Geochemical Data for Upper Mineral Creek, Colorado, Under Existing Ambient Conditions and During an Experimental pH Modification, August 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runkel, Robert L.; Kimball, Briant A.; Steiger, Judy I.; Walton-Day, Katherine

2009-01-01

Mineral Creek, an acid mine drainage stream in south-western Colorado, was the subject of a water-quality study that employed a paired synoptic approach. Under the paired synoptic approach, two synoptic sampling campaigns were conducted on the same study reach. The initial synoptic campaign, conducted August 22, 2005, documented stream-water quality under existing ambient conditions. A second synoptic campaign, conducted August 24, 2005, documented stream-water quality during a pH-modification experiment that elevated the pH of Mineral Creek. The experimental pH modification was designed to determine the potential reductions in dissolved constituent concentrations that would result from the implementation of an active treatment system for acid mine drainage. During both synoptic sampling campaigns, a solution containing lithium bromide was injected continuously to allow for the calculation of streamflow using the tracer-dilution method. Synoptic water-quality samples were collected from 30 stream sites and 11 inflow locations along the 2-kilometer study reach. Data from the study provide spatial profiles of pH, concentration, and streamflow under both existing and experimentally-altered conditions. This report presents the data obtained August 21-24, 2005, as well as the methods used for sample collection and data analysis.

Surface-water-quality assessment of the Yakima River basin in Washington: major-and minor-element data for sediment, water, and aquatic biota, 1987-91

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fuhrer, Gregory J.; Fluter, Shelley L.; McKenzie, Stuart W.; Rinella, Joseph F.; Crawford, J. Kent; Cain, Daniel J.; Hornberger, Michelle I.; Bridges, Jennifer L.; Skach, Kenneth A.

1994-01-01

Streambed-sediment samples were collected once from 27 sites in the basin during 1987-91. Suspended-sediment and filtered-water samples were collected monthly and during hydrologic events (including snowmelt and winter rainstorms) at seven sites, and filtered-water samples were collected at least once at an additional 37 sites during synoptic samplings. Unfiltered-water samples were collected at seven sites on a quarterly basis during 1987 only. Samples of aquatic plants were collected once in 1989, and aquatic insects, fish, and clams were collected from 34 sites three times during 1989-90.

An investigation of relationships between meso- and synoptic-scale phenomena

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scoggins, J. R.; Wood, J. E.; Fuelberg, H. E.; Read, W. L.

1972-01-01

Methods based on the vorticity equation, the adiabatic method, the curvature of the vertical wind profile, and the structure of synoptic waves are used to determine areas of positive vertical motion in the mid-troposphere for a period in each season. Parameters indicative of low-level moisture and conditional instability are areas in which mesoscale systems may be present. The best association between mesoscale and synoptic-scale phenomena was found for a period during December when synoptic-scale systems were well developed. A good association between meso- and synoptic-scale events also was found for a period during March, while the poorest association was found for a June period. Daytime surface heating apparently is an important factor in the formation of mesoscale systems during the summer. It is concluded that the formation of mesoscale phenomena may be determined essentially from synoptic-scale conditions during winter, late fall, and early spring.

A synoptic study of the nature and effects of field aligned low energy electron precipitation in the auroral regions. Ph.D. Thesis - Catholic Univ. of America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berko, F. W.

1972-01-01

A synoptic study is presented of field-aligned precipitation events observed during a 16-month period, representing a full 4 pi precession of the satellite orbital plane in magnetic local time. The morphology of this type of precipitation, its nature, and relationships between this phenomenon and other geophysical events are discussed in the context of the 16-month data base.

Enhancement and identification of dust events in the south-west region of Iran using satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taghavi, F.; Owlad, E.; Ackerman, S. A.

2017-03-01

South-west Asia including the Middle East is one of the most prone regions to dust storm events. In recent years, there was an increase in the occurrence of these environmental and meteorological phenomena. Remote sensing could serve as an applicable method to detect and also characterise these events. In this study, two dust enhancement algorithms were used to investigate the behaviour of dust events using satellite data, compare with numerical model output and other satellite products and finally validate with in-situ measurements. The results show that the use of thermal infrared algorithm enhances dust more accurately. The aerosol optical depth from MODIS and output of a Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (DREAM8b) are applied for comparing the results. Ground-based observations of synoptic stations and sun photometers are used for validating the satellite products. To find the transport direction and the locations of the dust sources and the synoptic situations during these events, model outputs (HYSPLIT and NCEP/NCAR) are presented. Comparing the results with synoptic maps and the model outputs showed that using enhancement algorithms is a more reliable way than any other MODIS products or model outputs to enhance the dust.

Tropical synoptic composites in VAS, OLR and TOVS radiance data. [VISSR Atmospheric Sounder, Outgoing Long-wave Radiation, Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcguirk, James P.

1989-01-01

The horizontal structure of specific tropical synoptic features are compared with the features of a zonal mean ITCZ using four different forms of satellite radiance data: daily gridded OLR data, GOES VAS water vapor imagery, brightness temperatures from TOVS water vapor channels (6.7 and 7.3 microns), and brightness temperature vectors for a complete set of TOVS channels. All of the data are composited over many events to minimize the effects of missing data, sampling errors, and system variability. The major differences between the observing systems are examined, focusing on resolution and clouds. It is found that the ITCZ exhibits a zonally symmetric convective phase and an enhanced regional convective phase (plumes), both of which can be differentiated from climatological mean behavior.

Synoptic Sampling to Determine Distributed Groundwater-Surface Water Nitrate Loading and Removal Potential Along a Lowland River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pai, Henry; Villamizar, Sandra R.; Harmon, Thomas C.

2017-11-01

Delineating pollutant reactive transport pathways that connect local land use patterns to surface water is an important goal. This work illustrates high-resolution river mapping of salinity or specific conductance (SC) and nitrate (NO3-) as a potential part of achieving this goal. We observed longitudinal river SC and nitrate distributions using high-resolution synoptic in situ sensing along the lower Merced River (38 river km) in Central California (USA) from 2010 to 2012. We calibrated a distributed groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) discharge model for a conservative solute using 13 synoptic SC sampling events at flows ranging from 1.3 to 31.6 m3 s-1. Nitrogen loads ranged from 0.3 to 1.6 kg N d-1 and were greater following an extended high flow period during a wet winter. Applying the distributed GW-SW discharge estimates to a simplistic reactive nitrate transport model, the model reproduced observed river nitrate distribution well (RRMSE = 5-21%), with dimensionless watershed-averaged nitrate removal (kt) ranging from 0 to 0.43. Estimates were uncertain due to GW nitrate data variability, but the resulting range was consistent with prior removal estimates. At the segment scale, estimated GW-SW nitrate loading ranged from 0 to 17 g NO3- s-1 km-1. Local loading peaked near the middle of the study reach, a location that coincides with a shallow clay lens and with confined animal feed operations in close proximity to the river. Overall, the results demonstrate the potential for high-resolution synoptic monitoring to support GW-SW modeling efforts aimed at understanding and managing nonpoint source pollution.

Sampling theory for asynoptic satellite observations. I Space-time spectra, resolution, and aliasing. II - Fast Fourier synoptic mapping

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salby, M. L.

1982-01-01

An evaluation of the information content of asynoptic data taken in the form of nadir sonde and limb scan observations is presented, and a one-to-one correspondence is established between the alias-free data and twice-daily synoptic maps. Attention is given to space and time limitations of sampling and the orbital geometry is discussed. The sampling pattern is demonstrated to determine unique space-time spectra at all wavenumbers and frequencies. Spectral resolution and aliasing are explored, while restrictions on sampling and information content are defined. It is noted that irregular sampling at high latitudes produces spurious contamination effects. An Asynoptic Sampling Theorem is thereby formulated, as is a Synoptic Retrieval Theorem, in the second part of the article. In the latter, a procedure is developed for retrieving the unique correspondence between the asymptotic data and the synoptic maps. Applications examples are provided using data from the Nimbus-6 satellite.

Synoptic events force biological productivity in Patagonian fjord ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daneri, Giovanni

2016-04-01

The annual cycle of primary productivity of the Patagonian fjords has, to date, been described as a two phase system consisting of a short non productive winter phase (during June and July) and a productive phase extending from late winter (August) to autumn (May). Low levels of primary production, phytoplankton biomass and high concentrations of surface nutrients have been described as characterizing winter conditions while pulsed productivity events typifies the productivity pattern during the extended productive season. Pulsed productivity events characterize coastal waters where inorganic nutrients in surface layers are replenished following periods of intensive utilization by autotrophs. Freshwater input in Patagonian fjords in southern Chile (41-55°S) results in one of the largest estuarine regions worldwide. Here strong haline water column stratification prevents nutrient mixing to the surface layers thus potentially shutting off algal production. Our working hypothesis considered that in order to reconcile the observed pulsed productivity pattern, periodic breaking (associated to surface nutrient replenishment) and re-establishment of estuarine conditions (associated to water column stratification) would be required. Up to now however our understanding of the physical processes that control water column conditions in the Patagonian fjord area has been extremely limited. Here we present evidence linking the passage of synoptic low pressure fronts to pulsed productivity events in the Patagonian fjord area. These front controls and influence local processes of interaction between the fjord and the atmosphere generating a rapid water column response. In the specific case of the Puyuhuapi fjord we have been able to show that such synoptic fronts induce surface flow reversal and water column mixing. Phytoplankton blooming occurs after the passage of the synoptic front once calmer conditions prevail and estuarine conditions are re established. The occurrence of an extremely productive bloom of the dinoflagellate Heterocapsa sp. in July 2014, after the passage of a synoptic low pressure front provided, for the first time, strong evidence that phytoplankton blooming in the Patagonian fjord ecosystems is controlled by synoptic processes and that they are not limited by light as previously reported. This research was funded by COPAS Sur-Austral (PFB-31) and FONDECYT 1131063

Application of satellite data to tropic-subtropic moisture coupling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, Aylmer H.; Mcguirk, James P.

1987-01-01

Common tropical synoptic events, called moisture bursts, have been defined in terms of their appearance in infrared satellite imagery. Their synoptic and climatological behavior over the tropical North Pacific Ocean is described using data from four cool seasons, including the 1982 to 1983 El Nino winter and the January and May of 1979.

Water-quality assessment of the Rio Grande Valley, Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas; occurrence and distribution of selected pesticides and nutrients at selected surface-water sites in the Mesilla Valley, 1994-95

USGS Publications Warehouse

Healy, D.F.

1996-01-01

The Rio Grande Valley study unit of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program conducted a two-phase synoptic study of the occurrence and distribution of pesticides and nutrients in the surface water of the Mesilla Valley, New Mexico and Texas. Phase one, conducted in April-May 1994 during the high-flow irrigation season, consisted of a 6-week time- series sampling event during which 17 water-column samples were collected at 3 main-stem sites on the Rio Grande and a synoptic irrigation-run sampling event during which 19 water-column samples were collected at 7 main-stem sites, 10 drain sites, and 2 sites at the discharges of wastewater-treatment plants. Three samples are included in both the time-series and irrigation-run events. Phase two, conducted in January 1995 during the low-flow non-irrigation season, consisted of a non-irrigation synoptic sampling event during which 18 water-column samples were collected at seven main-stem sites, nine drain sites, and two sites at the discharges of wastewater-treatment plants and a bed- material sampling event during which 6 bed-material samples were collected at six sites near the mouths of drains that discharge to the Rio Grande. The 51 water-column samples were analyzed for 78 pesticides and metabolites and 8 nutrients along with other constituents. The six bed-material samples were analyzed for 21 pesticides and metabolites, gross polychlorinated biphenyls, and gross polychlorinated naphthalenes. The presence of dissolved pesticides in the surface water of the Mesilla Valley is erratic. A total of 100 detections of 17 different pesticides were detected in 44 of the water-column samples. As many as 38 percent of these detections may be attributed to pesticide use upstream from the valley or to nonagricultural pesticide use within the valley. There were 29 detections of 10 different pesticides in 17 samples during the irrigation run and 41 detections of 13 pesticides in 16 samples during the non-irrigation run. Nine pesticides were detected during both phases of the study. The most commonly detected pesticides in the water-column samples were DCPA, which was detected in 29 samples, and metolachlor, which was detected in 17 of the samples. DCPA was detected throughout the Mesilla Valley, whereas metolachlor was detected mainly in the northern and central parts of the valley. The maximum pesticide concentration found during the study was 0.75 microgram per liter of carbofuran, which was detected at the East Side Drain site during the irrigation run. No water-column pesticide concentration exceeded U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's drinking-water standards or any applicable Federal or State criteria or guidelines. A total of 21 occurrences of six pesticides and metabolites were found in the bed-material samples. Chlordane, diazinon, and methyl parathion were detected once each, whereas DDD, DDE, and DDT were detected at all six bed-material sites. Water-column samples for the analysis of nutrient concentrations were collected at all sampling sites during both phases of the study. The concentrations of each nutrient ranged from at or below the individual minimum reporting level to as much as two or three orders of magnitude larger than the minimum reporting level. The concentration of each nutrient was left skewed with most of the values toward the lower end of the range. The larger concentrations of each nutrient, except dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, were associated with wastewater-treatment- plant sites 4 and 16. The larger concentrations of dissolved nitrite plus nitrate were generally associated with the non- irrigation run; however, the largest concentration was at site 4 during the irrigation run. During this study, the Mesilla Valley as a unit was a source of nutrients to the Rio Grande. Wi

More frequent showers and thunderstorms under a warming climate: evidence observed in Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, H.; Fetzer, E. J.; Wong, S.; Lambrigtsen, B.; Wang, T.; Chen, L. L.; Von, D.

2015-12-01

This study uses historical records of synoptic observations over northern Eurasia to examine changing frequency of precipitation associated with large synoptic events versus convective and thunderstorm activities. We found days associated with showers and precipitation accompanied by thunderstorms have been increasing in general during the study period of 1966-2000 while the total wet day frequency has been decreasing in all seasons. This study suggests increasing convective and severe weather-related precipitation events may be a significant contributor to higher intensity and more extreme precipitation under a warming climate.

Spatio-temporal dynamics and synoptic characteristics of wet and drought extremes in Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utkuzova, Dilyara; Khan, Valentina

2015-04-01

Synoptical-statistical analysis has been conducted using SPI index calculated for 478 stations with records from 1966 through 2013. Different parameters of SPI frequency distribution and long-term tendencies were calculated as well as spatial characteristics indicating drought and wetness propagation. Results of analysis demonstrate that during last years there is a tendency of increasing of the intensity of draught and wetness extremes over Russia. There are fewer droughts in the northern regions. The drought propagation for the European territory of Russia is decreasing in June and August, and increasing in July. The situation is opposite for the wetness tendencies. For the Asian territory of Russia, the drought propagation is significantly increasing in July along with decreasing wetness trend. Synoptic conditions favorable for the formation of wet and drought extremes were identified by comparing synoptic charts with the spatial patterns of SPI. For synoptic analysis, episodes of extremely wet (6 episodes for the APR and 7 episodes for the EPR) and drought (6 episodes for the APR and 6 for the EPR) events were classified using A. Katz' typology of weather regimes. For European part of Russia, extreme DROUGHT events are linked to the weather type named "MIXED", for Asian part of Russia - the type "CENTRAL". For European part of Russia, extreme WET events associated with "CENTRAL" type. There is a displacement of the planetary frontal zone into southward direction approximately for 5-25 degrees relatively to normal climatological position during WET extreme events linked to «EASTERN» classification type. Intercomparison of SPI calculated on the base of NOAA NCEP CPC CAMS for the same period and with the resolution 0,5 degree, month precipitation data, Era-Interim Daily fields archive for the period 1979-2014 with the resolution 0,5 degree reanalysis and observational precipitation data was done. The results of comparative analysis has been discussed.

Combining dispersion modelling with synoptic patterns to understand the wind-borne transport into the UK of the bluetongue disease vector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burgin, Laura; Ekström, Marie; Dessai, Suraje

2017-07-01

Bluetongue, an economically important animal disease, can be spread over long distances by carriage of insect vectors ( Culicoides biting midges) on the wind. The weather conditions which influence the midge's flight are controlled by synoptic scale atmospheric circulations. A method is proposed that links wind-borne dispersion of the insects to synoptic circulation through the use of a dispersion model in combination with principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis. We illustrate how to identify the main synoptic situations present during times of midge incursions into the UK from the European continent. A PCA was conducted on high-pass-filtered mean sea-level pressure data for a domain centred over north-west Europe from 2005 to 2007. A clustering algorithm applied to the PCA scores indicated the data should be divided into five classes for which averages were calculated, providing a classification of the main synoptic types present. Midge incursion events were found to mainly occur in two synoptic categories; 64.8% were associated with a pattern displaying a pressure gradient over the North Atlantic leading to moderate south-westerly flow over the UK and 17.9% of the events occurred when high pressure dominated the region leading to south-easterly or easterly winds. The winds indicated by the pressure maps generally compared well against observations from a surface station and analysis charts. This technique could be used to assess frequency and timings of incursions of virus into new areas on seasonal and decadal timescales, currently not possible with other dispersion or biological modelling methods.

Evaluation of the synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koch, S. E.; Skillman, W. C.; Kocin, P. J.; Wetzel, P. J.; Brill, K.; Keyser, D. A.; Mccumber, M. C.

1983-01-01

The overall performance characteristics of a limited area, hydrostatic, fine (52 km) mesh, primitive equation, numerical weather prediction model are determined in anticipation of satellite data assimilations with the model. The synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of version 2.0 of this model, the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS 2.0), were evaluated. The two part study is based on a sample of approximately thirty 12h and 24h forecasts of atmospheric flow patterns during spring and early summer. The synoptic scale evaluation results benchmark the performance of MASS 2.0 against that of an operational, synoptic scale weather prediction model, the Limited area Fine Mesh (LFM). The large sample allows for the calculation of statistically significant measures of forecast accuracy and the determination of systematic model errors. The synoptic scale benchmark is required before unsmoothed mesoscale forecast fields can be seriously considered.

Warm-season severe wind events in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gatzen, Christoph

2013-04-01

A 15-year data set of wind measurements was analyzed with regard to warm season severe wind gusts in Germany. For April to September of the years 1997 to 2011, 1035 wind measurements of 26 m/s or greater were found. These wind reports were associated with 268 wind events. In total, 252 convective wind events contributed to 837 (81%) of the wind reports, 16 non-convective synoptic-scale wind events contributed to 198 reports (19%). Severe wind events were found with synoptic situations characterized by rather strong mid-level flow and advancing mid-level troughs. Severe convective wind events were analyzed using radar images and classified with respect to the observed radar structure. The most important convective mode was squall lines that were associated with one third of all severe wind gusts, followed by groups, bow echo complexes, and bow echoes. Supercells and cells were not associated with many wind reports. The low contribution of isolated cells indicates that rather large-scale forcing by synoptic-scale features like fronts is important for German severe wind events. Bow echoes were found to be present for 58% of all wind reports. The movement speed of bow echoes indicated a large variation with a maximum speed of 33 m/s. Extreme wind events as well as events with more than 15 wind reports were found to be related to higher movement speeds. Concentrating on the most intense events, derechos seem to be very important to the warm season wind threat in Germany. Convective events with a path length of more than 400 km contributed to 36% of all warm-season wind gusts in this data set. Furthermore, eight of nine extreme gusts exceeding 40 m/s were recorded with derecho events.

Marine Air Penetration: The Effect of Synoptic-scale Change on Regional Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Ullrich, P. A.

2016-12-01

Marine air penetration (MAP) around the California San Francisco Bay Delta region has a pronounced impact on local temperature and air quality, and is highly correlated with inland wind penetration and hence wind power generation. Observational MAP criteria are defined based on the 900hPa across-shore wind speed greater than or equal to 3m/s at the Oakland radiosonde station, and a surface temperature difference greater than or equal to 7 degrees Celsius between two California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) stations at Fresno, CA and Lodi, CA. This choice reflects marine cooling of Lodi, and was found to be highly correlated with inland specific humidity and breeze front activity. The observational MAP criteria were tuned based on small biases from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) to selected MAP days from CFSR, to identify synoptic-scale indicators associated with MAP events. A multivariate logistic regression model was constructed based on the selected five synoptic indicators from CFSR and demonstrated good model performance. Two synoptic-scale patterns were identified and analyzed out of the 32 categories from the regression model, suggesting a strong influence from the off-shore trough and the inland thermal ridge on MAP events. Future projection of MAP events included the 21st century Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and Variable resolution in the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM). Both showed no statistically significant trend associated with MAP events through the end of this century under both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5.

The synoptic- and planetary-scale environments associated with significant 1000-hPa geostrophic wind events along the Beaufort Sea coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooke, Melanie

The substantial interannual variability and the observed warming trend of the Beaufort Sea region are important motivators for the study of regional climate and weather there. In an attempt to further our understanding of strong wind events, which can drive sea ice dynamics and storm surges, their characteristic environments at the synoptic and planetary scales are defined and analysed using global reanalysis data. A dependency on an enhanced or suppressed Aleutian low is found. This produces either a strong southeasterly or north-westerly 1000-hPa geostrophic wind event. The characteristic mid-tropospheric patterns for these two distinct event types show similarities to the positive and negative Pacific/North American teleconnection patterns, but their correlations have yet to be assessed.

Storm-Based Fluvial Inputs: Nutrient, Phytoplankton, and Carbon Dioxide Responses in a Tropical Embayment, Kane'ohe Bay, Hawai'i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drupp, P. S.; de Carlo, E. H.; MacKenzie, F. T.; Bienfang, P.

2010-12-01

This work describes use of a buoy system to monitor, autonomously, pCO2 and water quality responses to land-derived nutrient inputs and the physical forcings associated with local storm events. These data represent 2.5 years of near-real time observations at a fixed station, collected concurrently with spatially distributed synoptic sampling over larger sections of Kaneohe Bay, Oahu, Hawaii. Nutrient loadings from direct rainfall and/or terrestrial runoff produce an immediate increase in the N:P ratio of bay waters up to 48, and drive phytoplankton biomass growth. Rapid uptake of nutrient input subsidies by phytoplankton causes a rapid decline of pCO2 and nitrogen, before a return to baseline levels with the subsequent decline of phytoplankton biomass over time scales ranging from a few days to several weeks, depending on the conditions and proximity to the sources of runoff. This work exemplifies the utility of combining synoptic sampling and real-time autonomous observations to elucidate the responses of coastal tropical coral reef systems to climatic perturbations over the array of time scales (hours to annual) on which they occur. Many subtropical and tropical systems throughout the Pacific Ocean are similar to Kaneohe Bay and our studies of how coral reef ecosystems respond under conditions of increased ocean acidification provides an important indication of the variability and range of CO2 dynamics that are likely to exist elsewhere. Such variability must be taken into account in any analysis of the direction and magnitude of the air-sea CO2 exchange for the integrated coastal ocean, both proximal and distal. Finally, it cannot be overemphasized that our work illustrates several examples of how high frequency sampling provided by a moored autonomous system can provide details about ecosystem responses to stochastic atmospheric forcing, which are commonly missed by traditional synoptic observational approaches. Figure 1: pCO2 levels and nitrate concentrations from 9/27/07 - 12/10/07. Storm events on 11/4 and 12/4 lead to a spike in nitrate and a corresponding drawdown of pCO2 due to phytoplankton blooms in response to the nutrient subsidy.

Longshore water-current velocity and the potential for transport of contaminants—A pilot study in Lake Erie from Walnut Creek to Presque Isle State Park beaches, Erie, Pennsylvania, June and August 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hittle, Elizabeth A.

2017-04-20

Bacteria-driven restrictions and (or) advisories on swimming at beaches in Presque Isle State Park (PISP), Erie, Pennsylvania, can occur during the summer months. One of the suspected sources of bacteria is sediment. A terrestrial sediment source to the west of PISP is Walnut Creek, which discharges to Lake Erie about 8.5 kilometers southwest of PISP Beach 1. On June 24, June 25, August 18, and August 19, 2015, synoptic surveys were conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Sea Grant, in Lake Erie between Walnut Creek and PISP Beach 1 to characterize the water-current velocity and direction to determine whether sediment from Walnut Creek could be affecting the PISP beaches. Water-quality data (temperature, specific conductance, and turbidity) were collected in conjunction with the synoptic surveys in June. Water-quality data (Escherichia coli [E. coli] bacteria, temperature, and turbidity) were collected about a meter from the shore (nearshore) on June 24, August 19, and after a precipitation event on August 11, 2015. Additionally, suspended sediment was collected nearshore on June 24 and August 11, 2015. Samples collected near Walnut Creek during all three bacterial sampling events contained higher counts than other samples. Counts steadily decreased from west to east, then increased about 1–2 kilometers from PISP Beach 1; however, this study was not focused on examining other potential sources of bacteria.The Velocity Mapping Toolbox (VMT) was used to process the water-current synoptic surveys, and the results were visualized within ArcMap. For the survey accomplished on June 24, 2015, potential paths a particle could take between Walnut Creek and PSIP Beach 1 if conditions remained steady over a number of hours were visualized. However, the water-current velocity and direction were variable from one day to the other, indicating this was likely an unrealistic assumption for the study area. This analysis was not accomplished for the other surveys due to unsteady lake conditions encountered on June 25 and August 18, and reduced quality of the survey on August 19.

A Synoptic Climatology of the Elevated Mixed Layer Inversion Over the Southern Great Plains in Spring

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-08-01

offshore PBL flow along Texas coast at initial time (1200 UTC 4 April). Tick marks along the trajectory are used to denote the simulation hour; the...are taken at tornado Gulf Coast event time at closest upper- air station in an upstream direction with respect to mean low-level flow ). All rain... system starts (subdivided by time of day). A sample day was also discussed. 9 break and thermal inversion layer appears. Above the inversion layer

Analysis of synoptic patterns in relationship with severe rainfall events in the Ebre Observatory (Catalonia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Casas-Castillo, M. Carmen; Peña, Juan Carlos; Aran, Montserrat; Rodríguez-Solà, Raúl; Redaño, Angel; Solé, German

2018-03-01

The study has obtained a classification of the synoptic patterns associated with a selection of extreme rain episodes registered in the Ebre Observatory between 1905 and 2003, showing a return period of not less than 10 years for any duration from 5 min to 24 h. These episodes had been previously classified in four rainfall intensity groups attending to their meteorological time scale. The synoptic patterns related to every group have been obtained applying a multivariable analysis to three atmospheric levels: sea-level pressure, temperature, and geopotential at 500 hPa. Usually, the synoptic patterns associated with intense rain in southern Catalonia are featured by low-pressure systems advecting warm and wet air from the Mediterranean Sea at the low levels of the troposphere. The configuration in the middle levels of the troposphere is dominated by negative anomalies of geopotential, indicating the presence of a low or a cold front, and temperature anomalies, promoting the destabilization of the atmosphere. These configurations promote the occurrence of severe convective events due to the difference of temperature between the low and medium levels of troposphere and the contribution of humidity in the lowest levels of the atmosphere.

A Synoptic Weather Typing Approach and Its application to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Weather Events at Local Scale in South-Central Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shouquan Cheng, Chad; Li, Qian; Li, Guilong

2010-05-01

The synoptic weather typing approach has become popular in evaluating the impacts of climate change on a variety of environmental problems. One of the reasons is its ability to categorize a complex set of meteorological variables as a coherent index, which can facilitate analyses of local climate change impacts. The weather typing method has been successfully applied in Environment Canada for several research projects to analyze climatic change impacts on a number of extreme weather events, such as freezing rain, heavy rainfall, high-/low-flow events, air pollution, and human health. These studies comprise of three major parts: (1) historical simulation modeling to verify the extreme weather events, (2) statistical downscaling to provide station-scale future hourly/daily climate data, and (3) projections of changes in frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events in this century. To achieve these goals, in addition to synoptic weather typing, the modeling conceptualizations in meteorology and hydrology and a number of linear/nonlinear regression techniques were applied. Furthermore, a formal model result verification process has been built into each of the three parts of the projects. The results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables predicted by the models, showed very good agreement. The modeled results from these projects found that the frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events are projected to significantly increase under a changing climate in this century. This talk will introduce these research projects and outline the modeling exercise and result verification process. The major findings on future projections from the studies will be summarized in the presentation as well. One of the major conclusions from the studies is that the procedures (including synoptic weather typing) used in the studies are useful for climate change impact analysis on future extreme weather events. The implication of the significant increases in frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events would be useful to be considered when revising engineering infrastructure design standards and developing adaptation strategies and policies.

A Multiple-Tracer Approach for Identifying Sewage Sources to an Urban Stream System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hyer, Kenneth Edward

2007-01-01

The presence of human-derived fecal coliform bacteria (sewage) in streams and rivers is recognized as a human health hazard. The source of these human-derived bacteria, however, is often difficult to identify and eliminate, because sewage can be delivered to streams through a variety of mechanisms, such as leaking sanitary sewers or private lateral lines, cross-connected pipes, straight pipes, sewer-line overflows, illicit dumping of septic waste, and vagrancy. A multiple-tracer study was conducted to identify site-specific sources of sewage in Accotink Creek, an urban stream in Fairfax County, Virginia, that is listed on the Commonwealth's priority list of impaired streams for violations of the fecal coliform bacteria standard. Beyond developing this multiple-tracer approach for locating sources of sewage inputs to Accotink Creek, the second objective of the study was to demonstrate how the multiple-tracer approach can be applied to other streams affected by sewage sources. The tracers used in this study were separated into indicator tracers, which are relatively simple and inexpensive to apply, and confirmatory tracers, which are relatively difficult and expensive to analyze. Indicator tracers include fecal coliform bacteria, surfactants, boron, chloride, chloride/bromide ratio, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, and water temperature. Confirmatory tracers include 13 organic compounds that are associated with human waste, including caffeine, cotinine, triclosan, a number of detergent metabolites, several fragrances, and several plasticizers. To identify sources of sewage to Accotink Creek, a detailed investigation of the Accotink Creek main channel, tributaries, and flowing storm drains was undertaken from 2001 to 2004. Sampling was conducted in a series of eight synoptic sampling events, each of which began at the most downstream site and extended upstream through the watershed and into the headwaters of each tributary. Using the synoptic sampling approach, 149 sites were sampled at least one time for indicator tracers; 52 of these sites also were sampled for confirmatory tracers at least one time. Through the analysis of multiple-tracer levels in the synoptic samples, three major sewage sources to the Accotink Creek stream network were identified, and several other minor sewage sources to the Accotink Creek system likely deserve additional investigation. Near the end of the synoptic sampling activities, three additional sampling methods were used to gain better understanding of the potential for sewage sources to the watershed. These additional sampling methods included optical brightener monitoring, intensive stream sampling using automated samplers, and additional sampling of several storm-drain networks. The samples obtained by these methods provided further understanding of possible sewage sources to the streams and a better understanding of the variability in the tracer concentrations at a given sampling site. Collectively, these additional sampling methods were a valuable complement to the synoptic sampling approach that was used for the bulk of this study. The study results provide an approach for local authorities to use in applying a relatively simple and inexpensive collection of tracers to locate sewage sources to streams. Although this multiple-tracer approach is effective in detecting sewage sources to streams, additional research is needed to better detect extremely low-volume sewage sources and better enable local authorities to identify the specific sources of the sewage once it is detected in a stream reach.

Analysis of southeast Australian zooplankton observations of 1938-42 using synoptic oceanographic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baird, Mark E.; Everett, Jason D.; Suthers, Iain M.

2011-03-01

The research vessel Warreen obtained 1742 planktonic samples along the continental shelf and slope of southeast Australia from 1938-42, representing the earliest spatially and temporally resolved zooplankton data from Australian marine waters. In this paper, Warreen observations along the southeast Australian seaboard from 28°S to 38°S are interpreted based on synoptic meteorological and oceanographic conditions and ocean climatologies. Meteorological conditions are based on the NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis Project; oceanographic conditions use Warreen hydrological observations, and the ocean climatology is the CSIRO Atlas of Regional Seas. The Warreen observations were undertaken in waters on average 0.45 °C cooler than the climatological average, and included the longest duration El Niño of the 20th century. In northern New South Wales (NSW), week time-scale events dominate zooplankton response. In August 1940 an unusual winter upwelling event occurred in northern NSW driven by a stronger than average East Australian Current (EAC) and anomalous northerly winds that resulted in high salp and larvacean abundance. In January 1941 a strong upwelling event between 28° and 33°S resulted in a filament of upwelled water being advected south and alongshore, which was low in zooplankton biovolume. In southern NSW a seasonal cycle in physical and planktonic characteristics is observed. In January 1941 the poleward extension of the EAC was strong, advecting more tropical tunicate species southward. Zooplankton abundance and distribution on the continental shelf and slope are more dependent on weekly to monthly timescales on local oceanographic and meteorological conditions than continental-scale interannual trends. The interpretation of historical zooplankton observations of the waters off southeast Australia for the purpose of quantifying anthropogenic impacts will be improved with the use of regional hindcasts of synoptic ocean and atmospheric weather that can explain some of the physically forced natural variability.

Future Changes in Autumn Flood Type and Frequency in Pacific Northwest North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menounos, B.; Cannon, A. J.; Radic, V.; Moore, R. D.; Dery, S. J.; Jackson, P. L.; Anslow, F. S.

2013-12-01

During the 20th and early 21st century, autumn storms in the Pacific Northwest of North America - PNWNA (coastal British Columbia and Washington) caused widespread flooding and landslides. Understanding how these intense storms are likely to change in the future is important given their potential to harm people and cause widespread damage, but assessing these changes using climate models is difficult. Parameterization of precipitation in general circulation and regional climate models (GCM, RCM) is prone to error, especially in the mountainous terrain of the PNWNA. High computational demands of RCMs also limits their use in assessing changes in flood type and frequency for a suite of GCM and emission scenarios. We instead focus our efforts on understanding atmospheric circulation patterns responsible for historical autumn flooding (15 August - 31 December) and examine how these synoptic conditions are likely to change under future emission scenarios. Our analysis includes identification of extreme events (runoff and precipitation) in streamflow and precipitation records from coastal Washington and British Columbia for the period 1948-2010. Our methods to link the instrumental record of extreme autumn events to atmospheric conditions (500 and 850 hPa geopotential height and integrated vapor transport obtained from NCEP and CFSR reanalysis) include: (1) compositing of streamflow and precipitation events (environment-to-circulation); (2) self organizing map synoptic classification (circulation-to-environment); and (3) regression tree synoptic classification (hybrid of environment-to-circulation and circulation-to-environment). We then evaluate changes in flood-generating synoptic types in the CMIP5 ensemble over the period 2010-2100. Our analysis indicates that, as expected, most floods are associated with atmospheric river events that are commonly associated with upper level, quasi stationary low- and high-pressure systems respectively located in the Gulf of Alaska and east of the PNWNA. Based on our initial analysis of the CMIP5 data, we note an increase in autumn flood-producing synoptic weather types for the PNWNA. We discuss the implications of increased autumn flooding to communities and infrastructure.

Assessment of dissolved-solids loading to the Colorado River in the Paradox Basin between the Dolores River and Gypsum Canyon, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shope, Christopher L.; Gerner, Steven J.

2014-01-01

Salinity loads throughout the Colorado River Basin have been a concern over recent decades due to adverse impacts on population, natural resources, and regional economics. With substantial financial resources and various reclamation projects, the salt loading to Lake Powell and associated total dissolved-solids concentrations in the Lower Colorado River Basin have been substantially reduced. The Colorado River between its confluence with the Dolores River and Lake Powell traverses a physiographic area where saline sedimentary formations and evaporite deposits are prevalent. However, the dissolved-solids loading in this area is poorly understood due to the paucity of water-quality data. From 2003 to 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation conducted four synoptic sampling events to quantify the salinity loading throughout the study reach and evaluate the occurrence and impacts of both natural and anthropogenic sources. The results from this study indicate that under late-summer base-flow conditions, dissolved-solids loading in the reach is negligible with the exception of the Green River, and that variations in calculated loads between synoptic sampling events are within measurement and analytical uncertainties. The Green River contributed approximately 22 percent of the Colorado River dissolved-solids load, based on samples collected at the lower end of the study reach. These conclusions are supported by water-quality analyses for chloride and bromide, and the results of analyses for the stable isotopes of oxygen and deuterium. Overall, no significant sources of dissolved-solids loading from tributaries or directly by groundwater discharge, with the exception of the Green River, were identified in the study area.

Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

2005-01-01

This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

Lodgepole pine site index in relation to synoptic measures of climate, soil moisture and soil nutrients.

Treesearch

G. Geoff Wang; Shongming Huang; Robert A. Monserud; Ryan J. Klos

2004-01-01

Lodgepole pine site index was examined in relation to synoptic measures of topography, soil moisture, and soil nutrients in Alberta. Data came from 214 lodgepole pine-dominated stands sampled as a part of the provincial permanent sample plot program. Spatial location (elevation, latitude, and longitude) and natural subregions (NSRs) were topographic variables that...

Cyclone-induced rapid creation of extreme Antarctic sea ice conditions

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhaomin; Turner, John; Sun, Bo; Li, Bingrui; Liu, Chengyan

2014-01-01

Two polar vessels, Akademik Shokalskiy and Xuelong, were trapped by thick sea ice in the Antarctic coastal region just to the west of 144°E and between 66.5°S and 67°S in late December 2013. This event demonstrated the rapid establishment of extreme Antarctic sea ice conditions on synoptic time scales. The event was associated with cyclones that developed at lower latitudes. Near the event site, cyclone-enhanced strong southeasterly katabatic winds drove large westward drifts of ice floes. In addition, the cyclones also gave southward ice drift. The arrival and grounding of Iceberg B9B in Commonwealth Bay in March 2011 led to the growth of fast ice around it, forming a northward protruding barrier. This barrier blocked the westward ice drift and hence aided sea ice consolidation on its eastern side. Similar cyclone-induced events have occurred at this site in the past after the grounding of Iceberg B9B. Future events may be predictable on synoptic time scales, if cyclone-induced strong wind events can be predicted. PMID:24937550

Impact of synoptic weather patterns on 24 h-average PM2.5 concentrations in the North China Plain during 2013-2017.

PubMed

Zhang, Hao; Yuan, Haiou; Liu, Xiaohui; Yu, Junyi; Jiao, Yongli

2018-06-15

North China Plain area (NCP) is one of the most densely populated and heavily polluted regions in the world. In the last five years, frequently happened fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) serious pollution events were one of the top environmental concerns in China. As PM 2.5 concentrations are highly influenced by synoptic flow patterns and local meteorological conditions, a two-stage hierarchical clustering method based on dynamic principal component analysis (DPCA) and standard k-means clustering algorithm was employed to classify synoptic wind fields into 6 patterns over the NCP area using the data of 5 PM 2.5 seasons (Sept. 15th-Apr. 15th) from 2013 to 2017. Among the six identified synoptic patterns, pattern of uniform pressure field (U) and that of zonal high pressure (Z H ) accounted for 78.21%, 65.55%, 63.56%, 57.11%, 59.13% and 58.27% studied heavy smog pollution events in Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, Baoding, Shijiazhuang and Xingtai city. The two particular patterns were associated with uniform pressure field and sparsely latitudinal isobar in 850 hPa level, respectively. They were also characterized by high relative humidity, low temperature, low-speed northerly wind in Tianjin and Tangshan, and southerly wind in the other cities. Under the continuous control of pattern Z H , the values of 24 h-average PM 2.5 were found to increase at a rate of 31.78 μg/m 3 per day. To evaluate the contribution of meteorological factors and precursors to PM 2.5 levels, linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) were applied to establish relations among 24 h-average PM 2.5 concentrations, concentrations of main precursors, local meteorological factors and synoptic patterns. Results show that the variations of precursors, local meteorological factors and synoptic flow patterns can explain 51.67%, 19.15% and 14.01% changes of the 24 h-average PM 2.5 concentrations, respectively. This study illustrates that dense precursor emissions are still the main cause for heavy haze pollution events, although meteorological conditions play almost equal roles sometimes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Synoptic Weather Typing Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Meteorological and Hydrological Risks at Local Scale in South-Central Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Chad Shouquan; Li, Qian; Li, Guilong

2010-05-01

The synoptic weather typing approach has become popular in evaluating the impacts of climate change on a variety of environmental problems. One of the reasons is its ability to categorize a complex set of meteorological variables as a coherent index, which can facilitate analyses of local climate change impacts. The weather typing method has been applied in Environment Canada to analyze climatic change impacts on various meteorological/hydrological risks, such as freezing rain, heavy rainfall, high-/low-flow events, air pollution, and human health. These studies comprise of three major parts: (1) historical simulation modeling to verify the hazardous events, (2) statistical downscaling to provide station-scale future climate information, and (3) estimates of changes in frequency and magnitude of future hazardous meteorological/hydrological events in this century. To achieve these goals, in addition to synoptic weather typing, the modeling conceptualizations in meteorology and hydrology and various linear/nonlinear regression techniques were applied. Furthermore, a formal model result verification process has been built into the entire modeling exercise. The results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables predicted by the models, showed very good agreement. This paper will briefly summarize these research projects, focusing on the modeling exercise and results.

Low-frequency climate anomalies, changes in synoptic scale circulation patterns and statistics of extreme events over south-east Poland during the Last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slawinska, J. M.; Bartoszek, K.; Gabriel, C. J.

2016-12-01

Long-term predictions of changes in extreme event frequency are of utmost importance due to their high societal and economic impact. Yet, current projections are of limited skills as they rely on satellite records that are relatively short compared to the timescale of interest, and also due to the presence of a significant anthropogenic trend superimposed onto other low-frequency variabilities. Novel simulations of past climates provide unique opportunity to separate external perturbations from internal climate anomalies and to attribute the latter to systematic changes in different types of synoptic scale circulation and distributions of high-frequency events. Here we study such changes by employing the Last Millennium Ensemble of climate simulations carried out with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, focusing in particular on decadal changes in frequency of extreme precipitation events over south-east Poland. We analyze low-frequency modulations of dominant patterns of synoptic scale circulations over Europe and their dependence on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, along with their coupling with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Moreover, we examine whether some decades of persistently anomalous statistics of extreme events can be attributed to externally forced (e.g., via volcanic eruptions) perturbations of the North Atlantic climate. In the end, we discuss the possible linkages and physical mechanisms connecting volcanic eruptions, low-frequency variabilities of North Atlantic climate and changes in statistics of high impact weather, and compare briefly our results with some historical and paleontological records.

Synoptic thermodynamic and dynamic patterns associated with Quitandinha River flooding events in Petropolis, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silva, Fabricio Polifke; Justi da Silva, Maria Gertrudes Alvarez; Rotunno Filho, Otto Corrêa; Pires, Gisele Dornelles; Sampaio, Rafael João; de Araújo, Afonso Augusto Magalhães

2018-05-01

Natural disasters are the result of extreme or intense natural phenomena that cause severe impacts on society. These impacts can be mitigated through preventive measures that can be aided by better knowledge of extreme phenomena and monitoring of forecasting and alert systems. The city of Petropolis (in a mountainous region of the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) is prone to heavy rain events, often leading to River overflows, landslides, and loss of life. In that context, this work endeavored to characterize the thermodynamic and dynamic synoptic patterns that trigger heavy rainfall episodes and the corresponding flooding of Quitandinha River. More specifically, we reviewed events from the time period between January 2013 and December 2014 using reanalysis data. We expect that the overall description obtained of synoptic patterns should provide adequate qualitative aid to the decision-making processes involved in operational forecasting procedures. We noticed that flooding events were related to the presence of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), frontal systems (FS), and convective storms (CS). These systems showed a similar behavior on high-frequency wind components, notably with respect to northwest winds before precipitation and to a strong southwest wind component during rainfall events. Clustering analyses indicated that the main component for precipitation formation with regard to CS systems comes from daytime heating, with the dynamic component presenting greater efficiency for the FS configurations. The SACZ events were influenced by moisture availability along the vertical column of the atmosphere and also due to dynamic components of precipitation efficiency and daytime heating, the latter related to the continuous transport of moisture from the Amazon region and South Atlantic Ocean towards Rio de Janeiro state.

What are the most fire-dangerous atmospheric circulations in the Eastern-Mediterranean? Analysis of the synoptic wildfire climatology.

PubMed

Paschalidou, A K; Kassomenos, P A

2016-01-01

Wildfire management is closely linked to robust forecasts of changes in wildfire risk related to meteorological conditions. This link can be bridged either through fire weather indices or through statistical techniques that directly relate atmospheric patterns to wildfire activity. In the present work the COST-733 classification schemes are applied in order to link wildfires in Greece with synoptic circulation patterns. The analysis reveals that the majority of wildfire events can be explained by a small number of specific synoptic circulations, hence reflecting the synoptic climatology of wildfires. All 8 classification schemes used, prove that the most fire-dangerous conditions in Greece are characterized by a combination of high atmospheric pressure systems located N to NW of Greece, coupled with lower pressures located over the very Eastern part of the Mediterranean, an atmospheric pressure pattern closely linked to the local Etesian winds over the Aegean Sea. During these events, the atmospheric pressure has been reported to be anomalously high, while anomalously low 500hPa geopotential heights and negative total water column anomalies were also observed. Among the various classification schemes used, the 2 Principal Component Analysis-based classifications, namely the PCT and the PXE, as well as the Leader Algorithm classification LND proved to be the best options, in terms of being capable to isolate the vast amount of fire events in a small number of classes with increased frequency of occurrence. It is estimated that these 3 schemes, in combination with medium-range to seasonal climate forecasts, could be used by wildfire risk managers to provide increased wildfire prediction accuracy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Water-quality assessment of the eastern Iowa basins- nitrogen, phosphorus, suspended sediment, and organic carbon in surface water, 1996-98

USGS Publications Warehouse

Becher, Kent D.; Kalkhoff, Stephen J.; Schnoebelen, Douglas J.; Barnes, Kimberlee K.; Miller, Von E.

2001-01-01

Synoptic samples collected during low and high base flow had nitrogen, phosphorus, and organic-carbon concentrations that varied spatially and seasonally. Comparisons of water-quality data from six basic-fixed sampling sites and 19 other synoptic sites suggest that the water-quality data from basic-fixed sampling sites were representative of the entire study unit during periods of low and high base flow when most streamflow originates from ground water.

Numerical modeling and analysis of the effect of Greek complex topography on tornado genesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsangouras, I. T.; Pytharoulis, I.; Nastos, P. T.

2014-02-01

Tornadoes have been reported in Greece over the last decades in specific sub-geographical areas and have been associated with strong synoptic forcing. It is well known that meteorological conditions over Greece are affected at various scales by the significant variability of topography, the Ionian Sea at the west and the Aegean Sea at the east. However, there is still uncertainty regarding topography's importance on tornadic generation and development. The aim of this study is to investigate the role of topography in significant tornado genesis events that were triggered under strong synoptic scale forcing over Greece. Three tornado events that occurred over the last years in Thiva (Boeotia, 17 November 2007), Vrastema (Chalkidiki, 12 February 2010) and Vlychos (Lefkada, 20 September 2011) have been selected for numerical experiments. These events were associated with synoptic scale forcing, while their intensity was T4-T5 (Torro scale) and caused significant damage. The simulations were performed using the non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), initialized with ECMWF gridded analyses, with telescoping nested grids that allow the representation of atmospheric circulations ranging from the synoptic scale down to the meso scale. In the experiments the topography of the inner grid was modified by: (a) 0% (actual topography) and (b) -100% (without topography). The aim was to determine whether the occurrence of tornadoes - mainly identified by various severe weather instability indices - could be indicated by modifying topography. The main utilized instability variables concerned the Bulk Richardson number shear (BRN), the energy helicity index (EHI), the storm-relative environmental helicity (SRH) and the maximum convective available potential energy (MCAPE, for parcel with maximum theta-e). Additional a verification of model was conducted for every sensitivity experiment accompanied with analysis absolute vorticity budget. Numerical simulations revealed that the complex topography was denoted as an important factor during 17 November 2007 and 12 February 2010 events, based on EHI and BRN analyses. Topography around 20 September 2011 event was characterized as the least factor based on EHI, SRH, BRN analyses.

Numerical modeling and analysis of the effect of complex Greek topography on tornadogenesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsangouras, I. T.; Pytharoulis, I.; Nastos, P. T.

2014-07-01

Tornadoes have been reported in Greece over recent decades in specific sub-geographical areas and have been associated with strong synoptic forcing. While it has been established that meteorological conditions over Greece are affected at various scales by the significant variability of topography, the Ionian Sea to the west and the Aegean Sea to the east, there is still uncertainty regarding topography's importance on tornadic generation and development. The aim of this study is to investigate the role of topography in significant tornadogenesis events that were triggered under strong synoptic scale forcing over Greece. Three tornado events that occurred over the last years in Thebes (Boeotia, 17 November 2007), Vrastema (Chalkidiki, 12 February 2010) and Vlychos (Lefkada, 20 September 2011) were selected for numerical experiments. These events were associated with synoptic scale forcing, while their intensities were T4-T5 (on the TORRO scale), causing significant damage. The simulations were performed using the non-hydrostatic weather research and forecasting model (WRF), initialized by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) gridded analyses, with telescoping nested grids that allow for the representation of atmospheric circulations ranging from the synoptic scale down to the mesoscale. In the experiments, the topography of the inner grid was modified by: (a) 0% (actual topography) and (b) -100% (without topography), making an effort to determine whether the occurrence of tornadoes - mainly identified by various severe weather instability indices - could be indicated by modifying topography. The principal instability variables employed consisted of the bulk Richardson number (BRN) shear, the energy helicity index (EHI), the storm-relative environmental helicity (SRH), and the maximum convective available potential energy (MCAPE, for parcels with maximum θe). Additionally, a model verification was conducted for every sensitivity experiment accompanied by analysis of the absolute vorticity budget. Numerical simulations revealed that the complex topography constituted an important factor during the 17 November 2007 and 12 February 2010 events, based on EHI, SRH, BRN, and MCAPE analyses. Conversely, topography around the 20 September 2011 event was characterized as the least significant factor based on EHI, SRH, BRN, and MCAPE analyses.

Synoptic variability of extreme snowfall in the St. Elias Mountains, Yukon, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andin, Caroline; Zdanowicz, Christian; Copland, Luke

2015-04-01

Glaciers in the Wrangell and St. Elias Mountains (Alaska and Yukon) are presently experiencing some of the highest regional wastage rates worldwide. While the effect of regional temperatures on glacier melt rates in this region has been investigated, comparatively little is known about how synoptic climate variations, for example in the position and strength of the Aleutian Low, modulate snow accumulation on these glaciers. Such information is needed to accurately forecast future wastage rates, glacier-water resource availability, and contributions to sea-level rise. Starting in 2000, automated weather stations (AWS) were established in the central St-Elias Mountains (Yukon) at altitudes ranging from 1190 to 5400 m asl, to collect climatological data in support of glaciological research. These data are the longest continuous year-round observations of surface climate ever obtained from this vast glaciated region. Here we present an analysis of snowfall events in the icefields of the St-Elias Mountains based on a decade-long series of AWS observations of snow accumulation. Specifically, we investigated the synoptic patterns and air mass trajectories associated with the largest snowfall events (> 25 cm/12 hours) that occurred between 2002 and 2012. Nearly 80% of these events occurred during the cold season (October-March), and in 74 % of cases the precipitating air masses originated from the North Pacific south of 50°N. Zonal air mass advection over Alaska, or from the Bering Sea or the Arctic Ocean, was comparatively rare (20%). Somewhat counter-intuitively, dominant surface winds in the St. Elias Mountains during high snowfall events were predominantly easterly, probably due to boundary-layer frictional drag and topographic funneling effects. Composite maps of sea-level pressure and 700 mb winds reveal that intense snowfall events between 2002 and 2012 were associated with synoptic situations characterized by a split, eastwardly-shifted or longitudinally-stretched Aleutian Low (AL) having an easternmost node near the Kenai Peninsula, conditions that drove a strong southwesterly upper airstream across the Gulf of Alaska towards the coast. Situations with a single-node, westerly-shifted AL were comparatively rare. The spatial configuration of the synoptic AL pressure pattern appears to play a greater role in determining snowfall amount in the central St. Elias Mountains than do pressure anomalies within the AL. The estimated snowfall gradient from coastal Alaska to the central St. Elias Mountains during intense snowfall events averaged +2.0 ± 0.7 mm/km (SWE), while the continental-side gradient from the mountains towards the Yukon plateau averaged -3.3 ± 0.9 mm/km (SWE). The findings presented here can better constrain the climatic interpretation of long proxy records of snow accumulation variations developed from glacier cores drilled in the St. Elias Mountains or nearby regions.

Synoptic survey of septic indicators in streams and springs at Monte Sano Mountain, Madison County, Alabama, January 29-31, 1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

McPherson, Ann K.; Mooty, Will S.

1999-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey conducted a synoptic investigation of fecal bacterial pollution in headwater streams and springs on Monte Sano Mountain. A total of 18 sites were sampled over a 3 day period in late January 1998. Fifteen of the sites were located hydrologically downgradient from residential areas on top of Monte Sano Mountain. Three additional sites were selected as background sites in unpopulated areas on Huntsville Mountain, south of Monte Sano Mountain. Sampling was conducted during a period of high baseflow after a recent storm when no surface runoff was present. Any contaminants identified in the streams and springs were likely derived from ground-water discharge because overland flow was not evident. Four of the five sites in the Pottsville-Pennington unit (uppermost) with the highest concentration of residential land use had Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentrations that were more than 25 times the background level. In contrast, with the exception of one site, E. coli concentrations in the Bangor-Monteagle unit (middle) and Tuscumbia unit (lowermost) were at or near background levels. Caffeine was also detected in the Pottsville-Pennington unit at a site with one of the highest densities of E. coli. Elevated levels of nitrate and chloride were also identified at sites in the Pottsville-Pennington unit. The results of this synoptic sampling event identified elevated concentrations of fecal bacteria in the Pottsville-Pennington unit at the top of the mountain. These elevated bacterial concentrations occurred in conjunction with caffeine detection and elevated levels of nitrate and chloride. This indicates that there is a potential water-quality problem related to discharge from the shallow ground-water system. These sites are located in close proximity to residential development, indicating that the most probable source of the elevated fecal bacterial concentrations was septic tank effluent.

Juno-UVS approach observations of Jupiter's auroras

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gladstone, G. R.; Versteeg, M. H.; Greathouse, T. K.; Hue, V.; Davis, M. W.; Gérard, J.-C.; Grodent, D. C.; Bonfond, B.; Nichols, J. D.; Wilson, R. J.; Hospodarsky, G. B.; Bolton, S. J.; Levin, S. M.; Connerney, J. E. P.; Adriani, A.; Kurth, W. S.; Mauk, B. H.; Valek, P.; McComas, D. J.; Orton, G. S.; Bagenal, F.

2017-08-01

Juno ultraviolet spectrograph (UVS) observations of Jupiter's aurora obtained during approach are presented. Prior to the bow shock crossing on 24 June 2016, the Juno approach provided a rare opportunity to correlate local solar wind conditions with Jovian auroral emissions. Some of Jupiter's auroral emissions are expected to be controlled or modified by local solar wind conditions. Here we compare synoptic Juno-UVS observations of Jupiter's auroral emissions, acquired during 3-29 June 2016, with in situ solar wind observations, and related Jupiter observations from Earth. Four large auroral brightening events are evident in the synoptic data, in which the total emitted auroral power increases by a factor of 3-4 for a few hours. Only one of these brightening events correlates well with large transient increases in solar wind ram pressure. The brightening events which are not associated with the solar wind generally have a risetime of 2 h and a decay time of 5 h.

Juno-UVS approach observations of Jupiter's auroras.

PubMed

Gladstone, G R; Versteeg, M H; Greathouse, T K; Hue, V; Davis, M W; Gérard, J-C; Grodent, D C; Bonfond, B; Nichols, J D; Wilson, R J; Hospodarsky, G B; Bolton, S J; Levin, S M; Connerney, J E P; Adriani, A; Kurth, W S; Mauk, B H; Valek, P; McComas, D J; Orton, G S; Bagenal, F

2017-08-16

Juno ultraviolet spectrograph (UVS) observations of Jupiter's aurora obtained during approach are presented. Prior to the bow shock crossing on 24 June 2016, the Juno approach provided a rare opportunity to correlate local solar wind conditions with Jovian auroral emissions. Some of Jupiter's auroral emissions are expected to be controlled or modified by local solar wind conditions. Here we compare synoptic Juno-UVS observations of Jupiter's auroral emissions, acquired during 3-29 June 2016, with in situ solar wind observations, and related Jupiter observations from Earth. Four large auroral brightening events are evident in the synoptic data, in which the total emitted auroral power increases by a factor of 3-4 for a few hours. Only one of these brightening events correlates well with large transient increases in solar wind ram pressure. The brightening events which are not associated with the solar wind generally have a risetime of ~2 h and a decay time of ~5 h.

Surface features of central North America: a synoptic view from computer graphics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pike, R.J.

1991-01-01

A digital shaded-relief image of the 48 contiguous United States shows the details of large- and small-scale landforms, including several linear trends. The features faithfully reflect tectonism, continental glaciation, fluvial activity, volcanism, and other surface-shaping events and processes. The new map not only depicts topography accurately and in its true complexity, but does so in one synoptic view that provides a regional context for geologic analysis unobscured by clouds, culture, vegetation, or artistic constraints. -Author

Synoptic scale forecast skill and systematic errors in the MASS 2.0 model. [Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koch, S. E.; Skillman, W. C.; Kocin, P. J.; Wetzel, P. J.; Brill, K. F.

1985-01-01

The synoptic scale performance characteristics of MASS 2.0 are determined by comparing filtered 12-24 hr model forecasts to same-case forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's synoptic-scale Limited-area Fine Mesh model. Characteristics of the two systems are contrasted, and the analysis methodology used to determine statistical skill scores and systematic errors is described. The overall relative performance of the two models in the sample is documented, and important systematic errors uncovered are presented.

Synoptic Regulation of The 3 May 1999 Oklahoma Tornado Outbreak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, D. M.; Roebber, P. J.; Romero, R.

Despite the relatively successful long-lead-time forecasts of the storms during the 3 May 1999 tornadic outbreak in Oklahoma and Kansas, forecasters were unable to predict with confidence details concerning convective initiation and convective mode. The forecasters identified three synoptic processes they were monitoring for clues as to how the event would unfold. These elements were (a) the absence of strong surface convergence along a dryline in western Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle, (b) the presence of a cirrus shield that was hypothesized to limit surface heating, and (c) the arrival into Oklahoma of an upper-level wind-speed maximum (associated with the so- called southern PV anomaly) that was responsible for favorable synoptic-scale ascent and the cirrus shield. The Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model Version 5 (MM5) is used in forecast mode (using the operational AVN run data to provide initial and lateral boundary conditions) to explore the sen- sitivity of the outbreak to these features using simulations down to 2-km horizontal grid spacing. A 30-h control simulation is compared to the available observations and captures important qualitative characteristics of the event, including convective initi- ation east of the dryline and organization of mesoscale convective systems into long lived, long-track supercells. Additional simulations in which the initial strength of the southern PV anomaly is altered suggest that synoptic regulation of the 3 May 1999 event was imposed by the effects of the southern PV anomaly. The model results in- dicate that: (1) convective initiation in the weakly forced environment was achieved through modification of the existing cap through both surface heating and synoptic- scale ascent associated with the southern PV anomaly; (2) supercellular organization was supported regardless of the strength of the southern PV anomaly, although weak- to-moderate forcing from this feature was most conducive to the production of long lived supercells and strong forcing resulted in a trend toward linear mesoscale convec- tive systems; (3) the cirrus shield was important in limiting development of convection and reducing competition between storms.

Statistical characteristics of mudflows in the piedmont areas of Uzbekistan and the role of the synoptic processes for the formation of mudflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mamadjanova, Gavkhar; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2016-04-01

Mudflows are formed almost every year in the territory of Uzbekistan and neighbouring countries. They represent a major threat to human life and settlements and can significantly damage infrastructure. In general, in addition to elevated soil moisture conditions, severe local rainfall events (e.g., 15 mm of precipitation in 12 hours) and associated air temperature conditions are understood to be the main factors in the formation of mudflows in the piedmont areas of Uzbekistan. The main purpose of this study is to understand factors on local and synoptic to hemispheric scales, which cause mudflow variability on interannual and longer time scales. To fulfil this objective, in a first step historical data of mudflow occurrences (mainly March to August) in Uzbekistan provided by the Centre of Hydro-meteorological Service of the Republic of Uzbekistan (Uzhydromet) for more than 140 years are statistically analysed. During the investigation period a total of around 3000 mudflow events were observed with about 21 events per year on average and a maximum of 168 mudflows in 1930. To understand principle factors steering the variability of mudflow occurrences, synoptic scale circulation weather types (CWT) over Central Asia and Uzbekistan are investigated. The majority of mudflows (22%) occur during the advection of westerly airflow when moist air from Central and Southern Europe reaches Uzbekistan. This objectively classified synoptic situation can be related to one of the 15 primary synoptic circulation types over the Central Asia and Uzbekistan which were subjectively derived by Bugayev and Giorgio in 1930-40s (Bugayev et al., 1957), thus confirming the validity of this approach. By means of the CWT approach, we further analyse that on mudflow-days the frequencies of cyclonic, westerly, south-westerly and north-westerly stream flows are increased in comparison to the climatological frequency of occurrence of these circulation weather types. Details of the necessary and sufficient meteorological conditions within a CWT class are investigated. Further studies will investigate and identify key factors steering the variability in CWT frequency variability over Central Asia on longer timescales and how these are related to known major variability modes in the climate system.

Statistical Searches for Microlensing Events in Large, Non-uniformly Sampled Time-Domain Surveys: A Test Using Palomar Transient Factory Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price-Whelan, Adrian M.; Agüeros, Marcel A.; Fournier, Amanda P.; Street, Rachel; Ofek, Eran O.; Covey, Kevin R.; Levitan, David; Laher, Russ R.; Sesar, Branimir; Surace, Jason

2014-01-01

Many photometric time-domain surveys are driven by specific goals, such as searches for supernovae or transiting exoplanets, which set the cadence with which fields are re-imaged. In the case of the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF), several sub-surveys are conducted in parallel, leading to non-uniform sampling over its ~20,000 deg2 footprint. While the median 7.26 deg2 PTF field has been imaged ~40 times in the R band, ~2300 deg2 have been observed >100 times. We use PTF data to study the trade off between searching for microlensing events in a survey whose footprint is much larger than that of typical microlensing searches, but with far-from-optimal time sampling. To examine the probability that microlensing events can be recovered in these data, we test statistics used on uniformly sampled data to identify variables and transients. We find that the von Neumann ratio performs best for identifying simulated microlensing events in our data. We develop a selection method using this statistic and apply it to data from fields with >10 R-band observations, 1.1 × 109 light curves, uncovering three candidate microlensing events. We lack simultaneous, multi-color photometry to confirm these as microlensing events. However, their number is consistent with predictions for the event rate in the PTF footprint over the survey's three years of operations, as estimated from near-field microlensing models. This work can help constrain all-sky event rate predictions and tests microlensing signal recovery in large data sets, which will be useful to future time-domain surveys, such as that planned with the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope.

Synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions associated with flash flooding in watersheds of the Catskill Mountains, New York, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teale, N. G.; Quiring, S. M.

2015-12-01

Understanding flash flooding is important in unfiltered watersheds, such as portions of the New York City water supply system (NYCWSS), as water quality is degraded by turbidity associated with flooding. To further understand flash flooding in watersheds of the NYCWSS, synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions most frequently associated with flash flooding between 1987 and 2013 were examined. Flash floods were identified during this time period using USGS 15-minute discharge data at the Esopus Creek near Allaben, NY and Neversink River at Claryville, NY gauges. Overall, 25 flash floods were detected, occurring over 17 separate flash flood days. These flash flood days were compared to the days on which flash flood warnings encompassing the study area was issued by the National Weather Service. The success rate for which the flash flood warnings for Ulster County coincided with flash flood in the study watershed was 0.09, demonstrating the highly localized nature of flash flooding in the Catskill Mountain region. The synoptic-scale atmospheric patterns influencing the study area were characterized by a principal component analysis and k-means clustering of NCEP/NCAR 500 mb geopotential height reanalysis data. This procedure was executed in Spatial Synoptic Typer Tools 4.0. While 17 unique synoptic patterns were identified, only 3 types were strongly associated with flash flooding events. A strong southwesterly flow suggesting advection of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico is shown in composites of these 3 types. This multiscalar study thereby links flash flooding in the NYCWSS with synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation.Understanding flash flooding is important in unfiltered watersheds, such as portions of the New York City water supply system (NYCWSS), as water quality is degraded by turbidity associated with flooding. To further understand flash flooding in watersheds of the NYCWSS, synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions most frequently associated with flash flooding between 1987 and 2013 were examined. Flash floods were identified during this time period using USGS 15-minute discharge data at the Esopus Creek near Allaben, NY and Neversink River at Claryville, NY gauges. Overall, 25 flash floods were detected, occurring over 17 separate flash flood days. These flash flood days were compared to the days on which flash flood warnings encompassing the study area was issued by the National Weather Service. The success rate for which the flash flood warnings for Ulster County coincided with flash flood in the study watershed was 0.09, demonstrating the highly localized nature of flash flooding in the Catskill Mountain region. The synoptic-scale atmospheric patterns influencing the study area were characterized by a principal component analysis and k-means clustering of NCEP/NCAR 500 mb geopotential height reanalysis data. This procedure was executed in Spatial Synoptic Typer Tools 4.0. While 17 unique synoptic patterns were identified, only 3 types were strongly associated with flash flooding events. A strong southwesterly flow suggesting advection of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico is shown in composites of these 3 types. This multiscalar study thereby links flash flooding in the NYCWSS with synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation.

Characterization of freezing precipitation events through other meteorological variables and their recent changes over Northern Extratropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groisman, P. Y.; Yin, X.; Bulygina, O.

2017-12-01

Freezing precipitation events intertwine with agriculture, recreation, energy consumption, and seasonal transportation cycles of human activities. Using supplementary synoptic reports at 1,500 long-term stations of North America and Northern Eurasia, we created climatology of freezing precipitation near the surface and found significant changes (increases) in these occurrences in the past decade at high latitudes/elevations (Groisman et al. 2016; updated). Firstly, we document narrow boundaries of near surface temperature and humidity fields when freezing precipitation events occur; these are necessary but insufficient conditions of their occurrence. Secondly, using the upper air data at the sites collocated with in situ observations of freezing events, we quantify the typical pattern of lower troposphere temperature anomalies during freezing events: At the same locations and Julian days, the presence of freezing event at the surface is associated with significantly warmer temperatures in the lower troposphere; comparison of temperatures at nearest days before and after the freezing events with days during these events also shows statistically significant positive temperature anomalies in the lower troposphere to 500 hPa (on average, +3 to 4 °C) In the days with freezing events, vertical air temperature gradients between surface and 850 hPa become less than usual with frequent inversions, when the tropospheric air is warmer than at the surface. The above features of the lower tropospheric temperature, near-surface temperature and humidity represent a combination of weather conditions conducive for precipitation, if it happens, falling in the freezing rain form. The in situ reports of freezing events at synoptic stations allow us to estimate temporary and spatial distributions of such "special weather conditions". Thus, a posteriori high probability of freezing events under these weather conditions invokes similar probabilities of freezing rain over the ungauged terrain, where we do not have special synoptic reports but can reproduce these "special weather conditions" from less sophisticated observational networks and/or reanalyses. Reference: Groisman et al. 2016: Recent changes in the frequency of freezing precipitation in North America and Northern Eurasia. Environ Res Lett 11 045007.

Antecedent Synoptic Environments Conducive to North American Polar/Subtropical Jet Superpositions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winters, A. C.; Keyser, D.; Bosart, L. F.

2017-12-01

The atmosphere often exhibits a three-step pole-to-equator tropopause structure, with each break in the tropopause associated with a jet stream. The polar jet stream (PJ) typically resides in the break between the polar and subtropical tropopause and is positioned atop the strongly baroclinic, tropospheric-deep polar front around 50°N. The subtropical jet stream (STJ) resides in the break between the subtropical and the tropical tropopause and is situated on the poleward edge of the Hadley cell around 30°N. On occasion, the latitudinal separation between the PJ and the STJ can vanish, resulting in a vertical jet superposition. Prior case study work indicates that jet superpositions are often attended by a vigorous transverse vertical circulation that can directly impact the production of extreme weather over North America. Furthermore, this work suggests that there is considerable variability among antecedent environments conducive to the production of jet superpositions. These considerations motivate a comprehensive study to examine the synoptic-dynamic mechanisms that operate within the double-jet environment to produce North American jet superpositions. This study focuses on the identification of North American jet superposition events in the CFSR dataset during November-March 1979-2010. Superposition events will be classified into three characteristic types: "Polar Dominant" events will consist of events during which only the PJ is characterized by a substantial excursion from its climatological latitude band; "Subtropical Dominant" events will consist of events during which only the STJ is characterized by a substantial excursion from its climatological latitude band; and "Hybrid" events will consist of those events characterized by an excursion of both the PJ and STJ from their climatological latitude bands. Following their classification, frequency distributions of jet superpositions will be constructed to highlight the geographical locations most often associated with jet superpositions for each event type. PV inversion and composite analysis will also be performed on each event type in an effort to illustrate the antecedent environments and the dominant synoptic-dynamic mechanisms that favor the production of North American jet superpositions for each event type.

Relating isotopic composition of precipitation to atmospheric patterns and local moisture recycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Logan, K. E.; Brunsell, N. A.; Nippert, J. B.

2016-12-01

Local land management practices such as irrigation significantly alter surface evapotranspiration (ET), regional boundary layer development, and potentially modify precipitation likelihood and amount. How strong this local forcing is in comparison to synoptic-scale dynamics, and how much ET is recycled locally as precipitation are areas of great uncertainty and are especially important when trying to forecast the impact of local land management strategies on drought mitigation. Stable isotope analysis has long been a useful tool for tracing movement throughout the water cycle. In this study, reanalysis data and stable isotope samples of precipitation events are used to estimate the contribution of local moisture recycling to precipitation at the Konza Prairie LTER - located in the Great Plains, downwind of intensive agricultural areas. From 2001 to 2014 samples of all precipitation events over 5mm were collected and 18O and D isotopes measured. Comparison of observed precipitation totals and MERRA and ERA-interim reanalysis totals is used to diagnose periods of strong local moisture contribution (especially from irrigation) to precipitation. Large discrepancies in precipitation between observation and reanalysis, particularly MERRA, tend to follow dry periods during the growing season, presumably because while ERA-Interim adjusts soil moisture using observed surface temperature and humidity, MERRA includes no such local soil moisture adjustment and therefore lacks potential precipitation feedbacks induced by irrigation. The δ18O and δD signature of local irrigation recycling is evaluated using these incongruous observations. Self-organizing maps (SOM) are then used to identify a comprehensive range of synoptic conditions that result in precipitation at Konza LTER. Comparison of isotopic signature and SOM classification of rainfall events allows for identification of the primary moisture source and estimation of the contribution of locally recycled moisture. The climatology of precipitation source and changes in the influence of local moisture over the course of 14 years of observation are explored.

Characteristics of extreme dust events observed over two urban areas in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bidokhti, Abbas-Ali A.; Gharaylou, Maryam; Pegahfar, Nafiseh; Sabetghadam, Samaneh; Rezazadeh, Maryam

2016-03-01

Determination of dust loading in the atmosphere is important not only from the public health point of view, but also for regional climate changes. The present study focuses on the characteristics of two major dust events for two urban areas in Iran, Kermanshah and Tehran, over the period of 4 years from 2006 to 2009. To detect extreme dust outbreaks, various datasets including synoptic data, dust concentration, reanalysis data and numerical results of WRF and HYSPLIT models were used. The weather maps demonstrate that for these events dusts are mainly generated when wind velocity is high and humidity is low in the lower troposphere and the region is under the influence of a thermal low. The event lasts until the atmospheric stability prevails and the surface wind speed weakens. The thermal low nature of the synoptic conditions of these major events is also responsible for deep boundary layer development with its thermals affecting the vertical dust flux over the region. Trajectory studies show that the dust events originated from deserts in Iraq and Syria and transported towards Iran. The main distinction between the two types of mobilizations seems to affect the dust concentrations in the Tehran urban area.

Tomographic Sounding of Protoplanetary and Transitional Disks: Using Inner Disk Variability at Near to Mid-IR Wavelengths to Probe Conditions in the Outer Disk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grady, C. A.; Sitko, M.L.

2013-01-01

Spitzer synoptic monitoring of young stellar associations has demonstrated that variability among young stars and their disks is ubiquitous. The Spitzer studies have been limited by target visibility windows and cover only a short temporal baseline in years. A complementary approach is to focus on stars chosen for high-value observations (e.g. high-contrast imaging, interferometry, or access to wavelengths which are difficult to achieve from the ground) where the synoptic data can augment the imagery or interferometry as well as probing disk structure. In this talk, we discuss how synoptic data for two protoplanetary disks, MWC 480 and HD 163296, constrain the dust disk scale height, account for variable disk illumination, and can be used to locate emission features, such as the IR bands commonly associated with PAHs in the disk, as part of our SOFIA cycle 1 study. Similar variability is now known for several pre-transitional disks, where synoptic data can be used to identify inner disks which are not coplanar with the outer disk, and which may be relicts of giant planet-giant planet scattering events. Despite the logistical difficulties in arranging supporting, coordinated observations in tandem with high-value observations, such data have allowed us to place imagery in context, constrained structures in inner disks not accessible to direct imagery, and may be a tool for identifying systems where planet scattering events have occurred.

Towards an Automated Classification of Transient Events in Synoptic Sky Surveys

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Djorgovski, S. G.; Donalek, C.; Mahabal, A. A.; Moghaddam, B.; Turmon, M.; Graham, M. J.; Drake, A. J.; Sharma, N.; Chen, Y.

2011-01-01

We describe the development of a system for an automated, iterative, real-time classification of transient events discovered in synoptic sky surveys. The system under development incorporates a number of Machine Learning techniques, mostly using Bayesian approaches, due to the sparse nature, heterogeneity, and variable incompleteness of the available data. The classifications are improved iteratively as the new measurements are obtained. One novel featrue is the development of an automated follow-up recommendation engine, that suggest those measruements that would be the most advantageous in terms of resolving classification ambiguities and/or characterization of the astrophysically most interesting objects, given a set of available follow-up assets and their cost funcations. This illustrates the symbiotic relationship of astronomy and applied computer science through the emerging disciplne of AstroInformatics.

Synoptic Sky Surveys: Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djorgovski, Stanislav G.; CRTS Team

2014-01-01

A new generation of synoptic sky surveys is now opening the time domain for a systematic exploration, presenting both great new scientific opportunities as well as the challenges. These surveys are touching essentially all subfields of astronomy, producing large statistical samples of the known types of objects and events (e.g., SNe, AGN, variable stars of many kinds), and have already uncovered previously unknown subtypes of these (e.g., rare or peculiar types of SNe). They are generating new science now, and paving the way for even larger surveys to come, e.g., the LSST. Our ability to fully exploit such forthcoming facilities depends critically on the science, methodology, and experience that are being accumulated now. Among the outstanding challenges the foremost is our ability to conduct an effective follow-up of the interesting events discovered by the surveys in any wavelength regime. The follow-up resources, especially spectroscopy, are already be severely limited, and this problem will grow by orders of magnitude. This requires an intelligent down-selection of the most astrophysically interesting events to follow. The first step in that process is an automated, real-time, iterative classification of transient events, that incorporates heterogeneous data from the surveys themselves, archival information (spatial, temporal, and multiwavelength), and the incoming follow-up observations. The second step is an optimal automated event prioritization and allocation of the available follow-up resources that also change in time. Both of these challenges are highly non-trivial, and require a strong cyber-infrastructure based on the Virtual Observatory data grid, and the various astroinformatics efforts now under way. This is inherently an astronomy of telescope-computational systems, that increasingly depends on novel machine learning and artificial intelligence tools. Another arena with a strong potential for discovery is an archival, non-time-critical exploration of the time domain, with the time dimension adding the complexity to an already challenging problem of data mining of highly-dimensional data parameter spaces.

Short-term production and synoptic influences on atmospheric 7Be concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Usoskin, Ilya G.; Field, Christy V.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; LeppäNen, Ari-Pekka; Aldahan, Ala; Kovaltsov, Gennady A.; Possnert, GöRan; Ungar, R. Kurt

2009-03-01

Variations of the cosmogenic radionuclide 7Be in the global atmosphere are driven by cooperation of processes of its production, air transports, and removal. We use a combination of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE and the OuluCRAC:7Be production model to simulate the variations in the 7Be concentration in the atmosphere for the period from 1 January to 28 February 2005. This period features significant synoptic variability at multiple monitoring stations around the globe and spans an extreme solar energetic particle (SEP) event that occurred on 20 January. Using nudging from observed horizontal winds, the model correctly reproduces the overall level of the measured 7Be concentration near ground and a great deal of the synoptic variability at timescales of 4 days and longer. This verifies the combined model of production and transport of the 7Be radionuclide in the atmosphere. The impact of an extreme SEP event of January 2005 is seen dramatically in polar stratospheric 7Be concentration but is small near the surface (about 2%) and indistinguishable given the amount of intrinsic variability and the uncertainties of the surface observations.

Synoptic analysis of heat-related mortality in Sydney, Australia, 1993-2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaneckova, Pavla; Hart, Melissa A.; Beggs, Paul J.; de Dear, Richard J.

2008-07-01

Exposure to extremely hot weather has been associated with increased mortality. Temporal Synoptic Index is an effective method used to analyze the relationship between mortality and combined weather factors. The aim of this study is to examine the short-term effect of ambient heat on mortality in Sydney during the warmest 6-month period (October-March) for the years 1993-2001. Eleven synoptic categories were related to daily mortality rates in Sydney. Two distinctive warm categories were associated with significantly higher mortality rates. Hot, dry and relatively rare Synoptic Category 7 (SC7) days showed the highest daily mortality rates, followed by warm and humid SC3 days, which occurred more frequently. Increased mortality was more pronounced among the elderly population, and gender-stratified analysis showed women to be more vulnerable. Mortality on the day of the weather event was higher than 1 or 2 days after the adverse synoptic situation. Ozone and particulate matter smaller than 10 µm were found at high concentrations in SC3 and SC7, respectively, but their impact on mortality was not clear. The population of Sydney was found to be vulnerable to high temperatures, with a lower susceptibility than those of some cities in the USA and Europe.

Snowfall in the Northwest Iberian Peninsula: Synoptic Circulation Patterns and Their Influence on Snow Day Trends

PubMed Central

Merino, Andrés; Fernández, Sergio; Hermida, Lucía; López, Laura; Sánchez, José Luis; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Gascón, Estíbaliz

2014-01-01

In recent decades, a decrease in snowfall attributed to the effects of global warming (among other causes) has become evident. However, it is reasonable to investigate meteorological causes for such decrease, by analyzing changes in synoptic scale patterns. On the Iberian Peninsula, the Castilla y León region in the northwest consists of a central plateau surrounded by mountain ranges. This creates snowfalls that are considered both an important water resource and a transportation risk. In this work, we develop a classification of synoptic situations that produced important snowfalls at observation stations in the major cities of Castilla y León from 1960 to 2011. We used principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster techniques to define four synoptic patterns conducive to snowfall in the region. Once we confirmed homogeneity of the series and serial correlation of the snowfallday records at the stations from 1960 to 2011, we carried out a Mann-Kendall test. The results show a negative trend at most stations, so there are a decreased number of snowfall days. Finally, variations in these meteorological variables were related to changes in the frequencies of snow events belonging to each synoptic pattern favorable for snowfall production at the observatory locations. PMID:25152912

Synoptic Scale Influences on Increasing Summertime Extreme Precipitation Events in the Northeastern United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collow, Allison; Bosilovich, Mike; Koster, Randal

2017-01-01

Over the past 15 years, the northeastern United States has seen a statistically significant increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events that is larger and more widespread than anywhere else in the country. This increase in events is more likely to be associated with frontal and low-pressure systems, rather than being caused by more tropical cyclones impacting the region.

Hydrochemical responses among nested catchments of the Sleepers River Research Watershed.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sebestyen, S. D.; Boyer, E. W.; Shanley, J. B.; Kendall, C.

2005-12-01

We are probing chemical and isotopic tracers of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrate over both space and time to determine how stream nutrient dynamics change with increasing basin size and differ with flow conditions. At the Sleepers River Research Watershed in northeastern Vermont, USA, 20 to 30 nested sub-basins that ranged in size from 3 to 11,000 ha were sampled repeatedly under baseflow conditions. These synoptic surveys showed a pattern of heterogeneity in headwaters that converged to a consistent response at larger basin sizes and is consistent with findings of other studies. In addition to characterizing spatial patterns under baseflow, we sampled rainfall and snowmelt events over a gradient of basin sizes to investigate scaling responses under different flow conditions. During high flow events, DOC and nitrate flushing responses varied among different basins where high-frequency event samples were collected. While the DOC and nitrate concentration patterns were similar at four headwater basins, the concentration responses of larger basins were markedly different in that the concentration patterns, flushing duration, and maximum concentrations were attenuated from headwaters to the largest basin. We are using these data to explore how flow paths and solute mixing aggregate. Overall, these results highlight the complexities of understanding spatial scaling issues in catchments and underscore the need to consider event responses of hydrology and chemistry among catchments.

Plausible Effect of Weather on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation with a Coupled General Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zedong; Wan, Xiuquan

2018-04-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a vital component of the global ocean circulation and the heat engine of the climate system. Through the use of a coupled general circulation model, this study examines the role of synoptic systems on the AMOC and presents evidence that internally generated high-frequency, synoptic-scale weather variability in the atmosphere could play a significant role in maintaining the overall strength and variability of the AMOC, thereby affecting climate variability and change. Results of a novel coupling technique show that the strength and variability of the AMOC are greatly reduced once the synoptic weather variability is suppressed in the coupled model. The strength and variability of the AMOC are closely linked to deep convection events at high latitudes, which could be strongly affected by the weather variability. Our results imply that synoptic weather systems are important in driving the AMOC and its variability. Thus, interactions between atmospheric weather variability and AMOC may be an important feedback mechanism of the global climate system and need to be taken into consideration in future climate change studies.

