North Atlantic weather regimes: A synoptic study of phase space. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orrhede, Anna Karin

1990-01-01

In the phase space of weather, low frequency variability (LFV) of the atmosphere can be captured in a large scale subspace, where a trajectory connects consecutive large scale weather maps, thus revealing flow changes and recurrences. Using this approach, Vautard applied the trajectory speed minimization method (Vautard and Legras) to atmospheric data. From 37 winters of 700 mb geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic and the adjacent land masses, four persistent and recurrent weather patterns, interpreted as weather regimes, were discernable: a blocking regime, a zonal regime, a Greenland anticyclone regime, and an Atlantic regime. These regimes are studied further in terms of maintenance and transitions. A regime survey unveils preferences regarding event durations and precursors for the onset or break of an event. The transition frequencies between regimes vary, and together with the transition times, suggest the existence of easier transition routes. These matters are more systematically studied using complete synoptic map sequences from a number of events.

Synoptic weather types and aeroallergens modify the effect of air pollution on hospitalisations for asthma hospitalisations in Canadian cities.

PubMed

Hebbern, Christopher; Cakmak, Sabit

2015-09-01

Pollution levels and the effect of air pollution on human health can be modified by synoptic weather type and aeroallergens. We investigated the effect modification of aeroallergens on the association between CO, O3, NO2, SO2, PM10, PM2.5 and asthma hospitalisation rates in seven synoptic weather types. We developed single air pollutant models, adjusted for the effect of aeroallergens and stratified by synoptic weather type, and pooled relative risk estimates for asthma hospitalisation in ten Canadian cities. Aeroallergens significantly modified the relative risk in 19 pollutant-weather type combinations, reducing the size and variance for each single pollutant model. However, aeroallergens did not significantly modify relative risk for any pollutant in the DT or MT weather types, or for PM10 in any weather type. Thus, there is a modifying effect of aeroallergens on the association between CO, O3, NO2, SO2, PM2.5 and asthma hospitalisations that differs under specific synoptic weather types. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A coupled synoptic-hydrological model for climate change impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilby, Robert; Greenfield, Brian; Glenny, Cathy

1994-01-01

A coupled atmospheric-hydrological model is presented. Sequences of daily rainfall occurrence for the 20 year period 1971-1990 at sites in the British Isles are related to the Lamb's Weather Types (LWT) by using conditional probabilities. Time series of circulation patterns and hence rainfall were then generated using a Markov representation of matrices of transition probabilities between weather types. The resultant precipitation data were used as input to a semidistributed catchment model to simulate daily flows. The combined model successfully reproduced aspects of the daily weather, precipitation and flow regimes. A range of synoptic scenarios were further investigated with particular reference to low flows in the River Coln, UK. The modelling approach represents a means of translating general circulation model (GCM) climate change predictions at the macro-scale into hydrological concerns at the catchment scale.

Climatic conditions preceding historically great fires in the North Central Region.

Treesearch

Donald A. Haines; Rodney W. Sando

1969-01-01

This paper examines the importance of various climatic variables before seven well-known fires of the past. Also, the 1871 synoptic weather pattern preceding the Chicago-Peshtigo-Michigan fire disaster is examined in detail.

Modelling wildfire activity in Iberia with different Atmospheric Circulation WTs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, P. M.; Trigo, R.; Pereira, M. G.; Rasilla, D.; Gouveia, C.

2012-04-01

This work focuses on the spatial and temporal variability of burnt area (BA) for the entire Iberian Peninsula (IP) and on the construction of statistical models to reproduce the inter-annual variability, based on Weather Types Classification (WTC). A common BA dataset was assembled for the first time for the entire Iberian Peninsula, by merging BA records for the 66 administrative regions of Portugal and Spain. A normalization procedure was then applied to the various size regions before performing a k-means cluster analysis to identify large areas characterized by similar fire regimes. The most compelling results were obtained for 4 clusters (Northwestern, Northern, Southwestern and Eastern) whose spatial patterns and seasonal fire regimes are shown to be related with constraining factors such as topography, vegetation cover and climate conditions. The response of fire burnt surface at monthly time scales to both long-term climatic pre-conditions and short-term synoptic forcing was assessed through correlation and regression analysis using: (i) temperature and precipitation from 2 to 7 months in advance to fire peak season; (ii) synoptic weather patterns derived from 11 distinct classifications derived under the COSTaction-733. Different responses were obtained for each of the considered regions: (i) a relevant link between BA and short-term synoptic forcing (represented by monthly frequencies of WTC) was identified for all clusters; (ii) long-term climatic preconditioning was relevant for all but one cluster (Northern). Taking into account these links, we developed stepwise regression models with the aim of reproducing the observed BA series (i.e. in hindcast mode). These models were based on the best climatic and synoptic circulation predictors identified previously. All models were cross-validated and their performance varies between clusters, though models exclusively based on WTCs tend to better reproduce annual BA time series than those only based on pre-conditioning climatic information. Nevertheless, the best results are attained when both synoptic and climatic predictors are used simultaneously as predictors, in particular for the two western clusters, where correlation coefficient values are higher than 0.7. Finally, we have used WTC composite maps to characterize the typical synoptic configurations that favor high values of BA. These patterns correspond to dry and warm fluxes, associated with anticyclonic regimes, which foster fire ignition (Pereira et al., 2005). Pereira, M.G., Trigo, R.M., DaCamara, C.C., Pereira, J.M.C., Leite, S.M., 2005: "Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal". Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 129, 11-25. COST733, 2011: "COST 733 Wiki - Harmonisation and Applications of Weather Type Classifications for European regions or COST733 spatial domains for Europe". Available at http://geo21.geo.uni-augsburg.de/cost733wiki/Cost733_Wiki_Main [accessed 1 September 2011].

The role of synoptic weather variability in Greenland ice sheet dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, J. M.; Radic, V.

2017-12-01

Much of the large uncertainty in predictions of future global sea level rise is due to our limited understanding of Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) motion and its interactions with climate. Over the next century, climate models predict that the GrIS will experience not only gradual warming, but also changes in atmospheric circulation, hydrology, and weather, including a northward shift of the North Atlantic storm track, with greater frequency and intensity of rain storms over the GrIS. Recent studies of GrIS dynamics have focused on the effects of increased seasonal mean meltwater on ice velocities, finding only a modest impact due to compensation by subglacial drainage systems, but subglacial hydraulic theory indicates that variability on shorter timescales is also relevant: short-term surges in meltwater or rainfall can overload drainage systems at rates faster than they can adjust, leading to water pressure spikes and ice acceleration. If the magnitude or frequency of these transient ice accelerations increase substantially as synoptic weather patterns change over the next century, there could be a significant cumulative impact on seasonal mean ice velocities. However, this issue has not been addressed in the literature and represents a major source of uncertainty. In this study, we investigate the role of synoptic weather variability in GrIS dynamics, with the ultimate goal of evaluating the relationships between extreme weather events and ice sheet flow in different seasons and regions of the GrIS. As a first step, we apply the machine learning technique of self-organizing maps to atmospheric reanalysis data to categorize the predominant synoptic weather systems over the GrIS domain, evaluating atmospheric moisture transport and rainfall to assess the impacts of each weather system on GrIS surface hydrology. The preliminary results presented here will be used in conjunction with ice velocity satellite measurements in future work, to identify any correlations between seasonal mean GrIS velocities and the frequency or intensity of storms during the season.

Process-based evaluation of the ÖKS15 Austrian climate scenarios: First results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendlik, Thomas; Truhetz, Heimo; Jury, Martin; Maraun, Douglas

2017-04-01

The climate scenarios for Austria from the ÖKS15 project consists of 13 downscaled and bias-corrected RCMs from the EURO-CORDEX project. This dataset is meant for the broad public and is now available at the central national archive for climate data (CCCA Data Center). Because of this huge public outreach it is absolutely necessary to objectively discuss the limitations of this dataset and to publish these limitations, which should also be understood by a non-scientific audience. Even though systematical climatological biases have been accounted for by the Scaled-Distribution-Mapping (SDM) bias-correction method, it is not guaranteed that the model biases have been removed for the right reasons. If climate scenarios do not get the patterns of synoptic variability right, biases will still prevail in certain weather patterns. Ultimately this will have consequences for the projected climate change signals. In this study we derive typical weather types in the Alpine Region based on patterns from mean sea level pressure from ERA-INTERIM data and check the occurrence of these synoptic phenomena in EURO-CORDEX data and their corresponding driving GCMs. Based on these weather patterns we analyze the remaining biases of the downscaled and bias-corrected scenarios. We argue that such a process-based evaluation is not only necessary from a scientific point of view, but can also help the broader public to understand the limitations of downscaled climate scenarios, as model errors can be interpreted in terms of everyday observable weather.

The Application of Synoptic Weather Forecasting Rules to Selected Weather Situations in the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kohler, Fred E.

The document describes the use of weather maps and data in teaching introductory college courses in synoptic meteorology. Students examine weather changes at three-hour intervals from data obtained from the "Monthly Summary of Local Climatological Data." Weather variables in the local summary include sky cover, air temperature, dew point, relative…

Relationship of Ground-level Ozone with Synoptic Weather Conditions in the Midwestern U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, P.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the relationship between ground-level ozone (O3) and synoptic weather conditions in the Midwestern U.S. over the period 1990-2015 using the air quality data obtained from the U.S. EPA Air Quality System (AQS) and meteorological data from NASA's Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis. The results show that among the six different types of Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) weather, the occurrence of dry tropical (DT) weather conditions is most likely to lead to high O3 concentrations. The summertime O3 concentrations in the Midwest decreased at an average rate of 0.7 ppb yr-1 in the 95th percentiles from 1990 to 2015 in response to NO2 emission controls. However, O3 has become more dependent on temperature since 2008 and this was accompanied by more frequent DT weather and air stagnation. The results have implications for the likely effect of future climate change on O3 as a result of modified synoptic weather conditions.

Synoptic-scale circulation patterns during summer derived from tree rings in mid-latitude Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seim, Andrea; Schultz, Johannes A.; Leland, Caroline; Davi, Nicole; Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa; Liang, Eryuan; Wang, Xiaochun; Beck, Christoph; Linderholm, Hans W.; Pederson, Neil

2017-09-01

Understanding past and recent climate and atmospheric circulation variability is vital for regions that are affected by climate extremes. In mid-latitude Asia, however, the synoptic climatology is complex and not yet fully understood. The aim of this study was to investigate dominant synoptic-scale circulation patterns during the summer season using a multi-species tree-ring width (TRW) network comprising 78 sites from mid-latitude Asia. For each TRW chronology, we calculated an atmospheric circulation tree-ring index (ACTI), based on 1000 hPa geopotential height data, to directly link tree growth to 13 summertime weather types and their associated local climate conditions for the period 1871-1993. Using the ACTI, three groups of similarly responding tree-ring sites can be associated with distinct large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns: 1. growth of drought sensitive trees is positively affected by a cyclone over northern Russia; 2. temperature sensitive trees show positive associations to a cyclone over northwestern Russia and an anticyclone over Mongolia; 3. trees at two high elevation sites show positive relations to a zonal cyclone extending from mid-latitude Eurasia to the West Pacific. The identified synoptic-scale circulation patterns showed spatiotemporal variability in their intensity and position, causing temporally varying climate conditions in mid-latitude Asia. Our results highlight that for regions with less pronounced atmospheric action centers during summer such as the occurrence of large-scale cyclones and anticyclones, synoptic-scale circulation patterns can be extracted and linked to the Northern Hemisphere circulation system. Thus, we provide a new and solid envelope for climate studies covering the past to the future.

Synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions associated with flash flooding in watersheds of the Catskill Mountains, New York, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teale, N. G.; Quiring, S. M.

2015-12-01

Understanding flash flooding is important in unfiltered watersheds, such as portions of the New York City water supply system (NYCWSS), as water quality is degraded by turbidity associated with flooding. To further understand flash flooding in watersheds of the NYCWSS, synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions most frequently associated with flash flooding between 1987 and 2013 were examined. Flash floods were identified during this time period using USGS 15-minute discharge data at the Esopus Creek near Allaben, NY and Neversink River at Claryville, NY gauges. Overall, 25 flash floods were detected, occurring over 17 separate flash flood days. These flash flood days were compared to the days on which flash flood warnings encompassing the study area was issued by the National Weather Service. The success rate for which the flash flood warnings for Ulster County coincided with flash flood in the study watershed was 0.09, demonstrating the highly localized nature of flash flooding in the Catskill Mountain region. The synoptic-scale atmospheric patterns influencing the study area were characterized by a principal component analysis and k-means clustering of NCEP/NCAR 500 mb geopotential height reanalysis data. This procedure was executed in Spatial Synoptic Typer Tools 4.0. While 17 unique synoptic patterns were identified, only 3 types were strongly associated with flash flooding events. A strong southwesterly flow suggesting advection of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico is shown in composites of these 3 types. This multiscalar study thereby links flash flooding in the NYCWSS with synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation.Understanding flash flooding is important in unfiltered watersheds, such as portions of the New York City water supply system (NYCWSS), as water quality is degraded by turbidity associated with flooding. To further understand flash flooding in watersheds of the NYCWSS, synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions most frequently associated with flash flooding between 1987 and 2013 were examined. Flash floods were identified during this time period using USGS 15-minute discharge data at the Esopus Creek near Allaben, NY and Neversink River at Claryville, NY gauges. Overall, 25 flash floods were detected, occurring over 17 separate flash flood days. These flash flood days were compared to the days on which flash flood warnings encompassing the study area was issued by the National Weather Service. The success rate for which the flash flood warnings for Ulster County coincided with flash flood in the study watershed was 0.09, demonstrating the highly localized nature of flash flooding in the Catskill Mountain region. The synoptic-scale atmospheric patterns influencing the study area were characterized by a principal component analysis and k-means clustering of NCEP/NCAR 500 mb geopotential height reanalysis data. This procedure was executed in Spatial Synoptic Typer Tools 4.0. While 17 unique synoptic patterns were identified, only 3 types were strongly associated with flash flooding events. A strong southwesterly flow suggesting advection of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico is shown in composites of these 3 types. This multiscalar study thereby links flash flooding in the NYCWSS with synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation.

An assessment of the Jenkinson and Collison synoptic classification to a continental mid-latitude location

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spellman, Greg

2017-05-01

A weather-type catalogue based on the Jenkinson and Collison method was developed for an area in south-west Russia for the period 1961-2010. Gridded sea level pressure data was obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. The resulting catalogue was analysed for frequency of individual types and groups of weather types to characterise long-term atmospheric circulation in this region. Overall, the most frequent type is anticyclonic (A) (23.3 %) followed by cyclonic (C) (11.9 %); however, there are some key seasonal patterns with westerly circulation being significantly more common in winter than summer. The utility of this synoptic classification is evaluated by modelling daily rainfall amounts. A low level of error is found using a simple model based on the prevailing weather type. Finally, characteristics of the circulation classification are compared to those for the original JC British Isles catalogue and a much more equal distribution of flow types is seen in the former classification.

Plausible Effect of Weather on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation with a Coupled General Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zedong; Wan, Xiuquan

2018-04-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a vital component of the global ocean circulation and the heat engine of the climate system. Through the use of a coupled general circulation model, this study examines the role of synoptic systems on the AMOC and presents evidence that internally generated high-frequency, synoptic-scale weather variability in the atmosphere could play a significant role in maintaining the overall strength and variability of the AMOC, thereby affecting climate variability and change. Results of a novel coupling technique show that the strength and variability of the AMOC are greatly reduced once the synoptic weather variability is suppressed in the coupled model. The strength and variability of the AMOC are closely linked to deep convection events at high latitudes, which could be strongly affected by the weather variability. Our results imply that synoptic weather systems are important in driving the AMOC and its variability. Thus, interactions between atmospheric weather variability and AMOC may be an important feedback mechanism of the global climate system and need to be taken into consideration in future climate change studies.

Comparative analysis of near-present and future synoptic conditions and their contribution to precipitation in central Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karacostas, Theodore S.; Bampzelis, Dimitrios; Karipidou, Symela; Pytharoulis, Ioannis; Tegoulias, Ioannis; Kartsios, Stergios; Kotsopoulos, Stylianos; Pakalidou, Nikoletta

2015-04-01

The objective on this study is to identify and categorize the daily synoptic circulation patterns encountered between the two periods, in near-present (2001-2010) and future (2041-2050), over the greater area of central and northern Greece, under the "DAPHNE" project (www.daphne-meteo.gr). The followed up statistical analyses and comparisons are focus on the demonstration of the differences in the frequency of occurrences of the synoptic situations between the two time periods, aiming at mitigating drought in central Greece by means of Weather Modification. Actually, within the context of the project, the daily synoptic circulation patterns encountered during the near-present ten-year period are identified and classified according to Karacostas et al. (1992) synoptic classification, into ten distinct synoptic conditions, based on the isobaric level of 500hPa. A similar procedure is adopted for the future period 2041-2050, by developing the mid-tropospheric synoptic circulation patterns through the RegCM3 regional climate model, under the IPCC scenario A1B. Results indicate that certain differences exist between near-present and future frequency distribution of occurrences of the synoptic situations over the study area. The northwest (NW) and southwest (SW) synoptic circulation patterns remain the most frequent synoptic conditions observed for both examined periods. The low pressure system activity over the area exhibit significant decrease during the future period, as it is depicted from the inter-comparison of the frequencies of the closed low (L-2) and cut-off low (L-3) systems. On the other hand, the unorganized synoptic conditions, which are mostly identified as high-low patterns (H-L), appear to increase considerably. The frequencies of zonal flow (ZON) and those of synoptic conditions associated with the presence of high-pressure system over the area, that is (H-1) and (H-2), remain almost unchanged between the two periods. The impact of the aforementioned differences in the frequencies of the synoptic conditions during the future period is examined on a yearly and seasonal basis. The contribution of each synoptic condition on the annual precipitation amounts are estimated for the near-present period, which coupled with the altered frequencies of the synoptic conditions for the future period, result to the future projected annual precipitation amounts. Possible decrease in precipitation amounts is indicated during the future period, as a result of the reduction in the frequencies of certain synoptic conditions associated with high amount of precipitation during the near-present conditions. Acknowledgments: This research work is part of DAPHNE project (11SYN_8_1088_TPE) which is co-funded by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek National Funds, through the action "COOPERATION 2011: Partnerships of Production and Research Institutions in Focused Research and Technology Sectors" in the framework of the operational programme "Competitiveness and Enterpreneurship" and Regions in Transition (OPC II, NSRF 2007-2013).

Regional severe particle pollution and its association with synoptic weather patterns in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu, Lei; Xie, Min; Gao, Da; Wang, Tijian; Fang, Dexian; Liu, Qian; Huang, Anning; Peng, Liwen

2017-11-01

Regional air pollution is significantly associated with dominant weather systems. In this study, the relationship between the particle pollution over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region and weather patterns is investigated. First, the pollution characteristics of particles in the YRD are studied using in situ monitoring data (PM2.5 and PM10) in 16 cities and Terra/MODIS AOD (aerosol optical depth) products collected from December 2013 to November 2014. The results show that the regional mean value of AOD is high in the YRD, with an annual mean value of 0.71±0.57. The annual mean particle concentrations in the cities of Jiangsu Province all exceed the national air quality standard. The pollution level is higher in inland areas, and the highest concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 are 79 and 130 µg m-3, respectively, in Nanjing. The PM2.5 : PM10 ratios are typically high, thus indicating that PM2.5 is the overwhelmingly dominant particle pollutant in the YRD. The wintertime peak of particle concentrations is tightly linked to the increased emissions during the heating season as well as adverse meteorological conditions. Second, based on NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis data, synoptic weather classification is conducted and five typical synoptic patterns are objectively identified. Finally, the synthetic analysis of meteorological fields and backward trajectories are applied to further clarify how these patterns impact particle concentrations. It is demonstrated that air pollution is more or less influenced by high-pressure systems. The relative position of the YRD to the anti-cyclonic circulation exerts significant effects on the air quality of the YRD. The YRD is largely influenced by polluted air masses from the northern and the southern inland areas when it is located at the rear of the East Asian major trough. The significant downward motion of air masses results in stable weather conditions, thereby hindering the diffusion of air pollutants. Thus, this pattern is quite favorable for the accumulation of pollutants in the YRD, resulting in higher regional mean PM10 (116.5 ± 66.9 µg m-3), PM2.5 (75.9 ± 49.9 µg m-3), and AOD (0.74) values. Moreover, this pattern is also responsible for the occurrence of most large-scale regional PM2.5 (70.4 %) and PM10 (78.3 %) pollution episodes. High wind speed and clean marine air masses may also play important roles in the mitigation of pollution in the YRD. Especially when the clean marine air masses account for a large proportion of all trajectories (i.e., when the YRD is affected by the cyclonic system or oceanic circulation), the air in the YRD has a lesser chance of being polluted. The observed correlation between weather patterns and particle pollution can provide valuable insight into making decisions about pollution control and mitigation strategies.

Synoptic and Mesoscale Climatologies of Severe Local Storms for the American Midwest.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, David Leslie

This study investigates the synoptic and mesoscale environments associated with severe local storms (SELS) in the heart of the American Midwest. This region includes west-central Illinois, most of Indiana, the extreme western counties of Ohio, and a small part of northeastern Kentucky. The primary objectives of this study are to determine the surface and middle-tropospheric synoptic circulation patterns and thermodynamic and kinematic environments associated with SELS event types (tornadoes, hail, severe straight -line winds), and to assess the degree to which the synoptic circulation patterns and meso-beta scale kinematic and thermodynamic climatology of the Midwest differ from that of the Great Plains. A secondary objective is to investigate the possible role that land-surface atmosphere interactions play in the spatial distribution of SELS. A new subjective synoptic typing scheme is developed and applied to determine the synoptic-scale circulation patterns associated with the occurrence of SELS event types. This scheme is based on a combination of surface and middle -tropospheric patterns. Thermodynamic and kinematic parameters are analyzed to determine meso-scale environments favorable for the development of SELS. Results indicate that key synoptic-scale circulation patterns, and specific ranges of thermodynamic and kinematic parameters are related to specific SELS event types. These circulation types and ranges of thermodynamic and kinematic parameters may be used to help improve the medium-range forecasting of severe local storms. Results of the secondary objective reveal that the spatial distribution of SELS events is clustered within the study region, and most occur under a negative climate division-level soil moisture gradient; that is, a drier upwind division than the division in which the event occurs. Moreover, the spatial distribution of SELS events is compared against a map of soil types and vegetation. The resulting distribution depicts a visual correlation between the primary soil and vegetative boundaries and clusters of SELS. This supports the likely role of meso-scale land-surface-atmosphere interactions in severe weather development for humid lowlands of the Midwest United States.

Synoptic meteorological modes of variability for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality in major metropolitan regions of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, Danny M.; Tai, Amos P. K.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Moch, Jonathan M.; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Shen, Lu; Martin, Randall V.

2018-05-01

In his study, we use a combination of multivariate statistical methods to understand the relationships of PM2.5 with local meteorology and synoptic weather patterns in different regions of China across various timescales. Using June 2014 to May 2017 daily total PM2.5 observations from ˜ 1500 monitors, all deseasonalized and detrended to focus on synoptic-scale variations, we find strong correlations of daily PM2.5 with all selected meteorological variables (e.g., positive correlation with temperature but negative correlation with sea-level pressure throughout China; positive and negative correlation with relative humidity in northern and southern China, respectively). The spatial patterns suggest that the apparent correlations with individual meteorological variables may arise from common association with synoptic systems. Based on a principal component analysis of 1998-2017 meteorological data to diagnose distinct meteorological modes that dominate synoptic weather in four major regions of China, we find strong correlations of PM2.5 with several synoptic modes that explain 10 to 40 % of daily PM2.5 variability. These modes include monsoonal flows and cold frontal passages in northern and central China associated with the Siberian High, onshore flows in eastern China, and frontal rainstorms in southern China. Using the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region as a case study, we further find strong interannual correlations of regionally averaged satellite-derived annual mean PM2.5 with annual mean relative humidity (RH; positive) and springtime fluctuation frequency of the Siberian High (negative). We apply the resulting PM2.5-to-climate sensitivities to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate projections to predict future PM2.5 by the 2050s due to climate change, and find a modest decrease of ˜ 0.5 µg m-3 in annual mean PM2.5 in the BTH region due to more frequent cold frontal ventilation under the RCP8.5 future, representing a small climate benefit, but the RH-induced PM2.5 change is inconclusive due to the large inter-model differences in RH projections.

The synoptic- and planetary-scale environments associated with significant 1000-hPa geostrophic wind events along the Beaufort Sea coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooke, Melanie

The substantial interannual variability and the observed warming trend of the Beaufort Sea region are important motivators for the study of regional climate and weather there. In an attempt to further our understanding of strong wind events, which can drive sea ice dynamics and storm surges, their characteristic environments at the synoptic and planetary scales are defined and analysed using global reanalysis data. A dependency on an enhanced or suppressed Aleutian low is found. This produces either a strong southeasterly or north-westerly 1000-hPa geostrophic wind event. The characteristic mid-tropospheric patterns for these two distinct event types show similarities to the positive and negative Pacific/North American teleconnection patterns, but their correlations have yet to be assessed.

Effects of synoptic weather on ground-level PM2.5 concentrations in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ying; Zhao, Naizhuo; Vanos, Jennifer K.; Cao, Guofeng

2017-01-01

It is known that individual meteorological factors affect the concentrations of fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5), yet the specific meteorological effects found in previous studies are largely inconsistent and even conflicting. This study investigates influences of daily and short term changes in synoptic weather on ground-level PM2.5 concentrations in a large geographical area (75 cities across the contiguous United States (U.S.)) by using ten-year (2001-2010) spatial synoptic classification (SSC) data. We find that in the spring, summer, and fall the presence of the tropical weather types (i.e., dry-tropical (DT) and moist-tropical (MT)) is likely to associate with significantly higher levels of PM2.5 as compared to an all-weather-type-day average, and the presence of the polar weather types (i.e., dry-polar (DP) and moist-polar (MP)) is associated with significantly lower PM2.5 concentrations. The short-term (day to day) changes in synoptic weather types in a region are also likely to lead to significant variance in PM2.5 concentrations. For example, the largest increase in PM2.5 concentration occurs with the synoptic weather type changing from DP-to-MT. Conversely, a MT-to-DP weather type change results in the largest decrease in PM2.5 concentrations. Compared to air temperature, the effects of atmospheric moisture on PM2.5 concentration tend to be subtle, demonstrating that in conjunction with moderate temperature, neither the dry nor the moist air (except moist-moderate (MM) in summer) are associated with significantly high or low PM2.5 concentrations. Finally, we find that the effects of the synoptic weather type on PM2.5 concentrations may vary for different seasons and geographical areas. These findings suggest that interactions between atmospheric factors and seasonal and/or geographical factors have considerable impacts on the PM2.5 concentrations, and therefore should be considered in addition to the SSC when conducting environment health assessments.

Atmospheric circulation classification comparison based on wildfires in Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira, M. G.; Trigo, R. M.

2009-04-01

Atmospheric circulation classifications are not a simple description of atmospheric states but a tool to understand and interpret the atmospheric processes and to model the relation between atmospheric circulation and surface climate and other related variables (Radan Huth et al., 2008). Classifications were initially developed with weather forecasting purposes, however with the progress in computer processing capability, new and more robust objective methods were developed and applied to large datasets prompting atmospheric circulation classification methods to one of the most important fields in synoptic and statistical climatology. Classification studies have been extensively used in climate change studies (e.g. reconstructed past climates, recent observed changes and future climates), in bioclimatological research (e.g. relating human mortality to climatic factors) and in a wide variety of synoptic climatological applications (e.g. comparison between datasets, air pollution, snow avalanches, wine quality, fish captures and forest fires). Likewise, atmospheric circulation classifications are important for the study of the role of weather in wildfire occurrence in Portugal because the daily synoptic variability is the most important driver of local weather conditions (Pereira et al., 2005). In particular, the objective classification scheme developed by Trigo and DaCamara (2000) to classify the atmospheric circulation affecting Portugal have proved to be quite useful in discriminating the occurrence and development of wildfires as well as the distribution over Portugal of surface climatic variables with impact in wildfire activity such as maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation. This work aims to present: (i) an overview the existing circulation classification for the Iberian Peninsula, and (ii) the results of a comparison study between these atmospheric circulation classifications based on its relation with wildfires and relevant meteorological variables. To achieve these objectives we consider the main classifications for Iberia developed within the framework of COST action 733 (Radan Huth et al., 2008). This European project aims to provide a wide range of atmospheric circulation classifications for Europe and sub-regions (http://www.cost733.org/) with an ambitious objective of assessing, comparing and classifying all relevant weather situations in Europe. Pereira et al. (2005) "Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal". Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,129, 11-25. Radan Huth et al. (2008) "Classifications of Atmospheric circulation patterns. Recent advances and applications". Trends and Directions in Climate Research: Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 1146: 105-152. doi: 10.1196/annals.1446.019. Trigo R.M., DaCamara C. (2000) "Circulation Weather Types and their impact on the precipitation regime in Portugal". Int J of Climatology, 20, 1559-1581.

Impact of synoptic weather patterns on 24 h-average PM2.5 concentrations in the North China Plain during 2013-2017.

PubMed

Zhang, Hao; Yuan, Haiou; Liu, Xiaohui; Yu, Junyi; Jiao, Yongli

2018-06-15

North China Plain area (NCP) is one of the most densely populated and heavily polluted regions in the world. In the last five years, frequently happened fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) serious pollution events were one of the top environmental concerns in China. As PM 2.5 concentrations are highly influenced by synoptic flow patterns and local meteorological conditions, a two-stage hierarchical clustering method based on dynamic principal component analysis (DPCA) and standard k-means clustering algorithm was employed to classify synoptic wind fields into 6 patterns over the NCP area using the data of 5 PM 2.5 seasons (Sept. 15th-Apr. 15th) from 2013 to 2017. Among the six identified synoptic patterns, pattern of uniform pressure field (U) and that of zonal high pressure (Z H ) accounted for 78.21%, 65.55%, 63.56%, 57.11%, 59.13% and 58.27% studied heavy smog pollution events in Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, Baoding, Shijiazhuang and Xingtai city. The two particular patterns were associated with uniform pressure field and sparsely latitudinal isobar in 850 hPa level, respectively. They were also characterized by high relative humidity, low temperature, low-speed northerly wind in Tianjin and Tangshan, and southerly wind in the other cities. Under the continuous control of pattern Z H , the values of 24 h-average PM 2.5 were found to increase at a rate of 31.78 μg/m 3 per day. To evaluate the contribution of meteorological factors and precursors to PM 2.5 levels, linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) were applied to establish relations among 24 h-average PM 2.5 concentrations, concentrations of main precursors, local meteorological factors and synoptic patterns. Results show that the variations of precursors, local meteorological factors and synoptic flow patterns can explain 51.67%, 19.15% and 14.01% changes of the 24 h-average PM 2.5 concentrations, respectively. This study illustrates that dense precursor emissions are still the main cause for heavy haze pollution events, although meteorological conditions play almost equal roles sometimes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality due to air pollution and synoptic meteorology in 10 Canadian cities.

PubMed

Vanos, Jennifer K; Hebbern, Christopher; Cakmak, Sabit

2014-02-01

Synoptic weather and ambient air quality synergistically influence human health. We report the relative risk of mortality from all non-accidental, respiratory-, and cardiovascular-related causes, associated with exposure to four air pollutants, by weather type and season, in 10 major Canadian cities for 1981 through 1999. We conducted this multi-city time-series study using Poisson generalized linear models stratified by season and each of six distinctive synoptic weather types. Statistically significant relationships of mortality due to short-term exposure to carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, and ozone were found, with significant modifications of risk by weather type, season, and mortality cause. In total, 61% of the respiratory-related mortality relative risk estimates were significantly higher than for cardiovascular-related mortality. The combined effect of weather and air pollution is greatest when tropical-type weather is present in the spring or summer. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CENTER FOR CLIMATIC RESEARCH, UNIVERSITY OF DELAWARE

EPA Science Inventory

The synoptic climatology group performs research into a variety of applied climatological issues that affect humans and other organisms around the world. Synoptic climatology is essentially an holistic approach to weather and climate. Synoptic climatologists attempt to characteri...

A preliminary look at AVE-SESAME 5 conducted on 20-21 May 1979

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

July, M.; Turner, R. E.

1981-01-01

Information on data collected, synoptic conditions, and severe and unusual weather reported during the period are presented. Records of the synoptic conditions include synoptic charts, radar charts, satellite photographs, and rainfall observations.

Future projections of synoptic weather types over the Arabian Peninsula during the twenty-first century using an ensemble of CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; McCabe, Matthew F.

2017-10-01

An assessment of future change in synoptic conditions over the Arabian Peninsula throughout the twenty-first century was performed using 20 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. We employed the mean sea level pressure (SLP) data from model output together with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and compared the relevant circulation types produced by the Lamb classification scheme for the base period 1975-2000. Overall, model results illustrated good agreement with the reanalysis, albeit with a tendency to underestimate cyclonic (C) and southeasterly (SE) patterns and to overestimate anticyclones and directional flows. We also investigated future projections for each circulation-type during the rainy season (December-May) using three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), comprising RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Overall, two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5) revealed a statistically significant increase in weather types favoring above normal rainfall in the region (e.g., C and E-types). In contrast, weather types associated with lower amounts of rainfall (e.g., anticyclones) are projected to decrease in winter but increase in spring. For all scenarios, there was consistent agreement on the sign of change (i.e., positive/negative) for the most frequent patterns (e.g., C, SE, E and A-types), whereas the sign was uncertain for less recurrent types (e.g., N, NW, SE, and W). The projected changes in weather type frequencies in the region can be viewed not only as indicators of change in rainfall response but may also be used to inform impact studies pertinent to water resource planning and management, extreme weather analysis, and agricultural production.

Combining dispersion modelling with synoptic patterns to understand the wind-borne transport into the UK of the bluetongue disease vector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burgin, Laura; Ekström, Marie; Dessai, Suraje

2017-07-01

Bluetongue, an economically important animal disease, can be spread over long distances by carriage of insect vectors ( Culicoides biting midges) on the wind. The weather conditions which influence the midge's flight are controlled by synoptic scale atmospheric circulations. A method is proposed that links wind-borne dispersion of the insects to synoptic circulation through the use of a dispersion model in combination with principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis. We illustrate how to identify the main synoptic situations present during times of midge incursions into the UK from the European continent. A PCA was conducted on high-pass-filtered mean sea-level pressure data for a domain centred over north-west Europe from 2005 to 2007. A clustering algorithm applied to the PCA scores indicated the data should be divided into five classes for which averages were calculated, providing a classification of the main synoptic types present. Midge incursion events were found to mainly occur in two synoptic categories; 64.8% were associated with a pattern displaying a pressure gradient over the North Atlantic leading to moderate south-westerly flow over the UK and 17.9% of the events occurred when high pressure dominated the region leading to south-easterly or easterly winds. The winds indicated by the pressure maps generally compared well against observations from a surface station and analysis charts. This technique could be used to assess frequency and timings of incursions of virus into new areas on seasonal and decadal timescales, currently not possible with other dispersion or biological modelling methods.

Optimum employment of satellite indirect soundings as numerical model input

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horn, L. H.; Derber, J. C.; Koehler, T. L.; Schmidt, B. D.

1981-01-01

The characteristics of satellite-derived temperature soundings that would significantly affect their use as input for numerical weather prediction models were examined. Independent evaluations of satellite soundings were emphasized to better define error characteristics. Results of a Nimbus-6 sounding study reveal an underestimation of the strength of synoptic scale troughs and ridges, and associated gradients in isobaric height and temperature fields. The most significant errors occurred near the Earth's surface and the tropopause. Soundings from the TIROS-N and NOAA-6 satellites were also evaluated. Results again showed an underestimation of upper level trough amplitudes leading to weaker thermal gradient depictions in satellite-only fields. These errors show a definite correlation to the synoptic flow patterns. In a satellite-only analysis used to initialize a numerical model forecast, it was found that these synoptically correlated errors were retained in the forecast sequence.

Waterspout Forecasting Method Over the Eastern Adriatic Using a High-Resolution Numerical Weather Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renko, Tanja; Ivušić, Sarah; Telišman Prtenjak, Maja; Šoljan, Vinko; Horvat, Igor

2018-03-01

In this study, a synoptic and mesoscale analysis was performed and Szilagyi's waterspout forecasting method was tested on ten waterspout events in the period of 2013-2016. Data regarding waterspout occurrences were collected from weather stations, an online survey at the official website of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia and eyewitness reports from newspapers and the internet. Synoptic weather conditions were analyzed using surface pressure fields, 500 hPa level synoptic charts, SYNOP reports and atmospheric soundings. For all observed waterspout events, a synoptic type was determined using the 500 hPa geopotential height chart. The occurrence of lightning activity was determined from the LINET lightning database, and waterspouts were divided into thunderstorm-related and "fair weather" ones. Mesoscale characteristics (with a focus on thermodynamic instability indices) were determined using the high-resolution (500 m grid length) mesoscale numerical weather model and model results were compared with the available observations. Because thermodynamic instability indices are usually insufficient for forecasting waterspout activity, the performance of the Szilagyi Waterspout Index (SWI) was tested using vertical atmospheric profiles provided by the mesoscale numerical model. The SWI successfully forecasted all waterspout events, even the winter events. This indicates that the Szilagyi's waterspout prognostic method could be used as a valid prognostic tool for the eastern Adriatic.

Contribution of large-scale midlatitude disturbances to hourly precipitation extremes in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbero, Renaud; Abatzoglou, John T.; Fowler, Hayley J.

2018-02-01

Midlatitude synoptic weather regimes account for a substantial portion of annual precipitation accumulation as well as multi-day precipitation extremes across parts of the United States (US). However, little attention has been devoted to understanding how synoptic-scale patterns contribute to hourly precipitation extremes. A majority of 1-h annual maximum precipitation (AMP) across the western US were found to be linked to two coherent midlatitude synoptic patterns: disturbances propagating along the jet stream, and cutoff upper-level lows. The influence of these two patterns on 1-h AMP varies geographically. Over 95% of 1-h AMP along the western coastal US were coincident with progressive midlatitude waves embedded within the jet stream, while over 30% of 1-h AMP across the interior western US were coincident with cutoff lows. Between 30-60% of 1-h AMP were coincident with the jet stream across the Ohio River Valley and southeastern US, whereas a a majority of 1-h AMP over the rest of central and eastern US were not found to be associated with either midlatitude synoptic features. Composite analyses for 1-h AMP days coincident to cutoff lows and jet stream show that an anomalous moisture flux and upper-level dynamics are responsible for initiating instability and setting up an environment conducive to 1-h AMP events. While hourly precipitation extremes are generally thought to be purely convective in nature, this study shows that large-scale dynamics and baroclinic disturbances may also contribute to precipitation extremes on sub-daily timescales.

Using synoptic weather types to predict visitor attendance at Atlanta and Indianapolis zoological parks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perkins, David R.

2018-01-01

Defining an ideal "tourism climate" has been an often-visited research topic where explanations have evolved from global- to location-specific indices tailored to tourists' recreational behavior. Unfortunately, as indices become increasingly specific, they are less translatable across geographies because they may only apply to specific activities, locales, climates, or populations. A key need in the future development of weather and climate indices for tourism has been a translatable, meteorologically based index capturing the generalized ambient atmospheric conditions yet considering local climatology. To address this need, this paper tests the applicability of the spatial synoptic classification (SSC) as a tool to predict visitor attendance response in the tourism, recreation, and leisure (TRL) sector across different climate regimes. Daily attendance data is paired with the prevailing synoptic weather condition at Atlanta and Indianapolis zoological parks from September 2001 to June 2011, to review potential impacts ambient atmospheric conditions may have on visitor attendances. Results indicate that "dry moderate" conditions are most associated with high levels of attendance and "moist polar" synoptic conditions are most associated with low levels of attendance at both zoological parks. Comparing visitor response at these zoo locations, visitors in Indianapolis showed lower levels of tolerance to synoptic conditions which were not "ideal." Visitors in Indianapolis also displayed more aversion to "polar" synoptic regimes while visitors in Atlanta displayed more tolerance to "moist tropical" synoptic regimes. Using a comprehensive atmospheric measure such as the SSC may be a key to broadening application when assessing tourism climates across diverse geographies.

Using synoptic weather types to predict visitor attendance at Atlanta and Indianapolis zoological parks.

PubMed

Perkins, David R

2018-01-01

Defining an ideal "tourism climate" has been an often-visited research topic where explanations have evolved from global- to location-specific indices tailored to tourists' recreational behavior. Unfortunately, as indices become increasingly specific, they are less translatable across geographies because they may only apply to specific activities, locales, climates, or populations. A key need in the future development of weather and climate indices for tourism has been a translatable, meteorologically based index capturing the generalized ambient atmospheric conditions yet considering local climatology. To address this need, this paper tests the applicability of the spatial synoptic classification (SSC) as a tool to predict visitor attendance response in the tourism, recreation, and leisure (TRL) sector across different climate regimes. Daily attendance data is paired with the prevailing synoptic weather condition at Atlanta and Indianapolis zoological parks from September 2001 to June 2011, to review potential impacts ambient atmospheric conditions may have on visitor attendances. Results indicate that "dry moderate" conditions are most associated with high levels of attendance and "moist polar" synoptic conditions are most associated with low levels of attendance at both zoological parks. Comparing visitor response at these zoo locations, visitors in Indianapolis showed lower levels of tolerance to synoptic conditions which were not "ideal." Visitors in Indianapolis also displayed more aversion to "polar" synoptic regimes while visitors in Atlanta displayed more tolerance to "moist tropical" synoptic regimes. Using a comprehensive atmospheric measure such as the SSC may be a key to broadening application when assessing tourism climates across diverse geographies.

On the linkage between Arctic sea ice and Mid-latitude weather pattern: the situation in East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, S.; Zhang, Y.; Wu, Q.

2017-12-01

The influence of Arctic changes on the weather patterns in the highly populated mid-latitude is a complex and controversial topic with considerable uncertainties such as the low signal-to-noise, ill-suited metrics of circulation changes and the missing of dynamical understanding. In this study, the possible linkage between the Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) and the wintertime weather patterns in East Asia is investigated by comparing groups of statistical and diagnostic analyses. Our study shows a robust relationship between the early autumn SIC in Barents, Kara, Laptev and East Siberia Sea and the energies of wintertime transient activities corresponding to the weather patterns over East Asia on inter-annual time scales. With the reduction of SIC in autumn, the wintertime synoptic (2-10 day) kinetic energy in the north of Eurasia decreases while the low-frequency (10-30 days) kinetic energy, which corresponds to persistent weather patterns, exhibits an evident and dominant increase over the north of Caspian Sea, Lake Baikal and the Ural Mountain. With the reduction of SIC, the intra-seasonal temperature fluctuations present coherent changes over a broader region as well, with significant increase of the low-frequency variability in the vast north of Tibet Plateau and East Asia. The changes of the low-frequency transient activities may be attributed to the slowly southward propagating wave energies from polar regions. However, no consistent stratosphere signals are found associated with such linkage on inter-annual time scales.

Synoptic analysis of heat-related mortality in Sydney, Australia, 1993-2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaneckova, Pavla; Hart, Melissa A.; Beggs, Paul J.; de Dear, Richard J.

2008-07-01

Exposure to extremely hot weather has been associated with increased mortality. Temporal Synoptic Index is an effective method used to analyze the relationship between mortality and combined weather factors. The aim of this study is to examine the short-term effect of ambient heat on mortality in Sydney during the warmest 6-month period (October-March) for the years 1993-2001. Eleven synoptic categories were related to daily mortality rates in Sydney. Two distinctive warm categories were associated with significantly higher mortality rates. Hot, dry and relatively rare Synoptic Category 7 (SC7) days showed the highest daily mortality rates, followed by warm and humid SC3 days, which occurred more frequently. Increased mortality was more pronounced among the elderly population, and gender-stratified analysis showed women to be more vulnerable. Mortality on the day of the weather event was higher than 1 or 2 days after the adverse synoptic situation. Ozone and particulate matter smaller than 10 µm were found at high concentrations in SC3 and SC7, respectively, but their impact on mortality was not clear. The population of Sydney was found to be vulnerable to high temperatures, with a lower susceptibility than those of some cities in the USA and Europe.

Tropical Pacific moisture variability: Its detection, synoptic structure and consequences in the general circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcguirk, James P.

1990-01-01

Satellite data analysis tools are developed and implemented for the diagnosis of atmospheric circulation systems over the tropical Pacific Ocean. The tools include statistical multi-variate procedures, a multi-spectral radiative transfer model, and the global spectral forecast model at NMC. Data include in-situ observations; satellite observations from VAS (moisture, infrared and visible) NOAA polar orbiters (including Tiros Operational Satellite System (TOVS) multi-channel sounding data and OLR grids) and scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR); and European Centre for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECHMWF) analyses. A primary goal is a better understanding of the relation between synoptic structures of the area, particularly tropical plumes, and the general circulation, especially the Hadley circulation. A second goal is the definition of the quantitative structure and behavior of all Pacific tropical synoptic systems. Finally, strategies are examined for extracting new and additional information from existing satellite observations. Although moisture structure is emphasized, thermal patterns are also analyzed. Both horizontal and vertical structures are studied and objective quantitative results are emphasized.

A Synoptic Weather Typing Approach and Its application to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Weather Events at Local Scale in South-Central Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shouquan Cheng, Chad; Li, Qian; Li, Guilong

2010-05-01

The synoptic weather typing approach has become popular in evaluating the impacts of climate change on a variety of environmental problems. One of the reasons is its ability to categorize a complex set of meteorological variables as a coherent index, which can facilitate analyses of local climate change impacts. The weather typing method has been successfully applied in Environment Canada for several research projects to analyze climatic change impacts on a number of extreme weather events, such as freezing rain, heavy rainfall, high-/low-flow events, air pollution, and human health. These studies comprise of three major parts: (1) historical simulation modeling to verify the extreme weather events, (2) statistical downscaling to provide station-scale future hourly/daily climate data, and (3) projections of changes in frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events in this century. To achieve these goals, in addition to synoptic weather typing, the modeling conceptualizations in meteorology and hydrology and a number of linear/nonlinear regression techniques were applied. Furthermore, a formal model result verification process has been built into each of the three parts of the projects. The results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables predicted by the models, showed very good agreement. The modeled results from these projects found that the frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events are projected to significantly increase under a changing climate in this century. This talk will introduce these research projects and outline the modeling exercise and result verification process. The major findings on future projections from the studies will be summarized in the presentation as well. One of the major conclusions from the studies is that the procedures (including synoptic weather typing) used in the studies are useful for climate change impact analysis on future extreme weather events. The implication of the significant increases in frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events would be useful to be considered when revising engineering infrastructure design standards and developing adaptation strategies and policies.

Using Conditional Analysis to Investigate Spatial and Temporal patterns in Upland Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakamoto Ferranti, Emma Jayne; Whyatt, James Duncan; Timmis, Roger James

2010-05-01

The seasonality and characteristics of rainfall in the UK are altering under a changing climate. Summer rainfall is generally decreasing whereas winter rainfall is increasing, particularly in northern and western areas (Maraun et al., 2008) and recent research suggests these rainfall increases are amplified in upland areas (Burt and Ferranti, 2010). Conditional analysis has been used to investigate these rainfall patterns in Cumbria, an upland area in northwest England. Cumbria was selected as an example of a topographically diverse mid-latitude region that has a predominately maritime and westerly-defined climate. Moreover it has a dense network of more than 400 rain gauges that have operated for periods between 1900 and present day. Cumbria has experienced unprecedented flooding in the past decade and understanding the spatial and temporal changes in this and other upland regions is important for water resource and ecosystem management. The conditional analysis method examines the spatial and temporal variations in rainfall under different synoptic conditions and in different geographic sub-regions (Ferranti et al., 2009). A daily synoptic typing scheme, the Lamb Weather Catalogue, was applied to classify rainfall into different weather types, for example: south-westerly, westerly, easterly or cyclonic. Topographic descriptors developed using GIS were used to classify rain gauges into 6 directionally-dependant geographic sub-regions: coastal, windward-lowland, windward-upland, leeward-upland, leeward-lowland, secondary upland. Combining these classification methods enabled seasonal rainfall climatologies to be produced for specific weather types and sub-regions. Winter rainfall climatologies were constructed for all 6 sub-regions for 3 weather types - south-westerly (SW), westerly (W), and cyclonic (C); these weather types contribute more than 50% of total winter rainfall. The frequency of wet-days (>0.3mm), the total winter rainfall and the average wet day rainfall amount were analysed for each rainfall sub-region and weather type from 1961-2007 (Ferranti et al., 2010). The conditional analysis showed total rainfall under SW and W weather types to be increasing, with the greatest increases observed in the upland sub-regions. The increase in total SW rainfall is driven by a greater occurrence of SW rain days, and there has been little change to the average wet-day rainfall amount. The increase in total W rainfall is driven in part by an increase in the frequency of wet-days, but more significantly by an increase in the average wet-day rainfall amount. In contrast, total rainfall under C weather types has decreased. Further analysis will investigate how spring, summer and autumn rainfall climatologies have changed for the different weather types and sub-regions. Conditional analysis that combines GIS and synoptic climatology provides greater insights into the processes underlying readily available meteorological data. Dissecting Cumbrian rainfall data under different synoptic and geographic conditions showed the observed changes in winter rainfall are not uniform for the different weather types, nor for the different geographic sub-regions. These intricate details are often lost during coarser resolution analysis, and conditional analysis will provide a detailed synopsis of Cumbrian rainfall processes against which Regional Climate Model (RCM) performance can be tested. Conventionally RCMs try to simulate composite rainfall over many different weather types and sub-regions and by undertaking conditional validation the model performance for individual processes can be tested. This will help to target improvements in model performance, and ultimately lead to better simulation of rainfall in areas of complex topography. BURT, T. P. & FERRANTI, E. J. S. (2010) Changing patterns of heavy rainfall in upland areas: a case study from northern England. Atmospheric Environment, [in review]. FERRANTI, E. J. S., WHYATT, J. D. & TIMMIS, R. J. (2009) Development and application of topographic descriptors for conditional analysis of rainfall. Atmospheric Science Letters, 10, 177-184. FERRANTI, E. J. S., WHYATT, J. D., TIMMIS, R. J. & DAVIES, G. (2010) Using GIS to investigate spatial and temporal variations in upland rainfall. Transactions in GIS, [in press]. MARAUN, D., OSBORN, T. J. & GILLETT, N. P. (2008) United Kingdom daily precipitation intensity: improved early data, error estimates and an update from 2000 to 2006. International Journal of Climatology, 28, 833-842.

Spatio-temporal dynamics and synoptic characteristics of wet and drought extremes in Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utkuzova, Dilyara; Khan, Valentina

2015-04-01

Synoptical-statistical analysis has been conducted using SPI index calculated for 478 stations with records from 1966 through 2013. Different parameters of SPI frequency distribution and long-term tendencies were calculated as well as spatial characteristics indicating drought and wetness propagation. Results of analysis demonstrate that during last years there is a tendency of increasing of the intensity of draught and wetness extremes over Russia. There are fewer droughts in the northern regions. The drought propagation for the European territory of Russia is decreasing in June and August, and increasing in July. The situation is opposite for the wetness tendencies. For the Asian territory of Russia, the drought propagation is significantly increasing in July along with decreasing wetness trend. Synoptic conditions favorable for the formation of wet and drought extremes were identified by comparing synoptic charts with the spatial patterns of SPI. For synoptic analysis, episodes of extremely wet (6 episodes for the APR and 7 episodes for the EPR) and drought (6 episodes for the APR and 6 for the EPR) events were classified using A. Katz' typology of weather regimes. For European part of Russia, extreme DROUGHT events are linked to the weather type named "MIXED", for Asian part of Russia - the type "CENTRAL". For European part of Russia, extreme WET events associated with "CENTRAL" type. There is a displacement of the planetary frontal zone into southward direction approximately for 5-25 degrees relatively to normal climatological position during WET extreme events linked to «EASTERN» classification type. Intercomparison of SPI calculated on the base of NOAA NCEP CPC CAMS for the same period and with the resolution 0,5 degree, month precipitation data, Era-Interim Daily fields archive for the period 1979-2014 with the resolution 0,5 degree reanalysis and observational precipitation data was done. The results of comparative analysis has been discussed.

The use of normalized climatological anomalies to rank synoptic-scale events and their relation to Weather Types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, A. M.; Lorenzo, M. N.; Gimeno, L.; Nieto, R.; Añel, J. A.

2009-09-01

Several methods have been developed to rank meteorological events in terms of severity, social impact or economic impacts. These classifications are not always objective since they depend of several factors, for instance, the observation network is biased towards the densely populated urban areas against rural or oceanic areas. It is also very important to note that not all rare synoptic-scale meteorological events attract significant media attention. In this work we use a comprehensive method of classifying synoptic-scale events adapted from Hart and Grumm, 2001, to the European region (30N-60N, 30W-15E). The main motivation behind this method is that the more unusual the event (a cold outbreak, a heat wave, or a flood), for a given region, the higher ranked it must be. To do so, we use four basic meteorological variables (Height, Temperature, Wind and Specific Humidity) from NCEP reanalysis dataset over the range of 1000hPa to 200hPa at a daily basis from 1948 to 2004. The climatology used embraces the 1961-1990 period. For each variable, the analysis of raking climatological anomalies was computed taking into account the daily normalized departure from climatology at different levels. For each day (from 1948 to 2004) we have four anomaly measures, one for each variable, and another, a combined where the anomaly (total anomaly) is the average of the anomaly of the four variables. Results will be analyzed on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis. Seasonal trends and variability will also be shown. In addition, and given the extent of the database, the expected return periods associated with the anomalies are revealed. Moreover, we also use an automated version of the Lamb weather type (WT) classification scheme (Jones et al, 1993) adapted for the Galicia area (Northwestern corner of the Iberian Peninsula) by Lorenzo et al (2008) in order to compute the daily local circulation regimes in this area. By combining the corresponding daily WT with the five anomaly measures we can evaluate if there is any preferable WT responsible for high or low values of anomalies. Hart, R.E and R.H. Grumm (2001) Using normalized climatological anomalies to rank synoptic-scale events objectivily. Monthly Weather Review, 129, 2426-2442. Jones, P. D., M. Hulme, K. R. Briffa (1993) A comparison of Lamb circulation types with anobjective classification scheme. International Journal of Climatology, 13: 655- 663. Lorenzo M.N., J.J. Taboada and L.Gimeno (2008). Links between circulation weather types and teleconnection patterns and their influence on precipitation patterns in Galicia (NW Spain). International Journal of Climatology 28(11): 1493:1505 DOI: 10.1002/joc.1646.

What are the most fire-dangerous atmospheric circulations in the Eastern-Mediterranean? Analysis of the synoptic wildfire climatology.

PubMed

Paschalidou, A K; Kassomenos, P A

2016-01-01

Wildfire management is closely linked to robust forecasts of changes in wildfire risk related to meteorological conditions. This link can be bridged either through fire weather indices or through statistical techniques that directly relate atmospheric patterns to wildfire activity. In the present work the COST-733 classification schemes are applied in order to link wildfires in Greece with synoptic circulation patterns. The analysis reveals that the majority of wildfire events can be explained by a small number of specific synoptic circulations, hence reflecting the synoptic climatology of wildfires. All 8 classification schemes used, prove that the most fire-dangerous conditions in Greece are characterized by a combination of high atmospheric pressure systems located N to NW of Greece, coupled with lower pressures located over the very Eastern part of the Mediterranean, an atmospheric pressure pattern closely linked to the local Etesian winds over the Aegean Sea. During these events, the atmospheric pressure has been reported to be anomalously high, while anomalously low 500hPa geopotential heights and negative total water column anomalies were also observed. Among the various classification schemes used, the 2 Principal Component Analysis-based classifications, namely the PCT and the PXE, as well as the Leader Algorithm classification LND proved to be the best options, in terms of being capable to isolate the vast amount of fire events in a small number of classes with increased frequency of occurrence. It is estimated that these 3 schemes, in combination with medium-range to seasonal climate forecasts, could be used by wildfire risk managers to provide increased wildfire prediction accuracy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The impact of synoptic weather on UK surface ozone and implications for premature mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, R. J.; Butt, E. W.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Doherty, R. M.; Fenech, S.; Schmidt, A.; Arnold, S. R.; Savage, N. H.

2016-12-01

Air pollutants, such as ozone, have adverse impacts on human health and cause, for example, respiratory and cardiovascular problems. In the United Kingdom (UK), peak surface ozone concentrations typically occur in the spring and summer and are controlled by emission of precursor gases, tropospheric chemistry and local meteorology which can be influenced by large-scale synoptic weather regimes. In this study we composite surface and satellite observations of summer-time (April to September) ozone under different UK atmospheric circulation patterns, as defined by the Lamb weather types. Anticyclonic conditions and easterly flows are shown to significantly enhance ozone concentrations over the UK relative to summer-time average values. Anticyclonic stability and light winds aid the trapping of ozone and its precursor gases near the surface. Easterly flows (NE, E, SE) transport ozone and precursor gases from polluted regions in continental Europe (e.g. the Benelux region) to the UK. Cyclonic conditions and westerly flows, associated with unstable weather, transport ozone from the UK mainland, replacing it with clean maritime (North Atlantic) air masses. Increased cloud cover also likely decrease ozone production rates. We show that the UK Met Office regional air quality model successfully reproduces UK summer-time ozone concentrations and ozone enhancements under anticyclonic and south-easterly conditions for the summer of 2006. By using established ozone exposure-health burden metrics, anticyclonic and easterly condition enhanced surface ozone concentrations pose the greatest public health risk.

Large CO 2 effluxes at night and during synoptic weather events significantly contribute to CO 2 emissions from a reservoir

DOE PAGES

Liu, Heping; Zhang, Qianyu; Katul, Gabriel G.; ...

2016-05-24

CO 2 emissions from inland waters are commonly determined by indirect methods that are based on the product of a gas transfer coefficient and the concentration gradient at the air water interface (e.g., wind-based gas transfer models). The measurements of concentration gradient are typically collected during the day in fair weather throughout the course of a year. Direct measurements of eddy covariance CO 2 fluxes from a large inland water body (Ross Barnett reservoir, Mississippi, USA) show that CO 2 effluxes at night are approximately 70% greater than those during the day. At longer time scales, frequent synoptic weather eventsmore » associated with extratropical cyclones induce CO 2 flux pulses, resulting in further increase in annual CO 2 effluxes by 16%. Therefore, CO 2 emission rates from this reservoir, if these diel and synoptic processes are under-sampled, are likely to be underestimated by approximately 40%. Our results also indicate that the CO 2 emission rates from global inland waters reported in the literature, when based on indirect methods, are likely underestimated. Field samplings and indirect modeling frameworks that estimate CO 2 emissions should account for both daytime-nighttime efflux difference and enhanced emissions during synoptic weather events. Furthermore, the analysis here can guide carbon emission sampling to improve regional carbon estimates.« less

Large CO 2 effluxes at night and during synoptic weather events significantly contribute to CO 2 emissions from a reservoir

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Heping; Zhang, Qianyu; Katul, Gabriel G.

CO 2 emissions from inland waters are commonly determined by indirect methods that are based on the product of a gas transfer coefficient and the concentration gradient at the air water interface (e.g., wind-based gas transfer models). The measurements of concentration gradient are typically collected during the day in fair weather throughout the course of a year. Direct measurements of eddy covariance CO 2 fluxes from a large inland water body (Ross Barnett reservoir, Mississippi, USA) show that CO 2 effluxes at night are approximately 70% greater than those during the day. At longer time scales, frequent synoptic weather eventsmore » associated with extratropical cyclones induce CO 2 flux pulses, resulting in further increase in annual CO 2 effluxes by 16%. Therefore, CO 2 emission rates from this reservoir, if these diel and synoptic processes are under-sampled, are likely to be underestimated by approximately 40%. Our results also indicate that the CO 2 emission rates from global inland waters reported in the literature, when based on indirect methods, are likely underestimated. Field samplings and indirect modeling frameworks that estimate CO 2 emissions should account for both daytime-nighttime efflux difference and enhanced emissions during synoptic weather events. Furthermore, the analysis here can guide carbon emission sampling to improve regional carbon estimates.« less

Synoptic weather typing applied to air pollution mortality among the elderly in 10 Canadian cities.

PubMed

Vanos, Jennifer K; Cakmak, Sabit; Bristow, Corben; Brion, Vladislav; Tremblay, Neil; Martin, Sara L; Sheridan, Scott S

2013-10-01

Synoptic circulation patterns (large-scale weather systems) affect ambient levels of air pollution, as well as the relationship between air pollution and human health. To investigate the air pollution-mortality relationship within weather types and seasons, and to determine which combination of atmospheric conditions may pose increased health threats in the elderly age categories. The relative risk of mortality (RR) due to air pollution was examined using Poisson generalized linear models (GLMs) within specific weather types. Analysis was completed by weather type and age group (all ages, ≤64, 65-74, 75-84, ≥85 years) in ten Canadian cities from 1981 to 1999. There was significant modification of RR by weather type and age. When examining the entire population, weather type was shown to have the greatest modifying effect on the risk of dying due to ozone (O3). This effect was highest on average for the dry tropical (DT) weather type, with the all-age RR of mortality at a population weighted mean (PWM) found to be 1.055 (95% CI 1.026-1.085). All-weather type risk estimates increased with age due to exposure to carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulphur dioxide (SO2). On average, RR increased by 2.6, 3.8 and 1.5% for the respective pollutants between the ≤64 and ≥85 age categories. Conversely, mean ozone estimates remained relatively consistent with age. Elevated levels of air pollution were found to be detrimental to the health of elderly individuals for all weather types. However, the entire population was negatively effected by air pollution on the hot dry (DT) and hot humid (MT) days. We identified a significant modification of RR for mortality due to air pollution by age, which is enhanced under specific weather types. Efforts should be targeted at minimizing pollutant exposure to the elderly and/or all age groups with respect to weather type in question. Crown Copyright © 2013 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Study of the tornado event in Greece on March 25, 2009: Synoptic analysis and numerical modeling using modified topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsangouras, I. T.; Nastos, P. T.; Pytharoulis, I.

2016-03-01

Recent research revealed that western Greece and NW Peloponnese are regions that favor prefrontal tornadic incidence. On March 25, 2009 a tornado developed approximately at 10:30 UTC near Varda village (NW Peloponnese). Tornado intensity was T4-T5 (TORRO scale) and consequently caused an economic impact of 350,000 € over the local society. The goals of this study are: (i) to analyze synoptic and remote sensing features regarding the tornado event over NW Peloponnese and (ii) to investigate the role of topography in tornadogenesis triggered under strong synoptic scale forcing over that area. Synoptic analysis was based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data sets. The analysis of daily anomaly of synoptic conditions with respect to 30 years' climatology (1981-2010), was based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis data sets. In addition, numerous remote sensing data sets were derived by the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS) weather station network in order to better interpret the examined tornado event. Finally, numerical modeling was performed using the non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), initialized by ECMWF gridded analyses, with telescoping nested grids that allow the representation of atmospheric circulations ranging from the synoptic scale down to the meso-scale. The two numerical experiments were performed on the basis of: (a) the presence and (b) the absence of topography (landscape), so as to determine whether the occurrence of a tornado - identified by diagnostic instability indices - could be indicated by modifying topography. The energy helicity index (EHI), the bulk Richardson number (BRN) shear, the storm-relative environmental helicity (SRH), and the maximum convective available potential energy (MCAPE, for parcels with maximum θe) were considered as principal diagnostic instability variables and employed in both numerical experiments. Furthermore, model verification was conducted, accompanied by analysis of the absolute vorticity budget. Synoptic analysis revealed that the synoptic weather conditions on March 25, 2009 are in agreement with the composite synoptic climatology for tornado days over western Greece. In addition, maximum daily anomalies at the barometric levels of 500, 700, 850 and 925 hPa were found, compared to the climatology of composite mean anomalies for tornado days over western Greece. Numerical simulations revealed that the topography of NW Peloponnese did not constitute an important factor during the tornado event on March 25, 2009, based on EHI, SRH, BRN, and MCAPE analyses.

Interannual rainfall variability and SOM-based circulation classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolski, Piotr; Jack, Christopher; Tadross, Mark; van Aardenne, Lisa; Lennard, Christopher

2018-01-01

Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) based classifications of synoptic circulation patterns are increasingly being used to interpret large-scale drivers of local climate variability, and as part of statistical downscaling methodologies. These applications rely on a basic premise of synoptic climatology, i.e. that local weather is conditioned by the large-scale circulation. While it is clear that this relationship holds in principle, the implications of its implementation through SOM-based classification, particularly at interannual and longer time scales, are not well recognized. Here we use a SOM to understand the interannual synoptic drivers of climate variability at two locations in the winter and summer rainfall regimes of South Africa. We quantify the portion of variance in seasonal rainfall totals that is explained by year to year differences in the synoptic circulation, as schematized by a SOM. We furthermore test how different spatial domain sizes and synoptic variables affect the ability of the SOM to capture the dominant synoptic drivers of interannual rainfall variability. Additionally, we identify systematic synoptic forcing that is not captured by the SOM classification. The results indicate that the frequency of synoptic states, as schematized by a relatively disaggregated SOM (7 × 9) of prognostic atmospheric variables, including specific humidity, air temperature and geostrophic winds, captures only 20-45% of interannual local rainfall variability, and that the residual variance contains a strong systematic component. Utilising a multivariate linear regression framework demonstrates that this residual variance can largely be explained using synoptic variables over a particular location; even though they are used in the development of the SOM their influence, however, diminishes with the size of the SOM spatial domain. The influence of the SOM domain size, the choice of SOM atmospheric variables and grid-point explanatory variables on the levels of explained variance, is consistent with the general understanding of the dominant processes and atmospheric variables that affect rainfall variability at a particular location.

A synoptic approach to weather conditions discloses a relationship with ambulatory blood pressure in hypertensives.

PubMed

Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Orlandini, Simone; Maracchi, Giampiero; Gensini, Gian F; Modesti, Pietro A

2008-07-01

Higher blood pressure (BP) values in cold than in hot months has been documented in hypertensives. These changes may potentially contribute to the observed excess winter cardiovascular mortality. However, the association with weather has always been investigated by considering the relationship with a single variable rather than considering the combination of ground weather variables characterizing a specific weather pattern (air mass (AM)). We retrospectively investigate in Florence (Italy) the relationship between BP and specific AMs in hypertensive subjects (n = 540) referred to our Hypertension Unit for 24-h ambulatory BP monitoring during the period of the year characterized by the highest weather variability (winter). Five different winter daily AMs were classified according to the combination of ground weather data (air temperature, cloud cover, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, and direction). Multiple variable analysis selected the AM as a significant predictor of mean 24-h BP (P < 0.01 for diastolic BP (DBP) and P < 0.05 for systolic BP (SBP)), daytime DBP (P < 0.001) and nighttime BP (P < 0.01 for both SBP and DBP), with higher BP values observed in cyclonic (unstable, cloudy, and mild weather) than in anticyclonic (settled, cloudless, and cold weather) days. When the association with 2-day sequences of AMs was considered, an increase in ambulatory BP followed a sudden day-to-day change of weather pattern going from anticyclonic to cyclonic days. The weather considered as a combination of different weather variables may affect BP. The forecast of a sudden change of AM could provide important information helpful for hypertensives during winter.

Physical Patterns Associated with 27 April 2011 Tornado Outbreak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Fernanda; Salem, Thomas

2012-02-01

The National Weather Service office in Memphis, Tennessee has aimed their efforts to improve severe tornado forecasting. Everything is not known about tornadogenesis, but one thing is: tornadoes tend to form within supercell thunderstorms. Hence, 27 April 2011 and 25 May 2011 were days when a Tornado Outbreak was expected to arise. Although 22 tornadoes struck the region on 27 April 2011, only 1 impacted the area on 25 May 2011. In order to understand both events, comparisons of their physical features were made. These parameters were studied using the Weather Event Simulator system and the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction database. This research concentrated on the Surface Frontal Analysis, NAM40 700mb Dew-Points, NAM80 250mb Wind Speed and NAM20 500mb Vorticity images as well as 0-6 km Shear, MUCAPE and VGP mesoscale patterns. As result of this research a Dry-Line ahead of a Cold Front, Dew-points 5C and higher, and high Vorticity values^ were synoptic patterns that influenced to the formation of supercell tornadoes. Finally, MUCAPE and VGP favored the possibility of tornadoes occurrence on 25 May 2011, but shear was the factor that made 27 April 2011 a day for a Tornado Outbreak weather event.

The effects of synoptic weather on influenza infection incidences: a retrospective study utilizing digital disease surveillance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Naizhuo; Cao, Guofeng; Vanos, Jennifer K.; Vecellio, Daniel J.

2018-01-01

The environmental drivers and mechanisms of influenza dynamics remain unclear. The recent development of influenza surveillance-particularly the emergence of digital epidemiology-provides an opportunity to further understand this puzzle as an area within applied human biometeorology. This paper investigates the short-term weather effects on human influenza activity at a synoptic scale during cold seasons. Using 10 years (2005-2014) of municipal level influenza surveillance data (an adjustment of the Google Flu Trends estimation from the Centers for Disease Control's virologic surveillance data) and daily spatial synoptic classification weather types, we explore and compare the effects of weather exposure on the influenza infection incidences in 79 cities across the USA. We find that during the cold seasons the presence of the polar [i.e., dry polar (DP) and moist polar (MP)] weather types is significantly associated with increasing influenza likelihood in 62 and 68% of the studied cities, respectively, while the presence of tropical [i.e., dry tropical (DT) and moist tropical (MT)] weather types is associated with a significantly decreasing occurrence of influenza in 56 and 43% of the cities, respectively. The MP and the DP weather types exhibit similar close positive correlations with influenza infection incidences, indicating that both cold-dry and cold-moist air provide favorable conditions for the occurrence of influenza in the cold seasons. Additionally, when tropical weather types are present, the humid (MT) and the dry (DT) weather types have similar strong impacts to inhibit the occurrence of influenza. These findings suggest that temperature is a more dominating atmospheric factor than moisture that impacts the occurrences of influenza in cold seasons.

ENSO Weather and Coral Bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGowan, Hamish; Theobald, Alison

2017-10-01

The most devastating mass coral bleaching has occurred during El Niño events, with bleaching reported to be a direct result of increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, El Niño itself does not cause SSTs to rise in all regions that experience bleaching. Nor is the upper ocean warming trend of 0.11°C per decade since 1971, attributed to global warming, sufficient alone to exceed the thermal tolerance of corals. Here we show that weather patterns during El Niño that result in reduced cloud cover, higher than average air temperatures and higher than average atmospheric pressures, play a crucial role in determining the extent and location of coral bleaching on the world's largest coral reef system, the World Heritage Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Accordingly, synoptic-scale weather patterns and local atmosphere-ocean feedbacks related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and not large-scale SST warming due to El Niño alone and/or global warming are often the cause of coral bleaching on the GBR.

Airline flight planning - The weather connection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinberg, R.

1981-01-01

The history of airline flight planning is briefly reviewed. Over half a century ago, when scheduled airline services began, weather data were almost nonexistent. By the early 1950's a reliable synoptic network provided upper air reports. The next 15 years saw a rapid growth in commercial aviation, and airlines introduced computer techniques to flight planning. The 1970's saw the development of weather satellites. The current state of flight planning activities is analyzed. It is found that accurate flight planning will require meteorological information on a finer scale than can be provided by a synoptic forecast. Opportunities for a new approach are examined, giving attention to the available options, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model, limited area fine mesh models, man-computer interactive display systems, the use of interactive techniques with the present upper air data base, and the implementation of interactive techniques.

Synoptic Traveling Weather Systems on Mars: Effects of Radiatively-Active Water Ice Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.; Haberle, Robert; Atsuki Urata, Richard

2016-10-01

Atmospheric aerosols on Mars are critical in determining the nature of its thermal structure, its large-scale circulation, and hence the overall climate of the planet. We conduct multi-annual simulations with the latest version of the NASA Ames Mars global climate model (GCM), gcm2.3+, that includes a modernized radiative-transfer package and complex water-ice cloud microphysics package which permit radiative effects and interactions of suspended atmospheric aerosols (e.g., water ice clouds, water vapor, dust, and mutual interactions) to influence the net diabatic heating. Results indicate that radiatively active water ice clouds profoundly affect the seasonal and annual mean climate. The mean thermal structure and balanced circulation patterns are strongly modified near the surface and aloft. Warming of the subtropical atmosphere at altitude and cooling of the high latitude atmosphere at low levels takes place, which increases the mean pole-to-equator temperature contrast (i.e., "baroclinicity"). With radiatively active water ice clouds (RAC) compared to radiatively inert water ice clouds (nonRAC), significant changes in the intensity of the mean state and forced stationary Rossby modes occur, both of which affect the vigor and intensity of traveling, synoptic period weather systems. Such weather systems not only act as key agents in the transport of heat and momentum beyond the extent of the Hadley circulation, but also the transport of trace species such as water vapor, water ice-clouds, dust and others. The northern hemisphere (NH) forced Rossby waves and resultant wave train are augmented in the RAC case: the modes are more intense and the wave train is shifted equatorward. Significant changes also occur within the subtropics and tropics. The Rossby wave train sets up, combined with the traveling synoptic-period weather systems (i.e., cyclones and anticyclones), the geographic extent of storm zones (or storm tracks) within the NH. A variety of circulation features will be presented which indicate contrasts between the RAC and nonRAC cases, and which highlight key effects radiatively-active clouds have on physical and dynamical processes active in the current climate of Mars.

Characterization of freezing precipitation events through other meteorological variables and their recent changes over Northern Extratropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groisman, P. Y.; Yin, X.; Bulygina, O.

2017-12-01

Freezing precipitation events intertwine with agriculture, recreation, energy consumption, and seasonal transportation cycles of human activities. Using supplementary synoptic reports at 1,500 long-term stations of North America and Northern Eurasia, we created climatology of freezing precipitation near the surface and found significant changes (increases) in these occurrences in the past decade at high latitudes/elevations (Groisman et al. 2016; updated). Firstly, we document narrow boundaries of near surface temperature and humidity fields when freezing precipitation events occur; these are necessary but insufficient conditions of their occurrence. Secondly, using the upper air data at the sites collocated with in situ observations of freezing events, we quantify the typical pattern of lower troposphere temperature anomalies during freezing events: At the same locations and Julian days, the presence of freezing event at the surface is associated with significantly warmer temperatures in the lower troposphere; comparison of temperatures at nearest days before and after the freezing events with days during these events also shows statistically significant positive temperature anomalies in the lower troposphere to 500 hPa (on average, +3 to 4 °C) In the days with freezing events, vertical air temperature gradients between surface and 850 hPa become less than usual with frequent inversions, when the tropospheric air is warmer than at the surface. The above features of the lower tropospheric temperature, near-surface temperature and humidity represent a combination of weather conditions conducive for precipitation, if it happens, falling in the freezing rain form. The in situ reports of freezing events at synoptic stations allow us to estimate temporary and spatial distributions of such "special weather conditions". Thus, a posteriori high probability of freezing events under these weather conditions invokes similar probabilities of freezing rain over the ungauged terrain, where we do not have special synoptic reports but can reproduce these "special weather conditions" from less sophisticated observational networks and/or reanalyses. Reference: Groisman et al. 2016: Recent changes in the frequency of freezing precipitation in North America and Northern Eurasia. Environ Res Lett 11 045007.

Synoptic Traveling Weather Systems on Mars: Effects of Radiatively-Active Water Ice Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery; Kahre, Melinda; Haberle, Robert; Urata, Richard

2017-01-01

Atmospheric aerosols on Mars are critical in determining the nature of its thermal structure, its large-scale circulation, and hence the overall climate of the planet. We conduct multi-annual simulations with the latest version of the NASA Ames Mars global climate model (GCM), gcm2.3+, that includes a modernized radiative-transfer package and complex water-ice cloud microphysics package which permit radiative effects and interactions of suspended atmospheric aerosols (e.g., water ice clouds, water vapor, dust, and mutual interactions) to influence the net diabatic heating. Results indicate that radiatively active water ice clouds profoundly affect the seasonal and annual mean climate. The mean thermal structure and balanced circulation patterns are strongly modified near the surface and aloft. Warming of the subtropical atmosphere at altitude and cooling of the high latitude atmosphere at low levels takes place, which increases the mean pole-to-equator temperature contrast (i.e., "baroclinicity"). With radiatively active water ice clouds (RAC) compared to radiatively inert water ice clouds (nonRAC), significant changes in the intensity of the mean state and forced stationary Rossby modes occur, both of which affect the vigor and intensity of traveling, synoptic period weather systems. Such weather systems not only act as key agents in the transport of heat and momentum beyond the extent of the Hadley circulation, but also the transport of trace species such as water vapor, water ice-clouds, dust and others. The northern hemisphere (NH) forced Rossby waves and resultant wave train are augmented in the RAC case: the modes are more intense and the wave train is shifted equatorward. Significant changes also occur within the subtropics and tropics. The Rossby wave train sets up, combined with the traveling synoptic period weather systems (i.e., cyclones and anticyclones), the geographic extent of storm zones (or storm tracks) within the NH. A variety of circulation features will be presented which indicate contrasts between the RAC and nonRAC cases, and which highlight key effects radiatively-active clouds have on physical and dynamical processes active in the current climate of Mars.

Synoptic Traveling Weather Systems on Mars: Effects of Radiatively-Active Water Ice Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery; Kahre, Melinda; Haberle, Robert; Urata, Richard

2017-01-01

Atmospheric aerosols on Mars are critical in determining the nature of its thermal structure, its large-scale circulation, and hence the overall climate of the planet. We conduct multi-annual simulations with the latest version of the NASA Ames Mars global climate model (GCM), gcm2.3+, that includes a modernized radiative-transfer package and complex water-ice cloud microphysics package which permit radiative effects and interactions of suspended atmospheric aerosols (e.g., water ice clouds, water vapor, dust, and mutual interactions) to influence the net diabatic heating. Results indicate that radiatively active water ice clouds profoundly affect the seasonal and annual mean climate. The mean thermal structure and balanced circulation patterns are strongly modified near the surface and aloft. Warming of the subtropical atmosphere at altitude and cooling of the high latitude atmosphere at low levels takes place, which increases the mean pole-to-equator temperature contrast (i.e., "baroclinicity"). With radiatively active water ice clouds (RAC) compared to radiatively inert water ice clouds (nonRAC), significant changes in the intensity of the mean state and forced stationary Rossby modes occur, both of which affect the vigor and intensity of traveling, synoptic period weather systems.Such weather systems not only act as key agents in the transport of heat and momentum beyond the extent of the Hadley circulation, but also the transport of trace species such as water vapor, water ice-clouds, dust and others. The northern hemisphere (NH) forced Rossby waves and resultant wave train are augmented in the RAC case: the modes are more intense and the wave train is shifted equatorward. Significant changes also occur within the subtropics and tropics. The Rossby wave train sets up, combined with the traveling synoptic period weather systems (i.e., cyclones and anticyclones), the geographic extent of storm zones (or storm tracks) within the NH. A variety of circulation features will be presented which indicate contrasts between the RAC and nonRAC cases, and which highlight key effects radiatively-active clouds have on physical and dynamical processes active in the current climate of Mars.

Climate projection of synoptic patterns forming extremely high wind speed over the Barents Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surkova, Galina; Krylov, Aleksey

2017-04-01

Frequency of extreme weather events is not very high, but their consequences for the human well-being may be hazardous. These seldom events are not always well simulated by climate models directly. Sometimes it is more effective to analyze numerical projection of large-scale synoptic event generating extreme weather. For example, in mid-latitude surface wind speed depends mainly on the sea level pressure (SLP) field - its configuration and horizontal pressure gradient. This idea was implemented for analysis of extreme wind speed events over the Barents Sea. The calendar of high surface wind speed V (10 m above the surface) was prepared for events with V exceeding 99th percentile value in the central part of the Barents Sea. Analysis of probability distribution function of V was carried out on the base of ERA-Interim reanalysis data (6-hours, 0.75x0.75 degrees of latitude and longitude) for the period 1981-2010. Storm wind events number was found to be 240 days. Sea level pressure field over the sea and surrounding area was selected for each storm wind event. For the climate of the future (scenario RCP8.5), projections of SLP from CMIP5 numerical experiments were used. More than 20 climate models results of projected SLP (2006-2100) over the Barents Sea were correlated with modern storm wind SLP fields. Our calculations showed the positive tendency of annual frequency of storm SLP patterns over the Barents Sea by the end of 21st century.

Frontiers of Remote Sensing of the Oceans and Troposphere from Air and Space Platforms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1984-01-01

Several areas of remote sensing are addressed including: future satellite systems; air-sea interaction/wind; ocean waves and spectra/S.A.R.; atmospheric measurements (particulates and water vapor); synoptic and weather forecasting; topography; bathymetry; sea ice; and impact of remote sensing on synoptic analysis/forecasting.

Application of spatial synoptic classification in evaluating links between heat stress and cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in Prague, Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urban, Aleš; Kyselý, Jan

2018-01-01

Spatial synoptic classification (SSC) is here first employed in assessing heat-related mortality and morbidity in Central Europe. It is applied for examining links between weather patterns and cardiovascular (CVD) mortality and morbidity in an extended summer season (16 May-15 September) during 1994-2009. As in previous studies, two SSC air masses (AMs)—dry tropical (DT) and moist tropical (MT)—are associated with significant excess CVD mortality in Prague, while effects on CVD hospital admissions are small and insignificant. Excess mortality for ischaemic heart diseases is more strongly associated with DT, while MT has adverse effect especially on cerebrovascular mortality. Links between the oppressive AMs and excess mortality relate also to conditions on previous days, as DT and MT occur in typical sequences. The highest CVD mortality deviations are found 1 day after a hot spell's onset, when temperature as well as frequency of the oppressive AMs are highest. Following this peak is typically DT- to MT-like weather transition, characterized by decrease in temperature and increase in humidity. The transition between upward (DT) and downward (MT) phases is associated with the largest excess CVD mortality, and the change contributes to the increased and more lagged effects on cerebrovascular mortality. The study highlights the importance of critically evaluating SSC's applicability and benefits within warning systems relative to other synoptic and epidemiological approaches. Only a subset of days with the oppressive AMs is associated with excess mortality, and regression models accounting for possible meteorological and other factors explain little of the mortality variance.

Forecasting Cool Season Daily Peak Winds at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barrett, Joe, III; Short, David; Roeder, William

2008-01-01

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) for planning operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The morning outlook for peak speeds also begins the warning decision process for gusts ^ 35 kt, ^ 50 kt, and ^ 60 kt from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated that peak wind speeds are a challenging parameter to forecast during the cool season (October-April). The 45 WS requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a tool to help them forecast the speed and timing of the daily peak and average wind, from the surface to 300 ft on KSC/CCAFS during the cool season. The tool must only use data available by 1200 UTC to support the issue time of the Planning Forecasts. Based on observations from the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network, surface observations from the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF), and CCAFS upper-air soundings from the cool season months of October 2002 to February 2007, the AMU created multiple linear regression equations to predict the timing and speed of the daily peak wind speed, as well as the background average wind speed. Several possible predictors were evaluated, including persistence, the temperature inversion depth, strength, and wind speed at the top of the inversion, wind gust factor (ratio of peak wind speed to average wind speed), synoptic weather pattern, occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft, 4000 ft, or 5000 ft. Six synoptic patterns were identified: 1) surface high near or over FL, 2) surface high north or east of FL, 3) surface high south or west of FL, 4) surface front approaching FL, 5) surface front across central FL, and 6) surface front across south FL. The following six predictors were selected: 1) inversion depth, 2) inversion strength, 3) wind gust factor, 4) synoptic weather pattern, 5) occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and 6) strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft. The forecast tool was developed as a graphical user interface with Microsoft Excel to help the forecaster enter the variables, and run the appropriate regression equations. Based on the forecaster's input and regression equations, a forecast of the day's peak and average wind is generated and displayed. The application also outputs the probability that the peak wind speed will be ^ 35 kt, 50 kt, and 60 kt.

Effects of synoptic patterns on atmospheric chemistry and aerosols during the Arctic Ocean Expedition 1996

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsson, E. Douglas; Barr, Sumner

2001-12-01

The atmospheric program on the Arctic Ocean Expedition of July through September 1996 (AOE-96) was focused on aerosol climate feedback. The expedition took place close to the saddle point between a semipersistent anticyclonic ridge from near Scandinavia to the Arctic coast of eastern Siberia and a trough from the Canadian archipelago across the pole to north central Siberia. The weather varied from anticyclonic clear-sky conditions to cyclonic cloudy conditions, and 13 identifiable migratory features (frontal bands, wave disturbances) clearly influenced local weather, clouds, atmospheric transport, and chemistry. This includes an explosive polar cyclone, born at the lateral heat gradient between Greenland and the pack ice rather than between open sea and the pack ice. The synoptic scale weather systems caused the strongest variability in trace gases (O3 in particular) and aerosols, and also strong variability in the cloud cover. The formation of air masses over the pack ice primarily depends on if there is cyclonic (convergent) or anticyclonic (divergent) flow. Cyclonic flow resulted in a modified marine air mass loaded with vapor, but with low aerosol number concentrations owing to frequent clouds and fogs and efficient cloud scavenging of the aerosol. Anticyclonic flow resulted in almost continental air masses with clear sky, long residence time over the pack ice and subsidence slowly replacing the boundary layer with free tropospheric air, low vapor concentrations, but large aerosol number in lack of efficient cloud scavenging. The synoptic variability and advection from south of the ice edge were weaker than during the predecessor International Arctic Ocean Expedition in 1991 (IAOE-91), when on average the sampled air spent 55 hours over the pack ice compared to more than 120 hours during AOE-96, owing to exceptionally high cyclone activity in 1991. This caused a large difference in atmospheric transport, chemistry, and aerosols between the two expeditions.

