HiRel: Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated reliability tool system, (version 7.0). Volume 1: HARP introduction and user's guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, Salvatore J.; Rothmann, Elizabeth; Dugan, Joanne Bechta; Trivedi, Kishor S.; Mittal, Nitin; Boyd, Mark A.; Geist, Robert M.; Smotherman, Mark D.

1994-01-01

The Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated Reliability (HiRel) tool system for reliability/availability prediction offers a toolbox of integrated reliability/availability programs that can be used to customize the user's application in a workstation or nonworkstation environment. HiRel consists of interactive graphical input/output programs and four reliability/availability modeling engines that provide analytical and simulative solutions to a wide host of reliable fault-tolerant system architectures and is also applicable to electronic systems in general. The tool system was designed to be compatible with most computing platforms and operating systems, and some programs have been beta tested, within the aerospace community for over 8 years. Volume 1 provides an introduction to the HARP program. Comprehensive information on HARP mathematical models can be found in the references.

Modeling of unit operating considerations in generating-capacity reliability evaluation. Volume 1. Mathematical models, computing methods, and results. Final report. [GENESIS, OPCON and OPPLAN

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patton, A.D.; Ayoub, A.K.; Singh, C.

1982-07-01

Existing methods for generating capacity reliability evaluation do not explicitly recognize a number of operating considerations which may have important effects in system reliability performance. Thus, current methods may yield estimates of system reliability which differ appreciably from actual observed reliability. Further, current methods offer no means of accurately studying or evaluating alternatives which may differ in one or more operating considerations. Operating considerations which are considered to be important in generating capacity reliability evaluation include: unit duty cycles as influenced by load cycle shape, reliability performance of other units, unit commitment policy, and operating reserve policy; unit start-up failuresmore » distinct from unit running failures; unit start-up times; and unit outage postponability and the management of postponable outages. A detailed Monte Carlo simulation computer model called GENESIS and two analytical models called OPCON and OPPLAN have been developed which are capable of incorporating the effects of many operating considerations including those noted above. These computer models have been used to study a variety of actual and synthetic systems and are available from EPRI. The new models are shown to produce system reliability indices which differ appreciably from index values computed using traditional models which do not recognize operating considerations.« less

Models for evaluating the performability of degradable computing systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, L. T.

1982-01-01

Recent advances in multiprocessor technology established the need for unified methods to evaluate computing systems performance and reliability. In response to this modeling need, a general modeling framework that permits the modeling, analysis and evaluation of degradable computing systems is considered. Within this framework, several user oriented performance variables are identified and shown to be proper generalizations of the traditional notions of system performance and reliability. Furthermore, a time varying version of the model is developed to generalize the traditional fault tree reliability evaluation methods of phased missions.

Remotely piloted vehicle: Application of the GRASP analysis method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andre, W. L.; Morris, J. B.

1981-01-01

The application of General Reliability Analysis Simulation Program (GRASP) to the remotely piloted vehicle (RPV) system is discussed. The model simulates the field operation of the RPV system. By using individual component reliabilities, the overall reliability of the RPV system is determined. The results of the simulations are given in operational days. The model represented is only a basis from which more detailed work could progress. The RPV system in this model is based on preliminary specifications and estimated values. The use of GRASP from basic system definition, to model input, and to model verification is demonstrated.

On modeling human reliability in space flights - Redundancy and recovery operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aarset, M.; Wright, J. F.

The reliability of humans is of paramount importance to the safety of space flight systems. This paper describes why 'back-up' operators might not be the best solution, and in some cases, might even degrade system reliability. The problem associated with human redundancy calls for special treatment in reliability analyses. The concept of Standby Redundancy is adopted, and psychological and mathematical models are introduced to improve the way such problems can be estimated and handled. In the past, human reliability has practically been neglected in most reliability analyses, and, when included, the humans have been modeled as a component and treated numerically the way technical components are. This approach is not wrong in itself, but it may lead to systematic errors if too simple analogies from the technical domain are used in the modeling of human behavior. In this paper redundancy in a man-machine system will be addressed. It will be shown how simplification from the technical domain, when applied to human components of a system, may give non-conservative estimates of system reliability.

General Monte Carlo reliability simulation code including common mode failures and HARP fault/error-handling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Platt, M. E.; Lewis, E. E.; Boehm, F.

1991-01-01

A Monte Carlo Fortran computer program was developed that uses two variance reduction techniques for computing system reliability applicable to solving very large highly reliable fault-tolerant systems. The program is consistent with the hybrid automated reliability predictor (HARP) code which employs behavioral decomposition and complex fault-error handling models. This new capability is called MC-HARP which efficiently solves reliability models with non-constant failures rates (Weibull). Common mode failure modeling is also a specialty.

Validation and Improvement of Reliability Methods for Air Force Building Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

focusing primarily on HVAC systems . This research used contingency analysis to assess the performance of each model for HVAC systems at six Air Force...probabilistic model produced inflated reliability calculations for HVAC systems . In light of these findings, this research employed a stochastic method, a...Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP), in an attempt to produce accurate HVAC system reliability calculations. This effort ultimately concluded that

Key Reliability Drivers of Liquid Propulsion Engines and A Reliability Model for Sensitivity Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, Zhao-Feng; Fint, Jeffry A.; Kuck, Frederick M.

2005-01-01

This paper is to address the in-flight reliability of a liquid propulsion engine system for a launch vehicle. We first establish a comprehensive list of system and sub-system reliability drivers for any liquid propulsion engine system. We then build a reliability model to parametrically analyze the impact of some reliability parameters. We present sensitivity analysis results for a selected subset of the key reliability drivers using the model. Reliability drivers identified include: number of engines for the liquid propulsion stage, single engine total reliability, engine operation duration, engine thrust size, reusability, engine de-rating or up-rating, engine-out design (including engine-out switching reliability, catastrophic fraction, preventable failure fraction, unnecessary shutdown fraction), propellant specific hazards, engine start and cutoff transient hazards, engine combustion cycles, vehicle and engine interface and interaction hazards, engine health management system, engine modification, engine ground start hold down with launch commit criteria, engine altitude start (1 in. start), Multiple altitude restart (less than 1 restart), component, subsystem and system design, manufacturing/ground operation support/pre and post flight check outs and inspection, extensiveness of the development program. We present some sensitivity analysis results for the following subset of the drivers: number of engines for the propulsion stage, single engine total reliability, engine operation duration, engine de-rating or up-rating requirements, engine-out design, catastrophic fraction, preventable failure fraction, unnecessary shutdown fraction, and engine health management system implementation (basic redlines and more advanced health management systems).

Bayesian methods in reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

1991-11-01

The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

Advanced reliability modeling of fault-tolerant computer-based systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, S. J.

1982-01-01

Two methodologies for the reliability assessment of fault tolerant digital computer based systems are discussed. The computer-aided reliability estimation 3 (CARE 3) and gate logic software simulation (GLOSS) are assessment technologies that were developed to mitigate a serious weakness in the design and evaluation process of ultrareliable digital systems. The weak link is based on the unavailability of a sufficiently powerful modeling technique for comparing the stochastic attributes of one system against others. Some of the more interesting attributes are reliability, system survival, safety, and mission success.

Systems engineering principles for the design of biomedical signal processing systems.

PubMed

Faust, Oliver; Acharya U, Rajendra; Sputh, Bernhard H C; Min, Lim Choo

2011-06-01

Systems engineering aims to produce reliable systems which function according to specification. In this paper we follow a systems engineering approach to design a biomedical signal processing system. We discuss requirements capturing, specification definition, implementation and testing of a classification system. These steps are executed as formal as possible. The requirements, which motivate the system design, are based on diabetes research. The main requirement for the classification system is to be a reliable component of a machine which controls diabetes. Reliability is very important, because uncontrolled diabetes may lead to hyperglycaemia (raised blood sugar) and over a period of time may cause serious damage to many of the body systems, especially the nerves and blood vessels. In a second step, these requirements are refined into a formal CSP‖ B model. The formal model expresses the system functionality in a clear and semantically strong way. Subsequently, the proven system model was translated into an implementation. This implementation was tested with use cases and failure cases. Formal modeling and automated model checking gave us deep insight in the system functionality. This insight enabled us to create a reliable and trustworthy implementation. With extensive tests we established trust in the reliability of the implementation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

HiRel: Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated reliability tool system, (version 7.0). Volume 2: HARP tutorial

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rothmann, Elizabeth; Dugan, Joanne Bechta; Trivedi, Kishor S.; Mittal, Nitin; Bavuso, Salvatore J.

1994-01-01

The Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated Reliability (HiRel) tool system for reliability/availability prediction offers a toolbox of integrated reliability/availability programs that can be used to customize the user's application in a workstation or nonworkstation environment. The Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) tutorial provides insight into HARP modeling techniques and the interactive textual prompting input language via a step-by-step explanation and demonstration of HARP's fault occurrence/repair model and the fault/error handling models. Example applications are worked in their entirety and the HARP tabular output data are presented for each. Simple models are presented at first with each succeeding example demonstrating greater modeling power and complexity. This document is not intended to present the theoretical and mathematical basis for HARP.

Hybrid automated reliability predictor integrated work station (HiREL)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, Salvatore J.

1991-01-01

The Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated reliability (HiREL) workstation tool system marks another step toward the goal of producing a totally integrated computer aided design (CAD) workstation design capability. Since a reliability engineer must generally graphically represent a reliability model before he can solve it, the use of a graphical input description language increases productivity and decreases the incidence of error. The captured image displayed on a cathode ray tube (CRT) screen serves as a documented copy of the model and provides the data for automatic input to the HARP reliability model solver. The introduction of dependency gates to a fault tree notation allows the modeling of very large fault tolerant system models using a concise and visually recognizable and familiar graphical language. In addition to aiding in the validation of the reliability model, the concise graphical representation presents company management, regulatory agencies, and company customers a means of expressing a complex model that is readily understandable. The graphical postprocessor computer program HARPO (HARP Output) makes it possible for reliability engineers to quickly analyze huge amounts of reliability/availability data to observe trends due to exploratory design changes.

Sequential Testing of Hypotheses Concerning the Reliability of a System Modeled by a Two-Parameter Weibull Distribution.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-12-01

CONCERNING THE RELIABILITY OF A SYSTEM MODELED BY A TWO-PARAMETER WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION THESIS AFIT/GOR/MA/81D-8 Philippe A. Lussier 2nd Lt USAF... MODELED BY A TWO-PARAMETER WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION THESIS Presented to the Faculty of the School of Engineering of the Air Force Institute of Technology...repetitions are used for these test procedures. vi Sequential Testing of Hypotheses Concerning the Reliability of a System Modeled by a Two-Parameter

A reliability design method for a lithium-ion battery pack considering the thermal disequilibrium in electric vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Quan; Wang, Zili; Ren, Yi; Sun, Bo; Yang, Dezhen; Feng, Qiang

2018-05-01

With the rapid development of lithium-ion battery technology in the electric vehicle (EV) industry, the lifetime of the battery cell increases substantially; however, the reliability of the battery pack is still inadequate. Because of the complexity of the battery pack, a reliability design method for a lithium-ion battery pack considering the thermal disequilibrium is proposed in this paper based on cell redundancy. Based on this method, a three-dimensional electric-thermal-flow-coupled model, a stochastic degradation model of cells under field dynamic conditions and a multi-state system reliability model of a battery pack are established. The relationships between the multi-physics coupling model, the degradation model and the system reliability model are first constructed to analyze the reliability of the battery pack and followed by analysis examples with different redundancy strategies. By comparing the reliability of battery packs of different redundant cell numbers and configurations, several conclusions for the redundancy strategy are obtained. More notably, the reliability does not monotonically increase with the number of redundant cells for the thermal disequilibrium effects. In this work, the reliability of a 6 × 5 parallel-series configuration is the optimal system structure. In addition, the effect of the cell arrangement and cooling conditions are investigated.

Reliability of Fault Tolerant Control Systems. Part 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, N. Eva

2001-01-01

This paper reports Part I of a two part effort, that is intended to delineate the relationship between reliability and fault tolerant control in a quantitative manner. Reliability analysis of fault-tolerant control systems is performed using Markov models. Reliability properties, peculiar to fault-tolerant control systems are emphasized. As a consequence, coverage of failures through redundancy management can be severely limited. It is shown that in the early life of a syi1ein composed of highly reliable subsystems, the reliability of the overall system is affine with respect to coverage, and inadequate coverage induces dominant single point failures. The utility of some existing software tools for assessing the reliability of fault tolerant control systems is also discussed. Coverage modeling is attempted in Part II in a way that captures its dependence on the control performance and on the diagnostic resolution.

Evaluation Applied to Reliability Analysis of Reconfigurable, Highly Reliable, Fault-Tolerant, Computing Systems for Avionics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Migneault, G. E.

1979-01-01

Emulation techniques are proposed as a solution to a difficulty arising in the analysis of the reliability of highly reliable computer systems for future commercial aircraft. The difficulty, viz., the lack of credible precision in reliability estimates obtained by analytical modeling techniques are established. The difficulty is shown to be an unavoidable consequence of: (1) a high reliability requirement so demanding as to make system evaluation by use testing infeasible, (2) a complex system design technique, fault tolerance, (3) system reliability dominated by errors due to flaws in the system definition, and (4) elaborate analytical modeling techniques whose precision outputs are quite sensitive to errors of approximation in their input data. The technique of emulation is described, indicating how its input is a simple description of the logical structure of a system and its output is the consequent behavior. The use of emulation techniques is discussed for pseudo-testing systems to evaluate bounds on the parameter values needed for the analytical techniques.

Modeling reliability measurement of interface on information system: Towards the forensic of rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasution, M. K. M.; Sitompul, Darwin; Harahap, Marwan

2018-02-01

Today almost all machines depend on the software. As a software and hardware system depends also on the rules that are the procedures for its use. If the procedure or program can be reliably characterized by involving the concept of graph, logic, and probability, then regulatory strength can also be measured accordingly. Therefore, this paper initiates an enumeration model to measure the reliability of interfaces based on the case of information systems supported by the rules of use by the relevant agencies. An enumeration model is obtained based on software reliability calculation.

Reliability analysis in interdependent smart grid systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Hao; Kan, Zhe; Zhao, Dandan; Han, Jianmin; Lu, Jianfeng; Hu, Zhaolong

2018-06-01

Complex network theory is a useful way to study many real complex systems. In this paper, a reliability analysis model based on complex network theory is introduced in interdependent smart grid systems. In this paper, we focus on understanding the structure of smart grid systems and studying the underlying network model, their interactions, and relationships and how cascading failures occur in the interdependent smart grid systems. We propose a practical model for interdependent smart grid systems using complex theory. Besides, based on percolation theory, we also study the effect of cascading failures effect and reveal detailed mathematical analysis of failure propagation in such systems. We analyze the reliability of our proposed model caused by random attacks or failures by calculating the size of giant functioning components in interdependent smart grid systems. Our simulation results also show that there exists a threshold for the proportion of faulty nodes, beyond which the smart grid systems collapse. Also we determine the critical values for different system parameters. In this way, the reliability analysis model based on complex network theory can be effectively utilized for anti-attack and protection purposes in interdependent smart grid systems.

The art of fault-tolerant system reliability modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Ricky W.; Johnson, Sally C.

1990-01-01

A step-by-step tutorial of the methods and tools used for the reliability analysis of fault-tolerant systems is presented. Emphasis is on the representation of architectural features in mathematical models. Details of the mathematical solution of complex reliability models are not presented. Instead the use of several recently developed computer programs--SURE, ASSIST, STEM, PAWS--which automate the generation and solution of these models is described.

Proposed reliability cost model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delionback, L. M.

1973-01-01

The research investigations which were involved in the study include: cost analysis/allocation, reliability and product assurance, forecasting methodology, systems analysis, and model-building. This is a classic example of an interdisciplinary problem, since the model-building requirements include the need for understanding and communication between technical disciplines on one hand, and the financial/accounting skill categories on the other. The systems approach is utilized within this context to establish a clearer and more objective relationship between reliability assurance and the subcategories (or subelements) that provide, or reenforce, the reliability assurance for a system. Subcategories are further subdivided as illustrated by a tree diagram. The reliability assurance elements can be seen to be potential alternative strategies, or approaches, depending on the specific goals/objectives of the trade studies. The scope was limited to the establishment of a proposed reliability cost-model format. The model format/approach is dependent upon the use of a series of subsystem-oriented CER's and sometimes possible CTR's, in devising a suitable cost-effective policy.

A System for Integrated Reliability and Safety Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kostiuk, Peter; Shapiro, Gerald; Hanson, Dave; Kolitz, Stephan; Leong, Frank; Rosch, Gene; Coumeri, Marc; Scheidler, Peter, Jr.; Bonesteel, Charles

1999-01-01

We present an integrated reliability and aviation safety analysis tool. The reliability models for selected infrastructure components of the air traffic control system are described. The results of this model are used to evaluate the likelihood of seeing outcomes predicted by simulations with failures injected. We discuss the design of the simulation model, and the user interface to the integrated toolset.

Optimizing preventive maintenance policy: A data-driven application for a light rail braking system.

PubMed

Corman, Francesco; Kraijema, Sander; Godjevac, Milinko; Lodewijks, Gabriel

2017-10-01

This article presents a case study determining the optimal preventive maintenance policy for a light rail rolling stock system in terms of reliability, availability, and maintenance costs. The maintenance policy defines one of the three predefined preventive maintenance actions at fixed time-based intervals for each of the subsystems of the braking system. Based on work, maintenance, and failure data, we model the reliability degradation of the system and its subsystems under the current maintenance policy by a Weibull distribution. We then analytically determine the relation between reliability, availability, and maintenance costs. We validate the model against recorded reliability and availability and get further insights by a dedicated sensitivity analysis. The model is then used in a sequential optimization framework determining preventive maintenance intervals to improve on the key performance indicators. We show the potential of data-driven modelling to determine optimal maintenance policy: same system availability and reliability can be achieved with 30% maintenance cost reduction, by prolonging the intervals and re-grouping maintenance actions.

Optimizing preventive maintenance policy: A data-driven application for a light rail braking system

PubMed Central

Corman, Francesco; Kraijema, Sander; Godjevac, Milinko; Lodewijks, Gabriel

2017-01-01

This article presents a case study determining the optimal preventive maintenance policy for a light rail rolling stock system in terms of reliability, availability, and maintenance costs. The maintenance policy defines one of the three predefined preventive maintenance actions at fixed time-based intervals for each of the subsystems of the braking system. Based on work, maintenance, and failure data, we model the reliability degradation of the system and its subsystems under the current maintenance policy by a Weibull distribution. We then analytically determine the relation between reliability, availability, and maintenance costs. We validate the model against recorded reliability and availability and get further insights by a dedicated sensitivity analysis. The model is then used in a sequential optimization framework determining preventive maintenance intervals to improve on the key performance indicators. We show the potential of data-driven modelling to determine optimal maintenance policy: same system availability and reliability can be achieved with 30% maintenance cost reduction, by prolonging the intervals and re-grouping maintenance actions. PMID:29278245

Reliability Modeling of Double Beam Bridge Crane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Zhu; Tong, Yifei; Luan, Jiahui; Xiangdong, Li

2018-05-01

This paper briefly described the structure of double beam bridge crane and the basic parameters of double beam bridge crane are defined. According to the structure and system division of double beam bridge crane, the reliability architecture of double beam bridge crane system is proposed, and the reliability mathematical model is constructed.

HiRel: Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated reliability tool system, (version 7.0). Volume 3: HARP Graphics Oriented (GO) input user's guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, Salvatore J.; Rothmann, Elizabeth; Mittal, Nitin; Koppen, Sandra Howell

1994-01-01

The Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated Reliability (HiRel) tool system for reliability/availability prediction offers a toolbox of integrated reliability/availability programs that can be used to customize the user's application in a workstation or nonworkstation environment. HiRel consists of interactive graphical input/output programs and four reliability/availability modeling engines that provide analytical and simulative solutions to a wide host of highly reliable fault-tolerant system architectures and is also applicable to electronic systems in general. The tool system was designed at the outset to be compatible with most computing platforms and operating systems, and some programs have been beta tested within the aerospace community for over 8 years. This document is a user's guide for the HiRel graphical preprocessor Graphics Oriented (GO) program. GO is a graphical user interface for the HARP engine that enables the drawing of reliability/availability models on a monitor. A mouse is used to select fault tree gates or Markov graphical symbols from a menu for drawing.

Mathematical modeling and fuzzy availability analysis for serial processes in the crystallization system of a sugar plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aggarwal, Anil Kr.; Kumar, Sanjeev; Singh, Vikram

2017-03-01

The binary states, i.e., success or failed state assumptions used in conventional reliability are inappropriate for reliability analysis of complex industrial systems due to lack of sufficient probabilistic information. For large complex systems, the uncertainty of each individual parameter enhances the uncertainty of the system reliability. In this paper, the concept of fuzzy reliability has been used for reliability analysis of the system, and the effect of coverage factor, failure and repair rates of subsystems on fuzzy availability for fault-tolerant crystallization system of sugar plant is analyzed. Mathematical modeling of the system is carried out using the mnemonic rule to derive Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equations. These governing differential equations are solved with Runge-Kutta fourth-order method.

HiRel - Reliability/availability integrated workstation tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, Salvatore J.; Dugan, Joanne B.

1992-01-01

The HiRel software tool is described and demonstrated by application to the mission avionics subsystem of the Advanced System Integration Demonstrations (ASID) system that utilizes the PAVE PILLAR approach. HiRel marks another accomplishment toward the goal of producing a totally integrated computer-aided design (CAD) workstation design capability. Since a reliability engineer generally represents a reliability model graphically before it can be solved, the use of a graphical input description language increases productivity and decreases the incidence of error. The graphical postprocessor module HARPO makes it possible for reliability engineers to quickly analyze huge amounts of reliability/availability data to observe trends due to exploratory design changes. The addition of several powerful HARP modeling engines provides the user with a reliability/availability modeling capability for a wide range of system applications all integrated under a common interactive graphical input-output capability.

On the next generation of reliability analysis tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Babcock, Philip S., IV; Leong, Frank; Gai, Eli

1987-01-01

The current generation of reliability analysis tools concentrates on improving the efficiency of the description and solution of the fault-handling processes and providing a solution algorithm for the full system model. The tools have improved user efficiency in these areas to the extent that the problem of constructing the fault-occurrence model is now the major analysis bottleneck. For the next generation of reliability tools, it is proposed that techniques be developed to improve the efficiency of the fault-occurrence model generation and input. Further, the goal is to provide an environment permitting a user to provide a top-down design description of the system from which a Markov reliability model is automatically constructed. Thus, the user is relieved of the tedious and error-prone process of model construction, permitting an efficient exploration of the design space, and an independent validation of the system's operation is obtained. An additional benefit of automating the model construction process is the opportunity to reduce the specialized knowledge required. Hence, the user need only be an expert in the system he is analyzing; the expertise in reliability analysis techniques is supplied.

Upper and lower bounds for semi-Markov reliability models of reconfigurable systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, A. L.

1984-01-01

This paper determines the information required about system recovery to compute the reliability of a class of reconfigurable systems. Upper and lower bounds are derived for these systems. The class consists of those systems that satisfy five assumptions: the components fail independently at a low constant rate, fault occurrence and system reconfiguration are independent processes, the reliability model is semi-Markov, the recovery functions which describe system configuration have small means and variances, and the system is well designed. The bounds are easy to compute, and examples are included.

Evaluation methodologies for an advanced information processing system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schabowsky, R. S., Jr.; Gai, E.; Walker, B. K.; Lala, J. H.; Motyka, P.

1984-01-01

The system concept and requirements for an Advanced Information Processing System (AIPS) are briefly described, but the emphasis of this paper is on the evaluation methodologies being developed and utilized in the AIPS program. The evaluation tasks include hardware reliability, maintainability and availability, software reliability, performance, and performability. Hardware RMA and software reliability are addressed with Markov modeling techniques. The performance analysis for AIPS is based on queueing theory. Performability is a measure of merit which combines system reliability and performance measures. The probability laws of the performance measures are obtained from the Markov reliability models. Scalar functions of this law such as the mean and variance provide measures of merit in the AIPS performability evaluations.

Examples of Nonconservatism in the CARE 3 Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dotson, Kelly J.

1988-01-01

This paper presents parameter regions in the CARE 3 (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation version 3) computer program where the program overestimates the reliability of a modeled system without warning the user. Five simple models of fault-tolerant computer systems are analyzed; and, the parameter regions where reliability is overestimated are given. The source of the error in the reliability estimates for models which incorporate transient fault occurrences was not readily apparent. However, the source of much of the error for models with permanent and intermittent faults can be attributed to the choice of values for the run-time parameters of the program.

Emulation applied to reliability analysis of reconfigurable, highly reliable, fault-tolerant computing systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Migneault, G. E.

1979-01-01

Emulation techniques applied to the analysis of the reliability of highly reliable computer systems for future commercial aircraft are described. The lack of credible precision in reliability estimates obtained by analytical modeling techniques is first established. The difficulty is shown to be an unavoidable consequence of: (1) a high reliability requirement so demanding as to make system evaluation by use testing infeasible; (2) a complex system design technique, fault tolerance; (3) system reliability dominated by errors due to flaws in the system definition; and (4) elaborate analytical modeling techniques whose precision outputs are quite sensitive to errors of approximation in their input data. Next, the technique of emulation is described, indicating how its input is a simple description of the logical structure of a system and its output is the consequent behavior. Use of emulation techniques is discussed for pseudo-testing systems to evaluate bounds on the parameter values needed for the analytical techniques. Finally an illustrative example is presented to demonstrate from actual use the promise of the proposed application of emulation.

Model reduction by trimming for a class of semi-Markov reliability models and the corresponding error bound

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Allan L.; Palumbo, Daniel L.

1991-01-01

Semi-Markov processes have proved to be an effective and convenient tool to construct models of systems that achieve reliability by redundancy and reconfiguration. These models are able to depict complex system architectures and to capture the dynamics of fault arrival and system recovery. A disadvantage of this approach is that the models can be extremely large, which poses both a model and a computational problem. Techniques are needed to reduce the model size. Because these systems are used in critical applications where failure can be expensive, there must be an analytically derived bound for the error produced by the model reduction technique. A model reduction technique called trimming is presented that can be applied to a popular class of systems. Automatic model generation programs were written to help the reliability analyst produce models of complex systems. This method, trimming, is easy to implement and the error bound easy to compute. Hence, the method lends itself to inclusion in an automatic model generator.

HiRel: Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated reliability tool system, (version 7.0). Volume 4: HARP Output (HARPO) graphics display user's guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sproles, Darrell W.; Bavuso, Salvatore J.

1994-01-01

The Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated Reliability (HiRel) tool system for reliability/availability prediction offers a toolbox of integrated reliability/availability programs that can be used to customize the user's application in a workstation or nonworkstation environment. HiRel consists of interactive graphical input/output programs and four reliability/availability modeling engines that provide analytical and simulative solutions to a wide host of highly reliable fault-tolerant system architectures and is also applicable to electronic systems in general. The tool system was designed at the outset to be compatible with most computing platforms and operating systems and some programs have been beta tested within the aerospace community for over 8 years. This document is a user's guide for the HiRel graphical postprocessor program HARPO (HARP Output). HARPO reads ASCII files generated by HARP. It provides an interactive plotting capability that can be used to display alternate model data for trade-off analyses. File data can also be imported to other commercial software programs.

Modeling and Simulation Reliable Spacecraft On-Board Computing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Park, Nohpill

1999-01-01

The proposed project will investigate modeling and simulation-driven testing and fault tolerance schemes for Spacecraft On-Board Computing, thereby achieving reliable spacecraft telecommunication. A spacecraft communication system has inherent capabilities of providing multipoint and broadcast transmission, connectivity between any two distant nodes within a wide-area coverage, quick network configuration /reconfiguration, rapid allocation of space segment capacity, and distance-insensitive cost. To realize the capabilities above mentioned, both the size and cost of the ground-station terminals have to be reduced by using reliable, high-throughput, fast and cost-effective on-board computing system which has been known to be a critical contributor to the overall performance of space mission deployment. Controlled vulnerability of mission data (measured in sensitivity), improved performance (measured in throughput and delay) and fault tolerance (measured in reliability) are some of the most important features of these systems. The system should be thoroughly tested and diagnosed before employing a fault tolerance into the system. Testing and fault tolerance strategies should be driven by accurate performance models (i.e. throughput, delay, reliability and sensitivity) to find an optimal solution in terms of reliability and cost. The modeling and simulation tools will be integrated with a system architecture module, a testing module and a module for fault tolerance all of which interacting through a centered graphical user interface.

Software Reliability 2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallace, Dolores R.

2003-01-01

In FY01 we learned that hardware reliability models need substantial changes to account for differences in software, thus making software reliability measurements more effective, accurate, and easier to apply. These reliability models are generally based on familiar distributions or parametric methods. An obvious question is 'What new statistical and probability models can be developed using non-parametric and distribution-free methods instead of the traditional parametric method?" Two approaches to software reliability engineering appear somewhat promising. The first study, begin in FY01, is based in hardware reliability, a very well established science that has many aspects that can be applied to software. This research effort has investigated mathematical aspects of hardware reliability and has identified those applicable to software. Currently the research effort is applying and testing these approaches to software reliability measurement, These parametric models require much project data that may be difficult to apply and interpret. Projects at GSFC are often complex in both technology and schedules. Assessing and estimating reliability of the final system is extremely difficult when various subsystems are tested and completed long before others. Parametric and distribution free techniques may offer a new and accurate way of modeling failure time and other project data to provide earlier and more accurate estimates of system reliability.

System reliability approaches for advanced propulsion system structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cruse, T. A.; Mahadevan, S.

1991-01-01

This paper identifies significant issues that pertain to the estimation and use of system reliability in the design of advanced propulsion system structures. Linkages between the reliabilities of individual components and their effect on system design issues such as performance, cost, availability, and certification are examined. The need for system reliability computation to address the continuum nature of propulsion system structures and synergistic progressive damage modes has been highlighted. Available system reliability models are observed to apply only to discrete systems. Therefore a sequential structural reanalysis procedure is formulated to rigorously compute the conditional dependencies between various failure modes. The method is developed in a manner that supports both top-down and bottom-up analyses in system reliability.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Puskar, Joseph David; Quintana, Michael A.; Sorensen, Neil Robert

A program is underway at Sandia National Laboratories to predict long-term reliability of photovoltaic (PV) systems. The vehicle for the reliability predictions is a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD), which models system behavior. Because this model is based mainly on field failure and repair times, it can be used to predict current reliability, but it cannot currently be used to accurately predict lifetime. In order to be truly predictive, physics-informed degradation processes and failure mechanisms need to be included in the model. This paper describes accelerated life testing of metal foil tapes used in thin-film PV modules, and how tape jointmore » degradation, a possible failure mode, can be incorporated into the model.« less

The application of emulation techniques in the analysis of highly reliable, guidance and control computer systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Migneault, Gerard E.

1987-01-01

Emulation techniques can be a solution to a difficulty that arises in the analysis of the reliability of guidance and control computer systems for future commercial aircraft. Described here is the difficulty, the lack of credibility of reliability estimates obtained by analytical modeling techniques. The difficulty is an unavoidable consequence of the following: (1) a reliability requirement so demanding as to make system evaluation by use testing infeasible; (2) a complex system design technique, fault tolerance; (3) system reliability dominated by errors due to flaws in the system definition; and (4) elaborate analytical modeling techniques whose precision outputs are quite sensitive to errors of approximation in their input data. Use of emulation techniques for pseudo-testing systems to evaluate bounds on the parameter values needed for the analytical techniques is then discussed. Finally several examples of the application of emulation techniques are described.

Reliability model derivation of a fault-tolerant, dual, spare-switching, digital computer system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

A computer based reliability projection aid, tailored specifically for application in the design of fault-tolerant computer systems, is described. Its more pronounced characteristics include the facility for modeling systems with two distinct operational modes, measuring the effect of both permanent and transient faults, and calculating conditional system coverage factors. The underlying conceptual principles, mathematical models, and computer program implementation are presented.

Reliability Analysis of the Electrical Control System of Subsea Blowout Preventers Using Markov Models

PubMed Central

Liu, Zengkai; Liu, Yonghong; Cai, Baoping

2014-01-01

Reliability analysis of the electrical control system of a subsea blowout preventer (BOP) stack is carried out based on Markov method. For the subsea BOP electrical control system used in the current work, the 3-2-1-0 and 3-2-0 input voting schemes are available. The effects of the voting schemes on system performance are evaluated based on Markov models. In addition, the effects of failure rates of the modules and repair time on system reliability indices are also investigated. PMID:25409010

Cost-effective solutions to maintaining smart grid reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Qiu

As the aging power systems are increasingly working closer to the capacity and thermal limits, maintaining an sufficient reliability has been of great concern to the government agency, utility companies and users. This dissertation focuses on improving the reliability of transmission and distribution systems. Based on the wide area measurements, multiple model algorithms are developed to diagnose transmission line three-phase short to ground faults in the presence of protection misoperations. The multiple model algorithms utilize the electric network dynamics to provide prompt and reliable diagnosis outcomes. Computational complexity of the diagnosis algorithm is reduced by using a two-step heuristic. The multiple model algorithm is incorporated into a hybrid simulation framework, which consist of both continuous state simulation and discrete event simulation, to study the operation of transmission systems. With hybrid simulation, line switching strategy for enhancing the tolerance to protection misoperations is studied based on the concept of security index, which involves the faulted mode probability and stability coverage. Local measurements are used to track the generator state and faulty mode probabilities are calculated in the multiple model algorithms. FACTS devices are considered as controllers for the transmission system. The placement of FACTS devices into power systems is investigated with a criterion of maintaining a prescribed level of control reconfigurability. Control reconfigurability measures the small signal combined controllability and observability of a power system with an additional requirement on fault tolerance. For the distribution systems, a hierarchical framework, including a high level recloser allocation scheme and a low level recloser placement scheme, is presented. The impacts of recloser placement on the reliability indices is analyzed. Evaluation of reliability indices in the placement process is carried out via discrete event simulation. The reliability requirements are described with probabilities and evaluated from the empirical distributions of reliability indices.

Reliability Estimation of Aero-engine Based on Mixed Weibull Distribution Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Zhongda; Deng, Junxiang; Wang, Dawei

2018-02-01

Aero-engine is a complex mechanical electronic system, based on analysis of reliability of mechanical electronic system, Weibull distribution model has an irreplaceable role. Till now, only two-parameter Weibull distribution model and three-parameter Weibull distribution are widely used. Due to diversity of engine failure modes, there is a big error with single Weibull distribution model. By contrast, a variety of engine failure modes can be taken into account with mixed Weibull distribution model, so it is a good statistical analysis model. Except the concept of dynamic weight coefficient, in order to make reliability estimation result more accurately, three-parameter correlation coefficient optimization method is applied to enhance Weibull distribution model, thus precision of mixed distribution reliability model is improved greatly. All of these are advantageous to popularize Weibull distribution model in engineering applications.

Optimization of life support systems and their systems reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fan, L. T.; Hwang, C. L.; Erickson, L. E.

1971-01-01

The identification, analysis, and optimization of life support systems and subsystems have been investigated. For each system or subsystem that has been considered, the procedure involves the establishment of a set of system equations (or mathematical model) based on theory and experimental evidences; the analysis and simulation of the model; the optimization of the operation, control, and reliability; analysis of sensitivity of the system based on the model; and, if possible, experimental verification of the theoretical and computational results. Research activities include: (1) modeling of air flow in a confined space; (2) review of several different gas-liquid contactors utilizing centrifugal force: (3) review of carbon dioxide reduction contactors in space vehicles and other enclosed structures: (4) application of modern optimal control theory to environmental control of confined spaces; (5) optimal control of class of nonlinear diffusional distributed parameter systems: (6) optimization of system reliability of life support systems and sub-systems: (7) modeling, simulation and optimal control of the human thermal system: and (8) analysis and optimization of the water-vapor eletrolysis cell.

Preliminary Analysis of LORAN-C System Reliability for Civil Aviation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-09-01

overviev of the analysis technique. Section 3 describes the computerized LORAN-C coverage model which is used extensively in the reliability analysis...Xth Plenary Assembly, Geneva, 1963, published by International Telecomunications Union. S. Braff, R., Computer program to calculate a Karkov Chain Reliability Model, unpublished york, MITRE Corporation. A-1 I.° , 44J Ili *Y 0E 00 ...F i8 1110 Prelim inary Analysis of Program Engineering & LORAN’C System ReliabilityMaintenance Service i ~Washington. D.C.

Integration of tools for the Design and Assessment of High-Performance, Highly Reliable Computing Systems (DAHPHRS), phase 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scheper, C.; Baker, R.; Frank, G.; Yalamanchili, S.; Gray, G.

1992-01-01

Systems for Space Defense Initiative (SDI) space applications typically require both high performance and very high reliability. These requirements present the systems engineer evaluating such systems with the extremely difficult problem of conducting performance and reliability trade-offs over large design spaces. A controlled development process supported by appropriate automated tools must be used to assure that the system will meet design objectives. This report describes an investigation of methods, tools, and techniques necessary to support performance and reliability modeling for SDI systems development. Models of the JPL Hypercubes, the Encore Multimax, and the C.S. Draper Lab Fault-Tolerant Parallel Processor (FTPP) parallel-computing architectures using candidate SDI weapons-to-target assignment algorithms as workloads were built and analyzed as a means of identifying the necessary system models, how the models interact, and what experiments and analyses should be performed. As a result of this effort, weaknesses in the existing methods and tools were revealed and capabilities that will be required for both individual tools and an integrated toolset were identified.

Techniques for modeling the reliability of fault-tolerant systems with the Markov state-space approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Ricky W.; Johnson, Sally C.

1995-01-01

This paper presents a step-by-step tutorial of the methods and the tools that were used for the reliability analysis of fault-tolerant systems. The approach used in this paper is the Markov (or semi-Markov) state-space method. The paper is intended for design engineers with a basic understanding of computer architecture and fault tolerance, but little knowledge of reliability modeling. The representation of architectural features in mathematical models is emphasized. This paper does not present details of the mathematical solution of complex reliability models. Instead, it describes the use of several recently developed computer programs SURE, ASSIST, STEM, and PAWS that automate the generation and the solution of these models.

Advanced techniques in reliability model representation and solution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palumbo, Daniel L.; Nicol, David M.

1992-01-01

The current tendency of flight control system designs is towards increased integration of applications and increased distribution of computational elements. The reliability analysis of such systems is difficult because subsystem interactions are increasingly interdependent. Researchers at NASA Langley Research Center have been working for several years to extend the capability of Markov modeling techniques to address these problems. This effort has been focused in the areas of increased model abstraction and increased computational capability. The reliability model generator (RMG) is a software tool that uses as input a graphical object-oriented block diagram of the system. RMG uses a failure-effects algorithm to produce the reliability model from the graphical description. The ASSURE software tool is a parallel processing program that uses the semi-Markov unreliability range evaluator (SURE) solution technique and the abstract semi-Markov specification interface to the SURE tool (ASSIST) modeling language. A failure modes-effects simulation is used by ASSURE. These tools were used to analyze a significant portion of a complex flight control system. The successful combination of the power of graphical representation, automated model generation, and parallel computation leads to the conclusion that distributed fault-tolerant system architectures can now be analyzed.

Real-Time Reliability Verification for UAV Flight Control System Supporting Airworthiness Certification.

PubMed

Xu, Haiyang; Wang, Ping

2016-01-01

In order to verify the real-time reliability of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) flight control system and comply with the airworthiness certification standard, we proposed a model-based integration framework for modeling and verification of time property. Combining with the advantages of MARTE, this framework uses class diagram to create the static model of software system, and utilizes state chart to create the dynamic model. In term of the defined transformation rules, the MARTE model could be transformed to formal integrated model, and the different part of the model could also be verified by using existing formal tools. For the real-time specifications of software system, we also proposed a generating algorithm for temporal logic formula, which could automatically extract real-time property from time-sensitive live sequence chart (TLSC). Finally, we modeled the simplified flight control system of UAV to check its real-time property. The results showed that the framework could be used to create the system model, as well as precisely analyze and verify the real-time reliability of UAV flight control system.

Real-Time Reliability Verification for UAV Flight Control System Supporting Airworthiness Certification

PubMed Central

Xu, Haiyang; Wang, Ping

2016-01-01

In order to verify the real-time reliability of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) flight control system and comply with the airworthiness certification standard, we proposed a model-based integration framework for modeling and verification of time property. Combining with the advantages of MARTE, this framework uses class diagram to create the static model of software system, and utilizes state chart to create the dynamic model. In term of the defined transformation rules, the MARTE model could be transformed to formal integrated model, and the different part of the model could also be verified by using existing formal tools. For the real-time specifications of software system, we also proposed a generating algorithm for temporal logic formula, which could automatically extract real-time property from time-sensitive live sequence chart (TLSC). Finally, we modeled the simplified flight control system of UAV to check its real-time property. The results showed that the framework could be used to create the system model, as well as precisely analyze and verify the real-time reliability of UAV flight control system. PMID:27918594

Software reliability studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Larry W.

1989-01-01

The longterm goal of this research is to identify or create a model for use in analyzing the reliability of flight control software. The immediate tasks addressed are the creation of data useful to the study of software reliability and production of results pertinent to software reliability through the analysis of existing reliability models and data. The completed data creation portion of this research consists of a Generic Checkout System (GCS) design document created in cooperation with NASA and Research Triangle Institute (RTI) experimenters. This will lead to design and code reviews with the resulting product being one of the versions used in the Terminal Descent Experiment being conducted by the Systems Validations Methods Branch (SVMB) of NASA/Langley. An appended paper details an investigation of the Jelinski-Moranda and Geometric models for software reliability. The models were given data from a process that they have correctly simulated and asked to make predictions about the reliability of that process. It was found that either model will usually fail to make good predictions. These problems were attributed to randomness in the data and replication of data was recommended.

Design of an integrated airframe/propulsion control system architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, Gerald C.; Lee, C. William; Strickland, Michael J.

1990-01-01

The design of an integrated airframe/propulsion control system architecture is described. The design is based on a prevalidation methodology that used both reliability and performance tools. An account is given of the motivation for the final design and problems associated with both reliability and performance modeling. The appendices contain a listing of the code for both the reliability and performance model used in the design.

An approach to solving large reliability models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyd, Mark A.; Veeraraghavan, Malathi; Dugan, Joanne Bechta; Trivedi, Kishor S.

1988-01-01

This paper describes a unified approach to the problem of solving large realistic reliability models. The methodology integrates behavioral decomposition, state trunction, and efficient sparse matrix-based numerical methods. The use of fault trees, together with ancillary information regarding dependencies to automatically generate the underlying Markov model state space is proposed. The effectiveness of this approach is illustrated by modeling a state-of-the-art flight control system and a multiprocessor system. Nonexponential distributions for times to failure of components are assumed in the latter example. The modeling tool used for most of this analysis is HARP (the Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor).

Reliable gain-scheduled control of discrete-time systems and its application to CSTR model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakthivel, R.; Selvi, S.; Mathiyalagan, K.; Shi, Y.

2016-10-01

This paper is focused on reliable gain-scheduled controller design for a class of discrete-time systems with randomly occurring nonlinearities and actuator fault. Further, the nonlinearity in the system model is assumed to occur randomly according to a Bernoulli distribution with measurable time-varying probability in real time. The main purpose of this paper is to design a gain-scheduled controller by implementing a probability-dependent Lyapunov function and linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach such that the closed-loop discrete-time system is stochastically stable for all admissible randomly occurring nonlinearities. The existence conditions for the reliable controller is formulated in terms of LMI constraints. Finally, the proposed reliable gain-scheduled control scheme is applied on continuously stirred tank reactor model to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed design technique.

Reliability evaluation of microgrid considering incentive-based demand response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ting-Cheng; Zhang, Yong-Jun

2017-07-01

Incentive-based demand response (IBDR) can guide customers to adjust their behaviour of electricity and curtail load actively. Meanwhile, distributed generation (DG) and energy storage system (ESS) can provide time for the implementation of IBDR. The paper focus on the reliability evaluation of microgrid considering IBDR. Firstly, the mechanism of IBDR and its impact on power supply reliability are analysed. Secondly, the IBDR dispatch model considering customer’s comprehensive assessment and the customer response model are developed. Thirdly, the reliability evaluation method considering IBDR based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed. Finally, the validity of the above models and method is studied through numerical tests on modified RBTS Bus6 test system. Simulation results demonstrated that IBDR can improve the reliability of microgrid.

System Statement of Tasks of Calculating and Providing the Reliability of Heating Cogeneration Plants in Power Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biryuk, V. V.; Tsapkova, A. B.; Larin, E. A.; Livshiz, M. Y.; Sheludko, L. P.

2018-01-01

A set of mathematical models for calculating the reliability indexes of structurally complex multifunctional combined installations in heat and power supply systems was developed. Reliability of energy supply is considered as required condition for the creation and operation of heat and power supply systems. The optimal value of the power supply system coefficient F is based on an economic assessment of the consumers’ loss caused by the under-supply of electric power and additional system expences for the creation and operation of an emergency capacity reserve. Rationing of RI of the industrial heat supply is based on the use of concept of technological margin of safety of technological processes. The definition of rationed RI values of heat supply of communal consumers is based on the air temperature level iside the heated premises. The complex allows solving a number of practical tasks for providing reliability of heat supply for consumers. A probabilistic model is developed for calculating the reliability indexes of combined multipurpose heat and power plants in heat-and-power supply systems. The complex of models and calculation programs can be used to solve a wide range of specific tasks of optimization of schemes and parameters of combined heat and power plants and systems, as well as determining the efficiency of various redundance methods to ensure specified reliability of power supply.

Reliability Evaluation of Machine Center Components Based on Cascading Failure Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ying-Zhi; Liu, Jin-Tong; Shen, Gui-Xiang; Long, Zhe; Sun, Shu-Guang

2017-07-01

In order to rectify the problems that the component reliability model exhibits deviation, and the evaluation result is low due to the overlook of failure propagation in traditional reliability evaluation of machine center components, a new reliability evaluation method based on cascading failure analysis and the failure influenced degree assessment is proposed. A direct graph model of cascading failure among components is established according to cascading failure mechanism analysis and graph theory. The failure influenced degrees of the system components are assessed by the adjacency matrix and its transposition, combined with the Pagerank algorithm. Based on the comprehensive failure probability function and total probability formula, the inherent failure probability function is determined to realize the reliability evaluation of the system components. Finally, the method is applied to a machine center, it shows the following: 1) The reliability evaluation values of the proposed method are at least 2.5% higher than those of the traditional method; 2) The difference between the comprehensive and inherent reliability of the system component presents a positive correlation with the failure influenced degree of the system component, which provides a theoretical basis for reliability allocation of machine center system.

Graphical workstation capability for reliability modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, Salvatore J.; Koppen, Sandra V.; Haley, Pamela J.

1992-01-01

In addition to computational capabilities, software tools for estimating the reliability of fault-tolerant digital computer systems must also provide a means of interfacing with the user. Described here is the new graphical interface capability of the hybrid automated reliability predictor (HARP), a software package that implements advanced reliability modeling techniques. The graphics oriented (GO) module provides the user with a graphical language for modeling system failure modes through the selection of various fault-tree gates, including sequence-dependency gates, or by a Markov chain. By using this graphical input language, a fault tree becomes a convenient notation for describing a system. In accounting for any sequence dependencies, HARP converts the fault-tree notation to a complex stochastic process that is reduced to a Markov chain, which it can then solve for system reliability. The graphics capability is available for use on an IBM-compatible PC, a Sun, and a VAX workstation. The GO module is written in the C programming language and uses the graphical kernal system (GKS) standard for graphics implementation. The PC, VAX, and Sun versions of the HARP GO module are currently in beta-testing stages.

Reliability analysis and initial requirements for FC systems and stacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Åström, K.; Fontell, E.; Virtanen, S.

In the year 2000 Wärtsilä Corporation started an R&D program to develop SOFC systems for CHP applications. The program aims to bring to the market highly efficient, clean and cost competitive fuel cell systems with rated power output in the range of 50-250 kW for distributed generation and marine applications. In the program Wärtsilä focuses on system integration and development. System reliability and availability are key issues determining the competitiveness of the SOFC technology. In Wärtsilä, methods have been implemented for analysing the system in respect to reliability and safety as well as for defining reliability requirements for system components. A fault tree representation is used as the basis for reliability prediction analysis. A dynamic simulation technique has been developed to allow for non-static properties in the fault tree logic modelling. Special emphasis has been placed on reliability analysis of the fuel cell stacks in the system. A method for assessing reliability and critical failure predictability requirements for fuel cell stacks in a system consisting of several stacks has been developed. The method is based on a qualitative model of the stack configuration where each stack can be in a functional, partially failed or critically failed state, each of the states having different failure rates and effects on the system behaviour. The main purpose of the method is to understand the effect of stack reliability, critical failure predictability and operating strategy on the system reliability and availability. An example configuration, consisting of 5 × 5 stacks (series of 5 sets of 5 parallel stacks) is analysed in respect to stack reliability requirements as a function of predictability of critical failures and Weibull shape factor of failure rate distributions.

Competing risk models in reliability systems, a weibull distribution model with bayesian analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iskandar, Ismed; Satria Gondokaryono, Yudi

2016-02-01

In reliability theory, the most important problem is to determine the reliability of a complex system from the reliability of its components. The weakness of most reliability theories is that the systems are described and explained as simply functioning or failed. In many real situations, the failures may be from many causes depending upon the age and the environment of the system and its components. Another problem in reliability theory is one of estimating the parameters of the assumed failure models. The estimation may be based on data collected over censored or uncensored life tests. In many reliability problems, the failure data are simply quantitatively inadequate, especially in engineering design and maintenance system. The Bayesian analyses are more beneficial than the classical one in such cases. The Bayesian estimation analyses allow us to combine past knowledge or experience in the form of an apriori distribution with life test data to make inferences of the parameter of interest. In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Bayesian estimation analyses to competing risk systems. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure by using the Weibull distribution as our model. A simulation is conducted for this distribution with the objectives of verifying the models and the estimators and investigating the performance of the estimators for varying sample size. The simulation data are analyzed by using Bayesian and the maximum likelihood analyses. The simulation results show that the change of the true of parameter relatively to another will change the value of standard deviation in an opposite direction. For a perfect information on the prior distribution, the estimation methods of the Bayesian analyses are better than those of the maximum likelihood. The sensitivity analyses show some amount of sensitivity over the shifts of the prior locations. They also show the robustness of the Bayesian analysis within the range between the true value and the maximum likelihood estimated value lines.

Care 3 phase 2 report, maintenance manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bryant, L. A.; Stiffler, J. J.

1982-01-01

CARE 3 (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation, version three) is a computer program designed to help estimate the reliability of complex, redundant systems. Although the program can model a wide variety of redundant structures, it was developed specifically for fault-tolerant avionics systems--systems distinguished by the need for extremely reliable performance since a system failure could well result in the loss of human life. It substantially generalizes the class of redundant configurations that could be accommodated, and includes a coverage model to determine the various coverage probabilities as a function of the applicable fault recovery mechanisms (detection delay, diagnostic scheduling interval, isolation and recovery delay, etc.). CARE 3 further generalizes the class of system structures that can be modeled and greatly expands the coverage model to take into account such effects as intermittent and transient faults, latent faults, error propagation, etc.

Comprehensive Design Reliability Activities for Aerospace Propulsion Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christenson, R. L.; Whitley, M. R.; Knight, K. C.

2000-01-01

This technical publication describes the methodology, model, software tool, input data, and analysis result that support aerospace design reliability studies. The focus of these activities is on propulsion systems mechanical design reliability. The goal of these activities is to support design from a reliability perspective. Paralleling performance analyses in schedule and method, this requires the proper use of metrics in a validated reliability model useful for design, sensitivity, and trade studies. Design reliability analysis in this view is one of several critical design functions. A design reliability method is detailed and two example analyses are provided-one qualitative and the other quantitative. The use of aerospace and commercial data sources for quantification is discussed and sources listed. A tool that was developed to support both types of analyses is presented. Finally, special topics discussed include the development of design criteria, issues of reliability quantification, quality control, and reliability verification.

Digital Avionics Information System (DAIS): Life Cycle Cost Impact Modeling System Reliability, Maintainability, and Cost Model (RMCM)--Description. Users Guide. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goclowski, John C.; And Others

The Reliability, Maintainability, and Cost Model (RMCM) described in this report is an interactive mathematical model with a built-in sensitivity analysis capability. It is a major component of the Life Cycle Cost Impact Model (LCCIM), which was developed as part of the DAIS advanced development program to be used to assess the potential impacts…

Life and reliability models for helicopter transmissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Knorr, R. J.; Coy, J. J.

1982-01-01

Computer models of life and reliability are presented for planetary gear trains with a fixed ring gear, input applied to the sun gear, and output taken from the planet arm. For this transmission the input and output shafts are co-axial and the input and output torques are assumed to be coaxial with these shafts. Thrust and side loading are neglected. The reliability model is based on the Weibull distributions of the individual reliabilities of the in transmission components. The system model is also a Weibull distribution. The load versus life model for the system is a power relationship as the models for the individual components. The load-life exponent and basic dynamic capacity are developed as functions of the components capacities. The models are used to compare three and four planet, 150 kW (200 hp), 5:1 reduction transmissions with 1500 rpm input speed to illustrate their use.

A tutorial on the CARE III approach to reliability modeling. [of fault tolerant avionics and control systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trivedi, K. S.; Geist, R. M.

1981-01-01

The CARE 3 reliability model for aircraft avionics and control systems is described by utilizing a number of examples which frequently use state-of-the-art mathematical modeling techniques as a basis for their exposition. Behavioral decomposition followed by aggregration were used in an attempt to deal with reliability models with a large number of states. A comprehensive set of models of the fault-handling processes in a typical fault-tolerant system was used. These models were semi-Markov in nature, thus removing the usual restrictions of exponential holding times within the coverage model. The aggregate model is a non-homogeneous Markov chain, thus allowing the times to failure to posses Weibull-like distributions. Because of the departures from traditional models, the solution method employed is that of Kolmogorov integral equations, which are evaluated numerically.

Hierarchical specification of the SIFT fault tolerant flight control system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melliar-Smith, P. M.; Schwartz, R. L.

1981-01-01

The specification and mechanical verification of the Software Implemented Fault Tolerance (SIFT) flight control system is described. The methodology employed in the verification effort is discussed, and a description of the hierarchical models of the SIFT system is given. To meet the objective of NASA for the reliability of safety critical flight control systems, the SIFT computer must achieve a reliability well beyond the levels at which reliability can be actually measured. The methodology employed to demonstrate rigorously that the SIFT computer meets as reliability requirements is described. The hierarchy of design specifications from very abstract descriptions of system function down to the actual implementation is explained. The most abstract design specifications can be used to verify that the system functions correctly and with the desired reliability since almost all details of the realization were abstracted out. A succession of lower level models refine these specifications to the level of the actual implementation, and can be used to demonstrate that the implementation has the properties claimed of the abstract design specifications.

Reliability and performance evaluation of systems containing embedded rule-based expert systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beaton, Robert M.; Adams, Milton B.; Harrison, James V. A.

1989-01-01

A method for evaluating the reliability of real-time systems containing embedded rule-based expert systems is proposed and investigated. It is a three stage technique that addresses the impact of knowledge-base uncertainties on the performance of expert systems. In the first stage, a Markov reliability model of the system is developed which identifies the key performance parameters of the expert system. In the second stage, the evaluation method is used to determine the values of the expert system's key performance parameters. The performance parameters can be evaluated directly by using a probabilistic model of uncertainties in the knowledge-base or by using sensitivity analyses. In the third and final state, the performance parameters of the expert system are combined with performance parameters for other system components and subsystems to evaluate the reliability and performance of the complete system. The evaluation method is demonstrated in the context of a simple expert system used to supervise the performances of an FDI algorithm associated with an aircraft longitudinal flight-control system.

An abstract specification language for Markov reliability models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, R. W.

1985-01-01

Markov models can be used to compute the reliability of virtually any fault tolerant system. However, the process of delineating all of the states and transitions in a model of complex system can be devastatingly tedious and error-prone. An approach to this problem is presented utilizing an abstract model definition language. This high level language is described in a nonformal manner and illustrated by example.

An abstract language for specifying Markov reliability models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Ricky W.

1986-01-01

Markov models can be used to compute the reliability of virtually any fault tolerant system. However, the process of delineating all of the states and transitions in a model of complex system can be devastatingly tedious and error-prone. An approach to this problem is presented utilizing an abstract model definition language. This high level language is described in a nonformal manner and illustrated by example.

Improving Metrological Reliability of Information-Measuring Systems Using Mathematical Modeling of Their Metrological Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurnosov, R. Yu; Chernyshova, T. I.; Chernyshov, V. N.

2018-05-01

The algorithms for improving the metrological reliability of analogue blocks of measuring channels and information-measuring systems are developed. The proposed algorithms ensure the optimum values of their metrological reliability indices for a given analogue circuit block solution.

Characterization of System Level Single Event Upset (SEU) Responses using SEU Data, Classical Reliability Models, and Space Environment Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berg, Melanie; Label, Kenneth; Campola, Michael; Xapsos, Michael

2017-01-01

We propose a method for the application of single event upset (SEU) data towards the analysis of complex systems using transformed reliability models (from the time domain to the particle fluence domain) and space environment data.

