A Precipitation Climatology of the Snowy Mountains, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theobald, Alison; McGowan, Hamish; Speirs, Johanna

2014-05-01

The precipitation that falls in the Snowy Mountains region of southeastern Australia provides critical water resources for hydroelectric power generation. Water storages in this region are also a major source of agricultural irrigation, environmental flows, and offer a degree of flood protection for some of the major river systems in Australia. Despite this importance, there remains a knowledge gap regarding the long-term, historic variability of the synoptic weather systems that deliver precipitation to the region. This research aims to increase the understanding of long-term variations in precipitation-bearing weather systems resulting in runoff into the Snowy Mountains catchments and reservoirs, and the way in which these are influenced by large-scale climate drivers. Here we present initial results on the development of a climatology of precipitation-bearing synoptic weather systems (synoptic typology), spanning a period of over 100 years. The synoptic typology is developed from the numerical weather model re-analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), in conjunction with regional precipitation and temperature data from a network of private gauges. Given the importance of surface, mid- and upper-air patterns on seasonal precipitation, the synoptic typing will be based on a range of meteorological variables throughout the depth of the troposphere, highlighting the importance of different atmospheric levels on the development and steering of synoptic precipitation bearing systems. The temporal and spatial variability of these synoptic systems, their response to teleconnection forcings and their contribution to inflow generation in the headwater catchments of the Snowy Mountains will be investigated. The resulting climatology will provide new understanding of the drivers of regional-scale precipitation variability at inter- and intra-annual timescales. It will enable greater understanding of how variability in synoptic scale atmospheric circulation affects the hydroclimate of alpine environments in southeast Australia - allowing recently observed precipitation declines to be placed in the context of a long-term record spanning at least 100 years. This information will provide further insight into the impacts of predicted anthropogenic climate change and will ultimately lead to more informed water resource management in the Snowy Mountains.

WRF Simulation of the Genesis of Hurricane Javier (2004) in the Eastern Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, Scott A.

2005-01-01

The Eastern Pacific has the highest frequency of genesis events per unit area of any region worldwide (Elsberry et al 1987). African easterly waves, mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), and topographic effects are thought to play roles in the genesis of tropical cyclones there (Frank and Clark 1980, Velasco and Fritsch 1987, Zehnder 1991, Zehnder and Gall 1991; Farfan and Zehnder 1997). Mozer and Zehnder (1996), using dry, idealized simulations of flow past a large-scale three-dimensional mountain range comparable to the Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico, showed that upstream flow blocking led to diversion of the flow primarily to the south of the mountains. This flow diversion led to the formation of a low-level, barotropically unstable jet (at a location comparable to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec) and the continuous formation of synoptic-scale vorticity maxima, which they suggested may play a role in tropical cyclogenesis. Farfan and Zehnder (1 997) examined the synoptic-scale circulations that led to the formation of Hurricane Guillermo (1991). Using numerical simulations, they found that flow blocking led to the formation of a low-level easterly jet south of the mountains of Central America and a northeasterly (gap flow) jet over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, which combined with the flow associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to produce a closed cyclonic circulation in the location of Guillermo s formation. As will be discussed in this paper, the evolution of the flow field that was associated with the genesis of Hurricane Javier was similar to that described in Farfan and Zehnder (1997), with well-defined topographic flow features. Here, using a high- resolution simulation with the WRF model, we investigate whether these topographically induced flows played a significant role in the genesis of Javier.

The life cycles of persistent anomalies and blocking over the North Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dole, Randall M.

1986-01-01

The evolution of persistent anomaly patterns over the central North Pacific is investigated. Composite time evolution fields of the 500-mbar anomaly patterns are constructed from low-pass and unfiltered height anomaly data; the time scales for the development and decay of these persistent anomalies are analyzed. The relationship between zonal flow in the Pacific jet region and the development of the anomaly patterns is examined. The effect of baroclinic instabilities on the development of the anomalies is studied. The vertical structure and synoptic characteristics of the evolution of the anomalies are described. It is noted that the initial rapid growth of the main center may be associated with a propagating, intensifying, synoptic-scale disturbance which originates in the midlatitudes over eastern Asia.

Classification of summertime synoptic patterns in Beijing and their associations with boundary layer structure affecting aerosol pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Yucong; Guo, Jianping; Liu, Shuhua; Liu, Huan; Li, Zhanqing; Zhang, Wanchun; Zhai, Panmao

2017-02-01

Meteorological conditions within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) are closely governed by large-scale synoptic patterns and play important roles in air quality by directly and indirectly affecting the emission, transport, formation, and deposition of air pollutants. Partly due to the lack of long-term fine-resolution observations of the PBL, the relationships between synoptic patterns, PBL structure, and aerosol pollution in Beijing have not been well understood. This study applied the obliquely rotated principal component analysis in T-mode to classify the summertime synoptic conditions over Beijing using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis from 2011 to 2014, and investigated their relationships with PBL structure and aerosol pollution by combining numerical simulations, measurements of surface meteorological variables, fine-resolution soundings, the concentration of particles with diameters less than or equal to 2.5 µm, total cloud cover (CLD), and reanalysis data. Among the seven identified synoptic patterns, three types accounted for 67 % of the total number of cases studied and were associated with heavy aerosol pollution events. These particular synoptic patterns were characterized by high-pressure systems located to the east or southeast of Beijing at the 925 hPa level, which blocked the air flow seaward, and southerly PBL winds that brought in polluted air from the southern industrial zone. The horizontal transport of pollutants induced by the synoptic forcings may be the most important factor affecting the air quality of Beijing in summer. In the vertical dimension, these three synoptic patterns featured a relatively low boundary layer height (BLH) in the afternoon, accompanied by high CLD and southerly cold advection from the seas within the PBL. The high CLD reduced the solar radiation reaching the surface, and suppressed the thermal turbulence, leading to lower BLH. Besides, the numerical sensitive experiments show that cold advection induced by the large-scale synoptic forcing may have cooled the PBL, leading to an increase in near-surface stability and a decrease in the BLH in the afternoon. Moreover, when warm advection appeared simultaneously above the top level of the PBL, the thermal inversion layer capping the PBL may have been strengthened, resulting in the further suppression of PBL and thus the deterioration of aerosol pollution levels. This study has important implications for understanding the crucial roles that meteorological factors (at both synoptic and local scales) play in modulating and forecasting aerosol pollution in Beijing and its surrounding area.

A Survey of Synoptic Waves over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Yuan-Ming; Thorncroft, Chris D.; Kiladis, George N.

2017-04-01

Motivated by the pronounced wave-to-wave variability in African easterly wave (AEW) circulation, the three-dimensional structure of synoptic waves over West Africa is revisited with an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) approach to isolate the dominant wave pattern. In this talk we present results of EOF analyses conducted with brightness temperature (Tb) derived from satellite observation and meridional wind at multiple levels from reanalysis data to examine the characteristics and variability of synoptic waves. The structure of waves is extracted by projecting the wind fields and Tb onto the principle components associated with EOF patterns of appropriately filtered parameters. The Tb EOF shows a confined AEW circulation centered around 7.5°N and a distinct evolution of convection within the wave in line with previous research. However, in striking contrast to the confined flow pattern in the Tb EOF, the EOF of 700-hPa meridional wind is distinguished by a meridionally broad AEW circulation. While the peak in circulation is centered around 10°N, there is marked cross-equatorial flow that is associated with an antisymmetric geopotential signature across the equator. This suggests the presence of a mixed Rossby-gravity wave (MRG) structure consistent with Matsuno's shallow water theory. Granted that the vast majority of studies on MRGs focus on the central and western Pacific region, this "hybrid" between AEWs and MRGs over West Africa and Atlantic sector has received little attention and more work regarding the nature and causes of its wave structure and behavior is needed. In addition, an upper-level synoptic wave is captured by EOFs of 200-hPa meridional wind. The kinematic fields reveal a continental-scale wave straddling the equator that resembles an MRG. This upper-level MRG appears to develop in situ over the Horn of Africa and intensifies as it moves across the continent. The associated lower-level structure shows an AEW-like circulation but with a larger spatial extent. This finding motivates the need for more in-depth investigations of synoptic wave variability over the region including an assessment of the direction of causality between the upper-level MRG and the lower-level AEW. This study highlights the various synoptic wave structures over West Africa and their interaction with AEWs. The results suggest the variability of AEW activity could be modulated by, in addition to the large-scale environment, other synoptic waves in the region. We will pursue the EOF approach to shed light on the characteristics and causes of the variability in synoptic wave activity over West Africa.

DEVELOPMENT OF AN ADJUSTABLE BUOYANCY BALLOON TRACER OF ATMOSPHERIC MOTION. PHASE 1. SYSTEMS DESIGN AND DEMONSTRATION OF FEASIBILITY

EPA Science Inventory

An Adjustable Buoyancy Balloon Tracer of Atmospheric Motion is a research tool which allows one to follow atmospheric flows in both the horizontal and the vertical, including the weak, sustained vertical motion associated with meso- and synoptic- scale atmospheric disturbances. T...

An investigation of relationships between meso- and synoptic-scale phenomena

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scoggins, J. R.; Wood, J. E.; Fuelberg, H. E.; Read, W. L.

1972-01-01

Methods based on the vorticity equation, the adiabatic method, the curvature of the vertical wind profile, and the structure of synoptic waves are used to determine areas of positive vertical motion in the mid-troposphere for a period in each season. Parameters indicative of low-level moisture and conditional instability are areas in which mesoscale systems may be present. The best association between mesoscale and synoptic-scale phenomena was found for a period during December when synoptic-scale systems were well developed. A good association between meso- and synoptic-scale events also was found for a period during March, while the poorest association was found for a June period. Daytime surface heating apparently is an important factor in the formation of mesoscale systems during the summer. It is concluded that the formation of mesoscale phenomena may be determined essentially from synoptic-scale conditions during winter, late fall, and early spring.

On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdon-Kidd, D.; Kiem, A. S.

2008-10-01

In this paper regional (synoptic) and large-scale climate drivers of rainfall are investigated for Victoria, Australia. A non-linear classification methodology known as self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify 20 key regional synoptic patterns, which are shown to capture a range of significant synoptic features known to influence the climate of the region. Rainfall distributions are assigned to each of the 20 patterns for nine rainfall stations located across Victoria, resulting in a clear distinction between wet and dry synoptic types at each station. The influence of large-scale climate modes on the frequency and timing of the regional synoptic patterns is also investigated. This analysis revealed that phase changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and/or Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are associated with a shift in the relative frequency of wet and dry synoptic types. Importantly, these results highlight the potential to utilise the link between the regional synoptic patterns derived in this study and large-scale climate modes to improve rainfall forecasting for Victoria, both in the short- (i.e. seasonal) and long-term (i.e. decadal/multi-decadal scale). In addition, the regional and large-scale climate drivers identified in this study provide a benchmark by which the performance of Global Climate Models (GCMs) may be assessed.

Optimum employment of satellite indirect soundings as numerical model input

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horn, L. H.; Derber, J. C.; Koehler, T. L.; Schmidt, B. D.

1981-01-01

The characteristics of satellite-derived temperature soundings that would significantly affect their use as input for numerical weather prediction models were examined. Independent evaluations of satellite soundings were emphasized to better define error characteristics. Results of a Nimbus-6 sounding study reveal an underestimation of the strength of synoptic scale troughs and ridges, and associated gradients in isobaric height and temperature fields. The most significant errors occurred near the Earth's surface and the tropopause. Soundings from the TIROS-N and NOAA-6 satellites were also evaluated. Results again showed an underestimation of upper level trough amplitudes leading to weaker thermal gradient depictions in satellite-only fields. These errors show a definite correlation to the synoptic flow patterns. In a satellite-only analysis used to initialize a numerical model forecast, it was found that these synoptically correlated errors were retained in the forecast sequence.

On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdon-Kidd, D. C.; Kiem, A. S.

2009-04-01

In this paper regional (synoptic) and large-scale climate drivers of rainfall are investigated for Victoria, Australia. A non-linear classification methodology known as self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify 20 key regional synoptic patterns, which are shown to capture a range of significant synoptic features known to influence the climate of the region. Rainfall distributions are assigned to each of the 20 patterns for nine rainfall stations located across Victoria, resulting in a clear distinction between wet and dry synoptic types at each station. The influence of large-scale climate modes on the frequency and timing of the regional synoptic patterns is also investigated. This analysis revealed that phase changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and/or the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are associated with a shift in the relative frequency of wet and dry synoptic types on an annual to inter-annual timescale. In addition, the relative frequency of synoptic types is shown to vary on a multi-decadal timescale, associated with changes in the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Importantly, these results highlight the potential to utilise the link between the regional synoptic patterns derived in this study and large-scale climate modes to improve rainfall forecasting for Victoria, both in the short- (i.e. seasonal) and long-term (i.e. decadal/multi-decadal scale). In addition, the regional and large-scale climate drivers identified in this study provide a benchmark by which the performance of Global Climate Models (GCMs) may be assessed.

Regional climates in the GISS global circulation model - Synoptic-scale circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hewitson, B.; Crane, R. G.

1992-01-01

A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs) is their perceived inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global-scale change, and it is these regional-scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human-environmental response. For large areas of the extratropics, the local climate is controlled by the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation, and it is the purpose of this paper to evaluate the synoptic-scale circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. A methodology for validating the daily synoptic circulation using Principal Component Analysis is described, and the methodology is then applied to the GCM simulation of sea level pressure over the continental United States (excluding Alaska). The analysis demonstrates that the GISS 4 x 5 deg GCM Model II effectively simulates the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation over the United States. The modes of variance describing the atmospheric circulation of the model are comparable to those found in the observed data, and these modes explain similar amounts of variance in their respective datasets. The temporal behavior of these circulation modes in the synoptic time frame are also comparable.

Energy transformations associated with the synoptic and planetary scales during the evolution of a blocking anticyclone and an upstream explosively-developing cyclone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Phillip J.; Tsou, Chih-Hua

1992-01-01

The eddy kinetic energy (KE), release of eddy potential energy, generation of eddy kinetic energy, and exchange between eddy and zonal kinetic energy are investigated for a blocking anticyclone over the North Atlantic Ocean and an extratropical cyclone that developed during January 17-21, 1979. The results indicate that KE was maintained by baroclinic conversion of potential to kinetic. As released potential energy was being used to generate KE, a portion of the KE was barotropically converted to zonal KE. These transformations were dominated by the synoptic-scale component. While changes in the mass field depended not only on the synoptic scale but also on the interactions between the synoptic and planetary scales, the corresponding changes in the eddy motion fields responded largely to synoptic-scale processes.

Air flow analysis in the upper Río Negro Valley (Argentina)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cogliati, M. G.; Mazzeo, N. A.

2006-06-01

The so called Upper Río Negro Valley in Argentina is one of the most important fruit and vegetable production regions of the country. It comprises the lower valleys of the Limay and Neuquén rivers and the upper Negro river valley. Out of the 41,671 cultivated hectares, 84.6% are cultivated with fruit trees, especially apple, pear and stone fruit trees. Late frosts occurring when trees are sensitive to low temperatures have a significant impact on the regional production. This study presents an analysis of air flow characteristics in the Upper Río Negro Valley and its relationship with ambient air flow. To such effect, observations made when synoptic-scale weather patterns were favorable for radiative frosts (light wind and clear sky) or nocturnal temperature inversion in the lower layer were used. In the Negro river valley, both wind channeling and downward horizontal momentum transport from ambient wind were observed; in nighttime, very light wind events occurred, possibly associated with drainage winds from the nearby higher levels of the barda. In the Neuquén river valley, the prevailing effect appeared to be forced channeling, consistent with the results obtained in valleys where the synoptic scale wind crossed the axis of the valley. In the Limay river valley, the flow was observed to blow parallel to the longitudinal valley axis, possibly influenced by pressure gradient and forced channeling.

Upper-Level Waves of Synoptic Scale at Midlatitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivest, Chantal

1990-01-01

Upper-level waves of synoptic scale are important dynamical entities at midlatitudes. They often induce surface cyclogenesis (cf. Peterssen and Smebye, 1971), and their life duration is typically longer than time scales for disruption by the ambient shear (Sanders, 1988). The objectives of the present thesis are to explain the maintenance and genesis of upper-level synoptic-scale waves in the midlatitude flow. We develop an analytical model of waves on generalized Eady basic states that have uniform tropospheric and stratospheric potential vorticity, but allow for the decay of density with height. The Eady basic state represents the limiting case of infinite stratospheric stability and constant density. We find that the Eady normal mode characteristics hold in the presence of realistic tropopause and stratosphere. In particular, the basic states studied support at the synoptic scale upper-level normal modes. These modes provide simple models for the dynamics of upper-level synoptic-scale waves, as waves supported by the large latitudinal gradients of potential vorticity at the tropopause. In the presence of infinitesimal positive tropospheric gradients of potential vorticity, the upper-level normal mode solutions no longer exist, as was demonstrated in Green (1960). Disappearance of the normal mode solution when a parameter changes slightly represents a dilemma that we seek to understand. We examine what happens to the upper-level normal modes in the presence of tropospheric gradients of potential vorticity in a series of initial -value experiments. Our results show that the normal modes become slowly decaying quasi-modes. Mathematically the quasi-modes consist of a superposition of singular modes sharply peaked in the phase speed domain, and their decay proceeds as the modes interfere with one another. We repeat these experiments in basic states with a smooth tropopause in the presence of tropospheric and stratospheric gradients, and similar results are obtained. Basic states with positive tropospheric and stratospheric gradients of potential vorticity are found to support upper-level synoptic-scale waves for time scales consistent with observations. Following Farrell (1989), we then identify a class of near optimal initial conditions for the excitation of upper-level waves. The initial conditions consist of upper -tropospheric disturbances that lean against the shear. They strongly excite upper-level waves not only in the absence of tropospheric potential vorticity gradients, but also in their presence. This result demonstrates that quasi -modes are as likely to emerge from favorably configured initial conditions as real normal modes, although their excitation is followed by a slow decay. (Copies available exclusively from MIT Libraries, Rm. 14-0551, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307. Ph. 617-253-5668; Fax 617-253-1690.).

Performance characterization of a cross-flow hydrokinetic turbine in sheared inflow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Forbush, Dominic; Polagye, Brian; Thomson, Jim

2016-12-01

A method for constructing a non-dimensional performance curve for a cross-flow hydrokinetic turbine in sheared flow is developed for a natural river site. The river flow characteristics are quasi-steady, with negligible vertical shear, persistent lateral shear, and synoptic changes dominated by long time scales (days to weeks). Performance curves developed from inflow velocities measured at individual points (randomly sampled) yield inconclusive turbine performance characteristics because of the spatial variation in mean flow. Performance curves using temporally- and spatially-averaged inflow velocities are more conclusive. The implications of sheared inflow are considered in terms of resource assessment and turbine control.

Forcing, properties, structure, and antecedent synoptic climatology of the Snake River Plain Convergence Zone of eastern Idaho: Analyses of observations and numerical simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andretta, Thomas A.

The Snake River Plain Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is a convergent shear zone generated by synoptic-scale post cold-frontal winds in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) interacting with the complex topography of eastern Idaho. The SPCZ produces clouds and occasional precipitation over time scales of 6--12 hours in a significant area of mesoscale dimensions (10--50 x 10 3 km2). This meso-beta-scale feature also contributes to the precipitation climatology in a semi-arid plain. The SPCZ is climatologically linked to the passage of synoptic-scale cold fronts and typically occurs in the fall and winter months with the highest frequencies in October, November, and January. The Snake River Plain of eastern Idaho is covered by a dense surface mesonetwork of towers with sensible weather measurements, single Doppler weather radar, regional soundings, and operational model sources. The ability of numerical weather prediction models to simulate the SPCZ depends on several factors: the accuracy of the large scale flow upstream of the zone, terrain resolution, grid scale, boundary layer parameterizations of stability, cumulus parameterizations, and microphysics schemes. This dissertation explores several of these issues with the aforementioned observations and with the Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) model simulations of selected SPCZ events. This dissertation first explains the conceptual models of the flow patterns related to the genesis of the SPCZ in light of other well-documented topographically-generated zones. The study then explores the links between the theoretical models and observations of the SPCZ in several episodes. With this foundation, the dissertation then tests several hypotheses relating to the horizontal and vertical zone structure, topographic sensitivity on the zone structure, and boundary layer evolution of the zone through the use of high resolution nested grid numerical simulations. The SPCZ consists of windward and leeward flow regimes in Idaho which form under low Froude number (stable blocked flow) in a post cold-frontal environment. The SPCZ is a weak baroclinic feature. The formation of the zone is independent of the vertical wind shear in the middle to upper troposphere. With a grid scale of 4 km, the WRF-ARW model adequately reproduces the post cold-frontal environment, windward and leeward convergence zones, relative vertical vorticity belts, and precipitation bands in several SPCZ cases. The vertical structure of the SPCZ reveals upright reflectivity towers with circulations that tilt slightly with height into the colder air aloft. Topographic sensitivity analyses of the SPCZ indicate that the terrain-driven circulations and resulting snow bands are more defined at the finer terrain scales. The ambient horizontal wind shear in the tributary valleys of the Central Mountains creates potential vorticity (PV) banners. The PV banner maintenance and strength are directly tied to the terrain resolution. An environment of convective instability sometimes occurs as a layer of air is lifted along the gentle elevation rise of the eastern Magic Valley and lower plain. An environment of inertial instability forms within the anticyclonic (negative) vorticity belts in the upper plain. Potential symmetric instability (PSI) may be released in a moist environment near the vorticity banners. The planetary boundary layer perturbed by the SPCZ inside the Snake River Plain is characterized by a deeper mixed layer with stronger vertical motions relative to a PBL in a sheltered valley outside the plain. Finally, a 10-year antecedent synoptic climatology of 78 SPCZ events reveals two pattern types: Type N (wet and warm) and Type S (dry and cold). The 40° N parallel divides these two synoptic patterns.

Synoptic-scale and mesoscale environments conducive to forest fires during the October 2003 extreme fire event in Southern California

Treesearch

Chenjie Huang; Y.L. Lin; M.L. Kaplan; Joseph J.J. Charney

2009-01-01

This study has employed both observational data and numerical simulation results to diagnose the synoptic-scale and mesoscale environments conducive to forest fires during the October 2003 extreme fire event in southern California. A three-stage process is proposed to illustrate the coupling of the synoptic-scale forcing that is evident from the observations,...

Evidence for gap flows in the Birch Creek Valley, Idaho

Treesearch

D. Finn; B. Reese; B. Butler; N. Wagenbrenner; K. L. Clawson; J. Rich; E. Russell; Z. Gao; H. Liu

2016-01-01

A field study was conducted of flows in the Birch Creek Valley in eastern Idaho. There is a distinct topographic constriction in the Birch Creek Valley that creates two subbasins: an upper and lower valley. The data were classified into one of three groups based on synoptic influence (weak/absent, high wind speeds, and other evidence of synoptic influence). Gap flows...

Winter NH low-frequency variability in a hierarchy of low-order stochastic dynamical models of earth-atmosphere system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Nan

2018-02-01

The origin of winter Northern Hemispheric low-frequency variability (hereafter, LFV) is regarded to be related to the coupled earth-atmosphere system characterized by the interaction of the jet stream with mid-latitude mountain ranges. On the other hand, observed LFV usually appears as transitions among multiple planetary-scale flow regimes of Northern Hemisphere like NAO + , AO +, AO - and NAO - . Moreover, the interaction between synoptic-scale eddies and the planetary-scale disturbance is also inevitable in the origin of LFV. These raise a question regarding how to incorporate all these aspects into just one framework to demonstrate (1) a planetary-scale dynamics of interaction of the jet stream with mid-latitude mountain ranges can really produce LFV, (2) such a dynamics can be responsible for the existence of above multiple flow regimes, and (3) the role of interaction with eddy is also clarified. For this purpose, a hierarchy of low-order stochastic dynamical models of the coupled earth-atmosphere system derived empirically from different timescale ranges of indices of Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific/North American (PNA), and length of day (LOD) and related probability density function (PDF) analysis are employed in this study. The results seem to suggest that the origin of LFV cannot be understood completely within the planetary-scale dynamics of the interaction of the jet stream with mid-latitude mountain ranges, because (1) the existence of multiple flow regimes such as NAO+, AO+, AO- and NAO- resulted from processes with timescales much longer than LFV itself, which may have underlying dynamics other than topography-jet stream interaction, and (2) we find LFV seems not necessarily to come directly from the planetary-scale dynamics of the interaction of the jet stream with mid-latitude mountain, although it can produce similar oscillatory behavior. The feedback/forcing of synoptic-scale eddies on the planetary-scale dynamics seems to play a more essential role in its origin.

A Model Based Analysis of the Role of an Upper-Level Front and Stratospheric Intrusion in the Mack Lake Fire

Treesearch

Tarisa K. Zimet; Jonathan E. Martin

2003-01-01

Meteorological assessment of wildfire risk has traditionally involved identification of several synoptic types empirically determined to influence wildfire spread. Such weather types are characterized by identifiable synoptic-scale structures and processes. Schroeder et. al. (1964) identified four recognizable synoptic-scale patterns that contribute most frequently to...

Contrasting environments associated with storm prediction center tornado outbreak forecasts using synoptic-scale composite analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, Alyssa Victoria

Tornado outbreaks have significant human impact, so it is imperative forecasts of these phenomena are accurate. As a synoptic setup lays the foundation for a forecast, synoptic-scale aspects of Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outbreak forecasts of varying accuracy were assessed. The percentages of the number of tornado outbreaks within SPC 10% tornado probability polygons were calculated. False alarm events were separately considered. The outbreaks were separated into quartiles using a point-in-polygon algorithm. Statistical composite fields were created to represent the synoptic conditions of these groups and facilitate comparison. Overall, temperature advection had the greatest differences between the groups. Additionally, there were significant differences in the jet streak strengths and amounts of vertical wind shear. The events forecasted with low accuracy consisted of the weakest synoptic-scale setups. These results suggest it is possible that events with weak synoptic setups should be regarded as areas of concern by tornado outbreak forecasters.

Combining dispersion modelling with synoptic patterns to understand the wind-borne transport into the UK of the bluetongue disease vector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burgin, Laura; Ekström, Marie; Dessai, Suraje

2017-07-01

Bluetongue, an economically important animal disease, can be spread over long distances by carriage of insect vectors ( Culicoides biting midges) on the wind. The weather conditions which influence the midge's flight are controlled by synoptic scale atmospheric circulations. A method is proposed that links wind-borne dispersion of the insects to synoptic circulation through the use of a dispersion model in combination with principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis. We illustrate how to identify the main synoptic situations present during times of midge incursions into the UK from the European continent. A PCA was conducted on high-pass-filtered mean sea-level pressure data for a domain centred over north-west Europe from 2005 to 2007. A clustering algorithm applied to the PCA scores indicated the data should be divided into five classes for which averages were calculated, providing a classification of the main synoptic types present. Midge incursion events were found to mainly occur in two synoptic categories; 64.8% were associated with a pattern displaying a pressure gradient over the North Atlantic leading to moderate south-westerly flow over the UK and 17.9% of the events occurred when high pressure dominated the region leading to south-easterly or easterly winds. The winds indicated by the pressure maps generally compared well against observations from a surface station and analysis charts. This technique could be used to assess frequency and timings of incursions of virus into new areas on seasonal and decadal timescales, currently not possible with other dispersion or biological modelling methods.

Dispersion in deep polar firn driven by synoptic-scale surface pressure variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buizert, Christo; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.

2016-09-01

Commonly, three mechanisms of firn air transport are distinguished: molecular diffusion, advection, and near-surface convective mixing. Here we identify and describe a fourth mechanism, namely dispersion driven by synoptic-scale surface pressure variability (or barometric pumping). We use published gas chromatography experiments on firn samples to derive the along-flow dispersivity of firn, and combine this dispersivity with a dynamical air pressure propagation model forced by surface air pressure time series to estimate the magnitude of dispersive mixing in the firn. We show that dispersion dominates mixing within the firn lock-in zone. Trace gas concentrations measured in firn air samples from various polar sites confirm that dispersive mixing occurs. Including dispersive mixing in a firn air transport model suggests that our theoretical estimates have the correct order of magnitude, yet may overestimate the true dispersion. We further show that strong barometric pumping, such as at the Law Dome site, may reduce the gravitational enrichment of δ15N-N2 and other tracers below gravitational equilibrium, questioning the traditional definition of the lock-in depth as the depth where δ15N enrichment ceases. Last, we propose that 86Kr excess may act as a proxy for past synoptic activity (or paleo-storminess) at the site.

A Synoptic Weather Typing Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Meteorological and Hydrological Risks at Local Scale in South-Central Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Chad Shouquan; Li, Qian; Li, Guilong

2010-05-01

The synoptic weather typing approach has become popular in evaluating the impacts of climate change on a variety of environmental problems. One of the reasons is its ability to categorize a complex set of meteorological variables as a coherent index, which can facilitate analyses of local climate change impacts. The weather typing method has been applied in Environment Canada to analyze climatic change impacts on various meteorological/hydrological risks, such as freezing rain, heavy rainfall, high-/low-flow events, air pollution, and human health. These studies comprise of three major parts: (1) historical simulation modeling to verify the hazardous events, (2) statistical downscaling to provide station-scale future climate information, and (3) estimates of changes in frequency and magnitude of future hazardous meteorological/hydrological events in this century. To achieve these goals, in addition to synoptic weather typing, the modeling conceptualizations in meteorology and hydrology and various linear/nonlinear regression techniques were applied. Furthermore, a formal model result verification process has been built into the entire modeling exercise. The results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables predicted by the models, showed very good agreement. This paper will briefly summarize these research projects, focusing on the modeling exercise and results.

Atmospheric circulation types and daily mortality in Athens, Greece.

PubMed Central

Kassomenos, P; Gryparis, A; Samoli, E; Katsouyanni, K; Lykoudis, S; Flocas, H A

2001-01-01

We investigated the short-term effects of synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric circulation types on mortality in Athens, Greece. The synoptic patterns in the lower troposphere were classified in 8 a priori defined categories. The mesoscale weather types were classified into 11 categories, using meteorologic parameters from the Athens area surface monitoring network; the daily number of deaths was available for 1987-1991. We applied generalized additive models (GAM), extending Poisson regression, using a LOESS smoother to control for the confounding effects of seasonal patterns. We adjusted for long-term trends, day of the week, ambient particle concentrations, and additional temperature effects. Both classifications, synoptic and mesoscale, explain the daily variation of mortality to a statistically significant degree. The highest daily mortality was observed on days characterized by southeasterly flow [increase 10%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 6.1-13.9% compared to the high-low pressure system), followed by zonal flow (5.8%; 95% CI, 1.8-10%). The high-low pressure system and the northwesterly flow are associated with the lowest mortality. The seasonal patterns are consistent with the annual pattern. For mesoscale categories, in the cold period the highest mortality is observed during days characterized by the easterly flow category (increase 9.4%; 95% CI, 1.0-18.5% compared to flow without the main component). In the warm period, the highest mortality occurs during the strong southerly flow category (8.5% increase; 95% CI, 2.0-15.4% compared again to flow without the main component). Adjusting for ambient particle levels leaves the estimated associations unchanged for the synoptic categories and slightly increases the effects of mesoscale categories. In conclusion, synoptic and mesoscale weather classification is a useful tool for studying the weather-health associations in a warm Mediterranean climate situation. PMID:11445513

Synoptic meteorological modes of variability for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality in major metropolitan regions of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, Danny M.; Tai, Amos P. K.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Moch, Jonathan M.; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Shen, Lu; Martin, Randall V.

2018-05-01

In his study, we use a combination of multivariate statistical methods to understand the relationships of PM2.5 with local meteorology and synoptic weather patterns in different regions of China across various timescales. Using June 2014 to May 2017 daily total PM2.5 observations from ˜ 1500 monitors, all deseasonalized and detrended to focus on synoptic-scale variations, we find strong correlations of daily PM2.5 with all selected meteorological variables (e.g., positive correlation with temperature but negative correlation with sea-level pressure throughout China; positive and negative correlation with relative humidity in northern and southern China, respectively). The spatial patterns suggest that the apparent correlations with individual meteorological variables may arise from common association with synoptic systems. Based on a principal component analysis of 1998-2017 meteorological data to diagnose distinct meteorological modes that dominate synoptic weather in four major regions of China, we find strong correlations of PM2.5 with several synoptic modes that explain 10 to 40 % of daily PM2.5 variability. These modes include monsoonal flows and cold frontal passages in northern and central China associated with the Siberian High, onshore flows in eastern China, and frontal rainstorms in southern China. Using the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region as a case study, we further find strong interannual correlations of regionally averaged satellite-derived annual mean PM2.5 with annual mean relative humidity (RH; positive) and springtime fluctuation frequency of the Siberian High (negative). We apply the resulting PM2.5-to-climate sensitivities to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate projections to predict future PM2.5 by the 2050s due to climate change, and find a modest decrease of ˜ 0.5 µg m-3 in annual mean PM2.5 in the BTH region due to more frequent cold frontal ventilation under the RCP8.5 future, representing a small climate benefit, but the RH-induced PM2.5 change is inconclusive due to the large inter-model differences in RH projections.

The life cycles of intense cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation systems observed over oceans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Phillip J.

1993-01-01

Full attention was now directed to the blocking case studies mentioned in previous reports. Coding and initial computational tests were completed for a North Atlantic blocking case that occurred in late October/early November 1985 and an upstream cyclone that developed rapidly 24 hours before block onset. This work is the subject of two papers accepted for presentation at the International Symposium on the Lifecycles of Extratropical Cyclones in Bergen, Norway, 27 June - 1 July 1994. This effort is currently highlighted by two features. The first is the extension of the Zwack-Okossi equation, originally formulated for the diagnosis of surface wave development, for application at any pressure level. The second is the separation of the basic large-scale analysis fields into synoptic-scale and planetary-scale components, using a two-dimensional Shapiro filter, and the corresponding partitioning of the Zwack-Okossi equation into synoptic-scale, planetary-scale, and synoptic/planetary-scale interaction terms. Preliminary tests suggest substantial contribution from the synoptic-scale and interaction terms.

Synoptic scale forecast skill and systematic errors in the MASS 2.0 model. [Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koch, S. E.; Skillman, W. C.; Kocin, P. J.; Wetzel, P. J.; Brill, K. F.

1985-01-01

The synoptic scale performance characteristics of MASS 2.0 are determined by comparing filtered 12-24 hr model forecasts to same-case forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's synoptic-scale Limited-area Fine Mesh model. Characteristics of the two systems are contrasted, and the analysis methodology used to determine statistical skill scores and systematic errors is described. The overall relative performance of the two models in the sample is documented, and important systematic errors uncovered are presented.

Regime Behavior in Paleo-Reconstructed Streamflow: Attributions to Atmospheric Dynamics, Synoptic Circulation and Large-Scale Climate Teleconnection Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

2017-12-01

Studies have shown that streamflow behavior and dynamics have a significant link with climate and climate variability. Patterns of persistent regime behavior from extended streamflow records in many watersheds justify investigating large-scale climate mechanisms as potential drivers of hydrologic regime behavior and streamflow variability. Understanding such streamflow-climate relationships is crucial to forecasting/simulation systems and the planning and management of water resources. In this study, hidden Markov models are used with reconstructed streamflow to detect regime-like behaviors - the hidden states - and state transition phenomena. Individual extreme events and their spatial variability across the basin are then verified with the identified states. Wavelet analysis is performed to examine the signals over time in the streamflow records. Joint analyses of the climatic data in the 20th century and the identified states are undertaken to better understand the hydroclimatic connections within the basin as well as important teleconnections that influence water supply. Compositing techniques are used to identify atmospheric circulation patterns associated with identified states of streamflow. The grouping of such synoptic patterns and their frequency are then examined. Sliding time-window correlation analysis and cross-wavelet spectral analysis are performed to establish the synchronicity of basin flows to the identified synoptic and teleconnection patterns. The Missouri River Basin (MRB) is examined in this study, both as a means of better understanding the synoptic climate controls in this important watershed and as a case study for the techniques developed here. Initial wavelet analyses of reconstructed streamflow at major gauges in the MRB show multidecadal cycles in regime behavior.

Simulations of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal with a High-Resolution Model: Sensitivity to Large-Scale Boundary Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, Anil; Done, James; Dudhia, Jimy; Niyogi, Dev

2011-01-01

The predictability of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal was explored in terms of track and intensity using the Advanced Research Hurricane Weather Research Forecast (AHW) model. This constitutes the first application of the AHW over an area that lies outside the region of the North Atlantic for which this model was developed and tested. Several experiments were conducted to understand the possible contributing factors that affected Sidr s intensity and track simulation by varying the initial start time and domain size. Results show that Sidr s track was strongly controlled by the synoptic flow at the 500-hPa level, seen especially due to the strong mid-latitude westerly over north-central India. A 96-h forecast produced westerly winds over north-central India at the 500-hPa level that were notably weaker; this likely caused the modeled cyclone track to drift from the observed actual track. Reducing the model domain size reduced model error in the synoptic-scale winds at 500 hPa and produced an improved cyclone track. Specifically, the cyclone track appeared to be sensitive to the upstream synoptic flow, and was, therefore, sensitive to the location of the western boundary of the domain. However, cyclone intensity remained largely unaffected by this synoptic wind error at the 500-hPa level. Comparison of the high resolution, moving nested domain with a single coarser resolution domain showed little difference in tracks, but resulted in significantly different intensities. Experiments on the domain size with regard to the total precipitation simulated by the model showed that precipitation patterns and 10-m surface winds were also different. This was mainly due to the mid-latitude westerly flow across the west side of the model domain. The analysis also suggested that the total precipitation pattern and track was unchanged when the domain was extended toward the east, north, and south. Furthermore, this highlights our conclusion that Sidr was influenced from the west side of the domain. The displacement error was significantly reduced after the domain size from the western model boundary was decreased. Study results demonstrate the capability and need of a high-resolution mesoscale modeling framework for simulating the complex interactions that contribute to the formation of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal region

Resolution dependence of cross-tropopause ozone transport over east Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Büker, M. L.; Hitchman, Matthew H.; Tripoli, Gregory J.; Pierce, R. B.; Browell, E. V.; Avery, M. A.

2005-02-01

Detailed analysis of mesoscale transport of ozone across the tropopause over east Asia during the spring of 2001 is conducted using regional simulations with the University of Wisconsin Nonhydrostatic Modeling System (UWNMS), in situ flight data, and a new two-scale approach to diagnosing this ozone flux. From late February to early April, synoptic activity regularly deformed the tropopause, leading to observations of ozone-rich (concentration exceeding 80 ppbv) stratospheric intrusions and filaments at tropospheric altitudes. Since model resolution is generally not sufficient to capture detailed small-scale mixing processes, an upper bound on the flux is proposed by assuming that there exists a dynamical division by spatial scale, above which the wind conservatively advects large-scale structures, while below it the wind leads to irreversible transport through nonconservative random strain. A formulation for this diagnosis is given and applied to ozone flux across the dynamical tropopause. Simulations were chosen to correspond with DC-8 flight 15 on 26-27 March over east Asia during the Transport and Chemical Evolution Over the Pacific (TRACE-P) campaign. Local and domain-averaged flux values using this method agree with other numerical and observational studies in similar synoptic environments. Sensitivity to numerical resolution, prescribed divisional spatial scale, and potential vorticity (PV) level is investigated. Divergent residual flow in regions of high ozone, and PV gradients tended to maximize flux magnitudes. We estimated the domain-integrated flow of ozone out of the lowermost stratosphere to be about 0.127 Tg/day. Spectral analysis of the wind field lends support for utilization of this dynamical division in this methodology.

Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars’ Southern Extratropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

2017-10-01

Between late fall and early spring, Mars’ middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars Southern Extratropics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

2017-01-01

Between late fall and early spring, Mars' middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

North Atlantic weather regimes: A synoptic study of phase space. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orrhede, Anna Karin

1990-01-01

In the phase space of weather, low frequency variability (LFV) of the atmosphere can be captured in a large scale subspace, where a trajectory connects consecutive large scale weather maps, thus revealing flow changes and recurrences. Using this approach, Vautard applied the trajectory speed minimization method (Vautard and Legras) to atmospheric data. From 37 winters of 700 mb geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic and the adjacent land masses, four persistent and recurrent weather patterns, interpreted as weather regimes, were discernable: a blocking regime, a zonal regime, a Greenland anticyclone regime, and an Atlantic regime. These regimes are studied further in terms of maintenance and transitions. A regime survey unveils preferences regarding event durations and precursors for the onset or break of an event. The transition frequencies between regimes vary, and together with the transition times, suggest the existence of easier transition routes. These matters are more systematically studied using complete synoptic map sequences from a number of events.

Statistical characteristics of mudflows in the piedmont areas of Uzbekistan and the role of the synoptic processes for the formation of mudflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mamadjanova, Gavkhar; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2016-04-01

Mudflows are formed almost every year in the territory of Uzbekistan and neighbouring countries. They represent a major threat to human life and settlements and can significantly damage infrastructure. In general, in addition to elevated soil moisture conditions, severe local rainfall events (e.g., 15 mm of precipitation in 12 hours) and associated air temperature conditions are understood to be the main factors in the formation of mudflows in the piedmont areas of Uzbekistan. The main purpose of this study is to understand factors on local and synoptic to hemispheric scales, which cause mudflow variability on interannual and longer time scales. To fulfil this objective, in a first step historical data of mudflow occurrences (mainly March to August) in Uzbekistan provided by the Centre of Hydro-meteorological Service of the Republic of Uzbekistan (Uzhydromet) for more than 140 years are statistically analysed. During the investigation period a total of around 3000 mudflow events were observed with about 21 events per year on average and a maximum of 168 mudflows in 1930. To understand principle factors steering the variability of mudflow occurrences, synoptic scale circulation weather types (CWT) over Central Asia and Uzbekistan are investigated. The majority of mudflows (22%) occur during the advection of westerly airflow when moist air from Central and Southern Europe reaches Uzbekistan. This objectively classified synoptic situation can be related to one of the 15 primary synoptic circulation types over the Central Asia and Uzbekistan which were subjectively derived by Bugayev and Giorgio in 1930-40s (Bugayev et al., 1957), thus confirming the validity of this approach. By means of the CWT approach, we further analyse that on mudflow-days the frequencies of cyclonic, westerly, south-westerly and north-westerly stream flows are increased in comparison to the climatological frequency of occurrence of these circulation weather types. Details of the necessary and sufficient meteorological conditions within a CWT class are investigated. Further studies will investigate and identify key factors steering the variability in CWT frequency variability over Central Asia on longer timescales and how these are related to known major variability modes in the climate system.

Effects of flow regime on metal concentrations and the attainment of water quality standards in a remediated stream reach, Butte, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runkel, Robert L.; Kimball, Briant A.; Nimick, David A.; Walton-Day, Katherine

2016-01-01

Low-flow synoptic sampling campaigns are often used as the primary tool to characterize watersheds affected by mining. Although such campaigns are an invaluable part of site characterization, investigations which focus solely on low-flow conditions may yield misleading results. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate this point and elucidate the mechanisms responsible for the release of metals during rainfall runoff. This objective is addressed using data from diel and synoptic sampling campaigns conducted over a two-day period. Low-flow synoptic sampling results indicate that concentrations of most constituents meet aquatic standards. This finding is in contrast to findings from a diel sampling campaign that captured dramatic increases in concentrations during rainfall runoff. Concentrations during the rising limb of the hydrograph were 2–23 times concentrations observed during synoptic sampling (most increases were >10-fold), remaining elevated during the receding limb of the hydrograph to produce a clockwise hysteresis loop. Hydrologic mechanisms responsible for the release of metals include increased transport due to resuspension of streambed solids, erosion of alluvial tailings, and overland flow. Rainfall also elevated the alluvial groundwater table and increased infiltration through the vadose zone, likely resulting in dissolution from alluvial tailings that were dry prior to the event.

Synoptic sampling and principal components analysis to identify sources of water and metals to an acid mine drainage stream.

PubMed

Byrne, Patrick; Runkel, Robert L; Walton-Day, Katherine

2017-07-01

Combining the synoptic mass balance approach with principal components analysis (PCA) can be an effective method for discretising the chemistry of inflows and source areas in watersheds where contamination is diffuse in nature and/or complicated by groundwater interactions. This paper presents a field-scale study in which synoptic sampling and PCA are employed in a mineralized watershed (Lion Creek, Colorado, USA) under low flow conditions to (i) quantify the impacts of mining activity on stream water quality; (ii) quantify the spatial pattern of constituent loading; and (iii) identify inflow sources most responsible for observed changes in stream chemistry and constituent loading. Several of the constituents investigated (Al, Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn) fail to meet chronic aquatic life standards along most of the study reach. The spatial pattern of constituent loading suggests four primary sources of contamination under low flow conditions. Three of these sources are associated with acidic (pH <3.1) seeps that enter along the left bank of Lion Creek. Investigation of inflow water (trace metal and major ion) chemistry using PCA suggests a hydraulic connection between many of the left bank inflows and mine water in the Minnesota Mine shaft located to the north-east of the river channel. In addition, water chemistry data during a rainfall-runoff event suggests the spatial pattern of constituent loading may be modified during rainfall due to dissolution of efflorescent salts or erosion of streamside tailings. These data point to the complexity of contaminant mobilisation processes and constituent loading in mining-affected watersheds but the combined synoptic sampling and PCA approach enables a conceptual model of contaminant dynamics to be developed to inform remediation.

Synoptic Sampling to Determine Distributed Groundwater-Surface Water Nitrate Loading and Removal Potential Along a Lowland River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pai, Henry; Villamizar, Sandra R.; Harmon, Thomas C.

2017-11-01

Delineating pollutant reactive transport pathways that connect local land use patterns to surface water is an important goal. This work illustrates high-resolution river mapping of salinity or specific conductance (SC) and nitrate (NO3-) as a potential part of achieving this goal. We observed longitudinal river SC and nitrate distributions using high-resolution synoptic in situ sensing along the lower Merced River (38 river km) in Central California (USA) from 2010 to 2012. We calibrated a distributed groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) discharge model for a conservative solute using 13 synoptic SC sampling events at flows ranging from 1.3 to 31.6 m3 s-1. Nitrogen loads ranged from 0.3 to 1.6 kg N d-1 and were greater following an extended high flow period during a wet winter. Applying the distributed GW-SW discharge estimates to a simplistic reactive nitrate transport model, the model reproduced observed river nitrate distribution well (RRMSE = 5-21%), with dimensionless watershed-averaged nitrate removal (kt) ranging from 0 to 0.43. Estimates were uncertain due to GW nitrate data variability, but the resulting range was consistent with prior removal estimates. At the segment scale, estimated GW-SW nitrate loading ranged from 0 to 17 g NO3- s-1 km-1. Local loading peaked near the middle of the study reach, a location that coincides with a shallow clay lens and with confined animal feed operations in close proximity to the river. Overall, the results demonstrate the potential for high-resolution synoptic monitoring to support GW-SW modeling efforts aimed at understanding and managing nonpoint source pollution.

Synoptic sampling and principal components analysis to identify sources of water and metals to an acid mine drainage stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Byrne, Patrick; Runkel, Robert L.; Walton-Day, Katie

2017-01-01

Combining the synoptic mass balance approach with principal components analysis (PCA) can be an effective method for discretising the chemistry of inflows and source areas in watersheds where contamination is diffuse in nature and/or complicated by groundwater interactions. This paper presents a field-scale study in which synoptic sampling and PCA are employed in a mineralized watershed (Lion Creek, Colorado, USA) under low flow conditions to (i) quantify the impacts of mining activity on stream water quality; (ii) quantify the spatial pattern of constituent loading; and (iii) identify inflow sources most responsible for observed changes in stream chemistry and constituent loading. Several of the constituents investigated (Al, Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn) fail to meet chronic aquatic life standards along most of the study reach. The spatial pattern of constituent loading suggests four primary sources of contamination under low flow conditions. Three of these sources are associated with acidic (pH <3.1) seeps that enter along the left bank of Lion Creek. Investigation of inflow water (trace metal and major ion) chemistry using PCA suggests a hydraulic connection between many of the left bank inflows and mine water in the Minnesota Mine shaft located to the north-east of the river channel. In addition, water chemistry data during a rainfall-runoff event suggests the spatial pattern of constituent loading may be modified during rainfall due to dissolution of efflorescent salts or erosion of streamside tailings. These data point to the complexity of contaminant mobilisation processes and constituent loading in mining-affected watersheds but the combined synoptic sampling and PCA approach enables a conceptual model of contaminant dynamics to be developed to inform remediation.

A synoptic climatology of derecho producing mesoscale convective systems in the North-Central Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bentley, Mace L.; Mote, Thomas L.; Byrd, Stephen F.

2000-09-01

Synoptic-scale environments favourable for producing derechos, or widespread convectively induced windstorms, in the North-Central Plains are examined with the goal of providing pattern-recognition/diagnosis techniques. Fifteen derechos were identified across the North-Central Plains region during 1986-1995. The synoptic environment at the initiation, mid-point and decay of each derecho was then evaluated using surface, upper-air and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis datasets.Results suggest that the synoptic environment is critical in maintaining derecho producing mesoscale convective systems (DMCSs). The synoptic environment in place downstream of the MCS initiation region determines the movement and potential strength of the system. Circulation around surface low pressure increased the instability gradient and maximized leading edge convergence in the initiation region of nearly all events regardless of DMCS location or movement. Other commonalities in the environments of these events include the presence of a weak thermal boundary, high convective instability and a layer of dry low-to-mid-tropospheric air. Of the two corridors sampled, northeastward moving derechos tend to initiate east of synoptic-scale troughs, while southeastward moving derechos form on the northeast periphery of a synoptic-scale ridge. Other differences between these two DMCS events are also discussed.

The vorticity of Solar photospheric flows on the scale of granulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pevtsov, A. A.

2016-12-01

We employ time sequences of images observed with a G-band filter (λ4305Å) by the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) on board of Hinode spacecraft at different latitude along solar central meridian to study vorticity of granular flows in quiet Sun areas during deep minimum of solar activity. Using a feature correlation tracking (FCT) technique, we calculate the vorticity of granular-scale flows. Assuming the known pattern of vertical flows (upward in granules and downward in intergranular lanes), we infer the sign of kinetic helicity of these flows. We show that the kinetic helicity of granular flows and intergranular vortices exhibits a weak hemispheric preference, which is in agreement with the action of the Coriolis force. This slight hemispheric sign asymmetry, however, is not statistically significant given large scatter in the average vorticity. The sign of the current helicity density of network magnetic fields computed using full disk vector magnetograms from the Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) does not show any hemispheric preference. The combination of these two findings suggests that the photospheric dynamo operating on the scale of granular flows is non-helical in nature.

An Investigation of Topography Modulated Low Level Moisture Convergence Patterns in the Southern Appalachians Using WRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, A. M.; Duan, Y.; Barros, A.

2015-12-01

The Southern Appalachian Mountains (SAM) region is a biodiversity hot-spot that is vulnerable to land use/land cover changes due to its proximity to the rapidly growing population in the Southeast U.S. Persistent near surface moisture and associated microclimates observed in this region have been documented since the colonization of the area. The landform in this area, in particular in the inner mountain region, is highly complex with nested valleys and ridges. The geometry of the terrain causes distinct diurnal and seasonal local flow patterns that result in highly complex interactions of this low level moisture with meso- and synoptic-scale cyclones passing through the region. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) was used to conduct high resolution simulations of several case studies of warm season precipitation in the SAM with different synoptic-scale conditions to investigate this interaction between local and larger-scale flow patterns. The aim is to elucidate the microphysical interactions among these shallow orographic clouds and preexisting precipitating cloud systems and identify uncertainties in the model microphysics using in situ measurements. Findings show that ridge-valley precipitation gradients, in particular the "reverse" to the classical orographic effect observed in inner mountain valleys, is linked to horizontal heterogeneity in the vertical structure of low level cloud and precipitation promoted through landform controls on local flow. Moisture convergence patterns follow the peaks and valleys as represented by WRF terrain, and the topography effectively controls their timing and spatial structure. The simulations support the hypothesis that ridge-valley precipitation gradients, and in particular the reverse orographic enhancement effect in inner mountain valleys, is linked to horizontal heterogeneity in the vertical structure of low level clouds and precipitation promoted through landform controls on moisture convergence.

Role of enhanced synoptic activity and its interaction with intra-seasonal oscillations on the lower extended range prediction skill during 2015 monsoon season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abhilash, S.; Mandal, R.; Dey, A.; Phani, R.; Joseph, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.; De, S.; Agarwal, N. K.; Sahai, A. K.; Devi, S. Sunitha; Rajeevan, M.

2018-01-01

Indian summer monsoon of 2015 was deficient with prominence of short-lived (long-lived) active (break) spells. The real-time extended range forecasts disseminated by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology using an indigenous ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on National Center for Environmental Predictions's climate forecast system could broadly predict these intraseasonal fluctuations at shorter time leads (i.e. up to 10 days), but failed to predict at longer leads (15-20 days). Considering the multi-scale nature of Indian Summer Monsoon system, this particular study aims to examine the inability of the EPS in predicting the active/break episodes at longer leads from the perspective of non-linear scale interaction between the synoptic, intraseasonal and seasonal scale. It is found that the 2015 monsoon season was dominated by synoptic scale disturbances that can hinder the prediction on extended range. Further, the interaction between synoptic scale disturbances and low frequency mode was prominent during the season, which might have contributed to the reduced prediction skill at longer leads.

Prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients from ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems

DOE PAGES

Taraphdar, S.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Leung, L. Ruby; ...

2016-12-05

The prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients (SSTR) such as monsoon low and depression during the boreal summer of 2007–2009 are assessed using high resolution ECMWF and NCEP TIGGE forecasts data. By analyzing 246 forecasts for lead times up to 10 days, it is found that the models have good skills in forecasting the planetary scale means but the skills of SSTR remain poor, with the latter showing no skill beyond 2 days for the global tropics and Indian region. Consistent forecast skills among precipitation, velocity potential, and vorticity provide evidence that convection is the primary process responsible formore » precipitation. The poor skills of SSTR can be attributed to the larger random error in the models as they fail to predict the locations and timings of SSTR. Strong correlation between the random error and synoptic precipitation suggests that the former starts to develop from regions of convection. As the NCEP model has larger biases of synoptic scale precipitation, it has a tendency to generate more random error that ultimately reduces the prediction skill of synoptic systems in that model. Finally, the larger biases in NCEP may be attributed to the model moist physics and/or coarser horizontal resolution compared to ECMWF.« less

Prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients from ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taraphdar, S.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Leung, L. Ruby

The prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients (SSTR) such as monsoon low and depression during the boreal summer of 2007–2009 are assessed using high resolution ECMWF and NCEP TIGGE forecasts data. By analyzing 246 forecasts for lead times up to 10 days, it is found that the models have good skills in forecasting the planetary scale means but the skills of SSTR remain poor, with the latter showing no skill beyond 2 days for the global tropics and Indian region. Consistent forecast skills among precipitation, velocity potential, and vorticity provide evidence that convection is the primary process responsible formore » precipitation. The poor skills of SSTR can be attributed to the larger random error in the models as they fail to predict the locations and timings of SSTR. Strong correlation between the random error and synoptic precipitation suggests that the former starts to develop from regions of convection. As the NCEP model has larger biases of synoptic scale precipitation, it has a tendency to generate more random error that ultimately reduces the prediction skill of synoptic systems in that model. Finally, the larger biases in NCEP may be attributed to the model moist physics and/or coarser horizontal resolution compared to ECMWF.« less

OLYMPEX Data Workshop: GPM View

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petersen, W.

2017-01-01

OLYMPEX Primary Objectives: Datasets to enable: (1) Direct validation over complex terrain at multiple scales, liquid and frozen precip types, (a) Do we capture terrain and synoptic regime transitions, orographic enhancements/structure, full range of precipitation intensity (e.g., very light to heavy) and types, spatial variability? (b) How well can we estimate space/time-accumulated precipitation over terrain (liquid + frozen)? (2) Physical validation of algorithms in mid-latitude cold season frontal systems over ocean and complex terrain, (a) What are the column properties of frozen, melting, liquid hydrometeors-their relative contributions to estimated surface precipitation, transition under the influence of terrain gradients, and systematic variability as a function of synoptic regime? (3) Integrated hydrologic validation in complex terrain, (a) Can satellite estimates be combined with modeling over complex topography to drive improved products (assimilation, downscaling) [Level IV products] (b) What are capabilities and limitations for use of satellite-based precipitation estimates in stream/river flow forecasting?

Impact of large-scale dynamics on the microphysical properties of midlatitude cirrus

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muhlbauer, Andreas; Ackerman, Thomas P.; Comstock, Jennifer M.

2014-04-16

In situ microphysical observations 3 of mid-latitude cirrus collected during the Department of Energy Small Particles in Cirrus (SPAR-TICUS) field campaign are combined with an atmospheric state classification for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site to understand statistical relationships between cirrus microphysics and the large-scale meteorology. The atmospheric state classification is informed about the large-scale meteorology and state of cloudiness at the ARM SGP site by combining ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data with 14 years of continuous observations from the millimeter-wavelength cloud radar. Almost half of the cirrus cloud occurrences in the vicinity of the ARM SGPmore » site during SPARTICUS can be explained by three distinct synoptic condi- tions, namely upper-level ridges, mid-latitude cyclones with frontal systems and subtropical flows. Probability density functions (PDFs) of cirrus micro- physical properties such as particle size distributions (PSDs), ice number con- centrations and ice water content (IWC) are examined and exhibit striking differences among the different synoptic regimes. Generally, narrower PSDs with lower IWC but higher ice number concentrations are found in cirrus sam- pled in upper-level ridges whereas cirrus sampled in subtropical flows, fronts and aged anvils show broader PSDs with considerably lower ice number con- centrations but higher IWC. Despite striking contrasts in the cirrus micro- physics for different large-scale environments, the PDFs of vertical velocity are not different, suggesting that vertical velocity PDFs are a poor predic-tor for explaining the microphysical variability in cirrus. Instead, cirrus mi- crophysical contrasts may be driven by differences in ice supersaturations or aerosols.« less

Interannual rainfall variability and SOM-based circulation classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolski, Piotr; Jack, Christopher; Tadross, Mark; van Aardenne, Lisa; Lennard, Christopher

2018-01-01

Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) based classifications of synoptic circulation patterns are increasingly being used to interpret large-scale drivers of local climate variability, and as part of statistical downscaling methodologies. These applications rely on a basic premise of synoptic climatology, i.e. that local weather is conditioned by the large-scale circulation. While it is clear that this relationship holds in principle, the implications of its implementation through SOM-based classification, particularly at interannual and longer time scales, are not well recognized. Here we use a SOM to understand the interannual synoptic drivers of climate variability at two locations in the winter and summer rainfall regimes of South Africa. We quantify the portion of variance in seasonal rainfall totals that is explained by year to year differences in the synoptic circulation, as schematized by a SOM. We furthermore test how different spatial domain sizes and synoptic variables affect the ability of the SOM to capture the dominant synoptic drivers of interannual rainfall variability. Additionally, we identify systematic synoptic forcing that is not captured by the SOM classification. The results indicate that the frequency of synoptic states, as schematized by a relatively disaggregated SOM (7 × 9) of prognostic atmospheric variables, including specific humidity, air temperature and geostrophic winds, captures only 20-45% of interannual local rainfall variability, and that the residual variance contains a strong systematic component. Utilising a multivariate linear regression framework demonstrates that this residual variance can largely be explained using synoptic variables over a particular location; even though they are used in the development of the SOM their influence, however, diminishes with the size of the SOM spatial domain. The influence of the SOM domain size, the choice of SOM atmospheric variables and grid-point explanatory variables on the levels of explained variance, is consistent with the general understanding of the dominant processes and atmospheric variables that affect rainfall variability at a particular location.

Application of Satellite-Derived Atmospheric Motion Vectors for Estimating Mesoscale Flows.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedka, Kristopher M.; Mecikalski, John R.

2005-11-01

This study demonstrates methods to obtain high-density, satellite-derived atmospheric motion vectors (AMV) that contain both synoptic-scale and mesoscale flow components associated with and induced by cumuliform clouds through adjustments made to the University of Wisconsin—Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS) AMV processing algorithm. Operational AMV processing is geared toward the identification of synoptic-scale motions in geostrophic balance, which are useful in data assimilation applications. AMVs identified in the vicinity of deep convection are often rejected by quality-control checks used in the production of operational AMV datasets. Few users of these data have considered the use of AMVs with ageostrophic flow components, which often fail checks that assure both spatial coherence between neighboring AMVs and a strong correlation to an NWP-model first-guess wind field. The UW-CIMSS algorithm identifies coherent cloud and water vapor features (i.e., targets) that can be tracked within a sequence of geostationary visible (VIS) and infrared (IR) imagery. AMVs are derived through the combined use of satellite feature tracking and an NWP-model first guess. Reducing the impact of the NWP-model first guess on the final AMV field, in addition to adjusting the target selection and vector-editing schemes, is found to result in greater than a 20-fold increase in the number of AMVs obtained from the UW-CIMSS algorithm for one convective storm case examined here. Over a three-image sequence of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-12 VIS and IR data, 3516 AMVs are obtained, most of which contain flow components that deviate considerably from geostrophy. In comparison, 152 AMVs are derived when a tighter NWP-model constraint and no targeting adjustments were imposed, similar to settings used with operational AMV production algorithms. A detailed analysis reveals that many of these 3516 vectors contain low-level (100 70 kPa) convergent and midlevel (70 40 kPa) to upper-level (40 10 kPa) divergent motion components consistent with localized mesoscale flow patterns. The applicability of AMVs for estimating cloud-top cooling rates at the 1-km pixel scale is demonstrated with excellent correspondence to rates identified by a human expert.

Changes in Pacific Northwest Heat Waves and Associated Synoptic/Mesoscale Drivers Under Anthropogenic Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brewer, M.; Mass, C.

2014-12-01

Though western Oregon and Washington summers are typically mild due to the influence of the nearby Pacific Ocean, this region occasionally experiences heat waves with temperatures in excess of 35ºC. These heat waves can have a substantial impact on this highly populated region, particularly since the population is unaccustomed to and generally unprepared for such conditions. A comprehensive evaluation is needed of past and future heat wave trends in frequency, intensity, and duration. Furthermore, it is important to understand the physical mechanisms of Northwest heat waves and how such mechanisms might change under anthropogenic global warming. Lower-tropospheric heat waves over the west coast of North America are the result of both synoptic and mesoscale factors, the latter requiring high-resolution models (roughly 12-15 km grid spacing) to simulate. Synoptic factors include large-scale warming due to horizontal advection and subsidence, as well as reductions in large-scale cloudiness. An important mesoscale factor is the occurrence of offshore (easterly) flow, resulting in an adiabatically warmed continental air mass spreading over the western lowlands rather than the more usual cool, marine air influence. To fully understand how heat waves will change under AGW, it is necessary to determine the combined impacts of both synoptic and mesoscale effects in a warming world. General Circulation Models (GCM) are generally are too coarse to simulate mesoscale effects realistically and thus may provide unreliable estimates of the frequency and magnitudes of West Coast heat waves. Therefore, to determine the regional implications of global warming, this work made use of long-term, high-resolution WRF simulations, at 36- and 12-km resolution, produced by dynamically downscaling GCM grids. This talk will examine the predicted trends in Pacific Northwest heat wave intensity, duration, and frequency during the 21st century (through 2100). The spatial distribution in the trends in heat waves, and the variability of these trends at different resolutions and among different models will also be described. Finally, changes in the synoptic and mesoscale configurations that drive Pacific Northwest heat waves and the modulating effects of local terrain and land/water contrast will be discussed.

A new perspective on the regional hydrologic cycle over North and South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weng, Shu-Ping

The GEOS-1 vertically-integrated 3-hr moisture flux reanalyses and hourly-gridded United States station precipitation plus a satellite-based, 6-hr global precipitation estimate were employed to investigate the impacts of nocturnal low-level jets (LLJs) on the regional hydrological cycle over the central United States (Part I) and the subtropical plains of South America (Part II). Research stressed the influences of upper-level synoptic-scale waves (i.e., synoptic-scale forcings) upon the regional hydrologic processes, which were explored by the impacts associated with the occurrence of LLJ. Besides the conventional budget analysis, the adopted `synoptic-forcing approach' was proven illustrative in describing these impacts through the down-scaling process of LLJs. In Part 1, the major findings include: (1)the seasonal-averaged hydrological cycle over the Great Plains is strongly affected by the occurrence of GPLLJ, (2)the synoptic-scale forcing provided by the upper-level propagating jet (ULJ) streams is essential in generating the large-scale precipitation after the GPLLJ forms from the diurnal boundary layer process, (3)without the dynamic coupling between the ULJ and LLJ, the impact of LLJ on the hydrological cycle is demonstrated to be less important, and (4)the importance of synoptic-scale forcings in preconditioning the setting of wet/dry seasons in the interannual variability of rainfall anomaly is further illustrated by examining the changes of intensity as well as the occurrence frequency between the different types of LLJ. In Part II of this study, it was found that the occurrence of Andean LLJ represents a transient episode that detours the climatic rainfall activity along the South Atlantic Convergent Zone (SACZ) to the subtropical plains (Brazilian Nordeste) in its southwestern (northeastern) flank. The appearance of a seesaw pattern in the rainfall and flux convergence anomalies along the southeastern portion of South America, which is spatially in quadrature with the seasonal mean circulation, reflects the synoptic-scale forcing generated by the upper-level propagating transient-scale waves. In this regard, the function of the Andean LLJ in providing a scale-interaction mechanism that links the synoptic-scale setting with the localized rainfall event is the same as the GPLLJ. Due to the unique geographic background such as the narrow east-west landmass extension and the relative orientation between the Andean LLJ and the ULJ, however, the enhanced rainfall activity over the subtropical plains in response to the perturbed flux convergence is smaller than the case in the GPLLJ.

Warm-season severe wind events in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gatzen, Christoph

2013-04-01

A 15-year data set of wind measurements was analyzed with regard to warm season severe wind gusts in Germany. For April to September of the years 1997 to 2011, 1035 wind measurements of 26 m/s or greater were found. These wind reports were associated with 268 wind events. In total, 252 convective wind events contributed to 837 (81%) of the wind reports, 16 non-convective synoptic-scale wind events contributed to 198 reports (19%). Severe wind events were found with synoptic situations characterized by rather strong mid-level flow and advancing mid-level troughs. Severe convective wind events were analyzed using radar images and classified with respect to the observed radar structure. The most important convective mode was squall lines that were associated with one third of all severe wind gusts, followed by groups, bow echo complexes, and bow echoes. Supercells and cells were not associated with many wind reports. The low contribution of isolated cells indicates that rather large-scale forcing by synoptic-scale features like fronts is important for German severe wind events. Bow echoes were found to be present for 58% of all wind reports. The movement speed of bow echoes indicated a large variation with a maximum speed of 33 m/s. Extreme wind events as well as events with more than 15 wind reports were found to be related to higher movement speeds. Concentrating on the most intense events, derechos seem to be very important to the warm season wind threat in Germany. Convective events with a path length of more than 400 km contributed to 36% of all warm-season wind gusts in this data set. Furthermore, eight of nine extreme gusts exceeding 40 m/s were recorded with derecho events.

Baroclinic instability with variable static stability - A design study for a spherical atmospheric model experiment. [for Spacelab flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Giere, A. C.; Fowlis, W. W.

1980-01-01

The effect of a radially-variable, dielectric body force, analogous to gravity on baroclinic instability for the design of a spherical, synoptic-scale, atmospheric model experiment in a Spacelab flight is investigated. Exact solutions are examined for quasi-geostrophic baroclinic instability in which the rotational Froude number is a linear function of the height. Flow in a rotating rectilinear channel with a vertically variable body force without horizontal shear of the basic state is also discussed.

Forecast skill of synoptic conditions associated with Santa Ana winds in Southern California

Treesearch

Charles Jones; Francis Fujioka; Leila M.V. Carvalho

2010-01-01

Santa Ana winds (SAW) are synoptically driven mesoscale winds observed in Southern California usually during late fall and winter. Because of the complex topography of the region, SAW episodes can sometimes be extremely intense and pose significant environmental hazards, especially during wildfire incidents. A simple set of criteria was used to identify synoptic-scale...

Mesoscale Predictability and Error Growth in Short Range Ensemble Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gingrich, Mark

Although it was originally suggested that small-scale, unresolved errors corrupt forecasts at all scales through an inverse error cascade, some authors have proposed that those mesoscale circulations resulting from stationary forcing on the larger scale may inherit the predictability of the large-scale motions. Further, the relative contributions of large- and small-scale uncertainties in producing error growth in the mesoscales remain largely unknown. Here, 100 member ensemble forecasts are initialized from an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to simulate two winter storms impacting the East Coast of the United States in 2010. Four verification metrics are considered: the local snow water equivalence, total liquid water, and 850 hPa temperatures representing mesoscale features; and the sea level pressure field representing a synoptic feature. It is found that while the predictability of the mesoscale features can be tied to the synoptic forecast, significant uncertainty existed on the synoptic scale at lead times as short as 18 hours. Therefore, mesoscale details remained uncertain in both storms due to uncertainties at the large scale. Additionally, the ensemble perturbation kinetic energy did not show an appreciable upscale propagation of error for either case. Instead, the initial condition perturbations from the cycling EnKF were maximized at large scales and immediately amplified at all scales without requiring initial upscale propagation. This suggests that relatively small errors in the synoptic-scale initialization may have more importance in limiting predictability than errors in the unresolved, small-scale initial conditions.

Spectral Gap Energy Transfer in Atmospheric Boundary Layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhushan, S.; Walters, K.; Barros, A. P.; Nogueira, M.

2012-12-01

Experimental measurements of atmospheric turbulence energy spectra show E(k) ~ k-3 slopes at synoptic scales (~ 600 km - 2000 km) and k-5/3 slopes at the mesoscales (< 400 km). The -5/3 spectra is presumably related to 3D turbulence which is dominated by the classical Kolmogrov energy cascade. The -3 spectra is related to 2D turbulence, which is dominated by strong forward scatter of enstrophy and weak forward scatter of energy. In classical 2D turbulence theory, it is expected that a strong backward energy cascade would develop at the synoptic scale, and that circulation would grow infinitely. To limit this backward transfer, energy arrest at macroscales must be introduced. The most commonly used turbulence models developed to mimic the above energy transfer include the energy backscatter model for 2D turbulence in the horizontal plane via Large Eddy Simulation (LES) models, dissipative URANS models in the vertical plane, and Ekman friction for the energy arrest. One of the controversial issues surrounding the atmospheric turbulence spectra is the explanation of the generation of the 2D and 3D spectra and transition between them, for energy injection at the synoptic scales. Lilly (1989) proposed that the existence of 2D and 3D spectra can only be explained by the presence of an additional energy injection in the meso-scale region. A second issue is related to the observations of dual peak spectra with small variance in meso-scale, suggesting that the energy transfer occurs across a spectral gap (Van Der Hoven, 1957). Several studies have confirmed the spectral gap for the meso-scale circulations, and have suggested that they are enhanced by smaller scale vertical convection rather than by the synoptic scales. Further, the widely accepted energy arrest mechanism by boundary layer friction is closely related to the spectral gap transfer. This study proposes an energy transfer mechanism for atmospheric turbulence with synoptic scale injection, wherein the generation of 2D and 3D spectra is explained using spectral gap energy transfer. The existence of the spectral gap energy transfer is validated by performing LES for the interaction of large scale circulation with a wall, and studying the evolution of the energy spectra both near to and far from the wall. Simulations are also performed using the Advanced Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF-ARW) for moist zonal flow over Gaussian ridge, and the energy spectra close and away from the ground are studied. The energy spectra predicted by WRF-ARW are qualitatively compared with LES results to emphasize the limitations of the currently used turbulence parameterizations. Ongoing validation efforts include: (1) extending the interaction of large scale circulation with wall simulations to finer grids to capture a wider range of wavenumbers; and (2) a coupled 2D-3D simulation is planned to predict the entire atmospheric turbulence spectra at a very low computational expense. The overarching objective of this study to develop turbulence modeling capability based on the energy transfer mechanisms proposed in this study. Such a model will be implemented in WRF-ARW, and applied to atmospheric simulations, for example the prediction of moisture convergence patterns at the meso-scale in the southeast United States (Tao & Barros, 2008).

Synoptic-scale circulation patterns during summer derived from tree rings in mid-latitude Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seim, Andrea; Schultz, Johannes A.; Leland, Caroline; Davi, Nicole; Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa; Liang, Eryuan; Wang, Xiaochun; Beck, Christoph; Linderholm, Hans W.; Pederson, Neil

2017-09-01

Understanding past and recent climate and atmospheric circulation variability is vital for regions that are affected by climate extremes. In mid-latitude Asia, however, the synoptic climatology is complex and not yet fully understood. The aim of this study was to investigate dominant synoptic-scale circulation patterns during the summer season using a multi-species tree-ring width (TRW) network comprising 78 sites from mid-latitude Asia. For each TRW chronology, we calculated an atmospheric circulation tree-ring index (ACTI), based on 1000 hPa geopotential height data, to directly link tree growth to 13 summertime weather types and their associated local climate conditions for the period 1871-1993. Using the ACTI, three groups of similarly responding tree-ring sites can be associated with distinct large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns: 1. growth of drought sensitive trees is positively affected by a cyclone over northern Russia; 2. temperature sensitive trees show positive associations to a cyclone over northwestern Russia and an anticyclone over Mongolia; 3. trees at two high elevation sites show positive relations to a zonal cyclone extending from mid-latitude Eurasia to the West Pacific. The identified synoptic-scale circulation patterns showed spatiotemporal variability in their intensity and position, causing temporally varying climate conditions in mid-latitude Asia. Our results highlight that for regions with less pronounced atmospheric action centers during summer such as the occurrence of large-scale cyclones and anticyclones, synoptic-scale circulation patterns can be extracted and linked to the Northern Hemisphere circulation system. Thus, we provide a new and solid envelope for climate studies covering the past to the future.

Water-quality assessment of the eastern Iowa basins- nitrogen, phosphorus, suspended sediment, and organic carbon in surface water, 1996-98

USGS Publications Warehouse

Becher, Kent D.; Kalkhoff, Stephen J.; Schnoebelen, Douglas J.; Barnes, Kimberlee K.; Miller, Von E.

2001-01-01

Synoptic samples collected during low and high base flow had nitrogen, phosphorus, and organic-carbon concentrations that varied spatially and seasonally. Comparisons of water-quality data from six basic-fixed sampling sites and 19 other synoptic sites suggest that the water-quality data from basic-fixed sampling sites were representative of the entire study unit during periods of low and high base flow when most streamflow originates from ground water.

Deep convection over Northern Italy: synoptic and thermodynamic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, S.; Mezzasalma, P.; Levizzani, V.; Alberoni, P. P.; Nanni, S.

Synoptic and thermodynamic characteristics of severe storm outbreaks, including supercells, over northern Italy's Po valley are examined over a 3-year period. Storms are divided into three main categories according to the most relevant associated ground phenomenon: tornado-like, hailfall and heavy rain. For each category, the most common synoptic characteristics are investigated. Sounding data are used to calculate stability indices that help define the storm's environment. Results indicate that the interaction between the synoptic flow and the steep Alpine orography is the key factor responsible for building up the mesoscale circulation that leads to different kinds of severe storms. Some of the stability indices can be regarded as predictors of intense convection.

Synoptic and Mesoscale Climatologies of Severe Local Storms for the American Midwest.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, David Leslie

This study investigates the synoptic and mesoscale environments associated with severe local storms (SELS) in the heart of the American Midwest. This region includes west-central Illinois, most of Indiana, the extreme western counties of Ohio, and a small part of northeastern Kentucky. The primary objectives of this study are to determine the surface and middle-tropospheric synoptic circulation patterns and thermodynamic and kinematic environments associated with SELS event types (tornadoes, hail, severe straight -line winds), and to assess the degree to which the synoptic circulation patterns and meso-beta scale kinematic and thermodynamic climatology of the Midwest differ from that of the Great Plains. A secondary objective is to investigate the possible role that land-surface atmosphere interactions play in the spatial distribution of SELS. A new subjective synoptic typing scheme is developed and applied to determine the synoptic-scale circulation patterns associated with the occurrence of SELS event types. This scheme is based on a combination of surface and middle -tropospheric patterns. Thermodynamic and kinematic parameters are analyzed to determine meso-scale environments favorable for the development of SELS. Results indicate that key synoptic-scale circulation patterns, and specific ranges of thermodynamic and kinematic parameters are related to specific SELS event types. These circulation types and ranges of thermodynamic and kinematic parameters may be used to help improve the medium-range forecasting of severe local storms. Results of the secondary objective reveal that the spatial distribution of SELS events is clustered within the study region, and most occur under a negative climate division-level soil moisture gradient; that is, a drier upwind division than the division in which the event occurs. Moreover, the spatial distribution of SELS events is compared against a map of soil types and vegetation. The resulting distribution depicts a visual correlation between the primary soil and vegetative boundaries and clusters of SELS. This supports the likely role of meso-scale land-surface-atmosphere interactions in severe weather development for humid lowlands of the Midwest United States.

Mesoscale and Synoptic Summertime Circulations and Their Impact on Visibility in the Arabian Gulf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eleuterio, D. P.; Walker, A. L.

2005-12-01

Although frequently characterized as a region of relatively persistent northwesterly winds, often referred to as the 40-day shamal, several researchers have recognized significant temporal and spatial variability in the summer low level winds in the Arabian Gulf. In addition to the synoptically driven gradient between the subtropical high to the north and the monsoon trough across the Gulf of Oman and Northern Arabian Sea, there are complex interactions between the Saudi Arabian and Pakistani heat lows, land-sea breeze circulations, and coastal terrain influence due to the proximity of the Zagros Mountains. These interactions frequently result in several distinct wind regimes within the Arabian Gulf, to include weak thermally and dynamically forced southerlies in the southern Gulf, a diurnally varying region of convergence/ divergence across the central Gulf, and northwesterly shamal type flow in the northern Gulf. The relative orientation and strength of these wind regimes and the strength of the subsidence inversion at the top of the marine boundary layer greatly impact the aerosol loading over water and resulting visibility due to wind-blown sand, dust, and smoke. Several case studies are examined to explore the interaction between mesoscale and synoptic forcing and the resulting spatial and temporal variability in visibility and aerosol optical depth. Conditions range from two to three day periods of rapid and persistent regional clearing with freshening northwesterly winds, to persistent periods of moderate to poor visibility in marine haze under light winds, to large scale events that create a distinct wind and dust front, severely reducing visibility through much of Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, and extending well into the Arabian Gulf. These strong, widespread events may be correlated with synoptically forced conditions farther north. Alternatively, smaller scale regional plumes of mobilized dust are often created by mesoscale events which, in conjunction with oil smoke and industrial pollution, can rapidly reduce visibility in localized regions for periods of 1-2 days and are relatively difficult to forecast because of their mesoscale nature.

Estimating the Spatial Distribution of Groundwater Age Using Synoptic Surveys of Environmental Tracers in Streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardner, W. P.

2017-12-01

A model which simulates tracer concentration in surface water as a function the age distribution of groundwater discharge is used to characterize groundwater flow systems at a variety of spatial scales. We develop the theory behind the model and demonstrate its application in several groundwater systems of local to regional scale. A 1-D stream transport model, which includes: advection, dispersion, gas exchange, first-order decay and groundwater inflow is coupled a lumped parameter model that calculates the concentration of environmental tracers in discharging groundwater as a function of the groundwater residence time distribution. The lumped parameters, which describe the residence time distribution, are allowed to vary spatially, and multiple environmental tracers can be simulated. This model allows us to calculate the longitudinal profile of tracer concentration in streams as a function of the spatially variable groundwater age distribution. By fitting model results to observations of stream chemistry and discharge, we can then estimate the spatial distribution of groundwater age. The volume of groundwater discharge to streams can be estimated using a subset of environmental tracers, applied tracers, synoptic stream gauging or other methods, and the age of groundwater then estimated using the previously calculated groundwater discharge and observed environmental tracer concentrations. Synoptic surveys of SF6, CFC's, 3H and 222Rn, along with measured stream discharge are used to estimate the groundwater inflow distribution and mean age for regional scale surveys of the Berland River in west-central Alberta. We find that groundwater entering the Berland has observable age, and that the age estimated using our stream survey is of similar order to limited samples from groundwater wells in the region. Our results show that the stream can be used as an easily accessible location to constrain the regional scale spatial distribution of groundwater age.

Exploiting Synoptic-Scale Climate Processes to Develop Nonstationary, Probabilistic Flood Hazard Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, C. M.; Brown, C.; Doss-Gollin, J.

