation affects the hydroclimate of alpine environments in southeast Australia - allowing recently observed precipitation declines to be placed in the context of a long-term record spanning at least 100 years. This information will provide further insight into the impacts of predicted anthropogenic climate change and will ultimately lead to more informed water resource management in the Snowy Mountains.

The Synoptic Climatology of Severe Thunderstorms in Manitoba.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ladochy, Stephen Eugene Gabriel

The thesis presents the climatologies for Manitoba thunderstorms, hailstorms and tornadoes as well as investigates the synoptic weather conditions conducive for their development. The study not only uses standard meteorological information, but also various kinds of proxy data, in the form of damage reports. These damage reports complement the meteorological data by providing a higher resolution of observations, particularly in the sparsely populated regions. The synoptic conditions are relatively similar for all forms of severe thunderstorms, though the upper level jet stream (ULJ) is stronger for tornadoes, in general. Composite charts, drawn for 50 larger, more damaging hail days and 48 tornado days in the 1970's, helped identify important surface and upper air weather parameters and their inter -relationships with each other and the location of the storm. Time sequence composite charts were used to also show the development process in severe weather occurrences. From the composites, a synoptic weather type classification was devised with 10 categories to identify each storm by type. The most common pattern for severe weather has a strong southwesterly ULJ, with the storm occurring ahead of an advancing cold front. The ULJ patterns were drawn for each synoptic type days, showing differences between categories. The average conditions during tornado touchdowns were also seen from composite maps of surface and upper air isobaric charts. While severe thunderstorms are seen to occur under the "ideal" conditions, often described for U.S. severe weather, they can also be produced under other weather patterns and combinations of atmospheric parameters thought less favorable. The ULJ and LLJ (low-level jet stream) models used in U.S. studies do not always fit Manitoba storms, however, less favorable jet positions, at specific levels, can be compensated for by low-level advection of warm, and moist air.

Non-parametric transient classification using adaptive wavelets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varughese, Melvin M.; von Sachs, Rainer; Stephanou, Michael; Bassett, Bruce A.

2015-11-01

Classifying transients based on multiband light curves is a challenging but crucial problem in the era of GAIA and Large Synoptic Sky Telescope since the sheer volume of transients will make spectroscopic classification unfeasible. We present a non-parametric classifier that predicts the transient's class given training data. It implements two novel components: the use of the BAGIDIS wavelet methodology - a characterization of functional data using hierarchical wavelet coefficients - as well as the introduction of a ranked probability classifier on the wavelet coefficients that handles both the heteroscedasticity of the data in addition to the potential non-representativity of the training set. The classifier is simple to implement while a major advantage of the BAGIDIS wavelets is that they are translation invariant. Hence, BAGIDIS does not need the light curves to be aligned to extract features. Further, BAGIDIS is non-parametric so it can be used effectively in blind searches for new objects. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our classifier against the Supernova Photometric Classification Challenge to correctly classify supernova light curves as Type Ia or non-Ia. We train our classifier on the spectroscopically confirmed subsample (which is not representative) and show that it works well for supernova with observed light-curve time spans greater than 100 d (roughly 55 per cent of the data set). For such data, we obtain a Ia efficiency of 80.5 per cent and a purity of 82.4 per cent, yielding a highly competitive challenge score of 0.49. This indicates that our `model-blind' approach may be particularly suitable for the general classification of astronomical transients in the era of large synoptic sky surveys.

Synoptic scale forecast skill and systematic errors in the MASS 2.0 model. [Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koch, S. E.; Skillman, W. C.; Kocin, P. J.; Wetzel, P. J.; Brill, K. F.

1985-01-01

The synoptic scale performance characteristics of MASS 2.0 are determined by comparing filtered 12-24 hr model forecasts to same-case forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's synoptic-scale Limited-area Fine Mesh model. Characteristics of the two systems are contrasted, and the analysis methodology used to determine statistical skill scores and systematic errors is described. The overall relative performance of the two models in the sample is documented, and important systematic errors uncovered are presented.

Supernova Photometric Lightcurve Classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaidi, Tayeb; Narayan, Gautham

2016-01-01

This is a preliminary report on photometric supernova classification. We first explore the properties of supernova light curves, and attempt to restructure the unevenly sampled and sparse data from assorted datasets to allow for processing and classification. The data was primarily drawn from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) simulated data, created for the Supernova Photometric Classification Challenge. This poster shows a method for producing a non-parametric representation of the light curve data, and applying a Random Forest classifier algorithm to distinguish between supernovae types. We examine the impact of Principal Component Analysis to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset, for future classification work. The classification code will be used in a stage of the ANTARES pipeline, created for use on the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope alert data and other wide-field surveys. The final figure-of-merit for the DES data in the r band was 60% for binary classification (Type I vs II).Zaidi was supported by the NOAO/KPNO Research Experiences for Undergraduates (REU) Program which is funded by the National Science Foundation Research Experiences for Undergraduates Program (AST-1262829).

Impact of large-scale dynamics on the microphysical properties of midlatitude cirrus

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muhlbauer, Andreas; Ackerman, Thomas P.; Comstock, Jennifer M.

2014-04-16

In situ microphysical observations 3 of mid-latitude cirrus collected during the Department of Energy Small Particles in Cirrus (SPAR-TICUS) field campaign are combined with an atmospheric state classification for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site to understand statistical relationships between cirrus microphysics and the large-scale meteorology. The atmospheric state classification is informed about the large-scale meteorology and state of cloudiness at the ARM SGP site by combining ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data with 14 years of continuous observations from the millimeter-wavelength cloud radar. Almost half of the cirrus cloud occurrences in the vicinity of the ARM SGPmore » site during SPARTICUS can be explained by three distinct synoptic condi- tions, namely upper-level ridges, mid-latitude cyclones with frontal systems and subtropical flows. Probability density functions (PDFs) of cirrus micro- physical properties such as particle size distributions (PSDs), ice number con- centrations and ice water content (IWC) are examined and exhibit striking differences among the different synoptic regimes. Generally, narrower PSDs with lower IWC but higher ice number concentrations are found in cirrus sam- pled in upper-level ridges whereas cirrus sampled in subtropical flows, fronts and aged anvils show broader PSDs with considerably lower ice number con- centrations but higher IWC. Despite striking contrasts in the cirrus micro- physics for different large-scale environments, the PDFs of vertical velocity are not different, suggesting that vertical velocity PDFs are a poor predic-tor for explaining the microphysical variability in cirrus. Instead, cirrus mi- crophysical contrasts may be driven by differences in ice supersaturations or aerosols.« less

Dissipation of Energy in a Concentric ER Clutch and its Refined Quasi-Static Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oravský, Vladimír

A concentric electrorheological clutch (ERC) constituting the central part of a broader system: electro-hydro-aggregate (EHA) with an electrodrive (ED) on one side and a loading machine (brake B) on the other side is considered. The corresponding quasi-static model (at constant load and speed) is investigated and refined by insertion of power absorbed by electrorheological fluid (ERF). This increases the number of nondimensional parameters of the model from 8 to 12. Classification of several kinds of dissipation of energy in ERC is presented. Description and analysis of dissipation of the first kind are given more in detail and illustrated by synoptical diagrams. Also two definitions of efficiency of ERC are introduced and discussed.

The use of normalized climatological anomalies to rank synoptic-scale events and their relation to Weather Types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, A. M.; Lorenzo, M. N.; Gimeno, L.; Nieto, R.; Añel, J. A.

2009-09-01

Several methods have been developed to rank meteorological events in terms of severity, social impact or economic impacts. These classifications are not always objective since they depend of several factors, for instance, the observation network is biased towards the densely populated urban areas against rural or oceanic areas. It is also very important to note that not all rare synoptic-scale meteorological events attract significant media attention. In this work we use a comprehensive method of classifying synoptic-scale events adapted from Hart and Grumm, 2001, to the European region (30N-60N, 30W-15E). The main motivation behind this method is that the more unusual the event (a cold outbreak, a heat wave, or a flood), for a given region, the higher ranked it must be. To do so, we use four basic meteorological variables (Height, Temperature, Wind and Specific Humidity) from NCEP reanalysis dataset over the range of 1000hPa to 200hPa at a daily basis from 1948 to 2004. The climatology used embraces the 1961-1990 period. For each variable, the analysis of raking climatological anomalies was computed taking into account the daily normalized departure from climatology at different levels. For each day (from 1948 to 2004) we have four anomaly measures, one for each variable, and another, a combined where the anomaly (total anomaly) is the average of the anomaly of the four variables. Results will be analyzed on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis. Seasonal trends and variability will also be shown. In addition, and given the extent of the database, the expected return periods associated with the anomalies are revealed. Moreover, we also use an automated version of the Lamb weather type (WT) classification scheme (Jones et al, 1993) adapted for the Galicia area (Northwestern corner of the Iberian Peninsula) by Lorenzo et al (2008) in order to compute the daily local circulation regimes in this area. By combining the corresponding daily WT with the five anomaly measures we can evaluate if there is any preferable WT responsible for high or low values of anomalies. Hart, R.E and R.H. Grumm (2001) Using normalized climatological anomalies to rank synoptic-scale events objectivily. Monthly Weather Review, 129, 2426-2442. Jones, P. D., M. Hulme, K. R. Briffa (1993) A comparison of Lamb circulation types with anobjective classification scheme. International Journal of Climatology, 13: 655- 663. Lorenzo M.N., J.J. Taboada and L.Gimeno (2008). Links between circulation weather types and teleconnection patterns and their influence on precipitation patterns in Galicia (NW Spain). International Journal of Climatology 28(11): 1493:1505 DOI: 10.1002/joc.1646.

Effects of synoptic weather on ground-level PM2.5 concentrations in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ying; Zhao, Naizhuo; Vanos, Jennifer K.; Cao, Guofeng

2017-01-01

It is known that individual meteorological factors affect the concentrations of fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5), yet the specific meteorological effects found in previous studies are largely inconsistent and even conflicting. This study investigates influences of daily and short term changes in synoptic weather on ground-level PM2.5 concentrations in a large geographical area (75 cities across the contiguous United States (U.S.)) by using ten-year (2001-2010) spatial synoptic classification (SSC) data. We find that in the spring, summer, and fall the presence of the tropical weather types (i.e., dry-tropical (DT) and moist-tropical (MT)) is likely to associate with significantly higher levels of PM2.5 as compared to an all-weather-type-day average, and the presence of the polar weather types (i.e., dry-polar (DP) and moist-polar (MP)) is associated with significantly lower PM2.5 concentrations. The short-term (day to day) changes in synoptic weather types in a region are also likely to lead to significant variance in PM2.5 concentrations. For example, the largest increase in PM2.5 concentration occurs with the synoptic weather type changing from DP-to-MT. Conversely, a MT-to-DP weather type change results in the largest decrease in PM2.5 concentrations. Compared to air temperature, the effects of atmospheric moisture on PM2.5 concentration tend to be subtle, demonstrating that in conjunction with moderate temperature, neither the dry nor the moist air (except moist-moderate (MM) in summer) are associated with significantly high or low PM2.5 concentrations. Finally, we find that the effects of the synoptic weather type on PM2.5 concentrations may vary for different seasons and geographical areas. These findings suggest that interactions between atmospheric factors and seasonal and/or geographical factors have considerable impacts on the PM2.5 concentrations, and therefore should be considered in addition to the SSC when conducting environment health assessments.

Managing the Big Data Avalanche in Astronomy - Data Mining the Galaxy Zoo Classification Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borne, Kirk D.

2014-01-01

We will summarize a variety of data mining experiments that have been applied to the Galaxy Zoo database of galaxy classifications, which were provided by the volunteer citizen scientists. The goal of these exercises is to learn new and improved classification rules for diverse populations of galaxies, which can then be applied to much larger sky surveys of the future, such as the LSST (Large Synoptic Sky Survey), which is proposed to obtain detailed photometric data for approximately 20 billion galaxies. The massive Big Data that astronomy projects will generate in the future demand greater application of data mining and data science algorithms, as well as greater training of astronomy students in the skills of data mining and data science. The project described here has involved several graduate and undergraduate research assistants at George Mason University.

Plausible Effect of Weather on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation with a Coupled General Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zedong; Wan, Xiuquan

2018-04-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a vital component of the global ocean circulation and the heat engine of the climate system. Through the use of a coupled general circulation model, this study examines the role of synoptic systems on the AMOC and presents evidence that internally generated high-frequency, synoptic-scale weather variability in the atmosphere could play a significant role in maintaining the overall strength and variability of the AMOC, thereby affecting climate variability and change. Results of a novel coupling technique show that the strength and variability of the AMOC are greatly reduced once the synoptic weather variability is suppressed in the coupled model. The strength and variability of the AMOC are closely linked to deep convection events at high latitudes, which could be strongly affected by the weather variability. Our results imply that synoptic weather systems are important in driving the AMOC and its variability. Thus, interactions between atmospheric weather variability and AMOC may be an important feedback mechanism of the global climate system and need to be taken into consideration in future climate change studies.

Spatio-temporal dynamics and synoptic characteristics of wet and drought extremes in Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utkuzova, Dilyara; Khan, Valentina

2015-04-01

Synoptical-statistical analysis has been conducted using SPI index calculated for 478 stations with records from 1966 through 2013. Different parameters of SPI frequency distribution and long-term tendencies were calculated as well as spatial characteristics indicating drought and wetness propagation. Results of analysis demonstrate that during last years there is a tendency of increasing of the intensity of draught and wetness extremes over Russia. There are fewer droughts in the northern regions. The drought propagation for the European territory of Russia is decreasing in June and August, and increasing in July. The situation is opposite for the wetness tendencies. For the Asian territory of Russia, the drought propagation is significantly increasing in July along with decreasing wetness trend. Synoptic conditions favorable for the formation of wet and drought extremes were identified by comparing synoptic charts with the spatial patterns of SPI. For synoptic analysis, episodes of extremely wet (6 episodes for the APR and 7 episodes for the EPR) and drought (6 episodes for the APR and 6 for the EPR) events were classified using A. Katz' typology of weather regimes. For European part of Russia, extreme DROUGHT events are linked to the weather type named "MIXED", for Asian part of Russia - the type "CENTRAL". For European part of Russia, extreme WET events associated with "CENTRAL" type. There is a displacement of the planetary frontal zone into southward direction approximately for 5-25 degrees relatively to normal climatological position during WET extreme events linked to «EASTERN» classification type. Intercomparison of SPI calculated on the base of NOAA NCEP CPC CAMS for the same period and with the resolution 0,5 degree, month precipitation data, Era-Interim Daily fields archive for the period 1979-2014 with the resolution 0,5 degree reanalysis and observational precipitation data was done. The results of comparative analysis has been discussed.

High Altitude Bird Migration at Temperate Latitudes: A Synoptic Perspective on Wind Assistance

PubMed Central

Dokter, Adriaan M.; Shamoun-Baranes, Judy; Kemp, Michael U.; Tijm, Sander; Holleman, Iwan

2013-01-01

At temperate latitudes the synoptic patterns of bird migration are strongly structured by the presence of cyclones and anticyclones, both in the horizontal and altitudinal dimensions. In certain synoptic conditions, birds may efficiently cross regions with opposing surface wind by choosing a higher flight altitude with more favourable wind. We observed migratory passerines at mid-latitudes that selected high altitude wind optima on particular nights, leading to the formation of structured migration layers at varying altitude up to 3 km. Using long-term vertical profiling of bird migration by C-band Doppler radar in the Netherlands, we find that such migration layers occur nearly exclusively during spring migration in the presence of a high-pressure system. A conceptual analytic framework providing insight into the synoptic patterns of wind assistance for migrants that includes the altitudinal dimension has so far been lacking. We present a simple model for a baroclinic atmosphere that relates vertical profiles of wind assistance to the pressure and temperature patterns occurring at temperate latitudes. We show how the magnitude and direction of the large scale horizontal temperature gradient affects the relative gain in wind assistance that migrants obtain through ascending. Temperature gradients typical for northerly high-pressure systems in spring are shown to cause high altitude wind optima in the easterly sectors of anticyclones, thereby explaining the frequent observations of high altitude migration in these synoptic conditions. Given the recurring synoptic arrangements of pressure systems across temperate continents, the opportunities for exploiting high altitude wind will differ between flyways, for example between easterly and westerly oceanic coasts. PMID:23300969

High altitude bird migration at temperate latitudes: a synoptic perspective on wind assistance.

PubMed

Dokter, Adriaan M; Shamoun-Baranes, Judy; Kemp, Michael U; Tijm, Sander; Holleman, Iwan

2013-01-01

At temperate latitudes the synoptic patterns of bird migration are strongly structured by the presence of cyclones and anticyclones, both in the horizontal and altitudinal dimensions. In certain synoptic conditions, birds may efficiently cross regions with opposing surface wind by choosing a higher flight altitude with more favourable wind. We observed migratory passerines at mid-latitudes that selected high altitude wind optima on particular nights, leading to the formation of structured migration layers at varying altitude up to 3 km. Using long-term vertical profiling of bird migration by C-band Doppler radar in the Netherlands, we find that such migration layers occur nearly exclusively during spring migration in the presence of a high-pressure system. A conceptual analytic framework providing insight into the synoptic patterns of wind assistance for migrants that includes the altitudinal dimension has so far been lacking. We present a simple model for a baroclinic atmosphere that relates vertical profiles of wind assistance to the pressure and temperature patterns occurring at temperate latitudes. We show how the magnitude and direction of the large scale horizontal temperature gradient affects the relative gain in wind assistance that migrants obtain through ascending. Temperature gradients typical for northerly high-pressure systems in spring are shown to cause high altitude wind optima in the easterly sectors of anticyclones, thereby explaining the frequent observations of high altitude migration in these synoptic conditions. Given the recurring synoptic arrangements of pressure systems across temperate continents, the opportunities for exploiting high altitude wind will differ between flyways, for example between easterly and westerly oceanic coasts.

Feature-oriented regional modeling and simulations in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangopadhyay, Avijit; Robinson, Allan R.; Haley, Patrick J.; Leslie, Wayne G.; Lozano, Carlos J.; Bisagni, James J.; Yu, Zhitao

2003-03-01

The multiscale synoptic circulation system in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank (GOMGB) region is presented using a feature-oriented approach. Prevalent synoptic circulation structures, or 'features', are identified from previous observational studies. These features include the buoyancy-driven Maine Coastal Current, the Georges Bank anticyclonic frontal circulation system, the basin-scale cyclonic gyres (Jordan, Georges and Wilkinson), the deep inflow through the Northeast Channel (NEC), the shallow outflow via the Great South Channel (GSC), and the shelf-slope front (SSF). Their synoptic water-mass ( T- S) structures are characterized and parameterized in a generalized formulation to develop temperature-salinity feature models. A synoptic initialization scheme for feature-oriented regional modeling and simulation (FORMS) of the circulation in the coastal-to-deep region of the GOMGB system is then developed. First, the temperature and salinity feature-model profiles are placed on a regional circulation template and then objectively analyzed with appropriate background climatology in the coastal region. Furthermore, these fields are melded with adjacent deep-ocean regional circulation (Gulf Stream Meander and Ring region) along and across the SSF. These initialization fields are then used for dynamical simulations via the primitive equation model. Simulation results are analyzed to calibrate the multiparameter feature-oriented modeling system. Experimental short-term synoptic simulations are presented for multiple resolutions in different regions with and without atmospheric forcing. The presented 'generic and portable' methodology demonstrates the potential of applying similar FORMS in many other regions of the Global Coastal Ocean.

Winter air-mass-based synoptic climatological approach and hospital admissions for myocardial infarction in Florence, Italy.

PubMed

Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Grifoni, Daniele; Orlandini, Simone; Cecchi, Lorenzo; Bacci, Laura; Modesti, Pietro Amedeo; Gensini, Gian Franco; Maracchi, Giampiero

2006-09-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between the risk of hospital admission for myocardial infarction (MI) and the daily weather conditions during the winters of 1998-2003, according to an air-mass-based synoptic climatological approach. The effects of time lag and 2-day sequences with specific air mass types were also investigated. Studies concerning the relationship between atmospheric conditions and human health need to take into consideration simultaneous effects of many weather variables. At the moment few studies have surveyed these effects on hospitalizations for MI. Analyses were concentrated on winter, when the maximum peak of hospitalization occurred. An objective daily air mass classification by means of statistical analyses based on ground meteorological data was carried out. A comparison between air mass classification and hospital admissions was made by the calculation of a MI admission index, and to detect significant relationships the Mann-Whitney U test, the analysis of variance, and the Bonferroni test were used. Significant increases in hospital admissions for MI were evident 24h after a day characterized by an anticyclonic continental air mass and 6 days after a day characterized by a cyclonic air mass. Increased risk of hospitalization was found even when specific 2-day air mass sequences occurred. These results represent an important step in identifying reliable linkages between weather and health.

Role of enhanced synoptic activity and its interaction with intra-seasonal oscillations on the lower extended range prediction skill during 2015 monsoon season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abhilash, S.; Mandal, R.; Dey, A.; Phani, R.; Joseph, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.; De, S.; Agarwal, N. K.; Sahai, A. K.; Devi, S. Sunitha; Rajeevan, M.

2018-01-01

Indian summer monsoon of 2015 was deficient with prominence of short-lived (long-lived) active (break) spells. The real-time extended range forecasts disseminated by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology using an indigenous ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on National Center for Environmental Predictions's climate forecast system could broadly predict these intraseasonal fluctuations at shorter time leads (i.e. up to 10 days), but failed to predict at longer leads (15-20 days). Considering the multi-scale nature of Indian Summer Monsoon system, this particular study aims to examine the inability of the EPS in predicting the active/break episodes at longer leads from the perspective of non-linear scale interaction between the synoptic, intraseasonal and seasonal scale. It is found that the 2015 monsoon season was dominated by synoptic scale disturbances that can hinder the prediction on extended range. Further, the interaction between synoptic scale disturbances and low frequency mode was prominent during the season, which might have contributed to the reduced prediction skill at longer leads.

Geochemical Data for Upper Mineral Creek, Colorado, Under Existing Ambient Conditions and During an Experimental pH Modification, August 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runkel, Robert L.; Kimball, Briant A.; Steiger, Judy I.; Walton-Day, Katherine

2009-01-01

Mineral Creek, an acid mine drainage stream in south-western Colorado, was the subject of a water-quality study that employed a paired synoptic approach. Under the paired synoptic approach, two synoptic sampling campaigns were conducted on the same study reach. The initial synoptic campaign, conducted August 22, 2005, documented stream-water quality under existing ambient conditions. A second synoptic campaign, conducted August 24, 2005, documented stream-water quality during a pH-modification experiment that elevated the pH of Mineral Creek. The experimental pH modification was designed to determine the potential reductions in dissolved constituent concentrations that would result from the implementation of an active treatment system for acid mine drainage. During both synoptic sampling campaigns, a solution containing lithium bromide was injected continuously to allow for the calculation of streamflow using the tracer-dilution method. Synoptic water-quality samples were collected from 30 stream sites and 11 inflow locations along the 2-kilometer study reach. Data from the study provide spatial profiles of pH, concentration, and streamflow under both existing and experimentally-altered conditions. This report presents the data obtained August 21-24, 2005, as well as the methods used for sample collection and data analysis.

Sensitivity of a mesoscale model to initial specification of relative humidity, liquid water and vertical motion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalb, M. W.; Perkey, D. J.

1985-01-01

The influence of synoptic scale initial conditions on the accuracy of mesoscale precipitation modeling is investigated. Attention is focused on the relative importance of the water vapor, cloud water, rain water, and vertical motion, with the analysis carried out using the Limited Area Mesoscale Prediction System (LAMPS). The fully moist primitive equation model has 15 levels and a terrain-following sigma coordinate system. A K-theory approach was implemented to model the planetary boundary layer. A total of 15 sensitivity simulations were run to investigate the effects of the synoptic initial conditions of the four atmospheric variables. The absence of synoptic cloud and rain water amounts in the initialization caused a 2 hr delay in the onset of precipitation. The delay was increased if synoptic-scale vertical motion was used instead of mesoscale values. Both the delays and a choice of a smoothed moisture field resulted in underestimations of the total rainfall.

Interpretation of coagulation test results using a web-based reporting system.

PubMed

Quesada, Andres E; Jabcuga, Christine E; Nguyen, Alex; Wahed, Amer; Nedelcu, Elena; Nguyen, Andy N D

2014-01-01

Web-based synoptic reporting has been successfully integrated into diverse fields of pathology, improving efficiency and reducing typographic errors. Coagulation is a challenging field for practicing pathologists and pathologists-in-training alike. To develop a Web-based program that can expedite the generation of a individualized interpretive report for a variety of coagulation tests. We developed a Web-based synoptic reporting system composed of 119 coagulation report templates and 38 thromboelastography (TEG) report templates covering a wide range of findings. Our institution implemented this reporting system in July 2011; it is currently used by pathology residents and attending pathologists. Feedback from the users of these reports have been overwhelmingly positive. Surveys note the time saved and reduced errors. Our easily accessible, user-friendly, Web-based synoptic reporting system for coagulation is a valuable asset to our laboratory services. Copyright© by the American Society for Clinical Pathology (ASCP).

Computing entropy change in synoptic-scale system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Y. P.; Hu, Y. Y.; Cao, H. X.; Fu, C. F.; Feng, G. L.

2018-03-01

Thermodynamic entropy is of great importance in the atmospheric physics and chemistry process, because it is a non-conserved state function which making a system's tendency towards spontaneous change. But how the entropy forces a synoptic-scale system is still not well known. In this paper, we analyzed the entropy change in atmosphere system, by calculating several examples of extra tropical cyclones over the Yellow River and its adjacent area in summer. The results show that a strong negative entropy flux appears over the north of a stationary front and the thresholds Fe S ≤ - 280 and ∂s / ∂t ≤ - 50 are satisfied. At the same time, the change of total entropy is smaller than zero. Therefore the cyclone developed quickly and daily precipitation reached 371 mm, which is heaviest rain over the Yellows River area in summer. We suggest the dynamical entropy should be developed to improve the forecasting technique of heavy rainfall event in synoptic-scale.

Synoptic Aspects of the Climate of Japan: A Preliminary Report

DTIC Science & Technology

1945-08-01

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Exploring the interpersonal-, organization-, and system-level factors that influence the implementation and use of an innovation-synoptic reporting-in cancer care.

PubMed

Urquhart, Robin; Porter, Geoffrey A; Grunfeld, Eva; Sargeant, Joan

2012-03-01

The dominant method of reporting findings from diagnostic and surgical procedures is the narrative report. In cancer care, this report inconsistently provides the information required to understand the cancer and make informed patient care decisions. Another method of reporting, the synoptic report, captures specific data items in a structured manner and contains only items critical for patient care. Research demonstrates that synoptic reports vastly improve the quality of reporting. However, synoptic reporting represents a complex innovation in cancer care, with implementation and use requiring fundamental shifts in physician behaviour and practice, and support from the organization and larger system. The objective of this study is to examine the key interpersonal, organizational, and system-level factors that influence the implementation and use of synoptic reporting in cancer care. This study involves three initiatives in Nova Scotia, Canada, that have implemented synoptic reporting within their departments/programs. Case study methodology will be used to study these initiatives (the cases) in-depth, explore which factors were barriers or facilitators of implementation and use, examine relationships amongst factors, and uncover which factors appear to be similar and distinct across cases. The cases were selected as they converge and differ with respect to factors that are likely to influence the implementation and use of an innovation in practice. Data will be collected through in-depth interviews, document analysis, observation of training sessions, and examination/use of the synoptic reporting tools. An audit will be performed to determine/quantify use. Analysis will involve production of a case record/history for each case, in-depth analysis of each case, and cross-case analysis, where findings will be compared and contrasted across cases to develop theoretically informed, generalisable knowledge that can be applied to other settings/contexts. Ethical approval was granted for this study. This study will contribute to our knowledge base on the multi-level factors, and the relationships amongst factors in specific contexts, that influence implementation and use of innovations such as synoptic reporting in healthcare. Such knowledge is critical to improving our understanding of implementation processes in clinical settings, and to helping researchers, clinicians, and managers/administrators develop and implement ways to more effectively integrate innovations into routine clinical care.

Development of specifications for surface and subsurface oceanic environmental data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolff, P. M.

1976-01-01

The existing need for synoptic subsurface observations was demonstrated giving special attention to the requirements of meteorology. The current state of synoptic oceanographic observations was assessed; a preliminary design for the Basic Observational Network needed to fulfill the minimum needs of synoptic meteorology and oceanography was presented. There is an existing critical need for such a network in the support of atmospheric modeling and operational meteorological prediction, and through utilization of the regional water mass concept an adequate observational system can be designed which is realistic in terms of cost and effort.

Prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients from ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems

DOE PAGES

Taraphdar, S.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Leung, L. Ruby; ...

2016-12-05

The prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients (SSTR) such as monsoon low and depression during the boreal summer of 2007–2009 are assessed using high resolution ECMWF and NCEP TIGGE forecasts data. By analyzing 246 forecasts for lead times up to 10 days, it is found that the models have good skills in forecasting the planetary scale means but the skills of SSTR remain poor, with the latter showing no skill beyond 2 days for the global tropics and Indian region. Consistent forecast skills among precipitation, velocity potential, and vorticity provide evidence that convection is the primary process responsible formore » precipitation. The poor skills of SSTR can be attributed to the larger random error in the models as they fail to predict the locations and timings of SSTR. Strong correlation between the random error and synoptic precipitation suggests that the former starts to develop from regions of convection. As the NCEP model has larger biases of synoptic scale precipitation, it has a tendency to generate more random error that ultimately reduces the prediction skill of synoptic systems in that model. Finally, the larger biases in NCEP may be attributed to the model moist physics and/or coarser horizontal resolution compared to ECMWF.« less

Prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients from ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taraphdar, S.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Leung, L. Ruby

The prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients (SSTR) such as monsoon low and depression during the boreal summer of 2007–2009 are assessed using high resolution ECMWF and NCEP TIGGE forecasts data. By analyzing 246 forecasts for lead times up to 10 days, it is found that the models have good skills in forecasting the planetary scale means but the skills of SSTR remain poor, with the latter showing no skill beyond 2 days for the global tropics and Indian region. Consistent forecast skills among precipitation, velocity potential, and vorticity provide evidence that convection is the primary process responsible formore » precipitation. The poor skills of SSTR can be attributed to the larger random error in the models as they fail to predict the locations and timings of SSTR. Strong correlation between the random error and synoptic precipitation suggests that the former starts to develop from regions of convection. As the NCEP model has larger biases of synoptic scale precipitation, it has a tendency to generate more random error that ultimately reduces the prediction skill of synoptic systems in that model. Finally, the larger biases in NCEP may be attributed to the model moist physics and/or coarser horizontal resolution compared to ECMWF.« less

Frontiers of Remote Sensing of the Oceans and Troposphere from Air and Space Platforms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1984-01-01

Several areas of remote sensing are addressed including: future satellite systems; air-sea interaction/wind; ocean waves and spectra/S.A.R.; atmospheric measurements (particulates and water vapor); synoptic and weather forecasting; topography; bathymetry; sea ice; and impact of remote sensing on synoptic analysis/forecasting.

Defining Winter and Identifying Synoptic Air Mass Change in the Northeast and Northern Plains U.S. since 1950

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, C. J.; Pennington, D.; Beitscher, M. R.; Godek, M. L.

2017-12-01

Understanding and forecasting the characteristics of winter weather change in the northern U.S. is vital to regional economy, agriculture, tourism and resident life. This is especially true in the Northeast and Northern Plains where substantial changes to the winter season have already been documented in the atmospheric science and biological literature. As there is no single established definition of `winter', this research attempts to identify the winter season in both regions utilizing a synoptic climatological approach with air mass frequencies. The Spatial Synoptic Classification is used to determine the daily air mass/ weather type conditions since 1950 at 40 locations across the two regions. Annual frequencies are first computed as a baseline reference. Then winter air mass frequencies and departures from normal are calculated to define the season along with the statistical significance. Once the synoptic winter is established, long-term regional changes to the season and significance are explored. As evident global changes have occurred after 1975, an Early period of years prior to 1975 and a Late set for all years following this date are compared. Early and Late record synoptic changes are then examined to assess any thermal and moisture condition changes of the regional winter air masses over time. Cold to moderately dry air masses dominate annually in both regions. Northeast winters are also characterized by cold to moderate dry air masses, with coastal locations experiencing more Moist Polar types. The Northern Plains winters are dominated by cold, dry air masses in the east and cold to moderate dry air masses in the west. Prior to 1975, Northeast winters are defined by an increase in cooler and wetter air masses. Dry Tropical air masses only occur in this region after 1975. Northern Plains winters are also characterized by more cold, dry air masses prior to 1975. More Dry Moderate and Moist Moderate air masses have occurred since 1975. These results demonstrate that Northeast winters have air mass conditions that have become warmer and drier in recent decades. Additionally, Northern Plains winters have air mass setups that have become warmer and more moist since the mid 1970s.

Automatic Classification of Time-variable X-Ray Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, Kitty K.; Farrell, Sean; Murphy, Tara; Gaensler, B. M.

2014-05-01

To maximize the discovery potential of future synoptic surveys, especially in the field of transient science, it will be necessary to use automatic classification to identify some of the astronomical sources. The data mining technique of supervised classification is suitable for this problem. Here, we present a supervised learning method to automatically classify variable X-ray sources in the Second XMM-Newton Serendipitous Source Catalog (2XMMi-DR2). Random Forest is our classifier of choice since it is one of the most accurate learning algorithms available. Our training set consists of 873 variable sources and their features are derived from time series, spectra, and other multi-wavelength contextual information. The 10 fold cross validation accuracy of the training data is ~97% on a 7 class data set. We applied the trained classification model to 411 unknown variable 2XMM sources to produce a probabilistically classified catalog. Using the classification margin and the Random Forest derived outlier measure, we identified 12 anomalous sources, of which 2XMM J180658.7-500250 appears to be the most unusual source in the sample. Its X-ray spectra is suggestive of a ultraluminous X-ray source but its variability makes it highly unusual. Machine-learned classification and anomaly detection will facilitate scientific discoveries in the era of all-sky surveys.

Construction of a Calibrated Probabilistic Classification Catalog: Application to 50k Variable Sources in the All-Sky Automated Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richards, Joseph W.; Starr, Dan L.; Miller, Adam A.; Bloom, Joshua S.; Butler, Nathaniel R.; Brink, Henrik; Crellin-Quick, Arien

2012-12-01

With growing data volumes from synoptic surveys, astronomers necessarily must become more abstracted from the discovery and introspection processes. Given the scarcity of follow-up resources, there is a particularly sharp onus on the frameworks that replace these human roles to provide accurate and well-calibrated probabilistic classification catalogs. Such catalogs inform the subsequent follow-up, allowing consumers to optimize the selection of specific sources for further study and permitting rigorous treatment of classification purities and efficiencies for population studies. Here, we describe a process to produce a probabilistic classification catalog of variability with machine learning from a multi-epoch photometric survey. In addition to producing accurate classifications, we show how to estimate calibrated class probabilities and motivate the importance of probability calibration. We also introduce a methodology for feature-based anomaly detection, which allows discovery of objects in the survey that do not fit within the predefined class taxonomy. Finally, we apply these methods to sources observed by the All-Sky Automated Survey (ASAS), and release the Machine-learned ASAS Classification Catalog (MACC), a 28 class probabilistic classification catalog of 50,124 ASAS sources in the ASAS Catalog of Variable Stars. We estimate that MACC achieves a sub-20% classification error rate and demonstrate that the class posterior probabilities are reasonably calibrated. MACC classifications compare favorably to the classifications of several previous domain-specific ASAS papers and to the ASAS Catalog of Variable Stars, which had classified only 24% of those sources into one of 12 science classes.

CONSTRUCTION OF A CALIBRATED PROBABILISTIC CLASSIFICATION CATALOG: APPLICATION TO 50k VARIABLE SOURCES IN THE ALL-SKY AUTOMATED SURVEY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Richards, Joseph W.; Starr, Dan L.; Miller, Adam A.

2012-12-15

With growing data volumes from synoptic surveys, astronomers necessarily must become more abstracted from the discovery and introspection processes. Given the scarcity of follow-up resources, there is a particularly sharp onus on the frameworks that replace these human roles to provide accurate and well-calibrated probabilistic classification catalogs. Such catalogs inform the subsequent follow-up, allowing consumers to optimize the selection of specific sources for further study and permitting rigorous treatment of classification purities and efficiencies for population studies. Here, we describe a process to produce a probabilistic classification catalog of variability with machine learning from a multi-epoch photometric survey. In additionmore » to producing accurate classifications, we show how to estimate calibrated class probabilities and motivate the importance of probability calibration. We also introduce a methodology for feature-based anomaly detection, which allows discovery of objects in the survey that do not fit within the predefined class taxonomy. Finally, we apply these methods to sources observed by the All-Sky Automated Survey (ASAS), and release the Machine-learned ASAS Classification Catalog (MACC), a 28 class probabilistic classification catalog of 50,124 ASAS sources in the ASAS Catalog of Variable Stars. We estimate that MACC achieves a sub-20% classification error rate and demonstrate that the class posterior probabilities are reasonably calibrated. MACC classifications compare favorably to the classifications of several previous domain-specific ASAS papers and to the ASAS Catalog of Variable Stars, which had classified only 24% of those sources into one of 12 science classes.« less

Photometric Supernova Classification with Machine Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lochner, Michelle; McEwen, Jason D.; Peiris, Hiranya V.; Lahav, Ofer; Winter, Max K.

2016-08-01

Automated photometric supernova classification has become an active area of research in recent years in light of current and upcoming imaging surveys such as the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, given that spectroscopic confirmation of type for all supernovae discovered will be impossible. Here, we develop a multi-faceted classification pipeline, combining existing and new approaches. Our pipeline consists of two stages: extracting descriptive features from the light curves and classification using a machine learning algorithm. Our feature extraction methods vary from model-dependent techniques, namely SALT2 fits, to more independent techniques that fit parametric models to curves, to a completely model-independent wavelet approach. We cover a range of representative machine learning algorithms, including naive Bayes, k-nearest neighbors, support vector machines, artificial neural networks, and boosted decision trees (BDTs). We test the pipeline on simulated multi-band DES light curves from the Supernova Photometric Classification Challenge. Using the commonly used area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver Operating Characteristic as a metric, we find that the SALT2 fits and the wavelet approach, with the BDTs algorithm, each achieve an AUC of 0.98, where 1 represents perfect classification. We find that a representative training set is essential for good classification, whatever the feature set or algorithm, with implications for spectroscopic follow-up. Importantly, we find that by using either the SALT2 or the wavelet feature sets with a BDT algorithm, accurate classification is possible purely from light curve data, without the need for any redshift information.

Evaluating synoptic systems in the CMIP5 climate models over the Australian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibson, Peter B.; Uotila, Petteri; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Pitman, Andrew J.

2016-10-01

Climate models are our principal tool for generating the projections used to inform climate change policy. Our confidence in projections depends, in part, on how realistically they simulate present day climate and associated variability over a range of time scales. Traditionally, climate models are less commonly assessed at time scales relevant to daily weather systems. Here we explore the utility of a self-organizing maps (SOMs) procedure for evaluating the frequency, persistence and transitions of daily synoptic systems in the Australian region simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models. In terms of skill in simulating the climatological frequency of synoptic systems, large spread was observed between models. A positive association between all metrics was found, implying that relative skill in simulating the persistence and transitions of systems is related to skill in simulating the climatological frequency. Considering all models and metrics collectively, model performance was found to be related to model horizontal resolution but unrelated to vertical resolution or representation of the stratosphere. In terms of the SOM procedure, the timespan over which evaluation was performed had some influence on model performance skill measures, as did the number of circulation types examined. These findings have implications for selecting models most useful for future projections over the Australian region, particularly for projections related to synoptic scale processes and phenomena. More broadly, this study has demonstrated the utility of the SOMs procedure in providing a process-based evaluation of climate models.

Synoptical situations and meteorological conditions associated to floods in the mouth of rivers in the European part of Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matveeva, Tatiana; Gushchina, Daria

2013-04-01

The synoptical situations associated to the various type of floods in the mouth of rivers in European part of Russia are described. The storm surges, water flows and ice-jams are considered for Baltic, Barents sea, White sea, Azov sea, Black sea and Caspian sea regions. It is shown that the specific types of flood may be associated to various synoptical situations. Therefore it is unlikely to introduce the classification of synoptical regimes resulting in specific type of floods. However for each zone under consideration and for each specific flood type it is possible to determine the potential predictors of inundation: i.e. meteorological parameters which are characteristics of all cases of specific flood. There are: • for storm surges - long term wind forcing resulting in seiches in the sea, strong wind speed (the threshold varies in dependence on region), the wind direction orthogonal to the flow of river and strong baric gradient; • for water flows - the abundant precipitation, usually associate with the intensive frontal zone, the sudden change of air temperature resulting in snow melting in spring time; • for ice-jams - the strong temperature gradient extended in north-south direction resulting in negative temperature in the river mouth and positive temperature in the other basin. The probability of occurrence of predictors mentioned above was estimated for modern climate and global warming conditions using the outputs of ECHAM5/MPI-OM model. It is shown that the occurrence of intensive frontal zone and rainfall in the South of Russia will increase (decrease) in summer (winter) under warmer climate conditions which may contribute to the increase of water flows in this region. Maximum of floods occurs during the warm period, we can conclude that global warming increases the risk of floods in Black Sea coast.

The family structure of the Mucorales: a synoptic revision based on comprehensive multigene-genealogies.

PubMed

Hoffmann, K; Pawłowska, J; Walther, G; Wrzosek, M; de Hoog, G S; Benny, G L; Kirk, P M; Voigt, K

2013-06-01

The Mucorales (Mucoromycotina) are one of the most ancient groups of fungi comprising ubiquitous, mostly saprotrophic organisms. The first comprehensive molecular studies 11 yr ago revealed the traditional classification scheme, mainly based on morphology, as highly artificial. Since then only single clades have been investigated in detail but a robust classification of the higher levels based on DNA data has not been published yet. Therefore we provide a classification based on a phylogenetic analysis of four molecular markers including the large and the small subunit of the ribosomal DNA, the partial actin gene and the partial gene for the translation elongation factor 1-alpha. The dataset comprises 201 isolates in 103 species and represents about one half of the currently accepted species in this order. Previous family concepts are reviewed and the family structure inferred from the multilocus phylogeny is introduced and discussed. Main differences between the current classification and preceding concepts affects the existing families Lichtheimiaceae and Cunninghamellaceae, as well as the genera Backusella and Lentamyces which recently obtained the status of families along with the Rhizopodaceae comprising Rhizopus, Sporodiniella and Syzygites. Compensatory base change analyses in the Lichtheimiaceae confirmed the lower level classification of Lichtheimia and Rhizomucor while genera such as Circinella or Syncephalastrum completely lacked compensatory base changes.

Circulation Type Classifications and their nexus to Van Bebber's storm track Vb

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hofstätter, M.; Chimani, B.

2012-04-01

Circulation Type Classifications (CTCs) are tools to identify repetitive and predominantly stationary patterns of the atmospheric circulation over a certain area, with the purpose to enable the recognition of specific characteristics in surface climate variables. On the other hand storm tracks can be used to identify similar types of synoptic events from a non-stationary, kinematic perspective. Such a storm track classification for Europe has been done in the late 19th century by Van Bebber (1882, 1891), from which the famous type Vb and Vc/d remained up to the present day because of to their association with major flooding events like in August 2002 in Europe. In this work a systematic tracking procedure has been developed, to determine storm track types and their characteristics especially for the Eastern Alpine Region in the period 1961-2002, using ERA40 and ERAinterim reanalysis. The focus thereby is on cyclone tracks of type V as suggested by van Bebber and congeneric types. This new catalogue is used as a reference to verify the hypothesis of a certain coherence of storm track Vb with certain circulation types (e.g. Fricke and Kaminski, 2002). Selected objective and subjective classification schemes from the COST733 action (http://cost733.met.no/, Phillip et al. 2010) are used therefore, as well as the manual classification from ZAMG (Lauscher 1972 and 1985), in which storm track Vb has been classified explicitly on a daily base since 1948. The latter scheme should prove itself as a valuable and unique data source in that issue. Results show that not less than 146 storm tracks are identified as Vb between 1961 and 2002, whereas only three events could be found from literature, pointing to big subjectivity and preconception in the issue of Vb storm tracks. The annual number of Vb storm tracks do not show any significant trend over the last 42 years, but large variations from year to year. Circulation type classification CAP27 (Cluster Analysis of Principal Components) is the best performing, fully objective scheme tested herein, showing the power to discriminate Vb events. Most of the other fully objective schemes do by far not perform as well. Largest skill in that issue can be seen from the subjective/manual CTCs, proving themselves to enhance relevant synoptic phenomena instead of emphasizing mathematic criteria in the classification. The hypothesis of Fricke and Kaminsky can definitely be supported by this work: Vb storm tracks are included in one or the other stationary circulation pattern, but to which extent depends on the specific characteristics of the CTC in question.

Automatic classification of time-variable X-ray sources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lo, Kitty K.; Farrell, Sean; Murphy, Tara

2014-05-01

To maximize the discovery potential of future synoptic surveys, especially in the field of transient science, it will be necessary to use automatic classification to identify some of the astronomical sources. The data mining technique of supervised classification is suitable for this problem. Here, we present a supervised learning method to automatically classify variable X-ray sources in the Second XMM-Newton Serendipitous Source Catalog (2XMMi-DR2). Random Forest is our classifier of choice since it is one of the most accurate learning algorithms available. Our training set consists of 873 variable sources and their features are derived from time series, spectra, andmore » other multi-wavelength contextual information. The 10 fold cross validation accuracy of the training data is ∼97% on a 7 class data set. We applied the trained classification model to 411 unknown variable 2XMM sources to produce a probabilistically classified catalog. Using the classification margin and the Random Forest derived outlier measure, we identified 12 anomalous sources, of which 2XMM J180658.7–500250 appears to be the most unusual source in the sample. Its X-ray spectra is suggestive of a ultraluminous X-ray source but its variability makes it highly unusual. Machine-learned classification and anomaly detection will facilitate scientific discoveries in the era of all-sky surveys.« less

Detailed Quantitative Classifications of Galaxy Morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nair, Preethi

2018-01-01

Understanding the physical processes responsible for the growth of galaxies is one of the key challenges in extragalactic astronomy. The assembly history of a galaxy is imprinted in a galaxy’s detailed morphology. The bulge-to-total ratio of galaxies, the presence or absence of bars, rings, spiral arms, tidal tails etc, all have implications for the past merger, star formation, and feedback history of a galaxy. However, current quantitative galaxy classification schemes are only useful for broad binning. They cannot classify or exploit the wide variety of galaxy structures seen in nature. Therefore, comparisons of observations with theoretical predictions of secular structure formation have only been conducted on small samples of visually classified galaxies. However large samples are needed to disentangle the complex physical processes of galaxy formation. With the advent of large surveys, like the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and the upcoming Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) and WFIRST, the problem of statistics will be resolved. However, the need for a robust quantitative classification scheme will still remain. Here I will present early results on promising machine learning algorithms that are providing detailed classifications, identifying bars, rings, multi-armed spiral galaxies, and Hubble type.

The SED Machine: A Robotic Spectrograph for Fast Transient Classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blagorodnova, Nadejda; Neill, James D.; Walters, Richard; Kulkarni, Shrinivas R.; Fremling, Christoffer; Ben-Ami, Sagi; Dekany, Richard G.; Fucik, Jason R.; Konidaris, Nick; Nash, Reston; Ngeow, Chow-Choong; Ofek, Eran O.; O’ Sullivan, Donal; Quimby, Robert; Ritter, Andreas; Vyhmeister, Karl E.

2018-03-01

Current time domain facilities are finding several hundreds of transient astronomical events a year. The discovery rate is expected to increase in the future as soon as new surveys such as the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) and the Large Synoptic Sky Survey (LSST) come online. Presently, the rate at which transients are classified is approximately one order or magnitude lower than the discovery rate, leading to an increasing “follow-up drought”. Existing telescopes with moderate aperture can help address this deficit when equipped with spectrographs optimized for spectral classification. Here, we provide an overview of the design, operations and first results of the Spectral Energy Distribution Machine (SEDM), operating on the Palomar 60-inch telescope (P60). The instrument is optimized for classification and high observing efficiency. It combines a low-resolution (R ∼ 100) integral field unit (IFU) spectrograph with “Rainbow Camera” (RC), a multi-band field acquisition camera which also serves as multi-band (ugri) photometer. The SEDM was commissioned during the operation of the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory (iPTF) and has already lived up to its promise. The success of the SEDM demonstrates the value of spectrographs optimized for spectral classification.

Tropical Pacific moisture variability: Its detection, synoptic structure and consequences in the general circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcguirk, James P.

1990-01-01

Satellite data analysis tools are developed and implemented for the diagnosis of atmospheric circulation systems over the tropical Pacific Ocean. The tools include statistical multi-variate procedures, a multi-spectral radiative transfer model, and the global spectral forecast model at NMC. Data include in-situ observations; satellite observations from VAS (moisture, infrared and visible) NOAA polar orbiters (including Tiros Operational Satellite System (TOVS) multi-channel sounding data and OLR grids) and scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR); and European Centre for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECHMWF) analyses. A primary goal is a better understanding of the relation between synoptic structures of the area, particularly tropical plumes, and the general circulation, especially the Hadley circulation. A second goal is the definition of the quantitative structure and behavior of all Pacific tropical synoptic systems. Finally, strategies are examined for extracting new and additional information from existing satellite observations. Although moisture structure is emphasized, thermal patterns are also analyzed. Both horizontal and vertical structures are studied and objective quantitative results are emphasized.

Impacts of 2000-2050 Climate Change on Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Air Quality in China Based on Statistical Projections Using an Ensemble of Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, D. M.; Tai, A. P. K.; Shen, L.; Moch, J. M.; van Donkelaar, A.; Mickley, L. J.

2017-12-01

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality is strongly dependent on not only on emissions but also meteorological conditions. Here we examine the dominant synoptic circulation patterns that control day-to-day PM2.5 variability over China. We perform principal component (PC) analysis on 1998-2016 NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis I daily meteorological fields to diagnose distinct synoptic meteorological modes, and perform PC regression on spatially interpolated 2014-2016 daily mean PM2.5 concentrations in China to identify modes dominantly explaining PM2.5 variability. We find that synoptic systems, e.g., cold-frontal passages, maritime inflow and frontal precipitation, can explain up to 40% of the day-to-day PM2.5 variability in major metropolitan regions in China. We further investigate how annually changing frequencies of synoptic systems, as well as changing local meteorology, drive interannual PM2.5 variability. We apply a spectral analysis on the PC time series to obtain the 1998-2016 annual median synoptic frequency, and use a forward-selection multiple linear regression (MLR) model of satellite-derived 1998-2015 annual mean PM2.5 concentrations on local meteorology and synoptic frequency, selecting predictors that explain the highest fraction of interannual PM2.5 variability while guarding against multicollinearity. To estimate the effect of climate change on future PM2.5 air quality, we project a multimodel ensemble of 15 CMIP5 models under the RCP8.5 scenario on the PM2.5-to-meteorology sensitivities derived for the present-day from the MLR model. Our results show that climate change could be responsible for increases in PM2.5 of more than 25 μg m-3 in northwestern China and 10 mg m-3 in northeastern China by the 2050s. Increases in synoptic frequency of cold-frontal passages cause only a modest 1 μg m-3 decrease in PM2.5 in North China Plain. Our analyses show that climate change imposes a significant penalty on air quality over China and poses serious threat on human health under the RCP8.5 future.

Synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions associated with flash flooding in watersheds of the Catskill Mountains, New York, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teale, N. G.; Quiring, S. M.

2015-12-01

Understanding flash flooding is important in unfiltered watersheds, such as portions of the New York City water supply system (NYCWSS), as water quality is degraded by turbidity associated with flooding. To further understand flash flooding in watersheds of the NYCWSS, synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions most frequently associated with flash flooding between 1987 and 2013 were examined. Flash floods were identified during this time period using USGS 15-minute discharge data at the Esopus Creek near Allaben, NY and Neversink River at Claryville, NY gauges. Overall, 25 flash floods were detected, occurring over 17 separate flash flood days. These flash flood days were compared to the days on which flash flood warnings encompassing the study area was issued by the National Weather Service. The success rate for which the flash flood warnings for Ulster County coincided with flash flood in the study watershed was 0.09, demonstrating the highly localized nature of flash flooding in the Catskill Mountain region. The synoptic-scale atmospheric patterns influencing the study area were characterized by a principal component analysis and k-means clustering of NCEP/NCAR 500 mb geopotential height reanalysis data. This procedure was executed in Spatial Synoptic Typer Tools 4.0. While 17 unique synoptic patterns were identified, only 3 types were strongly associated with flash flooding events. A strong southwesterly flow suggesting advection of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico is shown in composites of these 3 types. This multiscalar study thereby links flash flooding in the NYCWSS with synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation.Understanding flash flooding is important in unfiltered watersheds, such as portions of the New York City water supply system (NYCWSS), as water quality is degraded by turbidity associated with flooding. To further understand flash flooding in watersheds of the NYCWSS, synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions most frequently associated with flash flooding between 1987 and 2013 were examined. Flash floods were identified during this time period using USGS 15-minute discharge data at the Esopus Creek near Allaben, NY and Neversink River at Claryville, NY gauges. Overall, 25 flash floods were detected, occurring over 17 separate flash flood days. These flash flood days were compared to the days on which flash flood warnings encompassing the study area was issued by the National Weather Service. The success rate for which the flash flood warnings for Ulster County coincided with flash flood in the study watershed was 0.09, demonstrating the highly localized nature of flash flooding in the Catskill Mountain region. The synoptic-scale atmospheric patterns influencing the study area were characterized by a principal component analysis and k-means clustering of NCEP/NCAR 500 mb geopotential height reanalysis data. This procedure was executed in Spatial Synoptic Typer Tools 4.0. While 17 unique synoptic patterns were identified, only 3 types were strongly associated with flash flooding events. A strong southwesterly flow suggesting advection of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico is shown in composites of these 3 types. This multiscalar study thereby links flash flooding in the NYCWSS with synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation.

Intercomparisons of radiosondes and an airborne refractometer for measuring radio ducts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrissey, J. F.; Izumi, Y.; Cote, O. R.

1986-07-01

The capabilities of two types of radiosondes and an aircraft refractometer to measure radio ducting conditions were compared in a series of flights in September 1985 at Chatham, Mass., on Cape Cod. The tests were part of a program studying radio propagation on Air Force communication links. The intercomparisons were made between data from a refractometer mounted on a small single engine aircraft (Cessna 172) and data from an operational National Weather Service synoptic sounding system. The synoptic sonde and the portable sonde were often on the same balloon train. The comparisons show that the aircraft refractometer data indicate the highest number of ducts and the synoptic data the least number of ducts.

PHOTOMETRIC SUPERNOVA CLASSIFICATION WITH MACHINE LEARNING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lochner, Michelle; Peiris, Hiranya V.; Lahav, Ofer

Automated photometric supernova classification has become an active area of research in recent years in light of current and upcoming imaging surveys such as the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, given that spectroscopic confirmation of type for all supernovae discovered will be impossible. Here, we develop a multi-faceted classification pipeline, combining existing and new approaches. Our pipeline consists of two stages: extracting descriptive features from the light curves and classification using a machine learning algorithm. Our feature extraction methods vary from model-dependent techniques, namely SALT2 fits, to more independent techniques that fit parametric models tomore » curves, to a completely model-independent wavelet approach. We cover a range of representative machine learning algorithms, including naive Bayes, k -nearest neighbors, support vector machines, artificial neural networks, and boosted decision trees (BDTs). We test the pipeline on simulated multi-band DES light curves from the Supernova Photometric Classification Challenge. Using the commonly used area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver Operating Characteristic as a metric, we find that the SALT2 fits and the wavelet approach, with the BDTs algorithm, each achieve an AUC of 0.98, where 1 represents perfect classification. We find that a representative training set is essential for good classification, whatever the feature set or algorithm, with implications for spectroscopic follow-up. Importantly, we find that by using either the SALT2 or the wavelet feature sets with a BDT algorithm, accurate classification is possible purely from light curve data, without the need for any redshift information.« less

The life cycles of intense cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation systems observed over oceans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Phillip J.

1993-01-01

Full attention was now directed to the blocking case studies mentioned in previous reports. Coding and initial computational tests were completed for a North Atlantic blocking case that occurred in late October/early November 1985 and an upstream cyclone that developed rapidly 24 hours before block onset. This work is the subject of two papers accepted for presentation at the International Symposium on the Lifecycles of Extratropical Cyclones in Bergen, Norway, 27 June - 1 July 1994. This effort is currently highlighted by two features. The first is the extension of the Zwack-Okossi equation, originally formulated for the diagnosis of surface wave development, for application at any pressure level. The second is the separation of the basic large-scale analysis fields into synoptic-scale and planetary-scale components, using a two-dimensional Shapiro filter, and the corresponding partitioning of the Zwack-Okossi equation into synoptic-scale, planetary-scale, and synoptic/planetary-scale interaction terms. Preliminary tests suggest substantial contribution from the synoptic-scale and interaction terms.

Light extinction by fine atmospheric particles in the White Mountains region of New Hampshire and its relationship to air mass transport.

PubMed

Slater, John F; Dibb, Jack E; Keim, Barry D; Talbot, Robert W

2002-03-27

Chemical, optical, and physical measurements of fine aerosols (aerodynamic diameter < or = 2.5 microm) have been performed at a mountaintop location adjacent to the White Mountain National Forest in northern NH, USA. A 1-month long sampling campaign was conducted at Cranmore Mountain during spring 2000. We report on the apportionment of light extinction by fine aerosols into its major chemical components, and relationships between variations in aerosol parameters and changes in air mass origin. Filter-based, 24-h integrated samples were collected and analyzed for major inorganic ions, as well as organic (OC), elemental (EC), and total carbon. Light scattering and light absorption coefficients were measured at 5-min intervals using an integrating nephelometer and a light absorption photometer. Fine particle number density was measured with a condensation particle counter. Air mass origins and transport patterns were investigated through the use of 3-day backward trajectories and a synoptic climate classification system. Two distinct transport regimes were observed: (1) flow from the north/northeast (N/NE) occurred during 9 out of 18 sample-days; and (2) flow from the west/southwest (W/SW) occurred 8 out of 18 sample-days. All measured and derived aerosol and meteorological parameters were separated into two categories based on these different flow scenarios. During W/SW flow, higher values of aerosol chemical concentration, absorption and scattering coefficients, number density, and haziness were observed compared to N/NE flow. The highest level of haziness was associated with the climate classification Frontal Atlantic Return, which brought polluted air into the region from the mid-Atlantic corridor. Fine particle mass scattering efficiencies of (NH4)2SO4 and OC were 5.35 +/- 0.42 m2 g(-1) and 1.56 +/- 0.40 m2 g(-1), respectively, when transport was out of the N/NE. When transport was from the W/SW the values were 4.94 +/- 0.68 m2 g(-1) for (NH4)2SO4 and 2.18 +/- 0.91 m2 g(-1) for OC. EC mass absorption efficiency when transport was from the N/NE was 9.66 +/- 1.06 m2 g(-1) and 10.80 +/- 1.76 m2 g(-1) when transport was from the W/SW. Results from this work can be used to predict visual air quality in the White Mountain National Forest based on a forecasted synoptic climate classification and its associated visibility.

Weather elements, chemical air pollutants and airborne pollen influencing asthma emergency room visits in Szeged, Hungary: performance of two objective weather classifications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makra, László; Puskás, János; Matyasovszky, István; Csépe, Zoltán; Lelovics, Enikő; Bálint, Beatrix; Tusnády, Gábor

2015-09-01

Weather classification approaches may be useful tools in modelling the occurrence of respiratory diseases. The aim of the study is to compare the performance of an objectively defined weather classification and the Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) in classifying emergency department (ED) visits for acute asthma depending from weather, air pollutants, and airborne pollen variables for Szeged, Hungary, for the 9-year period 1999-2007. The research is performed for three different pollen-related periods of the year and the annual data set. According to age and gender, nine patient categories, eight meteorological variables, seven chemical air pollutants, and two pollen categories were used. In general, partly dry and cold air and partly warm and humid air aggravate substantially the symptoms of asthmatics. Our major findings are consistent with this establishment. Namely, for the objectively defined weather types favourable conditions for asthma ER visits occur when an anticyclonic ridge weather situation happens with near extreme temperature and humidity parameters. Accordingly, the SSC weather types facilitate aggravating asthmatic conditions if warm or cool weather occur with high humidity in both cases. Favourable conditions for asthma attacks are confirmed in the extreme seasons when atmospheric stability contributes to enrichment of air pollutants. The total efficiency of the two classification approaches is similar in spite of the fact that the methodology for derivation of the individual types within the two classification approaches is completely different.

Weather elements, chemical air pollutants and airborne pollen influencing asthma emergency room visits in Szeged, Hungary: performance of two objective weather classifications.

PubMed

Makra, László; Puskás, János; Matyasovszky, István; Csépe, Zoltán; Lelovics, Enikő; Bálint, Beatrix; Tusnády, Gábor

2015-09-01

Weather classification approaches may be useful tools in modelling the occurrence of respiratory diseases. The aim of the study is to compare the performance of an objectively defined weather classification and the Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) in classifying emergency department (ED) visits for acute asthma depending from weather, air pollutants, and airborne pollen variables for Szeged, Hungary, for the 9-year period 1999-2007. The research is performed for three different pollen-related periods of the year and the annual data set. According to age and gender, nine patient categories, eight meteorological variables, seven chemical air pollutants, and two pollen categories were used. In general, partly dry and cold air and partly warm and humid air aggravate substantially the symptoms of asthmatics. Our major findings are consistent with this establishment. Namely, for the objectively defined weather types favourable conditions for asthma ER visits occur when an anticyclonic ridge weather situation happens with near extreme temperature and humidity parameters. Accordingly, the SSC weather types facilitate aggravating asthmatic conditions if warm or cool weather occur with high humidity in both cases. Favourable conditions for asthma attacks are confirmed in the extreme seasons when atmospheric stability contributes to enrichment of air pollutants. The total efficiency of the two classification approaches is similar in spite of the fact that the methodology for derivation of the individual types within the two classification approaches is completely different.

As-built design specification for the digital derivation of daily and monthly data bases from synoptic observations of temperature and precipitation for the People's Republic of China

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jeun, B. H.; Barger, G. L.

1977-01-01

A data base of synoptic meteorological information was compiled for the People's Republic of China, as an integral part of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment. A system description is provided, including hardware and software specifications, computation algorithms and an evaluation of output validity. Operations are also outlined, with emphasis placed on least squares interpolation.

Synoptic Conditions and Moisture Sources Actuating Extreme Precipitation in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohlinger, Patrik; Sorteberg, Asgeir; Sodemann, Harald

2017-12-01

Despite the vast literature on heavy-precipitation events in South Asia, synoptic conditions and moisture sources related to extreme precipitation in Nepal have not been addressed systematically. We investigate two types of synoptic conditions—low-pressure systems and midlevel troughs—and moisture sources related to extreme precipitation events. To account for the high spatial variability in rainfall, we cluster station-based daily precipitation measurements resulting in three well-separated geographic regions: west, central, and east Nepal. For each region, composite analysis of extreme events shows that atmospheric circulation is directed against the Himalayas during an extreme event. The direction of the flow is regulated by midtropospheric troughs and low-pressure systems traveling toward the respective region. Extreme precipitation events feature anomalous high abundance of total column moisture. Quantitative Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic reveals that the largest direct contribution stems from land (approximately 75%), where, in particular, over the Indo-Gangetic Plain moisture uptake was increased. Precipitation events occurring in this region before the extreme event likely provided additional moisture.

Simulated life cycles of persistent anticyclonic anomalies over the North Pacific: Role of synoptic-scale eddies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Higgins, R. W.; Schubert, S. D.

1994-01-01

This study examines the role of synoptic-scale eddies during the development of persistent anticyclonic height anomalies over the central North Pacific in a general circulation model under perpetual January conditions. The General Circulation Model (GCM) replicates the basic characteristics of the evolution of the anomaly patterns found in observations. The life cycle is characterized by the rapid establishment of the major anomaly center and considerably longer maintenance and decay phases, which include the development of downstream anomaly centers. The simulation also shows a realistic evolution of synoptic-scale activity beginning with enhanced activity off the east coast of Asia prior to onset, followed by a northward shift of the Pacific storm track, which lasts throughout the maintenance phase. The initial enhancement of synoptic-scale eddy activity is associated with a large-scale cyclonic anomaly that developes over Siberia several days prior to the onset of the main anticyclonic anomaly over the central North Pacific. The observations, however, show considerable interdecadel variability in the details of the composite onset behavior; it is unclear whether this variability is real or whether it reflects differences in the data assimilation systems. The role of the time mean flow and synoptic-scale eddies in the development of the persistent Pacific anomalies is studied within the context of a kinetic energy budget in which the flow is decomposed into the time-mean, low-frequency (timescales longer than 10 days), and synoptic (timescales less than 6 days) components. The budget, which is carried out for the simulation at 500 mb, shows that the initial growth of the persistent anticyclonic anomalies is associated with barotropic conversions of energy, with approximately equal contributions coming from the mean flow and the synoptic-scale eddies. After onset the barotropic conversion from the mean flow dominates, whereas the decay phase is associated with baroclinic processes within the low-frequency flow.

