Evaluating soil carbon in global climate models: benchmarking, future projections, and model drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todd-Brown, K. E.; Randerson, J. T.; Post, W. M.; Allison, S. D.

2012-12-01

The carbon cycle plays a critical role in how the climate responds to anthropogenic carbon dioxide. To evaluate how well Earth system models (ESMs) from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) represent the carbon cycle, we examined predictions of current soil carbon stocks from the historical simulation. We compared the soil and litter carbon pools from 17 ESMs with data on soil carbon stocks from the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD). We also examined soil carbon predictions for 2100 from 16 ESMs from the rcp85 (highest radiative forcing) simulation to investigate the effects of climate change on soil carbon stocks. In both analyses, we used a reduced complexity model to separate the effects of variation in model drivers from the effects of model parameters on soil carbon predictions. Drivers included NPP, soil temperature, and soil moisture, and the reduced complexity model represented one pool of soil carbon as a function of these drivers. The ESMs predicted global soil carbon totals of 500 to 2980 Pg-C, compared to 1260 Pg-C in the HWSD. This 5-fold variation in predicted soil stocks was a consequence of a 3.4-fold variation in NPP inputs and 3.8-fold variability in mean global turnover times. None of the ESMs correlated well with the global distribution of soil carbon in the HWSD (Pearson's correlation <0.40, RMSE 9-22 kg m-2). On a biome level there was a broad range of agreement between the ESMs and the HWSD. Some models predicted HWSD biome totals well (R2=0.91) while others did not (R2=0.23). All of the ESM terrestrial decomposition models are structurally similar with outputs that were well described by a reduced complexity model that included NPP and soil temperature (R2 of 0.73-0.93). However, MPI-ESM-LR outputs showed only a moderate fit to this model (R2=0.51), and CanESM2 outputs were better described by a reduced model that included soil moisture (R2=0.74), We also found a broad range in soil carbon responses to climate change predicted by the ESMs, with changes of -480 to 230 Pg-C from 2005-2100. All models that reported NPP and heterotrophic respiration showed increases in both of these processes over the simulated period. In two of the models, soils switched from a global sink for carbon to a net source. Of the remaining models, half predicted that soils were a sink for carbon throughout the time period and the other half predicted that soils were a carbon source.. Heterotrophic respiration in most of the models from 2005-2100 was well explained by a reduced complexity model dependent on soil carbon, soil temperature, and soil moisture (R2 values >0.74). However, MPI-ESM (R2=0.45) showed only moderate fit to this model. Our analysis shows that soil carbon predictions from ESMs are highly variable, with much of this variability due to model parameterization and variations in driving variables. Furthermore, our reduced complexity models show that most variation in ESM outputs can be explained by a simple one-pool model with a small number of drivers and parameters. Therefore, agreement between soil carbon predictions across models could improve substantially by reconciling differences in driving variables and the parameters that link soil carbon with environmental drivers. However it is unclear if this model agreement would reflect what is truly happening in the Earth system.

Recent Progresses in Incorporating Human Land-Water Management into Global Land Surface Models Toward Their Integration into Earth System Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pokhrel, Yadu N.; Hanasaki, Naota; Wada, Yoshihide; Kim, Hyungjun

2016-01-01

The global water cycle has been profoundly affected by human land-water management. As the changes in the water cycle on land can affect the functioning of a wide range of biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system, it is essential to represent human land-water management in Earth system models (ESMs). During the recent past, noteworthy progress has been made in large-scale modeling of human impacts on the water cycle but sufficient advancements have not yet been made in integrating the newly developed schemes into ESMs. This study reviews the progresses made in incorporating human factors in large-scale hydrological models and their integration into ESMs. The study focuses primarily on the recent advancements and existing challenges in incorporating human impacts in global land surface models (LSMs) as a way forward to the development of ESMs with humans as integral components, but a brief review of global hydrological models (GHMs) is also provided. The study begins with the general overview of human impacts on the water cycle. Then, the algorithms currently employed to represent irrigation, reservoir operation, and groundwater pumping are discussed. Next, methodological deficiencies in current modeling approaches and existing challenges are identified. Furthermore, light is shed on the sources of uncertainties associated with model parameterizations, grid resolution, and datasets used for forcing and validation. Finally, representing human land-water management in LSMs is highlighted as an important research direction toward developing integrated models using ESM frameworks for the holistic study of human-water interactions within the Earths system.

Integrated Earth System Model (iESM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thornton, Peter Edmond; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying

2016-12-02

The iESM is a simulation code that represents the physical and biological aspects of Earth's climate system, and also includes the macro-economic and demographic properties of human societies. The human aspect of the simulation code is focused in particular on the effects of human activities on land use and land cover change, but also includes aspects such as energy economies. The time frame for predictions with iESM is approximately 1970 through 2100.

Development of a Grid-Independent Geos-Chem Chemical Transport Model (v9-02) as an Atmospheric Chemistry Module for Earth System Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Long, M. S.; Yantosca, R.; Nielsen, J. E; Keller, C. A.; Da Silva, A.; Sulprizio, M. P.; Pawson, S.; Jacob, D. J.

2015-01-01

The GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model (CTM), used by a large atmospheric chemistry research community, has been re-engineered to also serve as an atmospheric chemistry module for Earth system models (ESMs). This was done using an Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) interface that operates independently of the GEOSChem scientific code, permitting the exact same GEOSChem code to be used as an ESM module or as a standalone CTM. In this manner, the continual stream of updates contributed by the CTM user community is automatically passed on to the ESM module, which remains state of science and referenced to the latest version of the standard GEOS-Chem CTM. A major step in this re-engineering was to make GEOS-Chem grid independent, i.e., capable of using any geophysical grid specified at run time. GEOS-Chem data sockets were also created for communication between modules and with external ESM code. The grid-independent, ESMF-compatible GEOS-Chem is now the standard version of the GEOS-Chem CTM. It has been implemented as an atmospheric chemistry module into the NASA GEOS- 5 ESM. The coupled GEOS-5-GEOS-Chem system was tested for scalability and performance with a tropospheric oxidant-aerosol simulation (120 coupled species, 66 transported tracers) using 48-240 cores and message-passing interface (MPI) distributed-memory parallelization. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the GEOS-Chem chemistry module scales efficiently for the number of cores tested, with no degradation as the number of cores increases. Although inclusion of atmospheric chemistry in ESMs is computationally expensive, the excellent scalability of the chemistry module means that the relative cost goes down with increasing number of cores in a massively parallel environment.

Data-mining analysis of the global distribution of soil carbon in observational databases and Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashimoto, Shoji; Nanko, Kazuki; Ťupek, Boris; Lehtonen, Aleksi

2017-03-01

Future climate change will dramatically change the carbon balance in the soil, and this change will affect the terrestrial carbon stock and the climate itself. Earth system models (ESMs) are used to understand the current climate and to project future climate conditions, but the soil organic carbon (SOC) stock simulated by ESMs and those of observational databases are not well correlated when the two are compared at fine grid scales. However, the specific key processes and factors, as well as the relationships among these factors that govern the SOC stock, remain unclear; the inclusion of such missing information would improve the agreement between modeled and observational data. In this study, we sought to identify the influential factors that govern global SOC distribution in observational databases, as well as those simulated by ESMs. We used a data-mining (machine-learning) (boosted regression trees - BRT) scheme to identify the factors affecting the SOC stock. We applied BRT scheme to three observational databases and 15 ESM outputs from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and examined the effects of 13 variables/factors categorized into five groups (climate, soil property, topography, vegetation, and land-use history). Globally, the contributions of mean annual temperature, clay content, carbon-to-nitrogen (CN) ratio, wetland ratio, and land cover were high in observational databases, whereas the contributions of the mean annual temperature, land cover, and net primary productivity (NPP) were predominant in the SOC distribution in ESMs. A comparison of the influential factors at a global scale revealed that the most distinct differences between the SOCs from the observational databases and ESMs were the low clay content and CN ratio contributions, and the high NPP contribution in the ESMs. The results of this study will aid in identifying the causes of the current mismatches between observational SOC databases and ESM outputs and improve the modeling of terrestrial carbon dynamics in ESMs. This study also reveals how a data-mining algorithm can be used to assess model outputs.

Evaluation of NorESM-OC (versions 1 and 1.2), the ocean carbon-cycle stand-alone configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schwinger, Jorg; Goris, Nadine; Tjiputra, Jerry F.

Idealised and hindcast simulations performed with the stand-alone ocean carbon-cycle configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM-OC) are described and evaluated. We present simulation results of three different model configurations (two different model versions at different grid resolutions) using two different atmospheric forcing data sets. Model version NorESM-OC1 corresponds to the version that is included in the NorESM-ME1 fully coupled model, which participated in CMIP5. The main update between NorESM-OC1 and NorESM-OC1.2 is the addition of two new options for the treatment of sinking particles. We find that using a constant sinking speed, which has been the standard in NorESM'smore » ocean carbon cycle module HAMOCC (HAMburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model), does not transport enough particulate organic carbon (POC) into the deep ocean below approximately 2000 m depth. The two newly implemented parameterisations, a particle aggregation scheme with prognostic sinking speed, and a simpler scheme that uses a linear increase in the sinking speed with depth, provide better agreement with observed POC fluxes. Additionally, reduced deep ocean biases of oxygen and remineralised phosphate indicate a better performance of the new parameterisations. For model version 1.2, a re-tuning of the ecosystem parameterisation has been performed, which (i) reduces previously too high primary production at high latitudes, (ii) consequently improves model results for surface nutrients, and (iii) reduces alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon biases at low latitudes. We use hindcast simulations with prescribed observed and constant (pre-industrial) atmospheric CO 2 concentrations to derive the past and contemporary ocean carbon sink. As a result, for the period 1990–1999 we find an average ocean carbon uptake ranging from 2.01 to 2.58 Pg C yr -1 depending on model version, grid resolution, and atmospheric forcing data set.« less

Evaluation of NorESM-OC (versions 1 and 1.2), the ocean carbon-cycle stand-alone configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1)

DOE PAGES

Schwinger, Jorg; Goris, Nadine; Tjiputra, Jerry F.; ...

2016-08-02

Idealised and hindcast simulations performed with the stand-alone ocean carbon-cycle configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM-OC) are described and evaluated. We present simulation results of three different model configurations (two different model versions at different grid resolutions) using two different atmospheric forcing data sets. Model version NorESM-OC1 corresponds to the version that is included in the NorESM-ME1 fully coupled model, which participated in CMIP5. The main update between NorESM-OC1 and NorESM-OC1.2 is the addition of two new options for the treatment of sinking particles. We find that using a constant sinking speed, which has been the standard in NorESM'smore » ocean carbon cycle module HAMOCC (HAMburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model), does not transport enough particulate organic carbon (POC) into the deep ocean below approximately 2000 m depth. The two newly implemented parameterisations, a particle aggregation scheme with prognostic sinking speed, and a simpler scheme that uses a linear increase in the sinking speed with depth, provide better agreement with observed POC fluxes. Additionally, reduced deep ocean biases of oxygen and remineralised phosphate indicate a better performance of the new parameterisations. For model version 1.2, a re-tuning of the ecosystem parameterisation has been performed, which (i) reduces previously too high primary production at high latitudes, (ii) consequently improves model results for surface nutrients, and (iii) reduces alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon biases at low latitudes. We use hindcast simulations with prescribed observed and constant (pre-industrial) atmospheric CO 2 concentrations to derive the past and contemporary ocean carbon sink. As a result, for the period 1990–1999 we find an average ocean carbon uptake ranging from 2.01 to 2.58 Pg C yr -1 depending on model version, grid resolution, and atmospheric forcing data set.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jain, Atul K.

The overall objectives of this DOE funded project is to combine scientific and computational challenges in climate modeling by expanding our understanding of the biogeophysical-biogeochemical processes and their interactions in the northern high latitudes (NHLs) using an earth system modeling (ESM) approach, and by adopting an adaptive parallel runtime system in an ESM to achieve efficient and scalable climate simulations through improved load balancing algorithms.

Improving the representation of Arctic photosynthesis in Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, A.; Serbin, S.; Ely, K.; Sloan, V. L.; Wyatt, R. A.; Kubien, D. S.; Ali, A. A.; Xu, C.; Wullschleger, S. D.

2015-12-01

The primary goal of Earth System Models (ESMs) is to improve understanding and projection of future global change. In order to do this they must accurately represent the carbon fluxes associated with the terrestrial carbon cycle. Although Arctic carbon fluxes are small - relative to global carbon fluxes - uncertainty is large. As part of a multidisciplinary project to improve the representation of the Arctic in ESMs (Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments - Arctic) we are examining the photosynthetic parameterization of the Arctic plant functional type (PFT) in ESMs. Photosynthetic CO2 uptake is well described by the Farquhar, von Caemmerer and Berry (FvCB) model of photosynthesis. Most ESMs use a derivation of the FvCB model to calculate gross primary productivity. Two key parameters required by the FvCB model are an estimate of the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco (Vc,max) and the maximum rate of electron transport (Jmax). In ESMs the parameter Vc,max is usually fixed for a given PFT. Only four ESMs currently have an explicit Arctic PFT and the data used to derive Vc,max for the Arctic PFT in these models relies on small data sets and unjustified assumptions. We examined the derivation of Vc,max and Jmax in current Arctic PFTs and estimated Vc,max and Jmax for 7 species representing both dominant vegetation and key Arctic PFTs growing on the Barrow Environmental Observatory, Barrow, AK. The values of Vc,max currently used to represent Arctic PFTs in ESMs are 70% lower than the values we measured in these species. Examination of the derivation of Vc,max in ESMs identified that the cause of the relatively low Vc,max value was the result of underestimating both the leaf N content and the investment of that N in Rubisco. Contemporary temperature response functions for Vc,max also appear to underestimate Vc,max at low temperature. ESMs typically use a single multiplier (JVratio) to convert Vc,max to Jmax for all PFTs. We found that the JVratio of Arctic plants is higher than current estimates suggesting that the Arctic PFT will be more responsive to rising carbon dioxide than currently projected. Our data suggest that the Arctic tundra has a much greater capacity for CO2 uptake, particularly at low temperature, and will be more CO2 responsive than is currently represented in ESMs.

Canadian snow and sea ice: assessment of snow, sea ice, and related climate processes in Canada's Earth system model and climate-prediction system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, Paul J.; Mudryk, Lawrence R.; Merryfield, William; Ambadan, Jaison T.; Berg, Aaron; Bichet, Adéline; Brown, Ross; Derksen, Chris; Déry, Stephen J.; Dirkson, Arlan; Flato, Greg; Fletcher, Christopher G.; Fyfe, John C.; Gillett, Nathan; Haas, Christian; Howell, Stephen; Laliberté, Frédéric; McCusker, Kelly; Sigmond, Michael; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Tandon, Neil F.; Thackeray, Chad; Tremblay, Bruno; Zwiers, Francis W.

2018-04-01

The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (CanSISE) Network is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state-of-the-art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. This study presents an assessment from the CanSISE Network of the ability of the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) to simulate and predict snow and sea ice from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales, with a focus on the Canadian sector. To account for observational uncertainty, model structural uncertainty, and internal climate variability, the analysis uses multi-source observations, multiple Earth system models (ESMs) in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and large initial-condition ensembles of CanESM2 and other models. It is found that the ability of the CanESM2 simulation to capture snow-related climate parameters, such as cold-region surface temperature and precipitation, lies within the range of currently available international models. Accounting for the considerable disagreement among satellite-era observational datasets on the distribution of snow water equivalent, CanESM2 has too much springtime snow mass over Canada, reflecting a broader northern hemispheric positive bias. Biases in seasonal snow cover extent are generally less pronounced. CanESM2 also exhibits retreat of springtime snow generally greater than observational estimates, after accounting for observational uncertainty and internal variability. Sea ice is biased low in the Canadian Arctic, which makes it difficult to assess the realism of long-term sea ice trends there. The strengths and weaknesses of the modelling system need to be understood as a practical tradeoff: the Canadian models are relatively inexpensive computationally because of their moderate resolution, thus enabling their use in operational seasonal prediction and for generating large ensembles of multidecadal simulations. Improvements in climate-prediction systems like CanSIPS rely not just on simulation quality but also on using novel observational constraints and the ready transfer of research to an operational setting. Improvements in seasonal forecasting practice arising from recent research include accurate initialization of snow and frozen soil, accounting for observational uncertainty in forecast verification, and sea ice thickness initialization using statistical predictors available in real time.

Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luo, Y.; Ahlström, Anders; Allison, Steven D.; Batjes, Niels H.; Brovkin, V.; Carvalhais, Nuno; Chappell, Adrian; Ciais, Philippe; Davidson, Eric A.; Finzi, Adien; Georgiou, Katerina; Guenet, Bertrand; Hararuk, Oleksandra; Harden, Jennifer; He, Yujie; Hopkins, Francesca; Jiang, L.; Koven, Charles; Jackson, Robert B.; Jones, Chris D.; Lara, M.; Liang, J.; McGuire, A. David; Parton, William; Peng, Changhui; Randerson, J.; Salazar, Alejandro; Sierra, Carlos A.; Smith, Matthew J.; Tian, Hanqin; Todd-Brown, Katherine E. O; Torn, Margaret S.; van Groenigen, Kees Jan; Wang, Ying; West, Tristram O.; Wei, Yaxing; Wieder, William R.; Xia, Jianyang; Xu, Xia; Xu, Xiaofeng; Zhou, T.

2016-01-01

Soil carbon (C) is a critical component of Earth system models (ESMs), and its diverse representations are a major source of the large spread across models in the terrestrial C sink from the third to fifth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Improving soil C projections is of a high priority for Earth system modeling in the future IPCC and other assessments. To achieve this goal, we suggest that (1) model structures should reflect real-world processes, (2) parameters should be calibrated to match model outputs with observations, and (3) external forcing variables should accurately prescribe the environmental conditions that soils experience. First, most soil C cycle models simulate C input from litter production and C release through decomposition. The latter process has traditionally been represented by first-order decay functions, regulated primarily by temperature, moisture, litter quality, and soil texture. While this formulation well captures macroscopic soil organic C (SOC) dynamics, better understanding is needed of their underlying mechanisms as related to microbial processes, depth-dependent environmental controls, and other processes that strongly affect soil C dynamics. Second, incomplete use of observations in model parameterization is a major cause of bias in soil C projections from ESMs. Optimal parameter calibration with both pool- and flux-based data sets through data assimilation is among the highest priorities for near-term research to reduce biases among ESMs. Third, external variables are represented inconsistently among ESMs, leading to differences in modeled soil C dynamics. We recommend the implementation of traceability analyses to identify how external variables and model parameterizations influence SOC dynamics in different ESMs. Overall, projections of the terrestrial C sink can be substantially improved when reliable data sets are available to select the most representative model structure, constrain parameters, and prescribe forcing fields.

Technology Investments in the NASA Entry Systems Modeling Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnhardt, Michael; Wright, Michael; Hughes, Monica

2017-01-01

The Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) technology development project, initiated in 2012 under NASAs Game Changing Development (GCD) Program, is engaged in maturation of fundamental research developing aerosciences, materials, and integrated systems products for entry, descent, and landing(EDL)technologies [1]. To date, the ESM project has published over 200 papers in these areas, comprising the bulk of NASAs research program for EDL modeling. This presentation will provide an overview of the projects successes and challenges, and an assessment of future investments in EDL modeling and simulation relevant to NASAs mission

Representing agriculture in Earth System Models: Approaches and priorities for development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDermid, S. S.; Mearns, L. O.; Ruane, A. C.

2017-09-01

Earth System Model (ESM) advances now enable improved representations of spatially and temporally varying anthropogenic climate forcings. One critical forcing is global agriculture, which is now extensive in land-use and intensive in management, owing to 20th century development trends. Agriculture and food systems now contribute nearly 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions and require copious inputs and resources, such as fertilizer, water, and land. Much uncertainty remains in quantifying important agriculture-climate interactions, including surface moisture and energy balances and biogeochemical cycling. Despite these externalities and uncertainties, agriculture is increasingly being leveraged to function as a net sink of anthropogenic carbon, and there is much emphasis on future sustainable intensification. Given its significance as a major environmental and climate forcing, there now exist a variety of approaches to represent agriculture in ESMs. These approaches are reviewed herein, and range from idealized representations of agricultural extent to the development of coupled climate-crop models that capture dynamic feedbacks. We highlight the robust agriculture-climate interactions and responses identified by these modeling efforts, as well as existing uncertainties and model limitations. To this end, coordinated and benchmarking assessments of land-use-climate feedbacks can be leveraged for further improvements in ESM's agricultural representations. We suggest key areas for continued model development, including incorporating irrigation and biogeochemical cycling in particular. Last, we pose several critical research questions to guide future work. Our review focuses on ESM representations of climate-surface interactions over managed agricultural lands, rather than on ESMs as an estimation tool for crop yields and productivity.

Assessment of malaria transmission changes in Africa, due to the climate impact of land use change using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 earth system models.

PubMed

Tompkins, Adrian M; Caporaso, Luca

2016-03-31

Using mathematical modelling tools, we assessed the potential for land use change (LUC) associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change low- and high-end emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) to impact malaria transmission in Africa. To drive a spatially explicit, dynamical malaria model, data from the four available earth system models (ESMs) that contributed to the LUC experiment of the Fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project are used. Despite the limited size of the ESM ensemble, stark differences in the assessment of how LUC can impact climate are revealed. In three out of four ESMs, the impact of LUC on precipitation and temperature over the next century is limited, resulting in no significant change in malaria transmission. However, in one ESM, LUC leads to increases in precipitation under scenario RCP2.6, and increases in temperature in areas of land use conversion to farmland under both scenarios. The result is a more intense transmission and longer transmission seasons in the southeast of the continent, most notably in Mozambique and southern Tanzania. In contrast, warming associated with LUC in the Sahel region reduces risk in this model, as temperatures are already above the 25-30°C threshold at which transmission peaks. The differences between the ESMs emphasise the uncertainty in such assessments. It is also recalled that the modelling framework is unable to adequately represent local-scale changes in climate due to LUC, which some field studies indicate could be significant.

Variability of fire emissions on interannual to multi-decadal timescales in two Earth System models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.

Connections between wildfires and modes of variability in climate are sought as a means for predicting fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Several fire drivers, such as temperature and local drought index, have been shown to vary on these timescales, and analysis of tree-ring data suggests covariance between fires and climate oscillation indices in some regions. HBut, the shortness of the satellite record of global fire events limits investigations on larger spatial scales. Here we explore the interplay between climate variability and wildfire emissions with the preindustrial long control numerical experiments and historical ensembles of CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDLmore » ESM2Mb. We find that interannual variability in fires is underpredicted in both Earth System models (ESMs) compared to present day fire emission inventories. Modeled fire emissions respond to the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) with increases in southeast Asia and boreal North America emissions, and decreases in southern North America and Sahel emissions, during the ENSO warm phase in both ESMs, and the PDO warm phase in CESM1. In addition, CESM1 produces decreases in boreal northern hemisphere fire emissions for the warm phase of the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation. Through analysis of the long control simulations, we show that the 20th century trends in both ESMs are statistically significant, meaning that the signal of anthropogenic activity on fire emissions over this time period is detectable above the annual to decadal timescale noise. However, the trends simulated by the two ESMs are of opposite sign (CESM1 decreasing, ESM2Mb increasing), highlighting the need for improved understanding, proxy observations, and modeling to resolve this discrepancy.« less

Variability of fire emissions on interannual to multi-decadal timescales in two Earth System models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Wittenberg, A. T.

2016-12-01

Connections between wildfires and modes of variability in climate are sought as a means for predicting fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Several fire drivers, such as temperature and local drought index, have been shown to vary on these timescales, and analysis of tree-ring data suggests covariance between fires and climate oscillation indices in some regions. However, the shortness of the satellite record of global fire events limits investigations on larger spatial scales. Here we explore the interplay between climate variability and wildfire emissions with the preindustrial long control numerical experiments and historical ensembles of CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDL ESM2Mb. We find that interannual variability in fires is underpredicted in both Earth System models (ESMs) compared to present day fire emission inventories. Modeled fire emissions respond to the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) with increases in southeast Asia and boreal North America emissions, and decreases in southern North America and Sahel emissions, during the ENSO warm phase in both ESMs, and the PDO warm phase in CESM1. Additionally, CESM1 produces decreases in boreal northern hemisphere fire emissions for the warm phase of the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation. Through analysis of the long control simulations, we show that the 20th century trends in both ESMs are statistically significant, meaning that the signal of anthropogenic activity on fire emissions over this time period is detectable above the annual to decadal timescale noise. However, the trends simulated by the two ESMs are of opposite sign (CESM1 decreasing, ESM2Mb increasing), highlighting the need for improved understanding, proxy observations, and modeling to resolve this discrepancy.

Variability of fire emissions on interannual to multi-decadal timescales in two Earth System models

DOE PAGES

Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; ...

2016-12-02

Connections between wildfires and modes of variability in climate are sought as a means for predicting fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Several fire drivers, such as temperature and local drought index, have been shown to vary on these timescales, and analysis of tree-ring data suggests covariance between fires and climate oscillation indices in some regions. HBut, the shortness of the satellite record of global fire events limits investigations on larger spatial scales. Here we explore the interplay between climate variability and wildfire emissions with the preindustrial long control numerical experiments and historical ensembles of CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDLmore » ESM2Mb. We find that interannual variability in fires is underpredicted in both Earth System models (ESMs) compared to present day fire emission inventories. Modeled fire emissions respond to the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) with increases in southeast Asia and boreal North America emissions, and decreases in southern North America and Sahel emissions, during the ENSO warm phase in both ESMs, and the PDO warm phase in CESM1. In addition, CESM1 produces decreases in boreal northern hemisphere fire emissions for the warm phase of the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation. Through analysis of the long control simulations, we show that the 20th century trends in both ESMs are statistically significant, meaning that the signal of anthropogenic activity on fire emissions over this time period is detectable above the annual to decadal timescale noise. However, the trends simulated by the two ESMs are of opposite sign (CESM1 decreasing, ESM2Mb increasing), highlighting the need for improved understanding, proxy observations, and modeling to resolve this discrepancy.« less

The influence of an atmospheric Two-Way coupled model system on the predictability of extratropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuster, Mareike; Thürkow, Markus; Weiher, Stefan; Kirchner, Ingo; Ulbrich, Uwe; Will, Andreas

2016-04-01

A general bias of global atmosphere ocean models, and also of the MPI-ESM, is an under-representation of the high latitude cyclone activity and an overestimation of the mid latitude cyclone activity in the North Atlantic, thus representing the extra-tropical storm track too zonal. We will show, that this effect can be antagonized by applying an atmospheric Two-Way Coupling (TWC). In this study we present a newly developed Two-Way Coupled model system, which is based on the MPI-ESM, and show that it is able to capture the mean storm track location more accurate. It also influences the sub-decadal deterministic predictability of extra-tropical cyclones and shows significantly enhanced skill compared to the "uncoupled" MPI-ESM standalone system. This study evaluates a set of hindcast experiments performed with said Two-Way Coupled model system. The regional model COSMO CLM is Two-Way Coupled to the atmosphere of the global Max-Plack-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and therefore integrates and exchanges the state of the atmosphere every 10 minutes (MPI-TWC-ESM). In the coupled source region (North Atlantic), mesoscale processes which are relevant for the formation and early-stage development of cyclones are expected to be better represented, and therefore influence the large scale dynamics of the target region (Europe). The database covers 102 "uncoupled" years and 102 Two-Way Coupled years of the recent climate (1960-2010). Results are validated against the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Besides the climatological point of view, the design of this single model ensemble allows for an analysis of the predictability of the first and second leadyears of the hindcasts. As a first step to understand the improved predictability of cyclones, we will show a detailed analysis of climatologies for specific cyclone categories, sorted by season and region. Especially for cyclones affecting Europe, the TWC is capable to counteract the AOGCM's biases in the North Atlantic. Also, cyclones which are generated in the northern North Atlantic and the Labrador Sea are to an extraordinary extent underestimated in the "uncoupled" MPI-ESM - for the latter region the TWC can balance this shortcoming. In the Northern Hemisphere annual mean statistics the TWC does not change the distribution of the strength of cyclones, but it changes the distribution of the lifetime of cyclones.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Yiqi; Ahlström, Anders; Allison, Steven D.

Soil carbon (C) is a critical component of Earth system models (ESMs) and its diverse representations are a major source of the large spread across models in the terrestrial C sink from the 3rd to 5th assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Improving soil C projections is of a high priority for Earth system modeling in the future IPCC and other assessments. To achieve this goal, we suggest that (1) model structures should reflect real-world processes, (2) parameters should be calibrated to match model outputs with observations, and (3) external forcing variables should accurately prescribe themore » environmental conditions that soils experience. Firstly, most soil C cycle models simulate C input from litter production and C release through decomposition. The latter process has traditionally been represented by 1st-order decay functions, regulated primarily by temperature, moisture, litter quality, and soil texture. While this formulation well captures macroscopic SOC dynamics, better understanding is needed of their underlying mechanisms as related to microbial processes, depth-dependent environmental controls, and other processes that strongly affect soil C dynamics. Secondly, incomplete use of observations in model parameterization is a major cause of bias in soil C projections from ESMs. Optimal parameter calibration with both pool- and flux-based datasets through data assimilation is among the highest priorities for near-term research to reduce biases among ESMs. Thirdly, external variables are represented inconsistently among ESMs, leading to differences in modeled soil C dynamics. We recommend the implementation of traceability analyses to identify how external variables and model parameterizations influence SOC dynamics in different ESMs. Overall, projections of the terrestrial C sink can be substantially improved when reliable datasets are available to select the most representative model structure, constrain parameters, and prescribe forcing fields.« less

Improving the representation of Arctic photosynthesis in Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, A.; Serbin, S.; Sloan, V. L.; Norby, R. J.; Wullschleger, S. D.

2014-12-01

The primary goal of Earth System Models (ESMs) is to improve understanding and projection of future global change. In order to do this models must accurately represent the terrestrial carbon cycle. Although Arctic carbon fluxes are small relative to global carbon fluxes, uncertainty is large. Photosynthetic CO2 uptake is well described by the Farquhar, von Caemmerer and Berry (FvCB) model of photosynthesis and most ESMs use a derivation of the FvCB model to calculate gross primary productivity. Two key parameters required by the FvCB model are an estimate of the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco (Vc,max) and the maximum rate of electron transport (Jmax). In ESMs the parameter Vc,max is typically fixed for a given plant functional type (PFT). Only four ESMs currently have an explicit Arctic PFT and the data used to derive Vc,max in these models relies on small data sets and unjustified assumptions. We examined the derivation of Vc,max and Jmax in current Arctic PFTs and estimated Vc,max and Jmax for a range of Arctic PFTs growing on the Barrow Environmental Observatory, Barrow, AK. We found that the values of Vc,max currently used to represent Arctic plants in ESMs are 70% lower than the values we measured, and contemporary temperature response functions for Vc,max also appear to underestimate Vc,max at low temperature. ESMs typically use a single multiplier (JVratio) to convert Vc,max to Jmax, however we found that the JVratio of Arctic plants is higher than current estimates suggesting that Arctic PFTs will be more responsive to rising carbon dioxide than currently projected. In addition we are exploring remotely sensed methods to scale up key biochemical (e.g. leaf N, leaf mass area) and physiological (e.g. Vc,max and Jmax) properties that drive model representation of photosynthesis in the Arctic. Our data suggest that the Arctic tundra has a much greater capacity for CO2 uptake, particularly at low temperature, and will be more CO2 responsive than is currently represented in ESMs. As we build robust relationships between physiology and spectral signatures we hope to provide spatially and temporally resolved trait maps of key model parameters that can be ingested by new model frameworks, or used to validate emergent model properties.

Advanced Life Support Equivalent System Mass Guidelines Document

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levri, Julie; Fisher, John W.; Jones, Harry W.; Drysdale, Alan E.; Ewert, Michael K.; Hanford, Anthony J.; Hogan, John A.; Joshi, Jitendri, A.; Vaccari, David A.

2003-01-01

This document is a viewgraph presentation which provides guidelines for performing an Equivalent System Mass (ESM) evaluation for trade study purposes. The document: 1) Defines ESM; 2) Explains how to calculate ESM; 3) Discusses interpretation of ESM results. The document is designed to provide detailed instructive material for researchers who are performing ESM evaluations for the first time.

Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models

DOE PAGES

Luo, Yiqi; Ahlstrom, Anders; Allison, Steven D.; ...

2016-01-21

Soil carbon (C) is a critical component of Earth system models (ESMs), and its diverse representations are a major source of the large spread across models in the terrestrial C sink from the third to fifth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Improving soil C projections is of a high priority for Earth system modeling in the future IPCC and other assessments. To achieve this goal, we suggest that (1) model structures should reflect real-world processes, (2) parameters should be calibrated to match model outputs with observations, and (3) external forcing variables should accurately prescribe themore » environmental conditions that soils experience. First, most soil C cycle models simulate C input from litter production and C release through decomposition. The latter process has traditionally been represented by first-order decay functions, regulated primarily by temperature, moisture, litter quality, and soil texture. While this formulation well captures macroscopic soil organic C (SOC) dynamics, better understanding is needed of their underlying mechanisms as related to microbial processes, depth-dependent environmental controls, and other processes that strongly affect soil C dynamics. Second, incomplete use of observations in model parameterization is a major cause of bias in soil C projections from ESMs. Optimal parameter calibration with both pool-and flux-based data sets through data assimilation is among the highest priorities for near-term research to reduce biases among ESMs. Third, external variables are represented inconsistently among ESMs, leading to differences in modeled soil C dynamics. Furthermore, we recommend the implementation of traceability analyses to identify how external variables and model parameterizations influence SOC dynamics in different ESMs. Overall, projections of the terrestrial C sink can be substantially improved when reliable data sets are available to select the most representative model structure, constrain parameters, and prescribe forcing fields.« less

Nitrogen limitation on land: how can it occur in Earth system models?

PubMed

Thomas, R Quinn; Brookshire, E N Jack; Gerber, Stefan

2015-05-01

The representation of the nitrogen (N) cycle in Earth system models (ESMs) is strongly motivated by the constraint N poses on the sequestration of anthropogenic carbon (C). Models typically implement a stoichiometric relationship between C and N in which external supply and assimilation by organisms are adjusted to maintain their internal stoichiometry. N limitation of primary productivity thus occurs if the N supply from uptake and fixation cannot keep up with the construction of tissues allowed by C assimilation. This basic approach, however, presents considerable challenges in how to faithfully represent N limitation. Here, we review how N limitation is currently implemented and evaluated in ESMs and highlight challenges and opportunities in their future development. At or near steady state, N limitation is governed by the magnitude of losses from the plant-unavailable pool vs. N fixation and there are considerable differences in how models treat both processes. In nonsteady-state systems, the accumulation of N in pools with slow turnover rates reduces N available for plant uptake and can be challenging to represent when initializing ESM simulations. Transactional N limitation occurs when N is incorporated into various vegetation and soil pools and becomes available to plants only after it is mineralized, the dynamics of which depends on how ESMs represent decomposition processes in soils. Other challenges for ESMs emerge when considering seasonal to interannual climatic oscillations as they create asynchronies between C and N demand, leading to transient alternations between N surplus and deficit. Proper evaluation of N dynamics in ESMs requires conceptual understanding of the main levers that trigger N limitation, and we highlight key measurements and observations that can help constrain these levers. Two of the biggest challenges are the mechanistic representation of plant controls on N availability and turnover, including N fixation and organic matter decomposition processes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Causes of the large warm bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone in the Norwegian Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koseki, Shunya; Keenlyside, Noel; Demissie, Teferi; Toniazzo, Thomas; Counillon, Francois; Bethke, Ingo; Ilicak, Mehmet; Shen, Mao-Lin

2018-06-01

We have investigated the causes of the sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) of the southeastern Atlantic Ocean simulated by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Similar to other coupled-models, NorESM has a warm SST bias in the ABFZ of up to 8 °C in the annual mean. Our analysis of NorESM reveals that a cyclonic surface wind bias over the ABFZ drives a locally excessively strong southward (0.05 m/s (relative to observation)) Angola Current displacing the ABFZ southward. A series of uncoupled stand-alone atmosphere and ocean model simulations are performed to investigate the cause of the coupled model bias. The stand-alone atmosphere model driven with observed SST exhibits a similar cyclonic surface circulation bias; while the stand-alone ocean model forced with the reanalysis data produces a warm SST in the ABFZ with a magnitude approximately half of that in the coupled NorESM simulation. An additional uncoupled sensitivity experiment shows that the atmospheric model's local negative surface wind curl generates anomalously strong Angola Current at the ocean surface. Consequently, this contributes to the warm SST bias in the ABFZ by 2 °C (compared to the reanalysis forced simulation). There is no evidence that local air-sea feedbacks among wind stress curl, SST, and sea level pressure (SLP) affect the ABFZ SST bias. Turbulent surface heat flux differences between coupled and uncoupled experiments explain the remaining 2 °C warm SST bias in NorESM. Ocean circulation, upwelling and turbulent heat flux errors all modulate the intensity and the seasonality of the ABFZ errors.

Description and Evaluation of IAP-AACM: A Global-regional Aerosol Chemistry Model for the Earth System Model CAS-ESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Y.; Chen, X.

2017-12-01

We present a first description and evaluation of the IAP Atmospheric Aerosol Chemistry Model (IAP-AACM) which has been integrated into the earth system model CAS-ESM. In this way it is possible to research into interaction of clouds and aerosol by its two-way coupling with the IAP Atmospheric General Circulation Model (IAP-AGCM). The model has a nested global-regional grid based on the Global Environmental Atmospheric Transport Model (GEATM) and the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS). The AACM provides two optional gas chemistry schemes, the CBM-Z gas chemistry as well as a sulfur oxidize box designed specifically for the CAS-ESM. Now the model driven by AGCM has been applied to a 1-year simulation of tropospheric chemistry both on global and regional scales for 2014, and been evaluated against various observation datasets, including aerosol precursor gas concentration, aerosol mass and number concentrations. Furthermore, global budgets in AACM are compared with other global aerosol models. Generally, the AACM simulations are within the range of other global aerosol model predictions, and the model has a reasonable agreement with observations of gases and particles concentration both on global and regional scales.

Climatological temperature senstivity of soil carbon turnover: Observations, simple scaling models, and ESMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koven, C. D.; Hugelius, G.; Lawrence, D. M.; Wieder, W. R.

2016-12-01

The projected loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere resulting from climate change is a potentially large but highly uncertain feedback to warming. The magnitude of this feedback is poorly constrained by observations and theory, and is disparately represented in Earth system models. To assess the likely long-term response of soils to climate change, spatial gradients in soil carbon turnover times can identify broad-scale and long-term controls on the rate of carbon cycling as a function of climate and other factors. Here we show that the climatological temperature control on carbon turnover in the top meter of global soils is more sensitive in cold climates than in warm ones. We present a simplified model that explains the high cold-climate sensitivity using only the physical scaling of soil freeze-thaw state across climate gradients. Critically, current Earth system models (ESMs) fail to capture this pattern, however it emerges from an ESM that explicitly resolves vertical gradients in soil climate and turnover. The weak tropical temperature sensitivity emerges from a different model that explicitly resolves mineralogical control on decomposition. These results support projections of strong future carbon-climate feedbacks from northern soils and demonstrate a method for ESMs to capture this emergent behavior.

Improved Analysis of Earth System Models and Observations using Simple Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadiga, B. T.; Urban, N. M.

2016-12-01

Earth system models (ESM) are the most comprehensive tools we have to study climate change and develop climate projections. However, the computational infrastructure required and the cost incurred in running such ESMs precludes direct use of such models in conjunction with a wide variety of tools that can further our understanding of climate. Here we are referring to tools that range from dynamical systems tools that give insight into underlying flow structure and topology to tools that come from various applied mathematical and statistical techniques and are central to quantifying stability, sensitivity, uncertainty and predictability to machine learning tools that are now being rapidly developed or improved. Our approach to facilitate the use of such models is to analyze output of ESM experiments (cf. CMIP) using a range of simpler models that consider integral balances of important quantities such as mass and/or energy in a Bayesian framework.We highlight the use of this approach in the context of the uptake of heat by the world oceans in the ongoing global warming. Indeed, since in excess of 90% of the anomalous radiative forcing due greenhouse gas emissions is sequestered in the world oceans, the nature of ocean heat uptake crucially determines the surface warming that is realized (cf. climate sensitivity). Nevertheless, ESMs themselves are never run long enough to directly assess climate sensitivity. So, we consider a range of models based on integral balances--balances that have to be realized in all first-principles based models of the climate system including the most detailed state-of-the art climate simulations. The models range from simple models of energy balance to those that consider dynamically important ocean processes such as the conveyor-belt circulation (Meridional Overturning Circulation, MOC), North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation, Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and eddy mixing. Results from Bayesian analysis of such models using both ESM experiments and actual observations are presented. One such result points to the importance of direct sequestration of heat below 700 m, a process that is not allowed for in the simple models that have been traditionally used to deduce climate sensitivity.

Climate Projections over Mediterranean Basin under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ilhan, Asli; Ünal, Yurdanur S.

2017-04-01

Climate Projections over Mediterranean Basin under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios A. ILHAN ve Y. S. UNAL Istanbul Technical University, Department of Meteorology In the study, 50 km resolution downscaled results of two different Earth System Models (ESM) HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM with regional climate model of RegCM are used to estimate present and future climate conditions over Mediterranean Basin. The purpose of this study is to compare the projections of two ESMs under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) over the region of interest seasonally and annually with 50 km resolution. Temperature and precipitation parameters for reference period (1971-2000) and future (2015-2100) are analyzed. The average temperature and total precipitation distributions of each downscaled ESM simulations were compared with observation data (Climate Research Unit-CRU data) to explore the capability of each model for the representation of the current climate. According to reference period values of CRU, HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM, it is seen that both models are warmer and wetter than observations and have positive temperature biases only around Caspian Sea and positive precipitation biases over Eastern and Central Europe. The future projections (from 2015 to 2100) of HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR simulations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios are compared with reference period (from 1971 to 2000) and analyzed for temperature and precipitation parameters. The downscaled HadGEM2-ES forced by RCP8.5 scenario produces higher temperatures than the MPI-ESM-MR. The reasons of this warming can be sensitivity of HadGEM2-ES to greenhouse gases and high radiative forcing (+8.5 W/m2). On the other hand, MPI-ESM produce more precipitation than HadGEM2-ES. In order to analyze regional responses of the climate model chains, five main regions are selected which are Turkey, Central Europe, Western Europe, Eastern Europe and North Africa. The average biases of the HadGEM2-ES+RegCM and MPI-ESM-MR+RegCM model chains are also calculated for temperature and precipitation variables, and future expectations in each region are discussed under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. According to the regional analysis, North Africa is the warmest region for HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR, and Central Europe warms up similar to North Africa in MPI-ESM-MR coupled simulations under both RCPs. In addition, Eastern Europe is expected to be the wettest region in both models and in both emission scenarios. On the other hand, the driest conditions are expected over Western Europe for MPI-ESM-MR and over Turkey for HadGEM2-ES under RCPs.

Causes and Implications of Persistent Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Biases in Earth System Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M; Randerson, James T.; Arora, Vivek K.

The strength of feedbacks between a changing climate and future CO2 concentrations are uncertain and difficult to predict using Earth System Models (ESMs). We analyzed emission-driven simulations--in which atmospheric CO2 levels were computed prognostically--for historical (1850-2005) and future periods (RCP 8.5 for 2006-2100) produced by 15 ESMs for the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Comparison of ESM prognostic atmospheric CO2 over the historical period with observations indicated that ESMs, on average, had a small positive bias in predictions of contemporary atmospheric CO2. Weak ocean carbon uptake in many ESMs contributed to this bias, based on comparisonsmore » with observations of ocean and atmospheric anthropogenic carbon inventories. We found a significant linear relationship between contemporary atmospheric CO2 biases and future CO2 levels for the multi-model ensemble. We used this relationship to create a contemporary CO2 tuned model (CCTM) estimate of the atmospheric CO2 trajectory for the 21st century. The CCTM yielded CO2 estimates of 600 {plus minus} 14 ppm at 2060 and 947 {plus minus} 35 ppm at 2100, which were 21 ppm and 32 ppm below the multi-model mean during these two time periods. Using this emergent constraint approach, the likely ranges of future atmospheric CO2, CO2-induced radiative forcing, and CO2-induced temperature increases for the RCP 8.5 scenario were considerably narrowed compared to estimates from the full ESM ensemble. Our analysis provided evidence that much of the model-to-model variation in projected CO2 during the 21st century was tied to biases that existed during the observational era, and that model differences in the representation of concentration-carbon feedbacks and other slowly changing carbon cycle processes appear to be the primary driver of this variability. By improving models to more closely match the long-term time series of CO2 from Mauna Loa, our analysis suggests uncertainties in future climate projections can be reduced.« less

Models meet data: Challenges and opportunities in implementing land management in Earth system models.

PubMed

Pongratz, Julia; Dolman, Han; Don, Axel; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Fuchs, Richard; Herold, Martin; Jones, Chris; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Meyfroidt, Patrick; Naudts, Kim

2018-04-01

As the applications of Earth system models (ESMs) move from general climate projections toward questions of mitigation and adaptation, the inclusion of land management practices in these models becomes crucial. We carried out a survey among modeling groups to show an evolution from models able only to deal with land-cover change to more sophisticated approaches that allow also for the partial integration of land management changes. For the longer term a comprehensive land management representation can be anticipated for all major models. To guide the prioritization of implementation, we evaluate ten land management practices-forestry harvest, tree species selection, grazing and mowing harvest, crop harvest, crop species selection, irrigation, wetland drainage, fertilization, tillage, and fire-for (1) their importance on the Earth system, (2) the possibility of implementing them in state-of-the-art ESMs, and (3) availability of required input data. Matching these criteria, we identify "low-hanging fruits" for the inclusion in ESMs, such as basic implementations of crop and forestry harvest and fertilization. We also identify research requirements for specific communities to address the remaining land management practices. Data availability severely hampers modeling the most extensive land management practice, grazing and mowing harvest, and is a limiting factor for a comprehensive implementation of most other practices. Inadequate process understanding hampers even a basic assessment of crop species selection and tillage effects. The need for multiple advanced model structures will be the challenge for a comprehensive implementation of most practices but considerable synergy can be gained using the same structures for different practices. A continuous and closer collaboration of the modeling, Earth observation, and land system science communities is thus required to achieve the inclusion of land management in ESMs. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatial representation of organic carbon and active-layer thickness of high latitude soils in CMIP5 earth system models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mishra, Umakant; Drewniak, Beth; Jastrow, Julie D.

Soil properties such as soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and active-layer thickness are used in earth system models (F.SMs) to predict anthropogenic and climatic impacts on soil carbon dynamics, future changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and associated climate changes in the permafrost regions. Accurate representation of spatial and vertical distribution of these soil properties in ESMs is a prerequisite for redudng existing uncertainty in predicting carbon-climate feedbacks. We compared the spatial representation of SOC stocks and active-layer thicknesses predicted by the coupled Modellntercomparison Project Phase 5 { CMIP5) ESMs with those predicted from geospatial predictions, based on observation datamore » for the state of Alaska, USA. For the geospatial modeling. we used soil profile observations {585 for SOC stocks and 153 for active-layer thickness) and environmental variables (climate, topography, land cover, and surficial geology types) and generated fine-resolution (50-m spatial resolution) predictions of SOC stocks (to 1-m depth) and active-layer thickness across Alaska. We found large inter-quartile range (2.5-5.5 m) in predicted active-layer thickness of CMIP5 modeled results and small inter-quartile range (11.5-22 kg m-2) in predicted SOC stocks. The spatial coefficient of variability of active-layer thickness and SOC stocks were lower in CMIP5 predictions compared to our geospatial estimates when gridded at similar spatial resolutions (24.7 compared to 30% and 29 compared to 38%, respectively). However, prediction errors. when calculated for independent validation sites, were several times larger in ESM predictions compared to geospatial predictions. Primaly factors leading to observed differences were ( 1) lack of spatial heterogeneity in ESM predictions, (2) differences in assumptions concerning environmental controls, and (3) the absence of pedogenic processes in ESM model structures. Our results suggest that efforts to incorporate these factors in F.SMs should reduce current uncertainties associated with ESM predictions of carbon-climate feedbacks.« less

Development and Performance of the Modularized, High-performance Computing and Hybrid-architecture Capable GEOS-Chem Chemical Transport Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Long, M. S.; Yantosca, R.; Nielsen, J.; Linford, J. C.; Keller, C. A.; Payer Sulprizio, M.; Jacob, D. J.

2014-12-01

The GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model (CTM), used by a large atmospheric chemistry research community, has been reengineered to serve as a platform for a range of computational atmospheric chemistry science foci and applications. Development included modularization for coupling to general circulation and Earth system models (ESMs) and the adoption of co-processor capable atmospheric chemistry solvers. This was done using an Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) interface that operates independently of GEOS-Chem scientific code to permit seamless transition from the GEOS-Chem stand-alone serial CTM to deployment as a coupled ESM module. In this manner, the continual stream of updates contributed by the CTM user community is automatically available for broader applications, which remain state-of-science and directly referenceable to the latest version of the standard GEOS-Chem CTM. These developments are now available as part of the standard version of the GEOS-Chem CTM. The system has been implemented as an atmospheric chemistry module within the NASA GEOS-5 ESM. The coupled GEOS-5/GEOS-Chem system was tested for weak and strong scalability and performance with a tropospheric oxidant-aerosol simulation. Results confirm that the GEOS-Chem chemical operator scales efficiently for any number of processes. Although inclusion of atmospheric chemistry in ESMs is computationally expensive, the excellent scalability of the chemical operator means that the relative cost goes down with increasing number of processes, making fine-scale resolution simulations possible.

Causes and implications of persistent atmospheric carbon dioxide biases in Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, F. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Arora, V. K.; Bao, Q.; Cadule, P.; Ji, D.; Jones, C. D.; Kawamiya, M.; Khatiwala, S.; Lindsay, K.; Obata, A.; Shevliakova, E.; Six, K. D.; Tjiputra, J. F.; Volodin, E. M.; Wu, T.

2014-02-01

The strength of feedbacks between a changing climate and future CO2 concentrations is uncertain and difficult to predict using Earth System Models (ESMs). We analyzed emission-driven simulations—in which atmospheric CO2levels were computed prognostically—for historical (1850-2005) and future periods (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for 2006-2100) produced by 15 ESMs for the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Comparison of ESM prognostic atmospheric CO2 over the historical period with observations indicated that ESMs, on average, had a small positive bias in predictions of contemporary atmospheric CO2. Weak ocean carbon uptake in many ESMs contributed to this bias, based on comparisons with observations of ocean and atmospheric anthropogenic carbon inventories. We found a significant linear relationship between contemporary atmospheric CO2 biases and future CO2levels for the multimodel ensemble. We used this relationship to create a contemporary CO2 tuned model (CCTM) estimate of the atmospheric CO2 trajectory for the 21st century. The CCTM yielded CO2estimates of 600±14 ppm at 2060 and 947±35 ppm at 2100, which were 21 ppm and 32 ppm below the multimodel mean during these two time periods. Using this emergent constraint approach, the likely ranges of future atmospheric CO2, CO2-induced radiative forcing, and CO2-induced temperature increases for the RCP 8.5 scenario were considerably narrowed compared to estimates from the full ESM ensemble. Our analysis provided evidence that much of the model-to-model variation in projected CO2 during the 21st century was tied to biases that existed during the observational era and that model differences in the representation of concentration-carbon feedbacks and other slowly changing carbon cycle processes appear to be the primary driver of this variability. By improving models to more closely match the long-term time series of CO2from Mauna Loa, our analysis suggests that uncertainties in future climate projections can be reduced.

The Functionally-Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator Version 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Chonggang; Christoffersen, Bradley

The Functionally-Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) is a vegetation model for use in Earth system models (ESMs). The model includes a size- and age-structured representation of tree dynamics, competition between functionally diverse plant functional types, and the biophysics underpinning plant growth, competition, mortality, as well as the carbon, water, and energy exchange with the atmosphere. The FATES model is designed as a modular vegetation model that can be integrated within a host land model for inclusion in ESMs. The model is designed for use in global change studies to understand and project the responses and feedbacks between terrestrial ecosystems andmore » the Earth system under changing climate and other forcings.« less

Self-consistent modeling of electrochemical strain microscopy of solid electrolytes

DOE PAGES

Tselev, Alexander; Morozovska, Anna N.; Udod, Alexei; ...

2014-10-10

Electrochemical strain microscopy (ESM) employs a strong electromechanical coupling in solid ionic conductors to map ionic transport and electrochemical processes with nanometer-scale spatial resolution. To elucidate the mechanisms of the ESM image formation, we performed self-consistent numerical modeling of the electromechanical response in solid electrolytes under the probe tip in a linear, small-signal regime using the Boltzmann–Planck–Nernst–Einstein theory and Vegard's law while taking account of the electromigration and diffusion. We identified the characteristic time scales involved in the formation of the ESM response and found that the dynamics of the charge carriers in the tip-electrolyte system with blocking interfaces canmore » be described as charging of the diffuse layer at the tip-electrolyte interface through the tip contact spreading resistance. At the high frequencies used in the detection regime, the distribution of the charge carriers under the tip is governed by evanescent concentration waves generated at the tip-electrolyte interface. The ion drift length in the electric field produced by the tip determines the ESM response at high frequencies, which follows a 1/f asymptotic law. The electronic conductivity, as well as the electron transport through the electrode-electrolyte interface, do not have a significant effect on the ESM signal in the detection regime. The results indicate, however, that for typical solid electrolytes at room temperature, the ESM response originates at and contains information about the very surface layer of a sample, and the properties of the one-unit-cell-thick surface layer may significantly contribute to the ESM response, implying a high surface sensitivity and a high lateral resolution of the technique. On the other hand, it follows that a rigorous analysis of the ESM signals requires techniques that account for the discrete nature of a solid.« less

Improving predictions of large scale soil carbon dynamics: Integration of fine-scale hydrological and biogeochemical processes, scaling, and benchmarking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, W. J.; Dwivedi, D.; Ghimire, B.; Hoffman, F. M.; Pau, G. S. H.; Randerson, J. T.; Shen, C.; Tang, J.; Zhu, Q.

2015-12-01

Numerical model representations of decadal- to centennial-scale soil-carbon dynamics are a dominant cause of uncertainty in climate change predictions. Recent attempts by some Earth System Model (ESM) teams to integrate previously unrepresented soil processes (e.g., explicit microbial processes, abiotic interactions with mineral surfaces, vertical transport), poor performance of many ESM land models against large-scale and experimental manipulation observations, and complexities associated with spatial heterogeneity highlight the nascent nature of our community's ability to accurately predict future soil carbon dynamics. I will present recent work from our group to develop a modeling framework to integrate pore-, column-, watershed-, and global-scale soil process representations into an ESM (ACME), and apply the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) package for evaluation. At the column scale and across a wide range of sites, observed depth-resolved carbon stocks and their 14C derived turnover times can be explained by a model with explicit representation of two microbial populations, a simple representation of mineralogy, and vertical transport. Integrating soil and plant dynamics requires a 'process-scaling' approach, since all aspects of the multi-nutrient system cannot be explicitly resolved at ESM scales. I will show that one approach, the Equilibrium Chemistry Approximation, improves predictions of forest nitrogen and phosphorus experimental manipulations and leads to very different global soil carbon predictions. Translating model representations from the site- to ESM-scale requires a spatial scaling approach that either explicitly resolves the relevant processes, or more practically, accounts for fine-resolution dynamics at coarser scales. To that end, I will present recent watershed-scale modeling work that applies reduced order model methods to accurately scale fine-resolution soil carbon dynamics to coarse-resolution simulations. Finally, we contend that creating believable soil carbon predictions requires a robust, transparent, and community-available benchmarking framework. I will present an ILAMB evaluation of several of the above-mentioned approaches in ACME, and attempt to motivate community adoption of this evaluation approach.

Regional Arctic System Model (RASM): A Tool to Advance Understanding and Prediction of Arctic Climate Change at Process Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maslowski, W.; Roberts, A.; Osinski, R.; Brunke, M.; Cassano, J. J.; Clement Kinney, J. L.; Craig, A.; Duvivier, A.; Fisel, B. J.; Gutowski, W. J., Jr.; Hamman, J.; Hughes, M.; Nijssen, B.; Zeng, X.

2014-12-01

The Arctic is undergoing rapid climatic changes, which are some of the most coordinated changes currently occurring anywhere on Earth. They are exemplified by the retreat of the perennial sea ice cover, which integrates forcing by, exchanges with and feedbacks between atmosphere, ocean and land. While historical reconstructions from Global Climate and Global Earth System Models (GC/ESMs) are in broad agreement with these changes, the rate of change in the GC/ESMs remains outpaced by observations. Reasons for that stem from a combination of coarse model resolution, inadequate parameterizations, unrepresented processes and a limited knowledge of physical and other real world interactions. We demonstrate the capability of the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) in addressing some of the GC/ESM limitations in simulating observed seasonal to decadal variability and trends in the sea ice cover and climate. RASM is a high resolution, fully coupled, pan-Arctic climate model that uses the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. It uses the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) and Parallel Ocean Program (POP) configured at an eddy-permitting resolution of 1/12° as well as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) models at 50 km resolution. All RASM components are coupled via the CESM flux coupler (CPL7) at 20-minute intervals. RASM is an example of limited-area, process-resolving, fully coupled earth system model, which due to the additional constraints from lateral boundary conditions and nudging within a regional model domain facilitates detailed comparisons with observational statistics that are not possible with GC/ESMs. In this talk, we will emphasize the utility of RASM to understand sensitivity to variable parameter space, importance of critical processes, coupled feedbacks and ultimately to reduce uncertainty in arctic climate change projections.

Higher climatological temperature sensitivity of soil carbon in cold than warm climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koven, Charles D.; Hugelius, Gustaf; Lawrence, David M.; Wieder, William R.

2017-11-01

The projected loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere resulting from climate change is a potentially large but highly uncertain feedback to warming. The magnitude of this feedback is poorly constrained by observations and theory, and is disparately represented in Earth system models (ESMs). To assess the climatological temperature sensitivity of soil carbon, we calculate apparent soil carbon turnover times that reflect long-term and broad-scale rates of decomposition. Here, we show that the climatological temperature control on carbon turnover in the top metre of global soils is more sensitive in cold climates than in warm climates and argue that it is critical to capture this emergent ecosystem property in global-scale models. We present a simplified model that explains the observed high cold-climate sensitivity using only the physical scaling of soil freeze-thaw state across climate gradients. Current ESMs fail to capture this pattern, except in an ESM that explicitly resolves vertical gradients in soil climate and carbon turnover. An observed weak tropical temperature sensitivity emerges in a different model that explicitly resolves mineralogical control on decomposition. These results support projections of strong carbon-climate feedbacks from northern soils and demonstrate a method for ESMs to capture this emergent behaviour.

Radiocarbon constraints imply reduced carbon uptake by soils during the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

He, Yujie; Trumbore, Susan E.; Torn, Margaret S.; Harden, Jennifer W.; Vaughn, Lydia J.S.; Allison, Steven D.; Randerson, J.T.

2016-01-01

Soil is the largest terrestrial carbon reservoir and may influence the sign and magnitude of carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. Many Earth system models (ESMs) estimate a significant soil carbon sink by 2100, yet the underlying carbon dynamics determining this response have not been systematically tested against observations. We used 14C data from 157 globally distributed soil profiles sampled to 1 m depth to show that ESMs underestimated the mean age of soil carbon by more than six-fold (430±50 years vs. 3100±1800 years). Consequently, ESMs overestimated the carbon sequestration potential of soils by nearly two-fold (40±27%). These biases suggest that ESMs must better represent carbon stabilization processes and the turnover time of slow and passive reservoirs when simulating future atmospheric CO2 dynamics.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wieder, William R.; Allison, Steven D.; Davidson, Eric A.

Microbes influence soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition and the long-term stabilization of carbon (C) in soils. We contend that by revising the representation of microbial processes and their interactions with the physicochemical soil environment, Earth system models (ESMs) may make more realistic global C cycle projections. Explicit representation of microbial processes presents considerable challenges due to the scale at which these processes occur. Thus, applying microbial theory in ESMs requires a framework to link micro-scale process-level understanding and measurements to macro-scale models used to make decadal- to century-long projections. Here, we review the diversity, advantages, and pitfalls of simulating soilmore » biogeochemical cycles using microbial-explicit modeling approaches. We present a roadmap for how to begin building, applying, and evaluating reliable microbial-explicit model formulations that can be applied in ESMs. Drawing from experience with traditional decomposition models we suggest: (1) guidelines for common model parameters and output that can facilitate future model intercomparisons; (2) development of benchmarking and model-data integration frameworks that can be used to effectively guide, inform, and evaluate model parameterizations with data from well-curated repositories; and (3) the application of scaling methods to integrate microbial-explicit soil biogeochemistry modules within ESMs. With contributions across scientific disciplines, we feel this roadmap can advance our fundamental understanding of soil biogeochemical dynamics and more realistically project likely soil C response to environmental change at global scales.« less

Toward an in-situ analytics and diagnostics framework for earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anantharaj, Valentine; Wolf, Matthew; Rasch, Philip; Klasky, Scott; Williams, Dean; Jacob, Rob; Ma, Po-Lun; Kuo, Kwo-Sen

2017-04-01

The development roadmaps for many earth system models (ESM) aim for a globally cloud-resolving model targeting the pre-exascale and exascale systems of the future. The ESMs will also incorporate more complex physics, chemistry and biology - thereby vastly increasing the fidelity of the information content simulated by the model. We will then be faced with an unprecedented volume of simulation output that would need to be processed and analyzed concurrently in order to derive the valuable scientific results. We are already at this threshold with our current generation of ESMs at higher resolution simulations. Currently, the nominal I/O throughput in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) via Parallel IO (PIO) library is around 100 MB/s. If we look at the high frequency I/O requirements, it would require an additional 1 GB / simulated hour, translating to roughly 4 mins wallclock / simulated-day => 24.33 wallclock hours / simulated-model-year => 1,752,000 core-hours of charge per simulated-model-year on the Titan supercomputer at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility. There is also a pending need for 3X more volume of simulation output . Meanwhile, many ESMs use instrument simulators to run forward models to compare model simulations against satellite and ground-based instruments, such as radars and radiometers. The CFMIP Observation Simulator Package (COSP) is used in CESM as well as the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME), one of the ESMs specifically targeting current and emerging leadership-class computing platforms These simulators can be computationally expensive, accounting for as much as 30% of the computational cost. Hence the data are often written to output files that are then used for offline calculations. Again, the I/O bottleneck becomes a limitation. Detection and attribution studies also use large volume of data for pattern recognition and feature extraction to analyze weather and climate phenomenon such as tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, blizzards, etc. It is evident that ESMs need an in-situ framework to decouple the diagnostics and analytics from the prognostics and physics computations of the models so that the diagnostic computations could be performed concurrently without limiting model throughput. We are designing a science-driven online analytics framework for earth system models. Our approach is to adopt several data workflow technologies, such as the Adaptable IO System (ADIOS), being developed under the U.S. Exascale Computing Project (ECP) and integrate these to allow for extreme performance IO, in situ workflow integration, science-driven analytics and visualization all in a easy to use computational framework. This will allow science teams to write data 100-1000 times faster and seamlessly move from post processing the output for validation and verification purposes to performing these calculations in situ. We can easily and knowledgeably envision a near-term future where earth system models like ACME and CESM will have to address not only the challenges of the volume of data but also need to consider the velocity of the data. The earth system model of the future in the exascale era, as they incorporate more complex physics at higher resolutions, will be able to analyze more simulation content without having to compromise targeted model throughput.

A Global Data Analysis for Representing Sediment and Particulate Organic Carbon Yield in Earth System Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tan, Zeli; Leung, L. Ruby; Li, Hongyi

Although sediment yield (SY) from water erosion is ubiquitous and its environmental consequences are well recognized, its impacts on the global carbon cycle remain largely uncertain. This knowledge gap is partly due to the lack of soil erosion modeling in Earth System Models (ESMs), which are important tools used to understand the global carbon cycle and explore its changes. This study analyzed sediment and particulate organic carbon yield (CY) data from 1081 and 38 small catchments (0.1-200 km27 ), respectively, in different environments across the globe. Using multiple statistical analysis techniques, we explored environmental factors and hydrological processes important formore » SY and CY modeling in ESMs. Our results show clear correlations of high SY with traditional agriculture, seismicity and heavy storms, as well as strong correlations between SY and annual peak runoff. These highlight the potential limitation of SY models that represent only interrill and rill erosion because shallow overland flow and rill flow have limited transport capacity due to their hydraulic geometry to produce high SY. Further, our results suggest that SY modeling in ESMs should be implemented at the event scale to produce the catastrophic mass transport during episodic events. Several environmental factors such as seismicity and land management that are often not considered in current catchment-scale SY models can be important in controlling global SY. Our analyses show that SY is likely the primary control on CY in small catchments and a statistically significant empirical relationship is established to calculate SY and CY jointly in ESMs.« less

Seasonal variability of convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) in recent high-top CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakaria, Dzaki; Lubis, Sandro W.; Setiawan, Sonni

2018-05-01

Tropical weather system is controlled by periodic atmospheric disturbances ranging from daily to subseasonal time scales. One of the most prominent atmospheric disturbances in the tropics is convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs). CCEWs are excited by latent heating due to a large-scale convective system and have a significant influence on weather system. They include atmospheric equatorial Kelvin wave, Mixed Rossby Gravity (MRG) wave, Equatorial Rossby (ER) wave and Tropical Depression (TD-type) wave. In this study, we will evaluate the seasonal variability of CCEWs activity in nine high-top CMIP5 models, including their spatial distribution in the troposphere. Our results indicate that seasonal variability of Kelvin waves is well represented in MPI-ESM-LR and MPI-ESM-MR, with maximum activity occurring during boreal spring. The seasonal variability of MRG waves is well represented in CanESM2, HadGEM2-CC, IPSL-CM5A-LR and IPSL-CM5A-MR, with maximum activity observed during boreal summer. On the other hand, ER waves are well captured by IPSL-CM5A-LR and IPSL-CM5A-MR and maximize during boreal fall; while TD-type waves, with maximum activity observed during boreal summer, are well observed in CanESM2, HadGEM2-CC, IPSL-CM5A-LR and IPSL-CM5A-MR. Our results indicate that the skill of CMIP5 models in representing seasonal variability of CCEWs highly depends on the convective parameterization and the spatial or vertical resolution used by each model.

From the Last Interglacial to the Anthropocene: Modelling a Complete Glacial Cycle (PalMod)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brücher, Tim; Latif, Mojib

2017-04-01

We will give a short overview and update on the current status of the national climate modelling initiative PalMod (Paleo Modelling, www.palmod.de). PalMod focuses on the understanding of the climate system dynamics and its variability during the last glacial cycle. The initiative is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and its specific topics are: (i) to identify and quantify the relative contributions of the fundamental processes which determined the Earth's climate trajectory and variability during the last glacial cycle, (ii) to simulate with comprehensive Earth System Models (ESMs) the climate from the peak of the last interglacial - the Eemian warm period - up to the present, including the changes in the spectrum of variability, and (iii) to assess possible future climate trajectories beyond this century during the next millennia with sophisticated ESMs tested in such a way. The research is intended to be conducted over a period of 10 years, but with shorter funding cycles. PalMod kicked off in February 2016. The first phase focuses on the last deglaciation (app. the last 23.000 years). From the ESM perspective PalMod pushes forward model development by coupling ESM with dynamical ice sheet models. Computer scientists work on speeding up climate models using different concepts (like parallelisation in time) and one working group is dedicated to perform a comprehensive data synthesis to validate model performance. The envisioned approach is innovative in three respects. First, the consortium aims at simulating a full glacial cycle in transient mode and with comprehensive ESMs which allow full interactions between the physical and biogeochemical components of the Earth system, including ice sheets. Second, we shall address climate variability during the last glacial cycle on a large range of time scales, from interannual to multi-millennial, and attempt to quantify the relative contributions of external forcing and processes internal to the Earth system to climate variability at different time scales. Third, in order to achieve a higher level of understanding of natural climate variability at time scales of millennia, its governing processes and implications for the future climate, we bring together three different research communities: the Earth system modeling community, the proxy data community and the computational science community. The consortium consists of 18 partners including all major modelling centers within Germany. The funding comprises approximately 65 PostDoc positions and more than 120 scientists are involved. PalMod is coordinated at the Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR).

Using System Mass (SM), Equivalent Mass (EM), Equivalent System Mass (ESM) or Life Cycle Mass (LCM) in Advanced Life Support (ALS) Reporting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry

2003-01-01

The Advanced Life Support (ALS) has used a single number, Equivalent System Mass (ESM), for both reporting progress and technology selection. ESM is the launch mass required to provide a space system. ESM indicates launch cost. ESM alone is inadequate for technology selection, which should include other metrics such as Technology Readiness Level (TRL) and Life Cycle Cost (LCC) and also consider perfom.arxe 2nd risk. ESM has proven difficult to implement as a reporting metric, partly because it includes non-mass technology selection factors. Since it will not be used exclusively for technology selection, a new reporting metric can be made easier to compute and explain. Systems design trades-off performance, cost, and risk, but a risk weighted cost/benefit metric would be too complex to report. Since life support has fixed requirements, different systems usually have roughly equal performance. Risk is important since failure can harm the crew, but it is difficult to treat simply. Cost is not easy to estimate, but preliminary space system cost estimates are usually based on mass, which is better estimated than cost. Amass-based cost estimate, similar to ESM, would be a good single reporting metric. The paper defines and compares four mass-based cost estimates, Equivalent Mass (EM), Equivalent System Mass (ESM), Life Cycle Mass (LCM), and System Mass (SM). EM is traditional in life support and includes mass, volume, power, cooling and logistics. ESM is the specifically defined ALS metric, which adds crew time and possibly other cost factors to EM. LCM is a new metric, a mass-based estimate of LCC measured in mass units. SM includes only the factors of EM that are originally measured in mass, the hardware and logistics mass. All four mass-based metrics usually give similar comparisons. SM is by far the simplest to compute and easiest to explain.

The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M - Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iversen, T.; Bentsen, M.; Bethke, I.; Debernard, J. B.; Kirkevåg, A.; Seland, Ø.; Drange, H.; Kristjansson, J. E.; Medhaug, I.; Sand, M.; Seierstad, I. A.

2013-03-01

NorESM is a generic name of the Norwegian earth system model. The first version is named NorESM1, and has been applied with medium spatial resolution to provide results for CMIP5 (http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/index.html) without (NorESM1-M) and with (NorESM1-ME) interactive carbon-cycling. Together with the accompanying paper by Bentsen et al. (2012), this paper documents that the core version NorESM1-M is a valuable global climate model for research and for providing complementary results to the evaluation of possible anthropogenic climate change. NorESM1-M is based on the model CCSM4 operated at NCAR, but the ocean model is replaced by a modified version of MICOM and the atmospheric model is extended with online calculations of aerosols, their direct effect and their indirect effect on warm clouds. Model validation is presented in the companion paper (Bentsen et al., 2012). NorESM1-M is estimated to have equilibrium climate sensitivity of ca. 2.9 K and a transient climate response of ca. 1.4 K. This sensitivity is in the lower range amongst the models contributing to CMIP5. Cloud feedbacks dampen the response, and a strong AMOC reduces the heat fraction available for increasing near-surface temperatures, for evaporation and for melting ice. The future projections based on RCP scenarios yield a global surface air temperature increase of almost one standard deviation lower than a 15-model average. Summer sea-ice is projected to decrease considerably by 2100 and disappear completely for RCP8.5. The AMOC is projected to decrease by 12%, 15-17%, and 32% for the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. Precipitation is projected to increase in the tropics, decrease in the subtropics and in southern parts of the northern extra-tropics during summer, and otherwise increase in most of the extra-tropics. Changes in the atmospheric water cycle indicate that precipitation events over continents will become more intense and dry spells more frequent. Extra-tropical storminess in the Northern Hemisphere is projected to shift northwards. There are indications of more frequent occurrence of spring and summer blocking in the Euro-Atlantic sector, while the amplitude of ENSO events weakens although they tend to appear more frequently. These indications are uncertain because of biases in the model's representation of present-day conditions. Positive phase PNA and negative phase NAO both appear less frequently under the RCP8.5 scenario, but also this result is considered uncertain. Single-forcing experiments indicate that aerosols and greenhouse gases produce similar geographical patterns of response for near-surface temperature and precipitation. These patterns tend to have opposite signs, although with important exceptions for precipitation at low latitudes. The asymmetric aerosol effects between the two hemispheres lead to a southward displacement of ITCZ. Both forcing agents, thus, tend to reduce Northern Hemispheric subtropical precipitation.

A stand-alone tree demography and landscape structure module for Earth system models: integration with global forest data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haverd, V.; Smith, B.; Nieradzik, L. P.; Briggs, P. R.

2014-02-01

Poorly constrained rates of biomass turnover are a key limitation of Earth system models (ESM). In light of this, we recently proposed a new approach encoded in a model called Populations-Order-Physiology (POP), for the simulation of woody ecosystem stand dynamics, demography and disturbance-mediated heterogeneity. POP is suitable for continental to global applications and designed for coupling to the terrestrial ecosystem component of any ESM. POP bridges the gap between first generation Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs) with simple large-area parameterisations of woody biomass (typically used in current ESMs) and complex second generation DVMs, that explicitly simulate demographic processes and landscape heterogeneity of forests. The key simplification in the POP approach, compared with second-generation DVMs, is to compute physiological processes such as assimilation at grid-scale (with CABLE or a similar land surface model), but to partition the grid-scale biomass increment among age classes defined at sub grid-scale, each subject to its own dynamics. POP was successfully demonstrated along a savanna transect in northern Australia, replicating the effects of strong rainfall and fire disturbance gradients on observed stand productivity and structure. Here, we extend the application of POP to a range of forest types around the globe, employing paired observations of stem biomass and density from forest inventory data to calibrate model parameters governing stand demography and biomass evolution. The calibrated POP model is then coupled to the CABLE land surface model and the combined model (CABLE-POP) is evaluated against leaf-stem allometry observations from forest stands ranging in age from 3 to 200 yr. Results indicate that simulated biomass pools conform well with observed allometry. We conclude that POP represents a preferable alternative to large-area parameterisations of woody biomass turnover, typically used in current ESMs.

A new theory of plant-microbe nutrient competition resolves inconsistencies between observations and model predictions.

PubMed

Zhu, Qing; Riley, William J; Tang, Jinyun

2017-04-01

Terrestrial plants assimilate anthropogenic CO 2 through photosynthesis and synthesizing new tissues. However, sustaining these processes requires plants to compete with microbes for soil nutrients, which therefore calls for an appropriate understanding and modeling of nutrient competition mechanisms in Earth System Models (ESMs). Here, we survey existing plant-microbe competition theories and their implementations in ESMs. We found no consensus regarding the representation of nutrient competition and that observational and theoretical support for current implementations are weak. To reconcile this situation, we applied the Equilibrium Chemistry Approximation (ECA) theory to plant-microbe nitrogen competition in a detailed grassland 15 N tracer study and found that competition theories in current ESMs fail to capture observed patterns and the ECA prediction simplifies the complex nature of nutrient competition and quantitatively matches the 15 N observations. Since plant carbon dynamics are strongly modulated by soil nutrient acquisition, we conclude that (1) predicted nutrient limitation effects on terrestrial carbon accumulation by existing ESMs may be biased and (2) our ECA-based approach may improve predictions by mechanistically representing plant-microbe nutrient competition. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Constraining Centennial-Scale Ecosystem-Climate Interactions with a Pre-colonial Forest Reconstruction across the Upper Midwest and Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthes, J. H.; Dietze, M.; Fox, A. M.; Goring, S. J.; McLachlan, J. S.; Moore, D. J.; Poulter, B.; Quaife, T. L.; Schaefer, K. M.; Steinkamp, J.; Williams, J. W.

2014-12-01

Interactions between ecological systems and the atmosphere are the result of dynamic processes with system memories that persist from seconds to centuries. Adequately capturing long-term biosphere-atmosphere exchange within earth system models (ESMs) requires an accurate representation of changes in plant functional types (PFTs) through time and space, particularly at timescales associated with ecological succession. However, most model parameterization and development has occurred using datasets than span less than a decade. We tested the ability of ESMs to capture the ecological dynamics observed in paleoecological and historical data spanning the last millennium. Focusing on an area from the Upper Midwest to New England, we examined differences in the magnitude and spatial pattern of PFT distributions and ecotones between historic datasets and the CMIP5 inter-comparison project's large-scale ESMs. We then conducted a 1000-year model inter-comparison using six state-of-the-art biosphere models at sites that bridged regional temperature and precipitation gradients. The distribution of ecosystem characteristics in modeled climate space reveals widely disparate relationships between modeled climate and vegetation that led to large differences in long-term biosphere-atmosphere fluxes for this region. Model simulations revealed that both the interaction between climate and vegetation and the representation of ecosystem dynamics within models were important controls on biosphere-atmosphere exchange.

From land use to land cover: Restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment - earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Chini, Louise M.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

2014-11-27

Climate projections depend on scenarios of fossil fuel emissions and land use change, and the IPCC AR5 parallel process assumes consistent climate scenarios across Integrated Assessment and Earth System Models (IAMs and ESMs). To facilitate consistency, CMIP5 used a novel land use harmonization to provide ESMs with seamless, 1500-2100 land use trajectories generated by historical data and four IAMs. However, we have identified and partially addressed a major gap in the CMIP5 land coupling design. The CMIP5 Community ESM (CESM) global afforestation is only 22% of RCP4.5 afforestation from 2005 to 2100. Likewise, only 17% of the Global Change Assessmentmore » Model’s (GCAM’s) 2040 RCP4.5 afforestation signal, and none of the pasture loss, were transmitted to CESM within a newly integrated model. This is a critical problem because afforestation is necessary for achieving the RCP4.5 climate stabilization. We attempted to rectify this problem by modifying only the ESM component of the integrated model, enabling CESM to simulate 66% of GCAM’s afforestation in 2040, and 94% of GCAM’s pasture loss as grassland and shrubland losses. This additional afforestation increases vegetation carbon gain by 19 PgC and decreases atmospheric CO2 gain by 8 ppmv from 2005 to 2040, implying different climate scenarios between CMIP5 GCAM and CESM. Similar inconsistencies likely exist in other CMIP5 model results, primarily because land cover information is not shared between models, with possible contributions from afforestation exceeding model-specific, potentially viable forest area. Further work to harmonize land cover among models will be required to adequately rectify this problem.« less

8 years of experience in international, interdisciplinary and structured doctoral training in Earth system modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weitz, Antje; Stevens, Bjorn; Marotzke, Jochem

2010-05-01

The mission of the International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling (IMPRS-ESM) is to provide a high quality, modern and structured graduate education to students pursuing a doctoral degree in Earth system modelling. In so doing, the IMPRS-ESM also strives to advance the emerging discipline (or cross-discipline) of Earth system modelling; to provide a framework for attracting the most talented and creative young women and men from around the world to pursue their doctoral education in Germany; to provide advanced as well as specialized academic training and scientific guidance to doctoral students; to encourage academic networking and publication of research results; to better integrate doctoral research at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) with education and research at the University of Hamburg and other cooperating institutions. Core elements are rigorous selection of doctoral students, effective academic supervision, advanced academic training opportunities and interdisciplinary communication as well as administrative support. IMPRS-ESM graduates have been recognized with a variety of awards. 85% of our alumni continue a career in research. In this presentation we review the challenges for an interdisciplinary PhD program in Earth system sciences and the types of routines we have implemented to surmount them as well as key elements that we believe contribute to the success of our doctoral program.

A simple model of the effect of ocean ventilation on ocean heat uptake

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nadiga, Balasubramanya T.; Urban, Nathan Mark

Presentation includes slides on Earth System Models vs. Simple Climate Models; A Popular SCM: Energy Balance Model of Anomalies; On calibrating against one ESM experiment, the SCM correctly captures that ESM's surface warming response with other forcings; Multi-Model Analysis: Multiple ESMs, Single SCM; Posterior Distributions of ECS; However In Excess of 90% of TOA Energy Imbalance is Sequestered in the World Oceans; Heat Storage in the Two Layer Model; Heat Storage in the Two Layer Model; Including TOA Rad. Imbalance and Ocean Heat in Calibration Improves Repr., but Significant Errors Persist; Improved Vertical Resolution Does Not Fix Problem; A Seriesmore » of Expts. Confirms That Anomaly-Diffusing Models Cannot Properly Represent Ocean Heat Uptake; Physics of the Thermocline; Outcropping Isopycnals and Horizontally-Averaged Layers; Local interactions between outcropping isopycnals leads to non-local interactions between horizontally-averaged layers; Both Surface Warming and Ocean Heat are Well Represented With Just 4 Layers; A Series of Expts. Confirms That When Non-Local Interactions are Allowed, the SCMs Can Represent Both Surface Warming and Ocean Heat Uptake; and Summary and Conclusions.« less

Can Earth System Model Provide Reasonable Natural Runoff Estimates to Support Water Management Studies?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kao, S. C.; Shi, X.; Kumar, J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Mao, J.; Thornton, P. E.

2017-12-01

With the concern of changing hydrologic regime, there is a crucial need to better understand how water availability may change and influence water management decisions in the projected future climate conditions. Despite that surface hydrology has long been simulated by land model within the Earth System modeling (ESM) framework, given the coarser horizontal resolution and lack of engineering-level calibration, raw runoff from ESM is generally discarded by water resource managers when conducting hydro-climate impact assessments. To identify a likely path to improve the credibility of ESM-simulated natural runoff, we conducted regional model simulation using the land component (ALM) of the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) version 1 focusing on the conterminous United States (CONUS). Two very different forcing data sets, including (1) the conventional 0.5° CRUNCEP (v5, 1901-2013) and (2) the 1-km Daymet (v3, 1980-2013) aggregated to 0.5°, were used to conduct 20th century transient simulation with satellite phenology. Additional meteorologic and hydrologic observations, including PRISM precipitation and U.S. Geological Survey WaterWatch runoff, were used for model evaluation. For various CONUS hydrologic regions (such as Pacific Northwest), we found that Daymet can significantly improve the reasonableness of simulated ALM runoff even without intensive calibration. The large dry bias of CRUNCEP precipitation (evaluated by PRISM) in multiple CONUS hydrologic regions is believed to be the main reason causing runoff underestimation. The results suggest that when driving with skillful precipitation estimates, ESM has the ability to produce reasonable natural runoff estimates to support further water management studies. Nevertheless, model calibration will be required for regions (such as Upper Colorado) where ill performance is showed for multiple different forcings.

Evaluation of eggshell membrane-based bio-adsorbent for solid-phase extraction of linear alkylbenzene sulfonates coupled with high-performance liquid chromatography.

PubMed

Wang, Weidong; Chen, Bo; Huang, Yuming; Cao, Jia

2010-09-03

The potential of eggshell membrane (ESM) as a novel solid-phase extraction bio-adsorbent was investigated in the present study. The ESM with a unique structure of intricate lattice network showed a predominant ability to capture linear alkylbenzene sulfonates (LAS) as a model of organic pollutants by the hydrophobic interactions between ESM and LAS molecular at pH very close to the isoelectric point of ESM, which was similar to the most widely used trapping mechanism for SPE. Under the optimal conditions, the breakthrough capacities of the ESM packed cartridge for C10-C13 LAS homologues were found to be 30, 53, 50, and 43microgg(-1), respectively. On the basis of high-performance liquid chromatography separation and UV detection of LAS homologues, the proposed system could respond down to 0.027ngmL(-1) of LAS with a linear calibration range from 0.2 to 100ngmL(-1), showing a good LAS enrichment ability of eggshell membrane biomaterial with high sensitivity, and could be successfully used for the detection of residual LAS in environmental water samples. The reproducibility among columns was satisfactory (RSD among columns is less than 10%). A comparison study with ESM, C8 and C18 as adsorbents for LAS demonstrated that ESM-based bio-adsorbent was advantageous over C8 and C18, the widely used traditional adsorbents. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterizing moisture sources over Mediterranean Basin in a Regional Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batibeniz, F.; Ashfaq, M.; Turuncoglu, U. U.; Onol, B.