2016-12-01

Climate model projections are commonly used for water resources management and planning under nonstationarity, but they do not reliably reproduce intense short-term precipitation and are instead more skilled at broader spatial scales. To provide a credible estimate of flood trend that reflects climate uncertainty, we present a framework that exploits the connections between synoptic-scale oceanic and atmospheric patterns and local-scale flood-producing meteorological events to develop long-term flood hazard projections. We demonstrate the method for the Iowa River, where high flow episodes have been found to correlate with tropical moisture exports that are associated with a pressure dipole across the eastern continental United States We characterize the relationship between flooding on the Iowa River and this pressure dipole through a nonstationary Pareto-Poisson peaks-over-threshold probability distribution estimated based on the historic record. We then combine the results of a trend analysis of dipole index in the historic record with the results of a trend analysis of the dipole index as simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs) under climate change conditions through a Bayesian framework. The resulting nonstationary posterior distribution of dipole index, combined with the dipole-conditioned peaks-over-threshold flood frequency model, connects local flood hazard to changes in large-scale atmospheric pressure and circulation patterns that are related to flooding in a process-driven framework. The Iowa River example demonstrates that the resulting nonstationary, probabilistic flood hazard projection may be used to inform risk-based flood adaptation decisions.

Synoptic climatology of the long-distance dispersal of white pine blister rust I. Development of an upper level synoptic classification

Treesearch

K. L. Frank; L. S. Kalkstein; B. W. Geils; H. W. Thistle

2008-01-01

This study developed a methodology to temporally classify large scale, upper level atmospheric conditions over North America, utilizing a newly-developed upper level synoptic classification (ULSC). Four meteorological variables: geopotential height, specific humidity, and u- and v-wind components, at the 500 hPa level over North America were obtained from the NCEP/NCAR...

Synoptic backgrounds of the widest wildfire in Mazandaran Province of Iran during December 11-13, 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghavidel, Yousef; Farajzadeh, Manuchehr; Khaleghi Babaei, Meysam

2016-12-01

In this paper, atmospheric origins of the widest wildfire in Mazandaran province on 11-13th of December, 2010 have been investigated. Data sets of this research include maximum daily temperature (MDT), minimum relative humidity (MRH) of terrestrial stations, dynamic and thermodynamic features of the atmosphere, Gridded data sets of Self-Calibrated Palmer drought severity index (SCPDSI) and global drought dataset standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and data related to the time and the extent of the wildfire. The ``environmental to circulation'' approach to synoptic classification has been used to investigate relationships between local-scale surface environment (wildfire) and the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation conditions. Results of study show that during the 3-day wide wildfire, the average of MDT and the MRH was significantly different from the long-term average. During the aforementioned wildfire, the average of MDT in Mazandaran province was 26 °C and the average of MRH was reported 35 %. The long-term average of MDT and the MRH in Mazandaran province during 3 days of wildfire was 12.3 °C and 68 %, respectively. Therefore, the MDT has a positive abnormality of 13.7 °C and the MRH has a negative abnormality of 33 %. In addition, monthly SCPDSI and SPEI indicated severe drought conditions at December 2010 in Mazandaran. Analysis of SLP maps shows that during the 3-day fire, a pressure center of 1110 hPa on Persian Gulf and a very low-pressure center on Turkey and Asia Minor were created. Normally, this event has caused the pressure gradient and warm and dry air advection from Arabian Peninsula to higher longitudes, particularly Mazandaran province. Consequently, the MDT increased and the wildfire of Mazandaran forest took place in an area of 220 ha. Zonal wind maps signify the weakness of Zonal wind and meridional wind maps show the southern direction of meridional wind flow during the wide wildfire. Moreover, Omega maps prove that during the aforementioned wildfire, the Omega flow has been positive and the warm air flow has subsidence. This made the infusion of warm air and increased the MDT substantially and consequently the wildfire occurrence was facilitated. Temperature advection maps showed that in the level of 1000 hPa, the warm air blowing source is originated from Arabian Peninsula, in the level of 850 hPa from the Arabian Peninsula and Iraq and in the level of 700 and 500 hPa from Ethiopia, Arabian Peninsula and Iraq. The Hybrid-Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model outputs confirm the synoptic mechanisms for the discussed wildfire.

A New Multiscale Model for the Madden-Julian Oscillation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biello, Joseph A.; Majda, Andrew J.

2005-06-01

A multiscale model of the MJO is developed here that accounts, in a simplified fashion, for both the upscale transfer from synoptic to planetary scales of momentum and temperature from wave trains of thermally driven equatorial synoptic-scale circulations in a moving convective envelope as well as direct mean heating on planetary scales. This model involves idealized thermally driven congestus synoptic-scale fluctuations in the eastern part of the moving wave envelope and convective superclusters in the western part of the envelope. The model self-consistently reproduces qualitatively many of the detailed structural features of the planetary circulation in the observations of the MJO, including the vertical structure in both the westerly onset region and the strong westerly wind burst region, as well as the horizontal quadrupole planetary vortex structure. The westerly midlevel inflow in the strong westerly region and the quadrupole vortex are largely produced in the model by the upscale transport of momentum to the planetary scales, while the midlevel easterly jet in the westerly onset region is substantially strengthened by this process. The role of wave trains of tilted organized synoptic-scale circulations is crucial for this fidelity with observations. The appeal of the multiscale models developed below is their firm mathematical underpinnings, simplicity, and analytic tractability while remaining self-consistent with many of the features of the observational record.

Effects of synoptic patterns on atmospheric chemistry and aerosols during the Arctic Ocean Expedition 1996

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsson, E. Douglas; Barr, Sumner

2001-12-01

The atmospheric program on the Arctic Ocean Expedition of July through September 1996 (AOE-96) was focused on aerosol climate feedback. The expedition took place close to the saddle point between a semipersistent anticyclonic ridge from near Scandinavia to the Arctic coast of eastern Siberia and a trough from the Canadian archipelago across the pole to north central Siberia. The weather varied from anticyclonic clear-sky conditions to cyclonic cloudy conditions, and 13 identifiable migratory features (frontal bands, wave disturbances) clearly influenced local weather, clouds, atmospheric transport, and chemistry. This includes an explosive polar cyclone, born at the lateral heat gradient between Greenland and the pack ice rather than between open sea and the pack ice. The synoptic scale weather systems caused the strongest variability in trace gases (O3 in particular) and aerosols, and also strong variability in the cloud cover. The formation of air masses over the pack ice primarily depends on if there is cyclonic (convergent) or anticyclonic (divergent) flow. Cyclonic flow resulted in a modified marine air mass loaded with vapor, but with low aerosol number concentrations owing to frequent clouds and fogs and efficient cloud scavenging of the aerosol. Anticyclonic flow resulted in almost continental air masses with clear sky, long residence time over the pack ice and subsidence slowly replacing the boundary layer with free tropospheric air, low vapor concentrations, but large aerosol number in lack of efficient cloud scavenging. The synoptic variability and advection from south of the ice edge were weaker than during the predecessor International Arctic Ocean Expedition in 1991 (IAOE-91), when on average the sampled air spent 55 hours over the pack ice compared to more than 120 hours during AOE-96, owing to exceptionally high cyclone activity in 1991. This caused a large difference in atmospheric transport, chemistry, and aerosols between the two expeditions.

Impact of the Rhône and Durance valleys on sea-breeze circulation in the Marseille area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bastin, Sophie; Drobinski, Philippe; Dabas, Alain; Delville, Patricia; Reitebuch, Oliver; Werner, Christian

2005-03-01

Sea-breeze dynamics in the Marseille area, in the south of France, is investigated in the framework of the ESCOMPTE experiment conducted during summer 2001 in order to evaluate the role of thermal circulations on pollutant transport and ventilation. Under particular attention in this paper is the sea-breeze channelling by the broad Rhône valley and the narrow Durance valley, both oriented nearly-north-south, i.e., perpendicular to the coastline, and its possible impact on the sea-breeze penetration, intensity and depth, which are key information for air pollution issues. One situation of slight synoptic pressure gradient leading to a northerly flow in the Rhône valley (25 June 2001) and one situation of a weak onshore prevailing synoptic wind (26 June 2001) are compared. The impact of the Rhône and Durance valleys on the sea-breeze dynamics on these two typical days is generalized to the whole ESCOMPTE observing period. The present study shows by combining simple scaling analysis with wind data from meteorological surface stations and Doppler lidars that (i) the Durance valley always affects the sea breeze by accelerating the flow. A consequence is that the Durance valley contributes to weaken the temperature gradient along the valley and thus the sea-breeze circulation. In some cases, the acceleration of the channelled flow in the Durance valley suppresses the sea-breeze flow by temperature gradient inhibition; (ii) the Rhône valley does not generally affect the sea breeze significantly. However, if the sea breeze is combined with an onshore flow, it leads to further penetration inland and intensification of the low-level southerly flow. In this situation, lateral constriction may accelerate the sea breeze. Simple scaling analysis suggests that Saint Paul (44.35°N, about 100 km from the coastline) is the lower limit where sea breeze can be affected by the Rhône valley. These conclusions have implications in air quality topics as channelled sea breeze may advect far inland pollutants which may be incorporated into long-range transport, particularly in the Durance valley.

Questa baseline and pre-mining ground-water quality investigation. 2. Low-flow (2001) and snowmelt (2002) synoptic/tracer water chemistry for the Red River, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCleskey, R. Blaine; Nordstrom, D. Kirk; Steiger, Judy I.; Kimball, Briant A.; Verplanck, Philip L.

2003-01-01

Water analyses are reported for 259 samples collected from the Red River, New Mexico, and its tributaries during low-flow(2001) and spring snowmelt (2002) tracer studies. Water samples were collected along a 20-kilometer reach of the Red River beginning just east of the town of Red River and ending at the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station located east of Questa, New Mexico. The study area was divided into three sections where separate injections and synoptic sampling events were performed during the low-flow tracer study. During the spring snowmelt tracer study, three tracer injections and synoptic sampling events were performed bracketing the areas with the greatest metal loading into the Red River as determined from the low-flow tracer study. The lowflow tracer synoptic sampling events were August 17, 20, and 24, 2001. The synoptic sampling events for the spring snowmelt tracer were March 30, 31, and April 1, 2002. Stream and large inflow water samples were sampled using equal-width and depth-integrated sampling methods and composited into half-gallon bottles. Grab water samples were collected from smaller inflows. Stream temperatures were measured at the time of sample collection. Samples were transported to a nearby central processing location where pH and specific conductance were measured and the samples processed for chemical analyses. Cations, trace metals, iron redox species, and fluoride were analyzed at the U.S. Geological Survey laboratory in Boulder, Colorado. Cations and trace metal concentrations were determined using inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectrometry and graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry. Arsenic concentrations were determined using hydride generation atomic absorption spectrometry, iron redox species were measured using ultraviolet-visible spectrometry, and fluoride concentrations were determined using an ion-selective electrode. Alkalinity was measured by automated titration, and sulfate, chloride, and bromide were analyzed by ion chromatography at the U.S. Geological Survey laboratory in Salt Lake City, Utah.

Interannual variations in fire weather, fire extent, and synoptic-scale circulation patterns in northern California and Oregon

Treesearch

Valerie Trouet; Alan H. Taylor; Andrew M. Carleton; Carl N. Skinner

2009-01-01

The Mediterranean climate region on the west coast of the United States is characterized by wet winters and dry summers, and by high fire activity. The importance of synoptic-scale circulation patterns (ENSO, PDO, PNA) on fire-climate interactions is evident in contemporary fire data sets and in pre-Euroamerican tree-ring-based fire records. We investigated how...

Study of the tornado event in Greece on March 25, 2009: Synoptic analysis and numerical modeling using modified topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsangouras, I. T.; Nastos, P. T.; Pytharoulis, I.

2016-03-01

Recent research revealed that western Greece and NW Peloponnese are regions that favor prefrontal tornadic incidence. On March 25, 2009 a tornado developed approximately at 10:30 UTC near Varda village (NW Peloponnese). Tornado intensity was T4-T5 (TORRO scale) and consequently caused an economic impact of 350,000 € over the local society. The goals of this study are: (i) to analyze synoptic and remote sensing features regarding the tornado event over NW Peloponnese and (ii) to investigate the role of topography in tornadogenesis triggered under strong synoptic scale forcing over that area. Synoptic analysis was based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data sets. The analysis of daily anomaly of synoptic conditions with respect to 30 years' climatology (1981-2010), was based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis data sets. In addition, numerous remote sensing data sets were derived by the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS) weather station network in order to better interpret the examined tornado event. Finally, numerical modeling was performed using the non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), initialized by ECMWF gridded analyses, with telescoping nested grids that allow the representation of atmospheric circulations ranging from the synoptic scale down to the meso-scale. The two numerical experiments were performed on the basis of: (a) the presence and (b) the absence of topography (landscape), so as to determine whether the occurrence of a tornado - identified by diagnostic instability indices - could be indicated by modifying topography. The energy helicity index (EHI), the bulk Richardson number (BRN) shear, the storm-relative environmental helicity (SRH), and the maximum convective available potential energy (MCAPE, for parcels with maximum θe) were considered as principal diagnostic instability variables and employed in both numerical experiments. Furthermore, model verification was conducted, accompanied by analysis of the absolute vorticity budget. Synoptic analysis revealed that the synoptic weather conditions on March 25, 2009 are in agreement with the composite synoptic climatology for tornado days over western Greece. In addition, maximum daily anomalies at the barometric levels of 500, 700, 850 and 925 hPa were found, compared to the climatology of composite mean anomalies for tornado days over western Greece. Numerical simulations revealed that the topography of NW Peloponnese did not constitute an important factor during the tornado event on March 25, 2009, based on EHI, SRH, BRN, and MCAPE analyses.

Mesoscale Dynamical Regimes in the Midlatitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craig, G. C.; Selz, T.

2018-01-01

The atmospheric mesoscales are characterized by a complex variety of meteorological phenomena that defy simple classification. Here a full space-time spectral analysis is carried out, based on a 7 day convection-permitting simulation of springtime midlatitude weather on a large domain. The kinetic energy is largest at synoptic scales, and on the mesoscale it is largely confined to an "advective band" where space and time scales are related by a constant of proportionality which corresponds to a velocity scale of about 10 m s-1. Computing the relative magnitude of different terms in the governing equations allows the identification of five dynamical regimes. These are tentatively identified as quasi-geostrophic flow, propagating gravity waves, stationary gravity waves related to orography, acoustic modes, and a weak temperature gradient regime, where vertical motions are forced by diabatic heating.

The structure and large-scale organization of extreme cold waves over the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Zuowei; Black, Robert X.; Deng, Yi

2017-12-01

Extreme cold waves (ECWs) occurring over the conterminous United States (US) are studied through a systematic identification and documentation of their local synoptic structures, associated large-scale meteorological patterns (LMPs), and forcing mechanisms external to the US. Focusing on the boreal cool season (November-March) for 1950‒2005, a hierarchical cluster analysis identifies three ECW patterns, respectively characterized by cold surface air temperature anomalies over the upper midwest (UM), northwestern (NW), and southeastern (SE) US. Locally, ECWs are synoptically organized by anomalous high pressure and northerly flow. At larger scales, the UM LMP features a zonal dipole in the mid-tropospheric height field over North America, while the NW and SE LMPs each include a zonal wave train extending from the North Pacific across North America into the North Atlantic. The Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) in general simulates the three ECW patterns quite well and successfully reproduces the observed enhancements in the frequency of their associated LMPs. La Niña and the cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) favor the occurrence of NW ECWs, while the warm PDO phase, low Arctic sea ice extent and high Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE) are associated with elevated SE-ECW frequency. Additionally, high Eurasian SCE is linked to increases in the occurrence likelihood of UM ECWs.

Cloud Properties under Different Synoptic Circulations: Comparison of Radiosonde and Ground-Based Active Remote Sensing Measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Jinqiang; Li, Jun; Xia, Xiangao

In this study, long-term (10 years) radiosonde-based cloud data are compared with the ground-based active remote sensing product under six prevailing large-scale synoptic patterns, i.e., cyclonic center (CC), weak pressure pattern (WP), the southeast bottom of cyclonic center (CB), cold front (CF), anticyclone edge (AE) and anticyclone center (AC) over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. The synoptic patterns are generated by applying the self-organizing map weather classification method to the daily National Centers for Environmental Protection mean sea level pressure records from the North American Regional Reanalysis. It reveals that the large-scale synoptic circulations can strongly influence the regionalmore » cloud formation, and thereby have impact on the consistency of cloud retrievals from the radiosonde and ground-based cloud product. The total cloud cover at the SGP site is characterized by the least in AC and the most in CF. The minimum and maximum differences between the two cloud methods are 10.3% for CC and 13.3% for WP. Compared to the synoptic patterns characterized by scattered cloudy and clear skies (AE and AC), the agreement of collocated cloud boundaries between the two cloud approaches tends to be better under the synoptic patterns dominated by overcast and cloudy skies (CC, WP and CB). The rainy and windy weather conditions in CF synoptic pattern influence the consistency of the two cloud retrieval methods associated with the limited capabilities inherent to the instruments. As a result, the cloud thickness distribution from the two cloud datasets compares favorably with each other in all synoptic patterns, with relative discrepancy of ≤0.3 km.« less

Cloud Properties under Different Synoptic Circulations: Comparison of Radiosonde and Ground-Based Active Remote Sensing Measurements

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Jinqiang; Li, Jun; Xia, Xiangao; ...

2016-11-28

In this study, long-term (10 years) radiosonde-based cloud data are compared with the ground-based active remote sensing product under six prevailing large-scale synoptic patterns, i.e., cyclonic center (CC), weak pressure pattern (WP), the southeast bottom of cyclonic center (CB), cold front (CF), anticyclone edge (AE) and anticyclone center (AC) over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. The synoptic patterns are generated by applying the self-organizing map weather classification method to the daily National Centers for Environmental Protection mean sea level pressure records from the North American Regional Reanalysis. It reveals that the large-scale synoptic circulations can strongly influence the regionalmore » cloud formation, and thereby have impact on the consistency of cloud retrievals from the radiosonde and ground-based cloud product. The total cloud cover at the SGP site is characterized by the least in AC and the most in CF. The minimum and maximum differences between the two cloud methods are 10.3% for CC and 13.3% for WP. Compared to the synoptic patterns characterized by scattered cloudy and clear skies (AE and AC), the agreement of collocated cloud boundaries between the two cloud approaches tends to be better under the synoptic patterns dominated by overcast and cloudy skies (CC, WP and CB). The rainy and windy weather conditions in CF synoptic pattern influence the consistency of the two cloud retrieval methods associated with the limited capabilities inherent to the instruments. As a result, the cloud thickness distribution from the two cloud datasets compares favorably with each other in all synoptic patterns, with relative discrepancy of ≤0.3 km.« less

The impact of nudging coefficient for the initialization on the atmospheric flow field and the photochemical ozone concentration of Seoul, Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Hyun-Jung; Lee, Hwa Woon; Sung, Kyoung-Hee; Kim, Min-Jung; Kim, Yoo-Keun; Jung, Woo-Sik

In order to incorporate correctly the large or local scale circulation in the model, a nudging term is introduced into the equation of motion. Nudging effects should be included properly in the model to reduce the uncertainties and improve the air flow field. To improve the meteorological components, the nudging coefficient should perform the adequate influence on complex area for the model initialization technique which related to data reliability and error suppression. Several numerical experiments have been undertaken in order to evaluate the effects on air quality modeling by comparing the performance of the meteorological result with variable nudging coefficient experiment. All experiments are calculated by the upper wind conditions (synoptic or asynoptic condition), respectively. Consequently, it is important to examine the model response to nudging effect of wind and mass information. The MM5-CMAQ model was used to assess the ozone differences in each case, during the episode day in Seoul, Korea and we revealed that there were large differences in the ozone concentration for each run. These results suggest that for the appropriate simulation of large or small-scale circulations, nudging considering the synoptic and asynoptic nudging coefficient does have a clear advantage over dynamic initialization, so appropriate limitation of these nudging coefficient values on its upper wind conditions is necessary before making an assessment. The statistical verifications showed that adequate nudging coefficient for both wind and temperature data throughout the model had a consistently positive impact on the atmospheric and air quality field. On the case dominated by large-scale circulation, a large nudging coefficient shows a minor improvement in the atmospheric and air quality field. However, when small-scale convection is present, the large nudging coefficient produces consistent improvement in the atmospheric and air quality field.

NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Graduate Student Program. [FIRE CIRRUS-II examination of coupling between an upper tropospheric cloud system and synoptic-scale dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ackerman, Thomas P.

1994-01-01

The evolution of synoptic-scale dynamics associated with a middle and upper tropospheric cloud event that occurred on 26 November 1991 is examined. The case under consideration occurred during the FIRE CIRRUS-II Intensive Field Observing Period held in Coffeyville, KS during Nov. and Dec., 1991. Using data from the wind profiler demonstration network and a temporally and spatially augmented radiosonde array, emphasis is given to explaining the evolution of the kinematically-derived ageostrophic vertical circulations and correlating the circulation with the forcing of an extensively sampled cloud field. This is facilitated by decomposing the horizontal divergence into its component parts through a natural coordinate representation of the flow. Ageostrophic vertical circulations are inferred and compared to the circulation forcing arising from geostrophic confluence and shearing deformation derived from the Sawyer-Eliassen Equation. It is found that a thermodynamically indirect vertical circulation existed in association with a jet streak exit region. The circulation was displaced to the cyclonic side of the jet axis due to the orientation of the jet exit between a deepening diffluent trough and building ridge. The cloud line formed in the ascending branch of the vertical circulation with the most concentrated cloud development occurring in conjunction with the maximum large-scale vertical motion. The relationship between the large scale dynamics and the parameterization of middle and upper tropospheric clouds in large-scale models is discussed and an example of ice water contents derived from a parameterization forced by the diagnosed vertical motions and observed water vapor contents is presented.

The impact of synoptic weather on UK surface ozone and implications for premature mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, R. J.; Butt, E. W.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Doherty, R. M.; Fenech, S.; Schmidt, A.; Arnold, S. R.; Savage, N. H.

2016-12-01

Air pollutants, such as ozone, have adverse impacts on human health and cause, for example, respiratory and cardiovascular problems. In the United Kingdom (UK), peak surface ozone concentrations typically occur in the spring and summer and are controlled by emission of precursor gases, tropospheric chemistry and local meteorology which can be influenced by large-scale synoptic weather regimes. In this study we composite surface and satellite observations of summer-time (April to September) ozone under different UK atmospheric circulation patterns, as defined by the Lamb weather types. Anticyclonic conditions and easterly flows are shown to significantly enhance ozone concentrations over the UK relative to summer-time average values. Anticyclonic stability and light winds aid the trapping of ozone and its precursor gases near the surface. Easterly flows (NE, E, SE) transport ozone and precursor gases from polluted regions in continental Europe (e.g. the Benelux region) to the UK. Cyclonic conditions and westerly flows, associated with unstable weather, transport ozone from the UK mainland, replacing it with clean maritime (North Atlantic) air masses. Increased cloud cover also likely decrease ozone production rates. We show that the UK Met Office regional air quality model successfully reproduces UK summer-time ozone concentrations and ozone enhancements under anticyclonic and south-easterly conditions for the summer of 2006. By using established ozone exposure-health burden metrics, anticyclonic and easterly condition enhanced surface ozone concentrations pose the greatest public health risk.

Meteorological Modeling of Wintertime Cold Air Pool Stagnation Episodes in the Uintah and Salt Lake Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crosman, E.; Horel, J.; Blaylock, B. K.; Foster, C.

2014-12-01

High wintertime ozone concentrations in rural areas associated with oil and gas development and high particulate concentrations in urban areas have become topics of increasing concern in the Western United States, as both primary and secondary pollutants become trapped within stable wintertime boundary layers. While persistent cold air pools that enable such poor wintertime air quality are typically associated with high pressure aloft and light winds, the complex physical processes that contribute to the formation, maintenance, and decay of persistent wintertime temperature inversions are only partially understood. In addition, obtaining sufficiently accurate numerical weather forecasts and meteorological simulations of cold air pools for input into chemical models remains a challenge. This study examines the meteorological processes associated with several wintertime pollution episodes in Utah's Uintah and Salt Lake Basins using numerical Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations and observations collected from the Persistent Cold Air Pool and Uintah Basin Ozone Studies. The temperature, vertical structure, and winds within these cold air pools was found to vary as a function of snow cover, snow albedo, land use, cloud cover, large-scale synoptic flow, and episode duration. We evaluate the sensitivity of key atmospheric features such as stability, planetary boundary layer depth, local wind flow patterns and transport mechanisms to variations in surface forcing, clouds, and synoptic flow. Finally, noted deficiencies in the meteorological models of cold air pools and modifications to the model snow and microphysics treatment that have resulted in improved cold pool simulations will be presented.

Modelling Local Sea-Breeze Flow and Associated Dispersion Patterns Over a Coastal Area in North-East Spain: A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soler, M. R.; Arasa, R.; Merino, M.; Olid, M.; Ortega, S.

2011-07-01

The structure and evolution of the sea breeze in the north-west part of the Mediterranean (Catalonia, north-east Spain) is studied both experimentally and, predominantly, using numerical models to increase understanding of sea-breeze structure and three-dimensional (3D) pollution distributions in coastal environments. Sea-breeze components are modelled and analyzed using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Centre for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5). The results show that the growth and structure of the sea-breeze circulation is modulated by the synoptic flow and especially by the complex topography of the area. 3D pollution transport in a sea breeze is modelled by coupling the MM5 to the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, with results indicating that topography and synoptic flow are the main factors modulating horizontal and vertical pollutant transport in sea-breeze episodes. In this way, horizontal dispersion is limited by the complex topography of the area, whilst the sea-breeze flow is intensified by anabatic upslope winds that contribute to vertical pollutant transport. The numerical model results also indicate that the sea-breeze circulation with a weak return flow at upper levels grows due to a synoptic onshore wind component. However, such a sea-breeze circulation is capable of transporting pollutants towards the coast.

Wave modulation of the extratropical tropopause inversion layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilch Kedzierski, Robin; Matthes, Katja; Bumke, Karl

2017-03-01

This study aims to quantify how much of the observed strength and variability in the zonal-mean extratropical tropopause inversion layer (TIL) comes from the modulation of the temperature field and its gradients around the tropopause by planetary- and synoptic-scale waves. By analyzing high-resolution observations, it also puts other TIL enhancing mechanisms into context.Using gridded Global Positioning System radio occultation (GPS-RO) temperature profiles from the COSMIC mission (2007-2013), we are able to extract the extratropical wave signal by a simplified wavenumber-frequency domain filtering method and quantify the resulting TIL enhancement. By subtracting the extratropical wave signal, we show how much of the TIL is associated with other processes, at mid- and high latitudes, for both hemispheres and all seasons.The transient and reversible modulation by planetary- and synoptic-scale waves is almost entirely responsible for the TIL in midlatitudes. This means that wave-mean flow interactions, inertia-gravity waves and the residual circulation are of minor importance for the strength and variability in the midlatitude TIL.At polar regions, the extratropical wave modulation is dominant for the TIL strength as well, but there is also a clear fingerprint from sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) and final warmings in both hemispheres. Therefore, polar vortex breakups are partially responsible for the observed polar TIL strength in winter (if SSWs occur) and spring. Also, part of the polar summer TIL strength cannot be explained by extratropical wave modulation.We suggest that our wave modulation mechanism integrates several TIL enhancing mechanisms proposed in previous literature while robustly disclosing the overall outcome of the different processes involved. By analyzing observations only, our study identifies which mechanisms dominate the extratropical TIL strength and their relative contribution. It remains to be determined, however, which roles the different planetary- and synoptic-scale wave types play within the total extratropical wave modulation of the TIL, as well as what causes the observed amplification of extratropical waves near the tropopause.

The effect of latent heat release on synoptic-to-planetary wave interactions and its implication for satellite observations: Theoretical modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Branscome, Lee E.; Bleck, Rainer; Obrien, Enda

1990-01-01

The project objectives are to develop process models to investigate the interaction of planetary and synoptic-scale waves including the effects of latent heat release (precipitation), nonlinear dynamics, physical and boundary-layer processes, and large-scale topography; to determine the importance of latent heat release for temporal variability and time-mean behavior of planetary and synoptic-scale waves; to compare the model results with available observations of planetary and synoptic wave variability; and to assess the implications of the results for monitoring precipitation in oceanic-storm tracks by satellite observing systems. Researchers have utilized two different models for this project: a two-level quasi-geostrophic model to study intraseasonal variability, anomalous circulations and the seasonal cycle, and a 10-level, multi-wave primitive equation model to validate the two-level Q-G model and examine effects of convection, surface processes, and spherical geometry. It explicitly resolves several planetary and synoptic waves and includes specific humidity (as a predicted variable), moist convection, and large-scale precipitation. In the past year researchers have concentrated on experiments with the multi-level primitive equation model. The dynamical part of that model is similar to the spectral model used by the National Meteorological Center for medium-range forecasts. The model includes parameterizations of large-scale condensation and moist convection. To test the validity of results regarding the influence of convective precipitation, researchers can use either one of two different convective schemes in the model, a Kuo convective scheme or a modified Arakawa-Schubert scheme which includes downdrafts. By choosing one or the other scheme, they can evaluate the impact of the convective parameterization on the circulation. In the past year researchers performed a variety of initial-value experiments with the primitive-equation model. Using initial conditions typical of climatological winter conditions, they examined the behavior of synoptic and planetary waves growing in moist and dry environments. Surface conditions were representative of a zonally averaged ocean. They found that moist convection associated with baroclinic wave development was confined to the subtropics.

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crane, Robert G.; Hewitson, B. C.

1991-01-01

A new diagnostic tool is developed for examining relationships between the synoptic scale circulation and regional temperature distributions in GCMs. The 4 x 5 deg GISS GCM is shown to produce accurate simulations of the variance in the synoptic scale sea level pressure distribution over the U.S. An analysis of the observational data set from the National Meteorological Center (NMC) also shows a strong relationship between the synoptic circulation and grid point temperatures. This relationship is demonstrated by deriving transfer functions between a time-series of circulation parameters and temperatures at individual grid points. The circulation parameters are derived using rotated principal components analysis, and the temperature transfer functions are based on multivariate polynomial regression models. The application of these transfer functions to the GCM circulation indicates that there is considerable spatial bias present in the GCM temperature distributions. The transfer functions are also used to indicate the possible changes in U.S. regional temperatures that could result from differences in synoptic scale circulation between a 1XCO2 and a 2xCO2 climate, using a doubled CO2 version of the same GISS GCM.

Interannual Variations in Synoptic-Scale Disturbances over the Western North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Xingyan; Lu, Riyu; Chen, Guanghua; Wu, Liang

2018-05-01

The present study investigates the interannual variation of June-November synoptic disturbance activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) and its relationship with large-scale circulation for the period 1958-2014. Two leading modes of eddy kinetic energy for the disturbance variability over the WNP are obtained by EOF analysis, characterized by anomalous eddy kinetic energy over the subtropical WNP and around the Philippines, respectively. These modes explain a large portion of the interannual variance of synoptic disturbance activity over the WNP. Both are associated with lower-level cyclonic anomalies, but with different locations: over the subtropical WNP for the first mode and over the South China Sea for the second mode. Considering the impact of ENSO on synoptic disturbance activity over the WNP, we repeat the analyses after removing the effect of ENSO, which is simply defined as the components linearly regressed onto the Niño3.4 index, and find similar results, suggesting that the leading modes and their relationships with large-scale circulation exist without SST effects. Further analyses suggest that the meridional shear of zonal winds caused by cyclonic anomalies is crucial for maintaining the leading modes through barotropic conversion.

Revisiting the observed correlation between weekly averaged Indian monsoon precipitation and Arabian Sea aerosol optical depth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Disha; Miller, Ron L.

2017-10-01

Dust influences the Indian summer monsoon on seasonal time scales by perturbing atmospheric radiation. On weekly time scales, aerosol optical depth retrieved by satellite over the Arabian Sea is correlated with Indian monsoon precipitation. This has been interpreted to show the effect of dust radiative heating on Indian rainfall on synoptic (few-day) time scales. However, this correlation is reproduced by Earth System Model simulations, where dust is present but its radiative effect is omitted. Analysis of daily variability suggests that the correlation results from the effect of precipitation on dust through the associated cyclonic circulation. Boundary layer winds that deliver moisture to India are responsible for dust outbreaks in source regions far upwind, including the Arabian Peninsula. This suggests that synoptic variations in monsoon precipitation over India enhance dust emission and transport to the Arabian Sea. The effect of dust radiative heating upon synoptic monsoon variations remains to be determined.

The characterization of an air pollution episode using satellite total ozone measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fishman, Jack; Shipham, Mark C.; Vukovich, Fred M.; Cahoon, Donald R.

1987-01-01

A case study is presented which demonstrates that measurements of total ozone from a space-based platform can be used to study a widespread air pollution episode over the southeastern U.S. In particular, the synoptic-scale distribution of surface-level ozone obtained from an independent analysis of ground-based monitoring stations appears to be captured by the synoptic-scale distribution of total ozone, even though about 90 percent of the total ozone is in the stratosphere. Additional analyses of upper air meteorological data, other satellite imagery, and in situ aircraft measurements of ozone likewise support the fact that synoptic-scale variability of tropospheric ozone is primarily responsible for the observed variability in total ozone under certain conditions. The use of the type of analysis discussed in this study may provide an important technique for understanding the global budget of tropospheric ozone.

Computing entropy change in synoptic-scale system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Y. P.; Hu, Y. Y.; Cao, H. X.; Fu, C. F.; Feng, G. L.

2018-03-01

Thermodynamic entropy is of great importance in the atmospheric physics and chemistry process, because it is a non-conserved state function which making a system's tendency towards spontaneous change. But how the entropy forces a synoptic-scale system is still not well known. In this paper, we analyzed the entropy change in atmosphere system, by calculating several examples of extra tropical cyclones over the Yellow River and its adjacent area in summer. The results show that a strong negative entropy flux appears over the north of a stationary front and the thresholds Fe S ≤ - 280 and ∂s / ∂t ≤ - 50 are satisfied. At the same time, the change of total entropy is smaller than zero. Therefore the cyclone developed quickly and daily precipitation reached 371 mm, which is heaviest rain over the Yellows River area in summer. We suggest the dynamical entropy should be developed to improve the forecasting technique of heavy rainfall event in synoptic-scale.

Sensitivity of a mesoscale model to initial specification of relative humidity, liquid water and vertical motion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalb, M. W.; Perkey, D. J.

1985-01-01

The influence of synoptic scale initial conditions on the accuracy of mesoscale precipitation modeling is investigated. Attention is focused on the relative importance of the water vapor, cloud water, rain water, and vertical motion, with the analysis carried out using the Limited Area Mesoscale Prediction System (LAMPS). The fully moist primitive equation model has 15 levels and a terrain-following sigma coordinate system. A K-theory approach was implemented to model the planetary boundary layer. A total of 15 sensitivity simulations were run to investigate the effects of the synoptic initial conditions of the four atmospheric variables. The absence of synoptic cloud and rain water amounts in the initialization caused a 2 hr delay in the onset of precipitation. The delay was increased if synoptic-scale vertical motion was used instead of mesoscale values. Both the delays and a choice of a smoothed moisture field resulted in underestimations of the total rainfall.

Synoptic Control of Cross-Barrier Precipitation Ratios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mass, C.; Vargas, R.

2013-12-01

The substantial precipitation contrasts across mountain barriers, with windward enhancement on one side and leeward reduction on the other, have been the subject of several studies and reviews, both observational and theoretical. A lesser number of papers have examined the temporal variability of the orographic precipitation contrasts, including the origins of such variability. For example, Siler et al. (2013) examined the variability of the rain-shadow effect across the Cascade Mountains of Washington State. They found that the intensity of the winter-mean rain shadow was weaker in El Nino than La Nina years, and suggested that the strongest (weakest) rain shadows occurred for warm-sector (warm-frontal) situations. Dettinger et al. (2004) examined the synoptic controls of varying orographic precipitation ratios across the Sierra Nevada of California, with ratios defined by the difference in precipitation between the Central Valley and the western slopes of the barrier. They found increased ratios when the flow was more normal to the terrain and when vertical stability was less, with higher ratios after cold frontal passage compared to the warm sectors of midlatitude cyclones. The latter result appears to contradict the findings of Siler et al (2013). This presentation explores the temporal variations in the intensity of the precipitation gradient across the Cascade Mountains of Washington State and describes the synoptic conditions associated with periods in which precipitation is heavier on the western side, heavier on the eastern side, or nearly equal across the barrier. The talk will begin by summarizing the temporal variations of precipitation on the windward and leeward sides of the Cascades for a several year period. Segregating the hours when precipitation is substantially greater on the windward side, greater on the leeward side, or roughly equal, provides a series of dates used for synoptic composites for these three situations. It is shown that there are coherent and significant synoptic differences between the three precipitation ratio regimes, and these differences are illustrated for several case studies. For example, windward enhancement is greater after the passage of cold or occluded fronts, when stability is reduced and the flow is more westerly. Finally, the physical connection between synoptic flow and the changing cross-barrier precipitation contrasts are discussed.

Examination of tracer transport in the NCAR CCM2 by comparison of CFCl3 simulations with ALE/GAGE observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartley, Dana E.; Williamson, David L.; Rasch, Philip J.; Prinn, Ronald G.

1994-01-01

The latest version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) community climate model (CCM2) contains a semi-Lagrangian tracer transport scheme for the purpose of advecting water vapor and for including chemistry in the climate model. One way to diagnose the CCM2 transport is to simulate CFCl3 in the CCM2 since it has a well-known industry-based source distribution and a photochemical sink and to compare the model results to Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment/Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment ALE/GAGE observations around the globe. In this paper we focus on this comparison and discuss the synoptic scale issues of tracer transport where appropriate. We compare the model and observations on both 12-hour and monthly timescales. The higher-frequency events allow us to diagnose the synoptic scale transport in the CCM2 associated with the observational sites and to determine uncertainties in our high-resolution source distribution. We find that the CCM2 does simulate many of the key features such as pollution events and some seasonal transports, but there are still some dynamical features of tracer transport such as the storm track dynamics and cross-equatorial flow that merit further study in both the model and the real atmosphere.

Using DOUBLE STAR and CLUSTER Synoptic Observations to Test Global MHD Simulations of the Large-scale Topology of the Dayside Merging Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berchem, J.; Marchaudon, A.; Bosqued, J.; Escoubet, C. P.; Dunlop, M.; Owen, C. J.; Reme, H.; Balogh, A.; Carr, C.; Fazakerley, A. N.; Cao, J. B.

2005-12-01

Synoptic measurements from the DOUBLE STAR and CLUSTER spacecraft offer a unique opportunity to evaluate global models in simulating the complex topology and dynamics of the dayside merging region. We compare observations from the DOUBLE STAR TC-1 and CLUSTER spacecraft on May 8, 2004 with the predictions from a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation that uses plasma and magnetic field parameters measured upstream of the bow shock by the WIND spacecraft. Results from the global simulation are consistent with the large-scale features observed by CLUSTER and TC-1. We discuss topological changes and plasma flows at the dayside magnetospheric boundary inferred from the simulation results. The simulation shows that the DOUBLE STAR spacecraft passed through the dawn side merging region as the IMF rotated. In particular, the simulation indicates that at times TC-1 was very close to the merging region. In addition, we found that the bifurcation of the merging region in the simulation results is consistent with predictions by the antiparallel merging model. However, because of the draping of the magnetosheath field lines over the magnetopause, the positions and shape of the merging region differ significantly from those predicted by the model.

Turbulent transport model of wind shear in thunderstorm gust fronts and warm fronts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewellen, W. S.; Teske, M. E.; Segur, H. C. O.

1978-01-01

A model of turbulent flow in the atmospheric boundary layer was used to simulate the low-level wind and turbulence profiles associated with both local thunderstorm gust fronts and synoptic-scale warm fronts. Dimensional analyses of both type fronts provided the physical scaling necessary to permit normalized simulations to represent fronts for any temperature jump. The sensitivity of the thunderstorm gust front to five different dimensionless parameters as well as a change from axisymmetric to planar geometry was examined. The sensitivity of the warm front to variations in the Rossby number was examined. Results of the simulations are discussed in terms of the conditions which lead to wind shears which are likely to be most hazardous for aircraft operations.

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crane, Robert G.; Hewitson, Bruce

1990-01-01

Model simulations of global climate change are seen as an essential component of any program aimed at understanding human impact on the global environment. A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs), however, is their inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global scale change, and it is these regional scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human/environmental response. This research is directed toward the development of a methodology for the validation of the synoptic scale climatology of GCMs. This is developed with regard to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM Model 2, with the specific objective of using the synoptic circulation form a doubles CO2 simulation to estimate regional climate change over North America, south of Hudson Bay. This progress report is specifically concerned with validating the synoptic climatology of the GISS GCM, and developing the transfer function to derive grid-point temperatures from the synoptic circulation. Principal Components Analysis is used to characterize the primary modes of the spatial and temporal variability in the observed and simulated climate, and the model validation is based on correlations between component loadings, and power spectral analysis of the component scores. The results show that the high resolution GISS model does an excellent job of simulating the synoptic circulation over the U.S., and that grid-point temperatures can be predicted with reasonable accuracy from the circulation patterns.

A kinetic energy analysis of the meso beta-scale severe storm environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuelberg, H. E.; Printy, M. F.

1984-01-01

Analyses are performed of the meso beta-scale (20-200 km wavelengths and several hours to one-day periods) severe storm kinetic energy balance on the fifth day of the AVE SESAME campaign of May 1979. A 24-hr interval covering the antecedent, active and post-convective outbreak activity over Oklahoma are considered. Use is made of the kinetic energy budget equation (KEBE) for a finite volume in an isobaric coordinate system. Rawindsonde data with 75 km resolution were treated. The KEBE model covered changes in kinetic energy due to the cross contour flows, horizontal and vertical components of flux divergence, and volumic mass changes on synoptic and subsynoptic scales. The greatest variability was concentrated above 400 mb height and over the most intense storm activity. Energy was generated at the highest rates in divergence and decreased the most in convection. The meso beta-scale lacked sufficient resolution for analyzing mesoscale activity.

A Synoptic Weather Typing Approach and Its application to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Weather Events at Local Scale in South-Central Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shouquan Cheng, Chad; Li, Qian; Li, Guilong

2010-05-01

The synoptic weather typing approach has become popular in evaluating the impacts of climate change on a variety of environmental problems. One of the reasons is its ability to categorize a complex set of meteorological variables as a coherent index, which can facilitate analyses of local climate change impacts. The weather typing method has been successfully applied in Environment Canada for several research projects to analyze climatic change impacts on a number of extreme weather events, such as freezing rain, heavy rainfall, high-/low-flow events, air pollution, and human health. These studies comprise of three major parts: (1) historical simulation modeling to verify the extreme weather events, (2) statistical downscaling to provide station-scale future hourly/daily climate data, and (3) projections of changes in frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events in this century. To achieve these goals, in addition to synoptic weather typing, the modeling conceptualizations in meteorology and hydrology and a number of linear/nonlinear regression techniques were applied. Furthermore, a formal model result verification process has been built into each of the three parts of the projects. The results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables predicted by the models, showed very good agreement. The modeled results from these projects found that the frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events are projected to significantly increase under a changing climate in this century. This talk will introduce these research projects and outline the modeling exercise and result verification process. The major findings on future projections from the studies will be summarized in the presentation as well. One of the major conclusions from the studies is that the procedures (including synoptic weather typing) used in the studies are useful for climate change impact analysis on future extreme weather events. The implication of the significant increases in frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events would be useful to be considered when revising engineering infrastructure design standards and developing adaptation strategies and policies.

Synoptic-scale Rossby waves and the geographic distribution of lateral transport routes between the tropics and the extratropics in the lower stratosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horinouchi, Takeshi; Sassi, Fabrizio; Boville, Byron A.

2000-11-01

Atmospheric transport between the tropics and the extratropics, in the lowest part of the stratosphere during Northern Hemisphere winter, is investigated. The role of synoptic-scale disturbances that propagate laterally into the tropics is examined using the middle atmosphere version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model Version 3 general circulation model. In the lower stratosphere, synoptic-scale Rossby waves propagate vigorously from the northern (i.e., winter) extratropics through two ``westerly ducts,'' where the westerly zonal mean winds near the equator are favorable to Rossby wave propagation. The waves break in the westerly ducts and modify the mean potential vorticity (PV) structure to connect subtropical and equatorial regions of sharp PV gradients. Frequent wave breaking and the wave -induced PV structure create distinct routes where transport occurs vigorously between the tropics and the northern extratropics. Interhemispheric transport also occurs through regions associated with the westerly ducts. In the Southern (summer) Hemisphere lower stratosphere, synoptic-scale disturbances propagate mainly as ``tongues'' of PV elongated from extratropical disturbances. The transport between the tropics and the southern extratropics has a strong geographic preference but is dominated by the monsoon circulation, as was shown for the upper troposphere by Chen [1995]. PV tongues and other transient anomalies are of secondary importance.

Quantifying the imprint of mesoscale and synoptic-scale atmospheric transport on total column carbon dioxide measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres, A. D.; Keppel-Aleks, G.; Doney, S. C.; Feng, S.; Lauvaux, T.; Fendrock, M. A.; Rheuben, J.

2017-12-01

Remote sensing instruments provide an unprecedented density of observations of the atmospheric CO2 column average mole fraction (denoted as XCO2), which can be used to constrain regional scale carbon fluxes. Inferring fluxes from XCO2 observations is challenging, as measurements and inversion methods are sensitive to not only the imprint local and large-scale fluxes, but also mesoscale and synoptic-scale atmospheric transport. Quantifying the fine-scale variability in XCO2 from mesoscale and synoptic-scale atmospheric transport will likely improve overall error estimates from flux inversions by improving estimates of representation errors that occur when XCO2 observations are compared to modeled XCO2 in relatively coarse transport models. Here, we utilize various statistical methods to quantify the imprint of atmospheric transport on XCO2 observations. We compare spatial variations along Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) satellite tracks to temporal variations observed by the Total Column Carbon Observing Network (TCCON). We observe a coherent seasonal cycle of both within-day temporal and fine-scale spatial variability (of order 10 km) of XCO2 from these two datasets, suggestive of the imprint of mesoscale systems. To account for other potential sources of error in XCO2 retrieval, we compare observed temporal and spatial variations of XCO2 to high-resolution output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run at 9 km resolution. In both simulations and observations, the Northern hemisphere mid-latitude XCO2 showed peak variability during the growing season when atmospheric gradients are largest. These results are qualitatively consistent with our expectations of seasonal variations of the imprint of synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric transport on XCO2 observations; suggesting that these statistical methods could be sensitive to the imprint of atmospheric transport on XCO2 observations.

Performance of WRF in simulating terrain induced flows and atmospheric boundary layer characteristics over the tropical station Gadanki

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hari Prasad, K. B. R. R.; Srinivas, C. V.; Rao, T. Narayana; Naidu, C. V.; Baskaran, R.

2017-03-01

In this study the evolution of the topographic flows and boundary layer features over a tropical hilly station Gadanki in southern India were simulated using Advanced Research WRF (ARW) mesoscale model for fair weather days during southwest monsoon (20-22 July 2011) and winter (18-20 Jan. 2011). Turbulence measurements from an Ultra High Frequency (UHF) Wind Profiler, Ultra Sonic Anemometer, GPS Sonde and meteorological tower were used for comparison. Simulations revealed development of small-scale slope winds in the lower boundary layer (below 800 m) at Gadanki which are more prevalent during nighttime. Stronger slope winds during winter and weaker flows in the monsoon season are simulated indicating the sensitivity of slope winds to the background synoptic flows and radiative heating/cooling. Higher upward surface fluxes (sensible, latent heat) and development of very deep convective boundary layer ( 2500 m) is simulated during summer monsoon relative to the winter season in good agreement with observations. Four PBL parameterizations (YSU, MYJ, MYNN and ACM) were evaluated to simulate the above characteristics. Large differences were noticed in the simulated boundary layer features using different PBL schemes in both the seasons. It is found that the TKE-closures (MYJ, MYNN) produced extremities in daytime PBL depth, surface fluxes, temperature, humidity and winds. The differences in the simulations are attributed to the eddy diffusivities, buoyancy and entrainment fluxes which were simulated differently in the respective schemes. The K-based YSU followed by MYNN best produced the slope winds as well as daytime boundary layer characteristics realistically in both the summer and winter synoptic conditions at Gadanki hilly site though with slight overestimation of nocturnal PBL height.

Multiple Scale Analysis of the Dynamic State Index (DSI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, A.; Névir, P.

2016-12-01

The Dynamic State Index (DSI) is a novel parameter that indicates local deviations of the atmospheric flow field from a stationary, inviscid and adiabatic solution of the primitive equations of fluid mechanics. This is in contrast to classical methods, which often diagnose deviations from temporal or spatial mean states. We show some applications of the DSI to atmospheric flow phenomena on different scales. The DSI is derived from the Energy-Vorticity-Theory (EVT) which is based on two global conserved quantities, the total energy and Ertel's potential enstrophy. Locally, these global quantities lead to the Bernoulli function and the PV building together with the potential temperature the DSI.If the Bernoulli function and the PV are balanced, the DSI vanishes and the basic state is obtained. Deviations from the basic state provide an indication of diabatic and non-stationary weather events. Therefore, the DSI offers a tool to diagnose and even prognose different atmospheric events on different scales.On synoptic scale, the DSI can help to diagnose storms and hurricanes, where also the dipole structure of the DSI plays an important role. In the scope of the collaborative research center "Scaling Cascades in Complex Systems" we show high correlations between the DSI and precipitation on convective scale. Moreover, we compare the results with reduced models and different spatial resolutions.

Network analysis reveals multiscale controls on streamwater chemistry

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGuire, Kevin J.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Likens, Gene E.; Buso, Donald C.; Lowe, Winsor H.; Bailey, Scott W.

2014-01-01

By coupling synoptic data from a basin-wide assessment of streamwater chemistry with network-based geostatistical analysis, we show that spatial processes differentially affect biogeochemical condition and pattern across a headwater stream network. We analyzed a high-resolution dataset consisting of 664 water samples collected every 100 m throughout 32 tributaries in an entire fifth-order stream network. These samples were analyzed for an exhaustive suite of chemical constituents. The fine grain and broad extent of this study design allowed us to quantify spatial patterns over a range of scales by using empirical semivariograms that explicitly incorporated network topology. Here, we show that spatial structure, as determined by the characteristic shape of the semivariograms, differed both among chemical constituents and by spatial relationship (flow-connected, flow-unconnected, or Euclidean). Spatial structure was apparent at either a single scale or at multiple nested scales, suggesting separate processes operating simultaneously within the stream network and surrounding terrestrial landscape. Expected patterns of spatial dependence for flow-connected relationships (e.g., increasing homogeneity with downstream distance) occurred for some chemical constituents (e.g., dissolved organic carbon, sulfate, and aluminum) but not for others (e.g., nitrate, sodium). By comparing semivariograms for the different chemical constituents and spatial relationships, we were able to separate effects on streamwater chemistry of (i) fine-scale versus broad-scale processes and (ii) in-stream processes versus landscape controls. These findings provide insight on the hierarchical scaling of local, longitudinal, and landscape processes that drive biogeochemical patterns in stream networks.

Network analysis reveals multiscale controls on streamwater chemistry

PubMed Central

McGuire, Kevin J.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Likens, Gene E.; Buso, Donald C.; Lowe, Winsor H.; Bailey, Scott W.

2014-01-01

By coupling synoptic data from a basin-wide assessment of streamwater chemistry with network-based geostatistical analysis, we show that spatial processes differentially affect biogeochemical condition and pattern across a headwater stream network. We analyzed a high-resolution dataset consisting of 664 water samples collected every 100 m throughout 32 tributaries in an entire fifth-order stream network. These samples were analyzed for an exhaustive suite of chemical constituents. The fine grain and broad extent of this study design allowed us to quantify spatial patterns over a range of scales by using empirical semivariograms that explicitly incorporated network topology. Here, we show that spatial structure, as determined by the characteristic shape of the semivariograms, differed both among chemical constituents and by spatial relationship (flow-connected, flow-unconnected, or Euclidean). Spatial structure was apparent at either a single scale or at multiple nested scales, suggesting separate processes operating simultaneously within the stream network and surrounding terrestrial landscape. Expected patterns of spatial dependence for flow-connected relationships (e.g., increasing homogeneity with downstream distance) occurred for some chemical constituents (e.g., dissolved organic carbon, sulfate, and aluminum) but not for others (e.g., nitrate, sodium). By comparing semivariograms for the different chemical constituents and spatial relationships, we were able to separate effects on streamwater chemistry of (i) fine-scale versus broad-scale processes and (ii) in-stream processes versus landscape controls. These findings provide insight on the hierarchical scaling of local, longitudinal, and landscape processes that drive biogeochemical patterns in stream networks. PMID:24753575

Network analysis reveals multiscale controls on streamwater chemistry.

PubMed

McGuire, Kevin J; Torgersen, Christian E; Likens, Gene E; Buso, Donald C; Lowe, Winsor H; Bailey, Scott W

2014-05-13

By coupling synoptic data from a basin-wide assessment of streamwater chemistry with network-based geostatistical analysis, we show that spatial processes differentially affect biogeochemical condition and pattern across a headwater stream network. We analyzed a high-resolution dataset consisting of 664 water samples collected every 100 m throughout 32 tributaries in an entire fifth-order stream network. These samples were analyzed for an exhaustive suite of chemical constituents. The fine grain and broad extent of this study design allowed us to quantify spatial patterns over a range of scales by using empirical semivariograms that explicitly incorporated network topology. Here, we show that spatial structure, as determined by the characteristic shape of the semivariograms, differed both among chemical constituents and by spatial relationship (flow-connected, flow-unconnected, or Euclidean). Spatial structure was apparent at either a single scale or at multiple nested scales, suggesting separate processes operating simultaneously within the stream network and surrounding terrestrial landscape. Expected patterns of spatial dependence for flow-connected relationships (e.g., increasing homogeneity with downstream distance) occurred for some chemical constituents (e.g., dissolved organic carbon, sulfate, and aluminum) but not for others (e.g., nitrate, sodium). By comparing semivariograms for the different chemical constituents and spatial relationships, we were able to separate effects on streamwater chemistry of (i) fine-scale versus broad-scale processes and (ii) in-stream processes versus landscape controls. These findings provide insight on the hierarchical scaling of local, longitudinal, and landscape processes that drive biogeochemical patterns in stream networks.

Case study modeling of turbulent and mesoscale fluxes over the BOREAS region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vidale, P.L.; Pielke, R.A.; Steyaert, L.T.; Barr, A.

1997-01-01

Results from aircraft and surface observations provided evidence for the existence of mesoscale circulations over the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) domain. Using an integrated approach that included the use of analytical modeling, numerical modeling, and data analysis, we have found that there are substantial contributions to the total budgets of heat over the BOREAS domain generated by mesoscale circulations. This effect is largest when the synoptic flow is relatively weak, yet it is present under less favorable conditions, as shown by the case study presented here. While further analysis is warranted to document this effect, the existence of mesoscale flow is not surprising, since it is related to the presence of landscape patches, including lakes, which are of a size on the order of the local Rossby radius and which have spatial differences in maximum sensible heat flux of about 300 W m-2. We have also analyzed the vertical temperature profile simulated in our case study as well as high-resolution soundings and we have found vertical profiles of temperature change above the boundary layer height, which we attribute in part to mesoscale contributions. Our conclusion is that in regions with organized landscapes, such as BOREAS, even with relatively strong synoptic winds, dynamical scaling criteria should be used to assess whether mesoscale effects should be parameterized or explicitly resolved in numerical models of the atmosphere.

Assessment of Error in Synoptic-Scale Diagnostics Derived from Wind Profiler and Radiosonde Network Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mace, Gerald G.; Ackerman, Thomas P.

1996-01-01

A topic of current practical interest is the accurate characterization of the synoptic-scale atmospheric state from wind profiler and radiosonde network observations. We have examined several related and commonly applied objective analysis techniques for performing this characterization and considered their associated level of uncertainty both from a theoretical and a practical standpoint. A case study is presented where two wind profiler triangles with nearly identical centroids and no common vertices produced strikingly different results during a 43-h period. We conclude that the uncertainty in objectively analyzed quantities can easily be as large as the expected synoptic-scale signal. In order to quantify the statistical precision of the algorithms, we conducted a realistic observing system simulation experiment using output from a mesoscale model. A simple parameterization for estimating the uncertainty in horizontal gradient quantities in terms of known errors in the objectively analyzed wind components and temperature is developed from these results.

Seasonal Evolution and Variability Associated with the West African Monsoon System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gu, Guojun; Adler, Robert F.

2003-01-01

In this study, we investigate the seasonal variations in surface rainfall and associated large-scale processes in the tropical eastern Atlantic and West African region. The 5-yr (1998-2002) high-quality TRMM rainfall, sea surface temperature (SST), water vapor and cloud liquid water observations are applied along with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind components and a 3-yr (2000-2002) Quickscat satellite-observed surface wind product. Major mean rainfall over West Africa tends to be concentrated in two regions and is observed in two different seasons, manifesting an abrupt shift of the mean rainfall zone during June-July. (i) Near the Gulf of Guinea (about 5 degN), intense convection and rainfall are seen during April-June and roughly follow the seasonality of SST in the tropical eastern Atlantic. (ii) Along the latitudes of about 10 deg. N over the interior West African continent, a second intense rain belt begins to develop from July and remains there during the later summer season. This belt co-exists with a northwardmoved African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and its accompanying horizonal and vertical shear zones, the appearance and intensification of an upper tropospheric Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ), and a strong low-level westerly flow. Westward-propagating wave signals [ i e . , African easterly waves (AEWs)] dominate the synoptic-scale variability during July-September, in contrast to the evident eastward-propagating wave signals during May- June. The abrupt shift of mean rainfall zone thus turns out to be a combination of two different physical processes: (i) Evident seasonal cycles in the tropical eastern Atlantic ocean which modulate convection and rainfall in the Gulf of Guinea by means of SST thermal forcing and SST-related meridional gradient; (ii) The interaction among the AEJ, TEJ, low-level westerly flow, moist convection and AEWs during July-September which modulates rainfall variability in the interior West Africa, primarily within the ITCZ rain band. Evident seasonality in synoptic-scale wave signals is shown to be a good evidence for this seasonal evolution.

Synoptic Control of Contrail Cirrus Life Cycles and Their Modification Due to Reduced Soot Number Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bier, A.; Burkhardt, U.; Bock, L.

2017-11-01

The atmospheric state, aircraft emissions, and engine properties determine formation and initial properties of contrails. The synoptic situation controls microphysical and dynamical processes and causes a wide variability of contrail cirrus life cycles. A reduction of soot particle number emissions, resulting, for example, from the use of alternative fuels, strongly impacts initial ice crystal numbers and microphysical process rates of contrail cirrus. We use the European Centre/Hamburg (ECHAM) climate model version 5 including a contrail cirrus modul, studying process rates, properties, and life cycles of contrail cirrus clusters within different synoptic situations. The impact of reduced soot number emissions is approximated by a reduction in the initial ice crystal number, exemplarily studied for 80%. Contrail cirrus microphysical and macrophysical properties can depend much more strongly on the synoptic situation than on the initial ice crystal number. They can attain a large cover, optical depth, and ice water content in long-lived and large-scale ice-supersaturated areas, making them particularly climate-relevant. In those synoptic situations, the accumulated ice crystal loss due to sedimentation is increased by around 15% and the volume of contrail cirrus, exceeding an optical depth of 0.02, and their short-wave radiative impact are strongly decreased due to reduced soot emissions. These reductions are of little consequence in short-lived and small-scale ice-supersaturated areas, where contrail cirrus stay optically very thin and attain a low cover. The synoptic situations in which long-lived and climate-relevant contrail cirrus clusters can be found over the eastern U.S. occur in around 25% of cases.

Identifying Patterns in Extreme Precipitation Risk and the Related Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation can harm human life and assets through flooding, hail, landslides, or debris flows. Flood risk assessments typically concentrate on river or mountain torrent channels, using water depth, flow velocity, and/or sediment deposition to quantify the risk. In addition, extreme events with high recurrence intervals are often the main focus. However, damages from short-term and localized convective showers often occur away from watercourses. Also, damages from more frequent small scale extremes, although usually less disastrous, can accumulate to considerable financial burdens. Extreme convective precipitation is expected to intensify in a warmer climate, and vulnerability patterns might change in tandem with changes in the character of precipitation and flood types. This has consequences for adaptation planners who want to establish effective protection measures and reduce the cost from natural hazards. Here we merge hydrological and exposure data to identify patterns of risk under varying synoptic conditions. Exposure is calculated from a database of 76k damage claims reported to the national disaster fund in 480 municipalities in south eastern Austria from 1990-2015. Hydrological data comprise sub-daily precipitation (59 gauges) and streamflow (62 gauges) observations. We use synoptic circulation types to identify typical precipitation patterns. They indicate the character of precipitation even if a gauge is not in close proximity, facilitating potential future research with regional climate model data. Results show that more claims are reported under synoptic conditions favouring convective precipitation (on average 1.5-3 times more than on other days). For agrarian municipalities, convective precipitation damages are among the costliest after long low-intensity precipitation events. In contrast, Alpine communities are particularly vulnerable to convective high-intensity rainfall. In addition to possible observational error, uncertainty is present in damage reporting errors, claims from private insurers and adaptation effects after damaging events. As for the latter, preliminary results indicate that investments regularly occur after big events, which may skew subsequent damage claims. Their effectiveness, though, needs to be analyzed in future research.

Modeling the convective transport of pollutants from eastern Colorado, USA into Rocky Mountain National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pina, A.; Schumacher, R. S.; Denning, S.

2015-12-01

Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) is a Class I Airshed designated under the Clean Air Act. Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition in the Park has been a known problem since weekly measurements of wet deposition of inorganic N began in the 1980s by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP). The addition of N from urban and agriculture emissions along the Colorado Front Range to montane ecosystems degrades air quality/visibility, water quality, and soil pH levels. Based on NADP data during summers 1994-2014, wet N deposition at Beaver Meadows in RMNP exhibited a bimodal gamma distribution. In this study, we identified meteorological transport mechanisms for 3 high wet-N deposition events (all events were within the secondary peak of the gamma distribution) using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The NARR was used to identify synoptic-scale influences on the transport; the WRF model was used to analyze the convective transport of pollutants from a concentrated animal feeding operation near Greeley, Colorado, USA. The WRF simulation included a passive tracer from the feeding operation and a convection-permitting horizontal spacing of 4/3 km. The three cases suggest (a) synoptic-scale moisture and flow patterns are important for priming summer transport events and (b) convection plays a vital role in the transport of Front Range pollutants into RMNP.

Study of Mesobeta Basin Flows by Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuxart, J.; Cunillera, J.; Jiménez, M. A.; Martínez, D.; Molinos, F.; Palau, J. L.

2012-04-01

If no well-defined synoptic pressure gradients exist over a basin, flows can develop at a variety of scales, the main generators of circulations being spatial thermal differences. These dynamics are studied for the eastern Ebro basin, at the north-eastern part of the Iberian Peninsula, almost isolated from the surrounding areas by mountain ranges. The main tool for the study is the new RASS-Sodar by Scintec, the WindRASS, which combines sound and radio waves to provide profiles of wind and virtual temperature up to 360 m above the ground in the present configuration. One year of operation shows that low-level jets are found routinely, their maximum speed being at a height below 500 m above ground level. The jets are from a constant direction for several hours over the whole observed column, with rapid transitions between these periods. They allow for efficient heat transport at the basin scale and are good producers of vertical mixing due to the strong wind shear. In summer the irrigated plain has larger thermal contrast with the dry slopes, and the winds are stronger than in winter, when katabatic flows can develop at night and usually radiation fog appears and may last for days.

Synoptical situations and meteorological conditions associated to floods in the mouth of rivers in the European part of Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matveeva, Tatiana; Gushchina, Daria

2013-04-01

The synoptical situations associated to the various type of floods in the mouth of rivers in European part of Russia are described. The storm surges, water flows and ice-jams are considered for Baltic, Barents sea, White sea, Azov sea, Black sea and Caspian sea regions. It is shown that the specific types of flood may be associated to various synoptical situations. Therefore it is unlikely to introduce the classification of synoptical regimes resulting in specific type of floods. However for each zone under consideration and for each specific flood type it is possible to determine the potential predictors of inundation: i.e. meteorological parameters which are characteristics of all cases of specific flood. There are: • for storm surges - long term wind forcing resulting in seiches in the sea, strong wind speed (the threshold varies in dependence on region), the wind direction orthogonal to the flow of river and strong baric gradient; • for water flows - the abundant precipitation, usually associate with the intensive frontal zone, the sudden change of air temperature resulting in snow melting in spring time; • for ice-jams - the strong temperature gradient extended in north-south direction resulting in negative temperature in the river mouth and positive temperature in the other basin. The probability of occurrence of predictors mentioned above was estimated for modern climate and global warming conditions using the outputs of ECHAM5/MPI-OM model. It is shown that the occurrence of intensive frontal zone and rainfall in the South of Russia will increase (decrease) in summer (winter) under warmer climate conditions which may contribute to the increase of water flows in this region. Maximum of floods occurs during the warm period, we can conclude that global warming increases the risk of floods in Black Sea coast.

Flow patterns and bathymetric signatures on the delta front of a prograding river delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaw, J.; Mohrig, D. C.; Wagner, R. W.

2016-02-01

The transition of water between laterally confined channels and the unchannelized delta front controls the growth pattern of river deltas, but is difficult to measure on field-scale deltas. We quantify flow patterns, bathymetry and bathymetric evolution for the subaqueous delta front on the Wax Lake Delta (WLD), a rapidly prograding delta in coastal Louisiana. The flow direction field, mapped using streaklines composed of biogenic slicks on the water surface, shows that a significant portion of flow ( 59%) departs subaqueous channels laterally over the subaqueous margins of the channel seaward of the shoreline. Synoptic datasets of bathymetry and flow direction allow spatial changes in flow velocity to be quantified. Most lateral flow divergence and deceleration occurs within 3-8 channel widths outboard of subaqueous channel margins, rather than downstream of channel tips. In interdistributary bays, deposit elevation decreases with a basinward slope of 2.4 x 10-4 with distance from a channel margin along any flow path. Flow patterns and this slope produce constructional features called interdistributary troughs - topographic lows in the center of interdistributary bays. These data show that flow patterns and bathymetry on the delta front are coupled both at the transition from channelized to unchannelized flow and in the depositional regions outside the distributary network.

Aspects of extratropical synoptic-scale processes in opposing ENSO phases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwierz, C.; Wernli, H.; Hess, D.

2003-04-01

Energy and momentum provided by anomalous tropical heating/cooling affect the circulation on the global scale. Pacific Sea surface temperature anomalies strongly force local conditions in the equatorial Pacific, but are also known to change the climate in the extratropics, particularly over the American continent. The impact on more remote areas such as the Atlantic-European region is less clear. There the observed effects in both analyses and model studies show dependence on the resolution of the model/data, as well as on the time scales under consideration (Merkel and Latif, 2002; Compo et al., 2001). Most of the previous studies focus on larger-scale processes and seasonal time scales (or longer). Here we concentrate on the impact of opposing ENSO phases on extratropical synoptic-scale dynamics. The investigation is undertaken for the Niño/Niña events of 1972/3 and 1973/4 respectively, for 5 winter months (NDJFM) using ECMWF ERA40 data with 1o× 1o horizontal resolution and 60 vertical levels. The examination of the resulting differences in terms of standard dynamical fields (temperature, sea level pressure, precipitation, geopotential) is complemented with additional diagnostic fields (e.g. potential vorticity (PV), anti-/cyclone tracks and frequencies, PV streamers/cut-offs, blocking) in an attempt to gain more insight into aspects of extratropical synoptic-scale dynamical processes associated with ENSO SST anomalies.

Synoptic maps for the heliospheric Thomson scattering brightness as observed by the Helios photometers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hick, P.; Jackson, B. V.; Schwenn, R.

1991-01-01

A method for displaying the electron Thomson scattering intensity in the inner heliosphere as observed by the zodiacal light photometers on board the Helios spacecraft in the form of synoptic maps is presented. The method is based on the assumption that the bulk of the scattering electrons along the line of sight is located near the point closest to the sun. Inner-heliospheric structures will generally be represented properly in these synoptic maps only if they are sufficiently long-lived (that is, a significant fraction of a solar rotation period). The examples of Helios synoptic maps discussed (from data in April 1976 and November 1978), indicate that it is possible to identify large-scale, long-lived density enhancements in the inner heliosphere. It is expected that the Helios synoptic maps will be particularly useful in the study of corotating structures (e.g., streamers), and the maps will be most reliable during periods when few transient featurs are present in the corona, i.e., during solar minimum.

A summary of research on mesoscale energetics of severe storm environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuelberg, H. E.

1985-01-01

The goals of this research were to better understand interactions between areas of intense convection and their surrounding mesoscale environments by using diagnostic budgets of kinetic (KE) and available potential energy (APE). Three cases of intense convection were examined in detail. 1) Atmospheric Variability Experiments (AVE) carried out on 24 to 25 April 1975 were studied. Synoptic scale data at 3 to 6 hour intervals, contained two mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs). Analyses included total KE budgets and budgets of divergent and rotational components of KE. 2) AVE-Severe Environmental Storms and Mesoscale Experiments (SESAME)-4 carried out on 10 to 11 April 1979 were studied. Synotpic and meso alpha-scale data (250 km spacing, 3 hour intervals), contained the Red River Valley tornado outbreak. Analyses included total KE budgets (separate synoptic and mesoscale version), budgets for the divergent and rotational components, and the generation of APE by diabatic processes. 3) AVE-SESAME 5 studies were carried out on 20 to 31 May 1979. Synoptic and meso beta-scale data (75 km spacing, 1 1/2 to 3 hour intervals), contained a small MCC. Analyses include separate KE budgets for the synotic and meso beta-scales and a water vapor budget. Major findings of these investigations are: (1) The synoptic scale storm environment contains energy conversions and transports that are comparable to those of mature midlatitude cyclones. (2) Energetic in the mesoscale storm environment are often an order of magnitude larger than those in an undisturbed region. (3) Mesoscale wind maxima form in the upper troposphere on the poleward sides of convective areas, whereas speeds decrease south of storm regions.

Revisiting the Observed Correlation Between Weekly Averaged Indian Monsoon Precipitation and Arabian Sea Aerosol Optical Depth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, D.; Miller, R. L.

2017-12-01

Dust influences the Indian summer monsoon on seasonal timescales by perturbing atmospheric radiation. On weekly time scales, aerosol optical depth retrieved by satellite over the Arabian Sea is correlated with Indian monsoon precipitation. This has been interpreted to show the effect of dust radiative heating on Indian rainfall on synoptic (few-day) time scales. However, this correlation is reproduced by Earth System Model simulations, where dust is present but its radiative effect is omitted. Analysis of daily variability suggests that the correlation results from the effect of precipitation on dust through the associated cyclonic circulation. Boundary layer winds that deliver moisture to India are responsible for dust outbreaks in source regions far upwind, including the Arabian Peninsula. This suggests that synoptic variations in monsoon precipitation over India enhance dust emission and transport to the Arabian Sea. The effect of dust radiative heating upon synoptic monsoon variations remains to be determined.

Multilevel Cloud Structures above Svalbard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dörnbrack, Andreas; Pitts, Micheal; Poole, Lamont; Gisinger, Sonja; Maturlli, Marion

2017-04-01

The presentation focusses on the reslts recently published by the authors under the heading "picture of the month" in Monthly Weather Review. The presented picture of the month is a superposition of space-borne lidar observations and high-resolution temperature fields of the ECMWF integrated forecast system (IFS). It displays complex tropospheric and stratospheric clouds in the Arctic winter 2015/16. Near the end of December 2015, the unusual northeastward propagation of warm and humid subtropical air masses as far north as 80°N lifted the tropopause by more than 3 km in 24 h and cooled the stratosphere on a large scale. A widespread formation of thick cirrus clouds near the tropopause and of synoptic-scale polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) occurred as the temperature dropped below the thresholds for the existence of cloud particles. Additionally, mountain waves were excited by the strong flow at the western edge of the ridge across Svalbard, leading to the formation of mesoscale ice PSCs. The most recent IFS cycle using a horizontal resolution of 8 km globally reproduces the large-scale and mesoscale flow features and leads to a remarkable agreement with the wave structure revealed by the space-borne observations.

The dynamical landscape of marine phytoplankton diversity

PubMed Central

Lévy, Marina; Jahn, Oliver; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Follows, Michael J.; d'Ovidio, Francesco

2015-01-01

Observations suggest that the landscape of marine phytoplankton assemblage might be strongly heterogeneous at the dynamical mesoscale and submesoscale (10–100 km, days to months), with potential consequences in terms of global diversity and carbon export. But these variations are not well documented as synoptic taxonomic data are difficult to acquire. Here, we examine how phytoplankton assemblage and diversity vary between mesoscale eddies and submesoscale fronts. We use a multi-phytoplankton numerical model embedded in a mesoscale flow representative of the North Atlantic. Our model results suggest that the mesoscale flow dynamically distorts the niches predefined by environmental contrasts at the basin scale and that the phytoplankton diversity landscape varies over temporal and spatial scales that are one order of magnitude smaller than those of the basin-scale environmental conditions. We find that any assemblage and any level of diversity can occur in eddies and fronts. However, on a statistical level, the results suggest a tendency for larger diversity and more fast-growing types at fronts, where nutrient supplies are larger and where populations of adjacent water masses are constantly brought into contact; and lower diversity in the core of eddies, where water masses are kept isolated long enough to enable competitive exclusion. PMID:26400196

Effect of noise in principal component analysis with an application to ozone pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsakiri, Katerina G.

This thesis analyzes the effect of independent noise in principal components of k normally distributed random variables defined by a covariance matrix. We prove that the principal components as well as the canonical variate pairs determined from joint distribution of original sample affected by noise can be essentially different in comparison with those determined from the original sample. However when the differences between the eigenvalues of the original covariance matrix are sufficiently large compared to the level of the noise, the effect of noise in principal components and canonical variate pairs proved to be negligible. The theoretical results are supported by simulation study and examples. Moreover, we compare our results about the eigenvalues and eigenvectors in the two dimensional case with other models examined before. This theory can be applied in any field for the decomposition of the components in multivariate analysis. One application is the detection and prediction of the main atmospheric factor of ozone concentrations on the example of Albany, New York. Using daily ozone, solar radiation, temperature, wind speed and precipitation data, we determine the main atmospheric factor for the explanation and prediction of ozone concentrations. A methodology is described for the decomposition of the time series of ozone and other atmospheric variables into the global term component which describes the long term trend and the seasonal variations, and the synoptic scale component which describes the short term variations. By using the Canonical Correlation Analysis, we show that solar radiation is the only main factor between the atmospheric variables considered here for the explanation and prediction of the global and synoptic scale component of ozone. The global term components are modeled by a linear regression model, while the synoptic scale components by a vector autoregressive model and the Kalman filter. The coefficient of determination, R2, for the prediction of the synoptic scale ozone component was found to be the highest when we consider the synoptic scale component of the time series for solar radiation and temperature. KEY WORDS: multivariate analysis; principal component; canonical variate pairs; eigenvalue; eigenvector; ozone; solar radiation; spectral decomposition; Kalman filter; time series prediction

Impacts of synoptic condition and planetary boundary layer structure on the trans-boundary aerosol transport from Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Yucong; Guo, Jianping; Liu, Shuhua; Zhao, Chun; Li, Xiaolan; Zhang, Gen; Wei, Wei; Ma, Yanjun

2018-05-01

The northeastern China frequently experiences severe aerosol pollution in winter under unfavorable meteorological conditions. How and to what extent the meteorological factors affect the air quality there are not yet clearly understood. Thus, this study investigated the impacts of synoptic patterns on the aerosol transport and planetary boundary layer (PBL) structure in Shenyang from 1 to 3 December 2016, using surface observations, sounding measurements, satellite data, and three-dimensional simulations. Results showed that the aerosol pollution occurred in Shenyang was not only related to the local emissions, but also contributed by trans-boundary transport of aerosols from the Beiijng-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region. In the presence of the westerly and southwesterly synoptic winds, the aerosols emitted from BTH could be brought to Shenyang. From December 2 to 3, the aerosols emitted from BTH accounted for ∼20% of near-surface PM2.5 in Shenyang. In addition, the large-scale synoptic forcings could affect the vertical mixing of pollutants through modulating the PBL structure in Shenyang. The westerly and southwesterly synoptic winds not only brought the aerosols but also the warmer air masses from the southwest regions to Shenyang. The strong warm advections above PBL could enhance the already existing thermal inversion layers capping over PBL in Shenyang, leading to the suppressions of PBL. Both the trans-boundary transport of aerosols and the suppressions of PBL caused by the large-scale synoptic forcings should be partly responsible for the poor air quality in Shenyang, in addition to the high pollutant emissions. The present study revealed the physical mechanisms underlying the aerosol pollution in Shenyang, which has important implications for better forecasting and controlling the aerosols pollution.

Adjustment of the summertime marine atmospheric boundary layer to the western Iberia coastal morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monteiro, Isabel T.; Santos, Aires J.; Belo-Pereira, Margarida; Oliveira, Paulo B.

2016-04-01

During summer (June, July, and August), northerly winds driven by the Azores anticyclone are prevalent over western Iberia. The Quick Scatterometer Satellite 2000 to 2009 summertime estimates reveal a broad high wind speed (≥7 ms-1) area extending about 300 km from shore and along the entire Iberian west coast. Nested in this large high-speed region, preferred maximum regions anchored in the Iberian major capes, Finisterre, Roca, and S. Vicente, are found. Composite analyses of wind maxima were performed to diagnose the typical summertime synoptic-scale pressure distribution associated with these smaller size high-speed regions. The flow low-level structure was further studied with a mesoscale numerical prediction model for three northerly events characterized by typical summertime synoptic conditions. A low-level coastal jet, setting the background conditions to the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) response to topography, was found in the three cases. The causes for wind maximum downwind capes were investigated, focusing on the hypothesis that western Iberia MABL responds to hydraulic forcing. For the three events supercritical and transcritical flow conditions were identified and expansion fan signatures were found downwind each cape. Aircraft measurements, performed during one of the events, gave additional evidence of the expansion fan leeward Cape Roca. The importance of other forcing mechanisms was also assessed by considering the hypothesis of downslope wind acceleration and found to be in direct conflict with soundings and surface observations.

Spectral nudging to eliminate the effects of domain position and geometry in regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Robock, Alan

2004-07-01

It is well known that regional climate simulations are sensitive to the size and position of the domain chosen for calculations. Here we study the physical mechanisms of this sensitivity. We conducted simulations with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) for June 2000 over North America at 50 km horizontal resolution using a 7500 km × 5400 km grid and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as boundary conditions. The position of the domain was displaced in several directions, always maintaining the U.S. in the interior, out of the buffer zone along the lateral boundaries. Circulation biases developed a large scale structure, organized by the Rocky Mountains, resulting from a systematic shifting of the synoptic wave trains that crossed the domain. The distortion of the large-scale circulation was produced by interaction of the modeled flow with the lateral boundaries of the nested domain and varied when the position of the grid was altered. This changed the large-scale environment among the different simulations and translated into diverse conditions for the development of the mesoscale processes that produce most of precipitation for the Great Plains in the summer season. As a consequence, precipitation results varied, sometimes greatly, among the experiments with the different grid positions. To eliminate the dependence of results on the position of the domain, we used spectral nudging of waves longer than 2500 km above the boundary layer. Moisture was not nudged at any level. This constrained the synoptic scales to follow reanalysis while allowing the model to develop the small-scale dynamics responsible for the rainfall. Nudging of the large scales successfully eliminated the variation of precipitation results when the grid was moved. We suggest that this technique is necessary for all downscaling studies with regional models with domain sizes of a few thousand kilometers and larger embedded in global models.

Synoptic forcing of wind relaxations at Pt. Conception, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fewings, Melanie R.; Washburn, Libe; Dorman, Clive E.; Gotschalk, Christopher; Lombardo, Kelly

2016-08-01

Over the California Current upwelling system in summer, the prevailing upwelling-favorable winds episodically weaken (relax) or reverse direction for a few days. Near Pt. Conception, California, the wind usually does not reverse, but wind relaxation allows poleward oceanic coastal flow with ecological consequences. To determine the offshore extent and synoptic forcing of these wind relaxations, we formed composite averages of wind stress from the QuikSCAT satellite and atmospheric pressure from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) using 67 wind relaxations during summer 2000-2009. Wind relaxations at Pt. Conception are the third stage of an event sequence that repeatedly affects the west coast of North America in summer. First, 5-7 days before the wind weakens near Pt. Conception, the wind weakens or reverses off Oregon and northern California. Second, the upwelling-favorable wind intensifies along central California. Third, the wind relaxes at Pt. Conception, and the area of weakened winds extends poleward to northern California over 3-5 days. The NARR underestimates the wind stress within ˜200 km of coastal capes by a factor of 2. Wind relaxations at Pt. Conception are caused by offshore extension of the desert heat low. This synoptic forcing is related to event cycles that cause wind reversal as in Halliwell and Allen (1987) and Mass and Bond (1996), but includes weaker events. The wind relaxations extend ˜600 km offshore, similarly to the California-scale hydraulic expansion fan shaping the prevailing winds, and ˜1000 km alongshore, limited by an opposing pressure gradient force at Cape Mendocino.