Westerly Wind Bursts: a Synoptic-Dynamic Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartten, Leslie Marie

This research examines the synoptic and climatological settings of westerly wind bursts (WWBs) during the 1980s and the dynamical processes active during them. Probabilities of strong westerly and easterly 1000 mb winds over the western equatorial Pacific are presented. Westerlies exhibit a clear annual cycle, appearing in the north in July, moving southeastward as the year progresses, and disappearing by June. Conditional probabilities, dependent on the value of the SOI, show that strong westerlies are more likely and more geographically extensive when the SOI is low, especially from July through January. A newly developed two-dimensional classification scheme qualitatively describes the near-surface synoptic flow of almost 90% of the 131 WWBs identified during the decade. Only 8% of the WWBs are described by the pattern involving twin cyclonic circulations straddling the equator. The trades, tropical cyclones, and the southeast Asian monsoon are all at times linked to WWBs, and the synoptic patterns often contain a significant barotropic component. Breaks in WWB activity are well correlated with a cooler than normal western Pacific warm pool. However, near-equatorial WWBs do not show a good correlation with the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Four near-equatorial WWBs are examined in detail. All are associated with broad cross-equatorial flow; two also have a cyclonic circulation poleward of the westerlies. Anticyclonic relative vorticity equatorward of the burst displaces the zero line of absolute vorticity, eta, into the burst hemisphere. In the three Southern Hemisphere cases, horizontal advection in a region extending from north of New Guinea east-southeast toward the dateline is crucial to the generation and maintenance of the eta pattern. Vorticity stretching associated with convection helps maintain a tight gradient of eta near and poleward of the burst, but also drives the eta = 0 line back towards the equator as the burst ends. In the Northern Hemisphere case, advection is less efficient because the trades slow and turn further away from the equator. This research indicates that Gill's (1980) solution to the linear shallow -water equations forced by near-equatorial heating is not a good model for WWBs.

Assessment of the relationship between satellite AOD and ground PM₁₀ measurement data considering synoptic meteorological patterns and Lidar data.

PubMed

Zeeshan, Muhammad; Kim Oanh, N T

2014-03-01

Correlation between satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) and ground monitoring particulate matter (PM) depends on the meteorology that determines PM optical properties, its dispersion, accumulation and vertical distribution. This study presents a novel approach to analyze PM-AOD relationship considering the totality of meteorological factors expressed as synoptic patterns. Meteorological observations at 07:00 Bangkok time from 9 regional meteorological stations, in dry seasons (November-April) of 11 years (2000-2010), were used to categorize governing meteorology over Central Thailand into four categories representing the typical observed synoptic patterns. The MANOVA analysis showed that these patterns were statistically different. PM10 recorded at 22 air quality stations in Bangkok Metropolitan Region were examined which showed the highest levels for the days belonging to pattern 1, followed by pattern 4, both with presence of a high pressure ridge, while the minimum for pattern 2 when thermal lows dominated. Lidar aerosol backscatter profiles recorded at Pimai station were used as indicator of PM vertical distribution that showed similarity within each pattern. R(2) between MODIS and Sun photometer AODs at Pimai was above 0.8. Correlation coefficients (R) between MODIS AOD and corresponding 1h PM10 for clear sky days (cloudiness ≤ 3/10) were examined for each pattern in comparison with lump case. Significant improvements were observed for pattern 1, average R across 22 stations was 0.46 for Terra and 0.38 for Aqua AOD compared to lump case with R of 0.34 and 0.31, respectively. Comparable improvement was also observed for pattern 4. For pattern 2, R values were significantly reduced which may be caused by the deeper mixing layers and varying vertical profiles with overall low values of Lidar backscatter coefficients. Improved R values in pattern 1 and 4, which had highest PM10 in BMR, suggested a better potential of using MODIS AOD for PM10 monitoring with synoptic pattern classification. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of operational numerical weather predictions in relation to the prevailing synoptic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pytharoulis, Ioannis; Tegoulias, Ioannis; Karacostas, Theodore; Kotsopoulos, Stylianos; Kartsios, Stergios; Bampzelis, Dimitrios

2015-04-01

The Thessaly plain, which is located in central Greece, has a vital role in the financial life of the country, because of its significant agricultural production. The aim of DAPHNE project (http://www.daphne-meteo.gr) is to tackle the problem of drought in this area by means of Weather Modification in convective clouds. This problem is reinforced by the increase of population and the water demand for irrigation, especially during the warm period of the year. The nonhydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), is utilized for research and operational purposes of DAPHNE project. The WRF output fields are employed by the partners in order to provide high-resolution meteorological guidance and plan the project's operations. The model domains cover: i) Europe, the Mediterranean sea and northern Africa, ii) Greece and iii) the wider region of Thessaly (at selected periods), at horizontal grid-spacings of 15km, 5km and 1km, respectively, using 2-way telescoping nesting. The aim of this research work is to investigate the model performance in relation to the prevailing upper-air synoptic circulation. The statistical evaluation of the high-resolution operational forecasts of near-surface and upper air fields is performed at a selected period of the operational phase of the project using surface observations, gridded fields and weather radar data. The verification is based on gridded, point and object oriented techniques. The 10 upper-air circulation types, which describe the prevailing conditions over Greece, are employed in the synoptic classification. This methodology allows the identification of model errors that occur and/or are maximized at specific synoptic conditions and may otherwise be obscured in aggregate statistics. Preliminary analysis indicates that the largest errors are associated with cyclonic conditions. Acknowledgments This research work of Daphne project (11SYN_8_1088) is co-funded by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek national funds, through the action "COOPERATION 2011: Partnerships of Production and Research Institutions in Focused Research and Technology Sectors" in the framework of the Operational Programme "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" and Regions in Transition (OPC II, NSRF 2007-2013).

The effects of synoptic weather on influenza infection incidences: a retrospective study utilizing digital disease surveillance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Naizhuo; Cao, Guofeng; Vanos, Jennifer K.; Vecellio, Daniel J.

2018-01-01

The environmental drivers and mechanisms of influenza dynamics remain unclear. The recent development of influenza surveillance-particularly the emergence of digital epidemiology-provides an opportunity to further understand this puzzle as an area within applied human biometeorology. This paper investigates the short-term weather effects on human influenza activity at a synoptic scale during cold seasons. Using 10 years (2005-2014) of municipal level influenza surveillance data (an adjustment of the Google Flu Trends estimation from the Centers for Disease Control's virologic surveillance data) and daily spatial synoptic classification weather types, we explore and compare the effects of weather exposure on the influenza infection incidences in 79 cities across the USA. We find that during the cold seasons the presence of the polar [i.e., dry polar (DP) and moist polar (MP)] weather types is significantly associated with increasing influenza likelihood in 62 and 68% of the studied cities, respectively, while the presence of tropical [i.e., dry tropical (DT) and moist tropical (MT)] weather types is associated with a significantly decreasing occurrence of influenza in 56 and 43% of the cities, respectively. The MP and the DP weather types exhibit similar close positive correlations with influenza infection incidences, indicating that both cold-dry and cold-moist air provide favorable conditions for the occurrence of influenza in the cold seasons. Additionally, when tropical weather types are present, the humid (MT) and the dry (DT) weather types have similar strong impacts to inhibit the occurrence of influenza. These findings suggest that temperature is a more dominating atmospheric factor than moisture that impacts the occurrences of influenza in cold seasons.

Marine Air Penetration: The Effect of Synoptic-scale Change on Regional Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Ullrich, P. A.

2016-12-01

Marine air penetration (MAP) around the California San Francisco Bay Delta region has a pronounced impact on local temperature and air quality, and is highly correlated with inland wind penetration and hence wind power generation. Observational MAP criteria are defined based on the 900hPa across-shore wind speed greater than or equal to 3m/s at the Oakland radiosonde station, and a surface temperature difference greater than or equal to 7 degrees Celsius between two California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) stations at Fresno, CA and Lodi, CA. This choice reflects marine cooling of Lodi, and was found to be highly correlated with inland specific humidity and breeze front activity. The observational MAP criteria were tuned based on small biases from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) to selected MAP days from CFSR, to identify synoptic-scale indicators associated with MAP events. A multivariate logistic regression model was constructed based on the selected five synoptic indicators from CFSR and demonstrated good model performance. Two synoptic-scale patterns were identified and analyzed out of the 32 categories from the regression model, suggesting a strong influence from the off-shore trough and the inland thermal ridge on MAP events. Future projection of MAP events included the 21st century Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and Variable resolution in the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM). Both showed no statistically significant trend associated with MAP events through the end of this century under both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5.

Development and implementation of a synoptic MRI report for preoperative staging of rectal cancer on a population-based level.

PubMed

Kennedy, Erin D; Milot, Laurent; Fruitman, Mark; Al-Sukhni, Eisar; Heine, Gabrielle; Schmocker, Selina; Brown, Gina; McLeod, Robin S

2014-06-01

Colorectal cancer physician champions across the province of Ontario, Canada, reported significant concern about appropriate selection of patients for preoperative chemoradiotherapy because of perceived variation in the completeness and consistency of MRI reports. The purpose of this work was to develop, pilot test, and implement a synoptic MRI report for preoperative staging of rectal cancer. This was an integrated knowledge translation project. This study was conducted in Ontario, Canada. Surgeons, radiologists, radiation oncologists, medical oncologists, and pathologists treating patients with rectal cancer were included in this study. A multifaceted knowledge translation strategy was used to develop, pilot test, and implement a synoptic MRI report. This strategy included physician champions, audit and feedback, assessment of barriers, and tailoring to the local context. A radiology webinar was conducted to pilot test the synoptic MRI report. Seventy-three (66%) of 111 Ontario radiologists participated in the radiology webinar and evaluated the synoptic MRI report. A total of 78% and 90% radiologists expressed that the synoptic MRI report was easy to use and included all of the appropriate items; 82% noted that the synoptic MRI report improved the overall quality of their information, and 83% indicated they would consider using this report in their clinical practice. An MRI report audit after implementation of the synoptic MRI report showed a 39% improvement in the completeness of MRI reports and a 37% uptake of the synoptic MRI report format across the province. Radiologists evaluating the synoptic MRI report and participating in the radiology webinar may not be representative of gastroenterologic radiologists in other geographic jurisdictions. The evaluation of completeness and uptake of the synoptic MRI reports is limited because of unmeasured differences that may occur before and after the MRI. A synoptic MRI report for preoperative staging of rectal cancer was successfully developed and pilot tested in the province of Ontario, Canada.

Wind Shear Requirements and Their Application to Laser Systems

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1978-02-01

The requirements for a ground-based wind shear sensing system are developed. System coverage, accuracy, resolution, and data update rate are treated in detail. The differing requirements for synoptic shear conditions and thunderstorm-associated shear...

Rotation-invariant convolutional neural networks for galaxy morphology prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieleman, Sander; Willett, Kyle W.; Dambre, Joni

2015-06-01

Measuring the morphological parameters of galaxies is a key requirement for studying their formation and evolution. Surveys such as the Sloan Digital Sky Survey have resulted in the availability of very large collections of images, which have permitted population-wide analyses of galaxy morphology. Morphological analysis has traditionally been carried out mostly via visual inspection by trained experts, which is time consuming and does not scale to large (≳104) numbers of images. Although attempts have been made to build automated classification systems, these have not been able to achieve the desired level of accuracy. The Galaxy Zoo project successfully applied a crowdsourcing strategy, inviting online users to classify images by answering a series of questions. Unfortunately, even this approach does not scale well enough to keep up with the increasing availability of galaxy images. We present a deep neural network model for galaxy morphology classification which exploits translational and rotational symmetry. It was developed in the context of the Galaxy Challenge, an international competition to build the best model for morphology classification based on annotated images from the Galaxy Zoo project. For images with high agreement among the Galaxy Zoo participants, our model is able to reproduce their consensus with near-perfect accuracy (>99 per cent) for most questions. Confident model predictions are highly accurate, which makes the model suitable for filtering large collections of images and forwarding challenging images to experts for manual annotation. This approach greatly reduces the experts' workload without affecting accuracy. The application of these algorithms to larger sets of training data will be critical for analysing results from future surveys such as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope.

Polynya dynamics and associated atmospheric forcing at the Ronne Ice Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebner, Lars; Heinemann, Günther

2014-05-01

The Ronne Ice Shelf is known as one of the most active regions of polynya developments around the Antarctic continent. Low temperatures are prevailing throughout the whole year, particularly in winter. It is generally recognized that polynya formations are primarily forced by offshore winds and secondarily by ocean currents. Many authors have addressed this issue previously at the Ross Ice Shelf and Adélie Coast and connected polynya dynamics to strong katabatic surge events. Such investigations of atmospheric dynamics and simultaneous polynya occurrence are still severely underrepresented for the southwestern part of the Weddell Sea and especially for the Ronne Ice Shelf. Due to the very flat terrain gradients of the ice shelf katabatic winds are of minor importance in that area. Other atmospheric processes must therefore play a crucial role for polynya developments at the Ronne Ice Shelf. High-resolution simulations have been carried out for the Weddell Sea region using the non-hydrostatic NWP model COSMO from the German Meteorological Service (DWD). For the austral autumn and winter (March to August) 2008 daily forecast simulations were conducted with the consideration of daily sea-ice coverage deduced from the passive microwave system AMSR-E. These simulations are used to analyze the synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric dynamics of the Weddell Sea region and find linkages to polynya occurrence at the Ronne Ice Shelf. For that reason, the relation between the surface wind speed, the synoptic pressure gradient in the free atmosphere and polynya area is investigated. Seven significant polynya events are identified for the simulation period, three in the autumn and four in the winter season. It can be shown that in almost all cases synoptic cyclones are the primary polynya forcing systems. In most cases the timely interaction of several passing cyclones in the northern and central Weddell Sea leads to maintenance of a strong synoptic pressure gradient above the Ronne Ice Shelf. This strong synoptic forcing results in a moderate to strong offshore surface wind. It turned out that these synoptic depressions lead to strong barrier winds above the northwestern Ronne Ice Shelf and along the eastern flank of the Antarctic Peninsula. The fact, that these barrier winds often appear prior or during the initial break up of sea ice at the shelf ice edge, suggest that this mesoscale wind phenomenon plays a crucial role for polynya development. Furthermore, even mesoscale cyclogenesis above the Ronne Ice Shelf and the following northeastward passage of such a system can break up sea-ice cover under large-scale stationary weather conditions.

Revisiting the Observed Correlation Between Weekly Averaged Indian Monsoon Precipitation and Arabian Sea Aerosol Optical Depth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, D.; Miller, R. L.

2017-12-01

Dust influences the Indian summer monsoon on seasonal timescales by perturbing atmospheric radiation. On weekly time scales, aerosol optical depth retrieved by satellite over the Arabian Sea is correlated with Indian monsoon precipitation. This has been interpreted to show the effect of dust radiative heating on Indian rainfall on synoptic (few-day) time scales. However, this correlation is reproduced by Earth System Model simulations, where dust is present but its radiative effect is omitted. Analysis of daily variability suggests that the correlation results from the effect of precipitation on dust through the associated cyclonic circulation. Boundary layer winds that deliver moisture to India are responsible for dust outbreaks in source regions far upwind, including the Arabian Peninsula. This suggests that synoptic variations in monsoon precipitation over India enhance dust emission and transport to the Arabian Sea. The effect of dust radiative heating upon synoptic monsoon variations remains to be determined.

Revisiting the observed correlation between weekly averaged Indian monsoon precipitation and Arabian Sea aerosol optical depth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Disha; Miller, Ron L.

2017-10-01

Dust influences the Indian summer monsoon on seasonal time scales by perturbing atmospheric radiation. On weekly time scales, aerosol optical depth retrieved by satellite over the Arabian Sea is correlated with Indian monsoon precipitation. This has been interpreted to show the effect of dust radiative heating on Indian rainfall on synoptic (few-day) time scales. However, this correlation is reproduced by Earth System Model simulations, where dust is present but its radiative effect is omitted. Analysis of daily variability suggests that the correlation results from the effect of precipitation on dust through the associated cyclonic circulation. Boundary layer winds that deliver moisture to India are responsible for dust outbreaks in source regions far upwind, including the Arabian Peninsula. This suggests that synoptic variations in monsoon precipitation over India enhance dust emission and transport to the Arabian Sea. The effect of dust radiative heating upon synoptic monsoon variations remains to be determined.

Towards a study of synoptic-scale variability of the California current system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

A West Coast satellite time series advisory group was established to consider the scientific rationale for the development of complete west coast time series of imagery of sea surface temperature (as derived by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer on the NOAA polar orbiter, and near-surface phytoplankton pigment concentrations (as derived by the Coastal Zone Color Scanner on Nimbus 7). The scientific and data processing requirements for such time series are also considered. It is determined that such time series are essential if a number of scientific questions regarding the synoptic-scale dynamics of the California Current System are to be addressed. These questions concern both biological and physical processes.

The effects of implementing synoptic pathology reporting in cancer diagnosis: a systematic review.

PubMed

Sluijter, Caro E; van Lonkhuijzen, Luc R C W; van Slooten, Henk-Jan; Nagtegaal, Iris D; Overbeek, Lucy I H

2016-06-01

Pathology reporting is evolving from a traditional narrative report to a more structured synoptic report. Narrative reporting can cause misinterpretation due to lack of information and structure. In this systematic review, we evaluate the impact of synoptic reporting on completeness of pathology reports and quality of pathology evaluation for solid tumours. Pubmed, Embase and Cochrane databases were systematically searched to identify studies describing the effect of synoptic reporting implementation on completeness of reporting and quality of pathology evaluation of solid malignant tumours. Thirty-three studies met the inclusion criteria. All studies, except one, reported an increased overall completeness of pathology reports after introduction of synoptic reporting (SR). Most frequently studied cancers were breast (n = 9) and colorectal cancer (n = 16). For breast cancer, narrative reports adequately described 'tumour type' and 'nodal status'. Synoptic reporting resulted in improved description of 'resection margins', 'DCIS size', 'location' and 'presence of calcifications'. For colorectal cancer, narrative reports adequately reported 'tumour type', 'invasion depth', 'lymph node counts' and 'nodal status'. Synoptic reporting resulted in increased reporting of 'circumferential margin', 'resection margin', 'perineural invasion' and 'lymphovascular invasion'. In addition, increased numbers of reported lymph nodes were found in synoptic reports. Narrative reports of other cancer types described the traditional parameters adequately, whereas for 'resection margins' and '(lympho)vascular/perineural invasion', implementation of synoptic reporting was necessary. Synoptic reporting results in improved reporting of clinical relevant data. Demonstration of clinical impact of this improved method of pathology reporting is required for successful introduction and implementation in daily pathology practice.

Satellite Image Classification of Building Damages Using Airborne and Satellite Image Samples in a Deep Learning Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duarte, D.; Nex, F.; Kerle, N.; Vosselman, G.

2018-05-01

The localization and detailed assessment of damaged buildings after a disastrous event is of utmost importance to guide response operations, recovery tasks or for insurance purposes. Several remote sensing platforms and sensors are currently used for the manual detection of building damages. However, there is an overall interest in the use of automated methods to perform this task, regardless of the used platform. Owing to its synoptic coverage and predictable availability, satellite imagery is currently used as input for the identification of building damages by the International Charter, as well as the Copernicus Emergency Management Service for the production of damage grading and reference maps. Recently proposed methods to perform image classification of building damages rely on convolutional neural networks (CNN). These are usually trained with only satellite image samples in a binary classification problem, however the number of samples derived from these images is often limited, affecting the quality of the classification results. The use of up/down-sampling image samples during the training of a CNN, has demonstrated to improve several image recognition tasks in remote sensing. However, it is currently unclear if this multi resolution information can also be captured from images with different spatial resolutions like satellite and airborne imagery (from both manned and unmanned platforms). In this paper, a CNN framework using residual connections and dilated convolutions is used considering both manned and unmanned aerial image samples to perform the satellite image classification of building damages. Three network configurations, trained with multi-resolution image samples are compared against two benchmark networks where only satellite image samples are used. Combining feature maps generated from airborne and satellite image samples, and refining these using only the satellite image samples, improved nearly 4 % the overall satellite image classification of building damages.

The role of synoptic weather variability in Greenland ice sheet dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, J. M.; Radic, V.

2017-12-01

Much of the large uncertainty in predictions of future global sea level rise is due to our limited understanding of Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) motion and its interactions with climate. Over the next century, climate models predict that the GrIS will experience not only gradual warming, but also changes in atmospheric circulation, hydrology, and weather, including a northward shift of the North Atlantic storm track, with greater frequency and intensity of rain storms over the GrIS. Recent studies of GrIS dynamics have focused on the effects of increased seasonal mean meltwater on ice velocities, finding only a modest impact due to compensation by subglacial drainage systems, but subglacial hydraulic theory indicates that variability on shorter timescales is also relevant: short-term surges in meltwater or rainfall can overload drainage systems at rates faster than they can adjust, leading to water pressure spikes and ice acceleration. If the magnitude or frequency of these transient ice accelerations increase substantially as synoptic weather patterns change over the next century, there could be a significant cumulative impact on seasonal mean ice velocities. However, this issue has not been addressed in the literature and represents a major source of uncertainty. In this study, we investigate the role of synoptic weather variability in GrIS dynamics, with the ultimate goal of evaluating the relationships between extreme weather events and ice sheet flow in different seasons and regions of the GrIS. As a first step, we apply the machine learning technique of self-organizing maps to atmospheric reanalysis data to categorize the predominant synoptic weather systems over the GrIS domain, evaluating atmospheric moisture transport and rainfall to assess the impacts of each weather system on GrIS surface hydrology. The preliminary results presented here will be used in conjunction with ice velocity satellite measurements in future work, to identify any correlations between seasonal mean GrIS velocities and the frequency or intensity of storms during the season.

Influence of synoptic condition and holiday effects on VOCs and ozone production in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhengning; Huang, Xin; Nie, Wei; Chi, Xuguang; Xu, Zheng; Zheng, Longfei; Sun, Peng; Ding, Aijun

2017-11-01

Both anthropogenic emission and synoptic conditions play important roles in ozone (O3) formation and accumulation. In order to understand the influence of synoptic condition and holiday effects on ozone production in the Yangtze River Delta region, China, concentrations of speciated volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and O3 as well as other relevant trace gases were simultaneously measured at the Station for Observing Regional Processes of the Earth System (SORPES) in Nanjing around the National Day holidays of China in 2014, which featured substantial change of emissions and dominated by typical anti-cyclones. Different groups of VOC species and their chemical reactivities were comprehensively analyzed. We observed clear diurnal variations of short alkenes during the measurement period, considerable amount of short alkenes were observed during night (more than 10 ppb) while almost no alkenes were measured during daytime, which might be attributed to different chemical processes. The obvious enhancement of the VOC tracers during the National Day holidays (Oct. 1st-Oct. 7th) indicated that the holiday effect strongly influenced the distribution of VOC profile and chemical reactivity in the atmosphere. At the same time, two meso-scale anticyclone processes were also observed during the measurement period. The synoptic condition contributed to the accumulation of VOCs and other precursors, which consequently impacted the ozone production in this region. The integrated influence of synoptic and holiday effects was also analyzed with an Observation Based Model (OBM) based on simplified MCM (Master Chemical Mechanism) chemical mechanism. The calculated relative increment reactivity (RIR) of different VOC groups revealed that during the holidays, this region was in VOC-limited regime and the variation of RIR shows a close linkage to the development and elimination of anti-cyclones, indicating an in-negligible contribution of synoptic effect toward ozone production in this region.

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope OCS and TCS models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schumacher, German; Delgado, Francisco

2010-07-01

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) is a project envisioned as a system of systems with demanding science, technical, and operational requirements, that must perform as a fully integrated unit. The design and implementation of such a system poses big engineering challenges when performing requirements analysis, detailed interface definitions, operational modes and control strategy studies. The OMG System Modeling Language (SysML) has been selected as the framework for the systems engineering analysis and documentation for the LSST. Models for the overall system architecture and different observatory subsystems have been built describing requirements, structure, interfaces and behavior. In this paper we show the models for the Observatory Control System (OCS) and the Telescope Control System (TCS), and how this methodology has helped in the clarification of the design and requirements. In one common language, the relationships of the OCS, TCS, Camera and Data management subsystems are captured with models of the structure, behavior, requirements and the traceability between them.

Synoptic-scale circulation patterns during summer derived from tree rings in mid-latitude Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seim, Andrea; Schultz, Johannes A.; Leland, Caroline; Davi, Nicole; Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa; Liang, Eryuan; Wang, Xiaochun; Beck, Christoph; Linderholm, Hans W.; Pederson, Neil

2017-09-01

Understanding past and recent climate and atmospheric circulation variability is vital for regions that are affected by climate extremes. In mid-latitude Asia, however, the synoptic climatology is complex and not yet fully understood. The aim of this study was to investigate dominant synoptic-scale circulation patterns during the summer season using a multi-species tree-ring width (TRW) network comprising 78 sites from mid-latitude Asia. For each TRW chronology, we calculated an atmospheric circulation tree-ring index (ACTI), based on 1000 hPa geopotential height data, to directly link tree growth to 13 summertime weather types and their associated local climate conditions for the period 1871-1993. Using the ACTI, three groups of similarly responding tree-ring sites can be associated with distinct large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns: 1. growth of drought sensitive trees is positively affected by a cyclone over northern Russia; 2. temperature sensitive trees show positive associations to a cyclone over northwestern Russia and an anticyclone over Mongolia; 3. trees at two high elevation sites show positive relations to a zonal cyclone extending from mid-latitude Eurasia to the West Pacific. The identified synoptic-scale circulation patterns showed spatiotemporal variability in their intensity and position, causing temporally varying climate conditions in mid-latitude Asia. Our results highlight that for regions with less pronounced atmospheric action centers during summer such as the occurrence of large-scale cyclones and anticyclones, synoptic-scale circulation patterns can be extracted and linked to the Northern Hemisphere circulation system. Thus, we provide a new and solid envelope for climate studies covering the past to the future.

Bone Marrow Synoptic Reporting for Hematologic Neoplasms: Guideline From the College of American Pathologists Pathology and Laboratory Quality Center.

PubMed

Sever, Cordelia; Abbott, Charles L; de Baca, Monica E; Khoury, Joseph D; Perkins, Sherrie L; Reichard, Kaaren Kemp; Taylor, Ann; Terebelo, Howard R; Colasacco, Carol; Rumble, R Bryan; Thomas, Nicole E

2016-09-01

-There is ample evidence from the solid tumor literature that synoptic reporting improves accuracy and completeness of relevant data. No evidence-based guidelines currently exist for synoptic reporting for bone marrow samples. -To develop evidence-based recommendations to standardize the basic components of a synoptic report template for bone marrow samples. -The College of American Pathologists Pathology and Laboratory Quality Center convened a panel of experts in hematopathology to develop recommendations. A systematic evidence review was conducted to address 5 key questions. Recommendations were derived from strength of evidence, open comment feedback, and expert panel consensus. -Nine guideline statements were established to provide pathology laboratories with a framework by which to develop synoptic reporting templates for bone marrow samples. The guideline calls for specific data groups in the synoptic section of the pathology report; provides a list of evidence-based parameters for key, pertinent elements; and addresses ancillary testing. -A framework for bone marrow synoptic reporting will improve completeness of the final report in a manner that is clear, succinct, and consistent among institutions.

Characteristics of the internal and external sources of the Mediterranean synoptic cyclones for the period 1956-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almazroui, Mansour; Awad, Adel M.; Nazrul Islam, M.

2017-07-01

This paper investigates the main sources and features of the Mediterranean synoptic cyclones affecting the basin, using the cyclone tracks. The cyclones' tracks are identified using sea level pressure (SLP) from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period 1956-2013. The identified cyclones are classified into two categories: basin affected and basin non-affected. Most of the basin-affected (non-affected) cyclones are internal (external), i.e., generated inside (outside) the Mediterranean basin. This study reveals four (five) main sources of internal (external) cyclones. These four (five) main sources generated about 63.76% (57.25%) of the internal (external) cyclones. Seasonal analysis shows that most of the basin-affected internal (external) cyclones were generated in the winter (spring) season. The lowest number of cyclones were found in the summer. Moreover, the synoptic study of the atmospheric systems accompanied the highest- and lowest-generated years demonstrates that the deepening of the north Europe cyclones and the relative positions of Azores- and Siberian-high systems represent the important factors that influence the number of internal cyclones. Essential factors influencing the external cyclones are the strength of the maximum upper wind, Azores high, Siberian high, and orientations of their ridges.

CENTER FOR CLIMATIC RESEARCH, UNIVERSITY OF DELAWARE

EPA Science Inventory

The synoptic climatology group performs research into a variety of applied climatological issues that affect humans and other organisms around the world. Synoptic climatology is essentially an holistic approach to weather and climate. Synoptic climatologists attempt to characteri...

A preliminary look at AVE-SESAME 5 conducted on 20-21 May 1979

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

July, M.; Turner, R. E.

1981-01-01

Information on data collected, synoptic conditions, and severe and unusual weather reported during the period are presented. Records of the synoptic conditions include synoptic charts, radar charts, satellite photographs, and rainfall observations.

Developing and diagnosing climate change indictors of regional aerosol optical properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sullivan, Ryan C.; Levy, Robert C.; da Silva, Arlindo M.; Pryor, Sara C.

2017-04-01

The US Global Change Research Program has developed climate indicators (CIs) to track changes in the physical, chemical, biological, and societal components of the climate system. Given the importance of atmospheric aerosol particles to clouds and radiative forcing, human mortality and morbidity, and biogeochemical cycles, we propose new aerosol particle CIs applicable to the US National Climate Assessment (NCA). Here we define these aerosol CIs and use them to quantify temporal trends in each NCA region. Furthermore, we use a synoptic classification (e.g., meteorological variables), and gas and particle emissions inventories to diagnose and attribute causes of observed changes. Our CIs are derived using output from the satellite-constrained Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application, Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis. MERRA-2 provides estimates of column-integrated aerosol optical properties at 0.625° by 0.5° resolution, including aerosol optical depth (AOD), Ångström exponent (AE), and single scattering albedo (SSA), which are related to aerosol loading, relative particle size, and chemical composition, respectively. For each NCA region, and for each aerosol variable, we derive statistics that describe mean and extreme values, as well as two metrics (spatial autocorrelation and coherence) that describe the spatial scales of aerosol variability. Consistent with previous analyses of aerosol precursor emissions and near-surface fine aerosol mass concentrations in the US, analyses of our aerosol CIs show that since 2000, both mean and extreme AOD have decreased over most NCA regions. There are significant (α = 0.05, using the non-parametric Kendall's tau) decreases in AOD for the Northeast (NE), Southeast (SE), Midwest (MW), and lower Great Plains (GPl) regions, and notable but not significant decreases in the Southwest (SW). AOD has increased for the Northwest (NW; significant) and upper Great Plains (GPu; not significant). Over all regions, there is a significant positive trend in AE (relative decrease in aerosol size) along with significant negative trend in SSA (relative decrease in scattering versus absorption extinction). Negative trends in AOD and SSA are consistent with documented decreases in sulfur dioxide emissions. Conversely, increased AOD in NW and GPu may reflect a lower impact of emissions standards in more remote regions, and/or that other aerosol and precursor sources (e.g., gas and oil extraction, wildfire frequency, long-range transport) may be increasing. Low AOD days are associated with dry, cool synoptic conditions. Since 2000, the structure of the aerosol field has changed. Using the Moran's I test, all regions exhibit declining spatial autocorrelation, suggesting AOD has become less uniform. At the same time, semivariogram models show that in many regions (NW, GPl, MW, SE) spatial coherence is increasing, and is consistent with an increase in the intensity of certain synoptic conditions. These results suggest that it is the variability in local emissions that accounts for the spatial structure of the AOD fields. However, more intense synoptic features are associated with more intense regional aerosol events.

A Geosynchronous Lidar System for Atmospheric Winds and Moisture Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Emmitt, G. D.

2001-01-01

An observing system comprised of two lidars in geosychronous orbit would enable the synoptic and meso-scale measurement of atmospheric winds and moisture both of which are key first-order variables of the Earth's weather equation. Simultaneous measurement of these parameters at fast revisit rates promises large advancements in our weather prediction skills. Such capabilities would be unprecedented and a) yield greatly improved and finer resolution initial conditions for models, b) make existing costly and cumbersome measurement approaches obsolete, and c) obviate the use of numerical techniques needed to correct data obtained using present observing systems. Additionally, simultaneous synoptic wind and moisture observations would lead to improvements in model parameterizations, and in our knowledge of small-scale weather processes. Technology and science data product assessments are ongoing. Results will be presented during the conference.

Inter-Annual Variability of the Acoustic Propagation in the Mediterranean Sea Identified from a Synoptic Monthly Gridded Database as Compared with GDEM

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

VARIABILITY OF THE ACOUSTIC PROPAGATION IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA IDENTIFIED FROM A SYNOPTIC MONTHLY GRIDDED DATABASE AS COMPARED WITH GDEM by...ANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE ACOUSTIC PROPAGATION IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA IDENTIFIED FROM A SYNOPTIC MONTHLY GRIDDED DATABASE AS COMPARED WITH GDEM 5...profiles obtained from the synoptic monthly gridded World Ocean Database (SMD-WOD) and Generalized Digital Environmental Model (GDEM) temperature (T

Photometric classification and redshift estimation of LSST Supernovae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Mi; Kuhlmann, Steve; Wang, Yun; Kovacs, Eve

2018-07-01

Supernova (SN) classification and redshift estimation using photometric data only have become very important for the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), given the large number of SNe that LSST will observe and the impossibility of spectroscopically following up all the SNe. We investigate the performance of an SN classifier that uses SN colours to classify LSST SNe with the Random Forest classification algorithm. Our classifier results in an area-under-the-curve of 0.98 which represents excellent classification. We are able to obtain a photometric SN sample containing 99 per cent SNe Ia by choosing a probability threshold. We estimate the photometric redshifts (photo-z) of SNe in our sample by fitting the SN light curves using the SALT2 model with nested sampling. We obtain a mean bias (⟨zphot - zspec⟩) of 0.012 with σ (z_phot-z_spec/1+z_spec) = 0.0294 without using a host-galaxy photo-z prior, and a mean bias (⟨zphot - zspec⟩) of 0.0017 with σ (z_phot-z_spec/1+z_spec) = 0.0116 using a host-galaxy photo-z prior. Assuming a flat ΛCDM model with Ωm = 0.3, we obtain Ωm of 0.305 ± 0.008 (statistical errors only), using the simulated LSST sample of photometric SNe Ia (with intrinsic scatter σint = 0.11) derived using our methodology without using host-galaxy photo-z prior. Our method will help boost the power of SNe from the LSST as cosmological probes.

Assessment of Error in Synoptic-Scale Diagnostics Derived from Wind Profiler and Radiosonde Network Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mace, Gerald G.; Ackerman, Thomas P.

1996-01-01

A topic of current practical interest is the accurate characterization of the synoptic-scale atmospheric state from wind profiler and radiosonde network observations. We have examined several related and commonly applied objective analysis techniques for performing this characterization and considered their associated level of uncertainty both from a theoretical and a practical standpoint. A case study is presented where two wind profiler triangles with nearly identical centroids and no common vertices produced strikingly different results during a 43-h period. We conclude that the uncertainty in objectively analyzed quantities can easily be as large as the expected synoptic-scale signal. In order to quantify the statistical precision of the algorithms, we conducted a realistic observing system simulation experiment using output from a mesoscale model. A simple parameterization for estimating the uncertainty in horizontal gradient quantities in terms of known errors in the objectively analyzed wind components and temperature is developed from these results.

Using Synoptic Systems' Typical Wind Trajectories for the Analysis of Potential Atmospheric Long-Distance Dispersal of Lumpy Skin Disease Virus.

PubMed

Klausner, Z; Fattal, E; Klement, E

2017-04-01

Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is an infectious, arthropod-borne virus that affects mostly cattle. Solitary outbreaks have occurred in Israel in 1989 and 2006. In both years, the outbreaks occurred parallel to a severe outbreak in Egypt, and LSDV was hypothesized to be transmitted from Egypt to Israel via long-distance dispersal (LDD) of infected vectors by wind. The aim of this study was to identify possible events of such transport. At the first stage, we identified the relevant synoptic systems that allowed wind transport from Egypt to Israel during the 3 months preceding each outbreak. Three-dimensional backwards Lagrangian trajectories were calculated from the receptor sites in Israel for each occurrence of such relevant synoptic system. The analysis revealed several events in which atmospheric connection routes between the affected locations in Egypt and Israel were established. Specifically, during the 1989, Damietta and Port Said stand out as likely sources for the outbreak in Israel. In 2006, different locations acted simultaneously as potential sources of the outbreak in Israel. These locations were situated in the Nile delta, the Suez Canal and in northern Sinai. The analysis pointed out Sharav low and Shallow Cyprus low to the North to be the most likely systems to enable windborne transport from Egypt to Israel. These findings are of high importance for the analysis of the risk of transmission of vectorborne viruses in the eastern Mediterranean region. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Regional severe particle pollution and its association with synoptic weather patterns in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu, Lei; Xie, Min; Gao, Da; Wang, Tijian; Fang, Dexian; Liu, Qian; Huang, Anning; Peng, Liwen

2017-11-01

Regional air pollution is significantly associated with dominant weather systems. In this study, the relationship between the particle pollution over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region and weather patterns is investigated. First, the pollution characteristics of particles in the YRD are studied using in situ monitoring data (PM2.5 and PM10) in 16 cities and Terra/MODIS AOD (aerosol optical depth) products collected from December 2013 to November 2014. The results show that the regional mean value of AOD is high in the YRD, with an annual mean value of 0.71±0.57. The annual mean particle concentrations in the cities of Jiangsu Province all exceed the national air quality standard. The pollution level is higher in inland areas, and the highest concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 are 79 and 130 µg m-3, respectively, in Nanjing. The PM2.5 : PM10 ratios are typically high, thus indicating that PM2.5 is the overwhelmingly dominant particle pollutant in the YRD. The wintertime peak of particle concentrations is tightly linked to the increased emissions during the heating season as well as adverse meteorological conditions. Second, based on NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis data, synoptic weather classification is conducted and five typical synoptic patterns are objectively identified. Finally, the synthetic analysis of meteorological fields and backward trajectories are applied to further clarify how these patterns impact particle concentrations. It is demonstrated that air pollution is more or less influenced by high-pressure systems. The relative position of the YRD to the anti-cyclonic circulation exerts significant effects on the air quality of the YRD. The YRD is largely influenced by polluted air masses from the northern and the southern inland areas when it is located at the rear of the East Asian major trough. The significant downward motion of air masses results in stable weather conditions, thereby hindering the diffusion of air pollutants. Thus, this pattern is quite favorable for the accumulation of pollutants in the YRD, resulting in higher regional mean PM10 (116.5 ± 66.9 µg m-3), PM2.5 (75.9 ± 49.9 µg m-3), and AOD (0.74) values. Moreover, this pattern is also responsible for the occurrence of most large-scale regional PM2.5 (70.4 %) and PM10 (78.3 %) pollution episodes. High wind speed and clean marine air masses may also play important roles in the mitigation of pollution in the YRD. Especially when the clean marine air masses account for a large proportion of all trajectories (i.e., when the YRD is affected by the cyclonic system or oceanic circulation), the air in the YRD has a lesser chance of being polluted. The observed correlation between weather patterns and particle pollution can provide valuable insight into making decisions about pollution control and mitigation strategies.

Contrasting environments associated with storm prediction center tornado outbreak forecasts using synoptic-scale composite analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, Alyssa Victoria

Tornado outbreaks have significant human impact, so it is imperative forecasts of these phenomena are accurate. As a synoptic setup lays the foundation for a forecast, synoptic-scale aspects of Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outbreak forecasts of varying accuracy were assessed. The percentages of the number of tornado outbreaks within SPC 10% tornado probability polygons were calculated. False alarm events were separately considered. The outbreaks were separated into quartiles using a point-in-polygon algorithm. Statistical composite fields were created to represent the synoptic conditions of these groups and facilitate comparison. Overall, temperature advection had the greatest differences between the groups. Additionally, there were significant differences in the jet streak strengths and amounts of vertical wind shear. The events forecasted with low accuracy consisted of the weakest synoptic-scale setups. These results suggest it is possible that events with weak synoptic setups should be regarded as areas of concern by tornado outbreak forecasters.

Characterizing relative humidity with respect to ice in midlatitude cirrus clouds as a function of atmospheric state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dzambo, Andrew M.; Turner, David D.

2016-10-01

Midlatitude cirrus cloud macrophysical and microphysical properties have been shown in previous studies to vary seasonally and in various large-scale dynamical regimes, but relative humidity with respect to ice (RHI) within cirrus clouds has not been studied extensively in this context. Using a combination of radiosonde and millimeter-wavelength cloud radar data, we identify 1076 cirrus clouds spanning a 7 year period from 2004 to 2011. These data are separated into five classes using a previously published algorithm that is based largely on synoptic conditions. Using these data and classification scheme, we find that RHI in cirrus clouds varies seasonally. Variations in cirrus cloud RHI exist within the prescribed classifications; however, most of the variations are within the measurement uncertainty. Additionally, with the exception of nonsummer class cirrus, these variations are not statistically significant. We also find that cirrus cloud occurrence is not necessarily correlated with higher observed values of RHI. The structure of RHI in cirrus clouds varies more in thicker clouds, which follows previous studies showing that macrophysical and microphysical variability increases in thicker cirrus clouds.

Synoptic Regulation of The 3 May 1999 Oklahoma Tornado Outbreak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, D. M.; Roebber, P. J.; Romero, R.

Despite the relatively successful long-lead-time forecasts of the storms during the 3 May 1999 tornadic outbreak in Oklahoma and Kansas, forecasters were unable to predict with confidence details concerning convective initiation and convective mode. The forecasters identified three synoptic processes they were monitoring for clues as to how the event would unfold. These elements were (a) the absence of strong surface convergence along a dryline in western Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle, (b) the presence of a cirrus shield that was hypothesized to limit surface heating, and (c) the arrival into Oklahoma of an upper-level wind-speed maximum (associated with the so- called southern PV anomaly) that was responsible for favorable synoptic-scale ascent and the cirrus shield. The Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model Version 5 (MM5) is used in forecast mode (using the operational AVN run data to provide initial and lateral boundary conditions) to explore the sen- sitivity of the outbreak to these features using simulations down to 2-km horizontal grid spacing. A 30-h control simulation is compared to the available observations and captures important qualitative characteristics of the event, including convective initi- ation east of the dryline and organization of mesoscale convective systems into long lived, long-track supercells. Additional simulations in which the initial strength of the southern PV anomaly is altered suggest that synoptic regulation of the 3 May 1999 event was imposed by the effects of the southern PV anomaly. The model results in- dicate that: (1) convective initiation in the weakly forced environment was achieved through modification of the existing cap through both surface heating and synoptic- scale ascent associated with the southern PV anomaly; (2) supercellular organization was supported regardless of the strength of the southern PV anomaly, although weak- to-moderate forcing from this feature was most conducive to the production of long lived supercells and strong forcing resulted in a trend toward linear mesoscale convec- tive systems; (3) the cirrus shield was important in limiting development of convection and reducing competition between storms.

Integrating Human and Machine Intelligence in Galaxy Morphology Classification Tasks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Melanie Renee

The large flood of data flowing from observatories presents significant challenges to astronomy and cosmology--challenges that will only be magnified by projects currently under development. Growth in both volume and velocity of astrophysics data is accelerating: whereas the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) has produced 60 terabytes of data in the last decade, the upcoming Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) plans to register 30 terabytes per night starting in the year 2020. Additionally, the Euclid Mission will acquire imaging for 5 x 107 resolvable galaxies. The field of galaxy evolution faces a particularly challenging future as complete understanding often cannot be reached without analysis of detailed morphological galaxy features. Historically, morphological analysis has relied on visual classification by astronomers, accessing the human brains capacity for advanced pattern recognition. However, this accurate but inefficient method falters when confronted with many thousands (or millions) of images. In the SDSS era, efforts to automate morphological classifications of galaxies (e.g., Conselice et al., 2000; Lotz et al., 2004) are reasonably successful and can distinguish between elliptical and disk-dominated galaxies with accuracies of 80%. While this is statistically very useful, a key problem with these methods is that they often cannot say which 80% of their samples are accurate. Furthermore, when confronted with the more complex task of identifying key substructure within galaxies, automated classification algorithms begin to fail. The Galaxy Zoo project uses a highly innovative approach to solving the scalability problem of visual classification. Displaying images of SDSS galaxies to volunteers via a simple and engaging web interface, www.galaxyzoo.org asks people to classify images by eye. Within the first year hundreds of thousands of members of the general public had classified each of the 1 million SDSS galaxies an average of 40 times. Galaxy Zoo thus solved both the visual classification problem of time efficiency and improved accuracy by producing a distribution of independent classifications for each galaxy. While crowd-sourced galaxy classifications have proven their worth, challenges remain before establishing this method as a critical and standard component of the data processing pipelines for the next generation of surveys. In particular, though innovative, crowd-sourcing techniques do not have the capacity to handle the data volume and rates expected in the next generation of surveys. These algorithms will be delegated to handle the majority of the classification tasks, freeing citizen scientists to contribute their efforts on subtler and more complex assignments. This thesis presents a solution through an integration of visual and automated classifications, preserving the best features of both human and machine. We demonstrate the effectiveness of such a system through a re-analysis of visual galaxy morphology classifications collected during the Galaxy Zoo 2 (GZ2) project. We reprocess the top-level question of the GZ2 decision tree with a Bayesian classification aggregation algorithm dubbed SWAP, originally developed for the Space Warps gravitational lens project. Through a simple binary classification scheme we increase the classification rate nearly 5-fold classifying 226,124 galaxies in 92 days of GZ2 project time while reproducing labels derived from GZ2 classification data with 95.7% accuracy. We next combine this with a Random Forest machine learning algorithm that learns on a suite of non-parametric morphology indicators widely used for automated morphologies. We develop a decision engine that delegates tasks between human and machine and demonstrate that the combined system provides a factor of 11.4 increase in the classification rate, classifying 210,803 galaxies in just 32 days of GZ2 project time with 93.1% accuracy. As the Random Forest algorithm requires a minimal amount of computational cost, this result has important implications for galaxy morphology identification tasks in the era of Euclid and other large-scale surveys.

Prediction of PM10 grades in Seoul, Korea using a neural network model based on synoptic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hur, S. K.; Oh, H. R.; Ho, C. H.; Kim, J.; Song, C. K.; Chang, L. S.; Lee, J. B.

2016-12-01

As of November 2014, the Korean Ministry of Environment (KME) started forecasting the level of ambient particulate matter with diameters ≤ 10 μm (PM10) as four grades: low (PM10 ≤ 30 μg m-3), moderate (30 < PM10 ≤ 80 μg m-3), high (80 < PM10 ≤ 150 μg m-3), and very high (PM10 > 150 μg m-3). Due to short history of forecast, overall performance of the operational forecasting system and its hit rate for the four PM10 grades are difficult to evaluate. In attempt to provide a statistical reference for the current air quality forecasting system, we hindcasted the four PM10 grades for the cold seasons (October-March) of 2001-2014 in Seoul, Korea using a neural network model based on the synoptic patterns of meteorological fields such as geopotential height, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind. In the form of cosine similarity, the distinctive synoptic patterns for each PM10 grades are well quantified as predictors to train the neural network model. Using these fields as predictors and considering the PM10 concentration in Seoul from the day before prediction as an additional predictor, an overall hit rate of 69% was achieved; the hit rates for the low, moderate, high, and very high PM10 grades were 33%, 83%, 45%, and 33%, respectively. This study reveals that the synoptic patterns of meteorological fields are useful predictors for the identification of favorable conditions for each PM10 grade, and the associated transboundary transport and local accumulation of PM10 from the industrialized regions of China. Consequently, the assessments of predictability obtained from the neural network model in this study are reliable to use as a statistical reference for the current air quality forecasting system.

Integration and verification testing of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope camera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lange, Travis; Bond, Tim; Chiang, James; Gilmore, Kirk; Digel, Seth; Dubois, Richard; Glanzman, Tom; Johnson, Tony; Lopez, Margaux; Newbry, Scott P.; Nordby, Martin E.; Rasmussen, Andrew P.; Reil, Kevin A.; Roodman, Aaron J.

2016-08-01

We present an overview of the Integration and Verification Testing activities of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) Camera at the SLAC National Accelerator Lab (SLAC). The LSST Camera, the sole instrument for LSST and under construction now, is comprised of a 3.2 Giga-pixel imager and a three element corrector with a 3.5 degree diameter field of view. LSST Camera Integration and Test will be taking place over the next four years, with final delivery to the LSST observatory anticipated in early 2020. We outline the planning for Integration and Test, describe some of the key verification hardware systems being developed, and identify some of the more complicated assembly/integration activities. Specific details of integration and verification hardware systems will be discussed, highlighting some of the technical challenges anticipated.

Cloud fraction at the ARM SGP site: Reducing uncertainty with self-organizing maps

DOE PAGES

Kennedy, Aaron D.; Dong, Xiquan; Xi, Baike

2015-02-15

Instrument downtime leads to uncertainty in the monthly and annual record of cloud fraction (CF), making it difficult to perform time series analyses of cloud properties and perform detailed evaluations of model simulations. As cloud occurrence is partially controlled by the large-scale atmospheric environment, this knowledge is used to reduce uncertainties in the instrument record. Synoptic patterns diagnosed from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) during the period 1997–2010 are classified using a competitive neural network known as the self-organizing map (SOM). The classified synoptic states are then compared to the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) instrumentmore » record to determine the expected CF. A number of SOMs are tested to understand how the number of classes and the period of classifications impact the relationship between classified states and CFs. Bootstrapping is utilized to quantify the uncertainty of the instrument record when statistical information from the SOM is included. Although all SOMs significantly reduce the uncertainty of the CF record calculated in Kennedy et al. (Theor Appl Climatol 115:91–105, 2014), SOMs with a large number of classes and separated by month are required to produce the lowest uncertainty and best agreement with the annual cycle of CF. Lastly, this result may be due to a manifestation of seasonally dependent biases in NARR.« less

Objective local weather types with applications on urban air pollution and on mortality with chronicle illnesses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mika, Janos; Ivady, Anett; Fulop, Andrea; Makra, László

2010-05-01

Synoptic climatology i.e. classification of the endless variability of the everyday weather states according to the pressure configuration and frontal systems relative to the point, or region of interest has long history in meteorology. Its logical alternative, i.e. classification of weather according to the observed local weather elements was less popular until the recent times when the numerical weather forecasts became able to outline not only the synoptic situation, but the near-surface meteorological variables, as well. Nowadays the computer-based statistical facilities are able to operate with matrices of multivariate diurnal samples, as well. The paper presents an attempt to define a set of local weather types using point-wise series at five rural stations, Szombathely, Pécs, Budapest, Szeged és Debrecen in the 1961-1990 reference period. Ten local variables are used, i.e. the diurnal mean temperature, the diurnal temperature range; the cloudiness, the sunshine duration, the water vapour pressure, the precipitation in a logarithmic scale, also differing trace (below 0.1 mm) and no precipitation, the relative humidity and wind speed, including the more extremity indicators of the two latter parameters, i.e. number of hours with over 80 % relative humidity and over 15 m/s wind gusts. Factor analysis of these ten variables was performed leading to 5 fairly independent variables retained for cluster analysis to obtain the local weather types. Hierarchical cluster analysis was performed to classify the 840-930 days within each month of the 30 years period. Furthers neighbour approach was preferred based on Euclidean metrics to establish optimum number of types. The 12 months and the 5 stations exhibited slightly different results but the optimum number of the types was always between 4 and 12 which is a quite reasonable number from practical considerations. According to a further reasonable compromise, the common number of the types not too bad in either stations or months defines that the common optimum number of local weather types is nine. This set of weather types, specified for each station, was used to "explain" the possible portion of local inter-diurnal variance of seven daily urban air quality measurements, i.e. CO, NO, NO2, NOx, O3, SO2 and PM10. Another set of data for testing the types are the mortalities with chronicle illnesses, i.e. cardio-vascular and respiratory illnesses. This set of 35 years data (1971-2005) is layered for capital city (Budapest, 2 million inhabitants) and rest of the countries (max. 200 000 inhab.). The use of complex weather types is likely better than the common use of individual weather elements, e.g. diurnal mean temperature or a kind of bioclimatic index. The ability of the types to decrease the variability is also compared for both sets of target variables to the analogous ability of macrosynoptic classification by Peczely. The results are also discussed by grouping the investigated contaminants according to their origin.

Synoptic meteorological modes of variability for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality in major metropolitan regions of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, Danny M.; Tai, Amos P. K.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Moch, Jonathan M.; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Shen, Lu; Martin, Randall V.

2018-05-01

In his study, we use a combination of multivariate statistical methods to understand the relationships of PM2.5 with local meteorology and synoptic weather patterns in different regions of China across various timescales. Using June 2014 to May 2017 daily total PM2.5 observations from ˜ 1500 monitors, all deseasonalized and detrended to focus on synoptic-scale variations, we find strong correlations of daily PM2.5 with all selected meteorological variables (e.g., positive correlation with temperature but negative correlation with sea-level pressure throughout China; positive and negative correlation with relative humidity in northern and southern China, respectively). The spatial patterns suggest that the apparent correlations with individual meteorological variables may arise from common association with synoptic systems. Based on a principal component analysis of 1998-2017 meteorological data to diagnose distinct meteorological modes that dominate synoptic weather in four major regions of China, we find strong correlations of PM2.5 with several synoptic modes that explain 10 to 40 % of daily PM2.5 variability. These modes include monsoonal flows and cold frontal passages in northern and central China associated with the Siberian High, onshore flows in eastern China, and frontal rainstorms in southern China. Using the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region as a case study, we further find strong interannual correlations of regionally averaged satellite-derived annual mean PM2.5 with annual mean relative humidity (RH; positive) and springtime fluctuation frequency of the Siberian High (negative). We apply the resulting PM2.5-to-climate sensitivities to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate projections to predict future PM2.5 by the 2050s due to climate change, and find a modest decrease of ˜ 0.5 µg m-3 in annual mean PM2.5 in the BTH region due to more frequent cold frontal ventilation under the RCP8.5 future, representing a small climate benefit, but the RH-induced PM2.5 change is inconclusive due to the large inter-model differences in RH projections.

Synoptic events force biological productivity in Patagonian fjord ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daneri, Giovanni

2016-04-01

The annual cycle of primary productivity of the Patagonian fjords has, to date, been described as a two phase system consisting of a short non productive winter phase (during June and July) and a productive phase extending from late winter (August) to autumn (May). Low levels of primary production, phytoplankton biomass and high concentrations of surface nutrients have been described as characterizing winter conditions while pulsed productivity events typifies the productivity pattern during the extended productive season. Pulsed productivity events characterize coastal waters where inorganic nutrients in surface layers are replenished following periods of intensive utilization by autotrophs. Freshwater input in Patagonian fjords in southern Chile (41-55°S) results in one of the largest estuarine regions worldwide. Here strong haline water column stratification prevents nutrient mixing to the surface layers thus potentially shutting off algal production. Our working hypothesis considered that in order to reconcile the observed pulsed productivity pattern, periodic breaking (associated to surface nutrient replenishment) and re-establishment of estuarine conditions (associated to water column stratification) would be required. Up to now however our understanding of the physical processes that control water column conditions in the Patagonian fjord area has been extremely limited. Here we present evidence linking the passage of synoptic low pressure fronts to pulsed productivity events in the Patagonian fjord area. These front controls and influence local processes of interaction between the fjord and the atmosphere generating a rapid water column response. In the specific case of the Puyuhuapi fjord we have been able to show that such synoptic fronts induce surface flow reversal and water column mixing. Phytoplankton blooming occurs after the passage of the synoptic front once calmer conditions prevail and estuarine conditions are re established. The occurrence of an extremely productive bloom of the dinoflagellate Heterocapsa sp. in July 2014, after the passage of a synoptic low pressure front provided, for the first time, strong evidence that phytoplankton blooming in the Patagonian fjord ecosystems is controlled by synoptic processes and that they are not limited by light as previously reported. This research was funded by COPAS Sur-Austral (PFB-31) and FONDECYT 1131063

The effect of latent heat release on synoptic-to-planetary wave interactions and its implication for satellite observations: Theoretical modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Branscome, Lee E.; Bleck, Rainer; Obrien, Enda

1990-01-01

The project objectives are to develop process models to investigate the interaction of planetary and synoptic-scale waves including the effects of latent heat release (precipitation), nonlinear dynamics, physical and boundary-layer processes, and large-scale topography; to determine the importance of latent heat release for temporal variability and time-mean behavior of planetary and synoptic-scale waves; to compare the model results with available observations of planetary and synoptic wave variability; and to assess the implications of the results for monitoring precipitation in oceanic-storm tracks by satellite observing systems. Researchers have utilized two different models for this project: a two-level quasi-geostrophic model to study intraseasonal variability, anomalous circulations and the seasonal cycle, and a 10-level, multi-wave primitive equation model to validate the two-level Q-G model and examine effects of convection, surface processes, and spherical geometry. It explicitly resolves several planetary and synoptic waves and includes specific humidity (as a predicted variable), moist convection, and large-scale precipitation. In the past year researchers have concentrated on experiments with the multi-level primitive equation model. The dynamical part of that model is similar to the spectral model used by the National Meteorological Center for medium-range forecasts. The model includes parameterizations of large-scale condensation and moist convection. To test the validity of results regarding the influence of convective precipitation, researchers can use either one of two different convective schemes in the model, a Kuo convective scheme or a modified Arakawa-Schubert scheme which includes downdrafts. By choosing one or the other scheme, they can evaluate the impact of the convective parameterization on the circulation. In the past year researchers performed a variety of initial-value experiments with the primitive-equation model. Using initial conditions typical of climatological winter conditions, they examined the behavior of synoptic and planetary waves growing in moist and dry environments. Surface conditions were representative of a zonally averaged ocean. They found that moist convection associated with baroclinic wave development was confined to the subtropics.

Relative contributions of synoptic and intraseasonal variations to strong cold events over eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Lei; Wu, Renguang; Jiao, Yang

2018-06-01

The present study investigates the relative roles of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) and synoptic variations in strong cold events over eastern China during the boreal winter. The ISOs and synoptic variations explain about 55% and 20% of the total area-mean temperature anomaly in eastern China, respectively. The advection of synoptic winds on synoptic temperature gradients has a leading contribution to the temperature decrease before the cold events and thus the synoptic variations are important in determining the time of peak cold anomalies. The ISOs have a larger role in sustaining the cold events. The height anomalies associated with ISOs and synoptic variations are manifested as Rossby wave trains propagating along the polar front jet over the Eurasian continent before the cold events. They both contribute to the deepening of the East Asian trough and the development of cold events. Compared to the ISO wave train, the synoptic wave train has a smaller spatial scale and moves faster. There are obvious intraseasonal signals in the stratosphere about 1 week before the cold events over eastern China. Large negative height anomalies associated with the weakening of the polar vortex are observed over the North Atlantic. These anomalies move eastwards and propagate downwards after reaching the west coast of Europe. The downward moving stratospheric signal triggers height anomalies in the troposphere over the entrance region of the polar front jet. Then the anomalies propagate towards East Asia along the wave train, contributing to the intensification of the Siberian high and the East Asian trough and the occurrence of cold events over eastern China.

Synoptic Sky Surveys: Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djorgovski, Stanislav G.; CRTS Team

2014-01-01

A new generation of synoptic sky surveys is now opening the time domain for a systematic exploration, presenting both great new scientific opportunities as well as the challenges. These surveys are touching essentially all subfields of astronomy, producing large statistical samples of the known types of objects and events (e.g., SNe, AGN, variable stars of many kinds), and have already uncovered previously unknown subtypes of these (e.g., rare or peculiar types of SNe). They are generating new science now, and paving the way for even larger surveys to come, e.g., the LSST. Our ability to fully exploit such forthcoming facilities depends critically on the science, methodology, and experience that are being accumulated now. Among the outstanding challenges the foremost is our ability to conduct an effective follow-up of the interesting events discovered by the surveys in any wavelength regime. The follow-up resources, especially spectroscopy, are already be severely limited, and this problem will grow by orders of magnitude. This requires an intelligent down-selection of the most astrophysically interesting events to follow. The first step in that process is an automated, real-time, iterative classification of transient events, that incorporates heterogeneous data from the surveys themselves, archival information (spatial, temporal, and multiwavelength), and the incoming follow-up observations. The second step is an optimal automated event prioritization and allocation of the available follow-up resources that also change in time. Both of these challenges are highly non-trivial, and require a strong cyber-infrastructure based on the Virtual Observatory data grid, and the various astroinformatics efforts now under way. This is inherently an astronomy of telescope-computational systems, that increasingly depends on novel machine learning and artificial intelligence tools. Another arena with a strong potential for discovery is an archival, non-time-critical exploration of the time domain, with the time dimension adding the complexity to an already challenging problem of data mining of highly-dimensional data parameter spaces.

Convolutional neural networks for transient candidate vetting in large-scale surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gieseke, Fabian; Bloemen, Steven; van den Bogaard, Cas; Heskes, Tom; Kindler, Jonas; Scalzo, Richard A.; Ribeiro, Valério A. R. M.; van Roestel, Jan; Groot, Paul J.; Yuan, Fang; Möller, Anais; Tucker, Brad E.

2017-12-01

Current synoptic sky surveys monitor large areas of the sky to find variable and transient astronomical sources. As the number of detections per night at a single telescope easily exceeds several thousand, current detection pipelines make intensive use of machine learning algorithms to classify the detected objects and to filter out the most interesting candidates. A number of upcoming surveys will produce up to three orders of magnitude more data, which renders high-precision classification systems essential to reduce the manual and, hence, expensive vetting by human experts. We present an approach based on convolutional neural networks to discriminate between true astrophysical sources and artefacts in reference-subtracted optical images. We show that relatively simple networks are already competitive with state-of-the-art systems and that their quality can further be improved via slightly deeper networks and additional pre-processing steps - eventually yielding models outperforming state-of-the-art systems. In particular, our best model correctly classifies about 97.3 per cent of all 'real' and 99.7 per cent of all 'bogus' instances on a test set containing 1942 'bogus' and 227 'real' instances in total. Furthermore, the networks considered in this work can also successfully classify these objects at hand without relying on difference images, which might pave the way for future detection pipelines not containing image subtraction steps at all.

Systems engineering in the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope project: an application of model based systems engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Claver, C. F.; Selvy, Brian M.; Angeli, George; Delgado, Francisco; Dubois-Felsmann, Gregory; Hascall, Patrick; Lotz, Paul; Marshall, Stuart; Schumacher, German; Sebag, Jacques

2014-08-01

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope project was an early adopter of SysML and Model Based Systems Engineering practices. The LSST project began using MBSE for requirements engineering beginning in 2006 shortly after the initial release of the first SysML standard. Out of this early work the LSST's MBSE effort has grown to include system requirements, operational use cases, physical system definition, interfaces, and system states along with behavior sequences and activities. In this paper we describe our approach and methodology for cross-linking these system elements over the three classical systems engineering domains - requirement, functional and physical - into the LSST System Architecture model. We also show how this model is used as the central element to the overall project systems engineering effort. More recently we have begun to use the cross-linked modeled system architecture to develop and plan the system verification and test process. In presenting this work we also describe "lessons learned" from several missteps the project has had with MBSE. Lastly, we conclude by summarizing the overall status of the LSST's System Architecture model and our plans for the future as the LSST heads toward construction.

Regional climates in the GISS global circulation model - Synoptic-scale circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hewitson, B.; Crane, R. G.

1992-01-01

A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs) is their perceived inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global-scale change, and it is these regional-scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human-environmental response. For large areas of the extratropics, the local climate is controlled by the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation, and it is the purpose of this paper to evaluate the synoptic-scale circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. A methodology for validating the daily synoptic circulation using Principal Component Analysis is described, and the methodology is then applied to the GCM simulation of sea level pressure over the continental United States (excluding Alaska). The analysis demonstrates that the GISS 4 x 5 deg GCM Model II effectively simulates the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation over the United States. The modes of variance describing the atmospheric circulation of the model are comparable to those found in the observed data, and these modes explain similar amounts of variance in their respective datasets. The temporal behavior of these circulation modes in the synoptic time frame are also comparable.