2017-12-01

We investigate precipitation dynamics over the Mediterranean region using Reanalysis data and a coupled Regional Earth System Model (RegESM). The RegESM model is run in coupled (RegCM4 coupled with ROMS) and uncoupled mode (atmosphere -land only) for 1979-2013 period using Era-Interim Reanalysis. RegESM incorporates atmosphere, ocean, river routing and wave components and thereby is better capable to improve the understanding of coupled climate system processes. We compare two model configurations to investigate the role of air sea interaction in the simulation of key processes that govern precipitation variability over the study region. Seasonal trend analyses have been performed to understand the changes in precipitation tendencies over the 35 years of the simulation period and observations. Additionally, two moisture flux analyses (Eulerian and Lagrangian) have been implemented to understand the role of various oceanic and terrestrial evaporative sources in seasonal precipitation distribution and long-term trends over the Mediterranean basin. In Eulerian approach, we use 7 different terrestrial regions to identify sources and sinks using the inflows and outflows from their boundaries. In Lagrangian approach, we divide the whole region in 9 parts to backtrack moisture coming from each region to the core Mediterranean region at intra-seasonal time-scales. Variation in the moisture contribution from each source region is investigated to quantify its role in the observed precipitation variability particularly during the extreme wet and dry years. Overall, our results highlight the importance of air-sea interaction in precipitation distribution at intra-seasonal to inter-decadal timescales over Mediterranean region as coupled RegESM configuration is able to improve of many limitations that are found in the standalone configuration.

Empirical Succession Mapping and Data Assimilation to Constrain Demographic Processes in an Ecosystem Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, R.; Andrews, T.; Dietze, M.

2015-12-01

Shifts in ecological communities in response to environmental change have implications for biodiversity, ecosystem function, and feedbacks to global climate change. Community composition is fundamentally the product of demography, but demographic processes are simplified or missing altogether in many ecosystem, Earth system, and species distribution models. This limitation arises in part because demographic data are noisy and difficult to synthesize. As a consequence, demographic processes are challenging to formulate in models in the first place, and to verify and constrain with data thereafter. Here, we used a novel analysis of the USFS Forest Inventory Analysis to improve the representation of demography in an ecosystem model. First, we created an Empirical Succession Mapping (ESM) based on ~1 million individual tree observations from the eastern U.S. to identify broad demographic patterns related to forest succession and disturbance. We used results from this analysis to guide reformulation of the Ecosystem Demography model (ED), an existing forest simulator with explicit tree demography. Results from the ESM reveal a coherent, cyclic pattern of change in temperate forest tree size and density over the eastern U.S. The ESM captures key ecological processes including succession, self-thinning, and gap-filling, and quantifies the typical trajectory of these processes as a function of tree size and stand density. Recruitment is most rapid in early-successional stands with low density and mean diameter, but slows as stand density increases; mean diameter increases until thinning promotes recruitment of small-diameter trees. Strikingly, the upper bound of size-density space that emerges in the ESM conforms closely to the self-thinning power law often observed in ecology. The ED model obeys this same overall size-density boundary, but overestimates plot-level growth, mortality, and fecundity rates, leading to unrealistic emergent demographic patterns. In particular, the current ED formulation cannot capture steady state dynamics evident in the ESM. Ongoing efforts are aimed at reformulating ED to more closely approach overall forest dynamics evident in the ESM, and then assimilating inventory data to constrain model parameters and initial conditions.

Emergent Hydrological Regimes in Amazonia Determine Vegetation Productivity and Structure.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahlström, A.; Canadell, J.; Schurgers, G.; Berry, J. A.; Guan, K.; Jackson, R. B.

2016-12-01

The Amazon rain forest has a disproportionate significance for global CO2 storage and biodiversity. Earth system models (ESMs) that estimate future climate and vegetation show little agreement in simulations in Amazonia. Here we show that evapotranspiration (ET), gross primary productivity (GPP) and above ground biomass in both models and empirical data align on an emergent hydrologically determined relationship that describes a functional relationship with annual precipitation (P). The physical relationship describes the potential for plant productivity and has a breakpoint at 2000 mm annual precipitation, where the system transitions between water and radiation limitation of annual ET. While ESM GPP is generally underestimated due to a low-bias in their internally generated P, their response to annual precipitation generally matches empirical data. It is different for biomass: ESMs show some ability in capturing biomass levels in the energy-limited wet hydrological regime above 2000 mm annual precipitation but they do not fully capture the biomass structure tipping point found in empirical data at the hydrological regime breakpoint that coincide with the forest-savanna transition. This discrepancy is likely due to the relatively simple representation of disturbances, primarily fires, and vegetation dynamics found in ESMs, and implies that ESMs likely overestimate the resilience to a potential future drying of the Amazon. Future elevated CO2 may increase plant water use efficiency and shift GPP upwards, but it will not affect the breakpoint between the regimes or the susceptibility of the forest which are both determined by precipitation and its role in determining the hydrological regime. This analysis reconciles and explains the findings of many studies on the Amazon. Our results suggests that future Amazonian biomass is governed by changes in precipitation, vegetation dynamics and disturbances, none of which are well predicted and represented by ESMs. Improvements of these processes are the most pressing challenges for more accurate future predictions on the fate of the Amazon and the global tropics.

A modified impulse-response representation of the global near-surface air temperature and atmospheric concentration response to carbon dioxide emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, Richard J.; Nicholls, Zebedee R.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Allen, Myles R.

2017-06-01

Projections of the response to anthropogenic emission scenarios, evaluation of some greenhouse gas metrics, and estimates of the social cost of carbon often require a simple model that links emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) to atmospheric concentrations and global temperature changes. An essential requirement of such a model is to reproduce typical global surface temperature and atmospheric CO2 responses displayed by more complex Earth system models (ESMs) under a range of emission scenarios, as well as an ability to sample the range of ESM response in a transparent, accessible and reproducible form. Here we adapt the simple model of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) to explicitly represent the state dependence of the CO2 airborne fraction. Our adapted model (FAIR) reproduces the range of behaviour shown in full and intermediate complexity ESMs under several idealised carbon pulse and exponential concentration increase experiments. We find that the inclusion of a linear increase in 100-year integrated airborne fraction with cumulative carbon uptake and global temperature change substantially improves the representation of the response of the climate system to CO2 on a range of timescales and under a range of experimental designs.

Tropical Carbon Response to Seasonal Phasing and Intensity of Precipitation in CMIP5 Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basile, S.; Keppel-Aleks, G.

2016-12-01

Carbon cycling and water fluxes are connected over land. Understanding the current sensitivity of tropical ecosystems to climate drivers, such as precipitation, at short timescales is important for projecting future trends in the land sink of anthropogenic CO2. Several recent studies have shown that interannual droughts in 2005 and 2010 reduced net carbon uptake in the Amazon rainforest. In 2011 Southern Hemisphere semi-arid regions, especially Australian ecosystems, were found to largely contribute to the above average increase in the land carbon sink following consecutive wet seasons under La Nina conditions. Earth system models (ESMs) are able to simulate these sensitivities with varying degrees of fidelity, and ESMs also show a wide range of changes in precipitation phasing and intensity by 2100. Unsurprisingly, model projections of the land carbon sink also vary widely, with some simulations showing land becoming a CO2 source to the atmosphere. To constrain projections of the tropical land carbon balance among an ensemble of ESMs, we analyzed seasonal and interannual precipitation-carbon relationships in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ESMs for the period from 1982-2006. The sensitivity of net biospheric production on land (NBP) to precipitation was quantified on seasonal and annual timescales, and NBP was spatially correlated to precipitation across tropical and subtropical regions (+/- 30 degrees) within humid and semi-arid ecosystems. This analysis was expanded to soil moisture and drought metrics were used to distinguish between wet and dry seasons. Large scale precipitation was used to resolve Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) movement and convective precipitation was used to diagnose the short-term NBP response within the wet season. Results revealed a spread in NBP sensitivity to precipitation intensity as well as how individual models simulated precipitation phasing across different tropical regions.

Do state-of-the-art CMIP5 ESMs accurately represent observed vegetation-rainfall feedbacks? Focus on the Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Notaro, M.; Wang, F.; Yu, Y.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Wei, Y.

2017-12-01

The semi-arid Sahel ecoregion is an established hotspot of land-atmosphere coupling. Ocean-land-atmosphere interactions received considerable attention by modeling studies in response to the devastating 1970s-90s Sahel drought, which models suggest was driven by sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies and amplified by local vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks. Vegetation affects the atmosphere through biophysical feedbacks by altering the albedo, roughness, and transpiration and thereby modifying exchanges of energy, momentum, and moisture with the atmosphere. The current understanding of these potentially competing processes is primarily based on modeling studies, with biophysical feedbacks serving as a key uncertainty source in regional climate change projections among Earth System Models (ESMs). In order to reduce this uncertainty, it is critical to rigorously evaluate the representation of vegetation feedbacks in ESMs against an observational benchmark in order to diagnose systematic biases and their sources. However, it is challenging to successfully isolate vegetation's feedbacks on the atmosphere, since the atmospheric control on vegetation growth dominates the atmospheric feedback response to vegetation anomalies and the atmosphere is simultaneously influenced by oceanic and terrestrial anomalies. In response to this challenge, a model-validated multivariate statistical method, Stepwise Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (SGEFA), is developed, which extracts the forcing of a slowly-evolving environmental variable [e.g. SST or leaf area index (LAI)] on the rapidly-evolving atmosphere. By applying SGEFA to observational and remotely-sensed data, an observational benchmark is established for Sahel vegetation feedbacks. In this work, the simulated responses in key atmospheric variables, including evapotranspiration, albedo, wind speed, vertical motion, temperature, stability, and rainfall, to Sahel LAI anomalies are statistically assessed in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ESMs through SGEFA. The dominant mechanism, such as albedo feedback, moisture recycling, or momentum feedback, in each ESM is evaluated against the observed benchmark. SGEFA facilitates a systematic assessment of model biases in land-atmosphere interactions.

The use and misuse of V(c,max) in Earth System Models.

PubMed

Rogers, Alistair

2014-02-01

Earth System Models (ESMs) aim to project global change. Central to this aim is the need to accurately model global carbon fluxes. Photosynthetic carbon dioxide assimilation by the terrestrial biosphere is the largest of these fluxes, and in many ESMs is represented by the Farquhar, von Caemmerer and Berry (FvCB) model of photosynthesis. The maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco, commonly termed V c,max, is a key parameter in the FvCB model. This study investigated the derivation of the values of V c,max used to represent different plant functional types (PFTs) in ESMs. Four methods for estimating V c,max were identified; (1) an empirical or (2) mechanistic relationship was used to relate V c,max to leaf N content, (3) V c,max was estimated using an approach based on the optimization of photosynthesis and respiration or (4) calibration of a user-defined V c,max to obtain a target model output. Despite representing the same PFTs, the land model components of ESMs were parameterized with a wide range of values for V c,max (-46 to +77% of the PFT mean). In many cases, parameterization was based on limited data sets and poorly defined coefficients that were used to adjust model parameters and set PFT-specific values for V c,max. Examination of the models that linked leaf N mechanistically to V c,max identified potential changes to fixed parameters that collectively would decrease V c,max by 31% in C3 plants and 11% in C4 plants. Plant trait data bases are now available that offer an excellent opportunity for models to update PFT-specific parameters used to estimate V c,max. However, data for parameterizing some PFTs, particularly those in the Tropics and the Arctic are either highly variable or largely absent.

Reliability Impacts in Life Support Architecture and Technology Selection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lange Kevin E.; Anderson, Molly S.

2012-01-01

Quantitative assessments of system reliability and equivalent system mass (ESM) were made for different life support architectures based primarily on International Space Station technologies. The analysis was applied to a one-year deep-space mission. System reliability was increased by adding redundancy and spares, which added to the ESM. Results were thus obtained allowing a comparison of the ESM for each architecture at equivalent levels of reliability. Although the analysis contains numerous simplifications and uncertainties, the results suggest that achieving necessary reliabilities for deep-space missions will add substantially to the life support ESM and could influence the optimal degree of life support closure. Approaches for reducing reliability impacts were investigated and are discussed.

A Comparative Analysis of Phase-Change Wastewater Processing Approaches for Microgravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lange, Kevin

2016-01-01

Two phase-change wastewater processing candidates, the ISS Vapor Compression Distillation (VCD) System and the Cascade Distiller System (CDS), are compared based on dynamic modeling of both technologies. Differences in fluid handling and energy recovery for the technologies are described and contrasted. Model predictions are presented showing how temperatures, pressures, and compositions vary locally within each distiller. These dynamic variations are difficult to observe experimentally and have implications regarding non-condensable buildup and salt precipitation potential. Alternative architectures involving VCD and CDS components are analyzed in terms of predicted performance and equivalent system mass (ESM). The addition of a downstream brine processor to increase water recovery is also evaluated. Options for reducing overall ESM are discussed, including the possibility of developing a single precipitation-tolerant primary wastewater processor.

A stand-alone tree demography and landscape structure module for Earth system models: integration with inventory data from temperate and boreal forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haverd, V.; Smith, B.; Nieradzik, L. P.; Briggs, P. R.

2014-08-01

Poorly constrained rates of biomass turnover are a key limitation of Earth system models (ESMs). In light of this, we recently proposed a new approach encoded in a model called Populations-Order-Physiology (POP), for the simulation of woody ecosystem stand dynamics, demography and disturbance-mediated heterogeneity. POP is suitable for continental to global applications and designed for coupling to the terrestrial ecosystem component of any ESM. POP bridges the gap between first-generation dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) with simple large-area parameterisations of woody biomass (typically used in current ESMs) and complex second-generation DVMs that explicitly simulate demographic processes and landscape heterogeneity of forests. The key simplification in the POP approach, compared with second-generation DVMs, is to compute physiological processes such as assimilation at grid-scale (with CABLE (Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange) or a similar land surface model), but to partition the grid-scale biomass increment among age classes defined at sub-grid-scale, each subject to its own dynamics. POP was successfully demonstrated along a savanna transect in northern Australia, replicating the effects of strong rainfall and fire disturbance gradients on observed stand productivity and structure. Here, we extend the application of POP to wide-ranging temporal and boreal forests, employing paired observations of stem biomass and density from forest inventory data to calibrate model parameters governing stand demography and biomass evolution. The calibrated POP model is then coupled to the CABLE land surface model, and the combined model (CABLE-POP) is evaluated against leaf-stem allometry observations from forest stands ranging in age from 3 to 200 year. Results indicate that simulated biomass pools conform well with observed allometry. We conclude that POP represents an ecologically plausible and efficient alternative to large-area parameterisations of woody biomass turnover, typically used in current ESMs.

Potential impact of climate change on groundwater resources in the Central Huai Luang Basin, Northeast Thailand.

PubMed

Pholkern, Kewaree; Saraphirom, Phayom; Srisuk, Kriengsak

2018-08-15

The Central Huai Luang Basin is one of the important rice producing areas of Udon Thani Province in Northeastern Thailand. The basin is underlain by the rock salt layers of the Maha Sarakham Formation and is the source of saline groundwater and soil salinity. The regional and local groundwater flow systems are the major mechanisms responsible for spreading saline groundwater and saline soils in this basin. Climate change may have an impact on groundwater recharge, on water table depth and the consequences of waterlogging, and on the distribution of soil salinity in this basin. Six future climate conditions from the SEACAM and CanESM2 models were downscaled to investigate the potential impact of future climate conditions on groundwater quantity and quality in this basin. The potential impact was investigated by using a set of numerical models, namely HELP3 and SEAWAT, to estimate the groundwater recharge and flow and the salt transport of groundwater simulation, respectively. The results revealed that within next 30years (2045), the future average annual temperature is projected to increase by 3.1°C and 2.2°C under SEACAM and CanESM2 models, respectively, while the future precipitation is projected to decrease by 20.85% under SEACAM and increase by 18.35% under the CanESM2. Groundwater recharge is projected to increase under the CanESM2 model and to slightly decrease under the SEACAM model. Moreover, for all future climate conditions, the depths of the groundwater water table are projected to continuously increase. The results showed the impact of climate change on salinity distribution for both the deep and shallow groundwater systems. The salinity distribution areas are projected to increase by about 8.08% and 56.92% in the deep and shallow groundwater systems, respectively. The waterlogging areas are also projected to expand by about 63.65% from the baseline period. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

CortiQ-based Real-Time Functional Mapping for Epilepsy Surgery.

PubMed

Kapeller, Christoph; Korostenskaja, Milena; Prueckl, Robert; Chen, Po-Ching; Lee, Ki Heyeong; Westerveld, Michael; Salinas, Christine M; Cook, Jane C; Baumgartner, James E; Guger, Christoph

2015-06-01

To evaluate the use of the cortiQ-based mapping system (g.tec medication engineering GmbH, Austria) for real-time functional mapping (RTFM) and to compare it to results from electrical cortical stimulation mapping (ESM) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Electrocorticographic activity was recorded in 3 male patients with intractable epilepsy by using cortiQ mapping system and analyzed in real time. Activation related to motor, sensory, and receptive language tasks was determined by evaluating the power of the high gamma frequency band (60-170 Hz). The sensitivity and specificity of RTFM were tested against ESM and fMRI results. "Next-neighbor" approach demonstrated [sensitivity/specificity %] (1) RTFM against ESM: 100.00/79.70 for hand motor; 100.00/73.87 for hand sensory; -/87 for language (it was not identified by the ESM); (2) RTFM against fMRI: 100.00/84.4 for hand motor; 66.70/85.35 for hand sensory; and 87.85/77.70 for language. The results of the quantitative "next-neighbor" RTFM evaluation were concordant to those from ESM and fMRI. The RTFM correlates well with localization of hand motor function provided by ESM and fMRI, which may offer added localization in the operating room and guidance for extraoperative ESM mapping. Real-time functional mapping correlates with fMRI language activation when ESM findings are negative. It has fewer limitations than ESM and greater flexibility in activation paradigms and measuring responses.

Towards improved and more routine Earth system model evaluation in CMIP

DOE PAGES

Eyring, Veronika; Gleckler, Peter J.; Heinze, Christoph; ...

2016-11-01

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has successfully provided the climate community with a rich collection of simulation output from Earth system models (ESMs) that can be used to understand past climate changes and make projections and uncertainty estimates of the future. Confidence in ESMs can be gained because the models are based on physical principles and reproduce many important aspects of observed climate. More research is required to identify the processes that are most responsible for systematic biases and the magnitude and uncertainty of future projections so that more relevant performance tests can be developed. At the same time,more » there are many aspects of ESM evaluation that are well established and considered an essential part of systematic evaluation but have been implemented ad hoc with little community coordination. Given the diversity and complexity of ESM analysis, we argue that the CMIP community has reached a critical juncture at which many baseline aspects of model evaluation need to be performed much more efficiently and consistently. We provide a perspective and viewpoint on how a more systematic, open, and rapid performance assessment of the large and diverse number of models that will participate in current and future phases of CMIP can be achieved, and announce our intention to implement such a system for CMIP6. Accomplishing this could also free up valuable resources as many scientists are frequently "re-inventing the wheel" by re-writing analysis routines for well-established analysis methods. A more systematic approach for the community would be to develop and apply evaluation tools that are based on the latest scientific knowledge and observational reference, are well suited for routine use, and provide a wide range of diagnostics and performance metrics that comprehensively characterize model behaviour as soon as the output is published to the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). The CMIP infrastructure enforces data standards and conventions for model output and documentation accessible via the ESGF, additionally publishing observations (obs4MIPs) and reanalyses (ana4MIPs) for model intercomparison projects using the same data structure and organization as the ESM output. This largely facilitates routine evaluation of the ESMs, but to be able to process the data automatically alongside the ESGF, the infrastructure needs to be extended with processing capabilities at the ESGF data nodes where the evaluation tools can be executed on a routine basis. Efforts are already underway to develop community-based evaluation tools, and we encourage experts to provide additional diagnostic codes that would enhance this capability for CMIP. And, at the same time, we encourage the community to contribute observations and reanalyses for model evaluation to the obs4MIPs and ana4MIPs archives. The intention is to produce through the ESGF a widely accepted quasi-operational evaluation framework for CMIP6 that would routinely execute a series of standardized evaluation tasks. Over time, as this capability matures, we expect to produce an increasingly systematic characterization of models which, compared with early phases of CMIP, will more quickly and openly identify the strengths and weaknesses of the simulations. This will also reveal whether long-standing model errors remain evident in newer models and will assist modelling groups in improving their models. Finally, this framework will be designed to readily incorporate updates, including new observations and additional diagnostics and metrics as they become available from the research community.« less

Earth System Models Underestimate Soil Carbon Diagnostic Times in Dry and Cold Regions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, W.; Xia, J.; Zhou, X.; Huang, K.; Huang, Y.; Jian, Z.; Jiang, L.; Xu, X.; Liang, J.; Wang, Y. P.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

Soils contain the largest organic carbon (C) reservoir in the Earth's surface and strongly modulate the terrestrial feedback to climate change. Large uncertainty exists in current Earth system models (ESMs) in simulating soil organic C (SOC) dynamics, calling for a systematic diagnosis on their performance based on observations. Here, we built a global database of SOC diagnostic time (i.e.,turnover times; τsoil) measured at 320 sites with four different approaches. We found that the estimated τsoil was comparable among approaches of 14C dating () (median with 25 and 75 percentiles), 13C shifts due to vegetation change () and the ratio of stock over flux (), but was shortest from laboratory incubation studies (). The state-of-the-art ESMs underestimated the τsoil in most biomes, even by >10 and >5 folds in cold and dry regions, respectively. Moreover,we identified clear negative dependences of τsoil on temperature and precipitation in both of the observational and modeling results. Compared with Community Land Model (version 4), the incorporation of soil vertical profile (CLM4.5) could substantially extend the τsoil of SOC. Our findings suggest the accuracy of climate-C cycle feedback in current ESMs could be enhanced by an improved understanding of SOC dynamics under the limited hydrothermal conditions.

Bioregenerative food system cost based on optimized menus for advanced life support

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waters, Geoffrey C R.; Olabi, Ammar; Hunter, Jean B.; Dixon, Mike A.; Lasseur, Christophe

2002-01-01

Optimized menus for a bioregenerative life support system have been developed based on measures of crop productivity, food item acceptability, menu diversity, and nutritional requirements of crew. Crop-specific biomass requirements were calculated from menu recipe demands while accounting for food processing and preparation losses. Under the assumption of staggered planting, the optimized menu demanded a total crop production area of 453 m2 for six crew. Cost of the bioregenerative food system is estimated at 439 kg per menu cycle or 7.3 kg ESM crew-1 day-1, including agricultural waste processing costs. On average, about 60% (263.6 kg ESM) of the food system cost is tied up in equipment, 26% (114.2 kg ESM) in labor, and 14% (61.5 kg ESM) in power and cooling. This number is high compared to the STS and ISS (nonregenerative) systems but reductions in ESM may be achieved through intensive crop productivity improvements, reductions in equipment masses associated with crop production, and planning of production, processing, and preparation to minimize the requirement for crew labor.

Distribution of N2O in the atmosphere under global warming - a simulation study with the MPI Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kracher, Daniela; Manzini, Elisa; Reick, Christian H.; Schultz, Martin; Stein, Olaf

2014-05-01

Climate change is driven by an increasing release of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide (N2O). Besides fossil fuel burning, also land use change and land management are anthropogenic sources of GHGs. Especially inputs of reactive nitrogen via fertilizer and deposition lead to enhanced emissions of N2O. One effect of a drastic future increase in surface temperature is a modification of atmospheric circulation, e.g. an accelerated Brewer Dobson circulation affecting the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere. N2O is inert in the troposphere and decayed only in the stratosphere. Thus, changes in atmospheric circulation, especially changes in the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere, will affect the atmospheric transport, decay, and distribution of N2O. In our study we assess the impact of global warming on atmospheric circulation and implied effects on the distribution and lifetime of atmospheric N2O. As terrestrial N2O emissions are highly determined by inputs of reactive nitrogen - the location of which being determined by human choice - we examine in particular the importance of latitudinal source regions of N2O for its global distribution. For this purpose we apply the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, MPI-ESM. MPI-ESM consists of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM, the land surface model JSBACH, and MPIOM/HAMOCC representing ocean circulation and ocean biogeochemistry. Prognostic atmospheric N2O concentrations in MPI-ESM are determined by land N2O emissions, ocean N2O exchange and atmospheric tracer transport. As stratospheric chemistry is not explicitly represented in MPI-ESM, stratospheric decay rates of N2O are prescribed from a MACC MOZART simulation.

Initialization shock in decadal hindcasts due to errors in wind stress over the tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohlmann, Holger; Kröger, Jürgen; Greatbatch, Richard J.; Müller, Wolfgang A.

2017-10-01

Low prediction skill in the tropical Pacific is a common problem in decadal prediction systems, especially for lead years 2-5 which, in many systems, is lower than in uninitialized experiments. On the other hand, the tropical Pacific is of almost worldwide climate relevance through its teleconnections with other tropical and extratropical regions and also of importance for global mean temperature. Understanding the causes of the reduced prediction skill is thus of major interest for decadal climate predictions. We look into the problem of reduced prediction skill by analyzing the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) decadal hindcasts for the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project and performing a sensitivity experiment in which hindcasts are initialized from a model run forced only by surface wind stress. In both systems, sea surface temperature variability in the tropical Pacific is successfully initialized, but most skill is lost at lead years 2-5. Utilizing the sensitivity experiment enables us to pin down the reason for the reduced prediction skill in MPI-ESM to errors in wind stress used for the initialization. A spurious trend in the wind stress forcing displaces the equatorial thermocline in MPI-ESM unrealistically. When the climate model is then switched into its forecast mode, the recovery process triggers artificial El Niño and La Niña events at the surface. Our results demonstrate the importance of realistic wind stress products for the initialization of decadal predictions.

PanEurasian Experiment (PEEX): Modelling Platform for Earth System Observations and Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baklanov, Alexander; Mahura, Alexander; Penenko, Vladimir; Zilitinkevich, Sergej; Kulmala, Markku

2014-05-01

As the part of the PEEX initiative, for the purpose of supporting the PEEX observational system and answering on the PEEX scientific questions, a hierarchy/ framework of modern multi-scale models for different elements of the Earth System integrated with the observation system is needed. One of the acute topics in the international debate on land-atmosphere interactions in relation to global change is the Earth System Modeling (ESM). The question is whether the ESM components actually represent how the Earth is functioning. The ESMs consist of equations describing the processes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, terrestrial and marine biosphere. ESMs are the best tools for analyzing the effect of different environmental changes on future climate or for studying the role of whole processes in the Earth System. These types of analysis and prediction of the future change are especially important in the Arctic latitudes, where climate change is proceeding fastest and where near-surface warming has been about twice the global average during the recent decades. The processes, and hence parameterization, in ESMs are still based on insufficient knowledge of physical, chemical and biological mechanisms involved in the climate system and the resolution of known processes is insufficient. Global scale modeling of land-atmosphere-ocean interactions using ESMs provides a way to explore the influence of spatial and temporal variation in the activities of land system and on climate. There is a lack, however, ways to forward a necessary process understanding effectively to ESMs and to link all this to the decision-making process. Arctic-boreal geographical domain plays significant role in terms of green-house gases and anthropogenic emissions and as an aerosol source area in the Earth System. The PEEX Modelling Platform (PEEX-MP) is characterized by: • An ensemble approach with the integration of modelling results from different models/ countries etc.; • A hierarchy of models, analysing scenarios, inverse modelling, modelling based on measurement needs and processes; • Model validation by remote sensing data and assimilation of satellite observations to constrain models to better understand processes, e.g., emissions and fluxes with top-down modelling; • Geophysical/ chemical model validation with experiments at various spatial and temporal scales. Added value of the comprehensive multi-platform observations and modeling; network of monitoring stations with the capacity to quantify those interactions between neighboring areas ranging from the Arctic and the Mediterranean to the Chinese industrial areas and the Asian steppes is needed. For example, apart from development of Russian stations in the PEEX area a strong co-operation with surrounding research infrastructures in the model of ACTRIS network needs to be established in order to obtain a global perspective of the emissions transport, transformation and ageing of pollutants incoming and exiting the PEEX area. The PEEX-MP aims to simulate and predict the physical aspects of the Earth system and to improve understanding of the bio-geochemical cycles in the PEEX domain, and beyond. The environmental change in this region implies that, from the point-of-view of atmospheric flow, the lower boundary conditions are changing. This is important for applications with immediate relevance for society, such as numerical weather prediction. The PEEX infrastructure will provide a unique view to the physical properties of the Earth surface, which can be used to improve assessment and prediction models. This will directly benefit citizens of the North in terms of better early warning of hazardous events, for instance. On longer time-scales, models of the bio-geochemical cycles in the PEEX domain absolutely need support from the new monitoring infra-structure to better measure and quantify soil and vegetation properties. In the most basic setup, the atmospheric and oceanic Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are connected to each other, sharing e.g. fluxes of momentum, water vapour and CO2. Traditionally, the land compartment has been an integral part of the atmospheric model, but in most modern ESMs the land model has been clearly separated. In most cases, the GCMs are complemented by other additional sub models covering, for example, atmospheric chemistry and aerosols, biogeochemistry or dynamic vegetation. Although the models can communicate also directly with each other, usually a separate coupler is used as an interface between different sub models. One of the main PEEX modelling activities is to evaluate process-models of chemistry-biota-atmosphere interactions in Pan Eurasian region and to improve GCM parameterizations. PEEX scientific plan is designed to serve a research chain that aims to advance our understanding of climate and air quality through a series of connected activities beginning at the molecular scale and extending to the regional and global scales. Past variations in climate in Pan Eurasian regions and corresponding forcing agents would be revealed by analysis of firn and ice cores in glaciers and ice sheets. A combination of direct and inverse modelling will be applied to diagnosing, designing, monitoring, and forecasting of air pollution in Siberia and Eurasia. Regional models coupled with the global one by means of orthogonal decomposition methods allow one to correctly introduce data about the global processes onto the regional level where environmental quality control strategies are typically implemented. Proceeding from the above mentioned limitations, a new concept and methodology considering the concept of 'one-atmosphere' as two-way interacted meteorological and chemical processes is suggested. The atmospheric chemistry transport models should include not only health-effecting pollutants (air quality components), but also green-house gases and aerosols effecting climate, meteorological processes, etc. Such concept requests a strategy of new generation integrated chemistry-climate modelling systems for predicting atmospheric composition, meteorology and climate change. The on-line integration of meteorological/ climate models and atmospheric aerosol and chemical transport models gives a possibility to utilise all meteorological 3D fields at each time step and to consider feedbacks of air pollution (e.g. aerosols) on meteorological processes and climate forcing, and further on the chemical composition (as a chain of dependent processes). This promising way for future atmospheric simulation systems (as a part of and a step to ESMs) will be considered in PEEX. It will lead to a new generation of models for climatic, meteorological, environmental and chemical weather forecasting.

Advanced Life Support System Value Metric

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry W.; Arnold, James O. (Technical Monitor)

1999-01-01

The NASA Advanced Life Support (ALS) Program is required to provide a performance metric to measure its progress in system development. Extensive discussions within the ALS program have reached a consensus. The Equivalent System Mass (ESM) metric has been traditionally used and provides a good summary of the weight, size, and power cost factors of space life support equipment. But ESM assumes that all the systems being traded off exactly meet a fixed performance requirement, so that the value and benefit (readiness, performance, safety, etc.) of all the different systems designs are exactly equal. This is too simplistic. Actual system design concepts are selected using many cost and benefit factors and the system specification is then set accordingly. The ALS program needs a multi-parameter metric including both the ESM and a System Value Metric (SVM). The SVM would include safety, maintainability, reliability, performance, use of cross cutting technology, and commercialization potential. Another major factor in system selection is technology readiness level (TRL), a familiar metric in ALS. The overall ALS system metric that is suggested is a benefit/cost ratio, [SVM + TRL]/ESM, with appropriate weighting and scaling. The total value is the sum of SVM and TRL. Cost is represented by ESM. The paper provides a detailed description and example application of the suggested System Value Metric.

Application of Energy Integration Techniques to the Design of Advanced Life Support Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levri, Julie; Finn, Cory

2000-01-01

Exchanging heat between hot and cold streams within an advanced life support system can save energy. This savings will reduce the equivalent system mass (ESM) of the system. Different system configurations are examined under steady-state conditions for various percentages of food growth and waste treatment. The scenarios investigated represent possible design options for a Mars reference mission. Reference mission definitions are drawn from the ALSS Modeling and Analysis Reference Missions Document, which includes definitions for space station evolution, Mars landers, and a Mars base. For each scenario, streams requiring heating or cooling are identified and characterized by mass flow, supply and target temperatures and heat capacities. The Pinch Technique is applied to identify good matches for energy exchange between the hot and cold streams and to calculate the minimum external heating and cooling requirements for the system. For each pair of hot and cold streams that are matched, there will be a reduction in the amount of external heating and cooling required, and the original heating and cooling equipment will be replaced with a heat exchanger. The net cost savings can be either positive or negative for each stream pairing, and the priority for implementing each pairing can be ranked according to its potential cost savings. Using the Pinch technique, a complete system heat exchange network is developed and heat exchangers are sized to allow for calculation of ESM. The energy-integrated design typically has a lower total ESM than the original design with no energy integration. A comparison of ESM savings in each of the scenarios is made to direct future Pinch Analysis efforts.

A physiologically-based plant hydraulics scheme for ESMs: impacts of hydraulic trait variability for tropical forests under drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christoffersen, B. O.; Xu, C.; Fisher, R.; Fyllas, N.; Gloor, M.; Fauset, S.; Galbraith, D.; Koven, C.; Knox, R. G.; Kueppers, L. M.; Chambers, J. Q.; Meir, P.; McDowell, N. G.

2016-12-01

A major challenge of Earth System Models (ESMs) is to capture the diversity of individual-level responses to changes in water availability. Yet, decades of research in plant physiological ecology have given us a means to quantify central tendencies and variances of plant hydraulic traits. If ESMs possessed the relevant hydrodynamic process structure, these traits could be incorporated into improved predictions of community- and ecosystem-level processes such as tree mortality. We present a model of plant hydraulics in which all parameters are biologically-interpretable and measurable traits, such as turgor loss point πtlp, bulk elastic modulus ɛ, hydraulic capacitance Cft, xylem hydraulic conductivity ks,max, water potential at 50 % loss of conductivity for both xylem (P50,x) and stomata (P50,gs). We applied this scheme to tropical forests by incorporating it into both an individual-based model `Trait Forest Simulator' (TFS) and the `Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator' (FATES; derived from CLM(ED)), and explore the consequences of variability in plant hydraulic traits on simulated leaf water potential, a potentially powerful predictor of tree mortality. We show that, independent of the difference between P50,gs and P50,x, or the hydraulic safety margin (HSM), diversity in hydraulic traits can increase or decrease whole-ecosystem resistance to hydraulic failure, and thus ecosystem-level responses to drought. Key uncertainties remaining concern how coordination and trade-offs in hydraulic traits are parameterized. We conclude that inclusion of such a physiologically-based plant hydraulics scheme in ESMs will greatly improve the capability of ESMs to predict functional trait filtering within ecosystems in responding to environmental change.

Evaluating Carbon and Climate Sensitivities of the NOAA/GFDL Earth System Model ESM2Mb to Forcing Perturbations during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tandy, H.; Shevliakova, E.; Keller, G.

2017-12-01

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 55.5 Myr) was a period of rapid warming resulting from major changes in the carbon cycle and has been cited as the closest historical analogue to anthropogenic carbon release. Up to now, modeling studies of the PETM used either a low-resolution coupled model of the ocean and atmosphere with prescribed CO2 or CH4, or coupled climate-carbon models of intermediate complexity (i.e. simplified ocean or atmosphere). In this study we carried a suit of numerical experiments with the NOAA/GFDL comprehensive atmosphere-ocean coupled model with integrated terrestrial and marine carbon cycle components, known as an Earth System Model (ESM2Mb). We analyzed the output from millennia-scale ESM2Mb simulations with different combinations of forcings from the pre-PETM and PETM, including greenhouse gas concentrations and solar intensity. In addition we explore sensitivities of climate and carbon cycling to changes in geology such as topography, continental positions, and the presence and absence of large land glaciers. Furthermore, we examine ESM2Mb climate and carbon sensitivities to PETM conditions with a focus on how alternate conditions and forcings relate to the uncertainty in the climate and carbon cycling estimates from paleo observations. We explore changes in atmosphere, land, and ocean temperatures and circulation patterns as well as vegetation distribution, permafrost, and carbon storage in terrestrial and marine ecosystems from pre-PETM to PETM conditions. We found that with the present day land/sea mask and land glaciers in ESM2Mb, changes in only greenhouse gas concentrations (CO2 and CH4) from pre-PETM to PETM conditions induce global warming of 3-5 °C, consistent with the lower range of estimates from paleo proxies. Changes in the carbon permafrost storage from warming cannot explain the rapid increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Changes in the ocean circulation and carbon storage critically depend on geological conditions such as continental positions. The study illustrates how models designed for studying future climate change can capture past paleo events, such as the PETM, and how modern day geological conditions may affect climate and carbon cycle sensitivities.

Towards a universal model for carbon dioxide uptake by plants

DOE PAGES

Wang, Han; Prentice, I. Colin; Keenan, Trevor F.; ...

2017-09-04

Gross primary production (GPP) - the uptake of carbon dioxide (CO 2) by leaves, and its conversion to sugars by photosynthesis - is the basis for life on land. Earth System Models (ESMs) incorporating the interactions of land ecosystems and climate are used to predict the future of the terrestrial sink for anthropogenic CO 2. ESMs require accurate representation of GPP. However, current ESMs disagree on how GPP responds to environmental variations, suggesting a need for a more robust theoretical framework for modelling. Here in this work, we focus on a key quantity for GPP, the ratio of leaf internalmore » to external CO 2 (χ). χ is tightly regulated and depends on environmental conditions, but is represented empirically and incompletely in today's models. We show that a simple evolutionary optimality hypothesis predicts specific quantitative dependencies of χ on temperature, vapour pressure deficit and elevation; and that these same dependencies emerge from an independent analysis of empirical χ values, derived from a worldwide dataset of >3,500 leaf stable carbon isotope measurements. A single global equation embodying these relationships then unifies the empirical light-use efficiency model with the standard model of C 3 photosynthesis, and successfully predicts GPP measured at eddy-covariance flux sites. This success is notable given the equation's simplicity and broad applicability across biomes and plant functional types. Finally, it provides a theoretical underpinning for the analysis of plant functional coordination across species and emergent properties of ecosystems, and a potential basis for the reformulation of the controls of GPP in next-generation ESMs.« less

Towards a universal model for carbon dioxide uptake by plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Han; Prentice, I. Colin; Keenan, Trevor F.

Gross primary production (GPP) - the uptake of carbon dioxide (CO 2) by leaves, and its conversion to sugars by photosynthesis - is the basis for life on land. Earth System Models (ESMs) incorporating the interactions of land ecosystems and climate are used to predict the future of the terrestrial sink for anthropogenic CO 2. ESMs require accurate representation of GPP. However, current ESMs disagree on how GPP responds to environmental variations, suggesting a need for a more robust theoretical framework for modelling. Here in this work, we focus on a key quantity for GPP, the ratio of leaf internalmore » to external CO 2 (χ). χ is tightly regulated and depends on environmental conditions, but is represented empirically and incompletely in today's models. We show that a simple evolutionary optimality hypothesis predicts specific quantitative dependencies of χ on temperature, vapour pressure deficit and elevation; and that these same dependencies emerge from an independent analysis of empirical χ values, derived from a worldwide dataset of >3,500 leaf stable carbon isotope measurements. A single global equation embodying these relationships then unifies the empirical light-use efficiency model with the standard model of C 3 photosynthesis, and successfully predicts GPP measured at eddy-covariance flux sites. This success is notable given the equation's simplicity and broad applicability across biomes and plant functional types. Finally, it provides a theoretical underpinning for the analysis of plant functional coordination across species and emergent properties of ecosystems, and a potential basis for the reformulation of the controls of GPP in next-generation ESMs.« less

Seasonal variation of the global mixed layer depth: comparison between Argo data and FIO-ESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yutong; Xu, Haiming; Qiao, Fangli; Dong, Changming

2018-03-01

The present study evaluates a simulation of the global ocean mixed layer depth (MLD) using the First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model (FIOESM). The seasonal variation of the global MLD from the FIO-ESM simulation is compared to Argo observational data. The Argo data show that the global ocean MLD has a strong seasonal variation with a deep MLD in winter and a shallow MLD in summer, while the spring and fall seasons act as transitional periods. Overall, the FIO-ESM simulation accurately captures the seasonal variation in MLD in most areas. It exhibits a better performance during summer and fall than during winter and spring. The simulated MLD in the Southern Hemisphere is much closer to observations than that in the Northern Hemisphere. In general, the simulated MLD over the South Atlantic Ocean matches the observation best among the six areas. Additionally, the model slightly underestimates the MLD in parts of the North Atlantic Ocean, and slightly overestimates the MLD over the other ocean basins.

Death of Darkness: Artificial Sky Brightness in the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zender, C. S.

2016-12-01

Many species (including ours) need darkness to survive and thrive yet light pollution in the anthropocene has received scant attention in Earth System Models (ESMs). Anthropogenic aerosols can brighten background sky brightness and reduce the contrast between skylight and starlight. These are both aesthetic and health-related issues due to their accompanying disruption of circadian rhythms. We quantify aerosol contributions to light pollution using a single-column night sky model, NiteLite, suitable for implementation in ESMs. NiteLite accounts for physiologcal (photopic and scotopic vision, retinal diameter/age), anthropogenic (light and aerosol pollution properties), and natural (surface albedo, trace gases) effects on background brightness and threshold visibility. We find that stratospheric aerosol injection contemplated as a stop-gap measure to counter global warming would increase night-sky brightness by about 25%, and thus eliminate last pristine dark sky areas on Earth. Our results suggest that ESMs incorporate light pollution so that associated societal impacts can be better quantified and included in policy deliberations.

On the reduced lifetime of nitrous oxide due to climate change induced acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation as simulated by the MPI Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kracher, D.; Manzini, E.; Reick, C. H.; Schultz, M. G.; Stein, O.

2014-12-01

Greenhouse gas induced climate change will modify the physical conditions of the atmosphere. One of the projected changes is an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in the stratosphere, as it has been shown in many model studies. This change in the stratospheric circulation consequently bears an effect on the transport and distribution of atmospheric components such as N2O. Since N2O is involved in ozone destruction, a modified distribution of N2O can be of importance for ozone chemistry. N2O is inert in the troposphere and decays only in the stratosphere. Thus, changes in the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere can also affect the stratospheric sink of N2O, and consequently its atmospheric lifetime. N2O is a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential of currently approximately 300 CO2-equivalents in a 100-year perspective. A faster decay in atmospheric N2O mixing ratios, i.e. a decreased atmospheric lifetime of N2O, will also reduce its global warming potential. In order to assess the impact of climate change on atmospheric circulation and implied effects on the distribution and lifetime of atmospheric N2O, we apply the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, MPI-ESM. MPI-ESM consists of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM, the land surface model JSBACH, and MPIOM/HAMOCC representing ocean circulation and ocean biogeochemistry. Prognostic atmospheric N2O concentrations in MPI-ESM are determined by land N2O emissions, ocean-atmosphere N2O exchange and atmospheric tracer transport. As stratospheric chemistry is not explicitly represented in MPI-ESM, stratospheric decay rates of N2O are prescribed from a MACC MOZART simulation. Increasing surface temperatures and CO2 concentrations in the stratosphere impact atmospheric circulation differently. Thus, we conduct a series of transient runs with the atmospheric model of MPI-ESM to isolate different factors governing a shift in atmospheric circulation. From those transient simulations we diagnose decreasing tropospheric N2O concentrations, increased transport of N2O from the troposphere to the stratosphere, and increasing stratospheric decay of N2O leading to a reduction in atmospheric lifetime of N2O, in dependency to climate change evolution.

Advanced Life Support System Value Metric

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry W.; Rasky, Daniel J. (Technical Monitor)

1999-01-01

The NASA Advanced Life Support (ALS) Program is required to provide a performance metric to measure its progress in system development. Extensive discussions within the ALS program have led to the following approach. The Equivalent System Mass (ESM) metric has been traditionally used and provides a good summary of the weight, size, and power cost factors of space life support equipment. But ESM assumes that all the systems being traded off exactly meet a fixed performance requirement, so that the value and benefit (readiness, performance, safety, etc.) of all the different systems designs are considered to be exactly equal. This is too simplistic. Actual system design concepts are selected using many cost and benefit factors and the system specification is defined after many trade-offs. The ALS program needs a multi-parameter metric including both the ESM and a System Value Metric (SVM). The SVM would include safety, maintainability, reliability, performance, use of cross cutting technology, and commercialization potential. Another major factor in system selection is technology readiness level (TRL), a familiar metric in ALS. The overall ALS system metric that is suggested is a benefit/cost ratio, SVM/[ESM + function (TRL)], with appropriate weighting and scaling. The total value is given by SVM. Cost is represented by higher ESM and lower TRL. The paper provides a detailed description and example application of a suggested System Value Metric and an overall ALS system metric.

Higher education provision using systems thinking approach - case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhukaram, Anandhi Vivekanandan; Sgouropoulou, Cleo; Feldman, Gerald; Amini, Ardavan

2018-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to highlight the complexities involved in higher education provision and how systems thinking and socio-technical systems (STS) thinking approach can be used to understand the education ecosystem. Systems thinking perspective is provided using two case studies: the development of European Learner Mobility (EuroLM) service and the delivery of Enterprise System Management (ESM) course at the Birmingham City University, UK. The case studies present how systems thinking using STS approaches like applied organisational change and Cognitive Work Analysis can be used to capture a conceptual model of the education system for understanding the interactions and relationships between the people, technology, processes and the organisations. Using systems thinking perspective, EuroLM has developed a set of technical standards addressed to the European systems developers and ESM delivery ensures that students communicate and collaborate.

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the first and second largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which is itself the largest driver of present-day climate change1. Projections of fossil fuel consumption and land-use change are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESM) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing2,3. While empirical datasets are available to inform historical analyses4,5, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use based on energy economic models, constrained using historical and present-day data and forced with assumptionsmore » about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories6. Here we show that the influence of biospheric change – the integrated effect of climatic, ecological, and geochemical processes – on land ecosystems has a significant impact on energy, agriculture, and land-use projections for the 21st century. Such feedbacks have been ignored in previous ESM studies of future climate. We find that synchronous exposure of land ecosystem productivity in the economic system to biospheric change as it develops in an ESM results in a 10% reduction of land area used for crop cultivation; increased managed forest area and land carbon; a 15-20% decrease in global crop price; and a 17% reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario7. These simulation results demonstrate that biospheric change can significantly alter primary human system forcings to the climate system. This synchronous two-way coupling approach removes inconsistencies in description of climate change between human and biosphere components of the coupled model, mitigating a major source of uncertainty identified in assessments of future climate projections8-10.« less

Vegetation masking effect on future warming and snow albedo feedback in a boreal forest region of northern Eurasia according to MIROC-ESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe, Manabu; Takata, Kumiko; Kawamiya, Michio; Watanabe, Shingo

2017-09-01

The Earth system model, Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-Earth system model (MIROC-ESM), in which the leaf area index (LAI) is calculated interactively with an ecological land model, simulated future changes in the snow water equivalent under the scenario of global warming. Using MIROC-ESM, the effects of the snow albedo feedback (SAF) in a boreal forest region of northern Eurasia were examined under the possible climate future scenario RCP8.5. The simulated surface air temperature (SAT) in spring greatly increases across Siberia and the boreal forest region, whereas the snow cover decreases remarkably only in western Eurasia. The large increase in SAT across Siberia is attributed to strong SAF, which is caused by both the reduced snow-covered fraction and the reduced surface albedo of the snow-covered portion due to the vegetation masking effect in those grid cells. A comparison of the future changes with and without interactive LAI changes shows that in Siberia, the vegetation masking effect increases the spring SAF by about two or three times and enhances the spring warming by approximately 1.5 times. This implies that increases in vegetation biomass in the future are a potential contributing factor to warming trends and that further research on the vegetation masking effect is needed for reliable future projection.

Decadal prediction of European soil moisture from 1961 to 2010 using a regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mieruch-Schnuelle, S.; Schädler, G.; Feldmann, H.

2014-12-01

The German national research program on decadal climate prediction(MiKlip) aims at the development of an operational decadal predictionsystem. To explore the potential of decadal predictions a hindcastensemble from 1961 to 2010 has been generated by the MPI-ESM, the newEarth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Toimprove the decadal predictions on higher spatial resolutions wedownscaled the MPI-ESM simulations by the regional model COSMO-CLM(CCLM) for Europe. In this study we will characterize and validatethe predictability of extreme states of soil moisture in Europesimulated by the MPI-ESM and the value added by the CCLM. The wateramount stored in the soil is a crucial component of the climate systemand especially important for agriculture, and has an influence onevaporation, groundwater and runoff. Thus, skillful prediction of soilmoisture in the order of years up to a decade could be used tomitigate risk and benefit society. Since soil moisture observationsare rare and validation of model output is difficult, we will ratherinvestigate the effective drought index (EDI), which can be retrievedsolely from precipitation data. Therefore we show that the EDI is agood estimator of the soil water content.

Impact of physical permafrost processes on hydrological change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagemann, Stefan; Blome, Tanja; Beer, Christian; Ekici, Altug

2015-04-01

Permafrost or perennially frozen ground is an important part of the terrestrial cryosphere; roughly one quarter of Earth's land surface is underlain by permafrost. As it is a thermal phenomenon, its characteristics are highly dependent on climatic factors. The impact of the currently observed warming, which is projected to persist during the coming decades due to anthropogenic CO2 input, certainly has effects for the vast permafrost areas of the high northern latitudes. The quantification of these effects, however, is scientifically still an open question. This is partly due to the complexity of the system, where several feedbacks are interacting between land and atmosphere, sometimes counterbalancing each other. Moreover, until recently, many global circulation models (GCMs) and Earth system models (ESMs) lacked the sufficient representation of permafrost physics in their land surface schemes. Within the European Union FP7 project PAGE21, the land surface scheme JSBACH of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology ESM (MPI-ESM) has been equipped with the representation of relevant physical processes for permafrost studies. These processes include the effects of freezing and thawing of soil water for both energy and water cycles, thermal properties depending on soil water and ice contents, and soil moisture movement being influenced by the presence of soil ice. In the present study, it will be analysed how these permafrost relevant processes impact projected hydrological changes over northern hemisphere high latitude land areas. For this analysis, the atmosphere-land part of MPI-ESM, ECHAM6-JSBACH, is driven by prescribed SST and sea ice in an AMIP2-type setup with and without the newly implemented permafrost processes. Observed SST and sea ice for 1979-1999 are used to consider induced changes in the simulated hydrological cycle. In addition, simulated SST and sea ice are taken from a MPI-ESM simulation conducted for CMIP5 following the RCP8.5 scenario. The corresponding simulations with ECHAM6-JSBACH are used to assess differences in projected hydrological changes induced by the permafrost relevant processes.

An Overview of the Concept of Operations for Assembly, Integration, Testing and Ground Servicing Develoed for the MPCV-ESM Propulsion System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bielozer, M.; VanLear, Benjamin S.; Kindred, N.; Monien, G.; Schulte, U.

2014-01-01

A concept of operations for the Assembly, Integration and Testing (AIT) and the Ground Systems Development Operations (GSDO) of the European Service Module (ESM) propulsion system has been developed. The AIT concept of operations covers all fabrication, integration and testing activities in both Europe and in the United States. The GSDO Program develops the facilities, equipment, and procedures for the loading of hypergolic propellants, the filling of high-pressure gases, and contingency de-servicing operations for the ESM. NASA and ESA along with the Lockheed Martin and Airbus Space and Defense are currently working together for the EM-1 and EM-2 missions in which the ESM will be flown as part of the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV). The NASA/ESA SM propulsion team is collaborating with the AIT personnel from ESA/Airbus and NASA/Lockheed Martin to ensure successful integration of the European designed Service Module propulsion system, the Lockheed Martin designed Crew Module Adapter and the heritage Space Shuttle Orbital Maneuvering System Engines (OMS-E) being provided as Government Furnished Equipment (GFE). This paper will provide an overview of the current AIT and GSDO concept of operations for the ESM propulsion system.

An Overview of the Concept of Operations for Assembly, Integration, Testing and Ground Servicing Developed for the MPCV-ESM Propulsion System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bielozer, Matthew C.

2014-01-01

A concept of operations for the Assembly, Integration and Testing (AIT) and the Ground Systems Development Operations (GSDO) of the European Service Module (ESM) propulsion system has been developed. The AIT concept of operations covers all fabrication, integration and testing activities in both Europe and in the United States. The GSDO Program develops the facilities, equipment, and procedures for the loading of hypergolic propellants, the filling of high-pressure gases, and contingency de-servicing operations for the ESM. NASA and ESA along with the Lockheed Martin and Airbus Space and Defense are currently working together for the EM-1 and EM-2 missions in which the ESM will be flown as part of the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV). The NASA/ESA SM propulsion team is collaborating with the AIT personnel from ESA/Airbus and NASA/Lockheed Martin to ensure successful integration of the European designed Service Module propulsion system, the Lockheed Martin designed Crew Module Adapter and the heritage Space Shuttle Orbital Maneuvering System Engines (OMS-E) being provided as Government Furnished Equipment (GFE). This paper will provide an overview of the current AIT and GSDO concept of operations for the ESM propulsion system.

Climate Variability and Wildfires: Insights from Global Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, D. S.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; Lamarque, J. F.; Wittenberg, A. T.

2016-12-01

Better understanding of the relationship between variability in global climate and emissions from wildfires is needed for predictions of fire activity on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. Here we investigate this relationship using the long, preindustrial control simulations and historical ensembles of two Earth System models; CESM1 and the NOAA/GFDL ESM2Mb. There is smaller interannual variability of global fires in both models than in present day inventories, especially in boreal regions where observed fires vary substantially from year to year. Patterns of fire response to climate oscillation indices, including the El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Meridional Oscillation (AMO) are explored with the model results and compared to the response derived from satellite measurements and proxy observations. Increases in fire emissions in southeast Asia and boreal North America are associated with positive ENSO and PDO, while United States fires and Sahel fires decrease for the same climate conditions. Boreal fire emissions decrease in CESM1 for the warm phase of the AMO, while ESM2Mb did not produce a reliable AMO. CESM1 produces a weak negative trend in global fire emissions for the period 1920 to 2005, while ESM2Mb produces a positive trend over the same period. Both trends are statistically significant at a confidence level of 95% or greater given the variability derived from the respective preindustrial controls. In addition to climate variability impacts on fires, we also explore the impacts of fire emissions on climate variability and atmospheric chemistry. We analyze three long, free-evolving ESM2Mb simulations; one without fire emissions, one with constant year-over-year fire emissions based on a present day inventory, and one with interannually varying fire emissions coupled between the terrestrial and atmospheric components of the model, to gain a better understanding of the role of fire emissions in climate over long timescales.

A Functional Response Metric for the Temperature Sensitivity of Tropical Ecosystems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Basile, Samantha J.; Hoffman, Forrest M.

Earth system models (ESMs) simulate a large spread in carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change, particularly in their prediction of cumulative changes in terrestrial carbon storage. Evaluating the performance of ESMs against observations and assessing the likelihood of long-term climate predictions are crucial for model development. Here, we assessed the use of atmospheric CO 2 growth rate variations to evaluate the sensitivity of tropical ecosystem carbon fluxes to interannual temperature variations. We found that the temperature sensitivity of the observed CO 2 growth rate depended on the time scales over which atmospheric CO 2 observations were averaged. The temperature sensitivitymore » of the CO 2 growth rate during Northern Hemisphere winter is most directly related to the tropical carbon flux sensitivity since winter variations in Northern Hemisphere carbon fluxes are relatively small. This metric can be used to test the fidelity of interactions between the physical climate system and terrestrial ecosystems within ESMs, which is especially important since the short-term relationship between ecosystem fluxes and temperature stress may be related to the long-term feedbacks between ecosystems and climate. If the interannual temperature sensitivity is used to constrain long-term temperature responses, the inferred sensitivity may be biased by 20%, unless the seasonality of the relationship between the observed CO 2 growth rate and tropical fluxes is taken into account. Lastly, these results suggest that atmospheric data can be used directly to evaluate regional land fluxes from ESMs, but underscore that the interaction between the time scales for land surface processes and those for atmospheric processes must be considered.« less

A Functional Response Metric for the Temperature Sensitivity of Tropical Ecosystems

DOE PAGES

Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Basile, Samantha J.; Hoffman, Forrest M.

2018-04-23

Earth system models (ESMs) simulate a large spread in carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change, particularly in their prediction of cumulative changes in terrestrial carbon storage. Evaluating the performance of ESMs against observations and assessing the likelihood of long-term climate predictions are crucial for model development. Here, we assessed the use of atmospheric CO 2 growth rate variations to evaluate the sensitivity of tropical ecosystem carbon fluxes to interannual temperature variations. We found that the temperature sensitivity of the observed CO 2 growth rate depended on the time scales over which atmospheric CO 2 observations were averaged. The temperature sensitivitymore » of the CO 2 growth rate during Northern Hemisphere winter is most directly related to the tropical carbon flux sensitivity since winter variations in Northern Hemisphere carbon fluxes are relatively small. This metric can be used to test the fidelity of interactions between the physical climate system and terrestrial ecosystems within ESMs, which is especially important since the short-term relationship between ecosystem fluxes and temperature stress may be related to the long-term feedbacks between ecosystems and climate. If the interannual temperature sensitivity is used to constrain long-term temperature responses, the inferred sensitivity may be biased by 20%, unless the seasonality of the relationship between the observed CO 2 growth rate and tropical fluxes is taken into account. Lastly, these results suggest that atmospheric data can be used directly to evaluate regional land fluxes from ESMs, but underscore that the interaction between the time scales for land surface processes and those for atmospheric processes must be considered.« less

Towards a more efficient and robust representation of subsurface hydrological processes in Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosolem, R.; Rahman, M.; Kollet, S. J.; Wagener, T.

2017-12-01

Understanding the impacts of land cover and climate changes on terrestrial hydrometeorology is important across a range of spatial and temporal scales. Earth System Models (ESMs) provide a robust platform for evaluating these impacts. However, current ESMs lack the representation of key hydrological processes (e.g., preferential water flow, and direct interactions with aquifers) in general. The typical "free drainage" conceptualization of land models can misrepresent the magnitude of those interactions, consequently affecting the exchange of energy and water at the surface as well as estimates of groundwater recharge. Recent studies show the benefits of explicitly simulating the interactions between subsurface and surface processes in similar models. However, such parameterizations are often computationally demanding resulting in limited application for large/global-scale studies. Here, we take a different approach in developing a novel parameterization for groundwater dynamics. Instead of directly adding another complex process to an established land model, we examine a set of comprehensive experimental scenarios using a very robust and establish three-dimensional hydrological model to develop a simpler parameterization that represents the aquifer to land surface interactions. The main goal of our developed parameterization is to simultaneously maximize the computational gain (i.e., "efficiency") while minimizing simulation errors in comparison to the full 3D model (i.e., "robustness") to allow for easy implementation in ESMs globally. Our study focuses primarily on understanding both the dynamics for groundwater recharge and discharge, respectively. Preliminary results show that our proposed approach significantly reduced the computational demand while model deviations from the full 3D model are considered to be small for these processes.

An Overview of the GIS Weasel

USGS Publications Warehouse

Viger, Roland J.

2008-01-01

This fact sheet provides a high-level description of the GIS Weasel, a software system designed to aid users in preparing spatial information as input to lumped and distributed parameter environmental simulation models (ESMs). The GIS Weasel provides geographic information system (GIS) tools to help create maps of geographic features relevant to the application of a user?s ESM and to generate parameters from those maps. The operation of the GIS Weasel does not require a user to be a GIS expert, only that a user has an understanding of the spatial information requirements of the model. The GIS Weasel software system provides a GIS-based graphical user interface (GUI), C programming language executables, and general utility scripts. The software will run on any computing platform where ArcInfo Workstation (version 8.1 or later) and the GRID extension are accessible. The user controls the GIS Weasel by interacting with menus, maps, and tables.

Extension and applications of switching model: Range theory, multiple scattering model of Goudsmit-Saunderson, and lateral spread treatment of Marwick-Sigmund

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikegami, Seiji

2017-09-01

The switching model (PSM) developed in the previous paper is extended to obtain an ;extended switching model (ESM). In the ESM, the mixt electronic-and-nuclear energy-loss region, in addition to the electronic and nuclear energy-loss regions in PSM, is taken into account analytically and appropriately. This model is combined with a small-angle multiple scattering range theory considering both nuclear and electronic stopping effects developed by Marwick-Sigmund and Valdes-Arista to formulate a improved range theory. The ESM is also combined with the multiple scattering theory with non-small angle approximation by Goudsmit-Saunderson. Furthermore, we applied ESM to lateral spread model of Marwick-Sigmund. Numerical calculations of the entire distribution functions including one of the mixt region are roughly and approximately possible. However, exact numerical calculation may be impossible. Consequently, several preliminary numerical calculations of the electronic, mixt, and nuclear regions are performed to examine their underlying behavior with respect to the incident energy, the scattering angle, the outgoing projectile intensity, and the target thickness. We show the numerical results not only of PSM and but also of ESM. Both numerical results are shown in the present paper for the first time. Since the theoretical relations are constructed using reduced variables, the calculations are made only on the case of C colliding on C.

Integrating land management into Earth system models: the importance of land use transitions at sub-grid-scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pongratz, Julia; Wilkenskjeld, Stiig; Kloster, Silvia; Reick, Christian

2014-05-01

Recent studies indicate that changes in surface climate and carbon fluxes caused by land management (i.e., modifications of vegetation structure without changing the type of land cover) can be as large as those caused by land cover change. Further, such effects may occur on substantial areas: while about one quarter of the land surface has undergone land cover change, another fifty percent are managed. This calls for integration of management processes in Earth system models (ESMs). This integration increases the importance of awareness and agreement on how to diagnose effects of land use in ESMs to avoid additional model spread and thus unnecessary uncertainties in carbon budget estimates. Process understanding of management effects, their model implementation, as well as data availability on management type and extent pose challenges. In this respect, a significant step forward has been done in the framework of the current IPCC's CMIP5 simulations (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5): The climate simulations were driven with the same harmonized land use dataset that, different from most datasets commonly used before, included information on two important types of management: wood harvest and shifting cultivation. However, these new aspects were employed by only part of the CMIP5 models, while most models continued to use the associated land cover maps. Here, we explore the consequences for the carbon cycle of including subgrid-scale land transformations ("gross transitions"), such as shifting cultivation, as example of the current state of implementation of land management in ESMs. Accounting for gross transitions is expected to increase land use emissions because it represents simultaneous clearing and regrowth of natural vegetation in different parts of the grid cell, reducing standing carbon stocks. This process cannot be captured by prescribing land cover maps ("net transitions"). Using the MPI-ESM we find that ignoring gross transitions underestimates emissions substantially, for historical times by about 40%. Implementation of land management such as gross transitions is a step forward in terms of comprehensiveness of simulated processes. However, it has increased model spread in carbon fluxes, because land management processes have been considered by only a subset of recent ESMs contributing to major projects such as IPCC or the Global Carbon Project. This model spread still causes the net land use flux to be the most uncertain component in the global carbon budget. Other causes have previously been identified as differences in land use datasets, differing types of vegetation model, accounting of nutrient limitation, the inclusion of land use feedbacks (increase in atmospheric CO2 due to land use emissions causing terrestrial carbon uptake), and a confusion of whether the net land use flux in ESMs should be reported as instantaneous emissions, or also account for delayed carbon responses and regrowth. These differences explain a factor 2-6 difference between model estimates and are expected to be further affected by interactions with land management. This highlights the importance of an accurate protocol for future model intercomparisons of carbon fluxes from land cover change and land management to ensure comparison of the same processes and fluxes.

Constraints on High Northern Photosynthesis Increase Using Earth System Models and a Set of Independent Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkler, A. J.; Brovkin, V.; Myneni, R.; Alexandrov, G.

2017-12-01

Plant growth in the northern high latitudes benefits from increasing temperature (radiative effect) and CO2 fertilization as a consequence of rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. This enhanced gross primary production (GPP) is evident in large scale increase in summer time greening over the 36-year record of satellite observations. In this time period also various global ecosystem models simulate a greening trend in terms of increasing leaf area index (LAI). We also found a persistent greening trend analyzing historical simulations of Earth system models (ESM) participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). However, these models span a large range in strength of the LAI trend, expressed as sensitivity to both key environmental factors, temperature and CO2 concentration. There is also a wide spread in magnitude of the associated increase of terrestrial GPP among the ESMs, which contributes to pronounced uncertainties in projections of future climate change. Here we demonstrate that there is a linear relationship across the CMIP5 model ensemble between projected GPP changes and historical LAI sensitivity, which allows using the observed LAI sensitivity as an "emerging constraint" on GPP estimation at future CO2 concentration. This constrained estimate of future GPP is substantially higher than the traditional multi-model mean suggesting that the majority of current ESMs may be significantly underestimating carbon fixation by vegetation in NHL. We provide three independent lines of evidence in analyzing observed and simulated CO2 amplitude as well as atmospheric CO2 inversion products to arrive at the same conclusion.

Process-level improvements in CMIP5 models and their impact on tropical variability, the Southern Ocean, and monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauer, Axel; Jones, Colin; Eyring, Veronika; Evaldsson, Martin; Hagemann, Stefan; Mäkelä, Jarmo; Martin, Gill; Roehrig, Romain; Wang, Shiyu

2018-01-01

The performance of updated versions of the four earth system models (ESMs) CNRM, EC-Earth, HadGEM, and MPI-ESM is assessed in comparison to their predecessor versions used in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is applied to evaluate selected climate phenomena in the models against observations. This is the first systematic application of the ESMValTool to assess and document the progress made during an extensive model development and improvement project. This study focuses on the South Asian monsoon (SAM) and the West African monsoon (WAM), the coupled equatorial climate, and Southern Ocean clouds and radiation, which are known to exhibit systematic biases in present-day ESMs. The analysis shows that the tropical precipitation in three out of four models is clearly improved. Two of three updated coupled models show an improved representation of tropical sea surface temperatures with one coupled model not exhibiting a double Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Simulated cloud amounts and cloud-radiation interactions are improved over the Southern Ocean. Improvements are also seen in the simulation of the SAM and WAM, although systematic biases remain in regional details and the timing of monsoon rainfall. Analysis of simulations with EC-Earth at different horizontal resolutions from T159 up to T1279 shows that the synoptic-scale variability in precipitation over the SAM and WAM regions improves with higher model resolution. The results suggest that the reasonably good agreement of modeled and observed mean WAM and SAM rainfall in lower-resolution models may be a result of unrealistic intensity distributions.

Mathematics Student Teachers' Modelling Approaches While Solving the Designed Esme Rug Problem

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hidiroglu, Çaglar Naci; Dede, Ayse Tekin; Ünver, Semiha Kula; Güzel, Esra Bukova

2017-01-01

The purpose of the study is to analyze the mathematics student teachers' solutions on the Esme Rug Problem through 7-stage mathematical modelling process. This problem was designed by the researchers by considering the modelling problems' main properties. The study was conducted with twenty one secondary mathematics student teachers. The data were…

A novel approach to imaging extinct seafloor massive sulphides (eSMS) by using ocean bottom seismometer data from the Blue Mining project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gil, A.; Chidlow, K. L.; Vardy, M. E.; Bialas, J.; Schroeder, H.; Stobbs, I. J.; Gehrmann, R. A. S.; North, L. J.; Minshull, T. A.; Petersen, S.; Murton, B. J.

2017-12-01

Seafloor massive sulphide (SMS) deposits have generated great interest regarding their formation and composition, since their discovery in 1977. SMS deposits form through hydrothermal circulation and are therefore commonly found near hydrothermal vent sites. The high base (Cu, Zn) and precious metal (Au, Ag) content has interested mining companies, due to their potentially high economic value. Currently, the possibility of mining extinct seafloor massive sulphides (eSMS) deposits has opened a debate about their environmentally and economically sustainable exploitation. A major goal is the rapid exploration and assessment of deposit structure and volume. This is challenging due to their small dimensions (100s m diameter) and typically great water depths (> 3000 mbsl). Here we present a novel approach combining seismic reflection/refraction forward modelling to data acquired from the TAG hydrothermal field (26ºN, Mid-Atlantic Ridge, 3500mbsl) to image deep-water eSMS deposits. In May 2016, the RV METEOR shot 30, short (<10km) MSC profiles across the TAG area. The data were recorded on a dense cluster (<75 m apart) of ocean bottom seismometers (OBS) and were able to image the subsurface of several 300m diameter eSMS deposits. The results show that the eSMS deposits present high velocities (5.4-6.6 km/s) to depths 200m below the seafloor where they are hosted in a 500m thick low-velocity (3.0-3.7 km/s) layer of altered basalt. In contrast to active hydrothermal systems, we see no evidence in the eSMS of a low-velocity anhydrite layer. The velocity-depth models obtained from this innovative method have been combined with other methods to study these eSMS deposits, such as electromagnetics, rocks physics and drilling technics, and the results are shown to concur, yielding information about deposit structure at depth. For example, the high-velocity layer extends deeper than the conductive layer, indicating a deep stock work of low-connectivity sulphides beneath a main ore body of more massive sulphide. These geophysical methods allow a better constraint on the volume of sulphide at typical SMS with implications for the metal budget within oceanic crust. This work was funded by the European Union's `Blue Mining' project, n˚ 604500.

Comparison of surface freshwater fluxes from different climate forecasts produced through different ensemble generation schemes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romanova, Vanya; Hense, Andreas; Wahl, Sabrina; Brune, Sebastian; Baehr, Johanna

2016-04-01

The decadal variability and its predictability of the surface net freshwater fluxes is compared in a set of retrospective predictions, all using the same model setup, and only differing in the implemented ocean initialisation method and ensemble generation method. The basic aim is to deduce the differences between the initialization/ensemble generation methods in view of the uncertainty of the verifying observational data sets. The analysis will give an approximation of the uncertainties of the net freshwater fluxes, which up to now appear to be one of the most uncertain products in observational data and model outputs. All ensemble generation methods are implemented into the MPI-ESM earth system model in the framework of the ongoing MiKlip project (www.fona-miklip.de). Hindcast experiments are initialised annually between 2000-2004, and from each start year 10 ensemble members are initialized for 5 years each. Four different ensemble generation methods are compared: (i) a method based on the Anomaly Transform method (Romanova and Hense, 2015) in which the initial oceanic perturbations represent orthogonal and balanced anomaly structures in space and time and between the variables taken from a control run, (ii) one-day-lagged ocean states from the MPI-ESM-LR baseline system (iii) one-day-lagged of ocean and atmospheric states with preceding full-field nudging to re-analysis in both the atmospheric and the oceanic component of the system - the baseline one MPI-ESM-LR system, (iv) an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) implemented into oceanic part of MPI-ESM (Brune et al. 2015), assimilating monthly subsurface oceanic temperature and salinity (EN3) using the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF). The hindcasts are evaluated probabilistically using fresh water flux data sets from four different reanalysis data sets: MERRA, NCEP-R1, GFDL ocean reanalysis and GECCO2. The assessments show no clear differences in the evaluations scores on regional scales. However, on the global scale the physically motivated methods (i) and (iv) provide probabilistic hindcasts with a consistently higher reliability than the lagged initialization methods (ii)/(iii) despite the large uncertainties in the verifying observations and in the simulations.

The seasonal cycle of pCO2 and CO2 fluxes in the Southern Ocean: diagnosing anomalies in CMIP5 Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Precious Mongwe, N.; Vichi, Marcello; Monteiro, Pedro M. S.

2018-05-01

The Southern Ocean forms an important component of the Earth system as a major sink of CO2 and heat. Recent studies based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) Earth system models (ESMs) show that CMIP5 models disagree on the phasing of the seasonal cycle of the CO2 flux (FCO2) and compare poorly with available observation products for the Southern Ocean. Because the seasonal cycle is the dominant mode of CO2 variability in the Southern Ocean, its simulation is a rigorous test for models and their long-term projections. Here we examine the competing roles of temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) as drivers of the seasonal cycle of pCO2 in the Southern Ocean to explain the mechanistic basis for the seasonal biases in CMIP5 models. We find that despite significant differences in the spatial characteristics of the mean annual fluxes, the intra-model homogeneity in the seasonal cycle of FCO2 is greater than observational products. FCO2 biases in CMIP5 models can be grouped into two main categories, i.e., group-SST and group-DIC. Group-SST models show an exaggeration of the seasonal rates of change of sea surface temperature (SST) in autumn and spring during the cooling and warming peaks. These higher-than-observed rates of change of SST tip the control of the seasonal cycle of pCO2 and FCO2 towards SST and result in a divergence between the observed and modeled seasonal cycles, particularly in the Sub-Antarctic Zone. While almost all analyzed models (9 out of 10) show these SST-driven biases, 3 out of 10 (namely NorESM1-ME, HadGEM-ES and MPI-ESM, collectively the group-DIC models) compensate for the solubility bias because of their overly exaggerated primary production, such that biologically driven DIC changes mainly regulate the seasonal cycle of FCO2.

Dynamics of global vegetation biomass simulated by the integrated Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Thornton, P. E.; Piao, S.; Yang, X.; Truesdale, J. E.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Chini, L. P.; Thomson, A. M.; Hurtt, G. C.; Collins, W.; Edmonds, J.

2014-12-01

The global vegetation biomass stores huge amounts of carbon and is thus important to the global carbon budget (Pan et al., 2010). For the past few decades, different observation-based estimates and modeling of biomass in the above- and below-ground vegetation compartments have been comprehensively conducted (Saatchi et al., 2011; Baccini et al., 2012). However, uncertainties still exist, in particular for the simulation of biomass magnitude, tendency, and the response of biomass to climatic conditions and natural and human disturbances. The recently successful coupling of the integrated Earth System Model (iESM) (Di Vittorio et al., 2014; Bond-Lamberty et al., 2014), which links the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), Global Land-use Model (GLM), and Community Earth System Model (CESM), offers a great opportunity to understand the biomass-related dynamics in a fully-coupled natural and human modeling system. In this study, we focus on the systematic analysis and evaluation of the iESM simulated historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) biomass changes and the response of the biomass dynamics to various impact factors, in particular the human-induced Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC). By analyzing the iESM simulations with and without the interactive LULCC feedbacks, we further study how and where the climate feedbacks affect socioeconomic decisions and LULCC, such as to alter vegetation carbon storage. References Pan Y et. al: A large and persistent carbon sink in the World's forests. Science 2011, 333:988-993. Saatchi SS et al: Benchmark map of forest carbon stocks in tropical regions across three continents. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2011, 108:9899-9904. Baccini A et al: Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps. Nature Clim Change 2012, 2:182-185. Di Vittorio AV et al: From land use to land cover: restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment-earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations. Biogeosciences Discuss 2014, 11:7151-7188. Bond-Lamberty, B et al: Coupling earth system and integrated assessment models: The problem of steady state. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss 2014, 7: 1499-1524, doi:10.5194/gmdd-7-1499-2014.

Evaluating Global Land-use Change Scenario: Carbon Emission in RCP Scenarios and its Effects on Climate Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, E.; Kawamiya, M.

2011-12-01

In CMIP5 experiments, new emissions scenarios for GCMs and Earth System Models (ESMs) have been constructed as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by a community effort of Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) groups. In RCP scenarios, regional land-use scenarios have been depicted based on the socio-economic assumption of IAMs, and also downscaled spatially explicit land-use maps from the regional scenarios are prepared. In the land-use harmonization project, integrated gridded land-use transition data for the past and future time period has been developed from the reconstruction based on HYDE 3 agricultural data and FAO wood harvest data, and the future land-use scenarios from IAMs. These gridded land-use dataset are used as a forcing of some ESMs participating to the CMIP5 experiments, to assess the biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects of land-use and land cover change in the climate change simulation. In this study, global net CO2 emissions from land-use change for RCP scenarios are evaluated with an offline terrestrial biogeochemical model, VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulation Tool). Also the emissions are evaluated with coupled ESM, MIROC-ESM following the LUCID-CMIP5 protocol to see the effect of land-use and land cover change on climate response. Using the model output, consistency of the land-use change CO2 emission scenarios provided by RCPs are evaluated in terms of effect of CO2 fertilization, climate change, and land-use transition itself including the effect of biomass crops production with CCS. We find that a land-use scenario with decreased agricultural land-use intensity such as RCP 6.0 shows possibility of further absorption of CO2 through the climate-carbon feedback, and cooling effect through both biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects.

The carbon cycle in the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-ESM1) - Part 1: Model description and pre-industrial simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Law, Rachel M.; Ziehn, Tilo; Matear, Richard J.; Lenton, Andrew; Chamberlain, Matthew A.; Stevens, Lauren E.; Wang, Ying-Ping; Srbinovsky, Jhan; Bi, Daohua; Yan, Hailin; Vohralik, Peter F.

2017-07-01

Earth system models (ESMs) that incorporate carbon-climate feedbacks represent the present state of the art in climate modelling. Here, we describe the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS)-ESM1, which comprises atmosphere (UM7.3), land (CABLE), ocean (MOM4p1), and sea-ice (CICE4.1) components with OASIS-MCT coupling, to which ocean and land carbon modules have been added. The land carbon model (as part of CABLE) can optionally include both nitrogen and phosphorous limitation on the land carbon uptake. The ocean carbon model (WOMBAT, added to MOM) simulates the evolution of phosphate, oxygen, dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity and iron with one class of phytoplankton and zooplankton. We perform multi-centennial pre-industrial simulations with a fixed atmospheric CO2 concentration and different land carbon model configurations (prescribed or prognostic leaf area index). We evaluate the equilibration of the carbon cycle and present the spatial and temporal variability in key carbon exchanges. Simulating leaf area index results in a slight warming of the atmosphere relative to the prescribed leaf area index case. Seasonal and interannual variations in land carbon exchange are sensitive to whether leaf area index is simulated, with interannual variations driven by variability in precipitation and temperature. We find that the response of the ocean carbon cycle shows reasonable agreement with observations. While our model overestimates surface phosphate values, the global primary productivity agrees well with observations. Our analysis highlights some deficiencies inherent in the carbon models and where the carbon simulation is negatively impacted by known biases in the underlying physical model and consequent limits on the applicability of this model version. We conclude the study with a brief discussion of key developments required to further improve the realism of our model simulation.

Variability in Cortical Representations of Speech Sound Perception

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boatman, Dana F.

2007-01-01

Recent brain mapping studies have provided new insights into the cortical systems that mediate human speech perception. Electrocortical stimulation mapping (ESM) is a brain mapping method that is used clinically to localize cortical functions in neurosurgical patients. Recent ESM studies have yielded new insights into the cortical systems that…

Coiling of elastic rods from a geometric perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jawed, Mohammad; Brun, Pierre-Thomas; Reis, Pedro

2015-03-01

We present results from a systematic numerical investigation of the pattern formation of coiling obtained when a slender elastic rod is deployed onto a moving substrate; a system known as the elastic sewing machine (ESM). The Discrete Elastic Rods method is employed to explore the parameter space, construct phase diagrams, identify their phase boundaries and characterize the morphology of the patterns. The nontrivial geometric nonlinearities are described in terms of the gravito-bending length and the deployment height. Our results are interpreted using a reduced geometric model for the evolution of the position of the contact point with the belt and the curvature of the rod in its neighborhood. This geometric model reproduces all of the coiling patterns of the ESM, which allows us to establish a universal link between our elastic problem and the analogous patterns obtained when depositing a viscous thread onto a moving surface; a well-known system referred to as the fluid mechanical sewing machine.

Evolution of Precipitation Extremes in Three Large Ensembles of Climate Simulations - Impact of Spatial and Temporal Resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martel, J. L.; Brissette, F.; Mailhot, A.; Wood, R. R.; Ludwig, R.; Frigon, A.; Leduc, M.; Turcotte, R.

2017-12-01

Recent studies indicate that the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation will increase in future climate due to global warming. In this study, we compare annual maxima precipitation series from three large ensembles of climate simulations at various spatial and temporal resolutions. The first two are at the global scale: the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) 50-member large ensemble (CanESM2-LE) at a 2.8° resolution and the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) 40-member large ensemble (CESM1-LE) at a 1° resolution. The third ensemble is at the regional scale over both Eastern North America and Europe: the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) 50-member large ensemble (CRCM5-LE) at a 0.11° resolution, driven at its boundaries by the CanESM-LE. The CRCM5-LE is a new ensemble issued from the ClimEx project (http://www.climex-project.org), a Québec-Bavaria collaboration. Using these three large ensembles, change in extreme precipitations over the historical (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) periods are investigated. This results in 1 500 (30 years x 50 members for CanESM2-LE and CRCM5-LE) and 1200 (30 years x 40 members for CESM1-LE) simulated years over both the historical and future periods. Using these large datasets, the empirical daily (and sub-daily for CRCM5-LE) extreme precipitation quantiles for large return periods ranging from 2 to 100 years are computed. Results indicate that daily extreme precipitations generally will increase over most land grid points of both domains according to the three large ensembles. Regarding the CRCM5-LE, the increase in sub-daily extreme precipitations will be even more important than the one observed for daily extreme precipitations. Considering that many public infrastructures have lifespans exceeding 75 years, the increase in extremes has important implications on service levels of water infrastructures and public safety.

A mechanistic diagnosis of the simulation of soil CO2 efflux of the ACME Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Wang, G.; Gu, L.; Hanson, P. J.; Mayes, M. A.

2017-12-01

Accurate simulation of the CO2 efflux from soils (i.e., soil respiration) to the atmosphere is critical to project global biogeochemical cycles and the magnitude of climate change in Earth system models (ESMs). Currently, the simulated soil respiration by ESMs still have a large uncertainty. In this study, a mechanistic diagnosis of soil respiration in the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) Land Model (ALM) was conducted using long-term observations at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) forest site in the central U.S. The results showed that the ALM default run significantly underestimated annual soil respiration and gross primary production (GPP), while incorrectly estimating soil water potential. Improved simulations of soil water potential with site-specific data significantly improved the modeled annual soil respiration, primarily because annual GPP was simultaneously improved. Therefore, accurate simulations of soil water potential must be carefully calibrated in ESMs. Despite improved annual soil respiration, the ALM continued to underestimate soil respiration during peak growing seasons, and to overestimate soil respiration during non-peak growing seasons. Simulations involving increased GPP during peak growing seasons increased soil respiration, while neither improved plant phenology nor increased temperature sensitivity affected the simulation of soil respiration during non-peak growing seasons. One potential reason for the overestimation of the soil respiration during non-peak growing seasons may be that the current model structure is substrate-limited, while microbial dormancy under stress may cause the system to become decomposer-limited. Further studies with more microbial data are required to provide adequate representation of soil respiration and to understand the underlying reasons for inaccurate model simulations.

Plume Impingement Analysis for the European Service Module Propulsion System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yim, John Tamin; Sibe, Fabien; Ierardo, Nicola

2014-01-01

Plume impingement analyses were performed for the European Service Module (ESM) propulsion system Orbital Maneuvering System engine (OMS-E), auxiliary engines, and reaction control system (RCS) engines. The heat flux from plume impingement on the solar arrays and other surfaces are evaluated. This information is used to provide inputs for the ESM thermal analyses and help determine the optimal configuration for the RCS engines.

iMarNet: an ocean biogeochemistry model inter-comparison project within a common physical ocean modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwiatkowski, L.; Yool, A.; Allen, J. I.; Anderson, T. R.; Barciela, R.; Buitenhuis, E. T.; Butenschön, M.; Enright, C.; Halloran, P. R.; Le Quéré, C.; de Mora, L.; Racault, M.-F.; Sinha, B.; Totterdell, I. J.; Cox, P. M.