Analysis of Numerical Weather Predictions of Reference Evapotranspiration and Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bughici, Theodor; Lazarovitch, Naftali; Fredj, Erick; Tas, Eran

2017-04-01

This study attempts to improve the forecast skill of the evapotranspiration (ET0) and Precipitation for the purpose of crop irrigation management over Israel using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Optimized crop irrigation, in term of timing and quantities, decreases water and agrochemicals demand. Crop water demands depend on evapotranspiration and precipitation. The common method for computing reference evapotranspiration, for agricultural needs, ET0, is according to the FAO Penman-Monteith equation. The weather variables required for ET0 calculation (air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and solar irradiance) are estimated by the WRF model. The WRF Model with two-way interacting domains at horizontal resolutions of 27, 9 and 3 km is used in the study. The model prediction was performed in an hourly time resolution and a 3 km spatial resolution, with forecast lead-time of up to four days. The WRF prediction of these variables have been compared against measurements from 29 meteorological stations across Israel for the year 2013. The studied area is small but with strong climatic gradient, diverse topography and variety of synoptic conditions. The forecast skill that was used for forecast validation takes into account the prediction bias, mean absolute error and root mean squared error. The forecast skill of the variables was almost robust to lead time, except for precipitation. The forecast skill was tested across stations with respect to topography and geographic location and for all stations with respect to seasonality and synoptic weather system determined by employing a semi-objective synoptic systems classification to the forecasted days. It was noticeable that forecast skill of some of the variables was deteriorated by seasonality and topography. However, larger impacts in the ET0 skill scores on the forecasted day are achieved by a synoptic based forecast. These results set the basis for increasing the robustness of ET0 to synoptic effects and for more precise crop irrigation over Israel.

An analysis of the synoptic and climatological applicability of circulation type classifications for Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broderick, Ciaran; Fealy, Rowan

2013-04-01

Circulation type classifications (CTCs) compiled as part of the COST733 Action, entitled 'Harmonisation and Application of Weather Type Classifications for European Regions', are examined for their synoptic and climatological applicability to Ireland based on their ability to characterise surface temperature and precipitation. In all 16 different objective classification schemes, representative of four different methodological approaches to circulation typing (optimization algorithms, threshold based methods, eigenvector techniques and leader algorithms) are considered. Several statistical metrics which variously quantify the ability of CTCs to discretize daily data into well-defined homogeneous groups are used to evaluate and compare different approaches to synoptic typing. The records from 14 meteorological stations located across the island of Ireland are used in the study. The results indicate that while it was not possible to identify a single optimum classification or approach to circulation typing - conditional on the location and surface variables considered - a number of general assertions regarding the performance of different schemes can be made. The findings for surface temperature indicate that that those classifications based on predefined thresholds (e.g. Litynski, GrossWetterTypes and original Lamb Weather Type) perform well, as do the Kruizinga and Lund classification schemes. Similarly for precipitation predefined type classifications return high skill scores, as do those classifications derived using some optimization procedure (e.g. SANDRA, Self Organizing Maps and K-Means clustering). For both temperature and precipitation the results generally indicate that the classifications perform best for the winter season - reflecting the closer coupling between large-scale circulation and surface conditions during this period. In contrast to the findings for temperature, spatial patterns in the performance of classifications were more evident for precipitation. In the case of this variable those more westerly synoptic stations open to zonal airflow and less influenced by regional scale forcings generally exhibited a stronger link with large-scale circulation.

Forcing, properties, structure, and antecedent synoptic climatology of the Snake River Plain Convergence Zone of eastern Idaho: Analyses of observations and numerical simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andretta, Thomas A.

The Snake River Plain Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is a convergent shear zone generated by synoptic-scale post cold-frontal winds in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) interacting with the complex topography of eastern Idaho. The SPCZ produces clouds and occasional precipitation over time scales of 6--12 hours in a significant area of mesoscale dimensions (10--50 x 10 3 km2). This meso-beta-scale feature also contributes to the precipitation climatology in a semi-arid plain. The SPCZ is climatologically linked to the passage of synoptic-scale cold fronts and typically occurs in the fall and winter months with the highest frequencies in October, November, and January. The Snake River Plain of eastern Idaho is covered by a dense surface mesonetwork of towers with sensible weather measurements, single Doppler weather radar, regional soundings, and operational model sources. The ability of numerical weather prediction models to simulate the SPCZ depends on several factors: the accuracy of the large scale flow upstream of the zone, terrain resolution, grid scale, boundary layer parameterizations of stability, cumulus parameterizations, and microphysics schemes. This dissertation explores several of these issues with the aforementioned observations and with the Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) model simulations of selected SPCZ events. This dissertation first explains the conceptual models of the flow patterns related to the genesis of the SPCZ in light of other well-documented topographically-generated zones. The study then explores the links between the theoretical models and observations of the SPCZ in several episodes. With this foundation, the dissertation then tests several hypotheses relating to the horizontal and vertical zone structure, topographic sensitivity on the zone structure, and boundary layer evolution of the zone through the use of high resolution nested grid numerical simulations. The SPCZ consists of windward and leeward flow regimes in Idaho which form under low Froude number (stable blocked flow) in a post cold-frontal environment. The SPCZ is a weak baroclinic feature. The formation of the zone is independent of the vertical wind shear in the middle to upper troposphere. With a grid scale of 4 km, the WRF-ARW model adequately reproduces the post cold-frontal environment, windward and leeward convergence zones, relative vertical vorticity belts, and precipitation bands in several SPCZ cases. The vertical structure of the SPCZ reveals upright reflectivity towers with circulations that tilt slightly with height into the colder air aloft. Topographic sensitivity analyses of the SPCZ indicate that the terrain-driven circulations and resulting snow bands are more defined at the finer terrain scales. The ambient horizontal wind shear in the tributary valleys of the Central Mountains creates potential vorticity (PV) banners. The PV banner maintenance and strength are directly tied to the terrain resolution. An environment of convective instability sometimes occurs as a layer of air is lifted along the gentle elevation rise of the eastern Magic Valley and lower plain. An environment of inertial instability forms within the anticyclonic (negative) vorticity belts in the upper plain. Potential symmetric instability (PSI) may be released in a moist environment near the vorticity banners. The planetary boundary layer perturbed by the SPCZ inside the Snake River Plain is characterized by a deeper mixed layer with stronger vertical motions relative to a PBL in a sheltered valley outside the plain. Finally, a 10-year antecedent synoptic climatology of 78 SPCZ events reveals two pattern types: Type N (wet and warm) and Type S (dry and cold). The 40° N parallel divides these two synoptic patterns.

A Synoptic Weather Typing Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Meteorological and Hydrological Risks at Local Scale in South-Central Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Chad Shouquan; Li, Qian; Li, Guilong

2010-05-01

The synoptic weather typing approach has become popular in evaluating the impacts of climate change on a variety of environmental problems. One of the reasons is its ability to categorize a complex set of meteorological variables as a coherent index, which can facilitate analyses of local climate change impacts. The weather typing method has been applied in Environment Canada to analyze climatic change impacts on various meteorological/hydrological risks, such as freezing rain, heavy rainfall, high-/low-flow events, air pollution, and human health. These studies comprise of three major parts: (1) historical simulation modeling to verify the hazardous events, (2) statistical downscaling to provide station-scale future climate information, and (3) estimates of changes in frequency and magnitude of future hazardous meteorological/hydrological events in this century. To achieve these goals, in addition to synoptic weather typing, the modeling conceptualizations in meteorology and hydrology and various linear/nonlinear regression techniques were applied. Furthermore, a formal model result verification process has been built into the entire modeling exercise. The results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables predicted by the models, showed very good agreement. This paper will briefly summarize these research projects, focusing on the modeling exercise and results.

The Analysis, Numerical Simulation, and Diagnosis of Extratropical Weather Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-09-30

The Analysis, Numerical Simulation, and Diagnosis of Extratropical Weather Systems Dr. Melvyn A. Shapiro NOAA/Environmental Technology Laboratory...formulation, and numerical prediction of the life cycles of synoptic-scale and mesoscale extratropical weather systems, including the influence of planetary...scale inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability on their evolution. These weather systems include: extratropical oceanic and land-falling cyclones

Status of the Polar Engineering Development Center's (PEDC) Open-Closed Boundary Synoptic Nowcast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerrard, A. J.; Kim, H.

2017-12-01

We present the most recent Polar Engineering Development Center (PEDC) developments, specifically the first magnetic-field open-closed boundary (OCB) determination scheme. This scheme is implemented in "near real time" and utilizes data from an array of fluxgate magnetometers that are distributed across the high Antarctic plateau, as per Urban et al. [2012]. This OCB determination enables a high-latitude, synoptic measure of space weather variability that provides for more regional determinations of particle precipitation and related impacts. This methodology therefore supplements exciting "index-based" or empically-based space weather nowcasts currently in use.

Atmospheric turbulence triggers pronounced diel pattern in karst carbonate geochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roland, M.; Serrano-Ortiz, P.; Kowalski, A. S.; Goddéris, Y.; Sánchez-Cañete, E. P.; Ciais, P.; Domingo, F.; Cuezva, S.; Sanchez-Moral, S.; Longdoz, B.; Yakir, D.; Van Grieken, R.; Schott, J.; Cardell, C.; Janssens, I. A.

2013-07-01

CO2 exchange between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere is key to understanding the feedbacks between climate change and the land surface. In regions with carbonaceous parent material, CO2 exchange patterns occur that cannot be explained by biological processes, such as disproportionate outgassing during the daytime or nighttime CO2 uptake during periods when all vegetation is senescent. Neither of these phenomena can be attributed to carbonate weathering reactions, since their CO2 exchange rates are too small. Soil ventilation induced by high atmospheric turbulence is found to explain atypical CO2 exchange between carbonaceous systems and the atmosphere. However, by strongly altering subsurface CO2 concentrations, ventilation can be expected to influence carbonate weathering rates. By imposing ventilation-driven CO2 outgassing in a carbonate weathering model, we show here that carbonate geochemistry is accelerated and does play a surprisingly large role in the observed CO2 exchange pattern of a semi-arid ecosystem. We found that by rapidly depleting soil CO2 during the daytime, ventilation disturbs soil carbonate equilibria and therefore strongly magnifies daytime carbonate precipitation and associated CO2 production. At night, ventilation ceases and the depleted CO2 concentrations increase steadily. Dissolution of carbonate is now enhanced, which consumes CO2 and largely compensates for the enhanced daytime carbonate precipitation. This is why only a relatively small effect on global carbonate weathering rates is to be expected. On the short term, however, ventilation has a drastic effect on synoptic carbonate weathering rates, resulting in a pronounced diel pattern that exacerbates the non-biological behavior of soil-atmosphere CO2 exchanges in dry regions with carbonate soils.

What If We Had A Magnetograph at Lagrangian L5?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pevtsov, Alexei A.; Bertello, Luca; MacNeice, Peter; Petrie, Gordon

2016-01-01

Synoptic Carrington charts of magnetic field are routinely used as an input for modelings of solar wind and other aspects of space weather forecast. However, these maps are constructed using only the observations from the solar hemisphere facing Earth. The evolution of magnetic flux on the "farside" of the Sun, which may affect the topology of coronal field in the "nearside," is largely ignored. It is commonly accepted that placing a magnetograph in Lagrangian L5 point would improve the space weather forecast. However, the quantitative estimates of anticipated improvements have been lacking. We use longitudinal magnetograms from the Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) to investigate how adding data from L5 point would affect the outcome of two major models used in space weather forecast.

Extended Edited Synoptic Cloud Reports from Ships and Land Stations Over the Globe, 1952-2009 (NDP-026C)

DOE Data Explorer

Hahn, C. J. [University of Arizona; Warren, S. G. [University of Washington; Eastman, R.

1999-08-01

This database contains surface synoptic weather reports for the entire globe, gathered from various available data sets. The reports were processed, edited, and rewritten to provide a single dataset of individual observations of clouds, spanning the 57 years 1952-2008 for ship data and the 39 years 1971-2009 for land station data. In addition to the cloud portion of the synoptic report, each edited report also includes the associated pressure, present weather, wind, air temperature, and dew point (and sea surface temperature over oceans). This data set is called the "Extended Edited Cloud Report Archive" (EECRA). The EECRA is based solely on visual cloud observations from weather stations, reported in the WMO synoptic code (WMO, 1974). Reports must contain cloud-type information to be included in the archive. Past data sources include those from the Fleet Numerical Oceanographic Center (FNOC, 1971-1976) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP, 1977-1996). This update uses data from a new source, the 'Integrated Surface Database' (ISD, 1997-2009; Smith et al., 2011). Our past analyses of the EECRA identified a subset of 5388 weather stations that were determined to produce reliable day and night observations of cloud amount and type. The update contains observations only from this subset of stations. Details concerning processing, previous problems, contents, and comments are available in the archive's original documentation . The EECRA contains about 81 million cloud observations from ships and 380 million from land stations. The data files have been compressed using unix. Unix/linux users can "uncompress" or "gunzip" the files after downloading. If you're interested in the NDP-026C database, then you'll also want to explore its related data products, NDP-026D and NDP-026E.

Characteristics of the Areas in which Fast Current Oil Control is Needed

DTIC Science & Technology

1973-11-01

Synoptic Meteorlogical Observations (1970) U. S. Department of Commerce, Local Cllmatologlcal Data (1972) 51 Q po «» o ov in .Hi «M iH H H <N S 4...Oceanographic Office, Washington, D. C. 24. Summary of Synoptic Meteorlogical Observations; U.S. Navy Weather Command, Washington, P C. 1970 - Volumes 1

Addressing the mischaracterization of extreme rainfall in regional climate model simulations - A synoptic pattern based bias correction approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jingwan; Sharma, Ashish; Evans, Jason; Johnson, Fiona

2018-01-01

Addressing systematic biases in regional climate model simulations of extreme rainfall is a necessary first step before assessing changes in future rainfall extremes. Commonly used bias correction methods are designed to match statistics of the overall simulated rainfall with observations. This assumes that change in the mix of different types of extreme rainfall events (i.e. convective and non-convective) in a warmer climate is of little relevance in the estimation of overall change, an assumption that is not supported by empirical or physical evidence. This study proposes an alternative approach to account for the potential change of alternate rainfall types, characterized here by synoptic weather patterns (SPs) using self-organizing maps classification. The objective of this study is to evaluate the added influence of SPs on the bias correction, which is achieved by comparing the corrected distribution of future extreme rainfall with that using conventional quantile mapping. A comprehensive synthetic experiment is first defined to investigate the conditions under which the additional information of SPs makes a significant difference to the bias correction. Using over 600,000 synthetic cases, statistically significant differences are found to be present in 46% cases. This is followed by a case study over the Sydney region using a high-resolution run of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, which indicates a small change in the proportions of the SPs and a statistically significant change in the extreme rainfall over the region, although the differences between the changes obtained from the two bias correction methods are not statistically significant.

A preliminary look at AVE-SESAME 3 conducted on 25-26 April 1979

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, S. F.; Horvath, N.; Turner, R. E.

1980-01-01

General weather conditions, including synoptic maps, radar reports, satellite photographs, precipitation areas and amounts, and a summary of severe weather reports are presented. These data provide researchers a preliminary look at conditions during the AVE-SESAME 3 period.

Characterization of synoptic patterns causing dust outbreaks that affect the Arabian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermida, L.; Merino, A.; Sánchez, J. L.; Fernández-González, S.; García-Ortega, E.; López, L.

2018-01-01

Dust storms pose serious weather hazards in arid and semiarid regions of the earth. Understanding the main synoptic conditions that give rise to dust outbreaks is important for issuing forecasts and warnings to the public in cases of severe storms. The aim of the present study is to determine synoptic patterns that are associated with or even favor dust outbreaks over the Arabian Peninsula. In this respect, red-green-blue dust composite images from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite are used to detect dust outbreaks affecting the Arabian Peninsula, with possible influences in southwestern Asia and northeastern Africa, between 2005 and 2013. The Meteosat imagery yielded a sample of 95 dust storm days. Meteorological fields from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data of wind fields at 10 m and 250 hPa, mean sea level pressure, and geopotential heights at 850 and 500 hPa were obtained for the dust storm days. Using principal component analysis in T-mode and non-hierarchical k-means clustering, we obtained four major atmospheric circulation patterns associated with dust outbreaks during the study days. Cluster 4 had the largest number of days with dust events, which were constrained to summer, and cluster 3 had the fewest. In clusters 1, 2 and 3, the jet stream favored the entry of a low-pressure area or trough that varied in location between the three clusters. Their most northerly location was found in cluster 4, along with an extensive low-pressure area supporting strong winds over the Arabian Peninsula. The spatial distribution of aerosol optical depth for each cluster obtained was characterized using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data. Then, using METAR stations, clusters were also characterized in terms of frequency and visibility.

A Geosynchronous Lidar System for Atmospheric Winds and Moisture Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Emmitt, G. D.

2001-01-01

An observing system comprised of two lidars in geosychronous orbit would enable the synoptic and meso-scale measurement of atmospheric winds and moisture both of which are key first-order variables of the Earth's weather equation. Simultaneous measurement of these parameters at fast revisit rates promises large advancements in our weather prediction skills. Such capabilities would be unprecedented and a) yield greatly improved and finer resolution initial conditions for models, b) make existing costly and cumbersome measurement approaches obsolete, and c) obviate the use of numerical techniques needed to correct data obtained using present observing systems. Additionally, simultaneous synoptic wind and moisture observations would lead to improvements in model parameterizations, and in our knowledge of small-scale weather processes. Technology and science data product assessments are ongoing. Results will be presented during the conference.

Urbanization-induced urban heat island and aerosol effects on climate extremes in the Yangtze River Delta region of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Shi; Qian, Yun; Zhao, Chun; Leung, Ruby; Wang, Hailong; Yang, Ben; Fan, Jiwen; Yan, Huiping; Yang, Xiu-Qun; Liu, Dongqing

2017-04-01

The WRF-Chem model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) is integrated for 5 years at convection-permitting scale to investigate the individual and combined impacts of urbanization-induced changes in land cover and pollutant emissions on regional climate in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in eastern China. Simulations with the urbanization effects reasonably reproduced the observed features of temperature and precipitation in the YRD region. Urbanization over the YRD induces an urban heat island (UHI) effect, which increases the surface temperature by 0.53 °C in summer and increases the annual heat wave days at a rate of 3.7 d yr-1 in the major megacities in the YRD, accompanied by intensified heat stress. In winter, the near-surface air temperature increases by approximately 0.7 °C over commercial areas in the cities but decreases in the surrounding areas. Radiative effects of aerosols tend to cool the surface air by reducing net shortwave radiation at the surface. Compared to the more localized UHI effect, aerosol effects on solar radiation and temperature influence a much larger area, especially downwind of the city cluster in the YRD. Results also show that the UHI increases the frequency of extreme summer precipitation by strengthening the convergence and updrafts over urbanized areas in the afternoon, which favor the development of deep convection. In contrast, the radiative forcing of aerosols results in a surface cooling and upper-atmospheric heating, which enhances atmospheric stability and suppresses convection. The combined effects of the UHI and aerosols on precipitation depend on synoptic conditions. Two rainfall events under two typical but different synoptic weather patterns are further analyzed. It is shown that the impact of urban land cover and aerosols on precipitation is not only determined by their influence on local convergence but also modulated by large-scale weather systems. For the case with a strong synoptic forcing associated with stronger winds and larger spatial convergence, the UHI and aerosol effects are relatively weak. When the synoptic forcing is weak, however, the UHI and aerosol effects on local convergence dominate. This suggests that synoptic forcing plays a significant role in modulating the urbanization-induced land-cover and aerosol effects on individual rainfall event. Hence precipitation changes due to urbanization effects may offset each other under different synoptic conditions, resulting in little changes in mean precipitation at longer timescales.

Urbanization-induced urban heat island and aerosol effects on climate extremes in the Yangtze River Delta region of China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhong, Shi; Qian, Yun; Zhao, Chun

The WRF-Chem model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) is integrated for 5 years at convection-permitting scale to investigate the individual and combined impacts of urbanization-induced changes in land cover and pollutant emissions on regional climate in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in eastern China. Simulations with the urbanization effects reasonably reproduced the observed features of temperature and precipitation in the YRD region. Urbanization over the YRD induces an urban heat island (UHI) effect, which increases the surface temperature by 0.53 °C in summer and increases the annual heat wave days at a rate of 3.7 d yr −1 in themore » major megacities in the YRD, accompanied by intensified heat stress. In winter, the near-surface air temperature increases by approximately 0.7 °C over commercial areas in the cities but decreases in the surrounding areas. Radiative effects of aerosols tend to cool the surface air by reducing net shortwave radiation at the surface. Compared to the more localized UHI effect, aerosol effects on solar radiation and temperature influence a much larger area, especially downwind of the city cluster in the YRD. Results also show that the UHI increases the frequency of extreme summer precipitation by strengthening the convergence and updrafts over urbanized areas in the afternoon, which favor the development of deep convection. In contrast, the radiative forcing of aerosols results in a surface cooling and upper-atmospheric heating, which enhances atmospheric stability and suppresses convection. The combined effects of the UHI and aerosols on precipitation depend on synoptic conditions. Two rainfall events under two typical but different synoptic weather patterns are further analyzed. It is shown that the impact of urban land cover and aerosols on precipitation is not only determined by their influence on local convergence but also modulated by large-scale weather systems. For the case with a strong synoptic forcing associated with stronger winds and larger spatial convergence, the UHI and aerosol effects are relatively weak. When the synoptic forcing is weak, however, the UHI and aerosol effects on local convergence dominate. This suggests that synoptic forcing plays a significant role in modulating the urbanization-induced land-cover and aerosol effects on individual rainfall event. Hence precipitation changes due to urbanization effects may offset each other under different synoptic conditions, resulting in little changes in mean precipitation at longer timescales.« less

Urbanization-induced urban heat island and aerosol effects on climate extremes in the Yangtze River Delta region of China

DOE PAGES

Zhong, Shi; Qian, Yun; Zhao, Chun; ...

2017-04-27

The WRF-Chem model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) is integrated for 5 years at convection-permitting scale to investigate the individual and combined impacts of urbanization-induced changes in land cover and pollutant emissions on regional climate in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in eastern China. Simulations with the urbanization effects reasonably reproduced the observed features of temperature and precipitation in the YRD region. Urbanization over the YRD induces an urban heat island (UHI) effect, which increases the surface temperature by 0.53 °C in summer and increases the annual heat wave days at a rate of 3.7 d yr −1 in themore » major megacities in the YRD, accompanied by intensified heat stress. In winter, the near-surface air temperature increases by approximately 0.7 °C over commercial areas in the cities but decreases in the surrounding areas. Radiative effects of aerosols tend to cool the surface air by reducing net shortwave radiation at the surface. Compared to the more localized UHI effect, aerosol effects on solar radiation and temperature influence a much larger area, especially downwind of the city cluster in the YRD. Results also show that the UHI increases the frequency of extreme summer precipitation by strengthening the convergence and updrafts over urbanized areas in the afternoon, which favor the development of deep convection. In contrast, the radiative forcing of aerosols results in a surface cooling and upper-atmospheric heating, which enhances atmospheric stability and suppresses convection. The combined effects of the UHI and aerosols on precipitation depend on synoptic conditions. Two rainfall events under two typical but different synoptic weather patterns are further analyzed. It is shown that the impact of urban land cover and aerosols on precipitation is not only determined by their influence on local convergence but also modulated by large-scale weather systems. For the case with a strong synoptic forcing associated with stronger winds and larger spatial convergence, the UHI and aerosol effects are relatively weak. When the synoptic forcing is weak, however, the UHI and aerosol effects on local convergence dominate. This suggests that synoptic forcing plays a significant role in modulating the urbanization-induced land-cover and aerosol effects on individual rainfall event. Hence precipitation changes due to urbanization effects may offset each other under different synoptic conditions, resulting in little changes in mean precipitation at longer timescales.« less

On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdon-Kidd, D.; Kiem, A. S.

2008-10-01

In this paper regional (synoptic) and large-scale climate drivers of rainfall are investigated for Victoria, Australia. A non-linear classification methodology known as self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify 20 key regional synoptic patterns, which are shown to capture a range of significant synoptic features known to influence the climate of the region. Rainfall distributions are assigned to each of the 20 patterns for nine rainfall stations located across Victoria, resulting in a clear distinction between wet and dry synoptic types at each station. The influence of large-scale climate modes on the frequency and timing of the regional synoptic patterns is also investigated. This analysis revealed that phase changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and/or Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are associated with a shift in the relative frequency of wet and dry synoptic types. Importantly, these results highlight the potential to utilise the link between the regional synoptic patterns derived in this study and large-scale climate modes to improve rainfall forecasting for Victoria, both in the short- (i.e. seasonal) and long-term (i.e. decadal/multi-decadal scale). In addition, the regional and large-scale climate drivers identified in this study provide a benchmark by which the performance of Global Climate Models (GCMs) may be assessed.

On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdon-Kidd, D. C.; Kiem, A. S.

2009-04-01

In this paper regional (synoptic) and large-scale climate drivers of rainfall are investigated for Victoria, Australia. A non-linear classification methodology known as self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify 20 key regional synoptic patterns, which are shown to capture a range of significant synoptic features known to influence the climate of the region. Rainfall distributions are assigned to each of the 20 patterns for nine rainfall stations located across Victoria, resulting in a clear distinction between wet and dry synoptic types at each station. The influence of large-scale climate modes on the frequency and timing of the regional synoptic patterns is also investigated. This analysis revealed that phase changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and/or the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are associated with a shift in the relative frequency of wet and dry synoptic types on an annual to inter-annual timescale. In addition, the relative frequency of synoptic types is shown to vary on a multi-decadal timescale, associated with changes in the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Importantly, these results highlight the potential to utilise the link between the regional synoptic patterns derived in this study and large-scale climate modes to improve rainfall forecasting for Victoria, both in the short- (i.e. seasonal) and long-term (i.e. decadal/multi-decadal scale). In addition, the regional and large-scale climate drivers identified in this study provide a benchmark by which the performance of Global Climate Models (GCMs) may be assessed.

Atmospheric observations for STS-1 landing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, R. E.; Arnold, J. E.; Wilson, G. S.

1981-01-01

A summary of synoptic weather conditions existing over the western United States is given for the time of shuttle descent into Edwards Air Force Base, California. The techniques and methods used to furnish synoptic atmospheric data at the surface and aloft for flight verification of the STS-1 orbiter during its descent into Edwards Air Force Base are specified. Examples of the upper level data set are given.

Low-frequency climate anomalies, changes in synoptic scale circulation patterns and statistics of extreme events over south-east Poland during the Last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slawinska, J. M.; Bartoszek, K.; Gabriel, C. J.

2016-12-01

Long-term predictions of changes in extreme event frequency are of utmost importance due to their high societal and economic impact. Yet, current projections are of limited skills as they rely on satellite records that are relatively short compared to the timescale of interest, and also due to the presence of a significant anthropogenic trend superimposed onto other low-frequency variabilities. Novel simulations of past climates provide unique opportunity to separate external perturbations from internal climate anomalies and to attribute the latter to systematic changes in different types of synoptic scale circulation and distributions of high-frequency events. Here we study such changes by employing the Last Millennium Ensemble of climate simulations carried out with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, focusing in particular on decadal changes in frequency of extreme precipitation events over south-east Poland. We analyze low-frequency modulations of dominant patterns of synoptic scale circulations over Europe and their dependence on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, along with their coupling with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Moreover, we examine whether some decades of persistently anomalous statistics of extreme events can be attributed to externally forced (e.g., via volcanic eruptions) perturbations of the North Atlantic climate. In the end, we discuss the possible linkages and physical mechanisms connecting volcanic eruptions, low-frequency variabilities of North Atlantic climate and changes in statistics of high impact weather, and compare briefly our results with some historical and paleontological records.

Impact of seasonal synoptic weather types on local PM10 concentrations in Bavaria/Germany: recent conditions and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weitnauer, Claudia; Beck, Christoph; Jacobeit, Jucundus

2015-04-01

It is a matter of common knowledge that local concentrations of PM10 (fine particles in the air with a medium diameter less than 10 μm) vary with the seasons in Europe. These concentrations are influenced on the one hand by the amount of natural and anthropogenic emissions and on the other hand by large-scale and local meteorological conditions. In Bavaria (part of southern Germany) as the target region of the present study, the PM10 concentrations are particularly high in winter time. One reason for this are increased particle emissions due to domestic heating and traffic load in December, January and February. As several studies in other European regions indicated, a distinct effect of the large-scale synoptic weather situation in winter on local PM10 concentrations should be considered as another reason. The main task of this study is to use seasonal synoptic weather types, which are optimized with respect to daily mean PM10 data at 16 Bavarian cities, and therefore are classified by using daily gridded NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (2.5° x 2.5° horizontal resolution) for the recent period 1980 - 2011 over a Central European spatial domain, to describe the impact of the large-scale meteorological conditions on the local particle concentrations. The weather types are related to monthly PM10 indices by using different transfer techniques like direct synoptic downscaling, multiple regression and generalized linear models as well as random forests. The PM10 indices are determined by averaging daily to monthly data (PMmean) or by counting the daily exceedances of a particular threshold (> 50 μg/m3, PMe50). The generated transfer models are evaluated in calibration and validation periods using several forecast skills, for example the mean squared skill score (MSSS) or the Heidke Skill Score (HSS). The sufficiently performing models are then applied to weather types derived from future climate change scenarios of the global climate model ECHAM 6 for the IPCC scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 in order to estimate future climate-change induced modifications of local PM10 concentrations in Bavaria.

Traveling Weather Disturbances in Mars Southern Extratropics: Sway of the Great Impact Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

2016-01-01

As on Earth, between late autumn and early spring on Mars middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal contrasts between the equator and poles (i.e. "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e. transient synoptic-period waves). Within a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, such large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. These wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and moreover generalized tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water vapor and water-ice clouds) between low and high latitudes of the planet. The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This global circulation model imposes interactively lifted (and radiatively active) dust based on a threshold value of the instantaneous surface stress. Compared to observations, the model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e. globally averaged, a more dusty atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). In contrast to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense synoptically. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e. east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather disturbances are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars' full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating essential large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars' transient barotropic/baroclinic eddies are significantly influenced by the great impact basins of this hemisphere (e.g., Argyre and Hellas). In addition, the occurrence of a southern storm zone in late winter and early spring is keyed particularly to the western hemisphere via orographic influences arising from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate fundamental differences amongst such simulations and these are described.

Traveling Weather Disturbances in Mars' Southern Extratropics: Sway of the Great Impact Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

2016-04-01

As on Earth, between late autumn and early spring on Mars middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal contrasts between the equator and poles (i.e., "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Within a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, such large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. These wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and moreover generalized tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water vapor and water-ice clouds) between low and high latitudes of the planet. The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This global circulation model imposes interactively lifted (and radiatively active) dust based on a threshold value of the instantaneous surface stress. Compared to observations, the model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a more dusty atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). In contrast to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense synoptically. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather disturbances are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars' full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating essential large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars' transient barotropic/baroclinic eddies are significantly influenced by the great impact basins of this hemisphere (e.g., Argyre and Hellas). In addition, the occurrence of a southern storm zone in late winter and early spring is keyed particularly to the western hemisphere via orographic influences arising from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate fundamental differences amongst such simulations and these are described.

The relationship between extreme weather events and crop losses in central Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Li-Wei

2017-09-01

The frequency of extreme weather events, which cause severe crop losses, is increasing. This study investigates the relationship between crop losses and extreme weather events in central Taiwan from 2003 to 2015 and determines the main factors influencing crop losses. Data regarding the crop loss area and meteorological information were obtained from government agencies. The crops were categorised into the following five groups: `grains', `vegetables', `fruits', `flowers' and `other crops'. The extreme weather events and their synoptic weather patterns were categorised into six and five groups, respectively. The data were analysed using the z score, correlation coefficient and stepwise regression model. The results show that typhoons had the highest frequency of all extreme weather events (58.3%). The largest crop loss area (4.09%) was caused by two typhoons and foehn wind in succession. Extreme wind speed coupled with heavy rainfall is an important factor affecting the losses in the grain and vegetable groups. Extreme wind speed is a common variable that affects the loss of `grains', `vegetables', `fruits' and `flowers'. Consecutive extreme weather events caused greater crop losses than individual events. Crops with long production times suffered greater losses than those with short production times. This suggests that crops with physical structures that can be easily damaged and long production times would benefit from protected cultivation to maintain food security.

Edited Synoptic Cloud Reports from Ships and Land Stations Over the Globe, 1982-1991 (NDP-026B)

DOE Data Explorer

Hahn, Carole J. [University of Arizona; Warren, Stephen G. [University of Washington; London, Julius [University of Colorado

1996-01-01

Surface synoptic weather reports for the entire globe for the 10-year period from December 1981 through November 1991 have been processed, edited, and rewritten to provide a data set designed for use in cloud analyses. The information in these reports relating to clouds, including the present weather information, was extracted and put through a series of quality control checks. Reports not meeting certain quality control standards were rejected, as were reports from buoys and automatic weather stations. Correctable inconsistencies within reports were edited for consistency, so that the "edited cloud report" can be used for cloud analysis without further quality checking. Cases of "sky obscured" were interpreted by reference to the present weather code as to whether they indicated fog, rain or snow and were given appropriate cloud type designations. Nimbostratus clouds, which are not specifically coded for in the standard synoptic code, were also given a special designation. Changes made to an original report are indicated in the edited report so that the original report can be reconstructed if desired. While low cloud amount is normally given directly in the synoptic report, the edited cloud report also includes the amounts, either directly reported or inferred, of middle and high clouds, both the non-overlapped amounts and the "actual" amounts (which may be overlapped). Since illumination from the moon is important for the adequate detection of clouds at night, both the relative lunar illuminance and the solar altitude are given, as well as a parameter that indicates whether our recommended illuminance criterion was satisfied. This data set contains 124 million reports from land stations and 15 million reports from ships. Each report is 56 characters in length. The archive consists of 240 files, one file for each month of data for land and ocean separately. With this data set a user can develop a climatology for any particular cloud type or group of types, for any geographical region and any spatial and temporal resolution desired.

Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars’ Southern Extratropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

2017-10-01

Between late fall and early spring, Mars’ middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in Mars Southern Extratropics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

2017-01-01

Between late fall and early spring, Mars' middle- and high-latitude atmosphere supports strong mean equator-to-pole temperature contrasts and an accompanying mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from both the MGS Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the MRO Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) indicate that a mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). Such extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation as they serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of such traveling extratropical synoptic disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively-lifted and radiatively-active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Results of the US contribution to the joint US/USSR Bering Sea experiment. [atmospheric circulation and sea ice cover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, W. J.; Chang, T. C.; Fowler, M. G.; Gloersen, P.; Kuhn, P. M.; Ramseier, R. O.; Ross, D. B.; Stambach, G.; Webster, W. J., Jr.; Wilheit, T. T.

1974-01-01

The atmospheric circulation which occurred during the Bering Sea Experiment, 15 February to 10 March 1973, in and around the experiment area is analyzed and related to the macroscale morphology and dynamics of the sea ice cover. The ice cover was very complex in structure, being made up of five ice types, and underwent strong dynamic activity. Synoptic analyses show that an optimum variety of weather situations occurred during the experiment: an initial strong anticyclonic period (6 days), followed by a period of strong cyclonic activity (6 days), followed by weak anticyclonic activity (3 days), and finally a period of weak cyclonic activity (4 days). The data of the mesoscale test areas observed on the four sea ice option flights, and ship weather, and drift data give a detailed description of mesoscale ice dynamics which correlates well with the macroscale view: anticyclonic activity advects the ice southward with strong ice divergence and a regular lead and polynya pattern; cyclonic activity advects the ice northward with ice convergence, or slight divergence, and a random lead and polynya pattern.

Synoptic-scale fire weather conditions in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayasaka, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Hiroshi L.; Bieniek, Peter A.

2016-09-01

Recent concurrent widespread fires in Alaska are evaluated to assess their associated synoptic-scale weather conditions. Several periods of high fire activity from 2003 to 2015 were identified using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) hotspot data by considering the number of daily hotspots and their continuity. Fire weather conditions during the top six periods of high fire activity in the fire years of 2004, 2005, 2009, and 2015 were analyzed using upper level (500 hPa) and near surface level (1000 hPa) atmospheric reanalysis data. The top four fire-periods occurred under similar unique high-pressure fire weather conditions related to Rossby wave breaking (RWB). Following the ignition of wildfires, fire weather conditions related to RWB events typically result in two hotspot peaks occurring before and after high-pressure systems move from south to north across Alaska. A ridge in the Gulf of Alaska resulted in southwesterly wind during the first hotspot peak. After the high-pressure system moved north under RWB conditions, the Beaufort Sea High developed and resulted in relatively strong easterly wind in Interior Alaska and a second (largest) hotspot peak during each fire period. Low-pressure-related fire weather conditions occurring under cyclogenesis in the Arctic also resulted in high fire activity under southwesterly wind with a single large hot-spot peak.

Coordination, Data Management and Enhancement of the International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP) a US Interagency Arctic Buoy Programme \\201USIABP\\202 contribution to the IABP

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

data from the IABP ); 2.) Forecasting weather and sea ice conditions; 3.) Forcing, assimilation and validation of global weather and climate models ...International Arctic Buoy Programme ( IABP ) A US Interagency Arctic Buoy Programme (USIABP) contribution to the IABP Dr. Ignatius G. Rigor Polar...ice motion. These observations are assimilated into Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models that are used to forecast weather on synoptic time

Tornado activity at SRP during 1976

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pepper, D.W.; Schubert, J.F.

1978-07-01

Tracks of three small tornadoes were confirmed on the site of the Savannah River Plant during 1976. Only minor damage to buildings and vehicles was experienced. The tornadoes were rated F1 on the Fujita-Pearson scale. Synoptic weather conditions from the National Weather Service and from the SRP seven-tower data system were recorded.

Synoptic climatological analysis of persistent cold air pools over the Carpathian Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szabóné André, Karolina; Bartholy, Judit; Pongrácz, Rita

2016-04-01

A persistent cold air pool (PCAP) is a winter-time, anticyclone-related weather event over a relatively large basin. During this time the air is colder near the surface than aloft. This inversion near the surface can last even for weeks. As the cold air cools down, relative humidity increases and fog forms. The entire life cycle of a PCAP depends on the large scale circulation pattern. PCAP usually appears when an anticyclone builds up after a cold front passed over the examined basin, and it is usually destructed by a coming strong cold front of another midlatitude cyclone. Moreover, the intensity of the anticyclone affects the intensity of the PCAP. PCAP may result in different hazards for the population: (1) Temperature inversion in the surface layers together with weak wind may lead to severe air pollution causing health problems for many people, especially, elderly and children. (2) The fog and/or smog during chilly weather conditions often results in freezing rain. Both fog and freezing rain can distract transportation and electricity supply. Unfortunately, the numerical weather prediction models have difficulties to predict PCAP formation and destruction. One of the reasons is that PCAP is not defined objectively with a simple formula, which could be easily applied to the numerical output data. However, according to some recommendations from the synoptic literature, the shallow convective potential energy (SCPE) can be used to mathematically describe PCAP. In this study, we used the ERA-Interim reanalysis datasets to examine this very specific weather event (i.e., PCAP) over the Carpathian Basin. The connection between the mean sea level pressure and some PCAP measures (e.g., SCPE, energy deficit, etc.) is evaluated. For instance, we used logistic regression to identify PCAP periods over the Carpathian Basin. Then, further statistical analysis includes the evaluation of the length and intensity of these PCAP periods.

Differences in Meteorological Conditions between Days with Persistent and Non-Persistent Pollution in Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, Ting; Wu, Renguang; Huang, Gang

2018-02-01

We compared the regional synoptic patterns and local meteorological conditions during persistent and non-persistent pollution events in Beijing using US NCEP-Department of Energy reanalysis outputs and observations from meteorological stations. The analysis focused on the impacts of high-frequency (period < 90 days) variations in meteorological conditions on persistent pollution events (those lasting for at least 3 days). Persistent pollution events tended to occur in association with slow-moving weather systems producing stagnant weather conditions, whereas rapidly moving weather systems caused a dramatic change in the local weather conditions so that the pollution event was short-lived. Although Beijing was under the influence of anomalous southerly winds in all four seasons during pollution events, notable differences were identified in the regional patterns of sea-level pressure and local anomalies in relative humidity among persistent pollution events in different seasons. A region of lower pressure was present to the north of Beijing in spring, fall, and winter, whereas regions of lower and higher pressures were observed northwest and southeast of Beijing, respectively, in summer. The relative humidity near Beijing was higher in fall and winter, but lower in spring and summer. These differences may explain the seasonal dependence of the relationship between air pollution and the local meteorological variables. Our analysis showed that the temperature inversion in the lower troposphere played an important part in the occurrence of air pollution under stagnant weather conditions. Some results from this study are based on a limited number of events and thus require validation using more data.

Antarctic mesocyclone regimes from satellite and conventional data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitch, Mark; Carleton, Andrew M.

1992-03-01

Mesoscale vortices in the Antarctic, poleward of 50°S, are examined in the synoptic context for the Ross Sea sector (100°E eastward to 80°W) for transition and winter months of 1988, using DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program) thermal infrared (TIR) images. Mesoscale vortices are classified and tracked and the dominant characteristics, such as life span, speed of movement and preferred geographical locations of formation, are defined and discussed. A "superposed epoch" (compositing) method utilizing 1000 and 500mb height data identifies the dominant synoptic regimes in which mesoscale vortices tend to develop. This analysis indicates that during active or outbreak periods, a negative thickness anomaly ("cold pool") is located northeast of the Ross Sea, and mesoscale vortices tend to occur on the poleward side of that anomaly. In addition, an enhanced trough-ridge pattern is evident for the Ross Sea sector compared with the composite pattern for inactive, or dearth, periods. The active periods of mesoscale vortices appear to originate from Antarctica, possibly via the persistent katabatic outflows from the ice sheet, rather than from teleconnections to lower latitudes. Analysis of Automatic Weather Station (AWS) data for the Ross Sea region supports this notion, at least for individual cases. Confirmation of these findings for the corresponding months of additional years is continuing.

An Automated Solar Synoptic Analysis Software System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, S.; Lee, S.; Oh, S.; Kim, J.; Lee, J.; Kim, Y.; Lee, J.; Moon, Y.; Lee, D.

2012-12-01

We have developed an automated software system of identifying solar active regions, filament channels, and coronal holes, those are three major solar sources causing the space weather. Space weather forecasters of NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center produce the solar synoptic drawings as a daily basis to predict solar activities, i.e., solar flares, filament eruptions, high speed solar wind streams, and co-rotating interaction regions as well as their possible effects to the Earth. As an attempt to emulate this process with a fully automated and consistent way, we developed a software system named ASSA(Automated Solar Synoptic Analysis). When identifying solar active regions, ASSA uses high-resolution SDO HMI intensitygram and magnetogram as inputs and providing McIntosh classification and Mt. Wilson magnetic classification of each active region by applying appropriate image processing techniques such as thresholding, morphology extraction, and region growing. At the same time, it also extracts morphological and physical properties of active regions in a quantitative way for the short-term prediction of flares and CMEs. When identifying filament channels and coronal holes, images of global H-alpha network and SDO AIA 193 are used for morphological identification and also SDO HMI magnetograms for quantitative verification. The output results of ASSA are routinely checked and validated against NOAA's daily SRS(Solar Region Summary) and UCOHO(URSIgram code for coronal hole information). A couple of preliminary scientific results are to be presented using available output results. ASSA will be deployed at the Korean Space Weather Center and serve its customers in an operational status by the end of 2012.

Synoptic versus regional causes of icing on wind turbines at an exposed wind farm site in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weissinger, Maximilian; Strauss, Lukas; Serafin, Stefano; Dorninger, Manfred; Burchhart, Thomas; Fink, Martin

2017-04-01

Ice accretion on wind turbine blades can lead to significant power production loss or even permanent structural damage on the turbine. With the ongoing construction of wind farms at sites with increased icing potential in cold climates, accurate icing predictions are needed to optimise power plant operation. To this end, the frequency of occurrence and the causes of meteorological icing need to be better understood. The project ICE CONTROL, an Austrian research initiative, aims to improve icing forecasts through measurements, probabilistic forecasting, and verification of icing on wind turbine blades. The project focuses on a wind farm site near Ellern, Germany, located on the Hunsrück, a hilly terrain rising above the surrounding plain by 200-300 metres. Production data from the last three winters show that icing events tend to occur more often at the wind turbines on top of the highest hills. The present study aims to investigate historical cases of wind turbine icing and their meteorological causes at the Ellern wind farm. The data available consists of a three-year period (2013-2016) of operational data from the Ellern wind farm as well as meteorological measurements at nearby stations operated by the German Weather Service (DWD). In addition, radiosondes and weather charts are taken into account. The main objective of this work is, first, to link the local and regional weather conditions to larger-scale weather patterns and prevailing air masses, and second, to determine the types of icing (in-cloud vs. freezing precipation). Results show that in most icing cases the cloud base height was below the hub height while the temperature was just below the freezing point. Precipitation was absent in most cases. This suggests that most of the observed icing events were due to in-cloud icing. Icing conditions occurred often (but not exclusively) under specific synoptic-scale weather conditions, such as north-westerly flow advecting maritime polar air masses to Central Europe. In other cases, icing events were favoured by the development of low-level thermal inversions during weak south-easterly flow conditions.

Atmospheric circulation patterns and spatial climatic variations in Beringia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mock, Cary J.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Patricia M.

1998-08-01

Analyses of more than 40 years of climatic data reveal intriguing spatial variations in climatic patterns for Beringia (North-eastern Siberia and Alaska), aiding the understanding of the hierarchy of climatic controls that operate at different spatial scales within the Arctic. A synoptic climatology, using a subjective classification methodology on January and July sea level pressure, and July 500 hPa height anomaly patterns, identified 13 major atmospheric circulation patterns (26 pairs consisting of 13 synoptic/temperature and 13 synoptic/precipitation comparisons) that occur over Beringia. Composite anomaly maps of circulation, temperature, and precipitation described the spatial variability of surface climatic responses to circulation. Results indicate that nine synoptic pairs yield homogeneous surface climatic anomaly patterns throughout most of Beringia. However, many of the surface climatic responses illustrate heterogeneous anomaly patterns as a result of variations in circulation controls, such as troughing over East Asia and the Pacific subtropical high superimposed over topography, with small shifts in atmospheric circulation dramatically altering spatial variations of anomaly patterns. Distinctive contrasts in climatic responses, as suggested from ten synoptic pairs, are clearly evident for Western Beringia versus Eastern Beringia. These results offer important implications for scholars interested in assessing late Quaternary climatic change in the region from interannual to millennial timescales.

Modeling Mars Cyclogenesis and Frontal Waves: Seasonal Variations and Implications on Dust Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, J. L.; Kahre, M. A.

2014-01-01

Between late autumn through early spring,middle and high latitudes onMars exhibit strong equator-to-polemean temperature contrasts (i.e., "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that such strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic period waves) [1, 2]. For a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, these large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. The wave-like disturbances serve as agents in the transport of heat and momentum between low and high latitudes of the planet. Through cyclonic/anticyclonic winds, intense shear deformations, contractions-dilatations in temperature and density, and sharp perturbations amongst atmospheric tracers (i.e., dust, volatiles (e.g., water vapor) and condensates (e.g., water-ice cloud particles)), Mars' extratropical weather systems have significant sub-synoptic scale ramifications by supporting atmospheric frontal waves (Fig. 1).

Meteorological Modeling of Wintertime Cold Air Pool Stagnation Episodes in the Uintah and Salt Lake Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crosman, E.; Horel, J.; Blaylock, B. K.; Foster, C.

2014-12-01

High wintertime ozone concentrations in rural areas associated with oil and gas development and high particulate concentrations in urban areas have become topics of increasing concern in the Western United States, as both primary and secondary pollutants become trapped within stable wintertime boundary layers. While persistent cold air pools that enable such poor wintertime air quality are typically associated with high pressure aloft and light winds, the complex physical processes that contribute to the formation, maintenance, and decay of persistent wintertime temperature inversions are only partially understood. In addition, obtaining sufficiently accurate numerical weather forecasts and meteorological simulations of cold air pools for input into chemical models remains a challenge. This study examines the meteorological processes associated with several wintertime pollution episodes in Utah's Uintah and Salt Lake Basins using numerical Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations and observations collected from the Persistent Cold Air Pool and Uintah Basin Ozone Studies. The temperature, vertical structure, and winds within these cold air pools was found to vary as a function of snow cover, snow albedo, land use, cloud cover, large-scale synoptic flow, and episode duration. We evaluate the sensitivity of key atmospheric features such as stability, planetary boundary layer depth, local wind flow patterns and transport mechanisms to variations in surface forcing, clouds, and synoptic flow. Finally, noted deficiencies in the meteorological models of cold air pools and modifications to the model snow and microphysics treatment that have resulted in improved cold pool simulations will be presented.

Intercomparisons of radiosondes and an airborne refractometer for measuring radio ducts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrissey, J. F.; Izumi, Y.; Cote, O. R.

1986-07-01

The capabilities of two types of radiosondes and an aircraft refractometer to measure radio ducting conditions were compared in a series of flights in September 1985 at Chatham, Mass., on Cape Cod. The tests were part of a program studying radio propagation on Air Force communication links. The intercomparisons were made between data from a refractometer mounted on a small single engine aircraft (Cessna 172) and data from an operational National Weather Service synoptic sounding system. The synoptic sonde and the portable sonde were often on the same balloon train. The comparisons show that the aircraft refractometer data indicate the highest number of ducts and the synoptic data the least number of ducts.

Evaluation of operational numerical weather predictions in relation to the prevailing synoptic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pytharoulis, Ioannis; Tegoulias, Ioannis; Karacostas, Theodore; Kotsopoulos, Stylianos; Kartsios, Stergios; Bampzelis, Dimitrios

2015-04-01

The Thessaly plain, which is located in central Greece, has a vital role in the financial life of the country, because of its significant agricultural production. The aim of DAPHNE project (http://www.daphne-meteo.gr) is to tackle the problem of drought in this area by means of Weather Modification in convective clouds. This problem is reinforced by the increase of population and the water demand for irrigation, especially during the warm period of the year. The nonhydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), is utilized for research and operational purposes of DAPHNE project. The WRF output fields are employed by the partners in order to provide high-resolution meteorological guidance and plan the project's operations. The model domains cover: i) Europe, the Mediterranean sea and northern Africa, ii) Greece and iii) the wider region of Thessaly (at selected periods), at horizontal grid-spacings of 15km, 5km and 1km, respectively, using 2-way telescoping nesting. The aim of this research work is to investigate the model performance in relation to the prevailing upper-air synoptic circulation. The statistical evaluation of the high-resolution operational forecasts of near-surface and upper air fields is performed at a selected period of the operational phase of the project using surface observations, gridded fields and weather radar data. The verification is based on gridded, point and object oriented techniques. The 10 upper-air circulation types, which describe the prevailing conditions over Greece, are employed in the synoptic classification. This methodology allows the identification of model errors that occur and/or are maximized at specific synoptic conditions and may otherwise be obscured in aggregate statistics. Preliminary analysis indicates that the largest errors are associated with cyclonic conditions. Acknowledgments This research work of Daphne project (11SYN_8_1088) is co-funded by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek national funds, through the action "COOPERATION 2011: Partnerships of Production and Research Institutions in Focused Research and Technology Sectors" in the framework of the Operational Programme "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" and Regions in Transition (OPC II, NSRF 2007-2013).

Large-Scale Weather Disturbances in Mars’ Southern Extratropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

2015-11-01

Between late autumn and early spring, Mars’ middle and high latitudes within its atmosphere support strong mean thermal gradients between the tropics and poles. Observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports intense, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic-period waves). These extratropical weather disturbances are key components of the global circulation. Such wave-like disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum, and generalized scalar/tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, water-vapor and ice clouds). The character of large-scale, traveling extratropical synoptic-period disturbances in Mars' southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a moderately high-resolution Mars global climate model (Mars GCM). This Mars GCM imposes interactively lifted and radiatively active dust based on a threshold value of the surface stress. The model exhibits a reasonable "dust cycle" (i.e., globally averaged, a dustier atmosphere during southern spring and summer occurs). Compared to their northern-hemisphere counterparts, southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are far less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are examined. Simulations that adapt Mars’ full topography compared to simulations that utilize synthetic topographies emulating key large-scale features of the southern middle latitudes indicate that Mars’ transient barotropic/baroclinic eddies are highly influenced by the great impact basins of this hemisphere (e.g., Argyre and Hellas). The occurrence of a southern storm zone in late winter and early spring appears to be anchored to the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Heavy Thunderstorm Synoptic Climatology and Forcing Mechanisms in Saudi Arabia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghulam, Ayman S.

2010-05-01

Meteorologists are required to provide accurate and comprehensive weather information for planning and operational aviation, agricultural, water projects and also for the public. In general, weather phenomena such as thunderstorms over the area between the tropics and the middle latitudes are not fully understood, particularly in the Middle East area, for many reasons such as: 1) the complexity of the nature of the climate due to the wide-ranging diversity in the topography and landscape in the area; 2) the lack of meteorological data in the area; and 3) the lack of studies on local weather situations. In arid regions such as Saudi Arabia, the spatial and temporal variation of thunderstorms and associated rainfall are essential in determining their effects on social and economic conditions. Thunderstorms form rapidly, due to the fact that the significant heating of the air from the surface and the ensuing rainfall usually occurs within a short period of time. Thus, understanding thunderstorms and rainfall distribution in time and space would be useful for hydrologists, meteorologists and for environmental studies. Research all over the world has shown, however, that consideration of local factors like Low Level Jets (LLJ), moisture flux, sea breezes, and the Red Sea Convergence Zone (RSCZ) would be valuable in thunderstorm prediction. The combined effects of enhanced low-level moisture convergence and layer destabilization due to upslope flow over mountainous terrain has been shown to be responsible for thunderstorm development in otherwise non-favourable conditions. However, there might be other synoptic features associated with heavy thunderstorms or cause them, but these features have not been investigated in any research in Saudi Arabia. Thus, relating the local weather and synoptic situations with those over the middle latitudes will provide a valuable background for the forecasters to issue the medium-range forecasts which are important for many projects. These forecasts become possible when the movement and the development of the mid-latitude disturbances are known very well. To further increase our understanding of the inter-annual variability of thunderstorms in semi-arid areas such as Saudi Arabia, it is necessary to consider the relationship between this variability and the large-scale atmospheric parameters in addition to the geographical features. Moreover, better insight into the monthly variations of the synoptic situations in Saudi Arabia is considered to be important for understanding the broad mechanisms responsible for thunderstorm occurrences in this geographical area. This information is highly important for aviation and other sectors in Saudi Arabia - both public and private. This paper aims to investigate the favourable synoptic environments for heavy thunderstorm initiation and development in Saudi Arabia. The importance of the monthly synoptic analysis of all days (1998-2003), heavy thunderstorm days, and dry days was intended to be demonstrated. Therefore, the monthly mean charts and deviations from the mean (anomalies) of specific meteorological parameters for heavy thunderstorm days and dry days for the months of January-December for the period 1998-2003, was illustrated to examine the synoptic conditions leading to heavy thunderstorm events in Saudi Arabia.

Influence of synoptic weather patterns on solar irradiance variability in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parding, Kajsa; Hinkelman, Laura; Liepert, Beate; Ackerman, Thomas; Dagestad, Knut-Frode; Asle Olseth, Jan

2014-05-01

Solar radiation is important for many aspects of existence on Earth, including the biosphere, the hydrological cycle, and creatures living on the planet. Previous studies have reported decadal trends in observational records of surface shortwave (SW) irradiance around the world, too strong to be caused by varying solar output. These observed decadal trends have been dubbed "solar dimming and brightening" and are believed to be related to changes in atmospheric aerosols and cloud cover. Because the observed solar variability coincides with qualitative air pollution histories, the dimming and brightening have become almost synonymous with shortwave attenuation by anthropogenic aerosols. However, there are indications that atmospheric circulation patterns have influenced the dimming and brightening in some regions, e.g., Alaska and Scandinavia. In this work, we focus on the role of atmospheric circulation patterns in modifying shortwave irradiance. An examination of European SW irradiance data from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) shows that while there are periods of predominantly decreasing (~1970-1985) and increasing (~1985-2007) SW irradiance, the changes are not spatially uniform within Europe and in a majority of locations not statistically significant. To establish a connection between weather patterns and sunshine, regression models of SW irradiance are fitted using a daily classification of European weather called Grosswetterlagen (GWL). The GWL reconstructions of shortwave irradiance represent the part of the solar variability that is related to large scale weather patterns, which should be effectively separated from the influence of varying anthropogenic aerosol emissions. The correlation (R) between observed and reconstruced SW irradiance is between 0.31 and 0.75, depending on station and season, all statistically significant (p<0.05, estimated with a bootstrap test). In central and eastern parts of Europe, the observed decadal SW variability is poorly represented by the GWL models, but in northern Europe, the GWL model recreates observed decadal solar variability well. This finding suggests that natural and/or anthropogenic variations in circulation patterns have influenced solar dimming and brightening to a higher degree in the north than in the rest of Europe.

Classification of summertime synoptic patterns in Beijing and their associations with boundary layer structure affecting aerosol pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Yucong; Guo, Jianping; Liu, Shuhua; Liu, Huan; Li, Zhanqing; Zhang, Wanchun; Zhai, Panmao

2017-02-01

Meteorological conditions within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) are closely governed by large-scale synoptic patterns and play important roles in air quality by directly and indirectly affecting the emission, transport, formation, and deposition of air pollutants. Partly due to the lack of long-term fine-resolution observations of the PBL, the relationships between synoptic patterns, PBL structure, and aerosol pollution in Beijing have not been well understood. This study applied the obliquely rotated principal component analysis in T-mode to classify the summertime synoptic conditions over Beijing using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis from 2011 to 2014, and investigated their relationships with PBL structure and aerosol pollution by combining numerical simulations, measurements of surface meteorological variables, fine-resolution soundings, the concentration of particles with diameters less than or equal to 2.5 µm, total cloud cover (CLD), and reanalysis data. Among the seven identified synoptic patterns, three types accounted for 67 % of the total number of cases studied and were associated with heavy aerosol pollution events. These particular synoptic patterns were characterized by high-pressure systems located to the east or southeast of Beijing at the 925 hPa level, which blocked the air flow seaward, and southerly PBL winds that brought in polluted air from the southern industrial zone. The horizontal transport of pollutants induced by the synoptic forcings may be the most important factor affecting the air quality of Beijing in summer. In the vertical dimension, these three synoptic patterns featured a relatively low boundary layer height (BLH) in the afternoon, accompanied by high CLD and southerly cold advection from the seas within the PBL. The high CLD reduced the solar radiation reaching the surface, and suppressed the thermal turbulence, leading to lower BLH. Besides, the numerical sensitive experiments show that cold advection induced by the large-scale synoptic forcing may have cooled the PBL, leading to an increase in near-surface stability and a decrease in the BLH in the afternoon. Moreover, when warm advection appeared simultaneously above the top level of the PBL, the thermal inversion layer capping the PBL may have been strengthened, resulting in the further suppression of PBL and thus the deterioration of aerosol pollution levels. This study has important implications for understanding the crucial roles that meteorological factors (at both synoptic and local scales) play in modulating and forecasting aerosol pollution in Beijing and its surrounding area.

A case study using kinematic quantities derived from a triangle of VHF Doppler wind profilers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, Catherine A.; Forbes, Gregory S.

1989-01-01

Horizontal divergence, relative vorticity, kinematic vertical velocity, and geostrophic and ageostrophic winds are computed from Colorado profiler network data to investigate an upslope snowstorm in northeastern Colorado. Horizontal divergence and relative vorticity are computed using the Gauss and Stokes theorems, respectively. Kinematic vertical velocities are obtained from the surface to 9 km by vertically integrating the continuity equation. The geostrophic and ageostrophic winds are computed by applying a finite differencing technique to evaluate the derivatives in the horizontal equations of motion. Comparison of the synoptic-scale data with the profiler network data reveals that the two datasets are generally consistent. Also, the profiler-derived quantities exhibit coherent vertical and temporal patterns consistent with conceptual and theoretical flow fields of various meteorological phenomena. It is suggested that the profiler-derived quantities are of potential use to weather forecasters in that they enable the dynamic and kinematic interpretation of weather system structure to be made and thus have nowcasting and short-term forecasting value.

Climate change and wildfire around southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kimura, K.

2013-12-01

When the climate change in southern Africa is analyzed, the effects of rainfall by Inter Tropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ) and cyclone are important. In this study, the rainfall patterns are analyzed with synoptic analysis. The southern limit of ITCZ is around the arid zone around Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. This zone has some effects of both ITCZ and extratropical cyclones by season. As well as this, the eastern part of this area has heavy rainfall by the cyclone from the Indian Ocean once in several years. In the other hand, a lot of wildfire occurs in this area. The main cause of the wildfire is anthropogenic misbehavior of the fire by the slash-and-burn agriculture. Recently we can find the wildfire detected with the satellite imagery like Terra/Aqua MODIS. We can compare the weather environment and the wildfire occurrence with Geographical Information System. We have tried making the fire weather index suitable for the southern African semi-arid area.

Synoptic typing: interdisciplinary application methods with three practical hydroclimatological examples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siegert, C. M.; Leathers, D. J.; Levia, D. F.

2017-05-01

Synoptic classification is a methodology that represents diverse atmospheric variables and allows researchers to relate large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns to regional- and small-scale terrestrial processes. Synoptic classification has often been applied to questions concerning the surface environment. However, full applicability has been under-utilized to date, especially in disciplines such as hydroclimatology, which are intimately linked to atmospheric inputs. This paper aims to (1) outline the development of a daily synoptic calendar for the Mid-Atlantic (USA), (2) define seasonal synoptic patterns occurring in the region, and (3) provide hydroclimatological examples whereby the cascading response of precipitation characteristics, soil moisture, and streamflow are explained by synoptic classification. Together, achievement of these objectives serves as a guide for development and use of a synoptic calendar for hydroclimatological studies. In total 22 unique synoptic types were identified, derived from a combination of 12 types occurring in the winter (DJF), 13 in spring (MAM), 9 in summer (JJA), and 11 in autumn (SON). This includes six low pressure systems, four high pressure systems, one cold front, three north/northwest flow regimes, three south/southwest flow regimes, and five weakly defined regimes. Pairwise comparisons indicated that 84.3 % had significantly different rainfall magnitudes, 86.4 % had different rainfall durations, and 84.7 % had different rainfall intensities. The largest precipitation-producing classifications were not restricted to low pressure systems, but rather to patterns with access to moisture sources from the Atlantic Ocean and easterly (on-shore) winds, which transport moisture inland. These same classifications resulted in comparable rates of soil moisture recharge and streamflow discharge, illustrating the applicability of synoptic classification for a range of hydroclimatological research objectives.

Assessing Climate Change Impacts for Military Installations in the Southwest United States During the Warm Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, C.

2013-05-01

Arid and semi-arid regions are experiencing some of the most adverse impacts of climate change with increased heat waves, droughts, and extreme weather. These events will likely exacerbate socioeconomic and political instabilities in regions where the United States has vital strategic interests and ongoing military operations. The Southwest U.S. is strategically important in that it houses some of the most spatially expansive and important military installations in the country. The majority of severe weather events in the Southwest occur in association with the North American monsoon system (NAMS), and current observational record has shown a 'wet gets wetter and dry gets drier' global monsoon precipitation trend. We seek to evaluate the warm season extreme weather projection in the Southwest U.S., and how the extremes can affect Department of Defense (DoD) military facilities in that region. A baseline methodology is being developed to select extreme warm season weather events based on historical sounding data and moisture surge observations from Gulf of California. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)-type high resolution simulations will be performed for the extreme events identified from Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations initiated from IPCC GCM and NCAR Reanalysis data in both climate control and climate change periods. The magnitude in extreme event changes will be analyzed, and the synoptic forcing patterns of the future severe thunderstorms will provide a guide line to assess if the military installations in the Southwest will become more or less susceptible to severe weather in the future.

Study of weather and thermal comfort influence on sport performance: prognostic analysis applied to Rio de Janeiro's city marathon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pallotta, M.; Herdies, D. L.; Gonçalves, L. G.

2013-05-01

There is nowadays a growing interest in the influence and impacts of weather and climate in human life. The weather conditions analysis shows the utility of this type of tool when applied in sports. These conditions act as a differential in strategy and training, especially for outdoor sports. This study had as aim objective develop weather forecast and thermal comfort evaluation targeted to sports, and hoped that the results can be used to the development of products and weather service in the Olympic Games 2016 in Rio de Janeiro City. The use of weather forecast applied to the sport showed to be efficient for the case of Rio de Janeiro City Marathon, especially due to the high spatial resolution. The WRF simulations for the three marathons studied showed good results for temperature, atmospheric pressure, and relative humidity. On the other hand, the forecast of the wind showed a pattern of overestimation of the real situation in all cases. It was concluded that the WRF model provides, in general, more representative simulations from 36 hours in advance, and with 18 hours of integration they were even better, describing efficiently the synoptic situation that would be found. A review of weather conditions and thermal comfort at specific points of the marathon route showed that there are significant differences between the stages of the marathon, which makes possible to plan the competition strategy under the thermal comfort. It was concluded that a relationship between a situation more thermally comfortable (uncomfortable) and the best (worst) time in Rio de Janeiro City Marathon

The Remote Sensing of Mineral Aerosols and their Impact on Phytoplankton Productivity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tindale, Neil W.

1997-01-01

The overall objective of this experiment was to test the iron hypothesis does the addition of iron to nutrient rich surface waters enhance productivity? Our specific objectives in this experiment included sampling and studying the marine aerosol size and type (which are related to chemical reactivity) during the PlumEx cruise to determine the importance of local (Galapagos Islands) versus long-range sources of atmospheric material. Detailed results of single particle analysis of our samples are being prepared for publication in two papers. We collect aerosol samples and they have been analyzed for trace metals and other elements. We are mapped aerosol distribution and the desert source areas around the Arabian Sea region. We did record a clear relationship between the aerosol radiance and synoptic weather patterns with distinct signals over the ocean northwest and southwest of Australia. While the interpretation was limited an aerosol climatology pattern was presented.

The implementation of an automated tracking algorithm for the track detection of migratory anticyclones affecting the Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatzaki, Maria; Flocas, Elena A.; Simmonds, Ian; Kouroutzoglou, John; Keay, Kevin; Rudeva, Irina

2013-04-01

Migratory cyclones and anticyclones mainly account for the short-term weather variations in extra-tropical regions. By contrast to cyclones that have drawn major scientific attention due to their direct link to active weather and precipitation, climatological studies on anticyclones are limited, even though they also are associated with extreme weather phenomena and play an important role in global and regional climate. This is especially true for the Mediterranean, a region particularly vulnerable to climate change, and the little research which has been done is essentially confined to the manual analysis of synoptic charts. For the construction of a comprehensive climatology of migratory anticyclonic systems in the Mediterranean using an objective methodology, the Melbourne University automatic tracking algorithm is applied, based to the ERA-Interim reanalysis mean sea level pressure database. The algorithm's reliability in accurately capturing the weather patterns and synoptic climatology of the transient activity has been widely proven. This algorithm has been extensively applied for cyclone studies worldwide and it has been also successfully applied for the Mediterranean, though its use for anticyclone tracking is limited to the Southern Hemisphere. In this study the performance of the tracking algorithm under different data resolutions and different choices of parameter settings in the scheme is examined. Our focus is on the appropriate modification of the algorithm in order to efficiently capture the individual characteristics of the anticyclonic tracks in the Mediterranean, a closed basin with complex topography. We show that the number of the detected anticyclonic centers and the resulting tracks largely depend upon the data resolution and the search radius. We also find that different scale anticyclones and secondary centers that lie within larger anticyclone structures can be adequately represented; this is important, since the extensions of major anticyclonic systems affect the Mediterranean basin throughout the year. Acknowledgement: This research project is implemented within the framework of the Action «Supporting Postdoctoral Researchers» of the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" (Action's Beneficiary: General Secretariat for Research and Technology), and is co-financed by the European Social Fund (ESF) and the Greek State. Some funding from the Australian Research Council is also acknowledged.

An Investigation of Topography Modulated Low Level Moisture Convergence Patterns in the Southern Appalachians Using WRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, A. M.; Duan, Y.; Barros, A.

2015-12-01

The Southern Appalachian Mountains (SAM) region is a biodiversity hot-spot that is vulnerable to land use/land cover changes due to its proximity to the rapidly growing population in the Southeast U.S. Persistent near surface moisture and associated microclimates observed in this region have been documented since the colonization of the area. The landform in this area, in particular in the inner mountain region, is highly complex with nested valleys and ridges. The geometry of the terrain causes distinct diurnal and seasonal local flow patterns that result in highly complex interactions of this low level moisture with meso- and synoptic-scale cyclones passing through the region. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) was used to conduct high resolution simulations of several case studies of warm season precipitation in the SAM with different synoptic-scale conditions to investigate this interaction between local and larger-scale flow patterns. The aim is to elucidate the microphysical interactions among these shallow orographic clouds and preexisting precipitating cloud systems and identify uncertainties in the model microphysics using in situ measurements. Findings show that ridge-valley precipitation gradients, in particular the "reverse" to the classical orographic effect observed in inner mountain valleys, is linked to horizontal heterogeneity in the vertical structure of low level cloud and precipitation promoted through landform controls on local flow. Moisture convergence patterns follow the peaks and valleys as represented by WRF terrain, and the topography effectively controls their timing and spatial structure. The simulations support the hypothesis that ridge-valley precipitation gradients, and in particular the reverse orographic enhancement effect in inner mountain valleys, is linked to horizontal heterogeneity in the vertical structure of low level clouds and precipitation promoted through landform controls on moisture convergence.

Synoptic characteristics of dust over the southwest of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katiraie-Boroujerdy, P.; Ghahri, F.; Ranjbar Saadatabadi, A.

2012-12-01

Iran is frequently affected by dust events because it is located in arid and semiarid belt of the world. As Khozestan province is in the vicinity of large deserts and also due to especial atmospheric conditions the frequency of dust in this area is increased in the recent years. Therefore it has the destructive affect on the healthcare, economy, social and etc. The study is based on the, sea level, 850 mb and 500 mb weather charts, surface wind field and observations weather data during the period of 1968-2008. By numerical simulation with WRF modeling it has tried to high light provide an answer to how this event produced and reached to Ahwaz. It has been shown in this 40 years, dust events by high strength and frequency occur in July in Ahwaz. Synoptic patterns revealed that for making sever dust event Persian Gulf thermal trough extends to the north west of Iraq and European ridge extends over the Black sea and large part of the Turkey by passing waves of middle level Mediterranean trough from northwest of Iraq and east of Syria. Numerical simulation shows strong surface flow over source regions in northwest of Iraq and east of Syria, creation westerly low level jet in low-lying areas and the increase in friction velocity in the source regions. In the deserts of Iraq and north east of Syria increase in friction velocity to its highest value (approx 0.6 m/s) causes reduction in visibility and by decrease to lowest value (approx 0.4 m/s) visibility reaches up to 600 meters in Ahwaz.

A Regional Model Study of Synoptic Features Over West Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Saloum, Mahaman; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Synoptic weather features over West Africa were studied in simulations by the regional simulation model (RM) at the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies. These pioneering simulations represent the beginning of an effort to adapt regional models for weather and climate prediction over West Africa. The RM uses a cartesian grid with 50 km horizontal resolution and fifteen vertical levels. An ensemble of four simulations was forced with lateral boundary conditions from ECMWF global analyses for the period 8-22 August 1988. The simulated mid-tropospheric circulation includes the skillful development and movement of several African wave disturbances. Wavelet analysis of mid-tropospheric winds detected a dominant periodicity of about 4 days and a secondary periodicity of 5-8 days. Spatial distributions of RM precipitation and precipitation time series were validated against daily rain gauge measurements and ISCCP satellite infrared cloud imagery. The time-space distribution of simulated precipitation was made more realistic by combining the ECMWR initial conditions with a 24-hr spin-up of the moisture field and also by damping high frequency gravity waves by dynamic initialization. Model precipitation "forecasts" over the Central Sahel were correlated with observations for about three days, but reinitializing with observed data on day 5 resulted in a dramatic improvement in the precipitation validation over the remaining 9 days. Results imply that information via the lateral boundary conditions is not always sufficient to minimize departures between simulated and actual precipitation patterns for more than several days. In addition, there was some evidence that the new initialization may increase the simulations' sensitivity to the quality of lateral boundary conditions.

Atmospheric conditions associated with extreme fire activity in the Western Mediterranean region.

PubMed

Amraoui, Malik; Pereira, Mário G; DaCamara, Carlos C; Calado, Teresa J

2015-08-15

Active fire information provided by TERRA and AQUA instruments on-board sun-synchronous polar MODIS platform is used to describe fire activity in the Western Mediterranean and to identify and characterize the synoptic patterns of several meteorological fields associated with the occurrence of extreme fire activity episodes (EEs). The spatial distribution of the fire pixels during the period of 2003-2012 leads to the identification of two most affected sub-regions, namely the Northern and Western parts of the Iberian Peninsula (NWIP) and Northern Africa (NAFR). The temporal distribution of the fire pixels in these two sub-regions is characterized by: (i) high and non-concurrent inter- and intra-annual variability with maximum values during the summer of 2003 and 2005 in NWIP and 2007 and 2012 in NAFR; and, (ii) high intra-annual variability dominated by a prominent annual cycle with a main peak centred in August in both sub-regions and a less pronounced secondary peak in March only evident in NWIP region. The 34 EEs identified were grouped according to the location, period of occurrence and spatial configuration of the associated synoptic patterns into 3 clusters (NWIP-summer, NWIP-winter and NAFR-summer). Results from the composite analysis reveal similar fire weather conditions (statistically significant positive anomalies of air temperature and negative anomalies of air relative humidity) but associated with different circulation patterns at lower and mid-levels of the atmosphere associated with the occurrence of EEs in each cluster of the Western Mediterranean region. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Discrimination of tornadic and non-tornadic severe weather outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercer, Andrew Edward

Outbreaks of severe weather affect the majority of the conterminous United States. An outbreak is characterized by multiple severe weather occurrences within a single synoptic system. Outbreaks can be categorized by whether or not they produce tornadoes. It is hypothesized that the antecedent synoptic signal contains important information about outbreak type. Accordingly, the scope of this research is to determine the extent that the synoptic signal can be utilized to classify outbreak type at various lead times. Outbreak types are classified using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, which are arranged on a global 2.5° latitude-longitude grid, include 17 vertical pressure levels, and span from 1948 to the present (2008). Fifty major tornado outbreak (TO) cases and fifty major non-tornadic severe weather outbreak (NTO) cases are selected for this work. Two types of analyses are performed on these cases to assess discrimination ability. One analysis involves outbreak classification using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialized with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset. Meteorological covariates are computed from the WRF output and used in training and testing of statistical classification models. The covariate fields are depicted on a 21 X 21 gridpoint field with an 18 km grid spacing centered on the outbreak. Covariates with large discrimination potential are determined using permutation testing. A P-mode principal component analysis (PCA) is used on the subset of covariates determined by permutation testing to reduce data dimensionality, since numerous redundancies exist in the initial covariate set. Three statistical classification models are trained and tested with the resulting PC scores: a support vector machine (SVM), a logistic regression model (LogR), and a multiple linear regression model (LR). Promising results emerge from these methods, as a probability of detection (POD) of 0.89 and a false alarm ratio (FAR) of 0.13 are obtained from the best discriminating statistical technique (SVM) at 24-hours lead time. Results degrade only slightly by 72-hours lead time (maximum POD of 0.833 and minimum FAR of 0.276). Synoptic composites of the outbreak types are the second analysis considered. Composites are used to reveal synoptic features of outbreak types, which can be utilized to diagnose the differences between classes (in this case, TOs and NTOs). The composites are created using PCA. Five raw variables, height, temperature, relative humidity, and u and v wind components, are extracted from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for North America. Converging longitude lines with increasing latitude on the reanalysis grid introduce bias into correlation calculations in higher latitudes; hence, the data are mapped onto both a latitudinal density grid and a Fibonacci grid. The resulting PCA produces two significant principal components (PCs), and a cluster analysis on these PCs for each outbreak type results in two types of TOs and NTOs. TO composites are characterized by a trough of low pressure over the central United States and major quasigeostrophic forcing features such as an upper level jet streak, cyclonic vorticity advection increasing with height, and warm air advection. These dynamics result in a strong surface cyclone in most tornado outbreaks. These features are considerably less pronounced in NTOs. The statistical analyses presented herein were successful in classifying outbreak types at various lead times, using synoptic scale data as input.

More frequent showers and thunderstorms under a warming climate: evidence observed in Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, H.; Fetzer, E. J.; Wong, S.; Lambrigtsen, B.; Wang, T.; Chen, L. L.; Von, D.

2015-12-01

This study uses historical records of synoptic observations over northern Eurasia to examine changing frequency of precipitation associated with large synoptic events versus convective and thunderstorm activities. We found days associated with showers and precipitation accompanied by thunderstorms have been increasing in general during the study period of 1966-2000 while the total wet day frequency has been decreasing in all seasons. This study suggests increasing convective and severe weather-related precipitation events may be a significant contributor to higher intensity and more extreme precipitation under a warming climate.

Snowfall in the Northwest Iberian Peninsula: Synoptic Circulation Patterns and Their Influence on Snow Day Trends

PubMed Central

Merino, Andrés; Fernández, Sergio; Hermida, Lucía; López, Laura; Sánchez, José Luis; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Gascón, Estíbaliz

2014-01-01

In recent decades, a decrease in snowfall attributed to the effects of global warming (among other causes) has become evident. However, it is reasonable to investigate meteorological causes for such decrease, by analyzing changes in synoptic scale patterns. On the Iberian Peninsula, the Castilla y León region in the northwest consists of a central plateau surrounded by mountain ranges. This creates snowfalls that are considered both an important water resource and a transportation risk. In this work, we develop a classification of synoptic situations that produced important snowfalls at observation stations in the major cities of Castilla y León from 1960 to 2011. We used principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster techniques to define four synoptic patterns conducive to snowfall in the region. Once we confirmed homogeneity of the series and serial correlation of the snowfallday records at the stations from 1960 to 2011, we carried out a Mann-Kendall test. The results show a negative trend at most stations, so there are a decreased number of snowfall days. Finally, variations in these meteorological variables were related to changes in the frequencies of snow events belonging to each synoptic pattern favorable for snowfall production at the observatory locations. PMID:25152912

Association of weather and air pollution interactions on daily mortality in 12 Canadian cities.

PubMed

Vanos, J K; Cakmak, S; Kalkstein, L S; Yagouti, Abderrahmane

It has been well established that both meteorological attributes and air pollution concentrations affect human health outcomes. We examined all cause nonaccident mortality relationships for 28 years (1981-2008) in relation to air pollution and synoptic weather type (encompassing air mass) data in 12 Canadian cities. This study first determines the likelihood of summertime extreme air pollution events within weather types using spatial synoptic classification. Second, it examines the modifying effect of weather types on the relative risk of mortality (RR) due to daily concentrations of air pollution (nitrogen dioxide, ozone, sulfur dioxide, and particulate matter <2.5 μm). We assess both single- and two-pollutant interactions to determine dependent and independent pollutant effects using the relatively new time series technique of distributed lag nonlinear modeling (DLNM). Results display dry tropical (DT) and moist tropical plus (MT+) weathers to result in a fourfold and twofold increased likelihood, respectively, of an extreme pollution event (top 5 % of pollution concentrations throughout the 28 years) occurring. We also demonstrate statistically significant effects of single-pollutant exposure on mortality ( p  < 0.05) to be dependent on summer weather type, where stronger results occur in dry moderate (fair weather) and DT or MT+ weather types. The overall average single-effect RR increases due to pollutant exposure within DT and MT+ weather types are 14.9 and 11.9 %, respectively. Adjusted exposures (two-way pollutant effect estimates) generally results in decreased RR estimates, indicating that the pollutants are not independent. Adjusting for ozone significantly lowers 67 % of the single-pollutant RR estimates and reduces model variability, which demonstrates that ozone significantly controls a portion of the mortality signal from the model. Our findings demonstrate the mortality risks of air pollution exposure to differ by weather type, with increased accuracy obtained when accounting for interactive effects through adjustment for dependent pollutants using a DLNM.

Surface temperature patterns in complex terrain: Daily variations and long-term change in the central Sierra Nevada, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lundquist, J.D.; Cayan, D.R.

2007-01-01

A realistic description of how temperatures vary with elevation is crucial for ecosystem studies and for models of basin-scale snowmelt and spring streamflow. This paper explores surface temperature variability using temperature data from an array of 37 sensors, called the Yosemite network, which traverses both slopes of the Sierra Nevada in the vicinity of Yosemite National Park, California. These data indicate that a simple lapse rate is often a poor description of the spatial temperature structure. Rather, the spatial pattern of temperature over the Yosemite network varies considerably with synoptic conditions. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) were used to identify the dominant spatial temperature patterns and how they vary in time. Temporal variations of these surface temperature patterns were correlated with large-scale weather conditions, as described by National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis data. Regression equations were used to downscale larger-scale weather parameters, such as Reanalysis winds and pressure, to the surface temperature structure over the Yosemite network. These relationships demonstrate that strong westerly winds are associated with relatively warmer temperatures on the east slope and cooler temperatures on the west slope of the Sierra, and weaker westerly winds are associated with the opposite pattern. Reanalysis data from 1948 to 2005 indicate weakening westerlies over this time period, a trend leading to relatively cooler temperatures on the east slope over decadal timescale's. This trend also appears in long-term observations and demonstrates the need to consider topographic effects when examining long-term changes in mountain regions. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Large-Scale, Synoptic-Period Weather Systems in Mars' Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, M.

2013-10-01

During late autumn through early spring, extratropical regions on Mars exhibit profound mean zonal equator-to-pole thermal contrasts associated with its waxing and waning seasonal polar ice caps. The imposition of this strong meridional temperature gradient supports intense eastward-traveling, synoptic-period weather systems (i.e., transient baroclinic/barotropic waves) within Mars' extratropical atmosphere. These disturbances grow, mature and decay within the east-west varying seasonal-mean middle and high-latitude westerly jet stream (i.e., the polar vortex) on the planet. Near the surface, such weather disturbances indicated distinctive, spiraling "comma"-shaped dust cloud structures of large scale, and scimitar-shaped dust fronts, indicative of processes associated with cyclo- and fronto-genesis. The weather systems are most intense during specific seasons on Mars, and in both hemispheres. The northern hemisphere (NH) disturbances appear to be significantly more vigorous than their counterparts in the southern hemisphere (SH). Further, the NH weather systems and accompanying frontal waves appear to have significant impacts on the transport of tracer fields (e.g., particularly dust and to some extent water species (vapor/ice) as well). Regarding dust, frontal waves appear to be key agents in the lifting, lofting, organization and transport of this atmospheric aerosol. A brief background and supporting observations of Mars' extratropical weather systems is presented. This is followed by various modeling studies (i.e., ranging from highly simplified, mechanistic and fully complex global circulation modeling investigations) that we are pursuing. In particular, transport of scalar quantities (e.g., tracers and high-order dynamically revealing diagnostic fields) are investigated. A discussion of outstanding issues and future modeling pursuits is offered related to Mars' extratropical traveling weather systems.