Large Scale Water Vapor Sources Relative to the October 2000 Piedmont Flood

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turato, Barbara; Reale, Oreste; Siccardi, Franco

2003-01-01

Very intense mesoscale or synoptic-scale rainfall events can occasionally be observed in the Mediterranean region without any deep cyclone developing over the areas affected by precipitation. In these perplexing cases the synoptic situation can superficially look similar to cases in which very little precipitation occurs. These situations could possibly baffle the operational weather forecasters. In this article, the major precipitation event that affected Piedmont (Italy) between 13 and 16 October 2000 is investigated. This is one of the cases in which no intense cyclone was observed within the Mediterranean region at any time, only a moderate system was present, and yet exceptional rainfall and flooding occurred. The emphasis of this study is on the moisture origin and transport. Moisture and energy balances are computed on different space- and time-scales, revealing that precipitation exceeds evaporation over an area inclusive of Piedmont and the northwestern Mediterranean region, on a time-scale encompassing the event and about two weeks preceding it. This is suggestive of an important moisture contribution originating from outside the region. A synoptic and dynamic analysis is then performed to outline the potential mechanisms that could have contributed to the large-scale moisture transport. The central part of the work uses a quasi-isentropic water-vapor back trajectory technique. The moisture sources obtained by this technique are compared with the results of the balances and with the synoptic situation, to unveil possible dynamic mechanisms and physical processes involved. It is found that moisture sources on a variety of atmospheric scales contribute to this event. First, an important contribution is caused by the extratropical remnants of former tropical storm Leslie. The large-scale environment related to this system allows a significant amount of moisture to be carried towards Europe. This happens on a time- scale of about 5-15 days preceding the Piedmont event. Second, water-vapor intrusions from the African Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and evaporation from the eastern Atlantic contribute on the 2-5 day time-scale. The large-scale moist dynamics appears therefore to be one important factor enabling a moderate Mediterranean cyclone to produce heavy precipitation. Finally, local evaporation from the Mediterranean, water-vapor recycling, and orographically-induced low-level convergence enhance and concentrate the moisture over the area where heavy precipitation occurs. This happens on a 12-72 hour time-scale.

Juno‐UVS approach observations of Jupiter's auroras

PubMed Central

Versteeg, M. H.; Greathouse, T. K.; Hue, V.; Davis, M. W.; Gérard, J.‐C.; Grodent, D. C.; Bonfond, B.; Nichols, J. D.; Wilson, R. J.; Hospodarsky, G. B.; Bolton, S. J.; Levin, S. M.; Connerney, J. E. P.; Adriani, A.; Kurth, W. S.; Mauk, B. H.; Valek, P.; McComas, D. J.; Orton, G. S.; Bagenal, F.

2017-01-01

Abstract Juno ultraviolet spectrograph (UVS) observations of Jupiter's aurora obtained during approach are presented. Prior to the bow shock crossing on 24 June 2016, the Juno approach provided a rare opportunity to correlate local solar wind conditions with Jovian auroral emissions. Some of Jupiter's auroral emissions are expected to be controlled or modified by local solar wind conditions. Here we compare synoptic Juno‐UVS observations of Jupiter's auroral emissions, acquired during 3–29 June 2016, with in situ solar wind observations, and related Jupiter observations from Earth. Four large auroral brightening events are evident in the synoptic data, in which the total emitted auroral power increases by a factor of 3–4 for a few hours. Only one of these brightening events correlates well with large transient increases in solar wind ram pressure. The brightening events which are not associated with the solar wind generally have a risetime of ~2 h and a decay time of ~5 h. PMID:28989207

Improving synoptic and intraseasonal variability in CFSv2 via stochastic representation of organized convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goswami, B. B.; Khouider, B.; Phani, R.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Majda, A.

2017-01-01

To better represent organized convection in the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), a stochastic multicloud model (SMCM) parameterization is adopted and a 15 year climate run is made. The last 10 years of simulations are analyzed here. While retaining an equally good mean state (if not better) as the parent model, the CFS-SMCM simulation shows significant improvement in the synoptic and intraseasonal variability. The CFS-SMCM provides a better account of convectively coupled equatorial waves and the Madden-Julian oscillation. The CFS-SMCM exhibits improvements in northward and eastward propagation of intraseasonal oscillation of convection including the MJO propagation beyond the maritime continent barrier, which is the Achilles Heel for coarse-resolution global climate models (GCMs). The distribution of precipitation events is better simulated in CFSsmcm and spreads naturally toward high-precipitation events. Deterministic GCMs tend to simulate a narrow distribution with too much drizzling precipitation and too little high-precipitation events.

North Atlantic weather regimes: A synoptic study of phase space. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orrhede, Anna Karin

1990-01-01

In the phase space of weather, low frequency variability (LFV) of the atmosphere can be captured in a large scale subspace, where a trajectory connects consecutive large scale weather maps, thus revealing flow changes and recurrences. Using this approach, Vautard applied the trajectory speed minimization method (Vautard and Legras) to atmospheric data. From 37 winters of 700 mb geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic and the adjacent land masses, four persistent and recurrent weather patterns, interpreted as weather regimes, were discernable: a blocking regime, a zonal regime, a Greenland anticyclone regime, and an Atlantic regime. These regimes are studied further in terms of maintenance and transitions. A regime survey unveils preferences regarding event durations and precursors for the onset or break of an event. The transition frequencies between regimes vary, and together with the transition times, suggest the existence of easier transition routes. These matters are more systematically studied using complete synoptic map sequences from a number of events.

An atlas of solar events: 1996 2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Artzner, G.; Auchère, F.; Delaboudinière, J. P.; Bougnet, M.

2006-01-01

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are observed in the plane of the sky in coronographic images. As the solar surface is masked by an occulting disk it is not clear whether halo CMEs are directed towards or away from the Earth. Observations of the solar corona on the solar disk by the extreme ultraviolet imaging telescope (EIT) on board the Solar Heliospheric Observatory SoHO can help to resolve this. Quasi-continuous observations of the solar corona were obtained from April 1997 up to the current date at a 12 min cadence in the coronal line of FeXII, as part of a “CME watch program”. At a slower 6 h cadence an additional synoptic program investigates the chromosphere and the corona at four different wavelengths. Large coronal solar events appear when viewing animations of the CME watch program. Fainter events do appear when viewing running difference animations of the CME watch program. When looking for additional spectral information from raw running differences of the synoptic program it is difficult to disentangle intrinsic solar events from the parasitic effect of the solar rotation. We constructed at www.ias.u-psud.fr/medoc/EIT/movies/ an atlas of more than 40,000 difference images from the synoptic programme, corrected for an average solar rotation, as well as more than 200,000 instantaneous and difference images from the CME watch program. We present case studies of specific events in order to investigate the source of darkenings or dimmings in difference images, due to the removal of emitting material, the presence of obscuring material or large changes in temperature. As the beneficial effect of correcting for the solar rotation vanishes at the solar limb, we do not investigate the case of prominence Doppler dimming. As a by-product of the atlas of solar events we obtain a number of quiet time sequences well suited to precisely measure the differential solar rotation by the apparent displacement of tracers.

Mesoscale and Synoptic Summertime Circulations and Their Impact on Visibility in the Arabian Gulf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eleuterio, D. P.; Walker, A. L.

2005-12-01

Although frequently characterized as a region of relatively persistent northwesterly winds, often referred to as the 40-day shamal, several researchers have recognized significant temporal and spatial variability in the summer low level winds in the Arabian Gulf. In addition to the synoptically driven gradient between the subtropical high to the north and the monsoon trough across the Gulf of Oman and Northern Arabian Sea, there are complex interactions between the Saudi Arabian and Pakistani heat lows, land-sea breeze circulations, and coastal terrain influence due to the proximity of the Zagros Mountains. These interactions frequently result in several distinct wind regimes within the Arabian Gulf, to include weak thermally and dynamically forced southerlies in the southern Gulf, a diurnally varying region of convergence/ divergence across the central Gulf, and northwesterly shamal type flow in the northern Gulf. The relative orientation and strength of these wind regimes and the strength of the subsidence inversion at the top of the marine boundary layer greatly impact the aerosol loading over water and resulting visibility due to wind-blown sand, dust, and smoke. Several case studies are examined to explore the interaction between mesoscale and synoptic forcing and the resulting spatial and temporal variability in visibility and aerosol optical depth. Conditions range from two to three day periods of rapid and persistent regional clearing with freshening northwesterly winds, to persistent periods of moderate to poor visibility in marine haze under light winds, to large scale events that create a distinct wind and dust front, severely reducing visibility through much of Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, and extending well into the Arabian Gulf. These strong, widespread events may be correlated with synoptically forced conditions farther north. Alternatively, smaller scale regional plumes of mobilized dust are often created by mesoscale events which, in conjunction with oil smoke and industrial pollution, can rapidly reduce visibility in localized regions for periods of 1-2 days and are relatively difficult to forecast because of their mesoscale nature.

The Relationship Between Anomalous Presummer Extreme Rainfall Over South China and Synoptic Disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ling; Luo, Yali; Zhang, Da-Lin

2018-04-01

A spectral analysis of daily rainfall data has been performed to investigate extreme rainfall events in south China during the presummer rainy seasons between 1998 and 2015 (excluding 1999, 2006, 2011, and 2014). The results reveal a dominant frequency mode at the synoptic scale with pronounced positive rainfall anomalies. By analyzing the synoptic-scale bandpass-filtered anomalous circulations, 24 extreme rainfall episodes (defined as those with a daily rainfall amount in the top 5%) are categorized into "cyclone" (15) and "trough" (8) types, with the remaining events as an "anticyclone" type, according to the primary anomalous weather system contributing to each extreme rainfall episode. The 15 cyclone-type episodes are further separated into (11) lower- and (4) upper-tropospheric migratory anomalies. An analysis of their anomalous fields shows that both types could be traced back to the generation of cyclonic anomalies downstream of the Tibetan Plateau, except for two episodes of lower-tropospheric migratory anomalies originating over the South China Sea. However, a lower-tropospheric cyclonic anomaly appears during all phases in the former type, but only in the wettest phase in the latter type, with its peak disturbance occurring immediately beneath an upper-level warm anomaly. The production of extreme rainfall in the trough-type episodes is closely related to a deep trough anomaly extending from an intense cyclonic anomaly over north China, which in turn could be traced back to a midlatitude Rossby wave train passing by the Tibetan Plateau. The results have important implications for understanding the origin, structure, and evolution of synoptic disturbances associated with the presummer extreme rainfall in south China.

Macroinvertebrate communities evaluated prior to and following a channel restoration project in Silver Creek, Blaine County, Idaho, 2001-16

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacCoy, Dorene E.; Short, Terry M.

2017-11-22

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Blaine County and The Nature Conservancy, evaluated the status of macroinvertebrate communities prior to and following a channel restoration project in Silver Creek, Blaine County, Idaho. The objective of the evaluation was to determine whether 2014 remediation efforts to restore natural channel conditions in an impounded area of Silver Creek caused declines in local macroinvertebrate communities. Starting in 2001 and ending in 2016, macroinvertebrates were sampled every 3 years at two long-term trend sites and sampled seasonally (spring, summer, and autumn) in 2013, 2015, and 2016 at seven synoptic sites. Trend-site communities were collected from natural stream-bottom substrates to represent locally established macroinvertebrate assemblages. Synoptic site communities were sampled using artificial (multi-plate) substrates to represent recently colonized (4–6 weeks) assemblages. Statistical summaries of spatial and temporal patterns in macroinvertebrate taxonomic composition at both trend and synoptic sites were completed.The potential effect of the restoration project on resident macroinvertebrate populations was determined by comparing the following community assemblage metrics:Total taxonomic richness (taxa richness);Total macroinvertebrate abundance (total abundance);Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera (EPT) richness;EPT abundance;Simpson’s diversity; andSimpson’s evenness for periods prior to and following restoration.A significant decrease in one or more metric values in the period following stream channel restoration was the basis for determining impairment to the macroinvertebrate communities in Silver Creek.Comparison of pre-restoration (2001–13) and post‑restoration (2016) macroinvertebrate community composition at trend sites determined that no significant decreases occurred in any metric parameter for communities sampled in 2016. Taxa and EPT richness of colonized assemblages at synoptic sites increased significantly from pre-restoration in 2013 to post-restoration in 2015 and 2016. Similarly, total and EPT abundances at synoptic sites showed non-significant increases from 2013 to 2015 and 2016. Significant seasonal differences in macroinvertebrate assemblages were apparent at synoptic site locations and likely reflected typical life-history patterns of increased insect emergence and development in the late spring and early summer months. Taxa and EPT richness were each significantly higher in spring and summer than in autumn, and total abundances were significantly higher in spring than in summer and autumn. No significant differences in community diversity or evenness of colonized communities were noted at synoptic site locations between pre- and post-restoration years or among seasons. Select community-metric results from the trend- and synoptic‑site sampling indicated that the Silver Creek restoration effort in 2014 did not result in a significant decline in resident macroinvertebrate communities.

Computing entropy change in synoptic-scale system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Y. P.; Hu, Y. Y.; Cao, H. X.; Fu, C. F.; Feng, G. L.

2018-03-01

Thermodynamic entropy is of great importance in the atmospheric physics and chemistry process, because it is a non-conserved state function which making a system's tendency towards spontaneous change. But how the entropy forces a synoptic-scale system is still not well known. In this paper, we analyzed the entropy change in atmosphere system, by calculating several examples of extra tropical cyclones over the Yellow River and its adjacent area in summer. The results show that a strong negative entropy flux appears over the north of a stationary front and the thresholds Fe S ≤ - 280 and ∂s / ∂t ≤ - 50 are satisfied. At the same time, the change of total entropy is smaller than zero. Therefore the cyclone developed quickly and daily precipitation reached 371 mm, which is heaviest rain over the Yellows River area in summer. We suggest the dynamical entropy should be developed to improve the forecasting technique of heavy rainfall event in synoptic-scale.

Playa Soil Moisture and Evaporation Dynamics During the MATERHORN Field Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hang, Chaoxun; Nadeau, Daniel F.; Jensen, Derek D.; Hoch, Sebastian W.; Pardyjak, Eric R.

2016-06-01

We present an analysis of field data collected over a desert playa in western Utah, USA in May 2013, the most synoptically active month of the year, as part of the Mountain Terrain Atmospheric Modeling and Observations (MATERHORN) program. The results show that decreasing surface albedo, decreasing Bowen ratio and increasing net radiation with increasing soil moisture sustained a powerful positive feedback mechanism promoting large evaporation rates immediately following rain events. Additionally, it was found that, while nocturnal evaporation was negligible during dry periods, it was quite significant (up to 30 % of the daily cumulative flux) during nights following rain events. Our results further show that the highest spatial variability in surface soil moisture is found under dry conditions. Finally, we report strong spatial heterogeneities in evaporation rates following a rain event. The cumulative evaporation for the different sampling sites over a five-day period varied from ≈ 0.1 to ≈ 6.6 mm. Overall, this study allows us to better understand the mechanisms underlying soil moisture dynamics of desert playas as well as evaporation following occasional rain events.

Fecal-indicator bacteria concentrations in the Illinois River between Hennepin and Peoria, Illinois: 2007-08

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dupre, David H.; Hortness, Jon E.; Terrio, Paul J.; Sharpe, Jennifer B.

2012-01-01

The Illinois Environmental Protection Agency has designated portions of the Illinois River in Peoria, Woodford, and Tazewell Counties, Illinois, as impaired owing to the presence of fecal coliform bacteria. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Tri-County Regional Planning Commission, examined the water quality in the Illinois River and major tributaries within a 47-mile reach between Peoria and Hennepin, Ill., during water year 2008 (October 2007–September 2008). Investigations included synoptic (snapshot) sampling at multiple locations in a 1-day period: once in October 2007 during lower streamflow conditions, and again in June 2008 during higher streamflow conditions. Five locations in the study area were monitored for the entire year at monthly or more frequent intervals. Two indicator bacteria were analyzed in each water sample: fecal coliform and Escherichia coli (E. coli). Streamflow information from previously established monitoring locations in the study area was used in the analysis. Correlation analyses were used to characterize the relation between the two fecal-indicator bacteria and the relation of either indicator to streamflow. Concentrations of the two measured fecal-indicator bacteria correlated well for all samples analyzed (r = 0.94, p E. coli: rho = -0.43, p = 0.0157). The correlation between fecal indicators and streamflow in tributaries or in the Illinois River at Hennepin was found to be statistically significant, yet moderate in strength with coefficient values ranging from r = 0.4 to 0.6. Indirect observations from the June 2008 higher flow synoptic event may indicate continued effects from combined storm and sanitary sewers in the vicinity of the Illinois River near Peoria, Ill., contributing to observed single-sample exceedance of the State criterion for fecal coliform.

The synoptic setting and possible energy sources for mesoscale wave disturbances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Uccellini, Louis W.; Koch, Steven E.

1987-01-01

Published data on 13 cases of mesoscale wave disturbances and their environment were examined to isolate common features for these cases and to determine possible energy sources for the waves. These events are characterized by either a singular wave of depression or wave packets with periods of 1-4 h, horizontal wavelengths of 50-500 km, and surface-pressure perturbation amplitudes of 0.2-7.0 mb. These wave events are shown to be associated with a distinct synoptic pattern (including the existence of a strong inversion in the lower troposphere and the propagation of a jet streak toward a ridge axis in the upper troposphere) while displaying little correlation with the presence of convective storm cells. The observed development of the waves is consistent with the hypothesis that the energy source needed to initiate and sustain the wave disturbances may be related to a geostrophic adjustment process associated with upper-tropospheric jet streaks.

Local and synoptic controls on rapid supraglacial lake drainage in West Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, Andrew; Banwell, Alison; Arnold, Neil; Willis, Ian

2016-04-01

Many supraglacial lakes within the ablation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) are known to drain rapidly (in <1 day) in the mid- to late melt season, delivering large meltwater pulses to the subglacial drainage system, thus affecting basal water pressures and ice-sheet dynamics. Although it is now generally recognised that rapid lake drainage is caused by hydrofracture, the precise controls on hydrofracture initiation remain poorly understood: they may be linked to a local critical water-volume threshold, or they may be associated with synoptic-scale factors, such as ice thickness, driving stresses, ice velocities and strain rates. A combination of the local water-volume threshold and one or more synoptic-scale factors may explain the overall patterns of rapid lake drainage, but this requires verification using targeted field- and remotely-based studies that cover large areas of the GrIS and span long timescales. Here, we investigate a range of potential controls on rapid supraglacial lake drainage in the land-terminating Paakitsoq region of the ice sheet, northeast of Jakobshavn Isbræ, for the 2014 melt season. We have analysed daily 250-m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery in order to calculate lake areas, depths and volumes, and have developed an automatic lake-tracking algorithm to determine the dates on which all rapid lake drainage events occur. For each rapidly draining lake, the water volumes immediately prior to drainage are compared with other local factors, notably lake-filling rate and ice thickness, and with a variety of synoptic-scale features, such as slope angles, driving stresses, surface velocities, surface strain rates and the incidence of nearby lake-drainage events. We present the outcomes of our statistical analysis to elicit the statistically significant controls on hydrofracture beneath supraglacial lakes.

Synoptic forcing of wind relaxations at Pt. Conception, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fewings, Melanie R.; Washburn, Libe; Dorman, Clive E.; Gotschalk, Christopher; Lombardo, Kelly

2016-08-01

Over the California Current upwelling system in summer, the prevailing upwelling-favorable winds episodically weaken (relax) or reverse direction for a few days. Near Pt. Conception, California, the wind usually does not reverse, but wind relaxation allows poleward oceanic coastal flow with ecological consequences. To determine the offshore extent and synoptic forcing of these wind relaxations, we formed composite averages of wind stress from the QuikSCAT satellite and atmospheric pressure from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) using 67 wind relaxations during summer 2000-2009. Wind relaxations at Pt. Conception are the third stage of an event sequence that repeatedly affects the west coast of North America in summer. First, 5-7 days before the wind weakens near Pt. Conception, the wind weakens or reverses off Oregon and northern California. Second, the upwelling-favorable wind intensifies along central California. Third, the wind relaxes at Pt. Conception, and the area of weakened winds extends poleward to northern California over 3-5 days. The NARR underestimates the wind stress within ˜200 km of coastal capes by a factor of 2. Wind relaxations at Pt. Conception are caused by offshore extension of the desert heat low. This synoptic forcing is related to event cycles that cause wind reversal as in Halliwell and Allen (1987) and Mass and Bond (1996), but includes weaker events. The wind relaxations extend ˜600 km offshore, similarly to the California-scale hydraulic expansion fan shaping the prevailing winds, and ˜1000 km alongshore, limited by an opposing pressure gradient force at Cape Mendocino.

Quantification of mine-drainage inflows to Little Cottonwood Creek, Utah, using a tracer-injection and synoptic-sampling study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kimball, B.; Runkel, R.; Gerner, L.

2001-01-01

Historic mining in Little Cottonwood Canyon in Utah has left behind many mine drainage tunnels that discharge water to Little Cottonwood Creek. To quantify the major sources of mine drainage to the stream, synoptic sampling was conducted during a tracer injection under low flow conditions (September 1998). There were distinct increases in discharge downstream from mine drainage and major tributary inflows that represented the total surface and subsurface contributions. The chemistry of stream water determined from synoptic sampling was controlled by the weathering of carbonate rocks and mine drainage inflows. Buffering by carbonate rocks maintained a high pH throughout the study reach. Most of the metal loading was from four surface-water inflows and three subsurface inflows. The main subsurface inflow was from a mine pool in the Wasatch Tunnel. Natural attenuation of all the metals resulted in the formation of colloidal solids, sorption of some metals, and accumulation onto the streambed. The deposition on the streambed could contribute to chronic toxicity for aquatic organisms. Information from the study will help to make decisions about environmental restoration.

On the nature of rainfall in dry climate: Space-time patterns of convective rain cells over the Dead Sea region and their relations with synoptic state and flash flood generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belachsen, Idit; Marra, Francesco; Peleg, Nadav; Morin, Efrat

2017-04-01

Space-time patterns of rainfall are important climatic characteristics that influence runoff generation and flash flood magnitude. Their derivation requires high-resolution measurements to adequately represent the rainfall distribution, and is best provided by remote sensing tools. This need is further emphasized in dry climate regions, where rainfall is scarce and, often, local and highly variable. Our research is focused on understanding the nature of rainfall events in the dry Dead Sea region (Eastern Mediterranean) by identifying and characterizing the spatial structure and the dynamics of convective storm cores (known as rain cells). To do so, we take advantage of 25 years of corrected and gauge-adjusted weather radar data. A statistical analysis of convective rain-cells spatial and temporal characteristics was performed with respect to synoptic pattern, geographical location, and flash flood generation. Rain cells were extracted from radar data using a cell segmentation method and a tracking algorithm and were divided into rain events. A total of 10,500 rain cells, 2650 cell tracks and 424 rain events were elicited. Rain cell properties, such as mean areal and maximal rain intensity, area, life span, direction and speed, were derived. Rain events were clustered, according to several ERA-Interim atmospheric parameters, and associated with three main synoptic patterns: Cyprus Low, Low to the East of the study region and Active Red Sea Trough. The first two originate from the Mediterranean Sea, while the third is an extension of the African monsoon. On average, the convective rain cells in the region are 90 km2 in size, moving from West to East in 13 ms-1 and living 18 minutes. Several significant differences between rain cells of the various synoptic types were observed. In particular, Active Red Sea Trough rain cells are characterized by higher rain intensities and lower speeds, suggesting a higher flooding potential for small catchments. The north-south negative gradient of mean annual rainfall in the study region was found to be negatively correlated with rain cells intensity and positively correlated with rain cells area. Additional analysis was done for convective rain cells over two nearby catchments located in the central part of the study region, by ascribing some of the rain events to observed flash-flood events. It was found that rain events associated with flash-floods have higher maximal rain cell intensity and lower minimal cell speed than rain events that did not lead to a flash-flood in the watersheds. This information contributes to our understanding of rain patterns over the dry area of the Dead Sea and their connection to flash-floods. The statistical distributions of rain cells properties can be used for high space-time resolution stochastic simulations of rain storms that can serve as an input to hydrological models.

Synoptic environment associated with heavy rainfall events on the coastland of Northeast Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliveira, P. T.; Lima, K. C.; Silva, C. M. Santos e.

2013-07-01

Northeast Brazil (NEB) has an extensive coastal area, often hit by natural disasters that bring many social and economic losses. The objective of this work was to study the synoptic environment associated with a heavy rainfall event (HRE) on the coastland of NEB. We used daily rainfall data for coastal area of NEB between the states of Rio Grande do Norte and Bahia, divided into two subregions: north and south coastland. This data was obtained from the hydrometeorological network managed by the Agência Nacional de Águas and the daily data reanalysis from the ERAInterim. For the selection of HRE the technique of quantiles was used, thus defined HRE where at least one rain gauge recorded rainfall above 95th percentile. The interannual distribution of events showed occurrence maximum in La Niña years and minimal in El Niño years. The results suggest that the HRE were formed mainly due to the action of upper-level cyclonic vortex, in hight levels, and due to the action to South Atlantic convergence zone, in low levels.

April 2008 Saharan dust event: Its contribution to PM10 concentrations over the Anatolian Peninsula and relation with synoptic conditions.

PubMed

Kabatas, B; Pierce, R B; Unal, A; Rogal, M J; Lenzen, A

2018-08-15

An online-coupled regional Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) is utilized incorporating 0.1°×0.1° spatial resolution HTAP (Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution) anthropogenic emissions to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of a Saharan dust outbreak, which contributed to high levels (>50μg/m 3 ) of daily PM 10 concentrations over Turkey in April 2008. Aerosol optical depth and cloud optical thickness retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor on board of Aqua satellite are used to better analyze the synoptic conditions that generated the dust outbreak in April 2008. A "Sharav" low pressure system, which transports the dust from Saharan source region over Turkey along the cold front, tends to move faster in WRF-Chem simulations than observed. This causes the predicted dust event to arrive earlier than observed leading to an overestimation of surface PM 10 concentrations in WRF-Chem simulation at the beginning of the event. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Classification of summertime synoptic patterns in Beijing and their associations with boundary layer structure affecting aerosol pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Yucong; Guo, Jianping; Liu, Shuhua; Liu, Huan; Li, Zhanqing; Zhang, Wanchun; Zhai, Panmao

2017-02-01

Meteorological conditions within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) are closely governed by large-scale synoptic patterns and play important roles in air quality by directly and indirectly affecting the emission, transport, formation, and deposition of air pollutants. Partly due to the lack of long-term fine-resolution observations of the PBL, the relationships between synoptic patterns, PBL structure, and aerosol pollution in Beijing have not been well understood. This study applied the obliquely rotated principal component analysis in T-mode to classify the summertime synoptic conditions over Beijing using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis from 2011 to 2014, and investigated their relationships with PBL structure and aerosol pollution by combining numerical simulations, measurements of surface meteorological variables, fine-resolution soundings, the concentration of particles with diameters less than or equal to 2.5 µm, total cloud cover (CLD), and reanalysis data. Among the seven identified synoptic patterns, three types accounted for 67 % of the total number of cases studied and were associated with heavy aerosol pollution events. These particular synoptic patterns were characterized by high-pressure systems located to the east or southeast of Beijing at the 925 hPa level, which blocked the air flow seaward, and southerly PBL winds that brought in polluted air from the southern industrial zone. The horizontal transport of pollutants induced by the synoptic forcings may be the most important factor affecting the air quality of Beijing in summer. In the vertical dimension, these three synoptic patterns featured a relatively low boundary layer height (BLH) in the afternoon, accompanied by high CLD and southerly cold advection from the seas within the PBL. The high CLD reduced the solar radiation reaching the surface, and suppressed the thermal turbulence, leading to lower BLH. Besides, the numerical sensitive experiments show that cold advection induced by the large-scale synoptic forcing may have cooled the PBL, leading to an increase in near-surface stability and a decrease in the BLH in the afternoon. Moreover, when warm advection appeared simultaneously above the top level of the PBL, the thermal inversion layer capping the PBL may have been strengthened, resulting in the further suppression of PBL and thus the deterioration of aerosol pollution levels. This study has important implications for understanding the crucial roles that meteorological factors (at both synoptic and local scales) play in modulating and forecasting aerosol pollution in Beijing and its surrounding area.

Analysis of land surface and synoptic conditions during dust storm events in the Middle East via a new high resolution inventory of mineral dust derived from SEVIRI.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hennen, Mark

2017-04-01

This paper provides the most up-to-date dust climatology for the Middle East, presenting a new high resolution inventory of over 27,000 dust emission events observed over the Middle East in 2006 - 2013. The inventory was derived from the dust RGB product of the Spinning Enhanced Visual and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) on-board Meteosat's second generation satellite (MSG). Mineral dust emissions were derived from visual inspection of the SEVIRI scenes which have 4-5 km2 spatial and 15-minute temporal resolution. The location of every emission event was recorded in a database, along with time and trajectory of dust movement. This is an improvement on previous studies, which derive dust source areas from the daily observations of Aerosol Optical Depth whose maxima do not necessarily coincide with sources of emissions and produces more accurate information on the location of the key dust sources in the region. Results showed that dust sources are constrained to relatively small areas, with 21% of dust emission generated from just 0.9% of total surface area of the Middle East, mainly from eight source regions including the Tigris-Euphrates flood plains of Iraq and Syria, Western and Northern Saudi Arabia and the Sistan Basin in Eastern Iran. The Tigris-Euphrates flood plain was the most active dust region, producing 41% of all dust events with a peak activity in 2009. The southern areas of the Arabian Peninsula recorded very few dust emission observations, in contrast to many previous studies which do not use such high temporal resolution data. The activation and frequency of dust emissions are characterised by strong seasonality developing in response to specific synoptic conditions. To characterise synoptic conditions conducive to the development of dust storms, dust days' emission thresholds, based on number of dust emission events per day / per region and specific to each of the eight main dust emitting regions, were determined. ERA Interim reanalysis data were used to characterise synoptic conditions on the identified dust days. With vegetation cover dictating the ability for surface areas to deflate, Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data was acquired from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrodiometer (MODIS) (MOD13A2) 1km database and correlated with dust emission frequency data in the region of greatest dust activity, the Tigris and Euphrates flood plain in Iraq and Syria.

The use of normalized climatological anomalies to rank synoptic-scale events and their relation to Weather Types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, A. M.; Lorenzo, M. N.; Gimeno, L.; Nieto, R.; Añel, J. A.

2009-09-01

Several methods have been developed to rank meteorological events in terms of severity, social impact or economic impacts. These classifications are not always objective since they depend of several factors, for instance, the observation network is biased towards the densely populated urban areas against rural or oceanic areas. It is also very important to note that not all rare synoptic-scale meteorological events attract significant media attention. In this work we use a comprehensive method of classifying synoptic-scale events adapted from Hart and Grumm, 2001, to the European region (30N-60N, 30W-15E). The main motivation behind this method is that the more unusual the event (a cold outbreak, a heat wave, or a flood), for a given region, the higher ranked it must be. To do so, we use four basic meteorological variables (Height, Temperature, Wind and Specific Humidity) from NCEP reanalysis dataset over the range of 1000hPa to 200hPa at a daily basis from 1948 to 2004. The climatology used embraces the 1961-1990 period. For each variable, the analysis of raking climatological anomalies was computed taking into account the daily normalized departure from climatology at different levels. For each day (from 1948 to 2004) we have four anomaly measures, one for each variable, and another, a combined where the anomaly (total anomaly) is the average of the anomaly of the four variables. Results will be analyzed on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis. Seasonal trends and variability will also be shown. In addition, and given the extent of the database, the expected return periods associated with the anomalies are revealed. Moreover, we also use an automated version of the Lamb weather type (WT) classification scheme (Jones et al, 1993) adapted for the Galicia area (Northwestern corner of the Iberian Peninsula) by Lorenzo et al (2008) in order to compute the daily local circulation regimes in this area. By combining the corresponding daily WT with the five anomaly measures we can evaluate if there is any preferable WT responsible for high or low values of anomalies. Hart, R.E and R.H. Grumm (2001) Using normalized climatological anomalies to rank synoptic-scale events objectivily. Monthly Weather Review, 129, 2426-2442. Jones, P. D., M. Hulme, K. R. Briffa (1993) A comparison of Lamb circulation types with anobjective classification scheme. International Journal of Climatology, 13: 655- 663. Lorenzo M.N., J.J. Taboada and L.Gimeno (2008). Links between circulation weather types and teleconnection patterns and their influence on precipitation patterns in Galicia (NW Spain). International Journal of Climatology 28(11): 1493:1505 DOI: 10.1002/joc.1646.

Climate projection of synoptic patterns forming extremely high wind speed over the Barents Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surkova, Galina; Krylov, Aleksey

2017-04-01

Frequency of extreme weather events is not very high, but their consequences for the human well-being may be hazardous. These seldom events are not always well simulated by climate models directly. Sometimes it is more effective to analyze numerical projection of large-scale synoptic event generating extreme weather. For example, in mid-latitude surface wind speed depends mainly on the sea level pressure (SLP) field - its configuration and horizontal pressure gradient. This idea was implemented for analysis of extreme wind speed events over the Barents Sea. The calendar of high surface wind speed V (10 m above the surface) was prepared for events with V exceeding 99th percentile value in the central part of the Barents Sea. Analysis of probability distribution function of V was carried out on the base of ERA-Interim reanalysis data (6-hours, 0.75x0.75 degrees of latitude and longitude) for the period 1981-2010. Storm wind events number was found to be 240 days. Sea level pressure field over the sea and surrounding area was selected for each storm wind event. For the climate of the future (scenario RCP8.5), projections of SLP from CMIP5 numerical experiments were used. More than 20 climate models results of projected SLP (2006-2100) over the Barents Sea were correlated with modern storm wind SLP fields. Our calculations showed the positive tendency of annual frequency of storm SLP patterns over the Barents Sea by the end of 21st century.

Large Scale Influences on Summertime Extreme Precipitation in the Northeastern United States.

PubMed

Marquardt Collow, Allison B; Bosilovich, Michael G; Koster, Randal D

2016-12-01

Observations indicate that over the last few decades there has been a statistically significant increase in precipitation in the Northeastern United States and that this can be attributed to an increase in precipitation associated with extreme precipitation events. Here we use a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis to examine such events in detail. Daily extreme precipitation events defined at the 75 th and 95 th percentile from gridded gauge observations are identified for a selected region within the Northeast. Atmospheric variables from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications - Version 2 (MERRA-2) are then composited during these events to illustrate the time evolution of associated synoptic structures, with a focus on vertically integrated water vapor fluxes, sea level pressure, and 500 hPa heights. Anomalies of these fields move into the region from the northwest, with stronger anomalies present in the 95 th percentile case. Although previous studies show tropical cyclones are responsible for the most intense extreme precipitation events, only 10% of the events in this study are caused by tropical cyclones. On the other hand, extreme events resulting from cut off low pressure systems have increased. The time period of the study was divided in half to determine how the mean composite has changed over time. An arc of lower sea level pressure along the east coast and a change in the vertical profile of equivalent potential temperature suggest a possible increase in the frequency or intensity of synoptic scale baroclinic disturbances.

Large Scale Influences on Summertime Extreme Precipitation in the Northeastern United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collow, Allison B. Marquardt; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Koster, Randal Dean

2016-01-01

Observations indicate that over the last few decades there has been a statistically significant increase in precipitation in the northeastern United States and that this can be attributed to an increase in precipitation associated with extreme precipitation events. Here a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis is used to examine such events in detail. Daily extreme precipitation events defined at the 75th and 95th percentile from gridded gauge observations are identified for a selected region within the Northeast. Atmospheric variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), are then composited during these events to illustrate the time evolution of associated synoptic structures, with a focus on vertically integrated water vapor fluxes, sea level pressure, and 500-hectopascal heights. Anomalies of these fields move into the region from the northwest, with stronger anomalies present in the 95th percentile case. Although previous studies show tropical cyclones are responsible for the most intense extreme precipitation events, only 10 percent of the events in this study are caused by tropical cyclones. On the other hand, extreme events resulting from cutoff low pressure systems have increased. The time period of the study was divided in half to determine how the mean composite has changed over time. An arc of lower sea level pressure along the East Coast and a change in the vertical profile of equivalent potential temperature suggest a possible increase in the frequency or intensity of synoptic-scale baroclinic disturbances.

Numerical simulation of tornadoes' meteorological conditions over Greece: A case study of tornadic activity over NW Peloponnese on March 25, 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsangouras, Ioannis T.; Nastos, Panagiotis T.; Pytharoulis, Ioannis

2014-05-01

Recent research revealed that NW Peloponnese, Greece is an area that favours pre-frontal tornadic incidence. This study presents the results of the synoptic analysis of the meteorological conditions during a tornado event over NW Peloponnese on March 25, 2009. Further, the role of topography in tornado genesis is examined. The tornado was formed approximately at 10:30 UTC, south-west of Vardas village, crossed the Nea Manolada and faded away at Lappas village, causing several damage. The length of its track was approximately 9-10 km and this tornado was characterized as F2 (Fujita scale) or T4-T5 in TORRO intensity scale. Synoptic analysis was based on ECMWF datasets, as well as on daily composite mean and anomaly of the geopotential heights at the middle and lower troposphere from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In addition, numerous datasets derived from weather observations and remote sensing were used in order to interpret better the examined extreme event. Finally, a numerical simulation was performed using the non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), initialized with ECMWF gridded analyses, with telescoping nested grids that allow the representation of atmospheric circulations ranging from the synoptic scale down to the meso-scale. In the numerical simulations the topography of the inner grid was modified by: a) 0% (actual topography) and b) -100% (without topography).

Characterization of synoptic patterns causing dust outbreaks that affect the Arabian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermida, L.; Merino, A.; Sánchez, J. L.; Fernández-González, S.; García-Ortega, E.; López, L.

2018-01-01

Dust storms pose serious weather hazards in arid and semiarid regions of the earth. Understanding the main synoptic conditions that give rise to dust outbreaks is important for issuing forecasts and warnings to the public in cases of severe storms. The aim of the present study is to determine synoptic patterns that are associated with or even favor dust outbreaks over the Arabian Peninsula. In this respect, red-green-blue dust composite images from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite are used to detect dust outbreaks affecting the Arabian Peninsula, with possible influences in southwestern Asia and northeastern Africa, between 2005 and 2013. The Meteosat imagery yielded a sample of 95 dust storm days. Meteorological fields from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data of wind fields at 10 m and 250 hPa, mean sea level pressure, and geopotential heights at 850 and 500 hPa were obtained for the dust storm days. Using principal component analysis in T-mode and non-hierarchical k-means clustering, we obtained four major atmospheric circulation patterns associated with dust outbreaks during the study days. Cluster 4 had the largest number of days with dust events, which were constrained to summer, and cluster 3 had the fewest. In clusters 1, 2 and 3, the jet stream favored the entry of a low-pressure area or trough that varied in location between the three clusters. Their most northerly location was found in cluster 4, along with an extensive low-pressure area supporting strong winds over the Arabian Peninsula. The spatial distribution of aerosol optical depth for each cluster obtained was characterized using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data. Then, using METAR stations, clusters were also characterized in terms of frequency and visibility.

Assessment of WRF Simulated Precipitation by Meteorological Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagenhoff, Brooke Anne

This study evaluated warm-season precipitation events in a multi-year (2007-2014) database of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations over the Northern Plains and Southern Great Plains. These WRF simulations were run daily in support of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) by the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) for operational forecasts. Evaluating model skill by synoptic pattern allows for an understanding of how model performance varies with particular atmospheric states and will aid forecasters with pattern recognition. To conduct this analysis, a competitive neural network known as the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) was used. SOMs allow the user to represent atmospheric patterns in an array of nodes that represent a continuum of synoptic categorizations. North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data during the warm season (April-September) was used to perform the synoptic typing over the study domains. Simulated precipitation was evaluated against observations provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Stage IV precipitation analysis.

The influence of synoptic weather regimes on UK air quality: regional model studies of tropospheric column NO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, R. J.; Savage, N. H.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Ordóñez, C.; Neal, L. S.

2015-07-01

Synoptic meteorology can have a significant influence on UK air quality. Cyclonic (anticyclonic) conditions lead to the dispersion (accumulation) of air pollutants away from (over) source regions. Meteorology also modifies atmospheric chemistry processes such as photolysis and wet deposition. Previous studies have shown a relationship between observed satellite tropospheric column NO2 and synoptic meteorology in different seasons. Here, we test whether the UK Met Office Air Quality in the Unified Model (AQUM) can reproduce these observations and then use the model to determine the controlling factors. We show that AQUM successfully captures the observed relationships, when sampled under the Lamb Weather Types, an objective classification of midday UK circulation patterns. By using a range of idealised NOx-like tracers with different e-folding lifetimes, we show that under different synoptic regimes the NO2 lifetime in AQUM is approximately 6 h in summer and 12 h in winter. The longer lifetime can explain why synoptic spatial column NO2 variations are more significant in winter compared to summer, due to less NO2 photochemical loss. We also show that cyclonic conditions have more seasonality in column NO2 than anticyclonic conditions as they result in more extreme spatial departures from the wintertime seasonal average. Within a season (summer or winter) under different synoptic regimes, a large proportion of the spatial pattern in the UK column NO2 field can be explained by the idealised model tracers, showing that transport is an important factor in governing the variability of UK air quality on seasonal synoptic timescales.

The Climatology and Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers near the Coast of Southern Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nardi, K.; Barnes, E. A.; Mundhenk, B. D.

2015-12-01

Atmospheric rivers, narrow plumes of anomalously high tropospheric water vapor transport, frequently appear over the Pacific Ocean. Popularized by colloquialisms such as the "Pineapple Express," atmospheric rivers often interact with synoptic-scale disturbances to produce significant precipitation events over land masses. Previous research has focused extensively on the impacts of this phenomenon with respect to high-precipitation storms, namely during boreal winter, on the western coast of the contiguous United States. These events generate great scientific, political, and economic concerns for nearby cities, farms, and tourist destinations. Recently, researchers have investigated similar high-precipitation events along the southern coast of Alaska. Specifically, previous work has discussed several major events occurring during the September-November timeframe. One particular event, in October 2006, produced an all-time record for water levels at several river observation sites. This study examines the climatology of atmospheric rivers in the vicinity of southern Alaska. Data (1979-2014) from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is used to detect atmospheric rivers approaching, and making landfall on, the southern Alaskan coast from the Kenai Peninsula to the Gulf of Alaska region. A seasonal cycle in the strength and frequency of atmospheric rivers over Alaska is shown. Furthermore, the study assesses the synoptic conditions coincident with atmospheric rivers and examines several instances of particularly strong precipitation events. For example, wintertime atmospheric river events tend to occur when a blocking high exists over southeastern Alaska. These results have the potential to help forecasters and emergency managers predict high-precipitation events and lessen potential negative impacts.

Dynamical Influence and Operational Impacts of an Extreme Mediterranean Cold Surge

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

over 45 cm of snowfall in Souda Bay, Crete, which significantly impacted operations at Naval Support Activity Souda Bay. The extratropical wave...cold surge event and its dependence on the upstream synoptic scale events. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Extratropical Cyclone, Souda Bay...Activity Souda Bay. The extratropical wave associated with the cold surge could be classified as a classic life-cycle 1 wave break. The wave-breaking

Urbanization-induced urban heat island and aerosol effects on climate extremes in the Yangtze River Delta region of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Shi; Qian, Yun; Zhao, Chun; Leung, Ruby; Wang, Hailong; Yang, Ben; Fan, Jiwen; Yan, Huiping; Yang, Xiu-Qun; Liu, Dongqing

2017-04-01

The WRF-Chem model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) is integrated for 5 years at convection-permitting scale to investigate the individual and combined impacts of urbanization-induced changes in land cover and pollutant emissions on regional climate in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in eastern China. Simulations with the urbanization effects reasonably reproduced the observed features of temperature and precipitation in the YRD region. Urbanization over the YRD induces an urban heat island (UHI) effect, which increases the surface temperature by 0.53 °C in summer and increases the annual heat wave days at a rate of 3.7 d yr-1 in the major megacities in the YRD, accompanied by intensified heat stress. In winter, the near-surface air temperature increases by approximately 0.7 °C over commercial areas in the cities but decreases in the surrounding areas. Radiative effects of aerosols tend to cool the surface air by reducing net shortwave radiation at the surface. Compared to the more localized UHI effect, aerosol effects on solar radiation and temperature influence a much larger area, especially downwind of the city cluster in the YRD. Results also show that the UHI increases the frequency of extreme summer precipitation by strengthening the convergence and updrafts over urbanized areas in the afternoon, which favor the development of deep convection. In contrast, the radiative forcing of aerosols results in a surface cooling and upper-atmospheric heating, which enhances atmospheric stability and suppresses convection. The combined effects of the UHI and aerosols on precipitation depend on synoptic conditions. Two rainfall events under two typical but different synoptic weather patterns are further analyzed. It is shown that the impact of urban land cover and aerosols on precipitation is not only determined by their influence on local convergence but also modulated by large-scale weather systems. For the case with a strong synoptic forcing associated with stronger winds and larger spatial convergence, the UHI and aerosol effects are relatively weak. When the synoptic forcing is weak, however, the UHI and aerosol effects on local convergence dominate. This suggests that synoptic forcing plays a significant role in modulating the urbanization-induced land-cover and aerosol effects on individual rainfall event. Hence precipitation changes due to urbanization effects may offset each other under different synoptic conditions, resulting in little changes in mean precipitation at longer timescales.

Urbanization-induced urban heat island and aerosol effects on climate extremes in the Yangtze River Delta region of China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhong, Shi; Qian, Yun; Zhao, Chun

The WRF-Chem model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) is integrated for 5 years at convection-permitting scale to investigate the individual and combined impacts of urbanization-induced changes in land cover and pollutant emissions on regional climate in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in eastern China. Simulations with the urbanization effects reasonably reproduced the observed features of temperature and precipitation in the YRD region. Urbanization over the YRD induces an urban heat island (UHI) effect, which increases the surface temperature by 0.53 °C in summer and increases the annual heat wave days at a rate of 3.7 d yr −1 in themore » major megacities in the YRD, accompanied by intensified heat stress. In winter, the near-surface air temperature increases by approximately 0.7 °C over commercial areas in the cities but decreases in the surrounding areas. Radiative effects of aerosols tend to cool the surface air by reducing net shortwave radiation at the surface. Compared to the more localized UHI effect, aerosol effects on solar radiation and temperature influence a much larger area, especially downwind of the city cluster in the YRD. Results also show that the UHI increases the frequency of extreme summer precipitation by strengthening the convergence and updrafts over urbanized areas in the afternoon, which favor the development of deep convection. In contrast, the radiative forcing of aerosols results in a surface cooling and upper-atmospheric heating, which enhances atmospheric stability and suppresses convection. The combined effects of the UHI and aerosols on precipitation depend on synoptic conditions. Two rainfall events under two typical but different synoptic weather patterns are further analyzed. It is shown that the impact of urban land cover and aerosols on precipitation is not only determined by their influence on local convergence but also modulated by large-scale weather systems. For the case with a strong synoptic forcing associated with stronger winds and larger spatial convergence, the UHI and aerosol effects are relatively weak. When the synoptic forcing is weak, however, the UHI and aerosol effects on local convergence dominate. This suggests that synoptic forcing plays a significant role in modulating the urbanization-induced land-cover and aerosol effects on individual rainfall event. Hence precipitation changes due to urbanization effects may offset each other under different synoptic conditions, resulting in little changes in mean precipitation at longer timescales.« less

Urbanization-induced urban heat island and aerosol effects on climate extremes in the Yangtze River Delta region of China

DOE PAGES

Zhong, Shi; Qian, Yun; Zhao, Chun; ...

2017-04-27

The WRF-Chem model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) is integrated for 5 years at convection-permitting scale to investigate the individual and combined impacts of urbanization-induced changes in land cover and pollutant emissions on regional climate in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in eastern China. Simulations with the urbanization effects reasonably reproduced the observed features of temperature and precipitation in the YRD region. Urbanization over the YRD induces an urban heat island (UHI) effect, which increases the surface temperature by 0.53 °C in summer and increases the annual heat wave days at a rate of 3.7 d yr −1 in themore » major megacities in the YRD, accompanied by intensified heat stress. In winter, the near-surface air temperature increases by approximately 0.7 °C over commercial areas in the cities but decreases in the surrounding areas. Radiative effects of aerosols tend to cool the surface air by reducing net shortwave radiation at the surface. Compared to the more localized UHI effect, aerosol effects on solar radiation and temperature influence a much larger area, especially downwind of the city cluster in the YRD. Results also show that the UHI increases the frequency of extreme summer precipitation by strengthening the convergence and updrafts over urbanized areas in the afternoon, which favor the development of deep convection. In contrast, the radiative forcing of aerosols results in a surface cooling and upper-atmospheric heating, which enhances atmospheric stability and suppresses convection. The combined effects of the UHI and aerosols on precipitation depend on synoptic conditions. Two rainfall events under two typical but different synoptic weather patterns are further analyzed. It is shown that the impact of urban land cover and aerosols on precipitation is not only determined by their influence on local convergence but also modulated by large-scale weather systems. For the case with a strong synoptic forcing associated with stronger winds and larger spatial convergence, the UHI and aerosol effects are relatively weak. When the synoptic forcing is weak, however, the UHI and aerosol effects on local convergence dominate. This suggests that synoptic forcing plays a significant role in modulating the urbanization-induced land-cover and aerosol effects on individual rainfall event. Hence precipitation changes due to urbanization effects may offset each other under different synoptic conditions, resulting in little changes in mean precipitation at longer timescales.« less

Polynya dynamics and associated atmospheric forcing at the Ronne Ice Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebner, Lars; Heinemann, Günther

2014-05-01

The Ronne Ice Shelf is known as one of the most active regions of polynya developments around the Antarctic continent. Low temperatures are prevailing throughout the whole year, particularly in winter. It is generally recognized that polynya formations are primarily forced by offshore winds and secondarily by ocean currents. Many authors have addressed this issue previously at the Ross Ice Shelf and Adélie Coast and connected polynya dynamics to strong katabatic surge events. Such investigations of atmospheric dynamics and simultaneous polynya occurrence are still severely underrepresented for the southwestern part of the Weddell Sea and especially for the Ronne Ice Shelf. Due to the very flat terrain gradients of the ice shelf katabatic winds are of minor importance in that area. Other atmospheric processes must therefore play a crucial role for polynya developments at the Ronne Ice Shelf. High-resolution simulations have been carried out for the Weddell Sea region using the non-hydrostatic NWP model COSMO from the German Meteorological Service (DWD). For the austral autumn and winter (March to August) 2008 daily forecast simulations were conducted with the consideration of daily sea-ice coverage deduced from the passive microwave system AMSR-E. These simulations are used to analyze the synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric dynamics of the Weddell Sea region and find linkages to polynya occurrence at the Ronne Ice Shelf. For that reason, the relation between the surface wind speed, the synoptic pressure gradient in the free atmosphere and polynya area is investigated. Seven significant polynya events are identified for the simulation period, three in the autumn and four in the winter season. It can be shown that in almost all cases synoptic cyclones are the primary polynya forcing systems. In most cases the timely interaction of several passing cyclones in the northern and central Weddell Sea leads to maintenance of a strong synoptic pressure gradient above the Ronne Ice Shelf. This strong synoptic forcing results in a moderate to strong offshore surface wind. It turned out that these synoptic depressions lead to strong barrier winds above the northwestern Ronne Ice Shelf and along the eastern flank of the Antarctic Peninsula. The fact, that these barrier winds often appear prior or during the initial break up of sea ice at the shelf ice edge, suggest that this mesoscale wind phenomenon plays a crucial role for polynya development. Furthermore, even mesoscale cyclogenesis above the Ronne Ice Shelf and the following northeastward passage of such a system can break up sea-ice cover under large-scale stationary weather conditions.

Identifying Patterns in Extreme Precipitation Risk and the Related Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation can harm human life and assets through flooding, hail, landslides, or debris flows. Flood risk assessments typically concentrate on river or mountain torrent channels, using water depth, flow velocity, and/or sediment deposition to quantify the risk. In addition, extreme events with high recurrence intervals are often the main focus. However, damages from short-term and localized convective showers often occur away from watercourses. Also, damages from more frequent small scale extremes, although usually less disastrous, can accumulate to considerable financial burdens. Extreme convective precipitation is expected to intensify in a warmer climate, and vulnerability patterns might change in tandem with changes in the character of precipitation and flood types. This has consequences for adaptation planners who want to establish effective protection measures and reduce the cost from natural hazards. Here we merge hydrological and exposure data to identify patterns of risk under varying synoptic conditions. Exposure is calculated from a database of 76k damage claims reported to the national disaster fund in 480 municipalities in south eastern Austria from 1990-2015. Hydrological data comprise sub-daily precipitation (59 gauges) and streamflow (62 gauges) observations. We use synoptic circulation types to identify typical precipitation patterns. They indicate the character of precipitation even if a gauge is not in close proximity, facilitating potential future research with regional climate model data. Results show that more claims are reported under synoptic conditions favouring convective precipitation (on average 1.5-3 times more than on other days). For agrarian municipalities, convective precipitation damages are among the costliest after long low-intensity precipitation events. In contrast, Alpine communities are particularly vulnerable to convective high-intensity rainfall. In addition to possible observational error, uncertainty is present in damage reporting errors, claims from private insurers and adaptation effects after damaging events. As for the latter, preliminary results indicate that investments regularly occur after big events, which may skew subsequent damage claims. Their effectiveness, though, needs to be analyzed in future research.

Winter Storm Jupiter of January 2017: Meteorological Drivers, Synoptic Evolution, and Climate Change Considerations in Portland, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dean, S.; Loikith, P. C.

2017-12-01

Although the Pacific Northwest has some of the highest wintertime precipitation in the United States, most urban areas receive little in the way of snow. While 37 inches of wintertime rain fall in Portland on average annually, the city only receives four inches of snow on average. Although wintertime extreme snowstorm events are rare in Portland, in the last century they have occurred about once every ten years. On January 10-12th, 2017, winter storm Jupiter brought 11 inches of snow to downtown Portland within a 12-hour period, making it the largest snowstorm for the city in twenty years. The city declared a state of emergency, over 30,000 citizens lost power, and thousands of businesses were forced to shut down. The anomalously cold air and high amounts of snowfall in a short amount of time made the storm different from others in recent years. This study aims to discover the meteorological drivers behind the January 2017 snowstorm in Portland, Oregon. We also aim to understand how this storm compared with other local storms in the past, and assess the likelihood of a similar event occurring in the future. To do this, reanalysis data were used to display the synoptic evolution of the January 2017 storm. We compared this storm with two other extreme snowfall events from December 2008 and January 1980, assessing meteorological similarities and differences between storms. Results show that the 2017 event was associated with a slow moving, strong low-pressure system accompanied by a 500 hPa trough. These large-scale features helped drive slow moving, locally heavy snow bands over the city of Portland. At the same time, an unusually strong Arctic high-pressure system moved into the interior Pacific Northwest allowing for strong cold air advection west through the Cascade Mountain Range and Columbia River Gorge. Temperature trends show warming of 1-2 °C in the Pacific Northwest since the middle of the last century. Because of this, uncertainty associated with occurrence and magnitude of extreme snowfall events with respect to climate change must also be assessed. Understanding essential questions about the synoptic evolution of extreme snowfall events will better equip meteorologists and city planners to understand how this event occurred, and what to look for to better prepare Pacific Northwest cities for future storms.

Repeat synoptic sampling reveals drivers of change in carbon and nutrient chemistry of Arctic catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarnetske, J. P.; Abbott, B. W.; Bowden, W. B.; Iannucci, F.; Griffin, N.; Parker, S.; Pinay, G.; Aanderud, Z.

2017-12-01

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nutrients, and other solute concentrations are increasing in rivers across the Arctic. Two hypotheses have been proposed to explain these trends: 1. distributed, top-down permafrost degradation, and 2. discrete, point-source delivery of DOC and nutrients from permafrost collapse features (thermokarst). While long-term monitoring at a single station cannot discriminate between these mechanisms, synoptic sampling of multiple points in the stream network could reveal the spatial structure of solute sources. In this context, we sampled carbon and nutrient chemistry three times over two years in 119 subcatchments of three distinct Arctic catchments (North Slope, Alaska). Subcatchments ranged from 0.1 to 80 km2, and included three distinct types of Arctic landscapes - mountainous, tundra, and glacial-lake catchments. We quantified the stability of spatial patterns in synoptic water chemistry and analyzed high-frequency time series from the catchment outlets across the thaw season to identify source areas for DOC, nutrients, and major ions. We found that variance in solute concentrations between subcatchments collapsed at spatial scales between 1 to 20 km2, indicating a continuum of diffuse- and point-source dynamics, depending on solute and catchment characteristics (e.g. reactivity, topography, vegetation, surficial geology). Spatially-distributed mass balance revealed conservative transport of DOC and nitrogen, and indicates there may be strong in-stream retention of phosphorus, providing a network-scale confirmation of previous reach-scale studies in these Arctic catchments. Overall, we present new approaches to analyzing synoptic data for change detection and quantification of ecohydrological mechanisms in ecosystems in the Arctic and beyond.

A Coastal Bay Summer Breeze Study, Part 1: Results of the Quiberon 2006 Experimental Campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mestayer, Patrice G.; Calmet, Isabelle; Herlédant, Olivier; Barré, Sophie; Piquet, Thibaud; Rosant, Jean-Michel

2018-04-01

The Quiberon 2006 experiment was launched to document the onset and development of land and sea breezes over a semi-circular coastal bay propitious to inshore sailing competitions. The measurements were taken during the 2 weeks of 16-28 June 2006. Micrometeorological variables were recorded at three shore sites around the bay using turbulence sensors on 10-30-m high masts, on four instrumented catamarans at selected sites within the bay, and at a fourth shore site with a Sodar. Synoptic data and local measurements are analyzed here from the point of view of both micrometeorologists and competition skippers, testing in particular the empirical rules of breeze veering and backing according to the wind direction with respect to the coastline orientation at the mesoscale (the quadrant theory). Our analysis focuses on the patterns of lower-altitude wind direction and speed around the bay and over the water basin, and the temporal variations during the periods of the breeze onset, establishment and thermal reinforcement. In offshore synoptic-flow conditions (quadrants 1 and 2), the clockwise rotation of the surface flow had a very large amplitude, reaching up to 360°. The breeze strength was negatively correlated to that of the synoptic wind speed. In conditions of onshore synoptic flow from the west (quadrant 3) at an angle to the mainland coast but perpendicular to the Quiberon peninsula, the rotation of the flow was backwards in the early morning and clockwise during the day with a moderate amplitude (40°-50°) around the synoptic wind direction. As the surface wind speed was much larger than the synoptic wind speed, such a case we have designated as a "synoptic breeze". The breeze onset was shown to fail several times under the influence of weak non-thermal events, e.g., the passage of an occluded front or clouds or an excess of convection. Finally, several local-scale influences of the complex coastal shape appeared in our measurements, e.g., wind fanning in the lee of the isthmus and airflow skirting around the peninsula forehand.

Multiplatform sampling (ship, aircraft, and satellite) of a Gulf Stream warm core ring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Raymond C.; Brown, Otis B.; Hoge, Frank E.; Baker, Karen S.; Evans, Robert H.

1987-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the ability to meet the need to measure distributions of physical and biological properties of the ocean over large areas synoptically and over long time periods by means of remote sensing utilizing contemporaneous buoy, ship, aircraft, and satellite (i.e., multiplatform) sampling strategies. A mapping of sea surface temperature and chlorophyll fields in a Gulf Stream warm core ring using the multiplatform approach is described. Sampling capabilities of each sensing system are discussed as background for the data collected by means of these three dissimilar methods. Commensurate space/time sample sets from each sensing system are compared, and their relative accuracies in space and time are determined. The three-dimensional composite maps derived from the data set provide a synoptic perspective unobtainable from single platforms alone.

The influence of synoptic weather regimes on UK air quality: regional model studies of tropospheric column NO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, R. J.; Savage, N. H.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Ordóñez, C.; Neal, L. S.

2015-10-01

Synoptic meteorology can have a significant influence on UK air quality. Cyclonic conditions lead to the dispersion of air pollutants away from source regions, while anticyclonic conditions lead to their accumulation over source regions. Meteorology also modifies atmospheric chemistry processes such as photolysis and wet deposition. Previous studies have shown a relationship between observed satellite tropospheric column NO2 and synoptic meteorology in different seasons. Here, we test whether the UK Met Office Air Quality in the Unified Model (AQUM) can reproduce these observations and then use the model to explore the relative importance of various factors. We show that AQUM successfully captures the observed relationships when sampled under the Lamb weather types, an objective classification of midday UK circulation patterns. By using a range of idealized NOx-like tracers with different e-folding lifetimes, we show that under different synoptic regimes the NO2 lifetime in AQUM is approximately 6 h in summer and 12 h in winter. The longer lifetime can explain why synoptic spatial tropospheric column NO2 variations are more significant in winter compared to summer, due to less NO2 photochemical loss. We also show that cyclonic conditions have more seasonality in tropospheric column NO2 than anticyclonic conditions as they result in more extreme spatial departures from the wintertime seasonal average. Within a season (summer or winter) under different synoptic regimes, a large proportion of the spatial pattern in the UK tropospheric column NO2 field can be explained by the idealized model tracers, showing that transport is an important factor in governing the variability of UK air quality on seasonal synoptic timescales.

Metal loading in Soda Butte Creek upstream of Yellowstone National Park, Montana and Wyoming; a retrospective analysis of previous research; and quantification of metal loading, August 1999

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boughton, G.K.

2001-01-01

Acid drainage from historic mining activities has affected the water quality and aquatic biota of Soda Butte Creek upstream of Yellowstone National Park. Numerous investigations focusing on metals contamination have been conducted in the Soda Butte Creek basin, but interpretations of how metals contamination is currently impacting Soda Butte Creek differ greatly. A retrospective analysis of previous research on metal loading in Soda Butte Creek was completed to provide summaries of studies pertinent to metal loading in Soda Butte Creek and to identify data gaps warranting further investigation. Identification and quantification of the sources of metal loading to Soda Butte Creek was recognized as a significant data gap. The McLaren Mine tailings impoundment and mill site has long been identified as a source of metals but its contribution relative to the total metal load entering Yellowstone National Park was unknown. A tracer-injection and synoptic-sampling study was designed to determine metal loads upstream of Yellowstone National Park.A tracer-injection and synoptic-sampling study was conducted on an 8,511-meter reach of Soda Butte Creek from upstream of the McLaren Mine tailings impoundment and mill site downstream to the Yellowstone National Park boundary in August 1999. Synoptic-sampling sites were selected to divide the creek into discrete segments. A lithium bromide tracer was injected continuously into Soda Butte Creek for 24.5 hours. Downstream dilution of the tracer and current-meter measurements were used to calculate the stream discharge. Stream discharge values, combined with constituent concentrations obtained by synoptic sampling, were used to quantify constituent loading in each segment of Soda Butte Creek.Loads were calculated for dissolved calcium, silica, and sulfate, as well as for dissolved and total-recoverable iron, aluminum, and manganese. Loads were not calculated for cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc because these elements were infrequently detected in mainstem synoptic samples. All of these elements were detected at high concentrations in the seeps draining the McLaren Mine tailings impoundment. The lack of detection of these elements in the downstream mainstem synoptic samples is probably because of sorption (coprecipitation and adsorption) to metal colloids in the stream.Most of the metal load that entered Soda Butte Creek was contributed by the inflows draining the McLaren Mine tailings impoundment (between 505 meters and 760 meters downstream from the tracer-injection site), Republic Creek (1,859 meters), and Unnamed Tributary (8,267 meters). Results indicate that treatment or removal of the McLaren Mine tailings impoundment would greatly reduce metal loading in Soda Butte Creek upstream of Yellowstone National Park. However, removing only that single source may not reduce metal loads to acceptable levels. The sources of metal loading in Republic Creek and Unnamed Tributary merit further investigation.

Machine Learning-based Transient Brokers for Real-time Classification of the LSST Alert Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narayan, Gautham; Zaidi, Tayeb; Soraisam, Monika; ANTARES Collaboration

2018-01-01

The number of transient events discovered by wide-field time-domain surveys already far outstrips the combined followup resources of the astronomical community. This number will only increase as we progress towards the commissioning of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), breaking the community's current followup paradigm. Transient brokers - software to sift through, characterize, annotate and prioritize events for followup - will be a critical tool for managing alert streams in the LSST era. Developing the algorithms that underlie the brokers, and obtaining simulated LSST-like datasets prior to LSST commissioning, to train and test these algorithms are formidable, though not insurmountable challenges. The Arizona-NOAO Temporal Analysis and Response to Events System (ANTARES) is a joint project of the National Optical Astronomy Observatory and the Department of Computer Science at the University of Arizona. We have been developing completely automated methods to characterize and classify variable and transient events from their multiband optical photometry. We describe the hierarchical ensemble machine learning algorithm we are developing, and test its performance on sparse, unevenly sampled, heteroskedastic data from various existing observational campaigns, as well as our progress towards incorporating these into a real-time event broker working on live alert streams from time-domain surveys.

Improving Prediction of Large-scale Regime Transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyakum, J. R.; Roebber, P.; Bosart, L. F.; Honor, A.; Bunker, E.; Low, Y.; Hart, J.; Bliankinshtein, N.; Kolly, A.; Atallah, E.; Huang, Y.

2017-12-01

Cool season atmospheric predictability over the CONUS on subseasonal times scales (1-4 weeks) is critically dependent upon the structure, configuration, and evolution of the North Pacific jet stream (NPJ). The NPJ can be perturbed on its tropical side on synoptic time scales by recurving and transitioning tropical cyclones (TCs) and on subseasonal time scales by longitudinally varying convection associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Likewise, the NPJ can be perturbed on its poleward side on synoptic time scales by midlatitude and polar disturbances that originate over the Asian continent. These midlatitude and polar disturbances can often trigger downstream Rossby wave propagation across the North Pacific, North America, and the North Atlantic. The project team is investigating the following multiscale processes and features: the spatiotemporal distribution of cyclone clustering over the Northern Hemisphere; cyclone clustering as influenced by atmospheric blocking and the phases and amplitudes of the major teleconnection indices, ENSO and the MJO; composite and case study analyses of representative cyclone clustering events to establish the governing dynamics; regime change predictability horizons associated with cyclone clustering events; Arctic air mass generation and modification; life cycles of the MJO; and poleward heat and moisture transports of subtropical air masses. A critical component of the study is weather regime classification. These classifications are defined through: the spatiotemporal clustering of surface cyclogenesis; a general circulation metric combining data at 500-hPa and the dynamic tropopause; Self Organizing Maps (SOM), constructed from dynamic tropopause and 850 hPa equivalent potential temperature data. The resultant lattice of nodes is used to categorize synoptic classes and their predictability, as well as to determine the robustness of the CFSv2 model climate relative to observations. Transition pathways between these synoptic classes, both in the observations and the CFSv2, are investigated. At a future point in the project, the results from these multiscale investigations will be integrated in the form of a prediction tool for important variables (temperatures, precipitation and their extremes) for the 1-4 week timeframe.

Using Synoptic Systems' Typical Wind Trajectories for the Analysis of Potential Atmospheric Long-Distance Dispersal of Lumpy Skin Disease Virus.

PubMed

Klausner, Z; Fattal, E; Klement, E

2017-04-01

Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is an infectious, arthropod-borne virus that affects mostly cattle. Solitary outbreaks have occurred in Israel in 1989 and 2006. In both years, the outbreaks occurred parallel to a severe outbreak in Egypt, and LSDV was hypothesized to be transmitted from Egypt to Israel via long-distance dispersal (LDD) of infected vectors by wind. The aim of this study was to identify possible events of such transport. At the first stage, we identified the relevant synoptic systems that allowed wind transport from Egypt to Israel during the 3 months preceding each outbreak. Three-dimensional backwards Lagrangian trajectories were calculated from the receptor sites in Israel for each occurrence of such relevant synoptic system. The analysis revealed several events in which atmospheric connection routes between the affected locations in Egypt and Israel were established. Specifically, during the 1989, Damietta and Port Said stand out as likely sources for the outbreak in Israel. In 2006, different locations acted simultaneously as potential sources of the outbreak in Israel. These locations were situated in the Nile delta, the Suez Canal and in northern Sinai. The analysis pointed out Sharav low and Shallow Cyprus low to the North to be the most likely systems to enable windborne transport from Egypt to Israel. These findings are of high importance for the analysis of the risk of transmission of vectorborne viruses in the eastern Mediterranean region. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Impact of Synoptic-Scale Factors on Rainfall Forecast in Different Stages of a Persistent Heavy Rainfall Event in South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Murong; Meng, Zhiyong

2018-04-01

This study investigates the stage-dependent rainfall forecast skills and the associated synoptic-scale features in a persistent heavy rainfall event in south China, Guangdong Province, during 29-31 March 2014, using operational global ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. This persistent rainfall was divided into two stages with a better precipitation forecast skill in Stage 2 (S2) than Stage 1 (S1) although S2 had a longer lead time. Using ensemble-based sensitivity analysis, key synoptic-scale factors that affected the rainfall were diagnosed by correlating the accumulated precipitation of each stage to atmospheric state variables in the middle of respective stage. The precipitation in both stages was found to be significantly correlated with midlevel trough, low-level vortex, and particularly the low-level jet on the southeast flank of the vortex and its associated moisture transport. The rainfall forecast skill was mainly determined by the forecast accuracy in the location of the low-level jet, which was possibly related to the different juxtapositions between the direction of the movement of the low-level vortex and the orientation of the low-level jet. The uncertainty in rainfall forecast in S1 was mainly from the location uncertainty of the low-level jet, while the uncertainty in rainfall forecast in S2 was mainly from the width uncertainty of the low-level jet with the relatively accurate location of the low-level jet.

Southern Greenland water vapour isotopic composition at the crossroads of Atlantic and Arctic moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonne, J. L.; Steen-Larsen, H. C.; Risi, C. M.; Werner, M.; Sodemann, H.; Lacour, J. L.; Fettweis, X.; Cesana, G.; Delmotte, M.; Cattani, O.; Clerbaux, C.; Sveinbjörnsdottir, A. E.; Masson-Delmotte, V.

2014-12-01

Since September 2011, a continuous water vapour isotopic composition monitoring instrument has been remotely operated in Ivittuut (61.21°N, 48.17°W), southern Greenland. Meteorological parameters are monitored and precipitation has been sampled and analysed for isotopic composition, suggesting equilibrium between surface vapour and precipitation. The data depict small summer diurnal variations. δ18O and deuterium excess (d-excess) are generally anti-correlated and show important seasonal variations (with respective amplitudes of 10 and 20 ‰), and large synoptic variations associated to low-pressure systems (typically +5‰ on δ18O and -15‰ on d-excess). The moisture sources, estimated based on Lagrangian back-trajectories, are primarily influenced by the western North Atlantic, and north-eastern American continent. Notable are important seasonal and synoptic shifts of the moisture sources, and sporadic influences of the Arctic or the eastern North Atlantic. Moisture sources variations can be related to changes in water vapour isotopic composition, and the isotopic fingerprints can be attributed to the areas of moisture origins. Isotopic enabled AGCMs nudged to meteorology (LMDZiso, ECHAM5-wiso), despite biases, correctly capture the δ18O changes, but underestimate the d-excess changes. They allow to identify a high correlation between the southern Greenland d-excess and the simulated relative humidity and d-excess in the moisture source region south of Greenland. An extreme high temperature event in July 2012 affecting all Greenland, similar to ice sheet melt events during the medieval periods and one event in 1889 documented by Greenland ice core records, has been analysed regarding water vapour isotopic composition, using remote sensing (IASI) and in situ observations from Bermuda to northern Greenland (NEEM station). Our southern Greenland observations allow to track the water vapour evolution during this event along the moisture transport path, depicting the northward propagation of an isotopic signal inherited from the meteorological conditions during evaporation. Overall, our observations provide valuable information for interpreting Greenland ice core records as well as for evaluating water vapour isotopic simulations in atmospheric models.

Synoptic evolution of Atmospheric River landfalls in Northern California and the pre-conditioning of their characteristics by the climate state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gershunov, A.; Guirguis, K.; Shulgina, T.; Clemesha, R.; Ralph, M.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) contribute the lion's share of water resources for California, but can also cause flooding and draw heavily on emergency resources of state and local governments. Comprehensive probabilistic tools relating landfalling ARs to pre-existing weather/climate conditions could be useful for subseasonal forecasting, emergency preparedness and water resource management. We examine ARs targeting the Northern California coast using long-term observations of synoptic-scale circulation, high-resolution precipitation, and a seven-decade-long catalog of AR landfalls to quantify distinct orientations of landfalling ARs. Using a probabilistic approach to relate these historic events to precursor weather patterns, we identify synoptic circulation patterns that precede AR landfalls at various lead times in the range of 0-30 days. Examination of the evolution of these precursor patterns reveals subtle but important differences in the atmospheric states that lead to AR landfalls versus those that don't. Synoptic precursors can also differentiate between orientations of ARs at landfall, which produce rather different precipitation patterns over the region's complex topography. Moreover, low-frequency climate forcing appears to modulate the likelihood of AR landfalls, as well as their preferred orientations. These results provide a link between seasonal and subseasonal timescales and suggest a new approach toward extended-range prediction of land-falling atmospheric rivers and their related precipitation.

An Overview of Synoptic and Mesoscale Factors Contributing to the Disastrous Atlanta Flood of 2009

EPA Science Inventory

If IPCC (2007) projections are accurate, the frequency and severity of extreme hydroclimate events (e.g., droughts, floods) will likely increase in response to the acceleration in the water cycle. Additionally, a majority of the population lives in urban areas, and by 2030 this ...

Synoptic conditions favouring the occurrence of dust transport from Africa toward Sardinia Island.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canu, Annalisa; Pellizzaro, Grazia; Pintus, Gabriella; Duce, Pierpaolo

2016-04-01

Dust events that reach Italy have usually origin in the Sahara and Sahel regions (north-western part of Africa), which represent the dust sources nearest to Italy. In those regions the dust-lifting activity occurs in a remarkable way. Every dust event is different from the others; in fact dust transport and dust concentration in the air can vary remarkably depending on the synoptic situation. In Sardinia, dust events are more frequent in the May-November period, but they can also take place in the December-April period. The main aim of this work was to describe dust outbreaks in Sardinia and to identify the main meteorological scenarios that originate the transport of dust towards the central and western Mediterranean Basin. The evaluation of the geographical dispersion of Saharan dust was performed by using MODIS satellite data and Meteosat imagery combined with SKIRON forecasting model. The origin and the trajectory of the dust carried by winds towards Italy were inferred by the NOAA HYSPLIT model (Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model). In addition, PM10 (particulate matter with a diameter of less than 10 μm) and meteorological data registered by the ARPAS (Regional Environmental Protection Agency of Sardinia) monitoring stations were used to highlight the arrival of African air masses in Sardinia. The study was carried out during the 2014. A total of five events occurred during the year (two in spring and three in autumn) were analyzed. The origin of air masses loaded with dust from North Africa was confirmed by satellite imagery and 3-days air mass backward trajectories calculated by the NOAA HYSPLIT model. The analysis of the PM10 daily pattern registered at northern and southern Sardinia sites showed a rising of values during the dust event. The arrival of air masses from Africa caused the daily mean air temperature to rise whereas relative humidity values decreased. Finally, the results showed that all the event analyzed were characterized by a low-pressure system over the Iberian Peninsula that extended towards Morocco and by the associated high-pressure system over the North-East Africa (Algeria, Tunisia and Libya) and Sicily. This synoptic structure (low pressure over North-Western Africa) forced the dusty air masses towards the Mediterranean basin, favouring the transport of African air masses towards the Sardinia island.

Aquatic Communities and Selected Water Chemistry in St. Vrain Creek near the City of Longmont, Colorado, Wastewater-Treatment Plant, 2005 and 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zuellig, Robert E.; Sprague, Lori A.; Collins, Jim A.; Cox, Oliver N.

2007-01-01

In 2005, the U.S. Geological Survey and the City of Longmont, Colo., began a study to document chemical characteristics of St. Vrain Creek that had previously been unavailable either due to high cost of analysis or lack of analytical capability. Stream samples were collected at seven sites on St. Vrain Creek during the spring of 2005 and 2006 for analysis of wastewater compounds. A Lagrangian-sampling design was followed during each sampling event, and time-of-travel studies were conducted just prior to each sampling event to determine appropriate sampling times for the synoptic. In addition, semipermeable membrane devices, passive samplers that concentrate hydrophobic organic chemicals, were installed at six sites during the spring of 2005 and 2006 for approximately 4 weeks. After retrieval, contaminant residues concentrated in the semipermeable membrane devices were recovered and used in a toxicity assay that provided a screen for aryl hydrocarbon receptor type compounds, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls, dioxins, and furans. In addition, the U.S. Geological Survey summarized information on macroinvertebrate and fish communities known from St. Vrain Creek dating back to the early 1900s in order to assess their utility in evaluating wastewater-treatment plant upgrades and habitat improvement projects. Unfortunately, because of inconsistencies in data collection these data cannot be used as intended; however, they are useful for understanding to some degree gross patterns in fish species distribution, but less so for macroinvertebrates.

Atmospheric River Frequency and Intensity Changes in CMIP5 Climate Model Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M.; Mass, C.; Salathe, E. P., Jr.

2012-12-01

Most extreme precipitation events that occur along the North American west coast are associated with narrow plumes of above-average water vapor concentration that stretch from the tropics or subtropics to the West Coast. These events generally occur during the wet season (October-March) and are referred to as atmospheric rivers (AR). ARs can cause major river management problems, damage from flooding or landslides, and loss of life. It is currently unclear how these events will change in frequency and intensity as a result of climate change in the coming century. While climate model global mean precipitation match observations reasonably well in historical runs, precipitation frequency and intensity is generally poorly represented at local scales; however, synoptic-scale features are more realistically simulated by climate models, and AR events can be identified by extremely high values of integrated water vapor flux at points near the West Coast. There have been many recent studies indicating changes in synoptic-scale features under climate change that could have meaningful impacts on the frequency and intensity of ARs. In this study, a suite of CMIP5 models are used to analyze predicted changes in frequency and intensity of AR events impacting the West Coast from the contemporary period (1970-1999) to the end of this century (2070-2099). Generally, integrated water vapor is predicted to increase in these models (both the mean and extremes) while low-level wind decreases and upper-level wind increases. This study aims to determine the influence of these changes on precipitation intensity in AR events in future climate simulations.

A Synoptic- and Planetary-Scale Analysis of Widespread North American Ice Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCray, C.; Gyakum, J. R.; Atallah, E.

2017-12-01

Freezing rain can have devastating impacts, particularly when it persists for many hours. Predicting the precise temperature stratification necessary for long duration freezing rain events remains an important forecast challenge. To better elucidate the conditions responsible for the most severe events, we concentrate on surface observations of long-duration (6 or more hours) freezing rain events over North America from 1979-2016. Furthermore, we analyze cases in which multiple stations observe long-duration events simultaneously. Following these cases over successive days allows us to generate maps of freezing rain "tracks." We then categorize recurring geographic patterns to examine the meteorological conditions leading to these events. While freezing rain is most frequently observed in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada, long-duration events have affected areas as far south as the Gulf Coast. Notably, a disproportionately large number of very long duration (18 or more hours) events have occurred in the Southern Plains states relative to the climatological annual frequency of freezing rain there. Classification of individual cases shows that most of these very long duration events are associated with a recurring pattern which produces freezing rain along a southwest-northeast swath from Texas/Oklahoma into the northeastern U.S. and eastern Canada. Storms classified within this pattern include the January 1998 and December 2013 ice storms. While this pattern is the most widespread, additional spatially extensive patterns occur. One of these areas extends from the Southern Plains eastward along the Gulf Coast to Georgia and the Carolinas. A third category of events extends from the Upper Midwest into the northeastern U.S. and southeastern Canada. The expansive areal extent and long duration of these events make them especially problematic. An analysis of the planetary- to synoptic-scale settings responsible for these cases and the differences among individual storms is performed to provide forecasters with additional tools/insight towards the prediction of these damaging weather events.

Selenium in the upper Blackfoot River watershed, southeastern Idaho, 2001-12

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mebane, Christopher A.; Mladenka, Greg; Van Every, Lynn; Williams, Marshall L.; Hardy, Mark A.; Garbarino, John R.

2014-11-05

For the annual spring synoptic samples collected by the IDEQ along the main stem Blackfoot River and major tributaries, selenium concentrations ranged from less than 2 to 870 μg/L in 176 samples. In most years, the synoptic sampling showed that the majority of the selenium loads passing the USGS streamgage at the outlet of the watershed could be attributed to a single tributary, East Mill Creek, which enters the Blackfoot River through Spring Creek. Selenium loads decreased by about half from East Mill Creek before reaching the Blackfoot River, suggesting that much selenium is at least temporarily removed from the water column by uptake by aquatic vegetation or by losses to sediment. Similar decreases in selenium loads occurred through the main stem Blackfoot River before reaching the outlet in low flow years, but not in high flow years.

North American Extreme Temperature Events and Related Large Scale Meteorological Patterns: A Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, William J., Jr.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.;

Water-quality data for the Ohio River from Willow Island Dam to Belleville Dam, West Virginia and Ohio, May-October 1993

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, K.F.

1996-01-01

This report contains water-quality data for the Ohio River from river mile 160.6 (1.1 mile upstream from Willow Island Dam) to river mile 203.6 (0.3 mile upstream from Belleville Dam) that were collected during the summer and fall of 1993. The data were collected to establish the water quality of the Ohio River and to use in assessing the proposed effects of hydropower development on the water quality of the Ohio River. Water quality was monitored by a combination of synoptic field measurements, laboratory analyses, and continuous- record monitoring. Field measurements of water- quality characteristics were made along a longitudinal transect with 24 mid-channel sampling sites; cross-sectional transects of water-quality measurements were made at six of these sites. Water-quality measurements also were made at six sites located on the back-channel (West Virginia) sides of Marietta, Muskingum, and Blennerhassett Islands. At each longitudinal-transect and back- channel sampling site, measurements of specific conductance, pH, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen concentration were made at three depths (about 3.3 feet below the surface of the water, middle of the water column, and near the bottom of the river). Cross-sectional transects consisted of three to four detailed vertical profiles of the same characteristics. Water samples were collected at three depths in the mid-channel vertical profile in each cross-sectional transect and were analyzed for concentrations of phytoplankton chlorophyll a and chlorophyll b. Estimates of the depth of light penetration (Secchi disk transparency) were made at phytoplankton- pigment-sampling locations whenever light and river-surface conditions were appropriate. Each synoptic sampling event was completed in 2 days or less. The entire network was sampled 10 times from May 24 to October 27, 1993. Continuous-record monitoring of water quality consisted of hourly measurments of specific conductance, pH, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen concentration that were made at a depth of 6.6 feet at the ends of the upstream and downstream wingwalls at Willow Island Dam. Continuous-record monitors were operated from May through October 1993.

Crisis contained, The Department of Energy at Three Mile Island: a history

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cantelon, P L; Williams, R C

An account is given of the response of US DOE to the Three Mile Island-2 accident on March 28, 1979. The accident is treated as though it was a military battle. A synoptic chronologgy of the accident events and of DOE and other responses is included. (DLC)

A Transition in Atmospheric Moisture Transport as Observed in Stable Isotope Data From Mount Wrangell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, K.; Field, R.; Benson, C.

2007-12-01

Measurements made at the summit of Mount Wrangell in the Saint Elias Mountains during a storm in early August 1980 show a change in δ18O that approaches that normally observed to occur between winter and summer in the same region. We explore the synoptic-scale conditions associated with this storm with a view to understanding the processes responsible for this large change in δ18O. Using a variety of diagnostic techniques including satellite imagery, reanalysis data and back-trajectories, we show that during this event there was a dramatic transition in the atmospheric moisture transport to Mount Wrangell from a sub-tropical source region over the central Pacific to an extra-tropical source region over Siberia. This transition was mediated by the interaction of two synoptic-scale weather systems, the semi-permanent high situated over the northeastern Pacific Ocean and a transient extra-tropical cyclone that entered the Alaska region from the west. The implications that such events have on the reconstruction of climate signals contained in ice cores from the Saint Elias region will be discussed.