Evaluating synoptic systems in the CMIP5 climate models over the Australian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibson, Peter B.; Uotila, Petteri; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Pitman, Andrew J.

2016-10-01

Climate models are our principal tool for generating the projections used to inform climate change policy. Our confidence in projections depends, in part, on how realistically they simulate present day climate and associated variability over a range of time scales. Traditionally, climate models are less commonly assessed at time scales relevant to daily weather systems. Here we explore the utility of a self-organizing maps (SOMs) procedure for evaluating the frequency, persistence and transitions of daily synoptic systems in the Australian region simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models. In terms of skill in simulating the climatological frequency of synoptic systems, large spread was observed between models. A positive association between all metrics was found, implying that relative skill in simulating the persistence and transitions of systems is related to skill in simulating the climatological frequency. Considering all models and metrics collectively, model performance was found to be related to model horizontal resolution but unrelated to vertical resolution or representation of the stratosphere. In terms of the SOM procedure, the timespan over which evaluation was performed had some influence on model performance skill measures, as did the number of circulation types examined. These findings have implications for selecting models most useful for future projections over the Australian region, particularly for projections related to synoptic scale processes and phenomena. More broadly, this study has demonstrated the utility of the SOMs procedure in providing a process-based evaluation of climate models.

Comparative analysis of near-present and future synoptic conditions and their contribution to precipitation in central Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karacostas, Theodore S.; Bampzelis, Dimitrios; Karipidou, Symela; Pytharoulis, Ioannis; Tegoulias, Ioannis; Kartsios, Stergios; Kotsopoulos, Stylianos; Pakalidou, Nikoletta

2015-04-01

The objective on this study is to identify and categorize the daily synoptic circulation patterns encountered between the two periods, in near-present (2001-2010) and future (2041-2050), over the greater area of central and northern Greece, under the "DAPHNE" project (www.daphne-meteo.gr). The followed up statistical analyses and comparisons are focus on the demonstration of the differences in the frequency of occurrences of the synoptic situations between the two time periods, aiming at mitigating drought in central Greece by means of Weather Modification. Actually, within the context of the project, the daily synoptic circulation patterns encountered during the near-present ten-year period are identified and classified according to Karacostas et al. (1992) synoptic classification, into ten distinct synoptic conditions, based on the isobaric level of 500hPa. A similar procedure is adopted for the future period 2041-2050, by developing the mid-tropospheric synoptic circulation patterns through the RegCM3 regional climate model, under the IPCC scenario A1B. Results indicate that certain differences exist between near-present and future frequency distribution of occurrences of the synoptic situations over the study area. The northwest (NW) and southwest (SW) synoptic circulation patterns remain the most frequent synoptic conditions observed for both examined periods. The low pressure system activity over the area exhibit significant decrease during the future period, as it is depicted from the inter-comparison of the frequencies of the closed low (L-2) and cut-off low (L-3) systems. On the other hand, the unorganized synoptic conditions, which are mostly identified as high-low patterns (H-L), appear to increase considerably. The frequencies of zonal flow (ZON) and those of synoptic conditions associated with the presence of high-pressure system over the area, that is (H-1) and (H-2), remain almost unchanged between the two periods. The impact of the aforementioned differences in the frequencies of the synoptic conditions during the future period is examined on a yearly and seasonal basis. The contribution of each synoptic condition on the annual precipitation amounts are estimated for the near-present period, which coupled with the altered frequencies of the synoptic conditions for the future period, result to the future projected annual precipitation amounts. Possible decrease in precipitation amounts is indicated during the future period, as a result of the reduction in the frequencies of certain synoptic conditions associated with high amount of precipitation during the near-present conditions. Acknowledgments: This research work is part of DAPHNE project (11SYN_8_1088_TPE) which is co-funded by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek National Funds, through the action "COOPERATION 2011: Partnerships of Production and Research Institutions in Focused Research and Technology Sectors" in the framework of the operational programme "Competitiveness and Enterpreneurship" and Regions in Transition (OPC II, NSRF 2007-2013).

Relative contributions of synoptic and intraseasonal variations to strong cold events over eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Lei; Wu, Renguang; Jiao, Yang

2018-06-01

The present study investigates the relative roles of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) and synoptic variations in strong cold events over eastern China during the boreal winter. The ISOs and synoptic variations explain about 55% and 20% of the total area-mean temperature anomaly in eastern China, respectively. The advection of synoptic winds on synoptic temperature gradients has a leading contribution to the temperature decrease before the cold events and thus the synoptic variations are important in determining the time of peak cold anomalies. The ISOs have a larger role in sustaining the cold events. The height anomalies associated with ISOs and synoptic variations are manifested as Rossby wave trains propagating along the polar front jet over the Eurasian continent before the cold events. They both contribute to the deepening of the East Asian trough and the development of cold events. Compared to the ISO wave train, the synoptic wave train has a smaller spatial scale and moves faster. There are obvious intraseasonal signals in the stratosphere about 1 week before the cold events over eastern China. Large negative height anomalies associated with the weakening of the polar vortex are observed over the North Atlantic. These anomalies move eastwards and propagate downwards after reaching the west coast of Europe. The downward moving stratospheric signal triggers height anomalies in the troposphere over the entrance region of the polar front jet. Then the anomalies propagate towards East Asia along the wave train, contributing to the intensification of the Siberian high and the East Asian trough and the occurrence of cold events over eastern China.

Brief Communication: Synoptic-scale differences between Sundowner and Santa Ana wind regimes in the Santa Ynez Mountains, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatchett, Benjamin J.; Smith, Craig M.; Nauslar, Nicholas J.; Kaplan, Michael L.

2018-02-01

Downslope Sundowner winds in southern California's Santa Ynez Mountains favor wildfire growth. To explore differences between Sundowners and Santa Ana winds (SAWs), we use surface observations from 1979 to 2014 to develop a climatology of extreme Sundowner days. The climatology was compared to an existing SAW index from 1979 to 2012. Sundowner (SAW) occurrence peaks in late spring (winter). SAWs demonstrate amplified 500 hPa geopotential heights over western North America and anomalous positive inland mean sea-level pressures. Sundowner-only conditions display zonal 500 hPa flow and negative inland sea-level pressure anomalies. A low-level northerly coastal jet is present during Sundowners but not SAWs.

Relationships Among Atmospheric Rivers, Tropical Moisture Exports, and Warm Conveyor Belts over the Northeast Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cordeira, J. M.

2015-12-01

Extreme precipitation and attendant floods annually result in 80 fatalities and $5 Billion in damages across the U.S. and account for 50% of annual average U.S. natural disaster losses. The mechanisms that produce extreme precipitation are well known and are relatively well simulated by modern numerical weather prediction models in conjunction with synoptic-scale and mesoscale lift, instability, moisture, and boundaries. The focus of this presentation is on moisture in the form of synoptic-scale water vapor transport and its role in extreme precipitation along the U.S. West Coast. Many different terms have been used to describe synoptic-scale water vapor transport over the Northeast Pacific, including: moisture conveyor belts, warm conveyor belts, tropical moisture exports, tropical plumes, moisture plumes, pineapple express events, and atmospheric rivers. Each term respectively attempts to quantify or represent the propagation or instantaneous movement of water vapor from the Lagrangian and Eulerian frameworks in which they exist. These differences in frameworks often makes comparing and contrasting, for example, warm conveyor belts and atmospheric rivers difficult and may lead to misguided interpretations of long-range trans-oceanic water vapor transport. The purpose of this presentation is to discuss the dynamics of water vapor transport over the Northeast Pacific from the Eulerian and Lagrangian frameworks and illustrate to what degree the two- and three-dimensional structures of these rivers, exports, and belts overlap. Illustration of overlap between these processes will be shown via case study analysis of synoptic-scale water vapor transport over the Northeast Pacific that led to heavy precipitation along the U.S. West Coast during February 2014 and February 2015.

Distinct wind convergence patterns in the Mexico City basin due to the interaction of the gap winds with the synoptic flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Foy, B.; Clappier, A.; Molina, L. T.; Molina, M. J.

2006-04-01

Mexico City lies in a high altitude basin where air quality and pollutant fate is strongly influenced by local winds. The combination of high terrain with weak synoptic forcing leads to weak and variable winds with complex circulation patterns. A gap wind entering the basin in the afternoon leads to very different wind convergence lines over the city depending on the meteorological conditions. Surface and upper-air meteorological observations are analysed during the MCMA-2003 field campaign to establish the meteorological conditions and obtain an index of the strength and timing of the gap wind. A mesoscale meteorological model (MM5) is used in combination with high-resolution satellite data for the land surface parameters and soil moisture maps derived from diurnal ground temperature range. A simple method to map the lines of wind convergence both in the basin and on the regional scale is used to show the different convergence patterns according to episode types. The gap wind is found to occur on most days of the campaign and is the result of a temperature gradient across the southern basin rim which is very similar from day to day. Momentum mixing from winds aloft into the surface layer is much more variable and can determine both the strength of the flow and the pattern of the convergence zones. Northerly flows aloft lead to a weak jet with an east-west convergence line that progresses northwards in the late afternoon and early evening. Westerlies aloft lead to both stronger gap flows due to channelling and winds over the southern and western basin rim. This results in a north-south convergence line through the middle of the basin starting in the early afternoon. Improved understanding of basin meteorology will lead to better air quality forecasts for the city and better understanding of the chemical regimes in the urban atmosphere.

The impact of wave number selection and spin up time when using spectral nudging for dynamical downscaling applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez, Breogán; Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo

2017-04-01

Nudging techniques are commonly used to constrain the evolution of numerical models to a reference dataset that is typically of a lower resolution. The nudged model retains some of the features of the reference field while incorporating its own dynamics to the solution. These characteristics have made nudging very popular in dynamic downscaling applications that cover from shot range, single case studies, to multi-decadal regional climate simulations. Recently, a variation of this approach called Spectral Nudging, has gained popularity for its ability to maintain the higher temporal and spatial variability of the model results, while forcing the large scales in the solution with a coarser resolution field. In this work, we focus on a not much explored aspect of this technique: the impact of selecting different cut-off wave numbers and spin-up times. We perform four-day long simulations with the WRF model, daily for three different one-month periods that include a free run and several Spectral Nudging experiments with cut-off wave numbers ranging from the smallest to the largest possible (full Grid Nudging). Results show that Spectral Nudging is very effective at imposing the selected scales onto the solution, while allowing the limited area model to incorporate finer scale features. The model error diminishes rapidly as the nudging expands over broader parts of the spectrum, but this decreasing trend ceases sharply at cut-off wave numbers equivalent to a length scale of about 1000 km, and the error magnitude changes minimally thereafter. This scale corresponds to the Rossby Radius of deformation, separating synoptic from convective scales in the flow. When nudging above this value is applied, a shifting of the synoptic patterns can occur in the solution, yielding large model errors. However, when selecting smaller scales, the fine scale contribution of the model is damped, thus making 1000 km the appropriate scale threshold to nudge in order to balance both effects. Finally, we note that longer spin-up times are needed for model errors to stabilize when using Spectral Nudging than with Grid Nudging. Our results suggest that this time is between 36 and 48 hours.

Hydrochemical responses among nested catchments of the Sleepers River Research Watershed.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sebestyen, S. D.; Boyer, E. W.; Shanley, J. B.; Kendall, C.

2005-12-01

We are probing chemical and isotopic tracers of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrate over both space and time to determine how stream nutrient dynamics change with increasing basin size and differ with flow conditions. At the Sleepers River Research Watershed in northeastern Vermont, USA, 20 to 30 nested sub-basins that ranged in size from 3 to 11,000 ha were sampled repeatedly under baseflow conditions. These synoptic surveys showed a pattern of heterogeneity in headwaters that converged to a consistent response at larger basin sizes and is consistent with findings of other studies. In addition to characterizing spatial patterns under baseflow, we sampled rainfall and snowmelt events over a gradient of basin sizes to investigate scaling responses under different flow conditions. During high flow events, DOC and nitrate flushing responses varied among different basins where high-frequency event samples were collected. While the DOC and nitrate concentration patterns were similar at four headwater basins, the concentration responses of larger basins were markedly different in that the concentration patterns, flushing duration, and maximum concentrations were attenuated from headwaters to the largest basin. We are using these data to explore how flow paths and solute mixing aggregate. Overall, these results highlight the complexities of understanding spatial scaling issues in catchments and underscore the need to consider event responses of hydrology and chemistry among catchments.

Large Scale Water Vapor Sources Relative to the October 2000 Piedmont Flood

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turato, Barbara; Reale, Oreste; Siccardi, Franco

2003-01-01

Very intense mesoscale or synoptic-scale rainfall events can occasionally be observed in the Mediterranean region without any deep cyclone developing over the areas affected by precipitation. In these perplexing cases the synoptic situation can superficially look similar to cases in which very little precipitation occurs. These situations could possibly baffle the operational weather forecasters. In this article, the major precipitation event that affected Piedmont (Italy) between 13 and 16 October 2000 is investigated. This is one of the cases in which no intense cyclone was observed within the Mediterranean region at any time, only a moderate system was present, and yet exceptional rainfall and flooding occurred. The emphasis of this study is on the moisture origin and transport. Moisture and energy balances are computed on different space- and time-scales, revealing that precipitation exceeds evaporation over an area inclusive of Piedmont and the northwestern Mediterranean region, on a time-scale encompassing the event and about two weeks preceding it. This is suggestive of an important moisture contribution originating from outside the region. A synoptic and dynamic analysis is then performed to outline the potential mechanisms that could have contributed to the large-scale moisture transport. The central part of the work uses a quasi-isentropic water-vapor back trajectory technique. The moisture sources obtained by this technique are compared with the results of the balances and with the synoptic situation, to unveil possible dynamic mechanisms and physical processes involved. It is found that moisture sources on a variety of atmospheric scales contribute to this event. First, an important contribution is caused by the extratropical remnants of former tropical storm Leslie. The large-scale environment related to this system allows a significant amount of moisture to be carried towards Europe. This happens on a time- scale of about 5-15 days preceding the Piedmont event. Second, water-vapor intrusions from the African Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and evaporation from the eastern Atlantic contribute on the 2-5 day time-scale. The large-scale moist dynamics appears therefore to be one important factor enabling a moderate Mediterranean cyclone to produce heavy precipitation. Finally, local evaporation from the Mediterranean, water-vapor recycling, and orographically-induced low-level convergence enhance and concentrate the moisture over the area where heavy precipitation occurs. This happens on a 12-72 hour time-scale.

Time-Distance Helioseismology Data-Analysis Pipeline for Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager Onboard Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO-HMI) and Its Initial Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhao, J.; Couvidat, S.; Bogart, R. S.; Parchevsky, K. V.; Birch, A. C.; Duvall, Thomas L., Jr.; Beck, J. G.; Kosovichev, A. G.; Scherrer, P. H.

2011-01-01

The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO/HMI) provides continuous full-disk observations of solar oscillations. We develop a data-analysis pipeline based on the time-distance helioseismology method to measure acoustic travel times using HMI Doppler-shift observations, and infer solar interior properties by inverting these measurements. The pipeline is used for routine production of near-real-time full-disk maps of subsurface wave-speed perturbations and horizontal flow velocities for depths ranging from 0 to 20 Mm, every eight hours. In addition, Carrington synoptic maps for the subsurface properties are made from these full-disk maps. The pipeline can also be used for selected target areas and time periods. We explain details of the pipeline organization and procedures, including processing of the HMI Doppler observations, measurements of the travel times, inversions, and constructions of the full-disk and synoptic maps. Some initial results from the pipeline, including full-disk flow maps, sunspot subsurface flow fields, and the interior rotation and meridional flow speeds, are presented.

Overview of the Meso-NH model version 5.4 and its applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lac, Christine; Chaboureau, Jean-Pierre; Masson, Valéry; Pinty, Jean-Pierre; Tulet, Pierre; Escobar, Juan; Leriche, Maud; Barthe, Christelle; Aouizerats, Benjamin; Augros, Clotilde; Aumond, Pierre; Auguste, Franck; Bechtold, Peter; Berthet, Sarah; Bielli, Soline; Bosseur, Frédéric; Caumont, Olivier; Cohard, Jean-Martial; Colin, Jeanne; Couvreux, Fleur; Cuxart, Joan; Delautier, Gaëlle; Dauhut, Thibaut; Ducrocq, Véronique; Filippi, Jean-Baptiste; Gazen, Didier; Geoffroy, Olivier; Gheusi, François; Honnert, Rachel; Lafore, Jean-Philippe; Lebeaupin Brossier, Cindy; Libois, Quentin; Lunet, Thibaut; Mari, Céline; Maric, Tomislav; Mascart, Patrick; Mogé, Maxime; Molinié, Gilles; Nuissier, Olivier; Pantillon, Florian; Peyrillé, Philippe; Pergaud, Julien; Perraud, Emilie; Pianezze, Joris; Redelsperger, Jean-Luc; Ricard, Didier; Richard, Evelyne; Riette, Sébastien; Rodier, Quentin; Schoetter, Robert; Seyfried, Léo; Stein, Joël; Suhre, Karsten; Taufour, Marie; Thouron, Odile; Turner, Sandra; Verrelle, Antoine; Vié, Benoît; Visentin, Florian; Vionnet, Vincent; Wautelet, Philippe

2018-05-01

This paper presents the Meso-NH model version 5.4. Meso-NH is an atmospheric non hydrostatic research model that is applied to a broad range of resolutions, from synoptic to turbulent scales, and is designed for studies of physics and chemistry. It is a limited-area model employing advanced numerical techniques, including monotonic advection schemes for scalar transport and fourth-order centered or odd-order WENO advection schemes for momentum. The model includes state-of-the-art physics parameterization schemes that are important to represent convective-scale phenomena and turbulent eddies, as well as flows at larger scales. In addition, Meso-NH has been expanded to provide capabilities for a range of Earth system prediction applications such as chemistry and aerosols, electricity and lightning, hydrology, wildland fires, volcanic eruptions, and cyclones with ocean coupling. Here, we present the main innovations to the dynamics and physics of the code since the pioneer paper of Lafore et al. (1998) and provide an overview of recent applications and couplings.

A comparative analysis of rawinsonde and NIMBUS 6 and TIROS N satellite profile data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scoggins, J. R.; Carle, W. E.; Knight, K.; Moyer, V.; Cheng, N. M.

1981-01-01

Comparisons are made between rawinsonde and satellite profiles in seven areas for a wide range of surface and weather conditions. Variables considered include temperature, dewpoint temperature, thickness, precipitable water, lapse rate of temperature, stability, geopotential height, mixing ratio, wind direction, wind speed, and kinematic parameters, including vorticity and the advection of vorticity and temperature. In addition, comparisons are made in the form of cross sections and synoptic fields for selected variables. Sounding data from the NIMBUS 6 and TIROS N satellites were used. Geostrophic wind computed from smoothed geopotential heights provided large scale flow patterns that agreed well with the rawinsonde wind fields. Surface wind patterns as well as magnitudes computed by use of the log law to extrapolate wind to a height of 10 m agreed with observations. Results of this study demonstrate rather conclusively that satellite profile data can be used to determine characteristics of large scale systems but that small scale features, such as frontal zones, cannot yet be resolved.

Impacts of beaver dams on hydrologic and temperature regimes in a mountain stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majerova, M.; Neilson, B. T.; Schmadel, N. M.; Wheaton, J. M.; Snow, C. J.

2015-01-01

Beaver dams affect hydrologic processes, channel complexity, and stream temperature by increasing inundated areas and influencing groundwater-surface water interactions. We explored the impacts of beaver dams on hydrologic and temperature regimes at different spatial and temporal scales within a mountain stream in northern Utah over a three-year period spanning pre- and post-beaver colonization. Using continuous stream discharge, stream temperature, synoptic tracer experiments, and groundwater elevation measurements we documented pre-beaver conditions in the first year of the study. In the second year, we captured the initial effects of three beaver dams, while the third year included the effects of ten dams. After beaver colonization, reach scale discharge observations showed a shift from slightly losing to gaining. However, at the smaller sub-reach scale, the discharge gains and losses increased in variability due to more complex flow pathways with beaver dams forcing overland flow and increasing surface and subsurface storage. At the reach scale, temperatures were found to increase by 0.38 °C (3.8%), which in part is explained by a 230% increase in mean reach residence time. At the smallest, beaver dam scale, there were notable increases in the thermal heterogeneity where warmer and cooler niches were created. Through the quantification of hydrologic and thermal changes at different spatial and temporal scales, we document increased variability during post-beaver colonization and highlight the need to understand the impacts of beaver dams on stream ecosystems and their potential role in stream restoration.

Coordinated Parameterization Development and Large-Eddy Simulation for Marine and Arctic Cloud-Topped Boundary Layers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bretherton, Christopher S.

2002-01-01

The goal of this project was to compare observations of marine and arctic boundary layers with: (1) parameterization systems used in climate and weather forecast models; and (2) two and three dimensional eddy resolving (LES) models for turbulent fluid flow. Based on this comparison, we hoped to better understand, predict, and parameterize the boundary layer structure and cloud amount, type, and thickness as functions of large scale conditions that are predicted by global climate models. The principal achievements of the project were as follows: (1) Development of a novel boundary layer parameterization for large-scale models that better represents the physical processes in marine boundary layer clouds; and (2) Comparison of column output from the ECMWF global forecast model with observations from the SHEBA experiment. Overall the forecast model did predict most of the major precipitation events and synoptic variability observed over the year of observation of the SHEBA ice camp.

Tropospheric energy cascades in a global circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brune, Sebastian; Becker, Erich

2010-05-01

The global horizontal kinetic energy (KE) spectrum and its budget are analyzed using results from a mechanistic GCM. The model has a standard spectral dynamical core with very high vertikal resolution up to the middle stratosphere (T330/L100). As a turbulence model we combine the Smagorinsky scheme with an energy conserving hyperdiffusion that is applied for the very smallest resolved scales. The simulation confirms a slope of the KE spectrum close to -3 in the synoptic regime where the KE is dominated by vortical modes. Towards the mesoscales the spectrum flattens and assumes a slope close to -5/3. Here divergent modes become increasingly important and even dominate the KE. Our complete analysis of the sinks and sources in the spectral KE budget reveals the overall energy fluxes through the spectrum. For the upper troposphere, the change of KE due to horizontal advection is negative for large synoptic scales. It is positive for the planetary scale, as expected, and for the mesoscales as well. This implies that the mesoscales, which include the dynamical sources of tropospheric gravity waves, are in fact sustained by the energy injection at the baroclinic scale (forward energy cascade). We find an enstrophy cascade in accordance with 2D turbulence, but zero downscaling of energy due to the vortical modes alone. In other words, the forward energy cascade in the synoptic and mesoscale regime is solely due to the divergent modes and their nonlinear interaction with the vortical modes. This picture, derived form a mechanistic model, not only lends further evidence for a generally forward energy cascade in the upper tropospheric away from the baroclinic scale. It also extends the picture proposed earlier by Tung and Orlando: The transition from a -3 to a -5/3 slope in the tropospheric macroturbulence spectrum reflects the fact, that the energy cascade due to the horizontally divergent (3D) modes is hidden behind the (2D) enstrophy cascade in the synoptic regime but dominates in the mesoscales.

Improving Prediction of Large-scale Regime Transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyakum, J. R.; Roebber, P.; Bosart, L. F.; Honor, A.; Bunker, E.; Low, Y.; Hart, J.; Bliankinshtein, N.; Kolly, A.; Atallah, E.; Huang, Y.

2017-12-01

Cool season atmospheric predictability over the CONUS on subseasonal times scales (1-4 weeks) is critically dependent upon the structure, configuration, and evolution of the North Pacific jet stream (NPJ). The NPJ can be perturbed on its tropical side on synoptic time scales by recurving and transitioning tropical cyclones (TCs) and on subseasonal time scales by longitudinally varying convection associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Likewise, the NPJ can be perturbed on its poleward side on synoptic time scales by midlatitude and polar disturbances that originate over the Asian continent. These midlatitude and polar disturbances can often trigger downstream Rossby wave propagation across the North Pacific, North America, and the North Atlantic. The project team is investigating the following multiscale processes and features: the spatiotemporal distribution of cyclone clustering over the Northern Hemisphere; cyclone clustering as influenced by atmospheric blocking and the phases and amplitudes of the major teleconnection indices, ENSO and the MJO; composite and case study analyses of representative cyclone clustering events to establish the governing dynamics; regime change predictability horizons associated with cyclone clustering events; Arctic air mass generation and modification; life cycles of the MJO; and poleward heat and moisture transports of subtropical air masses. A critical component of the study is weather regime classification. These classifications are defined through: the spatiotemporal clustering of surface cyclogenesis; a general circulation metric combining data at 500-hPa and the dynamic tropopause; Self Organizing Maps (SOM), constructed from dynamic tropopause and 850 hPa equivalent potential temperature data. The resultant lattice of nodes is used to categorize synoptic classes and their predictability, as well as to determine the robustness of the CFSv2 model climate relative to observations. Transition pathways between these synoptic classes, both in the observations and the CFSv2, are investigated. At a future point in the project, the results from these multiscale investigations will be integrated in the form of a prediction tool for important variables (temperatures, precipitation and their extremes) for the 1-4 week timeframe.

Marine Air Penetration: The Effect of Synoptic-scale Change on Regional Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Ullrich, P. A.

2016-12-01

Marine air penetration (MAP) around the California San Francisco Bay Delta region has a pronounced impact on local temperature and air quality, and is highly correlated with inland wind penetration and hence wind power generation. Observational MAP criteria are defined based on the 900hPa across-shore wind speed greater than or equal to 3m/s at the Oakland radiosonde station, and a surface temperature difference greater than or equal to 7 degrees Celsius between two California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) stations at Fresno, CA and Lodi, CA. This choice reflects marine cooling of Lodi, and was found to be highly correlated with inland specific humidity and breeze front activity. The observational MAP criteria were tuned based on small biases from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) to selected MAP days from CFSR, to identify synoptic-scale indicators associated with MAP events. A multivariate logistic regression model was constructed based on the selected five synoptic indicators from CFSR and demonstrated good model performance. Two synoptic-scale patterns were identified and analyzed out of the 32 categories from the regression model, suggesting a strong influence from the off-shore trough and the inland thermal ridge on MAP events. Future projection of MAP events included the 21st century Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and Variable resolution in the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM). Both showed no statistically significant trend associated with MAP events through the end of this century under both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5.

Contribution of large-scale midlatitude disturbances to hourly precipitation extremes in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbero, Renaud; Abatzoglou, John T.; Fowler, Hayley J.

2018-02-01

Midlatitude synoptic weather regimes account for a substantial portion of annual precipitation accumulation as well as multi-day precipitation extremes across parts of the United States (US). However, little attention has been devoted to understanding how synoptic-scale patterns contribute to hourly precipitation extremes. A majority of 1-h annual maximum precipitation (AMP) across the western US were found to be linked to two coherent midlatitude synoptic patterns: disturbances propagating along the jet stream, and cutoff upper-level lows. The influence of these two patterns on 1-h AMP varies geographically. Over 95% of 1-h AMP along the western coastal US were coincident with progressive midlatitude waves embedded within the jet stream, while over 30% of 1-h AMP across the interior western US were coincident with cutoff lows. Between 30-60% of 1-h AMP were coincident with the jet stream across the Ohio River Valley and southeastern US, whereas a a majority of 1-h AMP over the rest of central and eastern US were not found to be associated with either midlatitude synoptic features. Composite analyses for 1-h AMP days coincident to cutoff lows and jet stream show that an anomalous moisture flux and upper-level dynamics are responsible for initiating instability and setting up an environment conducive to 1-h AMP events. While hourly precipitation extremes are generally thought to be purely convective in nature, this study shows that large-scale dynamics and baroclinic disturbances may also contribute to precipitation extremes on sub-daily timescales.

The measurement of the synoptic scale wind over the ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierson, W. J.

1982-01-01

Mesoscale and microscale features of the turbulent winds over the ocean are related to the synoptic scale winds in terms of published spectral forms for the microscale, a mesoscale valley and published values of U*, VAR u', VAR v' and z/L, as defined in the text and as obtained for moderate to gale force winds. The frequencies involved correspond to periods longer than 1 hour and extend to the microscale, which starts at a period near 2 minutes, or so, and continues to the Kolmogorov inertial range. Nondimensional spectra that span both the mesoscale and the microscale are derived as a function of u, f(= n z/u) and z/L, where z is 10 meters, L is the Monin Obukov stability length and u is evaluated at 10 meters. For the same u, different values of z/L produce a range of values of u which in turn result in variations of the eddy structure of the mesoscale and microscale spectra. Both conventional anemometer averages and remotely sensed winds contain a random component of the mesoscale wind in their values. These components are differnces and not errors when winds are compared, and quantitative values for these differences are given. Ways to improve the measurement of the synoptic scale wind by transient ships, data buoys and scatterometers on future spacecraft are described. These ways are loner averaging times for ships and data buoys, depending on the synoptic conditions, and pooling spacecraft to form super observations. Design considerations for future remote sensing systems are given.

Repeat synoptic sampling reveals drivers of change in carbon and nutrient chemistry of Arctic catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarnetske, J. P.; Abbott, B. W.; Bowden, W. B.; Iannucci, F.; Griffin, N.; Parker, S.; Pinay, G.; Aanderud, Z.

2017-12-01

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nutrients, and other solute concentrations are increasing in rivers across the Arctic. Two hypotheses have been proposed to explain these trends: 1. distributed, top-down permafrost degradation, and 2. discrete, point-source delivery of DOC and nutrients from permafrost collapse features (thermokarst). While long-term monitoring at a single station cannot discriminate between these mechanisms, synoptic sampling of multiple points in the stream network could reveal the spatial structure of solute sources. In this context, we sampled carbon and nutrient chemistry three times over two years in 119 subcatchments of three distinct Arctic catchments (North Slope, Alaska). Subcatchments ranged from 0.1 to 80 km2, and included three distinct types of Arctic landscapes - mountainous, tundra, and glacial-lake catchments. We quantified the stability of spatial patterns in synoptic water chemistry and analyzed high-frequency time series from the catchment outlets across the thaw season to identify source areas for DOC, nutrients, and major ions. We found that variance in solute concentrations between subcatchments collapsed at spatial scales between 1 to 20 km2, indicating a continuum of diffuse- and point-source dynamics, depending on solute and catchment characteristics (e.g. reactivity, topography, vegetation, surficial geology). Spatially-distributed mass balance revealed conservative transport of DOC and nitrogen, and indicates there may be strong in-stream retention of phosphorus, providing a network-scale confirmation of previous reach-scale studies in these Arctic catchments. Overall, we present new approaches to analyzing synoptic data for change detection and quantification of ecohydrological mechanisms in ecosystems in the Arctic and beyond.

Selenium in the upper Blackfoot River watershed, southeastern Idaho, 2001-12

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mebane, Christopher A.; Mladenka, Greg; Van Every, Lynn; Williams, Marshall L.; Hardy, Mark A.; Garbarino, John R.

2014-11-05

For the annual spring synoptic samples collected by the IDEQ along the main stem Blackfoot River and major tributaries, selenium concentrations ranged from less than 2 to 870 μg/L in 176 samples. In most years, the synoptic sampling showed that the majority of the selenium loads passing the USGS streamgage at the outlet of the watershed could be attributed to a single tributary, East Mill Creek, which enters the Blackfoot River through Spring Creek. Selenium loads decreased by about half from East Mill Creek before reaching the Blackfoot River, suggesting that much selenium is at least temporarily removed from the water column by uptake by aquatic vegetation or by losses to sediment. Similar decreases in selenium loads occurred through the main stem Blackfoot River before reaching the outlet in low flow years, but not in high flow years.

Summarising climate and air quality (ozone) data on self-organising maps: a Sydney case study.

PubMed

Jiang, Ningbo; Betts, Alan; Riley, Matt

2016-02-01

This paper explores the classification and visualisation utility of the self-organising map (SOM) method in the context of New South Wales (NSW), Australia, using gridded NCEP/NCAR geopotential height reanalysis for east Australia, together with multi-site meteorological and air quality data for Sydney from the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage Air Quality Monitoring Network. A twice-daily synoptic classification has been derived for east Australia for the period of 1958-2012. The classification has not only reproduced the typical synoptic patterns previously identified in the literature but also provided an opportunity to visualise the subtle, non-linear change in the eastward-migrating synoptic systems influencing NSW (including Sydney). The summarisation of long-term, multi-site air quality/meteorological data from the Sydney basin on the SOM plane has identified a set of typical air pollution/meteorological spatial patterns in the region. Importantly, the examination of these patterns in relation to synoptic weather types has provided important visual insights into how local and synoptic meteorological conditions interact with each other and affect the variability of air quality in tandem. The study illustrates that while synoptic circulation types are influential, the within-type variability in mesoscale flows plays a critical role in determining local ozone levels in Sydney. These results indicate that the SOM can be a useful tool for assessing the impact of weather and climatic conditions on air quality in the regional airshed. This study further promotes the use of the SOM method in environmental research.

Numerical simulation of tornadoes' meteorological conditions over Greece: A case study of tornadic activity over NW Peloponnese on March 25, 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsangouras, Ioannis T.; Nastos, Panagiotis T.; Pytharoulis, Ioannis

2014-05-01

Recent research revealed that NW Peloponnese, Greece is an area that favours pre-frontal tornadic incidence. This study presents the results of the synoptic analysis of the meteorological conditions during a tornado event over NW Peloponnese on March 25, 2009. Further, the role of topography in tornado genesis is examined. The tornado was formed approximately at 10:30 UTC, south-west of Vardas village, crossed the Nea Manolada and faded away at Lappas village, causing several damage. The length of its track was approximately 9-10 km and this tornado was characterized as F2 (Fujita scale) or T4-T5 in TORRO intensity scale. Synoptic analysis was based on ECMWF datasets, as well as on daily composite mean and anomaly of the geopotential heights at the middle and lower troposphere from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In addition, numerous datasets derived from weather observations and remote sensing were used in order to interpret better the examined extreme event. Finally, a numerical simulation was performed using the non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), initialized with ECMWF gridded analyses, with telescoping nested grids that allow the representation of atmospheric circulations ranging from the synoptic scale down to the meso-scale. In the numerical simulations the topography of the inner grid was modified by: a) 0% (actual topography) and b) -100% (without topography).

Numerical modeling and analysis of the effect of Greek complex topography on tornado genesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsangouras, I. T.; Pytharoulis, I.; Nastos, P. T.

2014-02-01

Tornadoes have been reported in Greece over the last decades in specific sub-geographical areas and have been associated with strong synoptic forcing. It is well known that meteorological conditions over Greece are affected at various scales by the significant variability of topography, the Ionian Sea at the west and the Aegean Sea at the east. However, there is still uncertainty regarding topography's importance on tornadic generation and development. The aim of this study is to investigate the role of topography in significant tornado genesis events that were triggered under strong synoptic scale forcing over Greece. Three tornado events that occurred over the last years in Thiva (Boeotia, 17 November 2007), Vrastema (Chalkidiki, 12 February 2010) and Vlychos (Lefkada, 20 September 2011) have been selected for numerical experiments. These events were associated with synoptic scale forcing, while their intensity was T4-T5 (Torro scale) and caused significant damage. The simulations were performed using the non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), initialized with ECMWF gridded analyses, with telescoping nested grids that allow the representation of atmospheric circulations ranging from the synoptic scale down to the meso scale. In the experiments the topography of the inner grid was modified by: (a) 0% (actual topography) and (b) -100% (without topography). The aim was to determine whether the occurrence of tornadoes - mainly identified by various severe weather instability indices - could be indicated by modifying topography. The main utilized instability variables concerned the Bulk Richardson number shear (BRN), the energy helicity index (EHI), the storm-relative environmental helicity (SRH) and the maximum convective available potential energy (MCAPE, for parcel with maximum theta-e). Additional a verification of model was conducted for every sensitivity experiment accompanied with analysis absolute vorticity budget. Numerical simulations revealed that the complex topography was denoted as an important factor during 17 November 2007 and 12 February 2010 events, based on EHI and BRN analyses. Topography around 20 September 2011 event was characterized as the least factor based on EHI, SRH, BRN analyses.

Traveling Weather Disturbances in Mars Southern Extratropics: Sway of the Great Impact Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

2016-01-01

As on Earth, between late autumn and early spring on Mars middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal contrasts between the equator and poles (i.e. "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e. transient synoptic-period waves). Within a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, such large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. These wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and moreover generalized tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water vapor and water-ice clouds) between low and high latitudes of the planet. The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This global circulation model imposes interactively lifted (and radiatively active) dust based on a threshold value of the instantaneous surface stress. Compared to observations, the model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e. globally averaged, a more dusty atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). In contrast to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense synoptically. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e. east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather disturbances are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars' full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating essential large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars' transient barotropic/baroclinic eddies are significantly influenced by the great impact basins of this hemisphere (e.g., Argyre and Hellas). In addition, the occurrence of a southern storm zone in late winter and early spring is keyed particularly to the western hemisphere via orographic influences arising from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate fundamental differences amongst such simulations and these are described.

Traveling Weather Disturbances in Mars' Southern Extratropics: Sway of the Great Impact Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

2016-04-01

As on Earth, between late autumn and early spring on Mars middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal contrasts between the equator and poles (i.e., "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Within a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, such large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. These wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and moreover generalized tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water vapor and water-ice clouds) between low and high latitudes of the planet. The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This global circulation model imposes interactively lifted (and radiatively active) dust based on a threshold value of the instantaneous surface stress. Compared to observations, the model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a more dusty atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). In contrast to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense synoptically. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather disturbances are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars' full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating essential large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars' transient barotropic/baroclinic eddies are significantly influenced by the great impact basins of this hemisphere (e.g., Argyre and Hellas). In addition, the occurrence of a southern storm zone in late winter and early spring is keyed particularly to the western hemisphere via orographic influences arising from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate fundamental differences amongst such simulations and these are described.

Towards a study of synoptic-scale variability of the California current system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

A West Coast satellite time series advisory group was established to consider the scientific rationale for the development of complete west coast time series of imagery of sea surface temperature (as derived by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer on the NOAA polar orbiter, and near-surface phytoplankton pigment concentrations (as derived by the Coastal Zone Color Scanner on Nimbus 7). The scientific and data processing requirements for such time series are also considered. It is determined that such time series are essential if a number of scientific questions regarding the synoptic-scale dynamics of the California Current System are to be addressed. These questions concern both biological and physical processes.

Photochemical oxidant transport - Mesoscale lake breeze and synoptic-scale aspects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyons, W. A.; Cole, H. S.

1976-01-01

Data from routine ozone monitoring in southeastern Wisconsin and limited monitoring of the Milwaukee area by the Environmental Protection Agency are examined. Hourly averages as high as 30 pphm have been recorded in southeastern Wisconsin, and high readings have been reported in rural regions throughout the state. The observations indicate that photochemical oxidants and their nitrogen oxide and reactive hydrocarbon precursers advect from Chicago and northern Indiana into southeastern Wisconsin. There is evidence that synoptic-scale transport of photochemical oxidants occurs, allowing the pollution of entire anticyclones. These results cast doubt on the validity of the Air Quality Control Regions established by amendment to the Clean Air Act of 1970.

Analysis of Delayed Sea Breeze Onset for Fort Ord Prescribed Burning Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

Gahmberg et al. (2009) provided additional detail to the synoptic flow through the Coriolis effect . All directions are as seen from the sea with...ambient flows left of the offshore direction providing the strongest opposing winds as Coriolis effects provide additional support in the offshore...support the development of the sea breeze due to Coriolis effects , the mesoscale flow at the surface is quite different. The 1600 UTC through 1900

Impact of synoptic weather patterns on 24 h-average PM2.5 concentrations in the North China Plain during 2013-2017.

PubMed

Zhang, Hao; Yuan, Haiou; Liu, Xiaohui; Yu, Junyi; Jiao, Yongli

2018-06-15

North China Plain area (NCP) is one of the most densely populated and heavily polluted regions in the world. In the last five years, frequently happened fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) serious pollution events were one of the top environmental concerns in China. As PM 2.5 concentrations are highly influenced by synoptic flow patterns and local meteorological conditions, a two-stage hierarchical clustering method based on dynamic principal component analysis (DPCA) and standard k-means clustering algorithm was employed to classify synoptic wind fields into 6 patterns over the NCP area using the data of 5 PM 2.5 seasons (Sept. 15th-Apr. 15th) from 2013 to 2017. Among the six identified synoptic patterns, pattern of uniform pressure field (U) and that of zonal high pressure (Z H ) accounted for 78.21%, 65.55%, 63.56%, 57.11%, 59.13% and 58.27% studied heavy smog pollution events in Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, Baoding, Shijiazhuang and Xingtai city. The two particular patterns were associated with uniform pressure field and sparsely latitudinal isobar in 850 hPa level, respectively. They were also characterized by high relative humidity, low temperature, low-speed northerly wind in Tianjin and Tangshan, and southerly wind in the other cities. Under the continuous control of pattern Z H , the values of 24 h-average PM 2.5 were found to increase at a rate of 31.78 μg/m 3 per day. To evaluate the contribution of meteorological factors and precursors to PM 2.5 levels, linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) were applied to establish relations among 24 h-average PM 2.5 concentrations, concentrations of main precursors, local meteorological factors and synoptic patterns. Results show that the variations of precursors, local meteorological factors and synoptic flow patterns can explain 51.67%, 19.15% and 14.01% changes of the 24 h-average PM 2.5 concentrations, respectively. This study illustrates that dense precursor emissions are still the main cause for heavy haze pollution events, although meteorological conditions play almost equal roles sometimes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vacillations induced by interference of stationary and traveling planetary waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salby, Murry L.; Garcia, Rolando R.

1987-01-01

The interference pattern produced when a traveling planetary wave propagates over a stationary forced wave is explored, examining the interference signature in a variety of diagnostics. The wave field is first restricted to a diatomic spectrum consisting of two components: a single stationary wave and a single monochromatic traveling wave. A simple barotropic normal mode propagating over a simple stationary plane wave is considered, and closed form solutions are obtained. The wave fields are then restricted spatially, providing more realistic structures without sacrificing the advantages of an analytical solution. Both stationary and traveling wave fields are calculated numerically with the linearized Primitive Equations in a realistic basic state. The mean flow reaction to the fluctuating eddy forcing which results from interference is derived. Synoptic geopotential behavior corresponding to the combined wave and mean flow fields is presented, and the synoptic signature in potential vorticity on isentropic surfaces is examined.

Combination of synoptical-analogous and dynamical methods to increase skill score of monthly air temperature forecasts over Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Valentina; Tscepelev, Valery; Vilfand, Roman; Kulikova, Irina; Kruglova, Ekaterina; Tischenko, Vladimir

2016-04-01

Long-range forecasts at monthly-seasonal time scale are in great demand of socio-economic sectors for exploiting climate-related risks and opportunities. At the same time, the quality of long-range forecasts is not fully responding to user application necessities. Different approaches, including combination of different prognostic models, are used in forecast centers to increase the prediction skill for specific regions and globally. In the present study, two forecasting methods are considered which are exploited in operational practice of Hydrometeorological Center of Russia. One of them is synoptical-analogous method of forecasting of surface air temperature at monthly scale. Another one is dynamical system based on the global semi-Lagrangian model SL-AV, developed in collaboration of Institute of Numerical Mathematics and Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia. The seasonal version of this model has been used to issue global and regional forecasts at monthly-seasonal time scales. This study presents results of the evaluation of surface air temperature forecasts generated with using above mentioned synoptical-statistical and dynamical models, and their combination to potentially increase skill score over Northern Eurasia. The test sample of operational forecasts is encompassing period from 2010 through 2015. The seasonal and interannual variability of skill scores of these methods has been discussed. It was noticed that the quality of all forecasts is highly dependent on the inertia of macro-circulation processes. The skill scores of forecasts are decreasing during significant alterations of synoptical fields for both dynamical and empirical schemes. Procedure of combination of forecasts from different methods, in some cases, has demonstrated its effectiveness. For this study the support has been provided by Grant of Russian Science Foundation (№14-37-00053).

Improving Synoptic and Intra-Seasonnal Variability in CFS via a Better Representation of Organized Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khouider, B.; Goswami, B. B.; Majda, A.; Krishna, R. P. M. M.; Mukhopadhyay, P.

2016-12-01

Improvements in the capability of climate models to realistically capture the synoptic and intra-seasonnal variability, associated with tropical rainfall, are conditioned by improvement in the representation of the subgrid variability due to organized convection and the underlying two-way interactions through multiple scales and thus breaking with the quasi-equilibrium bottleneck. By design, the stochastic multi-cloud model (SMCM) mimics the life cycle of organized tropical convective systems and the interactions of the associated cloud types with each other and with large scales, as it is observed. It is based a lattice particle interaction model for predefined microscopic (subgrid) sites that make random transitions from one cloud type to another conditional to the large scale state. In return the SMCM provides the cloud type area fractions on the form of a Markov chain model which can be run in parallel with the climate model without any significant computational overhead. The SMCM was previously successfully tested in both reduced complexity tropical models and an aquaplanet global atmospheric model. Here, we report for the first time the results of its implementation in the fully coupled NCEP climate model (CFSv2) through the used of prescribed vertical profiles of heating and drying obtained from observations. While many known biases in CFSv2 have been slightly improved there are no noticeable degradation in the simulated mean climatology. Nonetheless, comparison with observations show that the improvements in terms of synoptic and intra-seasonnal variability are spectacular, despite the fact that CFSv2 is one of the best models in this regard. In particular, while CFSv2 exaggerates the intra-seasonnal variance at the expense of the synoptic contribution, the CFS-SMCM shows a good balance between the two as in the observations.

Local and synoptic controls on rapid supraglacial lake drainage in West Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, Andrew; Banwell, Alison; Arnold, Neil; Willis, Ian

2016-04-01

Many supraglacial lakes within the ablation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) are known to drain rapidly (in <1 day) in the mid- to late melt season, delivering large meltwater pulses to the subglacial drainage system, thus affecting basal water pressures and ice-sheet dynamics. Although it is now generally recognised that rapid lake drainage is caused by hydrofracture, the precise controls on hydrofracture initiation remain poorly understood: they may be linked to a local critical water-volume threshold, or they may be associated with synoptic-scale factors, such as ice thickness, driving stresses, ice velocities and strain rates. A combination of the local water-volume threshold and one or more synoptic-scale factors may explain the overall patterns of rapid lake drainage, but this requires verification using targeted field- and remotely-based studies that cover large areas of the GrIS and span long timescales. Here, we investigate a range of potential controls on rapid supraglacial lake drainage in the land-terminating Paakitsoq region of the ice sheet, northeast of Jakobshavn Isbræ, for the 2014 melt season. We have analysed daily 250-m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery in order to calculate lake areas, depths and volumes, and have developed an automatic lake-tracking algorithm to determine the dates on which all rapid lake drainage events occur. For each rapidly draining lake, the water volumes immediately prior to drainage are compared with other local factors, notably lake-filling rate and ice thickness, and with a variety of synoptic-scale features, such as slope angles, driving stresses, surface velocities, surface strain rates and the incidence of nearby lake-drainage events. We present the outcomes of our statistical analysis to elicit the statistically significant controls on hydrofracture beneath supraglacial lakes.

Surface features of central North America: a synoptic view from computer graphics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pike, R.J.

1991-01-01

A digital shaded-relief image of the 48 contiguous United States shows the details of large- and small-scale landforms, including several linear trends. The features faithfully reflect tectonism, continental glaciation, fluvial activity, volcanism, and other surface-shaping events and processes. The new map not only depicts topography accurately and in its true complexity, but does so in one synoptic view that provides a regional context for geologic analysis unobscured by clouds, culture, vegetation, or artistic constraints. -Author

A Coastal Bay Summer Breeze Study, Part 2: High-resolution Numerical Simulation of Sea-breeze Local Influences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calmet, Isabelle; Mestayer, Patrice G.; van Eijk, Alexander M. J.; Herlédant, Olivier

2018-04-01

We complete the analysis of the data obtained during the experimental campaign around the semi circular bay of Quiberon, France, during two weeks in June 2006 (see Part 1). A reanalysis of numerical simulations performed with the Advanced Regional Prediction System model is presented. Three nested computational domains with increasing horizontal resolution down to 100 m, and a vertical resolution of 10 m at the lowest level, are used to reproduce the local-scale variations of the breeze close to the water surface of the bay. The Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model is used to assimilate the meteorological data. Comparisons of the simulations with the experimental data obtained at three sites reveal a good agreement of the flow over the bay and around the Quiberon peninsula during the daytime periods of sea-breeze development and weakening. In conditions of offshore synoptic flow, the simulations demonstrate that the semi-circular shape of the bay induces a corresponding circular shape in the offshore zones of stagnant flow preceding the sea-breeze onset, which move further offshore thereafter. The higher-resolution simulations are successful in reproducing the small-scale impacts of the peninsula and local coasts (breeze deviations, wakes, flow divergences), and in demonstrating the complexity of the breeze fields close to the surface over the bay. Our reanalysis also provides guidance for numerical simulation strategies for analyzing the structure and evolution of the near-surface breeze over a semi-circular bay, and for forecasting important flow details for use in upcoming sailing competitions.

Landscape Characteristics and Variations in Longitudinal Stream Flow Contribution in two Headwater Semi-Arid Mountain Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shakespeare, B.; Gooseff, M. N.

2005-12-01

Understanding what role particular catchment attributes (slope, aspect, landcover, and contributing area) play in the contribution of stream flow is important for land management decisions, especially in the semi-arid western areas of the United States. Our study site is paired small catchments (approximately 9 and 11 km2) in the headwaters of the Weber drainage basin in Northern Utah. These catchments are surrounded by Wasatch formation with loamy textured soils. One catchment is predominantly underlain by quartzite while the other catchment is mostly underlain by limestone. We measured lateral flow gains every 200 to 400 meters using salt dilution gauging techniques throughout the ~5 km long streams. These measurements were taken synoptically 3 times during the seasonal discharge recession (summer 2005). The flows ranged spatially from 4 L s-1 to 55 L s-1 and varied temporally by as much as 50% when comparing the same reaches. Using GIS software, landscape analysis of slope, aspect, contributing area, topographic convergence, riparian and hillslope area, and landcover was performed for each of the delineated stream reach contributing areas. The results were tested for correlations between lateral flow gains measured in the field and different landscape characteristics. Each of the synoptic events was compared with each other to explore effects of seasonal recession on the relationships between flow gain and landscape characteristics.

Snowfall in the Northwest Iberian Peninsula: Synoptic Circulation Patterns and Their Influence on Snow Day Trends

PubMed Central

Merino, Andrés; Fernández, Sergio; Hermida, Lucía; López, Laura; Sánchez, José Luis; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Gascón, Estíbaliz

2014-01-01

In recent decades, a decrease in snowfall attributed to the effects of global warming (among other causes) has become evident. However, it is reasonable to investigate meteorological causes for such decrease, by analyzing changes in synoptic scale patterns. On the Iberian Peninsula, the Castilla y León region in the northwest consists of a central plateau surrounded by mountain ranges. This creates snowfalls that are considered both an important water resource and a transportation risk. In this work, we develop a classification of synoptic situations that produced important snowfalls at observation stations in the major cities of Castilla y León from 1960 to 2011. We used principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster techniques to define four synoptic patterns conducive to snowfall in the region. Once we confirmed homogeneity of the series and serial correlation of the snowfallday records at the stations from 1960 to 2011, we carried out a Mann-Kendall test. The results show a negative trend at most stations, so there are a decreased number of snowfall days. Finally, variations in these meteorological variables were related to changes in the frequencies of snow events belonging to each synoptic pattern favorable for snowfall production at the observatory locations. PMID:25152912

Atmospheric circulation patterns and spatial climatic variations in Beringia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mock, Cary J.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Patricia M.

1998-08-01

Analyses of more than 40 years of climatic data reveal intriguing spatial variations in climatic patterns for Beringia (North-eastern Siberia and Alaska), aiding the understanding of the hierarchy of climatic controls that operate at different spatial scales within the Arctic. A synoptic climatology, using a subjective classification methodology on January and July sea level pressure, and July 500 hPa height anomaly patterns, identified 13 major atmospheric circulation patterns (26 pairs consisting of 13 synoptic/temperature and 13 synoptic/precipitation comparisons) that occur over Beringia. Composite anomaly maps of circulation, temperature, and precipitation described the spatial variability of surface climatic responses to circulation. Results indicate that nine synoptic pairs yield homogeneous surface climatic anomaly patterns throughout most of Beringia. However, many of the surface climatic responses illustrate heterogeneous anomaly patterns as a result of variations in circulation controls, such as troughing over East Asia and the Pacific subtropical high superimposed over topography, with small shifts in atmospheric circulation dramatically altering spatial variations of anomaly patterns. Distinctive contrasts in climatic responses, as suggested from ten synoptic pairs, are clearly evident for Western Beringia versus Eastern Beringia. These results offer important implications for scholars interested in assessing late Quaternary climatic change in the region from interannual to millennial timescales.

The imprint of surface fluxes and transport on variations in total column carbon dioxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keppel-Aleks, G.; Wennberg, P. O.; Washenfelder, R. A.; Wunch, D.; Schneider, T.; Toon, G. C.; Andres, R. J.; Blavier, J.-F.; Connor, B.; Davis, K. J.; Desai, A. R.; Messerschmidt, J.; Notholt, J.; Roehl, C. M.; Sherlock, V.; Stephens, B. B.; Vay, S. A.; Wofsy, S. C.

2011-07-01

New observations of the vertically integrated CO2 mixing ratio, ⟨CO2⟩, from ground-based remote sensing show that variations in ⟨CO2⟩ are primarily determined by large-scale flux patterns. They therefore provide fundamentally different information than observations made within the boundary layer, which reflect the combined influence of large scale and local fluxes. Observations of both ⟨CO2⟩ and CO2 concentrations in the free troposphere show that large-scale spatial gradients induce synoptic-scale temporal variations in ⟨CO2⟩ in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes through horizontal advection. Rather than obscure the signature of surface fluxes on atmospheric CO2, these synoptic-scale variations provide useful information that can be used to reveal the meridional flux distribution. We estimate the meridional gradient in ⟨CO2⟩ from covariations in ⟨CO2⟩ and potential temperature, θ, a dynamical tracer, on synoptic timescales to evaluate surface flux estimates commonly used in carbon cycle models. We find that Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) biospheric fluxes underestimate both the ⟨CO2⟩ seasonal cycle amplitude throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes as well as the meridional gradient during the growing season. Simulations using CASA net ecosystem exchange (NEE) with increased and phase-shifted boreal fluxes better reflect the observations. Our simulations suggest that boreal growing season NEE (between 45-65° N) is underestimated by ~40 % in CASA. We describe the implications for this large seasonal exchange on inference of the net Northern Hemisphere terrestrial carbon sink.

The imprint of surface fluxes and transport on variations in total column carbon dioxide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keppel-Aleks, G; Wennberg, PO; Washenfelder, RA

2012-01-01

New observations of the vertically integrated CO{sub 2} mixing ratio, , from ground-based remote sensing show that variations in are primarily determined by large-scale flux patterns. They therefore provide fundamentally different information than observations made within the boundary layer, which reflect the combined influence of large-scale and local fluxes. Observations of both and CO{sub 2} concentrations in the free troposphere show that large-scale spatial gradients induce synoptic-scale temporal variations in in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes through horizontal advection. Rather than obscure the signature of surface fluxes on atmospheric CO{sub 2}, these synoptic-scale variationsmore » provide useful information that can be used to reveal the meridional flux distribution. We estimate the meridional gradient in from covariations in and potential temperature, {theta}, a dynamical tracer, on synoptic timescales to evaluate surface flux estimates commonly used in carbon cycle models. We find that simulations using Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) biospheric fluxes underestimate both the seasonal cycle amplitude throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and the meridional gradient during the growing season. Simulations using CASA net ecosystem exchange (NEE) with increased and phase-shifted boreal fluxes better fit the observations. Our simulations suggest that climatological mean CASA fluxes underestimate boreal growing season NEE (between 45-65{sup o} N) by {approx}40%. We describe the implications for this large seasonal exchange on inference of the net Northern Hemisphere terrestrial carbon sink.« less

The imprint of surface fluxes and transport on variations in total column carbon dioxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keppel-Aleks, G.; Wennberg, P. O.; Washenfelder, R. A.; Wunch, D.; Schneider, T.; Toon, G. C.; Andres, R. J.; Blavier, J.-F.; Connor, B.; Davis, K. J.; Desai, A. R.; Messerschmidt, J.; Notholt, J.; Roehl, C. M.; Sherlock, V.; Stephens, B. B.; Vay, S. A.; Wofsy, S. C.

2012-03-01

New observations of the vertically integrated CO2 mixing ratio, ⟨CO2⟩, from ground-based remote sensing show that variations in CO2⟩ are primarily determined by large-scale flux patterns. They therefore provide fundamentally different information than observations made within the boundary layer, which reflect the combined influence of large-scale and local fluxes. Observations of both ⟨CO2⟩ and CO2 concentrations in the free troposphere show that large-scale spatial gradients induce synoptic-scale temporal variations in ⟨CO2⟩ in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes through horizontal advection. Rather than obscure the signature of surface fluxes on atmospheric CO2, these synoptic-scale variations provide useful information that can be used to reveal the meridional flux distribution. We estimate the meridional gradient in ⟨CO2⟩ from covariations in ⟨CO2⟩ and potential temperature, θ, a dynamical tracer, on synoptic timescales to evaluate surface flux estimates commonly used in carbon cycle models. We find that simulations using Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) biospheric fluxes underestimate both the ⟨CO2⟩ seasonal cycle amplitude throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and the meridional gradient during the growing season. Simulations using CASA net ecosystem exchange (NEE) with increased and phase-shifted boreal fluxes better fit the observations. Our simulations suggest that climatological mean CASA fluxes underestimate boreal growing season NEE (between 45-65° N) by ~40%. We describe the implications for this large seasonal exchange on inference of the net Northern Hemisphere terrestrial carbon sink.

Identifying relationships between baseflow geochemistry and land use with synoptic sampling and R-Mode factor analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wayland, Karen G.; Long, David T.; Hyndman, David W.; Pijanowski, Bryan C.; Woodhams, Sarah M.; Haak, Sheridan K.

2003-01-01

The relationship between land use and stream chemistry is often explored through synoptic sampling rivers at baseflow condition. However, base flow chemistry is likely to vary temporally and spatially with land use. The purpose of our study is to examine the usefulness of the synoptic sampling approach for identifying the relationship between complex land use configurations and stream water quality. This study compares biogeochemical data from three synoptic sampling events representing the temporal variability of baseflow chemistry and land use using R-mode factor analysis. Separate R-mode factor analyses of the data from individual sampling events yielded only two consistent factors. Agricultural activity was associated with elevated levels of Ca2+, Mg2+, alkalinity, and frequently K+, SO42-, and NO3-. Urban areas were associated with higher concentrations of Na+, K+, and Cl-. Other retained factors were not  consistent among sampling events, and some factors were difficult to interpret in the context of biogeochemical sources and processes. When all data were combined, further associations were revealed such as an inverse relationship between the proportion of wetlands and stream nitrate concentrations. We also found that barren lands were associated with elevated sulfate levels. This research suggests that an individual sampling event is unlikely to characterize adequately the complex processes controlling interactions between land uses and stream chemistry. Combining data collected over two years during three synoptic sampling events appears to enhance our ability to understand processes linking stream chemistry and land use.  

Numerical modeling and analysis of the effect of complex Greek topography on tornadogenesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsangouras, I. T.; Pytharoulis, I.; Nastos, P. T.

2014-07-01

Tornadoes have been reported in Greece over recent decades in specific sub-geographical areas and have been associated with strong synoptic forcing. While it has been established that meteorological conditions over Greece are affected at various scales by the significant variability of topography, the Ionian Sea to the west and the Aegean Sea to the east, there is still uncertainty regarding topography's importance on tornadic generation and development. The aim of this study is to investigate the role of topography in significant tornadogenesis events that were triggered under strong synoptic scale forcing over Greece. Three tornado events that occurred over the last years in Thebes (Boeotia, 17 November 2007), Vrastema (Chalkidiki, 12 February 2010) and Vlychos (Lefkada, 20 September 2011) were selected for numerical experiments. These events were associated with synoptic scale forcing, while their intensities were T4-T5 (on the TORRO scale), causing significant damage. The simulations were performed using the non-hydrostatic weather research and forecasting model (WRF), initialized by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) gridded analyses, with telescoping nested grids that allow for the representation of atmospheric circulations ranging from the synoptic scale down to the mesoscale. In the experiments, the topography of the inner grid was modified by: (a) 0% (actual topography) and (b) -100% (without topography), making an effort to determine whether the occurrence of tornadoes - mainly identified by various severe weather instability indices - could be indicated by modifying topography. The principal instability variables employed consisted of the bulk Richardson number (BRN) shear, the energy helicity index (EHI), the storm-relative environmental helicity (SRH), and the maximum convective available potential energy (MCAPE, for parcels with maximum θe). Additionally, a model verification was conducted for every sensitivity experiment accompanied by analysis of the absolute vorticity budget. Numerical simulations revealed that the complex topography constituted an important factor during the 17 November 2007 and 12 February 2010 events, based on EHI, SRH, BRN, and MCAPE analyses. Conversely, topography around the 20 September 2011 event was characterized as the least significant factor based on EHI, SRH, BRN, and MCAPE analyses.

Scale Interactions in the Tropics from a Simple Multi-Cloud Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, X.; Biello, J. A.

2017-12-01

Our lack of a complete understanding of the interaction between the moisture convection and equatorial waves remains an impediment in the numerical simulation of large-scale organization, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The aim of this project is to understand interactions across spatial scales in the tropics from a simplified framework for scale interactions while a using a simplified framework to describe the basic features of moist convection. Using multiple asymptotic scales, Biello and Majda[1] derived a multi-scale model of moist tropical dynamics (IMMD[1]), which separates three regimes: the planetary scale climatology, the synoptic scale waves, and the planetary scale anomalies regime. The scales and strength of the observed MJO would categorize it in the regime of planetary scale anomalies - which themselves are forced from non-linear upscale fluxes from the synoptic scales waves. In order to close this model and determine whether it provides a self-consistent theory of the MJO. A model for diabatic heating due to moist convection must be implemented along with the IMMD. The multi-cloud parameterization is a model proposed by Khouider and Majda[2] to describe the three basic cloud types (congestus, deep and stratiform) that are most responsible for tropical diabatic heating. We implement a simplified version of the multi-cloud model that is based on results derived from large eddy simulations of convection [3]. We present this simplified multi-cloud model and show results of numerical experiments beginning with a variety of convective forcing states. Preliminary results on upscale fluxes, from synoptic scales to planetary scale anomalies, will be presented. [1] Biello J A, Majda A J. Intraseasonal multi-scale moist dynamics of the tropical atmosphere[J]. Communications in Mathematical Sciences, 2010, 8(2): 519-540. [2] Khouider B, Majda A J. A simple multicloud parameterization for convectively coupled tropical waves. Part I: Linear analysis[J]. Journal of the atmospheric sciences, 2006, 63(4): 1308-1323. [3] Dorrestijn J, Crommelin D T, Biello J A, et al. A data-driven multi-cloud model for stochastic parametrization of deep convection[J]. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2013, 371(1991): 20120374.

On the Behavior of Velocity Fluctuations in Rapidly Rotating Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Girimaji, S. S.; Ristorcelli, J. R.

1997-01-01

The behavior of velocity fluctuations subjected to rapid rotation is examined. The rapid rotation considered is any arbitrary combination of two basic forms of rotation, reference frame rotation and mean flow rotation. It is recognized that the two types of rotating flows differ in the manner in which the fluctuating fields are advected. The first category is comprised of flows in rotating systems of which synoptic scale geophysical flows are a good example. In this class of flows the fluctuating velocity field advects and rotates with the mean flow. In the rapid rotation limit, the Taylor-Proudman theorem describes the behavior of this class of fluctuations. Velocity fluctuations that are advected without rotation by the mean flow constitute the second category which includes vortical flows of aerodynamic interest. The Taylor-Proudman theorem is not pertinent to I his class flows and a new result appropriate to this second category of fluctuations is derived. The present development demonstrates that the fluctuating velocity fields are rendered two-dimensional and horizontally non-divergent in the limit of any large combination of reference frame rotation and mean-flow rotation. The concommitant 'geostrophic' balance of the momentum equation is, however, dependent upon the form of rapid rotation. It is also demonstrated that the evolution equations of a two-dimensional fluctuating velocity fields are frame-indifferent with any imposed mean-flow rotation. The analyses and results of this paper highlight many fundamental aspects of rotating flows and have important consequences for their turbulence closures in inertial and non-inertial frames.

Comparison of Surface Mountain Climate With Equivalent Free Air Parameters Extracted From NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis: Kilimanjaro, Tanzania.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pepin, N. C.; Hardy, D.; Duane, W.; Losleben, M.

2007-12-01

It is difficult to predict future climate changes in areas of complex relief, since mountains generate their own climates distinct from the free atmosphere. Thus trends in climate at the mountain surface are different from those in the free air. We compare surface climate (temperature and vapour pressure) measured at seven elevations on the south-western slope of Kilimanjaro, the tallest free standing mountain in Africa, with equivalent observations in the free atmosphere from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for September 2004 to January 2006. Correlations between daily surface and free air temperature anomalies are greatest at low elevations below 2500 metres, meaning that synoptic (inter-diurnal) variability is the major control here. However, temperatures and moisture on the higher slopes above the treeline (3000 m) are decoupled from the free atmosphere, showing intense heating/cooling by day/night and import of moisture from lower elevations during the day. The lower forested slopes thus act as a moisture source, with large vapour pressure excesses reported in comparison with the free atmosphere (>5 hPa) which move upslope during daylight and subside downslope at night. Strong seasonal contrasts are shown in the vigour of the montane thermal circulation, but interactions with free air circulation (as represented by flow indices developed from reanalysis wind components) are complex. Upper air flow strength and direction (at 500 mb) have limited influence on surface heating and upslope moisture advection, which are dominated by the diurnal cycle rather than inter-diurnal synoptic controls. Thus local changes in surface characteristics (e.g. deforestation) could have a direct influence on the mountain climate of Kilimanjaro, making the upper slopes somewhat divorced from larger scale advective changes associated with global warming.

Synoptic and climatological analysis of atmospheric circulation impacts on particulate matter pollution in Shanghai, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, Z.; Fan, S.

2016-12-01

This study investigated the particulate matter characteristics within different circulation types (CTs) in the megacity of Shanghai during the period 2001-2015, and provided a quantitative evaluation of atmospheric circulation influences on PM10 pollution across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, from local to region and daily to interannual. Ten CTs were identified over the Asian-Pacific region by objective Lamb Weather Type approach and each resulting CT was characterized with distinct local meteorology and air mass source. The PM10 loadings in the CTs associated with continental westerly flow were significant higher than that in the CTs linked to marine easterly air masses. Regional backgrounds that transported by the synoptic flows were more responsible for the distinct PM10 levels in different CTs. The locally-produced PM10 generally stabilized in range of 20-25 μg m-3, but enhanced to 41.2 μg m-3 in case of anticyclone type. There were distinct PM10 trends in different CTs (ranged from -3.74 to -0.28 μg m-3 yr-1), indicating the different background trends. Overall, the PM10 concentrations have decreased (-2.33 μg m-3 yr-1) in the studied period and the estimated locally-produced trend (-0.79 μg m-3 yr-1) accounted for 33.9% of overall downward trend. The occurrence frequency presented an increase (0.15 % yr-1) for anticyclone type, but a decrease (-0.10 % yr-1) for the type N associated with invasion of cold air. The 15-yr frequency change of atmospheric circulation induced an increase in PM­10 level (0.17 μg m-3) in Shanghai. On the contrary, controls on the pollutant emission had always positive effects and hence should be always encouraged.

Heavy Thunderstorm Synoptic Climatology and Forcing Mechanisms in Saudi Arabia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghulam, Ayman S.

2010-05-01

Meteorologists are required to provide accurate and comprehensive weather information for planning and operational aviation, agricultural, water projects and also for the public. In general, weather phenomena such as thunderstorms over the area between the tropics and the middle latitudes are not fully understood, particularly in the Middle East area, for many reasons such as: 1) the complexity of the nature of the climate due to the wide-ranging diversity in the topography and landscape in the area; 2) the lack of meteorological data in the area; and 3) the lack of studies on local weather situations. In arid regions such as Saudi Arabia, the spatial and temporal variation of thunderstorms and associated rainfall are essential in determining their effects on social and economic conditions. Thunderstorms form rapidly, due to the fact that the significant heating of the air from the surface and the ensuing rainfall usually occurs within a short period of time. Thus, understanding thunderstorms and rainfall distribution in time and space would be useful for hydrologists, meteorologists and for environmental studies. Research all over the world has shown, however, that consideration of local factors like Low Level Jets (LLJ), moisture flux, sea breezes, and the Red Sea Convergence Zone (RSCZ) would be valuable in thunderstorm prediction. The combined effects of enhanced low-level moisture convergence and layer destabilization due to upslope flow over mountainous terrain has been shown to be responsible for thunderstorm development in otherwise non-favourable conditions. However, there might be other synoptic features associated with heavy thunderstorms or cause them, but these features have not been investigated in any research in Saudi Arabia. Thus, relating the local weather and synoptic situations with those over the middle latitudes will provide a valuable background for the forecasters to issue the medium-range forecasts which are important for many projects. These forecasts become possible when the movement and the development of the mid-latitude disturbances are known very well. To further increase our understanding of the inter-annual variability of thunderstorms in semi-arid areas such as Saudi Arabia, it is necessary to consider the relationship between this variability and the large-scale atmospheric parameters in addition to the geographical features. Moreover, better insight into the monthly variations of the synoptic situations in Saudi Arabia is considered to be important for understanding the broad mechanisms responsible for thunderstorm occurrences in this geographical area. This information is highly important for aviation and other sectors in Saudi Arabia - both public and private. This paper aims to investigate the favourable synoptic environments for heavy thunderstorm initiation and development in Saudi Arabia. The importance of the monthly synoptic analysis of all days (1998-2003), heavy thunderstorm days, and dry days was intended to be demonstrated. Therefore, the monthly mean charts and deviations from the mean (anomalies) of specific meteorological parameters for heavy thunderstorm days and dry days for the months of January-December for the period 1998-2003, was illustrated to examine the synoptic conditions leading to heavy thunderstorm events in Saudi Arabia.

North Pacific Cloud Feedbacks Inferred from Synoptic-Scale Dynamic and Thermodynamic Relationships

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, Joel R.; Iacobellis, Sam F.

2005-01-01

This study analyzed daily satellite cloud observations and reanalysis dynamical parameters to determine how mid-tropospheric vertical velocity and advection over the sea surface temperature gradient control midlatitude North Pacific cloud properties. Optically thick clouds with high tops are generated by synoptic ascent, but two different cloud regimes occur under synoptic descent. When vertical motion is downward during summer, extensive stratocumulus cloudiness is associated with near surface northerly wind, while frequent cloudless pixels occur with southerly wind. Examinations of ship-reported cloud types indicates that midlatitude stratocumulus breaks up as the the boundary level decouples when it is advected equatorward over warmer water. Cumulus is prevalent under conditions of synoptic descent and cold advection during winter. Poleward advection of subtropical air over colder water causes stratification of the near-surface layer that inhibits upward mixing of moisture and suppresses cloudiness until a fog eventually forms. Averaging of cloud and radiation data into intervals of 500-hPa vertical velocity and advection over the SST gradient enables the cloud response to changes in temperature and the stratification of the lower troposphere to be investigated independent of the dynamics.

Plausible Effect of Weather on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation with a Coupled General Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zedong; Wan, Xiuquan

2018-04-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a vital component of the global ocean circulation and the heat engine of the climate system. Through the use of a coupled general circulation model, this study examines the role of synoptic systems on the AMOC and presents evidence that internally generated high-frequency, synoptic-scale weather variability in the atmosphere could play a significant role in maintaining the overall strength and variability of the AMOC, thereby affecting climate variability and change. Results of a novel coupling technique show that the strength and variability of the AMOC are greatly reduced once the synoptic weather variability is suppressed in the coupled model. The strength and variability of the AMOC are closely linked to deep convection events at high latitudes, which could be strongly affected by the weather variability. Our results imply that synoptic weather systems are important in driving the AMOC and its variability. Thus, interactions between atmospheric weather variability and AMOC may be an important feedback mechanism of the global climate system and need to be taken into consideration in future climate change studies.

Kinetic energy budget during strong jet stream activity over the eastern United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuelberg, H. E.; Scoggins, J. R.

1980-01-01

Kinetic energy budgets are computed during a cold air outbreak in association with strong jet stream activity over the eastern United States. The period is characterized by large generation of kinetic energy due to cross-contour flow. Horizontal export and dissipation of energy to subgrid scales of motion constitute the important energy sinks. Rawinsonde data at 3 and 6 h intervals during a 36 h period are used in the analysis and reveal that energy fluctuations on a time scale of less than 12 h are generally small even though the overall energy balance does change considerably during the period in conjunction with an upper level trough which moves through the region. An error analysis of the energy budget terms suggests that this major change in the budget is not due to random errors in the input data but is caused by the changing synoptic situation. The study illustrates the need to consider the time and space scales of associated weather phenomena in interpreting energy budgets obtained through use of higher frequency data.

Variability of three-dimensional sea breeze structure in southern France: observations and evaluation of empirical scaling laws

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drobinski, P.; Bastin, S.; Dabas, A.; Delville, P.; Reitebuch, O.

2006-08-01

Sea-breeze dynamics in southern France is investigated using an airborne Doppler lidar, a meteorological surface station network and radiosoundings, in the framework of the ESCOMPTE experiment conducted during summer 2001 in order to evaluate the role of thermal circulations on pollutant transport and ventilation. The airborne Doppler lidar WIND contributed to three-dimensional (3-D) mapping of the sea breeze circulation in an unprecedented way. The data allow access to the onshore and offshore sea breeze extents (xsb), and to the sea breeze depth (zsb) and intensity (usb). They also show that the return flow of the sea breeze circulation is very seldom seen in this area due to (i) the presence of a systematic non zero background wind, and (ii) the 3-D structure of the sea breeze caused by the complex coastline shape and topography. A thorough analysis is conducted on the impact of the two main valleys (Rhône and Durance valleys) affecting the sea breeze circulation in the area.

Finally, this dataset also allows an evaluation of the existing scaling laws used to derive the sea breeze intensity, depth and horizontal extent. The main results of this study are that (i) latitude, cumulative heating and surface friction are key parameters of the sea breeze dynamics; (ii) in presence of strong synoptic flow, all scaling laws fail in predicting the sea breeze characteristics (the sea breeze depth, however being the most accurately predicted); and (iii) the ratio zsb/usb is approximately constant in the sea breeze flow.

Synoptic Conditions and Moisture Sources Actuating Extreme Precipitation in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohlinger, Patrik; Sorteberg, Asgeir; Sodemann, Harald

2017-12-01

Despite the vast literature on heavy-precipitation events in South Asia, synoptic conditions and moisture sources related to extreme precipitation in Nepal have not been addressed systematically. We investigate two types of synoptic conditions—low-pressure systems and midlevel troughs—and moisture sources related to extreme precipitation events. To account for the high spatial variability in rainfall, we cluster station-based daily precipitation measurements resulting in three well-separated geographic regions: west, central, and east Nepal. For each region, composite analysis of extreme events shows that atmospheric circulation is directed against the Himalayas during an extreme event. The direction of the flow is regulated by midtropospheric troughs and low-pressure systems traveling toward the respective region. Extreme precipitation events feature anomalous high abundance of total column moisture. Quantitative Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic reveals that the largest direct contribution stems from land (approximately 75%), where, in particular, over the Indo-Gangetic Plain moisture uptake was increased. Precipitation events occurring in this region before the extreme event likely provided additional moisture.

Improvements in the Scalability of the NASA Goddard Multiscale Modeling Framework for Hurricane Climate Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Bo-Wen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chern, Jiun-Dar

2007-01-01

Improving our understanding of hurricane inter-annual variability and the impact of climate change (e.g., doubling CO2 and/or global warming) on hurricanes brings both scientific and computational challenges to researchers. As hurricane dynamics involves multiscale interactions among synoptic-scale flows, mesoscale vortices, and small-scale cloud motions, an ideal numerical model suitable for hurricane studies should demonstrate its capabilities in simulating these interactions. The newly-developed multiscale modeling framework (MMF, Tao et al., 2007) and the substantial computing power by the NASA Columbia supercomputer show promise in pursuing the related studies, as the MMF inherits the advantages of two NASA state-of-the-art modeling components: the GEOS4/fvGCM and 2D GCEs. This article focuses on the computational issues and proposes a revised methodology to improve the MMF's performance and scalability. It is shown that this prototype implementation enables 12-fold performance improvements with 364 CPUs, thereby making it more feasible to study hurricane climate.

Wintertime Boundary Layer Structure in the Grand Canyon.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whiteman, C. David; Zhong, Shiyuan; Bian, Xindi

1999-08-01

Wintertime temperature profiles in the Grand Canyon exhibit a neutral to isothermal stratification during both daytime and nighttime, with only rare instances of actual temperature inversions. The canyon warms during daytime and cools during nighttime more or less uniformly through the canyon's entire depth. This weak stability and temperature structure evolution differ from other Rocky Mountain valleys, which develop strong nocturnal inversions and exhibit convective and stable boundary layers that grow upward from the valley floor. Mechanisms that may be responsible for the different behavior of the Grand Canyon are discussed, including the possibility that the canyon atmosphere is frequently mixed to near-neutral stratification when cold air drains into the top of the canyon from the nearby snow-covered Kaibab Plateau. Another feature of canyon temperature profiles is the sharp inversions that often form near the canyon rims. These are generally produced when warm air is advected over the canyon in advance of passing synoptic-scale ridges.Wintertime winds in the main canyon are not classical diurnal along-valley wind systems. Rather, they are driven along the canyon axis by the horizontal synoptic-scale pressure gradient that is superimposed along the canyon's axis by passing synoptic-scale weather disturbances. They may thus bring winds into the canyon from either end at any time of day.The implications of the observed canyon boundary layer structure for air pollution dispersion are discussed.

Links between large-scale circulation patterns and streamflow in Central Europe: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steirou, Eva; Gerlitz, Lars; Apel, Heiko; Merz, Bruno

2017-06-01

We disentangle the relationships between streamflow and large-scale atmospheric circulation in Central Europe (CE), an area affected by climatic influences from different origins (Atlantic, Mediterranean and Continental) and characterized by diverse topography and flow regimes. Our literature review examines in detail the links between mean, high and low flows in CE and large-scale circulation patterns, with focus on two closely related phenomena, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Western-zonal circulation (WC). For both patterns, significant relations, consistent between different studies, are found for large parts of CE. The strongest links are found for the winter season, forming a dipole-like pattern with positive relationships with streamflow north of the Alps and the Carpathians for both indices and negative relationships for the NAO in the south. An influence of winter NAO is also detected in the amplitude and timing of snowmelt flows later in the year. Discharge in CE has further been linked to other large-scale climatic modes such as the Scandinavia pattern (SCA), the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern (EA/WR), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and synoptic weather patterns such as the Vb weather regime. Different mechanisms suggested in the literature to modulate links between streamflow and the NAO are combined with topographical characteristics of the target area in order to explain the divergent NAO/WC influence on streamflow in different parts of CE. In particular, a precipitation mechanism seems to regulate winter flows in North-Western Germany, an area with short duration of snow cover and with rainfall-generated floods. The precipitation mechanism is also likely in Southern CE, where correlations between the NAO and temperature are low. Finally, in the rest of the study area (Northern CE, Alpine region), a joint precipitation-snow mechanism influences floods not only in winter, but also in the spring/snowmelt period, providing some possibilities for flood forecasting.

High Altitude Bird Migration at Temperate Latitudes: A Synoptic Perspective on Wind Assistance

PubMed Central

Dokter, Adriaan M.; Shamoun-Baranes, Judy; Kemp, Michael U.; Tijm, Sander; Holleman, Iwan

2013-01-01

At temperate latitudes the synoptic patterns of bird migration are strongly structured by the presence of cyclones and anticyclones, both in the horizontal and altitudinal dimensions. In certain synoptic conditions, birds may efficiently cross regions with opposing surface wind by choosing a higher flight altitude with more favourable wind. We observed migratory passerines at mid-latitudes that selected high altitude wind optima on particular nights, leading to the formation of structured migration layers at varying altitude up to 3 km. Using long-term vertical profiling of bird migration by C-band Doppler radar in the Netherlands, we find that such migration layers occur nearly exclusively during spring migration in the presence of a high-pressure system. A conceptual analytic framework providing insight into the synoptic patterns of wind assistance for migrants that includes the altitudinal dimension has so far been lacking. We present a simple model for a baroclinic atmosphere that relates vertical profiles of wind assistance to the pressure and temperature patterns occurring at temperate latitudes. We show how the magnitude and direction of the large scale horizontal temperature gradient affects the relative gain in wind assistance that migrants obtain through ascending. Temperature gradients typical for northerly high-pressure systems in spring are shown to cause high altitude wind optima in the easterly sectors of anticyclones, thereby explaining the frequent observations of high altitude migration in these synoptic conditions. Given the recurring synoptic arrangements of pressure systems across temperate continents, the opportunities for exploiting high altitude wind will differ between flyways, for example between easterly and westerly oceanic coasts. PMID:23300969

High altitude bird migration at temperate latitudes: a synoptic perspective on wind assistance.