Dynamical ocean-atmospheric drivers of floods and droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Hall, Julia

2014-05-01

The present study contributes to a better depiction and understanding of the "facial expression" of the Earth in terms of dynamical ocean-atmospheric processes associated to both floods and droughts. For this purpose, the study focuses on nonlinear dynamical and statistical analysis of ocean-atmospheric mechanisms contributing to hydrological extremes, broadening the analytical hydro-meteorological perspective of floods and hydrological droughts to driving mechanisms and feedbacks at the global scale. In doing so, the analysis of the climate-related causality of hydrological extremes is not limited to the synoptic situation in the region where the events take place. Rather, it goes further in the train of causality, peering into dynamical interactions between planetary-scale ocean and atmospheric processes that drive weather regimes and influence the antecedent and event conditions associated to hydrological extremes. In order to illustrate the approach, dynamical ocean-atmospheric drivers are investigated for a selection of floods and droughts. Despite occurring in different regions with different timings, common underlying mechanisms are identified for both kinds of hydrological extremes. For instance, several analysed events are seen to have resulted from a large-scale atmospheric situation consisting on standing planetary waves encircling the northern hemisphere. These correspond to wider vortices locked in phase, resulting in wider and more persistent synoptic weather patterns, i.e. with larger spatial and temporal coherence. A standing train of anticyclones and depressions thus encircled the mid and upper latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The stationary regime of planetary waves occurs when the mean eastward zonal flow decreases up to a point in which it no longer exceeds the westward phase propagation of the Rossby waves produced by the latitude-varying Coriolis effect. The ocean-atmospheric causes for this behaviour and consequences on hydrological extremes are investigated and the findings supported with spatiotemporal geostatistical analysis and nonlinear geophysical models. Overall, the study provides a three-fold contribution to the research on hydrological extremes: Firstly, it improves their physical attribution by better understanding the dynamical reasons behind the meteorological drivers. Secondly, it brings out fundamental early warning signs for potential hydrological extremes, by bringing out global ocean-atmospheric features that manifest themselves much earlier than the regional weather patterns. Thirdly, it provides tools for addressing and understanding hydrological regime changes at wider spatiotemporal scales, by providing links to planetary-scale dynamical processes that play a crucial role in multi-decadal global climate variability.

Atmospheric circulation feedback on west Asian dust and Indian monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaskaoutis, Dimitris; Houssos, Elias; Gautam, Ritesh; Singh, Ramesh; Rashki, Alireza; Dumka, Umesh

2016-04-01

Classification of the atmospheric circulation patterns associated with high aerosol loading events over the Ganges valley, via the synergy of Factor and Cluster analysis techniques, has indicated six different synoptic weather patterns, two of which mostly occur during late pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons (May to September). The current study focuses on examining these two specific clusters that are associated with different mean sea level pressure (MSLP), geopotential height at 700 hPa (Z700) and wind fields that seem to affect the aerosol (mostly dust) emissions and precipitation distribution over the Indian sub-continent. Furthermore, the study reveals that enhanced aerosol presence over the Arabian Sea is positively associated with increased rainfall over the Indian landmass. The increased dust over the Arabian Sea and rainfall over India are associated with deepening of the northwestern Indian and Arabian lows that increase thermal convection and convergence of humid air masses into Indian landmass, resulting in larger monsoon precipitation. For this cluster, negative MSLP and Z700 anomalies are observed over the Arabian Peninsula that enhance the dust outflow from Arabia and, concurrently, the southwesterly air flow resulting in increase in monsoon precipitation over India. The daily precipitation over India is found to be positively correlated with the aerosol loading over the Arabian Sea for both weather clusters, thus verifying recent results from satellite observations and model simulations concerning the modulation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall by the Arabian dust. The present work reveals that in addition to the radiative impacts of dust on modulating the monsoon rainfall, differing weather patterns favor changes in dust emissions, accumulation as well as rainfall distribution over south Asia.

Future Changes in Autumn Flood Type and Frequency in Pacific Northwest North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menounos, B.; Cannon, A. J.; Radic, V.; Moore, R. D.; Dery, S. J.; Jackson, P. L.; Anslow, F. S.

2013-12-01

During the 20th and early 21st century, autumn storms in the Pacific Northwest of North America - PNWNA (coastal British Columbia and Washington) caused widespread flooding and landslides. Understanding how these intense storms are likely to change in the future is important given their potential to harm people and cause widespread damage, but assessing these changes using climate models is difficult. Parameterization of precipitation in general circulation and regional climate models (GCM, RCM) is prone to error, especially in the mountainous terrain of the PNWNA. High computational demands of RCMs also limits their use in assessing changes in flood type and frequency for a suite of GCM and emission scenarios. We instead focus our efforts on understanding atmospheric circulation patterns responsible for historical autumn flooding (15 August - 31 December) and examine how these synoptic conditions are likely to change under future emission scenarios. Our analysis includes identification of extreme events (runoff and precipitation) in streamflow and precipitation records from coastal Washington and British Columbia for the period 1948-2010. Our methods to link the instrumental record of extreme autumn events to atmospheric conditions (500 and 850 hPa geopotential height and integrated vapor transport obtained from NCEP and CFSR reanalysis) include: (1) compositing of streamflow and precipitation events (environment-to-circulation); (2) self organizing map synoptic classification (circulation-to-environment); and (3) regression tree synoptic classification (hybrid of environment-to-circulation and circulation-to-environment). We then evaluate changes in flood-generating synoptic types in the CMIP5 ensemble over the period 2010-2100. Our analysis indicates that, as expected, most floods are associated with atmospheric river events that are commonly associated with upper level, quasi stationary low- and high-pressure systems respectively located in the Gulf of Alaska and east of the PNWNA. Based on our initial analysis of the CMIP5 data, we note an increase in autumn flood-producing synoptic weather types for the PNWNA. We discuss the implications of increased autumn flooding to communities and infrastructure.

A preliminary look at AVE-SESAME 2 conducted on 19-20 April 1979

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, S. F.; Horvath, N.; Turner, R. E.

1980-01-01

Preliminary information on data collected, synoptic conditions, and severe and unusual weather reported during the AVE-SESAME 2 period is presented. The information provides researchers a preliminary look at conditions during the AVE-SESAME 2 period.

Weather features associated with aircraft icing conditions: a case study.

PubMed

Fernández-González, Sergio; Sánchez, José Luis; Gascón, Estíbaliz; López, Laura; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Merino, Andrés

2014-01-01

In the context of aviation weather hazards, the study of aircraft icing is very important because of several accidents attributed to it over recent decades. On February 1, 2012, an unusual meteorological situation caused severe icing of a C-212-200, an aircraft used during winter 2011-2012 to study winter cloud systems in the Guadarrama Mountains of the central Iberian Peninsula. Observations in this case were from a MP-3000A microwave radiometric profiler, which acquired atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles continuously every 2.5 minutes. A Cloud Aerosol and Precipitation Spectrometer (CAPS) was also used to study cloud hydrometeors. Finally, ice nuclei concentration was measured in an isothermal cloud chamber, with the goal of calculating concentrations in the study area. Synoptic and mesoscale meteorological conditions were analysed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It was demonstrated that topography influenced generation of a mesolow and gravity waves on the lee side of the orographic barrier, in the region where the aircraft experienced icing. Other factors such as moisture, wind direction, temperature, atmospheric stability, and wind shear were decisive in the appearance of icing. This study indicates that icing conditions may arise locally, even when the synoptic situation does not indicate any risk.

Analysis of mesoscale factors at the onset of deep convection on hailstorm days in Southern France and their relation to the synoptic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, Jose Luis; Wu, Xueke; Gascón, Estibaliz; López, Laura; Melcón, Pablo; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Berthet, Claude; Dessens, Jean; Merino, Andrés

2013-04-01

Storms and the weather phenomena associated to intense precipitation, lightning, strong winds or hail, are among the most common and dangerous weather risks in many European countries. To get a reliable forecast of their occurrence is remaining an open problem. The question is: how is possible to improve the reliability of forecast? Southwestern France is frequently affected by hailstorms, producing severe damages on crops and properties. Considerable efforts were made to improve the forecast of hailfall in this area. First of all, if we want to improve this type of forecast, it is necessary to have a good "ground truth" of the hail days and zones affected by hailfall. Fortunately, ANELFA has deployed thousands of hailpad stations in Southern France. The ANELFA processed the point hailfall data recorded during each hail season at these stations. The focus of this paper presents a methodology to improve the forecast of the occurrence of hailfall according to the synoptic environment and mesoscale factors in the study area. One hundred of hail days were selected, following spatial and severity criteria, occurred in the period 2000-2010. The mesoscale model WRF was applied for all cases to study the synoptic environment of mean geopotential and temperature fields at 500 hPa. Three nested domains have been defined following a two-way nesting strategy, with a horizontal spatial resolution of 36, 12 and 4 km, and 30 vertical terrains— following σ-levels. Then, using the Principal Component Analysis in T-Mode, 4 mesoscale configurations were defined for the fields of convective instability (CI), water vapor flux divergence and wind flow and humidity at low layer (850hPa), and several clusters were classified followed by using the K-means Clustering. Finally, we calculated several characteristic values of four hail forecast parameters: Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Storm Relative Helicity between 0 and 3 km (SRH0-3), Energy-Helicity Index (EHI) and Showalter Index (SI) provided by WRF simulations for each hail grid point, which is very conducive to predicting the occurrence of hail in each one of the mesoscale configurations. This mesoscale analysis and its relation to the synoptic anomalies is discussed and the contribution to improve the numerical model applied to the forecast of hailfall in this area. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by the Plan Nacional de I+D of Spain, through the grants CGL2010-15930, Micrometeo IPT-310000-2010-022 and the Junta de Castilla y León through the grant LE220A11-2

Convective scale weather analysis and forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Purdom, J. F. W.

1984-01-01

How satellite data can be used to improve insight into the mesoscale behavior of the atmosphere is demonstrated with emphasis on the GOES-VAS sounding and image data. This geostationary satellite has the unique ability to observe frequently the atmosphere (sounders) and its cloud cover (visible and infrared) from the synoptic scale down to the cloud scale. These uniformly calibrated data sets can be combined with conventional data to reveal many of the features important in mesoscale weather development and evolution.

Validation of the Kp Geomagnetic Index Forecast at CCMC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frechette, B. P.; Mays, M. L.

2017-12-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) Space Weather Research Center (SWRC) sub-team provides space weather services to NASA robotic mission operators and science campaigns and prototypes new models, forecasting techniques, and procedures. The Kp index is a measure of geomagnetic disturbances for space weather in the magnetosphere such as geomagnetic storms and substorms. In this study, we performed validation on the Newell et al. (2007) Kp prediction equation from December 2010 to July 2017. The purpose of this research is to understand the Kp forecast performance because it's critical for NASA missions to have confidence in the space weather forecast. This research was done by computing the Kp error for each forecast (average, minimum, maximum) and each synoptic period. Then to quantify forecast performance we computed the mean error, mean absolute error, root mean square error, multiplicative bias and correlation coefficient. A contingency table was made for each forecast and skill scores were computed. The results are compared to the perfect score and reference forecast skill score. In conclusion, the skill score and error results show that the minimum of the predicted Kp over each synoptic period from the Newell et al. (2007) Kp prediction equation performed better than the maximum or average of the prediction. However, persistence (reference forecast) outperformed all of the Kp forecasts (minimum, maximum, and average). Overall, the Newell Kp prediction still predicts within a range of 1, even though persistence beats it.

Large Scale Meteorological Pattern of Extreme Rainfall in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuswanto, Heri; Grotjahn, Richard; Rachmi, Arinda; Suhermi, Novri; Oktania, Erma; Wijaya, Yosep

2014-05-01

Extreme Weather Events (EWEs) cause negative impacts socially, economically, and environmentally. Considering these facts, forecasting EWEs is crucial work. Indonesia has been identified as being among the countries most vulnerable to the risk of natural disasters, such as floods, heat waves, and droughts. Current forecasting of extreme events in Indonesia is carried out by interpreting synoptic maps for several fields without taking into account the link between the observed events in the 'target' area with remote conditions. This situation may cause misidentification of the event leading to an inaccurate prediction. Grotjahn and Faure (2008) compute composite maps from extreme events (including heat waves and intense rainfall) to help forecasters identify such events in model output. The composite maps show large scale meteorological patterns (LSMP) that occurred during historical EWEs. Some vital information about the EWEs can be acquired from studying such maps, in addition to providing forecaster guidance. Such maps have robust mid-latitude meteorological patterns (for Sacramento and California Central Valley, USA EWEs). We study the performance of the composite approach for tropical weather condition such as Indonesia. Initially, the composite maps are developed to identify and forecast the extreme weather events in Indramayu district- West Java, the main producer of rice in Indonesia and contributes to about 60% of the national total rice production. Studying extreme weather events happening in Indramayu is important since EWEs there affect national agricultural and fisheries activities. During a recent EWE more than a thousand houses in Indramayu suffered from serious flooding with each home more than one meter underwater. The flood also destroyed a thousand hectares of rice plantings in 5 regencies. Identifying the dates of extreme events is one of the most important steps and has to be carried out carefully. An approach has been applied to identify the dates involving observations from multiple sites (rain gauges). The approach combines the POT (Peaks Over Threshold) with 'declustering' of the data to approximate independence based on the autocorrelation structure of each rainfall series. The cross correlation among sites is considered also to develop the event's criteria yielding a rational choice of the extreme dates given the 'spotty' nature of the intense convection. Based on the identified dates, we are developing a supporting tool for forecasting extreme rainfall based on the corresponding large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The LSMPs methodology focuses on the larger-scale patterns that the model are better able to forecast, as those larger-scale patterns create the conditions fostering the local EWE. Bootstrap resampling method is applied to highlight the key features that statistically significant with the extreme events. Grotjahn, R., and G. Faure. 2008: Composite Predictor Maps of Extraordinary Weather Events in the Sacramento California Region. Weather and Forecasting. 23: 313-335.

A Synoptic- and Planetary-Scale Analysis of Widespread North American Ice Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCray, C.; Gyakum, J. R.; Atallah, E.

2017-12-01

Freezing rain can have devastating impacts, particularly when it persists for many hours. Predicting the precise temperature stratification necessary for long duration freezing rain events remains an important forecast challenge. To better elucidate the conditions responsible for the most severe events, we concentrate on surface observations of long-duration (6 or more hours) freezing rain events over North America from 1979-2016. Furthermore, we analyze cases in which multiple stations observe long-duration events simultaneously. Following these cases over successive days allows us to generate maps of freezing rain "tracks." We then categorize recurring geographic patterns to examine the meteorological conditions leading to these events. While freezing rain is most frequently observed in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada, long-duration events have affected areas as far south as the Gulf Coast. Notably, a disproportionately large number of very long duration (18 or more hours) events have occurred in the Southern Plains states relative to the climatological annual frequency of freezing rain there. Classification of individual cases shows that most of these very long duration events are associated with a recurring pattern which produces freezing rain along a southwest-northeast swath from Texas/Oklahoma into the northeastern U.S. and eastern Canada. Storms classified within this pattern include the January 1998 and December 2013 ice storms. While this pattern is the most widespread, additional spatially extensive patterns occur. One of these areas extends from the Southern Plains eastward along the Gulf Coast to Georgia and the Carolinas. A third category of events extends from the Upper Midwest into the northeastern U.S. and southeastern Canada. The expansive areal extent and long duration of these events make them especially problematic. An analysis of the planetary- to synoptic-scale settings responsible for these cases and the differences among individual storms is performed to provide forecasters with additional tools/insight towards the prediction of these damaging weather events.

Edited synoptic cloud reports from ships and land stations over the globe, 1982--1991

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hahn, C.J.; Warren, S.G.; London, J.

1996-02-01

Surface synoptic weather reports for the entire globe for the 10-year period from December 1981 through November 1991 have been processed, edited, and rewritten to provide a data set designed for use in cloud analyses. The information in these reports relating to clouds, including the present weather information, was extracted and put through a series of quality control checks. Correctable inconsistencies within reports were edited for consistency, so that the ``edited cloud report`` can be used for cloud analysis. Cases of ``sky obscured`` were interpreted by reference to the present weather code as to whether they indicated fog, rain ormore » snow and were given appropriate cloud type designations. Nimbostratus clouds were also given a special designation. Changes made to an original report are indicated in the edited report so that the original report can be reconstructed if desired. While low cloud amount is normally given directly in the synoptic report, the edited cloud report also includes the amounts, either directly reported or inferred, of middle and high clouds, both the non-overlapped amounts and the ``actual`` amounts. Since illumination from the moon is important for the adequate detection of clouds at night, both the relative lunar illuminance and the solar altitude are given; well as a parameter that indicates whether our recommended illuminance criterion was satisfied. This data set contains 124 million reports from land stations and 15 million reports from ships. Each report is 56 characters in length. The archive consists of 240 files, one file for each month of data for land and ocean separately. With this data set a user can develop a climatology for any particular cloud type or group of types, for any geographical region and any spatial and temporal resolution desired.« less

Atmospheric rivers causing high accumulation storms in East Antarctica: regional climate model evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazzara, M. A.; Tsukernik, M.; Gorodetskaya, I.

2016-12-01

Recent studies confirmed that atmospheric rivers (ARs) reach the continent of Antarctica and thus influence the Antarctic accumulation patterns and the ice sheet mass balance (Gorodetskaya et al. 2014, GRL). Similar to mid-latitude ARs, Antarctic ARs are associated with a blocking pattern downstream of a cyclone, which allows channeling of moisture toward the continent. However, due to the extremely cold atmosphere, Antarctic ARs possess some unique features. First, the existence of an AR in high latitudes is always associated with warm advection. Second, in order for an AR to penetrate the continent, it needs to overcome strong low-level outflow winds - katabatic winds - coming from the interior of the continent. Thirdly, sea ice surrounding the Antarctic ice sheet introduces an additional "cold barrier" decreasing the tropospheric moisture holding capacity and promoting precipitation before reaching the ice sheet. We believe these factors contribute to the scarcity of AR events influencing the ice sheet surface mass balance. Nevertheless, their presence is clearly seen in the long-term record. In particular, anomalous accumulation in 2009 and 2011 in Dronning Maud Land in East Antarctica has been linked to atmospheric rivers. We performed a detailed investigation of several AR storm events from 2009 and 2011 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations. These simulations depicted the synoptic scale development of storms that led to an anomalous precipitation pattern in the East Antarctic. We investigated the role of the upper level vs. lower level forcing in the formation of the contributing storms. The moisture and temperature anomalies of each case are evaluated in the context of synoptic and large-scale atmospheric forcing. We also performed sensitivity studies to determine the role of sea ice in the development of these systems.

On the nature of rainfall in dry climate: Space-time patterns of convective rain cells over the Dead Sea region and their relations with synoptic state and flash flood generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belachsen, Idit; Marra, Francesco; Peleg, Nadav; Morin, Efrat

2017-04-01

Space-time patterns of rainfall are important climatic characteristics that influence runoff generation and flash flood magnitude. Their derivation requires high-resolution measurements to adequately represent the rainfall distribution, and is best provided by remote sensing tools. This need is further emphasized in dry climate regions, where rainfall is scarce and, often, local and highly variable. Our research is focused on understanding the nature of rainfall events in the dry Dead Sea region (Eastern Mediterranean) by identifying and characterizing the spatial structure and the dynamics of convective storm cores (known as rain cells). To do so, we take advantage of 25 years of corrected and gauge-adjusted weather radar data. A statistical analysis of convective rain-cells spatial and temporal characteristics was performed with respect to synoptic pattern, geographical location, and flash flood generation. Rain cells were extracted from radar data using a cell segmentation method and a tracking algorithm and were divided into rain events. A total of 10,500 rain cells, 2650 cell tracks and 424 rain events were elicited. Rain cell properties, such as mean areal and maximal rain intensity, area, life span, direction and speed, were derived. Rain events were clustered, according to several ERA-Interim atmospheric parameters, and associated with three main synoptic patterns: Cyprus Low, Low to the East of the study region and Active Red Sea Trough. The first two originate from the Mediterranean Sea, while the third is an extension of the African monsoon. On average, the convective rain cells in the region are 90 km2 in size, moving from West to East in 13 ms-1 and living 18 minutes. Several significant differences between rain cells of the various synoptic types were observed. In particular, Active Red Sea Trough rain cells are characterized by higher rain intensities and lower speeds, suggesting a higher flooding potential for small catchments. The north-south negative gradient of mean annual rainfall in the study region was found to be negatively correlated with rain cells intensity and positively correlated with rain cells area. Additional analysis was done for convective rain cells over two nearby catchments located in the central part of the study region, by ascribing some of the rain events to observed flash-flood events. It was found that rain events associated with flash-floods have higher maximal rain cell intensity and lower minimal cell speed than rain events that did not lead to a flash-flood in the watersheds. This information contributes to our understanding of rain patterns over the dry area of the Dead Sea and their connection to flash-floods. The statistical distributions of rain cells properties can be used for high space-time resolution stochastic simulations of rain storms that can serve as an input to hydrological models.

Simulations of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal with a High-Resolution Model: Sensitivity to Large-Scale Boundary Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, Anil; Done, James; Dudhia, Jimy; Niyogi, Dev

2011-01-01

The predictability of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal was explored in terms of track and intensity using the Advanced Research Hurricane Weather Research Forecast (AHW) model. This constitutes the first application of the AHW over an area that lies outside the region of the North Atlantic for which this model was developed and tested. Several experiments were conducted to understand the possible contributing factors that affected Sidr s intensity and track simulation by varying the initial start time and domain size. Results show that Sidr s track was strongly controlled by the synoptic flow at the 500-hPa level, seen especially due to the strong mid-latitude westerly over north-central India. A 96-h forecast produced westerly winds over north-central India at the 500-hPa level that were notably weaker; this likely caused the modeled cyclone track to drift from the observed actual track. Reducing the model domain size reduced model error in the synoptic-scale winds at 500 hPa and produced an improved cyclone track. Specifically, the cyclone track appeared to be sensitive to the upstream synoptic flow, and was, therefore, sensitive to the location of the western boundary of the domain. However, cyclone intensity remained largely unaffected by this synoptic wind error at the 500-hPa level. Comparison of the high resolution, moving nested domain with a single coarser resolution domain showed little difference in tracks, but resulted in significantly different intensities. Experiments on the domain size with regard to the total precipitation simulated by the model showed that precipitation patterns and 10-m surface winds were also different. This was mainly due to the mid-latitude westerly flow across the west side of the model domain. The analysis also suggested that the total precipitation pattern and track was unchanged when the domain was extended toward the east, north, and south. Furthermore, this highlights our conclusion that Sidr was influenced from the west side of the domain. The displacement error was significantly reduced after the domain size from the western model boundary was decreased. Study results demonstrate the capability and need of a high-resolution mesoscale modeling framework for simulating the complex interactions that contribute to the formation of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal region

Numerical modeling and analysis of the effect of complex Greek topography on tornadogenesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsangouras, I. T.; Pytharoulis, I.; Nastos, P. T.

2014-07-01

Tornadoes have been reported in Greece over recent decades in specific sub-geographical areas and have been associated with strong synoptic forcing. While it has been established that meteorological conditions over Greece are affected at various scales by the significant variability of topography, the Ionian Sea to the west and the Aegean Sea to the east, there is still uncertainty regarding topography's importance on tornadic generation and development. The aim of this study is to investigate the role of topography in significant tornadogenesis events that were triggered under strong synoptic scale forcing over Greece. Three tornado events that occurred over the last years in Thebes (Boeotia, 17 November 2007), Vrastema (Chalkidiki, 12 February 2010) and Vlychos (Lefkada, 20 September 2011) were selected for numerical experiments. These events were associated with synoptic scale forcing, while their intensities were T4-T5 (on the TORRO scale), causing significant damage. The simulations were performed using the non-hydrostatic weather research and forecasting model (WRF), initialized by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) gridded analyses, with telescoping nested grids that allow for the representation of atmospheric circulations ranging from the synoptic scale down to the mesoscale. In the experiments, the topography of the inner grid was modified by: (a) 0% (actual topography) and (b) -100% (without topography), making an effort to determine whether the occurrence of tornadoes - mainly identified by various severe weather instability indices - could be indicated by modifying topography. The principal instability variables employed consisted of the bulk Richardson number (BRN) shear, the energy helicity index (EHI), the storm-relative environmental helicity (SRH), and the maximum convective available potential energy (MCAPE, for parcels with maximum θe). Additionally, a model verification was conducted for every sensitivity experiment accompanied by analysis of the absolute vorticity budget. Numerical simulations revealed that the complex topography constituted an important factor during the 17 November 2007 and 12 February 2010 events, based on EHI, SRH, BRN, and MCAPE analyses. Conversely, topography around the 20 September 2011 event was characterized as the least significant factor based on EHI, SRH, BRN, and MCAPE analyses.

Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barrett, Joe H., III; Short, David

2008-01-01

This report describes work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in predicting peak winds at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45th Weather Squadron requested the AMU develop a tool to help them forecast the speed and timing of the daily peak and average wind, from the surface to 300 ft on KSC/CCAFS during the cool season. Based on observations from the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network , Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) surface observations, and CCAFS sounding s from the cool season months of October 2002 to February 2007, the AMU created mul tiple linear regression equations to predict the timing and speed of the daily peak wind speed, as well as the background average wind speed. Several possible predictors were evaluated, including persistence , the temperature inversion depth and strength, wind speed at the top of the inversion, wind gust factor (ratio of peak wind speed to average wind speed), synoptic weather pattern, occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft, 4000 ft, or 5000 ft.

Circulation weather types and their influence on precipitation in Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putniković, Suzana; Tošić, Ivana; Đurđević, Vladimir

2016-10-01

An objective classification scheme of atmospheric circulation, in which daily circulation is determined by the strength, direction, and vorticity of geostrophic flow, has been applied to the atmosphere over Serbia for the time period 1961-2010. The results for the sea level and isobaric level of 500 hPa for winter and summer are presented. The 26 circulation types (eight pure direction, 16 hybrid, cyclonic, and anticyclonic types) are determined and described. Each of the circulation types has a distinct underlying synoptic pattern that produces the expected type and direction of flow over the study area. The relative frequencies of the circulation types, and the relationship between the precipitation and circulation types at three stations on a seasonal time scale are analyzed. The anticyclonic weather type dominates in winter (18.93 %) and summer (18.70 %), followed by the northeasterly type (16.65 %) in summer, and the cyclonic type (12.83 %) in winter. The cyclonic types (C and hybrid) have a higher than average probability of rain at all stations. Conversely, the anticyclonic types are associated with a lower than average probability and intensity of rainfall.

Characterizing severe weather potential in synoptically weakly forced thunderstorm environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Paul W.; Mote, Thomas L.

2018-04-01

Weakly forced thunderstorms (WFTs), short-lived convection forming in synoptically quiescent regimes, are a contemporary forecasting challenge. The convective environments that support severe WFTs are often similar to those that yield only non-severe WFTs and, additionally, only a small proportion of individual WFTs will ultimately produce severe weather. The purpose of this study is to better characterize the relative severe weather potential in these settings as a function of the convective environment. Thirty-one near-storm convective parameters for > 200 000 WFTs in the Southeastern United States are calculated from a high-resolution numerical forecasting model, the Rapid Refresh (RAP). For each parameter, the relative odds of WFT days with at least one severe weather event is assessed along a moving threshold. Parameters (and the values of them) that reliably separate severe-weather-supporting from non-severe WFT days are highlighted.Only two convective parameters, vertical totals (VTs) and total totals (TTs), appreciably differentiate severe-wind-supporting and severe-hail-supporting days from non-severe WFT days. When VTs exceeded values between 24.6 and 25.1 °C or TTs between 46.5 and 47.3 °C, odds of severe-wind days were roughly 5 × greater. Meanwhile, odds of severe-hail days became roughly 10 × greater when VTs exceeded 24.4-26.0 °C or TTs exceeded 46.3-49.2 °C. The stronger performance of VT and TT is partly attributed to the more accurate representation of these parameters in the numerical model. Under-reporting of severe weather and model error are posited to exacerbate the forecasting challenge by obscuring the subtle convective environmental differences enhancing storm severity.

Analysis of synoptic patterns in relationship with severe rainfall events in the Ebre Observatory (Catalonia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Casas-Castillo, M. Carmen; Peña, Juan Carlos; Aran, Montserrat; Rodríguez-Solà, Raúl; Redaño, Angel; Solé, German

2018-03-01

The study has obtained a classification of the synoptic patterns associated with a selection of extreme rain episodes registered in the Ebre Observatory between 1905 and 2003, showing a return period of not less than 10 years for any duration from 5 min to 24 h. These episodes had been previously classified in four rainfall intensity groups attending to their meteorological time scale. The synoptic patterns related to every group have been obtained applying a multivariable analysis to three atmospheric levels: sea-level pressure, temperature, and geopotential at 500 hPa. Usually, the synoptic patterns associated with intense rain in southern Catalonia are featured by low-pressure systems advecting warm and wet air from the Mediterranean Sea at the low levels of the troposphere. The configuration in the middle levels of the troposphere is dominated by negative anomalies of geopotential, indicating the presence of a low or a cold front, and temperature anomalies, promoting the destabilization of the atmosphere. These configurations promote the occurrence of severe convective events due to the difference of temperature between the low and medium levels of troposphere and the contribution of humidity in the lowest levels of the atmosphere.

Seasonal prevailing surface winds in Northern Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tošić, Ivana; Gavrilov, Milivoj B.; Marković, Slobodan B.; Ruman, Albert; Putniković, Suzana

2018-02-01

Seasonal prevailing surface winds are analyzed in the territory of Northern Serbia, using observational data from 12 meteorological stations over several decades. In accordance with the general definition of prevailing wind, two special definitions of this term are used. The seasonal wind roses in 16 directions at each station are analyzed. This study shows that the prevailing winds in Northern Serbia have northwestern and southeastern directions. Circulation weather types over Serbia are presented in order to determine the connections between the synoptic circulations and prevailing surface winds. Three controlling pressure centers, i.e., the Mediterranean cyclone, Siberian high, and the Azores anticyclone, appear as the most important large-scale factors that influence the creation of the prevailing winds over Northern Serbia. Beside the synoptic cause of the prevailing winds, it is noted that the orography of the eastern Balkans has a major influence on the winds from the second quadrant. It was found that the frequencies of circulation weather types are in agreement with those of the prevailing winds over Northern Serbia.

Coastal Frontogenesis and Associated Severe Weather on 13 March 1986 (GALE IOP 13)

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-01-01

facilities used in this research are described as follows: a) Sounding operations The GALE sounding operations were designed to provide three-dimensional...airplanes were developed for a variety of weather scenarios. These tracks were designed to provide, but were not limited to, in situ measurements of...NU PA NJ Figur 2.. TpgahMfIh otesen ntdSae D ikea .,18) 32 3. CASE STUDY 3.1 Synoptic Overview On 12 March 1986 a back-door cold front (Carr, 1951

Numerical simulation of tornadoes' meteorological conditions over Greece: A case study of tornadic activity over NW Peloponnese on March 25, 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsangouras, Ioannis T.; Nastos, Panagiotis T.; Pytharoulis, Ioannis

2014-05-01

Recent research revealed that NW Peloponnese, Greece is an area that favours pre-frontal tornadic incidence. This study presents the results of the synoptic analysis of the meteorological conditions during a tornado event over NW Peloponnese on March 25, 2009. Further, the role of topography in tornado genesis is examined. The tornado was formed approximately at 10:30 UTC, south-west of Vardas village, crossed the Nea Manolada and faded away at Lappas village, causing several damage. The length of its track was approximately 9-10 km and this tornado was characterized as F2 (Fujita scale) or T4-T5 in TORRO intensity scale. Synoptic analysis was based on ECMWF datasets, as well as on daily composite mean and anomaly of the geopotential heights at the middle and lower troposphere from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In addition, numerous datasets derived from weather observations and remote sensing were used in order to interpret better the examined extreme event. Finally, a numerical simulation was performed using the non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), initialized with ECMWF gridded analyses, with telescoping nested grids that allow the representation of atmospheric circulations ranging from the synoptic scale down to the meso-scale. In the numerical simulations the topography of the inner grid was modified by: a) 0% (actual topography) and b) -100% (without topography).

A comparative analysis of rawinsonde and NIMBUS 6 and TIROS N satellite profile data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scoggins, J. R.; Carle, W. E.; Knight, K.; Moyer, V.; Cheng, N. M.

1981-01-01

Comparisons are made between rawinsonde and satellite profiles in seven areas for a wide range of surface and weather conditions. Variables considered include temperature, dewpoint temperature, thickness, precipitable water, lapse rate of temperature, stability, geopotential height, mixing ratio, wind direction, wind speed, and kinematic parameters, including vorticity and the advection of vorticity and temperature. In addition, comparisons are made in the form of cross sections and synoptic fields for selected variables. Sounding data from the NIMBUS 6 and TIROS N satellites were used. Geostrophic wind computed from smoothed geopotential heights provided large scale flow patterns that agreed well with the rawinsonde wind fields. Surface wind patterns as well as magnitudes computed by use of the log law to extrapolate wind to a height of 10 m agreed with observations. Results of this study demonstrate rather conclusively that satellite profile data can be used to determine characteristics of large scale systems but that small scale features, such as frontal zones, cannot yet be resolved.

Trace gases, aerosols and their interactions with synoptic weather: An overview of in-situ measurements at the SORPES Station in the western Yangtze River Delta, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, A.; Fu, C.; Yang, X.; Petaja, T.; Kerminen, V.; Kulmala, M. T.

2011-12-01

This work presents an overview of 1 yr measurements of ozone (O3) and fine particular matter (PM2.5) and related trace gases at a recently developed regional background site, the Station for Observing Regional Processes of the Earth System (SORPES), in the western part of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in eastern China. Ozone and PM2.5 showed strong seasonal cycles but with contrast patterns: O3 reached a maximum in warm seasons but PM2.5 in cold seasons. Correlation analysis suggests a VOC-sensitive regime for O3 chemistry and a formation of secondary aerosols under conditions of high O3 in summer. Compared with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards in China, our measurements report 15 days of O3 exceedance and 148 days of PM2.5 exceedance during the 1 yr period, suggesting a severe air pollution situation in this region. A calculation of potential source contributions based on Lagrangian dispersion simulations suggests that emissions from the YRD contributed to over 70% of the O3 precursor CO, with a majority from the mid-YRD. North-YRD and the North China Plain are the main contributors to PM2.5pollution in this region. Case studies for typical O3 and PM2.5 episodes showed that synoptic weather played an important role in air pollution, especially for O3. Observation during the typical biomass burning seasons also shows clear air pollution - weather interactions. For the typical episode occurred on 10 June, 2012, the measurement suggest that the mixed agricultural burning plumes with fossil fuel combustion pollution resulted in a decrease of solar radiation by more than 70 %, of sensible heat flux over 85 %, a temperature drop by almost 10 K, and a change 10 of rainfall during daytime and nighttime. This work shows an important environmental impact from industrialization and urbanization in the YRD region, and suggests an urgent need for improving air quality in these areas through collaborative control measures among different administrative regions, and also highlights a cross-disciplinary need in both measurement and modeling to study the regional environmental, weather and climate problems in East China.

Trace gases, aerosols and their interactions with synoptic weather: An overview of in-situ measurements at the SORPES Station in the western Yangtze River Delta, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, A.; Fu, C.; Yang, X.; Petaja, T.; Kerminen, V.; Kulmala, M. T.

2013-12-01

This work presents an overview of 1 yr measurements of ozone (O3) and fine particular matter (PM2.5) and related trace gases at a recently developed regional background site, the Station for Observing Regional Processes of the Earth System (SORPES), in the western part of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in eastern China. Ozone and PM2.5 showed strong seasonal cycles but with contrast patterns: O3 reached a maximum in warm seasons but PM2.5 in cold seasons. Correlation analysis suggests a VOC-sensitive regime for O3 chemistry and a formation of secondary aerosols under conditions of high O3 in summer. Compared with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards in China, our measurements report 15 days of O3 exceedance and 148 days of PM2.5 exceedance during the 1 yr period, suggesting a severe air pollution situation in this region. A calculation of potential source contributions based on Lagrangian dispersion simulations suggests that emissions from the YRD contributed to over 70% of the O3 precursor CO, with a majority from the mid-YRD. North-YRD and the North China Plain are the main contributors to PM2.5pollution in this region. Case studies for typical O3 and PM2.5 episodes showed that synoptic weather played an important role in air pollution, especially for O3. Observation during the typical biomass burning seasons also shows clear air pollution - weather interactions. For the typical episode occurred on 10 June, 2012, the measurement suggest that the mixed agricultural burning plumes with fossil fuel combustion pollution resulted in a decrease of solar radiation by more than 70 %, of sensible heat flux over 85 %, a temperature drop by almost 10 K, and a change 10 of rainfall during daytime and nighttime. This work shows an important environmental impact from industrialization and urbanization in the YRD region, and suggests an urgent need for improving air quality in these areas through collaborative control measures among different administrative regions, and also highlights a cross-disciplinary need in both measurement and modeling to study the regional environmental, weather and climate problems in East China.

Studies of vorticity imbalance and stability, moisture budget, atmospheric energetics, and gradients of meteorological parameters during AVE 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scoggins, J. R. (Editor)

1978-01-01

Four diagnostic studies of AVE 3. are presented. AVE 3 represents a high wind speed wintertime situation, while most AVE's analyzed previously represented springtime conditions with rather low wind speeds. The general areas of analysis include the examination of budgets of vorticity, moisture, kinetic energy, and potential energy and a synoptic and statistical study of the horizontal gradients of meteorological parameters. Conclusions are integrated with and compared to those obtained in previously analyzed experiments (mostly springtime weather situations) so as to establish a more definitive understanding of the structure and dynamics of the atmosphere under a wide range of synoptic conditions.

Extratropical Weather Systems on Mars: Radiatively-Active Water Ice Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, J. L.; Kahre, M. A.; Haberle, R. M.; Urata, R. A.; Montmessin, F.

2017-01-01

Extratropical, large-scale weather disturbances, namely transient, synoptic-period,baroclinic barotropic eddies - or - low- (high-) pressure cyclones (anticyclones), are components fundamental to global circulation patterns for rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmospheres such as Earth and Mars. Such "wave-like" disturbances that arise via (geophysical) fluid shear instability develop, mature and decay, and travel west-to-east in the middle and high latitudes within terrestrial-like planetary atmospheres. These disturbances serve as critical agents in the transport of heat and momentum between low and high latitudes of the planet. Moreover, they transport trace species within the atmosphere (e.g., water vapor/ice, other aerosols (dust), chemical species, etc). Between early autumn through early spring, middle and high latitudes on Mars exhibit strong equator-to-pole mean temperature contrasts (i.e., "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that such strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems [Banfield et al., 2004; Barnes et al., 1993]. A good example of traveling weather systems, frontal wave activity and sequestered dust activity from MGS/MOC image analyses is provided in Figure 1 (cf. Wang et al. [2005]). Utilizing an upgraded and evolving version of the NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) Mars global climate model, investigated here are key dynamical and physical aspects of simulated northern hemisphere (NH) large-scale extratropica lweather systems,with and without radiatively-active water ice clouds. Mars Climate Model:

Numerical simulation and analysis of the April 2013 Chicago floods

DOE PAGES

Campos, Edwin; Wang, Jiali

2015-09-08

The weather event associated to record Chicago floods on April 2013 is investigated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Observations at Argonne National Laboratory and multi-sensor (weather radar and rain gauge) precipitation data from the National Weather Service were employed to evaluate the model’s performance. The WRF model captured the synoptic-scale atmospheric features well, but the simulated 24-h accumulated precipitation and short-period temporal evolution of precipitation over the heavy-rain region were less successful. To investigate the potential reasons for the model bias, four supplementary sensitivity experiments using various microphysics schemes and cumulus parameterizations were designed. Of themore » five tested parameterizations, the WRF Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6) graupel scheme and Kain-Fritsch (KF) cumulus parameterization outperformed the others, such as Grell-Dévényi (GD) cumulus parameterization, which underestimated the precipitation by 30–50% on a regional-average scale. Morrison microphysics and KF outperformed the others for the spatial patterns of 24-h accumulated precipitation. The spatial correlation between observation and Morrison-KF was 0.45, higher than those for other simulations. All of the simulations underestimated the precipitation over northeastern Illinois (especially at Argonne) during 0400–0800 UTC 18 April because of weak ascending motion or small moisture. In conclusion, all of the simulations except WSM6-GD also underestimated the precipitation during 1200–1600 UTC 18 April because of weak southerly flow.« less

Stratospheric Ozone Distribution and Tropospheric General Circulation: Interconnections in the UTLS Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barodka, S.; Krasovsky, A.; Shalamyansky, A.

2014-12-01

The height of the tropopause, which divided the stratosphere and the troposphere, is a result of two rival categories of processes: the tropospheric vertical convection and the radiative heating of the stratosphere resulting from the ozone cycle. Hence, it is natural that tropospheric and stratospheric phenomena can have effect each other in manifold processes of stratosphere-troposphere interactions. In the present study we focus our attention to the "top-down" side of the interaction: the impact of stratospheric ozone distribution on the features of tropospheric circulation and the associated weather patterns and regional climate conditions. We proceed from analyzes of the observational data performed at the A.I. Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, which suggest a distinct correlation between stratospheric ozone distribution, synoptic formations and air-masses boundaries in the upper troposphere and the temperature field of the lower stratosphere [1]. Furthermore, we analyze local features of atmospheric general circulation and stratospheric ozone distribution from the atmospheric reanalyses and general circulation model data, focusing our attention to instantaneous positions of subtropical and polar stationary atmospheric fronts, which define regional characteristics of the general circulation cells in the troposphere and separate global tropospheric air-masses, correspond to distinct meteorological regimes in the TOC field [2, 3]. We assume that by altering the tropopause height, stratospheric ozone-related processes can have an impact on the location of the stationary atmospheric fronts, thereby exerting influence on circulation processes in troposphere and lower stratosphere. For midlatitudes, the tropopause height controls the position of the polar stationary front, which has a direct impact on the trajectory of motion of active vortices on synoptic tropospheric levels, thereby controlling weather patterns in that region and the regional climate. This mechanism is particularly important for the formation of blocking events. [1] A.M. Shalamyansky - Proceedings of Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, V. 568, pp. 173-194, 2013 (in Russian) [2] R.D. Hudson et al - J. Atmos. Sci., V. 60, pp. 1669-1677, 2003. [3] R.D. Hudson et al - Atmos. Chem. Phys., V. 6, pp. 5183-5191, 2006.

Weather Features Associated with Aircraft Icing Conditions: A Case Study

PubMed Central

Fernández-González, Sergio; Sánchez, José Luis; Gascón, Estíbaliz; López, Laura; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Merino, Andrés

2014-01-01

In the context of aviation weather hazards, the study of aircraft icing is very important because of several accidents attributed to it over recent decades. On February 1, 2012, an unusual meteorological situation caused severe icing of a C-212-200, an aircraft used during winter 2011-2012 to study winter cloud systems in the Guadarrama Mountains of the central Iberian Peninsula. Observations in this case were from a MP-3000A microwave radiometric profiler, which acquired atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles continuously every 2.5 minutes. A Cloud Aerosol and Precipitation Spectrometer (CAPS) was also used to study cloud hydrometeors. Finally, ice nuclei concentration was measured in an isothermal cloud chamber, with the goal of calculating concentrations in the study area. Synoptic and mesoscale meteorological conditions were analysed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It was demonstrated that topography influenced generation of a mesolow and gravity waves on the lee side of the orographic barrier, in the region where the aircraft experienced icing. Other factors such as moisture, wind direction, temperature, atmospheric stability, and wind shear were decisive in the appearance of icing. This study indicates that icing conditions may arise locally, even when the synoptic situation does not indicate any risk. PMID:24701152

High Altitude Bird Migration at Temperate Latitudes: A Synoptic Perspective on Wind Assistance

PubMed Central

Dokter, Adriaan M.; Shamoun-Baranes, Judy; Kemp, Michael U.; Tijm, Sander; Holleman, Iwan

2013-01-01

At temperate latitudes the synoptic patterns of bird migration are strongly structured by the presence of cyclones and anticyclones, both in the horizontal and altitudinal dimensions. In certain synoptic conditions, birds may efficiently cross regions with opposing surface wind by choosing a higher flight altitude with more favourable wind. We observed migratory passerines at mid-latitudes that selected high altitude wind optima on particular nights, leading to the formation of structured migration layers at varying altitude up to 3 km. Using long-term vertical profiling of bird migration by C-band Doppler radar in the Netherlands, we find that such migration layers occur nearly exclusively during spring migration in the presence of a high-pressure system. A conceptual analytic framework providing insight into the synoptic patterns of wind assistance for migrants that includes the altitudinal dimension has so far been lacking. We present a simple model for a baroclinic atmosphere that relates vertical profiles of wind assistance to the pressure and temperature patterns occurring at temperate latitudes. We show how the magnitude and direction of the large scale horizontal temperature gradient affects the relative gain in wind assistance that migrants obtain through ascending. Temperature gradients typical for northerly high-pressure systems in spring are shown to cause high altitude wind optima in the easterly sectors of anticyclones, thereby explaining the frequent observations of high altitude migration in these synoptic conditions. Given the recurring synoptic arrangements of pressure systems across temperate continents, the opportunities for exploiting high altitude wind will differ between flyways, for example between easterly and westerly oceanic coasts. PMID:23300969

High altitude bird migration at temperate latitudes: a synoptic perspective on wind assistance.

PubMed

Dokter, Adriaan M; Shamoun-Baranes, Judy; Kemp, Michael U; Tijm, Sander; Holleman, Iwan

2013-01-01

At temperate latitudes the synoptic patterns of bird migration are strongly structured by the presence of cyclones and anticyclones, both in the horizontal and altitudinal dimensions. In certain synoptic conditions, birds may efficiently cross regions with opposing surface wind by choosing a higher flight altitude with more favourable wind. We observed migratory passerines at mid-latitudes that selected high altitude wind optima on particular nights, leading to the formation of structured migration layers at varying altitude up to 3 km. Using long-term vertical profiling of bird migration by C-band Doppler radar in the Netherlands, we find that such migration layers occur nearly exclusively during spring migration in the presence of a high-pressure system. A conceptual analytic framework providing insight into the synoptic patterns of wind assistance for migrants that includes the altitudinal dimension has so far been lacking. We present a simple model for a baroclinic atmosphere that relates vertical profiles of wind assistance to the pressure and temperature patterns occurring at temperate latitudes. We show how the magnitude and direction of the large scale horizontal temperature gradient affects the relative gain in wind assistance that migrants obtain through ascending. Temperature gradients typical for northerly high-pressure systems in spring are shown to cause high altitude wind optima in the easterly sectors of anticyclones, thereby explaining the frequent observations of high altitude migration in these synoptic conditions. Given the recurring synoptic arrangements of pressure systems across temperate continents, the opportunities for exploiting high altitude wind will differ between flyways, for example between easterly and westerly oceanic coasts.

Synoptic variability of extreme snowfall in the St. Elias Mountains, Yukon, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andin, Caroline; Zdanowicz, Christian; Copland, Luke

2015-04-01

Glaciers in the Wrangell and St. Elias Mountains (Alaska and Yukon) are presently experiencing some of the highest regional wastage rates worldwide. While the effect of regional temperatures on glacier melt rates in this region has been investigated, comparatively little is known about how synoptic climate variations, for example in the position and strength of the Aleutian Low, modulate snow accumulation on these glaciers. Such information is needed to accurately forecast future wastage rates, glacier-water resource availability, and contributions to sea-level rise. Starting in 2000, automated weather stations (AWS) were established in the central St-Elias Mountains (Yukon) at altitudes ranging from 1190 to 5400 m asl, to collect climatological data in support of glaciological research. These data are the longest continuous year-round observations of surface climate ever obtained from this vast glaciated region. Here we present an analysis of snowfall events in the icefields of the St-Elias Mountains based on a decade-long series of AWS observations of snow accumulation. Specifically, we investigated the synoptic patterns and air mass trajectories associated with the largest snowfall events (> 25 cm/12 hours) that occurred between 2002 and 2012. Nearly 80% of these events occurred during the cold season (October-March), and in 74 % of cases the precipitating air masses originated from the North Pacific south of 50°N. Zonal air mass advection over Alaska, or from the Bering Sea or the Arctic Ocean, was comparatively rare (20%). Somewhat counter-intuitively, dominant surface winds in the St. Elias Mountains during high snowfall events were predominantly easterly, probably due to boundary-layer frictional drag and topographic funneling effects. Composite maps of sea-level pressure and 700 mb winds reveal that intense snowfall events between 2002 and 2012 were associated with synoptic situations characterized by a split, eastwardly-shifted or longitudinally-stretched Aleutian Low (AL) having an easternmost node near the Kenai Peninsula, conditions that drove a strong southwesterly upper airstream across the Gulf of Alaska towards the coast. Situations with a single-node, westerly-shifted AL were comparatively rare. The spatial configuration of the synoptic AL pressure pattern appears to play a greater role in determining snowfall amount in the central St. Elias Mountains than do pressure anomalies within the AL. The estimated snowfall gradient from coastal Alaska to the central St. Elias Mountains during intense snowfall events averaged +2.0 ± 0.7 mm/km (SWE), while the continental-side gradient from the mountains towards the Yukon plateau averaged -3.3 ± 0.9 mm/km (SWE). The findings presented here can better constrain the climatic interpretation of long proxy records of snow accumulation variations developed from glacier cores drilled in the St. Elias Mountains or nearby regions.

Case studies of NOAA 6/TIROS N data impact on numerical weather forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, L. M.; Alperson, Z.; Ben-Amram, T.

1984-01-01

The impact of satellite temperatures from systems which predate the launching of the third generation of vertical sounding instruments aboard TIROS N (13 Oct 1978) and NOAA 6 (27 June 1979) is reported. The first evaluation of soundings from TIROS N found that oceanic, cloudy retrievals over NH mid latitudes show a cold bias in winter. It is confirmed for both satellite systems using a larger data base. It is shown that RMS differences between retrievals and colocated radiosonde observations within the swath 30-60N during the 1979-80 winter were generally 2-3K in clear air and higher for cloudy columns. A positive impact of TIROS N temperatures on the analysis of synoptic weather systems is shown. Analyses prepared from only satellite temperatures seemed to give a better definition to weather systems' thermal structure than that provided by corresponding NMC analyses without satellite data. The results of a set of 14 numerical forecast experiments performed with the PE model of the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) are summarized; these were designed to test the impact of TIROS N and NOAA 6 temperatures within the IMS analysis and forecast cycle. The satellite data coverage over the NH, the mean area/period S1 and RMS verification scores and the spatial distribution of SAT versus NO SAT forecast differences are discussed and it is concluded that positive forecast impact occurs over ocean areas where the extra data improve the specification which is otherwise available from conventional observations. The forecast impact for three cases from the same set of experiments was examined and it is found that satellite temperatures, observed over the Atlantic Ocean contribute to better forecasts over Iceland and central Europe although a worse result was verified over Spain. It is also shown that the better scores of a forecast based also on satellite data and verified over North America actually represent a mixed impact on the forecast synoptic patterns. A superior 48 hr 500 mb forecast over the western US due to the better initial specification afforded by satellite observed temperatures over the North Pacific Ocean is shown.

A Synoptic Climatology of Combined Severe/Weather/Flash Flood Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pallozzi, Kyle J.

Classical forms of severe weather such as tornadoes, damaging convective wind gusts, and large hail, as well as flash flooding events, all have potentially large societal impacts. This impact is further magnified when these hazards occur simultaneously in time and space. A major challenge for operational forecasters is how to accurately predict the occurrence of combined storm hazards, and how to communicate the associated multiple threat hazards to the public. A seven-year climatology (2009-2015) of combined severe weather/flash flooding (SVR/FF) events across the contiguous United States was developed in attempt to study the combined SVR/FF event hazards further. A total of 211 total cases were identified and sub-divided into seven subcategories based on their convective morphology and meteorological characteristics. Heatmaps of event report frequency were created to extract spatial, seasonal and interannual patterns in SVR/FF event activity. Diurnal trends were examined from time series plots of tornado, hail, wind and flash flood/flood reports. Event-centered composites of environmental variables were created for each subcategory from 13 km RUC/RAP analyses. Representative cases studies were conducted for each subcategory. A "ring of fire" with the highest levels of SVR/FF event activity was noted across the central United States. SVR/FF events were least common in the Southeast, High Plains, and Northern Plains. Enhanced SVR/FF activity reflected contributions from synoptic events during the cool and shoulder seasons over the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas and Tennessee Valleys, and MCS activity during the warm season over the lower Great Plains, and the Upper Mississippi, Missouri and Ohio River Valleys. Results from the composite analyses indicated that relatively high values of CAPE, surface-500 hPa shear and precipitable water were observed for all subcategories. Case studies show that many high-end SVR/FF events featured slow-moving, or quasi-stationary fronts/outflow boundaries, a moist troposphere and front-paralleling 850-300 hPa mean winds. In this environment, individual convective cells can be advected downstream along the initiating boundary, resulting in flood-producing training echoes. A relatively moist troposphere leads to efficient precipitation production, limits cold-pool formation/off-boundary propagation, and further increases the likelihood of flash flooding.

Empirical and modeled synoptic cloud climatology of the Arctic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barry, R. G.; Newell, J. P.; Schweiger, A.; Crane, R. G.

1986-01-01

A set of cloud cover data were developed for the Arctic during the climatically important spring/early summer transition months. Parallel with the determination of mean monthly cloud conditions, data for different synoptic pressure patterns were also composited as a means of evaluating the role of synoptic variability on Arctic cloud regimes. In order to carry out this analysis, a synoptic classification scheme was developed for the Arctic using an objective typing procedure. A second major objective was to analyze model output of pressure fields and cloud parameters from a control run of the Goddard Institue for Space Studies climate model for the same area and to intercompare the synoptic climatatology of the model with that based on the observational data.

Statistical characteristics of mudflows in the piedmont areas of Uzbekistan and the role of the synoptic processes for the formation of mudflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mamadjanova, Gavkhar; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2016-04-01

Mudflows are formed almost every year in the territory of Uzbekistan and neighbouring countries. They represent a major threat to human life and settlements and can significantly damage infrastructure. In general, in addition to elevated soil moisture conditions, severe local rainfall events (e.g., 15 mm of precipitation in 12 hours) and associated air temperature conditions are understood to be the main factors in the formation of mudflows in the piedmont areas of Uzbekistan. The main purpose of this study is to understand factors on local and synoptic to hemispheric scales, which cause mudflow variability on interannual and longer time scales. To fulfil this objective, in a first step historical data of mudflow occurrences (mainly March to August) in Uzbekistan provided by the Centre of Hydro-meteorological Service of the Republic of Uzbekistan (Uzhydromet) for more than 140 years are statistically analysed. During the investigation period a total of around 3000 mudflow events were observed with about 21 events per year on average and a maximum of 168 mudflows in 1930. To understand principle factors steering the variability of mudflow occurrences, synoptic scale circulation weather types (CWT) over Central Asia and Uzbekistan are investigated. The majority of mudflows (22%) occur during the advection of westerly airflow when moist air from Central and Southern Europe reaches Uzbekistan. This objectively classified synoptic situation can be related to one of the 15 primary synoptic circulation types over the Central Asia and Uzbekistan which were subjectively derived by Bugayev and Giorgio in 1930-40s (Bugayev et al., 1957), thus confirming the validity of this approach. By means of the CWT approach, we further analyse that on mudflow-days the frequencies of cyclonic, westerly, south-westerly and north-westerly stream flows are increased in comparison to the climatological frequency of occurrence of these circulation weather types. Details of the necessary and sufficient meteorological conditions within a CWT class are investigated. Further studies will investigate and identify key factors steering the variability in CWT frequency variability over Central Asia on longer timescales and how these are related to known major variability modes in the climate system.

Defining Winter and Identifying Synoptic Air Mass Change in the Northeast and Northern Plains U.S. since 1950

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, C. J.; Pennington, D.; Beitscher, M. R.; Godek, M. L.

2017-12-01

Understanding and forecasting the characteristics of winter weather change in the northern U.S. is vital to regional economy, agriculture, tourism and resident life. This is especially true in the Northeast and Northern Plains where substantial changes to the winter season have already been documented in the atmospheric science and biological literature. As there is no single established definition of `winter', this research attempts to identify the winter season in both regions utilizing a synoptic climatological approach with air mass frequencies. The Spatial Synoptic Classification is used to determine the daily air mass/ weather type conditions since 1950 at 40 locations across the two regions. Annual frequencies are first computed as a baseline reference. Then winter air mass frequencies and departures from normal are calculated to define the season along with the statistical significance. Once the synoptic winter is established, long-term regional changes to the season and significance are explored. As evident global changes have occurred after 1975, an Early period of years prior to 1975 and a Late set for all years following this date are compared. Early and Late record synoptic changes are then examined to assess any thermal and moisture condition changes of the regional winter air masses over time. Cold to moderately dry air masses dominate annually in both regions. Northeast winters are also characterized by cold to moderate dry air masses, with coastal locations experiencing more Moist Polar types. The Northern Plains winters are dominated by cold, dry air masses in the east and cold to moderate dry air masses in the west. Prior to 1975, Northeast winters are defined by an increase in cooler and wetter air masses. Dry Tropical air masses only occur in this region after 1975. Northern Plains winters are also characterized by more cold, dry air masses prior to 1975. More Dry Moderate and Moist Moderate air masses have occurred since 1975. These results demonstrate that Northeast winters have air mass conditions that have become warmer and drier in recent decades. Additionally, Northern Plains winters have air mass setups that have become warmer and more moist since the mid 1970s.

Some Aspects of Forecasting Severe Thunderstorms during Cool-Season Return-Flow Episodes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiss, Steven J.

1992-08-01

Historically, the Gulf of Mexico has been considered a primary source of water vapor that influences the weather for much of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains. Although severe thunderstorms and tornadoes occur most frequently during the spring and summer months, the periodic transport of Gulf moisture inland ahead of traveling baroclinic waves can result in significant severe-weather episodes during the cool season.To gain insight into the short-range skill in forecasting surface synoptic patterns associated with moisture return from the Gulf, operational numerical weather prediction models from the National Meteorological Center were examined. Sea level pressure fields from the Limited-Area Fine-Mesh Model (LFM), Nested Grid Model (NGM), and the aviation (AVN) run of the Global Spectral Model, valid 48 h after initial data time, were evaluated for three cool-season cases that preceded severe local storm outbreaks. The NGM and AVN provided useful guidance in forecasting the onset of return flow along the Gulf coast. There was a slight tendency for these models to be slightly slow in the development of return flow. In contrast the LFM typically overforecasts the occurrence of return flow and tends to `open the Gulf' from west to east too quickly.Although the low-level synoptic pattern may be forecast correctly, the overall prediction process is hampered by a data void over the Gulf. It is hypothesized that when the return-flow moisture is located over the Gulf, model forecasts of stability and the resultant operational severe local storm forecasts are less skillful compared to situations when the moisture has spread inland already. This hypothesis is tested by examining the performance of the initial second-day (day 2) severe thunderstorm outlook issued by the National Severe Storms Forecast Center during the Gulf of Mexico Experiment (GUFMEX) in early 1988.It has been found that characteristically different air masses were present along the Gulf coast prior to the issuance of outlooks that accurately predicted the occurrence of severe thunderstorms versus outlooks that did not verify well. Unstable air masses with ample low-level moisture were in place along the coast prior to the issuance of the `good' day 2 outlooks, whereas relatively dry, stable air masses were present before the issuance of `false-alarm' outlooks. In the latter cases, large errors in the NGM 48-h lifted-index predictions were located north of the Gulf coast.

Applications of "Integrated Data Viewer'' (IDV) in the classroom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nogueira, R.; Cutrim, E. M.

2006-06-01

Conventionally, weather products utilized in synoptic meteorology reduce phenomena occurring in four dimensions to a 2-dimensional form. This constitutes a road-block for non-atmospheric-science majors who need to take meteorology as a non-mathematical and complementary course to their major programs. This research examines the use of Integrated Data Viewer-IDV as a teaching tool, as it allows a 4-dimensional representation of weather products. IDV was tested in the teaching of synoptic meteorology, weather analysis, and weather map interpretation to non-science students in the laboratory sessions of an introductory meteorology class at Western Michigan University. Comparison of student exam scores according to the laboratory teaching techniques, i.e., traditional lab manual and IDV was performed for short- and long-term learning. Results of the statistical analysis show that the Fall 2004 students in the IDV-based lab session retained learning. However, in the Spring 2005 the exam scores did not reflect retention in learning when compared with IDV-based and MANUAL-based lab scores (short term learning, i.e., exam taken one week after the lab exercise). Testing the long-term learning, seven weeks between the two exams in the Spring 2005, show no statistically significant difference between IDV-based group scores and MANUAL-based group scores. However, the IDV group obtained exam score average slightly higher than the MANUAL group. Statistical testing of the principal hypothesis in this study, leads to the conclusion that the IDV-based method did not prove to be a better teaching tool than the traditional paper-based method. Future studies could potentially find significant differences in the effectiveness of both manual and IDV methods if the conditions had been more controlled. That is, students in the control group should not be exposed to the weather analysis using IDV during lecture.

PM(10) episodes in Greece: Local sources versus long-range transport-observations and model simulations.

PubMed

Matthaios, Vasileios N; Triantafyllou, Athanasios G; Koutrakis, Petros

2017-01-01

Periods of abnormally high concentrations of atmospheric pollutants, defined as air pollution episodes, can cause adverse health effects. Southern European countries experience high particulate matter (PM) levels originating from local and distant sources. In this study, we investigated the occurrence and nature of extreme PM 10 (PM with an aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm) pollution episodes in Greece. We examined PM 10 concentration data from 18 monitoring stations located at five sites across the country: (1) an industrial area in northwestern Greece (Western Macedonia Lignite Area, WMLA), which includes sources such as lignite mining operations and lignite power plants that generate a high percentage of the energy in Greece; (2) the greater Athens area, the most populated area of the country; and (3) Thessaloniki, (4) Patra, and (5) Volos, three large cities in Greece. We defined extreme PM 10 pollution episodes (EEs) as days during which PM 10 concentrations at all five sites exceeded the European Union (EU) 24-hr PM 10 standards. For each EE, we identified the corresponding prevailing synoptic and local meteorological conditions, including wind surface data, for the period from January 2009 through December 2011. We also analyzed data from remote sensing and model simulations. We recorded 14 EEs that occurred over 49 days and could be grouped into two categories: (1) Local Source Impact (LSI; 26 days, 53%) and (2) African Dust Impact (ADI; 23 days, 47%). Our analysis suggested that the contribution of local sources to ADI EEs was relatively small. LSI EEs were observed only in the cold season, whereas ADI EEs occurred throughout the year, with a higher frequency during the cold season. The EEs with the highest intensity were recorded during African dust intrusions. ADI episodes were found to contribute more than local sources in Greece, with ADI and LSI fraction contribution ranging from 1.1 to 3.10. The EE contribution during ADI fluctuated from 41 to 83 μg/m 3 , whereas during LSI it varied from 14 to 67 μg/m 3 . This paper examines the occurrence and nature of extreme PM 10 pollution episodes (EEs) in Greece during a 3-yr period (2009-2011). Fourteen EEs were found of 49 days total duration, classified into two main categories: Local Source Impact (53%) and African Dust Impact (47%). All the above extreme PM 10 air pollution episodes were the result of specific synoptic prevailing conditions. Specific information on the linkages between the synoptic weather patterns and PM 10 concentrations could be used in the development of weather/health-warning system to alert the public that a synoptic episode is imminent.

Links between large-scale circulation patterns and streamflow in Central Europe: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steirou, Eva; Gerlitz, Lars; Apel, Heiko; Merz, Bruno

2017-06-01

We disentangle the relationships between streamflow and large-scale atmospheric circulation in Central Europe (CE), an area affected by climatic influences from different origins (Atlantic, Mediterranean and Continental) and characterized by diverse topography and flow regimes. Our literature review examines in detail the links between mean, high and low flows in CE and large-scale circulation patterns, with focus on two closely related phenomena, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Western-zonal circulation (WC). For both patterns, significant relations, consistent between different studies, are found for large parts of CE. The strongest links are found for the winter season, forming a dipole-like pattern with positive relationships with streamflow north of the Alps and the Carpathians for both indices and negative relationships for the NAO in the south. An influence of winter NAO is also detected in the amplitude and timing of snowmelt flows later in the year. Discharge in CE has further been linked to other large-scale climatic modes such as the Scandinavia pattern (SCA), the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern (EA/WR), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and synoptic weather patterns such as the Vb weather regime. Different mechanisms suggested in the literature to modulate links between streamflow and the NAO are combined with topographical characteristics of the target area in order to explain the divergent NAO/WC influence on streamflow in different parts of CE. In particular, a precipitation mechanism seems to regulate winter flows in North-Western Germany, an area with short duration of snow cover and with rainfall-generated floods. The precipitation mechanism is also likely in Southern CE, where correlations between the NAO and temperature are low. Finally, in the rest of the study area (Northern CE, Alpine region), a joint precipitation-snow mechanism influences floods not only in winter, but also in the spring/snowmelt period, providing some possibilities for flood forecasting.

An assessment of potential weather effects due to operation of the Space Orbiting Light Augmentation Reflector Energy System (SOLARES)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, N. C.

1978-01-01

Implementation of SOLARES will input large quantities of heat continuously into a stationary location on the Earth's surface. The quantity of heat released by each of the SOlARES ground receivers, having a reflector orbit height of 6378 km, exceeds by 30 times that released by large power parks which were studied in detail. Using atmospheric models, estimates are presented for the local weather effects, the synoptic scale effects, and the global scale effects from such intense thermal radiation.

Numerical Study on the Stomatal Responses to Dry-Hot Wind Episodes and Its Effects on Land-Atmosphere Interactions.

PubMed

Wang, Shu; Zheng, Hui; Liu, Shuhua; Miao, Yucong; Li, Jing

2016-01-01

The wheat production in midland China is under serious threat by frequent Dry-Hot Wind (DHW) episodes with high temperature, low moisture and specific wind as well as intensive heat transfer and evapotranspiration. The numerical simulations of these episodes are important for monitoring grain yield and estimating agricultural water demand. However, uncertainties still remain despite that enormous experiments and modeling studies have been conducted concerning this issue, due to either inaccurate synoptic situation derived from mesoscale weather models or unrealistic parameterizations of stomatal physiology in land surface models. Hereby, we investigated the synoptic characteristics of DHW with widely-used mesoscale model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and the effects of leaf physiology on surface evapotranspiration by comparing two land surface models: The Noah land surface model, and Peking University Land Model (PKULM) with stomata processes included. Results show that the WRF model could well replicate the synoptic situations of DHW. Two types of DHW were identified: (1) prevailing heated dry wind stream forces the formation of DHW along with intense sensible heating and (2) dry adiabatic processes overflowing mountains. Under both situations, the PKULM can reasonably model the stomatal closure phenomena, which significantly decreases both evapotranspiration and net ecosystem exchange of canopy, while these phenomena cannot be resolved in the Noah simulations. Therefore, our findings suggest that the WRF-PKULM coupled method may be a more reliable tool to investigate and forecast DHW as well as be instructive to crop models.

Numerical Study on the Stomatal Responses to Dry-Hot Wind Episodes and Its Effects on Land-Atmosphere Interactions

PubMed Central

Zheng, Hui; Liu, Shuhua; Miao, Yucong; Li, Jing

2016-01-01

The wheat production in midland China is under serious threat by frequent Dry-Hot Wind (DHW) episodes with high temperature, low moisture and specific wind as well as intensive heat transfer and evapotranspiration. The numerical simulations of these episodes are important for monitoring grain yield and estimating agricultural water demand. However, uncertainties still remain despite that enormous experiments and modeling studies have been conducted concerning this issue, due to either inaccurate synoptic situation derived from mesoscale weather models or unrealistic parameterizations of stomatal physiology in land surface models. Hereby, we investigated the synoptic characteristics of DHW with widely-used mesoscale model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and the effects of leaf physiology on surface evapotranspiration by comparing two land surface models: The Noah land surface model, and Peking University Land Model (PKULM) with stomata processes included. Results show that the WRF model could well replicate the synoptic situations of DHW. Two types of DHW were identified: (1) prevailing heated dry wind stream forces the formation of DHW along with intense sensible heating and (2) dry adiabatic processes overflowing mountains. Under both situations, the PKULM can reasonably model the stomatal closure phenomena, which significantly decreases both evapotranspiration and net ecosystem exchange of canopy, while these phenomena cannot be resolved in the Noah simulations. Therefore, our findings suggest that the WRF-PKULM coupled method may be a more reliable tool to investigate and forecast DHW as well as be instructive to crop models. PMID:27648943

On the relationship between atmospheric rivers, weather types and floods in Galicia (NW Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eiras-Barca, Jorge; Lorenzo, Nieves; Taboada, Juan; Robles, Alba; Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo

2018-06-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) - long and narrow structures of anomalously high water vapor flux located in the warm sector of extratropical cyclones - have been shown to be closely related to extreme precipitation and flooding. In this paper we analyze the connection between ARs and flooding in the northwestern Spanish region of Galicia under a variety of synoptic conditions represented by the so-called weather types, a classification of daily sea-level pressure patterns obtained by means of a simple scheme that adopts the subjective procedure of Lamb. Flood events are identified from official reports conducted by the Spanish emergency management agency (Protección Civil) from 1979 to 2010. Our results suggest that, although most flood events in Galicia do not coincide with the presence of an overhead AR, ARs are present in the majority of severe cases, particularly in coastal areas. Flood events associated with ARs are connected to cyclonic weather types with westerly and southwesterly flows, which occur mostly in winter months. The link between ARs and severe flooding is not very apparent in inland areas or during summer months, in which case heavy precipitation is usually not frontal in nature but rather convective. Nevertheless, our results show that, in general, the amount of precipitation in flood events in Galicia more than doubles when an AR is present.

The development of a non-linear autoregressive model with exogenous input (NARX) to model climate-water clarity relationships: reconstructing a historical water clarity index for the coastal waters of the southeastern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Cameron C.; Sheridan, Scott C.; Barnes, Brian B.; Hu, Chuanmin; Pirhalla, Douglas E.; Ransibrahmanakul, Varis; Shein, Karsten

2017-10-01

The coastal waters of the southeastern USA contain important protected habitats and natural resources that are vulnerable to climate variability and singular weather events. Water clarity, strongly affected by atmospheric events, is linked to substantial environmental impacts throughout the region. To assess this relationship over the long-term, this study uses an artificial neural network-based time series modeling technique known as non-linear autoregressive models with exogenous input (NARX models) to explore the relationship between climate and a water clarity index (KDI) in this area and to reconstruct this index over a 66-year period. Results show that synoptic-scale circulation patterns, weather types, and precipitation all play roles in impacting water clarity to varying degrees in each region of the larger domain. In particular, turbid water is associated with transitional weather and cyclonic circulation in much of the study region. Overall, NARX model performance also varies—regionally, seasonally and interannually—with wintertime estimates of KDI along the West Florida Shelf correlating to the actual KDI at r > 0.70. Periods of extreme (high) KDI in this area coincide with notable El Niño events. An upward trend in extreme KDI events from 1948 to 2013 is also present across much of the Florida Gulf coast.

Relationship between AOD and synoptic circulation over the Eastern Mediterranean: A comparison between subjective and objective classifications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodenheimer, Shalev; Nirel, Ronit; Lensky, Itamar M.; Dayan, Uri

2018-03-01

The Eastern Mediterranean (EM) Basin is strongly affected by dust originating from two of the largest world sources: The Sahara Desert and the Arabian Peninsula. Climatologically, the distribution pattern of aerosol optical depth (AOD), as proxy to particulate matter (PM), is known to be correlated with synoptic circulation. The climatological relationship between circulation type classifications (CTCs) and AOD levels over the EM Basin ("synoptic skill") was examined for the years 2000-2014. We compared the association between subjective (expert-based) and objective (fully automated) classifications and AOD using autoregressive models. After seasonal adjustment, the mean values of R2 for the different methods were similar. However, the distinct spatial pattern of the R2 values suggests that subjective classifications perform better in their area of expertise, specifically in the southeast region of the study area, while, objective CTCs had better synoptic skill over the northern part of the EM. This higher synoptic skill of subjective CTCs stem from their ability to identify distinct circulation types (e.g. Sharav lows and winter lows) that are infrequent but are highly correlated with AOD. Notably, a simple CTC based on seasonality rather than meteorological parameters predicted well AOD levels, especially over the south-eastern part of the domain. Synoptic classifications that are area-oriented are likely better predictors of AOD and possibly other environmental variables.

Relationship between glacier melting and atmospheric circulation in the southeast Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osipova, O. P.; Osipov, E. Y.

2018-01-01

The interaction between climate and cryosphere is a key issue in recent years. Changes in surface mass balance of mountain glaciers closely correspond to differential changes in atmospheric circulation. Mountain glaciers in southeast Siberia located on East Sayan, Baikalsky and Kodar ridges have been continuously shrinking since the end of the Little Ice Age. In this study we used daily synoptic weather maps (Irkutsk Center of Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring), 500 hPa, 700 hPa and 850 hPa geopotential height and air temperature data of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis to assess relationships between atmospheric circulation patterns and the sum of positive temperature (SPT), a predictor of summer ice/snow ablation. Results show that increased SPT (ablation) is generally associated with anticyclones and anticyclonic pressure fields (with cloudless weather conditions) and warm atmospheric fronts. Decreased SPT (ablation) is strongly correlated with cyclones and cyclonic type pressure fields, cold atmospheric fronts and air advections. Significant correlations have been found between ablation and cyclonic/anticyclonic activity. Revealed decreasing trends in the SPT in three glaciarized ridges at the beginning of the 21st century led to changes of air temperature and snow/ice melt climates.

Residual delay maps unveil global patterns of atmospheric nonlinearity and produce improved local forecasts

PubMed Central

Sugihara, George; Casdagli, Martin; Habjan, Edward; Hess, Dale; Dixon, Paul; Holland, Greg

1999-01-01

We use residual-delay maps of observational field data for barometric pressure to demonstrate the structure of latitudinal gradients in nonlinearity in the atmosphere. Nonlinearity is weak and largely lacking in tropical and subtropical sites and increases rapidly into the temperate regions where the time series also appear to be much noisier. The degree of nonlinearity closely follows the meridional variation of midlatitude storm track frequency. We extract the specific functional form of this nonlinearity, a V shape in the lagged residuals that appears to be a basic feature of midlatitude synoptic weather systems associated with frontal passages. We present evidence that this form arises from the relative time scales of high-pressure versus low-pressure events. Finally, we show that this nonlinear feature is weaker in a well regarded numerical forecast model (European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts) because small-scale temporal and spatial variation is smoothed out in the grided inputs. This is significant, in that it allows us to demonstrate how application of statistical corrections based on the residual-delay map may provide marked increases in local forecast accuracy, especially for severe weather systems. PMID:10588685

The DACCIWA model evaluation project: representation of the meteorology of southern West Africa in state-of-the-art weather, seasonal and climate prediction models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kniffka, Anke; Benedetti, Angela; Knippertz, Peter; Stanelle, Tanja; Brooks, Malcolm; Deetz, Konrad; Maranan, Marlon; Rosenberg, Philip; Pante, Gregor; Allan, Richard; Hill, Peter; Adler, Bianca; Fink, Andreas; Kalthoff, Norbert; Chiu, Christine; Vogel, Bernhard; Field, Paul; Marsham, John

2017-04-01

DACCIWA (Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa) is an EU-funded project that aims to determine the influence of anthropogenic and natural emissions on the atmospheric composition, air quality, weather and climate over southern West Africa. DACCIWA organised a major international field campaign in June-July 2016 and involves a wide range of modelling activities. Here we report about the coordinated model evaluation performed in the framework of DACCIWA focusing on meteorological fields. This activity consists of two elements: (a) the quality of numerical weather prediction during the field campaign, (b) the ability of seasonal and climate models to represent the mean state and its variability. For the first element, the extensive observations from the main field campaign in West Africa in June-July 2016 (ground supersites, radiosondes, aircraft measurements) will be combined with conventional data (synoptic stations, satellites data from various sensors) to evaluate models against. The forecasts include operational products from centres such as the ECMWF, UK MetOffice and the German Weather Service and runs specifically conducted for the planning and the post-analysis of the field campaign using higher resolutions (e.g., WRF, COSMO). The forecast and the observations are analysed in a concerted way to assess the ability of the models to represent the southern West African weather systems and secondly to provide a comprehensive synoptic overview of the state of the atmosphere. In a second step the process will be extended to long-term modelling periods. This includes both seasonal and climate models, respectively. In this case, the observational dataset contains long-term satellite observations and station data, some of which were digitised from written records in the framework of DACCIWA. Parameter choice and spatial averaging will build directly on the weather forecasting evaluation to allow an assessment of the impact of short-term errors on long-term simulations.

Weather and emotional state: a search for associations between weather and calls to telephone counseling services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Driscoll, Dennis; Stillman, Daniel

2002-08-01

Previous research has revealed that an emotional response to weather might be indicated by calls to telephone counseling services. We analyzed call frequency from such "hotlines", each serving communities in a major metropolitan area of the United States (Detroit, Washington DC, Dallas and Seattle). The periods examined were all, or parts of, the years 1997 and 1998. Associations with subjectively derived synoptic weather types for all cities except Seattle, as well as with individual weather elements [cloudiness (sky cover), precipitation, windspeed, and interdiurnal temperature change] for all four cities, were investigated. Analysis of variance and t-tests (significance of means) were applied to test the statistical significance of differences. Although statistically significant results were obtained in scattered instances, the total number was within that expected by chance, and there was little in the way of consistency to these associations. One clear exception was the increased call frequency during destructive (severe) weather, when there is obvious concern about the damage done by it.

Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool in MIDDS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, Mark M.

2010-01-01

The goal of this task was to upgrade the severe weather database from the previous phase by adding weather observations from the years 2004 - 2009, re-analyze the data to determine the important parameters, make adjustments to the index weights depending on the analysis results, and update the MIDDS GUI. The added data increased the period of record from 15 to 21 years. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. Four of the stability indices showed increased severe weather predication. The Total Threat Score (TTS) of the previous work was verified for the warm season of 2009 with very good skill. The TTS Probability of Detection (POD) was 88% and the False alarm rate (FAR) of 8%. Based on the results of the analyses, the MIDDS Severe Weather Worksheet GUI was updated to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters and synoptic-scale dynamics.

Winter air-mass-based synoptic climatological approach and hospital admissions for myocardial infarction in Florence, Italy.

PubMed

Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Grifoni, Daniele; Orlandini, Simone; Cecchi, Lorenzo; Bacci, Laura; Modesti, Pietro Amedeo; Gensini, Gian Franco; Maracchi, Giampiero

2006-09-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between the risk of hospital admission for myocardial infarction (MI) and the daily weather conditions during the winters of 1998-2003, according to an air-mass-based synoptic climatological approach. The effects of time lag and 2-day sequences with specific air mass types were also investigated. Studies concerning the relationship between atmospheric conditions and human health need to take into consideration simultaneous effects of many weather variables. At the moment few studies have surveyed these effects on hospitalizations for MI. Analyses were concentrated on winter, when the maximum peak of hospitalization occurred. An objective daily air mass classification by means of statistical analyses based on ground meteorological data was carried out. A comparison between air mass classification and hospital admissions was made by the calculation of a MI admission index, and to detect significant relationships the Mann-Whitney U test, the analysis of variance, and the Bonferroni test were used. Significant increases in hospital admissions for MI were evident 24h after a day characterized by an anticyclonic continental air mass and 6 days after a day characterized by a cyclonic air mass. Increased risk of hospitalization was found even when specific 2-day air mass sequences occurred. These results represent an important step in identifying reliable linkages between weather and health.

Teaching Mesoscale Meteorology in the Age of the Modernized National Weather Service: A Report on the Unidata/COMET Workshop.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramamurthy, Mohan K.; Murphy, Charles; Moore, James; Wetzel, Melanie; Knight, David; Ruscher, Paul; Mullen, Steve; Desouza, Russel; Hawk, Denise S.; Fulker, David

1995-12-01

This report summarizes discussions that took place during a Unidata Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training (COMET) workshop on Mesoscale Meteorology Instruction in the Age of the Modernized Weather Service. The workshop was held 13-17 June 1994 in Boulder, Colorado, and it was organized by the Unidata Users Committee, with help from Unidata, COMET, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research staff. The principal objective of the workshop was to assess the need for and to initiate those changes at universities that will be required if students are to learn mesoscale and synoptic meteorology more effectively in this era of rapid technological advances. Seventy-one participants took part in the workshop, which included invited lectures, breakout roundtable discussions on focused topics, electronic poster sessions, and a forum for discussing recommendations and findings in a plenary session. Leading scientists and university faculty in the area of synoptic and mesoscale meteorology were invited to share their ideas for integrating data from new observing systems, research and operational weather prediction models, and interactive computer technologies into the classroom. As a result, many useful ideas for incorporating mesoscale datasets and analysis tools into the classroom emerged. Also, recommendations for future coordinated activities to create, catalog, and distribute case study datasets were made by the attendees.

Fat, weather, and date affect migratory songbirds' departure decisions, routes, and time it takes to cross the Gulf of Mexico.

PubMed

Deppe, Jill L; Ward, Michael P; Bolus, Rachel T; Diehl, Robert H; Celis-Murillo, Antonio; Zenzal, Theodore J; Moore, Frank R; Benson, Thomas J; Smolinsky, Jaclyn A; Schofield, Lynn N; Enstrom, David A; Paxton, Eben H; Bohrer, Gil; Beveroth, Tara A; Raim, Arlo; Obringer, Renee L; Delaney, David; Cochran, William W

2015-11-17

Approximately two thirds of migratory songbirds in eastern North America negotiate the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), where inclement weather coupled with no refueling or resting opportunities can be lethal. However, decisions made when navigating such features and their consequences remain largely unknown due to technological limitations of tracking small animals over large areas. We used automated radio telemetry to track three songbird species (Red-eyed Vireo, Swainson's Thrush, Wood Thrush) from coastal Alabama to the northern Yucatan Peninsula (YP) during fall migration. Detecting songbirds after crossing ∼1,000 km of open water allowed us to examine intrinsic (age, wing length, fat) and extrinsic (weather, date) variables shaping departure decisions, arrival at the YP, and crossing times. Large fat reserves and low humidity, indicative of beneficial synoptic weather patterns, favored southward departure across the Gulf. Individuals detected in the YP departed with large fat reserves and later in the fall with profitable winds, and flight durations (mean = 22.4 h) were positively related to wind profit. Age was not related to departure behavior, arrival, or travel time. However, vireos negotiated the GOM differently than thrushes, including different departure decisions, lower probability of detection in the YP, and longer crossing times. Defense of winter territories by thrushes but not vireos and species-specific foraging habits may explain the divergent migratory behaviors. Fat reserves appear extremely important to departure decisions and arrival in the YP. As habitat along the GOM is degraded, birds may be limited in their ability to acquire fat to cross the Gulf.

Fat, weather, and date affect migratory songbirds’ departure decisions, routes, and time it takes to cross the Gulf of Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Deppe, Jill L.; Ward, Michael P.; Bolus, Rachel T.; Diehl, Robert H.; Celis-Murillo, A.; Zenzal, Theodore J.; Moore, Frank R.; Benson, Thomas J.; Smolinsky, Jaclyn A.; Schofield, Lynn N.; Enstrom, David A.; Paxton, Eben H.; Bohrer, Gil; Beveroth, Tara A.; Raim, Arlo; Obringer, Renee L.; Delaney, David; Cochran, William W.

2015-01-01

Approximately two thirds of migratory songbirds in eastern North America negotiate the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), where inclement weather coupled with no refueling or resting opportunities can be lethal. However, decisions made when navigating such features and their consequences remain largely unknown due to technological limitations of tracking small animals over large areas. We used automated radio telemetry to track three songbird species (Red-eyed Vireo, Swainson’s Thrush, Wood Thrush) from coastal Alabama to the northern Yucatan Peninsula (YP) during fall migration. Detecting songbirds after crossing ∼1,000 km of open water allowed us to examine intrinsic (age, wing length, fat) and extrinsic (weather, date) variables shaping departure decisions, arrival at the YP, and crossing times. Large fat reserves and low humidity, indicative of beneficial synoptic weather patterns, favored southward departure across the Gulf. Individuals detected in the YP departed with large fat reserves and later in the fall with profitable winds, and flight durations (mean = 22.4 h) were positively related to wind profit. Age was not related to departure behavior, arrival, or travel time. However, vireos negotiated the GOM differently than thrushes, including different departure decisions, lower probability of detection in the YP, and longer crossing times. Defense of winter territories by thrushes but not vireos and species-specific foraging habits may explain the divergent migratory behaviors. Fat reserves appear extremely important to departure decisions and arrival in the YP. As habitat along the GOM is degraded, birds may be limited in their ability to acquire fat to cross the Gulf.

Fat, weather, and date affect migratory songbirds’ departure decisions, routes, and time it takes to cross the Gulf of Mexico

PubMed Central

Deppe, Jill L.; Ward, Michael P.; Bolus, Rachel T.; Diehl, Robert H.; Celis-Murillo, Antonio; Zenzal, Theodore J.; Moore, Frank R.; Benson, Thomas J.; Smolinsky, Jaclyn A.; Schofield, Lynn N.; Enstrom, David A.; Paxton, Eben H.; Bohrer, Gil; Beveroth, Tara A.; Raim, Arlo; Obringer, Renee L.; Delaney, David; Cochran, William W.