Technique for Early Reliability Prediction of Software Components Using Behaviour Models

PubMed Central

Ali, Awad; N. A. Jawawi, Dayang; Adham Isa, Mohd; Imran Babar, Muhammad

2016-01-01

Behaviour models are the most commonly used input for predicting the reliability of a software system at the early design stage. A component behaviour model reveals the structure and behaviour of the component during the execution of system-level functionalities. There are various challenges related to component reliability prediction at the early design stage based on behaviour models. For example, most of the current reliability techniques do not provide fine-grained sequential behaviour models of individual components and fail to consider the loop entry and exit points in the reliability computation. Moreover, some of the current techniques do not tackle the problem of operational data unavailability and the lack of analysis results that can be valuable for software architects at the early design stage. This paper proposes a reliability prediction technique that, pragmatically, synthesizes system behaviour in the form of a state machine, given a set of scenarios and corresponding constraints as input. The state machine is utilized as a base for generating the component-relevant operational data. The state machine is also used as a source for identifying the nodes and edges of a component probabilistic dependency graph (CPDG). Based on the CPDG, a stack-based algorithm is used to compute the reliability. The proposed technique is evaluated by a comparison with existing techniques and the application of sensitivity analysis to a robotic wheelchair system as a case study. The results indicate that the proposed technique is more relevant at the early design stage compared to existing works, and can provide a more realistic and meaningful prediction. PMID:27668748

Space Vehicle Reliability Modeling in DIORAMA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tornga, Shawn Robert

When modeling system performance of space based detection systems it is important to consider spacecraft reliability. As space vehicles age the components become prone to failure for a variety of reasons such as radiation damage. Additionally, some vehicles may lose the ability to maneuver once they exhaust fuel supplies. Typically failure is divided into two categories: engineering mistakes and technology surprise. This document will report on a method of simulating space vehicle reliability in the DIORAMA framework.

Determining minimum staffing levels during snowstorms using an integrated simulation, regression, and reliability model.

PubMed

Kunkel, Amber; McLay, Laura A

2013-03-01

Emergency medical services (EMS) provide life-saving care and hospital transport to patients with severe trauma or medical conditions. Severe weather events, such as snow events, may lead to adverse patient outcomes by increasing call volumes and service times. Adequate staffing levels during such weather events are critical for ensuring that patients receive timely care. To determine staffing levels that depend on weather, we propose a model that uses a discrete event simulation of a reliability model to identify minimum staffing levels that provide timely patient care, with regression used to provide the input parameters. The system is said to be reliable if there is a high degree of confidence that ambulances can immediately respond to a given proportion of patients (e.g., 99 %). Four weather scenarios capture varying levels of snow falling and snow on the ground. An innovative feature of our approach is that we evaluate the mitigating effects of different extrinsic response policies and intrinsic system adaptation. The models use data from Hanover County, Virginia to quantify how snow reduces EMS system reliability and necessitates increasing staffing levels. The model and its analysis can assist in EMS preparedness by providing a methodology to adjust staffing levels during weather events. A key observation is that when it is snowing, intrinsic system adaptation has similar effects on system reliability as one additional ambulance.

The reliability analysis of a separated, dual fail operational redundant strapdown IMU. [inertial measurement unit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Motyka, P.

1983-01-01

A methodology for quantitatively analyzing the reliability of redundant avionics systems, in general, and the dual, separated Redundant Strapdown Inertial Measurement Unit (RSDIMU), in particular, is presented. The RSDIMU is described and a candidate failure detection and isolation system presented. A Markov reliability model is employed. The operational states of the system are defined and the single-step state transition diagrams discussed. Graphical results, showing the impact of major system parameters on the reliability of the RSDIMU system, are presented and discussed.

Program for computer aided reliability estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathur, F. P. (Inventor)

1972-01-01

A computer program for estimating the reliability of self-repair and fault-tolerant systems with respect to selected system and mission parameters is presented. The computer program is capable of operation in an interactive conversational mode as well as in a batch mode and is characterized by maintenance of several general equations representative of basic redundancy schemes in an equation repository. Selected reliability functions applicable to any mathematical model formulated with the general equations, used singly or in combination with each other, are separately stored. One or more system and/or mission parameters may be designated as a variable. Data in the form of values for selected reliability functions is generated in a tabular or graphic format for each formulated model.

Markov modeling and reliability analysis of urea synthesis system of a fertilizer plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aggarwal, Anil Kr.; Kumar, Sanjeev; Singh, Vikram; Garg, Tarun Kr.

2015-12-01

This paper deals with the Markov modeling and reliability analysis of urea synthesis system of a fertilizer plant. This system was modeled using Markov birth-death process with the assumption that the failure and repair rates of each subsystem follow exponential distribution. The first-order Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equations are developed with the use of mnemonic rule and these equations are solved with Runga-Kutta fourth-order method. The long-run availability, reliability and mean time between failures are computed for various choices of failure and repair rates of subsystems of the system. The findings of the paper are discussed with the plant personnel to adopt and practice suitable maintenance policies/strategies to enhance the performance of the urea synthesis system of the fertilizer plant.

Modeling Imperfect Generator Behavior in Power System Operation Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krad, Ibrahim

A key component in power system operations is the use of computer models to quickly study and analyze different operating conditions and futures in an efficient manner. The output of these models are sensitive to the data used in them as well as the assumptions made during their execution. One typical assumption is that generators and load assets perfectly follow operator control signals. While this is a valid simulation assumption, generators may not always accurately follow control signals. This imperfect response of generators could impact cost and reliability metrics. This paper proposes a generator model that capture this imperfect behaviormore » and examines its impact on production costs and reliability metrics using a steady-state power system operations model. Preliminary analysis shows that while costs remain relatively unchanged, there could be significant impacts on reliability metrics.« less

Markov reward processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, R. M.

1991-01-01

Numerous applications in the area of computer system analysis can be effectively studied with Markov reward models. These models describe the behavior of the system with a continuous-time Markov chain, where a reward rate is associated with each state. In a reliability/availability model, upstates may have reward rate 1 and down states may have reward rate zero associated with them. In a queueing model, the number of jobs of certain type in a given state may be the reward rate attached to that state. In a combined model of performance and reliability, the reward rate of a state may be the computational capacity, or a related performance measure. Expected steady-state reward rate and expected instantaneous reward rate are clearly useful measures of the Markov reward model. More generally, the distribution of accumulated reward or time-averaged reward over a finite time interval may be determined from the solution of the Markov reward model. This information is of great practical significance in situations where the workload can be well characterized (deterministically, or by continuous functions e.g., distributions). The design process in the development of a computer system is an expensive and long term endeavor. For aerospace applications the reliability of the computer system is essential, as is the ability to complete critical workloads in a well defined real time interval. Consequently, effective modeling of such systems must take into account both performance and reliability. This fact motivates our use of Markov reward models to aid in the development and evaluation of fault tolerant computer systems.

Apples to Apples: Equivalent-Reliability Power Systems Across Diverse Resource Mix Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stephen, Gordon W; Frew, Bethany A; Sigler, Devon

Electricity market research is highly price sensitive, and prices are strongly influenced by balance of supply and demand. This work looks at how to combine capacity expansion models and reliability assessment tools to assess equivalent-reliability power systems across diverse resource mix scenarios.

Computer aided reliability, availability, and safety modeling for fault-tolerant computer systems with commentary on the HARP program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shooman, Martin L.

1991-01-01

Many of the most challenging reliability problems of our present decade involve complex distributed systems such as interconnected telephone switching computers, air traffic control centers, aircraft and space vehicles, and local area and wide area computer networks. In addition to the challenge of complexity, modern fault-tolerant computer systems require very high levels of reliability, e.g., avionic computers with MTTF goals of one billion hours. Most analysts find that it is too difficult to model such complex systems without computer aided design programs. In response to this need, NASA has developed a suite of computer aided reliability modeling programs beginning with CARE 3 and including a group of new programs such as: HARP, HARP-PC, Reliability Analysts Workbench (Combination of model solvers SURE, STEM, PAWS, and common front-end model ASSIST), and the Fault Tree Compiler. The HARP program is studied and how well the user can model systems using this program is investigated. One of the important objectives will be to study how user friendly this program is, e.g., how easy it is to model the system, provide the input information, and interpret the results. The experiences of the author and his graduate students who used HARP in two graduate courses are described. Some brief comparisons were made with the ARIES program which the students also used. Theoretical studies of the modeling techniques used in HARP are also included. Of course no answer can be any more accurate than the fidelity of the model, thus an Appendix is included which discusses modeling accuracy. A broad viewpoint is taken and all problems which occurred in the use of HARP are discussed. Such problems include: computer system problems, installation manual problems, user manual problems, program inconsistencies, program limitations, confusing notation, long run times, accuracy problems, etc.

Characterization of System on a Chip (SoC) Single Event Upset (SEU) Responses Using SEU Data, Classical Reliability Models, and Space Environment Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berg, Melanie; Label, Kenneth; Campola, Michael; Xapsos, Michael

2017-01-01

We propose a method for the application of single event upset (SEU) data towards the analysis of complex systems using transformed reliability models (from the time domain to the particle fluence domain) and space environment data.

Digital Avionics Information System (DAIS): Reliability and Maintainability Model Users Guide. Final Report, May 1975-July 1977.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Czuchry, Andrew J.; And Others

This report provides a complete guide to the stand alone mode operation of the reliability and maintenance (R&M) model, which was developed to facilitate the performance of design versus cost trade-offs within the digital avionics information system (DAIS) acquisition process. The features and structure of the model, its input data…

Reliability analysis based on the losses from failures.

PubMed

Todinov, M T

2006-04-01

The conventional reliability analysis is based on the premise that increasing the reliability of a system will decrease the losses from failures. On the basis of counterexamples, it is demonstrated that this is valid only if all failures are associated with the same losses. In case of failures associated with different losses, a system with larger reliability is not necessarily characterized by smaller losses from failures. Consequently, a theoretical framework and models are proposed for a reliability analysis, linking reliability and the losses from failures. Equations related to the distributions of the potential losses from failure have been derived. It is argued that the classical risk equation only estimates the average value of the potential losses from failure and does not provide insight into the variability associated with the potential losses. Equations have also been derived for determining the potential and the expected losses from failures for nonrepairable and repairable systems with components arranged in series, with arbitrary life distributions. The equations are also valid for systems/components with multiple mutually exclusive failure modes. The expected losses given failure is a linear combination of the expected losses from failure associated with the separate failure modes scaled by the conditional probabilities with which the failure modes initiate failure. On this basis, an efficient method for simplifying complex reliability block diagrams has been developed. Branches of components arranged in series whose failures are mutually exclusive can be reduced to single components with equivalent hazard rate, downtime, and expected costs associated with intervention and repair. A model for estimating the expected losses from early-life failures has also been developed. For a specified time interval, the expected losses from early-life failures are a sum of the products of the expected number of failures in the specified time intervals covering the early-life failures region and the expected losses given failure characterizing the corresponding time intervals. For complex systems whose components are not logically arranged in series, discrete simulation algorithms and software have been created for determining the losses from failures in terms of expected lost production time, cost of intervention, and cost of replacement. Different system topologies are assessed to determine the effect of modifications of the system topology on the expected losses from failures. It is argued that the reliability allocation in a production system should be done to maximize the profit/value associated with the system. Consequently, a method for setting reliability requirements and reliability allocation maximizing the profit by minimizing the total cost has been developed. Reliability allocation that maximizes the profit in case of a system consisting of blocks arranged in series is achieved by determining for each block individually the reliabilities of the components in the block that minimize the sum of the capital, operation costs, and the expected losses from failures. A Monte Carlo simulation based net present value (NPV) cash-flow model has also been proposed, which has significant advantages to cash-flow models based on the expected value of the losses from failures per time interval. Unlike these models, the proposed model has the capability to reveal the variation of the NPV due to different number of failures occurring during a specified time interval (e.g., during one year). The model also permits tracking the impact of the distribution pattern of failure occurrences and the time dependence of the losses from failures.

Business Cases for Microgrids: Modeling Interactions of Technology Choice, Reliability, Cost, and Benefit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanna, Ryan

Distributed energy resources (DERs), and increasingly microgrids, are becoming an integral part of modern distribution systems. Interest in microgrids--which are insular and autonomous power networks embedded within the bulk grid--stems largely from the vast array of flexibilities and benefits they can offer stakeholders. Managed well, they can improve grid reliability and resiliency, increase end-use energy efficiency by coupling electric and thermal loads, reduce transmission losses by generating power locally, and may reduce system-wide emissions, among many others. Whether these public benefits are realized, however, depends on whether private firms see a "business case", or private value, in investing. To this end, firms need models that evaluate costs, benefits, risks, and assumptions that underlie decisions to invest. The objectives of this dissertation are to assess the business case for microgrids that provide what industry analysts forecast as two primary drivers of market growth--that of providing energy services (similar to an electric utility) as well as reliability service to customers within. Prototypical first adopters are modeled--using an existing model to analyze energy services and a new model that couples that analysis with one of reliability--to explore interactions between technology choice, reliability, costs, and benefits. The new model has a bi-level hierarchy; it uses heuristic optimization to select and size DERs and analytical optimization to schedule them. It further embeds Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate reliability as well as regression models for customer damage functions to monetize reliability. It provides least-cost microgrid configurations for utility customers who seek to reduce interruption and operating costs. Lastly, the model is used to explore the impact of such adoption on system-wide greenhouse gas emissions in California. Results indicate that there are, at present, co-benefits for emissions reductions when customers adopt and operate microgrids for private benefit, though future analysis is needed as the bulk grid continues to transition toward a less carbon intensive system.

Dynamic decision-making for reliability and maintenance analysis of manufacturing systems based on failure effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ding; Zhang, Yingjie

2017-09-01

A framework for reliability and maintenance analysis of job shop manufacturing systems is proposed in this paper. An efficient preventive maintenance (PM) policy in terms of failure effects analysis (FEA) is proposed. Subsequently, reliability evaluation and component importance measure based on FEA are performed under the PM policy. A job shop manufacturing system is applied to validate the reliability evaluation and dynamic maintenance policy. Obtained results are compared with existed methods and the effectiveness is validated. Some vague understandings for issues such as network modelling, vulnerabilities identification, the evaluation criteria of repairable systems, as well as PM policy during manufacturing system reliability analysis are elaborated. This framework can help for reliability optimisation and rational maintenance resources allocation of job shop manufacturing systems.

System reliability of randomly vibrating structures: Computational modeling and laboratory testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sundar, V. S.; Ammanagi, S.; Manohar, C. S.

2015-09-01

The problem of determination of system reliability of randomly vibrating structures arises in many application areas of engineering. We discuss in this paper approaches based on Monte Carlo simulations and laboratory testing to tackle problems of time variant system reliability estimation. The strategy we adopt is based on the application of Girsanov's transformation to the governing stochastic differential equations which enables estimation of probability of failure with significantly reduced number of samples than what is needed in a direct simulation study. Notably, we show that the ideas from Girsanov's transformation based Monte Carlo simulations can be extended to conduct laboratory testing to assess system reliability of engineering structures with reduced number of samples and hence with reduced testing times. Illustrative examples include computational studies on a 10-degree of freedom nonlinear system model and laboratory/computational investigations on road load response of an automotive system tested on a four-post test rig.

Investigation of reliability indicators of information analysis systems based on Markov’s absorbing chain model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilmanshin, I. R.; Kirpichnikov, A. P.

2017-09-01

In the result of study of the algorithm of the functioning of the early detection module of excessive losses, it is proven the ability to model it by using absorbing Markov chains. The particular interest is in the study of probability characteristics of early detection module functioning algorithm of losses in order to identify the relationship of indicators of reliability of individual elements, or the probability of occurrence of certain events and the likelihood of transmission of reliable information. The identified relations during the analysis allow to set thresholds reliability characteristics of the system components.

Method of Testing and Predicting Failures of Electronic Mechanical Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iverson, David L.; Patterson-Hine, Frances A.

1996-01-01

A method employing a knowledge base of human expertise comprising a reliability model analysis implemented for diagnostic routines is disclosed. The reliability analysis comprises digraph models that determine target events created by hardware failures human actions, and other factors affecting the system operation. The reliability analysis contains a wealth of human expertise information that is used to build automatic diagnostic routines and which provides a knowledge base that can be used to solve other artificial intelligence problems.

System principles, mathematical models and methods to ensure high reliability of safety systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaslavskyi, V.

2017-04-01

Modern safety and security systems are composed of a large number of various components designed for detection, localization, tracking, collecting, and processing of information from the systems of monitoring, telemetry, control, etc. They are required to be highly reliable in a view to correctly perform data aggregation, processing and analysis for subsequent decision making support. On design and construction phases of the manufacturing of such systems a various types of components (elements, devices, and subsystems) are considered and used to ensure high reliability of signals detection, noise isolation, and erroneous commands reduction. When generating design solutions for highly reliable systems a number of restrictions and conditions such as types of components and various constrains on resources should be considered. Various types of components perform identical functions; however, they are implemented using diverse principles, approaches and have distinct technical and economic indicators such as cost or power consumption. The systematic use of different component types increases the probability of tasks performing and eliminates the common cause failure. We consider type-variety principle as an engineering principle of system analysis, mathematical models based on this principle, and algorithms for solving optimization problems of highly reliable safety and security systems design. Mathematical models are formalized in a class of two-level discrete optimization problems of large dimension. The proposed approach, mathematical models, algorithms can be used for problem solving of optimal redundancy on the basis of a variety of methods and control devices for fault and defects detection in technical systems, telecommunication networks, and energy systems.

Modeling and simulation of reliability of unmanned intelligent vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Harpreet; Dixit, Arati M.; Mustapha, Adam; Singh, Kuldip; Aggarwal, K. K.; Gerhart, Grant R.

2008-04-01

Unmanned ground vehicles have a large number of scientific, military and commercial applications. A convoy of such vehicles can have collaboration and coordination. For the movement of such a convoy, it is important to predict the reliability of the system. A number of approaches are available in literature which describes the techniques for determining the reliability of the system. Graph theoretic approaches are popular in determining terminal reliability and system reliability. In this paper we propose to exploit Fuzzy and Neuro-Fuzzy approaches for predicting the node and branch reliability of the system while Boolean algebra approaches are used to determine terminal reliability and system reliability. Hence a combination of intelligent approaches like Fuzzy, Neuro-Fuzzy and Boolean approaches is used to predict the overall system reliability of a convoy of vehicles. The node reliabilities may correspond to the collaboration of vehicles while branch reliabilities will determine the terminal reliabilities between different nodes. An algorithm is proposed for determining the system reliabilities of a convoy of vehicles. The simulation of the overall system is proposed. Such simulation should be helpful to the commander to take an appropriate action depending on the predicted reliability in different terrain and environmental conditions. It is hoped that results of this paper will lead to more important techniques to have a reliable convoy of vehicles in a battlefield.

Discrete Address Beacon System (DABS) Software System Reliability Modeling and Prediction.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-06-01

Service ( ATARS ) module because of its interim status. Reliability prediction models for software modules were derived and then verified by matching...System (A’iCR3BS) and thus can be introduced gradually and economically without ma jor olper- ational or procedural change. Since DABS uses monopulse...lineanaly- sis tools or are ured during maintenance or pre-initialization were not modeled because they are not part of the mission software. The ATARS

Results of a Demonstration Assessment of Passive System Reliability Utilizing the Reliability Method for Passive Systems (RMPS)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bucknor, Matthew; Grabaskas, David; Brunett, Acacia

2015-04-26

Advanced small modular reactor designs include many advantageous design features such as passively driven safety systems that are arguably more reliable and cost effective relative to conventional active systems. Despite their attractiveness, a reliability assessment of passive systems can be difficult using conventional reliability methods due to the nature of passive systems. Simple deviations in boundary conditions can induce functional failures in a passive system, and intermediate or unexpected operating modes can also occur. As part of an ongoing project, Argonne National Laboratory is investigating various methodologies to address passive system reliability. The Reliability Method for Passive Systems (RMPS), amore » systematic approach for examining reliability, is one technique chosen for this analysis. This methodology is combined with the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) approach to assess the reliability of a passive system and the impact of its associated uncertainties. For this demonstration problem, an integrated plant model of an advanced small modular pool-type sodium fast reactor with a passive reactor cavity cooling system is subjected to a station blackout using RELAP5-3D. This paper discusses important aspects of the reliability assessment, including deployment of the methodology, the uncertainty identification and quantification process, and identification of key risk metrics.« less

Reliability of IGBT in a STATCOM for Harmonic Compensation and Power Factor Correction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gopi Reddy, Lakshmi Reddy; Tolbert, Leon M; Ozpineci, Burak

With smart grid integration, there is a need to characterize reliability of a power system by including reliability of power semiconductors in grid related applications. In this paper, the reliability of IGBTs in a STATCOM application is presented for two different applications, power factor correction and harmonic elimination. The STATCOM model is developed in EMTP, and analytical equations for average conduction losses in an IGBT and a diode are derived and compared with experimental data. A commonly used reliability model is used to predict reliability of IGBT.

Protocol and Demonstrations of Probabilistic Reliability Assessment for Structural Health Monitoring Systems (Preprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-01

assessment to quality of localization/characterization estimates. This protocol includes four critical components: (1) a procedure to identify the...critical factors impacting SHM system performance; (2) a multistage or hierarchical approach to SHM system validation; (3) a model -assisted evaluation...Lindgren, E. A ., Buynak, C. F., Steffes, G., Derriso, M., “ Model -assisted Probabilistic Reliability Assessment for Structural Health Monitoring

Comparing the reliability of related populations with the probability of agreement

DOE PAGES

Stevens, Nathaniel T.; Anderson-Cook, Christine M.

2016-07-26

Combining information from different populations to improve precision, simplify future predictions, or improve underlying understanding of relationships can be advantageous when considering the reliability of several related sets of systems. Using the probability of agreement to help quantify the similarities of populations can help to give a realistic assessment of whether the systems have reliability that are sufficiently similar for practical purposes to be treated as a homogeneous population. In addition, the new method is described and illustrated with an example involving two generations of a complex system where the reliability is modeled using either a logistic or probit regressionmore » model. Note that supplementary materials including code, datasets, and added discussion are available online.« less

Comparing the reliability of related populations with the probability of agreement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stevens, Nathaniel T.; Anderson-Cook, Christine M.

Combining information from different populations to improve precision, simplify future predictions, or improve underlying understanding of relationships can be advantageous when considering the reliability of several related sets of systems. Using the probability of agreement to help quantify the similarities of populations can help to give a realistic assessment of whether the systems have reliability that are sufficiently similar for practical purposes to be treated as a homogeneous population. In addition, the new method is described and illustrated with an example involving two generations of a complex system where the reliability is modeled using either a logistic or probit regressionmore » model. Note that supplementary materials including code, datasets, and added discussion are available online.« less

A hierarchical approach to reliability modeling of fault-tolerant systems. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gossman, W. E.

1986-01-01

A methodology for performing fault tolerant system reliability analysis is presented. The method decomposes a system into its subsystems, evaluates vent rates derived from the subsystem's conditional state probability vector and incorporates those results into a hierarchical Markov model of the system. This is done in a manner that addresses failure sequence dependence associated with the system's redundancy management strategy. The method is derived for application to a specific system definition. Results are presented that compare the hierarchical model's unreliability prediction to that of a more complicated tandard Markov model of the system. The results for the example given indicate that the hierarchical method predicts system unreliability to a desirable level of accuracy while achieving significant computational savings relative to component level Markov model of the system.

Care 3 model overview and user's guide, first revision

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, S. J.; Petersen, P. L.

1985-01-01

A manual was written to introduce the CARE III (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation) capability to reliability and design engineers who are interested in predicting the reliability of highly reliable fault-tolerant systems. It was also structured to serve as a quick-look reference manual for more experienced users. The guide covers CARE III modeling and reliability predictions for execution in the CDC CYber 170 series computers, DEC VAX-11/700 series computer, and most machines that compile ANSI Standard FORTRAN 77.

A Report on Simulation-Driven Reliability and Failure Analysis of Large-Scale Storage Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wan, Lipeng; Wang, Feiyi; Oral, H. Sarp

High-performance computing (HPC) storage systems provide data availability and reliability using various hardware and software fault tolerance techniques. Usually, reliability and availability are calculated at the subsystem or component level using limited metrics such as, mean time to failure (MTTF) or mean time to data loss (MTTDL). This often means settling on simple and disconnected failure models (such as exponential failure rate) to achieve tractable and close-formed solutions. However, such models have been shown to be insufficient in assessing end-to-end storage system reliability and availability. We propose a generic simulation framework aimed at analyzing the reliability and availability of storagemore » systems at scale, and investigating what-if scenarios. The framework is designed for an end-to-end storage system, accommodating the various components and subsystems, their interconnections, failure patterns and propagation, and performs dependency analysis to capture a wide-range of failure cases. We evaluate the framework against a large-scale storage system that is in production and analyze its failure projections toward and beyond the end of lifecycle. We also examine the potential operational impact by studying how different types of components affect the overall system reliability and availability, and present the preliminary results« less

Proximal humeral fracture classification systems revisited.

PubMed

Majed, Addie; Macleod, Iain; Bull, Anthony M J; Zyto, Karol; Resch, Herbert; Hertel, Ralph; Reilly, Peter; Emery, Roger J H

2011-10-01

This study evaluated several classification systems and expert surgeons' anatomic understanding of these complex injuries based on a consecutive series of patients. We hypothesized that current proximal humeral fracture classification systems, regardless of imaging methods, are not sufficiently reliable to aid clinical management of these injuries. Complex fractures in 96 consecutive patients were investigated by generation of rapid sequence prototyping models from computed tomography Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) imaging data. Four independent senior observers were asked to classify each model using 4 classification systems: Neer, AO, Codman-Hertel, and a prototype classification system by Resch. Interobserver and intraobserver κ coefficient values were calculated for the overall classification system and for selected classification items. The κ coefficient values for the interobserver reliability were 0.33 for Neer, 0.11 for AO, 0.44 for Codman-Hertel, and 0.15 for Resch. Interobserver reliability κ coefficient values were 0.32 for the number of fragments and 0.30 for the anatomic segment involved using the Neer system, 0.30 for the AO type (A, B, C), and 0.53, 0.48, and 0.08 for the Resch impaction/distraction, varus/valgus and flexion/extension subgroups, respectively. Three-part fractures showed low reliability for the Neer and AO systems. Currently available evidence suggests fracture classifications in use have poor intra- and inter-observer reliability despite the modality of imaging used thus making treating these injuries difficult as weak as affecting scientific research as well. This study was undertaken to evaluate the reliability of several systems using rapid sequence prototype models. Overall interobserver κ values represented slight to moderate agreement. The most reliable interobserver scores were found with the Codman-Hertel classification, followed by elements of Resch's trial system. The AO system had the lowest values. The higher interobserver reliability values for the Codman-Hertel system showed that is the only comprehensive fracture description studied, whereas the novel classification by Resch showed clear definition in respect to varus/valgus and impaction/distraction angulation. Copyright © 2011 Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery Board of Trustees. All rights reserved.

Stochastic Models of Human Errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elshamy, Maged; Elliott, Dawn M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Humans play an important role in the overall reliability of engineering systems. More often accidents and systems failure are traced to human errors. Therefore, in order to have meaningful system risk analysis, the reliability of the human element must be taken into consideration. Describing the human error process by mathematical models is a key to analyzing contributing factors. Therefore, the objective of this research effort is to establish stochastic models substantiated by sound theoretic foundation to address the occurrence of human errors in the processing of the space shuttle.

Automatic specification of reliability models for fault-tolerant computers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liceaga, Carlos A.; Siewiorek, Daniel P.

1993-01-01

The calculation of reliability measures using Markov models is required for life-critical processor-memory-switch structures that have standby redundancy or that are subject to transient or intermittent faults or repair. The task of specifying these models is tedious and prone to human error because of the large number of states and transitions required in any reasonable system. Therefore, model specification is a major analysis bottleneck, and model verification is a major validation problem. The general unfamiliarity of computer architects with Markov modeling techniques further increases the necessity of automating the model specification. Automation requires a general system description language (SDL). For practicality, this SDL should also provide a high level of abstraction and be easy to learn and use. The first attempt to define and implement an SDL with those characteristics is presented. A program named Automated Reliability Modeling (ARM) was constructed as a research vehicle. The ARM program uses a graphical interface as its SDL, and it outputs a Markov reliability model specification formulated for direct use by programs that generate and evaluate the model.

Reliability Analysis and Modeling of ZigBee Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Cheng-Min

The architecture of ZigBee networks focuses on developing low-cost, low-speed ubiquitous communication between devices. The ZigBee technique is based on IEEE 802.15.4, which specifies the physical layer and medium access control (MAC) for a low rate wireless personal area network (LR-WPAN). Currently, numerous wireless sensor networks have adapted the ZigBee open standard to develop various services to promote improved communication quality in our daily lives. The problem of system and network reliability in providing stable services has become more important because these services will be stopped if the system and network reliability is unstable. The ZigBee standard has three kinds of networks; star, tree and mesh. The paper models the ZigBee protocol stack from the physical layer to the application layer and analyzes these layer reliability and mean time to failure (MTTF). Channel resource usage, device role, network topology and application objects are used to evaluate reliability in the physical, medium access control, network, and application layers, respectively. In the star or tree networks, a series system and the reliability block diagram (RBD) technique can be used to solve their reliability problem. However, a division technology is applied here to overcome the problem because the network complexity is higher than that of the others. A mesh network using division technology is classified into several non-reducible series systems and edge parallel systems. Hence, the reliability of mesh networks is easily solved using series-parallel systems through our proposed scheme. The numerical results demonstrate that the reliability will increase for mesh networks when the number of edges in parallel systems increases while the reliability quickly drops when the number of edges and the number of nodes increase for all three networks. More use of resources is another factor impact on reliability decreasing. However, lower network reliability will occur due to network complexity, more resource usage and complex object relationship.

Reliability of a k—out—of—n : G System with Identical Repairable Elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharifi, M.; Nia, A. Torabi; Shafie, P.; Norozi-Zare, F.; Sabet-Ghadam, A.

2009-09-01

k—out—of—n models, are one of the most useful models to calculate the reliability of complex systems like electrical and mechanical devices. In this paper, we consider a k—out—of—n : G system with identical elements. The failure rate of each element is constant. The elements are repairable and the repair rate of each element is constant. The system works when at least k elements work. The system of equations are established and sought for the parameters like MTTF in real time situation. It seems that this model can tackle more realistic situations.

Automation of reliability evaluation procedures through CARE - The computer-aided reliability estimation program.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathur, F. P.

1972-01-01

Description of an on-line interactive computer program called CARE (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation) which can model self-repair and fault-tolerant organizations and perform certain other functions. Essentially CARE consists of a repository of mathematical equations defining the various basic redundancy schemes. These equations, under program control, are then interrelated to generate the desired mathematical model to fit the architecture of the system under evaluation. The mathematical model is then supplied with ground instances of its variables and is then evaluated to generate values for the reliability-theoretic functions applied to the model.

Improved Acquisition for System Sustainment: Multiobjective Tradeoff Analysis for Condition-Based Decision-Making

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-21

depend on the quality of allocating resources. This work uses a reliability model of system and environmental covariates incorporating information at...state space. Further, the use of condition variables allows for the direct modeling of maintenance impact with the assumption that a nominal value ... value ), the model in the application of aviation maintenance can provide a useful estimation of reliability at multiple levels. Adjusted survival

Tutorial: Advanced fault tree applications using HARP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dugan, Joanne Bechta; Bavuso, Salvatore J.; Boyd, Mark A.

1993-01-01

Reliability analysis of fault tolerant computer systems for critical applications is complicated by several factors. These modeling difficulties are discussed and dynamic fault tree modeling techniques for handling them are described and demonstrated. Several advanced fault tolerant computer systems are described, and fault tree models for their analysis are presented. HARP (Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor) is a software package developed at Duke University and NASA Langley Research Center that is capable of solving the fault tree models presented.

An approximation formula for a class of fault-tolerant computers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, A. L.

1986-01-01

An approximation formula is derived for the probability of failure for fault-tolerant process-control computers. These computers use redundancy and reconfiguration to achieve high reliability. Finite-state Markov models capture the dynamic behavior of component failure and system recovery, and the approximation formula permits an estimation of system reliability by an easy examination of the model.

Use of Model-Based Design Methods for Enhancing Resiliency Analysis of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knox, Lenora A.

The most common traditional non-functional requirement analysis is reliability. With systems becoming more complex, networked, and adaptive to environmental uncertainties, system resiliency has recently become the non-functional requirement analysis of choice. Analysis of system resiliency has challenges; which include, defining resilience for domain areas, identifying resilience metrics, determining resilience modeling strategies, and understanding how to best integrate the concepts of risk and reliability into resiliency. Formal methods that integrate all of these concepts do not currently exist in specific domain areas. Leveraging RAMSoS, a model-based reliability analysis methodology for Systems of Systems (SoS), we propose an extension that accounts for resiliency analysis through evaluation of mission performance, risk, and cost using multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) modeling and design trade study variability modeling evaluation techniques. This proposed methodology, coined RAMSoS-RESIL, is applied to a case study in the multi-agent unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) domain to investigate the potential benefits of a mission architecture where functionality to complete a mission is disseminated across multiple UAVs (distributed) opposed to being contained in a single UAV (monolithic). The case study based research demonstrates proof of concept for the proposed model-based technique and provides sufficient preliminary evidence to conclude which architectural design (distributed vs. monolithic) is most resilient based on insight into mission resilience performance, risk, and cost in addition to the traditional analysis of reliability.

Towards cost-effective reliability through visualization of the reliability option space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feather, Martin S.

2004-01-01

In planning a complex system's development there can be many options to improve its reliability. Typically their sum total cost exceeds the budget available, so it is necessary to select judiciously from among them. Reliability models can be employed to calculate the cost and reliability implications of a candidate selection.

Superior model for fault tolerance computation in designing nano-sized circuit systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singh, N. S. S., E-mail: narinderjit@petronas.com.my; Muthuvalu, M. S., E-mail: msmuthuvalu@gmail.com; Asirvadam, V. S., E-mail: vijanth-sagayan@petronas.com.my

2014-10-24

As CMOS technology scales nano-metrically, reliability turns out to be a decisive subject in the design methodology of nano-sized circuit systems. As a result, several computational approaches have been developed to compute and evaluate reliability of desired nano-electronic circuits. The process of computing reliability becomes very troublesome and time consuming as the computational complexity build ups with the desired circuit size. Therefore, being able to measure reliability instantly and superiorly is fast becoming necessary in designing modern logic integrated circuits. For this purpose, the paper firstly looks into the development of an automated reliability evaluation tool based on the generalizationmore » of Probabilistic Gate Model (PGM) and Boolean Difference-based Error Calculator (BDEC) models. The Matlab-based tool allows users to significantly speed-up the task of reliability analysis for very large number of nano-electronic circuits. Secondly, by using the developed automated tool, the paper explores into a comparative study involving reliability computation and evaluation by PGM and, BDEC models for different implementations of same functionality circuits. Based on the reliability analysis, BDEC gives exact and transparent reliability measures, but as the complexity of the same functionality circuits with respect to gate error increases, reliability measure by BDEC tends to be lower than the reliability measure by PGM. The lesser reliability measure by BDEC is well explained in this paper using distribution of different signal input patterns overtime for same functionality circuits. Simulation results conclude that the reliability measure by BDEC depends not only on faulty gates but it also depends on circuit topology, probability of input signals being one or zero and also probability of error on signal lines.« less

Proposed Reliability/Cost Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delionback, L. M.

1982-01-01

New technique estimates cost of improvement in reliability for complex system. Model format/approach is dependent upon use of subsystem cost-estimating relationships (CER's) in devising cost-effective policy. Proposed methodology should have application in broad range of engineering management decisions.

Impact of coverage on the reliability of a fault tolerant computer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, S. J.

1975-01-01

A mathematical reliability model is established for a reconfigurable fault tolerant avionic computer system utilizing state-of-the-art computers. System reliability is studied in light of the coverage probabilities associated with the first and second independent hardware failures. Coverage models are presented as a function of detection, isolation, and recovery probabilities. Upper and lower bonds are established for the coverage probabilities and the method for computing values for the coverage probabilities is investigated. Further, an architectural variation is proposed which is shown to enhance coverage.

Modeling of a bubble-memory organization with self-checking translators to achieve high reliability.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bouricius, W. G.; Carter, W. C.; Hsieh, E. P.; Wadia, A. B.; Jessep, D. C., Jr.

1973-01-01

Study of the design and modeling of a highly reliable bubble-memory system that has the capabilities of: (1) correcting a single 16-adjacent bit-group error resulting from failures in a single basic storage module (BSM), and (2) detecting with a probability greater than 0.99 any double errors resulting from failures in BSM's. The results of the study justify the design philosophy adopted of employing memory data encoding and a translator to correct single group errors and detect double group errors to enhance the overall system reliability.

An integrated approach to system design, reliability, and diagnosis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson-Hine, F. A.; Iverson, David L.

1990-01-01

The requirement for ultradependability of computer systems in future avionics and space applications necessitates a top-down, integrated systems engineering approach for design, implementation, testing, and operation. The functional analyses of hardware and software systems must be combined by models that are flexible enough to represent their interactions and behavior. The information contained in these models must be accessible throughout all phases of the system life cycle in order to maintain consistency and accuracy in design and operational decisions. One approach being taken by researchers at Ames Research Center is the creation of an object-oriented environment that integrates information about system components required in the reliability evaluation with behavioral information useful for diagnostic algorithms. Procedures have been developed at Ames that perform reliability evaluations during design and failure diagnoses during system operation. These procedures utilize information from a central source, structured as object-oriented fault trees. Fault trees were selected because they are a flexible model widely used in aerospace applications and because they give a concise, structured representation of system behavior. The utility of this integrated environment for aerospace applications in light of our experiences during its development and use is described. The techniques for reliability evaluation and failure diagnosis are discussed, and current extensions of the environment and areas requiring further development are summarized.

An integrated approach to system design, reliability, and diagnosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patterson-Hine, F. A.; Iverson, David L.

1990-12-01

The requirement for ultradependability of computer systems in future avionics and space applications necessitates a top-down, integrated systems engineering approach for design, implementation, testing, and operation. The functional analyses of hardware and software systems must be combined by models that are flexible enough to represent their interactions and behavior. The information contained in these models must be accessible throughout all phases of the system life cycle in order to maintain consistency and accuracy in design and operational decisions. One approach being taken by researchers at Ames Research Center is the creation of an object-oriented environment that integrates information about system components required in the reliability evaluation with behavioral information useful for diagnostic algorithms. Procedures have been developed at Ames that perform reliability evaluations during design and failure diagnoses during system operation. These procedures utilize information from a central source, structured as object-oriented fault trees. Fault trees were selected because they are a flexible model widely used in aerospace applications and because they give a concise, structured representation of system behavior. The utility of this integrated environment for aerospace applications in light of our experiences during its development and use is described. The techniques for reliability evaluation and failure diagnosis are discussed, and current extensions of the environment and areas requiring further development are summarized.

Design Strategy for a Formally Verified Reliable Computing Platform

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Ricky W.; Caldwell, James L.; DiVito, Ben L.

1991-01-01

This paper presents a high-level design for a reliable computing platform for real-time control applications. The design tradeoffs and analyses related to the development of a formally verified reliable computing platform are discussed. The design strategy advocated in this paper requires the use of techniques that can be completely characterized mathematically as opposed to more powerful or more flexible algorithms whose performance properties can only be analyzed by simulation and testing. The need for accurate reliability models that can be related to the behavior models is also stressed. Tradeoffs between reliability and voting complexity are explored. In particular, the transient recovery properties of the system are found to be fundamental to both the reliability analysis as well as the "correctness" models.

Reliability Growth in Space Life Support Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry W.

2014-01-01

A hardware system's failure rate often increases over time due to wear and aging, but not always. Some systems instead show reliability growth, a decreasing failure rate with time, due to effective failure analysis and remedial hardware upgrades. Reliability grows when failure causes are removed by improved design. A mathematical reliability growth model allows the reliability growth rate to be computed from the failure data. The space shuttle was extensively maintained, refurbished, and upgraded after each flight and it experienced significant reliability growth during its operational life. In contrast, the International Space Station (ISS) is much more difficult to maintain and upgrade and its failure rate has been constant over time. The ISS Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) reliability has slightly decreased. Failures on ISS and with the ISS CDRA continue to be a challenge.

Analysis of fatigue reliability for high temperature and high pressure multi-stage decompression control valve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Long; Xu, Juanjuan; Zhang, Lifang; Xu, Xiaogang

2018-03-01

Based on stress-strength interference theory to establish the reliability mathematical model for high temperature and high pressure multi-stage decompression control valve (HMDCV), and introduced to the temperature correction coefficient for revising material fatigue limit at high temperature. Reliability of key dangerous components and fatigue sensitivity curve of each component are calculated and analyzed by the means, which are analyzed the fatigue life of control valve and combined with reliability theory of control valve model. The impact proportion of each component on the control valve system fatigue failure was obtained. The results is shown that temperature correction factor makes the theoretical calculations of reliability more accurate, prediction life expectancy of main pressure parts accords with the technical requirements, and valve body and the sleeve have obvious influence on control system reliability, the stress concentration in key part of control valve can be reduced in the design process by improving structure.

Reliability and maintainability assessment factors for reliable fault-tolerant systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, S. J.

1984-01-01

A long term goal of the NASA Langley Research Center is the development of a reliability assessment methodology of sufficient power to enable the credible comparison of the stochastic attributes of one ultrareliable system design against others. This methodology, developed over a 10 year period, is a combined analytic and simulative technique. An analytic component is the Computer Aided Reliability Estimation capability, third generation, or simply CARE III. A simulative component is the Gate Logic Software Simulator capability, or GLOSS. The numerous factors that potentially have a degrading effect on system reliability and the ways in which these factors that are peculiar to highly reliable fault tolerant systems are accounted for in credible reliability assessments. Also presented are the modeling difficulties that result from their inclusion and the ways in which CARE III and GLOSS mitigate the intractability of the heretofore unworkable mathematics.

Development of a Standard Set of Software Indicators for Aeronautical Systems Center.

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-09-01

29:12). The composite models listed include COCOMO and the Software Productivity, Quality, and Reliability Model ( SPQR ) (29:12). The SPQR model was...determine the values of the 68 input parameters. Source provides no specifics. Indicator Name SPQR (SW Productivity, Qual, Reliability) Indicator Class

Graph modeling systems and methods

DOEpatents

Neergaard, Mike

2015-10-13

An apparatus and a method for vulnerability and reliability modeling are provided. The method generally includes constructing a graph model of a physical network using a computer, the graph model including a plurality of terminating vertices to represent nodes in the physical network, a plurality of edges to represent transmission paths in the physical network, and a non-terminating vertex to represent a non-nodal vulnerability along a transmission path in the physical network. The method additionally includes evaluating the vulnerability and reliability of the physical network using the constructed graph model, wherein the vulnerability and reliability evaluation includes a determination of whether each terminating and non-terminating vertex represents a critical point of failure. The method can be utilized to evaluate wide variety of networks, including power grid infrastructures, communication network topologies, and fluid distribution systems.

Robustness Analysis and Reliable Flight Regime Estimation of an Integrated Resilent Control System for a Transport Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shin, Jong-Yeob; Belcastro, Christine

2008-01-01

Formal robustness analysis of aircraft control upset prevention and recovery systems could play an important role in their validation and ultimate certification. As a part of the validation process, this paper describes an analysis method for determining a reliable flight regime in the flight envelope within which an integrated resilent control system can achieve the desired performance of tracking command signals and detecting additive faults in the presence of parameter uncertainty and unmodeled dynamics. To calculate a reliable flight regime, a structured singular value analysis method is applied to analyze the closed-loop system over the entire flight envelope. To use the structured singular value analysis method, a linear fractional transform (LFT) model of a transport aircraft longitudinal dynamics is developed over the flight envelope by using a preliminary LFT modeling software tool developed at the NASA Langley Research Center, which utilizes a matrix-based computational approach. The developed LFT model can capture original nonlinear dynamics over the flight envelope with the ! block which contains key varying parameters: angle of attack and velocity, and real parameter uncertainty: aerodynamic coefficient uncertainty and moment of inertia uncertainty. Using the developed LFT model and a formal robustness analysis method, a reliable flight regime is calculated for a transport aircraft closed-loop system.

Analytical models for coupling reliability in identical two-magnet systems during slow reversals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kani, Nickvash; Naeemi, Azad

2017-12-01

This paper follows previous works which investigated the strength of dipolar coupling in two-magnet systems. While those works focused on qualitative analyses, this manuscript elucidates reversal through dipolar coupling culminating in analytical expressions for reversal reliability in identical two-magnet systems. The dipolar field generated by a mono-domain magnetic body can be represented by a tensor containing both longitudinal and perpendicular field components; this field changes orientation and magnitude based on the magnetization of neighboring nanomagnets. While the dipolar field does reduce to its longitudinal component at short time-scales, for slow magnetization reversals, the simple longitudinal field representation greatly underestimates the scope of parameters that ensure reliable coupling. For the first time, analytical models that map the geometric and material parameters required for reliable coupling in two-magnet systems are developed. It is shown that in biaxial nanomagnets, the x ̂ and y ̂ components of the dipolar field contribute to the coupling, while all three dimensions contribute to the coupling between a pair of uniaxial magnets. Additionally, the ratio of the longitudinal and perpendicular components of the dipolar field is also very important. If the perpendicular components in the dipolar tensor are too large, the nanomagnet pair may come to rest in an undesirable meta-stable state away from the free axis. The analytical models formulated in this manuscript map the minimum and maximum parameters for reliable coupling. Using these models, it is shown that there is a very small range of material parameters which can facilitate reliable coupling between perpendicular-magnetic-anisotropy nanomagnets; hence, in-plane nanomagnets are more suitable for coupled systems.

The reliability of nonlinear least-squares algorithm for data analysis of neural response activity during sinusoidal rotational stimulation in semicircular canal neurons.

PubMed

Ren, Pengyu; Li, Bowen; Dong, Shiyao; Chen, Lin; Zhang, Yuelin

2018-01-01

Although many mathematical methods were used to analyze the neural activity under sinusoidal stimulation within linear response range in vestibular system, the reliabilities of these methods are still not reported, especially in nonlinear response range. Here we chose nonlinear least-squares algorithm (NLSA) with sinusoidal model to analyze the neural response of semicircular canal neurons (SCNs) during sinusoidal rotational stimulation (SRS) over a nonlinear response range. Our aim was to acquire a reliable mathematical method for data analysis under SRS in vestibular system. Our data indicated that the reliability of this method in an entire SCNs population was quite satisfactory. However, the reliability was strongly negatively depended on the neural discharge regularity. In addition, stimulation parameters were the vital impact factors influencing the reliability. The frequency had a significant negative effect but the amplitude had a conspicuous positive effect on the reliability. Thus, NLSA with sinusoidal model resulted a reliable mathematical tool for data analysis of neural response activity under SRS in vestibular system and more suitable for those under the stimulation with low frequency but high amplitude, suggesting that this method can be used in nonlinear response range. This method broke out of the restriction of neural activity analysis under nonlinear response range and provided a solid foundation for future study in nonlinear response range in vestibular system.

The reliability of nonlinear least-squares algorithm for data analysis of neural response activity during sinusoidal rotational stimulation in semicircular canal neurons

PubMed Central

Li, Bowen; Dong, Shiyao; Chen, Lin; Zhang, Yuelin

2018-01-01

Although many mathematical methods were used to analyze the neural activity under sinusoidal stimulation within linear response range in vestibular system, the reliabilities of these methods are still not reported, especially in nonlinear response range. Here we chose nonlinear least-squares algorithm (NLSA) with sinusoidal model to analyze the neural response of semicircular canal neurons (SCNs) during sinusoidal rotational stimulation (SRS) over a nonlinear response range. Our aim was to acquire a reliable mathematical method for data analysis under SRS in vestibular system. Our data indicated that the reliability of this method in an entire SCNs population was quite satisfactory. However, the reliability was strongly negatively depended on the neural discharge regularity. In addition, stimulation parameters were the vital impact factors influencing the reliability. The frequency had a significant negative effect but the amplitude had a conspicuous positive effect on the reliability. Thus, NLSA with sinusoidal model resulted a reliable mathematical tool for data analysis of neural response activity under SRS in vestibular system and more suitable for those under the stimulation with low frequency but high amplitude, suggesting that this method can be used in nonlinear response range. This method broke out of the restriction of neural activity analysis under nonlinear response range and provided a solid foundation for future study in nonlinear response range in vestibular system. PMID:29304173

RELAV - RELIABILITY/AVAILABILITY ANALYSIS PROGRAM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowerman, P. N.

1994-01-01

RELAV (Reliability/Availability Analysis Program) is a comprehensive analytical tool to determine the reliability or availability of any general system which can be modeled as embedded k-out-of-n groups of items (components) and/or subgroups. Both ground and flight systems at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory have utilized this program. RELAV can assess current system performance during the later testing phases of a system design, as well as model candidate designs/architectures or validate and form predictions during the early phases of a design. Systems are commonly modeled as System Block Diagrams (SBDs). RELAV calculates the success probability of each group of items and/or subgroups within the system assuming k-out-of-n operating rules apply for each group. The program operates on a folding basis; i.e. it works its way towards the system level from the most embedded level by folding related groups into single components. The entire folding process involves probabilities; therefore, availability problems are performed in terms of the probability of success, and reliability problems are performed for specific mission lengths. An enhanced cumulative binomial algorithm is used for groups where all probabilities are equal, while a fast algorithm based upon "Computing k-out-of-n System Reliability", Barlow & Heidtmann, IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON RELIABILITY, October 1984, is used for groups with unequal probabilities. Inputs to the program include a description of the system and any one of the following: 1) availabilities of the items, 2) mean time between failures and mean time to repairs for the items from which availabilities are calculated, 3) mean time between failures and mission length(s) from which reliabilities are calculated, or 4) failure rates and mission length(s) from which reliabilities are calculated. The results are probabilities of success of each group and the system in the given configuration. RELAV assumes exponential failure distributions for reliability calculations and infinite repair resources for availability calculations. No more than 967 items or groups can be modeled by RELAV. If larger problems can be broken into subsystems of 967 items or less, the subsystem results can be used as item inputs to a system problem. The calculated availabilities are steady-state values. Group results are presented in the order in which they were calculated (from the most embedded level out to the system level). This provides a good mechanism to perform trade studies. Starting from the system result and working backwards, the granularity gets finer; therefore, system elements that contribute most to system degradation are detected quickly. RELAV is a C-language program originally developed under the UNIX operating system on a MASSCOMP MC500 computer. It has been modified, as necessary, and ported to an IBM PC compatible with a math coprocessor. The current version of the program runs in the DOS environment and requires a Turbo C vers. 2.0 compiler. RELAV has a memory requirement of 103 KB and was developed in 1989. RELAV is a copyrighted work with all copyright vested in NASA.

Reliability measurement for mixed mode failures of 33/11 kilovolt electric power distribution stations.

PubMed

Alwan, Faris M; Baharum, Adam; Hassan, Geehan S

2013-01-01

The reliability of the electrical distribution system is a contemporary research field due to diverse applications of electricity in everyday life and diverse industries. However a few research papers exist in literature. This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the reliability of 33/11 Kilovolt high-power stations based on average time between failures. The objective of this paper is to find the optimal fit for the failure data via time between failures. We determine the parameter estimation for all components of the station. We also estimate the reliability value of each component and the reliability value of the system as a whole. The best fitting distribution for the time between failures is a three parameter Dagum distribution with a scale parameter [Formula: see text] and shape parameters [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. Our analysis reveals that the reliability value decreased by 38.2% in each 30 days. We believe that the current paper is the first to address this issue and its analysis. Thus, the results obtained in this research reflect its originality. We also suggest the practicality of using these results for power systems for both the maintenance of power systems models and preventive maintenance models.

Reliability Measurement for Mixed Mode Failures of 33/11 Kilovolt Electric Power Distribution Stations

PubMed Central

Alwan, Faris M.; Baharum, Adam; Hassan, Geehan S.

2013-01-01

The reliability of the electrical distribution system is a contemporary research field due to diverse applications of electricity in everyday life and diverse industries. However a few research papers exist in literature. This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the reliability of 33/11 Kilovolt high-power stations based on average time between failures. The objective of this paper is to find the optimal fit for the failure data via time between failures. We determine the parameter estimation for all components of the station. We also estimate the reliability value of each component and the reliability value of the system as a whole. The best fitting distribution for the time between failures is a three parameter Dagum distribution with a scale parameter and shape parameters and . Our analysis reveals that the reliability value decreased by 38.2% in each 30 days. We believe that the current paper is the first to address this issue and its analysis. Thus, the results obtained in this research reflect its originality. We also suggest the practicality of using these results for power systems for both the maintenance of power systems models and preventive maintenance models. PMID:23936346

Measurement-based reliability/performability models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hsueh, Mei-Chen

1987-01-01

Measurement-based models based on real error-data collected on a multiprocessor system are described. Model development from the raw error-data to the estimation of cumulative reward is also described. A workload/reliability model is developed based on low-level error and resource usage data collected on an IBM 3081 system during its normal operation in order to evaluate the resource usage/error/recovery process in a large mainframe system. Thus, both normal and erroneous behavior of the system are modeled. The results provide an understanding of the different types of errors and recovery processes. The measured data show that the holding times in key operational and error states are not simple exponentials and that a semi-Markov process is necessary to model the system behavior. A sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the significance of using a semi-Markov process, as opposed to a Markov process, to model the measured system.

Study on Distribution Reliability with Parallel and On-site Distributed Generation Considering Protection Miscoordination and Tie Line

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaitusaney, Surachai; Yokoyama, Akihiko

In distribution system, Distributed Generation (DG) is expected to improve the system reliability as its backup generation. However, DG contribution in fault current may cause the loss of the existing protection coordination, e.g. recloser-fuse coordination and breaker-breaker coordination. This problem can drastically deteriorate the system reliability, and it is more serious and complicated when there are several DG sources in the system. Hence, the above conflict in reliability aspect unavoidably needs a detailed investigation before the installation or enhancement of DG is done. The model of composite DG fault current is proposed to find the threshold beyond which existing protection coordination is lost. Cases of protection miscoordination are described, together with their consequences. Since a distribution system may be tied with another system, the issues of tie line and on-site DG are integrated into this study. Reliability indices are evaluated and compared in the distribution reliability test system RBTS Bus 2.

Data Applicability of Heritage and New Hardware for Launch Vehicle System Reliability Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Al Hassan Mohammad; Novack, Steven

2015-01-01

Many launch vehicle systems are designed and developed using heritage and new hardware. In most cases, the heritage hardware undergoes modifications to fit new functional system requirements, impacting the failure rates and, ultimately, the reliability data. New hardware, which lacks historical data, is often compared to like systems when estimating failure rates. Some qualification of applicability for the data source to the current system should be made. Accurately characterizing the reliability data applicability and quality under these circumstances is crucial to developing model estimations that support confident decisions on design changes and trade studies. This presentation will demonstrate a data-source classification method that ranks reliability data according to applicability and quality criteria to a new launch vehicle. This method accounts for similarities/dissimilarities in source and applicability, as well as operating environments like vibrations, acoustic regime, and shock. This classification approach will be followed by uncertainty-importance routines to assess the need for additional data to reduce uncertainty.

Sustainable, Reliable Mission-Systems Architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

O'Neil, Graham; Orr, James K.; Watson, Steve

2005-01-01

A mission-systems architecture, based on a highly modular infrastructure utilizing open-standards hardware and software interfaces as the enabling technology is essential for affordable md sustainable space exploration programs. This mission-systems architecture requires (8) robust communication between heterogeneous systems, (b) high reliability, (c) minimal mission-to-mission reconfiguration, (d) affordable development, system integration, end verification of systems, and (e) minimal sustaining engineering. This paper proposes such an architecture. Lessons learned from the Space Shuttle program and Earthbound complex engineered systems are applied to define the model. Technology projections reaching out 5 years are made to refine model details.

Sustainable, Reliable Mission-Systems Architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

O'Neil, Graham; Orr, James K.; Watson, Steve

2007-01-01

A mission-systems architecture, based on a highly modular infrastructure utilizing: open-standards hardware and software interfaces as the enabling technology is essential for affordable and sustainable space exploration programs. This mission-systems architecture requires (a) robust communication between heterogeneous system, (b) high reliability, (c) minimal mission-to-mission reconfiguration, (d) affordable development, system integration, and verification of systems, and (e) minimal sustaining engineering. This paper proposes such an architecture. Lessons learned from the Space Shuttle program and Earthbound complex engineered system are applied to define the model. Technology projections reaching out 5 years are mde to refine model details.

A Review on VSC-HVDC Reliability Modeling and Evaluation Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, L.; Tang, Q.; Li, T.; Wang, Y.; Song, F.

2017-05-01

With the fast development of power electronics, voltage-source converter (VSC) HVDC technology presents cost-effective ways for bulk power transmission. An increasing number of VSC-HVDC projects has been installed worldwide. Their reliability affects the profitability of the system and therefore has a major impact on the potential investors. In this paper, an overview of the recent advances in the area of reliability evaluation for VSC-HVDC systems is provided. Taken into account the latest multi-level converter topology, the VSC-HVDC system is categorized into several sub-systems and the reliability data for the key components is discussed based on sources with academic and industrial backgrounds. The development of reliability evaluation methodologies is reviewed and the issues surrounding the different computation approaches are briefly analysed. A general VSC-HVDC reliability evaluation procedure is illustrated in this paper.

Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment in operational oil spill forecast modeling system.

PubMed

Hou, Xianlong; Hodges, Ben R; Feng, Dongyu; Liu, Qixiao

2017-03-15

As oil transport increasing in the Texas bays, greater risks of ship collisions will become a challenge, yielding oil spill accidents as a consequence. To minimize the ecological damage and optimize rapid response, emergency managers need to be informed with how fast and where oil will spread as soon as possible after a spill. The state-of-the-art operational oil spill forecast modeling system improves the oil spill response into a new stage. However uncertainty due to predicted data inputs often elicits compromise on the reliability of the forecast result, leading to misdirection in contingency planning. Thus understanding the forecast uncertainty and reliability become significant. In this paper, Monte Carlo simulation is implemented to provide parameters to generate forecast probability maps. The oil spill forecast uncertainty is thus quantified by comparing the forecast probability map and the associated hindcast simulation. A HyosPy-based simple statistic model is developed to assess the reliability of an oil spill forecast in term of belief degree. The technologies developed in this study create a prototype for uncertainty and reliability analysis in numerical oil spill forecast modeling system, providing emergency managers to improve the capability of real time operational oil spill response and impact assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Culture Representation in Human Reliability Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

David Gertman; Julie Marble; Steven Novack

Understanding human-system response is critical to being able to plan and predict mission success in the modern battlespace. Commonly, human reliability analysis has been used to predict failures of human performance in complex, critical systems. However, most human reliability methods fail to take culture into account. This paper takes an easily understood state of the art human reliability analysis method and extends that method to account for the influence of culture, including acceptance of new technology, upon performance. The cultural parameters used to modify the human reliability analysis were determined from two standard industry approaches to cultural assessment: Hofstede’s (1991)more » cultural factors and Davis’ (1989) technology acceptance model (TAM). The result is called the Culture Adjustment Method (CAM). An example is presented that (1) reviews human reliability assessment with and without cultural attributes for a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system attack, (2) demonstrates how country specific information can be used to increase the realism of HRA modeling, and (3) discusses the differences in human error probability estimates arising from cultural differences.« less

Failure rate and reliability of the KOMATSU hydraulic excavator in surface limestone mine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harish Kumar N., S.; Choudhary, R. P.; Murthy, Ch. S. N.

2018-04-01

The model with failure rate function of bathtub-shaped is helpful in reliability analysis of any system and particularly in reliability associated privative maintenance. The usual Weibull distribution is, however, not capable to model the complete lifecycle of the any with a bathtub-shaped failure rate function. In this paper, failure rate and reliability analysis of the KOMATSU hydraulic excavator/shovel in surface mine is presented and also to improve the reliability and decrease the failure rate of each subsystem of the shovel based on the preventive maintenance. The model of the bathtub-shaped for shovel can also be seen as a simplification of the Weibull distribution.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Godwin, Aaron

The scope will be limited to analyzing the effect of the EFC within the system and how one improperly installed coupling affects the rest of the HPFL system. The discussion will include normal operations, impaired flow, and service interruptions. Normal operations are defined as two-way flow to buildings. Impaired operations are defined as a building that only has one-way flow being provided to the building. Service interruptions will be when a building does not have water available to it. The project will look at the following aspects of the reliability of the HPFL system: mean time to failure (MTTF) ofmore » EFCs, mean time between failures (MTBF), series system models, and parallel system models. These calculations will then be used to discuss the reliability of the system when one of the couplings fails. Compare the reliability of two-way feeds versus one-way feeds.« less

Real-time emergency forecasting technique for situation management systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopytov, V. V.; Kharechkin, P. V.; Naumenko, V. V.; Tretyak, R. S.; Tebueva, F. B.

2018-05-01

The article describes the real-time emergency forecasting technique that allows increasing accuracy and reliability of forecasting results of any emergency computational model applied for decision making in situation management systems. Computational models are improved by the Improved Brown’s method applying fractal dimension to forecast short time series data being received from sensors and control systems. Reliability of emergency forecasting results is ensured by the invalid sensed data filtering according to the methods of correlation analysis.

Reliability of digital reactor protection system based on extenics.

PubMed

Zhao, Jing; He, Ya-Nan; Gu, Peng-Fei; Chen, Wei-Hua; Gao, Feng

2016-01-01

After the Fukushima nuclear accident, safety of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is widespread concerned. The reliability of reactor protection system (RPS) is directly related to the safety of NPPs, however, it is difficult to accurately evaluate the reliability of digital RPS. The method is based on estimating probability has some uncertainties, which can not reflect the reliability status of RPS dynamically and support the maintenance and troubleshooting. In this paper, the reliability quantitative analysis method based on extenics is proposed for the digital RPS (safety-critical), by which the relationship between the reliability and response time of RPS is constructed. The reliability of the RPS for CPR1000 NPP is modeled and analyzed by the proposed method as an example. The results show that the proposed method is capable to estimate the RPS reliability effectively and provide support to maintenance and troubleshooting of digital RPS system.

Two tradeoffs between economy and reliability in loss of load probability constrained unit commitment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yuan; Wang, Mingqiang; Ning, Xingyao

2018-02-01

Spinning reserve (SR) should be scheduled considering the balance between economy and reliability. To address the computational intractability cursed by the computation of loss of load probability (LOLP), many probabilistic methods use simplified formulations of LOLP to improve the computational efficiency. Two tradeoffs embedded in the SR optimization model are not explicitly analyzed in these methods. In this paper, two tradeoffs including primary tradeoff and secondary tradeoff between economy and reliability in the maximum LOLP constrained unit commitment (UC) model are explored and analyzed in a small system and in IEEE-RTS System. The analysis on the two tradeoffs can help in establishing new efficient simplified LOLP formulations and new SR optimization models.

A new method for computing the reliability of consecutive k-out-of-n:F systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gökdere, Gökhan; Gürcan, Mehmet; Kılıç, Muhammet Burak

2016-01-01

In many physical systems, reliability evaluation, such as ones encountered in telecommunications, the design of integrated circuits, microwave relay stations, oil pipeline systems, vacuum systems in accelerators, computer ring networks, and spacecraft relay stations, have had applied consecutive k-out-of-n system models. These systems are characterized as logical connections among the components of the systems placed in lines or circles. In literature, a great deal of attention has been paid to the study of the reliability evaluation of consecutive k-out-of-n systems. In this paper, we propose a new method to compute the reliability of consecutive k-out-of-n:F systems, with n linearly and circularly arranged components. The proposed method provides a simple way for determining the system failure probability. Also, we write R-Project codes based on our proposed method to compute the reliability of the linear and circular systems which have a great number of components.

The welfare effects of integrating renewable energy into electricity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamadrid, Alberto J.

The challenges of deploying more renewable energy sources on an electric grid are caused largely by their inherent variability. In this context, energy storage can help make the electric delivery system more reliable by mitigating this variability. This thesis analyzes a series of models for procuring electricity and ancillary services for both individuals and social planners with high penetrations of stochastic wind energy. The results obtained for an individual decision maker using stochastic optimization are ambiguous, with closed form solutions dependent on technological parameters, and no consideration of the system reliability. The social planner models correctly reflect the effect of system reliability, and in the case of a Stochastic, Security Constrained Optimal Power Flow (S-SC-OPF or SuperOPF), determine reserve capacity endogenously so that system reliability is maintained. A single-period SuperOPF shows that including ramping costs in the objective function leads to more wind spilling and increased capacity requirements for reliability. However, this model does not reflect the inter temporal tradeoffs of using Energy Storage Systems (ESS) to improve reliability and mitigate wind variability. The results with the multiperiod SuperOPF determine the optimum use of storage for a typical day, and compare the effects of collocating ESS at wind sites with the same amount of storage (deferrable demand) located at demand centers. The collocated ESS has slightly lower operating costs and spills less wind generation compared to deferrable demand, but the total amount of conventional generating capacity needed for system adequacy is higher. In terms of the total system costs, that include the capital cost of conventional generating capacity, the costs with deferrable demand is substantially lower because the daily demand profile is flattened and less conventional generation capacity is then needed for reliability purposes. The analysis also demonstrates that the optimum daily pattern of dispatch and reserves is seriously distorted if the stochastic characteristics of wind generation are ignored.

Fault tree models for fault tolerant hypercube multiprocessors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyd, Mark A.; Tuazon, Jezus O.

1991-01-01

Three candidate fault tolerant hypercube architectures are modeled, their reliability analyses are compared, and the resulting implications of these methods of incorporating fault tolerance into hypercube multiprocessors are discussed. In the course of performing the reliability analyses, the use of HARP and fault trees in modeling sequence dependent system behaviors is demonstrated.

Network reliability maximization for stochastic-flow network subject to correlated failures using genetic algorithm and tabu\\xA0search

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeh, Cheng-Ta; Lin, Yi-Kuei; Yang, Jo-Yun

2018-07-01

Network reliability is an important performance index for many real-life systems, such as electric power systems, computer systems and transportation systems. These systems can be modelled as stochastic-flow networks (SFNs) composed of arcs and nodes. Most system supervisors respect the network reliability maximization by finding the optimal multi-state resource assignment, which is one resource to each arc. However, a disaster may cause correlated failures for the assigned resources, affecting the network reliability. This article focuses on determining the optimal resource assignment with maximal network reliability for SFNs. To solve the problem, this study proposes a hybrid algorithm integrating the genetic algorithm and tabu search to determine the optimal assignment, called the hybrid GA-TS algorithm (HGTA), and integrates minimal paths, recursive sum of disjoint products and the correlated binomial distribution to calculate network reliability. Several practical numerical experiments are adopted to demonstrate that HGTA has better computational quality than several popular soft computing algorithms.

Model-centric distribution automation: Capacity, reliability, and efficiency

DOE PAGES

Onen, Ahmet; Jung, Jaesung; Dilek, Murat; ...

2016-02-26

A series of analyses along with field validations that evaluate efficiency, reliability, and capacity improvements of model-centric distribution automation are presented. With model-centric distribution automation, the same model is used from design to real-time control calculations. A 14-feeder system with 7 substations is considered. The analyses involve hourly time-varying loads and annual load growth factors. Phase balancing and capacitor redesign modifications are used to better prepare the system for distribution automation, where the designs are performed considering time-varying loads. Coordinated control of load tap changing transformers, line regulators, and switched capacitor banks is considered. In evaluating distribution automation versus traditionalmore » system design and operation, quasi-steady-state power flow analysis is used. In evaluating distribution automation performance for substation transformer failures, reconfiguration for restoration analysis is performed. In evaluating distribution automation for storm conditions, Monte Carlo simulations coupled with reconfiguration for restoration calculations are used. As a result, the evaluations demonstrate that model-centric distribution automation has positive effects on system efficiency, capacity, and reliability.« less

Model-centric distribution automation: Capacity, reliability, and efficiency

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Onen, Ahmet; Jung, Jaesung; Dilek, Murat

A series of analyses along with field validations that evaluate efficiency, reliability, and capacity improvements of model-centric distribution automation are presented. With model-centric distribution automation, the same model is used from design to real-time control calculations. A 14-feeder system with 7 substations is considered. The analyses involve hourly time-varying loads and annual load growth factors. Phase balancing and capacitor redesign modifications are used to better prepare the system for distribution automation, where the designs are performed considering time-varying loads. Coordinated control of load tap changing transformers, line regulators, and switched capacitor banks is considered. In evaluating distribution automation versus traditionalmore » system design and operation, quasi-steady-state power flow analysis is used. In evaluating distribution automation performance for substation transformer failures, reconfiguration for restoration analysis is performed. In evaluating distribution automation for storm conditions, Monte Carlo simulations coupled with reconfiguration for restoration calculations are used. As a result, the evaluations demonstrate that model-centric distribution automation has positive effects on system efficiency, capacity, and reliability.« less

A reliability analysis tool for SpaceWire network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Qiang; Zhu, Longjiang; Fei, Haidong; Wang, Xingyou

2017-04-01

A SpaceWire is a standard for on-board satellite networks as the basis for future data-handling architectures. It is becoming more and more popular in space applications due to its technical advantages, including reliability, low power and fault protection, etc. High reliability is the vital issue for spacecraft. Therefore, it is very important to analyze and improve the reliability performance of the SpaceWire network. This paper deals with the problem of reliability modeling and analysis with SpaceWire network. According to the function division of distributed network, a reliability analysis method based on a task is proposed, the reliability analysis of every task can lead to the system reliability matrix, the reliability result of the network system can be deduced by integrating these entire reliability indexes in the matrix. With the method, we develop a reliability analysis tool for SpaceWire Network based on VC, where the computation schemes for reliability matrix and the multi-path-task reliability are also implemented. By using this tool, we analyze several cases on typical architectures. And the analytic results indicate that redundancy architecture has better reliability performance than basic one. In practical, the dual redundancy scheme has been adopted for some key unit, to improve the reliability index of the system or task. Finally, this reliability analysis tool will has a directive influence on both task division and topology selection in the phase of SpaceWire network system design.

Development of modelling algorithm of technological systems by statistical tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shemshura, E. A.; Otrokov, A. V.; Chernyh, V. G.

2018-03-01

The paper tackles the problem of economic assessment of design efficiency regarding various technological systems at the stage of their operation. The modelling algorithm of a technological system was performed using statistical tests and with account of the reliability index allows estimating the level of machinery technical excellence and defining the efficiency of design reliability against its performance. Economic feasibility of its application shall be determined on the basis of service quality of a technological system with further forecasting of volumes and the range of spare parts supply.

On the matter of the reliability of the chemical monitoring system based on the modern control and monitoring devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andriushin, A. V.; Dolbikova, N. S.; Kiet, S. V.; Merzlikina, E. I.; Nikitina, I. S.

2017-11-01

The reliability of the main equipment of any power station depends on the correct water chemistry. In order to provide it, it is necessary to monitor the heat carrier quality, which, in its turn, is provided by the chemical monitoring system. Thus, the monitoring system reliability plays an important part in providing reliability of the main equipment. The monitoring system reliability is determined by the reliability and structure of its hardware and software consisting of sensors, controllers, HMI and so on [1,2]. Workers of a power plant dealing with the measuring equipment must be informed promptly about any breakdowns in the monitoring system, in this case they are able to remove the fault quickly. A computer consultant system for personnel maintaining the sensors and other chemical monitoring equipment can help to notice faults quickly and identify their possible causes. Some technical solutions for such a system are considered in the present paper. The experimental results were obtained on the laboratory and experimental workbench representing a physical model of a part of the chemical monitoring system.

The Challenges of Credible Thermal Protection System Reliability Quantification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, Lawrence L.

2013-01-01

The paper discusses several of the challenges associated with developing a credible reliability estimate for a human-rated crew capsule thermal protection system. The process of developing such a credible estimate is subject to the quantification, modeling and propagation of numerous uncertainties within a probabilistic analysis. The development of specific investment recommendations, to improve the reliability prediction, among various potential testing and programmatic options is then accomplished through Bayesian analysis.

Multidisciplinary System Reliability Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahadevan, Sankaran; Han, Song; Chamis, Christos C. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology for estimating the reliability of engineering systems that encompass multiple disciplines. The methodology is formulated in the context of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis code, developed under the leadership of NASA Glenn Research Center. The NESSUS code has been successfully applied to the reliability estimation of a variety of structural engineering systems. This study examines whether the features of NESSUS could be used to investigate the reliability of systems in other disciplines such as heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electrical circuits etc., without considerable programming effort specific to each discipline. In this study, the mechanical equivalence between system behavior models in different disciplines are investigated to achieve this objective. A new methodology is presented for the analysis of heat transfer, fluid flow, and electrical circuit problems using the structural analysis routines within NESSUS, by utilizing the equivalence between the computational quantities in different disciplines. This technique is integrated with the fast probability integration and system reliability techniques within the NESSUS code, to successfully compute the system reliability of multidisciplinary systems. Traditional as well as progressive failure analysis methods for system reliability estimation are demonstrated, through a numerical example of a heat exchanger system involving failure modes in structural, heat transfer and fluid flow disciplines.

Multi-Disciplinary System Reliability Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahadevan, Sankaran; Han, Song

1997-01-01

The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology for estimating the reliability of engineering systems that encompass multiple disciplines. The methodology is formulated in the context of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis code developed under the leadership of NASA Lewis Research Center. The NESSUS code has been successfully applied to the reliability estimation of a variety of structural engineering systems. This study examines whether the features of NESSUS could be used to investigate the reliability of systems in other disciplines such as heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electrical circuits etc., without considerable programming effort specific to each discipline. In this study, the mechanical equivalence between system behavior models in different disciplines are investigated to achieve this objective. A new methodology is presented for the analysis of heat transfer, fluid flow, and electrical circuit problems using the structural analysis routines within NESSUS, by utilizing the equivalence between the computational quantities in different disciplines. This technique is integrated with the fast probability integration and system reliability techniques within the NESSUS code, to successfully compute the system reliability of multi-disciplinary systems. Traditional as well as progressive failure analysis methods for system reliability estimation are demonstrated, through a numerical example of a heat exchanger system involving failure modes in structural, heat transfer and fluid flow disciplines.

A rainwater harvesting system reliability model based on nonparametric stochastic rainfall generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basinger, Matt; Montalto, Franco; Lall, Upmanu

2010-10-01

SummaryThe reliability with which harvested rainwater can be used as a means of flushing toilets, irrigating gardens, and topping off air-conditioner serving multifamily residential buildings in New York City is assessed using a new rainwater harvesting (RWH) system reliability model. Although demonstrated with a specific case study, the model is portable because it is based on a nonparametric rainfall generation procedure utilizing a bootstrapped markov chain. Precipitation occurrence is simulated using transition probabilities derived for each day of the year based on the historical probability of wet and dry day state changes. Precipitation amounts are selected from a matrix of historical values within a moving 15 day window that is centered on the target day. RWH system reliability is determined for user-specified catchment area and tank volume ranges using precipitation ensembles generated using the described stochastic procedure. The reliability with which NYC backyard gardens can be irrigated and air conditioning units supplied with water harvested from local roofs exceeds 80% and 90%, respectively, for the entire range of catchment areas and tank volumes considered in the analysis. For RWH systems installed on the most commonly occurring rooftop catchment areas found in NYC (51-75 m 2), toilet flushing demand can be met with 7-40% reliability, with lower end of the range representing buildings with high flow toilets and no storage elements, and the upper end representing buildings that feature low flow fixtures and storage tanks of up to 5 m 3. When the reliability curves developed are used to size RWH systems to flush the low flow toilets of all multifamily buildings found a typical residential neighborhood in the Bronx, rooftop runoff inputs to the sewer system are reduced by approximately 28% over an average rainfall year, and potable water demand is reduced by approximately 53%.

Electric system restructuring and system reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horiuchi, Catherine Miller

In 1996 the California legislature passed AB 1890, explicitly defining economic benefits and detailing specific mechanisms for initiating a partial restructuring the state's electric system. Critics have since sought re-regulation and proponents have asked for patience as the new institutions and markets take shape. Other states' electric system restructuring activities have been tempered by real and perceived problems in the California model. This study examines the reduced regulatory controls and new constraints introduced in California's limited restructuring model using utility and regulatory agency records from the 1990's to investigate effects of new institutions and practices on system reliability for the state's five largest public and private utilities. Logit and negative binomial regressions indicate negative impact from the California model of restructuring on system reliability as measured by customer interruptions. Time series analysis of outage data could not predict the wholesale power market collapse and the subsequent rolling blackouts in early 2001; inclusion of near-outage reliability disturbances---load shedding and energy emergencies---provided a measure of forewarning. Analysis of system disruptions, generation capacity and demand, and the role of purchased power challenge conventional wisdom on the causality of Californian's power problems. The quantitative analysis was supplemented by a targeted survey of electric system restructuring participants. Findings suggest each utility and the organization controlling the state's electric grid provided protection from power outages comparable to pre-restructuring operations through 2000; however, this reliability has come at an inflated cost, resulting in reduced system purchases and decreased marginal protection. The historic margin of operating safety has fully eroded, increasing mandatory load shedding and emergency declarations for voluntary and mandatory conservation. Proposed remedies focused on state-funded contracts and government-managed power authorities may not help, as the findings suggest pricing models, market uncertainty, interjurisdictional conflict and an inability to respond to market perturbations are more significant contributors to reduced regional generation availability than the particular contract mechanisms and funding sources used for power purchases.

Reliability Analysis of Sealing Structure of Electromechanical System Based on Kriging Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, F.; Wang, Y. M.; Chen, R. W.; Deng, W. W.; Gao, Y.

2018-05-01

The sealing performance of aircraft electromechanical system has a great influence on flight safety, and the reliability of its typical seal structure is analyzed by researcher. In this paper, we regard reciprocating seal structure as a research object to study structural reliability. Having been based on the finite element numerical simulation method, the contact stress between the rubber sealing ring and the cylinder wall is calculated, and the relationship between the contact stress and the pressure of the hydraulic medium is built, and the friction force on different working conditions are compared. Through the co-simulation, the adaptive Kriging model obtained by EFF learning mechanism is used to describe the failure probability of the seal ring, so as to evaluate the reliability of the sealing structure. This article proposes a new idea of numerical evaluation for the reliability analysis of sealing structure, and also provides a theoretical basis for the optimal design of sealing structure.

76 FR 28819 - NUREG/CR-XXXX, Development of Quantitative Software Reliability Models for Digital Protection...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-18

... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2011-0109] NUREG/CR-XXXX, Development of Quantitative Software..., ``Development of Quantitative Software Reliability Models for Digital Protection Systems of Nuclear Power Plants... of Risk Analysis, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission...

Optimum testing intervals of building emergency power supply systems in tall buildings in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwok, Yu Fat

The main objective of this study is to develop a model for the determination of optimum testing interval (OTI) of non-redundant standby plants. This study focuses on the emergency power generators in tall buildings in Hong Kong. The model for the reliability, which is developed, is applicable to any non-duplicated standby plant. In a tall building, the mobilisation of occupants is constrained by its height and the building internal layout. Occupant's safety, amongst other safety considerations, highly depends on the reliability of the fire detection and protection system, which in turn is dependent on the reliability of the emergency power generation plants. A thorough literature survey shows that the practice used in determining OTI in nuclear plants is generally applicable. Historically, the OTI in these plants is determined by balancing the testing downtime and reliability gained from frequent testing. However, testing downtime does not exist in plants like emergency power generator. Subsequently, sophisticated models have taken repairing downtime into consideration. In this study, the algorithms for the determination of OTI, and hence reliability of standby plants, are reconsidered. A new concept is introduced into the subject. A new model is developed for such purposes which embraces more realistic factors found in practice. System aging and the finite life cycle of the standby plant are considered. Somewhat more pragmatic is that the Optimum Overhauling Interval can also be determined from this new model. System unavailability grow with time, but can be reset by test or overhaul. Contrary to fixed testing intervals, OTI is determined whenever system point unavailability exceeds certain level, which depends on the reliability requirement of the standby system. An optimum testing plan for lowering this level to the 'minimum useful unavailability' level (see section 9.1 for more elaboration) can be determined by the new model presented. Cost effectiveness is accounted for by a new parameter 'tau min', the minimum testing interval (MTI). The MTI optimises the total number of tests and the total number of overhauls, when the costs for each are available. The model sets up criteria for test and overhaul and to 'announce' end of system life. The usefulness of the model is validated by a detailed analysis of the operating parameters from 8,500 maintenance records collected for emergency power generation plants in high rise buildings in Hong Kong. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Engine System Model Development for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, Karl W.; Simpson, Steven P.

2006-01-01

In order to design, analyze, and evaluate conceptual Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) engine systems, an improved NTP design and analysis tool has been developed. The NTP tool utilizes the Rocket Engine Transient Simulation (ROCETS) system tool and many of the routines from the Enabler reactor model found in Nuclear Engine System Simulation (NESS). Improved non-nuclear component models and an external shield model were added to the tool. With the addition of a nearly complete system reliability model, the tool will provide performance, sizing, and reliability data for NERVA-Derived NTP engine systems. A new detailed reactor model is also being developed and will replace Enabler. The new model will allow more flexibility in reactor geometry and include detailed thermal hydraulics and neutronics models. A description of the reactor, component, and reliability models is provided. Another key feature of the modeling process is the use of comprehensive spreadsheets for each engine case. The spreadsheets include individual worksheets for each subsystem with data, plots, and scaled figures, making the output very useful to each engineering discipline. Sample performance and sizing results with the Enabler reactor model are provided including sensitivities. Before selecting an engine design, all figures of merit must be considered including the overall impacts on the vehicle and mission. Evaluations based on key figures of merit of these results and results with the new reactor model will be performed. The impacts of clustering and external shielding will also be addressed. Over time, the reactor model will be upgraded to design and analyze other NTP concepts with CERMET and carbide fuel cores.

Nuclear electric propulsion operational reliability and crew safety study: NEP systems/modeling report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karns, James

1993-01-01

The objective of this study was to establish the initial quantitative reliability bounds for nuclear electric propulsion systems in a manned Mars mission required to ensure crew safety and mission success. Finding the reliability bounds involves balancing top-down (mission driven) requirements and bottom-up (technology driven) capabilities. In seeking this balance we hope to accomplish the following: (1) provide design insights into the achievability of the baseline design in terms of reliability requirements, given the existing technology base; (2) suggest alternative design approaches which might enhance reliability and crew safety; and (3) indicate what technology areas require significant research and development to achieve the reliability objectives.

Modeling reality

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Denning, Peter J.

1990-01-01

Although powerful computers have allowed complex physical and manmade hardware systems to be modeled successfully, we have encountered persistent problems with the reliability of computer models for systems involving human learning, human action, and human organizations. This is not a misfortune; unlike physical and manmade systems, human systems do not operate under a fixed set of laws. The rules governing the actions allowable in the system can be changed without warning at any moment, and can evolve over time. That the governing laws are inherently unpredictable raises serious questions about the reliability of models when applied to human situations. In these domains, computers are better used, not for prediction and planning, but for aiding humans. Examples are systems that help humans speculate about possible futures, offer advice about possible actions in a domain, systems that gather information from the networks, and systems that track and support work flows in organizations.

Large-scale systems: Complexity, stability, reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Siljak, D. D.

1975-01-01

After showing that a complex dynamic system with a competitive structure has highly reliable stability, a class of noncompetitive dynamic systems for which competitive models can be constructed is defined. It is shown that such a construction is possible in the context of the hierarchic stability analysis. The scheme is based on the comparison principle and vector Liapunov functions.

Towards early software reliability prediction for computer forensic tools (case study).

PubMed

Abu Talib, Manar

2016-01-01

Versatility, flexibility and robustness are essential requirements for software forensic tools. Researchers and practitioners need to put more effort into assessing this type of tool. A Markov model is a robust means for analyzing and anticipating the functioning of an advanced component based system. It is used, for instance, to analyze the reliability of the state machines of real time reactive systems. This research extends the architecture-based software reliability prediction model for computer forensic tools, which is based on Markov chains and COSMIC-FFP. Basically, every part of the computer forensic tool is linked to a discrete time Markov chain. If this can be done, then a probabilistic analysis by Markov chains can be performed to analyze the reliability of the components and of the whole tool. The purposes of the proposed reliability assessment method are to evaluate the tool's reliability in the early phases of its development, to improve the reliability assessment process for large computer forensic tools over time, and to compare alternative tool designs. The reliability analysis can assist designers in choosing the most reliable topology for the components, which can maximize the reliability of the tool and meet the expected reliability level specified by the end-user. The approach of assessing component-based tool reliability in the COSMIC-FFP context is illustrated with the Forensic Toolkit Imager case study.

A Passive System Reliability Analysis for a Station Blackout

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brunett, Acacia; Bucknor, Matthew; Grabaskas, David

2015-05-03

The latest iterations of advanced reactor designs have included increased reliance on passive safety systems to maintain plant integrity during unplanned sequences. While these systems are advantageous in reducing the reliance on human intervention and availability of power, the phenomenological foundations on which these systems are built require a novel approach to a reliability assessment. Passive systems possess the unique ability to fail functionally without failing physically, a result of their explicit dependency on existing boundary conditions that drive their operating mode and capacity. Argonne National Laboratory is performing ongoing analyses that demonstrate various methodologies for the characterization of passivemore » system reliability within a probabilistic framework. Two reliability analysis techniques are utilized in this work. The first approach, the Reliability Method for Passive Systems, provides a mechanistic technique employing deterministic models and conventional static event trees. The second approach, a simulation-based technique, utilizes discrete dynamic event trees to treat time- dependent phenomena during scenario evolution. For this demonstration analysis, both reliability assessment techniques are used to analyze an extended station blackout in a pool-type sodium fast reactor (SFR) coupled with a reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS). This work demonstrates the entire process of a passive system reliability analysis, including identification of important parameters and failure metrics, treatment of uncertainties and analysis of results.« less

Probabilistic Finite Element Analysis & Design Optimization for Structural Designs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deivanayagam, Arumugam

This study focuses on implementing probabilistic nature of material properties (Kevlar® 49) to the existing deterministic finite element analysis (FEA) of fabric based engine containment system through Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) and implementation of probabilistic analysis in engineering designs through Reliability Based Design Optimization (RBDO). First, the emphasis is on experimental data analysis focusing on probabilistic distribution models which characterize the randomness associated with the experimental data. The material properties of Kevlar® 49 are modeled using experimental data analysis and implemented along with an existing spiral modeling scheme (SMS) and user defined constitutive model (UMAT) for fabric based engine containment simulations in LS-DYNA. MCS of the model are performed to observe the failure pattern and exit velocities of the models. Then the solutions are compared with NASA experimental tests and deterministic results. MCS with probabilistic material data give a good prospective on results rather than a single deterministic simulation results. The next part of research is to implement the probabilistic material properties in engineering designs. The main aim of structural design is to obtain optimal solutions. In any case, in a deterministic optimization problem even though the structures are cost effective, it becomes highly unreliable if the uncertainty that may be associated with the system (material properties, loading etc.) is not represented or considered in the solution process. Reliable and optimal solution can be obtained by performing reliability optimization along with the deterministic optimization, which is RBDO. In RBDO problem formulation, in addition to structural performance constraints, reliability constraints are also considered. This part of research starts with introduction to reliability analysis such as first order reliability analysis, second order reliability analysis followed by simulation technique that are performed to obtain probability of failure and reliability of structures. Next, decoupled RBDO procedure is proposed with a new reliability analysis formulation with sensitivity analysis, which is performed to remove the highly reliable constraints in the RBDO, thereby reducing the computational time and function evaluations. Followed by implementation of the reliability analysis concepts and RBDO in finite element 2D truss problems and a planar beam problem are presented and discussed.

Integrated material state awareness system with self-learning symbiotic diagnostic algorithms and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banerjee, Sourav; Liu, Lie; Liu, S. T.; Yuan, Fuh-Gwo; Beard, Shawn

2011-04-01

Materials State Awareness (MSA) goes beyond traditional NDE and SHM in its challenge to characterize the current state of material damage before the onset of macro-damage such as cracks. A highly reliable, minimally invasive system for MSA of Aerospace Structures, Naval structures as well as next generation space systems is critically needed. Development of such a system will require a reliable SHM system that can detect the onset of damage well before the flaw grows to a critical size. Therefore, it is important to develop an integrated SHM system that not only detects macroscale damages in the structures but also provides an early indication of flaw precursors and microdamages. The early warning for flaw precursors and their evolution provided by an SHM system can then be used to define remedial strategies before the structural damage leads to failure, and significantly improve the safety and reliability of the structures. Thus, in this article a preliminary concept of developing the Hybrid Distributed Sensor Network Integrated with Self-learning Symbiotic Diagnostic Algorithms and Models to accurately and reliably detect the precursors to damages that occur to the structure are discussed. Experiments conducted in a laboratory environment shows potential of the proposed technique.

Experiments in fault tolerant software reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcallister, David F.; Tai, K. C.; Vouk, Mladen A.

1987-01-01

The reliability of voting was evaluated in a fault-tolerant software system for small output spaces. The effectiveness of the back-to-back testing process was investigated. Version 3.0 of the RSDIMU-ATS, a semi-automated test bed for certification testing of RSDIMU software, was prepared and distributed. Software reliability estimation methods based on non-random sampling are being studied. The investigation of existing fault-tolerance models was continued and formulation of new models was initiated.

A quantitative analysis of the F18 flight control system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doyle, Stacy A.; Dugan, Joanne B.; Patterson-Hine, Ann

1993-01-01

This paper presents an informal quantitative analysis of the F18 flight control system (FCS). The analysis technique combines a coverage model with a fault tree model. To demonstrate the method's extensive capabilities, we replace the fault tree with a digraph model of the F18 FCS, the only model available to us. The substitution shows that while digraphs have primarily been used for qualitative analysis, they can also be used for quantitative analysis. Based on our assumptions and the particular failure rates assigned to the F18 FCS components, we show that coverage does have a significant effect on the system's reliability and thus it is important to include coverage in the reliability analysis.

Analyzing Test-As-You-Fly Single Event Upset (SEU) Responses using SEU Data, Classical Reliability Models, and Space Environment Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berg, Melanie; Label, Kenneth; Campola, Michael; Xapsos, Michael

2017-01-01

We propose a method for the application of single event upset (SEU) data towards the analysis of complex systems using transformed reliability models (from the time domain to the particle fluence domain) and space environment data.

Effective Measurement of Reliability of Repairable USAF Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

Hansen presented a course, Concepts and Models for Repairable Systems Reliability, at the 2009 Centro de Investigacion en Mathematicas ( CIMAT ). The...recurrent event by calculating the mean quantity of recurrent events of the population of systems at risk at that point in time. The number of systems at... risk is the number of systems that are operating and providing information. [9] Information can be obscured by data censoring and truncation. One

An Online Risk Monitor System (ORMS) to Increase Safety and Security Levels in Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zubair, M.; Rahman, Khalil Ur; Hassan, Mehmood Ul

2013-12-01

The main idea of this research is to develop an Online Risk Monitor System (ORMS) based on Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (LPSA). The article highlights the essential features and functions of ORMS. The basic models and modules such as, Reliability Data Update Model (RDUM), running time update, redundant system unavailability update, Engineered Safety Features (ESF) unavailability update and general system update have been described in this study. ORMS not only provides quantitative analysis but also highlights qualitative aspects of risk measures. ORMS is capable of automatically updating the online risk models and reliability parameters of equipment. ORMS can support in the decision making process of operators and managers in Nuclear Power Plants.

Structural reliability assessment capability in NESSUS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Millwater, H.; Wu, Y.-T.

1992-01-01

The principal capabilities of NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress), an advanced computer code developed for probabilistic structural response analysis, are reviewed, and its structural reliability assessed. The code combines flexible structural modeling tools with advanced probabilistic algorithms in order to compute probabilistic structural response and resistance, component reliability and risk, and system reliability and risk. An illustrative numerical example is presented.

Structural reliability assessment capability in NESSUS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millwater, H.; Wu, Y.-T.

1992-07-01

The principal capabilities of NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress), an advanced computer code developed for probabilistic structural response analysis, are reviewed, and its structural reliability assessed. The code combines flexible structural modeling tools with advanced probabilistic algorithms in order to compute probabilistic structural response and resistance, component reliability and risk, and system reliability and risk. An illustrative numerical example is presented.

Identifying Electricity Capacity at Risk to Changes in Climate and Water Resources in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miara, A.; Macknick, J.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Corsi, F.; Fekete, B. M.; Newmark, R. L.; Tidwell, V. C.; Cohen, S. M.

2016-12-01

Thermoelectric plants supply 85% of electricity generation in the United States. Under a warming climate, the performance of these power plants may be reduced, as thermoelectric generation is dependent upon cool ambient temperatures and sufficient water supplies at adequate temperatures. In this study, we assess the vulnerability and reliability of 1,100 operational power plants (2015) across the contiguous United States under a comprehensive set of climate scenarios (five Global Circulation Models each with four Representative Concentration Pathways). We model individual power plant capacities using the Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution model (TP2M) coupled with the Water Balance Model (WBM) at a daily temporal resolution and 5x5 km spatial resolution. Together, these models calculate power plant capacity losses that account for geophysical constraints and river network dynamics. Potential losses at the single-plant level are put into a regional energy security context by assessing the collective system-level reliability at the North-American Electricity Reliability Corporation (NERC) regions. Results show that the thermoelectric sector at the national level has low vulnerability under the contemporary climate and that system-level reliability in terms of available thermoelectric resources relative to thermoelectric demand is sufficient. Under future climates scenarios, changes in water availability and warm ambient temperatures lead to constraints on operational capacity and increased vulnerability at individual power plant sites across all regions in the United States. However, there is a strong disparity in regional vulnerability trends and magnitudes that arise from each region's climate, hydrology and technology mix. Despite increases in vulnerabilities at the individual power plant level, regional energy systems may still be reliable (with no system failures) due to sufficient back-up reserve capacities.

Reliability evaluation methodology for NASA applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taneja, Vidya S.

1992-01-01

Liquid rocket engine technology has been characterized by the development of complex systems containing large number of subsystems, components, and parts. The trend to even larger and more complex system is continuing. The liquid rocket engineers have been focusing mainly on performance driven designs to increase payload delivery of a launch vehicle for a given mission. In otherwords, although the failure of a single inexpensive part or component may cause the failure of the system, reliability in general has not been considered as one of the system parameters like cost or performance. Up till now, quantification of reliability has not been a consideration during system design and development in the liquid rocket industry. Engineers and managers have long been aware of the fact that the reliability of the system increases during development, but no serious attempts have been made to quantify reliability. As a result, a method to quantify reliability during design and development is needed. This includes application of probabilistic models which utilize both engineering analysis and test data. Classical methods require the use of operating data for reliability demonstration. In contrast, the method described in this paper is based on similarity, analysis, and testing combined with Bayesian statistical analysis.

Reliable High Performance Peta- and Exa-Scale Computing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bronevetsky, G

2012-04-02

As supercomputers become larger and more powerful, they are growing increasingly complex. This is reflected both in the exponentially increasing numbers of components in HPC systems (LLNL is currently installing the 1.6 million core Sequoia system) as well as the wide variety of software and hardware components that a typical system includes. At this scale it becomes infeasible to make each component sufficiently reliable to prevent regular faults somewhere in the system or to account for all possible cross-component interactions. The resulting faults and instability cause HPC applications to crash, perform sub-optimally or even produce erroneous results. As supercomputers continuemore » to approach Exascale performance and full system reliability becomes prohibitively expensive, we will require novel techniques to bridge the gap between the lower reliability provided by hardware systems and users unchanging need for consistent performance and reliable results. Previous research on HPC system reliability has developed various techniques for tolerating and detecting various types of faults. However, these techniques have seen very limited real applicability because of our poor understanding of how real systems are affected by complex faults such as soft fault-induced bit flips or performance degradations. Prior work on such techniques has had very limited practical utility because it has generally focused on analyzing the behavior of entire software/hardware systems both during normal operation and in the face of faults. Because such behaviors are extremely complex, such studies have only produced coarse behavioral models of limited sets of software/hardware system stacks. Since this provides little insight into the many different system stacks and applications used in practice, this work has had little real-world impact. My project addresses this problem by developing a modular methodology to analyze the behavior of applications and systems during both normal and faulty operation. By synthesizing models of individual components into a whole-system behavior models my work is making it possible to automatically understand the behavior of arbitrary real-world systems to enable them to tolerate a wide range of system faults. My project is following a multi-pronged research strategy. Section II discusses my work on modeling the behavior of existing applications and systems. Section II.A discusses resilience in the face of soft faults and Section II.B looks at techniques to tolerate performance faults. Finally Section III presents an alternative approach that studies how a system should be designed from the ground up to make resilience natural and easy.« less

Performance of a system of reservoirs on futuristic front

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, Satabdi; Roy, Debasri; Mazumdar, Asis

2017-10-01

Application of simulation model HEC-5 to analyze the performance of the DVC Reservoir System (a multipurpose system with a network of five reservoirs and one barrage) on the river Damodar in Eastern India in meeting projected future demand as well as controlling flood for synthetically generated future scenario is addressed here with a view to develop an appropriate strategy for its operation. Thomas-Fiering model (based on Markov autoregressive model) has been adopted for generation of synthetic scenario (monthly streamflow series) and subsequently downscaling of modeled monthly streamflow to daily values was carried out. The performance of the system (analysed on seasonal basis) in terms of `Performance Indices' (viz., both quantity based reliability and time based reliability, mean daily deficit, average failure period, resilience and maximum vulnerability indices) for the projected scenario with enhanced demand turned out to be poor compared to that for historical scenario. However, judicious adoption of resource enhancement (marginal reallocation of reservoir storage capacity) and demand management strategy (curtailment of projected high water requirements and trading off between demands) was found to be a viable option for improvement of the performance of the reservoir system appreciably [improvement being (1-51 %), (2-35 %), (16-96 %), (25-50 %), (8-36 %) and (12-30 %) for the indices viz., quantity based reliability, time based reliability, mean daily deficit, average failure period, resilience and maximum vulnerability, respectively] compared to that with normal storage and projected demand. Again, 100 % reliability for flood control for current as well as future synthetically generated scenarios was noted. The results from the study would assist concerned authority in successful operation of reservoirs in the context of growing demand and dwindling resource.

Reliability modelling and analysis of a multi-state element based on a dynamic Bayesian network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhiqiang; Xu, Tingxue; Gu, Junyuan; Dong, Qi; Fu, Linyu

2018-04-01

This paper presents a quantitative reliability modelling and analysis method for multi-state elements based on a combination of the Markov process and a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), taking perfect repair, imperfect repair and condition-based maintenance (CBM) into consideration. The Markov models of elements without repair and under CBM are established, and an absorbing set is introduced to determine the reliability of the repairable element. According to the state-transition relations between the states determined by the Markov process, a DBN model is built. In addition, its parameters for series and parallel systems, namely, conditional probability tables, can be calculated by referring to the conditional degradation probabilities. Finally, the power of a control unit in a failure model is used as an example. A dynamic fault tree (DFT) is translated into a Bayesian network model, and subsequently extended to a DBN. The results show the state probabilities of an element and the system without repair, with perfect and imperfect repair, and under CBM, with an absorbing set plotted by differential equations and verified. Through referring forward, the reliability value of the control unit is determined in different kinds of modes. Finally, weak nodes are noted in the control unit.

Estimation of reliable range of electron temperature measurements with sets of given optical bandpass filters for KSTAR Thomson scattering system based on synthetic Thomson data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, K.-h.; Oh, T.-s.; Park, K.-r.; Lee, J. H.; Ghim, Y.-c.

2017-11-01

One factor determining the reliability of measurements of electron temperature using a Thomson scattering (TS) system is transmittance of the optical bandpass filters in polychromators. We investigate the system performance as a function of electron temperature to determine reliable range of measurements for a given set of the optical bandpass filters. We show that such a reliability, i.e., both bias and random errors, can be obtained by building a forward model of the KSTAR TS system to generate synthetic TS data with the prescribed electron temperature and density profiles. The prescribed profiles are compared with the estimated ones to quantify both bias and random errors.

Rollover risk prediction of heavy vehicles by reliability index and empirical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sellami, Yamine; Imine, Hocine; Boubezoul, Abderrahmane; Cadiou, Jean-Charles

2018-03-01

This paper focuses on a combination of a reliability-based approach and an empirical modelling approach for rollover risk assessment of heavy vehicles. A reliability-based warning system is developed to alert the driver to a potential rollover before entering into a bend. The idea behind the proposed methodology is to estimate the rollover risk by the probability that the vehicle load transfer ratio (LTR) exceeds a critical threshold. Accordingly, a so-called reliability index may be used as a measure to assess the vehicle safe functioning. In the reliability method, computing the maximum of LTR requires to predict the vehicle dynamics over the bend which can be in some cases an intractable problem or time-consuming. With the aim of improving the reliability computation time, an empirical model is developed to substitute the vehicle dynamics and rollover models. This is done by using the SVM (Support Vector Machines) algorithm. The preliminary obtained results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Adaptive vehicle motion estimation and prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Liang; Thorpe, Chuck E.

1999-01-01

Accurate motion estimation and reliable maneuver prediction enable an automated car to react quickly and correctly to the rapid maneuvers of the other vehicles, and so allow safe and efficient navigation. In this paper, we present a car tracking system which provides motion estimation, maneuver prediction and detection of the tracked car. The three strategies employed - adaptive motion modeling, adaptive data sampling, and adaptive model switching probabilities - result in an adaptive interacting multiple model algorithm (AIMM). The experimental results on simulated and real data demonstrate that our tracking system is reliable, flexible, and robust. The adaptive tracking makes the system intelligent and useful in various autonomous driving tasks.

R&D of high reliable refrigeration system for superconducting generators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hosoya, T.; Shindo, S.; Yaguchi, H.

1996-12-31

Super-GM carries out R&D of 70 MW class superconducting generators (model machines), refrigeration system and superconducting wires to apply superconducting technology to electric power apparatuses. The helium refrigeration system for keeping field windings of superconducting generator (SCG) in cryogenic environment must meet the requirement of high reliability for uninterrupted long term operation of the SCG. In FY 1992, a high reliable conventional refrigeration system for the model machines was integrated by combining components such as compressor unit, higher temperature cold box and lower temperature cold box which were manufactured utilizing various fundamental technologies developed in early stage of the projectmore » since 1988. Since FY 1993, its performance tests have been carried out. It has been confirmed that its performance was fulfilled the development target of liquefaction capacity of 100 L/h and impurity removal in the helium gas to < 0.1 ppm. Furthermore, its operation method and performance were clarified to all different modes as how to control liquefaction rate and how to supply liquid helium from a dewar to the model machine. In addition, the authors have made performance tests and system performance analysis of oil free screw type and turbo type compressors which greatly improve reliability of conventional refrigeration systems. The operation performance and operational control method of the compressors has been clarified through the tests and analysis.« less

Modeling of BN Lifetime Prediction of a System Based on Integrated Multi-Level Information

PubMed Central

Wang, Xiaohong; Wang, Lizhi

2017-01-01

Predicting system lifetime is important to ensure safe and reliable operation of products, which requires integrated modeling based on multi-level, multi-sensor information. However, lifetime characteristics of equipment in a system are different and failure mechanisms are inter-coupled, which leads to complex logical correlations and the lack of a uniform lifetime measure. Based on a Bayesian network (BN), a lifetime prediction method for systems that combine multi-level sensor information is proposed. The method considers the correlation between accidental failures and degradation failure mechanisms, and achieves system modeling and lifetime prediction under complex logic correlations. This method is applied in the lifetime prediction of a multi-level solar-powered unmanned system, and the predicted results can provide guidance for the improvement of system reliability and for the maintenance and protection of the system. PMID:28926930

Modeling of BN Lifetime Prediction of a System Based on Integrated Multi-Level Information.

PubMed

Wang, Jingbin; Wang, Xiaohong; Wang, Lizhi

2017-09-15

Predicting system lifetime is important to ensure safe and reliable operation of products, which requires integrated modeling based on multi-level, multi-sensor information. However, lifetime characteristics of equipment in a system are different and failure mechanisms are inter-coupled, which leads to complex logical correlations and the lack of a uniform lifetime measure. Based on a Bayesian network (BN), a lifetime prediction method for systems that combine multi-level sensor information is proposed. The method considers the correlation between accidental failures and degradation failure mechanisms, and achieves system modeling and lifetime prediction under complex logic correlations. This method is applied in the lifetime prediction of a multi-level solar-powered unmanned system, and the predicted results can provide guidance for the improvement of system reliability and for the maintenance and protection of the system.

Closed-form solution of decomposable stochastic models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sjogren, Jon A.

1990-01-01

Markov and semi-Markov processes are increasingly being used in the modeling of complex reconfigurable systems (fault tolerant computers). The estimation of the reliability (or some measure of performance) of the system reduces to solving the process for its state probabilities. Such a model may exhibit numerous states and complicated transition distributions, contributing to an expensive and numerically delicate solution procedure. Thus, when a system exhibits a decomposition property, either structurally (autonomous subsystems), or behaviorally (component failure versus reconfiguration), it is desirable to exploit this decomposition in the reliability calculation. In interesting cases there can be failure states which arise from non-failure states of the subsystems. Equations are presented which allow the computation of failure probabilities of the total (combined) model without requiring a complete solution of the combined model. This material is presented within the context of closed-form functional representation of probabilities as utilized in the Symbolic Hierarchical Automated Reliability and Performance Evaluator (SHARPE) tool. The techniques adopted enable one to compute such probability functions for a much wider class of systems at a reduced computational cost. Several examples show how the method is used, especially in enhancing the versatility of the SHARPE tool.

Cost Estimation of Software Development and the Implications for the Program Manager

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-06-01

Software Lifecycle Model (SLIM), the Jensen System-4 model, the Software Productivity, Quality, and Reliability Estimator ( SPQR \\20), the Constructive...function models in current use are the Software Productivity, Quality, and Reliability Estimator ( SPQR /20) and the Software Architecture Sizing and...Estimator ( SPQR /20) was developed by T. Capers Jones of Software Productivity Research, Inc., in 1985. The model is intended to estimate the outcome

Reliability Assessment Approach for Stirling Convertors and Generators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shah, Ashwin R.; Schreiber, Jeffrey G.; Zampino, Edward; Best, Timothy

2004-01-01

Stirling power conversion is being considered for use in a Radioisotope Power System for deep-space science missions because it offers a multifold increase in the conversion efficiency of heat to electric power. Quantifying the reliability of a Radioisotope Power System that utilizes Stirling power conversion technology is important in developing and demonstrating the capability for long-term success. A description of the Stirling power convertor is provided, along with a discussion about some of the key components. Ongoing efforts to understand component life, design variables at the component and system levels, related sources, and the nature of uncertainties is discussed. The requirement for reliability also is discussed, and some of the critical areas of concern are identified. A section on the objectives of the performance model development and a computation of reliability is included to highlight the goals of this effort. Also, a viable physics-based reliability plan to model the design-level variable uncertainties at the component and system levels is outlined, and potential benefits are elucidated. The plan involves the interaction of different disciplines, maintaining the physical and probabilistic correlations at all the levels, and a verification process based on rational short-term tests. In addition, both top-down and bottom-up coherency were maintained to follow the physics-based design process and mission requirements. The outlined reliability assessment approach provides guidelines to improve the design and identifies governing variables to achieve high reliability in the Stirling Radioisotope Generator design.

Protocol for Reliability Assessment of Structural Health Monitoring Systems Incorporating Model-assisted Probability of Detection (MAPOD) Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-01

a quality evaluation with limited data, a model -based assessment must be...that affect system performance, a multistage approach to system validation, a modeling and experimental methodology for efficiently addressing a ...affect system performance, a multistage approach to system validation, a modeling and experimental methodology for efficiently addressing a wide range

Designing Fault-Injection Experiments for the Reliability of Embedded Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Allan L.

2012-01-01

This paper considers the long-standing problem of conducting fault-injections experiments to establish the ultra-reliability of embedded systems. There have been extensive efforts in fault injection, and this paper offers a partial summary of the efforts, but these previous efforts have focused on realism and efficiency. Fault injections have been used to examine diagnostics and to test algorithms, but the literature does not contain any framework that says how to conduct fault-injection experiments to establish ultra-reliability. A solution to this problem integrates field-data, arguments-from-design, and fault-injection into a seamless whole. The solution in this paper is to derive a model reduction theorem for a class of semi-Markov models suitable for describing ultra-reliable embedded systems. The derivation shows that a tight upper bound on the probability of system failure can be obtained using only the means of system-recovery times, thus reducing the experimental effort to estimating a reasonable number of easily-observed parameters. The paper includes an example of a system subject to both permanent and transient faults. There is a discussion of integrating fault-injection with field-data and arguments-from-design.

Prediction of Software Reliability using Bio Inspired Soft Computing Techniques.

PubMed

Diwaker, Chander; Tomar, Pradeep; Poonia, Ramesh C; Singh, Vijander

2018-04-10

A lot of models have been made for predicting software reliability. The reliability models are restricted to using particular types of methodologies and restricted number of parameters. There are a number of techniques and methodologies that may be used for reliability prediction. There is need to focus on parameters consideration while estimating reliability. The reliability of a system may increase or decreases depending on the selection of different parameters used. Thus there is need to identify factors that heavily affecting the reliability of the system. In present days, reusability is mostly used in the various area of research. Reusability is the basis of Component-Based System (CBS). The cost, time and human skill can be saved using Component-Based Software Engineering (CBSE) concepts. CBSE metrics may be used to assess those techniques which are more suitable for estimating system reliability. Soft computing is used for small as well as large-scale problems where it is difficult to find accurate results due to uncertainty or randomness. Several possibilities are available to apply soft computing techniques in medicine related problems. Clinical science of medicine using fuzzy-logic, neural network methodology significantly while basic science of medicine using neural-networks-genetic algorithm most frequently and preferably. There is unavoidable interest shown by medical scientists to use the various soft computing methodologies in genetics, physiology, radiology, cardiology and neurology discipline. CBSE boost users to reuse the past and existing software for making new products to provide quality with a saving of time, memory space, and money. This paper focused on assessment of commonly used soft computing technique like Genetic Algorithm (GA), Neural-Network (NN), Fuzzy Logic, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and Artificial Bee Colony (ABC). This paper presents working of soft computing techniques and assessment of soft computing techniques to predict reliability. The parameter considered while estimating and prediction of reliability are also discussed. This study can be used in estimation and prediction of the reliability of various instruments used in the medical system, software engineering, computer engineering and mechanical engineering also. These concepts can be applied to both software and hardware, to predict the reliability using CBSE.

Photovoltaic performance and reliability workshop

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kroposki, B

1996-10-01

This proceedings is the compilation of papers presented at the ninth PV Performance and Reliability Workshop held at the Sheraton Denver West Hotel on September 4--6, 1996. This years workshop included presentations from 25 speakers and had over 100 attendees. All of the presentations that were given are included in this proceedings. Topics of the papers included: defining service lifetime and developing models for PV module lifetime; examining and determining failure and degradation mechanisms in PV modules; combining IEEE/IEC/UL testing procedures; AC module performance and reliability testing; inverter reliability/qualification testing; standardization of utility interconnect requirements for PV systems; need activitiesmore » to separate variables by testing individual components of PV systems (e.g. cells, modules, batteries, inverters,charge controllers) for individual reliability and then test them in actual system configurations; more results reported from field experience on modules, inverters, batteries, and charge controllers from field deployed PV systems; and system certification and standardized testing for stand-alone and grid-tied systems.« less

Bridge deterioration models to support Indiana's bridge management system.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-02-01

An effective bridge management system that is equipped with reliable deterioration models enables agency engineers to carry out : monitoring and long-term programming of bridge repair actions. At the project level, deterioration models help the agenc...

Probabilistic structural analysis by extremum methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nafday, Avinash M.

1990-01-01

The objective is to demonstrate discrete extremum methods of structural analysis as a tool for structural system reliability evaluation. Specifically, linear and multiobjective linear programming models for analysis of rigid plastic frames under proportional and multiparametric loadings, respectively, are considered. Kinematic and static approaches for analysis form a primal-dual pair in each of these models and have a polyhedral format. Duality relations link extreme points and hyperplanes of these polyhedra and lead naturally to dual methods for system reliability evaluation.

Modeling service time reliability in urban ferry system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yifan; Luo, Sida; Zhang, Mengke; Shen, Hanxia; Xin, Feifei; Luo, Yujie

2017-09-01

The urban ferry system can carry a large number of travelers, which may alleviate the pressure on road traffic. As an indicator of its service quality, service time reliability (STR) plays an essential part in attracting travelers to the ferry system. A wide array of studies have been conducted to analyze the STR of land transportation. However, the STR of ferry systems has received little attention in the transportation literature. In this study, a model was established to obtain the STR in urban ferry systems. First, the probability density function (PDF) of the service time provided by ferry systems was constructed. Considering the deficiency of the queuing theory, this PDF was determined by Bayes’ theorem. Then, to validate the function, the results of the proposed model were compared with those of the Monte Carlo simulation. With the PDF, the reliability could be determined mathematically by integration. Results showed how the factors including the frequency, capacity, time schedule and ferry waiting time affected the STR under different degrees of congestion in ferry systems. Based on these results, some strategies for improving the STR were proposed. These findings are of great significance to increasing the share of ferries among various urban transport modes.

Operator adaptation to changes in system reliability under adaptable automation.

PubMed

Chavaillaz, Alain; Sauer, Juergen

2017-09-01

This experiment examined how operators coped with a change in system reliability between training and testing. Forty participants were trained for 3 h on a complex process control simulation modelling six levels of automation (LOA). In training, participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (50%). The impact of training experience on operator behaviour was examined during a 2.5 h testing session, in which participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (60%). The results showed that most operators did not often switch between LOA. Most chose an LOA that relieved them of most tasks but maintained their decision authority. Training experience did not have a strong impact on the outcome measures (e.g. performance, complacency). Low system reliability led to decreased performance and self-confidence. Furthermore, complacency was observed under high system reliability. Overall, the findings suggest benefits of adaptable automation because it accommodates different operator preferences for LOA. Practitioner Summary: The present research shows that operators can adapt to changes in system reliability between training and testing sessions. Furthermore, it provides evidence that each operator has his/her preferred automation level. Since this preference varies strongly between operators, adaptable automation seems to be suitable to accommodate these large differences.