PubMed

Dokter, Adriaan M; Shamoun-Baranes, Judy; Kemp, Michael U; Tijm, Sander; Holleman, Iwan

2013-01-01

At temperate latitudes the synoptic patterns of bird migration are strongly structured by the presence of cyclones and anticyclones, both in the horizontal and altitudinal dimensions. In certain synoptic conditions, birds may efficiently cross regions with opposing surface wind by choosing a higher flight altitude with more favourable wind. We observed migratory passerines at mid-latitudes that selected high altitude wind optima on particular nights, leading to the formation of structured migration layers at varying altitude up to 3 km. Using long-term vertical profiling of bird migration by C-band Doppler radar in the Netherlands, we find that such migration layers occur nearly exclusively during spring migration in the presence of a high-pressure system. A conceptual analytic framework providing insight into the synoptic patterns of wind assistance for migrants that includes the altitudinal dimension has so far been lacking. We present a simple model for a baroclinic atmosphere that relates vertical profiles of wind assistance to the pressure and temperature patterns occurring at temperate latitudes. We show how the magnitude and direction of the large scale horizontal temperature gradient affects the relative gain in wind assistance that migrants obtain through ascending. Temperature gradients typical for northerly high-pressure systems in spring are shown to cause high altitude wind optima in the easterly sectors of anticyclones, thereby explaining the frequent observations of high altitude migration in these synoptic conditions. Given the recurring synoptic arrangements of pressure systems across temperate continents, the opportunities for exploiting high altitude wind will differ between flyways, for example between easterly and westerly oceanic coasts.

On the Linearly-Balanced Kinetic Energy Spectrum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lu, Huei,-Iin; Robertson, F. R.

1999-01-01

It is well known that the earth's atmospheric motion can generally be characterized by the two dimensional quasi-geostrophic approximation, in which the constraints on global integrals of kinetic energy, entrophy and potential vorticity play very important roles in redistributing the wave energy among different scales of motion. Assuming the hypothesis of Kolmogrov's local isotropy, derived a -3 power law of the equilibrium two-dimensional kinetic energy spectrum that entails constant vorticity and zero energy flows from the energy-containing wave number up to the viscous cutoff. In his three dimensional quasi-geostrophic theory, showed that the spectrum function of the vertical scale turbulence - expressible in terms of the available potential energy - possesses the same power law as the two dimensional kinetic energy spectrum. As the slope of kinetic energy spectrum in the inertial range is theoretically related to the predictability of the synoptic scales (Lorenz, 1969), many general circulation models includes a horizontal diffusion to provide reasonable kinetic energy spectra, although the actual power law exhibited in the atmospheric general circulation is controversial. Note that in either the atmospheric modeling or the observational analyses, the proper choice of wave number Index to represent the turbulence scale Is the degree of the Legendre polynomial.

The synoptic- and planetary-scale environments associated with significant 1000-hPa geostrophic wind events along the Beaufort Sea coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooke, Melanie

The substantial interannual variability and the observed warming trend of the Beaufort Sea region are important motivators for the study of regional climate and weather there. In an attempt to further our understanding of strong wind events, which can drive sea ice dynamics and storm surges, their characteristic environments at the synoptic and planetary scales are defined and analysed using global reanalysis data. A dependency on an enhanced or suppressed Aleutian low is found. This produces either a strong southeasterly or north-westerly 1000-hPa geostrophic wind event. The characteristic mid-tropospheric patterns for these two distinct event types show similarities to the positive and negative Pacific/North American teleconnection patterns, but their correlations have yet to be assessed.

Observational study of surface wind along a sloping surface over mountainous terrain during winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Young-Hee; Lee, Gyuwon; Joo, Sangwon; Ahn, Kwang-Deuk

2018-03-01

The 2018 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games will be held in Pyeongchang, Korea, during February and March. We examined the near surface winds and wind gusts along the sloping surface at two outdoor venues in Pyeongchang during February and March using surface wind data. The outdoor venues are located in a complex, mountainous terrain, and hence the near-surface winds form intricate patterns due to the interplay between large-scale and locally forced winds. During February and March, the dominant wind at the ridge level is westerly; however, a significant wind direction change is observed along the sloping surface at the venues. The winds on the sloping surface are also influenced by thermal forcing, showing increased upslope flow during daytime. When neutral air flows over the hill, the windward and leeward flows show a significantly different behavior. A higher correlation of the wind speed between upper- and lower-level stations is shown in the windward region compared with the leeward region. The strong synoptic wind, small width of the ridge, and steep leeward ridge slope angle provide favorable conditions for flow separation at the leeward foot of the ridge. The gust factor increases with decreasing surface elevation and is larger during daytime than nighttime. A significantly large gust factor is also observed in the leeward region.

An observational analysis of a derecho in South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Rudi; Wang, Donghai; Sun, Jianhua; Wang, Gaili; Xia, Guancong

2012-12-01

Derechos occur frequently in Europe and the United States, but reports of derechos in China are scarce. In this paper, radar, satellite, and surface observation data are used to analyze a derecho event in South China on 17 April 2011. A derecho-producing mesoscale convective system formed in an environment with medium convective available energy, strong vertical wind shear, and a dry layer in the middle troposphere, and progressed southward in tandem with a front and a surface wind convergence line. The windstorm can be divided into two stages according to differences in the characteristics of the radar echo and the causes of the gale. One stage was a supercell stage, in which the sinking rear inflow of a high-precipitation supercell with a bow-shaped radar echo induced a Fujita F0 class gale. The other stage was a non-supercell stage (the echo was sequentially kidney-shaped, foot-shaped, and an ordinary single cell), in which downbursts induced a gale in Fujita F1 class. This derecho event had many similarities with derechos observed in western countries. For example, the windstorm was perpendicular to the mean flow, the gale was located in the bulging portion of the bow echo, and the derecho moved southward along with the surface front. Some differences were observed as well. The synoptic-scale forcing was weak in the absence of an advancing high-amplitude midlevel trough and an accompanying strong surface cyclone; however, the vertical wind shear was very strong, a characteristic typical of derechos associated with strong synoptic-scale forcing. Extremely high values of convective available potential energy and downdraft convective available potential energy have previously been considered necessary to the formation of weak-forcing archetype and hybrid derechos; however, these values were much less than 2000 J during this derecho event.

FGOALS-s2 simulation of upper-level jet streams over East Asia: Mean state bias and synoptic-scale transient eddy activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Fengfei; Zhou, Tianjun

2013-05-01

Upper-level jet streams over East Asia simulated by the LASG/IAP coupled climate system model FGOALS-s2 were assessed, and the mean state bias explained in terms of synoptic-scale transient eddy activity (STEA). The results showed that the spatial distribution of the seasonal mean jet stream was reproduced well by the model, except that following a weaker meridional temperature gradient (MTG), the intensity of the jet stream was weaker than in National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP)/Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project II reanalysis data (NCEP2). Based on daily mean data, the jet core number was counted to identify the geographical border between the East Asian Subtropical Jet (EASJ) and the East Asian Polar-front Jet (EAPJ). The border is located over the Tibetan Plateau according to NCEP2 data, but was not evident in FGOALS-s2 simulations. The seasonal cycles of the jet streams were found to be reasonably reproduced, except that they shifted northward relative to reanalysis data in boreal summer owing to the northward shift of negative MTGs. To identify the reasons for mean state bias, the dynamical and thermal forcings of STEA on mean flow were examined with a focus on boreal winter. The dynamical and thermal forcings were estimated by extended Eliassen-Palm flux ( E) and transient heat flux, respectively. The results showed that the failure to reproduce the tripolar-pattern of the divergence of E over the jet regions led to an unsuccessful separation of the EASJ and EAPJ, while dynamical forcing contributed less to the weaker EASJ. In contrast, the weaker transient heat flux partly explained the weaker EASJ over the ocean.

WRF Model Simulations of Terrain-Driven Atmospheric Eddies in Marine Stratocumulus Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muller, B. M.; Herbster, C. G.; Mosher, F. R.

2014-12-01

It is not unusual to observe atmospheric eddies in satellite imagery of the marine stratus and stratocumulus clouds that characterize the summertime weather of the California coastal region and near-shore oceanic environment. The winds of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) over the ocean interact with the high terrain of prominent headlands and islands to create order-10 km scale areas of swirling air that can contain a cloud-free eye, 180-degree wind reversals at the surface over a period of minutes, and may be associated with mixing and turbulence between the high-humidity air of the MABL and the much warmer and drier inversion layer air above. However, synoptic and even subsynoptic surface weather measurements, and the synoptic upper-air observing network are inadequate, or in some cases, completely unable, to detect and characterize the formation, movement, and even the existence of the eddies. They can literally slip between land-based surface observation locations, or stay over the near-shore ocean environment where there may be no surface meteorological measurements. This study presents Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations of these small-scale, terrain-driven, atmospheric features in the MABL from cases detected in GOES satellite imagery. The purpose is to use model output to diagnose the formation mechanisms, sources of vorticity, and the air flow in and around the eddies. Satellite imagery is compared to simulated atmospheric variables to validate features generated within the model atmosphere, and model output is employed as a surrogate atmosphere to better understand the atmospheric characteristics of the eddies. Model air parcel trajectories are estimated to trace the movement and sources of the air contained in and around these often-observed, but seldom-measured features.

Surface Currents and Winds at the Delaware Bay Mouth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muscarella, P A; Barton, N P; Lipphardt, B L

2011-04-06

Knowledge of the circulation of estuaries and adjacent shelf waters has relied on hydrographic measurements, moorings, and local wind observations usually removed from the region of interest. Although these observations are certainly sufficient to identify major characteristics, they lack both spatial resolution and temporal coverage. High resolution synoptic observations are required to identify important coastal processes at smaller scales. Long observation periods are needed to properly sample low-frequency processes that may also be important. The introduction of high-frequency (HF) radar measurements and regional wind models for coastal studies is changing this situation. Here we analyze synoptic, high-resolution surface winds andmore » currents in the Delaware Bay mouth over an eight-month period (October 2007 through May 2008). The surface currents were measured by two high-frequency radars while the surface winds were extracted from a data-assimilating regional wind model. To illustrate the utility of these monitoring tools we focus on two 45-day periods which previously were shown to present contrasting pictures of the circulation. One, the low-outflow period is from 1 October through 14 November 2007; the other is the high-outflow period from 3 March through 16 April 2008. The large-scale characteristics noted by previous workers are clearly corroborated. Specifically the M2 tide dominates the surface currents, and the Delaware Bay outflow plume is clearly evident in the low frequency currents. Several new aspects of the surface circulation were also identified. These include a map of the spatial variability of the M2 tide (validating an earlier model study), persistent low-frequency cross-mouth flow, and a rapid response of the surface currents to a changing wind field. However, strong wind episodes did not persist long enough to set up a sustained Ekman response.« less

Synoptic versus regional causes of icing on wind turbines at an exposed wind farm site in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weissinger, Maximilian; Strauss, Lukas; Serafin, Stefano; Dorninger, Manfred; Burchhart, Thomas; Fink, Martin

2017-04-01

Ice accretion on wind turbine blades can lead to significant power production loss or even permanent structural damage on the turbine. With the ongoing construction of wind farms at sites with increased icing potential in cold climates, accurate icing predictions are needed to optimise power plant operation. To this end, the frequency of occurrence and the causes of meteorological icing need to be better understood. The project ICE CONTROL, an Austrian research initiative, aims to improve icing forecasts through measurements, probabilistic forecasting, and verification of icing on wind turbine blades. The project focuses on a wind farm site near Ellern, Germany, located on the Hunsrück, a hilly terrain rising above the surrounding plain by 200-300 metres. Production data from the last three winters show that icing events tend to occur more often at the wind turbines on top of the highest hills. The present study aims to investigate historical cases of wind turbine icing and their meteorological causes at the Ellern wind farm. The data available consists of a three-year period (2013-2016) of operational data from the Ellern wind farm as well as meteorological measurements at nearby stations operated by the German Weather Service (DWD). In addition, radiosondes and weather charts are taken into account. The main objective of this work is, first, to link the local and regional weather conditions to larger-scale weather patterns and prevailing air masses, and second, to determine the types of icing (in-cloud vs. freezing precipation). Results show that in most icing cases the cloud base height was below the hub height while the temperature was just below the freezing point. Precipitation was absent in most cases. This suggests that most of the observed icing events were due to in-cloud icing. Icing conditions occurred often (but not exclusively) under specific synoptic-scale weather conditions, such as north-westerly flow advecting maritime polar air masses to Central Europe. In other cases, icing events were favoured by the development of low-level thermal inversions during weak south-easterly flow conditions.

SYNOPTIC CLIMATOLOGY PREDICTIONS OF FRESHWATER FLOW TO CHESAPEAKE BAY. (R828677C002)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

The Meandering Margin of the Meteorological Moist Tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mapes, Brian E.; Chung, Eui Seok; Hannah, Walter M.; Masunaga, Hirohiko; Wimmers, Anthony J.; Velden, Christopher S.

2018-01-01

Bimodally distributed column water vapor (CWV) indicates a well-defined moist regime in the Tropics, above a margin value near 48 kg m-2 in current climate (about 80% of column saturation). Maps reveal this margin as a meandering, sinuous synoptic contour bounding broad plateaus of the moist regime. Within these plateaus, convective storms of distinctly smaller convective and mesoscales occur sporadically. Satellite data composites across the poleward most margin reveal its sharpness, despite the crude averaging: precipitation doubles within 100 km, marked by both enhancement and deepening of cloudiness. Transported patches and filaments of the moist regime cause consequential precipitation events within and beyond the Tropics. Distinguishing synoptic flows that cross the margin from flows that move the margin is made possible by a novel satellite-based Lagrangian CWV tendency estimate. Climate models do not reliably reproduce the observed bimodal distribution, so studying the moist mode's maintenance processes and the margin-zone air mass transformations, guided by the Lagrangian tendency product, might importantly constrain model moist process treatments.

Impacts of beaver dams on hydrologic and temperature regimes in a mountain stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majerova, M.; Neilson, B. T.; Schmadel, N. M.; Wheaton, J. M.; Snow, C. J.

2015-08-01

Beaver dams affect hydrologic processes, channel complexity, and stream temperature in part by inundating riparian areas, influencing groundwater-surface water interactions, and changing fluvial processes within stream systems. We explored the impacts of beaver dams on hydrologic and temperature regimes at different spatial and temporal scales within a mountain stream in northern Utah over a 3-year period spanning pre- and post-beaver colonization. Using continuous stream discharge, stream temperature, synoptic tracer experiments, and groundwater elevation measurements, we documented pre-beaver conditions in the first year of the study. In the second year, we captured the initial effects of three beaver dams, while the third year included the effects of ten dams. After beaver colonization, reach-scale (~ 750 m in length) discharge observations showed a shift from slightly losing to gaining. However, at the smaller sub-reach scale (ranging from 56 to 185 m in length), the discharge gains and losses increased in variability due to more complex flow pathways with beaver dams forcing overland flow, increasing surface and subsurface storage, and increasing groundwater elevations. At the reach scale, temperatures were found to increase by 0.38 °C (3.8 %), which in part is explained by a 230 % increase in mean reach residence time. At the smallest, beaver dam scale (including upstream ponded area, beaver dam structure, and immediate downstream section), there were notable increases in the thermal heterogeneity where warmer and cooler niches were created. Through the quantification of hydrologic and thermal changes at different spatial and temporal scales, we document increased variability during post-beaver colonization and highlight the need to understand the impacts of beaver dams on stream ecosystems and their potential role in stream restoration.

Synoptic-Scale Behavior of the Extratropical Tropopause Inversion Layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilch Kedzierski, Robin; Matthes, Katja; Bumke, Karl

2015-04-01

The Tropopause Inversion Layer (TIL) is a climatological feature of the tropopause region, characterized by enhanced static stability and strong temperature inversion in a thin layer (about 1km deep) right above the tropopause. It was discovered recently via tropopause-based averaging [Birner 2002]. The sharp static stability, temperature and wind shear gradients of the TIL theoretically shall inhibit stratosphere-troposphere exchange and influence the vertical propagation of planetary scale Rossby and small-scale gravity waves. High vertically resolved radiosonde and GPS radio occultation measurements show that the strength of the TIL is positively correlated with the tropopause height and anticyclonic conditions, and that it reaches its maximum strength in polar regions during summer [Birner 2006] [Randel and Wu, 2007 and 2010]. Our study takes advantage of the high density of vertical profiles (~2000 measurements per day, globally) measured by the COSMIC satellites (2007-present), in order to describe the synoptic-scale structures of the TIL and the differences between the seasonal climatologies from earlier studies and the real-time TIL. Also, using ERA-Interim reanalysis wind fields, we split relative vorticity into shear and curl terms and study separately their relation to TIL strength in cyclonic-anticyclonic conditions. We find that the TIL has a rich zonal structure, especially in midlatitude winter, and that its strength is instantly adjusted to the synoptic situation at near-tropopause level. The peaks of strongest TIL at midlatitude ridges in winter are stronger and much more frequent than any peaks found in polar summer. The roles of shear and curl vorticity differ substantially towards higher values of relative vorticity (both cyclonic and anticyclonic).

The Relationship Between Anomalous Presummer Extreme Rainfall Over South China and Synoptic Disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ling; Luo, Yali; Zhang, Da-Lin

2018-04-01

A spectral analysis of daily rainfall data has been performed to investigate extreme rainfall events in south China during the presummer rainy seasons between 1998 and 2015 (excluding 1999, 2006, 2011, and 2014). The results reveal a dominant frequency mode at the synoptic scale with pronounced positive rainfall anomalies. By analyzing the synoptic-scale bandpass-filtered anomalous circulations, 24 extreme rainfall episodes (defined as those with a daily rainfall amount in the top 5%) are categorized into "cyclone" (15) and "trough" (8) types, with the remaining events as an "anticyclone" type, according to the primary anomalous weather system contributing to each extreme rainfall episode. The 15 cyclone-type episodes are further separated into (11) lower- and (4) upper-tropospheric migratory anomalies. An analysis of their anomalous fields shows that both types could be traced back to the generation of cyclonic anomalies downstream of the Tibetan Plateau, except for two episodes of lower-tropospheric migratory anomalies originating over the South China Sea. However, a lower-tropospheric cyclonic anomaly appears during all phases in the former type, but only in the wettest phase in the latter type, with its peak disturbance occurring immediately beneath an upper-level warm anomaly. The production of extreme rainfall in the trough-type episodes is closely related to a deep trough anomaly extending from an intense cyclonic anomaly over north China, which in turn could be traced back to a midlatitude Rossby wave train passing by the Tibetan Plateau. The results have important implications for understanding the origin, structure, and evolution of synoptic disturbances associated with the presummer extreme rainfall in south China.

Synoptic moisture pathways associated with mean and extreme precipitation over Canada for winter and spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, X.; Gan, T. Y. Y.; Chen, Y. D.

2017-12-01

Dominant synoptic moisture pathway patterns of vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) in winter and spring over Canada West and East were identified using the self-organizing map method. Large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) were related to the variability in seasonal precipitation totals and occurrences of precipitation extremes. Changes in both occurrences of LSMPs and seasonal precipitation occurred under those LSMPs were evaluated to attribute observed changes in seasonal precipitation totals and occurrences of precipitation extremes. Effects of large-scale climate anomalies on occurrences of LSMPs were also examined. Results show that synoptic moisture pathways and LSMPs exhibit the propagation of jet streams as the location and direction of ridges and troughs, and the strength and center of pressure lows and highs varied considerably between LSMPs. Significant decreases in occurrences of synoptic moisture pathway patterns that are favorable with positive precipitation anomalies and more precipitation extremes in winter over Canada West resulted in decreases in seasonal precipitation and occurrences of precipitation extremes. LSMPs resulting in a hot and dry climate and less (more) frequent precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairies in winter and northwestern Canada in spring are more likely to occur in years with a negative phase of PNA. Occurrences of LSMPs for a wet climate and frequent occurrences of extreme precipitation events over southeastern Canada are associated with a positive phase of NAO. In El Niño years or negative PDO years, LSMPs associated with a dry climate and less frequent precipitation extremes over western Canada tend to occur.

Local-scale analysis of temperature patterns over Poland during heatwave events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krzyżewska, Agnieszka; Dyer, Jamie

2018-01-01

Heatwaves are predicted to increase in frequency, duration, and severity in the future, including over Central Europe where populations are sensitive to extreme temperature. This paper studies six recent major heatwave events over Poland from 2006 through 2015 using regional-scale simulations (10-km grid spacing, hourly frequency) from the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to define local-scale 2-m temperature patterns. For this purpose, a heatwave is defined as at least three consecutive days with maximum 2-m air temperature exceeding 30 °C. The WRF simulations were validated using maximum daily 2-m temperature observations from 12 meteorological stations in select Polish cities, which were selected to have even spatial coverage across the study area. Synoptic analysis of the six study events shows that the inflow of tropical air masses from the south is the primary driver of heatwave onset and maintenance, the highest temperatures (and most vulnerable areas) occur over arable land and artificial surfaces in central and western Poland, while coastal areas in the north, mountain areas in the south, and forested and mosaic areas of smaller fields and pastures of the northwest, northeast, and southeast are less affected by prolonged periods of elevated temperatures. In general, regional differences in 2-m temperature between the hottest and coolest areas is about 2-4 °C. Large urban areas like Warsaw, or the large complex of artificial areas in the conurbation of Silesian cities, are also generally warmer than surrounding areas by roughly 2-4 °C, and even up to 6 °C, especially during the night. Additionally, hot air from the south of Poland flows through a low-lying area between two mountain ranges (Sudetes and Carpathian Mountains)—the so-called Moravian Gate—hitting densely populated urban areas (Silesian cities) and Cracow. These patterns occur only during high-pressure synoptic conditions with low cloudiness and wind and without any active fronts or mesoscale convective disturbances.

Synoptic-scale behavior of the extratropical tropopause inversion layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilch Kedzierski, Robin; Matthes, Katja; Bumke, Karl

2015-11-01

High-resolution GPS radio occultation temperature profiles from the COSMIC satellite mission (2007-2013) are used to obtain daily snapshots of the strength of the extratropical tropopause inversion layer (TIL). Its horizontal structure and day-to-day variability are linked to the synoptic situation at near-tropopause level. The strength of the TIL in cyclonic as well as anticyclonic conditions is investigated by separating relative vorticity into curl and shear terms. The analysis shows that the TIL has high zonal variability, and its strength is instantaneously adjusted to the synoptic situation at near-tropopause level. Our key finding is that the TIL within midlatitude ridges in winter is as strong as or stronger than the TIL in polar summer. The strongest TIL in anticyclonic conditions is related to the shear term, while the weaker TIL in cyclonic conditions is enhanced by the curl term.

Sensitivity of proxies on non-linear interactions in the climate system

PubMed Central

Schultz, Johannes A.; Beck, Christoph; Menz, Gunter; Neuwirth, Burkhard; Ohlwein, Christian; Philipp, Andreas

2015-01-01

Recent climate change is affecting the earth system to an unprecedented extent and intensity and has the potential to cause severe ecological and socioeconomic consequences. To understand natural and anthropogenic induced processes, feedbacks, trends, and dynamics in the climate system, it is also essential to consider longer timescales. In this context, annually resolved tree-ring data are often used to reconstruct past temperature or precipitation variability as well as atmospheric or oceanic indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The aim of this study is to assess weather-type sensitivity across the Northern Atlantic region based on two tree-ring width networks. Our results indicate that nonstationarities in superordinate space and time scales of the climate system (here synoptic- to global scale, NAO, AMO) can affect the climate sensitivity of tree-rings in subordinate levels of the system (here meso- to synoptic scale, weather-types). This scale bias effect has the capability to impact even large multiproxy networks and the ability of these networks to provide information about past climate conditions. To avoid scale biases in climate reconstructions, interdependencies between the different scales in the climate system must be considered, especially internal ocean/atmosphere dynamics. PMID:26686001

An analysis of the synoptic and climatological applicability of circulation type classifications for Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broderick, Ciaran; Fealy, Rowan

2013-04-01

Circulation type classifications (CTCs) compiled as part of the COST733 Action, entitled 'Harmonisation and Application of Weather Type Classifications for European Regions', are examined for their synoptic and climatological applicability to Ireland based on their ability to characterise surface temperature and precipitation. In all 16 different objective classification schemes, representative of four different methodological approaches to circulation typing (optimization algorithms, threshold based methods, eigenvector techniques and leader algorithms) are considered. Several statistical metrics which variously quantify the ability of CTCs to discretize daily data into well-defined homogeneous groups are used to evaluate and compare different approaches to synoptic typing. The records from 14 meteorological stations located across the island of Ireland are used in the study. The results indicate that while it was not possible to identify a single optimum classification or approach to circulation typing - conditional on the location and surface variables considered - a number of general assertions regarding the performance of different schemes can be made. The findings for surface temperature indicate that that those classifications based on predefined thresholds (e.g. Litynski, GrossWetterTypes and original Lamb Weather Type) perform well, as do the Kruizinga and Lund classification schemes. Similarly for precipitation predefined type classifications return high skill scores, as do those classifications derived using some optimization procedure (e.g. SANDRA, Self Organizing Maps and K-Means clustering). For both temperature and precipitation the results generally indicate that the classifications perform best for the winter season - reflecting the closer coupling between large-scale circulation and surface conditions during this period. In contrast to the findings for temperature, spatial patterns in the performance of classifications were more evident for precipitation. In the case of this variable those more westerly synoptic stations open to zonal airflow and less influenced by regional scale forcings generally exhibited a stronger link with large-scale circulation.

Synoptic Drivers of Precipitation in the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, L.; Hudson, S.; Graham, R.; Renwick, J. A.

2017-12-01

Precipitation in the Arctic has been shown to be increasing in recent decades, from both observational and modelling studies, with largest trends seen in autumn and winter. This trend is attributed to a combination of the warming atmosphere and reduced sea ice extent. The seasonality of precipitation in the Arctic is important as it largely determines whether the precipitation falls as snow or rain. This study assesses the spatial and temporal variability of the synoptic drivers of precipitation in the Atlantic (European) sector of the Arctic. This region of the Arctic is of particular interest as it has the largest inter-annual variability in sea ice extent and is the primary pathway for moisture transport into the Arctic from lower latitudes. This study uses the ECMWF ERA-I reanalysis total precipitation to compare to long-term precipitation observations from Ny Ålesund, Svalbard to show that the reanalysis captures the synoptic variability of precipitation well and that most precipitation in this region is synoptically driven. The annual variability of precipitation in the Atlantic Arctic shows strong regionality. In the Svalbard and Barents Sea region, most of the annual total precipitation occurs during autumn and winter (Oct-Mar) (>60% of annual total), while the high-Arctic (> 80N) and Kara Sea receives most of the annual precipitation ( 60% of annual total) during summer (July-Sept). Using a synoptic classification developed for this region, this study shows that winter precipitation is driven by winter cyclone occurrence, with strong correlations to the AO and NAO indices. High precipitation over Svalbard is also strongly correlated with the Scandinavian blocking pattern, which produces a southerly flow in the Greenland Sea/Svalbard area. An increasing occurrence of these synoptic patterns are seen for winter months (Nov and Jan), which may explain much of the observed winter increase in precipitation.

Analysis of synoptic patterns in relationship with severe rainfall events in the Ebre Observatory (Catalonia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Casas-Castillo, M. Carmen; Peña, Juan Carlos; Aran, Montserrat; Rodríguez-Solà, Raúl; Redaño, Angel; Solé, German

2018-03-01

The study has obtained a classification of the synoptic patterns associated with a selection of extreme rain episodes registered in the Ebre Observatory between 1905 and 2003, showing a return period of not less than 10 years for any duration from 5 min to 24 h. These episodes had been previously classified in four rainfall intensity groups attending to their meteorological time scale. The synoptic patterns related to every group have been obtained applying a multivariable analysis to three atmospheric levels: sea-level pressure, temperature, and geopotential at 500 hPa. Usually, the synoptic patterns associated with intense rain in southern Catalonia are featured by low-pressure systems advecting warm and wet air from the Mediterranean Sea at the low levels of the troposphere. The configuration in the middle levels of the troposphere is dominated by negative anomalies of geopotential, indicating the presence of a low or a cold front, and temperature anomalies, promoting the destabilization of the atmosphere. These configurations promote the occurrence of severe convective events due to the difference of temperature between the low and medium levels of troposphere and the contribution of humidity in the lowest levels of the atmosphere.

Kinetic energy budget studies of areas of convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuelberg, H. E.

1979-01-01

Synoptic-scale kinetic energy budgets are being computed for three cases when large areas of intense convection occurred over the Central United States. Major energy activity occurs in the storm areas.

Estimating instream constituent loads using replicate synoptic sampling, Peru Creek, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Runkel, Robert L.; Walton-Day, Katherine; Kimball, Briant A.; Verplanck, Philip L.; Nimick, David A.

2013-05-01

SummaryThe synoptic mass balance approach is often used to evaluate constituent mass loading in streams affected by mine drainage. Spatial profiles of constituent mass load are used to identify sources of contamination and prioritize sites for remedial action. This paper presents a field scale study in which replicate synoptic sampling campaigns are used to quantify the aggregate uncertainty in constituent load that arises from (1) laboratory analyses of constituent and tracer concentrations, (2) field sampling error, and (3) temporal variation in concentration from diel constituent cycles and/or source variation. Consideration of these factors represents an advance in the application of the synoptic mass balance approach by placing error bars on estimates of constituent load and by allowing all sources of uncertainty to be quantified in aggregate; previous applications of the approach have provided only point estimates of constituent load and considered only a subset of the possible errors. Given estimates of aggregate uncertainty, site specific data and expert judgement may be used to qualitatively assess the contributions of individual factors to uncertainty. This assessment can be used to guide the collection of additional data to reduce uncertainty. Further, error bars provided by the replicate approach can aid the investigator in the interpretation of spatial loading profiles and the subsequent identification of constituent source areas within the watershed. The replicate sampling approach is applied to Peru Creek, a stream receiving acidic, metal-rich effluent from the Pennsylvania Mine. Other sources of acidity and metals within the study reach include a wetland area adjacent to the mine and tributary inflow from Cinnamon Gulch. Analysis of data collected under low-flow conditions indicates that concentrations of Al, Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Pb, and Zn in Peru Creek exceed aquatic life standards. Constituent loading within the study reach is dominated by effluent from the Pennsylvania Mine, with over 50% of the Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, and Zn loads attributable to a collapsed adit near the top of the study reach. These estimates of mass load may underestimate the effect of the Pennsylvania Mine as leakage from underground mine workings may contribute to metal loads that are currently attributed to the wetland area. This potential leakage confounds the evaluation of remedial options and additional research is needed to determine the magnitude and location of the leakage.

Estimating instream constituent loads using replicate synoptic sampling, Peru Creek, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runkel, Robert L.; Walton-Day, Katherine; Kimball, Briant A.; Verplanck, Philip L.; Nimick, David A.

2013-01-01

The synoptic mass balance approach is often used to evaluate constituent mass loading in streams affected by mine drainage. Spatial profiles of constituent mass load are used to identify sources of contamination and prioritize sites for remedial action. This paper presents a field scale study in which replicate synoptic sampling campaigns are used to quantify the aggregate uncertainty in constituent load that arises from (1) laboratory analyses of constituent and tracer concentrations, (2) field sampling error, and (3) temporal variation in concentration from diel constituent cycles and/or source variation. Consideration of these factors represents an advance in the application of the synoptic mass balance approach by placing error bars on estimates of constituent load and by allowing all sources of uncertainty to be quantified in aggregate; previous applications of the approach have provided only point estimates of constituent load and considered only a subset of the possible errors. Given estimates of aggregate uncertainty, site specific data and expert judgement may be used to qualitatively assess the contributions of individual factors to uncertainty. This assessment can be used to guide the collection of additional data to reduce uncertainty. Further, error bars provided by the replicate approach can aid the investigator in the interpretation of spatial loading profiles and the subsequent identification of constituent source areas within the watershed.The replicate sampling approach is applied to Peru Creek, a stream receiving acidic, metal-rich effluent from the Pennsylvania Mine. Other sources of acidity and metals within the study reach include a wetland area adjacent to the mine and tributary inflow from Cinnamon Gulch. Analysis of data collected under low-flow conditions indicates that concentrations of Al, Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Pb, and Zn in Peru Creek exceed aquatic life standards. Constituent loading within the study reach is dominated by effluent from the Pennsylvania Mine, with over 50% of the Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, and Zn loads attributable to a collapsed adit near the top of the study reach. These estimates of mass load may underestimate the effect of the Pennsylvania Mine as leakage from underground mine workings may contribute to metal loads that are currently attributed to the wetland area. This potential leakage confounds the evaluation of remedial options and additional research is needed to determine the magnitude and location of the leakage.

A Geosynchronous Lidar System for Atmospheric Winds and Moisture Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Emmitt, G. D.

2001-01-01

An observing system comprised of two lidars in geosychronous orbit would enable the synoptic and meso-scale measurement of atmospheric winds and moisture both of which are key first-order variables of the Earth's weather equation. Simultaneous measurement of these parameters at fast revisit rates promises large advancements in our weather prediction skills. Such capabilities would be unprecedented and a) yield greatly improved and finer resolution initial conditions for models, b) make existing costly and cumbersome measurement approaches obsolete, and c) obviate the use of numerical techniques needed to correct data obtained using present observing systems. Additionally, simultaneous synoptic wind and moisture observations would lead to improvements in model parameterizations, and in our knowledge of small-scale weather processes. Technology and science data product assessments are ongoing. Results will be presented during the conference.

Impact of Synoptic-Scale Factors on Rainfall Forecast in Different Stages of a Persistent Heavy Rainfall Event in South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Murong; Meng, Zhiyong

2018-04-01

This study investigates the stage-dependent rainfall forecast skills and the associated synoptic-scale features in a persistent heavy rainfall event in south China, Guangdong Province, during 29-31 March 2014, using operational global ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. This persistent rainfall was divided into two stages with a better precipitation forecast skill in Stage 2 (S2) than Stage 1 (S1) although S2 had a longer lead time. Using ensemble-based sensitivity analysis, key synoptic-scale factors that affected the rainfall were diagnosed by correlating the accumulated precipitation of each stage to atmospheric state variables in the middle of respective stage. The precipitation in both stages was found to be significantly correlated with midlevel trough, low-level vortex, and particularly the low-level jet on the southeast flank of the vortex and its associated moisture transport. The rainfall forecast skill was mainly determined by the forecast accuracy in the location of the low-level jet, which was possibly related to the different juxtapositions between the direction of the movement of the low-level vortex and the orientation of the low-level jet. The uncertainty in rainfall forecast in S1 was mainly from the location uncertainty of the low-level jet, while the uncertainty in rainfall forecast in S2 was mainly from the width uncertainty of the low-level jet with the relatively accurate location of the low-level jet.

Modeling Mars Cyclogenesis and Frontal Waves: Seasonal Variations and Implications on Dust Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, J. L.; Kahre, M. A.

2014-01-01

Between late autumn through early spring,middle and high latitudes onMars exhibit strong equator-to-polemean temperature contrasts (i.e., "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that such strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic period waves) [1, 2]. For a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, these large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. The wave-like disturbances serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum between low and high latitudes of the planet. Through cyclonic/anticyclonic winds, intense shear deformations, contractions-dilatations in temperature and density, and sharp perturbations amongst atmospheric tracers (i.e., dust, volatiles (e.g., water vapor) and condensates (e.g., water-ice cloud particles)), Mars' extratropical weather systems have significant sub-synoptic scale ramifications by supporting atmospheric frontal waves (Fig. 1).

Quantification of mine-drainage inflows to Little Cottonwood Creek, Utah, using a tracer-injection and synoptic-sampling study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kimball, B.; Runkel, R.; Gerner, L.

2001-01-01

Historic mining in Little Cottonwood Canyon in Utah has left behind many mine drainage tunnels that discharge water to Little Cottonwood Creek. To quantify the major sources of mine drainage to the stream, synoptic sampling was conducted during a tracer injection under low flow conditions (September 1998). There were distinct increases in discharge downstream from mine drainage and major tributary inflows that represented the total surface and subsurface contributions. The chemistry of stream water determined from synoptic sampling was controlled by the weathering of carbonate rocks and mine drainage inflows. Buffering by carbonate rocks maintained a high pH throughout the study reach. Most of the metal loading was from four surface-water inflows and three subsurface inflows. The main subsurface inflow was from a mine pool in the Wasatch Tunnel. Natural attenuation of all the metals resulted in the formation of colloidal solids, sorption of some metals, and accumulation onto the streambed. The deposition on the streambed could contribute to chronic toxicity for aquatic organisms. Information from the study will help to make decisions about environmental restoration.

Feature-oriented regional modeling and simulations in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangopadhyay, Avijit; Robinson, Allan R.; Haley, Patrick J.; Leslie, Wayne G.; Lozano, Carlos J.; Bisagni, James J.; Yu, Zhitao

2003-03-01

The multiscale synoptic circulation system in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank (GOMGB) region is presented using a feature-oriented approach. Prevalent synoptic circulation structures, or 'features', are identified from previous observational studies. These features include the buoyancy-driven Maine Coastal Current, the Georges Bank anticyclonic frontal circulation system, the basin-scale cyclonic gyres (Jordan, Georges and Wilkinson), the deep inflow through the Northeast Channel (NEC), the shallow outflow via the Great South Channel (GSC), and the shelf-slope front (SSF). Their synoptic water-mass ( T- S) structures are characterized and parameterized in a generalized formulation to develop temperature-salinity feature models. A synoptic initialization scheme for feature-oriented regional modeling and simulation (FORMS) of the circulation in the coastal-to-deep region of the GOMGB system is then developed. First, the temperature and salinity feature-model profiles are placed on a regional circulation template and then objectively analyzed with appropriate background climatology in the coastal region. Furthermore, these fields are melded with adjacent deep-ocean regional circulation (Gulf Stream Meander and Ring region) along and across the SSF. These initialization fields are then used for dynamical simulations via the primitive equation model. Simulation results are analyzed to calibrate the multiparameter feature-oriented modeling system. Experimental short-term synoptic simulations are presented for multiple resolutions in different regions with and without atmospheric forcing. The presented 'generic and portable' methodology demonstrates the potential of applying similar FORMS in many other regions of the Global Coastal Ocean.

Circulation weather types and their influence on precipitation in Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putniković, Suzana; Tošić, Ivana; Đurđević, Vladimir

2016-10-01

An objective classification scheme of atmospheric circulation, in which daily circulation is determined by the strength, direction, and vorticity of geostrophic flow, has been applied to the atmosphere over Serbia for the time period 1961-2010. The results for the sea level and isobaric level of 500 hPa for winter and summer are presented. The 26 circulation types (eight pure direction, 16 hybrid, cyclonic, and anticyclonic types) are determined and described. Each of the circulation types has a distinct underlying synoptic pattern that produces the expected type and direction of flow over the study area. The relative frequencies of the circulation types, and the relationship between the precipitation and circulation types at three stations on a seasonal time scale are analyzed. The anticyclonic weather type dominates in winter (18.93 %) and summer (18.70 %), followed by the northeasterly type (16.65 %) in summer, and the cyclonic type (12.83 %) in winter. The cyclonic types (C and hybrid) have a higher than average probability of rain at all stations. Conversely, the anticyclonic types are associated with a lower than average probability and intensity of rainfall.

Large-Scale Weather Disturbances in Mars’ Southern Extratropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

2015-11-01

Between late autumn and early spring, Mars’ middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal gradients between the tropics and poles. Observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). These extratropical weather disturbances are key components of the global circulation. Such wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively lifted and radiatively active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars’ full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating key large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars’ transient barotropic/baroclinic eddies are highly influenced by the great impact basins of this hemisphere (e.g., Argyre and Hellas). The occurrence of a southern storm zone in late winter and early spring appears to be anchored to the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Subtidal circulation on the Alabama shelf during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dzwonkowski, Brian; Park, Kyeong

2012-03-01

Water column velocity and hydrographic measurements on the inner Alabama shelf are used to examine the flow field and its forcing dynamics during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill disaster in the spring and summer of 2010. Comparison between two sites provides insight into the flow variability and dynamics of a shallow, highly stratified shelf in the presence of complicating geographic and bathymetric features. Seasonal currents reveal a convergent flow with strong, highly sheared offshore flow near a submarine bank just outside of Mobile Bay. At synoptic time scales, the flow is relatively consistent with typical characteristics of wind-driven Ekman coastal circulation. Analysis of the depth-averaged along-shelf momentum balance indicates that both bottom stress and along-shelf pressure gradient act to counter wind stress. As a consequence of the along-shelf pressure gradient and thermal wind shear, flow reversals in the bottom currents can occur during periods of transitional winds. Despite the relatively short distance between the two sites (14 km), significant spatial variability is observed. This spatial variability is argued to be a result of local variations in the bathymetry and density field as the study region encompasses a submarine bank near the mouth of a major freshwater source. Given the physical parameters of the system, along-shelf flow in this region would be expected to separate from the local isobaths, generating a mean offshore flow. The local, highly variable density field is expected to be, in part, responsible for the differences in the vertical variability in the current profiles.

Validation of a Remote Sensing Based Index of Forest Disturbance Using Streamwater Nitrogen Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eshleman, Keith N.; McNeil, Brenden E.; Townsend, Philip A.

2008-01-01

Vegetation disturbances are known to alter the functioning of forested ecosystems by contributing to export ('leakage') of dissolved nitrogen (N), typically nitrate-N, from watersheds that can contribute to acidification of acid-sensitive streams, leaching of base cations, and eutrophication of downstream receiving waters. Yet, at a landscape scale, direct evaluation of how disturbance is linked to spatial variability in N leakage is complicated by the fact that disturbances operate at different spatial scales, over different timescales, and at different intensities. In this paper we explore whether data from synoptic streamwater surveys conducted in an Appalachian oak-dominated forested river basin in western MD (USA) can be used to test and validate a scalable, synthetic, and integrative forest disturbance index (FDI) derived from Landsat imagery. In particular, we found support for the hypothesis that the interannual variation in spring baseflow total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) and nitrate-N concentrations measured at 35 randomly selected stream stations varied as a linear function of the change in FDI computed for the corresponding set of subwatersheds. Our results demonstrate that the combined effects of forest disturbances can be detected using synoptic water quality data. It appears that careful timing of the synoptic baseflow sampling under comparable phenological and hydrometeorological conditions increased our ability to identify a forest disturbance signal.

The sensitivity of primary productivity to intra-seasonal mixed layer variability in the sub-Antarctic Zone of the Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joubert, W. R.; Swart, S.; Tagliabue, A.; Thomalla, S. J.; Monteiro, P. M. S.

2014-03-01

The seasonal cycle of primary productivity is impacted by seasonal and intra-seasonal dynamics of the mixed layer through the changing balance between mixing and buoyancy forcing, which regulates nutrient supply and light availability. Of particular recent interest is the role of synoptic scale events in supplying nutrients, particularly iron, to the euphotic zone in the Sub Antarctic Zone (SAZ), where phytoplankton blooms occur throughout summer. In this study, we present high resolution measurements of net community production (NCP) constrained by ΔO2/Ar ratios, and mixed layer depth (MLD) in the Atlantic SAZ. We found a non-linear relationship between NCP and MLD, with the highest and most variable NCP observed in shallow MLDs (< 45 m). We propose that NCP variability in the SAZ may be driven by alternating states of synoptic-scale deepening of the mixed layer, leading to the entrainment of iron (dFe), followed by restratification, allowing rapid growth in an iron replete, high light environment. Synoptic iron fluxes into the euphotic zone based on water column dFe profiles and high resolution glider MLD data, reveal a potentially significant contribution of "new iron" which could sustain NCP throughout summer. Future process studies will help elaborate these findings further.

Stratospheric warmings: Synoptic, dynamic and general-circulation aspects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcinturff, R. M. (Editor)

1978-01-01

Synoptic descriptions consist largely of case studies, which involve a distinction between major and minor warmings. Results of energetics studies show the importance of tropospheric-stratospheric interaction, and the significance of the pressure-work term near the tropopause. Theoretical studies have suggested the role of wave-zonal flow interaction as well as nonlinear interaction between eddies, chemical and photochemical reactions, boundary forcing, and other factors. Numerical models have been based on such considerations, and these are discussed under various categories. Some indication is given as to why some of the models have been more successful than others in simulating warnings. The question of ozone and its role in warmings is briefly discussed. Finally, a broad view is taken of stratospheric warmings in relation to man's activities.

Synoptic circulation and temperature pattern during severe wildland fires

Treesearch

Warren E. Heilman

1996-01-01

Large-scale changes in the atmosphere associated with a globally changed climate and changes in climatic variability may have important regional impacts on the frequency and severity of wildland fires in the future.

Using Big Data to Understand the Human Condition: The Kavli HUMAN Project.

PubMed

Azmak, Okan; Bayer, Hannah; Caplin, Andrew; Chun, Miyoung; Glimcher, Paul; Koonin, Steven; Patrinos, Aristides

2015-09-01

Until now, most large-scale studies of humans have either focused on very specific domains of inquiry or have relied on between-subjects approaches. While these previous studies have been invaluable for revealing important biological factors in cardiac health or social factors in retirement choices, no single repository contains anything like a complete record of the health, education, genetics, environmental, and lifestyle profiles of a large group of individuals at the within-subject level. This seems critical today because emerging evidence about the dynamic interplay between biology, behavior, and the environment point to a pressing need for just the kind of large-scale, long-term synoptic dataset that does not yet exist at the within-subject level. At the same time that the need for such a dataset is becoming clear, there is also growing evidence that just such a synoptic dataset may now be obtainable-at least at moderate scale-using contemporary big data approaches. To this end, we introduce the Kavli HUMAN Project (KHP), an effort to aggregate data from 2,500 New York City households in all five boroughs (roughly 10,000 individuals) whose biology and behavior will be measured using an unprecedented array of modalities over 20 years. It will also richly measure environmental conditions and events that KHP members experience using a geographic information system database of unparalleled scale, currently under construction in New York. In this manner, KHP will offer both synoptic and granular views of how human health and behavior coevolve over the life cycle and why they evolve differently for different people. In turn, we argue that this will allow for new discovery-based scientific approaches, rooted in big data analytics, to improving the health and quality of human life, particularly in urban contexts.

Synoptic eddy-resolving Ocean Surveys over the Slope of the Chukchi Sea 2016 and 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muenchow, A.; Elmer, C.; Badiey, M.; Eickmeier, J.; Ryan, P. A.

2017-12-01

Mild weather and warm waters kept the outer continental shelf of the Chukchi Sea ice-free in 2016 when we conducted ocean surveys as part of the Canada Basin Acoustic Propagation Experiment (CANAPE). We used standard CTD and ADCP profiling systems aboard R/V Sikuliaq to describe ocean density and velocity fields at 3 km scales across and 6 km scales along the slope. Our survey covers 800 km2between the 100-m and 400-m isobaths and resolves the internal Rossby radius of deformation which represents the dominant spatial (or eddy) scale for a density-stratified ocean. Our early November 2016 data revealed Bering Sea Summer Waters with temperatures exceeding 1.0 C at 80-m depth near the 200-m isobath. Three-dimensional distribution of this water and associated density gradients suggests a current to the east. The flow is likely unstable, we speculate, because it spawns eddy-like features that we will describe. We will test this hypothesis with ocean current shear estimated from vessel-mounted ADCP profiles. A similar survey is planned for October 2017, when USCGC Healy will re-visit the area to recover ocean moorings deployed prior to the 2016 surveys.

The Role of Low-Level, Terrain-Induced Jets in Rainfall Variability in Tigris Euphrates Headwaters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Badr, Hamada S.; Evans, Jason; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2017-01-01

Rainfall variability in the Tigris Euphrates headwaters is a result of interaction between topography and meteorological features at a range of spatial scales. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, driven by the NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2), has been implemented to better understand these interactions. Simulations were performed over a domain covering most of the Middle East. The extended simulation period (1983 - 2013) enables us to study seasonality, interannual variability, spatial variability, and extreme events of rainfall. Results showed that the annual cycle of precipitation produced by WRF agrees much more closely with observations than does R-2. This was particularly evident during the transition months of April and October, which were further examined to study the underlying physical mechanisms. In both months, WRF improves representation of interannual variability relative to R-2, with a substantially larger benefit in April. This improvement results primarily from WRFs ability to resolve two low-level, terrain-induced flows in the region that are either absent or weak in R-2: one parallel to the western edge of the Zagros Mountains, and one along the east Turkish highlands. The first shows a complete reversal in its direction during wet and dry days, when flowing southeasterly it transports moisture from the Persian Gulf to the region, and when flowing northwesterly it blocks moisture and transports it away from the region. The second is more directly related to synoptic-scale systems and carries moist, warm air from the Mediterranean and Red Seas toward the region. The combined contribution of these flows explains about 50 of interannual variability in both WRF and observations for April and October precipitation.

The role of low-level terrain-induced jets in rainfall variability in Tigris-Euphrates Headwaters

PubMed Central

Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Badr, Hamada S.; Evans, Jason; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2018-01-01

Rainfall variability in the Tigris-Euphrates Headwaters is a result of interaction between topography and meteorological features at a range of spatial scales. Here, we have implemented the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, driven by NCEP/DOE R2, to better understand these interactions. Simulations were performed over a domain covering most of the Middle-East. The extended simulation period (1983–2013) enables us to study seasonality, interannual variability, spatial variability and extreme events of rainfall. Results showed that the annual cycle of precipitation produced by WRF agrees much more closely with observations than does R2. This was particularly evident during the transition months of April and October, which were further examined to study the underlying physical mechanisms. In both months, WRF improves representation of interannual variability relative to R2, with a substantially larger benefit in April. This improvement results primarily from WRF’s ability to resolve two low-level terrain-induced flows in the region that are either absent or weak in NCEP/DOE: one parallel to western edge of the Zagros Mountains, and one along the East Turkish Highlands. The first shows a complete reversal in its direction during wet and dry days: when flowing southeasterly it transports moisture from the Persian Gulf to the region, and when flowing northwesterly it blocks moisture and transports it away from the region. The second is more directly related to synoptic-scale systems and carries moist, warm air from the Mediterranean and Red Seas toward the region. The combined contribution of these flows explains about 50% of interannual variability in both WRF and observations for April and October precipitation. PMID:29726552

The Role of Low-Level Terrain-Induced Jets in Rainfall Variability in Tigris-Euphrates Headwaters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Badr, Hamada S.; Evans, Jason; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2017-01-01

Rainfall variability in the Tigris-Euphrates headwaters is a result of interaction between topography and meteorological features at a range of spatial scales. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, driven by the NCEPDOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2), has been implemented to better understand these interactions. Simulations were performed over a domain covering most of the Middle East. The extended simulation period (19832013) enables us to study seasonality, interannual variability, spatial variability, and extreme events of rainfall. Results showed that the annual cycle of precipitation produced by WRF agrees much more closely with observations than does R-2. This was particularly evident during the transition months of April and October, which were further examined to study the underlying physical mechanisms. In both months, WRF improves representation of interannual variability relative to R-2, with a substantially larger benefit in April. This improvement results primarily from WRFs ability to resolve two low-level, terrain-induced flows in the region that are either absent or weak in R-2: one parallel to the western edge of the Zagros Mountains, and one along the east Turkish highlands. The first shows a complete reversal in its direction during wet and dry days: when flowing southeasterly it transports moisture from the Persian Gulf to the region, and when flowing northwesterly it blocks moisture and transports it away from the region. The second is more directly related to synoptic-scale systems and carries moist, warm air from the Mediterranean and Red Seas toward the region. The combined contribution of these flows explains about 50 of interannual variability in both WRF and observations for April and October precipitation.

Synoptic Regulation of The 3 May 1999 Oklahoma Tornado Outbreak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, D. M.; Roebber, P. J.; Romero, R.

Despite the relatively successful long-lead-time forecasts of the storms during the 3 May 1999 tornadic outbreak in Oklahoma and Kansas, forecasters were unable to predict with confidence details concerning convective initiation and convective mode. The forecasters identified three synoptic processes they were monitoring for clues as to how the event would unfold. These elements were (a) the absence of strong surface convergence along a dryline in western Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle, (b) the presence of a cirrus shield that was hypothesized to limit surface heating, and (c) the arrival into Oklahoma of an upper-level wind-speed maximum (associated with the so- called southern PV anomaly) that was responsible for favorable synoptic-scale ascent and the cirrus shield. The Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model Version 5 (MM5) is used in forecast mode (using the operational AVN run data to provide initial and lateral boundary conditions) to explore the sen- sitivity of the outbreak to these features using simulations down to 2-km horizontal grid spacing. A 30-h control simulation is compared to the available observations and captures important qualitative characteristics of the event, including convective initi- ation east of the dryline and organization of mesoscale convective systems into long lived, long-track supercells. Additional simulations in which the initial strength of the southern PV anomaly is altered suggest that synoptic regulation of the 3 May 1999 event was imposed by the effects of the southern PV anomaly. The model results in- dicate that: (1) convective initiation in the weakly forced environment was achieved through modification of the existing cap through both surface heating and synoptic- scale ascent associated with the southern PV anomaly; (2) supercellular organization was supported regardless of the strength of the southern PV anomaly, although weak- to-moderate forcing from this feature was most conducive to the production of long lived supercells and strong forcing resulted in a trend toward linear mesoscale convec- tive systems; (3) the cirrus shield was important in limiting development of convection and reducing competition between storms.

Ocean Basin Impact of Ambient Noise on Marine Mammal Detectability, Distribution, and Acoustic Communication - YIP

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-30

when applying the 4 passive sonar equation. The integration of acoustic time series from different ocean basins will provide a synoptic...Penn State ARL Hydrophone Analog signal (V) Preamplifiers & 24-bit AiD 1-100 HzBP filter Signal Flow for a Single Hydrophone Digital signal

The Palomar-Quest Synoptic Sky Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahabal, A.; Djorgovski, S. G.; Graham, M.; Williams, R.; Granett, B.; Bogosavljevic, M.; Baltay, C.; Rabinowitz, D.; Bauer, A.; Andrews, P.; Morgan, N.; Snyder, J.; Ellman, N.; Brunner, R.; Rengstorf, A. W.; Musser, J.; Gebhard, M.; Mufson, S.

2003-12-01

Exploration of the time domain is rapidly becoming one of the most exciting areas of astronomy. The Palomar-Quest synoptic sky survey has recently started producing a steady stream of data. In driftscan mode the survey covers Declination strips 4.6 deg wide, between -25 and +30 deg, at least twice in each of the two filter sets, one Johnson-Cousin's UBRI and one SDSS r'i'z'z', at a rate of about 500 square degrees per night. The scans are separated by time baselines of days to months, and we anticipate that they will extend to multi-year time scales over the next 3 to 5 years or beyond. The unprecedented amount of data makes this the largest synoptic survey of its kind both in terms of area covered and depth. We would search for both variable and transient objects, including supernovae, variable AGN, GRB orphan afterglows, cataclysmic variables, interesting stellar flares, novae, other types of variable stars, and possibly even entirely new types of objects or phenomena. We are in the process of designing a real-time data reduction pipeline which would enable a rapid discovery and spectroscopic follow-up of transients and other intersting objects. This survey can be seen as a precursor for the even larger synoptic sky surveys with LSST and PanSTARRS.

A Synoptic Climatology of the Elevated Mixed Layer Inversion Over the Southern Great Plains in Spring

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-08-01

offshore PBL flow along Texas coast at initial time (1200 UTC 4 April). Tick marks along the trajectory are used to denote the simulation hour; the...are taken at tornado Gulf Coast event time at closest upper- air station in an upstream direction with respect to mean low-level flow ). All rain... system starts (subdivided by time of day). A sample day was also discussed. 9 break and thermal inversion layer appears. Above the inversion layer

Oceanographic and meteorological research based on the data products of SEASAT

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierson, W. J. (Principal Investigator)

1983-01-01

De-aliased SEASAT SASS vector winds obtained during the GOASEX (Gulf of Alaska SEASAT Experiment) program were processed to obtain superobservations centered on a one degree by one degree grid. The results provide values for the combined effects of mesoscale variability and communication noise on the individual SASS winds. Each grid point of the synoptic field provides the mean synoptic east-west and north-south wind components plus estimates of the standard deviations of these means. These superobservations winds are then processed further to obtain synoptic scale vector winds stress fiels, the horizontal divergence of the wind, the curl of the wind stress and the vertical velocity at 200 m above the sea surface, each with appropriate standard deviations for each grid point value. The resulting fields appear to be consistant over large distances and to agree with, for example, geostationary cloud images obtained concurrently. Their quality is far superior to that of analyses based on conventional data.

Synoptic GNIRS XD Spectra ToO Novae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodward, Chick; Helton, Andrew; Spitzer/Chandra Team

2007-02-01

Novae are important contributors to galactic chemical enrichment on local scales. NIR spectroscopy of novae provides information about the elemental abundances of the gas and dust in the ejecta dispersing into the ISM as well as kinematic information related to the outburst. We propose to obtain synoptic GNIRS spectra of select Target of Opportunity (ToO) novae in the Magellanic Clouds (MC) and the galaxy to study the dynamics of the ejecta, to determine the temporal evolution of coronal lines and recombination lines (measuring their strength and velocity profiles), and to determine abundances. Being all equidistant, MC nova permit a more robust analysis of distant-dependent physical parameters of outburst than is generally possible for Galactic novae. The GNIRS data will provide critical spectral coverage and synoptic data to complement extant Spitzer and Chandra nova programs. Triggering of the GNIRS program will occur when a nova becomes brighter than V=12 mag, (assuming that adequate PWFS guide stars exist) as reported in the IAUC or CBET.

Respective roles of direct GHG radiative forcing and induced Arctic sea ice loss on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oudar, Thomas; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Chauvin, Fabrice; Cattiaux, Julien; Terray, Laurent; Cassou, Christophe

2017-12-01

The large-scale and synoptic-scale Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation responses to projected late twenty-first century Arctic sea ice decline induced by increasing Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) concentrations are investigated using the CNRM-CM5 coupled model. An original protocol, based on a flux correction technique, allows isolating the respective roles of GHG direct radiative effect and induced Arctic sea ice loss under RCP8.5 scenario. In winter, the surface atmospheric response clearly exhibits opposing effects between GHGs increase and Arctic sea ice loss, leading to no significant pattern in the total response (particularly in the North Atlantic region). An analysis based on Eady growth rate shows that Arctic sea ice loss drives the weakening in the low-level meridional temperature gradient, causing a general decrease of the baroclinicity in the mid and high latitudes, whereas the direct impact of GHGs increase is more located in the mid-to-high troposphere. Changes in the flow waviness, evaluated from sinuosity and blocking frequency metrics, are found to be small relative to inter-annual variability.

Low-frequency climate anomalies, changes in synoptic scale circulation patterns and statistics of extreme events over south-east Poland during the Last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slawinska, J. M.; Bartoszek, K.; Gabriel, C. J.

2016-12-01

Long-term predictions of changes in extreme event frequency are of utmost importance due to their high societal and economic impact. Yet, current projections are of limited skills as they rely on satellite records that are relatively short compared to the timescale of interest, and also due to the presence of a significant anthropogenic trend superimposed onto other low-frequency variabilities. Novel simulations of past climates provide unique opportunity to separate external perturbations from internal climate anomalies and to attribute the latter to systematic changes in different types of synoptic scale circulation and distributions of high-frequency events. Here we study such changes by employing the Last Millennium Ensemble of climate simulations carried out with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, focusing in particular on decadal changes in frequency of extreme precipitation events over south-east Poland. We analyze low-frequency modulations of dominant patterns of synoptic scale circulations over Europe and their dependence on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, along with their coupling with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Moreover, we examine whether some decades of persistently anomalous statistics of extreme events can be attributed to externally forced (e.g., via volcanic eruptions) perturbations of the North Atlantic climate. In the end, we discuss the possible linkages and physical mechanisms connecting volcanic eruptions, low-frequency variabilities of North Atlantic climate and changes in statistics of high impact weather, and compare briefly our results with some historical and paleontological records.

Schneefernerhaus as a mountain research station for clouds and turbulence - Part 1: Flow conditions and large-scale turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Risius, S.; Xu, H.; Di Lorenzo, F.; Xi, H.; Siebert, H.; Shaw, R. A.; Bodenschatz, E.

2015-01-01

Cloud measurements are usually carried out with airborne campaigns, which are expensive and are limited by temporal duration and weather conditions. Ground based measurements at high-altitude research stations therefore play a complementary role in cloud study. Using the meteorological data (wind speed, direction, temperature, humidity, visibility, etc.) collected by the German Weather Service (DWD) from 2000 to 2012 and turbulence measurements recorded by multiple ultrasonic sensors (sampled at 10 Hz) in 2010, we show that the Umweltforschungsstation Schneefernerhaus (UFS) located just below the peak of Zugspitze in the German Alps, at a height of 2650 m, is a well-suited station for cloud-turbulence research. The wind at UFS is dominantly in the east-west direction and nearly horizontal. During the summer time (July and August) the UFS is immersed in warm clouds about 25% of the time. The clouds are either from convection originating in the valley in the east, or associated with synoptic-scale weather systems typically advected from the west. Air turbulence, as measured from the second and third order velocity structure functions that exhibit well-developed inertial ranges, possesses Taylor microscale Reynolds numbers up to 104, with the most probable value at ~ 3000. In spite of the complex topography, the turbulence appears to be nearly as isotropic as many laboratory flows when evaluated on the so called "Lumley-triangle".

Elucidating the relationship between aerosol concentration and summertime boundary layer structure in central China.

PubMed

Liu, Lin; Guo, Jianping; Miao, Yucong; Liu, Lin; Li, Jian; Chen, Dandan; He, Jing; Cui, Chunguang

2018-06-11

Wuhan, a megacity in central China, suffers from frequent aerosol pollution and is accompanied by meteorological factors at both synoptic and local scales. Partly due to the lack of appropriate observations of planetary boundary layer (PBL), the associations between synoptic conditions, PBL, and pollution there are not yet fully understood. Thus, systematic analyses were conducted using the fine-resolution soundings, surface meteorological measurements, and aerosol observations in Wuhan during summer for the period 2013-2016, in combination with T-mode principal component analysis and simulations of backward trajectory. The results showed that the variations of boundary layer height (BLH) not only modulated the diurnal variation of PM 2.5 concentration in Wuhan, but also the daily pollution level. Five different synoptic patterns during summer in Wuhan were identified from reanalysis geopotential height fields. Among these synoptic patterns, two types characterized by northeasterly prevailing winds, were found to be associated with heavy pollution in Wuhan. Driven by the northeasterly winds, the polluted air mass from the heavily polluted regions could be easily transported to Wuhan, such as North China Plain and Yangtze River Delta. Such regional transports of pollutants must be partly responsible for the aerosol pollution in Wuhan. In addition, these two synoptic patterns were also featured by the relatively high cloud cover and low boundary layer height in Wuhan, which would favor the occurrence of pollution there. Overall, this study has important implications for understanding the important roles of meteorological factors in modulating aerosol pollution in central China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The numerical design of a spherical baroclinic experiment for Spacelab flights

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fowlis, W. W.; Roberts, G. O.

1982-01-01

The near-zero G environment of Spacelab is the basis of a true spherical experimental model of synoptic scale baroclinic atmospheric processes, using a radial dielectric body force analogous to gravity over a volume of liquid within two concentric spheres. The baroclinic motions are generated by corotating the spheres and imposing thermal boundary conditions, such that the liquid is subjected to a stable radial gradient and a latitudinal gradient. Owing to mathematical difficulties associated with the spherical geometry, quantitative design criteria can be acquired only by means of numerical models. The procedure adopted required the development of two computer codes based on the Navier-Stokes equations. The codes, of which the first calculates axisymmetric steady flow solutions and the second determines the growth or decay rates of linear wave perturbations with different wave numbers, are combined to generate marginal stability curves.

Tropical forecasting - Predictability perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shukla, J.

1989-01-01

Results are presented of classical predictability studies and forecast experiments with observed initial conditions to show the nature of initial error growth and final error equilibration for the tropics and midlatitudes, separately. It is found that the theoretical upper limit of tropical circulation predictability is far less than for midlatitudes. The error growth for a complete general circulation model is compared to a dry version of the same model in which there is no prognostic equation for moisture, and diabatic heat sources are prescribed. It is found that the growth rate of synoptic-scale errors for the dry model is significantly smaller than for the moist model, suggesting that the interactions between dynamics and moist processes are among the important causes of atmospheric flow predictability degradation. Results are then presented of numerical experiments showing that correct specification of the slowly varying boundary condition of SST produces significant improvement in the prediction of time-averaged circulation and rainfall over the tropics.

Dynamical ocean-atmospheric drivers of floods and droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Hall, Julia

2014-05-01

The present study contributes to a better depiction and understanding of the "facial expression" of the Earth in terms of dynamical ocean-atmospheric processes associated to both floods and droughts. For this purpose, the study focuses on nonlinear dynamical and statistical analysis of ocean-atmospheric mechanisms contributing to hydrological extremes, broadening the analytical hydro-meteorological perspective of floods and hydrological droughts to driving mechanisms and feedbacks at the global scale. In doing so, the analysis of the climate-related causality of hydrological extremes is not limited to the synoptic situation in the region where the events take place. Rather, it goes further in the train of causality, peering into dynamical interactions between planetary-scale ocean and atmospheric processes that drive weather regimes and influence the antecedent and event conditions associated to hydrological extremes. In order to illustrate the approach, dynamical ocean-atmospheric drivers are investigated for a selection of floods and droughts. Despite occurring in different regions with different timings, common underlying mechanisms are identified for both kinds of hydrological extremes. For instance, several analysed events are seen to have resulted from a large-scale atmospheric situation consisting on standing planetary waves encircling the northern hemisphere. These correspond to wider vortices locked in phase, resulting in wider and more persistent synoptic weather patterns, i.e. with larger spatial and temporal coherence. A standing train of anticyclones and depressions thus encircled the mid and upper latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The stationary regime of planetary waves occurs when the mean eastward zonal flow decreases up to a point in which it no longer exceeds the westward phase propagation of the Rossby waves produced by the latitude-varying Coriolis effect. The ocean-atmospheric causes for this behaviour and consequences on hydrological extremes are investigated and the findings supported with spatiotemporal geostatistical analysis and nonlinear geophysical models. Overall, the study provides a three-fold contribution to the research on hydrological extremes: Firstly, it improves their physical attribution by better understanding the dynamical reasons behind the meteorological drivers. Secondly, it brings out fundamental early warning signs for potential hydrological extremes, by bringing out global ocean-atmospheric features that manifest themselves much earlier than the regional weather patterns. Thirdly, it provides tools for addressing and understanding hydrological regime changes at wider spatiotemporal scales, by providing links to planetary-scale dynamical processes that play a crucial role in multi-decadal global climate variability.

Non-Susceptible Landslide Areas in Italy and in the Mediterranean Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvioli, Massimiliano; Ardizzone, Francesca; Guzzetti, Fausto; Marchesini, Ivan; Rossi, Mauro

2014-05-01

Landslide susceptibility is the likelihood of a landslide occurring in a given area. Over the past three decades, researchers, and planning and environmental organisations have worked to assess landslide susceptibility at different geographical scales, and to produce maps portraying landslide susceptibility zonation. Little effort was made to determine where landslides are not expected, where susceptibility is null, or negligible. This is surprising because planners and decision makers are also interesting in knowing where landslides are not foreseen, or cannot occur in an area. We propose a method for the definition of non-susceptible landslide areas, at the synoptic scale. We applied the method in Italy and to the territory surrounding the Mediterranean Sea and we produced two synoptic-scale maps showing areas where landslides are not expected in Italy and in the Mediterranean area. To construct the method we used digital terrain elevation and landslide information. The digital terrain consisted in the 3-arc-second SRTM DEM, the landslide information was obtained for 13 areas in Italy where landslide inventory maps were available to us. We tested three different models to determine the non-susceptible landslide areas, including a linear model (LR), a quantile linear model (QLR), and a quantile non-linear model (QNL). Model performances have been evaluated using independent landslide information represented by the Italian Landslide Inventory (Inventario Fenomeni Franosi in Italia - IFFI). Best results were obtained using the QNL model. The corresponding zonation of non- susceptible landslide areas was intersected in a GIS with geographical census data for Italy. The results show that the 57.5% of the population of Italy (in 2001) was located in areas where landslide susceptibility was expected to be null or negligible, while the remaining 42.5% in areas where some landslide susceptibility was significant or not negligible. We applied the QNL model to the landmasses surrounding the Mediterranean Sea, and we tested the synoptic non- susceptibility zonation using independent landslide information for three study areas in Spain. Results proved that the QNL model was capable of determining where landslide susceptibility is expected to be negligible in the Mediterranean area. We expect our results to be applicable in similar study areas, facilitating the identification of non-susceptible and susceptible landslide areas, at the synoptic scale.

The Analysis, Numerical Simulation, and Diagnosis of Extratropical Weather Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-09-30

The Analysis, Numerical Simulation, and Diagnosis of Extratropical Weather Systems Dr. Melvyn A. Shapiro NOAA/Environmental Technology Laboratory...formulation, and numerical prediction of the life cycles of synoptic-scale and mesoscale extratropical weather systems, including the influence of planetary...scale inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability on their evolution. These weather systems include: extratropical oceanic and land-falling cyclones

Urbanization-induced urban heat island and aerosol effects on climate extremes in the Yangtze River Delta region of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Shi; Qian, Yun; Zhao, Chun; Leung, Ruby; Wang, Hailong; Yang, Ben; Fan, Jiwen; Yan, Huiping; Yang, Xiu-Qun; Liu, Dongqing

2017-04-01

The WRF-Chem model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) is integrated for 5 years at convection-permitting scale to investigate the individual and combined impacts of urbanization-induced changes in land cover and pollutant emissions on regional climate in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in eastern China. Simulations with the urbanization effects reasonably reproduced the observed features of temperature and precipitation in the YRD region. Urbanization over the YRD induces an urban heat island (UHI) effect, which increases the surface temperature by 0.53 °C in summer and increases the annual heat wave days at a rate of 3.7 d yr-1 in the major megacities in the YRD, accompanied by intensified heat stress. In winter, the near-surface air temperature increases by approximately 0.7 °C over commercial areas in the cities but decreases in the surrounding areas. Radiative effects of aerosols tend to cool the surface air by reducing net shortwave radiation at the surface. Compared to the more localized UHI effect, aerosol effects on solar radiation and temperature influence a much larger area, especially downwind of the city cluster in the YRD. Results also show that the UHI increases the frequency of extreme summer precipitation by strengthening the convergence and updrafts over urbanized areas in the afternoon, which favor the development of deep convection. In contrast, the radiative forcing of aerosols results in a surface cooling and upper-atmospheric heating, which enhances atmospheric stability and suppresses convection. The combined effects of the UHI and aerosols on precipitation depend on synoptic conditions. Two rainfall events under two typical but different synoptic weather patterns are further analyzed. It is shown that the impact of urban land cover and aerosols on precipitation is not only determined by their influence on local convergence but also modulated by large-scale weather systems. For the case with a strong synoptic forcing associated with stronger winds and larger spatial convergence, the UHI and aerosol effects are relatively weak. When the synoptic forcing is weak, however, the UHI and aerosol effects on local convergence dominate. This suggests that synoptic forcing plays a significant role in modulating the urbanization-induced land-cover and aerosol effects on individual rainfall event. Hence precipitation changes due to urbanization effects may offset each other under different synoptic conditions, resulting in little changes in mean precipitation at longer timescales.

Urbanization-induced urban heat island and aerosol effects on climate extremes in the Yangtze River Delta region of China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhong, Shi; Qian, Yun; Zhao, Chun

The WRF-Chem model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) is integrated for 5 years at convection-permitting scale to investigate the individual and combined impacts of urbanization-induced changes in land cover and pollutant emissions on regional climate in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in eastern China. Simulations with the urbanization effects reasonably reproduced the observed features of temperature and precipitation in the YRD region. Urbanization over the YRD induces an urban heat island (UHI) effect, which increases the surface temperature by 0.53 °C in summer and increases the annual heat wave days at a rate of 3.7 d yr −1 in themore » major megacities in the YRD, accompanied by intensified heat stress. In winter, the near-surface air temperature increases by approximately 0.7 °C over commercial areas in the cities but decreases in the surrounding areas. Radiative effects of aerosols tend to cool the surface air by reducing net shortwave radiation at the surface. Compared to the more localized UHI effect, aerosol effects on solar radiation and temperature influence a much larger area, especially downwind of the city cluster in the YRD. Results also show that the UHI increases the frequency of extreme summer precipitation by strengthening the convergence and updrafts over urbanized areas in the afternoon, which favor the development of deep convection. In contrast, the radiative forcing of aerosols results in a surface cooling and upper-atmospheric heating, which enhances atmospheric stability and suppresses convection. The combined effects of the UHI and aerosols on precipitation depend on synoptic conditions. Two rainfall events under two typical but different synoptic weather patterns are further analyzed. It is shown that the impact of urban land cover and aerosols on precipitation is not only determined by their influence on local convergence but also modulated by large-scale weather systems. For the case with a strong synoptic forcing associated with stronger winds and larger spatial convergence, the UHI and aerosol effects are relatively weak. When the synoptic forcing is weak, however, the UHI and aerosol effects on local convergence dominate. This suggests that synoptic forcing plays a significant role in modulating the urbanization-induced land-cover and aerosol effects on individual rainfall event. Hence precipitation changes due to urbanization effects may offset each other under different synoptic conditions, resulting in little changes in mean precipitation at longer timescales.« less

Urbanization-induced urban heat island and aerosol effects on climate extremes in the Yangtze River Delta region of China

DOE PAGES

Zhong, Shi; Qian, Yun; Zhao, Chun; ...

2017-04-27

The WRF-Chem model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) is integrated for 5 years at convection-permitting scale to investigate the individual and combined impacts of urbanization-induced changes in land cover and pollutant emissions on regional climate in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in eastern China. Simulations with the urbanization effects reasonably reproduced the observed features of temperature and precipitation in the YRD region. Urbanization over the YRD induces an urban heat island (UHI) effect, which increases the surface temperature by 0.53 °C in summer and increases the annual heat wave days at a rate of 3.7 d yr −1 in themore » major megacities in the YRD, accompanied by intensified heat stress. In winter, the near-surface air temperature increases by approximately 0.7 °C over commercial areas in the cities but decreases in the surrounding areas. Radiative effects of aerosols tend to cool the surface air by reducing net shortwave radiation at the surface. Compared to the more localized UHI effect, aerosol effects on solar radiation and temperature influence a much larger area, especially downwind of the city cluster in the YRD. Results also show that the UHI increases the frequency of extreme summer precipitation by strengthening the convergence and updrafts over urbanized areas in the afternoon, which favor the development of deep convection. In contrast, the radiative forcing of aerosols results in a surface cooling and upper-atmospheric heating, which enhances atmospheric stability and suppresses convection. The combined effects of the UHI and aerosols on precipitation depend on synoptic conditions. Two rainfall events under two typical but different synoptic weather patterns are further analyzed. It is shown that the impact of urban land cover and aerosols on precipitation is not only determined by their influence on local convergence but also modulated by large-scale weather systems. For the case with a strong synoptic forcing associated with stronger winds and larger spatial convergence, the UHI and aerosol effects are relatively weak. When the synoptic forcing is weak, however, the UHI and aerosol effects on local convergence dominate. This suggests that synoptic forcing plays a significant role in modulating the urbanization-induced land-cover and aerosol effects on individual rainfall event. Hence precipitation changes due to urbanization effects may offset each other under different synoptic conditions, resulting in little changes in mean precipitation at longer timescales.« less

Evaluation of a Mesoscale Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling System with Observations from the 1980 Great Plains Mesoscale Tracer Field Experiment. Part I: Datasets and Meteorological Simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moran, Michael D.; Pielke, Roger A.

1996-03-01

The Colorado State University mesoscale atmospheric dispersion (MAD) numerical modeling system, which consists of a prognostic mesoscale meteorological model coupled to a mesoscale Lagrangian particle dispersion model, has been used to simulate the transport and diffusion of a perfluorocarbon tracer-gas cloud for one afternoon surface release during the July 1980 Great Plains mesoscale tracer field experiment. Ground-level concentration (GLC) measurements taken along arcs of samplers 100 and 600 km downwind of the release site at Norman, Oklahoma, up to three days after the tracer release were available for comparison. Quantitative measures of a number of significant dispersion characteristics obtained from analysis of the observed tracer cloud's moving GLC `footprint' have been used to evaluate the modeling system's skill in simulating this MAD case.MAD is more dependent upon the spatial and temporal structure of the transport wind field than is short-range atmospheric dispersion. For the Great Plains mesoscale tracer experiment, the observations suggest that the Great Plains nocturnal low-level jet played an important role in transporting and deforming the tracer cloud. A suite of ten two- and three-dimensional numerical meteorological experiments was devised to investigate the relative contributions of topography, other surface inhomogeneities, atmospheric baroclinicity, synoptic-scale flow evolution, and meteorological model initialization time to the structure and evolution of the low-level mesoscale flow field and thus to MAD. Results from the ten mesoscale meteorological simulations are compared in this part of the paper. The predicted wind fields display significant differences, which give rise in turn to significant differences in predicted low-level transport. The presence of an oscillatory ageostrophic component in the observed synoptic low-level winds for this case is shown to complicate initialization of the meteorological model considerably and is the likely cause of directional errors in the predicted mean tracer transport. A companion paper describes the results from the associated dispersion simulations.

Observations of Lake-Breeze Events During the Toronto 2015 Pan-American Games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariani, Zen; Dehghan, Armin; Joe, Paul; Sills, David

2018-01-01

Enhanced meteorological observations were made during the 2015 Pan and Parapan American Games in Toronto in order to measure the vertical and horizontal structure of lake-breeze events. Two scanning Doppler lidars (one fixed and one mobile), a C-band radar, and a network including 53 surface meteorological stations (mesonet) provided pressure, temperature, humidity, and wind speed and direction measurements over Lake Ontario and urban areas. These observations captured the full evolution (prior, during, and after) of 27 lake-breeze events (73% of observation days) in order to characterize the convective and dynamic processes driving lake breezes at the local scale and mesoscale. The dominant signal of a passing lake-breeze front (LBF) was an increase in dew-point temperature of 2.3 ± 0.3°C, coinciding with a 180° shift in wind direction and a decrease in air temperature of 2.1 ± 0.2°C. Doppler lidar observations over the lake detected lake breezes 1 hour (on average) before detection by radar and mesonet. On days with the synoptic flow in the offshore direction, the lidars observed wedge-shaped LBFs with shallow depths, which inhibited the radar's ability to detect the lake breeze. The LBF's ground speed and inland penetration distance were found to be well-correlated (r = 0.78), with larger inland penetration distances occurring on days with non-opposing (non-offshore) synoptic flow. The observed enhanced vertical motion ({>} 1 m s^{-1}) at the LBF, observed by the lidar on 54% of lake-breeze days, was greater (at times {>} 2.5 m s^{-1}) than that observed in previous studies and longer-lasting over the lake than over land. The weaker and less pronounced lake-breeze structure over land is illustrated in two case studies highlighting the lifetime of the lake-breeze circulation and the impact of propagation distance on lake-breeze intensity.