2015-01-01

Approximately two thirds of migratory songbirds in eastern North America negotiate the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), where inclement weather coupled with no refueling or resting opportunities can be lethal. However, decisions made when navigating such features and their consequences remain largely unknown due to technological limitations of tracking small animals over large areas. We used automated radio telemetry to track three songbird species (Red-eyed Vireo, Swainson’s Thrush, Wood Thrush) from coastal Alabama to the northern Yucatan Peninsula (YP) during fall migration. Detecting songbirds after crossing ∼1,000 km of open water allowed us to examine intrinsic (age, wing length, fat) and extrinsic (weather, date) variables shaping departure decisions, arrival at the YP, and crossing times. Large fat reserves and low humidity, indicative of beneficial synoptic weather patterns, favored southward departure across the Gulf. Individuals detected in the YP departed with large fat reserves and later in the fall with profitable winds, and flight durations (mean = 22.4 h) were positively related to wind profit. Age was not related to departure behavior, arrival, or travel time. However, vireos negotiated the GOM differently than thrushes, including different departure decisions, lower probability of detection in the YP, and longer crossing times. Defense of winter territories by thrushes but not vireos and species-specific foraging habits may explain the divergent migratory behaviors. Fat reserves appear extremely important to departure decisions and arrival in the YP. As habitat along the GOM is degraded, birds may be limited in their ability to acquire fat to cross the Gulf. PMID:26578793

Modeling the convective transport of pollutants from eastern Colorado, USA into Rocky Mountain National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pina, A.; Schumacher, R. S.; Denning, S.

2015-12-01

Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) is a Class I Airshed designated under the Clean Air Act. Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition in the Park has been a known problem since weekly measurements of wet deposition of inorganic N began in the 1980s by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP). The addition of N from urban and agriculture emissions along the Colorado Front Range to montane ecosystems degrades air quality/visibility, water quality, and soil pH levels. Based on NADP data during summers 1994-2014, wet N deposition at Beaver Meadows in RMNP exhibited a bimodal gamma distribution. In this study, we identified meteorological transport mechanisms for 3 high wet-N deposition events (all events were within the secondary peak of the gamma distribution) using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The NARR was used to identify synoptic-scale influences on the transport; the WRF model was used to analyze the convective transport of pollutants from a concentrated animal feeding operation near Greeley, Colorado, USA. The WRF simulation included a passive tracer from the feeding operation and a convection-permitting horizontal spacing of 4/3 km. The three cases suggest (a) synoptic-scale moisture and flow patterns are important for priming summer transport events and (b) convection plays a vital role in the transport of Front Range pollutants into RMNP.

Air flow analysis in the upper Río Negro Valley (Argentina)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cogliati, M. G.; Mazzeo, N. A.

2006-06-01

The so called Upper Río Negro Valley in Argentina is one of the most important fruit and vegetable production regions of the country. It comprises the lower valleys of the Limay and Neuquén rivers and the upper Negro river valley. Out of the 41,671 cultivated hectares, 84.6% are cultivated with fruit trees, especially apple, pear and stone fruit trees. Late frosts occurring when trees are sensitive to low temperatures have a significant impact on the regional production. This study presents an analysis of air flow characteristics in the Upper Río Negro Valley and its relationship with ambient air flow. To such effect, observations made when synoptic-scale weather patterns were favorable for radiative frosts (light wind and clear sky) or nocturnal temperature inversion in the lower layer were used. In the Negro river valley, both wind channeling and downward horizontal momentum transport from ambient wind were observed; in nighttime, very light wind events occurred, possibly associated with drainage winds from the nearby higher levels of the barda. In the Neuquén river valley, the prevailing effect appeared to be forced channeling, consistent with the results obtained in valleys where the synoptic scale wind crossed the axis of the valley. In the Limay river valley, the flow was observed to blow parallel to the longitudinal valley axis, possibly influenced by pressure gradient and forced channeling.

Assessment of the relationship between satellite AOD and ground PM₁₀ measurement data considering synoptic meteorological patterns and Lidar data.

PubMed

Zeeshan, Muhammad; Kim Oanh, N T

2014-03-01

Correlation between satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) and ground monitoring particulate matter (PM) depends on the meteorology that determines PM optical properties, its dispersion, accumulation and vertical distribution. This study presents a novel approach to analyze PM-AOD relationship considering the totality of meteorological factors expressed as synoptic patterns. Meteorological observations at 07:00 Bangkok time from 9 regional meteorological stations, in dry seasons (November-April) of 11 years (2000-2010), were used to categorize governing meteorology over Central Thailand into four categories representing the typical observed synoptic patterns. The MANOVA analysis showed that these patterns were statistically different. PM10 recorded at 22 air quality stations in Bangkok Metropolitan Region were examined which showed the highest levels for the days belonging to pattern 1, followed by pattern 4, both with presence of a high pressure ridge, while the minimum for pattern 2 when thermal lows dominated. Lidar aerosol backscatter profiles recorded at Pimai station were used as indicator of PM vertical distribution that showed similarity within each pattern. R(2) between MODIS and Sun photometer AODs at Pimai was above 0.8. Correlation coefficients (R) between MODIS AOD and corresponding 1h PM10 for clear sky days (cloudiness ≤ 3/10) were examined for each pattern in comparison with lump case. Significant improvements were observed for pattern 1, average R across 22 stations was 0.46 for Terra and 0.38 for Aqua AOD compared to lump case with R of 0.34 and 0.31, respectively. Comparable improvement was also observed for pattern 4. For pattern 2, R values were significantly reduced which may be caused by the deeper mixing layers and varying vertical profiles with overall low values of Lidar backscatter coefficients. Improved R values in pattern 1 and 4, which had highest PM10 in BMR, suggested a better potential of using MODIS AOD for PM10 monitoring with synoptic pattern classification. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development and Evaluation of an Integrated Hydrological Modeling Framework for Monitoring and Understanding Floods and Droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Z. L.; Wu, W. Y.; Lin, P.; Maidment, D. R.

2017-12-01

Extreme water events such as catastrophic floods and severe droughts have increased in recent decades. Mitigating the risk to lives, food security, infrastructure, energy supplies, as well as numerous other industries posed by these extreme events requires informed decision-making and planning based on sound science. We are developing a global water modeling capability by building models that will provide total operational water predictions (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, groundwater, channel flow, inundation, snow) at unprecedented spatial resolutions and updated frequencies. Toward this goal, this talk presents an integrated global hydrological modeling framework that takes advantage of gridded meteorological forcing, land surface modeling, channeled flow modeling, ground observations, and satellite remote sensing. Launched in August 2016, the National Water Model successfully incorporates weather forecasts to predict river flows for more than 2.7 million rivers across the continental United States, which transfers a "synoptic weather map" to a "synoptic river flow map" operationally. In this study, we apply a similar framework to a high-resolution global river network database, which is developed from a hierarchical Dominant River Tracing (DRT) algorithm, and runoff output from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) to a vector-based river routing model (The Routing Application for Parallel Computation of Discharge, RAPID) to produce river flows from 2001 to 2016 using Message Passing Interface (MPI) on Texas Advanced Computer Center's Stampede system. In this simulation, global river discharges for more than 177,000 rivers are computed every 30 minutes. The modeling framework's performance is evaluated with various observations including river flows at more than 400 gauge stations globally. Overall, the model exhibits a reasonably good performance in simulating the averaged patterns of terrestrial water storage, evapotranspiration and runoff. The system is appropriate for monitoring and studying floods and droughts. Directions for future research will be outlined and discussed.

Identification and characterisation of regional ozone episodes in the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domínguez-López, D.; Vaca, F.; Hernández-Ceballos, M. A.; Bolívar, J. P.

2015-02-01

Tropospheric ozone is considered one of the most significant air pollutants due to its negative effects on human health, agricultural crops, ecosystems and climate. The features of the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula (high temperatures and high solar radiation, the presence of the Guadalquivir basin and sources of precursors) favour the occurrence of episodes of high concentrations that cause exceedances of legal thresholds with relative frequency. Despite this, no study examining regional ozone episodes has been carried out in this region until now. In the present work a surface hourly ozone dataset (2003-2006) measured at 11 representative stations located in the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula (western Andalusia) was analysed in order to identify and characterise, for the first time, the regional ozone episodes that occur in this area. Using a statistical criterion, eight regional episodes were identified and analysed. The analysis of synoptic weather patterns revealed that these episodes occur in conjunction with two different synoptic conditions (high surface pressure either close to the British Isles or over the Atlantic Ocean). Both conditions generate weak isobaric surface pressure over the Iberian Peninsula, favouring the establishment of easterly winds at 500 m and the development of winds with two main prevailing directions (southwest-northwest, following the Guadalquivir basin) in the study area. During episodic days ozone follows a similar daily cycle to that observed on non-episode summer days, although the levels reached during the former are higher. In both cases, a direct relationship between the daily ozone cycle and the local wind regimen was not observed. This therefore seems to indicate that the daily cycle followed by ozone is mainly regulated by the precursor emissions produced in the environment, by the temperature changes taking place during the day and by the influence of the lower troposphere during anticyclonic weather conditions.

Regime Behavior in Paleo-Reconstructed Streamflow: Attributions to Atmospheric Dynamics, Synoptic Circulation and Large-Scale Climate Teleconnection Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

2017-12-01

Studies have shown that streamflow behavior and dynamics have a significant link with climate and climate variability. Patterns of persistent regime behavior from extended streamflow records in many watersheds justify investigating large-scale climate mechanisms as potential drivers of hydrologic regime behavior and streamflow variability. Understanding such streamflow-climate relationships is crucial to forecasting/simulation systems and the planning and management of water resources. In this study, hidden Markov models are used with reconstructed streamflow to detect regime-like behaviors - the hidden states - and state transition phenomena. Individual extreme events and their spatial variability across the basin are then verified with the identified states. Wavelet analysis is performed to examine the signals over time in the streamflow records. Joint analyses of the climatic data in the 20th century and the identified states are undertaken to better understand the hydroclimatic connections within the basin as well as important teleconnections that influence water supply. Compositing techniques are used to identify atmospheric circulation patterns associated with identified states of streamflow. The grouping of such synoptic patterns and their frequency are then examined. Sliding time-window correlation analysis and cross-wavelet spectral analysis are performed to establish the synchronicity of basin flows to the identified synoptic and teleconnection patterns. The Missouri River Basin (MRB) is examined in this study, both as a means of better understanding the synoptic climate controls in this important watershed and as a case study for the techniques developed here. Initial wavelet analyses of reconstructed streamflow at major gauges in the MRB show multidecadal cycles in regime behavior.

Marine Layer Stratus Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wells, Leonard A.

2007-06-01

The intent of this study is to develop a better understanding of the behavior of late spring through early fall marine layer stratus and fog at Vandenberg Air Force Base, which accounts for a majority of aviation forecasting difficulties. The main objective was to use Leipper (1995) study as a starting point to evaluate synoptic and mesoscale processes involved, and identify specific meteorological parameters that affected the behavior of marine layer stratus and fog. After identifying those parameters, the study evaluates how well the various weather models forecast them. The main conclusion of this study is that weak upper-air dynamic features work with boundary layer motions to influence marine layer behavior. It highlights the importance of correctly forecasting the surface temperature by showing how it ties directly to the wind field. That wind field, modified by the local terrain, establishes the low-level convergence and divergence pattern and the resulting marine layer cloud thicknesses and visibilities.

Rossby waves, extreme fronts, and wildfires in southeastern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reeder, Michael J.; Spengler, Thomas; Musgrave, Ruth

2015-03-01

The most catastrophic fires in recent history in southern Australia have been associated with extreme cold fronts. Here an extreme cold front is defined as one for which the maximum temperature at 2 m is at least 17°C lower on the day following the front. An anticyclone, which precedes the cold front, directs very dry northerlies or northwesterlies from the interior of the continent across the region. The passage of the cold front is followed by strong southerlies or southwesterlies. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim Reanalyses show that this regional synoptic pattern common to all strong cold fronts, and hence severe fire conditions, is a consequence of propagating Rossby waves, which grow to large amplitude and eventually irreversibly overturn. The process of overturning produces the low-level anticyclone and dry conditions over southern Australia, while simultaneously producing an upper level trough and often precipitation in northeastern Australia.

Local-scale analysis of temperature patterns over Poland during heatwave events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krzyżewska, Agnieszka; Dyer, Jamie

2018-01-01

Heatwaves are predicted to increase in frequency, duration, and severity in the future, including over Central Europe where populations are sensitive to extreme temperature. This paper studies six recent major heatwave events over Poland from 2006 through 2015 using regional-scale simulations (10-km grid spacing, hourly frequency) from the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to define local-scale 2-m temperature patterns. For this purpose, a heatwave is defined as at least three consecutive days with maximum 2-m air temperature exceeding 30 °C. The WRF simulations were validated using maximum daily 2-m temperature observations from 12 meteorological stations in select Polish cities, which were selected to have even spatial coverage across the study area. Synoptic analysis of the six study events shows that the inflow of tropical air masses from the south is the primary driver of heatwave onset and maintenance, the highest temperatures (and most vulnerable areas) occur over arable land and artificial surfaces in central and western Poland, while coastal areas in the north, mountain areas in the south, and forested and mosaic areas of smaller fields and pastures of the northwest, northeast, and southeast are less affected by prolonged periods of elevated temperatures. In general, regional differences in 2-m temperature between the hottest and coolest areas is about 2-4 °C. Large urban areas like Warsaw, or the large complex of artificial areas in the conurbation of Silesian cities, are also generally warmer than surrounding areas by roughly 2-4 °C, and even up to 6 °C, especially during the night. Additionally, hot air from the south of Poland flows through a low-lying area between two mountain ranges (Sudetes and Carpathian Mountains)—the so-called Moravian Gate—hitting densely populated urban areas (Silesian cities) and Cracow. These patterns occur only during high-pressure synoptic conditions with low cloudiness and wind and without any active fronts or mesoscale convective disturbances.

Uncertainty in User-contributed Weather Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, S.; Cornford, D.; Bastin, L.; Molyneux, M.

2012-04-01

Websites such as Weather Underground and the Met Office's recently launched Weather Observations Website encourage members of the public to not only record meteorological observations for personal use but to upload them to a free online community to be shared and compared with data from hundreds of other weather stations in the UK alone. With such a concentration of freely available surface observations the question is whether it would be beneficial to incorporate this data into existing data assimilation schemes for constructing the initial conditions in Numerical Weather Prediction models. This question ultimately relates to how closely the amateur data represents reality, and how to quantify this uncertainty such that it may be accounted for when using the data. We will highlight factors that can lead to increased uncertainty. For instance as amateur data often comes with limited metadata it is difficult to assess whether an amateur station conforms to the strict guidelines and quality procedures that professional sites do. These guidelines relate to factors such as siting, exposure and calibration and in many cases it is practically impossible for amateur sites to conform to the guidelines due to a tendency for amateur sites to be located in enclosed urbanised areas. We will present exploratory research comparing amateur data from Weather Observations Website and Weather Underground against the Met Office's meteorological monitoring system which will be taken to represent the 'truth'. We are particularly aiming to identify bias in the amateur data and residual variances which will help to quantify our degree of uncertainty. The research will focus on 3 case periods, each with different synoptic conditions (clear skies, overcast, a frontal progression) and on observations of surface air temperature, precipitation, humidity. Future plans of the project will also be introduced such as further investigations into which factors lead to increased uncertainty, highlighting the importance of quantifying and accounting for their effects. Factors may include the degree of urbanisation around the site as well as those that may vary temporally such as the prevailing synoptic conditions. Will we also describe plans to take a Bayesian approach to assessing uncertainty and how this can be incorporated into data assimilation schemes.

Elucidating the relationship between aerosol concentration and summertime boundary layer structure in central China.

PubMed

Liu, Lin; Guo, Jianping; Miao, Yucong; Liu, Lin; Li, Jian; Chen, Dandan; He, Jing; Cui, Chunguang

2018-06-11

Wuhan, a megacity in central China, suffers from frequent aerosol pollution and is accompanied by meteorological factors at both synoptic and local scales. Partly due to the lack of appropriate observations of planetary boundary layer (PBL), the associations between synoptic conditions, PBL, and pollution there are not yet fully understood. Thus, systematic analyses were conducted using the fine-resolution soundings, surface meteorological measurements, and aerosol observations in Wuhan during summer for the period 2013-2016, in combination with T-mode principal component analysis and simulations of backward trajectory. The results showed that the variations of boundary layer height (BLH) not only modulated the diurnal variation of PM 2.5 concentration in Wuhan, but also the daily pollution level. Five different synoptic patterns during summer in Wuhan were identified from reanalysis geopotential height fields. Among these synoptic patterns, two types characterized by northeasterly prevailing winds, were found to be associated with heavy pollution in Wuhan. Driven by the northeasterly winds, the polluted air mass from the heavily polluted regions could be easily transported to Wuhan, such as North China Plain and Yangtze River Delta. Such regional transports of pollutants must be partly responsible for the aerosol pollution in Wuhan. In addition, these two synoptic patterns were also featured by the relatively high cloud cover and low boundary layer height in Wuhan, which would favor the occurrence of pollution there. Overall, this study has important implications for understanding the important roles of meteorological factors in modulating aerosol pollution in central China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seasonal Forecasts of Extreme Conditions for Wildland Fire Management in Alaska using NMME

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, U. S.; Bieniek, P.; Thoman, R.; York, A.; Ziel, R.

2016-12-01

The summer of 2015 was the second largest Alaska fire season since 1950 where approximately the land area of Massachusetts burned. The record fire year of 2004 resulted in 6.5 million acres burned and was costly from property loss (> 35M) and emergency personnel (> 17M). In addition to requiring significant resources, wildfire smoke impacts air quality in Alaska and downstream into North America. Fires in Alaska result from lightning strikes coupled with persistent (extreme) dry warm conditions in remote areas with limited fire management and the seasonal climate/weather determine the extent of the fire season in Alaska. Fire managers rely on weather/climate outlooks for allocating staff and resources from days to a season in advance. Though currently few tested products are available at the seasonal scale. Probabilistic forecasts of the expected seasonal climate/weather would aid tremendously in the planning process. Advanced knowledge of both lightning and fuel conditions would assist managers in planning resource allocation for the upcoming season. For fuel conditions, the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) has been used since 1992 because it better suits the Alaska fire regime than the standard US National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS). This CFFWIS is based on early afternoon values of 2-m air temperature, relative humidity, and 10-m winds and daily total precipitation. Extremes of these indices and the variables are used to calculate these indices will be defined in reference to fire weather for the boreal forest. The CFFWIS will be applied and evaluated for the NMME hindcasts. This study will evaluate the quality of the forecasts comparing the hindcast NMME CFFWIS to acres burned in Alaska. Spatial synoptic patterns in the NMME related to fire weather extremes will be constructed using self-organized maps and probabilities of occurrence will be evaluated against acres burned.

The effect of water temperature and synoptic winds on the development of surface flows over narrow, elongated water bodies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Segal, M.; Pielke, R. A.

1985-01-01

Simulations of the thermally induced breeze involved with a relatively narrow, elongated water body is presented in conjunction with evaluations of sensible heat fluxes in a stable marine atmospheric surface layer. The effect of the water surface temperature and of the large-scale synoptic winds on the development of surface flows over the water is examined. As implied by the sensible heat flux patterns, the simulation results reveal the following trends: (1) when the synoptic flow is absent or light, the induced surface breeze is not affected noticeably by a reduction of the water surface temperature; and (2) for stronger synoptic flow, the resultant surface flow may be significantly affected by the water surface temperature.

Convectively induced mesoscale weather systems in the tropical and warm-season midlatitude atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smull, Bradley F.

1995-07-01

As anticipated by Nelson [1991] in the last U.S. National Report, mesoscale meteorology has continued to be an area of vigorous research activity. Progress is evinced by a growing number of process-oriented studies capitalizing on expanded observational capabilities, as well as more theoretical treatments employing numerical simulations of increasing sophistication. While the majority of papers within the scope of this review fall into the category of basic research, the field's maturation is evident in the emergence of a growing number of applications to operational weather forecasting. Even as our ability to anticipate shifts in synoptic scale upper-air patterns and associated baroclinic developments has steadily improved, lagging skill with regard to quantitative forecasts of precipitation—particularly in situations where deep moist convection is prevalent—has sustained research in warm-season mesoscale meteorology. Each spring and summer midlatitude populations are exposed to life-threatening natural weather phenomena in the form of lightning, tornadoes, straight-line winds, hail, and flash floods. This point was driven home during the summer of 1993, when an extraordinarily persistent series of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) led to unusually severe and widespread flooding throughout the Mississippi and Missouri river basins. In addition to this obvious impact on regional climate, the 1990's have brought an increased appreciation for the less direct yet potentially significant role that tropical convection may play in shaping global climate through phenomena such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Multi-scalar influence of weather and climate on very large-fires in the Eastern United States

Treesearch

John T. Abatzoglou; Renaud Barbero; Crystal A. Kolden; Katherine C. Hegewisch; Narasimhan K. Larkin; Harry Podschwit

2014-01-01

A majority of area burned in the Eastern United States (EUS) results from a limited number of exceptionally large wildfires. Relationships between climatic conditions and the occurrence of very large-fires (VLF) in the EUS were examined using composite and climate-niche analyses that consider atmospheric factors across inter-annual, sub-seasonal and synoptic temporal...

The influence of mid-latitude storm tracks on hot, cold, dry and wet extremes

PubMed Central

Lehmann, Jascha; Coumou, Dim

2015-01-01

Changes in mid-latitude circulation can strongly affect the number and intensity of extreme weather events. In particular, high-amplitude quasi-stationary planetary waves have been linked to prolonged weather extremes at the surface. In contrast, analyses of fast-traveling synoptic-scale waves and their direct influence on heat and cold extremes are scarce though changes in such waves have been detected and are projected for the 21st century. Here we apply regression analyses of synoptic activity with surface temperature and precipitation in monthly gridded observational data. We show that over large parts of mid-latitude continental regions, summer heat extremes are associated with low storm track activity. In winter, the occurrence of cold spells is related to low storm track activity over parts of eastern North America, Europe, and central- to eastern Asia. Storm tracks thus have a moderating effect on continental temperatures. Pronounced storm track activity favors monthly rainfall extremes throughout the year, whereas dry spells are associated with a lack thereof. Trend analyses reveal significant regional changes in recent decades favoring the occurrence of cold spells in the eastern US, droughts in California and heat extremes over Eurasia. PMID:26657163

Sensitivity of proxies on non-linear interactions in the climate system

PubMed Central

Schultz, Johannes A.; Beck, Christoph; Menz, Gunter; Neuwirth, Burkhard; Ohlwein, Christian; Philipp, Andreas

2015-01-01

Recent climate change is affecting the earth system to an unprecedented extent and intensity and has the potential to cause severe ecological and socioeconomic consequences. To understand natural and anthropogenic induced processes, feedbacks, trends, and dynamics in the climate system, it is also essential to consider longer timescales. In this context, annually resolved tree-ring data are often used to reconstruct past temperature or precipitation variability as well as atmospheric or oceanic indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The aim of this study is to assess weather-type sensitivity across the Northern Atlantic region based on two tree-ring width networks. Our results indicate that nonstationarities in superordinate space and time scales of the climate system (here synoptic- to global scale, NAO, AMO) can affect the climate sensitivity of tree-rings in subordinate levels of the system (here meso- to synoptic scale, weather-types). This scale bias effect has the capability to impact even large multiproxy networks and the ability of these networks to provide information about past climate conditions. To avoid scale biases in climate reconstructions, interdependencies between the different scales in the climate system must be considered, especially internal ocean/atmosphere dynamics. PMID:26686001

Innovative use of self-organising maps (SOMs) in model validation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jolly, Ben; McDonald, Adrian; Coggins, Jack

2016-04-01

We present an innovative combination of techniques for validation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) output against both observations and reanalyses using two classification schemes, demonstrated by a validation of the operational NWP 'AMPS' (the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System). Historically, model validation techniques have centred on case studies or statistics at various time scales (yearly/seasonal/monthly). Within the past decade the latter technique has been expanded by the addition of classification schemes in place of time scales, allowing more precise analysis. Classifications are typically generated for either the model or the observations, then used to create composites for both which are compared. Our method creates and trains a single self-organising map (SOM) on both the model output and observations, which is then used to classify both datasets using the same class definitions. In addition to the standard statistics on class composites, we compare the classifications themselves between the model and the observations. To add further context to the area studied, we use the same techniques to compare the SOM classifications with regimes developed for another study to great effect. The AMPS validation study compares model output against surface observations from SNOWWEB and existing University of Wisconsin-Madison Antarctic Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) during two months over the austral summer of 2014-15. Twelve SOM classes were defined in a '4 x 3' pattern, trained on both model output and observations of 2 m wind components, then used to classify both training datasets. Simple statistics (correlation, bias and normalised root-mean-square-difference) computed for SOM class composites showed that AMPS performed well during extreme weather events, but less well during lighter winds and poorly during the more changeable conditions between either extreme. Comparison of the classification time-series showed that, while correlations were lower during lighter wind periods, AMPS actually forecast the existence of those periods well suggesting that the correlations may be unfairly low. Further investigation showed poor temporal alignment during more changeable conditions, highlighting problems AMPS has around the exact timing of events. There was also a tendency for AMPS to over-predict certain wind flow patterns at the expense of others. In order to gain a larger scale perspective, we compared our mesoscale SOM classification time-series with synoptic scale regimes developed by another study using ERA-Interim reanalysis output and k-means clustering. There was good alignment between the regimes and the observations classifications (observations/regimes), highlighting the effect of synoptic scale forcing on the area. However, comparing the alignment between observations/regimes and AMPS/regimes showed that AMPS may have problems accurately resolving the strength and location of cyclones in the Ross Sea to the north of the target area.

Quantification of mine-drainage inflows to Little Cottonwood Creek, Utah, using a tracer-injection and synoptic-sampling study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kimball, B.; Runkel, R.; Gerner, L.

2001-01-01

Historic mining in Little Cottonwood Canyon in Utah has left behind many mine drainage tunnels that discharge water to Little Cottonwood Creek. To quantify the major sources of mine drainage to the stream, synoptic sampling was conducted during a tracer injection under low flow conditions (September 1998). There were distinct increases in discharge downstream from mine drainage and major tributary inflows that represented the total surface and subsurface contributions. The chemistry of stream water determined from synoptic sampling was controlled by the weathering of carbonate rocks and mine drainage inflows. Buffering by carbonate rocks maintained a high pH throughout the study reach. Most of the metal loading was from four surface-water inflows and three subsurface inflows. The main subsurface inflow was from a mine pool in the Wasatch Tunnel. Natural attenuation of all the metals resulted in the formation of colloidal solids, sorption of some metals, and accumulation onto the streambed. The deposition on the streambed could contribute to chronic toxicity for aquatic organisms. Information from the study will help to make decisions about environmental restoration.

Principal sequence pattern analysis of episodes of excess mortality due to heat in the Barcelona metropolitan area.

PubMed

Peña, Juan Carlos; Aran, Montserrat; Raso, José Miguel; Pérez-Zanón, Nuria

2015-04-01

The aim of the study is to classify the synoptic sequences associated with excess mortality during the warm season in the Barcelona metropolitan area. To achieve this purpose, we undertook a principal sequence pattern analysis that incorporates different atmospheric levels, in an attempt at identifying the main features that account for dynamic and thermodynamic atmospheric processes. The sequence length was determined by the short-term displacement between temperature and mortality. To detect this lag, we applied the cross-correlation function to the residuals obtained from the modelling of the daily temperature and mortality series of summer. These residuals were estimated by means of an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. A 7-day sequence emerged as the basic temporal unit for evaluating the synoptic background that triggers the temperature related to excess mortality in the Barcelona metropolitan area. The principal sequence pattern analysis distinguished three main synoptic patterns: two dynamic configurations produced by southern fluxes related to an Atlantic low, which can be associated with heat waves recorded in southern Europe, and a third pattern identified by a stagnation situation associated with the persistence of a blocking anticyclone over Europe, related to heat waves recorded in northern and central western Europe.

The influence from synoptic weather on the variation of air pollution and pollen exposure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grundström, Maria; Dahl, Åslög; Chen, Deliang; Pleijel, Håkan

2014-05-01

Exposure to elevated air pollution levels can make people more susceptible to allergies or result in more severe allergic reactions for people with an already pronounced sensitivity to pollen. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationships between urban air pollution (nitrogen oxides, ozone and particles) and airborne Betula pollen in Gothenburg, Sweden, during the pollen seasons for the years 2001-2012. Further, the influence from atmospheric weather pattern on pollen/pollution related risk, using Lamb Weather Types (LWT), was also considered. Daily LWTs were obtained by comparing the variation in atmospheric pressure from a 16 point grid over a given region on earth (scale ~1000km) and essentially describe the air mass movement for the region. They include two non-directional types, cyclonic (C) and anticyclonic (A) and eight directional types depending on the wind direction (N, NE, E... etc.). LWTs with dry and calm meteorological character e.g. limited precipitation and low to moderate wind speeds (A, NE, E, SE) were associated with strongly elevated air pollution and pollen levels where Betula was exceptionally high in LWTs NE and E. The co-variation between Betula pollen and ozone was strong and significant during situations with LWTs A, NE, E and SE. The most important conclusion from this study was that LWTs A, NE, E and SE were associated with high pollen and air pollution levels and can therefore be classified as high risk weather situations for combined air pollution and pollen exposure. Our study shows that LWTs have the potential to be developed into an objective tool for integrated air quality forecasting and a warning system for risk of high exposure situations.

Summary of Synoptic Meteorological Observations. Indonesian Coastal Marine Areas. Volume 1. Area 1 - Southeast Sumatra. Area 2 - Christmas Island. Area 3 - Sunda Strait. Area 4 - Northwest Java Sea. Area 5 - Bangka Island Northwest. Area 6 - Natuna Island. Area 7 - Sarawak

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-04-01

AD/ A -006 923 SUMMARY OF SYNOPTIC METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS. INDONESIAN COASTAL MARINE AREAS. VOLUME I. AREA 1 - SOUTHEAST SUMATRA. AREA 2...Weather Service Command Washington, D. C. April 1975 ;V, A DISTRIBUTED BY: Nausm Tsciulca Iufennls Suvm• U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2 z z 0 0 ~ > o CI2LI...00 4 bO >~ d) cn q 00 ca (n~ -0E 4) fl) U C 0 E CD o :Cu -V 0. Cau . .t $4 Cu a X k) 04. " # Cu c.. - u 0- u c0 E Q =E 0 ca- 1 ca 4).,u 04$ = a )E ==r

Precipitation factors leading to arc cloud formation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brundidge, Kenneth C.

1987-01-01

The combined efforts of three graduate students and the principal investigator are presented. Satellite observations and interpretation have become increasingly important in the areas of weather research and operational forecasting. One reason is that geostationary satellite imagery is the only meteorological observing tool that can follow the evolution of clouds from the synoptic scale down to the cumulas scale. Therefore, it can depict atmospheric activity which is up to two orders of magnitude smaller than can be resolved by conventional meteorological observations. This unique ability of the satellite provides the meteorologist a mechanism to infer weather events down to the mesoscale. This evolution is the subject of this report.

WMO summit on exchange of weather data may yield to status quo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wakefield, Julie

A stalemate may seal the stormy debate over the free exchange of weather data at the upcoming Congress of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that begins May 26 in Geneva, U.S. officials say. The central conflict is how to maintain open access for academics while allowing government and industry players to have commercialism.European nations are pushing for a vote on a proposal to develop a two-tiered system for the exchange of international meteorological data. The first-tier data—to include mainly synoptic-scale information—would be freely exchanged internationally; distribution of the second-tier data would be regulated by guidelines established by WMO.

A Survey of Synoptic Waves over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Yuan-Ming; Thorncroft, Chris D.; Kiladis, George N.

2017-04-01

Motivated by the pronounced wave-to-wave variability in African easterly wave (AEW) circulation, the three-dimensional structure of synoptic waves over West Africa is revisited with an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) approach to isolate the dominant wave pattern. In this talk we present results of EOF analyses conducted with brightness temperature (Tb) derived from satellite observation and meridional wind at multiple levels from reanalysis data to examine the characteristics and variability of synoptic waves. The structure of waves is extracted by projecting the wind fields and Tb onto the principle components associated with EOF patterns of appropriately filtered parameters. The Tb EOF shows a confined AEW circulation centered around 7.5°N and a distinct evolution of convection within the wave in line with previous research. However, in striking contrast to the confined flow pattern in the Tb EOF, the EOF of 700-hPa meridional wind is distinguished by a meridionally broad AEW circulation. While the peak in circulation is centered around 10°N, there is marked cross-equatorial flow that is associated with an antisymmetric geopotential signature across the equator. This suggests the presence of a mixed Rossby-gravity wave (MRG) structure consistent with Matsuno's shallow water theory. Granted that the vast majority of studies on MRGs focus on the central and western Pacific region, this "hybrid" between AEWs and MRGs over West Africa and Atlantic sector has received little attention and more work regarding the nature and causes of its wave structure and behavior is needed. In addition, an upper-level synoptic wave is captured by EOFs of 200-hPa meridional wind. The kinematic fields reveal a continental-scale wave straddling the equator that resembles an MRG. This upper-level MRG appears to develop in situ over the Horn of Africa and intensifies as it moves across the continent. The associated lower-level structure shows an AEW-like circulation but with a larger spatial extent. This finding motivates the need for more in-depth investigations of synoptic wave variability over the region including an assessment of the direction of causality between the upper-level MRG and the lower-level AEW. This study highlights the various synoptic wave structures over West Africa and their interaction with AEWs. The results suggest the variability of AEW activity could be modulated by, in addition to the large-scale environment, other synoptic waves in the region. We will pursue the EOF approach to shed light on the characteristics and causes of the variability in synoptic wave activity over West Africa.

Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otero, Noelia Felipe; Sillmann, Jana; Schnell, Jordan L.; Rust, Henning W.; Butler, Tim

2016-04-01

The present work assesses the relationship between local and synoptic meteorological conditions and surface ozone concentration over Europe in spring and summer months, during the period 1998-2012 using a new interpolated data set of observed surface ozone concentrations over the European domain. Along with local meteorological conditions, the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on surface ozone is addressed through a set of airflow indices computed with a novel implementation of a grid-by-grid weather type classification across Europe. Drivers of surface ozone over the full distribution of maximum daily 8-hour average values are investigated, along with drivers of the extreme high percentiles and exceedances or air quality guideline thresholds. Three different regression techniques are applied: multiple linear regression to assess the drivers of maximum daily ozone, logistic regression to assess the probability of threshold exceedances and quantile regression to estimate the meteorological influence on extreme values, as represented by the 95th percentile. The relative importance of the input parameters (predictors) is assessed by a backward stepwise regression procedure that allows the identification of the most important predictors in each model. Spatial patterns of model performance exhibit distinct variations between regions. The inclusion of the ozone persistence is particularly relevant over Southern Europe. In general, the best model performance is found over Central Europe, where the maximum temperature plays an important role as a driver of maximum daily ozone as well as its extreme values, especially during warmer months.

Atmospheric Profiles, Clouds, and the Evolution of Sea Ice Cover in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas: Atmospheric Observations and Modeling as Part of the SeasonalIce Zone Reconnaissance Surveys

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

hired to conduct WRF model experiments. • We conducted Weather Research and Forecast ( WRF ) model simulations for the summer of 2014 and compared with... WRF simulations under different synoptic conditions will help to more 10 clearly identify the deficiencies in the representation of these processes

[Effects of synoptic type on surface ozone pollution in Beijing].

PubMed

Tang, Gui-qian; Li, Xin; Wang, Xiao-ke; Xin, Jin-yuan; Hu, Bo; Wang, Li-li; Ren, Yu-fen; Wang, Yue-Si

2010-03-01

Ozone (O), influenced by meteorological factors, is a primary gaseous photochemical pollutant during summer to fall in Beijing' s urban ambient. Continuous monitoring during July to September in 2008 was carried out at four sites in Beijing. Analyzed with synoptic type, the results show that the ratios of pre-low cylonic (mainly Mongolia cyclone) and pre-high anticylonic to total weather conditions are about 42% and 20%, illustrating the high-and low-ozone episodes, respectively. At the pre-low cylonic conditions, high temperature, low humidity, mountain and valley winds caused by local circulation induce average hourly maximum ozone concentration (volume fraction) up to 102.2 x 10(-9), negative correlated with atmospheric pressure with a slope of -3.4 x 10(-9) Pa(-1). The time of mountain wind changed to valley wind dominates the diurnal time of maximum ozone, generally around 14:00. At the pre-high anticylonic conditions, low temperature, high humidity and systematic north wind induce average hourly maximum ozone concentration (volume fraction) only 49.3 x 10(-9), the diurnal time of maximum ozone is deferred by continuous north wind till about 16:00. The consistency of photochemical pollution in Beijing region shows that good correlation exists between synoptic type and ozone concentration. Therefore, getting an eye on the structure and evolution of synoptic type is of great significances for forecasting the photochemical pollution.

A synoptic climatology of derecho producing mesoscale convective systems in the North-Central Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bentley, Mace L.; Mote, Thomas L.; Byrd, Stephen F.

2000-09-01

Synoptic-scale environments favourable for producing derechos, or widespread convectively induced windstorms, in the North-Central Plains are examined with the goal of providing pattern-recognition/diagnosis techniques. Fifteen derechos were identified across the North-Central Plains region during 1986-1995. The synoptic environment at the initiation, mid-point and decay of each derecho was then evaluated using surface, upper-air and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis datasets.Results suggest that the synoptic environment is critical in maintaining derecho producing mesoscale convective systems (DMCSs). The synoptic environment in place downstream of the MCS initiation region determines the movement and potential strength of the system. Circulation around surface low pressure increased the instability gradient and maximized leading edge convergence in the initiation region of nearly all events regardless of DMCS location or movement. Other commonalities in the environments of these events include the presence of a weak thermal boundary, high convective instability and a layer of dry low-to-mid-tropospheric air. Of the two corridors sampled, northeastward moving derechos tend to initiate east of synoptic-scale troughs, while southeastward moving derechos form on the northeast periphery of a synoptic-scale ridge. Other differences between these two DMCS events are also discussed.

Numerical modeling and analysis of the effect of Greek complex topography on tornado genesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsangouras, I. T.; Pytharoulis, I.; Nastos, P. T.

2014-02-01

Tornadoes have been reported in Greece over the last decades in specific sub-geographical areas and have been associated with strong synoptic forcing. It is well known that meteorological conditions over Greece are affected at various scales by the significant variability of topography, the Ionian Sea at the west and the Aegean Sea at the east. However, there is still uncertainty regarding topography's importance on tornadic generation and development. The aim of this study is to investigate the role of topography in significant tornado genesis events that were triggered under strong synoptic scale forcing over Greece. Three tornado events that occurred over the last years in Thiva (Boeotia, 17 November 2007), Vrastema (Chalkidiki, 12 February 2010) and Vlychos (Lefkada, 20 September 2011) have been selected for numerical experiments. These events were associated with synoptic scale forcing, while their intensity was T4-T5 (Torro scale) and caused significant damage. The simulations were performed using the non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), initialized with ECMWF gridded analyses, with telescoping nested grids that allow the representation of atmospheric circulations ranging from the synoptic scale down to the meso scale. In the experiments the topography of the inner grid was modified by: (a) 0% (actual topography) and (b) -100% (without topography). The aim was to determine whether the occurrence of tornadoes - mainly identified by various severe weather instability indices - could be indicated by modifying topography. The main utilized instability variables concerned the Bulk Richardson number shear (BRN), the energy helicity index (EHI), the storm-relative environmental helicity (SRH) and the maximum convective available potential energy (MCAPE, for parcel with maximum theta-e). Additional a verification of model was conducted for every sensitivity experiment accompanied with analysis absolute vorticity budget. Numerical simulations revealed that the complex topography was denoted as an important factor during 17 November 2007 and 12 February 2010 events, based on EHI and BRN analyses. Topography around 20 September 2011 event was characterized as the least factor based on EHI, SRH, BRN analyses.

Linking storm surge activity and circulation variability along the Spanish coast through a synoptic pattern classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasilla Álvarez, Domingo; Garcia Codrón, Juan Carlos

2010-05-01

The potentially negative consequences resulting from the estimations of global sea level rising along the current century are a matter of serious concern in many coastal areas worldwide. Most of the negative consequences of the sea level variability, such as flooding or erosion, are linked to episodic events of strong atmospheric forcing represented by deep atmospheric disturbances, especially if they combine with extreme astronomical high tides. Moreover, the interaction between the prevailing flows during such events and the actual orientation of the coast line might accelerate or mitigate such impacts. This contribution analyses sea surge variations measured at five tide-gauge stations located around the Iberian Peninsula and their relationships with regional scale circulation patterns with local-scale winds. Its aim is to improve the knowledge of surge related-coastal-risks by analysing the relationship between surges and their atmospheric forcing factors at different spatial scales. The oceanographic data set consists of hourly data from 5 tide gauge stations (Santander, Vigo, Bonanza, Málaga, Valencia and Barcelona) disseminated along the Spanish coastline, provided by Puertos del Estado. To explore the atmospheric mechanisms responsible for the sign and magnitude of sea surges, a regional Eulerian approach (a synoptic typing) were combined with a larger-scale Lagrangian method, based on the analysis of storm-tracks over the Atlantic and local information (synop reports) obtained from the closest meteorological stations to the tide gauges. The synoptic catalogue was obtained following a procedure that combines Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for reduction purposes and clustering (Ward plus K-means) to define the circulation types. Sea level pressure, surface 10m U and V wind components gridded data were obtained from NCEP Reanalysis, while storm tracks and cyclone statistics were extracted from the CDC Map Room Climate Products Storm Track Data (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/st_data.html). The second task was to evaluate the performance of each circulation type on the spatial patterns of a daily fire danger risk index (Canadian Fire Weather Index, FWI). Finally, anomaly maps of several surface and low level climate variables, corresponding to the dates of ignition of the very large forest fires within each synoptic pattern, were calculated to provide insight of the specific conditions associated to those extreme events. A principal component analysis upon 6 hourly residuals highlighted the homogeneous behaviour of the tide gauges and provided a regional quantitative index to identify the largest storm surges. The leading PCA displayed a homogeneous spatial pattern, describing the low frequency variability along the entire coast, in spite of different orientations of the coast, accounting for more than 80% of the total variability. The second PCA displayed opposite phases between the Atlantic and the Mediterranean. Furthermore, the results suggest that surges are a regional rather than local phenomenon, probably related to the same single physical forcing. The comparison between extreme surge events and circulation patterns highlighted that single physical mechanism is represented by extratropical cyclonic disturbances located at the north-western corner of the Iberian Peninsula, responsible for an environment characterized by low pressure readings and westerly-southwesterly winds. That wind pattern acquires an onshore component in the Atlantic coast, but becomes offshore in the Mediterranean. So, the main mechanism responsible for those storm surges is the inverse barometer effect, being the wind dragging secondary. The main physical forcing of the storm surges, the extratropical cyclones, have experience a reduction of this frequency and a marked reduction in their strength since 1950, replaced by stable circulations. Both conditions suggest a long term reduction of the frequency and the magnitude of storm surges.

The life cycles of persistent anomalies and blocking over the North Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dole, Randall M.

1986-01-01

The evolution of persistent anomaly patterns over the central North Pacific is investigated. Composite time evolution fields of the 500-mbar anomaly patterns are constructed from low-pass and unfiltered height anomaly data; the time scales for the development and decay of these persistent anomalies are analyzed. The relationship between zonal flow in the Pacific jet region and the development of the anomaly patterns is examined. The effect of baroclinic instabilities on the development of the anomalies is studied. The vertical structure and synoptic characteristics of the evolution of the anomalies are described. It is noted that the initial rapid growth of the main center may be associated with a propagating, intensifying, synoptic-scale disturbance which originates in the midlatitudes over eastern Asia.

Circulation patterns and wave climate along the coast of the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasilla Álvarez, D.; García Codrán, J. C.

2010-09-01

Evidences of an active erosion (beach retreat, falling cliffs, damaged infrastructures) are observed in many coastal areas around the Iberian Peninsula. Morphogenetic coastal processes result from individual episodes of storminess that can accelerate or mitigate the expected impacts of the global rising trend of average sea levels. Thus, a good understanding of the local forcing processes is required in order to assess the impacts of future sea levels. The spatial and temporal variability of the wave climate along the cost of the Iberian Peninsula and their relationships with regional scale circulation patterns and local-scale winds are the main objectives of this contribution. The oceanographic data set consists of observed hourly data from 7 buoys disseminated along the Spanish coastline, and hindcasted 3-hourly analogous parameters (SIMAR 44 database), provided by Puertos del Estado. Sea level pressure, surface 10m U and V wind components gridded data were obtained from NCEP Reanalysis, while storm tracks and cyclone statistics were extracted from the CDC Map Room Climate Products Storm Track Data (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/st_data.html). The influence of the local conditions was highlighted comparing meteorological data from the buoys and synop reports from coastal stations. To explore the regional atmospheric mechanisms responsible for the wave variability, a regional Eulerian approach (a synoptic typing) were combined with a larger-scale Lagrangian method, based on the analysis of storm-tracks over the area. The synoptic catalogue was obtained following a well-known procedure that combines Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for reduction purposes and clustering (Ward plus K-means) to define the circulation types. As expected, rougher wave climate are observed along the northern and western coast of the Iberian Peninsula, open to the Atlantic storms. The Mediterranean shorelines experiences calmer conditions, although the Gulf of Lions, Catalonian coast and Balearic Islands suffer stormier episodes than Mar de Alborán. Moderate wave power conditions occurred frequently by circulation patterns predominately stable and characterized by weak (mostly sea breezes) winds. Synoptic situations dominated by extra-tropical cyclones produced the highest, but least frequent wave power conditions. Depending on the location of the shorelines, three types of storm events are defined: 1. Long winds fetch and locally strong westerly and northwesterly winds expose the northern coast of Iberia to episodes of intense storminess. Extratropical disturbances tracking between the 50-60°N parallels are the main forcing mechanism of those episodes, many of them result of a cyclogenesis processes along the eastern coast of North America. In some cases, the systems evolves as a secondary cyclon, crossing the area southward of the 50°N parallel; significant wave heights can be as high as the northernmost cyclones, but the wave period is slightly lower. 2.Cyclones tracking along the 40°N parallel bring stormy conditions to the western coast and the Gulf of Cádiz area, associated to southwesterly winds. 3. Finally, the Mediterranean shoreline suffer the worst conditions during easterly and northeasterly wind events, usually dominanted by local disturbances formed along the Western Mediterranean basin. Trends observed on the different circulation patterns can explain the temporal evolution of the wave climate along the Spanish coast, characterized by calmer conditions on the south and an increase of the wave period on the north, without discernible wave height trend. The overall results indicated that this synoptic climatological approach provides a viable framework to establish and examine links between weather systems and wave conditions.

Modeling studies on the formation of Hurricane Helene: the impact of GPS dropwindsondes from the NAMMA 2006 field campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Folmer, Michael J.; Pasken, Robert W.; Chiao, Sen; Dunion, Jason; Halverson, Jeffrey

2016-12-01

Numerical simulations, using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model in concert with GPS dropwindsondes released during the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses 2006 Field Campaign, were conducted to provide additional insight on SAL-TC interaction. Using NCEP Final analysis datasets to initialize the WRF, a sensitivity test was performed on the assimilated (i.e., observation nudging) GPS dropwindsondes to understand the effects of individual variables (i.e., moisture, temperature, and winds) on the simulation and determine the extent of improvement when compared to available observations. The results suggested that GPS dropwindsonde temperature data provided the most significant difference in the simulated storm organization, storm strength, and synoptic environment, but all of the variables assimilated at the same time give a more representative mesoscale and synoptic picture.

An Israeli haboob: Sea breeze activating local anthropogenic dust sources in the Negev loess

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crouvi, Onn; Dayan, Uri; Amit, Rivka; Enzel, Yehouda

2017-02-01

Meso-scale weather systems, such as convective haboobs, are considered to be an important dust generation mechanism. In Israel, however, rather than of meso-scale weather systems, most dust storms are generated by synoptic-scale systems, originating from Sahara and Arabia. Consequently, only distal sources of suspended and deposited dust in Israel are currently reported. Here we report the first detailed study on the merging of synoptic- and meso-scale weather systems leading to a prominent dust outbreak over the Negev, Israel. During the afternoon of May 2nd, 2007, a massive dust storm covered the northern Negev, forming a one kilometer high wall of dust. The haboob was associated with PM10 concentrations of 1000-1500 μg m-3 that advanced at a speed of 10-15 m s-1 and caused temporary closure of local airports. In contrast to most reported haboobs, this one was generated by a sea breeze front acting as a weak cold front enhanced by a cold core cyclone positioned over Libya and Egypt. The sea breeze that brought cold and moist marine air acted as a gravity current with strong surface winds. The sources for the haboob were the loessial soils of the northwestern Negev, especially agricultural fields that were highly disturbed in late spring to early summer. Such surface disturbance is caused by agricultural and/or intensive grazing practices. Our study emphasizes the importance of local dust sources in the Negev and stresses loess recycling as an important process in contemporary dust storms over Israel.

Extratropical Cyclogenesis and Frontal Waves on Mars: Influences on Dust, Weather and the Planet's climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, J. L.; Kahre, Melinda A.

2012-01-01

Between late autumn and early spring, middle and high latitudes on Mars exhibit strong equatortopole mean temperature contrasts (i.e., "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic periodwaves) [1,2]. For a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, these large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. The wavelike disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum between low and high latitudes of the planet. Through cyclonic/anticyclonic winds, intense shear deformations, contractions-dilatations in temperature and density, and sharp perturbations amongst atmospheric tracers (i.e., dust, volatiles (e.g., water vapor) and condensates (e.g., water-ice cloud particles)), Mars extratropical weather systems have significant subsynoptic scale ramifications by supporting atmospheric frontal waves (Fig. 1).

Atmospheric Profiles, Clouds, and the Evolution of Sea Ice Cover in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas: Atmospheric Observations and Modeling as Part of the Seasonal Ice Zone Reconnaissance Surveys

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

to conduct WRF model experiments.  We conducted Weather Research and Forecast ( WRF ) model simulations for the summer of 2014 and compared with the...level winds might be more important forcing for sea ice. In addition, evaluation of Polar- WRF simulations under different synoptic conditions will help

Gravity Wave Variances and Propagation Derived from AIRS Radiances

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-04-15

synoptically warm condition and susequently affect ozone depletion (Hamill and Toon, 1991). The importance of gravity waves on climate and weather... troposphere to upper stratosphere can those GWs grow into significant strengths. Locations of high occurrence of convectively generated GWs are also...maximum comes in one month later. A close look at the vertical config- uration of the zonal wind reveals that tropospheric westerlies in the SH high

Mesoscale and synoptic scale features of North Pacific weather systems observed with the scanning multichannel microwave radiometer on Nimbus 7

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Katsaros, K. B.; Lewis, R. M.

1986-01-01

Employing data on integrated atmospheric water vapor, total cloud liquid water and rain rate obtainable from the Nimbus 7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR), the frontal structure of several mid-latitude cyclones over the North Pacific Ocean as they approach the West Coast of North America in the winter of 1979. The fronts, analyzed with all available independent data, are consistently located at the leading edge of the strongest gradient in integrated water vapor. The cloud liquid water content, which unfortunately has received very little in situ verification, has patterns which are consistent with the structure seen in visible and infrared imagery. The rain distribution is also a good indicator of frontal location and rain amounts are generally within a factor of two of what is observed with rain gauges on the coast. Furthermore, the onset of rain on the coast can often be accurately forecast by simple advection of the SMMR observed rain areas.

Synoptic analysis of heat waves in the Barcelona city (Catalonia, Spain) during 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amaro, Jéssica; Peña, Juan Carlos; Miró, Josep Ramon; Aran, Montserrat

2017-04-01

The impact of extremely warm episodes on health has been analysed by a large number of studies conducted in different countries and cities, showing that heat waves events (HWE) can cause an abrupt increase in mortality. A HWE was defined as a 7-day sequence following a key-day labelled by the 95th percentile of Barcelona daily mortality (see Peña et al., 2015). The aim of this study is to identify synoptic patterns associated to HWE in Barcelona over the 21st century and evaluate the impact and possible mitigations. To achieve it, a multivariate analysis (MVA) integrating different atmospheric levels (sea level pressure, temperature at 850 hPa and geopotential at 500 hPa) was undertaken. The observed data used for this study was the 20th Century Reanalysis. The Max Planck Institute Earth system model was used to study two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) during the 21st century. The model was calibrated given the variability in the climate scenario, using the Quantile-Quantile mapping transformation (Q-Q). The MVA applied to the observed period (1990-2015) distinguish three main synoptic patterns: two dynamic configurations produced by southern fluxes related to an Atlantic low, associated with HWE recorded in southern Europe, and a third pattern identified by a stagnation situation related to persistent anticyclone periods. These patterns were also detected in the control simulated period (1961-2005) after the Q-Q calibration, preserving, therefore, the climatic variability: the number of HWE during the warm period (1990-2005) is twice more than during the cold period (1976-1989) due to an intensification of the warm masses. In the RCP 4.5 scenario (2006-2100 period) a positive and significant trend is shown in synoptic patterns which provoke HWE in Barcelona, especially during August; in the RCP 8.5 scenario there is no significant trend, but the intensification of the warm masses is higher.

Comparison of Weather Shows in Eastern Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najman, M.

2009-09-01

Comparison of Weather Shows in Eastern Europe Television weather shows in Eastern Europe have in most cases in the high graphical standard. There is though a wast difference in duration and information content in the weather shows. There are few signs and regularities by which we can see the character of the weather show. The main differences are mainly caused by the income structure of the TV station. Either it is a fully privately funded TV relying on the TV commercials income. Or it is a public service TV station funded mainly by the national budget or fixed fee structure/tax. There are wast differences in duration and even a graphical presentation of the weather. Next important aspect is a supplier of the weather information and /or the processor. Shortly we can say, that when the TV show is produced by the national met office, the TV show consists of more scientific terms, synoptic maps, satellite imagery, etc. If the supplier is the private meteorological company, the weather show is more user-friendly, laical with less scientific terms. We are experiencing a massive shift in public weather knowledge and demand for information. In the past, weather shows consisted only of maps with weather icons. In todaýs world, even the laic weather shows consist partly of numerical weather model outputs - they are of course designed to be understandable and graphically attractive. Outputs of the numerical weather models used to be only a part of daily life of a professional meteorologist, today they are common part of life of regular people. Video samples are a part of this presentation.

Evaluating synoptic systems in the CMIP5 climate models over the Australian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibson, Peter B.; Uotila, Petteri; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Pitman, Andrew J.

2016-10-01

Climate models are our principal tool for generating the projections used to inform climate change policy. Our confidence in projections depends, in part, on how realistically they simulate present day climate and associated variability over a range of time scales. Traditionally, climate models are less commonly assessed at time scales relevant to daily weather systems. Here we explore the utility of a self-organizing maps (SOMs) procedure for evaluating the frequency, persistence and transitions of daily synoptic systems in the Australian region simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models. In terms of skill in simulating the climatological frequency of synoptic systems, large spread was observed between models. A positive association between all metrics was found, implying that relative skill in simulating the persistence and transitions of systems is related to skill in simulating the climatological frequency. Considering all models and metrics collectively, model performance was found to be related to model horizontal resolution but unrelated to vertical resolution or representation of the stratosphere. In terms of the SOM procedure, the timespan over which evaluation was performed had some influence on model performance skill measures, as did the number of circulation types examined. These findings have implications for selecting models most useful for future projections over the Australian region, particularly for projections related to synoptic scale processes and phenomena. More broadly, this study has demonstrated the utility of the SOMs procedure in providing a process-based evaluation of climate models.

Comparison of WRF local and nonlocal boundary layer Physics in Greater Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ooi, M. C. G.; Chan, A.; Kumarenthiran, S.; Morris, K. I.; Oozeer, M. Y.; Islam, M. A.; Salleh, S. A.

2018-02-01

The urban boundary layer (UBL) is the internal advection layer of atmosphere above urban region which determines the exchanges of momentum, water and other atmospheric constituents between the urban land surface and the free troposphere. This paper tested the performance of three planetary boundary layer (PBL) physics schemes of Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) software to ensure the appropriate representation of vertical structure of UBL in Greater Kuala Lumpur (GKL). Comparison was conducted on the performance of respective PBL schemes to generate vertical and near-surface weather profile and rainfall. Mellor-Yamada- Janjíc (MYJ) local PBL scheme coupled with Eta MM5 surface layer scheme was found to predict the near-surface temperature and wind profile and mixing height better than the nonlocal schemes during the intermonsoonal period with least influences of the synoptic background weather.

Simulation of localized heavy precipitation in South Korea on 20 June 2014: sensitivity test of integration time-step size and an effect of topographic resolution using WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roh, Joon-Woo; Jee, Joon-Bum; Lim, A.-Young; Choi, Young-Jean

2015-04-01

Korean warm-season rainfall, accounting for about three-fourths of the annual precipitation, is primarily caused by Changma front, which is a kind of the East Asian summer monsoon, and localized heavy rainfall with convective instability. Various physical mechanisms potentially exert influences on heavy precipitation over South Korea. Representatively, the middle latitude and subtropical weather fronts, associated with a quasi-stationary moisture convergence zone among varying air masses, make up one of the main rain-bearing synoptic scale systems. Localized heavy rainfall events in South Korea generally arise from mesoscale convective systems embedded in these synoptic scale disturbances along the Changma front or convective instabilities resulted from unstable air mass including the direct or indirect effect of typhoons. In recent years, torrential rainfalls, which are more than 30mm/hour of precipitation amount, in warm-season has increased threefold in Seoul, which is a metropolitan city in South Korea. In order to investigate multiple potential causes of warm-season localized heavy precipitation in South Korea, a localized heavy precipitation case took place on 20 June 2014 at Seoul. This case was mainly seen to be caused by short-wave trough, which is associated with baroclinic instability in the northwest of Korea, and a thermal low, which has high moist and warm air through analysis. This structure showed convective scale torrential rain was embedded in the dynamic and in the thermodynamic structures. In addition to, a sensitivity of rainfall amount and maximum rainfall location to the integration time-step sizes was investigated in the simulations of a localized heavy precipitation case using Weather Research and Forecasting model. The simulation of time-step sizes of 9-27s corresponding to a horizontal resolution of 4.5km and 1.5km varied slightly difference of the maximum rainfall amount. However, the sensitivity of spatial patterns and temporal variations in rainfall were relatively small for the time-step sizes. The effect of topography was also important in the localized heavy precipitation simulation.

An index of anomalous convective instability to detect tornadic and hail storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Weihong; Leung, Jeremy Cheuk-Hin; Luo, Weimeng; Du, Jun; Gao, Jidong

2017-12-01

In this article, the synoptic-scale spatial structures for raising tornadic and hail storms are compared by analyzing the total and anomalous variable fields from the troposphere to the stratosphere. 15 cases of tornado outbreaks and 20 cases of hail storms that occurred in the central United States during 1980-2011 were studied. The anomalous temperature-height field shows that a tornadic or hail storm usually occurs at the boundary of anomalous warm and cold air masses horizontally in the troposphere. In one side, an anomalous warm air mass in the mid-low troposphere and an anomalous cold air mass in the stratosphere are vertically separated by a positive center of height anomalies at the upper troposphere. In another side, an opposite vertical pattern shows that an anomalous cold air mass in the mid-low troposphere and an anomalous warm air mass in the stratosphere are separated by a negative center of height anomalies at the upper troposphere. Therefore, two pairs of adjacent anomalous warm/cold centers and one pair of anomalous high/low centers combining together form a major tornadic or hail storm paradigm, which can be physically considered as the storage of anomalous potential energy (APE) to generate severe weather. To quantitatively measure the APE, we define an index of anomalous convective instability (ACI) which is a difference of integrating temperature anomalies based on two vertically opposite anomalous air masses. The APE transformation to anomalous kinetic energy, which reduces horizontal and vertical gradients of temperature anomalies, produces anomalous rising and sinking flows in the lower-layer anomalous warm and cold air mass sides, respectively. The intensity of ACI index for tornadic storm cases is 1.5 times larger than that of hail storm cases in average. Thus, this expression of anomalous variables is better than total variables used in the traditional synoptic chart and the ACI index is better than other indices to detect potential tornadic and hail storms in order to understand the environmental conditions affecting severe weather in analytical and model output datasets.

Satellite and airborne oil spill remote sensing: State of the art and application to the BP DeepWater Horizon oil spill

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leifer, I.; Clark, R.; Jones, C.; Holt, B.; Svejkovsky, J.; Swayze, G.

2011-01-01

The vast, persistent, and unconstrained oil release from the DeepWater Horizon (DWH) challenged the spill response, which required accurate quantitative oil assessment at synoptic and operational scales. Experienced observers are the mainstay of oil spill response. Key limitations are weather, scene illumination geometry, and few trained observers, leading to potential observer bias. Aiding the response was extensive passive and active satellite and airborne remote sensing, including intelligent system augmentation, reviewed herein. Oil slick appearance strongly depends on many factors like emulsion composition and scene geometry, yielding false positives and great thickness uncertainty. Oil thicknesses and the oil to water ratios for thick slicks were derived quantitatively with a new spectral library approach based on the shape and depth of spectral features related to C-H vibration bands. The approach used near infrared, imaging spectroscopy data from the AVIRIS (Airborne Visual/InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer) instrument on the NASA ER-2 stratospheric airplane. Extrapolation to the total slick used MODIS satellite visual-spectrum broadband data, which observes sunglint reflection from surface slicks; i.e., indicates the presence of oil and/or surfactant slicks. Oil slick emissivity is less than seawater's allowing MODIS thermal infrared (TIR) nighttime identification; however, water temperature variations can cause false positives. Some strong emissivity features near 6.7 and 9.7 ??m could be analyzed as for the AVIRIS short wave infrared features, but require high spectral resolution data. TIR spectral trends can allow fresh/weathered oil discrimination. Satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SSAR) provided synoptic data under all-sky conditions by observing oil dampening of capillary waves; however, SSAR typically cannot discriminate thick from thin oil slicks. Airborne UAVSAR's significantly greater signal-to-noise ratio and fine spatial resolution allowed successful mapping of oil slick thickness-related patterns. Laser induced fluorescence (LIF) can quantify oil thicknesses by Raman scattering line distortions, but saturates for >20-??m thick oil and depends on oil optical characteristics and sea state. Combined with laser bathymetry LIF can provide submerged oil remote sensing.

Global Autocorrelation Scales of the Partial Pressure of Oceanic CO2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Zhen; Adamec, David; Takahashi, Taro; Sutherland, Stewart C.

2004-01-01

A global database of approximately 1.7 million observations of the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in surface ocean waters (pCO2) collected between 1970 and 2003 is used to estimate its spatial autocorrelation structure. The patterns of the lag distance where the autocorrelation exceeds 0.8 is similar to patterns in the spatial distribution of the first baroclinic Rossby radius of deformation indicating that ocean circulation processes play a significant role in determining the spatial variability of pCO2. For example, the global maximum of the distance at which autocorrelations exceed 0.8 averages about 140 km in the equatorial Pacific. Also, the lag distance at which the autocorrelation exceed 0.8 is greater in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream than it is near the Kuroshio, approximately 50 km near the Gulf Stream as opposed to 20 km near the Kuroshio. Separate calculations for times when the sun is north and south of the equator revealed no obvious seasonal dependence of the spatial autocorrelation scales. The pCO2 measurements at Ocean Weather Station (OWS) 'P', in the eastern subarctic Pacific (50 N, 145 W) is the only fixed location where an uninterrupted time series of sufficient length exists to calculate a meaningful temporal autocorrelation function for lags greater than a few days. The estimated temporal autocorrelation function at OWS 'P', is highly variable. A spectral analysis of the longest four pCO2 time series indicates a high level of variability occurring over periods from the atmospheric synoptic to the maximum length of the time series, in this case 42 days. It is likely that a relative peak in variability with a period of 3-6 days is related to atmospheric synoptic period variability and ocean mixing events due to wind stirring. However, the short length of available time series makes identifying temporal relationships between pCO2 and atmospheric or ocean processes problematic.

Synoptic moisture pathways associated with mean and extreme precipitation over Canada for winter and spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, X.; Gan, T. Y. Y.; Chen, Y. D.

2017-12-01

Dominant synoptic moisture pathway patterns of vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) in winter and spring over Canada West and East were identified using the self-organizing map method. Large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) were related to the variability in seasonal precipitation totals and occurrences of precipitation extremes. Changes in both occurrences of LSMPs and seasonal precipitation occurred under those LSMPs were evaluated to attribute observed changes in seasonal precipitation totals and occurrences of precipitation extremes. Effects of large-scale climate anomalies on occurrences of LSMPs were also examined. Results show that synoptic moisture pathways and LSMPs exhibit the propagation of jet streams as the location and direction of ridges and troughs, and the strength and center of pressure lows and highs varied considerably between LSMPs. Significant decreases in occurrences of synoptic moisture pathway patterns that are favorable with positive precipitation anomalies and more precipitation extremes in winter over Canada West resulted in decreases in seasonal precipitation and occurrences of precipitation extremes. LSMPs resulting in a hot and dry climate and less (more) frequent precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairies in winter and northwestern Canada in spring are more likely to occur in years with a negative phase of PNA. Occurrences of LSMPs for a wet climate and frequent occurrences of extreme precipitation events over southeastern Canada are associated with a positive phase of NAO. In El Niño years or negative PDO years, LSMPs associated with a dry climate and less frequent precipitation extremes over western Canada tend to occur.

The remote sensing needs of Arctic geophysics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, W. J.

1970-01-01

The application of remote sensors for obtaining geophysical information of the Arctic regions is discussed. Two significant requirements are to acquire sequential, synoptic imagery of the Arctic Ocean during all weather and seasons and to measure the strains in the sea ice canopy and the heterogeneous character of the air and water stresses acting on the canopy. The acquisition of geophysical data by side looking radar and microwave sensors in military aircraft is described.

Surface Observation Climatic Summaries (SOCS) for K. I. Sawyer AFB, Michigan

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-03-01

OPERATING LOCATION A, USkFfTAC 6C. -ADDRESS: FEDERAL BUJILDING, ASHEVILLE, NC 28801-2723 11. TITLE: SURFACE OBSERVAT ION CLIMAAT -ICSUM-MARIEfS (SMCS...MENT, 09 REASON FfR CHANGE TRANSMITTER RECORDER GROUND ---- ------------------------------------------------------ AN/GMO-I ML-204A 83 FT 4 TAT~4Y A...WEATHER STATION. NhTE : R1FPORTING PRACTICESHAVE CHANGED WITH TIME. METAR AND SYNOPTIC REPORTING STATIONS RECORD (ON AWS FORMS 10/IDA) AND TRANSMIT

Atmospheric conditions during high ragweed pollen concentrations in Zagreb, Croatia.

PubMed

Prtenjak, Maja Telišman; Srnec, Lidija; Peternel, Renata; Madžarević, Valentina; Hrga, Ivana; Stjepanović, Barbara

2012-11-01

We examined the atmospheric conditions favourable to the occurrence of maximum concentrations of ragweed pollen with an extremely high risk of producing allergy. Over the 2002-2009 period, daily pollen data collected in Zagreb were used to identify two periods of high pollen concentration (> 600 grains/m(3)) for our analysis: period A (3-4 September 2002) and period B (6-7 September 2003). Synoptic conditions in both periods were very similar: Croatia was under the influence of a lower sector high pressure system moving slowly eastward over Eastern Europe. During the 2002-2009 period, this type of weather pattern (on ~ 70% of days), in conjunction with almost non-gradient surface pressure conditions in the area (on ~ 30% of days) characterised days when the daily pollen concentrations were higher than 400 grains/m(3). Numerical experiments using a mesoscale model at fine resolution showed successful multi-day simulations reproducing the local topographic influence on wind flow and in reasonable agreement with available observations. According to the model, the relatively weak synoptic flow (predominantly from the eastern direction) allowed local thermal circulations to develop over Zagreb during both high pollen episodes. Two-hour pollen concentrations and 48-h back-trajectories indicated that regional-range transport of pollen grains from the central Pannonian Plain was the cause of the high pollen concentrations during period A. During period B, the north-westward regional-range transport in Zagreb was supplemented significantly by pronounced horizontal recirculation of pollen grains. This recirculation happened within the diurnal local circulation over the city, causing a late-evening increase in pollen concentration.

Atmospheric conditions during high ragweed pollen concentrations in Zagreb, Croatia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prtenjak, Maja Telišman; Srnec, Lidija; Peternel, Renata; Madžarević, Valentina; Hrga, Ivana; Stjepanović, Barbara

2012-11-01

We examined the atmospheric conditions favourable to the occurrence of maximum concentrations of ragweed pollen with an extremely high risk of producing allergy. Over the 2002-2009 period, daily pollen data collected in Zagreb were used to identify two periods of high pollen concentration (> 600 grains/m3) for our analysis: period A (3-4 September 2002) and period B (6-7 September 2003). Synoptic conditions in both periods were very similar: Croatia was under the influence of a lower sector high pressure system moving slowly eastward over Eastern Europe. During the 2002-2009 period, this type of weather pattern (on ~ 70% of days), in conjunction with almost non-gradient surface pressure conditions in the area (on ~ 30% of days) characterised days when the daily pollen concentrations were higher than 400 grains/m3. Numerical experiments using a mesoscale model at fine resolution showed successful multi-day simulations reproducing the local topographic influence on wind flow and in reasonable agreement with available observations. According to the model, the relatively weak synoptic flow (predominantly from the eastern direction) allowed local thermal circulations to develop over Zagreb during both high pollen episodes. Two-hour pollen concentrations and 48-h back-trajectories indicated that regional-range transport of pollen grains from the central Pannonian Plain was the cause of the high pollen concentrations during period A. During period B, the north-westward regional-range transport in Zagreb was supplemented significantly by pronounced horizontal recirculation of pollen grains. This recirculation happened within the diurnal local circulation over the city, causing a late-evening increase in pollen concentration.

Synoptic aspects of Antarctic mesocyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carleton, Andrew M.; Fitch, Mark

1993-07-01

The characteristic regimes (formation and dissipation areas, tracks) and synoptic environments of cold air mesocyclones over Antarctic and Subantarctic latitudes are determined for the contrasting winters (June, July, and August) of 1988 and 1989. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) thermal infrared (IR) imagery is used in conjunction with southern hemisphere pressure/height analyses. Outbreaks of mesocyclones ("active periods") are frequent in the Ross Sea sector in 1988. They are associated most often with areas of maximum horizontal gradient of the 1000- to 500-mbar thickness. Over higher latitudes of the Southeast Pacific in 1989, mesocyclones develop in association with a "cold pool" that migrates equatorward. The between-winter differences in mesocyclone frequencies are examined for associations with sea ice conditions and the continental katabatic winds using correlation and "superposed epoch" analysis of temperature data from selected automatic weather stations (AWSs). The results support a katabatic wind-sea ice extent-mesocyclone link for key sectors of the Antarctic.

Synoptic Drivers of Precipitation in the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, L.; Hudson, S.; Graham, R.; Renwick, J. A.

2017-12-01

Precipitation in the Arctic has been shown to be increasing in recent decades, from both observational and modelling studies, with largest trends seen in autumn and winter. This trend is attributed to a combination of the warming atmosphere and reduced sea ice extent. The seasonality of precipitation in the Arctic is important as it largely determines whether the precipitation falls as snow or rain. This study assesses the spatial and temporal variability of the synoptic drivers of precipitation in the Atlantic (European) sector of the Arctic. This region of the Arctic is of particular interest as it has the largest inter-annual variability in sea ice extent and is the primary pathway for moisture transport into the Arctic from lower latitudes. This study uses the ECMWF ERA-I reanalysis total precipitation to compare to long-term precipitation observations from Ny Ålesund, Svalbard to show that the reanalysis captures the synoptic variability of precipitation well and that most precipitation in this region is synoptically driven. The annual variability of precipitation in the Atlantic Arctic shows strong regionality. In the Svalbard and Barents Sea region, most of the annual total precipitation occurs during autumn and winter (Oct-Mar) (>60% of annual total), while the high-Arctic (> 80N) and Kara Sea receives most of the annual precipitation ( 60% of annual total) during summer (July-Sept). Using a synoptic classification developed for this region, this study shows that winter precipitation is driven by winter cyclone occurrence, with strong correlations to the AO and NAO indices. High precipitation over Svalbard is also strongly correlated with the Scandinavian blocking pattern, which produces a southerly flow in the Greenland Sea/Svalbard area. An increasing occurrence of these synoptic patterns are seen for winter months (Nov and Jan), which may explain much of the observed winter increase in precipitation.

Objective local weather types with applications on urban air pollution and on mortality with chronicle illnesses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mika, Janos; Ivady, Anett; Fulop, Andrea; Makra, László

2010-05-01

Synoptic climatology i.e. classification of the endless variability of the everyday weather states according to the pressure configuration and frontal systems relative to the point, or region of interest has long history in meteorology. Its logical alternative, i.e. classification of weather according to the observed local weather elements was less popular until the recent times when the numerical weather forecasts became able to outline not only the synoptic situation, but the near-surface meteorological variables, as well. Nowadays the computer-based statistical facilities are able to operate with matrices of multivariate diurnal samples, as well. The paper presents an attempt to define a set of local weather types using point-wise series at five rural stations, Szombathely, Pécs, Budapest, Szeged és Debrecen in the 1961-1990 reference period. Ten local variables are used, i.e. the diurnal mean temperature, the diurnal temperature range; the cloudiness, the sunshine duration, the water vapour pressure, the precipitation in a logarithmic scale, also differing trace (below 0.1 mm) and no precipitation, the relative humidity and wind speed, including the more extremity indicators of the two latter parameters, i.e. number of hours with over 80 % relative humidity and over 15 m/s wind gusts. Factor analysis of these ten variables was performed leading to 5 fairly independent variables retained for cluster analysis to obtain the local weather types. Hierarchical cluster analysis was performed to classify the 840-930 days within each month of the 30 years period. Furthers neighbour approach was preferred based on Euclidean metrics to establish optimum number of types. The 12 months and the 5 stations exhibited slightly different results but the optimum number of the types was always between 4 and 12 which is a quite reasonable number from practical considerations. According to a further reasonable compromise, the common number of the types not too bad in either stations or months defines that the common optimum number of local weather types is nine. This set of weather types, specified for each station, was used to "explain" the possible portion of local inter-diurnal variance of seven daily urban air quality measurements, i.e. CO, NO, NO2, NOx, O3, SO2 and PM10. Another set of data for testing the types are the mortalities with chronicle illnesses, i.e. cardio-vascular and respiratory illnesses. This set of 35 years data (1971-2005) is layered for capital city (Budapest, 2 million inhabitants) and rest of the countries (max. 200 000 inhab.). The use of complex weather types is likely better than the common use of individual weather elements, e.g. diurnal mean temperature or a kind of bioclimatic index. The ability of the types to decrease the variability is also compared for both sets of target variables to the analogous ability of macrosynoptic classification by Peczely. The results are also discussed by grouping the investigated contaminants according to their origin.

Assessment of the Performance of a Scanning Wind Doppler Lidar at an Urban-Mountain Site in Seoul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, S.; Kim, S. W.

2017-12-01

Winds in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) are important factors for accurate modelling of air quality, numerical weather prediction and conversion of satellite measurements to near-surface air quality information (Seibert et al., AE, 2000; Emeis et al., Meteorol. Z., 2008). In this study, we (1) evaluate wind speed (WS) and direction (WD) retrieved from Wind Doppler Lidar (WDL) measurements by two methods [so called, `sine-fitting (SF) method' and `singular value decomposition (SVD) method'] and (2) analyze the WDL data at Seoul National University (SNU), Seoul, to investigate the diurnal evolution of winds and aerosol characteristics in PBL. Evaluation of the two methods used in retrieving wind from radial velocity was done through comparison with radiosonde soundings from the same site. Winds retrieved using the SVD method from mean radial velocity of 15 minutes showed good agreement with radiosonde profiles (i.e., bias of 0.03 m s-1 and root mean square of 1.70 m s-1 in WS). However, the WDL was found to have difficulty retrieving signals under clean conditions (i.e., too small signal to noise ratio) or under the presence of near-surface optically-thick aerosol/cloud layer (i.e., strong signal attenuation). Despite this shortcoming, the WDL was able to successfully capture the diurnal variation of PBL wind. Two major wind patterns were observed at SNU; first of all, when convective boundary layer was strongly developed, thermally induced winds with large variation of vertical WS in the afternoon and a diurnal variation in WD showing characteristics of mountain and valley winds were observed. Secondly, small variation in WS and WD throughout the day was a major characteristic of cases when wind was largely influenced by the synoptic weather pattern.

Impact of a warm core eddy on near-surface wind at Brazil-Malvinas Confluence region in high resolution simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hackerott, J. A.; Mesquita, M. D. S.; Camargo, R. D.; Pezzi, L. P.

2014-12-01

Several studies show that near surface winds acquire anticyclonic (cyclonic) vorticity and accelerate (decelerate) when flow in the same direction as positive (negative) orientation of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) gradient. Many of them were made over different oceanic thermal fronts in the world analyzing contrasts in SST gradients. However, still remains much uncertainty about how strong is this wind modulation, particularly on areas in need of studies and in-situ data, such as the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence Region (BMC) where intense SST gradients are found. This study brings results of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations, configured with nested grids, where it is compared the influence of distinct synoptic patterns observed at BMC where three different SST patterns are imposed to WRF. These patterns are: (1) with a typical smoothed SST field, named as Control; (2) Small Eddy, which is the same as Control but adding an eddy of 1° radius and a +2°C amplitude; and (3) Intense Eddy, which is also the same as Control, but where an eddy of 1° radius and +4°C amplitude is added. The artificial imposed eddy is analogous to the SST patterns observed at BMC, with different intensities. The simulations were integrated for 76 hours using initial and lateral boundary conditions from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model with 0.5° resolution. The results showed that the wind at 10m height is influenced by the diurnal cycle of turbulence in the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL) modified by variations in SST. The wind magnitude changes up to 1m.s-1 over a 4/50°C.km-1 SST gradient and 0.6m.s-1 over a 2/50°C.km-1 SST gradient. This effect generates meso-scale disturbances that propagate to larger scales leading to disturbances in remote areas. Thus, the preliminary analyses are suggesting that there is an interaction between the meso and synoptic scale playing a role. Mechanisms such this one might not be captured by atmospheric global models used in low spatial resolution. Often, that is the case seen on operational models.

Visualizing a possible atmospheric teleconnection associated with UK floods in autumn 2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pall, P.; Bensema, K.; Stone, D.; Wehner, M. F.; Bethel, W.; Joy, K.

2012-12-01

Severe floods occurred across England and Wales during the record-wet autumn of the year 2000. Recently Pall et al. (2011) demonstrated that the risk of such floods occurring at that time substantially increased as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, and that the synoptic weather system associated with the floods was a common but anomalously strong 'Scandinavia' atmospheric circulation pattern (a Rossby-wave-like train of tropospheric anomalies in geopotential height, extending from the subtropical Atlantic across Eurasia, with a cyclone over the UK and a strong anticyclone over Scandinavia). Blackburn and Hoskins (2001) suggest that this pattern was itself catalyzed by an anomalous upper-tropospheric flow of air: originating with an ascent of air due to convection over warm sea surface temperatures in the western Tropical Pacific, and ending in a descent of air over the Amazon in the proposed source region of the Scandinavia pattern. However, evidence for this so-called 'teleconnection' is not entirely clear in the idealised climate models they used. Here we use visualization techniques to search for this teleconnection in the simulations generated with the more comprehensive seasonal-forecast-resolution climate model of Pall et al. (2011) -- by identifying anomalous streamflow patterns and using the UV-CDAT software developed at Berkeley Lab to do so. Furthermore, since several thousand simulations were generated (in order to capture the rare flood event), totaling hundreds of GB in size, we use paralleisation techniques to perform this search efficiently.

Environmental Composites for Bomb Cyclones of the Western North Atlantic in Reanalysis, 1948-2016.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, R.; Sheridan, S. C.

2017-12-01

"Bomb" cyclones represent a small subset of mid-latitude cyclones characterized by rapid intensification and frequently are associated with extreme weather conditions along the eastern coast of North America. Like other extreme phenomena, bomb cyclone predictions are prone to error leading to inadequate or untimely hazard warnings. The rare nature of bomb cyclones and the uniqueness of their evolutions has made it difficult for researchers to make meaningful generalizations on bomb cyclone events. This paper describes bomb cyclone climatology for the western North Atlantic, using data from the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis for 1948-2016, and uses a synoptic climatological analysis to relate these bombs to their associated atmospheric environments. A self-organizing map (SOM) of 300-hPa geopotential height tendency is created to partition the regional atmospheric environment. Thermodynamic fields are contrasted by each 300-hPa geopotential height tendency pattern for both bomb and non-bomb events in composite difference maps. The SOM patterns most significantly associated with western North Atlantic bomb cyclogenesis are characterized by both strongly and weakly negative height tendencies along the eastern United States. In both cases, these patterns exhibit strong meridional flow, a distinction marked by the weakening and breaking down of the polar vortex in the boreal Winter. The composite maps for each pattern show the mean differences in low-mid level ascent and near surface thermodynamics for bomb environments contrasted with non-bomb environments, resulting in diverse spatiotemporal distributions of bombs in the western North Atlantic.

Bomb Cyclones Of The Western North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, Ryan E.

"Bomb" cyclones represent a small subset of mid-latitude cyclones characterized by rapid intensification and frequently are associated with extreme weather conditions along the eastern coast of North America. Like other extreme phenomena, bomb cyclone predictions are prone to error leading to inadequate or untimely hazard warnings. The rare nature of bomb cyclones and the uniqueness of their evolutions has made it difficult for researchers to make meaningful generalizations on bomb cyclone events. This paper describes bomb cyclone climatology for the western North Atlantic, using data from the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis for 1948-2016, and uses a synoptic climatological analysis to relate these bombs to their associated atmospheric environments. A self-organizing map (SOM) of 300-hPa geopotential height tendency is created to partition the regional atmospheric environment. Thermodynamic fields are contrasted by each 300-hPa geopotential height tendency pattern for both bomb and non-bomb events in composite difference maps. The SOM patterns most significantly associated with western North Atlantic bomb cyclogenesis are characterized by both strongly and weakly negative height tendencies along the eastern United States. In both cases, these patterns exhibit strong meridional flow, a distinction marked by the weakening and breaking down of the polar vortex in the boreal Winter. The composite maps for each pattern show the mean differences in low-mid level ascent and near surface thermodynamics for bomb environments contrasted with non-bomb environments, resulting in diverse spatiotemporal distributions of bombs in the western North Atlantic.

Long term evolution of wind at the German coasts using newly digitzed data of signal stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinz, Birger; Wagner, Dörte; Feser, Frauke; Storch, Hans v.

2017-04-01

A long overseen source of synoptic data collected along the coast of Germany has been detected, and is presently digitized. The data stem from warning posts in harbors along the coast, so called "Signalstationen", which recorded estimated wind speed and direction, wave conditions, air pressure and precipitation. The first post began operating in 1877 and the last ceased operation in 1999. Signal Stations were positioned close to the shore to convey severe weather warning of the German Marine Observatory in Hamburg to ships and the coastal population. This was done by raising optical signals. Reports were prepared 3 to 9 times per day. These observations did not enter the regular weather analysis process of the weather service, but were later archived: Now, about 800 handwritten journals are archived at the German Meteorological Service in Hamburg, and some are now available for further analysis. A first inspection of these data indicates a wealth of data, which are well suited for high-resolution description of historical coastal events such as the storm surges in the southern Baltic Sea on 31 January 1913 or in the German Bight on 12 March 1906. The temporal homogeneity is sometimes compromised and homogenization is required. Estimated wind conditions, available so far at the two stations Travemünde and Schleimünde for more than 100 years, allow for the first time an assessment of changing wind and storm conditions based on wind data (instead of proxies such as annual percentiles of geostrophic wind distributions). The pressure data may be used to generating fine-scale synoptic analysis but also for generating geostrophic wind statistics on spatial scales much shorter than what was possible so far.

Multiscale analyses on a massive immigration process of Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) in south-central China: influences of synoptic-scale meteorological conditions and topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qiu-Lin; Westbrook, John K.; Hu, Gao; Lu, Ming-Hong; Liu, Wan-Cai; Sword, Gregory A.; Zhai, Bao-Ping

2018-04-01

Mass landings of migrating white-backed planthopper, Sogatella furcifera (Horváth), can lead to severe outbreaks that cause heavy losses for rice production in East Asia. South-central China is the main infestation area on the annual migration loop of S. furcifera between the northern Indo-China Peninsula and mainland China; however, rice planthopper species are not able to survive in this region over winter. In this study, a trajectory analysis of movements from population source areas and a spatiotemporal dynamic analysis of mesoscale and synoptic weather conditions from 7 to 10 May 2012 were conducted using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model to identify source areas of immigrants and determine how weather and topographic terrain influence insect landing. A sensitivity experiment was conducted with reduced topography using the WRF model to explain the associations among rainfall, topography, and light-trap catches of S. furcifera. The trajectory modeling results suggest that the source areas of S. furcifera immigrants into south-central China from 8 to 10 May were mainly southern Guangxi, northern Vietnam, and north-central Vietnam. The appearance of enormous catches of immigrant S. furcifera coincided with a period of rainstorms. The formation of transporting southerly winds was strongly associated with the topographic terrain. Additionally, the rainfall distribution and intensity over south-central China significantly decreased when topography was reduced in the model and were directly affected by wind circulation, which was associated with mountainous terrain that caused strong convection. This study indicates that migrating populations of S. furcifera were carried by the southwesterly low-level jets and that topographically induced convergent winds, precipitation, low temperatures, and wind shear acted as key factors that led to massive landings.