The process group approach to reliable distributed computing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Birman, Kenneth P.

1992-01-01

The difficulty of developing reliable distribution software is an impediment to applying distributed computing technology in many settings. Experience with the ISIS system suggests that a structured approach based on virtually synchronous process groups yields systems that are substantially easier to develop, exploit sophisticated forms of cooperative computation, and achieve high reliability. Six years of research on ISIS, describing the model, its implementation challenges, and the types of applications to which ISIS has been applied are reviewed.

Nodal failure index approach to groundwater remediation design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, J.; Reeves, H.W.; Dowding, C.H.

2008-01-01

Computer simulations often are used to design and to optimize groundwater remediation systems. We present a new computationally efficient approach that calculates the reliability of remedial design at every location in a model domain with a single simulation. The estimated reliability and other model information are used to select a best remedial option for given site conditions, conceptual model, and available data. To evaluate design performance, we introduce the nodal failure index (NFI) to determine the number of nodal locations at which the probability of success is below the design requirement. The strength of the NFI approach is that selected areas of interest can be specified for analysis and the best remedial design determined for this target region. An example application of the NFI approach using a hypothetical model shows how the spatial distribution of reliability can be used for a decision support system in groundwater remediation design. ?? 2008 ASCE.

An integrated approach to system design, reliability, and diagnosis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson-Hine, F. A.; Iverson, David L.

1990-01-01

The requirement for ultradependability of computer systems in future avionics and space applications necessitates a top-down, integrated systems ingeneering approach for design, implementation, testing, and operation. The functional analyses of hardware and software systems must be combined by models that are flexible enough to represent their interactions and behavior. The information contained in these models must be accessible throughout all phases of the system life cycle in order to maintain consistency and accuracy in design and operational decisions. One approach being taken by researchers at Ames Research Center is the creation of an object-oriented environment that integrates information about system components required in the reliability evaluation with behavioral information useful for diagnostic algorithms.

Model of load balancing using reliable algorithm with multi-agent system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afriansyah, M. F.; Somantri, M.; Riyadi, M. A.

2017-04-01

Massive technology development is linear with the growth of internet users which increase network traffic activity. It also increases load of the system. The usage of reliable algorithm and mobile agent in distributed load balancing is a viable solution to handle the load issue on a large-scale system. Mobile agent works to collect resource information and can migrate according to given task. We propose reliable load balancing algorithm using least time first byte (LFB) combined with information from the mobile agent. In system overview, the methodology consisted of defining identification system, specification requirements, network topology and design system infrastructure. The simulation method for simulated system was using 1800 request for 10 s from the user to the server and taking the data for analysis. Software simulation was based on Apache Jmeter by observing response time and reliability of each server and then compared it with existing method. Results of performed simulation show that the LFB method with mobile agent can perform load balancing with efficient systems to all backend server without bottleneck, low risk of server overload, and reliable.

Weighted integration of short-term memory and sensory signals in the oculomotor system.

PubMed

Deravet, Nicolas; Blohm, Gunnar; de Xivry, Jean-Jacques Orban; Lefèvre, Philippe

2018-05-01

Oculomotor behaviors integrate sensory and prior information to overcome sensory-motor delays and noise. After much debate about this process, reliability-based integration has recently been proposed and several models of smooth pursuit now include recurrent Bayesian integration or Kalman filtering. However, there is a lack of behavioral evidence in humans supporting these theoretical predictions. Here, we independently manipulated the reliability of visual and prior information in a smooth pursuit task. Our results show that both smooth pursuit eye velocity and catch-up saccade amplitude were modulated by visual and prior information reliability. We interpret these findings as the continuous reliability-based integration of a short-term memory of target motion with visual information, which support modeling work. Furthermore, we suggest that saccadic and pursuit systems share this short-term memory. We propose that this short-term memory of target motion is quickly built and continuously updated, and constitutes a general building block present in all sensorimotor systems.

Reliability analysis and fault-tolerant system development for a redundant strapdown inertial measurement unit. [inertial platforms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Motyka, P.

1983-01-01

A methodology is developed and applied for quantitatively analyzing the reliability of a dual, fail-operational redundant strapdown inertial measurement unit (RSDIMU). A Markov evaluation model is defined in terms of the operational states of the RSDIMU to predict system reliability. A 27 state model is defined based upon a candidate redundancy management system which can detect and isolate a spectrum of failure magnitudes. The results of parametric studies are presented which show the effect on reliability of the gyro failure rate, both the gyro and accelerometer failure rates together, false alarms, probability of failure detection, probability of failure isolation, and probability of damage effects and mission time. A technique is developed and evaluated for generating dynamic thresholds for detecting and isolating failures of the dual, separated IMU. Special emphasis is given to the detection of multiple, nonconcurrent failures. Digital simulation time histories are presented which show the thresholds obtained and their effectiveness in detecting and isolating sensor failures.

Modeling the Control Systems of Gas-Turbines to Ensure Their Reliable Parallel Operation in the UPS of Russia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vinogradov, A. Yu., E-mail: vinogradov-a@ntcees.ru; Gerasimov, A. S.; Kozlov, A. V.

Consideration is given to different approaches to modeling the control systems of gas turbines as a component of CCPP and GTPP to ensure their reliable parallel operation in the UPS of Russia. The disadvantages of the approaches to the modeling of combined-cycle units in studying long-term electromechanical transients accompanied by power imbalance are pointed out. Examples are presented to support the use of more detailed models of gas turbines in electromechanical transient calculations. It is shown that the modern speed control systems of gas turbines in combination with relatively low equivalent inertia have a considerable effect on electromechanical transients, includingmore » those caused by disturbances not related to power imbalance.« less

Development and analysis of the Software Implemented Fault-Tolerance (SIFT) computer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, J.; Kautz, W. H.; Melliar-Smith, P. M.; Green, M. W.; Levitt, K. N.; Schwartz, R. L.; Weinstock, C. B.

1984-01-01

SIFT (Software Implemented Fault Tolerance) is an experimental, fault-tolerant computer system designed to meet the extreme reliability requirements for safety-critical functions in advanced aircraft. Errors are masked by performing a majority voting operation over the results of identical computations, and faulty processors are removed from service by reassigning computations to the nonfaulty processors. This scheme has been implemented in a special architecture using a set of standard Bendix BDX930 processors, augmented by a special asynchronous-broadcast communication interface that provides direct, processor to processor communication among all processors. Fault isolation is accomplished in hardware; all other fault-tolerance functions, together with scheduling and synchronization are implemented exclusively by executive system software. The system reliability is predicted by a Markov model. Mathematical consistency of the system software with respect to the reliability model has been partially verified, using recently developed tools for machine-aided proof of program correctness.

A graphical language for reliability model generation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howell, Sandra V.; Bavuso, Salvatore J.; Haley, Pamela J.

1990-01-01

A graphical interface capability of the hybrid automated reliability predictor (HARP) is described. The graphics-oriented (GO) module provides the user with a graphical language for modeling system failure modes through the selection of various fault tree gates, including sequence dependency gates, or by a Markov chain. With this graphical input language, a fault tree becomes a convenient notation for describing a system. In accounting for any sequence dependencies, HARP converts the fault-tree notation to a complex stochastic process that is reduced to a Markov chain which it can then solve for system reliability. The graphics capability is available for use on an IBM-compatible PC, a Sun, and a VAX workstation. The GO module is written in the C programming language and uses the Graphical Kernel System (GKS) standard for graphics implementation. The PC, VAX, and Sun versions of the HARP GO module are currently in beta-testing.

Methods for Calculating Frequency of Maintenance of Complex Information Security System Based on Dynamics of Its Reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varlataya, S. K.; Evdokimov, V. E.; Urzov, A. Y.

2017-11-01

This article describes a process of calculating a certain complex information security system (CISS) reliability using the example of the technospheric security management model as well as ability to determine the frequency of its maintenance using the system reliability parameter which allows one to assess man-made risks and to forecast natural and man-made emergencies. The relevance of this article is explained by the fact the CISS reliability is closely related to information security (IS) risks. Since reliability (or resiliency) is a probabilistic characteristic of the system showing the possibility of its failure (and as a consequence - threats to the protected information assets emergence), it is seen as a component of the overall IS risk in the system. As it is known, there is a certain acceptable level of IS risk assigned by experts for a particular information system; in case of reliability being a risk-forming factor maintaining an acceptable risk level should be carried out by the routine analysis of the condition of CISS and its elements and their timely service. The article presents a reliability parameter calculation for the CISS with a mixed type of element connection, a formula of the dynamics of such system reliability is written. The chart of CISS reliability change is a S-shaped curve which can be divided into 3 periods: almost invariable high level of reliability, uniform reliability reduction, almost invariable low level of reliability. Setting the minimum acceptable level of reliability, the graph (or formula) can be used to determine the period of time during which the system would meet requirements. Ideally, this period should not be longer than the first period of the graph. Thus, the proposed method of calculating the CISS maintenance frequency helps to solve a voluminous and critical task of the information assets risk management.

SARA - SURE/ASSIST RELIABILITY ANALYSIS WORKSTATION (VAX VMS VERSION)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, R. W.

1994-01-01

SARA, the SURE/ASSIST Reliability Analysis Workstation, is a bundle of programs used to solve reliability problems. The mathematical approach chosen to solve a reliability problem may vary with the size and nature of the problem. The Systems Validation Methods group at NASA Langley Research Center has created a set of four software packages that form the basis for a reliability analysis workstation, including three for use in analyzing reconfigurable, fault-tolerant systems and one for analyzing non-reconfigurable systems. The SARA bundle includes the three for reconfigurable, fault-tolerant systems: SURE reliability analysis program (COSMIC program LAR-13789, LAR-14921); the ASSIST specification interface program (LAR-14193, LAR-14923), and PAWS/STEM reliability analysis programs (LAR-14165, LAR-14920). As indicated by the program numbers in parentheses, each of these three packages is also available separately in two machine versions. The fourth package, which is only available separately, is FTC, the Fault Tree Compiler (LAR-14586, LAR-14922). FTC is used to calculate the top-event probability for a fault tree which describes a non-reconfigurable system. PAWS/STEM and SURE are analysis programs which utilize different solution methods, but have a common input language, the SURE language. ASSIST is a preprocessor that generates SURE language from a more abstract definition. ASSIST, SURE, and PAWS/STEM are described briefly in the following paragraphs. For additional details about the individual packages, including pricing, please refer to their respective abstracts. ASSIST, the Abstract Semi-Markov Specification Interface to the SURE Tool program, allows a reliability engineer to describe the failure behavior of a fault-tolerant computer system in an abstract, high-level language. The ASSIST program then automatically generates a corresponding semi-Markov model. A one-page ASSIST-language description may result in a semi-Markov model with thousands of states and transitions. The ASSIST program also includes model-reduction techniques to facilitate efficient modeling of large systems. The semi-Markov model generated by ASSIST is in the format needed for input to SURE and PAWS/STEM. The Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator, SURE, is an analysis tool for reconfigurable, fault-tolerant systems. SURE provides an efficient means for calculating accurate upper and lower bounds for the death state probabilities for a large class of semi-Markov models, not just those which can be reduced to critical-pair architectures. The calculated bounds are close enough (usually within 5 percent of each other) for use in reliability studies of ultra-reliable computer systems. The SURE bounding theorems have algebraic solutions and are consequently computationally efficient even for large and complex systems. SURE can optionally regard a specified parameter as a variable over a range of values, enabling an automatic sensitivity analysis. SURE output is tabular. The PAWS/STEM package includes two programs for the creation and evaluation of pure Markov models describing the behavior of fault-tolerant reconfigurable computer systems: the Pade Approximation with Scaling (PAWS) and Scaled Taylor Exponential Matrix (STEM) programs. PAWS and STEM produce exact solutions for the probability of system failure and provide a conservative estimate of the number of significant digits in the solution. Markov models of fault-tolerant architectures inevitably lead to numerically stiff differential equations. Both PAWS and STEM have the capability to solve numerically stiff models. These complementary programs use separate methods to determine the matrix exponential in the solution of the model's system of differential equations. In general, PAWS is better suited to evaluate small and dense models. STEM operates at lower precision, but works faster than PAWS for larger models. The programs that comprise the SARA package were originally developed for use on DEC VAX series computers running VMS and were later ported for use on Sun series computers running SunOS. They are written in C-language, Pascal, and FORTRAN 77. An ANSI compliant C compiler is required in order to compile the C portion of the Sun version source code. The Pascal and FORTRAN code can be compiled on Sun computers using Sun Pascal and Sun Fortran. For the VMS version, VAX C, VAX PASCAL, and VAX FORTRAN can be used to recompile the source code. The standard distribution medium for the VMS version of SARA (COS-10041) is a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in VMSINSTAL format. It is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in VMSINSTAL format. Executables are included. The standard distribution medium for the Sun version of SARA (COS-10039) is a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. Both Sun3 and Sun4 executables are included. Electronic copies of the ASSIST user's manual in TeX and PostScript formats are provided on the distribution medium. DEC, VAX, VMS, and TK50 are registered trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. Sun, Sun3, Sun4, and SunOS are trademarks of Sun Microsystems, Inc. TeX is a trademark of the American Mathematical Society. PostScript is a registered trademark of Adobe Systems Incorporated.

SARA - SURE/ASSIST RELIABILITY ANALYSIS WORKSTATION (UNIX VERSION)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, R. W.

1994-01-01

SARA, the SURE/ASSIST Reliability Analysis Workstation, is a bundle of programs used to solve reliability problems. The mathematical approach chosen to solve a reliability problem may vary with the size and nature of the problem. The Systems Validation Methods group at NASA Langley Research Center has created a set of four software packages that form the basis for a reliability analysis workstation, including three for use in analyzing reconfigurable, fault-tolerant systems and one for analyzing non-reconfigurable systems. The SARA bundle includes the three for reconfigurable, fault-tolerant systems: SURE reliability analysis program (COSMIC program LAR-13789, LAR-14921); the ASSIST specification interface program (LAR-14193, LAR-14923), and PAWS/STEM reliability analysis programs (LAR-14165, LAR-14920). As indicated by the program numbers in parentheses, each of these three packages is also available separately in two machine versions. The fourth package, which is only available separately, is FTC, the Fault Tree Compiler (LAR-14586, LAR-14922). FTC is used to calculate the top-event probability for a fault tree which describes a non-reconfigurable system. PAWS/STEM and SURE are analysis programs which utilize different solution methods, but have a common input language, the SURE language. ASSIST is a preprocessor that generates SURE language from a more abstract definition. ASSIST, SURE, and PAWS/STEM are described briefly in the following paragraphs. For additional details about the individual packages, including pricing, please refer to their respective abstracts. ASSIST, the Abstract Semi-Markov Specification Interface to the SURE Tool program, allows a reliability engineer to describe the failure behavior of a fault-tolerant computer system in an abstract, high-level language. The ASSIST program then automatically generates a corresponding semi-Markov model. A one-page ASSIST-language description may result in a semi-Markov model with thousands of states and transitions. The ASSIST program also includes model-reduction techniques to facilitate efficient modeling of large systems. The semi-Markov model generated by ASSIST is in the format needed for input to SURE and PAWS/STEM. The Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator, SURE, is an analysis tool for reconfigurable, fault-tolerant systems. SURE provides an efficient means for calculating accurate upper and lower bounds for the death state probabilities for a large class of semi-Markov models, not just those which can be reduced to critical-pair architectures. The calculated bounds are close enough (usually within 5 percent of each other) for use in reliability studies of ultra-reliable computer systems. The SURE bounding theorems have algebraic solutions and are consequently computationally efficient even for large and complex systems. SURE can optionally regard a specified parameter as a variable over a range of values, enabling an automatic sensitivity analysis. SURE output is tabular. The PAWS/STEM package includes two programs for the creation and evaluation of pure Markov models describing the behavior of fault-tolerant reconfigurable computer systems: the Pade Approximation with Scaling (PAWS) and Scaled Taylor Exponential Matrix (STEM) programs. PAWS and STEM produce exact solutions for the probability of system failure and provide a conservative estimate of the number of significant digits in the solution. Markov models of fault-tolerant architectures inevitably lead to numerically stiff differential equations. Both PAWS and STEM have the capability to solve numerically stiff models. These complementary programs use separate methods to determine the matrix exponential in the solution of the model's system of differential equations. In general, PAWS is better suited to evaluate small and dense models. STEM operates at lower precision, but works faster than PAWS for larger models. The programs that comprise the SARA package were originally developed for use on DEC VAX series computers running VMS and were later ported for use on Sun series computers running SunOS. They are written in C-language, Pascal, and FORTRAN 77. An ANSI compliant C compiler is required in order to compile the C portion of the Sun version source code. The Pascal and FORTRAN code can be compiled on Sun computers using Sun Pascal and Sun Fortran. For the VMS version, VAX C, VAX PASCAL, and VAX FORTRAN can be used to recompile the source code. The standard distribution medium for the VMS version of SARA (COS-10041) is a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in VMSINSTAL format. It is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in VMSINSTAL format. Executables are included. The standard distribution medium for the Sun version of SARA (COS-10039) is a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. Both Sun3 and Sun4 executables are included. Electronic copies of the ASSIST user's manual in TeX and PostScript formats are provided on the distribution medium. DEC, VAX, VMS, and TK50 are registered trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. Sun, Sun3, Sun4, and SunOS are trademarks of Sun Microsystems, Inc. TeX is a trademark of the American Mathematical Society. PostScript is a registered trademark of Adobe Systems Incorporated.

Towards automatic Markov reliability modeling of computer architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liceaga, C. A.; Siewiorek, D. P.

1986-01-01

The analysis and evaluation of reliability measures using time-varying Markov models is required for Processor-Memory-Switch (PMS) structures that have competing processes such as standby redundancy and repair, or renewal processes such as transient or intermittent faults. The task of generating these models is tedious and prone to human error due to the large number of states and transitions involved in any reasonable system. Therefore model formulation is a major analysis bottleneck, and model verification is a major validation problem. The general unfamiliarity of computer architects with Markov modeling techniques further increases the necessity of automating the model formulation. This paper presents an overview of the Automated Reliability Modeling (ARM) program, under development at NASA Langley Research Center. ARM will accept as input a description of the PMS interconnection graph, the behavior of the PMS components, the fault-tolerant strategies, and the operational requirements. The output of ARM will be the reliability of availability Markov model formulated for direct use by evaluation programs. The advantages of such an approach are (a) utility to a large class of users, not necessarily expert in reliability analysis, and (b) a lower probability of human error in the computation.

Review of Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of Large Scale Belt Conveyor System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Qing; Li, Hong

Belt conveyor is one of the most important devices to transport bulk-solid material for long distance. Dynamic analysis is the key to decide whether the design is rational in technique, safe and reliable in running, feasible in economy. It is very important to study dynamic properties, improve efficiency and productivity, guarantee conveyor safe, reliable and stable running. The dynamic researches and applications of large scale belt conveyor are discussed. The main research topics, the state-of-the-art of dynamic researches on belt conveyor are analyzed. The main future works focus on dynamic analysis, modeling and simulation of main components and whole system, nonlinear modeling, simulation and vibration analysis of large scale conveyor system.

75 FR 40745 - Cyazofamid; Pesticide Tolerances

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-14

... Model/Exposure Analysis Modeling System (PRZM/EXAMS) model for surface water and the Screening... listed in this unit could also be affected. The North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS... there is reliable information.'' This includes exposure through drinking water and in residential...

Automatic documentation system extension to multi-manufacturers' computers and to measure, improve, and predict software reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simmons, D. B.

1975-01-01

The DOMONIC system has been modified to run on the Univac 1108 and the CDC 6600 as well as the IBM 370 computer system. The DOMONIC monitor system has been implemented to gather data which can be used to optimize the DOMONIC system and to predict the reliability of software developed using DOMONIC. The areas of quality metrics, error characterization, program complexity, program testing, validation and verification are analyzed. A software reliability model for estimating program completion levels and one on which to base system acceptance have been developed. The DAVE system which performs flow analysis and error detection has been converted from the University of Colorado CDC 6400/6600 computer to the IBM 360/370 computer system for use with the DOMONIC system.

Modeling and Verification of Dependable Electronic Power System Architecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Ling; Fan, Ping; Zhang, Xiao-fang

The electronic power system can be viewed as a system composed of a set of concurrently interacting subsystems to generate, transmit, and distribute electric power. The complex interaction among sub-systems makes the design of electronic power system complicated. Furthermore, in order to guarantee the safe generation and distribution of electronic power, the fault tolerant mechanisms are incorporated in the system design to satisfy high reliability requirements. As a result, the incorporation makes the design of such system more complicated. We propose a dependable electronic power system architecture, which can provide a generic framework to guide the development of electronic power system to ease the development complexity. In order to provide common idioms and patterns to the system *designers, we formally model the electronic power system architecture by using the PVS formal language. Based on the PVS model of this system architecture, we formally verify the fault tolerant properties of the system architecture by using the PVS theorem prover, which can guarantee that the system architecture can satisfy high reliability requirements.

PV System 'Availability' as a Reliability Metric -- Improving Standards, Contract Language and Performance Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klise, Geoffrey T.; Hill, Roger; Walker, Andy

The use of the term 'availability' to describe a photovoltaic (PV) system and power plant has been fraught with confusion for many years. A term that is meant to describe equipment operational status is often omitted, misapplied or inaccurately combined with PV performance metrics due to attempts to measure performance and reliability through the lens of traditional power plant language. This paper discusses three areas where current research in standards, contract language and performance modeling is improving the way availability is used with regards to photovoltaic systems and power plants.

On Space Exploration and Human Error: A Paper on Reliability and Safety

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, David G.; Maluf, David A.; Gawdiak, Yuri

2005-01-01

NASA space exploration should largely address a problem class in reliability and risk management stemming primarily from human error, system risk and multi-objective trade-off analysis, by conducting research into system complexity, risk characterization and modeling, and system reasoning. In general, in every mission we can distinguish risk in three possible ways: a) known-known, b) known-unknown, and c) unknown-unknown. It is probably almost certain that space exploration will partially experience similar known or unknown risks embedded in the Apollo missions, Shuttle or Station unless something alters how NASA will perceive and manage safety and reliability

Reliability Assessment for Low-cost Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freeman, Paul Michael

Existing low-cost unmanned aerospace systems are unreliable, and engineers must blend reliability analysis with fault-tolerant control in novel ways. This dissertation introduces the University of Minnesota unmanned aerial vehicle flight research platform, a comprehensive simulation and flight test facility for reliability and fault-tolerance research. An industry-standard reliability assessment technique, the failure modes and effects analysis, is performed for an unmanned aircraft. Particular attention is afforded to the control surface and servo-actuation subsystem. Maintaining effector health is essential for safe flight; failures may lead to loss of control incidents. Failure likelihood, severity, and risk are qualitatively assessed for several effector failure modes. Design changes are recommended to improve aircraft reliability based on this analysis. Most notably, the control surfaces are split, providing independent actuation and dual-redundancy. The simulation models for control surface aerodynamic effects are updated to reflect the split surfaces using a first-principles geometric analysis. The failure modes and effects analysis is extended by using a high-fidelity nonlinear aircraft simulation. A trim state discovery is performed to identify the achievable steady, wings-level flight envelope of the healthy and damaged vehicle. Tolerance of elevator actuator failures is studied using familiar tools from linear systems analysis. This analysis reveals significant inherent performance limitations for candidate adaptive/reconfigurable control algorithms used for the vehicle. Moreover, it demonstrates how these tools can be applied in a design feedback loop to make safety-critical unmanned systems more reliable. Control surface impairments that do occur must be quickly and accurately detected. This dissertation also considers fault detection and identification for an unmanned aerial vehicle using model-based and model-free approaches and applies those algorithms to experimental faulted and unfaulted flight test data. Flight tests are conducted with actuator faults that affect the plant input and sensor faults that affect the vehicle state measurements. A model-based detection strategy is designed and uses robust linear filtering methods to reject exogenous disturbances, e.g. wind, while providing robustness to model variation. A data-driven algorithm is developed to operate exclusively on raw flight test data without physical model knowledge. The fault detection and identification performance of these complementary but different methods is compared. Together, enhanced reliability assessment and multi-pronged fault detection and identification techniques can help to bring about the next generation of reliable low-cost unmanned aircraft.

Reliability assessment of fiber optic communication lines depending on external factors and diagnostic errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogachkov, I. V.; Lutchenko, S. S.

2018-05-01

The article deals with the method for the assessment of the fiber optic communication lines (FOCL) reliability taking into account the effect of the optical fiber tension, the temperature influence and the built-in diagnostic equipment errors of the first kind. The reliability is assessed in terms of the availability factor using the theory of Markov chains and probabilistic mathematical modeling. To obtain a mathematical model, the following steps are performed: the FOCL state is defined and validated; the state graph and system transitions are described; the system transition of states that occur at a certain point is specified; the real and the observed time of system presence in the considered states are identified. According to the permissible value of the availability factor, it is possible to determine the limiting frequency of FOCL maintenance.

Application of an Integrated HPC Reliability Prediction Framework to HMMWV Suspension System

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-13

model number M966 (TOW Missle Carrier, Basic Armor without weapons), since they were available. Tires used for all simulations were the bias-type...vehicle fleet, including consideration of all kinds of uncertainty, especially including model uncertainty. The end result will be a tool to use...building an adequate vehicle reliability prediction framework for military vehicles is the accurate modeling of the integration of various types of

Reliability modelling and analysis of a multi-state element based on a dynamic Bayesian network

PubMed Central

Xu, Tingxue; Gu, Junyuan; Dong, Qi; Fu, Linyu

2018-01-01

This paper presents a quantitative reliability modelling and analysis method for multi-state elements based on a combination of the Markov process and a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), taking perfect repair, imperfect repair and condition-based maintenance (CBM) into consideration. The Markov models of elements without repair and under CBM are established, and an absorbing set is introduced to determine the reliability of the repairable element. According to the state-transition relations between the states determined by the Markov process, a DBN model is built. In addition, its parameters for series and parallel systems, namely, conditional probability tables, can be calculated by referring to the conditional degradation probabilities. Finally, the power of a control unit in a failure model is used as an example. A dynamic fault tree (DFT) is translated into a Bayesian network model, and subsequently extended to a DBN. The results show the state probabilities of an element and the system without repair, with perfect and imperfect repair, and under CBM, with an absorbing set plotted by differential equations and verified. Through referring forward, the reliability value of the control unit is determined in different kinds of modes. Finally, weak nodes are noted in the control unit. PMID:29765629

Constraining uncertainties in water supply reliability in a tropical data scarce basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaune, Alexander; Werner, Micha; Rodriguez, Erasmo; de Fraiture, Charlotte

2015-04-01

Assessing the water supply reliability in river basins is essential for adequate planning and development of irrigated agriculture and urban water systems. In many cases hydrological models are applied to determine the surface water availability in river basins. However, surface water availability and variability is often not appropriately quantified due to epistemic uncertainties, leading to water supply insecurity. The objective of this research is to determine the water supply reliability in order to support planning and development of irrigated agriculture in a tropical, data scarce environment. The approach proposed uses a simple hydrological model, but explicitly includes model parameter uncertainty. A transboundary river basin in the tropical region of Colombia and Venezuela with an approximately area of 2100 km² was selected as a case study. The Budyko hydrological framework was extended to consider climatological input variability and model parameter uncertainty, and through this the surface water reliability to satisfy the irrigation and urban demand was estimated. This provides a spatial estimate of the water supply reliability across the basin. For the middle basin the reliability was found to be less than 30% for most of the months when the water is extracted from an upstream source. Conversely, the monthly water supply reliability was high (r>98%) in the lower basin irrigation areas when water was withdrawn from a source located further downstream. Including model parameter uncertainty provides a complete estimate of the water supply reliability, but that estimate is influenced by the uncertainty in the model. Reducing the uncertainty in the model through improved data and perhaps improved model structure will improve the estimate of the water supply reliability allowing better planning of irrigated agriculture and dependable water allocation decisions.

Maximum Entropy Discrimination Poisson Regression for Software Reliability Modeling.

PubMed

Chatzis, Sotirios P; Andreou, Andreas S

2015-11-01

Reliably predicting software defects is one of the most significant tasks in software engineering. Two of the major components of modern software reliability modeling approaches are: 1) extraction of salient features for software system representation, based on appropriately designed software metrics and 2) development of intricate regression models for count data, to allow effective software reliability data modeling and prediction. Surprisingly, research in the latter frontier of count data regression modeling has been rather limited. More specifically, a lack of simple and efficient algorithms for posterior computation has made the Bayesian approaches appear unattractive, and thus underdeveloped in the context of software reliability modeling. In this paper, we try to address these issues by introducing a novel Bayesian regression model for count data, based on the concept of max-margin data modeling, effected in the context of a fully Bayesian model treatment with simple and efficient posterior distribution updates. Our novel approach yields a more discriminative learning technique, making more effective use of our training data during model inference. In addition, it allows of better handling uncertainty in the modeled data, which can be a significant problem when the training data are limited. We derive elegant inference algorithms for our model under the mean-field paradigm and exhibit its effectiveness using the publicly available benchmark data sets.

Reliability Modeling of Microelectromechanical Systems Using Neural Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perera. J. Sebastian

2000-01-01

Microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) are a broad and rapidly expanding field that is currently receiving a great deal of attention because of the potential to significantly improve the ability to sense, analyze, and control a variety of processes, such as heating and ventilation systems, automobiles, medicine, aeronautical flight, military surveillance, weather forecasting, and space exploration. MEMS are very small and are a blend of electrical and mechanical components, with electrical and mechanical systems on one chip. This research establishes reliability estimation and prediction for MEMS devices at the conceptual design phase using neural networks. At the conceptual design phase, before devices are built and tested, traditional methods of quantifying reliability are inadequate because the device is not in existence and cannot be tested to establish the reliability distributions. A novel approach using neural networks is created to predict the overall reliability of a MEMS device based on its components and each component's attributes. The methodology begins with collecting attribute data (fabrication process, physical specifications, operating environment, property characteristics, packaging, etc.) and reliability data for many types of microengines. The data are partitioned into training data (the majority) and validation data (the remainder). A neural network is applied to the training data (both attribute and reliability); the attributes become the system inputs and reliability data (cycles to failure), the system output. After the neural network is trained with sufficient data. the validation data are used to verify the neural networks provided accurate reliability estimates. Now, the reliability of a new proposed MEMS device can be estimated by using the appropriate trained neural networks developed in this work.

Development of system reliability models for railway bridges.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-07-01

Performance of the railway transportation network depends on the reliability of railway bridges, which can be affected by : various forms of deterioration and extreme environmental conditions. More than half of the railway bridges in US were : built ...

Fatigue reliability of deck structures subjected to correlated crack growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, G. Q.; Garbatov, Y.; Guedes Soares, C.

2013-12-01

The objective of this work is to analyse fatigue reliability of deck structures subjected to correlated crack growth. The stress intensity factors of the correlated cracks are obtained by finite element analysis and based on which the geometry correction functions are derived. The Monte Carlo simulations are applied to predict the statistical descriptors of correlated cracks based on the Paris-Erdogan equation. A probabilistic model of crack growth as a function of time is used to analyse the fatigue reliability of deck structures accounting for the crack propagation correlation. A deck structure is modelled as a series system of stiffened panels, where a stiffened panel is regarded as a parallel system composed of plates and are longitudinal. It has been proven that the method developed here can be conveniently applied to perform the fatigue reliability assessment of structures subjected to correlated crack growth.

Target recognition and scene interpretation in image/video understanding systems based on network-symbolic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuvich, Gary

2004-08-01

Vision is only a part of a system that converts visual information into knowledge structures. These structures drive the vision process, resolving ambiguity and uncertainty via feedback, and provide image understanding, which is an interpretation of visual information in terms of these knowledge models. These mechanisms provide a reliable recognition if the object is occluded or cannot be recognized as a whole. It is hard to split the entire system apart, and reliable solutions to the target recognition problems are possible only within the solution of a more generic Image Understanding Problem. Brain reduces informational and computational complexities, using implicit symbolic coding of features, hierarchical compression, and selective processing of visual information. Biologically inspired Network-Symbolic representation, where both systematic structural/logical methods and neural/statistical methods are parts of a single mechanism, is the most feasible for such models. It converts visual information into relational Network-Symbolic structures, avoiding artificial precise computations of 3-dimensional models. Network-Symbolic Transformations derive abstract structures, which allows for invariant recognition of an object as exemplar of a class. Active vision helps creating consistent models. Attention, separation of figure from ground and perceptual grouping are special kinds of network-symbolic transformations. Such Image/Video Understanding Systems will be reliably recognizing targets.

76 FR 70890 - Fenamidone; Pesticide Tolerances

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-16

.../models/water/index.htm . Based on the Pesticide Root Zone Model/Exposure Analysis Modeling System (PRZM... listed in this unit could also be affected. The North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS... there is reliable information.'' This includes exposure through drinking water and in residential...

The precision and reliability evaluation of 3-dimensional printed damaged bone and prosthesis models by stereo lithography appearance

PubMed Central

Zou, Yun; Han, Qing; Weng, Xisheng; Zou, Yongwei; Yang, Yingying; Zhang, Kesong; Yang, Kerong; Xu, Xiaolin; Wang, Chenyu; Qin, Yanguo; Wang, Jincheng

2018-01-01

Abstract Recently, clinical application of 3D printed model was increasing. However, there was no systemic study for confirming the precision and reliability of 3D printed model. Some senior clinical doctors mistrusted its reliability in clinical application. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the precision and reliability of stereolithography appearance (SLA) 3D printed model. Some related parameters were selected to research the reliability of SLA 3D printed model. The computed tomography (CT) data of bone/prosthesis and model were collected and 3D reconstructed. Some anatomical parameters were measured and statistical analysis was performed; the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to was used to evaluate the similarity between the model and real bone/prosthesis. the absolute difference (mm) and relative difference (%) were conducted. For prosthesis model, the 3-dimensional error was measured. There was no significant difference in the anatomical parameters except max height (MH) of long bone. All the ICCs were greater than 0.990. The maximum absolute and relative difference were 0.45 mm and 1.10%; The 3-dimensional error analysis showed that positive/minus distance were 0.273 mm/0.237 mm. The application of SLA 3D printed model in diagnosis and treatment process of complex orthopedic disease was reliable and precise. PMID:29419675

The precision and reliability evaluation of 3-dimensional printed damaged bone and prosthesis models by stereo lithography appearance.

PubMed

Zou, Yun; Han, Qing; Weng, Xisheng; Zou, Yongwei; Yang, Yingying; Zhang, Kesong; Yang, Kerong; Xu, Xiaolin; Wang, Chenyu; Qin, Yanguo; Wang, Jincheng

2018-02-01

Recently, clinical application of 3D printed model was increasing. However, there was no systemic study for confirming the precision and reliability of 3D printed model. Some senior clinical doctors mistrusted its reliability in clinical application. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the precision and reliability of stereolithography appearance (SLA) 3D printed model.Some related parameters were selected to research the reliability of SLA 3D printed model. The computed tomography (CT) data of bone/prosthesis and model were collected and 3D reconstructed. Some anatomical parameters were measured and statistical analysis was performed; the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to was used to evaluate the similarity between the model and real bone/prosthesis. the absolute difference (mm) and relative difference (%) were conducted. For prosthesis model, the 3-dimensional error was measured.There was no significant difference in the anatomical parameters except max height (MH) of long bone. All the ICCs were greater than 0.990. The maximum absolute and relative difference were 0.45 mm and 1.10%; The 3-dimensional error analysis showed that positive/minus distance were 0.273 mm/0.237 mm.The application of SLA 3D printed model in diagnosis and treatment process of complex orthopedic disease was reliable and precise.

Energy Systems Integration News - October 2016 | Energy Systems Integration

Science.gov Websites

SuperModels Game," a sophisticated game model developed by the National Association of Regulatory Utility maintain reliability, affordability, and utility company competitiveness. Those not invited to the game

A Survey of Techniques for Modeling and Improving Reliability of Computing Systems

DOE PAGES

Mittal, Sparsh; Vetter, Jeffrey S.

2015-04-24

Recent trends of aggressive technology scaling have greatly exacerbated the occurrences and impact of faults in computing systems. This has made `reliability' a first-order design constraint. To address the challenges of reliability, several techniques have been proposed. In this study, we provide a survey of architectural techniques for improving resilience of computing systems. We especially focus on techniques proposed for microarchitectural components, such as processor registers, functional units, cache and main memory etc. In addition, we discuss techniques proposed for non-volatile memory, GPUs and 3D-stacked processors. To underscore the similarities and differences of the techniques, we classify them based onmore » their key characteristics. We also review the metrics proposed to quantify vulnerability of processor structures. Finally, we believe that this survey will help researchers, system-architects and processor designers in gaining insights into the techniques for improving reliability of computing systems.« less

A Survey of Techniques for Modeling and Improving Reliability of Computing Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mittal, Sparsh; Vetter, Jeffrey S.

Recent trends of aggressive technology scaling have greatly exacerbated the occurrences and impact of faults in computing systems. This has made `reliability' a first-order design constraint. To address the challenges of reliability, several techniques have been proposed. In this study, we provide a survey of architectural techniques for improving resilience of computing systems. We especially focus on techniques proposed for microarchitectural components, such as processor registers, functional units, cache and main memory etc. In addition, we discuss techniques proposed for non-volatile memory, GPUs and 3D-stacked processors. To underscore the similarities and differences of the techniques, we classify them based onmore » their key characteristics. We also review the metrics proposed to quantify vulnerability of processor structures. Finally, we believe that this survey will help researchers, system-architects and processor designers in gaining insights into the techniques for improving reliability of computing systems.« less

Bioresorbable polymer coated drug eluting stent: a model study.

PubMed

Rossi, Filippo; Casalini, Tommaso; Raffa, Edoardo; Masi, Maurizio; Perale, Giuseppe

2012-07-02

In drug eluting stent technologies, an increased demand for better control, higher reliability, and enhanced performances of drug delivery systems emerged in the last years and thus offered the opportunity to introduce model-based approaches aimed to overcome the remarkable limits of trial-and-error methods. In this context a mathematical model was studied, based on detailed conservation equations and taking into account the main physical-chemical mechanisms involved in polymeric coating degradation, drug release, and restenosis inhibition. It allowed highlighting the interdependence between factors affecting each of these phenomena and, in particular, the influence of stent design parameters on drug antirestenotic efficacy. Therefore, the here-proposed model is aimed to simulate the diffusional release, for both in vitro and the in vivo conditions: results were verified against various literature data, confirming the reliability of the parameter estimation procedure. The hierarchical structure of this model also allows easily modifying the set of equations describing restenosis evolution to enhance model reliability and taking advantage of the deep understanding of physiological mechanisms governing the different stages of smooth muscle cell growth and proliferation. In addition, thanks to its simplicity and to the very low system requirements and central processing unit (CPU) time, our model allows obtaining immediate views of system behavior.

Probabilistic risk assessment for a loss of coolant accident in McMaster Nuclear Reactor and application of reliability physics model for modeling human reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, Taesung

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was conducted for a loss of coolant accident, (LOCA) in the McMaster Nuclear Reactor (MNR). A level 1 PRA was completed including event sequence modeling, system modeling, and quantification. To support the quantification of the accident sequence identified, data analysis using the Bayesian method and human reliability analysis (HRA) using the accident sequence evaluation procedure (ASEP) approach were performed. Since human performance in research reactors is significantly different from that in power reactors, a time-oriented HRA model (reliability physics model) was applied for the human error probability (HEP) estimation of the core relocation. This model is based on two competing random variables: phenomenological time and performance time. The response surface and direct Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling were applied for estimating the phenomenological time, whereas the performance time was obtained from interviews with operators. An appropriate probability distribution for the phenomenological time was assigned by statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The human error probability (HEP) for the core relocation was estimated from these two competing quantities: phenomenological time and operators' performance time. The sensitivity of each probability distribution in human reliability estimation was investigated. In order to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted HEPs, a Bayesian approach was selected due to its capability of incorporating uncertainties in model itself and the parameters in that model. The HEP from the current time-oriented model was compared with that from the ASEP approach. Both results were used to evaluate the sensitivity of alternative huinan reliability modeling for the manual core relocation in the LOCA risk model. This exercise demonstrated the applicability of a reliability physics model supplemented with a. Bayesian approach for modeling human reliability and its potential usefulness of quantifying model uncertainty as sensitivity analysis in the PRA model.

A study on the real-time reliability of on-board equipment of train control system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yong; Li, Shiwei

2018-05-01

Real-time reliability evaluation is conducive to establishing a condition based maintenance system for the purpose of guaranteeing continuous train operation. According to the inherent characteristics of the on-board equipment, the connotation of reliability evaluation of on-board equipment is defined and the evaluation index of real-time reliability is provided in this paper. From the perspective of methodology and practical application, the real-time reliability of the on-board equipment is discussed in detail, and the method of evaluating the realtime reliability of on-board equipment at component level based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is proposed. In this method the performance degradation data is used directly to realize the accurate perception of the hidden state transition process of on-board equipment, which can achieve a better description of the real-time reliability of the equipment.

Fast Reliability Assessing Method for Distribution Network with Distributed Renewable Energy Generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Fan; Huang, Shaoxiong; Ding, Jinjin; Ding, Jinjin; Gao, Bo; Xie, Yuguang; Wang, Xiaoming

2018-01-01

This paper proposes a fast reliability assessing method for distribution grid with distributed renewable energy generation. First, the Weibull distribution and the Beta distribution are used to describe the probability distribution characteristics of wind speed and solar irradiance respectively, and the models of wind farm, solar park and local load are built for reliability assessment. Then based on power system production cost simulation probability discretization and linearization power flow, a optimal power flow objected with minimum cost of conventional power generation is to be resolved. Thus a reliability assessment for distribution grid is implemented fast and accurately. The Loss Of Load Probability (LOLP) and Expected Energy Not Supplied (EENS) are selected as the reliability index, a simulation for IEEE RBTS BUS6 system in MATLAB indicates that the fast reliability assessing method calculates the reliability index much faster with the accuracy ensured when compared with Monte Carlo method.

Beyond the buildingcentric approach: A vision for an integrated evaluation of sustainable buildings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conte, Emilia, E-mail: conte@poliba.it; Monno, Valeria, E-mail: vmonno@poliba.it

2012-04-15

The available sustainable building evaluation systems have produced a new environmental design paradigm. However, there is an increasing need to overcome the buildingcentric approach of these systems, in order to further exploit their innovate potential for sustainable building practices. The paper takes this challenge by developing a cross-scale evaluation approach focusing on the reliability of sustainable building design solutions for the context in which the building is situated. An integrated building-urban evaluation model is proposed based on the urban matrix, which is a conceptualisation of the built environment as a social-ecological system. The model aims at evaluating the sustainability ofmore » a building considering it as an active entity contributing to the resilience of the urban matrix. Few holistic performance indicators are used for evaluating such contribution, so expressing the building reliability. The discussion on the efficacy of the model shows that it works as a heuristic tool, supporting the acquisition of a better insight into the complexity which characterises the relationships between the building and the built environment sustainability. Shading new lights on the meaning of sustainable buildings, the model can play a positive role in innovating sustainable building design practices, thus complementing current evaluation systems. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We model an integrated building-urban evaluation approach. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The urban matrix represents the social-ecological functioning of the urban context. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We introduce the concept of reliability to evaluate sustainable buildings. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Holistic indicators express the building reliability. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The evaluation model works as heuristic tool and complements other tools.« less

Research on Novel Algorithms for Smart Grid Reliability Assessment and Economic Dispatch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Wenjin

In this dissertation, several studies of electric power system reliability and economy assessment methods are presented. To be more precise, several algorithms in evaluating power system reliability and economy are studied. Furthermore, two novel algorithms are applied to this field and their simulation results are compared with conventional results. As the electrical power system develops towards extra high voltage, remote distance, large capacity and regional networking, the application of a number of new technique equipments and the electric market system have be gradually established, and the results caused by power cut has become more and more serious. The electrical power system needs the highest possible reliability due to its complication and security. In this dissertation the Boolean logic Driven Markov Process (BDMP) method is studied and applied to evaluate power system reliability. This approach has several benefits. It allows complex dynamic models to be defined, while maintaining its easy readability as conventional methods. This method has been applied to evaluate IEEE reliability test system. The simulation results obtained are close to IEEE experimental data which means that it could be used for future study of the system reliability. Besides reliability, modern power system is expected to be more economic. This dissertation presents a novel evolutionary algorithm named as quantum evolutionary membrane algorithm (QEPS), which combines the concept and theory of quantum-inspired evolutionary algorithm and membrane computation, to solve the economic dispatch problem in renewable power system with on land and offshore wind farms. The case derived from real data is used for simulation tests. Another conventional evolutionary algorithm is also used to solve the same problem for comparison. The experimental results show that the proposed method is quick and accurate to obtain the optimal solution which is the minimum cost for electricity supplied by wind farm system.

Reliability Assessment for COTS Components in Space Flight Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krishnan, G. S.; Mazzuchi, Thomas A.

2001-01-01

Systems built for space flight applications usually demand very high degree of performance and a very high level of accuracy. Hence, the design engineers are often prone to selecting state-of-art technologies for inclusion in their system design. The shrinking budgets also necessitate use of COTS (Commercial Off-The-Shelf) components, which are construed as being less expensive. The performance and accuracy requirements for space flight applications are much more stringent than those for the commercial applications. The quantity of systems designed and developed for space applications are much lower in number than those produced for the commercial applications. With a given set of requirements, are these COTS components reliable? This paper presents a model for assessing the reliability of COTS components in space applications and the associated affect on the system reliability. We illustrate the method with a real application.

Modeling human disease using organotypic cultures.

PubMed

Schweiger, Pawel J; Jensen, Kim B

2016-12-01

Reliable disease models are needed in order to improve quality of healthcare. This includes gaining better understanding of disease mechanisms, developing new therapeutic interventions and personalizing treatment. Up-to-date, the majority of our knowledge about disease states comes from in vivo animal models and in vitro cell culture systems. However, it has been exceedingly difficult to model disease at the tissue level. Since recently, the gap between cell line studies and in vivo modeling has been narrowing thanks to progress in biomaterials and stem cell research. Development of reliable 3D culture systems has enabled a rapid expansion of sophisticated in vitro models. Here we focus on some of the latest advances and future perspectives in 3D organoids for human disease modeling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal Wind Power Uncertainty Intervals for Electricity Market Operation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Ying; Zhou, Zhi; Botterud, Audun

It is important to select an appropriate uncertainty level of the wind power forecast for power system scheduling and electricity market operation. Traditional methods hedge against a predefined level of wind power uncertainty, such as a specific confidence interval or uncertainty set, which leaves the questions of how to best select the appropriate uncertainty levels. To bridge this gap, this paper proposes a model to optimize the forecast uncertainty intervals of wind power for power system scheduling problems, with the aim of achieving the best trade-off between economics and reliability. Then we reformulate and linearize the models into a mixedmore » integer linear programming (MILP) without strong assumptions on the shape of the probability distribution. In order to invest the impacts on cost, reliability, and prices in a electricity market, we apply the proposed model on a twosettlement electricity market based on a six-bus test system and on a power system representing the U.S. state of Illinois. The results show that the proposed method can not only help to balance the economics and reliability of the power system scheduling, but also help to stabilize the energy prices in electricity market operation.« less

Rapid Modeling and Analysis Tools: Evolution, Status, Needs and Directions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Stone, Thomas J.; Ransom, Jonathan B. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Advanced aerospace systems are becoming increasingly more complex, and customers are demanding lower cost, higher performance, and high reliability. Increased demands are placed on the design engineers to collaborate and integrate design needs and objectives early in the design process to minimize risks that may occur later in the design development stage. High performance systems require better understanding of system sensitivities much earlier in the design process to meet these goals. The knowledge, skills, intuition, and experience of an individual design engineer will need to be extended significantly for the next generation of aerospace system designs. Then a collaborative effort involving the designer, rapid and reliable analysis tools and virtual experts will result in advanced aerospace systems that are safe, reliable, and efficient. This paper discusses the evolution, status, needs and directions for rapid modeling and analysis tools for structural analysis. First, the evolution of computerized design and analysis tools is briefly described. Next, the status of representative design and analysis tools is described along with a brief statement on their functionality. Then technology advancements to achieve rapid modeling and analysis are identified. Finally, potential future directions including possible prototype configurations are proposed.

A Novel Solution-Technique Applied to a Novel WAAS Architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, J.

1998-01-01

The Federal Aviation Administration has embarked on an historic task of modernizing and significantly improving the national air transportation system. One system that uses the Global Positioning System (GPS) to determine aircraft navigational information is called the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS). This paper describes a reliability assessment of one candidate system architecture for the WAAS. A unique aspect of this study regards the modeling and solution of a candidate system that allows a novel cold sparing scheme. The cold spare is a WAAS communications satellite that is fabricated and launched after a predetermined number of orbiting satellite failures have occurred and after some stochastic fabrication time transpires. Because these satellites are complex systems with redundant components, they exhibit an increasing failure rate with a Weibull time to failure distribution. Moreover, the cold spare satellite build-time is Weibull and upon launch is considered to be a good-as-new system with an increasing failure rate and a Weibull time to failure distribution as well. The reliability model for this system is non-Markovian because three distinct system clocks are required: the time to failure of the orbiting satellites, the build time for the cold spare, and the time to failure for the launched spare satellite. A powerful dynamic fault tree modeling notation and Monte Carlo simulation technique with importance sampling are shown to arrive at a reliability prediction for a 10 year mission.

Identification of reliable gridded reference data for statistical downscaling methods in Alberta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eum, H. I.; Gupta, A.

2017-12-01

Climate models provide essential information to assess impacts of climate change at regional and global scales. However, statistical downscaling methods have been applied to prepare climate model data for various applications such as hydrologic and ecologic modelling at a watershed scale. As the reliability and (spatial and temporal) resolution of statistically downscaled climate data mainly depend on a reference data, identifying the most reliable reference data is crucial for statistical downscaling. A growing number of gridded climate products are available for key climate variables which are main input data to regional modelling systems. However, inconsistencies in these climate products, for example, different combinations of climate variables, varying data domains and data lengths and data accuracy varying with physiographic characteristics of the landscape, have caused significant challenges in selecting the most suitable reference climate data for various environmental studies and modelling. Employing various observation-based daily gridded climate products available in public domain, i.e. thin plate spline regression products (ANUSPLIN and TPS), inverse distance method (Alberta Townships), and numerical climate model (North American Regional Reanalysis) and an optimum interpolation technique (Canadian Precipitation Analysis), this study evaluates the accuracy of the climate products at each grid point by comparing with the Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data (AHCCD) observations for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature over the province of Alberta. Based on the performance of climate products at AHCCD stations, we ranked the reliability of these publically available climate products corresponding to the elevations of stations discretized into several classes. According to the rank of climate products for each elevation class, we identified the most reliable climate products based on the elevation of target points. A web-based system was developed to allow users to easily select the most reliable reference climate data at each target point based on the elevation of grid cell. By constructing the best combination of reference data for the study domain, the accurate and reliable statistically downscaled climate projections could be significantly improved.

A general graphical user interface for automatic reliability modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liceaga, Carlos A.; Siewiorek, Daniel P.

1991-01-01

Reported here is a general Graphical User Interface (GUI) for automatic reliability modeling of Processor Memory Switch (PMS) structures using a Markov model. This GUI is based on a hierarchy of windows. One window has graphical editing capabilities for specifying the system's communication structure, hierarchy, reconfiguration capabilities, and requirements. Other windows have field texts, popup menus, and buttons for specifying parameters and selecting actions. An example application of the GUI is given.

Assessment of spare reliability for multi-state computer networks within tolerable packet unreliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yi-Kuei; Huang, Cheng-Fu

2015-04-01

From a quality of service viewpoint, the transmission packet unreliability and transmission time are both critical performance indicators in a computer system when assessing the Internet quality for supervisors and customers. A computer system is usually modelled as a network topology where each branch denotes a transmission medium and each vertex represents a station of servers. Almost every branch has multiple capacities/states due to failure, partial failure, maintenance, etc. This type of network is known as a multi-state computer network (MSCN). This paper proposes an efficient algorithm that computes the system reliability, i.e., the probability that a specified amount of data can be sent through k (k ≥ 2) disjoint minimal paths within both the tolerable packet unreliability and time threshold. Furthermore, two routing schemes are established in advance to indicate the main and spare minimal paths to increase the system reliability (referred to as spare reliability). Thus, the spare reliability can be readily computed according to the routing scheme.

Statistical modeling of software reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Douglas R.

1992-01-01

This working paper discusses the statistical simulation part of a controlled software development experiment being conducted under the direction of the System Validation Methods Branch, Information Systems Division, NASA Langley Research Center. The experiment uses guidance and control software (GCS) aboard a fictitious planetary landing spacecraft: real-time control software operating on a transient mission. Software execution is simulated to study the statistical aspects of reliability and other failure characteristics of the software during development, testing, and random usage. Quantification of software reliability is a major goal. Various reliability concepts are discussed. Experiments are described for performing simulations and collecting appropriate simulated software performance and failure data. This data is then used to make statistical inferences about the quality of the software development and verification processes as well as inferences about the reliability of software versions and reliability growth under random testing and debugging.

Analyzing the effect of transmissivity uncertainty on the reliability of a model of the northwestern Sahara aquifer system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zammouri, Mounira; Ribeiro, Luis

2017-05-01

Groundwater flow model of the transboundary Saharan aquifer system is developed in 2003 and used for management and decision-making by Algeria, Tunisia and Libya. In decision-making processes, reliability plays a decisive role. This paper looks into the reliability assessment of the Saharan aquifers model. It aims to detect the shortcomings of the model considered properly calibrated. After presenting the calibration results of the effort modelling in 2003, the uncertainty in the model which arising from the lack of the groundwater level and the transmissivity data is analyzed using kriging technique and stochastic approach. The structural analysis of piezometry in steady state and logarithms of transmissivity were carried out for the Continental Intercalaire (CI) and the Complexe Terminal (CT) aquifers. The available data (piezometry and transmissivity) were compared to the calculated values, using geostatistics approach. Using a stochastic approach, 2500 realizations of a log-normal random transmissivity field of the CI aquifer has been performed to assess the errors of the model output, due to the uncertainty in transmissivity. Two types of bad calibration are shown. In some regions, calibration should be improved using the available data. In others areas, undertaking the model refinement requires gathering new data to enhance the aquifer system knowledge. Stochastic simulations' results showed that the calculated drawdowns in 2050 could be higher than the values predicted by the calibrated model.

A Comparison of Various Stress Rupture Life Models for Orbiter Composite Pressure Vessels and Confidence Intervals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Glaser, Ronald

2007-01-01

In conjunction with a recent NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) investigation of flight worthiness of Kevlar Overwrapped Composite Pressure Vessels (COPVs) on board the Orbiter, two stress rupture life prediction models were proposed independently by Phoenix and by Glaser. In this paper, the use of these models to determine the system reliability of 24 COPVs currently in service on board the Orbiter is discussed. The models are briefly described, compared to each other, and model parameters and parameter uncertainties are also reviewed to understand confidence in reliability estimation as well as the sensitivities of these parameters in influencing overall predicted reliability levels. Differences and similarities in the various models will be compared via stress rupture reliability curves (stress ratio vs. lifetime plots). Also outlined will be the differences in the underlying model premises, and predictive outcomes. Sources of error and sensitivities in the models will be examined and discussed based on sensitivity analysis and confidence interval determination. Confidence interval results and their implications will be discussed for the models by Phoenix and Glaser.

A Methodology for Quantifying Certain Design Requirements During the Design Phase

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, Timothy; Rhodes, Russel

2005-01-01

A methodology for developing and balancing quantitative design requirements for safety, reliability, and maintainability has been proposed. Conceived as the basis of a more rational approach to the design of spacecraft, the methodology would also be applicable to the design of automobiles, washing machines, television receivers, or almost any other commercial product. Heretofore, it has been common practice to start by determining the requirements for reliability of elements of a spacecraft or other system to ensure a given design life for the system. Next, safety requirements are determined by assessing the total reliability of the system and adding redundant components and subsystems necessary to attain safety goals. As thus described, common practice leaves the maintainability burden to fall to chance; therefore, there is no control of recurring costs or of the responsiveness of the system. The means that have been used in assessing maintainability have been oriented toward determining the logistical sparing of components so that the components are available when needed. The process established for developing and balancing quantitative requirements for safety (S), reliability (R), and maintainability (M) derives and integrates NASA s top-level safety requirements and the controls needed to obtain program key objectives for safety and recurring cost (see figure). Being quantitative, the process conveniently uses common mathematical models. Even though the process is shown as being worked from the top down, it can also be worked from the bottom up. This process uses three math models: (1) the binomial distribution (greaterthan- or-equal-to case), (2) reliability for a series system, and (3) the Poisson distribution (less-than-or-equal-to case). The zero-fail case for the binomial distribution approximates the commonly known exponential distribution or "constant failure rate" distribution. Either model can be used. The binomial distribution was selected for modeling flexibility because it conveniently addresses both the zero-fail and failure cases. The failure case is typically used for unmanned spacecraft as with missiles.

[A reliability growth assessment method and its application in the development of equipment in space cabin].