Energy transformations associated with the synoptic and planetary scales during the evolution of a blocking anticyclone and an upstream explosively-developing cyclone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Phillip J.; Tsou, Chih-Hua

1992-01-01

The eddy kinetic energy (KE), release of eddy potential energy, generation of eddy kinetic energy, and exchange between eddy and zonal kinetic energy are investigated for a blocking anticyclone over the North Atlantic Ocean and an extratropical cyclone that developed during January 17-21, 1979. The results indicate that KE was maintained by baroclinic conversion of potential to kinetic. As released potential energy was being used to generate KE, a portion of the KE was barotropically converted to zonal KE. These transformations were dominated by the synoptic-scale component. While changes in the mass field depended not only on the synoptic scale but also on the interactions between the synoptic and planetary scales, the corresponding changes in the eddy motion fields responded largely to synoptic-scale processes.

A Comparison of Synoptic Classification Methods for Application to Wind Power Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, P.; Basu, S.

2008-12-01

Wind energy is a highly variable resource. To make it competitive with other sources of energy for integration on the power grid, at the very least, a day-ahead forecast of power output must be available. In many grid operations worldwide, next-day power output is scheduled in 30 minute intervals and grid management routinely occurs at real time. Maintenance and repairs require costly time to complete and must be scheduled along with normal operations. Revenue is dependent on the reliability of the entire system. In other words, there is financial and managerial benefit to short-term prediction of wind power. One approach to short-term forecasting is to combine a data centric method such as an artificial neural network with a physically based approach like numerical weather prediction (NWP). The key is in associating high-dimensional NWP model output with the most appropriately trained neural network. Because neural networks perform the best in the situations they are designed for, one can hypothesize that if one can identify similar recurring states in historical weather data, this data can be used to train multiple custom designed neural networks to be used when called upon by numerical prediction. Identifying similar recurring states may offer insight to how a neural network forecast can be improved, but amassing the knowledge and utilizing it efficiently in the time required for power prediction would be difficult for a human to master, thus showing the advantage of classification. Classification methods are important tools for short-term forecasting because they can be unsupervised, objective, and computationally quick. They primarily involve categorizing data sets in to dominant weather classes, but there are numerous ways to define a class and a great variety in interpretation of the results. In the present study a collection of classification methods are used on a sampling of atmospheric variables from the North American Regional Reanalysis data set. The results will be discussed in relation to their use for short-term wind power forecasting by neural networks.

Moist synoptic transport of carbon dioxide along midlatitude storm tracks, transport uncertainty, and implications for carbon dioxide flux estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parazoo, Nicholas C.

Mass transport along moist isentropic surfaces on baroclinic waves represents an important component of the atmospheric heat engine that operates between the equator and poles. This is also an important vehicle for tracer transport, and is correlated with ecosystem metabolism because large-scale baroclinicity and photosynthesis are both driven seasonally by variations in solar radiation. In this research, I pursue a dynamical framework for explaining atmospheric transport of CO2 by synoptic weather systems at middle and high latitudes. A global model of atmospheric tracer transport, driven by meteorological analysis in combination with a detailed description of surface fluxes, is used to create time varying CO2 distributions in the atmosphere. Simulated mass fluxes of CO2 are then decomposed into a zonal monthly mean component and deviations from the monthly mean in space and time. Mass fluxes of CO2 are described on moist isentropic surfaces to represent frontal transport along storm tracks. Forward simulations suggest that synoptic weather systems transport large amounts of CO2 north and south in northern mid-latitudes, up to 1 PgC month-1 during winter when baroclinic wave activity peaks. During boreal winter when northern plants respire, warm moist air, high in CO2, is swept upward and poleward along the east side of baroclinic waves and injected into the polar vortex, while cold dry air, low in CO 2, that had been transported into the polar vortex earlier in the year is advected equatorward. These synoptic eddies act to strongly reduce seasonality of CO2 in the biologically active mid-latitudes by 50% of that implied by local net ecosystem exchange while correspondingly amplifying seasonality in the Arctic. Transport along stormtracks is correlated with rising, moist, cloudy air, which systematically hides this CO2 transport from satellite observing systems. Meridional fluxes of CO2 are of comparable magnitude as surface exchange of CO2 in mid-latitudes, and thus require careful consideration in (inverse) modeling of the carbon cycle. Because synoptic transport of CO2 by frontal systems and moist processes is generally unobserved and poorly represented in global models, it may be a source of error for inverse flux estimates. Uncertainty in CO 2 transport by synoptic eddies is investigated using a global model driven by four reanalysis products from the Goddard EOS Data Assimilation System for 2005. Eddy transport is found to be highly variable between model analysis, with significant seasonal differences of up to 0.2 PgC, which represents up to 50% of fossil fuel emissions. The variations are caused primarily by differences in grid spacing and vertical mixing by moist convection and PBL turbulence. To test for aliasing of transport bias into inverse flux estimates, synthetic satellite data is generated using a model at 50 km global resolution and inverted using a global model run with coarse grid transport. An ensemble filtering method called the Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Filter (MLEF) is used to optimize fluxes. Flux estimates are found to be highly sensitive to transport biases at pixel and continental scale, with errors of up to 0.5 PgC year-1 in Europe and North America.

Ways of Viewing Pictorial Plasticity

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The plastic effect is historically used to denote various forms of stereopsis. The vivid impression of depth often associated with binocular stereopsis can also be achieved in other ways, for example, using a synopter. Accounts of this go back over a hundred years. These ways of viewing all aim to diminish sensorial evidence that the picture is physically flat. Although various viewing modes have been proposed in the literature, their effects have never been compared. In the current study, we compared three viewing modes: monocular blur, synoptic viewing, and free viewing (using a placebo synopter). By designing a physical embodiment that was indistinguishable for the three experimental conditions, we kept observers naïve with respect to the differences between them; 197 observers participated in an experiment where the three viewing modes were compared by performing a rating task. Results indicate that synoptic viewing causes the largest plastic effect. Monocular blur scores lower than synoptic viewing but is still rated significantly higher than the baseline conditions. The results strengthen the idea that synoptic viewing is not due to a placebo effect. Furthermore, monocular blur has been verified for the first time as a way of experiencing the plastic effect, although the effect is smaller than synoptic viewing. We discuss the results with respect to the theoretical basis for the plastic effect. We show that current theories are not described with sufficient details to explain the differences we found. PMID:28491270

Development of a synoptic MRI report for primary rectal cancer.

PubMed

Spiegle, Gillian; Leon-Carlyle, Marisa; Schmocker, Selina; Fruitman, Mark; Milot, Laurent; Gagliardi, Anna R; Smith, Andy J; McLeod, Robin S; Kennedy, Erin D

2009-12-02

Although magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is an important imaging modality for pre-operative staging and surgical planning of rectal cancer, to date there has been little investigation on the completeness and overall quality of MRI reports. This is important because optimal patient care depends on the quality of the MRI report and clear communication of these reports to treating physicians. Previous work has shown that the use of synoptic pathology reports improves the quality of pathology reports and communication between physicians. The aims of this project are to develop a synoptic MRI report for rectal cancer and determine the enablers and barriers toward the implementation of a synoptic MRI report for rectal cancer in the clinical setting. A three-step Delphi process with an expert panel will extract the key criteria for the MRI report to guide pre-operative chemoradiation and surgical planning following a review of the literature, and a synoptic template will be developed. Furthermore, standardized qualitative research methods will be used to conduct interviews with radiologists to determine the enablers and barriers to the implementation and sustainability of the synoptic MRI report in the clinic setting. Synoptic MRI reports for rectal cancer are currently not used in North America and may improve the overall quality of MRI report and communication between physicians. This may, in turn, lead to improved patient care and outcomes for rectal cancer patients.

Tropical synoptic composites in VAS, OLR and TOVS radiance data. [VISSR Atmospheric Sounder, Outgoing Long-wave Radiation, Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcguirk, James P.

1989-01-01

The horizontal structure of specific tropical synoptic features are compared with the features of a zonal mean ITCZ using four different forms of satellite radiance data: daily gridded OLR data, GOES VAS water vapor imagery, brightness temperatures from TOVS water vapor channels (6.7 and 7.3 microns), and brightness temperature vectors for a complete set of TOVS channels. All of the data are composited over many events to minimize the effects of missing data, sampling errors, and system variability. The major differences between the observing systems are examined, focusing on resolution and clouds. It is found that the ITCZ exhibits a zonally symmetric convective phase and an enhanced regional convective phase (plumes), both of which can be differentiated from climatological mean behavior.

Multiplatform sampling (ship, aircraft, and satellite) of a Gulf Stream warm core ring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Raymond C.; Brown, Otis B.; Hoge, Frank E.; Baker, Karen S.; Evans, Robert H.

1987-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the ability to meet the need to measure distributions of physical and biological properties of the ocean over large areas synoptically and over long time periods by means of remote sensing utilizing contemporaneous buoy, ship, aircraft, and satellite (i.e., multiplatform) sampling strategies. A mapping of sea surface temperature and chlorophyll fields in a Gulf Stream warm core ring using the multiplatform approach is described. Sampling capabilities of each sensing system are discussed as background for the data collected by means of these three dissimilar methods. Commensurate space/time sample sets from each sensing system are compared, and their relative accuracies in space and time are determined. The three-dimensional composite maps derived from the data set provide a synoptic perspective unobtainable from single platforms alone.

Objectively classifying Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catto, Jennifer

2016-04-01

There has been a long tradition in attempting to separate extratropical cyclones into different classes depending on their cloud signatures, airflows, synoptic precursors, or upper-level flow features. Depending on these features, the cyclones may have different impacts, for example in their precipitation intensity. It is important, therefore, to understand how the distribution of different cyclone classes may change in the future. Many of the previous classifications have been performed manually. In order to be able to evaluate climate models and understand how extratropical cyclones might change in the future, we need to be able to use an automated method to classify cyclones. Extratropical cyclones have been identified in the Southern Hemisphere from the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset with a commonly used identification and tracking algorithm that employs 850 hPa relative vorticity. A clustering method applied to large-scale fields from ERA-Interim at the time of cyclone genesis (when the cyclone is first detected), has been used to objectively classify identified cyclones. The results are compared to the manual classification of Sinclair and Revell (2000) and the four objectively identified classes shown in this presentation are found to match well. The relative importance of diabatic heating in the clusters is investigated, as well as the differing precipitation characteristics. The success of the objective classification shows its utility in climate model evaluation and climate change studies.

Forecast skill of synoptic conditions associated with Santa Ana winds in Southern California

Treesearch

Charles Jones; Francis Fujioka; Leila M.V. Carvalho

2010-01-01

Santa Ana winds (SAW) are synoptically driven mesoscale winds observed in Southern California usually during late fall and winter. Because of the complex topography of the region, SAW episodes can sometimes be extremely intense and pose significant environmental hazards, especially during wildfire incidents. A simple set of criteria was used to identify synoptic-scale...

A Model Based Analysis of the Role of an Upper-Level Front and Stratospheric Intrusion in the Mack Lake Fire

Treesearch

Tarisa K. Zimet; Jonathan E. Martin

2003-01-01

Meteorological assessment of wildfire risk has traditionally involved identification of several synoptic types empirically determined to influence wildfire spread. Such weather types are characterized by identifiable synoptic-scale structures and processes. Schroeder et. al. (1964) identified four recognizable synoptic-scale patterns that contribute most frequently to...

Photometric classification and redshift estimation of LSST Supernovae

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dai, Mi; Kuhlmann, Steve; Wang, Yun

Supernova (SN) classification and redshift estimation using photometric data only have become very important for the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), given the large number of SNe that LSST will observe and the impossibility of spectroscopically following up all the SNe. We investigate the performance of an SN classifier that uses SN colours to classify LSST SNe with the Random Forest classification algorithm. Our classifier results in an area-under-the-curve of 0.98 which represents excellent classification. We are able to obtain a photometric SN sample containing 99 percent SNe Ia by choosing a probability threshold. We estimate the photometric redshifts (photo-z)more » of SNe in our sample by fitting the SN light curves using the SALT2 model with nested sampling. We obtain a mean bias (⟨zphot - zspec⟩) of 0.012 with σ(z phot -z spec 1+z spec )=0.0294 σ(zphot-zspec1+zspec)=0.0294 without using a host-galaxy photo-z prior, and a mean bias (⟨zphot - zspec⟩) of 0.0017 with σ(z phot -z spec 1+z spec )=0.0116 σ(zphot-zspec1+zspec)=0.0116 using a host-galaxy photo-z prior. Assuming a flat ΛCDM model with Ωm = 0.3, we obtain Ωm of 0.305 ± 0.008 (statistical errors only), using the simulated LSST sample of photometric SNe Ia (with intrinsic scatter σint = 0.11) derived using our methodology without using host-galaxy photo-z prior. Our method will help boost the power of SNe from the LSST as cosmological probes.« less

An Air Mass Based Approach to the Establishment of Spring Season Synoptic Characteristics in the Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zander, R.; Messina, A.; Godek, M. L.

2012-12-01

The spring season is indicative of marked meteorological, ecological, and biological changes across the Northeast United States. The onset of spring coincides with distinct meteorological phenomena including an increase in severe weather events and snow meltwaters that can cause localized flooding and other costly damages. Increasing and variable springtime temperatures also influence Northeast tourist operations and agricultural productivity. Even with the vested interest of industry in the season and public awareness of the dynamic characteristics of spring, the definition of spring remains somewhat arbitrary. The primary goal of this research is to obtain a synoptic meteorological definition of the spring season through an assessment of air mass frequency over the past 60 years. A secondary goal examines the validity of recent speculations that the onset and termination of spring has changed in recent decades, particularly since 1975. The Spatial Synoptic Classification is utilized to define daily air masses over the region. Annual and seasonal baseline frequencies are identified and their differences are acquired to characterize the season. Seasonal frequency departures of the early and late segments of the period of record around 1975 are calculated and examined for practical and statistical significance. The daily boundaries of early and late spring are then isolated and frequencies are obtained for these periods. Boundary frequencies are assessed across the period of record to identify important changes in the season's initiation and termination through time. Results indicate that the Northeast spring season is dominated by dry air masses, mainly the Dry Moderate and Dry Polar types. Significant differences in seasonal air mass frequency are also observed through time. Prior to 1975, higher frequencies of polar air mass types are detected while after 1975 there is an increase in the frequencies of both moderate and tropical types. This finding is also identified for the onset of spring. Late spring frequencies are similar but with more variability in all moist variety air mass frequencies. These findings indicate that, from a synoptic perspective, springs in the Northeast can be defined by dry air mass conditions through time but modern springs are also warmer than those of past decades and the initiation of the season is likely arriving earlier. The end of the Northeast spring season may also be represented by more variable day-to-day air mass conditions in modern times than detected in past decades. 1950 - 1975 (black) and 1976 - 2010 (gray) Philadelphia, PA Spring air mass frequency (%).

Coralline reefs classification in Banco Chinchorro, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contreras-Silva, Ameris I.; López-Caloca, Alejandra A.

2009-09-01

The coralline reefs in Banco Chinchorro, Mexico, are part of the great reef belt of the western Atlantic. This reef complex is formed by an extensive coralline structure with great biological richness and diversity of species. These colonies are considered highly valuable ecologically, economically, socially and culturally, and they also inherently provide biological services. Fishing and scuba diving have been the main economic activities in this area for decades. However, in recent years, there has been a bleaching process and a decrease of the coral colonies in Quintana Roo, Mexico. This drop is caused mainly by the production activities performed in the oil platforms and the presence of hurricanes among other climatic events. The deterioration of the reef system can be analyzed synoptically using remote sensing. Thanks to this type of analysis, it is possible to have updated information of the reef conditions. In this paper, satellite imagery in Landsat TM and SPOT 5 is applied in the coralline reefs classification in the 1980- 2006 time period. Thus, an integral analysis of the optical components of the water surrounding the coralline reefs, such as on phytoplankton, sediments, yellow substance and even on the same water adjacent to the coral colonies, is performed. The use of a texture algorithm (Markov Random Field) was a key tool for their identification. This algorithm, does not limit itself to image segmentation, but also works on edge detection. In future work the multitemporal analysis of the results will determine the deterioration degree of these habitats and the conservation status of the coralline areas.

Extreme weather events in southern Germany - Climatological risk and development of a large-scale identification procedure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthies, A.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Rohlfing, G.; Ulbrich, U.

2009-04-01

Extreme weather events such as thunderstorms, hail and heavy rain or snowfall can pose a threat to human life and to considerable tangible assets. Yet there is a lack of knowledge about present day climatological risk and its economic effects, and its changes due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Therefore, parts of economy particularly sensitve to extreme weather events such as insurance companies and airports require regional risk-analyses, early warning and prediction systems to cope with such events. Such an attempt is made for southern Germany, in close cooperation with stakeholders. Comparing ERA40 and station data with impact records of Munich Re and Munich Airport, the 90th percentile was found to be a suitable threshold for extreme impact relevant precipitation events. Different methods for the classification of causing synoptic situations have been tested on ERA40 reanalyses. An objective scheme for the classification of Lamb's circulation weather types (CWT's) has proved to be most suitable for correct classification of the large-scale flow conditions. Certain CWT's have been turned out to be prone to heavy precipitation or on the other side to have a very low risk of such events. Other large-scale parameters are tested in connection with CWT's to find out a combination that has the highest skill to identify extreme precipitation events in climate model data (ECHAM5 and CLM). For example vorticity advection in 700 hPa shows good results, but assumes knowledge of regional orographic particularities. Therefore ongoing work is focused on additional testing of parameters that indicate deviations of a basic state of the atmosphere like the Eady Growth Rate or the newly developed Dynamic State Index. Evaluation results will be used to estimate the skill of the regional climate model CLM concerning the simulation of frequency and intensity of the extreme weather events. Data of the A1B scenario (2000-2050) will be examined for a possible climate change signal.

Tomographic Sounding of Protoplanetary and Transitional Disks: Using Inner Disk Variability at Near to Mid-IR Wavelengths to Probe Conditions in the Outer Disk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grady, C. A.; Sitko, M.L.

2013-01-01

Spitzer synoptic monitoring of young stellar associations has demonstrated that variability among young stars and their disks is ubiquitous. The Spitzer studies have been limited by target visibility windows and cover only a short temporal baseline in years. A complementary approach is to focus on stars chosen for high-value observations (e.g. high-contrast imaging, interferometry, or access to wavelengths which are difficult to achieve from the ground) where the synoptic data can augment the imagery or interferometry as well as probing disk structure. In this talk, we discuss how synoptic data for two protoplanetary disks, MWC 480 and HD 163296, constrain the dust disk scale height, account for variable disk illumination, and can be used to locate emission features, such as the IR bands commonly associated with PAHs in the disk, as part of our SOFIA cycle 1 study. Similar variability is now known for several pre-transitional disks, where synoptic data can be used to identify inner disks which are not coplanar with the outer disk, and which may be relicts of giant planet-giant planet scattering events. Despite the logistical difficulties in arranging supporting, coordinated observations in tandem with high-value observations, such data have allowed us to place imagery in context, constrained structures in inner disks not accessible to direct imagery, and may be a tool for identifying systems where planet scattering events have occurred.

Mesoscale Dynamical Regimes in the Midlatitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craig, G. C.; Selz, T.

2018-01-01

The atmospheric mesoscales are characterized by a complex variety of meteorological phenomena that defy simple classification. Here a full space-time spectral analysis is carried out, based on a 7 day convection-permitting simulation of springtime midlatitude weather on a large domain. The kinetic energy is largest at synoptic scales, and on the mesoscale it is largely confined to an "advective band" where space and time scales are related by a constant of proportionality which corresponds to a velocity scale of about 10 m s-1. Computing the relative magnitude of different terms in the governing equations allows the identification of five dynamical regimes. These are tentatively identified as quasi-geostrophic flow, propagating gravity waves, stationary gravity waves related to orography, acoustic modes, and a weak temperature gradient regime, where vertical motions are forced by diabatic heating.

The Analysis, Numerical Simulation, and Diagnosis of Extratropical Weather Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-09-30

The Analysis, Numerical Simulation, and Diagnosis of Extratropical Weather Systems Dr. Melvyn A. Shapiro NOAA/Environmental Technology Laboratory...formulation, and numerical prediction of the life cycles of synoptic-scale and mesoscale extratropical weather systems, including the influence of planetary...scale inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability on their evolution. These weather systems include: extratropical oceanic and land-falling cyclones

VERIFICATION OF SURFACE LAYER OZONE FORECASTS IN THE NOAA/EPA AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM IN DIFFERENT REGIONS UNDER DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC SCENARIOS

EPA Science Inventory

An air quality forecast (AQF) system has been established at NOAA/NCEP since 2003 as a collaborative effort of NOAA and EPA. The system is based on NCEP's Eta mesoscale meteorological model and EPA's CMAQ air quality model (Davidson et al, 2004). The vision behind this system is ...

Multi-level factors influence the implementation and use of complex innovations in cancer care: a multiple case study of synoptic reporting.

PubMed

Urquhart, Robin; Porter, Geoffrey A; Sargeant, Joan; Jackson, Lois; Grunfeld, Eva

2014-09-16

The implementation of innovations (i.e., new tools and practices) in healthcare organizations remains a significant challenge. The objective of this study was to examine the key interpersonal, organizational, and system level factors that influenced the implementation and use of synoptic reporting tools in three specific areas of cancer care. Using case study methodology, we studied three cases in Nova Scotia, Canada, wherein synoptic reporting tools were implemented within clinical departments/programs. Synoptic reporting tools capture and present information about a medical or surgical procedure in a structured, checklist-like format and typically report only items critical for understanding the disease and subsequent impacts on patient care. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with key informants, document analysis, nonparticipant observation, and tool use/examination. Analysis involved production of case histories, in-depth analysis of each case, and a cross-case analysis. Numerous techniques were used during the research design, data collection, and data analysis stages to increase the rigour of this study. The analysis revealed five common factors that were particularly influential to implementation and use of synoptic reporting tools across the three cases: stakeholder involvement, managing the change process (e.g., building demand, communication, training and support), champions and respected colleagues, administrative and managerial support, and innovation attributes (e.g., complexity, compatibility with interests and values). The direction of influence (facilitating or impeding) of each of these factors differed across and within cases. The findings demonstrate the importance of a multi-level contextual analysis to gaining both breadth and depth to our understanding of innovation implementation and use in health care. They also provide new insights into several important issues under-reported in the literature on moving innovations into healthcare practice, including the role of middle managers in implementation efforts and the importance of attending to the interpersonal aspects of implementation.

A Hierarchical and Dynamic Seascape Framework for Scaling and Comparing Ocean Biodiversity Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavanaugh, M.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Montes, E.; Santora, J. A.; Chavez, F.; Messié, M.; Doney, S. C.

2016-02-01

The pelagic ocean is a complex system in which physical, chemical and biological processes interact to shape patterns on multiple spatial and temporal scales and levels of ecological organization. Monitoring and management of marine seascapes must consider a hierarchical and dynamic mosaic, where the boundaries, extent, and location of features change with time. As part of a Marine Biodiversity Observing Network demonstration project, we conducted a multiscale classification of dynamic coastal seascapes in the northeastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico using multivariate satellite and modeled data. Synoptic patterns were validated using mooring and ship-based observations that spanned multiple trophic levels and were collected as part of several long-term monitoring programs, including the Monterey Bay and Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuaries. Seascape extent and habitat diversity varied as a function of both seasonal and interannual forcing. We discuss the patterns of in situ observations in the context of seascape dynamics and the effect on rarefaction, spatial patchiness, and tracking and comparing ecosystems through time. A seascape framework presents an effective means to translate local biodiversity measurements to broader spatiotemporal scales, scales relevant for modeling the effects of global change and enabling whole-ecosystem management in the dynamic ocean.

The Potential Observation Network Design with Mesoscale Ensemble Sensitivities in Complex Terrain

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

in synoptic storms , extratropical transition and developing hurricanes. Because they rely on lagged covariances from a finite-sized ensemble, they...diagnose predictors of forecast error in synoptic storms , extratropical transition and developing hurricanes. Because they rely on lagged covariances...sensitivities can be used successfully to diagnose predictors of forecast error in synoptic storms (Torn and Hakim 2008), extratropical transition (Torn and

Synoptic-scale and mesoscale environments conducive to forest fires during the October 2003 extreme fire event in Southern California

Treesearch

Chenjie Huang; Y.L. Lin; M.L. Kaplan; Joseph J.J. Charney

2009-01-01

This study has employed both observational data and numerical simulation results to diagnose the synoptic-scale and mesoscale environments conducive to forest fires during the October 2003 extreme fire event in southern California. A three-stage process is proposed to illustrate the coupling of the synoptic-scale forcing that is evident from the observations,...

Cloud fraction at the ARM SGP site: reducing uncertainty with self-organizing maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, Aaron D.; Dong, Xiquan; Xi, Baike

2016-04-01

Instrument downtime leads to uncertainty in the monthly and annual record of cloud fraction (CF), making it difficult to perform time series analyses of cloud properties and perform detailed evaluations of model simulations. As cloud occurrence is partially controlled by the large-scale atmospheric environment, this knowledge is used to reduce uncertainties in the instrument record. Synoptic patterns diagnosed from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) during the period 1997-2010 are classified using a competitive neural network known as the self-organizing map (SOM). The classified synoptic states are then compared to the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) instrument record to determine the expected CF. A number of SOMs are tested to understand how the number of classes and the period of classifications impact the relationship between classified states and CFs. Bootstrapping is utilized to quantify the uncertainty of the instrument record when statistical information from the SOM is included. Although all SOMs significantly reduce the uncertainty of the CF record calculated in Kennedy et al. (Theor Appl Climatol 115:91-105, 2014), SOMs with a large number of classes and separated by month are required to produce the lowest uncertainty and best agreement with the annual cycle of CF. This result may be due to a manifestation of seasonally dependent biases in NARR. With use of the SOMs, the average uncertainty in monthly CF is reduced in half from the values calculated in Kennedy et al. (Theor Appl Climatol 115:91-105, 2014).

Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, Noelia Felipe; Sillmann, Jana; Schnell, Jordan L.; Rust, Henning W.; Butler, Tim

2016-04-01

The present work assesses the relationship between local and synoptic meteorological conditions and surface ozone concentration over Europe in spring and summer months, during the period 1998-2012 using a new interpolated data set of observed surface ozone concentrations over the European domain. Along with local meteorological conditions, the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on surface ozone is addressed through a set of airflow indices computed with a novel implementation of a grid-by-grid weather type classification across Europe. Drivers of surface ozone over the full distribution of maximum daily 8-hour average values are investigated, along with drivers of the extreme high percentiles and exceedances or air quality guideline thresholds. Three different regression techniques are applied: multiple linear regression to assess the drivers of maximum daily ozone, logistic regression to assess the probability of threshold exceedances and quantile regression to estimate the meteorological influence on extreme values, as represented by the 95th percentile. The relative importance of the input parameters (predictors) is assessed by a backward stepwise regression procedure that allows the identification of the most important predictors in each model. Spatial patterns of model performance exhibit distinct variations between regions. The inclusion of the ozone persistence is particularly relevant over Southern Europe. In general, the best model performance is found over Central Europe, where the maximum temperature plays an important role as a driver of maximum daily ozone as well as its extreme values, especially during warmer months.

Curvature wavefront sensing performance evaluation for active correction of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST).

PubMed

Manuel, Anastacia M; Phillion, Donald W; Olivier, Scot S; Baker, Kevin L; Cannon, Brice

2010-01-18

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) uses a novel, three-mirror, modified Paul-Baker design, with an 8.4-meter primary mirror, a 3.4-m secondary, and a 5.0-m tertiary, along with three refractive corrector lenses to produce a flat focal plane with a field of view of 9.6 square degrees. In order to maintain image quality during operation, the deformations and rigid body motions of the three large mirrors must be actively controlled to minimize optical aberrations, which arise primarily from forces due to gravity and thermal expansion. We describe the methodology for measuring the telescope aberrations using a set of curvature wavefront sensors located in the four corners of the LSST camera focal plane. We present a comprehensive analysis of the wavefront sensing system, including the availability of reference stars, demonstrating that this system will perform to the specifications required to meet the LSST performance goals.

Deep convection over Northern Italy: synoptic and thermodynamic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, S.; Mezzasalma, P.; Levizzani, V.; Alberoni, P. P.; Nanni, S.

Synoptic and thermodynamic characteristics of severe storm outbreaks, including supercells, over northern Italy's Po valley are examined over a 3-year period. Storms are divided into three main categories according to the most relevant associated ground phenomenon: tornado-like, hailfall and heavy rain. For each category, the most common synoptic characteristics are investigated. Sounding data are used to calculate stability indices that help define the storm's environment. Results indicate that the interaction between the synoptic flow and the steep Alpine orography is the key factor responsible for building up the mesoscale circulation that leads to different kinds of severe storms. Some of the stability indices can be regarded as predictors of intense convection.

Pathology report data extraction from relational database using R, with extraction from reports on melanoma of skin as an example.

PubMed

Ye, Jay J

2016-01-01

Different methods have been described for data extraction from pathology reports with varying degrees of success. Here a technique for directly extracting data from relational database is described. Our department uses synoptic reports modified from College of American Pathologists (CAP) Cancer Protocol Templates to report most of our cancer diagnoses. Choosing the melanoma of skin synoptic report as an example, R scripting language extended with RODBC package was used to query the pathology information system database. Reports containing melanoma of skin synoptic report in the past 4 and a half years were retrieved and individual data elements were extracted. Using the retrieved list of the cases, the database was queried a second time to retrieve/extract the lymph node staging information in the subsequent reports from the same patients. 426 synoptic reports corresponding to unique lesions of melanoma of skin were retrieved, and data elements of interest were extracted into an R data frame. The distribution of Breslow depth of melanomas grouped by year is used as an example of intra-report data extraction and analysis. When the new pN staging information was present in the subsequent reports, 82% (77/94) was precisely retrieved (pN0, pN1, pN2 and pN3). Additional 15% (14/94) was retrieved with certain ambiguity (positive or knowing there was an update). The specificity was 100% for both. The relationship between Breslow depth and lymph node status was graphed as an example of lesion-specific multi-report data extraction and analysis. R extended with RODBC package is a simple and versatile approach well-suited for the above tasks. The success or failure of the retrieval and extraction depended largely on whether the reports were formatted and whether the contents of the elements were consistently phrased. This approach can be easily modified and adopted for other pathology information systems that use relational database for data management.

Emergency preparedness for the accidental release of radionuclides from the Uljin Nuclear Power Plant in Korea.

PubMed

Park, Soon-Ung; Lee, In-Hye; Joo, Seung Jin; Ju, Jae-Won

2017-12-01

Site specific radionuclide dispersion databases were archived for the emergency response to the hypothetical releases of 137 Cs from the Uljin nuclear power plant in Korea. These databases were obtained with the horizontal resolution of 1.5 km in the local domain centered the power plant site by simulations of the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM) with the Unified Model (UM)-Local Data Assimilation Prediction System (LDAPS). The Eulerian Dispersion Model-East Asia (EDM-EA) with the UM-Global Data Assimilation Prediction System (UM-GDAPS) meteorological models was used to get dispersion databases in the regional domain. The LPDM model was performed for a year with a 5-day interval yielding 72 synoptic time-scale cases in a year. For each case hourly mean near surface concentrations, hourly mean column integrated concentrations, hourly total depositions for 5 consecutive days were archived by the LPDM model in the local domain and by the EDM-EA model in the regional domain of Asia. Among 72 synoptic cases in a year the worst synoptic case that showed the highest mean surface concentration averaged for 5 days in the LPDM model domain was chosen to illustrate the emergency preparedness to the hypothetical accident at the site. The simulated results by the LPDM model with the 137 Cs emission rate of the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident for the first 5-day period were found to be able to provide prerequisite information for the emergency response to the early phase of the accident whereas those of the EDM-EA model could provide information required for the environmental impact assessment of the accident in the regional domain. The archived site-specific database of 72 synoptic cases in a year could have a great potential to be used as a prognostic information on the emergency preparedness for the early phase of accident. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Status and Preliminary Evaluation for Chinese Re-Analysis Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

bin, zhao; chunxiang, shi; tianbao, zhao; dong, si; jingwei, liu

2016-04-01

Based on operational T639L60 spectral model, combined with Hybird_GSI assimilation system by using meteorological observations including radiosondes, buoyes, satellites el al., a set of Chinese Re-Analysis (CRA) datasets is developing by Chinese National Meteorological Information Center (NMIC) of Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA). The datasets are run at 30km (0.28°latitude / longitude) resolution which holds higher resolution than most of the existing reanalysis dataset. The reanalysis is done in an effort to enhance the accuracy of historical synoptic analysis and aid to find out detailed investigation of various weather and climate systems. The current status of reanalysis is in a stage of preliminary experimental analysis. One-year forecast data during Jun 2013 and May 2014 has been simulated and used in synoptic and climate evaluation. We first examine the model prediction ability with the new assimilation system, and find out that it represents significant improvement in Northern and Southern hemisphere, due to addition of new satellite data, compared with operational T639L60 model, the effect of upper-level prediction is improved obviously and overall prediction stability is enhanced. In climatological analysis, compared with ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR and NCEP/DOE reanalyses, the results show that surface temperature simulates a bit lower in land and higher over ocean, 850-hPa specific humidity reflects weakened anomaly and the zonal wind value anomaly is focus on equatorial tropics. Meanwhile, the reanalysis dataset shows good ability for various climate index, such as subtropical high index, ESMI (East-Asia subtropical Summer Monsoon Index) et al., especially for the Indian and western North Pacific monsoon index. Latter we will further improve the assimilation system and dynamical simulating performance, and obtain 40-years (1979-2018) reanalysis datasets. It will provide a more comprehensive analysis for synoptic and climate diagnosis.

Synoptic thermodynamic and dynamic patterns associated with Quitandinha River flooding events in Petropolis, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silva, Fabricio Polifke; Justi da Silva, Maria Gertrudes Alvarez; Rotunno Filho, Otto Corrêa; Pires, Gisele Dornelles; Sampaio, Rafael João; de Araújo, Afonso Augusto Magalhães

2018-05-01

Natural disasters are the result of extreme or intense natural phenomena that cause severe impacts on society. These impacts can be mitigated through preventive measures that can be aided by better knowledge of extreme phenomena and monitoring of forecasting and alert systems. The city of Petropolis (in a mountainous region of the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) is prone to heavy rain events, often leading to River overflows, landslides, and loss of life. In that context, this work endeavored to characterize the thermodynamic and dynamic synoptic patterns that trigger heavy rainfall episodes and the corresponding flooding of Quitandinha River. More specifically, we reviewed events from the time period between January 2013 and December 2014 using reanalysis data. We expect that the overall description obtained of synoptic patterns should provide adequate qualitative aid to the decision-making processes involved in operational forecasting procedures. We noticed that flooding events were related to the presence of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), frontal systems (FS), and convective storms (CS). These systems showed a similar behavior on high-frequency wind components, notably with respect to northwest winds before precipitation and to a strong southwest wind component during rainfall events. Clustering analyses indicated that the main component for precipitation formation with regard to CS systems comes from daytime heating, with the dynamic component presenting greater efficiency for the FS configurations. The SACZ events were influenced by moisture availability along the vertical column of the atmosphere and also due to dynamic components of precipitation efficiency and daytime heating, the latter related to the continuous transport of moisture from the Amazon region and South Atlantic Ocean towards Rio de Janeiro state.

Spatial variation in hyperthermia emergency department visits among those with employer-based insurance in the United States - a case-crossover analysis.

PubMed

Saha, Shubhayu; Brock, John W; Vaidyanathan, Ambarish; Easterling, David R; Luber, George

2015-03-04

Predictions of intense heat waves across the United States will lead to localized health impacts, most of which are preventable. There is a need to better understand the spatial variation in the morbidity impacts associated with extreme heat across the country to prevent such adverse health outcomes. Hyperthermia-related emergency department (ED) visits were obtained from the Truven Health MarketScan(®) Research dataset for 2000-2010. Three measures of daily ambient heat were constructed using meteorological observations from the National Climatic Data Center (maximum temperature, heat index) and the Spatial Synoptic Classification. Using a time-stratified case crossover approach, odds ratio of hyperthermia-related ED visit were estimated for the three different heat measures. Random effects meta-analysis was used to combine the odds ratios for 94 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) to examine the spatial variation by eight latitude categories and nine U.S. climate regions. Examination of lags for all three temperature measures showed that the odds ratio of ED visit was statistically significant and highest on the day of the ED visit. For heat waves lasting two or more days, additional statistically significant association was observed when heat index and synoptic classification was used as the temperature measure. These results were insensitive to the inclusion of air pollution measures. On average, the maximum temperature on the day of an ED visit was 93.4°F in 'South' and 81.9°F in the 'Northwest' climatic regions of United States. The meta-analysis showed higher odds ratios of hyperthermia ED visit in the central and the northern parts of the country compared to the south and southwest. The results showed spatial variation in average temperature on days of ED visit and odds ratio for hyperthermia ED visits associated with extreme heat across United States. This suggests that heat response plans need to be customized for different regions and the potential role of hyperthermia ED visits in syndromic surveillance for extreme heat.

Synoptic Sun during the first Whole Sun Month Campaign: August 10 to September 8, 1996

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biesecker, D. A.; Thompson, B. J.; Gibson, S. E.; Alexander, D.; Fludra, A.; Gopalswamy, N.; Hoeksema, J. T.; Lecinski, A.; Strachan, L.

1999-05-01

A large number of synoptic maps from a variety of instruments are used to show the general morphology of the Sun at the time of the First Whole Sun Month Campaign. The campaign was conducted from August 10 to September 8, 1996. The synoptic maps cover the period from Carrington rotation 1912/253° to Carrington rotation 1913/45°. The synoptic maps encompass both on-disk data and limb data from several heights in the solar atmosphere. The maps are used to illustrate which wavelengths and data sets show particular features, such as active regions and coronal holes. Of particular interest is the equatorial coronal hole known as the ``elephant's trunk,'' which is clearly evident in the synoptic maps of on-disk data. The elephant's trunk is similar in appearance to the Skylab-era, ``Boot of Italy,'' equatorial coronal hole. The general appearance of the limb maps is explained as well. The limb maps also show evidence for equatorial coronal holes.

Synoptic maps for the heliospheric Thomson scattering brightness as observed by the Helios photometers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hick, P.; Jackson, B. V.; Schwenn, R.

1991-01-01

A method for displaying the electron Thomson scattering intensity in the inner heliosphere as observed by the zodiacal light photometers on board the Helios spacecraft in the form of synoptic maps is presented. The method is based on the assumption that the bulk of the scattering electrons along the line of sight is located near the point closest to the sun. Inner-heliospheric structures will generally be represented properly in these synoptic maps only if they are sufficiently long-lived (that is, a significant fraction of a solar rotation period). The examples of Helios synoptic maps discussed (from data in April 1976 and November 1978), indicate that it is possible to identify large-scale, long-lived density enhancements in the inner heliosphere. It is expected that the Helios synoptic maps will be particularly useful in the study of corotating structures (e.g., streamers), and the maps will be most reliable during periods when few transient featurs are present in the corona, i.e., during solar minimum.

Satellite-derived attributes of cloud vortex systems and their application to climate studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carleton, Andrew M.

1987-01-01

Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) visible and infrared mosaics are analyzed in conjunction with synoptic meteorological observations of sea level pressure (SLP) and upper-air height to derive composite patterns of cyclonic cloud vortices for the Northern Hemisphere. The patterns reveal variations in the structure and implied dynamics of cyclonic systems at different stages of development that include: (1) increasing vertical symmetry of the lower-level and upper-air circulations and (2) decreasing lower-tropospheric thicknesses and temperature advection, associated with increasing age of the vortex. Cloud vortices are more intense in winter than in summer and typically reach maximum intensity in the short-lived prespiral signature stage. There are major structural differences among frontal wave, polar air, and 'instant occlusion' cyclogenesis types. Cyclones in the dissipation stage may reintensify (deepen), as denoted by the appearance in the imagery of an asymmetric cloud band or a tightened spiral vortex. The satellite-derived statistics on cloud vortex intensity, which are seasonal- and latitude- as well as type-dependent, are applied to a preliminary examination of the synoptic manifestations of seasonal climate variability. An apparently close relationship is found, for two winter and spring seasons, between Northern Hemisphere cyclonic activity and variations in cryosphere variables, particularly the extent of Arctic sea ice. The results may indicate that increased snow and ice extent accompany a southward displacement of cyclonic activity and/or a predominance of deeper systems. However, there is also a strong regional dependence to the ice-synoptics feedback. This study demonstrates the utility of high resolution meteorological satellite imagery for studies of climate variations (climate dynamics).

Antecedent Synoptic Environments Conducive to North American Polar/Subtropical Jet Superpositions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winters, A. C.; Keyser, D.; Bosart, L. F.

2017-12-01

The atmosphere often exhibits a three-step pole-to-equator tropopause structure, with each break in the tropopause associated with a jet stream. The polar jet stream (PJ) typically resides in the break between the polar and subtropical tropopause and is positioned atop the strongly baroclinic, tropospheric-deep polar front around 50°N. The subtropical jet stream (STJ) resides in the break between the subtropical and the tropical tropopause and is situated on the poleward edge of the Hadley cell around 30°N. On occasion, the latitudinal separation between the PJ and the STJ can vanish, resulting in a vertical jet superposition. Prior case study work indicates that jet superpositions are often attended by a vigorous transverse vertical circulation that can directly impact the production of extreme weather over North America. Furthermore, this work suggests that there is considerable variability among antecedent environments conducive to the production of jet superpositions. These considerations motivate a comprehensive study to examine the synoptic-dynamic mechanisms that operate within the double-jet environment to produce North American jet superpositions. This study focuses on the identification of North American jet superposition events in the CFSR dataset during November-March 1979-2010. Superposition events will be classified into three characteristic types: "Polar Dominant" events will consist of events during which only the PJ is characterized by a substantial excursion from its climatological latitude band; "Subtropical Dominant" events will consist of events during which only the STJ is characterized by a substantial excursion from its climatological latitude band; and "Hybrid" events will consist of those events characterized by an excursion of both the PJ and STJ from their climatological latitude bands. Following their classification, frequency distributions of jet superpositions will be constructed to highlight the geographical locations most often associated with jet superpositions for each event type. PV inversion and composite analysis will also be performed on each event type in an effort to illustrate the antecedent environments and the dominant synoptic-dynamic mechanisms that favor the production of North American jet superpositions for each event type.

Sensitivity of proxies on non-linear interactions in the climate system

PubMed Central

Schultz, Johannes A.; Beck, Christoph; Menz, Gunter; Neuwirth, Burkhard; Ohlwein, Christian; Philipp, Andreas

2015-01-01

Recent climate change is affecting the earth system to an unprecedented extent and intensity and has the potential to cause severe ecological and socioeconomic consequences. To understand natural and anthropogenic induced processes, feedbacks, trends, and dynamics in the climate system, it is also essential to consider longer timescales. In this context, annually resolved tree-ring data are often used to reconstruct past temperature or precipitation variability as well as atmospheric or oceanic indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The aim of this study is to assess weather-type sensitivity across the Northern Atlantic region based on two tree-ring width networks. Our results indicate that nonstationarities in superordinate space and time scales of the climate system (here synoptic- to global scale, NAO, AMO) can affect the climate sensitivity of tree-rings in subordinate levels of the system (here meso- to synoptic scale, weather-types). This scale bias effect has the capability to impact even large multiproxy networks and the ability of these networks to provide information about past climate conditions. To avoid scale biases in climate reconstructions, interdependencies between the different scales in the climate system must be considered, especially internal ocean/atmosphere dynamics. PMID:26686001

The measurement of the synoptic scale wind over the ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierson, W. J.

1982-01-01

Mesoscale and microscale features of the turbulent winds over the ocean are related to the synoptic scale winds in terms of published spectral forms for the microscale, a mesoscale valley and published values of U*, VAR u', VAR v' and z/L, as defined in the text and as obtained for moderate to gale force winds. The frequencies involved correspond to periods longer than 1 hour and extend to the microscale, which starts at a period near 2 minutes, or so, and continues to the Kolmogorov inertial range. Nondimensional spectra that span both the mesoscale and the microscale are derived as a function of u, f(= n z/u) and z/L, where z is 10 meters, L is the Monin Obukov stability length and u is evaluated at 10 meters. For the same u, different values of z/L produce a range of values of u which in turn result in variations of the eddy structure of the mesoscale and microscale spectra. Both conventional anemometer averages and remotely sensed winds contain a random component of the mesoscale wind in their values. These components are differnces and not errors when winds are compared, and quantitative values for these differences are given. Ways to improve the measurement of the synoptic scale wind by transient ships, data buoys and scatterometers on future spacecraft are described. These ways are loner averaging times for ships and data buoys, depending on the synoptic conditions, and pooling spacecraft to form super observations. Design considerations for future remote sensing systems are given.

The Relationship Between Anomalous Presummer Extreme Rainfall Over South China and Synoptic Disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ling; Luo, Yali; Zhang, Da-Lin

2018-04-01

A spectral analysis of daily rainfall data has been performed to investigate extreme rainfall events in south China during the presummer rainy seasons between 1998 and 2015 (excluding 1999, 2006, 2011, and 2014). The results reveal a dominant frequency mode at the synoptic scale with pronounced positive rainfall anomalies. By analyzing the synoptic-scale bandpass-filtered anomalous circulations, 24 extreme rainfall episodes (defined as those with a daily rainfall amount in the top 5%) are categorized into "cyclone" (15) and "trough" (8) types, with the remaining events as an "anticyclone" type, according to the primary anomalous weather system contributing to each extreme rainfall episode. The 15 cyclone-type episodes are further separated into (11) lower- and (4) upper-tropospheric migratory anomalies. An analysis of their anomalous fields shows that both types could be traced back to the generation of cyclonic anomalies downstream of the Tibetan Plateau, except for two episodes of lower-tropospheric migratory anomalies originating over the South China Sea. However, a lower-tropospheric cyclonic anomaly appears during all phases in the former type, but only in the wettest phase in the latter type, with its peak disturbance occurring immediately beneath an upper-level warm anomaly. The production of extreme rainfall in the trough-type episodes is closely related to a deep trough anomaly extending from an intense cyclonic anomaly over north China, which in turn could be traced back to a midlatitude Rossby wave train passing by the Tibetan Plateau. The results have important implications for understanding the origin, structure, and evolution of synoptic disturbances associated with the presummer extreme rainfall in south China.

Regime Behavior in Paleo-Reconstructed Streamflow: Attributions to Atmospheric Dynamics, Synoptic Circulation and Large-Scale Climate Teleconnection Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

2017-12-01

Studies have shown that streamflow behavior and dynamics have a significant link with climate and climate variability. Patterns of persistent regime behavior from extended streamflow records in many watersheds justify investigating large-scale climate mechanisms as potential drivers of hydrologic regime behavior and streamflow variability. Understanding such streamflow-climate relationships is crucial to forecasting/simulation systems and the planning and management of water resources. In this study, hidden Markov models are used with reconstructed streamflow to detect regime-like behaviors - the hidden states - and state transition phenomena. Individual extreme events and their spatial variability across the basin are then verified with the identified states. Wavelet analysis is performed to examine the signals over time in the streamflow records. Joint analyses of the climatic data in the 20th century and the identified states are undertaken to better understand the hydroclimatic connections within the basin as well as important teleconnections that influence water supply. Compositing techniques are used to identify atmospheric circulation patterns associated with identified states of streamflow. The grouping of such synoptic patterns and their frequency are then examined. Sliding time-window correlation analysis and cross-wavelet spectral analysis are performed to establish the synchronicity of basin flows to the identified synoptic and teleconnection patterns. The Missouri River Basin (MRB) is examined in this study, both as a means of better understanding the synoptic climate controls in this important watershed and as a case study for the techniques developed here. Initial wavelet analyses of reconstructed streamflow at major gauges in the MRB show multidecadal cycles in regime behavior.

The effect of water temperature and synoptic winds on the development of surface flows over narrow, elongated water bodies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Segal, M.; Pielke, R. A.

1985-01-01

Simulations of the thermally induced breeze involved with a relatively narrow, elongated water body is presented in conjunction with evaluations of sensible heat fluxes in a stable marine atmospheric surface layer. The effect of the water surface temperature and of the large-scale synoptic winds on the development of surface flows over the water is examined. As implied by the sensible heat flux patterns, the simulation results reveal the following trends: (1) when the synoptic flow is absent or light, the induced surface breeze is not affected noticeably by a reduction of the water surface temperature; and (2) for stronger synoptic flow, the resultant surface flow may be significantly affected by the water surface temperature.

Mining the Galaxy Zoo Database: Machine Learning Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borne, Kirk D.; Wallin, J.; Vedachalam, A.; Baehr, S.; Lintott, C.; Darg, D.; Smith, A.; Fortson, L.

2010-01-01

The new Zooniverse initiative is addressing the data flood in the sciences through a transformative partnership between professional scientists, volunteer citizen scientists, and machines. As part of this project, we are exploring the application of machine learning techniques to data mining problems associated with the large and growing database of volunteer science results gathered by the Galaxy Zoo citizen science project. We will describe the basic challenge, some machine learning approaches, and early results. One of the motivators for this study is the acquisition (through the Galaxy Zoo results database) of approximately 100 million classification labels for roughly one million galaxies, yielding a tremendously large and rich set of training examples for improving automated galaxy morphological classification algorithms. In our first case study, the goal is to learn which morphological and photometric features in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) database correlate most strongly with user-selected galaxy morphological class. As a corollary to this study, we are also aiming to identify which galaxy parameters in the SDSS database correspond to galaxies that have been the most difficult to classify (based upon large dispersion in their volunter-provided classifications). Our second case study will focus on similar data mining analyses and machine leaning algorithms applied to the Galaxy Zoo catalog of merging and interacting galaxies. The outcomes of this project will have applications in future large sky surveys, such as the LSST (Large Synoptic Survey Telescope) project, which will generate a catalog of 20 billion galaxies and will produce an additional astronomical alert database of approximately 100 thousand events each night for 10 years -- the capabilities and algorithms that we are exploring will assist in the rapid characterization and classification of such massive data streams. This research has been supported in part through NSF award #0941610.

[Galaxy/quasar classification based on nearest neighbor method].

PubMed

Li, Xiang-Ru; Lu, Yu; Zhou, Jian-Ming; Wang, Yong-Jun

2011-09-01

With the wide application of high-quality CCD in celestial spectrum imagery and the implementation of many large sky survey programs (e. g., Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), Two-degree-Field Galaxy Redshift Survey (2dF), Spectroscopic Survey Telescope (SST), Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) program and Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) program, etc.), celestial observational data are coming into the world like torrential rain. Therefore, to utilize them effectively and fully, research on automated processing methods for celestial data is imperative. In the present work, we investigated how to recognizing galaxies and quasars from spectra based on nearest neighbor method. Galaxies and quasars are extragalactic objects, they are far away from earth, and their spectra are usually contaminated by various noise. Therefore, it is a typical problem to recognize these two types of spectra in automatic spectra classification. Furthermore, the utilized method, nearest neighbor, is one of the most typical, classic, mature algorithms in pattern recognition and data mining, and often is used as a benchmark in developing novel algorithm. For applicability in practice, it is shown that the recognition ratio of nearest neighbor method (NN) is comparable to the best results reported in the literature based on more complicated methods, and the superiority of NN is that this method does not need to be trained, which is useful in incremental learning and parallel computation in mass spectral data processing. In conclusion, the results in this work are helpful for studying galaxies and quasars spectra classification.

IN SITU ESTIMATES OF FOREST LAI FOR MODIS DATA VALIDATION

EPA Science Inventory

Satellite remote sensor data are commonly used to assess ecosystem conditions through synoptic monitoring of terrestrial vegetation extent, biomass, and seasonal dynamics. Two commonly used vegetation indices that can be derived from various remote sensor systems include the Norm...

Prediction of Coral Bleaching in the Florida Keys Using Remotely Sensed Data

EPA Science Inventory

Coral bleaching has been attributed to extremes or stressful synergy in several physical variables of the coral habitat. Of particular concern have been temperature, ultraviolet radiation, and photosynthetically available radiation. Satellite observing systems allow synoptic-sca...

Remote sensing in Iowa agriculture. [land use, crop identification, and soil mapping

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahlstede, J. P. (Principal Investigator); Carlson, R. E.; Fenton, T. E.

1974-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Analysis of 1972 single-date coverage indicated that a complete crop classification was not attainable at the test sites. Good multi-date coverage during 1973 indicates that many of the problems encountered in 1972 will be minimized. In addition, the compilation of springtime imagery covering the entire state of Iowa has added a new dimension to interpretation of Iowa's natural resources. ERTS-1 has provided data necessary to achieve the broad synoptic view not attainable through other means. This should provide soils and crop researchers and land use planners a base map of Iowa. Granted and due to the resolution of ERTS-1, not all details are observable for many land use planning needs, but this gives a general and current view of Iowa.

Synoptic volumetric variations and flushing of the Tampa Bay estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, M.; Meyers, S. D.; Luther, M. E.

2014-03-01

Two types of analyses are used to investigate the synoptic wind-driven flushing of Tampa Bay in response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle from 1950 to 2007. Hourly sea level elevations from the St. Petersburg tide gauge, and wind speed and direction from three different sites around Tampa Bay are used for the study. The zonal (u) and meridional (v) wind components are rotated clockwise by 40° to obtain axial and co-axial components according to the layout of the bay. First, we use the subtidal observed water level as a proxy for mean tidal height to estimate the rate of volumetric bay outflow. Second, we use wavelet analysis to bandpass sea level and wind data in the time-frequency domain to isolate the synoptic sea level and surface wind variance. For both analyses the long-term monthly climatology is removed and we focus on the volumetric and wavelet variance anomalies. The overall correlation between the Oceanic Niño Index and volumetric analysis is small due to the seasonal dependence of the ENSO response. The mean monthly climatology between the synoptic wavelet variance of elevation and axial winds are in close agreement. During the winter, El Niño (La Niña) increases (decreases) the synoptic variability, but decreases (increases) it during the summer. The difference in winter El Niño/La Niña wavelet variances is about 20 % of the climatological value, meaning that ENSO can swing the synoptic flushing of the bay by 0.22 bay volumes per month. These changes in circulation associated with synoptic variability have the potential to impact mixing and transport within the bay.

Extreme fog events in Poland with respect to circulation conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ustrnul, Z.; Czekierda, D.; Wypych, A.

2010-09-01

Fog is a phenomenon which belongs to a group of so-called hydrometeorites and, according to the different dictionaries, it is a suspension of water droplets or ice crystals in the ground layer of the air that impairs visibility in the horizontal direction below 1 km. The phenomenon of fog, although much less dynamic or violent than other extreme phenomena, such as thunderstorms or hail, is equally dangerous and brings about huge social and economic complications. Land and air transportation suffer and fog may sometimes leads to a complete crippling of the whole economy in an area where fog occurs. The main objective of the study is determination of the circulation types bringing extreme fog events in Poland. The duration of fog at each meteorological station was considered as the main input data originated from 54 synoptic stations located across the country. The mentioned data series cover the period of 56 years (1951-2006). The occurrence of fog depends on meteorological conditions caused to a large extent by a given synoptic situation and local terrain conditions. In this study, according to its objectives, only circulation conditions are taken into consideration. These have been described by 5 different circulation classifications (Grosswetterlagen, Litynski, Osuchowska-Klein, Niedzwiedz and Ustrnul). Situations when this phenomenon occurred across a large part of the country were taken into detailed consideration. Special attention was paid to fog coverage during 24-hour periods. In this work, in light of certain doubts about the homogeneity of the observation material available, the intensity of fog was not included, as it requires additional and very tedious analysis. In the first step all cases of fog during the 1966-2006 study period which lasted 24 hours at more than 10 of the considered weather stations, i.e: at least 5 stations have been considered. As expected, in most cases, either a centre of a classical high pressure system or a high pressure wedge prevailed over Poland. In many cases, the dominance of baric patterns with advection from the eastern or southern sectors can be observed. Only in a few cases does a type with advection from the western sector come into play. In summary, it can be stated that intensive extreme fog of long duration occurred first of all in high pressure non-advective situations or along with weak advection, mainly from the southern or eastern direction. This statement, however, is not revolutionary. It simply confirms that the most troublesome of fog types is the radiation type, and can cover all of Poland at the same time and last up to several days. The study contains detailed meteorological-synoptic analyses of the most extreme events during the whole investigated period.

Synoptic weather types and aeroallergens modify the effect of air pollution on hospitalisations for asthma hospitalisations in Canadian cities.

PubMed

Hebbern, Christopher; Cakmak, Sabit

2015-09-01

Pollution levels and the effect of air pollution on human health can be modified by synoptic weather type and aeroallergens. We investigated the effect modification of aeroallergens on the association between CO, O3, NO2, SO2, PM10, PM2.5 and asthma hospitalisation rates in seven synoptic weather types. We developed single air pollutant models, adjusted for the effect of aeroallergens and stratified by synoptic weather type, and pooled relative risk estimates for asthma hospitalisation in ten Canadian cities. Aeroallergens significantly modified the relative risk in 19 pollutant-weather type combinations, reducing the size and variance for each single pollutant model. However, aeroallergens did not significantly modify relative risk for any pollutant in the DT or MT weather types, or for PM10 in any weather type. Thus, there is a modifying effect of aeroallergens on the association between CO, O3, NO2, SO2, PM2.5 and asthma hospitalisations that differs under specific synoptic weather types. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Synoptic analysis and hindcast of an intense bow echo in Western Europe: The 09 June 2014 storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathias, Luca; Ermert, Volker; Kelemen, Fanni D.; Ludwig, Patrick; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2017-04-01

On Pentecost Monday of 09 June 2014, a severe mesoscale convective system (MCS) hit Belgium and Western Germany. This storm was one of the most severe thunderstorms in Germany for decades. The synoptic-scale and mesoscale characteristics of this storm are analyzed based on remote sensing data and in-situ measurements. Moreover, the forecast potential of the storm is evaluated using sensitivity experiments with a regional climate model. The key ingredients for the development of the Pentecost storm were the concurrent presence of low-level moisture, atmospheric conditional instability and wind shear. The synoptic and mesoscale analysis shows that the outflow of a decaying MCS above northern France triggered the storm, which exhibited the typical features of a bow echo like a mesovortex and rear inflow jet. This resulted in hurricane-force wind gusts (reaching 40 m/s) along a narrow swath in the Rhine-Ruhr region leading to substantial damage. Operational numerical weather predictions models mostly failed to forecast the storm, but high-resolution regional model hindcasts enable a realistic simulation of the storm. The model experiments reveal that the development of the bow echo is particularly sensitive to the initial wind field and the lower tropospheric moisture content. Correct initial and boundary conditions are therefore necessary for realistic numerical forecasts of such a bow echo event. We conclude that the Pentecost storm exhibited a comparable structure and a similar intensity to the observed bow echo systems in the United States.

On-line Machine Learning and Event Detection in Petascale Data Streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, David R.; Wagstaff, K. L.

2012-01-01

Traditional statistical data mining involves off-line analysis in which all data are available and equally accessible. However, petascale datasets have challenged this premise since it is often impossible to store, let alone analyze, the relevant observations. This has led the machine learning community to investigate adaptive processing chains where data mining is a continuous process. Here pattern recognition permits triage and followup decisions at multiple stages of a processing pipeline. Such techniques can also benefit new astronomical instruments such as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) and Square Kilometre Array (SKA) that will generate petascale data volumes. We summarize some machine learning perspectives on real time data mining, with representative cases of astronomical applications and event detection in high volume datastreams. The first is a "supervised classification" approach currently used for transient event detection at the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA). It injects known signals of interest - faint single-pulse anomalies - and tunes system parameters to recover these events. This permits meaningful event detection for diverse instrument configurations and observing conditions whose noise cannot be well-characterized in advance. Second, "semi-supervised novelty detection" finds novel events based on statistical deviations from previous patterns. It detects outlier signals of interest while considering known examples of false alarm interference. Applied to data from the Parkes pulsar survey, the approach identifies anomalous "peryton" phenomena that do not match previous event models. Finally, we consider online light curve classification that can trigger adaptive followup measurements of candidate events. Classifier performance analyses suggest optimal survey strategies, and permit principled followup decisions from incomplete data. These examples trace a broad range of algorithm possibilities available for online astronomical data mining. This talk describes research performed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology. Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. U.S. Government support acknowledged.

SPRECHEN SIE GOETHE, A SYNOPTIC ESSAY.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

BUSACCA, BASIL

THE WAY IN WHICH WE CONCEIVE OF REALITY IS DEPENDENT UPON THE LANGUAGE SYSTEM WE USE. EACH LANGUAGE SYSTEM, WHETHER THAT OF A WHOLE CULTURE, A SUBCULTURE, OR AN INDIVIDUAL, EMBODIES IN ITS VOCABULARY AND SYNTAX AND RULES OF "GRAMMAR" A SET OF ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE NATURE OF REALITY AND THE CORRECT WAYS TO MAKE SENSE OF THINGS. THUS, UNDERSTANDING…

Behavior of the gypsy moth life system model and development of synoptic model formulations

Treesearch

J. J. Colbert; Xu Rumei

1991-01-01

Aims of the research: The gypsy moth life system model (GMLSM) is a complex model which incorporates numerous components (both biotic and abiotic) and ecological processes. It is a detailed simulation model which has much biological reality. However, it has not yet been tested with life system data. For such complex models, evaluation and testing cannot be adequately...

Synoptic backgrounds of the widest wildfire in Mazandaran Province of Iran during December 11-13, 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghavidel, Yousef; Farajzadeh, Manuchehr; Khaleghi Babaei, Meysam

2016-12-01

In this paper, atmospheric origins of the widest wildfire in Mazandaran province on 11-13th of December, 2010 have been investigated. Data sets of this research include maximum daily temperature (MDT), minimum relative humidity (MRH) of terrestrial stations, dynamic and thermodynamic features of the atmosphere, Gridded data sets of Self-Calibrated Palmer drought severity index (SCPDSI) and global drought dataset standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and data related to the time and the extent of the wildfire. The ``environmental to circulation'' approach to synoptic classification has been used to investigate relationships between local-scale surface environment (wildfire) and the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation conditions. Results of study show that during the 3-day wide wildfire, the average of MDT and the MRH was significantly different from the long-term average. During the aforementioned wildfire, the average of MDT in Mazandaran province was 26 °C and the average of MRH was reported 35 %. The long-term average of MDT and the MRH in Mazandaran province during 3 days of wildfire was 12.3 °C and 68 %, respectively. Therefore, the MDT has a positive abnormality of 13.7 °C and the MRH has a negative abnormality of 33 %. In addition, monthly SCPDSI and SPEI indicated severe drought conditions at December 2010 in Mazandaran. Analysis of SLP maps shows that during the 3-day fire, a pressure center of 1110 hPa on Persian Gulf and a very low-pressure center on Turkey and Asia Minor were created. Normally, this event has caused the pressure gradient and warm and dry air advection from Arabian Peninsula to higher longitudes, particularly Mazandaran province. Consequently, the MDT increased and the wildfire of Mazandaran forest took place in an area of 220 ha. Zonal wind maps signify the weakness of Zonal wind and meridional wind maps show the southern direction of meridional wind flow during the wide wildfire. Moreover, Omega maps prove that during the aforementioned wildfire, the Omega flow has been positive and the warm air flow has subsidence. This made the infusion of warm air and increased the MDT substantially and consequently the wildfire occurrence was facilitated. Temperature advection maps showed that in the level of 1000 hPa, the warm air blowing source is originated from Arabian Peninsula, in the level of 850 hPa from the Arabian Peninsula and Iraq and in the level of 700 and 500 hPa from Ethiopia, Arabian Peninsula and Iraq. The Hybrid-Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model outputs confirm the synoptic mechanisms for the discussed wildfire.

MONITORING AND UNDERSTANDING CONDITIONS AND TRENDS IN US ESTUARIES

EPA Science Inventory

Estuarine systems are complex and dynamic, being responsive to changes in the atmosphere, on land, and at their seaward boundary. Talks in this session describe how changes can be documented with modern quality-assured measurements including: synoptic measurements (e.g. remote se...

Variations in synoptic-scale eddy activity during the life cycles of persistent flow anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dole, Randall M.; Neilley, Peter P.

1991-01-01

The objective of the study was to identify how synoptic-scale eddy activity varies throughout the life cycles of major scale flow anomalies. In particular, composite analyses of various measures of synoptic-scale eddy activity are constructed, with the composites obtained relative to the onset and termination times of cases typically associated with either blocking or abnormally intense zonal flows. The potential mechanisms that are likely to contribute to the observed changes in eddy behavior are discussed.