Streamflow and water-quality conditions including geologic sources and processes affecting selenium loading in the Toll Gate Creek watershed, Aurora, Arapahoe County, Colorado, 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paschke, Suzanne S.; Runkel, Robert L.; Walton-Day, Katherine; Kimball, Briant A.; Schaffrath, Keelin R.

2013-01-01

Toll Gate Creek is a perennial stream draining a suburban area in Aurora, Colorado, where selenium concentrations have consistently exceeded the State of Colorado aquatic-life standard for selenium of 4.6 micrograms per liter since the early 2000s. In cooperation with the City of Aurora, Colorado, Utilities Department, a synoptic water-quality study was performed along an 18-kilometer reach of Toll Gate Creek extending from downstream from Quincy Reservoir to the confluence with Sand Creek to develop a detailed understanding of streamflow and concentrations and loads of selenium in Toll Gate Creek. Streamflow and surface-water quality were characterized for summer low-flow conditions (July–August 2007) using four spatially overlapping synoptic-sampling subreaches. Mass-balance methods were applied to the synoptic-sampling and tracer-injection results to estimate streamflow and develop spatial profiles of concentration and load for selenium and other chemical constituents in Toll Gate Creek surface water. Concurrent groundwater sampling determined concentrations of selenium and other chemical constituents in groundwater in areas surrounding the Toll Gate Creek study reaches. Multivariate principal-component analysis was used to group samples and to suggest common sources for dissolved selenium and major ions. Hydrogen and oxygen stable-isotope ratios, groundwater-age interpretations, and chemical analysis of water-soluble paste extractions from core samples are presented, and interpretation of the hydrologic and geochemical data support conclusions regarding geologic sources of selenium and the processes affecting selenium loading in the Toll Gate Creek watershed.

Variability of dissolved organic carbon in precipitation during storms at the Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iavorivska , Lidiia; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Grimm, Jeffrey W.; Miller, Matthew P.; DeWalle, David R.; Davis, Kenneth J.; Kaye, Margot W.

2017-01-01

Organic compounds are removed from the atmosphere and deposited to the earth's surface via precipitation. In this study, we quantified variations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in precipitation during storm events at the Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory, a forested watershed in central Pennsylvania (USA). Precipitation samples were collected consecutively throughout the storm during 13 events, which spanned a range of seasons and synoptic meteorological conditions, including a hurricane. Further, we explored factors that affect the temporal variability by considering relationships of DOC in precipitation with atmospheric and storm characteristics. Concentrations and chemical composition of DOC changed considerably during storms, with the magnitude of change within individual events being comparable or higher than the range of variation in average event composition among events. While some previous studies observed that concentrations of other elements in precipitation typically decrease over the course of individual storm events, results of this study show that DOC concentrations in precipitation are highly variable. During most storm events concentrations decreased over time, possibly as a result of washing out of the below-cloud atmosphere. However, increasing concentrations that were observed in the later stages of some storm events highlight that DOC removal with precipitation is not merely a dilution response. Increases in DOC during events could result from advection of air masses, local emissions during breaks in precipitation, or chemical transformations in the atmosphere that enhance solubility of organic carbon compounds. This work advances understanding of processes occurring during storms that are relevant to studies of atmospheric chemistry, carbon cycling, and ecosystem responses.

Water-quality data for the Ohio River from New Cumberland Dam to Pike Island Dam, West Virginia and Ohio, June-November 1992

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Kimberly F.; Faulkenburg, C.W.; Chambers, D.B.; Waldron, M.C.

1995-01-01

This report contains water-quality data for the Ohio River, collected during the summer and fall of 1992, from river mile 51.1 (3.3 miles upstream from New Cumberland Dam) to river mile 84.0 (0.2 miles upstream from Pike Island Dam). The data were collected to assess the effects of hydropower development on water quality. Water quality was determined by a combination of repeated synoptic field measurements and laboratory analyses. Synoptic measurements were made along a longitudinal transect with 18 mid-channel sampling sites; cross-sectional transects of water quality were measured at 5 of these sites. Water-quality measurements also were made at two sites located on the back-channel (Ohio) side of Browns Island. Water temperature, dissolved oxygen concentration, pH, and specific conductance were measured at each longitudinal-transect and back-channel sampling site. Longitudinal-transect and back-channel stations were sampled at three depths (about 3.3 feet below the surface of the water, middle of the water column, and near the bottom of the river). Cross-sectional transects consisted of three or four detailed vertical pro- files of the same characteristics. Water samples were collected from three depths at the mid-channel vertical profile in each cross-sectional transect and were analyzed for concentrations of phyto- plankton photosynthetic pigments chlorophyll a and chlorophyll b. Estimates of the depth of light penetration (Secchi disk transparency) were made at pigment-sampling locations whenever light and river-surface conditions were appropriate. Synoptic sampling usually was completed in 12 hours or less and was repeated seven times between June 25 and November 6, 1992.

Stratigraphic framework for Pliocene paleoclimate reconstruction: The correlation conundrum

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, H.J.; Robinson, M.M.

2006-01-01

Pre-Holocene paleoclimate reconstructions face a correlation conundrum because complications inherent in the stratigraphic record impede the development of synchronous reconstruction. The Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) paleoenvironmental reconstructions have carefully balanced temporal resolution and paleoclimate proxy data to achieve a useful and reliable product and are the most comprehensive pre-Pleistocene data sets available for analysis of warmer-than-present climate and for climate modeling experiments. This paper documents the stratigraphic framework for the mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction of the North Atlantic and explores the relationship between stratigraphic/temporal resolution and various paleoceanographic estimates of SST. The magnetobiostratigraphic framework for the PRISM North Atlantic region is constructed from planktic foraminifer, calcareous nannofossil and paleomagnetic reversal events recorded in deep-sea cores and calibrated to age. Planktic foraminifer census data from multiple samples within the mid-Pliocene yield multiple SST estimates for each site. Extracting a single SST value at each site from multiple estimates, given the limitations of the material and stratigraphic resolution, is problematic but necessary for climate model experiments. The PRISM reconstruction, unprecedented in its integration of many different types of data at a focused stratigraphic interval, utilizes a time slab approach and is based on warm peak average temperatures. A greater understanding of the dynamics of the climate system and significant advances in models now mandate more precise, globally distributed yet temporally synchronous SST estimates than are available through averaging techniques. Regardless of the precision used to correlate between sequences within the midd-Pliocene, a truly synoptic reconstruction in the temporal sense is unlikely. SST estimates from multiple proxies promise to further refine paleoclimate reconstructions but must consider the complications associated with each method, what each proxy actually records, and how these different proxies compare in time-averaged samples.

Blowing snow detection from ground-based ceilometers: application to East Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gossart, Alexandra; Souverijns, Niels; Gorodetskaya, Irina V.; Lhermitte, Stef; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Schween, Jan H.; Mangold, Alexander; Laffineur, Quentin; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.

2017-12-01

Blowing snow impacts Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance by snow redistribution and sublimation. However, numerical models poorly represent blowing snow processes, while direct observations are limited in space and time. Satellite retrieval of blowing snow is hindered by clouds and only the strongest events are considered. Here, we develop a blowing snow detection (BSD) algorithm for ground-based remote-sensing ceilometers in polar regions and apply it to ceilometers at Neumayer III and Princess Elisabeth (PE) stations, East Antarctica. The algorithm is able to detect (heavy) blowing snow layers reaching 30 m height. Results show that 78 % of the detected events are in agreement with visual observations at Neumayer III station. The BSD algorithm detects heavy blowing snow 36 % of the time at Neumayer (2011-2015) and 13 % at PE station (2010-2016). Blowing snow occurrence peaks during the austral winter and shows around 5 % interannual variability. The BSD algorithm is capable of detecting blowing snow both lifted from the ground and occurring during precipitation, which is an added value since results indicate that 92 % of the blowing snow is during synoptic events, often combined with precipitation. Analysis of atmospheric meteorological variables shows that blowing snow occurrence strongly depends on fresh snow availability in addition to wind speed. This finding challenges the commonly used parametrizations, where the threshold for snow particles to be lifted is a function of wind speed only. Blowing snow occurs predominantly during storms and overcast conditions, shortly after precipitation events, and can reach up to 1300 m a. g. l. in the case of heavy mixed events (precipitation and blowing snow together). These results suggest that synoptic conditions play an important role in generating blowing snow events and that fresh snow availability should be considered in determining the blowing snow onset.

Nearshore circulation on a sea breeze dominated beach during intense wind events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres-Freyermuth, Alec; Puleo, Jack A.; DiCosmo, Nick; Allende-Arandía, Ma. Eugenia; Chardón-Maldonado, Patricia; López, José; Figueroa-Espinoza, Bernardo; de Alegria-Arzaburu, Amaia Ruiz; Figlus, Jens; Roberts Briggs, Tiffany M.; de la Roza, Jacobo; Candela, Julio

2017-12-01

A field experiment was conducted on the northern Yucatan coast from April 1 to April 12, 2014 to investigate the role of intense wind events on coastal circulation from the inner shelf to the swash zone. The study area is characterized by a micro-tidal environment, low-energy wave conditions, and a wide and shallow continental shelf. Furthermore, easterly trade winds, local breezes, and synoptic-scale events, associated with the passage of cold-fronts known as Nortes, are ubiquitous in this region. Currents were measured concurrently at different cross-shore locations during both local and synoptic-scale intense wind events to investigate the influence of different forcing mechanisms (i.e., large-scale currents, winds, tides, and waves) on the nearshore circulation. Field observations revealed that nearshore circulation across the shelf is predominantly alongshore-directed (westward) during intense winds. However, the mechanisms responsible for driving instantaneous spatial and temporal current variability depend on the weather conditions and the across-shelf location. During local strong sea breeze events (W > 10 m s-1 from the NE) occurring during spring tide, westward circulation is controlled by the tides, wind, and waves at the inner-shelf, shallow waters, and inside the surf/swash zone, respectively. The nearshore circulation is relaxed during intense land breeze events (W ≈ 9 m s-1 from the SE) associated with the low atmospheric pressure system that preceded a Norte event. During the Norte event (Wmax≈ 15 m s-1 from the NNW), westward circulation dominated outside the surf zone and was correlated to the Yucatan Current, whereas wave breaking forces eastward currents inside the surf/swash zone. The latter finding implies the existence of large alongshore velocity shear at the offshore edge of the surf zone during the Norte event, which enhances mixing between the surf zone and the inner shelf. These findings suggest that both sea breezes and Nortes play an important role in sediment and pollutant transport along/across the nearshore of the Yucatan shelf.

West Coast atmospheric river climatology in CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M.; Mass, C.; Salathe, E. P.

2015-12-01

In recent years, there has been a flurry of research on how atmospheric river events (ARs) will respond to anthropogenic global warming. This study uses 10 CMIP5 RCP 8.5 climate models to focus on changes in AR frequency, seasonality, and synoptic conditions along the west coast of the United States and is a follow-up to previous work by the same authors (Warner et al. 2015) which investigated expected changes in AR intensity in the same region. There are only very slight changes in annual AR climatology from the end of the last century to the end of this century when considering the most extreme integrated water vapor transport (IVT) events (99th percentile). However, when evaluating by the number of future days exceeding a historical threshold, there are significant increases in extreme IVT events in all months, especially during months when the majority of events take place. The peaks in historical and future frequency occur in similar months given the amount of model variability. Extreme IVT events appear to be occurring slightly earlier in the season, particularly along the northern US coast, and these results are similar to other studies. Spatially, 10-model mean historical composites of IVT reveal canonical AR conditions. At locations farther south, there is less model agreement on the spatial extent and intensity of AR events; whereas farther north, the various models are in agreement. Composites of future events indicate very little spatial change from historical events. The location and orientation of AR events in the historical and future time periods are similar, and the upper-level winds change little over that time period (Warner et al. 2015). This suggests little change in synoptic conditions for approaching ARs. The future-historical difference plots highlight the largest changes expected in the future, namely increases in IVT intensity which are primarily associated with thermodynamic changes related to future integrated water vapor increases due to a warming atmosphere.

Identifying the most hazardous synoptic meteorological conditions for Winter UK PM10 exceedences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webber, Chris; Dacre, Helen; Collins, Bill; Masato, Giacomo

2016-04-01

Summary We investigate the relationship between synoptic scale meteorological variability and local scale pollution concentrations within the UK. Synoptic conditions representative of atmospheric blocking highlighted significant increases in UK PM10 concentration ([PM10]), with the probability of exceeding harmful [PM10] limits also increased. Once relationships had been diagnosed, The Met Office Unified Model (UM) was used to replicate these relationships, using idealised source regions of PM10. This helped to determine the PM10 source regions most influential throughout UK PM10 exceedance events and to test whether the model was capable of capturing the relationships between UK PM10 and atmospheric blocking. Finally, a time slice simulation for 2050-2060 helped to answer the question whether PM10 exceedance events are more likely to occur within a changing climate. Introduction Atmospheric blocking events are well understood to lead to conditions, conducive to pollution events within the UK. Literature shows that synoptic conditions with the ability to deflect the Northwest Atlantic storm track from the UK, often lead to the highest UK pollution concentrations. Rossby wave breaking (RWB) has been identified as a mechanism, which results in atmospheric blocking and its relationship with UK [PM10] is explored using metrics designed in Masato, et al., 2013. Climate simulations facilitated by the Met Office UM, enable these relationships between RWB and PM10 to be found within the model. Subsequently the frequency of events that lead to hazardous PM10 concentrations ([PM10]) in a future climate, can be determined, within a climate simulation. An understanding of the impact, meteorology has on UK [PM10] within a changing climate, will help inform policy makers, regarding the importance of limiting PM10 emissions, ensuring safe air quality in the future. Methodology and Results Three Blocking metrics were used to subset RWB into four categories. These RWB categories were all shown to increase UK [PM10] and to increase the probability of exceeding a UK [PM10] threshold, when they occurred within constrained regions. Further analysis highlighted that Omega Block events lead to the greatest probability of exceeding hazardous UK [PM10] limits. These events facilitated the advection of European PM10, while also providing stagnant conditions over the UK, facilitating PM10 accumulation. The Met Office UM was used and nudged to ERA-Interim Reanalysis wind and temperature fields, to replicate the relationships found using observed UK [PM10]. Inert tracers were implemented into the model to replicate UK PM10 source regions throughout Europe. The modelled tracers were seen to correlate well with observed [PM10] and Figure 1 highlights the correlations between a RWB metric and observed (a) and modelled (b) [PM10]. A further free running model simulation highlighted the deficiency of the Met Office UM in capturing RWB frequency, with a reduction over the Northwest Atlantic/ European region. A final time slice simulation was undertaken for the period 2050-2060, using Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, which attempted to determine the change in frequency of UK PM10 exceedance events, due to changing meteorology, in a future climate. Conclusions RWB has been shown to increase UK [PM10] and to lead to greater probabilities of exceeding a harmful [PM10] threshold. Omega block events have been determined the most hazardous RWB subset and this is due to a combination of European advection and UK stagnation. Simulations within the Met Office UM were undertaken and the relationships seen between observed UK [PM10] and RWB were replicated within the model, using inert tracers. Finally, time slice simulations were undertaken, determining the change in frequency of UK [PM10] exceedance events within a changing climate. References Masato, G., Hoskins, B. J., Woolings, T., 2013; Wave-breaking Characteristics of Northern Hemisphere Winter Blocking: A Two-Dimensional Approach. J. Climate, 26, 4535-4549.

The Impact of Sea Surface Temperature Front on Stratus-Sea Fog over the Yellow and East China Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, S.; Li, M.; Liu, F.

2013-12-01

A stratus-sea fog event occurred on 3 June 2011 over the Yellow and East China Seas (as shown in figure) is investigated observationally and numerically. Emphasis is put on the influences of the sea surface temperature front (SSTF) and of the synoptic circulations on the transition of stratus to sea fog. The southerly winds from a synoptic high pressure transport water vapor from the East China Sea to the Yellow Sea, while the subsidence induced by the high contributes to the formation of the temperature inversion on the top of the stratus or stratocumulus that appears mainly over the warm flank of a sea surface temperature front in the East China Sea. Forced by the SSTF, there is a secondary cell within the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), with a sinking branch on the cold flank and a rising one on the warm flank of the SSTF. This sinking branch, in phase with the synoptic subsidence, forces the stratus or stratocumulus to lower in the elevation getting close to the sea surface as these clouds move northward driven by the southerly winds. The cloud droplets can either reach to the sea surface directly or evaporate into water vapor that may condense again when coming close to the cold sea surface to form fog. In this later case, the stratus and fog may separate. The cooling effect of cold sea surface counteracts the adiabatic heating induced by the subsidence and thus helps the transition of stratus to sea fog in the southern Yellow Sea. By smoothing the SSTF in the numerical experiment, the secondary cell weakens and the sea fog patches shrink obviously over the cold flank of the SSTF though the synoptic subsidence and moist advection still exist. A conceptual model is suggested for the transition of stratus to sea fog in the Yellow and East China Seas, which is helpful for the forecast of sea fog over these areas. The satellite visible image of the stratus-fog event. The fog appears in the Yellow Sea and the stratocumulus in the East China Sea.

Do Solar Coronal Holes Affect the Properties of Solar Energetic Particle Events?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahler, S. W.; Arge, C. N.; Akiyama, S.; Gopalswamy, N.

2013-01-01

The intensities and timescales of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events at 1 AU may depend not only on the characteristics of shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), but also on large-scale coronal and interplanetary structures. It has long been suspected that the presence of coronal holes (CHs) near the CMEs or near the 1-AU magnetic footpoints may be an important factor in SEP events. We used a group of 41 E (is) approx. 20 MeV SEP events with origins near the solar central meridian to search for such effects. First we investigated whether the presence of a CH directly between the sources of the CME and of the magnetic connection at 1 AU is an important factor. Then we searched for variations of the SEP events among different solar wind (SW) stream types: slow, fast, and transient. Finally, we considered the separations between CME sources and CH footpoint connections from 1 AU determined from four-day forecast maps based on Mount Wilson Observatory and the National Solar Observatory synoptic magnetic-field maps and the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model of SW propagation. The observed in-situ magnetic-field polarities and SW speeds at SEP event onsets tested the forecast accuracies employed to select the best SEP/CH connection events for that analysis. Within our limited sample and the three analytical treatments, we found no statistical evidence for an effect of CHs on SEP event peak intensities, onset times, or rise times. The only exception is a possible enhancement of SEP peak intensities in magnetic clouds.

Relationship Between Precipitation Chemistry and Meteorological Parameters at a Urban Site in the North of Queretaro State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García Martínez, R.; Hernández, G.; Solis, S.; Torres, M. D.; Padilla, H.; Báez, A.

2010-12-01

A total of 50 wet precipitation samples were collected per event at the Juriquilla site from mid-May 2009 to the end of May 2010. The Juriquilla sampling site was located on the roof of the Geoscience Building, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, at the Juriquilla Campus in the city of Querétaro located at 20°41'58"N and 100°27'28" W, at 1920 meters above sea level (masl). Sampling was done in passive collectors that consisted of a high density polyethylene funnel connected to a 2-liter polyethylene bottle, supported by a rod 1.5 m above the roof. One of the collectors was used to take samples for trace metals. The analysis was done in soluble and insoluble fractions. Al, Ag, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, V and Zn were analyzed by atomic absorption spectroscopy with a graphite furnace accessory. The other collector was used to measure pH and major ions (SO4-2, Cl-, NO3-, Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+ and NH4+) in the soluble fractions, because it was assumed that these ions are completely soluble in rainwater. The major ions SO4-2, Cl-, and NO3-, were analyzed by a Varian Model 2010 ion chromatograph; Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+ and K+ were determined by flame atomic absorption spectrometry and NH4+ by a UV spectrophotometer. In this study, synoptic maps were used to analyze the transport of air masses before rainfall, enabling back trajectories to be used to estimate the source region of pollutants. To understand the variety of synoptic weather conditions, data were associated with the corresponding air mass back trajectories calculated by the NOAA HYSPLIT model (Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model). Back trajectory models have very simple advection schemes to calculate the previous position of an air parcel by using estimated wind speed and direction for the time period prior to arrival at the selected site. In this study, the origin of the air mass for an event was evaluated by a three-day back-trajectory before arrival to Queretaro. Mass back trajectories were calculated for 1000 and 2000 meters above ground level (MAGL), because winds at these levels should be a good approximation to the mean transport wind, since this pressure level frequently lies near the center of the transport layer. Finally, trajectories were classified by eight different directions according to the directions of the air masses before rainfall.

Automated transient identification in the Dark Energy Survey

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldstein, D. A.

2015-08-20

We describe an algorithm for identifying point-source transients and moving objects on reference-subtracted optical images containing artifacts of processing and instrumentation. The algorithm makes use of the supervised machine learning technique known as Random Forest. We present results from its use in the Dark Energy Survey Supernova program (DES-SN), where it was trained using a sample of 898,963 signal and background events generated by the transient detection pipeline. After reprocessing the data collected during the first DES-SN observing season (2013 September through 2014 February) using the algorithm, the number of transient candidates eligible for human scanning decreased by a factormore » of 13.4, while only 1.0 percent of the artificial Type Ia supernovae (SNe) injected into search images to monitor survey efficiency were lost, most of which were very faint events. Here we characterize the algorithm's performance in detail, and we discuss how it can inform pipeline design decisions for future time-domain imaging surveys, such as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope and the Zwicky Transient Facility.« less

Automated transient identification in the Dark Energy Survey

DOE PAGES

Goldstein, D. A.; D'Andrea, C. B.; Fischer, J. A.; ...

2015-09-01

We describe an algorithm for identifying point-source transients and moving objects on reference-subtracted optical images containing artifacts of processing and instrumentation. The algorithm makes use of the supervised machine learning technique known as Random Forest. We present results from its use in the Dark Energy Survey Supernova program (DES-SN), where it was trained using a sample of 898,963 signal and background events generated by the transient detection pipeline. After reprocessing the data collected during the first DES-SN observing season (2013 September through 2014 February) using the algorithm, the number of transient candidates eligible for human scanning decreased by a factormore » of 13.4, while only 1.0% of the artificial Type Ia supernovae (SNe) injected into search images to monitor survey efficiency were lost, most of which were very faint events. Furthermore, we characterize the algorithm's performance in detail, and we discuss how it can inform pipeline design decisions for future time-domain imaging surveys, such as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope and the Zwicky Transient Facility.« less

Evaluation of NCMRWF unified model vertical cloud structure with CloudSat over the Indian summer monsoon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayakumar, A.; Mamgain, Ashu; Jisesh, A. S.; Mohandas, Saji; Rakhi, R.; Rajagopal, E. N.

2016-05-01

Representation of rainfall distribution and monsoon circulation in the high resolution versions of NCMRWF Unified model (NCUM-REG) for the short-range forecasting of extreme rainfall event is vastly dependent on the key factors such as vertical cloud distribution, convection and convection/cloud relationship in the model. Hence it is highly relevant to evaluate the vertical structure of cloud and precipitation of the model over the monsoon environment. In this regard, we utilized the synergy of the capabilities of CloudSat data for long observational period, by conditioning it for the synoptic situation of the model simulation period. Simulations were run at 4-km grid length with the convective parameterization effectively switched off and on. Since the sample of CloudSat overpasses through the monsoon domain is small, the aforementioned methodology may qualitatively evaluate the vertical cloud structure for the model simulation period. It is envisaged that the present study will open up the possibility of further improvement in the high resolution version of NCUM in the tropics for the Indian summer monsoon associated rainfall events.

The structure and energetics of midlatitude disturbances accompanying cold-air outbreaks over East Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, N.-C.; Lau, K.-M.

1984-01-01

The evolution of extratropical transient waves as they propagate eastward from the Eurasian land mass toward the Pacific during selected cold surge events in the winter Monsoon Experiment (MONEX) is studied. The outstanding cold surge episodes during MONEX are first identified, and the salient synoptic features related to these events are described using composite streamline charts. The structure of rapidly varying disturbances accompanying the cold surges and the associated energetics are examined, and the behavior of those fluctuations over relatively longer time scales is addressed.

Meteorological conditions for the triggering of landslides in Asturias (NW Spain). A preliminary analysis of synoptic patterns.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valenzuela, Pablo; Iglesias, Miguel; José Domínguez-Cuesta, María; Mora García, Manuel Antonio

2017-04-01

Asturias is one of the most landslide prone areas in the NW of Spain, where those phenomena cause every year large economic loses and sometimes personal injuries or fatalities. Most of landslides take place during intense rainfall events, which point out precipitation as the main triggering factor. Regional climate is characterized by average annual precipitation and temperature of 960 mm and 13.3°C respectively. Rainfall distribution throughout the year allows the definition of a humid period between October and May, characterized by the succession of frontal systems, and a considerable dry period between June and September, when heavy short storm episodes are usual. BAPA landslide database (http://geol.uniovi.es/BAPA) gathers more than 500 landslide records located with high temporal reliability for eight hydrological years between October 2008 and September 2016. Eight periods with a high concentration of landslides and significant precipitation records have been selected for the study within this time span. Meteorological conditions which took place during each period have been characterized by using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the EEUU (NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis 1) through the free software Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS). Seven parameters have been used to characterize each synoptic situation: (i) 500 hPa temperature, (ii) 500 hPa geopotential height, (iii) 850 hPa temperature, (iv) 850 hPa geopotential height, (v) 925hPa wind, (vi) specific humidity, and (vii) sea level pressure. The final goal is to establish a conceptual model of the most frequent synoptic meteorological patterns which generate rainfall-triggered landslide events in Asturias during the humid and dry periods.

Modeling the convective transport of pollutants from eastern Colorado, USA into Rocky Mountain National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pina, A.; Schumacher, R. S.; Denning, S.

2015-12-01

Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) is a Class I Airshed designated under the Clean Air Act. Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition in the Park has been a known problem since weekly measurements of wet deposition of inorganic N began in the 1980s by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP). The addition of N from urban and agriculture emissions along the Colorado Front Range to montane ecosystems degrades air quality/visibility, water quality, and soil pH levels. Based on NADP data during summers 1994-2014, wet N deposition at Beaver Meadows in RMNP exhibited a bimodal gamma distribution. In this study, we identified meteorological transport mechanisms for 3 high wet-N deposition events (all events were within the secondary peak of the gamma distribution) using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The NARR was used to identify synoptic-scale influences on the transport; the WRF model was used to analyze the convective transport of pollutants from a concentrated animal feeding operation near Greeley, Colorado, USA. The WRF simulation included a passive tracer from the feeding operation and a convection-permitting horizontal spacing of 4/3 km. The three cases suggest (a) synoptic-scale moisture and flow patterns are important for priming summer transport events and (b) convection plays a vital role in the transport of Front Range pollutants into RMNP.

Contribution of large-scale midlatitude disturbances to hourly precipitation extremes in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbero, Renaud; Abatzoglou, John T.; Fowler, Hayley J.

2018-02-01

Midlatitude synoptic weather regimes account for a substantial portion of annual precipitation accumulation as well as multi-day precipitation extremes across parts of the United States (US). However, little attention has been devoted to understanding how synoptic-scale patterns contribute to hourly precipitation extremes. A majority of 1-h annual maximum precipitation (AMP) across the western US were found to be linked to two coherent midlatitude synoptic patterns: disturbances propagating along the jet stream, and cutoff upper-level lows. The influence of these two patterns on 1-h AMP varies geographically. Over 95% of 1-h AMP along the western coastal US were coincident with progressive midlatitude waves embedded within the jet stream, while over 30% of 1-h AMP across the interior western US were coincident with cutoff lows. Between 30-60% of 1-h AMP were coincident with the jet stream across the Ohio River Valley and southeastern US, whereas a a majority of 1-h AMP over the rest of central and eastern US were not found to be associated with either midlatitude synoptic features. Composite analyses for 1-h AMP days coincident to cutoff lows and jet stream show that an anomalous moisture flux and upper-level dynamics are responsible for initiating instability and setting up an environment conducive to 1-h AMP events. While hourly precipitation extremes are generally thought to be purely convective in nature, this study shows that large-scale dynamics and baroclinic disturbances may also contribute to precipitation extremes on sub-daily timescales.

Regime Behavior in Paleo-Reconstructed Streamflow: Attributions to Atmospheric Dynamics, Synoptic Circulation and Large-Scale Climate Teleconnection Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

2017-12-01

Studies have shown that streamflow behavior and dynamics have a significant link with climate and climate variability. Patterns of persistent regime behavior from extended streamflow records in many watersheds justify investigating large-scale climate mechanisms as potential drivers of hydrologic regime behavior and streamflow variability. Understanding such streamflow-climate relationships is crucial to forecasting/simulation systems and the planning and management of water resources. In this study, hidden Markov models are used with reconstructed streamflow to detect regime-like behaviors - the hidden states - and state transition phenomena. Individual extreme events and their spatial variability across the basin are then verified with the identified states. Wavelet analysis is performed to examine the signals over time in the streamflow records. Joint analyses of the climatic data in the 20th century and the identified states are undertaken to better understand the hydroclimatic connections within the basin as well as important teleconnections that influence water supply. Compositing techniques are used to identify atmospheric circulation patterns associated with identified states of streamflow. The grouping of such synoptic patterns and their frequency are then examined. Sliding time-window correlation analysis and cross-wavelet spectral analysis are performed to establish the synchronicity of basin flows to the identified synoptic and teleconnection patterns. The Missouri River Basin (MRB) is examined in this study, both as a means of better understanding the synoptic climate controls in this important watershed and as a case study for the techniques developed here. Initial wavelet analyses of reconstructed streamflow at major gauges in the MRB show multidecadal cycles in regime behavior.

Synoptic moisture pathways associated with mean and extreme precipitation over Canada for winter and spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, X.; Gan, T. Y. Y.; Chen, Y. D.

2017-12-01

Dominant synoptic moisture pathway patterns of vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) in winter and spring over Canada West and East were identified using the self-organizing map method. Large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) were related to the variability in seasonal precipitation totals and occurrences of precipitation extremes. Changes in both occurrences of LSMPs and seasonal precipitation occurred under those LSMPs were evaluated to attribute observed changes in seasonal precipitation totals and occurrences of precipitation extremes. Effects of large-scale climate anomalies on occurrences of LSMPs were also examined. Results show that synoptic moisture pathways and LSMPs exhibit the propagation of jet streams as the location and direction of ridges and troughs, and the strength and center of pressure lows and highs varied considerably between LSMPs. Significant decreases in occurrences of synoptic moisture pathway patterns that are favorable with positive precipitation anomalies and more precipitation extremes in winter over Canada West resulted in decreases in seasonal precipitation and occurrences of precipitation extremes. LSMPs resulting in a hot and dry climate and less (more) frequent precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairies in winter and northwestern Canada in spring are more likely to occur in years with a negative phase of PNA. Occurrences of LSMPs for a wet climate and frequent occurrences of extreme precipitation events over southeastern Canada are associated with a positive phase of NAO. In El Niño years or negative PDO years, LSMPs associated with a dry climate and less frequent precipitation extremes over western Canada tend to occur.

A new perspective on the regional hydrologic cycle over North and South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weng, Shu-Ping

The GEOS-1 vertically-integrated 3-hr moisture flux reanalyses and hourly-gridded United States station precipitation plus a satellite-based, 6-hr global precipitation estimate were employed to investigate the impacts of nocturnal low-level jets (LLJs) on the regional hydrological cycle over the central United States (Part I) and the subtropical plains of South America (Part II). Research stressed the influences of upper-level synoptic-scale waves (i.e., synoptic-scale forcings) upon the regional hydrologic processes, which were explored by the impacts associated with the occurrence of LLJ. Besides the conventional budget analysis, the adopted `synoptic-forcing approach' was proven illustrative in describing these impacts through the down-scaling process of LLJs. In Part 1, the major findings include: (1)the seasonal-averaged hydrological cycle over the Great Plains is strongly affected by the occurrence of GPLLJ, (2)the synoptic-scale forcing provided by the upper-level propagating jet (ULJ) streams is essential in generating the large-scale precipitation after the GPLLJ forms from the diurnal boundary layer process, (3)without the dynamic coupling between the ULJ and LLJ, the impact of LLJ on the hydrological cycle is demonstrated to be less important, and (4)the importance of synoptic-scale forcings in preconditioning the setting of wet/dry seasons in the interannual variability of rainfall anomaly is further illustrated by examining the changes of intensity as well as the occurrence frequency between the different types of LLJ. In Part II of this study, it was found that the occurrence of Andean LLJ represents a transient episode that detours the climatic rainfall activity along the South Atlantic Convergent Zone (SACZ) to the subtropical plains (Brazilian Nordeste) in its southwestern (northeastern) flank. The appearance of a seesaw pattern in the rainfall and flux convergence anomalies along the southeastern portion of South America, which is spatially in quadrature with the seasonal mean circulation, reflects the synoptic-scale forcing generated by the upper-level propagating transient-scale waves. In this regard, the function of the Andean LLJ in providing a scale-interaction mechanism that links the synoptic-scale setting with the localized rainfall event is the same as the GPLLJ. Due to the unique geographic background such as the narrow east-west landmass extension and the relative orientation between the Andean LLJ and the ULJ, however, the enhanced rainfall activity over the subtropical plains in response to the perturbed flux convergence is smaller than the case in the GPLLJ.

A Synoptic Climatology of Combined Severe/Weather/Flash Flood Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pallozzi, Kyle J.

Classical forms of severe weather such as tornadoes, damaging convective wind gusts, and large hail, as well as flash flooding events, all have potentially large societal impacts. This impact is further magnified when these hazards occur simultaneously in time and space. A major challenge for operational forecasters is how to accurately predict the occurrence of combined storm hazards, and how to communicate the associated multiple threat hazards to the public. A seven-year climatology (2009-2015) of combined severe weather/flash flooding (SVR/FF) events across the contiguous United States was developed in attempt to study the combined SVR/FF event hazards further. A total of 211 total cases were identified and sub-divided into seven subcategories based on their convective morphology and meteorological characteristics. Heatmaps of event report frequency were created to extract spatial, seasonal and interannual patterns in SVR/FF event activity. Diurnal trends were examined from time series plots of tornado, hail, wind and flash flood/flood reports. Event-centered composites of environmental variables were created for each subcategory from 13 km RUC/RAP analyses. Representative cases studies were conducted for each subcategory. A "ring of fire" with the highest levels of SVR/FF event activity was noted across the central United States. SVR/FF events were least common in the Southeast, High Plains, and Northern Plains. Enhanced SVR/FF activity reflected contributions from synoptic events during the cool and shoulder seasons over the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas and Tennessee Valleys, and MCS activity during the warm season over the lower Great Plains, and the Upper Mississippi, Missouri and Ohio River Valleys. Results from the composite analyses indicated that relatively high values of CAPE, surface-500 hPa shear and precipitable water were observed for all subcategories. Case studies show that many high-end SVR/FF events featured slow-moving, or quasi-stationary fronts/outflow boundaries, a moist troposphere and front-paralleling 850-300 hPa mean winds. In this environment, individual convective cells can be advected downstream along the initiating boundary, resulting in flood-producing training echoes. A relatively moist troposphere leads to efficient precipitation production, limits cold-pool formation/off-boundary propagation, and further increases the likelihood of flash flooding.

Dispersion in deep polar firn driven by synoptic-scale surface pressure variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buizert, Christo; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.

2016-09-01

Commonly, three mechanisms of firn air transport are distinguished: molecular diffusion, advection, and near-surface convective mixing. Here we identify and describe a fourth mechanism, namely dispersion driven by synoptic-scale surface pressure variability (or barometric pumping). We use published gas chromatography experiments on firn samples to derive the along-flow dispersivity of firn, and combine this dispersivity with a dynamical air pressure propagation model forced by surface air pressure time series to estimate the magnitude of dispersive mixing in the firn. We show that dispersion dominates mixing within the firn lock-in zone. Trace gas concentrations measured in firn air samples from various polar sites confirm that dispersive mixing occurs. Including dispersive mixing in a firn air transport model suggests that our theoretical estimates have the correct order of magnitude, yet may overestimate the true dispersion. We further show that strong barometric pumping, such as at the Law Dome site, may reduce the gravitational enrichment of δ15N-N2 and other tracers below gravitational equilibrium, questioning the traditional definition of the lock-in depth as the depth where δ15N enrichment ceases. Last, we propose that 86Kr excess may act as a proxy for past synoptic activity (or paleo-storminess) at the site.

Physical and dynamical studies of meteors. Meteor-fragmentation and stream-distribution studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sekanina, Z.; Southworth, R. B.

1975-01-01

Population parameters of 275 streams including 20 additional streams in the synoptic-year sample were found by a computer technique. Some 16 percent of the sample is in these streams. Four meteor streams that have close orbital resemblance to Adonis cannot be positively identified as meteors ejected by Adonis within the last 12000 years. Ceplecha's discrete levels of meteor height are not evident in radar meteors. The spread of meteoroid fragments along their common trajectory was computed for most of the observed radar meteors. There is an unexpected relationship between spread and velocity that perhaps conceals relationships between fragmentation and orbits; a theoretical treatment will be necessary to resolve these relationships. Revised unbiased statistics of synoptic-year orbits are presented, together with parallel statistics for the 1961 to 1965 radar meteor orbits.

Water-quality data from two agricultural drainage basins in northwestern Indiana and northeastern Illinois: I. Lagrangian and synoptic data, 1999-2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Antweiler, Ronald C.; Smith, Richard L.; Voytek, Mary A.; Bohlke, John Karl; Richards, Kevin D.

2005-01-01

Methods of data collection and results of analyses are presented for Lagrangian and synoptic water-quality data collected from two agricultural drainages, the Iroquois River in northwestern Indiana and Sugar Creek in northwestern Indiana and northeastern Illinois. During six separate sampling trips, in April, June and September 1999, May 2000, September 2001 and April 2002, 152 discrete water samples were collected to characterize the water chemistry over the course of 2 to 4 days on each of these drainages. Data were collected for nutrients, major inorganic constituents, dissolved organic carbon, trace elements, dissolved gases, total bacterial cell counts, chlorophyll-a concentrations, and suspended sediment concentrations. In addition, field measurements of streamflow, pH, specific conductance, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen concentration were made during all trips except April 1999.

Synoptic characteristics of dust over the southwest of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katiraie-Boroujerdy, P.; Ghahri, F.; Ranjbar Saadatabadi, A.

2012-12-01

Iran is frequently affected by dust events because it is located in arid and semiarid belt of the world. As Khozestan province is in the vicinity of large deserts and also due to especial atmospheric conditions the frequency of dust in this area is increased in the recent years. Therefore it has the destructive affect on the healthcare, economy, social and etc. The study is based on the, sea level, 850 mb and 500 mb weather charts, surface wind field and observations weather data during the period of 1968-2008. By numerical simulation with WRF modeling it has tried to high light provide an answer to how this event produced and reached to Ahwaz. It has been shown in this 40 years, dust events by high strength and frequency occur in July in Ahwaz. Synoptic patterns revealed that for making sever dust event Persian Gulf thermal trough extends to the north west of Iraq and European ridge extends over the Black sea and large part of the Turkey by passing waves of middle level Mediterranean trough from northwest of Iraq and east of Syria. Numerical simulation shows strong surface flow over source regions in northwest of Iraq and east of Syria, creation westerly low level jet in low-lying areas and the increase in friction velocity in the source regions. In the deserts of Iraq and north east of Syria increase in friction velocity to its highest value (approx 0.6 m/s) causes reduction in visibility and by decrease to lowest value (approx 0.4 m/s) visibility reaches up to 600 meters in Ahwaz.

The flood event that affected Badajoz in November 1997

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorente, P.; Hernández, E.; Queralt, S.; Ribera, P.

2008-04-01

The flooding episode of November 1997 in Badajoz was one of the most dramatic catastrophes in Spain: as a result, there were 21 fatalities and huge financial damages. The main purpose of this work is to assess the prevailing synoptic conditions as well as detailing the mesoscale effects by means of moisture sources and dynamic and thermodynamic instability analysis involved in the November 1997 Spanish severe weather episode. In order to achieve the above, this flood event is described in terms of moisture content evolution by means of individual particle simulation along 3-day back-trajectories. A Lagrangian model is applied in order to characterize the atmospheric particles involved in the focused case (localization, height and specific humidity) which give rise to sudden precipitation stream. Geopotential height and temperature fields were used to describe the synoptic situation. Thermodynamic indices, such as CAPE, SWEAT and KI, and dynamic parameters like potential vorticity anomaly at 330 K isentropic surface and Q vector divergence were also calculated in order to complete the analysis and to give a thorough weather frame taking into account the atmospheric instability. The results of this work suggest this flood event was due mainly to strong dynamic instability along with large amounts of moisture advected by a trough, while the thermodynamic instability played a secondary role. Finally, a new methodology based on a technique proposed by Tremblay (2005) has been developed in order to separate the precipitation into stratiform and convective components. It is evident that the event was associated with a predominant convective regime.

Study of Extreme Weather Hazards Using GRACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Shum, C. K.; Shang, K.; Guo, J.; Schwartz, F. W.; Akyılmaz, O.; Feng, W.; Forootan, E.; LIU, G.; Zhong, M.

2017-12-01

Extreme weather events significantly affect humans and economics in the region. Synoptic and timely observations of these abrupt meteoro-hydrological hazards would benefit disaster management and improve storm forecasting. Contemporary processing of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) twin-satellite data at monthly sampling would miss or under-sample abrupt events such as large ice storms with durations much shorter than a month. Here, we employ the energy balance approach processing GRACE Level 1 data, which is flexible to allow sub-monthly solutions at daily sampling covering the genesis and evolution of large winter storms. We studied the 2008 Southeast China snow and ice storm, which lasted from mid-January to mid-February, and affected 21 out of China's 34 provinces with heavy snows, ice and freezing rains, caused extensive damage and transportation disruption, displaced nearly 1.7 million people, and claimed 129 lives. We also investigated the devastating North America blizzard which occurred during late January through mid-February 2010. The massive accumulations of snow and ice in both storms slightly changed the gravity field of the Earth, and were sensitive to the GRACE satellite measurements, manifested as transient terrestrial water storage (TWS) change. We compared our solutions with other available high temporal frequency GRACE solutions. The GRACE observed total storage change for both storms are in good agreement with in situ precipitation measurements, and with GRACE observations clearly show the complex genesis, decline, strengthening and melting phases depicting the detailed evolution of these example large snow storms.

Machine-learning-based Brokers for Real-time Classification of the LSST Alert Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narayan, Gautham; Zaidi, Tayeb; Soraisam, Monika D.; Wang, Zhe; Lochner, Michelle; Matheson, Thomas; Saha, Abhijit; Yang, Shuo; Zhao, Zhenge; Kececioglu, John; Scheidegger, Carlos; Snodgrass, Richard T.; Axelrod, Tim; Jenness, Tim; Maier, Robert S.; Ridgway, Stephen T.; Seaman, Robert L.; Evans, Eric Michael; Singh, Navdeep; Taylor, Clark; Toeniskoetter, Jackson; Welch, Eric; Zhu, Songzhe; The ANTARES Collaboration

2018-05-01

The unprecedented volume and rate of transient events that will be discovered by the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) demand that the astronomical community update its follow-up paradigm. Alert-brokers—automated software system to sift through, characterize, annotate, and prioritize events for follow-up—will be critical tools for managing alert streams in the LSST era. The Arizona-NOAO Temporal Analysis and Response to Events System (ANTARES) is one such broker. In this work, we develop a machine learning pipeline to characterize and classify variable and transient sources only using the available multiband optical photometry. We describe three illustrative stages of the pipeline, serving the three goals of early, intermediate, and retrospective classification of alerts. The first takes the form of variable versus transient categorization, the second a multiclass typing of the combined variable and transient data set, and the third a purity-driven subtyping of a transient class. Although several similar algorithms have proven themselves in simulations, we validate their performance on real observations for the first time. We quantitatively evaluate our pipeline on sparse, unevenly sampled, heteroskedastic data from various existing observational campaigns, and demonstrate very competitive classification performance. We describe our progress toward adapting the pipeline developed in this work into a real-time broker working on live alert streams from time-domain surveys.

A Regional-Scale Evaluation on Environmental Stability Conditions for Convective Rain under Climate Change from Super-High-Resolution GCM Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takemi, T.; Nomura, S.; Oku, Y.; Ishikawa, H.

2011-12-01

Understanding and forecasting of convective rain due to intense thunderstorms, which develop under conditions both with and without significant synoptic-scale and/or mesoscale forcings, are critical in dealing with disaster prevention/mitigation and developing urban planning appropriate for disaster management. Thunderstorms rapidly develop even during the daytimes of fair weather conditions without any external forcings, and sometimes become strong enough to induce local-scale meteorological disasters such as torrential rain, flush flooding, high winds, and tornadoes/gusts. With the growing interests in climate change, future changes in the behavior of such convectively generated extreme events have gained scientific and societal interests. This study conducted the regional-scale evaluations on the environmental stability conditions for convective rain that develops under synoptically undisturbed, summertime conditions by using the outputs of super-high-resolution AGCM simulations, at a 20-km resolution, for the present, the near-future, and the future climates under global warming with IPCC A1B emission scenario. The GCM, MRI-AGCM3.2S, was developed by Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency under the KAKUSHIN program funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan. The climate simulation outputs that were used in this study corresponded to three 25-year periods: 1980-2004 for the present climate; 2020-2044 for the near-future climate; and 2075-2099 for the future climate. The Kanto Plain that includes the Tokyo metropolitan area was chosen as the study area, since the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the largest metropolises in the world and is vulnerable to extreme weather events. Therefore, one of the purposes of this study was to examine how regional-scale evaluations are performed from the super-high-resolution GCM outputs. After verifying the usefulness of the GCM present-climate outputs with observations and operational mesoscale analyses, we examined, as another purpose of this study, the future changes in the environmental stability for convective rain. To diagnose the environmental conditions, some of the commonly used stability parameters and indices were examined. In the future climates, temperature lapse rate decreased in the lower troposphere, while water vapor mixing ratio increased throughout the deep troposphere. The changes in the temperature and moisture profiles resulted in the increase in both precipitable water vapor and convective available potential energy. These projected changes will be enhanced with the future period. Furthermore, the statistical analyses for the differences of the stability parameters between no-rain and rain days under the synoptically undisturbed condition in each simulated climate period indicated that the environmental conditions in terms of the stability parameters that distinguish no-rain and rain events are basically unchanged between the present and the future climates. This result suggests that the environmental characteristics favorable for afternoon rain events in the synoptically undisturbed environments will not change under global warming.

Effect of noise in principal component analysis with an application to ozone pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsakiri, Katerina G.

This thesis analyzes the effect of independent noise in principal components of k normally distributed random variables defined by a covariance matrix. We prove that the principal components as well as the canonical variate pairs determined from joint distribution of original sample affected by noise can be essentially different in comparison with those determined from the original sample. However when the differences between the eigenvalues of the original covariance matrix are sufficiently large compared to the level of the noise, the effect of noise in principal components and canonical variate pairs proved to be negligible. The theoretical results are supported by simulation study and examples. Moreover, we compare our results about the eigenvalues and eigenvectors in the two dimensional case with other models examined before. This theory can be applied in any field for the decomposition of the components in multivariate analysis. One application is the detection and prediction of the main atmospheric factor of ozone concentrations on the example of Albany, New York. Using daily ozone, solar radiation, temperature, wind speed and precipitation data, we determine the main atmospheric factor for the explanation and prediction of ozone concentrations. A methodology is described for the decomposition of the time series of ozone and other atmospheric variables into the global term component which describes the long term trend and the seasonal variations, and the synoptic scale component which describes the short term variations. By using the Canonical Correlation Analysis, we show that solar radiation is the only main factor between the atmospheric variables considered here for the explanation and prediction of the global and synoptic scale component of ozone. The global term components are modeled by a linear regression model, while the synoptic scale components by a vector autoregressive model and the Kalman filter. The coefficient of determination, R2, for the prediction of the synoptic scale ozone component was found to be the highest when we consider the synoptic scale component of the time series for solar radiation and temperature. KEY WORDS: multivariate analysis; principal component; canonical variate pairs; eigenvalue; eigenvector; ozone; solar radiation; spectral decomposition; Kalman filter; time series prediction

Synoptic controls on precipitation pathways and snow delivery to high-accumulation ice core sites in the Ross Sea region, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinclair, K. E.; Bertler, N. A. N.; Trompetter, W. J.

2010-11-01

Dominant storm tracks to two ice core sites on the western margin of the Ross Sea, Antarctica (Skinner Saddle (SKS) and Evans Piedmont Glacier), are investigated to establish key synoptic controls on snow accumulation. This is critical in terms of understanding the seasonality, source regions, and transport pathways of precipitation delivered to these sites. In situ snow depth and meteorological observations are used to identify major accumulation events in 2007-2008, which differ considerably between sites in terms of their magnitude and seasonal distribution. While snowfall at Evans Piedmont Glacier occurs almost exclusively during summer and spring, Skinner Saddle receives precipitation year round with a lull during the months of April and May. Cluster analysis of daily back trajectories reveals that the highest-accumulation days at both sites result from fast-moving air masses, associated with synoptic-scale low-pressure systems. There is evidence that short-duration pulses of snowfall at SKS also originate from mesocyclone development over the Ross Ice Shelf and local moisture sources. Changes in the frequency and seasonal distribution of these mechanisms of precipitation delivery will have a marked impact on annual accumulation over time and will therefore need careful consideration during the interpretation of stable isotope and geochemical records from these ice cores.

The sensitivity of primary productivity to intra-seasonal mixed layer variability in the sub-Antarctic Zone of the Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joubert, W. R.; Swart, S.; Tagliabue, A.; Thomalla, S. J.; Monteiro, P. M. S.

2014-03-01

The seasonal cycle of primary productivity is impacted by seasonal and intra-seasonal dynamics of the mixed layer through the changing balance between mixing and buoyancy forcing, which regulates nutrient supply and light availability. Of particular recent interest is the role of synoptic scale events in supplying nutrients, particularly iron, to the euphotic zone in the Sub Antarctic Zone (SAZ), where phytoplankton blooms occur throughout summer. In this study, we present high resolution measurements of net community production (NCP) constrained by ΔO2/Ar ratios, and mixed layer depth (MLD) in the Atlantic SAZ. We found a non-linear relationship between NCP and MLD, with the highest and most variable NCP observed in shallow MLDs (< 45 m). We propose that NCP variability in the SAZ may be driven by alternating states of synoptic-scale deepening of the mixed layer, leading to the entrainment of iron (dFe), followed by restratification, allowing rapid growth in an iron replete, high light environment. Synoptic iron fluxes into the euphotic zone based on water column dFe profiles and high resolution glider MLD data, reveal a potentially significant contribution of "new iron" which could sustain NCP throughout summer. Future process studies will help elaborate these findings further.

Multiwavelength Characteristics of Microflares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poduval, Bala; Schmelz, J. T.

2016-10-01

We present the multiwavelength characteristic of microflare detected in the SDO/AIA and IRIS images using the Automated Microevent-finding Code (AMC). We have catalogued independent events with information such as location on the disk, size, lifetime and peak flux, and obtained their frequency distribution. We mapped these events to other wavelengths, using their location information, to study their associated features, and infer the temperature characteristics and evolution. Moreover, we obtained their magnetic topologies by mapping the microflare locations on to the HMI photospheric magnetic field synoptic maps. Further, we analyzed the filtered brightness profiles and light curves for each event to classify them. Finally, we carried out a differential emission measure (DEM) analysis to study their temperature characteristics.

RoboTAP: Target priorities for robotic microlensing observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hundertmark, M.; Street, R. A.; Tsapras, Y.; Bachelet, E.; Dominik, M.; Horne, K.; Bozza, V.; Bramich, D. M.; Cassan, A.; D'Ago, G.; Figuera Jaimes, R.; Kains, N.; Ranc, C.; Schmidt, R. W.; Snodgrass, C.; Wambsganss, J.; Steele, I. A.; Mao, S.; Ment, K.; Menzies, J.; Li, Z.; Cross, S.; Maoz, D.; Shvartzvald, Y.

2018-01-01

Context. The ability to automatically select scientifically-important transient events from an alert stream of many such events, and to conduct follow-up observations in response, will become increasingly important in astronomy. With wide-angle time domain surveys pushing to fainter limiting magnitudes, the capability to follow-up on transient alerts far exceeds our follow-up telescope resources, and effective target prioritization becomes essential. The RoboNet-II microlensing program is a pathfinder project, which has developed an automated target selection process (RoboTAP) for gravitational microlensing events, which are observed in real time using the Las Cumbres Observatory telescope network. Aims: Follow-up telescopes typically have a much smaller field of view compared to surveys, therefore the most promising microlensing events must be automatically selected at any given time from an annual sample exceeding 2000 events. The main challenge is to select between events with a high planet detection sensitivity, with the aim of detecting many planets and characterizing planetary anomalies. Methods: Our target selection algorithm is a hybrid system based on estimates of the planet detection zones around a microlens. It follows automatic anomaly alerts and respects the expected survey coverage of specific events. Results: We introduce the RoboTAP algorithm, whose purpose is to select and prioritize microlensing events with high sensitivity to planetary companions. In this work, we determine the planet sensitivity of the RoboNet follow-up program and provide a working example of how a broker can be designed for a real-life transient science program conducting follow-up observations in response to alerts; we explore the issues that will confront similar programs being developed for the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) and other time domain surveys.

Male germplasm in relation to environmental conditions: synoptic focus on DNA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jenkins, Jill A.; Tiersch, Terrence R.; Green, Christopher C.

2011-01-01

Wild animals are generally more sensitive than humans to environmental stressors, thus they act as sentinels for resource degradation. Sublethal stress is generally manifested first at the sub-organismal level, where immune systems are compromised, reproductive success is reduced, and genetic integrity is altered. Biomarkers - variables quantifiably responsive to changes in the environment - provide useful information to resource managers and regulatory agencies. Biomarkers of sperm quality are proving useful in this capacity, as well as in artificial breeding. Cellular and molecular bioassays can help to determine mechanisms of action of deleterious agents, predict fertility and reproductive potential, and model population-wide and community level effects. A sequence of biomarker assays can be tailored to fit species of concern, to study physiological effects responsive to known contamination events, and can be selectively applied to fresh, thawed, and fixed samples, as well as those shipped to the laboratory from field sites.

The Predictability of Dry-Season Precipitation in Tropical West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knippertz, P.; Davis, J.; Fink, A. H.

2012-04-01

Precipitation during the boreal winter dry season in tropical West Africa is rare but occasionally connected to high-impacts for the local population. Previous work has shown that these events are usually connected to a trough over northwestern Africa, an extensive cloud plume on its eastern side, unusual precipitation at the northern and western fringes of the Sahara, and reduced surface pressure over the southern Sahara and Sahel, which allows an inflow of moist southerlies from the Gulf of Guinea to feed the unusual dry-season rainfalls. These results also suggest that the extratropical influence enhances the predictability of these events on the synoptic timescale. Here we further investigate this question for the 11 dry seasons (November-March) 1998/99-2008/09 using rainfall estimates from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project), and operational ensemble predictions from the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF). All fields are averaged over the study area 7.5-15°N, 10°W-10°E that spans most of southern West Africa. For each 0000 UTC analysis time, the daily precipitation estimates are accumulated to pentads and compared with 120-hour predictions starting at the same time. Compared to TRMM, the ensemble mean shows a weak positive bias, whereas there is a substantial negative bias with regard to GPCP. Temporal correlations reach a high value of 0.8 for both datasets, showing similar synoptic variability despite the differences in total amount. Standard probabilistic evaluation methods such as relative operating characteristic (ROC) diagrams indicate remarkably good reliability, resolution and skill, particularly for lower precipitation thresholds. Not surprisingly, forecasts cluster at low probabilities for higher thresholds, but the reliability and ROC score are still reasonably high. The results show that global ensemble prediction systems are capable to predict dry-season rainfall events in southern West Africa well, at least on regional spatial and synoptic time scales. These results should encourage West African weather services to capitalize more on the valuable information provided by ensemble prediction systems during the dry season.

Compounds of emerging concern in the San Antonio River Basin, Texas, 2011–12

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lambert, Rebecca B.; Opsahl, Stephen P.

2016-11-16

The City of San Antonio and the surrounding municipalities in Bexar County, Texas, are among the fastest growing cities in the Nation. Increases in residential and commercial development are changing runoff patterns and likely will increase chemical loads into streams. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the San Antonio River Authority, evaluated the concentrations and distributional patterns of selected “compounds of emerging concern” (CECs) by collecting and analyzing water-quality samples from 20 sites in the San Antonio River Basin, Tex., during 2011–12. On the basis of their chemical composition or similar uses, the CECs discussed in this fact sheet are wastewater compounds, pharmaceutical compounds (hereinafter referred to as “pharmaceuticals”), and steroidal hormone and sterol compounds (hereinafter referred to as “steroidal hormones and sterols”). Three synoptic sampling events were completed during 2011–12 to analyze for CECs in the San Antonio River Basin. Samples were analyzed for 54 wastewater compounds, 13 pharmaceuticals, 17 steroidal hormones, and 4 sterols. Overall, the concentrations of all CECs analyzed for during this study were low, generally close to or less than the laboratory reporting level.

Planetary and synoptic-scale interactions during the life cycle of a mid-latitude blocking anticyclone over the North Atlantic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Phillip J.

1995-01-01

The formation of a blocking anticyclone over the North Atlantic has been examined over its entire life-CyCle using the Zwack-Okossi (Z-O) equation as the diagnostic tool. This blocking anticyclone occurred in late October and early November of 1985. The data used were provided by the NASA Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres on a global 2.O degree latitude by 2.5 degree longitudinal grid. The horizontal distribution of the atmospheric forcing mechanisms that were important to 500 mb block formation, maintenance and decay were examined. A scale-partitioned form of the Z-O equation was then used to examine the relative importance of forcing on the planetary and synoptic scales, and their interactions. As seen in previous studies, the results presented here show that upper tropospheric anticyclonic vorticity advection was the most important contributor to block formation and maintenance. However, adiabatic warming, and vorticity tilting were also important at various times during the block lifetime. In association with precursor surface cyclogenesis, the 300 mb jet streak in the downstream (upstream) from a long-wave trough (ridge) amplified significantly. This strengthening of the jet streak enhanced the anti-cyclonic vorticity advection field that aided the amplification of a 500 mb short-wave ridge. Tile partitioned height tendency results demonstrate that the interactions between the planetary and sn,noptic-scale through vorticity advection was the most important contributor to block formation. Planetary-scale, synoptic-scale. and their interactions contributed weakly to the maintenance of the blocking anticyclone with the advection of synoptic-scale vorticity by the planetary-scale flow playing a more important role. Planetary-scale decay ofthe long-wave ridge contributed to the demise of this blocking event.

Relationships Among Atmospheric Rivers, Tropical Moisture Exports, and Warm Conveyor Belts over the Northeast Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cordeira, J. M.

2015-12-01

Extreme precipitation and attendant floods annually result in 80 fatalities and $5 Billion in damages across the U.S. and account for 50% of annual average U.S. natural disaster losses. The mechanisms that produce extreme precipitation are well known and are relatively well simulated by modern numerical weather prediction models in conjunction with synoptic-scale and mesoscale lift, instability, moisture, and boundaries. The focus of this presentation is on moisture in the form of synoptic-scale water vapor transport and its role in extreme precipitation along the U.S. West Coast. Many different terms have been used to describe synoptic-scale water vapor transport over the Northeast Pacific, including: moisture conveyor belts, warm conveyor belts, tropical moisture exports, tropical plumes, moisture plumes, pineapple express events, and atmospheric rivers. Each term respectively attempts to quantify or represent the propagation or instantaneous movement of water vapor from the Lagrangian and Eulerian frameworks in which they exist. These differences in frameworks often makes comparing and contrasting, for example, warm conveyor belts and atmospheric rivers difficult and may lead to misguided interpretations of long-range trans-oceanic water vapor transport. The purpose of this presentation is to discuss the dynamics of water vapor transport over the Northeast Pacific from the Eulerian and Lagrangian frameworks and illustrate to what degree the two- and three-dimensional structures of these rivers, exports, and belts overlap. Illustration of overlap between these processes will be shown via case study analysis of synoptic-scale water vapor transport over the Northeast Pacific that led to heavy precipitation along the U.S. West Coast during February 2014 and February 2015.

Methods and basic data from mass-loading studies in American Fork, October 1999, and Mary Ellen Gulch, Utah, September 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kimball, Briant A.; Runkel, Robert L.; Gerner, Linda J.

2009-01-01

Land-management agencies are faced with decisions about remediation in streams affected by mine drainage. In support of the U. S. Forest Service, for the Uinta National Forest, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted mass-loading studies in American Fork and Mary Ellen Gulch, Utah. Synoptic samples were collected along a 10,000-meter study reach in American Fork and 4,500-meter reach in Mary Ellen Gulch. Tracer-injection methods were combined with synoptic sampling methods to evaluate discharge and mass loading. This data-series report gives the results of the chemical analyses of these samples and provides the equations used to calculate discharge from tracer concentrations and loads from discharge and concentrations of the constituents. The detailed information from these studies will facilitate the preparation of interpretive reports and discussions with stakeholder groups. Data presented include detailed locations of the sampling sites, results of chemical analyses, and graphs of mass-loading profiles for major and trace elements in American Fork and Mary Ellen Gulch. Ultrafiltration was used to define filtered concentrations and total-recoverable concentrations were measured on unfiltered samples.

Water-quality data for the Ohio River from Willow Island Dam to Belleville Dam, West Virginia and Ohio, June-October 1991

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chambers, D.B.; Miller, K.F.; Waldron, M.C.; Falkenburg, C.W.

1994-01-01

This report contains water-quality data for the Ohio River from river mile 160.6 (1.1 mi upstream from Willow Island Dam) to river mile 203.6 (0.3 mi upstream from Belleville Dam) during the summer of 1991. Water quality was determined by a combi- nation of synoptic field measurements and laboratory analyses. Synoptic sampling consisted of 8 cross-sectional transects and a longitudinal transect with 28 mid-channel stations. Each cross- sectional transect included five vertical profiles of water temperature, dissolved oxygen concen- tration, pH, and specific conductance. Longi- tudinal transect stations were sampled at three depths (near the surface, middle of the water column, and at or near the bottom) for the same characteristics. Sampling was completed in 3 days or less, and was repeated approximately every 2 weeks from June through October 1991. Beginning in August 1991, water samples were collected at selected locations and analyzed for chlorophyll-a and pheophytin concentrations, as measures of phytoplankton biomass and phytoplankton-degradation products, respectively. The depth of light penetration was estimated at all pigment-sampling locations.

Adjustment of the summertime marine atmospheric boundary layer to the western Iberia coastal morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monteiro, Isabel T.; Santos, Aires J.; Belo-Pereira, Margarida; Oliveira, Paulo B.

2016-04-01

During summer (June, July, and August), northerly winds driven by the Azores anticyclone are prevalent over western Iberia. The Quick Scatterometer Satellite 2000 to 2009 summertime estimates reveal a broad high wind speed (≥7 ms-1) area extending about 300 km from shore and along the entire Iberian west coast. Nested in this large high-speed region, preferred maximum regions anchored in the Iberian major capes, Finisterre, Roca, and S. Vicente, are found. Composite analyses of wind maxima were performed to diagnose the typical summertime synoptic-scale pressure distribution associated with these smaller size high-speed regions. The flow low-level structure was further studied with a mesoscale numerical prediction model for three northerly events characterized by typical summertime synoptic conditions. A low-level coastal jet, setting the background conditions to the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) response to topography, was found in the three cases. The causes for wind maximum downwind capes were investigated, focusing on the hypothesis that western Iberia MABL responds to hydraulic forcing. For the three events supercritical and transcritical flow conditions were identified and expansion fan signatures were found downwind each cape. Aircraft measurements, performed during one of the events, gave additional evidence of the expansion fan leeward Cape Roca. The importance of other forcing mechanisms was also assessed by considering the hypothesis of downslope wind acceleration and found to be in direct conflict with soundings and surface observations.

Can we do better than the grid survey: Optimal synoptic surveys in presence of variable uncertainty and decorrelation scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frolov, Sergey; Garau, Bartolame; Bellingham, James

2014-08-01

Regular grid ("lawnmower") survey is a classical strategy for synoptic sampling of the ocean. Is it possible to achieve a more effective use of available resources if one takes into account a priori knowledge about variability in magnitudes of uncertainty and decorrelation scales? In this article, we develop and compare the performance of several path-planning algorithms: optimized "lawnmower," a graph-search algorithm (A*), and a fully nonlinear genetic algorithm. We use the machinery of the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) to quantify the ability of a vehicle fleet to synoptically map distribution of phytoplankton off the central California coast. We used satellite and in situ data to specify covariance information required by the BLUE estimator. Computational experiments showed that two types of sampling strategies are possible: a suboptimal space-filling design (produced by the "lawnmower" and the A* algorithms) and an optimal uncertainty-aware design (produced by the genetic algorithm). Unlike the space-filling designs that attempted to cover the entire survey area, the optimal design focused on revisiting areas of high uncertainty. Results of the multivehicle experiments showed that fleet performance predictors, such as cumulative speed or the weight of the fleet, predicted the performance of a homogeneous fleet well; however, these were poor predictors for comparing the performance of different platforms.

Estimating instream constituent loads using replicate synoptic sampling, Peru Creek, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Runkel, Robert L.; Walton-Day, Katherine; Kimball, Briant A.; Verplanck, Philip L.; Nimick, David A.

2013-05-01

SummaryThe synoptic mass balance approach is often used to evaluate constituent mass loading in streams affected by mine drainage. Spatial profiles of constituent mass load are used to identify sources of contamination and prioritize sites for remedial action. This paper presents a field scale study in which replicate synoptic sampling campaigns are used to quantify the aggregate uncertainty in constituent load that arises from (1) laboratory analyses of constituent and tracer concentrations, (2) field sampling error, and (3) temporal variation in concentration from diel constituent cycles and/or source variation. Consideration of these factors represents an advance in the application of the synoptic mass balance approach by placing error bars on estimates of constituent load and by allowing all sources of uncertainty to be quantified in aggregate; previous applications of the approach have provided only point estimates of constituent load and considered only a subset of the possible errors. Given estimates of aggregate uncertainty, site specific data and expert judgement may be used to qualitatively assess the contributions of individual factors to uncertainty. This assessment can be used to guide the collection of additional data to reduce uncertainty. Further, error bars provided by the replicate approach can aid the investigator in the interpretation of spatial loading profiles and the subsequent identification of constituent source areas within the watershed. The replicate sampling approach is applied to Peru Creek, a stream receiving acidic, metal-rich effluent from the Pennsylvania Mine. Other sources of acidity and metals within the study reach include a wetland area adjacent to the mine and tributary inflow from Cinnamon Gulch. Analysis of data collected under low-flow conditions indicates that concentrations of Al, Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Pb, and Zn in Peru Creek exceed aquatic life standards. Constituent loading within the study reach is dominated by effluent from the Pennsylvania Mine, with over 50% of the Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, and Zn loads attributable to a collapsed adit near the top of the study reach. These estimates of mass load may underestimate the effect of the Pennsylvania Mine as leakage from underground mine workings may contribute to metal loads that are currently attributed to the wetland area. This potential leakage confounds the evaluation of remedial options and additional research is needed to determine the magnitude and location of the leakage.

Estimating instream constituent loads using replicate synoptic sampling, Peru Creek, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runkel, Robert L.; Walton-Day, Katherine; Kimball, Briant A.; Verplanck, Philip L.; Nimick, David A.

2013-01-01

The synoptic mass balance approach is often used to evaluate constituent mass loading in streams affected by mine drainage. Spatial profiles of constituent mass load are used to identify sources of contamination and prioritize sites for remedial action. This paper presents a field scale study in which replicate synoptic sampling campaigns are used to quantify the aggregate uncertainty in constituent load that arises from (1) laboratory analyses of constituent and tracer concentrations, (2) field sampling error, and (3) temporal variation in concentration from diel constituent cycles and/or source variation. Consideration of these factors represents an advance in the application of the synoptic mass balance approach by placing error bars on estimates of constituent load and by allowing all sources of uncertainty to be quantified in aggregate; previous applications of the approach have provided only point estimates of constituent load and considered only a subset of the possible errors. Given estimates of aggregate uncertainty, site specific data and expert judgement may be used to qualitatively assess the contributions of individual factors to uncertainty. This assessment can be used to guide the collection of additional data to reduce uncertainty. Further, error bars provided by the replicate approach can aid the investigator in the interpretation of spatial loading profiles and the subsequent identification of constituent source areas within the watershed.The replicate sampling approach is applied to Peru Creek, a stream receiving acidic, metal-rich effluent from the Pennsylvania Mine. Other sources of acidity and metals within the study reach include a wetland area adjacent to the mine and tributary inflow from Cinnamon Gulch. Analysis of data collected under low-flow conditions indicates that concentrations of Al, Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Pb, and Zn in Peru Creek exceed aquatic life standards. Constituent loading within the study reach is dominated by effluent from the Pennsylvania Mine, with over 50% of the Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, and Zn loads attributable to a collapsed adit near the top of the study reach. These estimates of mass load may underestimate the effect of the Pennsylvania Mine as leakage from underground mine workings may contribute to metal loads that are currently attributed to the wetland area. This potential leakage confounds the evaluation of remedial options and additional research is needed to determine the magnitude and location of the leakage.

A two year (2008-2009) analysis of severe convective storms in the Mediterranean basin as observed by satellite imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gozzini, B.; Melani, S.; Pasi, F.; Ortolani, A.

2010-09-01

The increasing damages caused by natural disasters, a great part of them being direct or indirect effects of severe convective storms (SCS), seem to suggest that extreme events occur with greater frequency, also as a consequence of climate changes. A better comprehension of the genesis and evolution of SCS is then necessary to clarify if and what is changing in these extreme events. The major reason to go through the mechanisms driving such events is given by the growing need to have timely and precise predictions of severe weather events, especially in areas that show to be more and more sensitive to their occurrence. When dealing with severe weather events, either from a researcher or an operational point of view, it is necessary to know precisely the conditions under which these events take place to upgrade conceptual models or theories, and consequently to improve the quality of forecasts as well as to establish effective warning decision procedures. The Mediterranean basin is, in general terms, a sea of small areal extent, characterised by the presence of several islands; thus, a severe convection phenomenon originating over the sea, that lasts several hours, is very likely to make landfall during its lifetime. On the other hand, these storms are quasi-stationary or very slow moving so that, when convection happens close to the shoreline, it is normally very dangerous and in many cases can cause very severe weather, with flash floods or tornadoes. An example of these extreme events is one of the case study analysed in this work, regarding the flash flood occurred in Giampileri (Sicily, Italy) the evening of 1st October 2009, where 18 people died, other 79 injured and the historical centre of the village seriously damaged. Severe weather systems and strong convection occurring in the Mediterranean basin have been investigated for two years (2008-2009) using geostationary (MSG) and polar orbiting (AVHRR) satellite data, supported by ECMWF analyses and severe weather reports. The spatial and seasonal variability of storm occurrence have been also analysed, as well as the most favourable synoptic conditions for their formation. The analysis shows the existence of preferential areas of genesis of these extreme events, mainly located in the central Mediterranean (i.e., Ionic and Tyrrhenian seas), where the storms develop and grow preferentially in fall. The synoptic features, identified as precursors of severe convective events genesis, show how the totality of the identified cases occur in mid-troposphere (500 hPa) troughs or cut-off circulation within southerly flow, with values of deep level shear of at least 15 m s-1 and high θe (850 hPa) values. Among all the detected cases of severe convection, two selected cases of enhanced-V features are presented in detail, either for the different synoptic environments in which they are embedded, and for being long-lived or severe in terms of heavy rainfall and damages they produced at the ground. In a long-term perspective, this preliminary study aims to make a climatological database of severe weather events occurring in the Mediterranean sea which may critically impact on the Italian peninsula and potentially affect population, in order to develop an objective procedure which can support regional meteorological services in forecasting extreme events, their development and impact, for taking proper early decisions.

Stable Isotopic Composition of Precipitation from 2015-2016 Central Texas Rainfall Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maupin, C. R.; McChesney, C. L.; Roark, B.; Gorman, M. K.; Housson, A. L.

2016-12-01

Central Texas lies within the Southern Great Plains, a region where rainfall is of tremendous agricultural and associated socioeconomic importance. Paleoclimate records from speleothems in central Texas caves may assist in placing historical and recent drought and pluvial events in the context of natural variability. Effective interpretation of such records requires the nature and origin of variations in the meteoric δ18O signal transmitted from cloud to speleothem to be understood. Here we present a record of meteoric δ18O and δD from each individual precipitation event (δ18Op and δDp), collected by rain gauge in Austin, Texas, USA, from April 2015 through 2016. Backwards hybrid single-particle Lagrangian integrated trajectories (HYSPLITs) indicate the broader moisture source for each precipitation event during this time was the Gulf of Mexico. The local meteoric water line is within error of the global meteoric water line, suggesting minimal sourcing of evaporated continental vapor for precipitation. Total monthly rainfall followed the climatological pattern of a dual boreal spring and fall maximum, with highly variable event δ18Op and δDp values. Surface temperature during precipitation often exerts control over continental and mid latitude δ18Op values, but is not significantly correlated to study site δ18Op (p>0.10). Amount of rain falling during each precipitation event ("amount effect") explains a significant 18% of variance in δ18Op. We hypothesize that this relationship can be attributed to the following: 1) minimal recycling of continental water vapor during the study period; 2) the presence of synoptic conditions favoring intense boreal spring and fall precipitation, driven by a developing, and subsequently in-place, strong ENSO event coupled with a southerly flow from the open Gulf of Mexico; and 3) the meteorological nature of the predominant precipitating events over Texas during this time, mesoscale convective systems, which are known to produce an "amount effect" if effective in-storm downdraft-recycling is present. Continued rainfall monitoring and isotopic measurements are required to determine whether this relationship persists during years with synoptic conditions different from 2015-2016.

A Synoptic Analysis of the Change from the Geocentric to the Heliocentric Conception of the Solar System.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilson, Roosevelt L.

The changes which occurred in man's view of the solar system from the time of Ptolemy to that of Galileo are presented. Contained is a brief review of the chain of events which resulted in the acceptance of a heliocentric system. Ptolomy's theory is described and a diagram illustrates the paths of the epicycle of Mars according to his geocentric…

Examination of tracer transport in the NCAR CCM2 by comparison of CFCl3 simulations with ALE/GAGE observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartley, Dana E.; Williamson, David L.; Rasch, Philip J.; Prinn, Ronald G.

1994-01-01

The latest version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) community climate model (CCM2) contains a semi-Lagrangian tracer transport scheme for the purpose of advecting water vapor and for including chemistry in the climate model. One way to diagnose the CCM2 transport is to simulate CFCl3 in the CCM2 since it has a well-known industry-based source distribution and a photochemical sink and to compare the model results to Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment/Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment ALE/GAGE observations around the globe. In this paper we focus on this comparison and discuss the synoptic scale issues of tracer transport where appropriate. We compare the model and observations on both 12-hour and monthly timescales. The higher-frequency events allow us to diagnose the synoptic scale transport in the CCM2 associated with the observational sites and to determine uncertainties in our high-resolution source distribution. We find that the CCM2 does simulate many of the key features such as pollution events and some seasonal transports, but there are still some dynamical features of tracer transport such as the storm track dynamics and cross-equatorial flow that merit further study in both the model and the real atmosphere.

Streamflow, water-quality, and biological conditions in the Big Black Creek basin, St. Clair County, Alabama, 1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

Journey, Celeste A.; Clark, Amy E.; Stricklin, Victor E.

1998-01-01

In 1997 synoptic streamflow, water-quality, and biological investi- gations in the Big Black Creek Basin were conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the City of Moody, St. Clair County, and the Birmingham Water Works Board. Data obtained during these synoptic investigations provide a one-time look at the streamflow and water-quality conditions in the Big Black Creek Basin during a stable, base-flow period when streamflow originated only from ground-water discharge. These data were used to assess the degree of water-quality degradation in the Big Black Creek Basin from land-use activities in the basin, including leakage of leachate from the Acmar Regional Land- fill. Biological data from the benthic invertebrate community investigation provided an assessment of the cumulative effects of stream conditions on organisms in the basin. The synoptic measurement of streamflow at 28 sites was made during a period of baseflow on August 27, 1997. Two stream reaches above the landfill lost water to the ground-water system, but those below the landfill had significantly higher ground-water gains. If significant leakage of leachate from the landfill had occurred during the measurement period, the distribution of ground-water discharge suggests that leachate would travel relatively short distances before resurfacing as ground-water discharge to the stream. Benthic invertebrate communities were sampled at four sites in the Big Black Creek Basin during July 16-17, 1997. Based on Alabama Department of Environmental Management criteria and on comparison with a nearby unimparied reference site, the benthic invertebrate communities at the sites sampled were considered unimpaired or only slightly impaired during the sample period. This would imply that landfill and coal-mining activities did not have a detrimental effect on the benthic invertebrate communities at the time of the study. Synoptic water-column samples were collected at nine sites on Big Black Creek and its tributaries at the same time that the synoptic streamflow measurements were made. Trace-element and organic compound concentrations in the stream water were below established water-quality standards and criteria for the State of Alabama, with the exception of secondary (aesthetic) drinking-water levels for iron and manganese. Oil and grease concentrations detected in bed sediments were below the corrective action limit of 100 milligrams per kilogram. No significant increases in chloride, specific conductance, total dissolved solids, oil and grease, color, or biochemical oxygen demand were observed at sites downgradient from the landfill. Ground-water samples were collected from three drive-point wells in the vicinity of the landfill. These samples were analyzed for a suite of volatile organic compounds. The solvent 1,1-dichloroethane (the same solvent detected in the ground-water monitoring system at the landfill) was detected in a sample from a drive-point well downgradient from the landfill--an indication of the potential risk of landfill-derived contamination migrating toward Big Black Creek. No distinguishing trend or pattern of contamination was identified that could be attributed solely to landfill activities. Landfill activities did not appear to contribute significant contamination to Big Black Creek during these streamflow conditions. Any contaminant contribution from coal-mining activities in the basin may have served to mask any leachate contributions from the landfill; however, the overall effects on stream water and benthic intervebrate communities apparently were only minimal.

Automated Transient Identification in the Dark Energy Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldstein, D. A.; D'Andrea, C. B.; Fischer, J. A.; Foley, R. J.; Gupta, R. R.; Kessler, R.; Kim, A. G.; Nichol, R. C.; Nugent, P. E.; Papadopoulos, A.; Sako, M.; Smith, M.; Sullivan, M.; Thomas, R. C.; Wester, W.; Wolf, R. C.; Abdalla, F. B.; Banerji, M.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bertin, E.; Brooks, D.; Carnero Rosell, A.; Castander, F. J.; da Costa, L. N.; Covarrubias, R.; DePoy, D. L.; Desai, S.; Diehl, H. T.; Doel, P.; Eifler, T. F.; Fausti Neto, A.; Finley, D. A.; Flaugher, B.; Fosalba, P.; Frieman, J.; Gerdes, D.; Gruen, D.; Gruendl, R. A.; James, D.; Kuehn, K.; Kuropatkin, N.; Lahav, O.; Li, T. S.; Maia, M. A. G.; Makler, M.; March, M.; Marshall, J. L.; Martini, P.; Merritt, K. W.; Miquel, R.; Nord, B.; Ogando, R.; Plazas, A. A.; Romer, A. K.; Roodman, A.; Sanchez, E.; Scarpine, V.; Schubnell, M.; Sevilla-Noarbe, I.; Smith, R. C.; Soares-Santos, M.; Sobreira, F.; Suchyta, E.; Swanson, M. E. C.; Tarle, G.; Thaler, J.; Walker, A. R.

2015-09-01

We describe an algorithm for identifying point-source transients and moving objects on reference-subtracted optical images containing artifacts of processing and instrumentation. The algorithm makes use of the supervised machine learning technique known as Random Forest. We present results from its use in the Dark Energy Survey Supernova program (DES-SN), where it was trained using a sample of 898,963 signal and background events generated by the transient detection pipeline. After reprocessing the data collected during the first DES-SN observing season (2013 September through 2014 February) using the algorithm, the number of transient candidates eligible for human scanning decreased by a factor of 13.4, while only 1.0% of the artificial Type Ia supernovae (SNe) injected into search images to monitor survey efficiency were lost, most of which were very faint events. Here we characterize the algorithm’s performance in detail, and we discuss how it can inform pipeline design decisions for future time-domain imaging surveys, such as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope and the Zwicky Transient Facility. An implementation of the algorithm and the training data used in this paper are available at at http://portal.nersc.gov/project/dessn/autoscan.

Variability of Upper-Tropospheric Precipitable from Satellite and Model Reanalysis Datasets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedlovec, Gary J.; Iwai, Hisaki

1999-01-01

Numerous datasets have been used to quantify water vapor and its variability in the upper-troposphere from satellite and model reanalysis data. These investigations have shown some usefulness in monitoring seasonal and inter-annual variations in moisture either globally, with polar orbiting satellite data or global model output analysis, or regionally, with the higher spatial and temporal resolution geostationary measurements. The datasets are not without limitations, however, due to coverage or limited temporal sampling, and may also contain bias in their representation of moisture processes. The research presented in this conference paper inter-compares the NVAP, NCEP/NCAR and DAO reanalysis models, and GOES satellite measurements of upper-tropospheric,precipitable water for the period from 1988-1994. This period captures several dramatic swings in climate events associated with ENSO events. The data are evaluated for temporal and spatial continuity, inter-compared to assess reliability and potential bias, and analyzed in light of expected trends due to changes in precipitation and synoptic-scale weather features. This work is the follow-on to previous research which evaluated total precipitable water over the same period. The relationship between total and upper-level precipitable water in the datasets will be discussed as well.

Stormwater Runoff and Water Quality Modeling in Urban Maryland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Forman, B. A.; Natarajan, P.; Davis, A.

2015-12-01

Urbanization significantly affects storm water runoff through the creation of new impervious surfaces such as highways, parking lots, and rooftops. Such changes can adversely impact the downstream receiving water bodies in terms of physical, chemical, and biological conditions. In order to mitigate the effects of urbanization on downstream water bodies, stormwater control measures (SCMs) have been widely used (e.g., infiltration basins, bioswales). A suite of observations from an infiltration basin installed adjacent to a highway in urban Maryland was used to evaluate stormwater runoff attenuation and pollutant removal rates at the well-instrumented SCM study site. In this study, the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) was used to simulate the performance of the SCM. An automatic, split-sample calibration framework was developed to improve SWMM performance efficiency. The results indicate SWMM can accurately reproduce the hydraulic response of the SCM (in terms of reproducing measured inflow and outflow) during synoptic scale storm events lasting more than one day, but is less accurate during storm events lasting only a few hours. Similar results were found for a suite of modeled (and observed) water quality constituents, including suspended sediment, metals, N, P, and chloride.

NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Graduate Student Program. [FIRE CIRRUS-II examination of coupling between an upper tropospheric cloud system and synoptic-scale dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ackerman, Thomas P.