2014-07-01

Ocean biogeochemistry (OBGC) models span a wide range of complexities from highly simplified, nutrient-restoring schemes, through nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) models that crudely represent the marine biota, through to models that represent a broader trophic structure by grouping organisms as plankton functional types (PFT) based on their biogeochemical role (Dynamic Green Ocean Models; DGOM) and ecosystem models which group organisms by ecological function and trait. OBGC models are now integral components of Earth System Models (ESMs), but they compete for computing resources with higher resolution dynamical setups and with other components such as atmospheric chemistry and terrestrial vegetation schemes. As such, the choice of OBGC in ESMs needs to balance model complexity and realism alongside relative computing cost. Here, we present an inter-comparison of six OBGC models that were candidates for implementation within the next UK Earth System Model (UKESM1). The models cover a large range of biological complexity (from 7 to 57 tracers) but all include representations of at least the nitrogen, carbon, alkalinity and oxygen cycles. Each OBGC model was coupled to the Nucleus for the European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean general circulation model (GCM), and results from physically identical hindcast simulations were compared. Model skill was evaluated for biogeochemical metrics of global-scale bulk properties using conventional statistical techniques. The computing cost of each model was also measured in standardised tests run at two resource levels. No model is shown to consistently outperform or underperform all other models across all metrics. Nonetheless, the simpler models that are easier to tune are broadly closer to observations across a number of fields, and thus offer a high-efficiency option for ESMs that prioritise high resolution climate dynamics. However, simpler models provide limited insight into more complex marine biogeochemical processes and ecosystem pathways, and a parallel approach of low resolution climate dynamics and high complexity biogeochemistry is desirable in order to provide additional insights into biogeochemistry-climate interactions.

iMarNet: an ocean biogeochemistry model intercomparison project within a common physical ocean modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwiatkowski, L.; Yool, A.; Allen, J. I.; Anderson, T. R.; Barciela, R.; Buitenhuis, E. T.; Butenschön, M.; Enright, C.; Halloran, P. R.; Le Quéré, C.; de Mora, L.; Racault, M.-F.; Sinha, B.; Totterdell, I. J.; Cox, P. M.

2014-12-01

Ocean biogeochemistry (OBGC) models span a wide variety of complexities, including highly simplified nutrient-restoring schemes, nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) models that crudely represent the marine biota, models that represent a broader trophic structure by grouping organisms as plankton functional types (PFTs) based on their biogeochemical role (dynamic green ocean models) and ecosystem models that group organisms by ecological function and trait. OBGC models are now integral components of Earth system models (ESMs), but they compete for computing resources with higher resolution dynamical setups and with other components such as atmospheric chemistry and terrestrial vegetation schemes. As such, the choice of OBGC in ESMs needs to balance model complexity and realism alongside relative computing cost. Here we present an intercomparison of six OBGC models that were candidates for implementation within the next UK Earth system model (UKESM1). The models cover a large range of biological complexity (from 7 to 57 tracers) but all include representations of at least the nitrogen, carbon, alkalinity and oxygen cycles. Each OBGC model was coupled to the ocean general circulation model Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) and results from physically identical hindcast simulations were compared. Model skill was evaluated for biogeochemical metrics of global-scale bulk properties using conventional statistical techniques. The computing cost of each model was also measured in standardised tests run at two resource levels. No model is shown to consistently outperform all other models across all metrics. Nonetheless, the simpler models are broadly closer to observations across a number of fields and thus offer a high-efficiency option for ESMs that prioritise high-resolution climate dynamics. However, simpler models provide limited insight into more complex marine biogeochemical processes and ecosystem pathways, and a parallel approach of low-resolution climate dynamics and high-complexity biogeochemistry is desirable in order to provide additional insights into biogeochemistry-climate interactions.

Large divergence of satellite and Earth system model estimates of global terrestrial CO2 fertilization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, W. Kolby; Reed, Sasha C.; Cleveland, Cory C.; Ballantyne, Ashley P; Anderegg, William R. L.; Wieder, William R.; Liu, Yi Y; Running, Steven W.

2015-01-01

Atmospheric mass balance analyses suggest that terrestrial carbon (C) storage is increasing, partially abating the atmospheric [CO2] growth rate, although the continued strength of this important ecosystem service remains uncertain. Some evidence suggests that these increases will persist owing to positive responses of vegetation growth (net primary productivity; NPP) to rising atmospheric [CO2] (that is, ‘CO2 fertilization’). Here, we present a new satellite-derived global terrestrial NPP data set, which shows a significant increase in NPP from 1982 to 2011. However, comparison against Earth system model (ESM) NPP estimates reveals a significant divergence, with satellite-derived increases (2.8 ± 1.50%) less than half of ESM-derived increases (7.6  ±  1.67%) over the 30-year period. By isolating the CO2 fertilization effect in each NPP time series and comparing it against a synthesis of available free-air CO2 enrichment data, we provide evidence that much of the discrepancy may be due to an over-sensitivity of ESMs to atmospheric [CO2], potentially reflecting an under-representation of climatic feedbacks and/or a lack of representation of nutrient constraints. Our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects on NPP needs rapid improvement to enable more accurate projections of future C cycle–climate feedbacks; we contend that better integration of modelling, satellite and experimental approaches offers a promising way forward.

The Transformation of Climate Models to Earth System Models and their Role in Policy Development and Decision Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington, W. M.

2012-12-01

We have seen over the last few decades continued improvement in climate models such that they are becoming Earth system models (ESMs). Usually climate models use specified concentrations of greenhouse gases whereas ESMs allow carbon, water, biochemical and other cycles to be fully interactive between various model components. Typically ESMs have atmospheric, ocean, land/vegetation, sea ice, urbanization components and some are starting to include glacier change which can directly affect sea level change. Steve Schneider, for whom this lecture is named after, strongly encouraged the development of such models and he went further to strongly suggest that these tools be developed beyond just the climate science questions. The modeling community needs to be interacting with the social, behavioral, and economic science communities. This would allow for realistic humankind interactions with the Earth system. In 2012, the federal government with advice from the National Academies developed a new strategic plan for the U. S. Global Change Research Program entitled The National Global Change Research Plan 2012-2021. This new plan has added the social, behavioral, and economic sciences to the mix of research expertise. It should be pointed out that the Global Change Research Act of 1990 passed by Congress specified strategic goals: advance science, inform decisions, conduct assessments, and communicate and educate. In order to carry out these goals an implementation plan is being put together by the 13 federal agencies and departments. Throughout Steve's professional life, he knew that to make global change understood required this broad community of sciences to work together to answer the questions that the public and policymakers had about environmental change. This talk will not only be about the historical developments in the field but also about the future research challenges. As part of the talk I will show several unpublished video segments of Steve explaining what mankind should do about climate and global change.

Comparisons with observational and experimental manipulation data imply needed conceptual changes to ESM land models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, W. J.; Zhu, Q.; Tang, J.

2016-12-01

The land models integrated in Earth System Models (ESMs) are critical components necessary to predict soil carbon dynamics and carbon-climate interactions under a changing climate. Yet, these models have been shown to have poor predictive power when compared with observations and ignore many processes known to the observational communities to influence above and belowground carbon dynamics. Here I will report work to tightly couple observations and perturbation experiment results with development of an ESM land model (ALM), focusing on nutrient constraints of the terrestrial C cycle. Using high-frequency flux tower observations and short-term nitrogen and phosphorus perturbation experiments, we show that conceptualizing plant and soil microbe interactions as a multi-substrate, multi-competitor kinetic network allows for accurate prediction of nutrient acquisition. Next, using multiple-year FACE and fertilization response observations at many forest sites, we show that capturing the observed responses requires representation of dynamic allocation to respond to the resulting stresses. Integrating the mechanisms implied by these observations into ALM leads to much lower observational bias and to very different predictions of long-term soil and aboveground C stocks and dynamics, and therefore C-climate feedbacks. I describe how these types of observational constraints are being integrated into the open-source International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) package, and end with the argument that consolidating as many observations of all sorts for easy use by modelers is an important goal to improve C-climate feedback predictions.

How does dynamical downscaling affect model biases and future projections of explosive extratropical cyclones along North America's Atlantic coast?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seiler, C.; Zwiers, F. W.; Hodges, K. I.; Scinocca, J. F.

2018-01-01

Explosive extratropical cyclones (EETCs) are rapidly intensifying low pressure systems that generate severe weather along North America's Atlantic coast. Global climate models (GCMs) tend to simulate too few EETCs, perhaps partly due to their coarse horizontal resolution and poorly resolved moist diabatic processes. This study explores whether dynamical downscaling can reduce EETC frequency biases, and whether this affects future projections of storms along North America's Atlantic coast. A regional climate model (CanRCM4) is forced with the CanESM2 GCM for the periods 1981 to 2000 and 2081 to 2100. EETCs are tracked from relative vorticity using an objective feature tracking algorithm. CanESM2 simulates 38% fewer EETC tracks compared to reanalysis data, which is consistent with a negative Eady growth rate bias (-0.1 day^{-1}). Downscaling CanESM2 with CanRCM4 increases EETC frequency by one third, which reduces the frequency bias to -22%, and increases maximum EETC precipitation by 22%. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing is projected to decrease EETC frequency (-15%, -18%) and Eady growth rate (-0.2 day^{-1}, -0.2 day^{-1}), and increase maximum EETC precipitation (46%, 52%) in CanESM2 and CanRCM4, respectively. The limited effect of dynamical downscaling on EETC frequency projections is consistent with the lack of impact on the maximum Eady growth rate. The coarse spatial resolution of GCMs presents an important limitation for simulating extreme ETCs, but Eady growth rate biases are likely just as relevant. Further bias reductions could be achieved by addressing processes that lead to an underestimation of lower tropospheric meridional temperature gradients.

Evaluation of GCMs in the context of regional predictive climate impact studies.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kokorev, Vasily; Anisimov, Oleg

2016-04-01

Significant improvements in the structure, complexity, and general performance of earth system models (ESMs) have been made in the recent decade. Despite these efforts, the range of uncertainty in predicting regional climate impacts remains large. The problem is two-fold. Firstly, there is an intrinsic conflict between the local and regional scales of climate impacts and adaptation strategies, on one hand, and larger scales, at which ESMs demonstrate better performance, on the other. Secondly, there is a growing understanding that majority of the impacts involve thresholds, and are thus driven by extreme climate events, whereas accent in climate projections is conventionally made on gradual changes in means. In this study we assess the uncertainty in projecting extreme climatic events within a region-specific and process-oriented context by examining the skills and ranking of ESMs. We developed a synthetic regionalization of Northern Eurasia that accounts for the spatial features of modern climatic changes and major environmental and socio-economical impacts. Elements of such fragmentation could be considered as natural focus regions that bridge the gap between the spatial scales adopted in climate-impacts studies and patterns of climate change simulated by ESMs. In each focus region we selected several target meteorological variables that govern the key regional impacts, and examined the ability of the models to replicate their seasonal and annual means and trends by testing them against observations. We performed a similar evaluation with regard to extremes and statistics of the target variables. And lastly, we used the results of these analyses to select sets of models that demonstrate the best performance at selected focus regions with regard to selected sets of target meteorological parameters. Ultimately, we ranked the models according to their skills, identified top-end models that "better than average" reproduce the behavior of climatic parameters, and eliminated the outliers. Since the criteria of selecting the "best" models are somewhat loose, we constructed several regional ensembles consisting of different number of high-ranked models and compared results from these optimized ensembles with observations and with the ensemble of all models. We tested our approach in specific regional application of the terrestrial Russian Arctic, considering permafrost and Artic biomes as key regional climate-dependent systems, and temperature and precipitation characteristics governing their state as target meteorological parameters. Results of this case study are deposited on the web portal www.permafrost.su/gcms

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. We show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks inmore » energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We also find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Furthermore, the feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated here are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.« less

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.; di Vittorio, Alan V.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Chini, Louise; Shi, Xiaoying; Mao, Jiafu; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, Jae; Thomson, Allison; Truesdale, John; Craig, Anthony; Branstetter, Marcia L.; Hurtt, George

2017-07-01

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical data sets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy-economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns and socio-economic development trajectories. Here we show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drive significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land use and carbon cycle projections for the twenty-first century. We find that exposure of human-appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid-range forcing scenario. The feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system--demonstrated here--are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy-economic models to ESMs used to date.

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

DOE PAGES

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.; ...

2017-06-12

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. We show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks inmore » energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We also find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Furthermore, the feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated here are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.« less

The representation of non-equilibrium soil types in earth system models and its impact on carbon cycle projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hugelius, G.; Ahlström, A.; Canadell, J.; Koven, C. D.; Jackson, R. B.; Luo, Y.

2016-12-01

Soils hold the largest reactive pool of carbon (C) on earth. Global soil organic C stocks (0-200 cm depth plus full peatland depth) are estimated to 2200 Pg C (adapted from Hugelius et al., 2014, Köchy et al., 2015 and Batjes, 2016). Soil C stocks in Earth system models (ESMs) can be generated by running the model over a longer time period until soil C pools are in or near steady-state. Inherent in this concept is the idea that soil C stocks are in (quasi)equilibrium as determined by the balance of net ecosystem input to soil organic matter and its turnover. The rate of turnover is sometimes subdivided into several pools and the rates are affected by various environmental factors. Here we break down the empirically based estimates of global soil C pools into equilibrium-type soils which current (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5; CMIP5) generation ESMs are set-up to represent and non-equilibrium type soils which are generally not represented in current ESMs. We define equilibrium soils as those where pedogenesis (and associated soil C formation) is not significantly limited by the environmental factors perennial soil freezing, waterlogging/anoxia or limited unconsolidated soil substrate. This is essentially all permafrost-free mineral soils that are not in a wetland or alpine setting. On the other hand, non-equlibrium soils are defined as permafrost soils, peatlands and alpine soils with a limited fine-soil matrix. Based on geospatial analyses of state-of-the-art datasets on soil C stocks, we estimate that the global soil C pool is divided roughly equally between equilibrium and non-equlibrium type soils. We discuss the ways in which this result affects C cycling in ESMs and projections of soil C sensitivity under a changing climate. ReferencesBatjes N.H. (2016) Geoderma, 269, 61-68, doi: 10.1016/j.geoderma.2016.01.034 Hugelius G. et al. (2014) Biogeosciences, 11, 6573-6593, doi:10.5194/bg-11-6573-2014 Köchy M. et al. (2015) Soil 1, 351-365. DOI: doi:10.5194/soil-1-351-2015

Clarifying Objectives and Results of Equivalent System Mass Analyses for Advanced Life Support

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levri, Julie A.; Drysdale, Alan E.

2003-01-01

This paper discusses some of the analytical decisions that an investigator must make during the course of a life support system trade study. Equivalent System Mass (ESM) is often applied to evaluate trade study options in the Advanced Life Support (ALS) Program. ESM can be used to identify which of several options that meet all requirements are most likely to have lowest cost. It can also be used to identify which of the many interacting parts of a life support system have the greatest impact and sensitivity to assumptions. This paper summarizes recommendations made in the newly developed ALS ESM Guidelines Document and expands on some of the issues relating to trade studies that involve ESM. In particular, the following three points are expounded: 1) The importance of objectives: Analysis objectives drive the approach to any trade study, including identification of assumptions, selection of characteristics to compare in the analysis, and the most appropriate techniques for reflecting those characteristics. 2) The importance of results inferprefafion: The accuracy desired in the results depends upon the analysis objectives, whereas the realized accuracy is determined by the data quality and degree of detail in analysis methods. 3) The importance of analysis documentation: Documentation of assumptions and data modifications is critical for effective peer evaluation of any trade study. ESM results are analysis-specific and should always be reported in context, rather than as solitary values. For this reason, results reporting should be done with adequate rigor to allow for verification by other researchers.

Emergent constraints on climate-carbon cycle feedbacks in the CMIP5 Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wenzel, Sabrina; Cox, Peter M.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre

2014-05-01

An emergent linear relationship between the long-term sensitivity of tropical land carbon storage to climate warming (γLT) and the short-term sensitivity of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) to interannual temperature variability (γIAV) has previously been identified by Cox et al. (2013) across an ensemble of Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP). Here we examine whether such a constraint also holds for a new set of eight ESMs participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. A wide spread in tropical land carbon storage is found for the quadrupling of atmospheric CO2, which is of the order of 252 ± 112 GtC when carbon-climate feedbacks are enabled. Correspondingly, the spread in γLT is wide (-49 ± 40 GtC/K) and thus remains one of the key uncertainties in climate projections. A tight correlation is found between the long-term sensitivity of tropical land carbon and the short-term sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 (γLT versus γIAV), which enables the projections to be constrained with observations. The observed short-term sensitivity of CO2 (-4.4 ± 0.9 GtC/yr/K) sharpens the range of γLT to -44 ± 14 GtC/K, which overlaps with the probability density function derived from the C4MIP models (-53 ± 17 GtC/K) by Cox et al. (2013), even though the lines relating γLT and γIAV differ in the two cases. Emergent constraints of this type provide a means to focus ESM evaluation against observations on the metrics most relevant to projections of future climate change.

Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models - an overview of techniques and approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller-Hansen, Finn; Schlüter, Maja; Mäs, Michael; Donges, Jonathan F.; Kolb, Jakob J.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Heitzig, Jobst

2017-11-01

Today, humans have a critical impact on the Earth system and vice versa, which can generate complex feedback processes between social and ecological dynamics. Integrating human behavior into formal Earth system models (ESMs), however, requires crucial modeling assumptions about actors and their goals, behavioral options, and decision rules, as well as modeling decisions regarding human social interactions and the aggregation of individuals' behavior. Here, we review existing modeling approaches and techniques from various disciplines and schools of thought dealing with human behavior at different levels of decision making. We demonstrate modelers' often vast degrees of freedom but also seek to make modelers aware of the often crucial consequences of seemingly innocent modeling assumptions. After discussing which socioeconomic units are potentially important for ESMs, we compare models of individual decision making that correspond to alternative behavioral theories and that make diverse modeling assumptions about individuals' preferences, beliefs, decision rules, and foresight. We review approaches to model social interaction, covering game theoretic frameworks, models of social influence, and network models. Finally, we discuss approaches to studying how the behavior of individuals, groups, and organizations can aggregate to complex collective phenomena, discussing agent-based, statistical, and representative-agent modeling and economic macro-dynamics. We illustrate the main ingredients of modeling techniques with examples from land-use dynamics as one of the main drivers of environmental change bridging local to global scales.

Does Climate Care about Land?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, E.; Lague, M. M.; Swann, A. L. S.

2017-12-01

Everyone knows that plants are influenced by the climate they live in. However, the reverse is also true: plants can influence climate both locally and globally by changing atmospheric circulation. Uncovering the role that plants play in climate has been challenging—the interactions are complex and vary greatly in different regions of the world. We lack a systematic understanding of the role of vegetation in the climate system. Using a new simplified land model coupled to a modern Earth System Model (ESM), we are able to separate the individual influences of the land system in the context of modern ESMs. For example, with our model we are able to test how the capacity of the land to hold water influences the atmosphere. If less water is able to evaporate, this could lead to substantial warming, and could even influence clouds. Understanding specifically where and how the atmosphere is influenced by the land surface improves our understanding of how future changes in the land surface will in turn feedback on climate, and how that will impact people. This improved understanding also advances our knowledge of the key role biology plays in driving the global climate system.

CO2, the greenhouse effect and global warming: from the pioneering work of Arrhenius and Callendar to today's Earth System Models.

PubMed

Anderson, Thomas R; Hawkins, Ed; Jones, Philip D

2016-09-01

Climate warming during the course of the twenty-first century is projected to be between 1.0 and 3.7°C depending on future greenhouse gas emissions, based on the ensemble-mean results of state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs). Just how reliable are these projections, given the complexity of the climate system? The early history of climate research provides insight into the understanding and science needed to answer this question. We examine the mathematical quantifications of planetary energy budget developed by Svante Arrhenius (1859-1927) and Guy Stewart Callendar (1898-1964) and construct an empirical approximation of the latter, which we show to be successful at retrospectively predicting global warming over the course of the twentieth century. This approximation is then used to calculate warming in response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases during the twenty-first century, projecting a temperature increase at the lower bound of results generated by an ensemble of ESMs (as presented in the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). This result can be interpreted as follows. The climate system is conceptually complex but has at its heart the physical laws of radiative transfer. This basic, or "core" physics is relatively straightforward to compute mathematically, as exemplified by Callendar's calculations, leading to quantitatively robust projections of baseline warming. The ESMs include not only the physical core but also climate feedbacks that introduce uncertainty into the projections in terms of magnitude, but not sign: positive (amplification of warming). As such, the projections of end-of-century global warming by ESMs are fundamentally trustworthy: quantitatively robust baseline warming based on the well-understood physics of radiative transfer, with extra warming due to climate feedbacks. These projections thus provide a compelling case that global climate will continue to undergo significant warming in response to ongoing emissions of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

What are the effects of Agro-Ecological Zones and land use region boundaries on land resource projection using the Global Change Assessment Model?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Kyle, Page; Collins, William D.

Understanding the potential impacts of climate change is complicated by mismatched spatial representations between gridded Earth System Models (ESMs) and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), whose regions are typically larger and defined by geopolitical and biophysical criteria. In this study we address uncertainty stemming from the construction of land use regions in an IAM, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), whose regions are currently based on historical climatic conditions (1961-1990). We re-define GCAM’s regions according to projected climatic conditions (2070-2099), and investigate how this changes model outcomes for land use, agriculture, and forestry. By 2100, we find potentially large differences inmore » projected global and regional area of biomass energy crops, fodder crops, harvested forest, and intensive pasture. These land area differences correspond with changes in agricultural commodity prices and production. These results have broader implications for understanding policy scenarios and potential impacts, and for evaluating and comparing IAM and ESM simulations.« less

Vegetation Demographics in Earth System Models: a review of progress and priorities

DOE PAGES

Fisher, Rosie A.; Koven, Charles D.; Anderegg, William R. L.; ...

2017-09-18

Numerous current efforts seek to improve the representation of ecosystem ecology and vegetation demographic processes within Earth System Models (ESMs). Furthermore, these developments are widely viewed as an important step in developing greater realism in predictions of future ecosystem states and fluxes. Increased realism, however, leads to increased model complexity, with new features raising a suite of ecological questions that require empirical constraints. We review the developments that permit the representation of plant demographics in ESMs, and identify issues raised by these developments that highlight important gaps in ecological understanding. These issues inevitably translate into uncertainty in model projections butmore » also allow models to be applied to new processes and questions concerning the dynamics of real-world ecosystems. We also argue that stronger and more innovative connections to data, across the range of scales considered, are required to address these gaps in understanding. The development of first-generation land surface models as a unifying framework for ecophysiological understanding stimulated much research into plant physiological traits and gas exchange. Constraining predictions at ecologically relevant spatial and temporal scales will require a similar investment of effort and intensified inter-disciplinary communication.« less

Vegetation Demographics in Earth System Models: a review of progress and priorities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fisher, Rosie A.; Koven, Charles D.; Anderegg, William R. L.

Numerous current efforts seek to improve the representation of ecosystem ecology and vegetation demographic processes within Earth System Models (ESMs). Furthermore, these developments are widely viewed as an important step in developing greater realism in predictions of future ecosystem states and fluxes. Increased realism, however, leads to increased model complexity, with new features raising a suite of ecological questions that require empirical constraints. We review the developments that permit the representation of plant demographics in ESMs, and identify issues raised by these developments that highlight important gaps in ecological understanding. These issues inevitably translate into uncertainty in model projections butmore » also allow models to be applied to new processes and questions concerning the dynamics of real-world ecosystems. We also argue that stronger and more innovative connections to data, across the range of scales considered, are required to address these gaps in understanding. The development of first-generation land surface models as a unifying framework for ecophysiological understanding stimulated much research into plant physiological traits and gas exchange. Constraining predictions at ecologically relevant spatial and temporal scales will require a similar investment of effort and intensified inter-disciplinary communication.« less

Compiled records of carbon isotopes in atmospheric CO2 for historical simulations in CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graven, Heather; Allison, Colin E.; Etheridge, David M.; Hammer, Samuel; Keeling, Ralph F.; Levin, Ingeborg; Meijer, Harro A. J.; Rubino, Mauro; Tans, Pieter P.; Trudinger, Cathy M.; Vaughn, Bruce H.; White, James W. C.

2017-12-01

The isotopic composition of carbon (Δ14C and δ13C) in atmospheric CO2 and in oceanic and terrestrial carbon reservoirs is influenced by anthropogenic emissions and by natural carbon exchanges, which can respond to and drive changes in climate. Simulations of 14C and 13C in the ocean and terrestrial components of Earth system models (ESMs) present opportunities for model evaluation and for investigation of carbon cycling, including anthropogenic CO2 emissions and uptake. The use of carbon isotopes in novel evaluation of the ESMs' component ocean and terrestrial biosphere models and in new analyses of historical changes may improve predictions of future changes in the carbon cycle and climate system. We compile existing data to produce records of Δ14C and δ13C in atmospheric CO2 for the historical period 1850-2015. The primary motivation for this compilation is to provide the atmospheric boundary condition for historical simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) for models simulating carbon isotopes in the ocean or terrestrial biosphere. The data may also be useful for other carbon cycle modelling activities.

(A)biotic processes control soil carbon dynamics: quantitative assessment of model complexity, stability and response to perturbations for improving ESMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgiou, K.; Abramoff, R. Z.; Harte, J.; Riley, W. J.; Torn, M. S.

2016-12-01

As global temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations continue to increase, soil microbial activity and decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) are expected to follow suit, potentially limiting soil carbon storage. Traditional global- and ecosystem-scale models simulate SOM decomposition using linear kinetics, which are inherently unable to reproduce carbon-concentration feedbacks, such as priming of native SOM at elevated CO2 concentrations. Recent studies using nonlinear microbial models of SOM decomposition seek to capture these interactions, and several groups are currently integrating these microbial models into Earth System Models (ESMs). However, despite their widespread ability to exhibit nonlinear responses, these models vary tremendously in complexity and, consequently, dynamics. In this study, we explore, both analytically and numerically, the emergent oscillatory behavior and insensitivity of SOM stocks to carbon inputs that have been deemed `unrealistic' in recent microbial models. We discuss the sources of instability in four models of varying complexity, by sequentially reducing complexity of a detailed model that includes microbial physiology, a mineral sorption isotherm, and enzyme dynamics. We also present an alternative representation of microbial turnover that limits population sizes and, thus, reduces oscillations. We compare these models to several long-term carbon input manipulations, including the Detritus Input and Removal Treatment (DIRT) experiments, to show that there are clear metrics that can be used to distinguish and validate the inherent dynamics of each model structure. We find that traditional linear and nonlinear models cannot readily capture the range of long-term responses observed across the DIRT experiments as a direct consequence of their model structures, and that modifying microbial turnover results in more realistic predictions. Finally, we discuss our findings in the context of improving microbial model behavior for inclusion in ESMs.

Towards a Better Understanding of Water Stores and Fluxes: Model Observation Synthesis in a Snowmelt Dominated Research Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryken, A.; Gochis, D.; Carroll, R. W. H.; Bearup, L. A.; Williams, K. H.; Maxwell, R. M.

2017-12-01

The hydrology of high-elevation, mountainous regions is poorly represented in Earth Systems Models (ESMs). In addition to regulating downstream water delivery, these ecosystems play an important role in the storage and land-atmosphere exchange of carbon and water. Water balances are sensitive to the amount of water stored in the snowpack (SWE) and the amount of water leaving the system in the form of evapotranspiration—two pieces of the hydrologic cycle that are difficult to observe and model in heterogeneous mountainous regions due to spatially variant weather patterns. In an effort to resolve this hydrologic gap in ESMs, this study seeks to better understand the interactions between groundwater, carbon flux, and the lower atmosphere in these high-altitude environments through integration of field observations and model simulations. We compare model simulations to field observations to elucidate process performance combined with a sensitivity analysis to better understand parameter uncertainty. Observations from a meteorological station in the East River Basin are used to force an integrated single-column hydrologic model, ParFlow-CLM. This met station is co-located with an eddy covariance tower, which, along with snow surveys, is used to better constrain the water, carbon, and energy fluxes in the coupled land-atmosphere model to increase our understanding of high-altitude headwaters. Preliminary results suggest the model compares well to the eddy covariance tower and field observations, shown through both correct magnitude and timing of peak SWE along with similar magnitudes and diurnal patterns of heat and water fluxes. Initial sensitivity analysis results show that an increase in temperature leads to a decrease in peak SWE as well as an increase in latent heat revealing a sensitivity of the model to air temperature. Further sensitivity analysis will help us understand more parameter uncertainty. Through obtaining more accurate and higher resolution meteorological data and applying it to a coupled hydrologic model, this study can lead to better representation of mountainous environments in all ESMs.

Implementation of the Orbital Maneuvering Systems Engine and Thrust Vector Control for the European Service Module

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Millard, Jon

2014-01-01

The European Space Agency (ESA) has entered into a partnership with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to develop and provide the Service Module (SM) for the Orion Multipurpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Program. The European Service Module (ESM) will provide main engine thrust by utilizing the Space Shuttle Program Orbital Maneuvering System Engine (OMS-E). Thrust Vector Control (TVC) of the OMS-E will be provided by the Orbital Maneuvering System (OMS) TVC, also used during the Space Shuttle Program. NASA will be providing the OMS-E and OMS TVC to ESA as Government Furnished Equipment (GFE) to integrate into the ESM. This presentation will describe the OMS-E and OMS TVC and discuss the implementation of the hardware for the ESM.

Redefining plant functional types for forests based on plant traits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, L.; Xu, C.; Christoffersen, B. O.; McDowell, N. G.; Zhou, H.

2016-12-01

Our ability to predict forest mortality is limited by the simple plant functional types (PFTs) in current generations of Earth System models (ESMs). For example, forests were formerly separated into PFTs only based on leaf form and phenology across different regions (arctic, temperate, and tropic areas) in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). This definition of PFTs ignored the large variation in vulnerability of species to drought and shade tolerance within each PFT. We redefined the PFTs for global forests based on plant traits including phenology, wood density, leaf mass per area, xylem-specific conductivity, and xylem pressure at 50% loss of conductivity. Species with similar survival strategies were grouped into the same PFT. New PFTs highlighted variation in vulnerability and physiological adaptation to drought and shade. New PFTs were better clustered than old ones in the two-dimensional plane of the first two principle components in a principle component analysis. We expect that the new PFTs will strengthen ESMs' ability on predicting drought-induced mortality in the future.

The Uptake of Heat and Carbon by the Southern Ocean in the CMIP5 Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, J. L.; Stouffer, R. J.; Dunne, J. P.; John, J. G.

2011-12-01

The Southern Ocean surrounding the Antarctic continent accounts for a disproportionate share of the heat and carbon dioxide that is removed from contact with the atmosphere into the ocean. The vigorous air-sea exchange driven by the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies, combined with the dearth of observations, makes the Southern Ocean a major source of uncertainty in projecting the rate of warming of our atmosphere, especially considering that the vertical mixing of the ocean and the corollary air-sea fluxes may be vulnerable to climate change. We assess the heat and carbon uptake by the Southern Ocean in future simulations by the IPCC-AR5 Earth System Models (ESMs), focusing on the GFDL simulations. Using the 1860 control simulation as our baseline, we explore the differences in heat and carbon uptake between the major "Representative Concentration Pathways" (RCPs) as simulated by the various ESMs in order to quantify the uncertainties in the climate projections related to the Southern Ocean window into the deep ocean reservoir.

Turbulent particle transport in streams: can exponential settling be reconciled with fluid mechanics?

PubMed

McNair, James N; Newbold, J Denis

2012-05-07

Most ecological studies of particle transport in streams that focus on fine particulate organic matter or benthic invertebrates use the Exponential Settling Model (ESM) to characterize the longitudinal pattern of particle settling on the bed. The ESM predicts that if particles are released into a stream, the proportion that have not yet settled will decline exponentially with transport time or distance and will be independent of the release elevation above the bed. To date, no credible basis in fluid mechanics has been established for this model, nor has it been rigorously tested against more-mechanistic alternative models. One alternative is the Local Exchange Model (LEM), which is a stochastic advection-diffusion model that includes both longitudinal and vertical spatial dimensions and is based on classical fluid mechanics. The LEM predicts that particle settling will be non-exponential in the near field but will become exponential in the far field, providing a new theoretical justification for far-field exponential settling that is based on plausible fluid mechanics. We review properties of the ESM and LEM and compare these with available empirical evidence. Most evidence supports the prediction of both models that settling will be exponential in the far field but contradicts the ESM's prediction that a single exponential distribution will hold for all transport times and distances. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global variability in leaf respiration in relation to climate, plant functional types and leaf traits

Treesearch

Owen K. Atkin; Keith J. Bloomfield; Peter B. Reich; Mark G. Tjoelker; Gregory P. Asner; Damien Bonal; Gerhard Bonisch; Matt G. Bradford; Lucas A. Cernusak; Eric G. Cosio; Danielle Creek; Kristine Y. Crous; Tomas F. Domingues; Jeffrey S. Dukes; John J. G. Egerton; John R. Evans; Graham D. Farquhar; Nikolaos M. Fyllas; Paul P. G. Gauthier; Emanuel Gloor; Teresa E. Gimeno; Kevin L. Griffin; Rossella Guerrieri; Mary A. Heskel; Chris Huntingford; Franc_oise Yoko Ishida; Jens Kattge; Hans Lambers; Michael J. Liddell; Jon Lloyd; Christopher H. Lusk; Roberta E. Martin; Ayal P. Maksimov; Trofim C. Maximov; Yadvinder Malhi; Belinda E. Medlyn; Patrick Meir; Lina M. Mercado; Nicholas Mirotchnick; Desmond Ng; Ulo Niinemets; Odhran S. O’Sullivan; Oliver L. Phillips; Lourens Poorter; Pieter Poot; I. Colin Prentice; Norma Salinas; Lucy M. Rowland; Michael G. Ryan; Stephen Sitch; Martijn Slot; Nicholas G. Smith; Matthew H. Turnbull; Mark C. VanderWel; Fernando Valladares; Erik J. Veneklaas; Lasantha K. Weerasinghe; Christian Wirth; Ian J. Wright; Kirk R. Wythers; Jen Xiang; Shuang Xiang; Joana Zaragoza-Castells

2015-01-01

A challenge for the development of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) and associated land surface components of Earth system models (ESMs) is improving representation of carbon (C) exchange between terrestrial plants and the atmosphere, and incorporating biological variation arising from diversity in plant functional types (PFTs) and climate (Sitch et al.,...

Constraining the long-term climate reponse to stratospheric sulfate aerosols injection by the short-term volcanic climate response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plazzotta, M.; Seferian, R.; Douville, H.; Kravitz, B.; Tilmes, S.; Tjiputra, J.

2016-12-01

Rising greenhouse gas emissions are leading to global warming and climate change, which will have multiple impacts on human society. Geoengineering methods like solar radiation management by stratospheric sulfate aerosols injection (SSA-SRM) aim at treating the symptoms of climate change by reducing the global temperature. Since a real-world testing cannot be implemented, Earth System Models (ESMs) are useful tools to assess the climate impacts of such geoengineering methods. However, coordinated simulations performed with the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) have shown that climate cooling in response to a continuous injection of 5Tg of SO2 per year under RCP45 future projection (the so-called G4 experiment) differs substantially between ESMs. Here, we employ a volcano analog approach to constrain the climate response in SSA-SRM geoengineering simulations across an ensemble of 10 ESMs. We identify an emergent relationship between the long-term cooling in responses to the mitigation of the clear-sky surface downwelling shortwave radiation (RSDSCS), and the short-term cooling related to the change in RSDSCS during the major tropical volcanic eruptions observed over the historical period (1850-2005). This relationship explains almost 80% of the multi-model spread. Combined with contemporary observations of the latest volcanic eruptions (satellite observations and model reanalyzes), this relationship provides a tight constraint on the climate impacts of SSA-SRM. We estimate that a continuous injection of SO2 aerosols into the stratosphere will reduce the global average temperature of continental land surface by 0.47 K per W m-2, impacting both hydrological and carbon cycles. Compared with the unconstrained ESMs ensemble (range from 0.32 to 0.92 K per W m-2 ), our estimate represents much higher confidence ways to assess the impacts of SSA-SRM on the climate while ruling the most extreme projections of the unconstrained ensemble extremely unlikely.

Assimilating soil moisture into an Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stacke, Tobias; Hagemann, Stefan

2017-04-01

Several modelling studies reported potential impacts of soil moisture anomalies on regional climate. In particular for short prediction periods, perturbations of the soil moisture state may result in significant alteration of surface temperature in the following season. However, it is not clear yet whether or not soil moisture anomalies affect climate also on larger temporal and spatial scales. In an earlier study, we showed that soil moisture anomalies can persist for several seasons in the deeper soil layers of a land surface model. Additionally, those anomalies can influence root zone moisture, in particular during explicitly dry or wet periods. Thus, one prerequisite for predictability, namely the existence of long term memory, is evident for simulated soil moisture and might be exploited to improve climate predictions. The second prerequisite is the sensitivity of the climate system to soil moisture. In order to investigate this sensitivity for decadal simulations, we implemented a soil moisture assimilation scheme into the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The assimilation scheme is based on a simple nudging algorithm and updates the surface soil moisture state once per day. In our experiments, the MPI-ESM is used which includes model components for the interactive simulation of atmosphere, land and ocean. Artificial assimilation data is created from a control simulation to nudge the MPI-ESM towards predominantly dry and wet states. First analyses are focused on the impact of the assimilation on land surface variables and reveal distinct differences in the long-term mean values between wet and dry state simulations. Precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff are larger in the wet state compared to the dry state, resulting in an increased moisture transport from the land to atmosphere and ocean. Consequently, surface temperatures are lower in the wet state simulations by more than one Kelvin. In terms of spatial pattern, the largest differences between both simulations are seen for continental areas, while regions with a maritime climate are least sensitive to soil moisture assimilation.

An environmental stress model correctly predicts unimodal trends in overall species richness and diversity along intertidal elevation gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zwerschke, Nadescha; Bollen, Merle; Molis, Markus; Scrosati, Ricardo A.

2013-12-01

Environmental stress is a major factor structuring communities. An environmental stress model (ESM) predicts that overall species richness and diversity should follow a unimodal trend along the full stress gradient along which assemblages from a regional biota can occur (not to be confused with the intermediate disturbance hypothesis, which makes predictions only for basal species along an intermediate-to-high stress range). Past studies could only provide partial support for ESM predictions because of the limited stress range surveyed or a low sampling resolution. In this study, we measured overall species richness and diversity (considering all seaweeds and invertebrates) along the intertidal elevation gradient on two wave-sheltered rocky shores from Helgoland Island, on the NE Atlantic coast. In intertidal habitats, tides cause a pronounced gradient of increasing stress from low to high elevations. We surveyed up to nine contiguous elevation zones between the lowest intertidal elevation (low stress) and the high intertidal boundary (high stress). Nonlinear regression analyses revealed that overall species richness and diversity followed unimodal trends across elevations on the two studied shores. Therefore, our study suggests that the ESM might constitute a useful tool to predict local richness and diversity as a function of environmental stress. Performing tests on other systems (marine as well as terrestrial) should help to refine the model.

Terrestrial and marine perspectives on modeling organic matter degradation pathways.

PubMed

Burd, Adrian B; Frey, Serita; Cabre, Anna; Ito, Takamitsu; Levine, Naomi M; Lønborg, Christian; Long, Matthew; Mauritz, Marguerite; Thomas, R Quinn; Stephens, Brandon M; Vanwalleghem, Tom; Zeng, Ning

2016-01-01

Organic matter (OM) plays a major role in both terrestrial and oceanic biogeochemical cycles. The amount of carbon stored in these systems is far greater than that of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) in the atmosphere, and annual fluxes of CO2 from these pools to the atmosphere exceed those from fossil fuel combustion. Understanding the processes that determine the fate of detrital material is important for predicting the effects that climate change will have on feedbacks to the global carbon cycle. However, Earth System Models (ESMs) typically utilize very simple formulations of processes affecting the mineralization and storage of detrital OM. Recent changes in our view of the nature of this material and the factors controlling its transformation have yet to find their way into models. In this review, we highlight the current understanding of the role and cycling of detrital OM in terrestrial and marine systems and examine how this pool of material is represented in ESMs. We include a discussion of the different mineralization pathways available as organic matter moves from soils, through inland waters to coastal systems and ultimately into open ocean environments. We argue that there is strong commonality between aspects of OM transformation in both terrestrial and marine systems and that our respective scientific communities would benefit from closer collaboration. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baehr, J.; Fröhlich, K.; Botzet, M.; Domeisen, D. I. V.; Kornblueh, L.; Notz, D.; Piontek, R.; Pohlmann, H.; Tietsche, S.; Müller, W. A.

2015-05-01

A seasonal forecast system is presented, based on the global coupled climate model MPI-ESM as used for CMIP5 simulations. We describe the initialisation of the system and analyse its predictive skill for surface temperature. The presented system is initialised in the atmospheric, oceanic, and sea ice component of the model from reanalysis/observations with full field nudging in all three components. For the initialisation of the ensemble, bred vectors with a vertically varying norm are implemented in the ocean component to generate initial perturbations. In a set of ensemble hindcast simulations, starting each May and November between 1982 and 2010, we analyse the predictive skill. Bias-corrected ensemble forecasts for each start date reproduce the observed surface temperature anomalies at 2-4 months lead time, particularly in the tropics. Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies show a small root-mean-square error and predictive skill up to 6 months. Away from the tropics, predictive skill is mostly limited to the ocean, and to regions which are strongly influenced by ENSO teleconnections. In summary, the presented seasonal prediction system based on a coupled climate model shows predictive skill for surface temperature at seasonal time scales comparable to other seasonal prediction systems using different underlying models and initialisation strategies. As the same model underlying our seasonal prediction system—with a different initialisation—is presently also used for decadal predictions, this is an important step towards seamless seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions.

Discrete- vs. Continuous-Time Modeling of Unequally Spaced Experience Sampling Method Data.

PubMed

de Haan-Rietdijk, Silvia; Voelkle, Manuel C; Keijsers, Loes; Hamaker, Ellen L

2017-01-01

The Experience Sampling Method is a common approach in psychological research for collecting intensive longitudinal data with high ecological validity. One characteristic of ESM data is that it is often unequally spaced, because the measurement intervals within a day are deliberately varied, and measurement continues over several days. This poses a problem for discrete-time (DT) modeling approaches, which are based on the assumption that all measurements are equally spaced. Nevertheless, DT approaches such as (vector) autoregressive modeling are often used to analyze ESM data, for instance in the context of affective dynamics research. There are equivalent continuous-time (CT) models, but they are more difficult to implement. In this paper we take a pragmatic approach and evaluate the practical relevance of the violated model assumption in DT AR(1) and VAR(1) models, for the N = 1 case. We use simulated data under an ESM measurement design to investigate the bias in the parameters of interest under four different model implementations, ranging from the true CT model that accounts for all the exact measurement times, to the crudest possible DT model implementation, where even the nighttime is treated as a regular interval. An analysis of empirical affect data illustrates how the differences between DT and CT modeling can play out in practice. We find that the size and the direction of the bias in DT (V)AR models for unequally spaced ESM data depend quite strongly on the true parameter in addition to data characteristics. Our recommendation is to use CT modeling whenever possible, especially now that new software implementations have become available.

Discrete- vs. Continuous-Time Modeling of Unequally Spaced Experience Sampling Method Data

PubMed Central

de Haan-Rietdijk, Silvia; Voelkle, Manuel C.; Keijsers, Loes; Hamaker, Ellen L.

2017-01-01

The Experience Sampling Method is a common approach in psychological research for collecting intensive longitudinal data with high ecological validity. One characteristic of ESM data is that it is often unequally spaced, because the measurement intervals within a day are deliberately varied, and measurement continues over several days. This poses a problem for discrete-time (DT) modeling approaches, which are based on the assumption that all measurements are equally spaced. Nevertheless, DT approaches such as (vector) autoregressive modeling are often used to analyze ESM data, for instance in the context of affective dynamics research. There are equivalent continuous-time (CT) models, but they are more difficult to implement. In this paper we take a pragmatic approach and evaluate the practical relevance of the violated model assumption in DT AR(1) and VAR(1) models, for the N = 1 case. We use simulated data under an ESM measurement design to investigate the bias in the parameters of interest under four different model implementations, ranging from the true CT model that accounts for all the exact measurement times, to the crudest possible DT model implementation, where even the nighttime is treated as a regular interval. An analysis of empirical affect data illustrates how the differences between DT and CT modeling can play out in practice. We find that the size and the direction of the bias in DT (V)AR models for unequally spaced ESM data depend quite strongly on the true parameter in addition to data characteristics. Our recommendation is to use CT modeling whenever possible, especially now that new software implementations have become available. PMID:29104554

Real-time sampling of reasons for hedonic food consumption: further validation of the Palatable Eating Motives Scale

PubMed Central

Boggiano, Mary M.; Wenger, Lowell E.; Turan, Bulent; Tatum, Mindy M.; Sylvester, Maria D.; Morgan, Phillip R.; Morse, Kathryn E.; Burgess, Emilee E.

2015-01-01

Highly palatable foods play a salient role in obesity and binge-eating, and if habitually eaten to deal with intrinsic and extrinsic factors unrelated to metabolic need, may compromise adaptive coping and interpersonal skills. This study used event sampling methodology (ESM) to examine whether individuals who report eating palatable foods primarily to cope, to enhance reward, to be social, or to conform, as measured by the Palatable Eating Motives Scale (PEMS), actually eat these foods primarily for the motive(s) they report on the PEMS. Secondly this study examined if the previously reported ability of the PEMS Coping motive to predict BMI would replicate if the real-time (ESM-reported) coping motive was used to predict BMI. A total of 1691 palatable eating events were collected from 169 college students over 4 days. Each event included the day, time, and types of tasty foods or drinks consumed followed by a survey that included an abbreviated version of the PEMS, hunger as an additional possible motive, and a question assessing general perceived stress during the eating event. Two-levels mixed modeling confirmed that ESM-reported motives correlated most strongly with their respective PEMS motives and that all were negatively associated with eating for hunger. While stress surrounding the eating event was strongly associated with the ESM-coping motive, its inclusion in the model as a predictor of this motive did not abolish the significant association between ESM and PEMS Coping scores. Regression models confirmed that scores on the ESM-coping motive predicted BMI. These findings provide ecological validity for the PEMS to identify true-to-life motives for consuming palatable foods. This further adds to the utility of the PEMS in individualizing, and hence improving, treatment strategies for obesity, binge-eating, dietary nutrition, coping, reward acquisition, and psychosocial skills. PMID:26082744

Changes in interannual climate sensitivities of terrestrial carbon fluxes during the 21st century predicted by CMIP5 Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yongwen; Wang, Tao; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong

2016-03-01

Terrestrial carbon fluxes are sensitive to climate change, but the interannual climate sensitivity of the land carbon cycle can also change with time. We analyzed the changes in responses of net biome production (NBP), net primary production (NPP), and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) to interannual climate variations over the 21st century in the Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, interannual temperature sensitivities of NBP (γTempNBP), NPP (γTempNPP), and Rh (γTempRh) remain relatively stable at global scale, yet with large differences among ESMs and spatial heterogeneity. Modeled γTempNPP and γTempRh appear to increase in parallel in boreal regions, resulting in unchanged γTempNBP. Tropical γTempNBP decreases in most models, due to decreasing γTempNPP and relatively stable γTempRh. Across models, the changes in γTempNBP can be mainly explained by changes in γTempNPP rather than changes in γTempRh, at both global and regional scales. Interannual precipitation sensitivities of global NBP (γPrecNBP), NPP (γPrecNPP), and Rh (γPrecRh) are predicted not to change significantly, with large differences among ESMs. Across models, the changes in γPrecNBP can be mainly explained by changes in γPrecNPP rather than changes in γPrecRh in temperate regions, but not in other regions. Changes in the interannual climate sensitivities of carbon fluxes are consistent across RCPs 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 but larger in more intensive scenarios. More effort should be considered to improve terrestrial carbon flux responses to interannual climate variability, e.g., incorporating biogeochemical processes of nutrient limitation, permafrost dynamics, and microbial decomposition.

Climatic effects of large-scale deforestation in Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brovkin, V.; Boysen, L.; Pongratz, J.

2017-12-01

Processes in terrestrial ecosystems, to a large extent, are controlled by climate and CO2 concentration. In turn, geographical distribution of vegetation cover strongly affects heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes between land surface and atmosphere (biogeophysical effects). Anthropogenic land use and land cover changes (LULCC) are now included into Earth System Models (ESMs) in the form of historical and hypothetical future scenarios as a forcing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison project, phase 6 (CMIP6). A propagation of climatic effects from land to the ocean in ESMs allows to investigate a global climate response to LULCC in addition to analysis of local effects over deforested land. One complication in the analysis of global climatic effects of historical and future LULCC scenarios is their relatively small amplitude. To increase the signal-to-noise ratio, the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) suggested an idealized deforestation simulation following a prototype of 1%-CO2 increase experiment commonly used in CMIPs. The idealized experiment allows to investigate - in a harmonized way across models - a response of land surface biophysics and climate to a large-scale deforestation of 20 million km2 distributed over the most forested parts of globe. The forest is removed linearly over a period of 50 years, with an additional 30 years with no specified change in forest cover. Boundary conditions such as CO2 concentration and other forcings are kept at the pre-industrial level. We will present results of idealized deforestation experiments and other sensitivity runs with the CMIP6-version of MPI-ESM, which will be part of the later multi-model comparison. A special focus will be put on less well investigated aspects of LULCC that the idealized setup is particularly well suited for studying, such as non-linearities of the model response to the deforestation forcing and detectability of the signal over time.

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, P. E.; Calvin, K. V.; Jones, A. D.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Chini, L. P.; Shi, X.; Mao, J.; Collins, W. D.; Edmonds, J.; Hurtt, G. C.

2017-12-01

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. In this work we show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Land ecosystem response to increased carbon dioxide concentration, increased anthropogenic nitrogen deposition, and changes in temperature and precipitation all play a role. The feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated in this work are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.

Towards Actionable Waterborne and Vector-borne Disease Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaitchik, B. F.

2015-12-01

Numerous studies have shown that remote sensing (RS) and Earth System Models (ESM) can make important contributions to the analysis, monitoring and prediction of waterborne and vector-borne illnesses. Unsurprisingly, however, the great majority of these studies have been proof-of-concept investigations, and vanishingly few have been translated into operational and utilized disease early warning systems. To some extent this is simply an example of the general challenge of translating research findings into decision-relevant operations. Disease early warning, however, entails specific challenges that distinguish it from many other fields of environmental monitoring and prediction. Some of these challenges stem from predictability and data constraints, while others relate to the difficulty of communicating predictions and the particularly high price of false alarms. This presentation will review progress on the translation of analysis to decision making, identify avenues for enhancing forecast utility, and propose priorities for future RS and ESM investments in disease monitoring and prediction.

Plant functional diversity affects climate-vegetation interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groner, Vivienne P.; Raddatz, Thomas; Reick, Christian H.; Claussen, Martin

2018-04-01

We present how variations in plant functional diversity affect climate-vegetation interaction towards the end of the African Humid Period (AHP) in coupled land-atmosphere simulations using the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM). In experiments with AHP boundary conditions, the extent of the green Sahara varies considerably with changes in plant functional diversity. Differences in vegetation cover extent and plant functional type (PFT) composition translate into significantly different land surface parameters, water cycling, and surface energy budgets. These changes have not only regional consequences but considerably alter large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and the position of the tropical rain belt. Towards the end of the AHP, simulations with the standard PFT set in MPI-ESM depict a gradual decrease of precipitation and vegetation cover over time, while simulations with modified PFT composition show either a sharp decline of both variables or an even slower retreat. Thus, not the quantitative but the qualitative PFT composition determines climate-vegetation interaction and the climate-vegetation system response to external forcing. The sensitivity of simulated system states to changes in PFT composition raises the question how realistically Earth system models can actually represent climate-vegetation interaction, considering the poor representation of plant diversity in the current generation of land surface models.

Evaluation of the New Dynamic Global Vegetation Model in CAS-ESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jiawen; Zeng, Xiaodong; Zhang, Minghua; Dai, Yongjiu; Ji, Duoying; Li, Fang; Zhang, Qian; Zhang, He; Song, Xiang

2018-06-01

In the past several decades, dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have been the most widely used and appropriate tool at the global scale to investigate vegetation-climate interactions. At the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, a new version of DGVM (IAP-DGVM) has been developed and coupled to the Common Land Model (CoLM) within the framework of the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Earth System Model (CAS-ESM). This work reports the performance of IAP-DGVM through comparisons with that of the default DGVM of CoLM (CoLM-DGVM) and observations. With respect to CoLMDGVM, IAP-DGVM simulated fewer tropical trees, more "needleleaf evergreen boreal tree" and "broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub", and a better representation of grasses. These contributed to a more realistic vegetation distribution in IAP-DGVM, including spatial patterns, total areas, and compositions. Moreover, IAP-DGVM also produced more accurate carbon fluxes than CoLM-DGVM when compared with observational estimates. Gross primary productivity and net primary production in IAP-DGVM were in better agreement with observations than those of CoLM-DGVM, and the tropical pattern of fire carbon emissions in IAP-DGVM was much more consistent with the observation than that in CoLM-DGVM. The leaf area index simulated by IAP-DGVM was closer to the observation than that of CoLM-DGVM; however, both simulated values about twice as large as in the observation. This evaluation provides valuable information for the application of CAS-ESM, as well as for other model communities in terms of a comparative benchmark.

What spatial scales are believable for climate model projections of sea surface temperature?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwiatkowski, Lester; Halloran, Paul R.; Mumby, Peter J.; Stephenson, David B.

2014-09-01

Earth system models (ESMs) provide high resolution simulations of variables such as sea surface temperature (SST) that are often used in off-line biological impact models. Coral reef modellers have used such model outputs extensively to project both regional and global changes to coral growth and bleaching frequency. We assess model skill at capturing sub-regional climatologies and patterns of historical warming. This study uses an established wavelet-based spatial comparison technique to assess the skill of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 models to capture spatial SST patterns in coral regions. We show that models typically have medium to high skill at capturing climatological spatial patterns of SSTs within key coral regions, with model skill typically improving at larger spatial scales (≥4°). However models have much lower skill at modelling historical warming patters and are shown to often perform no better than chance at regional scales (e.g. Southeast Asian) and worse than chance at finer scales (<8°). Our findings suggest that output from current generation ESMs is not yet suitable for making sub-regional projections of change in coral bleaching frequency and other marine processes linked to SST warming.

Evaluation of Multiple Mechanistic Hypotheses of Leaf Photosynthesis and Stomatal Conductance against Diurnal and Seasonal Data from Two Contrasting Panamanian Tropical Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serbin, S.; Walker, A. P.; Wu, J.; Ely, K.; Rogers, A.; Wolfe, B.

2017-12-01

Tropical forests play a key role in regulating the global carbon (C), water, and energy cycles and stores, as well as influence climate through the exchanges of mass and energy with the atmosphere. However, projected changes in temperature and precipitation patterns are expected to impact the tropics and the strength of the tropical C sink, likely resulting in significant climate feedbacks. Moreover, the impact of stronger, longer, and more extensive droughts not well understood. Critical for the accurate modeling of the tropical C and water cycle in Earth System Models (ESMs) is the representation of the coupled photosynthetic and stomatal conductance processes and how these processes are impacted by environmental and other drivers. Moreover, the parameterization and representation of these processes is an important consideration for ESM projections. We use a novel model framework, the Multi-Assumption Architecture and Testbed (MAAT), together with the open-source bioinformatics toolbox, the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn), to explore the impact of the multiple mechanistic hypotheses of coupled photosynthesis and stomatal conductance as well as the additional uncertainty related to model parameterization. Our goal was to better understand how model choice and parameterization influences diurnal and seasonal modeling of leaf-level photosynthesis and stomatal conductance. We focused on the 2016 ENSO period and starting in February, monthly measurements of diurnal photosynthesis and conductance were made on 7-9 dominant species at the two Smithsonian canopy crane sites. This benchmark dataset was used to test different representations of stomatal conductance and photosynthetic parameterizations with the MAAT model, running within PEcAn. The MAAT model allows for the easy selection of competing hypotheses to test different photosynthetic modeling approaches while PEcAn provides the ability to explore the uncertainties introduced through parameterization. We found that stomatal choice can play a large role in model-data mismatch and observational constraints can be used to reduce simulated model spread, but can also result in large model disagreements with measurements. These results will be used to help inform the modeling of photosynthesis in tropical systems for the larger ESM community.

A JavaScript API for the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) 4.11: towards an online interactive model for the cryosphere community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larour, Eric; Cheng, Daniel; Perez, Gilberto; Quinn, Justin; Morlighem, Mathieu; Duong, Bao; Nguyen, Lan; Petrie, Kit; Harounian, Silva; Halkides, Daria; Hayes, Wayne

2017-12-01

Earth system models (ESMs) are becoming increasingly complex, requiring extensive knowledge and experience to deploy and use in an efficient manner. They run on high-performance architectures that are significantly different from the everyday environments that scientists use to pre- and post-process results (i.e., MATLAB, Python). This results in models that are hard to use for non-specialists and are increasingly specific in their application. It also makes them relatively inaccessible to the wider science community, not to mention to the general public. Here, we present a new software/model paradigm that attempts to bridge the gap between the science community and the complexity of ESMs by developing a new JavaScript application program interface (API) for the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). The aforementioned API allows cryosphere scientists to run ISSM on the client side of a web page within the JavaScript environment. When combined with a web server running ISSM (using a Python API), it enables the serving of ISSM computations in an easy and straightforward way. The deep integration and similarities between all the APIs in ISSM (MATLAB, Python, and now JavaScript) significantly shortens and simplifies the turnaround of state-of-the-art science runs and their use by the larger community. We demonstrate our approach via a new Virtual Earth System Laboratory (VESL) website (http://vesl.jpl.nasa.gov, VESL(2017)).

A Data-Driven Assessment of the Sensitivity of Global Ecosystems to Climate Anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miralles, D. G.; Papagiannopoulou, C.; Demuzere, M.; Decubber, S.; Waegeman, W.; Verhoest, N.; Dorigo, W.

2017-12-01

Vegetation is a central player in the climate system, constraining atmospheric conditions through a series of feedbacks. This fundamental role highlights the importance of understanding regional drivers of ecological sensitivity and the response of vegetation to climatic changes. While nutrient availability and short-term disturbances can be crucial for vegetation at various spatiotemporal scales, natural vegetation dynamics are overall driven by climate. At monthly scales, the interactions between vegetation and climate become complex: some vegetation types react preferentially to specific climatic changes, with different levels of intensity, resilience and lagged response. For our current Earth System Models (ESMs) being able to capture this complexity is crucial but extremely challenging. This adds uncertainty to our projections of future climate and the fate of global ecosystems. Here, following a Granger causality framework based on a non-linear random forest predictive model, we exploit the current wealth of satellite data records to uncover the main climatic drivers of monthly vegetation variability globally. Results based on three decades of satellite data indicate that water availability is the most dominant factor driving vegetation in over 60% of the vegetated land. This overall dependency of ecosystems on water availability is larger than previously reported, partly owed to the ability of our machine-learning framework to disentangle the co-linearites between climatic drivers, and to quantify non-linear impacts of climate on vegetation. Our observation-based results are then used to benchmark ESMs on their representation of vegetation sensitivity to climate and climatic extremes. Our findings indicate that the sensitivity of vegetation to climatic anomalies is ill-reproduced by some widely-used ESMs.

Electrical Pressurization Concept for the Orion MPCV European Service Module Propulsion System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meiss, Jan-Hendrik; Weber, Jorg; Ierardo, Nicola; Quinn, Frank D.; Paisley, Jonathan

2015-01-01

The paper presents the design of the pressurization system of the European Service Module (ESM) of the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV). Being part of the propulsion subsystem, an electrical pressurization concept is implemented to condition propellants according to the engine needs via a bang-bang regulation system. Separate pressurization for the oxidizer and the fuel tank permits mixture ratio adjustments and prevents vapor mixing of the two hypergolic propellants during nominal operation. In case of loss of pressurization capability of a single side, the system can be converted into a common pressurization system. The regulation concept is based on evaluation of a set of tank pressure sensors and according activation of regulation valves, based on a single-failure tolerant weighting of three pressure signals. While regulation is performed on ESM level, commanding of regulation parameters as well as failure detection, isolation and recovery is performed from within the Crew Module, developed by Lockheed Martin Space System Company. The overall design and development maturity presented is post Preliminary Design Review (PDR) and reflects the current status of the MPCV ESM pressurization system.

Biotic responses buffer warming-induced soil organic carbon loss in Arctic tundra.

PubMed

Liang, Junyi; Xia, Jiangyang; Shi, Zheng; Jiang, Lifen; Ma, Shuang; Lu, Xingjie; Mauritz, Marguerite; Natali, Susan M; Pegoraro, Elaine; Penton, C Ryan; Plaza, César; Salmon, Verity G; Celis, Gerardo; Cole, James R; Konstantinidis, Konstantinos T; Tiedje, James M; Zhou, Jizhong; Schuur, Edward A G; Luo, Yiqi

2018-05-26

Climate warming can result in both abiotic (e.g., permafrost thaw) and biotic (e.g., microbial functional genes) changes in Arctic tundra. Recent research has incorporated dynamic permafrost thaw in Earth system models (ESMs) and indicates that Arctic tundra could be a significant future carbon (C) source due to the enhanced decomposition of thawed deep soil C. However, warming-induced biotic changes may influence biologically related parameters and the consequent projections in ESMs. How model parameters associated with biotic responses will change under warming and to what extent these changes affect projected C budgets have not been carefully examined. In this study, we synthesized six data sets over five years from a soil warming experiment at the Eight Mile Lake, Alaska, into the Terrestrial ECOsystem (TECO) model with a probabilistic inversion approach. The TECO model used multiple soil layers to track dynamics of thawed soil under different treatments. Our results show that warming increased light use efficiency of vegetation photosynthesis but decreased baseline (i.e., environment-corrected) turnover rates of SOC in both the fast and slow pools in comparison with those under control. Moreover, the parameter changes generally amplified over time, suggesting processes of gradual physiological acclimation and functional gene shifts of both plants and microbes. The TECO model predicted that field warming from 2009 to 2013 resulted in cumulative C losses of 224 or 87 g m -2 , respectively, without or with changes in those parameters. Thus, warming-induced parameter changes reduced predicted soil C loss by 61%. Our study suggests that it is critical to incorporate biotic changes in ESMs to improve the model performance in predicting C dynamics in permafrost regions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Snow Climatology of Arctic Sea Ice: Comparison of Reanalysis and Climate Model Data with In Situ Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chevooruvalappil Chandran, B.; Pittana, M.; Haas, C.

2015-12-01

Snow on sea ice is a critical and complex factor influencing sea ice processes. Deep snow with a high albedo and low thermal conductivity inhibits ice growth in winter and minimizes ice loss in summer. Very shallow or absent snow promotes ice growth in winter and ice loss in summer. The timing of snow ablation critically impacts summer sea ice mass balance. Here we assess the accuracy of various snow on sea ice data products from reanalysis and modeling comparing them with in situ measurements. The latter are based on the Warren et al. (1999) monthly climatology derived from snow ruler measurements between 1954-1991, and on daily snow depth retrievals from few drifting ice mass balance buoys (IMB) with sufficiently long observations spanning the summer season. These were compared with snow depth data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 (NCEP), the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4), and the Canadian Earth System Model 2 (CanESM2). Results are quite variable in different years and regions. However, there is often good agreement between CanESM2 and IMB snow depth during the winter accumulation and spring melt periods. Regional analyses show that over the western Arctic covered primarily with multiyear ice NCEP snow depths are in good agreement with the Warren climatology while CCSM4 overestimates snow depth. However, in the Eastern Arctic which is dominated by first-year ice the opposite behavior is observed. Compared to the Warren climatology CanESM2 underestimates snow depth in all regions. Differences between different snow depth products are as large as 10 to 20 cm, with large consequences for the sea ice mass balance. However, it is also very difficult to evaluate the accuracy of reanalysis and model snow depths due to a lack of extensive, continuous in situ measurements.

Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) System Engineering Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, Laurie J.

2009-01-01

This slide presentation begins with a recap on a previous lecture on the ECLSS subsystems, and the various types (i.e., Non-regenerative vs Regenerative, open loop vs closed loop, and physical-chemical vs bioregenerative) It also recaps the Equivalent system mass (ESM) metric. The presentation continues with a review of the ECLSS of the various NASA manned space exploration programs from Mercury, to the current planned Altair lunar landing, and Lunar base operations. There is also a team project to establish the ESM of two conceptualized missions.

Edgeworth streaming model for redshift space distortions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uhlemann, Cora; Kopp, Michael; Haugg, Thomas

2015-09-01

We derive the Edgeworth streaming model (ESM) for the redshift space correlation function starting from an arbitrary distribution function for biased tracers of dark matter by considering its two-point statistics and show that it reduces to the Gaussian streaming model (GSM) when neglecting non-Gaussianities. We test the accuracy of the GSM and ESM independent of perturbation theory using the Horizon Run 2 N -body halo catalog. While the monopole of the redshift space halo correlation function is well described by the GSM, higher multipoles improve upon including the leading order non-Gaussian correction in the ESM: the GSM quadrupole breaks down on scales below 30 Mpc /h whereas the ESM stays accurate to 2% within statistical errors down to 10 Mpc /h . To predict the scale-dependent functions entering the streaming model we employ convolution Lagrangian perturbation theory (CLPT) based on the dust model and local Lagrangian bias. Since dark matter halos carry an intrinsic length scale given by their Lagrangian radius, we extend CLPT to the coarse-grained dust model and consider two different smoothing approaches operating in Eulerian and Lagrangian space, respectively. The coarse graining in Eulerian space features modified fluid dynamics different from dust while the coarse graining in Lagrangian space is performed in the initial conditions with subsequent single-streaming dust dynamics, implemented by smoothing the initial power spectrum in the spirit of the truncated Zel'dovich approximation. Finally, we compare the predictions of the different coarse-grained models for the streaming model ingredients to N -body measurements and comment on the proper choice of both the tracer distribution function and the smoothing scale. Since the perturbative methods we considered are not yet accurate enough on small scales, the GSM is sufficient when applied to perturbation theory.

The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M - Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iversen, T.; Bentsen, M.; Bethke, I.; Debernard, J. B.; Kirkevåg, A.; Seland, Ø.; Drange, H.; Kristjánsson, J. E.; Medhaug, I.; Sand, M.; Seierstad, I. A.

2012-09-01

The NorESM1-M simulation results for CMIP5 (http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/index.html) are described and discussed. Together with the accompanying paper by Bentsen et al. (2012), this paper documents that NorESM1-M is a valuable global climate model for research and for providing complementary results to the evaluation of possible man made climate change. NorESM is based on the model CCSM4 operated at NCAR on behalf of many contributors in USA. The ocean model is replaced by a developed version of MICOM and the atmospheric model is extended with on-line calculations of aerosols, their direct effect, and their indirect effect on warm clouds. Model validation is presented in a companion paper (Bentsen et al., 2012). NorESM1-M is estimated to have equilibrium climate sensitivity slightly smaller than 2.9 K, a transient climate response just below 1.4 K, and is less sensitive than most other models. Cloud feedbacks damp the response, and a strong AMOC reduces the heat fraction available for increasing near surface temperatures, for evaporation, and for melting ice. The future projections based on RCP scenarios yield global surface air temperature increase almost one standard deviation lower than a 15-model average. Summer sea-ice is projected to decrease considerably by 2100, and completely for RCP8.5. The AMOC is projected to reduce by 12%, 15-17%, and 32% for the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 respectively. Precipitation is projected to increase in the tropics, decrease in the subtropics and in southern parts of the northern extra-tropics during summer, and otherwise increase in most of the extra-tropics. Changes in the atmospheric water cycle indicate that precipitation events over continents will become more intense and dry spells more frequent. Extra-tropical storminess in the Northern Hemisphere is projected to shift northwards. There are indications of more frequent spring and summer blocking in the Euro-Atlantic sectors and that ENSO events weaken but appear more frequent. These indications are uncertain because of biases in the model's representation of present-day conditions. There are indications that positive phase PNA and negative phase NAO become less frequent under the RCP8.5 scenario, but also this result is considered uncertain. Single-forcing experiments indicate that aerosols and greenhouse gases produce similar geographical patterns of response for near surface temperature and precipitation. These patterns tend to have opposite sign, with important exceptions for precipitation at low latitudes. The asymmetric aerosol effects between the two hemispheres leads to a southward displacement of ITCZ. Both forcing agents thus tend to reduce northern hemispheric subtropical precipitation.

Eggshell membrane as a novel bio sorbent for remediation of boron from desalinated water.

PubMed

Al-Ghouti, Mohammad A; Khan, Mariam

2018-02-01

This study investigated the use of eggshell membrane (ESM) as a bio-sorbent and the effect of temperature, pH, and initial concentration on its efficiency. Furthermore, by altering the chemical composition, modified eggshell membrane (MESM) was prepared, and its efficiency was compared with the ESM. Results showed that the adsorption of boron preferred an acidic condition; pH 6 at 35 °C. In addition, the positive value of ΔH° suggested that the reaction favored endothermic pathway, while the negative value for ΔG° further suggested that the adsorption process was spontaneous. Furthermore, the ESM could adsorb 97% of boron, while MESM was able to adsorb 95%. From the Fourier transform infrared (FTIR), different functional groups were recorded on the surface of the ESM and MESM, and they played key role in the boron adsorption mechanisms. Linear Freundlich model was suggested to best describe the experimental data with 99.4% correlation coefficient. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulating Snow in Canadian Boreal Environments with CLASS for ESM-SnowMIP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Bartlett, P. A.; Derksen, C.; Ireson, A. M.; Essery, R.

2017-12-01

The ability of land surface schemes to provide realistic simulations of snow cover is necessary for accurate representation of energy and water balances in climate models. Historically, this has been particularly challenging in boreal forests, where poor treatment of both snow masking by forests and vegetation-snow interaction has resulted in biases in simulated albedo and snowpack properties, with subsequent effects on both regional temperatures and the snow albedo feedback in coupled simulations. The SnowMIP (Snow Model Intercomparison Project) series of experiments or `MIPs' was initiated in order to provide assessments of the performance of various snow- and land-surface-models at selected locations, in order to understand the primary factors affecting model performance. Here we present preliminary results of simulations conducted for the third such MIP, ESM-SnowMIP (Earth System Model - Snow Model Intercomparison Project), using the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) at boreal forest sites in central Saskatchewan. We assess the ability of our latest model version (CLASS 3.6.2) to simulate observed snowpack properties (snow water equivalent, density and depth) and above-canopy albedo over 13 winters. We also examine the sensitivity of these simulations to climate forcing at local and regional scales.

The BGC Feedbacks Scientific Focus Area 2016 Annual Progress Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M.; Riley, William J.; Randerson, James T.

2016-06-01

The BGC Feedbacks Project will identify and quantify the feedbacks between biogeochemical cycles and the climate system, and quantify and reduce the uncertainties in Earth System Models (ESMs) associated with those feedbacks. The BGC Feedbacks Project will contribute to the integration of the experimental and modeling science communities, providing researchers with new tools to compare measurements and models, thereby enabling DOE to contribute more effectively to future climate assessments by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Shifts in nitrogen acquisition strategies enable enhanced terrestrial carbon storage under elevated CO2 in a global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulman, B. N.; Brzostek, E. R.; Menge, D.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.

2017-12-01

Earth System Model (ESM) projections of terrestrial carbon (C) uptake are critical to understanding the future of the global C cycle. Current ESMs include intricate representations of photosynthetic C fixation in plants, allowing them to simulate the stimulatory effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 levels on photosynthesis. However, they lack sophisticated representations of plant nutrient acquisition, calling into question their ability to project the future land C sink. We conducted simulations using a new model of terrestrial C and nitrogen (N) cycling within the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global land model LM4 that uses a return on investment framework to simulate global patterns of N acquisition via fixation of N2 from the atmosphere, scavenging of inorganic N from soil solution, and mining of organic N from soil organic matter (SOM). We show that these strategies drive divergent C cycle responses to elevated CO2 at the ecosystem scale, with the scavenging strategy leading to N limitation of plant growth and the mining strategy facilitating stimulation of plant biomass accumulation over decadal time scales. In global simulations, shifts in N acquisition from inorganic N scavenging to organic N mining along with increases in N fixation supported long-term acceleration of C uptake under elevated CO2. Our results indicate that the ability of the land C sink to mitigate atmospheric CO2 levels is tightly coupled to the functional diversity of ecosystems and their capacity to change their N acquisition strategies over time. Incorporation of these mechanisms into ESMs is necessary to improve confidence in model projections of the global C cycle.

Characteristics of children with elevated symptoms of mania: the Longitudinal Assessment of Manic Symptoms (LAMS) Study

PubMed Central

Findling, Robert L.; Youngstrom, Eric A.; Fristad, Mary A.; Birmaher, Boris; Kowatch, Robert A.; Arnold, L. Eugene; Frazier, Thomas W.; Axelson, David; Ryan, Neal; Demeter, Christine; Gill, Mary Kay; Fields, Benjamin; Depew, Judith; Kennedy, Shawn M.; Marsh, Linda; Rowles, Brieana M.; Horwitz, Sarah McCue

2011-01-01

Objective To examine differences in psychiatric symptomatology, diagnoses, demographics, functioning, and psychotropic medication exposure in children with elevated symptoms of mania (ESM+) compared to youth without ESM (ESM−). Method Guardians of consecutively ascertained new outpatients 6 to 12 years of age were asked to complete the Parent General Behavior Inventory-10 Item Mania Scale (PGBI-10M). Patients with scores ≥ 12 on the PGBI-10M (ESM+) and a matched sample of screen negatives (ESM−) were invited to participate. Results 707 children [621 ESM+, 86 ESM−; mean age 9.4 (2.0) years] were evaluated. The ESM+ group, compared to the ESM− group, more frequently met DSM-IV criteria for a mood disorder (p< 0.001), bipolar spectrum disorders (BPSD, p< 0.001), and disruptive behavior disorders (p<0.01). Furthermore, they showed poorer overall functioning and more severe manic, depressive, attention deficit/hyperactivity, disruptive behavioral, and anxiety symptoms. Nevertheless, rates of BPSD were relatively low in the ESM+ group (25%), with almost half of these BPSD patients (12.1% of ESM+) meeting DSM-IV criteria for bipolar disorder not otherwise specified (BP-NOS). ESM+ children with BPSD had significantly more: current prescriptions for antipsychotics, mood stabilizers and anticonvulsants; psychiatric hospitalizations, and biological parents with elevated mood; and were lower functioning compared to ESM+ children without BPSD. Conclusion Although ESM+ was associated with higher rates of BPSD than ESM−, 75% of ESM+ children did not meet criteria for BSPD. Results suggest longitudinal assessment is needed to examine which factors are associated with diagnostic evolution to BPSD in children with ESM+. PMID:21034685

Epidemic spreading model to characterize misfolded proteins propagation in aging and associated neurodegenerative disorders.

PubMed

Iturria-Medina, Yasser; Sotero, Roberto C; Toussaint, Paule J; Evans, Alan C

2014-11-01

Misfolded proteins (MP) are a key component in aging and associated neurodegenerative disorders. For example, misfolded Amyloid-ß (Aß) and tau proteins are two neuropathogenic hallmarks of Alzheimer's disease. Mechanisms underlying intra-brain MP propagation/deposition remain essentially uncharacterized. Here, is introduced an epidemic spreading model (ESM) for MP dynamics that considers propagation-like interactions between MP agents and the brain's clearance response across the structural connectome. The ESM reproduces advanced Aß deposition patterns in the human brain (explaining 46∼56% of the variance in regional Aß loads, in 733 subjects from the ADNI database). Furthermore, this model strongly supports a) the leading role of Aß clearance deficiency and early Aß onset age during Alzheimer's disease progression, b) that effective anatomical distance from Aß outbreak region explains regional Aß arrival time and Aß deposition likelihood, c) the multi-factorial impact of APOE e4 genotype, gender and educational level on lifetime intra-brain Aß propagation, and d) the modulatory impact of Aß propagation history on tau proteins concentrations, supporting the hypothesis of an interrelated pathway between Aß pathophysiology and tauopathy. To our knowledge, the ESM is the first computational model highlighting the direct link between structural brain networks, production/clearance of pathogenic proteins and associated intercellular transfer mechanisms, individual genetic/demographic properties and clinical states in health and disease. In sum, the proposed ESM constitutes a promising framework to clarify intra-brain region to region transference mechanisms associated with aging and neurodegenerative disorders.

Epidemic Spreading Model to Characterize Misfolded Proteins Propagation in Aging and Associated Neurodegenerative Disorders

PubMed Central

Iturria-Medina, Yasser; Sotero, Roberto C.; Toussaint, Paule J.; Evans, Alan C.

2014-01-01

Misfolded proteins (MP) are a key component in aging and associated neurodegenerative disorders. For example, misfolded Amyloid-ß (Aß) and tau proteins are two neuropathogenic hallmarks of Alzheimer's disease. Mechanisms underlying intra-brain MP propagation/deposition remain essentially uncharacterized. Here, is introduced an epidemic spreading model (ESM) for MP dynamics that considers propagation-like interactions between MP agents and the brain's clearance response across the structural connectome. The ESM reproduces advanced Aß deposition patterns in the human brain (explaining 46∼56% of the variance in regional Aß loads, in 733 subjects from the ADNI database). Furthermore, this model strongly supports a) the leading role of Aß clearance deficiency and early Aß onset age during Alzheimer's disease progression, b) that effective anatomical distance from Aß outbreak region explains regional Aß arrival time and Aß deposition likelihood, c) the multi-factorial impact of APOE e4 genotype, gender and educational level on lifetime intra-brain Aß propagation, and d) the modulatory impact of Aß propagation history on tau proteins concentrations, supporting the hypothesis of an interrelated pathway between Aß pathophysiology and tauopathy. To our knowledge, the ESM is the first computational model highlighting the direct link between structural brain networks, production/clearance of pathogenic proteins and associated intercellular transfer mechanisms, individual genetic/demographic properties and clinical states in health and disease. In sum, the proposed ESM constitutes a promising framework to clarify intra-brain region to region transference mechanisms associated with aging and neurodegenerative disorders. PMID:25412207

Forecasting domestic water demand in the Haihe river basin under changing environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiao-Jun; Zhang, Jian-Yun; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Xie, Yu-Xuan; Zhang, Xu

2018-02-01

A statistical model has been developed for forecasting domestic water demand in Haihe river basin of China due to population growth, technological advances and climate change. Historical records of domestic water use, climate, population and urbanization are used for the development of model. An ensemble of seven general circulation models (GCMs) namely, BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CNRM-CM5, GISS-E2-R, MIROC-ESM, PI-ESM-LR, MRI-CGCM3 were used for the projection of climate and the changes in water demand in the Haihe River basin under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5. The results showed that domestic water demand in different sub-basins of the Haihe river basin will gradually increase due to continuous increase of population and rise in temperature. It is projected to increase maximum 136.22 × 108 m3 by GCM BNU-ESM and the minimum 107.25 × 108 m3 by CNRM-CM5 in 2030. In spite of uncertainty in projection, it can be remarked that climate change and population growth would cause increase in water demand and consequently, reduce the gap between water supply and demand, which eventually aggravate the condition of existing water stress in the basin. Water demand management should be emphasized for adaptation to ever increasing water demand and mitigation of the impacts of environmental changes.

Incorporation of ice sheet models into an Earth system model: Focus on methodology of coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybak, Oleg; Volodin, Evgeny; Morozova, Polina; Nevecherja, Artiom

2018-03-01

Elaboration of a modern Earth system model (ESM) requires incorporation of ice sheet dynamics. Coupling of an ice sheet model (ICM) to an AOGCM is complicated by essential differences in spatial and temporal scales of cryospheric, atmospheric and oceanic components. To overcome this difficulty, we apply two different approaches for the incorporation of ice sheets into an ESM. Coupling of the Antarctic ice sheet model (AISM) to the AOGCM is accomplished via using procedures of resampling, interpolation and assigning to the AISM grid points annually averaged meanings of air surface temperature and precipitation fields generated by the AOGCM. Surface melting, which takes place mainly on the margins of the Antarctic peninsula and on ice shelves fringing the continent, is currently ignored. AISM returns anomalies of surface topography back to the AOGCM. To couple the Greenland ice sheet model (GrISM) to the AOGCM, we use a simple buffer energy- and water-balance model (EWBM-G) to account for orographically-driven precipitation and other sub-grid AOGCM-generated quantities. The output of the EWBM-G consists of surface mass balance and air surface temperature to force the GrISM, and freshwater run-off to force thermohaline circulation in the oceanic block of the AOGCM. Because of a rather complex coupling procedure of GrIS compared to AIS, the paper mostly focuses on Greenland.

Molecular and biochemical characterization of mannitol-1-phosphate dehydrogenase from the model brown alga Ectocarpus sp.

PubMed

Bonin, Patricia; Groisillier, Agnès; Raimbault, Alice; Guibert, Anaïs; Boyen, Catherine; Tonon, Thierry

2015-09-01

The sugar alcohol mannitol is important in the food, pharmaceutical, medical and chemical industries. It is one of the most commonly occurring polyols in nature, with the exception of Archaea and animals. It has a range of physiological roles, including as carbon storage, compatible solute, and osmolyte. Mannitol is present in large amounts in brown algae, where its synthesis involved two steps: a mannitol-1-phosphate dehydrogenase (M1PDH) catalyzes a reversible reaction between fructose-6-phosphate (F6P) and mannitol-1-phosphate (M1P) (EC 1.1.1.17), and a mannitol-1-phosphatase hydrolyzes M1P to mannitol (EC 3.1.3.22). Analysis of the model brown alga Ectocarpus sp. genome provided three candidate genes for M1PDH activities. We report here the sequence analysis of Ectocarpus M1PDHs (EsM1PDHs), and the biochemical characterization of the recombinant catalytic domain of EsM1PDH1 (EsM1PDH1cat). Ectocarpus M1PDHs are representatives of a new type of modular M1PDHs among the polyol-specific long-chain dehydrogenases/reductases (PSLDRs). The N-terminal domain of EsM1PDH1 was not necessary for enzymatic activity. Determination of kinetic parameters indicated that EsM1PDH1cat displayed higher catalytic efficiency for F6P reduction compared to M1P oxidation. Both activities were influenced by NaCl concentration and inhibited by the thioreactive compound pHMB. These observations were completed by measurement of endogenous M1PDH activity and of EsM1PDH gene expression during one diurnal cycle. No significant changes in enzyme activity were monitored between day and night, although transcription of two out of three genes was altered, suggesting different levels of regulation for this key metabolic pathway in brown algal physiology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying Impacts of Land-use and Land Cover Change in a Changing Climate at the Regional Scale using an Integrated Earth System Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, M.

2016-12-01

Earth System models (ESMs) are effective tools for investigating the water-energy-food system interactions under climate change. In this presentation, I will introduce research efforts at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory towards quantifying impacts of LULCC on the water-energy-food nexus in a changing climate using an integrated regional Earth system modeling framework: the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA). Two studies will be discussed to showcase the capability of PRIMA: (1) quantifying changes in terrestrial hydrology over the Conterminous US (CONUS) from 2005 to 2095 using the Community Land Model (CLM) driven by high-resolution downscaled climate and land cover products from PRIMA, which was designed for assessing the impacts of and potential responses to climate and anthropogenic changes at regional scales; (2) applying CLM over the CONUS to provide the first county-scale model validation in simulating crop yields and assessing associated impacts on the water and energy budgets using CLM. The studies demonstrate the benefits of incorporating and coupling human activities into complex ESMs, and critical needs to account for the biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of LULCC in climate impacts studies, and in designing mitigation and adaptation strategies at a scale meaningful for decision-making. Future directions in quantifying LULCC impacts on the water-energy-food nexus under a changing climate, as well as feedbacks among climate, energy production and consumption, and natural/managed ecosystems using an Integrated Multi-scale, Multi-sector Modeling framework will also be discussed.