An analysis of the synoptic and dynamical characteristics of hurricane Sandy (2012)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varlas, George; Papadopoulos, Anastasios; Katsafados, Petros

2018-01-01

Hurricane Sandy affected the Caribbean Islands and the Northeastern United States in October 2012 and caused 233 fatalities, severe rainfalls, floods, electricity blackouts, and 75 billion U.S. dollars in damages. In this study, the synoptic and dynamical characteristics that led to the formation of the hurricane are investigated. The system was driven by the interaction between the polar jet displacement and the subtropical jet stream. In particular, Sandy was initially formed as a tropical depression system over the Caribbean Sea and the unusually warm sea drove its intensification. The interaction between a rapidly approaching trough from the northwest and the stagnant ridge over the Atlantic Ocean drove Sandy to the northeast coast of United States. To better understand the dynamical characteristics and the mechanisms that triggered Sandy, a non-hydrostatic mesoscale model has been used. Model results indicate that the surface heat fluxes and the moisture advection enhanced the convective available potential energy, increased the low-level convective instability, and finally deepened the hurricane. Moreover, the upper air conditions triggered the low-level frontogenesis and increased the asymmetry of the system which finally affected its trajectory.

Statistical characteristics of mudflows in the piedmont areas of Uzbekistan and the role of the synoptic processes for the formation of mudflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mamadjanova, Gavkhar; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2016-04-01

Mudflows are formed almost every year in the territory of Uzbekistan and neighbouring countries. They represent a major threat to human life and settlements and can significantly damage infrastructure. In general, in addition to elevated soil moisture conditions, severe local rainfall events (e.g., 15 mm of precipitation in 12 hours) and associated air temperature conditions are understood to be the main factors in the formation of mudflows in the piedmont areas of Uzbekistan. The main purpose of this study is to understand factors on local and synoptic to hemispheric scales, which cause mudflow variability on interannual and longer time scales. To fulfil this objective, in a first step historical data of mudflow occurrences (mainly March to August) in Uzbekistan provided by the Centre of Hydro-meteorological Service of the Republic of Uzbekistan (Uzhydromet) for more than 140 years are statistically analysed. During the investigation period a total of around 3000 mudflow events were observed with about 21 events per year on average and a maximum of 168 mudflows in 1930. To understand principle factors steering the variability of mudflow occurrences, synoptic scale circulation weather types (CWT) over Central Asia and Uzbekistan are investigated. The majority of mudflows (22%) occur during the advection of westerly airflow when moist air from Central and Southern Europe reaches Uzbekistan. This objectively classified synoptic situation can be related to one of the 15 primary synoptic circulation types over the Central Asia and Uzbekistan which were subjectively derived by Bugayev and Giorgio in 1930-40s (Bugayev et al., 1957), thus confirming the validity of this approach. By means of the CWT approach, we further analyse that on mudflow-days the frequencies of cyclonic, westerly, south-westerly and north-westerly stream flows are increased in comparison to the climatological frequency of occurrence of these circulation weather types. Details of the necessary and sufficient meteorological conditions within a CWT class are investigated. Further studies will investigate and identify key factors steering the variability in CWT frequency variability over Central Asia on longer timescales and how these are related to known major variability modes in the climate system.

Urbanization-induced urban heat island and aerosol effects on climate extremes in the Yangtze River Delta region of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Shi; Qian, Yun; Zhao, Chun; Leung, Ruby; Wang, Hailong; Yang, Ben; Fan, Jiwen; Yan, Huiping; Yang, Xiu-Qun; Liu, Dongqing

2017-04-01

The WRF-Chem model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) is integrated for 5 years at convection-permitting scale to investigate the individual and combined impacts of urbanization-induced changes in land cover and pollutant emissions on regional climate in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in eastern China. Simulations with the urbanization effects reasonably reproduced the observed features of temperature and precipitation in the YRD region. Urbanization over the YRD induces an urban heat island (UHI) effect, which increases the surface temperature by 0.53 °C in summer and increases the annual heat wave days at a rate of 3.7 d yr-1 in the major megacities in the YRD, accompanied by intensified heat stress. In winter, the near-surface air temperature increases by approximately 0.7 °C over commercial areas in the cities but decreases in the surrounding areas. Radiative effects of aerosols tend to cool the surface air by reducing net shortwave radiation at the surface. Compared to the more localized UHI effect, aerosol effects on solar radiation and temperature influence a much larger area, especially downwind of the city cluster in the YRD. Results also show that the UHI increases the frequency of extreme summer precipitation by strengthening the convergence and updrafts over urbanized areas in the afternoon, which favor the development of deep convection. In contrast, the radiative forcing of aerosols results in a surface cooling and upper-atmospheric heating, which enhances atmospheric stability and suppresses convection. The combined effects of the UHI and aerosols on precipitation depend on synoptic conditions. Two rainfall events under two typical but different synoptic weather patterns are further analyzed. It is shown that the impact of urban land cover and aerosols on precipitation is not only determined by their influence on local convergence but also modulated by large-scale weather systems. For the case with a strong synoptic forcing associated with stronger winds and larger spatial convergence, the UHI and aerosol effects are relatively weak. When the synoptic forcing is weak, however, the UHI and aerosol effects on local convergence dominate. This suggests that synoptic forcing plays a significant role in modulating the urbanization-induced land-cover and aerosol effects on individual rainfall event. Hence precipitation changes due to urbanization effects may offset each other under different synoptic conditions, resulting in little changes in mean precipitation at longer timescales.

Urbanization-induced urban heat island and aerosol effects on climate extremes in the Yangtze River Delta region of China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhong, Shi; Qian, Yun; Zhao, Chun

The WRF-Chem model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) is integrated for 5 years at convection-permitting scale to investigate the individual and combined impacts of urbanization-induced changes in land cover and pollutant emissions on regional climate in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in eastern China. Simulations with the urbanization effects reasonably reproduced the observed features of temperature and precipitation in the YRD region. Urbanization over the YRD induces an urban heat island (UHI) effect, which increases the surface temperature by 0.53 °C in summer and increases the annual heat wave days at a rate of 3.7 d yr −1 in themore » major megacities in the YRD, accompanied by intensified heat stress. In winter, the near-surface air temperature increases by approximately 0.7 °C over commercial areas in the cities but decreases in the surrounding areas. Radiative effects of aerosols tend to cool the surface air by reducing net shortwave radiation at the surface. Compared to the more localized UHI effect, aerosol effects on solar radiation and temperature influence a much larger area, especially downwind of the city cluster in the YRD. Results also show that the UHI increases the frequency of extreme summer precipitation by strengthening the convergence and updrafts over urbanized areas in the afternoon, which favor the development of deep convection. In contrast, the radiative forcing of aerosols results in a surface cooling and upper-atmospheric heating, which enhances atmospheric stability and suppresses convection. The combined effects of the UHI and aerosols on precipitation depend on synoptic conditions. Two rainfall events under two typical but different synoptic weather patterns are further analyzed. It is shown that the impact of urban land cover and aerosols on precipitation is not only determined by their influence on local convergence but also modulated by large-scale weather systems. For the case with a strong synoptic forcing associated with stronger winds and larger spatial convergence, the UHI and aerosol effects are relatively weak. When the synoptic forcing is weak, however, the UHI and aerosol effects on local convergence dominate. This suggests that synoptic forcing plays a significant role in modulating the urbanization-induced land-cover and aerosol effects on individual rainfall event. Hence precipitation changes due to urbanization effects may offset each other under different synoptic conditions, resulting in little changes in mean precipitation at longer timescales.« less

Urbanization-induced urban heat island and aerosol effects on climate extremes in the Yangtze River Delta region of China

DOE PAGES

Zhong, Shi; Qian, Yun; Zhao, Chun; ...

2017-04-27

The WRF-Chem model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) is integrated for 5 years at convection-permitting scale to investigate the individual and combined impacts of urbanization-induced changes in land cover and pollutant emissions on regional climate in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in eastern China. Simulations with the urbanization effects reasonably reproduced the observed features of temperature and precipitation in the YRD region. Urbanization over the YRD induces an urban heat island (UHI) effect, which increases the surface temperature by 0.53 °C in summer and increases the annual heat wave days at a rate of 3.7 d yr −1 in themore » major megacities in the YRD, accompanied by intensified heat stress. In winter, the near-surface air temperature increases by approximately 0.7 °C over commercial areas in the cities but decreases in the surrounding areas. Radiative effects of aerosols tend to cool the surface air by reducing net shortwave radiation at the surface. Compared to the more localized UHI effect, aerosol effects on solar radiation and temperature influence a much larger area, especially downwind of the city cluster in the YRD. Results also show that the UHI increases the frequency of extreme summer precipitation by strengthening the convergence and updrafts over urbanized areas in the afternoon, which favor the development of deep convection. In contrast, the radiative forcing of aerosols results in a surface cooling and upper-atmospheric heating, which enhances atmospheric stability and suppresses convection. The combined effects of the UHI and aerosols on precipitation depend on synoptic conditions. Two rainfall events under two typical but different synoptic weather patterns are further analyzed. It is shown that the impact of urban land cover and aerosols on precipitation is not only determined by their influence on local convergence but also modulated by large-scale weather systems. For the case with a strong synoptic forcing associated with stronger winds and larger spatial convergence, the UHI and aerosol effects are relatively weak. When the synoptic forcing is weak, however, the UHI and aerosol effects on local convergence dominate. This suggests that synoptic forcing plays a significant role in modulating the urbanization-induced land-cover and aerosol effects on individual rainfall event. Hence precipitation changes due to urbanization effects may offset each other under different synoptic conditions, resulting in little changes in mean precipitation at longer timescales.« less

Combination of synoptical-analogous and dynamical methods to increase skill score of monthly air temperature forecasts over Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Valentina; Tscepelev, Valery; Vilfand, Roman; Kulikova, Irina; Kruglova, Ekaterina; Tischenko, Vladimir

2016-04-01

Long-range forecasts at monthly-seasonal time scale are in great demand of socio-economic sectors for exploiting climate-related risks and opportunities. At the same time, the quality of long-range forecasts is not fully responding to user application necessities. Different approaches, including combination of different prognostic models, are used in forecast centers to increase the prediction skill for specific regions and globally. In the present study, two forecasting methods are considered which are exploited in operational practice of Hydrometeorological Center of Russia. One of them is synoptical-analogous method of forecasting of surface air temperature at monthly scale. Another one is dynamical system based on the global semi-Lagrangian model SL-AV, developed in collaboration of Institute of Numerical Mathematics and Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia. The seasonal version of this model has been used to issue global and regional forecasts at monthly-seasonal time scales. This study presents results of the evaluation of surface air temperature forecasts generated with using above mentioned synoptical-statistical and dynamical models, and their combination to potentially increase skill score over Northern Eurasia. The test sample of operational forecasts is encompassing period from 2010 through 2015. The seasonal and interannual variability of skill scores of these methods has been discussed. It was noticed that the quality of all forecasts is highly dependent on the inertia of macro-circulation processes. The skill scores of forecasts are decreasing during significant alterations of synoptical fields for both dynamical and empirical schemes. Procedure of combination of forecasts from different methods, in some cases, has demonstrated its effectiveness. For this study the support has been provided by Grant of Russian Science Foundation (№14-37-00053).

Improving Synoptic and Intra-Seasonnal Variability in CFS via a Better Representation of Organized Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khouider, B.; Goswami, B. B.; Majda, A.; Krishna, R. P. M. M.; Mukhopadhyay, P.

2016-12-01

Improvements in the capability of climate models to realistically capture the synoptic and intra-seasonnal variability, associated with tropical rainfall, are conditioned by improvement in the representation of the subgrid variability due to organized convection and the underlying two-way interactions through multiple scales and thus breaking with the quasi-equilibrium bottleneck. By design, the stochastic multi-cloud model (SMCM) mimics the life cycle of organized tropical convective systems and the interactions of the associated cloud types with each other and with large scales, as it is observed. It is based a lattice particle interaction model for predefined microscopic (subgrid) sites that make random transitions from one cloud type to another conditional to the large scale state. In return the SMCM provides the cloud type area fractions on the form of a Markov chain model which can be run in parallel with the climate model without any significant computational overhead. The SMCM was previously successfully tested in both reduced complexity tropical models and an aquaplanet global atmospheric model. Here, we report for the first time the results of its implementation in the fully coupled NCEP climate model (CFSv2) through the used of prescribed vertical profiles of heating and drying obtained from observations. While many known biases in CFSv2 have been slightly improved there are no noticeable degradation in the simulated mean climatology. Nonetheless, comparison with observations show that the improvements in terms of synoptic and intra-seasonnal variability are spectacular, despite the fact that CFSv2 is one of the best models in this regard. In particular, while CFSv2 exaggerates the intra-seasonnal variance at the expense of the synoptic contribution, the CFS-SMCM shows a good balance between the two as in the observations.

Quantifying the imprint of mesoscale and synoptic-scale atmospheric transport on total column carbon dioxide measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres, A. D.; Keppel-Aleks, G.; Doney, S. C.; Feng, S.; Lauvaux, T.; Fendrock, M. A.; Rheuben, J.

2017-12-01

Remote sensing instruments provide an unprecedented density of observations of the atmospheric CO2 column average mole fraction (denoted as XCO2), which can be used to constrain regional scale carbon fluxes. Inferring fluxes from XCO2 observations is challenging, as measurements and inversion methods are sensitive to not only the imprint local and large-scale fluxes, but also mesoscale and synoptic-scale atmospheric transport. Quantifying the fine-scale variability in XCO2 from mesoscale and synoptic-scale atmospheric transport will likely improve overall error estimates from flux inversions by improving estimates of representation errors that occur when XCO2 observations are compared to modeled XCO2 in relatively coarse transport models. Here, we utilize various statistical methods to quantify the imprint of atmospheric transport on XCO2 observations. We compare spatial variations along Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) satellite tracks to temporal variations observed by the Total Column Carbon Observing Network (TCCON). We observe a coherent seasonal cycle of both within-day temporal and fine-scale spatial variability (of order 10 km) of XCO2 from these two datasets, suggestive of the imprint of mesoscale systems. To account for other potential sources of error in XCO2 retrieval, we compare observed temporal and spatial variations of XCO2 to high-resolution output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run at 9 km resolution. In both simulations and observations, the Northern hemisphere mid-latitude XCO2 showed peak variability during the growing season when atmospheric gradients are largest. These results are qualitatively consistent with our expectations of seasonal variations of the imprint of synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric transport on XCO2 observations; suggesting that these statistical methods could be sensitive to the imprint of atmospheric transport on XCO2 observations.

Local and synoptic controls on rapid supraglacial lake drainage in West Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, Andrew; Banwell, Alison; Arnold, Neil; Willis, Ian

2016-04-01

Many supraglacial lakes within the ablation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) are known to drain rapidly (in <1 day) in the mid- to late melt season, delivering large meltwater pulses to the subglacial drainage system, thus affecting basal water pressures and ice-sheet dynamics. Although it is now generally recognised that rapid lake drainage is caused by hydrofracture, the precise controls on hydrofracture initiation remain poorly understood: they may be linked to a local critical water-volume threshold, or they may be associated with synoptic-scale factors, such as ice thickness, driving stresses, ice velocities and strain rates. A combination of the local water-volume threshold and one or more synoptic-scale factors may explain the overall patterns of rapid lake drainage, but this requires verification using targeted field- and remotely-based studies that cover large areas of the GrIS and span long timescales. Here, we investigate a range of potential controls on rapid supraglacial lake drainage in the land-terminating Paakitsoq region of the ice sheet, northeast of Jakobshavn Isbræ, for the 2014 melt season. We have analysed daily 250-m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery in order to calculate lake areas, depths and volumes, and have developed an automatic lake-tracking algorithm to determine the dates on which all rapid lake drainage events occur. For each rapidly draining lake, the water volumes immediately prior to drainage are compared with other local factors, notably lake-filling rate and ice thickness, and with a variety of synoptic-scale features, such as slope angles, driving stresses, surface velocities, surface strain rates and the incidence of nearby lake-drainage events. We present the outcomes of our statistical analysis to elicit the statistically significant controls on hydrofracture beneath supraglacial lakes.

Addressing the mischaracterization of extreme rainfall in regional climate model simulations - A synoptic pattern based bias correction approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jingwan; Sharma, Ashish; Evans, Jason; Johnson, Fiona

2018-01-01

Addressing systematic biases in regional climate model simulations of extreme rainfall is a necessary first step before assessing changes in future rainfall extremes. Commonly used bias correction methods are designed to match statistics of the overall simulated rainfall with observations. This assumes that change in the mix of different types of extreme rainfall events (i.e. convective and non-convective) in a warmer climate is of little relevance in the estimation of overall change, an assumption that is not supported by empirical or physical evidence. This study proposes an alternative approach to account for the potential change of alternate rainfall types, characterized here by synoptic weather patterns (SPs) using self-organizing maps classification. The objective of this study is to evaluate the added influence of SPs on the bias correction, which is achieved by comparing the corrected distribution of future extreme rainfall with that using conventional quantile mapping. A comprehensive synthetic experiment is first defined to investigate the conditions under which the additional information of SPs makes a significant difference to the bias correction. Using over 600,000 synthetic cases, statistically significant differences are found to be present in 46% cases. This is followed by a case study over the Sydney region using a high-resolution run of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, which indicates a small change in the proportions of the SPs and a statistically significant change in the extreme rainfall over the region, although the differences between the changes obtained from the two bias correction methods are not statistically significant.

Standardized synoptic cancer pathology reports - so what and who cares? A population-based satisfaction survey of 970 pathologists, surgeons, and oncologists.

PubMed

Lankshear, Sara; Srigley, John; McGowan, Thomas; Yurcan, Marta; Sawka, Carol

2013-11-01

Cancer Care Ontario implemented synoptic pathology reporting across Ontario, impacting the practice of pathologists, surgeons, and medical and radiation oncologists. The benefits of standardized synoptic pathology reporting include enhanced completeness and improved consistency in comparison with narrative reports, with reported challenges including increased workload and report turnaround time. To determine the impact of synoptic pathology reporting on physician satisfaction specific to practice and process. A descriptive, cross-sectional design was utilized involving 970 clinicians across 27 hospitals. An 11-item survey was developed to obtain information regarding timeliness, completeness, clarity, and usability. Open-ended questions were also employed to obtain qualitative comments. A 51% response rate was obtained, with descriptive statistics reporting that physicians perceive synoptic reports as significantly better than narrative reports. Correlation analysis revealed a moderately strong, positive relationship between respondents' perceptions of overall satisfaction with the level of information provided and perceptions of completeness for clinical decision making (r = 0.750, P < .001) and ease of finding information for clinical decision making (r = 0.663, P < .001). Dependent t tests showed a statistically significant difference in the satisfaction scores of pathologists and oncologists (t169 = 3.044, P = .003). Qualitative comments revealed technology-related issues as the most frequently cited factor impacting timeliness of report completion. This study provides evidence of strong physician satisfaction with synoptic cancer pathology reporting as a clinical decision support tool in the diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of cancer patients.

Changes in the ultraviolet spectrum of EG Andromedae

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stencel, R. E.

1984-01-01

Ultraviolet observations of EG Andromedae, a symbiotic star, are reported which clearly show pronounced eclipse-like effects on the high-temperature far-UV continuum. Continuum and emission-line variations with phase are reported and related to synoptic hydrogen alpha data. System parameters are characterized.

Modeling Mars Cyclogenesis and Frontal Waves: Seasonal Variations and Implications on Dust Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, J. L.; Kahre, M. A.

2014-01-01

Between late autumn through early spring,middle and high latitudes onMars exhibit strong equator-to-polemean temperature contrasts (i.e., "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that such strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic period waves) [1, 2]. For a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, these large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. The wave-like disturbances serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum between low and high latitudes of the planet. Through cyclonic/anticyclonic winds, intense shear deformations, contractions-dilatations in temperature and density, and sharp perturbations amongst atmospheric tracers (i.e., dust, volatiles (e.g., water vapor) and condensates (e.g., water-ice cloud particles)), Mars' extratropical weather systems have significant sub-synoptic scale ramifications by supporting atmospheric frontal waves (Fig. 1).

Synoptic Factors Affecting Structure Predictability of Hurricane Alex (2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Aleman, J. J.; Evans, J. L.; Kowaleski, A. M.

2016-12-01

On January 7, 2016, a disturbance formed over the western North Atlantic basin. After undergoing tropical transition, the system became the first hurricane of 2016 - and the first North Atlantic hurricane to form in January since 1938. Already an extremely rare hurricane event, Alex then underwent extratropical transition [ET] just north of the Azores Islands. We examine the factors affecting Alex's structural evolution through a new technique called path-clustering. In this way, 51 ensembles from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Ensemble Prediction System (ECMWF-EPS) are grouped based on similarities in the storm's path through the Cyclone Phase Space (CPS). The differing clusters group various possible scenarios of structural development represented in the ensemble forecasts. As a result, it is possible to shed light on the role of the synoptic scale in changing the structure of this hurricane in the midlatitudes through intercomparison of the most "realistic" forecast of the evolution of Alex and the other physically plausible modes of its development.

Study of the tornado event in Greece on March 25, 2009: Synoptic analysis and numerical modeling using modified topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsangouras, I. T.; Nastos, P. T.; Pytharoulis, I.

2016-03-01

Recent research revealed that western Greece and NW Peloponnese are regions that favor prefrontal tornadic incidence. On March 25, 2009 a tornado developed approximately at 10:30 UTC near Varda village (NW Peloponnese). Tornado intensity was T4-T5 (TORRO scale) and consequently caused an economic impact of 350,000 € over the local society. The goals of this study are: (i) to analyze synoptic and remote sensing features regarding the tornado event over NW Peloponnese and (ii) to investigate the role of topography in tornadogenesis triggered under strong synoptic scale forcing over that area. Synoptic analysis was based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data sets. The analysis of daily anomaly of synoptic conditions with respect to 30 years' climatology (1981-2010), was based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis data sets. In addition, numerous remote sensing data sets were derived by the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS) weather station network in order to better interpret the examined tornado event. Finally, numerical modeling was performed using the non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), initialized by ECMWF gridded analyses, with telescoping nested grids that allow the representation of atmospheric circulations ranging from the synoptic scale down to the meso-scale. The two numerical experiments were performed on the basis of: (a) the presence and (b) the absence of topography (landscape), so as to determine whether the occurrence of a tornado - identified by diagnostic instability indices - could be indicated by modifying topography. The energy helicity index (EHI), the bulk Richardson number (BRN) shear, the storm-relative environmental helicity (SRH), and the maximum convective available potential energy (MCAPE, for parcels with maximum θe) were considered as principal diagnostic instability variables and employed in both numerical experiments. Furthermore, model verification was conducted, accompanied by analysis of the absolute vorticity budget. Synoptic analysis revealed that the synoptic weather conditions on March 25, 2009 are in agreement with the composite synoptic climatology for tornado days over western Greece. In addition, maximum daily anomalies at the barometric levels of 500, 700, 850 and 925 hPa were found, compared to the climatology of composite mean anomalies for tornado days over western Greece. Numerical simulations revealed that the topography of NW Peloponnese did not constitute an important factor during the tornado event on March 25, 2009, based on EHI, SRH, BRN, and MCAPE analyses.

A Synoptic Analysis of the Change from the Geocentric to the Heliocentric Conception of the Solar System.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilson, Roosevelt L.

The changes which occurred in man's view of the solar system from the time of Ptolemy to that of Galileo are presented. Contained is a brief review of the chain of events which resulted in the acceptance of a heliocentric system. Ptolomy's theory is described and a diagram illustrates the paths of the epicycle of Mars according to his geocentric…

SOHO EIT Carrington maps from synoptic full-disk data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, B. J.; Newmark, J. S.; Gurman, J. B.; Delaboudiniere, J. P.; Clette, F.; Gibson, S. E.

1997-01-01

The solar synoptic maps, obtained from observations carried out since May 1996 by the extreme-ultraviolet imaging telescope (EIT) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), are presented. The maps were constructed for each Carrington rotation with the calibrated data. The off-limb maps at 1.05 and 1.10 solar radii were generated for three coronal lines using the standard applied to coronagraph synoptic maps. The maps reveal several aspects of the solar structure over the entire rotation and are used in the whole sun month modeling campaign. @txt extreme-ultraviolet imaging telescope

Are meteorological conditions favoring hail precipitation change in Southern Europe? Analysis of the period 1948-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, J. L.; Merino, A.; Melcón, P.; García-Ortega, E.; Fernández-González, S.; Berthet, C.; Dessens, J.

2017-12-01

In the context of a warming climate, one of the variables currently under investigation is related to the detection of possible changes in hail precipitation. In this work, we analyze hail frequencies in one of the most affected areas by this phenomenon in Europe, southern France. Here, an extensive hail detection network has been in operation since 1988. In general, the detection of hailfall is very uncertain. To overcome the constraints of scarcity and poor standardization of hail detection and monitoring systems, some relationships between hailstorm occurrence and synoptic, mesoscale or thermodynamic atmospheric characteristics have been proposed in different areas. Therefore, we analyzed meteorological fields at synoptic scale that are related to the formation of hailstorms in the study area, i.e., geopotential height at 500 hPa, sea level pressure, and lapse-rate between 850 and 500 hPa. These fields describe the state of the atmosphere at low and mid levels, and facilitate the evaluation of thermal and dynamic instability. Using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen estimator, we examined trends in the three fields during the period 1948-2015 and their spatial patterns, revealing an evolution toward synoptic environments that favor hail precipitation in the Mediterranean region.

Synoptic controls on precipitation pathways and snow delivery to high-accumulation ice core sites in the Ross Sea region, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinclair, K. E.; Bertler, N. A. N.; Trompetter, W. J.

2010-11-01

Dominant storm tracks to two ice core sites on the western margin of the Ross Sea, Antarctica (Skinner Saddle (SKS) and Evans Piedmont Glacier), are investigated to establish key synoptic controls on snow accumulation. This is critical in terms of understanding the seasonality, source regions, and transport pathways of precipitation delivered to these sites. In situ snow depth and meteorological observations are used to identify major accumulation events in 2007-2008, which differ considerably between sites in terms of their magnitude and seasonal distribution. While snowfall at Evans Piedmont Glacier occurs almost exclusively during summer and spring, Skinner Saddle receives precipitation year round with a lull during the months of April and May. Cluster analysis of daily back trajectories reveals that the highest-accumulation days at both sites result from fast-moving air masses, associated with synoptic-scale low-pressure systems. There is evidence that short-duration pulses of snowfall at SKS also originate from mesocyclone development over the Ross Ice Shelf and local moisture sources. Changes in the frequency and seasonal distribution of these mechanisms of precipitation delivery will have a marked impact on annual accumulation over time and will therefore need careful consideration during the interpretation of stable isotope and geochemical records from these ice cores.

Evaluating the predictability of PM10 grades in Seoul, Korea using a neural network model based on synoptic patterns.

PubMed

Hur, Sun-Kyong; Oh, Hye-Ryun; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Kim, Jinwon; Song, Chang-Keun; Chang, Lim-Seok; Lee, Jae-Bum

2016-11-01

As of November 2014, the Korean Ministry of Environment (KME) has been forecasting the concentration of particulate matter with diameters ≤ 10 μm (PM 10 ) classified into four grades: low (PM 10  ≤ 30 μg m -3 ), moderate (30 < PM 10  ≤ 80 μg m -3 ), high (80 < PM 10  ≤ 150 μg m -3 ), and very high (PM 10  > 150 μg m -3 ). The KME operational center generates PM 10 forecasts using statistical and chemistry-transport models, but the overall performance and the hit rate for the four PM 10 grades has not previously been evaluated. To provide a statistical reference for the current air quality forecasting system, we have developed a neural network model based on the synoptic patterns of several meteorological fields such as geopotential height, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind. Hindcast of the four PM 10 grades in Seoul, Korea was performed for the cold seasons (October-March) of 2001-2014 when the high and very high PM 10 grades are frequently observed. Because synoptic patterns of the meteorological fields are distinctive for each PM 10 grade, these fields were adopted and quantified as predictors in the form of cosine similarities to train the neural network model. Using these predictors in conjunction with the PM 10 concentration in Seoul from the day before prediction as an additional predictor, an overall hit rate of 69% was achieved; the hit rates for the low, moderate, high, and very high PM 10 grades were 33%, 83%, 45%, and 33%, respectively. Our findings also suggest that the synoptic patterns of meteorological variables are reliable predictors for the identification of the favorable conditions for each PM 10 grade, as well as for the transboundary transport of PM 10 from China. This evaluation of PM 10 predictability can be reliably used as a statistical reference and further, complement to the current air quality forecasting system. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Machine Learning-based Transient Brokers for Real-time Classification of the LSST Alert Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narayan, Gautham; Zaidi, Tayeb; Soraisam, Monika; ANTARES Collaboration

2018-01-01

The number of transient events discovered by wide-field time-domain surveys already far outstrips the combined followup resources of the astronomical community. This number will only increase as we progress towards the commissioning of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), breaking the community's current followup paradigm. Transient brokers - software to sift through, characterize, annotate and prioritize events for followup - will be a critical tool for managing alert streams in the LSST era. Developing the algorithms that underlie the brokers, and obtaining simulated LSST-like datasets prior to LSST commissioning, to train and test these algorithms are formidable, though not insurmountable challenges. The Arizona-NOAO Temporal Analysis and Response to Events System (ANTARES) is a joint project of the National Optical Astronomy Observatory and the Department of Computer Science at the University of Arizona. We have been developing completely automated methods to characterize and classify variable and transient events from their multiband optical photometry. We describe the hierarchical ensemble machine learning algorithm we are developing, and test its performance on sparse, unevenly sampled, heteroskedastic data from various existing observational campaigns, as well as our progress towards incorporating these into a real-time event broker working on live alert streams from time-domain surveys.

Lithologic discrimination of volcanic and sedimentary rocks by spectral examination of Landsat TM data from the Puma, Central Andes Mountains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fielding, E. J.

1986-01-01

The Central Andes are widely used as a modern example of noncollisional mountain-building processes. The Puna is a high plateau in the Chilean and Argentine Central Andes extending southward from the altiplano of Bolivia and Peru. Young tectonic and volcanic features are well exposed on the surface of the arid Puna, making them prime targets for the application of high-resolution space imagery such as Shuttle Imaging Radar B and Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM). Two TM scene quadrants from this area are analyzed using interactive color image processing, examination, and automated classification algorithms. The large volumes of these high-resolution datasets require significantly different techniques than have been used previously for the interpretation of Landsat MSS data. Preliminary results include the determination of the radiance spectra of several volcanic and sedimentary rock units and the use of the spectra for automated classification. Structural interpretations have revealed several previously unknown folds in late Tertiary strata, and key zones have been targeted to be investigated in the field. The synoptic view of space imagery is already filling a critical gap between low-resolution geophysical data and traditional geologic field mapping in the reconnaissance study of poorly mapped mountain frontiers such as the Puna.

Cluster analysis of Southeastern U.S. climate stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stooksbury, D. E.; Michaels, P. J.

1991-09-01

A two-step cluster analysis of 449 Southeastern climate stations is used to objectively determine general climate clusters (groups of climate stations) for eight southeastern states. The purpose is objectively to define regions of climatic homogeneity that should perform more robustly in subsequent climatic impact models. This type of analysis has been successfully used in many related climate research problems including the determination of corn/climate districts in Iowa (Ortiz-Valdez, 1985) and the classification of synoptic climate types (Davis, 1988). These general climate clusters may be more appropriate for climate research than the standard climate divisions (CD) groupings of climate stations, which are modifications of the agro-economic United States Department of Agriculture crop reporting districts. Unlike the CD's, these objectively determined climate clusters are not restricted by state borders and thus have reduced multicollinearity which makes them more appropriate for the study of the impact of climate and climatic change.

Development of computer software to analyze entire LANDSAT scenes and to summarize classification results of variable-size polygons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, B. J. (Principal Investigator); Baumer, G. M.; Myers, W. L.; Sykes, S. G.

1981-01-01

The Forest Pest Management Division (FPMD) of the Pennsylvania Bureau of Forestry has the responsibility for conducting annual surveys of the State's forest lands to accurately detect, map, and appraise forest insect infestations. A standardized, timely, and cost-effective method of accurately surveying forests and their condition should enhance the probability of suppressing infestations. The repetitive and synoptic coverage provided by LANDSAT (formerly ERTS) makes such satellite-derived data potentially attractive as a survey medium for monitoring forest insect damage over large areas. Forest Pest Management Division personnel have expressed keen interest in LANDSAT data and have informally cooperated with NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) since 1976 in the development of techniques to facilitate their use. The results of this work indicate that it may be feasible to use LANDSAT digital data to conduct annual surveys of insect defoliation of hardwood forests.

Summary of an integrated ERTS-1 project and its results at the Missouri Geological Survey

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, J. A.; Allen, W. H.; Rath, D. L.; Rueff, A.

1974-01-01

Use of the ERTS imagery involved the recognition and interpretation of various ground patterns. Analysis and application are tied to ongoing programs. Specific studies utilizing the imagery and NASA aircraft photography are: a statewide lake and dam inventory; assessment of flooding and floodprone areas along the Missouri portion of the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers; land-use classification for several counties; structural features in selected areas; and Pleistocene features in northern Missouri. Though it has been suggested that repetitive coverage is not necessary for geologic studies, it is this specific feature along with the synoptic view of large portions of the State that provided the potential for the utilization of the ERTS imagery in Missouri. Other State agencies, Departments of Conservation, Agriculture, and Community Affairs, have expressed interest in the potential application of ERTS data in their respective fields.

Projected Near-Earth Object Discovery Performance of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chesley, Steven R.; Veres, Peter

2017-01-01

This report describes the methodology and results of an assessment study of the performance of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) in its planned efforts to detect and catalog near-Earth objects (NEOs).

Arctic Sea Ice Classification and Mapping for Surface Albedo Parameterization in Sea Ice Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nghiem, S. V.; Clemente-Colón, P.; Perovich, D. K.; Polashenski, C.; Simpson, W. R.; Rigor, I. G.; Woods, J. E.; Nguyen, D. T.; Neumann, G.

2016-12-01

A regime shift of Arctic sea ice from predominantly perennial sea ice (multi-year ice or MYI) to seasonal sea ice (first-year ice or FYI) has occurred in recent decades. This shift has profoundly altered the proportional composition of different sea ice classes and the surface albedo distribution pertaining to each sea ice class. Such changes impacts physical, chemical, and biological processes in the Arctic atmosphere-ice-ocean system. The drastic changes upset the traditional geophysical representation of surface albedo of the Arctic sea ice cover in current models. A critical science issue is that these profound changes must be rigorously and systematically observed and characterized to enable a transformative re-parameterization of key model inputs, such as ice surface albedo, to ice-ocean-atmosphere climate modeling in order to obtain re-analyses that accurately reproduce Arctic changes and also to improve sea ice and weather forecast models. Addressing this challenge is a strategy identified by the National Research Council study on "Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice - Challenges and Strategies" to replicate the new Arctic reality. We review results of albedo characteristics associated with different sea ice classes such as FYI and MYI. Then we demonstrate the capability for sea ice classification and mapping using algorithms developed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and by the U.S. National Ice Center for use with multi-sourced satellite radar data at L, C, and Ku bands. Results obtained with independent algorithms for different radar frequencies consistently identify sea ice classes and thereby cross-verify the sea ice classification methods. Moreover, field observations obtained from buoy webcams and along an extensive trek across Elson Lagoon and a sector of the Beaufort Sea during the BRomine, Ozone, and Mercury EXperiment (BROMEX) in March 2012 are used to validate satellite products of sea ice classes. This research enables the mapping of Arctic sea ice classes over multiple decades using multiple satellite radar datasets with both coarse resolution for synoptic scales and high resolution for local and regional scales, which are crucial for realistic surface albedo parameterization to significantly advance sea ice forecast and projection models.

Synoptic Control of Contrail Cirrus Life Cycles and Their Modification Due to Reduced Soot Number Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bier, A.; Burkhardt, U.; Bock, L.

2017-11-01

The atmospheric state, aircraft emissions, and engine properties determine formation and initial properties of contrails. The synoptic situation controls microphysical and dynamical processes and causes a wide variability of contrail cirrus life cycles. A reduction of soot particle number emissions, resulting, for example, from the use of alternative fuels, strongly impacts initial ice crystal numbers and microphysical process rates of contrail cirrus. We use the European Centre/Hamburg (ECHAM) climate model version 5 including a contrail cirrus modul, studying process rates, properties, and life cycles of contrail cirrus clusters within different synoptic situations. The impact of reduced soot number emissions is approximated by a reduction in the initial ice crystal number, exemplarily studied for 80%. Contrail cirrus microphysical and macrophysical properties can depend much more strongly on the synoptic situation than on the initial ice crystal number. They can attain a large cover, optical depth, and ice water content in long-lived and large-scale ice-supersaturated areas, making them particularly climate-relevant. In those synoptic situations, the accumulated ice crystal loss due to sedimentation is increased by around 15% and the volume of contrail cirrus, exceeding an optical depth of 0.02, and their short-wave radiative impact are strongly decreased due to reduced soot emissions. These reductions are of little consequence in short-lived and small-scale ice-supersaturated areas, where contrail cirrus stay optically very thin and attain a low cover. The synoptic situations in which long-lived and climate-relevant contrail cirrus clusters can be found over the eastern U.S. occur in around 25% of cases.

Trends in winter circulation over the British Isles and central Europe in twenty-first century projections by 25 CMIP5 GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stryhal, Jan; Huth, Radan

2018-03-01

Winter midlatitude atmospheric circulation has been extensively studied for its tight link to surface weather, and automated circulation classifications have often been used to this end. Here, eight such classifications are applied to daily sea level pressure patterns simulated by an ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs twenty-first century projections for the British Isles and central Europe in order to robustly estimate future changes in frequency, persistence, and strength of synoptic-scale circulation there. All methods are able to identify present-day biases of models reported before, such as an overestimated occurrence of zonal flow and underestimation of anticyclonic conditions and easterly advection, although the strength of these biases varies among the methods. In future, models show that the zonal flow will become more frequent while the strength of the mean flow is not projected to change. Over the British Isles, the models that better simulate the latitude of zonal flow over the historical period indicate a slight equatorward shift of westerlies in their projections, while the poleward expansion of circulation—expected in future at global scale—is apparent in those models that have large errors. Over central Europe, some classifications indicate an increase in persistence and especially in frequency of anticyclonic types, which is, however, shown to be rather an artifact of some methods than a real feature. On the other hand, the easterly flow is robustly projected to become markedly weaker in central Europe, which we hypothesize might be an important factor contributing to the projected decrease of cold extremes there.

The Oklahoma Geographic Information Retrieval System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blanchard, W. A.

1982-01-01

The Oklahoma Geographic Information Retrieval System (OGIRS) is a highly interactive data entry, storage, manipulation, and display software system for use with geographically referenced data. Although originally developed for a project concerned with coal strip mine reclamation, OGIRS is capable of handling any geographically referenced data for a variety of natural resource management applications. A special effort has been made to integrate remotely sensed data into the information system. The timeliness and synoptic coverage of satellite data are particularly useful attributes for inclusion into the geographic information system.

Ocean color - Availability of the global data set

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feldman, Gene; Kuring, Norman; Ng, Carolyn; Esaias, Wayne; Mcclain, Chuck; Elrod, Jane; Maynard, Nancy; Endres, Dan

1989-01-01

The use of satellite observations of ocean color to provide reliable estimates of marine phytoplankton biomass on synoptic scales is examined. An overview is given of the Coastal Zone Color Scanner data processing system. The archiving and distribution of ocean color data are discussed, and NASA-sponsored archive sites are listed.

DEVELOPMENT OF AN ADJUSTABLE BUOYANCY BALLOON TRACER OF ATMOSPHERIC MOTION. PHASE 1. SYSTEMS DESIGN AND DEMONSTRATION OF FEASIBILITY

EPA Science Inventory

An Adjustable Buoyancy Balloon Tracer of Atmospheric Motion is a research tool which allows one to follow atmospheric flows in both the horizontal and the vertical, including the weak, sustained vertical motion associated with meso- and synoptic- scale atmospheric disturbances. T...

Airline flight planning - The weather connection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinberg, R.

1981-01-01

The history of airline flight planning is briefly reviewed. Over half a century ago, when scheduled airline services began, weather data were almost nonexistent. By the early 1950's a reliable synoptic network provided upper air reports. The next 15 years saw a rapid growth in commercial aviation, and airlines introduced computer techniques to flight planning. The 1970's saw the development of weather satellites. The current state of flight planning activities is analyzed. It is found that accurate flight planning will require meteorological information on a finer scale than can be provided by a synoptic forecast. Opportunities for a new approach are examined, giving attention to the available options, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model, limited area fine mesh models, man-computer interactive display systems, the use of interactive techniques with the present upper air data base, and the implementation of interactive techniques.

Synoptic analysis of heat-related mortality in Sydney, Australia, 1993-2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaneckova, Pavla; Hart, Melissa A.; Beggs, Paul J.; de Dear, Richard J.

2008-07-01

Exposure to extremely hot weather has been associated with increased mortality. Temporal Synoptic Index is an effective method used to analyze the relationship between mortality and combined weather factors. The aim of this study is to examine the short-term effect of ambient heat on mortality in Sydney during the warmest 6-month period (October-March) for the years 1993-2001. Eleven synoptic categories were related to daily mortality rates in Sydney. Two distinctive warm categories were associated with significantly higher mortality rates. Hot, dry and relatively rare Synoptic Category 7 (SC7) days showed the highest daily mortality rates, followed by warm and humid SC3 days, which occurred more frequently. Increased mortality was more pronounced among the elderly population, and gender-stratified analysis showed women to be more vulnerable. Mortality on the day of the weather event was higher than 1 or 2 days after the adverse synoptic situation. Ozone and particulate matter smaller than 10 µm were found at high concentrations in SC3 and SC7, respectively, but their impact on mortality was not clear. The population of Sydney was found to be vulnerable to high temperatures, with a lower susceptibility than those of some cities in the USA and Europe.

Comparison of Accuracy and Speed of Information Identification by Nonpathologists in Synoptic Reports With Different Formats.

PubMed

Renshaw, Andrew A; Gould, Edwin W

2017-03-01

- The College of American Pathologists requires synoptic reports for specific types of pathology reports. - To compare the accuracy and speed of information retrieval in synoptic reports of different formats. - We assessed the performance of 28 nonpathologists from 4 different types of users (cancer registrars, MDs, medical non-MDs, and nonmedical) at identifying specific information in various formatted synoptic reports, using a computerized quiz that measured both accuracy and speed. - There was no significant difference in the accuracy of data identification for any user group or in any format. While there were significant differences in raw time between users, these were eliminated when normalized times were used. Compared with the standard format of a required data element (RDE) and response on 1 line, both a list of responses without an RDE (21%, P < .001) and a paired response with more concise text (33%, P < .001) were significantly faster. In contrast, both the 2-line format (RDE header on one line, response indented on the second line) (12%, P < .001) and a report with the RDE response pairs in a random order were significantly slower (16%, P < .001). - There are significant differences in ease of use by nonpathologists between different synoptic report formats. Such information may be useful in deciding between different format options.

Impacts of synoptic condition and planetary boundary layer structure on the trans-boundary aerosol transport from Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Yucong; Guo, Jianping; Liu, Shuhua; Zhao, Chun; Li, Xiaolan; Zhang, Gen; Wei, Wei; Ma, Yanjun

2018-05-01

The northeastern China frequently experiences severe aerosol pollution in winter under unfavorable meteorological conditions. How and to what extent the meteorological factors affect the air quality there are not yet clearly understood. Thus, this study investigated the impacts of synoptic patterns on the aerosol transport and planetary boundary layer (PBL) structure in Shenyang from 1 to 3 December 2016, using surface observations, sounding measurements, satellite data, and three-dimensional simulations. Results showed that the aerosol pollution occurred in Shenyang was not only related to the local emissions, but also contributed by trans-boundary transport of aerosols from the Beiijng-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region. In the presence of the westerly and southwesterly synoptic winds, the aerosols emitted from BTH could be brought to Shenyang. From December 2 to 3, the aerosols emitted from BTH accounted for ∼20% of near-surface PM2.5 in Shenyang. In addition, the large-scale synoptic forcings could affect the vertical mixing of pollutants through modulating the PBL structure in Shenyang. The westerly and southwesterly synoptic winds not only brought the aerosols but also the warmer air masses from the southwest regions to Shenyang. The strong warm advections above PBL could enhance the already existing thermal inversion layers capping over PBL in Shenyang, leading to the suppressions of PBL. Both the trans-boundary transport of aerosols and the suppressions of PBL caused by the large-scale synoptic forcings should be partly responsible for the poor air quality in Shenyang, in addition to the high pollutant emissions. The present study revealed the physical mechanisms underlying the aerosol pollution in Shenyang, which has important implications for better forecasting and controlling the aerosols pollution.

Design of a consensus-derived synoptic operative report for lung cancer surgery.

PubMed

Schneider, Laura; Shargall, Yaron; Schieman, Colin; Seely, Andrew J; Srinathan, Sadeesh; Malthaner, Richard A; Pierre, Andrew F; Safieddine, Najib; Vaillancourt, Rosaire; Plourde, Madelaine; Bond, James; Johnson, Scott; Smith, Shona E; Finley, Christian J

2014-04-01

For lung cancer surgery, a narrative operative report is the standard reporting procedure, whereas a synoptic-style report is increasingly utilized by healthcare professionals in various specialties with great success. A synoptic operative report more succinctly and accurately captures vital information and is rapidly generated with good intraobserver reliability. The objective of this study was to systematically develop a synoptic operative report for lung cancer surgery following a modified Delphi consensus model with the support of the Canadian thoracic surgery community. Using online survey software, thoracic surgeons and related physicians were asked to suggest and rate data elements for a synoptic report following the modified Delphi consensus model. The consensus exercise-derived template was forwarded to a small working group, who further refined the definition and priority designation of elements until the working group had reached a satisfactory consensus. In all, 139 physicians were invited to participate in the consensus exercise, with 36.7%, 44.6%, and 19.5% response rates, respectively, in the three rounds. Eighty-nine elements were agreed upon at the conclusion of the exercise, but 141 elements were forwarded to the working group. The working group agreed upon a final data set of 180 independently defined data elements, with 72 mandatory and 108 optional elements for implementation in the final report. This study demonstrates the process involved in developing a multidisciplinary, consensus-based synoptic lung cancer operative report. This novel report style is a quality improvement initiative to improve the capture, dissemination, readability, and potential utility of critical surgical information. Copyright © 2014 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The COST733 circulation type classification software: an example for surface ozone concentrations in Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demuzere, Matthias; Kassomenos, P.; Philipp, A.

2011-08-01

In the framework of the COST733 Action "Harmonisation and Applications of Weather Types Classifications for European Regions" a new circulation type classification software (hereafter, referred to as cost733class software) is developed. The cost733class software contains a variety of (European) classification methods and is flexible towards choice of domain of interest, input variables, time step, number of circulation types, sequencing and (weighted) target variables. This work introduces the capabilities of the cost733class software in which the resulting circulation types (CTs) from various circulation type classifications (CTCs) are applied on observed summer surface ozone concentrations in Central Europe. Firstly, the main characteristics of the CTCs in terms of circulation pattern frequencies are addressed using the baseline COST733 catalogue (cat 2.0), at present the latest product of the new cost733class software. In a second step, the probabilistic Brier skill score is used to quantify the explanatory power of all classifications in terms of the maximum 8 hourly mean ozone concentrations exceeding the 120-μg/m3 threshold; this was based on ozone concentrations from 130 Central European measurement stations. Averaged evaluation results over all stations indicate generally higher performance of CTCs with a higher number of types. Within the subset of methodologies with a similar number of types, the results suggest that the use of CTCs based on optimisation algorithms are performing slightly better than those which are based on other algorithms (predefined thresholds, principal component analysis and leader algorithms). The results are further elaborated by exploring additional capabilities of the cost733class software. Sensitivity experiments are performed using different domain sizes, input variables, seasonally based classifications and multiple-day sequencing. As an illustration, CTCs which are also conditioned towards temperature with various weights are derived and tested similarly. All results exploit a physical interpretation by adapting the environment-to-circulation approach, providing more detailed information on specific synoptic conditions prevailing on days with high surface ozone concentrations. This research does not intend to bring forward a favourite classification methodology or construct a statistical ozone forecasting tool but should be seen as an introduction to the possibilities of the cost733class software. It this respect, the results presented here can provide a basic user support for the cost733class software and the development of a more user- or application-specific CTC approach.

A SYNOPTIC APPROACH FOR ASSESSING CUMULATIVE IMPACTS TO WETLANDS

EPA Science Inventory

The US Environmental Protection Agency's Wetlands Research Program has developed the synoptic approach as a proposed method for assessing cumulative impacts to wetlands by providing both a general and a comprehensive view of the environment. It can also be applied more broadly to...

Sampling theory for asynoptic satellite observations. I Space-time spectra, resolution, and aliasing. II - Fast Fourier synoptic mapping

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salby, M. L.

1982-01-01

An evaluation of the information content of asynoptic data taken in the form of nadir sonde and limb scan observations is presented, and a one-to-one correspondence is established between the alias-free data and twice-daily synoptic maps. Attention is given to space and time limitations of sampling and the orbital geometry is discussed. The sampling pattern is demonstrated to determine unique space-time spectra at all wavenumbers and frequencies. Spectral resolution and aliasing are explored, while restrictions on sampling and information content are defined. It is noted that irregular sampling at high latitudes produces spurious contamination effects. An Asynoptic Sampling Theorem is thereby formulated, as is a Synoptic Retrieval Theorem, in the second part of the article. In the latter, a procedure is developed for retrieving the unique correspondence between the asymptotic data and the synoptic maps. Applications examples are provided using data from the Nimbus-6 satellite.

Future projections of synoptic weather types over the Arabian Peninsula during the twenty-first century using an ensemble of CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; McCabe, Matthew F.

2017-10-01

An assessment of future change in synoptic conditions over the Arabian Peninsula throughout the twenty-first century was performed using 20 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. We employed the mean sea level pressure (SLP) data from model output together with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and compared the relevant circulation types produced by the Lamb classification scheme for the base period 1975-2000. Overall, model results illustrated good agreement with the reanalysis, albeit with a tendency to underestimate cyclonic (C) and southeasterly (SE) patterns and to overestimate anticyclones and directional flows. We also investigated future projections for each circulation-type during the rainy season (December-May) using three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), comprising RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Overall, two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5) revealed a statistically significant increase in weather types favoring above normal rainfall in the region (e.g., C and E-types). In contrast, weather types associated with lower amounts of rainfall (e.g., anticyclones) are projected to decrease in winter but increase in spring. For all scenarios, there was consistent agreement on the sign of change (i.e., positive/negative) for the most frequent patterns (e.g., C, SE, E and A-types), whereas the sign was uncertain for less recurrent types (e.g., N, NW, SE, and W). The projected changes in weather type frequencies in the region can be viewed not only as indicators of change in rainfall response but may also be used to inform impact studies pertinent to water resource planning and management, extreme weather analysis, and agricultural production.

An emperor penguin population estimate: the first global, synoptic survey of a species from space.

PubMed

Fretwell, Peter T; Larue, Michelle A; Morin, Paul; Kooyman, Gerald L; Wienecke, Barbara; Ratcliffe, Norman; Fox, Adrian J; Fleming, Andrew H; Porter, Claire; Trathan, Phil N

2012-01-01

Our aim was to estimate the population of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes fosteri) using a single synoptic survey. We examined the whole continental coastline of Antarctica using a combination of medium resolution and Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery to identify emperor penguin colony locations. Where colonies were identified, VHR imagery was obtained in the 2009 breeding season. The remotely-sensed images were then analysed using a supervised classification method to separate penguins from snow, shadow and guano. Actual counts of penguins from eleven ground truthing sites were used to convert these classified areas into numbers of penguins using a robust regression algorithm.We found four new colonies and confirmed the location of three previously suspected sites giving a total number of emperor penguin breeding colonies of 46. We estimated the breeding population of emperor penguins at each colony during 2009 and provide a population estimate of ~238,000 breeding pairs (compared with the last previously published count of 135,000-175,000 pairs). Based on published values of the relationship between breeders and non-breeders, this translates to a total population of ~595,000 adult birds.There is a growing consensus in the literature that global and regional emperor penguin populations will be affected by changing climate, a driver thought to be critical to their future survival. However, a complete understanding is severely limited by the lack of detailed knowledge about much of their ecology, and importantly a poor understanding of their total breeding population. To address the second of these issues, our work now provides a comprehensive estimate of the total breeding population that can be used in future population models and will provide a baseline for long-term research.

An Emperor Penguin Population Estimate: The First Global, Synoptic Survey of a Species from Space

PubMed Central

Fretwell, Peter T.; LaRue, Michelle A.; Morin, Paul; Kooyman, Gerald L.; Wienecke, Barbara; Ratcliffe, Norman; Fox, Adrian J.; Fleming, Andrew H.; Porter, Claire; Trathan, Phil N.

2012-01-01

Our aim was to estimate the population of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes fosteri) using a single synoptic survey. We examined the whole continental coastline of Antarctica using a combination of medium resolution and Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery to identify emperor penguin colony locations. Where colonies were identified, VHR imagery was obtained in the 2009 breeding season. The remotely-sensed images were then analysed using a supervised classification method to separate penguins from snow, shadow and guano. Actual counts of penguins from eleven ground truthing sites were used to convert these classified areas into numbers of penguins using a robust regression algorithm. We found four new colonies and confirmed the location of three previously suspected sites giving a total number of emperor penguin breeding colonies of 46. We estimated the breeding population of emperor penguins at each colony during 2009 and provide a population estimate of ∼238,000 breeding pairs (compared with the last previously published count of 135,000–175,000 pairs). Based on published values of the relationship between breeders and non-breeders, this translates to a total population of ∼595,000 adult birds. There is a growing consensus in the literature that global and regional emperor penguin populations will be affected by changing climate, a driver thought to be critical to their future survival. However, a complete understanding is severely limited by the lack of detailed knowledge about much of their ecology, and importantly a poor understanding of their total breeding population. To address the second of these issues, our work now provides a comprehensive estimate of the total breeding population that can be used in future population models and will provide a baseline for long-term research. PMID:22514609

Real-time Transients from Palomar-QUEST Synoptic Sky Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahabal, Ashish A.; Drake, A.; Djorgovski, S. G.; Donalek, C.; Glikman, E.; Graham, M. J.; Williams, R.; Baltay, C.; Rabinowitz, D.; Bauer, A.; Ellman, N.; Lauer, R.; PQ Team Indiana

2006-12-01

The data from the driftscans of the Palomar-QUEST synoptic sky survey is now routinely processed in real-time. We describe here the various components of the pipeline. We search for both variable and transient objects, including supernovae, variable AGN, GRB orphan afterglows, cataclysmic variables, interesting stellar flares, novae, other types of variable stars, and do not exclude the possibility of even entirely new types of objects or phenomena. In order to flag as many asteroids as possible we have been doing two 4-hour scans of the same area covering 250 sq. deg and detect over a million sources. Flagging a source as a candidate transient requires detection in at least two filters besides its absence in fiducial sky constructed from past images. We use various software filters to eliminate instrument artifacts, and false alarms due to the proximity of bright, saturated stars which dominate the initial detection rate. This leaves up to a couple of hundred asteroids and genuine transients. Previously known asteroids are flagged through an automated comparison with a databases of known asteroids, and new ones through apparent motion. In the end, we have typically 10 20 astrophysical transients remaining per night, and we are currently working on their automated classification, and spectroscopic follow-up. We present preliminary results from real-time follow-up of a few candidates carried out with the Palomar 200-inch telescope as part of a pilot project. Finally we outline the plans for the much harder problem of classifying the transients more accurately for distribution through VOEventNet to astronomers interested only in specific types of transients, more details and overall setting of which is covered in our VOEventNet poster (Drake et al.)

Synoptic and Mesoscale Climatologies of Severe Local Storms for the American Midwest.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, David Leslie

This study investigates the synoptic and mesoscale environments associated with severe local storms (SELS) in the heart of the American Midwest. This region includes west-central Illinois, most of Indiana, the extreme western counties of Ohio, and a small part of northeastern Kentucky. The primary objectives of this study are to determine the surface and middle-tropospheric synoptic circulation patterns and thermodynamic and kinematic environments associated with SELS event types (tornadoes, hail, severe straight -line winds), and to assess the degree to which the synoptic circulation patterns and meso-beta scale kinematic and thermodynamic climatology of the Midwest differ from that of the Great Plains. A secondary objective is to investigate the possible role that land-surface atmosphere interactions play in the spatial distribution of SELS. A new subjective synoptic typing scheme is developed and applied to determine the synoptic-scale circulation patterns associated with the occurrence of SELS event types. This scheme is based on a combination of surface and middle -tropospheric patterns. Thermodynamic and kinematic parameters are analyzed to determine meso-scale environments favorable for the development of SELS. Results indicate that key synoptic-scale circulation patterns, and specific ranges of thermodynamic and kinematic parameters are related to specific SELS event types. These circulation types and ranges of thermodynamic and kinematic parameters may be used to help improve the medium-range forecasting of severe local storms. Results of the secondary objective reveal that the spatial distribution of SELS events is clustered within the study region, and most occur under a negative climate division-level soil moisture gradient; that is, a drier upwind division than the division in which the event occurs. Moreover, the spatial distribution of SELS events is compared against a map of soil types and vegetation. The resulting distribution depicts a visual correlation between the primary soil and vegetative boundaries and clusters of SELS. This supports the likely role of meso-scale land-surface-atmosphere interactions in severe weather development for humid lowlands of the Midwest United States.

A Coastal Bay Summer Breeze Study, Part 1: Results of the Quiberon 2006 Experimental Campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mestayer, Patrice G.; Calmet, Isabelle; Herlédant, Olivier; Barré, Sophie; Piquet, Thibaud; Rosant, Jean-Michel

2018-04-01

The Quiberon 2006 experiment was launched to document the onset and development of land and sea breezes over a semi-circular coastal bay propitious to inshore sailing competitions. The measurements were taken during the 2 weeks of 16-28 June 2006. Micrometeorological variables were recorded at three shore sites around the bay using turbulence sensors on 10-30-m high masts, on four instrumented catamarans at selected sites within the bay, and at a fourth shore site with a Sodar. Synoptic data and local measurements are analyzed here from the point of view of both micrometeorologists and competition skippers, testing in particular the empirical rules of breeze veering and backing according to the wind direction with respect to the coastline orientation at the mesoscale (the quadrant theory). Our analysis focuses on the patterns of lower-altitude wind direction and speed around the bay and over the water basin, and the temporal variations during the periods of the breeze onset, establishment and thermal reinforcement. In offshore synoptic-flow conditions (quadrants 1 and 2), the clockwise rotation of the surface flow had a very large amplitude, reaching up to 360°. The breeze strength was negatively correlated to that of the synoptic wind speed. In conditions of onshore synoptic flow from the west (quadrant 3) at an angle to the mainland coast but perpendicular to the Quiberon peninsula, the rotation of the flow was backwards in the early morning and clockwise during the day with a moderate amplitude (40°-50°) around the synoptic wind direction. As the surface wind speed was much larger than the synoptic wind speed, such a case we have designated as a "synoptic breeze". The breeze onset was shown to fail several times under the influence of weak non-thermal events, e.g., the passage of an occluded front or clouds or an excess of convection. Finally, several local-scale influences of the complex coastal shape appeared in our measurements, e.g., wind fanning in the lee of the isthmus and airflow skirting around the peninsula forehand.

Tornado activity at SRP during 1976

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pepper, D.W.; Schubert, J.F.

1978-07-01

Tracks of three small tornadoes were confirmed on the site of the Savannah River Plant during 1976. Only minor damage to buildings and vehicles was experienced. The tornadoes were rated F1 on the Fujita-Pearson scale. Synoptic weather conditions from the National Weather Service and from the SRP seven-tower data system were recorded.

Thunderstorm incidence in southeastern Brazil estimated from different data sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinto, O., Jr.; Naccarato, K. P.; Pinto, I. R. C. A.

2013-07-01

This paper describes a comparative analysis of the thunderstorm incidence in southeastern Brazil obtained from thunderstorm days observed at two different epochs (from 1910 to 1951 and from 1971 to 1984) and from lightning data provided by the Brazilian lightning location system RINDAT (from 1999 to 2006) and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite (from 1998 to 2010). The results are interpreted in terms of the main synoptic patterns associated with thunderstorm activity in this region, indicating that the prevailing synoptic pattern associated with thunderstorm activity is the occurrence of frontal systems and their modulation by the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and topography. Evidence of urban effects is also found. The results are also discussed in the context of practical applications involving their use in the Brazilian lightning protection standards, suggesting that the present version of the Brazilian standards should be revised incorporating RINDAT and LIS data. Finally, the results are important to improve our knowledge about the limitations of the different techniques used to record the thunderstorm activity and support future climatic studies.

Extinction coefficients from lidar observations in ice clouds compared to in-situ measurements from the Cloud Integrating Nephelometer during CRYSTAL-FACE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noel, Vincent; Winker, D. M.; Garrett, T. J.; McGill, M.

2005-01-01

This paper presents a comparison of volume extinction coefficients in tropical ice clouds retrieved from two instruments : the 532-nm Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL), and the in-situ probe Cloud Integrating Nephelometer (CIN). Both instruments were mounted on airborne platforms during the CRYSTAL-FACE campaign and took measurements in ice clouds up to 17km. Coincident observations from three cloud cases are compared : one synoptically-generated cirrus cloud of low optical depth, and two ice clouds located on top of convective systems. Emphasis is put on the vertical variability of the extinction coefficient. Results show small differences on small spatial scales (approx. 100m) in retrievals from both instruments. Lidar retrievals also show higher extinction coefficients in the synoptic cirrus case, while the opposite tendency is observed in convective cloud systems. These differences are generally variations around the average profile given by the CPL though, and general trends on larger spatial scales are usually well reproduced. A good agreement exists between the two instruments, with an average difference of less than 16% on optical depth retrievals.

Tropospheric characteristics over sea ice during N-ICE2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kayser, Markus; Maturilli, Marion; Graham, Robert; Hudson, Stephen; Cohen, Lana; Rinke, Annette; Kim, Joo-Hong; Park, Sang-Jong; Moon, Woosok; Granskog, Mats

2017-04-01

Over recent years, the Arctic Ocean region has shifted towards a younger and thinner sea-ice regime. The Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition was designed to investigate the atmosphere-snow-ice-ocean interactions in this new ice regime north of Svalbard. Here we analyze upper-air measurements made by radiosondes launched twice daily together with surface meteorology observations during N-ICE2015 from January to June 2015. We study the multiple cyclonic events observed during N-ICE2015 with respect to changes in the vertical thermodynamic structure, sudden increases in moisture content and temperature, temperature inversions and boundary layer dynamics. The influence of synoptic cyclones is strongest under polar night conditions, when radiative cooling is most effective and the moisture content is low. We find that transitions between the radiatively clear and opaque state are the largest drivers of changes to temperature inversion and stability characteristics in the boundary layer during winter. In spring radiative fluxes warm the surface leading to lifted temperature inversions and a statically unstable boundary layer. The unique N-ICE2015 dataset is used for case studies investigating changes in the vertical structure of the atmosphere under varying synoptic conditions. The goal is to deepen our understanding of synoptic interactions within the Arctic climate system, to improve model performance, as well as to identify gaps in instrumentation, which precludes further investigations.

The Climatology of Low-Level Jet in Beijing and Guangzhou, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Yucong; Guo, Jianping; Liu, Shuhua; Wei, Wei; Zhang, Gen; Lin, Yanluan; Zhai, Panmao

2018-03-01

The important roles of low-level jet (LLJ) in transport of heat, moisture, and pollutants have long been recognized. However, partly due to the lack of long-term observations, the characteristics of LLJs in Beijing and Guangzhou have not been well understood. Using long-term wind profiler observations and numerical simulations, the basic climatological characteristics of LLJ in Beijing and Guangzhou were documented, and their relationships with large- and local-scale forcings were investigated. The occurrence frequencies of LLJ in both megacities approximately exhibit a bimodal distribution during an annual cycle. In terms of the seasonality, the LLJs in Beijing occur more often in spring and winter, and those in Guangzhou appear more frequently from October to December and from February to April. Pronounced diurnal variations of LLJ are found in Beijing, where most LLJs occurred during the nighttime, and the diurnal variations of LLJ in Guangzhou are less prominent. Favorable synoptic conditions for LLJ formations in Beijing are those having a southwest-northeast or southeast-northwest pressure gradient across Beijing. Dominant synoptic patterns associated with LLJs in Guangzhou are those having a low-pressure or high-pressure system to the northwest. Overall, the LLJs are primarily induced by synoptic forcings and modulated by the diurnal evolution of planetary boundary layer. The key findings from this study provide us a better understanding of the LLJs in these highly populated regions.

Application of satellite data to tropic/subtropic moisture coupling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcguirk, J. P.; Thompson, A. H.