PubMed

Chen, J D; Sun, H L

1999-04-01

Objective. To assess and predict reliability of an equipment dynamically by making full use of various test informations in the development of products. Method. A new reliability growth assessment method based on army material system analysis activity (AMSAA) model was developed. The method is composed of the AMSAA model and test data conversion technology. Result. The assessment and prediction results of a space-borne equipment conform to its expectations. Conclusion. It is suggested that this method should be further researched and popularized.

Evaluating reliability of WSN with sleep/wake-up interfering nodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Distefano, Salvatore

2013-10-01

A wireless sensor network (WSN) (singular and plural of acronyms are spelled the same) is a distributed system composed of autonomous sensor nodes wireless connected and randomly scattered into a geographical area to cooperatively monitor physical or environmental conditions. Adequate techniques and strategies are required to manage a WSN so that it works properly, observing specific quantities and metrics to evaluate the WSN operational conditions. Among them, one of the most important is the reliability. Considering a WSN as a system composed of sensor nodes the system reliability approach can be applied, thus expressing the WSN reliability in terms of its nodes' reliability. More specifically, since often standby power management policies are applied at node level and interferences among nodes may arise, a WSN can be considered as a dynamic system. In this article we therefore consider the WSN reliability evaluation problem from the dynamic system reliability perspective. Static-structural interactions are specified by the WSN topology. Sleep/wake-up standby policies and interferences due to wireless communications can be instead considered as dynamic aspects. Thus, in order to represent and to evaluate the WSN reliability, we use dynamic reliability block diagrams and Petri nets. The proposed technique allows to overcome the limits of Markov models when considering non-linear discharge processes, since they cannot adequately represent the aging processes. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the technique, we investigate some specific WSN network topologies, providing guidelines for their representation and evaluation.

Fault trees for decision making in systems analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lambert, Howard E.

1975-10-09

The application of fault tree analysis (FTA) to system safety and reliability is presented within the framework of system safety analysis. The concepts and techniques involved in manual and automated fault tree construction are described and their differences noted. The theory of mathematical reliability pertinent to FTA is presented with emphasis on engineering applications. An outline of the quantitative reliability techniques of the Reactor Safety Study is given. Concepts of probabilistic importance are presented within the fault tree framework and applied to the areas of system design, diagnosis and simulation. The computer code IMPORTANCE ranks basic events and cut setsmore » according to a sensitivity analysis. A useful feature of the IMPORTANCE code is that it can accept relative failure data as input. The output of the IMPORTANCE code can assist an analyst in finding weaknesses in system design and operation, suggest the most optimal course of system upgrade, and determine the optimal location of sensors within a system. A general simulation model of system failure in terms of fault tree logic is described. The model is intended for efficient diagnosis of the causes of system failure in the event of a system breakdown. It can also be used to assist an operator in making decisions under a time constraint regarding the future course of operations. The model is well suited for computer implementation. New results incorporated in the simulation model include an algorithm to generate repair checklists on the basis of fault tree logic and a one-step-ahead optimization procedure that minimizes the expected time to diagnose system failure.« less

Sensor Data Fusion with Z-Numbers and Its Application in Fault Diagnosis

PubMed Central

Jiang, Wen; Xie, Chunhe; Zhuang, Miaoyan; Shou, Yehang; Tang, Yongchuan

2016-01-01

Sensor data fusion technology is widely employed in fault diagnosis. The information in a sensor data fusion system is characterized by not only fuzziness, but also partial reliability. Uncertain information of sensors, including randomness, fuzziness, etc., has been extensively studied recently. However, the reliability of a sensor is often overlooked or cannot be analyzed adequately. A Z-number, Z = (A, B), can represent the fuzziness and the reliability of information simultaneously, where the first component A represents a fuzzy restriction on the values of uncertain variables and the second component B is a measure of the reliability of A. In order to model and process the uncertainties in a sensor data fusion system reasonably, in this paper, a novel method combining the Z-number and Dempster–Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is proposed, where the Z-number is used to model the fuzziness and reliability of the sensor data and the D-S evidence theory is used to fuse the uncertain information of Z-numbers. The main advantages of the proposed method are that it provides a more robust measure of reliability to the sensor data, and the complementary information of multi-sensors reduces the uncertainty of the fault recognition, thus enhancing the reliability of fault detection. PMID:27649193

Optimizing the Reliability and Performance of Service Composition Applications with Fault Tolerance in Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Wu, Zhao; Xiong, Naixue; Huang, Yannong; Xu, Degang; Hu, Chunyang

2015-01-01

The services composition technology provides flexible methods for building service composition applications (SCAs) in wireless sensor networks (WSNs). The high reliability and high performance of SCAs help services composition technology promote the practical application of WSNs. The optimization methods for reliability and performance used for traditional software systems are mostly based on the instantiations of software components, which are inapplicable and inefficient in the ever-changing SCAs in WSNs. In this paper, we consider the SCAs with fault tolerance in WSNs. Based on a Universal Generating Function (UGF) we propose a reliability and performance model of SCAs in WSNs, which generalizes a redundancy optimization problem to a multi-state system. Based on this model, an efficient optimization algorithm for reliability and performance of SCAs in WSNs is developed based on a Genetic Algorithm (GA) to find the optimal structure of SCAs with fault-tolerance in WSNs. In order to examine the feasibility of our algorithm, we have evaluated the performance. Furthermore, the interrelationships between the reliability, performance and cost are investigated. In addition, a distinct approach to determine the most suitable parameters in the suggested algorithm is proposed. PMID:26561818

A unified approach for squeal instability analysis of disc brakes with two types of random-fuzzy uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lü, Hui; Shangguan, Wen-Bin; Yu, Dejie

2017-09-01

Automotive brake systems are always subjected to various types of uncertainties and two types of random-fuzzy uncertainties may exist in the brakes. In this paper, a unified approach is proposed for squeal instability analysis of disc brakes with two types of random-fuzzy uncertainties. In the proposed approach, two uncertainty analysis models with mixed variables are introduced to model the random-fuzzy uncertainties. The first one is the random and fuzzy model, in which random variables and fuzzy variables exist simultaneously and independently. The second one is the fuzzy random model, in which uncertain parameters are all treated as random variables while their distribution parameters are expressed as fuzzy numbers. Firstly, the fuzziness is discretized by using α-cut technique and the two uncertainty analysis models are simplified into random-interval models. Afterwards, by temporarily neglecting interval uncertainties, the random-interval models are degraded into random models, in which the expectations, variances, reliability indexes and reliability probabilities of system stability functions are calculated. And then, by reconsidering the interval uncertainties, the bounds of the expectations, variances, reliability indexes and reliability probabilities are computed based on Taylor series expansion. Finally, by recomposing the analysis results at each α-cut level, the fuzzy reliability indexes and probabilities can be obtained, by which the brake squeal instability can be evaluated. The proposed approach gives a general framework to deal with both types of random-fuzzy uncertainties that may exist in the brakes and its effectiveness is demonstrated by numerical examples. It will be a valuable supplement to the systematic study of brake squeal considering uncertainty.

Reliability Analysis and Optimal Release Problem Considering Maintenance Time of Software Components for an Embedded OSS Porting Phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamura, Yoshinobu; Yamada, Shigeru

OSS (open source software) systems which serve as key components of critical infrastructures in our social life are still ever-expanding now. Especially, embedded OSS systems have been gaining a lot of attention in the embedded system area, i.e., Android, BusyBox, TRON, etc. However, the poor handling of quality problem and customer support prohibit the progress of embedded OSS. Also, it is difficult for developers to assess the reliability and portability of embedded OSS on a single-board computer. In this paper, we propose a method of software reliability assessment based on flexible hazard rates for the embedded OSS. Also, we analyze actual data of software failure-occurrence time-intervals to show numerical examples of software reliability assessment for the embedded OSS. Moreover, we compare the proposed hazard rate model for the embedded OSS with the typical conventional hazard rate models by using the comparison criteria of goodness-of-fit. Furthermore, we discuss the optimal software release problem for the porting-phase based on the total expected software maintenance cost.

Composing, Analyzing and Validating Software Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheldon, Frederick T.

1998-10-01

This research has been conducted at the Computational Sciences Division of the Information Sciences Directorate at Ames Research Center (Automated Software Engineering Grp). The principle work this summer has been to review and refine the agenda that were carried forward from last summer. Formal specifications provide good support for designing a functionally correct system, however they are weak at incorporating non-functional performance requirements (like reliability). Techniques which utilize stochastic Petri nets (SPNs) are good for evaluating the performance and reliability for a system, but they may be too abstract and cumbersome from the stand point of specifying and evaluating functional behavior. Therefore, one major objective of this research is to provide an integrated approach to assist the user in specifying both functionality (qualitative: mutual exclusion and synchronization) and performance requirements (quantitative: reliability and execution deadlines). In this way, the merits of a powerful modeling technique for performability analysis (using SPNs) can be combined with a well-defined formal specification language. In doing so, we can come closer to providing a formal approach to designing a functionally correct system that meets reliability and performance goals.

Composing, Analyzing and Validating Software Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheldon, Frederick T.

1998-01-01

This research has been conducted at the Computational Sciences Division of the Information Sciences Directorate at Ames Research Center (Automated Software Engineering Grp). The principle work this summer has been to review and refine the agenda that were carried forward from last summer. Formal specifications provide good support for designing a functionally correct system, however they are weak at incorporating non-functional performance requirements (like reliability). Techniques which utilize stochastic Petri nets (SPNs) are good for evaluating the performance and reliability for a system, but they may be too abstract and cumbersome from the stand point of specifying and evaluating functional behavior. Therefore, one major objective of this research is to provide an integrated approach to assist the user in specifying both functionality (qualitative: mutual exclusion and synchronization) and performance requirements (quantitative: reliability and execution deadlines). In this way, the merits of a powerful modeling technique for performability analysis (using SPNs) can be combined with a well-defined formal specification language. In doing so, we can come closer to providing a formal approach to designing a functionally correct system that meets reliability and performance goals.

A Statistical Testing Approach for Quantifying Software Reliability; Application to an Example System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chu, Tsong-Lun; Varuttamaseni, Athi; Baek, Joo-Seok

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) encourages the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) technology in all regulatory matters, to the extent supported by the state-of-the-art in PRA methods and data. Although much has been accomplished in the area of risk-informed regulation, risk assessment for digital systems has not been fully developed. The NRC established a plan for research on digital systems to identify and develop methods, analytical tools, and regulatory guidance for (1) including models of digital systems in the PRAs of nuclear power plants (NPPs), and (2) incorporating digital systems in the NRC's risk-informed licensing and oversight activities.more » Under NRC's sponsorship, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) explored approaches for addressing the failures of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in the current NPP PRA framework. Specific areas investigated included PRA modeling digital hardware, development of a philosophical basis for defining software failure, and identification of desirable attributes of quantitative software reliability methods. Based on the earlier research, statistical testing is considered a promising method for quantifying software reliability. This paper describes a statistical software testing approach for quantifying software reliability and applies it to the loop-operating control system (LOCS) of an experimental loop of the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL).« less

Care 3, Phase 1, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stiffler, J. J.; Bryant, L. A.; Guccione, L.

1979-01-01

A computer program to aid in accessing the reliability of fault tolerant avionics systems was developed. A simple mathematical expression was used to evaluate the reliability of any redundant configuration over any interval during which the failure rates and coverage parameters remained unaffected by configuration changes. Provision was made for convolving such expressions in order to evaluate the reliability of a dual mode system. A coverage model was also developed to determine the various relevant coverage coefficients as a function of the available hardware and software fault detector characteristics, and subsequent isolation and recovery delay statistics.

A Sustainable, Reliable Mission-Systems Architecture that Supports a System of Systems Approach to Space Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Steve; Orr, Jim; O'Neil, Graham

2004-01-01

A mission-systems architecture based on a highly modular "systems of systems" infrastructure utilizing open-standards hardware and software interfaces as the enabling technology is absolutely essential for an affordable and sustainable space exploration program. This architecture requires (a) robust communication between heterogeneous systems, (b) high reliability, (c) minimal mission-to-mission reconfiguration, (d) affordable development, system integration, and verification of systems, and (e) minimum sustaining engineering. This paper proposes such an architecture. Lessons learned from the space shuttle program are applied to help define and refine the model.

Semi-Markov adjunction to the Computer-Aided Markov Evaluator (CAME)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosch, Gene; Hutchins, Monica A.; Leong, Frank J.; Babcock, Philip S., IV

1988-01-01

The rule-based Computer-Aided Markov Evaluator (CAME) program was expanded in its ability to incorporate the effect of fault-handling processes into the construction of a reliability model. The fault-handling processes are modeled as semi-Markov events and CAME constructs and appropriate semi-Markov model. To solve the model, the program outputs it in a form which can be directly solved with the Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator (SURE) program. As a means of evaluating the alterations made to the CAME program, the program is used to model the reliability of portions of the Integrated Airframe/Propulsion Control System Architecture (IAPSA 2) reference configuration. The reliability predictions are compared with a previous analysis. The results bear out the feasibility of utilizing CAME to generate appropriate semi-Markov models to model fault-handling processes.

Towards Behavioral Reflexion Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ackermann, Christopher; Lindvall, Mikael; Cleaveland, Rance

2009-01-01

Software architecture has become essential in the struggle to manage today s increasingly large and complex systems. Software architecture views are created to capture important system characteristics on an abstract and, thus, comprehensible level. As the system is implemented and later maintained, it often deviates from the original design specification. Such deviations can have implication for the quality of the system, such as reliability, security, and maintainability. Software architecture compliance checking approaches, such as the reflexion model technique, have been proposed to address this issue by comparing the implementation to a model of the systems architecture design. However, architecture compliance checking approaches focus solely on structural characteristics and ignore behavioral conformance. This is especially an issue in Systems-of- Systems. Systems-of-Systems (SoS) are decompositions of large systems, into smaller systems for the sake of flexibility. Deviations of the implementation to its behavioral design often reduce the reliability of the entire SoS. An approach is needed that supports the reasoning about behavioral conformance on architecture level. In order to address this issue, we have developed an approach for comparing the implementation of a SoS to an architecture model of its behavioral design. The approach follows the idea of reflexion models and adopts it to support the compliance checking of behaviors. In this paper, we focus on sequencing properties as they play an important role in many SoS. Sequencing deviations potentially have a severe impact on the SoS correctness and qualities. The desired behavioral specification is defined in UML sequence diagram notation and behaviors are extracted from the SoS implementation. The behaviors are then mapped to the model of the desired behavior and the two are compared. Finally, a reflexion model is constructed that shows the deviations between behavioral design and implementation. This paper discusses the approach and shows how it can be applied to investigate reliability issues in SoS.

Design and reliability analysis of DP-3 dynamic positioning control architecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Fang; Wan, Lei; Jiang, Da-Peng; Xu, Yu-Ru

2011-12-01

As the exploration and exploitation of oil and gas proliferate throughout deepwater area, the requirements on the reliability of dynamic positioning system become increasingly stringent. The control objective ensuring safety operation at deep water will not be met by a single controller for dynamic positioning. In order to increase the availability and reliability of dynamic positioning control system, the triple redundancy hardware and software control architectures were designed and developed according to the safe specifications of DP-3 classification notation for dynamically positioned ships and rigs. The hardware redundant configuration takes the form of triple-redundant hot standby configuration including three identical operator stations and three real-time control computers which connect each other through dual networks. The function of motion control and redundancy management of control computers were implemented by software on the real-time operating system VxWorks. The software realization of task loose synchronization, majority voting and fault detection were presented in details. A hierarchical software architecture was planed during the development of software, consisting of application layer, real-time layer and physical layer. The behavior of the DP-3 dynamic positioning control system was modeled by a Markov model to analyze its reliability. The effects of variation in parameters on the reliability measures were investigated. The time domain dynamic simulation was carried out on a deepwater drilling rig to prove the feasibility of the proposed control architecture.

Reliability and Productivity Modeling for the Optimization of Separated Spacecraft Interferometers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenny, Sean (Technical Monitor); Wertz, Julie

2002-01-01

As technological systems grow in capability, they also grow in complexity. Due to this complexity, it is no longer possible for a designer to use engineering judgement to identify the components that have the largest impact on system life cycle metrics, such as reliability, productivity, cost, and cost effectiveness. One way of identifying these key components is to build quantitative models and analysis tools that can be used to aid the designer in making high level architecture decisions. Once these key components have been identified, two main approaches to improving a system using these components exist: add redundancy or improve the reliability of the component. In reality, the most effective approach to almost any system will be some combination of these two approaches, in varying orders of magnitude for each component. Therefore, this research tries to answer the question of how to divide funds, between adding redundancy and improving the reliability of components, to most cost effectively improve the life cycle metrics of a system. While this question is relevant to any complex system, this research focuses on one type of system in particular: Separate Spacecraft Interferometers (SSI). Quantitative models are developed to analyze the key life cycle metrics of different SSI system architectures. Next, tools are developed to compare a given set of architectures in terms of total performance, by coupling different life cycle metrics together into one performance metric. Optimization tools, such as simulated annealing and genetic algorithms, are then used to search the entire design space to find the "optimal" architecture design. Sensitivity analysis tools have been developed to determine how sensitive the results of these analyses are to uncertain user defined parameters. Finally, several possibilities for the future work that could be done in this area of research are presented.

The Use of Object-Oriented Analysis Methods in Surety Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Craft, Richard L.; Funkhouser, Donald R.; Wyss, Gregory D.

1999-05-01

Object-oriented analysis methods have been used in the computer science arena for a number of years to model the behavior of computer-based systems. This report documents how such methods can be applied to surety analysis. By embodying the causality and behavior of a system in a common object-oriented analysis model, surety analysts can make the assumptions that underlie their models explicit and thus better communicate with system designers. Furthermore, given minor extensions to traditional object-oriented analysis methods, it is possible to automatically derive a wide variety of traditional risk and reliability analysis methods from a single common object model. Automaticmore » model extraction helps ensure consistency among analyses and enables the surety analyst to examine a system from a wider variety of viewpoints in a shorter period of time. Thus it provides a deeper understanding of a system's behaviors and surety requirements. This report documents the underlying philosophy behind the common object model representation, the methods by which such common object models can be constructed, and the rules required to interrogate the common object model for derivation of traditional risk and reliability analysis models. The methodology is demonstrated in an extensive example problem.« less

Reliability analysis of a robotic system using hybridized technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Naveen; Komal; Lather, J. S.

2017-09-01

In this manuscript, the reliability of a robotic system has been analyzed using the available data (containing vagueness, uncertainty, etc). Quantification of involved uncertainties is done through data fuzzification using triangular fuzzy numbers with known spreads as suggested by system experts. With fuzzified data, if the existing fuzzy lambda-tau (FLT) technique is employed, then the computed reliability parameters have wide range of predictions. Therefore, decision-maker cannot suggest any specific and influential managerial strategy to prevent unexpected failures and consequently to improve complex system performance. To overcome this problem, the present study utilizes a hybridized technique. With this technique, fuzzy set theory is utilized to quantify uncertainties, fault tree is utilized for the system modeling, lambda-tau method is utilized to formulate mathematical expressions for failure/repair rates of the system, and genetic algorithm is utilized to solve established nonlinear programming problem. Different reliability parameters of a robotic system are computed and the results are compared with the existing technique. The components of the robotic system follow exponential distribution, i.e., constant. Sensitivity analysis is also performed and impact on system mean time between failures (MTBF) is addressed by varying other reliability parameters. Based on analysis some influential suggestions are given to improve the system performance.

Reliability analysis of the solar array based on Fault Tree Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jianing, Wu; Shaoze, Yan

2011-07-01

The solar array is an important device used in the spacecraft, which influences the quality of in-orbit operation of the spacecraft and even the launches. This paper analyzes the reliability of the mechanical system and certifies the most vital subsystem of the solar array. The fault tree analysis (FTA) model is established according to the operating process of the mechanical system based on DFH-3 satellite; the logical expression of the top event is obtained by Boolean algebra and the reliability of the solar array is calculated. The conclusion shows that the hinges are the most vital links between the solar arrays. By analyzing the structure importance(SI) of the hinge's FTA model, some fatal causes, including faults of the seal, insufficient torque of the locking spring, temperature in space, and friction force, can be identified. Damage is the initial stage of the fault, so limiting damage is significant to prevent faults. Furthermore, recommendations for improving reliability associated with damage limitation are discussed, which can be used for the redesigning of the solar array and the reliability growth planning.

A new multi-objective optimization model for preventive maintenance and replacement scheduling of multi-component systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moghaddam, Kamran S.; Usher, John S.

2011-07-01

In this article, a new multi-objective optimization model is developed to determine the optimal preventive maintenance and replacement schedules in a repairable and maintainable multi-component system. In this model, the planning horizon is divided into discrete and equally-sized periods in which three possible actions must be planned for each component, namely maintenance, replacement, or do nothing. The objective is to determine a plan of actions for each component in the system while minimizing the total cost and maximizing overall system reliability simultaneously over the planning horizon. Because of the complexity, combinatorial and highly nonlinear structure of the mathematical model, two metaheuristic solution methods, generational genetic algorithm, and a simulated annealing are applied to tackle the problem. The Pareto optimal solutions that provide good tradeoffs between the total cost and the overall reliability of the system can be obtained by the solution approach. Such a modeling approach should be useful for maintenance planners and engineers tasked with the problem of developing recommended maintenance plans for complex systems of components.

A Markov chain model for reliability growth and decay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Siegrist, K.

1982-01-01

A mathematical model is developed to describe a complex system undergoing a sequence of trials in which there is interaction between the internal states of the system and the outcomes of the trials. For example, the model might describe a system undergoing testing that is redesigned after each failure. The basic assumptions for the model are that the state of the system after a trial depends probabilistically only on the state before the trial and on the outcome of the trial and that the outcome of a trial depends probabilistically only on the state of the system before the trial. It is shown that under these basic assumptions, the successive states form a Markov chain and the successive states and outcomes jointly form a Markov chain. General results are obtained for the transition probabilities, steady-state distributions, etc. A special case studied in detail describes a system that has two possible state ('repaired' and 'unrepaired') undergoing trials that have three possible outcomes ('inherent failure', 'assignable-cause' 'failure' and 'success'). For this model, the reliability function is computed explicitly and an optimal repair policy is obtained.

Reliability Analysis for AFTI-F16 SRFCS Using ASSIST and SURE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, N. Eva

2001-01-01

This paper reports the results of a study on reliability analysis of an AFTI-16 Self-Repairing Flight Control System (SRFCS) using software tools SURE (Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator and ASSIST (Abstract Semi-Markov Specification Interface to the SURE Tool). The purpose of the study is to investigate the potential utility of the software tools in the ongoing effort of the NASA Aviation Safety Program, where the class of systems must be extended beyond the originally intended serving class of electronic digital processors. The study concludes that SURE and ASSIST are applicable to reliability, analysis of flight control systems. They are especially efficient for sensitivity analysis that quantifies the dependence of system reliability on model parameters. The study also confirms an earlier finding on the dominant role of a parameter called a failure coverage. The paper will remark on issues related to the improvement of coverage and the optimization of redundancy level.

Markov chains for testing redundant software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Allan L.; Sjogren, Jon A.

1988-01-01

A preliminary design for a validation experiment has been developed that addresses several problems unique to assuring the extremely high quality of multiple-version programs in process-control software. The procedure uses Markov chains to model the error states of the multiple version programs. The programs are observed during simulated process-control testing, and estimates are obtained for the transition probabilities between the states of the Markov chain. The experimental Markov chain model is then expanded into a reliability model that takes into account the inertia of the system being controlled. The reliability of the multiple version software is computed from this reliability model at a given confidence level using confidence intervals obtained for the transition probabilities during the experiment. An example demonstrating the method is provided.

Space Shuttle Rudder Speed Brake Actuator-A Case Study Probabilistic Fatigue Life and Reliability Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oswald, Fred B.; Savage, Michael; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2015-01-01

The U.S. Space Shuttle fleet was originally intended to have a life of 100 flights for each vehicle, lasting over a 10-year period, with minimal scheduled maintenance or inspection. The first space shuttle flight was that of the Space Shuttle Columbia (OV-102), launched April 12, 1981. The disaster that destroyed Columbia occurred on its 28th flight, February 1, 2003, nearly 22 years after its first launch. In order to minimize risk of losing another Space Shuttle, a probabilistic life and reliability analysis was conducted for the Space Shuttle rudder/speed brake actuators to determine the number of flights the actuators could sustain. A life and reliability assessment of the actuator gears was performed in two stages: a contact stress fatigue model and a gear tooth bending fatigue model. For the contact stress analysis, the Lundberg-Palmgren bearing life theory was expanded to include gear-surface pitting for the actuator as a system. The mission spectrum of the Space Shuttle rudder/speed brake actuator was combined into equivalent effective hinge moment loads including an actuator input preload for the contact stress fatigue and tooth bending fatigue models. Gear system reliabilities are reported for both models and their combination. Reliability of the actuator bearings was analyzed separately, based on data provided by the actuator manufacturer. As a result of the analysis, the reliability of one half of a single actuator was calculated to be 98.6 percent for 12 flights. Accordingly, each actuator was subsequently limited to 12 flights before removal from service in the Space Shuttle.

MEMS reliability: The challenge and the promise

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, W.M.; Tanner, D.M.; Miller, S.L.

1998-05-01

MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) that think, sense, act and communicate will open up a broad new array of cost effective solutions only if they prove to be sufficiently reliable. A valid reliability assessment of MEMS has three prerequisites: (1) statistical significance; (2) a technique for accelerating fundamental failure mechanisms, and (3) valid physical models to allow prediction of failures during actual use. These already exist for the microelectronics portion of such integrated systems. The challenge lies in the less well understood micromachine portions and its synergistic effects with microelectronics. This paper presents a methodology addressing these prerequisites and a description ofmore » the underlying physics of reliability for micromachines.« less

COSTING MODELS FOR WATER SUPPLY DISTRIBUTION: PART III- PUMPS, TANKS, AND RESERVOIRS

EPA Science Inventory

Distribution systems are generally designed to ensure hydraulic reliability. Storage tanks, reservoirs and pumps are critical in maintaining this reliability. Although storage tanks, reservoirs and pumps are necessary for maintaining adequate pressure, they may also have a negati...

A stochastic hybrid systems based framework for modeling dependent failure processes

PubMed Central

Fan, Mengfei; Zeng, Zhiguo; Zio, Enrico; Kang, Rui; Chen, Ying

2017-01-01

In this paper, we develop a framework to model and analyze systems that are subject to dependent, competing degradation processes and random shocks. The degradation processes are described by stochastic differential equations, whereas transitions between the system discrete states are triggered by random shocks. The modeling is, then, based on Stochastic Hybrid Systems (SHS), whose state space is comprised of a continuous state determined by stochastic differential equations and a discrete state driven by stochastic transitions and reset maps. A set of differential equations are derived to characterize the conditional moments of the state variables. System reliability and its lower bounds are estimated from these conditional moments, using the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method and Markov inequality, respectively. The developed framework is applied to model three dependent failure processes from literature and a comparison is made to Monte Carlo simulations. The results demonstrate that the developed framework is able to yield an accurate estimation of reliability with less computational costs compared to traditional Monte Carlo-based methods. PMID:28231313

A stochastic hybrid systems based framework for modeling dependent failure processes.

PubMed

Fan, Mengfei; Zeng, Zhiguo; Zio, Enrico; Kang, Rui; Chen, Ying

2017-01-01

In this paper, we develop a framework to model and analyze systems that are subject to dependent, competing degradation processes and random shocks. The degradation processes are described by stochastic differential equations, whereas transitions between the system discrete states are triggered by random shocks. The modeling is, then, based on Stochastic Hybrid Systems (SHS), whose state space is comprised of a continuous state determined by stochastic differential equations and a discrete state driven by stochastic transitions and reset maps. A set of differential equations are derived to characterize the conditional moments of the state variables. System reliability and its lower bounds are estimated from these conditional moments, using the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method and Markov inequality, respectively. The developed framework is applied to model three dependent failure processes from literature and a comparison is made to Monte Carlo simulations. The results demonstrate that the developed framework is able to yield an accurate estimation of reliability with less computational costs compared to traditional Monte Carlo-based methods.

Three real-time architectures - A study using reward models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sjogren, J. A.; Smith, R. M.

1990-01-01

Numerous applications in the area of computer system analysis can be effectively studied with Markov reward models. These models describe the evolutionary behavior of the computer system by a continuous-time Markov chain, and a reward rate is associated with each state. In reliability/availability models, upstates have reward rate 1, and down states have reward rate zero associated with them. In a combined model of performance and reliability, the reward rate of a state may be the computational capacity, or a related performance measure. Steady-state expected reward rate and expected instantaneous reward rate are clearly useful measures which can be extracted from the Markov reward model. The diversity of areas where Markov reward models may be used is illustrated with a comparative study of three examples of interest to the fault tolerant computing community.

Competing risk models in reliability systems, an exponential distribution model with Bayesian analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iskandar, I.

2018-03-01

The exponential distribution is the most widely used reliability analysis. This distribution is very suitable for representing the lengths of life of many cases and is available in a simple statistical form. The characteristic of this distribution is a constant hazard rate. The exponential distribution is the lower rank of the Weibull distributions. In this paper our effort is to introduce the basic notions that constitute an exponential competing risks model in reliability analysis using Bayesian analysis approach and presenting their analytic methods. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure. A non-informative prior distribution is used in our analysis. This model describes the likelihood function and follows with the description of the posterior function and the estimations of the point, interval, hazard function, and reliability. The net probability of failure if only one specific risk is present, crude probability of failure due to a specific risk in the presence of other causes, and partial crude probabilities are also included.

77 FR 21670 - Acibenzolar-S-

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-11

.../Exposure Analysis Modeling System and Screening Concentration in Ground Water (SCI-GROW) models, the... Classification System (NAICS) codes have been provided to assist you and others in determining whether this... reliable information.'' This includes exposure through drinking water and in residential settings, but does...

Reliability and Maintainability Analysis: A Conceptual Design Model

DTIC Science & Technology

1972-03-01

Elements For a System I. Research ane Development A. Preliminary design and engineering B. Fabrication of test equipment C. Test operations D...reliability racquiro:wents, little, if any, modu larzation and auto- matic test features would be incorporated in the subsystem design, limited reliability...niaintaina~ility testing and monitoring would be conducted turing dev!qopmcnt, and little Quality Control effort, in the rell ability/’uaintainalility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grabaskas, David; Brunett, Acacia J.; Passerini, Stefano

GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy (GEH) and Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) participated in a two year collaboration to modernize and update the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for the PRISM sodium fast reactor. At a high level, the primary outcome of the project was the development of a next-generation PRA that is intended to enable risk-informed prioritization of safety- and reliability-focused research and development. A central Argonne task during this project was a reliability assessment of passive safety systems, which included the Reactor Vessel Auxiliary Cooling System (RVACS) and the inherent reactivity feedbacks of the metal fuel core. Both systems were examinedmore » utilizing a methodology derived from the Reliability Method for Passive Safety Functions (RMPS), with an emphasis on developing success criteria based on mechanistic system modeling while also maintaining consistency with the Fuel Damage Categories (FDCs) of the mechanistic source term assessment. This paper provides an overview of the reliability analyses of both systems, including highlights of the FMEAs, the construction of best-estimate models, uncertain parameter screening and propagation, and the quantification of system failure probability. In particular, special focus is given to the methodologies to perform the analysis of uncertainty propagation and the determination of the likelihood of violating FDC limits. Additionally, important lessons learned are also reviewed, such as optimal sampling methodologies for the discovery of low likelihood failure events and strategies for the combined treatment of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties.« less

The Role of Demand Response in Reducing Water-Related Power Plant Vulnerabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macknick, J.; Brinkman, G.; Zhou, E.; O'Connell, M.; Newmark, R. L.; Miara, A.; Cohen, S. M.

2015-12-01

The electric sector depends on readily available water supplies for reliable and efficient operation. Elevated water temperatures or low water levels can trigger regulatory or plant-level decisions to curtail power generation, which can affect system cost and reliability. In the past decade, dozens of power plants in the U.S. have curtailed generation due to water temperatures and water shortages. Curtailments occur during the summer, when temperatures are highest and there is greatest demand for electricity. Climate change could alter the availability and temperature of water resources, exacerbating these issues. Constructing alternative cooling systems to address vulnerabilities can be capital intensive and can also affect power plant efficiencies. Demand response programs are being implemented by electric system planners and operators to reduce and shift electricity demands from peak usage periods to other times of the day. Demand response programs can also play a role in reducing water-related power sector vulnerabilities during summer months. Traditionally, production cost modeling and demand response analyses do not include water resources. In this effort, we integrate an electricity production cost modeling framework with water-related impacts on power plants in a test system to evaluate the impacts of demand response measures on power system costs and reliability. Specifically, we i) quantify the cost and reliability implications of incorporating water resources into production cost modeling, ii) evaluate the impacts of demand response measures on reducing system costs and vulnerabilities, and iii) consider sensitivity analyses with cooling systems to highlight a range of potential benefits of demand response measures. Impacts from climate change on power plant performance and water resources are discussed. Results provide key insights to policymakers and practitioners for reducing water-related power plant vulnerabilities via lower cost methods.

Formal design and verification of a reliable computing platform for real-time control (phase 3 results)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Ricky W.; Divito, Ben L.; Holloway, C. Michael

1994-01-01

In this paper the design and formal verification of the lower levels of the Reliable Computing Platform (RCP), a fault-tolerant computing system for digital flight control applications, are presented. The RCP uses NMR-style redundancy to mask faults and internal majority voting to flush the effects of transient faults. Two new layers of the RCP hierarchy are introduced: the Minimal Voting refinement (DA_minv) of the Distributed Asynchronous (DA) model and the Local Executive (LE) Model. Both the DA_minv model and the LE model are specified formally and have been verified using the Ehdm verification system. All specifications and proofs are available electronically via the Internet using anonymous FTP or World Wide Web (WWW) access.

PSHFT - COMPUTERIZED LIFE AND RELIABILITY MODELLING FOR TURBOPROP TRANSMISSIONS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.

1994-01-01

The computer program PSHFT calculates the life of a variety of aircraft transmissions. A generalized life and reliability model is presented for turboprop and parallel shaft geared prop-fan aircraft transmissions. The transmission life and reliability model is a combination of the individual reliability models for all the bearings and gears in the main load paths. The bearing and gear reliability models are based on the statistical two parameter Weibull failure distribution method and classical fatigue theories. The computer program developed to calculate the transmission model is modular. In its present form, the program can analyze five different transmissions arrangements. Moreover, the program can be easily modified to include additional transmission arrangements. PSHFT uses the properties of a common block two-dimensional array to separate the component and transmission property values from the analysis subroutines. The rows correspond to specific components with the first row containing the values for the entire transmission. Columns contain the values for specific properties. Since the subroutines (which determine the transmission life and dynamic capacity) interface solely with this property array, they are separated from any specific transmission configuration. The system analysis subroutines work in an identical manner for all transmission configurations considered. Thus, other configurations can be added to the program by simply adding component property determination subroutines. PSHFT consists of a main program, a series of configuration specific subroutines, generic component property analysis subroutines, systems analysis subroutines, and a common block. The main program selects the routines to be used in the analysis and sequences their operation. The series of configuration specific subroutines input the configuration data, perform the component force and life analyses (with the help of the generic component property analysis subroutines), fill the property array, call up the system analysis routines, and finally print out the analysis results for the system and components. PSHFT is written in FORTRAN 77 and compiled on a MicroSoft FORTRAN compiler. The program will run on an IBM PC AT compatible with at least 104k bytes of memory. The program was developed in 1988.

Benchmark analysis of forecasted seasonal temperature over different climatic areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giunta, G.; Salerno, R.; Ceppi, A.; Ercolani, G.; Mancini, M.

2015-12-01

From a long-term perspective, an improvement of seasonal forecasting, which is often exclusively based on climatology, could provide a new capability for the management of energy resources in a time scale of just a few months. This paper regards a benchmark analysis in relation to long-term temperature forecasts over Italy in the year 2010, comparing the eni-kassandra meteo forecast (e-kmf®) model, the Climate Forecast System-National Centers for Environmental Prediction (CFS-NCEP) model, and the climatological reference (based on 25-year data) with observations. Statistical indexes are used to understand the reliability of the prediction of 2-m monthly air temperatures with a perspective of 12 weeks ahead. The results show how the best performance is achieved by the e-kmf® system which improves the reliability for long-term forecasts compared to climatology and the CFS-NCEP model. By using the reliable high-performance forecast system, it is possible to optimize the natural gas portfolio and management operations, thereby obtaining a competitive advantage in the European energy market.

Real-time PCR machine system modeling and a systematic approach for the robust design of a real-time PCR-on-a-chip system.

PubMed

Lee, Da-Sheng

2010-01-01

Chip-based DNA quantification systems are widespread, and used in many point-of-care applications. However, instruments for such applications may not be maintained or calibrated regularly. Since machine reliability is a key issue for normal operation, this study presents a system model of the real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) machine to analyze the instrument design through numerical experiments. Based on model analysis, a systematic approach was developed to lower the variation of DNA quantification and achieve a robust design for a real-time PCR-on-a-chip system. Accelerated lift testing was adopted to evaluate the reliability of the chip prototype. According to the life test plan, this proposed real-time PCR-on-a-chip system was simulated to work continuously for over three years with similar reproducibility in DNA quantification. This not only shows the robustness of the lab-on-a-chip system, but also verifies the effectiveness of our systematic method for achieving a robust design.

PAWS/STEM - PADE APPROXIMATION WITH SCALING AND SCALED TAYLOR EXPONENTIAL MATRIX (VAX VMS VERSION)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, R. W.

1994-01-01

Traditional fault-tree techniques for analyzing the reliability of large, complex systems fail to model the dynamic reconfiguration capabilities of modern computer systems. Markov models, on the other hand, can describe fault-recovery (via system reconfiguration) as well as fault-occurrence. The Pade Approximation with Scaling (PAWS) and Scaled Taylor Exponential Matrix (STEM) programs provide a flexible, user-friendly, language-based interface for the creation and evaluation of Markov models describing the behavior of fault-tolerant reconfigurable computer systems. PAWS and STEM produce exact solutions for the probability of system failure and provide a conservative estimate of the number of significant digits in the solution. The calculation of the probability of entering a death state of a Markov model (representing system failure) requires the solution of a set of coupled differential equations. Because of the large disparity between the rates of fault arrivals and system recoveries, Markov models of fault-tolerant architectures inevitably lead to numerically stiff differential equations. Both PAWS and STEM have the capability to solve numerically stiff models. These complementary programs use separate methods to determine the matrix exponential in the solution of the model's system of differential equations. In general, PAWS is better suited to evaluate small and dense models. STEM operates at lower precision, but works faster than PAWS for larger models. The mathematical approach chosen to solve a reliability problem may vary with the size and nature of the problem. Although different solution techniques are utilized on different programs, it is possible to have a common input language. The Systems Validation Methods group at NASA Langley Research Center has created a set of programs that form the basis for a reliability analysis workstation. The set of programs are: SURE reliability analysis program (COSMIC program LAR-13789, LAR-14921); the ASSIST specification interface program (LAR-14193, LAR-14923), PAWS/STEM reliability analysis programs (LAR-14165, LAR-14920); and the FTC fault tree tool (LAR-14586, LAR-14922). FTC is used to calculate the top-event probability for a fault tree. PAWS/STEM and SURE are programs which interpret the same SURE language, but utilize different solution methods. ASSIST is a preprocessor that generates SURE language from a more abstract definition. SURE, ASSIST, and PAWS/STEM are also offered as a bundle. Please see the abstract for COS-10039/COS-10041, SARA - SURE/ASSIST Reliability Analysis Workstation, for pricing details. PAWS/STEM was originally developed for DEC VAX series computers running VMS and was later ported for use on Sun computers running SunOS. The package is written in PASCAL, ANSI compliant C-language, and FORTRAN 77. The standard distribution medium for the VMS version of PAWS/STEM (LAR-14165) is a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in VMSINSTAL format. It is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in VMSINSTAL format. Executables are included. The standard distribution medium for the Sun version of PAWS/STEM (LAR-14920) is a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. Both Sun3 and Sun4 executables are included. PAWS/STEM was developed in 1989 and last updated in 1991. DEC, VAX, VMS, and TK50 are trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. SunOS, Sun3, and Sun4 are trademarks of Sun Microsystems, Inc. UNIX is a registered trademark of AT&T Bell Laboratories.

PAWS/STEM - PADE APPROXIMATION WITH SCALING AND SCALED TAYLOR EXPONENTIAL MATRIX (SUN VERSION)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, R. W.

1994-01-01

Traditional fault-tree techniques for analyzing the reliability of large, complex systems fail to model the dynamic reconfiguration capabilities of modern computer systems. Markov models, on the other hand, can describe fault-recovery (via system reconfiguration) as well as fault-occurrence. The Pade Approximation with Scaling (PAWS) and Scaled Taylor Exponential Matrix (STEM) programs provide a flexible, user-friendly, language-based interface for the creation and evaluation of Markov models describing the behavior of fault-tolerant reconfigurable computer systems. PAWS and STEM produce exact solutions for the probability of system failure and provide a conservative estimate of the number of significant digits in the solution. The calculation of the probability of entering a death state of a Markov model (representing system failure) requires the solution of a set of coupled differential equations. Because of the large disparity between the rates of fault arrivals and system recoveries, Markov models of fault-tolerant architectures inevitably lead to numerically stiff differential equations. Both PAWS and STEM have the capability to solve numerically stiff models. These complementary programs use separate methods to determine the matrix exponential in the solution of the model's system of differential equations. In general, PAWS is better suited to evaluate small and dense models. STEM operates at lower precision, but works faster than PAWS for larger models. The mathematical approach chosen to solve a reliability problem may vary with the size and nature of the problem. Although different solution techniques are utilized on different programs, it is possible to have a common input language. The Systems Validation Methods group at NASA Langley Research Center has created a set of programs that form the basis for a reliability analysis workstation. The set of programs are: SURE reliability analysis program (COSMIC program LAR-13789, LAR-14921); the ASSIST specification interface program (LAR-14193, LAR-14923), PAWS/STEM reliability analysis programs (LAR-14165, LAR-14920); and the FTC fault tree tool (LAR-14586, LAR-14922). FTC is used to calculate the top-event probability for a fault tree. PAWS/STEM and SURE are programs which interpret the same SURE language, but utilize different solution methods. ASSIST is a preprocessor that generates SURE language from a more abstract definition. SURE, ASSIST, and PAWS/STEM are also offered as a bundle. Please see the abstract for COS-10039/COS-10041, SARA - SURE/ASSIST Reliability Analysis Workstation, for pricing details. PAWS/STEM was originally developed for DEC VAX series computers running VMS and was later ported for use on Sun computers running SunOS. The package is written in PASCAL, ANSI compliant C-language, and FORTRAN 77. The standard distribution medium for the VMS version of PAWS/STEM (LAR-14165) is a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in VMSINSTAL format. It is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in VMSINSTAL format. Executables are included. The standard distribution medium for the Sun version of PAWS/STEM (LAR-14920) is a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. Both Sun3 and Sun4 executables are included. PAWS/STEM was developed in 1989 and last updated in 1991. DEC, VAX, VMS, and TK50 are trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. SunOS, Sun3, and Sun4 are trademarks of Sun Microsystems, Inc. UNIX is a registered trademark of AT&T Bell Laboratories.

Performance Analysis of Stirling Engine-Driven Vapor Compression Heat Pump System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kagawa, Noboru

Stirling engine-driven vapor compression systems have many unique advantages including higher thermal efficiencies, preferable exhaust gas characteristics, multi-fuel usage, and low noise and vibration which can play an important role in alleviating environmental and energy problems. This paper introduces a design method for the systems based on reliable mathematical methods for Stirling and Rankin cycles using reliable thermophysical information for refrigerants. The model deals with a combination of a kinematic Stirling engine and a scroll compressor. Some experimental coefficients are used to formulate the model. The obtained results show the performance behavior in detail. The measured performance of the actual system coincides with the calculated results. Furthermore, the calculated results clarify the performance using alternative refrigerants for R-22.

Maximally reliable Markov chains under energy constraints.

PubMed

Escola, Sean; Eisele, Michael; Miller, Kenneth; Paninski, Liam

2009-07-01

Signal-to-noise ratios in physical systems can be significantly degraded if the outputs of the systems are highly variable. Biological processes for which highly stereotyped signal generations are necessary features appear to have reduced their signal variabilities by employing multiple processing steps. To better understand why this multistep cascade structure might be desirable, we prove that the reliability of a signal generated by a multistate system with no memory (i.e., a Markov chain) is maximal if and only if the system topology is such that the process steps irreversibly through each state, with transition rates chosen such that an equal fraction of the total signal is generated in each state. Furthermore, our result indicates that by increasing the number of states, it is possible to arbitrarily increase the reliability of the system. In a physical system, however, an energy cost is associated with maintaining irreversible transitions, and this cost increases with the number of such transitions (i.e., the number of states). Thus, an infinite-length chain, which would be perfectly reliable, is infeasible. To model the effects of energy demands on the maximally reliable solution, we numerically optimize the topology under two distinct energy functions that penalize either irreversible transitions or incommunicability between states, respectively. In both cases, the solutions are essentially irreversible linear chains, but with upper bounds on the number of states set by the amount of available energy. We therefore conclude that a physical system for which signal reliability is important should employ a linear architecture, with the number of states (and thus the reliability) determined by the intrinsic energy constraints of the system.

The Reliability Estimation for the Open Function of Cabin Door Affected by the Imprecise Judgment Corresponding to Distribution Hypothesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Z. P.; Yue, Z. F.; Liu, W.

2018-05-01

With the development of artificial intelligence, more and more reliability experts have noticed the roles of subjective information in the reliability design of complex system. Therefore, based on the certain numbers of experiment data and expert judgments, we have divided the reliability estimation based on distribution hypothesis into cognition process and reliability calculation. Consequently, for an illustration of this modification, we have taken the information fusion based on intuitional fuzzy belief functions as the diagnosis model of cognition process, and finished the reliability estimation for the open function of cabin door affected by the imprecise judgment corresponding to distribution hypothesis.

CMS-Wave

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-27

a phase-averaged spectral wind-wave generation and transformation model and its interface in the Surface-water Modeling System (SMS). Ambrose...applications of the Boussinesq (BOUSS-2D) wave model that provides more rigorous calculations for design and performance optimization of integrated...navigation systems . Together these wave models provide reliable predictions on regional and local spatial domains and cost-effective engineering solutions

Creating High Reliability in Health Care Organizations

PubMed Central

Pronovost, Peter J; Berenholtz, Sean M; Goeschel, Christine A; Needham, Dale M; Sexton, J Bryan; Thompson, David A; Lubomski, Lisa H; Marsteller, Jill A; Makary, Martin A; Hunt, Elizabeth

2006-01-01

Objective The objective of this paper was to present a comprehensive approach to help health care organizations reliably deliver effective interventions. Context Reliability in healthcare translates into using valid rate-based measures. Yet high reliability organizations have proven that the context in which care is delivered, called organizational culture, also has important influences on patient safety. Model for Improvement Our model to improve reliability, which also includes interventions to improve culture, focuses on valid rate-based measures. This model includes (1) identifying evidence-based interventions that improve the outcome, (2) selecting interventions with the most impact on outcomes and converting to behaviors, (3) developing measures to evaluate reliability, (4) measuring baseline performance, and (5) ensuring patients receive the evidence-based interventions. The comprehensive unit-based safety program (CUSP) is used to improve culture and guide organizations in learning from mistakes that are important, but cannot be measured as rates. Conclusions We present how this model was used in over 100 intensive care units in Michigan to improve culture and eliminate catheter-related blood stream infections—both were accomplished. Our model differs from existing models in that it incorporates efforts to improve a vital component for system redesign—culture, it targets 3 important groups—senior leaders, team leaders, and front line staff, and facilitates change management—engage, educate, execute, and evaluate for planned interventions. PMID:16898981

Effect of Entropy Generation on Wear Mechanics and System Reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gidwani, Akshay; James, Siddanth; Jagtap, Sagar; Karthikeyan, Ram; Vincent, S.

2018-04-01

Wear is an irreversible phenomenon. Processes such as mutual sliding and rolling between materials involve entropy generation. These processes are monotonic with respect to time. The concept of entropy generation is further quantified using Degradation Entropy Generation theorem formulated by Michael D. Bryant. The sliding-wear model can be extrapolated to different instances in order to further provide a potential analysis of machine prognostics as well as system and process reliability for various processes besides even mere mechanical processes. In other words, using the concept of ‘entropy generation’ and wear, one can quantify the reliability of a system with respect to time using a thermodynamic variable, which is the basis of this paper. Thus in the present investigation, a unique attempt has been made to establish correlation between entropy-wear-reliability which can be useful technique in preventive maintenance.

Models and techniques for evaluating the effectiveness of aircraft computing systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyer, J. F.

1977-01-01

Models, measures and techniques were developed for evaluating the effectiveness of aircraft computing systems. The concept of effectiveness involves aspects of system performance, reliability and worth. Specifically done was a detailed development of model hierarchy at mission, functional task, and computational task levels. An appropriate class of stochastic models was investigated which served as bottom level models in the hierarchial scheme. A unified measure of effectiveness called 'performability' was defined and formulated.

Work-in-Progress Presented at the Army Symposium on Solid Mechanics, 1980 - Designing for Extremes: Environment, Loading, and Structural Behavior Held at Cape Cod, Massachusetts, 29 September-2 October 1980

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-09-01

relating x’and y’ Figure 2: Basic Laboratory Simulation Model 73 COMPARISON OF COMPUTED AND MEASURED ACCELERATIONS IN A DYNAMICALLY LOADED TACTICAL...Survival (General) Displacements Mines (Ordnance) Telemeter Systems Dynamic Response Models Temperatures Dynamics Moisture Thermal Stresses Energy...probabilistic reliability model for the XM 753 projectile rocket motor to bulkhead joint under extreme loading conditions is constructed. The reliability

Coupling long and short term decisions in the design of urban water supply infrastructure for added reliability and flexibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marques, G.; Fraga, C. C. S.; Medellin-Azuara, J.

2016-12-01

The expansion and operation of urban water supply systems under growing demands, hydrologic uncertainty and water scarcity requires a strategic combination of supply sources for reliability, reduced costs and improved operational flexibility. The design and operation of such portfolio of water supply sources involves integration of long and short term planning to determine what and when to expand, and how much to use of each supply source accounting for interest rates, economies of scale and hydrologic variability. This research presents an integrated methodology coupling dynamic programming optimization with quadratic programming to optimize the expansion (long term) and operations (short term) of multiple water supply alternatives. Lagrange Multipliers produced by the short-term model provide a signal about the marginal opportunity cost of expansion to the long-term model, in an iterative procedure. A simulation model hosts the water supply infrastructure and hydrologic conditions. Results allow (a) identification of trade offs between cost and reliability of different expansion paths and water use decisions; (b) evaluation of water transfers between urban supply systems; and (c) evaluation of potential gains by reducing water system losses as a portfolio component. The latter is critical in several developing countries where water supply system losses are high and often neglected in favor of more system expansion.

SURE reliability analysis: Program and mathematics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Ricky W.; White, Allan L.

1988-01-01

The SURE program is a new reliability analysis tool for ultrareliable computer system architectures. The computational methods on which the program is based provide an efficient means for computing accurate upper and lower bounds for the death state probabilities of a large class of semi-Markov models. Once a semi-Markov model is described using a simple input language, the SURE program automatically computes the upper and lower bounds on the probability of system failure. A parameter of the model can be specified as a variable over a range of values directing the SURE program to perform a sensitivity analysis automatically. This feature, along with the speed of the program, makes it especially useful as a design tool.

A Resource Service Model in the Industrial IoT System Based on Transparent Computing.

PubMed

Li, Weimin; Wang, Bin; Sheng, Jinfang; Dong, Ke; Li, Zitong; Hu, Yixiang

2018-03-26

The Internet of Things (IoT) has received a lot of attention, especially in industrial scenarios. One of the typical applications is the intelligent mine, which actually constructs the Six-Hedge underground systems with IoT platforms. Based on a case study of the Six Systems in the underground metal mine, this paper summarizes the main challenges of industrial IoT from the aspects of heterogeneity in devices and resources, security, reliability, deployment and maintenance costs. Then, a novel resource service model for the industrial IoT applications based on Transparent Computing (TC) is presented, which supports centralized management of all resources including operating system (OS), programs and data on the server-side for the IoT devices, thus offering an effective, reliable, secure and cross-OS IoT service and reducing the costs of IoT system deployment and maintenance. The model has five layers: sensing layer, aggregation layer, network layer, service and storage layer and interface and management layer. We also present a detailed analysis on the system architecture and key technologies of the model. Finally, the efficiency of the model is shown by an experiment prototype system.

A Resource Service Model in the Industrial IoT System Based on Transparent Computing

PubMed Central

Wang, Bin; Sheng, Jinfang; Dong, Ke; Li, Zitong; Hu, Yixiang

2018-01-01

The Internet of Things (IoT) has received a lot of attention, especially in industrial scenarios. One of the typical applications is the intelligent mine, which actually constructs the Six-Hedge underground systems with IoT platforms. Based on a case study of the Six Systems in the underground metal mine, this paper summarizes the main challenges of industrial IoT from the aspects of heterogeneity in devices and resources, security, reliability, deployment and maintenance costs. Then, a novel resource service model for the industrial IoT applications based on Transparent Computing (TC) is presented, which supports centralized management of all resources including operating system (OS), programs and data on the server-side for the IoT devices, thus offering an effective, reliable, secure and cross-OS IoT service and reducing the costs of IoT system deployment and maintenance. The model has five layers: sensing layer, aggregation layer, network layer, service and storage layer and interface and management layer. We also present a detailed analysis on the system architecture and key technologies of the model. Finally, the efficiency of the model is shown by an experiment prototype system. PMID:29587450

Use of participatory modeling workshops in a water-stressed basin of northern Mexico to assess sustainable water resources management and conduct community outreach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vivoni, E. R.; Mayer, A. S.; Halvorsen, K. E.; Robles-Morua, A.; Kossak, D.

2016-12-01

A series of iterative participatory modeling workshops were held in Sonora, México with the goal of developing water resources management strategies in a water-stressed basin subject to hydro-climatic variability and change. A model of the water resources system, consisting of watershed hydrology, water resources infrastructure, and groundwater models, was developed deliberatively in the workshops, along with scenarios of future climate and development. Participants used the final version of the water resources systems model to select from supply-side and demand-side water resources management strategies. The performance of the strategies was based on the reliability of meeting current and future demands at a daily time scale over a year's period. Pre- and post-workshop surveys were developed and administered. The survey questions focused on evaluation of participants' modeling capacity and the utility and accuracy of the models. The selected water resources strategies and the associated, expected reliability varied widely among participants. Most participants could be clustered into three groups with roughly equal numbers of participants that varied in terms of reliance on expanding infrastructure vs. demand modification; expectations of reliability; and perceptions of social, environmental, and economic impacts. The wide range of strategies chosen and associated reliabilities indicate that there is a substantial degree of uncertainty in how future water resources decisions could be made in the region. The pre- and post-survey results indicate that participants believed their modeling abilities increased and beliefs in the utility of models increased as a result of the workshops

An overview of the mathematical and statistical analysis component of RICIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hallum, Cecil R.

1987-01-01

Mathematical and statistical analysis components of RICIS (Research Institute for Computing and Information Systems) can be used in the following problem areas: (1) quantification and measurement of software reliability; (2) assessment of changes in software reliability over time (reliability growth); (3) analysis of software-failure data; and (4) decision logic for whether to continue or stop testing software. Other areas of interest to NASA/JSC where mathematical and statistical analysis can be successfully employed include: math modeling of physical systems, simulation, statistical data reduction, evaluation methods, optimization, algorithm development, and mathematical methods in signal processing.

A framework for conducting mechanistic based reliability assessments of components operating in complex systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallace, Jon Michael

2003-10-01

Reliability prediction of components operating in complex systems has historically been conducted in a statistically isolated manner. Current physics-based, i.e. mechanistic, component reliability approaches focus more on component-specific attributes and mathematical algorithms and not enough on the influence of the system. The result is that significant error can be introduced into the component reliability assessment process. The objective of this study is the development of a framework that infuses the needs and influence of the system into the process of conducting mechanistic-based component reliability assessments. The formulated framework consists of six primary steps. The first three steps, identification, decomposition, and synthesis, are primarily qualitative in nature and employ system reliability and safety engineering principles to construct an appropriate starting point for the component reliability assessment. The following two steps are the most unique. They involve a step to efficiently characterize and quantify the system-driven local parameter space and a subsequent step using this information to guide the reduction of the component parameter space. The local statistical space quantification step is accomplished using two proposed multivariate probability models: Multi-Response First Order Second Moment and Taylor-Based Inverse Transformation. Where existing joint probability models require preliminary distribution and correlation information of the responses, these models combine statistical information of the input parameters with an efficient sampling of the response analyses to produce the multi-response joint probability distribution. Parameter space reduction is accomplished using Approximate Canonical Correlation Analysis (ACCA) employed as a multi-response screening technique. The novelty of this approach is that each individual local parameter and even subsets of parameters representing entire contributing analyses can now be rank ordered with respect to their contribution to not just one response, but the entire vector of component responses simultaneously. The final step of the framework is the actual probabilistic assessment of the component. Although the same multivariate probability tools employed in the characterization step can be used for the component probability assessment, variations of this final step are given to allow for the utilization of existing probabilistic methods such as response surface Monte Carlo and Fast Probability Integration. The overall framework developed in this study is implemented to assess the finite-element based reliability prediction of a gas turbine airfoil involving several failure responses. Results of this implementation are compared to results generated using the conventional 'isolated' approach as well as a validation approach conducted through large sample Monte Carlo simulations. The framework resulted in a considerable improvement to the accuracy of the part reliability assessment and an improved understanding of the component failure behavior. Considerable statistical complexity in the form of joint non-normal behavior was found and accounted for using the framework. Future applications of the framework elements are discussed.