1994-01-01

The evolution of synoptic-scale dynamics associated with a middle and upper tropospheric cloud event that occurred on 26 November 1991 is examined. The case under consideration occurred during the FIRE CIRRUS-II Intensive Field Observing Period held in Coffeyville, KS during Nov. and Dec., 1991. Using data from the wind profiler demonstration network and a temporally and spatially augmented radiosonde array, emphasis is given to explaining the evolution of the kinematically-derived ageostrophic vertical circulations and correlating the circulation with the forcing of an extensively sampled cloud field. This is facilitated by decomposing the horizontal divergence into its component parts through a natural coordinate representation of the flow. Ageostrophic vertical circulations are inferred and compared to the circulation forcing arising from geostrophic confluence and shearing deformation derived from the Sawyer-Eliassen Equation. It is found that a thermodynamically indirect vertical circulation existed in association with a jet streak exit region. The circulation was displaced to the cyclonic side of the jet axis due to the orientation of the jet exit between a deepening diffluent trough and building ridge. The cloud line formed in the ascending branch of the vertical circulation with the most concentrated cloud development occurring in conjunction with the maximum large-scale vertical motion. The relationship between the large scale dynamics and the parameterization of middle and upper tropospheric clouds in large-scale models is discussed and an example of ice water contents derived from a parameterization forced by the diagnosed vertical motions and observed water vapor contents is presented.

Tropospheric characteristics over sea ice during N-ICE2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kayser, Markus; Maturilli, Marion; Graham, Robert; Hudson, Stephen; Cohen, Lana; Rinke, Annette; Kim, Joo-Hong; Park, Sang-Jong; Moon, Woosok; Granskog, Mats

2017-04-01

Over recent years, the Arctic Ocean region has shifted towards a younger and thinner sea-ice regime. The Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition was designed to investigate the atmosphere-snow-ice-ocean interactions in this new ice regime north of Svalbard. Here we analyze upper-air measurements made by radiosondes launched twice daily together with surface meteorology observations during N-ICE2015 from January to June 2015. We study the multiple cyclonic events observed during N-ICE2015 with respect to changes in the vertical thermodynamic structure, sudden increases in moisture content and temperature, temperature inversions and boundary layer dynamics. The influence of synoptic cyclones is strongest under polar night conditions, when radiative cooling is most effective and the moisture content is low. We find that transitions between the radiatively clear and opaque state are the largest drivers of changes to temperature inversion and stability characteristics in the boundary layer during winter. In spring radiative fluxes warm the surface leading to lifted temperature inversions and a statically unstable boundary layer. The unique N-ICE2015 dataset is used for case studies investigating changes in the vertical structure of the atmosphere under varying synoptic conditions. The goal is to deepen our understanding of synoptic interactions within the Arctic climate system, to improve model performance, as well as to identify gaps in instrumentation, which precludes further investigations.

Aspects of extratropical synoptic-scale processes in opposing ENSO phases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwierz, C.; Wernli, H.; Hess, D.

2003-04-01

Energy and momentum provided by anomalous tropical heating/cooling affect the circulation on the global scale. Pacific Sea surface temperature anomalies strongly force local conditions in the equatorial Pacific, but are also known to change the climate in the extratropics, particularly over the American continent. The impact on more remote areas such as the Atlantic-European region is less clear. There the observed effects in both analyses and model studies show dependence on the resolution of the model/data, as well as on the time scales under consideration (Merkel and Latif, 2002; Compo et al., 2001). Most of the previous studies focus on larger-scale processes and seasonal time scales (or longer). Here we concentrate on the impact of opposing ENSO phases on extratropical synoptic-scale dynamics. The investigation is undertaken for the Niño/Niña events of 1972/3 and 1973/4 respectively, for 5 winter months (NDJFM) using ECMWF ERA40 data with 1o× 1o horizontal resolution and 60 vertical levels. The examination of the resulting differences in terms of standard dynamical fields (temperature, sea level pressure, precipitation, geopotential) is complemented with additional diagnostic fields (e.g. potential vorticity (PV), anti-/cyclone tracks and frequencies, PV streamers/cut-offs, blocking) in an attempt to gain more insight into aspects of extratropical synoptic-scale dynamical processes associated with ENSO SST anomalies.

Application of satellite data to tropic/subtropic moisture coupling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcguirk, J. P.; Thompson, A. H.

1985-01-01

The objective is to develop analysis tools for use of satellite data to interpret synoptic-scale systems in data-void regions. Interim goals are to: (1) quantify the synoptic information content of satellite data; and (2) utilize these data in the diagnosis of moisture bursts in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Researchers developed and implemented a statistical procedure for using TIROS N microwave data to infer infrared channel data for overcast conditions; they used the same procedure for deducing full TIROS N channel radiance profiles from NOAA 5 VTPR channel data over regions where the TIROS N data are missing. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of twice-daily channel radiance fields over the tropical eastern Pacific was completed. The vertically oriented eigenfunctions were interpreted in terms of typical meteorological events. The horizontal distribution of the eigenfunction amplitudes relates these meteorological signals to moisture bursts. A pair of moisture burst climatologies is complete: one of four years using infrared imagery (including the highly anomalous 1982 to 83 cold season); the other implementing 850 to 200 mb wind analyses in conjunction with GOES imagery. A number of different evaluations of the synoptic evolution of moisture fields (enhanced infrared imagery, moisture channel data, FGGE humidity analysis, and in situ station and sounding observations) are compared. All have limitations; all can be utilized together; all together are still less than adequate in the tropical Pacific.

Estimating the contribution of strong daily export events to total pollutant export from the United States in summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Yuanyuan; Fiore, Arlene M.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Levy, Hiram; Hu, Yongtao; Russell, Armistead G.

2009-12-01

While the export of pollutants from the United States exhibits notable variability from day to day and is often considered to be "episodic," the contribution of strong daily export events to total export has not been quantified. We use carbon monoxide (CO) as a tracer of anthropogenic pollutants in the Model of OZone And Related Tracers (MOZART) to estimate this contribution. We first identify the major export pathway from the United States to be through the northeast boundary (24-48°N along 67.5°W and 80-67.5°W along 48°N), and then analyze 15 summers of daily CO export fluxes through this boundary. These daily CO export fluxes have a nearly Gaussian distribution with a mean of 1100 Gg CO day-1 and a standard deviation of 490 Gg CO day-1. To focus on the synoptic variability, we define a "synoptic background" export flux equal to the 15 day moving average export flux and classify strong export days according to their fluxes relative to this background. As expected from Gaussian statistics, 16% of summer days are "strong export days," classified as those days when the CO export flux exceeds the synoptic background by one standard deviation or more. Strong export days contributes 25% to the total export, a value determined by the relative standard deviation of the CO flux distribution. Regressing the anomalies of the CO export flux through the northeast U.S. boundary relative to the synoptic background on the daily anomalies in the surface pressure field (also relative to a 15 day running mean) suggests that strong daily export fluxes are correlated with passages of midlatitude cyclones over the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. The associated cyclonic circulation and Warm Conveyor Belts (WCBs) that lift surface pollutants over the northeastern United States have been shown previously to be associated with long-range transport events. Comparison with observations from the 2004 INTEX-NA field campaign confirms that our model captures the observed enhancements in CO outflow and resolves the processes associated with cyclone passages on strong export days. "Moderate export days," defined as days when the CO flux through the northeast boundary exceeds the 15 day running mean by less than one standard deviation, represent an additional 34% of summer days and 40% of total export. These days are also associated with migratory midlatitude cyclones. The remaining 35% of total export occurs on "weak export days" (50% of summer days) when high pressure anomalies occur over the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. Our findings for summer also apply to spring, when the U.S. pollutant export is typically strongest, with similar contributions to total export and associated meteorology on strong, moderate and weak export days. Although cyclone passages are the primary driver for strong daily export events, export during days without cyclone passages also makes a considerable contribution to the total export and thereby to the global pollutant budget.

HadISD: a quality-controlled global synoptic report database for selected variables at long-term stations from 1973-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunn, R. J. H.; Willett, K. M.; Thorne, P. W.; Woolley, E. V.; Durre, I.; Dai, A.; Parker, D. E.; Vose, R. S.

2012-10-01

This paper describes the creation of HadISD: an automatically quality-controlled synoptic resolution dataset of temperature, dewpoint temperature, sea-level pressure, wind speed, wind direction and cloud cover from global weather stations for 1973-2011. The full dataset consists of over 6000 stations, with 3427 long-term stations deemed to have sufficient sampling and quality for climate applications requiring sub-daily resolution. As with other surface datasets, coverage is heavily skewed towards Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. The dataset is constructed from a large pre-existing ASCII flatfile data bank that represents over a decade of substantial effort at data retrieval, reformatting and provision. These raw data have had varying levels of quality control applied to them by individual data providers. The work proceeded in several steps: merging stations with multiple reporting identifiers; reformatting to netCDF; quality control; and then filtering to form a final dataset. Particular attention has been paid to maintaining true extreme values where possible within an automated, objective process. Detailed validation has been performed on a subset of global stations and also on UK data using known extreme events to help finalise the QC tests. Further validation was performed on a selection of extreme events world-wide (Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the cold snap in Alaska in 1989 and heat waves in SE Australia in 2009). Some very initial analyses are performed to illustrate some of the types of problems to which the final data could be applied. Although the filtering has removed the poorest station records, no attempt has been made to homogenise the data thus far, due to the complexity of retaining the true distribution of high-resolution data when applying adjustments. Hence non-climatic, time-varying errors may still exist in many of the individual station records and care is needed in inferring long-term trends from these data. This dataset will allow the study of high frequency variations of temperature, pressure and humidity on a global basis over the last four decades. Both individual extremes and the overall population of extreme events could be investigated in detail to allow for comparison with past and projected climate. A version-control system has been constructed for this dataset to allow for the clear documentation of any updates and corrections in the future.

A comparison of pre- and post-remediation water quality, Mineral Creek, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runkel, R.L.; Bencala, K.E.; Kimball, B.A.; Walton-Day, K.; Verplanck, P.L.

2009-01-01

Pre- and post-remediation data sets are used herein to assess the effectiveness of remedial measures implemented in the headwaters of the Mineral Creek watershed, where contamination from hard rock mining has led to elevated metal concentrations and acidic pH. Collection of pre- and post-remediation data sets generally followed the synoptic mass balance approach, in which numerous stream and inflow locations are sampled for the constituents of interest and estimates of streamflow are determined by tracer dilution. The comparison of pre- and post-remediation data sets is confounded by hydrologic effects and the effects of temporal variation. Hydrologic effects arise due to the relatively wet conditions that preceded the collection of pre-remediation data, and the relatively dry conditions associated with the post-remediation data set. This difference leads to a dilution effect in the upper part of the study reach, where pre-remediation concentrations were diluted by rainfall, and a source area effect in the lower part of the study reach, where a smaller portion of the watershed may have been contributing constituent mass during the drier post-remediation period. A second confounding factor, temporal variability, violates the steady-state assumption that underlies the synoptic mass balance approach, leading to false identification of constituent sources and sinks. Despite these complications, remedial actions completed in the Mineral Creek headwaters appear to have led to improvements in stream water quality, as post-remediation profiles of instream load are consistently lower than the pre-remediation profiles over the entire study reach for six of the eight constituents considered (aluminium, arsenic, cadmium, copper, iron, and zinc). Concentrations of aluminium, cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc remain above chronic aquatic-life standards, however, and additional remedial actions may be needed. Future implementations of the synoptic mass balance approach should be preceded by an assessment of temporal variability, and modifications to the synoptic sampling protocol should be made if necessary.

Development and implementation of a synoptic MRI report for preoperative staging of rectal cancer on a population-based level.

PubMed

Kennedy, Erin D; Milot, Laurent; Fruitman, Mark; Al-Sukhni, Eisar; Heine, Gabrielle; Schmocker, Selina; Brown, Gina; McLeod, Robin S

2014-06-01

Colorectal cancer physician champions across the province of Ontario, Canada, reported significant concern about appropriate selection of patients for preoperative chemoradiotherapy because of perceived variation in the completeness and consistency of MRI reports. The purpose of this work was to develop, pilot test, and implement a synoptic MRI report for preoperative staging of rectal cancer. This was an integrated knowledge translation project. This study was conducted in Ontario, Canada. Surgeons, radiologists, radiation oncologists, medical oncologists, and pathologists treating patients with rectal cancer were included in this study. A multifaceted knowledge translation strategy was used to develop, pilot test, and implement a synoptic MRI report. This strategy included physician champions, audit and feedback, assessment of barriers, and tailoring to the local context. A radiology webinar was conducted to pilot test the synoptic MRI report. Seventy-three (66%) of 111 Ontario radiologists participated in the radiology webinar and evaluated the synoptic MRI report. A total of 78% and 90% radiologists expressed that the synoptic MRI report was easy to use and included all of the appropriate items; 82% noted that the synoptic MRI report improved the overall quality of their information, and 83% indicated they would consider using this report in their clinical practice. An MRI report audit after implementation of the synoptic MRI report showed a 39% improvement in the completeness of MRI reports and a 37% uptake of the synoptic MRI report format across the province. Radiologists evaluating the synoptic MRI report and participating in the radiology webinar may not be representative of gastroenterologic radiologists in other geographic jurisdictions. The evaluation of completeness and uptake of the synoptic MRI reports is limited because of unmeasured differences that may occur before and after the MRI. A synoptic MRI report for preoperative staging of rectal cancer was successfully developed and pilot tested in the province of Ontario, Canada.

Concept and Analysis of a Satellite for Space-Based Radio Detection of Ultra-High Energy Cosmic Rays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romero-Wolf, Andrew; Gorham, P.; Booth, J.; Chen, P.; Duren, R. M.; Liewer, K.; Nam, J.; Saltzberg, D.; Schoorlemmer, H.; Wissel, S.; Zairfian, P.

2014-01-01

We present a concept for on-orbit radio detection of ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) that has the potential to provide collection rates of ~100 events per year for energies above 10^20 eV. The synoptic wideband orbiting radio detector (SWORD) mission's high event statistics at these energies combined with the pointing capabilities of a space-borne antenna array could enable charged particle astronomy. The detector concept is based on ANITA's successful detection UHECRs where the geosynchrotron radio signal produced by the extended air shower is reflected off the Earth's surface and detected in flight.

Design and methods of the Southeast Stream Quality Assessment (SESQA), 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Journey, Celeste A.; Van Metre, Peter C.; Bell, Amanda H.; Button, Daniel T.; Garrett, Jessica D.; Nakagaki, Naomi; Qi, Sharon L.; Bradley, Paul M.

2015-07-15

This report provides a detailed description of the SESQA study components, including surveys of ecological conditions, routine water sampling, deployment of passive polar organic compound integrative samplers for pesticides and contaminants of emerging concern, and synoptic sediment sampling and toxicity testing at all urban, confined animal feeding operation, and reference sites. Continuous water-quality monitoring and daily pesticide sampling efforts conducted at a subset of urban sites are also described.

Applying complex networks to evaluate precipitation patterns over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciemer, Catrin; Boers, Niklas; Barbosa, Henrique; Kurths, Jürgen; Rammig, Anja

2016-04-01

The climate of South America exhibits pronounced differences between the wet- and the dry-season, which are accompanied by specific synoptic events like changes in the location of the South American Low Level Jet (SALLJ) and the establishment of the South American Convergence Zone (SACZ). The onset of these events can be related to the presence of typical large-scale precipitation patterns over South America, as previous studies have shown[1,2]. The application of complex network methods to precipitation data recently received increased scientific attention for the special case of extreme events, as it is possible with such methods to analyze the spatiotemporal correlation structure as well as possible teleconnections of these events[3,4]. In these approaches the correlation between precipitation datasets is calculated by means of Event Synchronization which restricts their applicability to extreme precipitation events. In this work, we propose a method which is able to consider not only extreme precipitation but complete time series. A direct application of standard similarity measures in order to correlate precipitation time series is impossible due to their intricate statistical properties as the large amount of zeros. Therefore, we introduced and evaluated a suitable modification of Pearson's correlation coefficient to construct spatial correlation networks of precipitation. By analyzing the characteristics of spatial correlation networks constructed on the basis of this new measure, we are able to determine coherent areas of similar precipitation patterns, spot teleconnections of correlated areas, and detect central regions for precipitation correlation. By analyzing the change of the network over the year[5], we are also able to determine local and global changes in precipitation correlation patterns. Additionally, global network characteristics as the network connectivity yield indications for beginning and end of wet- and dry season. In order to identify large-scale synoptic events like the SACZ and SALLJ onset, detecting the changes of correlation over time between certain regions is of significant relevance. [1] Nieto-Ferreira et al. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (2011) [2] Vera et al. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2006) [3] Quiroga et al. Physical review E (2002) [4] Boers et al. nature communications (2014) [5] Radebach et al. Physical review E (2013)

Conceptual Design of a Synoptic Interplanetary Monitor Platform at L sub 1 (SIMPL).

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-11-01

solar events. -159- . . . .. . 105 II1II" -I .5 year mission at Earth-Sun- libration point plus transfer orbit eDashed line is approximate true dose as...Design .. ...................................... 27 4.1 The L Libration Point .......................... 27 4.2 L Orbit Options...34) to provide power, attitude control, communications, and other support to maintain the instruments in a halo orbit around the L libration point ; 4. a

How does the ice sheet surface mass balance relate to snowfall? Insights from a ground-based precipitation radar in East Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souverijns, Niels; Gossart, Alexandra; Gorodetskaya, Irina V.; Lhermitte, Stef; Mangold, Alexander; Laffineur, Quentin; Delcloo, Andy; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.

2018-06-01

Local surface mass balance (SMB) measurements are crucial for understanding changes in the total mass of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, including its contribution to sea level rise. Despite continuous attempts to decipher mechanisms controlling the local and regional SMB, a clear understanding of the separate components is still lacking, while snowfall measurements are almost absent. In this study, the different terms of the SMB are quantified at the Princess Elisabeth (PE) station in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. Furthermore, the relationship between snowfall and accumulation at the surface is investigated. To achieve this, a unique collocated set of ground-based and in situ remote sensing instrumentation (Micro Rain Radar, ceilometer, automatic weather station, among others) was set up and operated for a time period of 37 months. Snowfall originates mainly from moist and warm air advected from lower latitudes associated with cyclone activity. However, snowfall events are not always associated with accumulation. During 38 % of the observed snowfall cases, the freshly fallen snow is ablated by the wind during the course of the event. Generally, snow storms of longer duration and larger spatial extent have a higher chance of resulting in accumulation on a local scale, while shorter events usually result in ablation (on average 17 and 12 h respectively). A large part of the accumulation at the station takes place when preceding snowfall events were occurring in synoptic upstream areas. This fresh snow is easily picked up and transported in shallow drifting snow layers over tens of kilometres, even when wind speeds are relatively low ( < 7 ms-1). Ablation events are mainly related to katabatic winds originating from the Antarctic plateau and the mountain ranges in the south. These dry winds are able to remove snow and lead to a decrease in the local SMB. This work highlights that the local SMB is strongly influenced by synoptic upstream conditions.

The effects of implementing synoptic pathology reporting in cancer diagnosis: a systematic review.

PubMed

Sluijter, Caro E; van Lonkhuijzen, Luc R C W; van Slooten, Henk-Jan; Nagtegaal, Iris D; Overbeek, Lucy I H

2016-06-01

Pathology reporting is evolving from a traditional narrative report to a more structured synoptic report. Narrative reporting can cause misinterpretation due to lack of information and structure. In this systematic review, we evaluate the impact of synoptic reporting on completeness of pathology reports and quality of pathology evaluation for solid tumours. Pubmed, Embase and Cochrane databases were systematically searched to identify studies describing the effect of synoptic reporting implementation on completeness of reporting and quality of pathology evaluation of solid malignant tumours. Thirty-three studies met the inclusion criteria. All studies, except one, reported an increased overall completeness of pathology reports after introduction of synoptic reporting (SR). Most frequently studied cancers were breast (n = 9) and colorectal cancer (n = 16). For breast cancer, narrative reports adequately described 'tumour type' and 'nodal status'. Synoptic reporting resulted in improved description of 'resection margins', 'DCIS size', 'location' and 'presence of calcifications'. For colorectal cancer, narrative reports adequately reported 'tumour type', 'invasion depth', 'lymph node counts' and 'nodal status'. Synoptic reporting resulted in increased reporting of 'circumferential margin', 'resection margin', 'perineural invasion' and 'lymphovascular invasion'. In addition, increased numbers of reported lymph nodes were found in synoptic reports. Narrative reports of other cancer types described the traditional parameters adequately, whereas for 'resection margins' and '(lympho)vascular/perineural invasion', implementation of synoptic reporting was necessary. Synoptic reporting results in improved reporting of clinical relevant data. Demonstration of clinical impact of this improved method of pathology reporting is required for successful introduction and implementation in daily pathology practice.

Synoptic Factors Affecting Structure Predictability of Hurricane Alex (2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Aleman, J. J.; Evans, J. L.; Kowaleski, A. M.

2016-12-01

On January 7, 2016, a disturbance formed over the western North Atlantic basin. After undergoing tropical transition, the system became the first hurricane of 2016 - and the first North Atlantic hurricane to form in January since 1938. Already an extremely rare hurricane event, Alex then underwent extratropical transition [ET] just north of the Azores Islands. We examine the factors affecting Alex's structural evolution through a new technique called path-clustering. In this way, 51 ensembles from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Ensemble Prediction System (ECMWF-EPS) are grouped based on similarities in the storm's path through the Cyclone Phase Space (CPS). The differing clusters group various possible scenarios of structural development represented in the ensemble forecasts. As a result, it is possible to shed light on the role of the synoptic scale in changing the structure of this hurricane in the midlatitudes through intercomparison of the most "realistic" forecast of the evolution of Alex and the other physically plausible modes of its development.

The Meandering Margin of the Meteorological Moist Tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mapes, Brian E.; Chung, Eui Seok; Hannah, Walter M.; Masunaga, Hirohiko; Wimmers, Anthony J.; Velden, Christopher S.

2018-01-01

Bimodally distributed column water vapor (CWV) indicates a well-defined moist regime in the Tropics, above a margin value near 48 kg m-2 in current climate (about 80% of column saturation). Maps reveal this margin as a meandering, sinuous synoptic contour bounding broad plateaus of the moist regime. Within these plateaus, convective storms of distinctly smaller convective and mesoscales occur sporadically. Satellite data composites across the poleward most margin reveal its sharpness, despite the crude averaging: precipitation doubles within 100 km, marked by both enhancement and deepening of cloudiness. Transported patches and filaments of the moist regime cause consequential precipitation events within and beyond the Tropics. Distinguishing synoptic flows that cross the margin from flows that move the margin is made possible by a novel satellite-based Lagrangian CWV tendency estimate. Climate models do not reliably reproduce the observed bimodal distribution, so studying the moist mode's maintenance processes and the margin-zone air mass transformations, guided by the Lagrangian tendency product, might importantly constrain model moist process treatments.

Data from synoptic water-quality studies on the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon, Arizona, November 1990 and June 1991

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, Howard E.; Peart, D.B.; Antweiler, Ronald C.; Brinton, T.I.; Campbell, W.L.; Barbarino, J.R.; Roth, D.A.; Hart, R.J.; Averett, R.C.

1996-01-01

Two water-quality synoptic studies were made on the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon, Arizona. Field measurements and the collection of water samples for laboratory analysis were made at 10 mainstem and 6 tributary sites every 6 hours for a 48-hour period on November 5-6, 1990, and again on June 18-20, 1991. Field measurements included discharge, alkalinity, water temperature, light penetration, pH, specific conductance, and dissolved oxygen. Water samples were collected for the laboratory analysis of major and minor ions (calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, strontium, chloride, sulfate, silica as SiO2), trace elements (aluminum, arsenic, boron, barium, beryllium, cadmium, cobalt, chromium, copper, iron, lead, lithium, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, selenium, thallium, uranium, vanadium and zinc), and nutrients (phosphate, nitrate, ammonium, nitrite, total dissolved nitrogen, total dissolved phosphorus and dissolved organic carbon). Biological measurements included drift (benthic invertebrates and detrital material), and benthic invertebrates from the river bottom.

Water-quality data for the Ohio River from New Cumberland Dam to Pike Island Dam, West Virginia and Ohio, May-October 1993

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, K.F.; Messinger, Terence; Waldron, M.C.; Faulkenburg, C.W.

1996-01-01

This report contains water-quality data for the Ohio River from river mile 51.1 (3.3 miles upstream from New Cumberland Dam) to river mile 84.0 (0.2 miles upstream from Pike Island Dam) that were collected during the summer and fall of 1993. The data were collected to establish the water quality of the Ohio River and to use in assessing the proposed effects of hydropower development on the water quality of the Ohio River. Water quality was determined by a combination of repeated synoptic field measurements, continuous-record monitoring, and laboratory analyses. Synoptic measurements were made along a longitudinal transect with 18 mid-channel sampling sites; cross-sectional transects of water-quality measurements were made at 5 of these sites. Water-quality measurements also were made at two sites located on the back-channel (Ohio) side of Browns Island. At each longitudinal-transect and back-channel sampling site, measurements were made of specific conductance, pH, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen conentration. Longitudinal-transect and back-channel stations were sampled at four depths (at the surface, about 3.3 feet below the surface, middle of the water column, and near the bottom of the river). Cross-sectional transects consisted of three to four detailed vertical profiles of the same characteristics. Water samples were collected from three depths at the mid-channel vertical profile in each cross-sectional transect and were analyzed for concentrations of phytoplankton photosynthetic pigments chlorophyll a and chlorophyll b. Estimates of the depth of light penetration (Secchi-disk transparency) were made at pigment-sampling locations whenever light and river-surface conditions were appropriate. Synoptic sampling usually was completed in 12 hours or less and was repeated 10 times from May through October 1993. Continuous-record monitoring of water quality consisted of hourly measurements of specific conductance, pH, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen concentration, made at a depth of 6.6 feet upstream and downstream of New Cumberland Dam. Continuous monitors were operated from May through October 1993.

Comparative analysis of near-present and future synoptic conditions and their contribution to precipitation in central Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karacostas, Theodore S.; Bampzelis, Dimitrios; Karipidou, Symela; Pytharoulis, Ioannis; Tegoulias, Ioannis; Kartsios, Stergios; Kotsopoulos, Stylianos; Pakalidou, Nikoletta

2015-04-01

The objective on this study is to identify and categorize the daily synoptic circulation patterns encountered between the two periods, in near-present (2001-2010) and future (2041-2050), over the greater area of central and northern Greece, under the "DAPHNE" project (www.daphne-meteo.gr). The followed up statistical analyses and comparisons are focus on the demonstration of the differences in the frequency of occurrences of the synoptic situations between the two time periods, aiming at mitigating drought in central Greece by means of Weather Modification. Actually, within the context of the project, the daily synoptic circulation patterns encountered during the near-present ten-year period are identified and classified according to Karacostas et al. (1992) synoptic classification, into ten distinct synoptic conditions, based on the isobaric level of 500hPa. A similar procedure is adopted for the future period 2041-2050, by developing the mid-tropospheric synoptic circulation patterns through the RegCM3 regional climate model, under the IPCC scenario A1B. Results indicate that certain differences exist between near-present and future frequency distribution of occurrences of the synoptic situations over the study area. The northwest (NW) and southwest (SW) synoptic circulation patterns remain the most frequent synoptic conditions observed for both examined periods. The low pressure system activity over the area exhibit significant decrease during the future period, as it is depicted from the inter-comparison of the frequencies of the closed low (L-2) and cut-off low (L-3) systems. On the other hand, the unorganized synoptic conditions, which are mostly identified as high-low patterns (H-L), appear to increase considerably. The frequencies of zonal flow (ZON) and those of synoptic conditions associated with the presence of high-pressure system over the area, that is (H-1) and (H-2), remain almost unchanged between the two periods. The impact of the aforementioned differences in the frequencies of the synoptic conditions during the future period is examined on a yearly and seasonal basis. The contribution of each synoptic condition on the annual precipitation amounts are estimated for the near-present period, which coupled with the altered frequencies of the synoptic conditions for the future period, result to the future projected annual precipitation amounts. Possible decrease in precipitation amounts is indicated during the future period, as a result of the reduction in the frequencies of certain synoptic conditions associated with high amount of precipitation during the near-present conditions. Acknowledgments: This research work is part of DAPHNE project (11SYN_8_1088_TPE) which is co-funded by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek National Funds, through the action "COOPERATION 2011: Partnerships of Production and Research Institutions in Focused Research and Technology Sectors" in the framework of the operational programme "Competitiveness and Enterpreneurship" and Regions in Transition (OPC II, NSRF 2007-2013).

Atmospheric inputs of organic matter to a forested watershed: Variations from storm to storm over the seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iavorivska, Lidiia; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Miller, Matthew P.; Brown, Michael G.; Vasilopoulos, Terrie; Fuentes, Jose D.; Duffy, Christopher J.

2016-12-01

The objectives of this study were to determine the quantity and chemical composition of precipitation inputs of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to a forested watershed; and to characterize the associated temporal variability. We sampled most precipitation that occurred from May 2012 through August 2013 at the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory (Pennsylvania, USA). Sub-event precipitation samples (159) were collected sequentially during 90 events; covering various types of synoptic meteorological conditions in all climatic seasons. Precipitation DOC concentrations and rates of wet atmospheric DOC deposition were highly variable from storm to storm, ranging from 0.3 to 5.6 mg C L-1 and from 0.5 to 32.8 mg C m-2 h-1, respectively. Seasonally, storms in spring and summer had higher concentrations of DOC and more optically active organic matter than in winter. Higher DOC concentrations resulted from weather types that favor air advection, where cold frontal systems, on average, delivered more than warm/stationary fronts and northeasters. A mixed modeling statistical approach revealed that factors related to storm properties, emission sources, and to the chemical composition of the atmosphere could explain more than 60% of the storm to storm variability in DOC concentrations. This study provided observations on changes in dissolved organic matter that can be useful in modeling of atmospheric oxidative chemistry, exploring relationships between organics and other elements of precipitation chemistry, and in considering temporal changes in ecosystem nutrient balances and microbial activity.

STREAMBED PARTICLE SIZE FROM PEBBLE COUNTS USING VISUALLY ESTIMATED SIZE CLSASES: JUNK OR USEFUL DATA?

EPA Science Inventory

In large-scale studies, it is often neither feasible nor necessary to obtain the large samples of 400 particles advocated by many geomorphologists to adequately quantify streambed surface particle-size distributions. Synoptic surveys such as U.S. Environmental Protection Agency...

Synoptic analysis of heat waves in the Barcelona city (Catalonia, Spain) during 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amaro, Jéssica; Peña, Juan Carlos; Miró, Josep Ramon; Aran, Montserrat

2017-04-01

The impact of extremely warm episodes on health has been analysed by a large number of studies conducted in different countries and cities, showing that heat waves events (HWE) can cause an abrupt increase in mortality. A HWE was defined as a 7-day sequence following a key-day labelled by the 95th percentile of Barcelona daily mortality (see Peña et al., 2015). The aim of this study is to identify synoptic patterns associated to HWE in Barcelona over the 21st century and evaluate the impact and possible mitigations. To achieve it, a multivariate analysis (MVA) integrating different atmospheric levels (sea level pressure, temperature at 850 hPa and geopotential at 500 hPa) was undertaken. The observed data used for this study was the 20th Century Reanalysis. The Max Planck Institute Earth system model was used to study two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) during the 21st century. The model was calibrated given the variability in the climate scenario, using the Quantile-Quantile mapping transformation (Q-Q). The MVA applied to the observed period (1990-2015) distinguish three main synoptic patterns: two dynamic configurations produced by southern fluxes related to an Atlantic low, associated with HWE recorded in southern Europe, and a third pattern identified by a stagnation situation related to persistent anticyclone periods. These patterns were also detected in the control simulated period (1961-2005) after the Q-Q calibration, preserving, therefore, the climatic variability: the number of HWE during the warm period (1990-2005) is twice more than during the cold period (1976-1989) due to an intensification of the warm masses. In the RCP 4.5 scenario (2006-2100 period) a positive and significant trend is shown in synoptic patterns which provoke HWE in Barcelona, especially during August; in the RCP 8.5 scenario there is no significant trend, but the intensification of the warm masses is higher.

The role of synoptic weather variability in Greenland ice sheet dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, J. M.; Radic, V.

2017-12-01

Much of the large uncertainty in predictions of future global sea level rise is due to our limited understanding of Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) motion and its interactions with climate. Over the next century, climate models predict that the GrIS will experience not only gradual warming, but also changes in atmospheric circulation, hydrology, and weather, including a northward shift of the North Atlantic storm track, with greater frequency and intensity of rain storms over the GrIS. Recent studies of GrIS dynamics have focused on the effects of increased seasonal mean meltwater on ice velocities, finding only a modest impact due to compensation by subglacial drainage systems, but subglacial hydraulic theory indicates that variability on shorter timescales is also relevant: short-term surges in meltwater or rainfall can overload drainage systems at rates faster than they can adjust, leading to water pressure spikes and ice acceleration. If the magnitude or frequency of these transient ice accelerations increase substantially as synoptic weather patterns change over the next century, there could be a significant cumulative impact on seasonal mean ice velocities. However, this issue has not been addressed in the literature and represents a major source of uncertainty. In this study, we investigate the role of synoptic weather variability in GrIS dynamics, with the ultimate goal of evaluating the relationships between extreme weather events and ice sheet flow in different seasons and regions of the GrIS. As a first step, we apply the machine learning technique of self-organizing maps to atmospheric reanalysis data to categorize the predominant synoptic weather systems over the GrIS domain, evaluating atmospheric moisture transport and rainfall to assess the impacts of each weather system on GrIS surface hydrology. The preliminary results presented here will be used in conjunction with ice velocity satellite measurements in future work, to identify any correlations between seasonal mean GrIS velocities and the frequency or intensity of storms during the season.

Meteorological Drivers of West Antarctic Ice Sheet and Ice Shelf Surface Melt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, R. C.; Nicolas, J. P.; Bromwich, D. H.; Norris, J. R.; Lubin, D.

2017-12-01

We identify synoptic patterns and surface energy balance components driving warming and surface melting on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and ice shelves using reanalysis and satellite remote sensing data from 1973-present. We have developed a synoptic climatology of atmospheric circulation patterns during the summer melt season using k-means cluster and composite analysis of daily 700-mb geopotential height and near-surface air temperature and wind fields from the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis. Surface melt occurrence is detected in satellite passive microwave brightness temperature observations (K-band, horizontal polarization) beginning with the NASA Nimbus-5 Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer (ESMR) and continuing with its more familiar descendants SMMR, SSM/I and SSMIS. To diagnose synoptic precursors and physical processes driving surface melt we combine the circulation climatology and multi-decadal records of cloud cover with surface radiative fluxes from the Extended AVHRR Polar Pathfinder (APP-x) project. We identify three distinct modes of regional summer West Antarctic warming since 1979 involving anomalous ridging over West Antarctica (WA) and the Amundsen Sea (AS). During the 1970s, ESMR data reveal four extensive melt events on the Ross Sea sector of the WAIS also linked to AS blocking. We therefore define an Amundsen Sea Blocking Index (ASBI). The ASBI and synoptic circulation pattern occurrence frequencies are correlated with the tropical Pacific (ENSO) and high latitude Southern Annular Mode (SAM) indices and the West Antarctic melt index. Surface melt in WA is favored by enhanced downwelling infrared and turbulent sensible heat fluxes associated with intrusions of warm, moist marine air. Consistent with recent findings from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE), marine advection to the Ross sector is favored by El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific and a negative SAM. We also find that El Niño-related blocking favors warming and melting on the marine-based ice streams draining from Wilkes Basin, East Antarctica.

Extremely Soft X-Ray Flash as the Indicator of Off-axis Orphan GRB Afterglow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urata, Yuji; Huang, Kuiyun; Yamazaki, Ryo; Sakamoto, Takanori

2015-06-01

We verified the off-axis jet model of X-ray flashes (XRFs) and examined a discovery of off-axis orphan gamma-ray burst (GRB) afterglows. The XRF sample was selected on the basis of the following three factors: (1) a constraint on the lower peak energy of the prompt spectrum {E}{obs}{src}, (2) redshift measurements, and (3) multicolor observations of an earlier (or brightening) phase. XRF 020903 was the only sample selected on the basis of these criteria. A complete optical multicolor afterglow light curve of XRF 020903 obtained from archived data and photometric results in the literature showed an achromatic brightening around 0.7 days. An off-axis jet model with a large observing angle (0.21 rad, which is twice the jet opening half-angle, {θ }{jet}) can naturally describe the achromatic brightening and the prompt X-ray spectral properties. This result indicates the existence of off-axis orphan GRB afterglow light curves. Events with a larger viewing angle (\\gt ∼ 2{θ }{jet}) could be discovered using an 8 m class telescope with wide-field imagers such as the Subaru Hyper-Suprime-Cam and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope.

Relationship between incidence of gastric dilatation-volvulus and biometeorologic events in a population of military working dogs.

PubMed

Herbold, John R; Moore, George E; Gosch, Terry L; Bell, B Sue

2002-01-01

To calculate the monthly incidence of gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) in a population of military working dogs during a 5-year period and determine whether there was an association with synoptic climatologic indices. Medical records of all military working dogs housed at Lackland Air Force Base,Tex, from Jan 1, 1993 to Dec 31, 1997. Confirmed cases of GDV were identified from evaluation of medical records and used to calculate incidence of GDV. Factor analysis of local climatologic data was used to classify each day into 1 of 8 meteorologically homogeneous types of days for this location. Occurrence of GDV was compared with frequency of occurrence of synoptic climatologic days. 48 cases of GDV were identified from January 1993 through December 1997 Mean monthly incidence was 2.5 cases/1,000 dogs at risk (range, 0 to 18.5 cases/1,000 dogs; median, 2.5 cases/1,000 dogs). A seasonal increase in incidence of GDV was detected, because half of the episodes were during November, December, and January. An association with a specific synoptic climatologic day was not detected. Seasonal fluctuations in incidence of GDV may be associated with external factors that precipitate physiologic changes resulting in GDV. Although a specific cause-effect relationship was not documented, clinicians must be alert for the potential of seasonal variation in incidence of GDV and accordingly heighten their index of suspicion for the condition, particularly in populations of dogs that are predisposed to development of GDV.

Synoptic analysis and hindcast of an intense bow echo in Western Europe: The 09 June 2014 storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathias, Luca; Ermert, Volker; Kelemen, Fanni D.; Ludwig, Patrick; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2017-04-01

On Pentecost Monday of 09 June 2014, a severe mesoscale convective system (MCS) hit Belgium and Western Germany. This storm was one of the most severe thunderstorms in Germany for decades. The synoptic-scale and mesoscale characteristics of this storm are analyzed based on remote sensing data and in-situ measurements. Moreover, the forecast potential of the storm is evaluated using sensitivity experiments with a regional climate model. The key ingredients for the development of the Pentecost storm were the concurrent presence of low-level moisture, atmospheric conditional instability and wind shear. The synoptic and mesoscale analysis shows that the outflow of a decaying MCS above northern France triggered the storm, which exhibited the typical features of a bow echo like a mesovortex and rear inflow jet. This resulted in hurricane-force wind gusts (reaching 40 m/s) along a narrow swath in the Rhine-Ruhr region leading to substantial damage. Operational numerical weather predictions models mostly failed to forecast the storm, but high-resolution regional model hindcasts enable a realistic simulation of the storm. The model experiments reveal that the development of the bow echo is particularly sensitive to the initial wind field and the lower tropospheric moisture content. Correct initial and boundary conditions are therefore necessary for realistic numerical forecasts of such a bow echo event. We conclude that the Pentecost storm exhibited a comparable structure and a similar intensity to the observed bow echo systems in the United States.

7Be behaviour and meteorological conditions associated with 7Be peak events in Spain.

PubMed

Hernández-Ceballos, M A; Brattich, E; Lozano, R L; Cinelli, G

2017-01-01

This work regards a comprehensive analysis of the overall distribution of 7 Be activity concentrations in Spain and the synoptic meteorological conditions associated with the highest 7 Be peaks (>8 mBq/m 3 ). The use of four sampling stations (Barcelona, Bilbao, Madrid, and Sevilla) included in REMdb, with different latitudinal location, as well as the relatively long time period used in this study (2001-2010), allowed to improve the understanding of 7 Be spatio-temporal distribution in Spain. The comparison of the 7 Be activity concentrations mean values indicated a north-south gradient (from 3.1 ± 1.1 mBq/m 3 in Bilbao to 4.0 ± 1.8 mBq/m 3 in Sevilla), even though not statistically significant (as indicated by the t-test). However, the analysis of frequency distributions and temporal evolutions of 7 Be activity concentrations have suggested the presence of two main areas, namely northern (Bilbao and Barcelona) and southern (Sevilla) Spain. The identification and analysis of periods associated with the highest values of 7 Be have allowed studying the different synoptic patterns associated with stratospheric-tropospheric transport (STT). In particular, three episodes (one in the north and two in the south) potentially associated with vigorous STT have been identified and analysed in detail. The results displayed that the omega block configuration, extending either over western Russia and Scandinavia or into the Atlantic Ocean, forced the prevailing jet stream to the northeast and south of Spain respectively with subsequent subsidence. In summer, this blocking configuration at high latitudes was combined with the presence of the Azores high pressure system to the west of Spain, affecting the 7 Be activity concentration recorded in the south. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Source Attribution and Interannual Variability of Arctic Pollution in Spring Constrained by Aircraft (ARCTAS, ARCPAC) and Satellite (AIRS) Observations of Carbon Monoxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, J. A.; Jacob, D. J.; Purdy, M. T.; Kopacz, M.; LeSager, P.; Carouge, C.; Holmes, C. D.; Yantosca, R. M.; Batchelor, R. L.; Strong, K.;

CENTER FOR CLIMATIC RESEARCH, UNIVERSITY OF DELAWARE

EPA Science Inventory

The synoptic climatology group performs research into a variety of applied climatological issues that affect humans and other organisms around the world. Synoptic climatology is essentially an holistic approach to weather and climate. Synoptic climatologists attempt to characteri...

A preliminary look at AVE-SESAME 5 conducted on 20-21 May 1979

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

July, M.; Turner, R. E.

1981-01-01

Information on data collected, synoptic conditions, and severe and unusual weather reported during the period are presented. Records of the synoptic conditions include synoptic charts, radar charts, satellite photographs, and rainfall observations.

Heavy precipitation events in northern Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannakaki, Paraskevi; Martius, Olivia

2013-04-01

Heavy precipitation events in the Alpine region often cause floods, rock-falls and mud slides with severe consequences for population and economy. Breaking synoptic Rossby waves located over western Europe, play a central role in triggering such heavy rain events in southern Switzerland (e.g. Massacand et al. 1998). In contrast, synoptic scale structures triggering heavy precipitation on the north side of the Swiss Alps and orographic effects have so far not been studied comprehensively. An observation based high resolution precipitation data set for Switzerland and the Alps (MeteoSwiss) is used to identify heavy precipitation events affecting the north side of the Swiss Alps for the time period 1961-2010. For these events a detailed statistical and dynamical analysis of the upper level flow is conducted using ECMWFs ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalysis data sets. For the analysis north side of the Swiss Alps is divided in two investigation areas north-eastern and western Switzerland following the Swiss climate change scenarios (Bey et al. 2011). A subjective classification of upper level structures triggering heavy precipitation events in the areas of interest is presented. Four classes are defined based on the orientation and formation of the dynamical tropopause during extreme events in the northern part of Switzerland and its sub-regions. The analysis is extended by a climatology of breaking waves and cut-offs following the method of Wernli and Sprenger (2007) to examine their presence and location during extreme events. References Bey I., Croci-Maspoli M., Fuhrer J., Kull C, Appenzeller C., Knutti R. and Schär C. Swiss Climate Change Scenarios CH2011, C2SM, MeteoSwiss, ETH, NCCR Climate, OcCC (2011), http://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-006720559 Massacand A., H. Wernli, and H.C. Davies, 1998. Heavy precipitation on the Alpine South side: An upper-level precursor. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1435-1438. MeteoSwiss 2011. Documentation of Meteoswiss grid-data products, daily precipitation (final analysis): Rhiresd. Available at: http://www.meteosuisse.admin.ch/web/en/services/data_portal/gridded_datasets/precip.html Wernli. H., and M. Sprenger, 2007. Identification and ERA-15 climatology of potential vorticity streamers and cutoffs near the extratropical tropopause. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 1569-1586.

Problems and Issues Across Institutions and Programs

Treesearch

Douglas Powell; Jim Wood

2006-01-01

The symposium identified the major barriers to collaboration among institutions and programs. This synthesis, while admittedly drawing from only a sample of the papers presented, provides a synoptic view of the major recurring themes voiced by participants.Several overarching statements were voiced. No one institution or one program in isolation can...

On the role of successive downstream development in East Asian polar air outbreaks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jung, C. H.; Hitchman, M. H.

1982-01-01

Common features were drawn from 16 events of wintertime migration of cold Siberian air moving southeastward across the east Asia coast, accompanied by strong northerly winds. Criteria for including an event as an instance of a typical synoptic scale occurrence comprised a surface pressure gradient over Korea exceeding 2.5 mb/100 km, and a drop in the daily mean temperature of over 5 C in one day. The events were required to have at least a 10 day separation. A sequence of events was discerned, including the formation of troughs and ridges over the western north Atlantic 6-7 days before an event, their development and decay downstream from one another across the Eurasian continent, and then an outbreak of polar weather. The troughs and ridges displayed maximum amplitude in the same places in the majority of cases studied, with the center moving along a curved trajectory of the 300 mb flow at nearly 30 deg longitudinally every day.

Oxidizing and Scavenging Characteristics of April Rains - OSCAR data report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Benkovitz, C.M.; Evans, V.A.; Tichler, J.L.

The organization of this report is as follows: Chapter 1 presents a description of the OSCAR experiment, including its objectives, design, and field deployment. Chapter 2 presents the OSCAR Central Data Coordination function and summarizes the tasks needed to compile each data set. Chapters 3 through 6 address each of the four OSCAR events. A synoptic description of each event is presented in these chapters, followed by a summary of the data captured during the event. Chapter 3 and Appendices C-G then present detailed tabular and graphical displays of the data captured during this event by the intermediate-density precipitation chemistrymore » network, the BNL aircraft and the surface air chemistry measurements conducted by BNL and by state/province agency networks. Data from the high-density precipitation chemistry network are being presented in a separate series of reports by Pacific Northwest Laboratory. Detailed displays of the data for events 2 to 4 have not been included in this report; however, selected portions could be developed for interested parties.« less

Hydrometeorological Analysis of Flooding Events in San Antonio, TX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chintalapudi, S.; Sharif, H.; Elhassan, A.

2008-12-01

South Central Texas is particularly vulnerable to floods due to: proximity to a moist air source (the Gulf of Mexico); the Balcones Escarpment, which concentrates rainfall runoff; a tendency for synoptic scale features to become cut-off and stall over the area; and decaying tropical cyclones stalling over the area. The San Antonio Metropolitan Area is the 7th largest city in the nation, one of the most flash-flood prone regions in North America, and has experienced a number of flooding events in the last decade (1998, 2002, 2004, and 2007). Research is being conducted to characterize the meteorological conditions that lead to these events and apply the rainfall and watershed characteristics data to recreate the runoff events using a two- dimensional, physically-based, distributed-parameter hydrologic model. The physically based, distributed-parameter Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) hydrological model was used for simulating the watershed response to these storm events. Finally observed discharges were compared to GSSHA model discharges for these storm events. Analysis of the some of these events will be presented.

On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdon-Kidd, D. C.; Kiem, A. S.

2009-04-01

In this paper regional (synoptic) and large-scale climate drivers of rainfall are investigated for Victoria, Australia. A non-linear classification methodology known as self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify 20 key regional synoptic patterns, which are shown to capture a range of significant synoptic features known to influence the climate of the region. Rainfall distributions are assigned to each of the 20 patterns for nine rainfall stations located across Victoria, resulting in a clear distinction between wet and dry synoptic types at each station. The influence of large-scale climate modes on the frequency and timing of the regional synoptic patterns is also investigated. This analysis revealed that phase changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and/or the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are associated with a shift in the relative frequency of wet and dry synoptic types on an annual to inter-annual timescale. In addition, the relative frequency of synoptic types is shown to vary on a multi-decadal timescale, associated with changes in the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Importantly, these results highlight the potential to utilise the link between the regional synoptic patterns derived in this study and large-scale climate modes to improve rainfall forecasting for Victoria, both in the short- (i.e. seasonal) and long-term (i.e. decadal/multi-decadal scale). In addition, the regional and large-scale climate drivers identified in this study provide a benchmark by which the performance of Global Climate Models (GCMs) may be assessed.

ERRATUM: “Automated Transient Identi cation in the Dark Energy Survey” (2015, AJ, 150, 82)

DOE PAGES

Goldstein, D. A.; D’Andrea, C. B.; Fischer, J. A.; ...

2015-08-20

Here, we describe an algorithm for identifying point-source transients and moving objects on reference-subtracted optical images containing artifacts of processing and instrumentation. The algorithm makes use of the supervised machine learning technique known as Random Forest. We present results from its use in the Dark Energy Survey Supernova program (DES-SN), where it was trained using a sample of 898,963 signal and background events generated by the transient detection pipeline. After reprocessing the data collected during the first DES-SN observing season (2013 September through 2014 February) using the algorithm, the number of transient candidates eligible for human scanning decreased by amore » factor of 13.4, while only 1.0% of the artificial Type Ia supernovae (SNe) injected into search images to monitor survey efficiency were lost, most of which were very faint events. Here we characterize the algorithm's performance in detail, and we discuss how it can inform pipeline design decisions for future time-domain imaging surveys, such as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope and the Zwicky Transient Facility. An implementation of the algorithm and the training data used in this paper are available at at http://portal.nersc.gov/project/dessn/autoscan.« less

Characterizing relationships among fecal indicator bacteria ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Bed sediments of streams and rivers may store high concentrations of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) and pathogens. Due to resuspension events, these contaminants can be mobilized into the water column and affect overall water quality. Other bacterial indicators such as microbial source tracking (MST) markers, developed to determine potential sources of fecal contamination, can also be resuspended from bed sediments. The primary objective of this study was to predict occurrence of waterborne pathogens in water and streambed sediments using a simple statistical model that includes traditionally measured FIB, environmental parameters and source allocation, using MST markers as predictor variables. Synoptic sampling events were conducted during baseflow conditions downstream from agricultural (AG), forested (FORS), and wastewater pollution control plant (WPCP) land uses. Concentrations of FIB and MST markers were measured in water and sediments, along with occurrences of the enteric pathogens Campylobacter, Listeria and Salmonella, and the virulence gene that carries Shiga toxin, stx2. Pathogens were detected in water more often than in underlying sediments. Shiga toxin was significantly related to land use, with concentrations of the ruminant marker selected as an independent variable that could correctly classify 76% and 64% of observed Shiga toxin occurrences in water and sediment, respectively. FIB concentrations and water quality parameters were also selected a

Inter-Annual Variability of the Acoustic Propagation in the Mediterranean Sea Identified from a Synoptic Monthly Gridded Database as Compared with GDEM

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

VARIABILITY OF THE ACOUSTIC PROPAGATION IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA IDENTIFIED FROM A SYNOPTIC MONTHLY GRIDDED DATABASE AS COMPARED WITH GDEM by...ANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE ACOUSTIC PROPAGATION IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA IDENTIFIED FROM A SYNOPTIC MONTHLY GRIDDED DATABASE AS COMPARED WITH GDEM 5...profiles obtained from the synoptic monthly gridded World Ocean Database (SMD-WOD) and Generalized Digital Environmental Model (GDEM) temperature (T

On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdon-Kidd, D.; Kiem, A. S.

2008-10-01

In this paper regional (synoptic) and large-scale climate drivers of rainfall are investigated for Victoria, Australia. A non-linear classification methodology known as self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify 20 key regional synoptic patterns, which are shown to capture a range of significant synoptic features known to influence the climate of the region. Rainfall distributions are assigned to each of the 20 patterns for nine rainfall stations located across Victoria, resulting in a clear distinction between wet and dry synoptic types at each station. The influence of large-scale climate modes on the frequency and timing of the regional synoptic patterns is also investigated. This analysis revealed that phase changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and/or Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are associated with a shift in the relative frequency of wet and dry synoptic types. Importantly, these results highlight the potential to utilise the link between the regional synoptic patterns derived in this study and large-scale climate modes to improve rainfall forecasting for Victoria, both in the short- (i.e. seasonal) and long-term (i.e. decadal/multi-decadal scale). In addition, the regional and large-scale climate drivers identified in this study provide a benchmark by which the performance of Global Climate Models (GCMs) may be assessed.

Continuous and discrete water-quality data collected at five sites on Lake Houston near Houston, Texas, 2006-08

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beussink, Amy M.; Burnich, Michael R.

2009-01-01

Lake Houston, a reservoir impounded in 1954 by the City of Houston, Texas, is a primary source of drinking water for Houston and surrounding areas. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Houston, developed a continuous water-quality monitoring network to track daily changes in water quality in the southwestern quadrant of Lake Houston beginning in 2006. Continuous water-quality data (the physiochemical properties water temperature, specific conductance, pH, dissolved oxygen concentration, and turbidity) were collected from Lake Houston to characterize the in-lake processes that affect water quality. Continuous data were collected hourly from mobile, multi-depth monitoring stations developed and constructed by the U.S. Geological Survey. Multi-depth monitoring stations were installed at five sites in three general locations in the southwestern quadrant of the lake. Discrete water-quality data (samples) were collected routinely (once or twice each month) at all sites to characterize the chemical and biological (phytoplankton and bacteria) response to changes in the continuous water-quality properties. Physiochemical properties (the five continuously monitored plus transparency) were measured in the field when samples were collected. In addition to the routine samples, discrete water-quality samples were collected synoptically (one or two times during the study period) at all sites to determine the presence and levels of selected constituents not analyzed in routine samples. Routine samples were measured or analyzed for acid neutralizing capacity; selected major ions and trace elements (calcium, silica, and manganese); nutrients (filtered and total ammonia nitrogen, filtered nitrate plus nitrite nitrogen, total nitrate nitrogen, filtered and total nitrite nitrogen, filtered and total orthophosphate phosphorus, total phosphorus, total nitrogen, total organic carbon); fecal indicator bacteria (total coliform and Escherichia coli); sediment (suspended-sediment concentration and loss-on-ignition); actinomycetes bacteria; taste-and-odor-causing compounds (2-methylisoborneol and geosmin); cyanobacterial toxins (total microcystins); and phytoplankton abundance, biovolume, and community composition (taxonomic identification to genus). Synoptic samples were analyzed for major ions, trace elements, wastewater indicators, pesticides, volatile organic compounds, and carbon. The analytical data are presented in tables by type (continuous, discrete routine, discrete synoptic) and listed by station number. Continuously monitored properties (except pH) also are displayed graphically.

Episodic inputs of atmospheric nitrogen to the Sargasso Sea: Contributions to new production and phytoplankton blooms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Michaels, A.F.; Johnson, R.J.; Siegel, D.A.

1993-06-01

This paper compares a recent atmospheric wet deposition record (including all measurable daily rainfall events between October 1988 and June 1991) with concurrent measurements of nitrogen cycling and biomass at the U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time Series Study station. The two data sets, among the most complete synoptic records of atmospheric nitrogen deposition and ocean nitrogen cycling, provide an opportunity to directly assess the importance of nitrogen deposition in the ocean. The results indicate that individual nitrogen wet deposition events are usually small compared to the ambient nitrogen cycle and that only under sustained calm conditionsmore » following large deposition events will nitrogen deposition processes be an important signal for the understanding of ocean biochemistry. 46 refs., 7 figs.« less

Circulation, mixing, and transport in nearshore Lake Erie in the vicinity of Villa Angela Beach and Euclid Creek, Cleveland, Ohio, September 11-12, 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jackson, P. Ryan

2013-01-01

Villa Angela Beach, on the Lake Erie lakeshore near Cleveland, Ohio, is adjacent to the mouth of Euclid Creek, a small, flashy stream draining approximately 23 square miles and susceptible to periodic contamination from combined sewer overflows (CSOs) (97 and 163 CSO events in 2010 and 2011, respectively). Concerns over high concentrations of Escherichia coli (E. coli) in water samples taken along this beach and frequent beach closures led to the collection of synoptic data in the nearshore area in an attempt to gain insights into mixing processes, circulation, and the potential for transport of bacteria and other CSO-related pollutants from various sources in Euclid Creek and along the lakefront. An integrated synoptic survey was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey on September 11–12, 2012, during low-flow conditions on Euclid Creek, which followed rain-induced high flows in the creek on September 8–9, 2012. Data-collection methods included deployment of an autonomous underwater vehicle and use of a manned boat equipped with an acoustic Doppler current profiler. Spatial distributions of water-quality measures and nearshore currents indicated that the mixing zone encompassing the mouth of Euclid Creek and Villa Angela Beach is dynamic and highly variable in extent, but can exhibit a large zone of recirculation that can, at times, be decoupled from local wind forcing. Observed circulation patterns during September 2012 indicated that pollutants from CSOs in Euclid Creek and water discharged from three shoreline CSO points within 2,000 feet of the beach could be trapped along Villa Angela Beach by interaction of nearshore currents and shoreline structures. In spite of observed coastal downwelling, denser water from Euclid Creek is shown to mix to the surface via offshore turbulent structures that span the full depth of flow. While the southwesterly longshore currents driving the recirculation pattern along the beach front were observed during the 2011–12 synoptic surveys, longshore currents with a southwesterly component capable of establishing the recirculation only occurred about 30 percent of the time from June 7 to October 6, 2012, based on continuous velocity data collected near Villa Angela Beach.

Chemistry of groundwater discharge inferred from longitudinal river sampling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batlle-Aguilar, J.; Harrington, G. A.; Leblanc, M.; Welch, C.; Cook, P. G.

2014-02-01

We present an approach for identifying groundwater discharge chemistry and quantifying spatially distributed groundwater discharge into rivers based on longitudinal synoptic sampling and flow gauging of a river. The method is demonstrated using a 450 km reach of a tropical river in Australia. Results obtained from sampling for environmental tracers, major ions, and selected trace element chemistry were used to calibrate a steady state one-dimensional advective transport model of tracer distribution along the river. The model closely reproduced river discharge and environmental tracer and chemistry composition along the study length. It provided a detailed longitudinal profile of groundwater inflow chemistry and discharge rates, revealing that regional fractured mudstones in the central part of the catchment contributed up to 40% of all groundwater discharge. Detailed analysis of model calibration errors and modeled/measured groundwater ion ratios elucidated that groundwater discharging in the top of the catchment is a mixture of local groundwater and bank storage return flow, making the method potentially useful to differentiate between local and regional sourced groundwater discharge. As the error in tracer concentration induced by a flow event applies equally to any conservative tracer, we show that major ion ratios can still be resolved with minimal error when river samples are collected during transient flow conditions. The ability of the method to infer groundwater inflow chemistry from longitudinal river sampling is particularly attractive in remote areas where access to groundwater is limited or not possible, and for identification of actual fluxes of salts and/or specific contaminant sources.

The useful potential of using existing data to uniquely identify predictable wind events and regimes, part 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trettel, D. W.; Aquino, J. T.; Piazza, T. R.; Taylor, L. E.; Trask, D. C.

1982-01-01

Correlations between standard meteorological data and wind power generation potential were developed. Combined with appropriate wind forecasts, these correlations can be useful to load dispatchers to supplement conventional energy sources. Hourly wind data were analyzed for four sites, each exhibiting a unique physiography. These sites are Amarillo, Texas; Ludington, Michigan; Montauk Point, New York; and San Gorgonio, California. Synoptic weather maps and tables are presented to illustrate various wind 'regimes' at these sites.

An observational analysis of a derecho in South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Rudi; Wang, Donghai; Sun, Jianhua; Wang, Gaili; Xia, Guancong

2012-12-01

Derechos occur frequently in Europe and the United States, but reports of derechos in China are scarce. In this paper, radar, satellite, and surface observation data are used to analyze a derecho event in South China on 17 April 2011. A derecho-producing mesoscale convective system formed in an environment with medium convective available energy, strong vertical wind shear, and a dry layer in the middle troposphere, and progressed southward in tandem with a front and a surface wind convergence line. The windstorm can be divided into two stages according to differences in the characteristics of the radar echo and the causes of the gale. One stage was a supercell stage, in which the sinking rear inflow of a high-precipitation supercell with a bow-shaped radar echo induced a Fujita F0 class gale. The other stage was a non-supercell stage (the echo was sequentially kidney-shaped, foot-shaped, and an ordinary single cell), in which downbursts induced a gale in Fujita F1 class. This derecho event had many similarities with derechos observed in western countries. For example, the windstorm was perpendicular to the mean flow, the gale was located in the bulging portion of the bow echo, and the derecho moved southward along with the surface front. Some differences were observed as well. The synoptic-scale forcing was weak in the absence of an advancing high-amplitude midlevel trough and an accompanying strong surface cyclone; however, the vertical wind shear was very strong, a characteristic typical of derechos associated with strong synoptic-scale forcing. Extremely high values of convective available potential energy and downdraft convective available potential energy have previously been considered necessary to the formation of weak-forcing archetype and hybrid derechos; however, these values were much less than 2000 J during this derecho event.

Synoptic-scale dust transport events in the southern Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duchi, R.; Cristofanelli, P.; Marinoni, A.; Bourcier, L.; Laj, P.; Calzolari, F.; Adhikary, B.; Verza, G. P.; Vuillermoz, E.; Bonasoni, P.

2014-06-01

The variability of long-range dust transport events observed in the southern Himalaya and its relation with source areas have been studied thanks to five years’ continuous measurements which were carried out at the “Nepal Climate Observatory-Pyramid” (NCO-P, 27°57‧N, 86°48‧E), the highest Northern Hemisphere GAW-WMO global station sited at 5079 m a.s.l. in the high Khumbu valley (Nepal) on the southern Himalaya. During the period March 2006-February 2011, the analyses of the aerosol particle concentrations and LAGRANTO three-dimensional backward trajectories indicated the occurrence of 275 days affected by synoptic-scale dust transport, which account for 22.2% of the investigated period. The frequency of dust transport days (DTDs) showed a clear seasonal cycle, with the highest seasonal value observed during pre-monsoon season (33.5% of the pre-monsoon’s days are DTDs). Large enhancements in coarse aerosol number concentration N1-10 (average: +689%) and mass PM1-10 (average: +1086%) were observed during the dust transport events as compared to the days without dust (dust-free days, DFDs). In addition, the single scattering albedo (SSA) also showed higher values, ranging from 0.87 to 0.90, during DTDs with respect to DFDs (0.80-0.87). The predominant source of mineral dust reaching the measurement site was identified in the arid regions of the north-western Indian subcontinent (Thar desert), which accounted for 41.6% of the trajectories points associated with DTDs. Seasonal analysis also indicated that the winter season was significantly influenced by far western desert regions, such as North Africa and the Arabic Peninsula.

Heavy Thunderstorm Synoptic Climatology and Forcing Mechanisms in Saudi Arabia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghulam, Ayman S.

2010-05-01

Meteorologists are required to provide accurate and comprehensive weather information for planning and operational aviation, agricultural, water projects and also for the public. In general, weather phenomena such as thunderstorms over the area between the tropics and the middle latitudes are not fully understood, particularly in the Middle East area, for many reasons such as: 1) the complexity of the nature of the climate due to the wide-ranging diversity in the topography and landscape in the area; 2) the lack of meteorological data in the area; and 3) the lack of studies on local weather situations. In arid regions such as Saudi Arabia, the spatial and temporal variation of thunderstorms and associated rainfall are essential in determining their effects on social and economic conditions. Thunderstorms form rapidly, due to the fact that the significant heating of the air from the surface and the ensuing rainfall usually occurs within a short period of time. Thus, understanding thunderstorms and rainfall distribution in time and space would be useful for hydrologists, meteorologists and for environmental studies. Research all over the world has shown, however, that consideration of local factors like Low Level Jets (LLJ), moisture flux, sea breezes, and the Red Sea Convergence Zone (RSCZ) would be valuable in thunderstorm prediction. The combined effects of enhanced low-level moisture convergence and layer destabilization due to upslope flow over mountainous terrain has been shown to be responsible for thunderstorm development in otherwise non-favourable conditions. However, there might be other synoptic features associated with heavy thunderstorms or cause them, but these features have not been investigated in any research in Saudi Arabia. Thus, relating the local weather and synoptic situations with those over the middle latitudes will provide a valuable background for the forecasters to issue the medium-range forecasts which are important for many projects. These forecasts become possible when the movement and the development of the mid-latitude disturbances are known very well. To further increase our understanding of the inter-annual variability of thunderstorms in semi-arid areas such as Saudi Arabia, it is necessary to consider the relationship between this variability and the large-scale atmospheric parameters in addition to the geographical features. Moreover, better insight into the monthly variations of the synoptic situations in Saudi Arabia is considered to be important for understanding the broad mechanisms responsible for thunderstorm occurrences in this geographical area. This information is highly important for aviation and other sectors in Saudi Arabia - both public and private. This paper aims to investigate the favourable synoptic environments for heavy thunderstorm initiation and development in Saudi Arabia. The importance of the monthly synoptic analysis of all days (1998-2003), heavy thunderstorm days, and dry days was intended to be demonstrated. Therefore, the monthly mean charts and deviations from the mean (anomalies) of specific meteorological parameters for heavy thunderstorm days and dry days for the months of January-December for the period 1998-2003, was illustrated to examine the synoptic conditions leading to heavy thunderstorm events in Saudi Arabia.

A synoptic climatology of desert dust deposition to the alpine snowpack in the San Juan Mountains, Colorado, U.S.A.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McBride, K.; Painter, T.; Landry, C.

2005-12-01

Currently, collaborative research is underway in the San Juan Mountains to study the radiative and hydrologic effects of desert dust deposits in alpine snow. The component described here will present preliminary results of the development of a synoptic climatology for winter and spring dust deposition to the alpine snowpack in the San Juan Mountains of southwest Colorado. An understanding of the climatology of dust deposition events will improve our capacity to infer the temporal persistence and magnitude of dust deposition and ultimately its effect on hydrologic and ecological processes in the San Juan Mountains. We use the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model to determine back and forward trajectories of air parcels. The input data were collected at the Putney Data site (3757 m) which has been in use for over 30 years and provides 'free air' wind data as well as ridge crest air temperatures and humidity. Putney lies 2 km SE of the Swamp Angel Study Plot, east of US Highway 550 at Red Mountain Pass. The Swamp Angel Study Plot is one of two extensively instrumented energy balance and radiation sites used in the study and operated by the Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies (CSAS). STILT outputs 3-dimensional probability distributions that describe the potential source regions for air parcels reaching the San Juan Mountains at known times of dust deposition. We analyze 11 dust deposition events that have been documented in snow in the San Juan Mountains or Elk Range of Colorado. One isolated dust event was documented in 1999 in the Elk Range. Subsequently, we have documented the dust deposition events in winters and springs of 2003, 2004, and 2005 in the San Juan Mountains. 2003 and 2004 experienced 3 dust events each but in 2003 the events came in February and April, whereas in 2004 the events came in late April and mid-May. In 2005, of the 4 dust events, the first came in late March, the second and third in early April, and the fourth in early May. There are many similarities in trajectory patterns with some of these events. Preliminary analysis displays a few weather patterns bringing dust into the San Juan Mountains. The source of the dust will more than likely be from several locations with entrainment from source regions in SE Utah, N and NE Arizona, and extreme NW New Mexico. Moreover, winter and spring dust events may include intercontinental transport of dust from Asia.

Simulation and analysis of synoptic scale dust storms over the Arabian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beegum, S. Naseema; Gherboudj, Imen; Chaouch, Naira; Temimi, Marouane; Ghedira, Hosni

2018-01-01

Dust storms are among the most severe environmental problems in arid and semi-arid regions of the world. The predictability of seven dust events, viz. D1: April 2-4, 2014; D2: February 23-24, 2015; D3: April 1-3, 2015; D4: March 26-28, 2016; D5: August 3-5, 2016; D6: March 13-14, 2017 and D7:March 19-21, 2017, are investigated over the Arabian Peninsula using a regionally adapted chemistry transport model CHIMERE coupled with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. The hourly forecast products of particulate matter concentrations (PM10) and aerosol optical depths (AOD) are compared against both satellite-based (MSG/SEVRI RGB dust, MODIS Deep Blue Aerosol Optical Depth: DB-AOD, Ozone Monitoring Instrument observed UV Aerosol Absorption Index: OMI-AI) and ground-based (AERONET AOD) remote sensing products. The spatial pattern and the time series of the simulations show good agreement with the observations in terms of the dust intensity as well as the spatiotemporal distribution. The causative mechanisms of these dust events are identified by the concurrent analyses of the meteorological data. From these seven storms, five are associated with synoptic scale meteorological processes, such as prefrontal storms (D1 and D7), postfrontal storms of short (D2), and long (D3) duration types, and a summer shamal storm (D6). However, the storms D4 and D6 are partly associated with mesoscale convective type dust episodes known as haboobs. The socio-economic impacts of the dust events have been assessed by estimating the horizontal visibility, air quality index (AQI), and the dust deposition flux (DDF) from the forecasted dust concentrations. During the extreme dust events, the horizontal visibility drops to near-zero values co-occurred withhazardous levels of AQI and extremely high dust deposition flux (250 μg cm- 2 day- 1).

Synoptic typing: interdisciplinary application methods with three practical hydroclimatological examples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siegert, C. M.; Leathers, D. J.; Levia, D. F.

2017-05-01

Synoptic classification is a methodology that represents diverse atmospheric variables and allows researchers to relate large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns to regional- and small-scale terrestrial processes. Synoptic classification has often been applied to questions concerning the surface environment. However, full applicability has been under-utilized to date, especially in disciplines such as hydroclimatology, which are intimately linked to atmospheric inputs. This paper aims to (1) outline the development of a daily synoptic calendar for the Mid-Atlantic (USA), (2) define seasonal synoptic patterns occurring in the region, and (3) provide hydroclimatological examples whereby the cascading response of precipitation characteristics, soil moisture, and streamflow are explained by synoptic classification. Together, achievement of these objectives serves as a guide for development and use of a synoptic calendar for hydroclimatological studies. In total 22 unique synoptic types were identified, derived from a combination of 12 types occurring in the winter (DJF), 13 in spring (MAM), 9 in summer (JJA), and 11 in autumn (SON). This includes six low pressure systems, four high pressure systems, one cold front, three north/northwest flow regimes, three south/southwest flow regimes, and five weakly defined regimes. Pairwise comparisons indicated that 84.3 % had significantly different rainfall magnitudes, 86.4 % had different rainfall durations, and 84.7 % had different rainfall intensities. The largest precipitation-producing classifications were not restricted to low pressure systems, but rather to patterns with access to moisture sources from the Atlantic Ocean and easterly (on-shore) winds, which transport moisture inland. These same classifications resulted in comparable rates of soil moisture recharge and streamflow discharge, illustrating the applicability of synoptic classification for a range of hydroclimatological research objectives.

Empirical and modeled synoptic cloud climatology of the Arctic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barry, R. G.; Newell, J. P.; Schweiger, A.; Crane, R. G.

1986-01-01

A set of cloud cover data were developed for the Arctic during the climatically important spring/early summer transition months. Parallel with the determination of mean monthly cloud conditions, data for different synoptic pressure patterns were also composited as a means of evaluating the role of synoptic variability on Arctic cloud regimes. In order to carry out this analysis, a synoptic classification scheme was developed for the Arctic using an objective typing procedure. A second major objective was to analyze model output of pressure fields and cloud parameters from a control run of the Goddard Institue for Space Studies climate model for the same area and to intercompare the synoptic climatatology of the model with that based on the observational data.

Satellite Image Classification of Building Damages Using Airborne and Satellite Image Samples in a Deep Learning Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duarte, D.; Nex, F.; Kerle, N.; Vosselman, G.

2018-05-01

The localization and detailed assessment of damaged buildings after a disastrous event is of utmost importance to guide response operations, recovery tasks or for insurance purposes. Several remote sensing platforms and sensors are currently used for the manual detection of building damages. However, there is an overall interest in the use of automated methods to perform this task, regardless of the used platform. Owing to its synoptic coverage and predictable availability, satellite imagery is currently used as input for the identification of building damages by the International Charter, as well as the Copernicus Emergency Management Service for the production of damage grading and reference maps. Recently proposed methods to perform image classification of building damages rely on convolutional neural networks (CNN). These are usually trained with only satellite image samples in a binary classification problem, however the number of samples derived from these images is often limited, affecting the quality of the classification results. The use of up/down-sampling image samples during the training of a CNN, has demonstrated to improve several image recognition tasks in remote sensing. However, it is currently unclear if this multi resolution information can also be captured from images with different spatial resolutions like satellite and airborne imagery (from both manned and unmanned platforms). In this paper, a CNN framework using residual connections and dilated convolutions is used considering both manned and unmanned aerial image samples to perform the satellite image classification of building damages. Three network configurations, trained with multi-resolution image samples are compared against two benchmark networks where only satellite image samples are used. Combining feature maps generated from airborne and satellite image samples, and refining these using only the satellite image samples, improved nearly 4 % the overall satellite image classification of building damages.

On the dynamics of synoptic scale cyclones associated with flood events in Crete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flocas, Helena; Katavoutas, George; Tsanis, Ioannis; Iordanidou, Vasiliki

2015-04-01

Flood events in the Mediterranean are frequently linked to synoptic scale cyclones, although topographical or anthropogenic factors can play important role. The knowledge of the vertical profile and dynamics of these cyclones can serve as a reliable early flood warning system that can further help in hazard mitigation and risk management planning. Crete is the second largest island in the eastern Mediterranean region, being characterized by high precipitation amounts during winter, frequently causing flood events. The objective of this study is to examine the dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms at the upper and lower levels responsible for the generation of these events, according to their origin domain. The flooding events were recorded for a period of almost 20 years. The surface cyclones are identified with the aid of MS scheme that was appropriately modified and extensively employed in the Mediterranean region in previous studies. Then, the software VTS, specially developed for the Mediterranean cyclones, was employed to investigate the vertical extension, slope and dynamic/kinematic characteristics of the surface cyclones. Composite maps of dynamic/thermodynamic parameters, such as potential vorticity, temperature advection, divergence, surface fluxes were then constructed before and during the time of the flood. The dataset includes 6-hourly surface and isobaric analyses on a 0.5° x 0.5° regular latitude-longitude grid, as derived from the ERA-INTERIM Reanalysis of the ECMWF. It was found that cyclones associated with flood events in Crete mainly generate over northern Africa or southern eastern Mediterranean region and experience their minimum pressure over Crete or southwestern Greece. About 84% of the cyclones extend up to 500hPa, demonstrating that they are well vertically well-organized systems. The vast majority (almost 84%) of the surface cyclones attains their minimum pressure when their 500 hpa counterparts are located in the NW or SW, confirming that baroclinicity is one of the most important driving mechanisms for the cyclonic deepening over the examined region. The upper level dynamics acting well before the event and the low level diabatic processes over the Aegean or the Levantine sea contribute to the large amounts of precipitation. The research reported in this paper was fully supported by the "ARISTEIA II" Action ("REINFORCE" program) of the "Operational Education and Life Long Learning programme" and is co-funded by the European Social Fund (ESF) and National Resources.

Network analysis reveals multiscale controls on streamwater chemistry

Treesearch

Kevin J. McGuire; Christian E. Torgersen; Gene E. Likens; Donald C. Buso; Winsor H. Lowe; Scott W. Bailey

2014-01-01

By coupling synoptic data from a basin-wide assessment of streamwater chemistry with network-based geostatistical analysis, we show that spatial processes differentially affect biogeochemical condition and pattern across a headwater stream network. We analyzed a high-resolution dataset consisting of 664 water samples collected every 100 m throughout 32 tributaries in...

SEDIMENT MICROBIAL RESPIRATION IN A SYNOPTIC SURVEY OF MID-ATLANTIC REGION STREAMS

EPA Science Inventory

l. The rate of microbial respiration on fine-grained stream sediments was measured at 196 first-to third-order sites in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States.2. Sample collection took place between April and July in 1993, 1994 and 1995.3. Study streams were randomly sele...

Transboundary atmospheric lead pollution.

PubMed

Erel, Yigal; Axelrod, Tamar; Veron, Alain; Mahrer, Yitzak; Katsafados, Petros; Dayan, Uri

2002-08-01

A high-temporal resolution collection technique was applied to refine aerosol sampling in Jerusalem, Israel. Using stable lead isotopes, lead concentrations, synoptic data, and atmospheric modeling, we demonstrate that lead detected in the atmosphere of Jerusalem is not only anthropogenic lead of local origin but also lead emitted in other countries. Fifty-seven percent of the collected samples contained a nontrivial fraction of foreign atmospheric lead and had 206Pb/207Pb values which deviated from the local petrol-lead value (206Pb/207Pb = 1.113) by more than two standard deviations (0.016). Foreign 206Pb/207Pb values were recorded in Jerusalem on several occasions. The synoptic conditions on these dates and reported values of the isotopic composition of lead emitted in various countries around Israel suggest that the foreign lead was transported to Jerusalem from Egypt, Turkey, and East Europe. The average concentration of foreign atmospheric lead in Jerusalem was 23 +/- 17 ng/m3, similar to the average concentration of local atmospheric lead, 21 +/- 18 ng/ m3. Hence, the load of foreign atmospheric lead is similar to the load of local atmospheric lead in Jerusalem.

Synoptic scale convection and wave activity over tropical Africa and the Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mekonnen, Ademe

The objective of this research is to investigate synoptic scale convection and its association with wave disturbances over eastern Atlantic and tropical Africa. Analyses of convection highlight a significant peak periodicity in 2-6 day time scale over the Atlantic and most of tropical North Africa. The 2-6 day convective variance is the same order of magnitude over West and East Africa and accounts for 25%-35% of the total variance. However, dynamical measures of the African easterly wave (AEW) activity showed marked differences, variances over the West being more than the East. The explanation for this is that AEWs are initiated by convective precursors in the east and grow as they propagate westwards along the African easterly jet. Results show two major regions of synoptic time scale convection that are important for AEW initiation: the Darfur mountains (˜20°E) and the Ethiopian highlands (35°-40°E), with the former being more consistent and coherent. This study also shows the presence of eastward moving convective structures over tropical Africa, which are associated with Kelvin waves. The Kelvin waves originate in the Pacific and propagate across Africa. An important aspect of the Kelvin wave activity is its impact on convection and rainfall and its interaction with AEWs. Analysis of July-September 1987 weather events showed that convection and rainfall increase in association with Kelvin waves over tropical Africa. This event also suggested a series of AEWs initiated in association with Kelvin convection over tropical Africa. Spectral analysis of convection indicates a significant 3-4 day periodicity over Central Sudan, a region not known for wave disturbances. Two key factors that are associated with this variance are: (a) convective variability over equatorial Congo, and (b) upper level easterly waves that originate over Bay of Bengal-Southeast Asia. Results show the presence of a dipole pattern between the equatorial and East African convection that oscillates on a 4-day time scale. It is suggested that the two regions interact through a recharge-discharge process. This study also shows that convection over East Africa enhances in association with anomalous northerlies and weakens in association with southerlies in the upper troposphere.

New perspectives on the synoptic and mesoscale structure of Hurricane Catarina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira Filho, Augusto José; Pezza, Alexandre Bernardes; Simmonds, Ian; Lima, Raquel Silva; Vianna, Marcio

2010-02-01

This work explores in detail synoptic and mesoscale features of Hurricane Catarina during its life cycle from a decaying baroclinic wave to a tropical depression that underwent tropical transition (TT) and finally to a Category 2 hurricane at landfall over Santa Catarina State coast, southern Brazil. This unique system caused 11 deaths mostly off the Brazilian coast and an estimated half billion dollars in damage in a matter of a few hours on 28 March 2004. Although the closest meteorological station available was tens of kilometres away from the eye, in situ meteorological measurements provided by a work-team sent to the area where the eye made landfall unequivocally reproduces the tropical signature with category 2 strength, adding to previous analysis where this data was not available. Further analyses are based mostly on remote sensing data available at the time of the event. A classic dipole blocking set synoptic conditions for Hurricane Catarina to develop, dynamically contributing to the low wind shear observed. On the other hand, on its westward transit, large scale subsidence limited its strength and vertical development. Catarina had relatively cool SST conditions, but this was mitigated by favourable air-sea fluxes leading to latent heat release-driven processes during the mature phase. The ocean's dynamic topography also suggested the presence of nearby warm core rings which may have facilitated the transition and post-transition intensification. Since there were no records of such a system at least in the past 30 years and given that SSTs were generally below 26 °C and vertical shear was usually strong, despite all satellite data available, the system was initially classified as an extratropical cyclone. Here we hypothesise that this categorization was based on inadequate regional scale model outputs which did not account for the importance of the latent heat fluxes over the ocean. Hurricane Catarina represents a dramatic event on weather systems in South America. It has attracted attention worldwide and poses questions as whether or not it is a symptom of global warming.

Atmospheric inputs of organic matter to a forested watershed: Variations from storm to storm over the seasons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iavorivska , Lidiia; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Miller, Matthew P.; Brown, Michael G.; Vasilopoulos , Terrie; Fuentes, Jose D.; Duffy, Christopher J.

2016-01-01

The objectives of this study were to determine the quantity and chemical composition of precipitation inputs of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to a forested watershed; and to characterize the associated temporal variability. We sampled most precipitation that occurred from May 2012 through August 2013 at the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory (Pennsylvania, USA). Sub-event precipitation samples (159) were collected sequentially during 90 events; covering various types of synoptic meteorological conditions in all climatic seasons. Precipitation DOC concentrations and rates of wet atmospheric DOC deposition were highly variable from storm to storm, ranging from 0.3 to 5.6 mg C L−1 and from 0.5 to 32.8 mg C m−2 h−1, respectively. Seasonally, storms in spring and summer had higher concentrations of DOC and more optically active organic matter than in winter. Higher DOC concentrations resulted from weather types that favor air advection, where cold frontal systems, on average, delivered more than warm/stationary fronts and northeasters. A mixed modeling statistical approach revealed that factors related to storm properties, emission sources, and to the chemical composition of the atmosphere could explain more than 60% of the storm to storm variability in DOC concentrations. This study provided observations on changes in dissolved organic matter that can be useful in modeling of atmospheric oxidative chemistry, exploring relationships between organics and other elements of precipitation chemistry, and in considering temporal changes in ecosystem nutrient balances and microbial activity.

Identification of extreme precipitation threat across midlatitude regions based on short-wave circulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shih-Yu; Davies, Robert E.; Gillies, Robert R.