1985-01-01

The objective is to develop analysis tools for use of satellite data to interpret synoptic-scale systems in data-void regions. Interim goals are to: (1) quantify the synoptic information content of satellite data; and (2) utilize these data in the diagnosis of moisture bursts in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Researchers developed and implemented a statistical procedure for using TIROS N microwave data to infer infrared channel data for overcast conditions; they used the same procedure for deducing full TIROS N channel radiance profiles from NOAA 5 VTPR channel data over regions where the TIROS N data are missing. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of twice-daily channel radiance fields over the tropical eastern Pacific was completed. The vertically oriented eigenfunctions were interpreted in terms of typical meteorological events. The horizontal distribution of the eigenfunction amplitudes relates these meteorological signals to moisture bursts. A pair of moisture burst climatologies is complete: one of four years using infrared imagery (including the highly anomalous 1982 to 83 cold season); the other implementing 850 to 200 mb wind analyses in conjunction with GOES imagery. A number of different evaluations of the synoptic evolution of moisture fields (enhanced infrared imagery, moisture channel data, FGGE humidity analysis, and in situ station and sounding observations) are compared. All have limitations; all can be utilized together; all together are still less than adequate in the tropical Pacific.

Wintertime Boundary Layer Structure in the Grand Canyon.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whiteman, C. David; Zhong, Shiyuan; Bian, Xindi

1999-08-01

Wintertime temperature profiles in the Grand Canyon exhibit a neutral to isothermal stratification during both daytime and nighttime, with only rare instances of actual temperature inversions. The canyon warms during daytime and cools during nighttime more or less uniformly through the canyon's entire depth. This weak stability and temperature structure evolution differ from other Rocky Mountain valleys, which develop strong nocturnal inversions and exhibit convective and stable boundary layers that grow upward from the valley floor. Mechanisms that may be responsible for the different behavior of the Grand Canyon are discussed, including the possibility that the canyon atmosphere is frequently mixed to near-neutral stratification when cold air drains into the top of the canyon from the nearby snow-covered Kaibab Plateau. Another feature of canyon temperature profiles is the sharp inversions that often form near the canyon rims. These are generally produced when warm air is advected over the canyon in advance of passing synoptic-scale ridges.Wintertime winds in the main canyon are not classical diurnal along-valley wind systems. Rather, they are driven along the canyon axis by the horizontal synoptic-scale pressure gradient that is superimposed along the canyon's axis by passing synoptic-scale weather disturbances. They may thus bring winds into the canyon from either end at any time of day.The implications of the observed canyon boundary layer structure for air pollution dispersion are discussed.

Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

2005-01-01

This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

Tropical disturbances in relation to general circulation modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estoque, M. A.

1982-01-01

The initial results of an evaluation of the performance of the Goddard Laboratory of Atmospheric Simulation general circulation model depicting the tropical atmosphere during the summer are presented. Because the results show the existence of tropical wave disturbances throughout the tropics, the characteristics of synoptic disturbances over Africa were studied and a synoptic case study of a selected disturbance in this area was conducted. It is shown that the model is able to reproduce wave type synoptic disturbances in the tropics. The findings show that, in one of the summers simulated, the disturbances are predominantly closed vortices; in another summer, the predominant disturbances are open waves.

Solar flare predictions and warnings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, K. P., III; Mayfield, E. B.

1973-01-01

The real-time solar monitoring information supplied to support SPARCS-equipped rocket launches, the routine collection and analysis of 3.3-mm solar radio maps, short-term flare forecasts based on these maps, longer-term forecasts based on the recurrence of active regions, and results of the synoptic study of solar active regions at 3.3-mm wavelength are presented. Forecasted flares in the 24-hour forecasts were 81% accurate, and those in the 28-day forecasts were 97% accurate. Synoptic radio maps at 3.3-mm wavelength are presented for twenty-three solar rotations in 1967 and 1968, as well as synoptic flare charts for the same period.

Meteorological conditions in a thinner Arctic sea ice regime from winter to summer during the Norwegian Young Sea Ice expedition (N-ICE2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Lana; Hudson, Stephen R.; Walden, Von P.; Graham, Robert M.; Granskog, Mats A.

2017-07-01

Atmospheric measurements were made over Arctic sea ice north of Svalbard from winter to early summer (January-June) 2015 during the Norwegian Young Sea Ice (N-ICE2015) expedition. These measurements, which are available publicly, represent a comprehensive meteorological data set covering the seasonal transition in the Arctic Basin over the new, thinner sea ice regime. Winter was characterized by a succession of storms that produced short-lived (less than 48 h) temperature increases of 20 to 30 K at the surface. These storms were driven by the hemispheric scale circulation pattern with a large meridional component of the polar jet stream steering North Atlantic storms into the high Arctic. Nonstorm periods during winter were characterized by strong surface temperature inversions due to strong radiative cooling ("radiatively clear state"). The strength and depth of these inversions were similar to those during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) campaign. In contrast, atmospheric profiles during the "opaquely cloudy state" were different to those from SHEBA due to differences in the synoptic conditions and location within the ice pack. Storm events observed during spring/summer were the result of synoptic systems located in the Barents Sea and the Arctic Basin rather than passing directly over N-ICE2015. These synoptic systems were driven by a large-scale circulation pattern typical of recent years, with an Arctic Dipole pattern developing during June. Surface temperatures became near-constant 0°C on 1 June marking the beginning of summer. Atmospheric profiles during the spring and early summer show persistent lifted temperature and moisture inversions that are indicative of clouds and cloud processes.

Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars’ Southern Extratropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

2017-10-01

Between late fall and early spring, Mars’ middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars Southern Extratropics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

2017-01-01

Between late fall and early spring, Mars' middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Meteorological conditions for the triggering of landslides in Asturias (NW Spain). A preliminary analysis of synoptic patterns.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valenzuela, Pablo; Iglesias, Miguel; José Domínguez-Cuesta, María; Mora García, Manuel Antonio

2017-04-01

Asturias is one of the most landslide prone areas in the NW of Spain, where those phenomena cause every year large economic loses and sometimes personal injuries or fatalities. Most of landslides take place during intense rainfall events, which point out precipitation as the main triggering factor. Regional climate is characterized by average annual precipitation and temperature of 960 mm and 13.3°C respectively. Rainfall distribution throughout the year allows the definition of a humid period between October and May, characterized by the succession of frontal systems, and a considerable dry period between June and September, when heavy short storm episodes are usual. BAPA landslide database (http://geol.uniovi.es/BAPA) gathers more than 500 landslide records located with high temporal reliability for eight hydrological years between October 2008 and September 2016. Eight periods with a high concentration of landslides and significant precipitation records have been selected for the study within this time span. Meteorological conditions which took place during each period have been characterized by using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the EEUU (NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis 1) through the free software Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS). Seven parameters have been used to characterize each synoptic situation: (i) 500 hPa temperature, (ii) 500 hPa geopotential height, (iii) 850 hPa temperature, (iv) 850 hPa geopotential height, (v) 925hPa wind, (vi) specific humidity, and (vii) sea level pressure. The final goal is to establish a conceptual model of the most frequent synoptic meteorological patterns which generate rainfall-triggered landslide events in Asturias during the humid and dry periods.

OLYMPEX Data Workshop: GPM View

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petersen, W.

2017-01-01

OLYMPEX Primary Objectives: Datasets to enable: (1) Direct validation over complex terrain at multiple scales, liquid and frozen precip types, (a) Do we capture terrain and synoptic regime transitions, orographic enhancements/structure, full range of precipitation intensity (e.g., very light to heavy) and types, spatial variability? (b) How well can we estimate space/time-accumulated precipitation over terrain (liquid + frozen)? (2) Physical validation of algorithms in mid-latitude cold season frontal systems over ocean and complex terrain, (a) What are the column properties of frozen, melting, liquid hydrometeors-their relative contributions to estimated surface precipitation, transition under the influence of terrain gradients, and systematic variability as a function of synoptic regime? (3) Integrated hydrologic validation in complex terrain, (a) Can satellite estimates be combined with modeling over complex topography to drive improved products (assimilation, downscaling) [Level IV products] (b) What are capabilities and limitations for use of satellite-based precipitation estimates in stream/river flow forecasting?

Near real time water quality monitoring of Chivero and Manyame lakes of Zimbabwe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muchini, Ronald; Gumindoga, Webster; Togarepi, Sydney; Pinias Masarira, Tarirai; Dube, Timothy

2018-05-01

Zimbabwe's water resources are under pressure from both point and non-point sources of pollution hence the need for regular and synoptic assessment. In-situ and laboratory based methods of water quality monitoring are point based and do not provide a synoptic coverage of the lakes. This paper presents novel methods for retrieving water quality parameters in Chivero and Manyame lakes, Zimbabwe, from remotely sensed imagery. Remotely sensed derived water quality parameters are further validated using in-situ data. It also presents an application for automated retrieval of those parameters developed in VB6, as well as a web portal for disseminating the water quality information to relevant stakeholders. The web portal is developed, using Geoserver, open layers and HTML. Results show the spatial variation of water quality and an automated remote sensing and GIS system with a web front end to disseminate water quality information.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: LMC NIR Synoptic Survey. II. Wesenheit relations (Bhardwaj+, 2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhardwaj, A.; Kanbur, S. M.; Macri, L. M.; Singh, H. P.; Ngeow, C.-C.; Wagner-Kaiser, R.; Sarajedini, A.

2018-03-01

We make use of NIR mean magnitudes for 775 fundamental-mode and 474 first-overtone Cepheids in the LMC from Macri et al. 2015, J/AJ/149/117 (Paper I). These magnitudes are based on observations from a synoptic survey (average of 16 epochs) of the central region of the LMC using the CPAPIR camera at the Cerro Tololo Interamerican Observatory 1.5-m telescope between 2006 and 2007. Most of these Cepheid variables were previously studied in the optical V and I bands by the third phase of the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment (OGLE-III) survey (Soszynski et al. 2008, J/AcA/58/163; Ulaczyk et al. 2013, J/AcA/63/159). The V and I band mean magnitudes are also compiled in Paper I. The calibration into the 2MASS photometric system, extinction corrections, and the adopted reddening law are discussed in detail in Paper I. (4 data files).

SYNOPTIC ASSESSMENT OF WETLAND FUNCTION: A PLANNING TOOL FOR PROTECTION OF WETLAND SPECIES DIVERSITY

EPA Science Inventory

We present a synoptic assessment intended to maximize the benefits to wetland species biodiversity gained through Clean Water Act regulatory efforts within 225 sub-basins in Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 7), USA. Our assessment...

Program Monitoring: Problems and Cases.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lundin, Edward; Welty, Gordon

Designed as the major component of a comprehensive model of educational management, a behavioral model of decision making is presented that approximates the synoptic model of neoclassical economic theory. The synoptic model defines all possible alternatives and provides a basis for choosing that alternative which maximizes expected utility. The…

A Survey of Synoptic Waves over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Yuan-Ming; Thorncroft, Chris D.; Kiladis, George N.

2017-04-01

Motivated by the pronounced wave-to-wave variability in African easterly wave (AEW) circulation, the three-dimensional structure of synoptic waves over West Africa is revisited with an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) approach to isolate the dominant wave pattern. In this talk we present results of EOF analyses conducted with brightness temperature (Tb) derived from satellite observation and meridional wind at multiple levels from reanalysis data to examine the characteristics and variability of synoptic waves. The structure of waves is extracted by projecting the wind fields and Tb onto the principle components associated with EOF patterns of appropriately filtered parameters. The Tb EOF shows a confined AEW circulation centered around 7.5°N and a distinct evolution of convection within the wave in line with previous research. However, in striking contrast to the confined flow pattern in the Tb EOF, the EOF of 700-hPa meridional wind is distinguished by a meridionally broad AEW circulation. While the peak in circulation is centered around 10°N, there is marked cross-equatorial flow that is associated with an antisymmetric geopotential signature across the equator. This suggests the presence of a mixed Rossby-gravity wave (MRG) structure consistent with Matsuno's shallow water theory. Granted that the vast majority of studies on MRGs focus on the central and western Pacific region, this "hybrid" between AEWs and MRGs over West Africa and Atlantic sector has received little attention and more work regarding the nature and causes of its wave structure and behavior is needed. In addition, an upper-level synoptic wave is captured by EOFs of 200-hPa meridional wind. The kinematic fields reveal a continental-scale wave straddling the equator that resembles an MRG. This upper-level MRG appears to develop in situ over the Horn of Africa and intensifies as it moves across the continent. The associated lower-level structure shows an AEW-like circulation but with a larger spatial extent. This finding motivates the need for more in-depth investigations of synoptic wave variability over the region including an assessment of the direction of causality between the upper-level MRG and the lower-level AEW. This study highlights the various synoptic wave structures over West Africa and their interaction with AEWs. The results suggest the variability of AEW activity could be modulated by, in addition to the large-scale environment, other synoptic waves in the region. We will pursue the EOF approach to shed light on the characteristics and causes of the variability in synoptic wave activity over West Africa.

Synoptic analysis of heat waves in the Barcelona city (Catalonia, Spain) during 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amaro, Jéssica; Peña, Juan Carlos; Miró, Josep Ramon; Aran, Montserrat

2017-04-01

The impact of extremely warm episodes on health has been analysed by a large number of studies conducted in different countries and cities, showing that heat waves events (HWE) can cause an abrupt increase in mortality. A HWE was defined as a 7-day sequence following a key-day labelled by the 95th percentile of Barcelona daily mortality (see Peña et al., 2015). The aim of this study is to identify synoptic patterns associated to HWE in Barcelona over the 21st century and evaluate the impact and possible mitigations. To achieve it, a multivariate analysis (MVA) integrating different atmospheric levels (sea level pressure, temperature at 850 hPa and geopotential at 500 hPa) was undertaken. The observed data used for this study was the 20th Century Reanalysis. The Max Planck Institute Earth system model was used to study two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) during the 21st century. The model was calibrated given the variability in the climate scenario, using the Quantile-Quantile mapping transformation (Q-Q). The MVA applied to the observed period (1990-2015) distinguish three main synoptic patterns: two dynamic configurations produced by southern fluxes related to an Atlantic low, associated with HWE recorded in southern Europe, and a third pattern identified by a stagnation situation related to persistent anticyclone periods. These patterns were also detected in the control simulated period (1961-2005) after the Q-Q calibration, preserving, therefore, the climatic variability: the number of HWE during the warm period (1990-2005) is twice more than during the cold period (1976-1989) due to an intensification of the warm masses. In the RCP 4.5 scenario (2006-2100 period) a positive and significant trend is shown in synoptic patterns which provoke HWE in Barcelona, especially during August; in the RCP 8.5 scenario there is no significant trend, but the intensification of the warm masses is higher.

SYNOPTIC ASSESSMENT OF WETLAND FUNCTION: A PLANNING TOOL FOR PROTECTION OF WETLAND SPECIES BIODIVERSITY

EPA Science Inventory

We present a synoptic assessment intended to maximize the benefits to wetland species biodiversity gained through Clean Water Act regulatory efforts within 225 sub-basins in Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas (U.S. EPA, Region 7) USA. Our assessment provides a method for identif...

SYNOPTIC ASSESSMENT OF WETLAND FUNCTION: A PLANNING TOOL FOR PROTECTION OF WETLAND SPECIES BIODIVERSITY

EPA Science Inventory

We present a synoptic assessment intended to maximize the benefits to wetland species biodiversity gained through Clean Water Act regulatory efforts within 225 sub-basins in Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas (U.S. EPA, Region 7), USA. Our assessment provides a method for identi...

An HF and lower VHF spectrum assessment system exploiting instantaneously wideband capture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, Rod I.; Singh, Malkiat; Earl, Fred

2017-09-01

We report on a spectral environment evaluation and recording (SEER) system, for instantaneously wideband spectral capture and characterization in the HF and lower VHF band, utilizing a direct digital receiver coupled to a data recorder. The system is designed to contend with a wide variety of electromagnetic environments and to provide accurately calibrated spectral characterization and display from very short (ms) to synoptic scales. The system incorporates a novel RF front end involving automated gain and equalization filter selection which provides an analogue frequency-dependent gain characteristic that mitigates the high dynamic range found across the HF and lower VHF spectrum. The system accurately calibrates its own internal noise and automatically subtracts this from low variance, external spectral estimates, further extending the dynamic range over which robust characterization is possible. Laboratory and field experiments demonstrate that the implementation of these concepts has been effective. Sensitivity to varying antenna load impedance of the internal noise reduction process has been examined. Examples of software algorithms to provide extraction and visualization of spectral behavior over narrowband, wideband, short, and synoptic scales are provided. Application in HF noise spectral density monitoring, spectral signal strength assessment, and electromagnetic interference detection is possible with examples provided. The instantaneously full bandwidth collection provides some innovative applications, and this is demonstrated by the collection of discrete lightning emissions, which form fast ionograms called "flashagrams" in power-delay-frequency plots.

SELECTION OF BURST-LIKE TRANSIENTS AND STOCHASTIC VARIABLES USING MULTI-BAND IMAGE DIFFERENCING IN THE PAN-STARRS1 MEDIUM-DEEP SURVEY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kumar, S.; Gezari, S.; Heinis, S.

2015-03-20

We present a novel method for the light-curve characterization of Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey (PS1 MDS) extragalactic sources into stochastic variables (SVs) and burst-like (BL) transients, using multi-band image-differencing time-series data. We select detections in difference images associated with galaxy hosts using a star/galaxy catalog extracted from the deep PS1 MDS stacked images, and adopt a maximum a posteriori formulation to model their difference-flux time-series in four Pan-STARRS1 photometric bands g {sub P1}, r {sub P1}, i {sub P1}, and z {sub P1}. We use three deterministic light-curve models to fit BL transients; a Gaussian, a Gamma distribution, and anmore » analytic supernova (SN) model, and one stochastic light-curve model, the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, in order to fit variability that is characteristic of active galactic nuclei (AGNs). We assess the quality of fit of the models band-wise and source-wise, using their estimated leave-out-one cross-validation likelihoods and corrected Akaike information criteria. We then apply a K-means clustering algorithm on these statistics, to determine the source classification in each band. The final source classification is derived as a combination of the individual filter classifications, resulting in two measures of classification quality, from the averages across the photometric filters of (1) the classifications determined from the closest K-means cluster centers, and (2) the square distances from the clustering centers in the K-means clustering spaces. For a verification set of AGNs and SNe, we show that SV and BL occupy distinct regions in the plane constituted by these measures. We use our clustering method to characterize 4361 extragalactic image difference detected sources, in the first 2.5 yr of the PS1 MDS, into 1529 BL, and 2262 SV, with a purity of 95.00% for AGNs, and 90.97% for SN based on our verification sets. We combine our light-curve classifications with their nuclear or off-nuclear host galaxy offsets, to define a robust photometric sample of 1233 AGNs and 812 SNe. With these two samples, we characterize their variability and host galaxy properties, and identify simple photometric priors that would enable their real-time identification in future wide-field synoptic surveys.« less

Large Scale Water Vapor Sources Relative to the October 2000 Piedmont Flood

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turato, Barbara; Reale, Oreste; Siccardi, Franco

2003-01-01

Very intense mesoscale or synoptic-scale rainfall events can occasionally be observed in the Mediterranean region without any deep cyclone developing over the areas affected by precipitation. In these perplexing cases the synoptic situation can superficially look similar to cases in which very little precipitation occurs. These situations could possibly baffle the operational weather forecasters. In this article, the major precipitation event that affected Piedmont (Italy) between 13 and 16 October 2000 is investigated. This is one of the cases in which no intense cyclone was observed within the Mediterranean region at any time, only a moderate system was present, and yet exceptional rainfall and flooding occurred. The emphasis of this study is on the moisture origin and transport. Moisture and energy balances are computed on different space- and time-scales, revealing that precipitation exceeds evaporation over an area inclusive of Piedmont and the northwestern Mediterranean region, on a time-scale encompassing the event and about two weeks preceding it. This is suggestive of an important moisture contribution originating from outside the region. A synoptic and dynamic analysis is then performed to outline the potential mechanisms that could have contributed to the large-scale moisture transport. The central part of the work uses a quasi-isentropic water-vapor back trajectory technique. The moisture sources obtained by this technique are compared with the results of the balances and with the synoptic situation, to unveil possible dynamic mechanisms and physical processes involved. It is found that moisture sources on a variety of atmospheric scales contribute to this event. First, an important contribution is caused by the extratropical remnants of former tropical storm Leslie. The large-scale environment related to this system allows a significant amount of moisture to be carried towards Europe. This happens on a time- scale of about 5-15 days preceding the Piedmont event. Second, water-vapor intrusions from the African Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and evaporation from the eastern Atlantic contribute on the 2-5 day time-scale. The large-scale moist dynamics appears therefore to be one important factor enabling a moderate Mediterranean cyclone to produce heavy precipitation. Finally, local evaporation from the Mediterranean, water-vapor recycling, and orographically-induced low-level convergence enhance and concentrate the moisture over the area where heavy precipitation occurs. This happens on a 12-72 hour time-scale.

On the multiday haze in the Asian continental outflow: the important role of synoptic conditions combined with regional and local sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Jihoon; Kim, Jin Young; Youn, Daeok; Lee, Ji Yi; Kim, Hwajin; Lim, Yong Bin; Kim, Yumi; Cher Jin, Hyoun

2017-08-01

The air quality of the megacities in populated and industrialized regions like East Asia is affected by both local and regional emission sources. The combined effect of regional transport and local emissions on multiday haze was investigated through a synthetic analysis of PM2. 5 sampled at both an urban site in Seoul, South Korea and an upwind background site on Deokjeok Island over the Yellow Sea during a severe multiday haze episode in late February 2014. Inorganic components and carbonaceous species of daily PM2. 5 samples were measured, and gaseous pollutants, local meteorological factors, and synoptic meteorological conditions were also determined. A dominance of fine-mode particles (PM2. 5 / PM10 ˜ 0.8), a large secondary inorganic fraction (76 %), high OC / EC (> 7), and highly oxidized aerosols (oxygen-to-carbon ratio of ˜ 0.6 and organic-mass-to-carbon ratio of ˜ 1.9) under relatively warm, humid, and stagnant conditions characterize the multiday haze episode in Seoul; however, the early and late stages of the episode show different chemical compositions of PM2. 5. High concentrations of sulfate in both Seoul and the upwind background in the early stage suggest a significant regional influence on the onset of the multiday haze. At the same time, high concentrations of nitrate and organic compounds in Seoul, which are local and highly correlated with meteorological factors, suggest the contribution of local emissions and secondary formation under stagnant meteorological conditions to the haze. A slow eastward-moving high-pressure system from southern China to the East China Sea induces the regional transport of aerosols and potential gaseous precursors for secondary aerosols from the North China Plain in the early stage but provides stagnant conditions conducive to the accumulation and the local formation of aerosols in the late stage. A blocking ridge over Alaska that developed during the episode hinders the zonal propagation of synoptic-scale systems and extends the haze period to several days. This study provides chemical insights into haze development sequentially by regional transport and local sources, and shows that the synoptic condition plays an important role in the dynamical evolution of long-lasting haze in the Asian continental outflow region.

A biomass representative land cover classification for the Democratic Republic of Congo derived from the Forets D'Afrique Central Evaluee par Teledetection (FACET) data set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molinario, G.; Hansen, M.; Potapov, P.; Altstatt, A. L.; Justice, C. O.

2012-12-01

The FACET forest cover and forest cover loss 2000-2005-2010 data set has been produced by South Dakota State University, the University of Maryland and the Kinshasa-based Observatoire Satellital des Forets D'Afrique Central (OSFAC) with funding from the USAID Central African Regional Program for the Environment (CARPE). The product is now available or being finalized for the DRC, the ROC and Gabon with plans to complete all Congo Basin countries. While FACET provides unprecedented synoptic detail in the extent of Congo Basin forest and the forest cover loss, additional information is required to stratify land cover into types indicative of biomass content. Analysis of the FACET patterns of deforestation, more detailed remote sensing analysis of biophysical attributes within the FACET land cover classes and GIS-derived classes of degradation obtained through variable distance buffers based on relevant literature and ground truth data are combined with the existing FACET classes to produce a ranking of land cover from low biomass to high biomass for the Democratic Republic of Congo. The resulting classification can be used in all Reduced Emissions from Degradation and Deforestation (REDD) pre-inventory phases when baseline forest cover needs to be known and the location and amount of forest biomass inventory plots needs to be designed. FACET cover loss classes were kept in the classification and can provide the Monitoring, Reporting and Verification tools needed for REDD projects. The project will be demonstrated for the Maringa Lopori Wamba Landscape of the DRC where this work was funded by the African Wildlife Foundation to support the design of a REDD pilot project.

SkyDiscovery: Humans and Machines Working Together

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donalek, Ciro; Fang, K.; Drake, A. J.; Djorgovski, S. G.; Graham, M. J.; Mahabal, A.; Williams, R.

2011-01-01

Synoptic sky surveys are now discovering tens to hundreds of transient events every clear night, and that data rate is expected to increase dramatically as we move towards the LSST. A key problem is classification of transients, which determines their scientific interest and possible follow-up. Some of the relevant information is contextual, and easily recognizable by humans looking at images, but it is very hard to encode in the data pipelines. Crowdsourcing (aka Citizen Science) provides one possible way to gather such information. SkyDiscovery.org is a website that allows experts and citizen science enthusiasts to work together and share information in a collaborative scientific discovery environment. Currently there are two projects running on the website. In the Event Classification project users help finding candidate transients through a series of questions related to the images shown. Event classification depends very much form the contextual information and humans are remarkably effective at recognizing noise in incomplete heterogeneous data and figuring out which contextual information is important. In the SNHunt project users are requested to look for new objects appearing on images of galaxies taken by the Catalina Real-time Transient Survey, in order to find all the supernovae occurring in nearby bright galaxies. Images are served alongside with other tools that can help the discovery. A multi level approach allows the complexity of the interface to be tailored to the expertise level of the user. An entry level user can just review images and validate events as being real, while a more advanced user would be able to interact with the data associated to an event. The data gathered will not be only analyzed and used directly for some specific science project, but also to train well-defined algorithms to be used in automating such data analysis in the future.

Variable classification in the LSST era: exploring a model for quasi-periodic light curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zinn, J. C.; Kochanek, C. S.; Kozłowski, S.; Udalski, A.; Szymański, M. K.; Soszyński, I.; Wyrzykowski, Ł.; Ulaczyk, K.; Poleski, R.; Pietrukowicz, P.; Skowron, J.; Mróz, P.; Pawlak, M.

2017-06-01

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) is expected to yield ˜107 light curves over the course of its mission, which will require a concerted effort in automated classification. Stochastic processes provide one means of quantitatively describing variability with the potential advantage over simple light-curve statistics that the parameters may be physically meaningful. Here, we survey a large sample of periodic, quasi-periodic and stochastic Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment-III variables using the damped random walk (DRW; CARMA(1,0)) and quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO; CARMA(2,1)) stochastic process models. The QPO model is described by an amplitude, a period and a coherence time-scale, while the DRW has only an amplitude and a time-scale. We find that the periodic and quasi-periodic stellar variables are generally better described by a QPO than a DRW, while quasars are better described by the DRW model. There are ambiguities in interpreting the QPO coherence time due to non-sinusoidal light-curve shapes, signal-to-noise ratio, error mischaracterizations and cadence. Higher order implementations of the QPO model that better capture light-curve shapes are necessary for the coherence time to have its implied physical meaning. Independent of physical meaning, the extra parameter of the QPO model successfully distinguishes most of the classes of periodic and quasi-periodic variables we consider.

Classification and Feature Selection Algorithms for Modeling Ice Storm Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swaminathan, R.; Sridharan, M.; Hayhoe, K.; Dobbie, G.

2015-12-01

Ice storms account for billions of dollars of winter storm loss across the continental US and Canada. In the future, increasing concentration of human populations in areas vulnerable to ice storms such as the northeastern US will only exacerbate the impacts of these extreme events on infrastructure and society. Quantifying the potential impacts of global climate change on ice storm prevalence and frequency is challenging, as ice storm climatology is driven by complex and incompletely defined atmospheric processes, processes that are in turn influenced by a changing climate. This makes the underlying atmospheric and computational modeling of ice storm climatology a formidable task. We propose a novel computational framework that uses sophisticated stochastic classification and feature selection algorithms to model ice storm climatology and quantify storm occurrences from both reanalysis and global climate model outputs. The framework is based on an objective identification of ice storm events by key variables derived from vertical profiles of temperature, humidity and geopotential height. Historical ice storm records are used to identify days with synoptic-scale upper air and surface conditions associated with ice storms. Evaluation using NARR reanalysis and historical ice storm records corresponding to the northeastern US demonstrates that an objective computational model with standard performance measures, with a relatively high degree of accuracy, identify ice storm events based on upper-air circulation patterns and provide insights into the relationships between key climate variables associated with ice storms.

Investigation of mesoscale meteorological phenomena as observed by geostationary satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brundidge, K. C.

1982-01-01

Satellite imagery plus conventional synoptic observations were used to examine three mesoscale systems recently observed by the GOES-EAST satellite. The three systems are an arc cloud complex (ACC), mountain lee wave clouds and cloud streets parallel to the wind shear. Possible gravity-wave activity is apparent in all three cases. Of particular interest is the ACC because of its ability to interact with other mesoscale phenomena to produce or enhance convection.

Storm Warnings on Lake Balaton,

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-04-06

times is called the storm duration. An independent wind period, or an independent storm, is that wind caused by a given synoptic system . However, within...mined for a long time ) there is no real physical basis from which to explain the existance of any characteristic differences. From r4 . the results... time , an essentially dynamic change takes place within the system , or we encounter a dull and slow barocline effect. Now in all these cases, an

Doing It for Themselves: Students Creating a High Quality Peer-Learning Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Galloway, Kyle W.; Burns, Simon

2015-01-01

To support our students during their study and exam preparation we have developed a novel synoptic revision exercise using the online PeerWise system. Academic staff involvement was passive after introducing the assignment to the cohort via scaffolding activities, thus generating an entirely student-led peer-learning environment for the task.…

Application of satellite data to tropic-subtropic moisture coupling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, Aylmer H.; Mcguirk, James P.

1987-01-01

Common tropical synoptic events, called moisture bursts, have been defined in terms of their appearance in infrared satellite imagery. Their synoptic and climatological behavior over the tropical North Pacific Ocean is described using data from four cool seasons, including the 1982 to 1983 El Nino winter and the January and May of 1979.

REGIONAL, BASIN, AND LOCAL FACTORS INFLUENCING THE USE OF SYNOPTIC SURVEY DATA TO ASSESS ANTHROPOGENIC CHANGES IN STREAMBED STABILITY AND FINE SEDIMENT

EPA Science Inventory

To evaluate anthropogenic changes in stream bed stability or texture from synoptic stream surveys, we calculated relative bed stability RBS* as the ratio of the geometric mean bed surface substrate diameter to the estimated bankfull critical diameter. RBS* decreased with increas...

General Framework for Employment. Tableau de Bord. (Synoptic Table). Second Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Commission of the European Communities, Brussels (Belgium). Directorate-General for Employment, Industrial Relations and Social Affairs.

This synoptic table provides an overview and comparison of employment trends and policy measures for each member state of the European Community. Information on the following countries is presented in eight chapters: Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, and United Kingdom. Chapter 0…

North Pacific Cloud Feedbacks Inferred from Synoptic-Scale Dynamic and Thermodynamic Relationships

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, Joel R.; Iacobellis, Sam F.

2005-01-01

This study analyzed daily satellite cloud observations and reanalysis dynamical parameters to determine how mid-tropospheric vertical velocity and advection over the sea surface temperature gradient control midlatitude North Pacific cloud properties. Optically thick clouds with high tops are generated by synoptic ascent, but two different cloud regimes occur under synoptic descent. When vertical motion is downward during summer, extensive stratocumulus cloudiness is associated with near surface northerly wind, while frequent cloudless pixels occur with southerly wind. Examinations of ship-reported cloud types indicates that midlatitude stratocumulus breaks up as the the boundary level decouples when it is advected equatorward over warmer water. Cumulus is prevalent under conditions of synoptic descent and cold advection during winter. Poleward advection of subtropical air over colder water causes stratification of the near-surface layer that inhibits upward mixing of moisture and suppresses cloudiness until a fog eventually forms. Averaging of cloud and radiation data into intervals of 500-hPa vertical velocity and advection over the SST gradient enables the cloud response to changes in temperature and the stratification of the lower troposphere to be investigated independent of the dynamics.

Synoptic maps of heliospheric Thomson scattering brightness from 1974-1985 as observed by the Helios photometers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hick, P.; Jackson, B. V.; Schwenn, R.

1992-01-01

We display the electron Thomson scattering intensity of the inner heliosphere as observed by the zodiacal light photometers on board the Helios spacecraft in the form of synoptic maps. The technique extrapolates the brightness information from each photometer sector near the Sun and constructs a latitude/longitude map at a given solar height. These data are unique in that they give a determination of heliospheric structures out of the ecliptic above the primary region of solar wind acceleration. The spatial extent of bright, co-rotating heliospheric structures is readily observed in the data north and south of the ecliptic plane where the Helios photometer coverage is most complete. Because the technique has been used on the complete Helios data set from 1974 to 1985, we observe the change in our synoptic maps with solar cycle. Bright structures are concentrated near the heliospheric equator at solar minimum, while at solar maximum bright structures are found at far higher heliographic latitudes. A comparison of these maps with other forms of synoptic data are shown for two available intervals.

Identifying relationships between baseflow geochemistry and land use with synoptic sampling and R-Mode factor analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wayland, Karen G.; Long, David T.; Hyndman, David W.; Pijanowski, Bryan C.; Woodhams, Sarah M.; Haak, Sheridan K.

2003-01-01

The relationship between land use and stream chemistry is often explored through synoptic sampling rivers at baseflow condition. However, base flow chemistry is likely to vary temporally and spatially with land use. The purpose of our study is to examine the usefulness of the synoptic sampling approach for identifying the relationship between complex land use configurations and stream water quality. This study compares biogeochemical data from three synoptic sampling events representing the temporal variability of baseflow chemistry and land use using R-mode factor analysis. Separate R-mode factor analyses of the data from individual sampling events yielded only two consistent factors. Agricultural activity was associated with elevated levels of Ca2+, Mg2+, alkalinity, and frequently K+, SO42-, and NO3-. Urban areas were associated with higher concentrations of Na+, K+, and Cl-. Other retained factors were not  consistent among sampling events, and some factors were difficult to interpret in the context of biogeochemical sources and processes. When all data were combined, further associations were revealed such as an inverse relationship between the proportion of wetlands and stream nitrate concentrations. We also found that barren lands were associated with elevated sulfate levels. This research suggests that an individual sampling event is unlikely to characterize adequately the complex processes controlling interactions between land uses and stream chemistry. Combining data collected over two years during three synoptic sampling events appears to enhance our ability to understand processes linking stream chemistry and land use.  

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crane, Robert G.; Hewitson, Bruce

1990-01-01

Model simulations of global climate change are seen as an essential component of any program aimed at understanding human impact on the global environment. A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs), however, is their inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global scale change, and it is these regional scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human/environmental response. This research is directed toward the development of a methodology for the validation of the synoptic scale climatology of GCMs. This is developed with regard to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM Model 2, with the specific objective of using the synoptic circulation form a doubles CO2 simulation to estimate regional climate change over North America, south of Hudson Bay. This progress report is specifically concerned with validating the synoptic climatology of the GISS GCM, and developing the transfer function to derive grid-point temperatures from the synoptic circulation. Principal Components Analysis is used to characterize the primary modes of the spatial and temporal variability in the observed and simulated climate, and the model validation is based on correlations between component loadings, and power spectral analysis of the component scores. The results show that the high resolution GISS model does an excellent job of simulating the synoptic circulation over the U.S., and that grid-point temperatures can be predicted with reasonable accuracy from the circulation patterns.

Storm-Based Fluvial Inputs: Nutrient, Phytoplankton, and Carbon Dioxide Responses in a Tropical Embayment, Kane'ohe Bay, Hawai'i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drupp, P. S.; de Carlo, E. H.; MacKenzie, F. T.; Bienfang, P.

2010-12-01

This work describes use of a buoy system to monitor, autonomously, pCO2 and water quality responses to land-derived nutrient inputs and the physical forcings associated with local storm events. These data represent 2.5 years of near-real time observations at a fixed station, collected concurrently with spatially distributed synoptic sampling over larger sections of Kaneohe Bay, Oahu, Hawaii. Nutrient loadings from direct rainfall and/or terrestrial runoff produce an immediate increase in the N:P ratio of bay waters up to 48, and drive phytoplankton biomass growth. Rapid uptake of nutrient input subsidies by phytoplankton causes a rapid decline of pCO2 and nitrogen, before a return to baseline levels with the subsequent decline of phytoplankton biomass over time scales ranging from a few days to several weeks, depending on the conditions and proximity to the sources of runoff. This work exemplifies the utility of combining synoptic sampling and real-time autonomous observations to elucidate the responses of coastal tropical coral reef systems to climatic perturbations over the array of time scales (hours to annual) on which they occur. Many subtropical and tropical systems throughout the Pacific Ocean are similar to Kaneohe Bay and our studies of how coral reef ecosystems respond under conditions of increased ocean acidification provides an important indication of the variability and range of CO2 dynamics that are likely to exist elsewhere. Such variability must be taken into account in any analysis of the direction and magnitude of the air-sea CO2 exchange for the integrated coastal ocean, both proximal and distal. Finally, it cannot be overemphasized that our work illustrates several examples of how high frequency sampling provided by a moored autonomous system can provide details about ecosystem responses to stochastic atmospheric forcing, which are commonly missed by traditional synoptic observational approaches. Figure 1: pCO2 levels and nitrate concentrations from 9/27/07 - 12/10/07. Storm events on 11/4 and 12/4 lead to a spike in nitrate and a corresponding drawdown of pCO2 due to phytoplankton blooms in response to the nutrient subsidy.

Synoptic Traveling Weather Systems on Mars: Effects of Radiatively-Active Water Ice Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.; Haberle, Robert; Atsuki Urata, Richard

2016-10-01

Atmospheric aerosols on Mars are critical in determining the nature of its thermal structure, its large-scale circulation, and hence the overall climate of the planet. We conduct multi-annual simulations with the latest version of the NASA Ames Mars global climate model (GCM), gcm2.3+, that includes a modernized radiative-transfer package and complex water-ice cloud microphysics package which permit radiative effects and interactions of suspended atmospheric aerosols (e.g., water ice clouds, water vapor, dust, and mutual interactions) to influence the net diabatic heating. Results indicate that radiatively active water ice clouds profoundly affect the seasonal and annual mean climate. The mean thermal structure and balanced circulation patterns are strongly modified near the surface and aloft. Warming of the subtropical atmosphere at altitude and cooling of the high latitude atmosphere at low levels takes place, which increases the mean pole-to-equator temperature contrast (i.e., "baroclinicity"). With radiatively active water ice clouds (RAC) compared to radiatively inert water ice clouds (nonRAC), significant changes in the intensity of the mean state and forced stationary Rossby modes occur, both of which affect the vigor and intensity of traveling, synoptic period weather systems. Such weather systems not only act as key agents in the transport of heat and momentum beyond the extent of the Hadley circulation, but also the transport of trace species such as water vapor, water ice-clouds, dust and others. The northern hemisphere (NH) forced Rossby waves and resultant wave train are augmented in the RAC case: the modes are more intense and the wave train is shifted equatorward. Significant changes also occur within the subtropics and tropics. The Rossby wave train sets up, combined with the traveling synoptic-period weather systems (i.e., cyclones and anticyclones), the geographic extent of storm zones (or storm tracks) within the NH. A variety of circulation features will be presented which indicate contrasts between the RAC and nonRAC cases, and which highlight key effects radiatively-active clouds have on physical and dynamical processes active in the current climate of Mars.

New perspectives on the synoptic and mesoscale structure of Hurricane Catarina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira Filho, Augusto José; Pezza, Alexandre Bernardes; Simmonds, Ian; Lima, Raquel Silva; Vianna, Marcio

2010-02-01

This work explores in detail synoptic and mesoscale features of Hurricane Catarina during its life cycle from a decaying baroclinic wave to a tropical depression that underwent tropical transition (TT) and finally to a Category 2 hurricane at landfall over Santa Catarina State coast, southern Brazil. This unique system caused 11 deaths mostly off the Brazilian coast and an estimated half billion dollars in damage in a matter of a few hours on 28 March 2004. Although the closest meteorological station available was tens of kilometres away from the eye, in situ meteorological measurements provided by a work-team sent to the area where the eye made landfall unequivocally reproduces the tropical signature with category 2 strength, adding to previous analysis where this data was not available. Further analyses are based mostly on remote sensing data available at the time of the event. A classic dipole blocking set synoptic conditions for Hurricane Catarina to develop, dynamically contributing to the low wind shear observed. On the other hand, on its westward transit, large scale subsidence limited its strength and vertical development. Catarina had relatively cool SST conditions, but this was mitigated by favourable air-sea fluxes leading to latent heat release-driven processes during the mature phase. The ocean's dynamic topography also suggested the presence of nearby warm core rings which may have facilitated the transition and post-transition intensification. Since there were no records of such a system at least in the past 30 years and given that SSTs were generally below 26 °C and vertical shear was usually strong, despite all satellite data available, the system was initially classified as an extratropical cyclone. Here we hypothesise that this categorization was based on inadequate regional scale model outputs which did not account for the importance of the latent heat fluxes over the ocean. Hurricane Catarina represents a dramatic event on weather systems in South America. It has attracted attention worldwide and poses questions as whether or not it is a symptom of global warming.

Synoptic Traveling Weather Systems on Mars: Effects of Radiatively-Active Water Ice Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery; Kahre, Melinda; Haberle, Robert; Urata, Richard

2017-01-01

Atmospheric aerosols on Mars are critical in determining the nature of its thermal structure, its large-scale circulation, and hence the overall climate of the planet. We conduct multi-annual simulations with the latest version of the NASA Ames Mars global climate model (GCM), gcm2.3+, that includes a modernized radiative-transfer package and complex water-ice cloud microphysics package which permit radiative effects and interactions of suspended atmospheric aerosols (e.g., water ice clouds, water vapor, dust, and mutual interactions) to influence the net diabatic heating. Results indicate that radiatively active water ice clouds profoundly affect the seasonal and annual mean climate. The mean thermal structure and balanced circulation patterns are strongly modified near the surface and aloft. Warming of the subtropical atmosphere at altitude and cooling of the high latitude atmosphere at low levels takes place, which increases the mean pole-to-equator temperature contrast (i.e., "baroclinicity"). With radiatively active water ice clouds (RAC) compared to radiatively inert water ice clouds (nonRAC), significant changes in the intensity of the mean state and forced stationary Rossby modes occur, both of which affect the vigor and intensity of traveling, synoptic period weather systems. Such weather systems not only act as key agents in the transport of heat and momentum beyond the extent of the Hadley circulation, but also the transport of trace species such as water vapor, water ice-clouds, dust and others. The northern hemisphere (NH) forced Rossby waves and resultant wave train are augmented in the RAC case: the modes are more intense and the wave train is shifted equatorward. Significant changes also occur within the subtropics and tropics. The Rossby wave train sets up, combined with the traveling synoptic period weather systems (i.e., cyclones and anticyclones), the geographic extent of storm zones (or storm tracks) within the NH. A variety of circulation features will be presented which indicate contrasts between the RAC and nonRAC cases, and which highlight key effects radiatively-active clouds have on physical and dynamical processes active in the current climate of Mars.

Synoptic Traveling Weather Systems on Mars: Effects of Radiatively-Active Water Ice Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery; Kahre, Melinda; Haberle, Robert; Urata, Richard

2017-01-01

Atmospheric aerosols on Mars are critical in determining the nature of its thermal structure, its large-scale circulation, and hence the overall climate of the planet. We conduct multi-annual simulations with the latest version of the NASA Ames Mars global climate model (GCM), gcm2.3+, that includes a modernized radiative-transfer package and complex water-ice cloud microphysics package which permit radiative effects and interactions of suspended atmospheric aerosols (e.g., water ice clouds, water vapor, dust, and mutual interactions) to influence the net diabatic heating. Results indicate that radiatively active water ice clouds profoundly affect the seasonal and annual mean climate. The mean thermal structure and balanced circulation patterns are strongly modified near the surface and aloft. Warming of the subtropical atmosphere at altitude and cooling of the high latitude atmosphere at low levels takes place, which increases the mean pole-to-equator temperature contrast (i.e., "baroclinicity"). With radiatively active water ice clouds (RAC) compared to radiatively inert water ice clouds (nonRAC), significant changes in the intensity of the mean state and forced stationary Rossby modes occur, both of which affect the vigor and intensity of traveling, synoptic period weather systems.Such weather systems not only act as key agents in the transport of heat and momentum beyond the extent of the Hadley circulation, but also the transport of trace species such as water vapor, water ice-clouds, dust and others. The northern hemisphere (NH) forced Rossby waves and resultant wave train are augmented in the RAC case: the modes are more intense and the wave train is shifted equatorward. Significant changes also occur within the subtropics and tropics. The Rossby wave train sets up, combined with the traveling synoptic period weather systems (i.e., cyclones and anticyclones), the geographic extent of storm zones (or storm tracks) within the NH. A variety of circulation features will be presented which indicate contrasts between the RAC and nonRAC cases, and which highlight key effects radiatively-active clouds have on physical and dynamical processes active in the current climate of Mars.

Upscale Impact of Mesoscale Disturbances of Tropical Convection on Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Q.; Majda, A.

2017-12-01

Tropical convection associated with convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) is typically organized by an eastward-moving synoptic-scale convective envelope with numerous embedded westward-moving mesoscale disturbances. It is of central importance to assess upscale impact of mesoscale disturbances on CCKWs as mesoscale disturbances propagate at various tilt angles and speeds. Here a simple multi-scale model is used to capture this multi-scale structure, where mesoscale fluctuations are directly driven by mesoscale heating and synoptic-scale circulation is forced by mean heating and eddy transfer of momentum and temperature. The two-dimensional version of the multi-scale model drives the synoptic-scale circulation, successfully reproduces key features of flow fields with a front-to-rear tilt and compares well with results from a cloud resolving model. In the scenario with an elevated upright mean heating, the tilted vertical structure of synoptic-scale circulation is still induced by the upscale impact of mesoscale disturbances. In a faster propagation scenario, the upscale impact becomes less important, while the synoptic-scale circulation response to mean heating dominates. In the unrealistic scenario with upward/westward tilted mesoscale heating, positive potential temperature anomalies are induced in the leading edge, which will suppress shallow convection in a moist environment. In its three-dimensional version, results show that upscale impact of mesoscale disturbances that propagate at tilt angles (110o 250o) induces negative lower-tropospheric potential temperature anomalies in the leading edge, providing favorable conditions for shallow convection in a moist environment, while the remaining tilt angle cases have opposite effects. Even in the presence of upright mean heating, the front-to-rear tilted synoptic-scale circulation can still be induced by eddy terms at tilt angles (120o 240o). In the case with fast propagating mesoscale heating, positive potential temperature anomalies are induced in the lower troposphere, suppressing convection in a moist environment. This simple model also reproduces convective momentum transport and CCKWs in agreement with results from a recent cloud resolving simulation.

Circulation types related to lightning activity over Catalonia and the Principality of Andorra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pineda, N.; Esteban, P.; Trapero, L.; Soler, X.; Beck, C.

In the present study, we use a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to characterize the surface 6-h circulation types related to substantial lightning activity over the Catalonia area (north-eastern Iberia) and the Principality of Andorra (eastern Pyrenees) from January 2003 to December 2007. The gridded data used for classification of the circulation types is the NCEP Final Analyses of the Global Tropospheric Analyses at 1° resolution over the region 35°N-48°N by 5°W-8°E. Lightning information was collected by the SAFIR lightning detection system operated by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC), which covers the region studied. We determined nine circulation types on the basis of the S-mode orthogonal rotated Principal Component Analysis. The “extreme scores” principle was used previous to the assignation of all cases, to obtain the number of final types and their centroids. The distinct differences identified in the resulting mean Sea Level Pressure (SLP) fields enabled us to group the types into three main patterns, taking into account their scale/dynamical origin. The first group of types shows the different distribution of the centres of action at synoptic scale associated with the occurrence of lightning. The second group is connected to mesoscale dynamics, mainly induced by the relief of the Pyrenees. The third group shows types with low gradient SLP patterns in which the lightning activity is a consequence of thermal dynamics (coastal and mountain breezes). Apart from reinforcing the consistency of the groups obtained, analysis of the resulting classification improves our understanding of the geographical distribution and genesis factors of thunderstorm activity in the study area, and provides complementary information for supporting weather forecasting. Thus, the catalogue obtained will provide advances in different climatological and meteorological applications, such as nowcasting products or detection of climate change trends.

Preliminary classification of water areas within the Atchafalaya Basin Floodway System by using landsat imagery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Yvonne C.; Constant, Glenn C.; Couvillion, Brady R.

2008-01-01

The southern portion of the Atchafalaya Basin Floodway System (ABFS) is a large area (2,571 km2) in south central Louisiana bounded on the east and west sides by a levee system. The ABFS is a sparsely populated area that includes some of the Nation's most significant extents of bottomland hardwoods, swamps, bayous, and backwater lakes, holding a rich abundance and diversity of terrestrial and aquatic species. The seasonal flow of water through the ABFS is critical to maintaining its ecological integrity. Because of strong interdependencies among species, habitat quality, and water flow in the ABFS, there is a need to better define the paths by which water moves at various stages of the hydrocycle. Although river level gages have collected a long historical record of water level variation, very little synoptic information has been available regarding the distribution and character of water at more remote locations in the basin. Most water management plans for the ABFS strive to improve water quality by increasing water flow and circulation from the main stem of the Atchafalaya River into isolated areas. To describe the distribution of land and water on a basin-wide scale, we chose to use Landsat 5 and Landsat 7 imagery to determine the extent of water distribution from 1985 to 2006 and at a variety of river stages. Because the visual signature of river water is high turbidity, we also used Landsat imagery to describe the distribution of turbid water in the ABFS. The ability to track water flow patterns by tracking turbid waters will enhance the characterization of water movement and aid in planning.

Investigation of nitrogen transformations in a southern California constructed wastewater treatment wetland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sartoris, J.J.; Thullen, J.S.; Barber, L.B.; Salas, D.E.

2000-01-01

A 9.9-ha combined habitat and wastewater treatment demonstration wetland was constructed and planted in the summer of 1994, at Eastern Municipal Water District’s (EMWD) Hemet/San Jacinto Regional Water Reclamation Facility (RWRF) in southern California. From January 1996 through September 1997, the marsh–pond–marsh wetland system was operated to polish an average of 3785 m3 d−1 (1×106 gal day−1) of secondary-treated effluent from the RWRF. Nitrogen removal was a major objective of this wetland treatment. Weekly inflow/outflow water quality monitoring of the wetland was supplemented with biannual, 45-station synoptic surveys within the system to determine internal distribution patterns of the nitrogen species (total ammonia, nitrite, nitrate, and organic nitrogen), total organic carbon (TOC), and ultraviolet absorbance at 254 nm (UV254). Synoptic surveys were carried out during May 22 and September 17, 1996, and May 6 and September 25, 1997 and the results were mapped using the ARC/INFO processing package and inverse distance weighted mathematical techniques. Distribution patterns of the various nitrogen species, TOC, and UV254 within the wetland indicate that the nitrogen dynamics of the system are influenced both by variations in treatment plant loading, and, increasingly, by the degree of coverage and maturity of the emergent vegetation.

The Palomar Transient Factory: High Quality Realtime Data Processing in a Cost-Constrained Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surace, J.; Laher, R.; Masci, F.; Grillmair, C.; Helou, G.

2015-09-01

The Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) is a synoptic sky survey in operation since 2009. PTF utilizes a 7.1 square degree camera on the Palomar 48-inch Schmidt telescope to survey the sky primarily at a single wavelength (R-band) at a rate of 1000-3000 square degrees a night. The data are used to detect and study transient and moving objects such as gamma ray bursts, supernovae and asteroids, as well as variable phenomena such as quasars and Galactic stars. The data processing system at IPAC handles realtime processing and detection of transients, solar system object processing, high photometric precision processing and light curve generation, and long-term archiving and curation. This was developed under an extremely limited budget profile in an unusually agile development environment. Here we discuss the mechanics of this system and our overall development approach. Although a significant scientific installation in of itself, PTF also serves as the prototype for our next generation project, the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). Beginning operations in 2017, ZTF will feature a 50 square degree camera which will enable scanning of the entire northern visible sky every night. ZTF in turn will serve as a stepping stone to the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), a major NSF facility scheduled to begin operations in the early 2020s.

Terra Australis to Oceania: racial geography in the "fifth part of the world".

PubMed

Douglas, Bronwen

2010-01-01

This paper is a synoptic history of racial geography in the 'fifth part of the world' or Oceania - an extended region embracing what are now Australia, Island Southeast Asia, the Pacific Islands, Aotearoa/New Zealand and Papua New Guinea. The period in question stretches from classical antiquity to the Enlightenment, to focus on the consolidation of European racial thinking with the marriage of geography and raciology in the early 19th century. The paper investigates the naming of places by Europeans and its ultimate entanglement with their racial classifications of people. The formulation of geographical and anthropological knowledge is located at the interface of metropolitan discourses and local experience. This necessitates unpacking the relationships between, on the one hand, the deductive reasoning of metropolitan savants, and, on the other hand, the empirical logic of voyagers and settlers who had visited or lived in particular places, encountered their inhabitants, and been exposed, often unwittingly, to indigenous agency and knowledge.

Intraepithelial lymphocytes, scores, mimickers and challenges in diagnosing gluten-sensitive enteropathy (celiac disease)

PubMed Central

Sergi, Consolato; Shen, Fan; Bouma, Gerd

2017-01-01

The upper digestive tract is routinely scoped for several causes of malabsorption, and the number of duodenal biopsy specimens has increased notably in the last 10 years. Gluten-sensitive enteropathy (GSE) is an autoimmune disease, which shows an increasing prevalence worldwide and requires a joint clinico-pathological approach. The classical histopathology of GSE with partial or total villous blunting is well recognized, but the classification of GSE is not straightforward. Moreover, several mimickers of GSE with intraepithelial lymphocytosis have been identified in the last 20 years, with drug interactions and medical comorbidities adding to the conundrum. In this review, we report on the normal duodenal mucosa, the clinical presentation and laboratory diagnosis of GSE, the duodenal intraepithelial lymphocytes and immunophenotype of GSE-associated lymphocytes, the GSE mimickers, the differences “across oceans” among guidelines in diagnosing GSE, and the use of a synoptic report for reporting duodenal biopsies in both children and adults in the 21st century. PMID:28216964

Foehn at the lowest place on earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayr, Georg; Metzger, Jutta; Mayr, Raphael

2017-04-01

Foehn occurs at the Dead Sea. Measurements from weather stations at the valley floor and on the slope show that the prime season for foehn is summer and the prime time late afternoon and evening (using the objective classification algorithm of Plavcan et al (2014)[1]). During summer synoptic scale forcing with cross-barrier winds is rare and thus the gravity-wave-driven concept cannot be used to explain the occurrence of foehn. The density-driven foehn concept [2], on the other hand, with denser air at crest level upstream than in the valley can explain the occurrence of foehn. It also explains the differences in foehn frequency between the slope and valley bottom station. References: [1] Plavcan, D., Mayr, G. J., & Zeileis, A. (2014). Automatic and probabilistic foehn diagnosis with a statistical mixture model. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 53(3), 652-659. [2] Mayr, G. J., & Armi, L. (2010). The influence of downstream diurnal heating on the descent of flow across the Sierras. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 49(9), 1906-1912.

The study on the new approach to the prediction of the solar flares: The statistical relation from the SOHO archive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, S.; Oh, S.; Lee, J.; Hong, S.

2013-12-01

We have investigated the statistical relationship of the solar active region to predict the solar flare event analyzing the sunspot catalogue, which has been newly constructed from the SOHO MDI observation data during the period from 1996 to 2011 (Solar Cycle 23 & 24) by ASSA(Automatic Solar Synoptic Analyzer) algorithms. The prediction relation has been made by machine-learning algorithms to establish a short- term flare prediction model for operational use in near future. In this study, continuum and magnetogram images observed by SOHO has been processed to yield 15-year sunspot group catalogue that contains various physical parameters such as sunspot area, extent, asymmetry measure of largest penumbral sunspot, roughness of magnetic neutral line as well as McIntosh and Mt. Wilson classification results.The latest result of our study will be presented and the new approach to the prediction of the solar flare will be discussed.

The role of land use change on the sustainability of groundwater resources in the eastern plains of Kurdistan, Iran.

PubMed

Amini, Ata; Hesami, Ali

2017-06-01

In this study, land use change and its effects on level and volume of groundwater were investigated. Using satellite images and field measurements, change in land uses was determined from 1998 to 2007. By analyzing the observation wells data and preparing the zoning maps in GIS, groundwater level fluctuations were assessed. Considering the area corresponding to these fluctuations, changes in aquifers volume were calculated. The rain gauge and synoptic stations data were used to calculate meteorological parameters and evapotranspiration. The water requirement of the main crops was determined by CROPWAT software. Results showed an increase in average rainfall and crops water requirement. The classification of satellite images showed that 11,800 ha was increased in lands under irrigated crops cultivation, while 27,655 ha of rangeland was declined in the region. Groundwater levels dropped an average of 7 m, equal to 63.4 MCM reductions in volume of water in the aquifer.

Extreme weather and air pollution effects on cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions in Cyprus.

PubMed

Tsangari, H; Paschalidou, A K; Kassomenos, A P; Vardoulakis, S; Heaviside, C; Georgiou, K E; Yamasaki, E N

2016-01-15

In many regions of the world, climatic change is associated with increased extreme temperatures, which can have severe effects on mortality and morbidity. In this study, we examine the effect of extreme weather on hospital admissions in Cyprus, for inland and coastal areas, through the use of synoptic weather classifications (air mass types). In addition, the effect of particulate air pollution (PM10) on morbidity is examined. Our results show that two air mass types, namely (a) warm, rainy days with increased levels of water vapour in the atmosphere and (b) cold, cloudy days with increased levels of precipitation, were associated with increased morbidity in the form of hospital admissions. This was true both for cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, for all age groups, but particularly for the elderly, aged over 65. Particulate air pollution was also associated with increased morbidity in Cyprus, where the effect was more pronounced for cardiovascular diseases. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ground Based Synoptic Instrumentation for Solar Observations (Postprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-05

vector spectropolarimetry in FeI 630.15-630.25 nm wavelength range, and line-of-sight (circular) polarimetry in Fe I 6301.5-6302.5 Å, and Ca II 8542 Å...Stokes vector polarimetry . Opt. Eng. 38, 1402-1408, 1999. [22] C. U. Keller, J. W. Harvey, M. S. Giampapa, “SOLIS: an innovative suite of synoptic

Characteristics of the Areas in which Fast Current Oil Control is Needed

DTIC Science & Technology

1973-11-01

Synoptic Meteorlogical Observations (1970) U. S. Department of Commerce, Local Cllmatologlcal Data (1972) 51 Q po «» o ov in .Hi «M iH H H <N S 4...Oceanographic Office, Washington, D. C. 24. Summary of Synoptic Meteorlogical Observations; U.S. Navy Weather Command, Washington, P C. 1970 - Volumes 1

The Application of Synoptic Weather Forecasting Rules to Selected Weather Situations in the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kohler, Fred E.

The document describes the use of weather maps and data in teaching introductory college courses in synoptic meteorology. Students examine weather changes at three-hour intervals from data obtained from the "Monthly Summary of Local Climatological Data." Weather variables in the local summary include sky cover, air temperature, dew point, relative…

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope project management control system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kantor, Jeffrey P.

2012-09-01

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) program is jointly funded by the NSF, the DOE, and private institutions and donors. From an NSF funding standpoint, the LSST is a Major Research Equipment and Facilities (MREFC) project. The NSF funding process requires proposals and D&D reviews to include activity-based budgets and schedules; documented basis of estimates; risk-based contingency analysis; cost escalation and categorization. "Out-of-the box," the commercial tool Primavera P6 contains approximately 90% of the planning and estimating capability needed to satisfy R&D phase requirements, and it is customizable/configurable for remainder with relatively little effort. We describe the customization/configuration and use of Primavera for the LSST Project Management Control System (PMCS), assess our experience to date, and describe future directions. Examples in this paper are drawn from the LSST Data Management System (DMS), which is one of three main subsystems of the LSST and is funded by the NSF. By astronomy standards the LSST DMS is a large data management project, processing and archiving over 70 petabyes of image data, producing over 20 petabytes of catalogs annually, and generating 2 million transient alerts per night. Over the 6-year construction and commissioning phase, the DM project is estimated to require 600,000 hours of engineering effort. In total, the DMS cost is approximately 60% hardware/system software and 40% labor.

School Leadership Makes a Difference: A Sociological Perspective of Effective Strategic Planning and Integrating Realms of Meaning into School Improvement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ishaq, Kashan; Kritsonis, William Allan

2009-01-01

The leader of the school with an embraced philosophy and understanding of the six realms of meaning ("Symbolics," "Empirics," "Esthetics," "Synnoetics," "Ethics" and "Synoptics") can lead the educational system of the school towards the direction of celebrating the success of the children attending the school. Kritsonis states: "World-Wide, people…

Transport of a Power Plant Tracer Plume over Grand Canyon National Park.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jun; Bornstein, Robert; Lindsey, Charles G.

1999-08-01

Meteorological and air-quality data, as well as surface tracer concentration values, were collected during 1990 to assess the impacts of Navajo Generating Station (NGS) emissions on Grand Canyon National Park (GCNP) air quality. These data have been used in the present investigation to determine between direct and indirect transport routes taken by the NGS plume to produce measured high-tracer concentration events at GCNP.The meteorological data were used as input into a three-dimensional mass-consistent wind model, whose output was used as input into a horizontal forward-trajectory model. Calculated polluted air locations were compared with observed surface-tracer concentration values.Results show that complex-terrain features affect local wind-flow patterns during winter in the Grand Canyon area. Local channeling, decoupled canyon winds, and slope and valley flows dominate in the region when synoptic systems are weak. Direct NGS plume transport to GCNP occurs with northeasterly plume-height winds, while indirect transport to the park is caused by wind direction shifts associated with passing synoptic systems. Calculated polluted airmass positions along the modeled streak lines match measured surface-tracer observations in both space and time.

Synoptic Storms in the North Atlantic in the Atmospheric Reanalysis and Scatterometer-Based Wind Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dukhovskoy, D. S.; Bourassa, M. A.

2016-12-01

The study compares and analyses the characteristics of synoptic storms in the Subpolar North Atlantic over the time period from 2000 through 2009 derived from reanalysis data sets and scatterometer-based gridded wind products. The analysis is performed for ocean 10-m winds derived from the following wind data sets: NCEP/DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (NCEPR2), NCAR/CFSR, Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR) version 1, Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) wind product versions 1.1 and recently released version 2.0 prepared by the Remote Sensing Systems, and QuikSCAT. A cyclone tracking algorithm employed in this study for storm identification is based on average vorticity fields derived from the wind data. The study discusses storm characteristics such as storm counts, trajectories, intensity, integrated kinetic energy, spatial scale. Interannal variability of these characteristics in the data sets is compared. The analyses demonstrates general agreement among the wind data products on the characteristics of the storms, their spatial distribution and trajectories. On average, the NCEPR2 storms are more energetic mostly due to large spatial scales and stronger winds. There is noticeable interannual variability in the storm characteristics, yet no obvious trend in storms is observed in the data sets.

Creating a Canonical Scientific and Technical Information Classification System for NCSTRL+

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tiffany, Melissa E.; Nelson, Michael L.

1998-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to describe the new subject classification system for the NCSTRL+ project. NCSTRL+ is a canonical digital library (DL) based on the Networked Computer Science Technical Report Library (NCSTRL). The current NCSTRL+ classification system uses the NASA Scientific and Technical (STI) subject classifications, which has a bias towards the aerospace, aeronautics, and engineering disciplines. Examination of other scientific and technical information classification systems showed similar discipline-centric weaknesses. Traditional, library-oriented classification systems represented all disciplines, but were too generalized to serve the needs of a scientific and technically oriented digital library. Lack of a suitable existing classification system led to the creation of a lightweight, balanced, general classification system that allows the mapping of more specialized classification schemes into the new framework. We have developed the following classification system to give equal weight to all STI disciplines, while being compact and lightweight.