Synoptic events force biological productivity in Patagonian fjord ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daneri, Giovanni

2016-04-01

The annual cycle of primary productivity of the Patagonian fjords has, to date, been described as a two phase system consisting of a short non productive winter phase (during June and July) and a productive phase extending from late winter (August) to autumn (May). Low levels of primary production, phytoplankton biomass and high concentrations of surface nutrients have been described as characterizing winter conditions while pulsed productivity events typifies the productivity pattern during the extended productive season. Pulsed productivity events characterize coastal waters where inorganic nutrients in surface layers are replenished following periods of intensive utilization by autotrophs. Freshwater input in Patagonian fjords in southern Chile (41-55°S) results in one of the largest estuarine regions worldwide. Here strong haline water column stratification prevents nutrient mixing to the surface layers thus potentially shutting off algal production. Our working hypothesis considered that in order to reconcile the observed pulsed productivity pattern, periodic breaking (associated to surface nutrient replenishment) and re-establishment of estuarine conditions (associated to water column stratification) would be required. Up to now however our understanding of the physical processes that control water column conditions in the Patagonian fjord area has been extremely limited. Here we present evidence linking the passage of synoptic low pressure fronts to pulsed productivity events in the Patagonian fjord area. These front controls and influence local processes of interaction between the fjord and the atmosphere generating a rapid water column response. In the specific case of the Puyuhuapi fjord we have been able to show that such synoptic fronts induce surface flow reversal and water column mixing. Phytoplankton blooming occurs after the passage of the synoptic front once calmer conditions prevail and estuarine conditions are re established. The occurrence of an extremely productive bloom of the dinoflagellate Heterocapsa sp. in July 2014, after the passage of a synoptic low pressure front provided, for the first time, strong evidence that phytoplankton blooming in the Patagonian fjord ecosystems is controlled by synoptic processes and that they are not limited by light as previously reported. This research was funded by COPAS Sur-Austral (PFB-31) and FONDECYT 1131063

Impact of seasonal synoptic weather types on local PM10 concentrations in Bavaria/Germany: recent conditions and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weitnauer, Claudia; Beck, Christoph; Jacobeit, Jucundus

2015-04-01

It is a matter of common knowledge that local concentrations of PM10 (fine particles in the air with a medium diameter less than 10 μm) vary with the seasons in Europe. These concentrations are influenced on the one hand by the amount of natural and anthropogenic emissions and on the other hand by large-scale and local meteorological conditions. In Bavaria (part of southern Germany) as the target region of the present study, the PM10 concentrations are particularly high in winter time. One reason for this are increased particle emissions due to domestic heating and traffic load in December, January and February. As several studies in other European regions indicated, a distinct effect of the large-scale synoptic weather situation in winter on local PM10 concentrations should be considered as another reason. The main task of this study is to use seasonal synoptic weather types, which are optimized with respect to daily mean PM10 data at 16 Bavarian cities, and therefore are classified by using daily gridded NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (2.5° x 2.5° horizontal resolution) for the recent period 1980 - 2011 over a Central European spatial domain, to describe the impact of the large-scale meteorological conditions on the local particle concentrations. The weather types are related to monthly PM10 indices by using different transfer techniques like direct synoptic downscaling, multiple regression and generalized linear models as well as random forests. The PM10 indices are determined by averaging daily to monthly data (PMmean) or by counting the daily exceedances of a particular threshold (> 50 μg/m3, PMe50). The generated transfer models are evaluated in calibration and validation periods using several forecast skills, for example the mean squared skill score (MSSS) or the Heidke Skill Score (HSS). The sufficiently performing models are then applied to weather types derived from future climate change scenarios of the global climate model ECHAM 6 for the IPCC scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 in order to estimate future climate-change induced modifications of local PM10 concentrations in Bavaria.

Influence of synoptic condition and holiday effects on VOCs and ozone production in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhengning; Huang, Xin; Nie, Wei; Chi, Xuguang; Xu, Zheng; Zheng, Longfei; Sun, Peng; Ding, Aijun

2017-11-01

Both anthropogenic emission and synoptic conditions play important roles in ozone (O3) formation and accumulation. In order to understand the influence of synoptic condition and holiday effects on ozone production in the Yangtze River Delta region, China, concentrations of speciated volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and O3 as well as other relevant trace gases were simultaneously measured at the Station for Observing Regional Processes of the Earth System (SORPES) in Nanjing around the National Day holidays of China in 2014, which featured substantial change of emissions and dominated by typical anti-cyclones. Different groups of VOC species and their chemical reactivities were comprehensively analyzed. We observed clear diurnal variations of short alkenes during the measurement period, considerable amount of short alkenes were observed during night (more than 10 ppb) while almost no alkenes were measured during daytime, which might be attributed to different chemical processes. The obvious enhancement of the VOC tracers during the National Day holidays (Oct. 1st-Oct. 7th) indicated that the holiday effect strongly influenced the distribution of VOC profile and chemical reactivity in the atmosphere. At the same time, two meso-scale anticyclone processes were also observed during the measurement period. The synoptic condition contributed to the accumulation of VOCs and other precursors, which consequently impacted the ozone production in this region. The integrated influence of synoptic and holiday effects was also analyzed with an Observation Based Model (OBM) based on simplified MCM (Master Chemical Mechanism) chemical mechanism. The calculated relative increment reactivity (RIR) of different VOC groups revealed that during the holidays, this region was in VOC-limited regime and the variation of RIR shows a close linkage to the development and elimination of anti-cyclones, indicating an in-negligible contribution of synoptic effect toward ozone production in this region.

Automated Identification of Coronal Holes from Synoptic EUV Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamada, Amr; Asikainen, Timo; Virtanen, Ilpo; Mursula, Kalevi

2018-04-01

Coronal holes (CHs) are regions of open magnetic field lines in the solar corona and the source of the fast solar wind. Understanding the evolution of coronal holes is critical for solar magnetism as well as for accurate space weather forecasts. We study the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) synoptic maps at three wavelengths (195 Å/193 Å, 171 Å and 304 Å) measured by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (SOHO/EIT) and the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA) instruments. The two datasets are first homogenized by scaling the SDO/AIA data to the SOHO/EIT level by means of histogram equalization. We then develop a novel automated method to identify CHs from these homogenized maps by determining the intensity threshold of CH regions separately for each synoptic map. This is done by identifying the best location and size of an image segment, which optimally contains portions of coronal holes and the surrounding quiet Sun allowing us to detect the momentary intensity threshold. Our method is thus able to adjust itself to the changing scale size of coronal holes and to temporally varying intensities. To make full use of the information in the three wavelengths we construct a composite CH distribution, which is more robust than distributions based on one wavelength. Using the composite CH dataset we discuss the temporal evolution of CHs during the Solar Cycles 23 and 24.

Can we do better than the grid survey: Optimal synoptic surveys in presence of variable uncertainty and decorrelation scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frolov, Sergey; Garau, Bartolame; Bellingham, James

2014-08-01

Regular grid ("lawnmower") survey is a classical strategy for synoptic sampling of the ocean. Is it possible to achieve a more effective use of available resources if one takes into account a priori knowledge about variability in magnitudes of uncertainty and decorrelation scales? In this article, we develop and compare the performance of several path-planning algorithms: optimized "lawnmower," a graph-search algorithm (A*), and a fully nonlinear genetic algorithm. We use the machinery of the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) to quantify the ability of a vehicle fleet to synoptically map distribution of phytoplankton off the central California coast. We used satellite and in situ data to specify covariance information required by the BLUE estimator. Computational experiments showed that two types of sampling strategies are possible: a suboptimal space-filling design (produced by the "lawnmower" and the A* algorithms) and an optimal uncertainty-aware design (produced by the genetic algorithm). Unlike the space-filling designs that attempted to cover the entire survey area, the optimal design focused on revisiting areas of high uncertainty. Results of the multivehicle experiments showed that fleet performance predictors, such as cumulative speed or the weight of the fleet, predicted the performance of a homogeneous fleet well; however, these were poor predictors for comparing the performance of different platforms.

Preserving a Unique Archive for Long-Term Solar Variability Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, David F.; Hewins, Ian; McFadden, Robert; Emery, Barbara; Gibson, Sarah; Denig, William

2016-05-01

In 1964 (solar cycle 20) Patrick McIntosh began creating hand-drawn synoptic maps of solar activity, based on Hydrogen alpha (Hα) imaging measurements. These synoptic maps were unique because they traced the polarity inversion lines (PILs), connecting widely separated filaments, fibril patterns and plage corridors to reveal the large-scale organization of the solar magnetic field. He and his assistants later included coronal hole (CH) boundaries to the maps, usually from ground-based He-I 10830 images. They continued making these maps until 2010 (the start of solar cycle 24), yielding more than 40 years (~ 540 Carrington rotations) or nearly four complete solar cycles (SCs) of synoptic maps. The McIntosh collection of maps forms a unique and consistent set of global solar magnetic field data, and are unique tools for studying the structure and evolution of the large-scale solar fields and polarity boundaries, because: 1) they have excellent spatial resolution for defining polarity boundaries, 2) the organization of the fields into long-lived, coherent features is clear, and 3) the data are relatively homogeneous over four solar cycles. After digitization and archiving, these maps -- along with computer codes permitting efficient searches of the map arrays -- will be made publicly available at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) in their final, searchable form. This poster is a progress report of the project so far and some suggested scientific applications.

Surface-layer turbulence, energy balance and links to atmospheric circulations over a mountain glacier in the French Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Litt, Maxime; Sicart, Jean-Emmanuel; Six, Delphine; Wagnon, Patrick; Helgason, Warren D.

2017-04-01

Over Saint-Sorlin Glacier in the French Alps (45° N, 6.1° E; ˜ 3 km2) in summer, we study the atmospheric surface-layer dynamics, turbulent fluxes, their uncertainties and their impact on surface energy balance (SEB) melt estimates. Results are classified with regard to large-scale forcing. We use high-frequency eddy-covariance data and mean air-temperature and wind-speed vertical profiles, collected in 2006 and 2009 in the glacier's atmospheric surface layer. We evaluate the turbulent fluxes with the eddy-covariance (sonic) and the profile method, and random errors and parametric uncertainties are evaluated by including different stability corrections and assuming different values for surface roughness lengths. For weak synoptic forcing, local thermal effects dominate the wind circulation. On the glacier, weak katabatic flows with a wind-speed maximum at low height (2-3 m) are detected 71 % of the time and are generally associated with small turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and small net turbulent fluxes. Radiative fluxes dominate the SEB. When the large-scale forcing is strong, the wind in the valley aligns with the glacier flow, intense downslope flows are observed, no wind-speed maximum is visible below 5 m, and TKE and net turbulent fluxes are often intense. The net turbulent fluxes contribute significantly to the SEB. The surface-layer turbulence production is probably not at equilibrium with dissipation because of interactions of large-scale orographic disturbances with the flow when the forcing is strong or low-frequency oscillations of the katabatic flow when the forcing is weak. In weak forcing when TKE is low, all turbulent fluxes calculation methods provide similar fluxes. In strong forcing when TKE is large, the choice of roughness lengths impacts strongly the net turbulent fluxes from the profile method fluxes and their uncertainties. However, the uncertainty on the total SEB remains too high with regard to the net observed melt to be able to recommend one turbulent flux calculation method over another.

A synoptic climatology for forest fires in the NE US and future implications for GCM simulations

Treesearch

Yan Qing; Ronald Sabo; Yiqiang Wu; J.Y. Zhu

1994-01-01

We studied surface-pressure patterns corresponding to reduced precipitation, high evaporation potential, and enhanced forest-fire danger for West Virginia, which experienced extensive forest-fire damage in November 1987. From five years of daily weather maps we identified eight weather patterns that describe distinctive flow situations throughout the year. Map patterns...

Westerly Wind Bursts: a Synoptic-Dynamic Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartten, Leslie Marie

This research examines the synoptic and climatological settings of westerly wind bursts (WWBs) during the 1980s and the dynamical processes active during them. Probabilities of strong westerly and easterly 1000 mb winds over the western equatorial Pacific are presented. Westerlies exhibit a clear annual cycle, appearing in the north in July, moving southeastward as the year progresses, and disappearing by June. Conditional probabilities, dependent on the value of the SOI, show that strong westerlies are more likely and more geographically extensive when the SOI is low, especially from July through January. A newly developed two-dimensional classification scheme qualitatively describes the near-surface synoptic flow of almost 90% of the 131 WWBs identified during the decade. Only 8% of the WWBs are described by the pattern involving twin cyclonic circulations straddling the equator. The trades, tropical cyclones, and the southeast Asian monsoon are all at times linked to WWBs, and the synoptic patterns often contain a significant barotropic component. Breaks in WWB activity are well correlated with a cooler than normal western Pacific warm pool. However, near-equatorial WWBs do not show a good correlation with the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Four near-equatorial WWBs are examined in detail. All are associated with broad cross-equatorial flow; two also have a cyclonic circulation poleward of the westerlies. Anticyclonic relative vorticity equatorward of the burst displaces the zero line of absolute vorticity, eta, into the burst hemisphere. In the three Southern Hemisphere cases, horizontal advection in a region extending from north of New Guinea east-southeast toward the dateline is crucial to the generation and maintenance of the eta pattern. Vorticity stretching associated with convection helps maintain a tight gradient of eta near and poleward of the burst, but also drives the eta = 0 line back towards the equator as the burst ends. In the Northern Hemisphere case, advection is less efficient because the trades slow and turn further away from the equator. This research indicates that Gill's (1980) solution to the linear shallow -water equations forced by near-equatorial heating is not a good model for WWBs.

Convective scale weather analysis and forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Purdom, J. F. W.

1984-01-01

How satellite data can be used to improve insight into the mesoscale behavior of the atmosphere is demonstrated with emphasis on the GOES-VAS sounding and image data. This geostationary satellite has the unique ability to observe frequently the atmosphere (sounders) and its cloud cover (visible and infrared) from the synoptic scale down to the cloud scale. These uniformly calibrated data sets can be combined with conventional data to reveal many of the features important in mesoscale weather development and evolution.

Comparison of H-alpha synoptic charts with the large-scale solar magnetic field as observed at Stanford

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duvall, T. L., Jr.; Wilcox, J. M.; Svalgaard, L.; Scherrer, P. H.; Mcintosh, P. S.

1977-01-01

Two methods of observing the neutral line of the large-scale photospheric magnetic field are compared: neutral line positions inferred from H-alpha photographs (McIntosh and Nolte, 1975) and observations of the photospheric magnetic field made with low spatial resolution (three minutes) and high sensitivity using the Stanford magnetograph. The comparison is found to be very favorable.

Synoptic evolution of Atmospheric River landfalls in Northern California and the pre-conditioning of their characteristics by the climate state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gershunov, A.; Guirguis, K.; Shulgina, T.; Clemesha, R.; Ralph, M.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) contribute the lion's share of water resources for California, but can also cause flooding and draw heavily on emergency resources of state and local governments. Comprehensive probabilistic tools relating landfalling ARs to pre-existing weather/climate conditions could be useful for subseasonal forecasting, emergency preparedness and water resource management. We examine ARs targeting the Northern California coast using long-term observations of synoptic-scale circulation, high-resolution precipitation, and a seven-decade-long catalog of AR landfalls to quantify distinct orientations of landfalling ARs. Using a probabilistic approach to relate these historic events to precursor weather patterns, we identify synoptic circulation patterns that precede AR landfalls at various lead times in the range of 0-30 days. Examination of the evolution of these precursor patterns reveals subtle but important differences in the atmospheric states that lead to AR landfalls versus those that don't. Synoptic precursors can also differentiate between orientations of ARs at landfall, which produce rather different precipitation patterns over the region's complex topography. Moreover, low-frequency climate forcing appears to modulate the likelihood of AR landfalls, as well as their preferred orientations. These results provide a link between seasonal and subseasonal timescales and suggest a new approach toward extended-range prediction of land-falling atmospheric rivers and their related precipitation.

Large CO 2 effluxes at night and during synoptic weather events significantly contribute to CO 2 emissions from a reservoir

DOE PAGES

Liu, Heping; Zhang, Qianyu; Katul, Gabriel G.; ...

2016-05-24

CO 2 emissions from inland waters are commonly determined by indirect methods that are based on the product of a gas transfer coefficient and the concentration gradient at the air water interface (e.g., wind-based gas transfer models). The measurements of concentration gradient are typically collected during the day in fair weather throughout the course of a year. Direct measurements of eddy covariance CO 2 fluxes from a large inland water body (Ross Barnett reservoir, Mississippi, USA) show that CO 2 effluxes at night are approximately 70% greater than those during the day. At longer time scales, frequent synoptic weather eventsmore » associated with extratropical cyclones induce CO 2 flux pulses, resulting in further increase in annual CO 2 effluxes by 16%. Therefore, CO 2 emission rates from this reservoir, if these diel and synoptic processes are under-sampled, are likely to be underestimated by approximately 40%. Our results also indicate that the CO 2 emission rates from global inland waters reported in the literature, when based on indirect methods, are likely underestimated. Field samplings and indirect modeling frameworks that estimate CO 2 emissions should account for both daytime-nighttime efflux difference and enhanced emissions during synoptic weather events. Furthermore, the analysis here can guide carbon emission sampling to improve regional carbon estimates.« less

Large CO 2 effluxes at night and during synoptic weather events significantly contribute to CO 2 emissions from a reservoir

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Heping; Zhang, Qianyu; Katul, Gabriel G.

CO 2 emissions from inland waters are commonly determined by indirect methods that are based on the product of a gas transfer coefficient and the concentration gradient at the air water interface (e.g., wind-based gas transfer models). The measurements of concentration gradient are typically collected during the day in fair weather throughout the course of a year. Direct measurements of eddy covariance CO 2 fluxes from a large inland water body (Ross Barnett reservoir, Mississippi, USA) show that CO 2 effluxes at night are approximately 70% greater than those during the day. At longer time scales, frequent synoptic weather eventsmore » associated with extratropical cyclones induce CO 2 flux pulses, resulting in further increase in annual CO 2 effluxes by 16%. Therefore, CO 2 emission rates from this reservoir, if these diel and synoptic processes are under-sampled, are likely to be underestimated by approximately 40%. Our results also indicate that the CO 2 emission rates from global inland waters reported in the literature, when based on indirect methods, are likely underestimated. Field samplings and indirect modeling frameworks that estimate CO 2 emissions should account for both daytime-nighttime efflux difference and enhanced emissions during synoptic weather events. Furthermore, the analysis here can guide carbon emission sampling to improve regional carbon estimates.« less

Mesoscale cyclogenesis dynamics over the southwestern Ross Sea, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrasco, Jorge F.; Bromwich, David H.

1993-07-01

Previous work has shown that frequent mesoscale cyclogenesis adjacent to Franklin Island is linked to the strong and persistent katabatic winds from East Antarctica which funnel into Terra Nova Bay and then blow out over the southwestern Ross Sea. Four mesoscale cyclones that formed near Terra Nova Bay between February 16 and 20, 1988 are examined to more clearly define the governing mechanisms. These events are investigated using all available observations, including automatic weather station data, high-resolution satellite images, satellite soundings, and hemispheric synoptic analyses. The first two cyclones formed on low-level baroclinic zones established by the synoptic scale advection of warm moist air toward the cold continental air blowing gently from East Antarctica. In the second case, baroclinic instability of this small-scale cold front was apparently triggered by the enhanced upward vertical motion associated with the approach of a midtropospheric trough. The third mesocyclone formed shortly after on a baroclinic zone over the polar plateau; the second vortex completely disrupted the usual katabatic drainage over the plateau and forced warm moist air over the coastal slopes. All three cyclones moved to the north in the prevailing cyclonic flow, but the plateau vortex lasted for only 6 hours. The fourth mesoscale low formed in conjunction with an abrupt and intense surge of katabatic air from Terra Nova Bay which resharpened the coastal baroclinic zone. At the same time a transiting midtropospheric trough probably associated with lower tropospheric upward vertical motion apparently accelerated the katabatic winds and triggered the vortex formation. A similar katabatic wind-forced mesocyclone formed near Byrd Glacier. The two vortices moved to the east-southeast and northeast, respectively, apparently being steered by the generating katabatic airstreams, and merged just to the north of the Ross Ice Shelf. The combined vortex reintensified as another trough passed overhead and moved eastward to West Antarctica where it dissipated two days later.

Synoptic thermal and oceanographic parameter distributions in the New York Bight Apex

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, R. W.; Bahn, G. S.; Thomas, J. P.

1981-01-01

Concurrent surface water measurements made from a moving oceanographic research vessel were used to calibrate and interpret remotely sensed data collected over a plume in the New York Bight Apex on 23 June 1977. Multiple regression techniques were used to develop equations to map synoptic distributions of chlorophyll a and total suspended matter in the remotely sensed scene. Thermal (which did not have surface calibration values) and water quality parameter distributions indicated a cold mass of water in the Bight Apex with an overflowing nutrient-rich warm water plume that originated in the Sandy Hook Bay and flowed south near the New Jersey shoreline. Data analysis indicates that remotely sensed data may be particularly useful for studying physical and biological processes in the top several metres of surface water at plume boundaries.

Transport calculations in the Tasman and Coral seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, R. O. R. Y.; Veronis, G.

1980-05-01

The inverse method ( WUNSCH, Reviews of Geophysics and Space Physics, 16, 583-620, 1978) has been used to determine the flow for a closed-box region in the Tasman and Coral seas. The object of the study was to determine the large scale transport through the region, and in particular, to obtain an updated estimate of the amount of water carried by the East Australian Current. We conclude that there was no evidence of an East Australian Current in late March, 1960, when the only strong, identifiable feature was a cyclonic gyre in the CoralSea. As an East Australian Current has been identified at other times, the flow appears to be transient. A series of experiments testing various aspects of the use of the inverse method in such problems is also reported. Transports in the bottom layer are shown to be sensitive to noise and to the procedure adopted for extrapolating available data to the bottom, particularly in regions of large topographic variations. The importance of working with synoptic, as opposed to climatological, data is demonstrated by the experiments. It is also shown that local eddies can affect solution at relatively distant points.

The spectrum of progressive derecho formation environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guastini, Corey T.

Progressive derechos are severe mesoscale convective systems that often form east of the Rocky Mountains during the warm season (May--August) and cause, by definition, straight-line wind damage along paths upwards of 400 km long. This study develops a subjective, seven-category classification scheme that spans the spectrum of progressive derecho formation environments from those dominated by robust upper-level ridges to those characterized by vigorous upper-level troughs. A climatology of 256 progressive derecho events is created for 1996--2013 and is categorized according to the developed classification scheme. Derecho initiation-relative composites are constructed for each of the seven groups using 0.5° Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data to document the environmental characteristics unique to each group as well as those shared among them. Finally, two in-depth case studies and five cursory case studies provide examples of the seven categories and reveal important nuances in mesoscale dynamic and thermodynamic structure inherent to all derecho cases. Results of the climatology show progressive derecho activity increases from 1 May through 1 July before decreasing again through the end of August and follows a northward trend in latitude from 1 May through 1 August before shifting slightly southward through the end of the warm season. Upslope flow in the vicinity of the Rocky Mountains initiates 28 percent of progressive derechos, upper-level troughs initiate 20 percent, 47 percent form in benign synoptic environments, and 5 percent are unclassifiable. Composite results show all progressive derecho initiation environments are marked by a long axis of instability caused by the overlap of high atmospheric moisture content and steep midlevel lapse rates, but the relative positions and strengths of upper-level troughs and ridges are crucial in determining how the instability axis develops and what its orientation in space will be. Case studies reveal instability axes forming in benign synoptic environments are generally zonally oriented and mainly the result of convergence of low-level moisture, whereas stronger synoptic-scale forcing forms meridionally oriented instability axes through the northward advection of Gulf moisture. The length and magnitude of these instability axes largely determines the duration and severity of a given progressive derecho.

Synoptic scale wind field properties from the SEASAT SASS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierson, W. J., Jr.; Sylvester, W. B.; Salfi, R. E.

1984-01-01

Dealiased SEASAT SEASAT A Scatterometer System SASS vector winds obtained during the Gulf Of Alaska SEASAT Experiment GOASEX program are processed to obtain superobservations centered on a one degree by one degree grid. The grid. The results provide values for the combined effects of mesoscale variability and communication noise on the individual SASS winds. These superobservations winds are then processed further to obtain estimates of synoptic scale vector winds stress fields, the horizontal divergence of the wind, the curl of the wind stress and the vertical velocity at 200 m above the sea surface, each with appropriate standard deviations of the estimates for each grid point value. They also explain the concentration of water vapor, liquid water and precipitation found by means of the SMMR Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer at fronts and occlusions in terms of strong warm, moist air advection in the warm air sector accompanied by convergence in the friction layer. Their quality is far superior to that of analyses based on conventional data, which are shown to yield many inconsistencies.

Examples of, reasons for, and consequences of the poor quality of wind data from ships for the marine boundary layer: Implications for remote sensing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pierson, W.J. Jr.

1990-08-15

Wind reports by data buoys are used to demonstrate that these reports have in the past provided useful values for the synoptic scale winds and that at present these reports provide very reliable values for the synoptic scale winds. Past studies of wind reports by ships have revealed that the data are of poor quality, but the causes for this poor quality are not identified. Examples of the poor quality of wind data from ships are obtained by comparing ship reports with buoy reports and comparing reports of different kinds of ships with each other. These comparisons identify many differentmore » reasons for the poor quality of wind data from ships. Suggestions are made for improving the quality of ship data. The consequences of the poor quality of ship winds are described in terms of the effects on weather and wave forecasts. The implications for remotely sensed winds are discussed.« less

An investigation of the detection of tornadic thunderstorms by observing storm top features using geosynchronous satellite imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Charles E.

1991-01-01

The number of tornado outbreak cases studied in detail was increased from the original 8. Detailed ground and aerial studies were carried out of two outbreak cases of considerable importance. It was demonstrated that multiple regression was able to predict the tornadic potential of a given thunderstorm cell by its cirrus anvil plume characteristics. It was also shown that the plume outflow intensity and the deviation of the plume alignment from storm relative winds at anvil altitude could account for the variance in tornadic potential for a given cell ranging from 0.37 to 0.82 for linear to values near 0.9 for quadratic regression. Several predictors were used in various discriminant analysis models and in censored regression models to obtain forecasts of whether a cell is tornadic and how strong tornadic it could be potentially. The experiments were performed with the synoptic scale vertical shear in the horizontal wind and with synoptic scale surface vorticity in the proximity of the cell.

Can Arctic sea-ice melt be explained by atmospheric meridional transports? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tjernstrom, M. K.; Graversen, R. G.

2010-12-01

The Arctic summer sea ice is melting away at an alarming rate, and it is now expected that an principally sea-ice free Arctic summer will occur much earlier than projected by the IPCC AR4 models. At the same time Arctic near-surface temperatures are rising at a rate much faster than the global average. The processes responsible for these changes are debated and many claim that local feedbacks, such as the surface albedo feedback, are the main culprits while other argue that remote effects, such as atmospheric circulation changes on synoptic and hemispheric scales, are the most important. We will explore the effects of the meridional transport by synoptic and larger scale atmospheric circulation on recent changes, using reanalysis data. It will be illustarated how this transport can contribute significant amounts of sensible heat, but also of atmospheric moisture such that local cloud feedbacks as well as the direct greenhouse effect of the water vapor contributes significantly to the surface energy balance over the Arctic polar cap.

Transport of a Power Plant Tracer Plume over Grand Canyon National Park.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jun; Bornstein, Robert; Lindsey, Charles G.

1999-08-01

Meteorological and air-quality data, as well as surface tracer concentration values, were collected during 1990 to assess the impacts of Navajo Generating Station (NGS) emissions on Grand Canyon National Park (GCNP) air quality. These data have been used in the present investigation to determine between direct and indirect transport routes taken by the NGS plume to produce measured high-tracer concentration events at GCNP.The meteorological data were used as input into a three-dimensional mass-consistent wind model, whose output was used as input into a horizontal forward-trajectory model. Calculated polluted air locations were compared with observed surface-tracer concentration values.Results show that complex-terrain features affect local wind-flow patterns during winter in the Grand Canyon area. Local channeling, decoupled canyon winds, and slope and valley flows dominate in the region when synoptic systems are weak. Direct NGS plume transport to GCNP occurs with northeasterly plume-height winds, while indirect transport to the park is caused by wind direction shifts associated with passing synoptic systems. Calculated polluted airmass positions along the modeled streak lines match measured surface-tracer observations in both space and time.

Global-Local Interactions Modulate Tropical Moisture Exports to the Ohio River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doss-Gollin, J.; Farnham, D. J.; Lall, U.

2016-12-01

Regional-scale extreme rainfall and flooding are temporally and spatially associated with the occurrence of tropical moisture exports (TMEs) in the Ohio River Basin (ORB). TMEs are related to but not synonymous with atmospheric rivers, which refer to specific filiamentary organizational processes. TMEs to the ORB may be driven by strong, persistent ridging over the Eastern United States and troughing over the Central United States, creating favorable conditions for southerly flow and moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. However, the strong inter-annual variation in TME activity over the ORB suggests dependence on global-scale features of the atmospheric circulation. We suggest that this synoptic dipole pattern may be viewed as the passage of one or more high-wavenumber, transient Rossby waves. We build a multi-level hierarchical Bayesian model in which the probability distribution of TME entering the ORB is a function of the phase and amplitude of the traveling waves. In turn, the joint distribution of the phase and amplitude of this wave is modulated by hemispheric-scale features of the atmospheric and oceanic circulation, and the amplitude and synchronization of quasi-stationary Rossby waves with wavenumber 1-4. Our approach bridges information about different features of the atmospheric circulation which inform the predictability of TME at multiple time scales and develops existing understanding of the atmospheric drivers of TMEs beyond existing composite and EOF studies.

MODELING THE SUN’S SMALL-SCALE GLOBAL PHOTOSPHERIC MAGNETIC FIELD

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meyer, K. A.; Mackay, D. H., E-mail: k.meyer@abertay.ac.uk

We present a new model for the Sun’s global photospheric magnetic field during a deep minimum of activity, in which no active regions emerge. The emergence and subsequent evolution of small-scale magnetic features across the full solar surface is simulated, subject to the influence of a global supergranular flow pattern. Visually, the resulting simulated magnetograms reproduce the typical structure and scale observed in quiet Sun magnetograms. Quantitatively, the simulation quickly reaches a steady state, resulting in a mean field and flux distribution that are in good agreement with those determined from observations. A potential coronal magnetic field is extrapolated frommore » the simulated full Sun magnetograms to consider the implications of such a quiet photospheric magnetic field on the corona and inner heliosphere. The bulk of the coronal magnetic field closes very low down, in short connections between small-scale features in the simulated magnetic network. Just 0.1% of the photospheric magnetic flux is found to be open at 2.5 R {sub ⊙}, around 10–100 times less than that determined for typical Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager synoptic map observations. If such conditions were to exist on the Sun, this would lead to a significantly weaker interplanetary magnetic field than is currently observed, and hence a much higher cosmic ray flux at Earth.« less

Evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts by TIGGE ensembles for south China during the presummer rainy season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ling; Luo, Yali

2017-08-01

Based on The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data set, this study evaluates the ability of global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Korean Meteorological Administration, and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) to predict presummer rainy season (April-June) precipitation in south China. Evaluation of 5 day forecasts in three seasons (2013-2015) demonstrates the higher skill of probability matching forecasts compared to simple ensemble mean forecasts and shows that the deterministic forecast is a close second. The EPSs overestimate light-to-heavy rainfall (0.1 to 30 mm/12 h) and underestimate heavier rainfall (>30 mm/12 h), with JMA being the worst. By analyzing the synoptic situations predicted by the identified more skillful (ECMWF) and less skillful (JMA and CMA) EPSs and the ensemble sensitivity for four representative cases of torrential rainfall, the transport of warm-moist air into south China by the low-level southwesterly flow, upstream of the torrential rainfall regions, is found to be a key synoptic factor that controls the quantitative precipitation forecast. The results also suggest that prediction of locally produced torrential rainfall is more challenging than prediction of more extensively distributed torrential rainfall. A slight improvement in the performance is obtained by shortening the forecast lead time from 30-36 h to 18-24 h to 6-12 h for the cases with large-scale forcing, but not for the locally produced cases.

Vegetation Species Composition and Canopy Architecture Information Expressed in Leaf Water Absorption Measured in the 1000nm and 2200 nm Spectral Region by an Imaging Spectometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, R. O.; Roberts, D. A.

1994-01-01

Plant species composition and plant architectural attributes are critical parameters required for the measuring, monitoring and modeling of terrestrial ecosystems. Remote sensing is commonly cited as an important tool for deriving vegetation properties at an appropriate scale for ecosystem studies, ranging from local, to regional and even synoptic scales (e.g. Wessman 1992).

Submesoscale dispersion in the vicinity of the Deepwater Horizon spill.

PubMed

Poje, Andrew C; Ozgökmen, Tamay M; Lipphardt, Bruce L; Haus, Brian K; Ryan, Edward H; Haza, Angelique C; Jacobs, Gregg A; Reniers, A J H M; Olascoaga, Maria Josefina; Novelli, Guillaume; Griffa, Annalisa; Beron-Vera, Francisco J; Chen, Shuyi S; Coelho, Emanuel; Hogan, Patrick J; Kirwan, Albert D; Huntley, Helga S; Mariano, Arthur J

2014-09-02

Reliable forecasts for the dispersion of oceanic contamination are important for coastal ecosystems, society, and the economy as evidenced by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 and the Fukushima nuclear plant incident in the Pacific Ocean in 2011. Accurate prediction of pollutant pathways and concentrations at the ocean surface requires understanding ocean dynamics over a broad range of spatial scales. Fundamental questions concerning the structure of the velocity field at the submesoscales (100 m to tens of kilometers, hours to days) remain unresolved due to a lack of synoptic measurements at these scales. Using high-frequency position data provided by the near-simultaneous release of hundreds of accurately tracked surface drifters, we study the structure of submesoscale surface velocity fluctuations in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Observed two-point statistics confirm the accuracy of classic turbulence scaling laws at 200-m to 50-km scales and clearly indicate that dispersion at the submesoscales is local, driven predominantly by energetic submesoscale fluctuations. The results demonstrate the feasibility and utility of deploying large clusters of drifting instruments to provide synoptic observations of spatial variability of the ocean surface velocity field. Our findings allow quantification of the submesoscale-driven dispersion missing in current operational circulation models and satellite altimeter-derived velocity fields.

Submesoscale dispersion in the vicinity of the Deepwater Horizon spill

PubMed Central

Poje, Andrew C.; Özgökmen, Tamay M.; Lipphardt, Bruce L.; Haus, Brian K.; Ryan, Edward H.; Haza, Angelique C.; Jacobs, Gregg A.; Reniers, A. J. H. M.; Olascoaga, Maria Josefina; Novelli, Guillaume; Griffa, Annalisa; Beron-Vera, Francisco J.; Chen, Shuyi S.; Coelho, Emanuel; Hogan, Patrick J.; Kirwan, Albert D.; Huntley, Helga S.; Mariano, Arthur J.

2014-01-01

Reliable forecasts for the dispersion of oceanic contamination are important for coastal ecosystems, society, and the economy as evidenced by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 and the Fukushima nuclear plant incident in the Pacific Ocean in 2011. Accurate prediction of pollutant pathways and concentrations at the ocean surface requires understanding ocean dynamics over a broad range of spatial scales. Fundamental questions concerning the structure of the velocity field at the submesoscales (100 m to tens of kilometers, hours to days) remain unresolved due to a lack of synoptic measurements at these scales. Using high-frequency position data provided by the near-simultaneous release of hundreds of accurately tracked surface drifters, we study the structure of submesoscale surface velocity fluctuations in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Observed two-point statistics confirm the accuracy of classic turbulence scaling laws at 200-m to 50-km scales and clearly indicate that dispersion at the submesoscales is local, driven predominantly by energetic submesoscale fluctuations. The results demonstrate the feasibility and utility of deploying large clusters of drifting instruments to provide synoptic observations of spatial variability of the ocean surface velocity field. Our findings allow quantification of the submesoscale-driven dispersion missing in current operational circulation models and satellite altimeter-derived velocity fields. PMID:25136097

Trends in winter circulation over the British Isles and central Europe in twenty-first century projections by 25 CMIP5 GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stryhal, Jan; Huth, Radan

2018-03-01

Winter midlatitude atmospheric circulation has been extensively studied for its tight link to surface weather, and automated circulation classifications have often been used to this end. Here, eight such classifications are applied to daily sea level pressure patterns simulated by an ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs twenty-first century projections for the British Isles and central Europe in order to robustly estimate future changes in frequency, persistence, and strength of synoptic-scale circulation there. All methods are able to identify present-day biases of models reported before, such as an overestimated occurrence of zonal flow and underestimation of anticyclonic conditions and easterly advection, although the strength of these biases varies among the methods. In future, models show that the zonal flow will become more frequent while the strength of the mean flow is not projected to change. Over the British Isles, the models that better simulate the latitude of zonal flow over the historical period indicate a slight equatorward shift of westerlies in their projections, while the poleward expansion of circulation—expected in future at global scale—is apparent in those models that have large errors. Over central Europe, some classifications indicate an increase in persistence and especially in frequency of anticyclonic types, which is, however, shown to be rather an artifact of some methods than a real feature. On the other hand, the easterly flow is robustly projected to become markedly weaker in central Europe, which we hypothesize might be an important factor contributing to the projected decrease of cold extremes there.

A study of the stable boundary layer in strong gap flows in northwest Greenland using a research aircraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinemann, Günther; Drüe, Clemens

2016-04-01

Gap flows and the stable boundary layer (SBL) were studied in northwest Greenland during the aircraft-based experiment IKAPOS (Investigation of Katabatic winds and Polynyas during Summer) in June 2010. The measurements were performed using the research aircraft POLAR 5 of Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI, Bremerhaven). Besides navigational and basic meteorological instrumentation, the aircraft was equipped with radiation and surface temperature sensors, two laser altimeters, and video and digital cameras. In order to determine turbulent heat and momentum fluxes, POLAR 5 was instrumented with a turbulence measurement system collecting data on a nose boom with a sampling rate of 100 Hz. In the area of the Nares Strait a stable, but fully turbulent boundary layer with strong winds of 15 m s-1 to 20 m s-1 was found during conditions of relatively warm synoptically induced northerly winds through the Nares Strait. Strong surface inversions were present in the lowest 100 m to 200 m. As a consequence of channeling effects a well-pronounced low-level jet (LLJ) system was documented. The channeling process is consistent with gap flow theory and can be shown to occur at the topographic gap between Greenland and Canada represented by the Smith Sound. While the flow through the gap and over the surrounding mountains leads to the lowering of isotropic surfaces and the acceleration of the flow, the strong turbulence associated with the LLJ leads to the development of an internal thermal SBL past the gap. Turbulence statistics in this fully turbulent SBL can be shown to follow the local scaling behaviour.

STREAMBED PARTICLE SIZE FROM PEBBLE COUNTS USING VISUALLY ESTIMATED SIZE CLSASES: JUNK OR USEFUL DATA?

EPA Science Inventory

In large-scale studies, it is often neither feasible nor necessary to obtain the large samples of 400 particles advocated by many geomorphologists to adequately quantify streambed surface particle-size distributions. Synoptic surveys such as U.S. Environmental Protection Agency...

Synoptic-scale variability of arctic gravity wave activity during summer and potential impacts on the high latitude middle atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerrard, Andrew John

Although the role of gravity waves in the global atmospheric circulation is generally understood, discussion of synoptic gravity wave activity, especially pertaining to high latitude summer environments, is lacking in the literature. Tropospherically generated gravity waves greatly contribute to the zonal drag necessary to induce meridional outflow and subsequent upwelling observed in the adiabatically cooled summer mesosphere, ultimately resulting in an environment conducive to mesospheric cloud formation. However, the very gravity wave activity responsible for this induced cooling is also believed to be a major source of variability on mesospheric clouds over shorter time scales, and this topic should be of considerable interest if such clouds are to be used as tracers of the global climate. It is therefore the purpose of this thesis to explore high latitude synoptic gravity wave activity and ultimately seek an understanding of the associated influence on overlaying summer mesospheric clouds. Another goal is to better understand and account for potential variability in high latitude middle and upper atmospheric measurements that can be directly associated with "weather conditions" at lower altitudes. These endeavors are addressed through Rayleigh/aerosol lidar data obtained from the ARCtic LIdar TEchnology (ARCLITE) facility located at Sondrestrom, Greenland (67°N, 310°E), global tropospheric and stratospheric analyses and forecasts, and the Gravity-wave Regional Or Global RAy Tracer (GROGRAT) model. In this study we are able to show that (a) the upper stratospheric gravity wave strength and the brightness of overlaying mesospheric clouds, as measured by representative field proxies, are negatively correlated over time scales of less than a day, (b) such upper stratospheric gravity wave variability is inversely related to mesospheric cloud variability on time scales of ˜1 to 4 hours, (c) gravity wave hindcasts faithfully reproduce experimental lidar observations taken over the month of August 1996, (d) the observed upper stratospheric gravity wave activity is shown to originate from regionalized, non-orographic sources in the troposphere, (e) such gravity wave activity can propagate through the middle atmosphere, potentially impacting overlaying mesospheric clouds, and (f) the forecasting of such upper stratospheric gravity wave activity, and therefore the corresponding mesospheric cloud activity, is feasible. In conclusion, the results herein provide additional evidence of gravity wave influence on mesospheric clouds, a step towards the forecasting of regional gravity wave activity, and ultimately a better understanding of synoptic gravity wave activity at high latitudes.

Modern Climate Analogues of Late-Quaternary Paleoclimates for the Western United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mock, Cary Jeffrey

This study examined spatial variations of modern and late-Quaternary climates for the western United States. Synoptic climatological analyses of the modern record identified the predominate climatic controls that normally produce the principal modes of spatial climatic variability. They also provided a modern standard to assess past climates. Maps of the month-to-month changes in 500 mb heights, sea-level pressure, temperature, and precipitation illustrated how different climatic controls govern the annual cycle of climatic response. The patterns of precipitation ratios, precipitation bar graphs, and the seasonal precipitation maximum provided additional insight into how different climatic controls influence spatial climatic variations. Synoptic-scale patterns from general circulation model (GCM) simulations or from analyses of climatic indices were used as the basis for finding modern climate analogues for 18 ka and 9 ka. Composite anomaly maps of atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and temperature were compared with effective moisture maps compiled from proxy data to infer how the patterns, which were evident from the proxy data, were generated. The analyses of the modern synoptic climatology indicate that smaller-scale climatic controls must be considered along with larger-scale ones in order to explain patterns of spatial climate heterogeneity. Climatic extremes indicate that changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation seasonality are the exception rather than the rule, reflecting the strong influence of smaller-scale controls. Modern climate analogues for both 18 ka and 9 ka clearly depict the dry Northwest/wet Southwest contrast that is suggested by GCM simulations and paleoclimatic evidence. 18 ka analogues also show the importance of smaller-scale climatic controls in explaining spatial climatic variation in the Northwest and northern Great Plains. 9 ka analogues provide climatological explanations for patterns of spatial heterogeneity over several mountainous areas as suggested by paleoclimatic evidence. Modern analogues of past climates supplement modeling approaches by providing information below the resolution of model simulations. Analogues can be used to examine the controls of spatial paleoclimatic variation if sufficient instrumental data and paleoclimatic evidence are available, and if one carefully exercises uniformitarianism when extrapolating modern relationships to the past.

Synoptic scale convection and wave activity over tropical Africa and the Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mekonnen, Ademe

The objective of this research is to investigate synoptic scale convection and its association with wave disturbances over eastern Atlantic and tropical Africa. Analyses of convection highlight a significant peak periodicity in 2-6 day time scale over the Atlantic and most of tropical North Africa. The 2-6 day convective variance is the same order of magnitude over West and East Africa and accounts for 25%-35% of the total variance. However, dynamical measures of the African easterly wave (AEW) activity showed marked differences, variances over the West being more than the East. The explanation for this is that AEWs are initiated by convective precursors in the east and grow as they propagate westwards along the African easterly jet. Results show two major regions of synoptic time scale convection that are important for AEW initiation: the Darfur mountains (˜20°E) and the Ethiopian highlands (35°-40°E), with the former being more consistent and coherent. This study also shows the presence of eastward moving convective structures over tropical Africa, which are associated with Kelvin waves. The Kelvin waves originate in the Pacific and propagate across Africa. An important aspect of the Kelvin wave activity is its impact on convection and rainfall and its interaction with AEWs. Analysis of July-September 1987 weather events showed that convection and rainfall increase in association with Kelvin waves over tropical Africa. This event also suggested a series of AEWs initiated in association with Kelvin convection over tropical Africa. Spectral analysis of convection indicates a significant 3-4 day periodicity over Central Sudan, a region not known for wave disturbances. Two key factors that are associated with this variance are: (a) convective variability over equatorial Congo, and (b) upper level easterly waves that originate over Bay of Bengal-Southeast Asia. Results show the presence of a dipole pattern between the equatorial and East African convection that oscillates on a 4-day time scale. It is suggested that the two regions interact through a recharge-discharge process. This study also shows that convection over East Africa enhances in association with anomalous northerlies and weakens in association with southerlies in the upper troposphere.

Linking storm surge activity and circulation variability along the Spanish coast through a synoptic pattern classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasilla Álvarez, Domingo; Garcia Codrón, Juan Carlos

2010-05-01

The potentially negative consequences resulting from the estimations of global sea level rising along the current century are a matter of serious concern in many coastal areas worldwide. Most of the negative consequences of the sea level variability, such as flooding or erosion, are linked to episodic events of strong atmospheric forcing represented by deep atmospheric disturbances, especially if they combine with extreme astronomical high tides. Moreover, the interaction between the prevailing flows during such events and the actual orientation of the coast line might accelerate or mitigate such impacts. This contribution analyses sea surge variations measured at five tide-gauge stations located around the Iberian Peninsula and their relationships with regional scale circulation patterns with local-scale winds. Its aim is to improve the knowledge of surge related-coastal-risks by analysing the relationship between surges and their atmospheric forcing factors at different spatial scales. The oceanographic data set consists of hourly data from 5 tide gauge stations (Santander, Vigo, Bonanza, Málaga, Valencia and Barcelona) disseminated along the Spanish coastline, provided by Puertos del Estado. To explore the atmospheric mechanisms responsible for the sign and magnitude of sea surges, a regional Eulerian approach (a synoptic typing) were combined with a larger-scale Lagrangian method, based on the analysis of storm-tracks over the Atlantic and local information (synop reports) obtained from the closest meteorological stations to the tide gauges. The synoptic catalogue was obtained following a procedure that combines Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for reduction purposes and clustering (Ward plus K-means) to define the circulation types. Sea level pressure, surface 10m U and V wind components gridded data were obtained from NCEP Reanalysis, while storm tracks and cyclone statistics were extracted from the CDC Map Room Climate Products Storm Track Data (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/st_data.html). The second task was to evaluate the performance of each circulation type on the spatial patterns of a daily fire danger risk index (Canadian Fire Weather Index, FWI). Finally, anomaly maps of several surface and low level climate variables, corresponding to the dates of ignition of the very large forest fires within each synoptic pattern, were calculated to provide insight of the specific conditions associated to those extreme events. A principal component analysis upon 6 hourly residuals highlighted the homogeneous behaviour of the tide gauges and provided a regional quantitative index to identify the largest storm surges. The leading PCA displayed a homogeneous spatial pattern, describing the low frequency variability along the entire coast, in spite of different orientations of the coast, accounting for more than 80% of the total variability. The second PCA displayed opposite phases between the Atlantic and the Mediterranean. Furthermore, the results suggest that surges are a regional rather than local phenomenon, probably related to the same single physical forcing. The comparison between extreme surge events and circulation patterns highlighted that single physical mechanism is represented by extratropical cyclonic disturbances located at the north-western corner of the Iberian Peninsula, responsible for an environment characterized by low pressure readings and westerly-southwesterly winds. That wind pattern acquires an onshore component in the Atlantic coast, but becomes offshore in the Mediterranean. So, the main mechanism responsible for those storm surges is the inverse barometer effect, being the wind dragging secondary. The main physical forcing of the storm surges, the extratropical cyclones, have experience a reduction of this frequency and a marked reduction in their strength since 1950, replaced by stable circulations. Both conditions suggest a long term reduction of the frequency and the magnitude of storm surges.

Modeling of Subsurface Lagrangian Sensor Swarms for Spatially Distributed Current Measurements in High Energy Coastal Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, T. W.; Polagye, B. L.

2016-02-01

Coastal ecosystems are characterized by spatially and temporally varying hydrodynamics. In marine renewable energy applications, these variations strongly influence project economics and in oceanographic studies, they impact accuracy of biological transport and pollutant dispersion models. While stationary point or profile measurements are relatively straight forward, spatial representativeness of point measurements can be poor due to strong gradients. Moving platforms, such as AUVs or surface vessels, offer better coverage, but suffer from energetic constraints (AUVs) and resolvable scales (vessels). A system of sub-surface, drifting sensor packages is being developed to provide spatially distributed, synoptic data sets of coastal hydrodynamics with meter-scale resolution over a regional extent of a kilometer. Computational investigation has informed system parameters such as drifter size and shape, necessary position accuracy, number of drifters, and deployment methods. A hydrodynamic domain with complex flow features was created using a computational fluid dynamics code. A simple model of drifter dynamics propagate the drifters through the domain in post-processing. System parameters are evaluated relative to their ability to accurately recreate domain hydrodynamics. Implications of these results for an inexpensive, depth-controlled Lagrangian drifter system is presented.

Low-flow water-quality characterization of the Gore Creek watershed, upper Colorado River basin, Colorado, August 1996

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wynn, Kirby H.; Spahr, Norman E.

1998-01-01

The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCOL) is one of 59 National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) study units designed to assess the status and trends of the Nation?s water quality (Leahy and others, 1990). The UCOL study unit began operation in 1994, and surface-water-quality data collection at a network of 14 sites began in October 1995 (Apodaca and others, 1996; Spahr and others, 1996). Gore Creek, which flows through Vail, Colorado, originates in pristine alpine headwaters and is designated a gold-medal trout fishery. The creek drains an area of about 102 square miles and is a tributary to the Eagle River. Gore Creek at the mouth near Minturn (site 13 in fig. 1) is one of the 14 sites in the UCOL network. This site was selected to evaluate water quality resulting from urban development and recreational land use. The Gore Creek watershed has undergone rapid land-use changes since the 1960?s as the Vail area shifted from traditional mountain ranchlands to a four-season resort community. Residential, recreational, commercial, and transportation development continues near Gore Creek and its tributaries to support the increasing permanent and tourist population of the area. Interstate 70 runs through the watershed from Vail Pass near site 14, along the eastern side of Black Gore Creek, and along the northern side of the main stem of Gore Creek to the mouth of the watershed (fig. 1). A major local concern is how increasing urbanization/recreation affects the water quality, gold-medal trout fishery, and aesthetic values of Gore Creek. An evaluation of the spatial characteristics of water quality in the watershed upstream from site 13 at the mouth of Gore Creek (fig. 1) can provide local water and land managers with information necessary to establish water policy and make land-use planning decisions to maintain or improve water quality. Historical data collected at the mouth of Gore Creek provide information about water quality resulting from land use, but a synoptic sampling is needed to determine the distribution and sources of water-quality constituents at one point in time. In August 1996, a low-flow synoptic sampling for analyses of water-quality properties and constituents at sites in the Gore Creek watershed was done by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Town of Vail, Eagle River Water and Sanitation District, Upper Eagle River Water Authority, and Northwest Colorado Council of Governments, to evaluate the water quality of Gore Creek. The August low-flow period can be important from water-quality and stream ecology perspectives. There is less water available to dilute any contaminants entering the streams, and stream temperatures are highest during August. Physical habitat for aquatic plants and animals is smaller than during most other times of the year. To address these more extreme water-quality and ecological conditions, the synoptic sampling was conducted during the summer low-flow period. Specific objectives of this sampling included: 1. Establish a current data set representing the spatial characteristics of low-flow water-quality conditions in the Gore Creek watershed, and 2. Develop some understanding of land-use and water-quality relations in the watershed. This fact sheet presents hydrologic background information and an analysis of general water-quality properties and constituents, trace elements, and nutrients collected in water samples during low-flow synoptic sampling of the Gore Creek watershed. The U.S. Geological Survey also is conducting a study of the algae and macroinvertebrate communities and physical habitat of streams in the Gore Creek watershed during low flow. This study is designed to provide information about land-use and stream ecology relations in the watershed.

Tomographic Sounding of Protoplanetary and Transitional Disks: Using Inner Disk Variability at Near to Mid-IR Wavelengths to Probe Conditions in the Outer Disk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grady, C. A.; Sitko, M.L.

2013-01-01

Spitzer synoptic monitoring of young stellar associations has demonstrated that variability among young stars and their disks is ubiquitous. The Spitzer studies have been limited by target visibility windows and cover only a short temporal baseline in years. A complementary approach is to focus on stars chosen for high-value observations (e.g. high-contrast imaging, interferometry, or access to wavelengths which are difficult to achieve from the ground) where the synoptic data can augment the imagery or interferometry as well as probing disk structure. In this talk, we discuss how synoptic data for two protoplanetary disks, MWC 480 and HD 163296, constrain the dust disk scale height, account for variable disk illumination, and can be used to locate emission features, such as the IR bands commonly associated with PAHs in the disk, as part of our SOFIA cycle 1 study. Similar variability is now known for several pre-transitional disks, where synoptic data can be used to identify inner disks which are not coplanar with the outer disk, and which may be relicts of giant planet-giant planet scattering events. Despite the logistical difficulties in arranging supporting, coordinated observations in tandem with high-value observations, such data have allowed us to place imagery in context, constrained structures in inner disks not accessible to direct imagery, and may be a tool for identifying systems where planet scattering events have occurred.

Using Advanced Monitoring Tools to Evaluate PM PM2.5 2.5 in San Joaquin Valley

EPA Science Inventory

One of the primary data deficiencies that prevent the advance of policy relevant research on particulate matter, ozone, and associated precursors is the lack of measurement data and knowledge on the true vertical profile and synoptic-scale spatial distributions of the pollutants....

Ocean color - Availability of the global data set

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feldman, Gene; Kuring, Norman; Ng, Carolyn; Esaias, Wayne; Mcclain, Chuck; Elrod, Jane; Maynard, Nancy; Endres, Dan

1989-01-01

The use of satellite observations of ocean color to provide reliable estimates of marine phytoplankton biomass on synoptic scales is examined. An overview is given of the Coastal Zone Color Scanner data processing system. The archiving and distribution of ocean color data are discussed, and NASA-sponsored archive sites are listed.

LEAF AREA INDEX CHANGE DETECTION OF UNDERSTORY VEGETATION IN THE ALBEMARLE-PAMLICO BASIN USING IKOMOS AND LANDSAT ETM+ SATELLITE DATA

EPA Science Inventory

The advent of remotely sensed data from satellite platforms has enabled the research community to examine vegetative spatial distributions over regional and global scales. This assessment of ecosystem condition through the synoptic monitoring of terrestrial vegetation extent, bio...

LEAF AREA INDEX (LAI) CHANGES DETECTION OF UNDERSTORY VEGETATION IN THE ALBEMARLE-PAMLICO BASIN IKONOS AND LANDSAT ETM+ SATELLITE DATA

EPA Science Inventory

The advent of remotely sensed data from satellite platforms has enabled the research community to examine vegetative spatial distributions over regional and global scales. This assessment of ecosystem condition through the synoptic monitoring of terrestrial vegetation extent, bio...

A TRAJECTORY-CLUSTERING CORRELATION METHODOLOGY FOR EXAMINING THE LONG-RANGE TRANSPORT OF AIR POLLUTANTS. (R825260)

EPA Science Inventory

We present a robust methodology for examining the relationship between synoptic-scale atmospheric transport patterns and pollutant concentration levels observed at a site. Our approach entails calculating a large number of back-trajectories from the observational site over a long...

A Multiscale Analysis of Upstream Precursors associated with High Impact Severe Weather Events across the Upper Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metz, N. D.; Cordeira, J. M.

2014-12-01

Between 30 June and 1 July 2011, a heavy-rain-producing mesoscale convective system (MCS) occurred over Lake Michigan. A second MCS subsequently occurred over Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin on 1 July 2011 resulting in more than 200 severe weather reports. The antecedent large-scale flow evolution was strongly influenced by early-season tropical cyclones (TCs) Haima and Meari in the western North Pacific. The recurvature and subsequent interaction of these TCs with the extratropical large-scale flow was associated with Rossby wave train (RWT) amplification on 22-26 June 2011 over the western North Pacific and dispersion across North America on 28-30 June 2011. The RWT dispersion was associated with trough (ridge) development over western (central) North America at the time of MCS development over the Midwestern United States. This evolution of the large-scale flow and attendant meso-synoptic scale forcing for ascent were particularly conducive to heavy rainfall and severe weather as a surface-based mixed layer over the Intermountain Western United States was advected eastward, transitioning to an elevated mixed layer (EML) over the Midwestern United States. These two MCSs serve as motivation for a climatology of EML days and their relationship to severe weather over the Midwestern United States. The climatology illustrates that severe weather reports near Minneapolis, MN during the summer are twice as numerous on EML days as compared to normal. The increase in severe weather reports are primarily driven by more large hail and severe wind, which account for 95% of all severe weather reports on EML days. A time-lagged composite analysis indicates that RWT amplification over the central North Pacific and RWT dispersion across the eastern North Pacific and North American, as occurred prior to the 30 June-1 July period, is a common upstream precursor to EML days over the Midwestern United States. These results suggest that investigations of far upstream precursors to RWT amplification and dispersion over the North Pacific may be particularly useful in better understanding warm-season severe weather outbreaks over North America.

Cirrus cloud development in a mobile upper tropospheric trough: The November 26th FIRE cirrus case study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mace, Gerald G.; Ackerman, Thomas P.

1993-01-01

The period from 18 UTC 26 Nov. 1991 to roughly 23 UTC 26 Nov. 1991 is one of the study periods of the FIRE (First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Regional Experiment) 2 field campaign. The middle and upper tropospheric cloud data that was collected during this time allowed FIRE scientists to learn a great deal about the detailed structure, microphysics, and radiative characteristics of the mid latitude cirrus that occurred during that time. Modeling studies that range from the microphysical to the mesoscale are now underway attempting to piece the detailed knowledge of this cloud system into a coherent picture of the atmospheric processes important to cirrus cloud development and maintenance. An important component of the modeling work, either as an input parameter in the case of cloud-scale models, or as output in the case of meso and larger scale models, is the large scale forcing of the cloud system. By forcing we mean the synoptic scale vertical motions and moisture budget that initially send air parcels ascending and supply the water vapor to allow condensation during ascent. Defining this forcing from the synoptic scale to the cloud scale is one of the stated scientific objectives of the FIRE program. From the standpoint of model validation, it is also necessary that the vertical motions and large scale moisture budget of the case studies be derived from observations. It is considered important that the models used to simulate the observed cloud fields begin with the correct dynamics and that the dynamics be in the right place for the right reasons.

Development and Evaluation of an Integrated Hydrological Modeling Framework for Monitoring and Understanding Floods and Droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Z. L.; Wu, W. Y.; Lin, P.; Maidment, D. R.

2017-12-01

Extreme water events such as catastrophic floods and severe droughts have increased in recent decades. Mitigating the risk to lives, food security, infrastructure, energy supplies, as well as numerous other industries posed by these extreme events requires informed decision-making and planning based on sound science. We are developing a global water modeling capability by building models that will provide total operational water predictions (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, groundwater, channel flow, inundation, snow) at unprecedented spatial resolutions and updated frequencies. Toward this goal, this talk presents an integrated global hydrological modeling framework that takes advantage of gridded meteorological forcing, land surface modeling, channeled flow modeling, ground observations, and satellite remote sensing. Launched in August 2016, the National Water Model successfully incorporates weather forecasts to predict river flows for more than 2.7 million rivers across the continental United States, which transfers a "synoptic weather map" to a "synoptic river flow map" operationally. In this study, we apply a similar framework to a high-resolution global river network database, which is developed from a hierarchical Dominant River Tracing (DRT) algorithm, and runoff output from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) to a vector-based river routing model (The Routing Application for Parallel Computation of Discharge, RAPID) to produce river flows from 2001 to 2016 using Message Passing Interface (MPI) on Texas Advanced Computer Center's Stampede system. In this simulation, global river discharges for more than 177,000 rivers are computed every 30 minutes. The modeling framework's performance is evaluated with various observations including river flows at more than 400 gauge stations globally. Overall, the model exhibits a reasonably good performance in simulating the averaged patterns of terrestrial water storage, evapotranspiration and runoff. The system is appropriate for monitoring and studying floods and droughts. Directions for future research will be outlined and discussed.

A case study using kinematic quantities derived from a triangle of VHF Doppler wind profilers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, Catherine A.; Forbes, Gregory S.

1989-01-01

Horizontal divergence, relative vorticity, kinematic vertical velocity, and geostrophic and ageostrophic winds are computed from Colorado profiler network data to investigate an upslope snowstorm in northeastern Colorado. Horizontal divergence and relative vorticity are computed using the Gauss and Stokes theorems, respectively. Kinematic vertical velocities are obtained from the surface to 9 km by vertically integrating the continuity equation. The geostrophic and ageostrophic winds are computed by applying a finite differencing technique to evaluate the derivatives in the horizontal equations of motion. Comparison of the synoptic-scale data with the profiler network data reveals that the two datasets are generally consistent. Also, the profiler-derived quantities exhibit coherent vertical and temporal patterns consistent with conceptual and theoretical flow fields of various meteorological phenomena. It is suggested that the profiler-derived quantities are of potential use to weather forecasters in that they enable the dynamic and kinematic interpretation of weather system structure to be made and thus have nowcasting and short-term forecasting value.

Foehn at the lowest place on earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayr, Georg; Metzger, Jutta; Mayr, Raphael

2017-04-01

Foehn occurs at the Dead Sea. Measurements from weather stations at the valley floor and on the slope show that the prime season for foehn is summer and the prime time late afternoon and evening (using the objective classification algorithm of Plavcan et al (2014)[1]). During summer synoptic scale forcing with cross-barrier winds is rare and thus the gravity-wave-driven concept cannot be used to explain the occurrence of foehn. The density-driven foehn concept [2], on the other hand, with denser air at crest level upstream than in the valley can explain the occurrence of foehn. It also explains the differences in foehn frequency between the slope and valley bottom station. References: [1] Plavcan, D., Mayr, G. J., & Zeileis, A. (2014). Automatic and probabilistic foehn diagnosis with a statistical mixture model. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 53(3), 652-659. [2] Mayr, G. J., & Armi, L. (2010). The influence of downstream diurnal heating on the descent of flow across the Sierras. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 49(9), 1906-1912.

Extreme Winter/Early-Spring Temperature Anomalies in Central Europe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, Joseph; Atlas, Robert; Ardizzone, Joseph; Brakke, Thomas; Chou, Shu-Hsien; Jusem, Juan Carlos; Glantz, Michael; Rogers, Jeff; Sud, Yogesh; Susskind, Joel

2000-01-01

Extreme seasonal fluctuations of the surface-air temperature characterize the climate of central Europe, 45-60 deg North Temperature difference between warm 1990 and cold 1996 in the January-March period, persisting for more than two weeks at a time, amounted to 18 C for extensive areas. These anomalies in the surface-air temperature stem in the first place from differences in the low level flow from the eastern North-Atlantic: the value of the Index 1na of southwesterlies over the eastern North-Atlantic was 8.0 m/s in February 1990, but only 2.6 m/ s in February 1996. The primary forcing by warm advection to positive anomalies in monthly mean surface temperature produced strong synoptic-scale uplift at the 700 mb level over some regions in Europe. The strong uplift contributed in 1990 to a much larger cloud-cover over central Europe, which reduced heat-loss to space (greenhouse effect). Thus, spring arrived earlier than usual in 1990, but later than usual in 1996.

A diagnostic approach to obtaining planetary boundary layer winds using satellite-derived thermal data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belt, Carol L.; Fuelberg, Henry E.

1984-01-01

The feasibility of using satellite derived thermal data to generate realistic synoptic scale winds within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is examined. Diagnostic modified Ekman wind equations from the Air Force Global Weather Central (AFGWC) Boundary Layer Model are used to compute winds at seven levels within the PBL transition layer (50 m to 1600 m AGL). Satellite derived winds based on 62 predawn TIROS-N soundings are compared to similarly derived wind fields based on 39 AVE-SESAME II rawinsonde (RAOB) soundings taken 2 h later. Actual wind fields are also used as a basis for comparison. Qualitative and statistical comparisons show that the Ekman winds from both sources are in very close agreement, with an average vector correlation coefficient of 0.815. Best results are obtained at 300 m AGL. Satellite winds tend to be slightly weaker than their RAOB counterparts and exhibit a greater degree of cross-isobaric flow. The modified Ekman winds show a significant improvement over geostrophic values at levels nearest the surface.

The 0.125 degree finite-volume General Circulation Model on the NASA Columbia Supercomputer: Preliminary Simulations of Mesoscale Vortices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, B.-W.; Atlas, R.; Chern, J.-D.; Reale, O.; Lin, S.-J.; Lee, T.; Chang, J.

2005-01-01

The NASA Columbia supercomputer was ranked second on the TOP500 List in November, 2004. Such a quantum jump in computing power provides unprecedented opportunities to conduct ultra-high resolution simulations with the finite-volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM). During 2004, the model was run in realtime experimentally at 0.25 degree resolution producing remarkable hurricane forecasts [Atlas et al., 2005]. In 2005, the horizontal resolution was further doubled, which makes the fvGCM comparable to the first mesoscale resolving General Circulation Model at the Earth Simulator Center [Ohfuchi et al., 2004]. Nine 5-day 0.125 degree simulations of three hurricanes in 2004 are presented first for model validation. Then it is shown how the model can simulate the formation of the Catalina eddies and Hawaiian lee vortices, which are generated by the interaction of the synoptic-scale flow with surface forcing, and have never been reproduced in a GCM before.)

On the role of successive downstream development in East Asian polar air outbreaks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jung, C. H.; Hitchman, M. H.

1982-01-01

Common features were drawn from 16 events of wintertime migration of cold Siberian air moving southeastward across the east Asia coast, accompanied by strong northerly winds. Criteria for including an event as an instance of a typical synoptic scale occurrence comprised a surface pressure gradient over Korea exceeding 2.5 mb/100 km, and a drop in the daily mean temperature of over 5 C in one day. The events were required to have at least a 10 day separation. A sequence of events was discerned, including the formation of troughs and ridges over the western north Atlantic 6-7 days before an event, their development and decay downstream from one another across the Eurasian continent, and then an outbreak of polar weather. The troughs and ridges displayed maximum amplitude in the same places in the majority of cases studied, with the center moving along a curved trajectory of the 300 mb flow at nearly 30 deg longitudinally every day.

The effects of divergent and nondivergent winds on the kinetic energy budget of a mid-latitude cyclone - A case study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, T.-C.; Alpert, J. C.; Schlatter, T. W.

1978-01-01

The magnitude of the divergent component of the wind is relatively small compared to that of the nondivergent component in large-scale atmospheric flows; nevertheless, it plays an important role in the case of explosive cyclogenesis examined here. The kinetic energy budget for the life cycle of an intense, developing cyclone over North America is calculated. The principal kinetic energy source is the net horizontal transport across the boundaries of the region enclosing the cyclone. By investigating the relative importance of the divergent and nondivergent wind components in the kinetic energy budget, it was found, as expected, that neglecting the divergent wind component in calculating the magnitude of the kinetic energy is of little consequence, but that the horizontal flux convergence and generation of kinetic energy depend crucially upon the divergent component. Modification of the divergent wind component can result in significant changes in the kinetic energy budget of the synoptic system.

Local Atmospheric Response to an Open-Ocean Polynya in a High-Resolution Climate Model

DOE PAGES

Weijer, Wilbert; Veneziani, Milena; Stössel, Achim; ...

2017-03-01

For this scientific paper, we study the atmospheric response to an open-ocean polynya in the Southern Ocean by analyzing the results from an atmospheric and oceanic synoptic-scale resolving Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation. While coarser-resolution versions of CESM generally do not produce open-ocean polynyas in the Southern Ocean, they do emerge and disappear on interannual timescales in the synoptic-scale simulation. This provides an ideal opportunity to study the polynya’s impact on the overlying and surrounding atmosphere. This has been pursued here by investigating the seasonal cycle of differences of surface and air-column variables between polynya and non-polynya years. Ourmore » results indicate significant local impacts on turbulent heat fluxes, precipitation, cloud characteristics, and radiative fluxes. In particular, we find that clouds over polynyas are optically thicker and higher than clouds over sea ice during non-polynya years. Although the lower albedo of polynyas significantly increases the net shortwave absorption, the enhanced cloud brightness tempers this increase by almost 50%. Also, in this model, enhanced longwave radiation emitted from the warmer surface of polynyas is balanced by stronger downwelling fluxes from the thicker cloud deck. Impacts are found to be sensitive to the synoptic wind direction. Strongest regional impacts are found when northeasterly winds cross the polynya and interact with katabatic winds. Finally, surface air pressure anomalies over the polynya are only found to be significant when cold, dry air masses strike over the polynya, i.e. in case of southerly winds.« less

Local Atmospheric Response to an Open-Ocean Polynya in a High-Resolution Climate Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weijer, Wilbert; Veneziani, Milena; Stössel, Achim

For this scientific paper, we study the atmospheric response to an open-ocean polynya in the Southern Ocean by analyzing the results from an atmospheric and oceanic synoptic-scale resolving Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation. While coarser-resolution versions of CESM generally do not produce open-ocean polynyas in the Southern Ocean, they do emerge and disappear on interannual timescales in the synoptic-scale simulation. This provides an ideal opportunity to study the polynya’s impact on the overlying and surrounding atmosphere. This has been pursued here by investigating the seasonal cycle of differences of surface and air-column variables between polynya and non-polynya years. Ourmore » results indicate significant local impacts on turbulent heat fluxes, precipitation, cloud characteristics, and radiative fluxes. In particular, we find that clouds over polynyas are optically thicker and higher than clouds over sea ice during non-polynya years. Although the lower albedo of polynyas significantly increases the net shortwave absorption, the enhanced cloud brightness tempers this increase by almost 50%. Also, in this model, enhanced longwave radiation emitted from the warmer surface of polynyas is balanced by stronger downwelling fluxes from the thicker cloud deck. Impacts are found to be sensitive to the synoptic wind direction. Strongest regional impacts are found when northeasterly winds cross the polynya and interact with katabatic winds. Finally, surface air pressure anomalies over the polynya are only found to be significant when cold, dry air masses strike over the polynya, i.e. in case of southerly winds.« less

Using heat to characterize streambed water flux variability in four stream reaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Essaid, H.I.; Zamora, C.M.; McCarthy, K.A.; Vogel, J.R.; Wilson, J.T.

2008-01-01

Estimates of streambed water flux are needed for the interpretation of streambed chemistry and reactions. Continuous temperature and head monitoring in stream reaches within four agricultural watersheds (Leary Weber Ditch, IN; Maple Creek, NE; DR2 Drain, WA; and Merced River, CA) allowed heat to be used as a tracer to study the temporal and spatial variability of fluxes through the streambed. Synoptic methods (seepage meter and differential discharge measurements) were compared with estimates obtained by using heat as a tracer. Water flux was estimated by modeling one-dimensional vertical flow of water and heat using the model VS2DH. Flux was influenced by physical heterogeneity of the stream channel and temporal variability in stream and ground-water levels. During most of the study period (April-December 2004), flux was upward through the streambeds. At the IN, NE, and CA sites, high-stage events resulted in rapid reversal of flow direction inducing short-term surface-water flow into the streambed. During late summer at the IN site, regional ground-water levels dropped, leading to surface-water loss to ground water that resulted in drying of the ditch. Synoptic measurements of flux generally supported the model flux estimates. Water flow through the streambed was roughly an order of magnitude larger in the humid basins (IN and NE) than in the arid basins (WA and CA). Downward flux, in response to sudden high streamflows, and seasonal variability in flux was most pronounced in the humid basins and in high conductivity zones in the streambed. Copyright ?? 2008 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Synoptic estimates of diffuse groundwater seepage to a spring-fed karst river at high spatial resolution using an automated radon measurement technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khadka, Mitra B.; Martin, Jonathan B.; Kurz, Marie J.

2017-01-01

Groundwater (GW) seepage can provide a major source of water, solutes, and contaminants to rivers, but identifying magnitudes, directions and locations of seepage is complicated by its diffuse and heterogeneous distributions. However, such information is necessary to develop programs and policies for protecting ecosystems and managing water resources. Here, we assess GW seepage to the Ichetucknee River, a spring-fed, low gradient, gaining stream in north-central Florida, through automated longitudinal surveys of radon (222Rn) activities at three different flow conditions. A 222Rn mass balance model, which integrates groundwater and spring water end member 222Rn activities and longitudinal 222Rn distributions in river water, shows that diffuse groundwater seepage represents about 16% of the total river baseflow, consistent with previous results obtained from ion (Ca2+, Cl-, SRP and Fe) mass balances and dye tracer methods. During high river stage, the contribution from seepage increases to 18-23% of the river flow. The spatial distribution of GW seepage is more variable in the upper 2.2-km reach of the river than the lower 2.8-km reach, regardless of river flow conditions. The upper reach has a narrower flood plain than the lower reach, which limits evapotranspiration and increases hydraulic gradients toward the river following storm events. Seepage in the lower reach is also limited by hydrologic damming by the receiving river, which inundates the floodplain during high flow conditions, and reduces the hydraulic head gradient. These results demonstrate the variable nature of seepage to a gaining river in both time and space and indicate that multiple synoptic analyses of GW seepage are required to assess seepage rates, determine time-averaged solute fluxes, and develop optimal management policies for riverine ecosystems.

Tornado activity at SRP during 1976

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pepper, D.W.; Schubert, J.F.

1978-07-01

Tracks of three small tornadoes were confirmed on the site of the Savannah River Plant during 1976. Only minor damage to buildings and vehicles was experienced. The tornadoes were rated F1 on the Fujita-Pearson scale. Synoptic weather conditions from the National Weather Service and from the SRP seven-tower data system were recorded.

WNDCOM: estimating surface winds in mountainous terrain

Treesearch

Bill C. Ryan

1983-01-01

WNDCOM is a mathematical model for estimating surface winds in mountainous terrain. By following the procedures described, the sheltering and diverting effect of terrain, the individual components of the windflow, and the surface wind in remote mountainous areas can be estimated. Components include the contribution from the synoptic scale pressure gradient, the sea...

Extinction coefficients from lidar observations in ice clouds compared to in-situ measurements from the Cloud Integrating Nephelometer during CRYSTAL-FACE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noel, Vincent; Winker, D. M.; Garrett, T. J.; McGill, M.

2005-01-01

This paper presents a comparison of volume extinction coefficients in tropical ice clouds retrieved from two instruments : the 532-nm Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL), and the in-situ probe Cloud Integrating Nephelometer (CIN). Both instruments were mounted on airborne platforms during the CRYSTAL-FACE campaign and took measurements in ice clouds up to 17km. Coincident observations from three cloud cases are compared : one synoptically-generated cirrus cloud of low optical depth, and two ice clouds located on top of convective systems. Emphasis is put on the vertical variability of the extinction coefficient. Results show small differences on small spatial scales (approx. 100m) in retrievals from both instruments. Lidar retrievals also show higher extinction coefficients in the synoptic cirrus case, while the opposite tendency is observed in convective cloud systems. These differences are generally variations around the average profile given by the CPL though, and general trends on larger spatial scales are usually well reproduced. A good agreement exists between the two instruments, with an average difference of less than 16% on optical depth retrievals.

A Transition in Atmospheric Moisture Transport as Observed in Stable Isotope Data From Mount Wrangell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, K.; Field, R.; Benson, C.

2007-12-01

Measurements made at the summit of Mount Wrangell in the Saint Elias Mountains during a storm in early August 1980 show a change in δ18O that approaches that normally observed to occur between winter and summer in the same region. We explore the synoptic-scale conditions associated with this storm with a view to understanding the processes responsible for this large change in δ18O. Using a variety of diagnostic techniques including satellite imagery, reanalysis data and back-trajectories, we show that during this event there was a dramatic transition in the atmospheric moisture transport to Mount Wrangell from a sub-tropical source region over the central Pacific to an extra-tropical source region over Siberia. This transition was mediated by the interaction of two synoptic-scale weather systems, the semi-permanent high situated over the northeastern Pacific Ocean and a transient extra-tropical cyclone that entered the Alaska region from the west. The implications that such events have on the reconstruction of climate signals contained in ice cores from the Saint Elias region will be discussed.

Cyclone-induced rapid creation of extreme Antarctic sea ice conditions

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhaomin; Turner, John; Sun, Bo; Li, Bingrui; Liu, Chengyan

2014-01-01

Two polar vessels, Akademik Shokalskiy and Xuelong, were trapped by thick sea ice in the Antarctic coastal region just to the west of 144°E and between 66.5°S and 67°S in late December 2013. This event demonstrated the rapid establishment of extreme Antarctic sea ice conditions on synoptic time scales. The event was associated with cyclones that developed at lower latitudes. Near the event site, cyclone-enhanced strong southeasterly katabatic winds drove large westward drifts of ice floes. In addition, the cyclones also gave southward ice drift. The arrival and grounding of Iceberg B9B in Commonwealth Bay in March 2011 led to the growth of fast ice around it, forming a northward protruding barrier. This barrier blocked the westward ice drift and hence aided sea ice consolidation on its eastern side. Similar cyclone-induced events have occurred at this site in the past after the grounding of Iceberg B9B. Future events may be predictable on synoptic time scales, if cyclone-induced strong wind events can be predicted. PMID:24937550

Tracking groundwater discharge to a large river using tracers and geophysics.

PubMed

Harrington, Glenn A; Gardner, W Payton; Munday, Tim J

2014-01-01

Few studies have investigated large reaches of rivers in which multiple sources of groundwater are responsible for maintaining baseflow. This paper builds upon previous work undertaken along the Fitzroy River, one of the largest perennial river systems in north-western Australia. Synoptic regional-scale sampling of both river water and groundwater for a suite of environmental tracers ((4) He, (87) Sr/(86) Sr, (222) Rn and major ions), and subsequent modeling of tracer behavior in the river, has enabled definition and quantification of groundwater input from at least three different sources. We show unambiguous evidence of both shallow "local" groundwater, possibly recharged to alluvial aquifers beneath the adjacent floodplain during recent high-flow events, and old "regional" groundwater introduced via artesian flow from deep confined aquifers. We also invoke hyporheic exchange and either bank return flow or parafluvial flow to account for background (222) Rn activities and anomalous chloride trends along river reaches where there is no evidence of the local or regional groundwater inputs. Vertical conductivity sections acquired through an airborne electromagnetic (AEM) survey provide insights to the architecture of the aquifers associated with these sources and general groundwater quality characteristics. These data indicate fresh groundwater from about 300 m below ground preferentially discharging to the river, at locations consistent with those inferred from tracer data. The results demonstrate how sampling rivers for multiple environmental tracers of different types-including stable and radioactive isotopes, dissolved gases and major ions-can significantly improve conceptualization of groundwater-surface water interaction processes, particularly when coupled with geophysical techniques in complex hydrogeological settings. © 2013, National Ground Water Association.

Influence of deep vortices on the ocean surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciani, Daniele; Carton, Xavier; Bashmachnikov, Igor; Chapron, Bertrand

2015-04-01

The oceanic motion at mesoscale (20-200 km) and submesoscale (0.5-20 km) is highly populated by vortices. These recirculating structures are more energetic than the mean flow, they trap water masses from their origination areas and advect them across the ocean, with consequent impact on the 3D distribution of heat and tracers. Mesoscale and submesoscale structures characterize the ocean dynamics both at the sea-surface and at intrathermocline depths (0-1500 m), and are presently investigated by means of model outputs and satellite (surface) data, the latest being the only way to get high resolution and synoptic observations at planetary scale (e.g., thermal-band observations, future altimetric observations given by the SWOT mission). The scientific question arising from this context is related to the role of the ocean surface for inferring informations on mesoscale and submesoscale vortices at depth. This study has also been motivated by the recent detection of subsurface eddies east of the Arabian Peninsula (PHYSINDIEN experiment - 2011). Using analytical models in the frame of the quasi-geostrophic (QG) theory, we could describe the theoretical altimetric signature of non-drifting and of drifting subsurface eddies. Numerical experiments, using both QG and primitive equations models, allowed us to investigate the surface expression of intrathermocline eddies interacting with baroclinic currents or evolving under planetary beta-effect. The eddies' characteristics (radius, depth, thickness, velocity) were varied in order to represent various oceanic examples (Meddies, Swoddies, Reddies, Peddies, Leddies). Idealized simulations with the ROMS model, confirming theoretical estimates, showed that drifting subsurface-intensified vortices can induce dipolar sea level anomalies, up to 3 cm. This result, compatibly with future SWOT measurement accuracies (about 2 cm), represents a contribution for systematic and synoptic detection of subsurface vortices.

Explicit simulation of a midlatitude Mesoscale Convective System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alexander, G.D.; Cotton, W.R.

1996-04-01

We have explicitly simulated the mesoscale convective system (MCS) observed on 23-24 June 1985 during PRE-STORM, the Preliminary Regional Experiment for the Stormscale Operational and Research and Meterology Program. Stensrud and Maddox (1988), Johnson and Bartels (1992), and Bernstein and Johnson (1994) are among the researchers who have investigated various aspects of this MCS event. We have performed this MCS simulation (and a similar one of a tropical MCS; Alexander and Cotton 1994) in the spirit of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Cloud Systems Study (GCSS), in which cloud-resolving models are used to assist in the formulation andmore » testing of cloud parameterization schemes for larger-scale models. In this paper, we describe (1) the nature of our 23-24 June MCS dimulation and (2) our efforts to date in using our explicit MCS simulations to assist in the development of a GCM parameterization for mesoscale flow branches. The paper is organized as follows. First, we discuss the synoptic situation surrounding the 23-24 June PRE-STORM MCS followed by a discussion of the model setup and results of our simulation. We then discuss the use of our MCS simulation. We then discuss the use of our MCS simulations in developing a GCM parameterization for mesoscale flow branches and summarize our results.« less

The role of the large scale convection electric field in erosion of the plasmasphere during moderate and strong storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thaller, S. A.; Wygant, J. R.; Cattell, C. A.; Breneman, A. W.; Bonnell, J. W.; Kletzing, C.; De Pascuale, S.; Kurth, W. S.; Hospodarsky, G. B.; Bounds, S. R.