Soil frost-induced soil moisture precipitation feedback and effects on atmospheric states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagemann, Stefan; Blome, Tanja; Ekici, Altug; Beer, Christian

2016-04-01

Permafrost or perennially frozen ground is an important part of the terrestrial cryosphere; roughly one quarter of Earth's land surface is underlain by permafrost. As it is a thermal phenomenon, its characteristics are highly dependent on climatic factors. The impact of the currently observed warming, which is projected to persist during the coming decades due to anthropogenic CO2 input, certainly has effects for the vast permafrost areas of the high northern latitudes. The quantification of these effects, however, is scientifically still an open question. This is partly due to the complexity of the system, where several feedbacks are interacting between land and atmosphere, sometimes counterbalancing each other. Moreover, until recently, many global circulation models (GCMs) and Earth system models (ESMs) lacked the sufficient representation of permafrost physics in their land surface schemes. Within the European Union FP7 project PAGE21, the land surface scheme JSBACH of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology ESM (MPI-ESM) has been equipped with the representation of relevant physical processes for permafrost studies. These processes include the effects of freezing and thawing of soil water for both energy and water cycles, thermal properties depending on soil water and ice contents, and soil moisture movement being influenced by the presence of soil ice. In the present study, it will be analysed how these permafrost relevant processes impact large-scale hydrology and climate over northern hemisphere high latitude land areas. For this analysis, the atmosphere-land part of MPI-ESM, ECHAM6-JSBACH, is driven by prescribed observed SST and sea ice in an AMIP2-type setup with and without the newly implemented permafrost processes. Results show a large improvement in the simulated discharge. On one hand this is related to an improved snowmelt peak of runoff due to frozen soil in spring. On the other hand a subsequent reduction of soil moisture leads to a positive land atmosphere feedback to precipitation over the high latitudes, which reduces the model's wet biases in precipitation and evapotranspiration during the summer. This is noteworthy as soil moisture - atmosphere feedbacks have previously not been in the research focus over the high latitudes. These results point out the importance of high latitude physical processes at the land surface for the regional climate.

Uncertainty in Earth System Models: Benchmarks for Ocean Model Performance and Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogunro, O. O.; Elliott, S.; Collier, N.; Wingenter, O. W.; Deal, C.; Fu, W.; Hoffman, F. M.

2017-12-01

The mean ocean CO2 sink is a major component of the global carbon budget, with marine reservoirs holding about fifty times more carbon than the atmosphere. Phytoplankton play a significant role in the net carbon sink through photosynthesis and drawdown, such that about a quarter of anthropogenic CO2 emissions end up in the ocean. Biology greatly increases the efficiency of marine environments in CO2 uptake and ultimately reduces the impact of the persistent rise in atmospheric concentrations. However, a number of challenges remain in appropriate representation of marine biogeochemical processes in Earth System Models (ESM). These threaten to undermine the community effort to quantify seasonal to multidecadal variability in ocean uptake of atmospheric CO2. In a bid to improve analyses of marine contributions to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, we have developed new analysis methods and biogeochemistry metrics as part of the International Ocean Model Benchmarking (IOMB) effort. Our intent is to meet the growing diagnostic and benchmarking needs of ocean biogeochemistry models. The resulting software package has been employed to validate DOE ocean biogeochemistry results by comparison with observational datasets. Several other international ocean models contributing results to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were analyzed simultaneously. Our comparisons suggest that the biogeochemical processes determining CO2 entry into the global ocean are not well represented in most ESMs. Polar regions continue to show notable biases in many critical biogeochemical and physical oceanographic variables. Some of these disparities could have first order impacts on the conversion of atmospheric CO2 to organic carbon. In addition, single forcing simulations show that the current ocean state can be partly explained by the uptake of anthropogenic emissions. Combined effects of two or more of these forcings on ocean biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems are challenging to predict since additive or antagonistic effects may occur. A benchmarking tool for accurate assessment and validation of marine biogeochemical outputs will be indispensable as the model community continues to improve ESM developments. It will provide a first order tool in understanding climate-carbon cycle feedbacks.

[Forest fire risk assessment for China under different climate scenarios.

PubMed

Tian, Xiao Rui; Dai, Xuan; Wang, Ming Yu; Zhao, Feng Jun; Shu, Li Fu

2016-03-01

Forest fire risk depends on the hazard factors, affected body, and hazard prevention and reduction ability. The integrated risk assessment is the foundation for developing scientific fire mana-gement policies and carrying out the forest fire prevention measures. A forest fire risk assessment model and index system were established based on the classic natural disaster risk model and available data, and the model was used to assess the forest fire risks in past and future. The future climate scenario data included outputs from five global climate models (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M) for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Each component index of Fire Weather Index (FWI) system was calculated daily for each grid in 1987-2050 for the historical observations and future climate scenarios according to the maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, wind speed and daily precipitation. The results showed that areas with high and very high fire danger ratings in 1987-2010 accounted for 21.2% and 6.2%, respectively, which were distributed in Greater Xing'an Mountains and the Changbai Mountain area, most parts of Yunnan, and many fragment areas in southern China. The areas with high and very high burn possibilities were mainly distributed in the northeast and southwest region, accounting for 13.1% and 4.0%, respectively. Compared with the observation period, the areas with high and very high fire danger ratings in 2021-2050 would increase by 0.6%, 5.5%, 2.3%, and 3.5% under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 respectively, and North China would show significant increase. The regions with high-risk forest fires would also increase due to climate change, with the most significant increase under RCP 8.5 scenario (+1.6%).

Multiparticle dynamics in the E-phi tracking code ESME

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

James A. MacLachlan

2002-06-21

ESME has developed over a twenty year period from its origins as a program for modeling rf gymnastics to a rather general facility for that fraction of beam dynamics of synchrotrons and storage rings which can be properly treated in the two dimensional longitudinal phase space. The features of this program which serve particularly for multiparticle calculations are described, some underling principles are noted, and illustrative results are given.

Multiparticle Dynamics in the E-φ Tracking Code ESME

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacLachlan, James A.

2002-12-01

ESME has developed over a twenty year period from its origins as a program for modeling rf gymnastics to a rather general facility for that fraction of beam dynamics of synchrotrons and storage rings which can be properly treated in the two dimensional longitudinal phase space. The features of this program which serve particularly for multiparticle calculations are described, some uderlying principles are noted, and illustrative results are given.

Monthly streamflow forecasting at varying spatial scales in the Rhine basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schick, Simon; Rössler, Ole; Weingartner, Rolf

2018-02-01

Model output statistics (MOS) methods can be used to empirically relate an environmental variable of interest to predictions from earth system models (ESMs). This variable often belongs to a spatial scale not resolved by the ESM. Here, using the linear model fitted by least squares, we regress monthly mean streamflow of the Rhine River at Lobith and Basel against seasonal predictions of precipitation, surface air temperature, and runoff from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. To address potential effects of a scale mismatch between the ESM's horizontal grid resolution and the hydrological application, the MOS method is further tested with an experiment conducted at the subcatchment scale. This experiment applies the MOS method to 133 additional gauging stations located within the Rhine basin and combines the forecasts from the subcatchments to predict streamflow at Lobith and Basel. In doing so, the MOS method is tested for catchments areas covering 4 orders of magnitude. Using data from the period 1981-2011, the results show that skill, with respect to climatology, is restricted on average to the first month ahead. This result holds for both the predictor combination that mimics the initial conditions and the predictor combinations that additionally include the dynamical seasonal predictions. The latter, however, reduce the mean absolute error of the former in the range of 5 to 12 %, which is consistently reproduced at the subcatchment scale. An additional experiment conducted for 5-day mean streamflow indicates that the dynamical predictions help to reduce uncertainties up to about 20 days ahead, but it also reveals some shortcomings of the present MOS method.

Technical Note: The Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) - a new approach towards Earth System Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jöckel, P.; Sander, R.; Kerkweg, A.; Tost, H.; Lelieveld, J.

2005-02-01

The development of a comprehensive Earth System Model (ESM) to study the interactions between chemical, physical, and biological processes, requires coupling of the different domains (land, ocean, atmosphere, ...). One strategy is to link existing domain-specific models with a universal coupler, i.e. an independent standalone program organizing the communication between other programs. In many cases, however, a much simpler approach is more feasible. We have developed the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy). It comprises (1) a modular interface structure to connect to a , (2) an extendable set of such for miscellaneous processes, and (3) a coding standard. MESSy is therefore not a coupler in the classical sense, but exchanges data between a and several within one comprehensive executable. The internal complexity of the is controllable in a transparent and user friendly way. This provides remarkable new possibilities to study feedback mechanisms (by two-way coupling). Note that the MESSy and the coupler approach can be combined. For instance, an atmospheric model implemented according to the MESSy standard could easily be coupled to an ocean model by means of an external coupler. The vision is to ultimately form a comprehensive ESM which includes a large set of submodels, and a base model which contains only a central clock and runtime control. This can be reached stepwise, since each process can be included independently. Starting from an existing model, process submodels can be reimplemented according to the MESSy standard. This procedure guarantees the availability of a state-of-the-art model for scientific applications at any time of the development. In principle, MESSy can be implemented into any kind of model, either global or regional. So far, the MESSy concept has been applied to the general circulation model ECHAM5 and a number of process boxmodels.

Use of the experience sampling method in the context of clinical trials

PubMed Central

Verhagen, Simone J W; Hasmi, Laila; Drukker, Marjan; van Os, J; Delespaul, Philippe A E G

2016-01-01

Objective The experience sampling method (ESM) is a structured diary technique to appraise subjective experiences in daily life. It is applied in psychiatric patients, as well as in patients with somatic illness. Despite the potential of ESM assessment, the improved logistics and its increased administration in research, its use in clinical trials remains limited. This paper introduces ESM for clinical trials in psychiatry and beyond. Methods ESM is an ecologically valid method that yields a comprehensive view of an individual's daily life. It allows the assessment of various constructs (eg, quality of life, psychopathology) and psychological mechanisms (eg, stress-sensitivity, coping). These constructs are difficult to assess using cross-sectional questionnaires. ESM can be applied in treatment monitoring, as an ecological momentary intervention, in clinical trials, or in single case clinical trials. Technological advances (eg, smartphone applications) make its implementation easier. Results Advantages of ESM are highlighted and disadvantages are discussed. Furthermore, the ecological nature of ESM data and its consequences are explored, including the potential pitfalls of ambiguously formulated research questions and the specificities of ESM in statistical analyses. The last section focuses on ESM in relation to clinical trials and discusses its future use in optimising clinical decision-making. Conclusions ESM can be a valuable asset in clinical trial research and should be used more often to study the benefits of treatment in psychiatry and somatic health. PMID:27443678

An economic evaluation of solar radiation management.

PubMed

Aaheim, Asbjørn; Romstad, Bård; Wei, Taoyuan; Kristjánsson, Jón Egill; Muri, Helene; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke

2015-11-01

Economic evaluations of solar radiation management (SRM) usually assume that the temperature will be stabilized, with no economic impacts of climate change, but with possible side-effects. We know from experiments with climate models, however, that unlike emission control the spatial and temporal distributions of temperature, precipitation and wind conditions will change. Hence, SRM may have economic consequences under a stabilization of global mean temperature even if side-effects other than those related to the climatic responses are disregarded. This paper addresses the economic impacts of implementing two SRM technologies; stratospheric sulfur injection and marine cloud brightening. By the use of a computable general equilibrium model, we estimate the economic impacts of climatic responses based on the results from two earth system models, MPI-ESM and NorESM. We find that under a moderately increasing greenhouse-gas concentration path, RCP4.5, the economic benefits of implementing climate engineering are small, and may become negative. Global GDP increases in three of the four experiments and all experiments include regions where the benefits from climate engineering are negative. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of internal variability for decadal carbon uptake anomalies in the Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spring, Aaron; Hi, Hongmei; Ilyina, Tatiana

2017-04-01

The Southern Ocean is a major sink for anthropogenic CO2 emissions and hence it plays an essential role in modulating global carbon cycle and climate change. Previous studies based on observations (e.g., Landschützer et al. 2015) show pronounced decadal variations of carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean in recent decades and this variability is largely driven by internal climate variability. However, due to limited ensemble size of simulations, the variability of this important ocean sink is still poorly assessed by the state-of-the-art earth system models (ESMs). To assess the internal variability of carbon sink in the Southern Ocean, we use a large ensemble of 100 member simulations based on the Max Planck Institute-ESM (MPI-ESM). The large ensemble of simulations is generated via perturbed initial conditions in the ocean and atmosphere. Each ensemble member includes a historical simulation from 1850 to 2005 with an extension until 2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 future projections. Here we use model simulations from 1980-2015 to compare with available observation-based dataset. We found several ensemble members showing decadal decreasing trends in the carbon sink, which are similar to the trend shown in observations. This result suggests that MPI-ESM large ensemble simulations are able to reproduce decadal variation of carbon sink in the Southern Ocean. Moreover, the decreasing trends of Southern Ocean carbon sink in MPI-ESM are mainly contributed by region between 50-60°S. To understand the internal variability of the air-sea carbon fluxes in the Southern Ocean, we further investigate the variability of underlying processes, such as physical climate variability and ocean biological processes. Our results indicate two main drivers for the decadal decreasing trend of carbon sink: i) Intensified winds enhance upwelling of old carbon-rich waters, this leads to increase of the ocean surface pCO2; ii) Primary production is reduced in area from 50-60°S, probably induced by reduced euphotic water column stability; therefore the biological drawdown of ocean surface pCO2 is weakened accordingly and hence the ocean is in favor of carbon outgassing. Landschützer, et al. (2015): The reinvigoration of the Southern Ocean carbon sink, Science, 349, 1221-1224.

Reciprocal Markov Modeling of Feedback Mechanisms Between Emotion and Dietary Choice Using Experience-Sampling Data.

PubMed

Lu, Ji; Pan, Junhao; Zhang, Qiang; Dubé, Laurette; Ip, Edward H

2015-01-01

With intensively collected longitudinal data, recent advances in the experience-sampling method (ESM) benefit social science empirical research, but also pose important methodological challenges. As traditional statistical models are not generally well equipped to analyze a system of variables that contain feedback loops, this paper proposes the utility of an extended hidden Markov model to model reciprocal the relationship between momentary emotion and eating behavior. This paper revisited an ESM data set (Lu, Huet, & Dube, 2011) that observed 160 participants' food consumption and momentary emotions 6 times per day in 10 days. Focusing on the analyses on feedback loop between mood and meal-healthiness decision, the proposed reciprocal Markov model (RMM) can accommodate both hidden ("general" emotional states: positive vs. negative state) and observed states (meal: healthier, same or less healthy than usual) without presuming independence between observations and smooth trajectories of mood or behavior changes. The results of RMM analyses illustrated the reciprocal chains of meal consumption and mood as well as the effect of contextual factors that moderate the interrelationship between eating and emotion. A simulation experiment that generated data consistent with the empirical study further demonstrated that the procedure is promising in terms of recovering the parameters.

Test of High-resolution Global and Regional Climate Model Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenchikov, Georgiy; Nikulin, Grigory; Hansson, Ulf; Kjellström, Erik; Raj, Jerry; Bangalath, Hamza; Osipov, Sergey

2014-05-01

In scope of CORDEX project we have simulated the past (1975-2005) and future (2006-2050) climates using the GFDL global high-resolution atmospheric model (HIRAM) and the Rossby Center nested regional model RCA4 for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Both global and nested runs were performed with roughly the same spatial resolution of 25 km in latitude and longitude, and were driven by the 2°x2.5°-resolution fields from GFDL ESM2M IPCC AR5 runs. The global HIRAM simulations could naturally account for interaction of regional processes with the larger-scale circulation features like Indian Summer Monsoon, which is lacking from regional model setup. Therefore in this study we specifically address the consistency of "global" and "regional" downscalings. The performance of RCA4, HIRAM, and ESM2M is tested based on mean, extreme, trends, seasonal and inter-annual variability of surface temperature, precipitation, and winds. The impact of climate change on dust storm activity, extreme precipitation and water resources is specifically addressed. We found that the global and regional climate projections appear to be quite consistent for the modeled period and differ more significantly from ESM2M than between each other.

Diagnosing phosphorus limitations in natural terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Yan; Peng, Shushi; Goll, Daniel S.; Ciais, Philippe; Guenet, Bertrand; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Hinsinger, Philippe; Janssens, Ivan A.; Peñuelas, Josep; Piao, Shilong; Poulter, Benjamin; Violette, Aurélie; Yang, Xiaojuan; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui

2017-07-01

Most of the Earth System Models (ESMs) project increases in net primary productivity (NPP) and terrestrial carbon (C) storage during the 21st century. Despite empirical evidence that limited availability of phosphorus (P) may limit the response of NPP to increasing atmospheric CO2, none of the ESMs used in the previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment accounted for P limitation. We diagnosed from ESM simulations the amount of P need to support increases in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems using two approaches: the demand derived from (1) changes in C stocks and (2) changes in NPP. The C stock-based additional P demand was estimated to range between -31 and 193 Tg P and between -89 and 262 Tg P for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively, with negative values indicating a P surplus. The NPP-based demand, which takes ecosystem P recycling into account, results in a significantly higher P demand of 648-1606 Tg P for RCP2.6 and 924-2110 Tg P for RCP8.5. We found that the P demand is sensitive to the turnover of P in decomposing plant material, explaining the large differences between the NPP-based demand and C stock-based demand. The discrepancy between diagnosed P demand and actual P availability (potential P deficit) depends mainly on the assumptions about availability of the different soil P forms. Overall, future P limitation strongly depends on both soil P availability and P recycling on ecosystem scale.

Diagnosing phosphorus limitations in natural terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle models.

PubMed

Sun, Yan; Peng, Shushi; Goll, Daniel S; Ciais, Philippe; Guenet, Bertrand; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Hinsinger, Philippe; Janssens, Ivan A; Peñuelas, Josep; Piao, Shilong; Poulter, Benjamin; Violette, Aurélie; Yang, Xiaojuan; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui

2017-07-01

Most of the Earth System Models (ESMs) project increases in net primary productivity (NPP) and terrestrial carbon (C) storage during the 21st century. Despite empirical evidence that limited availability of phosphorus (P) may limit the response of NPP to increasing atmospheric CO 2 , none of the ESMs used in the previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment accounted for P limitation. We diagnosed from ESM simulations the amount of P need to support increases in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems using two approaches: the demand derived from (1) changes in C stocks and (2) changes in NPP. The C stock-based additional P demand was estimated to range between -31 and 193 Tg P and between -89 and 262 Tg P for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively, with negative values indicating a P surplus. The NPP-based demand, which takes ecosystem P recycling into account, results in a significantly higher P demand of 648-1606 Tg P for RCP2.6 and 924-2110 Tg P for RCP8.5. We found that the P demand is sensitive to the turnover of P in decomposing plant material, explaining the large differences between the NPP-based demand and C stock-based demand. The discrepancy between diagnosed P demand and actual P availability (potential P deficit) depends mainly on the assumptions about availability of the different soil P forms. Overall, future P limitation strongly depends on both soil P availability and P recycling on ecosystem scale.

Assessment of the water and energy budget simulation of three land surface models: CLM4.5, CoLM2014, and CoLM2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, C.; Lu, H.; Wen, X.

2015-12-01

Land surface model (LSM), which simulates energy, water and momentum exchanges between land and atmosphere, is an important component of Earth System Models (ESM). As shown in CMIP5, different ESMs usually use different LSMs and represent various land surface status. In order to select a land surface model which could be embedded into the ESM developed in Tsinghua University, we firstly evaluate the performance of three LSMs: Community Land Model (CLM4.5) and two different versions of Common Land Model (CoLM2005 and CoLM2014). All of three models were driven by CRUNCEP data and simulation results from 1980 to 2010 were used in this study. Diagnostic data provided by NCAR, global latent and sensible heat flux map estimated by Jung, net radiation from SRB, and in situ observation collected from FluxNet were used as reference data. Two variables, surface runoff and snow depth, were used for evaluating the model performance in water budget simulation, while three variables including net radiation, sensible heat, and latent heat were used for assessing energy budget simulation. For 30 years averaged runoff, global average value of Colm2014 is 0.44mm/day and close to the diagnostic value of 0.75 mm/day, while that of Colm2005 is 0.44mm/day and that of CLM is 0.20mm/day. For snow depth simulation, three models all have overestimation in the Northern Hemisphere and underestimation in the Southern Hemisphere compare to diagnostic data. For 30 years energy budget simulation, at global scale, CoLM2005 performs best in latent heat estimation, CoLM2014 performs best in sensible heat simulation, and CoLM2005 and CoLM2014 make similar performance in net radiation estimation but is still better than CLM. At regional and local scale, comparing to the four years average of flux tower observation, RMSE of CoLM2005 is the smallest for latent heat (9.717 W/m2) , and for sensible heat simulation, RMSE of CoLM2005 (13.048 W/m2) is slightly greater than CLM(10.767 W/m2) but still better than CoLM2014(30.085 W/m2). Our analysis shows that both CoLM 2005 and CoLM 2014 are able to reproduce comparable land surface water and energy fluxes. It implies that the ESM developed in Tsinghua University may use CoLM, a LSM developed and maintained in China, as the land surface component. .

Overview of the Acoustic Testing of the European Service Module Structural Test Article (E-STA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hughes, William; Fogt, Vince; Le Plenier, Cyprien; Duval, Francois; Durand, Jean-Francois; Staab, Lucas D.; Hozman, Aron; Mcnelis, Anne; Bittinger, Samantha; Thirkettle, Anthony;

Overview of the Acoustic Testing of the European Service Module Structural Test Article (E-STA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hughes, William; Le Plenier, Cyprien; Duval, Francois; Staab, Lucas; Hozman, Aron; Thirkettle, Anthony; Fogt, Vincent; Durand, Jean-Francois; McNelis, Anne; Bittinger, Samantha;

Characteristics of Quasi-Biennial Oscillation simulation in the Meteorological Research Institute earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshida, K.; Naoe, H.

2016-12-01

Whether climate models drive Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) appropriately is important to assess QBO impact on climate change such as global warming and solar related variation. However, there were few models generating QBO in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This study focuses on dynamical structure of the QBO and its sensitivity to background wind pattern and model configuration. We present preliminary results of experiments designed by "Towards Improving the QBO in Global Climate Models (QBOi)", which is derived from the Stratosphere-troposphere processes and their role in climate (SPARC), in the Meteorological Research Institute earth system model, MRI-ESM2. The simulations were performed in present-day climate condition, repeated annual cycle condition with various CO2 level and sea surface temperatures, and QBO hindcast. In the present climate simulation, zonal wind in the equatorial stratosphere generally exhibits realistic behavior of the QBO. Equatorial zonal wind variability associated with QBO is overestimated in upper stratosphere and underestimated in lower stratosphere. In the MRI-ESM2, the QBO behavior is mainly driven by gravity wave drag parametrization (GWDP) introduced in Hines (1997). Comparing to reanalyses, shortage of resolved wave forcing is found especially in equatorial lower stratosphere. These discrepancies can be attributed to difference in wave forcing, background wind pattern and model configuration. We intend to show results of additional sensitivity experiments to examine how model configuration and background wind pattern affect resolved wave source, wave propagation characteristics, and QBO behavior.

Availability Estimate of a Conceptual ESM System.

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-06-01

affect mission operation.t A functional block level failure modes and effects analysis ( FMEA ) performed on the filter resulted in an assessed failure rate...is based on an FMEA of failures that disable the function (see Appendix A). A further 29 examination of the filter piece-parts reveals that the driver...Digital-to-analog converter DC Direct current DF Direction finding ESM Electronic Support Measures FMEA Failure modes and effects analysis FMPO

Effects of snow grain shape on climate simulations: sensitivity tests with the Norwegian Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Räisänen, Petri; Makkonen, Risto; Kirkevåg, Alf; Debernard, Jens B.

2017-12-01

Snow consists of non-spherical grains of various shapes and sizes. Still, in radiative transfer calculations, snow grains are often treated as spherical. This also applies to the computation of snow albedo in the Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR) model and in the Los Alamos sea ice model, version 4 (CICE4), both of which are employed in the Community Earth System Model and in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). In this study, we evaluate the effect of snow grain shape on climate simulated by NorESM in a slab ocean configuration of the model. An experiment with spherical snow grains (SPH) is compared with another (NONSPH) in which the snow shortwave single-scattering properties are based on a combination of three non-spherical snow grain shapes optimized using measurements of angular scattering by blowing snow. The key difference between these treatments is that the asymmetry parameter is smaller in the non-spherical case (0.77-0.78 in the visible region) than in the spherical case ( ≈ 0.89). Therefore, for the same effective snow grain size (or equivalently, the same specific projected area), the snow broadband albedo is higher when assuming non-spherical rather than spherical snow grains, typically by 0.02-0.03. Considering the spherical case as the baseline, this results in an instantaneous negative change in net shortwave radiation with a global-mean top-of-the-model value of ca. -0.22 W m-2. Although this global-mean radiative effect is rather modest, the impacts on the climate simulated by NorESM are substantial. The global annual-mean 2 m air temperature in NONSPH is 1.17 K lower than in SPH, with substantially larger differences at high latitudes. The climatic response is amplified by strong snow and sea ice feedbacks. It is further demonstrated that the effect of snow grain shape could be largely offset by adjusting the snow grain size. When assuming non-spherical snow grains with the parameterized grain size increased by ca. 70 %, the climatic differences to the SPH experiment become very small. Finally, the impact of assumed snow grain shape on the radiative effects of absorbing aerosols in snow is discussed.

Evaluating climate change impacts on streamflow variability based on a multisite multivariate GCM downscaling method in the Jing River of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhi; Jin, Jiming

2017-11-01

Projected hydrological variability is important for future resource and hazard management of water supplies because changes in hydrological variability can cause more disasters than changes in the mean state. However, climate change scenarios downscaled from Earth System Models (ESMs) at single sites cannot meet the requirements of distributed hydrologic models for simulating hydrological variability. This study developed multisite multivariate climate change scenarios via three steps: (i) spatial downscaling of ESMs using a transfer function method, (ii) temporal downscaling of ESMs using a single-site weather generator, and (iii) reconstruction of spatiotemporal correlations using a distribution-free shuffle procedure. Multisite precipitation and temperature change scenarios for 2011-2040 were generated from five ESMs under four representative concentration pathways to project changes in streamflow variability using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the Jing River, China. The correlation reconstruction method performed realistically for intersite and intervariable correlation reproduction and hydrological modeling. The SWAT model was found to be well calibrated with monthly streamflow with a model efficiency coefficient of 0.78. It was projected that the annual mean precipitation would not change, while the mean maximum and minimum temperatures would increase significantly by 1.6 ± 0.3 and 1.3 ± 0.2 °C; the variance ratios of 2011-2040 to 1961-2005 were 1.15 ± 0.13 for precipitation, 1.15 ± 0.14 for mean maximum temperature, and 1.04 ± 0.10 for mean minimum temperature. A warmer climate was predicted for the flood season, while the dry season was projected to become wetter and warmer; the findings indicated that the intra-annual and interannual variations in the future climate would be greater than in the current climate. The total annual streamflow was found to change insignificantly but its variance ratios of 2011-2040 to 1961-2005 increased by 1.25 ± 0.55. Streamflow variability was predicted to become greater over most months on the seasonal scale because of the increased monthly maximum streamflow and decreased monthly minimum streamflow. The increase in streamflow variability was attributed mainly to larger positive contributions from increased precipitation variances rather than negative contributions from increased mean temperatures.

2016 International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Workshop Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, Forrest M.; Koven, Charles D.; Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Lawrence, David M.; Riley, William J.; Randerson, James T.; Ahlstrom, Anders; Abramowitz, Gabriel; Baldocchi, Dennis D.; Best, Martin J.;

Simulated climate effects of desert irrigation geoengineering.

PubMed

Cheng, Wei; Moore, John C; Cao, Long; Ji, Duoying; Zhao, Liyun

2017-04-18

Geoengineering, the deliberate large-scale manipulation of earth's energy balance to counteract global warming, is an attractive proposition for sparsely populated deserts. We use the BNU and UVic Earth system models to simulate the effects of irrigating deserts under the RCP8.5 scenario. Previous studies focused on increasing desert albedo to reduce global warming; in contrast we examine how extending afforestation and ecological projects, that successfully improve regional environments, fair for geoengineering purposes. As expected desert irrigation allows vegetation to grow, with bare soil or grass gradually becoming shrub or tree covered, with increases in terrestrial carbon storage of 90.3 Pg C (UVic-ESCM) - 143.9 Pg C (BNU-ESM). Irrigating global deserts makes the land surface temperature decrease by 0.48 °C and land precipitation increase by 100 mm yr -1 . In the irrigated areas, BNU-ESM simulates significant cooling of up to 4.2 °C owing to the increases in low cloud and latent heat which counteract the warming effect due to decreased surface albedo. Large volumes of water would be required to maintain global desert irrigation, equivalent 10 mm/year of global sea level (BNU-ESM) compensate for evapotranspiration losses. Differences in climate responses between the deserts prompt research into tailored albedo-irrigation schemes.

Simulated climate effects of desert irrigation geoengineering

PubMed Central

Cheng, Wei; Moore, John C.; Cao, Long; Ji, Duoying; Zhao, Liyun

2017-01-01

Geoengineering, the deliberate large-scale manipulation of earth’s energy balance to counteract global warming, is an attractive proposition for sparsely populated deserts. We use the BNU and UVic Earth system models to simulate the effects of irrigating deserts under the RCP8.5 scenario. Previous studies focused on increasing desert albedo to reduce global warming; in contrast we examine how extending afforestation and ecological projects, that successfully improve regional environments, fair for geoengineering purposes. As expected desert irrigation allows vegetation to grow, with bare soil or grass gradually becoming shrub or tree covered, with increases in terrestrial carbon storage of 90.3 Pg C (UVic-ESCM) – 143.9 Pg C (BNU-ESM). Irrigating global deserts makes the land surface temperature decrease by 0.48 °C and land precipitation increase by 100 mm yr−1. In the irrigated areas, BNU-ESM simulates significant cooling of up to 4.2 °C owing to the increases in low cloud and latent heat which counteract the warming effect due to decreased surface albedo. Large volumes of water would be required to maintain global desert irrigation, equivalent 10 mm/year of global sea level (BNU-ESM) compensate for evapotranspiration losses. Differences in climate responses between the deserts prompt research into tailored albedo-irrigation schemes. PMID:28418005

Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunne, John P.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; John, Jasmin G.

2013-06-01

A fundamental aspect of greenhouse-gas-induced warming is a global-scale increase in absolute humidity. Under continued warming, this response has been shown to pose increasingly severe limitations on human activity in tropical and mid-latitudes during peak months of heat stress. One heat-stress metric with broad occupational health applications is wet-bulb globe temperature. We combine wet-bulb globe temperatures from global climate historical reanalysis and Earth System Model (ESM2M) projections with industrial and military guidelines for an acclimated individual's occupational capacity to safely perform sustained labour under environmental heat stress (labour capacity)--here defined as a global population-weighted metric temporally fixed at the 2010 distribution. We estimate that environmental heat stress has reduced labour capacity to 90% in peak months over the past few decades. ESM2M projects labour capacity reduction to 80% in peak months by 2050. Under the highest scenario considered (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), ESM2M projects labour capacity reduction to less than 40% by 2200 in peak months, with most tropical and mid-latitudes experiencing extreme climatological heat stress. Uncertainties and caveats associated with these projections include climate sensitivity, climate warming patterns, CO2 emissions, future population distributions, and technological and societal change.

Insights into a divergent phenazine biosynthetic pathway governed by a plasmid-born esmeraldin gene cluster.

PubMed

Rui, Zhe; Ye, Min; Wang, Shuoguo; Fujikawa, Kaori; Akerele, Bankole; Aung, May; Floss, Heinz G; Zhang, Wenjun; Yu, Tin-Wein

2012-09-21

Phenazine-type metabolites arise from either phenazine-1-carboxylic acid (PCA) or phenazine-1,6-dicarboxylic acid (PDC). Although the biosynthesis of PCA has been studied extensively, PDC assembly remains unclear. Esmeraldins and saphenamycin, the PDC originated products, are antimicrobial and antitumor metabolites isolated from Streptomyces antibioticus Tü 2706. Herein, the esmeraldin biosynthetic gene cluster was identified on a dispensable giant plasmid. Twenty-four putative esm genes were characterized by bioinformatics, mutagenesis, genetic complementation, and functional protein expressions. Unlike enzymes involved in PCA biosynthesis, EsmA1 and EsmA2 together decisively promoted the PDC yield. The resulting PDC underwent a series of conversions to give 6-acetylphenazine-1-carboxylic acid, saphenic acid, and saphenamycin through a unique one-carbon extension by EsmB1-B5, a keto reduction by EsmC, and an esterification by EsmD1-D3, the atypical polyketide sythases, respectively. Two transcriptional regulators, EsmT1 and EsmT2, are required for esmeraldin production. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Connecting Atlantic temperature variability and biological cycling in two earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnanadesikan, Anand; Dunne, John P.; Msadek, Rym

2014-05-01

Connections between the interdecadal variability in North Atlantic temperatures and biological cycling have been widely hypothesized. However, it is unclear whether such connections are due to small changes in basin-averaged temperatures indicated by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Index, or whether both biological cycling and the AMO index are causally linked to changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We examine interdecadal variability in the annual and month-by-month diatom biomass in two Earth System Models with the same formulations of atmospheric, land, sea ice and ocean biogeochemical dynamics but different formulations of ocean physics and thus different AMOC structures and variability. In the isopycnal-layered ESM2G, strong interdecadal changes in surface salinity associated with changes in AMOC produce spatially heterogeneous variability in convection, nutrient supply and thus diatom biomass. These changes also produce changes in ice cover, shortwave absorption and temperature and hence the AMO Index. Off West Greenland, these changes are consistent with observed changes in fisheries and support climate as a causal driver. In the level-coordinate ESM2M, nutrient supply is much higher and interdecadal changes in diatom biomass are much smaller in amplitude and not strongly linked to the AMO index.

Soybean Physiology Calibration in the Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drewniak, B. A.; Bilionis, I.; Constantinescu, E. M.

2014-12-01

With the large influence of agricultural land use on biophysical and biogeochemical cycles, integrating cultivation into Earth System Models (ESMs) is increasingly important. The Community Land Model (CLM) was augmented with a CLM-Crop extension that simulates the development of three crop types: maize, soybean, and spring wheat. The CLM-Crop model is a complex system that relies on a suite of parametric inputs that govern plant growth under a given atmospheric forcing and available resources. However, the strong nonlinearity of ESMs makes parameter fitting a difficult task. In this study, our goal is to calibrate ten of the CLM-Crop parameters for one crop type, soybean, in order to improve model projection of plant development and carbon fluxes. We used measurements of gross primary productivity, net ecosystem exchange, and plant biomass from AmeriFlux sites to choose parameter values that optimize crop productivity in the model. Calibration is performed in a Bayesian framework by developing a scalable and adaptive scheme based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). Our scheme can perform model calibration using very few evaluations and, by exploiting parallelism, at a fraction of the time required by plain vanilla Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We present the results from a twin experiment (self-validation) and calibration results and validation using real observations from an AmeriFlux tower site in the Midwestern United States, for the soybean crop type. The improved model will help researchers understand how climate affects crop production and resulting carbon fluxes, and additionally, how cultivation impacts climate.

"To sleep, perchance to tweet": in-bed electronic social media use and its associations with insomnia, daytime sleepiness, mood, and sleep duration in adults.

PubMed

Bhat, Sushanth; Pinto-Zipp, Genevieve; Upadhyay, Hinesh; Polos, Peter G

2018-04-01

The use of mobile device-based electronic social media (ESM) in bed is rapidly becoming commonplace, with potentially adverse impacts on sleep and daytime functioning. The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which in-bed ESM use is associated with insomnia, daytime sleepiness, mood, and sleep duration in adults. This was a cross-sectional observational study conducted among 855 hospital employees and university students (mean age, 43.6years; 85% female) via an online questionnaire. Nearly 70% of participants indulged in in-bed ESM use, with nearly 15% spending an hour or more a night doing so. The degree of in-bed ESM use did not vary by gender, but higher levels of in-bed ESM use were seen in younger and middle-aged than elderly participants. Compared with participants with no in-bed ESM use and controlling for age, gender, and ethnicity, participants with high in-bed ESM use were more likely to have insomnia, anxiety, and short sleep duration on weeknights, but not depression or daytime sleepiness; low in-bed ESM use only increased the likelihood of short sleep duration on weeknights. In-bed ESM use by a bed partner did not have an adverse association with sleep or mood. In-bed ESM use is associated with sleep and mood dysfunction in adults. These findings are of relevance to clinicians, therapists, and the public at large, as they suggest that limitation of in-bed ESM use is a potential interventional strategy in the overall management of sleep hygiene and mental health. Copyright © 2017 National Sleep Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reliability Impacts in Life Support Architecture and Technology Selection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lange, Kevin E.; Anderson, Molly S.

2011-01-01

Equivalent System Mass (ESM) and reliability estimates were performed for different life support architectures based primarily on International Space Station (ISS) technologies. The analysis was applied to a hypothetical 1-year deep-space mission. High-level fault trees were initially developed relating loss of life support functionality to the Loss of Crew (LOC) top event. System reliability was then expressed as the complement (nonoccurrence) this event and was increased through the addition of redundancy and spares, which added to the ESM. The reliability analysis assumed constant failure rates and used current projected values of the Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) from an ISS database where available. Results were obtained showing the dependence of ESM on system reliability for each architecture. Although the analysis employed numerous simplifications and many of the input parameters are considered to have high uncertainty, the results strongly suggest that achieving necessary reliabilities for deep-space missions will add substantially to the life support system mass. As a point of reference, the reliability for a single-string architecture using the most regenerative combination of ISS technologies without unscheduled replacement spares was estimated to be less than 1%. The results also demonstrate how adding technologies in a serial manner to increase system closure forces the reliability of other life support technologies to increase in order to meet the system reliability requirement. This increase in reliability results in increased mass for multiple technologies through the need for additional spares. Alternative parallel architecture approaches and approaches with the potential to do more with less are discussed. The tall poles in life support ESM are also reexamined in light of estimated reliability impacts.

Applying Hillslope Hydrology to Bridge between Ecosystem and Grid-Scale Processes within an Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subin, Z. M.; Sulman, B. N.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.

2013-12-01

Soil moisture is a crucial control on surface energy fluxes, vegetation properties, and soil carbon cycling. Its interactions with ecosystem processes are highly nonlinear across a large range, as both drought stress and anoxia can impede vegetation and microbial growth. Earth System Models (ESMs) generally only represent an average soil-moisture state in grid cells at scales of 50-200 km, and as a result are not able to adequately represent the effects of subgrid heterogeneity in soil moisture, especially in regions with large wetland areas. We addressed this deficiency by developing the first ESM-coupled subgrid hillslope-hydrological model, TiHy (Tiled-hillslope Hydrology), embedded within the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) land model. In each grid cell, one or more representative hillslope geometries are discretized into land model tiles along an upland-to-lowland gradient. These geometries represent ~1 km hillslope-scale hydrological features and allow for flexible representation of hillslope profile and plan shapes, in addition to variation of subsurface properties among or within hillslopes. Each tile (which may represent ~100 m along the hillslope) has its own surface fluxes, vegetation state, and vertically-resolved state variables for soil physics and biogeochemistry. Resolution of water state in deep layers (~200 m) down to bedrock allows for physical integration of groundwater transport with unsaturated overlying dynamics. Multiple tiles can also co-exist at the same vertical position along the hillslope, allowing the simulation of ecosystem heterogeneity due to disturbance. The hydrological model is coupled to the vertically-resolved Carbon, Organisms, Respiration, and Protection in the Soil Environment (CORPSE) model, which captures non-linearity resulting from interactions between vertically-heterogeneous soil carbon and water profiles. We present comparisons of simulated water table depth to observations. We examine sensitivities to alternative parameterizations of hillslope geometry, macroporosity, and surface runoff / inundation, and to the choice of global topographic dataset and groundwater hydraulic conductivity distribution. Simulated groundwater dynamics among hillslopes tend to cluster into three regimes of wet and well-drained, wet but poorly-drained, and dry. In the base model configuration, near-surface gridcell-mean water tables exist in an excessively large area compared to observations, including large areas of the Eastern U.S. and Northern Europe. However, in better-drained areas, the decrease in water table depth along the hillslope gradient allows for realistic increases in ecosystem water availability and soil carbon downslope. The inclusion of subgrid hydrology can increase the equilibrium 0-2 m global soil carbon stock by a large factor, due to the nonlinear effect of anoxia. We conclude that this innovative modeling framework allows for the inclusion of hillslope-scale processes and the potential for wetland dynamics in an ESM without need for a high-resolution 3-dimensional groundwater model. Future work will include investigating the potential for future changes in land carbon fluxes caused by the effects of changing hydrological regime, particularly in peatland-rich areas poorly treated by current ESMs.

Improved Seasonal Prediction of European Summer Temperatures With New Five-Layer Soil-Hydrology Scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunzel, Felix; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Fröhlich, Kristina; Hagemann, Stefan; Pohlmann, Holger; Stacke, Tobias; Baehr, Johanna

2018-01-01

We evaluate the impact of a new five-layer soil-hydrology scheme on seasonal hindcast skill of 2 m temperatures over Europe obtained with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Assimilation experiments from 1981 to 2010 and 10-member seasonal hindcasts initialized on 1 May each year are performed with MPI-ESM in two soil configurations, one using a bucket scheme and one a new five-layer soil-hydrology scheme. We find the seasonal hindcast skill for European summer temperatures to improve with the five-layer scheme compared to the bucket scheme and investigate possible causes for these improvements. First, improved indirect soil moisture assimilation allows for enhanced soil moisture-temperature feedbacks in the hindcasts. Additionally, this leads to improved prediction of anomalies in the 500 hPa geopotential height surface, reflecting more realistic atmospheric circulation patterns over Europe.

Intercomparison of terrestrial carbon fluxes and carbon use efficiency simulated by CMIP5 Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Dongmin; Lee, Myong-In; Jeong, Su-Jong; Im, Jungho; Cha, Dong Hyun; Lee, Sanggyun

2017-12-01

This study compares historical simulations of the terrestrial carbon cycle produced by 10 Earth System Models (ESMs) that participated in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Using MODIS satellite estimates, this study validates the simulation of gross primary production (GPP), net primary production (NPP), and carbon use efficiency (CUE), which depend on plant function types (PFTs). The models show noticeable deficiencies compared to the MODIS data in the simulation of the spatial patterns of GPP and NPP and large differences among the simulations, although the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean provides a realistic global mean value and spatial distributions. The larger model spreads in GPP and NPP compared to those of surface temperature and precipitation suggest that the differences among simulations in terms of the terrestrial carbon cycle are largely due to uncertainties in the parameterization of terrestrial carbon fluxes by vegetation. The models also exhibit large spatial differences in their simulated CUE values and at locations where the dominant PFT changes, primarily due to differences in the parameterizations. While the MME-simulated CUE values show a strong dependence on surface temperatures, the observed CUE values from MODIS show greater complexity, as well as non-linear sensitivity. This leads to the overall underestimation of CUE using most of the PFTs incorporated into current ESMs. The results of this comparison suggest that more careful and extensive validation is needed to improve the terrestrial carbon cycle in terms of ecosystem-level processes.

Orion European Service Module (ESM) Development, Integration and Qualification Status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berthe, Philippe; Over, Ann P.; Picardo, Michelle; Byers, Anthony W.

2017-01-01

ESA and the European Industry are supplying the European Service Module for Orion. An overview of the system and subsystem configuration of the Orion European Service Module (ESM) as designed and built for the EM-1 mission is provided as well as an outline of its development, assembly, integration and verification process performed by ESA and NASA in coordination with their respective Industrial prime contractors, Airbus Defence and Space and Lockheed Martin.

Modeling sediment yield in small catchments at event scale: Model comparison, development and evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Z.; Leung, L. R.; Li, H. Y.; Tesfa, T. K.

2017-12-01

Sediment yield (SY) has significant impacts on river biogeochemistry and aquatic ecosystems but it is rarely represented in Earth System Models (ESMs). Existing SY models focus on estimating SY from large river basins or individual catchments so it is not clear how well they simulate SY in ESMs at larger spatial scales and globally. In this study, we compare the strengths and weaknesses of eight well-known SY models in simulating annual mean SY at about 400 small catchments ranging in size from 0.22 to 200 km2 in the US, Canada and Puerto Rico. In addition, we also investigate the performance of these models in simulating event-scale SY at six catchments in the US using high-quality hydrological inputs. The model comparison shows that none of the models can reproduce the SY at large spatial scales but the Morgan model performs the better than others despite its simplicity. In all model simulations, large underestimates occur in catchments with very high SY. A possible pathway to reduce the discrepancies is to incorporate sediment detachment by landsliding, which is currently not included in the models being evaluated. We propose a new SY model that is based on the Morgan model but including a landsliding soil detachment scheme that is being developed. Along with the results of the model comparison and evaluation, preliminary findings from the revised Morgan model will be presented.

Characterizing Feedback Control Mechanisms in Nonlinear Microbial Models of Soil Organic Matter Decomposition by Stability Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgiou, K.; Tang, J.; Riley, W. J.; Torn, M. S.

2014-12-01

Soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition is regulated by biotic and abiotic processes. Feedback interactions between such processes may act to dampen oscillatory responses to perturbations from equilibrium. Indeed, although biological oscillations have been observed in small-scale laboratory incubations, the overlying behavior at the plot-scale exhibits a relatively stable response to disturbances in input rates and temperature. Recent studies have demonstrated the ability of microbial models to capture nonlinear feedbacks in SOM decomposition that linear Century-type models are unable to reproduce, such as soil priming in response to increased carbon input. However, these microbial models often exhibit strong oscillatory behavior that is deemed unrealistic. The inherently nonlinear dynamics of SOM decomposition have important implications for global climate-carbon and carbon-concentration feedbacks. It is therefore imperative to represent these dynamics in Earth System Models (ESMs) by introducing sub-models that accurately represent microbial and abiotic processes. In the present study we explore, both analytically and numerically, four microbe-enabled model structures of varying levels of complexity. The most complex model combines microbial physiology, a non-linear mineral sorption isotherm, and enzyme dynamics. Based on detailed stability analysis of the nonlinear dynamics, we calculate the system modes as functions of model parameters. This dependence provides insight into the source of state oscillations. We find that feedback mechanisms that emerge from careful representation of enzyme and mineral interactions, with parameter values in a prescribed range, are critical for both maintaining system stability and capturing realistic responses to disturbances. Corroborating and expanding upon the results of recent studies, we explain the emergence of oscillatory responses and discuss the appropriate microbe-enabled model structure for inclusion in ESMs.

How much would five trillion tonnes of carbon warm the climate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokarska, Katarzyna Kasia; Gillett, Nathan P.; Weaver, Andrew J.; Arora, Vivek K.

2016-04-01

While estimates of fossil fuel reserves and resources are very uncertain, and the amount which could ultimately be burnt under a business as usual scenario would depend on prevailing economic and technological conditions, an amount of five trillion tonnes of carbon (5 EgC), corresponding to the lower end of the range of estimates of the total fossil fuel resource, is often cited as an estimate of total cumulative emissions in the absence of mitigation actions. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report indicates that an approximately linear relationship between warming and cumulative carbon emissions holds only up to around 2 EgC emissions. It is typically assumed that at higher cumulative emissions the warming would tend to be less than that predicted by such a linear relationship, with the radiative saturation effect dominating the effects of positive carbon-climate feedbacks at high emissions, as predicted by simple carbon-climate models. We analyze simulations from four state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and seven Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), driven by the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 Extension scenario (RCP 8.5 Ext), which represents a very high emission scenario of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in absence of climate mitigation policies. Our results demonstrate that while terrestrial and ocean carbon storage varies between the models, the CO2-induced warming continues to increase approximately linearly with cumulative carbon emissions even for higher levels of cumulative emissions, in all four ESMs. Five of the seven EMICs considered simulate a similarly linear response, while two exhibit less warming at higher cumulative emissions for reasons we discuss. The ESMs simulate global mean warming of 6.6-11.0°C, mean Arctic warming of 15.3-19.7°C, and mean regional precipitation increases and decreases by more than a factor of four, in response to 5EgC, with smaller forcing contributions from other greenhouse gases. These results indicate that the unregulated exploitation of the fossil fuel resource would ultimately result in considerably more profound climate changes than previously suggested.

Reconstruction of the Greenland ice sheet dynamics in a fully coupled Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybak, Oleg; Volodin, Evgeny; Huybrechts, Philippe

2016-04-01

Earth system models (ESMs) are undoubtedly effective tools for studying climate dynamics. Incorporation of evolving ice sheets to ESMs is a challenging task because response times of the climate system and of ice sheets differ by several orders of magnitude. Besides, AO GCMs operate on spatial and temporal resolutions substantially differing from those of ice sheet models (ICMs). Therefore elaboration of an effective coupling methodology of an AO GCM and an ICM is the key problem of an ESM construction and utilization. Several downscaling strategies of varying complexity exist now of data exchange between modeled climate system and ice sheets. Application of a particular strategy depends on the research objectives. In our view, the optimum approach for model studying of significant environmental changes (e.g. glacial/interglacial transitions) when ice sheets undergo substantial evolution of geometry and volume would be an asynchronous coupling. The latter allows simulation in the interactive way of growth and decay of ice sheets in the changing climatic conditions. In the focus of the presentation, is the overview of coupling aspects of an AO GCM INMCM32 elaborated in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (Moscow, Russia) to the Greenland ice sheet model (GrISM, Vrije Uninersiteit Brussel, Belgium). To provide interactive coupling of INMCM32 (spatial resolution 5°×4°, 21 vertical layers and temporal resolution 6 min. in the atmospheric block) and GrISM (spatial resolution 20×20 km, 51 vertical layers and 1 yr temporal resolution), we employ a special energy- and water balance model (EWBM-G), which serves as a buffer providing effective data exchange between INMCM32 and GrISM. EWBM-G operates in a rectangle domain including Greenland. Transfer of daily meanings of simulated climatic variables (air surface temperature and specific humidity) is provided on the lateral boundarias of the domain and inside the domain (sea level air pressure, wind speed and total cloudiness) after applying spline interpolation. EWBM-G calculates annual surface mass balance, SMB, (further transferred as an external forcing to the GrISM) and fresh water flux (transferred to the oceanic block of the INMCM32). After receiving SMB, GrIS is integrated and returns update surface topography back to the INMCM32. The aim of the current research is to establish equilibration time of climate and GrIS in the transient coupled run and to elaborate optimum methodology for performing numerical experiments simulating glacial/interglacial transitions.

Consequences of ions and pH on the supramolecular organization of sphingomyelin and sphingomyelin/cholesterol bilayers.

PubMed

Chemin, Caroline; Bourgaux, Claudie; Péan, Jean-Manuel; Pabst, Georg; Wüthrich, Patrick; Couvreur, Patrick; Ollivon, Michel

2008-06-01

For drug delivery purpose the anticancer drug S12363 was loaded into ESM/Chol-liposomes using either a pH or an ammonium gradient. Association between the drug and the liposome depends markedly on the liposome membrane structure. Thus, ESM and ESM/Chol bilayer organization had been characterized by coupled DSC and XRDT as a function of both cholesterol concentration and aqueous medium composition. ESM bilayers exhibited a ripple lamellar gel phase P(beta') below the melting temperature and adopted a L(beta)-like gel phase upon Chol insertion. Supramolecular organization of ESM and ESM/Chol bilayers was not modified by citrate buffer or ammonium sulfate solution whatever the pH (3< or = pH < or =7). Nevertheless, in ESM bilayer, ammonium sulfate salt induced a peculiar organization of head groups, leading to irregular d-spacing and weakly correlated bilayers. Moreover, in the presence of salts, a weakening of van der Waals attraction forces was seen and led to a swelling of the water layer.

The conceptual design of a hybrid life support system based on the evaluation and comparison of terrestrial testbeds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czupalla, M.; Horneck, G.; Blome, H. J.

This report summarizes a trade study of different options of a bioregenerative Life Support System (LSS) and a subsequent conceptual design of a hybrid LSS. The evaluation was based mainly on the terrestrial testbed projects MELISSA (ESA) and BIOS (Russia). In addition, some methods suggested by the Advanced Life Support Project (NASA) were considered. Computer models, including mass flows were established for each of the systems with the goal of closing system loops to the extent possible. In order to cope with the differences in the supported crew size and provided nutrition, all systems were scaled for supporting a crew of six for a 780 day Mars mission (180 days transport to Mars; 600 days surface period) as given in the NASA Design Reference Mission Scenario [Hoffman, S.J., Kaplan, D.L. Human exploration of Mars: the Reference Mission of the NASA Mars Exploratory Study, 1997]. All models were scaled to provide the same daily allowances, as of calories, to the crew. Equivalent System Mass (ESM) analysis was used to compare the investigated system models against each other. Following the comparison of the terrestrial systems, the system specific subsystem options for Food Supply, Solid Waste Processing, Water Management and Atmosphere Revitalization were evaluated in a separate trade study. The best subsystem technologies from the trade study were integrated into an overall design solution based on mass flow relationships. The optimized LSS is mainly a bioregenerative system, complemented by a few physico-chemical elements, with a total ESM of 18,088 kg, which is about 4 times higher than that of a pure physico-chemical LSS, as designed in an earlier study.

The conceptual design of a hybrid life support system based on the evaluation and comparison of terrestrial testbeds.

PubMed

Czupalla, M; Horneck, G; Blome, H J

2005-01-01

This report summarizes a trade study of different options of a bioregenerative Life Support System (LSS) and a subsequent conceptual design of a hybrid LSS. The evaluation was based mainly on the terrestrial testbed projects MELISSA (ESA) and BIOS (Russia). In addition, some methods suggested by the Advanced Life Support Project (NASA) were considered. Computer models, including mass flows were established for each of the systems with the goal of closing system loops to the extent possible. In order to cope with the differences in the supported crew size and provided nutrition, all systems were scaled for supporting a crew of six for a 780 day Mars mission (180 days transport to Mars; 600 days surface period) as given in the NASA Design Reference Mission Scenario [Hoffman, S.J., Kaplan, D.L. Human exploration of Mars: the Reference Mission of the NASA Mars Exploratory Study, 1997]. All models were scaled to provide the same daily allowances, as of calories, to the crew. Equivalent System Mass (ESM) analysis was used to compare the investigated system models against each other. Following the comparison of the terrestrial systems, the system specific subsystem options for Food Supply, Solid Waste Processing, Water Management and Atmosphere Revitalization were evaluated in a separate trade study. The best subsystem technologies from the trade study were integrated into an overall design solution based on mass flow relationships. The optimized LSS is mainly a bioregenerative system, complemented by a few physico-chemical elements, with a total ESM of 18,088 kg, which is about 4 times higher than that of a pure physico-chemical LSS, as designed in an earlier study. c2005 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Elementary signaling modes predict the essentiality of signal transduction network components

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Understanding how signals propagate through signaling pathways and networks is a central goal in systems biology. Quantitative dynamic models help to achieve this understanding, but are difficult to construct and validate because of the scarcity of known mechanistic details and kinetic parameters. Structural and qualitative analysis is emerging as a feasible and useful alternative for interpreting signal transduction. Results In this work, we present an integrative computational method for evaluating the essentiality of components in signaling networks. This approach expands an existing signaling network to a richer representation that incorporates the positive or negative nature of interactions and the synergistic behaviors among multiple components. Our method simulates both knockout and constitutive activation of components as node disruptions, and takes into account the possible cascading effects of a node's disruption. We introduce the concept of elementary signaling mode (ESM), as the minimal set of nodes that can perform signal transduction independently. Our method ranks the importance of signaling components by the effects of their perturbation on the ESMs of the network. Validation on several signaling networks describing the immune response of mammals to bacteria, guard cell abscisic acid signaling in plants, and T cell receptor signaling shows that this method can effectively uncover the essentiality of components mediating a signal transduction process and results in strong agreement with the results of Boolean (logical) dynamic models and experimental observations. Conclusions This integrative method is an efficient procedure for exploratory analysis of large signaling and regulatory networks where dynamic modeling or experimental tests are impractical. Its results serve as testable predictions, provide insights into signal transduction and regulatory mechanisms and can guide targeted computational or experimental follow-up studies. The source codes for the algorithms developed in this study can be found at http://www.phys.psu.edu/~ralbert/ESM. PMID:21426566

The Effect of Mission Location on Mission Costs and Equivalent System Mass

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, John W.; Levri, Julie

2002-01-01

It is the goal of developers of advanced life support researcher to develop technology that reduces the cost of life support for future space missions and thereby enables missions that are currently infeasible or too expensive. Because the cost of propulsion dominates the cost of hardware emplacement in space and because the mass of a deliverable object controls its propulsive requirements, equivalent system mass (ESM) is used as a means for accounting for mission costs. ESM is typically calculated by adding to the actual mass the equivalent amount of mass that must be added to a mission due to other characteristics of a piece of hardware such as the item s volume or energy requirements. This approach works well for comparing different pieces of hardware when they go to the same location in space. However, different locations in mission space such low Earth orbit, Mars surface, or full trip to Mars and return to low Earth orbit require vastly different amounts of propulsion. Moving an object from Earth surface to the Martian surface and returning it to Earth will require as much as 100 times the propulsion that is required to move the object to low Earth orbit only. This paper presents the case for including the effect that location can have on cost as a part of ESM and suggests a method for achieving this improvement of ESM.

Massive Sulphide Exploration at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge 26oN: an interdisciplinary geophysical study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gehrmann, R. A. S.; Hölz, S.; Jegen, M. D.; Graber, S.; Szitkar, F.; Petersen, S.; Yeo, I. A.; North, L. J.; Gil, A.; Vardy, M. E.; Haroon, A.; Schroeder, H.; Bialas, J.; Tan, Y. Y.; Attias, E.; Sommer, M.; Minshull, T. A.; Murton, B. J.

2017-12-01

During the summer 2016 two cruises (M127 and JC138) conducted an interdisciplinary survey as part of the EU FP7 project `Blue Mining' in the Trans-Atlantic Geotraverse (TAG) hydrothermal field, at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (26° N), to study the geophysical and geochemical signature of extinct seafloor massive sulphide (eSMS) deposits. The survey comprised AUV-based high-resolution bathymetric mapping, magnetic and self-potential data acquisition, reflection and refraction seismic imaging and three types of controlled source electromagnetic (CSEM) experiments (Geomar, UoS). Additionally seafloor coring, drilling and video imaging (NOC, University of Lisbon, BGS) were realized. Laboratory measurements of physical and chemical properties were taken on and post-cruise from rock samples and sediment cores. Here, we present results from the geophysical data analysis with emphasis on the electromagnetic studies in respect to eSMS detection. Six multi-kilometre-long profiles were acquired with the towed CSEM experiment (UoS) and preliminary results indicate the sensitivity to the conductive eSMS deposits and the resistive background to a depth of about 200 m. The system is also sensitive to the rough topography and interpretation of eSMS deposits requires validation from other methods such as measurements with the MARTEMIS system, a seafloor source-receiver coil (Geomar), which were conducted in two collocated work areas for high-resolution imaging with a depth penetration of up to 50 m. Each geophysical method is sensitive to different SMS characteristics, for example, bathymetric and seismic data are sensitive to the shape and structure of the whole deposit, magnetic data are susceptive to the hydrothermal alteration of magnetic minerals, and self-potential and electromagnetic data respond to the electrically conductive sulphide bodies. Each method has different resolution, penetration depths and challenges with the rough-topographic terrain and navigation. Only implementing them together leads to a more robust identification of the eSMS deposits. We will show results for known and previously unknown deposits, case studies where methods support and complement, or contradict each other, and the overall distribution of eSMS deposits in the TAG hydrothermal field.

MiKlip-PRODEF: Probabilistic Decadal Forecast for Central and Western Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyers, Mark; Haas, Rabea; Ludwig, Patrick; Pinto, Joaquim

2013-04-01

The demand for skilful climate predictions on time-scales of several years to decades has increased in recent years, in particular for economic, societal and political terms. Within the BMBF MiKlip consortium, a decadal prediction system on the global to local scale is currently being developed. The subproject PRODEF is part of the MiKlip-Module C, which aims at the regionalisation of decadal predictability for Central and Western Europe. In PRODEF, a combined statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) and a probabilistic forecast tool are developed and applied to the new Earth system model of the Max-Planck Institute Hamburg (MPI-ESM), which is part of the CMIP5 experiment. Focus is given on the decadal predictability of windstorms, related wind gusts as well as wind energy potentials. SDD combines the benefits of both high resolution dynamical downscaling and purely statistical downscaling of GCM output. Hence, the SDD approach is used to obtain a very large ensemble of highly resolved decadal forecasts. With respect to the focal points of PRODEF, a clustering of temporal evolving atmospheric fields, a circulation weather type (CWT) analysis, and a storm damage indices analysis is applied to the full ensemble of the decadal hindcast experiments of the MPI-ESM in its lower resolution (MPI-ESM-LR). The ensemble consists of up to ten realisations per yearly initialised decadal hindcast experiments for the period 1960-2010 (altogether 287 realisations). Representatives of CWTs / clusters and single storm episodes are dynamical downscaled with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM with a horizontal resolution of 0.22°. For each model grid point, the distributions of the local climate parameters (e.g. surface wind gusts) are determined for different periods (e.g. each decades) by recombining dynamical downscaled episodes weighted with the respective weather type frequencies. The applicability of the SDD approach is illustrated with examples of decadal forecasts of the MPI-ESM. We are able to perform a bias correction of the frequencies of large scale weather types and to quantify the uncertainties of decadal predictability on large and local scale arising from different initial conditions. Further, probability density functions of local parameters like e.g. wind gusts for different periods and decades derived from the SDD approach is compared to observations and reanalysis data. Skill scores are used to quantify the decadal predictability for different leading time periods and to analyse whether the SDD approach shows systematic errors for some regions.

Coupling integrated assessment and earth system models: concepts and an application to land use change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.; Lawrence, P.; Ren, X.

2016-12-01

Collaboration between the integrated assessment modeling (IAM) and earth system modeling (ESM) communities is increasing, driven by a growing interest in research questions that require analysis integrating both social and natural science components. This collaboration often takes the form of integrating their respective models. There are a number of approaches available to implement this integration, ranging from one-way linkages to full two-way coupling, as well as approaches that retain a single modeling framework but improve the representation of processes from the other framework. We discuss the pros and cons of these different approaches and the conditions under which a two-way coupling of IAMs and ESMs would be favored over a one-way linkage. We propose a criterion that is necessary and sufficient to motivate two-way coupling: A human process must have an effect on an earth system process that is large enough to cause a change in the original human process that is substantial compared to other uncertainties in the problem being investigated. We then illustrate a test of this criterion for land use-climate interactions based on work using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and land use scenarios from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), in which we find that the land use effect on regional climate is unlikely to meet the criterion. We then show an example of implementing a one-way linkage of land use and agriculture between an IAM, the integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science (iPETS) model, and CESM that produces fully consistent outcomes between iPETS and the CESM land surface model. We use the linked system to model the influence of climate change on crop yields, agricultural land use, crop prices and food consumption under two alternative future climate scenarios. This application demonstrates the ability to link an IAM to a global land surface and climate model in a computationally efficient manner.

Practical Considerations of Waste Heat Reuse for a Mars Mission Advanced Life Support System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levri, Julie; Finn, Cory; Luna, Bernadette (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Energy conservation is a key issue in design optimization of Advanced Life Support Systems (ALSS) for long-term space missions. By considering designs for conservation at the system level, energy saving opportunities arise that would otherwise go unnoticed. This paper builds on a steady-state investigation of system-level waste heat reuse in an ALSS with a low degree of crop growth for a Mars mission. In past studies, such a system has been defined in terms of technology types, hot and cold stream identification and stream energy content. The maximum steady-state potential for power and cooling savings within the system was computed via the Pinch Method. In this paper, several practical issues are considered for achieving a pragmatic estimate of total system savings in terms of equivalent system mass (ESM), rather than savings solely in terms of power and cooling. In this paper, more realistic ESM savings are computed by considering heat transfer inefficiencies during material transfer. An estimate of the steady-state mass, volume and crewtime requirements associated with heat exchange equipment is made by considering heat exchange equipment material type and configuration, stream flow characteristics and associated energy losses during the heat exchange process. Also, previously estimated power and cooling savings are adjusted to reflect the impact of such energy losses. This paper goes one step further than the traditional Pinch Method of considering waste heat reuse in heat exchangers to include ESM savings that occur with direct reuse of a stream. For example, rather than exchanging heat between crop growth lamp cooling air and air going to a clothes dryer, air used to cool crop lamps might be reused directly for clothes drying purposes. When thermodynamically feasible, such an approach may increase ESM savings by minimizing the mass, volume and crewtime requirements associated with stream routing equipment.

Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity.

PubMed

Swann, Abigail L S; Hoffman, Forrest M; Koven, Charles D; Randerson, James T

2016-09-06

Rising atmospheric CO2 will make Earth warmer, and many studies have inferred that this warming will cause droughts to become more widespread and severe. However, rising atmospheric CO2 also modifies stomatal conductance and plant water use, processes that are often are overlooked in impact analysis. We find that plant physiological responses to CO2 reduce predictions of future drought stress, and that this reduction is captured by using plant-centric rather than atmosphere-centric metrics from Earth system models (ESMs). The atmosphere-centric Palmer Drought Severity Index predicts future increases in drought stress for more than 70% of global land area. This area drops to 37% with the use of precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-E), a measure that represents the water flux available to downstream ecosystems and humans. The two metrics yield consistent estimates of increasing stress in regions where precipitation decreases are more robust (southern North America, northeastern South America, and southern Europe). The metrics produce diverging estimates elsewhere, with P-E predicting decreasing stress across temperate Asia and central Africa. The differing sensitivity of drought metrics to radiative and physiological aspects of increasing CO2 partly explains the divergent estimates of future drought reported in recent studies. Further, use of ESM output in offline models may double-count plant feedbacks on relative humidity and other surface variables, leading to overestimates of future stress. The use of drought metrics that account for the response of plant transpiration to changing CO2, including direct use of P-E and soil moisture from ESMs, is needed to reduce uncertainties in future assessment.

Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity

PubMed Central

Koven, Charles D.; Randerson, James T.

2016-01-01

Rising atmospheric CO2 will make Earth warmer, and many studies have inferred that this warming will cause droughts to become more widespread and severe. However, rising atmospheric CO2 also modifies stomatal conductance and plant water use, processes that are often are overlooked in impact analysis. We find that plant physiological responses to CO2 reduce predictions of future drought stress, and that this reduction is captured by using plant-centric rather than atmosphere-centric metrics from Earth system models (ESMs). The atmosphere-centric Palmer Drought Severity Index predicts future increases in drought stress for more than 70% of global land area. This area drops to 37% with the use of precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-E), a measure that represents the water flux available to downstream ecosystems and humans. The two metrics yield consistent estimates of increasing stress in regions where precipitation decreases are more robust (southern North America, northeastern South America, and southern Europe). The metrics produce diverging estimates elsewhere, with P-E predicting decreasing stress across temperate Asia and central Africa. The differing sensitivity of drought metrics to radiative and physiological aspects of increasing CO2 partly explains the divergent estimates of future drought reported in recent studies. Further, use of ESM output in offline models may double-count plant feedbacks on relative humidity and other surface variables, leading to overestimates of future stress. The use of drought metrics that account for the response of plant transpiration to changing CO2, including direct use of P-E and soil moisture from ESMs, is needed to reduce uncertainties in future assessment. PMID:27573831

Diagnosing phosphorus limitations in natural terrestrial ecosystems in carbon cycle models

DOE PAGES

Sun, Yan; Peng, Shushi; Goll, Daniel S.; ...

2017-04-28

Most of the Earth System Models (ESMs) project increases in net primary productivity (NPP) and terrestrial carbon (C) storage during the 21st century. Despite empirical evidence that limited availability of phosphorus (P) may limit the response of NPP to increasing atmospheric CO 2, none of the ESMs used in the previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment accounted for P limitation. We diagnosed from ESM simulations the amount of P need to support increases in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems using two approaches: the demand derived from changes in C stocks and changes in NPP. The C stock-based additional Pmore » demand was estimated to range between -31 and 193 Tg P and between -89 and 262 Tg P for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively, with negative values indicating a P surplus. The NPP-based demand, which takes ecosystem P recycling into account, results in a significantly higher P demand of 648–1606 Tg P for RCP2.6 and 924–2110 Tg P for RCP8.5. We found that the P demand is sensitive to the turnover of P in decomposing plant material, explaining the large differences between the NPP-based demand and C stock-based demand. The discrepancy between diagnosed P demand and actual P availability (potential P deficit) depends mainly on the assumptions about availability of the different soil P forms. Altogether, future P limitation strongly depends on both soil P availability and P recycling on ecosystem scale.« less

Matrix approach to land carbon cycle modeling: A case study with the Community Land Model.

PubMed

Huang, Yuanyuan; Lu, Xingjie; Shi, Zheng; Lawrence, David; Koven, Charles D; Xia, Jianyang; Du, Zhenggang; Kluzek, Erik; Luo, Yiqi

2018-03-01

The terrestrial carbon (C) cycle has been commonly represented by a series of C balance equations to track C influxes into and effluxes out of individual pools in earth system models (ESMs). This representation matches our understanding of C cycle processes well but makes it difficult to track model behaviors. It is also computationally expensive, limiting the ability to conduct comprehensive parametric sensitivity analyses. To overcome these challenges, we have developed a matrix approach, which reorganizes the C balance equations in the original ESM into one matrix equation without changing any modeled C cycle processes and mechanisms. We applied the matrix approach to the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) with vertically-resolved biogeochemistry. The matrix equation exactly reproduces litter and soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics of the standard CLM4.5 across different spatial-temporal scales. The matrix approach enables effective diagnosis of system properties such as C residence time and attribution of global change impacts to relevant processes. We illustrated, for example, the impacts of CO 2 fertilization on litter and SOC dynamics can be easily decomposed into the relative contributions from C input, allocation of external C into different C pools, nitrogen regulation, altered soil environmental conditions, and vertical mixing along the soil profile. In addition, the matrix tool can accelerate model spin-up, permit thorough parametric sensitivity tests, enable pool-based data assimilation, and facilitate tracking and benchmarking of model behaviors. Overall, the matrix approach can make a broad range of future modeling activities more efficient and effective. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

How are interannual modes of variability IOD, ENSO, SAM, AMO excited by natural and anthropogenic forcing?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maher, Nicola; Marotzke, Jochem

2017-04-01

Natural climate variability is found in observations, paleo-proxies, and climate models. Such climate variability can be intrinsic internal variability or externally forced, for example by changes in greenhouse gases or large volcanic eruptions. There are still questions concerning how external forcing, both natural (e.g., volcanic eruptions and solar variability) and anthropogenic (e.g., greenhouse gases and ozone) may excite both interannual modes of variability in the climate system. This project aims to address some of these problems, utilising the large ensemble of the MPI-ESM-LR climate model. In this study we investigate the statistics of four modes of interannual variability, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using the 100-member ensemble of MPI-ESM-LR the statistical properties of these modes (amplitude and standard deviation) can be assessed over time. Here we compare the properties in the pre-industrial control run, historical run and future scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP2.6) and present preliminary results.

Emerging climate change signals in the interior ocean oxygen content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tjiputra, Jerry; Goris, Nadine; Schwinger, Jörg; Lauvset, Siv

2017-04-01

Earth System Models (ESMs) indicate that human-induced climate change will introduce spatially heterogeneous modifications of dissolved oxygen in the North Atlantic. In the upper ocean, an increase (decrease) is predicted at low (high) latitude. Oxygen increase is driven by a reduction of the oxygen consumption for biological remineralization while warming-induced reduction in air-sea fluxes and increase in remineralization due to weaker overturning circulation lead to the projected decrease. In the interior ocean, modifications in the apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) dominate the overall oxygen changes. Moreover, for the southern subpolar gyre, both observations and model hindcast indicate a close relationship between interior ocean oxygen and the subpolar gyre index. Over the 21st century, all ESMs consistently project a steady weakening of this index and consequently the oxygen. Our finding shows that climate change-induced oxygen depletion in the interior has likely occurred and can already be detected. Nevertheless, considering the observational uncertainties, we show that in the proximity of southern subpolar gyre the projected interior trend is sufficiently large enough for early detection.

Inconsistent Strategies to Spin up Models in CMIP5: Implications for Ocean Biogeochemical Model Performance Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seferian, Roland; Gehlen, Marion; Bopp, Laurent; Resplandy, Laure; Orr, James C.; Marti, Olivier; Dunne, John P.; Christian, James R.; Doney, Scott C.; Ilyina, Tatiana;

Reciprocal Markov modeling of feedback mechanisms between emotion and dietary choice using experience sampling data

PubMed Central

Lu, Ji; Pan, Junhao; Zhang, Qiang; Dubé, Laurette; Ip, Edward H.

2015-01-01

With intensively collected longitudinal data, recent advances in Experience Sampling Method (ESM) benefit social science empirical research, but also pose important methodological challenges. As traditional statistical models are not generally well-equipped to analyze a system of variables that contain feedback loops, this paper proposes the utility of an extended hidden Markov model to model reciprocal relationship between momentary emotion and eating behavior. This paper revisited an ESM data set (Lu, Huet & Dube, 2011) that observed 160 participants’ food consumption and momentary emotions six times per day in 10 days. Focusing on the analyses on feedback loop between mood and meal healthiness decision, the proposed Reciprocal Markov Model (RMM) can accommodate both hidden (“general” emotional states: positive vs. negative state) and observed states (meal: healthier, same or less healthy than usual) without presuming independence between observations and smooth trajectories of mood or behavior changes. The results of RMM analyses illustrated the reciprocal chains of meal consumption and mood as well as the effect of contextual factors that moderate the interrelationship between eating and emotion. A simulation experiment that generated data consistent to the empirical study further demonstrated that the procedure is promising in terms of recovering the parameters. PMID:26717120

A Simulation Study Comparing Incineration and Composting in a Mars-Based Advanced Life Support System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hogan, John; Kang, Sukwon; Cavazzoni, Jim; Levri, Julie; Finn, Cory; Luna, Bernadette (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The objective of this study is to compare incineration and composting in a Mars-based advanced life support (ALS) system. The variables explored include waste pre-processing requirements, reactor sizing and buffer capacities. The study incorporates detailed mathematical models of biomass production and waste processing into an existing dynamic ALS system model. The ALS system and incineration models (written in MATLAB/SIMULINK(c)) were developed at the NASA Ames Research Center. The composting process is modeled using first order kinetics, with different degradation rates for individual waste components (carbohydrates, proteins, fats, cellulose and lignin). The biomass waste streams are generated using modified "Eneray Cascade" crop models, which use light- and dark-cycle temperatures, irradiance, photoperiod, [CO2], planting density, and relative humidity as model inputs. The study also includes an evaluation of equivalent system mass (ESM).

Characterization of LiMn 2O 4 cathodes by electrochemical strain microscopy

DOE PAGES

Alikin, D. O.; Ievlev, A. V.; Luchkin, S. Yu.; ...

2016-03-15

Electrochemical strain microscopy (ESM) is a scanning probe microscopy(SPM) method in which the local electrodiffusion is probed via application of AC voltage to the SPM tip and registration of resulting electrochemical strain. In this study, we implemented ESM to measure local strain in bulk LiMn 2O 4 cathodes of a commercial Li-battery in different states of charge to investigate distribution of Li-ion mobility and concentration. Ramped AC ESM imaging and voltage spectroscopy were used to find the most reliable regime of measurements allowing separating and diminishing different contributions to ESM. This is not a trivial task due to complex geometrymore » of the sample and various obstacles resulting in less predictable contributions of different origins into ESM response: electrostatic tip–surface interactions, charge injection, electrostriction, and flexoelectricity. Finally, understanding and control of these contributions is an important step towards quantitative interpretation of ESM data.« less

Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC-3) Partnership Project Annual Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forest M.; Bochev, Pavel B.; Cameron-Smith, Philip J..

The Applying Computationally Efficient Schemes for BioGeochemical Cycles ACES4BGC Project is advancing the predictive capabilities of Earth System Models (ESMs) by reducing two of the largest sources of uncertainty, aerosols and biospheric feedbacks, with a highly efficient computational approach. In particular, this project is implementing and optimizing new computationally efficient tracer advection algorithms for large numbers of tracer species; adding important biogeochemical interactions between the atmosphere, land, and ocean models; and applying uncertainty quanti cation (UQ) techniques to constrain process parameters and evaluate uncertainties in feedbacks between biogeochemical cycles and the climate system.

Exploring tropical forest vegetation dynamics using the FATES model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koven, C. D.; Fisher, R.; Knox, R. G.; Chambers, J.; Kueppers, L. M.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Davies, S. J.; Dietze, M.; Holm, J.; Massoud, E. C.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Powell, T.; Serbin, S.; Shuman, J. K.; Walker, A. P.; Wright, S. J.; Xu, C.

2017-12-01

Tropical forest vegetation dynamics represent a critical climate feedback in the Earth system, which is poorly represented in current global modeling approaches. We discuss recent progress on exploring these dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a demographic vegetation model for the CESM and ACME ESMs. We will discuss benchmarks of FATES predictions for forest structure against inventory sites, sensitivity of FATES predictions of size and age structure to model parameter uncertainty, and experiments using the FATES model to explore PFT competitive dynamics and the dynamics of size and age distributions in responses to changing climate and CO2.

Prevention and control of sexually transmissible infections among hotel-based female sex workers in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

PubMed

McCormick, Duncan F; Rahman, Motiur; Zadrozny, Sabrina; Alam, Anadil; Ashraf, Lutfa; Neilsen, Graham A; Kelly, Robert; Menezes, Prema; Miller, William C; Hoffman, Irving F

2013-12-01

Hotel-based sex workers in Bangladesh have high rates of sexually transmissible infections (STIs), high client turnover and low condom use. Two monthly clinic-based strategies were compared: periodic presumptive treatment (PPT) and enhanced syndromic management (ESM) - one round of presumptive treatment followed by treatment based on assessment and laboratory tests. A randomised controlled trial compared PPT and ESM by prevalence and incidence, behaviour, retention, cost and STI incidence and prevalence. Demographic, behavioural and clinical data were collected from women at two clinics in Dhaka. All women received presumptive treatment and were randomised to receive PPT or ESM at nine monthly visits. In total, 549 women (median age: <20 years) were enrolled. At baseline, the prevalence of chlamydia (Chlamydia trachomatis) and gonorrhoea (Neisseria gonorrhoeae) was 41% (ESM: 41%; PPT: 42%). After 9 months, chlamydia and gonorrhoea decreased to 7% overall, (ESM: 7.4%; PPT: 6.8%). At each visit, 98% of women receiving ESM met the therapy criteria and were treated. Retention was low (50%). Total costs were 50% lower per visit for each woman for PPT (ESM: $11.62 v. PPT: $5.80). The number of sex work sessions was reduced from 3.3 to 2.5 (P<0.001), but income did not change. Coercion was reduced but condom use at last sex did not change significantly. Monthly PPT and ESM were effective approaches for STI control. PPT offered a feasible, low-cost alternative to ESM. Educational aspects led to a reduction in coercion and fewer sessions. Implementation studies are needed to improve condom use and retention.

Second harmonic detection in the electrochemical strain microscopy of Ag-ion conducting glass

DOE PAGES

Yang, Sangmo; Okatan, Mahmut Baris; Paranthaman, Mariappan Parans; ...

2014-11-14

The first and second harmonic electromechanical responses and their cross-correlation in Ag-ion conducting glass were investigated using band-excitation electrochemical strain microscopy (ESM). Consecutive ESM images with increasing magnitudes of the applied AC voltage allowed observation of not only reversible surface displacement but also irreversible silver nanoparticle formation above a certain threshold voltage. The second harmonic ESM response was anticorrelated with the first harmonic response in many local regions. Furthermore, the nucleation sites of silver nanoparticles were closely related to the anti-correlated regions, specifically, with low second harmonic and high first harmonic ESM responses. The possible origins of the second harmonicmore » ESM response are discussed.« less

A New Ice-sheet / Ocean Interaction Model for Greenland Fjords using High-Order Discontinuous Galerkin Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopera, M. A.; Maslowski, W.; Giraldo, F.

2015-12-01

One of the key outstanding challenges in modeling of climate change and sea-level rise is the ice-sheet/ocean interaction in narrow, elongated and geometrically complicated fjords around Greenland. To address this challenge we propose a new approach, a separate fjord model using discontinuous Galerkin (DG) methods, or FDG. The goal of this project is to build a separate, high-resolution module for use in Earth System Models (ESMs) to realistically represent the fjord bathymetry, coastlines, exchanges with the outside ocean, circulation and fine-scale processes occurring within the fjord and interactions at the ice shelf interface. FDG is currently at the first stage of development. The DG method provides FDG with high-order accuracy as well as geometrical flexibility, including the capacity to handle non-conforming adaptive mesh refinement to resolve the processes occurring near the ice-sheet/ocean interface without introducing prohibitive computational costs. Another benefit of this method is its excellent performance on multi- and many-core architectures, which allows for utilizing modern high performance computing systems for high-resolution simulations. The non-hydrostatic model of the incompressible Navier-Stokes equation will account for the stationary ice-shelf with sub-shelf ocean interaction, basal melting and subglacial meltwater influx and with boundary conditions at the surface to account for floating sea ice. The boundary conditions will be provided to FDG via a flux coupler to emulate the integration with an ESM. Initially, FDG will be tested for the Sermilik Fjord settings, using real bathymetry, boundary and initial conditions, and evaluated against available observations and other model results for this fjord. The overarching goal of the project is to be able to resolve the ice-sheet/ocean interactions around the entire coast of Greenland and two-way coupling with regional and global climate models such as the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), Community Earth System Model (CESM) or Advanced Climate Model for Energy (ACME).

Major modes of short-term climate variability in the newly developed NUIST Earth System Model (NESM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Jian; Wang, Bin; Xiang, Baoqiang; Li, Juan; Wu, Tianjie; Fu, Xiouhua; Wu, Liguang; Min, Jinzhong

2015-05-01

A coupled earth system model (ESM) has been developed at the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST) by using version 5.3 of the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM), version 3.4 of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO), and version 4.1 of the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE). The model is referred to as NUIST ESM1 (NESM1). Comprehensive and quantitative metrics are used to assess the model's major modes of climate variability most relevant to subseasonal-to-interannual climate prediction. The model's assessment is placed in a multi-model framework. The model yields a realistic annual mean and annual cycle of equatorial SST, and a reasonably realistic precipitation climatology, but has difficulty in capturing the spring-fall asymmetry and monsoon precipitation domains. The ENSO mode is reproduced well with respect to its spatial structure, power spectrum, phase locking to the annual cycle, and spatial structures of the central Pacific (CP)-ENSO and eastern Pacific (EP)-ENSO; however, the equatorial SST variability, biennial component of ENSO, and the amplitude of CP-ENSO are overestimated. The model captures realistic intraseasonal variability patterns, the vertical-zonal structures of the first two leading predictable modes of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and its eastward propagation; but the simulated MJO speed is significantly slower than observed. Compared with the T42 version, the high resolution version (T159) demonstrates improved simulation with respect to the climatology, interannual variance, monsoon-ENSO lead-lag correlation, spatial structures of the leading mode of the Asian-Australian monsoon rainfall variability, and the eastward propagation of the MJO.

Safety of a condom uterine balloon tamponade (ESM-UBT) device for uncontrolled primary postpartum hemorrhage among facilities in Kenya and Sierra Leone.