WRF Model Simulations of Terrain-Driven Atmospheric Eddies in Marine Stratocumulus Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muller, B. M.; Herbster, C. G.; Mosher, F. R.

2014-12-01

It is not unusual to observe atmospheric eddies in satellite imagery of the marine stratus and stratocumulus clouds that characterize the summertime weather of the California coastal region and near-shore oceanic environment. The winds of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) over the ocean interact with the high terrain of prominent headlands and islands to create order-10 km scale areas of swirling air that can contain a cloud-free eye, 180-degree wind reversals at the surface over a period of minutes, and may be associated with mixing and turbulence between the high-humidity air of the MABL and the much warmer and drier inversion layer air above. However, synoptic and even subsynoptic surface weather measurements, and the synoptic upper-air observing network are inadequate, or in some cases, completely unable, to detect and characterize the formation, movement, and even the existence of the eddies. They can literally slip between land-based surface observation locations, or stay over the near-shore ocean environment where there may be no surface meteorological measurements. This study presents Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations of these small-scale, terrain-driven, atmospheric features in the MABL from cases detected in GOES satellite imagery. The purpose is to use model output to diagnose the formation mechanisms, sources of vorticity, and the air flow in and around the eddies. Satellite imagery is compared to simulated atmospheric variables to validate features generated within the model atmosphere, and model output is employed as a surrogate atmosphere to better understand the atmospheric characteristics of the eddies. Model air parcel trajectories are estimated to trace the movement and sources of the air contained in and around these often-observed, but seldom-measured features.

Multiscale analyses on a massive immigration process of Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) in south-central China: influences of synoptic-scale meteorological conditions and topography.

PubMed

Wu, Qiu-Lin; Westbrook, John K; Hu, Gao; Lu, Ming-Hong; Liu, Wan-Cai; Sword, Gregory A; Zhai, Bao-Ping

2018-04-30

Mass landings of migrating white-backed planthopper, Sogatella furcifera (Horváth), can lead to severe outbreaks that cause heavy losses for rice production in East Asia. South-central China is the main infestation area on the annual migration loop of S. furcifera between the northern Indo-China Peninsula and mainland China; however, rice planthopper species are not able to survive in this region over winter. In this study, a trajectory analysis of movements from population source areas and a spatiotemporal dynamic analysis of mesoscale and synoptic weather conditions from 7 to 10 May 2012 were conducted using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model to identify source areas of immigrants and determine how weather and topographic terrain influence insect landing. A sensitivity experiment was conducted with reduced topography using the WRF model to explain the associations among rainfall, topography, and light-trap catches of S. furcifera. The trajectory modeling results suggest that the source areas of S. furcifera immigrants into south-central China from 8 to 10 May were mainly southern Guangxi, northern Vietnam, and north-central Vietnam. The appearance of enormous catches of immigrant S. furcifera coincided with a period of rainstorms. The formation of transporting southerly winds was strongly associated with the topographic terrain. Additionally, the rainfall distribution and intensity over south-central China significantly decreased when topography was reduced in the model and were directly affected by wind circulation, which was associated with mountainous terrain that caused strong convection. This study indicates that migrating populations of S. furcifera were carried by the southwesterly low-level jets and that topographically induced convergent winds, precipitation, low temperatures, and wind shear acted as key factors that led to massive landings.

Surface pressure maps from scatterometer data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, R. A.; Levy, Gad

1991-01-01

The ability to determine surface pressure fields from satellite scatterometer data was shown by Brown and Levy (1986). The surface winds are used to calculate the gradient winds above the planetary boundary layer, and these are directly related to the pressure gradients. There are corrections for variable stratification, variable surface roughness, horizontal inhomogeneity, humidity and baroclinity. The Seasat-A Satellite Scatterometer (SASS) data have been used in a systematic study of 50 synoptic weather events (regions of approximately 1000 X 1000 km). The preliminary statistics of agreement with national weather service surface pressure maps are calculated. The resulting surface pressure maps can be used together with SASS winds and Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) water vapor and liquid water analyses to provide good front and storm system analyses.

Graphical tools for TV weather presentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najman, M.

2010-09-01

Contemporary meteorology and its media presentation faces in my opinion following key tasks: - Delivering the meteorological information to the end user/spectator in understandable and modern fashion, which follows industry standard of video output (HD, 16:9) - Besides weather icons show also the outputs of numerical weather prediction models, climatological data, satellite and radar images, observed weather as actual as possible. - Does not compromise the accuracy of presented data. - Ability to prepare and adjust the weather show according to actual synoptic situtation. - Ability to refocus and completely adjust the weather show to actual extreme weather events. - Ground map resolution weather data presentation need to be at least 20 m/pixel to be able to follow the numerical weather prediction model resolution. - Ability to switch between different numerical weather prediction models each day, each show or even in the middle of one weather show. - The graphical weather software need to be flexible and fast. The graphical changes nee to be implementable and airable within minutes before the show or even live. These tasks are so demanding and the usual original approach of custom graphics could not deal with it. It was not able to change the show every day, the shows were static and identical day after day. To change the content of the weather show daily was costly and most of the time impossible with the usual approach. The development in this area is fast though and there are several different options for weather predicting organisations such as national meteorological offices and private meteorological companies to solve this problem. What are the ways to solve it? What are the limitations and advantages of contemporary graphical tools for meteorologists? All these questions will be answered.

Three Decades of Remote Sensing Based Tropical Forests Phenological Patterns and Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Didan, K.

2010-12-01

The faint climatic seasonality of tropical rain forests is believed to be the reason these biomes lack strong and detectable seasonality. Forest seasonality is a critical element of ecosystem functions. It moderates the echo-hydrology, carbon, and nutrient exchange of the area. While deciduous forests exhibit distinct and strong seasonality, tropical forests do not, yet they play a large role in the cycling of energy and mass. Tropical forests represent a large percentage of vegetated land and their importance to the Earth system stems from their biological diversity, their habitat role, their role in regulating global weather, and the role they play in carbon storage. While Tropical forests are well buffered by their sheer size, their vulnerability to climate change is exacerbated by the human pressure. All of this begs the questions of what are the patterns and characteristic of tropical forests phenology and are there any detectable trends over the last three decades of synoptic remote sensing. These three decades comprise different episodes of droughts and an ever increasing level of human encroachment. In so far understanding the function and dynamic of these biomes, field studies continue to play a major role, but synoptic remote sensing is emerging as a viable tool to addressing the spatial and temporal scale associated with this problem. Recent studies of Brazilian rainforest with synoptic remote sensing point to a sizable seasonal signal coincident with the dry season. However, these studies were not extensive in time or space and did not look at other rainforests. Using data from AVHRR and MODIS, we generated a 30 year record of the 2 bands Enhance Vegetation Index (EVI2), and analyzed the patterns and trends of land surface phenology across all tropical forests using the homogeneous phenology cluster approach. We chose EVI because of its superior performance over these dense forests, and we selected the homogeneous phenology cluster approach to abate the noise associated with single pixel approaches. This approach reasonably assumes that land surface seasonality is homogeneous over areas with similar climate, soil, elevation gradient, aspect, and land cover. Our goal was to establish the patterns and characteristic of the land surface phenology of these biomes and to analyze their spatio-temporal trends. Strong variability was observed across the forests of South America, Central Africa and South East Asia. The South American forest exhibited the faintest seasonal signal with the strongest response to droughts. These forests show a more distinct and ever more evident dry season response. The Tropical forest of central Africa shows a more evident seasonal signal and a trend where the season is breaking into a bimodal growth mode, with two distinct and separate growth periods. The Tropical forest of South East Asia shows a more fragmented seasonality that most likely is the result of human pressure and its impact on land cover. Although we have not looked at the underlying climatic factors, we hypothesize that the seasonality of these forests are mostly shaped by the climatic patterns which would suggest that these trends will become more evident as climate continues to change.

A new precipitation and drought climatology based on weather patterns.

PubMed

Richardson, Douglas; Fowler, Hayley J; Kilsby, Christopher G; Neal, Robert

2018-02-01

Weather-pattern, or weather-type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterize the broad-scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. This study analyses the aspects of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a new set of objectively defined weather patterns. These new patterns are currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to Lamb weather types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn. Daily precipitation distributions are associated with each weather pattern and LWT. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and drought severity index (DSI) series are calculated for a range of aggregation periods and seasons. Monthly weather-pattern frequency anomalies are calculated for SPI wet and dry periods and for the 5% most intense DSI-based drought months. The new weather-pattern definitions and daily occurrences largely agree with their respective LWTs, allowing comparison between the two classifications. There is also broad agreement between weather pattern and LWT changes in frequencies. The new data set is shown to be adequate for precipitation-based analyses in the UK, although a smaller set of clustered weather patterns is not. Furthermore, intra-pattern precipitation variability is lower in the new classification compared to the LWTs, which is an advantage in this context. Six of the new weather patterns are associated with drought over the entire UK, with several other patterns linked to regional drought. It is demonstrated that the new data set of weather patterns offers a new opportunity for classification-based analyses in the UK.

Weather elements, chemical air pollutants and airborne pollen influencing asthma emergency room visits in Szeged, Hungary: performance of two objective weather classifications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makra, László; Puskás, János; Matyasovszky, István; Csépe, Zoltán; Lelovics, Enikő; Bálint, Beatrix; Tusnády, Gábor

2015-09-01

Weather classification approaches may be useful tools in modelling the occurrence of respiratory diseases. The aim of the study is to compare the performance of an objectively defined weather classification and the Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) in classifying emergency department (ED) visits for acute asthma depending from weather, air pollutants, and airborne pollen variables for Szeged, Hungary, for the 9-year period 1999-2007. The research is performed for three different pollen-related periods of the year and the annual data set. According to age and gender, nine patient categories, eight meteorological variables, seven chemical air pollutants, and two pollen categories were used. In general, partly dry and cold air and partly warm and humid air aggravate substantially the symptoms of asthmatics. Our major findings are consistent with this establishment. Namely, for the objectively defined weather types favourable conditions for asthma ER visits occur when an anticyclonic ridge weather situation happens with near extreme temperature and humidity parameters. Accordingly, the SSC weather types facilitate aggravating asthmatic conditions if warm or cool weather occur with high humidity in both cases. Favourable conditions for asthma attacks are confirmed in the extreme seasons when atmospheric stability contributes to enrichment of air pollutants. The total efficiency of the two classification approaches is similar in spite of the fact that the methodology for derivation of the individual types within the two classification approaches is completely different.

Weather elements, chemical air pollutants and airborne pollen influencing asthma emergency room visits in Szeged, Hungary: performance of two objective weather classifications.

PubMed

Makra, László; Puskás, János; Matyasovszky, István; Csépe, Zoltán; Lelovics, Enikő; Bálint, Beatrix; Tusnády, Gábor

2015-09-01

Weather classification approaches may be useful tools in modelling the occurrence of respiratory diseases. The aim of the study is to compare the performance of an objectively defined weather classification and the Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) in classifying emergency department (ED) visits for acute asthma depending from weather, air pollutants, and airborne pollen variables for Szeged, Hungary, for the 9-year period 1999-2007. The research is performed for three different pollen-related periods of the year and the annual data set. According to age and gender, nine patient categories, eight meteorological variables, seven chemical air pollutants, and two pollen categories were used. In general, partly dry and cold air and partly warm and humid air aggravate substantially the symptoms of asthmatics. Our major findings are consistent with this establishment. Namely, for the objectively defined weather types favourable conditions for asthma ER visits occur when an anticyclonic ridge weather situation happens with near extreme temperature and humidity parameters. Accordingly, the SSC weather types facilitate aggravating asthmatic conditions if warm or cool weather occur with high humidity in both cases. Favourable conditions for asthma attacks are confirmed in the extreme seasons when atmospheric stability contributes to enrichment of air pollutants. The total efficiency of the two classification approaches is similar in spite of the fact that the methodology for derivation of the individual types within the two classification approaches is completely different.

The relevance and legibility of radio/TV weather reports to the Austrian public

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keul, A. G.; Holzer, A. M.

2013-03-01

The communicative quality of media weather reports, especially warnings, can be evaluated by user research. It is an interdisciplinary field, still uncoordinated after 35 years. The authors suggest to shift from a cognitive learning model to news processing, qualitative discourse and usability models as the media audience is in an edutainment situation where it acts highly selective. A series of field surveys 2008-2011 tested the relevance and legibility of Austrian radio and television weather reports on fair weather and in warning situations. 247 laypeople heard/saw original, mostly up-to-date radio/TV weather reports and recalled personally relevant data. Also, a questionnaire on weather knowledge was answered by 237 Austrians. Several research hypotheses were tested. The main results were (a) a relatively high level of meteorological knowledge of the general population, with interest and participation of German-speaking migrants, (b) a pluralistic media usage with TV, radio and internet as the leading media, (c) higher interest and attention (also for local weather) after warnings, but a risk of more false recalls after long warnings, (d) more recall problems with radio messages and a wish that the weather elements should always appear in the same order to faciliate processing for the audience. In their narrow time windows, radio/TV weather reports should concentrate on main features (synoptic situation, tomorrow's temperature and precipitation, possible warnings), keep a verbal “speed limit” and restrict show elements to serve the active, selective, multioptional, multicultural audience.

Comparison of kinetic and air temperatures in Budapest aiming applications in weather forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mika, Janos; Nemeth, Akos; Bela Olah, Andras; Dezso, Zsuzsanna

2010-05-01

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) based kinetic temperature data are compared with the surface air temperature data at the four weather stations in Budapest, Hun-gary. Dependence of these temperature characteristics on weather conditions, characterised by macrosynoptic types and by objective weather types, is in the focus of the study. Day- and night-time kinetic temperature series are used from the period 2001-2008. Four automatic stations are also used as the surface-based control variables. The four MODIS-pixels, covering one station, each, are the sites of our comparison. One of the four stations has strictly urban situation at the roof level in a strongly built-in region of Budapest. Another one, used as background rural station is at the east-west edge of the town with gar-dened environment. Two other stations are positioned near the river Danube at the northern and southern edges of Budapest, still under mezo-scale effect of the city. The number of elaborated hourly values is 4300-4400 above each pixel, depending on the cloudiness. At the four station automatic observations on air temperature, cloudiness (=0), relative humidity and wind-speed are observed in the hours of the MODIS observations. From these elements air temperature is used for comparison with the satellite-based kinetic temperature, and also as the main components of the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET), de-rived to characterise usefulness of the kinetic temperature. Our first aim is to specify detailed relationship between the two temperatures consider-ing the seasonal and diurnal cycles and synoptic situation. This comparison is also performed by using the PET to establish which kind of temperature reminds this human bioclimatic in-dex better. If we could establish effective relationships with the synoptic situations (or weather types) we could use them in two further applications. The first one is the everyday forecasting of dangerous situations within the city on the days when the rural weather forecast claims about extreme temperature even at the rural sites. On summer hot days the weather-dependent UHI increases but on cold winter days decreases the risks on human health and technical equipments. The other scientific problem is whether the long-term season-dependent changes of the atmospheric circulation can modify the behaviour of the UHI even without fur-ther changes in the building in of the city. To answer this question the established relation-ships are combined with regional climate change projections of the circulation conditions.

Description of Mixed-Phase Clouds in Weather Forecast and Climate Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

deficits, leading to freeze-up of both sea ice and the ocean surface. The surface albedo and processes impacting the energy content of the upper ocean...appear key to producing a temporal difference be- tween the freeze-up of the sea - ice surface and adjacent open water. While synoptic conditions, atmos...Leck, 2013: Cloud and boundary layer interactions over the Arctic sea - ice in late summer, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 13, 13191-13244, doi

Objective detection and forecasting of Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT): A status report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, John L.

1988-01-01

Clear-air turbulence has become the largest single cause of weather-related injuries occurring in commercial carriers at cruising altitudes. A technique for objective operational CAT detection (the SCATR index) has been formulated. Its physical basis ties CAT to total energy dissipation as a response to meso- and synoptic-scale dynamical processes associated with upper-level jet stream/frontal zones. Early case studies using properly analyzed routine RAOB rawinsonde sounding data have shown promise.

A new precipitation and meteorological drought climatology based on weather patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, D.; Fowler, H. J.; Kilsby, C. G.; Neal, R.

2017-12-01

Weather-pattern, or weather-type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterise the broad-scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. An analysis of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a set of objectively defined weather patterns is presented. This classification system, introduced last year, is currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. The classification consists of 30 daily patterns derived from North Atlantic Ocean and European mean sea level pressure data. Clustering these 30 patterns yields another set of eight patterns that are intended for use in longer-range applications. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to the commonly-used Lamb Weather Types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn. Daily precipitation distributions are associated with each weather pattern and LWT. Drought index series are calculated for a range of aggregation periods and seasons. Monthly weather-pattern frequency anomalies are calculated for different drought index thresholds, representing dry, wet and drought conditions. The set of 30 weather patterns is shown to be adequate for precipitation-based analyses in the UK, although the smaller set of clustered patterns is not. Furthermore, intra-pattern precipitation variability is lower in the new classification compared to the LWTs, which is an advantage in the context of precipitation studies. Weather patterns associated with drought over the different UK regions are identified. This has potential forecasting application - if a model (e.g. a global seasonal forecast model) can predict weather pattern occurrences then regional drought outlooks may be derived from the forecasted weather patterns.

Synoptic scale convection and wave activity over tropical Africa and the Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mekonnen, Ademe

The objective of this research is to investigate synoptic scale convection and its association with wave disturbances over eastern Atlantic and tropical Africa. Analyses of convection highlight a significant peak periodicity in 2-6 day time scale over the Atlantic and most of tropical North Africa. The 2-6 day convective variance is the same order of magnitude over West and East Africa and accounts for 25%-35% of the total variance. However, dynamical measures of the African easterly wave (AEW) activity showed marked differences, variances over the West being more than the East. The explanation for this is that AEWs are initiated by convective precursors in the east and grow as they propagate westwards along the African easterly jet. Results show two major regions of synoptic time scale convection that are important for AEW initiation: the Darfur mountains (˜20°E) and the Ethiopian highlands (35°-40°E), with the former being more consistent and coherent. This study also shows the presence of eastward moving convective structures over tropical Africa, which are associated with Kelvin waves. The Kelvin waves originate in the Pacific and propagate across Africa. An important aspect of the Kelvin wave activity is its impact on convection and rainfall and its interaction with AEWs. Analysis of July-September 1987 weather events showed that convection and rainfall increase in association with Kelvin waves over tropical Africa. This event also suggested a series of AEWs initiated in association with Kelvin convection over tropical Africa. Spectral analysis of convection indicates a significant 3-4 day periodicity over Central Sudan, a region not known for wave disturbances. Two key factors that are associated with this variance are: (a) convective variability over equatorial Congo, and (b) upper level easterly waves that originate over Bay of Bengal-Southeast Asia. Results show the presence of a dipole pattern between the equatorial and East African convection that oscillates on a 4-day time scale. It is suggested that the two regions interact through a recharge-discharge process. This study also shows that convection over East Africa enhances in association with anomalous northerlies and weakens in association with southerlies in the upper troposphere.

Spatial extremes modeling applied to extreme precipitation data in the state of Paraná

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olinda, R. A.; Blanchet, J.; dos Santos, C. A. C.; Ozaki, V. A.; Ribeiro, P. J., Jr.

2014-11-01

Most of the mathematical models developed for rare events are based on probabilistic models for extremes. Although the tools for statistical modeling of univariate and multivariate extremes are well developed, the extension of these tools to model spatial extremes includes an area of very active research nowadays. A natural approach to such a modeling is the theory of extreme spatial and the max-stable process, characterized by the extension of infinite dimensions of multivariate extreme value theory, and making it possible then to incorporate the existing correlation functions in geostatistics and therefore verify the extremal dependence by means of the extreme coefficient and the Madogram. This work describes the application of such processes in modeling the spatial maximum dependence of maximum monthly rainfall from the state of Paraná, based on historical series observed in weather stations. The proposed models consider the Euclidean space and a transformation referred to as space weather, which may explain the presence of directional effects resulting from synoptic weather patterns. This method is based on the theorem proposed for de Haan and on the models of Smith and Schlather. The isotropic and anisotropic behavior of these models is also verified via Monte Carlo simulation. Estimates are made through pairwise likelihood maximum and the models are compared using the Takeuchi Information Criterion. By modeling the dependence of spatial maxima, applied to maximum monthly rainfall data from the state of Paraná, it was possible to identify directional effects resulting from meteorological phenomena, which, in turn, are important for proper management of risks and environmental disasters in countries with its economy heavily dependent on agribusiness.

Prediction of PM10 grades in Seoul, Korea using a neural network model based on synoptic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hur, S. K.; Oh, H. R.; Ho, C. H.; Kim, J.; Song, C. K.; Chang, L. S.; Lee, J. B.

2016-12-01

As of November 2014, the Korean Ministry of Environment (KME) started forecasting the level of ambient particulate matter with diameters ≤ 10 μm (PM10) as four grades: low (PM10 ≤ 30 μg m-3), moderate (30 < PM10 ≤ 80 μg m-3), high (80 < PM10 ≤ 150 μg m-3), and very high (PM10 > 150 μg m-3). Due to short history of forecast, overall performance of the operational forecasting system and its hit rate for the four PM10 grades are difficult to evaluate. In attempt to provide a statistical reference for the current air quality forecasting system, we hindcasted the four PM10 grades for the cold seasons (October-March) of 2001-2014 in Seoul, Korea using a neural network model based on the synoptic patterns of meteorological fields such as geopotential height, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind. In the form of cosine similarity, the distinctive synoptic patterns for each PM10 grades are well quantified as predictors to train the neural network model. Using these fields as predictors and considering the PM10 concentration in Seoul from the day before prediction as an additional predictor, an overall hit rate of 69% was achieved; the hit rates for the low, moderate, high, and very high PM10 grades were 33%, 83%, 45%, and 33%, respectively. This study reveals that the synoptic patterns of meteorological fields are useful predictors for the identification of favorable conditions for each PM10 grade, and the associated transboundary transport and local accumulation of PM10 from the industrialized regions of China. Consequently, the assessments of predictability obtained from the neural network model in this study are reliable to use as a statistical reference for the current air quality forecasting system.

Synoptic sampling and principal components analysis to identify sources of water and metals to an acid mine drainage stream.

PubMed

Byrne, Patrick; Runkel, Robert L; Walton-Day, Katherine

2017-07-01

Combining the synoptic mass balance approach with principal components analysis (PCA) can be an effective method for discretising the chemistry of inflows and source areas in watersheds where contamination is diffuse in nature and/or complicated by groundwater interactions. This paper presents a field-scale study in which synoptic sampling and PCA are employed in a mineralized watershed (Lion Creek, Colorado, USA) under low flow conditions to (i) quantify the impacts of mining activity on stream water quality; (ii) quantify the spatial pattern of constituent loading; and (iii) identify inflow sources most responsible for observed changes in stream chemistry and constituent loading. Several of the constituents investigated (Al, Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn) fail to meet chronic aquatic life standards along most of the study reach. The spatial pattern of constituent loading suggests four primary sources of contamination under low flow conditions. Three of these sources are associated with acidic (pH <3.1) seeps that enter along the left bank of Lion Creek. Investigation of inflow water (trace metal and major ion) chemistry using PCA suggests a hydraulic connection between many of the left bank inflows and mine water in the Minnesota Mine shaft located to the north-east of the river channel. In addition, water chemistry data during a rainfall-runoff event suggests the spatial pattern of constituent loading may be modified during rainfall due to dissolution of efflorescent salts or erosion of streamside tailings. These data point to the complexity of contaminant mobilisation processes and constituent loading in mining-affected watersheds but the combined synoptic sampling and PCA approach enables a conceptual model of contaminant dynamics to be developed to inform remediation.

Synoptic sampling and principal components analysis to identify sources of water and metals to an acid mine drainage stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Byrne, Patrick; Runkel, Robert L.; Walton-Day, Katie

2017-01-01

Combining the synoptic mass balance approach with principal components analysis (PCA) can be an effective method for discretising the chemistry of inflows and source areas in watersheds where contamination is diffuse in nature and/or complicated by groundwater interactions. This paper presents a field-scale study in which synoptic sampling and PCA are employed in a mineralized watershed (Lion Creek, Colorado, USA) under low flow conditions to (i) quantify the impacts of mining activity on stream water quality; (ii) quantify the spatial pattern of constituent loading; and (iii) identify inflow sources most responsible for observed changes in stream chemistry and constituent loading. Several of the constituents investigated (Al, Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn) fail to meet chronic aquatic life standards along most of the study reach. The spatial pattern of constituent loading suggests four primary sources of contamination under low flow conditions. Three of these sources are associated with acidic (pH <3.1) seeps that enter along the left bank of Lion Creek. Investigation of inflow water (trace metal and major ion) chemistry using PCA suggests a hydraulic connection between many of the left bank inflows and mine water in the Minnesota Mine shaft located to the north-east of the river channel. In addition, water chemistry data during a rainfall-runoff event suggests the spatial pattern of constituent loading may be modified during rainfall due to dissolution of efflorescent salts or erosion of streamside tailings. These data point to the complexity of contaminant mobilisation processes and constituent loading in mining-affected watersheds but the combined synoptic sampling and PCA approach enables a conceptual model of contaminant dynamics to be developed to inform remediation.

The Relationship Between Anomalous Presummer Extreme Rainfall Over South China and Synoptic Disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ling; Luo, Yali; Zhang, Da-Lin

2018-04-01

A spectral analysis of daily rainfall data has been performed to investigate extreme rainfall events in south China during the presummer rainy seasons between 1998 and 2015 (excluding 1999, 2006, 2011, and 2014). The results reveal a dominant frequency mode at the synoptic scale with pronounced positive rainfall anomalies. By analyzing the synoptic-scale bandpass-filtered anomalous circulations, 24 extreme rainfall episodes (defined as those with a daily rainfall amount in the top 5%) are categorized into "cyclone" (15) and "trough" (8) types, with the remaining events as an "anticyclone" type, according to the primary anomalous weather system contributing to each extreme rainfall episode. The 15 cyclone-type episodes are further separated into (11) lower- and (4) upper-tropospheric migratory anomalies. An analysis of their anomalous fields shows that both types could be traced back to the generation of cyclonic anomalies downstream of the Tibetan Plateau, except for two episodes of lower-tropospheric migratory anomalies originating over the South China Sea. However, a lower-tropospheric cyclonic anomaly appears during all phases in the former type, but only in the wettest phase in the latter type, with its peak disturbance occurring immediately beneath an upper-level warm anomaly. The production of extreme rainfall in the trough-type episodes is closely related to a deep trough anomaly extending from an intense cyclonic anomaly over north China, which in turn could be traced back to a midlatitude Rossby wave train passing by the Tibetan Plateau. The results have important implications for understanding the origin, structure, and evolution of synoptic disturbances associated with the presummer extreme rainfall in south China.

Sampling theory for asynoptic satellite observations. I Space-time spectra, resolution, and aliasing. II - Fast Fourier synoptic mapping

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salby, M. L.

1982-01-01

An evaluation of the information content of asynoptic data taken in the form of nadir sonde and limb scan observations is presented, and a one-to-one correspondence is established between the alias-free data and twice-daily synoptic maps. Attention is given to space and time limitations of sampling and the orbital geometry is discussed. The sampling pattern is demonstrated to determine unique space-time spectra at all wavenumbers and frequencies. Spectral resolution and aliasing are explored, while restrictions on sampling and information content are defined. It is noted that irregular sampling at high latitudes produces spurious contamination effects. An Asynoptic Sampling Theorem is thereby formulated, as is a Synoptic Retrieval Theorem, in the second part of the article. In the latter, a procedure is developed for retrieving the unique correspondence between the asymptotic data and the synoptic maps. Applications examples are provided using data from the Nimbus-6 satellite.

Real Time Data in Synoptic Meteolorolgy and Weather Forecasting Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campetella, C. M.; Gassmann, M. I.

2006-05-01

The Department of Atmospheric and Oceanographic Sciences (DAOS) of the University of Buenos Aires is the university component of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Meteorological Training Center (RMTC) in Region III. In January, 2002 our RMTC was invited to take part in the MeteoForum pilot project that was developed jointly by the COMET and Unidata programs of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). MeteoForum comprises an international network of WMO Region III and IV RMTCs working collaboratively with universities to enhance their roles of training and education through information technologies and multilingual collections of resources. The DAOS undertook to improve its infrastructure to be able to access hydro-meteorological information in real-time as part of the Unidata community. In 2003, the DAOS received some Unidata equipment grant funds to update its computer infrastructure, improving communications with an operationally quicker system. Departmental networking was upgraded to 100 Mb/s capability while, at the same time, new computation resources were purchased that increased the number of computers available for student use from 5 to 8. This upgrade has also resulted in more and better computers being available for student and faculty research. A video projection system, purchased with funds provided by the COMET program as part of Meteoforum, is used in classrooms with Internet connections for a variety of educational activities. The upgraded computing and networking facilities have contributed to the development of educational modules using real-time hydro-meteorological and other digital data for the classroom. With the aid of Unidata personal, the Unidata Local Data Management (LDM) software was installed and configured to request and process real-time feeds of global observational data; global numerical model output from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) models; and all imager channels from GOES-12 from the Unidata Internet Data Distribution (IDD) system. The data now being routinely received have impacted not only the meteorological education in the DAOS, but also have been instructive in techniques for Internet-based data sharing for our students. The DAOS has made a substantial effort to provide undergraduate students with experience in manipulating, displaying, and analyzing weather data in real-time through interactive displays of data using visualization tools provided by Unidata. Two of the specific courses whose curriculum have been improved are synoptic meteorology and a laboratory on weather prediction. Some laboratory materials have been developed to reflect current data as applied to the lecture material. This talk will briefly describe the data compiled and the fields used to analyze an intense cyclogenesis event that occurred over the La Plata River in August, 2005. This event was used as a case study for discussions in the Synoptic Weather Laboratory degree course of Atmospheric Sciences Licentiate.

Satellite-derived pan-Arctic melt onset dataset, 2000-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Derksen, C.; Howell, S.; Wolken, G. J.; Sharp, M. J.; Markus, T.

2009-12-01

The SeaWinds Scatterometer on QuikSCAT (QS) has been in orbit for over a decade since its launch in June 1999. Due to its high sensitivity to the appearance of liquid water in snow and day/night all weather capability, QS data have been successfully used to detect melt onset and melt duration for various elements of the cryosphere. These melt datasets are especially useful in the polar regions where the application of imagery from optical sensors is hindered by polar nights and frequent cloud cover. In this study, we generate a pan-Arctic, pan-cryosphere melt onset dataset by combining estimates from previously published algorithms optimized for individual cryospheric elements and applied to QS and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data for the northern high latitude land surface, ice caps, large lakes, and sea ice. Comparisons of melt onset along the boundaries between different components of the cryosphere show that in general the integrated dataset provides consistent and spatially coherent melt onset estimates across the pan-Arctic. We present the climatology and the anomaly patterns in melt onset during 2000-2009, and identify synoptic-scale linkages between atmospheric conditions and the observed patterns. We also investigate the possible trends in melt onset in the pan-Arctic during the 10-year period.

Associations between ozone and morbidity using the Spatial Synoptic Classification system

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Synoptic circulation patterns (large-scale tropospheric motion systems) affect air pollution and, potentially, air-pollution-morbidity associations. We evaluated the effect of synoptic circulation patterns (air masses) on the association between ozone and hospital admissions for asthma and myocardial infarction (MI) among adults in North Carolina. Methods Daily surface meteorology data (including precipitation, wind speed, and dew point) for five selected cities in North Carolina were obtained from the U.S. EPA Air Quality System (AQS), which were in turn based on data from the National Climatic Data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We used the Spatial Synoptic Classification system to classify each day of the 9-year period from 1996 through 2004 into one of seven different air mass types: dry polar, dry moderate, dry tropical, moist polar, moist moderate, moist tropical, or transitional. Daily 24-hour maximum 1-hour ambient concentrations of ozone were obtained from the AQS. Asthma and MI hospital admissions data for the 9-year period were obtained from the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services. Generalized linear models were used to assess the association of the hospitalizations with ozone concentrations and specific air mass types, using pollutant lags of 0 to 5 days. We examined the effect across cities on days with the same air mass type. In all models we adjusted for dew point and day-of-the-week effects related to hospital admissions. Results Ozone was associated with asthma under dry tropical (1- to 5-day lags), transitional (3- and 4-day lags), and extreme moist tropical (0-day lag) air masses. Ozone was associated with MI only under the extreme moist tropical (5-day lag) air masses. Conclusions Elevated ozone levels are associated with dry tropical, dry moderate, and moist tropical air masses, with the highest ozone levels being associated with the dry tropical air mass. Certain synoptic circulation patterns/air masses in conjunction with ambient ozone levels were associated with increased asthma and MI hospitalizations. PMID:21609456

The useful potential of using existing data to uniquely identify predictable wind events and regimes, part 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trettel, D. W.; Aquino, J. T.; Piazza, T. R.; Taylor, L. E.; Trask, D. C.

1982-01-01

Correlations between standard meteorological data and wind power generation potential were developed. Combined with appropriate wind forecasts, these correlations can be useful to load dispatchers to supplement conventional energy sources. Hourly wind data were analyzed for four sites, each exhibiting a unique physiography. These sites are Amarillo, Texas; Ludington, Michigan; Montauk Point, New York; and San Gorgonio, California. Synoptic weather maps and tables are presented to illustrate various wind 'regimes' at these sites.

A Regional Analysis of Non-Methane Hydrocarbons And Meteorology of The Rural Southeast United States

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-01-01

Zt is an ARIMA time series. This is a typical regression model , except that it allows for autocorrelation in the error term Z. In this work, an ARMA...data=folder; var residual; run; II Statistical output of 1992 regression model on 1993 ozone data ARIMA Procedure Maximum Likelihood Estimation Approx...at each of the sites, and to show the effect of synoptic meteorology on high ozone by examining NOAA daily weather maps and climatic data

Tropical Cyclone Report: Joint Typhoon Warning Center Guam, Mariana Islands, 1991

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-01-01

provided by the weather unit supporting synoptic time plus three hours (0300Z, 0900Z, the 15th Air Base Wing , Hickam AFB, Hawaii. 1500Z and 2100Z). By...DYNAMIC 5.2.3.1 CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE 5.2.4.1 NOGAPS VORTEX TRACKING ( CLIP ) - A statistical regression technique that ROUTINE (NGPS) - This...forecast skill of other in the expected vicinity of the storm is more sophisticated techniques. CLIP in the conducted every six hours through 72 hours

A two year (2008-2009) analysis of severe convective storms in the Mediterranean basin as observed by satellite imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gozzini, B.; Melani, S.; Pasi, F.; Ortolani, A.

2010-09-01

The increasing damages caused by natural disasters, a great part of them being direct or indirect effects of severe convective storms (SCS), seem to suggest that extreme events occur with greater frequency, also as a consequence of climate changes. A better comprehension of the genesis and evolution of SCS is then necessary to clarify if and what is changing in these extreme events. The major reason to go through the mechanisms driving such events is given by the growing need to have timely and precise predictions of severe weather events, especially in areas that show to be more and more sensitive to their occurrence. When dealing with severe weather events, either from a researcher or an operational point of view, it is necessary to know precisely the conditions under which these events take place to upgrade conceptual models or theories, and consequently to improve the quality of forecasts as well as to establish effective warning decision procedures. The Mediterranean basin is, in general terms, a sea of small areal extent, characterised by the presence of several islands; thus, a severe convection phenomenon originating over the sea, that lasts several hours, is very likely to make landfall during its lifetime. On the other hand, these storms are quasi-stationary or very slow moving so that, when convection happens close to the shoreline, it is normally very dangerous and in many cases can cause very severe weather, with flash floods or tornadoes. An example of these extreme events is one of the case study analysed in this work, regarding the flash flood occurred in Giampileri (Sicily, Italy) the evening of 1st October 2009, where 18 people died, other 79 injured and the historical centre of the village seriously damaged. Severe weather systems and strong convection occurring in the Mediterranean basin have been investigated for two years (2008-2009) using geostationary (MSG) and polar orbiting (AVHRR) satellite data, supported by ECMWF analyses and severe weather reports. The spatial and seasonal variability of storm occurrence have been also analysed, as well as the most favourable synoptic conditions for their formation. The analysis shows the existence of preferential areas of genesis of these extreme events, mainly located in the central Mediterranean (i.e., Ionic and Tyrrhenian seas), where the storms develop and grow preferentially in fall. The synoptic features, identified as precursors of severe convective events genesis, show how the totality of the identified cases occur in mid-troposphere (500 hPa) troughs or cut-off circulation within southerly flow, with values of deep level shear of at least 15 m s-1 and high θe (850 hPa) values. Among all the detected cases of severe convection, two selected cases of enhanced-V features are presented in detail, either for the different synoptic environments in which they are embedded, and for being long-lived or severe in terms of heavy rainfall and damages they produced at the ground. In a long-term perspective, this preliminary study aims to make a climatological database of severe weather events occurring in the Mediterranean sea which may critically impact on the Italian peninsula and potentially affect population, in order to develop an objective procedure which can support regional meteorological services in forecasting extreme events, their development and impact, for taking proper early decisions.

Influence of synoptic meteorological conditions on urban air quality -A study over Hyderabad, India using satellite data and ground based measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rani Sharma, Anu; Kharol, Shailesh Kumar; Kvs, Badarinath

Urban areas were considered to be a major source of atmospheric pollution due to popula-tion growth, migration, increasing industrialization and energy use particularly in developing countries. The air quality in urban areas is governed by temporal distribution of emissions from various activities in the city, the topography, and the weather, including atmospheric circulation patterns in the region. The extensive coastal belt of India is very vulnerable to low pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) or the Arabian Sea. Most importantly, the formation of a low pressure system in the ocean is one of the most prominent weather systems characterized by high atmospheric pressure gradients and wind. In the present study, variation in aerosol properties and ground reaching solar irradiance were analyzed over a tropical urban environment of Hyderabad associated with a low pressure system during December, 3-10, 2008 over Bay of Bengal (BoB). The low pressure system formed over southeast BoB on Decem-ber 4, 2008, moved westwards and lay centered at 23:30 Indian Standard Time. The study area of Hyderabad is located between 17° 10' and 17° 50' N latitude and 78° 10' and 78° 50' E longitude, in the southeastern part of the Indian region, 300 km from the BoB. Synchronous measurements of aerosol optical depth were carried out using handheld MICROTOPS -II in the premises of the National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC) campus located at Balanagar, Hyderabad. Along with the daytime measurements of AOD500, continuous measurements of the vertical profile of aerosols and planetary boundary layer were carried out using a portable micropulse lidar (MPL) system at 532 nm. An ultraviolet (UV)-B radiometer from Solar Light Company was used to measure UVery in the range 280-320 nm. Continuous measurements of the Particulate-matter (PM) size distributions were performed with GRIMM aerosol spectrom-eter model 1-108. Ground-reaching solar radiation in 310 to 2800 nm broadband was carried out using Kipp Zonen pyranometer model CMP 11. The collocated measurements provide bet-ter understanding of the changes in aerosol properties and their influence on ground reaching solar radiation associated with changes in synoptic meteorological conditions over the study site. Considerable variations in aerosol properties and ground-reaching solar irradiance due to changes in wind velocity and direction associated with the low pressure system formed over southeast BoB were observed. Terra/Aqua-Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer AOD550 variations showed trends matching with ground observations. The nighttime AOD values showed a 60% decrease on December 5, 2008, corresponding to the low pressure system located nearer to the measurement site in Hyderabad. The global solar irradiance showed an 6% increase on December 4, 2008, during low pressure over BoB due to reduction in columnar aerosol loading compared to a normal period. Nighttime Light Detection and Ranging observa-tions suggested considerable reduction in atmospheric particulate matter (PM) loading under the influence of low pressure system. Results of the study have implications for monitoring urban air quality as synoptic weather systems are capable of modifying the atmospheric PM loading. In the climate change scenario increased occurrence of low pressure systems over the region was anticipated, and this will have impact on the differential loading of atmospheric pollutants over the region. Keywords: Aerosol optical depth, LIDAR, solar irradiance, PM2.5, UVery, Low pressure system

Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events.

PubMed

Mann, Michael E; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A; Miller, Sonya K; Coumou, Dim

2017-03-27

Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6-8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art ("CMIP5") historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.

Monitoring of the tidal dynamics of the Dutch Waddensea by SIR-B

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koopmans, B. N.; Vanderzee, D.; Verstappen, A. T.; Woldai, T.; Hoschititzky, H.

1984-01-01

The potential of LANDSAT data, covering the entire tidal flats at a certain, known, tidal situation, was assessed. It was discovered that the data cannot be used for systematic survey because of the long interval between subsequent passes, weather conditions often interfere with recording, and of the lack of correlation between passes and the tidal situation. The objective is to overcome the problems by using: (1) the synoptic view obtained by SIR-B, which has the potential of surveying large areas of the flats simultaneously; (2) the all-weather capability of the microwave system; (3) the recording during consecutive days, which results in a straightforeward correlation with the tidal cycle and the picturing of different tidal stages; and (4) the multiangle incidence of SIR-B to analyze the bottom configuration of submerged parts of the flats. The use of a weather independent monitoring device, such as radar, an improvement in the monitoring technique of tidal coastal areas.

Extreme weather and air pollution effects on cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions in Cyprus.

PubMed

Tsangari, H; Paschalidou, A K; Kassomenos, A P; Vardoulakis, S; Heaviside, C; Georgiou, K E; Yamasaki, E N

2016-01-15

In many regions of the world, climatic change is associated with increased extreme temperatures, which can have severe effects on mortality and morbidity. In this study, we examine the effect of extreme weather on hospital admissions in Cyprus, for inland and coastal areas, through the use of synoptic weather classifications (air mass types). In addition, the effect of particulate air pollution (PM10) on morbidity is examined. Our results show that two air mass types, namely (a) warm, rainy days with increased levels of water vapour in the atmosphere and (b) cold, cloudy days with increased levels of precipitation, were associated with increased morbidity in the form of hospital admissions. This was true both for cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, for all age groups, but particularly for the elderly, aged over 65. Particulate air pollution was also associated with increased morbidity in Cyprus, where the effect was more pronounced for cardiovascular diseases. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fast-track extreme event attribution: General methods and techniques to determine the dynamic contribution to an event.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, F. E. L.; Haustein, K.; Uhe, P.; Massey, N.; Rimi, R.; Allen, M. R.; Cullen, H. M.

2016-12-01

Extreme weather event attribution has become an accepted part of the atmospheric sciences with numerous methods having been put forward over the last decade. We have recently established a new framework which allows for event attribution in quasi-real-time. Here we present the methodology with which we can assess the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) of a severe weather event due to an external driver (Haustein et al. 2016). The method builds on a large ensemble of atmosphere-only GCM simulations forced by seasonal forecast SSTs (actual conditions) that are contrasted with ensembles forced by counterfactual SSTs (natural conditions). Having an associated 30 year actual and natural climatology in place, we are able to put the current event into a climatological context and determine the dynamic contribution that lead to the event as opposed to the thermodynamic contribution which would have made such an event more likely regardless of the synoptic situation. As a second independent method (also applicable in near-real-time), we apply pattern correlation to separate thermodynamic and dynamic contributions. Finally, using reanalysis data, we test whether our attributed dynamic contribution is also detectable in the observations. Despite the high monthly variability, ENSO related teleconnection patterns can be detected fairly robustly as we will demonstrate with a recent example during El Nino. The more consistent the 3 methods are, the more robust our results will be. We note that the choice of time scale matters a lot when determining the dynamic contribution as well as estimating the FAR (Uhe et al. 2016). The weather@home ensemble prediction approach is accompanied by two more methods based on observational data and the CMIP5 ensemble. If the FAR across 3 methods is consistent, we have reason to trust our central attribution statement. Two recent examples will be shown in order to demonstrate the feasibility (van Oldenborgh et al. 2016a/2016b), complemented by new results from South Asia where we also investigate the effects of anthropogenic aerosols.

Tidal and atmospheric forcing of the upper ocean in the Gulf of California. I - Sea surface temperature variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paden, Cynthia A.; Winant, Clinton D.; Abbott, Mark R.

1991-01-01

SST variability in the northern Gulf of California is examined on the basis of findings of two years of satellite infrared imagery (1984-1986). Empirical orthogonal functions of the temporal and spatial SST variance for 20 monthly mean images show that the dominant SST patterns are generated by spatially varying tidal mixing in the presence of seasonal heating and cooling. Atmospheric forcing of the northern gulf appears to occur over large spatial scales. Area-averaged SSTs for the Guaymas Basin, island region, and northern basin exhibit significant fluctuations which are highly correlated. These fluctuations in SST correspond to similar fluctuations in the air temperature which are related to synoptic weather events over the gulf. A regression analysis of the SST relative to the fortnightly tidal range shows that tidal mixing occurs over the sills in the island region as well as on the shallow northern shelf. Mixing over the sills occurs as a result of large breaking internal waves of internal hydraulic jumps which mix over water in the upper 300-500 m.

Summer Sea Ice Motion from the 18 GHz Channel of AMSR-E and the Exchange of Sea Ice between the Pacific and Atlantic Sectors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwok, Ronald

2008-01-01

We demonstrate that sea ice motion in summer can be derived reliably from the 18GHz channel of the AMSR-E instrument on the EOS Aqua platform. The improved spatial resolution of this channel with its lower sensitivity to atmospheric moisture seems to have alleviated various issues that have plagued summer motion retrievals from shorter wavelength observations. Two spatial filters improve retrieval quality: one reduces some of the microwave signatures associated with synoptic-scale weather systems and the other removes outliers. Compared with daily buoy drifts, uncertainties in motion are approx.3-4 km/day. Using the daily motion fields, we examine five years of summer ice area exchange between the Pacific and Atlantic sectors of the Arctic Ocean. With the sea-level pressure patterns during the summer of 2006 and 2007 favoring the export of sea ice into the Atlantic Sector, the regional outflow is approx.21% and approx.15% of the total sea ice retreat in the Pacific sector.

Island Topographic Flow Interaction with the Sea in the Maritime Continent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pullen, J. D.

2016-12-01

New and emerging modeling systems yield an unprecedented perspective on air-sea interaction generated by atmospheric topographic flows around volcanic islands. This study highlights recent results from high-resolution (1-5km) coupled air/sea modeling of the Philippines. The processes represented by the model include orographic lifting; tip jets and lee vortices; and highly textured wind stress curl patterns. The latter produce oceanic eddies of significance to biological productivity. Also impacting biology in the region are episodic upwelling-favorable winds in local areas, such as the Verde Island Passage, that enhance the ecosystem response. Model fields are compared with in situ sea, land, and air measurements from the ONR Philippines Straits Dynamics Experiment (PhilEx) and with satellite-derived fields. The rainfall generated by the combined effects of terrain and atmospheric processes operating across interannual to synoptic timescales point to the importance of including hydrology in coupled models. This affords more realistic representation of the impact of river discharge on the coastal ocean, and the subsequent feedback of oceanic barrier layers to the propagation and characteristics of weather features.

Synoptic events force biological productivity in Patagonian fjord ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daneri, Giovanni

2016-04-01

The annual cycle of primary productivity of the Patagonian fjords has, to date, been described as a two phase system consisting of a short non productive winter phase (during June and July) and a productive phase extending from late winter (August) to autumn (May). Low levels of primary production, phytoplankton biomass and high concentrations of surface nutrients have been described as characterizing winter conditions while pulsed productivity events typifies the productivity pattern during the extended productive season. Pulsed productivity events characterize coastal waters where inorganic nutrients in surface layers are replenished following periods of intensive utilization by autotrophs. Freshwater input in Patagonian fjords in southern Chile (41-55°S) results in one of the largest estuarine regions worldwide. Here strong haline water column stratification prevents nutrient mixing to the surface layers thus potentially shutting off algal production. Our working hypothesis considered that in order to reconcile the observed pulsed productivity pattern, periodic breaking (associated to surface nutrient replenishment) and re-establishment of estuarine conditions (associated to water column stratification) would be required. Up to now however our understanding of the physical processes that control water column conditions in the Patagonian fjord area has been extremely limited. Here we present evidence linking the passage of synoptic low pressure fronts to pulsed productivity events in the Patagonian fjord area. These front controls and influence local processes of interaction between the fjord and the atmosphere generating a rapid water column response. In the specific case of the Puyuhuapi fjord we have been able to show that such synoptic fronts induce surface flow reversal and water column mixing. Phytoplankton blooming occurs after the passage of the synoptic front once calmer conditions prevail and estuarine conditions are re established. The occurrence of an extremely productive bloom of the dinoflagellate Heterocapsa sp. in July 2014, after the passage of a synoptic low pressure front provided, for the first time, strong evidence that phytoplankton blooming in the Patagonian fjord ecosystems is controlled by synoptic processes and that they are not limited by light as previously reported. This research was funded by COPAS Sur-Austral (PFB-31) and FONDECYT 1131063

Climate, not conflict, explains extreme Middle East dust storm

DOE PAGES

Parolari, Anthony J.; Li, Dan; Bou-Zeid, Elie; ...

2016-11-08

The recent dust storm in the Middle East (Sepember 2015) was publicized in the media as a sign of an impending 'Dust Bowl.' Its severity, demonstrated by extreme aerosol optical depth in the atmosphere in the 99th percentile compared to historical data, was attributed to the ongoing regional conflict. However, surface meteorological and remote sensing data, as well as regional climate model simulations, support an alternative hypothesis: the historically unprecedented aridity played a more prominent role, as evidenced by unusual climatic and meteorological conditions prior to and during the storm. Remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index demonstrates that vegetation covermore » was high in 2015 relative to the prior drought and conflict periods, suggesting that agricultural activity was not diminished during that year, thus negating the media narrative. Instead, meteorological simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model show that the storm was associated with a cyclone and 'Shamal' winds, typical for dust storm generation in this region, that were immediately followed by an unusual wind reversal at low levels that spread dust west to the Mediterranean Coast. These unusual meteorological conditions were aided by a significant reduction in the critical shear stress due to extreme dry and hot conditions, thereby enhancing dust availability for erosion during this storm. Concluding, unusual aridity, combined with unique synoptic weather patterns, enhanced dust emission and westward long-range transport across the region, thus generating the extreme storm.« less

Short Term Exogenic Climate Change Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krahenbuhl, Daniel

Several short term exogenic forcings affecting Earth's climate are but recently identified. Lunar nutation periodicity has implications for numerical meteorological prediction. Abrupt shifts in solar wind bulk velocity, particle density, and polarity exhibit correlation with terrestrial hemispheric vorticity changes, cyclonic strengthening and the intensification of baroclinic disturbances. Galactic Cosmic ray induced tropospheric ionization modifies cloud microphysics, and modulates the global electric circuit. This dissertation is constructed around three research questions: (1): What are the biweekly declination effects of lunar gravitation upon the troposphere? (2): How do United States severe weather reports correlate with heliospheric current sheet crossings? and (3): How does cloud cover spatially and temporally vary with galactic cosmic rays? Study 1 findings show spatial consistency concerning lunar declination extremes upon Rossby longwaves. Due to the influence of Rossby longwaves on synoptic scale circulation, our results could theoretically extend numerical meteorological forecasting. Study 2 results indicate a preference for violent tornadoes to occur prior to a HCS crossing. Violent tornadoes (EF3+) are 10% more probable to occur near, and 4% less probable immediately after a HCS crossing. The distribution of hail and damaging wind reports do not mirror this pattern. Polarity is critical for the effect. Study 3 results confirm anticorrelation between solar flux and low-level marine-layer cloud cover, but indicate substantial regional variability between cloud cover altitude and GCRs. Ultimately, this dissertation serves to extend short term meteorological forecasting, enhance climatological modeling and through analysis of severe violent weather and heliospheric events, protect property and save lives.

Climate, not conflict, explains extreme Middle East dust storm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parolari, Anthony J.; Li, Dan; Bou-Zeid, Elie

The recent dust storm in the Middle East (Sepember 2015) was publicized in the media as a sign of an impending 'Dust Bowl.' Its severity, demonstrated by extreme aerosol optical depth in the atmosphere in the 99th percentile compared to historical data, was attributed to the ongoing regional conflict. However, surface meteorological and remote sensing data, as well as regional climate model simulations, support an alternative hypothesis: the historically unprecedented aridity played a more prominent role, as evidenced by unusual climatic and meteorological conditions prior to and during the storm. Remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index demonstrates that vegetation covermore » was high in 2015 relative to the prior drought and conflict periods, suggesting that agricultural activity was not diminished during that year, thus negating the media narrative. Instead, meteorological simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model show that the storm was associated with a cyclone and 'Shamal' winds, typical for dust storm generation in this region, that were immediately followed by an unusual wind reversal at low levels that spread dust west to the Mediterranean Coast. These unusual meteorological conditions were aided by a significant reduction in the critical shear stress due to extreme dry and hot conditions, thereby enhancing dust availability for erosion during this storm. Concluding, unusual aridity, combined with unique synoptic weather patterns, enhanced dust emission and westward long-range transport across the region, thus generating the extreme storm.« less

Synoptic Factors Affecting Structure Predictability of Hurricane Alex (2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Aleman, J. J.; Evans, J. L.; Kowaleski, A. M.

2016-12-01

On January 7, 2016, a disturbance formed over the western North Atlantic basin. After undergoing tropical transition, the system became the first hurricane of 2016 - and the first North Atlantic hurricane to form in January since 1938. Already an extremely rare hurricane event, Alex then underwent extratropical transition [ET] just north of the Azores Islands. We examine the factors affecting Alex's structural evolution through a new technique called path-clustering. In this way, 51 ensembles from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Ensemble Prediction System (ECMWF-EPS) are grouped based on similarities in the storm's path through the Cyclone Phase Space (CPS). The differing clusters group various possible scenarios of structural development represented in the ensemble forecasts. As a result, it is possible to shed light on the role of the synoptic scale in changing the structure of this hurricane in the midlatitudes through intercomparison of the most "realistic" forecast of the evolution of Alex and the other physically plausible modes of its development.

Examples of, reasons for, and consequences of the poor quality of wind data from ships for the marine boundary layer: Implications for remote sensing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pierson, W.J. Jr.

1990-08-15

Wind reports by data buoys are used to demonstrate that these reports have in the past provided useful values for the synoptic scale winds and that at present these reports provide very reliable values for the synoptic scale winds. Past studies of wind reports by ships have revealed that the data are of poor quality, but the causes for this poor quality are not identified. Examples of the poor quality of wind data from ships are obtained by comparing ship reports with buoy reports and comparing reports of different kinds of ships with each other. These comparisons identify many differentmore » reasons for the poor quality of wind data from ships. Suggestions are made for improving the quality of ship data. The consequences of the poor quality of ship winds are described in terms of the effects on weather and wave forecasts. The implications for remotely sensed winds are discussed.« less

Atmospheric conditions create freeways, detours and tailbacks for migrating birds.

PubMed

Shamoun-Baranes, Judy; Liechti, Felix; Vansteelant, Wouter M G

2017-07-01

The extraordinary adaptations of birds to contend with atmospheric conditions during their migratory flights have captivated ecologists for decades. During the 21st century technological advances have sparked a revival of research into the influence of weather on migrating birds. Using biologging technology, flight behaviour is measured across entire flyways, weather radar networks quantify large-scale migratory fluxes, citizen scientists gather observations of migrant birds and mechanistic models are used to simulate migration in dynamic aerial environments. In this review, we first introduce the most relevant microscale, mesoscale and synoptic scale atmospheric phenomena from the point of view of a migrating bird. We then provide an overview of the individual responses of migrant birds (when, where and how to fly) in relation to these phenomena. We explore the cumulative impact of individual responses to weather during migration, and the consequences thereof for populations and migratory systems. In general, individual birds seem to have a much more flexible response to weather than previously thought, but we also note similarities in migratory behaviour across taxa. We propose various avenues for future research through which we expect to derive more fundamental insights into the influence of weather on the evolution of migratory behaviour and the life-history, population dynamics and species distributions of migrant birds.

Quantifying the imprint of mesoscale and synoptic-scale atmospheric transport on total column carbon dioxide measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres, A. D.; Keppel-Aleks, G.; Doney, S. C.; Feng, S.; Lauvaux, T.; Fendrock, M. A.; Rheuben, J.

2017-12-01

Remote sensing instruments provide an unprecedented density of observations of the atmospheric CO2 column average mole fraction (denoted as XCO2), which can be used to constrain regional scale carbon fluxes. Inferring fluxes from XCO2 observations is challenging, as measurements and inversion methods are sensitive to not only the imprint local and large-scale fluxes, but also mesoscale and synoptic-scale atmospheric transport. Quantifying the fine-scale variability in XCO2 from mesoscale and synoptic-scale atmospheric transport will likely improve overall error estimates from flux inversions by improving estimates of representation errors that occur when XCO2 observations are compared to modeled XCO2 in relatively coarse transport models. Here, we utilize various statistical methods to quantify the imprint of atmospheric transport on XCO2 observations. We compare spatial variations along Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) satellite tracks to temporal variations observed by the Total Column Carbon Observing Network (TCCON). We observe a coherent seasonal cycle of both within-day temporal and fine-scale spatial variability (of order 10 km) of XCO2 from these two datasets, suggestive of the imprint of mesoscale systems. To account for other potential sources of error in XCO2 retrieval, we compare observed temporal and spatial variations of XCO2 to high-resolution output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run at 9 km resolution. In both simulations and observations, the Northern hemisphere mid-latitude XCO2 showed peak variability during the growing season when atmospheric gradients are largest. These results are qualitatively consistent with our expectations of seasonal variations of the imprint of synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric transport on XCO2 observations; suggesting that these statistical methods could be sensitive to the imprint of atmospheric transport on XCO2 observations.

Relationships Among Atmospheric Rivers, Tropical Moisture Exports, and Warm Conveyor Belts over the Northeast Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cordeira, J. M.

2015-12-01

Extreme precipitation and attendant floods annually result in 80 fatalities and $5 Billion in damages across the U.S. and account for 50% of annual average U.S. natural disaster losses. The mechanisms that produce extreme precipitation are well known and are relatively well simulated by modern numerical weather prediction models in conjunction with synoptic-scale and mesoscale lift, instability, moisture, and boundaries. The focus of this presentation is on moisture in the form of synoptic-scale water vapor transport and its role in extreme precipitation along the U.S. West Coast. Many different terms have been used to describe synoptic-scale water vapor transport over the Northeast Pacific, including: moisture conveyor belts, warm conveyor belts, tropical moisture exports, tropical plumes, moisture plumes, pineapple express events, and atmospheric rivers. Each term respectively attempts to quantify or represent the propagation or instantaneous movement of water vapor from the Lagrangian and Eulerian frameworks in which they exist. These differences in frameworks often makes comparing and contrasting, for example, warm conveyor belts and atmospheric rivers difficult and may lead to misguided interpretations of long-range trans-oceanic water vapor transport. The purpose of this presentation is to discuss the dynamics of water vapor transport over the Northeast Pacific from the Eulerian and Lagrangian frameworks and illustrate to what degree the two- and three-dimensional structures of these rivers, exports, and belts overlap. Illustration of overlap between these processes will be shown via case study analysis of synoptic-scale water vapor transport over the Northeast Pacific that led to heavy precipitation along the U.S. West Coast during February 2014 and February 2015.

Characterizing Temperature Variability and Associated Large Scale Meteorological Patterns Across South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Detzer, J.; Loikith, P. C.; Mechoso, C. R.; Barkhordarian, A.; Lee, H.

2017-12-01

South America's climate varies considerably owing to its large geographic range and diverse topographical features. Spanning the tropics to the mid-latitudes and from high peaks to tropical rainforest, the continent experiences an array of climate and weather patterns. Due to this considerable spatial extent, assessing temperature variability at the continent scale is particularly challenging. It is well documented in the literature that temperatures have been increasing across portions of South America in recent decades, and while there have been many studies that have focused on precipitation variability and change, temperature has received less scientific attention. Therefore, a more thorough understanding of the drivers of temperature variability is critical for interpreting future change. First, k-means cluster analysis is used to identify four primary modes of temperature variability across the continent, stratified by season. Next, composites of large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) are calculated for months assigned to each cluster. Initial results suggest that LSMPs, defined using meteorological variables such as sea level pressure (SLP), geopotential height, and wind, are able to identify synoptic scale mechanisms important for driving temperature variability at the monthly scale. Some LSMPs indicate a relationship with known recurrent modes of climate variability. For example, composites of geopotential height suggest that the Southern Annular Mode is an important, but not necessarily dominant, component of temperature variability over southern South America. This work will be extended to assess the drivers of temperature extremes across South America.

A model to forecast short-term snowmelt runoff using synoptic observations of streamflow, temperature, and precipitation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tangborn, Wendell V.

1980-01-01

Snowmelt runoff is forecast with a statistical model that utilizes daily values of stream discharge, gaged precipitation, and maximum and minimum observations of air temperature. Synoptic observations of these variables are made at existing low- and medium-altitude weather stations, thus eliminating the difficulties and expense of new, high-altitude installations. Four model development steps are used to demonstrate the influence on prediction accuracy of basin storage, a preforecast test season, air temperature (to estimate ablation), and a prediction based on storage. Daily ablation is determined by a technique that employs both mean temperature and a radiative index. Radiation (both long- and short-wave components) is approximated by using the range in daily temperature, which is shown to be closely related to mean cloud cover. A technique based on the relationship between prediction error and prediction season weather utilizes short-term forecasts of precipitation and temperature to improve the final prediction. Verification of the model is accomplished by a split sampling technique for the 1960–1977 period. Short- term (5–15 days) predictions of runoff throughout the main snowmelt season are demonstrated for mountain drainages in western Washington, south-central Arizona, western Montana, and central California. The coefficient of prediction (Cp) based on actual, short-term predictions for 18 years is for Thunder Creek (Washington), 0.69; for South Fork Flathead River (Montana), 0.45; for the Black River (Arizona), 0.80; and for the Kings River (California), 0.80.

Large-Scale, Extratropical Weather Systems within Mars' Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

2013-04-01

During late autumn through early spring, extratropical regions on Mars exhibit profound mean zonal equator-to-pole thermal contrasts. The imposition of this strong meridional temperature variation supports intense eastward-traveling, synoptic weather systems (i.e., transient baroclinic/barotropic waves) within Mars' extratropical atmosphere. Such disturbances grow, mature and decay within the east-west varying seasonal-mean midlatitude jet stream (i.e., the polar vortex) on the planet. Near the surface, the weather disturbances indicated large-scale spiraling "comma"-shaped dust cloud structures and scimitar-shaped dust fronts, indicative of processes associated with cyclo-/fronto-genesis. The weather systems occur during specific seasons on Mars, and in both hemispheres. The northern hemisphere (NH) disturbances are significantly more intense than their counterparts in the southern hemisphere (SH). Further, the NH weather systems and accompanying frontal waves appear to have significant impacts on the transport of tracer fields (e.g., particularly dust and to some extent water species (vapor/ice) as well). And regarding dust, frontal waves appear to be key agents in the lifting, lofting, organization and transport of this particular atmospheric aerosol. In this paper, a brief background and supporting observations of Mars' extratropical weather systems is presented. This is followed by a short review of the theory and various modeling studies (i.e., ranging from highly simplified, mechanistic and full global circulation modeling investigations) which have been pursued. Finally, a discussion of outstanding issues and questions regarding the character and nature of Mars' extratropical traveling weather systems is offered.

Large-Scale Extratropical Weather Systems in Mars' Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

2013-01-01

During late autumn through early spring, extratropical regions on Mars exhibit profound mean zonal equator-to-pole thermal contrasts. The imposition of this strong meridional temperature variation supports intense eastward-traveling, synoptic weather systems (i.e., transient baroclinic/barotropic waves) within Mars' extratropical atmosphere. Such disturbances grow, mature and decay within the east-west varying seasonal-mean midlatitude jet stream (i.e., the polar vortex) on the planet. Near the surface, the weather disturbances indicated large-scale spiraling "comma"-shaped dust cloud structures and scimitar-shaped dust fronts, indicative of processes associated with cyclo-/fronto-genesis. The weather systems occur during specific seasons on Mars, and in both hemispheres. The northern hemisphere (NH) disturbances are significantly more intense than their counterparts in the southern hemisphere (SH). Further, the NH weather systems and accompanying frontal waves appear to have significant impacts on the transport of tracer fields (e.g., particularly dust and to some extent water species (vapor/ice) as well). And regarding dust, frontal waves appear to be key agents in the lifting, lofting, organization and transport of this particular atmospheric aerosol. In this paper, a brief background and supporting observations of Mars' extratropical weather systems is presented. This is followed by a short review of the theory and various modeling studies (i.e., ranging from highly simplified, mechanistic and full global circulation modeling investigations) which have been pursued. Finally, a discussion of outstanding issues and questions regarding the character and nature of Mars' extratropical traveling weather systems is offered.

Cloud cover determination in polar regions from satellite imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barry, R. G.; Key, J. R.; Maslanik, J. A.

1988-01-01

The principal objectives of this project are: (1) to develop suitable validation data sets to evaluate the effectiveness of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) operational algorithm for cloud retrieval in polar regions and to validate model simulations of polar cloud cover; (2) to identify limitations of current procedures for varying atmospheric surface conditions, and to explore potential means to remedy them using textural classifiers; and (3) to compare synoptic cloud data from a control run experiment of the GISS climate model II with typical observed synoptic cloud patterns.

Automated Identification of Coronal Holes from Synoptic EUV Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamada, Amr; Asikainen, Timo; Virtanen, Ilpo; Mursula, Kalevi

2018-04-01

Coronal holes (CHs) are regions of open magnetic field lines in the solar corona and the source of the fast solar wind. Understanding the evolution of coronal holes is critical for solar magnetism as well as for accurate space weather forecasts. We study the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) synoptic maps at three wavelengths (195 Å/193 Å, 171 Å and 304 Å) measured by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (SOHO/EIT) and the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA) instruments. The two datasets are first homogenized by scaling the SDO/AIA data to the SOHO/EIT level by means of histogram equalization. We then develop a novel automated method to identify CHs from these homogenized maps by determining the intensity threshold of CH regions separately for each synoptic map. This is done by identifying the best location and size of an image segment, which optimally contains portions of coronal holes and the surrounding quiet Sun allowing us to detect the momentary intensity threshold. Our method is thus able to adjust itself to the changing scale size of coronal holes and to temporally varying intensities. To make full use of the information in the three wavelengths we construct a composite CH distribution, which is more robust than distributions based on one wavelength. Using the composite CH dataset we discuss the temporal evolution of CHs during the Solar Cycles 23 and 24.

Wintertime Boundary Layer Structure in the Grand Canyon.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whiteman, C. David; Zhong, Shiyuan; Bian, Xindi

1999-08-01

Wintertime temperature profiles in the Grand Canyon exhibit a neutral to isothermal stratification during both daytime and nighttime, with only rare instances of actual temperature inversions. The canyon warms during daytime and cools during nighttime more or less uniformly through the canyon's entire depth. This weak stability and temperature structure evolution differ from other Rocky Mountain valleys, which develop strong nocturnal inversions and exhibit convective and stable boundary layers that grow upward from the valley floor. Mechanisms that may be responsible for the different behavior of the Grand Canyon are discussed, including the possibility that the canyon atmosphere is frequently mixed to near-neutral stratification when cold air drains into the top of the canyon from the nearby snow-covered Kaibab Plateau. Another feature of canyon temperature profiles is the sharp inversions that often form near the canyon rims. These are generally produced when warm air is advected over the canyon in advance of passing synoptic-scale ridges.Wintertime winds in the main canyon are not classical diurnal along-valley wind systems. Rather, they are driven along the canyon axis by the horizontal synoptic-scale pressure gradient that is superimposed along the canyon's axis by passing synoptic-scale weather disturbances. They may thus bring winds into the canyon from either end at any time of day.The implications of the observed canyon boundary layer structure for air pollution dispersion are discussed.

Relationship between atmospheric circulation weather types and seasonal precipitation in Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putniković, Suzana; Tošić, Ivana

2017-04-01

An automated version of the Lamb weather type classification scheme was used to classify daily circulation types over Serbia. The synoptic characteristics of 26 weather types and their relative frequencies are discussed for spring and autumn, complementing research previously published by Putniković et al. (Meteorol Atmos Phys 128:649-662, 2016) for winter and summer. Trends of the circulation types are presented, as well as precipitation trends during the period 1961-2010. Precipitation was modeled by the stepwise regression at six stations, defining weather types as independent variables. The anticyclonic (A) type is the most frequent class occurring in autumn (23.87%), displaying a positive trend for spring and significant negative trend for autumn. The frequencies of anticyclonic and cyclonic (C) types are almost the same for spring: 14.33 and 14.02%, respectively. The C type shows a significant negative trend only in spring. The increasing trend of the frequency of the C types and decreasing trend of the A types are in agreement with the increasing trend of precipitation in Serbia during autumn. Results suggest that the C type affects precipitation occurrence over most of the country, while the remaining 25 types provide more negligible or regional contributions to precipitation.

Relationship between Surface Urban Heat Island intensity and sensible heat flux retrieved from meteorological parameters observed by road weather stations in urban area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gawuć, Lech

2017-04-01

Urban Heat Island (UHI) is a direct consequence of altered energy balance in urban areas (Oke 1982). There has been a significant effort put into an understanding of air temperature variability in urban areas and underlying mechanisms (Arnfield 2003, Grimmond 2006, Stewart 2011, Barlow 2014). However, studies that are concerned on surface temperature are less frequent. Therefore, Voogt & Oke (2003) proposed term "Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI)", which is analogical to UHI and it is defined as a difference in land surface temperature (LST) between urban and rural areas. SUHI is a phenomenon that is not only concerned with high spatial variability, but also with high temporal variability (Weng and Fu 2014). In spite of the fact that satellite remote sensing techniques give a full spatial pattern over a vast area, such measurements are strictly limited to cloudless conditions during a satellite overpass (Sobrino et al., 2012). This significantly reduces the availability and applicability of satellite LST observations, especially over areas and seasons with high cloudiness occurrence. Also, the surface temperature is influenced by synoptic conditions (e.g., wind and humidity) (Gawuc & Struzewska 2016). Hence, utilising single observations is not sufficient to obtain a full image of spatiotemporal variability of urban LST and SUHI intensity (Gawuc & Struzewska 2016). One of the possible solutions would be a utilisation of time-series of LST data, which could be useful to monitor the UHI growth of individual cities and thus, to reveal the impact of urbanisation on local climate (Tran et al., 2006). The relationship between UHI and synoptic conditions have been summarised by Arnfield (2003). However, similar analyses conducted for urban LST and SUHI are lacking. We will present analyses of the relationship between time series of remotely-sensed LST and SUHI intensity and in-situ meteorological observations collected by road weather stations network, namely: road surface kinetic temperature, wind speed, air temperature, soil temperature at a depth of 30 cm, road surface condition, relative humidity. Also, as there are wind speed and temperature observations at different heights available, we will calculate sensible heat flux in order to relate it to the intensity of SUHI.

Comparing Stable Water Isotope Variation in Atmospheric Moisture Observed over Coastal Water and Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, C. T.; Rambo, J. P.; Welp, L. R.; Bible, K.; Hollinger, D. Y.

2014-12-01

Stable oxygen (δ18O) and hydrogen (δD) isotopologues of atmospheric moisture are strongly influenced by large-scale synoptic weather cycles, surface evapotranspiration and boundary layer mixing. Atmospheric water isotope variation has been shown to empirically relate to relative humidity (Rh) of near surface moisture, and to a less degree, air temperature. Continuous δ18O and δD measurements are becoming more available, providing new opportunities to investigate processes that control isotope variability. This study shows the comparison of δ18O and δD measured at a continental location and over coastal waters for 3 seasons (spring to fall, 2014). The surface moisture isotope measurements were made using two LGR spectroscopy water vapor isotope analyzers (Los Gatos Research Inc.), one operated in an old-growth coniferous forest at Wind River field station, WA (45.8205°N, 121.9519°W), and another sampling marine air over seawater at the Scripps Pier in San Diego, CA (32.8654°N, 117.2536°W), USA. Isotope variations were measured at 1Hz and data were reported as hourly averages with an overall accuracy of ±0.1‰ for δ18O, ±0.5‰ for δ2H. Day-to-day variations in δ18O and δD are shown strongly influenced by synoptic weather events at both locations. Boundary layer mixing between surface moisture and the dry air entrained from the free troposphere exerts a midday maximum and a consistent diel pattern in deuterium excess (dx). At the forest site, surface moisture also interacts with leaf water through transpiration during the day and re-equilibration at night. The latter occurs by retro-diffusion of atmospheric H2O molecules into leaf intercellular space, which becomes intensified as Rh increaes after nightfall, and continues until sunrise, to counter-balance the evaporative isotopic enrichment in leaf water on a daily basis. These vegetation effects lead to negative dx values consistently observed at nighttime in this continental location that were not seen in marine air. This study shows strong evidence suggesting the utility of applying these isotope tracers and, provides data to quantify atmospheric moisture variability in land surface models.

A new precipitation and drought climatology based on weather patterns

PubMed Central

Fowler, Hayley J.; Kilsby, Christopher G.; Neal, Robert

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Weather‐pattern, or weather‐type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterize the broad‐scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. This study analyses the aspects of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a new set of objectively defined weather patterns. These new patterns are currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to Lamb weather types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn. Daily precipitation distributions are associated with each weather pattern and LWT. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and drought severity index (DSI) series are calculated for a range of aggregation periods and seasons. Monthly weather‐pattern frequency anomalies are calculated for SPI wet and dry periods and for the 5% most intense DSI‐based drought months. The new weather‐pattern definitions and daily occurrences largely agree with their respective LWTs, allowing comparison between the two classifications. There is also broad agreement between weather pattern and LWT changes in frequencies. The new data set is shown to be adequate for precipitation‐based analyses in the UK, although a smaller set of clustered weather patterns is not. Furthermore, intra‐pattern precipitation variability is lower in the new classification compared to the LWTs, which is an advantage in this context. Six of the new weather patterns are associated with drought over the entire UK, with several other patterns linked to regional drought. It is demonstrated that the new data set of weather patterns offers a new opportunity for classification‐based analyses in the UK. PMID:29456290

Evaluating the predictability of PM10 grades in Seoul, Korea using a neural network model based on synoptic patterns.

PubMed

Hur, Sun-Kyong; Oh, Hye-Ryun; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Kim, Jinwon; Song, Chang-Keun; Chang, Lim-Seok; Lee, Jae-Bum

2016-11-01

As of November 2014, the Korean Ministry of Environment (KME) has been forecasting the concentration of particulate matter with diameters ≤ 10 μm (PM 10 ) classified into four grades: low (PM 10  ≤ 30 μg m -3 ), moderate (30 < PM 10  ≤ 80 μg m -3 ), high (80 < PM 10  ≤ 150 μg m -3 ), and very high (PM 10  > 150 μg m -3 ). The KME operational center generates PM 10 forecasts using statistical and chemistry-transport models, but the overall performance and the hit rate for the four PM 10 grades has not previously been evaluated. To provide a statistical reference for the current air quality forecasting system, we have developed a neural network model based on the synoptic patterns of several meteorological fields such as geopotential height, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind. Hindcast of the four PM 10 grades in Seoul, Korea was performed for the cold seasons (October-March) of 2001-2014 when the high and very high PM 10 grades are frequently observed. Because synoptic patterns of the meteorological fields are distinctive for each PM 10 grade, these fields were adopted and quantified as predictors in the form of cosine similarities to train the neural network model. Using these predictors in conjunction with the PM 10 concentration in Seoul from the day before prediction as an additional predictor, an overall hit rate of 69% was achieved; the hit rates for the low, moderate, high, and very high PM 10 grades were 33%, 83%, 45%, and 33%, respectively. Our findings also suggest that the synoptic patterns of meteorological variables are reliable predictors for the identification of the favorable conditions for each PM 10 grade, as well as for the transboundary transport of PM 10 from China. This evaluation of PM 10 predictability can be reliably used as a statistical reference and further, complement to the current air quality forecasting system. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

AVE/VAS 3: 25-mb sounding data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sienkiewicz, M. E.

1982-01-01

The rawinsonde sounding program for the AVE/VAS 3 experiment is described. Tabulated data are presented at 25-mb intervals for the 24 National Weather Service stations and 14 special stations participating in the experiment. Soundings were taken at 3-hr intervals, beginning at 1200 GMT on March 27, 1982, and ending at 0600 GMT on March 28, 1982 (7 sounding times). An additional sounding was taken at the National Weather Service stations at 1200 GMT on March 28, 1982, at the normal synoptic observation time. The method of processing soundings is briefly discussed, estimates of the RMS errors in the data are presented, and an example of contact data is given. Termination pressures of soundings taken in the mesos-beta-scale network are tabulated, as are observations of ground temperature at a depth of 2 cm.

Moist synoptic transport of carbon dioxide along midlatitude storm tracks, transport uncertainty, and implications for carbon dioxide flux estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parazoo, Nicholas C.

Mass transport along moist isentropic surfaces on baroclinic waves represents an important component of the atmospheric heat engine that operates between the equator and poles. This is also an important vehicle for tracer transport, and is correlated with ecosystem metabolism because large-scale baroclinicity and photosynthesis are both driven seasonally by variations in solar radiation. In this research, I pursue a dynamical framework for explaining atmospheric transport of CO2 by synoptic weather systems at middle and high latitudes. A global model of atmospheric tracer transport, driven by meteorological analysis in combination with a detailed description of surface fluxes, is used to create time varying CO2 distributions in the atmosphere. Simulated mass fluxes of CO2 are then decomposed into a zonal monthly mean component and deviations from the monthly mean in space and time. Mass fluxes of CO2 are described on moist isentropic surfaces to represent frontal transport along storm tracks. Forward simulations suggest that synoptic weather systems transport large amounts of CO2 north and south in northern mid-latitudes, up to 1 PgC month-1 during winter when baroclinic wave activity peaks. During boreal winter when northern plants respire, warm moist air, high in CO2, is swept upward and poleward along the east side of baroclinic waves and injected into the polar vortex, while cold dry air, low in CO 2, that had been transported into the polar vortex earlier in the year is advected equatorward. These synoptic eddies act to strongly reduce seasonality of CO2 in the biologically active mid-latitudes by 50% of that implied by local net ecosystem exchange while correspondingly amplifying seasonality in the Arctic. Transport along stormtracks is correlated with rising, moist, cloudy air, which systematically hides this CO2 transport from satellite observing systems. Meridional fluxes of CO2 are of comparable magnitude as surface exchange of CO2 in mid-latitudes, and thus require careful consideration in (inverse) modeling of the carbon cycle. Because synoptic transport of CO2 by frontal systems and moist processes is generally unobserved and poorly represented in global models, it may be a source of error for inverse flux estimates. Uncertainty in CO 2 transport by synoptic eddies is investigated using a global model driven by four reanalysis products from the Goddard EOS Data Assimilation System for 2005. Eddy transport is found to be highly variable between model analysis, with significant seasonal differences of up to 0.2 PgC, which represents up to 50% of fossil fuel emissions. The variations are caused primarily by differences in grid spacing and vertical mixing by moist convection and PBL turbulence. To test for aliasing of transport bias into inverse flux estimates, synthetic satellite data is generated using a model at 50 km global resolution and inverted using a global model run with coarse grid transport. An ensemble filtering method called the Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Filter (MLEF) is used to optimize fluxes. Flux estimates are found to be highly sensitive to transport biases at pixel and continental scale, with errors of up to 0.5 PgC year-1 in Europe and North America.

Meteorological Drivers of West Antarctic Ice Sheet and Ice Shelf Surface Melt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, R. C.; Nicolas, J. P.; Bromwich, D. H.; Norris, J. R.; Lubin, D.

2017-12-01

We identify synoptic patterns and surface energy balance components driving warming and surface melting on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and ice shelves using reanalysis and satellite remote sensing data from 1973-present. We have developed a synoptic climatology of atmospheric circulation patterns during the summer melt season using k-means cluster and composite analysis of daily 700-mb geopotential height and near-surface air temperature and wind fields from the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis. Surface melt occurrence is detected in satellite passive microwave brightness temperature observations (K-band, horizontal polarization) beginning with the NASA Nimbus-5 Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer (ESMR) and continuing with its more familiar descendants SMMR, SSM/I and SSMIS. To diagnose synoptic precursors and physical processes driving surface melt we combine the circulation climatology and multi-decadal records of cloud cover with surface radiative fluxes from the Extended AVHRR Polar Pathfinder (APP-x) project. We identify three distinct modes of regional summer West Antarctic warming since 1979 involving anomalous ridging over West Antarctica (WA) and the Amundsen Sea (AS). During the 1970s, ESMR data reveal four extensive melt events on the Ross Sea sector of the WAIS also linked to AS blocking. We therefore define an Amundsen Sea Blocking Index (ASBI). The ASBI and synoptic circulation pattern occurrence frequencies are correlated with the tropical Pacific (ENSO) and high latitude Southern Annular Mode (SAM) indices and the West Antarctic melt index. Surface melt in WA is favored by enhanced downwelling infrared and turbulent sensible heat fluxes associated with intrusions of warm, moist marine air. Consistent with recent findings from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE), marine advection to the Ross sector is favored by El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific and a negative SAM. We also find that El Niño-related blocking favors warming and melting on the marine-based ice streams draining from Wilkes Basin, East Antarctica.

Clustering of Synoptic Pattern over the Korean Peninsula from Meteorological Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jinah; Heo, Kiyoung; Choi, Jungwoon; Jung, Sanghoon

2017-04-01

Numerical modeling data on meteorological and ocean science is one of example of big geographic data sources. The properties of the data including the volume, variety, and dynamic aspects pose new challenges for geographic visualization, and visual geoanalytics using big data analysis using machine learning method. A combination of algorithmic and visual approaches that make sense of large volumes of various types of spatiotemporal data are required to gain knowledge about complex phenomena. In the East coast of Korea, it is suffering from property damages and human causalities due to abnormal high waves (swell-like high-height waves). It is known to be caused by local meteorological conditions on the East Sea of Korean Peninsula in previous research and they proposed three kinds of pressure patterns that generate abnormal high waves. However, they cannot describe all kinds of pressure patterns that generate abnormal high waves. In our study, we propose unsupervised machine learning method for pattern clustering and applied it to classify a pattern which has occurred abnormal high waves using numerical meteorological model's reanalysis data from 2000 to 2015 and past historical records of accidents by abnormal high waves. About 25,000 patterns of total spatial distribution of sea surface pressure are clustered into 30 patterns and they are classified into seasonal sea level pressure patterns based on meteorological characteristics of Korean peninsula. Moreover, in order to determine the representative patterns which occurs abnormal high waves, we classified it again using historical accidents cases among the winter season pressure patterns. In this work, we clustered synoptic pattern over the Korean Peninsula in meteorological modeling reanalysis data and we could understand a seasonal variation through identifying the occurrence of clustered synoptic pattern. For the future work, we have to identify the relationship of wave modeling data for better understanding of abnormal high waves and we will develop pattern decision system to predict abnormal high waves in advances. This research was a part of the project titled "Development of Korea Operational Oceanographic System (KOOS), Phase 2" and "Investigation of Large Swell Waves and Rip currents and Development of The Disaster Response System," funded by the Ministry of Oceans & Fisheries Korea (Grant PM59691 and PM59240).

Proceedings of the International Meteorological Satellite Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1962-01-01

International Meteorological Satellite Workshop, November 13-22, 1961, presented the results of the meteorological satellite program of the United States and the possibilities for the future, so that-- the weather services of other nations may acquire a working knowledge of meteorological satellite data for assistance in their future analysis programs both in research and in daily synoptic application and guidance in their national observational support efforts; the world meteorological community may become more familiar with the TIROS program.; and the present activity may be put in proper perspective relative to future operational programs.

The proposed flatland radar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, J. L.; Gage, K. S.; Vanzandt, T. E.; Nastrom, G. D.

1986-01-01

A flexible very high frequency (VHF) stratosphere-troposphere (ST) radar configured for meteorological research is to be constructed near Urbana, Illinois. Measurement of small vertical velocities associated with synoptic-scale meteorology can be performed. A large Doppler microwave radar (CHILL) is located a few km from the site of the proposed ST radar. Since the microwave radar can measure the location and velocity of hydrometeors and the VHF ST radar can measure clear (or cloudy) air velocities, simultaneous observations by these two radars of stratiform or convective weather systems would provide valuable meteorological information.

Analysis of Summer Thunderstorms in Central Alabama Using the NASA Land Information System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, Robert; Case, Jonathan; Molthan, Andrew; Jedloved, Gary

2010-01-01

Forecasters have difficulty predicting "random" afternoon thunderstorms during the summer months. Differences in soil characteristics could be a contributing factor for storms. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) may assist forecasters in predicting summer convection by identifying boundaries in land characteristics. This project identified case dates during the summer of 2009 by analyzing synoptic weather maps, radar, and satellite data to look for weak atmospheric forcing and disorganized convective development. Boundaries in land characteristics that may have lead to convective initiation in central Alabama were then identified using LIS.