2015-12-01

The Van Allen Probes offer the first opportunity to investigate the response of the plasmasphere to the enhancement and penetration of the large scale duskward convection electric field in different magnetic local time (MLT) sectors. Using electric field measurements and estimates of the cold plasma density from the Van Allen Probes' Electric Fields and Waves (EFW) instrument, we study erosion of the plasmasphere during moderate and strong geomagnetic storms. We present the electric field and density data both on an orbit by orbit basis and synoptically, showing the behavior of the convection electric field and plasmasphere over a period of months. The data indicate that the large scale duskward electric field penetrates deep (L shell < 3) into the inner magnetosphere on both the dusk and dawn sides, but that the plasmasphere response on the dusk and dawn sides differ. In particular, significant (~2 orders of magnitude) decreases in the cold plasma density occur on the dawn side within hours of the onset of enhanced duskward electric field. In contrast, on the dusk side, the plasmapause is located at higher L shell than it is on the dawn side. In some cases, in the post-noon sector, cold plasma density enhancements accompany duskward electric field enhancements for the first orbit after the electric field enchantment, consistent with a duskside, sunward flowing, drainage plume.

Evaluating the fidelity of CMIP5 models in producing large-scale meteorological patterns over the Northwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lintner, B. R.; Loikith, P. C.; Pike, M.; Aragon, C.

2017-12-01

Climate change information is increasingly required at impact-relevant scales. However, most state-of-the-art climate models are not of sufficiently high spatial resolution to resolve features explicitly at such scales. This challenge is particularly acute in regions of complex topography, such as the Pacific Northwest of the United States. To address this scale mismatch problem, we consider large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs), which can be resolved by climate models and associated with the occurrence of local scale climate and climate extremes. In prior work, using self-organizing maps (SOMs), we computed LSMPs over the northwestern United States (NWUS) from daily reanalysis circulation fields and further related these to the occurrence of observed extreme temperatures and precipitation: SOMs were used to group LSMPs into 12 nodes or clusters spanning the continuum of synoptic variability over the regions. Here this observational foundation is utilized as an evaluation target for a suite of global climate models from the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Evaluation is performed in two primary ways. First, daily model circulation fields are assigned to one of the 12 reanalysis nodes based on minimization of the mean square error. From this, a bulk model skill score is computed measuring the similarity between the model and reanalysis nodes. Next, SOMs are applied directly to the model output and compared to the nodes obtained from reanalysis. Results reveal that many of the models have LSMPs analogous to the reanalysis, suggesting that the models reasonably capture observed daily synoptic states.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kitada, Toshihiro; Okamura, Kiyoshi; Tanaka, Setsu

Japanese large cities, mostly located in coastal region, have rapidly expanded in the last three decades. People in the region now experience warmer and unpleasant thermal environment in summer season, supposedly because of the extensive urbanization. Especially, under fine weather with light synoptic-scale gradient wind, the highest temperature often appears in rather inland area. An explanation to this phenomenon is horizontal transport of heat by the sea breeze which is strongly heated during its passage over the coastal urban area. This study investigated how and how much urbanization in Nohbi Plain of central Japan influences local wind and temperature distributionmore » over the plain and its surrounding region, Nohbi Plain which faces to the Pacific Ocean and is surrounded by the Japanese Alps, and thus is in a typical topographic situation in Japan. For the study we performed numerical simulations using our meso-scale meteorological model which includes k-c model for turbulence. One of the major results obtained is to have clarified a hierarchy in natural and artificial topography of various scales on their contributions to formation of characteristic diurnal pattern of wind and temperature distributions in the plain area. The Japanese Alps, the largest topographic feature in central Japan and often called the roof of Japan, gave the most important influence on the wind, although the mountains are located quite far, around 200 km, from Nohbi Plain. The way for the influence of the high mountains was to warm air mass in upper layer but below 2 km in altitude, over the Nohbi Plain through heat transport due to a large scale circulation consisting of the {open_quotes}flows from plain to plateau in lower layer and plateau to plain in upper layer{close_quotes}. Urbanization in the coastal Nohbi Plain showed little effect on the flow pattern, but caused large temperature rises at surface level in the inland area because of horizontal heat transfer by the sea breeze.« less

Atmospheric energetics in regions of intense convective activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuelberg, H. E.

1977-01-01

Synoptic-scale budgets of kinetic and total potential energy are computed using 3- and 6-h data at nine times from NASA's fourth Atmospheric Variability Experiment (AVE IV). Two intense squall lines occurred during the period. Energy budgets for areas that enclose regions of intense convection are shown to have systematic changes that relate to the life cycles of the convection. Some of the synoptic-scale energy processes associated with the convection are found to be larger than those observed in the vicinity of mature cyclones. Volumes enclosing intense convection are found to have large values of cross-contour conversion of potential to kinetic energy and large horizontal export of kinetic energy. Although small net vertical transport of kinetic energy is observed, values at individual layers indicate large upward transport. Transfer of kinetic energy from grid to subgrid scales of motion occurs in the volumes. Latent heat release is large in the middle and upper troposphere and is thought to be the cause of the observed cyclic changes in the budget terms. Total potential energy is found to be imported horizontally in the lower half of the atmosphere, transported aloft, and then exported horizontally. Although local changes of kinetic energy and total potential energy are small, interaction between volumes enclosing convection with surrounding larger volumes is quite large.

Significant Findings: Seasonal Distributions of Global Ocean Chlorophyll and Nutrients With a Coupled Ocean General Circulation, Biogeochemical, and Radiative Model. 2; Comparisons With Satellite and In Situ Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.; Busalacchi, Antonio (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

A coupled ocean general circulation, biogeochemical, and radiative model was constructed to evaluate and understand the nature of seasonal variability of chlorophyll and nutrients in the global oceans. Biogeochemical processes in the model were determined from the influences of circulation and turbulence dynamics, irradiance availability, and the interactions among three functional phytoplankton groups (diatoms, chlorophytes, and picoplankton) and three nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, and silicate). Basin scale (>1000 km) model chlorophyll seasonal distributions were statistically positively correlated with CZCS chlorophyll in 10 of 12 major oceanographic regions, and with SeaWiFS in all 12. Notable disparities in magnitudes occurred, however, in the tropical Pacific, the spring/summer bloom in the Antarctic, autumn in the northern high latitudes, and during the southwest monsoon in the North Indian Ocean. Synoptic scale (100-1000 km) comparisons of satellite and in situ data exhibited broad agreement, although occasional departures were apparent. Model nitrate distributions agreed with in situ data, including seasonal dynamics, except for the equatorial Atlantic. The overall agreement of the model with satellite and in situ data sources indicated that the model dynamics offer a reasonably realistic simulation of phytoplankton and nutrient dynamics on basin and synoptic scales.

Atmospheric circulation patterns associated to the variability of River Ammer floods: evidence from observed and proxy data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimbu, N.; Czymzik, M.; Ionita, M.; Lohmann, G.; Brauer, A.

2015-09-01

The relationship between the frequency of River Ammer floods (southern Germany) and atmospheric circulation variability is investigated based on observational Ammer discharge data back to 1926 and a flood layer time series from varved sediments of the downstream Lake Ammersee for the pre-instrumental period back to 1766. A composite analysis reveals that, at synoptic time scales, observed River Ammer floods are associated with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean towards the Ammer region, a pronounced trough over Western Europe as well as enhanced potential vorticity at upper levels. We argue that this synoptic scale configuration can trigger heavy precipitation and floods in the Ammer region. Interannual to multidecadal increases in flood frequency as recorded in the instrumental discharge record are associated to a wave-train pattern extending from the North Atlantic to western Asia with a prominent negative center over western Europe. A similar atmospheric circulation pattern is associated to increases in flood layer frequency in the Lake Ammersee sediment record during the pre-instrumental period. We argue that the complete flood layer time-series from Lake Ammersee sediments covering the last 5500 years, contains information about atmospheric circulation variability on inter-annual to millennial time-scales.

Can preferred atmospheric circulation patterns over the North-Atlantic-Eurasian region be associated with arctic sea ice loss?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crasemann, Berit; Handorf, Dörthe; Jaiser, Ralf; Dethloff, Klaus; Nakamura, Tetsu; Ukita, Jinro; Yamazaki, Koji

2017-12-01

In the framework of atmospheric circulation regimes, we study whether the recent Arctic sea ice loss and Arctic Amplification are associated with changes in the frequency of occurrence of preferred atmospheric circulation patterns during the extended winter season from December to March. To determine regimes we applied a cluster analysis to sea-level pressure fields from reanalysis data and output from an atmospheric general circulation model. The specific set up of the two analyzed model simulations for low and high ice conditions allows for attributing differences between the simulations to the prescribed sea ice changes only. The reanalysis data revealed two circulation patterns that occur more frequently for low Arctic sea ice conditions: a Scandinavian blocking in December and January and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern in February and March. An analysis of related patterns of synoptic-scale activity and 2 m temperatures provides a synoptic interpretation of the corresponding large-scale regimes. The regimes that occur more frequently for low sea ice conditions are resembled reasonably well by the model simulations. Based on those results we conclude that the detected changes in the frequency of occurrence of large-scale circulation patterns can be associated with changes in Arctic sea ice conditions.

Global Climatology of the Coastal Low-Level Wind Jets using different Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, Daniela C. A.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Semedo, Alvaro; Cardoso, Rita M.

2016-04-01

Coastal Low-Level Jets (henceforth referred to as "coastal jets" or simply as CLLJ) are low-tropospheric mesoscale wind features, with wind speed maxima confined to the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL), typically bellow 1km. Coastal jets occur in the eastern flank of the semi-permanent subtropical mid-latitude high pressure systems, along equatorward eastern boundary currents, due to a large-scale synoptic forcing. The large-scale synoptic forcing behind CLLJ occurrences is a high pressure system over the ocean and a thermal low inland. This results in coastal parallel winds that are the consequence of the geostrophic adjustment. CLLJ are found along the California (California-Oregon) and the Canary (Iberia and Northeastern Africa) currents in the Northern Hemisphere, and along the Peru-Humboldt (Peru-Chile), Benguela (Namibia) and Western Australia (West Australia) currents in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Arabian Sea (Oman CLLJ), the interaction between the high pressure over the Indian Ocean in summer (Summer Indian Monsoon) and the Somali (also known as Findlater) Jet forces a coastal jet wind feature off the southeast coast of Oman. Coastal jets play an important role in the regional climates of the mid-latitude western continental regions. The decrease of the sea surface temperatures (SST) along the coast due to upwelling lowers the evaporation over the ocean and the coast parallel winds prevents the advection of marine air inshore. The feedback processes between the CLLJ and upwelling play a crucial role in the regional climate, namely, promoting aridity since the parallel flow prevents the intrusion of moisture inland, and increasing fish stocks through the transport of rich nutrient cold water from the bottom. In this study, the global coastal low-level wind jets are identified and characterized using an ensemble of three reanalysis, the ECMWF Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim), the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP CFSR). The CLLJ detection method proposed by Ranjha et al. (2013) was used for the reanalysis data. The criteria was applied sequentially to wind-speed and temperature vertical profiles to detect the location and frequency of CLLJ. The CLLJs spatio-temporal features and the seasonal synoptic configuration associated with the presence of coastal jets are studied for the period (1979-2008) using the ensemble. The present study will allow us to investigate thoroughly the global coastal low-level jets occurrence and main properties, following a new perspective and to assess the uncertainties in the representation of this jets by the available reanalysis. ublication supported by project FCT UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz.

The use of normalized climatological anomalies to rank synoptic-scale events and their relation to Weather Types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, A. M.; Lorenzo, M. N.; Gimeno, L.; Nieto, R.; Añel, J. A.

2009-09-01

Several methods have been developed to rank meteorological events in terms of severity, social impact or economic impacts. These classifications are not always objective since they depend of several factors, for instance, the observation network is biased towards the densely populated urban areas against rural or oceanic areas. It is also very important to note that not all rare synoptic-scale meteorological events attract significant media attention. In this work we use a comprehensive method of classifying synoptic-scale events adapted from Hart and Grumm, 2001, to the European region (30N-60N, 30W-15E). The main motivation behind this method is that the more unusual the event (a cold outbreak, a heat wave, or a flood), for a given region, the higher ranked it must be. To do so, we use four basic meteorological variables (Height, Temperature, Wind and Specific Humidity) from NCEP reanalysis dataset over the range of 1000hPa to 200hPa at a daily basis from 1948 to 2004. The climatology used embraces the 1961-1990 period. For each variable, the analysis of raking climatological anomalies was computed taking into account the daily normalized departure from climatology at different levels. For each day (from 1948 to 2004) we have four anomaly measures, one for each variable, and another, a combined where the anomaly (total anomaly) is the average of the anomaly of the four variables. Results will be analyzed on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis. Seasonal trends and variability will also be shown. In addition, and given the extent of the database, the expected return periods associated with the anomalies are revealed. Moreover, we also use an automated version of the Lamb weather type (WT) classification scheme (Jones et al, 1993) adapted for the Galicia area (Northwestern corner of the Iberian Peninsula) by Lorenzo et al (2008) in order to compute the daily local circulation regimes in this area. By combining the corresponding daily WT with the five anomaly measures we can evaluate if there is any preferable WT responsible for high or low values of anomalies. Hart, R.E and R.H. Grumm (2001) Using normalized climatological anomalies to rank synoptic-scale events objectivily. Monthly Weather Review, 129, 2426-2442. Jones, P. D., M. Hulme, K. R. Briffa (1993) A comparison of Lamb circulation types with anobjective classification scheme. International Journal of Climatology, 13: 655- 663. Lorenzo M.N., J.J. Taboada and L.Gimeno (2008). Links between circulation weather types and teleconnection patterns and their influence on precipitation patterns in Galicia (NW Spain). International Journal of Climatology 28(11): 1493:1505 DOI: 10.1002/joc.1646.

A Regional-Scale Evaluation on Environmental Stability Conditions for Convective Rain under Climate Change from Super-High-Resolution GCM Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takemi, T.; Nomura, S.; Oku, Y.; Ishikawa, H.

2011-12-01

Understanding and forecasting of convective rain due to intense thunderstorms, which develop under conditions both with and without significant synoptic-scale and/or mesoscale forcings, are critical in dealing with disaster prevention/mitigation and developing urban planning appropriate for disaster management. Thunderstorms rapidly develop even during the daytimes of fair weather conditions without any external forcings, and sometimes become strong enough to induce local-scale meteorological disasters such as torrential rain, flush flooding, high winds, and tornadoes/gusts. With the growing interests in climate change, future changes in the behavior of such convectively generated extreme events have gained scientific and societal interests. This study conducted the regional-scale evaluations on the environmental stability conditions for convective rain that develops under synoptically undisturbed, summertime conditions by using the outputs of super-high-resolution AGCM simulations, at a 20-km resolution, for the present, the near-future, and the future climates under global warming with IPCC A1B emission scenario. The GCM, MRI-AGCM3.2S, was developed by Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency under the KAKUSHIN program funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan. The climate simulation outputs that were used in this study corresponded to three 25-year periods: 1980-2004 for the present climate; 2020-2044 for the near-future climate; and 2075-2099 for the future climate. The Kanto Plain that includes the Tokyo metropolitan area was chosen as the study area, since the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the largest metropolises in the world and is vulnerable to extreme weather events. Therefore, one of the purposes of this study was to examine how regional-scale evaluations are performed from the super-high-resolution GCM outputs. After verifying the usefulness of the GCM present-climate outputs with observations and operational mesoscale analyses, we examined, as another purpose of this study, the future changes in the environmental stability for convective rain. To diagnose the environmental conditions, some of the commonly used stability parameters and indices were examined. In the future climates, temperature lapse rate decreased in the lower troposphere, while water vapor mixing ratio increased throughout the deep troposphere. The changes in the temperature and moisture profiles resulted in the increase in both precipitable water vapor and convective available potential energy. These projected changes will be enhanced with the future period. Furthermore, the statistical analyses for the differences of the stability parameters between no-rain and rain days under the synoptically undisturbed condition in each simulated climate period indicated that the environmental conditions in terms of the stability parameters that distinguish no-rain and rain events are basically unchanged between the present and the future climates. This result suggests that the environmental characteristics favorable for afternoon rain events in the synoptically undisturbed environments will not change under global warming.

Impact of a warm core eddy on near-surface wind at Brazil-Malvinas Confluence region in high resolution simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hackerott, J. A.; Mesquita, M. D. S.; Camargo, R. D.; Pezzi, L. P.

2014-12-01

Several studies show that near surface winds acquire anticyclonic (cyclonic) vorticity and accelerate (decelerate) when flow in the same direction as positive (negative) orientation of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) gradient. Many of them were made over different oceanic thermal fronts in the world analyzing contrasts in SST gradients. However, still remains much uncertainty about how strong is this wind modulation, particularly on areas in need of studies and in-situ data, such as the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence Region (BMC) where intense SST gradients are found. This study brings results of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations, configured with nested grids, where it is compared the influence of distinct synoptic patterns observed at BMC where three different SST patterns are imposed to WRF. These patterns are: (1) with a typical smoothed SST field, named as Control; (2) Small Eddy, which is the same as Control but adding an eddy of 1° radius and a +2°C amplitude; and (3) Intense Eddy, which is also the same as Control, but where an eddy of 1° radius and +4°C amplitude is added. The artificial imposed eddy is analogous to the SST patterns observed at BMC, with different intensities. The simulations were integrated for 76 hours using initial and lateral boundary conditions from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model with 0.5° resolution. The results showed that the wind at 10m height is influenced by the diurnal cycle of turbulence in the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL) modified by variations in SST. The wind magnitude changes up to 1m.s-1 over a 4/50°C.km-1 SST gradient and 0.6m.s-1 over a 2/50°C.km-1 SST gradient. This effect generates meso-scale disturbances that propagate to larger scales leading to disturbances in remote areas. Thus, the preliminary analyses are suggesting that there is an interaction between the meso and synoptic scale playing a role. Mechanisms such this one might not be captured by atmospheric global models used in low spatial resolution. Often, that is the case seen on operational models.

Development and implementation of a synoptic MRI report for preoperative staging of rectal cancer on a population-based level.

PubMed

Kennedy, Erin D; Milot, Laurent; Fruitman, Mark; Al-Sukhni, Eisar; Heine, Gabrielle; Schmocker, Selina; Brown, Gina; McLeod, Robin S

2014-06-01

Colorectal cancer physician champions across the province of Ontario, Canada, reported significant concern about appropriate selection of patients for preoperative chemoradiotherapy because of perceived variation in the completeness and consistency of MRI reports. The purpose of this work was to develop, pilot test, and implement a synoptic MRI report for preoperative staging of rectal cancer. This was an integrated knowledge translation project. This study was conducted in Ontario, Canada. Surgeons, radiologists, radiation oncologists, medical oncologists, and pathologists treating patients with rectal cancer were included in this study. A multifaceted knowledge translation strategy was used to develop, pilot test, and implement a synoptic MRI report. This strategy included physician champions, audit and feedback, assessment of barriers, and tailoring to the local context. A radiology webinar was conducted to pilot test the synoptic MRI report. Seventy-three (66%) of 111 Ontario radiologists participated in the radiology webinar and evaluated the synoptic MRI report. A total of 78% and 90% radiologists expressed that the synoptic MRI report was easy to use and included all of the appropriate items; 82% noted that the synoptic MRI report improved the overall quality of their information, and 83% indicated they would consider using this report in their clinical practice. An MRI report audit after implementation of the synoptic MRI report showed a 39% improvement in the completeness of MRI reports and a 37% uptake of the synoptic MRI report format across the province. Radiologists evaluating the synoptic MRI report and participating in the radiology webinar may not be representative of gastroenterologic radiologists in other geographic jurisdictions. The evaluation of completeness and uptake of the synoptic MRI reports is limited because of unmeasured differences that may occur before and after the MRI. A synoptic MRI report for preoperative staging of rectal cancer was successfully developed and pilot tested in the province of Ontario, Canada.

Special section introduction on MicroMars to MegaMars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bridges, Nathan T.; Dundas, Colin M.; Edgar, Lauren

2016-01-01

The study of Earth's surface and atmosphere evolved from local investigations to the incorporation of remote sensing on a global scale. The study of Mars has followed the opposite progression, beginning with telescopic observations, followed by flyby and orbital missions, landers, and finally rover missions in the last ∼20 years. This varied fleet of spacecraft (seven of which are currently operating as of this writing) provides a rich variety of datasets at spatial scales ranging from microscopic images to synoptic orbital remote sensing.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patnaik, P. C.

The SIGMET mesoscale meteorology simulation code represents an extension, in terms of physical modelling detail and numerical approach, of the work of Anthes (1972) and Anthes and Warner (1974). The code utilizes a finite difference technique to solve the so-called primitive equations which describe transient flow in the atmosphere. The SIGMET modelling contains all of the physics required to simulate the time dependent meteorology of a region with description of both the planetary boundary layer and upper level flow as they are affected by synoptic forcing and complex terrain. The mathematical formulation of the SIGMET model and the various physicalmore » effects incorporated into it are summarized.« less

Airline flight planning - The weather connection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinberg, R.

1981-01-01

The history of airline flight planning is briefly reviewed. Over half a century ago, when scheduled airline services began, weather data were almost nonexistent. By the early 1950's a reliable synoptic network provided upper air reports. The next 15 years saw a rapid growth in commercial aviation, and airlines introduced computer techniques to flight planning. The 1970's saw the development of weather satellites. The current state of flight planning activities is analyzed. It is found that accurate flight planning will require meteorological information on a finer scale than can be provided by a synoptic forecast. Opportunities for a new approach are examined, giving attention to the available options, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model, limited area fine mesh models, man-computer interactive display systems, the use of interactive techniques with the present upper air data base, and the implementation of interactive techniques.

A contrast between nocturnal flow regimes: Observations and modeling simulations of katabatic intrusions in the Laramie Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juliano, Timothy W.

Katabatic winds commonly occur in mountainous regions under statically stable conditions when a sufficient deficit exists in the net radiation budget. Observations of these stable boundary layer (SBL) downslope flows have extended back to the 1930s. Their interactions with other SBL processes, including cold air pools (CAPs) and mountain waves, are quite complex, however, and have only more recently been deeply investigated. The University of Wyoming (UW) wind tower (WT) and flux tower (WT), situated in the Laramie Valley, were utilized in examining a dataset spanning from 14 December 2011 to 12 September 2013. A set of criteria were developed to determine katabatic intrusion events, and establish a climatology of these events, at the WT. The 21-22 December 2012 nighttime period was then studied in detail using data from the aforementioned towers in addition to weather stations throughout the Laramie Valley and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Both observations and modeling results indicated a competition between two strongly contrasting flow regimes: synoptic and katabatic. The synoptic regime was characterized by strong, southwesterly winds, warm temperatures, and turbulent flow, while the katabatic regime featured weaker, southeasterly winds, cooler temperatures, and intermittently turbulent flow. Sonic and propeller anemometers on the WT elucidated the chaotic transition between the regimes. At the WT, it was found that between regimes the wind speed decreased by up to 60%, wind direction often shifted over 120°, and potential temperature usually decreased more than 2°C. The katabatic wind depth was postulated to be variable in time and space, with its head sloping towards the trailing CAP. Topographically generated mountain waves and local terrain forcing are suspected to play an integral role in the development and evolution of the katabatic wind in the Laramie Valley. Results from this research yield promising insight into the intricate relationships between various SBL processes in complex terrain.

A continuous measure of gross primary production for the conterminous United States derived from MODIS and AmeriFlux data

Treesearch

Jingfeng Xiao; Qianlai Zhuang; Beverly E. Law; Jiquan Chen; Dennis D. Baldocchi; David R. Cook; Ram Oren; Andrew D. Richardson; Sonia Wharton; Siyan Ma; Tomothy A. Martin; Shashi B. Verma; Andrew E. Suyker; Russel L. Scott; Russel K. Monson; Marcy Litvak; David Y. Hollinger; Ge Sun; Kenneth J. Davis; Paul V. Bolstad; Sean P. Burns; Peter S. Curtis; BErt G. Drake; Matthias Falk; MArc L. Fischer; David R. Foster; Lianhong Gu; Julian L. Hadley; Gabriel G. Katul; Roser Matamala; Steve McNulty; Tilden P. Meyers; J. William Munger; Asko Noormets; Walter C. Oechel; Kyaw Tha U Paw; Hans Peter Schmid; Gregory Starr; Margaret S. Torn; Steven C. Wofsy

2010-01-01

The quantification of carbon fluxes between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere is of scientific importance and also relevant to climate-policy making. Eddy covariance flux towers provide continuous measurements of ecosystem-level exchange of carbon dioxide spanning diurnal, synoptic, seasonal, and interannual time scales....

Fusion of Remote Sensing and Non-Authoritative Data for Flood Disaster and Transportation Infrastructure Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schnebele, Emily K.

2013-01-01

Flooding is the most frequently occurring natural hazard on Earth; with catastrophic, large scale floods causing immense damage to people, property, and the environment. Over the past 20 years, remote sensing has become the standard technique for flood identification because of its ability to offer synoptic coverage. Unfortunately, remote sensing…

Increasing potential predictability of Indian Summer monsoon active and break spells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mani, N. J.; Goswami, B.

2009-12-01

An understanding of the limit on potential predictability is crucial for developing appropriate tools for extended range prediction of active/break spells of Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The global low frequency changes in climate modulate the annual cycle of the ISM and can influence the intrinsic predictability limit of the ISM intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs). Using 104 year (1901-2004) long daily rainfall data, the change in potential predictability of active and break spells are estimated by an empirical method. Using an ISO index based on 10-90 day filtered precipitation, Goswami and Xavier (2003)showed that the monsoon breaks are intrinsically more predictable (20-25 days) than the active conditions (10-15 days. In the present study, employing the same method in 15 year sliding windows, we found that the potential predictability of both active and break spells have undergone a rapid increase during the recent three decades. The potential predictability of active spells has shown an increase from 1 week to 2 weeks while that for break spells increased from 2 weeks to 3 weeks. This result is interesting and intriguing in the backdrop of recent finding that the potential predictability of monsoon weather has decreased substantially over the same period compared to earlier decades due to increased potential instability of the atmosphere. The possible role of internal dynamics and external forcing in producing this change has been explored. The variance among peak active/break conditions shows a steady decrease over the years, indicating a lesser event to event variability in the magnitude of ISO peak phases in recent years. The ISO predictability may be closely linked to the error energy cascading from the synoptic scales and the interaction between these scales. Computation of nonlinear kinetic energy exchange between synoptic and ISO scales in frequency domain, also support the notion of ineffectual influence of synoptic scale errors on the ISO scale.Ref: Goswami, B N and P K Xavier, 2003,GRL. 30(18), 1966, doi:10.1029/2003GL017,810, 2003. Fig 1. Change in potential predictability of rainfall ISO through a 15 year sliding window. a) potential predictability for evolution from active to break b) potential predictability for evolution from break to active.

The effects of implementing synoptic pathology reporting in cancer diagnosis: a systematic review.

PubMed

Sluijter, Caro E; van Lonkhuijzen, Luc R C W; van Slooten, Henk-Jan; Nagtegaal, Iris D; Overbeek, Lucy I H

2016-06-01

Pathology reporting is evolving from a traditional narrative report to a more structured synoptic report. Narrative reporting can cause misinterpretation due to lack of information and structure. In this systematic review, we evaluate the impact of synoptic reporting on completeness of pathology reports and quality of pathology evaluation for solid tumours. Pubmed, Embase and Cochrane databases were systematically searched to identify studies describing the effect of synoptic reporting implementation on completeness of reporting and quality of pathology evaluation of solid malignant tumours. Thirty-three studies met the inclusion criteria. All studies, except one, reported an increased overall completeness of pathology reports after introduction of synoptic reporting (SR). Most frequently studied cancers were breast (n = 9) and colorectal cancer (n = 16). For breast cancer, narrative reports adequately described 'tumour type' and 'nodal status'. Synoptic reporting resulted in improved description of 'resection margins', 'DCIS size', 'location' and 'presence of calcifications'. For colorectal cancer, narrative reports adequately reported 'tumour type', 'invasion depth', 'lymph node counts' and 'nodal status'. Synoptic reporting resulted in increased reporting of 'circumferential margin', 'resection margin', 'perineural invasion' and 'lymphovascular invasion'. In addition, increased numbers of reported lymph nodes were found in synoptic reports. Narrative reports of other cancer types described the traditional parameters adequately, whereas for 'resection margins' and '(lympho)vascular/perineural invasion', implementation of synoptic reporting was necessary. Synoptic reporting results in improved reporting of clinical relevant data. Demonstration of clinical impact of this improved method of pathology reporting is required for successful introduction and implementation in daily pathology practice.

Meteorology of the Southern Global Plume: African and South American Fires Pollute the South Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guo, Z.; Chatfield, R. B.

1999-01-01

An immense global plume of CO meanders widely around the world in the Southern Hemisphere. It arises over Southern America and Africa and flows eastward. The first emissions are in tropical Brazil, and the plume circulates around the world to South America again. The plume was largely unexpected until there were aircraft studies made in NASA's Pacific Exploratory Mission - Tropics (Part A). This paper describes the meteorology of the Global Plume, as our simulation, with a synoptic model adapted to global transport, reveals it with a tracer-CO simulation. The observations and their simulation require a particular set of conditions of pollutant accumulation, cumulonimbus venting with required strengths at a narrow range of altitude. Additionally, a particular subtropical conduction region, over the Indian Ocean, Australia, and the westeRNmost South Pacific, relatively free of storms, appears to be a key part of the mechanism. These conclusions are the results of a synoptic reconstruction of the PEMT-A period, September- October, 1996.

Signatures of coronal rain observed in the chromosphere of an Active Region Filament

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pillet, V. M.; McAteer, J.

2016-12-01

Using He 10830A spectropolarimetric data from the Tenerife Infrared Polarimeter (TIP) in a rather compact active region neutral line, we observe a persistent chromospheric downflow on both sides of the neutral line that we interpret as the signature of rain from the Corona. The photospheric Si I line also present in this spectral region allows studying the continuation of the chromospheric downflow into the deeper areas dominated by granulation. Full reconstruction of the photospheric and chromospheric vector magnetic field showed that the active region filament was the central, axial, part of a magnetic flux rope. These observations demonstrate the potential of this spectral region to monitor the magnetic field and plasma motions in solar filaments. NMSU and NSO are teaming to start a synoptic program at the DST (Sac Peak) that uses this spectral region to track the evolution of magnetic fields and flows in solar filaments. We briefly present the characteristics of the synoptic program.

An assessment of the Jenkinson and Collison synoptic classification to a continental mid-latitude location

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spellman, Greg

2017-05-01

A weather-type catalogue based on the Jenkinson and Collison method was developed for an area in south-west Russia for the period 1961-2010. Gridded sea level pressure data was obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. The resulting catalogue was analysed for frequency of individual types and groups of weather types to characterise long-term atmospheric circulation in this region. Overall, the most frequent type is anticyclonic (A) (23.3 %) followed by cyclonic (C) (11.9 %); however, there are some key seasonal patterns with westerly circulation being significantly more common in winter than summer. The utility of this synoptic classification is evaluated by modelling daily rainfall amounts. A low level of error is found using a simple model based on the prevailing weather type. Finally, characteristics of the circulation classification are compared to those for the original JC British Isles catalogue and a much more equal distribution of flow types is seen in the former classification.

Meteorological conditions in a thinner Arctic sea ice regime from winter to summer during the Norwegian Young Sea Ice expedition (N-ICE2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Lana; Hudson, Stephen R.; Walden, Von P.; Graham, Robert M.; Granskog, Mats A.

2017-07-01

Atmospheric measurements were made over Arctic sea ice north of Svalbard from winter to early summer (January-June) 2015 during the Norwegian Young Sea Ice (N-ICE2015) expedition. These measurements, which are available publicly, represent a comprehensive meteorological data set covering the seasonal transition in the Arctic Basin over the new, thinner sea ice regime. Winter was characterized by a succession of storms that produced short-lived (less than 48 h) temperature increases of 20 to 30 K at the surface. These storms were driven by the hemispheric scale circulation pattern with a large meridional component of the polar jet stream steering North Atlantic storms into the high Arctic. Nonstorm periods during winter were characterized by strong surface temperature inversions due to strong radiative cooling ("radiatively clear state"). The strength and depth of these inversions were similar to those during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) campaign. In contrast, atmospheric profiles during the "opaquely cloudy state" were different to those from SHEBA due to differences in the synoptic conditions and location within the ice pack. Storm events observed during spring/summer were the result of synoptic systems located in the Barents Sea and the Arctic Basin rather than passing directly over N-ICE2015. These synoptic systems were driven by a large-scale circulation pattern typical of recent years, with an Arctic Dipole pattern developing during June. Surface temperatures became near-constant 0°C on 1 June marking the beginning of summer. Atmospheric profiles during the spring and early summer show persistent lifted temperature and moisture inversions that are indicative of clouds and cloud processes.

The Role of Jet Adjustment Processes in Subtropical Dust Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokharel, Ashok Kumar; Kaplan, Michael L.; Fiedler, Stephanie

2017-11-01

Meso-α/β/γ scale atmospheric processes of jet dynamics responsible for generating Harmattan, Saudi Arabian, and Bodélé Depression dust storms are analyzed with observations and high-resolution modeling. The analysis of the role of jet adjustment processes in each dust storm shows similarities as follows: (1) the presence of a well-organized baroclinic synoptic scale system, (2) cross mountain flows that produced a leeside inversion layer prior to the large-scale dust storm, (3) the presence of thermal wind imbalance in the exit region of the midtropospheric jet streak in the lee of the respective mountains shortly after the time of the inversion formation, (4) dust storm formation accompanied by large magnitude ageostrophic isallobaric low-level winds as part of the meso-β scale adjustment process, (5) substantial low-level turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), and (6) emission and uplift of mineral dust in the lee of nearby mountains. The thermally forced meso-γ scale adjustment processes, which occurred in the canyons/small valleys, may have been the cause of numerous observed dust streaks leading to the entry of the dust into the atmosphere due to the presence of significant vertical motion and TKE generation. This study points to the importance of meso-β to meso-γ scale adjustment processes at low atmospheric levels due to an imbalance within the exit region of an upper level jet streak for the formation of severe dust storms. The low level TKE, which is one of the prerequisites to deflate the dust from the surface, cannot be detected with the low resolution data sets; so our results show that a high spatial resolution is required for better representing TKE as a proxy for dust emission.

Are meteorological conditions favoring hail precipitation change in Southern Europe? Analysis of the period 1948-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, J. L.; Merino, A.; Melcón, P.; García-Ortega, E.; Fernández-González, S.; Berthet, C.; Dessens, J.

2017-12-01

In the context of a warming climate, one of the variables currently under investigation is related to the detection of possible changes in hail precipitation. In this work, we analyze hail frequencies in one of the most affected areas by this phenomenon in Europe, southern France. Here, an extensive hail detection network has been in operation since 1988. In general, the detection of hailfall is very uncertain. To overcome the constraints of scarcity and poor standardization of hail detection and monitoring systems, some relationships between hailstorm occurrence and synoptic, mesoscale or thermodynamic atmospheric characteristics have been proposed in different areas. Therefore, we analyzed meteorological fields at synoptic scale that are related to the formation of hailstorms in the study area, i.e., geopotential height at 500 hPa, sea level pressure, and lapse-rate between 850 and 500 hPa. These fields describe the state of the atmosphere at low and mid levels, and facilitate the evaluation of thermal and dynamic instability. Using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen estimator, we examined trends in the three fields during the period 1948-2015 and their spatial patterns, revealing an evolution toward synoptic environments that favor hail precipitation in the Mediterranean region.

Synoptic controls on precipitation pathways and snow delivery to high-accumulation ice core sites in the Ross Sea region, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinclair, K. E.; Bertler, N. A. N.; Trompetter, W. J.

2010-11-01

Dominant storm tracks to two ice core sites on the western margin of the Ross Sea, Antarctica (Skinner Saddle (SKS) and Evans Piedmont Glacier), are investigated to establish key synoptic controls on snow accumulation. This is critical in terms of understanding the seasonality, source regions, and transport pathways of precipitation delivered to these sites. In situ snow depth and meteorological observations are used to identify major accumulation events in 2007-2008, which differ considerably between sites in terms of their magnitude and seasonal distribution. While snowfall at Evans Piedmont Glacier occurs almost exclusively during summer and spring, Skinner Saddle receives precipitation year round with a lull during the months of April and May. Cluster analysis of daily back trajectories reveals that the highest-accumulation days at both sites result from fast-moving air masses, associated with synoptic-scale low-pressure systems. There is evidence that short-duration pulses of snowfall at SKS also originate from mesocyclone development over the Ross Ice Shelf and local moisture sources. Changes in the frequency and seasonal distribution of these mechanisms of precipitation delivery will have a marked impact on annual accumulation over time and will therefore need careful consideration during the interpretation of stable isotope and geochemical records from these ice cores.

Regional climates in the GISS general circulation model: Surface air temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hewitson, Bruce

1994-01-01

One of the more viable research techniques into global climate change for the purpose of understanding the consequent environmental impacts is based on the use of general circulation models (GCMs). However, GCMs are currently unable to reliably predict the regional climate change resulting from global warming, and it is at the regional scale that predictions are required for understanding human and environmental responses. Regional climates in the extratropics are in large part governed by the synoptic-scale circulation and the feasibility of using this interscale relationship is explored to provide a way of moving to grid cell and sub-grid cell scales in the model. The relationships between the daily circulation systems and surface air temperature for points across the continental United States are first developed in a quantitative form using a multivariate index based on principal components analysis (PCA) of the surface circulation. These relationships are then validated by predicting daily temperature using observed circulation and comparing the predicted values with the observed temperatures. The relationships predict surface temperature accurately over the major portion of the country in winter, and for half the country in summer. These relationships are then applied to the surface synoptic circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM control run, and a set of surface grid cell temperatures are generated. These temperatures, based on the larger-scale validated circulation, may now be used with greater confidence at the regional scale. The generated temperatures are compared to those of the model and show that the model has regional errors of up to 10 C in individual grid cells.

Modelling wildfire activity in Iberia with different Atmospheric Circulation WTs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, P. M.; Trigo, R.; Pereira, M. G.; Rasilla, D.; Gouveia, C.

2012-04-01

This work focuses on the spatial and temporal variability of burnt area (BA) for the entire Iberian Peninsula (IP) and on the construction of statistical models to reproduce the inter-annual variability, based on Weather Types Classification (WTC). A common BA dataset was assembled for the first time for the entire Iberian Peninsula, by merging BA records for the 66 administrative regions of Portugal and Spain. A normalization procedure was then applied to the various size regions before performing a k-means cluster analysis to identify large areas characterized by similar fire regimes. The most compelling results were obtained for 4 clusters (Northwestern, Northern, Southwestern and Eastern) whose spatial patterns and seasonal fire regimes are shown to be related with constraining factors such as topography, vegetation cover and climate conditions. The response of fire burnt surface at monthly time scales to both long-term climatic pre-conditions and short-term synoptic forcing was assessed through correlation and regression analysis using: (i) temperature and precipitation from 2 to 7 months in advance to fire peak season; (ii) synoptic weather patterns derived from 11 distinct classifications derived under the COSTaction-733. Different responses were obtained for each of the considered regions: (i) a relevant link between BA and short-term synoptic forcing (represented by monthly frequencies of WTC) was identified for all clusters; (ii) long-term climatic preconditioning was relevant for all but one cluster (Northern). Taking into account these links, we developed stepwise regression models with the aim of reproducing the observed BA series (i.e. in hindcast mode). These models were based on the best climatic and synoptic circulation predictors identified previously. All models were cross-validated and their performance varies between clusters, though models exclusively based on WTCs tend to better reproduce annual BA time series than those only based on pre-conditioning climatic information. Nevertheless, the best results are attained when both synoptic and climatic predictors are used simultaneously as predictors, in particular for the two western clusters, where correlation coefficient values are higher than 0.7. Finally, we have used WTC composite maps to characterize the typical synoptic configurations that favor high values of BA. These patterns correspond to dry and warm fluxes, associated with anticyclonic regimes, which foster fire ignition (Pereira et al., 2005). Pereira, M.G., Trigo, R.M., DaCamara, C.C., Pereira, J.M.C., Leite, S.M., 2005: "Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal". Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 129, 11-25. COST733, 2011: "COST 733 Wiki - Harmonisation and Applications of Weather Type Classifications for European regions or COST733 spatial domains for Europe". Available at http://geo21.geo.uni-augsburg.de/cost733wiki/Cost733_Wiki_Main [accessed 1 September 2011].

Circulation, mixing, and transport in nearshore Lake Erie in the vicinity of Villa Angela Beach and Euclid Creek, Cleveland, Ohio, September 11-12, 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jackson, P. Ryan

2013-01-01

Villa Angela Beach, on the Lake Erie lakeshore near Cleveland, Ohio, is adjacent to the mouth of Euclid Creek, a small, flashy stream draining approximately 23 square miles and susceptible to periodic contamination from combined sewer overflows (CSOs) (97 and 163 CSO events in 2010 and 2011, respectively). Concerns over high concentrations of Escherichia coli (E. coli) in water samples taken along this beach and frequent beach closures led to the collection of synoptic data in the nearshore area in an attempt to gain insights into mixing processes, circulation, and the potential for transport of bacteria and other CSO-related pollutants from various sources in Euclid Creek and along the lakefront. An integrated synoptic survey was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey on September 11–12, 2012, during low-flow conditions on Euclid Creek, which followed rain-induced high flows in the creek on September 8–9, 2012. Data-collection methods included deployment of an autonomous underwater vehicle and use of a manned boat equipped with an acoustic Doppler current profiler. Spatial distributions of water-quality measures and nearshore currents indicated that the mixing zone encompassing the mouth of Euclid Creek and Villa Angela Beach is dynamic and highly variable in extent, but can exhibit a large zone of recirculation that can, at times, be decoupled from local wind forcing. Observed circulation patterns during September 2012 indicated that pollutants from CSOs in Euclid Creek and water discharged from three shoreline CSO points within 2,000 feet of the beach could be trapped along Villa Angela Beach by interaction of nearshore currents and shoreline structures. In spite of observed coastal downwelling, denser water from Euclid Creek is shown to mix to the surface via offshore turbulent structures that span the full depth of flow. While the southwesterly longshore currents driving the recirculation pattern along the beach front were observed during the 2011–12 synoptic surveys, longshore currents with a southwesterly component capable of establishing the recirculation only occurred about 30 percent of the time from June 7 to October 6, 2012, based on continuous velocity data collected near Villa Angela Beach.

Variation objective analyses for cyclone studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Achtemeier, G. L.; Kidder, S. Q.; Ochs, H. T.

1985-01-01

The objectives were to: (1) develop an objective analysis technique that will maximize the information content of data available from diverse sources, with particular emphasis on the incorporation of observations from satellites with those from more traditional immersion techniques; and (2) to develop a diagnosis of the state of the synoptic scale atmosphere on a much finer scale over a much broader region than is presently possible to permit studies of the interactions and energy transfers between global, synoptic and regional scale atmospheric processes. The variational objective analysis model consists of the two horizontal momentum equations, the hydrostatic equation, and the integrated continuity equation for a dry hydrostatic atmosphere. Preliminary tests of the model with the SESMAE I data set are underway for 12 GMT 10 April 1979. At this stage of purpose of the analysis is not the diagnosis of atmospheric structures but rather the validation of the model. Model runs for rawinsonde data and with the precision modulus weights set to force most of the adjustment of the wind field to the mass field have produced 90 to 95 percent reductions in the imbalance of the initial data after only 4-cycles through the Euler-Lagrange equations. Sensitivity tests for linear stability of the 11 Euler-Lagrange equations that make up the VASP Model 1 indicate that there will be a lower limit to the scales of motion that can be resolved by this method. Linear stability criteria are violated where there is large horizontal wind shear near the upper tropospheric jet.

The role of synoptic weather variability in Greenland ice sheet dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, J. M.; Radic, V.

2017-12-01

Much of the large uncertainty in predictions of future global sea level rise is due to our limited understanding of Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) motion and its interactions with climate. Over the next century, climate models predict that the GrIS will experience not only gradual warming, but also changes in atmospheric circulation, hydrology, and weather, including a northward shift of the North Atlantic storm track, with greater frequency and intensity of rain storms over the GrIS. Recent studies of GrIS dynamics have focused on the effects of increased seasonal mean meltwater on ice velocities, finding only a modest impact due to compensation by subglacial drainage systems, but subglacial hydraulic theory indicates that variability on shorter timescales is also relevant: short-term surges in meltwater or rainfall can overload drainage systems at rates faster than they can adjust, leading to water pressure spikes and ice acceleration. If the magnitude or frequency of these transient ice accelerations increase substantially as synoptic weather patterns change over the next century, there could be a significant cumulative impact on seasonal mean ice velocities. However, this issue has not been addressed in the literature and represents a major source of uncertainty. In this study, we investigate the role of synoptic weather variability in GrIS dynamics, with the ultimate goal of evaluating the relationships between extreme weather events and ice sheet flow in different seasons and regions of the GrIS. As a first step, we apply the machine learning technique of self-organizing maps to atmospheric reanalysis data to categorize the predominant synoptic weather systems over the GrIS domain, evaluating atmospheric moisture transport and rainfall to assess the impacts of each weather system on GrIS surface hydrology. The preliminary results presented here will be used in conjunction with ice velocity satellite measurements in future work, to identify any correlations between seasonal mean GrIS velocities and the frequency or intensity of storms during the season.

Innovative use of self-organising maps (SOMs) in model validation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jolly, Ben; McDonald, Adrian; Coggins, Jack

2016-04-01

We present an innovative combination of techniques for validation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) output against both observations and reanalyses using two classification schemes, demonstrated by a validation of the operational NWP 'AMPS' (the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System). Historically, model validation techniques have centred on case studies or statistics at various time scales (yearly/seasonal/monthly). Within the past decade the latter technique has been expanded by the addition of classification schemes in place of time scales, allowing more precise analysis. Classifications are typically generated for either the model or the observations, then used to create composites for both which are compared. Our method creates and trains a single self-organising map (SOM) on both the model output and observations, which is then used to classify both datasets using the same class definitions. In addition to the standard statistics on class composites, we compare the classifications themselves between the model and the observations. To add further context to the area studied, we use the same techniques to compare the SOM classifications with regimes developed for another study to great effect. The AMPS validation study compares model output against surface observations from SNOWWEB and existing University of Wisconsin-Madison Antarctic Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) during two months over the austral summer of 2014-15. Twelve SOM classes were defined in a '4 x 3' pattern, trained on both model output and observations of 2 m wind components, then used to classify both training datasets. Simple statistics (correlation, bias and normalised root-mean-square-difference) computed for SOM class composites showed that AMPS performed well during extreme weather events, but less well during lighter winds and poorly during the more changeable conditions between either extreme. Comparison of the classification time-series showed that, while correlations were lower during lighter wind periods, AMPS actually forecast the existence of those periods well suggesting that the correlations may be unfairly low. Further investigation showed poor temporal alignment during more changeable conditions, highlighting problems AMPS has around the exact timing of events. There was also a tendency for AMPS to over-predict certain wind flow patterns at the expense of others. In order to gain a larger scale perspective, we compared our mesoscale SOM classification time-series with synoptic scale regimes developed by another study using ERA-Interim reanalysis output and k-means clustering. There was good alignment between the regimes and the observations classifications (observations/regimes), highlighting the effect of synoptic scale forcing on the area. However, comparing the alignment between observations/regimes and AMPS/regimes showed that AMPS may have problems accurately resolving the strength and location of cyclones in the Ross Sea to the north of the target area.

A Composite Diagnosis of Synoptic-Scale Extratropical Cyclone Development over the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rolfson, Donald M.; Smith, Phillip J.

1996-01-01

This paper presents a composite diagnosis of synoptic-scale forcing mechanisms associated with extratropical cyclone evolution. Drawn from 12 cyclone cases that occurred over the continental United States during the cool season months, the diagnosis provides a 'climatology' of development mechanisms for difference categories of cyclone evolution ranging from cyclone weakening through three stages of cyclone intensification. Computational results were obtained using an 'extended' form of the Zwack-Okossi equation applied to routine upper-air and surface data analyzed on a 230 km x 230 km grid. Results show that cyclonic vorticity advection, which maximizes in the upper troposphere, was the primary contributor to cyclone development regardless of the stage of development. A second consistent contributor to development was latent heat release. Horizontal temperature advection, often acknowledged as a development mechanism, was found to contribute to development only during more intense stages. During weakening and weaker development stages, temperature advection opposed development, as the warm-air advection invariably found at upper levels was dominated by cold air advection in the lower half of the troposphere. In the more intense stages, development was moderated by dry-adiabatic cooling associated with the ascending vertical motions.

Synoptic Storms in the North Atlantic in the Atmospheric Reanalysis and Scatterometer-Based Wind Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dukhovskoy, D. S.; Bourassa, M. A.

2016-12-01

The study compares and analyses the characteristics of synoptic storms in the Subpolar North Atlantic over the time period from 2000 through 2009 derived from reanalysis data sets and scatterometer-based gridded wind products. The analysis is performed for ocean 10-m winds derived from the following wind data sets: NCEP/DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (NCEPR2), NCAR/CFSR, Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR) version 1, Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) wind product versions 1.1 and recently released version 2.0 prepared by the Remote Sensing Systems, and QuikSCAT. A cyclone tracking algorithm employed in this study for storm identification is based on average vorticity fields derived from the wind data. The study discusses storm characteristics such as storm counts, trajectories, intensity, integrated kinetic energy, spatial scale. Interannal variability of these characteristics in the data sets is compared. The analyses demonstrates general agreement among the wind data products on the characteristics of the storms, their spatial distribution and trajectories. On average, the NCEPR2 storms are more energetic mostly due to large spatial scales and stronger winds. There is noticeable interannual variability in the storm characteristics, yet no obvious trend in storms is observed in the data sets.

Preliminary classification of water areas within the Atchafalaya Basin Floodway System by using landsat imagery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Yvonne C.; Constant, Glenn C.; Couvillion, Brady R.

2008-01-01

The southern portion of the Atchafalaya Basin Floodway System (ABFS) is a large area (2,571 km2) in south central Louisiana bounded on the east and west sides by a levee system. The ABFS is a sparsely populated area that includes some of the Nation's most significant extents of bottomland hardwoods, swamps, bayous, and backwater lakes, holding a rich abundance and diversity of terrestrial and aquatic species. The seasonal flow of water through the ABFS is critical to maintaining its ecological integrity. Because of strong interdependencies among species, habitat quality, and water flow in the ABFS, there is a need to better define the paths by which water moves at various stages of the hydrocycle. Although river level gages have collected a long historical record of water level variation, very little synoptic information has been available regarding the distribution and character of water at more remote locations in the basin. Most water management plans for the ABFS strive to improve water quality by increasing water flow and circulation from the main stem of the Atchafalaya River into isolated areas. To describe the distribution of land and water on a basin-wide scale, we chose to use Landsat 5 and Landsat 7 imagery to determine the extent of water distribution from 1985 to 2006 and at a variety of river stages. Because the visual signature of river water is high turbidity, we also used Landsat imagery to describe the distribution of turbid water in the ABFS. The ability to track water flow patterns by tracking turbid waters will enhance the characterization of water movement and aid in planning.

Bone Marrow Synoptic Reporting for Hematologic Neoplasms: Guideline From the College of American Pathologists Pathology and Laboratory Quality Center.

PubMed

Sever, Cordelia; Abbott, Charles L; de Baca, Monica E; Khoury, Joseph D; Perkins, Sherrie L; Reichard, Kaaren Kemp; Taylor, Ann; Terebelo, Howard R; Colasacco, Carol; Rumble, R Bryan; Thomas, Nicole E

2016-09-01

-There is ample evidence from the solid tumor literature that synoptic reporting improves accuracy and completeness of relevant data. No evidence-based guidelines currently exist for synoptic reporting for bone marrow samples. -To develop evidence-based recommendations to standardize the basic components of a synoptic report template for bone marrow samples. -The College of American Pathologists Pathology and Laboratory Quality Center convened a panel of experts in hematopathology to develop recommendations. A systematic evidence review was conducted to address 5 key questions. Recommendations were derived from strength of evidence, open comment feedback, and expert panel consensus. -Nine guideline statements were established to provide pathology laboratories with a framework by which to develop synoptic reporting templates for bone marrow samples. The guideline calls for specific data groups in the synoptic section of the pathology report; provides a list of evidence-based parameters for key, pertinent elements; and addresses ancillary testing. -A framework for bone marrow synoptic reporting will improve completeness of the final report in a manner that is clear, succinct, and consistent among institutions.

Satellite radiothermovision of atmospheric mesoscale processes: case study of tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ermakov, D. M.; Sharkov, E. A.; Chernushich, A. P.

2015-04-01

Satellite radiothermovision is a set of processing techniques applicable for multisource data of radiothermal monitoring of oceanatmosphere system, which allows creating dynamic description of mesoscale and synoptic atmospheric processes and estimating physically meaningful integral characteristics of the observed processes (like avdective flow of the latent heat through a given border). The approach is based on spatiotemporal interpolation of the satellite measurements which allows reconstructing the radiothermal fields (as well as the fields of geophysical parameters) of the ocean-atmosphere system at global scale with spatial resolution of about 0.125° and temporal resolution of 1.5 hour. The accuracy of spatiotemporal interpolation was estimated by direct comparison of interpolated data with the data of independent asynchronous measurements and was shown to correspond to the best achievable as reported in literature (for total precipitable water fields the accuracy is about 0.8 mm). The advantages of the implemented interpolation scheme are: closure under input radiothermal data, homogeneity in time scale (all data are interpolated through the same time intervals), automatic estimation of both the intermediate states of scalar field of the studied geophysical parameter and of vector field of effective velocity of advection (horizontal movements). Using this pair of fields one can calculate the flow of a given geophysical quantity though any given border. For example, in case of total precipitable water field, this flow (under proper calibration) has the meaning of latent heat advective flux. This opportunity was used to evaluate the latent heat flux though a set of circular contours, enclosing a tropical cyclone and drifting with it during its evolution. A remarkable interrelation was observed between the calculated magnitude and sign of advective latent flux and the intensity of a tropical cyclone. This interrelation is demonstrated in several examples of hurricanes and tropical cyclones of August, 2000, and typhoons of November, 2013, including super typhoon Haiyan.

Evaluate transport processes in MERRA driven chemical transport models using updated 222Rn emission inventories and global observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, B.; Liu, H.; Crawford, J. H.; Fairlie, T. D.; Chen, G.; Chambers, S. D.; Kang, C. H.; Williams, A. G.; Zhang, K.; Considine, D. B.; Payer Sulprizio, M.; Yantosca, R.

2015-12-01

Convective and synoptic processes play a major role in determining the transport and distribution of trace gases and aerosols in the troposphere. The representation of these processes in global models (at ~100-1000 km horizontal resolution) is challenging, because convection is a sub-grid process and needs to be parameterized, while synoptic processes are close to the grid scale. Depending on the parameterization schemes used in climate models, the role of convection in transporting trace gases and aerosols may vary from model to model. 222Rn is a chemically inert and radioactive gas constantly emitted from soil and has a half-life (3.8 days) comparable to synoptic timescale, which makes it an effective tracer for convective and synoptic transport. In this study, we evaluate the convective and synoptic transport in two chemical transport models (GMI and GEOS-Chem), both driven by the NASA's MERRA reanalysis. Considering the uncertainties in 222Rn emissions, we incorporate two more recent scenarios with regionally varying 222Rn emissions into GEOS-Chem/MERRA and compare the simulation results with those using the relatively uniform 222Rn emissions in the standard model. We evaluate the global distribution and seasonality of 222Rn concentrations simulated by the two models against an extended collection of 222Rn observations from 1970s to 2010s. The intercomparison will improve our understanding of the spatial variability in global 222Rn emissions, including the suspected excessive 222Rn emissions in East Asia, and provide useful feedbacks on 222Rn emission models. We will assess 222Rn vertical distributions at different latitudes in the models using observations at surface sites and in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Results will be compared with previous models driven by other meteorological fields (e.g., fvGCM and GEOS4). Since the decay of 222Rn is the source of 210Pb, a useful radionuclide tracer attached to submicron aerosols, improved understanding of emissions and transport of 222Rn will provide insights into the transport, distribution, and wet deposition of 210Pb aerosols.

Associations between ozone and morbidity using the Spatial Synoptic Classification system

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Synoptic circulation patterns (large-scale tropospheric motion systems) affect air pollution and, potentially, air-pollution-morbidity associations. We evaluated the effect of synoptic circulation patterns (air masses) on the association between ozone and hospital admissions for asthma and myocardial infarction (MI) among adults in North Carolina. Methods Daily surface meteorology data (including precipitation, wind speed, and dew point) for five selected cities in North Carolina were obtained from the U.S. EPA Air Quality System (AQS), which were in turn based on data from the National Climatic Data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We used the Spatial Synoptic Classification system to classify each day of the 9-year period from 1996 through 2004 into one of seven different air mass types: dry polar, dry moderate, dry tropical, moist polar, moist moderate, moist tropical, or transitional. Daily 24-hour maximum 1-hour ambient concentrations of ozone were obtained from the AQS. Asthma and MI hospital admissions data for the 9-year period were obtained from the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services. Generalized linear models were used to assess the association of the hospitalizations with ozone concentrations and specific air mass types, using pollutant lags of 0 to 5 days. We examined the effect across cities on days with the same air mass type. In all models we adjusted for dew point and day-of-the-week effects related to hospital admissions. Results Ozone was associated with asthma under dry tropical (1- to 5-day lags), transitional (3- and 4-day lags), and extreme moist tropical (0-day lag) air masses. Ozone was associated with MI only under the extreme moist tropical (5-day lag) air masses. Conclusions Elevated ozone levels are associated with dry tropical, dry moderate, and moist tropical air masses, with the highest ozone levels being associated with the dry tropical air mass. Certain synoptic circulation patterns/air masses in conjunction with ambient ozone levels were associated with increased asthma and MI hospitalizations. PMID:21609456

Hydrologic processes in China and their association with summer precipitation anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Pollard, D.; Barron, E. J.

2005-01-01

A climate version of MM5 is applied to study hydrologic processes in China and their association with precipitation anomalies in 1980 and 1985, which are two anomalous years with opposite signs of summer precipitation anomalies. The study reveals that anomalous atmospheric moisture transport due to synoptic scale circulation was primarily responsible for initiating the anomalous wet (dry) summer in south-central China and dry (wet) summer in northeastern China in 1980 (1985). The recycling ratio (defined as contribution of local evaporation to total precipitation) ranges from less than 4% in northwestern China to more than 30% in south-central China at 1000 km space scale. Higher (lower) values of recycling ratio correspond to drier (wetter) summers in south-central China and northeastern China. However, the opposite is true in northwestern China. The recycling ratio reflects feedback among hydrologic components over both land and atmosphere. In northwestern China, these feedbacks will further sustain drought events that are triggered by anomalous synoptic scale disturbances, and turn them into prolonged and possibly perpetual phenomenon. However, in south-central China and northeastern China, these feedbacks help reducing severity of drought. The large differences in recycling ratio between the dry and wet years of 1980 and 1985 are indicative of powerful feedback between hydrologic and climatic processes, and imply that surface-atmosphere interaction in China is highly sensitive to climatic perturbation.

Prospects for seasonal forecasting of summer drought and low river flow anomalies in England and Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wedgbrow, C. S.; Wilby, R. L.; Fox, H. R.; O'Hare, G.

2002-02-01

Future climate change scenarios suggest enhanced temporal and spatial gradients in water resources across the UK. Provision of seasonal forecast statistics for surface climate variables could alleviate some negative effects of climate change on water resource infrastructure. This paper presents a preliminary investigation of spatial and temporal relationships between large-scale North Atlantic climatic indices, drought severity and river flow anomalies in England and Wales. Potentially useful predictive relationships are explored between winter indices of the Polar-Eurasian (POL) teleconnection pattern, the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), and the summer Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and reconstructed river flows in England and Wales. Correlation analyses, coherence testing and an index of forecast potential, demonstrate that preceding winter values of the POL index, SSTA (and to a lesser extent the NAO), provide indications of summer and early autumn drought severity and river flow anomalies in parts of northwest, southwest and southeast England. Correlation analyses demonstrate that positive winter anomalies of T1, POL index and NAO index are associated with negative PDSI (i.e. drought) across eastern parts of the British Isles in summer (r < 0.51). Coherence tests show that a positive winter SSTA (1871-1995) and POL index (1950-95) have preceded below-average summer river flows in the northwest and southwest of England and Wales in 70 to 100% of summers. The same rivers have also experienced below-average flows during autumn following negative winter phases of the NAO index in 64 to 93% of summers (1865-1995). Possible explanations for the predictor-predictand relationships are considered, including the memory of groundwater, and ocean-atmosphere coupling, and regional manifestations of synoptic rainfall processes. However, further research is necessary to increase the number of years and predictor variables from which it is possible to derive rules that may be useful for forecasting.

Extended field observations of cirrus clouds using a ground-based cloud observing system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ackerman, Thomas P.

1994-01-01

The evolution of synoptic-scale dynamics associated with a middle and upper tropospheric cloud event that occurred on 26 November 1991 is examined. The case under consideration occurred during the FIRE CIRRUS-II Intensive Field Observing Period held in Coffeyville, KS during Nov. and Dec., 1991. Using data from the wind profiler demonstration network and a temporally and spatially augmented radiosonde array, emphasis is given to explaining the evolution of the kinematically-derived ageostrophic vertical circulations and correlating the circulation with the forcing of an extensively sampled cloud field. This is facilitated by decomposing the horizontal divergence into its component parts through a natural coordinate representation of the flow. Ageostrophic vertical circulations are inferred and compared to the circulation forcing arising from geostrophic confluence and shearing deformation derived from the Sawyer-Eliassen Equation. It is found that a thermodynamically indirect vertical circulation existed in association with a jet streak exit region. The circulation was displaced to the cyclonic side of the jet axis due to the orientation of the jet exit between a deepening diffluent trough and building ridge. The cloud line formed in the ascending branch of the vertical circulation with the most concentrated cloud development occurring in conjunction with the maximum large-scale vertical motion. The relationship between the large scale dynamics and the parameterization of middle and upper tropospheric clouds in large-scale models is discussed and an example of ice water contents derived from a parameterization forced by the diagnosed vertical motions and observed water vapor contents is presented.

CENTER FOR CLIMATIC RESEARCH, UNIVERSITY OF DELAWARE

EPA Science Inventory

The synoptic climatology group performs research into a variety of applied climatological issues that affect humans and other organisms around the world. Synoptic climatology is essentially an holistic approach to weather and climate. Synoptic climatologists attempt to characteri...

A preliminary look at AVE-SESAME 5 conducted on 20-21 May 1979

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

July, M.; Turner, R. E.

1981-01-01

Information on data collected, synoptic conditions, and severe and unusual weather reported during the period are presented. Records of the synoptic conditions include synoptic charts, radar charts, satellite photographs, and rainfall observations.

Integrated Study of the Dynamics of the Kuroshio Intrusion and Effects on Acoustic Propagation

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-08-03

runs that could then be evaluated against synoptic surveys collected using a ship-based towed, undulating profiler. ocean circulation; ocean...Revelle. Gliders were launched from R/V Melville in May. Data from the broad-scale hydrographic survey undertaken by OR2 and OR3 in Taiwan Strait...1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 Salinity psu figure 1. plan views of the temperature and salinity fields from two broad-scale surveys from r/Vs Ocean Researcher 2

The variability of winds over the ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierson, W. J.

1981-01-01

The present state of knowledge of the synoptic scale, the mesoscale, and the microscale in describing the winds, especially over the ocean, is summarized both in terms of conventional data and remotely sensed properties and effects of the winds. A description is then given of some of the areas posing problems in modeling each scale and interpreting the various kinds of measurements that are made. It is noted that not much is known about the wind, especially in the mesoscale, that affects the ability to use remotely sensed data in an optimum way.

An assessment of potential weather effects due to operation of the Space Orbiting Light Augmentation Reflector Energy System (SOLARES)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, N. C.

1978-01-01

Implementation of SOLARES will input large quantities of heat continuously into a stationary location on the Earth's surface. The quantity of heat released by each of the SOlARES ground receivers, having a reflector orbit height of 6378 km, exceeds by 30 times that released by large power parks which were studied in detail. Using atmospheric models, estimates are presented for the local weather effects, the synoptic scale effects, and the global scale effects from such intense thermal radiation.

Future equivalent of 2010 Russian heatwave intensified by weakening soil moisture constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmijn, L. M.; van der Schrier, G.; Bintanja, R.; Barkmeijer, J.; Sterl, A.; Hazeleger, W.

2018-05-01

The 2010 heatwave in eastern Europe and Russia ranks among the hottest events ever recorded in the region1,2. The excessive summer warmth was related to an anomalously widespread and intense quasi-stationary anticyclonic circulation anomaly over western Russia, reinforced by depletion of spring soil moisture1,3-5. At present, high soil moisture levels and strong surface evaporation generally tend to cap maximum summer temperatures6-8, but these constraints may weaken under future warming9,10. Here, we use a data assimilation technique in which future climate model simulations are nudged to realistically represent the persistence and strength of the 2010 blocked atmospheric flow. In the future, synoptically driven extreme warming under favourable large-scale atmospheric conditions will no longer be suppressed by abundant soil moisture, leading to a disproportional intensification of future heatwaves. This implies that future mid-latitude heatwaves analogous to the 2010 event will become even more extreme than previously thought, with temperature extremes increasing by 8.4 °C over western Russia. Thus, the socioeconomic impacts of future heatwaves will probably be amplified beyond current estimates.

Nano- and Microscale Particles in Vortex Motions in Earth's Atmosphere and Ionosphere

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Popel, S. I.; Izvekova, Yu. N.; Shukla, P. K.

2010-12-14

Vortex motions in the atmosphere are shown to be closely connected with dynamics of the dust nano- and microscale particles. The mechanism by which nano- and microscale particles are transported from the troposphere into the lower stratosphere by synoptic-scale vortices, simulated by the soliton solutions to the Charney-Obukhov equations (Rossby vortices), is described. Redistribution of dust particles in the ionosphere as a result of vortical motions is discussed. It is shown that excitation of acoustic-gravitational vortices at altitudes of 110-130 km as a result of development of acoustic-gravitational wave instability, associated with nonzero balance of heat fluxes, owing to solarmore » radiation, water vapors condensation, infrared emission of the atmosphere, and thermal conductivity, leads to a substantial transportation of dust particles and their mixing at altitudes of 110-120 km. One of the ways of transportation of dust particles in the ionosphere is shown to be vertical flows (streamers), which are generated by dust vortices as a result of development of parametric instability.« less

Kinetic energy budgets during the life cycle of intense convective activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuelberg, H. E.; Scoggins, J. R.

1978-01-01

Synoptic-scale data at three- and six-hour intervals are employed to study the relationship between changing kinetic energy variables and the life cycles of two severe squall lines. The kinetic energy budgets indicate a high degree of kinetic energy generation, especially pronounced near the jet-stream level. Energy losses in the storm environment are due to the transfer of kinetic energy from grid to subgrid scales of motion; large-scale upward vertical motion carries aloft the kinetic energy generated by storm activity at lower levels. In general, the time of maximum storm intensity is also the time of maximum energy conversion and transport.

Inter-Annual Variability of the Acoustic Propagation in the Mediterranean Sea Identified from a Synoptic Monthly Gridded Database as Compared with GDEM

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

VARIABILITY OF THE ACOUSTIC PROPAGATION IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA IDENTIFIED FROM A SYNOPTIC MONTHLY GRIDDED DATABASE AS COMPARED WITH GDEM by...ANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE ACOUSTIC PROPAGATION IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA IDENTIFIED FROM A SYNOPTIC MONTHLY GRIDDED DATABASE AS COMPARED WITH GDEM 5...profiles obtained from the synoptic monthly gridded World Ocean Database (SMD-WOD) and Generalized Digital Environmental Model (GDEM) temperature (T

Characterization of Jupiter's Atmosphere from Galileo and Earth-Based Observations During the Ganymede-1 and Ganymede-2 Orbit Encounters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orton, G.; Fisher, B.; Ortiz, J. L.; Yanamandra-Fisher, P.; Rages, K.; Howell, R.; Klebe, D.; Stencel, R.; Drossart, P.; Lecacheux, J.; Colas, F.; Frappa, E.; Hernandez, C.; Parker, D.; Miyazaki, I.; Stewart, S.; Stansberry, J.; Spencer, J.; Golisch, W.; Griep, D.; Hainaut, M.-C.; Joseph, R.; Kaminski, C.; Banjevic, M.; Connor, C.; Hinkley, S.; Marinova, M.; Marriage, B.; Dobrea, E. Noe

1996-09-01

Galileo remote sensing data are examined in the context of an extensive set of earth-based observations supporting the Ganymede-1 and Ganymede-2 encounters. Movies of the Great Red Spot (GRS) in reflected sunlight, show large-scale flow; for example, the circular feature northwest of the GRS during G1 was one of several high-altitude systems moving westward with respect to the GRS. The southern part of the clear band surrounding the GRS was narrower at 5 mu m than 8.57 mu m, suggesting more cloud cover at depth than at the NH_3 condensation level; this region was also warmer in the troposphere. High-altitude particles were found in the flow pattern ``trailing'' the GRS. The real-time NIMS G1 spectra sampled a region only moderately bright at 5-mu m, not a classical ``hot spot''. Synoptic middle-infrared spectra of this region complement NIMS spectra of the deep troposphere by constraining abundances of NH_3 and PH_3 at higher altitudes. The southern part of the North Equatorial Belt, observed by both NIMS spectra and PPR radiometry, was very active, generating classical bright ``plumes'' and dark ovals (``barges'') for the first time in many months. A long-term program will continue to observe potential targets for the Galileo's atmospheric investigation.

Modelling the upwelling offthe east Hainan Island coast in summer 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Peng; Gu, Yanzhen; Li, Peiliang; Wu, Kejian

2016-11-01

A synoptic-scale upwelling event that developed offthe east coast of the Hainan Island (EHIU) in the summer of 2010 is defined well via processing the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea surface temperature (SST) data. The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with high spatial resolution has been used to investigate this upwelling event. By comparing the ROMS results against tide station data, Argo float profiles and MODIS SST, it is confirmed that the ROMS reproduces the EHIU well. The cooler-water core (CWC) distinguished by waters < 27.5°C in the EHIU, which occurred in the east Qiongzhou Strait mouth area and was bounded by a high temperature gradient, was the focus of this paper. Vertical structure of the CWC suggests that interaction between the westward flow and the bathymetry slope played a significant role in the formation of CWC. Numerical experiments indicated that the westward flow in the Qiongzhou Strait was the result of tidal rectification over variable topography (Shi et al., 2002), thus tides played a critical role on the development of the CWC. The negative wind stress curl that dominated the east Qiongzhou Strait mouth area suppressed the intensity of the CWC by 0.2-0.4°C. Further, nonlinear interaction between tidal currents and wind stress enhanced vertical mixing greatly, which would benefit the development of the CWC.

Polynya dynamics and associated atmospheric forcing at the Ronne Ice Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebner, Lars; Heinemann, Günther

2014-05-01

The Ronne Ice Shelf is known as one of the most active regions of polynya developments around the Antarctic continent. Low temperatures are prevailing throughout the whole year, particularly in winter. It is generally recognized that polynya formations are primarily forced by offshore winds and secondarily by ocean currents. Many authors have addressed this issue previously at the Ross Ice Shelf and Adélie Coast and connected polynya dynamics to strong katabatic surge events. Such investigations of atmospheric dynamics and simultaneous polynya occurrence are still severely underrepresented for the southwestern part of the Weddell Sea and especially for the Ronne Ice Shelf. Due to the very flat terrain gradients of the ice shelf katabatic winds are of minor importance in that area. Other atmospheric processes must therefore play a crucial role for polynya developments at the Ronne Ice Shelf. High-resolution simulations have been carried out for the Weddell Sea region using the non-hydrostatic NWP model COSMO from the German Meteorological Service (DWD). For the austral autumn and winter (March to August) 2008 daily forecast simulations were conducted with the consideration of daily sea-ice coverage deduced from the passive microwave system AMSR-E. These simulations are used to analyze the synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric dynamics of the Weddell Sea region and find linkages to polynya occurrence at the Ronne Ice Shelf. For that reason, the relation between the surface wind speed, the synoptic pressure gradient in the free atmosphere and polynya area is investigated. Seven significant polynya events are identified for the simulation period, three in the autumn and four in the winter season. It can be shown that in almost all cases synoptic cyclones are the primary polynya forcing systems. In most cases the timely interaction of several passing cyclones in the northern and central Weddell Sea leads to maintenance of a strong synoptic pressure gradient above the Ronne Ice Shelf. This strong synoptic forcing results in a moderate to strong offshore surface wind. It turned out that these synoptic depressions lead to strong barrier winds above the northwestern Ronne Ice Shelf and along the eastern flank of the Antarctic Peninsula. The fact, that these barrier winds often appear prior or during the initial break up of sea ice at the shelf ice edge, suggest that this mesoscale wind phenomenon plays a crucial role for polynya development. Furthermore, even mesoscale cyclogenesis above the Ronne Ice Shelf and the following northeastward passage of such a system can break up sea-ice cover under large-scale stationary weather conditions.

Precipitation regimes over central Greenland inferred from 5 years of ICECAPS observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pettersen, Claire; Bennartz, Ralf; Merrelli, Aronne J.; Shupe, Matthew D.; Turner, David D.; Walden, Von P.

2018-04-01

A novel method for classifying Arctic precipitation using ground based remote sensors is presented. Using differences in the spectral variation of microwave absorption and scattering properties of cloud liquid water and ice, this method can distinguish between different types of snowfall events depending on the presence or absence of condensed liquid water in the clouds that generate the precipitation. The classification reveals two distinct, primary regimes of precipitation over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS): one originating from fully glaciated ice clouds and the other from mixed-phase clouds. Five years of co-located, multi-instrument data from the Integrated Characterization of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit (ICECAPS) are used to examine cloud and meteorological properties and patterns associated with each precipitation regime. The occurrence and accumulation of the precipitation regimes are identified and quantified. Cloud and precipitation observations from additional ICECAPS instruments illustrate distinct characteristics for each regime. Additionally, reanalysis products and back-trajectory analysis show different synoptic-scale forcings associated with each regime. Precipitation over the central GIS exhibits unique microphysical characteristics due to the high surface elevations as well as connections to specific large-scale flow patterns. Snowfall originating from the ice clouds is coupled to deep, frontal cloud systems advecting up and over the southeast Greenland coast to the central GIS. These events appear to be associated with individual storm systems generated by low pressure over Baffin Bay and Greenland lee cyclogenesis. Snowfall originating from mixed-phase clouds is shallower and has characteristics typical of supercooled cloud liquid water layers, and slowly propagates from the south and southwest of Greenland along a quiescent flow above the GIS.

Characterizing the Influence of the General Circulation on Marine Boundary Layer Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rozendaal, Margaret A.; Rossow, William B.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The seasonal and intraseasonal variability of boundary layer cloud in the subtropical eastern oceans are studied using combined data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis. Spectral analysis reveals that most of the time variability of cloud properties occurs on seasonal to annual time scales. The variance decreases one to two orders of magnitude for each decade of time scale decrease, indicating that daily to monthly time scales have smaller, but non-negligible variability. The length of these dominant time scales suggests that the majority of the variability is influenced by the general circulation and its interaction with boundary layer turbulence, rather than a product of boundary layer turbulence alone. Previous datasets have lacked the necessary resolution in either time or in space to properly characterize variability on synoptic scales; this is remedied by using global satellite-retrieved cloud properties. We characterize the intraseasonal subtropical cloud variability in both hemispheres and in different seasons. In addition to cloud fraction, we examine variability of cloud optical thickness - cloud top pressure frequency distributions. Despite the large concentration of research on the variability of Northern Hemisphere (NH) regions during summer, it is noted that the largest amplitude intraseasonal variability in the NH regions occurs during local winter. The effect of intraseasonal variability on the calculation and interpretation of seasonal results is investigated. Decreases in seasonally averaged cloud cover, optical thickness and cloud top pressure from the May-through-September season to the November-through-March season are most apparent in the NH regions. Further analysis indicates that these changes are due to an increase in frequency, but a decrease in the persistence of synoptic events. In addition, changes in cloud top pressure and optical thickness characteristics from the summer to winter seasons indicate that the NH subtropics undergo a change in dynamic regime with season. This change appears in the cloud fields as a shift from the more commonly seen lower-altitude, thicker optical thickness clouds to higher-altitude, thinner clouds. The latter cloud-type is associated with the lower sea level pressure, upward vertical velocity phase of the synoptic wave. Intraseasonal changes in cloud properties in the Southern Hemisphere and NH summer are much smaller in amplitude. Although they also appear to be linked to changes in the large-scale dynamics, similarly to NH winter variations, the relationships are more ambiguous due to the small amplitudes and longer time scales. We attempt to interpret some of these relationships using the results of the Betts and Ridgway (1989) box model. However, these results cannot consistently explain the patterns when results from all regions are considered, implying that this model may not adequately explain all the processes involved in the variability.

The tropical experiment of the Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange Project (STEP) - Science objectives, operations, and summary findings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, P. B.; Pfister, L.; Selkirk, H. B.

1993-01-01

An overview is presented of the tropical component of STEP. The STEP cooperative experiments are described and summaries are presented of the STEP tropical ER-2 aircraft flights. STEP tropical results on dehydration and transfer and the mechanisms of upward transfer are summarized. Illustrations show flight paths for each sortie on satellite images and on 100 hPa synoptic flow charts, as well as the timing of flights with respect to overall cloudiness in the Australian region.

An Evaluation of Marine Fog Forecast Concepts and a Preliminary Design for a Marine Obscuration Forecast System.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-06-01

the upwelling zone, low-level subsidence such as found in the semi-permanent subtropical high, and coastal mountain ranges. In order for marine fog...patterns, or in downslope flow off coastal mountain ranges. Descriptions of linkages between fog types and characteristics and synoptic and mesoscale...quadrant)in t0e layer between 500- 1500 m. Since the orientation of the mountain ranges along the coast is approximately north to south this

Synoptic Scale Influences on Increasing Summertime Extreme Precipitation Events in the Northeastern United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collow, Allison; Bosilovich, Mike; Koster, Randal

2017-01-01

Over the past 15 years, the northeastern United States has seen a statistically significant increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events that is larger and more widespread than anywhere else in the country. This increase in events is more likely to be associated with frontal and low-pressure systems, rather than being caused by more tropical cyclones impacting the region.

Empirical and modeled synoptic cloud climatology of the Arctic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barry, R. G.; Newell, J. P.; Schweiger, A.; Crane, R. G.

1986-01-01

A set of cloud cover data were developed for the Arctic during the climatically important spring/early summer transition months. Parallel with the determination of mean monthly cloud conditions, data for different synoptic pressure patterns were also composited as a means of evaluating the role of synoptic variability on Arctic cloud regimes. In order to carry out this analysis, a synoptic classification scheme was developed for the Arctic using an objective typing procedure. A second major objective was to analyze model output of pressure fields and cloud parameters from a control run of the Goddard Institue for Space Studies climate model for the same area and to intercompare the synoptic climatatology of the model with that based on the observational data.

An Israeli haboob: Sea breeze activating local anthropogenic dust sources in the Negev loess

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crouvi, Onn; Dayan, Uri; Amit, Rivka; Enzel, Yehouda

2017-02-01

Meso-scale weather systems, such as convective haboobs, are considered to be an important dust generation mechanism. In Israel, however, rather than of meso-scale weather systems, most dust storms are generated by synoptic-scale systems, originating from Sahara and Arabia. Consequently, only distal sources of suspended and deposited dust in Israel are currently reported. Here we report the first detailed study on the merging of synoptic- and meso-scale weather systems leading to a prominent dust outbreak over the Negev, Israel. During the afternoon of May 2nd, 2007, a massive dust storm covered the northern Negev, forming a one kilometer high wall of dust. The haboob was associated with PM10 concentrations of 1000-1500 μg m-3 that advanced at a speed of 10-15 m s-1 and caused temporary closure of local airports. In contrast to most reported haboobs, this one was generated by a sea breeze front acting as a weak cold front enhanced by a cold core cyclone positioned over Libya and Egypt. The sea breeze that brought cold and moist marine air acted as a gravity current with strong surface winds. The sources for the haboob were the loessial soils of the northwestern Negev, especially agricultural fields that were highly disturbed in late spring to early summer. Such surface disturbance is caused by agricultural and/or intensive grazing practices. Our study emphasizes the importance of local dust sources in the Negev and stresses loess recycling as an important process in contemporary dust storms over Israel.