PubMed

Ramanathan, Aparna; Eckardt, Melody J; Nelson, Brett D; Guha, Moytrayee; Oguttu, Monica; Altawil, Zaid; Burke, Thomas

2018-05-15

Postpartum hemorrhage is the leading cause of maternal mortality in low- and middle-income countries. While evidence on uterine balloon tamponade efficacy for severe hemorrhage is encouraging, little is known about safety of this intervention. The objective of this study was to evaluate the safety of an ultra-low-cost uterine balloon tamponade package (named ESM-UBT) for facility-based management of uncontrolled postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) in Kenya and Sierra Leone. Data were collected on complications/adverse events in all women who had an ESM-UBT device placed among 92 facilities in Sierra Leone and Kenya, between September 2012 and December 2015, as part of a multi-country study. Three expert maternal health investigator physicians analyzed each complication/adverse event and developed consensus on whether there was a potential causal relationship associated with use of the ESM-UBT device. Adverse events/complications specifically investigated included death, hysterectomy, uterine rupture, perineal or cervical injury, serious or minor infection, and latex allergy/anaphylaxis. Of the 201 women treated with an ESM-UBT device in Kenya and Sierra Leone, 189 (94.0%) survived. Six-week or longer follow-up was recorded in 156 of the 189 (82.5%). A causal relationship between use of an ESM-UBT device and one death, three perineal injuries and one case of mild endometritis could not be completely excluded. Three experts found a potential association between these injuries and an ESM-UBT device highly unlikely. The ESM-UBT device appears safe for use in women with uncontrolled PPH. Trial registration was not completed as data was collected as a quality assurance measure for the ESM-UBT kit.

Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

PubMed

Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

2017-09-16

Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

Advanced Life Support Research and Technology Development Metric: Fiscal Year 2003

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanford, A. J.

2004-01-01

This document provides the official calculation of the Advanced Life Support (ALS) Research and Technology Development Metric (the Metric) for Fiscal Year 2003. As such, the values herein are primarily based on Systems Integration, Modeling, and Analysis (SIMA) Element approved software tools or reviewed and approved reference documents. The Metric is one of several measures employed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to assess the Agency s progress as mandated by the United States Congress and the Office of Management and Budget. Because any measure must have a reference point, whether explicitly defined or implied, the Metric is a comparison between a selected ALS Project life support system and an equivalently detailed life support system using technology from the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) for the International Space Station (ISS). More specifically, the Metric is the ratio defined by the equivalent system mass (ESM) of a life support system for a specific mission using the ISS ECLSS technologies divided by the ESM for an equivalent life support system using the best ALS technologies. As defined, the Metric should increase in value as the ALS technologies become lighter, less power intensive, and require less volume. For Fiscal Year 2003, the Advanced Life Support Research and Technology Development Metric value is 1.47 for an Orbiting Research Facility and 1.36 for an Independent Exploration Mission.

Quantifying differences in land use emission estimates implied by definition discrepancies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stocker, B. D.; Joos, F.

2015-11-01

The quantification of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land use and land use change (eLUC) is essential to understand the drivers of the atmospheric CO2 increase and to inform climate change mitigation policy. Reported values in synthesis reports are commonly derived from different approaches (observation-driven bookkeeping and process-modelling) but recent work has emphasized that inconsistencies between methods may imply substantial differences in eLUC estimates. However, a consistent quantification is lacking and no concise modelling protocol for the separation of primary and secondary components of eLUC has been established. Here, we review differences of eLUC quantification methods and apply an Earth System Model (ESM) of Intermediate Complexity to quantify them. We find that the magnitude of effects due to merely conceptual differences between ESM and offline vegetation model-based quantifications is ~ 20 % for today. Under a future business-as-usual scenario, differences tend to increase further due to slowing land conversion rates and an increasing impact of altered environmental conditions on land-atmosphere fluxes. We establish how coupled Earth System Models may be applied to separate secondary component fluxes of eLUC arising from the replacement of potential C sinks/sources and the land use feedback and show that secondary fluxes derived from offline vegetation models are conceptually and quantitatively not identical to either, nor their sum. Therefore, we argue that synthesis studies should resort to the "least common denominator" of different methods, following the bookkeeping approach where only primary land use emissions are quantified under the assumption of constant environmental boundary conditions.

Educator Sexual Misconduct and Texas Educator Discipline Database Construction.

PubMed

Robert, Catherine E; Thompson, David P

2018-05-24

The purpose of this research is to describe Texas educator sexual misconduct (ESM) by examining 8 years of sanctions issued to educators (N = 1415) for either sexual misconduct or inappropriate relationships with students or minors. We first examine Texas ESM from the perspective of quality database construction and then describe the demographic characteristics of educators sanctioned for ESM between 2008 and 2016. Differences in the demographic characteristics of educators sanctioned for ESM vary according to the definition of ESM employed by the state education agency. Younger and early career educators are more likely to engage in inappropriate relationships with students or minors, whereas older and later-career teachers are more likely to engage in sexual misconduct as that term is defined by the state education agency. Over one-third of educators sanctioned for ESM were either new to the profession or new to their school district when sanctioned. Recommendations are offered for database construction, policy, and practice.

A global scale mechanistic model of photosynthetic capacity (LUNA V1.0)

DOE PAGES

Ali, Ashehad A.; Xu, Chonggang; Rogers, Alistair; ...

2016-02-12

Although plant photosynthetic capacity as determined by the maximum carboxylation rate (i.e., V c,max25) and the maximum electron transport rate (i.e., J max25) at a reference temperature (generally 25 °C) is known to vary considerably in space and time in response to environmental conditions, it is typically parameterized in Earth system models (ESMs) with tabulated values associated with plant functional types. In this study, we have developed a mechanistic model of leaf utilization of nitrogen for assimilation (LUNA) to predict photosynthetic capacity at the global scale under different environmental conditions. We adopt an optimality hypothesis to nitrogen allocation among lightmore » capture, electron transport, carboxylation and respiration. The LUNA model is able to reasonably capture the measured spatial and temporal patterns of photosynthetic capacity as it explains ~55 % of the global variation in observed values of V c,max25 and ~65 % of the variation in the observed values of J max25. Model simulations with LUNA under current and future climate conditions demonstrate that modeled values of V c,max25 are most affected in high-latitude regions under future climates. In conclusion, ESMs that relate the values of V c,max25 or J max25 to plant functional types only are likely to substantially overestimate future global photosynthesis.« less

Experience sampling and ecological momentary assessment studies in psychopharmacology: A systematic review.

PubMed

Bos, Fionneke M; Schoevers, Robert A; aan het Rot, Marije

2015-11-01

Experience sampling methods (ESM) and ecological momentary assessment (EMA) offer insight into daily life experiences, including symptoms of mental disorders. The application of ESM/EMA in psychopharmacology can be a valuable addition to more traditional measures such as retrospective self-report questionnaires because they may help reveal the impact of psychotropic medication on patients' actual experiences. In this paper we systematically review the existing literature on the use of ESM/EMA in psychopharmacology research. To this end, we searched the PsycInfo and Medline databases for all available ESM/EMA studies on the use of psychotropic medication in patients with DSM-III-R and DSM-IV disorders. Dissertations were excluded. We included 18 studies that applied ESM/EMA to study the effects of medication on patients with major depressive disorder, substance use disorder, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, psychotic disorder, and anxiety disorder. We found that ESM/EMA may allow researchers and clinicians to track patients during different phases of treatment: before treatment to predict outcome, during treatment to examine the effects of treatment on symptoms and different aspects of daily life experience, and after treatment to detect vulnerability for relapse. Moreover, ESM/EMA can potentially help determine how long and in what contexts medications are effective. Thus, ESM/EMA may benefit both researchers and clinicians and might prove to be an effective tool for improving the treatment of psychiatric patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hongmei; Ilyina, Tatiana

2018-01-01

We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemble mean), and the largest internal variability is found in major carbon sink regions, that is, the 50-65°S band of the Southern Ocean, the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic. The MPI-ESM ensemble produces both positive and negative 10 year trends in the ocean carbon uptake in agreement with observational estimates. Negative decadal trends are projected to occur in the future under RCP4.5 scenario. Due to the large internal variability, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific require the most ensemble members (more than 53 and 46, respectively) to reproduce the forced decadal trends. This number increases up to 79 in future decades as CO2 emission trajectory changes.

Etude d'integration fonctionnelle du cycle de developpement des produits et des communautes de pratique virtuelles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doumit, Nancy

Product development, subject to time constraints and system complexity, needs synchronous communication between different disciplines and locations in order to enable knowledge sharing. Being well supported, informal information flow increases productivity during product realization. Therefore, manufacturing industries are exploring the use of Enterprise Social Media (ESM) functionalities. This thesis explores the functional integration of formal information technologies such as Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) software with informal technologies as ESM through an industrial case study. Reviewing literature, the candidate has identified a gap between Virtual Communities of Practice (VCoP) and product development, as well as the correlation of PLM solutions and noncontrolled ESM in the aerospace industry. In order to disseminate a descriptive study of the current collaboration status, the author has undertaken online surveys for geodistant employees of the same department, semi-structured interviews and research among existing documentations. Subsequently, a Quality Functional Analysis is performed via two modified House of Quality matrices (PLM and ESM) to assign a convenient support for information transfer independently of its content maturity. Users' needs are categorized, and for each category a choice of platform is made with further recommendation regarding the use of the function or the need of human intervention. VCoP form an integrated part of the solution where employees support the technical content. Thus, essential roles and responsibilities are presented to maintain existing CoP and develop new ones. Finally, the candidate presents the limits of this research, gives recommendations for the manufacturing industry and suggests potential continuation of this study using PLM 2.0 with noncontrolled ESM tools.

Improving the representation of photosynthesis in Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, A.; Medlyn, B. E.; Dukes, J.; Bonan, G. B.; von Caemmerer, S.; Dietze, M.; Kattge, J.; Leakey, A. D.; Mercado, L. M.; Niinemets, U.; Prentice, I. C. C.; Serbin, S.; Sitch, S.; Way, D. A.; Zaehle, S.

2015-12-01

Continued use of fossil fuel drives an accelerating increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) and is the principal cause of global climate change. Many of the observed and projected impacts of rising [CO2] portend increasing environmental and economic risk, yet the uncertainty surrounding the projection of our future climate by Earth System Models (ESMs) is unacceptably high. Improving confidence in our estimation of future [CO2] is essential if we seek to project global change with greater confidence. There are critical uncertainties over the long term response of terrestrial CO2 uptake to global change, more specifically, over the size of the terrestrial carbon sink and over its sensitivity to rising [CO2] and temperature. Reducing the uncertainty associated with model representation of the largest CO2 flux on the planet is therefore an essential part of improving confidence in projections of global change. Here we have examined model representation of photosynthesis in seven process models including several global models that underlie the representation of photosynthesis in the land surface model component of ESMs that were part of the recent Fifth Assessment Report from the IPCC. Our approach was to focus on how physiological responses are represented by these models, and to better understand how structural and parametric differences drive variation in model responses to light, CO2, nutrients, temperature, vapor pressure deficit and soil moisture. We challenged each model to produce leaf and canopy responses to these factors to help us identify areas in which current process knowledge and emerging data sets could be used to improve model skill, and also identify knowledge gaps in current understanding that directly impact model outputs. We hope this work will provide a roadmap for the scientific activity that is necessary to advance process representation, parameterization and scaling of photosynthesis in the next generation of Earth System Models.

Plant responses to increasing CO 2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Swann, Abigail L. S.; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Koven, Charles D.

Rising atmospheric CO 2 will make Earth warmer, and many studies have inferred that this warming will cause droughts to become more widespread and severe. However, rising atmospheric CO 2 also modifies stomatal conductance and plant water use, processes that are often are overlooked in impact analysis. We find that plant physiological responses to CO 2 reduce predictions of future drought stress, and that this reduction is captured by using plant-centric rather than atmosphere-centric metrics from Earth system models (ESMs). The atmosphere-centric Palmer Drought Severity Index predicts future increases in drought stress for more than 70% of global land area.more » This area drops to 37% with the use of precipitation minus evapo-transpiration (P-E), a measure that represents the water flux available to downstream ecosystems and humans. The two metrics yield consistent estimates of increasing stress in regions where precipitation decreases are more robust (southern North America, northeastern South America, and southern Europe). The metrics produce diverging estimates elsewhere, with P-E predicting decreasing stress across temperate Asia and central Africa. The differing sensitivity of drought metrics to radiative and physiological aspects of increasing CO 2 partly explains the divergent estimates of future drought reported in recent studies. Further, use of ESM output in offline models may double-count plant feedbacks on relative humidity and other surface variables, leading to overestimates of future stress. The use of drought metrics that account for the response of plant transpiration to changing CO 2, including direct use of P-E and soil moisture from ESMs, is needed to reduce uncertainties in future assessment.« less

Plant responses to increasing CO 2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity

DOE PAGES

Swann, Abigail L. S.; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Koven, Charles D.; ...

2016-08-29

Rising atmospheric CO 2 will make Earth warmer, and many studies have inferred that this warming will cause droughts to become more widespread and severe. However, rising atmospheric CO 2 also modifies stomatal conductance and plant water use, processes that are often are overlooked in impact analysis. We find that plant physiological responses to CO 2 reduce predictions of future drought stress, and that this reduction is captured by using plant-centric rather than atmosphere-centric metrics from Earth system models (ESMs). The atmosphere-centric Palmer Drought Severity Index predicts future increases in drought stress for more than 70% of global land area.more » This area drops to 37% with the use of precipitation minus evapo-transpiration (P-E), a measure that represents the water flux available to downstream ecosystems and humans. The two metrics yield consistent estimates of increasing stress in regions where precipitation decreases are more robust (southern North America, northeastern South America, and southern Europe). The metrics produce diverging estimates elsewhere, with P-E predicting decreasing stress across temperate Asia and central Africa. The differing sensitivity of drought metrics to radiative and physiological aspects of increasing CO 2 partly explains the divergent estimates of future drought reported in recent studies. Further, use of ESM output in offline models may double-count plant feedbacks on relative humidity and other surface variables, leading to overestimates of future stress. The use of drought metrics that account for the response of plant transpiration to changing CO 2, including direct use of P-E and soil moisture from ESMs, is needed to reduce uncertainties in future assessment.« less

Separating the influence of temperature, drought, and fire on interannual variability in atmospheric CO2

PubMed Central

Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Wolf, Aaron S; Mu, Mingquan; Doney, Scott C; Morton, Douglas C; Kasibhatla, Prasad S; Miller, John B; Dlugokencky, Edward J; Randerson, James T

2014-01-01

The response of the carbon cycle in prognostic Earth system models (ESMs) contributes significant uncertainty to projections of global climate change. Quantifying contributions of known drivers of interannual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is important for improving the representation of terrestrial ecosystem processes in these ESMs. Several recent studies have identified the temperature dependence of tropical net ecosystem exchange (NEE) as a primary driver of this variability by analyzing a single, globally averaged time series of CO2 anomalies. Here we examined how the temporal evolution of CO2 in different latitude bands may be used to separate contributions from temperature stress, drought stress, and fire emissions to CO2 variability. We developed atmospheric CO2 patterns from each of these mechanisms during 1997–2011 using an atmospheric transport model. NEE responses to temperature, NEE responses to drought, and fire emissions all contributed significantly to CO2 variability in each latitude band, suggesting that no single mechanism was the dominant driver. We found that the sum of drought and fire contributions to CO2 variability exceeded direct NEE responses to temperature in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Additional sensitivity tests revealed that these contributions are masked by temporal and spatial smoothing of CO2 observations. Accounting for fires, the sensitivity of tropical NEE to temperature stress decreased by 25% to 2.9 ± 0.4 Pg C yr−1 K−1. These results underscore the need for accurate attribution of the drivers of CO2 variability prior to using contemporary observations to constrain long-term ESM responses. PMID:26074665

Separating the influence of temperature, drought, and fire on interannual variability in atmospheric CO2.

PubMed

Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Wolf, Aaron S; Mu, Mingquan; Doney, Scott C; Morton, Douglas C; Kasibhatla, Prasad S; Miller, John B; Dlugokencky, Edward J; Randerson, James T

2014-11-01

The response of the carbon cycle in prognostic Earth system models (ESMs) contributes significant uncertainty to projections of global climate change. Quantifying contributions of known drivers of interannual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is important for improving the representation of terrestrial ecosystem processes in these ESMs. Several recent studies have identified the temperature dependence of tropical net ecosystem exchange (NEE) as a primary driver of this variability by analyzing a single, globally averaged time series of CO 2 anomalies. Here we examined how the temporal evolution of CO 2 in different latitude bands may be used to separate contributions from temperature stress, drought stress, and fire emissions to CO 2 variability. We developed atmospheric CO 2 patterns from each of these mechanisms during 1997-2011 using an atmospheric transport model. NEE responses to temperature, NEE responses to drought, and fire emissions all contributed significantly to CO 2 variability in each latitude band, suggesting that no single mechanism was the dominant driver. We found that the sum of drought and fire contributions to CO 2 variability exceeded direct NEE responses to temperature in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Additional sensitivity tests revealed that these contributions are masked by temporal and spatial smoothing of CO 2 observations. Accounting for fires, the sensitivity of tropical NEE to temperature stress decreased by 25% to 2.9 ± 0.4 Pg C yr -1  K -1 . These results underscore the need for accurate attribution of the drivers of CO 2 variability prior to using contemporary observations to constrain long-term ESM responses.

Strong dependence of CO 2 emissions from anthropogenic land cover change on initial land cover and soil carbon parametrization

DOE PAGES

Goll, Daniel S.; Brovkin, Victor; Liski, Jari; ...

2015-08-12

The quantification of sources and sinks of carbon from land use and land cover changes (LULCC) is uncertain. We investigated how the parametrization of LULCC and of organic matter decomposition, as well as initial land cover, affects the historical and future carbon fluxes in an Earth System Model (ESM). Using the land component of the Max Planck Institute ESM, we found that the historical (1750–2010) LULCC flux varied up to 25% depending on the fraction of biomass which enters the atmosphere directly due to burning or is used in short-lived products. The uncertainty in the decadal LULCC fluxes of themore » recent past due to the parametrization of decomposition and direct emissions was 0.6 Pg C yr $-$1, which is 3 times larger than the uncertainty previously attributed to model and method in general. Preindustrial natural land cover had a larger effect on decadal LULCC fluxes than the aforementioned parameter sensitivity (1.0 Pg C yr $-$1). Regional differences between reconstructed and dynamically computed land covers, in particular, at low latitudes, led to differences in historical LULCC emissions of 84–114 Pg C, globally. This effect is larger than the effects of forest regrowth, shifting cultivation, or climate feedbacks and comparable to the effect of differences among studies in the terminology of LULCC. Finally, in general, we find that the practice of calibrating the net land carbon balance to provide realistic boundary conditions for the climate component of an ESM hampers the applicability of the land component outside its primary field of application.« less

Strong dependence of CO 2 emissions from anthropogenic land cover change on initial land cover and soil carbon parametrization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goll, Daniel S.; Brovkin, Victor; Liski, Jari

The quantification of sources and sinks of carbon from land use and land cover changes (LULCC) is uncertain. We investigated how the parametrization of LULCC and of organic matter decomposition, as well as initial land cover, affects the historical and future carbon fluxes in an Earth System Model (ESM). Using the land component of the Max Planck Institute ESM, we found that the historical (1750–2010) LULCC flux varied up to 25% depending on the fraction of biomass which enters the atmosphere directly due to burning or is used in short-lived products. The uncertainty in the decadal LULCC fluxes of themore » recent past due to the parametrization of decomposition and direct emissions was 0.6 Pg C yr $-$1, which is 3 times larger than the uncertainty previously attributed to model and method in general. Preindustrial natural land cover had a larger effect on decadal LULCC fluxes than the aforementioned parameter sensitivity (1.0 Pg C yr $-$1). Regional differences between reconstructed and dynamically computed land covers, in particular, at low latitudes, led to differences in historical LULCC emissions of 84–114 Pg C, globally. This effect is larger than the effects of forest regrowth, shifting cultivation, or climate feedbacks and comparable to the effect of differences among studies in the terminology of LULCC. Finally, in general, we find that the practice of calibrating the net land carbon balance to provide realistic boundary conditions for the climate component of an ESM hampers the applicability of the land component outside its primary field of application.« less

Evaluation of simulated ocean carbon in the CMIP5 earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orr, James; Brockmann, Patrick; Seferian, Roland; Servonnat, Jérôme; Bopp, Laurent

2013-04-01

We maintain a centralized model output archive containing output from the previous generation of Earth System Models (ESMs), 7 models used in the IPCC AR4 assessment. Output is in a common format located on a centralized server and is publicly available through a web interface. Through the same interface, LSCE/IPSL has also made available output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the foundation for the ongoing IPCC AR5 assessment. The latter includes ocean biogeochemical fields from more than 13 ESMs. Modeling partners across 3 EU projects refer to the combined AR4-AR5 archive and comparison as OCMIP5, building on previous phases of OCMIP (Ocean Carbon Cycle Intercomparison Project) and making a clear link to IPCC AR5 (CMIP5). While now focusing on assessing the latest generation of results (AR5, CMIP5), this effort is also able to put them in context (AR4). For model comparison and evaluation, we have also stored computed derived variables (e.g., those needed to assess ocean acidification) and key fields regridded to a common 1°x1° grid, thus complementing the standard CMIP5 archive. The combined AR4-AR5 output (OCMIP5) has been used to compute standard quantitative metrics, both global and regional, and those have been synthesized with summary diagrams. In addition, for key biogeochemical fields we have deconvolved spatiotemporal components of the mean square error in order to constrain which models go wrong where. Here we will detail results from these evaluations which have exploited gridded climatological data. The archive, interface, and centralized evaluation provide a solid technical foundation, upon which collaboration and communication is being broadened in the ocean biogeochemical modeling community. Ultimately we aim to encourage wider use of the OCMIP5 archive.

Drought impact on vegetation growth and mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, C.; Wang, M.; Allen, C. D.; McDowell, N. G.; Middleton, R. S.

2017-12-01

Vegetation is a key regulator of the global carbon cycle via CO2 absorption through photosynthesis and subsequent growth; however, low water availability, heat stress, and disturbances associated with droughts could substantially reduce vegetation growth and increase vegetation mortality. As far as we know, there are few studies have assessed the drought impact on vegetation growth and mortality at regional and global scales. In this study, we analyzed 13 Earth System models (ESMs) to quantify the impact of drought on GPP and linked the remote-sensing based tree mortality to observed drought indices to assess the drought impact on tree mortality in continental US (CONUS). Our analysis of 13 Earth System models (ESMs) shows that the average global gross primary production (GPP) reduction per year associated with extreme droughts over years 2075-2099 is predicted to be 3-5 times larger than that over years 1850-1999. The annual drought-associated reduction in GPP over years 2075-2099 could be 52 and 74 % of annual fossil fuel carbon emission during years 2000-2007. Increasing drought impacts on GPP are driven primarily by the increasing drought frequency. The risks of drought-associated GPP reduction are particularly high for temperate and tropical regions. The consistent prediction of higher drought-associated reduction in NPP across 13 ESMs suggests increasing impacts of drought on the global carbon cycle with atmospheric warming. Our analysis of drought impact on tree mortality showed that drought-associated carbon loss accounts for 12% of forest carbon loss in CONUS for 2000-2014, which is about one-fifth of that resulting from timber harvesting and 1.35 % of average annual fossil fuel emissions in the U.S. for the same period. The carbon stock loss from natural disturbances for 2000-2014 is approximately 75% of the total carbon loss from anthropogenic disturbance (timber harvesting), suggesting that natural disturbances play a very important role on forest carbon loss from dead trees. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of drought impact on forest carbon stocks at the continental level and will provide critical data for future model improvement to better predict the vegetation mortality under droughts.

The Earth System Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schoeberl, Mark; Rood, Richard B.; Hildebrand, Peter; Raymond, Carol

2003-01-01

The Earth System Model is the natural evolution of current climate models and will be the ultimate embodiment of our geophysical understanding of the planet. These models are constructed from components - atmosphere, ocean, ice, land, chemistry, solid earth, etc. models and merged together through a coupling program which is responsible for the exchange of data from the components. Climate models and future earth system models will have standardized modules, and these standards are now being developed by the ESMF project funded by NASA. The Earth System Model will have a variety of uses beyond climate prediction. The model can be used to build climate data records making it the core of an assimilation system, and it can be used in OSSE experiments to evaluate. The computing and storage requirements for the ESM appear to be daunting. However, the Japanese ES theoretical computing capability is already within 20% of the minimum requirements needed for some 2010 climate model applications. Thus it seems very possible that a focused effort to build an Earth System Model will achieve succcss.

Reduced-Order Biogeochemical Flux Model for High-Resolution Multi-Scale Biophysical Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Katherine; Hamlington, Peter; Pinardi, Nadia; Zavatarelli, Marco

2017-04-01

Biogeochemical tracers and their interactions with upper ocean physical processes such as submesoscale circulations and small-scale turbulence are critical for understanding the role of the ocean in the global carbon cycle. These interactions can cause small-scale spatial and temporal heterogeneity in tracer distributions that can, in turn, greatly affect carbon exchange rates between the atmosphere and interior ocean. For this reason, it is important to take into account small-scale biophysical interactions when modeling the global carbon cycle. However, explicitly resolving these interactions in an earth system model (ESM) is currently infeasible due to the enormous associated computational cost. As a result, understanding and subsequently parameterizing how these small-scale heterogeneous distributions develop and how they relate to larger resolved scales is critical for obtaining improved predictions of carbon exchange rates in ESMs. In order to address this need, we have developed the reduced-order, 17 state variable Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM-17) that follows the chemical functional group approach, which allows for non-Redfield stoichiometric ratios and the exchange of matter through units of carbon, nitrate, and phosphate. This model captures the behavior of open-ocean biogeochemical systems without substantially increasing computational cost, thus allowing the model to be combined with computationally-intensive, fully three-dimensional, non-hydrostatic large eddy simulations (LES). In this talk, we couple BFM-17 with the Princeton Ocean Model and show good agreement between predicted monthly-averaged results and Bermuda testbed area field data (including the Bermuda-Atlantic Time-series Study and Bermuda Testbed Mooring). Through these tests, we demonstrate the capability of BFM-17 to accurately model open-ocean biochemistry. Additionally, we discuss the use of BFM-17 within a multi-scale LES framework and outline how this will further our understanding of turbulent biophysical interactions in the upper ocean.

Reduced-Order Biogeochemical Flux Model for High-Resolution Multi-Scale Biophysical Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, K.; Hamlington, P.; Pinardi, N.; Zavatarelli, M.; Milliff, R. F.

2016-12-01

Biogeochemical tracers and their interactions with upper ocean physical processes such as submesoscale circulations and small-scale turbulence are critical for understanding the role of the ocean in the global carbon cycle. These interactions can cause small-scale spatial and temporal heterogeneity in tracer distributions which can, in turn, greatly affect carbon exchange rates between the atmosphere and interior ocean. For this reason, it is important to take into account small-scale biophysical interactions when modeling the global carbon cycle. However, explicitly resolving these interactions in an earth system model (ESM) is currently infeasible due to the enormous associated computational cost. As a result, understanding and subsequently parametrizing how these small-scale heterogeneous distributions develop and how they relate to larger resolved scales is critical for obtaining improved predictions of carbon exchange rates in ESMs. In order to address this need, we have developed the reduced-order, 17 state variable Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM-17). This model captures the behavior of open-ocean biogeochemical systems without substantially increasing computational cost, thus allowing the model to be combined with computationally-intensive, fully three-dimensional, non-hydrostatic large eddy simulations (LES). In this talk, we couple BFM-17 with the Princeton Ocean Model and show good agreement between predicted monthly-averaged results and Bermuda testbed area field data (including the Bermuda-Atlantic Time Series and Bermuda Testbed Mooring). Through these tests, we demonstrate the capability of BFM-17 to accurately model open-ocean biochemistry. Additionally, we discuss the use of BFM-17 within a multi-scale LES framework and outline how this will further our understanding of turbulent biophysical interactions in the upper ocean.

Analysis of environmental factors impacting the life cycle cost analysis of conventional and fuel cell/battery-powered passenger vehicles. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

This report presents the results of the further developments and testing of the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) Model previously developed by Engineering Systems Management, Inc. (ESM) on behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under contract No. DE-AC02-91CH10491. The Model incorporates specific analytical relationships and cost/performance data relevant to internal combustion engine (ICE) powered vehicles, battery powered electric vehicles (BPEVs), and fuel cell/battery-powered electric vehicles (FCEVs).

Estimation of the atmosphere-ocean fluxes of greenhouse gases and aerosols at the finer resolution of the coastal ocean.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieira, Vasco; Sahlée, Erik; Jurus, Pavel; Clementi, Emanuela; Pettersson, Heidi; Mateus, Marcos

2016-04-01

The balances and fluxes of greenhouse gases and aerosols between atmosphere and ocean are fundamental for Earth's heat budget. Hence, the scientific community needs to know and simulate them with accuracy in order to monitor climate change from Earth-Observation satellites and to produce reliable estimates of climate change using Earth-System Models (ESM). So far, ESM have represented earth's surface with coarser resolutions so that each cell of the marine domain is dominated by the open ocean. In such case it is enough to use simple algorithms considering the wind speed 10m above sea-surface (u10) as sole driver of the gas transfer velocity. The formulation by Wanninkhof (1992) is broadly accepted as the best. However, the ESM community is becoming increasingly aware of the need to model with finer resolutions. Then, it is no longer enough to only consider u10 when modelling gas transfer velocities across the coastal oceans' surfaces. More comprehensive formulations are required that adjust better to local conditions by also accounting for the effects of sea-surface agitation, wave breaking, atmospheric stability of the Surface Boundary Layer, current drag with the bottom, surfactants and rain. Accurate algorithms are also fundamental to monitor atmosphere and ocean greenhouse gas concentrations using satellite data and reverse modelling. Past satellite missions ERS, Envisat, Jason-2, Aqua, Terra and Metop, have already been remotely sensing the ocean's surface at much finer resolutions than ESM using instruments like MERIS, MODIS, AMR, AATSR, MIPAS, Poseidon-3, SCIAMACHY, SeaWiFS, and IASI. The planned new satellite missions Sentinel-3, OCO-2 and GOSAT will further increase the resolutions. We developed a framework to congregate competing formulations for the estimation of the solubility and transfer velocity of virtually any gas on the biosphere taking into consideration the atmosphere and ocean fundamental variables and their derived geophysical processes mentioned above. First, we tested with measured data from the Baltic. Then, we adapted it to a coupler for atmosphere (WRF) and ocean (WW3-NEMO) model components and tested with simulated data relative to the Mediterranean and coastal North Atlantic. Computational speed was greatly improved by calculus vectorization and parallelization. The classical solubility formulation was compared to a recent alternative relying in a different chemistry background. Differences between solubility formulations resulted in a bias of 3.86×106 ton of CO2, 880.7 ton of CH4 and 401 ton of N2O dissolved in the first meter below the sea-surface of the modelled region, corresponding to 5.9% of the N2O yearly discharged by European estuaries. These differences concentrated in sensitive areas for Earth-System dynamics: the cooler polar waters and warmer less-saline coastal waters. The classical transfer velocity formulation using solely u10 was compared to alternatives using the friction velocity, atmospheric stability, sea-surface agitation and wave breaking. Differences between estimated transfer velocities concentrated at the coastal ocean and resulted in 55.82% of the gas volume transferred over the sea-surface of the modelled region during the 66h simulated period.

Device interoperability and authentication for telemedical appliance based on the ISO/IEEE 11073 Personal Health Device (PHD) Standards.

PubMed

Caranguian, Luther Paul R; Pancho-Festin, Susan; Sison, Luis G

2012-01-01

In this study, we focused on the interoperability and authentication of medical devices in the context of telemedical systems. A recent standard called the ISO/IEEE 11073 Personal Health Device (X73-PHD) Standards addresses the device interoperability problem by defining common protocols for agent (medical device) and manager (appliance) interface. The X73-PHD standard however has not addressed security and authentication of medical devices which is important in establishing integrity of a telemedical system. We have designed and implemented a security policy within the X73-PHD standards. The policy will enable device authentication using Asymmetric-Key Cryptography and the RSA algorithm as the digital signature scheme. We used two approaches for performing the digital signatures: direct software implementation and use of embedded security modules (ESM). The two approaches were evaluated and compared in terms of execution time and memory requirement. For the standard 2048-bit RSA, ESM calculates digital signatures only 12% of the total time for the direct implementation. Moreover, analysis shows that ESM offers more security advantage such as secure storage of keys compared to using direct implementation. Interoperability with other systems was verified by testing the system with LNI Healthlink, a manager software that implements the X73-PHD standard. Lastly, security analysis was done and the system's response to common attacks on authentication systems was analyzed and several measures were implemented to protect the system against them.

A New Discrete Element Sea-Ice Model for Earth System Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Turner, Adrian Keith

Sea ice forms a frozen crust of sea water oating in high-latitude oceans. It is a critical component of the Earth system because its formation helps to drive the global thermohaline circulation, and its seasonal waxing and waning in the high north and Southern Ocean signi cantly affects planetary albedo. Usually 4{6% of Earth's marine surface is covered by sea ice at any one time, which limits the exchange of heat, momentum, and mass between the atmosphere and ocean in the polar realms. Snow accumulates on sea ice and inhibits its vertical growth, increases its albedo, and contributes to pooledmore » water in melt ponds that darken the Arctic ice surface in the spring. Ice extent and volume are subject to strong seasonal, inter-annual and hemispheric variations, and climatic trends, which Earth System Models (ESMs) are challenged to simulate accurately (Stroeve et al., 2012; Stocker et al., 2013). This is because there are strong coupled feedbacks across the atmosphere-ice-ocean boundary layers, including the ice-albedo feedback, whereby a reduced ice cover leads to increased upper ocean heating, further enhancing sea-ice melt and reducing incident solar radiation re ected back into the atmosphere (Perovich et al., 2008). A reduction in perennial Arctic sea-ice during the satellite era has been implicated in mid-latitude weather changes, including over North America (Overland et al., 2015). Meanwhile, most ESMs have been unable to simulate observed inter-annual variability and trends in Antarctic sea-ice extent during the same period (Gagne et al., 2014).« less

The Lifestyle Carbon Dividend: Assessment of the Carbon Sequestration Potential of Grasslands and Pasturelands Reverted to Native Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, S.; Jain, A. K.; Shu, S.

2015-12-01

What is the potential of a global transition to a vegan lifestyle to sequester carbon and mitigate climate change? To answer this question, we use an Earth System Model (ESM), the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM). ISAM is a fully coupled biogeochemistry (carbon and nitrogen cycles) and biogeophysics (hydrology and thermal energy) ESM, which calculates carbon sources and sinks due to land cover and land use change activities, such as reforestation and afforestation. We calculate the carbon sequestration potential of grasslands and pasturelands that can be reverted to native forests as 265 GtC on 1.96E+7 km2 of land area, just 41% of the total area of such lands on Earth. The grasslands and pasturelands are assumed to revert back to native forests which existed prior to any human intervention and these include tropical, temperate and boreal forests. The results are validated with above ground regrowth measurements. Since this carbon sequestration potential is greater than the 240 GtC of that has been added to the atmosphere since the industrial era began, it shows that such global lifestyle transitions have tremendous potential to mitigate and even reverse climate change.

A Moisture Function of Soil Heterotrophic Respiration Derived from Pore-scale Mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Z.; Todd-Brown, K. E.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Bailey, V.; Liu, C.

2017-12-01

Soil heterotrophic respiration (HR) is an important process controlling carbon (C) flux, but its response to changes in soil water content (θ) is poorly understood. Earth system models (ESMs) use empirical moisture functions developed from specific sites to describe the HR-θ relationship in soils, introducing significant uncertainty. Generalized models derived from mechanisms that control substrate availability and microbial respiration are thus urgently needed. Here we derive, present, and test a novel moisture function fp developed from pore-scale mechanisms. This fp encapsulates primary physicochemical and biological processes controlling HR response to moisture variation in soils. We tested fp against a wide range of published data for different soil types, and found that fp reliably predicted diverse HR- relationships. The mathematical relationship between the parameters in fp and macroscopic soil properties such as porosity and organic C content was also established, enabling to estimate fp using soil properties. Compared with empirical moisture functions used in ESMs, this derived fp could reduce uncertainty in predicting the response of soil organic C stock to climate changes. In addition, this work is one of the first studies to upscale a mechanistic soil HR model based on pore-scale processes, thus linking the pore-scale mechanisms with macroscale observations.

Nitrogen and Phosphorus Plant Uptake During Periods with no Photosynthesis Accounts for About Half of Global Annual Uptake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, W. J.; Zhu, Q.; Tang, J.

2017-12-01

Uncertainties in current Earth System Model (ESM) predictions of terrestrial carbon-climate feedbacks over the 21st century are as large as, or larger than, any other reported natural system uncertainties. Soil Organic Matter (SOM) decomposition and photosynthesis, the dominant fluxes in this regard, are tightly linked through nutrient availability, and the recent Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) used for climate change assessment had no credible representations of these constraints. In response, many ESM land models (ESMLMs) have developed dynamic and coupled soil and plant nutrient cycles. Here we quantify terrestrial carbon cycle impacts from well-known observed plant nutrient uptake mechanisms ignored in most current ESMLMs. In particular, we estimate the global role of plant root nutrient competition with microbes and abiotic process at night and during the non-growing season using the ACME land model (ALMv1-ECA-CNP) that explicitly represents these dynamics. We first demonstrate that short-term nutrient uptake dynamics and competition between plants and microbes are accurately predicted by the model compared to 15N and 33P isotopic tracer measurements from more than 20 sites. We then show that global nighttime and non-growing season nitrogen and phosphorus uptake accounts for 46 and 45%, respectively, of annual uptake, with large latitudinal variation. Model experiments show that ignoring these plant uptake periods leads to large positive biases in annual N leaching (globally 58%) and N2O emissions (globally 68%). Biases these large will affect modeled carbon cycle dynamics over time, and lead to predictions of ecosystems that have overly open nutrient cycles and therefore lower capacity to sequester carbon.

Underestimated effects of sediments on enhanced startup performance of biofilm systems for polluted source water pretreatment.

PubMed

Lv, Zheng-Hui; Wang, Jing; Yang, Guang-Feng; Feng, Li-Juan; Mu, Jun; Zhu, Liang; Xu, Xiang-Yang

2018-02-01

In order to evaluate the enhancement mechanisms of enhanced startup performance in biofilm systems for polluted source water pretreatment, three lab-scale reactors with elastic stereo media (ESM) were operated under different enhanced sediment and hydraulic agitation conditions. It is interesting to found the previously underestimated or overlooked effects of sediment on the enhancement of pollutants removal performance and enrichment of functional bacteria in biofilm systems. The maximum NH 4 + -N removal rate of 0.35 mg L -1 h -1 in sediment enhanced condition was 2.19 times of that in control reactor. Sediment contributed to 42.0-56.5% of NH 4 + -N removal and 15.4-41.2% of total nitrogen removal in different reactors under different operation conditions. The enhanced hydraulic agitation with sediment further improved the operation performance and accumulation of functional bacteria. Generally, Proteobacteria (48.9-52.1%), Bacteroidetes (18.9-20.8%) and Actinobacteria (15.7-18.5%) were dominant in both sediment and ESM bioiflm at  phylum level. The potentially functional bacteria found in sediment and ESM biofilm samples with some functional bacteria mainly presented in sediment samples only (e.g., Genera Bacillus and Lactococcus of Firmicutes phylum) may commonly contribute to the removal of nitrogen and organics.

Reconstruction of the Eemian climate using a fully coupled Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybak, Oleg; Volodin, Evgeny; Morozova, Polina; Huybrechts, Philippe

2017-04-01

Climate of the Last Interglacial (LIG) between ca. 130 and 115 kyr BP is thought to be a good analogue for future climate warming. Though the driving mechanisms of the past and current climate evolution differ, analysis of the LIG climate may provide important insights for projections of future environmental changes. We do not know properly what was spatial distribution and magnitude of surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies with respect to present. Sparse proxy data are attributed mostly to the continental margins, internal areas of ice sheets and particular regions of the World Ocean. Combining mathematical modeling and indirect evidence can help to identify driving mechanisms and feed-backs which formed climatic conditions of the LIG. In order to reproduce the LIG climate, we carried out transient numerical experiments using a fully coupled Earth System Model (ESM) consisting of an AO GCM, which includes decription of the biosphere, atmospheric and oceanic chemistry ets. (INMCM), developed in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (Moscow, Russia) and the models of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrISM and AISM, Vrije Uninersiteit Brussel, Belgium). Though the newest version of the INMCM has rather high spatial resolution, it canot be used in long transient numerical experimemts because of high computational demand. Coupling of the GrISM and AISM to the low resolution version of the INMCM is complicated by essential differences in spatial and temporal scales of cryospheric, atmosphere and the ocean components of the ESM (spatial resolution 5˚×4˚, 21 vertical layers in the atmospheric block, 2.5°×2°, 6 min. temporal resolution; 33 vertical layers in the oceanic block; 20×20 km, 51 vertical layers and 1 yr temporal resolution in the GrISM and AISM). We apply two different coupling strategies. AISM is incorporated into the ESM via using procedures of resampling and interpolation of the input fields of annually averaged air surface temperatures and precipitation fields generated by the INMCM. To provide interactive coupling of the INMCM and the GrISM, we employ a special energy- and water balance model (EWBM-G), which serves as a buffer providing effective data exchange between sub-models. EWBM-G operates in a rectangle domain including Greenland and calculates annual surface mass balance (further transferred as an external forcing to the GrISM) and fresh water flux (transferred to the oceanic block of the INMCM). Orbital parameters of the LIG were set with 1 kyr step with further interpolation to 100 years. Assuming concentrations of greenhouse gases during the LIG were not very much different from the preindustrial values, this potential forcing was neglected. Climatic block of the ESM was called every 100 model years to follow changes in orbital forcing. AISM and GrISM were asynchronously coupled to sub-models of the atmosphere and the ocean with the ratio of model years as 100 to 1. Obtained fields of deviations of air surface temperature from preindustrial values correspond in general to the estimates made in earlier studies. Evaluated contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to the global sea level rise (approximately 2 m) supports the newest estimates based on model results and proxy data analysis.

Future projections of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon in a climate change perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudeepkumar, B. L.; Babu, C. A.; Varikoden, Hamza

2018-02-01

The effect of global climate change on Indian summer monsoon has been analysed with special emphasis on active-break cycle. The changes in intensity and duration of active and break monsoon conditions towards the end of the century are studied by using 850 hPa zonal circulations. The analysis is carried out using twenty year climatology of historical period (1986-2005) and future projections (2080-2099) simulated as part of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Models are compared with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The models that effectively capture the circulation pattern of monsoon (JJAS) are considered for assessing the future climate in RCP 4.5 scenario. They are CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR. During the southwest monsoon period, the ensemble mean of models projects a strengthening of the wind speed towards north (north of 15°N) and weakening to the southern region (especially south of 12°N) which facilitates wetting of northern Indian regions and drying of southern peninsular regions. In the case of active-break conditions, the active spells are found to be strengthening over northern India and weakening over the peninsular India, the break spells intensify over southern tip of peninsular India indicating intense breaks. Increased propensity of short intense active days and decreased propensity of long active days are also projected by the models. The number of break spells does not show any significant changes.

The effects of spatial heterogeneity and subsurface lateral transfer on evapotranspiration estimates in large scale Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouholahnejad, E.; Fan, Y.; Kirchner, J. W.; Miralles, D. G.

2017-12-01

Most Earth system models (ESM) average over considerable sub-grid heterogeneity in land surface properties, and overlook subsurface lateral flow. This could potentially bias evapotranspiration (ET) estimates and has implications for future temperature predictions, since overestimations in ET imply greater latent heat fluxes and potential underestimation of dry and warm conditions in the context of climate change. Here we quantify the bias in evaporation estimates that may arise from the fact that ESMs average over considerable heterogeneity in surface properties, and also neglect lateral transfer of water across the heterogeneous landscapes at global scale. We use a Budyko framework to express ET as a function of P and PET to derive simple sub-grid closure relations that quantify how spatial heterogeneity and lateral transfer could affect average ET as seen from the atmosphere. We show that averaging over sub-grid heterogeneity in P and PET, as typical Earth system models do, leads to overestimation of average ET. Our analysis at global scale shows that the effects of sub-grid heterogeneity will be most pronounced in steep mountainous areas where the topographic gradient is high and where P is inversely correlated with PET across the landscape. In addition, we use the Total Water Storage (TWS) anomaly estimates from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) remote sensing product and assimilate it into the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) to correct for existing free drainage lower boundary condition in GLEAM and quantify whether, and how much, accounting for changes in terrestrial storage can improve the simulation of soil moisture and regional ET fluxes at global scale.

Food System Trade Study for a Near-Term Mars Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levri, Julie; Luna, Bernadette (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

This paper evaluates several food system options for a near-term Mars mission, based on plans for the 120-day BIO-Plex test. Food systems considered in the study are based on the International Space Station (ISS) Assembly Phase and Assembly Complete food systems. The four systems considered are: 1) ISS assembly phase food system (US portion) with individual packaging without salad production; 2) ISS assembly phase food system (US portion) with individual packaging, with salad production; 3) ISS assembly phase food system (US portion) with bulk packaging, with salad production; 4) ISS assembly complete food system (US portion) with bulk packaging with salad and refrigeration/freezing. The food system options are assessed using equivalent system mass (ESM), which evaluates each option based upon the mass, volume, power, cooling and crewtime requirements that are associated with each food system option. However, since ESM is unable to elucidate the differences in psychological benefits between the food systems, a qualitative evaluation of each option is also presented.

Climate change impacts analysis on hydrological processes in the Weyib River basin in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serur, Abdulkerim Bedewi; Sarma, Arup Kumar

2017-12-01

The study aims to examine the variation of hydrological processes (in terms of mean annual, seasonal, and monthly) under changing climate within the Weyib River basin in Ethiopia at both basin and sub-basin level using ArcSWAT hydrologic model. The climate change impacts on temperature and precipitation characteristics within the basin have been studied using GFDL-ESM2M, CanESM2, and GFDL-ESM2G models for RCP8.5, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6 scenarios from coupled model inter-comparison project 5 (CMIP5) which have been downscaled by SDSM. The results revealed that the mean annual temperature and precipitation reveal a statistically significant (at 5% significant level) increasing trend in the nine ESM-RCP scenarios for all the future time slices. The mean annual actual evapotranspiration, baseflow, soil water content, percolation, and water availability in the stream exhibit a rise for all the ESMs-RCP scenarios in the entire basin and in all the sub-basins. However, surface runoff and potential evapotranspiration show a decreasing trend. The mean annual water availability increases between 9.18 and 27.97% (RCP8.5), 3.98 and 19.61% (RCP4.5), and 11.82 and 17.06% (RCP2.6) in the entire basin. The sub-basin level analysis reveals that the annual, seasonal, and monthly variations of hydrological processes in all the sub-basins are similar regarding direction but different in magnitude as compared to that of the entire basin analysis. In addition, it is observed that there is a larger monthly and seasonal variation in hydrological processes as compared to the variation in annual scale. The net water availability tends to decline in the dry season; this might cause water shortage in the lowland region and greater increases in an intermediate and rainy seasons; this might cause flooding to some flood prone region of the basin. Since the variation of water availability among the sub-basins in upcoming period is high, there is a scope of meeting agriculture water demand through water transfer from sub-basin having more available water in small area to the sub-basin having less available water in a larger agricultural area.

Longitudinal structure in temperate stream fish communities: evaluating conceptual models with temporal data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberts, James H.; Hitt, Nathaniel P.

2010-01-01

Five conceptual models of longitudinal fish community organization in streams were examined: (1) niche diversity model (NDM), (2) stream continuum model (SCM), (3) immigrant accessibility model (IAM), (4) environmental stability model (ESM), and (5) adventitious stream model (ASM). We used differences among models in their predictions about temporal species turnover, along with five spatiotemporal fish community data sets, to evaluate model applicability. Models were similar in predicting a positive species richness–stream size relationship and longitudinal species nestedness, but differed in predicting either similar temporal species turnover throughout the stream continuum (NDM, SCM), higher turnover upstream (IAM, ESM), or higher turnover downstream (ASM). We calculated measures of spatial and temporal variation from spatiotemporal fish data in five wadeable streams in central and eastern North America spanning 34–68 years (French Creek [New York], Piasa Creek [Illinois], Spruce Run [Virginia], Little Stony Creek [Virginia], and Sinking Creek [Virginia]). All streams exhibited substantial species turnover (i.e., at least 27% turnover in stream-scale species pools), in contrast to the predictions of the SCM. Furthermore, community change was greater in downstream than upstream reaches in four of five streams. This result is most consistent with the ASM and suggests that downstream communities are strongly influenced by migrants to and from species pools outside the focal stream. In Sinking Creek, which is isolated from external species pools, temporal species turnover (via increased richness) was higher upstream than downstream, which is a pattern most consistent with the IAM or ESM. These results corroborate the hypothesis that temperate stream habitats and fish communities are temporally dynamic and that fish migration and environmental disturbances play fundamental roles in stream fish community organization.

Diversity, Adaptability and Ecosystem Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keribin, Rozenn; Friend, Andrew

2013-04-01

Our ability to predict climate change and anticipate its impacts depends on Earth System Models (ESMs) and their ability to account for the high number of interacting components of the Earth System and to gauge both their influence on the climate and the feedbacks they induce. The land carbon cycle is a component of ESMs that is still poorly constrained. Since the 1990s dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have become the main tool through which we understand the interactions between plant ecosystems and the climate. While DGVMs have made it clear the impacts of climate change on vegetation could be dramatic, predicting the dieback of rainforests and massive carbon losses from various ecosystems, they are highly variable both in their composition and their predictions. Their treatment of plant diversity and competition in particular vary widely and are based on highly-simplified relationships that do not account for the multiple levels of diversity and adaptability found in real plant ecosystems. The aim of this GREENCYCLES II project is to extend an individual-based DGVM to treat the diversity of physiologies found in plant communities and evaluate their effect if any on the ecosystem's transient dynamics and resilience. In the context of the InterSectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), an initiative coordinated by a team at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) that aims to provide fast-track global impact assessments for the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, we compare 6 vegetation models including 4 DGVMs under different climate change scenarios and analyse how the very different treatments of plant diversity and interactions from one model to the next affect the models' results. We then investigate a new, more mechanistic method of incorporating plant diversity into the DGVM "Hybrid" based on ecological tradeoffs mediated by plant traits and individual-based competition for light.

A satellite simulator for TRMM PR applied to climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spangehl, T.; Schroeder, M.; Bodas-Salcedo, A.; Hollmann, R.; Riley Dellaripa, E. M.; Schumacher, C.

2017-12-01

Climate model simulations have to be compared against observation based datasets in order to assess their skill in representing precipitation characteristics. Here we use a satellite simulator for TRMM PR in order to evaluate simulations performed with MPI-ESM (Earth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany) performed within the MiKlip project (https://www.fona-miklip.de/, funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research in Germany). While classical evaluation methods focus on geophysical parameters such as precipitation amounts, the application of the satellite simulator enables an evaluation in the instrument's parameter space thereby reducing uncertainties on the reference side. The CFMIP Observation Simulator Package (COSP) provides a framework for the application of satellite simulators to climate model simulations. The approach requires the introduction of sub-grid cloud and precipitation variability. Radar reflectivities are obtained by applying Mie theory, with the microphysical assumptions being chosen to match the atmosphere component of MPI-ESM (ECHAM6). The results are found to be sensitive to the methods used to distribute the convective precipitation over the sub-grid boxes. Simple parameterization methods are used to introduce sub-grid variability of convective clouds and precipitation. In order to constrain uncertainties a comprehensive comparison with sub-grid scale convective precipitation variability which is deduced from TRMM PR observations is carried out.

Experience-Sampling Methodology with a Mobile Device in Fibromyalgia

PubMed Central

Diana, Castilla; Cristina, Botella; Azucena, García-Palacios; Luis, Farfallini; Ignacio, Miralles

2012-01-01

This work describes the usability studies conducted in the development of an experience-sampling methodology (ESM) system running in a mobile device. The goal of the system is to improve the accuracy and ecology in gathering daily self-report data in individuals suffering a chronic pain condition, fibromyalgia. The usability studies showed that the developed software to conduct ESM with mobile devices (smartphones, cell phones) can be successfully used by individuals with fibromyalgia of different ages and with low level of expertise in the use of information and communication technologies. 100% of users completed the tasks successfully, although some have completely illiterate. Also there seems to be a clear difference in the way of interaction obtained in the two studies carried out. PMID:23304132

Simulation and Projection of the Western Pacific Subtropical High by CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.

2016-12-01

This work examined the performance of 26 coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in the simulation of the present-day temporal variability and spatial pattern of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). The results show that most models are able to capture the spatial distribution and variability of the 500-hPa geopotential height and zonal wind fields in the western subtropical Pacific, with the underestimation of the mean intensities of WPSH. The underestimation may be associated with the cold bias of sea surface temperature in the tropical Indian and western Pacific oceans in the models. To eliminate the impact of the climatology biases, the climatology of these models is replaced by that of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis in the verification. It is noted that on interdecadal timescales, the models reproduce the shift of WPSH with enhancement and westward extension after the late 1970s. According to assessment of the simulations of the WPSH indices, it is found that some models (CNRM-CM5, FGOALS-g2, FIO-ESM, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-P) are better than others in simulating WPSH. Then, the ensemble mean of these better models are used to project the future changes of WPSH under three typical representation concentration pathway scenarios (RCP8.5, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6). It is suggested that the WPSH enlarges and strengthens, and its position extends westward under the scenarios, with the largest linear growth trend in RCP8.5, smallest in RCP2.6, and in between in RCP4.5; while the ridge line of WPSH does not show obvious long-term trend. These results may have implications for the attribution and prediction of climate variations and changes in East Asia.

Mean-state SST Response to global warming caused by the ENSO Nonlinearity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohyama, T.; Hartmann, D. L.

2017-12-01

The majority of the models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) exhibit El Niño-like trends under global warming. GFDL-ESM2M, however, is an exception that exhibits a La Niña-like response with strengthened trade winds. Our previous studies have shown that this La Niña-like trend could be a physically consistent warming response, and we proposed the Nonlinear ENSO Warming Suppression (NEWS) mechanism to explain this La Niña-like response to global warming. The most important necessary condition of NEWS is the ENSO skewness (El Niños are stronger than La Niñas). Most CMIP5 models do not reproduce the observed ENSO skewness, while GFDL-ESM2M exhibits the realistic ENSO skewness, which suggests that, despite being in the minority, the La Niña-like trend of GFDL-ESM2M could be a plausible equatorial Pacific response to warming. In this study, we introduce another interesting outlier, MIROC5, which reproduces the observed skewness, yet exhibits an El Niño-like response. By decomposing the source of the ENSO nonlinearity into the following three components: "SST anomalies modulate winds", "winds excite oceanic waves", and "oceanic waves modulate the subsurface temperature", we show that the large inter-model spread of the third component appears to explain the most important cause of the poor reproducibility of the ENSO nonlinearity in CMIP5 models. It is concluded that the change in the response of subsurface temperature to oceanic waves is the primary explanation for the different warming response of GFDL-ESM2M and MIROC5. Our analyses suggest that the difference of the warming response are caused by difference in the climatological thermal stratification. This study may shed new light on the fundamental question of why observed ENSO has a strong skewness and on the implications of this skewed ENSO for the mean-state sea surface temperature response to global warming.

Inclusion of ecologically based trait variation in plant functional types reduces the projected land carbon sink in an earth system model.

PubMed

Verheijen, Lieneke M; Aerts, Rien; Brovkin, Victor; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Kattge, Jens; van Bodegom, Peter M

2015-08-01

Earth system models demonstrate large uncertainty in projected changes in terrestrial carbon budgets. The lack of inclusion of adaptive responses of vegetation communities to the environment has been suggested to hamper the ability of modeled vegetation to adequately respond to environmental change. In this study, variation in functional responses of vegetation has been added to an earth system model (ESM) based on ecological principles. The restriction of viable mean trait values of vegetation communities by the environment, called 'habitat filtering', is an important ecological assembly rule and allows for determination of global scale trait-environment relationships. These relationships were applied to model trait variation for different plant functional types (PFTs). For three leaf traits (specific leaf area, maximum carboxylation rate at 25 °C, and maximum electron transport rate at 25 °C), relationships with multiple environmental drivers, such as precipitation, temperature, radiation, and CO2 , were determined for the PFTs within the Max Planck Institute ESM. With these relationships, spatiotemporal variation in these formerly fixed traits in PFTs was modeled in global change projections (IPCC RCP8.5 scenario). Inclusion of this environment-driven trait variation resulted in a strong reduction of the global carbon sink by at least 33% (2.1 Pg C yr(-1) ) from the 2nd quarter of the 21st century onward compared to the default model with fixed traits. In addition, the mid- and high latitudes became a stronger carbon sink and the tropics a stronger carbon source, caused by trait-induced differences in productivity and relative respirational costs. These results point toward a reduction of the global carbon sink when including a more realistic representation of functional vegetation responses, implying more carbon will stay airborne, which could fuel further climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Effect of Mission Location on Mission Costs and Equivalent System Mass

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, John W.; Levri, Julie A.; Jones, Harry W.

2003-01-01

Equivalent System Mass (ESM) is used by the Advanced Life Support (ALS) community to quantify mission costs of technologies for space applications (Drysdale et al, 1999, Levri et al, 2000). Mass is used as a cost measure because the mass of an object determines propulsion (acceleration) cost (i.e. amount of fuel needed), and costs relating to propulsion dominate mission cost. Mission location drives mission cost because acceleration is typically required to initiate and complete a change in location. Total mission costs may be reduced by minimizing the mass of materials that must be propelled to each distinct location. In order to minimize fuel requirements for missions beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO), the hardware and astronauts may not all go to the same location. For example, on a Lunar or Mars mission, some of the hardware or astronauts may stay in orbit while the rest of the hardware and astronauts descend to the planetary surface. In addition, there may be disposal of waste or used hardware at various mission locations to avoid propulsion of mass that is no longer needed in the mission. This paper demonstrates how using location factors in the calculation of ESM can account for the effects of various acceleration events and can improve the accuracy and value of the ESM metric to mission planners. Even a mission with one location can benefit from location factor analysis if the alternative technologies under consideration consume resources at different rates. For example, a mission that regenerates resources will have a relatively constant mass compared to one that uses consumables and vents/discards mass along the way. This paper shows examples of how location factors can affect ESM calculations and how the inclusion of location factors can change the relative value of technologies being considered for development.

From Tomography to Material Properties of Thermal Protection Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mansour, Nagi N.; Panerai, Francesco; Ferguson, Joseph C.; Borner, Arnaud; Barnhardt, Michael; Wright, Michael

2017-01-01

A NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) effort, under the Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) project, aims at developing micro-tomography (micro-CT) experiments and simulations for studying materials used in hypersonic entry systems. X-ray micro-tomography allows for non-destructive 3D imaging of a materials micro-structure at the sub-micron scale, providing fiber-scale representations of porous thermal protection systems (TPS) materials. The technique has also allowed for In-situ experiments that can resolve response phenomena under realistic environmental conditions such as high temperature, mechanical loads, and oxidizing atmospheres. Simulation tools have been developed at the NASA Ames Research Center to determine material properties and material response from the high-fidelity tomographic representations of the porous materials with the goal of informing macroscopic TPS response models and guiding future TPS design.

Impacts of future radiation management scenarios on terrestrial carbon dynamics simulated with fully coupled NorESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekici, Altug; Tjiputra, Jerry; Grini, Alf; Muri, Helene

2017-04-01

We have simulated 3 different radiation management geoengineering methods (CCT - cirrus cloud thinning; SAI - stratospheric aerosol injection; MSB - marine sky brightening) on top of future RCP8.5 scenario with the fully coupled Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). A globally consistent cooling in both atmosphere and soil is observed with all methods. However, precipitation patterns are dependent on the used method. Globally CCT and MSB methods do not affect the vegetation carbon budget, while SAI leads to a loss compared to RCP8.5 simulations. Spatially the most sensitive region is the tropics. Here, the changes in vegetation carbon content are related to the precipitation changes. Increase in soil carbon is projected in all three methods, the biggest change seen in SAI method. Simulations with CCT method leads to twice as much soil carbon retention in the tropics compared to the MSB method. Our findings show that there are unforeseen regional consequences of such geoengineering methods in the biogeochemical cycles and they should be considered with care in future climate policies.

Spatial sound field synthesis and upmixing based on the equivalent source method.

PubMed

Bai, Mingsian R; Hsu, Hoshen; Wen, Jheng-Ciang

2014-01-01

Given scarce number of recorded signals, spatial sound field synthesis with an extended sweet spot is a challenging problem in acoustic array signal processing. To address the problem, a synthesis and upmixing approach inspired by the equivalent source method (ESM) is proposed. The synthesis procedure is based on the pressure signals recorded by a microphone array and requires no source model. The array geometry can also be arbitrary. Four upmixing strategies are adopted to enhance the resolution of the reproduced sound field when there are more channels of loudspeakers than the microphones. Multi-channel inverse filtering with regularization is exploited to deal with the ill-posedness in the reconstruction process. The distance between the microphone and loudspeaker arrays is optimized to achieve the best synthesis quality. To validate the proposed system, numerical simulations and subjective listening experiments are performed. The results demonstrated that all upmixing methods improved the quality of reproduced target sound field over the original reproduction. In particular, the underdetermined ESM interpolation method yielded the best spatial sound field synthesis in terms of the reproduction error, timbral quality, and spatial quality.

Quantifying the biological impact of surface ocean light attenuation by colored detrital matter in an ESM using a new optical parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, G. E.; Pradal, M.-A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2015-08-01

Light attenuation by colored detrital material (CDM) was included in a fully coupled Earth system model (ESM). This study presents a modified parameterization for shortwave attenuation, which is an empirical relationship between 244 concurrent measurements of the diffuse attenuation coefficient for downwelling irradiance, chlorophyll concentration and light absorption by CDM. Two ESM model runs using this parameterization were conducted, with and without light absorption by CDM. The light absorption coefficient for CDM was prescribed as the average of annual composite MODIS Aqua satellite data from 2002 to 2013. Comparing results from the two model runs shows that changes in light limitation associated with the inclusion of CDM decoupled trends between surface biomass and nutrients. Increases in surface biomass were expected to accompany greater nutrient uptake and therefore diminish surface nutrients. Instead, surface chlorophyll, biomass and nutrients increased together. These changes can be attributed to the different impact of light limitation on surface productivity versus total productivity. Chlorophyll and biomass increased near the surface but decreased at greater depths when CDM was included. The net effect over the euphotic zone was less total biomass leading to higher nutrient concentrations. Similar results were found in a regional analysis of the oceans by biome, investigating the spatial variability of response to changes in light limitation using a single parameterization for the surface ocean. In coastal regions, surface chlorophyll increased by 35 % while total integrated phytoplankton biomass diminished by 18 %. The largest relative increases in modeled surface chlorophyll and biomass in the open ocean were found in the equatorial biomes, while the largest decreases in depth-integrated biomass and chlorophyll were found in the subpolar and polar biomes. This mismatch of surface and subsurface trends and their regional dependence was analyzed by comparing the competing factors of diminished light availability and increased nutrient availability on phytoplankton growth in the upper 200 m. Understanding changes in biological productivity requires both surface and depth-resolved information. Surface trends may be minimal or of the opposite sign than depth-integrated amounts, depending on the vertical structure of phytoplankton abundance.

Predicting dense nonaqueous phase liquid dissolution using a simplified source depletion model parameterized with partitioning tracers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, Nandita B.; Fure, Adrian D.; Jawitz, James W.

2008-07-01

Simulations of nonpartitioning and partitioning tracer tests were used to parameterize the equilibrium stream tube model (ESM) that predicts the dissolution dynamics of dense nonaqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) as a function of the Lagrangian properties of DNAPL source zones. Lagrangian, or stream-tube-based, approaches characterize source zones with as few as two trajectory-integrated parameters, in contrast to the potentially thousands of parameters required to describe the point-by-point variability in permeability and DNAPL in traditional Eulerian modeling approaches. The spill and subsequent dissolution of DNAPLs were simulated in two-dimensional domains having different hydrologic characteristics (variance of the log conductivity field = 0.2, 1, and 3) using the multiphase flow and transport simulator UTCHEM. Nonpartitioning and partitioning tracers were used to characterize the Lagrangian properties (travel time and trajectory-integrated DNAPL content statistics) of DNAPL source zones, which were in turn shown to be sufficient for accurate prediction of source dissolution behavior using the ESM throughout the relatively broad range of hydraulic conductivity variances tested here. The results were found to be relatively insensitive to travel time variability, suggesting that dissolution could be accurately predicted even if the travel time variance was only coarsely estimated. Estimation of the ESM parameters was also demonstrated using an approximate technique based on Eulerian data in the absence of tracer data; however, determining the minimum amount of such data required remains for future work. Finally, the stream tube model was shown to be a more unique predictor of dissolution behavior than approaches based on the ganglia-to-pool model for source zone characterization.

Development of a hybrid 3-D hydrological model to simulate hillslopes and the regional unconfined aquifer system in Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazenberg, P.; Broxton, P. D.; Brunke, M.; Gochis, D.; Niu, G. Y.; Pelletier, J. D.; Troch, P. A. A.; Zeng, X.

2015-12-01

The terrestrial hydrological system, including surface and subsurface water, is an essential component of the Earth's climate system. Over the past few decades, land surface modelers have built one-dimensional (1D) models resolving the vertical flow of water through the soil column for use in Earth system models (ESMs). These models generally have a relatively coarse model grid size (~25-100 km) and only account for sub-grid lateral hydrological variations using simple parameterization schemes. At the same time, hydrologists have developed detailed high-resolution (~0.1-10 km grid size) three dimensional (3D) models and showed the importance of accounting for the vertical and lateral redistribution of surface and subsurface water on soil moisture, the surface energy balance and ecosystem dynamics on these smaller scales. However, computational constraints have limited the implementation of the high-resolution models for continental and global scale applications. The current work presents a hybrid-3D hydrological approach is presented, where the 1D vertical soil column model (available in many ESMs) is coupled with a high-resolution lateral flow model (h2D) to simulate subsurface flow and overland flow. H2D accounts for both local-scale hillslope and regional-scale unconfined aquifer responses (i.e. riparian zone and wetlands). This approach was shown to give comparable results as those obtained by an explicit 3D Richards model for the subsurface, but improves runtime efficiency considerably. The h3D approach is implemented for the Delaware river basin, where Noah-MP land surface model (LSM) is used to calculated vertical energy and water exchanges with the atmosphere using a 10km grid resolution. Noah-MP was coupled within the WRF-Hydro infrastructure with the lateral 1km grid resolution h2D model, for which the average depth-to-bedrock, hillslope width function and soil parameters were estimated from digital datasets. The ability of this h3D approach to simulate the hydrological dynamics of the Delaware River basin will be assessed by comparing the model results (both hydrological performance and numerical efficiency) with the standard setup of the NOAH-MP model and a high-resolution (1km) version of NOAH-MP, which also explicitly accounts for lateral subsurface and overland flow.

Towards Better Simulation of US Maize Yield Responses to Climate in the Community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, B.; Guan, K.; Chen, M.; Lawrence, D. M.; Jin, Z.; Bernacchi, C.; Ainsworth, E. A.; DeLucia, E. H.; Lombardozzi, D. L.; Lu, Y.

2017-12-01

Global food security is undergoing continuing pressure from increased population and climate change despites the potential advancement in breeding and management technologies. Earth system models (ESMs) are essential tools to study the impacts of historical and future climate on regional and global food production, as well as to assess the effectiveness of possible adaptations and their potential feedback to climate. Here we developed an improved maize representation within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) by combining the strengths of both the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) models. Specifically, we modified the maize planting scheme, incorporated the phenology scheme adopted from the APSIM model, added a new carbon allocation scheme into CLM4.5, and improved the estimation of canopy structure parameters including leaf area index (LAI) and canopy height. Unique features of the new model (CLM-APSIM) include more detailed phenology stages, an explicit implementation of the impacts of various abiotic environmental stresses (including nitrogen, water, temperature and heat stresses) on maize phenology and carbon allocation, as well as an explicit simulation of grain number and grain size. We conducted a regional simulation of this new model over the US Corn Belt during 1990 to 2010. The simulated maize yield as well as its responses to climate (growing season mean temperature and precipitation) are benchmarked with data from UADA NASS statistics. Our results show that the CLM-APSIM model outperforms the CLM4.5 in simulating county-level maize yield production and reproduces more realistic yield responses to climate variations than CLM4.5. However, some critical processes (such as crop failure due to frost and inundation and suboptimal growth condition due to biotic stresses) are still missing in both CLM-APSIM and CLM4.5, making the simulated yield responses to climate slightly deviate from the reality. Our results demonstrate that with improved paramterization of crop growth, the ESMs can be powerful tools for realistically simulating agricultural production, which is gaining increasing interests and critical to study of global food security and food-energy-water nexus.

Projections of leaf area index in earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahowald, Natalie; Lo, Fiona; Zheng, Yun; Harrison, Laura; Funk, Chris; Lombardozzi, Danica; Goodale, Christine

2016-03-01

The area of leaves in the plant canopy, measured as leaf area index (LAI), modulates key land-atmosphere interactions, including the exchange of energy, moisture, carbon dioxide (CO2), and other trace gases and aerosols, and is therefore an essential variable in predicting terrestrial carbon, water, and energy fluxes. Here our goal is to characterize the LAI projections from the latest generation of earth system models (ESMs) for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. On average, the models project increases in LAI in both RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 over most of the globe, but also show decreases in some parts of the tropics. Because of projected increases in variability, there are also more frequent periods of low LAI across broad regions of the tropics. Projections of LAI changes varied greatly among models: some models project very modest changes, while others project large changes, usually increases. Modeled LAI typically increases with modeled warming in the high latitudes, but often decreases with increasing local warming in the tropics. The models with the most skill in simulating current LAI in the tropics relative to satellite observations tend to project smaller increases in LAI in the tropics in the future compared to the average of all the models. Using LAI projections to identify regions that may be vulnerable to climate change presents a slightly different picture than using precipitation projections, suggesting LAI may be an additional useful tool for understanding climate change impacts. Going forward, users of LAI projections from the CMIP5 ESMs evaluated here should be aware that model outputs do not exhibit clear-cut relationships to vegetation carbon and precipitation. Our findings underscore the need for more attention to LAI projections, in terms of understanding the drivers of projected changes and improvements to model skill.

Projections of leaf area index in earth system models

DOE PAGES

Mahowald, Natalie; Lo, Fiona; Zheng, Yun; ...

2016-03-09

The area of leaves in the plant canopy, measured as leaf area index (LAI), modulates key land–atmosphere interactions, including the exchange of energy, moisture, carbon dioxide (CO 2), and other trace gases and aerosols, and is therefore an essential variable in predicting terrestrial carbon, water, and energy fluxes. Here our goal is to characterize the LAI projections from the latest generation of earth system models (ESMs) for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. On average, the models project increases in LAI in both RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 over most of the globe, but also show decreases in somemore » parts of the tropics. Because of projected increases in variability, there are also more frequent periods of low LAI across broad regions of the tropics. Projections of LAI changes varied greatly among models: some models project very modest changes, while others project large changes, usually increases. Modeled LAI typically increases with modeled warming in the high latitudes, but often decreases with increasing local warming in the tropics. The models with the most skill in simulating current LAI in the tropics relative to satellite observations tend to project smaller increases in LAI in the tropics in the future compared to the average of all the models. Using LAI projections to identify regions that may be vulnerable to climate change presents a slightly different picture than using precipitation projections, suggesting LAI may be an additional useful tool for understanding climate change impacts. Going forward, users of LAI projections from the CMIP5 ESMs evaluated here should be aware that model outputs do not exhibit clear-cut relationships to vegetation carbon and precipitation. Lastly, our findings underscore the need for more attention to LAI projections, in terms of understanding the drivers of projected changes and improvements to model skill.« less

Understanding the Dynamics of Soil Carbon in CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todd-Brown, K. E.; Luo, Y.; Randerson, J. T.; Allison, S. D.; Smith, M. J.

2014-12-01

Soil carbon stocks have the potential to be a strong source or sink for carbon dioxide over the next century, playing a critical role in climate change. These stocks are the result of small differences between much larger primary carbon fluxes: gross primary production, litter fall, autotrophic respiration and heterotrophic respiration. There was little agreement on predicted soil carbon stocks between Earth system models (ESMs) in the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project. Predicted present-day stocks ranged from roughly 500 Pg to over 3000 Pg and predicted changes over the 21st century ranged from -70 Pg to +250 Pg). The primary goal of this study was to understand why such large differences exist. We constructed four reduced complexity models to describe the primary carbon fluxes, making different assumptions about how soil carbon fluxes are modelled in ESMs. For each of these reduced complexity models we statistically inferred the most likely model parameters given the gridded ESM simulation outputs. Gross primary production was best explained by incoming short wave radiation, CO2 concentration, and leaf area index (global GPP comparison of simulation vs reduced complexity model of R2>0.9 (p < 1e-4) with slopes between 0.65 and 1.2 and intercepts between -13 and 67 Pg C yr-1). Autotrophic respiration was best explained as a proportion of GPP (R2 > 0.9 (p < 1e-4) with slopes between 0.78 and 1.1 and intercepts between -15 and 14 Pg C yr-1). Flux between the vegetation and soil pools were best explained as a proportion of the vegetation carbon stock (R2 > 0.9 (p < 1e-4) with slopes between 0.9 and 2.1 and intercepts between -65 and 25 Pg C yr-1). Finally heterotrophic respiration was best explained as a function of soil carbon stocks and soil temperature (R2 > 0.9 (p < 1e-4) with slopes between 0.7 and 1.5 and intercepts between -40 and 15 Pg C yr-1). This research suggests three main lines of decomposition model improvement: 1) improve connecting sub-models, 2) data integration to improve parameterization, 3) modification of model structure. The implied variation in RCM parameterization suggests that data integration could constrain model simulation results. However, the similarity in model structure may lead to systematic biases in the simulations without the introduction of new model structures.

Experience sampling methodology in mental health research: new insights and technical developments

PubMed Central

Myin‐Germeys, Inez; Kasanova, Zuzana; Vaessen, Thomas; Vachon, Hugo; Kirtley, Olivia; Viechtbauer, Wolfgang; Reininghaus, Ulrich

2018-01-01

In the mental health field, there is a growing awareness that the study of psychiatric symptoms in the context of everyday life, using experience sampling methodology (ESM), may provide a powerful and necessary addition to more conventional research approaches. ESM, a structured self‐report diary technique, allows the investigation of experiences within, and in interaction with, the real‐world context. This paper provides an overview of how zooming in on the micro‐level of experience and behaviour using ESM adds new insights and additional perspectives to standard approaches. More specifically, it discusses how ESM: a) contributes to a deeper understanding of psychopathological phenomena, b) allows to capture variability over time, c) aids in identifying internal and situational determinants of variability in symptomatology, and d) enables a thorough investigation of the interaction between the person and his/her environment and of real‐life social interactions. Next to improving assessment of psychopathology and its underlying mechanisms, ESM contributes to advancing and changing clinical practice by allowing a more fine‐grained evaluation of treatment effects as well as by providing the opportunity for extending treatment beyond the clinical setting into real life with the development of ecological momentary interventions. Furthermore, this paper provides an overview of the technical details of setting up an ESM study in terms of design, questionnaire development and statistical approaches. Overall, although a number of considerations and challenges remain, ESM offers one of the best opportunities for personalized medicine in psychiatry, from both a research and a clinical perspective. PMID:29856567

Experience sampling methodology in mental health research: new insights and technical developments.

PubMed

Myin-Germeys, Inez; Kasanova, Zuzana; Vaessen, Thomas; Vachon, Hugo; Kirtley, Olivia; Viechtbauer, Wolfgang; Reininghaus, Ulrich

2018-06-01

In the mental health field, there is a growing awareness that the study of psychiatric symptoms in the context of everyday life, using experience sampling methodology (ESM), may provide a powerful and necessary addition to more conventional research approaches. ESM, a structured self-report diary technique, allows the investigation of experiences within, and in interaction with, the real-world context. This paper provides an overview of how zooming in on the micro-level of experience and behaviour using ESM adds new insights and additional perspectives to standard approaches. More specifically, it discusses how ESM: a) contributes to a deeper understanding of psychopathological phenomena, b) allows to capture variability over time, c) aids in identifying internal and situational determinants of variability in symptomatology, and d) enables a thorough investigation of the interaction between the person and his/her environment and of real-life social interactions. Next to improving assessment of psychopathology and its underlying mechanisms, ESM contributes to advancing and changing clinical practice by allowing a more fine-grained evaluation of treatment effects as well as by providing the opportunity for extending treatment beyond the clinical setting into real life with the development of ecological momentary interventions. Furthermore, this paper provides an overview of the technical details of setting up an ESM study in terms of design, questionnaire development and statistical approaches. Overall, although a number of considerations and challenges remain, ESM offers one of the best opportunities for personalized medicine in psychiatry, from both a research and a clinical perspective. © 2018 World Psychiatric Association.

Merging a mechanistic enzymatic model of soil heterotrophic respiration into an ecosystem model in two AmeriFlux sites of northeastern USA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sihi, Debjani; Davidson, Eric A.; Chen, Min

Heterotrophic respiration (Rh), microbial processing of soil organic matter to carbon dioxide (CO 2), is a major, yet highly uncertain, carbon (C) flux from terrestrial systems to the atmosphere. Temperature sensitivity of Rh is often represented with a simple Q 10 function in ecosystem models and earth system models (ESMs), sometimes accompanied by an empirical soil moisture modifier. More explicit representation of the effects of soil moisture, substrate supply, and their interactions with temperature has been proposed as a way to disentangle the confounding factors of apparent temperature sensitivity of Rh and improve the performance of ecosystem models and ESMs.more » The objective of this work was to insert into an ecosystem model a more mechanistic, but still parsimonious, model of environmental factors controlling Rh and evaluate the model performance in terms of soil and ecosystem respiration. The Dual Arrhenius and Michaelis-Menten (DAMM) model simulates Rh using Michaelis-Menten, Arrhenius, and diffusion functions. Soil moisture affects Rh and its apparent temperature sensitivity in DAMM by regulating the diffusion of oxygen, soluble C substrates, and extracellular enzymes to the enzymatic reaction site. Here, we merged the DAMM soil flux model with a parsimonious ecosystem flux model, FöBAAR (Forest Biomass, Assimilation, Allocation and Respiration). We used high-frequency soil flux data from automated soil chambers and landscape-scale ecosystem fluxes from eddy covariance towers at two AmeriFlux sites (Harvard Forest, MA and Howland Forest, ME) in the northeastern USA to estimate parameters, validate the merged model, and to quantify the uncertainties in a multiple constraints approach. The optimized DAMM-FöBAAR model better captured the seasonal and inter-annual dynamics of soil respiration (Soil R) compared to the FöBAAR-only model for the Harvard Forest, where higher frequency and duration of drying events significantly regulate substrate supply to heterotrophs. However, DAMM-FöBAAR showed improvement over FöBAAR-only at the boreal transition Howland Forest only in unusually dry years. The frequency of synoptic-scale dry periods is lower at Howland, resulting in only brief water limitation of Rh in some years. At both sites, the declining trend of soil R during drying events was captured by the DAMM-FöBAAR model; however, model performance was also contingent on site conditions, climate, and the temporal scale of interest. While the DAMM functions require a few more parameters than a simple Q10 function, we have demonstrated that they can be included in an ecosystem model and reduce the model-data mismatch. Moreover, the mechanistic structure of the soil moisture effects using DAMM functions should be more generalizable than the wide variety of empirical functions that are commonly used, and these DAMM functions could be readily incorporated into other ecosystem models and ESMs.« less

The Earth System (ES-DOC) Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenslade, Mark; Murphy, Sylvia; Treshansky, Allyn; DeLuca, Cecilia; Guilyardi, Eric; Denvil, Sebastien

2014-05-01

ESSI1.3 New Paradigms, Modelling, and International Collaboration Strategies for Earth System Sciences Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) is an international project supplying tools & services in support of earth system documentation creation, analysis and dissemination. It is nurturing a sustainable standards based documentation eco-system that aims to become an integral part of the next generation of exa-scale dataset archives. ES-DOC leverages open source software and places end-user narratives at the heart of all it does. ES-DOC has initially focused upon nurturing the Earth System Model (ESM) documentation eco-system. Within this context ES-DOC leverages emerging documentation standards and supports the following projects: Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5); Dynamical Core Model Inter-comparison Project (DCMIP); National Climate Predictions and Projections Platforms Quantitative Evaluation of Downscaling Workshop. This presentation will introduce the project to a wider audience and demonstrate the range of tools and services currently available for use. It will also demonstrate how international collaborative efforts are essential to the success of ES-DOC.

Constructing a Reward-Related Quality of Life Statistic in Daily Life—a Proof of Concept Study Using Positive Affect

PubMed Central

Verhagen, Simone J. W.; Simons, Claudia J. P.; van Zelst, Catherine; Delespaul, Philippe A. E. G.

2017-01-01

Background: Mental healthcare needs person-tailored interventions. Experience Sampling Method (ESM) can provide daily life monitoring of personal experiences. This study aims to operationalize and test a measure of momentary reward-related Quality of Life (rQoL). Intuitively, quality of life improves by spending more time on rewarding experiences. ESM clinical interventions can use this information to coach patients to find a realistic, optimal balance of positive experiences (maximize reward) in daily life. rQoL combines the frequency of engaging in a relevant context (a ‘behavior setting’) with concurrent (positive) affect. High rQoL occurs when the most frequent behavior settings are combined with positive affect or infrequent behavior settings co-occur with low positive affect. Methods: Resampling procedures (Monte Carlo experiments) were applied to assess the reliability of rQoL using various behavior setting definitions under different sampling circumstances, for real or virtual subjects with low-, average- and high contextual variability. Furthermore, resampling was used to assess whether rQoL is a distinct concept from positive affect. Virtual ESM beep datasets were extracted from 1,058 valid ESM observations for virtual and real subjects. Results: Behavior settings defined by Who-What contextual information were most informative. Simulations of at least 100 ESM observations are needed for reliable assessment. Virtual ESM beep datasets of a real subject can be defined by Who-What-Where behavior setting combinations. Large sample sizes are necessary for reliable rQoL assessments, except for subjects with low contextual variability. rQoL is distinct from positive affect. Conclusion: rQoL is a feasible concept. Monte Carlo experiments should be used to assess the reliable implementation of an ESM statistic. Future research in ESM should asses the behavior of summary statistics under different sampling situations. This exploration is especially relevant in clinical implementation, where often only small datasets are available. PMID:29163294

Economic evaluation of an experience sampling method intervention in depression compared with treatment as usual using data from a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Simons, Claudia J P; Drukker, Marjan; Evers, Silvia; van Mastrigt, Ghislaine A P G; Höhn, Petra; Kramer, Ingrid; Peeters, Frenk; Delespaul, Philippe; Menne-Lothmann, Claudia; Hartmann, Jessica A; van Os, Jim; Wichers, Marieke

2017-12-29

Experience sampling, a method for real-time self-monitoring of affective experiences, holds opportunities for person-tailored treatment. By focussing on dynamic patterns of positive affect, experience sampling method interventions (ESM-I) accommodate strategies to enhance personalized treatment of depression-at potentially low-costs. This study aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of an experience sampling method intervention in patients with depression, from a societal perspective. Participants were recruited between January 2010 and February 2012 from out-patient mental health care facilities in or near the Dutch cities of Eindhoven and Maastricht, and through local advertisements. Out-patients diagnosed with major depression (n = 101) receiving pharmacotherapy were randomized into: (i) ESM-I consisting of six weeks of ESM combined with weekly feedback regarding the individual's positive affective experiences, (ii) six weeks of ESM without feedback, or (iii) treatment as usual only. Alongside this randomised controlled trial, an economic evaluation was conducted consisting of a cost-effectiveness and a cost-utility analysis, using Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS) and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) as outcome, with willingness-to-pay threshold for a QALY set at €50,000 (based on Dutch guidelines for moderate severe to severe illnesses). The economic evaluation showed that ESM-I is an optimal strategy only when willingness to pay is around €3000 per unit HDRS and around €40,500 per QALY. ESM-I was the least favourable treatment when willingness to pay was lower than €30,000 per QALY. However, at the €50,000 willingness-to-pay threshold, ESM-I was, with a 46% probability, the most favourable treatment (base-case analysis). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these results. We may tentatively conclude that ESM-I is a cost-effective add-on intervention to pharmacotherapy in outpatients with major depression. Netherlands Trial register, NTR1974 .