Improving UK Air Quality Modelling Through Exploitation of Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, Richard; Chipperfield, Martyn; Savage, Nick

2014-05-01

In this work the applicability of satellite observations to evaluate the operational UK Met Office Air Quality in the Unified Model (AQUM) have been investigated. The main focus involved the AQUM validation against satellite observations, investigation of satellite retrieval error types and of synoptic meteorological-atmospheric chemistry relationships simulated/seen by the AQUM/satellite. The AQUM is a short range forecast model of atmospheric chemistry and aerosols up to 5 days. It has been designed to predict potentially hazardous air pollution events, e.g. high concentrations of surface ozone. The AQUM has only been validated against UK atmospheric chemistry recording surface stations. Therefore, satellite observations of atmospheric chemistry have been used to further validate the model, taking advantage of better satellite spatial coverage. Observations of summer and winter 2006 tropospheric column NO2 from both OMI and SCIAMACHY show that the AQUM generally compares well with the observations. However, in northern England positive biases (AQUM - satellite) suggest that the AQUM overestimates column NO2; we present results of sensitivity experiments on UK emissions datasets suspected to be the cause. In winter, the AQUM over predicts background column NO2 when compared to both satellite instruments. We hypothesise that the cause is the AQUM winter night-time chemistry, where the NO2 sinks are not substantially defined. Satellite data are prone to errors/uncertainty such as random, systematic and smoothing errors. We have investigated these error types and developed an algorithm to calculate and reduce the random error component of DOAS NO2 retrievals, giving more robust seasonal satellite composites. The Lamb Weather Types (LWT), an objective method of classifying the daily synoptic weather over the UK, were used to create composite satellite maps of column NO2 under different synoptic conditions. Under cyclonic conditions, satellite observed UK column NO2 is reduced as the indicative south-westerly flow transports it away from the UK over the North Sea. However, under anticyclonic conditions, the satellite shows that the stable conditions enhance the build-up of column NO2 over source regions. The influence of wind direction on column NO2 can also be seen from space with transport leeward of the source regions.

Groundwater Contributions to Intermittent Streamflow in a Headwater Catchment: How do Geoclimatic Controls Influence Downstream Water Quality?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smull, E. M.; Gooseff, M. N.; Singha, K.

2014-12-01

Hydrologic connectivity of headwater catchments affects surface water yield and quality of downstream drinking water supplies. Lower Gordon Gulch, a 2.75 km2 catchment, is part of the Boulder Creek watershed - the primary drinking water supply for the city of Boulder, Colorado. We hypothesize that the geologic and climatic environment within the catchment controls the magnitude, timing, and duration of hydrologic connection between the landscape and the stream, and thus the distribution of major ions to the surface water. Specifically, bedrock patterns, vegetation type and density, and snowpack dynamics influence how precipitation inputs move from the hillslopes to the catchment outlet. Preliminary results suggest that north-facing hillslopes with steeper slopes, deeper weathering of bedrock, denser vegetation stands, and a seasonal snowpack, provide consistently greater groundwater inputs to the stream compared to the south-facing hillslopes. We believe that this is in part due to subsurface bedrock patterns forcing a dominate cross-valley gradient. Through an extensive observation network of hillslope wells, periodic stream water balance measurements, and synoptic chemistry samples, we plan to continue our assessment of the spatio-temporal connectivity dynamics throughout the seasonal dry down (late summer through winter), during which streamflow can be intermittent. Results will help to guide landuse practices of upland catchments with respect to their role in Boulder's drinking water supply.

The Role of Evapotranspiration on Soil Moisture Depletion in a Small Alaskan Subarctic Farm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruairuen, W.; Fochesatto, G. J.; Sparrow, E. B.; Schnabel, W.; Zhang, M.

2013-12-01

At high latitudes the period for agriculture production is very short (110 frost-free days) and strongly depends on the availability of soil water content for vegetables to grow. In this context the evapotranspiration (ET) cycle is key variable underpinning mass and energy balance modulating therefore moisture gradients and soil dryness. Evapotranspiration (ET) from field-grown crops water stress is virtually unknown in the subarctic region. Understanding ET cycles in high latitude agricultural ecosystem is essential in terms of water management and sustainability and projection of agricultural activity. To investigate the ET cycle in farming soils a field experiment was conducted in the summer of 2012 and 2013 at the University of Alaska Fairbanks Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station combining micrometeorological and hydrological measurements. In this case experimental plots of lettuce (Lactuca sativa) plants were grown. The experiment evaluated several components of the ET cycle such as actual evapotranspiration, reference evaporation, pan evaporation as well as soil water content and temperature profiles to link them to the vegetable growing functions. We investigated the relationship of soil moisture content and crop water use across the growing season as a function of the ET cycle. Soil water depletion was compared to daily estimates of water loss by ET during dry and wet periods. We also investigated the dependence of ET on the atmospheric boundary layer flow patterns set by the synoptic large scale weather patterns.

Cloud cover determination in polar regions from satellite imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barry, R. G.; Key, J. R.; Maslanik, J. A.

1988-01-01

The principal objectives of this project are: to develop suitable validation data sets to evaluate the effectiveness of the ISCCP operational algorithm for cloud retrieval in polar regions and to validate model simulations of polar cloud cover; to identify limitations of current procedures for varying atmospheric surface conditions, and to explore potential means to remedy them using textural classifiers: and to compare synoptic cloud data from a control run experiment of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model 2 with typical observed synoptic cloud patterns. Current investigations underway are listed and the progress made to date is summarized.

Improved forecasts of winter weather extremes over midlatitudes with extra Arctic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, Kazutoshi; Inoue, Jun; Yamazaki, Akira; Kim, Joo-Hong; Maturilli, Marion; Dethloff, Klaus; Hudson, Stephen R.; Granskog, Mats A.

2017-02-01

Recent cold winter extremes over Eurasia and North America have been considered to be a consequence of a warming Arctic. More accurate weather forecasts are required to reduce human and socioeconomic damages associated with severe winters. However, the sparse observing network over the Arctic brings errors in initializing a weather prediction model, which might impact accuracy of prediction results at midlatitudes. Here we show that additional Arctic radiosonde observations from the Norwegian young sea ICE expedition (N-ICE2015) drifting ice camps and existing land stations during winter improved forecast skill and reduced uncertainties of weather extremes at midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. For two winter storms over East Asia and North America in February 2015, ensemble forecast experiments were performed with initial conditions taken from an ensemble atmospheric reanalysis in which the observation data were assimilated. The observations reduced errors in initial conditions in the upper troposphere over the Arctic region, yielding more precise prediction of the locations and strengths of upper troughs and surface synoptic disturbances. Errors and uncertainties of predicted upper troughs at midlatitudes would be brought with upper level high potential vorticity (PV) intruding southward from the observed Arctic region. This is because the PV contained a "signal" of the additional Arctic observations as it moved along an isentropic surface. This suggests that a coordinated sustainable Arctic observing network would be effective not only for regional weather services but also for reducing weather risks in locations distant from the Arctic.

Can preferred atmospheric circulation patterns over the North-Atlantic-Eurasian region be associated with arctic sea ice loss?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crasemann, Berit; Handorf, Dörthe; Jaiser, Ralf; Dethloff, Klaus; Nakamura, Tetsu; Ukita, Jinro; Yamazaki, Koji

2017-12-01

In the framework of atmospheric circulation regimes, we study whether the recent Arctic sea ice loss and Arctic Amplification are associated with changes in the frequency of occurrence of preferred atmospheric circulation patterns during the extended winter season from December to March. To determine regimes we applied a cluster analysis to sea-level pressure fields from reanalysis data and output from an atmospheric general circulation model. The specific set up of the two analyzed model simulations for low and high ice conditions allows for attributing differences between the simulations to the prescribed sea ice changes only. The reanalysis data revealed two circulation patterns that occur more frequently for low Arctic sea ice conditions: a Scandinavian blocking in December and January and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern in February and March. An analysis of related patterns of synoptic-scale activity and 2 m temperatures provides a synoptic interpretation of the corresponding large-scale regimes. The regimes that occur more frequently for low sea ice conditions are resembled reasonably well by the model simulations. Based on those results we conclude that the detected changes in the frequency of occurrence of large-scale circulation patterns can be associated with changes in Arctic sea ice conditions.

Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events

PubMed Central

Mann, Michael E.; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A.; Miller, Sonya K.; Coumou, Dim

2017-01-01

Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6–8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art (“CMIP5”) historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability. PMID:28345645

Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Science and Prediction Initiatives of the NOAA MAPP Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Archambault, H. M.; Barrie, D.; Mariotti, A.

2016-12-01

There is great practical interest in developing predictions beyond the 2-week weather timescale. Scientific communities have historically organized themselves around the weather and climate problems, but the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale range overall is recognized as new territory for which a concerted shared effort is needed. For instance, the climate community, as part of programs like CLIVAR, has historically tackled coupled phenomena and modeling, keys to harnessing predictability on longer timescales. In contrast, the weather community has focused on synoptic dynamics, higher-resolution modeling, and enhanced model initialization, of importance at the shorter timescales and especially for the prediction of extremes. The processes and phenomena specific to timescales between weather and climate require a unified approach to science, modeling, and predictions. Internationally, the WWRP/WCRP S2S Prediction Project is a promising catalyzer for these types of activities. Among the various contributing U.S. research programs, the Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) program, as part of the NOAA Climate Program Office, has launched coordinated research and transition activities that help to meet the agency's goals to fill the weather-to-climate prediction gap and will contribute to advance international goals. This presentation will describe ongoing MAPP program S2S science and prediction initiatives, specifically the MAPP S2S Task Force and the SubX prediction experiment.

Synoptic circulation and temperature pattern during severe wildland fires

Treesearch

Warren E. Heilman

1996-01-01

Large-scale changes in the atmosphere associated with a globally changed climate and changes in climatic variability may have important regional impacts on the frequency and severity of wildland fires in the future.

A methodology to leverage cross-sectional accelerometry to capture weather's influence in active living research.

PubMed

Katapally, Tarun R; Rainham, Daniel; Muhajarine, Nazeem

2016-06-27

While active living interventions focus on modifying urban design and built environment, weather variation, a phenomenon that perennially interacts with these environmental factors, is consistently underexplored. This study's objective is to develop a methodology to link weather data with existing cross-sectional accelerometry data in capturing weather variation. Saskatoon's neighbourhoods were classified into grid-pattern, fractured grid-pattern and curvilinear neighbourhoods. Thereafter, 137 Actical accelerometers were used to derive moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and sedentary behaviour (SB) data from 455 children in 25 sequential one-week cycles between April and June, 2010. This sequential deployment was necessary to overcome the difference in the ratio between the sample size and the number of accelerometers. A data linkage methodology was developed, where each accelerometry cycle was matched with localized (Saskatoon-specific) weather patterns derived from Environment Canada. Statistical analyses were conducted to depict the influence of urban design on MVPA and SB after factoring in localized weather patterns. Integration of cross-sectional accelerometry with localized weather patterns allowed the capture of weather variation during a single seasonal transition. Overall, during the transition from spring to summer in Saskatoon, MVPA increased and SB decreased during warmer days. After factoring in localized weather, a recurring observation was that children residing in fractured grid-pattern neighbourhoods accumulated significantly lower MVPA and higher SB. The proposed methodology could be utilized to link globally available cross-sectional accelerometry data with place-specific weather data to understand how built and social environmental factors interact with varying weather patterns in influencing active living.

Climate Throughout Geologic Time Was Cooled by Sequences of Explosive Volcanic Eruptions Forming Aerosols That Reflect and Scatter Ultraviolet Solar Radiation and Warmed by Relatively Continuous Extrusion of Basaltic Lava that Depletes Ozone, Allowing More Solar Ultraviolet Radiation to Reach Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, P. L.

2015-12-01

Active volcanoes of all sizes and eruptive styles, emit chlorine and bromine gases observed to deplete ozone. Effusive, basaltic volcanic eruptions, typical in Hawaii and Iceland, extrude large lava flows, depleting ozone and causing global warming. Major explosive volcanoes also deplete ozone with the same emissions, causing winter warming, but in addition eject megatons of water and sulfur dioxide into the lower stratosphere where they form sulfuric-acid aerosols whose particles grow large enough to reflect and scatter ultraviolet sunlight, causing net global cooling for a few years. The relative amounts of explosive and effusive volcanism are determined by the configuration of tectonic plates moving around Earth's surface. Detailed studies of climate change throughout geologic history, and since 1965, are not well explained by greenhouse-gas theory, but are explained quite clearly at OzoneDepletionTheory.info. Ozone concentrations vary substantially by the minute and show close relationships to weather system highs and lows (as pointed out by Dobson in the 1920s), to the height of the tropopause, and to the strength and location of polar vortices and jet streams. Integrating the effects of volcanism on ozone concentrations and the effects of ozone concentrations on synoptic weather patterns should improve weather forecasting. For example, the volcano Bárðarbunga, in central Iceland, extruded 85 km2 of basaltic lava between August 29, 2014, and February 28, 2015, having a profound effect on weather. Most surprising, more than a week before the March 4 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, substantial amounts of ozone were released in the vicinity of the volcano precisely when surface deformation showed that magma first began moving up from sills below 4 km depth. Ozone similarly appears to have been emitted 3.5 months before the Pinatubo eruption in 1991. Readily available daily maps of ozone concentrations may allow early warning of an imminent volcanic eruption.

Simulated life cycles of persistent anticyclonic anomalies over the North Pacific: Role of synoptic-scale eddies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Higgins, R. W.; Schubert, S. D.

1994-01-01

This study examines the role of synoptic-scale eddies during the development of persistent anticyclonic height anomalies over the central North Pacific in a general circulation model under perpetual January conditions. The General Circulation Model (GCM) replicates the basic characteristics of the evolution of the anomaly patterns found in observations. The life cycle is characterized by the rapid establishment of the major anomaly center and considerably longer maintenance and decay phases, which include the development of downstream anomaly centers. The simulation also shows a realistic evolution of synoptic-scale activity beginning with enhanced activity off the east coast of Asia prior to onset, followed by a northward shift of the Pacific storm track, which lasts throughout the maintenance phase. The initial enhancement of synoptic-scale eddy activity is associated with a large-scale cyclonic anomaly that developes over Siberia several days prior to the onset of the main anticyclonic anomaly over the central North Pacific. The observations, however, show considerable interdecadel variability in the details of the composite onset behavior; it is unclear whether this variability is real or whether it reflects differences in the data assimilation systems. The role of the time mean flow and synoptic-scale eddies in the development of the persistent Pacific anomalies is studied within the context of a kinetic energy budget in which the flow is decomposed into the time-mean, low-frequency (timescales longer than 10 days), and synoptic (timescales less than 6 days) components. The budget, which is carried out for the simulation at 500 mb, shows that the initial growth of the persistent anticyclonic anomalies is associated with barotropic conversions of energy, with approximately equal contributions coming from the mean flow and the synoptic-scale eddies. After onset the barotropic conversion from the mean flow dominates, whereas the decay phase is associated with baroclinic processes within the low-frequency flow.

Characteristics of atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme temperatures over North America in observations and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.

Motivated by a desire to understand the physical mechanisms involved in future anthropogenic changes in extreme temperature events, the key atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme daily temperatures over North America in the current climate are identified. Several novel metrics are used to systematically identify and describe these patterns for the entire continent. The orientation, physical characteristics, and spatial scale of these circulation patterns vary based on latitude, season, and proximity to important geographic features (i.e., mountains, coastlines). The anomaly patterns associated with extreme cold events tend to be similar to, but opposite in sign of, those associated with extreme warm events, especially within the westerlies, and tend to scale with temperature in the same locations. The influence of the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on extreme temperature days and months shows that associations between extreme temperatures and the PNA and NAM are stronger than associations with ENSO. In general, the association with extremes tends to be stronger on monthly than daily time scales. Extreme temperatures are associated with the PNA and NAM in locations typically influenced by these circulation patterns; however many extremes still occur on days when the amplitude and polarity of these patterns do not favor their occurrence. In winter, synoptic-scale, transient weather disturbances are important drivers of extreme temperature days; however these smaller-scale events are often concurrent with amplified PNA or NAM patterns. Associations are weaker in summer when other physical mechanisms affecting the surface energy balance, such as anomalous soil moisture content, are associated with extreme temperatures. Analysis of historical runs from seventeen climate models from the CMIP5 database suggests that most models simulate realistic circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days in most places. Model-simulated patterns tend to resemble observed patterns better in the winter than the summer and at 500 hPa than at the surface. There is substantial variability among the suite of models analyzed and most models simulate circulation patterns more realistically away from influential features such as large bodies of water and complex topography.

The role of atmospheric circulation patterns on short-term sea-level fluctuations along the eastern seaboard of the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, S. C.; Lee, C. C.; Pirhalla, D.; Ransi, V.

2017-12-01

Sea-level fluctuations over time are a product of short-term weather events, as well as long-term secular trends in sea-level rise. With sea-levl rise, these fluctuations increasingly have substantial impacts upon coastal ecosystems and impact society through coastal flooding events. In this research, we assess the impact of short-term events, combined with sea-level rise, through synoptic climatological analysis, exploring whether circulation pattern identification can be used to enhance probabilistic forecasts of flood likelihood. Self-organizing maps (SOMs) were created for two discrete atmospheric variables: 700-hPa geopotential height (700z) and sea-level pressure (SLP). For each variable, a SOM array of patterns was created based on data spanning 25°-50°N and 60°-90°W for the period 1979-2014. Sea-level values were derived from tidal gauges between Cape May, New Jersey and Charleston, South Carolina, along the mid-Atlantic coast of the US. Both anomalous sea-level values, as well as nuisance flood occurrence (defined using the local gauge threshold), were assessed. Results show the impacts of both the inverted barometer effect as well as surface wind forcing on sea levels. With SLP, higher sea levels are associated with either patterns that were indicative of on-shore flow or cyclones. At 700z, ridges situated along the east coast are associated with higher sea levels. As the SOM matrix arranges atmospheric patterns in a continuum, the nodes of each SOM show a clear spatial pattern in terms of anomalous sea level, including some significant sea-level anomalies associated with relatively ambiguous pressure patterns. Further, multi-day transitions are also analyzed, showing rapidly deepening cyclones, or persistent onshore flow, can be associated with the greatest likelihood of nuisance floods. Results are weaker with 700z than SLP; however, in some cases, it is clear that the mid-tropospheric circulation can modulate the connection between sea-level anomalies and surface circulation.

COSMIC Payload in NCAR-NASPO GPS Satellite System for Severe Weather Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai-Chen, C.

Severe weather, such as cyclones, heavy rainfall, outburst of cold air, etc., results in great disaster all the world. It is the mission for the scientists to design a warning system, to predict the severe weather systems and to reduce the damage of the society. In Taiwan, National Satellite Project Office (NSPO) initiated ROCSAT-3 program at 1997. She scheduled the Phase I conceptual design to determine the mission for observation weather system. Cooperating with National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NSPO involved an international cooperation research and operation program to build a 32 GPS satellites system. NCAR will offer 24 GPS satellites. The total expanse will be US 100 millions. NSPO also provide US 80 millions for launching and system engineering operation. And NCAR will be responsible for Payload Control Center and Fiducial Network. The cooperative program contract has been signed by Taiwan National Science Council, Taipei Economic Cultural Office of United States and American Institute in Taiwan. One of the payload is COSMIC, Constellation Observation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate. It is a GPS meteorology instrument system. The system will observe the weather information, e. g. electron density profiles, horizontal and vertical TEC and CFT scintillation and communication outage maps. The mission is to obtain the weather data such as vertical temperature profiles, water vapor distribution and pressure distribution over the world for global weather forecasting, especially during the severe weather period. The COSMIC Conference held on November, 1998. The export license was also issued by Department of Commerce of Unites States at November, 1998. Recently, NSPO begun to train their scientists to investigate the system. Scientists simulate the observation data to combine the existing routine satellite infrared cloud maps, radar echo and synoptic weather analysis for severe weather forecasting. It is hopeful to provide more accurate weather analysis for forecasting and decreasing the damage of the disasters over the area concerned.

Air Quality and Meteorological Boundary Conditions during the MCMA-2003 Field Campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sosa, G.; Arriaga, J.; Vega, E.; Magaña, V.; Caetano, E.; de Foy, B.; Molina, L. T.; Molina, M. J.; Ramos, R.; Retama, A.; Zaragoza, J.; Martínez, A. P.; Márquez, C.; Cárdenas, B.; Lamb, B.; Velasco, E.; Allwine, E.; Pressley, S.; Westberg, H.; Reyes, R.

2004-12-01

A comprehensive field campaign to characterize photochemical smog in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) was conducted during April 2003. An important number of equipment was deployed all around the urban core and its surroundings to measure gas and particles composition from the various sources and receptor sites. In addition to air quality measurements, meteorology variables were also taken by regular weather meteorological stations, tethered balloons, radiosondes, sodars and lidars. One important issue with regard to the field campaign was the characterization of the boundary conditions in order to feed meteorological and air quality models. Four boundary sites were selected to measure continuously criteria pollutants, VOC and meteorological variables at surface level. Vertical meteorological profiles were measured at three other sites : radiosondes in Tacubaya site were launched every six hours daily; tethered balloons were launched at CENICA and FES-Cuautitlan sites according to the weather conditions, and one sodar was deployed at UNAM site in the south of the city. Additionally to these measurements, two fixed meteorological monitoring networks deployed along the city were available to complement these measurements. In general, we observed that transport of pollutants from the city to the boundary sites changes every day, according to the coupling between synoptic and local winds. This effect were less important at elevated sites such as Cerro de la Catedral and ININ, where synoptic wind were more dominant during the field campaign. Also, local sources nearby boundary sites hide the influence of pollution coming from the city some days, particularly at the La Reforma site.

The flood event that affected Badajoz in November 1997

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorente, P.; Hernández, E.; Queralt, S.; Ribera, P.

2008-04-01

The flooding episode of November 1997 in Badajoz was one of the most dramatic catastrophes in Spain: as a result, there were 21 fatalities and huge financial damages. The main purpose of this work is to assess the prevailing synoptic conditions as well as detailing the mesoscale effects by means of moisture sources and dynamic and thermodynamic instability analysis involved in the November 1997 Spanish severe weather episode. In order to achieve the above, this flood event is described in terms of moisture content evolution by means of individual particle simulation along 3-day back-trajectories. A Lagrangian model is applied in order to characterize the atmospheric particles involved in the focused case (localization, height and specific humidity) which give rise to sudden precipitation stream. Geopotential height and temperature fields were used to describe the synoptic situation. Thermodynamic indices, such as CAPE, SWEAT and KI, and dynamic parameters like potential vorticity anomaly at 330 K isentropic surface and Q vector divergence were also calculated in order to complete the analysis and to give a thorough weather frame taking into account the atmospheric instability. The results of this work suggest this flood event was due mainly to strong dynamic instability along with large amounts of moisture advected by a trough, while the thermodynamic instability played a secondary role. Finally, a new methodology based on a technique proposed by Tremblay (2005) has been developed in order to separate the precipitation into stratiform and convective components. It is evident that the event was associated with a predominant convective regime.

Impacts of synoptic condition and planetary boundary layer structure on the trans-boundary aerosol transport from Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Yucong; Guo, Jianping; Liu, Shuhua; Zhao, Chun; Li, Xiaolan; Zhang, Gen; Wei, Wei; Ma, Yanjun

2018-05-01

The northeastern China frequently experiences severe aerosol pollution in winter under unfavorable meteorological conditions. How and to what extent the meteorological factors affect the air quality there are not yet clearly understood. Thus, this study investigated the impacts of synoptic patterns on the aerosol transport and planetary boundary layer (PBL) structure in Shenyang from 1 to 3 December 2016, using surface observations, sounding measurements, satellite data, and three-dimensional simulations. Results showed that the aerosol pollution occurred in Shenyang was not only related to the local emissions, but also contributed by trans-boundary transport of aerosols from the Beiijng-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region. In the presence of the westerly and southwesterly synoptic winds, the aerosols emitted from BTH could be brought to Shenyang. From December 2 to 3, the aerosols emitted from BTH accounted for ∼20% of near-surface PM2.5 in Shenyang. In addition, the large-scale synoptic forcings could affect the vertical mixing of pollutants through modulating the PBL structure in Shenyang. The westerly and southwesterly synoptic winds not only brought the aerosols but also the warmer air masses from the southwest regions to Shenyang. The strong warm advections above PBL could enhance the already existing thermal inversion layers capping over PBL in Shenyang, leading to the suppressions of PBL. Both the trans-boundary transport of aerosols and the suppressions of PBL caused by the large-scale synoptic forcings should be partly responsible for the poor air quality in Shenyang, in addition to the high pollutant emissions. The present study revealed the physical mechanisms underlying the aerosol pollution in Shenyang, which has important implications for better forecasting and controlling the aerosols pollution.

Identification of atmospheric boundary layer thickness using doppler radar datas and WRF - ARW model in Merauke

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putri, R. J. A.; Setyawan, T.

2017-01-01

In the synoptic scale, one of the important meteorological parameter is the atmospheric boundary layer. Aside from being a supporter of the parameters in weather and climate models, knowing the thickness of the layer of the atmosphere can help identify aerosols and the strength of the vertical mixing of pollutants in it. The vertical wind profile data from C-band Doppler radar Mopah-Merauke which is operated by BMKG through Mopah-Merauke Meteorological Station can be used to identify the peak of Atmospheric Boundaryu Layer (ABL). ABL peak marked by increasing wind shear over the layer blending. Samples in January 2015 as a representative in the wet and in July 2015 as the representation of a dry month, shows that ABL heights using WRF models show that in July (sunny weather) ABL height values higher than in January (cloudy)

Research on regional numerical weather prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kreitzberg, C. W.

1976-01-01

Extension of the predictive power of dynamic weather forecasting to scales below the conventional synoptic or cyclonic scales in the near future is assessed. Lower costs per computation, more powerful computers, and a 100 km mesh over the North American area (with coarser mesh extending beyond it) are noted at present. Doubling the resolution even locally (to 50 km mesh) would entail a 16-fold increase in costs (including vertical resolution and halving the time interval), and constraints on domain size and length of forecast. Boundary conditions would be provided by the surrounding 100 km mesh, and time-varying lateral boundary conditions can be considered to handle moving phenomena. More physical processes to treat, more efficient numerical techniques, and faster computers (improved software and hardware) backing up satellite and radar data could produce further improvements in forecasting in the 1980s. Boundary layer modeling, initialization techniques, and quantitative precipitation forecasting are singled out among key tasks.

The Characteristics of Cold Air Outbreaks in the Eastern United States and the Influence of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, E. T.

2017-12-01

Periods of extreme cold impact the mid-latitudes every winter. Depending on the magnitude and duration of the occurrence, extremely cold periods may be deemed cold air outbreaks (CAOs). Atmospheric teleconnections impact the displacement of polar air, but the relationship between the primary teleconnections and the manifestation of CAOs is not fully understood. A systematic CAO index was developed from 20 surface weather stations based on a set of criteria concerning magnitude, duration, and spatial extent. Statistical analyses of the data were used to determine the overall trends in CAOs. Clusters of sea level pressure (SLP), 100mb, and 10mb geopotential height anomalies were mapped utilizing self-organizing maps (SOMs) to understand the surface, upper-tropospheric Polar Vortex (PV), and stratospheric PV patterns preceding CAOs. The Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnections were used as variables to explain the magnitude and location of mid-latitude Arctic air displacement. Persistently negative SLP anomalies across the Arctic and North Atlantic were evident 1 - 2 weeks prior to the CAOs throughout the winter. The upper-tropospheric and stratospheric PV were found to be persistently weak/weakening prior to mid-winter CAOs and predominantly strong and off-centered prior to early and late season CAOs. Negative phases of the AO and NAO were favored prior to CAOs, while the PNA favored a near-neutral phase. This method of CAO and synoptic pattern characterization benefits from a continuous pattern representation and provides insight as to how specific teleconnections impact the atmospheric flow in a way that leads to CAOs in the eastern U.S.

Enhancing Extreme Heat Health-Related Intervention and Preparedness Activities Using Remote Sensing Analysis of Daily Surface Temperature, Surface Observation Networks and Ecmwf Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, R. L.; Booth, J.; Hondula, D.; Ross, K. W.; Stuyvesant, A.; Alm, G.; Baghel, E.

2015-12-01

Extreme heat causes more human fatalities in the United States than any other natural disaster, elevating the concern of heat-related mortality. Maricopa County Arizona is known for its high heat index and its sprawling metropolitan complex which makes this region a perfect candidate for human health research. Individuals at higher risk are unequally spatially distributed, leaving the poor, homeless, non-native English speakers, elderly, and the socially isolated vulnerable to heat events. The Arizona Department of Health Services, Arizona State University and NASA DEVELOP LaRC are working to establish a more effective method of placing hydration and cooling centers in addition to enhancing the heat warning system to aid those with the highest exposure. Using NASA's Earth Observation Systems from Aqua and Terra satellites, the daily spatial variability within the UHI was quantified over the summer heat seasons from 2005 - 2014, effectively establishing a remotely sensed surface temperature climatology for the county. A series of One-way Analysis of Variance revealed significant differences between daily surface temperature averages of the top 30% of census tracts within the study period. Furthermore, synoptic upper tropospheric circulation patterns were classified to relate surface weather types and heat index. The surface weather observation networks were also reviewed for analyzing the veracity of the other methods. The results provide detailed information regarding nuances within the UHI effect and will allow pertinent recommendations regarding the health department's adaptive capacity. They also hold essential components for future policy decision-making regarding appropriate locations for cooling centers and efficient warning systems.

Impacts of Synoptic Weather Patterns on Snow Albedo at Sites in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adolph, A. C.; Albert, M. R.; Lazarcik, J.; Dibb, J. E.; Amante, J.; Price, A. N.

2015-12-01

Winter snow in the northeastern United States has changed over the last several decades, resulting in shallower snow packs, fewer days of snow cover and increasing precipitation falling as rain in the winter. In addition to these changes which cause reductions in surface albedo, increasing winter temperatures also lead to more rapid snow grain growth, resulting in decreased snow reflectivity. We present in-situ measurements and analyses to test the sensitivity of seasonal snow albedo to varying weather conditions at sites in New England. In particular, we investigate the impact of temperature on snow albedo through melt and grain growth, the impact of precipitation event frequency on albedo through snow "freshening," and the impact of storm path on snow structure and snow albedo. Over three winter seasons between 2013 and 2015, in-situ snow characterization measurements were made at three non-forested sites across New Hampshire. These near-daily measurements include spectrally resolved albedo, snow optical grain size determined through contact spectroscopy, snow depth, snow density and local meteorological parameters. Combining this information with storm tracks derived from HYSPLIT modeling, we quantify the current sensitivity of northeastern US snow albedo to temperature as well as precipitation type, frequency and path. Our analysis shows that southerly winter storms result in snow with a significantly lower albedo than storms which come from across the continental US or the Atlantic Ocean. Interannual variability in temperature and statewide spatial variability in snowfall rates at our sites show the relative importance of snowfall amount and temperatures in albedo evolution over the course of the winter.

Synoptic analysis and hindcast of an intense bow echo in Western Europe: The 09 June 2014 storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathias, Luca; Ermert, Volker; Kelemen, Fanni D.; Ludwig, Patrick; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2017-04-01

On Pentecost Monday of 09 June 2014, a severe mesoscale convective system (MCS) hit Belgium and Western Germany. This storm was one of the most severe thunderstorms in Germany for decades. The synoptic-scale and mesoscale characteristics of this storm are analyzed based on remote sensing data and in-situ measurements. Moreover, the forecast potential of the storm is evaluated using sensitivity experiments with a regional climate model. The key ingredients for the development of the Pentecost storm were the concurrent presence of low-level moisture, atmospheric conditional instability and wind shear. The synoptic and mesoscale analysis shows that the outflow of a decaying MCS above northern France triggered the storm, which exhibited the typical features of a bow echo like a mesovortex and rear inflow jet. This resulted in hurricane-force wind gusts (reaching 40 m/s) along a narrow swath in the Rhine-Ruhr region leading to substantial damage. Operational numerical weather predictions models mostly failed to forecast the storm, but high-resolution regional model hindcasts enable a realistic simulation of the storm. The model experiments reveal that the development of the bow echo is particularly sensitive to the initial wind field and the lower tropospheric moisture content. Correct initial and boundary conditions are therefore necessary for realistic numerical forecasts of such a bow echo event. We conclude that the Pentecost storm exhibited a comparable structure and a similar intensity to the observed bow echo systems in the United States.

Impact of Synoptic-Scale Factors on Rainfall Forecast in Different Stages of a Persistent Heavy Rainfall Event in South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Murong; Meng, Zhiyong

2018-04-01

This study investigates the stage-dependent rainfall forecast skills and the associated synoptic-scale features in a persistent heavy rainfall event in south China, Guangdong Province, during 29-31 March 2014, using operational global ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. This persistent rainfall was divided into two stages with a better precipitation forecast skill in Stage 2 (S2) than Stage 1 (S1) although S2 had a longer lead time. Using ensemble-based sensitivity analysis, key synoptic-scale factors that affected the rainfall were diagnosed by correlating the accumulated precipitation of each stage to atmospheric state variables in the middle of respective stage. The precipitation in both stages was found to be significantly correlated with midlevel trough, low-level vortex, and particularly the low-level jet on the southeast flank of the vortex and its associated moisture transport. The rainfall forecast skill was mainly determined by the forecast accuracy in the location of the low-level jet, which was possibly related to the different juxtapositions between the direction of the movement of the low-level vortex and the orientation of the low-level jet. The uncertainty in rainfall forecast in S1 was mainly from the location uncertainty of the low-level jet, while the uncertainty in rainfall forecast in S2 was mainly from the width uncertainty of the low-level jet with the relatively accurate location of the low-level jet.

A Transition in Atmospheric Moisture Transport as Observed in Stable Isotope Data From Mount Wrangell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, K.; Field, R.; Benson, C.

2007-12-01

Measurements made at the summit of Mount Wrangell in the Saint Elias Mountains during a storm in early August 1980 show a change in δ18O that approaches that normally observed to occur between winter and summer in the same region. We explore the synoptic-scale conditions associated with this storm with a view to understanding the processes responsible for this large change in δ18O. Using a variety of diagnostic techniques including satellite imagery, reanalysis data and back-trajectories, we show that during this event there was a dramatic transition in the atmospheric moisture transport to Mount Wrangell from a sub-tropical source region over the central Pacific to an extra-tropical source region over Siberia. This transition was mediated by the interaction of two synoptic-scale weather systems, the semi-permanent high situated over the northeastern Pacific Ocean and a transient extra-tropical cyclone that entered the Alaska region from the west. The implications that such events have on the reconstruction of climate signals contained in ice cores from the Saint Elias region will be discussed.

April 2008 Saharan dust event: Its contribution to PM10 concentrations over the Anatolian Peninsula and relation with synoptic conditions.

PubMed

Kabatas, B; Pierce, R B; Unal, A; Rogal, M J; Lenzen, A

2018-08-15

An online-coupled regional Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) is utilized incorporating 0.1°×0.1° spatial resolution HTAP (Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution) anthropogenic emissions to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of a Saharan dust outbreak, which contributed to high levels (>50μg/m 3 ) of daily PM 10 concentrations over Turkey in April 2008. Aerosol optical depth and cloud optical thickness retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor on board of Aqua satellite are used to better analyze the synoptic conditions that generated the dust outbreak in April 2008. A "Sharav" low pressure system, which transports the dust from Saharan source region over Turkey along the cold front, tends to move faster in WRF-Chem simulations than observed. This causes the predicted dust event to arrive earlier than observed leading to an overestimation of surface PM 10 concentrations in WRF-Chem simulation at the beginning of the event. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the functional form of particle number size distributions: influence of particle source and meteorological variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cugerone, Katia; De Michele, Carlo; Ghezzi, Antonio; Gianelle, Vorne; Gilardoni, Stefania

2018-04-01

Particle number size distributions (PNSDs) have been collected periodically in the urban area of Milan, Italy, during 2011 and 2012 in winter and summer months. Moreover, comparable PNSD measurements were carried out in the rural mountain site of Oga-San Colombano (2250 m a.s.l.), Italy, during February 2005 and August 2011. The aerosol data have been measured through the use of optical particle counters in the size range 0.3-25 µm, with a time resolution of 1 min. The comparison of the PNSDs collected in the two sites has been done in terms of total number concentration, showing higher numbers in Milan (often exceeding 103 cm-3 in winter season) compared to Oga-San Colombano (not greater than 2×102 cm-3), as expected. The skewness-kurtosis plane has been used in order to provide a synoptic view, and select the best distribution family describing the empirical PNSD pattern. The four-parameter Johnson system-bounded distribution (called Johnson SB or JSB) has been tested for this aim, due to its great flexibility and ability to assume different shapes. The PNSD pattern has been found to be generally invariant under site and season changes. Nevertheless, several PNSDs belonging to the Milan winter season (generally more than 30 %) clearly deviate from the standard empirical pattern. The seasonal increase in the concentration of primary aerosols due to combustion processes in winter and the influence of weather variables throughout the year, such as precipitation and wind speed, could be considered plausible explanations of PNSD dynamics.

WRF simulation over complex terrain during a southern California wildfire event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, W.; Zhong, S.; Charney, J. J.; Bian, X.; Liu, S.

2012-03-01

In October 2007, the largest wildfire-related evacuation in California's history occurred as severe wildfires broke out across southern California. Smoke from these wildfires contributed to elevated pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere, affecting air quality in a vast region of the western United States. High-resolution numerical simulations were performed using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to understand the atmospheric conditions during the wildfire episode and how the complex circulation patterns might affect smoke transport and dispersion. The simulated meteorological fields were validated using surface and upper air observations in California and Nevada. To distinguish the performance of the WRF in different geographic regions, the surface stations were grouped into coastal sites, valley and basin sites, and mountain sites, and the results for the three categories were analyzed and intercompared. For temperature and moisture, the mountain category has the best agreement with the observations, while the coastal category was the worst. For wind, the model performance for the three categories was very similar. The flow patterns over complex terrain were also analyzed under different synoptic conditions and the possible impact of the terrain on smoke and pollutant pathways is analyzed by employing a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model. When high mountains prevent the smoke from moving inland, the mountain passes act as active pathways for smoke transport; meanwhile, chimney effect helps inject the pollutants to higher levels, where they are transported regionally. The results highlight the role of complex topography in the assessment of the possible smoke transport patterns in the region.

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crane, Robert G.; Hewitson, Bruce

1990-01-01

Model simulations of global climate change are seen as an essential component of any program aimed at understanding human impact on the global environment. A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs), however, is their inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global scale change, and it is these regional scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human/environmental response. This research is directed toward the development of a methodology for the validation of the synoptic scale climatology of GCMs. This is developed with regard to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM Model 2, with the specific objective of using the synoptic circulation form a doubles CO2 simulation to estimate regional climate change over North America, south of Hudson Bay. This progress report is specifically concerned with validating the synoptic climatology of the GISS GCM, and developing the transfer function to derive grid-point temperatures from the synoptic circulation. Principal Components Analysis is used to characterize the primary modes of the spatial and temporal variability in the observed and simulated climate, and the model validation is based on correlations between component loadings, and power spectral analysis of the component scores. The results show that the high resolution GISS model does an excellent job of simulating the synoptic circulation over the U.S., and that grid-point temperatures can be predicted with reasonable accuracy from the circulation patterns.

Multiresolution comparison of precipitation datasets for large-scale models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chun, K. P.; Sapriza Azuri, G.; Davison, B.; DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.

2014-12-01

Gridded precipitation datasets are crucial for driving large-scale models which are related to weather forecast and climate research. However, the quality of precipitation products is usually validated individually. Comparisons between gridded precipitation products along with ground observations provide another avenue for investigating how the precipitation uncertainty would affect the performance of large-scale models. In this study, using data from a set of precipitation gauges over British Columbia and Alberta, we evaluate several widely used North America gridded products including the Canadian Gridded Precipitation Anomalies (CANGRD), the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, the Water and Global Change (WATCH) project, the thin plate spline smoothing algorithms (ANUSPLIN) and Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA). Based on verification criteria for various temporal and spatial scales, results provide an assessment of possible applications for various precipitation datasets. For long-term climate variation studies (~100 years), CANGRD, NCEP, WATCH and ANUSPLIN have different comparative advantages in terms of their resolution and accuracy. For synoptic and mesoscale precipitation patterns, CaPA provides appealing performance of spatial coherence. In addition to the products comparison, various downscaling methods are also surveyed to explore new verification and bias-reduction methods for improving gridded precipitation outputs for large-scale models.

Arctic Sea Ice, Eurasia Snow, and Extreme Winter Haze in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Y.; Wang, Y.; Xie, Z.; Zhang, Y.; Koo, J. H.

2017-12-01

Eastern China is experiencing more severe haze pollution in winter during recent years. Though the environmental deterioration in this region is usually attributed to the high intensity of anthropogenic emissions and large contributions from secondary aerosol formation, the impact of climate variability is also indispensable given its significant influence on regional weather systems and pollution ventilation. Here we analyzed the air quality related winter meteorological conditions over Eastern China in the last four decades and showed a worsening trend in poor regional air pollutant ventilation. Such variations increased the probability of extreme air pollution events, which is in good agreement with aerosol observations of recent years. We further identified the key circulation pattern that is conducive to the weakening ventilation and investigated the relationship between synoptic circulation changes and multiple climate forcing variables. Both statistical analysis and numerical sensitivity experiments suggested that the poor ventilation condition is linked to boreal cryosphere changes including Arctic sea ice in preceding autumn and Eurasia snowfall in earlier winter. We conducted comprehensive dynamic diagnosis and proposed a physical mechanism to explain the observed and simulated circulation changes. At last, we examined future projections of winter extreme stagnation events based on the CMIP5 projection data.

Zone trends for three metropolitan statistical areas in North Carolina

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oommen, R.G.; Aneja, V.P.; Riordan, A.J.

1996-12-31

As part of an effort by the state of North Carolina to develop a State Implementation Plan (SIP) for ozone control, a network of ozone stations was established to monitor ozone concentrations across the state. Approximately twenty-five ozone stations made continuous measurements surrounding the three major Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) between 1993-1995: Raleigh/Durham (RDU), Charlotte/Mecklenburg (CLT), and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point (GSO). Statistical Averages on the ozone data were performed at each MSA to study trends and/or relationships on high ozone days. It was found that the three MSAs were not significantly different to each other, indicating they fall under the samemore » synoptic weather patterns, Transport and local production of biogenic sources of VOCs and NO{sub x} appear to play an important role for high ozone downwind at RDU, while mobile sources of these precursor gases contribute to the high ozone downwind of CLT and GSO. A {delta}(O{sub 3}) analysis (difference between the O{sub 3} measured at an upwind and downwind site) suggested that long-range transport of the precursors was a significant contribution for ozone problems at the three MSAs. 15 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs.« less

Macroinvertebrate communities evaluated prior to and following a channel restoration project in Silver Creek, Blaine County, Idaho, 2001-16

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacCoy, Dorene E.; Short, Terry M.

2017-11-22

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Blaine County and The Nature Conservancy, evaluated the status of macroinvertebrate communities prior to and following a channel restoration project in Silver Creek, Blaine County, Idaho. The objective of the evaluation was to determine whether 2014 remediation efforts to restore natural channel conditions in an impounded area of Silver Creek caused declines in local macroinvertebrate communities. Starting in 2001 and ending in 2016, macroinvertebrates were sampled every 3 years at two long-term trend sites and sampled seasonally (spring, summer, and autumn) in 2013, 2015, and 2016 at seven synoptic sites. Trend-site communities were collected from natural stream-bottom substrates to represent locally established macroinvertebrate assemblages. Synoptic site communities were sampled using artificial (multi-plate) substrates to represent recently colonized (4–6 weeks) assemblages. Statistical summaries of spatial and temporal patterns in macroinvertebrate taxonomic composition at both trend and synoptic sites were completed.The potential effect of the restoration project on resident macroinvertebrate populations was determined by comparing the following community assemblage metrics:Total taxonomic richness (taxa richness);Total macroinvertebrate abundance (total abundance);Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera (EPT) richness;EPT abundance;Simpson’s diversity; andSimpson’s evenness for periods prior to and following restoration.A significant decrease in one or more metric values in the period following stream channel restoration was the basis for determining impairment to the macroinvertebrate communities in Silver Creek.Comparison of pre-restoration (2001–13) and post‑restoration (2016) macroinvertebrate community composition at trend sites determined that no significant decreases occurred in any metric parameter for communities sampled in 2016. Taxa and EPT richness of colonized assemblages at synoptic sites increased significantly from pre-restoration in 2013 to post-restoration in 2015 and 2016. Similarly, total and EPT abundances at synoptic sites showed non-significant increases from 2013 to 2015 and 2016. Significant seasonal differences in macroinvertebrate assemblages were apparent at synoptic site locations and likely reflected typical life-history patterns of increased insect emergence and development in the late spring and early summer months. Taxa and EPT richness were each significantly higher in spring and summer than in autumn, and total abundances were significantly higher in spring than in summer and autumn. No significant differences in community diversity or evenness of colonized communities were noted at synoptic site locations between pre- and post-restoration years or among seasons. Select community-metric results from the trend- and synoptic‑site sampling indicated that the Silver Creek restoration effort in 2014 did not result in a significant decline in resident macroinvertebrate communities.

Low Cloud Type over the Ocean from Surface Observations. Part III: Relationship to Vertical Motion and the Regional Surface Synoptic Environment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norris, Joel R.; Klein, Stephen A.

2000-01-01

Composite large-scale dynamical fields contemporaneous with low cloud types observed at midlatitude Ocean Weather Station (OWS) C and eastern subtropical OWS N are used to establish representative relationships between low cloud type and the synoptic environment. The composites are constructed by averaging meteorological observations of surface wind and sea level pressure from volunteering observing ships (VOS) and analyses of sea level pressure, 1000-mb wind, and 700-mb pressure vertical velocity from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis project on those dates and times of day when a particular low cloud type was reported at the OWS.VOS and NCEP results for OWS C during summer show that bad-weather stratus occurs with strong convergence and ascent slightly ahead of a surface low center and trough. Cumulus-under-stratocumulus and moderate and large cumulus occur with divergence and subsidence in the cold sector of an extratropical cyclone. Both sky-obscuring fog and no-low-cloud typically occur with southwesterly flow from regions of warmer sea surface temperature and differ primarily according to slight surface convergence and stronger warm advection in the case of sky-obscuring fog or surface divergence and weaker warm advection in the case of no-low-cloud. Fair-weather stratus and ordinary stratocumulus are associated with a mixture of meteorological conditions, but differ with respect to vertical motion in the environment. Fair-weather stratus occurs most commonly in the presence of slight convergence and ascent, while stratocumulus often occurs in the presence of divergence and subsidence.Surface divergence and estimated subsidence at the top of the boundary layer are calculated from VOS observations. At both OWS C and OWS N during summer and winter these values are large for ordinary stratocumulus, less for cumulus-under-stratocumulus, and least (and sometimes slightly negative) for moderate and large cumulus. Subsidence interpolated from NCEP analyses to the top of the boundary layer does not exhibit such variation, but the discrepancy may be due to deficiencies in the analysis procedure or the boundary layer parameterization of the NCEP model. The VOS results suggest that decreasing divergence and subsidence in addition to increasing sea surface temperature may promote the transition from stratocumulus to trade cumulus observed over low-latitude oceans.

Polynya dynamics and associated atmospheric forcing at the Ronne Ice Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebner, Lars; Heinemann, Günther

2014-05-01

The Ronne Ice Shelf is known as one of the most active regions of polynya developments around the Antarctic continent. Low temperatures are prevailing throughout the whole year, particularly in winter. It is generally recognized that polynya formations are primarily forced by offshore winds and secondarily by ocean currents. Many authors have addressed this issue previously at the Ross Ice Shelf and Adélie Coast and connected polynya dynamics to strong katabatic surge events. Such investigations of atmospheric dynamics and simultaneous polynya occurrence are still severely underrepresented for the southwestern part of the Weddell Sea and especially for the Ronne Ice Shelf. Due to the very flat terrain gradients of the ice shelf katabatic winds are of minor importance in that area. Other atmospheric processes must therefore play a crucial role for polynya developments at the Ronne Ice Shelf. High-resolution simulations have been carried out for the Weddell Sea region using the non-hydrostatic NWP model COSMO from the German Meteorological Service (DWD). For the austral autumn and winter (March to August) 2008 daily forecast simulations were conducted with the consideration of daily sea-ice coverage deduced from the passive microwave system AMSR-E. These simulations are used to analyze the synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric dynamics of the Weddell Sea region and find linkages to polynya occurrence at the Ronne Ice Shelf. For that reason, the relation between the surface wind speed, the synoptic pressure gradient in the free atmosphere and polynya area is investigated. Seven significant polynya events are identified for the simulation period, three in the autumn and four in the winter season. It can be shown that in almost all cases synoptic cyclones are the primary polynya forcing systems. In most cases the timely interaction of several passing cyclones in the northern and central Weddell Sea leads to maintenance of a strong synoptic pressure gradient above the Ronne Ice Shelf. This strong synoptic forcing results in a moderate to strong offshore surface wind. It turned out that these synoptic depressions lead to strong barrier winds above the northwestern Ronne Ice Shelf and along the eastern flank of the Antarctic Peninsula. The fact, that these barrier winds often appear prior or during the initial break up of sea ice at the shelf ice edge, suggest that this mesoscale wind phenomenon plays a crucial role for polynya development. Furthermore, even mesoscale cyclogenesis above the Ronne Ice Shelf and the following northeastward passage of such a system can break up sea-ice cover under large-scale stationary weather conditions.

NASA's AVE 7 experiment: 25-mb sounding data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, J. G.; Fuelberg, H. E.; Turner, R. E.

1978-01-01

The AVE 7 Experiment is described and tabulated rawinsonde data at 25 mb internals from the surface to 25 mb for the 24 stations participating in the experiment are presented. Soundings were taken between 0000GMT May 2 and 1200 GMT May 3, 1978. The methods of data processing and the accuracy are briefly discussed. Selected synoptic charts prepared from the data are presented as well as an example of contact data. A tabulation of adverse weather events that occured during the AVE 7 period, including freezing temperature, snow, tornadoes, damaging winds, and flooding, is presented.

The winds of the comparison data set for the Seasat Gulf of Alaska Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierson, W. J.; Peteherych, S.; Wilkerson, J. C.

1980-01-01

Ship and data buoy winds used for comparison in the validation of Seasat-derived winds are described in terms of the time series of hourly wind observations from the buoys and in terms of the techniques used to produce 20- and 30-min average winds from the ships. Attention is given to the comparison data, the synoptic scale wind, turbulence concepts, the data buoy winds, Ocean Weather Station PAPA, the oceanographer data, and the results from Ocean Station PAPA Ship Quadra and from the oceanographer. Sources of scatter in the comparison data are reviewed.

Diagnostic studies of the Antarctic vortex during the 1987 Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment - Ozone miniholes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mckenna, D. S.; Jones, R. L.; Austin, J.; Browell, E. V.; Mccormick, M. P.; Krueger, A. J.

1989-01-01

Localized rapid reductions in total ozone (miniholes), which were observed during the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment, are studied with particular attention given to meteorological aspects. It is suggested that miniholes are forced by tropospheric weather features and that they are largely reversible distortions to the airflow around the vortex. The relationship between the miniholes and upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric synoptic-scale disturbances is studied. Trajectory calculations are presented which demonstrate the exchange of air from low latitudes with air from within the vortex, with the vortex air subsequently moving to lower latitudes.

A meteorological and chemical overview of the DACCIWA field campaign in West Africa in June-July 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knippertz, Peter; Fink, Andreas H.; Deroubaix, Adrien; Morris, Eleanor; Tocquer, Flore; Evans, Mat J.; Flamant, Cyrille; Gaetani, Marco; Lavaysse, Christophe; Mari, Celine; Marsham, John H.; Meynadier, Rémi; Affo-Dogo, Abalo; Bahaga, Titike; Brosse, Fabien; Deetz, Konrad; Guebsi, Ridha; Latifou, Issaou; Maranan, Marlon; Rosenberg, Philip D.; Schlueter, Andreas

2017-09-01

In June and July 2016 the Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa (DACCIWA) project organised a major international field campaign in southern West Africa (SWA) including measurements from three inland ground supersites, urban sites in Cotonou and Abidjan, radiosondes, and three research aircraft. A significant range of different weather situations were encountered during this period, including the monsoon onset. The purpose of this paper is to characterise the large-scale setting for the campaign as well as synoptic and mesoscale weather systems affecting the study region in the light of existing conceptual ideas, mainly using objective and subjective identification algorithms based on (re-)analysis and satellite products. In addition, it is shown how the described synoptic variations influence the atmospheric composition over SWA through advection of mineral dust, biomass burning and urban pollution plumes.The boreal summer of 2016 was characterised by Pacific La Niña, Atlantic El Niño and warm eastern Mediterranean conditions, whose competing influences on precipitation led to an overall average rainy season. During the relatively dusty pre-onset Phase 1 (1-21 June 2016), three westward-propagating coherent cyclonic vortices between 4 and 13° N modulated winds and rainfall in the Guinea coastal area. The monsoon onset occurred in connection with a marked extratropical trough and cold surge over northern Africa, leading to a breakdown of the Saharan heat low and African easterly jet and a suppression of rainfall. During this period, quasi-stationary low-level vortices associated with the trough transformed into more tropical, propagating disturbances resembling an African easterly wave (AEW). To the east of this system, moist southerlies penetrated deep into the continent. The post-onset Phase 2 (22 June-20 July 2016) was characterised by a significant increase in low-level cloudiness, unusually dry conditions and strong northeastward dispersion of urban pollution plumes in SWA as well as rainfall modulation by westward-propagating AEWs in the Sahel. Around 12-14 July 2016 an interesting and so-far undocumented cyclonic-anticyclonic vortex couplet crossed SWA. The anticyclonic centre had its origin in the Southern Hemisphere and transported unusually dry air filled with aged aerosol into the region. During Phase 3 (21-26 July 2016), a similar vortex couplet slightly farther north created enhanced westerly moisture transports into SWA and extraordinarily wet conditions, accompanied by a deep penetration of the biomass burning plume from central Africa. Finally, a return to more undisturbed monsoon conditions took place during Phase 4 (27-31 July 2016). The in-depth synoptic analysis reveals that several significant weather systems during the DACCIWA campaign cannot be attributed unequivocally to any of the tropical waves and disturbances described in the literature and thus deserve further study.

Transient behavior of vertical scaling of mesoscale winds in the light of atmospheric turbulence transfer in and between synoptic and mesoscales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barros, A. P.; Eghdami, M.

2017-12-01

High-resolution ( 1 km) numerical weather prediction models are capable of producing atmospheric spectra over synoptic and mesoscale ranges. Nogueira and Barros (2015) showed using high-resolution simulations in the Andes that the horizontal scale invariant behavior of atmospheric wind and water fields in the model is a process-dependent transient property that varies with the underlying dynamics. They found a sharp transition in the scaling parameters between non-convective and convective conditions. Spectral slopes around 2-2.3 arise under non-convective or very weak convective conditions, whereas in convective situations the transient scaling exponents remain under -5/3. Based on these results, Nogueira and Barros (2015) proposed a new sub-grid scale parameterization of clouds obtained from coarse resolution states alone. High Reynolds number direct numerical simulations of two-dimensional turbulence transfer shows that atmospheric flows involve concurrent direct (downscale) enstrophy transfer in the synoptic scales and inverse (upscale) kinetic energy transfer from the meso- to the synoptic-scales. In this study we use an analogy to investigate the transient behavior of kinetic energy spectra of winds over the Andes and Southern Appalachian Mountains representative of high and middle mountains, respectively. In the unstable conditions and particularly in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) the spectral slopes approach -5/3 associated with the upscale KE turbulence transfer. However, in the stable conditions and above the planetary boundary layer, the spectra slopes approach steeper slopes about -3 associated with the downscale KE transfer. The underlying topography, surface roughness, diurnal heating and cooling and moist processes add to the complexity of the problem by introducing anisotropy and sources and sinks of energy. A comprehensive analysis and scaling of flow behavior conditional on stability regime for both KE and moist processes (total water, cloud water, rainfall) is necessary to elucidate scale-interactions among different processes.

Improving Prediction of Large-scale Regime Transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyakum, J. R.; Roebber, P.; Bosart, L. F.; Honor, A.; Bunker, E.; Low, Y.; Hart, J.; Bliankinshtein, N.; Kolly, A.; Atallah, E.; Huang, Y.

2017-12-01

Cool season atmospheric predictability over the CONUS on subseasonal times scales (1-4 weeks) is critically dependent upon the structure, configuration, and evolution of the North Pacific jet stream (NPJ). The NPJ can be perturbed on its tropical side on synoptic time scales by recurving and transitioning tropical cyclones (TCs) and on subseasonal time scales by longitudinally varying convection associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Likewise, the NPJ can be perturbed on its poleward side on synoptic time scales by midlatitude and polar disturbances that originate over the Asian continent. These midlatitude and polar disturbances can often trigger downstream Rossby wave propagation across the North Pacific, North America, and the North Atlantic. The project team is investigating the following multiscale processes and features: the spatiotemporal distribution of cyclone clustering over the Northern Hemisphere; cyclone clustering as influenced by atmospheric blocking and the phases and amplitudes of the major teleconnection indices, ENSO and the MJO; composite and case study analyses of representative cyclone clustering events to establish the governing dynamics; regime change predictability horizons associated with cyclone clustering events; Arctic air mass generation and modification; life cycles of the MJO; and poleward heat and moisture transports of subtropical air masses. A critical component of the study is weather regime classification. These classifications are defined through: the spatiotemporal clustering of surface cyclogenesis; a general circulation metric combining data at 500-hPa and the dynamic tropopause; Self Organizing Maps (SOM), constructed from dynamic tropopause and 850 hPa equivalent potential temperature data. The resultant lattice of nodes is used to categorize synoptic classes and their predictability, as well as to determine the robustness of the CFSv2 model climate relative to observations. Transition pathways between these synoptic classes, both in the observations and the CFSv2, are investigated. At a future point in the project, the results from these multiscale investigations will be integrated in the form of a prediction tool for important variables (temperatures, precipitation and their extremes) for the 1-4 week timeframe.

An objective daily Weather Type classification for Iberia since 1850; patterns, trends, variability and impact in precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, A. M.; Trigo, R. M.; Lorenzo, M. N.; Vaquero, J. M.; Gallego, M. C.; Valente, M. A.; Gimeno, L.

2009-04-01

In recent years a large number of automated classifications of atmospheric circulation patterns have been published covering the entire European continent or specific sub-regions (Huth et al., 2008). This generalized use of objective classifications results from their relatively straightforward computation but crucially from their capacity to provide simple description of typical synoptic conditions as well as their climatic and environmental impact. For this purpose, the vast majority of authors has employed the Reanalyses datasets, namely from either NCEP/NCAR or ECMWF projects. However, both these widely used datasets suffer from important caveats, namely their restricted temporal coverage, that is limited to the last six decades (NCEP/NCAR since 1948 and ECMWF since 1958). This limitation has been partially mitigated by the recent availability of continuous daily mean sea level pressure obtained within the European project EMULATE, that extended the historic records over the extra-tropical Atlantic and Europe (70°-25° N by 70° W-50° E), for the period 1850 to the present (Ansell, T. J. et al. 2006). Here we have used the extended EMULATE dataset to construct an automated version of the Lamb Weather type (WTs) classification scheme (Jones et al 1993) adapted for the center of the Iberian Peninsula. We have identified 10 basic WTs (Cyclonic, Anticyclonic and 8 directional types) following a similar methodology to that previously adopted by Trigo and DaCamara, 2000 (for Portugal) and Lorenzo et al. 2008 (for Galicia, northwestern Iberia). We have evaluated trends of monthly/seasonal frequency of each WT for the entire period and several shorter periods. Finally, we use the long-term precipitation time series from Lisbon (recently digitized) and Cadiz (southern Spain) to evaluate, the impact of each WT on the precipitation regime. It is shown that the Anticyclonic (A) type, although being the most frequent class in winter, gives a rather small contribution to the winter precipitation amount, observed on a daily basis. On the other hand, the three wettest WTs, namely the Cyclonic (C), South-westerly (SW) and Westerly (W) types, together representing roughly a third of all winter days, do account for more than 60% of the observed daily precipitation. It is shown that the large inter-annual variability of precipitation in both cities is highly related with the corresponding inter-annual variability of the wet WTs. Ansell, T. J. et al. (2006) Daily mean sea level pressure reconstructions for the European - North Atlantic region for the period 1850-2003, Journal of Climate, 19, 2717-2742, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3775.1 Huth R., Beck C., Philipp A., Demuzere M, Ustrnul Z, Cahynová M., Kyselý J., Tveito O.E. (2008) Classifications of atmospheric circulation patterns: recent advances and applications. Trends and Directions in Climate Research: Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 1146:, 105-152 Jones, P. D. , M. Hulme , K. R. Briffa. (1993) A comparison of Lamb circulation types with an objective classification scheme. Int. J. Climatol. 13: 655- 663. Lorenzo M.N., Taboada J.J. and Gimeno L. (2008) Links between circulation weather types and teleconnection patterns and their influence on precipitation patterns in Galicia (NW Spain). Int. J. Climatol. Published Online: Nov 12 2007 5:30AM DOI: 10.1002/joc.1646. Trigo R.M. and Da Camara C.C. (2000) Circulation weather types and their influence on the precipitation regime in Portugal. Int. J. Climatol., 20, 1559-1581.

Characterizing the influence of atmospheric river orientation and intensity on precipitation distributions over North Coastal California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hecht, Chad W.; Cordeira, Jason M.

2017-09-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long (>2000 km) and narrow (500-1000 km) corridors of enhanced vertically integrated water vapor and enhanced integrated water vapor transport (IVT) that are responsible for a majority of global poleward moisture transport and can result in extreme orographic precipitation. Observational evidence suggests that ARs within different synoptic-scale flow regimes may contain different water vapor source regions, orientations, and intensities and may result in different precipitation distributions. This study uses k-means clustering to objectively identify different orientations and intensities of ARs that make landfall over the California Russian River watershed. The ARs with different orientations and intensities occur within different synoptic-scale flow patterns in association with variability in IVT direction and quasi-geostrophic forcing for ascent and lead to different precipitation distributions over the Russian River watershed. These differences suggest that both mesoscale upslope moisture flux and synoptic-scale forcing for ascent are important factors in modulating precipitation distributions during landfalling ARs.

An investigation on thermal patterns in Iran based on spatial autocorrelation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fallah Ghalhari, Gholamabbas; Dadashi Roudbari, Abbasali

2018-02-01

The present study aimed at investigating temporal-spatial patterns and monthly patterns of temperature in Iran using new spatial statistical methods such as cluster and outlier analysis, and hotspot analysis. To do so, climatic parameters, monthly average temperature of 122 synoptic stations, were assessed. Statistical analysis showed that January with 120.75% had the most fluctuation among the studied months. Global Moran's Index revealed that yearly changes of temperature in Iran followed a strong spatially clustered pattern. Findings showed that the biggest thermal cluster pattern in Iran, 0.975388, occurred in May. Cluster and outlier analyses showed that thermal homogeneity in Iran decreases in cold months, while it increases in warm months. This is due to the radiation angle and synoptic systems which strongly influence thermal order in Iran. The elevations, however, have the most notable part proved by Geographically weighted regression model. Iran's thermal analysis through hotspot showed that hot thermal patterns (very hot, hot, and semi-hot) were dominant in the South, covering an area of 33.5% (about 552,145.3 km2). Regions such as mountain foot and low lands lack any significant spatial autocorrelation, 25.2% covering about 415,345.1 km2. The last is the cold thermal area (very cold, cold, and semi-cold) with about 25.2% covering about 552,145.3 km2 of the whole area of Iran.

Westerly Wind Bursts: a Synoptic-Dynamic Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartten, Leslie Marie

This research examines the synoptic and climatological settings of westerly wind bursts (WWBs) during the 1980s and the dynamical processes active during them. Probabilities of strong westerly and easterly 1000 mb winds over the western equatorial Pacific are presented. Westerlies exhibit a clear annual cycle, appearing in the north in July, moving southeastward as the year progresses, and disappearing by June. Conditional probabilities, dependent on the value of the SOI, show that strong westerlies are more likely and more geographically extensive when the SOI is low, especially from July through January. A newly developed two-dimensional classification scheme qualitatively describes the near-surface synoptic flow of almost 90% of the 131 WWBs identified during the decade. Only 8% of the WWBs are described by the pattern involving twin cyclonic circulations straddling the equator. The trades, tropical cyclones, and the southeast Asian monsoon are all at times linked to WWBs, and the synoptic patterns often contain a significant barotropic component. Breaks in WWB activity are well correlated with a cooler than normal western Pacific warm pool. However, near-equatorial WWBs do not show a good correlation with the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Four near-equatorial WWBs are examined in detail. All are associated with broad cross-equatorial flow; two also have a cyclonic circulation poleward of the westerlies. Anticyclonic relative vorticity equatorward of the burst displaces the zero line of absolute vorticity, eta, into the burst hemisphere. In the three Southern Hemisphere cases, horizontal advection in a region extending from north of New Guinea east-southeast toward the dateline is crucial to the generation and maintenance of the eta pattern. Vorticity stretching associated with convection helps maintain a tight gradient of eta near and poleward of the burst, but also drives the eta = 0 line back towards the equator as the burst ends. In the Northern Hemisphere case, advection is less efficient because the trades slow and turn further away from the equator. This research indicates that Gill's (1980) solution to the linear shallow -water equations forced by near-equatorial heating is not a good model for WWBs.

The Pacific Coast Fog Project: A Multi-disciplinary Effort to Provide Web-based Climate Products for Ecologists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torregrosa, A.; Combs, C.; Ellrod, G. P.; Faloona, I. C.; Gultepe, I.

2012-12-01

The Pacific Coast Fog Project is an effort to pool the expertise from multiple science disciplines to provide regional and local climate information on the frequency and character of fog for effective management of coastal California natural resources. Marine stratocumulus (fog) is a major modifier of the climatic condition along the Pacific coast and has significant effects on the hydrologic cycle and thermodynamic balance in coastal ecological, biological, and economic systems. For example fog is the major source of moisture during summer months for redwood forests, a treasured natural resource. Fog also modulates shallow stream temperatures to reduce the mortality rate of young salmon during their freshwater life stages and adults returning from the ocean to spawn. Fog induced cooling reduces summer energy costs along the Pacific Coast and reduces sun burn on crops such as grapes that are important to the local economy. Furthermore, disruptions in fog distribution or frequency resulting from future climate change would change evapotranspiration rates impacting California water supply and use. Coastal fog is a complex phenomenon with many measurable parameters including extent, frequency, and duration of cloud cover; cloud deck thickness, liquid water content, base height above land, density, heterogeneity, and thermal properties. Variations in fog are a result of processes acting at multiple scales across ocean-land-atmosphere boundaries. Factors that drive the occurrence, duration, and type of fog events along the coast include dynamics of atmospheric summertime inversions, synoptic weather patterns, ocean upwelling, topography, aerosol-cloud dynamics, and differences in temperature between inland valleys and the littoral ocean areas. Estimating the distribution, frequency and characteristics of coastal fog and stratus and evaluating the resulting ecosystem responses require a diverse array of measurements and models that link processes at multiple scales. The project leverages results from existing research projects, such as long-term fog climatology based on surface land and buoy observations ongoing at the University of Washington, and California fog climatology derived from 11 years of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data underway at the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) at Colorado State University in Ft. Collins. There are numerous other collaborators from academia (such as several University of California oceanographic and atmospheric science departments) and government agencies (U. S. Geological Survey, National Weather Service, NASA, and Environment Canada). During the summer of 2012, a pilot project deployed sensors on loan from Environment Canada to augment existing instruments at Bodega Bay, California and Pepperwood Preserve in Sonoma County to gather important data sets on mesoscale and microphysical variables including liquid water content, surface wind, visibility, temperature, and boundary layer height that will be used to better describe the characteristics of coastal fog. Sample transects for significant fog events along with examples of antecedent synoptic weather conditions and mockups of possible graphic products for end users will be shown.

Modern Climate Analogues of Late-Quaternary Paleoclimates for the Western United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mock, Cary Jeffrey

This study examined spatial variations of modern and late-Quaternary climates for the western United States. Synoptic climatological analyses of the modern record identified the predominate climatic controls that normally produce the principal modes of spatial climatic variability. They also provided a modern standard to assess past climates. Maps of the month-to-month changes in 500 mb heights, sea-level pressure, temperature, and precipitation illustrated how different climatic controls govern the annual cycle of climatic response. The patterns of precipitation ratios, precipitation bar graphs, and the seasonal precipitation maximum provided additional insight into how different climatic controls influence spatial climatic variations. Synoptic-scale patterns from general circulation model (GCM) simulations or from analyses of climatic indices were used as the basis for finding modern climate analogues for 18 ka and 9 ka. Composite anomaly maps of atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and temperature were compared with effective moisture maps compiled from proxy data to infer how the patterns, which were evident from the proxy data, were generated. The analyses of the modern synoptic climatology indicate that smaller-scale climatic controls must be considered along with larger-scale ones in order to explain patterns of spatial climate heterogeneity. Climatic extremes indicate that changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation seasonality are the exception rather than the rule, reflecting the strong influence of smaller-scale controls. Modern climate analogues for both 18 ka and 9 ka clearly depict the dry Northwest/wet Southwest contrast that is suggested by GCM simulations and paleoclimatic evidence. 18 ka analogues also show the importance of smaller-scale climatic controls in explaining spatial climatic variation in the Northwest and northern Great Plains. 9 ka analogues provide climatological explanations for patterns of spatial heterogeneity over several mountainous areas as suggested by paleoclimatic evidence. Modern analogues of past climates supplement modeling approaches by providing information below the resolution of model simulations. Analogues can be used to examine the controls of spatial paleoclimatic variation if sufficient instrumental data and paleoclimatic evidence are available, and if one carefully exercises uniformitarianism when extrapolating modern relationships to the past.

Fundamental statistical relationships between monthly and daily meteorological variables: Temporal downscaling of weather based on a global observational dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sommer, Philipp; Kaplan, Jed

2016-04-01

Accurate modelling of large-scale vegetation dynamics, hydrology, and other environmental processes requires meteorological forcing on daily timescales. While meteorological data with high temporal resolution is becoming increasingly available, simulations for the future or distant past are limited by lack of data and poor performance of climate models, e.g., in simulating daily precipitation. To overcome these limitations, we may temporally downscale monthly summary data to a daily time step using a weather generator. Parameterization of such statistical models has traditionally been based on a limited number of observations. Recent developments in the archiving, distribution, and analysis of "big data" datasets provide new opportunities for the parameterization of a temporal downscaling model that is applicable over a wide range of climates. Here we parameterize a WGEN-type weather generator using more than 50 million individual daily meteorological observations, from over 10'000 stations covering all continents, based on the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) and Synoptic Cloud Reports (EECRA) databases. Using the resulting "universal" parameterization and driven by monthly summaries, we downscale mean temperature (minimum and maximum), cloud cover, and total precipitation, to daily estimates. We apply a hybrid gamma-generalized Pareto distribution to calculate daily precipitation amounts, which overcomes much of the inability of earlier weather generators to simulate high amounts of daily precipitation. Our globally parameterized weather generator has numerous applications, including vegetation and crop modelling for paleoenvironmental studies.

Simulation and analysis of synoptic scale dust storms over the Arabian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beegum, S. Naseema; Gherboudj, Imen; Chaouch, Naira; Temimi, Marouane; Ghedira, Hosni

2018-01-01

Dust storms are among the most severe environmental problems in arid and semi-arid regions of the world. The predictability of seven dust events, viz. D1: April 2-4, 2014; D2: February 23-24, 2015; D3: April 1-3, 2015; D4: March 26-28, 2016; D5: August 3-5, 2016; D6: March 13-14, 2017 and D7:March 19-21, 2017, are investigated over the Arabian Peninsula using a regionally adapted chemistry transport model CHIMERE coupled with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. The hourly forecast products of particulate matter concentrations (PM10) and aerosol optical depths (AOD) are compared against both satellite-based (MSG/SEVRI RGB dust, MODIS Deep Blue Aerosol Optical Depth: DB-AOD, Ozone Monitoring Instrument observed UV Aerosol Absorption Index: OMI-AI) and ground-based (AERONET AOD) remote sensing products. The spatial pattern and the time series of the simulations show good agreement with the observations in terms of the dust intensity as well as the spatiotemporal distribution. The causative mechanisms of these dust events are identified by the concurrent analyses of the meteorological data. From these seven storms, five are associated with synoptic scale meteorological processes, such as prefrontal storms (D1 and D7), postfrontal storms of short (D2), and long (D3) duration types, and a summer shamal storm (D6). However, the storms D4 and D6 are partly associated with mesoscale convective type dust episodes known as haboobs. The socio-economic impacts of the dust events have been assessed by estimating the horizontal visibility, air quality index (AQI), and the dust deposition flux (DDF) from the forecasted dust concentrations. During the extreme dust events, the horizontal visibility drops to near-zero values co-occurred withhazardous levels of AQI and extremely high dust deposition flux (250 μg cm- 2 day- 1).

Regional Analysis of Long-term Local and Synoptic Effects on Wind Velocity and Energy Patterns in Complex Terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belu, R.; Koracin, D. R.

2017-12-01

Investments in renewable energy are justified in both environmental and economic terms. Climate change risks call for mitigation strategies aimed to reduce pollutant emissions, while the energy supply is facing high uncertainty by the current or future global economic and political contexts. Wind energy is playing a strategic role in the efforts of any country for sustainable development and energy supply security. Wind energy is a weather and climate-dependent resource, having a natural spatio-temporal variability at time scales ranging from fraction of seconds to seasons and years, while at spatial scales is strongly affected by the topography and vegetation. Main objective of the study is to investigate spatio-temporal characteristics of the wind velocity in the Southwest U.S., that are relevant to wind energy assessment, analysis, development, operation, and grid integration, by using long-term multiple meteorological tower observations. Wind velocity data and other meteorological parameters from five towers, located near Tonopah, Nevada, operated between 2003 to 2008, and from three towers are located in Carson Valley, Nevada, operated between 2006 and 2014 were used in this study. Multi-annual wind speed data collected did not show significant increase trends with increasing elevation; the differences are mainly governed by the topographic complexity, including local atmospheric circulations. Auto- and cross-correlations show a strong coherence between the wind speed and direction with slowly decreasing amplitude of the multi-day periodicity with increasing lag periods. Besides pronounced diurnal periodicity at all locations, detrended fluctuation analysis also showed significant seasonal and annual periodicities, and long-memory persistence with similar characteristics. In spite of significant differences in mean wind speeds among the towers, due to location specifics, the relatively high auto- and cross-correlation coefficients among the towers indicate that the regional synoptic processes are dominant for wind variability.

Development of a Water Clarity Index for the Southeastern U.S. As a Climate Indicator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, S. C.; Hu, C.; Lee, C. C.; Barnes, B.; Pirhalla, D.; Ransi, V.; Shein, K. A.

2014-12-01

A common index of water quality is water clarity, which can be estimated by measuring the diffuse attenuation coefficient for downwelling irradiance (Kd). Kd estimates the availability of light to marine organisms at various depths. Marine habitats, including such species as coral and seagrass, can be negatively affected by extreme episodes of sediment suspension, where water clarity is reduced and little light penetrates. Evidence of increased stress on coastal ecosystems exists, partially due to climate change, yet a systematic analysis of extreme events and trends is difficult due to limited data. To address this concern, we have developed as a potential climate indicator a Kd-Index for nine regions along the US coast of the Gulf of Mexico, in which Kd values have been standardized over time and space to allow for a more holistic assessment of climate drivers and their trends. Variability in the Kd-Index is then assessed with regard to occurrences of surface weather types (using the Spatial Synoptic Classification), a synoptic climatology of mean sea-level-pressure patterns across the region, along with heavy precipitation events. Kd can be estimated from MODIS and SeaWiFS observations from 1997 to date; an earlier period of satellite observations from 1978-86 is also available. A non-linear autoregressive neural network model with external input (NARX) is used to develop the historical relationship between Kd-Index and atmospheric conditions, and then this model is used to simulate a full time series from 1948 to 2013. The modeled data set is strongly correlated with observations, with correlations above 0.8 for many regions. Hit rates of extreme Kd-Index values - those which would most likely be associated with a negative environmental impact - exceed 70% in some regions. Across the full data set, long term trends vary slightly across regions but are generally small. Trends in extreme events appear to be more consistently increasing across the domain.

The influence of the synoptic regime on stable water isotopes in precipitation at Dome C, East Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlosser, Elisabeth; Dittmann, Anna; Stenni, Barbara; Powers, Jordan G.; Manning, Kevin W.; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Valt, Mauro; Cagnati, Anselmo; Grigioni, Paolo; Scarchilli, Claudio

2017-10-01

The correct derivation of paleotemperatures from ice cores requires exact knowledge of all processes involved before and after the deposition of snow and the subsequent formation of ice. At the Antarctic deep ice core drilling site Dome C, a unique data set of daily precipitation amount, type, and stable water isotope ratios is available that enables us to study in detail atmospheric processes that influence the stable water isotope ratio of precipitation. Meteorological data from both automatic weather station and a mesoscale atmospheric model were used to investigate how different atmospheric flow patterns determine the precipitation parameters. A classification of synoptic situations that cause precipitation at Dome C was established and, together with back-trajectory calculations, was utilized to estimate moisture source areas. With the resulting source area conditions (wind speed, sea surface temperature, and relative humidity) as input, the precipitation stable isotopic composition was modeled using the so-called Mixed Cloud Isotope Model (MCIM). The model generally underestimates the depletion of 18O in precipitation, which was not improved by using condensation temperature rather than inversion temperature. Contrary to the assumption widely used in ice core studies, a more northern moisture source does not necessarily mean stronger isotopic fractionation. This is due to the fact that snowfall events at Dome C are often associated with warm air advection due to amplification of planetary waves, which considerably increases the site temperature and thus reduces the temperature difference between source area and deposition site. In addition, no correlation was found between relative humidity at the moisture source and the deuterium excess in precipitation. The significant difference in the isotopic signal of hoarfrost and diamond dust was shown to disappear after removal of seasonality. This study confirms the results of an earlier study carried out at Dome Fuji with a shorter data set using the same methods.

Statistical modeling of urban air temperature distributions under different synoptic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Christoph; Breitner, Susanne; Cyrys, Josef; Hald, Cornelius; Hartz, Uwe; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Richter, Katja; Schneider, Alexandra; Wolf, Kathrin

2015-04-01

Within urban areas air temperature may vary distinctly between different locations. These intra-urban air temperature variations partly reach magnitudes that are relevant with respect to human thermal comfort. Therefore and furthermore taking into account potential interrelations with other health related environmental factors (e.g. air quality) it is important to estimate spatial patterns of intra-urban air temperature distributions that may be incorporated into urban planning processes. In this contribution we present an approach to estimate spatial temperature distributions in the urban area of Augsburg (Germany) by means of statistical modeling. At 36 locations in the urban area of Augsburg air temperatures are measured with high temporal resolution (4 min.) since December 2012. These 36 locations represent different typical urban land use characteristics in terms of varying percentage coverages of different land cover categories (e.g. impervious, built-up, vegetated). Percentage coverages of these land cover categories have been extracted from different sources (Open Street Map, European Urban Atlas, Urban Morphological Zones) for regular grids of varying size (50, 100, 200 meter horizonal resolution) for the urban area of Augsburg. It is well known from numerous studies that land use characteristics have a distinct influence on air temperature and as well other climatic variables at a certain location. Therefore air temperatures at the 36 locations are modeled utilizing land use characteristics (percentage coverages of land cover categories) as predictor variables in Stepwise Multiple Regression models and in Random Forest based model approaches. After model evaluation via cross-validation appropriate statistical models are applied to gridded land use data to derive spatial urban air temperature distributions. Varying models are tested and applied for different seasons and times of the day and also for different synoptic conditions (e.g. clear and calm situations, cloudy and windy situations). Based on hourly air temperature data from our measurements in the urban area of Augsburg distinct temperature differences between locations with different urban land use characteristics are revealed. Under clear and calm weather conditions differences between mean hourly air temperatures reach values around 8°C. Whereas during cloudy and windy weather maximum differences in mean hourly air temperatures do not exceed 5°C. Differences appear usually slightly more pronounced in summer than in winter. First results from the application of statistical modeling approaches reveal promising skill of the models in terms of explained variances reaching up to 60% in leave-one-out cross-validation experiments. The contribution depicts the methodology of our approach and presents and discusses first results.

Dynamical analysis of extreme precipitation in the US northeast based on large-scale meteorological patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agel, Laurie; Barlow, Mathew; Colby, Frank; Binder, Hanin; Catto, Jennifer L.; Hoell, Andrew; Cohen, Judah

2018-05-01

Previous work has identified six large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) of dynamic tropopause height associated with extreme precipitation over the Northeast US, with extreme precipitation defined as the top 1% of daily station precipitation. Here, we examine the three-dimensional structure of the tropopause LSMPs in terms of circulation and factors relevant to precipitation, including moisture, stability, and synoptic mechanisms associated with lifting. Within each pattern, the link between the different factors and extreme precipitation is further investigated by comparing the relative strength of the factors between days with and without the occurrence of extreme precipitation. The six tropopause LSMPs include two ridge patterns, two eastern US troughs, and two troughs centered over the Ohio Valley, with a strong seasonality associated with each pattern. Extreme precipitation in the ridge patterns is associated with both convective mechanisms (instability combined with moisture transport from the Great Lakes and Western Atlantic) and synoptic forcing related to Great Lakes storm tracks and embedded shortwaves. Extreme precipitation associated with eastern US troughs involves intense southerly moisture transport and strong quasi-geostrophic forcing of vertical velocity. Ohio Valley troughs are associated with warm fronts and intense warm conveyor belts that deliver large amounts of moisture ahead of storms, but little direct quasi-geostrophic forcing. Factors that show the largest difference between days with and without extreme precipitation include integrated moisture transport, low-level moisture convergence, warm conveyor belts, and quasi-geostrophic forcing, with the relative importance varying between patterns.

Comparing exposure metrics for classifying ‘dangerous heat’ in heat wave and health warning systems

PubMed Central

Zhang, Kai; Rood, Richard B.; Michailidis, George; Oswald, Evan M.; Schwartz, Joel D.; Zanobetti, Antonella; Ebi, Kristie L.; O’Neill, Marie S.

2012-01-01

Heat waves have been linked to excess mortality and morbidity, and are projected to increase in frequency and intensity with a warming climate. This study compares exposure metrics to trigger heat wave and health warning systems (HHWS), and introduces a novel multi-level hybrid clustering method to identify potential dangerously hot days. Two-level and three-level hybrid clustering analysis as well as common indices used to trigger HHWS, including spatial synoptic classification (SSC); and 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles of minimum and relative minimum temperature (using a 10 day reference period), were calculated using a summertime weather dataset in Detroit from 1976 to 2006. The days classified as ‘hot’ with hybrid clustering analysis, SSC, minimum and relative minimum temperature methods differed by method type. SSC tended to include the days with, on average, 2.6 °C lower daily minimum temperature and 5.3 °C lower dew point than days identified by other methods. These metrics were evaluated by comparing their performance in predicting excess daily mortality. The 99th percentile of minimum temperature was generally the most predictive, followed by the three-level hybrid clustering method, the 95th percentile of minimum temperature, SSC and others. Our proposed clustering framework has more flexibility and requires less substantial meteorological prior information than the synoptic classification methods. Comparison of these metrics in predicting excess daily mortality suggests that metrics thought to better characterize physiological heat stress by considering several weather conditions simultaneously may not be the same metrics that are better at predicting heat-related mortality, which has significant implications in HHWSs. PMID:22673187

An operational mesoscale ensemble data assimilation and prediction system: E-RTFDDA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Hopson, T.; Roux, G.; Hacker, J.; Xu, M.; Warner, T.; Swerdlin, S.

2009-04-01

Mesoscale (2-2000 km) meteorological processes differ from synoptic circulations in that mesoscale weather changes rapidly in space and time, and physics processes that are parameterized in NWP models play a great role. Complex interactions of synoptic circulations, regional and local terrain, land-surface heterogeneity, and associated physical properties, and the physical processes of radiative transfer, cloud and precipitation and boundary layer mixing, are crucial in shaping regional weather and climate. Mesoscale ensemble analysis and prediction should sample the uncertainties of mesoscale modeling systems in representing these factors. An innovative mesoscale Ensemble Real-Time Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (E-RTFDDA) and forecasting system has been developed at NCAR. E-RTFDDA contains diverse ensemble perturbation approaches that consider uncertainties in all major system components to produce multi-scale continuously-cycling probabilistic data assimilation and forecasting. A 30-member E-RTFDDA system with three nested domains with grid sizes of 30, 10 and 3.33 km has been running on a Department of Defense high-performance computing platform since September 2007. It has been applied at two very different US geographical locations; one in the western inter-mountain area and the other in the northeastern states, producing 6 hour analyses and 48 hour forecasts, with 4 forecast cycles a day. The operational model outputs are analyzed to a) assess overall ensemble performance and properties, b) study terrain effect on mesoscale predictability, c) quantify the contribution of different ensemble perturbation approaches to the overall forecast skill, and d) assess the additional contributed skill from an ensemble calibration process based on a quantile-regression algorithm. The system and the results will be reported at the meeting.