BDS/GPS Dual Systems Positioning Based on the Modified SR-UKF Algorithm

PubMed Central

Kong, JaeHyok; Mao, Xuchu; Li, Shaoyuan

2016-01-01

The Global Navigation Satellite System can provide all-day three-dimensional position and speed information. Currently, only using the single navigation system cannot satisfy the requirements of the system’s reliability and integrity. In order to improve the reliability and stability of the satellite navigation system, the positioning method by BDS and GPS navigation system is presented, the measurement model and the state model are described. Furthermore, the modified square-root Unscented Kalman Filter (SR-UKF) algorithm is employed in BDS and GPS conditions, and analysis of single system/multi-system positioning has been carried out, respectively. The experimental results are compared with the traditional estimation results, which show that the proposed method can perform highly-precise positioning. Especially when the number of satellites is not adequate enough, the proposed method combine BDS and GPS systems to achieve a higher positioning precision. PMID:27153068

Computational Study of a Model System of Enzyme-Mediated [4+2] Cycloaddition Reaction

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

A possible mechanistic pathway related to an enzyme-catalyzed [4+2] cycloaddition reac-tion was studied by theoretical calculations at density functional (B3LYP, O3LYP, M062X) and semiempirical levels (PM6-DH2, PM6) performed on a model system. The calculations were carried out for the key [4+2] cycloaddition step considering enzyme-catalyzed biosynthesis of Spinosyn A in a model reaction, where a reliable example of a biological Diels-Alder reaction was reported experimentally. In the present study it was demonstrated that the [4+2] cycloaddition reaction may benefit from moving along the energetically balanced reaction coordinate, which enabled the catalytic rate enhancement of the [4+2] cycloaddition pathway involving a single transition state. Modeling of such a system with coordination of three amino acids indicated a reliable decrease of activation energy by ~18.0 kcal/mol as compared to a non-catalytic transformation. PMID:25853669

Force Project Technology Presentation to the NRCC

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-02-04

Functional Bridge components Smart Odometer Adv Pretreatment Smart Bridge Multi-functional Gap Crossing Fuel Automated Tracking System Adv...comprehensive matrix of candidate composite material systems and textile reinforcement architectures via modeling/analyses and testing. Product(s...Validated Dynamic Modeling tool based on parametric study using material models to reliably predict the textile mechanics of the hose

The Evaluation Method of the Lightning Strike on Transmission Lines Aiming at Power Grid Reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Jianfeng; Wu, Jianwei; Huang, Liandong; Geng, Yinan; Yu, zhanqing

2018-01-01

Lightning protection of power system focuses on reducing the flashover rate, only distinguishing by the voltage level, without considering the functional differences between the transmission lines, and being lack of analysis the effect on the reliability of power grid. This will lead lightning protection design of general transmission lines is surplus but insufficient for key lines. In order to solve this problem, the analysis method of lightning striking on transmission lines for power grid reliability is given. Full wave process theory is used to analyze the lightning back striking; the leader propagation model is used to describe the process of shielding failure of transmission lines. The index of power grid reliability is introduced and the effect of transmission line fault on the reliability of power system is discussed in detail.

Parametric Mass Reliability Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holt, James P.

2014-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) systems are designed based upon having redundant systems with replaceable orbital replacement units (ORUs). These ORUs are designed to be swapped out fairly quickly, but some are very large, and some are made up of many components. When an ORU fails, it is replaced on orbit with a spare; the failed unit is sometimes returned to Earth to be serviced and re-launched. Such a system is not feasible for a 500+ day long-duration mission beyond low Earth orbit. The components that make up these ORUs have mixed reliabilities. Components that make up the most mass-such as computer housings, pump casings, and the silicon board of PCBs-typically are the most reliable. Meanwhile components that tend to fail the earliest-such as seals or gaskets-typically have a small mass. To better understand the problem, my project is to create a parametric model that relates both the mass of ORUs to reliability, as well as the mass of ORU subcomponents to reliability.

A GA based penalty function technique for solving constrained redundancy allocation problem of series system with interval valued reliability of components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, R. K.; Bhunia, A. K.; Roy, D.

2009-10-01

In this paper, we have considered the problem of constrained redundancy allocation of series system with interval valued reliability of components. For maximizing the overall system reliability under limited resource constraints, the problem is formulated as an unconstrained integer programming problem with interval coefficients by penalty function technique and solved by an advanced GA for integer variables with interval fitness function, tournament selection, uniform crossover, uniform mutation and elitism. As a special case, considering the lower and upper bounds of the interval valued reliabilities of the components to be the same, the corresponding problem has been solved. The model has been illustrated with some numerical examples and the results of the series redundancy allocation problem with fixed value of reliability of the components have been compared with the existing results available in the literature. Finally, sensitivity analyses have been shown graphically to study the stability of our developed GA with respect to the different GA parameters.

ETARA PC version 3.3 user's guide: Reliability, availability, maintainability simulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, David J.; Viterna, Larry A.

1991-01-01

A user's manual describing an interactive, menu-driven, personal computer based Monte Carlo reliability, availability, and maintainability simulation program called event time availability reliability (ETARA) is discussed. Given a reliability block diagram representation of a system, ETARA simulates the behavior of the system over a specified period of time using Monte Carlo methods to generate block failure and repair intervals as a function of exponential and/or Weibull distributions. Availability parameters such as equivalent availability, state availability (percentage of time as a particular output state capability), continuous state duration and number of state occurrences can be calculated. Initial spares allotment and spares replenishment on a resupply cycle can be simulated. The number of block failures are tabulated both individually and by block type, as well as total downtime, repair time, and time waiting for spares. Also, maintenance man-hours per year and system reliability, with or without repair, at or above a particular output capability can be calculated over a cumulative period of time or at specific points in time.

Diagnostic accuracy and measurement sensitivity of digital models for orthodontic purposes: A systematic review.

PubMed

Rossini, Gabriele; Parrini, Simone; Castroflorio, Tommaso; Deregibus, Andrea; Debernardi, Cesare L

2016-02-01

Our objective was to assess the accuracy, validity, and reliability of measurements obtained from virtual dental study models compared with those obtained from plaster models. PubMed, PubMed Central, National Library of Medicine Medline, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Clinical trials, Web of Knowledge, Scopus, Google Scholar, and LILACs were searched from January 2000 to November 2014. A grading system described by the Swedish Council on Technology Assessment in Health Care and the Cochrane tool for risk of bias assessment were used to rate the methodologic quality of the articles. Thirty-five relevant articles were selected. The methodologic quality was high. No significant differences were observed for most of the studies in all the measured parameters, with the exception of the American Board of Orthodontics Objective Grading System. Digital models are as reliable as traditional plaster models, with high accuracy, reliability, and reproducibility. Landmark identification, rather than the measuring device or the software, appears to be the greatest limitation. Furthermore, with their advantages in terms of cost, time, and space required, digital models could be considered the new gold standard in current practice. Copyright © 2016 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Interim reliability evaluation program, Browns Ferry fault trees

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stewart, M.E.

1981-01-01

An abbreviated fault tree method is used to evaluate and model Browns Ferry systems in the Interim Reliability Evaluation programs, simplifying the recording and displaying of events, yet maintaining the system of identifying faults. The level of investigation is not changed. The analytical thought process inherent in the conventional method is not compromised. But the abbreviated method takes less time, and the fault modes are much more visible.

Validity and Reliability of the 8-Item Work Limitations Questionnaire.

PubMed

Walker, Timothy J; Tullar, Jessica M; Diamond, Pamela M; Kohl, Harold W; Amick, Benjamin C

2017-12-01

Purpose To evaluate factorial validity, scale reliability, test-retest reliability, convergent validity, and discriminant validity of the 8-item Work Limitations Questionnaire (WLQ) among employees from a public university system. Methods A secondary analysis using de-identified data from employees who completed an annual Health Assessment between the years 2009-2015 tested research aims. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) (n = 10,165) tested the latent structure of the 8-item WLQ. Scale reliability was determined using a CFA-based approach while test-retest reliability was determined using the intraclass correlation coefficient. Convergent/discriminant validity was tested by evaluating relations between the 8-item WLQ with health/performance variables for convergent validity (health-related work performance, number of chronic conditions, and general health) and demographic variables for discriminant validity (gender and institution type). Results A 1-factor model with three correlated residuals demonstrated excellent model fit (CFI = 0.99, TLI = 0.99, RMSEA = 0.03, and SRMR = 0.01). The scale reliability was acceptable (0.69, 95% CI 0.68-0.70) and the test-retest reliability was very good (ICC = 0.78). Low-to-moderate associations were observed between the 8-item WLQ and the health/performance variables while weak associations were observed between the demographic variables. Conclusions The 8-item WLQ demonstrated sufficient reliability and validity among employees from a public university system. Results suggest the 8-item WLQ is a usable alternative for studies when the more comprehensive 25-item WLQ is not available.

Participation in Decision Making as a Property of Complex Adaptive Systems: Developing and Testing a Measure

PubMed Central

Anderson, Ruth A.; Hsieh, Pi-Ching; Su, Hui Fang; Landerman, Lawrence R.; McDaniel, Reuben R.

2013-01-01

Objectives. To (1) describe participation in decision-making as a systems-level property of complex adaptive systems and (2) present empirical evidence of reliability and validity of a corresponding measure. Method. Study 1 was a mail survey of a single respondent (administrators or directors of nursing) in each of 197 nursing homes. Study 2 was a field study using random, proportionally stratified sampling procedure that included 195 organizations with 3,968 respondents. Analysis. In Study 1, we analyzed the data to reduce the number of scale items and establish initial reliability and validity. In Study 2, we strengthened the psychometric test using a large sample. Results. Results demonstrated validity and reliability of the participation in decision-making instrument (PDMI) while measuring participation of workers in two distinct job categories (RNs and CNAs). We established reliability at the organizational level aggregated items scores. We established validity of the multidimensional properties using convergent and discriminant validity and confirmatory factor analysis. Conclusions. Participation in decision making, when modeled as a systems-level property of organization, has multiple dimensions and is more complex than is being traditionally measured. Managers can use this model to form decision teams that maximize the depth and breadth of expertise needed and to foster connection among them. PMID:24349771

Participation in decision making as a property of complex adaptive systems: developing and testing a measure.

PubMed

Anderson, Ruth A; Plowman, Donde; Corazzini, Kirsten; Hsieh, Pi-Ching; Su, Hui Fang; Landerman, Lawrence R; McDaniel, Reuben R

2013-01-01

Objectives. To (1) describe participation in decision-making as a systems-level property of complex adaptive systems and (2) present empirical evidence of reliability and validity of a corresponding measure. Method. Study 1 was a mail survey of a single respondent (administrators or directors of nursing) in each of 197 nursing homes. Study 2 was a field study using random, proportionally stratified sampling procedure that included 195 organizations with 3,968 respondents. Analysis. In Study 1, we analyzed the data to reduce the number of scale items and establish initial reliability and validity. In Study 2, we strengthened the psychometric test using a large sample. Results. Results demonstrated validity and reliability of the participation in decision-making instrument (PDMI) while measuring participation of workers in two distinct job categories (RNs and CNAs). We established reliability at the organizational level aggregated items scores. We established validity of the multidimensional properties using convergent and discriminant validity and confirmatory factor analysis. Conclusions. Participation in decision making, when modeled as a systems-level property of organization, has multiple dimensions and is more complex than is being traditionally measured. Managers can use this model to form decision teams that maximize the depth and breadth of expertise needed and to foster connection among them.

Average inactivity time model, associated orderings and reliability properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kayid, M.; Izadkhah, S.; Abouammoh, A. M.

2018-02-01

In this paper, we introduce and study a new model called 'average inactivity time model'. This new model is specifically applicable to handle the heterogeneity of the time of the failure of a system in which some inactive items exist. We provide some bounds for the mean average inactivity time of a lifespan unit. In addition, we discuss some dependence structures between the average variable and the mixing variable in the model when original random variable possesses some aging behaviors. Based on the conception of the new model, we introduce and study a new stochastic order. Finally, to illustrate the concept of the model, some interesting reliability problems are reserved.

Enterprise Systems Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-14

flows , or continuous state changes, with feedback loops and lags modeled in the flow system. Agent based simulations operate using a discrete event...DeLand, S. M., Rutherford, B . M., Diegert, K. V., & Alvin, K. F. (2002). Error and uncertainty in modeling and simulation . Reliability Engineering...intrinsic complexity of the underlying social systems fundamentally limits the ability to make

Validity and Realibility of Chemistry Systemic Multiple Choices Questions (CSMCQs)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Priyambodo, Erfan; Marfuatun

2016-01-01

Nowadays, Rasch model analysis is used widely in social research, moreover in educational research. In this research, Rasch model is used to determine the validation and the reliability of systemic multiple choices question in chemistry teaching and learning. There were 30 multiple choices question with systemic approach for high school student…

Implementation of a combined algorithm designed to increase the reliability of information systems: simulation modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popov, A.; Zolotarev, V.; Bychkov, S.

2016-11-01

This paper examines the results of experimental studies of a previously submitted combined algorithm designed to increase the reliability of information systems. The data that illustrates the organization and conduct of the studies is provided. Within the framework of a comparison of As a part of the study conducted, the comparison of the experimental data of simulation modeling and the data of the functioning of the real information system was made. The hypothesis of the homogeneity of the logical structure of the information systems was formulated, thus enabling to reconfigure the algorithm presented, - more specifically, to transform it into the model for the analysis and prediction of arbitrary information systems. The results presented can be used for further research in this direction. The data of the opportunity to predict the functioning of the information systems can be used for strategic and economic planning. The algorithm can be used as a means for providing information security.

Reliability and accuracy of Crystaleye spectrophotometric system.

PubMed

Chen, Li; Tan, Jian Guo; Zhou, Jian Feng; Yang, Xu; Du, Yang; Wang, Fang Ping

2010-01-01

to develop an in vitro shade-measuring model to evaluate the reliability and accuracy of the Crystaleye spectrophotometric system, a newly developed spectrophotometer. four shade guides, VITA Classical, VITA 3D-Master, Chromascop and Vintage Halo NCC, were measured with the Crystaleye spectrophotometer in a standardised model, ten times for 107 shade tabs. The shade-matching results and the CIE L*a*b* values of the cervical, body and incisal regions for each measurement were automatically analysed using the supporting software. Reliability and accuracy were calculated for each shade tab both in percentage and in colour difference (ΔE). Difference was analysed by one-way ANOVA in the cervical, body and incisal regions. range of reliability was 88.81% to 98.97% and 0.13 to 0.24 ΔE units, and that of accuracy was 44.05% to 91.25% and 1.03 to 1.89 ΔE units. Significant differences in reliability and accuracy were found between the body region and the cervical and incisal regions. Comparisons made among regions and shade guides revealed that evaluation in ΔE was prone to disclose the differences. measurements with the Crystaleye spectrophotometer had similar, high reliability in different shade guides and regions, indicating predictable repeated measurements. Accuracy in the body region was high and less variable compared with the cervical and incisal regions.

Reliability estimation of a N- M-cold-standby redundancy system in a multicomponent stress-strength model with generalized half-logistic distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yiming; Shi, Yimin; Bai, Xuchao; Zhan, Pei

2018-01-01

In this paper, we study the estimation for the reliability of a multicomponent system, named N- M-cold-standby redundancy system, based on progressive Type-II censoring sample. In the system, there are N subsystems consisting of M statistically independent distributed strength components, and only one of these subsystems works under the impact of stresses at a time and the others remain as standbys. Whenever the working subsystem fails, one from the standbys takes its place. The system fails when the entire subsystems fail. It is supposed that the underlying distributions of random strength and stress both belong to the generalized half-logistic distribution with different shape parameter. The reliability of the system is estimated by using both classical and Bayesian statistical inference. Uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator and maximum likelihood estimator for the reliability of the system are derived. Under squared error loss function, the exact expression of the Bayes estimator for the reliability of the system is developed by using the Gauss hypergeometric function. The asymptotic confidence interval and corresponding coverage probabilities are derived based on both the Fisher and the observed information matrices. The approximate highest probability density credible interval is constructed by using Monte Carlo method. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the performances of the proposed reliability estimators. A real data set is also analyzed for an illustration of the findings.

Reliability analysis of airship remote sensing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Jun

1998-08-01

Airship Remote Sensing System (ARSS) for obtain the dynamic or real time images in the remote sensing of the catastrophe and the environment, is a mixed complex system. Its sensor platform is a remote control airship. The achievement of a remote sensing mission depends on a series of factors. For this reason, it is very important for us to analyze reliability of ARSS. In first place, the system model was simplified form multi-stage system to two-state system on the basis of the result of the failure mode and effect analysis and the failure tree failure mode effect and criticality analysis. The failure tree was created after analyzing all factors and their interrelations. This failure tree includes four branches, e.g. engine subsystem, remote control subsystem, airship construction subsystem, flying metrology and climate subsystem. By way of failure tree analysis and basic-events classing, the weak links were discovered. The result of test running shown no difference in comparison with theory analysis. In accordance with the above conclusions, a plan of the reliability growth and reliability maintenance were posed. System's reliability are raised from 89 percent to 92 percent with the reformation of the man-machine interactive interface, the augmentation of the secondary better-groupie and the secondary remote control equipment.

Why preferring parametric forecasting to nonparametric methods?

PubMed

Jabot, Franck

2015-05-07

A recent series of papers by Charles T. Perretti and collaborators have shown that nonparametric forecasting methods can outperform parametric methods in noisy nonlinear systems. Such a situation can arise because of two main reasons: the instability of parametric inference procedures in chaotic systems which can lead to biased parameter estimates, and the discrepancy between the real system dynamics and the modeled one, a problem that Perretti and collaborators call "the true model myth". Should ecologists go on using the demanding parametric machinery when trying to forecast the dynamics of complex ecosystems? Or should they rely on the elegant nonparametric approach that appears so promising? It will be here argued that ecological forecasting based on parametric models presents two key comparative advantages over nonparametric approaches. First, the likelihood of parametric forecasting failure can be diagnosed thanks to simple Bayesian model checking procedures. Second, when parametric forecasting is diagnosed to be reliable, forecasting uncertainty can be estimated on virtual data generated with the fitted to data parametric model. In contrast, nonparametric techniques provide forecasts with unknown reliability. This argumentation is illustrated with the simple theta-logistic model that was previously used by Perretti and collaborators to make their point. It should convince ecologists to stick to standard parametric approaches, until methods have been developed to assess the reliability of nonparametric forecasting. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

iFlorida model deployment final evaluation report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

This document is the final report for the evaluation of the USDOT-sponsored Surface Transportation Security and Reliability Information System Model Deployment, or iFlorida Model Deployment. This report discusses findings in the following areas: ITS ...

iFlorida model deployment final evaluation report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

This document is the final report for the evaluation of the USDOT-sponsored Surface Transportation Security and Reliability Information System Model Deployment, or iFlorida Model Deployment. This report discusses findings in the following areas: ITS ...

Human Reliability and Ship Stability

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-07-04

models such as Miller (1957) and Broadbent (1959) is the idea of human beings as limited capacity information processors with constraints on...15 4.2.2 Outline of Some Key models ...23 TABLE 11: GENERIC ERROR MODELING SYSTEM

77 FR 10962 - Flazasulfuron; Pesticide Tolerances

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-24

.../water/index.htm . Based on the Pesticide Root Zone Model/Exposure Analysis Modeling System (PRZM/EXAMS... Classification System (NAICS) codes have been provided to assist you and others in determining whether this... reliable information.'' This includes exposure through drinking water and in residential settings, but does...

Design optimization of a fuzzy distributed generation (DG) system with multiple renewable energy sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganesan, T.; Elamvazuthi, I.; Shaari, Ku Zilati Ku; Vasant, P.

2012-09-01

The global rise in energy demands brings major obstacles to many energy organizations in providing adequate energy supply. Hence, many techniques to generate cost effective, reliable and environmentally friendly alternative energy source are being explored. One such method is the integration of photovoltaic cells, wind turbine generators and fuel-based generators, included with storage batteries. This sort of power systems are known as distributed generation (DG) power system. However, the application of DG power systems raise certain issues such as cost effectiveness, environmental impact and reliability. The modelling as well as the optimization of this DG power system was successfully performed in the previous work using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The central idea of that work was to minimize cost, minimize emissions and maximize reliability (multi-objective (MO) setting) with respect to the power balance and design requirements. In this work, we introduce a fuzzy model that takes into account the uncertain nature of certain variables in the DG system which are dependent on the weather conditions (such as; the insolation and wind speed profiles). The MO optimization in a fuzzy environment was performed by applying the Hopfield Recurrent Neural Network (HNN). Analysis on the optimized results was then carried out.

Estimating spatio-temporal dynamics of stream total phosphate concentration by soft computing techniques.

PubMed

Chang, Fi-John; Chen, Pin-An; Chang, Li-Chiu; Tsai, Yu-Hsuan

2016-08-15

This study attempts to model the spatio-temporal dynamics of total phosphate (TP) concentrations along a river for effective hydro-environmental management. We propose a systematical modeling scheme (SMS), which is an ingenious modeling process equipped with a dynamic neural network and three refined statistical methods, for reliably predicting the TP concentrations along a river simultaneously. Two different types of artificial neural network (BPNN-static neural network; NARX network-dynamic neural network) are constructed in modeling the dynamic system. The Dahan River in Taiwan is used as a study case, where ten-year seasonal water quality data collected at seven monitoring stations along the river are used for model training and validation. Results demonstrate that the NARX network can suitably capture the important dynamic features and remarkably outperforms the BPNN model, and the SMS can effectively identify key input factors, suitably overcome data scarcity, significantly increase model reliability, satisfactorily estimate site-specific TP concentration at seven monitoring stations simultaneously, and adequately reconstruct seasonal TP data into a monthly scale. The proposed SMS can reliably model the dynamic spatio-temporal water pollution variation in a river system for missing, hazardous or costly data of interest. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Waves at Navigation Structures

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-30

upgrades the Coastal Modeling System (CMS) wave models CMS-Wave, a phase- averaged spectral wave model, and BOUSS-2D, a Boussinesq type nonlinear wave...developing WaveNet and TideNet, two Web-based tool systems for wind and wave data access and processing, which provide critical data for USACE project...practical applications, resulting in optimization of navigation system to improve safety, reliability and operations with innovative infrastructures

TOTAL user manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Sally C.; Boerschlein, David P.

1994-01-01

Semi-Markov models can be used to analyze the reliability of virtually any fault-tolerant system. However, the process of delineating all of the states and transitions in the model of a complex system can be devastatingly tedious and error-prone. Even with tools such as the Abstract Semi-Markov Specification Interface to the SURE Tool (ASSIST), the user must describe a system by specifying the rules governing the behavior of the system in order to generate the model. With the Table Oriented Translator to the ASSIST Language (TOTAL), the user can specify the components of a typical system and their attributes in the form of a table. The conditions that lead to system failure are also listed in a tabular form. The user can also abstractly specify dependencies with causes and effects. The level of information required is appropriate for system designers with little or no background in the details of reliability calculations. A menu-driven interface guides the user through the system description process, and the program updates the tables as new information is entered. The TOTAL program automatically generates an ASSIST input description to match the system description.

Mathematical programming models for the economic design and assessment of wind energy conversion systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinert, K. A.

The use of linear decision rules (LDR) and chance constrained programming (CCP) to optimize the performance of wind energy conversion clusters coupled to storage systems is described. Storage is modelled by LDR and output by CCP. The linear allocation rule and linear release rule prescribe the size and optimize a storage facility with a bypass. Chance constraints are introduced to explicitly treat reliability in terms of an appropriate value from an inverse cumulative distribution function. Details of deterministic programming structure and a sample problem involving a 500 kW and a 1.5 MW WECS are provided, considering an installed cost of $1/kW. Four demand patterns and three levels of reliability are analyzed for optimizing the generator choice and the storage configuration for base load and peak operating conditions. Deficiencies in ability to predict reliability and to account for serial correlations are noted in the model, which is concluded useful for narrowing WECS design options.

Space station electrical power system availability study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turnquist, Scott R.; Twombly, Mark A.

1988-01-01

ARINC Research Corporation performed a preliminary reliability, and maintainability (RAM) anlaysis of the NASA space station Electric Power Station (EPS). The analysis was performed using the ARINC Research developed UNIRAM RAM assessment methodology and software program. The analysis was performed in two phases: EPS modeling and EPS RAM assessment. The EPS was modeled in four parts: the insolar power generation system, the eclipse power generation system, the power management and distribution system (both ring and radial power distribution control unit (PDCU) architectures), and the power distribution to the inner keel PDCUs. The EPS RAM assessment was conducted in five steps: the use of UNIRAM to perform baseline EPS model analyses and to determine the orbital replacement unit (ORU) criticalities; the determination of EPS sensitivity to on-orbit spared of ORUs and the provision of an indication of which ORUs may need to be spared on-orbit; the determination of EPS sensitivity to changes in ORU reliability; the determination of the expected annual number of ORU failures; and the integration of the power generator system model results with the distribution system model results to assess the full EPS. Conclusions were drawn and recommendations were made.

Structural Probability Concepts Adapted to Electrical Engineering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinberg, Eric P.; Chamis, Christos C.

1994-01-01

Through the use of equivalent variable analogies, the authors demonstrate how an electrical subsystem can be modeled by an equivalent structural subsystem. This allows the electrical subsystem to be probabilistically analyzed by using available structural reliability computer codes such as NESSUS. With the ability to analyze the electrical subsystem probabilistically, we can evaluate the reliability of systems that include both structural and electrical subsystems. Common examples of such systems are a structural subsystem integrated with a health-monitoring subsystem, and smart structures. Since these systems have electrical subsystems that directly affect the operation of the overall system, probabilistically analyzing them could lead to improved reliability and reduced costs. The direct effect of the electrical subsystem on the structural subsystem is of secondary order and is not considered in the scope of this work.

Monte Carlo Approach for Reliability Estimations in Generalizability Studies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dimitrov, Dimiter M.

A Monte Carlo approach is proposed, using the Statistical Analysis System (SAS) programming language, for estimating reliability coefficients in generalizability theory studies. Test scores are generated by a probabilistic model that considers the probability for a person with a given ability score to answer an item with a given difficulty…

Impact of distributed power electronics on the lifetime and reliability of PV systems: Impact of distributed power electronics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olalla, Carlos; Maksimovic, Dragan; Deline, Chris

Here, this paper quantifies the impact of distributed power electronics in photovoltaic (PV) systems in terms of end-of-life energy-capture performance and reliability. The analysis is based on simulations of PV installations over system lifetime at various degradation rates. It is shown how module-level or submodule-level power converters can mitigate variations in cell degradation over time, effectively increasing the system lifespan by 5-10 years compared with the nominal 25-year lifetime. An important aspect typically overlooked when characterizing such improvements is the reliability of distributed power electronics, as power converter failures may not only diminish energy yield improvements but also adversely affectmore » the overall system operation. Failure models are developed, and power electronics reliability is taken into account in this work, in order to provide a more comprehensive view of the opportunities and limitations offered by distributed power electronics in PV systems. Lastly, it is shown how a differential power-processing approach achieves the best mismatch mitigation performance and the least susceptibility to converter faults.« less

Impact of distributed power electronics on the lifetime and reliability of PV systems: Impact of distributed power electronics

DOE PAGES

Olalla, Carlos; Maksimovic, Dragan; Deline, Chris; ...

2017-04-26

Here, this paper quantifies the impact of distributed power electronics in photovoltaic (PV) systems in terms of end-of-life energy-capture performance and reliability. The analysis is based on simulations of PV installations over system lifetime at various degradation rates. It is shown how module-level or submodule-level power converters can mitigate variations in cell degradation over time, effectively increasing the system lifespan by 5-10 years compared with the nominal 25-year lifetime. An important aspect typically overlooked when characterizing such improvements is the reliability of distributed power electronics, as power converter failures may not only diminish energy yield improvements but also adversely affectmore » the overall system operation. Failure models are developed, and power electronics reliability is taken into account in this work, in order to provide a more comprehensive view of the opportunities and limitations offered by distributed power electronics in PV systems. Lastly, it is shown how a differential power-processing approach achieves the best mismatch mitigation performance and the least susceptibility to converter faults.« less

Confirmatory Factor Analysis of the System for Evaluation of Teaching Qualities (SETQ) in Graduate Medical Training.

PubMed

Boerebach, Benjamin C M; Lombarts, Kiki M J M H; Arah, Onyebuchi A

2016-03-01

The System for Evaluation of Teaching Qualities (SETQ) was developed as a formative system for the continuous evaluation and development of physicians' teaching performance in graduate medical training. It has been seven years since the introduction and initial exploratory psychometric analysis of the SETQ questionnaires. This study investigates the validity and reliability of the SETQ questionnaires across hospitals and medical specialties using confirmatory factor analyses (CFAs), reliability analysis, and generalizability analysis. The SETQ questionnaires were tested in a sample of 3,025 physicians and 2,848 trainees in 46 hospitals. The CFA revealed acceptable fit of the data to the previously identified five-factor model. The high internal consistency estimates suggest satisfactory reliability of the subscales. These results provide robust evidence for the validity and reliability of the SETQ questionnaires for evaluating physicians' teaching performance. © The Author(s) 2014.

RGCA: A Reliable GPU Cluster Architecture for Large-Scale Internet of Things Computing Based on Effective Performance-Energy Optimization

PubMed Central

Chen, Qingkui; Zhao, Deyu; Wang, Jingjuan

2017-01-01

This paper aims to develop a low-cost, high-performance and high-reliability computing system to process large-scale data using common data mining algorithms in the Internet of Things (IoT) computing environment. Considering the characteristics of IoT data processing, similar to mainstream high performance computing, we use a GPU (Graphics Processing Unit) cluster to achieve better IoT services. Firstly, we present an energy consumption calculation method (ECCM) based on WSNs. Then, using the CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture) Programming model, we propose a Two-level Parallel Optimization Model (TLPOM) which exploits reasonable resource planning and common compiler optimization techniques to obtain the best blocks and threads configuration considering the resource constraints of each node. The key to this part is dynamic coupling Thread-Level Parallelism (TLP) and Instruction-Level Parallelism (ILP) to improve the performance of the algorithms without additional energy consumption. Finally, combining the ECCM and the TLPOM, we use the Reliable GPU Cluster Architecture (RGCA) to obtain a high-reliability computing system considering the nodes’ diversity, algorithm characteristics, etc. The results show that the performance of the algorithms significantly increased by 34.1%, 33.96% and 24.07% for Fermi, Kepler and Maxwell on average with TLPOM and the RGCA ensures that our IoT computing system provides low-cost and high-reliability services. PMID:28777325

RGCA: A Reliable GPU Cluster Architecture for Large-Scale Internet of Things Computing Based on Effective Performance-Energy Optimization.

PubMed

Fang, Yuling; Chen, Qingkui; Xiong, Neal N; Zhao, Deyu; Wang, Jingjuan

2017-08-04

This paper aims to develop a low-cost, high-performance and high-reliability computing system to process large-scale data using common data mining algorithms in the Internet of Things (IoT) computing environment. Considering the characteristics of IoT data processing, similar to mainstream high performance computing, we use a GPU (Graphics Processing Unit) cluster to achieve better IoT services. Firstly, we present an energy consumption calculation method (ECCM) based on WSNs. Then, using the CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture) Programming model, we propose a Two-level Parallel Optimization Model (TLPOM) which exploits reasonable resource planning and common compiler optimization techniques to obtain the best blocks and threads configuration considering the resource constraints of each node. The key to this part is dynamic coupling Thread-Level Parallelism (TLP) and Instruction-Level Parallelism (ILP) to improve the performance of the algorithms without additional energy consumption. Finally, combining the ECCM and the TLPOM, we use the Reliable GPU Cluster Architecture (RGCA) to obtain a high-reliability computing system considering the nodes' diversity, algorithm characteristics, etc. The results show that the performance of the algorithms significantly increased by 34.1%, 33.96% and 24.07% for Fermi, Kepler and Maxwell on average with TLPOM and the RGCA ensures that our IoT computing system provides low-cost and high-reliability services.

Data Sufficiency Assessment and Pumping Test Design for Groundwater Prediction Using Decision Theory and Genetic Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McPhee, J.; William, Y. W.

2005-12-01

This work presents a methodology for pumping test design based on the reliability requirements of a groundwater model. Reliability requirements take into consideration the application of the model results in groundwater management, expressed in this case as a multiobjective management model. The pumping test design is formulated as a mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) problem and solved using a combination of genetic algorithm (GA) and gradient-based optimization. Bayesian decision theory provides a formal framework for assessing the influence of parameter uncertainty over the reliability of the proposed pumping test. The proposed methodology is useful for selecting a robust design that will outperform all other candidate designs under most potential 'true' states of the system

Reliability analysis in the Office of Safety, Environmental, and Mission Assurance (OSEMA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kauffmann, Paul J.

1994-12-01

The technical personnel in the SEMA office are working to provide the highest degree of value-added activities to their support of the NASA Langley Research Center mission. Management perceives that reliability analysis tools and an understanding of a comprehensive systems approach to reliability will be a foundation of this change process. Since the office is involved in a broad range of activities supporting space mission projects and operating activities (such as wind tunnels and facilities), it was not clear what reliability tools the office should be familiar with and how these tools could serve as a flexible knowledge base for organizational growth. Interviews and discussions with the office personnel (both technicians and engineers) revealed that job responsibilities ranged from incoming inspection to component or system analysis to safety and risk. It was apparent that a broad base in applied probability and reliability along with tools for practical application was required by the office. A series of ten class sessions with a duration of two hours each was organized and scheduled. Hand-out materials were developed and practical examples based on the type of work performed by the office personnel were included. Topics covered were: Reliability Systems - a broad system oriented approach to reliability; Probability Distributions - discrete and continuous distributions; Sampling and Confidence Intervals - random sampling and sampling plans; Data Analysis and Estimation - Model selection and parameter estimates; and Reliability Tools - block diagrams, fault trees, event trees, FMEA. In the future, this information will be used to review and assess existing equipment and processes from a reliability system perspective. An analysis of incoming materials sampling plans was also completed. This study looked at the issues associated with Mil Std 105 and changes for a zero defect acceptance sampling plan.

Reliability analysis in the Office of Safety, Environmental, and Mission Assurance (OSEMA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kauffmann, Paul J.

1994-01-01

The technical personnel in the SEMA office are working to provide the highest degree of value-added activities to their support of the NASA Langley Research Center mission. Management perceives that reliability analysis tools and an understanding of a comprehensive systems approach to reliability will be a foundation of this change process. Since the office is involved in a broad range of activities supporting space mission projects and operating activities (such as wind tunnels and facilities), it was not clear what reliability tools the office should be familiar with and how these tools could serve as a flexible knowledge base for organizational growth. Interviews and discussions with the office personnel (both technicians and engineers) revealed that job responsibilities ranged from incoming inspection to component or system analysis to safety and risk. It was apparent that a broad base in applied probability and reliability along with tools for practical application was required by the office. A series of ten class sessions with a duration of two hours each was organized and scheduled. Hand-out materials were developed and practical examples based on the type of work performed by the office personnel were included. Topics covered were: Reliability Systems - a broad system oriented approach to reliability; Probability Distributions - discrete and continuous distributions; Sampling and Confidence Intervals - random sampling and sampling plans; Data Analysis and Estimation - Model selection and parameter estimates; and Reliability Tools - block diagrams, fault trees, event trees, FMEA. In the future, this information will be used to review and assess existing equipment and processes from a reliability system perspective. An analysis of incoming materials sampling plans was also completed. This study looked at the issues associated with Mil Std 105 and changes for a zero defect acceptance sampling plan.

Interdependent networks: the fragility of control

PubMed Central

Morris, Richard G.; Barthelemy, Marc

2013-01-01

Recent work in the area of interdependent networks has focused on interactions between two systems of the same type. However, an important and ubiquitous class of systems are those involving monitoring and control, an example of interdependence between processes that are very different. In this Article, we introduce a framework for modelling ‘distributed supervisory control' in the guise of an electrical network supervised by a distributed system of control devices. The system is characterised by degrees of freedom salient to real-world systems— namely, the number of control devices, their inherent reliability, and the topology of the control network. Surprisingly, the behavior of the system depends crucially on the reliability of control devices. When devices are completely reliable, cascade sizes are percolation controlled; the number of devices being the relevant parameter. For unreliable devices, the topology of the control network is important and can dramatically reduce the resilience of the system. PMID:24067404

77 FR 4248 - Cyazofamid; Pesticide Tolerances for Emergency Exemptions

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-27

.../water/index.htm . Based on the Pesticide Root Zone Model/Exposure Analysis Modeling System (PRZM/EXAMS... Classification System (NAICS) codes have been provided to assist you and others in determining whether this... reliable information.'' This includes exposure through drinking water and in residential settings, but does...

Improving Water Level and Soil Moisture Over Peatlands in a Global Land Modeling System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bechtold, M.; De Lannoy, G. J. M.; Roose, D.; Reichle, R. H.; Koster, R. D.; Mahanama, S. P.

2017-01-01

New model structure for peatlands results in improved skill metrics (without any parameter calibration) Simulated surface soil moisture strongly affected by new model, but reliable soil moisture data lacking for validation.

On reliable control system designs. Ph.D. Thesis; [actuators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Birdwell, J. D.

1978-01-01

A mathematical model for use in the design of reliable multivariable control systems is discussed with special emphasis on actuator failures and necessary actuator redundancy levels. The model consists of a linear time invariant discrete time dynamical system. Configuration changes in the system dynamics are governed by a Markov chain that includes transition probabilities from one configuration state to another. The performance index is a standard quadratic cost functional, over an infinite time interval. The actual system configuration can be deduced with a one step delay. The calculation of the optimal control law requires the solution of a set of highly coupled Riccati-like matrix difference equations. Results can be used for off-line studies relating the open loop dynamics, required performance, actuator mean time to failure, and functional or identical actuator redundancy, with and without feedback gain reconfiguration strategies.

A Fuzzy Robust Optimization Model for Waste Allocation Planning Under Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Xu, Ye; Huang, Guohe; Xu, Ling

2014-01-01

Abstract In this study, a fuzzy robust optimization (FRO) model was developed for supporting municipal solid waste management under uncertainty. The Development Zone of the City of Dalian, China, was used as a study case for demonstration. Comparing with traditional fuzzy models, the FRO model made improvement by considering the minimization of the weighted summation among the expected objective values, the differences between two extreme possible objective values, and the penalty of the constraints violation as the objective function, instead of relying purely on the minimization of expected value. Such an improvement leads to enhanced system reliability and the model becomes especially useful when multiple types of uncertainties and complexities are involved in the management system. Through a case study, the applicability of the FRO model was successfully demonstrated. Solutions under three future planning scenarios were provided by the FRO model, including (1) priority on economic development, (2) priority on environmental protection, and (3) balanced consideration for both. The balanced scenario solution was recommended for decision makers, since it respected both system economy and reliability. The model proved valuable in providing a comprehensive profile about the studied system and helping decision makers gain an in-depth insight into system complexity and select cost-effective management strategies. PMID:25317037

A Fuzzy Robust Optimization Model for Waste Allocation Planning Under Uncertainty.

PubMed

Xu, Ye; Huang, Guohe; Xu, Ling

2014-10-01

In this study, a fuzzy robust optimization (FRO) model was developed for supporting municipal solid waste management under uncertainty. The Development Zone of the City of Dalian, China, was used as a study case for demonstration. Comparing with traditional fuzzy models, the FRO model made improvement by considering the minimization of the weighted summation among the expected objective values, the differences between two extreme possible objective values, and the penalty of the constraints violation as the objective function, instead of relying purely on the minimization of expected value. Such an improvement leads to enhanced system reliability and the model becomes especially useful when multiple types of uncertainties and complexities are involved in the management system. Through a case study, the applicability of the FRO model was successfully demonstrated. Solutions under three future planning scenarios were provided by the FRO model, including (1) priority on economic development, (2) priority on environmental protection, and (3) balanced consideration for both. The balanced scenario solution was recommended for decision makers, since it respected both system economy and reliability. The model proved valuable in providing a comprehensive profile about the studied system and helping decision makers gain an in-depth insight into system complexity and select cost-effective management strategies.

NDE reliability and probability of detection (POD) evolution and paradigm shift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Surendra

2014-02-01

The subject of NDE Reliability and POD has gone through multiple phases since its humble beginning in the late 1960s. This was followed by several programs including the important one nicknamed "Have Cracks - Will Travel" or in short "Have Cracks" by Lockheed Georgia Company for US Air Force during 1974-1978. This and other studies ultimately led to a series of developments in the field of reliability and POD starting from the introduction of fracture mechanics and Damaged Tolerant Design (DTD) to statistical framework by Bernes and Hovey in 1981 for POD estimation to MIL-STD HDBK 1823 (1999) and 1823A (2009). During the last decade, various groups and researchers have further studied the reliability and POD using Model Assisted POD (MAPOD), Simulation Assisted POD (SAPOD), and applying Bayesian Statistics. All and each of these developments had one objective, i.e., improving accuracy of life prediction in components that to a large extent depends on the reliability and capability of NDE methods. Therefore, it is essential to have a reliable detection and sizing of large flaws in components. Currently, POD is used for studying reliability and capability of NDE methods, though POD data offers no absolute truth regarding NDE reliability, i.e., system capability, effects of flaw morphology, and quantifying the human factors. Furthermore, reliability and POD have been reported alike in meaning but POD is not NDE reliability. POD is a subset of the reliability that consists of six phases: 1) samples selection using DOE, 2) NDE equipment setup and calibration, 3) System Measurement Evaluation (SME) including Gage Repeatability &Reproducibility (Gage R&R) and Analysis Of Variance (ANOVA), 4) NDE system capability and electronic and physical saturation, 5) acquiring and fitting data to a model, and data analysis, and 6) POD estimation. This paper provides an overview of all major POD milestones for the last several decades and discuss rationale for using Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME), MAPOD, SAPOD, and Bayesian statistics for studying controllable and non-controllable variables including human factors for estimating POD. Another objective is to list gaps between "hoped for" versus validated or fielded failed hardware.

Blockmodeling and the Estimation of Evolutionary Architectural Growth in Major Defense Acquisition Programs

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-30

Dabkowski, and Dixit (2015), we demonstrate that the DoDAF models required pre–MS A map to 14 of the 18 parameters of the Constructive Systems...engineering effort in complex systems. Saarbrücken, Germany: VDM Verlag. Valerdi, R., Dabkowski, M., & Dixit , I. (2015). Reliability improvement of...R., Dabkowski, M., & Dixit , I. (2015). Reliability Improvement of Major Defense Acquisition Program Cost Estimates – Mapping DoDAF to COSYSMO

Analyzing System on A Chip Single Event Upset Responses using Single Event Upset Data, Classical Reliability Models, and Space Environment Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berg, Melanie; LaBel, Kenneth; Campola, Michael; Xapsos, Michael

2017-01-01

We are investigating the application of classical reliability performance metrics combined with standard single event upset (SEU) analysis data. We expect to relate SEU behavior to system performance requirements. Our proposed methodology will provide better prediction of SEU responses in harsh radiation environments with confidence metrics. single event upset (SEU), single event effect (SEE), field programmable gate array devises (FPGAs)

System Architectural Considerations on Reliable Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN and C) for Constellation Program (CxP) Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dennehy, Cornelius J.

2010-01-01

This final report summarizes the results of a comparative assessment of the fault tolerance and reliability of different Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN&C) architectural approaches. This study was proactively performed by a combined Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Draper Laboratory team as a GN&C "Discipline-Advancing" activity sponsored by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC). This systematic comparative assessment of GN&C system architectural approaches was undertaken as a fundamental step towards understanding the opportunities for, and limitations of, architecting highly reliable and fault tolerant GN&C systems composed of common avionic components. The primary goal of this study was to obtain architectural 'rules of thumb' that could positively influence future designs in the direction of an optimized (i.e., most reliable and cost-efficient) GN&C system. A secondary goal was to demonstrate the application and the utility of a systematic modeling approach that maps the entire possible architecture solution space.

7 CFR 1730.61 - RUS policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

..., or reliability on the borrower's electric power system or other electric power systems interconnected to the borrower's electric power system. The Agency encourages borrowers to consider model policy... ELECTRIC SYSTEM OPERATIONS AND MAINTENANCE Interconnection of Distributed Resources § 1730.61 RUS policy...

7 CFR 1730.61 - RUS policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

..., or reliability on the borrower's electric power system or other electric power systems interconnected to the borrower's electric power system. The Agency encourages borrowers to consider model policy... ELECTRIC SYSTEM OPERATIONS AND MAINTENANCE Interconnection of Distributed Resources § 1730.61 RUS policy...

CRAX/Cassandra Reliability Analysis Software

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robinson, D.

1999-02-10

Over the past few years Sandia National Laboratories has been moving toward an increased dependence on model- or physics-based analyses as a means to assess the impact of long-term storage on the nuclear weapons stockpile. These deterministic models have also been used to evaluate replacements for aging systems, often involving commercial off-the-shelf components (COTS). In addition, the models have been used to assess the performance of replacement components manufactured via unique, small-lot production runs. In either case, the limited amount of available test data dictates that the only logical course of action to characterize the reliability of these components ismore » to specifically consider the uncertainties in material properties, operating environment etc. within the physics-based (deterministic) model. This not only provides the ability to statistically characterize the expected performance of the component or system, but also provides direction regarding the benefits of additional testing on specific components within the system. An effort was therefore initiated to evaluate the capabilities of existing probabilistic methods and, if required, to develop new analysis methods to support the inclusion of uncertainty in the classical design tools used by analysts and design engineers at Sandia. The primary result of this effort is the CMX (Cassandra Exoskeleton) reliability analysis software.« less

The SURE reliability analysis program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, R. W.

1986-01-01

The SURE program is a new reliability tool for ultrareliable computer system architectures. The program is based on computational methods recently developed for the NASA Langley Research Center. These methods provide an efficient means for computing accurate upper and lower bounds for the death state probabilities of a large class of semi-Markov models. Once a semi-Markov model is described using a simple input language, the SURE program automatically computes the upper and lower bounds on the probability of system failure. A parameter of the model can be specified as a variable over a range of values directing the SURE program to perform a sensitivity analysis automatically. This feature, along with the speed of the program, makes it especially useful as a design tool.

The SURE Reliability Analysis Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, R. W.

1986-01-01

The SURE program is a new reliability analysis tool for ultrareliable computer system architectures. The program is based on computational methods recently developed for the NASA Langley Research Center. These methods provide an efficient means for computing accurate upper and lower bounds for the death state probabilities of a large class of semi-Markov models. Once a semi-Markov model is described using a simple input language, the SURE program automatically computes the upper and lower bounds on the probability of system failure. A parameter of the model can be specified as a variable over a range of values directing the SURE program to perform a sensitivity analysis automatically. This feature, along with the speed of the program, makes it especially useful as a design tool.

The Verification-based Analysis of Reliable Multicast Protocol

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Yunqing

1996-01-01

Reliable Multicast Protocol (RMP) is a communication protocol that provides an atomic, totally ordered, reliable multicast service on top of unreliable IP Multicasting. In this paper, we develop formal models for R.W using existing automatic verification systems, and perform verification-based analysis on the formal RMP specifications. We also use the formal models of RW specifications to generate a test suite for conformance testing of the RMP implementation. Throughout the process of RMP development, we follow an iterative, interactive approach that emphasizes concurrent and parallel progress between the implementation and verification processes. Through this approach, we incorporate formal techniques into our development process, promote a common understanding for the protocol, increase the reliability of our software, and maintain high fidelity between the specifications of RMP and its implementation.

Addressing drug adherence using an operations management model.

PubMed

Nunlee, Martin; Bones, Michelle

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE To provide a model that enables health systems and pharmacy benefit managers to provide medications reliably and test for reliability and validity in the analysis of adherence to drug therapy of chronic disease. SUMMARY The quantifiable model described here can be used in conjunction with behavioral designs of drug adherence assessments. The model identifies variables that can be reproduced and expanded across the management of chronic diseases with drug therapy. By creating a reorder point system for reordering medications, the model uses a methodology commonly seen in operations research. The design includes a safety stock of medication and current supply of medication, which increases the likelihood that patients will have a continuous supply of medications, thereby positively affecting adherence by removing barriers. CONCLUSION This method identifies an adherence model that quantifies variables related to recommendations from health care providers; it can assist health care and service delivery systems in making decisions that influence adherence based on the expected order cycle days and the expected daily quantity of medication administered. This model addresses the possession of medication as a barrier to adherence.

Application of neural networks to software quality modeling of a very large telecommunications system.

PubMed

Khoshgoftaar, T M; Allen, E B; Hudepohl, J P; Aud, S J

1997-01-01

Society relies on telecommunications to such an extent that telecommunications software must have high reliability. Enhanced measurement for early risk assessment of latent defects (EMERALD) is a joint project of Nortel and Bell Canada for improving the reliability of telecommunications software products. This paper reports a case study of neural-network modeling techniques developed for the EMERALD system. The resulting neural network is currently in the prototype testing phase at Nortel. Neural-network models can be used to identify fault-prone modules for extra attention early in development, and thus reduce the risk of operational problems with those modules. We modeled a subset of modules representing over seven million lines of code from a very large telecommunications software system. The set consisted of those modules reused with changes from the previous release. The dependent variable was membership in the class of fault-prone modules. The independent variables were principal components of nine measures of software design attributes. We compared the neural-network model with a nonparametric discriminant model and found the neural-network model had better predictive accuracy.

Hydrologic Design in the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, R. M.; Farmer, W. H.; Read, L.

2014-12-01

In an era dubbed the Anthropocene, the natural world is being transformed by a myriad of human influences. As anthropogenic impacts permeate hydrologic systems, hydrologists are challenged to fully account for such changes and develop new methods of hydrologic design. Deterministic watershed models (DWM), which can account for the impacts of changes in land use, climate and infrastructure, are becoming increasing popular for the design of flood and/or drought protection measures. As with all models that are calibrated to existing datasets, DWMs are subject to model error or uncertainty. In practice, the model error component of DWM predictions is typically ignored yet DWM simulations which ignore model error produce model output which cannot reproduce the statistical properties of the observations they are intended to replicate. In the context of hydrologic design, we demonstrate how ignoring model error can lead to systematic downward bias in flood quantiles, upward bias in drought quantiles and upward bias in water supply yields. By reincorporating model error, we document how DWM models can be used to generate results that mimic actual observations and preserve their statistical behavior. In addition to use of DWM for improved predictions in a changing world, improved communication of the risk and reliability is also needed. Traditional statements of risk and reliability in hydrologic design have been characterized by return periods, but such statements often assume that the annual probability of experiencing a design event remains constant throughout the project horizon. We document the general impact of nonstationarity on the average return period and reliability in the context of hydrologic design. Our analyses reveal that return periods do not provide meaningful expressions of the likelihood of future hydrologic events. Instead, knowledge of system reliability over future planning horizons can more effectively prepare society and communicate the likelihood of future hydrologic events of interest.

Reliability and cost evaluation of small isolated power systems containing photovoltaic and wind energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karki, Rajesh

Renewable energy application in electric power systems is growing rapidly worldwide due to enhanced public concerns for adverse environmental impacts and escalation in energy costs associated with the use of conventional energy sources. Photovoltaics and wind energy sources are being increasingly recognized as cost effective generation sources. A comprehensive evaluation of reliability and cost is required to analyze the actual benefits of utilizing these energy sources. The reliability aspects of utilizing renewable energy sources have largely been ignored in the past due the relatively insignificant contribution of these sources in major power systems, and consequently due to the lack of appropriate techniques. Renewable energy sources have the potential to play a significant role in the electrical energy requirements of small isolated power systems which are primarily supplied by costly diesel fuel. A relatively high renewable energy penetration can significantly reduce the system fuel costs but can also have considerable impact on the system reliability. Small isolated systems routinely plan their generating facilities using deterministic adequacy methods that cannot incorporate the highly erratic behavior of renewable energy sources. The utilization of a single probabilistic risk index has not been generally accepted in small isolated system evaluation despite its utilization in most large power utilities. Deterministic and probabilistic techniques are combined in this thesis using a system well-being approach to provide useful adequacy indices for small isolated systems that include renewable energy. This thesis presents an evaluation model for small isolated systems containing renewable energy sources by integrating simulation models that generate appropriate atmospheric data, evaluate chronological renewable power outputs and combine total available energy and load to provide useful system indices. A software tool SIPSREL+ has been developed which generates risk, well-being and energy based indices to provide realistic cost/reliability measures of utilizing renewable energy. The concepts presented and the examples illustrated in this thesis will help system planners to decide on appropriate installation sites, the types and mix of different energy generating sources, the optimum operating policies, and the optimum generation expansion plans required to meet increasing load demands in small isolated power systems containing photovoltaic and wind energy sources.

Goal Structuring Notation in a Radiation Hardening Assurance Case for COTS-Based Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Witulski, A.; Austin, R.; Evans, J.; Mahadevan, N.; Karsai, G.; Sierawski, B.; LaBel, K.; Reed, R.

2016-01-01

The attached presentation is a summary of how mission assurance is supported by model-based representations of spacecraft systems that can define sub-system functionality and interfacing, reliability parameters, as well as detailing a new paradigm for assurance, a model-centric and not document-centric process.

Real-time PCR Machine System Modeling and a Systematic Approach for the Robust Design of a Real-time PCR-on-a-Chip System

PubMed Central

Lee, Da-Sheng

2010-01-01

Chip-based DNA quantification systems are widespread, and used in many point-of-care applications. However, instruments for such applications may not be maintained or calibrated regularly. Since machine reliability is a key issue for normal operation, this study presents a system model of the real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) machine to analyze the instrument design through numerical experiments. Based on model analysis, a systematic approach was developed to lower the variation of DNA quantification and achieve a robust design for a real-time PCR-on-a-chip system. Accelerated lift testing was adopted to evaluate the reliability of the chip prototype. According to the life test plan, this proposed real-time PCR-on-a-chip system was simulated to work continuously for over three years with similar reproducibility in DNA quantification. This not only shows the robustness of the lab-on-a-chip system, but also verifies the effectiveness of our systematic method for achieving a robust design. PMID:22315563

Methodology to improve design of accelerated life tests in civil engineering projects.

PubMed

Lin, Jing; Yuan, Yongbo; Zhou, Jilai; Gao, Jie

2014-01-01

For reliability testing an Energy Expansion Tree (EET) and a companion Energy Function Model (EFM) are proposed and described in this paper. Different from conventional approaches, the EET provides a more comprehensive and objective way to systematically identify external energy factors affecting reliability. The EFM introduces energy loss into a traditional Function Model to identify internal energy sources affecting reliability. The combination creates a sound way to enumerate the energies to which a system may be exposed during its lifetime. We input these energies into planning an accelerated life test, a Multi Environment Over Stress Test. The test objective is to discover weak links and interactions among the system and the energies to which it is exposed, and design them out. As an example, the methods are applied to the pipe in subsea pipeline. However, they can be widely used in other civil engineering industries as well. The proposed method is compared with current methods.

Fog-computing concept usage as means to enhance information and control system reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melnik, E. V.; Klimenko, A. B.; Ivanov, D. Ya

2018-05-01

This paper focuses on the reliability issue of information and control systems (ICS). The authors propose using the elements of the fog-computing concept to enhance the reliability function. The key idea of fog-computing is to shift computations to the fog-layer of the network, and thus to decrease the workload of the communication environment and data processing components. As for ICS, workload also can be distributed among sensors, actuators and network infrastructure facilities near the sources of data. The authors simulated typical workload distribution situations for the “traditional” ICS architecture and for the one with fogcomputing concept elements usage. The paper contains some models, selected simulation results and conclusion about the prospects of the fog-computing as a means to enhance ICS reliability.

Source Data Impacts on Epistemic Uncertainty for Launch Vehicle Fault Tree Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Al Hassan, Mohammad; Novack, Steven; Ring, Robert

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle systems are designed and developed using both heritage and new hardware. Design modifications to the heritage hardware to fit new functional system requirements can impact the applicability of heritage reliability data. Risk estimates for newly designed systems must be developed from generic data sources such as commercially available reliability databases using reliability prediction methodologies, such as those addressed in MIL-HDBK-217F. Failure estimates must be converted from the generic environment to the specific operating environment of the system in which it is used. In addition, some qualification of applicability for the data source to the current system should be made. Characterizing data applicability under these circumstances is crucial to developing model estimations that support confident decisions on design changes and trade studies. This paper will demonstrate a data-source applicability classification method for suggesting epistemic component uncertainty to a target vehicle based on the source and operating environment of the originating data. The source applicability is determined using heuristic guidelines while translation of operating environments is accomplished by applying statistical methods to MIL-HDK-217F tables. The paper will provide one example for assigning environmental factors uncertainty when translating between operating environments for the microelectronic part-type components. The heuristic guidelines will be followed by uncertainty-importance routines to assess the need for more applicable data to reduce model uncertainty.