Weather types and strokes in the Augsburg region (Southern Germany)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Christoph; Ertl, Michael; Giemsa, Esther; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Naumann, Markus; Seubert, Stefanie

2017-04-01

Strokes are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide and the main reason for longterm care dependency in Germany. Concerning the economical impact on patients and healthcare systems it is of particular importance to prevent this disease as well as to improve the outcome of the affected persons. Beside the primary well-known risk factors like hypertension, cigarette smoking, physical inactivity and others, also weather seems to have pronounced influence on the occurrence and frequency of strokes. Previous studies most often focused on effects of singular meteorological variables like ambient air temperature, air pressure or humidity. An advanced approach is to link the entire suite of daily weather elements classified to air mass- or weather types to cerebrovascular morbidity or mortality. In a joint pilot study bringing together climatologists, environmental scientists and physicians from the University of Augsburg and the clinical centre Augsburg, we analysed relationships between singular meteorological parameters as well as combined weather effects (e.g. weather types) and strokes in the urban area of Augsburg and the surrounding rural region. A total of 17.501 stroke admissions to Neurological Clinic and Clinical Neurophysiology at Klinikum Augsburg between 2006 and 2015 are classified to either "ischaemic" (16.354) or "haemorrhagic" (1.147) subtype according to etiology (based on the International Classification of Diseases - 10th Revision). Spearman correlations between daily frequencies of ischaemic and haemorrhagic strokes and singular atmospheric parameters (T, Tmin, Tmax, air pressure, humidity etc.) measured at the DWD (German weather service) meteorological station at Augsburg Muehlhausen are rather low. However, higher correlations are achieved when considering sub-samples of "homogenous weather conditions" derived from synoptic circulation classifications: e.g. within almost all of 10 types arising from a classification of central European mean sea level pressure fields into "Großwettertypes" (Beck 2000) the relationships between meteorological variables and stroke frequencies are increasing. Mainly temperature variables (Tmin, Tmax, Tmean) appear to be important particularly in winter and summer. Moreover distinct correlations of similar magnitude are obtained with other variables like wind speed or precipitation for specific weather types (e.g. westerly type). In how far these initial findings do really point to additional health impacts beyond temperature effects is subject of ongoing work.

Elucidating the relationship between aerosol concentration and summertime boundary layer structure in central China.

PubMed

Liu, Lin; Guo, Jianping; Miao, Yucong; Liu, Lin; Li, Jian; Chen, Dandan; He, Jing; Cui, Chunguang

2018-06-11

Wuhan, a megacity in central China, suffers from frequent aerosol pollution and is accompanied by meteorological factors at both synoptic and local scales. Partly due to the lack of appropriate observations of planetary boundary layer (PBL), the associations between synoptic conditions, PBL, and pollution there are not yet fully understood. Thus, systematic analyses were conducted using the fine-resolution soundings, surface meteorological measurements, and aerosol observations in Wuhan during summer for the period 2013-2016, in combination with T-mode principal component analysis and simulations of backward trajectory. The results showed that the variations of boundary layer height (BLH) not only modulated the diurnal variation of PM 2.5 concentration in Wuhan, but also the daily pollution level. Five different synoptic patterns during summer in Wuhan were identified from reanalysis geopotential height fields. Among these synoptic patterns, two types characterized by northeasterly prevailing winds, were found to be associated with heavy pollution in Wuhan. Driven by the northeasterly winds, the polluted air mass from the heavily polluted regions could be easily transported to Wuhan, such as North China Plain and Yangtze River Delta. Such regional transports of pollutants must be partly responsible for the aerosol pollution in Wuhan. In addition, these two synoptic patterns were also featured by the relatively high cloud cover and low boundary layer height in Wuhan, which would favor the occurrence of pollution there. Overall, this study has important implications for understanding the important roles of meteorological factors in modulating aerosol pollution in central China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Marine habitat mapping of the Milford Haven Waterway, Wales, UK: Comparison of facies mapping and EUNIS classification for monitoring sediment habitats in an industrialized estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carey, Drew A.; Hayn, Melanie; Germano, Joseph D.; Little, David I.; Bullimore, Blaise

2015-06-01

A detailed map and dataset of sedimentary habitats of the Milford Haven Waterway (MHW) was compiled for the Milford Haven Waterway Environmental Surveillance Group (MHWESG) from seafloor images collected in May, 2012 using sediment-profile and plan-view imaging (SPI/PV) survey techniques. This is the most comprehensive synoptic assessment of sediment distribution and benthic habitat composition available for the MHW, with 559 stations covering over 40 km2 of subtidal habitats. In the context of the MHW, an interpretative framework was developed that classified each station within a 'facies' that included information on the location within the waterway and inferred sedimentary and biological processes. The facies approach provides critical information on landscape-scale habitats including relative location and inferred sediment transport processes and can be used to direct future monitoring activities within the MHW and to predict areas of greatest potential risk from contaminant transport. Intertidal sediment 'facies' maps have been compiled in the past for MHW; this approach was expanded to map the subtidal portions of the waterway. Because sediment facies can be projected over larger areas than individual samples (due to assumptions based on physiography, or landforms) they represent an observational model of the distribution of sediments in an estuary. This model can be tested over time and space through comparison with additional past or future sample results. This approach provides a means to evaluate stability or change in the physical and biological conditions of the estuarine system. Initial comparison with past results for intertidal facies mapping and grain size analysis from grab samples showed remarkable stability over time for the MHW. The results of the SPI/PV mapping effort were cross-walked to the European Nature Information System (EUNIS) classification to provide a comparison of locally derived habitat mapping with European-standard habitat mapping. Cross-walk was conducted by assigning each facies (or group of facies) to a EUNIS habitat (Levels 3 or 5) and compiling maps comparing facies distribution with EUNIS habitat distribution. The facies approach provides critical information on landscape-scale habitats including relative location and inferred sediment transport processes. The SPI/PV approach cannot consistently identify key species contained within the EUNIS Level 5 Habitats. For regional planning and monitoring efforts, a combination of EUNIS classification and facies description provides the greatest flexibility for management of dynamic soft-bottom habitats in coastal estuaries. The combined approach can be used to generate and test hypotheses of linkages between biological characteristics (EUNIS) and physical characteristics (facies). This approach is practical if a robust cross-walk methodology is developed to utilize both classification approaches. SPI/PV technology can be an effective rapid ground truth method for refining marine habitat maps based on predictive models.

Attitude-referenced radiometer study. Part 2: Primary calibration system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williamson, W. R.; Otte, A. A.

1971-01-01

A primary calibration system, PCS, for infrared radiometers has been developed, built, and tested. The system allows radiometers to be calibrated with less than 1 percent error for use in earth coverage horizon measurements, earth resources surveys, and synoptic meteorological measurement. The final design, fabrication and test of the PCS are reported. A detailed description of the PCS construction is presented, along with the results of a complete series of functional tests. Test to verify the source thermal characteristics, collimator reflectance, and output beam characteristics are described and their results presented.

Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather

Treesearch

Mark J. Schroeder; Monte Glovinsky; Virgil F. Hendricks; Frank C. Hood; Melvin K. Hull; Henry L. Jacobson; Robert Kirkpatrick; Daniel W. Krueger; Lester P. Mallory; Albert G. Oeztel; Robert H. Reese; Leo A. Sergius; Charles E. Syverson

1964-01-01

Recognizing that weather is an important factor in the spread of both urban and wildland fires, a study was made of the synoptic weather patterns and types which produce strong winds, low relative humidities, high temperatures, and lack of rainfall--the conditions conducive to rapid fire spread. Such historic fires as the San Francisco fire of 1906, the Berkeley fire...

Lodgepole pine site index in relation to synoptic measures of climate, soil moisture and soil nutrients.

Treesearch

G. Geoff Wang; Shongming Huang; Robert A. Monserud; Ryan J. Klos

2004-01-01

Lodgepole pine site index was examined in relation to synoptic measures of topography, soil moisture, and soil nutrients in Alberta. Data came from 214 lodgepole pine-dominated stands sampled as a part of the provincial permanent sample plot program. Spatial location (elevation, latitude, and longitude) and natural subregions (NSRs) were topographic variables that...

Evidence for gap flows in the Birch Creek Valley, Idaho

Treesearch

D. Finn; B. Reese; B. Butler; N. Wagenbrenner; K. L. Clawson; J. Rich; E. Russell; Z. Gao; H. Liu

2016-01-01

A field study was conducted of flows in the Birch Creek Valley in eastern Idaho. There is a distinct topographic constriction in the Birch Creek Valley that creates two subbasins: an upper and lower valley. The data were classified into one of three groups based on synoptic influence (weak/absent, high wind speeds, and other evidence of synoptic influence). Gap flows...

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crane, Robert G.; Hewitson, B. C.

1991-01-01

A new diagnostic tool is developed for examining relationships between the synoptic scale circulation and regional temperature distributions in GCMs. The 4 x 5 deg GISS GCM is shown to produce accurate simulations of the variance in the synoptic scale sea level pressure distribution over the U.S. An analysis of the observational data set from the National Meteorological Center (NMC) also shows a strong relationship between the synoptic circulation and grid point temperatures. This relationship is demonstrated by deriving transfer functions between a time-series of circulation parameters and temperatures at individual grid points. The circulation parameters are derived using rotated principal components analysis, and the temperature transfer functions are based on multivariate polynomial regression models. The application of these transfer functions to the GCM circulation indicates that there is considerable spatial bias present in the GCM temperature distributions. The transfer functions are also used to indicate the possible changes in U.S. regional temperatures that could result from differences in synoptic scale circulation between a 1XCO2 and a 2xCO2 climate, using a doubled CO2 version of the same GISS GCM.

Interannual Variations in Synoptic-Scale Disturbances over the Western North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Xingyan; Lu, Riyu; Chen, Guanghua; Wu, Liang

2018-05-01

The present study investigates the interannual variation of June-November synoptic disturbance activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) and its relationship with large-scale circulation for the period 1958-2014. Two leading modes of eddy kinetic energy for the disturbance variability over the WNP are obtained by EOF analysis, characterized by anomalous eddy kinetic energy over the subtropical WNP and around the Philippines, respectively. These modes explain a large portion of the interannual variance of synoptic disturbance activity over the WNP. Both are associated with lower-level cyclonic anomalies, but with different locations: over the subtropical WNP for the first mode and over the South China Sea for the second mode. Considering the impact of ENSO on synoptic disturbance activity over the WNP, we repeat the analyses after removing the effect of ENSO, which is simply defined as the components linearly regressed onto the Niño3.4 index, and find similar results, suggesting that the leading modes and their relationships with large-scale circulation exist without SST effects. Further analyses suggest that the meridional shear of zonal winds caused by cyclonic anomalies is crucial for maintaining the leading modes through barotropic conversion.

Towards Operational Meteotsunami Early Warning System: the Adriatic Project MESSI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilibic, I.; Sepic, J.; Denamiel, C. L.; Mihanovic, H.; Muslim, S.; Tudor, M.; Ivankovic, D.; Jelavic, D.; Kovacevic, V.; Masce, T.; Dadic, V.; Gacic, M.; Horvath, K.; Monserrat, S.; Rabinovich, A.; Telisman-Prtenjak, M.

2017-12-01

A number of destructive meteotsunamis - atmospherically-driven long ocean waves in a tsunami frequency band - occurred during the last decade through the world oceans. Owing to significant damage caused by these meteotsunamis, several scientific groups (occasionally in collaboration with public offices) have started developing meteotsunami warning systems. Creation of one such system has been initialized in the late 2015 within the MESSI (Meteotsunamis, destructive long ocean waves in the tsunami frequency band: from observations and simulations towards a warning system) project. Main goal of this project is to build a prototype of a meteotsunami warning system for the eastern Adriatic coast. The system will be based on real-time measurements, operational atmosphere and ocean modeling and real time decision-making process. Envisioned MESSI meteotsunami warning system consists of three modules: (1) synoptic warning module, which will use established correlation between forecasted synoptic fields and high-frequency sea level oscillations to provide qualitative meteotsunami forecasts for up to a week in advance, (2) probabilistic premodeling prediction module, which will use operational WRF-ROMS-ADCIRC modeling system and compare the forecast with an atlas of presimulations to get the probabilistic meteotsunami forecast for up to three days in advance, and (3) real-time module, which is based on real time tracking of properties of air pressure disturbance (amplitude, speed, direction, period, ...) and their real-time comparison with the atlas of meteotsunami simulations. System will be tested on recent meteotsunami events which were recorded in the MESSI area shortly after the operational meteotsunami network installation. Albeit complex, such a multilevel warning system has a potential to be adapted to most meteotsunami hot spots, simply by tuning the system parameters to the available atmospheric and ocean data.

Improving synoptic and intraseasonal variability in CFSv2 via stochastic representation of organized convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goswami, B. B.; Khouider, B.; Phani, R.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Majda, A.

2017-01-01

To better represent organized convection in the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), a stochastic multicloud model (SMCM) parameterization is adopted and a 15 year climate run is made. The last 10 years of simulations are analyzed here. While retaining an equally good mean state (if not better) as the parent model, the CFS-SMCM simulation shows significant improvement in the synoptic and intraseasonal variability. The CFS-SMCM provides a better account of convectively coupled equatorial waves and the Madden-Julian oscillation. The CFS-SMCM exhibits improvements in northward and eastward propagation of intraseasonal oscillation of convection including the MJO propagation beyond the maritime continent barrier, which is the Achilles Heel for coarse-resolution global climate models (GCMs). The distribution of precipitation events is better simulated in CFSsmcm and spreads naturally toward high-precipitation events. Deterministic GCMs tend to simulate a narrow distribution with too much drizzling precipitation and too little high-precipitation events.

Synoptic scale wind field properties from the SEASAT SASS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierson, W. J., Jr.; Sylvester, W. B.; Salfi, R. E.

1984-01-01

Dealiased SEASAT SEASAT A Scatterometer System SASS vector winds obtained during the Gulf Of Alaska SEASAT Experiment GOASEX program are processed to obtain superobservations centered on a one degree by one degree grid. The grid. The results provide values for the combined effects of mesoscale variability and communication noise on the individual SASS winds. These superobservations winds are then processed further to obtain estimates of synoptic scale vector winds stress fields, the horizontal divergence of the wind, the curl of the wind stress and the vertical velocity at 200 m above the sea surface, each with appropriate standard deviations of the estimates for each grid point value. They also explain the concentration of water vapor, liquid water and precipitation found by means of the SMMR Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer at fronts and occlusions in terms of strong warm, moist air advection in the warm air sector accompanied by convergence in the friction layer. Their quality is far superior to that of analyses based on conventional data, which are shown to yield many inconsistencies.

A web-based land cover classification system based on ontology model of different classification systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Y.; Chen, X.

2016-12-01

Land cover classification systems used in remote sensing image data have been developed to meet the needs for depicting land covers in scientific investigations and policy decisions. However, accuracy assessments of a spate of data sets demonstrate that compared with the real physiognomy, each of the thematic map of specific land cover classification system contains some unavoidable flaws and unintended deviation. This work proposes a web-based land cover classification system, an integrated prototype, based on an ontology model of various classification systems, each of which is assigned the same weight in the final determination of land cover type. Ontology, a formal explication of specific concepts and relations, is employed in this prototype to build up the connections among different systems to resolve the naming conflicts. The process is initialized by measuring semantic similarity between terminologies in the systems and the search key to produce certain set of satisfied classifications, and carries on through searching the predefined relations in concepts of all classification systems to generate classification maps with user-specified land cover type highlighted, based on probability calculated by votes from data sets with different classification system adopted. The present system is verified and validated by comparing the classification results with those most common systems. Due to full consideration and meaningful expression of each classification system using ontology and the convenience that the web brings with itself, this system, as a preliminary model, proposes a flexible and extensible architecture for classification system integration and data fusion, thereby providing a strong foundation for the future work.

Synoptic study of the seasonal variability of dust cases observed by the TOMS satellite over northern Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Awad, Adel M.; Mashat, Abdul-Wahab S.; Alamoudi, Ahmad O.; Assiri, Mazen E.

2016-05-01

The aerosol index (AI) from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) satellite and meteorological parameters from National Center for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis datasets were used to examine seasonal dust cases in northern Saudi Arabia. Considering all seasons, winter has the fewest dust cases, whereas summer has the most dust cases. Synoptically, surface high-pressure systems in the eastern and western regions are important for the occurrence of dust cases over the northern Arabian Peninsula. When the eastern high pressure prevails, the effects of the Indian low-pressure system on the Arabian Peninsula are weakened or become nonexistent. The extension of the western high-pressure system toward the southeast provides an opportunity for a low-pressure system over Southeast Africa to connect with the Indian low-pressure system, which increases the width of the low-pressure trough and affects the Arabian Peninsula by increasing the amount of dust over the region. At 850 hPa, the weather systems typically rotate clockwise between winter and autumn. In winter, cyclonic systems prevail in the northern region, while anticyclonic systems prevail in the south. The systems are oriented toward the northeast in spring, the west in summer, and the southeast in autumn. Moreover, northern cyclones at 500 hPa shrink as they move northward and the maximum wind speed at 250 hPa decreases from winter to summer. Furthermore, the case study confirms that a change in the relative strength of the pressure systems and a change in the orientation of the isobars (contours) affect the amount of dust over the area. When the orientation of the isobar (contour) lines become strictly north to south or east to west, the amount of dust decreases and vice versa.

42 CFR 412.620 - Patient classification system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Patient classification system. 412.620 Section 412... Inpatient Rehabilitation Hospitals and Rehabilitation Units § 412.620 Patient classification system. (a) Classification methodology. (1) A patient classification system is used to classify patients in inpatient...

42 CFR 412.620 - Patient classification system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 42 Public Health 2 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Patient classification system. 412.620 Section 412... Inpatient Rehabilitation Hospitals and Rehabilitation Units § 412.620 Patient classification system. (a) Classification methodology. (1) A patient classification system is used to classify patients in inpatient...

A new perspective on the regional hydrologic cycle over North and South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weng, Shu-Ping

The GEOS-1 vertically-integrated 3-hr moisture flux reanalyses and hourly-gridded United States station precipitation plus a satellite-based, 6-hr global precipitation estimate were employed to investigate the impacts of nocturnal low-level jets (LLJs) on the regional hydrological cycle over the central United States (Part I) and the subtropical plains of South America (Part II). Research stressed the influences of upper-level synoptic-scale waves (i.e., synoptic-scale forcings) upon the regional hydrologic processes, which were explored by the impacts associated with the occurrence of LLJ. Besides the conventional budget analysis, the adopted `synoptic-forcing approach' was proven illustrative in describing these impacts through the down-scaling process of LLJs. In Part 1, the major findings include: (1)the seasonal-averaged hydrological cycle over the Great Plains is strongly affected by the occurrence of GPLLJ, (2)the synoptic-scale forcing provided by the upper-level propagating jet (ULJ) streams is essential in generating the large-scale precipitation after the GPLLJ forms from the diurnal boundary layer process, (3)without the dynamic coupling between the ULJ and LLJ, the impact of LLJ on the hydrological cycle is demonstrated to be less important, and (4)the importance of synoptic-scale forcings in preconditioning the setting of wet/dry seasons in the interannual variability of rainfall anomaly is further illustrated by examining the changes of intensity as well as the occurrence frequency between the different types of LLJ. In Part II of this study, it was found that the occurrence of Andean LLJ represents a transient episode that detours the climatic rainfall activity along the South Atlantic Convergent Zone (SACZ) to the subtropical plains (Brazilian Nordeste) in its southwestern (northeastern) flank. The appearance of a seesaw pattern in the rainfall and flux convergence anomalies along the southeastern portion of South America, which is spatially in quadrature with the seasonal mean circulation, reflects the synoptic-scale forcing generated by the upper-level propagating transient-scale waves. In this regard, the function of the Andean LLJ in providing a scale-interaction mechanism that links the synoptic-scale setting with the localized rainfall event is the same as the GPLLJ. Due to the unique geographic background such as the narrow east-west landmass extension and the relative orientation between the Andean LLJ and the ULJ, however, the enhanced rainfall activity over the subtropical plains in response to the perturbed flux convergence is smaller than the case in the GPLLJ.

Traveling Weather Disturbances in Mars Southern Extratropics: Sway of the Great Impact Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

2016-01-01

As on Earth, between late autumn and early spring on Mars middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal contrasts between the equator and poles (i.e. "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e. transient synoptic-period waves). Within a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, such large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. These wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and moreover generalized tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water vapor and water-ice clouds) between low and high latitudes of the planet. The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This global circulation model imposes interactively lifted (and radiatively active) dust based on a threshold value of the instantaneous surface stress. Compared to observations, the model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e. globally averaged, a more dusty atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). In contrast to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense synoptically. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e. east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather disturbances are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars' full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating essential large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars' transient barotropic/baroclinic eddies are significantly influenced by the great impact basins of this hemisphere (e.g., Argyre and Hellas). In addition, the occurrence of a southern storm zone in late winter and early spring is keyed particularly to the western hemisphere via orographic influences arising from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate fundamental differences amongst such simulations and these are described.

Traveling Weather Disturbances in Mars' Southern Extratropics: Sway of the Great Impact Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

2016-04-01

As on Earth, between late autumn and early spring on Mars middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal contrasts between the equator and poles (i.e., "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Within a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, such large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. These wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and moreover generalized tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water vapor and water-ice clouds) between low and high latitudes of the planet. The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This global circulation model imposes interactively lifted (and radiatively active) dust based on a threshold value of the instantaneous surface stress. Compared to observations, the model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a more dusty atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). In contrast to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense synoptically. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather disturbances are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars' full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating essential large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars' transient barotropic/baroclinic eddies are significantly influenced by the great impact basins of this hemisphere (e.g., Argyre and Hellas). In addition, the occurrence of a southern storm zone in late winter and early spring is keyed particularly to the western hemisphere via orographic influences arising from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate fundamental differences amongst such simulations and these are described.

Intra- and Interobserver Reliability of Three Classification Systems for Hallux Rigidus.

PubMed

Dillard, Sarita; Schilero, Christina; Chiang, Sharon; Pham, Peter

2018-04-18

There are over ten classification systems currently used in the staging of hallux rigidus. This results in confusion and inconsistency with radiographic interpretation and treatment. The reliability of hallux rigidus classification systems has not yet been tested. The purpose of this study was to evaluate intra- and interobserver reliability using three commonly used classifications for hallux rigidus. Twenty-one plain radiograph sets were presented to ten ACFAS board-certified foot and ankle surgeons. Each physician classified each radiograph based on clinical experience and knowledge according to the Regnauld, Roukis, and Hattrup and Johnson classification systems. The two-way mixed single-measure consistency intraclass correlation was used to calculate intra- and interrater reliability. The intrarater reliability of individual sets for the Roukis and Hattrup and Johnson classification systems was "fair to good" (Roukis, 0.62±0.19; Hattrup and Johnson, 0.62±0.28), whereas the intrarater reliability of individual sets for the Regnauld system bordered between "fair to good" and "poor" (0.43±0.24). The interrater reliability of the mean classification was "excellent" for all three classification systems. Conclusions Reliable and reproducible classification systems are essential for treatment and prognostic implications in hallux rigidus. In our study, Roukis classification system had the best intrarater reliability. Although there are various classification systems for hallux rigidus, our results indicate that all three of these classification systems show reliability and reproducibility.

Effects of gross motor function and manual function levels on performance-based ADL motor skills of children with spastic cerebral palsy.

PubMed

Park, Myoung-Ok

2017-02-01

[Purpose] The purpose of this study was to determine effects of Gross Motor Function Classification System and Manual Ability Classification System levels on performance-based motor skills of children with spastic cerebral palsy. [Subjects and Methods] Twenty-three children with cerebral palsy were included. The Assessment of Motor and Process Skills was used to evaluate performance-based motor skills in daily life. Gross motor function was assessed using Gross Motor Function Classification Systems, and manual function was measured using the Manual Ability Classification System. [Results] Motor skills in daily activities were significantly different on Gross Motor Function Classification System level and Manual Ability Classification System level. According to the results of multiple regression analysis, children categorized as Gross Motor Function Classification System level III scored lower in terms of performance based motor skills than Gross Motor Function Classification System level I children. Also, when analyzed with respect to Manual Ability Classification System level, level II was lower than level I, and level III was lower than level II in terms of performance based motor skills. [Conclusion] The results of this study indicate that performance-based motor skills differ among children categorized based on Gross Motor Function Classification System and Manual Ability Classification System levels of cerebral palsy.

Atmospheric observations for STS-1 landing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, R. E.; Arnold, J. E.; Wilson, G. S.

1981-01-01

A summary of synoptic weather conditions existing over the western United States is given for the time of shuttle descent into Edwards Air Force Base, California. The techniques and methods used to furnish synoptic atmospheric data at the surface and aloft for flight verification of the STS-1 orbiter during its descent into Edwards Air Force Base are specified. Examples of the upper level data set are given.

Interannual variations in fire weather, fire extent, and synoptic-scale circulation patterns in northern California and Oregon

Treesearch

Valerie Trouet; Alan H. Taylor; Andrew M. Carleton; Carl N. Skinner

2009-01-01

The Mediterranean climate region on the west coast of the United States is characterized by wet winters and dry summers, and by high fire activity. The importance of synoptic-scale circulation patterns (ENSO, PDO, PNA) on fire-climate interactions is evident in contemporary fire data sets and in pre-Euroamerican tree-ring-based fire records. We investigated how...

Can Different Teaching Strategies or Methods of Preparing Pupils Lead to Greater Improvements from GCSE to A Level Performance?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greatorex, Jackie; Malacova, Eva

2006-01-01

There is no published empirically based research on the new GCE synoptic assessment. Consequently no published research has been undertaken on its role, how it is taught or how pupils are prepared for the assessment. Neither is there a published evaluation of the effectiveness of teaching the synoptic units. It is these issues which are addressed…

Synoptic Control of Cross-Barrier Precipitation Ratios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mass, C.; Vargas, R.

2013-12-01

The substantial precipitation contrasts across mountain barriers, with windward enhancement on one side and leeward reduction on the other, have been the subject of several studies and reviews, both observational and theoretical. A lesser number of papers have examined the temporal variability of the orographic precipitation contrasts, including the origins of such variability. For example, Siler et al. (2013) examined the variability of the rain-shadow effect across the Cascade Mountains of Washington State. They found that the intensity of the winter-mean rain shadow was weaker in El Nino than La Nina years, and suggested that the strongest (weakest) rain shadows occurred for warm-sector (warm-frontal) situations. Dettinger et al. (2004) examined the synoptic controls of varying orographic precipitation ratios across the Sierra Nevada of California, with ratios defined by the difference in precipitation between the Central Valley and the western slopes of the barrier. They found increased ratios when the flow was more normal to the terrain and when vertical stability was less, with higher ratios after cold frontal passage compared to the warm sectors of midlatitude cyclones. The latter result appears to contradict the findings of Siler et al (2013). This presentation explores the temporal variations in the intensity of the precipitation gradient across the Cascade Mountains of Washington State and describes the synoptic conditions associated with periods in which precipitation is heavier on the western side, heavier on the eastern side, or nearly equal across the barrier. The talk will begin by summarizing the temporal variations of precipitation on the windward and leeward sides of the Cascades for a several year period. Segregating the hours when precipitation is substantially greater on the windward side, greater on the leeward side, or roughly equal, provides a series of dates used for synoptic composites for these three situations. It is shown that there are coherent and significant synoptic differences between the three precipitation ratio regimes, and these differences are illustrated for several case studies. For example, windward enhancement is greater after the passage of cold or occluded fronts, when stability is reduced and the flow is more westerly. Finally, the physical connection between synoptic flow and the changing cross-barrier precipitation contrasts are discussed.

78 FR 18252 - Prevailing Rate Systems; North American Industry Classification System Based Federal Wage System...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-26

...-AM78 Prevailing Rate Systems; North American Industry Classification System Based Federal Wage System... 2007 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes currently used in Federal Wage System... (OPM) issued a final rule (73 FR 45853) to update the 2002 North American Industry Classification...

Tectonics of the central Andes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bloom, Arthur L.; Isacks, Bryan L.; Fielding, Eric J.; Fox, Andrew N.; Gubbels, Timothy L.

1989-01-01

Acquisition of nearly complete coverage of Thematic Mapper data for the central Andes between about 15 to 34 degrees S has stimulated a comprehensive and unprecedented study of the interaction of tectonics and climate in a young and actively developing major continental mountain belt. The current state of the synoptic mapping of key physiographic, tectonic, and climatic indicators of the dynamics of the mountain/climate system are briefly reviewed.

Synoptic Scale Influences on Increasing Summertime Extreme Precipitation Events in the Northeastern United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collow, Allison; Bosilovich, Mike; Koster, Randal

2017-01-01

Over the past 15 years, the northeastern United States has seen a statistically significant increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events that is larger and more widespread than anywhere else in the country. This increase in events is more likely to be associated with frontal and low-pressure systems, rather than being caused by more tropical cyclones impacting the region.

Estimating the Spatial Distribution of Groundwater Age Using Synoptic Surveys of Environmental Tracers in Streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardner, W. P.

2017-12-01

A model which simulates tracer concentration in surface water as a function the age distribution of groundwater discharge is used to characterize groundwater flow systems at a variety of spatial scales. We develop the theory behind the model and demonstrate its application in several groundwater systems of local to regional scale. A 1-D stream transport model, which includes: advection, dispersion, gas exchange, first-order decay and groundwater inflow is coupled a lumped parameter model that calculates the concentration of environmental tracers in discharging groundwater as a function of the groundwater residence time distribution. The lumped parameters, which describe the residence time distribution, are allowed to vary spatially, and multiple environmental tracers can be simulated. This model allows us to calculate the longitudinal profile of tracer concentration in streams as a function of the spatially variable groundwater age distribution. By fitting model results to observations of stream chemistry and discharge, we can then estimate the spatial distribution of groundwater age. The volume of groundwater discharge to streams can be estimated using a subset of environmental tracers, applied tracers, synoptic stream gauging or other methods, and the age of groundwater then estimated using the previously calculated groundwater discharge and observed environmental tracer concentrations. Synoptic surveys of SF6, CFC's, 3H and 222Rn, along with measured stream discharge are used to estimate the groundwater inflow distribution and mean age for regional scale surveys of the Berland River in west-central Alberta. We find that groundwater entering the Berland has observable age, and that the age estimated using our stream survey is of similar order to limited samples from groundwater wells in the region. Our results show that the stream can be used as an easily accessible location to constrain the regional scale spatial distribution of groundwater age.

A SOFTWARE PACKAGE FOR UNSUPERVISED PATTERN RECOGNITION AND SYNOPTIC REPRESENTATION OF RESULTS: APPLICATION TO VOLCANIC TREMOR DATA OF MT ETNA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langer, H. K.; Falsaperla, S. M.; Behncke, B.; Messina, A.; Spampinato, S.

2009-12-01

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has found broad applications in volcano observatories worldwide with the aim of reducing volcanic hazard. The need to process larger and larger quantity of data makes indeed AI techniques appealing for monitoring purposes. Tools based on Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Machine have proved to be particularly successful in the classification of seismic events and volcanic tremor changes heralding eruptive activity, such as paroxysmal explosions and lava fountaining at Stromboli and Mt Etna, Italy (e.g., Falsaperla et al., 1996; Langer et al., 2009). Moving on from the excellent results obtained from these applications, we present KKAnalysis, a MATLAB based software which combines several unsupervised pattern classification methods, exploiting routines of the SOM Toolbox 2 for MATLAB (http://www.cis.hut.fi/projects/somtoolbox). KKAnalysis is based on Self Organizing Maps (SOM) and clustering methods consisting of K-Means, Fuzzy C-Means, and a scheme based on a metrics accounting for correlation between components of the feature vector. We show examples of applications of this tool to volcanic tremor data recorded at Mt Etna between 2007 and 2009. This time span - during which Strombolian explosions, 7 episodes of lava fountaining and effusive activity occurred - is particularly interesting, as it encompassed different states of volcanic activity (i.e., non-eruptive, eruptive according to different styles) for the unsupervised classifier to identify, highlighting their development in time. Even subtle changes in the signal characteristics allow the unsupervised classifier to recognize features belonging to the different classes and stages of volcanic activity. A convenient color-code representation shows up the temporal development of the different classes of signal, making this method extremely helpful for monitoring purposes and surveillance. Though being developed for volcanic tremor classification, KKAnalysis is generally applicable to any type of physical or chemical pattern, provided that feature vectors are given in numerical form. References: Falsaperla, S., S. Graziani, G. Nunnari, and S. Spampinato (1996). Automatic classification of volcanic earthquakes by using multy-layered neural networks. Natural Hazard, 13, 205-228. Langer, H., S. Falsaperla, M. Masotti, R. Campanini, S. Spampinato, and A. Messina (2008). Synopsis of supervised and unsupervised pattern classification techniques applied to volcanic tremor data at Mt Etna, Italy. Geophys. J. Int., doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04179.x.

Local Atmospheric Response to an Open-Ocean Polynya in a High-Resolution Climate Model

DOE PAGES

Weijer, Wilbert; Veneziani, Milena; Stössel, Achim; ...

2017-03-01

For this scientific paper, we study the atmospheric response to an open-ocean polynya in the Southern Ocean by analyzing the results from an atmospheric and oceanic synoptic-scale resolving Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation. While coarser-resolution versions of CESM generally do not produce open-ocean polynyas in the Southern Ocean, they do emerge and disappear on interannual timescales in the synoptic-scale simulation. This provides an ideal opportunity to study the polynya’s impact on the overlying and surrounding atmosphere. This has been pursued here by investigating the seasonal cycle of differences of surface and air-column variables between polynya and non-polynya years. Ourmore » results indicate significant local impacts on turbulent heat fluxes, precipitation, cloud characteristics, and radiative fluxes. In particular, we find that clouds over polynyas are optically thicker and higher than clouds over sea ice during non-polynya years. Although the lower albedo of polynyas significantly increases the net shortwave absorption, the enhanced cloud brightness tempers this increase by almost 50%. Also, in this model, enhanced longwave radiation emitted from the warmer surface of polynyas is balanced by stronger downwelling fluxes from the thicker cloud deck. Impacts are found to be sensitive to the synoptic wind direction. Strongest regional impacts are found when northeasterly winds cross the polynya and interact with katabatic winds. Finally, surface air pressure anomalies over the polynya are only found to be significant when cold, dry air masses strike over the polynya, i.e. in case of southerly winds.« less

Synoptic forcing of wind relaxations at Pt. Conception, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fewings, Melanie R.; Washburn, Libe; Dorman, Clive E.; Gotschalk, Christopher; Lombardo, Kelly

2016-08-01

Over the California Current upwelling system in summer, the prevailing upwelling-favorable winds episodically weaken (relax) or reverse direction for a few days. Near Pt. Conception, California, the wind usually does not reverse, but wind relaxation allows poleward oceanic coastal flow with ecological consequences. To determine the offshore extent and synoptic forcing of these wind relaxations, we formed composite averages of wind stress from the QuikSCAT satellite and atmospheric pressure from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) using 67 wind relaxations during summer 2000-2009. Wind relaxations at Pt. Conception are the third stage of an event sequence that repeatedly affects the west coast of North America in summer. First, 5-7 days before the wind weakens near Pt. Conception, the wind weakens or reverses off Oregon and northern California. Second, the upwelling-favorable wind intensifies along central California. Third, the wind relaxes at Pt. Conception, and the area of weakened winds extends poleward to northern California over 3-5 days. The NARR underestimates the wind stress within ˜200 km of coastal capes by a factor of 2. Wind relaxations at Pt. Conception are caused by offshore extension of the desert heat low. This synoptic forcing is related to event cycles that cause wind reversal as in Halliwell and Allen (1987) and Mass and Bond (1996), but includes weaker events. The wind relaxations extend ˜600 km offshore, similarly to the California-scale hydraulic expansion fan shaping the prevailing winds, and ˜1000 km alongshore, limited by an opposing pressure gradient force at Cape Mendocino.

Investigation of dust storms entering Western Iran using remotely sensed data and synoptic analysis.

PubMed

Boloorani, Ali D; Nabavi, Seyed O; Bahrami, Hosain A; Mirzapour, Fardin; Kavosi, Musa; Abasi, Esmail; Azizi, Rasoul

2014-01-01

One of the natural phenomena which have had considerable impacts on various regions of the world, including Iran, is "dust storm". In recent years, this phenomenon has taken on new dimensions in Iran and has changed from a local problem to a national issue. This study is an attempt to investigate the formation of the dust storms crossing the Western Iran. To find the sources of the dust storms entering Iran, first we examine three determined dust paths in the region and their temporal activities, using MODIS satellite images. Then, four regions were identified as dust sources through soil, land cover and wind data. Finally, atmospheric analyses are implemented to find synoptic patterns inducing dust storms. Source 1 has covered the region between the eastern banks of Euphrates and western banks of Tigris. Source 2 is in desert area of western and south-western Iraq. Finally source 3 is bounded in eastern and south-eastern deserts of Saudi Arabia called Rub-Al-Khali desert, or Empty Quarter. Moreover, south-eastern part of Iraq (source 4) was also determined as a secondary source which thickens the dust masses originating from the above mentioned sources. The study of synoptic circulations suggests that the dust storms originating from source 1 are formed due to the intense pressure gradient between the low-pressure system of Zagros and a high-pressure cell formed on Mediterranean Sea. The dust events in sources 2 and 3 are outcomes of the atmospheric circulations dominant in the cold period of the year in mid-latitudes.

Low-frequency climate anomalies, changes in synoptic scale circulation patterns and statistics of extreme events over south-east Poland during the Last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slawinska, J. M.; Bartoszek, K.; Gabriel, C. J.

2016-12-01

Long-term predictions of changes in extreme event frequency are of utmost importance due to their high societal and economic impact. Yet, current projections are of limited skills as they rely on satellite records that are relatively short compared to the timescale of interest, and also due to the presence of a significant anthropogenic trend superimposed onto other low-frequency variabilities. Novel simulations of past climates provide unique opportunity to separate external perturbations from internal climate anomalies and to attribute the latter to systematic changes in different types of synoptic scale circulation and distributions of high-frequency events. Here we study such changes by employing the Last Millennium Ensemble of climate simulations carried out with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, focusing in particular on decadal changes in frequency of extreme precipitation events over south-east Poland. We analyze low-frequency modulations of dominant patterns of synoptic scale circulations over Europe and their dependence on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, along with their coupling with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Moreover, we examine whether some decades of persistently anomalous statistics of extreme events can be attributed to externally forced (e.g., via volcanic eruptions) perturbations of the North Atlantic climate. In the end, we discuss the possible linkages and physical mechanisms connecting volcanic eruptions, low-frequency variabilities of North Atlantic climate and changes in statistics of high impact weather, and compare briefly our results with some historical and paleontological records.

Local Atmospheric Response to an Open-Ocean Polynya in a High-Resolution Climate Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weijer, Wilbert; Veneziani, Milena; Stössel, Achim

For this scientific paper, we study the atmospheric response to an open-ocean polynya in the Southern Ocean by analyzing the results from an atmospheric and oceanic synoptic-scale resolving Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation. While coarser-resolution versions of CESM generally do not produce open-ocean polynyas in the Southern Ocean, they do emerge and disappear on interannual timescales in the synoptic-scale simulation. This provides an ideal opportunity to study the polynya’s impact on the overlying and surrounding atmosphere. This has been pursued here by investigating the seasonal cycle of differences of surface and air-column variables between polynya and non-polynya years. Ourmore » results indicate significant local impacts on turbulent heat fluxes, precipitation, cloud characteristics, and radiative fluxes. In particular, we find that clouds over polynyas are optically thicker and higher than clouds over sea ice during non-polynya years. Although the lower albedo of polynyas significantly increases the net shortwave absorption, the enhanced cloud brightness tempers this increase by almost 50%. Also, in this model, enhanced longwave radiation emitted from the warmer surface of polynyas is balanced by stronger downwelling fluxes from the thicker cloud deck. Impacts are found to be sensitive to the synoptic wind direction. Strongest regional impacts are found when northeasterly winds cross the polynya and interact with katabatic winds. Finally, surface air pressure anomalies over the polynya are only found to be significant when cold, dry air masses strike over the polynya, i.e. in case of southerly winds.« less

Commercializing potassium terbium fluoride, KTF (KTb3F10) faraday crystals for high laser power optical isolator applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlichting, Wolfgang; Stevens, Kevin; Foundos, Greg; Payne, Alexis

2017-10-01

Many scientific lasers and increasingly industrial laser systems operate in <500W and kW output power regime, require high-performance optical isolators to prevent disruptive light feedback into the laser cavity. The optically active Faraday material is the key optical element inside the isolator. SYNOPTICS has been supplying the laser market with Terbium Gallium Garnet (TGG - Tb3Ga5O12) for many years. It is the most commonly used material for the 650-1100nm range and the key advantages for TGG include its cubic crystal structure for alignment free processing, little to no intrinsic birefringence, and ease of manufacture. However, for high-power laser applications TGG is limited by its absorption at 1064nm and its thermo-optic coefficient, dn/dT. Specifically, thermal lensing and depolarization effects become a limiting factor at high laser powers. While TGG absorption has improved significantly over the past few years, there is an intrinsic limit. Now, SYNOPTICS is commercializing the enhanced new crystal Potassium Terbium Fluoride KTF (KTb3F10) that exhibits much smaller nonlinear refractive index and thermo-optic coefficients, and still exhibits a Verdet constant near that of TGG. This cubic crystal has relatively low absorption and thermo-optic coefficients. It is now fully characterized and available for select production orders. At OPTIFAB in October 2017 we present recent results comparing the performance of KTF to TGG in optical isolators and show SYNOPTICS advances in large volume crystal growth and the production ramp up.

Solar system exploration from the Moon: Synoptic and comparative study of bodies in our Planetary system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bruston, P.; Mumma, M. J.

1994-01-01

An observational approach to Planetary Sciences and exploration from Earth applies to a quite limited number of targets, but most of these are spatially complex, and exhibit variability and evolution on a number of temporal scales which lie within the scope of possible observations. Advancing our understanding of the underlying physics requires the study of interactions between the various elements of such systems, and also requires study of the comparative response of both a given object to various conditions and of comparable objects to similar conditions. These studies are best conducted in 'campaigns', i.e. comprehensive programs combining simultaneous coherent observations of every interacting piece of the puzzle. The requirements include both imaging and spectroscopy over a wide spectral range, from UV to IR. While temporal simultaneity of operation in various modes is a key feature, these observations are also conducted over extended periods of time. The moon is a prime site offering long unbroken observation times and high positional stability, observations at small angular separation from the sun, comparative studies of planet Earth, and valuable technical advantages. A lunar observatory should become a central piece of any coherent set of planetary missions, supplying in-situ explorations with the synoptic and comparative data necessary for proper advance planning, correlative observations during the active exploratory phase, and follow-up studies of the target body or of related objects.

Large Synoptic Survey Telescope mount final design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callahan, Shawn; Gressler, William; Thomas, Sandrine J.; Gessner, Chuck; Warner, Mike; Barr, Jeff; Lotz, Paul J.; Schumacher, German; Wiecha, Oliver; Angeli, George; Andrew, John; Claver, Chuck; Schoening, Bill; Sebag, Jacques; Krabbendam, Victor; Neill, Doug; Hileman, Ed; Muller, Gary; Araujo, Constanza; Orden Martinez, Alfredo; Perezagua Aguado, Manuel; García-Marchena, Luis; Ruiz de Argandoña, Ismael; Romero, Francisco M.; Rodríguez, Ricardo; Carlos González, José; Venturini, Marco

2016-08-01

This paper describes the status and details of the large synoptic survey telescope1,2,3 mount assembly (TMA). On June 9th, 2014 the contract for the design and build of the large synoptic survey telescope mount assembly (TMA) was awarded to GHESA Ingeniería y Tecnología, S.A. and Asturfeito, S.A. The design successfully passed the preliminary design review on October 2, 2015 and the final design review January 29, 2016. This paper describes the detailed design by subsystem, analytical model results, preparations being taken to complete the fabrication, and the transportation and installation plans to install the mount on Cerro Pachón in Chile. This large project is the culmination of work by many people and the authors would like to thank everyone that has contributed to the success of this project.

Classification of Dust Days by Satellite Remotely Sensed Aerosol Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sorek-Hammer, M.; Cohen, A.; Levy, Robert C.; Ziv, B.; Broday, D. M.

2013-01-01

Considerable progress in satellite remote sensing (SRS) of dust particles has been seen in the last decade. From an environmental health perspective, such an event detection, after linking it to ground particulate matter (PM) concentrations, can proxy acute exposure to respirable particles of certain properties (i.e. size, composition, and toxicity). Being affected considerably by atmospheric dust, previous studies in the Eastern Mediterranean, and in Israel in particular, have focused on mechanistic and synoptic prediction, classification, and characterization of dust events. In particular, a scheme for identifying dust days (DD) in Israel based on ground PM10 (particulate matter of size smaller than 10 nm) measurements has been suggested, which has been validated by compositional analysis. This scheme requires information regarding ground PM10 levels, which is naturally limited in places with sparse ground-monitoring coverage. In such cases, SRS may be an efficient and cost-effective alternative to ground measurements. This work demonstrates a new model for identifying DD and non-DD (NDD) over Israel based on an integration of aerosol products from different satellite platforms (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)). Analysis of ground-monitoring data from 2007 to 2008 in southern Israel revealed 67 DD, with more than 88 percent occurring during winter and spring. A Classification and Regression Tree (CART) model that was applied to a database containing ground monitoring (the dependent variable) and SRS aerosol product (the independent variables) records revealed an optimal set of binary variables for the identification of DD. These variables are combinations of the following primary variables: the calendar month, ground-level relative humidity (RH), the aerosol optical depth (AOD) from MODIS, and the aerosol absorbing index (AAI) from OMI. A logistic regression that uses these variables, coded as binary variables, demonstrated 93.2 percent correct classifications of DD and NDD. Evaluation of the combined CART-logistic regression scheme in an adjacent geographical region (Gush Dan) demonstrated good results. Using SRS aerosol products for DD and NDD, identification may enable us to distinguish between health, ecological, and environmental effects that result from exposure to these distinct particle populations.

Understanding the use of standardized nursing terminology and classification systems in published research: A case study using the International Classification for Nursing Practice(®).

PubMed

Strudwick, Gillian; Hardiker, Nicholas R

2016-10-01

In the era of evidenced based healthcare, nursing is required to demonstrate that care provided by nurses is associated with optimal patient outcomes, and a high degree of quality and safety. The use of standardized nursing terminologies and classification systems are a way that nursing documentation can be leveraged to generate evidence related to nursing practice. Several widely-reported nursing specific terminologies and classifications systems currently exist including the Clinical Care Classification System, International Classification for Nursing Practice(®), Nursing Intervention Classification, Nursing Outcome Classification, Omaha System, Perioperative Nursing Data Set and NANDA International. However, the influence of these systems on demonstrating the value of nursing and the professions' impact on quality, safety and patient outcomes in published research is relatively unknown. This paper seeks to understand the use of standardized nursing terminology and classification systems in published research, using the International Classification for Nursing Practice(®) as a case study. A systematic review of international published empirical studies on, or using, the International Classification for Nursing Practice(®) were completed using Medline and the Cumulative Index for Nursing and Allied Health Literature. Since 2006, 38 studies have been published on the International Classification for Nursing Practice(®). The main objectives of the published studies have been to validate the appropriateness of the classification system for particular care areas or populations, further develop the classification system, or utilize it to support the generation of new nursing knowledge. To date, most studies have focused on the classification system itself, and a lesser number of studies have used the system to generate information about the outcomes of nursing practice. Based on the published literature that features the International Classification for Nursing Practice, standardized nursing terminology and classification systems appear to be well developed for various populations, settings and to harmonize with other health-related terminology systems. However, the use of the systems to generate new nursing knowledge, and to validate nursing practice is still in its infancy. There is an opportunity now to utilize the well-developed systems in their current state to further what is know about nursing practice, and how best to demonstrate improvements in patient outcomes through nursing care. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stable Isotope Analysis of Precipitation Samples Obtained via Crowdsourcing Reveals the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Superstorm Sandy

PubMed Central

Good, Stephen P.; Mallia, Derek V.; Lin, John C.; Bowen, Gabriel J.

2014-01-01

Extra-tropical cyclones, such as 2012 Superstorm Sandy, pose a significant climatic threat to the northeastern United Sates, yet prediction of hydrologic and thermodynamic processes within such systems is complicated by their interaction with mid-latitude water patterns as they move poleward. Fortunately, the evolution of these systems is also recorded in the stable isotope ratios of storm-associated precipitation and water vapor, and isotopic analysis provides constraints on difficult-to-observe cyclone dynamics. During Superstorm Sandy, a unique crowdsourced approach enabled 685 precipitation samples to be obtained for oxygen and hydrogen isotopic analysis, constituting the largest isotopic sampling of a synoptic-scale system to date. Isotopically, these waters span an enormous range of values (21‰ for O, 160‰ for H) and exhibit strong spatiotemporal structure. Low isotope ratios occurred predominantly in the west and south quadrants of the storm, indicating robust isotopic distillation that tracked the intensity of the storm's warm core. Elevated values of deuterium-excess (25‰) were found primarily in the New England region after Sandy made landfall. Isotope mass balance calculations and Lagrangian back-trajectory analysis suggest that these samples reflect the moistening of dry continental air entrained from a mid-latitude trough. These results demonstrate the power of rapid-response isotope monitoring to elucidate the structure and dynamics of water cycling within synoptic-scale systems and improve our understanding of storm evolution, hydroclimatological impacts, and paleo-storm proxies. PMID:24618882

Rawinsonde sounding data and synoptic conditions for the CCOPE-VAS experiment, July 1981

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Henry, W. K.

1982-01-01

During the cooperative convective precipitation experiment, eight times were selected as VISSR atmospheric sounder (VAS) observation periods. A synoptic analysis of the surface and the 850, 700, 500, 300, and 200 maps for those eight periods. The satellite and radar data for those periods are included with the analyses. There were five rawinsonde stations in eastern Montana which made extra soundings for the VAS periods.

Waterspout Forecasting Method Over the Eastern Adriatic Using a High-Resolution Numerical Weather Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renko, Tanja; Ivušić, Sarah; Telišman Prtenjak, Maja; Šoljan, Vinko; Horvat, Igor

2018-03-01

In this study, a synoptic and mesoscale analysis was performed and Szilagyi's waterspout forecasting method was tested on ten waterspout events in the period of 2013-2016. Data regarding waterspout occurrences were collected from weather stations, an online survey at the official website of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia and eyewitness reports from newspapers and the internet. Synoptic weather conditions were analyzed using surface pressure fields, 500 hPa level synoptic charts, SYNOP reports and atmospheric soundings. For all observed waterspout events, a synoptic type was determined using the 500 hPa geopotential height chart. The occurrence of lightning activity was determined from the LINET lightning database, and waterspouts were divided into thunderstorm-related and "fair weather" ones. Mesoscale characteristics (with a focus on thermodynamic instability indices) were determined using the high-resolution (500 m grid length) mesoscale numerical weather model and model results were compared with the available observations. Because thermodynamic instability indices are usually insufficient for forecasting waterspout activity, the performance of the Szilagyi Waterspout Index (SWI) was tested using vertical atmospheric profiles provided by the mesoscale numerical model. The SWI successfully forecasted all waterspout events, even the winter events. This indicates that the Szilagyi's waterspout prognostic method could be used as a valid prognostic tool for the eastern Adriatic.

The Palomar-Quest Synoptic Sky Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahabal, A.; Djorgovski, S. G.; Graham, M.; Williams, R.; Granett, B.; Bogosavljevic, M.; Baltay, C.; Rabinowitz, D.; Bauer, A.; Andrews, P.; Morgan, N.; Snyder, J.; Ellman, N.; Brunner, R.; Rengstorf, A. W.; Musser, J.; Gebhard, M.; Mufson, S.

2003-12-01

Exploration of the time domain is rapidly becoming one of the most exciting areas of astronomy. The Palomar-Quest synoptic sky survey has recently started producing a steady stream of data. In driftscan mode the survey covers Declination strips 4.6 deg wide, between -25 and +30 deg, at least twice in each of the two filter sets, one Johnson-Cousin's UBRI and one SDSS r'i'z'z', at a rate of about 500 square degrees per night. The scans are separated by time baselines of days to months, and we anticipate that they will extend to multi-year time scales over the next 3 to 5 years or beyond. The unprecedented amount of data makes this the largest synoptic survey of its kind both in terms of area covered and depth. We would search for both variable and transient objects, including supernovae, variable AGN, GRB orphan afterglows, cataclysmic variables, interesting stellar flares, novae, other types of variable stars, and possibly even entirely new types of objects or phenomena. We are in the process of designing a real-time data reduction pipeline which would enable a rapid discovery and spectroscopic follow-up of transients and other intersting objects. This survey can be seen as a precursor for the even larger synoptic sky surveys with LSST and PanSTARRS.

Effects of flow regime on metal concentrations and the attainment of water quality standards in a remediated stream reach, Butte, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runkel, Robert L.; Kimball, Briant A.; Nimick, David A.; Walton-Day, Katherine

2016-01-01

Low-flow synoptic sampling campaigns are often used as the primary tool to characterize watersheds affected by mining. Although such campaigns are an invaluable part of site characterization, investigations which focus solely on low-flow conditions may yield misleading results. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate this point and elucidate the mechanisms responsible for the release of metals during rainfall runoff. This objective is addressed using data from diel and synoptic sampling campaigns conducted over a two-day period. Low-flow synoptic sampling results indicate that concentrations of most constituents meet aquatic standards. This finding is in contrast to findings from a diel sampling campaign that captured dramatic increases in concentrations during rainfall runoff. Concentrations during the rising limb of the hydrograph were 2–23 times concentrations observed during synoptic sampling (most increases were >10-fold), remaining elevated during the receding limb of the hydrograph to produce a clockwise hysteresis loop. Hydrologic mechanisms responsible for the release of metals include increased transport due to resuspension of streambed solids, erosion of alluvial tailings, and overland flow. Rainfall also elevated the alluvial groundwater table and increased infiltration through the vadose zone, likely resulting in dissolution from alluvial tailings that were dry prior to the event.

Ecological Land Classification: Applications to Identify the Productive Potential of Southern Forests

Treesearch

Dennis L. Mengel; D. Thompson Tew; [Editors

1991-01-01

Eighteen papers representing four categories-Regional Overviews; Classification System Development; Classification System Interpretation; Mapping/GIS Applications in Classification Systems-present the state of the art in forest-land classification and evaluation in the South. In addition, nine poster papers are presented.

Analysis of meteorology and emission in haze episode prevalence over mountain-bounded region for early warning.

PubMed

Kim Oanh, Nguyen Thi; Leelasakultum, Ketsiri

2011-05-01

This study investigated the main causes of haze episodes in the northwestern Thailand to provide early warning and prediction. In an absence of emission input data required for chemical transport modeling to predict the haze, the climatological approach in combination with statistical analysis was used. An automatic meteorological classification scheme was developed using regional meteorological station data of 8years (2001-2008) which classified the prevailing synoptic patterns over Northern Thailand into 4 patterns. Pattern 2, occurring with high frequency in March, was found to associate with the highest levels of 24h PM(10) in Chiangmai, the largest city in Northern Thailand. Typical features of this pattern were the dominance of thermal lows over India, Western China and Northern Thailand with hot, dry and stagnant air in Northern Thailand. March 2007, the month with the most severe haze episode in Chiangmai, was found to have a high frequency of occurrence of pattern 2 coupled with the highest emission intensities from biomass open burning. Backward trajectories showed that, on haze episode days, air masses passed over the region of dense biomass fire hotspots before arriving at Chiangmai. A stepwise regression model was developed to predict 24h PM(10) for days of meteorology pattern 2 using February-April data of 2007-2009 and tested with 2004-2010 data. The model performed satisfactorily for the model development dataset (R(2)=87%) and test dataset (R(2)=81%), which appeared to be superior over a simple persistence regression of 24h PM(10) (R(2)=76%). Our developed model had an accuracy over 90% for the categorical forecast of PM(10)>120μg/m(3). The episode warning procedure would identify synoptic pattern 2 and predict 24h PM(10) in Chiangmai 24h in advance. This approach would be applicable for air pollution episode management in other areas with complex terrain where similar conditions exist. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Synoptic- and Planetary-Scale Analysis of Widespread North American Ice Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCray, C.; Gyakum, J. R.; Atallah, E.

2017-12-01

Freezing rain can have devastating impacts, particularly when it persists for many hours. Predicting the precise temperature stratification necessary for long duration freezing rain events remains an important forecast challenge. To better elucidate the conditions responsible for the most severe events, we concentrate on surface observations of long-duration (6 or more hours) freezing rain events over North America from 1979-2016. Furthermore, we analyze cases in which multiple stations observe long-duration events simultaneously. Following these cases over successive days allows us to generate maps of freezing rain "tracks." We then categorize recurring geographic patterns to examine the meteorological conditions leading to these events. While freezing rain is most frequently observed in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada, long-duration events have affected areas as far south as the Gulf Coast. Notably, a disproportionately large number of very long duration (18 or more hours) events have occurred in the Southern Plains states relative to the climatological annual frequency of freezing rain there. Classification of individual cases shows that most of these very long duration events are associated with a recurring pattern which produces freezing rain along a southwest-northeast swath from Texas/Oklahoma into the northeastern U.S. and eastern Canada. Storms classified within this pattern include the January 1998 and December 2013 ice storms. While this pattern is the most widespread, additional spatially extensive patterns occur. One of these areas extends from the Southern Plains eastward along the Gulf Coast to Georgia and the Carolinas. A third category of events extends from the Upper Midwest into the northeastern U.S. and southeastern Canada. The expansive areal extent and long duration of these events make them especially problematic. An analysis of the planetary- to synoptic-scale settings responsible for these cases and the differences among individual storms is performed to provide forecasters with additional tools/insight towards the prediction of these damaging weather events.

Surface ozone concentrations in Europe: Links with the regional-scale atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davies, T. D.; Kelly, P. M.; Low, P. S.; Pierce, C. E.

1992-06-01

Daily surface ozone observations from 1978 (1976 for some analyses) to 1988 for Bottesford (United Kingdom), Cabauw, Kloosterburen (The Netherlands), Hohenpeissenberg, Neuglobsow, Hamburg, and Arkona (Germany) are used to analyze links between surface ozone variations and the atmospheric circulation. A daily Europe-wide synoptic classification highlights marked differences between surface ozone/meteorology relationships in summer and winter. These relationships are characterized by correlations between daily surface ozone concentrations at each station and a local subregional surface pressure gradient (a wind speed index). Although there are geographical variations, which are explicable in terms of regional climatology, there are distinct annual cycles. In summer, the surface ozone/wind speed relationship exhibits the expected negative sign; however, in winter, the relationship is, in the main, strongly positive, especially at those stations which are more influenced by the vigorous westerlies. Spring and autumn exhibit negative, positive, or transitional (between summer and winter) behavior, depending on geographical position. It is suggested that these relationships reflect the importance of vertical exchange from the free troposphere to the surface in the nonsummer months. Composite surface pressure patterns and surface pressure anomaly (from the long-term mean) patterns associated with high surface ozone concentrations on daily and seasonal time scales are consistent with the surface ozone/wind speed relationships. Moreover, they demonstrate that high surface ozone concentrations, in a climatological time frame, can be associated with mean surface pressure patterns which have a synoptic reality and are robust. Such an approach may be useful in interpreting past variations in surface ozone and may help to isolate the effect of human activity. It is also possible that assessments can be made of the effect of projected future changes in the atmospheric circulation. This potential is illustrated by the fact that up to 65% of the interannual variance in 6-month mean surface ozone concentrations can be explained by the subregional wind speed index.

Relating isotopic composition of precipitation to atmospheric patterns and local moisture recycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Logan, K. E.; Brunsell, N. A.; Nippert, J. B.

2016-12-01

Local land management practices such as irrigation significantly alter surface evapotranspiration (ET), regional boundary layer development, and potentially modify precipitation likelihood and amount. How strong this local forcing is in comparison to synoptic-scale dynamics, and how much ET is recycled locally as precipitation are areas of great uncertainty and are especially important when trying to forecast the impact of local land management strategies on drought mitigation. Stable isotope analysis has long been a useful tool for tracing movement throughout the water cycle. In this study, reanalysis data and stable isotope samples of precipitation events are used to estimate the contribution of local moisture recycling to precipitation at the Konza Prairie LTER - located in the Great Plains, downwind of intensive agricultural areas. From 2001 to 2014 samples of all precipitation events over 5mm were collected and 18O and D isotopes measured. Comparison of observed precipitation totals and MERRA and ERA-interim reanalysis totals is used to diagnose periods of strong local moisture contribution (especially from irrigation) to precipitation. Large discrepancies in precipitation between observation and reanalysis, particularly MERRA, tend to follow dry periods during the growing season, presumably because while ERA-Interim adjusts soil moisture using observed surface temperature and humidity, MERRA includes no such local soil moisture adjustment and therefore lacks potential precipitation feedbacks induced by irrigation. The δ18O and δD signature of local irrigation recycling is evaluated using these incongruous observations. Self-organizing maps (SOM) are then used to identify a comprehensive range of synoptic conditions that result in precipitation at Konza LTER. Comparison of isotopic signature and SOM classification of rainfall events allows for identification of the primary moisture source and estimation of the contribution of locally recycled moisture. The climatology of precipitation source and changes in the influence of local moisture over the course of 14 years of observation are explored.

Characterization of the Cloud-Topped Boundary Layer at the Synoptic Scale Using AVHRR Observations during the SEMAPHORE Experiment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathieu, A.; Sèze, G.; Lahellec, A.; Guerin, C.; Weill, A.

2003-12-01

Satellite platforms NOAA-11 and -12 Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data are used during the daytime to study large sheets of stratocumulus over the North Atlantic Ocean. The application concerns an anticyclonic period of the Structure des Echanges Mer Atmosphère, Propriétés des Hétérogénéités Océaniques: Recherché Expérimentale (SEMAPHORE) campaign (10 17 November 1993). In the region of interest, the satellite images are recorded under large solar zenith angles. Extending the SEMAPHORE area, a region of about 3000 × 3000 km2 is studied to characterize the atmospheric boundary layer. A statistical cloud classification method is applied to discriminate for low-level and optically thick clouds. For AVHRR pixels covered with thick clouds, brightness temperatures are used to evaluate the boundary layer cloud-top temperature (CTT). The objective is to obtain accurate CTT maps for evaluation of a global model. In this application, the full-resolution fields are reduced to match model grid size. An estimate of overall temperature uncertainty associated with each grid point is also derived, which incorporates subgrid variability of the fields and quality of the temperature retrieval. Results are compared with the SEMAPHORE campaign measurements. A comparison with “DX” products obtained with the same dataset, but at lower resolution, is also presented. The authors claim that such instantaneous CTT maps could be as intensively used as classical SST maps, and both could be efficiently complemented with gridpoint error-bar maps. They may be used for multiple applications: (i) to provide a means to improve numerical weather prediction and climatological reanalyses, (ii) to represent a boundary layer global characterization to analyze the synoptic situation of field experiments, and (iii) to allow validation and to test development of large-scale and mesoscale models.

Development of a Water Clarity Index for the Southeastern U.S. As a Climate Indicator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, S. C.; Hu, C.; Lee, C. C.; Barnes, B.; Pirhalla, D.; Ransi, V.; Shein, K. A.

2014-12-01

A common index of water quality is water clarity, which can be estimated by measuring the diffuse attenuation coefficient for downwelling irradiance (Kd). Kd estimates the availability of light to marine organisms at various depths. Marine habitats, including such species as coral and seagrass, can be negatively affected by extreme episodes of sediment suspension, where water clarity is reduced and little light penetrates. Evidence of increased stress on coastal ecosystems exists, partially due to climate change, yet a systematic analysis of extreme events and trends is difficult due to limited data. To address this concern, we have developed as a potential climate indicator a Kd-Index for nine regions along the US coast of the Gulf of Mexico, in which Kd values have been standardized over time and space to allow for a more holistic assessment of climate drivers and their trends. Variability in the Kd-Index is then assessed with regard to occurrences of surface weather types (using the Spatial Synoptic Classification), a synoptic climatology of mean sea-level-pressure patterns across the region, along with heavy precipitation events. Kd can be estimated from MODIS and SeaWiFS observations from 1997 to date; an earlier period of satellite observations from 1978-86 is also available. A non-linear autoregressive neural network model with external input (NARX) is used to develop the historical relationship between Kd-Index and atmospheric conditions, and then this model is used to simulate a full time series from 1948 to 2013. The modeled data set is strongly correlated with observations, with correlations above 0.8 for many regions. Hit rates of extreme Kd-Index values - those which would most likely be associated with a negative environmental impact - exceed 70% in some regions. Across the full data set, long term trends vary slightly across regions but are generally small. Trends in extreme events appear to be more consistently increasing across the domain.