2013-10-01

most severe thunderstorms, producing extreme precipitation, occur over subtropical and midlatitude regions. Atmospheric conditions conducive to organized, intense thunderstorms commonly involve the coupling of a low-level jet (LLJ) with a synoptic short wave. The midlatitude synoptic activity is frequently modulated by the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT), in which meridional gradients of the jet stream act as a guide for short Rossby waves. Previous research has linked extreme precipitation events with either the CGT or the LLJ but has not linked the two circulation features together. In this study, a circulation-based index was developed by combining (a) the degree of the CGT and LLJ coupling, (b) the extent to which this CGT-LLJ coupling connects to regional precipitation and (c) the spatial correspondence with the CGT (short wave) trending pattern over the recent 32 years (1979-2010). Four modern-era global reanalyses, in conjunction with four gridded precipitation data sets, were utilized to minimize spurious trends. The results are suggestive of a link between the CGT/LLJ trends and several recent extreme precipitation events, including those leading to the 2008 Midwest flood in U.S., the 2011 tornado outbreaks in southeastern U.S., the 2010 Queensland flood in northeastern Australia, and to the opposite side the 2012 central U.S. drought. Moreover, an analysis of three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models from the historical experiments points to the role of greenhouse gases in forming the CGT trends during the warm season.

Optimisation of solar synoptic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klvaña, Miroslav; Sobotka, Michal; Švanda, Michal

2012-09-01

The development of instrumental and computer technologies is connected with steadily increasing needs for archiving of large data volumes. The current trend to meet this requirement includes the data compression and growth of storage capacities. This approach, however, has technical and practical limits. A further reduction of the archived data volume can be achieved by means of an optimisation of the archiving that consists in data selection without losing the useful information. We describe a method of optimised archiving of solar images, based on the selection of images that contain a new information. The new information content is evaluated by means of the analysis of changes detected in the images. We present characteristics of different kinds of image changes and divide them into fictitious changes with a disturbing effect and real changes that provide a new information. In block diagrams describing the selection and archiving, we demonstrate the influence of clouds, the recording of images during an active event on the Sun, including a period before the event onset, and the archiving of long-term history of solar activity. The described optimisation technique is not suitable for helioseismology, because it does not conserve the uniform time step in the archived sequence and removes the information about solar oscillations. In case of long-term synoptic observations, the optimised archiving can save a large amount of storage capacities. The actual capacity saving will depend on the setting of the change-detection sensitivity and on the capability to exclude the fictitious changes.

Investigation of dust storms entering Western Iran using remotely sensed data and synoptic analysis.

PubMed

Boloorani, Ali D; Nabavi, Seyed O; Bahrami, Hosain A; Mirzapour, Fardin; Kavosi, Musa; Abasi, Esmail; Azizi, Rasoul

2014-01-01

One of the natural phenomena which have had considerable impacts on various regions of the world, including Iran, is "dust storm". In recent years, this phenomenon has taken on new dimensions in Iran and has changed from a local problem to a national issue. This study is an attempt to investigate the formation of the dust storms crossing the Western Iran. To find the sources of the dust storms entering Iran, first we examine three determined dust paths in the region and their temporal activities, using MODIS satellite images. Then, four regions were identified as dust sources through soil, land cover and wind data. Finally, atmospheric analyses are implemented to find synoptic patterns inducing dust storms. Source 1 has covered the region between the eastern banks of Euphrates and western banks of Tigris. Source 2 is in desert area of western and south-western Iraq. Finally source 3 is bounded in eastern and south-eastern deserts of Saudi Arabia called Rub-Al-Khali desert, or Empty Quarter. Moreover, south-eastern part of Iraq (source 4) was also determined as a secondary source which thickens the dust masses originating from the above mentioned sources. The study of synoptic circulations suggests that the dust storms originating from source 1 are formed due to the intense pressure gradient between the low-pressure system of Zagros and a high-pressure cell formed on Mediterranean Sea. The dust events in sources 2 and 3 are outcomes of the atmospheric circulations dominant in the cold period of the year in mid-latitudes.

Effects of stock use and backpackers on water quality in wilderness in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, USA.

PubMed

Clow, David W; Forrester, Harrison; Miller, Benjamin; Roop, Heidi; Sickman, James O; Ryu, Hodon; Domingo, Jorge Santo

2013-12-01

During 2010-2011, a study was conducted in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SEKI) to evaluate the influence of pack animals (stock) and backpackers on water quality in wilderness lakes and streams. The study had three main components: (1) a synoptic survey of water quality in wilderness areas of the parks, (2) paired water quality sampling above and below several areas with differing types and amounts of visitor use, and (3) intensive monitoring at six sites to document temporal variations in water quality. Data from the synoptic water quality survey indicated that wilderness lakes and streams are dilute and have low nutrient and Escherichia coli concentrations. The synoptic survey sites were categorized as minimal use, backpacker-use, or mixed use (stock and backpackers), depending on the most prevalent type of use upstream from the sampling locations. Sites with mixed use tended to have higher concentrations of most constituents (including E. coli) than those categorized as minimal-use (P ≤ 0.05); concentrations at backpacker-use sites were intermediate. Data from paired-site sampling indicated that E. coli, total coliform, and particulate phosphorus concentrations were greater in streams downstream from mixed-use areas than upstream from those areas (P ≤ 0.05). Paired-site data also indicated few statistically significant differences in nutrient, E. coli, or total coliform concentrations in streams upstream and downstream from backpacker-use areas. The intensive-monitoring data indicated that nutrient and E. coli concentrations normally were low, except during storms, when notable increases in concentrations of E. coli, nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, and turbidity occurred. In summary, results from this study indicate that water quality in SEKI wilderness generally is good, except during storms; and visitor use appears to have a small, but statistically significant influence on stream water quality.

Effects of Stock Use and Backpackers on Water Quality in Wilderness in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clow, David W.; Forrester, Harrison; Miller, Benjamin; Roop, Heidi; Sickman, James O.; Ryu, Hodon; Domingo, Jorge Santo

2013-12-01

During 2010-2011, a study was conducted in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SEKI) to evaluate the influence of pack animals (stock) and backpackers on water quality in wilderness lakes and streams. The study had three main components: (1) a synoptic survey of water quality in wilderness areas of the parks, (2) paired water quality sampling above and below several areas with differing types and amounts of visitor use, and (3) intensive monitoring at six sites to document temporal variations in water quality. Data from the synoptic water quality survey indicated that wilderness lakes and streams are dilute and have low nutrient and Escherichia coli concentrations. The synoptic survey sites were categorized as minimal use, backpacker-use, or mixed use (stock and backpackers), depending on the most prevalent type of use upstream from the sampling locations. Sites with mixed use tended to have higher concentrations of most constituents (including E. coli) than those categorized as minimal-use ( P ≤ 0.05); concentrations at backpacker-use sites were intermediate. Data from paired-site sampling indicated that E. coli, total coliform, and particulate phosphorus concentrations were greater in streams downstream from mixed-use areas than upstream from those areas ( P ≤ 0.05). Paired-site data also indicated few statistically significant differences in nutrient, E. coli, or total coliform concentrations in streams upstream and downstream from backpacker-use areas. The intensive-monitoring data indicated that nutrient and E. coli concentrations normally were low, except during storms, when notable increases in concentrations of E. coli, nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, and turbidity occurred. In summary, results from this study indicate that water quality in SEKI wilderness generally is good, except during storms; and visitor use appears to have a small, but statistically significant influence on stream water quality.

Effects of stock use and backpackers on water quality in wilderness in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clow, David W.; Forrester, Harrison; Miller, Benjamin; Roop, Heidi; Sickman, James O.; Ryu, Hodon; Santo Domingo, Jorge

2013-01-01

During 2010-2011, a study was conducted in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SEKI) to evaluate the influence of pack animals (stock) and backpackers on water quality in wilderness lakes and streams. The study had three main components: (1) a synoptic survey of water quality in wilderness areas of the parks, (2) paired water-quality sampling above and below several areas with differing types and amounts of visitor use, and (3) intensive monitoring at six sites to document temporal variations in water quality. Data from the synoptic water-quality survey indicated that wilderness lakes and streams are dilute and have low nutrient and Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentrations. The synoptic survey sites were categorized as minimal use, backpacker use, or mixed use (stock and backpackers), depending on the most prevalent type of use upstream from the sampling locations. Sites with mixed use tended to have higher concentrations of most constituents (including E.coli) than those categorized as minimal-use (p≤0.05); concentrations at backpacker-use sites were intermediate. Data from paired-site sampling indicated that E.coli, total coliform, and particulate phosphorus concentrations were greater in streams downstream from mixed-use areas than upstream from those areas (p≤0.05). Paired-site data also indicated few statistically significant differences in nutrient, E. coli, or total coliform concentrations in streams upstream and downstream from backpacker-use areas. The intensive-monitoring data indicated that nutrient and E. coli concentrations normally were low, except during storms, when notable increases in concentrations of E.coli, nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, and turbidity occurred. In summary, results from this study indicate that water quality in SEKI wilderness generally is good, except during storms; and visitor use appears to have a small, but statistically significant influence on stream water quality.

Combination of synoptical-analogous and dynamical methods to increase skill score of monthly air temperature forecasts over Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Valentina; Tscepelev, Valery; Vilfand, Roman; Kulikova, Irina; Kruglova, Ekaterina; Tischenko, Vladimir

2016-04-01

Long-range forecasts at monthly-seasonal time scale are in great demand of socio-economic sectors for exploiting climate-related risks and opportunities. At the same time, the quality of long-range forecasts is not fully responding to user application necessities. Different approaches, including combination of different prognostic models, are used in forecast centers to increase the prediction skill for specific regions and globally. In the present study, two forecasting methods are considered which are exploited in operational practice of Hydrometeorological Center of Russia. One of them is synoptical-analogous method of forecasting of surface air temperature at monthly scale. Another one is dynamical system based on the global semi-Lagrangian model SL-AV, developed in collaboration of Institute of Numerical Mathematics and Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia. The seasonal version of this model has been used to issue global and regional forecasts at monthly-seasonal time scales. This study presents results of the evaluation of surface air temperature forecasts generated with using above mentioned synoptical-statistical and dynamical models, and their combination to potentially increase skill score over Northern Eurasia. The test sample of operational forecasts is encompassing period from 2010 through 2015. The seasonal and interannual variability of skill scores of these methods has been discussed. It was noticed that the quality of all forecasts is highly dependent on the inertia of macro-circulation processes. The skill scores of forecasts are decreasing during significant alterations of synoptical fields for both dynamical and empirical schemes. Procedure of combination of forecasts from different methods, in some cases, has demonstrated its effectiveness. For this study the support has been provided by Grant of Russian Science Foundation (№14-37-00053).

Validation of a Remote Sensing Based Index of Forest Disturbance Using Streamwater Nitrogen Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eshleman, Keith N.; McNeil, Brenden E.; Townsend, Philip A.

2008-01-01

Vegetation disturbances are known to alter the functioning of forested ecosystems by contributing to export ('leakage') of dissolved nitrogen (N), typically nitrate-N, from watersheds that can contribute to acidification of acid-sensitive streams, leaching of base cations, and eutrophication of downstream receiving waters. Yet, at a landscape scale, direct evaluation of how disturbance is linked to spatial variability in N leakage is complicated by the fact that disturbances operate at different spatial scales, over different timescales, and at different intensities. In this paper we explore whether data from synoptic streamwater surveys conducted in an Appalachian oak-dominated forested river basin in western MD (USA) can be used to test and validate a scalable, synthetic, and integrative forest disturbance index (FDI) derived from Landsat imagery. In particular, we found support for the hypothesis that the interannual variation in spring baseflow total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) and nitrate-N concentrations measured at 35 randomly selected stream stations varied as a linear function of the change in FDI computed for the corresponding set of subwatersheds. Our results demonstrate that the combined effects of forest disturbances can be detected using synoptic water quality data. It appears that careful timing of the synoptic baseflow sampling under comparable phenological and hydrometeorological conditions increased our ability to identify a forest disturbance signal.

Robust Period Estimation Using Mutual Information for Multiband Light Curves in the Synoptic Survey Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huijse, Pablo; Estévez, Pablo A.; Förster, Francisco; Daniel, Scott F.; Connolly, Andrew J.; Protopapas, Pavlos; Carrasco, Rodrigo; Príncipe, José C.

2018-05-01

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) will produce an unprecedented amount of light curves using six optical bands. Robust and efficient methods that can aggregate data from multidimensional sparsely sampled time-series are needed. In this paper we present a new method for light curve period estimation based on quadratic mutual information (QMI). The proposed method does not assume a particular model for the light curve nor its underlying probability density and it is robust to non-Gaussian noise and outliers. By combining the QMI from several bands the true period can be estimated even when no single-band QMI yields the period. Period recovery performance as a function of average magnitude and sample size is measured using 30,000 synthetic multiband light curves of RR Lyrae and Cepheid variables generated by the LSST Operations and Catalog simulators. The results show that aggregating information from several bands is highly beneficial in LSST sparsely sampled time-series, obtaining an absolute increase in period recovery rate up to 50%. We also show that the QMI is more robust to noise and light curve length (sample size) than the multiband generalizations of the Lomb–Scargle and AoV periodograms, recovering the true period in 10%–30% more cases than its competitors. A python package containing efficient Cython implementations of the QMI and other methods is provided.

The fossil record of evolution: Data on diversification and extinction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sepkoski, J. J., Jr.

1986-01-01

Synoptic studies of the fossil record of complex life on Earth indicate increasingly that extinction, and especially mass extinction, were extremely important driving forces in the history of life. Analysis of a new compilation of geologic ranges for 25,000 genera of marine animals suggests that extinction events were much more frequent in occurrence and variable in magnitude than previously suspected. At least 30 well documented and potential mass extinctions were identified in the dataset. The most recent event, distributed over 260 to 0 ma. exhibit a stationary periodicity of 26.1 + or - 1 ma, implicating a cosmological forcing mechanism. Earlier events, especially in the 575 to 450 ma interval, are more frequent, possibly indicating either a breakdown of periodicity in the more distant past; and as yet undemonstrated diminution of the period length; or frequent aperiodic terrestrial perturbations of a less stable biota superimposed upon the cosmological periodicity.

Changes in the Mechanisms Causing Rapid Drought Cessation in the Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, Justin T.; Knapp, Paul A.; Ortegren, Jason T.; Ficklin, Darren L.; Soulé, Peter T.

2017-12-01

The synoptic processes that end droughts are poorly understood, yet have significant climatological implications. Here we examined the spatiotemporal patterns of rapid drought cessation (RDC) in the southeastern United States during the1979-2013 warm season (April-November) for three storm types: Frontal, Tropical, and Air mass. We defined RDC as a 1 month shift in soil moisture sufficient to alleviate an existing drought. We found that 73% of all warm-season droughts were ended by RDC events and the three storm-type groups ended droughts over similar spatial areas. Frontal storms were the most frequent mechanism for RDC events, yet their occurrences significantly decreased and were negatively related to increases in Northern Hemisphere air temperatures. Projected future warming in the Northern Hemisphere suggests a continued decline in the frequency and relative contribution of Frontal storms as RDC events, potentially influencing the timing and spatial scale of drought cessation in the southeastern U.S.

United States Temperature and Precipitation Extremes: Phenomenology, Large-Scale Organization, Physical Mechanisms and Model Representation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, R. X.

2017-12-01

We summarize results from a project focusing on regional temperature and precipitation extremes over the continental United States. Our project introduces a new framework for evaluating these extremes emphasizing their (a) large-scale organization, (b) underlying physical sources (including remote-excitation and scale-interaction) and (c) representation in climate models. Results to be reported include the synoptic-dynamic behavior, seasonality and secular variability of cold waves, dry spells and heavy rainfall events in the observational record. We also study how the characteristics of such extremes are systematically related to Northern Hemisphere planetary wave structures and thus planetary- and hemispheric-scale forcing (e.g., those associated with major El Nino events and Arctic sea ice change). The underlying physics of event onset are diagnostically quantified for different categories of events. Finally, the representation of these extremes in historical coupled climate model simulations is studied and the origins of model biases are traced using new metrics designed to assess the large-scale atmospheric forcing of local extremes.

More frequent showers and thunderstorm days under a warming climate: evidence observed over Northern Eurasia from 1966 to 2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Hengchun; Fetzer, Eric J.; Wong, Sun; Lambrigtsen, Bjorn H.; Wang, Tao; Chen, Luke; Dang, Van

2017-09-01

This study uses 3-hourly synoptic observations at 547 stations to examine changes in convective and non-convective precipitation days and their associations with surface air temperature and specific humidity over Northern Eurasia. We found that convective days (showers and those associated with thunder and lightning) have become more frequent possibly at the expense of non-convective ones for all seasons during the study period of 1966-2000. The mean trends for convective day fraction (total convective precipitation events divided by all precipitation events for each season) are very similar among all four seasons at around 0.61-0.76% per year averaged over the study region. The temperature and humidity associated with convective events are on average 2.4-5.6 °C and 0.4-0.9 g/kg higher than those of non-convective events, respectively. This study suggests that surface warming and moistening lead to increased tropospheric static instability, contributing to the observed trends.

The relationship between land management, fecal indicator bacteria, and the occurrence of Campylobacter and Listeria spp. in water and sediments during synoptic sampling in the S. Fork Broad River Watershed, N.E. Georgia, U.S.A

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradshaw, J. K.; Molina, M.; Sidle, R. C.; Sullivan, K.; Oakley, B.; Berrang, M.; Meinersmann, R.

2013-12-01

Fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) and pathogens stored in the bed sediments of streams and rivers may be mobilized into the water column affecting overall water quality. Furthermore, land management may play an important role in the concentrations of FIB and the occurrence of pathogens in stream water and sediments. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between FIB and pathogens in stream water and sediment based on three land management-affected categories: agricultural, forest, and waters receiving treated municipal wastewater. Two synoptic sampling events were conducted under baseflow conditions (<0.64 cm of rain within 24h) between October-November, 2012 and May-June, 2013. Counts of the E. coli and E. faecalis and occurrences of the enteric pathogens Campylobacter and Listeria spp. were measured in stream water and sediment samples collected at 15 locations (six agricultural (AG); six forested (FORS); and three receiving discharge from water pollution control plants (WPCP)) in the S. Fork Broad River watershed located in northeast Georgia, USA. Mean E. coli and E. faecalis concentrations were highest in the AG stream water samples (3.08 log MPN 100 mL -1 for E. coli and 3.07 log CFU 100 mL -1 for E. faecalis ) and lowest in the FORS water samples for E. coli (2.37 log MPN 100 mL -1 ) and WPCP water samples for E. faecalis (2.53 log CFU 100 mL -1 ). E. coli concentrations (2.74 log MPN 100 mL -1 ) in the WPCP streams were intermediate. Similar to water samples, E. coli concentrations were highest in the AG sediments (4.31 log MPN g -1 ), intermediate in the WPCP sediments (4.06 log MPN g -1 ), and lowest in the FORS sediments (3.46 log MPN g -1 ). In contrast to E. coli, E. faecalis concentrations were lower (1.10 to 1.31 log CFU g -1 ) and relatively more constant than E. coli in sediments over the three land management categories. Campylobacter was detected in 27% of the water samples and 8% of the sediment samples. The highest occurrence of Campylobacter detection was in the AG streams (15% of the water samples; 5% of the sediment samples). Listeria was detected in 76% of the water samples and 65% of the sediment samples. The FORS and AG streams had the highest occurrence of Listeria in water and sediment (32% and 29% of the water samples, respectively; 24% and 29% of sediment samples, respectively) suggesting Listeria is fairly ubiquitous in these streams. Based on the high concentrations of E. faecalis in water and E. coli in water and sediment, and higher frequency of Campylobacter detection in the AG streams, this study indicates that E. coli and Campylobacter may occur in high concentrations in stream sediments in land management areas where fecal material is deposited directly by livestock into the stream or adjacent land in large doses.

Regional climates in the GISS global circulation model - Synoptic-scale circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hewitson, B.; Crane, R. G.

1992-01-01

A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs) is their perceived inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global-scale change, and it is these regional-scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human-environmental response. For large areas of the extratropics, the local climate is controlled by the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation, and it is the purpose of this paper to evaluate the synoptic-scale circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. A methodology for validating the daily synoptic circulation using Principal Component Analysis is described, and the methodology is then applied to the GCM simulation of sea level pressure over the continental United States (excluding Alaska). The analysis demonstrates that the GISS 4 x 5 deg GCM Model II effectively simulates the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation over the United States. The modes of variance describing the atmospheric circulation of the model are comparable to those found in the observed data, and these modes explain similar amounts of variance in their respective datasets. The temporal behavior of these circulation modes in the synoptic time frame are also comparable.

Energy transformations associated with the synoptic and planetary scales during the evolution of a blocking anticyclone and an upstream explosively-developing cyclone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Phillip J.; Tsou, Chih-Hua

1992-01-01

The eddy kinetic energy (KE), release of eddy potential energy, generation of eddy kinetic energy, and exchange between eddy and zonal kinetic energy are investigated for a blocking anticyclone over the North Atlantic Ocean and an extratropical cyclone that developed during January 17-21, 1979. The results indicate that KE was maintained by baroclinic conversion of potential to kinetic. As released potential energy was being used to generate KE, a portion of the KE was barotropically converted to zonal KE. These transformations were dominated by the synoptic-scale component. While changes in the mass field depended not only on the synoptic scale but also on the interactions between the synoptic and planetary scales, the corresponding changes in the eddy motion fields responded largely to synoptic-scale processes.

Chemical characteristics and source apportionment of fine particulate organic carbon in Hong Kong during high particulate matter episodes in winter 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yun-Chun; Yu, Jian Zhen; Ho, Steven Sai Hang; Schauer, James J.; Yuan, Zibing; Lau, Alexis K. H.; Louie, Peter K. K.

2013-02-01

PM2.5 samples were collected at six general stations and one roadside station in Hong Kong in two periods of high particulate matter (PM) in 2003 (27 October-4 November and 30 November-13 December). The highest PM2.5 reached 216 μg m- 3 during the first high PM period and 113 μg m- 3 during the second high PM period. Analysis of synoptic weather conditions identified individual sampling days under dominant influence of one of three types of air masses, that is, local, regional and long-range transported (LRT) air masses. Roadside samples were discussed separately due to heavy influences from vehicular emissions. This research examines source apportionment of fine organic carbon (OC) and contribution of secondary organic aerosol on high PM days under different synoptic conditions. Six primary OC (POC) sources (vehicle exhaust, biomass burning, cooking, cigarette smoke, vegetative detritus, and coal combustion) were identified on the basis of characteristic organic tracers. Individual POC source contributions were estimated using chemical mass balance model. In the roadside and the local samples, OC was dominated by the primary sources, accounting for more than 74% of OC. In the samples influenced by regional and LRT air masses, secondary OC (SOC), which was approximated to be the difference between the total measured OC and the apportioned POC, contributed more than 54% of fine OC. SOC was highly correlated with water-soluble organic carbon and sulfate, consistent with its secondary nature.

Quantifying the effects of stream channels on storm water quality in a semi-arid urban environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallo, Erika L.; Lohse, Kathleen A.; Brooks, Paul D.; McIntosh, Jennifer C.; Meixner, Thomas; McLain, Jean E. T.

2012-11-01

SummaryStormwater drainage systems can have a large effect on urban runoff quality, but it is unclear how ephemeral urban streams alter runoff hydrochemistry. This problem is particularly relevant in semi-arid regions, where urban storm runoff is considered a renewable water resource. Here we address the question: how do stream channels alter urban runoff hydrochemistry? We collected synoptic stormwater samples during three rainfall-runoff events from nine ephemeral streams reaches (three concrete or metal, three grass, three gravel) in Tucson, Arizona. We identified patterns of temporal and spatial (longitudinal) variability in concentrations of conservative (chloride and isotopes of water) and reactive solutes (inorganic-N, soluble reactive phosphorous, sulfate-S, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrogen, and fecal indicator bacteria). Water isotopes and chloride (Cl) concentrations indicate that solute flushing and evapoconcentration alter temporal patterns in runoff hydrochemistry, but not spatial hydrochemical responses. Solute concentrations and stream channel solute sourcing and retention during runoff were significantly more variable at the grass reaches (CV = 2.3 - 144%) than at the concrete or metal (CV = 1.6 - 107%) or gravel reaches (CV = 1.9 - 60%), which functioned like flow-through systems. Stream channel soil Cl and DOC decreased following a runoff event (Cl: 12.1-7.3 μg g-1 soil; DOC: 87.7-30.1 μg g-1 soil), while soil fecal indicator bacteria counts increased (55-215 CFU g-1 soil). Finding from this study suggest that the characteristics of the ephemeral stream channel substrate control biogeochemical reactions between runoff events, which alter stream channel soil solute stores and the hydrochemistry of subsequent runoff events.

Interannual rainfall variability and SOM-based circulation classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolski, Piotr; Jack, Christopher; Tadross, Mark; van Aardenne, Lisa; Lennard, Christopher

2018-01-01

Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) based classifications of synoptic circulation patterns are increasingly being used to interpret large-scale drivers of local climate variability, and as part of statistical downscaling methodologies. These applications rely on a basic premise of synoptic climatology, i.e. that local weather is conditioned by the large-scale circulation. While it is clear that this relationship holds in principle, the implications of its implementation through SOM-based classification, particularly at interannual and longer time scales, are not well recognized. Here we use a SOM to understand the interannual synoptic drivers of climate variability at two locations in the winter and summer rainfall regimes of South Africa. We quantify the portion of variance in seasonal rainfall totals that is explained by year to year differences in the synoptic circulation, as schematized by a SOM. We furthermore test how different spatial domain sizes and synoptic variables affect the ability of the SOM to capture the dominant synoptic drivers of interannual rainfall variability. Additionally, we identify systematic synoptic forcing that is not captured by the SOM classification. The results indicate that the frequency of synoptic states, as schematized by a relatively disaggregated SOM (7 × 9) of prognostic atmospheric variables, including specific humidity, air temperature and geostrophic winds, captures only 20-45% of interannual local rainfall variability, and that the residual variance contains a strong systematic component. Utilising a multivariate linear regression framework demonstrates that this residual variance can largely be explained using synoptic variables over a particular location; even though they are used in the development of the SOM their influence, however, diminishes with the size of the SOM spatial domain. The influence of the SOM domain size, the choice of SOM atmospheric variables and grid-point explanatory variables on the levels of explained variance, is consistent with the general understanding of the dominant processes and atmospheric variables that affect rainfall variability at a particular location.

Ways of Viewing Pictorial Plasticity

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The plastic effect is historically used to denote various forms of stereopsis. The vivid impression of depth often associated with binocular stereopsis can also be achieved in other ways, for example, using a synopter. Accounts of this go back over a hundred years. These ways of viewing all aim to diminish sensorial evidence that the picture is physically flat. Although various viewing modes have been proposed in the literature, their effects have never been compared. In the current study, we compared three viewing modes: monocular blur, synoptic viewing, and free viewing (using a placebo synopter). By designing a physical embodiment that was indistinguishable for the three experimental conditions, we kept observers naïve with respect to the differences between them; 197 observers participated in an experiment where the three viewing modes were compared by performing a rating task. Results indicate that synoptic viewing causes the largest plastic effect. Monocular blur scores lower than synoptic viewing but is still rated significantly higher than the baseline conditions. The results strengthen the idea that synoptic viewing is not due to a placebo effect. Furthermore, monocular blur has been verified for the first time as a way of experiencing the plastic effect, although the effect is smaller than synoptic viewing. We discuss the results with respect to the theoretical basis for the plastic effect. We show that current theories are not described with sufficient details to explain the differences we found. PMID:28491270

Development of a synoptic MRI report for primary rectal cancer.

PubMed

Spiegle, Gillian; Leon-Carlyle, Marisa; Schmocker, Selina; Fruitman, Mark; Milot, Laurent; Gagliardi, Anna R; Smith, Andy J; McLeod, Robin S; Kennedy, Erin D

2009-12-02

Although magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is an important imaging modality for pre-operative staging and surgical planning of rectal cancer, to date there has been little investigation on the completeness and overall quality of MRI reports. This is important because optimal patient care depends on the quality of the MRI report and clear communication of these reports to treating physicians. Previous work has shown that the use of synoptic pathology reports improves the quality of pathology reports and communication between physicians. The aims of this project are to develop a synoptic MRI report for rectal cancer and determine the enablers and barriers toward the implementation of a synoptic MRI report for rectal cancer in the clinical setting. A three-step Delphi process with an expert panel will extract the key criteria for the MRI report to guide pre-operative chemoradiation and surgical planning following a review of the literature, and a synoptic template will be developed. Furthermore, standardized qualitative research methods will be used to conduct interviews with radiologists to determine the enablers and barriers to the implementation and sustainability of the synoptic MRI report in the clinic setting. Synoptic MRI reports for rectal cancer are currently not used in North America and may improve the overall quality of MRI report and communication between physicians. This may, in turn, lead to improved patient care and outcomes for rectal cancer patients.

Recent Developments in Gravity-Wave Effects in Climate Models and the Global Distribution of Gravity-Wave Momentum Flux from Observations and Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-07-01

by changes in wind and stability to a vertical wavelength lying outside the observable range. Gravity-wave parametrizations also represent intermit ...tropopause variability. J. Atmos. Sci. 65: 1817–1837. Salby ML. 1982. Sampling theory for asynoptic satellite observations. Part II: Fast Fourier synoptic

Forecast skill of synoptic conditions associated with Santa Ana winds in Southern California

Treesearch

Charles Jones; Francis Fujioka; Leila M.V. Carvalho

2010-01-01

Santa Ana winds (SAW) are synoptically driven mesoscale winds observed in Southern California usually during late fall and winter. Because of the complex topography of the region, SAW episodes can sometimes be extremely intense and pose significant environmental hazards, especially during wildfire incidents. A simple set of criteria was used to identify synoptic-scale...

A Model Based Analysis of the Role of an Upper-Level Front and Stratospheric Intrusion in the Mack Lake Fire

Treesearch

Tarisa K. Zimet; Jonathan E. Martin

2003-01-01

Meteorological assessment of wildfire risk has traditionally involved identification of several synoptic types empirically determined to influence wildfire spread. Such weather types are characterized by identifiable synoptic-scale structures and processes. Schroeder et. al. (1964) identified four recognizable synoptic-scale patterns that contribute most frequently to...

Numerical modeling of an intense precipitation event and its associated lightning activity over northern Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pytharoulis, I.; Kotsopoulos, S.; Tegoulias, I.; Kartsios, S.; Bampzelis, D.; Karacostas, T.

2016-03-01

This study investigates an intense precipitation event and its lightning activity that affected northern Greece and primarily Thessaloniki on 15 July 2014. The precipitation measurement of 98.5 mm in 15 h at the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki set a new absolute record maximum. The thermodynamic analysis indicated that the event took place in an environment that could support deep thunderstorm activity. The development of this intense event was associated with significant low-level convergence and upper-level divergence even before its triggering and a positive vertical gradient of relative vorticity advection. The high resolution (1.667 km × 1.667 km) non-hydrostatic WRF-ARW numerical weather prediction model was used to simulate this intense precipitation event, while the Lightning Potential Index was utilized to calculate the potential for lightning activity. Sensitivity experiments suggested that although the strong synoptic forcing assumed primary role in the occurrence of intense precipitation and lightning activity, their spatiotemporal variability was affected by topography. The application of the very fine resolution topography of NASA Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission improved the simulated precipitation and the calculated lightning potential.

3D Modeling of CMEs observed with STEREO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosman, E.; Bothmer, V.

2012-04-01

From January 2007 until end of 2010, 565 typical large-scale coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been identified in the SECCHI/COR2 synoptic movies of the STEREO Mission. A subset comprising 114 CME events, selected based on the CME's brightness appearance in the SECCHI/COR2 images, has been modeled through the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) Model developed by Thernisien et al. (2006). This study presents an overview of the GCS forward-modeling results and an interpretation of the CME characteristics in relationship to their solar source region properties and solar cycle appearances.

Cloud Properties under Different Synoptic Circulations: Comparison of Radiosonde and Ground-Based Active Remote Sensing Measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Jinqiang; Li, Jun; Xia, Xiangao

In this study, long-term (10 years) radiosonde-based cloud data are compared with the ground-based active remote sensing product under six prevailing large-scale synoptic patterns, i.e., cyclonic center (CC), weak pressure pattern (WP), the southeast bottom of cyclonic center (CB), cold front (CF), anticyclone edge (AE) and anticyclone center (AC) over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. The synoptic patterns are generated by applying the self-organizing map weather classification method to the daily National Centers for Environmental Protection mean sea level pressure records from the North American Regional Reanalysis. It reveals that the large-scale synoptic circulations can strongly influence the regionalmore » cloud formation, and thereby have impact on the consistency of cloud retrievals from the radiosonde and ground-based cloud product. The total cloud cover at the SGP site is characterized by the least in AC and the most in CF. The minimum and maximum differences between the two cloud methods are 10.3% for CC and 13.3% for WP. Compared to the synoptic patterns characterized by scattered cloudy and clear skies (AE and AC), the agreement of collocated cloud boundaries between the two cloud approaches tends to be better under the synoptic patterns dominated by overcast and cloudy skies (CC, WP and CB). The rainy and windy weather conditions in CF synoptic pattern influence the consistency of the two cloud retrieval methods associated with the limited capabilities inherent to the instruments. As a result, the cloud thickness distribution from the two cloud datasets compares favorably with each other in all synoptic patterns, with relative discrepancy of ≤0.3 km.« less

Cloud Properties under Different Synoptic Circulations: Comparison of Radiosonde and Ground-Based Active Remote Sensing Measurements

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Jinqiang; Li, Jun; Xia, Xiangao; ...

2016-11-28

In this study, long-term (10 years) radiosonde-based cloud data are compared with the ground-based active remote sensing product under six prevailing large-scale synoptic patterns, i.e., cyclonic center (CC), weak pressure pattern (WP), the southeast bottom of cyclonic center (CB), cold front (CF), anticyclone edge (AE) and anticyclone center (AC) over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. The synoptic patterns are generated by applying the self-organizing map weather classification method to the daily National Centers for Environmental Protection mean sea level pressure records from the North American Regional Reanalysis. It reveals that the large-scale synoptic circulations can strongly influence the regionalmore » cloud formation, and thereby have impact on the consistency of cloud retrievals from the radiosonde and ground-based cloud product. The total cloud cover at the SGP site is characterized by the least in AC and the most in CF. The minimum and maximum differences between the two cloud methods are 10.3% for CC and 13.3% for WP. Compared to the synoptic patterns characterized by scattered cloudy and clear skies (AE and AC), the agreement of collocated cloud boundaries between the two cloud approaches tends to be better under the synoptic patterns dominated by overcast and cloudy skies (CC, WP and CB). The rainy and windy weather conditions in CF synoptic pattern influence the consistency of the two cloud retrieval methods associated with the limited capabilities inherent to the instruments. As a result, the cloud thickness distribution from the two cloud datasets compares favorably with each other in all synoptic patterns, with relative discrepancy of ≤0.3 km.« less

Interpolation of Water Quality Along Stream Networks from Synoptic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyon, S. W.; Seibert, J.; Lembo, A. J.; Walter, M. T.; Gburek, W. J.; Thongs, D.; Schneiderman, E.; Steenhuis, T. S.

2005-12-01

Effective catchment management requires water quality monitoring that identifies major pollutant sources and transport and transformation processes. While traditional monitoring schemes involve regular sampling at fixed locations in the stream, there is an interest synoptic or `snapshot' sampling to quantify water quality throughout a catchment. This type of sampling enables insights to biogeochemical behavior throughout a stream network at low flow conditions. Since baseflow concentrations are temporally persistence, they are indicative of the health of the ecosystems. A major problem with snapshot sampling is the lack of analytical techniques to represent the spatially distributed data in a manner that is 1) easily understood, 2) representative of the stream network, and 3) capable of being used to develop land management scenarios. This study presents a kriging application using the landscape composition of the contributing area along a stream network to define a new distance metric. This allows for locations that are more `similar' to stay spatially close together while less similar locations `move' further apart. We analyze a snapshot sampling campaign consisting of 125 manually collected grab samples during a summer recession flow period in the Townbrook Research Watershed. The watershed is located in the Catskill region of New York State and represents the mixed forest-agriculture land uses of the region. Our initial analysis indicated that stream nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) and chemical (major cations and anions) concentrations are controlled by the composition of landscape characteristics (landuse classes and soil types) surrounding the stream. Based on these relationships, an intuitively defined distance metric is developed by combining the traditional distance between observations and the relative difference in composition of contributing area. This metric is used to interpolate between the sampling locations with traditional geostatistic techniques (semivariograms and ordinary kriging). The resulting interpolations provide continuous stream nutrient and chemical concentrations with reduced kriging RMSE (i.e., the interpolation fits the actual data better) performed without path restriction to the stream channel (i.e., the current default for most geostatistical packages) or performed with an in-channel, Euclidean distance metric (i.e., `as the fish swims' distance). In addition to being quantifiably better, the new metric also produces maps of stream concentrations that match expected continuous stream concentrations based on expert knowledge of the watershed. This analysis and its resulting stream concentration maps provide a representation of spatially distributed synoptic data that can be used to quantify water quality for more effective catchment management that focuses on pollutant sources and transport and transformation processes.

Differences in Nutrient Sources Caused by Variations in Monsoon Strength and Land Use/Land Cover, Middle Rio Grande, NM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oelsner, G. P.; Brooks, P. D.; Hogan, J. F.

2006-12-01

Synoptic sampling of the Middle Rio Grande (MRG) in central New Mexico was conducted each year during August from 2001 through 2006. Land use in the basin includes a large urban area around Albuquerque, agricultural areas, and rangeland. Because the Rio Grande is a highly managed river, the affects of land use and land cover on water quality are associated primarily with active management of river flows and water diversions and secondarily by episodic precipitation events that circumvent these management structures. A persistent monsoon regime brought heavy rains to the MRG in central New Mexico during July and August making 2006 the 8th wettest year on record for Albuquerque, NM. This summer's heavy rains increased river discharge and inputs from tributaries and ephemeral streams which served to reconnect the river to its floodplain and riparian area and transport solutes to the river from normally disconnected sources. Discharge in the Middle Rio Grande was 39 cms during the 2006 sampling event which is 250% higher than discharge during the previous sampling events. Under non-flood conditions, wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) are the primary source of nitrogen to the river. However, N loading from the Albuquerque WWTP was 40% lower in 2006 than previous years due to a decrease in effluent TDN concentrations. Tributaries had similar TDN concentrations in all years, but due to increased discharge, TDN loads from tributaries were an order of magnitude higher in 2006 and exceeded the TDN input from WWTPs. In all years, agricultural drains had lower TDN concentrations than the river water originally diverted for irrigation, suggesting that the agricultural areas function as a sink for nitrogen under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. Increased TDN concentrations and discharge rates resulted in a five-fold increase of N loading to Elephant Butte Reservoir from 1000 kgN/day to more than 5000 kgN/day. Analysis of DOC and stable isotopes of water should help to determine how hydrologic variability changes the relative role of different land uses and land covers as nutrient sources to the river.

Meteorological conditions in a thinner Arctic sea ice regime from winter to summer during the Norwegian Young Sea Ice expedition (N-ICE2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Lana; Hudson, Stephen R.; Walden, Von P.; Graham, Robert M.; Granskog, Mats A.

2017-07-01

Atmospheric measurements were made over Arctic sea ice north of Svalbard from winter to early summer (January-June) 2015 during the Norwegian Young Sea Ice (N-ICE2015) expedition. These measurements, which are available publicly, represent a comprehensive meteorological data set covering the seasonal transition in the Arctic Basin over the new, thinner sea ice regime. Winter was characterized by a succession of storms that produced short-lived (less than 48 h) temperature increases of 20 to 30 K at the surface. These storms were driven by the hemispheric scale circulation pattern with a large meridional component of the polar jet stream steering North Atlantic storms into the high Arctic. Nonstorm periods during winter were characterized by strong surface temperature inversions due to strong radiative cooling ("radiatively clear state"). The strength and depth of these inversions were similar to those during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) campaign. In contrast, atmospheric profiles during the "opaquely cloudy state" were different to those from SHEBA due to differences in the synoptic conditions and location within the ice pack. Storm events observed during spring/summer were the result of synoptic systems located in the Barents Sea and the Arctic Basin rather than passing directly over N-ICE2015. These synoptic systems were driven by a large-scale circulation pattern typical of recent years, with an Arctic Dipole pattern developing during June. Surface temperatures became near-constant 0°C on 1 June marking the beginning of summer. Atmospheric profiles during the spring and early summer show persistent lifted temperature and moisture inversions that are indicative of clouds and cloud processes.

Using Big Data to Understand the Human Condition: The Kavli HUMAN Project.

PubMed

Azmak, Okan; Bayer, Hannah; Caplin, Andrew; Chun, Miyoung; Glimcher, Paul; Koonin, Steven; Patrinos, Aristides

2015-09-01

Until now, most large-scale studies of humans have either focused on very specific domains of inquiry or have relied on between-subjects approaches. While these previous studies have been invaluable for revealing important biological factors in cardiac health or social factors in retirement choices, no single repository contains anything like a complete record of the health, education, genetics, environmental, and lifestyle profiles of a large group of individuals at the within-subject level. This seems critical today because emerging evidence about the dynamic interplay between biology, behavior, and the environment point to a pressing need for just the kind of large-scale, long-term synoptic dataset that does not yet exist at the within-subject level. At the same time that the need for such a dataset is becoming clear, there is also growing evidence that just such a synoptic dataset may now be obtainable-at least at moderate scale-using contemporary big data approaches. To this end, we introduce the Kavli HUMAN Project (KHP), an effort to aggregate data from 2,500 New York City households in all five boroughs (roughly 10,000 individuals) whose biology and behavior will be measured using an unprecedented array of modalities over 20 years. It will also richly measure environmental conditions and events that KHP members experience using a geographic information system database of unparalleled scale, currently under construction in New York. In this manner, KHP will offer both synoptic and granular views of how human health and behavior coevolve over the life cycle and why they evolve differently for different people. In turn, we argue that this will allow for new discovery-based scientific approaches, rooted in big data analytics, to improving the health and quality of human life, particularly in urban contexts.

Heat waves in Senegal : detection, characterization and associated processes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnacoussa Sambou, Marie Jeanne; Janicot, Serge; Badiane, Daouda; Pohl, Benjamin; Dieng, Abdou L.; Gaye, Amadou T.

2017-04-01

Atmospheric configuration and synoptic evolution of patterns associated with Senegalese heat wave (HW) are examined on the period 1979-2014 using the Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) observational database and ERA-Interim reanalysis. Since there is no objective and uniform definition of HW events, threshold methods based on atmospheric variables as daily maximum (Tmax) / minimum (Tmin) temperatures and daily mean apparent temperature (AT) are used to define HW threshold detection. Each criterion is related to a specific category of HW events: Tmax (warm day events), Tmin (warm night events) and AT (combining temperature and moisture). These definitions are used in order to characterize as well as possible the warm events over the Senegalese regions (oceanic versus continental region). Statistics on time evolution and spatial distribution of warm events are carried out over the 2 seasons of maximum temperature (March-May and October-November). For each season, a composite of HW events, as well as the most extended event over Senegal (as a case study) are analyzed using usual atmospheric fields (sea level pressure, geopotential height, total column water content, wind components, 2m temperature). This study is part of the project ACASIS (https://acasis.locean-ipsl.upmc.fr/doku.php) on heat waves occurrences over the Sahel and their impact on health. Keywords: heat wave, Senegal, ACASIS.

The Potential Observation Network Design with Mesoscale Ensemble Sensitivities in Complex Terrain

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

in synoptic storms , extratropical transition and developing hurricanes. Because they rely on lagged covariances from a finite-sized ensemble, they...diagnose predictors of forecast error in synoptic storms , extratropical transition and developing hurricanes. Because they rely on lagged covariances...sensitivities can be used successfully to diagnose predictors of forecast error in synoptic storms (Torn and Hakim 2008), extratropical transition (Torn and

Synoptic climatology of the long-distance dispersal of white pine blister rust I. Development of an upper level synoptic classification

Treesearch

K. L. Frank; L. S. Kalkstein; B. W. Geils; H. W. Thistle

2008-01-01

This study developed a methodology to temporally classify large scale, upper level atmospheric conditions over North America, utilizing a newly-developed upper level synoptic classification (ULSC). Four meteorological variables: geopotential height, specific humidity, and u- and v-wind components, at the 500 hPa level over North America were obtained from the NCEP/NCAR...

On the multiday haze in the Asian continental outflow: the important role of synoptic conditions combined with regional and local sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Jihoon; Kim, Jin Young; Youn, Daeok; Lee, Ji Yi; Kim, Hwajin; Lim, Yong Bin; Kim, Yumi; Cher Jin, Hyoun

2017-08-01

The air quality of the megacities in populated and industrialized regions like East Asia is affected by both local and regional emission sources. The combined effect of regional transport and local emissions on multiday haze was investigated through a synthetic analysis of PM2. 5 sampled at both an urban site in Seoul, South Korea and an upwind background site on Deokjeok Island over the Yellow Sea during a severe multiday haze episode in late February 2014. Inorganic components and carbonaceous species of daily PM2. 5 samples were measured, and gaseous pollutants, local meteorological factors, and synoptic meteorological conditions were also determined. A dominance of fine-mode particles (PM2. 5 / PM10 ˜ 0.8), a large secondary inorganic fraction (76 %), high OC / EC (> 7), and highly oxidized aerosols (oxygen-to-carbon ratio of ˜ 0.6 and organic-mass-to-carbon ratio of ˜ 1.9) under relatively warm, humid, and stagnant conditions characterize the multiday haze episode in Seoul; however, the early and late stages of the episode show different chemical compositions of PM2. 5. High concentrations of sulfate in both Seoul and the upwind background in the early stage suggest a significant regional influence on the onset of the multiday haze. At the same time, high concentrations of nitrate and organic compounds in Seoul, which are local and highly correlated with meteorological factors, suggest the contribution of local emissions and secondary formation under stagnant meteorological conditions to the haze. A slow eastward-moving high-pressure system from southern China to the East China Sea induces the regional transport of aerosols and potential gaseous precursors for secondary aerosols from the North China Plain in the early stage but provides stagnant conditions conducive to the accumulation and the local formation of aerosols in the late stage. A blocking ridge over Alaska that developed during the episode hinders the zonal propagation of synoptic-scale systems and extends the haze period to several days. This study provides chemical insights into haze development sequentially by regional transport and local sources, and shows that the synoptic condition plays an important role in the dynamical evolution of long-lasting haze in the Asian continental outflow region.

Reconstructed streamflow in the eastern United States: validity, drivers, and challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, S.; Harley, G. L.; Maxwell, J. T.; Rayback, S. A.; Pederson, N.; Cook, E. R.; Barclay, D. J.; Li, W.; Rayburn, J. A.

2015-12-01

Tree-ring reconstructions of streamflow are uncommon in the eastern US compared to the western US. While the eastern US does not experience severe drought on the scale of the west, multi-year droughts have stressed the water management systems throughout the east. Here, we reconstruct three rivers serving population centers in the northeast (Beaver Kill River serving New York City, NY), mid-Atlantic (Potomac River serving Washington, D.C.), and southeast (Flint River serving Atlanta, GA) to demonstrate the ability to reconstruct in the eastern US. Then, we conducted an interbasin comparison to identify periods of common variability and examined synoptic scale drivers of drought and pluvial events. Finally, we discuss the utility of multi-species reconstructions in the moist, biodiverse eastern US. Our calibration models explained 66 - 68% of the variance in the instrumental record and passed verification tests in all basins to 1675 CE. Drought and pluvial events showed some synchrony across all basins but the mid-Atlantic acted as a hinge, sometimes behaving more like the northeast, and other times like the southeast. Weak correlations with oceanic-atmospheric oscillations made identification of synoptic scale drivers difficult. However, there appears to be a relationship between the position of the western ridge of the North Atlantic Subtropical High and streamflow across the basins of the east. Given the many factors influencing tree growth in closed canopy systems, we have shown that careful standardization of individual tree-ring series, nested regression models, and the use of multiple species can produce robust proxies in the east.

Stable Isotope Analysis of Precipitation Samples Obtained via Crowdsourcing Reveals the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Superstorm Sandy

PubMed Central

Good, Stephen P.; Mallia, Derek V.; Lin, John C.; Bowen, Gabriel J.

2014-01-01

Extra-tropical cyclones, such as 2012 Superstorm Sandy, pose a significant climatic threat to the northeastern United Sates, yet prediction of hydrologic and thermodynamic processes within such systems is complicated by their interaction with mid-latitude water patterns as they move poleward. Fortunately, the evolution of these systems is also recorded in the stable isotope ratios of storm-associated precipitation and water vapor, and isotopic analysis provides constraints on difficult-to-observe cyclone dynamics. During Superstorm Sandy, a unique crowdsourced approach enabled 685 precipitation samples to be obtained for oxygen and hydrogen isotopic analysis, constituting the largest isotopic sampling of a synoptic-scale system to date. Isotopically, these waters span an enormous range of values (21‰ for O, 160‰ for H) and exhibit strong spatiotemporal structure. Low isotope ratios occurred predominantly in the west and south quadrants of the storm, indicating robust isotopic distillation that tracked the intensity of the storm's warm core. Elevated values of deuterium-excess (25‰) were found primarily in the New England region after Sandy made landfall. Isotope mass balance calculations and Lagrangian back-trajectory analysis suggest that these samples reflect the moistening of dry continental air entrained from a mid-latitude trough. These results demonstrate the power of rapid-response isotope monitoring to elucidate the structure and dynamics of water cycling within synoptic-scale systems and improve our understanding of storm evolution, hydroclimatological impacts, and paleo-storm proxies. PMID:24618882

Deep convection over Northern Italy: synoptic and thermodynamic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, S.; Mezzasalma, P.; Levizzani, V.; Alberoni, P. P.; Nanni, S.

Synoptic and thermodynamic characteristics of severe storm outbreaks, including supercells, over northern Italy's Po valley are examined over a 3-year period. Storms are divided into three main categories according to the most relevant associated ground phenomenon: tornado-like, hailfall and heavy rain. For each category, the most common synoptic characteristics are investigated. Sounding data are used to calculate stability indices that help define the storm's environment. Results indicate that the interaction between the synoptic flow and the steep Alpine orography is the key factor responsible for building up the mesoscale circulation that leads to different kinds of severe storms. Some of the stability indices can be regarded as predictors of intense convection.

Transport of a Power Plant Tracer Plume over Grand Canyon National Park.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jun; Bornstein, Robert; Lindsey, Charles G.

1999-08-01

Meteorological and air-quality data, as well as surface tracer concentration values, were collected during 1990 to assess the impacts of Navajo Generating Station (NGS) emissions on Grand Canyon National Park (GCNP) air quality. These data have been used in the present investigation to determine between direct and indirect transport routes taken by the NGS plume to produce measured high-tracer concentration events at GCNP.The meteorological data were used as input into a three-dimensional mass-consistent wind model, whose output was used as input into a horizontal forward-trajectory model. Calculated polluted air locations were compared with observed surface-tracer concentration values.Results show that complex-terrain features affect local wind-flow patterns during winter in the Grand Canyon area. Local channeling, decoupled canyon winds, and slope and valley flows dominate in the region when synoptic systems are weak. Direct NGS plume transport to GCNP occurs with northeasterly plume-height winds, while indirect transport to the park is caused by wind direction shifts associated with passing synoptic systems. Calculated polluted airmass positions along the modeled streak lines match measured surface-tracer observations in both space and time.

The influence of mid-latitude storm tracks on hot, cold, dry and wet extremes

PubMed Central

Lehmann, Jascha; Coumou, Dim

2015-01-01

Changes in mid-latitude circulation can strongly affect the number and intensity of extreme weather events. In particular, high-amplitude quasi-stationary planetary waves have been linked to prolonged weather extremes at the surface. In contrast, analyses of fast-traveling synoptic-scale waves and their direct influence on heat and cold extremes are scarce though changes in such waves have been detected and are projected for the 21st century. Here we apply regression analyses of synoptic activity with surface temperature and precipitation in monthly gridded observational data. We show that over large parts of mid-latitude continental regions, summer heat extremes are associated with low storm track activity. In winter, the occurrence of cold spells is related to low storm track activity over parts of eastern North America, Europe, and central- to eastern Asia. Storm tracks thus have a moderating effect on continental temperatures. Pronounced storm track activity favors monthly rainfall extremes throughout the year, whereas dry spells are associated with a lack thereof. Trend analyses reveal significant regional changes in recent decades favoring the occurrence of cold spells in the eastern US, droughts in California and heat extremes over Eurasia. PMID:26657163

Classification of weather patterns to study the influence of meteorological characteristics on PM2.5 concentrations in Yunlin County, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Chia-Hua; Cheng, Fang-Yi

2016-11-01

Yunlin County is located in the central part of western Taiwan with major emissions from the Mailiao industrial park, the Taichung Power Plants and heavy traffic. In order to understand the influence of meteorological conditions on PM2.5 concentrations in Yunlin County, we applied a two-stage cluster analysis method using the daily averaged surface winds from four air quality monitoring stations in Yunlin County to classify the weather pattern. The study period includes 1095 days from Jan 2013 to December 2015. The classification results show that the low PM2.5 concentration occurs when the synoptic weather in Taiwan is affected by the strong southwesterly monsoonal flow. The high PM2.5 concentration occurs when Taiwan is under the influence of weak synoptic weather conditions and continental high-pressure peripheral circulation. A high PM2.5 event was studied and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model was performed. The result indicated that due to being blocked by the Central Mountain Range, Yunlin County, which is situated on the leeside of the mountains, exhibits low wind speed and strong subsidence behavior that favors PM2.5 accumulation.

Synoptic Sun during the first Whole Sun Month Campaign: August 10 to September 8, 1996

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biesecker, D. A.; Thompson, B. J.; Gibson, S. E.; Alexander, D.; Fludra, A.; Gopalswamy, N.; Hoeksema, J. T.; Lecinski, A.; Strachan, L.

1999-05-01

A large number of synoptic maps from a variety of instruments are used to show the general morphology of the Sun at the time of the First Whole Sun Month Campaign. The campaign was conducted from August 10 to September 8, 1996. The synoptic maps cover the period from Carrington rotation 1912/253° to Carrington rotation 1913/45°. The synoptic maps encompass both on-disk data and limb data from several heights in the solar atmosphere. The maps are used to illustrate which wavelengths and data sets show particular features, such as active regions and coronal holes. Of particular interest is the equatorial coronal hole known as the ``elephant's trunk,'' which is clearly evident in the synoptic maps of on-disk data. The elephant's trunk is similar in appearance to the Skylab-era, ``Boot of Italy,'' equatorial coronal hole. The general appearance of the limb maps is explained as well. The limb maps also show evidence for equatorial coronal holes.

Synoptic maps for the heliospheric Thomson scattering brightness as observed by the Helios photometers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hick, P.; Jackson, B. V.; Schwenn, R.

1991-01-01

A method for displaying the electron Thomson scattering intensity in the inner heliosphere as observed by the zodiacal light photometers on board the Helios spacecraft in the form of synoptic maps is presented. The method is based on the assumption that the bulk of the scattering electrons along the line of sight is located near the point closest to the sun. Inner-heliospheric structures will generally be represented properly in these synoptic maps only if they are sufficiently long-lived (that is, a significant fraction of a solar rotation period). The examples of Helios synoptic maps discussed (from data in April 1976 and November 1978), indicate that it is possible to identify large-scale, long-lived density enhancements in the inner heliosphere. It is expected that the Helios synoptic maps will be particularly useful in the study of corotating structures (e.g., streamers), and the maps will be most reliable during periods when few transient featurs are present in the corona, i.e., during solar minimum.

Evaluation of total phosphorus mass balance in the lower Boise River and selected tributaries, southwestern Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Etheridge, Alexandra B.

2013-01-01

he U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Idaho Department of Environmental Quality, developed spreadsheet mass-balance models for total phosphorus using results from three synoptic sampling periods conducted in the lower Boise River watershed during August and October 2012, and March 2013. The modeling reach spanned 46.4 river miles (RM) along the Boise River from Veteran’s Memorial Parkway in Boise, Idaho (RM 50.2), to Parma, Idaho (RM 3.8). The USGS collected water-quality samples and measured streamflow at 14 main-stem Boise River sites, two Boise River north channel sites, two sites on the Snake River upstream and downstream of its confluence with the Boise River, and 17 tributary and return-flow sites. Additional samples were collected from treated effluent at six wastewater treatment plants and two fish hatcheries. The Idaho Department of Water Resources quantified diversion flows in the modeling reach. Total phosphorus mass-balance models were useful tools for evaluating sources of phosphorus in the Boise River during each sampling period. The timing of synoptic sampling allowed the USGS to evaluate phosphorus inputs to and outputs from the Boise River during irrigation season, shortly after irrigation ended, and soon before irrigation resumed. Results from the synoptic sampling periods showed important differences in surface-water and groundwater distribution and phosphorus loading. In late August 2012, substantial streamflow gains to the Boise River occurred from Middleton (RM 31.4) downstream to Parma (RM 3.8). Mass-balance model results indicated that point and nonpoint sources (including groundwater) contributed phosphorus loads to the Boise River during irrigation season. Groundwater exchange within the Boise River in October 2012 and March 2013 was not as considerable as that measured in August 2012. However, groundwater discharge to agricultural tributaries and drains during non-irrigation season was a large source of discharge and phosphorus in the lower Boise River in October 2012 and March 2013. Model results indicate that point sources represent the largest contribution of phosphorus to the Boise River year round, but that reductions in point and nonpoint source phosphorus loads may be necessary to achieve seasonal total phosphorus concentration targets at Parma (RM 3.8) from May 1 through September 30, as set by the 2004 Snake River-Hells Canyon Total Maximum Daily Load document. The mass-balance models do not account for biological or depositional instream processes, but are useful indicators of locations where appreciable phosphorus uptake or release by aquatic plants may occur.

Landslides in West Coast Metropolitan Areas: The Role of Extreme Weather Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biasutti, Michela; Seager, Richard; Kirschbaum, Dalia B.

2016-01-01

Rainfall-induced landslides represent a pervasive issue in areas where extreme rainfall intersects complex terrain. A farsighted management of landslide risk requires assessing how landslide hazard will change in coming decades and thus requires, inter alia, that we understand what rainfall events are most likely to trigger landslides and how global warming will affect the frequency of such weather events. We take advantage of 9 years of landslide occurrence data compiled by collating Google news reports and of a high-resolution satellite-based daily rainfall data to investigate what weather triggers landslide along the West Coast US. We show that, while this landslide compilation cannot provide consistent and widespread monitoring everywhere, it captures enough of the events in the major urban areas that it can be used to identify the relevant relationships between landslides and rainfall events in Puget Sound, the Bay Area, and greater Los Angeles. In all these regions, days that recorded landslides have rainfall distributions that are skewed away from dry and low-rainfall accumulations and towards heavy intensities. However, large daily accumulation is the main driver of enhanced hazard of landslides only in Puget Sound. There, landslide are often clustered in space and time and major events are primarily driven by synoptic scale variability, namely "atmospheric rivers" of high humidity air hitting anywhere along the West Coast, and the interaction of frontal system with the coastal orography. The relationship between landslide occurrences and daily rainfall is less robust in California, where antecedent precipitation (in the case of the Bay area) and the peak intensity of localized downpours at sub-daily time scales (in the case of Los Angeles) are key factors not captured by the same-day accumulations. Accordingly, we suggest that the assessment of future changes in landslide hazard for the entire the West Coast requires consideration of future changes in the occurrence and intensity of atmospheric rivers, in their duration and clustering, and in the occurrence of short-duration (sub-daily) extreme rainfall as well. Major regional landslide events, in which multiple occurrences are recorded in the catalog for the same day, are too rare to allow a statistical characterization of their triggering events, but a case study analysis indicates that a variety of synoptic-scale events can be involved, including not only atmospheric rivers but also broader cold- and warm-front precipitation. That a news-based catalog of landslides is accurate enough to allow the identification of different landslide/ rainfall relationships in the major urban areas along the US West Coast suggests that this technology can potentially be used for other English-language cities and could become an even more powerful tool if expanded to other languages and non-traditional news sources, such as social media.

Using synoptic weather types to predict visitor attendance at Atlanta and Indianapolis zoological parks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perkins, David R.

2018-01-01

Defining an ideal "tourism climate" has been an often-visited research topic where explanations have evolved from global- to location-specific indices tailored to tourists' recreational behavior. Unfortunately, as indices become increasingly specific, they are less translatable across geographies because they may only apply to specific activities, locales, climates, or populations. A key need in the future development of weather and climate indices for tourism has been a translatable, meteorologically based index capturing the generalized ambient atmospheric conditions yet considering local climatology. To address this need, this paper tests the applicability of the spatial synoptic classification (SSC) as a tool to predict visitor attendance response in the tourism, recreation, and leisure (TRL) sector across different climate regimes. Daily attendance data is paired with the prevailing synoptic weather condition at Atlanta and Indianapolis zoological parks from September 2001 to June 2011, to review potential impacts ambient atmospheric conditions may have on visitor attendances. Results indicate that "dry moderate" conditions are most associated with high levels of attendance and "moist polar" synoptic conditions are most associated with low levels of attendance at both zoological parks. Comparing visitor response at these zoo locations, visitors in Indianapolis showed lower levels of tolerance to synoptic conditions which were not "ideal." Visitors in Indianapolis also displayed more aversion to "polar" synoptic regimes while visitors in Atlanta displayed more tolerance to "moist tropical" synoptic regimes. Using a comprehensive atmospheric measure such as the SSC may be a key to broadening application when assessing tourism climates across diverse geographies.

Using synoptic weather types to predict visitor attendance at Atlanta and Indianapolis zoological parks.

PubMed

Perkins, David R

2018-01-01

Defining an ideal "tourism climate" has been an often-visited research topic where explanations have evolved from global- to location-specific indices tailored to tourists' recreational behavior. Unfortunately, as indices become increasingly specific, they are less translatable across geographies because they may only apply to specific activities, locales, climates, or populations. A key need in the future development of weather and climate indices for tourism has been a translatable, meteorologically based index capturing the generalized ambient atmospheric conditions yet considering local climatology. To address this need, this paper tests the applicability of the spatial synoptic classification (SSC) as a tool to predict visitor attendance response in the tourism, recreation, and leisure (TRL) sector across different climate regimes. Daily attendance data is paired with the prevailing synoptic weather condition at Atlanta and Indianapolis zoological parks from September 2001 to June 2011, to review potential impacts ambient atmospheric conditions may have on visitor attendances. Results indicate that "dry moderate" conditions are most associated with high levels of attendance and "moist polar" synoptic conditions are most associated with low levels of attendance at both zoological parks. Comparing visitor response at these zoo locations, visitors in Indianapolis showed lower levels of tolerance to synoptic conditions which were not "ideal." Visitors in Indianapolis also displayed more aversion to "polar" synoptic regimes while visitors in Atlanta displayed more tolerance to "moist tropical" synoptic regimes. Using a comprehensive atmospheric measure such as the SSC may be a key to broadening application when assessing tourism climates across diverse geographies.

Development of a Water Clarity Index for the Southeastern U.S. As a Climate Indicator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, S. C.; Hu, C.; Lee, C. C.; Barnes, B.; Pirhalla, D.; Ransi, V.; Shein, K. A.

2014-12-01

A common index of water quality is water clarity, which can be estimated by measuring the diffuse attenuation coefficient for downwelling irradiance (Kd). Kd estimates the availability of light to marine organisms at various depths. Marine habitats, including such species as coral and seagrass, can be negatively affected by extreme episodes of sediment suspension, where water clarity is reduced and little light penetrates. Evidence of increased stress on coastal ecosystems exists, partially due to climate change, yet a systematic analysis of extreme events and trends is difficult due to limited data. To address this concern, we have developed as a potential climate indicator a Kd-Index for nine regions along the US coast of the Gulf of Mexico, in which Kd values have been standardized over time and space to allow for a more holistic assessment of climate drivers and their trends. Variability in the Kd-Index is then assessed with regard to occurrences of surface weather types (using the Spatial Synoptic Classification), a synoptic climatology of mean sea-level-pressure patterns across the region, along with heavy precipitation events. Kd can be estimated from MODIS and SeaWiFS observations from 1997 to date; an earlier period of satellite observations from 1978-86 is also available. A non-linear autoregressive neural network model with external input (NARX) is used to develop the historical relationship between Kd-Index and atmospheric conditions, and then this model is used to simulate a full time series from 1948 to 2013. The modeled data set is strongly correlated with observations, with correlations above 0.8 for many regions. Hit rates of extreme Kd-Index values - those which would most likely be associated with a negative environmental impact - exceed 70% in some regions. Across the full data set, long term trends vary slightly across regions but are generally small. Trends in extreme events appear to be more consistently increasing across the domain.

Local-scale analysis of temperature patterns over Poland during heatwave events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krzyżewska, Agnieszka; Dyer, Jamie

2018-01-01

Heatwaves are predicted to increase in frequency, duration, and severity in the future, including over Central Europe where populations are sensitive to extreme temperature. This paper studies six recent major heatwave events over Poland from 2006 through 2015 using regional-scale simulations (10-km grid spacing, hourly frequency) from the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to define local-scale 2-m temperature patterns. For this purpose, a heatwave is defined as at least three consecutive days with maximum 2-m air temperature exceeding 30 °C. The WRF simulations were validated using maximum daily 2-m temperature observations from 12 meteorological stations in select Polish cities, which were selected to have even spatial coverage across the study area. Synoptic analysis of the six study events shows that the inflow of tropical air masses from the south is the primary driver of heatwave onset and maintenance, the highest temperatures (and most vulnerable areas) occur over arable land and artificial surfaces in central and western Poland, while coastal areas in the north, mountain areas in the south, and forested and mosaic areas of smaller fields and pastures of the northwest, northeast, and southeast are less affected by prolonged periods of elevated temperatures. In general, regional differences in 2-m temperature between the hottest and coolest areas is about 2-4 °C. Large urban areas like Warsaw, or the large complex of artificial areas in the conurbation of Silesian cities, are also generally warmer than surrounding areas by roughly 2-4 °C, and even up to 6 °C, especially during the night. Additionally, hot air from the south of Poland flows through a low-lying area between two mountain ranges (Sudetes and Carpathian Mountains)—the so-called Moravian Gate—hitting densely populated urban areas (Silesian cities) and Cracow. These patterns occur only during high-pressure synoptic conditions with low cloudiness and wind and without any active fronts or mesoscale convective disturbances.

Observations of Lake-Breeze Events During the Toronto 2015 Pan-American Games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariani, Zen; Dehghan, Armin; Joe, Paul; Sills, David

2018-01-01

Enhanced meteorological observations were made during the 2015 Pan and Parapan American Games in Toronto in order to measure the vertical and horizontal structure of lake-breeze events. Two scanning Doppler lidars (one fixed and one mobile), a C-band radar, and a network including 53 surface meteorological stations (mesonet) provided pressure, temperature, humidity, and wind speed and direction measurements over Lake Ontario and urban areas. These observations captured the full evolution (prior, during, and after) of 27 lake-breeze events (73% of observation days) in order to characterize the convective and dynamic processes driving lake breezes at the local scale and mesoscale. The dominant signal of a passing lake-breeze front (LBF) was an increase in dew-point temperature of 2.3 ± 0.3°C, coinciding with a 180° shift in wind direction and a decrease in air temperature of 2.1 ± 0.2°C. Doppler lidar observations over the lake detected lake breezes 1 hour (on average) before detection by radar and mesonet. On days with the synoptic flow in the offshore direction, the lidars observed wedge-shaped LBFs with shallow depths, which inhibited the radar's ability to detect the lake breeze. The LBF's ground speed and inland penetration distance were found to be well-correlated (r = 0.78), with larger inland penetration distances occurring on days with non-opposing (non-offshore) synoptic flow. The observed enhanced vertical motion ({>} 1 m s^{-1}) at the LBF, observed by the lidar on 54% of lake-breeze days, was greater (at times {>} 2.5 m s^{-1}) than that observed in previous studies and longer-lasting over the lake than over land. The weaker and less pronounced lake-breeze structure over land is illustrated in two case studies highlighting the lifetime of the lake-breeze circulation and the impact of propagation distance on lake-breeze intensity.

Linking storm surge activity and circulation variability along the Spanish coast through a synoptic pattern classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasilla Álvarez, Domingo; Garcia Codrón, Juan Carlos

2010-05-01

The potentially negative consequences resulting from the estimations of global sea level rising along the current century are a matter of serious concern in many coastal areas worldwide. Most of the negative consequences of the sea level variability, such as flooding or erosion, are linked to episodic events of strong atmospheric forcing represented by deep atmospheric disturbances, especially if they combine with extreme astronomical high tides. Moreover, the interaction between the prevailing flows during such events and the actual orientation of the coast line might accelerate or mitigate such impacts. This contribution analyses sea surge variations measured at five tide-gauge stations located around the Iberian Peninsula and their relationships with regional scale circulation patterns with local-scale winds. Its aim is to improve the knowledge of surge related-coastal-risks by analysing the relationship between surges and their atmospheric forcing factors at different spatial scales. The oceanographic data set consists of hourly data from 5 tide gauge stations (Santander, Vigo, Bonanza, Málaga, Valencia and Barcelona) disseminated along the Spanish coastline, provided by Puertos del Estado. To explore the atmospheric mechanisms responsible for the sign and magnitude of sea surges, a regional Eulerian approach (a synoptic typing) were combined with a larger-scale Lagrangian method, based on the analysis of storm-tracks over the Atlantic and local information (synop reports) obtained from the closest meteorological stations to the tide gauges. The synoptic catalogue was obtained following a procedure that combines Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for reduction purposes and clustering (Ward plus K-means) to define the circulation types. Sea level pressure, surface 10m U and V wind components gridded data were obtained from NCEP Reanalysis, while storm tracks and cyclone statistics were extracted from the CDC Map Room Climate Products Storm Track Data (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/st_data.html). The second task was to evaluate the performance of each circulation type on the spatial patterns of a daily fire danger risk index (Canadian Fire Weather Index, FWI). Finally, anomaly maps of several surface and low level climate variables, corresponding to the dates of ignition of the very large forest fires within each synoptic pattern, were calculated to provide insight of the specific conditions associated to those extreme events. A principal component analysis upon 6 hourly residuals highlighted the homogeneous behaviour of the tide gauges and provided a regional quantitative index to identify the largest storm surges. The leading PCA displayed a homogeneous spatial pattern, describing the low frequency variability along the entire coast, in spite of different orientations of the coast, accounting for more than 80% of the total variability. The second PCA displayed opposite phases between the Atlantic and the Mediterranean. Furthermore, the results suggest that surges are a regional rather than local phenomenon, probably related to the same single physical forcing. The comparison between extreme surge events and circulation patterns highlighted that single physical mechanism is represented by extratropical cyclonic disturbances located at the north-western corner of the Iberian Peninsula, responsible for an environment characterized by low pressure readings and westerly-southwesterly winds. That wind pattern acquires an onshore component in the Atlantic coast, but becomes offshore in the Mediterranean. So, the main mechanism responsible for those storm surges is the inverse barometer effect, being the wind dragging secondary. The main physical forcing of the storm surges, the extratropical cyclones, have experience a reduction of this frequency and a marked reduction in their strength since 1950, replaced by stable circulations. Both conditions suggest a long term reduction of the frequency and the magnitude of storm surges.

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope Science Requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyson, J. A.; LSST Collaboration

2004-12-01

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) is a wide-field telescope facility that will add a qualitatively new capability in astronomy and will address some of the most pressing open questions in astronomy and fundamental physics. The 8.4-meter telescope and 3 billion pixel camera covering ten square degrees will reach sky in less than 10 seconds in each of 5-6 optical bands. This is enabled by advances in microelectronics, software, and large optics fabrication. The unprecedented optical throughput drives LSST's ability to go faint-wide-fast. The LSST will produce time-lapse digital imaging of faint astronomical objects across the entire visible sky with good resolution. For example, the LSST will provide unprecedented 3-dimensional maps of the mass distribution in the Universe, in addition to the traditional images of luminous stars and galaxies. These weak lensing data can be used to better understand the nature of Dark Energy. The LSST will also provide a comprehensive census of our solar system. By surveying deeply the entire accessible sky every few nights, the LSST will provide large samples of events which we now only rarely observe, and will create substantial potential for new discoveries. The LSST will produce the largest non-proprietary data set in the world. Several key science drivers are representative of the LSST system capabilities: Precision Characterization of Dark Energy, Solar System Map, Optical Transients, and a map of our Galaxy and its environs. In addition to enabling all four of these major scientific initiatives, LSST will make it possible to pursue many other research programs. The community has suggested a number of exciting programs using these data, and the long-lived data archives of the LSST will have the astrometric and photometric precision needed to support entirely new research directions which will inevitably develop during the next several decades.

Selected Water-Quality Data from the Cedar River and Cedar Rapids Well Fields, Cedar Rapids, Iowa, 1999-2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Littin, Gregory R.; Schnoebelen, Douglas J.

2010-01-01

The Cedar River alluvial aquifer is the primary source of municipal water in the Cedar Rapids, Iowa area. Municipal wells are completed in the alluvial aquifer at approximately 40 to 80 feet deep. The City of Cedar Rapids and the U.S. Geological Survey have been conducting a cooperative study of the groundwater-flow system and water quality near the well fields since 1992. Previous cooperative studies between the City of Cedar Rapids and the U.S. Geological Survey have documented hydrologic and water-quality data, geochemistry, and groundwater models. Water-quality samples were collected for studies involving well field monitoring, trends, source-water protection, groundwater geochemistry, evaluation of surface and ground-water interaction, assessment of pesticides in groundwater and surface water, and to evaluate water quality near a wetland area in the Seminole well field. Typical water-quality analyses included major ions (boron, bromide, calcium, chloride, fluoride, iron, magnesium, manganese, potassium, silica, sodium, and sulfate), nutrients (ammonia as nitrogen, nitrite as nitrogen, nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen, and orthophosphate as phosphorus), dissolved organic carbon, and selected pesticides including two degradates of the herbicide atrazine. In addition, two synoptic samplings included analyses of additional pesticide degradates in water samples. Physical field parameters (alkalinity, dissolved oxygen, pH, specific conductance and water temperature) were recorded with each water sample collected. This report presents the results of water quality data-collection activities from January 1999 through December 2005. Methods of data collection, quality-assurance samples, water-quality analyses, and statistical summaries are presented. Data include the results of water-quality analyses from quarterly and synoptic sampling from monitoring wells, municipal wells, and the Cedar River.

Increasing potential predictability of Indian Summer monsoon active and break spells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mani, N. J.; Goswami, B.

2009-12-01

An understanding of the limit on potential predictability is crucial for developing appropriate tools for extended range prediction of active/break spells of Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The global low frequency changes in climate modulate the annual cycle of the ISM and can influence the intrinsic predictability limit of the ISM intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs). Using 104 year (1901-2004) long daily rainfall data, the change in potential predictability of active and break spells are estimated by an empirical method. Using an ISO index based on 10-90 day filtered precipitation, Goswami and Xavier (2003)showed that the monsoon breaks are intrinsically more predictable (20-25 days) than the active conditions (10-15 days. In the present study, employing the same method in 15 year sliding windows, we found that the potential predictability of both active and break spells have undergone a rapid increase during the recent three decades. The potential predictability of active spells has shown an increase from 1 week to 2 weeks while that for break spells increased from 2 weeks to 3 weeks. This result is interesting and intriguing in the backdrop of recent finding that the potential predictability of monsoon weather has decreased substantially over the same period compared to earlier decades due to increased potential instability of the atmosphere. The possible role of internal dynamics and external forcing in producing this change has been explored. The variance among peak active/break conditions shows a steady decrease over the years, indicating a lesser event to event variability in the magnitude of ISO peak phases in recent years. The ISO predictability may be closely linked to the error energy cascading from the synoptic scales and the interaction between these scales. Computation of nonlinear kinetic energy exchange between synoptic and ISO scales in frequency domain, also support the notion of ineffectual influence of synoptic scale errors on the ISO scale.Ref: Goswami, B N and P K Xavier, 2003,GRL. 30(18), 1966, doi:10.1029/2003GL017,810, 2003. Fig 1. Change in potential predictability of rainfall ISO through a 15 year sliding window. a) potential predictability for evolution from active to break b) potential predictability for evolution from break to active.

Major cause of unprecedented Arctic warming in January 2016: Critical role of an Atlantic windstorm

PubMed Central

Kim, Baek-Min; Hong, Ja-Young; Jun, Sang-Yoon; Zhang, Xiangdong; Kwon, Hataek; Kim, Seong-Joong; Kim, Joo-Hong; Kim, Sang-Woo; Kim, Hyun-Kyung

2017-01-01

In January 2016, the Arctic experienced an extremely anomalous warming event after an extraordinary increase in air temperature at the end of 2015. During this event, a strong intrusion of warm and moist air and an increase in downward longwave radiation, as well as a loss of sea ice in the Barents and Kara seas, were observed. Observational analyses revealed that the abrupt warming was triggered by the entry of a strong Atlantic windstorm into the Arctic in late December 2015, which brought enormous moist and warm air masses to the Arctic. Although the storm terminated at the eastern coast of Greenland in late December, it was followed by a prolonged blocking period in early 2016 that sustained the extreme Arctic warming. Numerical experiments indicate that the warming effect of sea ice loss and associated upward turbulent heat fluxes are relatively minor in this event. This result suggests the importance of the synoptically driven warm and moist air intrusion into the Arctic as a primary contributing factor of this extreme Arctic warming event. PMID:28051170

The effect of water temperature and synoptic winds on the development of surface flows over narrow, elongated water bodies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Segal, M.; Pielke, R. A.

1985-01-01

Simulations of the thermally induced breeze involved with a relatively narrow, elongated water body is presented in conjunction with evaluations of sensible heat fluxes in a stable marine atmospheric surface layer. The effect of the water surface temperature and of the large-scale synoptic winds on the development of surface flows over the water is examined. As implied by the sensible heat flux patterns, the simulation results reveal the following trends: (1) when the synoptic flow is absent or light, the induced surface breeze is not affected noticeably by a reduction of the water surface temperature; and (2) for stronger synoptic flow, the resultant surface flow may be significantly affected by the water surface temperature.

Arctic Haze: Natural or Pollution?

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-08-01

plus particulate) at that time are the highest observed anywhere. A natural marine source seems likely. Aircraft samples from the Eurasian Arctic allowed...Barrow with prominent synoptic features -22- which favored organized transport. He was also able to correlate the seasonal cycle of the noncrustal Mn/V...ratio at Barrow with the westward migration of these features across Eurasia during winter. The URI studies showed that different kinds of pollution

Molybdenum Hazards to Fish, Wildlife, and Invertebrates: A Synoptic Review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eisler, R.

1989-01-01

Ecological and toxicological aspects of molybdenum (Mo) in the environment are briefly reviewed, with emphasis on fish and wildlife. Subtopics include sources and uses, chemical properties, mode of action, background concentrations in biological and nonbiological samples, and lethal and sublethal effects on terrestrial plants and invertebrates, aquatic organisms, birds, and mammals. Current recommendations for Mo and the protection of sensitive living resources are presented.

NASA's AVE 7 experiment: 25-mb sounding data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, J. G.; Fuelberg, H. E.; Turner, R. E.

1978-01-01

The AVE 7 Experiment is described and tabulated rawinsonde data at 25 mb internals from the surface to 25 mb for the 24 stations participating in the experiment are presented. Soundings were taken between 0000GMT May 2 and 1200 GMT May 3, 1978. The methods of data processing and the accuracy are briefly discussed. Selected synoptic charts prepared from the data are presented as well as an example of contact data. A tabulation of adverse weather events that occured during the AVE 7 period, including freezing temperature, snow, tornadoes, damaging winds, and flooding, is presented.

Extreme fog events in Poland with respect to circulation conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ustrnul, Z.; Czekierda, D.; Wypych, A.

2010-09-01

Fog is a phenomenon which belongs to a group of so-called hydrometeorites and, according to the different dictionaries, it is a suspension of water droplets or ice crystals in the ground layer of the air that impairs visibility in the horizontal direction below 1 km. The phenomenon of fog, although much less dynamic or violent than other extreme phenomena, such as thunderstorms or hail, is equally dangerous and brings about huge social and economic complications. Land and air transportation suffer and fog may sometimes leads to a complete crippling of the whole economy in an area where fog occurs. The main objective of the study is determination of the circulation types bringing extreme fog events in Poland. The duration of fog at each meteorological station was considered as the main input data originated from 54 synoptic stations located across the country. The mentioned data series cover the period of 56 years (1951-2006). The occurrence of fog depends on meteorological conditions caused to a large extent by a given synoptic situation and local terrain conditions. In this study, according to its objectives, only circulation conditions are taken into consideration. These have been described by 5 different circulation classifications (Grosswetterlagen, Litynski, Osuchowska-Klein, Niedzwiedz and Ustrnul). Situations when this phenomenon occurred across a large part of the country were taken into detailed consideration. Special attention was paid to fog coverage during 24-hour periods. In this work, in light of certain doubts about the homogeneity of the observation material available, the intensity of fog was not included, as it requires additional and very tedious analysis. In the first step all cases of fog during the 1966-2006 study period which lasted 24 hours at more than 10 of the considered weather stations, i.e: at least 5 stations have been considered. As expected, in most cases, either a centre of a classical high pressure system or a high pressure wedge prevailed over Poland. In many cases, the dominance of baric patterns with advection from the eastern or southern sectors can be observed. Only in a few cases does a type with advection from the western sector come into play. In summary, it can be stated that intensive extreme fog of long duration occurred first of all in high pressure non-advective situations or along with weak advection, mainly from the southern or eastern direction. This statement, however, is not revolutionary. It simply confirms that the most troublesome of fog types is the radiation type, and can cover all of Poland at the same time and last up to several days. The study contains detailed meteorological-synoptic analyses of the most extreme events during the whole investigated period.

Cold Season Ground Validation Activities in support of GPM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudak, D. R.; Petersen, W. A.

2012-12-01

A fundamental component of the next-generation global precipitation data products that will be addressed by the GPM mission is the hydrologic cycle at higher latitudes. In this respect, falling snow represents a primary contribution to regional atmospheric and terrestrial water budgets. The current study provides provide information on the precipitation microphysics and processes associated with cold season precipitation and precipitating cloud systems across multiple scales. It also addresses the ability of in-situ ground-based sensors as well as multi-frequency active and passive microwave sensors to detect and estimate falling snow, and more generally to contribute to our knowledge and understanding of the complete global water cycle. The work supports the incorporation of appropriate physics into GPM snowfall retrieval algorithms and the development of improved ground validation techniques for GPM product evaluation. Important information for developing GPM falling snow retrieval algorithms will be provided by a field campaign that took place in the winter of 2011/12 in the Great Lakes area of North America, termed the GPM Cold Season Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx). GCPEx represented a collaboration among the NASA, Environment Canada (EC), the Canadian Space Agency and several US, Canadian and European universities. The data collection strategy for GCPEx was coordinated, stacked high-altitude and in-situ cloud aircraft missions sampling within a broader network of ground-based volumetric observations and measurements. The NASA DSC-8 research aircraft provided a platform for the downward-viewing dual-frequency radar and multi-frequency radiometer observations. The University of North Dakota Citation and the Canadian NRC Convair-580 aircraft provided in-situ profiles of cloud and precipitation microphysics using a suite of optical array probes and bulk measurement instrumentation. Ground sampling was focused about a densely-instrumented central location that is well situated within both mid-latitude synoptic and lake-effect snowfall regimes. The instrumentation suite at CARE included active remote sensing observations as follows: W, Ku, and X-band vertically pointing radars, a Ku and Ka-band dual polarization full scanning radar, and nearby C-band dual polarization, scanning radar. The passive remote sensing suite includes a triple channel profiling microwave radiometer (10, 21, 36 GHz), and a dual channel polarization radiometer (89 and 150 GHz). In-situ measurements at CARE include a 2D video disdrometer, the Precipitation Video Imager, digital photography and a number of other technologies that estimate instantaneous precipitation rate. GCPEX collected ground-based data on 22 distinct precipitation events, 2 rain, 3 mixed and 17 snow. For 16 of these events, there were also aircraft observations. In addition, there were two clear air flights. The presentation will provide an overview of the data collection. It will also summarize the ground-based event precipitation estimates from various sensors as compared to a manual double fence reference to assess measurement uncertainties. Examples will be presented from radar and aircraft in-situ data highlighting the variability of snowfall characteristics relative to the synoptic context. Plans for ongoing validation studies with the WMO Solid Precipitation Intercomparison Experiment beginning in 2013 will be described.