A female black bear denning habitat model using a geographic information system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, J.D.; Hayes, S.G.; Pledger, J.M.

1998-01-01

We used the Mahalanobis distance statistic and a raster geographic information system (GIS) to model potential black bear (Ursus americanus) denning habitat in the Ouachita Mountains of Arkansas. The Mahalanobis distance statistic was used to represent the standard squared distance between sample variates in the GIS database (forest cover type, elevation, slope, aspect, distance to streams, distance to roads, and forest cover richness) and variates at known bear dens. Two models were developed: a generalized model for all den locations and another specific to dens in rock cavities. Differences between habitat at den sites and habitat across the study area were represented in 2 new GIS themes as Mahalanobis distance values. Cells similar to the mean vector derived from the known dens had low Mahalanobis distance values, and dissimilar cells had high values. The reliability of the predictive model was tested by overlaying den locations collected subsequent to original model development on the resultant den habitat themes. Although the generalized model demonstrated poor reliability, the model specific to rock dens had good reliability. Bears were more likely to choose rock den locations with low Mahalanobis distance values and less likely to choose those with high values. The model can be used to plan the timing and extent of management actions (e.g., road building, prescribed fire, timber harvest) most appropriate for those sites with high or low denning potential. 

Redundancy management of inertial systems.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mckern, R. A.; Musoff, H.

1973-01-01

The paper reviews developments in failure detection and isolation techniques applicable to gimballed and strapdown systems. It examines basic redundancy management goals of improved reliability, performance and logistic costs, and explores mechanizations available for both input and output data handling. The meaning of redundant system reliability in terms of available coverage, system MTBF, and mission time is presented and the practical hardware performance limitations of failure detection and isolation techniques are explored. Simulation results are presented illustrating implementation coverages attainable considering IMU performance models and mission detection threshold requirements. The implications of a complete GN&C redundancy management method on inertial techniques are also explored.

The process group approach to reliable distributed computing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Birman, Kenneth P.

1991-01-01

The difficulty of developing reliable distributed software is an impediment to applying distributed computing technology in many settings. Experience with the ISIS system suggests that a structured approach based on virtually synchronous process groups yields systems which are substantially easier to develop, fault-tolerance, and self-managing. Six years of research on ISIS are reviewed, describing the model, the types of applications to which ISIS was applied, and some of the reasoning that underlies a recent effort to redesign and reimplement ISIS as a much smaller, lightweight system.

The challenge of measuring emergency preparedness: integrating component metrics to build system-level measures for strategic national stockpile operations.

PubMed

Jackson, Brian A; Faith, Kay Sullivan

2013-02-01

Although significant progress has been made in measuring public health emergency preparedness, system-level performance measures are lacking. This report examines a potential approach to such measures for Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) operations. We adapted an engineering analytic technique used to assess the reliability of technological systems-failure mode and effects analysis-to assess preparedness. That technique, which includes systematic mapping of the response system and identification of possible breakdowns that affect performance, provides a path to use data from existing SNS assessment tools to estimate likely future performance of the system overall. Systems models of SNS operations were constructed and failure mode analyses were performed for each component. Linking data from existing assessments, including the technical assistance review and functional drills, to reliability assessment was demonstrated using publicly available information. The use of failure mode and effects estimates to assess overall response system reliability was demonstrated with a simple simulation example. Reliability analysis appears an attractive way to integrate information from the substantial investment in detailed assessments for stockpile delivery and dispensing to provide a view of likely future response performance.

Difficult Decisions Made Easier

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2006-01-01

NASA missions are extremely complex and prone to sudden, catastrophic failure if equipment falters or if an unforeseen event occurs. For these reasons, NASA trains to expect the unexpected. It tests its equipment and systems in extreme conditions, and it develops risk-analysis tests to foresee any possible problems. The Space Agency recently worked with an industry partner to develop reliability analysis software capable of modeling complex, highly dynamic systems, taking into account variations in input parameters and the evolution of the system over the course of a mission. The goal of this research was multifold. It included performance and risk analyses of complex, multiphase missions, like the insertion of the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter; reliability analyses of systems with redundant and/or repairable components; optimization analyses of system configurations with respect to cost and reliability; and sensitivity analyses to identify optimal areas for uncertainty reduction or performance enhancement.

Using software metrics and software reliability models to attain acceptable quality software for flight and ground support software for avionic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lawrence, Stella

1992-01-01

This paper is concerned with methods of measuring and developing quality software. Reliable flight and ground support software is a highly important factor in the successful operation of the space shuttle program. Reliability is probably the most important of the characteristics inherent in the concept of 'software quality'. It is the probability of failure free operation of a computer program for a specified time and environment.

Hardware and software reliability estimation using simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swern, Frederic L.

1994-01-01

The simulation technique is used to explore the validation of both hardware and software. It was concluded that simulation is a viable means for validating both hardware and software and associating a reliability number with each. This is useful in determining the overall probability of system failure of an embedded processor unit, and improving both the code and the hardware where necessary to meet reliability requirements. The methodologies were proved using some simple programs, and simple hardware models.

Reliability of Memories Protected by Multibit Error Correction Codes Against MBUs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ming, Zhu; Yi, Xiao Li; Chang, Liu; Wei, Zhang Jian

2011-02-01

As technology scales, more and more memory cells can be placed in a die. Therefore, the probability that a single event induces multiple bit upsets (MBUs) in adjacent memory cells gets greater. Generally, multibit error correction codes (MECCs) are effective approaches to mitigate MBUs in memories. In order to evaluate the robustness of protected memories, reliability models have been widely studied nowadays. Instead of irradiation experiments, the models can be used to quickly evaluate the reliability of memories in the early design. To build an accurate model, some situations should be considered. Firstly, when MBUs are presented in memories, the errors induced by several events may overlap each other, which is more frequent than single event upset (SEU) case. Furthermore, radiation experiments show that the probability of MBUs strongly depends on angles of the radiation event. However, reliability models which consider the overlap of multiple bit errors and angles of radiation event have not been proposed in the present literature. In this paper, a more accurate model of memories with MECCs is presented. Both the overlap of multiple bit errors and angles of event are considered in the model, which produces a more precise analysis in the calculation of mean time to failure (MTTF) for memory systems under MBUs. In addition, memories with scrubbing and nonscrubbing are analyzed in the proposed model. Finally, we evaluate the reliability of memories under MBUs in Matlab. The simulation results verify the validity of the proposed model.

Design of on-board Bluetooth wireless network system based on fault-tolerant technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, Zheng; Zhang, Xiangqi; Yu, Shijie; Tian, Hexiang

2007-11-01

In this paper, the Bluetooth wireless data transmission technology is applied in on-board computer system, to realize wireless data transmission between peripherals of the micro-satellite integrating electronic system, and in view of the high demand of reliability of a micro-satellite, a design of Bluetooth wireless network based on fault-tolerant technology is introduced. The reliability of two fault-tolerant systems is estimated firstly using Markov model, then the structural design of this fault-tolerant system is introduced; several protocols are established to make the system operate correctly, some related problems are listed and analyzed, with emphasis on Fault Auto-diagnosis System, Active-standby switch design and Data-Integrity process.

Reliability Analysis of Systems Subject to First-Passage Failure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lutes, Loren D.; Sarkani, Shahram

2009-01-01

An obvious goal of reliability analysis is the avoidance of system failure. However, it is generally recognized that it is often not feasible to design a practical or useful system for which failure is impossible. Thus it is necessary to use techniques that estimate the likelihood of failure based on modeling the uncertainty about such items as the demands on and capacities of various elements in the system. This usually involves the use of probability theory, and a design is considered acceptable if it has a sufficiently small probability of failure. This report contains findings of analyses of systems subject to first-passage failure.

Demonstrating the Alaska Ocean Observing System in Prince William Sound

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoch, G. Carl; McCammon, Molly

2013-07-01

The Alaska Ocean Observing System and the Oil Spill Recovery Institute developed a demonstration project over a 5 year period in Prince William Sound. The primary goal was to develop a quasi-operational system that delivers weather and ocean information in near real time to diverse user communities. This observing system now consists of atmospheric and oceanic sensors, and a new generation of computer models to numerically simulate and forecast weather, waves, and ocean circulation. A state of the art data management system provides access to these products from one internet portal at http://www.aoos.org. The project culminated in a 2009 field experiment that evaluated the observing system and performance of the model forecasts. Observations from terrestrial weather stations and weather buoys validated atmospheric circulation forecasts. Observations from wave gages on weather buoys validated forecasts of significant wave heights and periods. There was an emphasis on validation of surface currents forecasted by the ocean circulation model for oil spill response and search and rescue applications. During the 18 day field experiment a radar array mapped surface currents and drifting buoys were deployed. Hydrographic profiles at fixed stations, and by autonomous vehicles along transects, were made to acquire measurements through the water column. Terrestrial weather stations were the most reliable and least costly to operate, and in situ ocean sensors were more costly and considerably less reliable. The radar surface current mappers were the least reliable and most costly but provided the assimilation and validation data that most improved ocean circulation forecasts. We describe the setting of Prince William Sound and the various observational platforms and forecast models of the observing system, and discuss recommendations for future development.

Synthesizing cognition in neuromorphic electronic systems

PubMed Central

Neftci, Emre; Binas, Jonathan; Rutishauser, Ueli; Chicca, Elisabetta; Indiveri, Giacomo; Douglas, Rodney J.

2013-01-01

The quest to implement intelligent processing in electronic neuromorphic systems lacks methods for achieving reliable behavioral dynamics on substrates of inherently imprecise and noisy neurons. Here we report a solution to this problem that involves first mapping an unreliable hardware layer of spiking silicon neurons into an abstract computational layer composed of generic reliable subnetworks of model neurons and then composing the target behavioral dynamics as a “soft state machine” running on these reliable subnets. In the first step, the neural networks of the abstract layer are realized on the hardware substrate by mapping the neuron circuit bias voltages to the model parameters. This mapping is obtained by an automatic method in which the electronic circuit biases are calibrated against the model parameters by a series of population activity measurements. The abstract computational layer is formed by configuring neural networks as generic soft winner-take-all subnetworks that provide reliable processing by virtue of their active gain, signal restoration, and multistability. The necessary states and transitions of the desired high-level behavior are then easily embedded in the computational layer by introducing only sparse connections between some neurons of the various subnets. We demonstrate this synthesis method for a neuromorphic sensory agent that performs real-time context-dependent classification of motion patterns observed by a silicon retina. PMID:23878215

Rating the raters in a mixed model: An approach to deciphering the rater reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shang, Junfeng; Wang, Yougui

2013-05-01

Rating the raters has attracted extensive attention in recent years. Ratings are quite complex in that the subjective assessment and a number of criteria are involved in a rating system. Whenever the human judgment is a part of ratings, the inconsistency of ratings is the source of variance in scores, and it is therefore quite natural for people to verify the trustworthiness of ratings. Accordingly, estimation of the rater reliability will be of great interest and an appealing issue. To facilitate the evaluation of the rater reliability in a rating system, we propose a mixed model where the scores of the ratees offered by a rater are described with the fixed effects determined by the ability of the ratees and the random effects produced by the disagreement of the raters. In such a mixed model, for the rater random effects, we derive its posterior distribution for the prediction of random effects. To quantitatively make a decision in revealing the unreliable raters, the predictive influence function (PIF) serves as a criterion which compares the posterior distributions of random effects between the full data and rater-deleted data sets. The benchmark for this criterion is also discussed. This proposed methodology of deciphering the rater reliability is investigated in the multiple simulated and two real data sets.

Identification of the contribution of the ankle and hip joints to multi-segmental balance control

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Human stance involves multiple segments, including the legs and trunk, and requires coordinated actions of both. A novel method was developed that reliably estimates the contribution of the left and right leg (i.e., the ankle and hip joints) to the balance control of individual subjects. Methods The method was evaluated using simulations of a double-inverted pendulum model and the applicability was demonstrated with an experiment with seven healthy and one Parkinsonian participant. Model simulations indicated that two perturbations are required to reliably estimate the dynamics of a double-inverted pendulum balance control system. In the experiment, two multisine perturbation signals were applied simultaneously. The balance control system dynamic behaviour of the participants was estimated by Frequency Response Functions (FRFs), which relate ankle and hip joint angles to joint torques, using a multivariate closed-loop system identification technique. Results In the model simulations, the FRFs were reliably estimated, also in the presence of realistic levels of noise. In the experiment, the participants responded consistently to the perturbations, indicated by low noise-to-signal ratios of the ankle angle (0.24), hip angle (0.28), ankle torque (0.07), and hip torque (0.33). The developed method could detect that the Parkinson patient controlled his balance asymmetrically, that is, the right ankle and hip joints produced more corrective torque. Conclusion The method allows for a reliable estimate of the multisegmental feedback mechanism that stabilizes stance, of individual participants and of separate legs. PMID:23433148

Pairwise Maximum Entropy Models for Studying Large Biological Systems: When They Can Work and When They Can't

PubMed Central

Roudi, Yasser; Nirenberg, Sheila; Latham, Peter E.

2009-01-01

One of the most critical problems we face in the study of biological systems is building accurate statistical descriptions of them. This problem has been particularly challenging because biological systems typically contain large numbers of interacting elements, which precludes the use of standard brute force approaches. Recently, though, several groups have reported that there may be an alternate strategy. The reports show that reliable statistical models can be built without knowledge of all the interactions in a system; instead, pairwise interactions can suffice. These findings, however, are based on the analysis of small subsystems. Here, we ask whether the observations will generalize to systems of realistic size, that is, whether pairwise models will provide reliable descriptions of true biological systems. Our results show that, in most cases, they will not. The reason is that there is a crossover in the predictive power of pairwise models: If the size of the subsystem is below the crossover point, then the results have no predictive power for large systems. If the size is above the crossover point, then the results may have predictive power. This work thus provides a general framework for determining the extent to which pairwise models can be used to predict the behavior of large biological systems. Applied to neural data, the size of most systems studied so far is below the crossover point. PMID:19424487

Analysis of typical fault-tolerant architectures using HARP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, Salvatore J.; Bechta Dugan, Joanne; Trivedi, Kishor S.; Rothmann, Elizabeth M.; Smith, W. Earl

1987-01-01

Difficulties encountered in the modeling of fault-tolerant systems are discussed. The Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) approach to modeling fault-tolerant systems is described. The HARP is written in FORTRAN, consists of nearly 30,000 lines of codes and comments, and is based on behavioral decomposition. Using the behavioral decomposition, the dependability model is divided into fault-occurrence/repair and fault/error-handling models; the characteristics and combining of these two models are examined. Examples in which the HARP is applied to the modeling of some typical fault-tolerant systems, including a local-area network, two fault-tolerant computer systems, and a flight control system, are presented.

Use of Anecdotal Occurrence Data in Species Distribution Models: An Example Based on the White-Nosed Coati (Nasua narica) in the American Southwest

PubMed Central

Frey, Jennifer K.; Lewis, Jeremy C.; Guy, Rachel K.; Stuart, James N.

2013-01-01

Simple Summary We evaluated the influence of occurrence records with different reliability on predicted distribution of a unique, rare mammal in the American Southwest, the white-nosed coati (Nasua narica). We concluded that occurrence datasets that include anecdotal records can be used to infer species distributions, providing such data are used only for easily-identifiable species and based on robust modeling methods such as maximum entropy. Use of a reliability rating system is critical for using anecdotal data. Abstract Species distributions are usually inferred from occurrence records. However, these records are prone to errors in spatial precision and reliability. Although influence of spatial errors has been fairly well studied, there is little information on impacts of poor reliability. Reliability of an occurrence record can be influenced by characteristics of the species, conditions during the observation, and observer’s knowledge. Some studies have advocated use of anecdotal data, while others have advocated more stringent evidentiary standards such as only accepting records verified by physical evidence, at least for rare or elusive species. Our goal was to evaluate the influence of occurrence records with different reliability on species distribution models (SDMs) of a unique mammal, the white-nosed coati (Nasua narica) in the American Southwest. We compared SDMs developed using maximum entropy analysis of combined bioclimatic and biophysical variables and based on seven subsets of occurrence records that varied in reliability and spatial precision. We found that the predicted distribution of the coati based on datasets that included anecdotal occurrence records were similar to those based on datasets that only included physical evidence. Coati distribution in the American Southwest was predicted to occur in southwestern New Mexico and southeastern Arizona and was defined primarily by evenness of climate and Madrean woodland and chaparral land-cover types. Coati distribution patterns in this region suggest a good model for understanding the biogeographic structure of range margins. We concluded that occurrence datasets that include anecdotal records can be used to infer species distributions, providing such data are used only for easily-identifiable species and based on robust modeling methods such as maximum entropy. Use of a reliability rating system is critical for using anecdotal data. PMID:26487405

Reliability Evaluation of Computer Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-04-01

detection mechanisms. The model rrvided values for the system availa bility, mean time before failure (VITBF) , and the proportion of time that the 4 system...Stanford University Comm~iuter Science 311, (also Electrical Engineering 482), Advanced Computer Organization. Graduate course in computer architeture

Performance and Reliability Optimization for Aerospace Systems subject to Uncertainty and Degradation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, David W.; Uebelhart, Scott A.; Blaurock, Carl

2004-01-01

This report summarizes work performed by the Space Systems Laboratory (SSL) for NASA Langley Research Center in the field of performance optimization for systems subject to uncertainty. The objective of the research is to develop design methods and tools to the aerospace vehicle design process which take into account lifecycle uncertainties. It recognizes that uncertainty between the predictions of integrated models and data collected from the system in its operational environment is unavoidable. Given the presence of uncertainty, the goal of this work is to develop means of identifying critical sources of uncertainty, and to combine these with the analytical tools used with integrated modeling. In this manner, system uncertainty analysis becomes part of the design process, and can motivate redesign. The specific program objectives were: 1. To incorporate uncertainty modeling, propagation and analysis into the integrated (controls, structures, payloads, disturbances, etc.) design process to derive the error bars associated with performance predictions. 2. To apply modern optimization tools to guide in the expenditure of funds in a way that most cost-effectively improves the lifecycle productivity of the system by enhancing the subsystem reliability and redundancy. The results from the second program objective are described. This report describes the work and results for the first objective: uncertainty modeling, propagation, and synthesis with integrated modeling.

The specification-based validation of reliable multicast protocol: Problem Report. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Yunqing

1995-01-01

Reliable Multicast Protocol (RMP) is a communication protocol that provides an atomic, totally ordered, reliable multicast service on top of unreliable IP multicasting. In this report, we develop formal models for RMP using existing automated verification systems, and perform validation on the formal RMP specifications. The validation analysis help identifies some minor specification and design problems. We also use the formal models of RMP to generate a test suite for conformance testing of the implementation. Throughout the process of RMP development, we follow an iterative, interactive approach that emphasizes concurrent and parallel progress of implementation and verification processes. Through this approach, we incorporate formal techniques into our development process, promote a common understanding for the protocol, increase the reliability of our software, and maintain high fidelity between the specifications of RMP and its implementation.

Descriptive Model of Generic WAMS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hauer, John F.; DeSteese, John G.

The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Transmission Reliability Program is supporting the research, deployment, and demonstration of various wide area measurement system (WAMS) technologies to enhance the reliability of the Nation’s electrical power grid. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) was tasked by the DOE National SCADA Test Bed Program to conduct a study of WAMS security. This report represents achievement of the milestone to develop a generic WAMS model description that will provide a basis for the security analysis planned in the next phase of this study.

Thermal Protection for Mars Sample Return Earth Entry Vehicle: A Grand Challenge for Design Methodology and Reliability Verification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Venkatapathy, Ethiraj; Gage, Peter; Wright, Michael J.

2017-01-01

Mars Sample Return is our Grand Challenge for the coming decade. TPS (Thermal Protection System) nominal performance is not the key challenge. The main difficulty for designers is the need to verify unprecedented reliability for the entry system: current guidelines for prevention of backward contamination require that the probability of spores larger than 1 micron diameter escaping into the Earth environment be lower than 1 million for the entire system, and the allocation to TPS would be more stringent than that. For reference, the reliability allocation for Orion TPS is closer to 11000, and the demonstrated reliability for previous human Earth return systems was closer to 1100. Improving reliability by more than 3 orders of magnitude is a grand challenge indeed. The TPS community must embrace the possibility of new architectures that are focused on reliability above thermal performance and mass efficiency. MSR (Mars Sample Return) EEV (Earth Entry Vehicle) will be hit with MMOD (Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris) prior to reentry. A chute-less aero-shell design which allows for self-righting shape was baselined in prior MSR studies, with the assumption that a passive system will maximize EEV robustness. Hence the aero-shell along with the TPS has to take ground impact and not break apart. System verification will require testing to establish ablative performance and thermal failure but also testing of damage from MMOD, and structural performance at ground impact. Mission requirements will demand analysis, testing and verification that are focused on establishing reliability of the design. In this proposed talk, we will focus on the grand challenge of MSR EEV TPS and the need for innovative approaches to address challenges in modeling, testing, manufacturing and verification.

A Bayesian approach to reliability and confidence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnes, Ron

1989-01-01

The historical evolution of NASA's interest in quantitative measures of reliability assessment is outlined. The introduction of some quantitative methodologies into the Vehicle Reliability Branch of the Safety, Reliability and Quality Assurance (SR and QA) Division at Johnson Space Center (JSC) was noted along with the development of the Extended Orbiter Duration--Weakest Link study which will utilize quantitative tools for a Bayesian statistical analysis. Extending the earlier work of NASA sponsor, Richard Heydorn, researchers were able to produce a consistent Bayesian estimate for the reliability of a component and hence by a simple extension for a system of components in some cases where the rate of failure is not constant but varies over time. Mechanical systems in general have this property since the reliability usually decreases markedly as the parts degrade over time. While they have been able to reduce the Bayesian estimator to a simple closed form for a large class of such systems, the form for the most general case needs to be attacked by the computer. Once a table is generated for this form, researchers will have a numerical form for the general solution. With this, the corresponding probability statements about the reliability of a system can be made in the most general setting. Note that the utilization of uniform Bayesian priors represents a worst case scenario in the sense that as researchers incorporate more expert opinion into the model, they will be able to improve the strength of the probability calculations.

A pragmatic decision model for inventory management with heterogeneous suppliers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakandala, Dilupa; Lau, Henry; Zhang, Jingjing; Gunasekaran, Angappa

2018-05-01

For enterprises, it is imperative that the trade-off between the cost of inventory and risk implications is managed in the most efficient manner. To explore this, we use the common example of a wholesaler operating in an environment where suppliers demonstrate heterogeneous reliability. The wholesaler has partial orders with dual suppliers and uses lateral transshipments. While supplier reliability is a key concern in inventory management, reliable suppliers are more expensive and investment in strategic approaches that improve supplier performance carries a high cost. Here we consider the operational strategy of dual sourcing with reliable and unreliable suppliers and model the total inventory cost where the likely scenario lead-time of the unreliable suppliers extends beyond the scheduling period. We then develop a Customized Integer Programming Optimization Model to determine the optimum size of partial orders with multiple suppliers. In addition to the objective of total cost optimization, this study takes into account the volatility of the cost associated with the uncertainty of an inventory system.

Multi-state time-varying reliability evaluation of smart grid with flexible demand resources utilizing Lz transform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Heping; Jin, Wende; Ding, Yi; Song, Yonghua; Yu, Dezhao

2017-01-01

With the expanding proportion of renewable energy generation and development of smart grid technologies, flexible demand resources (FDRs) have been utilized as an approach to accommodating renewable energies. However, multiple uncertainties of FDRs may influence reliable and secure operation of smart grid. Multi-state reliability models for a single FDR and aggregating FDRs have been proposed in this paper with regard to responsive abilities for FDRs and random failures for both FDR devices and information system. The proposed reliability evaluation technique is based on Lz transform method which can formulate time-varying reliability indices. A modified IEEE-RTS has been utilized as an illustration of the proposed technique.

Two-stage stochastic unit commitment model including non-generation resources with conditional value-at-risk constraints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Yuping; Zheng, Qipeng P.; Wang, Jianhui

2014-11-01

tThis paper presents a two-stage stochastic unit commitment (UC) model, which integrates non-generation resources such as demand response (DR) and energy storage (ES) while including riskconstraints to balance between cost and system reliability due to the fluctuation of variable genera-tion such as wind and solar power. This paper uses conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) measures to modelrisks associated with the decisions in a stochastic environment. In contrast to chance-constrained modelsrequiring extra binary variables, risk constraints based on CVaR only involve linear constraints and con-tinuous variables, making it more computationally attractive. The proposed models with risk constraintsare able to avoid over-conservative solutions butmore » still ensure system reliability represented by loss ofloads. Then numerical experiments are conducted to study the effects of non-generation resources ongenerator schedules and the difference of total expected generation costs with risk consideration. Sen-sitivity analysis based on reliability parameters is also performed to test the decision preferences ofconfidence levels and load-shedding loss allowances on generation cost reduction.« less

SURE - SEMI-MARKOV UNRELIABILITY RANGE EVALUATOR (VAX VMS VERSION)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, R. W.

1994-01-01

The Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator, SURE, is an analysis tool for reconfigurable, fault-tolerant systems. Traditional reliability analyses are based on aggregates of fault-handling and fault-occurrence models. SURE provides an efficient means for calculating accurate upper and lower bounds for the death state probabilities for a large class of semi-Markov models, not just those which can be reduced to critical-pair architectures. The calculated bounds are close enough (usually within 5 percent of each other) for use in reliability studies of ultra-reliable computer systems. The SURE bounding theorems have algebraic solutions and are consequently computationally efficient even for large and complex systems. SURE can optionally regard a specified parameter as a variable over a range of values, enabling an automatic sensitivity analysis. Highly reliable systems employ redundancy and reconfiguration as methods of ensuring operation. When such systems are modeled stochastically, some state transitions are orders of magnitude faster than others; that is, fault recovery is usually faster than fault arrival. SURE takes these time differences into account. Slow transitions are described by exponential functions and fast transitions are modeled by either the White or Lee theorems based on means, variances, and percentiles. The user must assign identifiers to every state in the system and define all transitions in the semi-Markov model. SURE input statements are composed of variables and constants related by FORTRAN-like operators such as =, +, *, SIN, EXP, etc. There are a dozen major commands such as READ, READO, SAVE, SHOW, PRUNE, TRUNCate, CALCulator, and RUN. Once the state transitions have been defined, SURE calculates the upper and lower probability bounds for entering specified death states within a specified mission time. SURE output is tabular. The mathematical approach chosen to solve a reliability problem may vary with the size and nature of the problem. Although different solution techniques are utilized on different programs, it is possible to have a common input language. The Systems Validation Methods group at NASA Langley Research Center has created a set of programs that form the basis for a reliability analysis workstation. The set of programs are: SURE reliability analysis program (COSMIC program LAR-13789, LAR-14921); the ASSIST specification interface program (LAR-14193, LAR-14923), PAWS/STEM reliability analysis programs (LAR-14165, LAR-14920); and the FTC fault tree tool (LAR-14586, LAR-14922). FTC is used to calculate the top-event probability for a fault tree. PAWS/STEM and SURE are programs which interpret the same SURE language, but utilize different solution methods. ASSIST is a preprocessor that generates SURE language from a more abstract definition. SURE, ASSIST, and PAWS/STEM are also offered as a bundle. Please see the abstract for COS-10039/COS-10041, SARA - SURE/ASSIST Reliability Analysis Workstation, for pricing details. SURE was originally developed for DEC VAX series computers running VMS and was later ported for use on Sun computers running SunOS. The VMS version (LAR13789) is written in PASCAL, C-language, and FORTRAN 77. The standard distribution medium for the VMS version of SURE is a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in VMSINSTAL format. It is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in VMSINSTAL format. Executables are included. The Sun UNIX version (LAR14921) is written in ANSI C-language and PASCAL. An ANSI compliant C compiler is required in order to compile the C portion of this package. The standard distribution medium for the Sun version of SURE is a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. Both Sun3 and Sun4 executables are included. SURE was developed in 1988 and last updated in 1992. DEC, VAX, VMS, and TK50 are trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. TEMPLATE is a registered trademark of Template Graphics Software, Inc. UNIX is a registered trademark of AT&T Bell Laboratories. Sun3 and Sun4 are trademarks of Sun Microsystems, Inc.

SURE - SEMI-MARKOV UNRELIABILITY RANGE EVALUATOR (SUN VERSION)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, R. W.

1994-01-01

The Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator, SURE, is an analysis tool for reconfigurable, fault-tolerant systems. Traditional reliability analyses are based on aggregates of fault-handling and fault-occurrence models. SURE provides an efficient means for calculating accurate upper and lower bounds for the death state probabilities for a large class of semi-Markov models, not just those which can be reduced to critical-pair architectures. The calculated bounds are close enough (usually within 5 percent of each other) for use in reliability studies of ultra-reliable computer systems. The SURE bounding theorems have algebraic solutions and are consequently computationally efficient even for large and complex systems. SURE can optionally regard a specified parameter as a variable over a range of values, enabling an automatic sensitivity analysis. Highly reliable systems employ redundancy and reconfiguration as methods of ensuring operation. When such systems are modeled stochastically, some state transitions are orders of magnitude faster than others; that is, fault recovery is usually faster than fault arrival. SURE takes these time differences into account. Slow transitions are described by exponential functions and fast transitions are modeled by either the White or Lee theorems based on means, variances, and percentiles. The user must assign identifiers to every state in the system and define all transitions in the semi-Markov model. SURE input statements are composed of variables and constants related by FORTRAN-like operators such as =, +, *, SIN, EXP, etc. There are a dozen major commands such as READ, READO, SAVE, SHOW, PRUNE, TRUNCate, CALCulator, and RUN. Once the state transitions have been defined, SURE calculates the upper and lower probability bounds for entering specified death states within a specified mission time. SURE output is tabular. The mathematical approach chosen to solve a reliability problem may vary with the size and nature of the problem. Although different solution techniques are utilized on different programs, it is possible to have a common input language. The Systems Validation Methods group at NASA Langley Research Center has created a set of programs that form the basis for a reliability analysis workstation. The set of programs are: SURE reliability analysis program (COSMIC program LAR-13789, LAR-14921); the ASSIST specification interface program (LAR-14193, LAR-14923), PAWS/STEM reliability analysis programs (LAR-14165, LAR-14920); and the FTC fault tree tool (LAR-14586, LAR-14922). FTC is used to calculate the top-event probability for a fault tree. PAWS/STEM and SURE are programs which interpret the same SURE language, but utilize different solution methods. ASSIST is a preprocessor that generates SURE language from a more abstract definition. SURE, ASSIST, and PAWS/STEM are also offered as a bundle. Please see the abstract for COS-10039/COS-10041, SARA - SURE/ASSIST Reliability Analysis Workstation, for pricing details. SURE was originally developed for DEC VAX series computers running VMS and was later ported for use on Sun computers running SunOS. The VMS version (LAR13789) is written in PASCAL, C-language, and FORTRAN 77. The standard distribution medium for the VMS version of SURE is a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in VMSINSTAL format. It is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in VMSINSTAL format. Executables are included. The Sun UNIX version (LAR14921) is written in ANSI C-language and PASCAL. An ANSI compliant C compiler is required in order to compile the C portion of this package. The standard distribution medium for the Sun version of SURE is a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. Both Sun3 and Sun4 executables are included. SURE was developed in 1988 and last updated in 1992. DEC, VAX, VMS, and TK50 are trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. TEMPLATE is a registered trademark of Template Graphics Software, Inc. UNIX is a registered trademark of AT&T Bell Laboratories. Sun3 and Sun4 are trademarks of Sun Microsystems, Inc.

Using Classical Reliability Models and Single Event Upset (SEU) Data to Determine Optimum Implementation Schemes for Triple Modular Redundancy (TMR) in SRAM-Based Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) Devices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berg, M.; Kim, H.; Phan, A.; Seidleck, C.; LaBel, K.; Pellish, J.; Campola, M.

2015-01-01

Space applications are complex systems that require intricate trade analyses for optimum implementations. We focus on a subset of the trade process, using classical reliability theory and SEU data, to illustrate appropriate TMR scheme selection.

The Potential of Energy Storage Systems with Respect to Generation Adequacy and Economic Viability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradbury, Kyle Joseph

Intermittent energy resources, including wind and solar power, continue to be rapidly added to the generation fleet domestically and abroad. The variable power of these resources introduces new levels of stochasticity into electric interconnections that must be continuously balanced in order to maintain system reliability. Energy storage systems (ESSs) offer one potential option to compensate for the intermittency of renewables. ESSs for long-term storage (1-hour or greater), aside from a few pumped hydroelectric installations, are not presently in widespread use in the U.S. The deployment of ESSs would be most likely driven by either the potential for a strong internal rate of return (IRR) on investment and through significant benefits to system reliability that independent system operators (ISOs) could incentivize. To assess the potential of ESSs three objectives are addressed. (1) Evaluate the economic viability of energy storage for price arbitrage in real-time energy markets and determine system cost improvements for ESSs to become attractive investments. (2) Estimate the reliability impact of energy storage systems on the large-scale integration of intermittent generation. (3) Analyze the economic, environmental, and reliability tradeoffs associated with using energy storage in conjunction with stochastic generation. First, using real-time energy market price data from seven markets across the U.S. and the physical parameters of fourteen ESS technologies, the maximum potential IRR of each technology from price arbitrage was evaluated in each market, along with the optimal ESS system size. Additionally, the reductions in capital cost needed to achieve a 10% IRR were estimated for each ESS. The results indicate that the profit-maximizing size of an ESS is primarily determined by its technological characteristics (round-trip charge/discharge efficiency and self-discharge) and not market price volatility, which instead increases IRR. This analysis demonstrates that few ESS technologies are likely to be implemented by investors alone. Next, the effects of ESSs on system reliability are quantified. Using historic data for wind, solar, and conventional generation, a correlation-preserving, copula-transform model was implemented in conjunction with Markov chain Monte Carlo framework for estimating system reliability indices. Systems with significant wind and solar penetration (25% or greater), even with added energy storage capacity, resulted in considerable decreases in generation adequacy. Lastly, rather than analyzing the reliability and costs in isolation of one another, system reliability, cost, and emissions were analyzed in 3-space to quantify and visualize the system tradeoffs. The modeling results implied that ESSs perform similarly to natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) systems with respect to generation adequacy and system cost, with the primary difference being that the generation adequacy improvements are less for ESSs than that of NGCC systems and the increase in LCOE is greater for ESSs than NGCC systems. Although ESSs do not appear to offer greater benefits than NGCC systems for managing energy on time intervals of 1-hour or more, we conclude that future research into short-term power balancing applications of ESSs, in particular for frequency regulation, is necessary to understand the full potential of ESSs in modern electric interconnections.

A Framework for Reliability and Safety Analysis of Complex Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, John W.; Groen, Frank; Wang, Lui; Austin, Rebekah; Witulski, Art; Mahadevan, Nagabhushan; Cornford, Steven L.; Feather, Martin S.; Lindsey, Nancy

2017-01-01

Long duration and complex mission scenarios are characteristics of NASA's human exploration of Mars, and will provide unprecedented challenges. Systems reliability and safety will become increasingly demanding and management of uncertainty will be increasingly important. NASA's current pioneering strategy recognizes and relies upon assurance of crew and asset safety. In this regard, flexibility to develop and innovate in the emergence of new design environments and methodologies, encompassing modeling of complex systems, is essential to meet the challenges.

Quantifying uncertainties in streamflow predictions through signature based inference of hydrological model parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenicia, Fabrizio; Reichert, Peter; Kavetski, Dmitri; Albert, Calro

2016-04-01

The calibration of hydrological models based on signatures (e.g. Flow Duration Curves - FDCs) is often advocated as an alternative to model calibration based on the full time series of system responses (e.g. hydrographs). Signature based calibration is motivated by various arguments. From a conceptual perspective, calibration on signatures is a way to filter out errors that are difficult to represent when calibrating on the full time series. Such errors may for example occur when observed and simulated hydrographs are shifted, either on the "time" axis (i.e. left or right), or on the "streamflow" axis (i.e. above or below). These shifts may be due to errors in the precipitation input (time or amount), and if not properly accounted in the likelihood function, may cause biased parameter estimates (e.g. estimated model parameters that do not reproduce the recession characteristics of a hydrograph). From a practical perspective, signature based calibration is seen as a possible solution for making predictions in ungauged basins. Where streamflow data are not available, it may in fact be possible to reliably estimate streamflow signatures. Previous research has for example shown how FDCs can be reliably estimated at ungauged locations based on climatic and physiographic influence factors. Typically, the goal of signature based calibration is not the prediction of the signatures themselves, but the prediction of the system responses. Ideally, the prediction of system responses should be accompanied by a reliable quantification of the associated uncertainties. Previous approaches for signature based calibration, however, do not allow reliable estimates of streamflow predictive distributions. Here, we illustrate how the Bayesian approach can be employed to obtain reliable streamflow predictive distributions based on signatures. A case study is presented, where a hydrological model is calibrated on FDCs and additional signatures. We propose an approach where the likelihood function for the signatures is derived from the likelihood for streamflow (rather than using an "ad-hoc" likelihood for the signatures as done in previous approaches). This likelihood is not easily tractable analytically and we therefore cannot apply "simple" MCMC methods. This numerical problem is solved using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). Our result indicate that the proposed approach is suitable for producing reliable streamflow predictive distributions based on calibration to signature data. Moreover, our results provide indications on which signatures are more appropriate to represent the information content of the hydrograph.

Applying the High Reliability Health Care Maturity Model to Assess Hospital Performance: A VA Case Study.

PubMed

Sullivan, Jennifer L; Rivard, Peter E; Shin, Marlena H; Rosen, Amy K

2016-09-01

The lack of a tool for categorizing and differentiating hospitals according to their high reliability organization (HRO)-related characteristics has hindered progress toward implementing and sustaining evidence-based HRO practices. Hospitals would benefit both from an understanding of the organizational characteristics that support HRO practices and from knowledge about the steps necessary to achieve HRO status to reduce the risk of harm and improve outcomes. The High Reliability Health Care Maturity (HRHCM) model, a model for health care organizations' achievement of high reliability with zero patient harm, incorporates three major domains critical for promoting HROs-Leadership, Safety Culture, and Robust Process Improvement ®. A study was conducted to examine the content validity of the HRHCM model and evaluate whether it can differentiate hospitals' maturity levels for each of the model's components. Staff perceptions of patient safety at six US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) hospitals were examined to determine whether all 14 HRHCM components were present and to characterize each hospital's level of organizational maturity. Twelve of the 14 components from the HRHCM model were detected; two additional characteristics emerged that are present in the HRO literature but not represented in the model-teamwork culture and system-focused tools for learning and improvement. Each hospital's level of organizational maturity could be characterized for 9 of the 14 components. The findings suggest the HRHCM model has good content validity and that there is differentiation between hospitals on model components. Additional research is needed to understand how these components can be used to build the infrastructure necessary for reaching high reliability.

Comprehensive Deployment Method for Technical Characteristics Base on Multi-failure Modes Correlation Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, W.; Gao, J. M.; Wang, R. X.; Chen, K.; Jiang, Y.

2017-12-01

This paper put forward a new method of technical characteristics deployment based on Reliability Function Deployment (RFD) by analysing the advantages and shortages of related research works on mechanical reliability design. The matrix decomposition structure of RFD was used to describe the correlative relation between failure mechanisms, soft failures and hard failures. By considering the correlation of multiple failure modes, the reliability loss of one failure mode to the whole part was defined, and a calculation and analysis model for reliability loss was presented. According to the reliability loss, the reliability index value of the whole part was allocated to each failure mode. On the basis of the deployment of reliability index value, the inverse reliability method was employed to acquire the values of technology characteristics. The feasibility and validity of proposed method were illustrated by a development case of machining centre’s transmission system.

Reliability and Construct Validity of Limits of Stability Test in Adolescents Using a Portable Forceplate System.

PubMed

Alsalaheen, Bara; Haines, Jamie; Yorke, Amy; Broglio, Steven P

2015-12-01

To examine the reliability, convergent, and discriminant validity of the limits of stability (LOS) test to assess dynamic postural stability in adolescents using a portable forceplate system. Cross-sectional reliability observational study. School setting. Adolescents (N=36) completed all measures during the first session. To examine the reliability of the LOS test, a subset of 15 participants repeated the LOS test after 1 week. Not applicable. Outcome measurements included the LOS test, Balance Error Scoring System, Instrumented Balance Error Scoring System, and Modified Clinical Test for Sensory Interaction on Balance. A significant relation was observed among LOS composite scores (r=.36-.87, P<.05). However, no relation was observed between LOS and static balance outcome measurements. The reliability of the LOS composite scores ranged from moderate to good (intraclass correlation coefficient model 2,1=.73-.96). The results suggest that the LOS composite scores provide unique information about dynamic postural stability, and the LOS test completed at 100% of the theoretical limit appeared to be a reliable test of dynamic postural stability in adolescents. Clinicians should use dynamic balance measurement as part of their balance assessment and should not use static balance testing (eg, Balance Error Scoring System) to make inferences about dynamic balance, especially when balance assessment is used to determine rehabilitation outcomes, or when making return to play decisions after injury. Copyright © 2015 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

ASSIST: User's manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, S. C.

1986-01-01

Semi-Markov models can be used to compute the reliability of virtually any fault-tolerant system. However, the process of delineating all of the states and transitions in a model of a complex system can be devastingly tedious and error-prone. The ASSIST program allows the user to describe the semi-Markov model in a high-level language. Instead of specifying the individual states of the model, the user specifies the rules governing the behavior of the system and these are used by ASSIST to automatically generate the model. The ASSIST program is described and illustrated by examples.

Model Based Mission Assurance: Emerging Opportunities for Robotic Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, John W.; DiVenti, Tony

2016-01-01

The emergence of Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) in a Model Based Engineering framework has created new opportunities to improve effectiveness and efficiencies across the assurance functions. The MBSE environment supports not only system architecture development, but provides for support of Systems Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis concurrently in the same framework. Linking to detailed design will further improve assurance capabilities to support failures avoidance and mitigation in flight systems. This also is leading new assurance functions including model assurance and management of uncertainty in the modeling environment. Further, the assurance cases, a structured hierarchal argument or model, are emerging as a basis for supporting a comprehensive viewpoint in which to support Model Based Mission Assurance (MBMA).

Final Report: System Reliability Model for Solid-State Lighting (SSL) Luminaires

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davis, J. Lynn

2017-05-31

The primary objectives of this project was to develop and validate reliability models and accelerated stress testing (AST) methodologies for predicting the lifetime of integrated SSL luminaires. This study examined the likely failure modes for SSL luminaires including abrupt failure, excessive lumen depreciation, unacceptable color shifts, and increased power consumption. Data on the relative distribution of these failure modes were acquired through extensive accelerated stress tests and combined with industry data and other source of information on LED lighting. This data was compiled and utilized to build models of the aging behavior of key luminaire optical and electrical components.

Design verification of SIFT

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moser, Louise; Melliar-Smith, Michael; Schwartz, Richard

1987-01-01

A SIFT reliable aircraft control computer system, designed to meet the ultrahigh reliability required for safety critical flight control applications by use of processor replications and voting, was constructed for SRI, and delivered to NASA Langley for evaluation in the AIRLAB. To increase confidence in the reliability projections for SIFT, produced by a Markov reliability model, SRI constructed a formal specification, defining the meaning of reliability in the context of flight control. A further series of specifications defined, in increasing detail, the design of SIFT down to pre- and post-conditions on Pascal code procedures. Mechanically checked mathematical proofs were constructed to demonstrate that the more detailed design specifications for SIFT do indeed imply the formal reliability requirement. An additional specification defined some of the assumptions made about SIFT by the Markov model, and further proofs were constructed to show that these assumptions, as expressed by that specification, did indeed follow from the more detailed design specifications for SIFT. This report provides an outline of the methodology used for this hierarchical specification and proof, and describes the various specifications and proofs performed.

A support architecture for reliable distributed computing systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dasgupta, Partha; Leblanc, Richard J., Jr.

1988-01-01

The Clouds project is well underway to its goal of building a unified distributed operating system supporting the object model. The operating system design uses the object concept of structuring software at all levels of the system. The basic operating system was developed and work is under progress to build a usable system.

Modelling topographic potential for erosion and deposition using GIS

Treesearch

Helena Mitasova; Louis R. Iverson

1996-01-01

Modelling of erosion and deposition in complex terrain within a geographical information system (GIS) requires a high resolution digital elevation model (DEM), reliable estimation of topographic parameters, and formulation of erosion models adequate for digital representation of spatially distributed parameters. Regularized spline with tension was integrated within a...

Computer models for economic and silvicultural decisions

Treesearch

Rosalie J. Ingram

1989-01-01

Computer systems can help simplify decisionmaking to manage forest ecosystems. We now have computer models to help make forest management decisions by predicting changes associated with a particular management action. Models also help you evaluate alternatives. To be effective, the computer models must be reliable and appropriate for your situation.

Reliability of Fault Tolerant Control Systems. Part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, N. Eva

2000-01-01

This paper reports Part II of a two part effort that is intended to delineate the relationship between reliability and fault tolerant control in a quantitative manner. Reliability properties peculiar to fault-tolerant control systems are emphasized, such as the presence of analytic redundancy in high proportion, the dependence of failures on control performance, and high risks associated with decisions in redundancy management due to multiple sources of uncertainties and sometimes large processing requirements. As a consequence, coverage of failures through redundancy management can be severely limited. The paper proposes to formulate the fault tolerant control problem as an optimization problem that maximizes coverage of failures through redundancy management. Coverage modeling is attempted in a way that captures its dependence on the control performance and on the diagnostic resolution. Under the proposed redundancy management policy, it is shown that an enhanced overall system reliability can be achieved with a control law of a superior robustness, with an estimator of a higher resolution, and with a control performance requirement of a lesser stringency.

Interobserver Reliability of the Total Body Score System for Quantifying Human Decomposition.

PubMed

Dabbs, Gretchen R; Connor, Melissa; Bytheway, Joan A

2016-03-01

Several authors have tested the accuracy of the Total Body Score (TBS) method for quantifying decomposition, but none have examined the reliability of the method as a scoring system by testing interobserver error rates. Sixteen participants used the TBS system to score 59 observation packets including photographs and written descriptions of 13 human cadavers in different stages of decomposition (postmortem interval: 2-186 days). Data analysis used a two-way random model intraclass correlation in SPSS (v. 17.0). The TBS method showed "almost perfect" agreement between observers, with average absolute correlation coefficients of 0.990 and average consistency correlation coefficients of 0.991. While the TBS method may have sources of error, scoring reliability is not one of them. Individual component scores were examined, and the influences of education and experience levels were investigated. Overall, the trunk component scores were the least concordant. Suggestions are made to improve the reliability of the TBS method. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Digital avionics design and reliability analyzer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

The description and specifications for a digital avionics design and reliability analyzer are given. Its basic function is to provide for the simulation and emulation of the various fault-tolerant digital avionic computer designs that are developed. It has been established that hardware emulation at the gate-level will be utilized. The primary benefit of emulation to reliability analysis is the fact that it provides the capability to model a system at a very detailed level. Emulation allows the direct insertion of faults into the system, rather than waiting for actual hardware failures to occur. This allows for controlled and accelerated testing of system reaction to hardware failures. There is a trade study which leads to the decision to specify a two-machine system, including an emulation computer connected to a general-purpose computer. There is also an evaluation of potential computers to serve as the emulation computer.

Reliability analysis of multicellular system architectures for low-cost satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erlank, A. O.; Bridges, C. P.

2018-06-01

Multicellular system architectures are proposed as a solution to the problem of low reliability currently seen amongst small, low cost satellites. In a multicellular architecture, a set of independent k-out-of-n systems mimic the cells of a biological organism. In order to be beneficial, a multicellular architecture must provide more reliability per unit of overhead than traditional forms of redundancy. The overheads include power consumption, volume and mass. This paper describes the derivation of an analytical model for predicting a multicellular system's lifetime. The performance of such architectures is compared against that of several common forms of redundancy and proven to be beneficial under certain circumstances. In addition, the problem of peripheral interfaces and cross-strapping is investigated using a purpose-developed, multicellular simulation environment. Finally, two case studies are presented based on a prototype cell implementation, which demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed architecture.

Novel High Integrity Bio-Inspired Systems with On-Line Self-Test and Self-Repair Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samie, Mohammad; Dragffy, Gabriel; Pipe, Tony

2011-08-01

Since the beginning of life nature has been developing some remarkable solutions to the problem of creating reliable systems that can operate under difficult environmental and fault conditions. Yet, no matter how sophisticated our systems are, we are still unable to match the high degree of reliability that biological organisms posses. Since the early '90s attempts have been made to adapt biological properties and processes to the design of electronic systems but the results have always been unduly complex.This paper, proposes a novel model using a radically new approach to construct highly reliable electronic systems with online fault repair properties. It uses the characteristics and behaviour of unicellular bacteria and bacterial communities to achieve this. The result is a configurable bio-inspired cellular array architecture that, with built-in self-diagnostic and self-repair properties, can implement any application specific electronic system but is particularly suited for safety critical environments, such as space.

Theoretical relationship between vibration transmissibility and driving-point response functions of the human body.

PubMed

Dong, Ren G; Welcome, Daniel E; McDowell, Thomas W; Wu, John Z

2013-11-25

The relationship between the vibration transmissibility and driving-point response functions (DPRFs) of the human body is important for understanding vibration exposures of the system and for developing valid models. This study identified their theoretical relationship and demonstrated that the sum of the DPRFs can be expressed as a linear combination of the transmissibility functions of the individual mass elements distributed throughout the system. The relationship is verified using several human vibration models. This study also clarified the requirements for reliably quantifying transmissibility values used as references for calibrating the system models. As an example application, this study used the developed theory to perform a preliminary analysis of the method for calibrating models using both vibration transmissibility and DPRFs. The results of the analysis show that the combined method can theoretically result in a unique and valid solution of the model parameters, at least for linear systems. However, the validation of the method itself does not guarantee the validation of the calibrated model, because the validation of the calibration also depends on the model structure and the reliability and appropriate representation of the reference functions. The basic theory developed in this study is also applicable to the vibration analyses of other structures.

Social franchising primary healthcare clinics--a model for South African National Health Insurance?

PubMed

Robinson, Andrew Ken Lacey

2015-09-21

This article describes the first government social franchise initiative in the world to deliver a 'brand' of quality primary healthcare (PHC) clinic services. Quality and standards of care are not uniformly and reliably delivered across government PHC clinics in North West Province, South Africa, despite government support, numerous policies, guidelines and in-service training sessions provided to staff. Currently the strongest predictor of good-quality service is the skill and dedication of the facility manager. A project utilising the social franchising business model, harvesting best practices, has been implemented with the aim of developing a system to ensure reliably excellent healthcare service provision in every facility in North West. The services of social franchising consultants have been procured to develop the business model to drive this initiative. Best practices have been benchmarked, and policies, guidelines and clinic support systems have been reviewed, evaluated and assessed, and incorporated into the business plan. A pilot clinic has been selected to refine and develop a working social franchise model. This will then be replicated in one clinic to confirm proof of concept before further scale-up. The social franchise business model can provide solutions to a reliable and recognisable 'brand' of quality universal coverage of healthcare services.

Parallelizing Timed Petri Net simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicol, David M.

1993-01-01

The possibility of using parallel processing to accelerate the simulation of Timed Petri Nets (TPN's) was studied. It was recognized that complex system development tools often transform system descriptions into TPN's or TPN-like models, which are then simulated to obtain information about system behavior. Viewed this way, it was important that the parallelization of TPN's be as automatic as possible, to admit the possibility of the parallelization being embedded in the system design tool. Later years of the grant were devoted to examining the problem of joint performance and reliability analysis, to explore whether both types of analysis could be accomplished within a single framework. In this final report, the results of our studies are summarized. We believe that the problem of parallelizing TPN's automatically for MIMD architectures has been almost completely solved for a large and important class of problems. Our initial investigations into joint performance/reliability analysis are two-fold; it was shown that Monte Carlo simulation, with importance sampling, offers promise of joint analysis in the context of a single tool, and methods for the parallel simulation of general Continuous Time Markov Chains, a model framework within which joint performance/reliability models can be cast, were developed. However, very much more work is needed to determine the scope and generality of these approaches. The results obtained in our two studies, future directions for this type of work, and a list of publications are included.

Measurement-based reliability prediction methodology. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Linn, Linda Shen

1991-01-01

In the past, analytical and measurement based models were developed to characterize computer system behavior. An open issue is how these models can be used, if at all, for system design improvement. The issue is addressed here. A combined statistical/analytical approach to use measurements from one environment to model the system failure behavior in a new environment is proposed. A comparison of the predicted results with the actual data from the new environment shows a close correspondence.

A diameter-sensitive flow entropy method for reliability consideration in water distribution system design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Haixing; Savić, Dragan; Kapelan, Zoran; Zhao, Ming; Yuan, Yixing; Zhao, Hongbin

2014-07-01

Flow entropy is a measure of uniformity of pipe flows in water distribution systems. By maximizing flow entropy one can identify reliable layouts or connectivity in networks. In order to overcome the disadvantage of the common definition of flow entropy that does not consider the impact of pipe diameter on reliability, an extended definition of flow entropy, termed as diameter-sensitive flow entropy, is proposed. This new methodology is then assessed by using other reliability methods, including Monte Carlo Simulation, a pipe failure probability model, and a surrogate measure (resilience index) integrated with water demand and pipe failure uncertainty. The reliability assessment is based on a sample of WDS designs derived from an optimization process for each of the two benchmark networks. Correlation analysis is used to evaluate quantitatively the relationship between entropy and reliability. To ensure reliability, a comparative analysis between the flow entropy and the new method is conducted. The results demonstrate that the diameter-sensitive flow entropy shows consistently much stronger correlation with the three reliability measures than simple flow entropy. Therefore, the new flow entropy method can be taken as a better surrogate measure for reliability and could be potentially integrated into the optimal design problem of WDSs. Sensitivity analysis results show that the velocity parameters used in the new flow entropy has no significant impact on the relationship between diameter-sensitive flow entropy and reliability.

NDE reliability and probability of detection (POD) evolution and paradigm shift

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singh, Surendra

2014-02-18

The subject of NDE Reliability and POD has gone through multiple phases since its humble beginning in the late 1960s. This was followed by several programs including the important one nicknamed “Have Cracks – Will Travel” or in short “Have Cracks” by Lockheed Georgia Company for US Air Force during 1974–1978. This and other studies ultimately led to a series of developments in the field of reliability and POD starting from the introduction of fracture mechanics and Damaged Tolerant Design (DTD) to statistical framework by Bernes and Hovey in 1981 for POD estimation to MIL-STD HDBK 1823 (1999) and 1823Amore » (2009). During the last decade, various groups and researchers have further studied the reliability and POD using Model Assisted POD (MAPOD), Simulation Assisted POD (SAPOD), and applying Bayesian Statistics. All and each of these developments had one objective, i.e., improving accuracy of life prediction in components that to a large extent depends on the reliability and capability of NDE methods. Therefore, it is essential to have a reliable detection and sizing of large flaws in components. Currently, POD is used for studying reliability and capability of NDE methods, though POD data offers no absolute truth regarding NDE reliability, i.e., system capability, effects of flaw morphology, and quantifying the human factors. Furthermore, reliability and POD have been reported alike in meaning but POD is not NDE reliability. POD is a subset of the reliability that consists of six phases: 1) samples selection using DOE, 2) NDE equipment setup and calibration, 3) System Measurement Evaluation (SME) including Gage Repeatability and Reproducibility (Gage R and R) and Analysis Of Variance (ANOVA), 4) NDE system capability and electronic and physical saturation, 5) acquiring and fitting data to a model, and data analysis, and 6) POD estimation. This paper provides an overview of all major POD milestones for the last several decades and discuss rationale for using Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME), MAPOD, SAPOD, and Bayesian statistics for studying controllable and non-controllable variables including human factors for estimating POD. Another objective is to list gaps between “hoped for” versus validated or fielded failed hardware.« less

Product component genealogy modeling and field-failure prediction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

King, Caleb; Hong, Yili; Meeker, William Q.

Many industrial products consist of multiple components that are necessary for system operation. There is an abundance of literature on modeling the lifetime of such components through competing risks models. During the life-cycle of a product, it is common for there to be incremental design changes to improve reliability, to reduce costs, or due to changes in availability of certain part numbers. These changes can affect product reliability but are often ignored in system lifetime modeling. By incorporating this information about changes in part numbers over time (information that is readily available in most production databases), better accuracy can bemore » achieved in predicting time to failure, thus yielding more accurate field-failure predictions. This paper presents methods for estimating parameters and predictions for this generational model and a comparison with existing methods through the use of simulation. Our results indicate that the generational model has important practical advantages and outperforms the existing methods in predicting field failures.« less

Product component genealogy modeling and field-failure prediction

DOE PAGES

King, Caleb; Hong, Yili; Meeker, William Q.