The Climatology of Low-Level Jet in Beijing and Guangzhou, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Yucong; Guo, Jianping; Liu, Shuhua; Wei, Wei; Zhang, Gen; Lin, Yanluan; Zhai, Panmao

2018-03-01

The important roles of low-level jet (LLJ) in transport of heat, moisture, and pollutants have long been recognized. However, partly due to the lack of long-term observations, the characteristics of LLJs in Beijing and Guangzhou have not been well understood. Using long-term wind profiler observations and numerical simulations, the basic climatological characteristics of LLJ in Beijing and Guangzhou were documented, and their relationships with large- and local-scale forcings were investigated. The occurrence frequencies of LLJ in both megacities approximately exhibit a bimodal distribution during an annual cycle. In terms of the seasonality, the LLJs in Beijing occur more often in spring and winter, and those in Guangzhou appear more frequently from October to December and from February to April. Pronounced diurnal variations of LLJ are found in Beijing, where most LLJs occurred during the nighttime, and the diurnal variations of LLJ in Guangzhou are less prominent. Favorable synoptic conditions for LLJ formations in Beijing are those having a southwest-northeast or southeast-northwest pressure gradient across Beijing. Dominant synoptic patterns associated with LLJs in Guangzhou are those having a low-pressure or high-pressure system to the northwest. Overall, the LLJs are primarily induced by synoptic forcings and modulated by the diurnal evolution of planetary boundary layer. The key findings from this study provide us a better understanding of the LLJs in these highly populated regions.

Improvement of the analog forecasting method by using local thermodynamic data. Application to autumn precipitation in Catalonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibergans-Báguena, J.; Llasat, M. C.

2007-12-01

The objective of this paper is to present the improvement of quantitative forecasting of daily rainfall in Catalonia (NE Spain) from an analogues technique, taking into account synoptic and local data. This method is based on an analogues sorting technique: meteorological situations similar to the current one, in terms of 700 and 1000 hPa geopotential fields at 00 UTC, complemented with the inclusion of some thermodynamic parameters extracted from an historical data file. Thermodynamic analysis acts as a highly discriminating feature for situations in which the synoptic situation fails to explain either atmospheric phenomena or rainfall distribution. This is the case in heavy rainfall situations, where the existence of instability and high water vapor content is essential. With the objective of including these vertical thermodynamic features, information provided by the Palma de Mallorca radiosounding (Spain) has been used. Previously, a selection of the most discriminating thermodynamic parameters for the daily rainfall was made, and then the analogues technique applied to them. Finally, three analog forecasting methods were applied for the quantitative daily rainfall forecasting in Catalonia. The first one is based on analogies from geopotential fields to synoptic scale; the second one is exclusively based on the search of similarity from local thermodynamic information and the third method combines the other two methods. The results show that this last method provides a substantial improvement of quantitative rainfall estimation.

Application of satellite data to tropic/subtropic moisture coupling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcguirk, J. P.; Thompson, A. H.

1985-01-01

The objective is to develop analysis tools for use of satellite data to interpret synoptic-scale systems in data-void regions. Interim goals are to: (1) quantify the synoptic information content of satellite data; and (2) utilize these data in the diagnosis of moisture bursts in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Researchers developed and implemented a statistical procedure for using TIROS N microwave data to infer infrared channel data for overcast conditions; they used the same procedure for deducing full TIROS N channel radiance profiles from NOAA 5 VTPR channel data over regions where the TIROS N data are missing. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of twice-daily channel radiance fields over the tropical eastern Pacific was completed. The vertically oriented eigenfunctions were interpreted in terms of typical meteorological events. The horizontal distribution of the eigenfunction amplitudes relates these meteorological signals to moisture bursts. A pair of moisture burst climatologies is complete: one of four years using infrared imagery (including the highly anomalous 1982 to 83 cold season); the other implementing 850 to 200 mb wind analyses in conjunction with GOES imagery. A number of different evaluations of the synoptic evolution of moisture fields (enhanced infrared imagery, moisture channel data, FGGE humidity analysis, and in situ station and sounding observations) are compared. All have limitations; all can be utilized together; all together are still less than adequate in the tropical Pacific.

Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

2005-01-01

This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

Upper mixed layer temperature anomalies at the North Atlantic storm-track zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moshonkin, S. N.; Diansky, N. A.

1995-10-01

Synoptic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) were determined as a result of separation of time scales smaller than 183 days. The SSTAs were investigated using daily data of ocean weather station C (52.75°N; 35.5°W) from 1 January 1976 to 31 December 1980 (1827 days). There were 47 positive and 50 negative significant SSTAs (lifetime longer than 3 days, absolute value greater than 0.10 °C) with four main intervals of the lifetime repetitions: 1. 4-7 days (45% of all cases), 2. 9-13 days (20-25%), 3. 14-18 days (10-15%), and 4. 21-30 days (10-15%) and with a magnitude 1.5-2.0 °C. An upper layer balance model based on equations for temperature, salinity, mechanical energy (with advanced parametrization), state (density), and drift currents was used to simulate SSTA. The original method of modelling taking into account the mean observed temperature profiles proved to be very stable. The model SSTAs are in a good agreement with the observed amplitudes and phases of synoptic SSTAs during all 5 years. Surface heat flux anomalies are the main source of SSTAs. The influence of anomalous drift heat advection is about 30-50% of the SSTA, and the influence of salinity anomalies is about 10-25% and less. The influence of a large-scale ocean front was isolated only once in February-April 1978 during all 5 years. Synoptic SSTAs develop just in the upper half of the homogeneous layer at each winter. We suggest that there are two main causes of such active sublayer formation: 1. surface heat flux in the warm sectors of cyclones and 2. predominant heat transport by ocean currents from the south. All frequency functions of the ocean temperature synoptic response to heat and momentum surface fluxes are of integral character (red noise), though there is strong resonance with 20-days period of wind-driven horizontal heat advection with mixed layer temperature; there are some other peculiarities on the time scales from 5.5 to 13 days. Observed and modelled frequency functions seem to be in good agreement. Acknowledgements. The authors are grateful to Prof. A. K. Sen of the Institute of Radio Physics and Electronics, University of Calcutta for valuable discussions. One of the authors (R. B.) expresses thanks to the C.S.I.R., New Delhi for financial assistance. Our special thanks are due to the two referees of this paper for their valuable critical comments. The Eastern Centre for Research in Astrophysics (ECRA) is also acknowledged for financial support. The Editor-in-Chief thanks M. Cliverd and A. E. Reznikov for their help in evaluating this paper.--> Correspondence to: A. B. Bhattacharya-->

Modeling the contributions of global air temperature, synoptic-scale phenomena and soil moisture to near-surface static energy variability using artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pryor, Sara C.; Sullivan, Ryan C.; Schoof, Justin T.

2017-12-01

The static energy content of the atmosphere is increasing on a global scale, but exhibits important subglobal and subregional scales of variability and is a useful parameter for integrating the net effect of changes in the partitioning of energy at the surface and for improving understanding of the causes of so-called warming holes (i.e., locations with decreasing daily maximum air temperatures (T) or increasing trends of lower magnitude than the global mean). Further, measures of the static energy content (herein the equivalent potential temperature, θe) are more strongly linked to excess human mortality and morbidity than air temperature alone, and have great relevance in understanding causes of past heat-related excess mortality and making projections of possible future events that are likely to be associated with negative human health and economic consequences. New nonlinear statistical models for summertime daily maximum and minimum θe are developed and used to advance understanding of drivers of historical change and variability over the eastern USA. The predictor variables are an index of the daily global mean temperature, daily indices of the synoptic-scale meteorology derived from T and specific humidity (Q) at 850 and 500 hPa geopotential heights (Z), and spatiotemporally averaged soil moisture (SM). SM is particularly important in determining the magnitude of θe over regions that have previously been identified as exhibiting warming holes, confirming the key importance of SM in dictating the partitioning of net radiation into sensible and latent heat and dictating trends in near-surface T and θe. Consistent with our a priori expectations, models built using artificial neural networks (ANNs) out-perform linear models that do not permit interaction of the predictor variables (global T, synoptic-scale meteorological conditions and SM). This is particularly marked in regions with high variability in minimum and maximum θe, where more complex models built using ANN with multiple hidden layers are better able to capture the day-to-day variability in θe and the occurrence of extreme maximum θe. Over the entire domain, the ANN with three hidden layers exhibits high accuracy in predicting maximum θe > 347 K. The median hit rate for maximum θe > 347 K is > 0.60, while the median false alarm rate is ≈ 0.08.

Using nudging to improve global-regional dynamic consistency in limited-area climate modeling: What should we nudge?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omrani, Hiba; Drobinski, Philippe; Dubos, Thomas

2015-03-01

Regional climate modelling sometimes requires that the regional model be nudged towards the large-scale driving data to avoid the development of inconsistencies between them. These inconsistencies are known to produce large surface temperature and rainfall artefacts. Therefore, it is essential to maintain the synoptic circulation within the simulation domain consistent with the synoptic circulation at the domain boundaries. Nudging techniques, initially developed for data assimilation purposes, are increasingly used in regional climate modeling and offer a workaround to this issue. In this context, several questions on the "optimal" use of nudging are still open. In this study we focus on a specific question which is: What variable should we nudge? in order to maintain the consistencies between the regional model and the driving fields as much as possible. For that, a "Big Brother Experiment", where a reference atmospheric state is known, is conducted using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model over the Euro-Mediterranean region. A set of 22 3-month simulations is performed with different sets of nudged variables and nudging options (no nudging, indiscriminate nudging, spectral nudging) for summer and winter. The results show that nudging clearly improves the model capacity to reproduce the reference fields. However the skill scores depend on the set of variables used to nudge the regional climate simulations. Nudging the tropospheric horizontal wind is by far the key variable to nudge to simulate correctly surface temperature and wind, and rainfall. To a lesser extent, nudging tropospheric temperature also contributes to significantly improve the simulations. Indeed, nudging tropospheric wind or temperature directly impacts the simulation of the tropospheric geopotential height and thus the synoptic scale atmospheric circulation. Nudging moisture improves the precipitation but the impact on the other fields (wind and temperature) is not significant. As an immediate consequence, nudging tropospheric wind, temperature and moisture in WRF gives by far the best results with respect to the Big-Brother simulation. However, we noticed that a residual bias of the geopotential height persists due to a negative surface pressure anomaly which suggests that surface pressure is the missing quantity to nudge. Nudging the geopotential has no discernible effect. Finally, it should be noted that the proposed strategy ensures a dynamical consistency between the driving field and the simulated small-scale field but it does not ensure the best "observed" fine scale field because of the possible impact of incorrect driving large-scale field.

The Asymmetric Continental Shelf Wave in Response to the Synoptic Wind Burst in a Semienclosed Double-Shelf Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, Lixin; Lin, Xiaopei; Hetland, Robert D.; Guo, Jingsong

2018-01-01

The primary goal of this study is to investigate the asymmetric structure of continental shelf wave in a semienclosed double-shelf basin, such as the Yellow Sea. Supported by in situ observations and realistic numerical simulations, it is found that in the Yellow Sea, the shelf wave response to the synoptic wind forcing does not match the mathematically symmetric solution of classic double-shelf wave theory, but rather exhibits a westward shift. To study the formation mechanism of this asymmetric structure, an idealized model was used and two sets of experiments were conducted. The results confirm that the asymmetric structure is due to the existence of a topographic waveguide connecting both shelves. For a semienclosed basin, such as the Yellow Sea, a connection at the end of the basin eliminates the potential vorticity barrier between the two shelves and hence plays a role as a connecting waveguide for shelf waves. This waveguide enables the shelf wave to propagate from one shelf to the other shelf and produces the asymmetric response in sea level and upwind flow evolutions.

On unravelling mechanism of interplay between cloud and large scale circulation: a grey area in climate science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De, S.; Agarwal, N. K.; Hazra, Anupam; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Sahai, A. K.

2018-04-01

The interaction between cloud and large scale circulation is much less explored area in climate science. Unfolding the mechanism of coupling between these two parameters is imperative for improved simulation of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and to reduce imprecision in climate sensitivity of global climate model. This work has made an effort to explore this mechanism with CFSv2 climate model experiments whose cloud has been modified by changing the critical relative humidity (CRH) profile of model during ISM. Study reveals that the variable CRH in CFSv2 has improved the nonlinear interactions between high and low frequency oscillations in wind field (revealed as internal dynamics of monsoon) and modulates realistically the spatial distribution of interactions over Indian landmass during the contrasting monsoon season compared to the existing CRH profile of CFSv2. The lower tropospheric wind error energy in the variable CRH simulation of CFSv2 appears to be minimum due to the reduced nonlinear convergence of error to the planetary scale range from long and synoptic scales (another facet of internal dynamics) compared to as observed from other CRH experiments in normal and deficient monsoons. Hence, the interplay between cloud and large scale circulation through CRH may be manifested as a change in internal dynamics of ISM revealed from scale interactive quasi-linear and nonlinear kinetic energy exchanges in frequency as well as in wavenumber domain during the monsoon period that eventually modify the internal variance of CFSv2 model. Conversely, the reduced wind bias and proper modulation of spatial distribution of scale interaction between the synoptic and low frequency oscillations improve the eastward and northward extent of water vapour flux over Indian landmass that in turn give feedback to the realistic simulation of cloud condensates attributing improved ISM rainfall in CFSv2.

From bottles to stream reaches and networks: Consequences of scale in how we interpret the function of freshwaters in the carbon cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hotchkiss, E. R.

2017-12-01

Freshwater biological processes can alter the quantity and quality of organic carbon (OC) inputs from land before they are transported downstream, but the relative role of hydrologic transport and in-stream processing is still not well quantified at the scale of fluvial networks. Despite much research on the role of biology and hydrology in governing the form and fate of C in inland waters, conclusions about the function of freshwater ecosystems in modifying OC still largely depend on where we draw our ecosystem boundaries, i.e., the spatial scale of measurements used to assess OC transformations. Here I review freshwater OC uptake rates derived from bioassay incubations, synoptic modeling, reach-scale experiments, and ecosystem OC spiraling estimates. Median OC uptake velocities from standard bioassay incubations (0.02 m/d) and synoptic modeling (0.04 m/d) are 1-2 orders of magnitude lower than reach-scale experimental DOC additions and ecosystem OC spiraling estimates (2.2 and 0.27 m/d, respectively) in streams and rivers. Together, ecosystem metabolism and OC fluxes can be used to estimate the distance OC travels before being consumed and respired as CO2 through biological processes (i.e., OC spiraling), allowing for a more mechanistic understanding of the role of ecosystem processes and hydrologic fluxes in modifying downstream OC transport. Beyond the reach scale, data from stream network and stream-lake-river modeling simulations show how we may use linked sampling sites within networks to better understand the integrated sources and fate of OC in freshwaters. We currently underestimate the role of upstream processes in contributing to downstream fluxes: moving from single-ecosystem comparisons to linked-ecosystem simulations increases the contribution of in situ OC processing to CO2 emissions from 30% to >40%. Insights from literature reviews, ecosystem process measurements, and model simulations provide a framework for future considerations of integrated C transport, transformations, and fate when scaling patterns and processes in inland waters.

Moist synoptic transport of carbon dioxide along midlatitude storm tracks, transport uncertainty, and implications for carbon dioxide flux estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parazoo, Nicholas C.

Mass transport along moist isentropic surfaces on baroclinic waves represents an important component of the atmospheric heat engine that operates between the equator and poles. This is also an important vehicle for tracer transport, and is correlated with ecosystem metabolism because large-scale baroclinicity and photosynthesis are both driven seasonally by variations in solar radiation. In this research, I pursue a dynamical framework for explaining atmospheric transport of CO2 by synoptic weather systems at middle and high latitudes. A global model of atmospheric tracer transport, driven by meteorological analysis in combination with a detailed description of surface fluxes, is used to create time varying CO2 distributions in the atmosphere. Simulated mass fluxes of CO2 are then decomposed into a zonal monthly mean component and deviations from the monthly mean in space and time. Mass fluxes of CO2 are described on moist isentropic surfaces to represent frontal transport along storm tracks. Forward simulations suggest that synoptic weather systems transport large amounts of CO2 north and south in northern mid-latitudes, up to 1 PgC month-1 during winter when baroclinic wave activity peaks. During boreal winter when northern plants respire, warm moist air, high in CO2, is swept upward and poleward along the east side of baroclinic waves and injected into the polar vortex, while cold dry air, low in CO 2, that had been transported into the polar vortex earlier in the year is advected equatorward. These synoptic eddies act to strongly reduce seasonality of CO2 in the biologically active mid-latitudes by 50% of that implied by local net ecosystem exchange while correspondingly amplifying seasonality in the Arctic. Transport along stormtracks is correlated with rising, moist, cloudy air, which systematically hides this CO2 transport from satellite observing systems. Meridional fluxes of CO2 are of comparable magnitude as surface exchange of CO2 in mid-latitudes, and thus require careful consideration in (inverse) modeling of the carbon cycle. Because synoptic transport of CO2 by frontal systems and moist processes is generally unobserved and poorly represented in global models, it may be a source of error for inverse flux estimates. Uncertainty in CO 2 transport by synoptic eddies is investigated using a global model driven by four reanalysis products from the Goddard EOS Data Assimilation System for 2005. Eddy transport is found to be highly variable between model analysis, with significant seasonal differences of up to 0.2 PgC, which represents up to 50% of fossil fuel emissions. The variations are caused primarily by differences in grid spacing and vertical mixing by moist convection and PBL turbulence. To test for aliasing of transport bias into inverse flux estimates, synthetic satellite data is generated using a model at 50 km global resolution and inverted using a global model run with coarse grid transport. An ensemble filtering method called the Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Filter (MLEF) is used to optimize fluxes. Flux estimates are found to be highly sensitive to transport biases at pixel and continental scale, with errors of up to 0.5 PgC year-1 in Europe and North America.

Integrated synoptic surveys of the hydrodynamics and water-quality distributions in two Lake Michigan rivermouth mixing zones using an autonomous underwater vehicle and a manned boat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jackson, P. Ryan; Reneau, Paul C.

2014-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the National Monitoring Network for U.S. Coastal Waters and Tributaries, launched a pilot project in 2010 to determine the value of integrated synoptic surveys of rivermouths using autonomous underwater vehicle technology in response to a call for rivermouth research, which includes study domains that envelop both the fluvial and lacustrine boundaries of the rivermouth mixing zone. The pilot project was implemented at two Lake Michigan rivermouths with largely different scales, hydrodynamics, and settings, but employing primarily the same survey techniques and methods. The Milwaukee River Estuary Area of Concern (AOC) survey included measurements in the lower 2 to 3 miles of the Milwaukee, Menomonee, and Kinnickinnic Rivers and inner and outer Milwaukee Harbor. This estuary is situated in downtown Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and is the most populated basin that flows directly into Lake Michigan. In contrast, the Manitowoc rivermouth has a relatively small harbor separating the rivermouth from Lake Michigan, and the Manitowoc River Watershed is primarily agricultural. Both the Milwaukee and Manitowoc rivermouths are unregulated and allow free exchange of water with Lake Michigan. This pilot study of the Milwaukee River Estuary and Manitowoc rivermouth using an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) paired with a manned survey boat resulted in high spatial and temporal resolution datasets of basic water-quality parameter distributions and hydrodynamics. The AUV performed well in these environments and was found primarily well-suited for harbor and nearshore surveys of three-dimensional water-quality distributions. Both case studies revealed that the use of a manned boat equipped with an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and multiparameter sonde (and an optional flow-through water-quality sampling system) was the best option for riverine surveys. To ensure that the most accurate and highest resolution velocity data were collected concurrently with the AUV surveys, the pilot study used a manned boat equipped with an ADCP. Combining the AUV and manned boat datasets resulted in datasets that are essentially continuous from the fluvial through the lacustrine zones of a rivermouth. Whereas the pilot studies were completed during low flows on the tributaries, completion of surveys at higher flows using the same techniques is possible, but the use of the AUV would be limited to areas with relatively low velocities (less than 2 feet per second) such as the harbors and nearshore zones of Lake Michigan. Overall, this pilot study aimed at evaluation of AUV technology for integrated synoptic surveys of rivermouth mixing zones was successful, and the techniques and methods employed in this pilot study should be transferrable to other sites with similar success. The use of the AUV provided significant time savings compared to traditional sampling techniques. For example, the survey of outer Milwaukee Harbor using the AUV required less than 7 hours for approximately 600 profiles compared to the 150 hours it would have taken using traditional methods in a manned boat (a 95 percent reduction in man-hours). The integrated datasets resulting from the AUV and manned survey boat are of high value and present a picture of the mixing and hydrodynamics of these highly dynamic, highly variable rivermouth mixing zones from the relatively well-mixed fluvial environment through the rivermouth to the stratified lacustrine receiving body of Lake Michigan. Such datasets not only allow researchers to understand more about the physical processes occurring in these rivermouths, but they provide high spatial resolution data required for interpretation of relations between disparate point samples and calibration and validation of numerical models.

Geochemical Data for Upper Mineral Creek, Colorado, Under Existing Ambient Conditions and During an Experimental pH Modification, August 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runkel, Robert L.; Kimball, Briant A.; Steiger, Judy I.; Walton-Day, Katherine

2009-01-01

Mineral Creek, an acid mine drainage stream in south-western Colorado, was the subject of a water-quality study that employed a paired synoptic approach. Under the paired synoptic approach, two synoptic sampling campaigns were conducted on the same study reach. The initial synoptic campaign, conducted August 22, 2005, documented stream-water quality under existing ambient conditions. A second synoptic campaign, conducted August 24, 2005, documented stream-water quality during a pH-modification experiment that elevated the pH of Mineral Creek. The experimental pH modification was designed to determine the potential reductions in dissolved constituent concentrations that would result from the implementation of an active treatment system for acid mine drainage. During both synoptic sampling campaigns, a solution containing lithium bromide was injected continuously to allow for the calculation of streamflow using the tracer-dilution method. Synoptic water-quality samples were collected from 30 stream sites and 11 inflow locations along the 2-kilometer study reach. Data from the study provide spatial profiles of pH, concentration, and streamflow under both existing and experimentally-altered conditions. This report presents the data obtained August 21-24, 2005, as well as the methods used for sample collection and data analysis.

Impacts of northern Tibetan Plateau on East Asian summer rainfall via modulating midlatitude transient eddies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Jiechun; Xu, Haiming; Shi, Ning; Zhang, Leying; Ma, Jing

2017-08-01

Roles of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in forming and changing the seasonal Asian climate system have been widely explored. However, little is known about modulation effects of the TP on extratropical transient eddies (TEs) and subsequent synoptic responses of the East Asian rainfall. In this study, the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 coupled with a slab ocean model is employed to highlight the important role of the TP in regulating the upper-tropospheric transient wave train. Comparison between sensitivity experiments with and without the TP shows that the northern TP excites a strong anomalous anticyclone, which shifts the upper-level East Asian westerly jet northward and helps transfer barotropic and baroclinic energy from the mean flow to the synoptic TE flow. The transient wave train is primarily shifted northward by northern TP and is forced to propagate southeastward along the eastern flank of the TP until reaching eastern China. Before the strengthening of monsoonal southerlies, the TP-modulated transient wave train cools the troposphere, which decreases the static stability over northern China. Meanwhile, the associated anomalous warm advection induces ascending motion, leading to excessive rainfall by releasing unstable energy as the southerly strengthens. Due to the southeastward propagation of the wave train, anomalous heavy rainfall subsequently appears over eastern China from north to south, which increases day-to-day rainfall variation in this region. Additionally, occurrence of this upper-tropospheric transient wave train associated with low-level southerly peak is substantially increased by northern TP.

Streamflow and water-quality conditions including geologic sources and processes affecting selenium loading in the Toll Gate Creek watershed, Aurora, Arapahoe County, Colorado, 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paschke, Suzanne S.; Runkel, Robert L.; Walton-Day, Katherine; Kimball, Briant A.; Schaffrath, Keelin R.

2013-01-01

Toll Gate Creek is a perennial stream draining a suburban area in Aurora, Colorado, where selenium concentrations have consistently exceeded the State of Colorado aquatic-life standard for selenium of 4.6 micrograms per liter since the early 2000s. In cooperation with the City of Aurora, Colorado, Utilities Department, a synoptic water-quality study was performed along an 18-kilometer reach of Toll Gate Creek extending from downstream from Quincy Reservoir to the confluence with Sand Creek to develop a detailed understanding of streamflow and concentrations and loads of selenium in Toll Gate Creek. Streamflow and surface-water quality were characterized for summer low-flow conditions (July–August 2007) using four spatially overlapping synoptic-sampling subreaches. Mass-balance methods were applied to the synoptic-sampling and tracer-injection results to estimate streamflow and develop spatial profiles of concentration and load for selenium and other chemical constituents in Toll Gate Creek surface water. Concurrent groundwater sampling determined concentrations of selenium and other chemical constituents in groundwater in areas surrounding the Toll Gate Creek study reaches. Multivariate principal-component analysis was used to group samples and to suggest common sources for dissolved selenium and major ions. Hydrogen and oxygen stable-isotope ratios, groundwater-age interpretations, and chemical analysis of water-soluble paste extractions from core samples are presented, and interpretation of the hydrologic and geochemical data support conclusions regarding geologic sources of selenium and the processes affecting selenium loading in the Toll Gate Creek watershed.

Numerical Modeling of Artificial Recharge: Determining Spatial/Temporal Sampling Resolution to Quantify Infiltration Rates and Effective Hydraulic Conductivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glose, T. J.; Hausner, M. B.; Lowry, C.

2016-12-01

The accurate, fine scale quantification of groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interactions over large expanses in hydrologic systems is a fundamental need in order to accurately characterize critical zones of biogeochemical transformation and fluxes, as well as to provide insight into near-surface geologic heterogeneity. Paired fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing (FO-DTS) is a tool that is capable of synoptically sampling hydrologic systems, allowing GW-SW interactions to be examined at a fine scale over large distances. Within managed aquifer recharge (MAR) sites, differential recharge dynamics controlled by bed clogging and subsurface heterogeneity dictate the effectiveness of these sites at infiltrating water. Numerical modeling indicates that the use of paired FO-DTS in an MAR site can provide accurate quantification of flux at the GW-SW interface, as well as provide insight to the areal extent of geologic heterogeneity in the subsurface. However, the lateral and vertical separation of the fiber-optic cables is of vital importance. Here we present a 2-D, fully coupled groundwater flow and heat transport model with prescribed heterogeneity. Following a forward modeling approach, realizations simulating varying fiber-optic cable positioning, differential bed clogging, and hydraulic conductivity variability were analyzed over a suite of scenarios. The results from the model were then used as observations to calculate groundwater recharge rates and calibration targets for an inverse model to estimate subsurface heterogeneity.

Dynamical Influence and Operational Impacts of an Extreme Mediterranean Cold Surge

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

over 45 cm of snowfall in Souda Bay, Crete, which significantly impacted operations at Naval Support Activity Souda Bay. The extratropical wave...cold surge event and its dependence on the upstream synoptic scale events. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Extratropical Cyclone, Souda Bay...Activity Souda Bay. The extratropical wave associated with the cold surge could be classified as a classic life-cycle 1 wave break. The wave-breaking

Synoptic-scale fire weather conditions in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayasaka, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Hiroshi L.; Bieniek, Peter A.

2016-09-01

Recent concurrent widespread fires in Alaska are evaluated to assess their associated synoptic-scale weather conditions. Several periods of high fire activity from 2003 to 2015 were identified using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) hotspot data by considering the number of daily hotspots and their continuity. Fire weather conditions during the top six periods of high fire activity in the fire years of 2004, 2005, 2009, and 2015 were analyzed using upper level (500 hPa) and near surface level (1000 hPa) atmospheric reanalysis data. The top four fire-periods occurred under similar unique high-pressure fire weather conditions related to Rossby wave breaking (RWB). Following the ignition of wildfires, fire weather conditions related to RWB events typically result in two hotspot peaks occurring before and after high-pressure systems move from south to north across Alaska. A ridge in the Gulf of Alaska resulted in southwesterly wind during the first hotspot peak. After the high-pressure system moved north under RWB conditions, the Beaufort Sea High developed and resulted in relatively strong easterly wind in Interior Alaska and a second (largest) hotspot peak during each fire period. Low-pressure-related fire weather conditions occurring under cyclogenesis in the Arctic also resulted in high fire activity under southwesterly wind with a single large hot-spot peak.

Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pantillon, Florian; Knippertz, Peter; Corsmeier, Ulrich

2017-10-01

New insights into the synoptic-scale predictability of 25 severe European winter storms of the 1995-2015 period are obtained using the homogeneous ensemble reforecast dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The predictability of the storms is assessed with different metrics including (a) the track and intensity to investigate the storms' dynamics and (b) the Storm Severity Index to estimate the impact of the associated wind gusts. The storms are well predicted by the whole ensemble up to 2-4 days ahead. At longer lead times, the number of members predicting the observed storms decreases and the ensemble average is not clearly defined for the track and intensity. The Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails are therefore computed from the deviation of the ensemble from the model climate. Based on these indices, the model has some skill in forecasting the area covered by extreme wind gusts up to 10 days, which indicates a clear potential for early warnings. However, large variability is found between the individual storms. The poor predictability of outliers appears related to their physical characteristics such as explosive intensification or small size. Longer datasets with more cases would be needed to further substantiate these points.

Cloudiness over the Amazon rainforest: Meteorology and thermodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collow, Allison B. Marquardt; Miller, Mark A.; Trabachino, Lynne C.

2016-07-01

Comprehensive meteorological observations collected during GOAmazon2014/15 using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility no. 1 and assimilated observations from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 are used to document the seasonal cycle of cloudiness, thermodynamics, and precipitation above the Amazon rainforest. The reversal of synoptic-scale vertical motions modulates the transition between the wet and dry seasons. Ascending moist air during the wet season originates near the surface of the Atlantic Ocean and is advected into the Amazon rainforest, where it experiences convergence and, ultimately, precipitates. The dry season is characterized by weaker winds and synoptic-scale subsidence with little or no moisture convergence accompanying moisture advection. This combination results in the drying of the midtroposphere during June through October as indicated by a decrease in liquid water path, integrated water, and the vertical profile of water vapor mixing ratio. The vertical profile of cloud fraction exhibits a relatively consistent decline in cloud fraction from the lifting condensation level (LCL) to the freezing level where a minimum is observed, unlike many other tropical regions. Coefficients of determination between the LCL and cloud fractional coverage suggest a relatively robust relationship between the LCL and cloudiness beneath 5 km during the dry season (R2 = 0.42) but a weak relationship during the wet season (0.12).

Forecasting Lightning at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, Winfred; Wheeler, Mark; Roeder, William

2005-01-01

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a set of statistical forecast equations that provide a probability of lightning occurrence on Kennedy Space Center (KSC) I Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) for the day during the warm season (May September). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) forecasters at CCAFS in Florida include a probability of lightning occurrence in their daily 24-hour and weekly planning forecasts, which are briefed at 1100 UTC (0700 EDT). This information is used for general scheduling of operations at CCAFS and KSC. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts for the KSC/CCAFS area during Shuttle flight operations. Much of the current lightning probability forecast at both groups is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data. The objective tool currently available is the Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI, Neumann 1971), developed specifically for the KSCICCAFS area over 30 years ago. However, recent studies have shown that 1-day persistence provides a better forecast than the NPTI, indicating that the NPTI needed to be upgraded or replaced. Because they require a tool that provides a reliable estimate of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast, the 45 WS forecasters requested that the AMU develop a new lightning probability forecast tool using recent data and more sophisticated techniques now possible through more computing power than that available over 30 years ago. The equation development incorporated results from two research projects that investigated causes of lightning occurrence near KSCICCAFS and over the Florida peninsula. One proved that logistic regression outperformed the linear regression method used in NPTI, even when the same predictors were used. The other study found relationships between large scale flow regimes and spatial lightning distributions over Florida. Lightning, probabilities based on these flow regimes were used as candidate predictors in the equation development. Fifteen years (1 989-2003) of warm season data were used to develop the forecast equations. The data sources included a local network of cloud-to-ground lightning sensors called the Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS), 1200 UTC Florida synoptic soundings, and the 1000 UTC CCAFS sounding. Data from CGLSS were used to determine lightning occurrence for each day. The 1200 UTC soundings were used to calculate the synoptic-scale flow regimes and the 1000 UTC soundings were used to calculate local stability parameters, which were used as candidate predictors of lightning occurrence. Five logistic regression forecast equations were created through careful selection and elimination of the candidate predictors. The resulting equations contain five to six predictors each. Results from four performance tests indicated that the equations showed an increase in skill over several standard forecasting methods, good reliability, an ability to distinguish between non-lightning and lightning days, and good accuracy measures and skill scores. Given the overall good performance the 45 WS requested that the equations be transitioned to operations and added to the current set of tools used to determine the daily lightning probability of occurrence.

A study of the 21 March 2012 tornadic quasi linear convective system in Catalonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bech, Joan; Arús, Joan; Castán, Salvador; Pineda, Nicolau; Rigo, Tomeu; Montanyà, Joan; van der Velde, Oscar

2015-05-01

This study presents a description of a quasi linear convective system that took place in Catalonia (NE Spain) on 21 March 2012 producing heavy rainfall, moderate lightning activity and a weak tornado in the village of Ivars d'Urgell around 19 UTC after local sunset. A post-event survey indicated EF0 and EF1 damage in houses of the village - roofs and ceilings, broken windows, fences and walls and trees knocked down - along a track approximately 4 km long and about 20 m wide. Doppler radar observations show that the parent thunderstorm that spawned the tornado was one of a series that developed along a convective line that moved from S to N, initiating convective activity in terms of precipitation and lightning in the Mediterranean Sea and moving inland in S Catalonia (Tarragona and Salou coastal areas, producing local flash floods). Convective activity remained several hours with series of thunderstorms developing along the same paths. The synoptic situation was dominated by a high pressure ridge extending from northern Africa to central Europe, with a closed maximum sea level pressure area around 1036 hPa over northern France, southern Germany and Austria. On the other hand a relative low pressure area seen on 850 hPa and upper levels was present over the Iberian Peninsula, favouring a southern maritime flow from the Mediterranean between the forward part of the low pressure area and the high pressure system which blocked the advance of the low to the east. In the study we examine both the synoptic environment and storm scale observations with Doppler radar and total lightning data (cloud to ground and intracloud flashes) that lead to this cool-season severe convective event which is remarkable given the fact that, unlike in this case, most reported tornadoes in the region occur during the warm season (with peaks in August and September) and during daylight hours (6 to 18 UTC).

Synoptic and chemical evolution of the Antarctic vortex in winter and spring, 1987

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tuck, A. F.

1988-01-01

The dynamical evolution of the vortex at least up to 50 mb is dominated by synoptic scales in the troposphere. In particular, there is a clear response when poleward extension of tropospheric anticyclones from latitudes of 40 and 50 S to 70 and 80 S occurs. This response is evident in isentropic potential vorticity maps, TOMS ozone fields and SAM II polar stratospheric clouds. An important feature of the high latitude Southern Hemisphere lower stratosphere is a transition at potential temperatures in the 390 to 400 K range. This transition, the vortopause, is clearly marked in aircraft profiles of O3, H2O, N2O and ClO at latitudes 68 to 72 S near the Antarctic peninsula, and also cross-sections of potential vorticity and potential temperature; above it, the isopleths are more closely spaced than below it. The aircraft measurements of H2O, O3, NO sub y, N2O, ClO, and whole air data are examined in material coordinates, theta and P sub theta, backed up by trajectory analysis. The evolution of the chemical mixing ratios is examined in these coordinates as a function of time from mid-August to late September. Conclusions are drawn about the rates of change and their causes. The meteorological and aircraft data are examined for evidence of the following kinds of motion with respect to the vortex: ingress of air aloft, subsidence, peeling off of air to lower latitudes, and folding of the vortopause. Conclusions are presented regarding the evidence for a chemical sink of ozone above and below theta = 400 K, and whether the vortex has a mass flow through it, or if the chemical sink operates on a fixed mass of air. Implications for mid-latitudes are briefly considered in the light of the conclusions.

Analysis of southeast Australian zooplankton observations of 1938-42 using synoptic oceanographic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baird, Mark E.; Everett, Jason D.; Suthers, Iain M.

2011-03-01

The research vessel Warreen obtained 1742 planktonic samples along the continental shelf and slope of southeast Australia from 1938-42, representing the earliest spatially and temporally resolved zooplankton data from Australian marine waters. In this paper, Warreen observations along the southeast Australian seaboard from 28°S to 38°S are interpreted based on synoptic meteorological and oceanographic conditions and ocean climatologies. Meteorological conditions are based on the NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis Project; oceanographic conditions use Warreen hydrological observations, and the ocean climatology is the CSIRO Atlas of Regional Seas. The Warreen observations were undertaken in waters on average 0.45 °C cooler than the climatological average, and included the longest duration El Niño of the 20th century. In northern New South Wales (NSW), week time-scale events dominate zooplankton response. In August 1940 an unusual winter upwelling event occurred in northern NSW driven by a stronger than average East Australian Current (EAC) and anomalous northerly winds that resulted in high salp and larvacean abundance. In January 1941 a strong upwelling event between 28° and 33°S resulted in a filament of upwelled water being advected south and alongshore, which was low in zooplankton biovolume. In southern NSW a seasonal cycle in physical and planktonic characteristics is observed. In January 1941 the poleward extension of the EAC was strong, advecting more tropical tunicate species southward. Zooplankton abundance and distribution on the continental shelf and slope are more dependent on weekly to monthly timescales on local oceanographic and meteorological conditions than continental-scale interannual trends. The interpretation of historical zooplankton observations of the waters off southeast Australia for the purpose of quantifying anthropogenic impacts will be improved with the use of regional hindcasts of synoptic ocean and atmospheric weather that can explain some of the physically forced natural variability.

The South ``West'' Pacific Convergence Zone: Large-scale feedback on atmospheric subsidence to the east

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widlansky, M. J.; Webster, P. J.; Hoyos, C.

2010-12-01

Three semi-permanent convective cloud bands exist in the Southern Hemisphere extending southeastward from the equator, through the tropics, and into the subtropics. The most prominent of these features occurs in the South Pacific during summer and is referred to as the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). Similar cloud bands, with less intensity, exist in the South Indian and Atlantic basins. To the east of each convective zone is a large-scale region of atmospheric subsidence. We attempt to explain the physical mechanisms that promote the diagonal orientation of the SPCZ and also teleconnections that may exist with stratocumulus cloud cover in the southeastern Pacific. It is argued that slowly varying sea surface temperature patterns produce upper tropospheric wind fields that vary substantially in longitude (∂U/∂x). Regions where 200 hPa zonal winds decrease with longitude (i.e., negative zonal stretching deformation, or ∂U/∂x<0) reduce the group speed of the eastward propagating synoptic (3-6 day period) Rossby waves and locally increase the wave energy density. Such a region of wave accumulation occurs in the vicinity of the SPCZ (see Figure), thus providing a hypothesis for the diagonal orientation and a physical basis for earlier observations that the zone traps eastward propagating synoptic disturbances. Controlled numerical experiments and composites of observed life cycles of synoptic waves confirm that disturbances slow in the SPCZ. From the hypothesis comes a more general theory accounting for the SPCZ’s spatial orientation and the lack of disturbances to the east. December-February climatology of 200 hPa zonal winds (shading) and negative zonal stretching deformation (red contours). Large black box located at 20°S-35°S, 165°W-135°W encloses the diagonal region of the SPCZ. 240 W m-2 OLR contour outlined by blue lines.

Feature analysis and primary causes of pre-flood season "cumulative effect" of torrential rain over South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Qu-cheng; Wang, Qi-guang; Qiao, Shao-bo; Feng, Guo-lin

2018-01-01

When persistent rainfall occurs frequently over South China, meso-scale and micro-scale synoptic systems persist and expand in space and time and eventually form meso-scale and long-scale weather processes. The accumulation of multiple torrential rain processes is defined as a "cumulative effect" of torrential rain (CETR) event. In this paper, daily reanalysis datasets collected by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP-DOE) during 1979-2014 are used to study the anomalous features and causes of heavy CETR events over South China. The results show that there is a significant difference in the spatial distribution of the heavy CETR events. Based on the center position of the CETR, the middle region displayed middle-region-heavy CETR events while the western region displayed west-region-heavy CETR events. El Niño events in the previous period (December, January, February, March (DJFM)) are major extra-forcing factors of middle-region-heavy CETR events, which is beneficial for the continuous, anomalous Philippine Sea anticyclone and strengthens the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), extending it more westward than normal. The primary water vapor source for precipitation in middle-region-heavy CETR events is the Tropical Western Pacific Ocean. The major extra-forcing factor of a west-region-heavy CETR is the negative anomaly in the southern Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) during the previous period (DJFM). This factor is beneficial for strengthening the cross-equatorial flow and westerly winds from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea (SCS) and early SCS summer monsoon onset. The primary water vapor source of precipitation in the west-region-heavy CETR is the southern TIO.

Simulation of Atmospheric Dispersion of Elevated Releases from Point Sources in Mississippi Gulf Coast with Different Meteorological Data

PubMed Central

Yerramilli, Anjaneyulu; Srinivas, Challa Venkata; Dasari, Hari Prasad; Tuluri, Francis; White, Loren D.; Baham, Julius M.; Young, John H.; Hughes, Robert; Patrick, Chuck; Hardy, Mark G.; Swanier, Shelton J.

2009-01-01

Atmospheric dispersion calculations are made using the HYSPLIT Particle Dispersion Model for studying the transport and dispersion of air-borne releases from point elevated sources in the Mississippi Gulf coastal region. Simulations are performed separately with three meteorological data sets having different spatial and temporal resolution for a typical summer period in 1–3 June 2006 representing a weak synoptic condition. The first two data are the NCEP global and regional analyses (FNL, EDAS) while the third is a meso-scale simulation generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with nested domains at a fine resolution of 4 km. The meso-scale model results show significant temporal and spatial variations in the meteorological fields as a result of the combined influences of the land-sea breeze circulation, the large scale flow field and diurnal alteration in the mixing depth across the coast. The model predicted SO2 concentrations showed that the trajectory and the concentration distribution varied in the three cases of input data. While calculations with FNL data show an overall higher correlation, there is a significant positive bias during daytime and negative bias during night time. Calculations with EDAS fields are significantly below the observations during both daytime and night time though plume behavior follows the coastal circulation. The diurnal plume behavior and its distribution are better simulated using the mesoscale WRF meteorological fields in the coastal environment suggesting its suitability for pollution dispersion impact assessment in the local scale. Results of different cases of simulation, comparison with observations, correlation and bias in each case are presented. PMID:19440433

Emergency preparedness for the accidental release of radionuclides from the Uljin Nuclear Power Plant in Korea.

PubMed

Park, Soon-Ung; Lee, In-Hye; Joo, Seung Jin; Ju, Jae-Won

2017-12-01

Site specific radionuclide dispersion databases were archived for the emergency response to the hypothetical releases of 137 Cs from the Uljin nuclear power plant in Korea. These databases were obtained with the horizontal resolution of 1.5 km in the local domain centered the power plant site by simulations of the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM) with the Unified Model (UM)-Local Data Assimilation Prediction System (LDAPS). The Eulerian Dispersion Model-East Asia (EDM-EA) with the UM-Global Data Assimilation Prediction System (UM-GDAPS) meteorological models was used to get dispersion databases in the regional domain. The LPDM model was performed for a year with a 5-day interval yielding 72 synoptic time-scale cases in a year. For each case hourly mean near surface concentrations, hourly mean column integrated concentrations, hourly total depositions for 5 consecutive days were archived by the LPDM model in the local domain and by the EDM-EA model in the regional domain of Asia. Among 72 synoptic cases in a year the worst synoptic case that showed the highest mean surface concentration averaged for 5 days in the LPDM model domain was chosen to illustrate the emergency preparedness to the hypothetical accident at the site. The simulated results by the LPDM model with the 137 Cs emission rate of the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident for the first 5-day period were found to be able to provide prerequisite information for the emergency response to the early phase of the accident whereas those of the EDM-EA model could provide information required for the environmental impact assessment of the accident in the regional domain. The archived site-specific database of 72 synoptic cases in a year could have a great potential to be used as a prognostic information on the emergency preparedness for the early phase of accident. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Flow Regime Lightning and Sounding Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, Winifred; Short, David; Wolkmer, Matthew; Sharp, David; Spratt, Scott

2006-01-01

Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in East Central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Currently, the forecasters create each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent is to improve consistency between forecasters while allowing them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast, ultimately benefiting the end-users of the product. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) in which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities, or number of strikes per specified area. The soundings used to determine the flow regimes were taken at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), FL, and the lightning data for the strike densities came from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at FSU and NWS TAE provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU.

Using Flow Regime Lightning and Sounding Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, Winifred; Short, David; Volkmer, Matthew; Sharp, David; Spratt, Scott

2007-01-01

Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (httl://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in East Central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Until recently, the forecasters created each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent was to improve consistency between forecasters while allowing them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) in which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities, or number of strikes per specified area. The soundings used to determine the flow regimes were taken at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), FL, and the lightning data for the strike densities came from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at FSU and NWS TAE provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU.

Ways of Viewing Pictorial Plasticity

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The plastic effect is historically used to denote various forms of stereopsis. The vivid impression of depth often associated with binocular stereopsis can also be achieved in other ways, for example, using a synopter. Accounts of this go back over a hundred years. These ways of viewing all aim to diminish sensorial evidence that the picture is physically flat. Although various viewing modes have been proposed in the literature, their effects have never been compared. In the current study, we compared three viewing modes: monocular blur, synoptic viewing, and free viewing (using a placebo synopter). By designing a physical embodiment that was indistinguishable for the three experimental conditions, we kept observers naïve with respect to the differences between them; 197 observers participated in an experiment where the three viewing modes were compared by performing a rating task. Results indicate that synoptic viewing causes the largest plastic effect. Monocular blur scores lower than synoptic viewing but is still rated significantly higher than the baseline conditions. The results strengthen the idea that synoptic viewing is not due to a placebo effect. Furthermore, monocular blur has been verified for the first time as a way of experiencing the plastic effect, although the effect is smaller than synoptic viewing. We discuss the results with respect to the theoretical basis for the plastic effect. We show that current theories are not described with sufficient details to explain the differences we found. PMID:28491270

Development of a synoptic MRI report for primary rectal cancer.

PubMed

Spiegle, Gillian; Leon-Carlyle, Marisa; Schmocker, Selina; Fruitman, Mark; Milot, Laurent; Gagliardi, Anna R; Smith, Andy J; McLeod, Robin S; Kennedy, Erin D

2009-12-02

Although magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is an important imaging modality for pre-operative staging and surgical planning of rectal cancer, to date there has been little investigation on the completeness and overall quality of MRI reports. This is important because optimal patient care depends on the quality of the MRI report and clear communication of these reports to treating physicians. Previous work has shown that the use of synoptic pathology reports improves the quality of pathology reports and communication between physicians. The aims of this project are to develop a synoptic MRI report for rectal cancer and determine the enablers and barriers toward the implementation of a synoptic MRI report for rectal cancer in the clinical setting. A three-step Delphi process with an expert panel will extract the key criteria for the MRI report to guide pre-operative chemoradiation and surgical planning following a review of the literature, and a synoptic template will be developed. Furthermore, standardized qualitative research methods will be used to conduct interviews with radiologists to determine the enablers and barriers to the implementation and sustainability of the synoptic MRI report in the clinic setting. Synoptic MRI reports for rectal cancer are currently not used in North America and may improve the overall quality of MRI report and communication between physicians. This may, in turn, lead to improved patient care and outcomes for rectal cancer patients.

Interaction between local and regional pollution during Escompte 2001: impact on surface ozone concentrations (IOP2a and 2b)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cousin, F.; Tulet, P.; Rosset, R.

2005-03-01

Escompte, a European programme which took place in the Marseille region in June-July 2001, has been designed as an exhaustive database to be used for the development and validation of air pollution models. The air quality Mesoscale NonHydrostatic Chemistry model (Meso-NH-C) is used to simulate 2 days of an Intensive Observation Period (IOP) documented during the Escompte campaign, June 23 and 24, 2001. We first study the synoptic and local meteorological situation on June 23 and 24, using surface and aircraft measurements. Then, we focus on the pollution episode of June 24. This study emphasizes the deep impact of synoptic and local dynamics on observed ozone concentrations. It is shown that ozone levels are due both to regional and local factors, with highlights of the importance of ozone layering. More generally this confirms, even in an otherwise predominant local sea-breeze regime, the need to consider larger scale regional pollutant transport.

Synoptic Factors Affecting Structure Predictability of Hurricane Alex (2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Aleman, J. J.; Evans, J. L.; Kowaleski, A. M.

2016-12-01

On January 7, 2016, a disturbance formed over the western North Atlantic basin. After undergoing tropical transition, the system became the first hurricane of 2016 - and the first North Atlantic hurricane to form in January since 1938. Already an extremely rare hurricane event, Alex then underwent extratropical transition [ET] just north of the Azores Islands. We examine the factors affecting Alex's structural evolution through a new technique called path-clustering. In this way, 51 ensembles from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Ensemble Prediction System (ECMWF-EPS) are grouped based on similarities in the storm's path through the Cyclone Phase Space (CPS). The differing clusters group various possible scenarios of structural development represented in the ensemble forecasts. As a result, it is possible to shed light on the role of the synoptic scale in changing the structure of this hurricane in the midlatitudes through intercomparison of the most "realistic" forecast of the evolution of Alex and the other physically plausible modes of its development.

Seasonal prevailing surface winds in Northern Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tošić, Ivana; Gavrilov, Milivoj B.; Marković, Slobodan B.; Ruman, Albert; Putniković, Suzana

2018-02-01

Seasonal prevailing surface winds are analyzed in the territory of Northern Serbia, using observational data from 12 meteorological stations over several decades. In accordance with the general definition of prevailing wind, two special definitions of this term are used. The seasonal wind roses in 16 directions at each station are analyzed. This study shows that the prevailing winds in Northern Serbia have northwestern and southeastern directions. Circulation weather types over Serbia are presented in order to determine the connections between the synoptic circulations and prevailing surface winds. Three controlling pressure centers, i.e., the Mediterranean cyclone, Siberian high, and the Azores anticyclone, appear as the most important large-scale factors that influence the creation of the prevailing winds over Northern Serbia. Beside the synoptic cause of the prevailing winds, it is noted that the orography of the eastern Balkans has a major influence on the winds from the second quadrant. It was found that the frequencies of circulation weather types are in agreement with those of the prevailing winds over Northern Serbia.

Small-scale wind disturbances observed by the MU radar during the passage of typhoon Kelly

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sato, Kaoru

1993-02-14

This paper describes small-scale wind disturbances associated with Typhoon Kelly (October 1987) that were observed by the MU radar, one of the MST (mesosphere, stratosphere, and troposphere) radars, for about 60 hours with fine time and height resolution. To elucidate the background of small-scale disturbances, synoptic-scale variation in atmospheric stability related to the typhoon structure during the observation is examined. When the typhoon passed near the MU radar site, the structure was no longer axisymmetric. There is deep convection only in north-northeast side of the typhoon while convection behind it is suppressed by a synoptic-scale cold air mass moving eastwardmore » to the west of the typhoon. A change in atmospheric stability over the radar site as indicated by echo power profiles is likely due to the passage of the sharp transition zone of convection. Strong small-scale wind disturbances were observed around the typhoon passage. The statistical characteristics are different before (BT) and after (AT) the typhoon passage, especially in frequency spectra of vertical wind fluctuations. The spectra for BT are unique compared with earlier studies of vertical winds observed by VHF radars. Another difference is dominance of a horizontal wind component with a vertical wavelength of about 3 km, observed only in AT. Further analyses are made of characteristics and vertical momentum fluxes for dominant disturbances. Some disturbances are generated to remove the momentum of cyclonic wind rotation of the typhoon. Deep convection, topographic effects in strong winds, and strong vertical shear of horizontal winds around an inversion layer are possible sources of the disturbances. Two monochromatic disturbances lasting for more than 10 h in the lower stratosphere observed in BT and AT are identified as inertio-gravity waves, by obtaining wave parameters consistent with all observed quantities. Both of the inertio-gravity waves propagate energy away from the typhoon.« less

Characterizing multiscale variability of zero intermittency in spatial rainfall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, Praveen; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi

1994-01-01

In this paper the authors study how zero intermittency in spatial rainfall, as described by the fraction of area covered by rainfall, changes with spatial scale of rainfall measurement or representation. A statistical measure of intermittency that describes the size distribution of 'voids' (nonrainy areas imbedded inside rainy areas) as a function of scale is also introduced. Morphological algorithms are proposed for reconstructing rainfall intermittency at fine scales given the intermittency at coarser scales. These algorithms are envisioned to be useful in hydroclimatological studies where the rainfall spatial variability at the subgrid scale needs to be reconstructed from the results of synoptic- or mesoscale meteorological numerical models. The developed methodologies are demsonstrated and tested using data from a severe springtime midlatitude squall line and a mild midlatitude winter storm monitored by a meteorological radar in Norman, Oklahoma.

Designing for Peta-Scale in the LSST Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kantor, J.; Axelrod, T.; Becla, J.; Cook, K.; Nikolaev, S.; Gray, J.; Plante, R.; Nieto-Santisteban, M.; Szalay, A.; Thakar, A.

2007-10-01

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), a proposed ground-based 8.4 m telescope with a 10 deg^2 field of view, will generate 15 TB of raw images every observing night. When calibration and processed data are added, the image archive, catalogs, and meta-data will grow 15 PB yr^{-1} on average. The LSST Data Management System (DMS) must capture, process, store, index, replicate, and provide open access to this data. Alerts must be triggered within 30 s of data acquisition. To do this in real-time at these data volumes will require advances in data management, database, and file system techniques. This paper describes the design of the LSST DMS and emphasizes features for peta-scale data. The LSST DMS will employ a combination of distributed database and file systems, with schema, partitioning, and indexing oriented for parallel operations. Image files are stored in a distributed file system with references to, and meta-data from, each file stored in the databases. The schema design supports pipeline processing, rapid ingest, and efficient query. Vertical partitioning reduces disk input/output requirements, horizontal partitioning allows parallel data access using arrays of servers and disks. Indexing is extensive, utilizing both conventional RAM-resident indexes and column-narrow, row-deep tag tables/covering indices that are extracted from tables that contain many more attributes. The DMS Data Access Framework is encapsulated in a middleware framework to provide a uniform service interface to all framework capabilities. This framework will provide the automated work-flow, replication, and data analysis capabilities necessary to make data processing and data quality analysis feasible at this scale.

North American Extreme Temperature Events and Related Large Scale Meteorological Patterns: A Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, William J., Jr.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.;

Synoptic analysis and hindcast of an intense bow echo in Western Europe: The 09 June 2014 storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathias, Luca; Ermert, Volker; Kelemen, Fanni D.; Ludwig, Patrick; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2017-04-01

On Pentecost Monday of 09 June 2014, a severe mesoscale convective system (MCS) hit Belgium and Western Germany. This storm was one of the most severe thunderstorms in Germany for decades. The synoptic-scale and mesoscale characteristics of this storm are analyzed based on remote sensing data and in-situ measurements. Moreover, the forecast potential of the storm is evaluated using sensitivity experiments with a regional climate model. The key ingredients for the development of the Pentecost storm were the concurrent presence of low-level moisture, atmospheric conditional instability and wind shear. The synoptic and mesoscale analysis shows that the outflow of a decaying MCS above northern France triggered the storm, which exhibited the typical features of a bow echo like a mesovortex and rear inflow jet. This resulted in hurricane-force wind gusts (reaching 40 m/s) along a narrow swath in the Rhine-Ruhr region leading to substantial damage. Operational numerical weather predictions models mostly failed to forecast the storm, but high-resolution regional model hindcasts enable a realistic simulation of the storm. The model experiments reveal that the development of the bow echo is particularly sensitive to the initial wind field and the lower tropospheric moisture content. Correct initial and boundary conditions are therefore necessary for realistic numerical forecasts of such a bow echo event. We conclude that the Pentecost storm exhibited a comparable structure and a similar intensity to the observed bow echo systems in the United States.

Atmospheric Rivers and Their Role in Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest U.S.

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

located in the warm sector of extratropical cyclones (warm conveyor belt) and can be characterized by strong winds (low level jet) and large water...the associated synoptic-scale extratropical cyclone and subsequent frontal processes of each planetary wave, resulting in narrow regions of moisture...normal falls during AR storms during the winter on the West Coast. During the summer, precipitation enhancements were not as significant (mostly due

Integrating Fire, Climate, and Societal Factors into Decision Support for Strategic Planning in Wildland Fire Management

Treesearch

Barbara J. Morehouse; Gregg Garfin; Timothy Brown; Thomas W. Swetnam

2006-01-01

An El Niño winter in 1998-99, followed by a strong La Niña winter in 1999- 2000, set the stage for potentially large wildfires in the southwestern, southeastern, and northwestern forests of the United States. Researchers at the University of Arizona organized a three-day workshop to discuss the relationship between synoptic scale climate conditions and wildland fire...

CITE 3 meteorological highlights

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shipham, Mark C.; Bachmeier, A. Scott; Anderson, Bruce E.

1993-01-01

Meteorological highlights from the third NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment Chemical Instrumentation Test and Evaluation (GTE/CITE 3) are presented. During August and September 1989, research flights were conducted from Wallops Island, Virginia, and Natal, Brazil, and included airborne sampling of air masses over adjacent regions of the Atlantic Ocean. Isentropic backward trajectory calculations, wind vector/streamline fields, rawinsonde data, and GOES and METEOSAT satellite imagery are utilized to examine the meteorological conditions for each flight and to determine the transport paths of the sampled air masses. Some aspects of the chemical signatures of the sampled air are also discussed. During the series of flights based at Wallops Island, Virginia, the flow into the experiment area was governed primarily by the position of the North Atlantic subtropical anticyclone. The large-scale tropospheric circulation switched from primarily a marine flow during flights 1-4, to a predominantly offshore mid-latitude continental flow during flights 5-10. During these later flights, the regional influences of large eastern U.S. cities along with vertical mixing by typical summertime convective activity strongly influenced the chemical characteristics of the sampled air. During the series of flights based at Natal, Brazil, the dominant synoptic feature was the South Atlantic subtropical anticyclone which generally transported air across the tropical Atlantic toward eastern Brazil. Pronounced subsidence and a well-defined trade wind inversion often characterized the lower and middle troposphere over the Natal region. Some high-altitude recirculation of air from South America was observed, as was cross-equatorial transport which had come from northern Africa. Biomass burning plumes were observed on segments of all of the flights, the source region being the central and southern savannah regions of Africa.

Using SysML for MBSE analysis of the LSST system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Claver, Charles F.; Dubois-Felsmann, Gregory; Delgado, Francisco; Hascall, Pat; Marshall, Stuart; Nordby, Martin; Schalk, Terry; Schumacher, German; Sebag, Jacques

2010-07-01

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope is a complex hardware - software system of systems, making up a highly automated observatory in the form of an 8.4m wide-field telescope, a 3.2 billion pixel camera, and a peta-scale data processing and archiving system. As a project, the LSST is using model based systems engineering (MBSE) methodology for developing the overall system architecture coded with the Systems Modeling Language (SysML). With SysML we use a recursive process to establish three-fold relationships between requirements, logical & physical structural component definitions, and overall behavior (activities and sequences) at successively deeper levels of abstraction and detail. Using this process we have analyzed and refined the LSST system design, ensuring the consistency and completeness of the full set of requirements and their match to associated system structure and behavior. As the recursion process proceeds to deeper levels we derive more detailed requirements and specifications, and ensure their traceability. We also expose, define, and specify critical system interfaces, physical and information flows, and clarify the logic and control flows governing system behavior. The resulting integrated model database is used to generate documentation and specifications and will evolve to support activities from construction through final integration, test, and commissioning, serving as a living representation of the LSST as designed and built. We discuss the methodology and present several examples of its application to specific systems engineering challenges in the LSST design.

Summertime ozone at Mount Washington: Meteorological controls at the highest peak in the northeast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Emily V.; Talbot, Robert W.; Dibb, Jack E.; Moody, Jennie L.; Murray, Georgia L.

2004-12-01

This study examined the synoptic and regional-scale meteorological controls on summertime O3 at Mount Washington, the highest peak (1910 m) in the northeastern United States. Analysis of air mass transport to Mount Washington was conducted for the summers of 1998-2003 using backward trajectories. Distinct patterns in air mass history were revealed using this approach that helped explain extreme variations in O3 mixing ratios. Most enhanced (≥90th percentile) and depleted (≤10th percentile) O3 events were short-lived and spread out over the summer months. Enhanced O3 events at Mount Washington were generally associated with westerly transport, while depleted events corresponded to northwesterly transport. Periods of O3 greater than 80 ppbv during nighttime periods coincided with westerly (71%) and southwesterly (29%) transport. Periods of elevated O3 commonly occurred during regional warm sector flow or on the western edge of a surface anticyclone. Our analysis also identified a stratospheric contribution to a small percentage (˜5%) of extreme O3 events at the site, but more evidence is required to establish the significance of the contribution to background O3 levels in this region.

Estimation of streamflow gains and losses in the lower San Antonio River watershed, south-central Texas, 2006-10

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lizarraga, Joy S.; Wehmeyer, Loren L.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the San Antonio River Authority, the Evergreen Underground Water Conservation District, and the Goliad County Groundwater Conservation District, investigated streamflow gains and losses during 2006-10 in the lower San Antonio River watershed in south-central Texas. Streamflow gains and losses were estimated using 2006-10 continuous streamflow records from 11 continuous streamflow-gaging stations, and discrete streamflow measurements made at as many as 20 locations on the San Antonio River and selected tributaries during four synoptic surveys during 2006-7. From the continuous streamflow records, the greatest streamflow gain on the lower San Antonio River occurred in the reach from Falls City, Tex., to Goliad, Tex. The greatest streamflow gain on Cibolo Creek during 2006-10 occurred in the reach from near Saint Hedwig, Tex., to Sutherland Springs, Tex. The San Antonio River between Floresville, Tex., and Falls City was the only reach that had an estimated streamflow loss during 2006-10. During all four synoptic streamflow measurement surveys, the only substantially flowing tributary reach to the main stem of the lower San Antonio River was Cibolo Creek. Along the main stem of the lower San Antonio River, verifiable gains larger than the potential measurement error were estimated in two of the four synoptic streamflow measurement surveys. These gaining reaches occurred in the two most downstream reaches of the San Antonio River between Goliad and Farm Road (FM) 2506 near Fannin, Tex., and between FM 2506 near Fannin to near McFaddin. There were verifiable gains in streamflow in Cibolo Creek, between La Vernia, Tex., and the town of Sutherland Springs during all four surveys, estimated at between 4.8 and 14 ft3/s.

The Energy Cascade Associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castanheira, J. M.; Marques, C. A. F.

2017-12-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation or Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO), in a more hemispheric expression, is the dominant mode of variability of the extratropical atmospheric circulation. In the literature which analyses the association of low frequency variability of the NAO/AO with other climate variables, it is very common to find the idea of circulation and climate impacts of the NAO/AO. It is usually suggested that the NAO influences the position of North Atlantic storm tracks and the related transport of heat and moisture. However, in spite of the long time since the NAO variability mode was uncovered (Walker and Bliss, 1932), its underlying dynamical mechanisms are not well understood yet. In fact, it is not yet consensual that the NAO influences the position of the storm tracks, being possible that the relationship is in the opposite way with the storm track activity influencing de NAO. In this communication we will present an analysis of anomalies of the energy cascade associated with the NAO. A detailed version of the Lorenz energy cycle, which decomposes the energy flows into baroclinic and barotropic terms and into zonal mean and eddy components, was applied to the 6-hourly ERA-I reanalysis for the period of 1979 to 2016. The obtained results show that the positive NAO phase is preceded by an significant increase of synoptic baroclinic eddy activity. The eddy available potential energy is converted into kinetic energy and transferred to barotropic synoptic eddies. Then, the kinetic energy is transferred upscale into the barotropic planetary waves, which reproduce the NAO pattern. Therefore, we conclude that the synoptic baroclinic eddy activity forces the NAO variability. No clear signal was found for a modulating role of the NAO in the baroclinic eddy activity.

The Potential Observation Network Design with Mesoscale Ensemble Sensitivities in Complex Terrain

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

in synoptic storms , extratropical transition and developing hurricanes. Because they rely on lagged covariances from a finite-sized ensemble, they...diagnose predictors of forecast error in synoptic storms , extratropical transition and developing hurricanes. Because they rely on lagged covariances...sensitivities can be used successfully to diagnose predictors of forecast error in synoptic storms (Torn and Hakim 2008), extratropical transition (Torn and

Small-scale spatial variability of sperm and sei whales in relation to oceanographic and topographic features along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skov, H.; Gunnlaugsson, T.; Budgell, W. P.; Horne, J.; Nøttestad, L.; Olsen, E.; Søiland, H.; Víkingsson, G.; Waring, G.

2008-01-01

The 2004 Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR)-ECO expedition on the R.V. G.O. Sars provided the first opportunity to correlate oceanic distributions of cetaceans with synoptic acoustic (ADCP to 700 m depth, multi-beam echosounders) measurements of high-resolution, three-dimensional (3D) potential habitat (spatial scale<100 km). The identified habitat features were tested with independent observations from the Icelandic combined cetacean and redfish cruises in 2001 and 2003 using data from a 3D ocean general circulation model of the MAR region (Regional Oceans Modelling System (ROMS) model 5 km resolution). The spatial autocorrelation of sampled encounter rates of sperm Physeter macrocephalus and sei whales Balaenoptera borealis indicated scale-dependent variability in the distribution of both species. Despite the large area surveyed, the observations of both species exhibited a strong small-scale structure (range parameter 20-50 km), indicating affinities to cross-seamount or cross-frontal structures. Potential cross-seamount and cross-frontal habitat structures were derived from the acoustic transect data by analysing fine-scale gradients in the 3D flow patterns and bathymetry, including interactions between frontal and topographic parameters. PLS regression was used to determine the potential habitat drivers of sperm and sei whales, both during the G.O. Sars cruise and during the Icelandic cruises in 2001 and 2003. The selected parameters, which reflected flow gradients interacting with the steep topography, were finally applied for modelling the habitat suitability of both target species along the northern MAR using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis. The results suggest aggregations of sperm and sei whales along the MAR are primarily associated with fine-scale frontal processes interacting with the topography in the upper 100 m of the water column just north of the Sub-Polar Front (SPF) and the Charlie-Gibbs Fracture Zone (CGFZ). As moderate and high habitat suitabilities were estimated only for areas downstream from the SPF, the findings suggest that the animals capitalise on secondary production maintained by enhanced primary production associated with the frontal processes in the upper part of the water column in the CGFZ and at the Faraday Seamounts. Further studies are encouraged to evaluate the importance of the bio-physical coupling, and the significance of small-scale frontal processes in the surface and subsurface waters north of the SPF for the transfer of energy to higher trophic levels in the North Atlantic.

Influence of atmospheric transport on ozone and trace- level toxic air contaminants over the northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brankov, Elvira

This thesis presents a methodology for examining the relationship between synoptic-scale atmospheric transport patterns and observed pollutant concentration levels. It involves calculating a large number of back-trajectories from the observational site and subjecting them to cluster analysis. The pollutant concentration data observed at that site are then segregated according to the back-trajectory clusters. If the pollutant observations extend over several seasons, it is important to filter out seasonal and long-term components from the time series data before pollutant cluster-segregation, because only the short-term component of the time series data is related to the synoptic-scale transport. Multiple comparison procedures are used to test for significant differences in the chemical composition of pollutant data associated with each cluster. This procedure is useful in indicating potential pollutant source regions and isolating meteorological regimes associated with pollutant transport from those regions. If many observational sites are available, the spatial and temporal scales of the pollution transport from a given direction can be extracted through the time-lagged inter- site correlation analysis of pollutant concentrations. The proposed methodology is applicable to any pollutant at any site if sufficiently abundant data set is available. This is illustrated through examination of five-year long time series data of ozone concentrations at several sites in the Northeast. The results provide evidence of ozone transport to these sites, revealing the characteristic spatial and temporal scales involved in the transport and identifying source regions for this pollutant. Problems related to statistical analyses of censored data are addressed in the second half of this thesis. Although censoring (reporting concentrations in a non-quantitative way) is typical for trace-level measurements, methods for statistical analysis, inference and interpretation of such data are complex and still under development. In this study, multiple comparison of censored data sets was required in order to examine the influence of synoptic- scale circulations on concentration levels of several trace-level toxic pollutants observed in the Northeast (e.g., As, Se, Mn, V, etc.). Since the traditional multiple comparison procedures are not readily applicable to such data sets, a Monte Carlo simulation study was performed to assess several nonparametric methods for multiple comparison of censored data sets. Application of an appropriate comparison procedure to clusters of toxic trace elements observed in the Northeast led to the identification of potential source regions and atmospheric patterns associated with the long-range transport of these pollutants. A method for comparison of proportions and elemental ratio calculations were used to confirm/clarify these inferences with a greater degree of confidence.

Precipitation factors leading to arc cloud formation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brundidge, Kenneth C.

1987-01-01

The combined efforts of three graduate students and the principal investigator are presented. Satellite observations and interpretation have become increasingly important in the areas of weather research and operational forecasting. One reason is that geostationary satellite imagery is the only meteorological observing tool that can follow the evolution of clouds from the synoptic scale down to the cumulas scale. Therefore, it can depict atmospheric activity which is up to two orders of magnitude smaller than can be resolved by conventional meteorological observations. This unique ability of the satellite provides the meteorologist a mechanism to infer weather events down to the mesoscale. This evolution is the subject of this report.

Atmospheric conditions during high ragweed pollen concentrations in Zagreb, Croatia.

PubMed

Prtenjak, Maja Telišman; Srnec, Lidija; Peternel, Renata; Madžarević, Valentina; Hrga, Ivana; Stjepanović, Barbara

2012-11-01

We examined the atmospheric conditions favourable to the occurrence of maximum concentrations of ragweed pollen with an extremely high risk of producing allergy. Over the 2002-2009 period, daily pollen data collected in Zagreb were used to identify two periods of high pollen concentration (> 600 grains/m(3)) for our analysis: period A (3-4 September 2002) and period B (6-7 September 2003). Synoptic conditions in both periods were very similar: Croatia was under the influence of a lower sector high pressure system moving slowly eastward over Eastern Europe. During the 2002-2009 period, this type of weather pattern (on ~ 70% of days), in conjunction with almost non-gradient surface pressure conditions in the area (on ~ 30% of days) characterised days when the daily pollen concentrations were higher than 400 grains/m(3). Numerical experiments using a mesoscale model at fine resolution showed successful multi-day simulations reproducing the local topographic influence on wind flow and in reasonable agreement with available observations. According to the model, the relatively weak synoptic flow (predominantly from the eastern direction) allowed local thermal circulations to develop over Zagreb during both high pollen episodes. Two-hour pollen concentrations and 48-h back-trajectories indicated that regional-range transport of pollen grains from the central Pannonian Plain was the cause of the high pollen concentrations during period A. During period B, the north-westward regional-range transport in Zagreb was supplemented significantly by pronounced horizontal recirculation of pollen grains. This recirculation happened within the diurnal local circulation over the city, causing a late-evening increase in pollen concentration.

Atmospheric conditions during high ragweed pollen concentrations in Zagreb, Croatia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prtenjak, Maja Telišman; Srnec, Lidija; Peternel, Renata; Madžarević, Valentina; Hrga, Ivana; Stjepanović, Barbara

2012-11-01

We examined the atmospheric conditions favourable to the occurrence of maximum concentrations of ragweed pollen with an extremely high risk of producing allergy. Over the 2002-2009 period, daily pollen data collected in Zagreb were used to identify two periods of high pollen concentration (> 600 grains/m3) for our analysis: period A (3-4 September 2002) and period B (6-7 September 2003). Synoptic conditions in both periods were very similar: Croatia was under the influence of a lower sector high pressure system moving slowly eastward over Eastern Europe. During the 2002-2009 period, this type of weather pattern (on ~ 70% of days), in conjunction with almost non-gradient surface pressure conditions in the area (on ~ 30% of days) characterised days when the daily pollen concentrations were higher than 400 grains/m3. Numerical experiments using a mesoscale model at fine resolution showed successful multi-day simulations reproducing the local topographic influence on wind flow and in reasonable agreement with available observations. According to the model, the relatively weak synoptic flow (predominantly from the eastern direction) allowed local thermal circulations to develop over Zagreb during both high pollen episodes. Two-hour pollen concentrations and 48-h back-trajectories indicated that regional-range transport of pollen grains from the central Pannonian Plain was the cause of the high pollen concentrations during period A. During period B, the north-westward regional-range transport in Zagreb was supplemented significantly by pronounced horizontal recirculation of pollen grains. This recirculation happened within the diurnal local circulation over the city, causing a late-evening increase in pollen concentration.

Baroclinic wave configurations evolution at European scale in the period 1948-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carbunaru, Daniel; Burcea, Sorin; Carbunaru, Felicia

2016-04-01

The main aim of the study was to investigate the dynamic characteristics of synoptic configurations at European scale and especially in south-eastern part of Europe for the period 1948-2013. Using the empirical orthogonal functions analysis, simultaneously applied to daily average geopotential field at different pressure levels (200 hPa, 300 hPa, 500 hPa and 850 hPa) during warm (April-September) and cold (October-March) seasons, on a synoptic spatial domain centered on Europe (-27.5o lon V to 45o lon E and 32.5o lat N to 72.5o lat N), the main mode of oscillation characteristic to vertical shift of mean baroclinic waves was obtained. The analysis independently applied on 66 years showed that the first eigenvectors in warms periods describe about 60% of the data and in cold season 40% of the data for each year. In comparison secondary eigenvectors describe up to 20% and 10% of the data. Thus, the analysis was focused on the complex evolution of the first eigenvector in 66 years, during the summer period. On average, this eigenvector describes a small vertical phase shift in the west part of the domain and a large one in the eastern part. Because the spatial extent of the considered synoptic domain incorporates in the west part AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) oscillations, and in the north part being sensitive to AO (Arctic Oscillation) oscillation, these three oscillations were considered as modulating dynamic factors at hemispherical scale. The preliminary results show that in the summer seasons AMO and NAO oscillations modulated vertical phase shift of baroclinic wave in the west of the area (Northwestern Europe), and the relationship between AO and NAO oscillations modulated vertical phase shift in the southeast area (Southeast Europe). Second, it was shown the way in which this vertical phase shift modulates the overall behavior of cyclonic activity, particularly in Southeastern Europe. This work has been developed within the research project "Changes in climate extremes and associated impact in hydrological events in Romania" (CLIMHYDEX), code PN II-ID-2011-2-0073, financed by the Romanian Executive Agency for Higher Education Research, Development and Innovation Funding (UEFISCDI).

Photospheric and coronal magnetic fields in 1974 - 2015: A comparison of six magnetographs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virtanen, I. I.; Mursula, K.

2015-12-01

Photospheric magnetic field has been measured since 1950s and digital synoptic data exists since 1970s. We study the long-term development of photospheric and coronal magnetic fields, using Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO), Mount Wilson, Kitt Peak, Solis, SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI measurements of the photospheric magnetic field and the the potential field source surface (PFSS) model. We pay particular attention to the occurrence of the hemispheric asymmetry of the coronal field. The solar and heliospheric magnetic fields are systematically north-south asymmetric. The southward shift of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) (the so-called Bashful ballerina phenomenon) is a persistent pattern, which occurs typically for about three years during the late declining phase of solar cycle. Multipole analysis of the photospheric magnetic field has shown that the Bashful ballerina is mainly due to the g02 quadrupole term, which is oppositely signed to the dipole moment and reflects the larger magnitude of the southern polar field. The six data sets are in general in a good agreement with each other, but the different spatial resolution causes difference some in results. Moreover, there are number of deviations in different individual data sets that are not related to resolution, e.g., in WSO data and in the current version of Kitt Peak 512 channel magnetograph data. We note that the two lowest harmonic coefficients do not scale with the overall magnitude of photospheric synoptic magnetic maps. Scaling factors based on histogram techniques can be as large as 10 (from Wilcox to HMI), but the corresponding factor in dipole strength is typically less than two. Scaling also depends on the harmonic coefficient. This should be noted, e.g., when using synoptic maps as input for coronal models. We find that, despite the differences between the six different data sets, especially in the measurements at the highest latitudes, they all support the southward shift of the HCS. At the moment, polar fields have reversed and are strengthening especially in the southern hemisphere, leading to the bashful ballerina, but it is not necessary the final condition during the solar minimum after solar cycle 24. Accordingly, it seems that the Ballerina will be bashful even during cycle 24, although final conclusions must wait the later declining phase.

Reconstructed streamflow in the eastern United States: validity, drivers, and challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, S.; Harley, G. L.; Maxwell, J. T.; Rayback, S. A.; Pederson, N.; Cook, E. R.; Barclay, D. J.; Li, W.; Rayburn, J. A.

2015-12-01

Tree-ring reconstructions of streamflow are uncommon in the eastern US compared to the western US. While the eastern US does not experience severe drought on the scale of the west, multi-year droughts have stressed the water management systems throughout the east. Here, we reconstruct three rivers serving population centers in the northeast (Beaver Kill River serving New York City, NY), mid-Atlantic (Potomac River serving Washington, D.C.), and southeast (Flint River serving Atlanta, GA) to demonstrate the ability to reconstruct in the eastern US. Then, we conducted an interbasin comparison to identify periods of common variability and examined synoptic scale drivers of drought and pluvial events. Finally, we discuss the utility of multi-species reconstructions in the moist, biodiverse eastern US. Our calibration models explained 66 - 68% of the variance in the instrumental record and passed verification tests in all basins to 1675 CE. Drought and pluvial events showed some synchrony across all basins but the mid-Atlantic acted as a hinge, sometimes behaving more like the northeast, and other times like the southeast. Weak correlations with oceanic-atmospheric oscillations made identification of synoptic scale drivers difficult. However, there appears to be a relationship between the position of the western ridge of the North Atlantic Subtropical High and streamflow across the basins of the east. Given the many factors influencing tree growth in closed canopy systems, we have shown that careful standardization of individual tree-ring series, nested regression models, and the use of multiple species can produce robust proxies in the east.

A Coupled Ocean General Circulation, Biogeochemical, and Radiative Model of the Global Oceans: Seasonal Distributions of Ocean Chlorophyll and Nutrients

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.; Busalacchi, Antonio (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

A coupled ocean general circulation, biogeochemical, and radiative model was constructed to evaluate and understand the nature of seasonal variability of chlorophyll and nutrients in the global oceans. Biogeochemical processes in the model are determined from the influences of circulation and turbulence dynamics, irradiance availability. and the interactions among three functional phytoplankton groups (diatoms. chlorophytes, and picoplankton) and three nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, and silicate). Basin scale (greater than 1000 km) model chlorophyll results are in overall agreement with CZCS pigments in many global regions. Seasonal variability observed in the CZCS is also represented in the model. Synoptic scale (100-1000 km) comparisons of imagery are generally in conformance although occasional departures are apparent. Model nitrate distributions agree with in situ data, including seasonal dynamics, except for the equatorial Atlantic. The overall agreement of the model with satellite and in situ data sources indicates that the model dynamics offer a reasonably realistic simulation of phytoplankton and nutrient dynamics on synoptic scales. This is especially true given that initial conditions are homogenous chlorophyll fields. The success of the model in producing a reasonable representation of chlorophyll and nutrient distributions and seasonal variability in the global oceans is attributed to the application of a generalized, processes-driven approach as opposed to regional parameterization and the existence of multiple phytoplankton groups with different physiological and physical properties. These factors enable the model to simultaneously represent many aspects of the great diversity of physical, biological, chemical, and radiative environments encountered in the global oceans.

Atmospheric River Frequency and Intensity Changes in CMIP5 Climate Model Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M.; Mass, C.; Salathe, E. P., Jr.

2012-12-01

Most extreme precipitation events that occur along the North American west coast are associated with narrow plumes of above-average water vapor concentration that stretch from the tropics or subtropics to the West Coast. These events generally occur during the wet season (October-March) and are referred to as atmospheric rivers (AR). ARs can cause major river management problems, damage from flooding or landslides, and loss of life. It is currently unclear how these events will change in frequency and intensity as a result of climate change in the coming century. While climate model global mean precipitation match observations reasonably well in historical runs, precipitation frequency and intensity is generally poorly represented at local scales; however, synoptic-scale features are more realistically simulated by climate models, and AR events can be identified by extremely high values of integrated water vapor flux at points near the West Coast. There have been many recent studies indicating changes in synoptic-scale features under climate change that could have meaningful impacts on the frequency and intensity of ARs. In this study, a suite of CMIP5 models are used to analyze predicted changes in frequency and intensity of AR events impacting the West Coast from the contemporary period (1970-1999) to the end of this century (2070-2099). Generally, integrated water vapor is predicted to increase in these models (both the mean and extremes) while low-level wind decreases and upper-level wind increases. This study aims to determine the influence of these changes on precipitation intensity in AR events in future climate simulations.