Constructing a Reward-Related Quality of Life Statistic in Daily Life-a Proof of Concept Study Using Positive Affect.

PubMed

Verhagen, Simone J W; Simons, Claudia J P; van Zelst, Catherine; Delespaul, Philippe A E G

2017-01-01

Background: Mental healthcare needs person-tailored interventions. Experience Sampling Method (ESM) can provide daily life monitoring of personal experiences. This study aims to operationalize and test a measure of momentary reward-related Quality of Life (rQoL). Intuitively, quality of life improves by spending more time on rewarding experiences. ESM clinical interventions can use this information to coach patients to find a realistic, optimal balance of positive experiences (maximize reward) in daily life. rQoL combines the frequency of engaging in a relevant context (a 'behavior setting') with concurrent (positive) affect. High rQoL occurs when the most frequent behavior settings are combined with positive affect or infrequent behavior settings co-occur with low positive affect. Methods: Resampling procedures (Monte Carlo experiments) were applied to assess the reliability of rQoL using various behavior setting definitions under different sampling circumstances, for real or virtual subjects with low-, average- and high contextual variability. Furthermore, resampling was used to assess whether rQoL is a distinct concept from positive affect. Virtual ESM beep datasets were extracted from 1,058 valid ESM observations for virtual and real subjects. Results: Behavior settings defined by Who-What contextual information were most informative. Simulations of at least 100 ESM observations are needed for reliable assessment. Virtual ESM beep datasets of a real subject can be defined by Who-What-Where behavior setting combinations. Large sample sizes are necessary for reliable rQoL assessments, except for subjects with low contextual variability. rQoL is distinct from positive affect. Conclusion: rQoL is a feasible concept. Monte Carlo experiments should be used to assess the reliable implementation of an ESM statistic. Future research in ESM should asses the behavior of summary statistics under different sampling situations. This exploration is especially relevant in clinical implementation, where often only small datasets are available.

ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MANAGEMENT: TOWARDS A NEW SCIENCE OF SUSTAINABLE ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Environmental Systems Management (ESM) is the management of environmental problems at the systems level fully accounting for the multi-dimensional nature of the environment. This includes socio-economic dimensions as well as the usual physical and life science aspects of environm...

Modeling Climate and Societal Resilience in the Mediterranean During the Last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, S.; Xoplaki, E.; Luterbacher, J.; Zorita, E.; Fleitmann, D.; Preiser-Kapeller, J.; Toreti, A., , Dr; Sargent, A. M.; Bozkurt, D.; White, S.; Haldon, J. F.; Akçer-Ön, S.; Izdebski, A.

2017-12-01

Past civilisations were influenced by complex external and internal forces, including changes in the environment, climate, politics and economy. A geographical hotspot of the interplay between those agents is the Mediterranean, a cradle of cultural and scientific development. We analyse a novel compilation of high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Mediterranean and compare them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for three historical time intervals - the Crusaders, 1095-1290 CE; the Mamluk regime in Transjordan, 1260-1516 CE; and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion, 1580-1610 CE - when environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies. ESMs provide important information on the dynamical mechanisms and underlying processes that led to anomalous hydroclimatic conditions of the past. We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean during the three periods cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. The integrated analysis of palaeoclimate proxies, climate reconstructions and model simulations sheds light on our understanding of past climate change and its societal impact. Finally, our research emphasises the need to further study the societal dimension of environmental and climate change in the past, in order to properly understand the role that climate has played in human history.

A Framework for Multi-Scale, Multi-Disciplinary Arctic Terrestrial Field Research Design, Nomenclature and Data Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charsley-Groffman, L.; Killeffer, T.; Wullschleger, S. D.; Wilson, C. J.

2016-12-01

The Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment, NGEE Arctic, project aims to improve the representation of arctic terrestrial processes and properties in Earth System Models, ESMs, through coordinated multi-disciplinary field-based observations and experiments. NGEE involves nearly one hundred research staff, post docs and students from multiple DOE laboratories and universities who deploy a wide range of in-situ and remote field observation techniques to quantify and understand interactions between the climate system and surface and subsurface coupled thermal-hydrologic, biogeochemical and vegetation processes. Careful attention was given to the design and management of co-located long-term and one off data collection efforts, as well as their data streams. Field research sites at the Barrow Environmental Observatory near Barrow AK and on the Seward Peninsula were designed around the concept of "ecotypes" which co-evolved with readily identified and classified hydro-geomorphic features characteristic of arctic landscapes. NGEE sub-teams focused on 5 unique science questions collaborated to design field sites and develop naming conventions for locations and data types to develop coherent data sets to parameterize, initialize and test a range of site-specific process resolving models to ESMs. Multi-layer mapping products were a critical means of developing a coordinated and coherent observation design, and a centralized data portal and data reporting framework was critical to ensuring meaningful data products for NGEE modelers and Arctic scientific community at large. We present examples of what works and lessons learned for a large multi-disciplinary terrestrial observational research project in the Arctic.

Examination of the Structural Response of the Orion European Service Module to Reverberant and Direct Field Acoustic Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McNelis, Mark E.; Hughes, William O.; Larko, Jeffrey M.; Bittinger, Samantha A.; Le-Plenier, Cyprien; Fogt, Vincent A.; Ngan, Ivan; Thirkettle, Anthony C.; Skinner, Mitch; Larkin, Paul

2017-01-01

The NASA Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV), comprised of the Service Module, the Crew Module, and the Launch Abort System, is the next generation human spacecraft designed and built for deep space exploration. Orion will launch on NASAs new heavy-lift rocket, the Space Launch System. The European Space Agency (ESA) is responsible for providing the propulsion sub-assembly of the Service Module to NASA, called the European Service Module (ESM). The ESM is being designed and built by Airbus Safran Launchers for ESA. Traditionally, NASA has utilized reverberant acoustic testing for qualification of spaceflight hardware. The ESM Structural Test Article (E-STA) was tested at the NASA Plum Brook Stations (PBS) Reverberant Acoustic Test Facility in April-May 2016. However, Orion is evaluating an alternative acoustic test method, using direct field acoustic excitation, for the MPCVs Service Module and Crew Module. Lockheed Martin is responsible for the Orion proof-of-concept direct field acoustic test program. The E-STA was exposed to direct field acoustic testing at NASA PBS in February 2017. This paper compares the dynamic response of the E-STA structure and its components to both the reverberant and direct field acoustic test excitations. Advantages and disadvantages of direct field acoustic test excitation method are discussed.

Human-induced greening of the northern extratropical land surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, J.; Ribes, A.; Yan, B.; Shi, X.; Thornton, P. E.; Seferian, R.; Ciais, P.; Myneni, R. B.; Douville, H.; Piao, S.; Zhu, Z.; Dickinson, R. E.; Dai, Y. J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Jin, M.; Hoffman, F. M.; Wang, B.; Huang, M.; Lian, X.

2016-12-01

Significant land greening in the northern extratropical latitudes (NEL) has been documented through satellite observations during the past three decades. This enhanced vegetation growth has broad implications for surface energy, water and carbon budgets, and ecosystem services across multiple scales. Discernible human impacts on the Earth's climate system have been revealed by using statistical frameworks of detection-attribution. These impacts, however, were not previously identified on the NEL greening signal, owing to the lack of long-term observational records, possible bias of satellite data, different algorithms used to calculate vegetation greenness, and the lack of suitable simulations from coupled Earth system models (ESMs). Here we have overcome these challenges to attribute recent changes in NEL vegetation activity. We used two 30-year-long remote-sensing-based leaf area index (LAI) data sets, simulations from 19 coupled ESMs with interactive vegetation, and a formal detection and attribution algorithm. Our findings reveal that the observed greening record is consistent with an assumption of anthropogenic forcings, where greenhouse gases play a dominant role, but is not consistent with simulations that include only natural forcings and internal climate variability. These results provide the first clear evidence of a discernible human fingerprint on physiological vegetation changes other than phenology and range shifts.

Human-induced greening of the northern extratropical land surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Jiafu; Ribes, Aurélien; Yan, Binyan; Shi, Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter E.; Séférian, Roland; Ciais, Philippe; Myneni, Ranga B.; Douville, Hervé; Piao, Shilong; Zhu, Zaichun; Dickinson, Robert E.; Dai, Yongjiu; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Jin, Mingzhou; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Wang, Bin; Huang, Mengtian; Lian, Xu

2016-10-01

Significant land greening in the northern extratropical latitudes (NEL) has been documented through satellite observations during the past three decades. This enhanced vegetation growth has broad implications for surface energy, water and carbon budgets, and ecosystem services across multiple scales. Discernible human impacts on the Earth's climate system have been revealed by using statistical frameworks of detection-attribution. These impacts, however, were not previously identified on the NEL greening signal, owing to the lack of long-term observational records, possible bias of satellite data, different algorithms used to calculate vegetation greenness, and the lack of suitable simulations from coupled Earth system models (ESMs). Here we have overcome these challenges to attribute recent changes in NEL vegetation activity. We used two 30-year-long remote-sensing-based leaf area index (LAI) data sets, simulations from 19 coupled ESMs with interactive vegetation, and a formal detection and attribution algorithm. Our findings reveal that the observed greening record is consistent with an assumption of anthropogenic forcings, where greenhouse gases play a dominant role, but is not consistent with simulations that include only natural forcings and internal climate variability. These results provide the first clear evidence of a discernible human fingerprint on physiological vegetation changes other than phenology and range shifts.

Prediction of climate change in Brunei Darussalam using statistical downscaling model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Dk. Siti Nurul Ain binti Pg. Ali; Ratnayake, Uditha; Shams, Shahriar; Nayan, Zuliana Binti Hj; Rahman, Ena Kartina Abdul

2017-06-01

Climate is changing and evidence suggests that the impact of climate change would influence our everyday lives, including agriculture, built environment, energy management, food security and water resources. Brunei Darussalam located within the heart of Borneo will be affected both in terms of precipitation and temperature. Therefore, it is crucial to comprehend and assess how important climate indicators like temperature and precipitation are expected to vary in the future in order to minimise its impact. This study assesses the application of a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) for downscaling General Circulation Model (GCM) results for maximum and minimum temperatures along with precipitation in Brunei Darussalam. It investigates future climate changes based on numerous scenarios using Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and third-generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) outputs. The SDSM outputs were improved with the implementation of bias correction and also using a monthly sub-model instead of an annual sub-model. The outcomes of this assessment show that monthly sub-model performed better than the annual sub-model. This study indicates a satisfactory applicability for generation of maximum temperatures, minimum temperatures and precipitation for future periods of 2017-2046 and 2047-2076. All considered models and the scenarios were consistent in predicting increasing trend of maximum temperature, increasing trend of minimum temperature and decreasing trend of precipitations. Maximum overall trend of Tmax was also observed for CanESM2 with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The increasing trend is 0.014 °C per year. Accordingly, by 2076, the highest prediction of average maximum temperatures is that it will increase by 1.4 °C. The same model predicts an increasing trend of Tmin of 0.004 °C per year, while the highest trend is seen under CGCM3-A2 scenario which is 0.009 °C per year. The highest change predicted for the Tmin is therefore 0.9 °C by 2076. The precipitation showed a maximum trend of decrease of 12.7 mm year. It is also seen in the output using CanESM2 data that precipitation will be more chaotic with some reaching 4800 mm per year and also producing low rainfall about 1800 mm per year. All GCMs considered are consistent in predicting it is very likely that Brunei is expected to experience more warming as well as less frequent precipitation events but with a possibility of intensified and drastically high rainfalls in the future.

An integrated crop model and GIS decision support system for assisting agronomic decision making under climate change.

PubMed

Kadiyala, M D M; Nedumaran, S; Singh, Piara; S, Chukka; Irshad, Mohammad A; Bantilan, M C S

2015-07-15

The semi-arid tropical (SAT) regions of India are suffering from low productivity which may be further aggravated by anticipated climate change. The present study analyzes the spatial variability of climate change impacts on groundnut yields in the Anantapur district of India and examines the relative contribution of adaptation strategies. For this purpose, a web based decision support tool that integrates crop simulation model and Geographical Information System (GIS) was developed to assist agronomic decision making and this tool can be scalable to any location and crop. The climate change projections of five global climate models (GCMs) relative to the 1980-2010 baseline for Anantapur district indicates an increase in rainfall activity to the tune of 10.6 to 25% during Mid-century period (2040-69) with RCP 8.5. The GCMs also predict warming exceeding 1.4 to 2.4°C by 2069 in the study region. The spatial crop responses to the projected climate indicate a decrease in groundnut yields with four GCMs (MPI-ESM-MR, MIROC5, CCSM4 and HadGEM2-ES) and a contrasting 6.3% increase with the GCM, GFDL-ESM2M. The simulation studies using CROPGRO-Peanut model reveals that groundnut yields can be increased on average by 1.0%, 5.0%, 14.4%, and 20.2%, by adopting adaptation options of heat tolerance, drought tolerant cultivars, supplemental irrigation and a combination of drought tolerance cultivar and supplemental irrigation respectively. The spatial patterns of relative benefits of adaptation options were geographically different and the greatest benefits can be achieved by adopting new cultivars having drought tolerance and with the application of one supplemental irrigation at 60days after sowing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Low methane concentrations in sediment along the continental slope north of Siberia: Inference from pore water geochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, C.; Dickens, G. R.; Jakobsson, M.; Koshurnikov, A.

2016-12-01

The Eastern Siberian Margin (ESM), a vast region of the Arctic, potentially holds large amounts of methane in sediments as gas hydrate and free gas. Although this CH4 has become a topic of discussion, primarily because of rapid regional climate change, the ESM remains sparingly explored. Here we present pore water chemistry results from 32 cores taken during Leg 2 of the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. The cores come from depth transects across the continental slope of the ESM between Wrangel Island and the New Siberian Islands. Upward CH4 flux towards the seafloor, as inferred from profiles of dissolved sulfate (SO42-), alkalinity, and the δ13C-dissolved inorganic Carbon (DIC), is negligible at all stations east of where the Lomonosov Ridge abuts the ESM at about 143°E. In the upper eight meters of these cores, downward sulfate flux never exceeds 9.2 mol/m2-kyr, the upward alkalinity flux never exceeds 6.8 mol/m2-kyr, and δ13C-DIC only slowly decreases with depth (-3.6‰/m on average). Additionally, dissolved H2S was not detected in these cores, and nutrient and metal profiles reveal that metal oxide reduction by organic carbon dominates the geochemical environment. A single core on Lomonosov Ridge differs, as diffusive fluxes for SO42- and alkalinity were 13.9 and 11.3 mol/m2-kyr, respectively, the δ13C-DIC gradient was 5.6‰/m, and Mn2+ reduction terminated within 1.3 m of the seafloor. These are among the first pore water results generated from this vast climatically sensitive region, and they imply that significant quantities of CH4, including gas hydrates, do not exist in any of our investigated depth transects spread out along much of the ESM continental slope. This contradicts previous assumptions and hypothetical models and discussion, which generally have assumed the presence of substantial CH4.

New imaging algorithm in diffusion tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klibanov, Michael V.; Lucas, Thomas R.; Frank, Robert M.

1997-08-01

A novel imaging algorithm for diffusion/optical tomography is presented for the case of the time dependent diffusion equation. Numerical tests are conducted for ranges of parameters realistic for applications to an early breast cancer diagnosis using ultrafast laser pulses. This is a perturbation-like method which works for both homogeneous a heterogeneous background media. Its main innovation lies in a new approach for a novel linearized problem (LP). Such an LP is derived and reduced to a boundary value problem for a coupled system of elliptic partial differential equations. As is well known, the solution of such a system amounts to the factorization of well conditioned, sparse matrices with few non-zero entries clustered along the diagonal, which can be done very rapidly. Thus, the main advantages of this technique are that it is fast and accurate. The authors call this approach the elliptic systems method (ESM). The ESM can be extended for other data collection schemes.

Statistical downscaling of mean temperature, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature on the Loess Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, L.

2017-12-01

Climate change is considered to be one of the greatest environmental threats. Global climate models (GCMs) are the primary tool used for studying climate change. However, GCMs are limited because of their coarse spatial resolution and inability to resolve important sub-grid scale features such as terrain and clouds. Statistical downscaling methods can be used to downscale large-scale variables to local-scale. In this study, we assess the applicability of the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in downscaling the outputs from Beijing Normal University Earth System Model (BNU-ESM). The study focus on the the Loess Plateau, China, and the variables for downscaling include daily mean temperature (TMEAN), maximum temperature (TMAX) and minimum temperature (TMIN). The results show that SDSM performs well for these three climatic variables on the Loess Plateau. After downscaling, the root mean square errors for TMEAN, TMAX, TMIN for BNU-ESM were reduced by 70.9%, 75.1%, and 67.2%, respectively. All the rates of change in TMEAN, TMAX and TMIN during the 21st century decreased after SDSM downscaling. We also show that SDSM can effectively reduce uncertainty, compared with the raw model outputs. TMEAN uncertainty was reduced by 27.1%, 26.8%, and 16.3% for the future scenarios of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The corresponding reductions in uncertainty were 23.6%, 30.7%, and 18.7% for TMAX; 37.6%, 31.8%, and 23.2% for TMIN.

Simulating Freshwater Availability under Future Climate Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, F.; Zeng, N.; Motesharrei, S.; Gustafson, K. C.; Rivas, J.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F.; Kalnay, E.

2013-12-01

Freshwater availability is a key factor for regional development. Precipitation, evaporation, river inflow and outflow are the major terms in the estimate of regional water supply. In this study, we aim to obtain a realistic estimate for these variables from 1901 to 2100. First we calculated the ensemble mean precipitation using the 2011-2100 RCP4.5 output (re-sampled to half-degree spatial resolution) from 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) participating the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The projections are then combined with the half-degree 1901-2010 Climate Research Unit (CRU) TS3.2 dataset after bias correction. We then used the combined data to drive our UMD Earth System Model (ESM), in order to generate evaporation and runoff. We also developed a River-Routing Scheme based on the idea of Taikan Oki, as part of the ESM. It is capable of calculating river inflow and outflow for any region, driven by the gridded runoff output. River direction and slope information from Global Dominant River Tracing (DRT) dataset are included in our scheme. The effects of reservoirs/dams are parameterized based on a few simple factors such as soil moisture, population density and geographic regions. Simulated river flow is validated with river gauge measurements for the world's major rivers. We have applied our river flow calculation to two data-rich watersheds in the United States: Phoenix AMA watershed and the Potomac River Basin. The results are used in our SImple WAter model (SIWA) to explore water management options.

Climate change impact on streamflow in large-scale river basins: projections and their uncertainties sourced from GCMs and RCP scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasonova, Olga N.; Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

2018-06-01

Climate change impact on river runoff was investigated within the framework of the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP2) using a physically-based land surface model Soil Water - Atmosphere - Plants (SWAP) (developed in the Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences) and meteorological projections (for 2006-2099) simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) (including GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M) for each of four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Eleven large-scale river basins were used in this study. First of all, SWAP was calibrated and validated against monthly values of measured river runoff with making use of forcing data from the WATCH data set and all GCMs' projections were bias-corrected to the WATCH. Then, for each basin, 20 projections of possible changes in river runoff during the 21st century were simulated by SWAP. Analysis of the obtained hydrological projections allowed us to estimate their uncertainties resulted from application of different GCMs and RCP scenarios. On the average, the contribution of different GCMs to the uncertainty of the projected river runoff is nearly twice larger than the contribution of RCP scenarios. At the same time the contribution of GCMs slightly decreases with time.

Dealing with daily challenges in dementia (deal-id study): effectiveness of the experience sampling method intervention 'Partner in Sight' for spousal caregivers of people with dementia: design of a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

van Knippenberg, Rosalia J M; de Vugt, Marjolein E; Ponds, Rudolf W; Myin-Germeys, Inez; Verhey, Frans R J

2016-05-11

There is an urgent need for psychosocial interventions that effectively support dementia caregivers in daily life. The Experience Sampling Methodology (ESM) offers the possibility to provide a more dynamic view of caregiver functioning. ESM-derived feedback may help to redirect caregivers' behavior towards situations that elicit positive emotions and to increase their feelings of competence in the caretaking process. This paper presents the design of a study that evaluates the process characteristics and effects of the ESM-based intervention 'Partner in Sight'. A randomized controlled trial with 90 spousal caregivers of people with dementia will be conducted. Participants will be randomly assigned to the experimental (6-week ESM intervention including feedback), pseudo-experimental (6-week ESM intervention without feedback), or control group (care as usual). Assessments will be performed pre- and post-intervention and at 2-, and 6-month follow-up. Main outcomes will be sense of competence, perceived control, momentary positive affect, and psychological complaints (depressive symptoms, perceived stress, anxiety, momentary negative affect). In addition to the effect evaluation, a process and economic evaluation will be conducted to investigate the credibility and generalizability of the intervention, and its cost-effectiveness. The potential effects of the ESM intervention may help caregivers to endure their care responsibilities and prevent them from becoming overburdened. This is the first ESM intervention for caregivers of people with dementia. The results of this study, therefore, provide a valuable contribution to the growing knowledge on m-health interventions for dementia caregivers. Dutch Trial Register NTR4847 ; date registered Oct 9, 2014.

Global Modeling, Field Campaigns, Upscaling and Ray Desjardins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sellers, P. J.; Hall, F. G.

2012-01-01

In the early 1980's, it became apparent that land surface radiation and energy budgets were unrealistically represented in Global Circulation models (GCM's), Shortly thereafter, it became clear that the land carbon budget was also poorly represented in Earth System Models (ESM's), A number of scientific communities, including GCM/ESM modelers, micrometeorologists, satellite data specialists and plant physiologists, came together to design field experiments that could be used to develop and validate the contemporary prototype land surface models. These experiments were designed to measure land surface fluxes of radiation, heat, water vapor and CO2 using a network of flux towers and other plot-scale techniques, coincident with satellite measurements of related state variables, The interdisciplinary teams involved in these experiments quickly became aware of the scale gap between plot-scale measurements (approx 10 - 100m), satellite measurements (100m - 10 km), and GCM grid areas (l0 - 200km). At the time, there was no established flux measurement capability to bridge these scale gaps. Then, a Canadian science learn led by Ray Desjardins started to actively participate in the design and execution of the experiments, with airborne eddy correlation providing the radically innovative bridge across the scale gaps, In a succession of brilliantly executed field campaigns followed up by convincing scientific analyses, they demonstrated that airborne eddy correlation allied with satellite data was the most powerful upscaling tool available to the community, The rest is history: the realism and credibility of weather and climate models has been enormously improved enormously over the last 25 years with immense benefits to the public and policymakers.

Ephedra-Treated Donor-Derived Gut Microbiota Transplantation Ameliorates High Fat Diet-Induced Obesity in Rats

PubMed Central

Wang, Jing-Hua; Kim, Bong-Soo; Han, Kyungsun; Kim, Hojun

2017-01-01

Changes in gut microbiota (GM) are closely associated with metabolic syndrome, obesity, type 2 diabetes and so on. Several medicinal herbs, including Ephedra sinica (Es), have anti-obesity effects that ameliorate metabolic disorders. Therefore, in this study we evaluated whether Es maintains its anti-obesity effect through Es-altered gut microbiota (EsM) transplantation. GM was isolated from cecal contents of Es treated and untreated rats following repeated transplants into obese rats via oral gavage over three weeks. High-fat-diet (HFD)-induced obese rats transplanted with EsM lost significant body weight, epididymal fat, and perirenal fat weight, but no remarkable changes were observed in abdominal fat, liver, cecum weight and food efficiency ratio. In addition, treatment with EsM also significantly lowered the fasting blood glucose, serum insulin level, and insulin resistance index. Meanwhile, EsM transplantation significantly reduced gene expression of proinflammatory cytokines interleukin-1 and monocyte chemotactic protein-1. Rats treated with EsM also showed changed GM composition, especially blautia, roseburia and clostridium, significantly reduced the level of endotoxin and markedly increased the acetic acid in feces. Overall, our results demonstrated that EsM ameliorates HFD-induced obesity and related metabolic disorders, like hyperglycemia and insulin resistance, and is strongly associated with modulating the distribution of GM, enterogenous endotoxin and enteral acetic acid. PMID:28545248

Ephedra-Treated Donor-Derived Gut Microbiota Transplantation Ameliorates High Fat Diet-Induced Obesity in Rats.

PubMed

Wang, Jing-Hua; Kim, Bong-Soo; Han, Kyungsun; Kim, Hojun

2017-05-23

Changes in gut microbiota (GM) are closely associated with metabolic syndrome, obesity, type 2 diabetes and so on. Several medicinal herbs, including Ephedra sinica (Es), have anti-obesity effects that ameliorate metabolic disorders. Therefore, in this study we evaluated whether Es maintains its anti-obesity effect through Es-altered gut microbiota (EsM) transplantation. GM was isolated from cecal contents of Es treated and untreated rats following repeated transplants into obese rats via oral gavage over three weeks. High-fat-diet (HFD)-induced obese rats transplanted with EsM lost significant body weight, epididymal fat, and perirenal fat weight, but no remarkable changes were observed in abdominal fat, liver, cecum weight and food efficiency ratio. In addition, treatment with EsM also significantly lowered the fasting blood glucose, serum insulin level, and insulin resistance index. Meanwhile, EsM transplantation significantly reduced gene expression of proinflammatory cytokines interleukin-1 and monocyte chemotactic protein-1. Rats treated with EsM also showed changed GM composition, especially blautia, roseburia and clostridium, significantly reduced the level of endotoxin and markedly increased the acetic acid in feces. Overall, our results demonstrated that EsM ameliorates HFD-induced obesity and related metabolic disorders, like hyperglycemia and insulin resistance, and is strongly associated with modulating the distribution of GM, enterogenous endotoxin and enteral acetic acid.

Skills of General Circulation and Earth System Models in reproducing streamflow to the ocean: the case of Congo river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santini, M.; Caporaso, L.

2017-12-01

Although the importance of water resources in the context of climate change, it is still difficult to correctly simulate the freshwater cycle over the land via General Circulation and Earth System Models (GCMs and ESMs). Existing efforts from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) were mainly devoted to the validation of atmospheric variables like temperature and precipitation, with low attention to discharge.Here we investigate the present-day performances of GCMs and ESMs participating to CMIP5 in simulating the discharge of the river Congo to the sea thanks to: i) the long-term availability of discharge data for the Kinshasa hydrological station representative of more than 95% of the water flowing in the whole catchment; and ii) the River's still low influence by human intervention, which enables comparison with the (mostly) natural streamflow simulated within CMIP5.Our findings suggest how most of models appear overestimating the streamflow in terms of seasonal cycle, especially in the late winter and spring, while overestimation and variability across models are lower in late summer. Weighted ensemble means are also calculated, based on simulations' performances given by several metrics, showing some improvements of results.Although simulated inter-monthly and inter-annual percent anomalies do not appear significantly different from those in observed data, when translated into well consolidated indicators of drought attributes (frequency, magnitude, timing, duration), usually adopted for more immediate communication to stakeholders and decision makers, such anomalies can be misleading.These inconsistencies produce incorrect assessments towards water management planning and infrastructures (e.g. dams or irrigated areas), especially if models are used instead of measurements, as in case of ungauged basins or for basins with insufficient data, as well as when relying on models for future estimates without a preliminary quantification of model biases.

Are there interactive effects of physiological and radiative forcing produced by increased CO2 concentration on changes of land hydrological cycle?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Jing; Dan, Li; Dong, Wenjie

2014-01-01

Three coupled climate-carbon cycle models including CESM (Community Earth System Model), CanEsm (the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Earth System Model) and BCC (Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model) were used to estimate whether changes in land hydrological cycle responded to the interactive effects of CO2-physiological forcing and CO2-radiative forcing. No signs could be indicated that the interactive effects of CO2-physiological forcing and CO2-radiative forcing on the hydrological variables (e.g. precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff) were detected at global and regional scales. For each model, increases in precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff (e.g. 0.37, 0.18 and 0.25 mm/year2) were simulated in response to CO2-radiative forcing (experiment M3). Decreases in precipitation and evapotranspiration (about - 0.02 and - 0.09 mm/year2) were captured if the CO2 physiological effect was only accounted for (experiment M2). In this experiment, a reverse sign in runoff (the increase of 0.08 mm/year2) in contrast to M3 is presented. All models simulated the same signs across Eastern Asia in response to the CO2 physiological forcing and radiative forcing: increases in precipitation and evapotranspiration only considering greenhouse effect; reductions in precipitation and evapotranspiration in response to CO2-physiological effect; and enhanced trends in runoff from all experiments. However, there was still a large uncertainty on the magnitude of the effect of transpiration on runoff (decreased transpiration accounting for 8% to 250% of the increased runoff) from the three models. Two models (CanEsm and BCC) attributed most of the increase in runoff to the decrease in transpiration if the CO2-physiological effect was only accounted for, whereas CESM exhibited that the decrease in transpiration could not totally explain the increase in runoff. The attribution of the CO2-physiological forcing to changes in stomatal conductance versus changes in vegetation structure (e.g. increased Leaf Area Index) is an issue to discuss, and among the three models, no agreement appeared.

Using experience sampling methods/ecological momentary assessment (ESM/EMA) in clinical assessment and clinical research: introduction to the special section.

PubMed

Trull, Timothy J; Ebner-Priemer, Ulrich W

2009-12-01

This article introduces the special section on experience sampling methods and ecological momentary assessment in clinical assessment. We review the conceptual basis for experience sampling methods (ESM; Csikszentmihalyi & Larson, 1987) and ecological momentary assessment (EMA; Stone & Shiffman, 1994). Next, we highlight several advantageous features of ESM/EMA as applied to psychological assessment and clinical research. We provide a brief overview of the articles in this special section, each of which focuses on 1 of the following major classes of psychological disorders: mood disorders and mood dysregulation (Ebner-Priemer & Trull, 2009), anxiety disorders (Alpers, 2009), substance use disorders (Shiffman, 2009), and psychosis (Oorschot, Kwapil, Delespaul, & Myin-Germeys, 2009). Finally, we discuss prospects, future challenges, and limitations of ESM/EMA.

Cryogenic temperature control by means of energy storage materials. [for long space voyages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grodzka, P. G.; Picklesimer, E. A.; Connor, L. E.

1977-01-01

An investigation was conducted to study the concept of thermal control by means of physical or chemical reaction heats for applications involving the storage of cryogens during long-term space voyages. The investigation included some preliminary experimental tests of energy storage material (ESM) effectiveness. The materials considered can store and liberate large amounts of thermal energy by means of mechanisms such as sensible heat, heat of fusion, and physical or chemical reaction heat. A differential thermal analysis was utilized in the laboratory tests. Attention is given to the evaluation of cryogenic ESM thermal control concepts, the experimental determination of phase change materials characteristics, and adsorption ESMs. It is found that an ESM shield surrounded by multiple layer insulation provides the best protection for a cryogen store.

The COSMO-CLM 4.8 regional climate model coupled to regional ocean, land surface and global earth system models using OASIS3-MCT: description and performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Will, Andreas; Akhtar, Naveed; Brauch, Jennifer; Breil, Marcus; Davin, Edouard; Ho-Hagemann, Ha T. M.; Maisonnave, Eric; Thürkow, Markus; Weiher, Stefan

2017-04-01

We developed a coupled regional climate system model based on the CCLM regional climate model. Within this model system, using OASIS3-MCT as a coupler, CCLM can be coupled to two land surface models (the Community Land Model (CLM) and VEG3D), the NEMO-MED12 regional ocean model for the Mediterranean Sea, two ocean models for the North and Baltic seas (NEMO-NORDIC and TRIMNP+CICE) and the MPI-ESM Earth system model.We first present the different model components and the unified OASIS3-MCT interface which handles all couplings in a consistent way, minimising the model source code modifications and defining the physical and numerical aspects of the couplings. We also address specific coupling issues like the handling of different domains, multiple usage of the MCT library and exchange of 3-D fields.We analyse and compare the computational performance of the different couplings based on real-case simulations over Europe. The usage of the LUCIA tool implemented in OASIS3-MCT enables the quantification of the contributions of the coupled components to the overall coupling cost. These individual contributions are (1) cost of the model(s) coupled, (2) direct cost of coupling including horizontal interpolation and communication between the components, (3) load imbalance, (4) cost of different usage of processors by CCLM in coupled and stand-alone mode and (5) residual cost including i.a. CCLM additional computations.Finally a procedure for finding an optimum processor configuration for each of the couplings was developed considering the time to solution, computing cost and parallel efficiency of the simulation. The optimum configurations are presented for sequential, concurrent and mixed (sequential+concurrent) coupling layouts. The procedure applied can be regarded as independent of the specific coupling layout and coupling details.We found that the direct cost of coupling, i.e. communications and horizontal interpolation, in OASIS3-MCT remains below 7 % of the CCLM stand-alone cost for all couplings investigated. This is in particular true for the exchange of 450 2-D fields between CCLM and MPI-ESM. We identified remaining limitations in the coupling strategies and discuss possible future improvements of the computational efficiency.

Validation of newly designed regional earth system model (RegESM) for Mediterranean Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turuncoglu, Ufuk Utku; Sannino, Gianmaria

2017-05-01

We present a validation analysis of a regional earth system model system (RegESM) for the Mediterranean Basin. The used configuration of the modeling system includes two active components: a regional climate model (RegCM4) and an ocean modeling system (ROMS). To assess the performance of the coupled modeling system in representing the climate of the basin, the results of the coupled simulation (C50E) are compared to the results obtained by a standalone atmospheric simulation (R50E) as well as several observation datasets. Although there is persistent cold bias in fall and winter, which is also seen in previous studies, the model reproduces the inter-annual variability and the seasonal cycles of sea surface temperature (SST) in a general good agreement with the available observations. The analysis of the near-surface wind distribution and the main circulation of the sea indicates that the coupled model can reproduce the main characteristics of the Mediterranean Sea surface and intermediate layer circulation as well as the seasonal variability of wind speed and direction when it is compared with the available observational datasets. The results also reveal that the simulated near-surface wind speed and direction have poor performance in the Gulf of Lion and surrounding regions that also affects the large positive SST bias in the region due to the insufficient horizontal resolution of the atmospheric component of the coupled modeling system. The simulated seasonal climatologies of the surface heat flux components are also consistent with the CORE.2 and NOCS datasets along with the overestimation in net long-wave radiation and latent heat flux (or evaporation, E), although a large observational uncertainty is found in these variables. Also, the coupled model tends to improve the latent heat flux by providing a better representation of the air-sea interaction as well as total heat flux budget over the sea. Both models are also able to reproduce the temporal evolution of the inter-annual anomaly of surface air temperature and precipitation (P) over defined sub-regions. The Mediterranean water budget (E, P and E-P) estimates also show that the coupled model has high skill in the representation of water budget of the Mediterranean Sea. To conclude, the coupled model reproduces climatological land surface fields and the sea surface variables in the range of observation uncertainty and allow studying air-sea interaction and main regional climate characteristics of the basin.

Tropical teleconnections via the ocean and atmosphere induced by Southern Ocean deep convective events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marinov, I.; Cabre, A.; Gunn, A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2016-12-01

The current generation (CMIP5) of Earth System Models (ESMs) shows a huge variability in their ability to represent Southern Ocean (SO) deep-ocean convection and Antarctic Bottom Water, with a preference for open-sea convection in the Weddell and Ross gyres. A long control simulation in a coarse 3o resolution ESM (the GFDL CM2Mc model) shows a highly regular multi-decadal oscillation between periods of SO open sea convection and non-convective periods. This process also happens naturally, with different frequencies and durations of convection across most CMIP5 models under preindustrial forcing (deLavergne et al, 2014). Here we assess the impact of SO deep convection and resulting sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the tropical atmosphere and ocean via teleconnections, with a focus on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. We combine analysis of our low-resolution coupled model with inter-model analysis across historical CMIP5 simulations. SST cooling south of 60S during non-convective decades triggers a stronger, northward shifted SH Hadley cell, which results in intensified northward cross-equatorial moist heat transport and a poleward shift in the ITCZ. Resulting correlations between the cross-equatorial atmospheric heat transport and ITCZ location are in good agreement with recent theories (e.g. Frierson et al. 2013; Donohoe et al. 2014). Lagged correlations between a SO convective index and cross-equatorial heat transports (in the atmosphere and ocean), as well as various tropical (and ENSO) climate indices are analyzed. In the ocean realm, we find that non-convective decades result in weaker AABW formation and weaker ACC but stronger Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) formation, likely as a result of stronger SO westerlies (more positive SAM). The signals of AABW and AAIW are seen in the tropics on short timescales of years to decades in the temperature, heat storage and heat transport anomalies and also in deep and intermediate ocean oxygen. Most of the current ESMs with frequent deep-sea convection events in the control state predict a permanent shut down of this convection under climate change in the 21st century. We propose that the preindustrial convective state of the Southern Ocean and its evolution under climate warming will have implications for the SO-tropical teleconnections.

Drought and heatwaves in Europe: historical reconstruction and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Rakovec, Olda; Wood, Eric; Sheffield, Justin; Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Prudhomme, Christel

2017-04-01

Heat waves and droughts are creeping hydro-meteorological events that may bring societies and natural systems to their limits by inducing large famines, increasing health risks to the population, creating drinking and irrigation water shortfalls, inducing natural fires and degradation of soil and water quality, and in many cases causing large socio-economic losses. Europe, in particular, has endured large scale drought-heat-wave events during the recent past (e.g., 2003 European drought), which have induced enormous socio-economic losses as well as casualties. Recent studies showed that the prediction of droughts and heatwaves is subject to large-scale forcing and parametric uncertainties that lead to considerable uncertainties in the projections of extreme characteristics such as drought magnitude/duration and area under drought, among others. Future projections are also heavily influenced by the RCP scenario uncertainty as well as the coarser spatial resolution of the models. The EDgE project funded by the Copernicus programme (C3S) provides an unique opportunity to investigate the evolution of droughts and heatwaves from 1950 until 2099 over the Pan-EU domain at a scale of 5x5 km2. In this project, high-resolution multi-model hydrologic simulations with the mHM (www.ufz.de/mhm), Noah-MP, VIC and PCR-GLOBWB have been completed for the historical period 1955-2015. Climate projections have been carried out with five CMIP-5 GCMs: GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M from 2006 to 2099 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Using these multi-model unprecedented simulations, daily soil moisture index and temperature anomalies since 1955 until 2099 will be estimated. Using the procedure proposed by Samaniego et al. (2013), the probabilities of exceeding the benchmark events in the reference period 1980-2010 will be estimated for each RCP scenario. References http://climate.copernicus.eu/edge-end-end-demonstrator-improved-decision-making-water-sector-europe Samaniego, L., R. Kumar, and M. Zink, 2013: Implications of parameter uncertainty on soil moisture drought analysis in Germany. J. Hydrometeor., 14, 47-68, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-12-075.1. Samaniego, L., et al. 2016: Propagation of forcing and model uncertainties on to hydrological drought characteristics in a multi-model century-long experiment in large river basins. Climatic Change. 1-15.

A unified multicomponent stress-diffusion model of drug release from non-biodegradable polymeric matrix tablets.

PubMed

Salehi, Ali; Zhao, Jin; Cabelka, Tim D; Larson, Ronald G

2016-02-28

We propose a new transport model of drug release from hydrophilic polymeric matrices, based on Stefan-Maxwell flux laws for multicomponent transport. Polymer stress is incorporated in the total mixing free energy, which contributes directly to the diffusion driving force while leading to time-dependent boundary conditions at the tablet interface. Given that hydrated matrix tablets are dense multicomponent systems, extended Stefan-Maxwell (ESM) flux laws are adopted to ensure consistency with the Onsager reciprocity principle and the Gibbs-Duhem thermodynamic constraint. The ESM flux law for any given component takes into account the friction exerted by all other species and is invariant with respect to reference velocity, thus satisfying Galilean translational invariance. Our model demonstrates that penetrant-induced plasticization of polymer chains partially or even entirely offsets the steady decline of chemical potential gradients at the tablet-medium interface that drive drug release. Utilizing a Flory-Huggins thermodynamic model, a modified form of the upper convected Maxwell constitutive equation for polymer stress and a Fujita-type dependence of mutual diffusivities on composition, depending on parameters, Fickian, anomalous or case II drug transport arises naturally from the model, which are characterized by quasi-power-law release profiles with exponents ranging from 0.5 to 1, respectively. A necessary requirement for non-Fickian release in our model is that the matrix stress relaxation time is comparable to the time scale for water diffusion. Mutual diffusivities and their composition dependence are the most decisive factors in controlling drug release characteristics in our model. Regression of the experimental polymer dissolution and drug release profiles in a system of Theophylline/cellulose (K15M) demonstrate that API-water mutual diffusivity in the presence of excipient cannot generally be taken as a constant. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Scaling Impacts in Life Support Architecture and Technology Selection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lange, Kevin

2016-01-01

For long-duration space missions outside of Earth orbit, reliability considerations will drive higher levels of redundancy and/or on-board spares for life support equipment. Component scaling will be a critical element in minimizing overall launch mass while maintaining an acceptable level of system reliability. Building on an earlier reliability study (AIAA 2012-3491), this paper considers the impact of alternative scaling approaches, including the design of technology assemblies and their individual components to maximum, nominal, survival, or other fractional requirements. The optimal level of life support system closure is evaluated for deep-space missions of varying duration using equivalent system mass (ESM) as the comparative basis. Reliability impacts are included in ESM by estimating the number of component spares required to meet a target system reliability. Common cause failures are included in the analysis. ISS and ISS-derived life support technologies are considered along with selected alternatives. This study focusses on minimizing launch mass, which may be enabling for deep-space missions.

Scaling impacts on environmental controls and spatial heterogeneity of soil organic carbon stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, U.; Riley, W. J.

2015-01-01

The spatial heterogeneity of land surfaces affects energy, moisture, and greenhouse gas exchanges with the atmosphere. However, representing heterogeneity of terrestrial hydrological and biogeochemical processes in earth system models (ESMs) remains a critical scientific challenge. We report the impact of spatial scaling on environmental controls, spatial structure, and statistical properties of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks across the US state of Alaska. We used soil profile observations and environmental factors such as topography, climate, land cover types, and surficial geology to predict the SOC stocks at a 50 m spatial scale. These spatially heterogeneous estimates provide a dataset with reasonable fidelity to the observations at a sufficiently high resolution to examine the environmental controls on the spatial structure of SOC stocks. We upscaled both the predicted SOC stocks and environmental variables from finer to coarser spatial scales (s = 100, 200, 500 m, 1, 2, 5, 10 km) and generated various statistical properties of SOC stock estimates. We found different environmental factors to be statistically significant predictors at different spatial scales. Only elevation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and scrub land cover types were significant predictors at all scales. The strengths of control (the median value of geographically weighted regression coefficients) of these four environmental variables on SOC stocks decreased with increasing scale and were accurately represented using mathematical functions (R2 = 0.83-0.97). The spatial structure of SOC stocks across Alaska changed with spatial scale. Although the variance (sill) and unstructured variability (nugget) of the calculated variograms of SOC stocks decreased exponentially with scale, the correlation length (range) remained relatively constant across scale. The variance of predicted SOC stocks decreased with spatial scale over the range of 50 to ~ 500 m, and remained constant beyond this scale. The fitted exponential function accounted for 98% of variability in the variance of SOC stocks. We found moderately-accurate linear relationships between mean and higher-order moments of predicted SOC stocks (R2 ~ 0.55-0.63). Current ESMs operate at coarse spatial scales (50-100 km), and are therefore unable to represent environmental controllers and spatial heterogeneity of high-latitude SOC stocks consistent with observations. We conclude that improved understanding of the scaling behavior of environmental controls and statistical properties of SOC stocks can improve ESM land model benchmarking and perhaps allow representation of spatial heterogeneity of biogeochemistry at scales finer than those currently resolved by ESMs.

Scaling impacts on environmental controls and spatial heterogeneity of soil organic carbon stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, U.; Riley, W. J.

2015-07-01

The spatial heterogeneity of land surfaces affects energy, moisture, and greenhouse gas exchanges with the atmosphere. However, representing the heterogeneity of terrestrial hydrological and biogeochemical processes in Earth system models (ESMs) remains a critical scientific challenge. We report the impact of spatial scaling on environmental controls, spatial structure, and statistical properties of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks across the US state of Alaska. We used soil profile observations and environmental factors such as topography, climate, land cover types, and surficial geology to predict the SOC stocks at a 50 m spatial scale. These spatially heterogeneous estimates provide a data set with reasonable fidelity to the observations at a sufficiently high resolution to examine the environmental controls on the spatial structure of SOC stocks. We upscaled both the predicted SOC stocks and environmental variables from finer to coarser spatial scales (s = 100, 200, and 500 m and 1, 2, 5, and 10 km) and generated various statistical properties of SOC stock estimates. We found different environmental factors to be statistically significant predictors at different spatial scales. Only elevation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and scrub land cover types were significant predictors at all scales. The strengths of control (the median value of geographically weighted regression coefficients) of these four environmental variables on SOC stocks decreased with increasing scale and were accurately represented using mathematical functions (R2 = 0.83-0.97). The spatial structure of SOC stocks across Alaska changed with spatial scale. Although the variance (sill) and unstructured variability (nugget) of the calculated variograms of SOC stocks decreased exponentially with scale, the correlation length (range) remained relatively constant across scale. The variance of predicted SOC stocks decreased with spatial scale over the range of 50 m to ~ 500 m, and remained constant beyond this scale. The fitted exponential function accounted for 98 % of variability in the variance of SOC stocks. We found moderately accurate linear relationships between mean and higher-order moments of predicted SOC stocks (R2 ∼ 0.55-0.63). Current ESMs operate at coarse spatial scales (50-100 km), and are therefore unable to represent environmental controllers and spatial heterogeneity of high-latitude SOC stocks consistent with observations. We conclude that improved understanding of the scaling behavior of environmental controls and statistical properties of SOC stocks could improve ESM land model benchmarking and perhaps allow representation of spatial heterogeneity of biogeochemistry at scales finer than those currently resolved by ESMs.

Scaling impacts on environmental controls and spatial heterogeneity of soil organic carbon stocks

DOE PAGES

Mishra, U.; Riley, W. J.

2015-07-02

The spatial heterogeneity of land surfaces affects energy, moisture, and greenhouse gas exchanges with the atmosphere. However, representing the heterogeneity of terrestrial hydrological and biogeochemical processes in Earth system models (ESMs) remains a critical scientific challenge. We report the impact of spatial scaling on environmental controls, spatial structure, and statistical properties of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks across the US state of Alaska. We used soil profile observations and environmental factors such as topography, climate, land cover types, and surficial geology to predict the SOC stocks at a 50 m spatial scale. These spatially heterogeneous estimates provide a data setmore » with reasonable fidelity to the observations at a sufficiently high resolution to examine the environmental controls on the spatial structure of SOC stocks. We upscaled both the predicted SOC stocks and environmental variables from finer to coarser spatial scales ( s = 100, 200, and 500 m and 1, 2, 5, and 10 km) and generated various statistical properties of SOC stock estimates. We found different environmental factors to be statistically significant predictors at different spatial scales. Only elevation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and scrub land cover types were significant predictors at all scales. The strengths of control (the median value of geographically weighted regression coefficients) of these four environmental variables on SOC stocks decreased with increasing scale and were accurately represented using mathematical functions ( R 2 = 0.83–0.97). The spatial structure of SOC stocks across Alaska changed with spatial scale. Although the variance (sill) and unstructured variability (nugget) of the calculated variograms of SOC stocks decreased exponentially with scale, the correlation length (range) remained relatively constant across scale. The variance of predicted SOC stocks decreased with spatial scale over the range of 50 m to ~ 500 m, and remained constant beyond this scale. The fitted exponential function accounted for 98 % of variability in the variance of SOC stocks. We found moderately accurate linear relationships between mean and higher-order moments of predicted SOC stocks ( R 2 ∼ 0.55–0.63). Current ESMs operate at coarse spatial scales (50–100 km), and are therefore unable to represent environmental controllers and spatial heterogeneity of high-latitude SOC stocks consistent with observations. We conclude that improved understanding of the scaling behavior of environmental controls and statistical properties of SOC stocks could improve ESM land model benchmarking and perhaps allow representation of spatial heterogeneity of biogeochemistry at scales finer than those currently resolved by ESMs.« less

Scaling impacts on environmental controls and spatial heterogeneity of soil organic carbon stocks

DOE PAGES

Mishra, U.; Riley, W. J.

2015-01-01

The spatial heterogeneity of land surfaces affects energy, moisture, and greenhouse gas exchanges with the atmosphere. However, representing heterogeneity of terrestrial hydrological and biogeochemical processes in earth system models (ESMs) remains a critical scientific challenge. We report the impact of spatial scaling on environmental controls, spatial structure, and statistical properties of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks across the US state of Alaska. We used soil profile observations and environmental factors such as topography, climate, land cover types, and surficial geology to predict the SOC stocks at a 50 m spatial scale. These spatially heterogeneous estimates provide a dataset with reasonablemore » fidelity to the observations at a sufficiently high resolution to examine the environmental controls on the spatial structure of SOC stocks. We upscaled both the predicted SOC stocks and environmental variables from finer to coarser spatial scales ( s = 100, 200, 500 m, 1, 2, 5, 10 km) and generated various statistical properties of SOC stock estimates. We found different environmental factors to be statistically significant predictors at different spatial scales. Only elevation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and scrub land cover types were significant predictors at all scales. The strengths of control (the median value of geographically weighted regression coefficients) of these four environmental variables on SOC stocks decreased with increasing scale and were accurately represented using mathematical functions ( R 2 = 0.83–0.97). The spatial structure of SOC stocks across Alaska changed with spatial scale. Although the variance (sill) and unstructured variability (nugget) of the calculated variograms of SOC stocks decreased exponentially with scale, the correlation length (range) remained relatively constant across scale. The variance of predicted SOC stocks decreased with spatial scale over the range of 50 to ~ 500 m, and remained constant beyond this scale. The fitted exponential function accounted for 98% of variability in the variance of SOC stocks. We found moderately-accurate linear relationships between mean and higher-order moments of predicted SOC stocks ( R 2 ~ 0.55–0.63). Current ESMs operate at coarse spatial scales (50–100 km), and are therefore unable to represent environmental controllers and spatial heterogeneity of high-latitude SOC stocks consistent with observations. We conclude that improved understanding of the scaling behavior of environmental controls and statistical properties of SOC stocks can improve ESM land model benchmarking and perhaps allow representation of spatial heterogeneity of biogeochemistry at scales finer than those currently resolved by ESMs.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mishra, U.; Riley, W. J.

The spatial heterogeneity of land surfaces affects energy, moisture, and greenhouse gas exchanges with the atmosphere. However, representing the heterogeneity of terrestrial hydrological and biogeochemical processes in Earth system models (ESMs) remains a critical scientific challenge. We report the impact of spatial scaling on environmental controls, spatial structure, and statistical properties of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks across the US state of Alaska. We used soil profile observations and environmental factors such as topography, climate, land cover types, and surficial geology to predict the SOC stocks at a 50 m spatial scale. These spatially heterogeneous estimates provide a data setmore » with reasonable fidelity to the observations at a sufficiently high resolution to examine the environmental controls on the spatial structure of SOC stocks. We upscaled both the predicted SOC stocks and environmental variables from finer to coarser spatial scales ( s = 100, 200, and 500 m and 1, 2, 5, and 10 km) and generated various statistical properties of SOC stock estimates. We found different environmental factors to be statistically significant predictors at different spatial scales. Only elevation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and scrub land cover types were significant predictors at all scales. The strengths of control (the median value of geographically weighted regression coefficients) of these four environmental variables on SOC stocks decreased with increasing scale and were accurately represented using mathematical functions ( R 2 = 0.83–0.97). The spatial structure of SOC stocks across Alaska changed with spatial scale. Although the variance (sill) and unstructured variability (nugget) of the calculated variograms of SOC stocks decreased exponentially with scale, the correlation length (range) remained relatively constant across scale. The variance of predicted SOC stocks decreased with spatial scale over the range of 50 m to ~ 500 m, and remained constant beyond this scale. The fitted exponential function accounted for 98 % of variability in the variance of SOC stocks. We found moderately accurate linear relationships between mean and higher-order moments of predicted SOC stocks ( R 2 ∼ 0.55–0.63). Current ESMs operate at coarse spatial scales (50–100 km), and are therefore unable to represent environmental controllers and spatial heterogeneity of high-latitude SOC stocks consistent with observations. We conclude that improved understanding of the scaling behavior of environmental controls and statistical properties of SOC stocks could improve ESM land model benchmarking and perhaps allow representation of spatial heterogeneity of biogeochemistry at scales finer than those currently resolved by ESMs.« less

Matrix approaches to assess terrestrial nitrogen scheme in CLM4.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Z.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles have been commonly represented by a series of balance equations to track their influxes into and effluxes out of individual pools in earth system models (ESMs). This representation matches our understanding of C and N cycle processes well but makes it difficult to track model behaviors. To overcome these challenges, we developed a matrix approach, which reorganizes the series of terrestrial C and N balance equations in the CLM4.5 into two matrix equations based on original representation of C and N cycle processes and mechanisms. The matrix approach would consequently help improve the comparability of models and data, evaluate impacts of additional model components, facilitate benchmark analyses, model intercomparisons, and data-model fusion, and improve model predictive power.

Representing leaf and root physiological traits in CLM improves global carbon and nitrogen cycling predictions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghimire, Bardan; Riley, William J.; Koven, Charles D.

In many ecosystems, nitrogen is the most limiting nutrient for plant growth and productivity. However, current Earth System Models (ESMs) do not mechanistically represent functional nitrogen allocation for photosynthesis or the linkage between nitrogen uptake and root traits. The current version of CLM (4.5) links nitrogen availability and plant productivity via (1) an instantaneous downregulation of potential photosynthesis rates based on soil mineral nitrogen availability, and (2) apportionment of soil nitrogen between plants and competing nitrogen consumers assumed to be proportional to their relative N demands. However, plants do not photosynthesize at potential rates and then downregulate; instead photosynthesis ratesmore » are governed by nitrogen that has been allocated to the physiological processes underpinning photosynthesis. Furthermore, the role of plant roots in nutrient acquisition has also been largely ignored in ESMs. We therefore present a new plant nitrogen model for CLM4.5 with (1) improved representations of linkages between leaf nitrogen and plant productivity based on observed relationships in a global plant trait database and (2) plant nitrogen uptake based on root-scale Michaelis-Menten uptake kinetics. Our model improvements led to a global bias reduction in GPP, LAI, and biomass of 70%, 11%, and 49%, respectively. Furthermore, water use efficiency predictions were improved conceptually, qualitatively, and in magnitude. The new model's GPP responses to nitrogen deposition, CO 2 fertilization, and climate also differed from the baseline model. The mechanistic representation of leaf-level nitrogen allocation and a theoretically consistent treatment of competition with belowground consumers led to overall improvements in global carbon cycling predictions.« less

Representing leaf and root physiological traits in CLM improves global carbon and nitrogen cycling predictions

DOE PAGES

Ghimire, Bardan; Riley, William J.; Koven, Charles D.; ...

2016-05-01

In many ecosystems, nitrogen is the most limiting nutrient for plant growth and productivity. However, current Earth System Models (ESMs) do not mechanistically represent functional nitrogen allocation for photosynthesis or the linkage between nitrogen uptake and root traits. The current version of CLM (4.5) links nitrogen availability and plant productivity via (1) an instantaneous downregulation of potential photosynthesis rates based on soil mineral nitrogen availability, and (2) apportionment of soil nitrogen between plants and competing nitrogen consumers assumed to be proportional to their relative N demands. However, plants do not photosynthesize at potential rates and then downregulate; instead photosynthesis ratesmore » are governed by nitrogen that has been allocated to the physiological processes underpinning photosynthesis. Furthermore, the role of plant roots in nutrient acquisition has also been largely ignored in ESMs. We therefore present a new plant nitrogen model for CLM4.5 with (1) improved representations of linkages between leaf nitrogen and plant productivity based on observed relationships in a global plant trait database and (2) plant nitrogen uptake based on root-scale Michaelis-Menten uptake kinetics. Our model improvements led to a global bias reduction in GPP, LAI, and biomass of 70%, 11%, and 49%, respectively. Furthermore, water use efficiency predictions were improved conceptually, qualitatively, and in magnitude. The new model's GPP responses to nitrogen deposition, CO 2 fertilization, and climate also differed from the baseline model. The mechanistic representation of leaf-level nitrogen allocation and a theoretically consistent treatment of competition with belowground consumers led to overall improvements in global carbon cycling predictions.« less

Representing leaf and root physiological traits in CLM improves global carbon and nitrogen cycling predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghimire, Bardan; Riley, William J.; Koven, Charles D.; Mu, Mingquan; Randerson, James T.

2016-06-01

In many ecosystems, nitrogen is the most limiting nutrient for plant growth and productivity. However, current Earth System Models (ESMs) do not mechanistically represent functional nitrogen allocation for photosynthesis or the linkage between nitrogen uptake and root traits. The current version of CLM (4.5) links nitrogen availability and plant productivity via (1) an instantaneous downregulation of potential photosynthesis rates based on soil mineral nitrogen availability, and (2) apportionment of soil nitrogen between plants and competing nitrogen consumers assumed to be proportional to their relative N demands. However, plants do not photosynthesize at potential rates and then downregulate; instead photosynthesis rates are governed by nitrogen that has been allocated to the physiological processes underpinning photosynthesis. Furthermore, the role of plant roots in nutrient acquisition has also been largely ignored in ESMs. We therefore present a new plant nitrogen model for CLM4.5 with (1) improved representations of linkages between leaf nitrogen and plant productivity based on observed relationships in a global plant trait database and (2) plant nitrogen uptake based on root-scale Michaelis-Menten uptake kinetics. Our model improvements led to a global bias reduction in GPP, LAI, and biomass of 70%, 11%, and 49%, respectively. Furthermore, water use efficiency predictions were improved conceptually, qualitatively, and in magnitude. The new model's GPP responses to nitrogen deposition, CO2 fertilization, and climate also differed from the baseline model. The mechanistic representation of leaf-level nitrogen allocation and a theoretically consistent treatment of competition with belowground consumers led to overall improvements in global carbon cycling predictions.

Negative affect and a fluctuating jumping to conclusions bias predict subsequent paranoia in daily life: An online experience sampling study.

PubMed

Lüdtke, Thies; Kriston, Levente; Schröder, Johanna; Lincoln, Tania M; Moritz, Steffen

2017-09-01

Negative affect and a tendency to "jump to conclusions" (JTC) are associated with paranoia. So far, only negative affect has been examined as a precursor of subsequent paranoia in daily life using experience sampling (ESM). We addressed this research gap and used ESM to test whether JTC fluctuates in daily life, whether it predicts subsequent paranoia, and whether it mediates the effect of negative affect on paranoia. Thirty-five participants with schizophrenia spectrum disorders repeatedly self-reported negative affect, JTC, and paranoia via online questionnaires on two consecutive days. We measured JTC with a paradigm consisting of ambiguous written scenarios. Multilevel linear models were conducted. Most participants showed JTC consistently on two days rather than only on one day. When time was used as a predictor of JTC, significant slope variance indicated that for a subgroup of participants JTC fluctuated over time. For 48% of participants, these fluctuations equaled changes of approximately ±1 point on the four-point JTC scale within one day. There was no mediation. However, negative affect and JTC both significantly predicted subsequent paranoia. The ESM assessment period was short and encompassed few assessments (8 in total). Our findings indicate that JTC is both stable (regarding its mere occurrence) and fluctuating simultaneously (regarding its magnitude). Although JTC was not a mediator linking negative affect and paranoia, it did predict paranoia. Further ESM studies on JTC are needed to confirm our findings in longer assessment periods and with other JTC paradigms. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Harmonization of global land-use scenarios for the period 850-2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurtt, G. C.; Chini, L. P.; Sahajpal, R.; Frolking, S. E.; Fisk, J.; Bodirsky, B.; Calvin, K. V.; Fujimori, S.; Goldewijk, K.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; Heinimann, A.; Humpenöder, F.; Kaplan, J. O.; Krisztin, T.; Lawrence, D. M.; Lawrence, P.; Mertz, O.; Popp, A.; Riahi, K.; Stehfest, E.; van Vuuren, D.; de Waal, L.; Zhang, X.

2016-12-01

Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community is developing the next generation of advanced Earth System Models (ESM) able to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, a new set of historical data based on HYDE, and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015-2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, are being developed as input for these models. Here we present results from the Land-use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, with the goal to smoothly connect updated historical reconstructions of land-use with new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land-use patterns, underlying land-use transitions, and key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction and IAM initial conditions, and working to preserve changes depicted by the IAMs in the future. The new approach builds off the approach from CMIP5, and is provided at higher resolution (0.25x0.25 degree), over longer time domain (850-2100), with more detail (including multiple crop and pasture types and associated management), using more inputs (including Landsat data), updated algorithms (wood harvest and shifting cultivation), and is assessed via a new diagnostic package. The new LUH2 products contain >50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5, and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land-use on the global carbon-climate system.

The Multi-purpose Crew Vehicle European Service Module: a European Contribution to Human Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Kathleen; Berthe, Philippe; Grantier, Julie; Pietsch, Klaus; Angelillo, Philippe; Price, Laurence

2013-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the system and subsystem configuration of the MPCV European Service Module (ESM) at Preliminary Design Review (PDR) stage as well as its perspectives of utilisation within the global space exploration endeavour. The MPCV ESM is a cylindrical module with a diameter of 4500 mm and a total length - main engine excluded - of 2700 mm. It is fitted with four solar array wings with a span of 18.8 m. Its dry mass is 3.5 metric tons and it can carry 8.6 tons of propellant. The main functions of the European Service Module are to bring the structural continuity between the launcher and the crew module, to provide propulsion to the MPCV, to ensure its thermal control as well as electrical power and to store water, oxygen and nitrogen for the mission. The current agreement foresees the development and production by Europe of one flight model, with an option for a second one. This module will be assembled in Europe and delivered to NASA in 2016. It will be used for a flight of the MPCV Orion in December 2017.

The Multi-purpose Crew Vehicle European Service Module: a European Contribution to Human Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berthe, Philippe; Schubert, Kathleen; Grantier, Julie; Pietsch, Klaus; Angelillo, Philippe; Price, Laurence

2013-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the system and subsystem configuration of the MPCV European Service Module (ESM) at Preliminary Design Review (PDR) stage as well as its perspectives of utilisation within the global space exploration endeavour. The MPCV ESM is a cylindrical module with a diameter of 4500 mm and a total length – main engine excluded – of 2700 mm. It is fitted with four solar array wings with a span of 18.8 m. Its dry mass is 3.5 metric tons and it can carry 8.6 tons of propellant. The main functions of the European Service Module are to bring the structural continuity between the launcher and the crew module, to provide propulsion to the MPCV, to ensure its thermal control as well as electrical power and to store water, oxygen and nitrogen for the mission. The current agreement foresees the development and production by Europe of one flight model, with an option for a second one. This module will be assembled in Europe and delivered to NASA in 2016. It will be used for a flight of the MPCV Orion in December 2017.

Enhancing Combat Survivability of Existing Unmanned Aircraft Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-12-01

EL/K-1861 ...........................................................30 Figure 15. RQ-4 Global Hawk Communications Architecture Showing Various...ELINT Electronic Intelligence ESM Electronic Support Measures EW Electronic Warfare EO Electro-Optics FLIR Forward Looking Infrared GPS Global ...system performance (speed, altitude, maneuverability, and agility) reduces susceptibility through system design. The RQ-4 Global Hawk is designed to fly

Design and development of a community carbon cycle benchmarking system for CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mu, M.; Hoffman, F. M.; Lawrence, D. M.; Riley, W. J.; Keppel-Aleks, G.; Randerson, J. T.

2013-12-01

Benchmarking has been widely used to assess the ability of atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface models to capture the spatial and temporal variability of observations during the historical period. For the carbon cycle and terrestrial ecosystems, the design and development of an open-source community platform has been an important goal as part of the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) project. Here we designed and developed a software system that enables the user to specify the models, benchmarks, and scoring systems so that results can be tailored to specific model intercomparison projects. We used this system to evaluate the performance of CMIP5 Earth system models (ESMs). Our scoring system used information from four different aspects of climate, including the climatological mean spatial pattern of gridded surface variables, seasonal cycle dynamics, the amplitude of interannual variability, and long-term decadal trends. We used this system to evaluate burned area, global biomass stocks, net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production, and ecosystem respiration from CMIP5 historical simulations. Initial results indicated that the multi-model mean often performed better than many of the individual models for most of the observational constraints.

Highly Efficient Catalysis of Azo Dyes Using Recyclable Silver Nanoparticles Immobilized on Tannic Acid-Grafted Eggshell Membrane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaojing; Liang, Miao; Liu, Mingyue; Su, Rongxin; Wang, Mengfan; Qi, Wei; He, Zhimin

2016-10-01

In this study, a facile one-step synthesis of a novel nanocomposite catalytic film was developed based on silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) immobilized in tannic acid-modified eggshell membrane (Tan-ESM). Tannic acid, as a typical plant polyphenol from oak wood, was first grafted onto ESM fibers to serve as both the reductant and the stabilizer during the synthesis of AgNPs. The morphology, constitution, and thermal stability of the resulting AgNPs@Tan-ESM composites were fully characterized to explain the excellent catalytic efficiency of AgNPs@Tan-ESM composites. These composite catalysts were applied to the degradation of azo dyes which exhibited the high catalytic activity toward Congo red and methyl orange according to the kinetic curves. More importantly, they can be easily recovered and reused for many times because of their good stability.

Network Monitoring and Diagnosis Based on Available Bandwidth Measurement

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-05-01

Ganjam for helping me integrating the TAMI system with the ESM system, which becomes an important application of TAMI. I want to thank Ming Zhang, now...network monitoring. In Proc. ACM SIGCOMM, August 2004. [35] Yanghua Chu, Aditya Ganjam , T. S. Eugene Ng, Sanjay G. Rao, Kunwadee Sri- panidkulchai

Effects of climate change on the survival of larval cod

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristiansen, T.; Stock, C. A.; Drinkwater, K. F.; Curchitser, E. N.

2011-12-01

Understanding how climate change may impact important commercial fisheries is critical for developing sustainable fisheries management strategies. In this study, we used simulations from an Earth System Model (NOAA GFDL ESM2.1) coupled with an individual-based model (IBM) for larval fish to provide a first assessment of the potential importance of climate-change driven changes in primary productivity and temperature on cod recruitment in the North Atlantic to the year 2100. ESM model output was averaged for 5 regions, each with an area of 5x5 on a latitude-longitude grid, and representing the geographic boundaries of the current cod range. The physical and environmental data were incorporated into a mechanistic IBM used to simulate the critical early phases in the life of larval fish (e.g. cod) in a changing environment. Large phytoplankton production was predicted to decrease in most regions, thereby lowering the number of meso-zooplankton in the water column. Meso-zooplankton is the most important prey item for larval cod and a reduction in their numbers have strong impacts on larval cod survival. The combination of lowered prey abundance with increased energy requirement for growth and metabolism through increased temperature had a negative impact on cod recruitment in all modeled regions of the North Atlantic. The probability of survival past the larval stages was reduced with 20-30% at all five spawning grounds by the year 2100. Together, these results suggest climate change could have significant impacts on the survival of larval cod in the North Atlantic.

Impact of tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature biases on the simulated atmospheric circulation and precipitation over the Atlantic region: An ECHAM6 model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eichhorn, Astrid; Bader, Jürgen

2017-09-01

As many coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, the coupled Earth System Model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology suffers from severe sea-surface temperature (SST) biases in the tropical Atlantic. We performed a set of SST sensitivity experiments with its atmospheric model component ECHAM6 to understand the impact of tropical Atlantic SST biases on atmospheric circulation and precipitation. The model was forced by a climatology of observed global SSTs to focus on simulated seasonal and annual mean state climate. Through the superposition of varying tropical Atlantic bias patterns extracted from the MPI-ESM on top of the control field, this study investigates the relevance of the seasonal variation and spatial structure of tropical Atlantic biases for the simulated response. Results show that the position and structure of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) across the Atlantic is significantly affected, exhibiting a dynamically forced shift of annual mean precipitation maximum to the east of the Atlantic basin as well as a southward shift of the oceanic rain belt. The SST-induced changes in the ITCZ in turn affect seasonal rainfall over adjacent continents. However not only the ITCZ position but also other effects arising from biases in tropical Atlantic SSTs, e.g. variations in the wind field, change the simulation of precipitation over land. The seasonal variation and spatial pattern of tropical Atlantic SST biases turns out to be crucial for the simulated atmospheric response and is essential for analyzing the contribution of SST biases to coupled model mean state biases. Our experiments show that MPI-ESM mean-state biases in the Atlantic sector are mainly driven by SST biases in the tropical Atlantic while teleconnections from other basins seem to play a minor role.

Design-Load Basis for LANL Structures, Systems, and Components

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

I. Cuesta

2004-09-01

This document supports the recommendations in the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Engineering Standard Manual (ESM), Chapter 5--Structural providing the basis for the loads, analysis procedures, and codes to be used in the ESM. It also provides the justification for eliminating the loads to be considered in design, and evidence that the design basis loads are appropriate and consistent with the graded approach required by the Department of Energy (DOE) Code of Federal Regulation Nuclear Safety Management, 10, Part 830. This document focuses on (1) the primary and secondary natural phenomena hazards listed in DOE-G-420.1-2, Appendix C, (2) additional loadsmore » not related to natural phenomena hazards, and (3) the design loads on structures during construction.« less

Life support approaches for Mars missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drysdale, A. E.; Ewert, M. K.; Hanford, A. J.

Life support approaches for Mars missions are evaluated using an equivalent system mass (ESM) approach, in which all significant costs are converted into mass units. The best approach, as defined by the lowest mission ESM, depends on several mission parameters, notably duration, environment and consequent infrastructure costs, and crew size, as well as the characteristics of the technologies which are available. Generally, for the missions under consideration, physicochemical regeneration is most cost effective. However, bioregeneration is likely to be of use for producing salad crops for any mission, for producing staple crops for medium duration missions, and for most food, air and water regeneration for long missions (durations of a decade). Potential applications of in situ resource utilization need to be considered further.

Reduced Future Precipitation Makes Permanence of Amazonian Carbon Sinks Questionable

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arora, V.

2011-12-01

The tropical forests of the Amazon, considered as a tipping element in Earth's climate system, provide several ecosystem services including the maintenance of favourable regional climatic conditions in the region and storage of large amounts of carbon in their above- and below-ground pools. While it is nearly impossible, at present, to put a dollar value on these ecosystem services, the developed countries have started paying large sums of money to developing countries in the tropics to reduce deforestation. Norway recently committed up to $1 billion to the Amazon fund. The United Nations' Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD) program also financially supports national activities of 13 countries worldwide. The primary assumption inherent in paying for avoiding deforestation is that avoided land use change emissions contribute towards climate change mitigation. In addition, the standing forests that are spared deforestation contribute towards additional carbon sinks associated with the CO2 fertilization effect. Implicit in this reasoning is the understanding that the carbon sinks provided by avoided deforestation have some "permanence" associated with them, at least in the order of 50-100 years. Clearly, if "avoided deforestation" is essentially "delayed deforestation" then the benefits will not be long lasting. More importantly, changes in climate have the potential to adversely affect the permanence of carbon sinks, whether they are being paid for or not. This presentation will address the question of "permanence" by analyzing simulations of the second generation Canadian Earth system model (CanESM2) that are contributing results to the upcoming fifth Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). CanESM2 results for the future RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios show, that due to reduced future precipitation, the Amazonian region remains a net source of carbon over the 21st century in all scenarios. The carbon losses during the recent 2005 and 2010 droughts in the Amazonian region nearly wiped away the gains made during a decade indicating that the era of intact Amazonian forests acting as carbon sinks may be over. CanESM2 simulations imply that the future of the Amazonian region may look more like these drought years, suggesting that the future reduced precipitation over the region can indeed "tip over" the Amazonian forests.

Effects of snow grain non-sphericity on climate simulations: Sensitivity tests with the NorESM model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Räisänen, Petri; Makkonen, Risto; Kirkevåg, Alf

2017-04-01

Snow grains are non-spherical and generally irregular in shape. Still, in radiative transfer calculations, they are often treated as spheres. This also applies to the computation of snow albedo in the Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR) model and in the Los Alamos sea ice model, version 4 (CICE4), both of which are employed in the Community Earth System Model and in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). In this work, we evaluate the effect of snow grain shape on climate simulated by NorESM in a slab ocean configuration of the model. An experiment with spherical snow grains (SPH) is compared with another (NONSPH) in which the snow shortwave single-scattering properties are based on a combination of non-spherical snow grain shapes optimized using measurements of angular scattering by blowing snow. The key difference between these treatments is that the asymmetry parameter is smaller in the non-spherical case (≈ 0.78 in the visible region) than in the spherical case (≈ 0.89). Therefore, for a given snow grain size, the use of non-spherical snow grains yields a higher snow broadband albedo, typically by ≈0.03. Consequently, considering the spherical case as the baseline, the use of non-spherical snow grains results in a negative radiative forcing (RF), with a global-mean top-of-the-model value of ≈ -0.22 W m-2. Although this global-mean RF is modest, it has a rather substantial impact on the climate simulated by NoRESM. In particular, the global annual-mean 2-m air temperature in NONSPH is 1.17 K lower than in SPH, with substantially larger differences at high latitudes. The climatic response is amplified by strong snow and sea ice feedbacks. It is further found that the difference between NONSPH and SPH could be largely "tuned away" by adjusting the snow grain size in the NONSPH experiment by ≈ 70%. The impact of snow grain shape on the radiative effect (RE) of absorbing aerosols in snow (black carbon and mineral dust) is also discussed. For an optically thick snowpack with a given snow grain effective size, the absorbing aerosol RE is smaller for non-spherical than for spherical snow grains. The reason for this is that due to the lower asymmetry parameter of the non-spherical snow grains, solar radiation does not penetrate as deep in snow as in the case of spherical snow grains. However, in a climate model simulation, the RE is sensitive to patterns of aerosol deposition and simulated snow cover. In fact, the global land-area mean absorbing aerosol RE is larger in the NONSPH than SPH experiment (0.193 vs. 0.168 W m-2), owing to later snowmelt in spring.

Using observations to evaluate biosphere-atmosphere interactions in models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, Julia; Konings, Alexandra G.; Alemohammad, Seyed H.; Gentine, Pierre

2017-04-01

Biosphere-atmosphere interactions influence the hydrologic cycle by altering climate and weather patterns (Charney, 1975; Koster et al., 2006; Seneviratne et al., 2006), contributing up to 30% of precipitation and radiation variability in certain regions (Green et al., 2017). They have been shown to contribute to the persistence of drought in Europe (Seneviratne et al., 2006), as well as to increase rainfall in the Amazon (Spracklen et al., 2012). Thus, a true representation of these feedbacks in Earth System Models (ESMs) is crucial for accurate forecasting and planning. However, it has been difficult to validate the performance of ESMs since often-times surface and atmospheric flux data are scarce and/or difficult to observe. In this study, we use the results of a new global observational study (using remotely sensed solar-induced fluorescence to represent the biosphere flux) (Green et al., 2017) to determine how well a suite of 13 ESMs capture biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks. We perform a Conditional Multivariate Granger Causality analysis in the frequency domain with radiation, precipitation and temperature as atmospheric inputs and GPP as the biospheric input. Performing the analysis in the frequency domain allows for separation of feedbacks at different time-scales (subseasonal, seasonal or interannual). Our findings can be used to determine whether there is agreement between models, as well as, to pinpoint regions or time-scales of model bias or inaccuracy, which will provide insight on potential improvement. We demonstrate that in addition to the well-known problem of convective parameterization over land in models, the main issue in representing feedbacks between the land and the atmosphere is due to the misrepresentation of water stress. These results provide a direct quantitative assessment of feedbacks in models and how to improve them. References: Charney, J.G. Dynamics of deserts and drought in the Sahel. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 101, 193-202 (1975). Green, J.K., Konings, A.G., Alemohammad, S.H., Berry, J., Entekhabi, D., Kolassa, J., Lee, J.E., Gentine, P. Hotspots of terrestrial biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks. In review. (2017). Koster, R. D. et al. GLACE: The Global Land - Atmosphere Coupling Experiment. Part I: Overview. J. Hydrometeorol. 7, 611-625 (2006). Seneviratne, S.I., Lüthi, D., Litschi M., Schär, C. Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe. Nature 443, 205-209 (2006). Spracklen, D.V, Arnold, S.R., Taylor, C.M. Observations of increased tropical rainfall preceded by air passage over forests. Nature 489, 282-285 (2012).

Electron transport estimated from electron spectra using electron spectrometer in LFEX laser target experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozaki, T.; Hata, M.; Matsuo, K.; Kojima, S.; Arikawa, Y.; Fujioka, S.; Sakagami, H.; Sunahara, A.; Nagatomo, H.; Johzaki, T.; Yogo, A.; Morace, A.; Zhang, Z.; Shiraga, H.; Sakata, S.; Nagai, T.; Abe, Y.; Lee, S.; Nakai, M.; Nishimura, H.; Azechi, H.; FIREX Group; GXII-LFEX Group

2016-05-01

Hot electrons which are generated from targets irradiated by a high-intense laser are measured by two electron spectrometers (ESMs). However, total electron energy observed by the ESM is only less than 1%. Hot electrons are confined by self-fields due to the huge current. When an external magnetic field of several hundred Tesla is applied during the laser irradiation on targets, the ESM signals always increase. In the simulation, the same result can be obtained. The reason is that the Alfvén limit can be mitigated due to the external longitudinal magnetic field.

Automatic integration of data from dissimilar sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Citrin, W. I.; Proue, R. W.; Thomas, J. W.

The present investigation is concerned with the automatic integration of radar and electronic support measures (ESM) sensor data, and with the development of a method for the automatical integration of identification friend or foe (IFF) and radar sensor data. On the basis of the two considered proojects, significant advances have been made in the areas of sensor data integration. It is pointed out that the log likelihood approach in sensor data correlation is appropriate for both similar and dissimilar sensor data. Attention is given to the real time integration of radar and ESM sensor data, and a radar ESM correlation simulation program.

Statistical downscaling of mean temperature, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature on the Loess Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Jiang; Miao, Chiyuan

2017-04-01

Climate change is considered to be one of the greatest environmental threats. This has urged scientific communities to focus on the hot topic. Global climate models (GCMs) are the primary tool used for studying climate change. However, GCMs are limited because of their coarse spatial resolution and inability to resolve important sub-grid scale features such as terrain and clouds. Statistical downscaling methods can be used to downscale large-scale variables to local-scale. In this study, we assess the applicability of the widely used Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) for the Loess Plateau, China. The observed variables included daily mean temperature (TMEAN), maximum temperature (TMAX) and minimum temperature (TMIN) from 1961 to 2005. The and the daily atmospheric data were taken from reanalysis data from 1961 to 2005, and global climate model outputs from Beijing Normal University Earth System Model (BNU-ESM) from 1961 to 2099 and from observations . The results show that SDSM performs well for these three climatic variables on the Loess Plateau. After downscaling, the root mean square errors for TMEAN, TMAX, TMIN for BNU-ESM were reduced by 70.9%, 75.1%, and 67.2%, respectively. All the rates of change in TMEAN, TMAX and TMIN during the 21st century decreased after SDSM downscaling. We also show that SDSM can effectively reduce uncertainty, compared with the raw model outputs. TMEAN uncertainty was reduced by 27.1%, 26.8%, and 16.3% for the future scenarios of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The corresponding reductions in uncertainty were 23.6%, 30.7%, and 18.7% for TMAX, ; and 37.6%, 31.8%, and 23.2% for TMIN.

Marine cloud brightening – as effective without clouds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ahlm, Lars; Jones, Andy; Stjern, Camilla W.

Marine cloud brightening through sea spray injection has been proposed as a climate engineering method for avoiding the most severe consequences of global warming. A limitation of most of the previous modelling studies on marine cloud brightening is that they have either considered individual models or only investigated the effects of a specific increase in the number of cloud droplets. Here we present results from coordinated simulations with three Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G4sea-salt experiment. Injection rates of accumulation-mode sea spray aerosol particles over ocean between 30°N and 30°S are set in each model tomore » generate a global-mean effective radiative forcing (ERF) of –2.0 W m –2 at the top of the atmosphere. We find that the injection increases the cloud droplet number concentration in lower layers, reduces the cloud-top effective droplet radius, and increases the cloud optical depth over the injection area. We also find, however, that the global-mean clear-sky ERF by the injected particles is as large as the corresponding total ERF in all three ESMs, indicating a large potential of the aerosol direct effect in regions of low cloudiness. The largest enhancement in ERF due to the presence of clouds occur as expected in the subtropical stratocumulus regions off the west coasts of the American and African continents. However, outside these regions, the ERF is in general equally large in cloudy and clear-sky conditions. Lastly, these findings suggest a more important role of the aerosol direct effect in sea spray climate engineering than previously thought.« less

Marine cloud brightening – as effective without clouds

DOE PAGES

Ahlm, Lars; Jones, Andy; Stjern, Camilla W.; ...

2017-11-06

Marine cloud brightening through sea spray injection has been proposed as a climate engineering method for avoiding the most severe consequences of global warming. A limitation of most of the previous modelling studies on marine cloud brightening is that they have either considered individual models or only investigated the effects of a specific increase in the number of cloud droplets. Here we present results from coordinated simulations with three Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G4sea-salt experiment. Injection rates of accumulation-mode sea spray aerosol particles over ocean between 30°N and 30°S are set in each model tomore » generate a global-mean effective radiative forcing (ERF) of –2.0 W m –2 at the top of the atmosphere. We find that the injection increases the cloud droplet number concentration in lower layers, reduces the cloud-top effective droplet radius, and increases the cloud optical depth over the injection area. We also find, however, that the global-mean clear-sky ERF by the injected particles is as large as the corresponding total ERF in all three ESMs, indicating a large potential of the aerosol direct effect in regions of low cloudiness. The largest enhancement in ERF due to the presence of clouds occur as expected in the subtropical stratocumulus regions off the west coasts of the American and African continents. However, outside these regions, the ERF is in general equally large in cloudy and clear-sky conditions. Lastly, these findings suggest a more important role of the aerosol direct effect in sea spray climate engineering than previously thought.« less

The impact of geoengineering on vegetation in experiment G1 of the GeoMIP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glienke, Susanne; Irvine, Peter J.; Lawrence, Mark G.

2015-10-01

Solar Radiation Management (SRM) has been proposed as a mean to partly counteract global warming. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) has simulated the climate consequences of a number of SRM techniques. Thus far, the effects on vegetation have not yet been thoroughly analyzed. Here the vegetation response to the idealized GeoMIP G1 experiment from eight fully coupled Earth system models (ESMs) is analyzed, in which a reduction of the solar constant counterbalances the radiative effects of quadrupled atmospheric CO2 concentrations (abrupt4 × CO2). For most models and regions, changes in net primary productivity (NPP) are dominated by the increase in CO2, via the CO2 fertilization effect. As SRM will reduce temperatures relative to abrupt4 × CO2, in high latitudes this will offset increases in NPP. In low latitudes, this cooling relative to the abrupt4 × CO2 simulation decreases plant respiration while having little effect on gross primary productivity, thus increasing NPP. In Central America and the Mediterranean, generally dry regions which are expected to experience increased water stress with global warming, NPP is highest in the G1 experiment for all models due to the easing of water limitations from increased water use efficiency at high-CO2 concentrations and the reduced evaporative demand in a geoengineered climate. The largest differences in the vegetation response are between models with and without a nitrogen cycle, with a much smaller CO2 fertilization effect for the former. These results suggest that until key vegetation processes are integrated into ESM predictions, the vegetation response to SRM will remain highly uncertain.

Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giorgetta, Marco A.; Jungclaus, Johann; Reick, Christian H.; Legutke, Stephanie; Bader, Jürgen; Böttinger, Michael; Brovkin, Victor; Crueger, Traute; Esch, Monika; Fieg, Kerstin; Glushak, Ksenia; Gayler, Veronika; Haak, Helmuth; Hollweg, Heinz-Dieter; Ilyina, Tatiana; Kinne, Stefan; Kornblueh, Luis; Matei, Daniela; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Mueller, Wolfgang; Notz, Dirk; Pithan, Felix; Raddatz, Thomas; Rast, Sebastian; Redler, Rene; Roeckner, Erich; Schmidt, Hauke; Schnur, Reiner; Segschneider, Joachim; Six, Katharina D.; Stockhause, Martina; Timmreck, Claudia; Wegner, Jörg; Widmann, Heinrich; Wieners, Karl-H.; Claussen, Martin; Marotzke, Jochem; Stevens, Bjorn

2013-07-01

The new Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) is used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in a series of climate change experiments for either idealized CO2-only forcing or forcings based on observations and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The paper gives an overview of the model configurations, experiments related forcings, and initialization procedures and presents results for the simulated changes in climate and carbon cycle. It is found that the climate feedback depends on the global warming and possibly the forcing history. The global warming from climatological 1850 conditions to 2080-2100 ranges from 1.5°C under the RCP2.6 scenario to 4.4°C under the RCP8.5 scenario. Over this range, the patterns of temperature and precipitation change are nearly independent of the global warming. The model shows a tendency to reduce the ocean heat uptake efficiency toward a warmer climate, and hence acceleration in warming in the later years. The precipitation sensitivity can be as high as 2.5% K-1 if the CO2 concentration is constant, or as small as 1.6% K-1, if the CO2 concentration is increasing. The oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon increases over time in all scenarios, being smallest in the experiment forced by RCP2.6 and largest in that for RCP8.5. The land also serves as a net carbon sink in all scenarios, predominantly in boreal regions. The strong tropical carbon sources found in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 experiments are almost absent in the RCP4.5 experiment, which can be explained by reforestation in the RCP4.5 scenario.

Self-consistent modelling of electrochemical strain microscopy in mixed ionic-electronic conductors: Nonlinear and dynamic regimes

DOE PAGES

Varenyk, O. V.; Silibin, M. V.; Kiselev, Dmitri A.; ...

2015-08-19

The frequency dependent Electrochemical Strain Microscopy (ESM) response of mixed ionic-electronic conductors is analyzed within the framework of Fermi-Dirac statistics and the Vegard law, accounting for steric effects from mobile donors. The emergence of dynamic charge waves and nonlinear deformation of the surface in response to bias applied to the tip-surface junction is numerically explored. The 2D maps of the strain and concentration distributions across the mixed ionic-electronic conductor and bias-induced surface displacements are calculated. Furthermore, the obtained numerical results can be applied to quantify the ESM response of Li-based solid electrolytes, materials with resistive switching, and electroactive ferroelectric polymers,more » which are of potential interest for flexible and high-density non-volatile memory devices.« less

Self-consistent modelling of electrochemical strain microscopy in mixed ionic-electronic conductors: Nonlinear and dynamic regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varenyk, O. V.; Silibin, M. V.; Kiselev, D. A.; Eliseev, E. A.; Kalinin, S. V.; Morozovska, A. N.

2015-08-01

The frequency dependent Electrochemical Strain Microscopy (ESM) response of mixed ionic-electronic conductors is analyzed within the framework of Fermi-Dirac statistics and the Vegard law, accounting for steric effects from mobile donors. The emergence of dynamic charge waves and nonlinear deformation of the surface in response to bias applied to the tip-surface junction is numerically explored. The 2D maps of the strain and concentration distributions across the mixed ionic-electronic conductor and bias-induced surface displacements are calculated. The obtained numerical results can be applied to quantify the ESM response of Li-based solid electrolytes, materials with resistive switching, and electroactive ferroelectric polymers, which are of potential interest for flexible and high-density non-volatile memory devices.

Language Mapping in Multilingual Patients: Electrocorticography and Cortical Stimulation During Naming

PubMed Central

Cervenka, Mackenzie C.; Boatman-Reich, Dana F.; Ward, Julianna; Franaszczuk, Piotr J.; Crone, Nathan E.

2011-01-01

Multilingual patients pose a unique challenge when planning epilepsy surgery near language cortex because the cortical representations of each language may be distinct. These distinctions may not be evident with routine electrocortical stimulation mapping (ESM). Electrocorticography (ECoG) has recently been used to detect task-related spectral perturbations associated with functional brain activation. We hypothesized that using broadband high gamma augmentation (HGA, 60–150 Hz) as an index of cortical activation, ECoG would complement ESM in discriminating the cortical representations of first (L1) and second (L2) languages. We studied four adult patients for whom English was a second language, in whom subdural electrodes (a total of 358) were implanted to guide epilepsy surgery. Patients underwent ECoG recordings and ESM while performing the same visual object naming task in L1 and L2. In three of four patients, ECoG found sites activated during naming in one language but not the other. These language-specific sites were not identified using ESM. In addition, ECoG HGA was observed at more sites during L2 versus L1 naming in two patients, suggesting that L2 processing required additional cortical resources compared to L1 processing in these individuals. Post-operative language deficits were identified in three patients (one in L2 only). These deficits were predicted by ECoG spectral mapping but not by ESM. These results suggest that pre-surgical mapping should include evaluation of all utilized languages to avoid post-operative functional deficits. Finally, this study suggests that ECoG spectral mapping may potentially complement the results of ESM of language. PMID:21373361

A prospective study comparing endoscopic subcutaneous mastectomy plus immediate reconstruction with implants and breast conserving surgery for breast cancer.

PubMed

Fan, Lin-Jun; Jiang, Jun; Yang, Xin-Hua; Zhang, Yi; Li, Xing-Gang; Chen, Xian-Chun; Zhong, Ling

2009-12-20

Breast conserving surgery (BCS) has been the standard surgical procedure for the treatment of early breast cancer. Endoscopic subcutaneous mastectomy (ESM) plus immediate reconstruction with implants is an emerging procedure. The objective of this prospective study was to evaluate the clinical outcomes of these two surgical procedures in our clinical setting. From March 2004 to October 2007, 43 patients with breast cancer underwent ESM plus axillary lymph node dissection and immediate reconstruction with implants, while 54 patients underwent BCS. The clinical and pathological characteristics, surgical safety, and therapeutic effects were compared between the two groups. There were no significant differences in the age, clinical stage, histopathologic type of tumor, operative blood loss, postoperative drainage time, and postoperative complications between the two groups (P > 0.05). The postoperative complications were partial necrosis of the nipple and superficial skin flap in the ESM patients, and hydrops in the axilla and residual cavity in the BCS patients. There was no significant difference in the rate of satisfactory postoperative cosmetic outcomes between the ESM (88.4%, 38/43) and BCS (92.6%, 50/54) patients (P > 0.05). During follow-up of 6 months to 4 years, all patients treated with ESM were disease-free, but 3 patients who underwent BCS had metastasis or recurrence -one of these patients died of multiple organ metastasis. After considering the wide indications for use, high surgical safety, and favorable cosmetic outcomes, we conclude that ESM plus axillary lymph node dissection and immediate reconstruction with implants - the new surgery of choice for breast cancer - warrants serious consideration as the prospective next standard surgical procedure.

Continental Asymmetry in Climate-Induced Tropical Drought: Driving Mechanisms and Ecosystem Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randerson, J. T.; Swann, A. L. S.; Koven, C. D.; Hoffman, F. M.; Chen, Y.

2015-12-01

Current theory does not adequately explain diverging patterns of future drought stress predicted by Earth system models (ESMs) across tropical South America, Africa, and equatorial Asia. By 2100 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) many models predict significant decreases in precipitation across northeastern South America and Central America. In contrast, most models predict increasing levels of precipitation across tropical Africa and equatorial Asia. Using the Community Earth System Model v1.0 with RCP8.5 simulations to 2300, we found that this longitudinal precipitation asymmetry intensified over time and as a consequence, terrestrial carbon losses from the neotropics were considerably higher than those in Africa and Asia. Carbon losses in some areas of the Amazon in a fully coupled simulation exceeded 15 kg C per m2 by 2300, relative to estimates from a biogeochemically-forced simulation in which atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases did not influence the atmospheric radiation budget. Variations in the amount of neotropical drying varied considerably among CMIP5 ESMs, and we used several types of analysis to identify driving mechanisms and to reduce uncertainties associated with these projections. CMIP5 models in general underestimated North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Models that more accurately simulated North Atlantic SSTs during the historical era had smaller mean precipitation biases and predicted greater neotropical forest drying than other models. This suggests that future drought stress in northern South America and Central America may be larger than estimates derived from the multi-model mean. Analysis of idealized radiatively coupled, biogeochemically coupled and fully coupled CMIP5 model simulations indicated that the direct effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide on plant physiology also was an important factor driving asymmetric precipitation change across the tropics, and had a similar pattern as changes induced solely from greenhouse gas effects on atmospheric radiation. We conclude by discussing the implications of the continental drought asymmetry for the vulnerability of tropical forests to fire, agriculture, and tree mortality.

Microbial Priming and Protected Carbon Responses to Elevated CO2 at Local to Global Scales: a New Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulman, B. N.; Oishi, C.; Shevliakova, E.; Pacala, S. W.

2013-12-01

The soil carbon formulations commonly used in global carbon cycle models and Earth System models (ESMs) are based on first-order decomposition equations, where turnover of carbon is determined only by the size of the carbon pool and empirical functions of responses to temperature and moisture. These models do not include microbial dynamics or protection of carbon in microaggregates and mineral complexes, making them incapable of simulating important soil processes like priming and the influence of soil physical structure on carbon turnover. We present a new soil carbon dynamics model - Carbon, Organisms, Respiration, and Protection in the Soil Environment (CORPSE) - that explicitly represents microbial biomass and protected carbon pools. The model includes multiple types of carbon with different chemically determined turnover rates that interact with a single dynamic microbial biomass pool, allowing the model to simulate priming effects. The model also includes the formation and turnover of protected carbon that is inaccessible to microbial decomposers. The rate of protected carbon formation increases with microbial biomass. CORPSE has been implemented both as a stand-alone model and as a component of the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) ESM. We calibrated the model against measured soil carbon stocks from the Duke FACE experiment. The model successfully simulated the seasonal pattern of heterotrophic CO2 production. We investigated the roles of priming and protection in soil carbon accumulation by running the model using measured inputs of leaf litter, fine roots, and root exudates from the ambient and elevated CO2 plots at the Duke FACE experiment. Measurements from the experiment showed that elevated CO2 caused enhanced root exudation, increasing soil carbon turnover in the rhizosphere due to priming effects. We tested the impact of increased root exudation on soil carbon accumulation by comparing model simulations of carbon accumulation under elevated CO2 with and without increased root exudation. Increased root exudation stimulated microbial activity in the model, resulting in reduced accumulation of chemically recalcitrant carbon, but increasing the formation of protected carbon. This indicates that elevated CO2 could cause decreases in soil carbon storage despite increases in productivity in ecosystems where protection of soil carbon is limited. These effects have important implications for simulations of soil carbon response to elevated CO2 in current terrestrial carbon cycle models. The CORPSE model has been implemented in LM3, the terrestrial component of the GFDL ESM. In addition to the functionality described above, this model adds vertically resolved carbon pools and vertical transfers of carbon, leading to a decrease in carbon turnover rates with depth due to leaching of priming agents from the surface. We present preliminary global simulations using this model, including the variation of microbial activity and protected carbon with latitude and the resulting impacts on the sensitivity of soil carbon to climatic warming.

Launch device using endlessly single-mode PCF for ultra-wideband WDM transmission in graded-index multi-mode fiber.

PubMed

Ma, Lin; Hanzawa, Nobutomo; Tsujikawa, Kyozo; Azuma, Yuji

2012-10-22

We demonstrated ultra-wideband wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) transmission from 850 to 1550 nm in graded-index multi-mode fiber (GI-MMF) using endlessly single-mode photonic crystal fiber (ESM-PCF) as a launch device. Effective single-mode guidance is obtained in multi-mode fiber at all wavelengths by splicing cm-order length ESM-PCF to the transmission fiber. We achieved 3 × 10 Gbit/s WDM transmission in a 1 km-long 50-μm-core GI-MMF. We also realized penalty free 10 Gbit/s data transmission at a wavelength of 850 nm by optimizing the PCF structure. This method has the potential to achieve greater total transmission capacity for MMF systems by the addition of more wavelength channels.

Life support approaches for Mars missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drysdale, A. E.; Ewert, M. K.; Hanford, A. J.

2003-01-01

Life support approaches for Mars missions are evaluated using an equivalent system mass (ESM) approach, in which all significant costs are converted into mass units. The best approach, as defined by the lowest mission ESM, depends on several mission parameters, notably duration, environment and consequent infrastructure costs, and crew size, as well as the characteristics of the technologies which are available. Generally, for the missions under consideration, physicochemical regeneration is most cost effective. However, bioregeneration is likely to be of use for producing salad crops for any mission, for producing staple crops for medium duration missions, and for most food, air and water regeneration for long missions (durations of a decade). Potential applications of in situ resource utilization need to be considered further. c2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Life support approaches for Mars missions.

PubMed

Drysdale, A E; Ewert, M K; Hanford, A J

2003-01-01

Life support approaches for Mars missions are evaluated using an equivalent system mass (ESM) approach, in which all significant costs are converted into mass units. The best approach, as defined by the lowest mission ESM, depends on several mission parameters, notably duration, environment and consequent infrastructure costs, and crew size, as well as the characteristics of the technologies which are available. Generally, for the missions under consideration, physicochemical regeneration is most cost effective. However, bioregeneration is likely to be of use for producing salad crops for any mission, for producing staple crops for medium duration missions, and for most food, air and water regeneration for long missions (durations of a decade). Potential applications of in situ resource utilization need to be considered further. c2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Time dependency of the prediction skill for the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in initialized decadal hindcasts with MPI-ESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brune, Sebastian; Düsterhus, Andre; Pohlmann, Holger; Müller, Wolfgang; Baehr, Johanna

2017-04-01

We analyze the time dependency of decadal hindcast skill in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre within the time period 1961-2013. We compare anomaly correlation coefficients and interquartile ranges of total upper ocean heat content and sea surface temperature for three differently initialized sets of hindcast simulations with the global coupled model MPI-ESM. All initializations use weakly coupled assimilation with the same full-field nudging in the atmospheric component and different assimilation techniques for oceanic temperature and salinity: (1) ensemble Kalman filter assimilating EN4 and HadISST observations, (2) nudging of anomalies to ORAS4 reanalysis, (3) nudging of full values to ORAS4 reanalysis. We find that hindcast skill depends strongly on the evaluation time period, with higher hindcast skill during strong multiyear trends and lower hindcast skill in the absence of such trends. While there may only be small differences between the prediction systems in the analysis focusing on the entire hindcast period, these differences between the hindcast systems are much more pronounced when investigating any 20-year subperiod within the entire hindcast period. For the ensemble Kalman filter high skill in the assimilation experiment is generally linked to high skill in the initialized hindcasts. Such direct link does not seem to exist in the hindcasts initialized by either nudged system. In the ensemble Kalman filter initialized hindcasts, we find significant hindcast skill for up to 5 to 8 lead years, except for the 1970s. In the nudged system initialized hindcasts, hindcast skill is consistently diminished in lead years 2 and 3 with lowest skill in the 1970s as well. Overall, we find that a model-consistent assimilation technique can improve hindcast skill. Further, the evaluation of 20 year subperiods within the full hindcast period provides essential insights to judge the success of both the assimilation and the subsequent hindcast skill.

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, P. J.; Blackport, R.

2016-12-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them.

The Southern Ocean as a constraint to reduce uncertainty in future ocean carbon sinks

DOE PAGES

Kessler, A.; Tjiputra, J.

2016-04-07

Earth system model (ESM) simulations exhibit large biases compares to observation-based estimates of the present ocean CO 2 sink. The inter-model spread in projections increases nearly 2-fold by the end of the 21st century and therefore contributes significantly to the uncertainty of future climate projections. In this study, the Southern Ocean (SO) is shown to be one of the hot-spot regions for future uptake of anthropogenic CO 2, characterized by both the solubility pump and biologically mediated carbon drawdown in the spring and summer. Here, we show, by analyzing a suite of fully interactive ESMs simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparisonmore » Project phase 5 (CMIP5) over the 21st century under the high-CO 2 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, that the SO is the only region where the atmospheric CO 2 uptake rate continues to increase toward the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, our study discovers a strong inter-model link between the contemporary CO 2 uptake in the Southern Ocean and the projected global cumulated uptake over the 21st century. This strong correlation suggests that models with low (high) carbon uptake rate in the contemporary SO tend to simulate low (high) uptake rate in the future. None the less, our analysis also shows that none of the models fully capture the observed biophysical mechanisms governing the CO 2 fluxes in the SO. The inter-model spread for the contemporary CO 2 uptake in the Southern Ocean is attributed to the variations in the simulated seasonal cycle of surface pCO 2. Two groups of model behavior have been identified. The first one simulates anomalously strong SO carbon uptake, generally due to both too strong a net primary production and too low a surface pCO 2 in December–January. The second group simulates an opposite CO 2 flux seasonal phase, which is driven mainly by the bias in the sea surface temperature variability. Furthermore, we show that these biases are persistent throughout the 21st century, which highlights the urgent need for a sustained and comprehensive biogeochemical monitoring system in the Southern Ocean to better constrain key processes represented in current model systems.« less

The Southern Ocean as a constraint to reduce uncertainty in future ocean carbon sinks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kessler, A.; Tjiputra, J.

Earth system model (ESM) simulations exhibit large biases compares to observation-based estimates of the present ocean CO 2 sink. The inter-model spread in projections increases nearly 2-fold by the end of the 21st century and therefore contributes significantly to the uncertainty of future climate projections. In this study, the Southern Ocean (SO) is shown to be one of the hot-spot regions for future uptake of anthropogenic CO 2, characterized by both the solubility pump and biologically mediated carbon drawdown in the spring and summer. Here, we show, by analyzing a suite of fully interactive ESMs simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparisonmore » Project phase 5 (CMIP5) over the 21st century under the high-CO 2 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, that the SO is the only region where the atmospheric CO 2 uptake rate continues to increase toward the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, our study discovers a strong inter-model link between the contemporary CO 2 uptake in the Southern Ocean and the projected global cumulated uptake over the 21st century. This strong correlation suggests that models with low (high) carbon uptake rate in the contemporary SO tend to simulate low (high) uptake rate in the future. None the less, our analysis also shows that none of the models fully capture the observed biophysical mechanisms governing the CO 2 fluxes in the SO. The inter-model spread for the contemporary CO 2 uptake in the Southern Ocean is attributed to the variations in the simulated seasonal cycle of surface pCO 2. Two groups of model behavior have been identified. The first one simulates anomalously strong SO carbon uptake, generally due to both too strong a net primary production and too low a surface pCO 2 in December–January. The second group simulates an opposite CO 2 flux seasonal phase, which is driven mainly by the bias in the sea surface temperature variability. Furthermore, we show that these biases are persistent throughout the 21st century, which highlights the urgent need for a sustained and comprehensive biogeochemical monitoring system in the Southern Ocean to better constrain key processes represented in current model systems.« less

Dynamic axle and wheel loads identification: laboratory studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, X. Q.; Law, S. S.

2003-12-01

Two methods have been reported by Zhu and Law to identify moving loads on the top of a bridge deck. One is based on the exact solution (ESM) and the other is based on the finite element formulation (FEM). Simulation studies on the effect of different influencing factors have been reported previously. This paper comparatively studies the performances of these two methods with experimental measurements obtained from a bridge/vehicle system in the laboratory. The strains of the bridge deck are measured when a model car moves across the bridge deck along different paths. The moving loads on the bridge deck are identified from the measured strains using these two methods, and the responses are reconstructed from the identified loads for comparison with the measured responses to verify the performances of these methods. Studies on the identification accuracy due to the effect of the number of vibration mode used, the number of measuring points and eccentricities of travelling paths are performed. Results show that the ESM could identify the moving loads individually or as axle loads when they are travelling at an eccentricity with the sensors located close to the travelling path of the forces. And the accuracy of the FEM is dependent on the amount of measured information used in the identification.

Developed and developing world responsibilities for historical climate change and CO2 mitigation.

PubMed

Wei, Ting; Yang, Shili; Moore, John C; Shi, Peijun; Cui, Xuefeng; Duan, Qingyun; Xu, Bing; Dai, Yongjiu; Yuan, Wenping; Wei, Xin; Yang, Zhipeng; Wen, Tijian; Teng, Fei; Gao, Yun; Chou, Jieming; Yan, Xiaodong; Wei, Zhigang; Guo, Yan; Jiang, Yundi; Gao, Xuejie; Wang, Kaicun; Zheng, Xiaogu; Ren, Fumin; Lv, Shihua; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Bin; Luo, Yong; Li, Weijing; Ji, Duoying; Feng, Jinming; Wu, Qizhong; Cheng, Huaqiong; He, Jiankun; Fu, Congbin; Ye, Duzheng; Xu, Guanhua; Dong, Wenjie

2012-08-07

At the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference in Cancun, in November 2010, the Heads of State reached an agreement on the aim of limiting the global temperature rise to 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels. They recognized that long-term future warming is primarily constrained by cumulative anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, that deep cuts in global emissions are required, and that action based on equity must be taken to meet this objective. However, negotiations on emission reduction among countries are increasingly fraught with difficulty, partly because of arguments about the responsibility for the ongoing temperature rise. Simulations with two earth-system models (NCAR/CESM and BNU-ESM) demonstrate that developed countries had contributed about 60-80%, developing countries about 20-40%, to the global temperature rise, upper ocean warming, and sea-ice reduction by 2005. Enacting pledges made at Cancun with continuation to 2100 leads to a reduction in global temperature rise relative to business as usual with a 1/3-2/3 (CESM 33-67%, BNU-ESM 35-65%) contribution from developed and developing countries, respectively. To prevent a temperature rise by 2 °C or more in 2100, it is necessary to fill the gap with more ambitious mitigation efforts.

Sr/Ca and δ18O records of a coral from Sanya: reconstructions of temperature and precipitation in the northern South China Sea in the late Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, S.; Xoplaki, E.; Luterbacher, J.; Zorita, E.; Fleitmann, D.; Preiser-Kapeller, J.; Toreti, A., , Dr; Sargent, A. M.; Bozkurt, D.; White, S.; Haldon, J. F.; Akçer-Ön, S.; Izdebski, A.

2016-12-01

Past civilisations were influenced by complex external and internal forces, including changes in the environment, climate, politics and economy. A geographical hotspot of the interplay between those agents is the Mediterranean, a cradle of cultural and scientific development. We analyse a novel compilation of high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Mediterranean and compare them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for three historical time intervals - the Crusaders, 1095-1290 CE; the Mamluk regime in Transjordan, 1260-1516 CE; and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion, 1580-1610 CE - when environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies. ESMs provide important information on the dynamical mechanisms and underlying processes that led to anomalous hydroclimatic conditions of the past. We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean during the three periods cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. The integrated analysis of palaeoclimate proxies, climate reconstructions and model simulations sheds light on our understanding of past climate change and its societal impact. Finally, our research emphasises the need to further study the societal dimension of environmental and climate change in the past, in order to properly understand the role that climate has played in human history.

ALM-FATES: Using dynamic vegetation and demography to capture changes in forest carbon cycling and competition at the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holm, J. A.; Knox, R. G.; Koven, C.; Riley, W. J.; Bisht, G.; Fisher, R.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Dietze, M.; Chambers, J. Q.

2017-12-01

The inclusion of dynamic vegetation demography in Earth System Models (ESMs) has been identified as a critical step in moving ESMs towards more realistic representations of plant ecology and the processes that govern climatically important fluxes of carbon, energy, and water. Successful application of dynamic vegetation models, and process-based approaches to simulate plant demography, succession, and response to disturbances without climate envelopes at the global scale is a challenging endeavor. We integrated demographic processes using the Functionally-Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) in the newly developed ACME Land Model (ALM). We then use an ALM-FATES globally gridded simulation for the first time to investigate plant functional type (PFT) distributions and dynamic turnover rates. Initial global simulations successfully include six interacting and competing PFTs (ranging from tropical to boreal, evergreen, deciduous, needleleaf and broadleaf); including more PFTs is planned. Global maps of net primary productivity, leaf area index, and total vegetation biomass by ALM-FATES matched patterns and values when compared to CLM4.5-BGC and MODIS estimates. We also present techniques for PFT parameterization based on the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn), field based turnover rates, improved PFT groupings based on trait-tradeoffs, and improved representation of multiple canopy positions. Finally, we applied the improved ALM-FATES model at a central Amazon tropical and western U.S. temperate sites and demonstrate improvements in predicted PFT size- and age-structure and regional distribution. Results from the Amazon tropical site investigate the ability and magnitude of a tropical forest to act as a carbon sink by 2100 with a doubling of CO2, while results from the temperate sites investigate the response of forest mortality with increasing droughts.

Representation of riverine DOC within a GCM: First framework for coupling soil carbon and lateral hydrology in MPI-ESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brovkin, V.; Gehlot, S.; Hagemann, S.

2017-12-01

The current state of the art General Circulation Models (GCMs) do not consider the lateral transport of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from land to ocean via rivers/streams and the global carbon budget is primarily evaluated based only on vertical gas exchange processes between land or ocean carbon reservoirs. In high latitudes, the permafrost plays an important role in contributing to riverine organic carbon. Moreover, the vertical gas exchange processes are active during the lateral riverine carbon transport but are not considered in the impact of thawing permafrost on global climate. The interplay between permafrost and lateral hydrology is a substantial factor impacting the organic carbon inflow to the Arctic and its associated atmospheric exchange. In this research, we propose a framework of coupling the soil carbon transport via rivers using the hydrological discharge scheme (HD-Model) of MPI-ESM (Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model). The soil carbon classification is based on the solubility (YASSO soil carbon pools) and their subsequent attribution to the dissolved organic carbon via runoff (fast carbon pool) and baseflow (slow carbon pool). The HD-model, which simulates the river discharge for all land areas at a resolution of 0.5 degree, will be modified with inclusion of the DOC as tracer over test areas. Evaluation of DOC transport scheme is intended at reservoir level via available site measurements. The analysis will include global river networks for organic carbon transport with focus on permafrost and high latitude areas. Decomposition of DOC en-route land to ocean via vertical gas exchange processes will be included.

Nutritional effects of egg shell membrane supplements on chicken performance and immunity

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Eggshell membranes (ESM) contain a variety of proteins and peptides which help in the development of embryo and provide protection to it. Many of the peptides and proteins associated with ESM have antimicrobial, immune-modulatory, and adjuvant properties. We hypothesized that the membrane byproducts...

Becoming Something Different: Learning from Esme

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fairbanks, Colleen M.; Crooks, Penny Mason; Ariail, Mary

2011-01-01

In this article, Fairbanks, Crooks, and Ariail followed Esme Martinez, a Spanish-speaking Latina, from the sixth grade to the eleventh grade, focusing on her perspectives of schooling and her shifting identities related to home, school, friendships, and future. Drawing on the construct of artifacts, a sociohistorical concept that understands…

Experience-Sampling Research Methods and Their Potential for Education Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zirkel, Sabrina; Garcia, Julie A.; Murphy, Mary C.

2015-01-01

Experience-sampling methods (ESM) enable us to learn about individuals' lives in context by measuring participants' feelings, thoughts, actions, context, and/or activities as they go about their daily lives. By capturing experience, affect, and action "in the moment" and with repeated measures, ESM approaches allow researchers…

21st Century Carbon-Climate Change as Simulated by the Canadian Earth System Model CanESM1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curry, C.; Christian, J. R.; Arora, V.; Boer, G. J.; Denman, K. L.; Flato, G. M.; Scinocca, J. F.; Merryfield, W. J.; Lee, W. G.; Yang, D.

2009-12-01

The Canadian Earth System Model CanESM1 is a fully coupled climate/carbon-cycle model with prognostic ocean and terrestrial components. The model has been used to simulate the 1850-2000 climate using historical greenhouse gas emissions, and future climates using IPCC emission scenarios. Modelled globally averaged CO2 concentration, land and ocean carbon uptake compare well with observation-based values at year 2000, as do the annual cycle and latitudinal distribution of CO2, instilling confidence that the model is suitable for future projections of carbon cycle behaviour in a changing climate. Land use change emissions are calculated explicitly using an observation-based time series of fractional coverage of different plant functional types. A more complete description of the model may be found in Arora et al. (2009). Differences in the land-atmosphere CO2 flux from the present to the future period under the SRES A2 emissions scenario show an increase in land sinks by a factor of 7.5 globally, mostly the result of CO2 fertilization. By contrast, the magnitude of the global ocean CO2 sink increases by a factor of only 2.3 by 2100. Expressed as a fraction of total emissions, ocean carbon uptake decreases throughout the 2000-2100 period, while land carbon uptake increases until around 2050, then declines. The result is an increase in airborne CO2 fraction after the mid-21st century, reaching a value of 0.55 by 2100. The simulated decline in ocean carbon uptake over the 21st century occurs despite steadily rising atmospheric CO2. This behaviour is usually attributed to climate-induced changes in surface temperature and salinity that reduce CO2 solubility, and increasing ocean stratification that weakens the biological pump. However, ocean biological processes such as dinitrogen fixation and calcification may also play an important role. Although not well understood at present, improved parameterizations of these processes will increase confidence in projections of future trends in CO2 uptake.

Effect of Freeze-Thaw Cycles on Soil Nitrogen Reactive Transport in a Polygonal Arctic Tundra Ecosystem at Barrow AK Using 3-D Coupled ALM-PFLOTRAN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, F.; Wang, G.; Painter, S. L.; Tang, G.; Xu, X.; Kumar, J.; Bisht, G.; Hammond, G. E.; Mills, R. T.; Thornton, P. E.; Wullschleger, S. D.

2017-12-01

In Arctic tundra ecosystem soil freezing-thawing is one of dominant physical processes through which biogeochemical (e.g., carbon and nitrogen) cycles are tightly coupled. Besides hydraulic transport, freezing-thawing can cause pore water movement and aqueous species gradients, which are additional mechanisms for soil nitrogen (N) reactive-transport in Tundra ecosystem. In this study, we have fully coupled an in-development ESM(i.e., Advanced Climate Model for Energy, ACME)'s Land Model (ALM) aboveground processes with a state-of-the-art massively parallel 3-D subsurface thermal-hydrology and reactive transport code, PFLOTRAN. The resulting coupled ALM-PFLOTRAN model is a Land Surface Model (LSM) capable of resolving 3-D soil thermal-hydrological-biogeochemical cycles. This specific version of PFLOTRAN has incorporated CLM-CN Converging Trophic Cascade (CTC) model and a full and simple but robust soil N cycle. It includes absorption-desorption for soil NH4+ and gas dissolving-degasing process as well. It also implements thermal-hydrology mode codes with three newly-modified freezing-thawing algorithms which can greatly improve computing performance in regarding to numerical stiffness at freezing-point. Here we tested the model in fully 3-D coupled mode at the Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment-Arctic (NGEE-Arctic) field intensive study site at the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), AK. The simulations show that: (1) synchronous coupling of soil thermal-hydrology and biogeochemistry in 3-D can greatly impact ecosystem dynamics across polygonal tundra landscape; and (2) freezing-thawing cycles can add more complexity to the system, resulting in greater mobility of soil N vertically and laterally, depending upon local micro-topography. As a preliminary experiment, the model is also implemented for Pan-Arctic region in 1-D column mode (i.e. no lateral connection), showing significant differences compared to stand-alone ALM. The developed ALM-PFLOTRAN coupling codes embeded within ESM will be used for Pan-Arctic regional evaluation of climate change-caused ecosystem responses and their feedbacks to climate system at various scales.

Decay of deep water convection in CMIP5 GCMs in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molodtsov, S.; Anis, A.; Marinov, I.; Cabre, A.

2016-12-01

Contemporary changes in the climate system due to anthropogenic activity have already resulted in unprecedented melting rates of the polar ice caps. This in turn may have a significant impact on the thermohaline circulation in the future. The freshening of the surface waters increases stable stratification in regions of deep water formation, eventually triggering a weakening and, ultimately, may bring to a cessation of deep convection in these regions. Here we present comparatively an analysis of the response of deep convective processes in the North Atlantic (NA) and Southern Ocean (SO) to anthropogenic forcing using output from the latest generation of Earth System Models (ESM), part of the CMIP5 intercomparison. Our findings indicate an attenuation of deep convection by the end of the 21st century from ESM simulations under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario when compared to the years under historical scenario in both NA and SO. The average depth of the mixed layer in the regions studied during March/September, the months with maximum mixed layer depths in the NA/SO, respectively, was found to decrease dramatically by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, the increase in stratification and decrease in mixed layer depths, resulting in the decay of deep convection, leads to accumulation of excess heat, previously released during the convection events, in the ocean interior in both regions.

A new performance measurement system for maternal and child health in the United States.

PubMed

Kogan, Michael D; Dykton, Christopher; Hirai, Ashley H; Strickland, Bonnie B; Bethell, Christina D; Naqvi, Iran; Cano, Carlos E; Downing-Futrell, Sheri L; Lu, Michael C

2015-05-01

The Title V Maternal and Child Health (MCH) Block Grant is the linchpin for US MCH services. The first national performance measures (NPMs) for MCH were instituted in 1997. Changing trends in MCH risk factors, outcomes, health services, data sources, and advances in scientific knowledge, in conjunction with budgetary constraints led the Maternal and Child Health Bureau (MCHB) to design a new performance measurement system. A workgroup was formed to develop a new system. The following guiding principles were used: (1) Afford States more flexibility and reduce the overall reporting burden; (2) Improve accountability to better document Title V's impact; (3) Develop NPMs that encompass measures in: maternal and women's health, perinatal health, child health, children with special health care needs, adolescent health, and cross-cutting areas. A three-tiered performance measurement system was proposed with national outcome measures (NOMs), NPMs and evidence-based/informed strategy measures (ESMs). NOMs are the ultimate goals that MCHB and States are attempting to achieve. NPMs are measures, generally associated with processes or programs, shown to affect NOMs. ESMs are evidence-based or informed measures that each State Title V program develops to affect the NPMs. There are 15 NPMs from which States select eight, with at least one from each population area. MCHB will provide the data for the NOMs and NPMs, when possible. The new performance measurement system increases the flexibility and reduces the reporting burden for States by allowing them to choose 8 NPMs to target, and increases accountability by having States develop actionable ESMs. The new national performance measure framework for maternal and child health will allow States more flexibility to address their areas of greatest need, reduce their data reporting burden by having the Maternal and Child Health Bureau provide data for the National Outcome and Performance Measures, yet afford States the opportunity to develop measurable strategies to address their selected performance measures.

Whale Hearing Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-06-20

methodologies and partnership projects developed under the ONR Effect of Sound in the Marine Environment (ESME) Program. The effort involved an integration...computational models to predict audiograms for these species. National Security These data will assist in designing effective noise mitigation measures and...includes marine species for which there are reliable hearing data as well as sample sources with appropriate distance effects in their renditions, including

Design of Enzymatically Cleavable Prodrugs of a Potent Platinum-Containing Anticancer Agent

PubMed Central

Ding, Song; Pickard, Amanda J.; Kucera, Gregory L.

2014-01-01

Using a versatile synthetic approach, a new class of potential ester prodrugs of highly potent, but systemically too toxic, platinum–acridine anticancer agents was generated. The new hybrids contain a hydroxyl group, which has been masked with a cleavable lipophilic acyl moiety. Both butanoic (butyric) and bulkier 2-propanepentanoic (valproic) esters were introduced. The goals of this design were to improve the drug-like properties (e.g., logD) and to reduce the systemic toxicity of the pharmacophore. Two distinct pathways by which the target compounds undergo effective ester hydrolysis, the proposed activating step, have been confirmed: platinum-assisted, self-immolative ester cleavage in a low-chloride environment (LC-ESMS, NMR spectroscopy) and enzymatic cleavage by human carboxylesterase-2 (hCES-2) (LC-ESMS). The valproic acid ester derivatives are the first example of a metal-containing agent cleavable by the pro-drug-converting enzyme. They show excellent chemical stability and reduced systemic toxicity. Preliminary results from screening in lung adenocarcinoma cell lines (A549, NCI-H1435) suggest that the mechanism of the valproic esters may involve intracellular deesterification. PMID:25303639

Climate change forecasting in a mountainous data scarce watershed using CMIP5 models under representative concentration pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aghakhani Afshar, A.; Hasanzadeh, Y.; Besalatpour, A. A.; Pourreza-Bilondi, M.

2017-07-01

Hydrology cycle of river basins and available water resources in arid and semi-arid regions are highly affected by climate changes. In recent years, the increment of temperature due to excessive increased emission of greenhouse gases has led to an abnormality in the climate system of the earth. The main objective of this study is to survey the future climate changes in one of the biggest mountainous watersheds in northeast of Iran (i.e., Kashafrood). In this research, by considering the precipitation and temperature as two important climatic parameters in watersheds, 14 models evolved in the general circulation models (GCMs) of the newest generation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used to forecast the future climate changes in the study area. For the historical period of 1992-2005, four evaluation criteria including Nash-Sutcliffe (NS), percent of bias (PBIAS), coefficient of determination ( R 2) and the ratio of the root-mean-square-error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR) were used to compare the simulated observed data for assessing goodness-of-fit of the models. In the primary results, four climate models namely GFDL-ESM2G, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC-ESM, and NorESM1-M were selected among the abovementioned 14 models due to their more prediction accuracies to the investigated evaluation criteria. Thereafter, climate changes of the future periods (near-century, 2006-2037; mid-century, 2037-2070; and late-century, 2070-2100) were investigated and compared by four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of new emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. In order to assess the trend of annual and seasonal changes of climatic components, Mann-Kendall non-parametric test (MK) was also employed. The results of Mann-Kendall test revealed that the precipitation has significant variable trends of both positive and negative alterations. Furthermore, the mean, maximum, and minimum temperature values had significant positive trends at 90, 99, and 99.9 % confidence level. On the other hand, in all parts of the Kashafrood Watershed (KW), the average temperature of watershed will be increased up to 0.56-3.3 °C and the mean precipitation will be decreased up to 10.7 % by the end of the twenty-first century comparing to the historical baselines. Also, in seasonal scale, the maximum and minimum precipitations will occur in spring and summer, respectively, and the mean temperature is higher than the historical baseline in all seasons. The maximum and minimum values of the mean temperature will occur in summer and winter, respectively, and the amount of seasonal precipitation in these seasons will be reduced.

Local probing of ionic diffusion by electrochemical strain microscopy: Spatial resolution and signal formation mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morozovska, A. N.; Eliseev, E. A.; Balke, N.; Kalinin, S. V.

2010-09-01

Electrochemical insertion-deintercalation reactions are typically associated with significant change in molar volume of the host compound. This strong coupling between ionic currents and strains underpins image formation mechanisms in electrochemical strain microscopy (ESM), and allows exploring the tip-induced electrochemical processes locally. Here we analyze the signal formation mechanism in ESM, and develop the analytical description of operation in frequency and time domains. The ESM spectroscopic modes are compared to classical electrochemical methods including potentiostatic and galvanostatic intermittent titration, and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. This analysis illustrates the feasibility of spatially resolved studies of Li-ion dynamics on the sub-10-nm level using electromechanical detection.

Electronic screen media for persons with autism spectrum disorders: results of a survey.

PubMed

Shane, Howard C; Albert, Patti Ducoff

2008-09-01

Social and anecdotal reports suggest a predilection for visual media among individuals on the autism spectrum, yet no formal investigation has explored the extent of that use. Using a distributed questionnaire design, parents and caregivers report on time allotted toward media, including observable behaviors and communicative responses. More time was spent engaged with electronic screen media (ESM) than any other leisure activity. Television and movie viewing was more popular than computer usage. Across media platforms, animated programs were more highly preferred. Prevalent verbal and physical imitation was reported to occur during and following exposure to ESM. Clinical implications to strategically incorporate ESM into learning approaches for children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) are provided.

Mania Symptoms and HIV-Risk Behavior among Adolescents in Mental Health Treatment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stewart, Angela J.; Theodore-Oklota, Christina; Hadley, Wendy; Brown, Larry K.; Donenberg, Geri; DiClemente, Ralph

2012-01-01

This study explored whether adolescents with elevated symptoms of mania (ESM+) engage in more HIV risk behaviors than those with other psychiatric disorders and examined factors associated with HIV risk behavior among ESM+ adolescents. Eight hundred forty adolescents (56% female, 58% African American, "M" age = 14.9 years) who received mental…

Crossing the Line: When Pedagogical Relationships Go Awry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Tara Star

2010-01-01

Background/Context: Very little empirical research has been conducted on the issue of educator sexual misconduct (ESM) in secondary settings. The few reports available typically treat a larger social issue, such as sexual harassment or child abuse; therefore, data on ESM specifically must be extrapolated. When such data are obtained, the focus has…

Erratum: Correction to: Rearrangements of Open Magnetic Flux and Formation of Polar Coronal Holes in Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golubeva, E. M.; Mordvinov, A. V.

2017-12-01

Correction to: Solar Phys DOI 10.1007/s11207-017-1200-6 Due to an error during processing the Electronic Supplementary Material (ESM) supplied by the author was not included with the article. Please find in this correction document the reference to the ESM.

HULC long noncoding RNA silencing suppresses angiogenesis by regulating ESM-1 via the PI3K/Akt/mTOR signaling pathway in human gliomas.

PubMed

Zhu, Yu; Zhang, Xuebin; Qi, Lisha; Cai, Ying; Yang, Ping; Xuan, Geng; Jiang, Yuan

2016-03-22

Tumor angiogenesis plays a critical role in the tumor progression. Highly upregulated in liver cancer (HULC) is a long noncoding RNA (lncRNA) that acts as an oncogene in gliomas. We found that HULC, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), and ESM-1 (endothelial cell specific molecule 1) expression and microvessel density were positively correlated with grade dependency in glioma patient tissues, and that HULC silencing suppressed angiogenesis by inhibiting glioma cells proliferation and invasion. This process induced anoikis and blocked the cell cycle at G1/S phase via the PI3K/Akt/mTOR signaling pathway, thus regulating the tumor-related genes involved in the above biological behavior in human glioma U87MG and U251 cells. However, these effects were reversed by ESM-1 overexpression, suggesting a mediating role of ESM-1 in the pro-angiogenesis effect of HULC. Our results define the mechanism of the pro-angiogenesis activity of HULC, which shows potential for application as a therapeutic target in glioma.

Emotional and Social Mind Training: A Randomised Controlled Trial of a New Group-Based Treatment for Bulimia Nervosa

PubMed Central

Lavender, Anna; Startup, Helen; Naumann, Ulrike; Samarawickrema, Nelum; DeJong, Hannah; Kenyon, Martha; van den Eynde, Frederique; Schmidt, Ulrike

2012-01-01

Objective There is a need to improve treatment for individuals with bulimic disorders. It was hypothesised that a focus in treatment on broader emotional and social/interpersonal issues underlying eating disorders would increase treatment efficacy. This study tested a novel treatment based on the above hypothesis, an Emotional and Social Mind Training Group (ESM), against a Cognitive Behavioural Therapy Group (CBT) treatment. Method 74 participants were randomised to either ESM or CBT Group treatment programmes. All participants were offered 13 group and 4 individual sessions. The primary outcome measure was the Eating Disorder Examination (EDE) Global score. Assessments were carried out at baseline, end of treatment (four months) and follow-up (six months). Results There were no differences in outcome between the two treatments. No moderators of treatment outcome were identified. Adherence rates were higher for participants in the ESM group. Discussion This suggests that ESM may be a viable alternative to CBT for some individuals. Further research will be required to identify and preferentially allocate suitable individuals accordingly. Trial Registration ISRCTN61115988 PMID:23118850

Uncertainty in Land Cover observations and its impact on near surface climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgievski, Goran; Hagemann, Stefan

2017-04-01

Land Cover (LC) and its bio-geo-physical feedbacks are important for the understanding of climate and its vulnerability to changes on the surface of the Earth. Recently ESA has published a new LC map derived by combining remotely sensed surface reflectance and ground-truth observations. For each grid-box at 300m resolution, an estimate of confidence is provided. This LC data set can be used in climate modelling to derive land surface boundary parameters for the respective Land Surface Model (LSM). However, the ESA LC classes are not directly suitable for LSMs, therefore they need to be converted into the model specific surface presentations. Due to different design and processes implemented in various climate models they might differ in the treatment of artificial, water bodies, ice, bare or vegetated surfaces. Nevertheless, usually vegetation distribution in models is presented by means of plant functional types (PFT), which is a classification system used to simplify vegetation representation and group different vegetation types according to their biophysical characteristics. The method of LC conversion into PFT is also called "cross-walking" (CW) procedure. The CW procedure is another source of uncertainty, since it depends on model design and processes implemented and resolved by LSMs. These two sources of uncertainty, (i) due to surface reflectance conversion into LC classes, (ii) due to CW procedure, have been studied by Hartley et al (2016) to investigate their impact on LSM state variables (albedo, evapotranspiration (ET) and primary productivity) by using three standalone LSMs. The present study is a follow up to that work and aims at quantifying the impact of these two uncertainties on climate simulations performed with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) using prescribed sea surface temperature and sea ice. The main focus is on the terrestrial water cycle, but the impacts on surface albedo, wind patterns, 2m temperatures, as well as plant productivity are also examined. The analysis of vegetation covered area indicates that the range of uncertainty might be about the same order of magnitude as the estimated historical anthropogenic LC change. For example, the area covered with managed grasses (crops and pasture in MPI-ESM PFT classification) varies from 17 to 26 million km2, and area covered with trees ranges from 15 million km2 up to 51 million km2. These uncertainties in vegetation distribution lead to noticeable variations in atmospheric temperature, humidity, cloud cover, circulation, and precipitation as well as local, regional and global climate forcing. For example, the amount of terrestrial ET ranges from 73 to 77 × 103 km3yr-1in MPI-ESM simulations and this range has about the same order of magnitude as the current estimate of the reduction of annual ET due to recent anthropogenic LC change. This and more impacts of LC uncertainty on the near surface climate will be presented and discussed in the context of LC change. Hartley, A.J., MacBean, N., Georgievski, G., Bontemps, S.: Uncertainty in plant functional type distributions and its impact on land surface models (in review with Remote Sensing of Environment Special Issue)

High-resolution multimodel projections of soil moisture drought in Europe under 1.5, 2 and 3 degree global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaniego, L. E.; Kumar, R.; Zink, M.; Pan, M.; Wanders, N.; Marx, A.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Thober, S.

2017-12-01

Droughts are creeping hydro-meteorological events that may bring societies and natural systems to their limits by inducing significant environmental changes and large socio-economic losses. Little is know about the effects of varios degrees of warming (i.e., 1.5 , 2 and 3 K) and their respective uncertainties on extreme characteristics such as drought duration and area under drought in general, and in Europe in particular. In this study we investigate the evolution of droughts characteristics under three levels of warming using an unprecedented high-resolution multi-model hydrologic ensemble over the Pan-EU domain at a scale of 5x5 km2 from 1950 until 2100. This multi-model ensemble comprises four hydrologic models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB, VIC) which are forced by five CMIP-5 Global Climate Models (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M) under three RCP scenarios 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5. This results in a 60-member ensemble. The contribution GCM/HM uncertainties were analyzed based on a sequential sampling algorithm proposed by Samaniego et al. 2016. This study is carried out within the EDgE project funded by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (edge.climate.copernicus.eu) and the HOKLIM project funded by the German Ministry of Education (BMBF)(www.ufz.de/hoklim). The changes under three levels of warming indicate significant increase (more than 10%) of the number of droughts and area under drought with respect to 30-year climatological means obtained with E-OBS observations. Furthermore, we found that: 1) the number of drought events exhibit significant regional changes. Largest changes are observed in the Mediterrinian where frequency of droughts increases from 25% under 1.5 K to 33% under 2 K, and to more than 50% under 3 K warming. Minor changes are seen in Central-Europe and the British Isles. 2) The GCMs/HMs uncertainties have marked regional differences too, with GCM uncertainty appear to be larger everywhere. The uncertainty of HMs are, however, similar to those of the GCMs in the Iberian peninsula due to different representation of evapotranspiration and soil moisture dynamics. And, 3) despite the large uncertainty in the full ensemble, significant positive trends have been observed in all drought characteristics that intensify with increased global warming.

Use of Direct-Infusion Electrospray Mass Spectrometry To Guide Empirical Development of Improved Conditions for Expression of Secondary Metabolites from Actinomycetes

PubMed Central

Zahn, James A.; Higgs, Richard E.; Hilton, Matthew D.

2001-01-01

A major barrier in the discovery of new secondary metabolites from microorganisms is the difficulty of distinguishing the minor fraction of productive cultures from the majority of unproductive cultures and growth conditions. In this study, a rapid, direct-infusion electrospray mass spectrometry (ES-MS) technique was used to identify chemical differences that occurred in the expression of secondary metabolites by 44 actinomycetes cultivated under six different fermentation conditions. Samples from actinomycete fermentations were prepared by solid-phase extraction, analyzed by ES-MS, and ranked according to a chemical productivity index based on the total number and relative intensity of ions present in each sample. The actinomycete cultures were tested for chemical productivity following treatments that included nutritional manipulations, autoregulator additions, and different agitation speeds and incubation temperatures. Evaluation of the ES-MS data from submerged and solid-state fermentations by paired t test analyses showed that solid-state growth significantly altered the chemical profiles of extracts from 75% of the actinomycetes evaluated. Parallel analysis of the same extracts by high-performance liquid chromatography–ES-MS–evaporative light scattering showed that the chemical differences detected by the ES-MS method were associated with growth condition-dependent changes in the yield of secondary metabolites. Our results indicate that the high-throughput ES-MS method is useful for identification of fermentation conditions that enhance expression of secondary metabolites from actinomycetes. PMID:11133469

Use of direct-infusion electrospray mass spectrometry to guide empirical development of improved conditions for expression of secondary metabolites from actinomycetes.

PubMed

Zahn, J A; Higgs, R E; Hilton, M D

2001-01-01

A major barrier in the discovery of new secondary metabolites from microorganisms is the difficulty of distinguishing the minor fraction of productive cultures from the majority of unproductive cultures and growth conditions. In this study, a rapid, direct-infusion electrospray mass spectrometry (ES-MS) technique was used to identify chemical differences that occurred in the expression of secondary metabolites by 44 actinomycetes cultivated under six different fermentation conditions. Samples from actinomycete fermentations were prepared by solid-phase extraction, analyzed by ES-MS, and ranked according to a chemical productivity index based on the total number and relative intensity of ions present in each sample. The actinomycete cultures were tested for chemical productivity following treatments that included nutritional manipulations, autoregulator additions, and different agitation speeds and incubation temperatures. Evaluation of the ES-MS data from submerged and solid-state fermentations by paired t test analyses showed that solid-state growth significantly altered the chemical profiles of extracts from 75% of the actinomycetes evaluated. Parallel analysis of the same extracts by high-performance liquid chromatography-ES-MS-evaporative light scattering showed that the chemical differences detected by the ES-MS method were associated with growth condition-dependent changes in the yield of secondary metabolites. Our results indicate that the high-throughput ES-MS method is useful for identification of fermentation conditions that enhance expression of secondary metabolites from actinomycetes.

Evolution of precipitation extremes in two large ensembles of climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martel, Jean-Luc; Mailhot, Alain; Talbot, Guillaume; Brissette, François; Ludwig, Ralf; Frigon, Anne; Leduc, Martin; Turcotte, Richard

2017-04-01

Recent studies project significant changes in the future distribution of precipitation extremes due to global warming. It is likely that extreme precipitation intensity will increase in a future climate and that extreme events will be more frequent. In this work, annual maxima daily precipitation series from the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) 50-member large ensemble (spatial resolution of 2.8°x2.8°) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) 40-member large ensemble (spatial resolution of 1°x1°) are used to investigate extreme precipitation over the historical (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) periods. The use of these ensembles results in respectively 1 500 (30 years x 50 members) and 1200 (30 years x 40 members) simulated years over both the historical and future periods. These large datasets allow the computation of empirical daily extreme precipitation quantiles for large return periods. Using the CanESM2 and CESM1 large ensembles, extreme daily precipitation with return periods ranging from 2 to 100 years are computed in historical and future periods to assess the impact of climate change. Results indicate that daily precipitation extremes generally increase in the future over most land grid points and that these increases will also impact the 100-year extreme daily precipitation. Considering that many public infrastructures have lifespans exceeding 75 years, the increase in extremes has important implications on service levels of water infrastructures and public safety. Estimated increases in precipitation associated to very extreme precipitation events (e.g. 100 years) will drastically change the likelihood of flooding and their extent in future climate. These results, although interesting, need to be extended to sub-daily durations, relevant for urban flooding protection and urban infrastructure design (e.g. sewer networks, culverts). Models and simulations at finer spatial and temporal resolution are therefore needed.

Evaluation of Simulated Marine Aerosol Production Using the WaveWatchIII Prognostic Wave Model Coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model within the Community Earth System Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Long, M. S.; Keene, William C.; Zhang, J.

2016-11-08

Primary marine aerosol (PMA) is emitted into the atmosphere via breaking wind waves on the ocean surface. Most parameterizations of PMA emissions use 10-meter wind speed as a proxy for wave action. This investigation coupled the 3 rd generation prognostic WAVEWATCH-III wind-wave model within a coupled Earth system model (ESM) to drive PMA production using wave energy dissipation rate – analogous to whitecapping – in place of 10-meter wind speed. The wind speed parameterization did not capture basin-scale variability in relations between wind and wave fields. Overall, the wave parameterization did not improve comparison between simulated versus measured AOD ormore » Na +, thus highlighting large remaining uncertainties in model physics. Results confirm the efficacy of prognostic wind-wave models for air-sea exchange studies coupled with laboratory- and field-based characterizations of the primary physical drivers of PMA production. No discernible correlations were evident between simulated PMA fields and observed chlorophyll or sea surface temperature.« less

Importance of ensembles in projecting regional climate trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arritt, Raymond; Daniel, Ariele; Groisman, Pavel

2016-04-01

We have performed an ensemble of simulations using RegCM4 to examine the ability to reproduce observed trends in precipitation intensity and to project future changes through the 21st century for the central United States. We created a matrix of simulations over the CORDEX North America domain for 1950-2099 by driving the regional model with two different global models (HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M, both for RCP8.5), by performing simulations at both 50 km and 25 km grid spacing, and by using three different convective parameterizations. The result is a set of 12 simulations (two GCMs by two resolutions by three convective parameterizations) that can be used to systematically evaluate the influence of simulation design on predicted precipitation. The two global models were selected to bracket the range of climate sensitivity in the CMIP5 models: HadGEM2-ES has the highest ECS of the CMIP5 models, while GFDL-ESM2M has one of the lowestt. Our evaluation metrics differ from many other RCM studies in that we focus on the skill of the models in reproducing past trends rather than the mean climate state. Trends in frequency of extreme precipitation (defined as amounts exceeding 76.2 mm/day) for most simulations are similar to the observed trend but with notable variations depending on RegCM4 configuration and on the driving GCM. There are complex interactions among resolution, choice of convective parameterization, and the driving GCM that carry over into the future climate projections. We also note that biases in the current climate do not correspond to biases in trends. As an example of these points the Emanuel scheme is consistently "wet" (positive bias in precipitation) yet it produced the smallest precipitation increase of the three convective parameterizations when used in simulations driven by HadGEM2-ES. However, it produced the largest increase when driven by GFDL-ESM2M. These findings reiterate that ensembles using multiple RCM configurations and driving GCMs are essential for projecting regional climate change, even when a single RCM is used. This research was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Institute of Food and Agriculture.

Comparison of SPI and SPEI indices for Drought Characterization under Climate Change Scenario in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, V.; Jain, M. K.

2017-12-01

Many drought indices are available for quantifying and characterizing the drought events. Selection of a particular drought index could influence the outcome of the study. In this study, we compared two drought indices namely, Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) under climate change condition. Data from 7 RCM models namely, CCCma-CanESM2, CERFACS-CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M, MOHC-HadGEM2, MIROC-MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR and MPI-ESM-MR for RCP 4.5 scenario have been used to calculate 12 month SPI and SPEI values. L-moments which provides robust distribution parameter estimation, have been used to identify best fit distribution for projected data at each grid point for each month. Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope test have been used to detect trends in drought severity, duration, peak, and interval between drought events. Results of this study reveal that SPI shows decreasing trends in drought severity, duration and peak with negative Sen's slope, however, the SPEI shows increasing trends of severity, duration and peak with a positive Sen's slope for almost all over India. The analysis reveals that projected percentage of drought affected area based on SPI in the first half of the 21st century is higher compared to those obtained using SPEI, however for the second half of the 21st century, the projected drought affected computed using SPEI is higher compared to the corresponding area obtained using SPI. Decrease in droughts severity, duration and peaks in SPI analysis could be attributed to projected increase in monsoon rainfall in Indian Subcontinent during second half of 21st century however, SPI was found incapable to account the increase in temperature thus neglecting the drying due to increased evapotranspiration whereas SPEI shows significant drying in Indian subcontinent on account of increasing trend in temperature observed in projected future RCM scenarios.

Lunar Outpost Technologies Breakeven Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perka, Alan

2008-01-01

This viewgraph presentation compares several Lunar Outpost (LO) life support technology combinations, evaluates the combinations for two clothing options, (i.e., Disposable clothing, and using Laundry to clean the soiled clothing) and evaluates the use of the Advanced Life Support Sizing and Analysis Tool (ALSSAT) to estimate Equivalent System Mass (ESM)

School Principals at Their Lonely Work: Recording Workday Practices through ESM Logs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lopez, Veronica; Ahumada, Luis; Galdames, Sergio; Madrid, Romina

2012-01-01

This study used portable technology based on Experience Sampling Methodology (ESM log) to register workday practices of school principals and heads from Chilean schools who were implementing school improvement plans aimed at developing a culture of organizational learning. For a week, Smartphone devices which beeped seven times a day were given to…

Using the Experience Sampling Method in the Context of Contingency Management for Substance Abuse Treatment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Husky, Mathilde M.; Mazure, Carolyn M.; Carroll, Kathleen M.; Barry, Danielle; Petry, Nancy M.

2008-01-01

Contingency management (CM) treatments have been shown to be effective in reducing substance use. This manuscript illustrates how the experience sampling method (ESM) can depict behavior and behavior change and can be used to explore CM treatment mechanisms. ESM characterizes idiosyncratic patterns of behavior and offers the potential to determine…

Esme Hadfield (1921-92) and the Wycombe woodworkers.

PubMed

Whiteside, O J H; Corbridge, R J; Capper, J W R

2010-02-01

This paper reflects on the life and work of Esme Hadfield, an otolaryngologist based at Wycombe General Hospital and, in particular, on her discovery of the link between adenocarcinoma of the paranasal sinuses and wood dust exposure from those in the furniture industry. The paper also explores the woodworking industry that forms the backdrop to her discovery.

Eggshell membrane biomaterial as a platform for applications in materials science.

PubMed

Baláž, Matej

2014-09-01

Eggshell membrane (ESM) is a unique biomaterial, which is generally considered as waste. However, it has extraordinary properties which can be utilized in various fields and its potential applications are therefore now being widely studied. The first part of this review focuses on the chemical composition and morphology of ESM. The main areas of ESM application are discussed in the second part. These applications include its utilization as a biotemplate for the synthesis of nanoparticles; as a sorbent of heavy metals, organics, dyes, sulfonates and fluorides; as the main component of biosensors; in medicine; and various other applications. For each area of interest, a detailed literature survey is given. Copyright © 2014 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detection of nonlinear interactions of EEG alpha waves in the brain by a new coherence measure and its application to epilepsy and anti-epileptic drug therapy.

PubMed

Sherman, David; Zhang, Ning; Garg, Shikha; Thakor, Nitish V; Mirski, Marek A; White, Mirinda Anderson; Hinich, Melvin J

2011-04-01

EEG and field potential rhythms established in the cortex and thalamus may accommodate the propagation of seizures. This article describes the interaction between thalamus and cortex during pentylenetetrazol (PTZ) seizures in rats with and without prior treatment with ethosuximide (ESM), a well-known antiepileptic drug (AED) that raises the threshold for seizures, was given before PTZ. The AED was given before PTZ convulsant administration. We track this thalamo-cortical association with a novel measure we have called the cross-bicoherence gain, or BISCOH. This quantity allows us to measure the spectral coherence in a purely higher order spectralmethodology. BISCOH is able to track the formation of nonlinearities at specific frequencies in the recorded EEG. BISCOH showed a strong increase in low alpha wave harmonic generationat 10 and 12.5 Hz after ESM treatment (p < 0.02 and p < 0.007, respectively). Conventional coherence failed to show distinctive and significant changes in thalamo-cortical coupling after ESM treatment at those frequencies and instead showed changes at 5 Hz. This rise in cortical rhythms is evidence of harmonic generation or new frequency formation in the thalamo-cortical system withAED therapy. BISCOH could become a powerful tool in unraveling changes in coherence due to neuroelectric modulation resulting from drug treatment or electrical stimulation.

Quantifying the importance of model-to-model variability in integrated assessments of 21st century climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Jones, A. D.; Shi, X.; Calvin, K. V.

2016-12-01

The C4MIP and CMIP5 model intercomparison projects (MIPs) highlighted uncertainties in climate projections, driven to a large extent by interactions between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate feedbacks. In addition, the importance of feedbacks between human (energy and economic) systems and natural (carbon and climate) systems is poorly understood, and not considered in the previous MIP protocols. The experiments conducted under the previous Integrated Earth System Model (iESM) project, which coupled a earth system model with an integrated assessment model (GCAM), found that the inclusion of climate feedbacks on the terrestrial system in an RCP4.5 scenario increased ecosystem productivity, resulting in declines in cropland extent and increases in bioenergy production and forest cover. As a follow-up to these studies and to further understand climate-carbon cycle interactions and feedbacks, we examined the robustness of these results by running a suite of GCAM-only experiments using changes in ecosystem productivity derived from both the CMIP5 archive and the Agricultural Model Intercomparison Project. In our results, the effects of climate on yield in an RCP8.5 scenario tended to be more positive than those of AgMIP, but more negative than those of the other CMIP models. We discuss these results and the implications of model-to-model variability for integrated coupling studies of the future earth system.

Tracking human activity and well-being in natural environments using wearable sensors and experience sampling.

PubMed

Doherty, Sean T; Lemieux, Christopher J; Canally, Culum

2014-04-01

A growing range of studies have begun to document the health and well-being benefits associated with contact with nature. Most studies rely on generalized self-reports following engagement in the natural environment. The actual in-situ experience during contact with nature, and the environmental features and factors that evoke health benefits have remained relatively unexplored. Smartphones offer a new opportunity to monitor and interact with human subjects during everyday life using techniques such as Experience Sampling Methods (ESM) that involve repeated self-reports of experiences as they occur in-situ. Additionally, embedded sensors in smartphones such as Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and accelerometers can accurately trace human activities. This paper explores how these techniques can be combined to comprehensively explore the perceived health and well-being impacts of contact with nature. Custom software was developed to passively track GPS and accelerometer data, and actively prompt subjects to complete an ESM survey at regular intervals throughout their visit to a provincial park in Ontario, Canada. The ESM survey includes nine scale questions concerning moods and emotions, followed by a series of open-ended experiential questions that subjects provide recorded audio responses to. Pilot test results are used to illustrate the nature, quantity and quality of data obtained. Participant activities were clearly evident from GPS maps, including especially walking, cycling and sedate activities. From the ESM surveys, participants reported an average of 25 words per question, taking an average of 15 s to record them. Further qualitative analysis revealed that participants were willing to provide considerable insights into their experiences and perceived health impacts. The combination of passive and interactive techniques is sure to make larger studies of this type more affordable and less burdensome in the future, further enhancing the ability to understand how contact with nature enhances health and well-being. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Express saccades in distinct populations: east, west, and in-between.

PubMed

Knox, Paul C; Wolohan, Felicity D A; Helmy, Mai S

2017-12-01

Express saccades are low latency (80-130 ms), visually guided saccades. While their occurrence is encouraged by the use of gap tasks (the fixation target is extinguished 200 ms prior to the saccade target appearing) and suppressed by the use of overlap tasks (the fixation target remains present when the saccade target appears), there are some healthy, adult participants, "express saccade makers" (ESMs), who persist in generating high proportions (> 30%) of express saccades in overlap conditions. These participants are encountered much more frequently in Chinese participant groups than amongst the Caucasian participants tested to date. What is not known is whether this high number of ESMs is only a feature of Chinese participant groups. More broadly, there are few comparative studies of saccade behaviour across large participant groups drawn from different populations. We, therefore, tested an independent group of 70 healthy adult Egyptian participants, using the same equipment and procedures as employed in the previous studies. Each participant was exposed to two blocks of 200 gap, and two blocks of 200 overlap trials, with block order counterbalanced. Results from the Schwartz Value Survey were used to confirm that this group of participants was culturally distinct from the Chinese and Caucasian (white British) groups tested previously. Fourteen percent (10/70) of this new group were ESMs, and the pattern of latency distribution in these ESMs was identical to that identified in the other participant groups, with a prominent peak in the express latency range in overlap conditions. Overall, we identified three modes in the distribution of saccade latency in overlap conditions, the timing of which (express peak at 110 ms, subsequent peaks at 160 and 210 ms) were strikingly consistent with our previous observations. That these behavioural patterns of saccade latency are observed consistently in large participant groups, drawn from geographically, ethnically, and culturally distinct populations, suggests that they relate to the underlying architecture of the saccade system.

Resolving terrestrial ecosystem processes along a subgrid topographic gradient for an earth-system model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Subin, Z M; Milly, Paul C.D.; Sulman, B N; Malyshev, Sergey; Shevliakova, E

2014-01-01

Soil moisture is a crucial control on surface water and energy fluxes, vegetation, and soil carbon cycling. Earth-system models (ESMs) generally represent an areal-average soil-moisture state in gridcells at scales of 50–200 km and as a result are not able to capture the nonlinear effects of topographically-controlled subgrid heterogeneity in soil moisture, in particular where wetlands are present. We addressed this deficiency by building a subgrid representation of hillslope-scale topographic gradients, TiHy (Tiled-hillslope Hydrology), into the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) land model (LM3). LM3-TiHy models one or more representative hillslope geometries for each gridcell by discretizing them into land model tiles hydrologically coupled along an upland-to-lowland gradient. Each tile has its own surface fluxes, vegetation, and vertically-resolved state variables for soil physics and biogeochemistry. LM3-TiHy simulates a gradient in soil moisture and water-table depth between uplands and lowlands in each gridcell. Three hillslope hydrological regimes appear in non-permafrost regions in the model: wet and poorly-drained, wet and well-drained, and dry; with large, small, and zero wetland area predicted, respectively. Compared to the untiled LM3 in stand-alone experiments, LM3-TiHy simulates similar surface energy and water fluxes in the gridcell-mean. However, in marginally wet regions around the globe, LM3-TiHy simulates shallow groundwater in lowlands, leading to higher evapotranspiration, lower surface temperature, and higher leaf area compared to uplands in the same gridcells. Moreover, more than four-fold larger soil carbon concentrations are simulated globally in lowlands as compared with uplands. We compared water-table depths to those simulated by a recent global model-observational synthesis, and we compared wetland and inundated areas diagnosed from the model to observational datasets. The comparisons demonstrate that LM3-TiHy has the capability to represent some of the controls of these hydrological variables, but also that improvement in parameterization and input datasets are needed for more realistic simulations. We found large sensitivity in model-diagnosed wetland and inundated area to the depth of conductive soil and the parameterization of macroporosity. With improved parameterization and inclusion of peatland biogeochemical processes, the model could provide a new approach to investigating the vulnerability of Boreal peatland carbon to climate change in ESMs.

FY04 Advanced Life Support Architecture and Technology Studies: Mid-Year Presentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lange, Kevin; Anderson, Molly; Duffield, Bruce; Hanford, Tony; Jeng, Frank

2004-01-01

Long-Term Objective: Identify optimal advanced life support system designs that meet existing and projected requirements for future human spaceflight missions. a) Include failure-tolerance, reliability, and safe-haven requirements. b) Compare designs based on multiple criteria including equivalent system mass (ESM), technology readiness level (TRL), simplicity, commonality, etc. c) Develop and evaluate new, more optimal, architecture concepts and technology applications.

Submarine Combat Systems Engineering Project Capstone Project

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-06

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Multi-model ensemble simulations of low flows in Europe under a 1.5, 2, and 3 degree global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marx, A.; Kumar, R.; Thober, S.; Zink, M.; Wanders, N.; Wood, E. F.; Pan, M.; Sheffield, J.; Samaniego, L. E.

2017-12-01

There is growing evidence that climate change will alter water availability in Europe. Here, we investigate how hydrological low flows are affected under different levels of future global warming (i.e., 1.5, 2 and 3 K). The analysis is based on a multi-model ensemble of 45 hydrological simulations based on three RCPs (rcp2p6, rcp6p0, rcp8p5), five CMIP5 GCMs (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M) and three state-of-the-art hydrological models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, and PCR-GLOBWB). High resolution model results are available at the unprecedented spatial resolution of 5 km across the pan-European domain at daily temporal resolution. Low river flow is described as the percentile of daily streamflow that is exceeded 90% of the time. It is determined separately for each GCM/HM combinations and the warming scenarios. The results show that the change signal amplifies with increasing warming levels. Low flows decrease in the Mediterranean, while they increase in the Alpine and Northern regions. In the Mediterranean, the level of warming amplifies the signal from -12% under 1.5 K to -35% under 3 K global warming largely due to the projected decreases in annual precipitation. In contrast, the signal is amplified from +22% (1.5 K) to +45% (3 K) because of the reduced snow melt contribution. The changes in low flows are significant for regions with relatively large change signals and under higher levels of warming. Nevertheless, it is not possible to distinguish climate induced differences in low flows between 1.5 and 2 K warming because of the large variability inherent in the multi-model ensemble. The contribution by the GCMs to the uncertainty in the Alpine and Northern region as well as the Mediterranean, the uncertainty contribution by the HMs is partly higher than those by the GCMs due to different representations of processes such as snow, soil moisture and evapotranspiration.

Combined deep sampling and mass-based approaches to assess soil carbon and nitrogen losses due to land-use changes in karst area of southwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Yecui; Du, Zhangliu; Wang, Qibing; Li, Guichun

2016-07-01

The conversion of natural vegetation to human-managed ecosystems, especially the agricultural systems, may decrease soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (TN) stocks. The objective of present study was to assess SOC and TN stocks losses by combining deep sampling with mass-based calculations upon land-use changes in a typical karst area of southwestern China. We quantified the changes from native forest to grassland, secondary shrub, eucalyptus plantation, sugarcane and corn fields (both defined as croplands), on the SOC and TN stocks down to 100 cm depth using fixed-depth (FD) and equivalent soil mass (ESM) approaches. The results showed that converting forest to cropland and other types significantly led to SOC and TN losses, but the extent depended on both sampling depths and calculation methods selected (i.e., FD or ESM). On average, the shifting from native forest to cropland led to SOC losses by 19.1, 25.1, 30.6, 36.8 and 37.9 % for the soil depths of 0-10, 0-20, 0-40, 0-60 and 0-100 cm, respectively, which highlighted that shallow sampling underestimated SOC losses. Moreover, the FD method underestimated SOC and TN losses for the upper 40 cm layer, but overestimated the losses in the deeper layers. We suggest that the ESM together with deep sampling should be encouraged to detect the differences in SOC stocks. In conclusion, the conversion of forest to managed systems, in particular croplands significantly decreased in SOC and TN stocks, although the effect magnitude to some extent depended on sampling depth and calculation approach selected.

Aerosol–climate interactions in the Norwegian Earth System Model – NorESM1-M

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kirkevåg, A.; Iversen, T.; Seland, Ø.

2013-01-01

The objective of this study is to document and evaluate recent changes and updates to the module for aerosols and aerosol–cloud–radiation interactions in the atmospheric module CAM4-Oslo of the core version of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM), NorESM1-M. Particular attention is paid to the role of natural organics, sea salt, and mineral dust in determining the gross aerosol properties as well as the anthropogenic contribution to these properties and the associated direct and indirect radiative forcing. The aerosol module is extended from earlier versions that have been published, and includes life-cycling of sea salt, mineral dust, particulate sulphate, blackmore » carbon, and primary and secondary organics. The impacts of most of the numerous changes since previous versions are thoroughly explored by sensitivity experiments. The most important changes are: modified prognostic sea salt emissions; updated treatment of precipitation scavenging and gravitational settling; inclusion of biogenic primary organics and methane sulphonic acid (MSA) from oceans; almost doubled production of land-based biogenic secondary organic aerosols (SOA); and increased ratio of organic matter to organic carbon (OM/OC) for biomass burning aerosols from 1.4 to 2.6. Compared with in situ measurements and remotely sensed data, the new treatments of sea salt and dust aerosols give smaller biases in near-surface mass concentrations and aerosol optical depth than in the earlier model version. The model biases for mass concentrations are approximately unchanged for sulphate and BC. The enhanced levels of modeled OM yield improved overall statistics, even though OM is still underestimated in Europe and overestimated in North America. The global anthropogenic aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF) at the top of the atmosphere has changed from a small positive value to -0.08 W m-2 in CAM4-Oslo. The sensitivity tests suggest that this change can be attributed to the new treatment of biomass burning aerosols and gravitational settling. Although it has not been a goal in this study, the new DRF estimate is closer both to the median model estimate from the AeroCom intercomparison and the best estimate in IPCC AR4. Estimated DRF at the ground surface has increased by ca. 60%, to -1.89 W m-2. We show that this can be explained by new emission data and omitted mixing of constituents between updrafts and downdrafts in convective clouds. The increased abundance of natural OM and the introduction of a cloud droplet spectral dispersion formulation are the most important contributions to a considerably decreased estimate of the indirect radiative forcing (IndRF). The IndRF is also found to be sensitive to assumptions about the coating of insoluble aerosols by sulphate and OM. The IndRF of -1.2 W m-2, which is closer to the IPCC AR4 estimates than the previous estimate of -1.9 W m-2, has thus been obtained without imposing unrealistic artificial lower bounds on cloud droplet number concentrations.« less

Mid-21st century projections of hydroclimate in Western Himalayas and Satluj River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, Sarita; Kar, Sarat C.; Bhatla, R.

2018-02-01

The Himalayan climate system is sensitive to global warming and climate change. Regional hydrology and the downstream water flow in the rivers of Himalayan origin may change due to variations in snow and glacier melt in the region. This study examines the mid-21st century climate projections over western Himalayas from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). All the global climate models used in the present analysis indicate that the study region would be warmer by mid-century. The temperature trends from all the models studied here are statistically significant at 95% confidence interval. Multi-model ensemble spreads show that there are large differences among the models in their projections of future climate with spread in temperature ranging from about 1.5 °C to 5 °C over various areas of western Himalayas in all the seasons. Spread in precipitation projections lies between 0.3 and 1 mm/day in all the seasons. Major shift in the timing of evaporation maxima and minima is noticed. The GFDL_ESM2G model products have been downscaled to Satluj River basin using the weather research and forecast (WRF) model and impact of climate change on streamflow has been studied. The reduction of precipitation during JJAS is expected to be > 3-6 mm/day in RCP8.5 as compared to present climate. It is expected that precipitation amount shall increase over Satluj basin in future (mid-21st century) The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model has been used to simulate the Satluj streamflow for the present and future climate using GFDL_ESM2G precipitation and temperature data as well as the WRF model downscaled data. The computations using the global model data show that total annual discharge from Satluj will be less in future than that in present climate, especially in peak discharge season (JJAS). The SWAT model with downscaled output indicates that during winter and spring, more discharge shall occur in future (RCP8.5) in Satluj River.

Simulating C fluxes along the terrestrial-aquatic continuum of the Amazon basin from 1861-2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauerwald, R.; Regnier, P. A. G.; Ciais, P.

2017-12-01

To date, Earth System Models (ESM) ignore the lateral transfers of carbon (C) along the terrestrial-aquatic continuum down to the oceans and thus overestimate the terrestrial C storage. Here, we present the implementation of fluvial transport of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and CO2 into ORCHIDEE, the land surface scheme of the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace ESM. This new model branch, called ORCHILEAK, represents DOC production from canopy and soils, DOC and CO2 leaching from soils to streams, DOC decomposition and CO2 evasion to the atmosphere during its lateral transport in rivers, as well as exchange with the soil carbon and litter stocks in riparian wetlands. The model is calibrated and applied to the Amazon basin, including historical simulations starting from 1861 and future projections to the end of the 21st century. The model is found to reproduce well the observed dynamics in lateral DOC fluxes and CO2 evasion from the water surface. According to the simulations, half of the evading CO2 and 2/3 of the DOC transported in the rivers are produced within the water column or in flooded wetlands. We predict an increase in fluvial DOC exports to the coast and CO2 evasion to the atmosphere of about 1/4 over the 21st century (RCP 6.0). These long-term trends are mainly controlled by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and its fertilizing effect on terrestrial primary production in the model, while the effects of land-use change and increasing air temperature are minor. Interannual variations and seasonality of CO2 evasion and DOC transported by the river are however mainly controlled by hydrology. Over the simulation period, the actual land C sink represents less than half of the balance between terrestrial production and respiration in the Amazon basin, while the larger proportion is exported through the terrestrial-aquatic interface. These results highlight the importance of the terrestrial-aquatic continuum in the global C cycle.

Dynamic mechanical control of local vacancies in NiO thin films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seol, Daehee; Yang, Sang Mo; Jesse, Stephen; Choi, Minseok; Hwang, Inrok; Choi, Taekjib; Park, Bae Ho; Kalinin, Sergei V.; Kim, Yunseok

2018-07-01

The manipulation of local ionic behavior via external stimuli in oxide systems is of great interest because it can help in directly tuning material properties. Among external stimuli, mechanical force has attracted intriguing attention as novel stimulus for ionic modulation. Even though effectiveness of mechanical force on local ionic modulation has been validated in terms of static effect, its real-time i.e., dynamic, behavior under an application of the force is barely investigated in spite of its crucial impact on device performance such as force or pressure sensors. In this study, we explore dynamic ionic behavior modulated by mechanical force in NiO thin films using electrochemical strain microscopy (ESM). Ionically mediated ESM hysteresis loops were significantly varied under an application of mechanical force. Based on these results, we were able to investigate relative relationship between the force and voltage effects on ionic motion and, further, control effectively ionic behavior through combination of mechanical and electrical stimuli. Our results can provide comprehensive information on the effect of mechanical forces on ionic dynamics in ionic systems.

Dynamic mechanical control of local vacancies in NiO thin films.

PubMed

Seol, Daehee; Yang, Sang Mo; Jesse, Stephen; Choi, Minseok; Hwang, Inrok; Choi, Taekjib; Park, Bae Ho; Kalinin, Sergei V; Kim, Yunseok

2018-07-06

The manipulation of local ionic behavior via external stimuli in oxide systems is of great interest because it can help in directly tuning material properties. Among external stimuli, mechanical force has attracted intriguing attention as novel stimulus for ionic modulation. Even though effectiveness of mechanical force on local ionic modulation has been validated in terms of static effect, its real-time i.e., dynamic, behavior under an application of the force is barely investigated in spite of its crucial impact on device performance such as force or pressure sensors. In this study, we explore dynamic ionic behavior modulated by mechanical force in NiO thin films using electrochemical strain microscopy (ESM). Ionically mediated ESM hysteresis loops were significantly varied under an application of mechanical force. Based on these results, we were able to investigate relative relationship between the force and voltage effects on ionic motion and, further, control effectively ionic behavior through combination of mechanical and electrical stimuli. Our results can provide comprehensive information on the effect of mechanical forces on ionic dynamics in ionic systems.

Modeling global vegetation in the late Quaternary: What progress have we made and what are the priorities for the future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, Jed

2017-04-01

More than two decades ago, the development of the first global biogeography models led to an interest in simulating global land cover in the past. These models promised the possibility of creating a coherent picture of the Earth's vegetation that went beyond qualitative extrapolation of site-based observations, e.g., from paleoecological archives, and was not limited to areas with a high density of sites. Then as now, the goal of much work simulating past vegetation was to explore and understand the role of biogeophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks between the Earth's land surface and the climate system. Paleovegetation modeling for the late Quaternary has also influenced debates on the character of natural vegetation, conservation and ecological restoration goals, and the co-evolution of humans, civilizations, and the landscapes in which they live. The first simulations of global land cover in the past used equilibrium vegetation models, e.g., BIOME1, BIOME3, and BIOME4, and focused on well-known timeslices of interest in paleoclimate research, including the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 BP) and the mid-Holocene (6,000 BP). Questions addressed included: quantification of the importance of terrestrial vegetation in the glacial carbon cycle, the role of changing vegetation cover on glacial inception, and the influence of biogeophysical feedbacks on the amplitude and spatial pattern of the mid-Holocene African Monsoon. In the intervening years, as both vegetation and climate models evolved and improved, the spatial resolution, number of periods studied, and the type of research questions addressed expanded greatly. Studies covered the dynamics of Arctic vegetation, wetland area, wetland methane emissions, and paleo-atmospheric chemistry, dust emissions and effects on paleoclimate, among others. A major recent advance in paleovegetation modeling for the late Quaternary has come with the development of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) that are capable of simulating changing vegetation cover over time, continuously. Several DGVMs have been directly incorporated into the land surface scheme of modern Earth System Models (ESMs), further allowing the exploration of land-atmosphere feedbacks, e.g., during abrupt climate change events, such as those that occurred during the last deglaciation. Recent increases in computer power have also allowed offline simulations, i.e., not directly coupled to an ESM, with DGVMs to simulate vegetation change over long time periods, e.g., continuously for the entire Holocene. Realizing that climate change alone was not the only driver of land cover change over the late Quaternary, the most recent developments in paleovegetation modeling for this period have incorporated human agency as an influence on vegetation. Incorporation of scenarios of Anthropogenic Land Cover Change into DGVMs has allowed a quantitative contribution to the ongoing, lively debate regarding the role of humans in influencing Holocene atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. With the further advances in ESMs and the availability of very long climate model simulations, e.g., TraCE-21ka, improvements to DGVMs such as the explicit representation of age structure and plant traits, and the increasing awareness of the importance of human-environment interactions, the future of paleovegetation modeling for the late Quaternary presents a variety of opportunities. One important focus for future modeling should be on simulating the dynamics of ecotones, e.g., forest-grassland boundaries, over time, particularly during abrupt transient climate change events. Accurate simulation of ecotone boundaries is traditionally a weakness in DGVMs, yet these environments are highly valued by humans for their ecosystem services both at present and in the past, paleoecological evidence suggests that ecotone boundaries were very sensitive to past climate change, and they are critical locations where land-atmosphere feedbacks could have amplified or attenuated ongoing, externally-forced climate change. Lessons drawn from paleovegetation simulations may shed new light on the behavior of the earth system that will be valuable for understanding the future.

PEEX Modelling Platform for Seamless Environmental Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baklanov, Alexander; Mahura, Alexander; Arnold, Stephen; Makkonen, Risto; Petäjä, Tuukka; Kerminen, Veli-Matti; Lappalainen, Hanna K.; Ezau, Igor; Nuterman, Roman; Zhang, Wen; Penenko, Alexey; Gordov, Evgeny; Zilitinkevich, Sergej; Kulmala, Markku

2017-04-01

The Pan-Eurasian EXperiment (PEEX) is a multidisciplinary, multi-scale research programme stared in 2012 and aimed at resolving the major uncertainties in Earth System Science and global sustainability issues concerning the Arctic and boreal Northern Eurasian regions and in China. Such challenges include climate change, air quality, biodiversity loss, chemicalization, food supply, and the use of natural resources by mining, industry, energy production and transport. The research infrastructure introduces the current state of the art modeling platform and observation systems in the Pan-Eurasian region and presents the future baselines for the coherent and coordinated research infrastructures in the PEEX domain. The PEEX modeling Platform is characterized by a complex seamless integrated Earth System Modeling (ESM) approach, in combination with specific models of different processes and elements of the system, acting on different temporal and spatial scales. The ensemble approach is taken to the integration of modeling results from different models, participants and countries. PEEX utilizes the full potential of a hierarchy of models: scenario analysis, inverse modeling, and modeling based on measurement needs and processes. The models are validated and constrained by available in-situ and remote sensing data of various spatial and temporal scales using data assimilation and top-down modeling. The analyses of the anticipated large volumes of data produced by available models and sensors will be supported by a dedicated virtual research environment developed for these purposes.