Detection of emerging sunspot regions in the solar interior.

PubMed

Ilonidis, Stathis; Zhao, Junwei; Kosovichev, Alexander

2011-08-19

Sunspots are regions where strong magnetic fields emerge from the solar interior and where major eruptive events occur. These energetic events can cause power outages, interrupt telecommunication and navigation services, and pose hazards to astronauts. We detected subsurface signatures of emerging sunspot regions before they appeared on the solar disc. Strong acoustic travel-time anomalies of an order of 12 to 16 seconds were detected as deep as 65,000 kilometers. These anomalies were associated with magnetic structures that emerged with an average speed of 0.3 to 0.6 kilometer per second and caused high peaks in the photospheric magnetic flux rate 1 to 2 days after the detection of the anomalies. Thus, synoptic imaging of subsurface magnetic activity may allow anticipation of large sunspot regions before they become visible, improving space weather forecast.

Energy History Chronology from World War II to the Present [1982

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Dean, P. C.

1982-08-01

This report provides a basic guide to the major Presidential, Legislative, Judicial, and Federal agency actions relating to energy policy, research, development, and regulation in recent years. The chronology is arranged synoptically, allowing users to reference easily the historical context in which each event occurred. Summaries of Presidential, Legislative, and Judicial actions relating to energy, rosters of federal energy officials, and a genealogy of federal energy agencies are also provided in separate appendices. The Energy History Chronology was prepared in conjunction with the History Division's series of pamphlets on the Institutional Origins of the Department of Energy. The series includes concise histories of the Department of Energy, the Energy Research and Development Administration, the Federal Energy Administration, and the Atomic Energy Commission. All significant events and achievements noted in the institutional history are also listed.

Synoptic volumetric variations and flushing of the Tampa Bay estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, M.; Meyers, S. D.; Luther, M. E.

2014-03-01

Two types of analyses are used to investigate the synoptic wind-driven flushing of Tampa Bay in response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle from 1950 to 2007. Hourly sea level elevations from the St. Petersburg tide gauge, and wind speed and direction from three different sites around Tampa Bay are used for the study. The zonal (u) and meridional (v) wind components are rotated clockwise by 40° to obtain axial and co-axial components according to the layout of the bay. First, we use the subtidal observed water level as a proxy for mean tidal height to estimate the rate of volumetric bay outflow. Second, we use wavelet analysis to bandpass sea level and wind data in the time-frequency domain to isolate the synoptic sea level and surface wind variance. For both analyses the long-term monthly climatology is removed and we focus on the volumetric and wavelet variance anomalies. The overall correlation between the Oceanic Niño Index and volumetric analysis is small due to the seasonal dependence of the ENSO response. The mean monthly climatology between the synoptic wavelet variance of elevation and axial winds are in close agreement. During the winter, El Niño (La Niña) increases (decreases) the synoptic variability, but decreases (increases) it during the summer. The difference in winter El Niño/La Niña wavelet variances is about 20 % of the climatological value, meaning that ENSO can swing the synoptic flushing of the bay by 0.22 bay volumes per month. These changes in circulation associated with synoptic variability have the potential to impact mixing and transport within the bay.

Relationship between AOD and synoptic circulation over the Eastern Mediterranean: A comparison between subjective and objective classifications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodenheimer, Shalev; Nirel, Ronit; Lensky, Itamar M.; Dayan, Uri

2018-03-01

The Eastern Mediterranean (EM) Basin is strongly affected by dust originating from two of the largest world sources: The Sahara Desert and the Arabian Peninsula. Climatologically, the distribution pattern of aerosol optical depth (AOD), as proxy to particulate matter (PM), is known to be correlated with synoptic circulation. The climatological relationship between circulation type classifications (CTCs) and AOD levels over the EM Basin ("synoptic skill") was examined for the years 2000-2014. We compared the association between subjective (expert-based) and objective (fully automated) classifications and AOD using autoregressive models. After seasonal adjustment, the mean values of R2 for the different methods were similar. However, the distinct spatial pattern of the R2 values suggests that subjective classifications perform better in their area of expertise, specifically in the southeast region of the study area, while, objective CTCs had better synoptic skill over the northern part of the EM. This higher synoptic skill of subjective CTCs stem from their ability to identify distinct circulation types (e.g. Sharav lows and winter lows) that are infrequent but are highly correlated with AOD. Notably, a simple CTC based on seasonality rather than meteorological parameters predicted well AOD levels, especially over the south-eastern part of the domain. Synoptic classifications that are area-oriented are likely better predictors of AOD and possibly other environmental variables.

Synoptic weather types and aeroallergens modify the effect of air pollution on hospitalisations for asthma hospitalisations in Canadian cities.

PubMed

Hebbern, Christopher; Cakmak, Sabit

2015-09-01

Pollution levels and the effect of air pollution on human health can be modified by synoptic weather type and aeroallergens. We investigated the effect modification of aeroallergens on the association between CO, O3, NO2, SO2, PM10, PM2.5 and asthma hospitalisation rates in seven synoptic weather types. We developed single air pollutant models, adjusted for the effect of aeroallergens and stratified by synoptic weather type, and pooled relative risk estimates for asthma hospitalisation in ten Canadian cities. Aeroallergens significantly modified the relative risk in 19 pollutant-weather type combinations, reducing the size and variance for each single pollutant model. However, aeroallergens did not significantly modify relative risk for any pollutant in the DT or MT weather types, or for PM10 in any weather type. Thus, there is a modifying effect of aeroallergens on the association between CO, O3, NO2, SO2, PM2.5 and asthma hospitalisations that differs under specific synoptic weather types. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Synoptic Study of Fecal-Indicator Bacteria in the Wind River, Bighorn River, and Goose Creek Basins, Wyoming, June-July 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, Melanie L.; Gamper, Merry E.

2003-01-01

A synoptic study of fecal-indicator bacteria was conducted during June and July 2000 in the Wind River, Bighorn River, and Goose Creek Basins in Wyoming as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program for the Yellowstone River Basin. Fecal-coliform concentrations ranged from 2 to 3,000 col/100 mL (colonies per 100 milliliters) for 100 samples, and Escherichia coli concentrations ranged from 1 to 2,800 col/100 mL for 97 samples. Fecal-coliform concentrations exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's recommended limit for a single sample for recreational contact with water in 37.0 percent of the samples. Escherichia coli concentrations exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's recommended limit for a single sample for moderate use, full-body recreational contact with water in 38.1 percent of the samples and the recommended limit for infrequent use, full-body recreational contact with water in 24.7 percent of the samples. Fecal-indicator-bacteria concentrations varied by basin. Samples from the Bighorn River Basin had the highest median concentrations for fecal coliform of 340 col/100 mL and for Escherichia coli of 300 col/100 mL. Samples from the Wind River Basin had the lowest median concentrations for fecal coliform of 50 col/100 mL and for Escherichia coli of 62 col/100 mL. Fecal-indicator-bacteria concentrations varied by land cover. Samples from sites with an urban land cover had the highest median concentrations for fecal coliform of 540 col/100 mL and for Escherichia coli of 420 col/100 mL. Maximum concentrations for fecal coliform of 3,000 col/100 mL and for Escherichia coli of 2,800 col/100 mL were in samples from sites with an agricultural land cover. The lowest median concentrations for fecal coliform of 130 col/100 mL and for Escherichia coli of 67 col/100 mL were for samples from sites with a forested land cover. A strong and positive relation existed between fecal coliform and Escherichia coli (Spearman's Rho value of 0.976). The majority of the fecal coliforms were Escherichia coli during the synoptic study. Fecal-indicator-bacteria concentrations were not correlated to streamflow, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, specific conduc-tance, and alkalinity. Fecal-indicator-bacteria concentrations were moderately correlated with turbidity (Spearman's Rho values of 0.662 and 0.640 for fecal coliform and Escherichia coli, respectively) and sediment (Spearman's Rho values of 0.628 and 0.636 for fecal coliform and Escherichia coli, respectively). Escherichia coli isolates analyzed by discriminant analysis of ribotype patterns for samples from the Bighorn River at Basin, Wyoming, and Bitter Creek near Garland, Wyoming, in the Bighorn River Basin were determined to be from nonhuman and human sources. Using a confidence interval of 90 percent, more of the isolates from both sites were classified as being from nonhuman than human sources; however, both samples had additional isolates that were classified as unknown sources. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Variations in synoptic-scale eddy activity during the life cycles of persistent flow anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dole, Randall M.; Neilley, Peter P.

1991-01-01

The objective of the study was to identify how synoptic-scale eddy activity varies throughout the life cycles of major scale flow anomalies. In particular, composite analyses of various measures of synoptic-scale eddy activity are constructed, with the composites obtained relative to the onset and termination times of cases typically associated with either blocking or abnormally intense zonal flows. The potential mechanisms that are likely to contribute to the observed changes in eddy behavior are discussed.

Seeking a paleontological signature for mass extinctions caused by flood basalt eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Payne, J.; Bush, A. M.; Chang, E. T.; Heim, N. A.; Knope, M. L.; Pruss, S. B.

2016-12-01

Flood basalt eruptions coincide with numerous extinction events in the fossil record. Increasingly precise absolute age determinations for both the timing of eruption and of species extinctions have strengthened the case for flood basalt eruptions as the single most important trigger for major mass extinction events in the fossil record. However, the extent to which flood basalt eruptions cause a pattern of biotic loss distinctive from extinctions triggered by other geological or biological processes remains an open question. In the absence of diagnostic mapping between geological triggers and biological losses, establishing the identities of causal agents for mass extinctions will continue to depend primarily on evidence for temporal coincidence. Here we use a synoptic database of marine animal genera spanning the Phanerozoic, including times of first and last occurrence, body size, motility, life position, feeding mode, and respiratory physiology to assess whether extinction events temporally associated with flood basalt eruptions exhibit a diagnostic pattern of extinction selectivity. We further ask whether any events not associated with known large igneous provinces nevertheless display extinction patterns suggestive of such a cause. Finally, we ask whether extinction events associated with other primary causes, such as glaciation or bolide impact, are distinguishable from events apparently triggered by flood basalt eruptions on the basis of extinction selectivity patterns

A Precipitation Climatology of the Snowy Mountains, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theobald, Alison; McGowan, Hamish; Speirs, Johanna

2014-05-01

The precipitation that falls in the Snowy Mountains region of southeastern Australia provides critical water resources for hydroelectric power generation. Water storages in this region are also a major source of agricultural irrigation, environmental flows, and offer a degree of flood protection for some of the major river systems in Australia. Despite this importance, there remains a knowledge gap regarding the long-term, historic variability of the synoptic weather systems that deliver precipitation to the region. This research aims to increase the understanding of long-term variations in precipitation-bearing weather systems resulting in runoff into the Snowy Mountains catchments and reservoirs, and the way in which these are influenced by large-scale climate drivers. Here we present initial results on the development of a climatology of precipitation-bearing synoptic weather systems (synoptic typology), spanning a period of over 100 years. The synoptic typology is developed from the numerical weather model re-analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), in conjunction with regional precipitation and temperature data from a network of private gauges. Given the importance of surface, mid- and upper-air patterns on seasonal precipitation, the synoptic typing will be based on a range of meteorological variables throughout the depth of the troposphere, highlighting the importance of different atmospheric levels on the development and steering of synoptic precipitation bearing systems. The temporal and spatial variability of these synoptic systems, their response to teleconnection forcings and their contribution to inflow generation in the headwater catchments of the Snowy Mountains will be investigated. The resulting climatology will provide new understanding of the drivers of regional-scale precipitation variability at inter- and intra-annual timescales. It will enable greater understanding of how variability in synoptic scale atmospheric circulation affects the hydroclimate of alpine environments in southeast Australia - allowing recently observed precipitation declines to be placed in the context of a long-term record spanning at least 100 years. This information will provide further insight into the impacts of predicted anthropogenic climate change and will ultimately lead to more informed water resource management in the Snowy Mountains.

Atmospheric rivers causing high accumulation storms in East Antarctica: regional climate model evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazzara, M. A.; Tsukernik, M.; Gorodetskaya, I.

2016-12-01

Recent studies confirmed that atmospheric rivers (ARs) reach the continent of Antarctica and thus influence the Antarctic accumulation patterns and the ice sheet mass balance (Gorodetskaya et al. 2014, GRL). Similar to mid-latitude ARs, Antarctic ARs are associated with a blocking pattern downstream of a cyclone, which allows channeling of moisture toward the continent. However, due to the extremely cold atmosphere, Antarctic ARs possess some unique features. First, the existence of an AR in high latitudes is always associated with warm advection. Second, in order for an AR to penetrate the continent, it needs to overcome strong low-level outflow winds - katabatic winds - coming from the interior of the continent. Thirdly, sea ice surrounding the Antarctic ice sheet introduces an additional "cold barrier" decreasing the tropospheric moisture holding capacity and promoting precipitation before reaching the ice sheet. We believe these factors contribute to the scarcity of AR events influencing the ice sheet surface mass balance. Nevertheless, their presence is clearly seen in the long-term record. In particular, anomalous accumulation in 2009 and 2011 in Dronning Maud Land in East Antarctica has been linked to atmospheric rivers. We performed a detailed investigation of several AR storm events from 2009 and 2011 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations. These simulations depicted the synoptic scale development of storms that led to an anomalous precipitation pattern in the East Antarctic. We investigated the role of the upper level vs. lower level forcing in the formation of the contributing storms. The moisture and temperature anomalies of each case are evaluated in the context of synoptic and large-scale atmospheric forcing. We also performed sensitivity studies to determine the role of sea ice in the development of these systems.

Influence of a forest canopy on velocity and temperature profiles under synoptic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattantyus, A.; Hocut, C. M.; Wang, Y.; Creegan, E.; Krishnamurthy, R.; Otarola-Bust, S.; Leo, L. S.; Fernando, H. J. S.

2017-12-01

Numerous field campaigns have found the importance of surface conditions on boundary layer evolution. Specifically, soil properties were found to control surface fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum that significantly modulated the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over flat and sparsely vegetated surfaces. There have been increasing numbers of studies related to canopy impacts on the boundary layer, such as CHATS, however few canopy studies over complex terrain have been performed with limited instrumentation. The recent Perdigão campaign greatly augmented the previous datasets available by instrumenting a unique, parallel ridge mountain in Perdigão, Portugal in unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution using traditional mast mounted sensors, instrumented aerial platforms, and remote sensing instrumentation. To aid the canopy studies, the Army Research Laboratory deployed sonic anemometers within the canopy transecting the ridges perpendicularly and placed five additional heavily instrumented meteorological masts on the northeast facing slope to investigate detailed slope flows. At each of these towers, there was an average of six levels of temperature, relative humidity, and wind sensors located above & below the canopy height which allowed a detailed study of the sub-canopy layer. In addition to the towers, two scanning Doppler LiDARs were oriented such that they performed synchronized dual Doppler virtual tower scans, extending from the canopy interface to several hundred meters above. Synoptically forced periods were analyzed to examine: the ABL structure of temperature, moisture, wind, and turbulent kinetic energy. Of particular interest are the shear layer at the canopy interface, recirculation events, as well as ejection and sweep events within the canopy and how these modify surface fluxes along the slopes.

Techniques that Link Extreme Events to the Large Scale, Applied to California Heat Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grotjahn, R.

2015-12-01

Understanding the mechanisms how Californian Central Valley (CCV) summer extreme hot spells develop is very important since the events have major impacts on the economy and human safety. Results from a series of CCV heat wave studies will be presented, emphasizing the techniques used. Key larger scale elements are identified statistically that are also consistent with synoptic and dynamic understanding of what must be present during extreme heat. Beyond providing a clear synoptic explanation, these key elements have high predictability, in part because soil moisture has little annual variation in the heavily-irrigated CCV. In turn, the predictability naturally leads to an effective tool to assess climate model simulation of these heat waves in historical and future climate scenarios. (Does the model develop extreme heat for the correct reasons?) Further work identified that these large scale elements arise in two quite different ways: one from expansion southwestward of a pre-existing heat wave in southwest Canada, the other formed in place from parcels traversing the North Pacific. The pre-existing heat wave explains an early result showing correlation between heat waves in Sacramento California, and other locations along the US west coast, including distant Seattle Washington. CCV heat waves can be preceded by unusually strong tropical Indian Ocean and Indonesian convection, this partial link may occur through an Asian subtropical jet wave guide. Another link revealed by diagnostics is a middle and higher latitude source of wave activity in Siberia and East Asia that also leads to the development of the CCV heat wave. This talk will address as many of these results and the tools used to obtain them as is reasonable within the available time.

Extreme flooding in the West African cities of Dakar and Ouagadougou - atmospheric dynamics and implications for flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engel, Thomas; Fink, Andreas; Knippertz, Peter

2017-04-01

In this study, two extreme, high-impact events of heavy rainfall and severe floods in West African urban areas (Ouagadougou in 2009, Dakar in 2012) are investigated in terms of their atmospheric causes and statistical return periods. In terms of the synoptic-convective dynamics, the Ouagadougou case is truly exceptional. A succession of two strong and temporarily slow-moving African Easterly Waves (AEWs) caused record-breaking values of tropospheric moisture and low-level relative vorticity, thereby providing the synoptic forcing for the nighttime genesis of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs). Ouagadougou was hit by two successive MCSs, the latter being possible due to the rotation and swift moisture refuelling by the strong convergence in the AEW-related vortex. It is speculated that this case may allow a glimpse of a new type of extreme Sahelian rainstorms. Similarly to the Ouagadougou case, an AEW was instrumental in the overnight development of an MCSs to the east of Dakar, but neither the AEW vortex nor the tropospheric moisture content was as exceptional as in the Ouagadougou case. The Return Value (RV) analysis suggests that TRMM 3B42 data appears to be suitable to estimate centennial RVs using the "peak-over-threshold" approach with a GPD fit, though the good performance might be a result of errors in estimating extreme rainfall over the arid Sahel. On the contrary PERSIANN-CDR is inappropriate for this purpose, despite having a twice as long observational period. The Ouagadougou event also shows that highly unusual dynamical developments can create extreme situations well outside of any RV estimates from century-long daily rainfall observations.

Colorado air quality impacted by long-range-transported aerosol: a set of case studies during the 2015 Pacific Northwest fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creamean, Jessie M.; Neiman, Paul J.; Coleman, Timothy; Senff, Christoph J.; Kirgis, Guillaume; Alvarez, Raul J.; Yamamoto, Atsushi

2016-09-01

Biomass burning plumes containing aerosols from forest fires can be transported long distances, which can ultimately impact climate and air quality in regions far from the source. Interestingly, these fires can inject aerosols other than smoke into the atmosphere, which very few studies have evidenced. Here, we demonstrate a set of case studies of long-range transport of mineral dust aerosols in addition to smoke from numerous fires (including predominantly forest fires and a few grass/shrub fires) in the Pacific Northwest to Colorado, US. These aerosols were detected in Boulder, Colorado, along the Front Range using beta-ray attenuation and energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy, and corroborated with satellite-borne lidar observations of smoke and dust. Further, we examined the transport pathways of these aerosols using air mass trajectory analysis and regional- and synoptic-scale meteorological dynamics. Three separate events with poor air quality and increased mass concentrations of metals from biomass burning (S and K) and minerals (Al, Si, Ca, Fe, and Ti) occurred due to the introduction of smoke and dust from regional- and synoptic-scale winds. Cleaner time periods with good air quality and lesser concentrations of biomass burning and mineral metals between the haze events were due to the advection of smoke and dust away from the region. Dust and smoke present in biomass burning haze can have diverse impacts on visibility, health, cloud formation, and surface radiation. Thus, it is important to understand how aerosol populations can be influenced by long-range-transported aerosols, particularly those emitted from large source contributors such as wildfires.

Using SysML for verification and validation planning on the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selvy, Brian M.; Claver, Charles; Angeli, George

2014-08-01

This paper provides an overview of the tool, language, and methodology used for Verification and Validation Planning on the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) Project. LSST has implemented a Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) approach as a means of defining all systems engineering planning and definition activities that have historically been captured in paper documents. Specifically, LSST has adopted the Systems Modeling Language (SysML) standard and is utilizing a software tool called Enterprise Architect, developed by Sparx Systems. Much of the historical use of SysML has focused on the early phases of the project life cycle. Our approach is to extend the advantages of MBSE into later stages of the construction project. This paper details the methodology employed to use the tool to document the verification planning phases, including the extension of the language to accommodate the project's needs. The process includes defining the Verification Plan for each requirement, which in turn consists of a Verification Requirement, Success Criteria, Verification Method(s), Verification Level, and Verification Owner. Each Verification Method for each Requirement is defined as a Verification Activity and mapped into Verification Events, which are collections of activities that can be executed concurrently in an efficient and complementary way. Verification Event dependency and sequences are modeled using Activity Diagrams. The methodology employed also ties in to the Project Management Control System (PMCS), which utilizes Primavera P6 software, mapping each Verification Activity as a step in a planned activity. This approach leads to full traceability from initial Requirement to scheduled, costed, and resource loaded PMCS task-based activities, ensuring all requirements will be verified.

Studying ocean acidification in the Arctic Ocean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, Lisa

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) partnership with the U.S. Coast Guard Ice Breaker Healey and its United Nations Convention Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) cruises has produced new synoptic data from samples collected in the Arctic Ocean and insights into the patterns and extent of ocean acidification. This framework of foundational geochemical information will help inform our understanding of potential risks to Arctic resources due to ocean acidification.

The Relationship Between Land Management, Fecal Indicator Bacteria, and the Occurrence of Campylobacter and Listeria Spp. in Water and Sediments During Synoptic Sampling In The South Fork Broad River Watershed, Northeast Georgia, U.S.A.

EPA Science Inventory

Fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) and pathogens stored in the bed sediments of streams and rivers may be mobilized into the water column affecting overall water quality. Furthermore, land management may play an important role in the concentrations of FIB and the occurrence of pathog...

Determination of instream metal loads using tracer-injection and synoptic-sampling techniques, Wightman Fork, southwestern Colorado, July 1999

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ortiz, Roderick F.

2001-01-01

In July 1999, a tracer-injection study was conducted concurrently with synoptic sampling to generate mass-load profiles in Wightman Fork near the Summitville Mine site. The mine site is located in the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado at an elevation of about 3,500 meters above sea level. Metal loads increased substantially along the 2,815-meter study reach along the boundary of the mine site. Spatial determinations of dissolved aluminum, copper, iron, manganese, and zinc loads were used to identify potential source areas to the stream. Overall, four source areas appeared to contribute most of the specific load at the end of the study reach. One source area was along a 60-meter reach downgradient from the toe of the North Waste Dump that generally corresponded to a region of radial faults. Another source area was a short reach that included inputs from the Summitville Water Treatment Facility and the Pump House Fault. In July 1999, seepage from the Summitville Dam Impoundment was a substantial contributor of metal load at the end of the study reach. Finally, the metal load contributed along a 60-meter reach that included Cropsy Creek is considered a substantial source of metal load to Wightman Fork.

Standardized synoptic cancer pathology reports - so what and who cares? A population-based satisfaction survey of 970 pathologists, surgeons, and oncologists.

PubMed

Lankshear, Sara; Srigley, John; McGowan, Thomas; Yurcan, Marta; Sawka, Carol

2013-11-01

Cancer Care Ontario implemented synoptic pathology reporting across Ontario, impacting the practice of pathologists, surgeons, and medical and radiation oncologists. The benefits of standardized synoptic pathology reporting include enhanced completeness and improved consistency in comparison with narrative reports, with reported challenges including increased workload and report turnaround time. To determine the impact of synoptic pathology reporting on physician satisfaction specific to practice and process. A descriptive, cross-sectional design was utilized involving 970 clinicians across 27 hospitals. An 11-item survey was developed to obtain information regarding timeliness, completeness, clarity, and usability. Open-ended questions were also employed to obtain qualitative comments. A 51% response rate was obtained, with descriptive statistics reporting that physicians perceive synoptic reports as significantly better than narrative reports. Correlation analysis revealed a moderately strong, positive relationship between respondents' perceptions of overall satisfaction with the level of information provided and perceptions of completeness for clinical decision making (r = 0.750, P < .001) and ease of finding information for clinical decision making (r = 0.663, P < .001). Dependent t tests showed a statistically significant difference in the satisfaction scores of pathologists and oncologists (t169 = 3.044, P = .003). Qualitative comments revealed technology-related issues as the most frequently cited factor impacting timeliness of report completion. This study provides evidence of strong physician satisfaction with synoptic cancer pathology reporting as a clinical decision support tool in the diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of cancer patients.

Trail Creek I: Assessing the Water Quality of Streams using Fecal Indicator Bacteria and Microbial Source Tracking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saintil, T.; Radcliffe, D. E.; Rasmussen, T. C.; Kannan, A.

2017-12-01

Fecal coliforms are indicators for disease-causing pathogens. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (US. EPA) recommends the use of E. coli and Enterococci because they are highly correlated with pathogenic organisms in recreational waters. This standard method helps to determine the overall water quality and the potential health risks. Studies have shown that it is difficult to estimate the exact sources of fecal contamination because both human and certain animal species contain E. coli and Enterococci in their waste. Certain strains of E. coli and Enterococci are also able to survive outside of their hosts, which should not be the case for an appropriate fecal indicator. As a result, microbial source tracking (MST) studies use gene specific markers to identify the possible contributors to water pollution whether human or animal. Trail Creek is a second-order stream located in Athens-Clarke County, GA. The 33-km2 watershed is approximately 64% forests, 18% pastures and 16% residential communities. Trail Creek is on the TMDL list and an extended study on the relationships between the different factors causing elevated fecal bacteria is needed. Synoptic sampling events were conducted during baseflow conditions at six locations. Storm sampling events (> 8 mm) were captured using automated samplers at two locations. These samplers were equipped with pressure transducers which record stage at 30-minute intervals. The samples were analyzed for fecal coliform, E. Coli and Enterococci. Water quality parameters including temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, pH, and turbidity were also recorded. Relationships between the parameters and fecal indicator bacteria show inconsistent patterns and high variability. Using quantitative PCR and MST techniques, the human specific marker (HF183) and ruminant marker (Rum2Bac) were used to identify the fecal sources in both baseflow and storm samples. The presence and abundance of the different markers at each site will be presented. The findings will be useful for adopting best management practices and implementing green infrastructure for the reduction of fecal pollution.

Synoptic-scale fire weather conditions in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayasaka, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Hiroshi L.; Bieniek, Peter A.

2016-09-01

Recent concurrent widespread fires in Alaska are evaluated to assess their associated synoptic-scale weather conditions. Several periods of high fire activity from 2003 to 2015 were identified using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) hotspot data by considering the number of daily hotspots and their continuity. Fire weather conditions during the top six periods of high fire activity in the fire years of 2004, 2005, 2009, and 2015 were analyzed using upper level (500 hPa) and near surface level (1000 hPa) atmospheric reanalysis data. The top four fire-periods occurred under similar unique high-pressure fire weather conditions related to Rossby wave breaking (RWB). Following the ignition of wildfires, fire weather conditions related to RWB events typically result in two hotspot peaks occurring before and after high-pressure systems move from south to north across Alaska. A ridge in the Gulf of Alaska resulted in southwesterly wind during the first hotspot peak. After the high-pressure system moved north under RWB conditions, the Beaufort Sea High developed and resulted in relatively strong easterly wind in Interior Alaska and a second (largest) hotspot peak during each fire period. Low-pressure-related fire weather conditions occurring under cyclogenesis in the Arctic also resulted in high fire activity under southwesterly wind with a single large hot-spot peak.

Synoptic and climatological aspects of extra-tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G. C.

2010-09-01

Mid-latitude cyclones are highly complex dynamical features embedded in the general atmospheric circulation of the extra-tropics. Although the basic mechanisms leading to the formation of cyclones are commonly understood, the specific conditions and physical reasons triggering extreme, partly explosive development, are still under investigation. This includes also the identification of processes which might modulate the frequency and intensity of cyclone systems on time scales from days to centennials. This overview presentation will thus focus on three main topics: Firstly, the dynamic-synoptic structures of cyclones, the possibility to objectively identify cyclones and wind storms, and actual statistical properties of cyclone occurrence under recent climate conditions are addressed. In a second part, aspects of the interannual variability and its causing mechanisms are related to the seasonal predictability of extreme cyclones producing severe storm events. Extending the time frame will mean to deduce information on decadal or even centennial time periods. Thus, actual work to decadal as well as climatological variability and changes will be presented. In the last part of the talk focus will be laid on potential socio-economical impacts of changed cyclone occurrence. By means of global and regional climate modeling, future damages in terms of insured losses will be investigated and measures of uncertainty estimated from a multi-model ensemble analysis will be presented.

Meteorological controls on isotope ratios in rainwater from an inland and a costal station (Bangalore and Thiruvananthapuram) in Southern India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peethambaran, Rahul; Ghosh, Prosenjit

2017-04-01

The isotope ratios in rainwater are controlled by factors such as source water composition and intensity of convective activity (Rahul et al., 2016). In this study, we investigate the atmospheric controls on rainwater δ18O values collected from two Indian stations, Thiruvananthapuram (TRV, n=222 with average of -2.58±3.06‰) and Bangalore (BLR, n=198 with average of -1.94±3.94‰) covering the southwest monsoon (SWM) and northeast monsoon (NEM), for the time period of four years. The samples are collected at daily intervals and in some particular cases at intra-event time scales (4 events). It was observed that the seasonal variations are more pronounced over BLR due to its location in the central peninsular India, compared to TRV which is a coastal station. The intra-event based observations indicate amount effect is significant due to post-condensation evaporation during raindrop descent. This is supported by the observed low d-excess values of rainwater and its inverse correlation (r=0.5 to 0.8) with rainfall amount within events. The correlation between rainwater δ18O with the local rainfall amount was low (r=0.2 and 0.3) in both the stations whereas the isotope ratios respond to the monsoonal convective systems on a regional scale. Significant negative correlations of isotope ratios with the moisture convergence were obtained in spatio-temporal scales over parts of the Arabian Sea as well as over the regions of moisture pathways associated with synoptic scale disturbances over the BoB. We observe that the correlation pattern responds to seasonal changes at the moisture source regions during the period of SWM and NEM. References Rahul, P., P. Ghosh, S. K. Bhattacharya, and K. Yoshimura (2016), Controlling factors of rainwater and water vapor isotopes at Bangalore, India: constraints from observations in 2013 Indian monsoon, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121, doi:10.1002/2016JD025352.

Lightning and precipitation relationship in summer thunderstorms: Case studies in the North Western Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pineda, Nicolau; Rigo, Tomeu; Bech, Joan; Soler, Xavier

2007-08-01

This study analyzes the relationship between lightning and precipitation in nine convective events. They occurred during the summer season of 2004 in Catalonia (NE Spain) and its coastal area, in the North Western Mediterranean Sea. The data examined were issued from C-band volumetric radar observations, from radiosoundings, and total lightning detection records, including both cloud-to-ground (CG) and intra-cloud flashes. The overall Rainfall-Lightning Ratio (RLR) found was 38.9 10 3 m 3/CG flash, which is a value closer to those found in the Southeastern United States than in the Atlantic coast of France. Moreover, the range of variation found in the studied episodes goes from 10.8 to 87.2 10 3 m 3/CG flash. These variations are analyzed in terms of the synoptic conditions of the events and regarding their spatial distribution, comparing land and sea domains.

Widespread tsunami-like waves of 23-27 June in the Mediterranean and Black Seas generated by high-altitude atmospheric forcing.

PubMed

Šepić, Jadranka; Vilibić, Ivica; Rabinovich, Alexander B; Monserrat, Sebastian

2015-06-29

A series of tsunami-like waves of non-seismic origin struck several southern European countries during the period of 23 to 27 June 2014. The event caused considerable damage from Spain to Ukraine. Here, we show that these waves were long-period ocean oscillations known as meteorological tsunamis which are generated by intense small-scale air pressure disturbances. An unique atmospheric synoptic pattern was tracked propagating eastward over the Mediterranean and the Black seas in synchrony with onset times of observed tsunami waves. This pattern favoured generation and propagation of atmospheric gravity waves that induced pronounced tsunami-like waves through the Proudman resonance mechanism. This is the first documented case of a chain of destructive meteorological tsunamis occurring over a distance of thousands of kilometres. Our findings further demonstrate that these events represent potentially dangerous regional phenomena and should be included in tsunami warning systems.

Widespread tsunami-like waves of 23-27 June in the Mediterranean and Black Seas generated by high-altitude atmospheric forcing

PubMed Central

Šepić, Jadranka; Vilibić, Ivica; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Monserrat, Sebastian

2015-01-01

A series of tsunami-like waves of non-seismic origin struck several southern European countries during the period of 23 to 27 June 2014. The event caused considerable damage from Spain to Ukraine. Here, we show that these waves were long-period ocean oscillations known as meteorological tsunamis which are generated by intense small-scale air pressure disturbances. An unique atmospheric synoptic pattern was tracked propagating eastward over the Mediterranean and the Black seas in synchrony with onset times of observed tsunami waves. This pattern favoured generation and propagation of atmospheric gravity waves that induced pronounced tsunami-like waves through the Proudman resonance mechanism. This is the first documented case of a chain of destructive meteorological tsunamis occurring over a distance of thousands of kilometres. Our findings further demonstrate that these events represent potentially dangerous regional phenomena and should be included in tsunami warning systems. PMID:26119833

Parameterization of synoptic weather systems in the South Atlantic Bight for modeling applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Xiaodong; Voulgaris, George; Kumar, Nirnimesh

2017-10-01

An event based, long-term, climatological analysis is presented that allows the creation of coastal ocean atmospheric forcing on the coastal ocean that preserves both frequency of occurrence and event time history. An algorithm is developed that identifies individual storm event (cold fronts, warm fronts, and tropical storms) from meteorological records. The algorithm has been applied to a location along the South Atlantic Bight, off South Carolina, an area prone to cyclogenesis occurrence and passages of atmospheric fronts. Comparison against daily weather maps confirms that the algorithm is efficient in identifying cold fronts and warm fronts, while the identification of tropical storms is less successful. The average state of the storm events and their variability are represented by the temporal evolution of atmospheric pressure, air temperature, wind velocity, and wave directional spectral energy. The use of uncorrected algorithm-detected events provides climatologies that show a little deviation from those derived using corrected events. The effectiveness of this analysis method is further verified by numerically simulating the wave conditions driven by the characteristic wind forcing and comparing the results with the wave climatology that corresponds to each storm type. A high level of consistency found in the comparison indicates that this analysis method can be used for accurately characterizing event-based oceanic processes and long-term storm-induced morphodynamic processes on wind-dominated coasts.

The relationship between extreme weather events and crop losses in central Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Li-Wei

2017-09-01

The frequency of extreme weather events, which cause severe crop losses, is increasing. This study investigates the relationship between crop losses and extreme weather events in central Taiwan from 2003 to 2015 and determines the main factors influencing crop losses. Data regarding the crop loss area and meteorological information were obtained from government agencies. The crops were categorised into the following five groups: `grains', `vegetables', `fruits', `flowers' and `other crops'. The extreme weather events and their synoptic weather patterns were categorised into six and five groups, respectively. The data were analysed using the z score, correlation coefficient and stepwise regression model. The results show that typhoons had the highest frequency of all extreme weather events (58.3%). The largest crop loss area (4.09%) was caused by two typhoons and foehn wind in succession. Extreme wind speed coupled with heavy rainfall is an important factor affecting the losses in the grain and vegetable groups. Extreme wind speed is a common variable that affects the loss of `grains', `vegetables', `fruits' and `flowers'. Consecutive extreme weather events caused greater crop losses than individual events. Crops with long production times suffered greater losses than those with short production times. This suggests that crops with physical structures that can be easily damaged and long production times would benefit from protected cultivation to maintain food security.

SOHO EIT Carrington maps from synoptic full-disk data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, B. J.; Newmark, J. S.; Gurman, J. B.; Delaboudiniere, J. P.; Clette, F.; Gibson, S. E.

1997-01-01

The solar synoptic maps, obtained from observations carried out since May 1996 by the extreme-ultraviolet imaging telescope (EIT) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), are presented. The maps were constructed for each Carrington rotation with the calibrated data. The off-limb maps at 1.05 and 1.10 solar radii were generated for three coronal lines using the standard applied to coronagraph synoptic maps. The maps reveal several aspects of the solar structure over the entire rotation and are used in the whole sun month modeling campaign. @txt extreme-ultraviolet imaging telescope

Development of specifications for surface and subsurface oceanic environmental data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolff, P. M.

1976-01-01

The existing need for synoptic subsurface observations was demonstrated giving special attention to the requirements of meteorology. The current state of synoptic oceanographic observations was assessed; a preliminary design for the Basic Observational Network needed to fulfill the minimum needs of synoptic meteorology and oceanography was presented. There is an existing critical need for such a network in the support of atmospheric modeling and operational meteorological prediction, and through utilization of the regional water mass concept an adequate observational system can be designed which is realistic in terms of cost and effort.

Computer mapping of turbidity and circulation patterns in Saginaw Bay, Michigan from LANDSAT data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rogers, R. H. (Principal Investigator); Reed, L. E.; Smith, V. E.

1975-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. LANDSAT was used as a basis for producing geometrically-corrected, color-coded imagery of turbidity and circulation patterns in Saginaw Bay, Michigan (Lake Huron). This imagery shows nine discrete categories of turbidity, as indicated by nine Secchi depths between 0.3 and 3.3 meters. The categorized imagery provided an economical basis for extrapolating water quality parameters from point samples to unsample areas. LANDSAT furnished a synoptic view of water mass boundaries that no amount of ground sampling or monitoring could provide.

Sediment sources in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California-Nevada; preliminary results of a four-year study, August 1983-September 1987

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, B.R.; Hill, J.R.; Nolan, K.M.

1988-01-01

Data were collected during a 4-yr study of sediment sources in four drainage basins tributary to Lake Tahoe, California-Nevada. The study areas include the Blackwood, General, Edgewood, and Logan House Creek basins. Data include changes in bank and bed positions at channel cross sections; results of stream-channel mapping; analyses of bank and bed material samples; tabulations of bed material point counts; measured rates of hillslope erosion; dimensions of gullies; suspended-sediment data collected during synoptic snowmelt sampling; and physiographic data for the four study basins. (USGS)

Sediment-source data for four basins tributary to Lake Tahoe, California and Nevada; August 1983-June 1988

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, B.R.; Hill, J.R.; Nolan, K.M.

1990-01-01

Data were collected during a 5-year study of sediment sources in four drainage basins tributary to Lake Tahoe, California-Nevada. The study areas include the Blackwood Creek, General Creek, Edgewood Creek, and Logan House Creek basins. Data include changes in bank and bed positions at channel cross sections; results of stream-channel inventories; analyses of bank and bed material samples; tabulations of bed-material pebble counts; measured rates of hillslope erosion; dimensions of gullies; suspended-sediment data collected during synoptic snowmelt sampling; and physiographic data for the four study basins. (USGS)

Effects of Packstock Use and Backpackers on Water Quality in Yosemite National Park, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forrester, H.; Clow, D. W.; Roche, J. W.; Heyvaert, A.

2016-12-01

Visitor use, primarily backpacker camping, packstock (horse and mule) trail use, and packstock grazing, in designated Wilderness, increases the potential for negative effects on water quality. To determine the effects of visitor use on water quality in Wilderness in Yosemite National Park, we collected and analyzed surface-water samples for water quality indicators, consisting of fecal indicator bacteria (Escherichia coli), nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus), suspended sediment concentration (SSC), and hormones (e.g. estrogen compounds) during the summers of 2012-2014. We collected samples upstream and downstream from different types of visitor use at routine intervals (weekly or biweekly) and during storms. Additionally, we sampled upstream and downstream from meadows, and targeted different types of visitor use during a park-wide synoptic sampling campaign (n=63). At packstock stream crossings, statistically significant (P≤0.05) increases in Escherichia coli (E. coli) and SSC occurred downstream from crossings compared to upstream conditions during routine sampling (median difference: 3 CFU 100ml-1, and >0.3 mg l-1, respectively) and during storms (median difference: 32 CFU 100ml-1, and 2.9 mg l-1). At backpacker campsites, during routine sampling, significant increases occurred downstream from backpacker camping for E. coli (median difference: 1 CFU 100ml-1), and estrogen hormones were detected. At packstock grazing areas, which are located in meadows, no significant increases were detected for any of the measured water quality indicators downstream from grazing. Most synoptic sample concentrations were near or below detection limits. Our results indicate that under current use levels: 1) packstock trail use and backpacker camping are associated with detectable effects on water quality, which are most pronounced during storms; 2) increases in water quality indicators were not detected downstream from meadows where packstock were grazed; and 3) environmental processes in meadows provide a valuable ecosystem service by reducing human related sources of microbial contamination.

Multi-viewpoint Coronal Mass Ejection Catalog Based on STEREO COR2 Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vourlidas, Angelos; Balmaceda, Laura A.; Stenborg, Guillermo; Dal Lago, Alisson

2017-04-01

We present the first multi-viewpoint coronal mass ejection (CME) catalog. The events are identified visually in simultaneous total brightness observations from the twin SECCHI/COR2 coronagraphs on board the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory mission. The Multi-View CME Catalog differs from past catalogs in three key aspects: (1) all events between the two viewpoints are cross-linked, (2) each event is assigned a physics-motivated morphological classification (e.g., jet, wave, and flux rope), and (3) kinematic and geometric information is extracted semi-automatically via a supervised image segmentation algorithm. The database extends from the beginning of the COR2 synoptic program (2007 March) to the end of dual-viewpoint observations (2014 September). It contains 4473 unique events with 3358 events identified in both COR2s. Kinematic properties exist currently for 1747 events (26% of COR2-A events and 17% of COR2-B events). We examine several issues, made possible by this cross-linked CME database, including the role of projection on the perceived morphology of events, the missing CME rate, the existence of cool material in CMEs, the solar cycle dependence on CME rate, speeds and width, and the existence of flux rope within CMEs. We discuss the implications for past single-viewpoint studies and for Space Weather research. The database is publicly available on the web including all available measurements. We hope that it will become a useful resource for the community.

Simulated life cycles of persistent anticyclonic anomalies over the North Pacific: Role of synoptic-scale eddies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Higgins, R. W.; Schubert, S. D.

1994-01-01

This study examines the role of synoptic-scale eddies during the development of persistent anticyclonic height anomalies over the central North Pacific in a general circulation model under perpetual January conditions. The General Circulation Model (GCM) replicates the basic characteristics of the evolution of the anomaly patterns found in observations. The life cycle is characterized by the rapid establishment of the major anomaly center and considerably longer maintenance and decay phases, which include the development of downstream anomaly centers. The simulation also shows a realistic evolution of synoptic-scale activity beginning with enhanced activity off the east coast of Asia prior to onset, followed by a northward shift of the Pacific storm track, which lasts throughout the maintenance phase. The initial enhancement of synoptic-scale eddy activity is associated with a large-scale cyclonic anomaly that developes over Siberia several days prior to the onset of the main anticyclonic anomaly over the central North Pacific. The observations, however, show considerable interdecadel variability in the details of the composite onset behavior; it is unclear whether this variability is real or whether it reflects differences in the data assimilation systems. The role of the time mean flow and synoptic-scale eddies in the development of the persistent Pacific anomalies is studied within the context of a kinetic energy budget in which the flow is decomposed into the time-mean, low-frequency (timescales longer than 10 days), and synoptic (timescales less than 6 days) components. The budget, which is carried out for the simulation at 500 mb, shows that the initial growth of the persistent anticyclonic anomalies is associated with barotropic conversions of energy, with approximately equal contributions coming from the mean flow and the synoptic-scale eddies. After onset the barotropic conversion from the mean flow dominates, whereas the decay phase is associated with baroclinic processes within the low-frequency flow.

Functional Assessment of Synoptic Pathology Reporting for Ovarian Cancer.

PubMed

Słodkowska, Janina; Cierniak, Szczepan; Patera, Janusz; Kopik, Jarosław; Baranowski, Włodzimierz; Markiewicz, Tomasz; Murawski, Piotr; Buda, Irmina; Kozłowski, Wojciech

2016-01-01

Ovarian cancer has one of the highest death/incidence rates and is commonly diagnosed at an advanced stage. In the recent WHO classification, new histotypes were classified which respond differently to chemotherapy. The e-standardized synoptic cancer pathology reports offer the clinicians essential and reliable information. The aim of our project was to develop an e-template for the standardized synoptic pathology reporting of ovarian carcinoma [based on the checklist of the College of American Pathologists (CAP) and the recent WHO/FIGO classification] to introduce a uniform and improved quality of cancer pathology reports. A functional and qualitative evaluation of the synoptic reporting was performed. An indispensable module for e-synoptic reporting was developed and integrated into the Hospital Information System (HIS). The electronic pathology system used a standardized structure with drop-down lists of defined elements to ensure completeness and consistency of reporting practices with the required guidelines. All ovarian cancer pathology reports (partial and final) with the corresponding glass slides selected from a 1-year current workflow were revised for the standard structured reports, and 42 tumors [13 borderline tumors and 29 carcinomas (mainly serous)] were included in the study. Analysis of the reports for completeness against the CAP checklist standard showed a lack of pTNM staging in 80% of the partial or final unstructured reports; ICD-O coding was missing in 83%. Much less frequently missed or unstated data were: ovarian capsule infiltration, angioinvasion and implant evaluation. The e-records of ovarian tumors were supplemented with digital macro- and micro-images and whole-slide images. The e-module developed for synoptic ovarian cancer pathology reporting was easily incorporated into HIS.CGM CliniNet and facilitated comprehensive reporting; it also provided open access to the database for concerned recipients. The e-synoptic pathology reports appeared more accurate, clear and conclusive than traditional narrative reports. Standardizing structured reporting and electronic tools allows open access and downstream utilization of pathology data for clinicians and tumor registries. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Numerical simulations of significant orographic precipitation in Madeira island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couto, Flavio Tiago; Ducrocq, Véronique; Salgado, Rui; Costa, Maria João

2016-03-01

High-resolution simulations of high precipitation events with the MESO-NH model are presented, and also used to verify that increasing horizontal resolution in zones of complex orography, such as in Madeira island, improve the simulation of the spatial distribution and total precipitation. The simulations succeeded in reproducing the general structure of the cloudy systems over the ocean in the four periods considered of significant accumulated precipitation. The accumulated precipitation over the Madeira was better represented with the 0.5 km horizontal resolution and occurred under four distinct synoptic situations. Different spatial patterns of the rainfall distribution over the Madeira have been identified.

Precipitation factors leading to arc cloud formation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brundidge, Kenneth C.

1987-01-01

The combined efforts of three graduate students and the principal investigator are presented. Satellite observations and interpretation have become increasingly important in the areas of weather research and operational forecasting. One reason is that geostationary satellite imagery is the only meteorological observing tool that can follow the evolution of clouds from the synoptic scale down to the cumulas scale. Therefore, it can depict atmospheric activity which is up to two orders of magnitude smaller than can be resolved by conventional meteorological observations. This unique ability of the satellite provides the meteorologist a mechanism to infer weather events down to the mesoscale. This evolution is the subject of this report.

The Application of Hilbert-Huang Transforms to Meteorological Datasets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, Dean G.

2003-01-01

Recently a new spectral technique as been developed for the analysis of aperiodic and nonlinear signals - the Hilbert-Huang transform. This paper shows how these transforms can be used to discover synoptic and climatic features: For sea level data, the transforms capture the oceanic tides as well as large, aperiodic river outflows. In the case of solar radiation, we observe variations in the diurnal and seasonal cycles. Finally, from barographic data, the Hilbert-Huang transform reveals the passage of extratropical cyclones, fronts, and troughs. Thus, this technique can flag significant weather events such its a flood or the passage of a squall line.

Projected Near-Earth Object Discovery Performance of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chesley, Steven R.; Veres, Peter

2017-01-01

This report describes the methodology and results of an assessment study of the performance of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) in its planned efforts to detect and catalog near-Earth objects (NEOs).

Synoptic Control of Contrail Cirrus Life Cycles and Their Modification Due to Reduced Soot Number Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bier, A.; Burkhardt, U.; Bock, L.

2017-11-01

The atmospheric state, aircraft emissions, and engine properties determine formation and initial properties of contrails. The synoptic situation controls microphysical and dynamical processes and causes a wide variability of contrail cirrus life cycles. A reduction of soot particle number emissions, resulting, for example, from the use of alternative fuels, strongly impacts initial ice crystal numbers and microphysical process rates of contrail cirrus. We use the European Centre/Hamburg (ECHAM) climate model version 5 including a contrail cirrus modul, studying process rates, properties, and life cycles of contrail cirrus clusters within different synoptic situations. The impact of reduced soot number emissions is approximated by a reduction in the initial ice crystal number, exemplarily studied for 80%. Contrail cirrus microphysical and macrophysical properties can depend much more strongly on the synoptic situation than on the initial ice crystal number. They can attain a large cover, optical depth, and ice water content in long-lived and large-scale ice-supersaturated areas, making them particularly climate-relevant. In those synoptic situations, the accumulated ice crystal loss due to sedimentation is increased by around 15% and the volume of contrail cirrus, exceeding an optical depth of 0.02, and their short-wave radiative impact are strongly decreased due to reduced soot emissions. These reductions are of little consequence in short-lived and small-scale ice-supersaturated areas, where contrail cirrus stay optically very thin and attain a low cover. The synoptic situations in which long-lived and climate-relevant contrail cirrus clusters can be found over the eastern U.S. occur in around 25% of cases.

High Altitude Bird Migration at Temperate Latitudes: A Synoptic Perspective on Wind Assistance

PubMed Central

Dokter, Adriaan M.; Shamoun-Baranes, Judy; Kemp, Michael U.; Tijm, Sander; Holleman, Iwan

2013-01-01

At temperate latitudes the synoptic patterns of bird migration are strongly structured by the presence of cyclones and anticyclones, both in the horizontal and altitudinal dimensions. In certain synoptic conditions, birds may efficiently cross regions with opposing surface wind by choosing a higher flight altitude with more favourable wind. We observed migratory passerines at mid-latitudes that selected high altitude wind optima on particular nights, leading to the formation of structured migration layers at varying altitude up to 3 km. Using long-term vertical profiling of bird migration by C-band Doppler radar in the Netherlands, we find that such migration layers occur nearly exclusively during spring migration in the presence of a high-pressure system. A conceptual analytic framework providing insight into the synoptic patterns of wind assistance for migrants that includes the altitudinal dimension has so far been lacking. We present a simple model for a baroclinic atmosphere that relates vertical profiles of wind assistance to the pressure and temperature patterns occurring at temperate latitudes. We show how the magnitude and direction of the large scale horizontal temperature gradient affects the relative gain in wind assistance that migrants obtain through ascending. Temperature gradients typical for northerly high-pressure systems in spring are shown to cause high altitude wind optima in the easterly sectors of anticyclones, thereby explaining the frequent observations of high altitude migration in these synoptic conditions. Given the recurring synoptic arrangements of pressure systems across temperate continents, the opportunities for exploiting high altitude wind will differ between flyways, for example between easterly and westerly oceanic coasts. PMID:23300969

High altitude bird migration at temperate latitudes: a synoptic perspective on wind assistance.

PubMed

Dokter, Adriaan M; Shamoun-Baranes, Judy; Kemp, Michael U; Tijm, Sander; Holleman, Iwan

2013-01-01

At temperate latitudes the synoptic patterns of bird migration are strongly structured by the presence of cyclones and anticyclones, both in the horizontal and altitudinal dimensions. In certain synoptic conditions, birds may efficiently cross regions with opposing surface wind by choosing a higher flight altitude with more favourable wind. We observed migratory passerines at mid-latitudes that selected high altitude wind optima on particular nights, leading to the formation of structured migration layers at varying altitude up to 3 km. Using long-term vertical profiling of bird migration by C-band Doppler radar in the Netherlands, we find that such migration layers occur nearly exclusively during spring migration in the presence of a high-pressure system. A conceptual analytic framework providing insight into the synoptic patterns of wind assistance for migrants that includes the altitudinal dimension has so far been lacking. We present a simple model for a baroclinic atmosphere that relates vertical profiles of wind assistance to the pressure and temperature patterns occurring at temperate latitudes. We show how the magnitude and direction of the large scale horizontal temperature gradient affects the relative gain in wind assistance that migrants obtain through ascending. Temperature gradients typical for northerly high-pressure systems in spring are shown to cause high altitude wind optima in the easterly sectors of anticyclones, thereby explaining the frequent observations of high altitude migration in these synoptic conditions. Given the recurring synoptic arrangements of pressure systems across temperate continents, the opportunities for exploiting high altitude wind will differ between flyways, for example between easterly and westerly oceanic coasts.

Summarising climate and air quality (ozone) data on self-organising maps: a Sydney case study.

PubMed

Jiang, Ningbo; Betts, Alan; Riley, Matt

2016-02-01

This paper explores the classification and visualisation utility of the self-organising map (SOM) method in the context of New South Wales (NSW), Australia, using gridded NCEP/NCAR geopotential height reanalysis for east Australia, together with multi-site meteorological and air quality data for Sydney from the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage Air Quality Monitoring Network. A twice-daily synoptic classification has been derived for east Australia for the period of 1958-2012. The classification has not only reproduced the typical synoptic patterns previously identified in the literature but also provided an opportunity to visualise the subtle, non-linear change in the eastward-migrating synoptic systems influencing NSW (including Sydney). The summarisation of long-term, multi-site air quality/meteorological data from the Sydney basin on the SOM plane has identified a set of typical air pollution/meteorological spatial patterns in the region. Importantly, the examination of these patterns in relation to synoptic weather types has provided important visual insights into how local and synoptic meteorological conditions interact with each other and affect the variability of air quality in tandem. The study illustrates that while synoptic circulation types are influential, the within-type variability in mesoscale flows plays a critical role in determining local ozone levels in Sydney. These results indicate that the SOM can be a useful tool for assessing the impact of weather and climatic conditions on air quality in the regional airshed. This study further promotes the use of the SOM method in environmental research.

Summertime ozone at Mount Washington: Meteorological controls at the highest peak in the northeast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Emily V.; Talbot, Robert W.; Dibb, Jack E.; Moody, Jennie L.; Murray, Georgia L.

2004-12-01

This study examined the synoptic and regional-scale meteorological controls on summertime O3 at Mount Washington, the highest peak (1910 m) in the northeastern United States. Analysis of air mass transport to Mount Washington was conducted for the summers of 1998-2003 using backward trajectories. Distinct patterns in air mass history were revealed using this approach that helped explain extreme variations in O3 mixing ratios. Most enhanced (≥90th percentile) and depleted (≤10th percentile) O3 events were short-lived and spread out over the summer months. Enhanced O3 events at Mount Washington were generally associated with westerly transport, while depleted events corresponded to northwesterly transport. Periods of O3 greater than 80 ppbv during nighttime periods coincided with westerly (71%) and southwesterly (29%) transport. Periods of elevated O3 commonly occurred during regional warm sector flow or on the western edge of a surface anticyclone. Our analysis also identified a stratospheric contribution to a small percentage (˜5%) of extreme O3 events at the site, but more evidence is required to establish the significance of the contribution to background O3 levels in this region.

On the association between synoptic circulation and wildfires in the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadopoulos, A.; Paschalidou, A. K.; Kassomenos, P. A.; McGregor, G.

2014-02-01

In the present paper cluster analysis of 2-month air mass back-trajectories for three contrasting fire and non-fire events is conducted (high, low, and zero burnt area). The large fire event displays an air mass history dissimilar to other events whereby a 39-day period of warm and dry chiefly northerly anticyclonic conditions is evident, before a week of warmer predominantly southwesterly cyclonic activity, immediately prior to ignition. The pressure level of these anticyclonic air masses is above 800 hPa for more than 75 % of the trajectory length; this region is above the principal moisture transport regime of 800 hPa altitude. Analysis of variance on the mean rate of change of potential temperature identified weak statistically significant differences between two air mass pairs regarding the large fire: anticyclonic and cyclonic air masses in both cases ( p = 0.038 and p = 0.020). Such regularity of type and occurrence, approach pressure levels and statistically significant differences are not evident for the small and non-fire event air masses. Such understanding is expected to permit appropriate steps to be undertaken including superior prediction and improved suppression strategy.

Exploring the interpersonal-, organization-, and system-level factors that influence the implementation and use of an innovation-synoptic reporting-in cancer care.

PubMed

Urquhart, Robin; Porter, Geoffrey A; Grunfeld, Eva; Sargeant, Joan

2012-03-01

The dominant method of reporting findings from diagnostic and surgical procedures is the narrative report. In cancer care, this report inconsistently provides the information required to understand the cancer and make informed patient care decisions. Another method of reporting, the synoptic report, captures specific data items in a structured manner and contains only items critical for patient care. Research demonstrates that synoptic reports vastly improve the quality of reporting. However, synoptic reporting represents a complex innovation in cancer care, with implementation and use requiring fundamental shifts in physician behaviour and practice, and support from the organization and larger system. The objective of this study is to examine the key interpersonal, organizational, and system-level factors that influence the implementation and use of synoptic reporting in cancer care. This study involves three initiatives in Nova Scotia, Canada, that have implemented synoptic reporting within their departments/programs. Case study methodology will be used to study these initiatives (the cases) in-depth, explore which factors were barriers or facilitators of implementation and use, examine relationships amongst factors, and uncover which factors appear to be similar and distinct across cases. The cases were selected as they converge and differ with respect to factors that are likely to influence the implementation and use of an innovation in practice. Data will be collected through in-depth interviews, document analysis, observation of training sessions, and examination/use of the synoptic reporting tools. An audit will be performed to determine/quantify use. Analysis will involve production of a case record/history for each case, in-depth analysis of each case, and cross-case analysis, where findings will be compared and contrasted across cases to develop theoretically informed, generalisable knowledge that can be applied to other settings/contexts. Ethical approval was granted for this study. This study will contribute to our knowledge base on the multi-level factors, and the relationships amongst factors in specific contexts, that influence implementation and use of innovations such as synoptic reporting in healthcare. Such knowledge is critical to improving our understanding of implementation processes in clinical settings, and to helping researchers, clinicians, and managers/administrators develop and implement ways to more effectively integrate innovations into routine clinical care.

Forcing, properties, structure, and antecedent synoptic climatology of the Snake River Plain Convergence Zone of eastern Idaho: Analyses of observations and numerical simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andretta, Thomas A.

The Snake River Plain Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is a convergent shear zone generated by synoptic-scale post cold-frontal winds in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) interacting with the complex topography of eastern Idaho. The SPCZ produces clouds and occasional precipitation over time scales of 6--12 hours in a significant area of mesoscale dimensions (10--50 x 10 3 km2). This meso-beta-scale feature also contributes to the precipitation climatology in a semi-arid plain. The SPCZ is climatologically linked to the passage of synoptic-scale cold fronts and typically occurs in the fall and winter months with the highest frequencies in October, November, and January. The Snake River Plain of eastern Idaho is covered by a dense surface mesonetwork of towers with sensible weather measurements, single Doppler weather radar, regional soundings, and operational model sources. The ability of numerical weather prediction models to simulate the SPCZ depends on several factors: the accuracy of the large scale flow upstream of the zone, terrain resolution, grid scale, boundary layer parameterizations of stability, cumulus parameterizations, and microphysics schemes. This dissertation explores several of these issues with the aforementioned observations and with the Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) model simulations of selected SPCZ events. This dissertation first explains the conceptual models of the flow patterns related to the genesis of the SPCZ in light of other well-documented topographically-generated zones. The study then explores the links between the theoretical models and observations of the SPCZ in several episodes. With this foundation, the dissertation then tests several hypotheses relating to the horizontal and vertical zone structure, topographic sensitivity on the zone structure, and boundary layer evolution of the zone through the use of high resolution nested grid numerical simulations. The SPCZ consists of windward and leeward flow regimes in Idaho which form under low Froude number (stable blocked flow) in a post cold-frontal environment. The SPCZ is a weak baroclinic feature. The formation of the zone is independent of the vertical wind shear in the middle to upper troposphere. With a grid scale of 4 km, the WRF-ARW model adequately reproduces the post cold-frontal environment, windward and leeward convergence zones, relative vertical vorticity belts, and precipitation bands in several SPCZ cases. The vertical structure of the SPCZ reveals upright reflectivity towers with circulations that tilt slightly with height into the colder air aloft. Topographic sensitivity analyses of the SPCZ indicate that the terrain-driven circulations and resulting snow bands are more defined at the finer terrain scales. The ambient horizontal wind shear in the tributary valleys of the Central Mountains creates potential vorticity (PV) banners. The PV banner maintenance and strength are directly tied to the terrain resolution. An environment of convective instability sometimes occurs as a layer of air is lifted along the gentle elevation rise of the eastern Magic Valley and lower plain. An environment of inertial instability forms within the anticyclonic (negative) vorticity belts in the upper plain. Potential symmetric instability (PSI) may be released in a moist environment near the vorticity banners. The planetary boundary layer perturbed by the SPCZ inside the Snake River Plain is characterized by a deeper mixed layer with stronger vertical motions relative to a PBL in a sheltered valley outside the plain. Finally, a 10-year antecedent synoptic climatology of 78 SPCZ events reveals two pattern types: Type N (wet and warm) and Type S (dry and cold). The 40° N parallel divides these two synoptic patterns.

The Southeastern Aerosol Research and Characterization (SEARCH) study: spatial variations and chemical climatology, 1999-2010.

PubMed

Blanchard, C L; Hidy, G M; Tanenbaum, S; Edgerton, E S; Hartsell, B E

2013-03-01

The Southeastern Aerosol Research and Characterization (SEARCH) study, which has been in continuous operation from 1999 to 2012, was implemented to investigate regional and urban air pollution in the southeastern United States. With complementary data from other networks, the SEARCH measurements provide key knowledge about long-term urban/nonurban pollution contrasts and regional climatology affecting inland locations and sites along the Gulf of Mexico coastline. Analytical approaches ranging from comparisons of mean concentrations to the application of air mass trajectories and principal component analysis provide insight into local and area-wide pollution. Gases (carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, ozone, and ammonia), fine particle mass concentration, and fine particle species concentrations (including sulfate, elementary carbon, and organic carbon) are affected by a combination of regional conditions and local emission sources. Urban concentrations in excess of regional baselines and intraurban variations of concentrations depend on source proximity, topography, and local meteorological processes. Regional-scale pollution events (95th percentile concentrations) involving more than 6 of the 8 SEARCH sites are rare (< 2% of days), while subregional events affecting 4-6 sites occur on approximately 10% of days. Regional and subregional events are characterized by widely coincident elevated concentrations of ozone, sulfate, and particulate organic carbon, driven by persistent synoptic-scale air mass stagnation and higher temperatures that favor formation of secondary species, mainly in the summer months. The meteorological conditions associated with regional stagnation do not favor long-range transport of polluted air masses during episodes. Regional and subregional pollution events frequently terminate with southward and eastward penetration of frontal systems, which may initially reduce air pollutant concentrations more inland than along the Gulf Coast. Regional distribution of emission sources and synoptic-scale meteorological influences favoring stagnation lead to high regionwide pollution levels. The regional influence is greatest with secondary species, including ozone (03) particulate sulfate (SO4), and particulate organic matter, some of which is produced by atmospheric oxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from vegetation and anthropogenic sources. Other species, many of which are from primary emissions, are more influenced by local sources, especially within the Atlanta, GA, and Birmingham, AL, metropolitan areas. Limited measurements of modern and fossil total carbon point to the importance of biological and biogenic emissions in the Southeast.

Scenario-based risk analysis of winter snowstorms in the German lowlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Wulffen, Anja

2014-05-01

The northern German lowlands are not especially known for a high frequency of snowfall events. Nevertheless under certain synoptic conditions Lake-Effect-like phenomena caused by the proximity especially of the Baltic Sea can lead to significantly reinforced snowfall intensities that are often accompanied by rather high wind speeds. This makes for infrequent but potentially disastrous snowstorms in a region less accustomed to snow impacts. One possible consequence of an infrastructure failure cascade resulting from severe and longer-lasting snowstorms is a regional disruption of the food supply chain. In the context of "just-in-time"-logistics and the accompanying decrease of storage capabilities, this poses a significant threat to the population's food security. Within the project NeuENV ("New strategies to ensure sufficient food supply in case of crisis in Germany") a snowstorm in the German lowlands involving widespread disruptions of the transportation infrastructure as well as power failures is therefore used as one model for future food supply chain disruptions. In order to obtain a reliable evaluation of the supply chain and crisis management resilience, a detailed snowstorm scenario is being developed. For this purpose, a database of impact reports of past snowstorm events is assembled and analysed to obtain a comprehensive overview of potential infrastructure impairments and failures. Examples of events analysed in this context include the winter 1978/79 with its disastrous snow drifts that commonly attained heights of 3m to 5m leading to a transportation infrastructure collapse across a wide area, the wet snow event in November 2005 in the Münsterland region that caused power failures for up to 250.000 homes, and more recent snowstorms such as Daisy in January 2010. A catalogue of thresholds for relevant parameters indicating when significant failures can be expected is then compiled through a comparison of impact reports with the detailed meteorological conditions. Based on these findings, an exemplary synoptic evolution of a snowstorm leading to representative infrastructure failure cascades is constructed. In a next step, an extrapolation of this obtained scenario to future climate and societal conditions as well as plausible more extreme but not yet observed meteorological conditions is planned in order to obtain a thorough analysis of possible threats to the German food distribution system and a strong foundation for future disaster mitigation planning efforts.

On the wave number 2 eastward propagating quasi 2 day wave at middle and high latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Sheng-Yang; Liu, Han-Li; Pedatella, N. M.; Dou, Xiankang; Liu, Yu

2017-04-01

The temperature and wind data sets from the ensemble data assimilation version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model + Data Assimilation Research Testbed (WACCM + DART) developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) are utilized to study the seasonal variability of the eastward quasi 2 day wave (QTDW) with zonal wave number 2 (E2) during 2007. The aliasing ratio of E2 from wave number 3 (W3) in the synoptic WACCM data set is a constant value of 4 × 10-6% due to its uniform sampling pattern, whereas the aliasing is latitudinally dependent if the WACCM fields are sampled asynoptically based on the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) sampling. The aliasing ratio based on SABER sampling is 75% at 40°S during late January, where and when W3 peaks. The analysis of the synoptic WACCM data set shows that the E2 is in fact a winter phenomenon, which peaks in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere at high latitudes. In the austral winter period, the amplitudes of E2 can reach 10 K, 20 m/s, and 30 m/s for temperature, zonal, and meridional winds, respectively. In the boreal winter period, the wave perturbations are only one third as strong as those in austral winter. Diagnostic analysis also shows that the mean flow instabilities in the winter upper mesosphere polar region provide sources for the amplification of E2. This is different from the westward QTDWs, whose amplifications are related to the summer easterly jet. In addition, the E2 also peaks at lower altitude than the westward modes.

Prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients from ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems

DOE PAGES

Taraphdar, S.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Leung, L. Ruby; ...

2016-12-05

The prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients (SSTR) such as monsoon low and depression during the boreal summer of 2007–2009 are assessed using high resolution ECMWF and NCEP TIGGE forecasts data. By analyzing 246 forecasts for lead times up to 10 days, it is found that the models have good skills in forecasting the planetary scale means but the skills of SSTR remain poor, with the latter showing no skill beyond 2 days for the global tropics and Indian region. Consistent forecast skills among precipitation, velocity potential, and vorticity provide evidence that convection is the primary process responsible formore » precipitation. The poor skills of SSTR can be attributed to the larger random error in the models as they fail to predict the locations and timings of SSTR. Strong correlation between the random error and synoptic precipitation suggests that the former starts to develop from regions of convection. As the NCEP model has larger biases of synoptic scale precipitation, it has a tendency to generate more random error that ultimately reduces the prediction skill of synoptic systems in that model. Finally, the larger biases in NCEP may be attributed to the model moist physics and/or coarser horizontal resolution compared to ECMWF.« less

Comparison of Accuracy and Speed of Information Identification by Nonpathologists in Synoptic Reports With Different Formats.

PubMed

Renshaw, Andrew A; Gould, Edwin W

2017-03-01

- The College of American Pathologists requires synoptic reports for specific types of pathology reports. - To compare the accuracy and speed of information retrieval in synoptic reports of different formats. - We assessed the performance of 28 nonpathologists from 4 different types of users (cancer registrars, MDs, medical non-MDs, and nonmedical) at identifying specific information in various formatted synoptic reports, using a computerized quiz that measured both accuracy and speed. - There was no significant difference in the accuracy of data identification for any user group or in any format. While there were significant differences in raw time between users, these were eliminated when normalized times were used. Compared with the standard format of a required data element (RDE) and response on 1 line, both a list of responses without an RDE (21%, P < .001) and a paired response with more concise text (33%, P < .001) were significantly faster. In contrast, both the 2-line format (RDE header on one line, response indented on the second line) (12%, P < .001) and a report with the RDE response pairs in a random order were significantly slower (16%, P < .001). - There are significant differences in ease of use by nonpathologists between different synoptic report formats. Such information may be useful in deciding between different format options.

Atmospheric circulation patterns and spatial climatic variations in Beringia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mock, Cary J.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Patricia M.

1998-08-01

Analyses of more than 40 years of climatic data reveal intriguing spatial variations in climatic patterns for Beringia (North-eastern Siberia and Alaska), aiding the understanding of the hierarchy of climatic controls that operate at different spatial scales within the Arctic. A synoptic climatology, using a subjective classification methodology on January and July sea level pressure, and July 500 hPa height anomaly patterns, identified 13 major atmospheric circulation patterns (26 pairs consisting of 13 synoptic/temperature and 13 synoptic/precipitation comparisons) that occur over Beringia. Composite anomaly maps of circulation, temperature, and precipitation described the spatial variability of surface climatic responses to circulation. Results indicate that nine synoptic pairs yield homogeneous surface climatic anomaly patterns throughout most of Beringia. However, many of the surface climatic responses illustrate heterogeneous anomaly patterns as a result of variations in circulation controls, such as troughing over East Asia and the Pacific subtropical high superimposed over topography, with small shifts in atmospheric circulation dramatically altering spatial variations of anomaly patterns. Distinctive contrasts in climatic responses, as suggested from ten synoptic pairs, are clearly evident for Western Beringia versus Eastern Beringia. These results offer important implications for scholars interested in assessing late Quaternary climatic change in the region from interannual to millennial timescales.

Prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients from ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taraphdar, S.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Leung, L. Ruby

The prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients (SSTR) such as monsoon low and depression during the boreal summer of 2007–2009 are assessed using high resolution ECMWF and NCEP TIGGE forecasts data. By analyzing 246 forecasts for lead times up to 10 days, it is found that the models have good skills in forecasting the planetary scale means but the skills of SSTR remain poor, with the latter showing no skill beyond 2 days for the global tropics and Indian region. Consistent forecast skills among precipitation, velocity potential, and vorticity provide evidence that convection is the primary process responsible formore » precipitation. The poor skills of SSTR can be attributed to the larger random error in the models as they fail to predict the locations and timings of SSTR. Strong correlation between the random error and synoptic precipitation suggests that the former starts to develop from regions of convection. As the NCEP model has larger biases of synoptic scale precipitation, it has a tendency to generate more random error that ultimately reduces the prediction skill of synoptic systems in that model. Finally, the larger biases in NCEP may be attributed to the model moist physics and/or coarser horizontal resolution compared to ECMWF.« less

Meteotsunami ("Marrobbio") of 25-26 June 2014 on the Southwestern Coast of Sicily, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šepić, Jadranka; Vilibić, Ivica; Rabinovich, Alexander; Tinti, Stefano

2018-04-01

A major tsunami-like event, locally known as `marrobbio', impacted the southwestern coast of Sicily on 25-26 June 2014. The event was part of a chain of hazardous episodes in the Mediterranean and Black seas during the last week of June 2014 resulting from an anomalous atmospheric system ("tumultuous atmosphere") propagating eastward over the region. The synoptic patterns and vertical structure of the atmosphere over Sicily at the time of the event indicate that atmospheric wave ducting was responsible for the generation of tsunamigenic air pressure disturbances that produced especially high sea level responses ("meteotsunamis") at certain sites along the Sicilian coast. The strongest sea level oscillations were observed at Mazara del Vallo, where a 1-m meteotsunami bore, propagating upstream in the Mazaro River, was generated. The combined effects of external resonance (Proudman resonance on the western Sicilian shelf) and internal resonant conditions (bathymetric and topographic characteristics of specific sites) were found to be the key factors that caused the meteotsunami (marrobbio phenomenon) on the coast of Sicily and the meteobore at Mazara del Vallo.

Meteotsunami ("Marrobbio") of 25-26 June 2014 on the Southwestern Coast of Sicily, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šepić, Jadranka; Vilibić, Ivica; Rabinovich, Alexander; Tinti, Stefano

2018-03-01

A major tsunami-like event, locally known as `marrobbio', impacted the southwestern coast of Sicily on 25-26 June 2014. The event was part of a chain of hazardous episodes in the Mediterranean and Black seas during the last week of June 2014 resulting from an anomalous atmospheric system ("tumultuous atmosphere") propagating eastward over the region. The synoptic patterns and vertical structure of the atmosphere over Sicily at the time of the event indicate that atmospheric wave ducting was responsible for the generation of tsunamigenic air pressure disturbances that produced especially high sea level responses ("meteotsunamis") at certain sites along the Sicilian coast. The strongest sea level oscillations were observed at Mazara del Vallo, where a 1-m meteotsunami bore, propagating upstream in the Mazaro River, was generated. The combined effects of external resonance (Proudman resonance on the western Sicilian shelf) and internal resonant conditions (bathymetric and topographic characteristics of specific sites) were found to be the key factors that caused the meteotsunami (marrobbio phenomenon) on the coast of Sicily and the meteobore at Mazara del Vallo.

Analysis and Prediction of West African Moist Events during the Boreal Spring of 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mera, Roberto Javier

Weather and climate in Sahelian West Africa are dominated by two major wind systems, the southwesterly West African Monsoon (WAM) and the northeasterly (Harmattan) trade winds. In addition to the agricultural benefit of the WAM, the public health sector is affected given the relationship between the onset of moisture and end of meningitis outbreaks. Knowledge and prediction of moisture distribution during the boreal spring is vital to the mitigation of meningitis by providing guidance for vaccine dissemination. The goal of the present study is to (a) develop a climatology and conceptual model of the moisture regime during the boreal spring, (b) investigate the role of extra-tropical and Convectively-coupled Equatorial Waves (CCEWs) on the modulation of westward moving synoptic waves and (c) determine the efficacy of a regional model as a tool for predicting moisture variability. Medical reports during 2009, along with continuous meteorological observations at Kano, Nigeria, showed that the advent of high humidity correlated with cessation of the disease. Further analysis of the 2009 boreal spring elucidated the presence of short-term moist events that modulated surface moisture on temporal scales relevant to the health sector. The May moist event (MME) provided insight into interplays among climate anomalies, extra-tropical systems, equatorially trapped waves and westward-propagating synoptic disturbances. The synoptic disturbance initiated 7 May and traveled westward to the coast by 12 May. There was a marked, semi-stationary moist anomaly in the precipitable water field (kg m-2) east of 10°E through late April and early May, that moved westward at the time of the MME. Further inspection revealed a mid-latitude system may have played a role in increasing the latitudinal amplitude of the MME. CCEWs were also found to have an impact on the MME. A coherent Kelvin wave propagated through the region, providing increased monsoonal flow and heightened convection. A Ttropical Depression-type (TD-type) system developed on May 7 at 20°E and traveled westward with the MME. As this system progressed westward it induced important changes in surface moisture. The TD-type and Kelvin waves underwent phase coupling over central Nigeria (8°E), strengthening the westward-moving feature on May 9. Further evidence is presented that an ER wave also contributed to the development of the TD-type system. The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) was employed to simulate the environment during 2009 in seasonal and real-time forecast modes. WRF was configured during the 2006 boreal spring, given the increase in meteorological information through the Africa Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses project. The model simulated the moist events but tended to have a dry bias and a 2-day delay of the MME for the seasonal simulation. Real-time simulations were able to simulate the MME better than the seasonal run, temporally and spatially. The ensemble simulations served as a testbed for a new tool for the analysis of ensemble prediction skill called the extended ROC (EROC) method. The EROC retains the appealing simplicity of the traditional ROC method and the ability of the EV method to provide evaluation of the performance of an ensemble climate prediction system (EPS) for a hypothetical end user defined by the cost--loss ratio (micro=C/L). Seasonal simulations varied in their useable skill, with Bamako (Mali) as the location with the highest value. This study has revealed that moist events could be of crucial importance to meningitis mitigation. The systems constituting the MME represent predictable phenomena that can be forecasted days in advance. Real-time model simulations were able to diagnose the event 10 days in advance.

Synoptic versus regional causes of icing on wind turbines at an exposed wind farm site in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weissinger, Maximilian; Strauss, Lukas; Serafin, Stefano; Dorninger, Manfred; Burchhart, Thomas; Fink, Martin

2017-04-01

Ice accretion on wind turbine blades can lead to significant power production loss or even permanent structural damage on the turbine. With the ongoing construction of wind farms at sites with increased icing potential in cold climates, accurate icing predictions are needed to optimise power plant operation. To this end, the frequency of occurrence and the causes of meteorological icing need to be better understood. The project ICE CONTROL, an Austrian research initiative, aims to improve icing forecasts through measurements, probabilistic forecasting, and verification of icing on wind turbine blades. The project focuses on a wind farm site near Ellern, Germany, located on the Hunsrück, a hilly terrain rising above the surrounding plain by 200-300 metres. Production data from the last three winters show that icing events tend to occur more often at the wind turbines on top of the highest hills. The present study aims to investigate historical cases of wind turbine icing and their meteorological causes at the Ellern wind farm. The data available consists of a three-year period (2013-2016) of operational data from the Ellern wind farm as well as meteorological measurements at nearby stations operated by the German Weather Service (DWD). In addition, radiosondes and weather charts are taken into account. The main objective of this work is, first, to link the local and regional weather conditions to larger-scale weather patterns and prevailing air masses, and second, to determine the types of icing (in-cloud vs. freezing precipation). Results show that in most icing cases the cloud base height was below the hub height while the temperature was just below the freezing point. Precipitation was absent in most cases. This suggests that most of the observed icing events were due to in-cloud icing. Icing conditions occurred often (but not exclusively) under specific synoptic-scale weather conditions, such as north-westerly flow advecting maritime polar air masses to Central Europe. In other cases, icing events were favoured by the development of low-level thermal inversions during weak south-easterly flow conditions.

Electrified atmospheric dust during disturbed weather conditions in the Negev desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katz, Shai; Yair, Yoav; Price, Colin; Yaniv, Roy

2017-04-01

Dust storms over the Negev Desert in southern Israel are common and become frequent during the spring and autumn, depending on synoptic conditions and local effects. These storms are often accompanied by significant dust electrification, most likely due to saltation and triboelectric processes. We present new atmospheric electrical measurements conducted at the Wise Observatory (WO) in Mizpe-Ramon (30035'N, 34045'E) Israel, during two strong dust storms that occurred over the Negev desert on October 27-28th and December 1st, 2016. The first event generated a local gust front due to strong downdrafts from an active Cumulonimbus cloud (known as Haboob). In the second event, a Cyprus Low with strong synoptic-scale winds lifted the local sand particles at the Negev and lowered the visibility. During the passage of the dust storms above our instruments, very large fluctuations in the electric field (Ez) and current density (Jz) were measured. In the October Haboob event, the Ez data showed a superposition of signatures generated by lightning and by the dust aloft. The Ez values fluctuated between +123 to +2144 and -15336 to +19788 V m-1 for several hour-long episodes. The respective values of the vertical current density [Jz] were between -18 and +18 pA m-2. During the December dust storm we measured Ez values up to +4000 V m-1 lasting for 3.5 hours and another episode with values up to +668 V m-1 lasting for approximately 1.5 hours. These values were accompanied by changes in the Jz values between -16.5 and +17 pA m-2. The electric field and current density variability and amplitude are significantly different from the average fair-weather values measured at the Wise Observatory (Yaniv et al., 2016), which are 180 V m-1 and 2 pA m-1. We will show that these differences in the electrical behavior between these two dust storms may be related to the speed and direction of the wind near the surface.

WRF Simulations of the 20-22 January 2007 Snow Events over Eastern Canada: Comparison with In-Situ and Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shi, J. J.; Tao, W.-K.; Matsui, T.; Cifelli, R.; Huo, A.; Lang, S.; Tokay, A.; Peters-Lidard, C.; Jackson, G.; Rutledge, S.;

Groundwater contributions of flow, nitrate, and dissolved organic carbon to the lower San Joaquin River, California, 2006-08

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zamora, Celia; Dahlgren, Randy A.; Kratzer, Charles R.; Downing, Bryan D.; Russell, Ann D.; Dileanis, Peter D.; Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Phillips, Steven P.