2016-04-13

Many industrial products consist of multiple components that are necessary for system operation. There is an abundance of literature on modeling the lifetime of such components through competing risks models. During the life-cycle of a product, it is common for there to be incremental design changes to improve reliability, to reduce costs, or due to changes in availability of certain part numbers. These changes can affect product reliability but are often ignored in system lifetime modeling. By incorporating this information about changes in part numbers over time (information that is readily available in most production databases), better accuracy can bemore » achieved in predicting time to failure, thus yielding more accurate field-failure predictions. This paper presents methods for estimating parameters and predictions for this generational model and a comparison with existing methods through the use of simulation. Our results indicate that the generational model has important practical advantages and outperforms the existing methods in predicting field failures.« less

Reliability of System Identification Techniques to Assess Standing Balance in Healthy Elderly

PubMed Central

Maier, Andrea B.; Aarts, Ronald G. K. M.; van Gerven, Joop M. A.; Arendzen, J. Hans; Schouten, Alfred C.; Meskers, Carel G. M.; van der Kooij, Herman

2016-01-01

Objectives System identification techniques have the potential to assess the contribution of the underlying systems involved in standing balance by applying well-known disturbances. We investigated the reliability of standing balance parameters obtained with multivariate closed loop system identification techniques. Methods In twelve healthy elderly balance tests were performed twice a day during three days. Body sway was measured during two minutes of standing with eyes closed and the Balance test Room (BalRoom) was used to apply four disturbances simultaneously: two sensory disturbances, to the proprioceptive and the visual system, and two mechanical disturbances applied at the leg and trunk segment. Using system identification techniques, sensitivity functions of the sensory disturbances and the neuromuscular controller were estimated. Based on the generalizability theory (G theory), systematic errors and sources of variability were assessed using linear mixed models and reliability was assessed by computing indexes of dependability (ID), standard error of measurement (SEM) and minimal detectable change (MDC). Results A systematic error was found between the first and second trial in the sensitivity functions. No systematic error was found in the neuromuscular controller and body sway. The reliability of 15 of 25 parameters and body sway were moderate to excellent when the results of two trials on three days were averaged. To reach an excellent reliability on one day in 7 out of 25 parameters, it was predicted that at least seven trials must be averaged. Conclusion This study shows that system identification techniques are a promising method to assess the underlying systems involved in standing balance in elderly. However, most of the parameters do not appear to be reliable unless a large number of trials are collected across multiple days. To reach an excellent reliability in one third of the parameters, a training session for participants is needed and at least seven trials of two minutes must be performed on one day. PMID:26953694

Determination of Turboprop Reduction Gearbox System Fatigue Life and Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Lewicki, David G.; Savage, Michael; Vlcek, Brian L.

2007-01-01

Two computational models to determine the fatigue life and reliability of a commercial turboprop gearbox are compared with each other and with field data. These models are (1) Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives of individual bearings and gears comprising the system and (2) two-parameter Weibull distribution function for bearings and gears comprising the system using strict-series system reliability to combine the calculated individual component lives in the gearbox. The Monte Carlo simulation included the virtual testing of 744,450 gearboxes. Two sets of field data were obtained from 64 gearboxes that were first-run to removal for cause, were refurbished and placed back in service, and then were second-run until removal for cause. A series of equations were empirically developed from the Monte Carlo simulation to determine the statistical variation in predicted life and Weibull slope as a function of the number of gearboxes failed. The resultant L(sub 10) life from the field data was 5,627 hr. From strict-series system reliability, the predicted L(sub 10) life was 774 hr. From the Monte Carlo simulation, the median value for the L(sub 10) gearbox lives equaled 757 hr. Half of the gearbox L(sub 10) lives will be less than this value and the other half more. The resultant L(sub 10) life of the second-run (refurbished) gearboxes was 1,334 hr. The apparent load-life exponent p for the roller bearings is 5.2. Were the bearing lives to be recalculated with a load-life exponent p equal to 5.2, the predicted L(sub 10) life of the gearbox would be equal to the actual life obtained in the field. The component failure distribution of the gearbox from the Monte Carlo simulation was nearly identical to that using the strict-series system reliability analysis, proving the compatibility of these methods.

Reliability analysis of a wastewater treatment plant using fault tree analysis and Monte Carlo simulation.

PubMed

Taheriyoun, Masoud; Moradinejad, Saber

2015-01-01

The reliability of a wastewater treatment plant is a critical issue when the effluent is reused or discharged to water resources. Main factors affecting the performance of the wastewater treatment plant are the variation of the influent, inherent variability in the treatment processes, deficiencies in design, mechanical equipment, and operational failures. Thus, meeting the established reuse/discharge criteria requires assessment of plant reliability. Among many techniques developed in system reliability analysis, fault tree analysis (FTA) is one of the popular and efficient methods. FTA is a top down, deductive failure analysis in which an undesired state of a system is analyzed. In this study, the problem of reliability was studied on Tehran West Town wastewater treatment plant. This plant is a conventional activated sludge process, and the effluent is reused in landscape irrigation. The fault tree diagram was established with the violation of allowable effluent BOD as the top event in the diagram, and the deficiencies of the system were identified based on the developed model. Some basic events are operator's mistake, physical damage, and design problems. The analytical method is minimal cut sets (based on numerical probability) and Monte Carlo simulation. Basic event probabilities were calculated according to available data and experts' opinions. The results showed that human factors, especially human error had a great effect on top event occurrence. The mechanical, climate, and sewer system factors were in subsequent tier. Literature shows applying FTA has been seldom used in the past wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) risk analysis studies. Thus, the developed FTA model in this study considerably improves the insight into causal failure analysis of a WWTP. It provides an efficient tool for WWTP operators and decision makers to achieve the standard limits in wastewater reuse and discharge to the environment.

Calibration and combination of dynamical seasonal forecasts to enhance the value of predicted probabilities for managing risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutton, John A.; James, Richard P.; Ross, Jeremy D.

2013-06-01

Seasonal probability forecasts produced with numerical dynamics on supercomputers offer great potential value in managing risk and opportunity created by seasonal variability. The skill and reliability of contemporary forecast systems can be increased by calibration methods that use the historical performance of the forecast system to improve the ongoing real-time forecasts. Two calibration methods are applied to seasonal surface temperature forecasts of the US National Weather Service, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, and to a World Climate Service multi-model ensemble created by combining those two forecasts with Bayesian methods. As expected, the multi-model is somewhat more skillful and more reliable than the original models taken alone. The potential value of the multimodel in decision making is illustrated with the profits achieved in simulated trading of a weather derivative. In addition to examining the seasonal models, the article demonstrates that calibrated probability forecasts of weekly average temperatures for leads of 2-4 weeks are also skillful and reliable. The conversion of ensemble forecasts into probability distributions of impact variables is illustrated with degree days derived from the temperature forecasts. Some issues related to loss of stationarity owing to long-term warming are considered. The main conclusion of the article is that properly calibrated probabilistic forecasts possess sufficient skill and reliability to contribute to effective decisions in government and business activities that are sensitive to intraseasonal and seasonal climate variability.

RICOR's new development of a highly reliable integral rotary cooler: engineering and reliability aspects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Filis, Avishai; Pundak, Nachman; Barak, Moshe; Porat, Ze'ev; Jaeger, Mordechai

2011-06-01

The growing demand for EO applications that work around the clock 24hr/7days a week, such as in border surveillance systems, emphasizes the need for a highly reliable cryocooler having increased operational availability and decreased integrated system Life Cycle (ILS) cost. In order to meet this need RICOR has developed a new rotary Stirling cryocooler, model K508N, intended to double the K508's operating MTTF achieving 20,000 operating MTTF hours. The K508N employs RICOR's latest mechanical design technologies such as optimized bearings and greases, bearings preloading, advanced seals, laser welded cold finger and robust design structure with increased natural frequency compared to the K508 model. The cooler enhanced MTTF was demonstrated by a Validation and Verification (V&V) plan comprising analytical means and a comparative accelerated life test between the standard K508 and the K508N models. Particularly, point estimate and confidence interval for the MTTF improvement factor where calculated periodically during and after the test. The (V&V) effort revealed that the K508N meets its MTTF design goal. The paper will focus on the technical and engineering aspects of the new design. In addition it will discuss the market needs and expectations, investigate the reliability data of the present reference K508 model; and report the accelerate life test data and the statistical analysis methodology as well as its underlying assumptions and results.

Reliability Analysis of the Space Station Freedom Electrical Power System

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-08-01

Cleveland, Ohio, who assisted in obtaining related research materials and provided feedback on our efforts to produce a dynamic analysis tool useful to...System software that we used to do our analysis of the electrical power system. Thanks are due to Dr. Vira Chankong, my thesis advisor, for his...a frequency duration analysis . Using a transition rate matrix with a model of the photovoltaic and solar dynamic systems, they have one model that

Power transfer systems for future navy helicopters. Final report 25 Jun 70--28 Jun 72

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bossler, R.B. Jr.

1972-11-01

The purpose of this program was to conduct an analysis of helicopter power transfer systems (pts), both conventional and advanced concept type, with the objective of reducing specific weights and improving reliability beyond present values. The analysis satisfied requirements specified for a 200,000 pound cargo transport helicopter (CTH), a 70,000 pound heavy assault helicopter, and a 15,000 pound non-combat search and rescue helicopter. Four selected gearing systems (out of seven studied), optimized for lightest weight and equal reliability for the CTH, using component proportioning via stress and stiffness equations, had no significant difference between their aircraft payloads. All optimized ptsmore » were approximately 70% of statistically predicted weight. Reliability increase is predicted via gearbox derating using Weibull relationships. Among advanced concepts, the Turbine Integrated Geared Rotor was competitive for weight, technology availability and reliability increase but handicapped by a special engine requirement. The warm cycle system was found not competitive. Helicopter parametric weight analysis is shown. Advanced development Plans are presented for the pts for the CTH, including total pts system, selected pts components, and scale model flight testing in a Kaman HH2 helicopter.« less

Physics Based Modeling in Design and Development for U.S. Defense Held in Denver, Colorado on November 14-17, 2011. Volume 2: Audio and Movie Files

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-17

Mr. Frank Salvatore, High Performance Technologies FIXED AND ROTARY WING AIRCRAFT 13274 - “CREATE-AV DaVinci : Model-Based Engineering for Systems... Tools for Reliability Improvement and Addressing Modularity Issues in Evaluation and Physical Testing”, Dr. Richard Heine, Army Materiel Systems

Analysis Testing of Sociocultural Factors Influence on Human Reliability within Sociotechnical Systems: The Algerian Oil Companies.

PubMed

Laidoune, Abdelbaki; Rahal Gharbi, Med El Hadi

2016-09-01

The influence of sociocultural factors on human reliability within an open sociotechnical systems is highlighted. The design of such systems is enhanced by experience feedback. The study was focused on a survey related to the observation of working cases, and by processing of incident/accident statistics and semistructured interviews in the qualitative part. In order to consolidate the study approach, we considered a schedule for the purpose of standard statistical measurements. We tried to be unbiased by supporting an exhaustive list of all worker categories including age, sex, educational level, prescribed task, accountability level, etc. The survey was reinforced by a schedule distributed to 300 workers belonging to two oil companies. This schedule comprises 30 items related to six main factors that influence human reliability. Qualitative observations and schedule data processing had shown that the sociocultural factors can negatively and positively influence operator behaviors. The explored sociocultural factors influence the human reliability both in qualitative and quantitative manners. The proposed model shows how reliability can be enhanced by some measures such as experience feedback based on, for example, safety improvements, training, and information. With that is added the continuous systems improvements to improve sociocultural reality and to reduce negative behaviors.

Simulating fail-stop in asynchronous distributed systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sabel, Laura; Marzullo, Keith

1994-01-01

The fail-stop failure model appears frequently in the distributed systems literature. However, in an asynchronous distributed system, the fail-stop model cannot be implemented. In particular, it is impossible to reliably detect crash failures in an asynchronous system. In this paper, we show that it is possible to specify and implement a failure model that is indistinguishable from the fail-stop model from the point of view of any process within an asynchronous system. We give necessary conditions for a failure model to be indistinguishable from the fail-stop model, and derive lower bounds on the amount of process replication needed to implement such a failure model. We present a simple one-round protocol for implementing one such failure model, which we call simulated fail-stop.

Decision-theoretic methodology for reliability and risk allocation in nuclear power plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cho, N.Z.; Papazoglou, I.A.; Bari, R.A.

1985-01-01

This paper describes a methodology for allocating reliability and risk to various reactor systems, subsystems, components, operations, and structures in a consistent manner, based on a set of global safety criteria which are not rigid. The problem is formulated as a multiattribute decision analysis paradigm; the multiobjective optimization, which is performed on a PRA model and reliability cost functions, serves as the guiding principle for reliability and risk allocation. The concept of noninferiority is used in the multiobjective optimization problem. Finding the noninferior solution set is the main theme of the current approach. The assessment of the decision maker's preferencesmore » could then be performed more easily on the noninferior solution set. Some results of the methodology applications to a nontrivial risk model are provided and several outstanding issues such as generic allocation and preference assessment are discussed.« less

Dynamic one-dimensional modeling of secondary settling tanks and system robustness evaluation.

PubMed

Li, Ben; Stenstrom, M K

2014-01-01

One-dimensional secondary settling tank models are widely used in current engineering practice for design and optimization, and usually can be expressed as a nonlinear hyperbolic or nonlinear strongly degenerate parabolic partial differential equation (PDE). Reliable numerical methods are needed to produce approximate solutions that converge to the exact analytical solutions. In this study, we introduced a reliable numerical technique, the Yee-Roe-Davis (YRD) method as the governing PDE solver, and compared its reliability with the prevalent Stenstrom-Vitasovic-Takács (SVT) method by assessing their simulation results at various operating conditions. The YRD method also produced a similar solution to the previously developed Method G and Enquist-Osher method. The YRD and SVT methods were also used for a time-to-failure evaluation, and the results show that the choice of numerical method can greatly impact the solution. Reliable numerical methods, such as the YRD method, are strongly recommended.

Modelling utility-scale wind power plants. Part 2: Capacity credit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milligan, Michael R.

2000-10-01

As the worldwide use of wind turbine generators in utility-scale applications continues to increase, it will become increasingly important to assess the economic and reliability impact of these intermittent resources. Although the utility industry appears to be moving towards a restructured environment, basic economic and reliability issues will continue to be relevant to companies involved with electricity generation. This article is the second in a two-part series that addresses modelling approaches and results that were obtained in several case studies and research projects at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This second article focuses on wind plant capacity credit as measured with power system reliability indices. Reliability-based methods of measuring capacity credit are compared with wind plant capacity factor. The relationship between capacity credit and accurate wind forecasting is also explored. Published in 2000 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Measuring acuity of the approximate number system reliably and validly: the evaluation of an adaptive test procedure

PubMed Central

Lindskog, Marcus; Winman, Anders; Juslin, Peter; Poom, Leo

2013-01-01

Two studies investigated the reliability and predictive validity of commonly used measures and models of Approximate Number System acuity (ANS). Study 1 investigated reliability by both an empirical approach and a simulation of maximum obtainable reliability under ideal conditions. Results showed that common measures of the Weber fraction (w) are reliable only when using a substantial number of trials, even under ideal conditions. Study 2 compared different purported measures of ANS acuity as for convergent and predictive validity in a within-subjects design and evaluated an adaptive test using the ZEST algorithm. Results showed that the adaptive measure can reduce the number of trials needed to reach acceptable reliability. Only direct tests with non-symbolic numerosity discriminations of stimuli presented simultaneously were related to arithmetic fluency. This correlation remained when controlling for general cognitive ability and perceptual speed. Further, the purported indirect measure of ANS acuity in terms of the Numeric Distance Effect (NDE) was not reliable and showed no sign of predictive validity. The non-symbolic NDE for reaction time was significantly related to direct w estimates in a direction contrary to the expected. Easier stimuli were found to be more reliable, but only harder (7:8 ratio) stimuli contributed to predictive validity. PMID:23964256

Reliability of an ordinal rating system for assessing the amount of mud and feces (tag) on cattle hides at slaughter.

PubMed

Jordan, D; McEwen, S A; Wilson, J B; McNab, W B; Lammerding, A M

1999-05-01

A study was conducted to provide a quantitative description of the amount of tag (mud, soil, and bedding) adhered to the hides of feedlot beef cattle and to appraise the statistical reliability of a subjective rating system for assessing this trait. Initially, a single rater obtained baseline data by assessing 2,417 cattle for 1 month at an Ontario beef processing plant. Analysis revealed that there was a strong tendency for animals within sale-lots to have a similar total tag score (intralot correlation = 0.42). Baseline data were summarized by fitting a linear model describing an individual's total tag score as the sum of their lot mean tag score (LMTS) plus an amount representing normal variation within the lot. LMTSs predicted by the linear model were adequately described by a beta distribution with parameters nu = 3.12 and omega = 5.82 scaled to fit on the 0-to-9 interval. Five raters, trained in use of the tag scoring system, made 1,334 tag score observations in a commercial abattoir, allowing reliability to be assessed at the individual level and at the lot level. High values for reliability were obtained for individual total tag score (0.84) and lot total tag score (0.83); these values suggest that the tag scoring system could be used in the marketing and slaughter of Ontario beef cattle to improve the cleanliness of animals presented for slaughter in an effort to control the entry of microbial contamination into abattoirs. Implications for the use of the tag scoring system in research are discussed.

solveME: fast and reliable solution of nonlinear ME models.

PubMed

Yang, Laurence; Ma, Ding; Ebrahim, Ali; Lloyd, Colton J; Saunders, Michael A; Palsson, Bernhard O

2016-09-22

Genome-scale models of metabolism and macromolecular expression (ME) significantly expand the scope and predictive capabilities of constraint-based modeling. ME models present considerable computational challenges: they are much (>30 times) larger than corresponding metabolic reconstructions (M models), are multiscale, and growth maximization is a nonlinear programming (NLP) problem, mainly due to macromolecule dilution constraints. Here, we address these computational challenges. We develop a fast and numerically reliable solution method for growth maximization in ME models using a quad-precision NLP solver (Quad MINOS). Our method was up to 45 % faster than binary search for six significant digits in growth rate. We also develop a fast, quad-precision flux variability analysis that is accelerated (up to 60× speedup) via solver warm-starts. Finally, we employ the tools developed to investigate growth-coupled succinate overproduction, accounting for proteome constraints. Just as genome-scale metabolic reconstructions have become an invaluable tool for computational and systems biologists, we anticipate that these fast and numerically reliable ME solution methods will accelerate the wide-spread adoption of ME models for researchers in these fields.

A reliability study on brain activation during active and passive arm movements supported by an MRI-compatible robot.

PubMed

Estévez, Natalia; Yu, Ningbo; Brügger, Mike; Villiger, Michael; Hepp-Reymond, Marie-Claude; Riener, Robert; Kollias, Spyros

2014-11-01

In neurorehabilitation, longitudinal assessment of arm movement related brain function in patients with motor disability is challenging due to variability in task performance. MRI-compatible robots monitor and control task performance, yielding more reliable evaluation of brain function over time. The main goals of the present study were first to define the brain network activated while performing active and passive elbow movements with an MRI-compatible arm robot (MaRIA) in healthy subjects, and second to test the reproducibility of this activation over time. For the fMRI analysis two models were compared. In model 1 movement onset and duration were included, whereas in model 2 force and range of motion were added to the analysis. Reliability of brain activation was tested with several statistical approaches applied on individual and group activation maps and on summary statistics. The activated network included mainly the primary motor cortex, primary and secondary somatosensory cortex, superior and inferior parietal cortex, medial and lateral premotor regions, and subcortical structures. Reliability analyses revealed robust activation for active movements with both fMRI models and all the statistical methods used. Imposed passive movements also elicited mainly robust brain activation for individual and group activation maps, and reliability was improved by including additional force and range of motion using model 2. These findings demonstrate that the use of robotic devices, such as MaRIA, can be useful to reliably assess arm movement related brain activation in longitudinal studies and may contribute in studies evaluating therapies and brain plasticity following injury in the nervous system.

PREDICTIVE UNCERTAINTY IN HYDROLOGIC AND WATER QUALITY MODELING: APPROACHES, APPLICATION TO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT, AND FUTURE CHALLENGES (PRESENTATION)

EPA Science Inventory

Extant process-based hydrologic and water quality models are indispensable to water resources planning and environmental management. However, models are only approximations of real systems and often calibrated with incomplete and uncertain data. Reliable estimates, or perhaps f...

PREDICTIVE UNCERTAINTY IN HYDROLOGIC AND WATER QUALITY MODELING: APPROACHES, APPLICATION TO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT, AND FUTURE CHALLENGES

EPA Science Inventory

Extant process-based hydrologic and water quality models are indispensable to water resources planning and environmental management. However, models are only approximations of real systems and often calibrated with incomplete and uncertain data. Reliable estimates, or perhaps f...

Probabilistic Prediction of Lifetimes of Ceramic Parts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Gyekenyesi, John P.; Jadaan, Osama M.; Palfi, Tamas; Powers, Lynn; Reh, Stefan; Baker, Eric H.

2006-01-01

ANSYS/CARES/PDS is a software system that combines the ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) software with a modified version of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life (CARES/Life) Version 6.0 software. [A prior version of CARES/Life was reported in Program for Evaluation of Reliability of Ceramic Parts (LEW-16018), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 20, No. 3 (March 1996), page 28.] CARES/Life models effects of stochastic strength, slow crack growth, and stress distribution on the overall reliability of a ceramic component. The essence of the enhancement in CARES/Life 6.0 is the capability to predict the probability of failure using results from transient finite-element analysis. ANSYS PDS models the effects of uncertainty in material properties, dimensions, and loading on the stress distribution and deformation. ANSYS/CARES/PDS accounts for the effects of probabilistic strength, probabilistic loads, probabilistic material properties, and probabilistic tolerances on the lifetime and reliability of the component. Even failure probability becomes a stochastic quantity that can be tracked as a response variable. ANSYS/CARES/PDS enables tracking of all stochastic quantities in the design space, thereby enabling more precise probabilistic prediction of lifetimes of ceramic components.

Time-Varying, Multi-Scale Adaptive System Reliability Analysis of Lifeline Infrastructure Networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gearhart, Jared Lee; Kurtz, Nolan Scot

2014-09-01

The majority of current societal and economic needs world-wide are met by the existing networked, civil infrastructure. Because the cost of managing such infrastructure is high and increases with time, risk-informed decision making is essential for those with management responsibilities for these systems. To address such concerns, a methodology that accounts for new information, deterioration, component models, component importance, group importance, network reliability, hierarchical structure organization, and efficiency concerns has been developed. This methodology analyzes the use of new information through the lens of adaptive Importance Sampling for structural reliability problems. Deterioration, multi-scale bridge models, and time-variant component importance aremore » investigated for a specific network. Furthermore, both bridge and pipeline networks are studied for group and component importance, as well as for hierarchical structures in the context of specific networks. Efficiency is the primary driver throughout this study. With this risk-informed approach, those responsible for management can address deteriorating infrastructure networks in an organized manner.« less

Methodology to Improve Design of Accelerated Life Tests in Civil Engineering Projects

PubMed Central

Lin, Jing; Yuan, Yongbo; Zhou, Jilai; Gao, Jie

2014-01-01

For reliability testing an Energy Expansion Tree (EET) and a companion Energy Function Model (EFM) are proposed and described in this paper. Different from conventional approaches, the EET provides a more comprehensive and objective way to systematically identify external energy factors affecting reliability. The EFM introduces energy loss into a traditional Function Model to identify internal energy sources affecting reliability. The combination creates a sound way to enumerate the energies to which a system may be exposed during its lifetime. We input these energies into planning an accelerated life test, a Multi Environment Over Stress Test. The test objective is to discover weak links and interactions among the system and the energies to which it is exposed, and design them out. As an example, the methods are applied to the pipe in subsea pipeline. However, they can be widely used in other civil engineering industries as well. The proposed method is compared with current methods. PMID:25111800

Reviewing Reliability and Validity of Information for University Educational Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otsuka, Yusaku

To better utilize evaluations in higher education, it is necessary to share the methods of reviewing reliability and validity of examination scores and grades, and to accumulate and share data for confirming results. Before the GPA system is first introduced into a university or college, the reliability of examination scores and grades, especially for essay examinations, must be assured. Validity is a complicated concept, so should be assured in various ways, including using professional audits, theoretical models, and statistical data analysis. Because individual students and teachers are continually improving, using evaluations to appraise their progress is not always compatible with using evaluations in appraising the implementation of accountability in various departments or the university overall. To better utilize evaluations and improve higher education, evaluations should be integrated into the current system by sharing the vision of an academic learning community and promoting interaction between students and teachers based on sufficiently reliable and validated evaluation tools.

Delay Analysis of Car-to-Car Reliable Data Delivery Strategies Based on Data Mulling with Network Coding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Joon-Sang; Lee, Uichin; Oh, Soon Young; Gerla, Mario; Lun, Desmond Siumen; Ro, Won Woo; Park, Joonseok

Vehicular ad hoc networks (VANET) aims to enhance vehicle navigation safety by providing an early warning system: any chance of accidents is informed through the wireless communication between vehicles. For the warning system to work, it is crucial that safety messages be reliably delivered to the target vehicles in a timely manner and thus reliable and timely data dissemination service is the key building block of VANET. Data mulling technique combined with three strategies, network codeing, erasure coding and repetition coding, is proposed for the reliable and timely data dissemination service. Particularly, vehicles in the opposite direction on a highway are exploited as data mules, mobile nodes physically delivering data to destinations, to overcome intermittent network connectivity cause by sparse vehicle traffic. Using analytic models, we show that in such a highway data mulling scenario the network coding based strategy outperforms erasure coding and repetition based strategies.

Reliability models for dataflow computer systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kavi, K. M.; Buckles, B. P.

1985-01-01

The demands for concurrent operation within a computer system and the representation of parallelism in programming languages have yielded a new form of program representation known as data flow (DENN 74, DENN 75, TREL 82a). A new model based on data flow principles for parallel computations and parallel computer systems is presented. Necessary conditions for liveness and deadlock freeness in data flow graphs are derived. The data flow graph is used as a model to represent asynchronous concurrent computer architectures including data flow computers.

Validation Methods Research for Fault-Tolerant Avionics and Control Systems Sub-Working Group Meeting. CARE 3 peer review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trivedi, K. S. (Editor); Clary, J. B. (Editor)

1980-01-01

A computer aided reliability estimation procedure (CARE 3), developed to model the behavior of ultrareliable systems required by flight-critical avionics and control systems, is evaluated. The mathematical models, numerical method, and fault-tolerant architecture modeling requirements are examined, and the testing and characterization procedures are discussed. Recommendations aimed at enhancing CARE 3 are presented; in particular, the need for a better exposition of the method and the user interface is emphasized.

System statistical reliability model and analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lekach, V. S.; Rood, H.

1973-01-01

A digital computer code was developed to simulate the time-dependent behavior of the 5-kwe reactor thermoelectric system. The code was used to determine lifetime sensitivity coefficients for a number of system design parameters, such as thermoelectric module efficiency and degradation rate, radiator absorptivity and emissivity, fuel element barrier defect constant, beginning-of-life reactivity, etc. A probability distribution (mean and standard deviation) was estimated for each of these design parameters. Then, error analysis was used to obtain a probability distribution for the system lifetime (mean = 7.7 years, standard deviation = 1.1 years). From this, the probability that the system will achieve the design goal of 5 years lifetime is 0.993. This value represents an estimate of the degradation reliability of the system.

The Role of Reliability, Vulnerability and Resilience in the Management of Water Quality Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lence, B. J.; Maier, H. R.

2001-05-01

The risk based performance indicators reliability, vulnerability and resilience provide measures of the frequency, magnitude and duration of the failure of water resources systems, respectively. They have been applied primarily to water supply problems, including the assessment of the performance of reservoirs and water distribution systems. Applications to water quality case studies have been limited, although the need to consider the length and magnitude of violations of a particular water quality standard has been recognized for some time. In this research, the role of reliability, vulnerability and resilience in water quality management applications is investigated by examining their significance as performance measures for water quality systems and assessing their potential for assisting in decision making processes. The importance of each performance indicator is discussed and a framework for classifying such systems, based on the relative significance of each of these indicators, is introduced and illustrated qualitatively with various case studies. Quantitative examples drawn from both lake and river water quality modeling exercises are then provided.

Recent Developments at the NASA Langley Research Center National Transonic Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paryz, Roman W.

2011-01-01

Several upgrade projects have been completed or are just getting started at the NASA Langley Research Center National Transonic Facility. These projects include a new high capacity semi-span balance, model dynamics damping system, semi-span model check load stand, data acquisition system upgrade, facility automation system upgrade and a facility reliability assessment. This presentation will give a brief synopsis of each of these efforts.

Software Technology for Adaptable, Reliable Systems (STARS)

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-03-25

Tmeline(3), SECOMO(3), SEER(3), GSFC Software Engineering Lab Model(l), SLIM(4), SEER-SEM(l), SPQR (2), PRICE-S(2), internally-developed models(3), APMSS(1...3 " Timeline - 3 " SASET (Software Architecture Sizing Estimating Tool) - 2 " MicroMan 11- 2 * LCM (Logistics Cost Model) - 2 * SPQR - 2 * PRICE-S - 2

The PAWS and STEM reliability analysis programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Ricky W.; Stevenson, Philip H.

1988-01-01

The PAWS and STEM programs are new design/validation tools. These programs provide a flexible, user-friendly, language-based interface for the input of Markov models describing the behavior of fault-tolerant computer systems. These programs produce exact solutions of the probability of system failure and provide a conservative estimate of the number of significant digits in the solution. PAWS uses a Pade approximation as a solution technique; STEM uses a Taylor series as a solution technique. Both programs have the capability to solve numerically stiff models. PAWS and STEM possess complementary properties with regard to their input space; and, an additional strength of these programs is that they accept input compatible with the SURE program. If used in conjunction with SURE, PAWS and STEM provide a powerful suite of programs to analyze the reliability of fault-tolerant computer systems.

Microgrid Analysis Tools Summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jimenez, Antonio; Haase, Scott G; Mathur, Shivani

2018-03-05

The over-arching goal of the Alaska Microgrid Partnership is to reduce the use of total imported fuel into communities to secure all energy services by at least 50% in Alaska's remote microgrids without increasing system life cycle costs while also improving overall system reliability, security, and resilience. One goal of the Alaska Microgrid Partnership is to investigate whether a combination of energy efficiency and high-contribution (from renewable energy) power systems can reduce total imported energy usage by 50% while reducing life cycle costs and improving reliability and resiliency. This presentation provides an overview of the following four renewable energy optimizationmore » tools. Information is from respective tool websites, tool developers, and author experience. Distributed Energy Resources Customer Adoption Model (DER-CAM) Microgrid Design Toolkit (MDT) Renewable Energy Optimization (REopt) Tool Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables (HOMER).« less

Are mixed explicit/implicit solvation models reliable for studying phosphate hydrolysis? A comparative study of continuum, explicit and mixed solvation models.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kamerlin, Shina C. L.; Haranczyk, Maciej; Warshel, Arieh

2009-05-01

Phosphate hydrolysis is ubiquitous in biology. However, despite intensive research on this class of reactions, the precise nature of the reaction mechanism remains controversial. In this work, we have examined the hydrolysis of three homologous phosphate diesters. The solvation free energy was simulated by means of either an implicit solvation model (COSMO), hybrid quantum mechanical / molecular mechanical free energy perturbation (QM/MM-FEP) or a mixed solvation model in which N water molecules were explicitly included in the ab initio description of the reacting system (where N=1-3), with the remainder of the solvent being implicitly modelled as a continuum. Here, bothmore » COSMO and QM/MM-FEP reproduce Delta Gobs within an error of about 2kcal/mol. However, we demonstrate that in order to obtain any form of reliable results from a mixed model, it is essential to carefully select the explicit water molecules from short QM/MM runs that act as a model for the true infinite system. Additionally, the mixed models tend to be increasingly inaccurate the more explicit water molecules are placed into the system. Thus, our analysis indicates that this approach provides an unreliable way for modelling phosphate hydrolysis in solution.« less

Projecting technology change to improve space technology planning and systems management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walk, Steven Robert

2011-04-01

Projecting technology performance evolution has been improving over the years. Reliable quantitative forecasting methods have been developed that project the growth, diffusion, and performance of technology in time, including projecting technology substitutions, saturation levels, and performance improvements. These forecasts can be applied at the early stages of space technology planning to better predict available future technology performance, assure the successful selection of technology, and improve technology systems management strategy. Often what is published as a technology forecast is simply scenario planning, usually made by extrapolating current trends into the future, with perhaps some subjective insight added. Typically, the accuracy of such predictions falls rapidly with distance in time. Quantitative technology forecasting (QTF), on the other hand, includes the study of historic data to identify one of or a combination of several recognized universal technology diffusion or substitution patterns. In the same manner that quantitative models of physical phenomena provide excellent predictions of system behavior, so do QTF models provide reliable technological performance trajectories. In practice, a quantitative technology forecast is completed to ascertain with confidence when the projected performance of a technology or system of technologies will occur. Such projections provide reliable time-referenced information when considering cost and performance trade-offs in maintaining, replacing, or migrating a technology, component, or system. This paper introduces various quantitative technology forecasting techniques and illustrates their practical application in space technology and technology systems management.

Definition and Proposed Realization of the International Height Reference System (IHRS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ihde, Johannes; Sánchez, Laura; Barzaghi, Riccardo; Drewes, Hermann; Foerste, Christoph; Gruber, Thomas; Liebsch, Gunter; Marti, Urs; Pail, Roland; Sideris, Michael

2017-05-01

Studying, understanding and modelling global change require geodetic reference frames with an order of accuracy higher than the magnitude of the effects to be actually studied and with high consistency and reliability worldwide. The International Association of Geodesy, taking care of providing a precise geodetic infrastructure for monitoring the Earth system, promotes the implementation of an integrated global geodetic reference frame that provides a reliable frame for consistent analysis and modelling of global phenomena and processes affecting the Earth's gravity field, the Earth's surface geometry and the Earth's rotation. The definition, realization, maintenance and wide utilization of the International Terrestrial Reference System guarantee a globally unified geometric reference frame with an accuracy at the millimetre level. An equivalent high-precision global physical reference frame that supports the reliable description of changes in the Earth's gravity field (such as sea level variations, mass displacements, processes associated with geophysical fluids) is missing. This paper addresses the theoretical foundations supporting the implementation of such a physical reference surface in terms of an International Height Reference System and provides guidance for the coming activities required for the practical and sustainable realization of this system. Based on conceptual approaches of physical geodesy, the requirements for a unified global height reference system are derived. In accordance with the practice, its realization as the International Height Reference Frame is designed. Further steps for the implementation are also proposed.

Reliability and Maintainability Model (RAM): User and Maintenance Manual. Part 2; Improved Supportability Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ebeling, Charles E.

1996-01-01

This report documents the procedures for utilizing and maintaining the Reliability & Maintainability Model (RAM) developed by the University of Dayton for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC). The purpose of the grant is to provide support to NASA in establishing operational and support parameters and costs of proposed space systems. As part of this research objective, the model described here was developed. This Manual updates and supersedes the 1995 RAM User and Maintenance Manual. Changes and enhancements from the 1995 version of the model are primarily a result of the addition of more recent aircraft and shuttle R&M data.

A SINS/SRS/GNS Autonomous Integrated Navigation System Based on Spectral Redshift Velocity Measurements.

PubMed

Wei, Wenhui; Gao, Zhaohui; Gao, Shesheng; Jia, Ke

2018-04-09

In order to meet the requirements of autonomy and reliability for the navigation system, combined with the method of measuring speed by using the spectral redshift information of the natural celestial bodies, a new scheme, consisting of Strapdown Inertial Navigation System (SINS)/Spectral Redshift (SRS)/Geomagnetic Navigation System (GNS), is designed for autonomous integrated navigation systems. The principle of this SINS/SRS/GNS autonomous integrated navigation system is explored, and the corresponding mathematical model is established. Furthermore, a robust adaptive central difference particle filtering algorithm is proposed for this autonomous integrated navigation system. The simulation experiments are conducted and the results show that the designed SINS/SRS/GNS autonomous integrated navigation system possesses good autonomy, strong robustness and high reliability, thus providing a new solution for autonomous navigation technology.

Challenges in Managing Trustworthy Large-scale Digital Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, B. J. K.

2017-12-01

The increased use of large-scale international digital science has opened a number of challenges for managing, handling, using and preserving scientific information. The large volumes of information are driven by three main categories - model outputs including coupled models and ensembles, data products that have been processing to a level of usability, and increasingly heuristically driven data analysis. These data products are increasingly the ones that are usable by the broad communities, and far in excess of the raw instruments data outputs. The data, software and workflows are then shared and replicated to allow broad use at an international scale, which places further demands of infrastructure to support how the information is managed reliably across distributed resources. Users necessarily rely on these underlying "black boxes" so that they are productive to produce new scientific outcomes. The software for these systems depend on computational infrastructure, software interconnected systems, and information capture systems. This ranges from the fundamentals of the reliability of the compute hardware, system software stacks and libraries, and the model software. Due to these complexities and capacity of the infrastructure, there is an increased emphasis of transparency of the approach and robustness of the methods over the full reproducibility. Furthermore, with large volume data management, it is increasingly difficult to store the historical versions of all model and derived data. Instead, the emphasis is on the ability to access the updated products and the reliability by which both previous outcomes are still relevant and can be updated for the new information. We will discuss these challenges and some of the approaches underway that are being used to address these issues.

A 1-D Model of the 4 Bed Molecular Sieve of the Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coker, Robert; Knox, Jim

2015-01-01

Developments to improve system efficiency and reliability for water and carbon dioxide separation systems on crewed vehicles combine sub-scale systems testing and multi-physics simulations. This paper describes the development of COMSOL simulations in support of the Life Support Systems (LSS) project within NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) program. Specifically, we model the 4 Bed Molecular Sieve (4BMS) of the Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) operating on the International Space Station (ISS).

Performance and Reliability of Bonded Interfaces for High-temperature Packaging: Annual Progress Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeVoto, Douglas J.

2017-10-19

As maximum device temperatures approach 200 °Celsius, continuous operation, sintered silver materials promise to maintain bonds at these high temperatures without excessive degradation rates. A detailed characterization of the thermal performance and reliability of sintered silver materials and processes has been initiated for the next year. Future steps in crack modeling include efforts to simulate crack propagation directly using the extended finite element method (X-FEM), a numerical technique that uses the partition of unity method for modeling discontinuities such as cracks in a system.

Evaluation of leaf wetness duration models for operational use in strawberry disease-warning systems in four US states.

PubMed

Montone, Verona O; Fraisse, Clyde W; Peres, Natalia A; Sentelhas, Paulo C; Gleason, Mark; Ellis, Michael; Schnabel, Guido

2016-11-01

Leaf wetness duration (LWD) plays a key role in disease development and is often used as an input in disease-warning systems. LWD is often estimated using mathematical models, since measurement by sensors is rarely available and/or reliable. A strawberry disease-warning system called "Strawberry Advisory System" (SAS) is used by growers in Florida, USA, in deciding when to spray their strawberry fields to control anthracnose and Botrytis fruit rot. Currently, SAS is implemented at six locations, where reliable LWD sensors are deployed. A robust LWD model would facilitate SAS expansion from Florida to other regions where reliable LW sensors are not available. The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of mathematical models to estimate LWD and time of spray recommendations in comparison to on site LWD measurements. Specific objectives were to (i) compare model estimated and observed LWD and resulting differences in timing and number of fungicide spray recommendations, (ii) evaluate the effects of weather station sensors precision on LWD models performance, and (iii) compare LWD models performance across four states in the USA. The LWD models evaluated were the classification and regression tree (CART), dew point depression (DPD), number of hours with relative humidity equal or greater than 90 % (NHRH ≥90 %), and Penman-Monteith (P-M). P-M model was expected to have the lowest errors, since it is a physically based and thus portable model. Indeed, the P-M model estimated LWD most accurately (MAE <2 h) at a weather station with high precision sensors but was the least accurate when lower precision sensors of relative humidity and estimated net radiation (based on solar radiation and temperature) were used (MAE = 3.7 h). The CART model was the most robust for estimating LWD and for advising growers on fungicide-spray timing for anthracnose and Botrytis fruit rot control and is therefore the model we recommend for expanding the strawberry disease warning beyond Florida, to other locations where weather stations may be deployed with lower precision sensors, and net radiation observations are not available.

Evaluation of leaf wetness duration models for operational use in strawberry disease-warning systems in four US states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montone, Verona O.; Fraisse, Clyde W.; Peres, Natalia A.; Sentelhas, Paulo C.; Gleason, Mark; Ellis, Michael; Schnabel, Guido

2016-11-01

Leaf wetness duration (LWD) plays a key role in disease development and is often used as an input in disease-warning systems. LWD is often estimated using mathematical models, since measurement by sensors is rarely available and/or reliable. A strawberry disease-warning system called "Strawberry Advisory System" (SAS) is used by growers in Florida, USA, in deciding when to spray their strawberry fields to control anthracnose and Botrytis fruit rot. Currently, SAS is implemented at six locations, where reliable LWD sensors are deployed. A robust LWD model would facilitate SAS expansion from Florida to other regions where reliable LW sensors are not available. The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of mathematical models to estimate LWD and time of spray recommendations in comparison to on site LWD measurements. Specific objectives were to (i) compare model estimated and observed LWD and resulting differences in timing and number of fungicide spray recommendations, (ii) evaluate the effects of weather station sensors precision on LWD models performance, and (iii) compare LWD models performance across four states in the USA. The LWD models evaluated were the classification and regression tree (CART), dew point depression (DPD), number of hours with relative humidity equal or greater than 90 % (NHRH ≥90 %), and Penman-Monteith (P-M). P-M model was expected to have the lowest errors, since it is a physically based and thus portable model. Indeed, the P-M model estimated LWD most accurately (MAE <2 h) at a weather station with high precision sensors but was the least accurate when lower precision sensors of relative humidity and estimated net radiation (based on solar radiation and temperature) were used (MAE = 3.7 h). The CART model was the most robust for estimating LWD and for advising growers on fungicide-spray timing for anthracnose and Botrytis fruit rot control and is therefore the model we recommend for expanding the strawberry disease warning beyond Florida, to other locations where weather stations may be deployed with lower precision sensors, and net radiation observations are not available.

Scheduling structural health monitoring activities for optimizing life-cycle costs and reliability of wind turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanish Nithin, Anu; Omenzetter, Piotr

2017-04-01

Optimization of the life-cycle costs and reliability of offshore wind turbines (OWTs) is an area of immense interest due to the widespread increase in wind power generation across the world. Most of the existing studies have used structural reliability and the Bayesian pre-posterior analysis for optimization. This paper proposes an extension to the previous approaches in a framework for probabilistic optimization of the total life-cycle costs and reliability of OWTs by combining the elements of structural reliability/risk analysis (SRA), the Bayesian pre-posterior analysis with optimization through a genetic algorithm (GA). The SRA techniques are adopted to compute the probabilities of damage occurrence and failure associated with the deterioration model. The probabilities are used in the decision tree and are updated using the Bayesian analysis. The output of this framework would determine the optimal structural health monitoring and maintenance schedules to be implemented during the life span of OWTs while maintaining a trade-off between the life-cycle costs and risk of the structural failure. Numerical illustrations with a generic deterioration model for one monitoring exercise in the life cycle of a system are demonstrated. Two case scenarios, namely to build initially an expensive and robust or a cheaper but more quickly deteriorating structures and to adopt expensive monitoring system, are presented to aid in the decision-making process.

Production of Reliable Flight Crucial Software: Validation Methods Research for Fault Tolerant Avionics and Control Systems Sub-Working Group Meeting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunham, J. R. (Editor); Knight, J. C. (Editor)

1982-01-01

The state of the art in the production of crucial software for flight control applications was addressed. The association between reliability metrics and software is considered. Thirteen software development projects are discussed. A short term need for research in the areas of tool development and software fault tolerance was indicated. For the long term, research in format verification or proof methods was recommended. Formal specification and software reliability modeling, were recommended as topics for both short and long term research.

Using Model Replication to Improve the Reliability of Agent-Based Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Wei; Kim, Yushim

The basic presupposition of model replication activities for a computational model such as an agent-based model (ABM) is that, as a robust and reliable tool, it must be replicable in other computing settings. This assumption has recently gained attention in the community of artificial society and simulation due to the challenges of model verification and validation. Illustrating the replication of an ABM representing fraudulent behavior in a public service delivery system originally developed in the Java-based MASON toolkit for NetLogo by a different author, this paper exemplifies how model replication exercises provide unique opportunities for model verification and validation process. At the same time, it helps accumulate best practices and patterns of model replication and contributes to the agenda of developing a standard methodological protocol for agent-based social simulation.

Development Status of Low-Shock Payload Separation Mechanism for H-IIA Launch Vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terashima, Keita; Kamita, Toru; Horie, Youichi; Kobayashi, Masakazu; Onikura, Hiroki

2013-09-01

This paper presents the design, analysis and test results of the low-shock payload separation mechanism for the H-IIA launch vehicle. The mechanism is based on a simple and reliable four-bar linkage, which makes the release speed of the marman clamp band tension lower than the current system.The adequacy of the principle for low-shock mechanism was evaluated by some simulations and results of fundamental tests. Then, we established the reliability design model of this mechanism, and the adequacy of this model was evaluated by elemental tests.Finally, we conducted the system separation tests using the payload adapter to which the mechanism was assembled, to confirm that the actual separation shock level satisfied our target.

Reliability Quantification of Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shah, Ashwin R.; Korovaichuk, Igor; Zampino, Edward

2010-01-01

The Advanced Stirling Convertor, is intended to provide power for an unmanned planetary spacecraft and has an operational life requirement of 17 years. Over this 17 year mission, the ASC must provide power with desired performance and efficiency and require no corrective maintenance. Reliability demonstration testing for the ASC was found to be very limited due to schedule and resource constraints. Reliability demonstration must involve the application of analysis, system and component level testing, and simulation models, taken collectively. Therefore, computer simulation with limited test data verification is a viable approach to assess the reliability of ASC components. This approach is based on physics-of-failure mechanisms and involves the relationship among the design variables based on physics, mechanics, material behavior models, interaction of different components and their respective disciplines such as structures, materials, fluid, thermal, mechanical, electrical, etc. In addition, these models are based on the available test data, which can be updated, and analysis refined as more data and information becomes available. The failure mechanisms and causes of failure are included in the analysis, especially in light of the new information, in order to develop guidelines to improve design reliability and better operating controls to reduce the probability of failure. Quantified reliability assessment based on fundamental physical behavior of components and their relationship with other components has demonstrated itself to be a superior technique to conventional reliability approaches based on utilizing failure rates derived from similar equipment or simply expert judgment.

ASSIST - THE ABSTRACT SEMI-MARKOV SPECIFICATION INTERFACE TO THE SURE TOOL PROGRAM (SUN VERSION)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, S. C.

1994-01-01

ASSIST, the Abstract Semi-Markov Specification Interface to the SURE Tool program, is an interface that will enable reliability engineers to accurately design large semi-Markov models. The user describes the failure behavior of a fault-tolerant computer system in an abstract, high-level language. The ASSIST program then automatically generates a corresponding semi-Markov model. The abstract language allows efficient description of large, complex systems; a one-page ASSIST-language description may result in a semi-Markov model with thousands of states and transitions. The ASSIST program also includes model-reduction techniques to facilitate efficient modeling of large systems. Instead of listing the individual states of the Markov model, reliability engineers can specify the rules governing the behavior of a system, and these are used to automatically generate the model. ASSIST reads an input file describing the failure behavior of a system in an abstract language and generates a Markov model in the format needed for input to SURE, the semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator program, and PAWS/STEM, the Pade Approximation with Scaling program and Scaled Taylor Exponential Matrix. A Markov model consists of a number of system states and transitions between them. Each state in the model represents a possible state of the system in terms of which components have failed, which ones have been removed, etc. Within ASSIST, each state is defined by a state vector, where each element of the vector takes on an integer value within a defined range. An element can represent any meaningful characteristic, such as the number of working components of one type in the system, or the number of faulty components of another type in use. Statements representing transitions between states in the model have three parts: a condition expression, a destination expression, and a rate expression. The first expression is a Boolean expression describing the state space variable values of states for which the transition is valid. The second expression defines the destination state for the transition in terms of state space variable values. The third expression defines the distribution of elapsed time for the transition. The mathematical approach chosen to solve a reliability problem may vary with the size and nature of the problem. Although different solution techniques are utilized on different programs, it is possible to have a common input language. The Systems Validation Methods group at NASA Langley Research Center has created a set of programs that form the basis for a reliability analysis workstation. The set of programs are: SURE reliability analysis program (COSMIC program LAR-13789, LAR-14921); the ASSIST specification interface program (LAR-14193, LAR-14923), PAWS/STEM reliability analysis programs (LAR-14165, LAR-14920); and the FTC fault tree tool (LAR-14586, LAR-14922). FTC is used to calculate the top-event probability for a fault tree. PAWS/STEM and SURE are programs which interpret the same SURE language, but utilize different solution methods. ASSIST is a preprocessor that generates SURE language from a more abstract definition. SURE, ASSIST, and PAWS/STEM are also offered as a bundle. Please see the abstract for COS-10039/COS-10041, SARA - SURE/ASSIST Reliability Analysis Workstation, for pricing details. ASSIST was originally developed for DEC VAX series computers running VMS and was later ported for use on Sun computers running SunOS. The VMS version (LAR14193) is written in C-language and can be compiled with the VAX C compiler. The standard distribution medium for the VMS version of ASSIST is a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in VMSINSTAL format. It is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in VMSINSTAL format. Executables are included. The Sun version (LAR14923) is written in ANSI C-language. An ANSI compliant C compiler is required in order to compile this package. The standard distribution medium for the Sun version of ASSIST is a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. Both Sun3 and Sun4 executables are included. Electronic copies of the documentation in PostScript, TeX, and DVI formats are provided on the distribution medium. (The VMS distribution lacks the .DVI format files, however.) ASSIST was developed in 1986 and last updated in 1992. DEC, VAX, VMS, and TK50 are trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. SunOS, Sun3, and Sun4 are trademarks of Sun Microsystems, Inc. UNIX is a registered trademark of AT&T Bell Laboratories.

ASSIST - THE ABSTRACT SEMI-MARKOV SPECIFICATION INTERFACE TO THE SURE TOOL PROGRAM (VAX VMS VERSION)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, S. C.

1994-01-01

ASSIST, the Abstract Semi-Markov Specification Interface to the SURE Tool program, is an interface that will enable reliability engineers to accurately design large semi-Markov models. The user describes the failure behavior of a fault-tolerant computer system in an abstract, high-level language. The ASSIST program then automatically generates a corresponding semi-Markov model. The abstract language allows efficient description of large, complex systems; a one-page ASSIST-language description may result in a semi-Markov model with thousands of states and transitions. The ASSIST program also includes model-reduction techniques to facilitate efficient modeling of large systems. Instead of listing the individual states of the Markov model, reliability engineers can specify the rules governing the behavior of a system, and these are used to automatically generate the model. ASSIST reads an input file describing the failure behavior of a system in an abstract language and generates a Markov model in the format needed for input to SURE, the semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator program, and PAWS/STEM, the Pade Approximation with Scaling program and Scaled Taylor Exponential Matrix. A Markov model consists of a number of system states and transitions between them. Each state in the model represents a possible state of the system in terms of which components have failed, which ones have been removed, etc. Within ASSIST, each state is defined by a state vector, where each element of the vector takes on an integer value within a defined range. An element can represent any meaningful characteristic, such as the number of working components of one type in the system, or the number of faulty components of another type in use. Statements representing transitions between states in the model have three parts: a condition expression, a destination expression, and a rate expression. The first expression is a Boolean expression describing the state space variable values of states for which the transition is valid. The second expression defines the destination state for the transition in terms of state space variable values. The third expression defines the distribution of elapsed time for the transition. The mathematical approach chosen to solve a reliability problem may vary with the size and nature of the problem. Although different solution techniques are utilized on different programs, it is possible to have a common input language. The Systems Validation Methods group at NASA Langley Research Center has created a set of programs that form the basis for a reliability analysis workstation. The set of programs are: SURE reliability analysis program (COSMIC program LAR-13789, LAR-14921); the ASSIST specification interface program (LAR-14193, LAR-14923), PAWS/STEM reliability analysis programs (LAR-14165, LAR-14920); and the FTC fault tree tool (LAR-14586, LAR-14922). FTC is used to calculate the top-event probability for a fault tree. PAWS/STEM and SURE are programs which interpret the same SURE language, but utilize different solution methods. ASSIST is a preprocessor that generates SURE language from a more abstract definition. SURE, ASSIST, and PAWS/STEM are also offered as a bundle. Please see the abstract for COS-10039/COS-10041, SARA - SURE/ASSIST Reliability Analysis Workstation, for pricing details. ASSIST was originally developed for DEC VAX series computers running VMS and was later ported for use on Sun computers running SunOS. The VMS version (LAR14193) is written in C-language and can be compiled with the VAX C compiler. The standard distribution medium for the VMS version of ASSIST is a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in VMSINSTAL format. It is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in VMSINSTAL format. Executables are included. The Sun version (LAR14923) is written in ANSI C-language. An ANSI compliant C compiler is required in order to compile this package. The standard distribution medium for the Sun version of ASSIST is a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. Both Sun3 and Sun4 executables are included. Electronic copies of the documentation in PostScript, TeX, and DVI formats are provided on the distribution medium. (The VMS distribution lacks the .DVI format files, however.) ASSIST was developed in 1986 and last updated in 1992. DEC, VAX, VMS, and TK50 are trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. SunOS, Sun3, and Sun4 are trademarks of Sun Microsystems, Inc. UNIX is a registered trademark of AT&T Bell Laboratories.

Test Platforms for Model-Based Flight Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorobantu, Andrei

Demonstrating the reliability of flight control algorithms is critical to integrating unmanned aircraft systems into the civilian airspace. For many potential applications, design and certification of these algorithms will rely heavily on mathematical models of the aircraft dynamics. Therefore, the aerospace community must develop flight test platforms to support the advancement of model-based techniques. The University of Minnesota has developed a test platform dedicated to model-based flight research for unmanned aircraft systems. This thesis provides an overview of the test platform and its research activities in the areas of system identification, model validation, and closed-loop control for small unmanned aircraft.

Multi-objective optimization of GENIE Earth system models.

PubMed

Price, Andrew R; Myerscough, Richard J; Voutchkov, Ivan I; Marsh, Robert; Cox, Simon J

2009-07-13

The tuning of parameters in climate models is essential to provide reliable long-term forecasts of Earth system behaviour. We apply a multi-objective optimization algorithm to the problem of parameter estimation in climate models. This optimization process involves the iterative evaluation of response surface models (RSMs), followed by the execution of multiple Earth system simulations. These computations require an infrastructure that provides high-performance computing for building and searching the RSMs and high-throughput computing for the concurrent evaluation of a large number of models. Grid computing technology is therefore essential to make this algorithm practical for members of the GENIE project.

A stochastic method for stand-alone photovoltaic system sizing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cabral, Claudia Valeria Tavora; Filho, Delly Oliveira; Martins, Jose Helvecio

Photovoltaic systems utilize solar energy to generate electrical energy to meet load demands. Optimal sizing of these systems includes the characterization of solar radiation. Solar radiation at the Earth's surface has random characteristics and has been the focus of various academic studies. The objective of this study was to stochastically analyze parameters involved in the sizing of photovoltaic generators and develop a methodology for sizing of stand-alone photovoltaic systems. Energy storage for isolated systems and solar radiation were analyzed stochastically due to their random behavior. For the development of the methodology proposed stochastic analysis were studied including the Markov chainmore » and beta probability density function. The obtained results were compared with those for sizing of stand-alone using from the Sandia method (deterministic), in which the stochastic model presented more reliable values. Both models present advantages and disadvantages; however, the stochastic one is more complex and provides more reliable and realistic results. (author)« less

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) for select space propulsion system components, part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

The technical effort and computer code enhancements performed during the sixth year of the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods program are summarized. Various capabilities are described to probabilistically combine structural response and structural resistance to compute component reliability. A library of structural resistance models is implemented in the Numerical Evaluations of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) code that included fatigue, fracture, creep, multi-factor interaction, and other important effects. In addition, a user interface was developed for user-defined resistance models. An accurate and efficient reliability method was developed and was successfully implemented in the NESSUS code to compute component reliability based on user-selected response and resistance models. A risk module was developed to compute component risk with respect to cost, performance, or user-defined criteria. The new component risk assessment capabilities were validated and demonstrated using several examples. Various supporting methodologies were also developed in support of component risk assessment.

A flexible count data regression model for risk analysis.

PubMed

Guikema, Seth D; Coffelt, Jeremy P; Goffelt, Jeremy P

2008-02-01

In many cases, risk and reliability analyses involve estimating the probabilities of discrete events such as hardware failures and occurrences of disease or death. There is often additional information in the form of explanatory variables that can be used to help estimate the likelihood of different numbers of events in the future through the use of an appropriate regression model, such as a generalized linear model. However, existing generalized linear models (GLM) are limited in their ability to handle the types of variance structures often encountered in using count data in risk and reliability analysis. In particular, standard models cannot handle both underdispersed data (variance less than the mean) and overdispersed data (variance greater than the mean) in a single coherent modeling framework. This article presents a new GLM based on a reformulation of the Conway-Maxwell Poisson (COM) distribution that is useful for both underdispersed and overdispersed count data and demonstrates this model by applying it to the assessment of electric power system reliability. The results show that the proposed COM GLM can provide as good of fits to data as the commonly used existing models for overdispered data sets while outperforming these commonly used models for underdispersed data sets.