Robustness of serial clustering of extra-tropical cyclones to the choice of tracking method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinto, Joaquim G.; Ulbrich, Sven; Karremann, Melanie K.; Stephenson, David B.; Economou, Theodoros; Shaffrey, Len C.

2016-04-01

Cyclone families are a frequent synoptic weather feature in the Euro-Atlantic area in winter. Given appropriate large-scale conditions, the occurrence of such series (clusters) of storms may lead to large socio-economic impacts and cumulative losses. Recent studies analyzing Reanalysis data using single cyclone tracking methods have shown that serial clustering of cyclones occurs on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track. This study explores the sensitivity of serial clustering to the choice of tracking method. With this aim, the IMILAST cyclone track database based on ERA-interim data is analysed. Clustering is estimated by the dispersion (ratio of variance to mean) of winter (DJF) cyclones passages near each grid point over the Euro-Atlantic area. Results indicate that while the general pattern of clustering is identified for all methods, there are considerable differences in detail. This can primarily be attributed to the differences in the variance of cyclone counts between the methods, which range up to one order of magnitude. Nevertheless, clustering over the Eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe can be identified for all methods and can thus be generally considered as a robust feature. The statistical links between large-scale patterns like the NAO and clustering are obtained for all methods, though with different magnitudes. We conclude that the occurrence of cyclone clustering over the Eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe is largely independent from the choice of tracking method and hence from the definition of a cyclone.

Impacts of 2000-2050 Climate Change on Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Air Quality in China Based on Statistical Projections Using an Ensemble of Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, D. M.; Tai, A. P. K.; Shen, L.; Moch, J. M.; van Donkelaar, A.; Mickley, L. J.

2017-12-01

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality is strongly dependent on not only on emissions but also meteorological conditions. Here we examine the dominant synoptic circulation patterns that control day-to-day PM2.5 variability over China. We perform principal component (PC) analysis on 1998-2016 NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis I daily meteorological fields to diagnose distinct synoptic meteorological modes, and perform PC regression on spatially interpolated 2014-2016 daily mean PM2.5 concentrations in China to identify modes dominantly explaining PM2.5 variability. We find that synoptic systems, e.g., cold-frontal passages, maritime inflow and frontal precipitation, can explain up to 40% of the day-to-day PM2.5 variability in major metropolitan regions in China. We further investigate how annually changing frequencies of synoptic systems, as well as changing local meteorology, drive interannual PM2.5 variability. We apply a spectral analysis on the PC time series to obtain the 1998-2016 annual median synoptic frequency, and use a forward-selection multiple linear regression (MLR) model of satellite-derived 1998-2015 annual mean PM2.5 concentrations on local meteorology and synoptic frequency, selecting predictors that explain the highest fraction of interannual PM2.5 variability while guarding against multicollinearity. To estimate the effect of climate change on future PM2.5 air quality, we project a multimodel ensemble of 15 CMIP5 models under the RCP8.5 scenario on the PM2.5-to-meteorology sensitivities derived for the present-day from the MLR model. Our results show that climate change could be responsible for increases in PM2.5 of more than 25 μg m-3 in northwestern China and 10 mg m-3 in northeastern China by the 2050s. Increases in synoptic frequency of cold-frontal passages cause only a modest 1 μg m-3 decrease in PM2.5 in North China Plain. Our analyses show that climate change imposes a significant penalty on air quality over China and poses serious threat on human health under the RCP8.5 future.

A Coastal Bay Summer Breeze Study, Part 1: Results of the Quiberon 2006 Experimental Campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mestayer, Patrice G.; Calmet, Isabelle; Herlédant, Olivier; Barré, Sophie; Piquet, Thibaud; Rosant, Jean-Michel

2018-04-01

The Quiberon 2006 experiment was launched to document the onset and development of land and sea breezes over a semi-circular coastal bay propitious to inshore sailing competitions. The measurements were taken during the 2 weeks of 16-28 June 2006. Micrometeorological variables were recorded at three shore sites around the bay using turbulence sensors on 10-30-m high masts, on four instrumented catamarans at selected sites within the bay, and at a fourth shore site with a Sodar. Synoptic data and local measurements are analyzed here from the point of view of both micrometeorologists and competition skippers, testing in particular the empirical rules of breeze veering and backing according to the wind direction with respect to the coastline orientation at the mesoscale (the quadrant theory). Our analysis focuses on the patterns of lower-altitude wind direction and speed around the bay and over the water basin, and the temporal variations during the periods of the breeze onset, establishment and thermal reinforcement. In offshore synoptic-flow conditions (quadrants 1 and 2), the clockwise rotation of the surface flow had a very large amplitude, reaching up to 360°. The breeze strength was negatively correlated to that of the synoptic wind speed. In conditions of onshore synoptic flow from the west (quadrant 3) at an angle to the mainland coast but perpendicular to the Quiberon peninsula, the rotation of the flow was backwards in the early morning and clockwise during the day with a moderate amplitude (40°-50°) around the synoptic wind direction. As the surface wind speed was much larger than the synoptic wind speed, such a case we have designated as a "synoptic breeze". The breeze onset was shown to fail several times under the influence of weak non-thermal events, e.g., the passage of an occluded front or clouds or an excess of convection. Finally, several local-scale influences of the complex coastal shape appeared in our measurements, e.g., wind fanning in the lee of the isthmus and airflow skirting around the peninsula forehand.

The changing sensitivity of power systems to meteorological drivers: a case study of Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloomfield, H. C.; Brayshaw, D. J.; Shaffrey, L. C.; Coker, P. J.; Thornton, H. E.

2018-05-01

The increasing use of intermittent renewable generation (such as wind) is increasing the exposure of national power systems to meteorological variability. This study identifies how the integration of wind power in one particular country (Great Britain, GB) is affecting the overall sensitivity of the power system to weather using three key metrics: total annual energy requirement, peak residual load (from sources other than wind) and wind power curtailment. The present-day level of wind power capacity (approximately 15 GW) is shown to have already changed the power system’s overall sensitivity to weather in terms of the total annual energy requirement, from a temperature- to a wind-dominated regime (which occurred with 6GW of installed wind power capacity). Peak residual load from sources other than wind also shows a similar shift. The associated changes in the synoptic- and large-scale meteorological drivers associated with each metric are identified and discussed. In a period where power systems are changing rapidly, it is therefore argued that past experience of the weather impacts on the GB power system may not be a good guide for the impact on the present or near-future power system.

Spectral Gap Energy Transfer in Atmospheric Boundary Layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhushan, S.; Walters, K.; Barros, A. P.; Nogueira, M.

2012-12-01

Experimental measurements of atmospheric turbulence energy spectra show E(k) ~ k-3 slopes at synoptic scales (~ 600 km - 2000 km) and k-5/3 slopes at the mesoscales (< 400 km). The -5/3 spectra is presumably related to 3D turbulence which is dominated by the classical Kolmogrov energy cascade. The -3 spectra is related to 2D turbulence, which is dominated by strong forward scatter of enstrophy and weak forward scatter of energy. In classical 2D turbulence theory, it is expected that a strong backward energy cascade would develop at the synoptic scale, and that circulation would grow infinitely. To limit this backward transfer, energy arrest at macroscales must be introduced. The most commonly used turbulence models developed to mimic the above energy transfer include the energy backscatter model for 2D turbulence in the horizontal plane via Large Eddy Simulation (LES) models, dissipative URANS models in the vertical plane, and Ekman friction for the energy arrest. One of the controversial issues surrounding the atmospheric turbulence spectra is the explanation of the generation of the 2D and 3D spectra and transition between them, for energy injection at the synoptic scales. Lilly (1989) proposed that the existence of 2D and 3D spectra can only be explained by the presence of an additional energy injection in the meso-scale region. A second issue is related to the observations of dual peak spectra with small variance in meso-scale, suggesting that the energy transfer occurs across a spectral gap (Van Der Hoven, 1957). Several studies have confirmed the spectral gap for the meso-scale circulations, and have suggested that they are enhanced by smaller scale vertical convection rather than by the synoptic scales. Further, the widely accepted energy arrest mechanism by boundary layer friction is closely related to the spectral gap transfer. This study proposes an energy transfer mechanism for atmospheric turbulence with synoptic scale injection, wherein the generation of 2D and 3D spectra is explained using spectral gap energy transfer. The existence of the spectral gap energy transfer is validated by performing LES for the interaction of large scale circulation with a wall, and studying the evolution of the energy spectra both near to and far from the wall. Simulations are also performed using the Advanced Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF-ARW) for moist zonal flow over Gaussian ridge, and the energy spectra close and away from the ground are studied. The energy spectra predicted by WRF-ARW are qualitatively compared with LES results to emphasize the limitations of the currently used turbulence parameterizations. Ongoing validation efforts include: (1) extending the interaction of large scale circulation with wall simulations to finer grids to capture a wider range of wavenumbers; and (2) a coupled 2D-3D simulation is planned to predict the entire atmospheric turbulence spectra at a very low computational expense. The overarching objective of this study to develop turbulence modeling capability based on the energy transfer mechanisms proposed in this study. Such a model will be implemented in WRF-ARW, and applied to atmospheric simulations, for example the prediction of moisture convergence patterns at the meso-scale in the southeast United States (Tao & Barros, 2008).

Meteorological conditions in a thinner Arctic sea ice regime from winter to summer during the Norwegian Young Sea Ice expedition (N-ICE2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Lana; Hudson, Stephen R.; Walden, Von P.; Graham, Robert M.; Granskog, Mats A.

2017-07-01

Atmospheric measurements were made over Arctic sea ice north of Svalbard from winter to early summer (January-June) 2015 during the Norwegian Young Sea Ice (N-ICE2015) expedition. These measurements, which are available publicly, represent a comprehensive meteorological data set covering the seasonal transition in the Arctic Basin over the new, thinner sea ice regime. Winter was characterized by a succession of storms that produced short-lived (less than 48 h) temperature increases of 20 to 30 K at the surface. These storms were driven by the hemispheric scale circulation pattern with a large meridional component of the polar jet stream steering North Atlantic storms into the high Arctic. Nonstorm periods during winter were characterized by strong surface temperature inversions due to strong radiative cooling ("radiatively clear state"). The strength and depth of these inversions were similar to those during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) campaign. In contrast, atmospheric profiles during the "opaquely cloudy state" were different to those from SHEBA due to differences in the synoptic conditions and location within the ice pack. Storm events observed during spring/summer were the result of synoptic systems located in the Barents Sea and the Arctic Basin rather than passing directly over N-ICE2015. These synoptic systems were driven by a large-scale circulation pattern typical of recent years, with an Arctic Dipole pattern developing during June. Surface temperatures became near-constant 0°C on 1 June marking the beginning of summer. Atmospheric profiles during the spring and early summer show persistent lifted temperature and moisture inversions that are indicative of clouds and cloud processes.

Synoptic thermodynamic and dynamic patterns associated with Quitandinha River flooding events in Petropolis, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silva, Fabricio Polifke; Justi da Silva, Maria Gertrudes Alvarez; Rotunno Filho, Otto Corrêa; Pires, Gisele Dornelles; Sampaio, Rafael João; de Araújo, Afonso Augusto Magalhães

2018-05-01

Natural disasters are the result of extreme or intense natural phenomena that cause severe impacts on society. These impacts can be mitigated through preventive measures that can be aided by better knowledge of extreme phenomena and monitoring of forecasting and alert systems. The city of Petropolis (in a mountainous region of the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) is prone to heavy rain events, often leading to River overflows, landslides, and loss of life. In that context, this work endeavored to characterize the thermodynamic and dynamic synoptic patterns that trigger heavy rainfall episodes and the corresponding flooding of Quitandinha River. More specifically, we reviewed events from the time period between January 2013 and December 2014 using reanalysis data. We expect that the overall description obtained of synoptic patterns should provide adequate qualitative aid to the decision-making processes involved in operational forecasting procedures. We noticed that flooding events were related to the presence of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), frontal systems (FS), and convective storms (CS). These systems showed a similar behavior on high-frequency wind components, notably with respect to northwest winds before precipitation and to a strong southwest wind component during rainfall events. Clustering analyses indicated that the main component for precipitation formation with regard to CS systems comes from daytime heating, with the dynamic component presenting greater efficiency for the FS configurations. The SACZ events were influenced by moisture availability along the vertical column of the atmosphere and also due to dynamic components of precipitation efficiency and daytime heating, the latter related to the continuous transport of moisture from the Amazon region and South Atlantic Ocean towards Rio de Janeiro state.

Comparison of present global reanalysis datasets in the context of a statistical downscaling method for precipitation prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, Pascal; Weingartner, Rolf; Brönnimann, Stefan

2017-04-01

The analogue method is a statistical downscaling method for precipitation prediction. It uses similarity in terms of synoptic-scale predictors with situations in the past in order to provide a probabilistic prediction for the day of interest. It has been used for decades in a context of weather or flood forecasting, and is more recently also applied to climate studies, whether for reconstruction of past weather conditions or future climate impact studies. In order to evaluate the relationship between synoptic scale predictors and the local weather variable of interest, e.g. precipitation, reanalysis datasets are necessary. Nowadays, the number of available reanalysis datasets increases. These are generated by different atmospheric models with different assimilation techniques and offer various spatial and temporal resolutions. A major difference between these datasets is also the length of the archive they provide. While some datasets start at the beginning of the satellite era (1980) and assimilate these data, others aim at homogeneity on a longer period (e.g. 20th century) and only assimilate conventional observations. The context of the application of analogue methods might drive the choice of an appropriate dataset, for example when the archive length is a leading criterion. However, in many studies, a reanalysis dataset is subjectively chosen, according to the user's preferences or the ease of access. The impact of this choice on the results of the downscaling procedure is rarely considered and no comprehensive comparison has been undertaken so far. In order to fill this gap and to advise on the choice of appropriate datasets, nine different global reanalysis datasets were compared in seven distinct versions of analogue methods, over 300 precipitation stations in Switzerland. Significant differences in terms of prediction performance were identified. Although the impact of the reanalysis dataset on the skill score varies according to the chosen predictor, be it atmospheric circulation or thermodynamic variables, some hierarchy between the datasets is often preserved. This work can thus help choosing an appropriate dataset for the analogue method, or raise awareness of the consequences of using a certain dataset.

A Gridded Climatology of Clouds over Land (1971-1996) and Ocean (1954-2008) from Surface Observations Worldwide (NDP-026E)*

DOE Data Explorer

Hahn, C. J. [University of Arizona; Warren, S. G. [University of Washington

2007-01-01

Surface synoptic weather reports from ships and land stations worldwide were processed to produce a global cloud climatology which includes: total cloud cover, the amount and frequency of occurrence of nine cloud types within three levels of the troposphere, the frequency of occurrence of clear sky and of precipitation, the base heights of low clouds, and the non-overlapped amounts of middle and high clouds. Synoptic weather reports are made every three hours; the cloud information in a report is obtained visually by human observers. The reports used here cover the period 1971-96 for land and 1954-2008 for ocean. This digital archive provides multi-year monthly, seasonal, and annual averages in 5x5-degree grid boxes (or 10x10-degree boxes for some quantities over the ocean). Daytime and nighttime averages, as well as the diurnal average (average of day and night), are given. Nighttime averages were computed using only those reports that met an "illuminance criterion" (i.e., made under adequate moonlight or twilight), thus minimizing the "night-detection bias" and making possible the determination of diurnal cycles and nighttime trends for cloud types. The phase and amplitude of the first harmonic of both the diurnal cycle and the annual cycle are given for the various cloud types. Cloud averages for individual years are also given for the ocean for each of 4 seasons, and for each of the 12 months (daytime-only averages for the months). [Individual years for land are not gridded, but are given for individual stations in a companion data set, CDIAC's NDP-026D).] This analysis used 185 million reports from 5388 weather stations on continents and islands, and 50 million reports from ships; these reports passed a series of quality-control checks. This analysis updates (and in most ways supercedes) the previous cloud climatology constructed by the authors in the 1980s. Many of the long-term averages described here are mapped on the University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Web site. The Online Cloud Atlas containing NDP-026E data is available via the University of Washington.

Integration of Weather Avoidance and Traffic Separation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Consiglio, Maria C.; Chamberlain, James P.; Wilson, Sara R.

2011-01-01

This paper describes a dynamic convective weather avoidance concept that compensates for weather motion uncertainties; the integration of this weather avoidance concept into a prototype 4-D trajectory-based Airborne Separation Assurance System (ASAS) application; and test results from a batch (non-piloted) simulation of the integrated application with high traffic densities and a dynamic convective weather model. The weather model can simulate a number of pseudo-random hazardous weather patterns, such as slow- or fast-moving cells and opening or closing weather gaps, and also allows for modeling of onboard weather radar limitations in range and azimuth. The weather avoidance concept employs nested "core" and "avoid" polygons around convective weather cells, and the simulations assess the effectiveness of various avoid polygon sizes in the presence of different weather patterns, using traffic scenarios representing approximately two times the current traffic density in en-route airspace. Results from the simulation experiment show that the weather avoidance concept is effective over a wide range of weather patterns and cell speeds. Avoid polygons that are only 2-3 miles larger than their core polygons are sufficient to account for weather uncertainties in almost all cases, and traffic separation performance does not appear to degrade with the addition of weather polygon avoidance. Additional "lessons learned" from the batch simulation study are discussed in the paper, along with insights for improving the weather avoidance concept. Introduction

Weather chains during the 2013/2014 winter and their significance for seasonal prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davies, Huw C.

2015-11-01

Day-to-day weather forecasting has improved substantially over the past few decades. In contrast, progress in seasonal prediction outside the tropics has been meagre and mixed. On seasonal timescales, the constraining influence of the initial atmospheric state is weak, and the internal variability associated with transient weather systems tends to be large compared with the nuanced influence of anomalies in external forcing. Current research and operational activities focus on exploring and exploiting potential links between external anomalies and seasonal-mean climate patterns. Here I examine reanalysed meteorological data sets for the unusual winter 2013/2014, with drought and freezing conditions juxtaposed over North America and severe wet and stormy weather over parts of Europe, to study the role of weather systems and their transient upper-tropospheric flow patterns. I find that the amplitude, recurrence and location of these transient patterns account directly for the corresponding anomalous seasonal-mean patterns. They occurred episodically and sequentially, were linked dynamically, and exhibited some circumpolar connectivity. I conclude that the upper-tropospheric components of transient weather systems are significant for understanding and predicting seasonal weather patterns, whereas the role of external factors is more subtle.

Identifying Patterns in Extreme Precipitation Risk and the Related Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation can harm human life and assets through flooding, hail, landslides, or debris flows. Flood risk assessments typically concentrate on river or mountain torrent channels, using water depth, flow velocity, and/or sediment deposition to quantify the risk. In addition, extreme events with high recurrence intervals are often the main focus. However, damages from short-term and localized convective showers often occur away from watercourses. Also, damages from more frequent small scale extremes, although usually less disastrous, can accumulate to considerable financial burdens. Extreme convective precipitation is expected to intensify in a warmer climate, and vulnerability patterns might change in tandem with changes in the character of precipitation and flood types. This has consequences for adaptation planners who want to establish effective protection measures and reduce the cost from natural hazards. Here we merge hydrological and exposure data to identify patterns of risk under varying synoptic conditions. Exposure is calculated from a database of 76k damage claims reported to the national disaster fund in 480 municipalities in south eastern Austria from 1990-2015. Hydrological data comprise sub-daily precipitation (59 gauges) and streamflow (62 gauges) observations. We use synoptic circulation types to identify typical precipitation patterns. They indicate the character of precipitation even if a gauge is not in close proximity, facilitating potential future research with regional climate model data. Results show that more claims are reported under synoptic conditions favouring convective precipitation (on average 1.5-3 times more than on other days). For agrarian municipalities, convective precipitation damages are among the costliest after long low-intensity precipitation events. In contrast, Alpine communities are particularly vulnerable to convective high-intensity rainfall. In addition to possible observational error, uncertainty is present in damage reporting errors, claims from private insurers and adaptation effects after damaging events. As for the latter, preliminary results indicate that investments regularly occur after big events, which may skew subsequent damage claims. Their effectiveness, though, needs to be analyzed in future research.

Lifestyles of the palaeoproterozoic stromatolite builders in the Vempalle Sea, Cuddapah Basin, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patranabis-Deb, Sarbani; Majumder, Tuasha; Khan, Sayani

2018-05-01

The distribution and changing pattern of stromatolites in the Vempalle Formation of the Cuddapah Basin, India, have been investigated with emphasis on external morphologies, internal fabrics, growth patterns and sediment associations. The stromatolitic limestone occurs in a low angle ramp type carbonate platform, with complete exposures from shallow shelf to basinal facies, provides record of changes in reef-building capacity of stromatolites with change in the depositional milieu. Changing pattern and style of the stromatolites clearly reflect depth partitioned growth of the microbial community. Small and scattered stromatolites, commonly with wavy parallel laminations or stratifications occurred in inner-ramp settings, where they are build up to the sea level. Tepee structure and desiccation cracks in associated sediments and salt pseudomorphs point to shallow water to occasional exposure condition. Large bioherms with columnar and conical stromatolites developed in the headland (mid ramp), which were in continuous interaction with strong waves of the open sea. Growth of the bioherms changed the landform with time and generated a high sloping edge with a sheer drop that extended out into the sea, forming distally steepened ramp. Outer ramp lithofacies characterized by thick layers of shale succession with thin beds of laterally persistent stromatolitic beds with low synoptic relief build-ups. These biotic components, along with the absence of wave-related structures, place the outer ramp below the base of wave action zone. Ooid banks developed in the mid ramp area are in the high surfing zone. High flux of nutrients and high-light show positive correlation; thus the high growth pattern is best observed within the photic zone where wave action is maximum. The ability to change from low synoptic relief algal laminites to high synoptic relief columnar stromatolites point to their adaptive power. The key factor that controlled the shape of these Palaeoproterozoic stromatolites is the dynamic interactions between mat growth, currents and sediment supply. Presence of concentric and radial fibrous ooids indicates change in climate and salinity of the sea.

European temperature responses to blocking and ridge regional patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Pedro M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Barriopedro, David; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Santos, João A.

2018-01-01

Blocking occurrence and its impacts on European temperature have been studied in the last decade. However, most previous studies on blocking impacts have focused on winter only, disregarding its fingerprint in summer and differences with other synoptic patterns that also trigger temperature extremes. In this work, we provide a clear distinction between high-latitude blocking and sub-tropical ridges occurring in three sectors of the Euro-Atlantic region, describing their climatology and consequent impacts on European temperature during both winter and summer. Winter blocks (ridges) are generally associated to colder (warmer) than average conditions over large regions of Europe, in some areas with anomalies larger than 5 °C, particularly for the patterns occurring in the Atlantic and Central European sectors. During summer, there is a more regional response characterized by above average temperature for both blocking and ridge patterns, especially those occurring in continental areas, although negative temperature anomalies persist in southernmost areas during blocking. An objective analysis of the different forcing mechanisms associated to each considered weather regime has been performed, quantifying the importance of the following processes in causing the temperature anomalies: horizontal advection, vertical advection and diabatic heating. While during winter advection processes tend to be more relevant to explain temperature responses, in summer radiative heating under enhanced insolation plays a crucial role for both blocking and ridges. Finally, the changes in the distributions of seasonal temperature and in the frequencies of extreme temperature indices were also examined for specific areas of Europe. Winter blocking and ridge patterns are key drivers in the occurrence of regional cold and warm extreme temperatures, respectively. In summer, they are associated with substantial changes in the frequency of extremely warm days, but with different signatures in southern Europe. We conclude that there has been some misusage of the traditional blocking definition in the attribution of extreme events.

Diagnosing Cloud Biases in the GFDL AM3 Model With Atmospheric Classification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Evans, Stuart; Marchand, Roger; Ackerman, Thomas

In this paper, we define a set of 21 atmospheric states, or recurring weather patterns, for a region surrounding the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program's Southern Great Plains site using an iterative clustering technique. The states are defined using dynamic and thermodynamic variables from reanalysis, tested for statistical significance with cloud radar data from the Southern Great Plains site, and are determined every 6 h for 14 years, creating a time series of atmospheric state. The states represent the various stages of the progression of synoptic systems through the region (e.g., warm fronts, warm sectors, cold fronts, cold northerly advection, andmore » high-pressure anticyclones) with a subset of states representing summertime conditions with varying degrees of convective activity. We use the states to classify output from the NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AM3 model to test the model's simulation of the frequency of occurrence of the states and of the cloud occurrence during each state. The model roughly simulates the frequency of occurrence of the states but exhibits systematic cloud occurrence biases. Comparison of observed and model-simulated International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project histograms of cloud top pressure and optical thickness shows that the model lacks high thin cloud under all conditions, but biases in thick cloud are state-dependent. Frontal conditions in the model do not produce enough thick cloud, while fair-weather conditions produce too much. Finally, we find that increasing the horizontal resolution of the model improves the representation of thick clouds under all conditions but has little effect on high thin clouds. However, increasing resolution also changes the distribution of states, causing an increase in total cloud occurrence bias.« less

Numerical Analysis Using WRF-SBM for the Cloud Microphysical Structures in the C3VP Field Campaign: Impacts of Supercooled Droplets and Resultant Riming on Snow Microphysics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iguchi, Takamichi; Matsui, Toshihisa; Shi, Jainn J.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Khain, Alexander P.; Hao, Arthur; Cifelli, Robert; Heymsfield, Andrew; Tokay, Ali

2012-01-01

Two distinct snowfall events are observed over the region near the Great Lakes during 19-23 January 2007 under the intensive measurement campaign of the Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO validation project (C3VP). These events are numerically investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a spectral bin microphysics (WRF-SBM) scheme that allows a smooth calculation of riming process by predicting the rimed mass fraction on snow aggregates. The fundamental structures of the observed two snowfall systems are distinctly characterized by a localized intense lake-effect snowstorm in one case and a widely distributed moderate snowfall by the synoptic-scale system in another case. Furthermore, the observed microphysical structures are distinguished by differences in bulk density of solid-phase particles, which are probably linked to the presence or absence of supercooled droplets. The WRF-SBM coupled with Goddard Satellite Data Simulator Unit (G-SDSU) has successfully simulated these distinctive structures in the three-dimensional weather prediction run with a horizontal resolution of 1 km. In particular, riming on snow aggregates by supercooled droplets is considered to be of importance in reproducing the specialized microphysical structures in the case studies. Additional sensitivity tests for the lake-effect snowstorm case are conducted utilizing different planetary boundary layer (PBL) models or the same SBM but without the riming process. The PBL process has a large impact on determining the cloud microphysical structure of the lake-effect snowstorm as well as the surface precipitation pattern, whereas the riming process has little influence on the surface precipitation because of the small height of the system.

The influence of urban heat island phenomenon on PM concentration: an observation study during the summer half-year in metropolitan Taipei, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Li-Wei

2018-01-01

Air circulation due to the urban heat island (UHI) effect can influence the dispersion of air pollutants in a metropolis. This study focusses on the influence of the UHI effect on particulate matter (PM; including PM2.5 and PM2.5-10) between May and September 2010-2012 in the Taipei basin. Meteorological and PM data were obtained from the sites, owned by the governmental authorities. The analysis was carried out using t test, relative indices (RIs), Pearson product-moment correlation and stepwise regression. The results show that the RI values for PM were the highest at moderate UHI intensity (MUI; 2 °C ≤ UHI < 4 °C) rather than at strong UHI intensity (SUI; 4 °C ≤ UHI) during the peak time for anthropogenic emissions (20:00 LST). Neither the accumulation of PM nor the surface convergence occurred in the hot centre, as shown by the case study. At MUI, more than 89 % of the synoptic weather patterns showed that the weather was clear and hot or that the atmosphere was stable. The variation in PM was associated with horizontal and vertical air dispersion. Poor horizontal air dispersion, with subsidence, caused an increase in PM at MUI. However, the updraft motion diluted the PM at SUI. The stepwise regression models show that the cloud index and surface air pressure determined the variation in PM2.5-10, while cloud index, wind speed and mixing height influenced the variation in PM2.5. In conclusion, a direct relationship between UHI effect and PM was not obvious.

Misty picture weather-watch and microbarograph project: Experiments 9412-14-18

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reed, J.W.; Church, H.W.; Huck, T.W.

1987-01-01

Special meteorological observations and predictions for MISTY PICTURE are described. Ground zero measurements of winds and temperatures were used to develop predictions for needed light winds during the night for deployment of the helium bag for the precursor experiment. This also entailed correlations with the White Sands network of automated surface observation stations as well as general circulation and upper air reports from the regional synoptic weather observing and reporting network. Pilot balloon observations of upper winds and Tethersonde observations were made during bag deployment to further document local circulation developments. During the test countdown, radiosonde balloon observations of uppermore » air temperatures and winds were made to allow prediction of atmospheric effects on airblast propagation that could break windows to nearly 200 km range from the MISTY PICTURE explosion yield. These data indicated that there would be no strong off-site propagations on shot day, but at shot time the weak convergence zone in the shot area disturbed the wind pattern and generated a northwestward sound duct. Some banded airblast focusing resulted that gave relatively high overpressures just south of the Admin Park, at the Observer's Area, and in San Antonio where a number of windows were claimed broken. Relatively weak blasts, between caustics or foci, were recorded by microbarographs at Admin Park, Stallion, and Socorro. Very weak and barely detectable waves were propagated eastward to Carrizozo where MINOR SCALE had broken windows in 1985, and to the southeast toward Tularosa and Alamogordo. Five microbarograph stations were also operated around the west side of a 200 km radius circle, to document airblast waves ducted and focused by relatively high temperatures and easterly monsoon winds near 50 km altitudes. 15 refs., 39 figs., 16 tabs.« less

Diagnosing Cloud Biases in the GFDL AM3 Model With Atmospheric Classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Stuart; Marchand, Roger; Ackerman, Thomas; Donner, Leo; Golaz, Jean-Christophe; Seman, Charles

2017-12-01

We define a set of 21 atmospheric states, or recurring weather patterns, for a region surrounding the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program's Southern Great Plains site using an iterative clustering technique. The states are defined using dynamic and thermodynamic variables from reanalysis, tested for statistical significance with cloud radar data from the Southern Great Plains site, and are determined every 6 h for 14 years, creating a time series of atmospheric state. The states represent the various stages of the progression of synoptic systems through the region (e.g., warm fronts, warm sectors, cold fronts, cold northerly advection, and high-pressure anticyclones) with a subset of states representing summertime conditions with varying degrees of convective activity. We use the states to classify output from the NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AM3 model to test the model's simulation of the frequency of occurrence of the states and of the cloud occurrence during each state. The model roughly simulates the frequency of occurrence of the states but exhibits systematic cloud occurrence biases. Comparison of observed and model-simulated International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project histograms of cloud top pressure and optical thickness shows that the model lacks high thin cloud under all conditions, but biases in thick cloud are state-dependent. Frontal conditions in the model do not produce enough thick cloud, while fair-weather conditions produce too much. We find that increasing the horizontal resolution of the model improves the representation of thick clouds under all conditions but has little effect on high thin clouds. However, increasing resolution also changes the distribution of states, causing an increase in total cloud occurrence bias.

Diagnosing Cloud Biases in the GFDL AM3 Model With Atmospheric Classification

DOE PAGES

Evans, Stuart; Marchand, Roger; Ackerman, Thomas; ...

2017-11-16

In this paper, we define a set of 21 atmospheric states, or recurring weather patterns, for a region surrounding the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program's Southern Great Plains site using an iterative clustering technique. The states are defined using dynamic and thermodynamic variables from reanalysis, tested for statistical significance with cloud radar data from the Southern Great Plains site, and are determined every 6 h for 14 years, creating a time series of atmospheric state. The states represent the various stages of the progression of synoptic systems through the region (e.g., warm fronts, warm sectors, cold fronts, cold northerly advection, andmore » high-pressure anticyclones) with a subset of states representing summertime conditions with varying degrees of convective activity. We use the states to classify output from the NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AM3 model to test the model's simulation of the frequency of occurrence of the states and of the cloud occurrence during each state. The model roughly simulates the frequency of occurrence of the states but exhibits systematic cloud occurrence biases. Comparison of observed and model-simulated International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project histograms of cloud top pressure and optical thickness shows that the model lacks high thin cloud under all conditions, but biases in thick cloud are state-dependent. Frontal conditions in the model do not produce enough thick cloud, while fair-weather conditions produce too much. Finally, we find that increasing the horizontal resolution of the model improves the representation of thick clouds under all conditions but has little effect on high thin clouds. However, increasing resolution also changes the distribution of states, causing an increase in total cloud occurrence bias.« less

Climatic and hydrologic influences on wading bird foraging patterns in Everglades National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, H.; Lall, U.; Engel, V.

2007-12-01

A goal of the Everglades National Park (ENP) restoration project is to ensure that the ecological health of the ENP improves as a direct result of management activities. Achieving hydrologic targets through the proper timing and amount of releases from control structures is a first step in the management process. Significant climate and weather variations in the region influence the ability to make releases and also determine the ecological outcomes. An assessment of the relative impact of climate variations and water releases to ENP in determining ecological outcomes is consequently a key to the evaluation of the success or failure of any restoration plan. Seasonal water depths in ENP depend on managed surface water releases from control structures and on direct rainfall. Here we link wading bird foraging patterns - a fundamental aspect of Everglades' ecology - to hydrologic management and climate variability in the National Park. Our objective is multifold. First, we relate the water levels at P33 and Shark Slough to the synoptic hydrologic conditions. Second, we develop a statistical model relating water levels at a station in central Shark Slough (P33) to wading birds foraging patterns throughout ENP. We attempt to apply a Hierarchical Bayesian scheme to a time series of wading bird to provide an uncertainty distribution of the population over specified time periods given hydrologic condition. Third, we develop a set of hydrologic index derived by recorded water level at P33 for a use of the statistical model of wading birds as an input. Our study will focus on great egret and white ibis that are major species among wading birds in the ENP. The great egret and white ibis prediction predicted by the model using the proposed predictors exhibits strong correlation with the observed streamflow, with an correlation 0.8.

Will climate change affect weather types associated with flooding in the Elbe river basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nissen, Katrin M.; Pardowitz, Tobias; Ulbrich, Uwe; Nied, Manuela

2013-04-01

This study investigates the effects of anthropogenic climate change on weather types associated with flooding in the Elbe river basin. The study is based on an ensemble of 3 simulations with the ECHAM5 MPIOM coupled model forced with historical and SRES A1B greenhouse gas concentrations. Relevant weather types, occuring in association with recent flood events, are identified in the ERA40 reanalysis data set. The weather types are classified with the SANDRA cluster algorithm. Distributions of tropospheric humidity content, 500 hPa geopotential height and 500 hPa temperature over Europe are taken as input parameters. 8 (out of 40) weather types are found to be associated with flooding events in the Elbe river basin. The majority of these (6) typically occur during winter, while 2 are warm season patterns. Downscaling reveals characteristic precipitation anomalies associated with the individual patterns. The 8 flood relevant weather types are then identified in the ECHAM5 simulations. The effect of climate change on these patterns is investigated by comparing the last 30 years of the previous century to the last 30 years of the 21st century. According to the model the frequency of most patterns will not change. 5 patterns may experience a statistically significant increase in the mean precipitation over the catchment area and 4 patterns an increase in extreme precipitation. Persistence may slightly decrease for 2 patterns and remain unchanged for the others. Overall, this indicates a moderate increase in the risk for Elbe river flooding, related to changes in the weather patterns, in the coming decades.

Relationship between fine particulate matter, weather condition and daily non-accidental mortality in Shanghai, China: A Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Fang, Xin; Fang, Bo; Wang, Chunfang; Xia, Tian; Bottai, Matteo; Fang, Fang; Cao, Yang

2017-01-01

There are concerns that the reported association of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) with mortality might be a mixture of PM2.5 and weather conditions. We evaluated the effects of extreme weather conditions and weather types on mortality as well as their interactions with PM2.5 concentrations in a time series study. Daily non-accidental deaths, individual demographic information, daily average PM2.5 concentrations and meteorological data between 2012 and 2014 were obtained from Shanghai, China. Days with extreme weather conditions were identified. Six synoptic weather types (SWTs) were generated. The generalized additive model was set up to link the mortality with PM2.5 and weather conditions. Parameter estimation was based on Bayesian methods using both the Jeffreys' prior and an informative normal prior in a sensitivity analysis. We estimate the percent increase in non-accidental mortality per 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration and constructed corresponding 95% credible interval (CrI). In total, 336,379 non-accidental deaths occurred during the study period. Average daily deaths were 307. The results indicated that per 10 μg/m3 increase in daily average PM2.5 concentration alone corresponded to 0.26-0.35% increase in daily non-accidental mortality in Shanghai. Statistically significant positive associations between PM2.5 and mortality were found for favorable SWTs when considering the interaction between PM2.5 and SWTs. The greatest effect was found in hot dry SWT (percent increase = 1.28, 95% CrI: 0.72, 1.83), followed by warm humid SWT (percent increase = 0.64, 95% CrI: 0.15, 1.13). The effect of PM2.5 on non-accidental mortality differed under specific extreme weather conditions and SWTs. Environmental policies and actions should take into account the interrelationship between the two hazardous exposures.

Relationship between fine particulate matter, weather condition and daily non-accidental mortality in Shanghai, China: A Bayesian approach

PubMed Central

Wang, Chunfang; Xia, Tian; Bottai, Matteo; Fang, Fang; Cao, Yang

2017-01-01

There are concerns that the reported association of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) with mortality might be a mixture of PM2.5 and weather conditions. We evaluated the effects of extreme weather conditions and weather types on mortality as well as their interactions with PM2.5 concentrations in a time series study. Daily non-accidental deaths, individual demographic information, daily average PM2.5 concentrations and meteorological data between 2012 and 2014 were obtained from Shanghai, China. Days with extreme weather conditions were identified. Six synoptic weather types (SWTs) were generated. The generalized additive model was set up to link the mortality with PM2.5 and weather conditions. Parameter estimation was based on Bayesian methods using both the Jeffreys’ prior and an informative normal prior in a sensitivity analysis. We estimate the percent increase in non-accidental mortality per 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration and constructed corresponding 95% credible interval (CrI). In total, 336,379 non-accidental deaths occurred during the study period. Average daily deaths were 307. The results indicated that per 10 μg/m3 increase in daily average PM2.5 concentration alone corresponded to 0.26–0.35% increase in daily non-accidental mortality in Shanghai. Statistically significant positive associations between PM2.5 and mortality were found for favorable SWTs when considering the interaction between PM2.5 and SWTs. The greatest effect was found in hot dry SWT (percent increase = 1.28, 95% CrI: 0.72, 1.83), followed by warm humid SWT (percent increase = 0.64, 95% CrI: 0.15, 1.13). The effect of PM2.5 on non-accidental mortality differed under specific extreme weather conditions and SWTs. Environmental policies and actions should take into account the interrelationship between the two hazardous exposures. PMID:29121092

Benefits of Sharing Information: Supermodel Ensemble and Applications in South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dias, P. L.

2006-05-01

A model intercomparison program involving a large number of academic and operational institutions has been implemented in South America since 2003, motivated by the SALLJEX Intercomparison Program in 2003 (a research program focused on the identification of the role of the Andes low level jet moisture transport from the Amazon to the Plata basin) and the WMO/THORPEX (www.wmo.int/thorpex) goals to improve predictability through the proper combination of numerical weather forecasts. This program also explores the potential predictability associated with the combination of a large number of possible scenarios in the time scale of a few days to up to 15 days. Five academic institutions and five operational forecasting centers in several countries in South America, 1 academic institution in the USA, and the main global forecasting centers (NCEP, UKMO, ECMWF) agreed to provide numerical products based on operational and experimental models. The metric for model validation is concentrated on the fit of the forecast to surface observations. Meteorological data from airports, synoptic stations operated by national weather services, automatic data platforms maintained by different institutions, the PIRATA buoys etc are all collected through LDM/NCAR or direct transmission. Approximately 40 models outputs are available on a daily basis, twice a day. A simple procedure based on data assimilation principles was quite successful in combining the available forecasts in order to produce temperature, dew point, wind, pressure and precipitation forecasts at station points in S. America. The procedure is based on removing each model bias at the observational point and a weighted average based on the mean square error of the forecasts. The base period for estimating the bias and mean square error is of the order of 15 to 30 days. Products of the intercomparison model program and the optimal statistical combination of the available forecasts are public and available in real time (www.master.iag.usp.br/). Monitoring of the use of the products reveal a growing trend in the last year (reaching about 10.000 accesses per day in recent months). The intercomparison program provides a rich data set for educational products (real time use in Synoptic Meteorology and Numerical Weather Forecasting lectures), operational weather forecasts in national or regional weather centers and for research purposes. During the first phase of the program it was difficult to convince potential participants to share the information in the public homepage. However, as the system evolved, more and more institutions became associated with the program. The general opinion of the participants is that the system provides an unified metric for evaluation, a forum for discussion of the physical origin of the model forecast differences and therefore improvement of the quality of the numerical guidance.

Dynamic Evaluation of Two Decades of CMAQ Simulations ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This presentation focuses on the dynamic evaluation of the CMAQ model over the continental United States using multi-decadal simulations for the period from 1990 to 2010 to examine how well the changes in observed ozone air quality induced by variations in meteorology and/or emissions are simulated by the model. We applied spectral decomposition of the ozone time-series using the KZ filter to assess the variations in the strengths of synoptic (weather-induced variations) and baseline (long-term variation) forcings, embedded in the simulated and observed concentrations. The results reveal that CMAQ captured the year-to-year variability (more so in the later years than the earlier years) and the synoptic forcing in accordance with what the observations are showing. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

Assessing Climate Change Within Lake Champlain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leibensperger, E. M.; Pierce, W.; Mihuc, T.; Myers, L.

2016-12-01

Lake Champlain is experiencing environmental stresses that have caused statistically significant biological, chemical, and physical trends. Such trends have already impacted management strategies within the Lake Champlain basin, which lies within the states of New York and Vermont and province of Quebec. A long-term monitoring program initiated in 1992 has revealed warming of upwards of 0.7°C per decade within certain regions of the lake; much faster than observed local atmospheric warming. Here we analyze the observed lake warming in the context of atmospheric variability and assess its uncertainty given monitoring frequency (biweekly to monthly), variable seasonal and hourly observation timing, and synoptic variability of lake dynamics. To address these issues, we use observations from a June-October 2016 deployment of a data buoy on Lake Champlain containing a 1-meter spaced thermistor chain and surface weather station. These new observations, and reanalysis of intensive monitoring during a campaign in 1993, indicate that synoptic variability of lake thermal structure lowers confidence in trends derived from infrequent observations. However, principal component analysis of lake thermal structure reveals two primary modes of variability that are predictable from atmospheric conditions, presenting an opportunity to improve interpretation of existing and future observations.

Characteristics of extreme dust events observed over two urban areas in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bidokhti, Abbas-Ali A.; Gharaylou, Maryam; Pegahfar, Nafiseh; Sabetghadam, Samaneh; Rezazadeh, Maryam

2016-03-01

Determination of dust loading in the atmosphere is important not only from the public health point of view, but also for regional climate changes. The present study focuses on the characteristics of two major dust events for two urban areas in Iran, Kermanshah and Tehran, over the period of 4 years from 2006 to 2009. To detect extreme dust outbreaks, various datasets including synoptic data, dust concentration, reanalysis data and numerical results of WRF and HYSPLIT models were used. The weather maps demonstrate that for these events dusts are mainly generated when wind velocity is high and humidity is low in the lower troposphere and the region is under the influence of a thermal low. The event lasts until the atmospheric stability prevails and the surface wind speed weakens. The thermal low nature of the synoptic conditions of these major events is also responsible for deep boundary layer development with its thermals affecting the vertical dust flux over the region. Trajectory studies show that the dust events originated from deserts in Iraq and Syria and transported towards Iran. The main distinction between the two types of mobilizations seems to affect the dust concentrations in the Tehran urban area.

Seismic Forecasting of Solar Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, Douglas; Lindsey, Charles

2001-01-01

We have developed and improved helioseismic imaging techniques of the far-side of the Sun as part of a synoptic monitor of solar activity. In collaboration with the MIDI team at Stanford University we are routinely applying our analysis to images within 24 hours of their acquisition by SOHO. For the first time, real-time seismic maps of large active regions on the Sun's far surface are publicly available. The synoptic images show examples of active regions persisting for one or more solar rotations, as well as those initially detected forming on the solar far side. Until recently, imaging the far surface of the Sun has been essentially blind to active regions more than about 50 degrees from the antipode of disk center. In a paper recently accepted for publication, we have demonstrated how acoustic travel-time perturbations may be mapped over the entire hemisphere of the Sun facing away from the Earth, including the polar regions. In addition to offering significant improvements to ongoing space weather forecasting efforts, the procedure offers the possibility of local seismic monitoring of both the temporal and spatial variations in the acoustic properties of the Sun over the entire far surface.

Vandenberg Air Force Base Pressure Gradient Wind Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shafer, Jaclyn A.

2013-01-01

Warning category winds can adversely impact day-to-day space lift operations at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) in California. NASA's Launch Services Program and other programs at VAFB use wind forecasts issued by the 30 Operational Support Squadron Weather Flight (30 OSSWF) to determine if they need to limit activities or protect property such as a launch vehicle. The 30 OSSWF tasked the AMU to develop an automated Excel graphical user interface that includes pressure gradient thresholds between specific observing stations under different synoptic regimes to aid forecasters when issuing wind warnings. This required the AMU to determine if relationships between the variables existed.

The Application of Hilbert-Huang Transforms to Meteorological Datasets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, Dean G.

2003-01-01

Recently a new spectral technique as been developed for the analysis of aperiodic and nonlinear signals - the Hilbert-Huang transform. This paper shows how these transforms can be used to discover synoptic and climatic features: For sea level data, the transforms capture the oceanic tides as well as large, aperiodic river outflows. In the case of solar radiation, we observe variations in the diurnal and seasonal cycles. Finally, from barographic data, the Hilbert-Huang transform reveals the passage of extratropical cyclones, fronts, and troughs. Thus, this technique can flag significant weather events such its a flood or the passage of a squall line.

Integrating Windblown Dust Forecasts with Public Safety and Health Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sprigg, W. A.

2014-12-01

Experiments in real-time prediction of desert dust emissions and downstream plume concentrations (~ 3.5 km near-surface spatial resolution) succeed to the point of challenging public safety and public health services to beta test a dust storm warning and advisory system in lowering risks of highway and airline accidents and illnesses such as asthma and valley fever. Key beta test components are: high-resolution models of dust emission, entrainment and diffusion, integrated with synoptic weather observations and forecasts; satellite-based detection and monitoring of soil properties on the ground and elevated above; high space and time resolution for health surveillance and transportation advisories.

Turbulence sources in mountain terrain: results from MATERHORN program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Sabatino, Silvana; Leo, Laura S.; Fernando, Harindra J. S.; Pardyjak, Eric R.; Hocut, Chris M.

2016-04-01

Improving high-resolution numerical weather prediction in complex terrain is essential for the many applications involving mountain weather. It is commonly recognized that high intensity weather phenomena near mountains are a safety hazard to aircrafts and unmanned aerial vehicles, but the prediction of highly variable weather is often unsatisfactory due to inadequacy of resolution or lack of the correct dynamics in the model. Improving mountain weather forecasts has been the goal of the interdisciplinary Mountain Terrain Atmospheric Modeling and Observations (MATERHORN) program (2011-2016). In this paper, we will report some of the findings focusing on several mechanisms of generating turbulence in near surface flows in the vicinity of an isolated mountain. Specifically, we will discuss nocturnal flows under low synoptic forcing. It has been demonstrated that such calm conditions are hard to predict in typical weather predictions models where forcing is dominated by local features that are poorly included in numerical models. It is found that downslope flows in calm and clear nights develop rapidly after sunset and usually persists for few hours. Owing to multiscale flow interactions, slope flows appear to be intermittent and disturbed, with a tendency to decay through the night yet periodically and unexpectedly generated. One of the interesting feature herein is the presence of oscillations that can be associated to different types of waves (e.g. internal and trapping waves) which may break to produce extra mixing. Pulsations of katabatic flow at critical internal-wave frequency, flow intrusions arriving from different topographies and shear layers of flow fanning out from the gaps all contribute to the weakly or intermittently turbulent state. Understanding of low frequency contributions to the total kinetic energy represent a step forward into modelling sub-grid effects in numerical models used for aviation applications.

Climate change and viticulture in Mediterranean climates: the complex response of socio-ecosystems. A comparative case study from France and Australia (1955-2040)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lereboullet, A.-L.; Beltrando, G.; Bardsley, D. K.

2012-04-01

The wine industry is very sensitive to extreme weather events, especially to temperatures above 35°C and drought. In a context of global climate change, Mediterranean climate regions are predicted to experience higher variability in rainfall and temperatures and an increased occurrence of extreme weather events. Some viticultural systems could be particularly at risk in those regions, considering their marginal position in the growth climatic range of Vitis vinifera, the long commercial lifespan of a vineyard, the high added-value of wine and the volatile nature of global markets. The wine industry, like other agricultural systems, is inserted in complex networks of climatic and non-climatic (other physical, economical, social and legislative) components, with constant feedbacks. We use a socio-ecosystem approach to analyse the adaptation of two Mediterranean viticultural systems to recent and future increase of extreme weather events. The present analysis focuses on two wine regions with a hot-summer Mediterranean climate (CSb type in the Köppen classification): Côtes-du-Roussillon in southern France and McLaren Vale in southern Australia. Using climate data from two synoptic weather stations, Perpignan (France) and Adelaide (Australia), with time series running from 1955 to 2010, we highlight changes in rainfall patterns and an increase in the number of days with Tx >35°c since the last three decades in both regions. Climate models (DRIAS project data for France and CSIRO Mk3.5 for Australia) project similar trends in the future. To date, very few projects have focused on an international comparison of the adaptive capacity of viticultural systems to climate change with a holistic approach. Here, the analysis of climate data was complemented by twenty in-depth semi-structured interviews with key actors of the two regional wine industries, in order to analyse adaptation strategies put in place regarding recent climate evolution. This mixed-methods approach allows for a comprehensive assessment of adaptation capacity of the two viticultural systems to future climate change. The strategies of grape growers and wine producers focus on maintaining optimal yields and a constant wine style adapted to markets in a variable and uncertain climate. Their implementation and efficiency depend strongly on non-climatic factors. Thus, adaptation capacity to recent and future climate change depends strongly on adaptation to other non-climatic changes.

Effects of sudden air pressure changes on hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases in Prague, 1994-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plavcová, Eva; Kyselý, Jan

2014-08-01

Sudden weather changes have long been thought to be associated with negative impacts on human health, but relatively few studies have attempted to quantify these relationships. We use large 6-h changes in atmospheric pressure as a proxy for sudden weather changes and evaluate their association with hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Winter and summer seasons and positive and negative pressure changes are analysed separately, using data for the city of Prague (population 1.2 million) over a 16-year period (1994-2009). We found that sudden pressure drops in winter are associated with significant rise in hospital admissions. Increased CVD morbidity was observed neither for pressure drops in summer nor pressure increases in any season. Analysis of synoptic weather maps shows that large pressure drops in winter are associated with strong zonal flow and rapidly moving low-pressure systems with centres over northern Europe and atmospheric fronts affecting western and central Europe. Analysis of links between passages of strong atmospheric fronts and hospital admissions, however, shows that the links disappear if weather changes are characterised by frontal passages. Sudden pressure drops in winter are associated also with significant excess CVD mortality. As climate models project strengthening of zonal circulation in winter and increased frequency of windstorms, the negative effects of such weather phenomena and their possible changes in a warmer climate of the twenty-first century need to be better understood, particularly as their importance in inducing excess morbidity and mortality in winter may increase compared to cold spells.

Weather observations on Whistler Mountain during five storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thériault, Julie M.; Rasmussen, Kristen L.; Fisico, Teresa; Stewart, Ronald E.; Joe, Paul; Gultepe, Ismail; Clément, Marilys; Isaac, George A.

2014-01-01

A greater understanding of precipitation formation processes over complex terrain near the west coast of British Colombia will contribute to many relevant applications, such as climate studies, local hydrology, transportation, and winter sport competition. The phase of precipitation is difficult to determine because of the warm and moist weather conditions experienced during the wintertime in coastal mountain ranges. The goal of this study is to investigate the wide range of meteorological conditions that generated precipitation on Whistler Mountain from 4-12 March 2010 during the SNOW-V10 field campaign. During this time period, five different storms were documented in detail and were associated with noticeably different meteorological conditions in the vicinity of Whistler Mountain. New measurement techniques, along with the SNOW-V10 instrumentation, were used to obtain in situ observations during precipitation events along the Whistler mountainside. The results demonstrate a high variability of weather conditions ranging from the synoptic-scale to the macro-scale. These weather events were associated with a variation of precipitation along the mountainside, such as events associated with snow, snow pellets, and rain. Only two events associated with a rain-snow transition along the mountainside were observed, even though above-freezing temperatures along the mountainside were recorded 90 % of the time. On a smaller scale, these events were also associated with a high variability of snowflake types that were observed simultaneously near the top of Whistler Mountain. Overall, these detailed observations demonstrate the importance of understanding small-scale processes to improve observational techniques, short-term weather prediction, and longer-term climate projections over mountainous regions.

Assessing fire risk in Portugal during the summer fire season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dacamara, C. C.; Pereira, M. G.; Trigo, R. M.

2009-04-01

Since 1998, Instituto de Meteorologia, the Portuguese Weather Service has relied on the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System (van Wagner, 1987) to produce daily forecasts of fire risk. The FWI System consists of six components that account for the effects of fuel moisture and wind on fire behavior. The first three components, i.e. the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC), the Duff Moisture Code (DMC) and the Drought Code (DC) respectively rate the average moisture content of surface litter, decomposing litter, and organic (humus) layers of the soil. Wind effects are then added to FFMC leading to the Initial Spread Index (ISI) that rates fire spread. The remaining two fuel moisture codes (DMC and DC) are in turn combined to produce the Buildup Index (BUI) that is a rating of the total amount of fuel available for combustion. BUI is finally combined with ISI to produce the Fire Weather Index (FWI) that represents the rate of fire intensity. Classes of fire danger and levels of preparedness are commonly defined on an empirical way for a given region by calibrating the FWI System against wildfire activity as defined by the recorded number of events and by the observed burned area over a given period of time (Bovio and Camia, 1998). It is also a well established fact that distributions of burned areas are heavily skewed to the right and tend to follow distributions of the exponential-type (Cumming, 2001). Based on the described context, a new procedure is presented for calibrating the FWI System during the summer fire season in Portugal. Two datasets were used covering a 28-year period (1980-2007); i) the official Portuguese wildfire database which contains detailed information on fire events occurred in the 18 districts of Continental Portugal and ii) daily values of the six components of the FWI System as derived from reanalyses (Uppala et al., 2005) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Calibration of the FWI System is then performed in two steps; 1) a truncated Weibull distribution is fitted to the sample of burned areas and 2) the quality of the fitted statistical model is improved by incorporating components of the FWI System as covariates. Obtained model allows estimating on a daily basis the probability of occurrence of fires larger than a given threshold as well as producing maps of fire risk. Results as obtained from a prototype currently being developed will be presented and discussed. In particular, it will be shown that results provide additional evidence of the known fact that the extent of burned area in Portugal is controlled by two main atmospheric factors (Pereira et al. 2005): i) a long-term control related to the regime of temperature and precipitation in spring and ii) a short-term control exerted by the occurrence of very intense dry spells in days of extreme synoptic situations. Bovio, G., and A. Camia. 1998. An analysis of large forest fire danger conditions in Europe. In Proc. 3rd Int. Conf. on Forest Fire Research & 14th Conf. on Fire and Forest Meteorology, Viegas, D.X. (Ed.), Luso, 16-20 Nov., ADAI, 975-994. Cumming, S.G., 2001. Parametric models of the fire size distribution. Can J. For. Res., 31, 1297-1303. Pereira, M.G., Trigo, R.M., DaCamara, C.C., Pereira, J.M.C. and Leite, S.M., 2005. Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal. Agr. and For. Meteorol., 129 (1-2), 11-25. Uppala, S.M. et al., 2005: The ERA-40 re-analysis. Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 2961-3012. Van Wagner, C.E., 1987. Development and structure of the Canadian forest fire weather index system. Canadian Forestry Service, Forest Technical Report 35, Ottawa, 37 pp.

A Regional-Scale Evaluation on Environmental Stability Conditions for Convective Rain under Climate Change from Super-High-Resolution GCM Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takemi, T.; Nomura, S.; Oku, Y.; Ishikawa, H.

2011-12-01

Understanding and forecasting of convective rain due to intense thunderstorms, which develop under conditions both with and without significant synoptic-scale and/or mesoscale forcings, are critical in dealing with disaster prevention/mitigation and developing urban planning appropriate for disaster management. Thunderstorms rapidly develop even during the daytimes of fair weather conditions without any external forcings, and sometimes become strong enough to induce local-scale meteorological disasters such as torrential rain, flush flooding, high winds, and tornadoes/gusts. With the growing interests in climate change, future changes in the behavior of such convectively generated extreme events have gained scientific and societal interests. This study conducted the regional-scale evaluations on the environmental stability conditions for convective rain that develops under synoptically undisturbed, summertime conditions by using the outputs of super-high-resolution AGCM simulations, at a 20-km resolution, for the present, the near-future, and the future climates under global warming with IPCC A1B emission scenario. The GCM, MRI-AGCM3.2S, was developed by Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency under the KAKUSHIN program funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan. The climate simulation outputs that were used in this study corresponded to three 25-year periods: 1980-2004 for the present climate; 2020-2044 for the near-future climate; and 2075-2099 for the future climate. The Kanto Plain that includes the Tokyo metropolitan area was chosen as the study area, since the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the largest metropolises in the world and is vulnerable to extreme weather events. Therefore, one of the purposes of this study was to examine how regional-scale evaluations are performed from the super-high-resolution GCM outputs. After verifying the usefulness of the GCM present-climate outputs with observations and operational mesoscale analyses, we examined, as another purpose of this study, the future changes in the environmental stability for convective rain. To diagnose the environmental conditions, some of the commonly used stability parameters and indices were examined. In the future climates, temperature lapse rate decreased in the lower troposphere, while water vapor mixing ratio increased throughout the deep troposphere. The changes in the temperature and moisture profiles resulted in the increase in both precipitable water vapor and convective available potential energy. These projected changes will be enhanced with the future period. Furthermore, the statistical analyses for the differences of the stability parameters between no-rain and rain days under the synoptically undisturbed condition in each simulated climate period indicated that the environmental conditions in terms of the stability parameters that distinguish no-rain and rain events are basically unchanged between the present and the future climates. This result suggests that the environmental characteristics favorable for afternoon rain events in the synoptically undisturbed environments will not change under global warming.

Synoptic Patterns Related to Tropical Cyclone Recurvature

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-03-01

STY :Yfarge. Dominant and secondary contour patterns (Fig. 3.2) are identified and the angular difference (Table 5) between the pattern and the best...DATA l\\LVL/4/ DATA VRU/’ 1’/,VRV/𔃼’/ c DATA C/.0436610743/ ,DD/ 114.5915590262/ 1\\AYIELIST/~GRID/ 0:\\ VST ,:\\EST,l\\STH,l\\l\\TH c EQUIV ALE:\\CE...READ (5,:\\GRID) \\VRITE (6,:\\GRID) l\\1 = i\\\\ VST + l\\EST + 1 :\\J = 1\\STH + 1\\NTH + 1 IuCOYIP=20 IVCOl’viP= 20 0:RECU=O 1’\\RECV=O C** READ IN NO

A TRAJECTORY-CLUSTERING CORRELATION METHODOLOGY FOR EXAMINING THE LONG-RANGE TRANSPORT OF AIR POLLUTANTS. (R825260)

EPA Science Inventory

We present a robust methodology for examining the relationship between synoptic-scale atmospheric transport patterns and pollutant concentration levels observed at a site. Our approach entails calculating a large number of back-trajectories from the observational site over a long...

Relationship between air mass type and emergency department visits for migraine headache across the Triangle region of North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elcik, Christopher; Fuhrmann, Christopher M.; Mercer, Andrew E.; Davis, Robert E.

2017-12-01

An estimated 240 million people worldwide suffer from migraines. Because migraines are often debilitating, understanding the mechanisms that trigger them is crucial for effective prevention and treatment. Synoptic air mass types and emergency department (ED) visits for migraine headaches were examined over a 7-year period within a major metropolitan area of North Carolina to identify potential relationships between large-scale meteorological conditions and the incidence of migraine headaches. Barometric pressure changes associated with transitional air masses, or changing weather patterns, were also analyzed for potential relationships. Bootstrapping analysis revealed that tropical air masses (moist and dry) resulted in the greatest number of migraine ED visits over the study period, whereas polar air masses led to fewer. Moist polar air masses in particular were found to correspond with the fewest number of migraine ED visits. On transitional air mass days, the number of migraine ED visits fell between those of tropical air mass days and polar air mass days. Transitional days characterized by pressure increases exhibited a greater number of migraine ED visits than days characterized by pressure decreases. However, no relationship was found between migraine ED visits and the magnitude of barometric pressure changes associated with transitional air masses.

Characterizing ocean gyres formation within a bay using vorticity and HF radar measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragnoli, E.; Donncha, F. O.; Hartnett, M.

2012-04-01

In situations in which wind forcing plays a dominant role in surface currents it becomes important to understand its correlation with parameters that can be used to characterise circulation patterns within a bay. These datasets can then be used in the detection and characterisation of ocean gyres. A network of high frequency radars (NUIG CODAR) is deployed within Galway Bay, on the West Coast of Ireland as a backbone system within an integrated coastal ocean observation system. This system provides real-time synoptic measurements of both ocean surface currents and surface waves across the entire bay. In this work, vorticity is identified as a defining quantity for the characterisation of circulating flow patterns (in particular for the detection of ocean gyres) and it is directly calculated from the measured velocity vectors of NUIG CODAR. A correlation study with wind and tide measurements is then undertaken in order to investigate the dependencies between vorticity and those parameters. A comprehensive NUIG CODAR, weather station and tide gauge monitoring program was conducted over a 30 days period and the data collected analysed for the correlation with the computed vorticity. Tidal information from the FES2004 Global tidal atlas defined surface elevations at the open sea boundaries in the west and in the south. Data from a tide gauge deployed within the bay, which provided real-time tidal data at 6 minute intervals, was used to fine-tune model elevations. A weather station located at National University of Ireland, Galway provided measured wind data for the model. The NUIG CODAR coastal observation system detects strong, non-persistent, gyre formation within Galway Bay. During periods of relatively large tidal ranges (order 4m) and light wind conditions well defined, cyclonic circulation is developed within the bay. The correlation analysis shows that the gyres tend to form soon after high tide and last until the next low water; the gyre structure is transported about the bay with the bulk advection of tidal motion. This is the first time this feature has been observed and the significance of its consequences on water circulation will be the subject of future research.

The influence of scales of atmospheric motion on air pollution over Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, Ana; Trigo, Ricardo; Mendes, Manuel; Jerez, Sonia; Gouveia, Célia Marina

2014-05-01

Air pollution is determined by the combination of different factors, namely, emissions, physical constrains, meteorology and chemical processes [1,2,3]. The relative importance of such factors is influenced by their interaction on diverse scales of atmospheric motion. Each scale depicts different meteorological conditions, which, when combined with the different air pollution sources and photochemistry, result in varying ambient concentrations [2]. Identifying the dominant scales of atmospheric motion over a given airshed can be of great importance for many applications such as air pollution and pollen dispersion or wind energy management [2]. Portugal has been affected by numerous air pollution episodes during the last decade. These episodes are often related to peak emissions from local industry or transport, but can also be associated to regional transport from other urban areas or to exceptional emission events, such as forest fires. This research aims to identify the scales of atmospheric motion which contribute to an increase of air pollution. A method is proposed for differentiating between the scales of atmospheric motion that can be applied on a daily basis from data collected at several wind-measuring sites in a given airshed and to reanalysis datasets. The method is based on the daily mean wind recirculation and the mean and standard deviation between sites. The determination of the thresholds between scales is performed empirically following the approach of Levy et al. [2] and also through a automatic statistical approach computed taking into account the tails of the distributions (e.g. 95% and 99% percentile) of the different wind samples. A comparison is made with two objective approaches: 1) daily synoptic classification for the same period over the region [4] and 2) a 3-D backward trajectory approach [5,6] for specific episodes. Furthermore, the outcomes are expected to support the Portuguese authorities on the implementation of strategies for a sustainable management of environmental risks. [1] Demuzere, M., Trigo, R.M., Vila-Guerau de Arellano, van Lipzig, N.P.M., 2009. The impact of weather and atmospheric circulation on O3 and PM10 levels at a rural mid-latitude site. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 2695-2714. [2] Levy, I., Dayan, U., Mahrer, Y., 2009. Differing atmospheric scales of motion and their impact on air pollutants. Int. J. Climatol. [3] Pearce, J., Beringer, J., Nicholls, N., Hyndman, R.J., Uotila, P., Tapper, N.J., 2011. Investigating the influence of synoptic-scale meteorology on air quality using self-organizing maps and generalized additive modeling. Atmospheric Environment, 45, 1, 128 - 136, doi 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.09.032. [4 Trigo, R.M., DaCamara, C.C., 2000. Circulation Weather Types and their impact on the precipitation regime in Portugal. Int. J. Climat., 20, 1559-1581. [5] Carvalho, A., Monteiro, A., Ribeiro, I., Tchepel, O., Miranda, A.I., Borrego, C., Saavedra, S., Souto, J.A., Casares, J.J., 2010. High ozone levels in the Northeast of Portugal: analysis and characterization. Atmospheric Environment, 44, 1020 - 1031. [6] Saavedra, S., Rodríguez, A., Taboada, J.J., Souto, J.A., Casares, J.J., 2012. Synoptic patterns and air mass transport during ozone episodes in northwestern Iberia. Sci Total Environ., 441, 97-110. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.09.014.

First Use of Synoptic Vector Magnetograms for Global Nonlinear, Force-Free Coronal Magnetic Field Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tadesse, T.; Wiegelmann, T.; Gosain, S.; MacNeice, P.; Pevtsov, A. A.

2014-01-01

Context. The magnetic field permeating the solar atmosphere is generally thought to provide the energy for much of the activity seen in the solar corona, such as flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), etc. To overcome the unavailability of coronal magnetic field measurements, photospheric magnetic field vector data can be used to reconstruct the coronal field. Currently, there are several modelling techniques being used to calculate three-dimensional field lines into the solar atmosphere. Aims. For the first time, synoptic maps of a photospheric-vector magnetic field synthesized from the vector spectromagnetograph (VSM) on Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) are used to model the coronal magnetic field and estimate free magnetic energy in the global scale. The free energy (i.e., the energy in excess of the potential field energy) is one of the main indicators used in space weather forecasts to predict the eruptivity of active regions. Methods. We solve the nonlinear force-free field equations using an optimization principle in spherical geometry. The resulting threedimensional magnetic fields are used to estimate the magnetic free energy content E(sub free) = E(sub nlfff) - E(sub pot), which is the difference of the magnetic energies between the nonpotential field and the potential field in the global solar corona. For comparison, we overlay the extrapolated magnetic field lines with the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations by the atmospheric imaging assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Results. For a single Carrington rotation 2121, we find that the global nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) magnetic energy density is 10.3% higher than the potential one. Most of this free energy is located in active regions.

Status and Preliminary Evaluation for Chinese Re-Analysis Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

bin, zhao; chunxiang, shi; tianbao, zhao; dong, si; jingwei, liu

2016-04-01

Based on operational T639L60 spectral model, combined with Hybird_GSI assimilation system by using meteorological observations including radiosondes, buoyes, satellites el al., a set of Chinese Re-Analysis (CRA) datasets is developing by Chinese National Meteorological Information Center (NMIC) of Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA). The datasets are run at 30km (0.28°latitude / longitude) resolution which holds higher resolution than most of the existing reanalysis dataset. The reanalysis is done in an effort to enhance the accuracy of historical synoptic analysis and aid to find out detailed investigation of various weather and climate systems. The current status of reanalysis is in a stage of preliminary experimental analysis. One-year forecast data during Jun 2013 and May 2014 has been simulated and used in synoptic and climate evaluation. We first examine the model prediction ability with the new assimilation system, and find out that it represents significant improvement in Northern and Southern hemisphere, due to addition of new satellite data, compared with operational T639L60 model, the effect of upper-level prediction is improved obviously and overall prediction stability is enhanced. In climatological analysis, compared with ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR and NCEP/DOE reanalyses, the results show that surface temperature simulates a bit lower in land and higher over ocean, 850-hPa specific humidity reflects weakened anomaly and the zonal wind value anomaly is focus on equatorial tropics. Meanwhile, the reanalysis dataset shows good ability for various climate index, such as subtropical high index, ESMI (East-Asia subtropical Summer Monsoon Index) et al., especially for the Indian and western North Pacific monsoon index. Latter we will further improve the assimilation system and dynamical simulating performance, and obtain 40-years (1979-2018) reanalysis datasets. It will provide a more comprehensive analysis for synoptic and climate diagnosis.

Deep Learning for Extreme Weather Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabhat, M.; Racah, E.; Biard, J.; Liu, Y.; Mudigonda, M.; Kashinath, K.; Beckham, C.; Maharaj, T.; Kahou, S.; Pal, C.; O'Brien, T. A.; Wehner, M. F.; Kunkel, K.; Collins, W. D.

2017-12-01

We will present our latest results from the application of Deep Learning methods for detecting, localizing and segmenting extreme weather patterns in climate data. We have successfully applied supervised convolutional architectures for the binary classification tasks of detecting tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers in centered, cropped patches. We have subsequently extended our architecture to a semi-supervised formulation, which is capable of learning a unified representation of multiple weather patterns, predicting bounding boxes and object categories, and has the capability to detect novel patterns (w/ few, or no labels). We will briefly present our efforts in scaling the semi-supervised architecture to 9600 nodes of the Cori supercomputer, obtaining 15PF performance. Time permitting, we will highlight our efforts in pixel-level segmentation of weather patterns.

Comparison of landslide forecasting services in Piedmont (Italy) and Norway, illustrated by events in late spring 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devoli, Graziella; Tiranti, Davide; Cremonini, Roberto; Sund, Monica; Boje, Søren

2018-05-01

Only few countries operate systematically national and regional forecasting services for rainfall-induced landslides (i.e., debris flows, debris avalanches and shallow slides), among them Norway and Italy. In Norway, the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) operates a landslide forecasting service at national level. In Italy, the Regional Agency for Environmental Protection, ARPA Piemonte, is responsible for issuing landslide warnings for the Piedmont region, located in northwestern Italy. A daily hazard assessment is performed, describing both expected awareness level and type of landslide hazard for a selected warning region. Both services provide regular landslide hazard assessments based on a combination of quantitative thresholds and daily rainfall forecasts together with qualitative expert analysis. Daily warning reports are published at http://www.arpa.piemonte.gov.it/rischinaturali and http://www.varsom.no, last access: 7 May 2018. In spring 2013, ARPA Piemonte and the NVE issued warnings for hydro-meteorological hazards due to the arrival of a deep and large low-pressure system, called herein Vb cyclone. This kind of weather system is known to produce the largest floods in Europe. Less known is that this weather pattern can trigger landslides as well. In this study, we present the experiences of NVE and ARPA Piemonte in the late spring of 2013. The Vb cyclone influenced weather throughout Europe over a long period, from the end of April until the beginning of June 2013. However, major affects were observed in the first half part of this period in Piedmont, while in Norway, major damage was reported from 15 May to 2 June 2013. Floods and landslides significantly damaged roads, railways, buildings and other infrastructure in both countries. This case study shows that large synoptic pattern can produce different natural hazards in different parts of Europe, from sandstorms at low latitudes, to flood and landslides when the system moves across the mountain regions. These secondary effects were effectively forecasted by the two landslide warning services, operating in different parts of Europe. The landslide risks were also properly communicated to the public some days in advance. This analysis has allowed the establishment of fruitful international collaboration between ARPA Piemonte and NVE and the future exchange of experiences, procedures and methods relating to similar events.

Exploring Model Error through Post-processing and an Ensemble Kalman Filter on Fire Weather Days

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erickson, Michael J.

The proliferation of coupling atmospheric ensemble data to models in other related fields requires a priori knowledge of atmospheric ensemble biases specific to the desired application. In that spirit, this dissertation focuses on elucidating atmospheric ensemble model bias and error through a variety of different methods specific to fire weather days (FWDs) over the Northeast United States (NEUS). Other than a handful of studies that use models to predict fire indices for single fire seasons (Molders 2008, Simpson et al. 2014), an extensive exploration of model performance specific to FWDs has not been attempted. Two unique definitions for FWDs are proposed; one that uses pre-existing fire indices (FWD1) and another from a new statistical fire weather index (FWD2) relating fire occurrence and near-surface meteorological observations. Ensemble model verification reveals FWDs to have warmer (> 1 K), moister (~ 0.4 g kg-1) and less windy (~ 1 m s-1) biases than the climatological average for both FWD1 and FWD2. These biases are not restricted to the near surface but exist through the entirety of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Furthermore, post-processing methods are more effective when previous FWDs are incorporated into the statistical training, suggesting that model bias could be related to the synoptic flow pattern. An Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is used to explore the effectiveness of data assimilation during a period of extensive FWDs in April 2012. Model biases develop rapidly on FWDs, consistent with the FWD1 and FWD2 verification. However, the EnKF is effective at removing most biases for temperature, wind speed and specific humidity. Potential sources of error in the parameterized physics of the PBL are explored by rerunning the EnKF with simultaneous state and parameter estimation (SSPE) for two relevant parameters within the ACM2 PBL scheme. SSPE helps to reduce the cool temperature bias near the surface on FWDs, with the variability in parameter estimates exhibiting some relationship to model bias for temperature. This suggests the potential for structural model error within the ACM2 PBL scheme and could lead toward the future development of improved PBL parameterizations.

Schneefernerhaus as a mountain research station for clouds and turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Risius, S.; Xu, H.; Di Lorenzo, F.; Xi, H.; Siebert, H.; Shaw, R. A.; Bodenschatz, E.

2015-08-01

Cloud measurements are usually carried out with airborne campaigns, which are expensive and are limited by temporal duration and weather conditions. Ground-based measurements at high-altitude research stations therefore play a complementary role in cloud study. Using the meteorological data (wind speed, direction, temperature, humidity, visibility, etc.) collected by the German Weather Service (DWD) from 2000 to 2012 and turbulence measurements recorded by multiple ultrasonic sensors (sampled at 10 Hz) in 2010, we show that the Umweltforschungsstation Schneefernerhaus (UFS) located just below the peak of Zugspitze in the German Alps, at a height of 2650 m, is a well-suited station for cloud-turbulence research. The wind at UFS is dominantly in the east-west direction and nearly horizontal. During the summertime (July and August) the UFS is immersed in warm clouds about 25 % of the time. The clouds are either from convection originating in the valley in the east, or associated with synoptic-scale weather systems typically advected from the west. Air turbulence, as measured from the second- and third-order velocity structure functions that exhibit well-developed inertial ranges, possesses Taylor microscale Reynolds numbers up to 104, with the most probable value at ~ 3000. In spite of the complex topography, the turbulence appears to be nearly as isotropic as many laboratory flows when evaluated on the "Lumley triangle".

Evaluating Changes in Extreme Weather During the North American Monsoon in the Southwest U.S. Using High Resolution, Convective-Permitting Regional Atmospheric Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, C. L.; Chang, H. I.; Luong, T. M.; Lahmers, T.; Jares, M.; Mazon, J.; Carrillo, C. M.; Adams, D. K.

2015-12-01

The North American monsoon (NAM) is the principal driver of summer severe weather in the Southwest U.S. Monsoon convection typically initiates during daytime over the mountains and may organize into mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Most monsoon-related severe weather occurs in association with organized convection, including microbursts, dust storms, flash flooding and lightning. A convective resolving grid spacing (on the kilometer scale) model is required to explicitly represent the physical characteristics of organized convection, for example the presence of leading convective lines and trailing stratiform precipitation regions. Our objective is to analyze how monsoon severe weather is changing in relation to anthropogenic climate change. We first consider a dynamically downscaled reanalysis during a historical period 1948-2010. Individual severe weather event days, identified by favorable thermodynamic conditions, are then simulated for short-term, numerical weather prediction-type simulations of 30h at a convective-permitting scale. Changes in modeled severe weather events indicate increases in precipitation intensity in association with long-term increases in atmospheric instability and moisture, particularly with organized convection downwind of mountain ranges. However, because the frequency of synoptic transients is decreasing during the monsoon, organized convection is less frequent and convective precipitation tends to be more phased locked to terrain. These types of modeled changes also similarly appear in observed CPC precipitation, when the severe weather event days are selected using historical radiosonde data. Next, we apply the identical model simulation and analysis procedures to several dynamically downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 models for the period 1950-2100, to assess how monsoon severe weather may change in the future with respect to occurrence and intensity and if these changes correspond with what is already occurring in the historical record. The CMIP5 models we are downscaling (HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-LR) will be included as part of North American COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX). Results from this project will be used for climate change impacts assessment for U.S. military installations in the region.

Effect of weather patterns on preweaning growth of beef calves in the Northern Great Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Beef production records collected over a 76-year investigation into effects of linebreeding and selection of Hereford cattle, and concurrent weather records were used to assess effects of weather patterns on the growth of calves from birth to weaning. Data were simultaneously adjusted for trends in ...

The use of a high resolution model in a private environment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Dijke, D.; Malda, D.

2009-09-01

The commercial organisation MeteoGroup uses high resolution modelling for multiple purposes. MeteoGroup uses the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF®1). WRF is used in the operational environment of several MeteoGroup companies across Europe. It is also used in hindcast studies, for example hurricane tracking, wind climate computation and deriving boundary conditions for air quality models. A special operational service was set up for our tornado chasing team that uses high resolution flexible WRF data to chase for super cells and tornados in the USA during spring. Much effort is put into the development and improvement of the pre- and post-processing of the model. At MeteoGroup the static land-use data has been extended and adjusted to improve temperature and wind forecasts. The system has been modified such that sigma level input data from the global ECMWF model can be used for initialisation. By default only pressure level data could be used. During the spin-up of the model synoptical observations are nudged. A program to adjust possible initialisation errors of several surface parameters in coastal areas has been implemented. We developed an algorithm that computes cloud fractions using multiple direct model output variables. Forecasters prefer to use weather codes for their daily forecasts to detect severe weather. For this usage we developed model weather codes using a variety of direct model output and our own derived variables. 1 WRF® is a registered trademark of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)

The Influence of Weather Variation, Urban Design and Built Environment on Objectively Measured Sedentary Behaviour in Children.

PubMed

Katapally, Tarun Reddy; Rainham, Daniel; Muhajarine, Nazeem

2016-01-01

With emerging evidence indicating that independent of physical activity, sedentary behaviour (SB) can be detrimental to health, researchers are increasingly aiming to understand the influence of multiple contexts such as urban design and built environment on SB. However, weather variation, a factor that continuously interacts with all other environmental variables, has been consistently underexplored. This study investigated the influence of diverse environmental exposures (including weather variation, urban design and built environment) on SB in children. This cross-sectional observational study is part of an active living research initiative set in the Canadian prairie city of Saskatoon. Saskatoon's neighbourhoods were classified based on urban street design into grid-pattern, fractured grid-pattern and curvilinear types of neighbourhoods. Diverse environmental exposures were measured including, neighbourhood built environment, and neighbourhood and household socioeconomic environment. Actical accelerometers were deployed between April and June 2010 (spring-summer) to derive SB of 331 10-14 year old children in 25 one week cycles. Each cycle of accelerometry was conducted on a different cohort of children within the total sample. Accelerometer data were matched with localized weather patterns derived from Environment Canada weather data. Multilevel modeling using Hierarchical Linear and Non-linear Modeling software was conducted by factoring in weather variation to depict the influence of diverse environmental exposures on SB. Both weather variation and urban design played a significant role in SB. After factoring in weather variation, it was observed that children living in grid-pattern neighbourhoods closer to the city centre (with higher diversity of destinations) were less likely to be sedentary. This study demonstrates a methodology that could be replicated to integrate geography-specific weather patterns with existing cross-sectional accelerometry data to understand the influence of urban design and built environment on SB in children.

Daily Weather and Children's Physical Activity Patterns.

PubMed

Remmers, Teun; Thijs, Carel; Timperio, Anna; Salmon, J O; Veitch, Jenny; Kremers, Stef P J; Ridgers, Nicola D

2017-05-01

Understanding how the weather affects physical activity (PA) may help in the design, analysis, and interpretation of future studies, especially when investigating PA across diverse meteorological settings and with long follow-up periods. The present longitudinal study first aims to examine the influence of daily weather elements on intraindividual PA patterns among primary school children across four seasons, reflecting day-to-day variation within each season. Second, we investigate whether the influence of weather elements differs by day of the week (weekdays vs weekends), gender, age, and body mass index. PA data were collected by ActiGraph accelerometers for 1 wk in each of four school terms that reflect each season in southeast Australia. PA data from 307 children (age range 8.7-12.8 yr) were matched to daily meteorological variables obtained from the Australian Government's Bureau of Meteorology (maximum temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, day length, and rainfall). Daily PA patterns and their association with weather elements were analyzed using multilevel linear mixed models. Temperature was the strongest predictor of moderate and vigorous PA, followed by solar radiation and humidity. The relation with temperature was curvilinear, showing optimum PA levels at temperatures between 20°C and 22°C. Associations between weather elements on PA did not differ by gender, child's age, or body mass index. This novel study focused on the influence of weather elements on intraindividual PA patterns in children. As weather influences cannot be controlled, knowledge of its effect on individual PA patterns may help in the design of future studies, interpretation of their results, and translation into PA promotion.

Vector wind, horizontal divergence, wind stress and wind stress curl from SEASAT-SASS at one degree resolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierson, W. J., Jr.; Sylvester, W. B.; Salfi, R. E.

1984-01-01

Conventional data obtained in 1983 are contrasted with SEASAT-A scatterometer and scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) data to show how observations at a single station can be extended to an area of about 150,000 square km by means of remotely sensed data obtained in nine minutes. Superobservations at a one degree resolution for the vector winds were estimated along with their standard deviations. From these superobservations, the horizontal divergence, vector wind stress, and the curl of the wind stress can be found. Weather forecasting theory is discussed and meteorological charts of the North Pacific Ocean are presented. Synoptic meteorology as a technique is examined.

Network analysis reveals multiscale controls on streamwater chemistry

Treesearch

Kevin J. McGuire; Christian E. Torgersen; Gene E. Likens; Donald C. Buso; Winsor H. Lowe; Scott W. Bailey

2014-01-01

By coupling synoptic data from a basin-wide assessment of streamwater chemistry with network-based geostatistical analysis, we show that spatial processes differentially affect biogeochemical condition and pattern across a headwater stream network. We analyzed a high-resolution dataset consisting of 664 water samples collected every 100 m throughout 32 tributaries in...

Race, Memory, and Master Narratives: A Critical Essay on U.S. Curriculum History

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Anthony L.; Au, Wayne

2014-01-01

The field of curriculum studies has a history of looking at its own past, summarizing and synthesizing the trends and patterns across its foundations. Whether through synoptic texts, historical analyses, or edited collections, the field's foundational retrospection typically traces a lineage of curriculum studies that runs through various…

Thunderstorm incidence in southeastern Brazil estimated from different data sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinto, O., Jr.; Naccarato, K. P.; Pinto, I. R. C. A.

2013-07-01

This paper describes a comparative analysis of the thunderstorm incidence in southeastern Brazil obtained from thunderstorm days observed at two different epochs (from 1910 to 1951 and from 1971 to 1984) and from lightning data provided by the Brazilian lightning location system RINDAT (from 1999 to 2006) and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite (from 1998 to 2010). The results are interpreted in terms of the main synoptic patterns associated with thunderstorm activity in this region, indicating that the prevailing synoptic pattern associated with thunderstorm activity is the occurrence of frontal systems and their modulation by the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and topography. Evidence of urban effects is also found. The results are also discussed in the context of practical applications involving their use in the Brazilian lightning protection standards, suggesting that the present version of the Brazilian standards should be revised incorporating RINDAT and LIS data. Finally, the results are important to improve our knowledge about the limitations of the different techniques used to record the thunderstorm activity and support future climatic studies.

Evidence linking rapid Arctic warming to mid-latitude weather patterns.