The influence of the synoptic regime on stable water isotopes in precipitation at Dome C, East Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlosser, Elisabeth; Dittmann, Anna; Stenni, Barbara; Powers, Jordan G.; Manning, Kevin W.; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Valt, Mauro; Cagnati, Anselmo; Grigioni, Paolo; Scarchilli, Claudio

2017-10-01

The correct derivation of paleotemperatures from ice cores requires exact knowledge of all processes involved before and after the deposition of snow and the subsequent formation of ice. At the Antarctic deep ice core drilling site Dome C, a unique data set of daily precipitation amount, type, and stable water isotope ratios is available that enables us to study in detail atmospheric processes that influence the stable water isotope ratio of precipitation. Meteorological data from both automatic weather station and a mesoscale atmospheric model were used to investigate how different atmospheric flow patterns determine the precipitation parameters. A classification of synoptic situations that cause precipitation at Dome C was established and, together with back-trajectory calculations, was utilized to estimate moisture source areas. With the resulting source area conditions (wind speed, sea surface temperature, and relative humidity) as input, the precipitation stable isotopic composition was modeled using the so-called Mixed Cloud Isotope Model (MCIM). The model generally underestimates the depletion of 18O in precipitation, which was not improved by using condensation temperature rather than inversion temperature. Contrary to the assumption widely used in ice core studies, a more northern moisture source does not necessarily mean stronger isotopic fractionation. This is due to the fact that snowfall events at Dome C are often associated with warm air advection due to amplification of planetary waves, which considerably increases the site temperature and thus reduces the temperature difference between source area and deposition site. In addition, no correlation was found between relative humidity at the moisture source and the deuterium excess in precipitation. The significant difference in the isotopic signal of hoarfrost and diamond dust was shown to disappear after removal of seasonality. This study confirms the results of an earlier study carried out at Dome Fuji with a shorter data set using the same methods.

Association of weather and air pollution interactions on daily mortality in 12 Canadian cities.

PubMed

Vanos, J K; Cakmak, S; Kalkstein, L S; Yagouti, Abderrahmane

It has been well established that both meteorological attributes and air pollution concentrations affect human health outcomes. We examined all cause nonaccident mortality relationships for 28 years (1981-2008) in relation to air pollution and synoptic weather type (encompassing air mass) data in 12 Canadian cities. This study first determines the likelihood of summertime extreme air pollution events within weather types using spatial synoptic classification. Second, it examines the modifying effect of weather types on the relative risk of mortality (RR) due to daily concentrations of air pollution (nitrogen dioxide, ozone, sulfur dioxide, and particulate matter <2.5 μm). We assess both single- and two-pollutant interactions to determine dependent and independent pollutant effects using the relatively new time series technique of distributed lag nonlinear modeling (DLNM). Results display dry tropical (DT) and moist tropical plus (MT+) weathers to result in a fourfold and twofold increased likelihood, respectively, of an extreme pollution event (top 5 % of pollution concentrations throughout the 28 years) occurring. We also demonstrate statistically significant effects of single-pollutant exposure on mortality ( p  < 0.05) to be dependent on summer weather type, where stronger results occur in dry moderate (fair weather) and DT or MT+ weather types. The overall average single-effect RR increases due to pollutant exposure within DT and MT+ weather types are 14.9 and 11.9 %, respectively. Adjusted exposures (two-way pollutant effect estimates) generally results in decreased RR estimates, indicating that the pollutants are not independent. Adjusting for ozone significantly lowers 67 % of the single-pollutant RR estimates and reduces model variability, which demonstrates that ozone significantly controls a portion of the mortality signal from the model. Our findings demonstrate the mortality risks of air pollution exposure to differ by weather type, with increased accuracy obtained when accounting for interactive effects through adjustment for dependent pollutants using a DLNM.

Liverpool telescope 2: a new robotic facility for rapid transient follow-up

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Copperwheat, C. M.; Steele, I. A.; Barnsley, R. M.; Bates, S. D.; Bersier, D.; Bode, M. F.; Carter, D.; Clay, N. R.; Collins, C. A.; Darnley, M. J.; Davis, C. J.; Gutierrez, C. M.; Harman, D. J.; James, P. A.; Knapen, J. H.; Kobayashi, S.; Marchant, J. M.; Mazzali, P. A.; Mottram, C. J.; Mundell, C. G.; Newsam, A.; Oscoz, A.; Palle, E.; Piascik, A.; Rebolo, R.; Smith, R. J.

2015-03-01

The Liverpool Telescope is one of the world's premier facilities for time domain astronomy. The time domain landscape is set to radically change in the coming decade, with synoptic all-sky surveys such as LSST providing huge numbers of transient detections on a nightly basis; transient detections across the electromagnetic spectrum from other major facilities such as SVOM, SKA and CTA; and the era of `multi-messenger astronomy', wherein astrophysical events are detected via non-electromagnetic means, such as neutrino or gravitational wave emission. We describe here our plans for the Liverpool Telescope 2: a new robotic telescope designed to capitalise on this new era of time domain astronomy. LT2 will be a 4-metre class facility co-located with the Liverpool Telescope at the Observatorio del Roque de Los Muchachos on the Canary island of La Palma. The telescope will be designed for extremely rapid response: the aim is that the telescope will take data within 30 seconds of the receipt of a trigger from another facility. The motivation for this is twofold: firstly it will make it a world-leading facility for the study of fast fading transients and explosive phenomena discovered at early times. Secondly, it will enable large-scale programmes of low-to-intermediate resolution spectral classification of transients to be performed with great efficiency. In the target-rich environment of the LSST era, minimising acquisition overheads will be key to maximising the science gains from any follow-up programme. The telescope will have a diverse instrument suite which is simultaneously mounted for automatic changes, but it is envisaged that the primary instrument will be an intermediate resolution, optical/infrared spectrograph for scientific exploitation of transients discovered with the next generation of synoptic survey facilities. In this paper we outline the core science drivers for the telescope, and the requirements for the optical and mechanical design.

42 CFR 412.513 - Patient classification system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Patient classification system. 412.513 Section 412... Long-Term Care Hospitals § 412.513 Patient classification system. (a) Classification methodology. CMS...-DRGs. (1) The classification of a particular discharge is based, as appropriate, on the patient's age...

42 CFR 412.513 - Patient classification system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 42 Public Health 2 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Patient classification system. 412.513 Section 412... Long-Term Care Hospitals § 412.513 Patient classification system. (a) Classification methodology. CMS...-DRGs. (1) The classification of a particular discharge is based, as appropriate, on the patient's age...

Extracting meaning from astronomical telegrams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, Matthew; Conwill, L.; Djorgovski, S. G.; Mahabal, A.; Donalek, C.; Drake, A.

2011-01-01

The rapidly emerging field of time domain astronomy is one of the most exciting and vibrant new research frontiers, ranging in scientific scope from studies of the Solar System to extreme relativistic astrophysics and cosmology. It is being enabled by a new generation of large synoptic digital sky surveys - LSST, PanStarrs, CRTS - that cover large areas of sky repeatedly, looking for transient objects and phenomena. One of the biggest challenges facing these is the automated classification of transient events, a process that needs machine-processible astronomical knowledge. Semantic technologies enable the formal representation of concepts and relations within a particular domain. ATELs (http://www.astronomerstelegram.org) are a commonly-used means for reporting and commenting upon new astronomical observations of transient sources (supernovae, stellar outbursts, blazar flares, etc). However, they are loose and unstructured and employ scientific natural language for description: this makes automated processing of them - a necessity within the next decade with petascale data rates - a challenge. Nevertheless they represent a potentially rich corpus of information that could lead to new and valuable insights into transient phenomena. This project lies in the cutting-edge field of astrosemantics, a branch of astroinformatics, which applies semantic technologies to astronomy. The ATELs have been used to develop an appropriate concept scheme - a representation of the information they contain - for transient astronomy using aspects of natural language processing. We demonstrate that it is possible to infer the subject of an ATEL from the vocabulary used and to identify previously unassociated reports.

Long-Range Operational Military Forecasts for Afghanistan

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

the winter and early spring months with eastward–moving extratropical synoptic storms , such as the Cyprus and Genoa low pressure systems out of the...significant impact on the storm track, temperature, and precipitation across the Northern Atlantic and into Europe and the Mediterranean. The positive...advection of moisture out of the Arabian Sea or out of central Asia. The NAO impacts on 850hPa temperatures are associated with variations in storm

Integrated synoptic surveys using an autonomous underwater vehicle and manned boats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jackson, P. Ryan

2013-01-01

Traditional surface-water surveys are being combined with autonomous technology to produce integrated surveys of bathymetry, water quality, and velocity in inland lakes and reservoirs. This new technology provides valuable, high-resolution, integrated data that allow a systems-based approach to understanding common environmental problems. This fact sheet presents several example applications of integrated surveys within inland lakes and coastal Lake Michigan and Lake Erie.

A geomorphologist's dream come true: synoptic high resolution river bathymetry with the latest generation of airborne dual wavelength lidar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lague, Dimitri; Launeau, Patrick; Michon, Cyril; Gouraud, Emmanuel; Juge, Cyril; Gentile, William; Hubert-Moy, Laurence; Crave, Alain

2016-04-01

Airborne, terrestrial lidar and Structure From Motion have dramatically changed our approach of geomorphology, from low density/precision data, to a wealth of data with a precision adequate to actually measure topographic change across multiple scales, and its relation to vegetation. Yet, an important limitation in the context of fluvial geomorphology has been the inability of these techniques to penetrate water due to the use of NIR laser wavelengths or to the complexity of accounting for water refraction in SFM. Coastal bathymetric systems using a green lidar can penetrate clear water up to 50 m but have a resolution too coarse and deployment costs that are prohibitive for fluvial research and management. After early prototypes of narrow aperture green lidar (e.g., EEARL NASA), major lidar manufacturer are now releasing dual wavelength laser system that offer water penetration consistent with shallow fluvial bathymetry at very high resolution (> 10 pts/m²) and deployment costs that makes the technology, finally accessible. This offers unique opportunities to obtain synoptic high resolution, high precision data for academic research as well as for fluvial environment management (flood risk mapping, navigability,…). In this presentation, we report on the deployment of the latest generation Teledyne-Optech Titan dual-wavelength lidar (1064 nm + 532 nm) owned by the University of Nantes and Rennes. The instrument has been deployed over several fluvial and lacustrine environments in France. We present results and recommendation on how to optimize the bathymetric cover as a function of aerial and aquatic vegetation cover and the hydrology regime of the river. In the surveyed rivers, the penetration depth varies from 0.5 to 4 m with discrete echoes (i.e., onboard detection), heavily impacted by water clarity and bottom reflectance. Simple post-processing of the full waveform record allows to recover an additional 20 % depth. As for other lidar techniques, the main challenge lies in the post-processing of the massive amount of data generated by the instrument (typically 10 billions points for 60 km of rivers). Yet the very high density of the raw point cloud data (40 pts/m² on topography, 20 pts/m² on bathymetry) and the full waveform nature of the signal offers new opportunities to develop classification and change detection algorithms. In this context, we present a new automated workflow to extract automatically the water surface (a critical aspect for refraction correction) and submerged data in highly complex fluvial environments based on a combined analysis of the 1064 nm and 532 nm channels. We conclude that topo-bathymetric lidar is getting close to being an operational technique for fluvial bathymetry offering a vast range of applications in hydrology, ecohydrology, geomorphology and river management.

Synoptic-scale fire weather conditions in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayasaka, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Hiroshi L.; Bieniek, Peter A.

2016-09-01

Recent concurrent widespread fires in Alaska are evaluated to assess their associated synoptic-scale weather conditions. Several periods of high fire activity from 2003 to 2015 were identified using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) hotspot data by considering the number of daily hotspots and their continuity. Fire weather conditions during the top six periods of high fire activity in the fire years of 2004, 2005, 2009, and 2015 were analyzed using upper level (500 hPa) and near surface level (1000 hPa) atmospheric reanalysis data. The top four fire-periods occurred under similar unique high-pressure fire weather conditions related to Rossby wave breaking (RWB). Following the ignition of wildfires, fire weather conditions related to RWB events typically result in two hotspot peaks occurring before and after high-pressure systems move from south to north across Alaska. A ridge in the Gulf of Alaska resulted in southwesterly wind during the first hotspot peak. After the high-pressure system moved north under RWB conditions, the Beaufort Sea High developed and resulted in relatively strong easterly wind in Interior Alaska and a second (largest) hotspot peak during each fire period. Low-pressure-related fire weather conditions occurring under cyclogenesis in the Arctic also resulted in high fire activity under southwesterly wind with a single large hot-spot peak.

Efforts to Overcome Difficulties in a Higher Education Meteorology Department Institution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mota, G. V.; Souza, J. R.; Ribeiro, J. B.; Souza, E. B.; Gomes, N. V.; Oliveira, R. A.; Ameida, W. G.; Chagas, G. O.; Yoksas, T.; Spangler, T.; Cutrim, E.

2007-05-01

The development of cyberinfrastructure in higher education meteorology departments has become a key requirement to better qualify their students and develop scientific research. The authors present their efforts to overcome low budget, lack of personnel, and other difficulties in the Department of Meteorology, Universidade Federal do Pará (UFPA), to participate in international collaborations for sharing hydro-meteorological data, tools and technological systems. Some important steps towards a consolidated integration of the group with the international partnership are discussed, and three are highlighted: (a) the resources from the Unidata's Equipment Award (supported by the National Science Foundation - NSF) and equipment donated in cooperation with the COMET and Meteoforum projects; (b) the interaction of the local team making its project resources available to the community; and (c) the involvement of students with the programs and the cyberinfrastructure available locally. Some positive results can be observed, such as the ability for students of Synoptic Meteorology II class to not only see static meteorological fields on the web, but actually build themselves regional and real-time synoptic products from the data received through Unidata's Internet Data Distribution (IDD) system. Moreover, the UFPA's group intends to improve its infrastructure to expand the access of real-time data and products to other members of the local meteorological community.

Pathohistological classification systems in gastric cancer: Diagnostic relevance and prognostic value

PubMed Central

Berlth, Felix; Bollschweiler, Elfriede; Drebber, Uta; Hoelscher, Arnulf H; Moenig, Stefan

2014-01-01

Several pathohistological classification systems exist for the diagnosis of gastric cancer. Many studies have investigated the correlation between the pathohistological characteristics in gastric cancer and patient characteristics, disease specific criteria and overall outcome. It is still controversial as to which classification system imparts the most reliable information, and therefore, the choice of system may vary in clinical routine. In addition to the most common classification systems, such as the Laurén and the World Health Organization (WHO) classifications, other authors have tried to characterize and classify gastric cancer based on the microscopic morphology and in reference to the clinical outcome of the patients. In more than 50 years of systematic classification of the pathohistological characteristics of gastric cancer, there is no sole classification system that is consistently used worldwide in diagnostics and research. However, several national guidelines for the treatment of gastric cancer refer to the Laurén or the WHO classifications regarding therapeutic decision-making, which underlines the importance of a reliable classification system for gastric cancer. The latest results from gastric cancer studies indicate that it might be useful to integrate DNA- and RNA-based features of gastric cancer into the classification systems to establish prognostic relevance. This article reviews the diagnostic relevance and the prognostic value of different pathohistological classification systems in gastric cancer. PMID:24914328

Precipitation regimes over central Greenland inferred from 5 years of ICECAPS observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pettersen, Claire; Bennartz, Ralf; Merrelli, Aronne J.; Shupe, Matthew D.; Turner, David D.; Walden, Von P.

2018-04-01

A novel method for classifying Arctic precipitation using ground based remote sensors is presented. Using differences in the spectral variation of microwave absorption and scattering properties of cloud liquid water and ice, this method can distinguish between different types of snowfall events depending on the presence or absence of condensed liquid water in the clouds that generate the precipitation. The classification reveals two distinct, primary regimes of precipitation over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS): one originating from fully glaciated ice clouds and the other from mixed-phase clouds. Five years of co-located, multi-instrument data from the Integrated Characterization of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit (ICECAPS) are used to examine cloud and meteorological properties and patterns associated with each precipitation regime. The occurrence and accumulation of the precipitation regimes are identified and quantified. Cloud and precipitation observations from additional ICECAPS instruments illustrate distinct characteristics for each regime. Additionally, reanalysis products and back-trajectory analysis show different synoptic-scale forcings associated with each regime. Precipitation over the central GIS exhibits unique microphysical characteristics due to the high surface elevations as well as connections to specific large-scale flow patterns. Snowfall originating from the ice clouds is coupled to deep, frontal cloud systems advecting up and over the southeast Greenland coast to the central GIS. These events appear to be associated with individual storm systems generated by low pressure over Baffin Bay and Greenland lee cyclogenesis. Snowfall originating from mixed-phase clouds is shallower and has characteristics typical of supercooled cloud liquid water layers, and slowly propagates from the south and southwest of Greenland along a quiescent flow above the GIS.

Data for NASA's AVE 4 experiment: 25-mb sounding data and synoptic charts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fucik, N. F.; Turner, R. E.

1975-01-01

The AVE 4 Experiment is described and tabulated rawinsonde data at 25-mb intervals from the surface to 25 mb for the 42 stations participating in the experiment are presented. Soundings were taken between 0000 GMT, April 24 and 1200 GMT, April 25, 1975. The methods of data processing and accuracy are discussed. Synoptic charts prepared from the data are presented, as well as an example of contact data.

Synoptic-scale behavior of the extratropical tropopause inversion layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilch Kedzierski, Robin; Matthes, Katja; Bumke, Karl

2015-11-01

High-resolution GPS radio occultation temperature profiles from the COSMIC satellite mission (2007-2013) are used to obtain daily snapshots of the strength of the extratropical tropopause inversion layer (TIL). Its horizontal structure and day-to-day variability are linked to the synoptic situation at near-tropopause level. The strength of the TIL in cyclonic as well as anticyclonic conditions is investigated by separating relative vorticity into curl and shear terms. The analysis shows that the TIL has high zonal variability, and its strength is instantaneously adjusted to the synoptic situation at near-tropopause level. Our key finding is that the TIL within midlatitude ridges in winter is as strong as or stronger than the TIL in polar summer. The strongest TIL in anticyclonic conditions is related to the shear term, while the weaker TIL in cyclonic conditions is enhanced by the curl term.

The role of planetary waves in the tropospheric jet response to stratospheric cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Karen L.; Scott, Richard K.

2016-03-01

An idealized general circulation model is used to assess the importance of planetary-scale waves in determining the position of the tropospheric jet, specifically its tendency to shift poleward as winter stratospheric cooling is increased. Full model integrations are compared against integrations in which planetary waves are truncated in the zonal direction, and only synoptic-scale waves are retained. Two series of truncated integrations are considered, using (i) a modified radiative equilibrium temperature or (ii) a nudged-bias correction technique. Both produce tropospheric climatologies that are similar to the full model when stratospheric cooling is weak. When stratospheric cooling is increased, the results indicate that the interaction between planetary- and synoptic-scale waves plays an important role in determining the structure of the tropospheric mean flow and rule out the possibility that the jet shift occurs purely as a response to changes in the planetary- or synoptic-scale wave fields alone.

Optimum employment of satellite indirect soundings as numerical model input

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horn, L. H.; Derber, J. C.; Koehler, T. L.; Schmidt, B. D.

1981-01-01

The characteristics of satellite-derived temperature soundings that would significantly affect their use as input for numerical weather prediction models were examined. Independent evaluations of satellite soundings were emphasized to better define error characteristics. Results of a Nimbus-6 sounding study reveal an underestimation of the strength of synoptic scale troughs and ridges, and associated gradients in isobaric height and temperature fields. The most significant errors occurred near the Earth's surface and the tropopause. Soundings from the TIROS-N and NOAA-6 satellites were also evaluated. Results again showed an underestimation of upper level trough amplitudes leading to weaker thermal gradient depictions in satellite-only fields. These errors show a definite correlation to the synoptic flow patterns. In a satellite-only analysis used to initialize a numerical model forecast, it was found that these synoptically correlated errors were retained in the forecast sequence.

Synoptic maps constructed from brightness observations of Thomson scattering by heliospheric electrons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hick, P.; Jackson, B.; Schwenn, R.

1991-01-01

Observations of the Thomson scattering brightness by electrons in the inner heliosphere provide a means of probing the heliospheric electron distributions. An extensive data base of Thomson scattering observations, stretching over many years, is available from the zodiacal light photometers on board the two Helios spacecraft. A survey of these data is in progress, presenting these scattering intensities in the form of synoptic maps for successive Carrington rotations. The Thomson scattering maps reflect conditions at typically several tenths of an astronomical unit from the sun. Some representative examples from the survey in comparison with other solar/heliospheric data, such as in situ observations of the Helios plasma experiment and synoptic maps constructed from magnetic field, H alpha and K-coronameter data are presented. The comparison will provide some information about the extension of solar surface features into the inner heliosphere.

The characterization of an air pollution episode using satellite total ozone measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fishman, Jack; Shipham, Mark C.; Vukovich, Fred M.; Cahoon, Donald R.

1987-01-01

A case study is presented which demonstrates that measurements of total ozone from a space-based platform can be used to study a widespread air pollution episode over the southeastern U.S. In particular, the synoptic-scale distribution of surface-level ozone obtained from an independent analysis of ground-based monitoring stations appears to be captured by the synoptic-scale distribution of total ozone, even though about 90 percent of the total ozone is in the stratosphere. Additional analyses of upper air meteorological data, other satellite imagery, and in situ aircraft measurements of ozone likewise support the fact that synoptic-scale variability of tropospheric ozone is primarily responsible for the observed variability in total ozone under certain conditions. The use of the type of analysis discussed in this study may provide an important technique for understanding the global budget of tropospheric ozone.

Macroinvertebrate communities evaluated prior to and following a channel restoration project in Silver Creek, Blaine County, Idaho, 2001-16

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacCoy, Dorene E.; Short, Terry M.

2017-11-22

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Blaine County and The Nature Conservancy, evaluated the status of macroinvertebrate communities prior to and following a channel restoration project in Silver Creek, Blaine County, Idaho. The objective of the evaluation was to determine whether 2014 remediation efforts to restore natural channel conditions in an impounded area of Silver Creek caused declines in local macroinvertebrate communities. Starting in 2001 and ending in 2016, macroinvertebrates were sampled every 3 years at two long-term trend sites and sampled seasonally (spring, summer, and autumn) in 2013, 2015, and 2016 at seven synoptic sites. Trend-site communities were collected from natural stream-bottom substrates to represent locally established macroinvertebrate assemblages. Synoptic site communities were sampled using artificial (multi-plate) substrates to represent recently colonized (4–6 weeks) assemblages. Statistical summaries of spatial and temporal patterns in macroinvertebrate taxonomic composition at both trend and synoptic sites were completed.The potential effect of the restoration project on resident macroinvertebrate populations was determined by comparing the following community assemblage metrics:Total taxonomic richness (taxa richness);Total macroinvertebrate abundance (total abundance);Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera (EPT) richness;EPT abundance;Simpson’s diversity; andSimpson’s evenness for periods prior to and following restoration.A significant decrease in one or more metric values in the period following stream channel restoration was the basis for determining impairment to the macroinvertebrate communities in Silver Creek.Comparison of pre-restoration (2001–13) and post‑restoration (2016) macroinvertebrate community composition at trend sites determined that no significant decreases occurred in any metric parameter for communities sampled in 2016. Taxa and EPT richness of colonized assemblages at synoptic sites increased significantly from pre-restoration in 2013 to post-restoration in 2015 and 2016. Similarly, total and EPT abundances at synoptic sites showed non-significant increases from 2013 to 2015 and 2016. Significant seasonal differences in macroinvertebrate assemblages were apparent at synoptic site locations and likely reflected typical life-history patterns of increased insect emergence and development in the late spring and early summer months. Taxa and EPT richness were each significantly higher in spring and summer than in autumn, and total abundances were significantly higher in spring than in summer and autumn. No significant differences in community diversity or evenness of colonized communities were noted at synoptic site locations between pre- and post-restoration years or among seasons. Select community-metric results from the trend- and synoptic‑site sampling indicated that the Silver Creek restoration effort in 2014 did not result in a significant decline in resident macroinvertebrate communities.

On the development of an interactive resource information management system for analysis and display of spatiotemporal data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schell, J. A.

1974-01-01

The recent availability of timely synoptic earth imagery from the Earth Resources Technology Satellites (ERTS) provides a wealth of information for the monitoring and management of vital natural resources. Formal language definitions and syntax interpretation algorithms were adapted to provide a flexible, computer information system for the maintenance of resource interpretation of imagery. These techniques are incorporated, together with image analysis functions, into an Interactive Resource Information Management and Analysis System, IRIMAS, which is implemented on a Texas Instruments 980A minicomputer system augmented with a dynamic color display for image presentation. A demonstration of system usage and recommendations for further system development are also included.

Advanced systems requirements for ocean observations via microwave radiometers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blume, H.-J. C.; Swift, C. T.; Kendall, B. M.

1978-01-01

A future microwave spectroradiometer operating in several frequency bands will have the capability to step or sweep frequencies on an adaptable or programmable basis. The on-board adaptable frequency shifting can make the systems immune from radio interference. Programmable frequency sweeping with on-board data inversion by high speed computers would provide for instantaneous synoptic measurements or sea surface temperature and salinity, water surface and volume pollution, ice thickness, ocean surface winds, snow depth, and soil moisture. Large structure satellites will allow an order of magnitude improvement in the present radiometric measurement spacial resolution.

Analysis of Summer Thunderstorms in Central Alabama Using the NASA Land Information System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, Robert; Case, Jonathan; Molthan, Andrew; Jedloved, Gary

2010-01-01

Forecasters have difficulty predicting "random" afternoon thunderstorms during the summer months. Differences in soil characteristics could be a contributing factor for storms. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) may assist forecasters in predicting summer convection by identifying boundaries in land characteristics. This project identified case dates during the summer of 2009 by analyzing synoptic weather maps, radar, and satellite data to look for weak atmospheric forcing and disorganized convective development. Boundaries in land characteristics that may have lead to convective initiation in central Alabama were then identified using LIS.

Interfacing remote sensing and geographic information systems for global environmental change research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Jae K.; Randolph, J. C.; Lulla, Kamlesh P.; Helfert, Michael R.

1993-01-01

Because changes in the Earth's environment have become major global issues, continuous, longterm scientific information is required to assess global problems such as deforestation, desertification, greenhouse effects and climate variations. Global change studies require understanding of interactions of complex processes regulating the Earth system. Space-based Earth observation is an essential element in global change research for documenting changes in Earth environment. It provides synoptic data for conceptual predictive modeling of future environmental change. This paper provides a brief overview of remote sensing technology from the perspective of global change research.

How should children with speech sound disorders be classified? A review and critical evaluation of current classification systems.

PubMed

Waring, R; Knight, R

2013-01-01

Children with speech sound disorders (SSD) form a heterogeneous group who differ in terms of the severity of their condition, underlying cause, speech errors, involvement of other aspects of the linguistic system and treatment response. To date there is no universal and agreed-upon classification system. Instead, a number of theoretically differing classification systems have been proposed based on either an aetiological (medical) approach, a descriptive-linguistic approach or a processing approach. To describe and review the supporting evidence, and to provide a critical evaluation of the current childhood SSD classification systems. Descriptions of the major specific approaches to classification are reviewed and research papers supporting the reliability and validity of the systems are evaluated. Three specific paediatric SSD classification systems; the aetiologic-based Speech Disorders Classification System, the descriptive-linguistic Differential Diagnosis system, and the processing-based Psycholinguistic Framework are identified as potentially useful in classifying children with SSD into homogeneous subgroups. The Differential Diagnosis system has a growing body of empirical support from clinical population studies, across language error pattern studies and treatment efficacy studies. The Speech Disorders Classification System is currently a research tool with eight proposed subgroups. The Psycholinguistic Framework is a potential bridge to linking cause and surface level speech errors. There is a need for a universally agreed-upon classification system that is useful to clinicians and researchers. The resulting classification system needs to be robust, reliable and valid. A universal classification system would allow for improved tailoring of treatments to subgroups of SSD which may, in turn, lead to improved treatment efficacy. © 2012 Royal College of Speech and Language Therapists.

5 CFR 9701.231 - Conversion of positions and employees to the DHS classification system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... the DHS classification system. 9701.231 Section 9701.231 Administrative Personnel DEPARTMENT OF... MANAGEMENT) DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Classification Transitional Provisions § 9701.231 Conversion of positions and employees to the DHS classification system. (a) This...

Impact of synoptic weather patterns on 24 h-average PM2.5 concentrations in the North China Plain during 2013-2017.

PubMed

Zhang, Hao; Yuan, Haiou; Liu, Xiaohui; Yu, Junyi; Jiao, Yongli

2018-06-15

North China Plain area (NCP) is one of the most densely populated and heavily polluted regions in the world. In the last five years, frequently happened fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) serious pollution events were one of the top environmental concerns in China. As PM 2.5 concentrations are highly influenced by synoptic flow patterns and local meteorological conditions, a two-stage hierarchical clustering method based on dynamic principal component analysis (DPCA) and standard k-means clustering algorithm was employed to classify synoptic wind fields into 6 patterns over the NCP area using the data of 5 PM 2.5 seasons (Sept. 15th-Apr. 15th) from 2013 to 2017. Among the six identified synoptic patterns, pattern of uniform pressure field (U) and that of zonal high pressure (Z H ) accounted for 78.21%, 65.55%, 63.56%, 57.11%, 59.13% and 58.27% studied heavy smog pollution events in Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, Baoding, Shijiazhuang and Xingtai city. The two particular patterns were associated with uniform pressure field and sparsely latitudinal isobar in 850 hPa level, respectively. They were also characterized by high relative humidity, low temperature, low-speed northerly wind in Tianjin and Tangshan, and southerly wind in the other cities. Under the continuous control of pattern Z H , the values of 24 h-average PM 2.5 were found to increase at a rate of 31.78 μg/m 3 per day. To evaluate the contribution of meteorological factors and precursors to PM 2.5 levels, linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) were applied to establish relations among 24 h-average PM 2.5 concentrations, concentrations of main precursors, local meteorological factors and synoptic patterns. Results show that the variations of precursors, local meteorological factors and synoptic flow patterns can explain 51.67%, 19.15% and 14.01% changes of the 24 h-average PM 2.5 concentrations, respectively. This study illustrates that dense precursor emissions are still the main cause for heavy haze pollution events, although meteorological conditions play almost equal roles sometimes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Transition in Atmospheric Moisture Transport as Observed in Stable Isotope Data From Mount Wrangell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, K.; Field, R.; Benson, C.

2007-12-01

Measurements made at the summit of Mount Wrangell in the Saint Elias Mountains during a storm in early August 1980 show a change in δ18O that approaches that normally observed to occur between winter and summer in the same region. We explore the synoptic-scale conditions associated with this storm with a view to understanding the processes responsible for this large change in δ18O. Using a variety of diagnostic techniques including satellite imagery, reanalysis data and back-trajectories, we show that during this event there was a dramatic transition in the atmospheric moisture transport to Mount Wrangell from a sub-tropical source region over the central Pacific to an extra-tropical source region over Siberia. This transition was mediated by the interaction of two synoptic-scale weather systems, the semi-permanent high situated over the northeastern Pacific Ocean and a transient extra-tropical cyclone that entered the Alaska region from the west. The implications that such events have on the reconstruction of climate signals contained in ice cores from the Saint Elias region will be discussed.

April 2008 Saharan dust event: Its contribution to PM10 concentrations over the Anatolian Peninsula and relation with synoptic conditions.

PubMed

Kabatas, B; Pierce, R B; Unal, A; Rogal, M J; Lenzen, A

2018-08-15

An online-coupled regional Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) is utilized incorporating 0.1°×0.1° spatial resolution HTAP (Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution) anthropogenic emissions to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of a Saharan dust outbreak, which contributed to high levels (>50μg/m 3 ) of daily PM 10 concentrations over Turkey in April 2008. Aerosol optical depth and cloud optical thickness retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor on board of Aqua satellite are used to better analyze the synoptic conditions that generated the dust outbreak in April 2008. A "Sharav" low pressure system, which transports the dust from Saharan source region over Turkey along the cold front, tends to move faster in WRF-Chem simulations than observed. This causes the predicted dust event to arrive earlier than observed leading to an overestimation of surface PM 10 concentrations in WRF-Chem simulation at the beginning of the event. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An operational mesoscale ensemble data assimilation and prediction system: E-RTFDDA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Hopson, T.; Roux, G.; Hacker, J.; Xu, M.; Warner, T.; Swerdlin, S.

2009-04-01

Mesoscale (2-2000 km) meteorological processes differ from synoptic circulations in that mesoscale weather changes rapidly in space and time, and physics processes that are parameterized in NWP models play a great role. Complex interactions of synoptic circulations, regional and local terrain, land-surface heterogeneity, and associated physical properties, and the physical processes of radiative transfer, cloud and precipitation and boundary layer mixing, are crucial in shaping regional weather and climate. Mesoscale ensemble analysis and prediction should sample the uncertainties of mesoscale modeling systems in representing these factors. An innovative mesoscale Ensemble Real-Time Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (E-RTFDDA) and forecasting system has been developed at NCAR. E-RTFDDA contains diverse ensemble perturbation approaches that consider uncertainties in all major system components to produce multi-scale continuously-cycling probabilistic data assimilation and forecasting. A 30-member E-RTFDDA system with three nested domains with grid sizes of 30, 10 and 3.33 km has been running on a Department of Defense high-performance computing platform since September 2007. It has been applied at two very different US geographical locations; one in the western inter-mountain area and the other in the northeastern states, producing 6 hour analyses and 48 hour forecasts, with 4 forecast cycles a day. The operational model outputs are analyzed to a) assess overall ensemble performance and properties, b) study terrain effect on mesoscale predictability, c) quantify the contribution of different ensemble perturbation approaches to the overall forecast skill, and d) assess the additional contributed skill from an ensemble calibration process based on a quantile-regression algorithm. The system and the results will be reported at the meeting.

Large-Scale, Synoptic-Period Weather Systems in Mars' Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, M.

2013-10-01

During late autumn through early spring, extratropical regions on Mars exhibit profound mean zonal equator-to-pole thermal contrasts associated with its waxing and waning seasonal polar ice caps. The imposition of this strong meridional temperature gradient supports intense eastward-traveling, synoptic-period weather systems (i.e., transient baroclinic/barotropic waves) within Mars' extratropical atmosphere. These disturbances grow, mature and decay within the east-west varying seasonal-mean middle and high-latitude westerly jet stream (i.e., the polar vortex) on the planet. Near the surface, such weather disturbances indicated distinctive, spiraling "comma"-shaped dust cloud structures of large scale, and scimitar-shaped dust fronts, indicative of processes associated with cyclo- and fronto-genesis. The weather systems are most intense during specific seasons on Mars, and in both hemispheres. The northern hemisphere (NH) disturbances appear to be significantly more vigorous than their counterparts in the southern hemisphere (SH). Further, the NH weather systems and accompanying frontal waves appear to have significant impacts on the transport of tracer fields (e.g., particularly dust and to some extent water species (vapor/ice) as well). Regarding dust, frontal waves appear to be key agents in the lifting, lofting, organization and transport of this atmospheric aerosol. A brief background and supporting observations of Mars' extratropical weather systems is presented. This is followed by various modeling studies (i.e., ranging from highly simplified, mechanistic and fully complex global circulation modeling investigations) that we are pursuing. In particular, transport of scalar quantities (e.g., tracers and high-order dynamically revealing diagnostic fields) are investigated. A discussion of outstanding issues and future modeling pursuits is offered related to Mars' extratropical traveling weather systems.

Supernova Cosmology in the Big Data Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kessler, Richard

Here we describe large "Big Data" Supernova (SN) Ia surveys, past and present, used to make precision measurements of cosmological parameters that describe the expansion history of the universe. In particular, we focus on surveys designed to measure the dark energy equation of state parameter w and its dependence on cosmic time. These large surveys have at least four photometric bands, and they use a rolling search strategy in which the same instrument is used for both discovery and photometric follow-up observations. These surveys include the Supernova Legacy Survey (SNLS), Sloan Digital Sky Survey II (SDSS-II), Pan-STARRS 1 (PS1), Dark Energy Survey (DES), and Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). We discuss the development of how systematic uncertainties are evaluated, and how methods to reduce them play a major role is designing new surveys. The key systematic effects that we discuss are (1) calibration, measuring the telescope efficiency in each filter band, (2) biases from a magnitude-limited survey and from the analysis, and (3) photometric SN classification for current surveys that don't have enough resources to spectroscopically confirm each SN candidate.

Supernova Cosmology Inference with Probabilistic Photometric Redshifts (SCIPPR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, Christina; Malz, Alex; Hlozek, Renée

2018-01-01

The Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species (BEAMS) framework employs probabilistic supernova type classifications to do photometric SN cosmology. This work extends BEAMS to replace high-confidence spectroscopic redshifts with photometric redshift probability density functions, a capability that will be essential in the era the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope and other next-generation photometric surveys where it will not be possible to perform spectroscopic follow up on every SN. We present the Supernova Cosmology Inference with Probabilistic Photometric Redshifts (SCIPPR) Bayesian hierarchical model for constraining the cosmological parameters from photometric lightcurves and host galaxy photometry, which includes selection effects and is extensible to uncertainty in the redshift-dependent supernova type proportions. We create a pair of realistic mock catalogs of joint posteriors over supernova type, redshift, and distance modulus informed by photometric supernova lightcurves and over redshift from simulated host galaxy photometry. We perform inference under our model to obtain a joint posterior probability distribution over the cosmological parameters and compare our results with other methods, namely: a spectroscopic subset, a subset of high probability photometrically classified supernovae, and reducing the photometric redshift probability to a single measurement and error bar.

Behavior of predicted convective clouds and precipitation in the high-resolution Unified Model over the Indian summer monsoon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayakumar, A.; Sethunadh, Jisesh; Rakhi, R.; Arulalan, T.; Mohandas, Saji; Iyengar, Gopal R.; Rajagopal, E. N.

2017-05-01

National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting high-resolution regional convective-scale Unified Model with latest tropical science settings is used to evaluate vertical structure of cloud and precipitation over two prominent monsoon regions: Western Ghats (WG) and Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ). Model radar reflectivity generated using Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observation Simulator Package along with CloudSat profiling radar reflectivity is sampled for an active synoptic situation based on a new method using Budyko's index of turbulence (BT). Regime classification based on BT-precipitation relationship is more predominant during the active monsoon period when convective-scale model's resolution increases from 4 km to 1.5 km. Model predicted precipitation and vertical distribution of hydrometeors are found to be generally in agreement with Global Precipitation Measurement products and BT-based CloudSat observation, respectively. Frequency of occurrence of radar reflectivity from model implies that the low-level clouds below freezing level is underestimated compared to the observations over both regions. In addition, high-level clouds in the model predictions are much lesser over WG than MCZ.

Circulation weather types and their influence on precipitation in Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putniković, Suzana; Tošić, Ivana; Đurđević, Vladimir

2016-10-01

An objective classification scheme of atmospheric circulation, in which daily circulation is determined by the strength, direction, and vorticity of geostrophic flow, has been applied to the atmosphere over Serbia for the time period 1961-2010. The results for the sea level and isobaric level of 500 hPa for winter and summer are presented. The 26 circulation types (eight pure direction, 16 hybrid, cyclonic, and anticyclonic types) are determined and described. Each of the circulation types has a distinct underlying synoptic pattern that produces the expected type and direction of flow over the study area. The relative frequencies of the circulation types, and the relationship between the precipitation and circulation types at three stations on a seasonal time scale are analyzed. The anticyclonic weather type dominates in winter (18.93 %) and summer (18.70 %), followed by the northeasterly type (16.65 %) in summer, and the cyclonic type (12.83 %) in winter. The cyclonic types (C and hybrid) have a higher than average probability of rain at all stations. Conversely, the anticyclonic types are associated with a lower than average probability and intensity of rainfall.

Gynecomastia Classification for Surgical Management: A Systematic Review and Novel Classification System.

PubMed

Waltho, Daniel; Hatchell, Alexandra; Thoma, Achilleas

2017-03-01

Gynecomastia is a common deformity of the male breast, where certain cases warrant surgical management. There are several surgical options, which vary depending on the breast characteristics. To guide surgical management, several classification systems for gynecomastia have been proposed. A systematic review was performed to (1) identify all classification systems for the surgical management of gynecomastia, and (2) determine the adequacy of these classification systems to appropriately categorize the condition for surgical decision-making. The search yielded 1012 articles, and 11 articles were included in the review. Eleven classification systems in total were ascertained, and a total of 10 unique features were identified: (1) breast size, (2) skin redundancy, (3) breast ptosis, (4) tissue predominance, (5) upper abdominal laxity, (6) breast tuberosity, (7) nipple malposition, (8) chest shape, (9) absence of sternal notch, and (10) breast skin elasticity. On average, classification systems included two or three of these features. Breast size and ptosis were the most commonly included features. Based on their review of the current classification systems, the authors believe the ideal classification system should be universal and cater to all causes of gynecomastia; be surgically useful and easy to use; and should include a comprehensive set of clinically appropriate patient-related features, such as breast size, breast ptosis, tissue predominance, and skin redundancy. None of the current classification systems appears to fulfill these criteria.

Data for NASA's AVSSE 2 experiment: 25 mb sounding data and synoptic charts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fucik, N. F.; Turner, R. E.

1976-01-01

The AVSSE II experiment is described and tabulated rawinsonde data at 25 mb intervals from the surface to 25 mb for the 23 stations participating in the experiment are presented. Soundings were taken between 1,200 GMT, May 6, and 1,200 GMT, May 7, 1975. The methods of data processing and accuracy are briefly discussed. Synoptic charts prepared from the data are presented, as well as an example of contact data.

Data for NASA's AVE 4 experiment: 25 mb sounding data and synoptic charts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fucik, N. F.; Turner, R. E.

1976-01-01

The AVE IV Experiment is described and tabulated rawinsonde data at 25 mb intervals from the surface to 25 mb for the 42 stations participating in the experiment are presented. Soundings were taken between 0000 GMT, April 24, and 1,200 GMT, April 25, 1975. The methods of data processing and accuracy are briefly discussed. Synoptic charts prepared from the data are presented, as well as an example of contact data.

A synoptic study of the nature and effects of field aligned low energy electron precipitation in the auroral regions. Ph.D. Thesis - Catholic Univ. of America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berko, F. W.

1972-01-01

A synoptic study is presented of field-aligned precipitation events observed during a 16-month period, representing a full 4 pi precession of the satellite orbital plane in magnetic local time. The morphology of this type of precipitation, its nature, and relationships between this phenomenon and other geophysical events are discussed in the context of the 16-month data base.

Using Big Data to Understand the Human Condition: The Kavli HUMAN Project.

PubMed

Azmak, Okan; Bayer, Hannah; Caplin, Andrew; Chun, Miyoung; Glimcher, Paul; Koonin, Steven; Patrinos, Aristides

2015-09-01

Until now, most large-scale studies of humans have either focused on very specific domains of inquiry or have relied on between-subjects approaches. While these previous studies have been invaluable for revealing important biological factors in cardiac health or social factors in retirement choices, no single repository contains anything like a complete record of the health, education, genetics, environmental, and lifestyle profiles of a large group of individuals at the within-subject level. This seems critical today because emerging evidence about the dynamic interplay between biology, behavior, and the environment point to a pressing need for just the kind of large-scale, long-term synoptic dataset that does not yet exist at the within-subject level. At the same time that the need for such a dataset is becoming clear, there is also growing evidence that just such a synoptic dataset may now be obtainable-at least at moderate scale-using contemporary big data approaches. To this end, we introduce the Kavli HUMAN Project (KHP), an effort to aggregate data from 2,500 New York City households in all five boroughs (roughly 10,000 individuals) whose biology and behavior will be measured using an unprecedented array of modalities over 20 years. It will also richly measure environmental conditions and events that KHP members experience using a geographic information system database of unparalleled scale, currently under construction in New York. In this manner, KHP will offer both synoptic and granular views of how human health and behavior coevolve over the life cycle and why they evolve differently for different people. In turn, we argue that this will allow for new discovery-based scientific approaches, rooted in big data analytics, to improving the health and quality of human life, particularly in urban contexts.

Synoptic evolution of Atmospheric River landfalls in Northern California and the pre-conditioning of their characteristics by the climate state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gershunov, A.; Guirguis, K.; Shulgina, T.; Clemesha, R.; Ralph, M.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) contribute the lion's share of water resources for California, but can also cause flooding and draw heavily on emergency resources of state and local governments. Comprehensive probabilistic tools relating landfalling ARs to pre-existing weather/climate conditions could be useful for subseasonal forecasting, emergency preparedness and water resource management. We examine ARs targeting the Northern California coast using long-term observations of synoptic-scale circulation, high-resolution precipitation, and a seven-decade-long catalog of AR landfalls to quantify distinct orientations of landfalling ARs. Using a probabilistic approach to relate these historic events to precursor weather patterns, we identify synoptic circulation patterns that precede AR landfalls at various lead times in the range of 0-30 days. Examination of the evolution of these precursor patterns reveals subtle but important differences in the atmospheric states that lead to AR landfalls versus those that don't. Synoptic precursors can also differentiate between orientations of ARs at landfall, which produce rather different precipitation patterns over the region's complex topography. Moreover, low-frequency climate forcing appears to modulate the likelihood of AR landfalls, as well as their preferred orientations. These results provide a link between seasonal and subseasonal timescales and suggest a new approach toward extended-range prediction of land-falling atmospheric rivers and their related precipitation.

[Effects of synoptic type on surface ozone pollution in Beijing].

PubMed

Tang, Gui-qian; Li, Xin; Wang, Xiao-ke; Xin, Jin-yuan; Hu, Bo; Wang, Li-li; Ren, Yu-fen; Wang, Yue-Si

2010-03-01

Ozone (O), influenced by meteorological factors, is a primary gaseous photochemical pollutant during summer to fall in Beijing' s urban ambient. Continuous monitoring during July to September in 2008 was carried out at four sites in Beijing. Analyzed with synoptic type, the results show that the ratios of pre-low cylonic (mainly Mongolia cyclone) and pre-high anticylonic to total weather conditions are about 42% and 20%, illustrating the high-and low-ozone episodes, respectively. At the pre-low cylonic conditions, high temperature, low humidity, mountain and valley winds caused by local circulation induce average hourly maximum ozone concentration (volume fraction) up to 102.2 x 10(-9), negative correlated with atmospheric pressure with a slope of -3.4 x 10(-9) Pa(-1). The time of mountain wind changed to valley wind dominates the diurnal time of maximum ozone, generally around 14:00. At the pre-high anticylonic conditions, low temperature, high humidity and systematic north wind induce average hourly maximum ozone concentration (volume fraction) only 49.3 x 10(-9), the diurnal time of maximum ozone is deferred by continuous north wind till about 16:00. The consistency of photochemical pollution in Beijing region shows that good correlation exists between synoptic type and ozone concentration. Therefore, getting an eye on the structure and evolution of synoptic type is of great significances for forecasting the photochemical pollution.

Large CO 2 effluxes at night and during synoptic weather events significantly contribute to CO 2 emissions from a reservoir

DOE PAGES

Liu, Heping; Zhang, Qianyu; Katul, Gabriel G.; ...

2016-05-24

CO 2 emissions from inland waters are commonly determined by indirect methods that are based on the product of a gas transfer coefficient and the concentration gradient at the air water interface (e.g., wind-based gas transfer models). The measurements of concentration gradient are typically collected during the day in fair weather throughout the course of a year. Direct measurements of eddy covariance CO 2 fluxes from a large inland water body (Ross Barnett reservoir, Mississippi, USA) show that CO 2 effluxes at night are approximately 70% greater than those during the day. At longer time scales, frequent synoptic weather eventsmore » associated with extratropical cyclones induce CO 2 flux pulses, resulting in further increase in annual CO 2 effluxes by 16%. Therefore, CO 2 emission rates from this reservoir, if these diel and synoptic processes are under-sampled, are likely to be underestimated by approximately 40%. Our results also indicate that the CO 2 emission rates from global inland waters reported in the literature, when based on indirect methods, are likely underestimated. Field samplings and indirect modeling frameworks that estimate CO 2 emissions should account for both daytime-nighttime efflux difference and enhanced emissions during synoptic weather events. Furthermore, the analysis here can guide carbon emission sampling to improve regional carbon estimates.« less

Large CO 2 effluxes at night and during synoptic weather events significantly contribute to CO 2 emissions from a reservoir

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Heping; Zhang, Qianyu; Katul, Gabriel G.

CO 2 emissions from inland waters are commonly determined by indirect methods that are based on the product of a gas transfer coefficient and the concentration gradient at the air water interface (e.g., wind-based gas transfer models). The measurements of concentration gradient are typically collected during the day in fair weather throughout the course of a year. Direct measurements of eddy covariance CO 2 fluxes from a large inland water body (Ross Barnett reservoir, Mississippi, USA) show that CO 2 effluxes at night are approximately 70% greater than those during the day. At longer time scales, frequent synoptic weather eventsmore » associated with extratropical cyclones induce CO 2 flux pulses, resulting in further increase in annual CO 2 effluxes by 16%. Therefore, CO 2 emission rates from this reservoir, if these diel and synoptic processes are under-sampled, are likely to be underestimated by approximately 40%. Our results also indicate that the CO 2 emission rates from global inland waters reported in the literature, when based on indirect methods, are likely underestimated. Field samplings and indirect modeling frameworks that estimate CO 2 emissions should account for both daytime-nighttime efflux difference and enhanced emissions during synoptic weather events. Furthermore, the analysis here can guide carbon emission sampling to improve regional carbon estimates.« less

Synoptic-scale Rossby waves and the geographic distribution of lateral transport routes between the tropics and the extratropics in the lower stratosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horinouchi, Takeshi; Sassi, Fabrizio; Boville, Byron A.

2000-11-01

Atmospheric transport between the tropics and the extratropics, in the lowest part of the stratosphere during Northern Hemisphere winter, is investigated. The role of synoptic-scale disturbances that propagate laterally into the tropics is examined using the middle atmosphere version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model Version 3 general circulation model. In the lower stratosphere, synoptic-scale Rossby waves propagate vigorously from the northern (i.e., winter) extratropics through two ``westerly ducts,'' where the westerly zonal mean winds near the equator are favorable to Rossby wave propagation. The waves break in the westerly ducts and modify the mean potential vorticity (PV) structure to connect subtropical and equatorial regions of sharp PV gradients. Frequent wave breaking and the wave -induced PV structure create distinct routes where transport occurs vigorously between the tropics and the northern extratropics. Interhemispheric transport also occurs through regions associated with the westerly ducts. In the Southern (summer) Hemisphere lower stratosphere, synoptic-scale disturbances propagate mainly as ``tongues'' of PV elongated from extratropical disturbances. The transport between the tropics and the southern extratropics has a strong geographic preference but is dominated by the monsoon circulation, as was shown for the upper troposphere by Chen [1995]. PV tongues and other transient anomalies are of secondary importance.

A New Multiscale Model for the Madden-Julian Oscillation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biello, Joseph A.; Majda, Andrew J.

2005-06-01

A multiscale model of the MJO is developed here that accounts, in a simplified fashion, for both the upscale transfer from synoptic to planetary scales of momentum and temperature from wave trains of thermally driven equatorial synoptic-scale circulations in a moving convective envelope as well as direct mean heating on planetary scales. This model involves idealized thermally driven congestus synoptic-scale fluctuations in the eastern part of the moving wave envelope and convective superclusters in the western part of the envelope. The model self-consistently reproduces qualitatively many of the detailed structural features of the planetary circulation in the observations of the MJO, including the vertical structure in both the westerly onset region and the strong westerly wind burst region, as well as the horizontal quadrupole planetary vortex structure. The westerly midlevel inflow in the strong westerly region and the quadrupole vortex are largely produced in the model by the upscale transport of momentum to the planetary scales, while the midlevel easterly jet in the westerly onset region is substantially strengthened by this process. The role of wave trains of tilted organized synoptic-scale circulations is crucial for this fidelity with observations. The appeal of the multiscale models developed below is their firm mathematical underpinnings, simplicity, and analytic tractability while remaining self-consistent with many of the features of the observational record.

The groningen laryngomalacia classification system--based on systematic review and dynamic airway changes.

PubMed

van der Heijden, Martijn; Dikkers, Frederik G; Halmos, Gyorgy B

2015-12-01

Laryngomalacia is the most common cause of dyspnea and stridor in newborn infants. Laryngomalacia is a dynamic change of the upper airway based on abnormally pliable supraglottic structures, which causes upper airway obstruction. In the past, different classification systems have been introduced. Until now no classification system is widely accepted and applied. Our goal is to provide a simple and complete classification system based on systematic literature search and our experiences. Retrospective cohort study with literature review. All patients with laryngomalacia under the age of 5 at time of diagnosis were included. Photo and video documentation was used to confirm diagnosis and characteristics of dynamic airway change. Outcome was compared with available classification systems in literature. Eighty-five patients were included. In contrast to other classification systems, only three typical different dynamic changes have been identified in our series. Two existing classification systems covered 100% of our findings, but there was an unnecessary overlap between different types in most of the systems. Based on our finding, we propose a new a classification system for laryngomalacia, which is purely based on dynamic airway changes. The groningen laryngomalacia classification is a new, simplified classification system with three types, based on purely dynamic laryngeal changes, tested in a tertiary referral center: Type 1: inward collapse of arytenoids cartilages, Type 2: medial displacement of aryepiglottic folds, and Type 3: posterocaudal displacement of epiglottis against the posterior pharyngeal wall. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Streamflow, water-quality, and biological conditions in the Big Black Creek basin, St. Clair County, Alabama, 1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

Journey, Celeste A.; Clark, Amy E.; Stricklin, Victor E.

1998-01-01

In 1997 synoptic streamflow, water-quality, and biological investi- gations in the Big Black Creek Basin were conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the City of Moody, St. Clair County, and the Birmingham Water Works Board. Data obtained during these synoptic investigations provide a one-time look at the streamflow and water-quality conditions in the Big Black Creek Basin during a stable, base-flow period when streamflow originated only from ground-water discharge. These data were used to assess the degree of water-quality degradation in the Big Black Creek Basin from land-use activities in the basin, including leakage of leachate from the Acmar Regional Land- fill. Biological data from the benthic invertebrate community investigation provided an assessment of the cumulative effects of stream conditions on organisms in the basin. The synoptic measurement of streamflow at 28 sites was made during a period of baseflow on August 27, 1997. Two stream reaches above the landfill lost water to the ground-water system, but those below the landfill had significantly higher ground-water gains. If significant leakage of leachate from the landfill had occurred during the measurement period, the distribution of ground-water discharge suggests that leachate would travel relatively short distances before resurfacing as ground-water discharge to the stream. Benthic invertebrate communities were sampled at four sites in the Big Black Creek Basin during July 16-17, 1997. Based on Alabama Department of Environmental Management criteria and on comparison with a nearby unimparied reference site, the benthic invertebrate communities at the sites sampled were considered unimpaired or only slightly impaired during the sample period. This would imply that landfill and coal-mining activities did not have a detrimental effect on the benthic invertebrate communities at the time of the study. Synoptic water-column samples were collected at nine sites on Big Black Creek and its tributaries at the same time that the synoptic streamflow measurements were made. Trace-element and organic compound concentrations in the stream water were below established water-quality standards and criteria for the State of Alabama, with the exception of secondary (aesthetic) drinking-water levels for iron and manganese. Oil and grease concentrations detected in bed sediments were below the corrective action limit of 100 milligrams per kilogram. No significant increases in chloride, specific conductance, total dissolved solids, oil and grease, color, or biochemical oxygen demand were observed at sites downgradient from the landfill. Ground-water samples were collected from three drive-point wells in the vicinity of the landfill. These samples were analyzed for a suite of volatile organic compounds. The solvent 1,1-dichloroethane (the same solvent detected in the ground-water monitoring system at the landfill) was detected in a sample from a drive-point well downgradient from the landfill--an indication of the potential risk of landfill-derived contamination migrating toward Big Black Creek. No distinguishing trend or pattern of contamination was identified that could be attributed solely to landfill activities. Landfill activities did not appear to contribute significant contamination to Big Black Creek during these streamflow conditions. Any contaminant contribution from coal-mining activities in the basin may have served to mask any leachate contributions from the landfill; however, the overall effects on stream water and benthic intervebrate communities apparently were only minimal.

A Multiple-Tracer Approach for Identifying Sewage Sources to an Urban Stream System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hyer, Kenneth Edward

2007-01-01

The presence of human-derived fecal coliform bacteria (sewage) in streams and rivers is recognized as a human health hazard. The source of these human-derived bacteria, however, is often difficult to identify and eliminate, because sewage can be delivered to streams through a variety of mechanisms, such as leaking sanitary sewers or private lateral lines, cross-connected pipes, straight pipes, sewer-line overflows, illicit dumping of septic waste, and vagrancy. A multiple-tracer study was conducted to identify site-specific sources of sewage in Accotink Creek, an urban stream in Fairfax County, Virginia, that is listed on the Commonwealth's priority list of impaired streams for violations of the fecal coliform bacteria standard. Beyond developing this multiple-tracer approach for locating sources of sewage inputs to Accotink Creek, the second objective of the study was to demonstrate how the multiple-tracer approach can be applied to other streams affected by sewage sources. The tracers used in this study were separated into indicator tracers, which are relatively simple and inexpensive to apply, and confirmatory tracers, which are relatively difficult and expensive to analyze. Indicator tracers include fecal coliform bacteria, surfactants, boron, chloride, chloride/bromide ratio, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, and water temperature. Confirmatory tracers include 13 organic compounds that are associated with human waste, including caffeine, cotinine, triclosan, a number of detergent metabolites, several fragrances, and several plasticizers. To identify sources of sewage to Accotink Creek, a detailed investigation of the Accotink Creek main channel, tributaries, and flowing storm drains was undertaken from 2001 to 2004. Sampling was conducted in a series of eight synoptic sampling events, each of which began at the most downstream site and extended upstream through the watershed and into the headwaters of each tributary. Using the synoptic sampling approach, 149 sites were sampled at least one time for indicator tracers; 52 of these sites also were sampled for confirmatory tracers at least one time. Through the analysis of multiple-tracer levels in the synoptic samples, three major sewage sources to the Accotink Creek stream network were identified, and several other minor sewage sources to the Accotink Creek system likely deserve additional investigation. Near the end of the synoptic sampling activities, three additional sampling methods were used to gain better understanding of the potential for sewage sources to the watershed. These additional sampling methods included optical brightener monitoring, intensive stream sampling using automated samplers, and additional sampling of several storm-drain networks. The samples obtained by these methods provided further understanding of possible sewage sources to the streams and a better understanding of the variability in the tracer concentrations at a given sampling site. Collectively, these additional sampling methods were a valuable complement to the synoptic sampling approach that was used for the bulk of this study. The study results provide an approach for local authorities to use in applying a relatively simple and inexpensive collection of tracers to locate sewage sources to streams. Although this multiple-tracer approach is effective in detecting sewage sources to streams, additional research is needed to better detect extremely low-volume sewage sources and better enable local authorities to identify the specific sources of the sewage once it is detected in a stream reach.

Questa baseline and pre-mining ground-water quality investigation. 2. Low-flow (2001) and snowmelt (2002) synoptic/tracer water chemistry for the Red River, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCleskey, R. Blaine; Nordstrom, D. Kirk; Steiger, Judy I.; Kimball, Briant A.; Verplanck, Philip L.

2003-01-01

Water analyses are reported for 259 samples collected from the Red River, New Mexico, and its tributaries during low-flow(2001) and spring snowmelt (2002) tracer studies. Water samples were collected along a 20-kilometer reach of the Red River beginning just east of the town of Red River and ending at the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station located east of Questa, New Mexico. The study area was divided into three sections where separate injections and synoptic sampling events were performed during the low-flow tracer study. During the spring snowmelt tracer study, three tracer injections and synoptic sampling events were performed bracketing the areas with the greatest metal loading into the Red River as determined from the low-flow tracer study. The lowflow tracer synoptic sampling events were August 17, 20, and 24, 2001. The synoptic sampling events for the spring snowmelt tracer were March 30, 31, and April 1, 2002. Stream and large inflow water samples were sampled using equal-width and depth-integrated sampling methods and composited into half-gallon bottles. Grab water samples were collected from smaller inflows. Stream temperatures were measured at the time of sample collection. Samples were transported to a nearby central processing location where pH and specific conductance were measured and the samples processed for chemical analyses. Cations, trace metals, iron redox species, and fluoride were analyzed at the U.S. Geological Survey laboratory in Boulder, Colorado. Cations and trace metal concentrations were determined using inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectrometry and graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry. Arsenic concentrations were determined using hydride generation atomic absorption spectrometry, iron redox species were measured using ultraviolet-visible spectrometry, and fluoride concentrations were determined using an ion-selective electrode. Alkalinity was measured by automated titration, and sulfate, chloride, and bromide were analyzed by ion chromatography at the U.S. Geological Survey laboratory in Salt Lake City, Utah.

An Israeli haboob: Sea breeze activating local anthropogenic dust sources in the Negev loess

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crouvi, Onn; Dayan, Uri; Amit, Rivka; Enzel, Yehouda

2017-02-01

Meso-scale weather systems, such as convective haboobs, are considered to be an important dust generation mechanism. In Israel, however, rather than of meso-scale weather systems, most dust storms are generated by synoptic-scale systems, originating from Sahara and Arabia. Consequently, only distal sources of suspended and deposited dust in Israel are currently reported. Here we report the first detailed study on the merging of synoptic- and meso-scale weather systems leading to a prominent dust outbreak over the Negev, Israel. During the afternoon of May 2nd, 2007, a massive dust storm covered the northern Negev, forming a one kilometer high wall of dust. The haboob was associated with PM10 concentrations of 1000-1500 μg m-3 that advanced at a speed of 10-15 m s-1 and caused temporary closure of local airports. In contrast to most reported haboobs, this one was generated by a sea breeze front acting as a weak cold front enhanced by a cold core cyclone positioned over Libya and Egypt. The sea breeze that brought cold and moist marine air acted as a gravity current with strong surface winds. The sources for the haboob were the loessial soils of the northwestern Negev, especially agricultural fields that were highly disturbed in late spring to early summer. Such surface disturbance is caused by agricultural and/or intensive grazing practices. Our study emphasizes the importance of local dust sources in the Negev and stresses loess recycling as an important process in contemporary dust storms over Israel.

Designing and Implementation of River Classification Assistant Management System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yinjun; Jiang, Wenyuan; Yang, Rujun; Yang, Nan; Liu, Haiyan

2018-03-01

In an earlier publication, we proposed a new Decision Classifier (DCF) for Chinese river classification based on their structures. To expand, enhance and promote the application of the DCF, we build a computer system to support river classification named River Classification Assistant Management System. Based on ArcEngine and ArcServer platform, this system implements many functions such as data management, extraction of river network, river classification, and results publication under combining Client / Server with Browser / Server framework.

42 CFR 412.10 - Changes in the DRG classification system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Changes in the DRG classification system. 412.10... § 412.10 Changes in the DRG classification system. (a) General rule. CMS issues changes in the DRG classification system in a Federal Register notice at least annually. Except as specified in paragraphs (c) and...

42 CFR 412.10 - Changes in the DRG classification system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 42 Public Health 2 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Changes in the DRG classification system. 412.10... § 412.10 Changes in the DRG classification system. (a) General rule. CMS issues changes in the DRG classification system in a Federal Register notice at least annually. Except as specified in paragraphs (c) and...

Inter-Relationships of Functional Status in Cerebral Palsy: Analyzing Gross Motor Function, Manual Ability, and Communication Function Classification Systems in Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hidecker, Mary Jo Cooley; Ho, Nhan Thi; Dodge, Nancy; Hurvitz, Edward A.; Slaughter, Jaime; Workinger, Marilyn Seif; Kent, Ray D.; Rosenbaum, Peter; Lenski, Madeleine; Messaros, Bridget M.; Vanderbeek, Suzette B.; Deroos, Steven; Paneth, Nigel

2012-01-01

Aim: To investigate the relationships among the Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS), Manual Ability Classification System (MACS), and Communication Function Classification System (CFCS) in children with cerebral palsy (CP). Method: Using questionnaires describing each scale, mothers reported GMFCS, MACS, and CFCS levels in 222…

Correlation of the Rock Mass Rating (RMR) System with the Unified Soil Classification System (USCS): Introduction of the Weak Rock Mass Rating System (W-RMR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren, Sean N.; Kallu, Raj R.; Barnard, Chase K.

2016-11-01

Underground gold mines in Nevada are exploiting increasingly deeper ore bodies comprised of weak to very weak rock masses. The Rock Mass Rating (RMR) classification system is widely used at underground gold mines in Nevada and is applicable in fair to good-quality rock masses, but is difficult to apply and loses reliability in very weak rock mass to soil-like material. Because very weak rock masses are transition materials that border engineering rock mass and soil classification systems, soil classification may sometimes be easier and more appropriate to provide insight into material behavior and properties. The Unified Soil Classification System (USCS) is the most likely choice for the classification of very weak rock mass to soil-like material because of its accepted use in tunnel engineering projects and its ability to predict soil-like material behavior underground. A correlation between the RMR and USCS systems was developed by comparing underground geotechnical RMR mapping to laboratory testing of bulk samples from the same locations, thereby assigning a numeric RMR value to the USCS classification that can be used in spreadsheet calculations and geostatistical analyses. The geotechnical classification system presented in this paper including a USCS-RMR correlation, RMR rating equations, and the Geo-Pick Strike Index is collectively introduced as the Weak Rock Mass Rating System (W-RMR). It is the authors' hope that this system will aid in the classification of weak rock masses and more usable design tools based on the RMR system. More broadly, the RMR-USCS correlation and the W-RMR system help define the transition between engineering soil and rock mass classification systems and may provide insight for geotechnical design in very weak rock masses.