2013-01-01

The influence of groundwater on surface-water quality in the San Joaquin River, California, was examined for a 59-mile reach from the confluence with Salt Slough to Vernalis. The primary objective of this study was to quantify the rate of groundwater discharged to the lower San Joaquin River and the contribution of nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations to the river. Multiple lines of evidence from four independent approaches were used to characterize groundwater contributions of nitrogen and dissolved organic carbon. Monitoring wells (in-stream and bank wells), streambed synoptic surveys (stream water and shallow groundwater), longitudinal profile surveys by boat (continuous water-quality parameters in the stream), and modeling (MODFLOW and VS2DH) provided a combination of temporal, spatial, quantitative, and qualitative evidence of groundwater contributions to the river and the associated quality. Monitoring wells in nested clusters in the streambed (in-stream wells) and on both banks (bank wells) along the river were monitored monthly from September 2006 to January 2009. Nitrate concentrations in the bank wells ranged from less than detection—that is, less than 0.01 milligrams per liter (mg/L) as nitrogen (N)—to approximately 13 mg/L as N. Nitrate was not detected at 17 of 26 monitoring wells during the study period. Dissolved organic carbon concentrations among monitoring wells were highly variable, but they generally ranged from 1 to 4 mg/L. In a previous study, 14 bank wells were sampled once in 1988 following their original installation. With few exceptions, specific conductivity and nitrate concentrations measured in this study were virtually identical to those measured 20 years ago. Streambed synoptic measurements were made by using a temporarily installed drive-point piezometer at 113 distinct transects across the stream during 4 sampling events. Nitrate concentrations exceeded the detection limit of 0.01 mg/L as N in 5 percent of groundwater samples collected from the in-stream wells as part of the synoptic surveys. Only 7 of the 113 cross-sectional transects had nitrate concentrations greater than 1 mg/L as N. In contrast, surface waters in the San Joaquin River tended to have nitrate concentrations in the 1–3 mg/L as N range. A zone of lower oxygen (less than 2 mg/L) in the streambed could limit nitrate contributions from regional groundwater flow because nitrate can be converted to nitrogen gas within this zone. Appreciable concentrations of ammonium (average concentration was 1.92 mg/L as N, and 95th percentile was 10.34 mg/L as N) in the shallow groundwater, believed to originate from anoxic mineralization of streambed sediments, could contribute nitrogen to the overlying stream as nitrate following in-stream nitrification, however. Dissolved organic carbon concentrations were highly variable in the shallow groundwater below the river (1 to 6 ft below streambed) and generally ranged between 1 and 5 mg/L, but had maximum concentrations in the 15–25 mg/L range. The longitudinal profile surveys were not particularly useful in identifying groundwater discharge areas. However, the longitudinal approach described in this report was useful as a baseline survey of measured water-quality parameters and for identifying tributary inflows that affect surface-water concentrations of nitrate. Results of the calibrated MODFLOW model indicated that the simulated groundwater discharge rate was approximately 1.0 cubic foot per second per mile (cfs/mi), and the predominant horizontal groundwater flow direction between the deep bank wells was westward beneath the river. The modeled (VS2DH) flux values (river gain versus river loss) were calculated for the irrigation and non-irrigation season, and these fluxes were an order of magnitude less than those from MODFLOW. During the irrigation season, the average river gain was 0.11 cfs/mi, and the average river loss was −0.05 cfs/mi. During the non-irrigation season, the average river gain was 0.10 cfs/mi, and the average river loss was -0.08 cfs/mi. Information on groundwater interactions and water quality collected for this study was used to estimate loads of nitrate and dissolved organic carbon from the groundwater to the San Joaquin River. Estimated loads of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and dissolved organic carbon were calculated by using concentrations measured during four streambed synoptic surveys and the estimated groundwater discharge rate to the San Joaquin River from MODFLOW of 1 cfs/mi. The estimated groundwater loads to the San Joaquin River for dissolved inorganic nitrogen and dissolved organic carbon were 300 and 350 kilograms per day, respectively. These loads represent 9 and 7 percent, respectively, of the estimated instantaneous surface-water loads for dissolved inorganic nitrogen and dissolved organic carbon at the most downstream site, Vernalis, measured during the four streambed synoptic surveys.

Astrophysics in the Era of Massive Time-Domain Surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djorgovski, G.

Synoptic sky surveys are now the largest data producers in astronomy, entering the Petascale regime, opening the time domain for a systematic exploration. A great variety of interesting phenomena, spanning essentially all subfields of astronomy, can only be studied in the time domain, and these new surveys are producing large statistical samples of the known types of objects and events for further studies (e.g., SNe, AGN, variable stars of many kinds), and have already uncovered previously unknown subtypes of these (e.g., rare or peculiar types of SNe). These surveys are generating a new science, and paving the way for even larger surveys to come, e.g., the LSST; our ability to fully exploit such forthcoming facilities depends critically on the science, methodology, and experience that are being accumulated now. Among the outstanding challenges, the foremost is our ability to conduct an effective follow-up of the interesting events discovered by the surveys in any wavelength regime. The follow-up resources, especially spectroscopy, are already and, for the predictable future, will be severely limited, thus requiring an intelligent down-selection of the most astrophysically interesting events to follow. The first step in that process is an automated, real-time, iterative classification of events, that incorporates heterogeneous data from the surveys themselves, archival and contextual information (spatial, temporal, and multiwavelength), and the incoming follow-up observations. The second step is an optimal automated event prioritization and allocation of the available follow-up resources that also change in time. Both of these challenges are highly non-trivial, and require a strong cyber-infrastructure based on the Virtual Observatory data grid, and the various astroinformatics efforts. Time domain astronomy is inherently an astronomy of telescope-computational systems, and will increasingly depend on novel machine learning and artificial intelligence tools. Another arena with a strong potential for discovery is a purely archival, non-time-critical exploration of the time domain, with the time dimension adding the complexity to an already challenging problem of data mining of highly-dimensional parameter spaces produced by sky surveys.

Impacts of synoptic condition and planetary boundary layer structure on the trans-boundary aerosol transport from Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Yucong; Guo, Jianping; Liu, Shuhua; Zhao, Chun; Li, Xiaolan; Zhang, Gen; Wei, Wei; Ma, Yanjun

2018-05-01

The northeastern China frequently experiences severe aerosol pollution in winter under unfavorable meteorological conditions. How and to what extent the meteorological factors affect the air quality there are not yet clearly understood. Thus, this study investigated the impacts of synoptic patterns on the aerosol transport and planetary boundary layer (PBL) structure in Shenyang from 1 to 3 December 2016, using surface observations, sounding measurements, satellite data, and three-dimensional simulations. Results showed that the aerosol pollution occurred in Shenyang was not only related to the local emissions, but also contributed by trans-boundary transport of aerosols from the Beiijng-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region. In the presence of the westerly and southwesterly synoptic winds, the aerosols emitted from BTH could be brought to Shenyang. From December 2 to 3, the aerosols emitted from BTH accounted for ∼20% of near-surface PM2.5 in Shenyang. In addition, the large-scale synoptic forcings could affect the vertical mixing of pollutants through modulating the PBL structure in Shenyang. The westerly and southwesterly synoptic winds not only brought the aerosols but also the warmer air masses from the southwest regions to Shenyang. The strong warm advections above PBL could enhance the already existing thermal inversion layers capping over PBL in Shenyang, leading to the suppressions of PBL. Both the trans-boundary transport of aerosols and the suppressions of PBL caused by the large-scale synoptic forcings should be partly responsible for the poor air quality in Shenyang, in addition to the high pollutant emissions. The present study revealed the physical mechanisms underlying the aerosol pollution in Shenyang, which has important implications for better forecasting and controlling the aerosols pollution.

Design of a consensus-derived synoptic operative report for lung cancer surgery.

PubMed

Schneider, Laura; Shargall, Yaron; Schieman, Colin; Seely, Andrew J; Srinathan, Sadeesh; Malthaner, Richard A; Pierre, Andrew F; Safieddine, Najib; Vaillancourt, Rosaire; Plourde, Madelaine; Bond, James; Johnson, Scott; Smith, Shona E; Finley, Christian J

2014-04-01

For lung cancer surgery, a narrative operative report is the standard reporting procedure, whereas a synoptic-style report is increasingly utilized by healthcare professionals in various specialties with great success. A synoptic operative report more succinctly and accurately captures vital information and is rapidly generated with good intraobserver reliability. The objective of this study was to systematically develop a synoptic operative report for lung cancer surgery following a modified Delphi consensus model with the support of the Canadian thoracic surgery community. Using online survey software, thoracic surgeons and related physicians were asked to suggest and rate data elements for a synoptic report following the modified Delphi consensus model. The consensus exercise-derived template was forwarded to a small working group, who further refined the definition and priority designation of elements until the working group had reached a satisfactory consensus. In all, 139 physicians were invited to participate in the consensus exercise, with 36.7%, 44.6%, and 19.5% response rates, respectively, in the three rounds. Eighty-nine elements were agreed upon at the conclusion of the exercise, but 141 elements were forwarded to the working group. The working group agreed upon a final data set of 180 independently defined data elements, with 72 mandatory and 108 optional elements for implementation in the final report. This study demonstrates the process involved in developing a multidisciplinary, consensus-based synoptic lung cancer operative report. This novel report style is a quality improvement initiative to improve the capture, dissemination, readability, and potential utility of critical surgical information. Copyright © 2014 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A SYNOPTIC APPROACH FOR ASSESSING CUMULATIVE IMPACTS TO WETLANDS

EPA Science Inventory

The US Environmental Protection Agency's Wetlands Research Program has developed the synoptic approach as a proposed method for assessing cumulative impacts to wetlands by providing both a general and a comprehensive view of the environment. It can also be applied more broadly to...

Sensitivity of a mesoscale model to initial specification of relative humidity, liquid water and vertical motion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalb, M. W.; Perkey, D. J.

1985-01-01

The influence of synoptic scale initial conditions on the accuracy of mesoscale precipitation modeling is investigated. Attention is focused on the relative importance of the water vapor, cloud water, rain water, and vertical motion, with the analysis carried out using the Limited Area Mesoscale Prediction System (LAMPS). The fully moist primitive equation model has 15 levels and a terrain-following sigma coordinate system. A K-theory approach was implemented to model the planetary boundary layer. A total of 15 sensitivity simulations were run to investigate the effects of the synoptic initial conditions of the four atmospheric variables. The absence of synoptic cloud and rain water amounts in the initialization caused a 2 hr delay in the onset of precipitation. The delay was increased if synoptic-scale vertical motion was used instead of mesoscale values. Both the delays and a choice of a smoothed moisture field resulted in underestimations of the total rainfall.

Relationship of Ground-level Ozone with Synoptic Weather Conditions in the Midwestern U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, P.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the relationship between ground-level ozone (O3) and synoptic weather conditions in the Midwestern U.S. over the period 1990-2015 using the air quality data obtained from the U.S. EPA Air Quality System (AQS) and meteorological data from NASA's Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis. The results show that among the six different types of Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) weather, the occurrence of dry tropical (DT) weather conditions is most likely to lead to high O3 concentrations. The summertime O3 concentrations in the Midwest decreased at an average rate of 0.7 ppb yr-1 in the 95th percentiles from 1990 to 2015 in response to NO2 emission controls. However, O3 has become more dependent on temperature since 2008 and this was accompanied by more frequent DT weather and air stagnation. The results have implications for the likely effect of future climate change on O3 as a result of modified synoptic weather conditions.

The life cycles of intense cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation systems observed over oceans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Phillip J.

1993-01-01

Full attention was now directed to the blocking case studies mentioned in previous reports. Coding and initial computational tests were completed for a North Atlantic blocking case that occurred in late October/early November 1985 and an upstream cyclone that developed rapidly 24 hours before block onset. This work is the subject of two papers accepted for presentation at the International Symposium on the Lifecycles of Extratropical Cyclones in Bergen, Norway, 27 June - 1 July 1994. This effort is currently highlighted by two features. The first is the extension of the Zwack-Okossi equation, originally formulated for the diagnosis of surface wave development, for application at any pressure level. The second is the separation of the basic large-scale analysis fields into synoptic-scale and planetary-scale components, using a two-dimensional Shapiro filter, and the corresponding partitioning of the Zwack-Okossi equation into synoptic-scale, planetary-scale, and synoptic/planetary-scale interaction terms. Preliminary tests suggest substantial contribution from the synoptic-scale and interaction terms.

An Air Mass Based Approach to the Establishment of Spring Season Synoptic Characteristics in the Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zander, R.; Messina, A.; Godek, M. L.

2012-12-01

The spring season is indicative of marked meteorological, ecological, and biological changes across the Northeast United States. The onset of spring coincides with distinct meteorological phenomena including an increase in severe weather events and snow meltwaters that can cause localized flooding and other costly damages. Increasing and variable springtime temperatures also influence Northeast tourist operations and agricultural productivity. Even with the vested interest of industry in the season and public awareness of the dynamic characteristics of spring, the definition of spring remains somewhat arbitrary. The primary goal of this research is to obtain a synoptic meteorological definition of the spring season through an assessment of air mass frequency over the past 60 years. A secondary goal examines the validity of recent speculations that the onset and termination of spring has changed in recent decades, particularly since 1975. The Spatial Synoptic Classification is utilized to define daily air masses over the region. Annual and seasonal baseline frequencies are identified and their differences are acquired to characterize the season. Seasonal frequency departures of the early and late segments of the period of record around 1975 are calculated and examined for practical and statistical significance. The daily boundaries of early and late spring are then isolated and frequencies are obtained for these periods. Boundary frequencies are assessed across the period of record to identify important changes in the season's initiation and termination through time. Results indicate that the Northeast spring season is dominated by dry air masses, mainly the Dry Moderate and Dry Polar types. Significant differences in seasonal air mass frequency are also observed through time. Prior to 1975, higher frequencies of polar air mass types are detected while after 1975 there is an increase in the frequencies of both moderate and tropical types. This finding is also identified for the onset of spring. Late spring frequencies are similar but with more variability in all moist variety air mass frequencies. These findings indicate that, from a synoptic perspective, springs in the Northeast can be defined by dry air mass conditions through time but modern springs are also warmer than those of past decades and the initiation of the season is likely arriving earlier. The end of the Northeast spring season may also be represented by more variable day-to-day air mass conditions in modern times than detected in past decades. 1950 - 1975 (black) and 1976 - 2010 (gray) Philadelphia, PA Spring air mass frequency (%).

Impacts of 2000-2050 Climate Change on Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Air Quality in China Based on Statistical Projections Using an Ensemble of Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, D. M.; Tai, A. P. K.; Shen, L.; Moch, J. M.; van Donkelaar, A.; Mickley, L. J.

2017-12-01

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality is strongly dependent on not only on emissions but also meteorological conditions. Here we examine the dominant synoptic circulation patterns that control day-to-day PM2.5 variability over China. We perform principal component (PC) analysis on 1998-2016 NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis I daily meteorological fields to diagnose distinct synoptic meteorological modes, and perform PC regression on spatially interpolated 2014-2016 daily mean PM2.5 concentrations in China to identify modes dominantly explaining PM2.5 variability. We find that synoptic systems, e.g., cold-frontal passages, maritime inflow and frontal precipitation, can explain up to 40% of the day-to-day PM2.5 variability in major metropolitan regions in China. We further investigate how annually changing frequencies of synoptic systems, as well as changing local meteorology, drive interannual PM2.5 variability. We apply a spectral analysis on the PC time series to obtain the 1998-2016 annual median synoptic frequency, and use a forward-selection multiple linear regression (MLR) model of satellite-derived 1998-2015 annual mean PM2.5 concentrations on local meteorology and synoptic frequency, selecting predictors that explain the highest fraction of interannual PM2.5 variability while guarding against multicollinearity. To estimate the effect of climate change on future PM2.5 air quality, we project a multimodel ensemble of 15 CMIP5 models under the RCP8.5 scenario on the PM2.5-to-meteorology sensitivities derived for the present-day from the MLR model. Our results show that climate change could be responsible for increases in PM2.5 of more than 25 μg m-3 in northwestern China and 10 mg m-3 in northeastern China by the 2050s. Increases in synoptic frequency of cold-frontal passages cause only a modest 1 μg m-3 decrease in PM2.5 in North China Plain. Our analyses show that climate change imposes a significant penalty on air quality over China and poses serious threat on human health under the RCP8.5 future.

Tropical disturbances in relation to general circulation modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estoque, M. A.

1982-01-01

The initial results of an evaluation of the performance of the Goddard Laboratory of Atmospheric Simulation general circulation model depicting the tropical atmosphere during the summer are presented. Because the results show the existence of tropical wave disturbances throughout the tropics, the characteristics of synoptic disturbances over Africa were studied and a synoptic case study of a selected disturbance in this area was conducted. It is shown that the model is able to reproduce wave type synoptic disturbances in the tropics. The findings show that, in one of the summers simulated, the disturbances are predominantly closed vortices; in another summer, the predominant disturbances are open waves.

Solar flare predictions and warnings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, K. P., III; Mayfield, E. B.

1973-01-01

The real-time solar monitoring information supplied to support SPARCS-equipped rocket launches, the routine collection and analysis of 3.3-mm solar radio maps, short-term flare forecasts based on these maps, longer-term forecasts based on the recurrence of active regions, and results of the synoptic study of solar active regions at 3.3-mm wavelength are presented. Forecasted flares in the 24-hour forecasts were 81% accurate, and those in the 28-day forecasts were 97% accurate. Synoptic radio maps at 3.3-mm wavelength are presented for twenty-three solar rotations in 1967 and 1968, as well as synoptic flare charts for the same period.

Variability of slope current positioning from space: Application to the Northern Current in the North Western Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouffard, Jerome; Marmain, Julien; Bosse, Anthony; Petrenko, Anne; Forget, Philippe; Doglioli, Andrea; Testor, Pierre; Mortier, Laurent

The space-time variability of slope currents plays a key role on the across-shore transport of natural and anthropogenic elements. It is therefore of critical importance to monitor the front positioning associated with these hydrodynamical features in a synoptic way, in particular along densely populated coasts such as the littoral zone of the Mediterranean Sea. Our paper proposes to address this issue by developing a new multi-satellite altimetric-based approach aiming at monitoring the long-term behaviour of the Northern Current, from 2002 to 2012. Our method is assessed by direct comparisons with observations from glider transects of the current, coastal HF radar and a moored current-meter. Despite important limitations due to the current altimetric sampling and a lower accuracy in the 50 km coastal band, we demonstrate the ability of our new method to characterize the variability of the front positioning from intra-seasonal to annual scales. We particularly focus the analysis on the Gulf of Lion, where the distance between the mean geostrophic flow and the coast allows a good detection of high frequency signals associated with slope current intrusions over the continental shelf. We show that such abrupt events generally occur in autumn and are forced by heterogeneous, strong and rapidly evolving south-easterly wind events. This work is based on an original exploitation of the existing along-track altimetry data and paves the way for new applications within the prospect of the next satellite generation whose technology is more suitable for coastal studies.

SYNOPTIC ASSESSMENT OF WETLAND FUNCTION: A PLANNING TOOL FOR PROTECTION OF WETLAND SPECIES DIVERSITY

EPA Science Inventory

We present a synoptic assessment intended to maximize the benefits to wetland species biodiversity gained through Clean Water Act regulatory efforts within 225 sub-basins in Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 7), USA. Our assessment...

Program Monitoring: Problems and Cases.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lundin, Edward; Welty, Gordon

Designed as the major component of a comprehensive model of educational management, a behavioral model of decision making is presented that approximates the synoptic model of neoclassical economic theory. The synoptic model defines all possible alternatives and provides a basis for choosing that alternative which maximizes expected utility. The…

A Survey of Synoptic Waves over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Yuan-Ming; Thorncroft, Chris D.; Kiladis, George N.

2017-04-01

Motivated by the pronounced wave-to-wave variability in African easterly wave (AEW) circulation, the three-dimensional structure of synoptic waves over West Africa is revisited with an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) approach to isolate the dominant wave pattern. In this talk we present results of EOF analyses conducted with brightness temperature (Tb) derived from satellite observation and meridional wind at multiple levels from reanalysis data to examine the characteristics and variability of synoptic waves. The structure of waves is extracted by projecting the wind fields and Tb onto the principle components associated with EOF patterns of appropriately filtered parameters. The Tb EOF shows a confined AEW circulation centered around 7.5°N and a distinct evolution of convection within the wave in line with previous research. However, in striking contrast to the confined flow pattern in the Tb EOF, the EOF of 700-hPa meridional wind is distinguished by a meridionally broad AEW circulation. While the peak in circulation is centered around 10°N, there is marked cross-equatorial flow that is associated with an antisymmetric geopotential signature across the equator. This suggests the presence of a mixed Rossby-gravity wave (MRG) structure consistent with Matsuno's shallow water theory. Granted that the vast majority of studies on MRGs focus on the central and western Pacific region, this "hybrid" between AEWs and MRGs over West Africa and Atlantic sector has received little attention and more work regarding the nature and causes of its wave structure and behavior is needed. In addition, an upper-level synoptic wave is captured by EOFs of 200-hPa meridional wind. The kinematic fields reveal a continental-scale wave straddling the equator that resembles an MRG. This upper-level MRG appears to develop in situ over the Horn of Africa and intensifies as it moves across the continent. The associated lower-level structure shows an AEW-like circulation but with a larger spatial extent. This finding motivates the need for more in-depth investigations of synoptic wave variability over the region including an assessment of the direction of causality between the upper-level MRG and the lower-level AEW. This study highlights the various synoptic wave structures over West Africa and their interaction with AEWs. The results suggest the variability of AEW activity could be modulated by, in addition to the large-scale environment, other synoptic waves in the region. We will pursue the EOF approach to shed light on the characteristics and causes of the variability in synoptic wave activity over West Africa.

Low-flow water-quality characterization of the Gore Creek watershed, upper Colorado River basin, Colorado, August 1996

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wynn, Kirby H.; Spahr, Norman E.

1998-01-01

The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCOL) is one of 59 National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) study units designed to assess the status and trends of the Nation?s water quality (Leahy and others, 1990). The UCOL study unit began operation in 1994, and surface-water-quality data collection at a network of 14 sites began in October 1995 (Apodaca and others, 1996; Spahr and others, 1996). Gore Creek, which flows through Vail, Colorado, originates in pristine alpine headwaters and is designated a gold-medal trout fishery. The creek drains an area of about 102 square miles and is a tributary to the Eagle River. Gore Creek at the mouth near Minturn (site 13 in fig. 1) is one of the 14 sites in the UCOL network. This site was selected to evaluate water quality resulting from urban development and recreational land use. The Gore Creek watershed has undergone rapid land-use changes since the 1960?s as the Vail area shifted from traditional mountain ranchlands to a four-season resort community. Residential, recreational, commercial, and transportation development continues near Gore Creek and its tributaries to support the increasing permanent and tourist population of the area. Interstate 70 runs through the watershed from Vail Pass near site 14, along the eastern side of Black Gore Creek, and along the northern side of the main stem of Gore Creek to the mouth of the watershed (fig. 1). A major local concern is how increasing urbanization/recreation affects the water quality, gold-medal trout fishery, and aesthetic values of Gore Creek. An evaluation of the spatial characteristics of water quality in the watershed upstream from site 13 at the mouth of Gore Creek (fig. 1) can provide local water and land managers with information necessary to establish water policy and make land-use planning decisions to maintain or improve water quality. Historical data collected at the mouth of Gore Creek provide information about water quality resulting from land use, but a synoptic sampling is needed to determine the distribution and sources of water-quality constituents at one point in time. In August 1996, a low-flow synoptic sampling for analyses of water-quality properties and constituents at sites in the Gore Creek watershed was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Town of Vail, Eagle River Water and Sanitation District, Upper Eagle River Water Authority, and Northwest Colorado Council of Governments, to evaluate the water quality of Gore Creek. The August low-flow period can be important from water-quality and stream ecology perspectives. There is less water available to dilute any contaminants entering the streams, and stream temperatures are highest during August. Physical habitat for aquatic plants and animals is smaller than during most other times of the year. To address these more extreme water-quality and ecological conditions, the synoptic sampling was conducted during the summer low-flow period. Specific objectives of this sampling included: 1. Establish a current data set representing the spatial characteristics of low-flow water-quality conditions in the Gore Creek watershed, and 2. Develop some understanding of land-use and water-quality relations in the watershed. This fact sheet presents hydrologic background information and an analysis of general water-quality properties and constituents, trace elements, and nutrients collected in water samples during low-flow synoptic sampling of the Gore Creek watershed. The U.S. Geological Survey also is conducting a study of the algae and macroinvertebrate communities and physical habitat of streams in the Gore Creek watershed during low flow. This study is designed to provide information about land-use and stream ecology relations in the watershed.

Convective signals from surface measurements at ARM Tropical Western Pacific site: Manus

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Yi; Long, Charles N.; Mather, James H.

2011-02-04

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signals have been detected using highly sampled observations from the U.S. DOE ARM Climate Research Facility located at the Tropical Western Pacific Manus site. Using downwelling shortwave radiative fluxes and derived shortwave fractional sky cover, and the statistical tools of wavelet, cross wavelet, and Fourier spectrum power, we report finding major convective signals and their phase change from surface observations spanning from 1996 to 2006. Our findings are confirmed with the satellite-gauge combined values of precipitation from the NASA Global Precipitation Climatology Project and the NOAA interpolated outgoing longwave radiation for the same location. We find thatmore » the Manus MJO signal is weakest during the strongest 1997-1998 El Nin˜o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) year. A significant 3-5-month lead in boreal winter is identified further between Manus MJO and NOAA NINO3.4 sea surface temperature (former leads latter). A striking inverse relationship is found also between the instantaneous synoptic and intraseasonal phenomena over Manus. To further study the interaction between intraseasonal and diurnal scale variability, we composite the diurnal cycle of cloudiness for 21-MJO events that have passed over Manus. Our diurnal composite analysis of shortwave and longwave fractional sky covers indicates that during the MJO peak (strong convection), the diurnal amplitude of cloudiness is reduced substantially, while the diurnal mean cloudiness reaches the highest value and there are no significant phase changes. We argue that the increasing diurnal mean and decreasing diurnal amplitude are caused by the systematic convective cloud formation that is associated with the wet phase of the MJO, while the diurnal phase is still regulated by the well-defined solar forcing. This confirms our previous finding of the anti-phase relationship between the synoptic and intraseasonal phenomena. The detection of theMJOover the Manus site provides further opportunities in using other ground-based remote sensing instruments to investigate the vertical distributions of clouds and radiative heatings of the MJO that currently is impossible from satellite observations.« less

Characteristics of early winter high Arctic atmospheric boundary layer profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wickström, Siiri; Vihma, Timo; Nygård, Tiina; Kramer, Daniel; Palo, Timo; Jonassen, Marius

2017-04-01

For a large part of the year, the Arctic climate system is characterised by a stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer, with strong temperature inversions isolating the surface from the air aloft. These nversions are typically driven by longwave radiative cooling, warm-air advection aloft, or subsidence. All these mechanisms are affected by the synoptic sate of the atmosphere in the high Arctic. In this study we present data from an intensive measurement campaign in Svalbard in October 2014, when atmospheric profiles were measured with a tethered balloon in Adventdalen and Hornsund. In addition radiosonde soundings from Ny-Ålesund were analysed. A total of 115 individual profiles were analysed, almost all of them showing a surface-based temperature inversion. Our preliminary results show that the strongest and deepest inversions are observed at the beginning of a warm-air advection event, but as the temperature, wind and cloudiness increase the inversion strength and depth decrease rapidly. The inversion curvature parameter seems to be strongly dependent on the longwave radiative balance with the highest curvatures (strongest vertical temperature gradient close to the surface) associated with strong longwave radiative heat loss from the surface. The different processes affecting the stable atmospheric boundary layer during a low-pressure passage are determined, and the effects of the synoptic scale changes are isolated from those caused by local topographic forcing.

Hydrologic processes in China and their association with summer precipitation anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Pollard, D.; Barron, E. J.

2005-01-01

A climate version of MM5 is applied to study hydrologic processes in China and their association with precipitation anomalies in 1980 and 1985, which are two anomalous years with opposite signs of summer precipitation anomalies. The study reveals that anomalous atmospheric moisture transport due to synoptic scale circulation was primarily responsible for initiating the anomalous wet (dry) summer in south-central China and dry (wet) summer in northeastern China in 1980 (1985). The recycling ratio (defined as contribution of local evaporation to total precipitation) ranges from less than 4% in northwestern China to more than 30% in south-central China at 1000 km space scale. Higher (lower) values of recycling ratio correspond to drier (wetter) summers in south-central China and northeastern China. However, the opposite is true in northwestern China. The recycling ratio reflects feedback among hydrologic components over both land and atmosphere. In northwestern China, these feedbacks will further sustain drought events that are triggered by anomalous synoptic scale disturbances, and turn them into prolonged and possibly perpetual phenomenon. However, in south-central China and northeastern China, these feedbacks help reducing severity of drought. The large differences in recycling ratio between the dry and wet years of 1980 and 1985 are indicative of powerful feedback between hydrologic and climatic processes, and imply that surface-atmosphere interaction in China is highly sensitive to climatic perturbation.

Landscape Characteristics and Variations in Longitudinal Stream Flow Contribution in two Headwater Semi-Arid Mountain Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shakespeare, B.; Gooseff, M. N.

2005-12-01

Understanding what role particular catchment attributes (slope, aspect, landcover, and contributing area) play in the contribution of stream flow is important for land management decisions, especially in the semi-arid western areas of the United States. Our study site is paired small catchments (approximately 9 and 11 km2) in the headwaters of the Weber drainage basin in Northern Utah. These catchments are surrounded by Wasatch formation with loamy textured soils. One catchment is predominantly underlain by quartzite while the other catchment is mostly underlain by limestone. We measured lateral flow gains every 200 to 400 meters using salt dilution gauging techniques throughout the ~5 km long streams. These measurements were taken synoptically 3 times during the seasonal discharge recession (summer 2005). The flows ranged spatially from 4 L s-1 to 55 L s-1 and varied temporally by as much as 50% when comparing the same reaches. Using GIS software, landscape analysis of slope, aspect, contributing area, topographic convergence, riparian and hillslope area, and landcover was performed for each of the delineated stream reach contributing areas. The results were tested for correlations between lateral flow gains measured in the field and different landscape characteristics. Each of the synoptic events was compared with each other to explore effects of seasonal recession on the relationships between flow gain and landscape characteristics.

Air flow analysis in the upper Río Negro Valley (Argentina)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cogliati, M. G.; Mazzeo, N. A.

2006-06-01

The so called Upper Río Negro Valley in Argentina is one of the most important fruit and vegetable production regions of the country. It comprises the lower valleys of the Limay and Neuquén rivers and the upper Negro river valley. Out of the 41,671 cultivated hectares, 84.6% are cultivated with fruit trees, especially apple, pear and stone fruit trees. Late frosts occurring when trees are sensitive to low temperatures have a significant impact on the regional production. This study presents an analysis of air flow characteristics in the Upper Río Negro Valley and its relationship with ambient air flow. To such effect, observations made when synoptic-scale weather patterns were favorable for radiative frosts (light wind and clear sky) or nocturnal temperature inversion in the lower layer were used. In the Negro river valley, both wind channeling and downward horizontal momentum transport from ambient wind were observed; in nighttime, very light wind events occurred, possibly associated with drainage winds from the nearby higher levels of the barda. In the Neuquén river valley, the prevailing effect appeared to be forced channeling, consistent with the results obtained in valleys where the synoptic scale wind crossed the axis of the valley. In the Limay river valley, the flow was observed to blow parallel to the longitudinal valley axis, possibly influenced by pressure gradient and forced channeling.

SYNOPTIC ASSESSMENT OF WETLAND FUNCTION: A PLANNING TOOL FOR PROTECTION OF WETLAND SPECIES BIODIVERSITY

EPA Science Inventory

We present a synoptic assessment intended to maximize the benefits to wetland species biodiversity gained through Clean Water Act regulatory efforts within 225 sub-basins in Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas (U.S. EPA, Region 7) USA. Our assessment provides a method for identif...

SYNOPTIC ASSESSMENT OF WETLAND FUNCTION: A PLANNING TOOL FOR PROTECTION OF WETLAND SPECIES BIODIVERSITY

EPA Science Inventory

We present a synoptic assessment intended to maximize the benefits to wetland species biodiversity gained through Clean Water Act regulatory efforts within 225 sub-basins in Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas (U.S. EPA, Region 7), USA. Our assessment provides a method for identi...

Frontiers of Remote Sensing of the Oceans and Troposphere from Air and Space Platforms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1984-01-01

Several areas of remote sensing are addressed including: future satellite systems; air-sea interaction/wind; ocean waves and spectra/S.A.R.; atmospheric measurements (particulates and water vapor); synoptic and weather forecasting; topography; bathymetry; sea ice; and impact of remote sensing on synoptic analysis/forecasting.

Wave Driven Disturbances of the Thermal Structure in the Polar Winter Upper Stratosphere and Lower Mesosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greer, Katelynn R.

The polar winter middle atmosphere is a dynamically active region that is driven primarily by wave activity. Planetary waves intermittently disturbed the region at different levels and the most spectacular type of disturbance is a major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW). However, other types of extreme disturbances occur on a more frequent, intraseasonal basis. One such disturbance is a synoptic-scale "weather event" observed in lidar and rocket soundings, soundings from the TIMED/SABER instrument and UK Meteorological Office (MetO) assimilated data. These disturbances are most easily identified near 42 km where temperatures are elevated over baseline conditions by a remarkable 50 K and an associated cooling is observed near 75 km. As these disturbances have a coupled vertical structure extending into the lower mesosphere, they are termed Upper Stratospheric/Lower Mesospheric (USLM) disturbances. This research begins with description of the phenomenology of USLM events in observations and the assimilated data set MetO, develops a description of the dynamics responsible for their development and places them in the context of the family of polar winter middle atmospheric disturbances. Climatologies indicates that USLM disturbances are commonly occurring polar wintertime disturbances of the middle atmosphere, have a remarkably repeating thermal structure, are located on the East side of the polar low and are related planetary wave activity. Using the same methodology for identifying USLM events and building climatologies of these events, the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model WACCM version 4 is established to spontaneously and internally generate USLM disturbances. Planetary waves are seen to break at a level just above the stratopause and convergence of the EP-flux vector is occurring in this region, decelerating the eastward zonal-mean wind and inducing ageostrophic vertical motion to maintain mass continuity. The descending air increases the horizontal temperature gradient at 2 hPa and is responsible for the stratopause warming. Embedded in this planetary wave breaking process is baroclinic instability, as indicated by the Charney-Stern criteria and an EP-flux analysis decomposed by planetary and synoptic-scale waves. It is recognized that USLM events are part of a family of disturbances that occur in the polar winter middle atmosphere which have the potential to impact the entire atmospheric column. Relationships between USLM events, minor SSWs and major SSWs are examined and displayed through a Venn diagram which looked for events that were linked to each other (or not) by temporal evolution of the polar vortex within 14 days. Critically, every identified major SSW (in both MetO and WACCM) is preceded by a USLM disturbance, and the baroclinic instability that is embedded in the planetary wave breaking of USLM disturbances mark significant disruption to the middle atmosphere, which may aid in the forecast of major SSWs. This leads to the proposal of new dynamics based definitions of minor and major SSWs.

Occurrence and Distribution of Organic Wastewater Compounds in Rock Creek Park, Washington, D.C., 2007-08

USGS Publications Warehouse

Phelan, Daniel J.; Miller, Cherie V.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, and the National Park Service Police Aviation Group, conducted a high-resolution, low-altitude aerial thermal infrared survey of the Washington, D.C. section of Rock Creek Basin within the Park boundaries to identify specific locations where warm water was discharging from seeps or pipes to the creek. Twenty-three stream sites in Rock Creek Park were selected based on the thermal infrared images. Sites were sampled during the summers of 2007 and 2008 for the analysis of organic wastewater compounds to verify potential sources of sewage and other anthropogenic wastewater. Two sets of stormwater samples were collected, on June 27-28 and September 6, 2008, at the Rock Creek at Joyce Road water-quality station using an automated sampler that began sampling when a specified stage threshold value was exceeded. Passive-sampler devices that accumulate organic chemicals over the duration of deployment were placed in July 2008 at the five locations that had the greatest number of detections of organic wastewater compounds from the June 2007 base-flow sampling. During the 2007 base-flow synoptic sampling, there were ubiquitous low-level detections of dissolved organic wastewater indicator compounds such as DEET, caffeine, HHCB, and organophosphate flame retardants at more than half of the 23 sites sampled in Rock Creek Park. Concentrations of DEET and caffeine in the tributaries to Rock Creek were variable, but in the main stem of Rock Creek, the concentrations were constant throughout the length of the creek, which likely reflects a distributed source. Organophosphate flame retardants in the main stem of Rock Creek were detected at estimated concentrations of 0.2 micrograms per liter or less, and generally did not increase with distance downstream. Overall, concentrations of most wastewater indicators in whole-water samples in the Park were similar to the concentrations found at the upstream sampling station at the Maryland/District of Columbia boundary. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons were the dominant organic compounds found in the stormwater samples at the Joyce Road station. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons were consistently found in higher concentrations either in sediment or in whole-water samples than in the dissolved samples collected during base-flow conditions at the 23 synoptic sites, or in the Joyce Road station stormwater samples.

Modulation of equatorial Pacific westerly/easterly wind events by the Madden-Julian oscillation and convectively-coupled Rossby waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puy, Martin; Vialard, J.; Lengaigne, M.; Guilyardi, E.

2016-04-01

Synoptic wind events in the equatorial Pacific strongly influence the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolution. This paper characterizes the spatio-temporal distribution of Easterly (EWEs) and Westerly Wind Events (WWEs) and quantifies their relationship with intraseasonal and interannual large-scale climate variability. We unambiguously demonstrate that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Convectively-coupled Rossby Waves (CRW) modulate both WWEs and EWEs occurrence probability. 86 % of WWEs occur within convective MJO and/or CRW phases and 83 % of EWEs occur within the suppressed phase of MJO and/or CRW. 41 % of WWEs and 26 % of EWEs are in particular associated with the combined occurrence of a CRW/MJO, far more than what would be expected from a random distribution (3 %). Wind events embedded within MJO phases also have a stronger impact on the ocean, due to a tendency to have a larger amplitude, zonal extent and longer duration. These findings are robust irrespective of the wind events and MJO/CRW detection methods. While WWEs and EWEs behave rather symmetrically with respect to MJO/CRW activity, the impact of ENSO on wind events is asymmetrical. The WWEs occurrence probability indeed increases when the warm pool is displaced eastward during El Niño events, an increase that can partly be related to interannual modulation of the MJO/CRW activity in the western Pacific. On the other hand, the EWEs modulation by ENSO is less robust, and strongly depends on the wind event detection method. The consequences of these results for ENSO predictability are discussed.

Large-scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation Events over Portland, OR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aragon, C.; Loikith, P. C.; Lintner, B. R.; Pike, M.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events can have profound impacts on human life and infrastructure, with broad implications across a range of stakeholders. Changes to extreme precipitation events are a projected outcome of climate change that warrants further study, especially at regional- to local-scales. While global climate models are generally capable of simulating mean climate at global-to-regional scales with reasonable skill, resiliency and adaptation decisions are made at local-scales where most state-of-the-art climate models are limited by coarse resolution. Characterization of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events at local-scales can provide climatic information without this scale limitation, thus facilitating stakeholder decision-making. This research will use synoptic climatology as a tool by which to characterize the key large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events in the Portland, Oregon metro region. Composite analysis of meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation days, and associated watershed-specific flooding, is employed to enhance understanding of the climatic drivers behind such events. The self-organizing maps approach is then used to characterize the within-composite variability of the large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events, allowing us to better understand the different types of meteorological conditions that lead to high-impact precipitation events and associated hydrologic impacts. A more comprehensive understanding of the meteorological drivers of extremes will aid in evaluation of the ability of climate models to capture key patterns associated with extreme precipitation over Portland and to better interpret projections of future climate at impact-relevant scales.

A teleconnection between subtropical convection and higher latitude wave activity in the Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cruz, Antonio DeJesus

Rossby waves are waves in potential vorticity that propagate along the extratropical tropopause and can be impacted by the advection of low-PV air originating from the subtropics. In this study, the subtropical precipitation influence on the extratropical Rossby wave activity during the Atlantic winter season is investigated for a ten year period. Using both TRMM and TIGGE 12-Hr forecasted precipitation data, heavy precipitation events were identified near the footprints regions of warm conveyor belts in the northern Atlantic, specifically in the Gulf of Mexico and Bermuda region. The extratropical Rossby waves were then analyzed using PV on a 320K surface. By use of wavelet transforms, the amplitude of the Rossby waves were analyzed as a function of wavelength and longitude. The interaction between a single heavy precipitation event and the extratropical Rossby waves was examined for the days preceding and the week following the event. A climatological analysis of heavy precipitation events was conducted on the winter seasons from 2006 - 2015. Case study and climatological analysis identified the following: A ridge in the Northern Atlantic undergoes amplification downstream of the heavy precipitation event in the days following the event. A southerly flow, likely associated with a warm conveyor belt, connects the region of the heavy precipitation event and the extratropical tropopause. The interaction was most prominent during the late winter season and during the heaviest of precipitation events. The teleconnection identified in this study highlights a mechanism by which cloud-scale subtropical precipitation is connected to synoptic scale extratropical dynamics in the Atlantic.

Circulation patterns and wave climate along the coast of the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasilla Álvarez, D.; García Codrán, J. C.

2010-09-01

Evidences of an active erosion (beach retreat, falling cliffs, damaged infrastructures) are observed in many coastal areas around the Iberian Peninsula. Morphogenetic coastal processes result from individual episodes of storminess that can accelerate or mitigate the expected impacts of the global rising trend of average sea levels. Thus, a good understanding of the local forcing processes is required in order to assess the impacts of future sea levels. The spatial and temporal variability of the wave climate along the cost of the Iberian Peninsula and their relationships with regional scale circulation patterns and local-scale winds are the main objectives of this contribution. The oceanographic data set consists of observed hourly data from 7 buoys disseminated along the Spanish coastline, and hindcasted 3-hourly analogous parameters (SIMAR 44 database), provided by Puertos del Estado. Sea level pressure, surface 10m U and V wind components gridded data were obtained from NCEP Reanalysis, while storm tracks and cyclone statistics were extracted from the CDC Map Room Climate Products Storm Track Data (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/st_data.html). The influence of the local conditions was highlighted comparing meteorological data from the buoys and synop reports from coastal stations. To explore the regional atmospheric mechanisms responsible for the wave variability, a regional Eulerian approach (a synoptic typing) were combined with a larger-scale Lagrangian method, based on the analysis of storm-tracks over the area. The synoptic catalogue was obtained following a well-known procedure that combines Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for reduction purposes and clustering (Ward plus K-means) to define the circulation types. As expected, rougher wave climate are observed along the northern and western coast of the Iberian Peninsula, open to the Atlantic storms. The Mediterranean shorelines experiences calmer conditions, although the Gulf of Lions, Catalonian coast and Balearic Islands suffer stormier episodes than Mar de Alborán. Moderate wave power conditions occurred frequently by circulation patterns predominately stable and characterized by weak (mostly sea breezes) winds. Synoptic situations dominated by extra-tropical cyclones produced the highest, but least frequent wave power conditions. Depending on the location of the shorelines, three types of storm events are defined: 1. Long winds fetch and locally strong westerly and northwesterly winds expose the northern coast of Iberia to episodes of intense storminess. Extratropical disturbances tracking between the 50-60°N parallels are the main forcing mechanism of those episodes, many of them result of a cyclogenesis processes along the eastern coast of North America. In some cases, the systems evolves as a secondary cyclon, crossing the area southward of the 50°N parallel; significant wave heights can be as high as the northernmost cyclones, but the wave period is slightly lower. 2.Cyclones tracking along the 40°N parallel bring stormy conditions to the western coast and the Gulf of Cádiz area, associated to southwesterly winds. 3. Finally, the Mediterranean shoreline suffer the worst conditions during easterly and northeasterly wind events, usually dominanted by local disturbances formed along the Western Mediterranean basin. Trends observed on the different circulation patterns can explain the temporal evolution of the wave climate along the Spanish coast, characterized by calmer conditions on the south and an increase of the wave period on the north, without discernible wave height trend. The overall results indicated that this synoptic climatological approach provides a viable framework to establish and examine links between weather systems and wave conditions.

Meteorological regimes for the classification of aerospace air quality predictions for NASA-Kennedy Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephens, J. B.; Sloan, J. C.

1976-01-01

A method is described for developing a statistical air quality assessment for the launch of an aerospace vehicle from the Kennedy Space Center in terms of existing climatological data sets. The procedure can be refined as developing meteorological conditions are identified for use with the NASA-Marshall Space Flight Center Rocket Exhaust Effluent Diffusion (REED) description. Classical climatological regimes for the long range analysis can be narrowed as the synoptic and mesoscale structure is identified. Only broad synoptic regimes are identified at this stage of analysis. As the statistical data matrix is developed, synoptic regimes will be refined in terms of the resulting eigenvectors as applicable to aerospace air quality predictions.

Intercomparisons of radiosondes and an airborne refractometer for measuring radio ducts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrissey, J. F.; Izumi, Y.; Cote, O. R.

1986-07-01

The capabilities of two types of radiosondes and an aircraft refractometer to measure radio ducting conditions were compared in a series of flights in September 1985 at Chatham, Mass., on Cape Cod. The tests were part of a program studying radio propagation on Air Force communication links. The intercomparisons were made between data from a refractometer mounted on a small single engine aircraft (Cessna 172) and data from an operational National Weather Service synoptic sounding system. The synoptic sonde and the portable sonde were often on the same balloon train. The comparisons show that the aircraft refractometer data indicate the highest number of ducts and the synoptic data the least number of ducts.

Modelling habitat associations with fingernail clam (Family: Sphaeriidae) counts at multiple spatial scales using hierarchical count models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, B.R.; Haro, R.J.; Rogala, J.T.; Sauer, J.S.

2005-01-01

1. Macroinvertebrate count data often exhibit nested or hierarchical structure. Examples include multiple measurements along each of a set of streams, and multiple synoptic measurements from each of a set of ponds. With data exhibiting hierarchical structure, outcomes at both sampling (e.g. Within stream) and aggregated (e.g. Stream) scales are often of interest. Unfortunately, methods for modelling hierarchical count data have received little attention in the ecological literature. 2. We demonstrate the use of hierarchical count models using fingernail clam (Family: Sphaeriidae) count data and habitat predictors derived from sampling and aggregated spatial scales. The sampling scale corresponded to that of a standard Ponar grab (0.052 m(2)) and the aggregated scale to impounded and backwater regions within 38-197 km reaches of the Upper Mississippi River. Impounded and backwater regions were resampled annually for 10 years. Consequently, measurements on clams were nested within years. Counts were treated as negative binomial random variates, and means from each resampling event as random departures from the impounded and backwater region grand means. 3. Clam models were improved by the addition of covariates that varied at both the sampling and regional scales. Substrate composition varied at the sampling scale and was associated with model improvements, and reductions (for a given mean) in variance at the sampling scale. Inorganic suspended solids (ISS) levels, measured in the summer preceding sampling, also yielded model improvements and were associated with reductions in variances at the regional rather than sampling scales. ISS levels were negatively associated with mean clam counts. 4. Hierarchical models allow hierarchically structured data to be modelled without ignoring information specific to levels of the hierarchy. In addition, information at each hierarchical level may be modelled as functions of covariates that themselves vary by and within levels. As a result, hierarchical models provide researchers and resource managers with a method for modelling hierarchical data that explicitly recognises both the sampling design and the information contained in the corresponding data.

Long-term variability of dust events in Iceland (1949-2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dagsson-Waldhauserova, P.; Arnalds, O.; Olafsson, H.

2014-06-01

Long-term frequency of atmospheric dust observations was investigated for the southern part of Iceland and merged with results obtained from the Northeast Iceland (Dagsson-Waldhauserova et al., 2013). In total, over 34 dust days per year on average occurred in Iceland based on conventionally used synoptic codes for dust. Including codes 04-06 into the criteria for dust observations, the frequency was 135 dust days annually. The Sea Level Pressure (SLP) oscillation controlled whether dust events occurred in NE (16.4 dust days annually) or in southern part of Iceland (about 18 dust days annually). The most dust-frequent decade in S Iceland was the 1960s while the most frequent decade in NE Iceland was the 2000s. A total of 32 severe dust storms (visibility < 500 m) was observed in Iceland with the highest frequency during the 2000s in S Iceland. The Arctic dust events (NE Iceland) were typically warm and during summer/autumn (May-September) while the Sub-Arctic dust events (S Iceland) were mainly cold and during winter/spring (March-May). About half of dust events in S Iceland occurred in winter or at sub-zero temperatures. A good correlation was found between PM10 concentrations and visibility during dust observations at the stations Vik and Storhofdi. This study shows that Iceland is among the dustiest areas of the world and dust is emitted the year-round.

Water level observations in mangrove swamps during two hurricanes in Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krauss, K.W.; Doyle, T.W.; Doyle, T.J.; Swarzenski, C.M.; From, A.S.; Day, Richard H.; Conner, W.H.

2009-01-01

Little is known about the effectiveness of mangroves in suppressing water level heights during landfall of tropical storms and hurricanes. Recent hurricane strikes along the Gulf Coast of the United States have impacted wetland integrity in some areas and hastened the need to understand how and to what degree coastal forested wetlands confer protection by reducing the height of peak water level. In recent years, U.S. Geological Survey Gulf Coast research projects in Florida have instrumented mangrove sites with continuous water level recorders. Our ad hoc network of water level recorders documented the rise, peak, and fall of water levels (?? 0.5 hr) from two hurricane events in 2004 and 2005. Reduction of peak water level heights from relatively in-line gages associated with one storm surge event indicated that mangrove wetlands can reduce water level height by as much as 9.4 cm/km inland over intact, relatively unchannelized expanses. During the other event, reductions were slightly less for mangroves along a river corridor. Estimates of water level attenuation were within the range reported in the literature but erred on the conservative side. These synoptic data from single storm events indicate that intact mangroves may support a protective role in reducing maximum water level height associated with surge.

Atmospheric boundary layer effects induced by the 20 March 2015 solar eclipse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gray, Suzanne L.; Harrison, R. Giles

2016-04-01

The British Isles benefits from dense meteorological observation networks, enabling insights into the still-unresolved effects of solar eclipse events on the near-surface wind field. The near-surface effects of the solar eclipse of 20 March 2015 are derived through comparison of output from the Met Office's operational weather forecast model (which is ignorant of the eclipse) with data from two meteorological networks: the Met Office's land surface station (MIDAS) network and a roadside measurement network operated by Vaisala. Synoptic-evolution relative calculations reveal the cooling and increase in relative humidity almost universally attributed to eclipse events. In addition, a slackening of wind speeds by up to about 2 knots in already weak winds and backing in wind direction of about 20 degrees under clear skies across middle England are attributed to the eclipse event. The slackening of wind speed is consistent with the previously reported boundary layer stabilisation during eclipse events. Wind direction changes have previously been attributed to a large-scale `eclipse-induced cold-cored cyclone', mountain slope flows, and changes in the strength of sea breezes. A new explanation is proposed here by analogy with nocturnal wind changes at sunset and shown to predict direction changes consistent with those observed.

Shoreline oiling effects and recovery of salt marsh macroinvertebrates from the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

PubMed Central

Fleeger, John W.; Bourgoin, Stefan M.; Mendelssohn, Irving A.; Lin, Qianxin; Hou, Aixin

2017-01-01

Salt marshes in northern Barataria Bay, Louisiana, USA were oiled, sometimes heavily, in the aftermath of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Previous studies indicate that fiddler crabs (in the genus Uca) and the salt marsh periwinkle (Littoraria irrorata) were negatively impacted in the short term by the spill. Here, we detail longer-term effects and recovery from moderate and heavy oiling over a 3-year span, beginning 30 months after the spill. Although neither fiddler crab burrow density nor diameter differed between oiled and reference sites when combined across all sampling events, these traits differed among some individual sampling periods consistent with a pattern of lingering oiling impacts. Periwinkle density, however, increased in all oiling categories and shell-length groups during our sampling period, and periwinkle densities were consistently highest at moderately oiled sites where Spartina alterniflora aboveground biomass was highest. Periwinkle shell length linearly increased from a mean of 16.5 to 19.2 mm over the study period at reference sites. In contrast, shell lengths at moderately oiled and heavily oiled sites increased through month 48 after the spill, but then decreased. This decrease was associated with a decline in the relative abundance of large adults (shell length 21–26 mm) at oiled sites which was likely caused by chronic hydrocarbon toxicity or oil-induced effects on habitat quality or food resources. Overall, the recovery of S. alterniflora facilitated the recovery of fiddler crabs and periwinkles. However, our long-term record not only indicates that variation in periwinkle mean shell length and length-frequency distributions are sensitive indicators of the health and recovery of the marsh, but agrees with synoptic studies of vegetation and infaunal communities that full recovery of heavily oiled sites will take longer than 66 months. PMID:28828273

Shoreline oiling effects and recovery of salt marsh macroinvertebrates from the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill.

PubMed

Deis, Donald R; Fleeger, John W; Bourgoin, Stefan M; Mendelssohn, Irving A; Lin, Qianxin; Hou, Aixin

2017-01-01

Salt marshes in northern Barataria Bay, Louisiana, USA were oiled, sometimes heavily, in the aftermath of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Previous studies indicate that fiddler crabs (in the genus Uca ) and the salt marsh periwinkle ( Littoraria irrorata) were negatively impacted in the short term by the spill. Here, we detail longer-term effects and recovery from moderate and heavy oiling over a 3-year span, beginning 30 months after the spill. Although neither fiddler crab burrow density nor diameter differed between oiled and reference sites when combined across all sampling events, these traits differed among some individual sampling periods consistent with a pattern of lingering oiling impacts. Periwinkle density, however, increased in all oiling categories and shell-length groups during our sampling period, and periwinkle densities were consistently highest at moderately oiled sites where Spartina alterniflora aboveground biomass was highest. Periwinkle shell length linearly increased from a mean of 16.5 to 19.2 mm over the study period at reference sites. In contrast, shell lengths at moderately oiled and heavily oiled sites increased through month 48 after the spill, but then decreased. This decrease was associated with a decline in the relative abundance of large adults (shell length 21-26 mm) at oiled sites which was likely caused by chronic hydrocarbon toxicity or oil-induced effects on habitat quality or food resources. Overall, the recovery of S. alterniflora facilitated the recovery of fiddler crabs and periwinkles. However, our long-term record not only indicates that variation in periwinkle mean shell length and length-frequency distributions are sensitive indicators of the health and recovery of the marsh, but agrees with synoptic studies of vegetation and infaunal communities that full recovery of heavily oiled sites will take longer than 66 months.

Derecho-like event in Bulgaria on 20 July 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gospodinov, Ilian; Dimitrova, Tsvetelina; Bocheva, Lilia; Simeonov, Petio; Dimitrov, Rumen

2015-05-01

In this work we analyze the development of a severe-convective-storm system in northwestern Bulgaria on 20 July 2011 which exhibited derecho-like characteristics. Prior to this event, a derecho had never been documented in Bulgaria. The convective system was associated with a cold front. We present a synoptic-scale analysis of the evolution of the cold front and an overview of the wind and the damage that has occurred in the region with the strongest impact. The convective system consisted of two multi-cell thunderstorms that are analyzed in some detail, based on radar data. The two storms merged and the convective system evolved into a bow-shape reflectivity structure with two rear inflow notches. The analysis of the radar data revealed cloud top heights of 17 km, with the formation of а bounded weak echo region, a maximum radar reflectivity factor of 63 dBZ, and wind speeds above 30 m/s. The field investigation revealed patterns in the damaged crops typical of strong wind gusts.

REGIONAL, BASIN, AND LOCAL FACTORS INFLUENCING THE USE OF SYNOPTIC SURVEY DATA TO ASSESS ANTHROPOGENIC CHANGES IN STREAMBED STABILITY AND FINE SEDIMENT

EPA Science Inventory

To evaluate anthropogenic changes in stream bed stability or texture from synoptic stream surveys, we calculated relative bed stability RBS* as the ratio of the geometric mean bed surface substrate diameter to the estimated bankfull critical diameter. RBS* decreased with increas...

General Framework for Employment. Tableau de Bord. (Synoptic Table). Second Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Commission of the European Communities, Brussels (Belgium). Directorate-General for Employment, Industrial Relations and Social Affairs.

This synoptic table provides an overview and comparison of employment trends and policy measures for each member state of the European Community. Information on the following countries is presented in eight chapters: Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, and United Kingdom. Chapter 0…

North Pacific Cloud Feedbacks Inferred from Synoptic-Scale Dynamic and Thermodynamic Relationships

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, Joel R.; Iacobellis, Sam F.

2005-01-01

This study analyzed daily satellite cloud observations and reanalysis dynamical parameters to determine how mid-tropospheric vertical velocity and advection over the sea surface temperature gradient control midlatitude North Pacific cloud properties. Optically thick clouds with high tops are generated by synoptic ascent, but two different cloud regimes occur under synoptic descent. When vertical motion is downward during summer, extensive stratocumulus cloudiness is associated with near surface northerly wind, while frequent cloudless pixels occur with southerly wind. Examinations of ship-reported cloud types indicates that midlatitude stratocumulus breaks up as the the boundary level decouples when it is advected equatorward over warmer water. Cumulus is prevalent under conditions of synoptic descent and cold advection during winter. Poleward advection of subtropical air over colder water causes stratification of the near-surface layer that inhibits upward mixing of moisture and suppresses cloudiness until a fog eventually forms. Averaging of cloud and radiation data into intervals of 500-hPa vertical velocity and advection over the SST gradient enables the cloud response to changes in temperature and the stratification of the lower troposphere to be investigated independent of the dynamics.

Synoptic maps of heliospheric Thomson scattering brightness from 1974-1985 as observed by the Helios photometers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hick, P.; Jackson, B. V.; Schwenn, R.

1992-01-01

We display the electron Thomson scattering intensity of the inner heliosphere as observed by the zodiacal light photometers on board the Helios spacecraft in the form of synoptic maps. The technique extrapolates the brightness information from each photometer sector near the Sun and constructs a latitude/longitude map at a given solar height. These data are unique in that they give a determination of heliospheric structures out of the ecliptic above the primary region of solar wind acceleration. The spatial extent of bright, co-rotating heliospheric structures is readily observed in the data north and south of the ecliptic plane where the Helios photometer coverage is most complete. Because the technique has been used on the complete Helios data set from 1974 to 1985, we observe the change in our synoptic maps with solar cycle. Bright structures are concentrated near the heliospheric equator at solar minimum, while at solar maximum bright structures are found at far higher heliographic latitudes. A comparison of these maps with other forms of synoptic data are shown for two available intervals.

Role of enhanced synoptic activity and its interaction with intra-seasonal oscillations on the lower extended range prediction skill during 2015 monsoon season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abhilash, S.; Mandal, R.; Dey, A.; Phani, R.; Joseph, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.; De, S.; Agarwal, N. K.; Sahai, A. K.; Devi, S. Sunitha; Rajeevan, M.

2018-01-01

Indian summer monsoon of 2015 was deficient with prominence of short-lived (long-lived) active (break) spells. The real-time extended range forecasts disseminated by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology using an indigenous ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on National Center for Environmental Predictions's climate forecast system could broadly predict these intraseasonal fluctuations at shorter time leads (i.e. up to 10 days), but failed to predict at longer leads (15-20 days). Considering the multi-scale nature of Indian Summer Monsoon system, this particular study aims to examine the inability of the EPS in predicting the active/break episodes at longer leads from the perspective of non-linear scale interaction between the synoptic, intraseasonal and seasonal scale. It is found that the 2015 monsoon season was dominated by synoptic scale disturbances that can hinder the prediction on extended range. Further, the interaction between synoptic scale disturbances and low frequency mode was prominent during the season, which might have contributed to the reduced prediction skill at longer leads.

Mesoscale high-resolution modeling of extreme wind speeds over western water areas of the Russian Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Platonov, Vladimir S.; Kislov, Alexander V.

2016-11-01

A statistical analysis of extreme weather events over coastal areas of the Russian Arctic based on observational data has revealed many interesting features of wind velocity distributions. It has been shown that the extremes contain data belonging to two different statistical populations. Each of them is reliably described by a Weibull distribution. According to the standard terminology, these sets of extremes are named ‘black swans’ and ‘dragons’. The ‘dragons’ are responsible for most extremes, surpassing the ‘black swans’ by 10 - 30 %. Since the data of the global climate model INM-CM4 do not contain ‘dragons’, the wind speed extremes are investigated on the mesoscale using the COSMO-CLM model. The modelling results reveal no differences between the ‘swans’ and ‘dragons’ situations. It could be associated with the poor sample data used. However, according to many case studies and modeling results we assume that it is caused by a rare superposition of large-scale synoptic factors and many local meso- and microscale factors (surface, coastline configuration, etc.). Further studies of extreme wind speeds in the Arctic, such as ‘black swans’ and ‘dragons’, are necessary to focus on non-hydrostatic high-resolution atmospheric modelling using downscaling techniques.

Sediment transport on Cape Sable, Everglades National Park, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zucker, Mark; Boudreau, Carrie

2010-01-01

The Cape Sable peninsula is located on the southwestern tip of the Florida peninsula within Everglades National Park (ENP). Lake Ingraham, the largest lake within Cape Sable, is now connected to the Gulf of Mexico and western Florida Bay by canals built in the early 1920's. Some of these canals breached a natural marl ridge located to the north of Lake Ingraham. These connections altered the landscape of this area allowing for the transport of sediments to and from Lake Ingraham. Saline intrusion into the formerly fresh interior marsh has impacted the local ecology. Earthen dams installed in the 1950's and 1960's in canals that breached the marl ridge have repeatedly failed. Sheet pile dams installed in the early 1990's subsequently failed resulting in the continued alteration of Lake Ingraham and the interior marsh. The Cape Sable Canals Dam Restoration Project, funded by ENP, proposes to restore the two failed dams in Lake Ingraham. The objective of this study was to collect discharge and water quality data over a series of tidal cycles and flow conditions to establish discharge and sediment surrogate relations prior to initiating the Cape Sable Canals Dam Restoration Project. A dry season synoptic sampling event was performed on April 27-30, 2009.

A study of the 21 March 2012 tornadic quasi linear convective system in Catalonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bech, Joan; Arús, Joan; Castán, Salvador; Pineda, Nicolau; Rigo, Tomeu; Montanyà, Joan; van der Velde, Oscar

2015-05-01

This study presents a description of a quasi linear convective system that took place in Catalonia (NE Spain) on 21 March 2012 producing heavy rainfall, moderate lightning activity and a weak tornado in the village of Ivars d'Urgell around 19 UTC after local sunset. A post-event survey indicated EF0 and EF1 damage in houses of the village - roofs and ceilings, broken windows, fences and walls and trees knocked down - along a track approximately 4 km long and about 20 m wide. Doppler radar observations show that the parent thunderstorm that spawned the tornado was one of a series that developed along a convective line that moved from S to N, initiating convective activity in terms of precipitation and lightning in the Mediterranean Sea and moving inland in S Catalonia (Tarragona and Salou coastal areas, producing local flash floods). Convective activity remained several hours with series of thunderstorms developing along the same paths. The synoptic situation was dominated by a high pressure ridge extending from northern Africa to central Europe, with a closed maximum sea level pressure area around 1036 hPa over northern France, southern Germany and Austria. On the other hand a relative low pressure area seen on 850 hPa and upper levels was present over the Iberian Peninsula, favouring a southern maritime flow from the Mediterranean between the forward part of the low pressure area and the high pressure system which blocked the advance of the low to the east. In the study we examine both the synoptic environment and storm scale observations with Doppler radar and total lightning data (cloud to ground and intracloud flashes) that lead to this cool-season severe convective event which is remarkable given the fact that, unlike in this case, most reported tornadoes in the region occur during the warm season (with peaks in August and September) and during daylight hours (6 to 18 UTC).

Synoptic climatological analysis of persistent cold air pools over the Carpathian Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szabóné André, Karolina; Bartholy, Judit; Pongrácz, Rita

2016-04-01

A persistent cold air pool (PCAP) is a winter-time, anticyclone-related weather event over a relatively large basin. During this time the air is colder near the surface than aloft. This inversion near the surface can last even for weeks. As the cold air cools down, relative humidity increases and fog forms. The entire life cycle of a PCAP depends on the large scale circulation pattern. PCAP usually appears when an anticyclone builds up after a cold front passed over the examined basin, and it is usually destructed by a coming strong cold front of another midlatitude cyclone. Moreover, the intensity of the anticyclone affects the intensity of the PCAP. PCAP may result in different hazards for the population: (1) Temperature inversion in the surface layers together with weak wind may lead to severe air pollution causing health problems for many people, especially, elderly and children. (2) The fog and/or smog during chilly weather conditions often results in freezing rain. Both fog and freezing rain can distract transportation and electricity supply. Unfortunately, the numerical weather prediction models have difficulties to predict PCAP formation and destruction. One of the reasons is that PCAP is not defined objectively with a simple formula, which could be easily applied to the numerical output data. However, according to some recommendations from the synoptic literature, the shallow convective potential energy (SCPE) can be used to mathematically describe PCAP. In this study, we used the ERA-Interim reanalysis datasets to examine this very specific weather event (i.e., PCAP) over the Carpathian Basin. The connection between the mean sea level pressure and some PCAP measures (e.g., SCPE, energy deficit, etc.) is evaluated. For instance, we used logistic regression to identify PCAP periods over the Carpathian Basin. Then, further statistical analysis includes the evaluation of the length and intensity of these PCAP periods.

Association of weather and air pollution interactions on daily mortality in 12 Canadian cities.

PubMed

Vanos, J K; Cakmak, S; Kalkstein, L S; Yagouti, Abderrahmane

It has been well established that both meteorological attributes and air pollution concentrations affect human health outcomes. We examined all cause nonaccident mortality relationships for 28 years (1981-2008) in relation to air pollution and synoptic weather type (encompassing air mass) data in 12 Canadian cities. This study first determines the likelihood of summertime extreme air pollution events within weather types using spatial synoptic classification. Second, it examines the modifying effect of weather types on the relative risk of mortality (RR) due to daily concentrations of air pollution (nitrogen dioxide, ozone, sulfur dioxide, and particulate matter <2.5 μm). We assess both single- and two-pollutant interactions to determine dependent and independent pollutant effects using the relatively new time series technique of distributed lag nonlinear modeling (DLNM). Results display dry tropical (DT) and moist tropical plus (MT+) weathers to result in a fourfold and twofold increased likelihood, respectively, of an extreme pollution event (top 5 % of pollution concentrations throughout the 28 years) occurring. We also demonstrate statistically significant effects of single-pollutant exposure on mortality ( p  < 0.05) to be dependent on summer weather type, where stronger results occur in dry moderate (fair weather) and DT or MT+ weather types. The overall average single-effect RR increases due to pollutant exposure within DT and MT+ weather types are 14.9 and 11.9 %, respectively. Adjusted exposures (two-way pollutant effect estimates) generally results in decreased RR estimates, indicating that the pollutants are not independent. Adjusting for ozone significantly lowers 67 % of the single-pollutant RR estimates and reduces model variability, which demonstrates that ozone significantly controls a portion of the mortality signal from the model. Our findings demonstrate the mortality risks of air pollution exposure to differ by weather type, with increased accuracy obtained when accounting for interactive effects through adjustment for dependent pollutants using a DLNM.

Development and Evaluation of an Integrated Hydrological Modeling Framework for Monitoring and Understanding Floods and Droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Z. L.; Wu, W. Y.; Lin, P.; Maidment, D. R.

2017-12-01

Extreme water events such as catastrophic floods and severe droughts have increased in recent decades. Mitigating the risk to lives, food security, infrastructure, energy supplies, as well as numerous other industries posed by these extreme events requires informed decision-making and planning based on sound science. We are developing a global water modeling capability by building models that will provide total operational water predictions (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, groundwater, channel flow, inundation, snow) at unprecedented spatial resolutions and updated frequencies. Toward this goal, this talk presents an integrated global hydrological modeling framework that takes advantage of gridded meteorological forcing, land surface modeling, channeled flow modeling, ground observations, and satellite remote sensing. Launched in August 2016, the National Water Model successfully incorporates weather forecasts to predict river flows for more than 2.7 million rivers across the continental United States, which transfers a "synoptic weather map" to a "synoptic river flow map" operationally. In this study, we apply a similar framework to a high-resolution global river network database, which is developed from a hierarchical Dominant River Tracing (DRT) algorithm, and runoff output from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) to a vector-based river routing model (The Routing Application for Parallel Computation of Discharge, RAPID) to produce river flows from 2001 to 2016 using Message Passing Interface (MPI) on Texas Advanced Computer Center's Stampede system. In this simulation, global river discharges for more than 177,000 rivers are computed every 30 minutes. The modeling framework's performance is evaluated with various observations including river flows at more than 400 gauge stations globally. Overall, the model exhibits a reasonably good performance in simulating the averaged patterns of terrestrial water storage, evapotranspiration and runoff. The system is appropriate for monitoring and studying floods and droughts. Directions for future research will be outlined and discussed.

A contrast between nocturnal flow regimes: Observations and modeling simulations of katabatic intrusions in the Laramie Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juliano, Timothy W.

Katabatic winds commonly occur in mountainous regions under statically stable conditions when a sufficient deficit exists in the net radiation budget. Observations of these stable boundary layer (SBL) downslope flows have extended back to the 1930s. Their interactions with other SBL processes, including cold air pools (CAPs) and mountain waves, are quite complex, however, and have only more recently been deeply investigated. The University of Wyoming (UW) wind tower (WT) and flux tower (WT), situated in the Laramie Valley, were utilized in examining a dataset spanning from 14 December 2011 to 12 September 2013. A set of criteria were developed to determine katabatic intrusion events, and establish a climatology of these events, at the WT. The 21-22 December 2012 nighttime period was then studied in detail using data from the aforementioned towers in addition to weather stations throughout the Laramie Valley and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Both observations and modeling results indicated a competition between two strongly contrasting flow regimes: synoptic and katabatic. The synoptic regime was characterized by strong, southwesterly winds, warm temperatures, and turbulent flow, while the katabatic regime featured weaker, southeasterly winds, cooler temperatures, and intermittently turbulent flow. Sonic and propeller anemometers on the WT elucidated the chaotic transition between the regimes. At the WT, it was found that between regimes the wind speed decreased by up to 60%, wind direction often shifted over 120°, and potential temperature usually decreased more than 2°C. The katabatic wind depth was postulated to be variable in time and space, with its head sloping towards the trailing CAP. Topographically generated mountain waves and local terrain forcing are suspected to play an integral role in the development and evolution of the katabatic wind in the Laramie Valley. Results from this research yield promising insight into the intricate relationships between various SBL processes in complex terrain.

Feature-oriented regional modeling and simulations in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangopadhyay, Avijit; Robinson, Allan R.; Haley, Patrick J.; Leslie, Wayne G.; Lozano, Carlos J.; Bisagni, James J.; Yu, Zhitao

2003-03-01

The multiscale synoptic circulation system in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank (GOMGB) region is presented using a feature-oriented approach. Prevalent synoptic circulation structures, or 'features', are identified from previous observational studies. These features include the buoyancy-driven Maine Coastal Current, the Georges Bank anticyclonic frontal circulation system, the basin-scale cyclonic gyres (Jordan, Georges and Wilkinson), the deep inflow through the Northeast Channel (NEC), the shallow outflow via the Great South Channel (GSC), and the shelf-slope front (SSF). Their synoptic water-mass ( T- S) structures are characterized and parameterized in a generalized formulation to develop temperature-salinity feature models. A synoptic initialization scheme for feature-oriented regional modeling and simulation (FORMS) of the circulation in the coastal-to-deep region of the GOMGB system is then developed. First, the temperature and salinity feature-model profiles are placed on a regional circulation template and then objectively analyzed with appropriate background climatology in the coastal region. Furthermore, these fields are melded with adjacent deep-ocean regional circulation (Gulf Stream Meander and Ring region) along and across the SSF. These initialization fields are then used for dynamical simulations via the primitive equation model. Simulation results are analyzed to calibrate the multiparameter feature-oriented modeling system. Experimental short-term synoptic simulations are presented for multiple resolutions in different regions with and without atmospheric forcing. The presented 'generic and portable' methodology demonstrates the potential of applying similar FORMS in many other regions of the Global Coastal Ocean.

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crane, Robert G.; Hewitson, Bruce

1990-01-01

Model simulations of global climate change are seen as an essential component of any program aimed at understanding human impact on the global environment. A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs), however, is their inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global scale change, and it is these regional scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human/environmental response. This research is directed toward the development of a methodology for the validation of the synoptic scale climatology of GCMs. This is developed with regard to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM Model 2, with the specific objective of using the synoptic circulation form a doubles CO2 simulation to estimate regional climate change over North America, south of Hudson Bay. This progress report is specifically concerned with validating the synoptic climatology of the GISS GCM, and developing the transfer function to derive grid-point temperatures from the synoptic circulation. Principal Components Analysis is used to characterize the primary modes of the spatial and temporal variability in the observed and simulated climate, and the model validation is based on correlations between component loadings, and power spectral analysis of the component scores. The results show that the high resolution GISS model does an excellent job of simulating the synoptic circulation over the U.S., and that grid-point temperatures can be predicted with reasonable accuracy from the circulation patterns.

Solar Demon: near real-time solar eruptive event detection on SDO/AIA images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kraaikamp, Emil; Verbeeck, Cis

Solar flares, dimmings and EUV waves have been observed routinely in extreme ultra-violet (EUV) images of the Sun since 1996. These events are closely associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and therefore provide useful information for early space weather alerts. The Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA) generates such a massive dataset that it becomes impossible to find most of these eruptive events manually. Solar Demon is a set of automatic detection algorithms that attempts to solve this problem by providing both near real-time warnings of eruptive events and a catalog of characterized events. Solar Demon has been designed to detect and characterize dimmings, EUV waves, as well as solar flares in near real-time on SDO/AIA data. The detection modules are running continuously at the Royal Observatory of Belgium on both quick-look data and synoptic science data. The output of Solar Demon can be accessed in near real-time on the Solar Demon website, and includes images, movies, light curves, and the numerical evolution of several parameters. Solar Demon is the result of collaboration between the FP7 projects AFFECTS and COMESEP. Flare detections of Solar Demon are integrated into the COMESEP alert system. Here we present the Solar Demon detection algorithms and their output. We will focus on the algorithm and its operational implementation. Examples of interesting flare, dimming and EUV wave events, and general statistics of the detections made so far during solar cycle 24 will be presented as well.

Influence of synoptic condition and holiday effects on VOCs and ozone production in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhengning; Huang, Xin; Nie, Wei; Chi, Xuguang; Xu, Zheng; Zheng, Longfei; Sun, Peng; Ding, Aijun

2017-11-01

Both anthropogenic emission and synoptic conditions play important roles in ozone (O3) formation and accumulation. In order to understand the influence of synoptic condition and holiday effects on ozone production in the Yangtze River Delta region, China, concentrations of speciated volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and O3 as well as other relevant trace gases were simultaneously measured at the Station for Observing Regional Processes of the Earth System (SORPES) in Nanjing around the National Day holidays of China in 2014, which featured substantial change of emissions and dominated by typical anti-cyclones. Different groups of VOC species and their chemical reactivities were comprehensively analyzed. We observed clear diurnal variations of short alkenes during the measurement period, considerable amount of short alkenes were observed during night (more than 10 ppb) while almost no alkenes were measured during daytime, which might be attributed to different chemical processes. The obvious enhancement of the VOC tracers during the National Day holidays (Oct. 1st-Oct. 7th) indicated that the holiday effect strongly influenced the distribution of VOC profile and chemical reactivity in the atmosphere. At the same time, two meso-scale anticyclone processes were also observed during the measurement period. The synoptic condition contributed to the accumulation of VOCs and other precursors, which consequently impacted the ozone production in this region. The integrated influence of synoptic and holiday effects was also analyzed with an Observation Based Model (OBM) based on simplified MCM (Master Chemical Mechanism) chemical mechanism. The calculated relative increment reactivity (RIR) of different VOC groups revealed that during the holidays, this region was in VOC-limited regime and the variation of RIR shows a close linkage to the development and elimination of anti-cyclones, indicating an in-negligible contribution of synoptic effect toward ozone production in this region.

Upscale Impact of Mesoscale Disturbances of Tropical Convection on Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Q.; Majda, A.

2017-12-01

Tropical convection associated with convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) is typically organized by an eastward-moving synoptic-scale convective envelope with numerous embedded westward-moving mesoscale disturbances. It is of central importance to assess upscale impact of mesoscale disturbances on CCKWs as mesoscale disturbances propagate at various tilt angles and speeds. Here a simple multi-scale model is used to capture this multi-scale structure, where mesoscale fluctuations are directly driven by mesoscale heating and synoptic-scale circulation is forced by mean heating and eddy transfer of momentum and temperature. The two-dimensional version of the multi-scale model drives the synoptic-scale circulation, successfully reproduces key features of flow fields with a front-to-rear tilt and compares well with results from a cloud resolving model. In the scenario with an elevated upright mean heating, the tilted vertical structure of synoptic-scale circulation is still induced by the upscale impact of mesoscale disturbances. In a faster propagation scenario, the upscale impact becomes less important, while the synoptic-scale circulation response to mean heating dominates. In the unrealistic scenario with upward/westward tilted mesoscale heating, positive potential temperature anomalies are induced in the leading edge, which will suppress shallow convection in a moist environment. In its three-dimensional version, results show that upscale impact of mesoscale disturbances that propagate at tilt angles (110o 250o) induces negative lower-tropospheric potential temperature anomalies in the leading edge, providing favorable conditions for shallow convection in a moist environment, while the remaining tilt angle cases have opposite effects. Even in the presence of upright mean heating, the front-to-rear tilted synoptic-scale circulation can still be induced by eddy terms at tilt angles (120o 240o). In the case with fast propagating mesoscale heating, positive potential temperature anomalies are induced in the lower troposphere, suppressing convection in a moist environment. This simple model also reproduces convective momentum transport and CCKWs in agreement with results from a recent cloud resolving simulation.

Synoptic Drivers of Precipitation in the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, L.; Hudson, S.; Graham, R.; Renwick, J. A.

2017-12-01

Precipitation in the Arctic has been shown to be increasing in recent decades, from both observational and modelling studies, with largest trends seen in autumn and winter. This trend is attributed to a combination of the warming atmosphere and reduced sea ice extent. The seasonality of precipitation in the Arctic is important as it largely determines whether the precipitation falls as snow or rain. This study assesses the spatial and temporal variability of the synoptic drivers of precipitation in the Atlantic (European) sector of the Arctic. This region of the Arctic is of particular interest as it has the largest inter-annual variability in sea ice extent and is the primary pathway for moisture transport into the Arctic from lower latitudes. This study uses the ECMWF ERA-I reanalysis total precipitation to compare to long-term precipitation observations from Ny Ålesund, Svalbard to show that the reanalysis captures the synoptic variability of precipitation well and that most precipitation in this region is synoptically driven. The annual variability of precipitation in the Atlantic Arctic shows strong regionality. In the Svalbard and Barents Sea region, most of the annual total precipitation occurs during autumn and winter (Oct-Mar) (>60% of annual total), while the high-Arctic (> 80N) and Kara Sea receives most of the annual precipitation ( 60% of annual total) during summer (July-Sept). Using a synoptic classification developed for this region, this study shows that winter precipitation is driven by winter cyclone occurrence, with strong correlations to the AO and NAO indices. High precipitation over Svalbard is also strongly correlated with the Scandinavian blocking pattern, which produces a southerly flow in the Greenland Sea/Svalbard area. An increasing occurrence of these synoptic patterns are seen for winter months (Nov and Jan), which may explain much of the observed winter increase in precipitation.

Principal locations of major-ion, trace-element, nitrate, and Escherichia coli loading to Emigration Creek, Salt Lake County, Utah, October 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kimball, Briant A.; Runkel, Robert L.; Walton-Day, Katherine

2008-01-01

Housing development and recreational activity in Emigration Canyon have increased substantially since 1980, perhaps causing an observed decrease in water quality of this northern Utah stream located near Salt Lake City. To identify reaches of the stream that contribute to water-quality degradation, a tracer-injection and synoptic-sampling study was done to quantify mass loading of major ions, trace elements, nitrate, and Escherichia coli (E. coli) to the stream. The resulting mass-loading profiles for major ions and trace elements indicate both geologic and anthropogenic inputs to the stream, principally from tributary and spring inflows to the stream at Brigham Fork, Burr Fork, Wagner Spring, Emigration Tunnel Spring, Blacksmith Hollow, and Killyon Canyon. The pattern of nitrate loading does not correspond to the major-ion and trace-element loading patterns. Nitrate levels in the stream did not exceed water-quality standards at the time of synoptic sampling. The majority of nitrate mass loading can be considered related to anthropogenic input, based on the field settings and trends in stable isotope ratios of nitrogen. The pattern of E. coli loading does not correspond to the major-ion, trace-element, or nitrate loading patterns. The majority of E. coli loading was related to anthropogenic sources based on field setting, but a considerable part of the loading also comes from possible animal sources in Killyon Canyon, in Perkins Flat, and in Rotary Park. In this late summer sampling, E. coli concentrations only exceeded water-quality standards in limited sections of the study reach. The mass-loading approach used in this study provides a means to design future studies and to evaluate the loading on a catchment scale.

Trans boundary transport of pollutants by atmospheric mineral dust.

PubMed

Erel, Yigal; Dayan, Uri; Rabi, Reut; Rudich, Yinon; Stein, Mordechai

2006-05-01

The transport of anthropogenic pollution by desert dust in the Eastern Mediterranean region was studied by analyzing major and trace element composition, organic species, and Pb isotope ratios in suspended dust samples collected in Jerusalem, Israel. Dust storms in this region are associated with four distinct synoptic conditions (Red Sea Trough (RS), Eastern High (EH), Sharav Cyclone (SC), and Cold Depression (Cyprus low, CD)) that carry dust mostly from North African (SC, CD, EH) and Arabian and Syrian (RS, EH) deserts. Substantial contamination of dust particles by Pb, Cu, Zn, and Ni is observed, while other elements (Na, Ca, Mg, Mn, Sr, Rb, REE, U, and Th) display natural concentrations. Sequential extraction of the abovementioned elements from the dust samples shows that the carbonate and sorbed fractions contain most of the pollution, yet the Al-silicate fraction is also contaminated, implying that soils and sediments in the source terrains of the dust are already polluted. We identified the pollutant sources by using Pb isotopes. It appears that before the beginning of the dust storm, the pollutants in the collected samples are dominated by local sources but with the arrival of dust from North Africa, the proportion of foreign pollutants increases. Organic pollutants exhibit behavior similar and complementary to that of the inorganic tracers, attesting to the importance of anthropogenic-pollutant addition en route of the dust from its remote sources. Pollution of suspended dust is observed under all synoptic conditions, yet it appears that easterly winds carry higher proportions of local pollution and westerly winds carry pollution emitted in the Cairo basin. Therefore, pollution transport by mineral dust should be accounted for in environmental models and in assessing the health-related effects of mineral dust.

Cinnamon gulch revisited: Another look at separating natural and mining-impacted contributions to instream metal load

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runkel, Robert L.; Verplanck, Philip; Kimball, Briant; Walton-Day, Katie

2018-01-01

Baseline, premining data for streams draining abandoned mine lands is virtually non existent, and indirect methods for estimating premining conditions are needed to establish realistic, cost effective cleanup goals. One such indirect method is the proximal analog approach, in which premining conditions are estimated using data from nearby mineralized areas that are unaffected by mining. In this paper, we combine the proximal analog approach with a quantitative mass balance framework using data from a spatially-detailed synoptic sampling campaign. The combined approach is applied to Cinnamon Gulch, a headwater stream with numerous draining adits. Synoptic sampling results indicate that three of the top five metal sources are affected by mining activities, and stream segments draining these sources account for a large percentage of overall metal loading within the study reach. These initial calculations overestimate the effects of mining, as the affected stream segments were likely acidic and metal rich prior to mining. Premining loads and concentrations were therefore determined through a replacement approach in which the chemistry of each mining-affected stream segment is revised based on proximal analog concentrations. The revised loading profiles indicate that 15–17% of the Al, Cd, Cu, Mn, Ni, and Zn loads are attributable to mining, whereas the mining contribution for Pb is 40%. Premining concentrations of Al, Cd, Cu, Mn, and Zn are estimated to be in excess of aquatic life standards over the length of the study reach.