PubMed

Francis, Jennifer; Skific, Natasa

2015-07-13

The effects of rapid Arctic warming and ice loss on weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere is a topic of active research, lively scientific debate and high societal impact. The emergence of Arctic amplification--the enhanced sensitivity of high-latitude temperature to global warming--in only the last 10-20 years presents a challenge to identifying statistically robust atmospheric responses using observations. Several recent studies have proposed and demonstrated new mechanisms by which the changing Arctic may be affecting weather patterns in mid-latitudes, and these linkages differ fundamentally from tropics/jet-stream interactions through the transfer of wave energy. In this study, new metrics and evidence are presented that suggest disproportionate Arctic warming-and resulting weakening of the poleward temperature gradient-is causing the Northern Hemisphere circulation to assume a more meridional character (i.e. wavier), although not uniformly in space or by season, and that highly amplified jet-stream patterns are occurring more frequently. Further analysis based on self-organizing maps supports this finding. These changes in circulation are expected to lead to persistent weather patterns that are known to cause extreme weather events. As emissions of greenhouse gases continue unabated, therefore, the continued amplification of Arctic warming should favour an increased occurrence of extreme events caused by prolonged weather conditions.

Satellite-derived attributes of cloud vortex systems and their application to climate studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carleton, Andrew M.

1987-01-01

Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) visible and infrared mosaics are analyzed in conjunction with synoptic meteorological observations of sea level pressure (SLP) and upper-air height to derive composite patterns of cyclonic cloud vortices for the Northern Hemisphere. The patterns reveal variations in the structure and implied dynamics of cyclonic systems at different stages of development that include: (1) increasing vertical symmetry of the lower-level and upper-air circulations and (2) decreasing lower-tropospheric thicknesses and temperature advection, associated with increasing age of the vortex. Cloud vortices are more intense in winter than in summer and typically reach maximum intensity in the short-lived prespiral signature stage. There are major structural differences among frontal wave, polar air, and 'instant occlusion' cyclogenesis types. Cyclones in the dissipation stage may reintensify (deepen), as denoted by the appearance in the imagery of an asymmetric cloud band or a tightened spiral vortex. The satellite-derived statistics on cloud vortex intensity, which are seasonal- and latitude- as well as type-dependent, are applied to a preliminary examination of the synoptic manifestations of seasonal climate variability. An apparently close relationship is found, for two winter and spring seasons, between Northern Hemisphere cyclonic activity and variations in cryosphere variables, particularly the extent of Arctic sea ice. The results may indicate that increased snow and ice extent accompany a southward displacement of cyclonic activity and/or a predominance of deeper systems. However, there is also a strong regional dependence to the ice-synoptics feedback. This study demonstrates the utility of high resolution meteorological satellite imagery for studies of climate variations (climate dynamics).

Isolating weather effects from seasonal activity patterns of a temperate North American Colubrid

Treesearch

Andrew D. George; Frank R. III Thompson; John Faaborg

2015-01-01

Forecasting the effects of climate change on threatened ecosystems and species will require an understanding of how weather influences processes that drive population dynamics. We have evaluated weather effects on activity patterns of western ratsnakes, a widespread predator of birds and small mammals in eastern North America. From 2010-2013 we radio-tracked 53...

Atmospheric circulation patterns associated to the variability of River Ammer floods: evidence from observed and proxy data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimbu, N.; Czymzik, M.; Ionita, M.; Lohmann, G.; Brauer, A.

2015-09-01

The relationship between the frequency of River Ammer floods (southern Germany) and atmospheric circulation variability is investigated based on observational Ammer discharge data back to 1926 and a flood layer time series from varved sediments of the downstream Lake Ammersee for the pre-instrumental period back to 1766. A composite analysis reveals that, at synoptic time scales, observed River Ammer floods are associated with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean towards the Ammer region, a pronounced trough over Western Europe as well as enhanced potential vorticity at upper levels. We argue that this synoptic scale configuration can trigger heavy precipitation and floods in the Ammer region. Interannual to multidecadal increases in flood frequency as recorded in the instrumental discharge record are associated to a wave-train pattern extending from the North Atlantic to western Asia with a prominent negative center over western Europe. A similar atmospheric circulation pattern is associated to increases in flood layer frequency in the Lake Ammersee sediment record during the pre-instrumental period. We argue that the complete flood layer time-series from Lake Ammersee sediments covering the last 5500 years, contains information about atmospheric circulation variability on inter-annual to millennial time-scales.

Effects of sudden air pressure changes on hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases in Prague

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kysely, Jan; Plavcova, Eva

2013-04-01

Sudden weather changes have long been supposed to be associated with negative impacts on human health. However, relatively few studies attempted to quantify these relationships. In this study, we use large 6-hour changes of atmospheric sea level pressure as proxy for sudden weather changes, and evaluate their association with hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases. Winter and summer seasons and positive and negative pressure changes are analyzed separately, using data for the city of Prague (population of 1.2 million) over 16-year period (1994-2009). We find that sudden pressure drops in winter are associated with significant increases in the number of hospital admissions. Increases in morbidity are not observed for pressure drops in summer, nor pressure increases in any season. Analysis of synoptic weather maps shows that the large pressure drops in winter are associated with strong zonal (westerly) flow and rapidly moving low pressure systems with centres over Northern Europe and atmospheric fronts affecting the area of Western and Central Europe. Several of the largest pressure decreases were associated with infamous winter storms (such as Lothar on December 25, 1999 and Kyrill on January 18, 2007). Analysis of links between passages of strong atmospheric fronts and hospital admissions shows that the links are much weaker if weather changes are characterized by frontal passages. Since climate models project strengthening of the zonal circulation in winter and increased frequency of winter storms, the negative effects of such weather phenomena and their possible changes in a warmer climate of the 21st century need to be better understood, particularly as their importance in inducing excess morbidity and mortality in winter may increase compared to cold spells.

From AWE-GEN to AWE-GEN-2d: a high spatial and temporal resolution weather generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo

2016-04-01

A new weather generator, AWE-GEN-2d (Advanced WEather GENerator for 2-Dimension grid) is developed following the philosophy of combining physical and stochastic approaches to simulate meteorological variables at high spatial and temporal resolution (e.g. 2 km x 2 km and 5 min for precipitation and cloud cover and 100 m x 100 m and 1 h for other variables variable (temperature, solar radiation, vapor pressure, atmospheric pressure and near-surface wind). The model is suitable to investigate the impacts of climate variability, temporal and spatial resolutions of forcing on hydrological, ecological, agricultural and geomorphological impacts studies. Using appropriate parameterization the model can be used in the context of climate change. Here we present the model technical structure of AWE-GEN-2d, which is a substantial evolution of four preceding models (i) the hourly-point scale Advanced WEather GENerator (AWE-GEN) presented by Fatichi et al. (2011, Adv. Water Resour.) (ii) the Space-Time Realizations of Areal Precipitation (STREAP) model introduced by Paschalis et al. (2013, Water Resour. Res.), (iii) the High-Resolution Synoptically conditioned Weather Generator developed by Peleg and Morin (2014, Water Resour. Res.), and (iv) the Wind-field Interpolation by Non Divergent Schemes presented by Burlando et al. (2007, Boundary-Layer Meteorol.). The AWE-GEN-2d is relatively parsimonious in terms of computational demand and allows generating many stochastic realizations of current and projected climates in an efficient way. An example of model application and testing is presented with reference to a case study in the Wallis region, a complex orography terrain in the Swiss Alps.

Spaceborne imaging radar - Geologic and oceanographic applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elachi, C.

1980-01-01

Synoptic, large-area radar images of the earth's land and ocean surface, obtained from the Seasat orbiting spacecraft, show the potential for geologic mapping and for monitoring of ocean surface patterns. Structural and topographic features such as lineaments, anticlines, folds and domes, drainage patterns, stratification, and roughness units can be mapped. Ocean surface waves, internal waves, current boundaries, and large-scale eddies have been observed in numerous images taken by the Seasat imaging radar. This article gives an illustrated overview of these applications.

Saharan dust intrusions in Spain: Health impacts and associated synoptic conditions.

PubMed

Díaz, Julio; Linares, Cristina; Carmona, Rocío; Russo, Ana; Ortiz, Cristina; Salvador, Pedro; Trigo, Ricardo Machado

2017-07-01

A lot of papers have been published about the impact on mortality of Sahara dust intrusions in individual cities. However, there is a lack of studies that analyse the impact on a country and scarcer if in addition the analysis takes into account the meteorological conditions that favour these intrusions. The main aim is to examine the effect of Saharan dust intrusions on daily mortality in different Spanish regions and to characterize the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with such dust intrusions. For determination of days with Saharan dust intrusions, we used information supplied by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food & Environment, it divides Spain into 9 main areas. In each of these regions, a representative province was selected. A time series analysis has been performed to analyse the relationship between daily mortality and PM 10 levels in the period from 01.01.04 to 31.12.09, using Poisson regression and stratifying the analysis by the presence or absence of Saharan dust advections. The proportion of days on which there are Saharan dust intrusions rises to 30% of days. The synoptic pattern is characterised by an anticyclonic ridge extending from northern Africa to the Iberian Peninsula. Particulate matter (PM) on days with intrusions are associated with daily mortality, something that does not occur on days without intrusions, indicating that Saharan dust may be a risk factor for daily mortality. In other cases, what Saharan dust intrusions do is to change the PM-related mortality behaviour pattern, going from PM 2.5 . A study such as the one conducted here, in which meteorological analysis of synoptic situations which favour Saharan dust intrusions, is combined with the effect on health at a city level, would seem to be crucial when it comes to analysing the differentiated mortality pattern in situations of Saharan dust intrusions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Weather patterns as a downscaling tool - evaluating their skill in stratifying local climate variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murawski, Aline; Bürger, Gerd; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

The use of a weather pattern based approach for downscaling of coarse, gridded atmospheric data, as usually obtained from the output of general circulation models (GCM), allows for investigating the impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on fluxes and state variables of the hydrological cycle such as e.g. on runoff in large river catchments. Here we aim at attributing changes in high flows in the Rhine catchment to anthropogenic climate change. Therefore we run an objective classification scheme (simulated annealing and diversified randomisation - SANDRA, available from the cost733 classification software) on ERA20C reanalyses data and apply the established classification to GCMs from the CMIP5 project. After deriving weather pattern time series from GCM runs using forcing from all greenhouse gases (All-Hist) and using natural greenhouse gas forcing only (Nat-Hist), a weather generator will be employed to obtain climate data time series for the hydrological model. The parameters of the weather pattern classification (i.e. spatial extent, number of patterns, classification variables) need to be selected in a way that allows for good stratification of the meteorological variables that are of interest for the hydrological modelling. We evaluate the skill of the classification in stratifying meteorological data using a multi-variable approach. This allows for estimating the stratification skill for all meteorological variables together, not separately as usually done in existing similar work. The advantage of the multi-variable approach is to properly account for situations where e.g. two patterns are associated with similar mean daily temperature, but one pattern is dry while the other one is related to considerable amounts of precipitation. Thus, the separation of these two patterns would not be justified when considering temperature only, but is perfectly reasonable when accounting for precipitation as well. Besides that, the weather patterns derived from reanalyses data should be well represented in the All-Hist GCM runs in terms of e.g. frequency, seasonality, and persistence. In this contribution we show how to select the most appropriate weather pattern classification and how the classes derived from it are reflected in the GCMs.

Monitoring the evolving land use patterns using remote sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goehring, D. R.

1971-01-01

The urbanization of Walnut Valley from 1953-71 prompted land use change from intensive von Thunen market-oriented patterns to extensive, disinvested, production-factor-minimized patterns. Shortrun, interim land use planning, has allowed agriculture to persist but only in the form of barley farming and grazing. Aerial photography used synoptically recorded six periods of land use change that bracketed dates before and after the freeway was announced and built. Interpretations of these changes help recognize potential conversions to urban uses which allow guidelines to be established that deal with rural-urban transition problems before they arise.

Using synoptic tracer surveys to assess runoff sources in an Andean headwater catchment in central Chile.

PubMed

Nauditt, A; Soulsby, C; Birkel, C; Rusman, A; Schüth, C; Ribbe, L; Álvarez, P; Kretschmer, N

2017-09-01

Headwater catchments in the Andes provide critical sources of water for downstream areas with large agricultural communities dependent upon irrigation. Data from such remote headwater catchments are sparse, and there is limited understanding of their hydrological function to guide sustainable water management. Here, we present the findings of repeat synoptic tracer surveys as rapid appraisal tools to understand dominant hydrological flow paths in the semi-arid Rio Grande basin, a 572-km 2 headwater tributary of the 11,696-km 2 Limarí basin in central Chile. Stable isotopes in stream water show a typical altitudinal effect, with downstream enrichment in δ 2 H and δ 18 O ratios. Seasonal signals are displayed in the isotopic composition of the springtime melting season water line with a steeper gradient, whilst evaporative effects are represented by lower seasonal gradients for autumn and summer. Concentrations of solutes indexed by electrical conductivity indicate that there are limited contributions of deeper mineralised groundwater to streamflow and that weathering rates vary in the different sub-catchments. Although simplistic, the insights gained from the study could be used to inform the structure and parameterisation of rainfall runoff models to provide seasonal discharge predictions as an evidence base for decision making in local water management.

Verification of NWP Cloud Properties using A-Train Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucera, P. A.; Weeks, C.; Wolff, C.; Bullock, R.; Brown, B.

2011-12-01

Recently, the NCAR Model Evaluation Tools (MET) has been enhanced to incorporate satellite observations for the verification of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) cloud products. We have developed tools that match fields spatially (both in the vertical and horizontal dimensions) to compare NWP products with satellite observations. These matched fields provide diagnostic evaluation of cloud macro attributes such as vertical distribution of clouds, cloud top height, and the spatial and seasonal distribution of cloud fields. For this research study, we have focused on using CloudSat, CALIPSO, and MODIS observations to evaluate cloud fields for a variety of NWP fields and derived products. We have selected cases ranging from large, mid-latitude synoptic systems to well-organized tropical cyclones. For each case, we matched the observed cloud field with gridded model and/or derived product fields. CloudSat and CALIPSO observations and model fields were matched and compared in the vertical along the orbit track. MODIS data and model fields were matched and compared in the horizontal. We then use MET to compute the verification statistics to quantify the performance of the models in representing the cloud fields. In this presentation we will give a summary of our comparison and show verification results for both synoptic and tropical cyclone cases.

Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pantillon, Florian; Knippertz, Peter; Corsmeier, Ulrich

2017-10-01

New insights into the synoptic-scale predictability of 25 severe European winter storms of the 1995-2015 period are obtained using the homogeneous ensemble reforecast dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The predictability of the storms is assessed with different metrics including (a) the track and intensity to investigate the storms' dynamics and (b) the Storm Severity Index to estimate the impact of the associated wind gusts. The storms are well predicted by the whole ensemble up to 2-4 days ahead. At longer lead times, the number of members predicting the observed storms decreases and the ensemble average is not clearly defined for the track and intensity. The Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails are therefore computed from the deviation of the ensemble from the model climate. Based on these indices, the model has some skill in forecasting the area covered by extreme wind gusts up to 10 days, which indicates a clear potential for early warnings. However, large variability is found between the individual storms. The poor predictability of outliers appears related to their physical characteristics such as explosive intensification or small size. Longer datasets with more cases would be needed to further substantiate these points.

78 FR 78486 - Notice of Funding Availability for Resilience Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-26

... changes in development patterns, demographics, or climate change and extreme weather patterns. For the... located; or projected changes in development patterns, demographics, or extreme weather or other climate... climate-related disasters are a continuing threat. According to the ``Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Strategy...

Seasonal and intraseasonal variations in evaporation and surface energy budget from eddy covariance measurements over an open water surface in Mississippi, U.S.A.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, H.; Zhang, Y.; Williams, Q. L.; Jiang, H.; Sheng, L.

2008-12-01

Understanding seasonal and intraseasonal variations in evaporation over lake/reservoir is important for water resource management as well as predicting variations in hydrology as a result of climate change. Since August of 2007, we have conducted a long-term eddy covariance measurement of evaporation and the surface energy budget over Ross Barnett Reservoir (32o26'N, 90o02'W) in Mississippi, USA. The fetch for eddy covariance system exceeds 2 km in all directions and the water depth is about 4 m around the flux tower. The tower with its height of 4 m stands over a stationary wood platform with its size of 3 m × 3 m and height of about 1 m above the water surface. Along with sensible and latent heat fluxes, microclimate data are also measured, including wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, solar radiation, net radiation, air temperature at four levels, water surface temperature, and water temperature at eight depths down to about 4 m. Mississippi is subject to frequent influences of different synoptic weather systems in a year around. Incursions of these different systems bring in air masses with different properties in temperature and moisture. Cold fronts, for example, carry them with cold and dry air from north while warm fronts with warm and moist air. Our results indicate that synoptic weather variations play an important role in controlling evaporations and the surface energy budget. For example, daily H and LE (i.e., evaporation) during the passages of cold fronts are around 2-4 times those of normal days and these cold front events lead to an increase in the seasonal H by approximately 420 and LE by 160%. However, the warm weather systems suppress largely the turbulent exchanges of sensible and latent heat, leading to very small evaporation and sensible heat fluxes (even negative). These results imply that future potential changes in cold front activities (intensity, frequency, and duration) as a result of climate change may lead to substantial shifts in regional energy budget and hydrological balance in the southern regions with an abundance of open water bodies (e.g., lakes, reservoirs, swamps etc). Using these datasets, the daytime and nighttime evaporation rates are also analyzed and nighttime evaporative water losses are substantial, contributing a significant portion to the total evaporative water loss.

Cross-timescale Interference and Rainfall Extreme Events in South Eastern South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz, Angel G.

The physical mechanisms and predictability associated with extreme daily rainfall in South East South America (SESA) are investigated for the December-February season. Through a k-mean analysis, a robust set of daily circulation regimes is identified and then it is used to link the frequency of rainfall extreme events with large-scale potential predictors at subseasonal-to-seasonal scales. This basic set of daily circulation regimes is related to the continental and oceanic phases of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and wave train patterns superimposed on the Southern Hemisphere Polar Jet. Some of these recurrent synoptic circulation types are conducive to extreme rainfall events in the region through synoptic control of different meso-scale physical features and, at the same time, are influenced by climate phenomena that could be used as sources of potential predictability. Extremely high rainfall (as measured by the 95th- and 99th-percentiles) is preferentially associated with two of these weather types, which are characterized by moisture advection intrusions from lower latitudes and the Pacific; another three weather types, characterized by above-normal moisture advection toward lower latitudes or the Andes, are preferentially associated with dry days (days with no rain). The analysis permits the identification of several subseasonal-to-seasonal scale potential predictors that modulate the occurrence of circulation regimes conducive to extreme rainfall events in SESA. It is conjectured that a cross-timescale interference between the different climate drivers improves the predictive skill of extreme precipitation in the region. The potential and real predictive skill of the frequency of extreme rainfall is then evaluated, finding evidence indicating that mechanisms of climate variability at one timescale contribute to the predictability at another scale, i.e., taking into account the interference of different potential sources of predictability at different timescales increases the predictive skill. This fact is in agreement with the Cross-timescale Interference Conjecture proposed in the first part of the thesis. At seasonal scale, a combination of those weather types tends to outperform all the other potential predictors explored, i.e., sea surface temperature patterns, phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and combinations of both. Spatially averaged Kendall’s τ improvements of 43% for the potential predictability and 23% for realtime predictions are attained with respect to standard models considering sea-surface temperature fields alone. A new subseasonal-to-seasonal predictive methodology for extreme rainfall events is proposed, based on probability forecasts of seasonal sequences of these weather types. The cross-validated realtime skill of the new probabilistic approach, as measured by the Hit Score and the Heidke Skill Score, is on the order of twice that associated with climatological values. The approach is designed to offer useful subseasonal-to-seasonal climate information to decision-makers interested not only in how many extreme events will happen in the season, but also in how, when and where those events will probably occur. In order to gain further understanding about how the cross-timescale interference occurs, an externally-forced Lorenz model is used to explore the impact of different kind of forcings, at inter-annual and decadal scales, in the establishment of constructive interactions associated with the simulated “extreme events”. Using a wavelet analysis, it is shown that this simple model is capable of reproducing the same kind of cross-timescale structures observed in the wavelet power spectrum of the Nino3.4 index only when it is externally forced by both inter-annual and decadal signals: the annual cycle and a decadal forcing associated with the natural solar variability. The nature of this interaction is non-linear, and it impacts both mean and extreme values in the time series. No predictive power was found when using metrics like standard deviation and auto-correlation. Nonetheless, it was proposed that an early warning signal for occurrence of extreme rainfall in SESA may be possible via a continuous monitoring of relative phases between the cross-timescale leading components.

Contributions of ignitions, fuels, and weather to the spatial patterns of burn probability of a boreal landscape

Treesearch

Marc-Andre Parisien; Sean A. Parks; Carol Miller; Meg A. Krawchuck; Mark Heathcott; Max A. Moritz

2011-01-01

The spatial pattern of fire observed across boreal landscapes is the outcome of complex interactions among components of the fire environment. We investigated how the naturally occurring patterns of ignitions, fuels, and weather generate spatial pattern of burn probability (BP) in a large and highly fireprone boreal landscape of western Canada, Wood Buffalo National...

A Multiscale Analysis of Upstream Precursors associated with High Impact Severe Weather Events across the Upper Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metz, N. D.; Cordeira, J. M.

2014-12-01

Between 30 June and 1 July 2011, a heavy-rain-producing mesoscale convective system (MCS) occurred over Lake Michigan. A second MCS subsequently occurred over Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin on 1 July 2011 resulting in more than 200 severe weather reports. The antecedent large-scale flow evolution was strongly influenced by early-season tropical cyclones (TCs) Haima and Meari in the western North Pacific. The recurvature and subsequent interaction of these TCs with the extratropical large-scale flow was associated with Rossby wave train (RWT) amplification on 22-26 June 2011 over the western North Pacific and dispersion across North America on 28-30 June 2011. The RWT dispersion was associated with trough (ridge) development over western (central) North America at the time of MCS development over the Midwestern United States. This evolution of the large-scale flow and attendant meso-synoptic scale forcing for ascent were particularly conducive to heavy rainfall and severe weather as a surface-based mixed layer over the Intermountain Western United States was advected eastward, transitioning to an elevated mixed layer (EML) over the Midwestern United States. These two MCSs serve as motivation for a climatology of EML days and their relationship to severe weather over the Midwestern United States. The climatology illustrates that severe weather reports near Minneapolis, MN during the summer are twice as numerous on EML days as compared to normal. The increase in severe weather reports are primarily driven by more large hail and severe wind, which account for 95% of all severe weather reports on EML days. A time-lagged composite analysis indicates that RWT amplification over the central North Pacific and RWT dispersion across the eastern North Pacific and North American, as occurred prior to the 30 June-1 July period, is a common upstream precursor to EML days over the Midwestern United States. These results suggest that investigations of far upstream precursors to RWT amplification and dispersion over the North Pacific may be particularly useful in better understanding warm-season severe weather outbreaks over North America.

Solar thematic maps for space weather operations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rigler, E. Joshua; Hill, Steven M.; Reinard, Alysha A.; Steenburgh, Robert A.

2012-01-01

Thematic maps are arrays of labels, or "themes", associated with discrete locations in space and time. Borrowing heavily from the terrestrial remote sensing discipline, a numerical technique based on Bayes' theorem captures operational expertise in the form of trained theme statistics, then uses this to automatically assign labels to solar image pixels. Ultimately, regular thematic maps of the solar corona will be generated from high-cadence, high-resolution SUVI images, the solar ultraviolet imager slated to fly on NOAA's next-generation GOES-R series of satellites starting ~2016. These thematic maps will not only provide quicker, more consistent synoptic views of the sun for space weather forecasters, but digital thematic pixel masks (e.g., coronal hole, active region, flare, etc.), necessary for a new generation of operational solar data products, will be generated. This paper presents the mathematical underpinnings of our thematic mapper, as well as some practical algorithmic considerations. Then, using images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Advanced Imaging Array (AIA) as test data, it presents results from validation experiments designed to ascertain the robustness of the technique with respect to differing expert opinions and changing solar conditions.

Reduced Urban Heat Island intensity under warmer conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, Anna A.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Zaitchik, Ben F.

2018-06-01

The Urban Heat Island (UHI), the tendency for urban areas to be hotter than rural regions, represents a significant health concern in summer as urban populations are exposed to elevated temperatures. A number of studies suggest that the UHI increases during warmer conditions, however there has been no investigation of this for a large ensemble of cities. Here we compare urban and rural temperatures in 54 US cities for 2000–2015 and show that the intensity of the Urban Heat Island, measured here as the differences in daily-minimum or daily-maximum temperatures between urban and rural stations or ΔT, in fact tends to decrease with increasing temperature in most cities (38/54). This holds when investigating daily variability, heat extremes, and variability across climate zones and is primarily driven by changes in rural areas. We relate this change to large-scale or synoptic weather conditions, and find that the lowest ΔT nights occur during moist weather conditions. We also find that warming cities have not experienced an increasing Urban Heat Island effect.

The Association Between Fog and Temperature Inversions from Ground and Radiosonde Observations in East Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilson, G.; Jiskoot, H.

2016-12-01

Many Arctic glaciers terminate along coasts where temperature inversions and sea fog are frequent during summer. Both can influence glacier ablation, but the effects of fog may be complex. To understand fog's physical and radiative properties and its association to temperature inversions it is important to determine accurate Arctic coastal fog climatologies In previous research we determined that fog in East Greenland peaks in the melt season and can be spatially extensive over glacierized terrain. In this study we aim to understand which environmental factors influence fog occurrence in East Greenland; understand the association between fog and temperature inversions; and quantify fog height. We analyzed fog observations and other weather data from coastal synoptic weather stations, and extracted temperature inversions from the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive radiosonde profiles. Fog height was calculated from radiosonde profiles, based on a method developed for radiation fog which we expanded to include advection and steam fog. Our results show that Arctic coastal fog requires sea ice breakup and a sea breeze with wind speed between 1-4 m/s. Fog is mostly advective, occurring under stable synoptic conditions characterized by deep and strong low-level temperature inversions. Steam fog may occur 5-30% of the time. Fog can occur under near-surface subsidence, with a subsaturated inversion base, or a saturated inversion base. We classified five types of fog based on their vertical sounding characteristics: only at the surface, below an inversion, capped by an inversion, inside a surface-based inversion, or inside a low-level inversion. Fog is commonly 100-400 m thick, often reaching the top of the boundary layer. Fog height is greater at northern stations, where daily fog duration is longer and relative humidity lower. Our results will be included in glacier energy-balance models to account for the influence of fog and temperature inversions on glacier melt.

A contrast between nocturnal flow regimes: Observations and modeling simulations of katabatic intrusions in the Laramie Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juliano, Timothy W.

Katabatic winds commonly occur in mountainous regions under statically stable conditions when a sufficient deficit exists in the net radiation budget. Observations of these stable boundary layer (SBL) downslope flows have extended back to the 1930s. Their interactions with other SBL processes, including cold air pools (CAPs) and mountain waves, are quite complex, however, and have only more recently been deeply investigated. The University of Wyoming (UW) wind tower (WT) and flux tower (WT), situated in the Laramie Valley, were utilized in examining a dataset spanning from 14 December 2011 to 12 September 2013. A set of criteria were developed to determine katabatic intrusion events, and establish a climatology of these events, at the WT. The 21-22 December 2012 nighttime period was then studied in detail using data from the aforementioned towers in addition to weather stations throughout the Laramie Valley and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Both observations and modeling results indicated a competition between two strongly contrasting flow regimes: synoptic and katabatic. The synoptic regime was characterized by strong, southwesterly winds, warm temperatures, and turbulent flow, while the katabatic regime featured weaker, southeasterly winds, cooler temperatures, and intermittently turbulent flow. Sonic and propeller anemometers on the WT elucidated the chaotic transition between the regimes. At the WT, it was found that between regimes the wind speed decreased by up to 60%, wind direction often shifted over 120°, and potential temperature usually decreased more than 2°C. The katabatic wind depth was postulated to be variable in time and space, with its head sloping towards the trailing CAP. Topographically generated mountain waves and local terrain forcing are suspected to play an integral role in the development and evolution of the katabatic wind in the Laramie Valley. Results from this research yield promising insight into the intricate relationships between various SBL processes in complex terrain.

Synoptic patterns leading to hailstorm in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salahi, Bromand; Nohegar, Ahmad; Behrouzi, Mahmoud; Aalijahan, Mehdi

2018-03-01

The purpose of this study was to extract the synoptic patterns of 500 mb geopotential height and the sea level pressure leading to form hail in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, Iran. To this end, at first, we explored hail occurrence in different areas of the province under investigation. Then, using sea level pressure and 500 mb geopotential height data, the patterns of hail occurrence were investigated through hierarchical clustering and Ward's method. The level of 500 mb patterns resulting in hail formation in the area include: (1) settlement of a cut-off low pressure blocking in Turkey and Iran's position in downstream of trough and injection of humidity coming from the Red Sea; (2) settlement of low ridge in northern Europe and Iran lying in downstream of the trough and injection of humidity of the Mediterranean Sea; (3) settlement of a cut-off low pressure in east of Europe and Iran lying in downstream of the trough; and (4) settlement of a deep trough in the Mediterranean Sea, formation of an omega-shaped blocking in Northern Europe and Iran lying in downstream of the trough. At sea level, the following patterns have caused hail formation in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province: (1) settlement of low pressure in Iran and Russia accompanying high pressure in Taklimakan Desert and east of Europe; (2) settlement of low pressure in Iran and high pressure in Egypt, northern Europe, and Taklimakan Desert; and (3) settlement of low pressure in Iran, Saudi Arabia and south of Italy and high pressure in Egypt and Siberia.

Rare earth elements in weathering profiles and sediments of Minnesota: Implications for provenance studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morey, G.B.; Setterholm, D.R.

1997-01-01

The relative abundance of rare earth elements in sediments has been suggested as a tool for determining their source rocks. This correlation requires that weathering, erosion, and sedimentation do not alter the REE abundances, or do so in a predictable manner. We find that the rare earth elements are mobilized and fractionated by weathering, and that sediments derived from the weathered materials can display modifications of the original pattern of rare earth elements of some due to grain-size sorting of the weathered material. However, the REE distribution pattern of the provenance terrane can be recognized in the sediments.

Storm Identification and Tracking for Hydrologic Modeling Using Hourly Accumulated NEXRAD Precipitation Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olivera, F.; Choi, J.; Socolofsky, S.

2006-12-01

Watershed responses to storm events are strongly affected by the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall; that is, the spatial distribution of the precipitation intensity and its evolution over time. Although real storms are moving entities with non-uniform intensities in both space and time, hydrological applications often synthesize these attributes by assuming storms that are uniformly distributed and have variable intensity according to a pre-defined hyetograph shape. As one considers watersheds of greater size, the non-uniformity of rainfall becomes more important, because a storm may not cover the watershed's entire area and may not stay in the watershed for its full duration. In order to incorporate parameters such as storm area, propagation velocity and direction, and intensity distribution in the definition of synthetic storms, it is necessary to determine these storm characteristics from spatially distributed precipitation data. To date, most algorithms for identifying and tracking storms have been applied to short time-step radar reflectivity data (i.e., 15 minutes or less), where storm features are captured in an effectively synoptic manner. For the entire United States, however, the most reliable distributed precipitation data are the one-hour accumulated 4 km × 4 km gridded NEXRAD data of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) (NWS 2005. The one-hour aggregation level of the data, though, makes it more difficult to identify and track storms than when using sequences of synoptic radar reflectivity data, because storms can traverse over a number of NEXRAD cells and change size and shape appreciably between consecutive data maps. In this paper, we present a methodology to overcome the identification and tracking difficulties and to extract the characteristics of moving storms (e.g. size, propagation velocity and direction, and intensity distribution) from one-hour accumulated distributed rainfall data. The algorithm uses Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) for storm identification and image processing for storm tracking. The method has been successfully applied to Brazos County in Texas using the 2003 Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) NEXRAD rainfall data.

State of the art satellite and airborne marine oil spill remote sensing: Application to the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leifer, Ira; Lehr, William J.; Simecek-Beatty, Debra; Bradley, Eliza; Clark, Roger N.; Dennison, Philip E.; Hu, Yongxiang; Matheson, Scott; Jones, Cathleen E; Holt, Benjamin; Reif, Molly; Roberts, Dar A.; Svejkovsky, Jan; Swayze, Gregg A.; Wozencraft, Jennifer M.

2012-01-01

The vast and persistent Deepwater Horizon (DWH) spill challenged response capabilities, which required accurate, quantitative oil assessment at synoptic and operational scales. Although experienced observers are a spill response's mainstay, few trained observers and confounding factors including weather, oil emulsification, and scene illumination geometry present challenges. DWH spill and impact monitoring was aided by extensive airborne and spaceborne passive and active remote sensing.Oil slick thickness and oil-to-water emulsion ratios are key spill response parameters for containment/cleanup and were derived quantitatively for thick (> 0.1 mm) slicks from AVIRIS (Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer) data using a spectral library approach based on the shape and depth of near infrared spectral absorption features. MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite, visible-spectrum broadband data of surface-slick modulation of sunglint reflection allowed extrapolation to the total slick. A multispectral expert system used a neural network approach to provide Rapid Response thickness class maps.Airborne and satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR) provides synoptic data under all-sky conditions; however, SAR generally cannot discriminate thick (> 100 μm) oil slicks from thin sheens (to 0.1 μm). The UAVSAR's (Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle SAR) significantly greater signal-to-noise ratio and finer spatial resolution allowed successful pattern discrimination related to a combination of oil slick thickness, fractional surface coverage, and emulsification.In situ burning and smoke plumes were studied with AVIRIS and corroborated spaceborne CALIPSO (Cloud Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation) observations of combustion aerosols. CALIPSO and bathymetry lidar data documented shallow subsurface oil, although ancillary data were required for confirmation.Airborne hyperspectral, thermal infrared data have nighttime and overcast collection advantages and were collected as well as MODIS thermal data. However, interpretation challenges and a lack of Rapid Response Products prevented significant use. Rapid Response Products were key to response utilization—data needs are time critical; thus, a high technological readiness level is critical to operational use of remote sensing products. DWH's experience demonstrated that development and operationalization of new spill response remote sensing tools must precede the next major oil spill.

A new perspective on the regional hydrologic cycle over North and South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weng, Shu-Ping

The GEOS-1 vertically-integrated 3-hr moisture flux reanalyses and hourly-gridded United States station precipitation plus a satellite-based, 6-hr global precipitation estimate were employed to investigate the impacts of nocturnal low-level jets (LLJs) on the regional hydrological cycle over the central United States (Part I) and the subtropical plains of South America (Part II). Research stressed the influences of upper-level synoptic-scale waves (i.e., synoptic-scale forcings) upon the regional hydrologic processes, which were explored by the impacts associated with the occurrence of LLJ. Besides the conventional budget analysis, the adopted `synoptic-forcing approach' was proven illustrative in describing these impacts through the down-scaling process of LLJs. In Part 1, the major findings include: (1)the seasonal-averaged hydrological cycle over the Great Plains is strongly affected by the occurrence of GPLLJ, (2)the synoptic-scale forcing provided by the upper-level propagating jet (ULJ) streams is essential in generating the large-scale precipitation after the GPLLJ forms from the diurnal boundary layer process, (3)without the dynamic coupling between the ULJ and LLJ, the impact of LLJ on the hydrological cycle is demonstrated to be less important, and (4)the importance of synoptic-scale forcings in preconditioning the setting of wet/dry seasons in the interannual variability of rainfall anomaly is further illustrated by examining the changes of intensity as well as the occurrence frequency between the different types of LLJ. In Part II of this study, it was found that the occurrence of Andean LLJ represents a transient episode that detours the climatic rainfall activity along the South Atlantic Convergent Zone (SACZ) to the subtropical plains (Brazilian Nordeste) in its southwestern (northeastern) flank. The appearance of a seesaw pattern in the rainfall and flux convergence anomalies along the southeastern portion of South America, which is spatially in quadrature with the seasonal mean circulation, reflects the synoptic-scale forcing generated by the upper-level propagating transient-scale waves. In this regard, the function of the Andean LLJ in providing a scale-interaction mechanism that links the synoptic-scale setting with the localized rainfall event is the same as the GPLLJ. Due to the unique geographic background such as the narrow east-west landmass extension and the relative orientation between the Andean LLJ and the ULJ, however, the enhanced rainfall activity over the subtropical plains in response to the perturbed flux convergence is smaller than the case in the GPLLJ.

The Influence of Weather Variation, Urban Design and Built Environment on Objectively Measured Sedentary Behaviour in Children

PubMed Central

Katapally, Tarun Reddy; Rainham, Daniel; Muhajarine, Nazeem

2016-01-01

With emerging evidence indicating that independent of physical activity, sedentary behaviour (SB) can be detrimental to health, researchers are increasingly aiming to understand the influence of multiple contexts such as urban design and built environment on SB. However, weather variation, a factor that continuously interacts with all other environmental variables, has been consistently underexplored. This study investigated the influence of diverse environmental exposures (including weather variation, urban design and built environment) on SB in children. This cross-sectional observational study is part of an active living research initiative set in the Canadian prairie city of Saskatoon. Saskatoon's neighbourhoods were classified based on urban street design into grid-pattern, fractured grid-pattern and curvilinear types of neighbourhoods. Diverse environmental exposures were measured including, neighbourhood built environment, and neighbourhood and household socioeconomic environment. Actical accelerometers were deployed between April and June 2010 (spring-summer) to derive SB of 331 10–14 year old children in 25 one week cycles. Each cycle of accelerometry was conducted on a different cohort of children within the total sample. Accelerometer data were matched with localized weather patterns derived from Environment Canada weather data. Multilevel modeling using Hierarchical Linear and Non-linear Modeling software was conducted by factoring in weather variation to depict the influence of diverse environmental exposures on SB. Both weather variation and urban design played a significant role in SB. After factoring in weather variation, it was observed that children living in grid-pattern neighbourhoods closer to the city centre (with higher diversity of destinations) were less likely to be sedentary. This study demonstrates a methodology that could be replicated to integrate geography-specific weather patterns with existing cross-sectional accelerometry data to understand the influence of urban design and built environment on SB in children. PMID:29546188

A synoptic climatology of desert dust deposition to the alpine snowpack in the San Juan Mountains, Colorado, U.S.A.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McBride, K.; Painter, T.; Landry, C.

2005-12-01

Currently, collaborative research is underway in the San Juan Mountains to study the radiative and hydrologic effects of desert dust deposits in alpine snow. The component described here will present preliminary results of the development of a synoptic climatology for winter and spring dust deposition to the alpine snowpack in the San Juan Mountains of southwest Colorado. An understanding of the climatology of dust deposition events will improve our capacity to infer the temporal persistence and magnitude of dust deposition and ultimately its effect on hydrologic and ecological processes in the San Juan Mountains. We use the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model to determine back and forward trajectories of air parcels. The input data were collected at the Putney Data site (3757 m) which has been in use for over 30 years and provides 'free air' wind data as well as ridge crest air temperatures and humidity. Putney lies 2 km SE of the Swamp Angel Study Plot, east of US Highway 550 at Red Mountain Pass. The Swamp Angel Study Plot is one of two extensively instrumented energy balance and radiation sites used in the study and operated by the Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies (CSAS). STILT outputs 3-dimensional probability distributions that describe the potential source regions for air parcels reaching the San Juan Mountains at known times of dust deposition. We analyze 11 dust deposition events that have been documented in snow in the San Juan Mountains or Elk Range of Colorado. One isolated dust event was documented in 1999 in the Elk Range. Subsequently, we have documented the dust deposition events in winters and springs of 2003, 2004, and 2005 in the San Juan Mountains. 2003 and 2004 experienced 3 dust events each but in 2003 the events came in February and April, whereas in 2004 the events came in late April and mid-May. In 2005, of the 4 dust events, the first came in late March, the second and third in early April, and the fourth in early May. There are many similarities in trajectory patterns with some of these events. Preliminary analysis displays a few weather patterns bringing dust into the San Juan Mountains. The source of the dust will more than likely be from several locations with entrainment from source regions in SE Utah, N and NE Arizona, and extreme NW New Mexico. Moreover, winter and spring dust events may include intercontinental transport of dust from Asia.

Marine Air Penetration: The Effect of Synoptic-scale Change on Regional Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Ullrich, P. A.

2016-12-01

Marine air penetration (MAP) around the California San Francisco Bay Delta region has a pronounced impact on local temperature and air quality, and is highly correlated with inland wind penetration and hence wind power generation. Observational MAP criteria are defined based on the 900hPa across-shore wind speed greater than or equal to 3m/s at the Oakland radiosonde station, and a surface temperature difference greater than or equal to 7 degrees Celsius between two California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) stations at Fresno, CA and Lodi, CA. This choice reflects marine cooling of Lodi, and was found to be highly correlated with inland specific humidity and breeze front activity. The observational MAP criteria were tuned based on small biases from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) to selected MAP days from CFSR, to identify synoptic-scale indicators associated with MAP events. A multivariate logistic regression model was constructed based on the selected five synoptic indicators from CFSR and demonstrated good model performance. Two synoptic-scale patterns were identified and analyzed out of the 32 categories from the regression model, suggesting a strong influence from the off-shore trough and the inland thermal ridge on MAP events. Future projection of MAP events included the 21st century Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and Variable resolution in the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM). Both showed no statistically significant trend associated with MAP events through the end of this century under both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5.

Repeat synoptic sampling reveals drivers of change in carbon and nutrient chemistry of Arctic catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarnetske, J. P.; Abbott, B. W.; Bowden, W. B.; Iannucci, F.; Griffin, N.; Parker, S.; Pinay, G.; Aanderud, Z.

2017-12-01

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nutrients, and other solute concentrations are increasing in rivers across the Arctic. Two hypotheses have been proposed to explain these trends: 1. distributed, top-down permafrost degradation, and 2. discrete, point-source delivery of DOC and nutrients from permafrost collapse features (thermokarst). While long-term monitoring at a single station cannot discriminate between these mechanisms, synoptic sampling of multiple points in the stream network could reveal the spatial structure of solute sources. In this context, we sampled carbon and nutrient chemistry three times over two years in 119 subcatchments of three distinct Arctic catchments (North Slope, Alaska). Subcatchments ranged from 0.1 to 80 km2, and included three distinct types of Arctic landscapes - mountainous, tundra, and glacial-lake catchments. We quantified the stability of spatial patterns in synoptic water chemistry and analyzed high-frequency time series from the catchment outlets across the thaw season to identify source areas for DOC, nutrients, and major ions. We found that variance in solute concentrations between subcatchments collapsed at spatial scales between 1 to 20 km2, indicating a continuum of diffuse- and point-source dynamics, depending on solute and catchment characteristics (e.g. reactivity, topography, vegetation, surficial geology). Spatially-distributed mass balance revealed conservative transport of DOC and nitrogen, and indicates there may be strong in-stream retention of phosphorus, providing a network-scale confirmation of previous reach-scale studies in these Arctic catchments. Overall, we present new approaches to analyzing synoptic data for change detection and quantification of ecohydrological mechanisms in ecosystems in the Arctic and beyond.

Extreme fog events in Poland with respect to circulation conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ustrnul, Z.; Czekierda, D.; Wypych, A.

2010-09-01

Fog is a phenomenon which belongs to a group of so-called hydrometeorites and, according to the different dictionaries, it is a suspension of water droplets or ice crystals in the ground layer of the air that impairs visibility in the horizontal direction below 1 km. The phenomenon of fog, although much less dynamic or violent than other extreme phenomena, such as thunderstorms or hail, is equally dangerous and brings about huge social and economic complications. Land and air transportation suffer and fog may sometimes leads to a complete crippling of the whole economy in an area where fog occurs. The main objective of the study is determination of the circulation types bringing extreme fog events in Poland. The duration of fog at each meteorological station was considered as the main input data originated from 54 synoptic stations located across the country. The mentioned data series cover the period of 56 years (1951-2006). The occurrence of fog depends on meteorological conditions caused to a large extent by a given synoptic situation and local terrain conditions. In this study, according to its objectives, only circulation conditions are taken into consideration. These have been described by 5 different circulation classifications (Grosswetterlagen, Litynski, Osuchowska-Klein, Niedzwiedz and Ustrnul). Situations when this phenomenon occurred across a large part of the country were taken into detailed consideration. Special attention was paid to fog coverage during 24-hour periods. In this work, in light of certain doubts about the homogeneity of the observation material available, the intensity of fog was not included, as it requires additional and very tedious analysis. In the first step all cases of fog during the 1966-2006 study period which lasted 24 hours at more than 10 of the considered weather stations, i.e: at least 5 stations have been considered. As expected, in most cases, either a centre of a classical high pressure system or a high pressure wedge prevailed over Poland. In many cases, the dominance of baric patterns with advection from the eastern or southern sectors can be observed. Only in a few cases does a type with advection from the western sector come into play. In summary, it can be stated that intensive extreme fog of long duration occurred first of all in high pressure non-advective situations or along with weak advection, mainly from the southern or eastern direction. This statement, however, is not revolutionary. It simply confirms that the most troublesome of fog types is the radiation type, and can cover all of Poland at the same time and last up to several days. The study contains detailed meteorological-synoptic analyses of the most extreme events during the whole investigated period.

Characterizing the Influence of the General Circulation on Marine Boundary Layer Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rozendaal, Margaret A.; Rossow, William B.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The seasonal and intraseasonal variability of boundary layer cloud in the subtropical eastern oceans are studied using combined data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis. Spectral analysis reveals that most of the time variability of cloud properties occurs on seasonal to annual time scales. The variance decreases one to two orders of magnitude for each decade of time scale decrease, indicating that daily to monthly time scales have smaller, but non-negligible variability. The length of these dominant time scales suggests that the majority of the variability is influenced by the general circulation and its interaction with boundary layer turbulence, rather than a product of boundary layer turbulence alone. Previous datasets have lacked the necessary resolution in either time or in space to properly characterize variability on synoptic scales; this is remedied by using global satellite-retrieved cloud properties. We characterize the intraseasonal subtropical cloud variability in both hemispheres and in different seasons. In addition to cloud fraction, we examine variability of cloud optical thickness - cloud top pressure frequency distributions. Despite the large concentration of research on the variability of Northern Hemisphere (NH) regions during summer, it is noted that the largest amplitude intraseasonal variability in the NH regions occurs during local winter. The effect of intraseasonal variability on the calculation and interpretation of seasonal results is investigated. Decreases in seasonally averaged cloud cover, optical thickness and cloud top pressure from the May-through-September season to the November-through-March season are most apparent in the NH regions. Further analysis indicates that these changes are due to an increase in frequency, but a decrease in the persistence of synoptic events. In addition, changes in cloud top pressure and optical thickness characteristics from the summer to winter seasons indicate that the NH subtropics undergo a change in dynamic regime with season. This change appears in the cloud fields as a shift from the more commonly seen lower-altitude, thicker optical thickness clouds to higher-altitude, thinner clouds. The latter cloud-type is associated with the lower sea level pressure, upward vertical velocity phase of the synoptic wave. Intraseasonal changes in cloud properties in the Southern Hemisphere and NH summer are much smaller in amplitude. Although they also appear to be linked to changes in the large-scale dynamics, similarly to NH winter variations, the relationships are more ambiguous due to the small amplitudes and longer time scales. We attempt to interpret some of these relationships using the results of the Betts and Ridgway (1989) box model. However, these results cannot consistently explain the patterns when results from all regions are considered, implying that this model may not adequately explain all the processes involved in the variability.

Depth-Related Changes in Community Structure of Culturable Mineral Weathering Bacteria and in Weathering Patterns Caused by Them along Two Contrasting Soil Profiles

PubMed Central

Huang, Jing; Xi, Jun; Huang, Zhi; Wang, Qi; Zhang, Zhen-Dong

2014-01-01

Bacteria play important roles in mineral weathering and soil formation. However, few reports of mineral weathering bacteria inhabiting subsurfaces of soil profiles have been published, raising the question of whether the subsurface weathering bacteria are fundamentally distinct from those in surface communities. To address this question, we isolated and characterized mineral weathering bacteria from two contrasting soil profiles with respect to their role in the weathering pattern evolution, their place in the community structure, and their depth-related changes in these two soil profiles. The effectiveness and pattern of bacterial mineral weathering were different in the two profiles and among the horizons within the respective profiles. The abundance of highly effective mineral weathering bacteria in the Changshu profile was significantly greater in the deepest horizon than in the upper horizons, whereas in the Yanting profile it was significantly greater in the upper horizons than in the deeper horizons. Most of the mineral weathering bacteria from the upper horizons of the Changshu profile and from the deeper horizons of the Yanting profile significantly acidified the culture media in the mineral weathering process. The proportion of siderophore-producing bacteria in the Changshu profile was similar in all horizons except in the Bg2 horizon, whereas the proportion of siderophore-producing bacteria in the Yanting profile was higher in the upper horizons than in the deeper horizons. Both profiles existed in different highly depth-specific culturable mineral weathering community structures. The depth-related changes in culturable weathering communities were primarily attributable to minor bacterial groups rather than to a change in the major population structure. PMID:24077700

Contemporary Model Fidelity over the Maritime Continent: Examination of the Diurnal Cycle, Synoptic, Intraseasonal and Seasonal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baranowski, D.; Waliser, D. E.; Jiang, X.

2016-12-01

One of the key challenges in subseasonal weather forecasting is the fidelity in representing the propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) across the Maritime Continent (MC). In reality both propagating and non-propagating MJO events are observed, but in numerical forecast the latter group largely dominates. For this study, comprehensive model performances are evaluated using metrics that utilize the mean precipitation pattern and the amplitude and phase of the diurnal cycle, with a particular focus on the linkage between a model's local MC variability and its fidelity in representing propagation of the MJO and equatorial Kelvin waves across the MC. Subseasonal to seasonal variability of mean precipitation and its diurnal cycle in 20 year long climate simulations from over 20 general circulation models (GCMs) is examined to benchmark model performance. Our results show that many models struggle to represent the precipitation pattern over complex Maritime Continent terrain. Many models show negative biases of mean precipitation and amplitude of its diurnal cycle; these biases are often larger over land than over ocean. Furthermore, only a handful of models realistically represent the spatial variability of the phase of the diurnal cycle of precipitation. Models tend to correctly simulate the timing of the diurnal maximum of precipitation over ocean during local solar time morning, but fail to acknowledge influence of the land, with the timing of the maximum of precipitation there occurring, unrealistically, at the same time as over ocean. The day-to-day and seasonal variability of the mean precipitation follows observed patterns, but is often unrealistic for the diurnal cycle amplitude. The intraseasonal variability of the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of precipitation is mainly driven by model's ability (or lack of) to produce eastward propagating MJO-like signal. Our results show that many models tend to decrease apparent air-sea contrast in the mean precipitation and diurnal cycle of precipitation patterns over the Maritime Continent. As a result, the complexity of those patterns is heavily smoothed, to such an extent in some models that the Maritime Continent features and imprint is almost unrecognizable relative to the eastern Indian Ocean or Western Pacific.

Instability and its relation to precipitation over the Eastern Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iturrioz, I.; Hernández, E.; Ribera, P.; Queralt, S.

2007-04-01

Synoptic situations producing rainfall at four rawinsonde observatories at eastern Spain are classified as stratiform or convective depending on dynamic and thermodynamic instability indices. Two daily radiosonde and daily-accumulated precipitation data from four observatories in Eastern Spain are used: Madrid-Barajas (MB), Murcia (MU), Palma de Mallorca (PA) and Zaragoza (ZA). We calculated two thermodynamic instability indices from radiosonde data: CAPE and LI. Likewise, from ERA40 reanalysis data we have calculated the Q vector divergence over the Iberian Peninsula and Balearic Islands, as a parameter describing dynamical instability. Synoptic situations producing rainfall were classified as convective or stratiform, satisfying a criterion based on the values of dynamic and thermodynamic indices at each observatory. It is observed that the number of days with stratiform precipitation related to the total number of precipitation days follows a consistent annual pattern.

Characterizing synoptic and cloud variability in the northern atlantic using self-organizing maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fish, Carly

Low-level clouds have a significant influence on the Earth's radiation budget and it is thus imperative to understand their behavior within the marine boundary layer (MBL). The cloud properties in the Northeast Atlantic region are highly variable in space and time and are a research focus for many atmospheric scientists. Characterizing the synoptic patterns in the region through the implementation of self-organizing maps (SOMs) enables a climatological grasp of cloud and atmospheric fields. ERA -- Interim and MODIS provide the platform to explore the variability in the Northeast Atlantic for over 30 years of data. Station data comes from CAP -- MBL on Graciosa Island in the Azores, which lies in a strong gradient of cloud and other atmospheric fields, offer an opportunity to incorporate an observational aspect for the years of 2009 and 2010.

Balancing Flood Risk and Water Supply in California: Policy Search Combining Short-Term Forecast Ensembles and Groundwater Recharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, J. D.; Steinschneider, S.; Nayak, M. A.

2017-12-01

Short-term weather forecasts are not codified into the operating policies of federal, multi-purpose reservoirs, despite their potential to improve service provision. This is particularly true for facilities that provide flood protection and water supply, since the potential flood damages are often too severe to accept the risk of inaccurate forecasts. Instead, operators must maintain empty storage capacity to mitigate flood risk, even if the system is currently in drought, as occurred in California from 2012-2016. This study investigates the potential for forecast-informed operating rules to improve water supply efficiency while maintaining flood protection, combining state-of-the-art weather hindcasts with a novel tree-based policy optimization framework. We hypothesize that forecasts need only accurately predict the occurrence of a storm, rather than its intensity, to be effective in regions like California where wintertime, synoptic-scale storms dominate the flood regime. We also investigate the potential for downstream groundwater injection to improve the utility of forecasts. These hypotheses are tested in a case study of Folsom Reservoir on the American River. Because available weather hindcasts are relatively short (10-20 years), we propose a new statistical framework to develop synthetic forecasts to assess the risk associated with inaccurate forecasts. The efficiency of operating policies is tested across a range of scenarios that include varying forecast skill and additional groundwater pumping capacity. Results suggest that the combined use of groundwater storage and short-term weather forecasts can substantially improve the tradeoff between water supply and flood control objectives in large, multi-purpose reservoirs in California.

Weather And Death On Mount Everest: An Analysis Of The Into Thin Air Storm.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, G. W. K.; Semple, John L.

2006-04-01

Scientific interest in Mount Everest has been largely focused on the physiology of hypoxia caused by the summit's low barometric pressure. Although weather is recognized as a significant risk for climbers on the mountain, it has not been extensively studied. In this paper, we reconstruct the meteorological conditions associated with the deadly outbreak of high-impact weather on Mount Everest that occurred in May 1996 and was the subject of the best-selling book Into Thin Air. The authors show that during this event, two jet streaks—an upper-level short-wave trough and an intrusion of stratospheric air into the upper troposphere—were present in the vicinity of Mount Everest. Meanwhile, in the lower troposphere, there was convergence of water vapor transport from both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal into the region to the south of Mount Everest. The authors propose that the ageostrophic circulation associated with the upper-level features resulted in a region of large-scale ascent near Mount Everest that, in combination with the anomalous availability of moisture in the region, triggered convective activity. The resulting high-impact weather trapped over 20 climbers on Mount Everest's exposed upper slopes leading to the deaths of 8. These synoptic-scale characteristics provide some expectation of predicting life-threatening high-altitude storms in the Himalayas. In addition, the authors argue that the falling barometric pressure and the presence of ozone-rich stratospheric air that occurred near the summit of Mount Everest during this event could have shifted a coping climber from a state of brittle tolerance to physiological distress.

Winter QPF Sensitivities to Snow Parameterizations and Comparisons to NASA CloudSat Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molthan, Andrew; Haynes, John M.; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Lapenta, William M.

2009-01-01

Steady increases in computing power have allowed for numerical weather prediction models to be initialized and run at high spatial resolution, permitting a transition from larger scale parameterizations of the effects of clouds and precipitation to the simulation of specific microphysical processes and hydrometeor size distributions. Although still relatively coarse in comparison to true cloud resolving models, these high resolution forecasts (on the order of 4 km or less) have demonstrated value in the prediction of severe storm mode and evolution and are being explored for use in winter weather events . Several single-moment bulk water microphysics schemes are available within the latest release of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model suite, including the NASA Goddard Cumulus Ensemble, which incorporate some assumptions in the size distribution of a small number of hydrometeor classes in order to predict their evolution, advection and precipitation within the forecast domain. Although many of these schemes produce similar forecasts of events on the synoptic scale, there are often significant details regarding precipitation and cloud cover, as well as the distribution of water mass among the constituent hydrometeor classes. Unfortunately, validating data for cloud resolving model simulations are sparse. Field campaigns require in-cloud measurements of hydrometeors from aircraft in coordination with extensive and coincident ground based measurements. Radar remote sensing is utilized to detect the spatial coverage and structure of precipitation. Here, two radar systems characterize the structure of winter precipitation for comparison to equivalent features within a forecast model: a 3 GHz, Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) based in Omaha, Nebraska, and the 94 GHz NASA CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar, a spaceborne instrument and member of the afternoon or "A-Train" of polar orbiting satellites tasked with cataloguing global cloud characteristics. Each system provides a unique perspective. The WSR-88D operates in a surveillance mode, sampling cloud volumes of Rayleigh scatterers where reflectivity is proportional to the sixth moment of the size distribution of equivalent spheres. The CloudSat radar provides enhanced sensitivity to smaller cloud ice crystals aloft, as well as consistent vertical profiles along each orbit. However, CloudSat reflectivity signatures are complicated somewhat by resonant Mie scattering effects and significant attenuation in the presence of cloud or rain water. Here, both radar systems are applied to a case of light to moderate snowfall within the warm frontal zone of a cold season, synoptic scale storm. Radars allow for an evaluation of the accuracy of a single-moment scheme in replicating precipitation structures, based on the bulk statistical properties of precipitation as suggested by reflectivity signatures.

Meteorological conditions for the triggering of landslides in Asturias (NW Spain). A preliminary analysis of synoptic patterns.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valenzuela, Pablo; Iglesias, Miguel; José Domínguez-Cuesta, María; Mora García, Manuel Antonio

2017-04-01

Asturias is one of the most landslide prone areas in the NW of Spain, where those phenomena cause every year large economic loses and sometimes personal injuries or fatalities. Most of landslides take place during intense rainfall events, which point out precipitation as the main triggering factor. Regional climate is characterized by average annual precipitation and temperature of 960 mm and 13.3°C respectively. Rainfall distribution throughout the year allows the definition of a humid period between October and May, characterized by the succession of frontal systems, and a considerable dry period between June and September, when heavy short storm episodes are usual. BAPA landslide database (http://geol.uniovi.es/BAPA) gathers more than 500 landslide records located with high temporal reliability for eight hydrological years between October 2008 and September 2016. Eight periods with a high concentration of landslides and significant precipitation records have been selected for the study within this time span. Meteorological conditions which took place during each period have been characterized by using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the EEUU (NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis 1) through the free software Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS). Seven parameters have been used to characterize each synoptic situation: (i) 500 hPa temperature, (ii) 500 hPa geopotential height, (iii) 850 hPa temperature, (iv) 850 hPa geopotential height, (v) 925hPa wind, (vi) specific humidity, and (vii) sea level pressure. The final goal is to establish a conceptual model of the most frequent synoptic meteorological patterns which generate rainfall-triggered landslide events in Asturias during the humid and dry periods.

Weathering Patterns of Forensic Biomarker Compounds and PAHs in Coastal Marsh Sediment Samples since the 2010 Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overton, E. B.; Meyer, B.; Miles, S.; Olson, G.; Adhikari, P. L.

2016-02-01

It has been well established that the composition of oil, when spilled into the marine environment, undergoes substantial changes caused by weathering. The general sequence of this compositional change begins with straight chain alkanes (the fastest to degrade), followed by low molecular weight branched and cyclic alkanes and, finally the aromatics. Most resistant to weathering are the higher molecular weight cyclic and branched alkanes (i.e., the "forensic biomarker compounds" such as the hopanes and steranes) and tri-aromatic ringed steroids. The composition of these biomarker compounds is particularly resistant to change because they are not affected by evaporative weathering, are not water soluble, and are not readily degraded by microbial and/or photo-oxidation. However, after extensive time in the environment, being subjected to numerous weathering factors, biomarker compositional patterns are beginning to exhibit significant changes. This presentation will describe the general weathering patterns of petroleum residues in sediment samples collected from marsh areas of coastal Louisiana over a five year period. Particular attention will focus on compositional changes that have been observed in the steranes and diasteranes compounds that traditionally have been considered the most resistant to compositional changes due to weathering.

Schneefernerhaus as a mountain research station for clouds and turbulence - Part 1: Flow conditions and large-scale turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Risius, S.; Xu, H.; Di Lorenzo, F.; Xi, H.; Siebert, H.; Shaw, R. A.; Bodenschatz, E.

2015-01-01

Cloud measurements are usually carried out with airborne campaigns, which are expensive and are limited by temporal duration and weather conditions. Ground based measurements at high-altitude research stations therefore play a complementary role in cloud study. Using the meteorological data (wind speed, direction, temperature, humidity, visibility, etc.) collected by the German Weather Service (DWD) from 2000 to 2012 and turbulence measurements recorded by multiple ultrasonic sensors (sampled at 10 Hz) in 2010, we show that the Umweltforschungsstation Schneefernerhaus (UFS) located just below the peak of Zugspitze in the German Alps, at a height of 2650 m, is a well-suited station for cloud-turbulence research. The wind at UFS is dominantly in the east-west direction and nearly horizontal. During the summer time (July and August) the UFS is immersed in warm clouds about 25% of the time. The clouds are either from convection originating in the valley in the east, or associated with synoptic-scale weather systems typically advected from the west. Air turbulence, as measured from the second and third order velocity structure functions that exhibit well-developed inertial ranges, possesses Taylor microscale Reynolds numbers up to 104, with the most probable value at ~ 3000. In spite of the complex topography, the turbulence appears to be nearly as isotropic as many laboratory flows when evaluated on the so called "Lumley-triangle".

The Tracking Meteogram, an AWIPS II Tool for Time-Series Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burks, Jason Eric; Sperow, Ken

2015-01-01

A new tool has been developed for the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) II through collaboration between NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) and the NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL). Referred to as the "Tracking Meteogram", the tool aids NWS forecasters in assessing meteorological parameters associated with moving phenomena. The tool aids forecasters in severe weather situations by providing valuable satellite and radar derived trends such as cloud top cooling rates, radial velocity couplets, reflectivity, and information from ground-based lightning networks. The Tracking Meteogram tool also aids in synoptic and mesoscale analysis by tracking parameters such as the deepening of surface low pressure systems, changes in surface or upper air temperature, and other properties. The tool provides a valuable new functionality and demonstrates the flexibility and extensibility of the NWS AWIPS II architecture. In 2014, the operational impact of the tool was formally evaluated through participation in the NOAA/NWS Operations Proving Ground (OPG), a risk reduction activity to assess performance and operational impact of new forecasting concepts, tools, and applications. Performance of the Tracking Meteogram Tool during the OPG assessment confirmed that it will be a valuable asset to the operational forecasters. This presentation reviews development of the Tracking Meteogram tool, performance and feedback acquired during the OPG activity, and future goals for continued support and extension to other application areas.

U.S. Naval Weather Service Command. Summary of Synoptic Meteorological Observations, North American Coastal Marine Areas - Revised. Pacific Coast. Volume 6. Area 36 - Point Arena, Area 37 - Eureka, Area 38 - Cape Blanco, Area 39 - Newport, Area 40 - Astoria, Area 41 - Vancouver Island SW

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-05-01

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Influence of Projected Changes in North American Snow Cover Extent on Mid-Latitude Cyclone Progression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clare, R. M.; Desai, A. R.; Martin, J. E.; Notaro, M.; Vavrus, S. J.

2017-12-01

It has long been hypothesized that snow cover and snow extent have an influence on the development or steering of synoptic mid-latitude cyclones (MLCs). Rydzik and Desai (2014) showed a robust statistical relationship among snow cover extent, generation of low-level baroclinicity, and MLC tracks. Though snow cover extent is highly variable year to year, the changing global climate is expected to continue an already observed pattern of poleward retreat of mean snow cover in North America, particularly in late winter and spring. For this experiment, large ensemble simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) were forced with output from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to test the effect contributed solely by snow cover and the projected effects of a changing climate. Our experiment induces an adjustment to the extent of snow cover in North America according to CESM RCP 8.5 projections for each decade from 2020 to 2100 before and during several cases of MLCs moving east across the Great Plains near the snow line. To evaluate mechanisms of pre-existing and current snow influence on MLCs, model cases are started with snow line adjustment occurring from three days prior up to the storm's arrival over the Great Plains. We demonstrate that snow cover changes do alter MLC intensity and path via modification of low-level potential vorticity.

Advancing the LSST Operations Simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, Abhijit; Ridgway, S. T.; Cook, K. H.; Delgado, F.; Chandrasekharan, S.; Petry, C. E.; Operations Simulator Group

2013-01-01

The Operations Simulator for the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST; http://lsst.org) allows the planning of LSST observations that obey explicit science driven observing specifications, patterns, schema, and priorities, while optimizing against the constraints placed by design-specific opto-mechanical system performance of the telescope facility, site specific conditions (including weather and seeing), as well as additional scheduled and unscheduled downtime. A simulation run records the characteristics of all observations (e.g., epoch, sky position, seeing, sky brightness) in a MySQL database, which can be queried for any desired purpose. Derivative information digests of the observing history database are made with an analysis package called Simulation Survey Tools for Analysis and Reporting (SSTAR). Merit functions and metrics have been designed to examine how suitable a specific simulation run is for several different science applications. This poster reports recent work which has focussed on an architectural restructuring of the code that will allow us to a) use "look-ahead" strategies that avoid cadence sequences that cannot be completed due to observing constraints; and b) examine alternate optimization strategies, so that the most efficient scheduling algorithm(s) can be identified and used: even few-percent efficiency gains will create substantive scientific opportunity. The enhanced simulator will be used to assess the feasibility of desired observing cadences, study the impact of changing science program priorities, and assist with performance margin investigations of the LSST system.

Air pollution in Polish cities during January 2017 - an episode study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durka, Pawel; Kaminski, Jacek W.; Struzewska, Joanna

2017-04-01

Poor air quality is a health issue in Poland, especially during winter. Six cities in Poland are in the top 10 and 33 cities are in the top 50 most polluted cities in Europe. In the first days of January 2017, there was a drastic change in the weather patterns over Central Europe. Temperatures dropped below -20oC in only a couple of days with calm wind conditions. Meteorological soundings showed inversions up to hundreds of meters above the surface. In such conditions PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations were unusually high. Thresholds were exceeded in most of the cities in Poland. In some of the cities PM concentrations were very high: reaching 1600 µg/m3 in Rybnik, 1300 µg/m3 in Zabrze, 1000 µg/m3 in Gliwice, 700 µg/m3 in Katowice. Most likely the main source of the pollution event were domestic emissions as well as traffic emissions. High concentration values were due to the stratification of the atmosphere. Nearly all cities issued smog alerts. The majority of the cities introduced free public transportation and schools were closed. We will show the evolution of this episode in the selected cities for the period when the highest concentrations measured and forecasted - from 7 to 11 January 2017. The synoptic situation for the episode will be discussed.

Causes and Model Skill of the Persistent Intense Rainfall and Flooding in Paraguay during the Austral Summer 2015-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doss-Gollin, J.; Munoz, A. G.; Pastén, M.

2017-12-01

During the austral summer 2015-16 severe flooding displaced over 150,000 people on the Paraguay River system in Paraguay, Argentina, and Southern Brazil. This flooding was out of phase with the typical seasonal cycle of the Paraguay River, and was driven by repeated intense rainfall events in the Lower Paraguay River basin. Using a weather typing approach within a diagnostic framework, we show that enhanced moisture inflow from the low-level jet and local convergence associated with baroclinic systems favored the development of mesoscale convective activity and enhanced precipitation. The observed circulation patterns were made more likely by the cross-timescale interactions of multiple climate mechanisms including the strong, mature El Niño event and an active Madden-Julien Oscillation in phases four and five. We also perform a comparison of the rainfall predictability using seasonal forecasts from the Latin American Observatory of Climate Events (OLE2) and sub-seasonal forecasts produced by the ECMWF. We find that the model output precipitation field exhibited limited skill at lead times beyond the synoptic timescale, but that a Model Output Statistics (MOS) approach, in which the leading principal components of the observed rainfall field are regressed on the leading principal components of model-simulated rainfall fields, substantially improves spatial representation of rainfall forecasts. Possible implications for flood preparedness are briefly discussed.

The relationship of marine stratus to synoptic conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wylie, Donald P.; Hinton, Barry; Grimm, Peter; Kloesel, Kevin A.

1990-01-01

The marine stratus which persistently covered most of the eastern Pacific Ocean, had large clear areas during the FIRE Intensive Field Operations (IFO) in 1987. Clear zones formed inside the large oceanic cloud mass on almost every day during the IFO. The location and size of the clear zones varied from day to day implying that they were related to dynamic weather conditions and not to oceanic conditions. Forecasting of cloud cover for aircraft operations during the IFO was directed towards predicting when and where the clear and broken zones would form inside the large marine stratus cloud mass. The clear zones often formed to the northwest of the operations area and moved towards it. However, on some days the clear zones appeared to form during the day in the operations area as part of the diurnal cloud burn off. The movement of the clear zones from day to day were hard to follow because of the large diurnal changes in cloud cover. Clear and broken cloud zones formed during the day only to distort in shape and fill during the following night. The field forecasters exhibited some skill in predicting when the clear and broken cloud patterns would form in the operations area. They based their predictions on the analysis and simulations of the models run by NOAA's Numeric Meteorological Center. How the atmospheric conditions analyzed by one NOAA/NMC model related to the cloud cover is discussed.

Influence of climate change on productivity of American White Pelicans, Pelecanus erythrorhynchos

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sovada, Marsha A.; Igl, Lawrence D.; Pietz, Pamela J.; Bartos, Alisa J.

2014-01-01

In the past decade, severe weather and West Nile virus were major causes of chick mortality at American white pelican (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos) colonies in the northern plains of North America. At one of these colonies, Chase Lake National Wildlife Refuge in North Dakota, spring arrival by pelicans has advanced approximately 16 days over a period of 44 years (1965–2008). We examined phenology patterns of pelicans and timing of inclement weather through the 44-year period, and evaluated the consequence of earlier breeding relative to weather-related chick mortality. We found severe weather patterns to be random through time, rather than concurrently shifting with the advanced arrival of pelicans. In recent years, if nest initiations had followed the phenology patterns of 1965 (i.e., nesting initiated 16 days later), fewer chicks likely would have died from weather-related causes. That is, there would be fewer chicks exposed to severe weather during a vulnerable transition period that occurs between the stage when chicks are being brooded by adults and the stage when chicks from multiple nests become part of a thermally protective crèche.

The structure and large-scale organization of extreme cold waves over the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Zuowei; Black, Robert X.; Deng, Yi

2017-12-01

Extreme cold waves (ECWs) occurring over the conterminous United States (US) are studied through a systematic identification and documentation of their local synoptic structures, associated large-scale meteorological patterns (LMPs), and forcing mechanisms external to the US. Focusing on the boreal cool season (November-March) for 1950‒2005, a hierarchical cluster analysis identifies three ECW patterns, respectively characterized by cold surface air temperature anomalies over the upper midwest (UM), northwestern (NW), and southeastern (SE) US. Locally, ECWs are synoptically organized by anomalous high pressure and northerly flow. At larger scales, the UM LMP features a zonal dipole in the mid-tropospheric height field over North America, while the NW and SE LMPs each include a zonal wave train extending from the North Pacific across North America into the North Atlantic. The Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) in general simulates the three ECW patterns quite well and successfully reproduces the observed enhancements in the frequency of their associated LMPs. La Niña and the cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) favor the occurrence of NW ECWs, while the warm PDO phase, low Arctic sea ice extent and high Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE) are associated with elevated SE-ECW frequency. Additionally, high Eurasian SCE is linked to increases in the occurrence likelihood of UM ECWs.

Weather types and strokes in the Augsburg region (Southern Germany)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Christoph; Ertl, Michael; Giemsa, Esther; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Naumann, Markus; Seubert, Stefanie

2017-04-01

Strokes are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide and the main reason for longterm care dependency in Germany. Concerning the economical impact on patients and healthcare systems it is of particular importance to prevent this disease as well as to improve the outcome of the affected persons. Beside the primary well-known risk factors like hypertension, cigarette smoking, physical inactivity and others, also weather seems to have pronounced influence on the occurrence and frequency of strokes. Previous studies most often focused on effects of singular meteorological variables like ambient air temperature, air pressure or humidity. An advanced approach is to link the entire suite of daily weather elements classified to air mass- or weather types to cerebrovascular morbidity or mortality. In a joint pilot study bringing together climatologists, environmental scientists and physicians from the University of Augsburg and the clinical centre Augsburg, we analysed relationships between singular meteorological parameters as well as combined weather effects (e.g. weather types) and strokes in the urban area of Augsburg and the surrounding rural region. A total of 17.501 stroke admissions to Neurological Clinic and Clinical Neurophysiology at Klinikum Augsburg between 2006 and 2015 are classified to either "ischaemic" (16.354) or "haemorrhagic" (1.147) subtype according to etiology (based on the International Classification of Diseases - 10th Revision). Spearman correlations between daily frequencies of ischaemic and haemorrhagic strokes and singular atmospheric parameters (T, Tmin, Tmax, air pressure, humidity etc.) measured at the DWD (German weather service) meteorological station at Augsburg Muehlhausen are rather low. However, higher correlations are achieved when considering sub-samples of "homogenous weather conditions" derived from synoptic circulation classifications: e.g. within almost all of 10 types arising from a classification of central European mean sea level pressure fields into "Großwettertypes" (Beck 2000) the relationships between meteorological variables and stroke frequencies are increasing. Mainly temperature variables (Tmin, Tmax, Tmean) appear to be important particularly in winter and summer. Moreover distinct correlations of similar magnitude are obtained with other variables like wind speed or precipitation for specific weather types (e.g. westerly type). In how far these initial findings do really point to additional health impacts beyond temperature effects is subject of ongoing work.

Agricultural Drought Transition Periods In the United States Corn Belt Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiraldi, Nicholas J.

Agricultural drought in the U.S. Corn Belt region (CBR) has tremendous global socioeconomic implications. Unfortunately, the weather and climate factors that contribute to transition events toward or away from such droughts, and how well those factors are predicted, are poorly understood. This dissertation focuses on the atmospheric circulation signals associated with agricultural drought transitions periods in the CBR that evolve over 20 and 60 days, and how well those circulation signals are predicted on seasonal to sub-seasonal time scales. Results show that amplification of an intraseasonal Rossby wave train across the Pacific Ocean into North America, which occurs coincident with intraseasonal tropical convection on its equatorward side, triggers these transition events, not shifts in the low frequency base state. This result is confirmed through composite analysis, trajectory analysis and a vertically integrated moisture budget. Trajectory analysis reveals similar source regions for air parcels associated with drought development and breakdown, but with a shift toward more parcels originating over the Gulf of Mexico during transitions away from drought. The primary result from the vertically integrated moisture budget demonstrates that advection and convergence of moisture on intraseasonal time scales dominates during these transitions. The primary conclusion drawn is that weather events are the primary driver of agricultural drought transitions occurring over 20 and 60 days. The seasonal to sub-seasonal hindcast dataset is used to investigate the prediction of the low frequency, intraseasonal and synoptic circulation patterns associated with 20 and 60-day drought transition periods. The forecast models assessed are the European Centre for Medium Range Prediction (ECMWF), National Center for Environment Prediction Climate Forecast System (NCEP) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). Results demonstrate that ECMWF and NCEP are not skillful in predicting the patterns associated with 20-day agricultural drought onset and decay, but have some skill during 60-day agricultural drought onset and decay events at lead F360-F480. BoM was not skillful in predicting the circulation patterns associated with either type of drought transition. Finally, a regression model is used to predict 30-day forward looking standardized precipitation anomalies in the CBR, which leverages lowpass and intraseasonal filtered geopotential height anomalies at 200 hPa as predictors. The statistical model is more skillful than climatology in predicting 1 to 30, through 27 to 57 day standardized precipitation anomalies during July, as measured by root mean square error. The regression model also is skillful in predicting the directional skew (above or below normal) of the forward looking standardized precipitation anomalies.

Study of different atmospheric environments associated to storms development in the Madeira Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couto, Flavio Tiago do

The study aims to improve the understanding about different atmospheric environments leading to the development of storms associated with heavy precipitation in Madeira Island. For this purpose, four main goals have been considered: 1) To document the synoptic and mesoscale environments associated with heavy precipitation. 2) To characterize surface precipitation patterns that affected the island during some periods of significant accumulated precipitation using numerical modelling. 3) To study the relationship between surface precipitation patterns and mesoscale environments. 4) To highlight how the PhD findings obtained in the first three goals can be translated into an operational forecast context. Concerning the large scale environment, precipitation over the island was favoured by weather systems (e.g, mesoscale convective systems and low pressure systems), as well as by the meridional transport of high amount of moisture from a structure denominated as “Atmospheric River”. The tropical origin of this moisture is underscored, however, their impact on the precipitation in Madeira was not so high during the 10 winter seasons [2002 - 2012] studied. The main factor triggering heavy precipitation events over the island is related to the local orography. The steep terrain favours orographically-induced stationary precipitation over the highlands, although maximum of precipitation at coastal region may be produced by localized blocking effect. These orographic precipitating systems presented different structures, associated with shallow and deep convection. Essentially, the study shows that the combination of airflow dynamics, moist content, and orography is the major mechanism that produces precipitation over the island. These factors together with the event duration act to define the regions of excessive precipitation. Finally, the study highlights two useful points for the operational sector, regarding the meridional water vapour transport and local effects causing significant precipitation over the Island.

Quantitative Measures of Immersion in Cloud and the Biogeography of Cloud Forests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lawton, R. O.; Nair, U. S.; Ray, D.; Regmi, A.; Pounds, J. A.; Welch, R. M.

2010-01-01

Sites described as tropical montane cloud forests differ greatly, in part because observers tend to differ in their opinion as to what constitutes frequent and prolonged immersion in cloud. This definitional difficulty interferes with hydrologic analyses, assessments of environmental impacts on ecosystems, and biogeographical analyses of cloud forest communities and species. Quantitative measurements of cloud immersion can be obtained on site, but the observations are necessarily spatially limited, although well-placed observers can examine 10 50 km of a mountain range under rainless conditions. Regional analyses, however, require observations at a broader scale. This chapter discusses remote sensing and modeling approaches that can provide quantitative measures of the spatiotemporal patterns of cloud cover and cloud immersion in tropical mountain ranges. These approaches integrate remote sensing tools of various spatial resolutions and frequencies of observation, digital elevation models, regional atmospheric models, and ground-based observations to provide measures of cloud cover, cloud base height, and the intersection of cloud and terrain. This combined approach was applied to the Monteverde region of northern Costa Rica to illustrate how the proportion of time the forest is immersed in cloud may vary spatially and temporally. The observed spatial variation was largely due to patterns of airflow over the mountains. The temporal variation reflected the diurnal rise and fall of the orographic cloud base, which was influenced in turn by synoptic weather conditions, the seasonal movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the north-easterly trade winds. Knowledge of the proportion of the time that sites are immersed in clouds should facilitate ecological comparisons and biogeographical analyses, as well as land use planning and hydrologic assessments in areas where intensive on-site work is not feasible.

Large Scale Water Vapor Sources Relative to the October 2000 Piedmont Flood

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turato, Barbara; Reale, Oreste; Siccardi, Franco

2003-01-01

Very intense mesoscale or synoptic-scale rainfall events can occasionally be observed in the Mediterranean region without any deep cyclone developing over the areas affected by precipitation. In these perplexing cases the synoptic situation can superficially look similar to cases in which very little precipitation occurs. These situations could possibly baffle the operational weather forecasters. In this article, the major precipitation event that affected Piedmont (Italy) between 13 and 16 October 2000 is investigated. This is one of the cases in which no intense cyclone was observed within the Mediterranean region at any time, only a moderate system was present, and yet exceptional rainfall and flooding occurred. The emphasis of this study is on the moisture origin and transport. Moisture and energy balances are computed on different space- and time-scales, revealing that precipitation exceeds evaporation over an area inclusive of Piedmont and the northwestern Mediterranean region, on a time-scale encompassing the event and about two weeks preceding it. This is suggestive of an important moisture contribution originating from outside the region. A synoptic and dynamic analysis is then performed to outline the potential mechanisms that could have contributed to the large-scale moisture transport. The central part of the work uses a quasi-isentropic water-vapor back trajectory technique. The moisture sources obtained by this technique are compared with the results of the balances and with the synoptic situation, to unveil possible dynamic mechanisms and physical processes involved. It is found that moisture sources on a variety of atmospheric scales contribute to this event. First, an important contribution is caused by the extratropical remnants of former tropical storm Leslie. The large-scale environment related to this system allows a significant amount of moisture to be carried towards Europe. This happens on a time- scale of about 5-15 days preceding the Piedmont event. Second, water-vapor intrusions from the African Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and evaporation from the eastern Atlantic contribute on the 2-5 day time-scale. The large-scale moist dynamics appears therefore to be one important factor enabling a moderate Mediterranean cyclone to produce heavy precipitation. Finally, local evaporation from the Mediterranean, water-vapor recycling, and orographically-induced low-level convergence enhance and concentrate the moisture over the area where heavy precipitation occurs. This happens on a 12-72 hour time-scale.

Classification and machine recognition of severe weather patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, P. P.; Burns, R. C.

1976-01-01

Forecasting and warning of severe weather conditions are treated from the vantage point of pattern recognition by machine. Pictorial patterns and waveform patterns are distinguished. Time series data on sferics are dealt with by considering waveform patterns. A severe storm patterns recognition machine is described, along with schemes for detection via cross-correlation of time series (same channel or different channels). Syntactic and decision-theoretic approaches to feature extraction are discussed. Active and decayed tornados and thunderstorms, lightning discharges, and funnels and their related time series data are studied.

North Pacific Mesoscale Coupled Air-Ocean Simulations Compared with Observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koracin, Darko; Cerovecki, Ivana; Vellore, Ramesh

2013-04-11

Executive summary The main objective of the study was to investigate atmospheric and ocean interaction processes in the western Pacific and, in particular, effects of significant ocean heat loss in the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension regions on the lower and upper atmosphere. It is yet to be determined how significant are these processes are on climate scales. The understanding of these processes led us also to development of the methodology of coupling the Weather and Research Forecasting model with the Parallel Ocean Program model for western Pacific regional weather and climate simulations. We tested NCAR-developed research software Coupler 7 formore » coupling of the WRF and POP models and assessed its usability for regional-scale applications. We completed test simulations using the Coupler 7 framework, but implemented a standard WRF model code with options for both one- and two-way mode coupling. This type of coupling will allow us to seamlessly incorporate new WRF updates and versions in the future. We also performed a long-term WRF simulation (15 years) covering the entire North Pacific as well as high-resolution simulations of a case study which included extreme ocean heat losses in the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension regions. Since the extreme ocean heat loss occurs during winter cold air outbreaks (CAO), we simulated and analyzed a case study of a severe CAO event in January 2000 in detail. We found that the ocean heat loss induced by CAOs is amplified by additional advection from mesocyclones forming on the southern part of the Japan Sea. Large scale synoptic patterns with anomalously strong anticyclone over Siberia and Mongolia, deep Aleutian Low, and the Pacific subtropical ridge are a crucial setup for the CAO. It was found that the onset of the CAO is related to the breaking of atmospheric Rossby waves and vertical transport of vorticity that facilitates meridional advection. The study also indicates that intrinsic parameterization of the surface fluxes within the WRF model needs more evaluation and analysis.« less

Exploring impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on Meteorological Forcing within the Glaciated Llanganuco Valley, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Covert, J. M.; Hellstrom, R. A.

2015-12-01

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to be the primary modulator of inter-annual weather patterns in the Andes, but its impact in the Cordillera Blanca (White Range) is not fully understood. In 2004 an autonomous sensor network (ASN) was installed in the Llanganuco Valley in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru consisting of two automatic weather stations (AWS) located at the base and upper ridge of the valley connected by four air temperature/humidity micro-loggers at equal elevation intervals. The ASN permits high resolution evaluations of the micro-scale meteorology within the valley. Twenty-four hour composites and monthly averages of wind, solar insolation, air temperature profiles, and precipitation obtained from the ASN were analyzed for the historical wet and dry seasons between the years of 2005 and 2015. The evidence suggests that teleconnections exist between eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures and meteorological forcing within the Valley. Comparisons between the two AWS units reveal similar ENSO impacts during the wet season that are not replicated in the dry season. We found that warm and cold ENSO create anomalies that appear unique to this region of the outer Tropics. Warm ENSO phases promote wetter than normal dry seasons and dryer than normal wet seasons and visa versa for cold phases of ENSO. Air temperature is strongly positively correlated to warm ENSO phases during the wet season and depends on elevation during the dry season. Insolation is negatively correlated to warm ENSO phases at higher elevations with weak positive correlation at lower elevations. We attribute observed seasonality, in part, to interactions between channeling of synoptic flow and thermally driven winds. Although the sporadic availability of data prevents definitive conclusions at this time, recent improvements in the ASN infrastructure will facilitate deeper understanding of ENSO impacts on meteorological forcing within pro-glacial valleys of the Cordillera Blanca.