Overweight and Obesity Prevalence Among School-Aged Nunavik Inuit Children According to Three Body Mass Index Classification Systems.

PubMed

Medehouenou, Thierry Comlan Marc; Ayotte, Pierre; St-Jean, Audray; Meziou, Salma; Roy, Cynthia; Muckle, Gina; Lucas, Michel

2015-07-01

Little is known about the suitability of three commonly used body mass index (BMI) classification system for Indigenous children. This study aims to estimate overweight and obesity prevalence among school-aged Nunavik Inuit children according to International Obesity Task Force (IOTF), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and World Health Organization (WHO) BMI classification systems, to measure agreement between those classification systems, and to investigate whether BMI status as defined by these classification systems is associated with levels of metabolic and inflammatory biomarkers. Data were collected on 290 school-aged children (aged 8-14 years; 50.7% girls) from the Nunavik Child Development Study with data collected in 2005-2010. Anthropometric parameters were measured and blood sampled. Participants were classified as normal weight, overweight, and obese according to BMI classification systems. Weighted kappa (κw) statistics assessed agreement between different BMI classification systems, and multivariate analysis of variance ascertained their relationship with metabolic and inflammatory biomarkers. The combined prevalence rate of overweight/obesity was 26.9% (with 6.6% obesity) with IOTF, 24.1% (11.0%) with CDC, and 40.4% (12.8%) with WHO classification systems. Agreement was the highest between IOTF and CDC (κw = .87) classifications, and substantial for IOTF and WHO (κw = .69) and for CDC and WHO (κw = .73). Insulin and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein plasma levels were significantly higher from normal weight to obesity, regardless of classification system. Among obese subjects, higher insulin level was observed with IOTF. Compared with other systems, IOTF classification appears to be more specific to identify overweight and obesity in Inuit children. Copyright © 2015 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stroke subtyping for genetic association studies? A comparison of the CCS and TOAST classifications.

PubMed

Lanfranconi, Silvia; Markus, Hugh S

2013-12-01

A reliable and reproducible classification system of stroke subtype is essential for epidemiological and genetic studies. The Causative Classification of Stroke system is an evidence-based computerized algorithm with excellent inter-rater reliability. It has been suggested that, compared to the Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment classification, it increases the proportion of cases with defined subtype that may increase power in genetic association studies. We compared Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment and Causative Classification of Stroke system classifications in a large cohort of well-phenotyped stroke patients. Six hundred ninety consecutively recruited patients with first-ever ischemic stroke were classified, using review of clinical data and original imaging, according to the Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment and Causative Classification of Stroke system classifications. There was excellent agreement subtype assigned by between Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment and Causative Classification of Stroke system (kappa = 0·85). The agreement was excellent for the major individual subtypes: large artery atherosclerosis kappa = 0·888, small-artery occlusion kappa = 0·869, cardiac embolism kappa = 0·89, and undetermined category kappa = 0·884. There was only moderate agreement (kappa = 0·41) for the subjects with at least two competing underlying mechanism. Thirty-five (5·8%) patients classified as undetermined by Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment were assigned to a definite subtype by Causative Classification of Stroke system. Thirty-two subjects assigned to a definite subtype by Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment were classified as undetermined by Causative Classification of Stroke system. There is excellent agreement between classification using Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment and Causative Classification of Stroke systems but no evidence that Causative Classification of Stroke system reduced the proportion of patients classified to undetermined subtypes. The excellent inter-rater reproducibility and web-based semiautomated nature make Causative Classification of Stroke system suitable for multicenter studies, but the benefit of reclassifying cases already classified using the Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment system on existing databases is likely to be small. © 2012 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2012 World Stroke Organization.

Water-quality assessment of the eastern Iowa basins- nitrogen, phosphorus, suspended sediment, and organic carbon in surface water, 1996-98

USGS Publications Warehouse

Becher, Kent D.; Kalkhoff, Stephen J.; Schnoebelen, Douglas J.; Barnes, Kimberlee K.; Miller, Von E.

2001-01-01

Synoptic samples collected during low and high base flow had nitrogen, phosphorus, and organic-carbon concentrations that varied spatially and seasonally. Comparisons of water-quality data from six basic-fixed sampling sites and 19 other synoptic sites suggest that the water-quality data from basic-fixed sampling sites were representative of the entire study unit during periods of low and high base flow when most streamflow originates from ground water.

Surface features of central North America: a synoptic view from computer graphics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pike, R.J.

1991-01-01

A digital shaded-relief image of the 48 contiguous United States shows the details of large- and small-scale landforms, including several linear trends. The features faithfully reflect tectonism, continental glaciation, fluvial activity, volcanism, and other surface-shaping events and processes. The new map not only depicts topography accurately and in its true complexity, but does so in one synoptic view that provides a regional context for geologic analysis unobscured by clouds, culture, vegetation, or artistic constraints. -Author

Synoptic Meteorology during the SNOW-ONE-A Field Experiment.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-05-01

AD ,34 888 SYNOPTIC METEOROLOGY DURING tHE SNOW-ONE A FIELD I EXPERIMENTIUP COLD REGIONS RESEARCH AND ENGINEERING LABHANOVER NN M A BILELLO MAY 83...PROGRAM ELEMENT. PROJECT. TASK U. S. Army Cold Regions Research and AREA & WORK UNIT NUMBERS Engineering Laboratory DA Project 4A762730AT42- Hanover, New...Hampshire 03755 B-El-5 It. CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADDRESS 12. REPORT DATE Office of the Ch ief of Engineers May 1983 Washington, D.C. 20314 13

Site Investigation Report Groups 3,5, and 6 Fort Devens, Massachusetts. Volume 2 of 2: Appendices

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-01-01

Invertebrates: A Synoptic Review" U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Biological Report 85 (1.6), 60 pp. Eisler , R., 1987 . "Mercury Hazards to Fish, Wildlife, and...Invertebrates: A Synoptic Review" U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Biological Report 85 (1.10), 90 pp. Eisler , R., 1987 . "Polycyclic Aromatic...1983). [f] From Eisler ( 1987 ). [g] Value from Hansch and Leo (1979). [h] Plant value from Eisler (1988). [i] Mammal value from USEPA (1985). [j

Large-area mapping of biodiversity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scott, J.M.; Jennings, M.D.

1998-01-01

The age of discovery, description, and classification of biodiversity is entering a new phase. In responding to the conservation imperative, we can now supplement the essential work of systematics with spatially explicit information on species and assemblages of species. This is possible because of recent conceptual, technical, and organizational progress in generating synoptic views of the earth's surface and a great deal of its biological content, at multiple scales of thematic as well as geographic resolution. The development of extensive spatial data on species distributions and vegetation types provides us with a framework for: (a) assessing what we know and where we know it at meso-scales, and (b) stratifying the biological universe so that higher-resolution surveys can be more efficiently implemented, coveting, for example, geographic adequacy of specimen collections, population abundance, reproductive success, and genetic dynamics. The land areas involved are very large, and the questions, such as resolution, scale, classification, and accuracy, are complex. In this paper, we provide examples from the United States Gap Analysis Program on the advantages and limitations of mapping the occurrence of terrestrial vertebrate species and dominant land-cover types over large areas as joint ventures and in multi-organizational partnerships, and how these cooperative efforts can be designed to implement results from data development and analyses as on-the-ground actions. Clearly, new frameworks for thinking about biogeographic information as well as organizational cooperation are needed if we are to have any hope of documenting the full range of species occurrences and ecological processes in ways meaningful to their management. The Gap Analysis experience provides one model for achieving these new frameworks.

Photometric redshift estimation via deep learning. Generalized and pre-classification-less, image based, fully probabilistic redshifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Isanto, A.; Polsterer, K. L.

2018-01-01

Context. The need to analyze the available large synoptic multi-band surveys drives the development of new data-analysis methods. Photometric redshift estimation is one field of application where such new methods improved the results, substantially. Up to now, the vast majority of applied redshift estimation methods have utilized photometric features. Aims: We aim to develop a method to derive probabilistic photometric redshift directly from multi-band imaging data, rendering pre-classification of objects and feature extraction obsolete. Methods: A modified version of a deep convolutional network was combined with a mixture density network. The estimates are expressed as Gaussian mixture models representing the probability density functions (PDFs) in the redshift space. In addition to the traditional scores, the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and the probability integral transform (PIT) were applied as performance criteria. We have adopted a feature based random forest and a plain mixture density network to compare performances on experiments with data from SDSS (DR9). Results: We show that the proposed method is able to predict redshift PDFs independently from the type of source, for example galaxies, quasars or stars. Thereby the prediction performance is better than both presented reference methods and is comparable to results from the literature. Conclusions: The presented method is extremely general and allows us to solve of any kind of probabilistic regression problems based on imaging data, for example estimating metallicity or star formation rate of galaxies. This kind of methodology is tremendously important for the next generation of surveys.

Vertical motion simulator familiarization guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Danek, George L.

1993-01-01

The Vertical Motion Simulator Familiarization Guide provides a synoptic description of the Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS) and descriptions of the various simulation components and systems. The intended audience is the community of scientists and engineers who employ the VMS for research and development. The concept of a research simulator system is introduced and the building block nature of the VMS is emphasized. Individual sections describe all the hardware elements in terms of general properties and capabilities. Also included are an example of a typical VMS simulation which graphically illustrates the composition of the system and shows the signal flow among the elements and a glossary of specialized terms, abbreviations, and acronyms.

A new hierarchical method for inter-patient heartbeat classification using random projections and RR intervals

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The inter-patient classification schema and the Association for the Advancement of Medical Instrumentation (AAMI) standards are important to the construction and evaluation of automated heartbeat classification systems. The majority of previously proposed methods that take the above two aspects into consideration use the same features and classification method to classify different classes of heartbeats. The performance of the classification system is often unsatisfactory with respect to the ventricular ectopic beat (VEB) and supraventricular ectopic beat (SVEB). Methods Based on the different characteristics of VEB and SVEB, a novel hierarchical heartbeat classification system was constructed. This was done in order to improve the classification performance of these two classes of heartbeats by using different features and classification methods. First, random projection and support vector machine (SVM) ensemble were used to detect VEB. Then, the ratio of the RR interval was compared to a predetermined threshold to detect SVEB. The optimal parameters for the classification models were selected on the training set and used in the independent testing set to assess the final performance of the classification system. Meanwhile, the effect of different lead configurations on the classification results was evaluated. Results Results showed that the performance of this classification system was notably superior to that of other methods. The VEB detection sensitivity was 93.9% with a positive predictive value of 90.9%, and the SVEB detection sensitivity was 91.1% with a positive predictive value of 42.2%. In addition, this classification process was relatively fast. Conclusions A hierarchical heartbeat classification system was proposed based on the inter-patient data division to detect VEB and SVEB. It demonstrated better classification performance than existing methods. It can be regarded as a promising system for detecting VEB and SVEB of unknown patients in clinical practice. PMID:24981916

Zoning vulnerability of climate change in variation of amount and trend of precipitation - Case Study: Great Khorasan province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modiri, Ehsan; Modiri, Sadegh

2015-04-01

Climatic hazards have complex nature that many of them are beyond human control. Earth's climate is constantly fluctuating and trying to balance itself. More than 75% of Iran has arid and semi-arid climate thus assessment of climate change induced threats and vulnerabilities is essential. In order to investigate the reason for the changes in amount and trend of precipitation parameter, 17 synoptic stations have been selected in the interval of the establishment time of the station until 2013. These stations are located in three regions: Northern, Razavi and Southern Khorasan. For quality control of data in Monthly, quarterly and annual total precipitation of data were tested and checked by run test. Then probable trends in each of the areas was assessed by Kendall-tau test. Total annual precipitation of each station is the important factor that increase the sensitivity of vulnerability in the area with low rainfall. Annual amount of precipitation moving from north to south has been declining, though in different fields that they have different geomorphologic characteristics controversies occur. But clearly can be observed average of precipitation decline with decreasing latitude. There were positive trends in the annual precipitation in 6 stations, negative trends in 10 stations, as well as one station, has no trend. The remarkable notice is that all stations have a positive trend were in the northern region in the case study. These stations had been in ranging from none to Moderate classification of threats and vulnerability. After the initialization parameters to classify levels of risks and vulnerability, the two measures of mean annual precipitation and the trends of this fluctuation were combined together. This classification was created in five level for stations. Accordingly Golmakan, Ghochan, Torbate heydarieh, Bojnord and Mashhad were in none threat level. Khoor of Birjand and Boshruyeh have had complete stage of the threat level and had the greatest meteorological perspective risk. Finally, after determining the degree of threats, meteorological vulnerability zoning map was produced by kriging interpolation method and utilizing geographic information systems (GIS). It showed most studied areas were in complete level of investigation. Keywords: Vulnerability, Climate threats, GIS, Zoning, Precipitation, Crisis management.

Extensions to the Speech Disorders Classification System (SDCS)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shriberg, Lawrence D.; Fourakis, Marios; Hall, Sheryl D.; Karlsson, Heather B.; Lohmeier, Heather L.; McSweeny, Jane L.; Potter, Nancy L.; Scheer-Cohen, Alison R.; Strand, Edythe A.; Tilkens, Christie M.; Wilson, David L.

2010-01-01

This report describes three extensions to a classification system for paediatric speech sound disorders termed the Speech Disorders Classification System (SDCS). Part I describes a classification extension to the SDCS to differentiate motor speech disorders from speech delay and to differentiate among three sub-types of motor speech disorders.…

Space industrialization - Education. [via communication satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joels, K. M.

1978-01-01

The components of an educational system based on, and perhaps enhanced by, space industrialization communications technology are considered. Satellite technology has introduced a synoptic distribution system for various transmittable educational media. The cost of communications satellite distribution for educational programming has been high. It has, therefore, been proposed to utilize Space Shuttle related technology and Large Space Structures (LSS) to construct a system with a quantum advancement in communication capability and a quantum reduction in user cost. LSS for communications purposes have three basic advantages for both developed and emerging nations, including the ability to distribute signals over wide geographic areas, the reduced cost of satellite communications systems versus installation of land based systems, and the ability of a communication satellite system to create instant educational networks.

Using SysML for verification and validation planning on the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selvy, Brian M.; Claver, Charles; Angeli, George

2014-08-01

This paper provides an overview of the tool, language, and methodology used for Verification and Validation Planning on the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) Project. LSST has implemented a Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) approach as a means of defining all systems engineering planning and definition activities that have historically been captured in paper documents. Specifically, LSST has adopted the Systems Modeling Language (SysML) standard and is utilizing a software tool called Enterprise Architect, developed by Sparx Systems. Much of the historical use of SysML has focused on the early phases of the project life cycle. Our approach is to extend the advantages of MBSE into later stages of the construction project. This paper details the methodology employed to use the tool to document the verification planning phases, including the extension of the language to accommodate the project's needs. The process includes defining the Verification Plan for each requirement, which in turn consists of a Verification Requirement, Success Criteria, Verification Method(s), Verification Level, and Verification Owner. Each Verification Method for each Requirement is defined as a Verification Activity and mapped into Verification Events, which are collections of activities that can be executed concurrently in an efficient and complementary way. Verification Event dependency and sequences are modeled using Activity Diagrams. The methodology employed also ties in to the Project Management Control System (PMCS), which utilizes Primavera P6 software, mapping each Verification Activity as a step in a planned activity. This approach leads to full traceability from initial Requirement to scheduled, costed, and resource loaded PMCS task-based activities, ensuring all requirements will be verified.

Comparison of Danish dichotomous and BI-RADS classifications of mammographic density.

PubMed

Hodge, Rebecca; Hellmann, Sophie Sell; von Euler-Chelpin, My; Vejborg, Ilse; Andersen, Zorana Jovanovic

2014-06-01

In the Copenhagen mammography screening program from 1991 to 2001, mammographic density was classified either as fatty or mixed/dense. This dichotomous mammographic density classification system is unique internationally, and has not been validated before. To compare the Danish dichotomous mammographic density classification system from 1991 to 2001 with the density BI-RADS classifications, in an attempt to validate the Danish classification system. The study sample consisted of 120 mammograms taken in Copenhagen in 1991-2001, which tested false positive, and which were in 2012 re-assessed and classified according to the BI-RADS classification system. We calculated inter-rater agreement between the Danish dichotomous mammographic classification as fatty or mixed/dense and the four-level BI-RADS classification by the linear weighted Kappa statistic. Of the 120 women, 32 (26.7%) were classified as having fatty and 88 (73.3%) as mixed/dense mammographic density, according to Danish dichotomous classification. According to BI-RADS density classification, 12 (10.0%) women were classified as having predominantly fatty (BI-RADS code 1), 46 (38.3%) as having scattered fibroglandular (BI-RADS code 2), 57 (47.5%) as having heterogeneously dense (BI-RADS 3), and five (4.2%) as having extremely dense (BI-RADS code 4) mammographic density. The inter-rater variability assessed by weighted kappa statistic showed a substantial agreement (0.75). The dichotomous mammographic density classification system utilized in early years of Copenhagen's mammographic screening program (1991-2001) agreed well with the BI-RADS density classification system.

The history of female genital tract malformation classifications and proposal of an updated system.

PubMed

Acién, Pedro; Acién, Maribel I

2011-01-01

A correct classification of malformations of the female genital tract is essential to prevent unnecessary and inadequate surgical operations and to compare reproductive results. An ideal classification system should be based on aetiopathogenesis and should suggest the appropriate therapeutic strategy. We conducted a systematic review of relevant articles found in PubMed, Scopus, Scirus and ISI webknowledge, and analysis of historical collections of 'female genital malformations' and 'classifications'. Of 124 full-text articles assessed for eligibility, 64 were included because they contained original general, partial or modified classifications. All the existing classifications were analysed and grouped. The unification of terms and concepts was also analysed. Traditionally, malformations of the female genital tract have been catalogued and classified as Müllerian malformations due to agenesis, lack of fusion, the absence of resorption and lack of posterior development of the Müllerian ducts. The American Fertility Society classification of the late 1980s included seven basic groups of malformations also considering the Müllerian development and the relationship of the malformations to fertility. Other classifications are based on different aspects: functional, defects in vertical fusion, embryological or anatomical (Vagina, Cervix, Uterus, Adnex and Associated Malformation: VCUAM classification). However, an embryological-clinical classification system seems to be the most appropriate. Accepting the need for a new classification system of genitourinary malformations that considers the experience gained from the application of the current classification systems, the aetiopathogenesis and that also suggests the appropriate treatment, we proposed an update of our embryological-clinical classification as a new system with six groups of female genitourinary anomalies.

Clustering of Synoptic Pattern over the Korean Peninsula from Meteorological Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jinah; Heo, Kiyoung; Choi, Jungwoon; Jung, Sanghoon

2017-04-01

Numerical modeling data on meteorological and ocean science is one of example of big geographic data sources. The properties of the data including the volume, variety, and dynamic aspects pose new challenges for geographic visualization, and visual geoanalytics using big data analysis using machine learning method. A combination of algorithmic and visual approaches that make sense of large volumes of various types of spatiotemporal data are required to gain knowledge about complex phenomena. In the East coast of Korea, it is suffering from property damages and human causalities due to abnormal high waves (swell-like high-height waves). It is known to be caused by local meteorological conditions on the East Sea of Korean Peninsula in previous research and they proposed three kinds of pressure patterns that generate abnormal high waves. However, they cannot describe all kinds of pressure patterns that generate abnormal high waves. In our study, we propose unsupervised machine learning method for pattern clustering and applied it to classify a pattern which has occurred abnormal high waves using numerical meteorological model's reanalysis data from 2000 to 2015 and past historical records of accidents by abnormal high waves. About 25,000 patterns of total spatial distribution of sea surface pressure are clustered into 30 patterns and they are classified into seasonal sea level pressure patterns based on meteorological characteristics of Korean peninsula. Moreover, in order to determine the representative patterns which occurs abnormal high waves, we classified it again using historical accidents cases among the winter season pressure patterns. In this work, we clustered synoptic pattern over the Korean Peninsula in meteorological modeling reanalysis data and we could understand a seasonal variation through identifying the occurrence of clustered synoptic pattern. For the future work, we have to identify the relationship of wave modeling data for better understanding of abnormal high waves and we will develop pattern decision system to predict abnormal high waves in advances. This research was a part of the project titled "Development of Korea Operational Oceanographic System (KOOS), Phase 2" and "Investigation of Large Swell Waves and Rip currents and Development of The Disaster Response System," funded by the Ministry of Oceans & Fisheries Korea (Grant PM59691 and PM59240).

Motion control system of MAX IV Laboratory soft x-ray beamlines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sjöblom, Peter, E-mail: peter.sjoblom@maxlab.lu.se; Lindberg, Mirjam, E-mail: mirjam.lindberg@maxlab.lu.se; Forsberg, Johan, E-mail: johan.forsberg@maxlab.lu.se

2016-07-27

At the MAX IV Laboratory, five new soft x-ray beamlines are under development. The first is Species and it will be used to develop and set the standard of the control system, which will be common across the facility. All motion axes at MAX IV will be motorized using stepper motors steered by the IcePAP motion controller and a mixture of absolute and incremental encoders following a predefined coordinate system. The control system software is built in Tango and uses the Python-based Sardana framework. The user controls the entire beamline through a synoptic overview and Sardana is used to runmore » the scans.« less

Prototype Expert System for Climate Classification.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harris, Clay

Many students find climate classification laborious and time-consuming, and through their lack of repetition fail to grasp the details of classification. This paper describes an expert system for climate classification that is being developed at Middle Tennessee State University. Topics include: (1) an introduction to the nature of classification,…

Oceanographic and meteorological research based on the data products of SEASAT

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierson, W. J. (Principal Investigator)

1983-01-01

De-aliased SEASAT SASS vector winds obtained during the GOASEX (Gulf of Alaska SEASAT Experiment) program were processed to obtain superobservations centered on a one degree by one degree grid. The results provide values for the combined effects of mesoscale variability and communication noise on the individual SASS winds. Each grid point of the synoptic field provides the mean synoptic east-west and north-south wind components plus estimates of the standard deviations of these means. These superobservations winds are then processed further to obtain synoptic scale vector winds stress fiels, the horizontal divergence of the wind, the curl of the wind stress and the vertical velocity at 200 m above the sea surface, each with appropriate standard deviations for each grid point value. The resulting fields appear to be consistant over large distances and to agree with, for example, geostationary cloud images obtained concurrently. Their quality is far superior to that of analyses based on conventional data.

Risk assessment for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality due to air pollution and synoptic meteorology in 10 Canadian cities.

PubMed

Vanos, Jennifer K; Hebbern, Christopher; Cakmak, Sabit

2014-02-01

Synoptic weather and ambient air quality synergistically influence human health. We report the relative risk of mortality from all non-accidental, respiratory-, and cardiovascular-related causes, associated with exposure to four air pollutants, by weather type and season, in 10 major Canadian cities for 1981 through 1999. We conducted this multi-city time-series study using Poisson generalized linear models stratified by season and each of six distinctive synoptic weather types. Statistically significant relationships of mortality due to short-term exposure to carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, and ozone were found, with significant modifications of risk by weather type, season, and mortality cause. In total, 61% of the respiratory-related mortality relative risk estimates were significantly higher than for cardiovascular-related mortality. The combined effect of weather and air pollution is greatest when tropical-type weather is present in the spring or summer. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Synoptic GNIRS XD Spectra ToO Novae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodward, Chick; Helton, Andrew; Spitzer/Chandra Team

2007-02-01

Novae are important contributors to galactic chemical enrichment on local scales. NIR spectroscopy of novae provides information about the elemental abundances of the gas and dust in the ejecta dispersing into the ISM as well as kinematic information related to the outburst. We propose to obtain synoptic GNIRS spectra of select Target of Opportunity (ToO) novae in the Magellanic Clouds (MC) and the galaxy to study the dynamics of the ejecta, to determine the temporal evolution of coronal lines and recombination lines (measuring their strength and velocity profiles), and to determine abundances. Being all equidistant, MC nova permit a more robust analysis of distant-dependent physical parameters of outburst than is generally possible for Galactic novae. The GNIRS data will provide critical spectral coverage and synoptic data to complement extant Spitzer and Chandra nova programs. Triggering of the GNIRS program will occur when a nova becomes brighter than V=12 mag, (assuming that adequate PWFS guide stars exist) as reported in the IAUC or CBET.

Characterizing the Severe Turbulence Environments Associated With Commercial Aviation Accidents. Part 1; 44 Case Study Synoptic Observational Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaplan, Michael L.; Huffman, Allan W.; Lux, Kevin M.; Charney, Joseph J.; Riordan, Allan J.; Lin, Yuh-Lang; Proctor, Fred H. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A 44 case study analysis of the large-scale atmospheric structure associated with development of accident-producing aircraft turbulence is described. Categorization is a function of the accident location, altitude, time of year, time of day, and the turbulence category, which classifies disturbances. National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalyses data sets and satellite imagery are employed to diagnose synoptic scale predictor fields associated with the large-scale environment preceding severe turbulence. These analyses indicate a predominance of severe accident-producing turbulence within the entrance region of a jet stream at the synoptic scale. Typically, a flow curvature region is just upstream within the jet entrance region, convection is within 100 km of the accident, vertical motion is upward, absolute vorticity is low, vertical wind shear is increasing, and horizontal cold advection is substantial. The most consistent predictor is upstream flow curvature and nearby convection is the second most frequent predictor.

Characterizing the influence of atmospheric river orientation and intensity on precipitation distributions over North Coastal California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hecht, Chad W.; Cordeira, Jason M.

2017-09-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long (>2000 km) and narrow (500-1000 km) corridors of enhanced vertically integrated water vapor and enhanced integrated water vapor transport (IVT) that are responsible for a majority of global poleward moisture transport and can result in extreme orographic precipitation. Observational evidence suggests that ARs within different synoptic-scale flow regimes may contain different water vapor source regions, orientations, and intensities and may result in different precipitation distributions. This study uses k-means clustering to objectively identify different orientations and intensities of ARs that make landfall over the California Russian River watershed. The ARs with different orientations and intensities occur within different synoptic-scale flow patterns in association with variability in IVT direction and quasi-geostrophic forcing for ascent and lead to different precipitation distributions over the Russian River watershed. These differences suggest that both mesoscale upslope moisture flux and synoptic-scale forcing for ascent are important factors in modulating precipitation distributions during landfalling ARs.

Assessment of WRF Simulated Precipitation by Meteorological Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagenhoff, Brooke Anne

This study evaluated warm-season precipitation events in a multi-year (2007-2014) database of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations over the Northern Plains and Southern Great Plains. These WRF simulations were run daily in support of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) by the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) for operational forecasts. Evaluating model skill by synoptic pattern allows for an understanding of how model performance varies with particular atmospheric states and will aid forecasters with pattern recognition. To conduct this analysis, a competitive neural network known as the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) was used. SOMs allow the user to represent atmospheric patterns in an array of nodes that represent a continuum of synoptic categorizations. North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data during the warm season (April-September) was used to perform the synoptic typing over the study domains. Simulated precipitation was evaluated against observations provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Stage IV precipitation analysis.

5 CFR 9901.221 - Classification requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... Section 9901.221 Administrative Personnel DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT AND LABOR RELATIONS SYSTEMS (DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE-OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT) DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE NATIONAL SECURITY PERSONNEL SYSTEM (NSPS) Classification Classification Process § 9901.221 Classification...

5 CFR 9701.221 - Classification requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... Section 9701.221 Administrative Personnel DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY-OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT) DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Classification Classification Process § 9701.221 Classification...

5 CFR 9701.221 - Classification requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... Section 9701.221 Administrative Personnel DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY-OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT) DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Classification Classification Process § 9701.221 Classification...

5 CFR 9701.221 - Classification requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... Section 9701.221 Administrative Personnel DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY-OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT) DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Classification Classification Process § 9701.221 Classification...

5 CFR 9701.221 - Classification requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... Section 9701.221 Administrative Personnel DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY-OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT) DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Classification Classification Process § 9701.221 Classification...

The Predictability of Dry-Season Precipitation in Tropical West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knippertz, P.; Davis, J.; Fink, A. H.

2012-04-01

Precipitation during the boreal winter dry season in tropical West Africa is rare but occasionally connected to high-impacts for the local population. Previous work has shown that these events are usually connected to a trough over northwestern Africa, an extensive cloud plume on its eastern side, unusual precipitation at the northern and western fringes of the Sahara, and reduced surface pressure over the southern Sahara and Sahel, which allows an inflow of moist southerlies from the Gulf of Guinea to feed the unusual dry-season rainfalls. These results also suggest that the extratropical influence enhances the predictability of these events on the synoptic timescale. Here we further investigate this question for the 11 dry seasons (November-March) 1998/99-2008/09 using rainfall estimates from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project), and operational ensemble predictions from the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF). All fields are averaged over the study area 7.5-15°N, 10°W-10°E that spans most of southern West Africa. For each 0000 UTC analysis time, the daily precipitation estimates are accumulated to pentads and compared with 120-hour predictions starting at the same time. Compared to TRMM, the ensemble mean shows a weak positive bias, whereas there is a substantial negative bias with regard to GPCP. Temporal correlations reach a high value of 0.8 for both datasets, showing similar synoptic variability despite the differences in total amount. Standard probabilistic evaluation methods such as relative operating characteristic (ROC) diagrams indicate remarkably good reliability, resolution and skill, particularly for lower precipitation thresholds. Not surprisingly, forecasts cluster at low probabilities for higher thresholds, but the reliability and ROC score are still reasonably high. The results show that global ensemble prediction systems are capable to predict dry-season rainfall events in southern West Africa well, at least on regional spatial and synoptic time scales. These results should encourage West African weather services to capitalize more on the valuable information provided by ensemble prediction systems during the dry season.

The Bellevue Classification System: nursing's voice upon the library shelves*†

PubMed Central

Mages, Keith C

2011-01-01

This article examines the inspiration, construction, and meaning of the Bellevue Classification System (BCS), created during the 1930s for use in the Bellevue School of Nursing Library. Nursing instructor Ann Doyle, with assistance from librarian Mary Casamajor, designed the BCS after consulting with library leaders and examining leading contemporary classification systems, including the Dewey Decimal Classification and Library of Congress, Ballard, and National Health Library classification systems. A close textual reading of the classes, subclasses, and subdivisions of these classification systems against those of the resulting BCS, reveals Doyle's belief that the BCS was created not only to organize the literature, but also to promote the burgeoning intellectualism and professionalism of early twentieth-century American nursing. PMID:21243054

Coordination of Local Road Classification with the State Highway System Classification: Impact and Clarification of Related Language in the LVR Manual

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-02-01

This study reviewed the low volume road (LVR) classifications in Kansas in conjunction with the State A, B, C, D, E road classification system and addressed alignment of these differences. As an extension to the State system, an F, G, H classificatio...

Large Synoptic Survey Telescope: From Science Drivers to Reference Design

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

faint time domain. The LSST design is driven by four main science themes: constraining dark energy and dark matter , taking an inventory of the Solar...Energy and Dark Matter (2) Taking an Inventory of the Solar System (3) Exploring the Transient Optical Sky (4) Mapping the Milky Way Each of these four...Constraining Dark Energy and Dark Matter Current models of cosmology require the exis- tence of both dark matter and dark energy to match observational

Mesoscale Predictability and Error Growth in Short Range Ensemble Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gingrich, Mark

Although it was originally suggested that small-scale, unresolved errors corrupt forecasts at all scales through an inverse error cascade, some authors have proposed that those mesoscale circulations resulting from stationary forcing on the larger scale may inherit the predictability of the large-scale motions. Further, the relative contributions of large- and small-scale uncertainties in producing error growth in the mesoscales remain largely unknown. Here, 100 member ensemble forecasts are initialized from an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to simulate two winter storms impacting the East Coast of the United States in 2010. Four verification metrics are considered: the local snow water equivalence, total liquid water, and 850 hPa temperatures representing mesoscale features; and the sea level pressure field representing a synoptic feature. It is found that while the predictability of the mesoscale features can be tied to the synoptic forecast, significant uncertainty existed on the synoptic scale at lead times as short as 18 hours. Therefore, mesoscale details remained uncertain in both storms due to uncertainties at the large scale. Additionally, the ensemble perturbation kinetic energy did not show an appreciable upscale propagation of error for either case. Instead, the initial condition perturbations from the cycling EnKF were maximized at large scales and immediately amplified at all scales without requiring initial upscale propagation. This suggests that relatively small errors in the synoptic-scale initialization may have more importance in limiting predictability than errors in the unresolved, small-scale initial conditions.

A support vector machine approach for classification of welding defects from ultrasonic signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yuan; Ma, Hong-Wei; Zhang, Guang-Ming

2014-07-01

Defect classification is an important issue in ultrasonic non-destructive evaluation. A layered multi-class support vector machine (LMSVM) classification system, which combines multiple SVM classifiers through a layered architecture, is proposed in this paper. The proposed LMSVM classification system is applied to the classification of welding defects from ultrasonic test signals. The measured ultrasonic defect echo signals are first decomposed into wavelet coefficients by the wavelet packet transform. The energy of the wavelet coefficients at different frequency channels are used to construct the feature vectors. The bees algorithm (BA) is then used for feature selection and SVM parameter optimisation for the LMSVM classification system. The BA-based feature selection optimises the energy feature vectors. The optimised feature vectors are input to the LMSVM classification system for training and testing. Experimental results of classifying welding defects demonstrate that the proposed technique is highly robust, precise and reliable for ultrasonic defect classification.

Classifications of Acute Scaphoid Fractures: A Systematic Literature Review.

PubMed

Ten Berg, Paul W; Drijkoningen, Tessa; Strackee, Simon D; Buijze, Geert A

2016-05-01

Background In the lack of consensus, surgeon-based preference determines how acute scaphoid fractures are classified. There is a great variety of classification systems with considerable controversies. Purposes The purpose of this study was to provide an overview of the different classification systems, clarifying their subgroups and analyzing their popularity by comparing citation indexes. The intention was to improve data comparison between studies using heterogeneous fracture descriptions. Methods We performed a systematic review of the literature based on a search of medical literature from 1950 to 2015, and a manual search using the reference lists in relevant book chapters. Only original descriptions of classifications of acute scaphoid fractures in adults were included. Popularity was based on citation index as reported in the databases of Web of Science (WoS) and Google Scholar. Articles that were cited <10 times in WoS were excluded. Results Our literature search resulted in 308 potentially eligible descriptive reports of which 12 reports met the inclusion criteria. We distinguished 13 different (sub) classification systems based on (1) fracture location, (2) fracture plane orientation, and (3) fracture stability/displacement. Based on citations numbers, the Herbert classification was most popular, followed by the Russe and Mayo classifications. All classification systems were based on plain radiography. Conclusions Most classification systems were based on fracture location, displacement, or stability. Based on the controversy and limited reliability of current classification systems, suggested research areas for an updated classification include three-dimensional fracture pattern etiology and fracture fragment mobility assessed by dynamic imaging.

Classification of close binary systems by Svechnikov

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dryomova, G. N.

The paper presents the historical overview of classification schemes of eclipsing variable stars with the foreground of advantages of the classification scheme by Svechnikov being widely appreciated for Close Binary Systems due to simplicity of classification criteria and brevity.

Recursive heuristic classification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilkins, David C.

1994-01-01

The author will describe a new problem-solving approach called recursive heuristic classification, whereby a subproblem of heuristic classification is itself formulated and solved by heuristic classification. This allows the construction of more knowledge-intensive classification programs in a way that yields a clean organization. Further, standard knowledge acquisition and learning techniques for heuristic classification can be used to create, refine, and maintain the knowledge base associated with the recursively called classification expert system. The method of recursive heuristic classification was used in the Minerva blackboard shell for heuristic classification. Minerva recursively calls itself every problem-solving cycle to solve the important blackboard scheduler task, which involves assigning a desirability rating to alternative problem-solving actions. Knowing these ratings is critical to the use of an expert system as a component of a critiquing or apprenticeship tutoring system. One innovation of this research is a method called dynamic heuristic classification, which allows selection among dynamically generated classification categories instead of requiring them to be prenumerated.

Drug-induced sedation endoscopy (DISE) classification systems: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Dijemeni, Esuabom; D'Amone, Gabriele; Gbati, Israel

2017-12-01

Drug-induced sedation endoscopy (DISE) classification systems have been used to assess anatomical findings on upper airway obstruction, and decide and plan surgical treatments and act as a predictor for surgical treatment outcome for obstructive sleep apnoea management. The first objective is to identify if there is a universally accepted DISE grading and classification system for analysing DISE findings. The second objective is to identify if there is one DISE grading and classification treatment planning framework for deciding appropriate surgical treatment for obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA). The third objective is to identify if there is one DISE grading and classification treatment outcome framework for determining the likelihood of success for a given OSA surgical intervention. A systematic review was performed to identify new and significantly modified DISE classification systems: concept, advantages and disadvantages. Fourteen studies proposing a new DISE classification system and three studies proposing a significantly modified DISE classification were identified. None of the studies were based on randomised control trials. DISE is an objective method for visualising upper airway obstruction. The classification and assessment of clinical findings based on DISE is highly subjective due to the increasing number of DISE classification systems. Hence, this creates a growing divergence in surgical treatment planning and treatment outcome. Further research on a universally accepted objective DISE assessment is critically needed.

A New Tool for Climatic Analysis Using the Koppen Climate Classification

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Larson, Paul R.; Lohrengel, C. Frederick, II

2011-01-01

The purpose of climate classification is to help make order of the seemingly endless spatial distribution of climates. The Koppen classification system in a modified format is the most widely applied system in use today. This system may not be the best nor most complete climate classification that can be conceived, but it has gained widespread…

Classification of parotidectomy: a proposed modification to the European Salivary Gland Society classification system.

PubMed

Wong, Wai Keat; Shetty, Subhaschandra

2017-08-01

Parotidectomy remains the mainstay of treatment for both benign and malignant lesions of the parotid gland. There exists a wide range of possible surgical options in parotidectomy in terms of extent of parotid tissue removed. There is increasing need for uniformity of terminology resulting from growing interest in modifications of the conventional parotidectomy. It is, therefore, of paramount importance for a standardized classification system in describing extent of parotidectomy. Recently, the European Salivary Gland Society (ESGS) proposed a novel classification system for parotidectomy. The aim of this study is to evaluate this system. A classification system proposed by the ESGS was critically re-evaluated and modified to increase its accuracy and its acceptability. Modifications mainly focused on subdividing Levels I and II into IA, IB, IIA, and IIB. From June 2006 to June 2016, 126 patients underwent 130 parotidectomies at our hospital. The classification system was tested in that cohort of patient. While the ESGS classification system is comprehensive, it does not cover all possibilities. The addition of Sublevels IA, IB, IIA, and IIB may help to address some of the clinical situations seen and is clinically relevant. We aim to test the modified classification system for partial parotidectomy to address some of the challenges mentioned.

The postoperative COFAS end-stage ankle arthritis classification system: interobserver and intraobserver reliability.

PubMed

Krause, Fabian G; Di Silvestro, Matthew; Penner, Murray J; Wing, Kevin J; Glazebrook, Mark A; Daniels, Timothy R; Lau, Johnny T C; Younger, Alastair S E

2012-02-01

End-stage ankle arthritis is operatively treated with numerous designs of total ankle replacement and different techniques for ankle fusion. For superior comparison of these procedures, outcome research requires a classification system to stratify patients appropriately. A postoperative 4-type classification system was designed by 6 fellowship-trained foot and ankle surgeons. Four surgeons reviewed blinded patient profiles and radiographs on 2 occasions to determine the interobserver and intraobserver reliability of the classification. Excellent interobserver reliability (κ = .89) and intraobserver reproducibility (κ = .87) were demonstrated for the postoperative classification system. In conclusion, the postoperative Canadian Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Society (COFAS) end-stage ankle arthritis classification system appears to be a valid tool to evaluate the outcome of patients operated for end-stage ankle arthritis.

Railroad Classification Yard Technology Manual: Volume II : Yard Computer Systems

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-08-01

This volume (Volume II) of the Railroad Classification Yard Technology Manual documents the railroad classification yard computer systems methodology. The subjects covered are: functional description of process control and inventory computer systems,...

Constructing Concept Schemes From Astronomical Telegrams Via Natural Language Clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, Matthew; Zhang, M.; Djorgovski, S. G.; Donalek, C.; Drake, A. J.; Mahabal, A.

2012-01-01

The rapidly emerging field of time domain astronomy is one of the most exciting and vibrant new research frontiers, ranging in scientific scope from studies of the Solar System to extreme relativistic astrophysics and cosmology. It is being enabled by a new generation of large synoptic digital sky surveys - LSST, PanStarrs, CRTS - that cover large areas of sky repeatedly, looking for transient objects and phenomena. One of the biggest challenges facing these is the automated classification of transient events, a process that needs machine-processible astronomical knowledge. Semantic technologies enable the formal representation of concepts and relations within a particular domain. ATELs (http://www.astronomerstelegram.org) are a commonly-used means for reporting and commenting upon new astronomical observations of transient sources (supernovae, stellar outbursts, blazar flares, etc). However, they are loose and unstructured and employ scientific natural language for description: this makes automated processing of them - a necessity within the next decade with petascale data rates - a challenge. Nevertheless they represent a potentially rich corpus of information that could lead to new and valuable insights into transient phenomena. This project lies in the cutting-edge field of astrosemantics, a branch of astroinformatics, which applies semantic technologies to astronomy. The ATELs have been used to develop an appropriate concept scheme - a representation of the information they contain - for transient astronomy using hierarchical clustering of processed natural language. This allows us to automatically organize ATELs based on the vocabulary used. We conclude that we can use simple algorithms to process and extract meaning from astronomical textual data.

Monitoring land use/cover changes on the Romanian Black Sea Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zoran, L. F. V.; Dida, A. I.; Zoran, M. A.

2014-10-01

Remotely sensed satellite data are critical to understanding the coastal zones' physical and social systems interaction, complementing ground based methods and providing accurate wide range, objective and comparable, at widely-varying scales, synoptically data. For some environmental agreements remote sensing may provide the only viable means of compliance verification because the phenomena are monitored occurs over large and inaccessible geographic areas. The main aim of this paper was the assessment of coastal zone land cover/use changes based on fusion technique of satellite remote sensing imagery. The evaluation of coastal zone landscapes was based upon different sub-functions which refer to landscape features such as water, soil, land-use, buildings, groundwater, biotope types. A newly proposed sub-pixel mapping algorithm was applied to a set of multispectral and multitemporal satellite data for Danube Delta, Constantza and Black Sea coastal zone areas in Romania. A land cover classification and subsequent environmental quality analysis for change detection was done based on Landsat TM , Landsat ETM, QuickBird satellite images over 1990 to 2013 period of time. Spectral signatures of different terrain features have been used to separate and classify surface units of coastal zone and sub-coastal zone area.The change in the position of the coastline in Constantza area was examined in relation with the urban expansion. A distinction was made between landfill/sedimentation processes on the one hand and dredging/erosion processes on the other. We considered the Romanian Black Sea coastal zone dynamics in connection with the spatio-temporal variation of physical and biogeochemical processes and their influences on the environmental state in the near-shore area.

Cause of and factors associated with stillbirth: a systematic review of classification systems.

PubMed

Aminu, Mamuda; Bar-Zeev, Sarah; van den Broek, Nynke

2017-05-01

An estimated 2.6 million stillbirths occur worldwide each year. A standardized classification system setting out possible cause of death and contributing factors is useful to help obtain comparative data across different settings. We undertook a systematic review of stillbirth classification systems to highlight their strengths and weaknesses for practitioners and policymakers. We conducted a systematic search and review of the literature to identify the classification systems used to aggregate information for stillbirth and perinatal deaths. Narrative synthesis was used to compare the range and depth of information required to apply the systems, and the different categories provided for cause of and factors contributing to stillbirth. A total of 118 documents were screened; 31 classification systems were included, of which six were designed specifically for stillbirth, 14 for perinatal death, three systems included neonatal deaths and two included infant deaths. Most (27/31) were developed in and first tested using data obtained from high-income settings. All systems required information from clinical records. One-third of the classification systems (11/31) included information obtained from histology or autopsy. The percentage where cause of death remained unknown ranged from 0.39% using the Nordic-Baltic classification to 46.4% using the Keeling system. Over time, classification systems have become more complex. The success of application is dependent on the availability of detailed clinical information and laboratory investigations. Systems that adopt a layered approach allow for classification of cause of death to a broad as well as to a more detailed level. © 2017 The Authors. Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology (NFOG).

More frequent showers and thunderstorms under a warming climate: evidence observed in Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, H.; Fetzer, E. J.; Wong, S.; Lambrigtsen, B.; Wang, T.; Chen, L. L.; Von, D.

2015-12-01

This study uses historical records of synoptic observations over northern Eurasia to examine changing frequency of precipitation associated with large synoptic events versus convective and thunderstorm activities. We found days associated with showers and precipitation accompanied by thunderstorms have been increasing in general during the study period of 1966-2000 while the total wet day frequency has been decreasing in all seasons. This study suggests increasing convective and severe weather-related precipitation events may be a significant contributor to higher intensity and more extreme precipitation under a warming climate.

Cloud cover determination in polar regions from satellite imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barry, R. G.; Key, J. R.; Maslanik, J. A.

1988-01-01

The principal objectives of this project are: (1) to develop suitable validation data sets to evaluate the effectiveness of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) operational algorithm for cloud retrieval in polar regions and to validate model simulations of polar cloud cover; (2) to identify limitations of current procedures for varying atmospheric surface conditions, and to explore potential means to remedy them using textural classifiers; and (3) to compare synoptic cloud data from a control run experiment of the GISS climate model II with typical observed synoptic cloud patterns.

Searching bioremediation patents through Cooperative Patent Classification (CPC).

PubMed

Prasad, Rajendra

2016-03-01

Patent classification systems have traditionally evolved independently at each patent jurisdiction to classify patents handled by their examiners to be able to search previous patents while dealing with new patent applications. As patent databases maintained by them went online for free access to public as also for global search of prior art by examiners, the need arose for a common platform and uniform structure of patent databases. The diversity of different classification, however, posed problems of integrating and searching relevant patents across patent jurisdictions. To address this problem of comparability of data from different sources and searching patents, WIPO in the recent past developed what is known as International Patent Classification (IPC) system which most countries readily adopted to code their patents with IPC codes along with their own codes. The Cooperative Patent Classification (CPC) is the latest patent classification system based on IPC/European Classification (ECLA) system, developed by the European Patent Office (EPO) and the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) which is likely to become a global standard. This paper discusses this new classification system with reference to patents on bioremediation.

Weather features associated with aircraft icing conditions: a case study.

PubMed

Fernández-González, Sergio; Sánchez, José Luis; Gascón, Estíbaliz; López, Laura; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Merino, Andrés

2014-01-01

In the context of aviation weather hazards, the study of aircraft icing is very important because of several accidents attributed to it over recent decades. On February 1, 2012, an unusual meteorological situation caused severe icing of a C-212-200, an aircraft used during winter 2011-2012 to study winter cloud systems in the Guadarrama Mountains of the central Iberian Peninsula. Observations in this case were from a MP-3000A microwave radiometric profiler, which acquired atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles continuously every 2.5 minutes. A Cloud Aerosol and Precipitation Spectrometer (CAPS) was also used to study cloud hydrometeors. Finally, ice nuclei concentration was measured in an isothermal cloud chamber, with the goal of calculating concentrations in the study area. Synoptic and mesoscale meteorological conditions were analysed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It was demonstrated that topography influenced generation of a mesolow and gravity waves on the lee side of the orographic barrier, in the region where the aircraft experienced icing. Other factors such as moisture, wind direction, temperature, atmospheric stability, and wind shear were decisive in the appearance of icing. This study indicates that icing conditions may arise locally, even when the synoptic situation does not indicate any risk.

Environments of Long-Lived Mesoscale Convective Systems Over the Central United States in Convection Permitting Climate Simulations: Long-Lived Mesoscale Convective Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Qing; Houze, Robert A.; Leung, L. Ruby

Continental-scale convection-permitting simulations of the warm seasons of 2011 and 2012 reproduce realistic structure and frequency distribution of lifetime and event mean precipitation of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over the central United States. Analysis is performed to determine the environmental conditions conducive to generating the longest-lived MCSs and their subsequent interactions. The simulations show that MCSs systematically form over the Great Plains ahead of a trough in the westerlies in combination with an enhanced low-level jet from the Gulf of Mexico. These environmental properties at the time of storm initiation are most prominent for the MCSs that persist for themore » longest times. Systems reaching 9 h or more in lifetime exhibit feedback to the environment conditions through diabatic heating in the MCS stratiform regions. As a result, the parent synoptic-scale wave is strengthened as a divergent perturbation develops over the MCS at high levels, while a cyclonic circulation perturbation develops in the midlevels of the trough, where the vertical gradient of heating in the MCS region is maximized. The quasi-balanced mesoscale vortex helps to maintain the MCS over a long period of time by feeding dry, cool air into the environment at the rear of the MCS region, so that the MCS can draw in air that increases the evaporative cooling that helps maintain the MCS. At lower levels the south-southeasterly jet of warm moist air from the Gulf is enhanced in the presence of the synoptic-scale wave. That moisture supply is essential to the continued redevelopment of the MCS.« less

Adverse events following cervical manipulative therapy: consensus on classification among Dutch medical specialists, manual therapists, and patients.

PubMed

Kranenburg, Hendrikus A; Lakke, Sandra E; Schmitt, Maarten A; Van der Schans, Cees P

2017-12-01

To obtain consensus-based agreement on a classification system of adverse events (AE) following cervical spinal manipulation. The classification system should be comprised of clear definitions, include patients' and clinicians' perspectives, and have an acceptable number of categories. Design : A three-round Delphi study. Participants : Thirty Dutch participants (medical specialists, manual therapists, and patients) participated in an online survey. Procedure : Participants inventoried AE and were asked about their preferences for either a three- or a four-category classification system. The identified AE were classified by two analysts following the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF), and the International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10). Participants were asked to classify the severity for all AE in relation to the time duration. Consensus occurred in a three-category classification system. There was strong consensus for 16 AE in all severities (no, minor, and major AE) and all three time durations [hours, days, weeks]. The 16 AE included anxiety, flushing, skin rash, fainting, dizziness, coma, altered sensation, muscle tenderness, pain, increased pain during movement, radiating pain, dislocation, fracture, transient ischemic attack, stroke, and death. Mild to strong consensus was reached for 13 AE. A consensus-based classification system of AE is established which includes patients' and clinicians' perspectives and has three categories. The classification comprises a precise description of potential AE in accordance with internationally accepted classifications. After international validation, clinicians and researchers may use this AE classification system to report AE in clinical practice and research.

An Evaluation of Marine Fog Forecast Concepts and a Preliminary Design for a Marine Obscuration Forecast System.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-06-01

the upwelling zone, low-level subsidence such as found in the semi-permanent subtropical high, and coastal mountain ranges. In order for marine fog...patterns, or in downslope flow off coastal mountain ranges. Descriptions of linkages between fog types and characteristics and synoptic and mesoscale...quadrant)in t0e layer between 500- 1500 m. Since the orientation of the mountain ranges along the coast is approximately north to south this

Analysis and High-Resolution Modeling of Tropical Cyclogenesis During the TCS-08 and TPARC Field Campaign

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-13

synoptic and dynamic aspects of cyclogenesis, a multi-nested WRF model (with 2 km resolution in the innermost mesh) will be used to simulate both...intraseasonal and interannual variability of TC activity in the WNP. For the data assimilation task, WRF 3DVar assimilation system will be employed...simulated using WRF . This genesis is associated with Rossby wave energy dispersion of a pre- existing TC Bills (2000). Using the reanalysis data as an

Aircraft Command in Emergency Situations (ACES). Phase 1: Concept Development

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-04-01

progresses through a sequence of four stages: incipient, smoldeang, flame, and heat ( ASHREA Handbook 1984 Systems, Chapter 38, Fire and Sino’.e Control...CARGO F FCARGO DETI DET 2 1D DET2 Figure 6-9. Synoptic Display Layout for Concept R SMOKE HEATt I I 110 T AFTCARGO ~HEAT VS TIME SMOKE VS TIME HEAVY 7II...Phosphate Road, Suite 110 , North Charleston, SC 29418. Reference 12 Senturia, S. D., "Fabrication and Evaluation of Polymeric Early-Warning Fire Alarm

A Synoptic Climatology of the Elevated Mixed Layer Inversion Over the Southern Great Plains in Spring

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-08-01

offshore PBL flow along Texas coast at initial time (1200 UTC 4 April). Tick marks along the trajectory are used to denote the simulation hour; the...are taken at tornado Gulf Coast event time at closest upper- air station in an upstream direction with respect to mean low-level flow ). All rain... system starts (subdivided by time of day). A sample day was also discussed. 9 break and thermal inversion layer appears. Above the inversion layer

Polyp morphology: an interobserver evaluation for the Paris classification among international experts.

PubMed

van Doorn, Sascha C; Hazewinkel, Y; East, James E; van Leerdam, Monique E; Rastogi, Amit; Pellisé, Maria; Sanduleanu-Dascalescu, Silvia; Bastiaansen, Barbara A J; Fockens, Paul; Dekker, Evelien

2015-01-01

The Paris classification is an international classification system for describing polyp morphology. Thus far, the validity and reproducibility of this classification have not been assessed. We aimed to determine the interobserver agreement for the Paris classification among seven Western expert endoscopists. A total of 85 short endoscopic video clips depicting polyps were created and assessed by seven expert endoscopists according to the Paris classification. After a digital training module, the same 85 polyps were assessed again. We calculated the interobserver agreement with a Fleiss kappa and as the proportion of pairwise agreement. The interobserver agreement of the Paris classification among seven experts was moderate with a Fleiss kappa of 0.42 and a mean pairwise agreement of 67%. The proportion of lesions assessed as "flat" by the experts ranged between 13 and 40% (P<0.001). After the digital training, the interobserver agreement did not change (kappa 0.38, pairwise agreement 60%). Our study is the first to validate the Paris classification for polyp morphology. We demonstrated only a moderate interobserver agreement among international Western experts for this classification system. Our data suggest that, in its current version, the use of this classification system in daily practice is questionable and it is unsuitable for comparative endoscopic research. We therefore suggest introduction of a simplification of the classification system.

Heavy Thunderstorm Synoptic Climatology and Forcing Mechanisms in Saudi Arabia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghulam, Ayman S.

2010-05-01

Meteorologists are required to provide accurate and comprehensive weather information for planning and operational aviation, agricultural, water projects and also for the public. In general, weather phenomena such as thunderstorms over the area between the tropics and the middle latitudes are not fully understood, particularly in the Middle East area, for many reasons such as: 1) the complexity of the nature of the climate due to the wide-ranging diversity in the topography and landscape in the area; 2) the lack of meteorological data in the area; and 3) the lack of studies on local weather situations. In arid regions such as Saudi Arabia, the spatial and temporal variation of thunderstorms and associated rainfall are essential in determining their effects on social and economic conditions. Thunderstorms form rapidly, due to the fact that the significant heating of the air from the surface and the ensuing rainfall usually occurs within a short period of time. Thus, understanding thunderstorms and rainfall distribution in time and space would be useful for hydrologists, meteorologists and for environmental studies. Research all over the world has shown, however, that consideration of local factors like Low Level Jets (LLJ), moisture flux, sea breezes, and the Red Sea Convergence Zone (RSCZ) would be valuable in thunderstorm prediction. The combined effects of enhanced low-level moisture convergence and layer destabilization due to upslope flow over mountainous terrain has been shown to be responsible for thunderstorm development in otherwise non-favourable conditions. However, there might be other synoptic features associated with heavy thunderstorms or cause them, but these features have not been investigated in any research in Saudi Arabia. Thus, relating the local weather and synoptic situations with those over the middle latitudes will provide a valuable background for the forecasters to issue the medium-range forecasts which are important for many projects. These forecasts become possible when the movement and the development of the mid-latitude disturbances are known very well. To further increase our understanding of the inter-annual variability of thunderstorms in semi-arid areas such as Saudi Arabia, it is necessary to consider the relationship between this variability and the large-scale atmospheric parameters in addition to the geographical features. Moreover, better insight into the monthly variations of the synoptic situations in Saudi Arabia is considered to be important for understanding the broad mechanisms responsible for thunderstorm occurrences in this geographical area. This information is highly important for aviation and other sectors in Saudi Arabia - both public and private. This paper aims to investigate the favourable synoptic environments for heavy thunderstorm initiation and development in Saudi Arabia. The importance of the monthly synoptic analysis of all days (1998-2003), heavy thunderstorm days, and dry days was intended to be demonstrated. Therefore, the monthly mean charts and deviations from the mean (anomalies) of specific meteorological parameters for heavy thunderstorm days and dry days for the months of January-December for the period 1998-2003, was illustrated to examine the synoptic conditions leading to heavy thunderstorm events in Saudi Arabia.

5 CFR 9701.222 - Reconsideration of classification decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY-OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT) DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Classification Classification Process § 9701.222...

5 CFR 9701.222 - Reconsideration of classification decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY-OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT) DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Classification Classification Process § 9701.222...

5 CFR 9701.222 - Reconsideration of classification decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY-OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT) DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Classification Classification Process § 9701.222...

5 CFR 9701.222 - Reconsideration of classification decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY-OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT) DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Classification Classification Process § 9701.222...

Risk-informed radioactive waste classification and reclassification.

PubMed

Croff, Allen G

2006-11-01

Radioactive waste classification systems have been developed to allow wastes having similar hazards to be grouped for purposes of storage, treatment, packaging, transportation, and/or disposal. As recommended in the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements' Report No. 139, Risk-Based Classification of Radioactive and Hazardous Chemical Wastes, a preferred classification system would be based primarily on the health risks to the public that arise from waste disposal and secondarily on other attributes such as the near-term practicalities of managing a waste, i.e., the waste classification system would be risk informed. The current U.S. radioactive waste classification system is not risk informed because key definitions--especially that of high-level waste--are based on the source of the waste instead of its inherent characteristics related to risk. A second important reason for concluding the existing U.S. radioactive waste classification system is not risk informed is there are no general principles or provisions for exempting materials from being classified as radioactive waste which would then allow management without regard to its radioactivity. This paper elaborates the current system for classifying and reclassifying radioactive wastes in the United States, analyzes the extent to which the system is risk informed and the ramifications of its not being so, and provides observations on potential future direction of efforts to address shortcomings in the U.S. radioactive waste classification system as of 2004.

48 CFR 219.303 - Determining North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes and size standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 3 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Determining North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes and size standards. 219.303 Section 219.303 Federal... Programs 219.303 Determining North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes and size standards...

48 CFR 219.303 - Determining North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes and size standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 3 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Determining North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes and size standards. 219.303 Section 219.303 Federal... Programs 219.303 Determining North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes and size standards...

48 CFR 219.303 - Determining North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes and size standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Determining North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes and size standards. 219.303 Section 219.303 Federal... Determining North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes and size standards. Contracting...

48 CFR 219.303 - Determining North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes and size standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Determining North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes and size standards. 219.303 Section 219.303 Federal... Determining North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes and size standards. Contracting...

Effect of noise in principal component analysis with an application to ozone pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsakiri, Katerina G.

This thesis analyzes the effect of independent noise in principal components of k normally distributed random variables defined by a covariance matrix. We prove that the principal components as well as the canonical variate pairs determined from joint distribution of original sample affected by noise can be essentially different in comparison with those determined from the original sample. However when the differences between the eigenvalues of the original covariance matrix are sufficiently large compared to the level of the noise, the effect of noise in principal components and canonical variate pairs proved to be negligible. The theoretical results are supported by simulation study and examples. Moreover, we compare our results about the eigenvalues and eigenvectors in the two dimensional case with other models examined before. This theory can be applied in any field for the decomposition of the components in multivariate analysis. One application is the detection and prediction of the main atmospheric factor of ozone concentrations on the example of Albany, New York. Using daily ozone, solar radiation, temperature, wind speed and precipitation data, we determine the main atmospheric factor for the explanation and prediction of ozone concentrations. A methodology is described for the decomposition of the time series of ozone and other atmospheric variables into the global term component which describes the long term trend and the seasonal variations, and the synoptic scale component which describes the short term variations. By using the Canonical Correlation Analysis, we show that solar radiation is the only main factor between the atmospheric variables considered here for the explanation and prediction of the global and synoptic scale component of ozone. The global term components are modeled by a linear regression model, while the synoptic scale components by a vector autoregressive model and the Kalman filter. The coefficient of determination, R2, for the prediction of the synoptic scale ozone component was found to be the highest when we consider the synoptic scale component of the time series for solar radiation and temperature. KEY WORDS: multivariate analysis; principal component; canonical variate pairs; eigenvalue; eigenvector; ozone; solar radiation; spectral decomposition; Kalman filter; time series prediction

Evaluate transport processes in MERRA driven chemical transport models using updated 222Rn emission inventories and global observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, B.; Liu, H.; Crawford, J. H.; Fairlie, T. D.; Chen, G.; Chambers, S. D.; Kang, C. H.; Williams, A. G.; Zhang, K.; Considine, D. B.; Payer Sulprizio, M.; Yantosca, R.

2015-12-01

Convective and synoptic processes play a major role in determining the transport and distribution of trace gases and aerosols in the troposphere. The representation of these processes in global models (at ~100-1000 km horizontal resolution) is challenging, because convection is a sub-grid process and needs to be parameterized, while synoptic processes are close to the grid scale. Depending on the parameterization schemes used in climate models, the role of convection in transporting trace gases and aerosols may vary from model to model. 222Rn is a chemically inert and radioactive gas constantly emitted from soil and has a half-life (3.8 days) comparable to synoptic timescale, which makes it an effective tracer for convective and synoptic transport. In this study, we evaluate the convective and synoptic transport in two chemical transport models (GMI and GEOS-Chem), both driven by the NASA's MERRA reanalysis. Considering the uncertainties in 222Rn emissions, we incorporate two more recent scenarios with regionally varying 222Rn emissions into GEOS-Chem/MERRA and compare the simulation results with those using the relatively uniform 222Rn emissions in the standard model. We evaluate the global distribution and seasonality of 222Rn concentrations simulated by the two models against an extended collection of 222Rn observations from 1970s to 2010s. The intercomparison will improve our understanding of the spatial variability in global 222Rn emissions, including the suspected excessive 222Rn emissions in East Asia, and provide useful feedbacks on 222Rn emission models. We will assess 222Rn vertical distributions at different latitudes in the models using observations at surface sites and in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Results will be compared with previous models driven by other meteorological fields (e.g., fvGCM and GEOS4). Since the decay of 222Rn is the source of 210Pb, a useful radionuclide tracer attached to submicron aerosols, improved understanding of emissions and transport of 222Rn will provide insights into the transport, distribution, and wet deposition of 210Pb aerosols.

Temperature histories in liquid and solid polar stratospheric cloud formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larsen, Niels; Knudsen, Bjørn M.; Rosen, James M.; Kjome, Norman T.; Neuber, Roland; Kyrö, Esko

1997-10-01

Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) have been observed by balloonborne backscatter sondes from Alert, Thule, Heiss Island, Scoresbysund, Sodankylä, Søndre Strømfjord, and Ny Ȧlesund during winters 1989, 1990, 1995, and 1996 in 30 flights. The observations can be categorized into two main groups: type 1a and type 1b PSC particles. Type 1b PSCs show the characteristics expected from liquid ternary solution (HNO3/H2SO4/H2O) particles, consistent with model simulations. Type 1a PSCs are observed at all temperatures below the condensation temperature TNAT of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT), consistent with solid NAT composition. Air parcel trajectories have been calculated for all observations to provide synoptic temperature histories of the observed particles. A number of cases have been identified, where the particles have experienced temperatures close to or above the sulfuric acid tetrahydrate melting temperatures within 20 days prior to observation. This assures a knowledge of the physical phase (liquid) of the particles at this time, prior to observation. The subsequent synoptic temperature histories, between melting and the time of observation, show pronounced differences for type 1a and type 1b PSC particles, indicating the qualitative temperature conditions, necessary to generate solid type 1a PSCs. The temperature histories of type 1b particles show smoothly, in most cases monotonic, decreasing temperatures. The temperature can apparently decrease to the frost point without causing the particles to freeze. The type 1b PSC particles are mostly observed shortly after entering a cold region. The observed type 1a particles have spent several days at temperatures close to or below TNAT prior to observation, often associated with several synoptic temperature oscillations around TNAT, and the particles are observed in aged clouds. It appears that the PSC particles may freeze, if they experience synoptic temperatures below TNAT with a duration of at least 1 day, possibly accompanied by several temperature oscillations. However, liquid particles that experience a smooth cooling, even to very low temperatures, or single smooth cooling/heating below TNAT without synoptic temperature fluctuations do not seem to freeze.