Climate engineering of vegetated land for hot extremes mitigation: an ESM sensitivity study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilhelm, Micah; Davin, Edouard; Seneviratne, Sonia

2014-05-01

Mitigation efforts to reduce anthropogenic climate forcing have thus far proven inadequate, as evident from accelerating greenhouse gas emissions. Many subtropical and mid-latitude regions are expected to experience longer and more frequent heat waves and droughts within the next century. This increased occurrence of weather extremes has important implications for human health, mortality and for socio-economic factors including forest fires, water availability and agricultural production. Various solar radiation management (SRM) schemes that attempt to homogeneously counter the anthropogenic forcing have been examined with different Earth System Models (ESM). Land climate engineering schemes have also been investigated which reduces the amount of solar radiation that is absorbed at the surface. However, few studies have investigated their effects on extremes but rather on mean climate response. Here we present the results of a series of climate engineering sensitivity experiments performed with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.0.2 at 2°-resolution. This configuration entails 5 fully coupled model components responsible for simulating the Earth's atmosphere, land, land-ice, ocean and sea-ice that interact through a central coupler. Historical and RCP8.5 scenarios were performed with transient land-cover changes and prognostic terrestrial Carbon/Nitrogen cycles. Four sets of experiments are performed in which surface albedo over snow-free vegetated grid points is increased by 0.5, 0.10, 0.15 and 0.20. The simulations show a strong preferential cooling of hot extremes throughout the Northern mid-latitudes during boreal summer. A strong linear scaling between the cooling of extremes and additional surface albedo applied to the land model is observed. The strongest preferential cooling is found in southeastern Europe and the central United States, where increases of soil moisture and evaporative fraction are the largest relative to the control simulation. This preferential cooling is found to intensify in the future scenario. Cloud cover strongly limits the efficacy of a given surface albedo increase to reflect incoming solar radiation back into space. As anthropogenic forcing increases, cloud cover decreases over much of the northern mid-latitudes in CESM.

Equivalent Mass versus Life Cycle Cost for Life Support Technology Selection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry

2003-01-01

The decision to develop a particular life support technology or to select it for flight usually depends on the cost to develop and fly it. Other criteria such as performance, safety, reliability, crew time, and technical and schedule risk are considered, but cost is always an important factor. Because launch cost would account for much of the cost of a future planetary mission, and because launch cost is directly proportional to the mass launched, equivalent mass has been used instead of cost to select advanced life support technology. The equivalent mass of a life support system includes the estimated mass of the hardware and of the spacecraft pressurized volume, power supply, and cooling system that the hardware requires. The equivalent mass of a system is defined as the total payload launch mass needed to provide and support the system. An extension of equivalent mass, Equivalent System Mass (ESM), has been established for use in the Advanced Life Support project. ESM adds a mass-equivalent of crew time and possibly other cost factors to equivalent mass. Traditional equivalent mass is strictly based on flown mass and reflects only the launch cost. ESM includes other important cost factors, but it complicates the simple flown mass definition of equivalent mass by adding a non-physical mass penalty for crew time that may exceed the actual flown mass. Equivalent mass is used only in life support analysis. Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is much more commonly used. LCC includes DDT&E, launch, and operations costs. For Earth orbit rather than planetary missions, the launch cost is less than the cost of Design, Development, Test, and Evaluation (DDTBE). LCC is a more inclusive cost estimator than equivalent mass. The relative costs of development, launch, and operations vary depending on the mission destination and duration. Since DDTBE or operations may cost more than launch, LCC gives a more accurate relative cost ranking than equivalent mass. To select the lowest cost technology for a particular application we should use LCC rather than equivalent mass.

Safety and Feasibility of a Ketamine Package to Support Emergency and Essential Surgery in Kenya when No Anesthetist is Available: An Analysis of 1216 Consecutive Operative Procedures.

PubMed

Burke, Thomas F; Suarez, Sebastian; Sessler, Daniel I; Senay, Ayla; Yusufali, Taha; Masaki, Charles; Guha, Moytrayee; Rogo, Debora; Jani, Pankaj; Nelson, Brett D; Rogo, Khama

2017-12-01

Lack of access to emergency and essential surgery is widespread in low- and middle-income countries. Scarce anesthesia services contribute to this unmet need. The aim of this study was to evaluate the safety and feasibility of the Every Second Matters for Emergency and Essential Surgery-Ketamine (ESM-Ketamine) package for emergency and essential procedures when no anesthetist was available. From November 2013 to September 2017, the ESM-Ketamine package was used for patients requiring emergency or life-improving surgeries in fifteen selected facilities across Kenya when no anesthetist was available. A mixed-methods approach was used to assess safety and feasibility of the ESM-Ketamine package, including demand, acceptability, and practicality. The primary outcome was ketamine-related adverse events. Key-informant interviews captured perceptions of providers, hospital administrators, and surgeons/proceduralists. Non-anesthetist mid-level providers used ESM-Ketamine for 1216 surgical procedures across the fifteen study facilities. The median ketamine dose was 2.1 mg/kg. Brief (<30 s) oxygen desaturations occurred in 39 patients (3%), and prolonged (>30 s) oxygen desaturations occurred in seven patients (0.6%). There were 157 (13%) reported cases of hallucinations and agitation which were treated with diazepam. All patients recovered uneventfully, and no ketamine-related deaths were reported. Twenty-seven key-informant interviews showed strong support for the program with four main themes: financial considerations, provision of services, staff impact, and scaling considerations. The ESM-Ketamine package appears safe and feasible and is capable of expanding access to emergency and essential surgeries in rural Kenya when no anesthetist is available.

Effects of momentary self-monitoring on empowerment in a randomized controlled trial in patients with depression.

PubMed

Simons, C J P; Hartmann, J A; Kramer, I; Menne-Lothmann, C; Höhn, P; van Bemmel, A L; Myin-Germeys, I; Delespaul, P; van Os, J; Wichers, M

2015-11-01

Interventions based on the experience sampling method (ESM) are ideally suited to provide insight into personal, contextualized affective patterns in the flow of daily life. Recently, we showed that an ESM-intervention focusing on positive affect was associated with a decrease in symptoms in patients with depression. The aim of the present study was to examine whether ESM-intervention increased patient empowerment. Depressed out-patients (n=102) receiving psychopharmacological treatment who had participated in a randomized controlled trial with three arms: (i) an experimental group receiving six weeks of ESM self-monitoring combined with weekly feedback sessions, (ii) a pseudo-experimental group participating in six weeks of ESM self-monitoring without feedback, and (iii) a control group (treatment as usual only). Patients were recruited in the Netherlands between January 2010 and February 2012. Self-report empowerment scores were obtained pre- and post-intervention. There was an effect of group×assessment period, indicating that the experimental (B=7.26, P=0.061, d=0.44, statistically imprecise) and pseudo-experimental group (B=11.19, P=0.003, d=0.76) increased more in reported empowerment compared to the control group. In the pseudo-experimental group, 29% of the participants showed a statistically reliable increase in empowerment score and 0% reliable decrease compared to 17% reliable increase and 21% reliable decrease in the control group. The experimental group showed 19% reliable increase and 4% reliable decrease. These findings tentatively suggest that self-monitoring to complement standard antidepressant treatment may increase patients' feelings of empowerment. Further research is necessary to investigate long-term empowering effects of self-monitoring in combination with person-tailored feedback. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Impacts of Canadian and global black carbon shipping emissions on Arctic climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, R.; von Salzen, K.

2017-12-01

Shipping activities have increased across the Arctic and are projected to continue to increase in the future. In this study we compare the climate impacts of Canadian and global shipping black carbon (BC) emissions on the Arctic using the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis Earth System Model (CanESM4.1). The model simulations are performed with and without shipping emissions at T63 (128 x 64) spectral resolution. Results indicate that shipping activities enhance BC concentrations across the area close to the shipping emissions, which causes increased absorption of solar radiation (direct effect). An impact of shipping on temperatures is simulated across the entire Arctic, with maximum warming in fall and winter seasons. Although global mean temperature changes are very similar between the two simulations, increase in Canadian BC shipping emissions cause warmer Arctic land surface temperature in summer due to the direct radiative effects of aerosol.

Single- and multi-frequency detection of surface displacements via scanning probe microscopy.

PubMed

Romanyuk, Konstantin; Luchkin, Sergey Yu; Ivanov, Maxim; Kalinin, Arseny; Kholkin, Andrei L

2015-02-01

Piezoresponse force microscopy (PFM) provides a novel opportunity to detect picometer-level displacements induced by an electric field applied through a conducting tip of an atomic force microscope (AFM). Recently, it was discovered that superb vertical sensitivity provided by PFM is high enough to monitor electric-field-induced ionic displacements in solids, the technique being referred to as electrochemical strain microscopy (ESM). ESM has been implemented only in multi-frequency detection modes such as dual AC resonance tracking (DART) and band excitation, where the response is recorded within a finite frequency range, typically around the first contact resonance. In this paper, we analyze and compare signal-to-noise ratios of the conventional single-frequency method with multi-frequency regimes of measuring surface displacements. Single-frequency detection ESM is demonstrated using a commercial AFM.

Purification and characterization of an eggshell membrane decomposing protease from Pseudomonas aeruginosa strain ME-4.

PubMed

Cheng, Minyi; Takenaka, Shinji; Aoki, Shunsuke; Murakami, Shuichiro; Aoki, Kenji

2009-04-01

A bacterial strain, ME-4, isolated from farm soil and identified as Pseudomonas aeruginosa, grew well on a medium containing eggshell membrane (ESM). P. aeruginosa strain ME-4 decomposed the ESM by producing an extracellular protease able to solubilize it. The protease was purified to homogeneity from culture supernatant by fractionation with (NH(4))(2)SO(4), as well as CM52 cellulose and DE52 cellulose column chromatography, with a final yield of 47%. The molecular mass of the enzyme was 33 kDa. The isolated enzyme was a metalloprotease and was strongly inhibited by EDTA, o-phenanthroline, and phosphoramidon. The enzyme inhibited by these reagents was reactivated in the presence of several metal ions. The enzyme acted on various proteins and showed higher activity with collagen than collagenase from Clostridium histolyticum. Results of assays with the FRETS combinatorial libraries revealed that the enzyme preferred Ser at the P1 position and Lys at the P2 position. It also preferred hydrophobic amino acid residues at the P1' and P2' positions. The enzyme showed a much higher solubilization activity with the ESM substrate than commercially obtained enzymes. The enzyme decomposed ESM to produce water-soluble peptides, Val-Leu-Pro-Pro and (X)-Val-Pro-Pro, and a free amino acid, tryptophan.

Intracranial mapping of auditory perception: event-related responses and electrocortical stimulation.

PubMed

Sinai, A; Crone, N E; Wied, H M; Franaszczuk, P J; Miglioretti, D; Boatman-Reich, D

2009-01-01

We compared intracranial recordings of auditory event-related responses with electrocortical stimulation mapping (ESM) to determine their functional relationship. Intracranial recordings and ESM were performed, using speech and tones, in adult epilepsy patients with subdural electrodes implanted over lateral left cortex. Evoked N1 responses and induced spectral power changes were obtained by trial averaging and time-frequency analysis. ESM impaired perception and comprehension of speech, not tones, at electrode sites in the posterior temporal lobe. There was high spatial concordance between ESM sites critical for speech perception and the largest spectral power (100% concordance) and N1 (83%) responses to speech. N1 responses showed good sensitivity (0.75) and specificity (0.82), but poor positive predictive value (0.32). Conversely, increased high-frequency power (>60Hz) showed high specificity (0.98), but poorer sensitivity (0.67) and positive predictive value (0.67). Stimulus-related differences were observed in the spatial-temporal patterns of event-related responses. Intracranial auditory event-related responses to speech were associated with cortical sites critical for auditory perception and comprehension of speech. These results suggest that the distribution and magnitude of intracranial auditory event-related responses to speech reflect the functional significance of the underlying cortical regions and may be useful for pre-surgical functional mapping.

Intracranial mapping of auditory perception: Event-related responses and electrocortical stimulation

PubMed Central

Sinai, A.; Crone, N.E.; Wied, H.M.; Franaszczuk, P.J.; Miglioretti, D.; Boatman-Reich, D.

2010-01-01

Objective We compared intracranial recordings of auditory event-related responses with electrocortical stimulation mapping (ESM) to determine their functional relationship. Methods Intracranial recordings and ESM were performed, using speech and tones, in adult epilepsy patients with subdural electrodes implanted over lateral left cortex. Evoked N1 responses and induced spectral power changes were obtained by trial averaging and time-frequency analysis. Results ESM impaired perception and comprehension of speech, not tones, at electrode sites in the posterior temporal lobe. There was high spatial concordance between ESM sites critical for speech perception and the largest spectral power (100% concordance) and N1 (83%) responses to speech. N1 responses showed good sensitivity (0.75) and specificity (0.82), but poor positive predictive value (0.32). Conversely, increased high-frequency power (>60 Hz) showed high specificity (0.98), but poorer sensitivity (0.67) and positive predictive value (0.67). Stimulus-related differences were observed in the spatial-temporal patterns of event-related responses. Conclusions Intracranial auditory event-related responses to speech were associated with cortical sites critical for auditory perception and comprehension of speech. Significance These results suggest that the distribution and magnitude of intracranial auditory event-related responses to speech reflect the functional significance of the underlying cortical regions and may be useful for pre-surgical functional mapping. PMID:19070540

Direct Effects: A School-Based Intervention for Adolescents Exposed to Educator Sexual Misconduct

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oberhand, Erica

2013-01-01

Educator sexual misconduct (ESM) against high school students is a significant problem throughout the United States (American Association of University Women, 2001; United States Department of Education [USDE], 2004), and has harmful effects on students and school systems. The maltreatment of a student by an educator undermines the cohesion of the…

Landscape fires dominate terrestrial natural aerosol - climate feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, C.; Arnold, S.; Monks, S. A.; Asmi, A.; Paasonen, P.; Spracklen, D. V.

2017-12-01

The terrestrial biosphere is an important source of natural aerosol including landscape fire emissions and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formed from biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). Atmospheric aerosol alters the Earth's climate by absorbing and scattering radiation (direct radiative effect; DRE) and by perturbing the properties of clouds (aerosol indirect effect; AIE). Natural aerosol sources are strongly controlled by, and can influence, climate; giving rise to potential natural aerosol-climate feedbacks. Earth System Models (ESMs) include a description of some of these natural aerosol-climate feedbacks, predicting substantial changes in natural aerosol over the coming century with associated radiative perturbations. Despite this, the sensitivity of natural aerosols simulated by ESMs to changes in climate or emissions has not been robustly tested against observations. Here we combine long-term observations of aerosol number and a global aerosol microphysics model to assess terrestrial natural aerosol-climate feedbacks. We find a strong positive relationship between the summertime anomaly in observed concentration of particles greater than 100 nm diameter and the anomaly in local air temperature. This relationship is reproduced by the model and driven by variability in dynamics and meteorology, as well as natural sources of aerosol. We use an offline radiative transfer model to determine radiative effects due to changes in two natural aerosol sources: landscape fire and biogenic SOA. We find that interannual variability in the simulated global natural aerosol radiative effect (RE) is negatively related to the global temperature anomaly. The magnitude of global aerosol-climate feedback (sum of DRE and AIE) is estimated to be -0.15 Wm-2 K-1 for landscape fire aerosol and -0.06 Wm-2 K-1 for biogenic SOA. These feedbacks are comparable in magnitude, but opposite in sign to the snow albedo feedback, highlighting the need for natural aerosol feedbacks to be included in climate simulations.

Analysis and trends of precipitation lapse rate and extreme indices over north Sikkim eastern Himalayas under CMIP5ESM-2M RCPs experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Vishal; Goyal, Manish Kumar

2016-01-01

This paper draws attention to highlight the spatial and temporal variability in precipitation lapse rate (PLR) and precipitation extreme indices (PEIs) through the mesoscale characterization of Teesta river catchment, which corresponds to north Sikkim eastern Himalayas. A PLR rate is an important variable for the snowmelt runoff models. In a mountainous region, the PLR could be varied from lower elevation parts to high elevation parts. In this study, a PLR was computed by accounting elevation differences, which varies from around 1500 m to 7000 m. A precipitation variability and extremity were analysed using multiple mathematical functions viz. quantile regression, spatial mean, spatial standard deviation, Mann-Kendall test and Sen's estimation. For this reason, a daily precipitation, in the historical (years 1980-2005) as measured/observed gridded points and projected experiments for the 21st century (years 2006-2100) simulated by CMIP5 ESM-2 M model (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Earth System Model 2) employing three different radiative forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways), utilized for the research work. The outcomes of this study suggest that a PLR is significantly varied from lower elevation to high elevation parts. The PEI based analysis showed that the extreme high intensity events have been increased significantly, especially after 2040s. The PEI based observations also showed that the numbers of wet days are increased for all the RCPs. The quantile regression plots showed significant increments in the upper and lower quantiles of the various extreme indices. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen's estimation tests clearly indicated significant changing patterns in the frequency and intensity of the precipitation indices across all the sub-basins and RCP scenario in an intra-decadal time series domain. The RCP8.5 showed extremity of the projected outcomes.

Evaluation of global climate model on performances of precipitation simulation and prediction in the Huaihe River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yenan; Zhong, Ping-an; Xu, Bin; Zhu, Feilin; Fu, Jisi

2017-06-01

Using climate models with high performance to predict the future climate changes can increase the reliability of results. In this paper, six kinds of global climate models that selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under Representative Concentration Path (RCP) 4.5 scenarios were compared to the measured data during baseline period (1960-2000) and evaluate the simulation performance on precipitation. Since the results of single climate models are often biased and highly uncertain, we examine the back propagation (BP) neural network and arithmetic mean method in assembling the precipitation of multi models. The delta method was used to calibrate the result of single model and multimodel ensembles by arithmetic mean method (MME-AM) during the validation period (2001-2010) and the predicting period (2011-2100). We then use the single models and multimodel ensembles to predict the future precipitation process and spatial distribution. The result shows that BNU-ESM model has the highest simulation effect among all the single models. The multimodel assembled by BP neural network (MME-BP) has a good simulation performance on the annual average precipitation process and the deterministic coefficient during the validation period is 0.814. The simulation capability on spatial distribution of precipitation is: calibrated MME-AM > MME-BP > calibrated BNU-ESM. The future precipitation predicted by all models tends to increase as the time period increases. The order of average increase amplitude of each season is: winter > spring > summer > autumn. These findings can provide useful information for decision makers to make climate-related disaster mitigation plans.

The Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) Software Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenslade, M. A.; Murphy, S.; Treshansky, A.; DeLuca, C.; Guilyardi, E.; Denvil, S.

2013-12-01

Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) is an international project supplying high-quality tools & services in support of earth system documentation creation, analysis and dissemination. It is nurturing a sustainable standards based documentation eco-system that aims to become an integral part of the next generation of exa-scale dataset archives. ES-DOC leverages open source software, and applies a software development methodology that places end-user narratives at the heart of all it does. ES-DOC has initially focused upon nurturing the Earth System Model (ESM) documentation eco-system and currently supporting the following projects: * Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5); * Dynamical Core Model Inter-comparison Project (DCMIP); * National Climate Predictions and Projections Platforms Quantitative Evaluation of Downscaling Workshop. This talk will demonstrate that ES-DOC implements a relatively mature software development process. Taking a pragmatic Agile process as inspiration, ES-DOC: * Iteratively develops and releases working software; * Captures user requirements via a narrative based approach; * Uses online collaboration tools (e.g. Earth System CoG) to manage progress; * Prototypes applications to validate their feasibility; * Leverages meta-programming techniques where appropriate; * Automates testing whenever sensibly feasible; * Streamlines complex deployments to a single command; * Extensively leverages GitHub and Pivotal Tracker; * Enforces strict separation of the UI from underlying API's; * Conducts code reviews.

Tuning the climate sensitivity of a global model to match 20th Century warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauritsen, T.; Roeckner, E.

2015-12-01

A climate models ability to reproduce observed historical warming is sometimes viewed as a measure of quality. Yet, for practical reasons historical warming cannot be considered a purely empirical result of the modelling efforts because the desired result is known in advance and so is a potential target of tuning. Here we explain how the latest edition of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) atmospheric model (ECHAM6.3) had its climate sensitivity systematically tuned to about 3 K; the MPI model to be used during CMIP6. This was deliberately done in order to improve the match to observed 20th Century warming over the previous model generation (MPI-ESM, ECHAM6.1) which warmed too much and had a sensitivity of 3.5 K. In the process we identified several controls on model cloud feedback that confirm recently proposed hypotheses concerning trade-wind cumulus and high-latitude mixed-phase clouds. We then evaluate the model fidelity with centennial global warming and discuss the relative importance of climate sensitivity, forcing and ocean heat uptake efficiency in determining the response as well as possible systematic biases. The activity of targeting historical warming during model development is polarizing the modeling community with 35 percent of modelers stating that 20th Century warming was rated very important to decisive, whereas 30 percent would not consider it at all. Likewise, opinions diverge as to which measures are legitimate means for improving the model match to observed warming. These results are from a survey conducted in conjunction with the first WCRP Workshop on Model Tuning in fall 2014 answered by 23 modelers. We argue that tuning or constructing models to match observed warming to some extent is practically unavoidable, and as such, in many cases might as well be done explicitly. For modeling groups that have the capability to tune both their aerosol forcing and climate sensitivity there is now a unique opportunity to explore the bounds of our understanding - a low sensitivity model could be sustained by weak aerosol forcing, and a highly sensitive model could potentially be constructed to match observed warming by strong compensating aerosol cooling. This next natural step could constitute a new paradigm in climate modeling.

An extended linear scaling method for downscaling temperature and its implication in the Jhelum River basin, Pakistan, and India, using CMIP5 GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmood, Rashid; JIA, Shaofeng

2017-11-01

In this study, the linear scaling method used for the downscaling of temperature was extended from monthly scaling factors to daily scaling factors (SFs) to improve the daily variations in the corrected temperature. In the original linear scaling (OLS), mean monthly SFs are used to correct the future data, but mean daily SFs are used to correct the future data in the extended linear scaling (ELS) method. The proposed method was evaluated in the Jhelum River basin for the period 1986-2000, using the observed maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) of 18 climate stations and the simulated Tmax and Tmin of five global climate models (GCMs) (GFDL-ESM2G, NorESM1-ME, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and CanESM2), and the method was also compared with OLS to observe the improvement. Before the evaluation of ELS, these GCMs were also evaluated using their raw data against the observed data for the same period (1986-2000). Four statistical indicators, i.e., error in mean, error in standard deviation, root mean square error, and correlation coefficient, were used for the evaluation process. The evaluation results with GCMs' raw data showed that GFDL-ESM2G and MIROC5 performed better than other GCMs according to all the indicators but with unsatisfactory results that confine their direct application in the basin. Nevertheless, after the correction with ELS, a noticeable improvement was observed in all the indicators except correlation coefficient because this method only adjusts (corrects) the magnitude. It was also noticed that the daily variations of the observed data were better captured by the corrected data with ELS than OLS. Finally, the ELS method was applied for the downscaling of five GCMs' Tmax and Tmin for the period of 2041-2070 under RCP8.5 in the Jhelum basin. The results showed that the basin would face hotter climate in the future relative to the present climate, which may result in increasing water requirements in public, industrial, and agriculture sectors; change in the hydrological cycle and monsoon pattern; and lack of glaciers in the basin.

Simplified contaminant source depletion models as analogs of multiphase simulators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, Nandita B.; Fure, Adrian D.; Jawitz, James W.

2008-04-01

Four simplified dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) source depletion models recently introduced in the literature are evaluated for the prediction of long-term effects of source depletion under natural gradient flow. These models are simple in form (a power function equation is an example) but are shown here to serve as mathematical analogs to complex multiphase flow and transport simulators. The spill and subsequent dissolution of DNAPLs was simulated in domains having different hydrologic characteristics (variance of the log conductivity field = 0.2, 1 and 3) using the multiphase flow and transport simulator UTCHEM. The dissolution profiles were fitted using four analytical models: the equilibrium streamtube model (ESM), the advection dispersion model (ADM), the power law model (PLM) and the Damkohler number model (DaM). All four models, though very different in their conceptualization, include two basic parameters that describe the mean DNAPL mass and the joint variability in the velocity and DNAPL distributions. The variability parameter was observed to be strongly correlated with the variance of the log conductivity field in the ESM and ADM but weakly correlated in the PLM and DaM. The DaM also includes a third parameter that describes the effect of rate-limited dissolution, but here this parameter was held constant as the numerical simulations were found to be insensitive to local-scale mass transfer. All four models were able to emulate the characteristics of the dissolution profiles generated from the complex numerical simulator, but the one-parameter PLM fits were the poorest, especially for the low heterogeneity case.

Simplified contaminant source depletion models as analogs of multiphase simulators.

PubMed

Basu, Nandita B; Fure, Adrian D; Jawitz, James W

2008-04-28

Four simplified dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) source depletion models recently introduced in the literature are evaluated for the prediction of long-term effects of source depletion under natural gradient flow. These models are simple in form (a power function equation is an example) but are shown here to serve as mathematical analogs to complex multiphase flow and transport simulators. The spill and subsequent dissolution of DNAPLs was simulated in domains having different hydrologic characteristics (variance of the log conductivity field=0.2, 1 and 3) using the multiphase flow and transport simulator UTCHEM. The dissolution profiles were fitted using four analytical models: the equilibrium streamtube model (ESM), the advection dispersion model (ADM), the power law model (PLM) and the Damkohler number model (DaM). All four models, though very different in their conceptualization, include two basic parameters that describe the mean DNAPL mass and the joint variability in the velocity and DNAPL distributions. The variability parameter was observed to be strongly correlated with the variance of the log conductivity field in the ESM and ADM but weakly correlated in the PLM and DaM. The DaM also includes a third parameter that describes the effect of rate-limited dissolution, but here this parameter was held constant as the numerical simulations were found to be insensitive to local-scale mass transfer. All four models were able to emulate the characteristics of the dissolution profiles generated from the complex numerical simulator, but the one-parameter PLM fits were the poorest, especially for the low heterogeneity case.

Bearings Only Tracking with Fusion from Heterogenous Passive Sensors: ESM/EO and Acoustic

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-02-01

consists of an unscented Kalman filter (UKF) to handle in-sequence ESM/EO measurements and an OOSM unscented Gauss-Helmert filter (OOSM-UGHF) to handle out...bearings-only tracking, target motion analysis, unscented Gauss-Helmert filter , out-of-sequence measurement. I. INTRODUCTION The commonly used passive...proposed an unscented Gauss-Helmert filter (UGHF) [22] [21] to solve this problem. The existing UGHF works with in-sequence measurements. Further

Engagement with electronic screen media among students with autism spectrum disorders.

PubMed

Mineo, Beth A; Ziegler, William; Gill, Susan; Salkin, Donna

2009-01-01

This study investigated the relative engagement potential of four types of electronic screen media (ESM): animated video, video of self, video of a familiar person engaged with an immersive virtual reality (VR) game, and immersion of self in the VR game. Forty-two students with autism, varying in age and expressive communication ability, were randomly assigned to the experimental conditions. Gaze duration and vocalization served as dependent measures of engagement. The results reveal differential responding across ESM, with some variation related to the engagement metric employed. Preferences for seeing themselves on the screen, as well as for viewing the VR scenarios, emerged from the data. While the study did not yield definitive data about the relative engagement potential of ESM alternatives, it does provide a foundation for future research, including guidance related to participant profiles, stimulus characteristics, and data coding challenges.

A sparse equivalent source method for near-field acoustic holography.

PubMed

Fernandez-Grande, Efren; Xenaki, Angeliki; Gerstoft, Peter

2017-01-01

This study examines a near-field acoustic holography method consisting of a sparse formulation of the equivalent source method, based on the compressive sensing (CS) framework. The method, denoted Compressive-Equivalent Source Method (C-ESM), encourages spatially sparse solutions (based on the superposition of few waves) that are accurate when the acoustic sources are spatially localized. The importance of obtaining a non-redundant representation, i.e., a sensing matrix with low column coherence, and the inherent ill-conditioning of near-field reconstruction problems is addressed. Numerical and experimental results on a classical guitar and on a highly reactive dipole-like source are presented. C-ESM is valid beyond the conventional sampling limits, making wide-band reconstruction possible. Spatially extended sources can also be addressed with C-ESM, although in this case the obtained solution does not recover the spatial extent of the source.

Global scale environmental control of plant photosynthetic capacity

DOE PAGES

Ali, Ashehad; Xu, Chonggang; Rogers, Alistair; ...

2015-12-01

Photosynthetic capacity, determined by light harvesting and carboxylation reactions, is a key plant trait that determines the rate of photosynthesis; however, in Earth System Models (ESMs) at a reference temperature, it is either a fixed value for a given plant functional type or derived from a linear function of leaf nitrogen content. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis that considered correlations of environmental factors with photosynthetic capacity as determined by maximum carboxylation (V c,m) rate scaled to 25°C (i.e., V c,25; μmol CO 2·m –2·s –1) and maximum electron transport rate (Jmax) scaled to 25°C (i.e., J 25;more » μmol electron·m –2·s –1) at the global scale. Our results showed that the percentage of variation in observed Vc,25 and J25 explained jointly by the environmental factors (i.e., day length, radiation, temperature, and humidity) were 2–2.5 times and 6–9 times of that explained by area-based leaf nitrogen content, respectively. Environmental factors influenced photosynthetic capacity mainly through photosynthetic nitrogen use efficiency, rather than through leaf nitrogen content. The combination of leaf nitrogen content and environmental factors was able to explain ~56% and ~66% of the variation in V c,25 and J 25 at the global scale, respectively. As a result, our analyses suggest that model projections of plant photosynthetic capacity and hence land–atmosphere exchange under changing climatic conditions could be substantially improved if environmental factors are incorporated into algorithms used to parameterize photosynthetic capacity in ESMs.« less

Transient Atmospheric Circulation Changes in a Grand ensemble of Idealized CO2 Increase Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpechko, A.; Manzini, E.; Kornblueh, L.

2017-12-01

The yearly evolution with increasing forcing of the large-scale atmospheric circulation is examined in a 68-member ensemble of 1pctCO2 scenario experiments performed with the MPI-ESM model. Each member of the experiment ensemble is integrated for 155 years, from initial conditions taken from a 2000-yr long pre-industrial control climate experiment. The 1pctCO2 scenario experiments are conducted following the protocol of including as external forcing only a CO2 concentration increase at 1%/year, till quadrupling of CO2 concentrations. MPI-ESM is the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (including coupling between the atmosphere, ocean and seaice). By averaging over the 68 members (ensemble mean), atmospheric variability is greatly reduced. Thus, it is possible to investigate the sensitivity to the climate state of the atmospheric response to CO2 doubling. Indicators of global change show the expected monotonic evolution with increasing CO2 and a weak dependence of the thermodynamical response to CO2 doubling on the climate state. The surface climate response of the atmospheric circulation, diagnosed for instance by the pressure at sea level, and the eddy-driven jet response show instead a marked dependence to the climate state, for the Northern winter season. We find that as the CO2 concentration increases above doubling, Northern winter trends in some indicators of atmospheric circulation changes decrease or even reverse, posing the question on what are the causes of this nonlinear behavior. The investigation of the role of stationary waves, the meridional overturning circulation, the decrease in Arctic sea ice and the stratospheric vortex points to the latter as a plausible cause of such nonlinear response.

Constraints on biomass energy deployment in mitigation pathways: the case of water scarcity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Séférian, Roland; Rocher, Matthias; Guivarch, Céline; Colin, Jeanne

2018-05-01

To limit global warming to well below 2 ° most of the IPCC-WGIII future stringent mitigation pathways feature a massive global-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs) before the end of the century. The global-scale deployment of NETs like Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) can be hampered by climate constraints that are not taken into account by Integrated assessment models (IAMs) used to produce those pathways. Among the various climate constraints, water scarcity appears as a potential bottleneck for future land-based mitigation strategies and remains largely unexplored. Here, we assess climate constraints relative to water scarcity in response to the global deployment of BECCS. To this end, we confront results from an Earth system model (ESM) and an IAM under an array of 25 stringent mitigation pathways. These pathways are compatible with the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal and with cumulative carbon emissions ranging from 230 Pg C and 300 Pg C from January 1st onwards. We show that all stylized mitigation pathways studied in this work limit warming below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C by 2100 but all exhibit a temperature overshoot exceeding 2 °C after 2050. According to the IAM, a subset of 17 emission pathways are feasible when evaluated in terms of socio-economic and technological constraints. The ESM however shows that water scarcity would limit the deployment of BECCS in all the mitigation pathways assessed in this work. Our findings suggest that the evolution of the water resources under climate change can exert a significant constraint on BECCS deployment before 2050. In 2100, the BECCS water needs could represent more than 30% of the total precipitation in several regions like Europe or Asia.

Opportunities within NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate for Engineering Students and Faculty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garner, Lesley

2008-01-01

In 2006, NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) launched two new Educational Projects: (1) The ESMID Space Grant Student Project ; and (2) The ESM1D Space Grant Faculty Project. The Student Project consists of three student opportunities: exploration-related internships at NASA Centers or with space-related industry, senior design projects, and system engineering paper competitions. The ESMID Space Grant Faculty Project consists of two faculty opportunities: (1) a summer faculty fellowship; and (2) funding to develop a senior design course.

Smart LED lighting for major reductions in power and energy use for plant lighting in space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poulet, Lucie

Launching or resupplying food, oxygen, and water into space for long-duration, crewed missions to distant destinations, such as Mars, is currently impossible. Bioregenerative life-support systems under development worldwide involving photoautotrophic organisms offer a solution to the food dilemma. However, using traditional Earth-based lighting methods, growth of food crops consumes copious energy, and since sunlight will not always be available at different space destinations, efficient electric lighting solutions are badly needed to reduce the Equivalent System Mass (ESM) of life-support infrastructure to be launched and transported to future space destinations with sustainable human habitats. The scope of the present study was to demonstrate that using LEDs coupled to plant detection, and optimizing spectral and irradiance parameters of LED light, the model crop lettuce (Lactuca sativa L. cv. Waldmann's Green) can be grown with significantly lower electrical energy for plant lighting than using traditional lighting sources. Initial experiments aimed at adapting and troubleshooting a first-generation "smart" plant-detection system coupled to LED arrays resulted in optimizing the detection process for plant position and size to the limits of its current design. Lettuce crops were grown hydroponically in a growth chamber, where temperature, relative humidity, and CO2 level are controlled. Optimal irradiance and red/blue ratio of LED lighting were determined for plant growth during both lag and exponential phases of crop growth. Under optimizing conditions, the efficiency of the automatic detection system was integrated with LED switching and compared to a system in which all LEDs were energized throughout a crop-production cycle. At the end of each cropping cycle, plant fresh and dry weights and leaf area were measured and correlated with the amount of electrical energy (kWh) consumed. Preliminary results indicated that lettuce plants grown under optimizing conditions with red and blue LED lighting required 12 times less energy than with a traditional high-intensity discharge lighting system. This study paves the way for refinement of the smart lighting system and further, major reductions in ESM for space life-support systems and for ground-based controlled-environment agriculture. Project supported by NASA grant number NNX09AL99G.

Understanding Tropical Forest Abiotic Responses to Canopy Loss and Biomass Deposition from an Experimental Hurricane Manipulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Beusekom, A.; González, G.; Stankavitch, S.; Zimmerman, J. K.

2017-12-01

Understanding the nature and duration of the response of tropical forests to the extreme weather events of hurricanes is critical to understanding future forest regimes, as hurricanes are expected to increase in frequency with climate change. Here we present results from a manipulative experiment on hurricane disturbance effects in the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF) in Puerto Rico. The LEF is an example of a forest that would be in a frequent-hurricane region in Earth System Models (ESMs). Thus, the Canopy Trimming Experiment (CTE) was designed to study the key mechanisms behind such a forest's response after a major hurricane (category 4), and guide how repeated hurricanes might be expected to alter such ecosystems using these key mechanisms. Furthermore, with explicit forest manipulation instead of natural occurrence, it is possible to separate out which aspects of hurricane disturbance are most important to be accurately included in ESMs. Phase one of the experiments ran from 2005-2012, where it was found that short-term biotic responses of the forests were driven by canopy openness rather than by debris deposition. In phase two, running from 2014 through the present, we focus here on the abiotic changes forcing the overall response of the ecosystem. The manner in which these abiotic characteristics are disturbed and the speed at which they recover will be key to the continued existence of tropical forests under a climate with more frequent hurricane activity.

The GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM4.0/LM4.0: 2. Model description, sensitivity studies, and tuning strategies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, M.; Golaz, J.-C.; Held, I. M.; Guo, H.; Balaji, V.; Benson, R.; Chen, J.-H.; Chen, X.; Donner, L. J.; Dunne, J. P.; Dunne, Krista A.; Durachta, J.; Fan, S.-M.; Freidenreich, S. M.; Garner, S. T.; Ginoux, P.; Harris, L. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Krasting, J. P.; Langenhorst, A. R.; Liang, Z.; Lin, P.; Lin, S.-J.; Malyshev, S. L.; Mason, E.; Milly, Paul C.D.; Ming, Y.; Naik, V.; Paulot, F.; Paynter, D.; Phillipps, P.; Radhakrishnan, A.; Ramaswamy, V.; Robinson, T.; Schwarzkopf, D.; Seman, C. J.; Shevliakova, E.; Shen, Z.; Shin, H.; Silvers, L.; Wilson, J. R.; Winton, M.; Wittenberg, A. T.; Wyman, B.; Xiang, B.

2018-01-01

In Part 2 of this two‐part paper, documentation is provided of key aspects of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode has been provided in Part 1. Part 2 provides documentation of key components and some sensitivities to choices of model formulation and values of parameters, highlighting the convection parameterization and orographic gravity wave drag. The approach taken to tune the model's clouds to observations is a particular focal point. Care is taken to describe the extent to which aerosol effective forcing and Cess sensitivity have been tuned through the model development process, both of which are relevant to the ability of the model to simulate the evolution of temperatures over the last century when coupled to an ocean model.

The GFDL Global Atmosphere and Land Model AM4.0/LM4.0: 2. Model Description, Sensitivity Studies, and Tuning Strategies

DOE PAGES

Zhao, Ming; Golaz, J. -C.; Held, I. M.; ...

2018-02-19

Here, in Part 2 of this two–part paper, documentation is provided of key aspects of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode has been provided in Part 1. Part 2 provides documentation of key components and some sensitivities to choices of model formulation and values of parameters, highlighting the convection parameterization and orographic gravity wave drag. The approach taken tomore » tune the model's clouds to observations is a particular focal point. Care is taken to describe the extent to which aerosol effective forcing and Cess sensitivity have been tuned through the model development process, both of which are relevant to the ability of the model to simulate the evolution of temperatures over the last century when coupled to an ocean model.« less

The GFDL Global Atmosphere and Land Model AM4.0/LM4.0: 2. Model Description, Sensitivity Studies, and Tuning Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, M.; Golaz, J.-C.; Held, I. M.; Guo, H.; Balaji, V.; Benson, R.; Chen, J.-H.; Chen, X.; Donner, L. J.; Dunne, J. P.; Dunne, K.; Durachta, J.; Fan, S.-M.; Freidenreich, S. M.; Garner, S. T.; Ginoux, P.; Harris, L. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Krasting, J. P.; Langenhorst, A. R.; Liang, Z.; Lin, P.; Lin, S.-J.; Malyshev, S. L.; Mason, E.; Milly, P. C. D.; Ming, Y.; Naik, V.; Paulot, F.; Paynter, D.; Phillipps, P.; Radhakrishnan, A.; Ramaswamy, V.; Robinson, T.; Schwarzkopf, D.; Seman, C. J.; Shevliakova, E.; Shen, Z.; Shin, H.; Silvers, L. G.; Wilson, J. R.; Winton, M.; Wittenberg, A. T.; Wyman, B.; Xiang, B.

2018-03-01

In Part 2 of this two-part paper, documentation is provided of key aspects of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode has been provided in Part 1. Part 2 provides documentation of key components and some sensitivities to choices of model formulation and values of parameters, highlighting the convection parameterization and orographic gravity wave drag. The approach taken to tune the model's clouds to observations is a particular focal point. Care is taken to describe the extent to which aerosol effective forcing and Cess sensitivity have been tuned through the model development process, both of which are relevant to the ability of the model to simulate the evolution of temperatures over the last century when coupled to an ocean model.

The GFDL Global Atmosphere and Land Model AM4.0/LM4.0: 2. Model Description, Sensitivity Studies, and Tuning Strategies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Ming; Golaz, J. -C.; Held, I. M.

Here, in Part 2 of this two–part paper, documentation is provided of key aspects of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode has been provided in Part 1. Part 2 provides documentation of key components and some sensitivities to choices of model formulation and values of parameters, highlighting the convection parameterization and orographic gravity wave drag. The approach taken tomore » tune the model's clouds to observations is a particular focal point. Care is taken to describe the extent to which aerosol effective forcing and Cess sensitivity have been tuned through the model development process, both of which are relevant to the ability of the model to simulate the evolution of temperatures over the last century when coupled to an ocean model.« less

Selective Absorption Mechanism for the Maintenance of Blocking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamazaki, Akira; Itoh, Hisanori

2010-05-01

Atmospheric blocking is one of the most influential phenomena in global atmospheric environments. The understanding of its dynamical processes is important to clarify weather extremes and the stratosphere-troposphere coupling and to extend forecast periods. In the dynamics of blocking, especially, its maintenance mechanism has been a stimulating topic for many meteorologists. About the maintenance mechanism of blocking, Shutts (1983) evaluated the effect of synoptic eddies in his numerical model and proposed the Eddy Straining Mechanism (hereafter, referred to as ESM). Using simple numerical models, he demonstrated that synoptic eddies strained in the north-south direction by blocking provide negative/positive vorticity to a blocking high/low and this vorticity forcing, i.e., the second-order flow maintains the blocking dipole structure against dissipation. Some pieces of evidence, however have shown that the ESM does not work well in several real cases of the block maintenance. For example, Arai and Mukougawa (2002) performed a similar experiment to Shutts (1983) and indicated the strong sensitivity of the ESM against a small meridional shift of the stormtrack (strictly speaking, wavemaker), or a small change of the size of high-frequency eddies. This is a very adverse constraint in the real atmosphere because the relative positions of blocking to the stormtrack tend to fluctuate from case to case so that they do not necessarily exist in the same latitude band. Thus, we propose a more realistic mechanism of the block maintenance named as the Selective Absorption Mechanism (hereafter referred to as SAM), in which a blocking anticyclone selectively and exclusively absorbs synoptic anticyclones. This mechanism is essentially the same mechanism as the Fujiwhara effect, which qualitatively explains that binary eddies with the same polarity merge and eddies with the opposite polarity separate. In this study, we verify the effectiveness of the SAM by observational analyses and simple numerical experiments. Ten episodes of blocking that occurred in the mid-North Pacific and the eastern North Atlantic between 1990 and 2005 are investigated. Trajectories of synoptic anticyclones and cyclones during blocking persistent periods are analyzed and show the selective absorption of anticyclonic eddies by the blocking highs. We also perform numerical experiments using the nonlinear barotropic vorticity equation on a beta-plane channel. The maintenance rate of blocking is quantitatively evaluated by using an areal averaged method. The result supports the block maintenance by the SAM. From the above two results, we can conclude that the SAM is more adaptive as the block maintenance mechanism than the ESM, because the essence of the SAM is absorption of eddies, not but eddy straining.

Influence of North Atlantic modes on European climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Proemmel, K.; Cubasch, U.

2017-12-01

It is well known that the North Atlantic strongly influences European climate. Only few studies exist that focus on its impact on climate extremes. We are interested in these extremes and the processes and mechanisms behind it. For the analysis of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) we use simulations performed with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The NAO has a strong impact especially on European winter and the changes in minimum temperature are even larger than in maximum temperature. The impact of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV) on climate extremes is analyzed in ECHAM6 simulations forced with AMV warm and AMV cold sea surface temperature patterns. We analyze different extreme indices and try to understand the processes.

Gold biorecovery from e-waste: An improved strategy through spent medium leaching with pH modification.

PubMed

Natarajan, Gayathri; Ting, Yen-Peng

2015-10-01

Rapid technological advancement and relatively short life time of electronic goods have resulted in an alarming growth rate of electronic waste which often contains significant quantities of toxic and precious metals. Compared to conventional recovery methods, bioleaching is an environmentally friendly process for metal extraction. Gold was bioleached from electronic scrap materials (ESM) via gold-cyanide complexation using cyanide produced from pure and mixed cultures of cyanogenic bacteria Chromobacterium violaceum, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Pseudomonas fluorescens. As ESM was toxic to the bacteria, a two-step bioleaching approach was adopted where the solid waste was added to the bacterial culture after it has reached maximum growth and cyanide production during early stationary phase. Pure culture of C. violaceum showed the highest cyanide production, yielding maximum gold recovery of 11.3% at 0.5% w/v pulp density of ESM in two-step bioleaching. At the same pulp density of ESM, spent medium bioleaching using bacterial cell-free metabolites achieved gold recovery of 18%. Recovery increased to 30% when the pH of the spent medium was increased to shift the equilibrium in favor of cyanide ions production. It is demonstrated for the first time that pH modification of spent medium further improved metal solubilization and yielded higher metal recovery (compared to two-step bioleaching). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Electrocorticographic language mapping with a listening task consisting of alternating speech and music phrases.

PubMed

Mooij, Anne H; Huiskamp, Geertjan J M; Gosselaar, Peter H; Ferrier, Cyrille H

2016-02-01

Electrocorticographic (ECoG) mapping of high gamma activity induced by language tasks has been proposed as a more patient friendly alternative for electrocortical stimulation mapping (ESM), the gold standard in pre-surgical language mapping of epilepsy patients. However, ECoG mapping often reveals more language areas than considered critical with ESM. We investigated if critical language areas can be identified with a listening task consisting of speech and music phrases. Nine patients with implanted subdural grid electrodes listened to an audio fragment in which music and speech alternated. We analysed ECoG power in the 65-95 Hz band and obtained task-related activity patterns in electrodes over language areas. We compared the spatial distribution of sites that discriminated between listening to speech and music to ESM results using sensitivity and specificity calculations. Our listening task of alternating speech and music phrases had a low sensitivity (0.32) but a high specificity (0.95). The high specificity indicates that this test does indeed point to areas that are critical to language processing. Our test cannot replace ESM, but this short and simple task can give a reliable indication where to find critical language areas, better than ECoG mapping using language tasks alone. Copyright © 2015 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Response of O2 and pH to ENSO in the California Current System in a high-resolution global climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turi, Giuliana; Alexander, Michael; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Capotondi, Antonietta; Scott, James; Stock, Charles; Dunne, John; John, Jasmin; Jacox, Michael

2018-02-01

Coastal upwelling systems, such as the California Current System (CalCS), naturally experience a wide range of O2 concentrations and pH values due to the seasonality of upwelling. Nonetheless, changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been shown to measurably affect the biogeochemical and physical properties of coastal upwelling regions. In this study, we use a novel, high-resolution global climate model (GFDL-ESM2.6) to investigate the influence of warm and cold ENSO events on variations in the O2 concentration and the pH of the CalCS coastal waters. An assessment of the CalCS response to six El Niño and seven La Niña events in ESM2.6 reveals significant variations in the response between events. However, these variations overlay a consistent physical and biogeochemical (O2 and pH) response in the composite mean. Focusing on the mean response, our results demonstrate that O2 and pH are affected rather differently in the euphotic zone above ˜ 100 m. The strongest O2 response reaches up to several hundreds of kilometers offshore, whereas the pH signal occurs only within a ˜ 100 km wide band along the coast. By splitting the changes in O2 and pH into individual physical and biogeochemical components that are affected by ENSO variability, we found that O2 variability in the surface ocean is primarily driven by changes in surface temperature that affect the O2 solubility. In contrast, surface pH changes are predominantly driven by changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), which in turn is affected by upwelling, explaining the confined nature of the pH signal close to the coast. Below ˜ 100 m, we find conditions with anomalously low O2 and pH, and by extension also anomalously low aragonite saturation, during La Niña. This result is consistent with findings from previous studies and highlights the stress that the CalCS ecosystem could periodically undergo in addition to impacts due to climate change.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

LaRow, Timothy

The SSTs used in our study come from the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) (Gent et al 2011) and from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CanESM2) (Chylek et al20ll) climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) (Taylor et al2012). We've examined the tropical cyclones using both the historical simulation that employs volcanic and aerosol forcing as well as the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). In addition, we've compared the present day North Atlantic tropical cyclone metrics from a previous study (LaRow, 2013) to these climate change experiments. The experimental setup is shownmore » in Table 1. We considered the CMIP5 experiment number '3.2 historical' (Taylor et al,201l), which provides simulations of the recent past (1850-2005). The second set of CMIP5 SSTs is the RCp4.5 experiment where the radiative forcing stabilizes at 45W m-2 after 2100 (experiment number 4.1 in Taylor etal2}ll).« less

Dynamic Hydrological Discharge Modelling for Fully Coupled Paleoclimate Runs of the Last Glacial Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riddick, Thomas; Brovkin, Victor; Hagemann, Stefan; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

2017-04-01

The continually evolving large ice sheets present in the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial cycle caused significant changes to river pathways both through directly blocking rivers and through glacial isostatic adjustment. These river pathway changes are believed to of had a significant impact on the evolution of ocean circulation through changing the pattern of fresh water discharge into the oceans. A fully coupled ESM simulation of the last glacial cycle thus requires a hydrological discharge model that uses a set of river pathways that evolve with the earth's changing orography while being able to reproduce the known present-day river network given the present-day orography. Here we present a method for dynamically modelling hydrological discharge that meets such requirements by applying relative manual corrections to an evolving fine scale orography (accounting for the changing ice sheets and isostatic rebound) each time the river directions are recalculated. The corrected orography thus produced is then used to create a set of fine scale river pathways and these are then upscaled to a course scale. An existing present-day hydrological discharge model within the JSBACH3 land surface model is run using the course scale river pathways generated. This method will be used in fully coupled paleoclimate runs made using MPI-ESM1 as part of the PalMod project. Tests show this procedure reproduces the known present-day river network to a sufficient degree of accuracy.

Evaluation of Historical and Projected Surface Air Temperature Simulations over China in CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, L.; Frauenfeld, O. W.

2013-12-01

Projections of future temperature in China are crucial for assessments of climate change and implementation of appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies. With the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5), the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) was developed for assessing the latest state-of-the-art climate models and their projections. In this study, monthly surface air temperature from 20 CMIP5 models and four experiments (historical, RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) were used to investigate the temperature variability over China during the 20th century, and future changes for the 21st century. Two observational datasets (CRU TS 3.1 and the global terrestrial air temperature dataset from the University of Delaware) were adopted to evaluate the performance of the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble average, the performance of individual models, as well as the possible improvements in CMIP5 relative to CMIP3. Results show that both CMIP3 and CMIP5 have cold biases over most parts of China. CMIP5 displays a slightly better agreement with the observations than CMIP3, but substantial cold biases still exist over the Tibetan Plateau, especially in the cold season. These biases are also characterized by the greatest discrepancies among the individual models, indicating the models' limitations over this mountainous region. Both CMIP3 and CMIP5 show poor agreement with observed 20th-century temperature trends such that the spatial and seasonal patterns of the trends are not captured in the multimodel ensemble averages. Comparing individual models we find that MPI-ESM-LR, CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and CCSM4 exhibit better skill than the other models in this part of the world. Projections of future temperature suggest that there will be a gradual increase in annual surface air temperature in China during the 21st century at a rate of 0.60°C/decade and 0.27°C/decade under the RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, respectively. RCP 2.6 shows the slowest warming at a rate of 0.10°C/decade for the whole 21st century, but temperature will increase until 2040, and then remain stable or even decrease slightly. Based on the three emission scenarios, annual temperatures are projected to rise by 1.7-5.7°C by the end of the 21st century, and the greatest warming will occur over northern China and the Tibetan Plateau.

Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) Preparation for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denvil, S.; Murphy, S.; Greenslade, M. A.; Lawrence, B.; Guilyardi, E.; Pascoe, C.; Treshanksy, A.; Elkington, M.; Hibling, E.; Hassell, D.

2015-12-01

During the course of 2015 the Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) project began its preparations for CMIP6 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 6) by further extending the ES-DOC tooling ecosystem in support of Earth System Model (ESM) documentation creation, search, viewing & comparison. The ES-DOC online questionnaire, the ES-DOC desktop notebook, and the ES-DOC python toolkit will serve as multiple complementary pathways to generating CMIP6 documentation. It is envisaged that institutes will leverage these tools at different points of the CMIP6 lifecycle. Institutes will be particularly interested to know that the documentation burden will be either streamlined or completely automated.As all the tools are tightly integrated with the ES-DOC web-service, institutes can be confident that the latency between documentation creation & publishing will be reduced to a minimum. Published documents will be viewable with the online ES-DOC Viewer (accessible via citable URL's). Model inter-comparison scenarios will be supported using the ES-DOC online Comparator tool. The Comparator is being extended to:• Support comparison of both Model descriptions & Simulation runs;• Greatly streamline the effort involved in compiling official tables.The entire ES-DOC ecosystem is open source and built upon open standards such as the Common Information Model (CIM) (versions 1 and 2).

Mathematical Modeling of Food Supply for Long Term Space Missions Using Advanced Life Support

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cruthirds, John E.

2003-01-01

A habitat for long duration missions which utilizes Advanced Life Support (ALS), the Bioregenerative Planetary Life Support Systems Test Complex (BIO-Plex), is currently being built at JSC. In this system all consumables will be recycled and reused. In support of this effort, a menu is being planned utilizing ALS crops that will meet nutritional and psychological requirements. The need exists in the food system to identify specific physical quantities that define life support systems from an analysis and modeling perspective. Once these quantities are defined, they need to be fed into a mathematical model that takes into consideration other systems in the BIO-Plex. This model, if successful, will be used to understand the impacts of changes in the food system on the other systems and vice versa. The Equivalent System Mass (ESM) metric has been used to describe systems and subsystems, including the food system options, in terms of the single parameter, mass. There is concern that this approach might not adequately address the important issues of food quality and psychological impact on crew morale of a supply of fiesh food items. In fact, the mass of food can also depend on the quality of the food. This summer faculty fellow project will involve creating an appropriate mathematical model for the food plan developed by the Food Processing System for BIO-Plex. The desired outcome of this work will be a quantitative model that can be applied to the various options of supplying food on long-term space missions.

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, Paul; Blackport, Russell

2017-04-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them. References: Blackport, R. and P. Kushner, 2017: Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system. J. Climate, in press. Blackport, R. and P. Kushner, 2016: The Transient and Equilibrium Climate Response to Rapid Summertime Sea Ice Loss in CCSM4. J. Climate, 29, 401-417, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0284.1.

The role of local sea surface temperature pattern changes in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hand, Ralf; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Bader, Jürgen; Greatbatch, Richard J.

2018-03-01

Beside its global effects, climate change is manifested in many regionally pronounced features mainly resulting from changes in the oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Here we investigate the influence of the North Atlantic SST on shaping the winter-time response to global warming. Our results are based on a long-term climate projection with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to investigate the influence of North Atlantic sea surface temperature pattern changes on shaping the atmospheric climate change signal. In sensitivity experiments with the model's atmospheric component we decompose the response into components controlled by the local SST structure and components controlled by global/remote changes. MPI-ESM simulates a global warming response in SST similar to other climate models: there is a warming minimum—or "warming hole"—in the subpolar North Atlantic, and the sharp SST gradients associated with the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current shift northward by a few a degrees. Over the warming hole, global warming causes a relatively weak increase in rainfall. Beyond this, our experiments show more localized effects, likely resulting from future SST gradient changes in the North Atlantic. This includes a significant precipitation decrease to the south of the Gulf Stream despite increased underlying SSTs. Since this region is characterised by a strong band of precipitation in the current climate, this is contrary to the usual case that wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier in a warmer climate. A moisture budget analysis identifies a complex interplay of various processes in the region of modified SST gradients: reduced surface winds cause a decrease in evaporation; and thermodynamic, modified atmospheric eddy transports, and coastal processes cause a change in the moisture convergence. The changes in the the North Atlantic storm track are mainly controlled by the non-regional changes in the forcing. The impact of the local SST pattern changes on regions outside the North Atlantic is small in our setup.

How does soil erosion influence the terrestrial carbon cycle and the impacts of land use and land cover change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naipal, V.; Wang, Y.; Ciais, P.; Guenet, B.; Lauerwald, R.

2017-12-01

The onset of agriculture has accelerated soil erosion rates significantly, mobilizing vast quantities of soil organic carbon (SOC) globally. Studies show that at timescales of decennia to millennia this mobilized SOC can significantly alter previously estimated carbon emissions from land use and land cover change (LULCC). However, a full understanding of the impact of soil erosion on land-atmosphere carbon exchange is still missing. The aim of our study is to better constrain the terrestrial carbon fluxes by developing methods, which are compatible with earth system models (ESMs), and explicitly represent the links between soil erosion and carbon dynamics. For this we use an emulator that represents the carbon cycle of ORCHIDEE, which is the land component of the IPSL ESM, in combination with an adjusted version of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model. We applied this modeling framework at the global scale to evaluate how soil erosion influenced the terrestrial carbon cycle in the presence of elevated CO2, regional climate change and land use change. Here, we focus on the effects of soil detachment by erosion only and do not consider sediment transport and deposition. We found that including soil erosion in the SOC dynamics-scheme resulted in two times more SOC being lost during the historical period (1850-2005 AD). LULCC is the main contributor to this SOC loss, whose impact on the SOC stocks is significantly amplified by erosion. Regionally, the influence of soil erosion varies significantly, depending on the magnitude of the perturbations to the carbon cycle and the effects of LULCC and climate change on soil erosion rates. We conclude that it is necessary to include soil erosion in assessments of LULCC, and to explicitly consider the effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on the carbon cycle and on soil erosion, for better quantification of past, present, and future LULCC carbon emissions.

Model evaluation using a community benchmarking system for land surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mu, M.; Hoffman, F. M.; Lawrence, D. M.; Riley, W. J.; Keppel-Aleks, G.; Kluzek, E. B.; Koven, C. D.; Randerson, J. T.

2014-12-01

Evaluation of atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface models is an important step in identifying deficiencies in Earth system models and developing improved estimates of future change. For the land surface and carbon cycle, the design of an open-source system has been an important objective of the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) project. Here we evaluated CMIP5 and CLM models using a benchmarking system that enables users to specify models, data sets, and scoring systems so that results can be tailored to specific model intercomparison projects. Our scoring system used information from four different aspects of global datasets, including climatological mean spatial patterns, seasonal cycle dynamics, interannual variability, and long-term trends. Variable-to-variable comparisons enable investigation of the mechanistic underpinnings of model behavior, and allow for some control of biases in model drivers. Graphics modules allow users to evaluate model performance at local, regional, and global scales. Use of modular structures makes it relatively easy for users to add new variables, diagnostic metrics, benchmarking datasets, or model simulations. Diagnostic results are automatically organized into HTML files, so users can conveniently share results with colleagues. We used this system to evaluate atmospheric carbon dioxide, burned area, global biomass and soil carbon stocks, net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production, ecosystem respiration, terrestrial water storage, evapotranspiration, and surface radiation from CMIP5 historical and ESM historical simulations. We found that the multi-model mean often performed better than many of the individual models for most variables. We plan to publicly release a stable version of the software during fall of 2014 that has land surface, carbon cycle, hydrology, radiation and energy cycle components.

Decadal predictions of the North Atlantic CO2 uptake.

PubMed

Li, Hongmei; Ilyina, Tatiana; Müller, Wolfgang A; Sienz, Frank

2016-03-30

As a major CO2 sink, the North Atlantic, especially its subpolar gyre region, is essential for the global carbon cycle. Decadal fluctuations of CO2 uptake in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre region are associated with the evolution of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, ocean mixing and sea surface temperature anomalies. While variations in the physical state of the ocean can be predicted several years in advance by initialization of Earth system models, predictability of CO2 uptake has remained unexplored. Here we investigate the predictability of CO2 uptake variations by initialization of the MPI-ESM decadal prediction system. We find large multi-year variability in oceanic CO2 uptake and demonstrate that its potential predictive skill in the western subpolar gyre region is up to 4-7 years. The predictive skill is mainly maintained in winter and is attributed to the improved physical state of the ocean.

Future Effects of Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric Zonal Asymmetries on Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, K.; Solomon, S.; Kinnison, D. E.; Fyfe, J. C.

2017-12-01

Stratospheric zonal asymmetries in the Southern Hemisphere have been shown to have significant influences on both stratospheric and tropospheric dynamics and climate. Accurate representation of stratospheric ozone in particular is important for realistic simulation of the polar vortex strength and temperature trends. This is therefore also important for stratospheric ozone change's effect on the troposphere, both through modulation of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and more localized climate. Here, we characterization the impact of future changes in Southern Hemisphere zonal asymmetry on tropospheric climate, including changes to future tropospheric temperature, and precipitation. The separate impacts of increasing GHGs and ozone recovery on the zonal asymmetric influence on the surface are also investigated. For this purpose, we use a variety of models, including Chemistry Climate Model Initiative simulations from the Community Earth System Model, version 1, with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM1(WACCM)) and the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator-Chemistry Climate Model (ACCESS-CCM). These models have interactive chemistry and can therefore more accurately represent the zonally asymmetric nature of the stratosphere. The CESM1(WACCM) and ACCESS-CCM models are also compared to simulations from the Canadian Can2ESM model and CESM-Large Ensemble Project (LENS) that have prescribed ozone to further investigate the importance of simulating stratospheric zonal asymmetry.

Use of an Electromagnetic Seepage Meter to Investigate Temporal Variability in Lake Seepage

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenberry, D.O.; Morin, R.H.

2004-01-01

A commercially available electromagnetic flowmeter is attached to a seepage cylinder to create an electromagnetic seepage meter (ESM) for automating measurement of fluxes across the sediment/water interface between ground water and surface water. The ESM is evaluated through its application at two lakes in New England, one where water seeps into the lake and one where water seeps out of the lake. The electromagnetic flowmeter replaces the seepage-meter bag and provides a continuous series of measurements from which temporal seepage processes can be investigated. It provides flow measurements over a range of three orders of magnitude, and contains no protruding components or moving parts. The ESM was used to evaluate duration of seepage disturbance following meter installation and indicated natural seepage rates resumed approximately one hour following meter insertion in a sandy lakebed. Lakebed seepage also varied considerably in response to lakebed disturbances, near-shore waves, and rain-falls, indicating hydrologic processes are occurring in shallow lakebed settings at time scales that have largely gone unobserved.

Piloting the use of experience sampling method to investigate the everyday social experiences of children with Asperger syndrome/high functioning autism.

PubMed

Cordier, Reinie; Brown, Nicole; Chen, Yu-Wei; Wilkes-Gillan, Sarah; Falkmer, Torbjorn

2016-01-01

This pilot study explored the nature and quality of social experiences of children with Asperger Syndrome/High Functioning Autism (AS/HFA) through experience sampling method (ESM) while participating in everyday activities. ESM was used to identify the contexts and content of daily life experiences. Six children with AS/HFA (aged 8-12) wore an iPod Touch on seven consecutive days, while being signalled to complete a short survey. Participants were in the company of others 88.3% of their waking time, spent 69.0% of their time with family and 3.8% with friends, but only conversed with others 26.8% of the time. Participants had more positive experiences and emotions when they were with friends compared with other company. Participating in leisure activities was associated with enjoyment, interest in the occasion, and having positive emotions. ESM was found to be helpful in identifying the nature and quality of social experiences of children with AS/HFA from their perspective.

Use of an electromagnetic seepage meter to investigate temporal variability in lake seepage.

PubMed

Rosenberry, Donald O; Morin, Roger H

2004-01-01

A commercially available electromagnetic flowmeter is attached to a seepage cylinder to create an electromagnetic seepage meter (ESM) for automating measurement of fluxes across the sediment/water interface between ground water and surface water. The ESM is evaluated through its application at two lakes in New England, one where water seeps into the lake and one where water seeps out of the lake. The electromagnetic flowmeter replaces the seepage-meter bag and provides a continuous series of measurements from which temporal seepage processes can be investigated. It provides flow measurements over a range of three orders of magnitude, and contains no protruding components or moving parts. The ESM was used to evaluate duration of seepage disturbance following meter installation and indicated natural seepage rates resumed approximately one hour following meter insertion in a sandy lakebed. Lakebed seepage also varied considerably in response to lakebed disturbances, near-shore waves, and rainfalls, indicating hydrologic processes are occurring in shallow lakebed settings at time scales that have largely gone unobserved.

MAS Bulletin. Papers Presented at Advisory Group for Aerospace Research and Development (AGARD) Symposium on Machine Intelligence for Aerospace Electronic Systems.

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-08-01

neural networks, and machine learning . This list ie not all 9. Future ESM Systems and the Potential for Neural Processing inclusive. This research could...U.S. CAPT James M. Skinner , USAF, Air Force Space Technology 17. Development of Tactical Doecisiont Akid. Center, and Prof. Georg* F. Luger...ntegrat11111ng Macine I~1e900enc Into the Co~pi to Aid t" Pilot 26. Integrated Communications, Navigatlion. Ideintiflocation Avionics Dr. Edward J

Improving the Fit of a Land-Surface Model to Data Using its Adjoint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raoult, Nina; Jupp, Tim; Cox, Peter; Luke, Catherine

2016-04-01

Land-surface models (LSMs) are crucial components of the Earth System Models (ESMs) which are used to make coupled climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) is the land-surface model used in the climate and weather forecast models of the UK Met Office. In this study, JULES is automatically differentiated using commercial software from FastOpt, resulting in an analytical gradient, or adjoint, of the model. Using this adjoint, the adJULES parameter estimation system has been developed, to search for locally optimum parameter sets by calibrating against observations. We present an introduction to the adJULES system and demonstrate its ability to improve the model-data fit using eddy covariance measurements of gross primary production (GPP) and latent heat (LE) fluxes. adJULES also has the ability to calibrate over multiple sites simultaneously. This feature is used to define new optimised parameter values for the 5 Plant Functional Types (PFTS) in JULES. The optimised PFT-specific parameters improve the performance of JULES over 90% of the FLUXNET sites used in the study. These reductions in error are shown and compared to reductions found due to site-specific optimisations. Finally, we show that calculation of the 2nd derivative of JULES allows us to produce posterior probability density functions of the parameters and how knowledge of parameter values is constrained by observations.

Simulating damage for wind storms in the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yi-Ying; Gardiner, Barry; Pasztor, Ferenc; Blennow, Kristina; Ryder, James; Valade, Aude; Naudts, Kim; Otto, Juliane; McGrath, Matthew J.; Planque, Carole; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan

2018-03-01

Earth system models (ESMs) are currently the most advanced tools with which to study the interactions among humans, ecosystem productivity, and the climate. The inclusion of storm damage in ESMs has long been hampered by their big-leaf approach, which ignores the canopy structure information that is required for process-based wind-throw modelling. Recently the big-leaf assumptions in the large-scale land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN were replaced by a three-dimensional description of the canopy structure. This opened the way to the integration of the processes from the small-scale wind damage risk model ForestGALES into ORCHIDEE-CAN. The integration of ForestGALES into ORCHIDEE-CAN required, however, developing numerically efficient solutions to deal with (1) landscape heterogeneity, i.e. account for newly established forest edges for the parameterization of gusts; (2) downscaling spatially and temporally aggregated wind fields to obtain more realistic wind speeds that would represents gusts; and (3) downscaling storm damage within the 2500 km2 pixels of ORCHIDEE-CAN. This new version of ORCHIDEE-CAN was parameterized over Sweden. Subsequently, the performance of the model was tested against data for historical storms in southern Sweden between 1951 and 2010 and south-western France in 2009. In years without big storms, here defined as a storm damaging less than 15 × 106 m3 of wood in Sweden, the model error is 1.62 × 106 m3, which is about 100 % of the observed damage. For years with big storms, such as Gudrun in 2005, the model error increased to 5.05 × 106 m3, which is between 10 and 50 % of the observed damage. When the same model parameters were used over France, the model reproduced a decrease in leaf area index and an increase in albedo, in accordance with SPOT-VGT and MODIS records following the passing of Cyclone Klaus in 2009. The current version of ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262) is therefore expected to have the capability to capture the dynamics of forest structure due to storm disturbance on both regional and global scales, although the empirical parameters calculating gustiness from the gridded wind fields and storm damage from critical wind speeds may benefit from regional fitting.

Impacts of microtopographic snow-redistribution and lateral subsurface processeson hydrologic and thermal states in an Arctic polygonal ground ecosystem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bisht, Gautam; Riley, William J.; Wainwright, Haruko M.

Microtopographic features, such as polygonal ground, are characteristic sources of landscape heterogeneity in the Alaskan Arctic coastal plain. We analyze the effects of snow redistribution (SR) and lateral subsurface processes on hydrologic and thermal states at a polygonal tundra site near Barrow, Alaska. We extended the land model integrated in the ACME Earth System Model (ESM) to redistribute incoming snow by accounting for microtopography and incorporated subsurface lateral transport of water and energy (ALMv0-3D). Three 10-years long simulations were performed for a transect across polygonal tundra landscape at the Barrow Environmental Observatory in Alaska to isolate the impact of SRmore » and subsurface process representation. When SR was included, model results show a better agreement (higher R 2 with lower bias and RMSE) for the observed differences in snow depth between polygonal rims and centers. The model was also able to accurately reproduce observed soil temperature vertical profiles in the polygon rims and centers (overall bias, RMSE, and R 2 of 0.59°C, 1.82°C, and 0.99, respectively). The spatial heterogeneity of snow depth during the winter due to SR generated surface soil temperature heterogeneity that propagated in depth and time and led to ~10 cm shallower and ~5 cm deeper maximum annual thaw depths under the polygon rims and centers, respectively. Additionally, SR led to spatial heterogeneity in surface energy fluxes and soil moisture during the summer. Excluding lateral subsurface hydrologic and thermal processes led to small effects on mean states but an overestimation of spatial variability in soil moisture and soil temperature as subsurface liquid pressure and thermal gradients were artificially prevented from spatially dissipating over time. The effect of lateral subsurface processes on active layer depths was modest with mean absolute difference of ~3 cm. Finally, our integration of three-dimensional subsurface hydrologic and thermal subsurface dynamics in the ACME land model will facilitate a wide range of analyses heretofore impossible in an ESM context.« less

Impacts of microtopographic snow-redistribution and lateral subsurface processeson hydrologic and thermal states in an Arctic polygonal ground ecosystem

DOE PAGES

Bisht, Gautam; Riley, William J.; Wainwright, Haruko M.; ...

2018-01-08

Microtopographic features, such as polygonal ground, are characteristic sources of landscape heterogeneity in the Alaskan Arctic coastal plain. We analyze the effects of snow redistribution (SR) and lateral subsurface processes on hydrologic and thermal states at a polygonal tundra site near Barrow, Alaska. We extended the land model integrated in the ACME Earth System Model (ESM) to redistribute incoming snow by accounting for microtopography and incorporated subsurface lateral transport of water and energy (ALMv0-3D). Three 10-years long simulations were performed for a transect across polygonal tundra landscape at the Barrow Environmental Observatory in Alaska to isolate the impact of SRmore » and subsurface process representation. When SR was included, model results show a better agreement (higher R 2 with lower bias and RMSE) for the observed differences in snow depth between polygonal rims and centers. The model was also able to accurately reproduce observed soil temperature vertical profiles in the polygon rims and centers (overall bias, RMSE, and R 2 of 0.59°C, 1.82°C, and 0.99, respectively). The spatial heterogeneity of snow depth during the winter due to SR generated surface soil temperature heterogeneity that propagated in depth and time and led to ~10 cm shallower and ~5 cm deeper maximum annual thaw depths under the polygon rims and centers, respectively. Additionally, SR led to spatial heterogeneity in surface energy fluxes and soil moisture during the summer. Excluding lateral subsurface hydrologic and thermal processes led to small effects on mean states but an overestimation of spatial variability in soil moisture and soil temperature as subsurface liquid pressure and thermal gradients were artificially prevented from spatially dissipating over time. The effect of lateral subsurface processes on active layer depths was modest with mean absolute difference of ~3 cm. Finally, our integration of three-dimensional subsurface hydrologic and thermal subsurface dynamics in the ACME land model will facilitate a wide range of analyses heretofore impossible in an ESM context.« less

Is psychotic disorder associated with increased levels of craving for cannabis? An Experience Sampling study.

PubMed

Kuepper, R; Oorschot, M; Myin-Germeys, I; Smits, M; van Os, J; Henquet, C

2013-12-01

Although cannabis use among individuals with psychotic disorder is considerable, little is known about patterns of use and factors contributing to continuation of use. Therefore, we investigated craving in relation to cannabis use in patients with psychotic disorder and healthy controls. The study included 58 patients with non-affective psychotic disorder and 63 healthy controls; all were frequent cannabis users. Craving was assessed with the Obsessive Compulsive Drug Use Scale (OCDUS) for cannabis, as well as in daily life using the Experience Sampling Method (ESM). Patients scored higher on the OCDUS (B = 1.18, P = 0.022), but did not differ from controls in ESM indices of craving (all P > 0.05). In daily life, ESM craving predicted cannabis use and this was stronger in controls (χ(2) = 4.5, P = 0.033; Bcontrols = 0.08, P < 0.001; Bpatients = 0.06, P < 0.001). In both groups ESM craving was predicted by negative affect, paranoia, and hallucinations (Bnegativeaffect = 0.12, P = 0.009; Bparanoia = 0.13, P = 0.013; Bhallucinations = 0.13, P = 0.028), and followed by an increase in negative affect at non-cannabis-using moments (B = 0.03, P = 0.002). The temporal dynamics of craving as well as craving intensity in daily life appear to be similar in patients and controls. Further research is needed to elucidate the inconsistencies between cross-sectional and daily-life measures of craving in psychosis. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Projected Changes in the Annual Cycle of Precipitation over Central Asia by CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, X.; Zhao, Y.

2017-12-01

Future changes in the annual cycle of the precipitation in central Asia (CA) were estimated based on the historical and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) experiments from 25 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Compared with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observations, the historical (1979-1999) experiments showed that most models can capture the migration of rainfall centers, but remarkable discrepancies exist in the location and intensity of rainfall centers between simulations and observations. Considering the skill scores of precipitation and pattern correlations of circulations, which are closely related to the precipitation for each month, for the 25 models, the four best models (e.g., CanESM2, CMCC-CMS, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR) with relatively good performance were selected. The four models' ensemble mean indicated that the migration and location of the precipitation centers were better reproduced, except the intensity of the centers was overestimated, compared with the result that only considered precipitation. Based on the four best models' ensemble mean under RCP8.5 scenarios, precipitation was projected to increase dramatically over most of the CA region in the boreal cold seasons (November, December, January, February, March, April and May) with the maximum in December in the end of twenty-first century (2079-2099), and several positive centers were located in the Pamirs Plateau and the Tianshan Mountains. By contrast, the precipitation changes were weak in the boreal warm seasons (June, July, August, September and October), with a wet center located in the northern Himalayas. Furthermore, there remain some uncertainties in the projected precipitation regions and periods obtained by comparing models' ensemble results of this paper and the results of previous studies. These uncertainties should be investigated in future work.

Increased ventilation of Antarctic deep water during the warm mid-Pliocene.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhongshi; Nisancioglu, Kerim H; Ninnemann, Ulysses S

2013-01-01

The mid-Pliocene warm period is a recent warm geological period that shares similarities with predictions of future climate. It is generally held the mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation must have been stronger, to explain a weak Atlantic meridional δ(13)C gradient and large northern high-latitude warming. However, climate models do not simulate such stronger Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, when forced with mid-Pliocene boundary conditions. Proxy reconstructions allow for an alternative scenario that the weak δ(13)C gradient can be explained by increased ventilation and reduced stratification in the Southern Ocean. Here this alternative scenario is supported by simulations with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM-L), which simulate an intensified and slightly poleward shifted wind field off Antarctica, giving enhanced ventilation and reduced stratification in the Southern Ocean. Our findings challenge the prevailing theory and show how increased Southern Ocean ventilation can reconcile existing model-data discrepancies about Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation while explaining fundamental ocean features.

Increased ventilation of Antarctic deep water during the warm mid-Pliocene

PubMed Central

Zhang, Zhongshi; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Ninnemann, Ulysses S.

2013-01-01

The mid-Pliocene warm period is a recent warm geological period that shares similarities with predictions of future climate. It is generally held the mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation must have been stronger, to explain a weak Atlantic meridional δ13C gradient and large northern high-latitude warming. However, climate models do not simulate such stronger Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, when forced with mid-Pliocene boundary conditions. Proxy reconstructions allow for an alternative scenario that the weak δ13C gradient can be explained by increased ventilation and reduced stratification in the Southern Ocean. Here this alternative scenario is supported by simulations with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM-L), which simulate an intensified and slightly poleward shifted wind field off Antarctica, giving enhanced ventilation and reduced stratification in the Southern Ocean. Our findings challenge the prevailing theory and show how increased Southern Ocean ventilation can reconcile existing model-data discrepancies about Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation while explaining fundamental ocean features. PMID:23422667

Evaluation of a new satellite-based precipitation dataset for climate studies in the Xiang River basin, Southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Q.; Xu, Y. P.; Hsu, K. L.

2017-12-01

A new satellite-based precipitation dataset, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) with long-term time series dating back to 1983 can be one valuable dataset for climate studies. This study investigates the feasibility of using PERSIANN-CDR as a reference dataset for climate studies. Sixteen CMIP5 models are evaluated over the Xiang River basin, southern China, by comparing their performance on precipitation projection and streamflow simulation, particularly on extreme precipitation and streamflow events. The results show PERSIANN-CDR is a valuable dataset for climate studies, even on extreme precipitation events. The precipitation estimates and their extreme events from CMIP5 models are improved significantly compared with rain gauge observations after bias-correction by the PERSIANN-CDR precipitation estimates. Given streamflows simulated with raw and bias-corrected precipitation estimates from 16 CMIP5 models, 10 out of 16 are improved after bias-correction. The impact of bias-correction on extreme events for streamflow simulations are unstable, with eight out of 16 models can be clearly claimed they are improved after the bias-correction. Concerning the performance of raw CMIP5 models on precipitation, IPSL-CM5A-MR excels the other CMIP5 models, while MRI-CGCM3 outperforms on extreme events with its better performance on six extreme precipitation metrics. Case studies also show that raw CCSM4, CESM1-CAM5, and MRI-CGCM3 outperform other models on streamflow simulation, while MIROC5-ESM-CHEM, MIROC5-ESM and IPSL-CM5A-MR behaves better than the other models after bias-correction.

Land-surface parameter optimisation using data assimilation techniques: the adJULES system V1.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raoult, Nina M.; Jupp, Tim E.; Cox, Peter M.; Luke, Catherine M.

2016-08-01

Land-surface models (LSMs) are crucial components of the Earth system models (ESMs) that are used to make coupled climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) is the land-surface model used in the climate and weather forecast models of the UK Met Office. JULES is also extensively used offline as a land-surface impacts tool, forced with climatologies into the future. In this study, JULES is automatically differentiated with respect to JULES parameters using commercial software from FastOpt, resulting in an analytical gradient, or adjoint, of the model. Using this adjoint, the adJULES parameter estimation system has been developed to search for locally optimum parameters by calibrating against observations. This paper describes adJULES in a data assimilation framework and demonstrates its ability to improve the model-data fit using eddy-covariance measurements of gross primary production (GPP) and latent heat (LE) fluxes. adJULES also has the ability to calibrate over multiple sites simultaneously. This feature is used to define new optimised parameter values for the five plant functional types (PFTs) in JULES. The optimised PFT-specific parameters improve the performance of JULES at over 85 % of the sites used in the study, at both the calibration and evaluation stages. The new improved parameters for JULES are presented along with the associated uncertainties for each parameter.

Chemical Mechanisms and Their Applications in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Earth System Model.

PubMed

Nielsen, J Eric; Pawson, Steven; Molod, Andrea; Auer, Benjamin; da Silva, Arlindo M; Douglass, Anne R; Duncan, Bryan; Liang, Qing; Manyin, Michael; Oman, Luke D; Putman, William; Strahan, Susan E; Wargan, Krzysztof

2017-12-01

NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Earth System Model (ESM) is a modular, general circulation model (GCM), and data assimilation system (DAS) that is used to simulate and study the coupled dynamics, physics, chemistry, and biology of our planet. GEOS is developed by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. It generates near-real-time analyzed data products, reanalyses, and weather and seasonal forecasts to support research targeted to understanding interactions among Earth System processes. For chemistry, our efforts are focused on ozone and its influence on the state of the atmosphere and oceans, and on trace gas data assimilation and global forecasting at mesoscale discretization. Several chemistry and aerosol modules are coupled to the GCM, which enables GEOS to address topics pertinent to NASA's Earth Science Mission. This paper describes the atmospheric chemistry components of GEOS and provides an overview of its Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF)-based software infrastructure, which promotes a rich spectrum of feedbacks that influence circulation and climate, and impact human and ecosystem health. We detail how GEOS allows model users to select chemical mechanisms and emission scenarios at run time, establish the extent to which the aerosol and chemical components communicate, and decide whether either or both influence the radiative transfer calculations. A variety of resolutions facilitates research on spatial and temporal scales relevant to problems ranging from hourly changes in air quality to trace gas trends in a changing climate. Samples of recent GEOS chemistry applications are provided.

Chemical Mechanisms and Their Applications in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Earth System Model

PubMed Central

Pawson, Steven; Molod, Andrea; Auer, Benjamin; da Silva, Arlindo M.; Douglass, Anne R.; Duncan, Bryan; Liang, Qing; Manyin, Michael; Oman, Luke D.; Putman, William; Strahan, Susan E.; Wargan, Krzysztof

2017-01-01

Abstract NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Earth System Model (ESM) is a modular, general circulation model (GCM), and data assimilation system (DAS) that is used to simulate and study the coupled dynamics, physics, chemistry, and biology of our planet. GEOS is developed by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. It generates near‐real‐time analyzed data products, reanalyses, and weather and seasonal forecasts to support research targeted to understanding interactions among Earth System processes. For chemistry, our efforts are focused on ozone and its influence on the state of the atmosphere and oceans, and on trace gas data assimilation and global forecasting at mesoscale discretization. Several chemistry and aerosol modules are coupled to the GCM, which enables GEOS to address topics pertinent to NASA's Earth Science Mission. This paper describes the atmospheric chemistry components of GEOS and provides an overview of its Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF)‐based software infrastructure, which promotes a rich spectrum of feedbacks that influence circulation and climate, and impact human and ecosystem health. We detail how GEOS allows model users to select chemical mechanisms and emission scenarios at run time, establish the extent to which the aerosol and chemical components communicate, and decide whether either or both influence the radiative transfer calculations. A variety of resolutions facilitates research on spatial and temporal scales relevant to problems ranging from hourly changes in air quality to trace gas trends in a changing climate. Samples of recent GEOS chemistry applications are provided. PMID:29497478

Real space mapping of Li-ion transport in amorphous Si anodes with nanometer resolution.

PubMed

Balke, Nina; Jesse, Stephen; Kim, Yoongu; Adamczyk, Leslie; Tselev, Alexander; Ivanov, Ilia N; Dudney, Nancy J; Kalinin, Sergei V

2010-09-08

The electrical bias driven Li-ion motion in silicon anode materials in thin film battery heterostructures is investigated using electrochemical strain microscopy (ESM), which is a newly developed scanning probe microscopy based characterization method. ESM utilizes the intrinsic link between bias-controlled Li-ion concentration and molar volume of electrode materials, providing the capability for studies on the sub-20 nm scale, and allows the relationship between Li-ion flow and microstructure to be established. The evolution of Li-ion transport during the battery charging is directly observed.