Application of capillary gas chromatography mass spectrometry/computer techniques to synoptic survey of organic material in bed sediment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steinheimer, T.R.; Pereira, W.E.; Johnson, S.M.

1981-01-01

A bed sediment sample taken from an area impacted by heavy industrial activity was analyzed for organic compounds of environmental significance. Extraction was effected on a Soxhlet apparatus using a freeze-dried sample. The Soxhlet extract was fractionated by silica gel micro-column adsorption chromatography. Separation and identification of the organic compounds was accomplished by capillary gas chromatography/mass spectrometry techniques. More than 50 compounds were identified; these include saturated hydrocarbons, olefins, aromatic hydrocarbons, alkylated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and oxygenated compounds such as aldehydes and ketones. The role of bed sediments as a source or sink for organic pollutants is discussed. ?? 1981.

Where on Earth can we find Mars? Characterization of an Aeolian Analogue in Northwestern Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Favaro, E. A.; Hugenholtz, C.; Barchyn, T.

2017-12-01

The Puna Plateau of northwestern Argentina is as a promising analogue for Martian aeolian processes owing to its altitude, low atmospheric pressure, aridity, and widespread granular and bedrock aeolian features. The study was conducted in and surrounding the area known as the Campo de Piedra Pómez - a prominent expanse of wind-carved ignimbrite in Argentina's Catamarca Province. To interpret the evolution of this unique laboratory, which is limited by its isolated location and dearth of in situ measurements, we investigated contemporary aeolian sediment transport through a combination of modeled meteorological data, satellite imagery, field measurements, and sediment traps. Our objective is to utilize modeled meteorological data, satellite imagery, and field measurements and samples to characterize the aeolian environment here to base analogue studies. Satellite imagery from Terra MODIS, GeoEye, and Ikonos indicate recent large-scale aeolian sediment transport events and migration of gravel in the region. A prominent, region-wide sediment transport event on 14 August 2015 coincided with synoptic-scale pressure patterns indicating a strong Zonda (Foehn) winds. Sediment traps and marbles provide additional evidence of wind-driven transport of sand and gravel. Yet, despite the body of evidence for sediment transport on the Puna Plateau, modeled wind data from the European Center for Midrange Weather Forecasting suggest wind rarely attains the speeds necessary to initiate sediment transport. This disconnect is reminiscent of the Martian Saltation Paradox which suggested winds on Mars were incapable of mobilizing sediment, despite widespread evidence from rover, lander, and satellite observations. This raises questions about: (i) the suitability of modeled wind data for characterizing aeolian processes on both planets, and (ii) the possibility that most geomorphic work is conducted in extreme, but infrequent events in this region (possibly analogous to Mars). We suggest future research should attempt to reconcile disparities between sediment transport observations and modeled wind data.

Floods and windstorms in the Czech Republic during the past millennium: synthesis of documentary and instrumental data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brázdil, R.; Dobrovolný, P.; Valášek, H.; Kotyza, O.

2009-09-01

Floods and windstorms are the most disastrous natural events occurring on the territory of the Czech Republic. Study of their frequency, severity, seasonality, causes and impacts in the long-term scale is important for saving of human lives and diminishing of material losses. Information related to these phenomena from the period of instrumental hydrological and meteorological measurements can be significantly extended by using documentary evidence going back to the 12th century. Basic types of documentary evidence with information about floods and windstorms are presented and methodological problems of elaboration of such evidence are discussed. Synoptic causes of floods and windstorms in the Czech Republic are demonstrated. Series of these phenomena created for the instrumental and pre-instrumental period are finally used for compilation of synthesis series, namely for floods of the main rivers in the Czech Republic (the Vltava, the Ohře, the Elbe, the Odra and the Morava) and for windstorms divided according to the type of event, extent and character of damage. Moreover, the most disastrous events ("floods and windstorms of the century”) are particularly analyzed. Finally, floods and windstorms are discussed in the context of past long-term climate variability.

Large-scale atmospheric conditions associated with heavy rainfall episodes in Southeast Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, Kellen Carla; Satyamurty, Prakki; Fernández, Júlio Pablo Reyes

2010-07-01

Heavy rainfall events in austral summer are responsible for almost all the natural disasters in Southeast Brazil. They are mostly associated with two types of atmospheric perturbations: Cold Front (53%) and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (47%). The important question of what synoptic characteristics distinguish a heavy rainfall event (HRE) from a normal rainfall event (NRE) is addressed in this study. Here, the evolutions of such characteristics are identified through the anomalies with respect to climatology of the composite fields of atmospheric variables. The anomalies associated with HRE are significantly more intense than those associated with NRE in all fundamental atmospheric variables such as outgoing long-wave radiation, sea-level pressure, 500-hPa geopotential, lower and upper tropospheric winds. The moisture flux convergence over Southeast Brazil in the HRE composites is 60% larger than in the NRE composites. The energetics calculations for the HRE that occurred in the beginning of February 1988 strongly suggest that the barotropic instability played an important role in the intensification of the perturbation. These results, especially the intensities of the wind, pressure anomalies, and the moisture convergence are useful for the meteorologists of the Southeast Brazil for forecasting heavy precipitation.

The Chennai extreme rainfall event in 2015: The Bay of Bengal connection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyaj, Alugula; Ashok, Karumuri; Ghosh, Subimal; Devanand, Anjana; Dandu, Govardhan

2018-04-01

Southeast India experienced a heavy rainfall during 30 Nov-2 Dec 2015. Particularly, the Chennai city, the fourth major metropolitan city in India with a population of 5 million, experienced extreme flooding and causalities. Using various observed/reanalysed datasets, we find that the concurrent southern Bay of Bengal (BoB) sea surface temperatures (SST) were anomalously warm. Our analysis shows that BoB sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) are indeed positively, and significantly, correlated with the northeastern Indian monsoonal rainfall during this season. Our sensitivity experiments carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 25 km resolution suggest that, while the strong concurrent El Niño conditions contributed to about 21.5% of the intensity of the extreme Chennai rainfall through its signals in the local SST mentioned above, the warming trend in BoB SST also contributed equally to the extremity of the event. Further, the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) impacts on the intensity of the synoptic events in the BoB during the northeast monsoon are manifested largely through the local SST in the BoB as compared through its signature in the atmospheric circulations over the BoB.

Effect of Impingement Angle on landfalling Atmospheric River precipitation efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehran, A.; Cao, Q.; Wang, K.; Cannon, F.; Ralph, M.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) along the western coast of North America in wintertime are associated with heavy winter precipitation and most flood events. ARs are narrow, elongated, synoptic jets of water vapor that transport moisture from the eastern Pacific to North Pacific coast of North America. Furthermore, the lowest levels of the atmosphere account for almost 75% of the water vapor transport through these rivers. The combination of high integrated water vapor in AR events and strong upslope winds results in heavy orographic precipitation in regions where the narrow AR jets make landfall. We analyzed 19 years (1997 2015) of landfalling ARs over a transect along the U.S. West Coast consisting of two river basins from coastal Washington and Northern California (Chehalis basin and the Russian River basin) to highlight the impingement angle impact on precipitation rainout efficiency. We have studied water vapor data from Climate Forecast System reanalysis (CFSR) on AR dates to calculate the impingement angle and associated total amount of water vapor. Rainout efficiency is defined and calculated as the ratio of total amount of water vapor that has precipitated over each basin. Our results show that extreme AR events which impingement angle is orthogonal to basin exposure, have greater rainout efficiency.

Seasonality of snow accumulation at Mount Wrangell, Alaska, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanamori, Syosaku; Benson, Carl S.; Truffer, Martin; Matoba, Sumito; Solie, Daniel J.; Shiraiwa, Takayuki

We recorded the burial times of temperature sensors mounted on a specially constructed tower to determine snow accumulation during individual storms in the summit caldera of Mount Wrangell, Alaska, USA, (62°N, 144°W; 4100 m a.s.l.) during the accumulation year June 2005 to June 2006. The experiment showed most of the accumulation occurred in episodic large storms, and half of the total accumulation was delivered in late summer. The timing of individual events correlated well with storms recorded upwind, at Cordova, the closest Pacific coastal weather station (200 km south-southeast), although the magnitude of events showed only poor correlation. Hence, snow accumulation at Mount Wrangell appears to be a reflection of synoptic-scale regional weather systems. The accumulation at Mount Wrangell's summit (>2.5 m w.e.) exceeded the precipitation at Cordova. Although the direct relationship between accumulation of individual storms at the summit of Mount Wrangell and precipitation events at Cordova may be unique in the region, it is useful for interpreting ice cores obtained on Mount Wrangell. This is especially the case here because the high rate of accumulation allows high time resolution within the core.

Physical Patterns Associated with 27 April 2011 Tornado Outbreak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Fernanda; Salem, Thomas

2012-02-01

The National Weather Service office in Memphis, Tennessee has aimed their efforts to improve severe tornado forecasting. Everything is not known about tornadogenesis, but one thing is: tornadoes tend to form within supercell thunderstorms. Hence, 27 April 2011 and 25 May 2011 were days when a Tornado Outbreak was expected to arise. Although 22 tornadoes struck the region on 27 April 2011, only 1 impacted the area on 25 May 2011. In order to understand both events, comparisons of their physical features were made. These parameters were studied using the Weather Event Simulator system and the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction database. This research concentrated on the Surface Frontal Analysis, NAM40 700mb Dew-Points, NAM80 250mb Wind Speed and NAM20 500mb Vorticity images as well as 0-6 km Shear, MUCAPE and VGP mesoscale patterns. As result of this research a Dry-Line ahead of a Cold Front, Dew-points 5C and higher, and high Vorticity values^ were synoptic patterns that influenced to the formation of supercell tornadoes. Finally, MUCAPE and VGP favored the possibility of tornadoes occurrence on 25 May 2011, but shear was the factor that made 27 April 2011 a day for a Tornado Outbreak weather event.

New Self-lensing Models of the Small Magellanic Cloud: Can Gravitational Microlensing Detect Extragalactic Exoplanets?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mróz, Przemek; Poleski, Radosław

2018-04-01

We use three-dimensional distributions of classical Cepheids and RR Lyrae stars in the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) to model the stellar density distribution of a young and old stellar population in that galaxy. We use these models to estimate the microlensing self-lensing optical depth to the SMC, which is in excellent agreement with the observations. Our models are consistent with the total stellar mass of the SMC of about 1.0× {10}9 {M}ȯ under the assumption that all microlensing events toward this galaxy are caused by self-lensing. We also calculate the expected event rates and estimate that future large-scale surveys, like the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), will be able to detect up to a few dozen microlensing events in the SMC annually. If the planet frequency in the SMC is similar to that in the Milky Way, a few extragalactic planets can be detected over the course of the LSST survey, provided significant changes in the SMC observing strategy are devised. A relatively small investment of LSST resources can give us a unique probe of the population of extragalactic exoplanets.

Assessment of the Long Term Trends in Extreme Heat Events and the Associated Health Impacts in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, J.; Rennie, J.; Kunkel, K.; Herring, S.; Cullen, H. M.

2017-12-01

Land surface air temperature products have been essential for monitoring the evolution of the climate system. Before a temperature dataset is included in such reports, it is important that non-climatic influences be removed or changed so the dataset is considered homogenous. These inhomogeneities include changes in station location, instrumentation and observing practices. While many homogenized products exist on the monthly time scale, few daily products exist, due to the complication of removing breakpoints that are truly inhomogeneous rather than solely by chance (for example, sharp changes due to synoptic conditions). Recently, a sub monthly homogenized dataset has been developed using data and software provided by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Homogeneous daily data are useful for identification and attribution of extreme heat events over a period of time. Projections of increasing temperatures are expected to result in corresponding increases in the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme heat events. It is also established that extreme heat events can have significant public health impacts, including short-term increases in mortality and morbidity. In addition, it can exacerbate chronic health conditions in vulnerable populations, including renal and cardiovascular issues. To understand how heat events impact a specific population, it will be important to connect observations on the duration and intensity of extreme heat events with health impacts data including insurance claims and hospital admissions data. This presentation will explain the methodology to identify extreme heat events, provide a climatology of heat event onset, length and severity, and explore a case study of an anomalous heat event with available health data.

Ground Based Synoptic Instrumentation for Solar Observations (Postprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-05

vector spectropolarimetry in FeI 630.15-630.25 nm wavelength range, and line-of-sight (circular) polarimetry in Fe I 6301.5-6302.5 Å, and Ca II 8542 Å...Stokes vector polarimetry . Opt. Eng. 38, 1402-1408, 1999. [22] C. U. Keller, J. W. Harvey, M. S. Giampapa, “SOLIS: an innovative suite of synoptic

Characteristics of the Areas in which Fast Current Oil Control is Needed

DTIC Science & Technology

1973-11-01

Synoptic Meteorlogical Observations (1970) U. S. Department of Commerce, Local Cllmatologlcal Data (1972) 51 Q po «» o ov in .Hi «M iH H H <N S 4...Oceanographic Office, Washington, D. C. 24. Summary of Synoptic Meteorlogical Observations; U.S. Navy Weather Command, Washington, P C. 1970 - Volumes 1

The Application of Synoptic Weather Forecasting Rules to Selected Weather Situations in the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kohler, Fred E.

The document describes the use of weather maps and data in teaching introductory college courses in synoptic meteorology. Students examine weather changes at three-hour intervals from data obtained from the "Monthly Summary of Local Climatological Data." Weather variables in the local summary include sky cover, air temperature, dew point, relative…

Algal and Water-Quality Data for the Yellowstone River and Tributaries, Montana and Wyoming, 1999-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, David A.

2009-01-01

Streams of the Yellowstone River Basin in Montana and Wyoming were sampled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Algal communities were sampled in 1999 in conjunction with other ecological sampling and in 2000 during synoptic sampling. Water-quality measurements related to the algal sampling included light attenuation and dissolved-oxygen concentrations. Sites were sampled on the main-stem Yellowstone River, major tributaries such as the Clarks Fork Yellowstone River and the Bighorn River, and selected minor tributaries. Some of the data collected, such as the phytoplankton chlorophyll-a data, were referenced or summarized in previous U.S. Geological Survey reports but were not previously published in tabular form, and therefore are presented in this report, prepared in cooperation with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality. Data presented in this report include chlorophyll-a concentrations in phytoplankton and periphyton samples, as well as light attenuation and dissolved-oxygen production data from 1999-2000.

On the episodic nature of derecho-producing convective systems in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashley, Walker S.; Mote, Thomas L.; Bentley, Mace L.

2005-11-01

Convectively generated windstorms occur over broad temporal and spatial scales; however, one of the larger-scale and most intense of these windstorms has been given the name derecho. This study illustrates the tendency for derecho-producing mesoscale convective systems to group together across the United States - forming a derecho series. The derecho series is recognized as any succession of derechos that develop within a similar synoptic environment with no more than 72 h separating individual events. A derecho dataset for the period 1994-2003 was assembled to investigate the groupings of these extremely damaging convective wind events. Results indicate that over 62% of the derechos in the dataset were members of a derecho series. On average, nearly six series affected the United States annually. Most derecho series consisted of two or three events; though, 14 series during the period of record contained four or more events. Two separate series involved nine derechos within a period of nine days. Analyses reveal that derecho series largely frequent regions of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and the south-central Great Plains during May, June, and July. Results suggest that once a derecho occurred during May, June, or July, there was a 58% chance that this event was the first of a series of two or more, and about a 46% chance that this was the first of a derecho series consisting of three or more events. The derecho series climatology reveals that forecasters in regions frequented by derechos should be prepared for the probable regeneration of a derecho-producing convective system after an initial event occurs. Copyright

Assessing variability in the impacts of heat on health outcomes in New York City over time, season, and heat-wave duration.

PubMed

Sheridan, Scott C; Lin, Shao

2014-12-01

While the impacts of heat upon mortality and morbidity have been frequently studied, few studies have examined the relationship between heat, morbidity, and mortality across the same events. This research assesses the relationship between heat events and morbidity and mortality in New York City for the period 1991-2004. Heat events are defined based on oppressive weather types as determined by the Spatial Synoptic Classification. Morbidity data include hospitalizations for heat-related, respiratory, and cardiovascular causes; mortality data include these subsets as well as all-cause totals. Distributed-lag models assess the relationship between heat and health outcome for a cumulative 15-day period following exposure. To further refine analysis, subset analyses assess the differences between early- and late-season events, shorter and longer events, and earlier and later years. The strongest heat-health relationships occur with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and heat-related hospital admissions. The impacts of heat are greater during longer heat events and during the middle of summer, when increased mortality is still statistically significant after accounting for mortality displacement. Early-season heat waves have increases in mortality that appear to be largely short-term displacement. The impacts of heat on mortality have decreased over time. Heat-related hospital admissions have increased during this time, especially during the earlier days of heat events. Given the trends observed, it suggests that a greater awareness of heat hazards may have led to increased short-term hospitalizations with a commensurate decrease in mortality.

Long-term variability of dust events in Iceland (1949-2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dagsson-Waldhauserova, P.; Arnalds, O.; Olafsson, H.

2014-12-01

The long-term frequency of atmospheric dust observations was investigated for the southern part of Iceland and interpreted together with earlier results obtained from northeastern (NE) Iceland (Dagsson-Waldhauserova et al., 2013). In total, over 34 dust days per year on average occurred in Iceland based on conventionally used synoptic codes for dust observations. However, frequent volcanic eruptions, with the re-suspension of volcanic materials and dust haze, increased the number of dust events fourfold (135 dust days annually). The position of the Icelandic Low determined whether dust events occurred in the NE (16.4 dust days annually) or in the southern (S) part of Iceland (about 18 dust days annually). The decade with the most frequent dust days in S Iceland was the 1960s, but the 2000s in NE Iceland. A total of 32 severe dust storms (visibility < 500 m) were observed in Iceland with the highest frequency of events during the 2000s in S Iceland. The Arctic dust events (NE Iceland) were typically warm, occurring during summer/autumn (May-September) and during mild southwesterly winds, while the subarctic dust events (S Iceland) were mainly cold, occurring during winter/spring (March-May) and during strong northeasterly winds. About half of the dust events in S Iceland occurred in winter or at sub-zero temperatures. A good correlation was found between particulate matter (PM10) concentrations and visibility during dust observations at the stations Vík and Stórhöfði. This study shows that Iceland is among the dustiest areas of the world and that dust is emitted year-round.

Differences in Meteorological Conditions between Days with Persistent and Non-Persistent Pollution in Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, Ting; Wu, Renguang; Huang, Gang

2018-02-01

We compared the regional synoptic patterns and local meteorological conditions during persistent and non-persistent pollution events in Beijing using US NCEP-Department of Energy reanalysis outputs and observations from meteorological stations. The analysis focused on the impacts of high-frequency (period < 90 days) variations in meteorological conditions on persistent pollution events (those lasting for at least 3 days). Persistent pollution events tended to occur in association with slow-moving weather systems producing stagnant weather conditions, whereas rapidly moving weather systems caused a dramatic change in the local weather conditions so that the pollution event was short-lived. Although Beijing was under the influence of anomalous southerly winds in all four seasons during pollution events, notable differences were identified in the regional patterns of sea-level pressure and local anomalies in relative humidity among persistent pollution events in different seasons. A region of lower pressure was present to the north of Beijing in spring, fall, and winter, whereas regions of lower and higher pressures were observed northwest and southeast of Beijing, respectively, in summer. The relative humidity near Beijing was higher in fall and winter, but lower in spring and summer. These differences may explain the seasonal dependence of the relationship between air pollution and the local meteorological variables. Our analysis showed that the temperature inversion in the lower troposphere played an important part in the occurrence of air pollution under stagnant weather conditions. Some results from this study are based on a limited number of events and thus require validation using more data.

Real Time Data in Synoptic Meteolorolgy and Weather Forecasting Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campetella, C. M.; Gassmann, M. I.

2006-05-01

The Department of Atmospheric and Oceanographic Sciences (DAOS) of the University of Buenos Aires is the university component of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Meteorological Training Center (RMTC) in Region III. In January, 2002 our RMTC was invited to take part in the MeteoForum pilot project that was developed jointly by the COMET and Unidata programs of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). MeteoForum comprises an international network of WMO Region III and IV RMTCs working collaboratively with universities to enhance their roles of training and education through information technologies and multilingual collections of resources. The DAOS undertook to improve its infrastructure to be able to access hydro-meteorological information in real-time as part of the Unidata community. In 2003, the DAOS received some Unidata equipment grant funds to update its computer infrastructure, improving communications with an operationally quicker system. Departmental networking was upgraded to 100 Mb/s capability while, at the same time, new computation resources were purchased that increased the number of computers available for student use from 5 to 8. This upgrade has also resulted in more and better computers being available for student and faculty research. A video projection system, purchased with funds provided by the COMET program as part of Meteoforum, is used in classrooms with Internet connections for a variety of educational activities. The upgraded computing and networking facilities have contributed to the development of educational modules using real-time hydro-meteorological and other digital data for the classroom. With the aid of Unidata personal, the Unidata Local Data Management (LDM) software was installed and configured to request and process real-time feeds of global observational data; global numerical model output from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) models; and all imager channels from GOES-12 from the Unidata Internet Data Distribution (IDD) system. The data now being routinely received have impacted not only the meteorological education in the DAOS, but also have been instructive in techniques for Internet-based data sharing for our students. The DAOS has made a substantial effort to provide undergraduate students with experience in manipulating, displaying, and analyzing weather data in real-time through interactive displays of data using visualization tools provided by Unidata. Two of the specific courses whose curriculum have been improved are synoptic meteorology and a laboratory on weather prediction. Some laboratory materials have been developed to reflect current data as applied to the lecture material. This talk will briefly describe the data compiled and the fields used to analyze an intense cyclogenesis event that occurred over the La Plata River in August, 2005. This event was used as a case study for discussions in the Synoptic Weather Laboratory degree course of Atmospheric Sciences Licentiate.

The spectrum of progressive derecho formation environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guastini, Corey T.

Progressive derechos are severe mesoscale convective systems that often form east of the Rocky Mountains during the warm season (May--August) and cause, by definition, straight-line wind damage along paths upwards of 400 km long. This study develops a subjective, seven-category classification scheme that spans the spectrum of progressive derecho formation environments from those dominated by robust upper-level ridges to those characterized by vigorous upper-level troughs. A climatology of 256 progressive derecho events is created for 1996--2013 and is categorized according to the developed classification scheme. Derecho initiation-relative composites are constructed for each of the seven groups using 0.5° Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data to document the environmental characteristics unique to each group as well as those shared among them. Finally, two in-depth case studies and five cursory case studies provide examples of the seven categories and reveal important nuances in mesoscale dynamic and thermodynamic structure inherent to all derecho cases. Results of the climatology show progressive derecho activity increases from 1 May through 1 July before decreasing again through the end of August and follows a northward trend in latitude from 1 May through 1 August before shifting slightly southward through the end of the warm season. Upslope flow in the vicinity of the Rocky Mountains initiates 28 percent of progressive derechos, upper-level troughs initiate 20 percent, 47 percent form in benign synoptic environments, and 5 percent are unclassifiable. Composite results show all progressive derecho initiation environments are marked by a long axis of instability caused by the overlap of high atmospheric moisture content and steep midlevel lapse rates, but the relative positions and strengths of upper-level troughs and ridges are crucial in determining how the instability axis develops and what its orientation in space will be. Case studies reveal instability axes forming in benign synoptic environments are generally zonally oriented and mainly the result of convergence of low-level moisture, whereas stronger synoptic-scale forcing forms meridionally oriented instability axes through the northward advection of Gulf moisture. The length and magnitude of these instability axes largely determines the duration and severity of a given progressive derecho.

Improving UK Air Quality Modelling Through Exploitation of Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, Richard; Chipperfield, Martyn; Savage, Nick

2014-05-01

In this work the applicability of satellite observations to evaluate the operational UK Met Office Air Quality in the Unified Model (AQUM) have been investigated. The main focus involved the AQUM validation against satellite observations, investigation of satellite retrieval error types and of synoptic meteorological-atmospheric chemistry relationships simulated/seen by the AQUM/satellite. The AQUM is a short range forecast model of atmospheric chemistry and aerosols up to 5 days. It has been designed to predict potentially hazardous air pollution events, e.g. high concentrations of surface ozone. The AQUM has only been validated against UK atmospheric chemistry recording surface stations. Therefore, satellite observations of atmospheric chemistry have been used to further validate the model, taking advantage of better satellite spatial coverage. Observations of summer and winter 2006 tropospheric column NO2 from both OMI and SCIAMACHY show that the AQUM generally compares well with the observations. However, in northern England positive biases (AQUM - satellite) suggest that the AQUM overestimates column NO2; we present results of sensitivity experiments on UK emissions datasets suspected to be the cause. In winter, the AQUM over predicts background column NO2 when compared to both satellite instruments. We hypothesise that the cause is the AQUM winter night-time chemistry, where the NO2 sinks are not substantially defined. Satellite data are prone to errors/uncertainty such as random, systematic and smoothing errors. We have investigated these error types and developed an algorithm to calculate and reduce the random error component of DOAS NO2 retrievals, giving more robust seasonal satellite composites. The Lamb Weather Types (LWT), an objective method of classifying the daily synoptic weather over the UK, were used to create composite satellite maps of column NO2 under different synoptic conditions. Under cyclonic conditions, satellite observed UK column NO2 is reduced as the indicative south-westerly flow transports it away from the UK over the North Sea. However, under anticyclonic conditions, the satellite shows that the stable conditions enhance the build-up of column NO2 over source regions. The influence of wind direction on column NO2 can also be seen from space with transport leeward of the source regions.

Winter QPF Sensitivities to Snow Parameterizations and Comparisons to NASA CloudSat Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molthan, Andrew; Haynes, John M.; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Lapenta, William M.

2009-01-01

Steady increases in computing power have allowed for numerical weather prediction models to be initialized and run at high spatial resolution, permitting a transition from larger scale parameterizations of the effects of clouds and precipitation to the simulation of specific microphysical processes and hydrometeor size distributions. Although still relatively coarse in comparison to true cloud resolving models, these high resolution forecasts (on the order of 4 km or less) have demonstrated value in the prediction of severe storm mode and evolution and are being explored for use in winter weather events . Several single-moment bulk water microphysics schemes are available within the latest release of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model suite, including the NASA Goddard Cumulus Ensemble, which incorporate some assumptions in the size distribution of a small number of hydrometeor classes in order to predict their evolution, advection and precipitation within the forecast domain. Although many of these schemes produce similar forecasts of events on the synoptic scale, there are often significant details regarding precipitation and cloud cover, as well as the distribution of water mass among the constituent hydrometeor classes. Unfortunately, validating data for cloud resolving model simulations are sparse. Field campaigns require in-cloud measurements of hydrometeors from aircraft in coordination with extensive and coincident ground based measurements. Radar remote sensing is utilized to detect the spatial coverage and structure of precipitation. Here, two radar systems characterize the structure of winter precipitation for comparison to equivalent features within a forecast model: a 3 GHz, Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) based in Omaha, Nebraska, and the 94 GHz NASA CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar, a spaceborne instrument and member of the afternoon or "A-Train" of polar orbiting satellites tasked with cataloguing global cloud characteristics. Each system provides a unique perspective. The WSR-88D operates in a surveillance mode, sampling cloud volumes of Rayleigh scatterers where reflectivity is proportional to the sixth moment of the size distribution of equivalent spheres. The CloudSat radar provides enhanced sensitivity to smaller cloud ice crystals aloft, as well as consistent vertical profiles along each orbit. However, CloudSat reflectivity signatures are complicated somewhat by resonant Mie scattering effects and significant attenuation in the presence of cloud or rain water. Here, both radar systems are applied to a case of light to moderate snowfall within the warm frontal zone of a cold season, synoptic scale storm. Radars allow for an evaluation of the accuracy of a single-moment scheme in replicating precipitation structures, based on the bulk statistical properties of precipitation as suggested by reflectivity signatures.

Surface pressure maps from scatterometer data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, R. A.; Levy, Gad

1991-01-01

The ability to determine surface pressure fields from satellite scatterometer data was shown by Brown and Levy (1986). The surface winds are used to calculate the gradient winds above the planetary boundary layer, and these are directly related to the pressure gradients. There are corrections for variable stratification, variable surface roughness, horizontal inhomogeneity, humidity and baroclinity. The Seasat-A Satellite Scatterometer (SASS) data have been used in a systematic study of 50 synoptic weather events (regions of approximately 1000 X 1000 km). The preliminary statistics of agreement with national weather service surface pressure maps are calculated. The resulting surface pressure maps can be used together with SASS winds and Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) water vapor and liquid water analyses to provide good front and storm system analyses.

Observation and numerical simulation of a convective initiation during COHMEX

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Song, J. Aaron; Kaplan, Michael L.

1991-01-01

Under a synoptically undisturbed condition, a dual-peak convective lifecycle was observed with the COoperative Huntsville Meteorological EXperiment (COHMEX) observational network over a 24-hour period. The lifecycle included a multicell storm, which lasted about 6 hours, produced a peak rainrate exceeding 100 mm/hr, and initiated a downstream mesoscale convective system. The 24-hour accumulated rainfall of this event was the largest during the entire COHMEX. The downstream mesoscale convective system, unfortunately, was difficult to investigate quantitatively due to the lack of mesoscale observations. The dataset collected near the time of the multicell storm evolution, including its initiation, was one of the best datasets of COHMEX. In this study, the initiation of this multicell storm is chosen as the target of the numerical simulations.

On the Origins of the Recent Greenland Melt in the US 2012 Heat Wave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neff, W. D.; Shupe, M.; Ralph, F. M.; Compo, G.; Turner, D. D.

2012-12-01

Recent reports had the majority of the Greenland ice sheet surface melting on 8-12 July 2012 (http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/greenland-melt.html). Even at Summit Station, the temperature reached 1Co above freezing. A companion paper (Miller et al., AGU) describes the cloud and radiation properties at Summit during this episode that affected boundary layer exchange processes. Here we describe the likely synoptic processes, coupling mid-latitudes with the polar regions, at work leading to this unusual event. These include back trajectories that originated ten days earlier in the US Midwest where 8oC surface temperature anomalies were present on 1 July and then exited over the Atlantic Ocean gaining substantial moisture in the process. Over the ocean, a thin filament of moisture transport formed at the boundary of a trough of low pressure (extending from the high Arctic) with a subtropical ridge. Such filaments are often referred to as atmospheric rivers (ARs) and account for a substantial portion of the northward transport of moisture from the tropics and extratropics (Zhu and Newell 1998 Mon. Wea. Rev.). Examination of SSMIS imagery from this event shows the evolution of this AR over several days and oriented along the path of the back-trajectory from Summit Station on 11 July. In its final stage, the AR impinged and spread along the southern coast of Greenland. Moisture content in this AR was exceptionally high for this latitude, exceeding 6 cm of vertically integrated water vapor. This event was also characterized by a distortion of the polar vortex corresponding to negative 2-sigma anomaly in the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Such melting episodes are rare over Greenland with ice-core evidence suggesting a return period averaging about 150 years with the last such episode reportedly in 1889 (http://dartmouthigert.wordpress.com/2012/07/21/new-summit-melt-layer/). Using the 20th Century Reanalysis (Compo et al., 2012), we have examined synoptic patterns present in June and July 1889 during positive anomalies in surface temperatures over this two-month period. During one such event on 30 July 1889, a strong trough-ridge pattern had set up, potentially bringing warm southerly flow from the eastern US to Greenland. One of the unique features of the most recent event was prolonged drought and high temperatures over North America during the spring and summer of 2012 - an implication being that having a persistent source of unusually warm air over North America, coupled with a relatively rare, and short-lived negative anomaly in the AO created almost perfect conditions for the warming of Greenland above the freezing point. This is one example of how an extreme event that appears to be part of the general picture of a warming Arctic may in fact have its origins in the mid-latitudes.

Elucidating the relationship between aerosol concentration and summertime boundary layer structure in central China.

PubMed

Liu, Lin; Guo, Jianping; Miao, Yucong; Liu, Lin; Li, Jian; Chen, Dandan; He, Jing; Cui, Chunguang

2018-06-11

Wuhan, a megacity in central China, suffers from frequent aerosol pollution and is accompanied by meteorological factors at both synoptic and local scales. Partly due to the lack of appropriate observations of planetary boundary layer (PBL), the associations between synoptic conditions, PBL, and pollution there are not yet fully understood. Thus, systematic analyses were conducted using the fine-resolution soundings, surface meteorological measurements, and aerosol observations in Wuhan during summer for the period 2013-2016, in combination with T-mode principal component analysis and simulations of backward trajectory. The results showed that the variations of boundary layer height (BLH) not only modulated the diurnal variation of PM 2.5 concentration in Wuhan, but also the daily pollution level. Five different synoptic patterns during summer in Wuhan were identified from reanalysis geopotential height fields. Among these synoptic patterns, two types characterized by northeasterly prevailing winds, were found to be associated with heavy pollution in Wuhan. Driven by the northeasterly winds, the polluted air mass from the heavily polluted regions could be easily transported to Wuhan, such as North China Plain and Yangtze River Delta. Such regional transports of pollutants must be partly responsible for the aerosol pollution in Wuhan. In addition, these two synoptic patterns were also featured by the relatively high cloud cover and low boundary layer height in Wuhan, which would favor the occurrence of pollution there. Overall, this study has important implications for understanding the important roles of meteorological factors in modulating aerosol pollution in central China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Synoptic-scale circulation patterns during summer derived from tree rings in mid-latitude Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seim, Andrea; Schultz, Johannes A.; Leland, Caroline; Davi, Nicole; Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa; Liang, Eryuan; Wang, Xiaochun; Beck, Christoph; Linderholm, Hans W.; Pederson, Neil

2017-09-01

Understanding past and recent climate and atmospheric circulation variability is vital for regions that are affected by climate extremes. In mid-latitude Asia, however, the synoptic climatology is complex and not yet fully understood. The aim of this study was to investigate dominant synoptic-scale circulation patterns during the summer season using a multi-species tree-ring width (TRW) network comprising 78 sites from mid-latitude Asia. For each TRW chronology, we calculated an atmospheric circulation tree-ring index (ACTI), based on 1000 hPa geopotential height data, to directly link tree growth to 13 summertime weather types and their associated local climate conditions for the period 1871-1993. Using the ACTI, three groups of similarly responding tree-ring sites can be associated with distinct large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns: 1. growth of drought sensitive trees is positively affected by a cyclone over northern Russia; 2. temperature sensitive trees show positive associations to a cyclone over northwestern Russia and an anticyclone over Mongolia; 3. trees at two high elevation sites show positive relations to a zonal cyclone extending from mid-latitude Eurasia to the West Pacific. The identified synoptic-scale circulation patterns showed spatiotemporal variability in their intensity and position, causing temporally varying climate conditions in mid-latitude Asia. Our results highlight that for regions with less pronounced atmospheric action centers during summer such as the occurrence of large-scale cyclones and anticyclones, synoptic-scale circulation patterns can be extracted and linked to the Northern Hemisphere circulation system. Thus, we provide a new and solid envelope for climate studies covering the past to the future.

Synoptic backgrounds of the widest wildfire in Mazandaran Province of Iran during December 11-13, 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghavidel, Yousef; Farajzadeh, Manuchehr; Khaleghi Babaei, Meysam

2016-12-01

In this paper, atmospheric origins of the widest wildfire in Mazandaran province on 11-13th of December, 2010 have been investigated. Data sets of this research include maximum daily temperature (MDT), minimum relative humidity (MRH) of terrestrial stations, dynamic and thermodynamic features of the atmosphere, Gridded data sets of Self-Calibrated Palmer drought severity index (SCPDSI) and global drought dataset standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and data related to the time and the extent of the wildfire. The ``environmental to circulation'' approach to synoptic classification has been used to investigate relationships between local-scale surface environment (wildfire) and the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation conditions. Results of study show that during the 3-day wide wildfire, the average of MDT and the MRH was significantly different from the long-term average. During the aforementioned wildfire, the average of MDT in Mazandaran province was 26 °C and the average of MRH was reported 35 %. The long-term average of MDT and the MRH in Mazandaran province during 3 days of wildfire was 12.3 °C and 68 %, respectively. Therefore, the MDT has a positive abnormality of 13.7 °C and the MRH has a negative abnormality of 33 %. In addition, monthly SCPDSI and SPEI indicated severe drought conditions at December 2010 in Mazandaran. Analysis of SLP maps shows that during the 3-day fire, a pressure center of 1110 hPa on Persian Gulf and a very low-pressure center on Turkey and Asia Minor were created. Normally, this event has caused the pressure gradient and warm and dry air advection from Arabian Peninsula to higher longitudes, particularly Mazandaran province. Consequently, the MDT increased and the wildfire of Mazandaran forest took place in an area of 220 ha. Zonal wind maps signify the weakness of Zonal wind and meridional wind maps show the southern direction of meridional wind flow during the wide wildfire. Moreover, Omega maps prove that during the aforementioned wildfire, the Omega flow has been positive and the warm air flow has subsidence. This made the infusion of warm air and increased the MDT substantially and consequently the wildfire occurrence was facilitated. Temperature advection maps showed that in the level of 1000 hPa, the warm air blowing source is originated from Arabian Peninsula, in the level of 850 hPa from the Arabian Peninsula and Iraq and in the level of 700 and 500 hPa from Ethiopia, Arabian Peninsula and Iraq. The Hybrid-Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model outputs confirm the synoptic mechanisms for the discussed wildfire.

Complex mixtures of dissolved pesticides show potential aquatic toxicity in a synoptic study of Midwestern U.S. streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nowell, Lisa H.; Moran, Patrick W.; Schmidt, Travis S.; Norman, Julia E.; Nakagaki, Naomi; Shoda, Megan E.; Mahler, Barbara J.; Van Metre, Peter C.; Stone, Wesley W.; Sandstrom, Mark W.; Hladik, Michelle L.

2018-01-01

Aquatic organisms in streams are exposed to pesticide mixtures that vary in composition over time in response to changes in flow conditions, pesticide inputs to the stream, and pesticide fate and degradation within the stream. To characterize mixtures of dissolved-phase pesticides and degradates in Midwestern streams, a synoptic study was conducted at 100 streams during May–August 2013. In weekly water samples, 94 pesticides and 89 degradates were detected, with a median of 25 compounds detected per sample and 54 detected per site. In a screening-level assessment using aquatic-life benchmarks and the Pesticide Toxicity Index (PTI), potential effects on fish were unlikely in most streams. For invertebrates, potential chronic toxicity was predicted in 53% of streams, punctuated in 12% of streams by acutely toxic exposures. For aquatic plants, acute but likely reversible effects on biomass were predicted in 75% of streams, with potential longer-term effects on plant communities in 9% of streams. Relatively few pesticides in water—atrazine, acetochlor, metolachlor, imidacloprid, fipronil, organophosphate insecticides, and carbendazim—were predicted to be major contributors to potential toxicity. Agricultural streams had the highest potential for effects on plants, especially in May–June, corresponding to high spring-flush herbicide concentrations. Urban streams had higher detection frequencies and concentrations of insecticides and most fungicides than in agricultural streams, and higher potential for invertebrate toxicity, which peaked during July–August. Toxicity-screening predictions for invertebrates were supported by quantile regressions showing significant associations for the Benthic Invertebrate-PTI and imidacloprid concentrations with invertebrate community metrics for MSQA streams, and by mesocosm toxicity testing with imidacloprid showing effects on invertebrate communities at environmentally relevant concentrations. This study documents the most complex pesticide mixtures yet reported in discrete water samples in the U.S. and, using multiple lines of evidence, predicts that pesticides were potentially toxic to nontarget aquatic life in about half of the sampled streams.

Atmospheric blocking as a traffic jam in the jet stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, N.; Huang, S. Y.

2017-12-01

It is demonstrated using the ERA-Interim product that synoptic to intraseasonal variabilities of extratropical circulation in the boreal storm track regions are strongly affected by the zonal convergence of the column-integrated eastward flux of local wave activity (LWA). In particular, from the multi-year daily samples of LWA fluxes, we find that the wintertime zonal LWA flux in the jet exit regions tends to maximize for an intermediate value of column-averaged LWA. This is because an increasing LWA decelerates the zonal flow, eventually weakening the eastward advection of LWA. From theory we argue that large wave events on the decreasing side of the flux curve with increasing LWA cannot be maintained as a stable steady state. Consistent with this argument, observed states corresponding to that side of flux curve often exhibit local wave breaking and blocking events. A close parallelism exists for the traffic flow problem, in which the traffic flux (traffic density times traffic speed) is often observed to maximize for an intermediate value of traffic density. This is because the traffic speed is controlled not only by the imposed speed limit but also by the traffic density — an increasingly heavy traffic slows down the flow naturally and eventually decreases the flux. Once the flux starts to decrease with an increasing traffic density, a traffic jam kicks in suddenly (Lighthill and Whitham 1955, Richards 1956). The above idea is demonstrated by a simple conceptual model based on the equivalent barotropic PV contour design (Nakamura and Huang 2017, JAS), which predicts a threshold of blocking onset. The idea also suggests that the LWA that gives the `flux capacity,' i.e., the maximum LWA flux at a given location, is a useful predictor of local wave breaking/block formation.

An A-train climatology of extratropical cyclone clouds and precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naud, C. M.; Booth, J.; Del Genio, A. D.; van den Heever, S. C.; Posselt, D. J.

2016-12-01

It is demonstrated using the ERA-Interim product that synoptic to intraseasonal variabilities of extratropical circulation in the boreal storm track regions are strongly affected by the zonal convergence of the column-integrated eastward flux of local wave activity (LWA). In particular, from the multi-year daily samples of LWA fluxes, we find that the wintertime zonal LWA flux in the jet exit regions tends to maximize for an intermediate value of column-averaged LWA. This is because an increasing LWA decelerates the zonal flow, eventually weakening the eastward advection of LWA. From theory we argue that large wave events on the decreasing side of the flux curve with increasing LWA cannot be maintained as a stable steady state. Consistent with this argument, observed states corresponding to that side of flux curve often exhibit local wave breaking and blocking events. A close parallelism exists for the traffic flow problem, in which the traffic flux (traffic density times traffic speed) is often observed to maximize for an intermediate value of traffic density. This is because the traffic speed is controlled not only by the imposed speed limit but also by the traffic density — an increasingly heavy traffic slows down the flow naturally and eventually decreases the flux. Once the flux starts to decrease with an increasing traffic density, a traffic jam kicks in suddenly (Lighthill and Whitham 1955, Richards 1956). The above idea is demonstrated by a simple conceptual model based on the equivalent barotropic PV contour design (Nakamura and Huang 2017, JAS), which predicts a threshold of blocking onset. The idea also suggests that the LWA that gives the `flux capacity,' i.e., the maximum LWA flux at a given location, is a useful predictor of local wave breaking/block formation.

Evaluating the Performance of Single and Double Moment Microphysics Schemes During a Synoptic-Scale Snowfall Event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molthan, Andrew L.

2011-01-01

Increases in computing resources have allowed for the utilization of high-resolution weather forecast models capable of resolving cloud microphysical and precipitation processes among varying numbers of hydrometeor categories. Several microphysics schemes are currently available within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, ranging from single-moment predictions of precipitation content to double-moment predictions that include a prediction of particle number concentrations. Each scheme incorporates several assumptions related to the size distribution, shape, and fall speed relationships of ice crystals in order to simulate cold-cloud processes and resulting precipitation. Field campaign data offer a means of evaluating the assumptions present within each scheme. The Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO Validation Project (C3VP) represented collaboration among the CloudSat, CALIPSO, and NASA Global Precipitation Measurement mission communities, to observe cold season precipitation processes relevant to forecast model evaluation and the eventual development of satellite retrievals of cloud properties and precipitation rates. During the C3VP campaign, widespread snowfall occurred on 22 January 2007, sampled by aircraft and surface instrumentation that provided particle size distributions, ice water content, and fall speed estimations along with traditional surface measurements of temperature and precipitation. In this study, four single-moment and two double-moment microphysics schemes were utilized to generate hypothetical WRF forecasts of the event, with C3VP data used in evaluation of their varying assumptions. Schemes that incorporate flexibility in size distribution parameters and density assumptions are shown to be preferable to fixed constants, and that a double-moment representation of the snow category may be beneficial when representing the effects of aggregation. These results may guide forecast centers in optimal configurations of their forecast models for winter weather and identify best practices present within these various schemes.

Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather

Treesearch

Mark J. Schroeder; Monte Glovinsky; Virgil F. Hendricks; Frank C. Hood; Melvin K. Hull; Henry L. Jacobson; Robert Kirkpatrick; Daniel W. Krueger; Lester P. Mallory; Albert G. Oeztel; Robert H. Reese; Leo A. Sergius; Charles E. Syverson

1964-01-01

Recognizing that weather is an important factor in the spread of both urban and wildland fires, a study was made of the synoptic weather patterns and types which produce strong winds, low relative humidities, high temperatures, and lack of rainfall--the conditions conducive to rapid fire spread. Such historic fires as the San Francisco fire of 1906, the Berkeley fire...

Evidence for gap flows in the Birch Creek Valley, Idaho

Treesearch

D. Finn; B. Reese; B. Butler; N. Wagenbrenner; K. L. Clawson; J. Rich; E. Russell; Z. Gao; H. Liu

2016-01-01

A field study was conducted of flows in the Birch Creek Valley in eastern Idaho. There is a distinct topographic constriction in the Birch Creek Valley that creates two subbasins: an upper and lower valley. The data were classified into one of three groups based on synoptic influence (weak/absent, high wind speeds, and other evidence of synoptic influence). Gap flows...

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crane, Robert G.; Hewitson, B. C.

1991-01-01

A new diagnostic tool is developed for examining relationships between the synoptic scale circulation and regional temperature distributions in GCMs. The 4 x 5 deg GISS GCM is shown to produce accurate simulations of the variance in the synoptic scale sea level pressure distribution over the U.S. An analysis of the observational data set from the National Meteorological Center (NMC) also shows a strong relationship between the synoptic circulation and grid point temperatures. This relationship is demonstrated by deriving transfer functions between a time-series of circulation parameters and temperatures at individual grid points. The circulation parameters are derived using rotated principal components analysis, and the temperature transfer functions are based on multivariate polynomial regression models. The application of these transfer functions to the GCM circulation indicates that there is considerable spatial bias present in the GCM temperature distributions. The transfer functions are also used to indicate the possible changes in U.S. regional temperatures that could result from differences in synoptic scale circulation between a 1XCO2 and a 2xCO2 climate, using a doubled CO2 version of the same GISS GCM.

Interannual Variations in Synoptic-Scale Disturbances over the Western North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Xingyan; Lu, Riyu; Chen, Guanghua; Wu, Liang

2018-05-01

The present study investigates the interannual variation of June-November synoptic disturbance activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) and its relationship with large-scale circulation for the period 1958-2014. Two leading modes of eddy kinetic energy for the disturbance variability over the WNP are obtained by EOF analysis, characterized by anomalous eddy kinetic energy over the subtropical WNP and around the Philippines, respectively. These modes explain a large portion of the interannual variance of synoptic disturbance activity over the WNP. Both are associated with lower-level cyclonic anomalies, but with different locations: over the subtropical WNP for the first mode and over the South China Sea for the second mode. Considering the impact of ENSO on synoptic disturbance activity over the WNP, we repeat the analyses after removing the effect of ENSO, which is simply defined as the components linearly regressed onto the Niño3.4 index, and find similar results, suggesting that the leading modes and their relationships with large-scale circulation exist without SST effects. Further analyses suggest that the meridional shear of zonal winds caused by cyclonic anomalies is crucial for maintaining the leading modes through barotropic conversion.

Tracking groundwater discharge to a large river using tracers and geophysics.

PubMed

Harrington, Glenn A; Gardner, W Payton; Munday, Tim J

2014-01-01

Few studies have investigated large reaches of rivers in which multiple sources of groundwater are responsible for maintaining baseflow. This paper builds upon previous work undertaken along the Fitzroy River, one of the largest perennial river systems in north-western Australia. Synoptic regional-scale sampling of both river water and groundwater for a suite of environmental tracers ((4) He, (87) Sr/(86) Sr, (222) Rn and major ions), and subsequent modeling of tracer behavior in the river, has enabled definition and quantification of groundwater input from at least three different sources. We show unambiguous evidence of both shallow "local" groundwater, possibly recharged to alluvial aquifers beneath the adjacent floodplain during recent high-flow events, and old "regional" groundwater introduced via artesian flow from deep confined aquifers. We also invoke hyporheic exchange and either bank return flow or parafluvial flow to account for background (222) Rn activities and anomalous chloride trends along river reaches where there is no evidence of the local or regional groundwater inputs. Vertical conductivity sections acquired through an airborne electromagnetic (AEM) survey provide insights to the architecture of the aquifers associated with these sources and general groundwater quality characteristics. These data indicate fresh groundwater from about 300 m below ground preferentially discharging to the river, at locations consistent with those inferred from tracer data. The results demonstrate how sampling rivers for multiple environmental tracers of different types-including stable and radioactive isotopes, dissolved gases and major ions-can significantly improve conceptualization of groundwater-surface water interaction processes, particularly when coupled with geophysical techniques in complex hydrogeological settings. © 2013, National Ground Water Association.

Recent changes in the oxidized to reduced nitrogen ratio in atmospheric precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurzyca, Iwona; Frankowski, Marcin

2017-10-01

In this study, the characteristics of precipitation in terms of various nitrogen forms (NO3-, NO2-, NH4+, Norganic, Ntotal) is presented. The samples were collected in the areas of different anthropogenic pressure (urban area vs. ecologically protected woodland area, ∼30 km distant from each other; Wielkopolska region, Poland). Based on the Nox and Nred emission profiles (Nox/Nred ratio), temporal and spatial comparison was carried out. For both sites, during a decade of observation, more than 60% of samples had higher contribution of N-NH4+ than N-NO3-, the amount of N-NO2- was negligible, and organic nitrogen amounted to 30% of total nitrogen content which varied up to 16 mg/l. The precipitation events w ith high concentration of nitrogen species were investigated in terms of possible local and remote sources of nitrogen (synoptic meteorology), to indicate the areas which can act as potential sources of N-compounds. Based on the chemometric analysis, it was found that Nred implies Nox and vice versa, due to interactions between them in the atmosphere. Taking into account the analysis of precipitation occurring simultaneously in both locations (about 50% of all rainfall episodes), it was observed that such factor as anthropogenic pressure differentiates but does not determine the chemical composition of precipitation in the investigated areas (urban vs. woodland area; distance of ∼30 km). Thermodynamics of the atmosphere had a significant impact on concentrations of N-NO3- and N-NH4+ in precipitation, as well as the circulation of air masses and remote N sources responsible for transboundary inflow of pollutants.

Feature analysis and primary causes of pre-flood season "cumulative effect" of torrential rain over South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Qu-cheng; Wang, Qi-guang; Qiao, Shao-bo; Feng, Guo-lin

2018-01-01

When persistent rainfall occurs frequently over South China, meso-scale and micro-scale synoptic systems persist and expand in space and time and eventually form meso-scale and long-scale weather processes. The accumulation of multiple torrential rain processes is defined as a "cumulative effect" of torrential rain (CETR) event. In this paper, daily reanalysis datasets collected by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP-DOE) during 1979-2014 are used to study the anomalous features and causes of heavy CETR events over South China. The results show that there is a significant difference in the spatial distribution of the heavy CETR events. Based on the center position of the CETR, the middle region displayed middle-region-heavy CETR events while the western region displayed west-region-heavy CETR events. El Niño events in the previous period (December, January, February, March (DJFM)) are major extra-forcing factors of middle-region-heavy CETR events, which is beneficial for the continuous, anomalous Philippine Sea anticyclone and strengthens the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), extending it more westward than normal. The primary water vapor source for precipitation in middle-region-heavy CETR events is the Tropical Western Pacific Ocean. The major extra-forcing factor of a west-region-heavy CETR is the negative anomaly in the southern Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) during the previous period (DJFM). This factor is beneficial for strengthening the cross-equatorial flow and westerly winds from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea (SCS) and early SCS summer monsoon onset. The primary water vapor source of precipitation in the west-region-heavy CETR is the southern TIO.

On-line Machine Learning and Event Detection in Petascale Data Streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, David R.; Wagstaff, K. L.

2012-01-01

Traditional statistical data mining involves off-line analysis in which all data are available and equally accessible. However, petascale datasets have challenged this premise since it is often impossible to store, let alone analyze, the relevant observations. This has led the machine learning community to investigate adaptive processing chains where data mining is a continuous process. Here pattern recognition permits triage and followup decisions at multiple stages of a processing pipeline. Such techniques can also benefit new astronomical instruments such as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) and Square Kilometre Array (SKA) that will generate petascale data volumes. We summarize some machine learning perspectives on real time data mining, with representative cases of astronomical applications and event detection in high volume datastreams. The first is a "supervised classification" approach currently used for transient event detection at the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA). It injects known signals of interest - faint single-pulse anomalies - and tunes system parameters to recover these events. This permits meaningful event detection for diverse instrument configurations and observing conditions whose noise cannot be well-characterized in advance. Second, "semi-supervised novelty detection" finds novel events based on statistical deviations from previous patterns. It detects outlier signals of interest while considering known examples of false alarm interference. Applied to data from the Parkes pulsar survey, the approach identifies anomalous "peryton" phenomena that do not match previous event models. Finally, we consider online light curve classification that can trigger adaptive followup measurements of candidate events. Classifier performance analyses suggest optimal survey strategies, and permit principled followup decisions from incomplete data. These examples trace a broad range of algorithm possibilities available for online astronomical data mining. This talk describes research performed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology. Copyright 2012, All Rights Reserved. U.S. Government support acknowledged.

The covariance of air quality conditions in six cities in Southern Germany - The role of meteorology.

PubMed

Dimitriou, Konstantinos; Kassomenos, Pavlos

2017-01-01

This paper analyzed air quality in six cities in Southern Germany (Ulm, Augsburg, Konstanz, Freiburg, Stuttgart and Munich), in conjunction with the prevailing synoptic conditions. Air quality was estimated through the calculation of a daily Air Stress Index (ASI) constituted by five independent components, each one expressing the contribution of one of the five main pollutants (PM 10 , O 3 , SO 2 , NO 2 and CO) to the total air stress. As it was deduced from ASI components, PM 10 from combustion sources and photochemically produced tropospheric O 3 are the most hazardous pollutants at the studied sites, throughout cold and warm periods respectively, yet PM 10 contribute substantially to the overall air stress during both seasons. The influence of anticyclonic high pressure systems, leading to atmospheric stagnation, was associated with increased ASI values, mainly due to the entrapment of PM 10 . Moderate air stress was generally estimated in all cities however a cleaner atmosphere was detected principally in Freiburg when North Europe was dominated by low pressure systems. Daily events of notably escalated ASI values were further analyzed with backward air mass trajectories. Throughout cold period, ASI episodes were commonly related to eastern airflows carrying exogenous PM 10 originated from eastern continental Europe. During warm period, ASI episodes were connected to the arrival of regionally circulated air parcels reflecting lack of dispersion and accumulation of pollutants in accordance with the synoptic analysis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of climate and synoptic fluctuations on dust storm activity over the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Namdari, Soodabeh; Karimi, Neamat; Sorooshian, Armin; Mohammadi, GholamHasan; Sehatkashani, Saviz

2018-01-01

Dust events in the Middle East are becoming more frequent and intense in recent years with impacts on air quality, climate, and public health. In this study, the relationship between dust, as determined from Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and meteorological parameters (precipitation, temperature, pressure and wind field) are examined using monthly data from 2000 to 2015 for desert areas in two areas, Iraq-Syria and Saudi Arabia. Bivariate regression analysis between monthly temperature data and AOD reveals a high correlation for Saudi Arabia (R = 0.72) and Iraq-Syria (R = 0.64). Although AOD and precipitation are correlated in February, March and April, the relationship is more pronounced on annual timescales. The opposite is true for the relationship between temperature and AOD, which is evident more clearly on monthly time scales, with the highest temperatures and AOD typically between August and September. Precipitation data suggest that long-term reductions in rainfall promoted lower soil moisture and vegetative cover, leading to more intense dust emissions. Superimposed on the latter effect are more short term variations in temperature exacerbating the influence on the dust storm genesis in hot periods such as the late warm season of the year. Case study analysis of March 2012 and March 2014 shows the impact of synoptic systems on dust emissions and transport in the study region. Dust storm activity was more intense in March 2012 as compared to March 2014 due to enhanced atmospheric turbulence intensifying surface winds.

Exploiting Synoptic-Scale Climate Processes to Develop Nonstationary, Probabilistic Flood Hazard Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, C. M.; Brown, C.; Doss-Gollin, J.

2016-12-01

Climate model projections are commonly used for water resources management and planning under nonstationarity, but they do not reliably reproduce intense short-term precipitation and are instead more skilled at broader spatial scales. To provide a credible estimate of flood trend that reflects climate uncertainty, we present a framework that exploits the connections between synoptic-scale oceanic and atmospheric patterns and local-scale flood-producing meteorological events to develop long-term flood hazard projections. We demonstrate the method for the Iowa River, where high flow episodes have been found to correlate with tropical moisture exports that are associated with a pressure dipole across the eastern continental United States We characterize the relationship between flooding on the Iowa River and this pressure dipole through a nonstationary Pareto-Poisson peaks-over-threshold probability distribution estimated based on the historic record. We then combine the results of a trend analysis of dipole index in the historic record with the results of a trend analysis of the dipole index as simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs) under climate change conditions through a Bayesian framework. The resulting nonstationary posterior distribution of dipole index, combined with the dipole-conditioned peaks-over-threshold flood frequency model, connects local flood hazard to changes in large-scale atmospheric pressure and circulation patterns that are related to flooding in a process-driven framework. The Iowa River example demonstrates that the resulting nonstationary, probabilistic flood hazard projection may be used to inform risk-based flood adaptation decisions.

Analysis models for the estimation of oceanic fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carter, E. F.; Robinson, A. R.

1987-01-01

A general model for statistically optimal estimates is presented for dealing with scalar, vector and multivariate datasets. The method deals with anisotropic fields and treats space and time dependence equivalently. Problems addressed include the analysis, or the production of synoptic time series of regularly gridded fields from irregular and gappy datasets, and the estimate of fields by compositing observations from several different instruments and sampling schemes. Technical issues are discussed, including the convergence of statistical estimates, the choice of representation of the correlations, the influential domain of an observation, and the efficiency of numerical computations.

Unified Desktop for Monitoring & Control Applications - The Open Navigator Framework Applied for Control Centre and EGSE Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brauer, U.

2007-08-01

The Open Navigator Framework (ONF) was developed to provide a unified and scalable platform for user interface integration. The main objective for the framework was to raise usability of monitoring and control consoles and to provide a reuse of software components in different application areas. ONF is currently applied for the Columbus onboard crew interface, the commanding application for the Columbus Control Centre, the Columbus user facilities specialized user interfaces, the Mission Execution Crew Assistant (MECA) study and EADS Astrium internal R&D projects. ONF provides a well documented and proven middleware for GUI components (Java plugin interface, simplified concept similar to Eclipse). The overall application configuration is performed within a graphical user interface for layout and component selection. The end-user does not have to work in the underlying XML configuration files. ONF was optimized to provide harmonized user interfaces for monitoring and command consoles. It provides many convenience functions designed together with flight controllers and onboard crew: user defined workspaces, incl. support for multi screens efficient communication mechanism between the components integrated web browsing and documentation search &viewing consistent and integrated menus and shortcuts common logging and application configuration (properties) supervision interface for remote plugin GUI access (web based) A large number of operationally proven ONF components have been developed: Command Stack & History: Release of commands and follow up the command acknowledges System Message Panel: Browse, filter and search system messages/events Unified Synoptic System: Generic synoptic display system Situational Awareness : Show overall subsystem status based on monitoring of key parameters System Model Browser: Browse mission database defintions (measurements, commands, events) Flight Procedure Executor: Execute checklist and logical flow interactive procedures Web Browser : Integrated browser reference documentation and operations data Timeline Viewer: View master timeline as Gantt chart Search: Local search of operations products (e.g. documentation, procedures, displays) All GUI components access the underlying spacecraft data (commanding, reporting data, events, command history) via a common library providing adaptors for the current deployments (Columbus MCS, Columbus onboard Data Management System, Columbus Trainer raw packet protocol). New Adaptors are easy to develop. Currently an adaptor to SCOS 2000 is developed as part of a study for the ESTEC standardization section ("USS for ESTEC Reference Facility").

Dynamical ocean-atmospheric drivers of floods and droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Hall, Julia

2014-05-01

The present study contributes to a better depiction and understanding of the "facial expression" of the Earth in terms of dynamical ocean-atmospheric processes associated to both floods and droughts. For this purpose, the study focuses on nonlinear dynamical and statistical analysis of ocean-atmospheric mechanisms contributing to hydrological extremes, broadening the analytical hydro-meteorological perspective of floods and hydrological droughts to driving mechanisms and feedbacks at the global scale. In doing so, the analysis of the climate-related causality of hydrological extremes is not limited to the synoptic situation in the region where the events take place. Rather, it goes further in the train of causality, peering into dynamical interactions between planetary-scale ocean and atmospheric processes that drive weather regimes and influence the antecedent and event conditions associated to hydrological extremes. In order to illustrate the approach, dynamical ocean-atmospheric drivers are investigated for a selection of floods and droughts. Despite occurring in different regions with different timings, common underlying mechanisms are identified for both kinds of hydrological extremes. For instance, several analysed events are seen to have resulted from a large-scale atmospheric situation consisting on standing planetary waves encircling the northern hemisphere. These correspond to wider vortices locked in phase, resulting in wider and more persistent synoptic weather patterns, i.e. with larger spatial and temporal coherence. A standing train of anticyclones and depressions thus encircled the mid and upper latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The stationary regime of planetary waves occurs when the mean eastward zonal flow decreases up to a point in which it no longer exceeds the westward phase propagation of the Rossby waves produced by the latitude-varying Coriolis effect. The ocean-atmospheric causes for this behaviour and consequences on hydrological extremes are investigated and the findings supported with spatiotemporal geostatistical analysis and nonlinear geophysical models. Overall, the study provides a three-fold contribution to the research on hydrological extremes: Firstly, it improves their physical attribution by better understanding the dynamical reasons behind the meteorological drivers. Secondly, it brings out fundamental early warning signs for potential hydrological extremes, by bringing out global ocean-atmospheric features that manifest themselves much earlier than the regional weather patterns. Thirdly, it provides tools for addressing and understanding hydrological regime changes at wider spatiotemporal scales, by providing links to planetary-scale dynamical processes that play a crucial role in multi-decadal global climate variability.

Investigations of the preferred modes of north Pacific jet variability, their downstream impacts, and tropical and extratropical precursors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffin, Kyle S.

Time extended EOF (TE-EOF) analysis is employed to examine the synoptic-scale evolution of the two leading modes of north Pacific jet stream variability, namely its zonal extension/retraction (TE-EOF 1) and the north/south shift of its exit region (TE-EOF 2). Composite analyses are constructed preceding and following peaks in the principal component associated with each of the two TE-EOFs, providing insight into the preferred evolutions of the north Pacific jet. Jet extension events are associated with an anomalous Gulf of Alaska cyclone, while jet retractions are associated with an anomalous ridge over the Aleutians. Similar but shifted upper level patterns are noted with the corresponding poleward/equatorward shifted jet phases, with the poleward (equatorward) shift of the jet exit region associated with anomalous low-level warmth (cold) over western North America. Such composites also suggest connections between certain phases of these leading modes of jet variability and deep convection in the tropics, a connection that has been challenging to physically diagnose in previous studies. The isentropic pressure depth measures the mass contained within an isentropic layer in a given grid column, enabling the tracking of mass exhausted by deep convection. The gradient of isentropic pressure depth is directly associated with the vertical geostrophic wind shear in that layer and thus provides a means to track the influence of convective mass flux on the evolution of the jet stream. A case study focused on the extreme North American warm episode of March 2012 demonstrates how positive pressure depth anomalies from a strong MJO event impact the jet stream over eastern Asia and drive a portion of the mid-latitude response that leads to the flow amplification and subsequent downstream warmth. This study demonstrates one way by which isentropic pressure depth can diagnose the impacts of tropical deep convection on the mid-latitude circulation. Using TE-EOFs, composites of isentropic pressure depth are constructed, to examine the evolution of pressure depth anomalies preceding each phase of the two leading modes of jet variability. In jet extension events, a large negative pressure depth anomaly in the 315-330 K isentropic layer and a positive pressure depth anomaly in the 340-355 K isentropic layer align north and south of the climatological jet exit region, respectively. A similar but opposite configuration is found in jet retraction events. During poleward shifted jet events, the configuration of pressure depth anomalies is comparable to that observed in jet extension events, but shifted poleward. Positive pressure depth anomalies in each set of events predominantly originate from either the Maritime Continent or East Asia and track along the climatological jet before impacting the exit region of the jet stream. Negative pressure depth anomalies have similar upstream origins before moving through the jet in a similar manner. These composite evolutions provide insight into the synoptic-scale evolutions that precede the preferred modes of jet variability, highlighting the influence of both mid-latitude weather systems and mass flux from tropical deep convection on North Pacific jet variability.

Changes in Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Associated with Increased Extreme Precipitation Events in the Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collow, A.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Koster, R. D.

2016-12-01

Over the past two decades a statistically significant increase in the frequency of summertime extreme precipitation events has been observed over the northeastern United States - the largest such increase in the US in terms of area and magnitude. In an effort to characterize synoptic scale patterns and changes to the atmospheric circulation associated with extreme precipitation events in this region, atmospheric fields from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) are composited on days that exceed the 90th percentile of precipitation from the CPC-Unified daily gauge-based precipitation observations. Changes over time in composites of sea level pressure, 500 hPa height, and the vertical profile of equivalent potential temperature indicate that the observed increase in extreme precipitation events is associated with extratropical cyclones, including cut off low pressure and frontal systems. Analysis of the Eady maximum growth rate, an indicator for storm tracks, shows that storms tracks in recent years have shifted southward. In addition, mean summertime transient meridional winds have decreased over time, slowing baroclinic systems and causing stationary systems to become more frequent, in agreement with previous studies examining blocking due to high pressure systems. The Atlantic Ocean provides a significant supply of moisture that converges over the region when a cyclonic circulation is situated to the south, and the statistically significant increase in Eady maximum growth rate over time there provides an increasingly improved thermodynamic environment for extreme precipitation events.

Modeling of estuarne chlorophyll a from an airborne scanner

USGS Publications Warehouse

Khorram, Siamak; Catts, Glenn P.; Cloern, James E.; Knight, Allen W.

1987-01-01

Near simultaneous collection of 34 surface water samples and airborne multispectral scanner data provided input for regression models developed to predict surface concentrations of estuarine chlorophyll a. Two wavelength ratios were employed in model development. The ratios werechosen to capitalize on the spectral characteristics of chlorophyll a, while minimizing atmospheric influences. Models were then applied to data previously acquired over the study area thre years earlier. Results are in the form of color-coded displays of predicted chlorophyll a concentrations and comparisons of the agreement among measured surface samples and predictions basedon coincident remotely sensed data. The influence of large variations in fresh-water inflow to the estuary are clearly apparent in the results. The synoptic view provided by remote sensing is another method of examining important estuarine dynamics difficult to observe from in situ sampling alone.

Atmospheric observations for STS-1 landing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, R. E.; Arnold, J. E.; Wilson, G. S.

1981-01-01

A summary of synoptic weather conditions existing over the western United States is given for the time of shuttle descent into Edwards Air Force Base, California. The techniques and methods used to furnish synoptic atmospheric data at the surface and aloft for flight verification of the STS-1 orbiter during its descent into Edwards Air Force Base are specified. Examples of the upper level data set are given.

Interannual variations in fire weather, fire extent, and synoptic-scale circulation patterns in northern California and Oregon

Treesearch

Valerie Trouet; Alan H. Taylor; Andrew M. Carleton; Carl N. Skinner

2009-01-01

The Mediterranean climate region on the west coast of the United States is characterized by wet winters and dry summers, and by high fire activity. The importance of synoptic-scale circulation patterns (ENSO, PDO, PNA) on fire-climate interactions is evident in contemporary fire data sets and in pre-Euroamerican tree-ring-based fire records. We investigated how...

Can Different Teaching Strategies or Methods of Preparing Pupils Lead to Greater Improvements from GCSE to A Level Performance?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greatorex, Jackie; Malacova, Eva

2006-01-01

There is no published empirically based research on the new GCE synoptic assessment. Consequently no published research has been undertaken on its role, how it is taught or how pupils are prepared for the assessment. Neither is there a published evaluation of the effectiveness of teaching the synoptic units. It is these issues which are addressed…

Synoptic meteorological modes of variability for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality in major metropolitan regions of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, Danny M.; Tai, Amos P. K.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Moch, Jonathan M.; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Shen, Lu; Martin, Randall V.

2018-05-01

In his study, we use a combination of multivariate statistical methods to understand the relationships of PM2.5 with local meteorology and synoptic weather patterns in different regions of China across various timescales. Using June 2014 to May 2017 daily total PM2.5 observations from ˜ 1500 monitors, all deseasonalized and detrended to focus on synoptic-scale variations, we find strong correlations of daily PM2.5 with all selected meteorological variables (e.g., positive correlation with temperature but negative correlation with sea-level pressure throughout China; positive and negative correlation with relative humidity in northern and southern China, respectively). The spatial patterns suggest that the apparent correlations with individual meteorological variables may arise from common association with synoptic systems. Based on a principal component analysis of 1998-2017 meteorological data to diagnose distinct meteorological modes that dominate synoptic weather in four major regions of China, we find strong correlations of PM2.5 with several synoptic modes that explain 10 to 40 % of daily PM2.5 variability. These modes include monsoonal flows and cold frontal passages in northern and central China associated with the Siberian High, onshore flows in eastern China, and frontal rainstorms in southern China. Using the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region as a case study, we further find strong interannual correlations of regionally averaged satellite-derived annual mean PM2.5 with annual mean relative humidity (RH; positive) and springtime fluctuation frequency of the Siberian High (negative). We apply the resulting PM2.5-to-climate sensitivities to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate projections to predict future PM2.5 by the 2050s due to climate change, and find a modest decrease of ˜ 0.5 µg m-3 in annual mean PM2.5 in the BTH region due to more frequent cold frontal ventilation under the RCP8.5 future, representing a small climate benefit, but the RH-induced PM2.5 change is inconclusive due to the large inter-model differences in RH projections.

Effects of synoptic weather on ground-level PM2.5 concentrations in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ying; Zhao, Naizhuo; Vanos, Jennifer K.; Cao, Guofeng

2017-01-01

It is known that individual meteorological factors affect the concentrations of fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5), yet the specific meteorological effects found in previous studies are largely inconsistent and even conflicting. This study investigates influences of daily and short term changes in synoptic weather on ground-level PM2.5 concentrations in a large geographical area (75 cities across the contiguous United States (U.S.)) by using ten-year (2001-2010) spatial synoptic classification (SSC) data. We find that in the spring, summer, and fall the presence of the tropical weather types (i.e., dry-tropical (DT) and moist-tropical (MT)) is likely to associate with significantly higher levels of PM2.5 as compared to an all-weather-type-day average, and the presence of the polar weather types (i.e., dry-polar (DP) and moist-polar (MP)) is associated with significantly lower PM2.5 concentrations. The short-term (day to day) changes in synoptic weather types in a region are also likely to lead to significant variance in PM2.5 concentrations. For example, the largest increase in PM2.5 concentration occurs with the synoptic weather type changing from DP-to-MT. Conversely, a MT-to-DP weather type change results in the largest decrease in PM2.5 concentrations. Compared to air temperature, the effects of atmospheric moisture on PM2.5 concentration tend to be subtle, demonstrating that in conjunction with moderate temperature, neither the dry nor the moist air (except moist-moderate (MM) in summer) are associated with significantly high or low PM2.5 concentrations. Finally, we find that the effects of the synoptic weather type on PM2.5 concentrations may vary for different seasons and geographical areas. These findings suggest that interactions between atmospheric factors and seasonal and/or geographical factors have considerable impacts on the PM2.5 concentrations, and therefore should be considered in addition to the SSC when conducting environment health assessments.

Synoptic Control of Cross-Barrier Precipitation Ratios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mass, C.; Vargas, R.

2013-12-01

The substantial precipitation contrasts across mountain barriers, with windward enhancement on one side and leeward reduction on the other, have been the subject of several studies and reviews, both observational and theoretical. A lesser number of papers have examined the temporal variability of the orographic precipitation contrasts, including the origins of such variability. For example, Siler et al. (2013) examined the variability of the rain-shadow effect across the Cascade Mountains of Washington State. They found that the intensity of the winter-mean rain shadow was weaker in El Nino than La Nina years, and suggested that the strongest (weakest) rain shadows occurred for warm-sector (warm-frontal) situations. Dettinger et al. (2004) examined the synoptic controls of varying orographic precipitation ratios across the Sierra Nevada of California, with ratios defined by the difference in precipitation between the Central Valley and the western slopes of the barrier. They found increased ratios when the flow was more normal to the terrain and when vertical stability was less, with higher ratios after cold frontal passage compared to the warm sectors of midlatitude cyclones. The latter result appears to contradict the findings of Siler et al (2013). This presentation explores the temporal variations in the intensity of the precipitation gradient across the Cascade Mountains of Washington State and describes the synoptic conditions associated with periods in which precipitation is heavier on the western side, heavier on the eastern side, or nearly equal across the barrier. The talk will begin by summarizing the temporal variations of precipitation on the windward and leeward sides of the Cascades for a several year period. Segregating the hours when precipitation is substantially greater on the windward side, greater on the leeward side, or roughly equal, provides a series of dates used for synoptic composites for these three situations. It is shown that there are coherent and significant synoptic differences between the three precipitation ratio regimes, and these differences are illustrated for several case studies. For example, windward enhancement is greater after the passage of cold or occluded fronts, when stability is reduced and the flow is more westerly. Finally, the physical connection between synoptic flow and the changing cross-barrier precipitation contrasts are discussed.

The effect of latent heat release on synoptic-to-planetary wave interactions and its implication for satellite observations: Theoretical modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Branscome, Lee E.; Bleck, Rainer; Obrien, Enda

1990-01-01

The project objectives are to develop process models to investigate the interaction of planetary and synoptic-scale waves including the effects of latent heat release (precipitation), nonlinear dynamics, physical and boundary-layer processes, and large-scale topography; to determine the importance of latent heat release for temporal variability and time-mean behavior of planetary and synoptic-scale waves; to compare the model results with available observations of planetary and synoptic wave variability; and to assess the implications of the results for monitoring precipitation in oceanic-storm tracks by satellite observing systems. Researchers have utilized two different models for this project: a two-level quasi-geostrophic model to study intraseasonal variability, anomalous circulations and the seasonal cycle, and a 10-level, multi-wave primitive equation model to validate the two-level Q-G model and examine effects of convection, surface processes, and spherical geometry. It explicitly resolves several planetary and synoptic waves and includes specific humidity (as a predicted variable), moist convection, and large-scale precipitation. In the past year researchers have concentrated on experiments with the multi-level primitive equation model. The dynamical part of that model is similar to the spectral model used by the National Meteorological Center for medium-range forecasts. The model includes parameterizations of large-scale condensation and moist convection. To test the validity of results regarding the influence of convective precipitation, researchers can use either one of two different convective schemes in the model, a Kuo convective scheme or a modified Arakawa-Schubert scheme which includes downdrafts. By choosing one or the other scheme, they can evaluate the impact of the convective parameterization on the circulation. In the past year researchers performed a variety of initial-value experiments with the primitive-equation model. Using initial conditions typical of climatological winter conditions, they examined the behavior of synoptic and planetary waves growing in moist and dry environments. Surface conditions were representative of a zonally averaged ocean. They found that moist convection associated with baroclinic wave development was confined to the subtropics.

Eclipse-induced wind changes over the British Isles on the 20 March 2015

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The British Isles benefits from dense meteorological observation networks, enabling insights into the still-unresolved effects of solar eclipse events on the near-surface wind field. The near-surface effects of the solar eclipse of 20 March 2015 are derived through comparison of output from the Met Office’s operational weather forecast model (which is ignorant of the eclipse) with data from two meteorological networks: the Met Office’s land surface station (MIDAS) network and a roadside measurement network operated by Vaisala. Synoptic-evolution relative calculations reveal the cooling and increase in relative humidity almost universally attributed to eclipse events. In addition, a slackening of wind speeds by up to about 2 knots in already weak winds and backing in wind direction of about 20° under clear skies across middle England are attributed to the eclipse event. The slackening of wind speed is consistent with the previously reported boundary layer stabilization during eclipse events. Wind direction changes have previously been attributed to a large-scale ‘eclipse-induced cold-cored cyclone’, mountain slope flows, and changes in the strength of sea breezes. A new explanation is proposed here by analogy with nocturnal wind changes at sunset and shown to predict direction changes consistent with those observed. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Atmospheric effects of solar eclipses stimulated by the 2015 UK eclipse’. PMID:27550759

On the relationship between atmospheric rivers, weather types and floods in Galicia (NW Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eiras-Barca, Jorge; Lorenzo, Nieves; Taboada, Juan; Robles, Alba; Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo

2018-06-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) - long and narrow structures of anomalously high water vapor flux located in the warm sector of extratropical cyclones - have been shown to be closely related to extreme precipitation and flooding. In this paper we analyze the connection between ARs and flooding in the northwestern Spanish region of Galicia under a variety of synoptic conditions represented by the so-called weather types, a classification of daily sea-level pressure patterns obtained by means of a simple scheme that adopts the subjective procedure of Lamb. Flood events are identified from official reports conducted by the Spanish emergency management agency (Protección Civil) from 1979 to 2010. Our results suggest that, although most flood events in Galicia do not coincide with the presence of an overhead AR, ARs are present in the majority of severe cases, particularly in coastal areas. Flood events associated with ARs are connected to cyclonic weather types with westerly and southwesterly flows, which occur mostly in winter months. The link between ARs and severe flooding is not very apparent in inland areas or during summer months, in which case heavy precipitation is usually not frontal in nature but rather convective. Nevertheless, our results show that, in general, the amount of precipitation in flood events in Galicia more than doubles when an AR is present.

The development of a non-linear autoregressive model with exogenous input (NARX) to model climate-water clarity relationships: reconstructing a historical water clarity index for the coastal waters of the southeastern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Cameron C.; Sheridan, Scott C.; Barnes, Brian B.; Hu, Chuanmin; Pirhalla, Douglas E.; Ransibrahmanakul, Varis; Shein, Karsten

2017-10-01

The coastal waters of the southeastern USA contain important protected habitats and natural resources that are vulnerable to climate variability and singular weather events. Water clarity, strongly affected by atmospheric events, is linked to substantial environmental impacts throughout the region. To assess this relationship over the long-term, this study uses an artificial neural network-based time series modeling technique known as non-linear autoregressive models with exogenous input (NARX models) to explore the relationship between climate and a water clarity index (KDI) in this area and to reconstruct this index over a 66-year period. Results show that synoptic-scale circulation patterns, weather types, and precipitation all play roles in impacting water clarity to varying degrees in each region of the larger domain. In particular, turbid water is associated with transitional weather and cyclonic circulation in much of the study region. Overall, NARX model performance also varies—regionally, seasonally and interannually—with wintertime estimates of KDI along the West Florida Shelf correlating to the actual KDI at r > 0.70. Periods of extreme (high) KDI in this area coincide with notable El Niño events. An upward trend in extreme KDI events from 1948 to 2013 is also present across much of the Florida Gulf coast.

Why continuous simulation? The role of antecedent moisture in design flood estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathiraja, S.; Westra, S.; Sharma, A.

2012-06-01

Continuous simulation for design flood estimation is increasingly becoming a viable alternative to traditional event-based methods. The advantage of continuous simulation approaches is that the catchment moisture state prior to the flood-producing rainfall event is implicitly incorporated within the modeling framework, provided the model has been calibrated and validated to produce reasonable simulations. This contrasts with event-based models in which both information about the expected sequence of rainfall and evaporation preceding the flood-producing rainfall event, as well as catchment storage and infiltration properties, are commonly pooled together into a single set of "loss" parameters which require adjustment through the process of calibration. To identify the importance of accounting for antecedent moisture in flood modeling, this paper uses a continuous rainfall-runoff model calibrated to 45 catchments in the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia. Flood peaks derived using the historical daily rainfall record are compared with those derived using resampled daily rainfall, for which the sequencing of wet and dry days preceding the heavy rainfall event is removed. The analysis shows that there is a consistent underestimation of the design flood events when antecedent moisture is not properly simulated, which can be as much as 30% when only 1 or 2 days of antecedent rainfall are considered, compared to 5% when this is extended to 60 days of prior rainfall. These results show that, in general, it is necessary to consider both short-term memory in rainfall associated with synoptic scale dependence, as well as longer-term memory at seasonal or longer time scale variability in order to obtain accurate design flood estimates.

Water quality and algal conditions in the North Umpqua River, Oregon, 1995-2007, and their response to Diamond Lake restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carpenter, Kurt D.; Anderson, Chauncey W.; Jones, Mikeal E.

2014-01-01

This study also provided an opportunity to examine changes in stream conditions in the main stem North Umpqua River and its tributaries, which were previously sampled in July 1995. The 1995 study was designed to provide background data during relicensing of the upstream hydroelectric facilities, and was partly motivated by anecdotal concerns about increase periphyton growth and reduced water clarity. As part of the 2005–07 study associated with the Diamond Lake restoration project, we repeated the 1995 basinwide synoptic survey in 2005, before the rotenone treatment. Although both samplings were just a snapshot of conditions, these data were evaluated for possible changes between 1995 and 2005.

The Synoptic Climatology of Severe Thunderstorms in Manitoba.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ladochy, Stephen Eugene Gabriel

The thesis presents the climatologies for Manitoba thunderstorms, hailstorms and tornadoes as well as investigates the synoptic weather conditions conducive for their development. The study not only uses standard meteorological information, but also various kinds of proxy data, in the form of damage reports. These damage reports complement the meteorological data by providing a higher resolution of observations, particularly in the sparsely populated regions. The synoptic conditions are relatively similar for all forms of severe thunderstorms, though the upper level jet stream (ULJ) is stronger for tornadoes, in general. Composite charts, drawn for 50 larger, more damaging hail days and 48 tornado days in the 1970's, helped identify important surface and upper air weather parameters and their inter -relationships with each other and the location of the storm. Time sequence composite charts were used to also show the development process in severe weather occurrences. From the composites, a synoptic weather type classification was devised with 10 categories to identify each storm by type. The most common pattern for severe weather has a strong southwesterly ULJ, with the storm occurring ahead of an advancing cold front. The ULJ patterns were drawn for each synoptic type days, showing differences between categories. The average conditions during tornado touchdowns were also seen from composite maps of surface and upper air isobaric charts. While severe thunderstorms are seen to occur under the "ideal" conditions, often described for U.S. severe weather, they can also be produced under other weather patterns and combinations of atmospheric parameters thought less favorable. The ULJ and LLJ (low-level jet stream) models used in U.S. studies do not always fit Manitoba storms, however, less favorable jet positions, at specific levels, can be compensated for by low-level advection of warm, and moist air.