Spatial and temporal variations of aerosols around Beijing in summer 2006: Model evaluation and source apportionment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsui, H.; Koike, M.; Kondo, Y.; Takegawa, N.; Kita, K.; Miyazaki, Y.; Hu, M.; Chang, S.; Blake, D. R.; Fast, J. D.; Zaveri, R. A.; Streets, D. G.; Zhang, Q.; Zhu, T.

2009-12-01

Regional aerosol model calculations were made using the WRF-CMAQ and WRF-chem models to study spatial and temporal variations of aerosols around Beijing, China, in the summer of 2006, when the CAREBEIJING-2006 intensive campaign was conducted. Model calculations captured temporal variations of primary (such as elemental carbon, EC) and secondary (such as sulfate) aerosols observed in and around Beijing. The spatial distributions of aerosol optical depth observed by the MODIS satellite sensors were also reproduced over northeast China. Model calculations showed distinct differences in spatial distributions between primary and secondary aerosols in association with synoptic-scale meteorology. Secondary aerosols increased in air around Beijing on a scale of about 1000 x 1000 km2 under an anticyclonic pressure system. This airmass was transported northward from the high anthropogenic emission area extending south of Beijing with continuous photochemical production. Subsequent cold front passage brought clean air from the north, and polluted air around Beijing was swept to the south of Beijing. This cycle was repeated about once a week and was found to be responsible for observed enhancements/reductions of aerosols at the intensive measurement sites. In contrast to secondary aerosols, the spatial distributions of primary aerosols (EC) reflected those of emissions, resulting in only slight variability despite the changes in synoptic-scale meteorology. In accordance with these results, source apportionment simulations revealed that primary aerosols around Beijing were controlled by emissions within 100 km around Beijing within the preceding 24 hours, while emissions as far as 500 km and within the preceding 3 days were found to affect secondary aerosols.

The impact of land and sea surface variations on the Delaware sea breeze at local scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Christopher P.

The summertime climate of coastal Delaware is greatly influenced by the intensity, frequency, and location of the local sea breeze circulation. Sea breeze induced changes in temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation influence many aspects of Delaware's economy by affecting tourism, farming, air pollution density, energy usage, and the strength, and persistence of Delaware's wind resource. The sea breeze front can develop offshore or along the coastline and often creates a near surface thermal gradient in excess of 5°C. The purpose of this dissertation is to investigate the dynamics of the Delaware sea breeze with a focus on the immediate coastline using observed and modeled components, both at high resolutions (~200m). The Weather Research and Forecasting model (version 3.5) was employed over southern Delaware with 5 domains (4 levels of nesting), with resolutions ranging from 18km to 222m, for June 2013 to investigate the sensitivity of the sea breeze to land and sea surface variations. The land surface was modified in the model to improve the resolution, which led to the addition of land surface along the coastline and accounted for recent urban development. Nine-day composites of satellite sea surface temperatures were ingested into the model and an in-house SST forcing dataset was developed to account for spatial SST variation within the inland bays. Simulations, which include the modified land surface, introduce a distinct secondary atmospheric circulation across the coastline of Rehoboth Bay when synoptic offshore wind flow is weak. Model runs using high spatial- and temporal-resolution satellite sea surface temperatures over the ocean indicate that the sea breeze landfall time is sensitive to the SST when the circulation develops offshore. During the summer of 2013 a field campaign was conducted in the coastal locations of Rehoboth Beach, DE and Cape Henlopen, DE. At each location, a series of eleven small, autonomous thermo-sensors (i-buttons) were placed along 1-km transects oriented perpendicular to the coastline where each sensor recorded temperatures at five-minute intervals. This novel approach allows for detailed characterization of the sea breeze front development over the immediate coastline not seen in previous studies. These observations provide evidence of significant variability in frontal propagation (advancing, stalling, and retrograding) within the first kilometer of the coast. Results from this observational study indicate that the land surface has the largest effect on the frontal location when the synoptic winds have a strong offshore component, which forces the sea breeze front to move slowly through the region. When this happens, the frequency of occurrence and sea breeze frontal speed decreases consistently across the first 500 m of Rehoboth Beach, after which, the differences become insignificant. At Cape Henlopen the decrease in intensity across the transect is much less evident and the reduction in frequency does not occur until after the front is 500 m from the coast. Under these conditions at Rehoboth Beach, the near surface air behind the front warms due to the land surface which, along with the large surface friction component of the urbanized land surface, causes the front to slow as it traverses the region. Observation and modeling results suggest that the influence of variations in the land and sea surface on the sea breeze circulation is complex and highly dependent on the regional synoptic wind regime. This result inspired the development of a sea breeze prediction algorithm using a generalized linear regression model which, incorporated real-time synoptic conditions to forecast the likelihood of a sea breeze front passing through a coastal station. The forecast skill increases through the morning hours after sunrise. The inland synoptic wind direction is the most influential variable utilized by the algorithm. Such a model could be enhanced to forecast local temperature with coonfidence, which could be useful in an economic or energy usage model.

Classification of weather patterns to study the influence of meteorological characteristics on PM2.5 concentrations in Yunlin County, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Chia-Hua; Cheng, Fang-Yi

2016-11-01

Yunlin County is located in the central part of western Taiwan with major emissions from the Mailiao industrial park, the Taichung Power Plants and heavy traffic. In order to understand the influence of meteorological conditions on PM2.5 concentrations in Yunlin County, we applied a two-stage cluster analysis method using the daily averaged surface winds from four air quality monitoring stations in Yunlin County to classify the weather pattern. The study period includes 1095 days from Jan 2013 to December 2015. The classification results show that the low PM2.5 concentration occurs when the synoptic weather in Taiwan is affected by the strong southwesterly monsoonal flow. The high PM2.5 concentration occurs when Taiwan is under the influence of weak synoptic weather conditions and continental high-pressure peripheral circulation. A high PM2.5 event was studied and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model was performed. The result indicated that due to being blocked by the Central Mountain Range, Yunlin County, which is situated on the leeside of the mountains, exhibits low wind speed and strong subsidence behavior that favors PM2.5 accumulation.

Synoptic Sun during the first Whole Sun Month Campaign: August 10 to September 8, 1996

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biesecker, D. A.; Thompson, B. J.; Gibson, S. E.; Alexander, D.; Fludra, A.; Gopalswamy, N.; Hoeksema, J. T.; Lecinski, A.; Strachan, L.

1999-05-01

A large number of synoptic maps from a variety of instruments are used to show the general morphology of the Sun at the time of the First Whole Sun Month Campaign. The campaign was conducted from August 10 to September 8, 1996. The synoptic maps cover the period from Carrington rotation 1912/253° to Carrington rotation 1913/45°. The synoptic maps encompass both on-disk data and limb data from several heights in the solar atmosphere. The maps are used to illustrate which wavelengths and data sets show particular features, such as active regions and coronal holes. Of particular interest is the equatorial coronal hole known as the ``elephant's trunk,'' which is clearly evident in the synoptic maps of on-disk data. The elephant's trunk is similar in appearance to the Skylab-era, ``Boot of Italy,'' equatorial coronal hole. The general appearance of the limb maps is explained as well. The limb maps also show evidence for equatorial coronal holes.

Objective detection and forecasting of Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT): A status report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, John L.

1988-01-01

Clear-air turbulence has become the largest single cause of weather-related injuries occurring in commercial carriers at cruising altitudes. A technique for objective operational CAT detection (the SCATR index) has been formulated. Its physical basis ties CAT to total energy dissipation as a response to meso- and synoptic-scale dynamical processes associated with upper-level jet stream/frontal zones. Early case studies using properly analyzed routine RAOB rawinsonde sounding data have shown promise.

An HF and lower VHF spectrum assessment system exploiting instantaneously wideband capture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, Rod I.; Singh, Malkiat; Earl, Fred

2017-09-01

We report on a spectral environment evaluation and recording (SEER) system, for instantaneously wideband spectral capture and characterization in the HF and lower VHF band, utilizing a direct digital receiver coupled to a data recorder. The system is designed to contend with a wide variety of electromagnetic environments and to provide accurately calibrated spectral characterization and display from very short (ms) to synoptic scales. The system incorporates a novel RF front end involving automated gain and equalization filter selection which provides an analogue frequency-dependent gain characteristic that mitigates the high dynamic range found across the HF and lower VHF spectrum. The system accurately calibrates its own internal noise and automatically subtracts this from low variance, external spectral estimates, further extending the dynamic range over which robust characterization is possible. Laboratory and field experiments demonstrate that the implementation of these concepts has been effective. Sensitivity to varying antenna load impedance of the internal noise reduction process has been examined. Examples of software algorithms to provide extraction and visualization of spectral behavior over narrowband, wideband, short, and synoptic scales are provided. Application in HF noise spectral density monitoring, spectral signal strength assessment, and electromagnetic interference detection is possible with examples provided. The instantaneously full bandwidth collection provides some innovative applications, and this is demonstrated by the collection of discrete lightning emissions, which form fast ionograms called "flashagrams" in power-delay-frequency plots.

SRNL PARTICIPATION IN THE MULTI-SCALE ENSEMBLE EXERCISES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buckley, R

2007-10-29

Consequence assessment during emergency response often requires atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling to guide decision making. A statistical analysis of the ensemble of results from several models is a useful way of estimating the uncertainty for a given forecast. ENSEMBLE is a European Union program that utilizes an internet-based system to ingest transport results from numerous modeling agencies. A recent set of exercises required output on three distinct spatial and temporal scales. The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) uses a regional prognostic model nested within a larger-scale synoptic model to generate the meteorological conditions which are in turn used inmore » a Lagrangian particle dispersion model. A discussion of SRNL participation in these exercises is given, with particular emphasis on requirements for provision of results in a timely manner with regard to the various spatial scales.« less

Sea Surface Temperature Influence on Terrestrial Gross Primary Production along the Southern California Current.

PubMed

Reimer, Janet J; Vargas, Rodrigo; Rivas, David; Gaxiola-Castro, Gilberto; Hernandez-Ayon, J Martin; Lara-Lara, Ruben

2015-01-01

Some land and ocean processes are related through connections (and synoptic-scale teleconnections) to the atmosphere. Synoptic-scale atmospheric (El Niño/Southern Oscillation [ENSO], Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO], and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]) decadal cycles are known to influence the global terrestrial carbon cycle. Potentially, smaller scale land-ocean connections influenced by coastal upwelling (changes in sea surface temperature) may be important for local-to-regional water-limited ecosystems where plants may benefit from air moisture transported from the ocean to terrestrial ecosystems. Here we use satellite-derived observations to test potential connections between changes in sea surface temperature (SST) in regions with strong coastal upwelling and terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) across the Baja California Peninsula. This region is characterized by an arid/semiarid climate along the southern California Current. We found that SST was correlated with the fraction of photosynthetic active radiation (fPAR; as a proxy for GPP) with lags ranging from 0 to 5 months. In contrast ENSO was not as strongly related with fPAR as SST in these coastal ecosystems. Our results show the importance of local-scale changes in SST during upwelling events, to explain the variability in GPP in coastal, water-limited ecosystems. The response of GPP to SST was spatially-dependent: colder SST in the northern areas increased GPP (likely by influencing fog formation), while warmer SST at the southern areas was associated to higher GPP (as SST is in phase with precipitation patterns). Interannual trends in fPAR are also spatially variable along the Baja California Peninsula with increasing secular trends in subtropical regions, decreasing trends in the most arid region, and no trend in the semi-arid regions. These findings suggest that studies and ecosystem process based models should consider the lateral influence of local-scale ocean processes that could influence coastal ecosystem productivity.

Sea Surface Temperature Influence on Terrestrial Gross Primary Production along the Southern California Current

PubMed Central

Reimer, Janet J.; Vargas, Rodrigo; Rivas, David; Gaxiola-Castro, Gilberto; Hernandez-Ayon, J. Martin; Lara-Lara, Ruben

2015-01-01

Some land and ocean processes are related through connections (and synoptic-scale teleconnections) to the atmosphere. Synoptic-scale atmospheric (El Niño/Southern Oscillation [ENSO], Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO], and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]) decadal cycles are known to influence the global terrestrial carbon cycle. Potentially, smaller scale land-ocean connections influenced by coastal upwelling (changes in sea surface temperature) may be important for local-to-regional water-limited ecosystems where plants may benefit from air moisture transported from the ocean to terrestrial ecosystems. Here we use satellite-derived observations to test potential connections between changes in sea surface temperature (SST) in regions with strong coastal upwelling and terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) across the Baja California Peninsula. This region is characterized by an arid/semiarid climate along the southern California Current. We found that SST was correlated with the fraction of photosynthetic active radiation (fPAR; as a proxy for GPP) with lags ranging from 0 to 5 months. In contrast ENSO was not as strongly related with fPAR as SST in these coastal ecosystems. Our results show the importance of local-scale changes in SST during upwelling events, to explain the variability in GPP in coastal, water-limited ecosystems. The response of GPP to SST was spatially-dependent: colder SST in the northern areas increased GPP (likely by influencing fog formation), while warmer SST at the southern areas was associated to higher GPP (as SST is in phase with precipitation patterns). Interannual trends in fPAR are also spatially variable along the Baja California Peninsula with increasing secular trends in subtropical regions, decreasing trends in the most arid region, and no trend in the semi-arid regions. These findings suggest that studies and ecosystem process based models should consider the lateral influence of local-scale ocean processes that could influence coastal ecosystem productivity. PMID:25923109

Using synoptic weather types to predict visitor attendance at Atlanta and Indianapolis zoological parks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perkins, David R.

2018-01-01

Defining an ideal "tourism climate" has been an often-visited research topic where explanations have evolved from global- to location-specific indices tailored to tourists' recreational behavior. Unfortunately, as indices become increasingly specific, they are less translatable across geographies because they may only apply to specific activities, locales, climates, or populations. A key need in the future development of weather and climate indices for tourism has been a translatable, meteorologically based index capturing the generalized ambient atmospheric conditions yet considering local climatology. To address this need, this paper tests the applicability of the spatial synoptic classification (SSC) as a tool to predict visitor attendance response in the tourism, recreation, and leisure (TRL) sector across different climate regimes. Daily attendance data is paired with the prevailing synoptic weather condition at Atlanta and Indianapolis zoological parks from September 2001 to June 2011, to review potential impacts ambient atmospheric conditions may have on visitor attendances. Results indicate that "dry moderate" conditions are most associated with high levels of attendance and "moist polar" synoptic conditions are most associated with low levels of attendance at both zoological parks. Comparing visitor response at these zoo locations, visitors in Indianapolis showed lower levels of tolerance to synoptic conditions which were not "ideal." Visitors in Indianapolis also displayed more aversion to "polar" synoptic regimes while visitors in Atlanta displayed more tolerance to "moist tropical" synoptic regimes. Using a comprehensive atmospheric measure such as the SSC may be a key to broadening application when assessing tourism climates across diverse geographies.

The influence of synoptic weather regimes on UK air quality: regional model studies of tropospheric column NO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, R. J.; Savage, N. H.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Ordóñez, C.; Neal, L. S.

2015-07-01

Synoptic meteorology can have a significant influence on UK air quality. Cyclonic (anticyclonic) conditions lead to the dispersion (accumulation) of air pollutants away from (over) source regions. Meteorology also modifies atmospheric chemistry processes such as photolysis and wet deposition. Previous studies have shown a relationship between observed satellite tropospheric column NO2 and synoptic meteorology in different seasons. Here, we test whether the UK Met Office Air Quality in the Unified Model (AQUM) can reproduce these observations and then use the model to determine the controlling factors. We show that AQUM successfully captures the observed relationships, when sampled under the Lamb Weather Types, an objective classification of midday UK circulation patterns. By using a range of idealised NOx-like tracers with different e-folding lifetimes, we show that under different synoptic regimes the NO2 lifetime in AQUM is approximately 6 h in summer and 12 h in winter. The longer lifetime can explain why synoptic spatial column NO2 variations are more significant in winter compared to summer, due to less NO2 photochemical loss. We also show that cyclonic conditions have more seasonality in column NO2 than anticyclonic conditions as they result in more extreme spatial departures from the wintertime seasonal average. Within a season (summer or winter) under different synoptic regimes, a large proportion of the spatial pattern in the UK column NO2 field can be explained by the idealised model tracers, showing that transport is an important factor in governing the variability of UK air quality on seasonal synoptic timescales.

Using synoptic weather types to predict visitor attendance at Atlanta and Indianapolis zoological parks.

PubMed

Perkins, David R

2018-01-01

Defining an ideal "tourism climate" has been an often-visited research topic where explanations have evolved from global- to location-specific indices tailored to tourists' recreational behavior. Unfortunately, as indices become increasingly specific, they are less translatable across geographies because they may only apply to specific activities, locales, climates, or populations. A key need in the future development of weather and climate indices for tourism has been a translatable, meteorologically based index capturing the generalized ambient atmospheric conditions yet considering local climatology. To address this need, this paper tests the applicability of the spatial synoptic classification (SSC) as a tool to predict visitor attendance response in the tourism, recreation, and leisure (TRL) sector across different climate regimes. Daily attendance data is paired with the prevailing synoptic weather condition at Atlanta and Indianapolis zoological parks from September 2001 to June 2011, to review potential impacts ambient atmospheric conditions may have on visitor attendances. Results indicate that "dry moderate" conditions are most associated with high levels of attendance and "moist polar" synoptic conditions are most associated with low levels of attendance at both zoological parks. Comparing visitor response at these zoo locations, visitors in Indianapolis showed lower levels of tolerance to synoptic conditions which were not "ideal." Visitors in Indianapolis also displayed more aversion to "polar" synoptic regimes while visitors in Atlanta displayed more tolerance to "moist tropical" synoptic regimes. Using a comprehensive atmospheric measure such as the SSC may be a key to broadening application when assessing tourism climates across diverse geographies.

Surface-Water Exchange through Culverts beneath State Road 9336 within Everglades National Park, 2004-05

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schaffranek, Raymond W.; Stewart, Marc A.; Nowacki, Daniel J.

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey collected hydrologic data between June 2004 and December 2005 to investigate the temporal and spatial nature of flow exchanges through culverts beneath State Road 9336 within Everglades National Park. Continuous data collected during the study measured flow velocity, water level, salinity, conductivity, and water-temperature in or near seven culverts between Pa-hay-okee Overlook access road and Nine Mile Pond. The two culverts east of Pa-hay-okee Overlook access road flowed into Taylor Slough Basin from 87 to 96 percent of the study period, whereas flows through five culverts between Pa-hay-okee Overlook access road and Nine Mile Pond flowed into Shark River Slough Basin from 70 to 99 percent of the study period. Synoptic flow discharges measured at all culverts during three intensive field efforts revealed a net discharge into Taylor Slough Basin from Shark River Slough Basin through culverts between Royal Palm Road and Pa-hay-okee Overlook access road, and into Shark River Slough Basin from Taylor Slough Basin through culverts between Pa-hay-okee Overlook access road and Nine Mile Pond. Data collected during the study and presented in this report provided additional knowledge of the magnitude, direction, and nature of flow exchanges through the road culverts.

Effects of Historical Coal Mining and Drainage from Abandoned Mines on Streamflow and Water Quality in Newport and Nanticoke Creeks, Luzerne County, Pennsylvania, 1999-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chaplin, Jeffrey J.; Cravotta,, Charles A.; Weitzel, Jeffrey B.; Klemow, Kenneth M.

2007-01-01

This report characterizes the effects of historical mining and abandoned mine drainage (AMD) on streamflow and water quality and evaluates potential strategies for AMD abatement in the 14-square-mile Newport Creek Basin and 7.6-square-mile Nanticoke Creek Basin. Both basins are mostly within the Northern Anthracite Coal Field and drain to the Susquehanna River in central Luzerne County, Pa. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Earth Conservancy, conducted an assessment from April 1999 to September 2000 that included (1) continuous stage measurement at 7 sites; (2) synoptic water-quality and flow sampling at 21 sites on June 2-4, 1999, and at 24 sites on October 7-8, 1999; and (3) periodic measurement of flow and water quality at 26 additional sites not included in the synoptic sampling effort. Stream water and surface runoff from the unmined uplands drain northward to the valley, where most of the water is intercepted and diverted into abandoned underground mines. Water that infiltrates into the mine workings becomes loaded with acidity, metals, and sulfate and later discharges as AMD at topographically low points along lower reaches of Newport Creek, Nanticoke Creek, and their tributaries. Differences among streamflows in unmined and mined areas of the watersheds indicated that (1) intermediate stream reaches within the mined area but upgradient of AMD sites generally were either dry or losing reaches, (2) ground water flowing to AMD sites could cross beneath surface-drainage divides, and (3) AMD discharging to the lower stream reaches restored volumes lost in the upstream reaches. The synoptic data for June and October 1999, along with continuous stage data during the study period, indicated flows during synoptic surveys were comparable to average values. The headwaters upstream of the mined area generally were oxygenated (dissolved oxygen range was 4.7 to 11.0 mg/L [milligrams per liter]), near-neutral (pH range was 5.8 to 7.6), and net alkaline (net alkalinity range was 2.0 to 25.0 mg/L CaCO3), with relatively low concentrations of sulfate (6.40 to 24.0 mg/L) and dissolved metals (less than 500 ug/L [micrograms per liter] of iron, manganese, and aluminum). In contrast, the AMD discharges and downstream waters were characterized by elevated concentrations of sulfate and dissolved metals that exceeded Federal and State regulatory limits. The largest AMD sources were the Susquehanna Number 7 Mine discharge entering Newport Creek near its mouth (flow range was 4.7 to 19 ft3/s [cubic feet per second]), the Truesdale Mine Discharge (Dundee Outfall) entering Nanticoke Creek about 0.5 mile upstream of Loomis Park (flow range was 0.00 to 38 ft3/s), and a mine-pit overflow entering near the midpoint of Newport Creek (flow range was 4.0 to 6.9 ft3/s). The three large discharges were poorly oxygenated (dissolved oxygen concentration range was <0.05 to 6.4 mg/L) and had elevated concentrations of sulfate (range was 710 to 890 mg/L) and low concentrations of dissolved aluminum (less than 25 ug/L), but they had distinctive concentrations of net alkalinity and dissolved iron and manganese. Effluent from the Susquehanna Number 7 Mine was near-neutral (pH range was 5.9 to 6.6) and net alkaline (net alkalinity range was 12.0 to 42.0 mg/L CaCO3) with elevated concentrations of sulfate (718 to 1,170 mg/L), dissolved iron (52,500 to 77,400 ug/L), and manganese (5,200 to 5,300 ug/L). Effluent from the Truesdale Mine also was near-neutral (pH range was 5.9 to 6.3) but had variable net alkalinity (-19.0 to 57.0 mg/L CaCO3) with elevated concentrations of sulfate (571 to 740 mg/L), dissolved iron (30,500 to 43,000 ug/L), and manganese (3,600 to 5,200 ug/L). Effluent from the mine-pit overflow in Newport Creek Basin was acidic (pH range was 4.3 to 5.0; net alkalinity range was -42 to -38 mg/L CaCO3) with elevated concentrations of sulfate (800 to 840 mg/L), iron (13,000 to 16,000 ug/L), and manganese (6,800 to 7,000 ug

The Asian-Bering-North American teleconnection: seasonality, maintenance, and climate impact on North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Bin; Lin, H.; Wu, Z. W.; Merryfield, W. J.

2018-03-01

The Asian-Bering-North American (ABNA) teleconnection index is constructed from the normalized 500-hPa geopotential field by excluding the Pacific-North American pattern contribution. The ABNA pattern features a zonally elongated wavetrain originating from North Asia and flowing downstream across Bering Sea and Strait towards North America. The large-scale teleconnection is a year-round phenomenon that displays strong seasonality with the peak variability in winter. North American surface temperature and temperature extremes, including warm days and nights as well as cold days and nights, are significantly controlled by this teleconnection. The ABNA pattern has an equivalent barotropic structure in the troposphere and is supported by synoptic-scale eddy forcing in the upper troposphere. Its associated sea surface temperature anomalies exhibit a horseshoe-shaped structure in the North Pacific, most prominent in winter, which is driven by atmospheric circulation anomalies. The snow cover anomalies over the West Siberian plain and Central Siberian Plateau in autumn and spring and over southern Siberia in winter may act as a forcing influence on the ABNA pattern. The snow forcing influence in winter and spring can be traced back to the preceding season, which provides a predictability source for this teleconnection and for North American temperature variability. The ABNA associated energy budget is dominated by surface longwave radiation anomalies year-round, with the temperature anomalies supported by anomalous downward longwave radiation and damped by upward longwave radiation at the surface.

Numerical simulation and analysis of the April 2013 Chicago floods

DOE PAGES

Campos, Edwin; Wang, Jiali

2015-09-08

The weather event associated to record Chicago floods on April 2013 is investigated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Observations at Argonne National Laboratory and multi-sensor (weather radar and rain gauge) precipitation data from the National Weather Service were employed to evaluate the model’s performance. The WRF model captured the synoptic-scale atmospheric features well, but the simulated 24-h accumulated precipitation and short-period temporal evolution of precipitation over the heavy-rain region were less successful. To investigate the potential reasons for the model bias, four supplementary sensitivity experiments using various microphysics schemes and cumulus parameterizations were designed. Of themore » five tested parameterizations, the WRF Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6) graupel scheme and Kain-Fritsch (KF) cumulus parameterization outperformed the others, such as Grell-Dévényi (GD) cumulus parameterization, which underestimated the precipitation by 30–50% on a regional-average scale. Morrison microphysics and KF outperformed the others for the spatial patterns of 24-h accumulated precipitation. The spatial correlation between observation and Morrison-KF was 0.45, higher than those for other simulations. All of the simulations underestimated the precipitation over northeastern Illinois (especially at Argonne) during 0400–0800 UTC 18 April because of weak ascending motion or small moisture. In conclusion, all of the simulations except WSM6-GD also underestimated the precipitation during 1200–1600 UTC 18 April because of weak southerly flow.« less

The aurora as a source of planetary-scale waves in the middle atmosphere. [atmospheric turbulence caused by auroral energy absorption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chiu, Y. T.; Straus, J. M.

1974-01-01

Photographs of global scale auroral forms taken by scanning radiometers onboard weather satellites in 1972 show that auroral bands exhibit well organized wave motion with typical zonal wave number of 5 or so. The scale size of these waves is in agreement with that of well organized neutral wind fields in the 150- to 200-km region during the geomagnetic storm of May 27, 1967. Further, the horizontal scale size revealed by these observations are in agreement with that of high altitude traveling ionospheric disturbances. It is conjectured that the geomagnetic storm is a source of planetary and synoptic scale neutral atmospheric waves in the middle atmosphere. Although there is, at present, no observation of substorm related waves of this scale size at mesospheric and stratospheric altitudes, the possible existence of a new source of waves of the proper scale size to trigger instabilities in middle atmospheric circulation systems may be significant in the study of lower atmospheric response to geomagnetic activity.

Multi-method, multi-scale geophysical observations in the Obsidian Pool Thermal Area, Yellowstone National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holbrook, W. S.; Carr, B.; Pasquet, S.; Sims, K. W. W.; Dickey, K.

2016-12-01

Despite the prominence of Yellowstone as the world's most active hydrothermal province, relatively little is known about the plumbing systems that link deeper hydrothermal fluids to the charismatic hot springs, geysers and mud pots at the surface. We present the results of a multi-method, multi-scale geophysical investigation of the Obsidian Pool Thermal Area (OPTA) in Yellowstone National Park. OPTA hosts acid-sulfate hot springs and mud pots with relatively low pH. We present the results of seismic refraction, electrical resistivity, time-domain EM (TEM), soil conductivity meter (EMI), and GPR data acquired in July 2016. There is a strong contrast in physical properties in the upper 50 m of the subsurface between the low-lying hydrothermal area and surrounding hills: the hydrothermal area has much lower seismic velocities ( 1 km/s vs 3 km/s) and electrical resistivity ( 20 ohm-m vs 300 ohm-m). A prominent zone of very low resistivity (<10 ohm-m) exists at about 20 m depth beneath all hydrothermal features. Poisson's ratio, calculated from P-wave refraction tomography and surface wave inversions, shows low values beneath the "frying pan," where gas is emerging in small fumaroles, suggesting that Poisson's ratio is an effective "gas detector" in hydrothermal areas. Near-surface resistivity mapped from EMI shows a strong correlation with hydrothermal areas previously mapped by heat flow, with areas of high heat flow generally having low resistivity near the surface. Two exceptions are (1) the "frying pan," which shows a central area of high resistivity (corresponding to escaping gas) surrounding by a halo of low resistivity, and (2) a broad area of low resistivity connecting the hydrothermal centers to the lake, which may be clay deposits. TEM data penetrate up to 200 m in depth and suggest that a reservoir of hydrothermal fluids may underlie the entire area, including beneath the forested hills, at depths greater than 100 m, but that they rise toward the surface in a 100-m-wide area just west of the frying pan. Our results show that synoptic, multi-scale geophysical measurements can place important constraints on the subsurface pathways of hydrothermal waters and gas.

Assessing Seasonal Transport and Deposition of Agricultural Emissions in Eastern North Carolina, U.S.A.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhome, J. R.; Niyogi, D. D. S.; Raman, S.

- There is an increasing interest regarding the fate of nitrogenous compounds emitted from agricultural activities in the southeastern United States. Varying climate, topography and proximity to the Atlantic Ocean particularly complicates the problem. An increased understanding of the interaction of synoptic scale flow with mesoscale circulations would constitute a significant improvement in the assessment of regional scale transport and deposition potential. This knowledge is necessary to facilitate current and future modeling attempts in the region as well as for planning future monitoring sites to develop a cohesive regional policy for the abatement strategies. The eastern portion of North Carolina is used as a case example due to its high, localized emission of nitrogen compounds from agricultural waste. Three periods: July 2-7, 1998, October 5-11, 1998, and December 12-19, 1998, corresponding to three different seasons were studied. Surface wind and thermodynamic patterns were analyzed using surface observing stations and archived-model analysis results centered over eastern North Carolina. Diurnal and seasonal patterns were identified for dispersion and concentration values obtained using an air pollution transport and dispersion model. This mesoscale information was used to draw qualitative conclusions regarding the possible trends and deviations in the dynamic trajectories as well as the resulting near-surface concentrations and deposition potential in eastern North Carolina. Results show that highly variable seasonal and diurnal atmospheric circulations characterize the study domain. These variations can significantly impact the transport and fate of pollutants released in this region. Generally, summer provides the highest potential for localized deposition, while fall can provide opportunity for long-range transport. The results also suggest that mean climatological or seasonally averaged flow patterns may not be sufficient for analyzing the fate of the agricultural releases in this region. At the very least, mean and variance based analysis is required to capture the climatology of the dispersion and deposition patterns. These patterns in eastern North Carolina appear to be sensitive to the strength and location of air mass boundaries along the coastal plain, indicating diverse scale interactions affecting the variability and uncertainty in the regional pollutant transport.

Relationships between convective storms and their environment in AVE IV determined from a three-dimensional subsynoptic-scale, trajectory model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, G. S.

1977-01-01

The paper describes interrelationships between synoptic-scale and convective-scale systems obtained by following individual air parcels as they traveled within the convective storm environment of AVE IV. (NASA's fourth Atmospheric Variability Experiment, AVE IV, was a 36-hour study in April 1975 of the atmospheric variability and structure in regions of convective storms.) A three-dimensional trajectory model was used to calculate parcel paths, and manually digitized radar was employed to locate convective activity of various intensities and to determine those trajectories that traversed the storm environment. Spatial and temporal interrelationships are demonstrated by reference to selected time periods of AVE IV which contain the development and movement of the squall line in which the Neosho tornado was created.

Midwinter Disturbances in the Middle Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Labitzke, K.

1984-01-01

The Middle Atmosphere is coupled to the troposphere during winter because planetary scale waves can propagate upwards if the prevailing winds are from the west. It is during this time of the year that the well-known midwinter disturbances are observed which ultimately affect the whole of the Middle Atmosphere. The mechanism of these disturbances is not completely understood. The large-scale circulation features up to the upper mesosphere are investigated to demonstrate the synoptic-scale behavior of the midwinter disturbances. Ground-based and satellite observations are combined. The interannual variability of the disturbances is discussed briefly. It is shown that the QBO (Quasi Biennial Oscillation) of the equatorial stratosphere appears to modulate the planetary waves during the northern winters, in the troposphere as well as in the Middle Atmosphere.

The influence of scales of atmospheric motion on air pollution over Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, Ana; Trigo, Ricardo; Mendes, Manuel; Jerez, Sonia; Gouveia, Célia Marina

2014-05-01

Air pollution is determined by the combination of different factors, namely, emissions, physical constrains, meteorology and chemical processes [1,2,3]. The relative importance of such factors is influenced by their interaction on diverse scales of atmospheric motion. Each scale depicts different meteorological conditions, which, when combined with the different air pollution sources and photochemistry, result in varying ambient concentrations [2]. Identifying the dominant scales of atmospheric motion over a given airshed can be of great importance for many applications such as air pollution and pollen dispersion or wind energy management [2]. Portugal has been affected by numerous air pollution episodes during the last decade. These episodes are often related to peak emissions from local industry or transport, but can also be associated to regional transport from other urban areas or to exceptional emission events, such as forest fires. This research aims to identify the scales of atmospheric motion which contribute to an increase of air pollution. A method is proposed for differentiating between the scales of atmospheric motion that can be applied on a daily basis from data collected at several wind-measuring sites in a given airshed and to reanalysis datasets. The method is based on the daily mean wind recirculation and the mean and standard deviation between sites. The determination of the thresholds between scales is performed empirically following the approach of Levy et al. [2] and also through a automatic statistical approach computed taking into account the tails of the distributions (e.g. 95% and 99% percentile) of the different wind samples. A comparison is made with two objective approaches: 1) daily synoptic classification for the same period over the region [4] and 2) a 3-D backward trajectory approach [5,6] for specific episodes. Furthermore, the outcomes are expected to support the Portuguese authorities on the implementation of strategies for a sustainable management of environmental risks. [1] Demuzere, M., Trigo, R.M., Vila-Guerau de Arellano, van Lipzig, N.P.M., 2009. The impact of weather and atmospheric circulation on O3 and PM10 levels at a rural mid-latitude site. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 2695-2714. [2] Levy, I., Dayan, U., Mahrer, Y., 2009. Differing atmospheric scales of motion and their impact on air pollutants. Int. J. Climatol. [3] Pearce, J., Beringer, J., Nicholls, N., Hyndman, R.J., Uotila, P., Tapper, N.J., 2011. Investigating the influence of synoptic-scale meteorology on air quality using self-organizing maps and generalized additive modeling. Atmospheric Environment, 45, 1, 128 - 136, doi 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.09.032. [4 Trigo, R.M., DaCamara, C.C., 2000. Circulation Weather Types and their impact on the precipitation regime in Portugal. Int. J. Climat., 20, 1559-1581. [5] Carvalho, A., Monteiro, A., Ribeiro, I., Tchepel, O., Miranda, A.I., Borrego, C., Saavedra, S., Souto, J.A., Casares, J.J., 2010. High ozone levels in the Northeast of Portugal: analysis and characterization. Atmospheric Environment, 44, 1020 - 1031. [6] Saavedra, S., Rodríguez, A., Taboada, J.J., Souto, J.A., Casares, J.J., 2012. Synoptic patterns and air mass transport during ozone episodes in northwestern Iberia. Sci Total Environ., 441, 97-110. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.09.014.

Climatic Redistribution of Canada's Water Resources (CROCWR): An analysis of spatial and temporal hydrological trends and patterns in western Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bawden, A. J.; Burn, D. H.; Prowse, T. D.

2012-12-01

Climate variability and change can have profound impacts on the hydrologic regime of a watershed. These effects are likely to be especially severe in regions particularly sensitive to changes in climate, such as the Canadian north, or when there are other stresses on the hydrologic regime, such as may occur when there are large withdrawals from, or land-use changes within, a watershed. A recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stressed that future climate is likely to accelerate the hydrologic cycle and hence may affect water security in certain locations. For some regions, this will mean enhanced access to water resources, but because the effects will not be spatially uniform, other regions will experience reduced access. Understanding these patterns is critical for water managers and government agencies in western Canada - an area of highly contrasting hydroclimatic regimes and overlapping water-use and jurisdictional borders - as adapting to climate change may require reconsideration of inter-regional transfers and revised allocation of water resources to competing industrial sectors, including agriculture, hydroelectric production, and oil and gas. This research involves the detection and examination of spatial and temporal streamflow trends in western Canadian rivers as a response to changing climatic factors, including temperature, precipitation, snowmelt, and the synoptic patterns controlling these drivers. The study area, known as the CROCWR region, extends from the Pacific coast of British Columbia as far east as the Saskatchewan-Manitoba border and from the Canada-United States international border through a large portion of the Northwest Territories. This analysis examines hydrologic trends in monthly and annual streamflow for a collection of 34 hydrometric gauging stations believed to adequately represent the overall effects of climate variability and change on flows in western Canada by means of the Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test. Large-scale spatial patterns are determined through examination of trends and contrasts between upper and lower reaches of individual sub-basins, as well as via analysis of streamflow redistributions within the CROCWR region as an entirety (i.e. north, south, east and/or west-moving patterns). Results are used to predict future implications of hydroclimatic variability and change on western Canada's water resources and recommend measures to be taken by water managers in response to these changes. This research is part of a larger hydroclimatic study that includes an analysis of the climatic drivers contributing to shifting flow regimes in western Canada as well as a study of the controlling synoptic patterns and teleconnections associated with changes in these driving forces.

The influence of synoptic weather regimes on UK air quality: regional model studies of tropospheric column NO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, R. J.; Savage, N. H.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Ordóñez, C.; Neal, L. S.

2015-10-01

Synoptic meteorology can have a significant influence on UK air quality. Cyclonic conditions lead to the dispersion of air pollutants away from source regions, while anticyclonic conditions lead to their accumulation over source regions. Meteorology also modifies atmospheric chemistry processes such as photolysis and wet deposition. Previous studies have shown a relationship between observed satellite tropospheric column NO2 and synoptic meteorology in different seasons. Here, we test whether the UK Met Office Air Quality in the Unified Model (AQUM) can reproduce these observations and then use the model to explore the relative importance of various factors. We show that AQUM successfully captures the observed relationships when sampled under the Lamb weather types, an objective classification of midday UK circulation patterns. By using a range of idealized NOx-like tracers with different e-folding lifetimes, we show that under different synoptic regimes the NO2 lifetime in AQUM is approximately 6 h in summer and 12 h in winter. The longer lifetime can explain why synoptic spatial tropospheric column NO2 variations are more significant in winter compared to summer, due to less NO2 photochemical loss. We also show that cyclonic conditions have more seasonality in tropospheric column NO2 than anticyclonic conditions as they result in more extreme spatial departures from the wintertime seasonal average. Within a season (summer or winter) under different synoptic regimes, a large proportion of the spatial pattern in the UK tropospheric column NO2 field can be explained by the idealized model tracers, showing that transport is an important factor in governing the variability of UK air quality on seasonal synoptic timescales.

Synoptic volumetric variations and flushing of the Tampa Bay estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, M.; Meyers, S. D.; Luther, M. E.

2014-03-01

Two types of analyses are used to investigate the synoptic wind-driven flushing of Tampa Bay in response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle from 1950 to 2007. Hourly sea level elevations from the St. Petersburg tide gauge, and wind speed and direction from three different sites around Tampa Bay are used for the study. The zonal (u) and meridional (v) wind components are rotated clockwise by 40° to obtain axial and co-axial components according to the layout of the bay. First, we use the subtidal observed water level as a proxy for mean tidal height to estimate the rate of volumetric bay outflow. Second, we use wavelet analysis to bandpass sea level and wind data in the time-frequency domain to isolate the synoptic sea level and surface wind variance. For both analyses the long-term monthly climatology is removed and we focus on the volumetric and wavelet variance anomalies. The overall correlation between the Oceanic Niño Index and volumetric analysis is small due to the seasonal dependence of the ENSO response. The mean monthly climatology between the synoptic wavelet variance of elevation and axial winds are in close agreement. During the winter, El Niño (La Niña) increases (decreases) the synoptic variability, but decreases (increases) it during the summer. The difference in winter El Niño/La Niña wavelet variances is about 20 % of the climatological value, meaning that ENSO can swing the synoptic flushing of the bay by 0.22 bay volumes per month. These changes in circulation associated with synoptic variability have the potential to impact mixing and transport within the bay.

Numerical simulation of intense multi-scale vortices generated by supercell thunderstorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finley, Catherine Ann

1998-11-01

A nested grid primitive equation model (RAMS version 3b) is used to study various aspects of tornadoes and the thunderstorms that produce them. A unique aspect of these simulations is that the model was initialized with synoptic data, and telescoping grids allow atmospheric flows ranging from the synoptic-scale down to sub- tornado-scale vortices to be represented in the model. Two different case studies were simulated in this study: June 30, 1993, and May 15, 1991. The June 30, 1993, simulation produced a classical supercell storm which developed at the intersection between a stationary front and an outflow boundary generated by previous convection. As the simulation progressed, additional storms developed west of the main storm along the stationary front. One of these storms interacted with the main storm to produce a single supercell storm. This storm had many characteristics of a high-precipitation (HP) supercell, and eventually evolved into a bow-echo. The transition of the storm into a bow-echo is discussed and possible physical processes responsible for the transition are presented. The June 30, 1993, simulated supercell produced two weak tornadoes. The first tornado developed along the flanking line of the storm to the southeast of the mesocyclone. The second tornado developed along a strong horizontal shear zone beneath the rotating comma-head structure of the HP supercell. Neither tornado was clearly linked to the mesocyclone in the parent storm, and both tornadoes formed first near the surface and then developed upward with time. Circulation and vorticity analyses were used to investigate the tornadogenesis process in this case. Results from these analyses indicated that the circulation associated with both tornadoes was already present at low-levels in the storm environment 15-20 minutes before the tornadoes developed. Although the baroclinic term associated with the downdraft air made a negligible contribution to the circulation in this case, the downdraft played an important role in tilting horizontal vorticity into the vertical just above the surface in the near tornado environment where horizontal convergence could then act to amplify it. A comparison with the proposed tornadogenesis process(es) in classical supercells is also presented. The May 15, 1991, simulation produced a classical supercell which developed along the dryline in the Texas panhandle. This supercell in turn produced a tornado which lasted for 50 minutes in the simulation. During a ten minute period toward the end of the simulation, six secondary vortices developed within the main tornado vortex. The simulated secondary vortices had many features in common with multiple-vortex tornadoes and secondary vortices produced in laboratory vortices. The evolution and structure of the simulated secondary vortices is presented, and physical mechanisms responsible for their development and dissipation are discussed.

The Life-Cycle of a Polar Low Observed with Research Aircraft Dropsondes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saetra, O.; Linders, T.

2008-12-01

The structure and life cycle of a polar low that formed over the ocean south of the Fram Strait on 3 and 4 March 2008 is described using GPS dropsondes from the DLR Falcon research aircraft and by AVHRR satellite images. Data from three successive flights during the life cycle of the polar low will be presented. The Norwegian IPY-THORPEX project carried out a field experiment between February and May 2008, aiming at investigating adverse weather in the Arctic. During the campaign period, the DLR Falcon aircraft was stationed at Andoya Airport in Northern Norway. On the evening 2 March the synoptic scale flow triggered a cold-air outbreak in the Fram Strait and the western Barents Sea. The weather analysis from the Norwegian weather service (met.no)indicated strong reversed shear flow (warm air to the left) and favorable conditions for the formations of polar lows. A flight for the next morning was planned. At the time of departure AVHRR satellite images of deep-convective clouds revealed the presence of an Arctic front in the northerly winds between Greenland and the Svalbard islands. During this flight 18 dropsondes were successfully released. A second flight was carried out later the same day, 3 March. At this time a meso-scale cyclone had formed at the southern tip of the Arctic Front. The cyclone was measured in three cross-sections with 14 successful sondes released. The night between 3 and 4 March the cyclone intensified and by the third flight a mature polar low was located outside the coast of Trondelag in Norway. The last flight was carried out, staring on the morning 4 March, making 4 cross-sections with 20 dropsondes. On the evening 4 March, shortly after the third flight, the polar low made landfall and faded rapidly.

The US DOE A2e Mesoscale to Microscale Coupling Project: Nonstationary Modeling Techniques and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haupt, Sue Ellen; Kosovic, Branko; Shaw, William

2017-04-01

The purpose of the US DOE's Mesoscale-Microscale Coupling (MMC) Project is to develop, verify, and validate physical models and modeling techniques that bridge the most important atmospheric scales that determine wind plant performance and reliability. As part of DOE's Atmosphere to Electrons (A2e) program, the MMC project seeks to create a new predictive numerical simulation capability that is able to represent the full range of atmospheric flow conditions impacting wind plant performance. The recent focus of MMC has been on nonstationary conditions over flat terrain. These nonstationary cases are critical for wind energy and represent a primary need for mesoscale meteorological forcing of the microscale models. The MMC team modeled two types of non-stationary cases: 1) diurnal cycles in which the daytime convective boundary layer collapses with the setting of the sun when the surface heat flux changes from positive to negative, passing through a brief period of neutral stability before becoming stable, with smaller scale turbulence and the potential for low level jet (LLJ) formation; and 2) frontal passage as an example of a synoptic weather event that may cause relatively rapid changes in wind speed and direction. The team compared and contrasted two primary techniques for non-stationary forcing of the microscale by the mesoscale model. The first is to use the tendencies from the mesoscale model to directly force the microscale mode. The second method is to couple not only the microscale domain's internal forcing parameters, but also its lateral boundaries, to a mesoscale simulation. While the boundary coupled approach provides the greatest generality, since the mesoscale flow information providing the lateral boundary information for the microscale domain contains no explicit turbulence information, the approach requires methods to accelerate turbulence production at the microscale domain's inflow boundaries. Forefront assessment strategies, including comparing spectra and cospectra, were used to assess the techniques. Testing methods to initialize turbulence at the microscale was also accomplished.

Relationship between AOD and synoptic circulation over the Eastern Mediterranean: A comparison between subjective and objective classifications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodenheimer, Shalev; Nirel, Ronit; Lensky, Itamar M.; Dayan, Uri

2018-03-01

The Eastern Mediterranean (EM) Basin is strongly affected by dust originating from two of the largest world sources: The Sahara Desert and the Arabian Peninsula. Climatologically, the distribution pattern of aerosol optical depth (AOD), as proxy to particulate matter (PM), is known to be correlated with synoptic circulation. The climatological relationship between circulation type classifications (CTCs) and AOD levels over the EM Basin ("synoptic skill") was examined for the years 2000-2014. We compared the association between subjective (expert-based) and objective (fully automated) classifications and AOD using autoregressive models. After seasonal adjustment, the mean values of R2 for the different methods were similar. However, the distinct spatial pattern of the R2 values suggests that subjective classifications perform better in their area of expertise, specifically in the southeast region of the study area, while, objective CTCs had better synoptic skill over the northern part of the EM. This higher synoptic skill of subjective CTCs stem from their ability to identify distinct circulation types (e.g. Sharav lows and winter lows) that are infrequent but are highly correlated with AOD. Notably, a simple CTC based on seasonality rather than meteorological parameters predicted well AOD levels, especially over the south-eastern part of the domain. Synoptic classifications that are area-oriented are likely better predictors of AOD and possibly other environmental variables.

Observational and numerical studies of the low-level jet stream in the atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Djuric, D.

1986-01-01

Two cases of low-level jet (LLJ) support the hypothesis that the LLJ is an integral part of synoptic-scale cyclogenesis. The appearance of an arch with a row of cumulonimbus is discovered at the front of the LLJ. The inertia oscillations in the LLJ are pointed out as part of the quasi-diurnal variation. A plan for further research by numerical modelling is proposed, which will bring more clarification of the mechanics of the LLJ.

Interactions Between Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations and Synoptic-Scale Disturbances over the Western North Pacific, Part I: Energetics Diagnosis

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-08-23

typhoon. Part I: Satel- lite data analyses. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 1377–1389. ——, ——, X. Ge, B. Wang, and M. Peng, 2003: Satellite data analysis and numerical...is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining...the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this

Spaceborne imaging radar - Geologic and oceanographic applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elachi, C.

1980-01-01

Synoptic, large-area radar images of the earth's land and ocean surface, obtained from the Seasat orbiting spacecraft, show the potential for geologic mapping and for monitoring of ocean surface patterns. Structural and topographic features such as lineaments, anticlines, folds and domes, drainage patterns, stratification, and roughness units can be mapped. Ocean surface waves, internal waves, current boundaries, and large-scale eddies have been observed in numerous images taken by the Seasat imaging radar. This article gives an illustrated overview of these applications.

Investigation of the agricultural resources in Sri Lanka

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Silva, A. T. M.; Nanayakkara, S. D. F. C.; Herath, L. S. K. B. (Principal Investigator)

1976-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. It is observed that LANDSAT data is easily adaptable to photogrammetric techniques. With such adaptations, revision of topographic or thematic maps can be performed at very little cost. Revision of maps up to scale 1:100,000 (or better) can be performed. The LANDSAT image has definite advantages over the standard methods in areas of extensive development where the synoptic view of the LANDSAT image offers the required control in the form of distant mapped data in one frame.

Heterogeneous nucleation and its relationship to precipitation type. Technical memo

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, G.

1995-04-01

The purpose of this study is to present important elements of cloud microphysics that will be useful to the operational meteorologist in determining precipitation type. Synoptic-scale environments and vertical atmospheric structures of cases, where freezing precipitation occurred, will be examined. Furthermore, only cases in which the entire depth of the troposphere was below freezing are studied. The absences of lower tropospheric warm layers (above freezing) suggest that the primary atmospheric process that influenced precipitation type was heterogeneous nucleation rather than melting.

Synoptic weather types and aeroallergens modify the effect of air pollution on hospitalisations for asthma hospitalisations in Canadian cities.

PubMed

Hebbern, Christopher; Cakmak, Sabit

2015-09-01

Pollution levels and the effect of air pollution on human health can be modified by synoptic weather type and aeroallergens. We investigated the effect modification of aeroallergens on the association between CO, O3, NO2, SO2, PM10, PM2.5 and asthma hospitalisation rates in seven synoptic weather types. We developed single air pollutant models, adjusted for the effect of aeroallergens and stratified by synoptic weather type, and pooled relative risk estimates for asthma hospitalisation in ten Canadian cities. Aeroallergens significantly modified the relative risk in 19 pollutant-weather type combinations, reducing the size and variance for each single pollutant model. However, aeroallergens did not significantly modify relative risk for any pollutant in the DT or MT weather types, or for PM10 in any weather type. Thus, there is a modifying effect of aeroallergens on the association between CO, O3, NO2, SO2, PM2.5 and asthma hospitalisations that differs under specific synoptic weather types. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Storm-Based Fluvial Inputs: Nutrient, Phytoplankton, and Carbon Dioxide Responses in a Tropical Embayment, Kane'ohe Bay, Hawai'i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drupp, P. S.; de Carlo, E. H.; MacKenzie, F. T.; Bienfang, P.

2010-12-01

This work describes use of a buoy system to monitor, autonomously, pCO2 and water quality responses to land-derived nutrient inputs and the physical forcings associated with local storm events. These data represent 2.5 years of near-real time observations at a fixed station, collected concurrently with spatially distributed synoptic sampling over larger sections of Kaneohe Bay, Oahu, Hawaii. Nutrient loadings from direct rainfall and/or terrestrial runoff produce an immediate increase in the N:P ratio of bay waters up to 48, and drive phytoplankton biomass growth. Rapid uptake of nutrient input subsidies by phytoplankton causes a rapid decline of pCO2 and nitrogen, before a return to baseline levels with the subsequent decline of phytoplankton biomass over time scales ranging from a few days to several weeks, depending on the conditions and proximity to the sources of runoff. This work exemplifies the utility of combining synoptic sampling and real-time autonomous observations to elucidate the responses of coastal tropical coral reef systems to climatic perturbations over the array of time scales (hours to annual) on which they occur. Many subtropical and tropical systems throughout the Pacific Ocean are similar to Kaneohe Bay and our studies of how coral reef ecosystems respond under conditions of increased ocean acidification provides an important indication of the variability and range of CO2 dynamics that are likely to exist elsewhere. Such variability must be taken into account in any analysis of the direction and magnitude of the air-sea CO2 exchange for the integrated coastal ocean, both proximal and distal. Finally, it cannot be overemphasized that our work illustrates several examples of how high frequency sampling provided by a moored autonomous system can provide details about ecosystem responses to stochastic atmospheric forcing, which are commonly missed by traditional synoptic observational approaches. Figure 1: pCO2 levels and nitrate concentrations from 9/27/07 - 12/10/07. Storm events on 11/4 and 12/4 lead to a spike in nitrate and a corresponding drawdown of pCO2 due to phytoplankton blooms in response to the nutrient subsidy.

New perspectives on the synoptic and mesoscale structure of Hurricane Catarina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira Filho, Augusto José; Pezza, Alexandre Bernardes; Simmonds, Ian; Lima, Raquel Silva; Vianna, Marcio

2010-02-01

This work explores in detail synoptic and mesoscale features of Hurricane Catarina during its life cycle from a decaying baroclinic wave to a tropical depression that underwent tropical transition (TT) and finally to a Category 2 hurricane at landfall over Santa Catarina State coast, southern Brazil. This unique system caused 11 deaths mostly off the Brazilian coast and an estimated half billion dollars in damage in a matter of a few hours on 28 March 2004. Although the closest meteorological station available was tens of kilometres away from the eye, in situ meteorological measurements provided by a work-team sent to the area where the eye made landfall unequivocally reproduces the tropical signature with category 2 strength, adding to previous analysis where this data was not available. Further analyses are based mostly on remote sensing data available at the time of the event. A classic dipole blocking set synoptic conditions for Hurricane Catarina to develop, dynamically contributing to the low wind shear observed. On the other hand, on its westward transit, large scale subsidence limited its strength and vertical development. Catarina had relatively cool SST conditions, but this was mitigated by favourable air-sea fluxes leading to latent heat release-driven processes during the mature phase. The ocean's dynamic topography also suggested the presence of nearby warm core rings which may have facilitated the transition and post-transition intensification. Since there were no records of such a system at least in the past 30 years and given that SSTs were generally below 26 °C and vertical shear was usually strong, despite all satellite data available, the system was initially classified as an extratropical cyclone. Here we hypothesise that this categorization was based on inadequate regional scale model outputs which did not account for the importance of the latent heat fluxes over the ocean. Hurricane Catarina represents a dramatic event on weather systems in South America. It has attracted attention worldwide and poses questions as whether or not it is a symptom of global warming.

The Effect of Atmospheric Diabatic Heating on Low-Frequency Oscillations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yen, Ming-Cheng

1990-01-01

A diagnostic scheme is devised to illustrate a chain relationship between diabatic heating and planetary -scale divergent and rotational circulations. The scheme consists of the velocity-potential (chi) maintenance equation, which relates diabatic heating and velocity potential, and the streamfunction (psi ) budget equation, which depicts the streamfunction tendency caused by the imbalance between streamfunction tendencies induced by vorticity advection and source. The proposed scheme is employed to examine the effect of tropical diabatic heating on the annual variation of subtropical jet streams. Furthermore, the chi -maintenance analysis is used to examine how the 30-60 day oscillation of planetary-scale divergent circulation is maintained; and the psi-budget analysis is performed to illustrate how the 30-60 day velocity potential (~{chi}) mode interacts with the upper-level monsoon flow to induce the 30-60 day oscillation of the tropical easterly jet. It was found that annual variations of both tropical diabatic heating and planetary-scale divergent circulation exhibit an annual in-phase seesaw oscillation between the winter and summer hemispheres. The annual variation of subtropical jet streams is caused by the adjustment of atmospheric rotational flow through planetary-scale divergent circulation in response to the annual cycle of tropical diabatic heating. The chi-maintenance equation is expressed as chi = chi _sp{rm Q}{.} - chi_{rm HA} , where chi_sp{rm Q}{.} and chi_ {rm HA} are the effects of vertical differential diabatic and adiabatic heating, respectively. The 30-60 day chi oscillation is shown to be primarily maintained by the differential diabatic heating effect, which can be inferred from the H _{rm VD} anomalies, the Laplician of the filtered chi_sp{rm Q}{.} anomalies. The resemblance of the H_{rm VD} and OLR anomalies in terms of the geographic distributions indicates that the differential diabatic heating effect maintaining the 30-60 day chi oscillation is attributable to the latent heat released by cumulus convection. The synoptic relationship among (~ {chi}, nabla~ {chi}) (200 mb), OLR and ~{psi} (200 mb) makes clear the synchronization of the 30-60 day oscillation of the tropical easterly jet and the Somali jet. The significant outcome of the psi-budget analysis demonstrates that the 30-60 day oscillation of the southern part of the tropical easterly jet is a response of the upper-level monsoon circulation to the eastward propagating ~{chi} mode.

The impact of radiatively active water-ice clouds on Martian mesoscale atmospheric circulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spiga, A.; Madeleine, J.-B.; Hinson, D.; Navarro, T.; Forget, F.

2014-04-01

Background and Goals Water ice clouds are a key component of the Martian climate [1]. Understanding the properties of the Martian water ice clouds is crucial to constrain the Red Planet's climate and hydrological cycle both in the present and in the past [2]. In recent years, this statement have become all the more true as it was shown that the radiative effects of water ice clouds is far from being as negligible as hitherto believed; water ice clouds plays instead a key role in the large-scale thermal structure and dynamics of the Martian atmosphere [3, 4, 5]. Nevertheless, the radiative effect of water ice clouds at lower scales than the large synoptic scale (the so-called meso-scales) is still left to be explored. Here we use for the first time mesoscale modeling with radiatively active water ice clouds to address this open question.

Situational Lightning Climatologies for Central Florida: Phase V

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III

2011-01-01

The AMU added three years of data to the POR from the previous work resulting in a 22-year POR for the warm season months from 1989-2010. In addition to the flow regime stratification, moisture and stability stratifications were added to separate more active from less active lighting days within the same flow regime. The parameters used for moisture and stability stratifications were PWAT and TI which were derived from sounding data at four Florida radiosonde sites. Lightning data consisted of NLDN CG lightning flashes within 30 NM of each airfield. The AMU increased the number of airfields from nine to thirty-six which included the SLF, CCAFS, PAFB and thirty-three airfields across Florida. The NWS MLB requested the AMU calculate lightning climatologies for additional airfields that they support as a backup to NWS TBW which was then expanded to include airfields supported by NWS JAX and NWS MFL. The updated climatologies of lightning probabilities are based on revised synoptic-scale flow regimes over the Florida peninsula (Lambert 2007) for 5-, 10-, 20- and 30-NM radius range rings around the thirty-six airfields in 1-, 3- and 6-hour increments. The lightning, flow regime, moisture and stability data were processed in S-PLUS software using scripts written by the AMU to automate much of the data processing. The S-PLUS data files were exported to Excel to allow the files to be combined in Excel Workbooks for easier data handling and to create the tables and charts for the Gill. The AMU revised the Gill developed in the previous phase (Bauman 2009) with the new data and provided users with an updated HTML tool to display and manipulate the data and corresponding charts. The tool can be used with most web browsers and is computer operating system independent. The AMU delivered two Gills - one with just the PWAT stratification and one with both the PWAT and TI stratifications due to insufficient data in some of the PWATITI stratification combinations. This will allow the forecasters to choose a moisture-only or moisture/stability stratification depending on the flow regime and available data.

Seasonal Distributions of Global Ocean Chlorophyll and Nutrients: Analysis with a Coupled Ocean General Circulation Biogeochemical, and Radiative Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.

1999-01-01

A coupled general ocean circulation, biogeochemical, and radiative model was constructed to evaluate and understand the nature of seasonal variability of chlorophyll and nutrients in the global oceans. The model is driven by climatological meteorological conditions, cloud cover, and sea surface temperature. Biogeochemical processes in the model are determined from the influences of circulation and turbulence dynamics, irradiance availability, and the interactions among three functional phytoplankton groups (diatoms, chorophytes, and picoplankton) and three nutrient groups (nitrate, ammonium, and silicate). Phytoplankton groups are initialized as homogeneous fields horizontally and vertically, and allowed to distribute themselves according to the prevailing conditions. Basin-scale model chlorophyll results are in very good agreement with CZCS pigments in virtually every global region. Seasonal variability observed in the CZCS is also well represented in the model. Synoptic scale (100-1000 km) comparisons of imagery are also in good conformance, although occasional departures are apparent. Agreement of nitrate distributions with in situ data is even better, including seasonal dynamics, except for the equatorial Atlantic. The good agreement of the model with satellite and in situ data sources indicates that the model dynamics realistically simulate phytoplankton and nutrient dynamics on synoptic scales. This is especially true given that initial conditions are homogenous chlorophyll fields. The success of the model in producing a reasonable representation of chlorophyll and nutrient distributions and seasonal variability in the global oceans is attributed to the application of a generalized, processes-driven approach as opposed to regional parameterization, and the existence of multiple phytoplankton groups with different physiological and physical properties. These factors enable the model to simultaneously represent the great diversity of physical, biological, chemical, and radiative environments encountered in the global oceans.

Techniques that Link Extreme Events to the Large Scale, Applied to California Heat Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grotjahn, R.

2015-12-01

Understanding the mechanisms how Californian Central Valley (CCV) summer extreme hot spells develop is very important since the events have major impacts on the economy and human safety. Results from a series of CCV heat wave studies will be presented, emphasizing the techniques used. Key larger scale elements are identified statistically that are also consistent with synoptic and dynamic understanding of what must be present during extreme heat. Beyond providing a clear synoptic explanation, these key elements have high predictability, in part because soil moisture has little annual variation in the heavily-irrigated CCV. In turn, the predictability naturally leads to an effective tool to assess climate model simulation of these heat waves in historical and future climate scenarios. (Does the model develop extreme heat for the correct reasons?) Further work identified that these large scale elements arise in two quite different ways: one from expansion southwestward of a pre-existing heat wave in southwest Canada, the other formed in place from parcels traversing the North Pacific. The pre-existing heat wave explains an early result showing correlation between heat waves in Sacramento California, and other locations along the US west coast, including distant Seattle Washington. CCV heat waves can be preceded by unusually strong tropical Indian Ocean and Indonesian convection, this partial link may occur through an Asian subtropical jet wave guide. Another link revealed by diagnostics is a middle and higher latitude source of wave activity in Siberia and East Asia that also leads to the development of the CCV heat wave. This talk will address as many of these results and the tools used to obtain them as is reasonable within the available time.

Comparison of the ocean surface vector winds from atmospheric reanalysis and scatterometer-based wind products over the Nordic Seas and the northern North Atlantic and their application for ocean modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dukhovskoy, Dmitry S.; Bourassa, Mark A.; Petersen, Gudrún Nína; Steffen, John

2017-03-01

Ocean surface vector wind fields from reanalysis data sets and scatterometer-derived gridded products are analyzed over the Nordic Seas and the northern North Atlantic for the time period from 2000 to 2009. The data sets include the National Center for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis 2 (NCEPR2), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR), Cross-Calibrated Multiplatform (CCMP) wind product version 1.1 and recently released version 2.0, and QuikSCAT. The goal of the study is to assess discrepancies across the wind vector fields in the data sets and demonstrate possible implications of these differences for ocean modeling. Large-scale and mesoscale characteristics of winds are compared at interannual, seasonal, and synoptic timescales. A cyclone tracking methodology is developed and applied to the wind fields to compare cyclone characteristics in the data sets. Additionally, the winds are evaluated against observations collected from meteorological buoys deployed in the Iceland and Irminger Seas. The agreement among the wind fields is better for longer time and larger spatial scales. The discrepancies are clearly apparent for synoptic timescales and mesoscales. CCMP, ASR, and CFSR show the closest overall agreement with each other. Substantial biases are found in the NCEPR2 winds. Numerical sensitivity experiments are conducted with a coupled ice-ocean model forced by different wind fields. The experiments demonstrate differences in the net surface heat fluxes during storms. In the experiment forced by NCEPR2 winds, there are discrepancies in the large-scale wind-driven ocean dynamics compared to the other experiments.

Environments of Long-Lived Mesoscale Convective Systems Over the Central United States in Convection Permitting Climate Simulations: Long-Lived Mesoscale Convective Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Qing; Houze, Robert A.; Leung, L. Ruby

Continental-scale convection-permitting simulations of the warm seasons of 2011 and 2012 reproduce realistic structure and frequency distribution of lifetime and event mean precipitation of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over the central United States. Analysis is performed to determine the environmental conditions conducive to generating the longest-lived MCSs and their subsequent interactions. The simulations show that MCSs systematically form over the Great Plains ahead of a trough in the westerlies in combination with an enhanced low-level jet from the Gulf of Mexico. These environmental properties at the time of storm initiation are most prominent for the MCSs that persist for themore » longest times. Systems reaching 9 h or more in lifetime exhibit feedback to the environment conditions through diabatic heating in the MCS stratiform regions. As a result, the parent synoptic-scale wave is strengthened as a divergent perturbation develops over the MCS at high levels, while a cyclonic circulation perturbation develops in the midlevels of the trough, where the vertical gradient of heating in the MCS region is maximized. The quasi-balanced mesoscale vortex helps to maintain the MCS over a long period of time by feeding dry, cool air into the environment at the rear of the MCS region, so that the MCS can draw in air that increases the evaporative cooling that helps maintain the MCS. At lower levels the south-southeasterly jet of warm moist air from the Gulf is enhanced in the presence of the synoptic-scale wave. That moisture supply is essential to the continued redevelopment of the MCS.« less

Spatial and temporal variations of aerosols around Beijing in summer 2006: Model evaluation and source apportionment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsui, H.; Koike, M.; Kondo, Y.; Takegawa, N.; Kita, K.; Miyazaki, Y.; Hu, M.; Chang, S.-Y.; Blake, D. R.; Fast, J. D.; Zaveri, R. A.; Streets, D. G.; Zhang, Q.; Zhu, T.

2009-01-01

Regional aerosol model calculations were made using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) and WRF-chem models to study spatial and temporal variations of aerosols around Beijing, China, in the summer of 2006, when the Campaigns of Air Quality Research in Beijing and Surrounding Region 2006 (CAREBeijing) intensive campaign was conducted. Model calculations captured temporal variations of primary (such as elemental carbon (EC)) and secondary (such as sulfate) aerosols observed in and around Beijing. The spatial distributions of aerosol optical depth observed by the MODIS satellite sensors were also reproduced over northeast China. Model calculations showed distinct differences in spatial distributions between primary and secondary aerosols in association with synoptic-scale meteorology. Secondary aerosols increased in air around Beijing on a scale of about 1000 × 1000 km2 under an anticyclonic pressure system. This air mass was transported northward from the high anthropogenic emission area extending south of Beijing with continuous photochemical production. Subsequent cold front passage brought clean air from the north, and polluted air around Beijing was swept to the south of Beijing. This cycle was repeated about once a week and was found to be responsible for observed enhancements/reductions of aerosols at the intensive measurement sites. In contrast to secondary aerosols, the spatial distributions of primary aerosols (EC) reflected those of emissions, resulting in only slight variability despite the changes in synoptic-scale meteorology. In accordance with these results, source apportionment simulations revealed that primary aerosols around Beijing were controlled by emissions within 100 km around Beijing within the preceding 24 h, while emissions as far as 500 km and within the preceding 3 days were found to affect secondary aerosols.

Upper-Tropospheric Synoptic-Scale Waves. Part II: Maintenance and Excitation of Quasi Modes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivest, Chantal; Farrell, Brian F.

1992-11-01

In a preceding paper a simple dynamical model for the maintenance of upper-tropospheric waves was proposed: the upper-level Eady normal modes. In this paper it is shown that these modes have counterparts in basic states with positive tropospheric gradients of potential vorticity, and that these counterparts can be maintained and excited on time scales consistent with observations.In the presence of infinitesimal positive tropospheric gradients of potential vorticity, the upper-level normal-mode solutions no longer exist. That the normal-mode solution disappears when gradients are infinitesimal represents an apparent singularity and challenges the interpretation of upper-level synoptic-scale waves as related to the upper-level Eady normal modes. What happens to the upper-level modal solution in the presence of tropospheric gradients of potential vorticity is examined in a series of initial-value experiments. Our results show that they become slowly decaying quasi modes. Mathematically the quasi modes consist of a superposition of singular modes sharply peaked in the phase speed domain, and their decay proceeds as the modes interfere with one another. We repeat these experiments in basic states with a smooth tropopause in the presence of tropospheric and stratospheric gradients, and similar results are obtained.Following a previous study by Farrell, a class of near-optimal initial conditions for the excitation of upper-level waves is identified. The initial conditions consist of upper-tropospheric disturbances that lean against the shear. They strongly excite upper-level waves not only in the absence of tropospheric potential vorticity gradients, but also in their presence. This result is important mathematically since it suggests that quasi modes are as likely to emerge from favorably configured initial disturbances as true normal modes, although the excitation is followed by a slow decay.

The mistral and its effect on air pollution transport and vertical mixing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corsmeier, U.; Behrendt, R.; Drobinski, Ph.; Kottmeier, Ch.

2005-03-01

Within the framework of ESCOMPTE, the influence of local wind systems like land-sea/mountain-valley winds on the distribution of air pollutants in the southern part of the Rhône valley and the coastal regions of southern France was investigated. In addition, the influence of the mistral on the long-range transport and vertical mixing of such substances on July 1, 2001 was analyzed. The results of the measurements of this mistral situation show high concentrations of O 3 and NO 2 in the layer just above the PBL at the southern exit of the Rhône valley near Avignon. By measurements from airborne and ground-based platforms and numerical simulations with the "Local Model" (LM) of the German Weather Service (DWD), it is shown that the mistral develops according to the theory conceived by Pettré [J. Atmos. Sci. 39 (1982) 542-554]. The synoptic-scale northerly flow through the Rhône valley is accelerated up to a Froude number ( Fr) of 2.1, while the valley widens. Then, near the Mediterranean coast, a hydraulic jump occurs and Fr drops down to values below 1.0. High ozone concentrations of 112 ppb measured above the mistral layer disappear due to enhanced mixing after the flow has passed the hydraulic jump. There is some evidence that the ozone-rich air originates from the source region of greater Paris or upwind. The results confirm that regional wind systems associated with transport of trace gases in the high-grade industrialized Rhône valley can be successfully predicted using data of operational weather forecast models.

A Seasonal Air Transport Climatology for Kenya

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gatebe, C. K.; Tyson, P. D.; Annegarn, H.; Piketh, S.; Helas, G.

1998-01-01

A climatology of air transport to and from Kenya has been developed using kinematic trajectory modeling. Significant months for trajectory analysis have been determined from a classification of synoptic circulation fields. Five-point back and forward trajectory clusters to and from Kenya reveal that the transport corridors to Kenya are clearly bounded and well defined. Air reaching the country originates mainly from the Saharan region and northwestern Indian Ocean of the Arabian Sea in the northern hemisphere and from the Madagascan region of the Indian Ocean in the southern hemisphere. Transport from each of these source regions show distinctive annual cycles related to the northeasterly Asian monsoon and the southeasterly trade wind maximum over Kenya in May. The Saharan transport in the lower troposphere is at a maximum when the subtropical high over northern Africa is strongly developed in the boreal winter. Air reaching Kenya between 700 and 500 hPa is mainly from Sahara and northwest India Ocean flows in the months of January and March, which gives way to southwest Indian Ocean flow in May and November. In contrast, air reaching Kenya at 400 hPa is mainly from southwest Indian Ocean in January and March, which is replaced by Saharan transport in May and November. Transport of air from Kenya is invariant, both spatially and temporally, in the tropical easterlies to the Congo Basin and Atlantic Ocean in comparison to the transport to the country. Recirculation of air has also been observed, but on a limited and often local scale and not to the extent reported in southern Africa.

Canary Current and North Equatorial Current from an inverse box model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

HernáNdez-Guerra, Alonso; Fraile-Nuez, Eugenio; López-Laatzen, Federico; MartíNez, Antonio; Parrilla, Gregorio; VéLez-Belchí, Pedro

2005-12-01

The large-scale Canary Basin circulation is estimated from a box inverse model applied to hydrographic data from a quasi-synoptic survey carried out in September 2003. The cruise consisted of 76 full depth CTD and oxygen stations. Circulation is required to nearly conserve mass and anomalies of salinity and heat within layers bounded by neutral surfaces. It permits advective and diffusive exchange between layers and an adjustment of the Ekman transport and the freshwater flux divergences. The Canary Current at the thermocline layer transports a net mass of 4.7 ± 0.8 Sv southward north of the Canary Islands from the African coast to 19°W. It is divided into a northward circulation at a rate of 1.1 ± 0.5 Sv between the African coast and Lanzarote Island and a southward transport of 5.8 ± 0.6 Sv. It transports North Atlantic Central Water and organic matters advected offshore by the filaments protruding from the upwelling system off northwest Africa. At 24°N, the Canary Current feeds the North Equatorial Current that transports a mixture of North and South Atlantic Central Waters westward. In the intermediate layer a southwestward flow of 1.2 ± 1.1 Sv transports Mediterranean Water to the Subtropical Gyre, though the highest salt flux is transported by a meddy. Oxygen distribution and mass transport suggest a northeastward deep flow of a water mass colder than 2.2°C consisting of diluted Antarctic Bottom Water. The heat and freshwater divergences and the average dianeutral velocity and diffusion between the sections and the African coast are negligible.

Standardized synoptic cancer pathology reports - so what and who cares? A population-based satisfaction survey of 970 pathologists, surgeons, and oncologists.

PubMed

Lankshear, Sara; Srigley, John; McGowan, Thomas; Yurcan, Marta; Sawka, Carol

2013-11-01

Cancer Care Ontario implemented synoptic pathology reporting across Ontario, impacting the practice of pathologists, surgeons, and medical and radiation oncologists. The benefits of standardized synoptic pathology reporting include enhanced completeness and improved consistency in comparison with narrative reports, with reported challenges including increased workload and report turnaround time. To determine the impact of synoptic pathology reporting on physician satisfaction specific to practice and process. A descriptive, cross-sectional design was utilized involving 970 clinicians across 27 hospitals. An 11-item survey was developed to obtain information regarding timeliness, completeness, clarity, and usability. Open-ended questions were also employed to obtain qualitative comments. A 51% response rate was obtained, with descriptive statistics reporting that physicians perceive synoptic reports as significantly better than narrative reports. Correlation analysis revealed a moderately strong, positive relationship between respondents' perceptions of overall satisfaction with the level of information provided and perceptions of completeness for clinical decision making (r = 0.750, P < .001) and ease of finding information for clinical decision making (r = 0.663, P < .001). Dependent t tests showed a statistically significant difference in the satisfaction scores of pathologists and oncologists (t169 = 3.044, P = .003). Qualitative comments revealed technology-related issues as the most frequently cited factor impacting timeliness of report completion. This study provides evidence of strong physician satisfaction with synoptic cancer pathology reporting as a clinical decision support tool in the diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of cancer patients.

Gap flow in an Alpine valley during a shallow south fo¨hn event: Observations, numerical simulations and hydraulic analogue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flamant, C.; Drobinski, P.; Nance, L.; Banta, R.; Darby, L.; Dusek, J.; Hardesty, M.; Pelon, J.; Richard, E.

2002-04-01

This paper examines the three-dimensional structure and dynamics of southerly hybrid gap/mountain flow through the Wipp valley (Wipptal), Austria, observed on 30 October 1999 using high-resolution observations and model simulations. The observations were obtained during a shallow south föhn event documented in the framework of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). Three important data sources were used: the airborne differential-absorption lidar LEANDRE 2, the ground-based Doppler lidar TEACO2 and in situ measurements from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration P-3 aircraft. This event was simulated down to 2 km horizontal resolution using the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model Meso-NH. The structure and dynamics of the flow were realistically simulated. The combination of high-resolution observations and numerical simulations provided a comprehensive three-dimensional picture of the flow through the Wipptal: in the gap entrance region (Brenner Pass, Austria), the low-level jet was not solely due to the channelling of the southerly synoptic flow through the elevated gap. Part of the Wipptal flow originated as a mountain wave at the valley head wall of the Brenner Pass. Downstream of the pass, the shallow föhn flow had the characteristics of a downslope windstorm as it rushed down towards the Inn valley (Inntal) and the City of Innsbruck, Austria. Downhill of the Brenner Pass, the strongest flow was observed over a small obstacle along the western side wall (the Nösslachjoch), rather than channelled in the deeper part of the valley just to the east. Further north, the low-level jet was observed in the centre of the valley. Approximately halfway between Brenner Pass and Innsbruck, where the along-axis direction of the valley changes from north to north-north-west, the low-level jet was observed to be deflected to the eastern side wall of the Wipptal. Interaction between the Stubaier Alpen (the largest and highest topographic feature to the west of the Wipptal) and the south-westerly synoptic flow was found to be the primary mechanism responsible for the deflection. The along- and cross-valley structure and dynamics of the flow were observed to be highly variable due to the influence of surrounding mountains, localized steep slopes within the valley and outflows from tributaries (the Gschnitztal and the Stubaital) to the west of the Wipptal. For that shallow föhn case, observations and simulations provided a large body of evidence that downslope flow created thinning/thickening fluid and accelerations/decelerations reminiscent of mountain wave/hydraulic theory. Along the Wipptal, two hydraulic-jump-like transitions were observed and simulated, (i) on the lee slope of the Nösslachjoch and (ii) in the Gschnitztal exit region. A hydraulic solution of the flow was calculated in the framework of reduced-gravity shallow-water theory. The down-valley evolution of the Froude number computed using LEANDRE 2, P-3 flight level and TEACO2 measurements confirmed that these transitions were associated with super- to subcritical transitions.

Large Scale Influences on Summertime Extreme Precipitation in the Northeastern United States.

PubMed

Marquardt Collow, Allison B; Bosilovich, Michael G; Koster, Randal D

2016-12-01

Observations indicate that over the last few decades there has been a statistically significant increase in precipitation in the Northeastern United States and that this can be attributed to an increase in precipitation associated with extreme precipitation events. Here we use a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis to examine such events in detail. Daily extreme precipitation events defined at the 75 th and 95 th percentile from gridded gauge observations are identified for a selected region within the Northeast. Atmospheric variables from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications - Version 2 (MERRA-2) are then composited during these events to illustrate the time evolution of associated synoptic structures, with a focus on vertically integrated water vapor fluxes, sea level pressure, and 500 hPa heights. Anomalies of these fields move into the region from the northwest, with stronger anomalies present in the 95 th percentile case. Although previous studies show tropical cyclones are responsible for the most intense extreme precipitation events, only 10% of the events in this study are caused by tropical cyclones. On the other hand, extreme events resulting from cut off low pressure systems have increased. The time period of the study was divided in half to determine how the mean composite has changed over time. An arc of lower sea level pressure along the east coast and a change in the vertical profile of equivalent potential temperature suggest a possible increase in the frequency or intensity of synoptic scale baroclinic disturbances.

Stable Isotope Analysis of Precipitation Samples Obtained via Crowdsourcing Reveals the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Superstorm Sandy

PubMed Central

Good, Stephen P.; Mallia, Derek V.; Lin, John C.; Bowen, Gabriel J.

2014-01-01

Extra-tropical cyclones, such as 2012 Superstorm Sandy, pose a significant climatic threat to the northeastern United Sates, yet prediction of hydrologic and thermodynamic processes within such systems is complicated by their interaction with mid-latitude water patterns as they move poleward. Fortunately, the evolution of these systems is also recorded in the stable isotope ratios of storm-associated precipitation and water vapor, and isotopic analysis provides constraints on difficult-to-observe cyclone dynamics. During Superstorm Sandy, a unique crowdsourced approach enabled 685 precipitation samples to be obtained for oxygen and hydrogen isotopic analysis, constituting the largest isotopic sampling of a synoptic-scale system to date. Isotopically, these waters span an enormous range of values (21‰ for O, 160‰ for H) and exhibit strong spatiotemporal structure. Low isotope ratios occurred predominantly in the west and south quadrants of the storm, indicating robust isotopic distillation that tracked the intensity of the storm's warm core. Elevated values of deuterium-excess (25‰) were found primarily in the New England region after Sandy made landfall. Isotope mass balance calculations and Lagrangian back-trajectory analysis suggest that these samples reflect the moistening of dry continental air entrained from a mid-latitude trough. These results demonstrate the power of rapid-response isotope monitoring to elucidate the structure and dynamics of water cycling within synoptic-scale systems and improve our understanding of storm evolution, hydroclimatological impacts, and paleo-storm proxies. PMID:24618882